Monitoring risk-adjusted outcomes in congenital heart surgery: does the appropriateness of a risk model change with time?

PubMed

Tsang, Victor T; Brown, Katherine L; Synnergren, Mats Johanssen; Kang, Nicholas; de Leval, Marc R; Gallivan, Steve; Utley, Martin

2009-02-01

Risk adjustment of outcomes in pediatric congenital heart surgery is challenging due to the great diversity in diagnoses and procedures. We have previously shown that variable life-adjusted display (VLAD) charts provide an effective graphic display of risk-adjusted outcomes in this specialty. A question arises as to whether the risk model used remains appropriate over time. We used a recently developed graphic technique to evaluate the performance of an existing risk model among those patients at a single center during 2000 to 2003 originally used in model development. We then compared the distribution of predicted risk among these patients with that among patients in 2004 to 2006. Finally, we constructed a VLAD chart of risk-adjusted outcomes for the latter period. Among 1083 patients between April 2000 and March 2003, the risk model performed well at predicted risks above 3%, underestimated mortality at 2% to 3% predicted risk, and overestimated mortality below 2% predicted risk. There was little difference in the distribution of predicted risk among these patients and among 903 patients between June 2004 and October 2006. Outcomes for the more recent period were appreciably better than those expected according to the risk model. This finding cannot be explained by any apparent bias in the risk model combined with changes in case-mix. Risk models can, and hopefully do, become out of date. There is scope for complacency in the risk-adjusted audit if the risk model used is not regularly recalibrated to reflect changing standards and expectations.

Optimizing ACS NSQIP modeling for evaluation of surgical quality and risk: patient risk adjustment, procedure mix adjustment, shrinkage adjustment, and surgical focus.

PubMed

Cohen, Mark E; Ko, Clifford Y; Bilimoria, Karl Y; Zhou, Lynn; Huffman, Kristopher; Wang, Xue; Liu, Yaoming; Kraemer, Kari; Meng, Xiangju; Merkow, Ryan; Chow, Warren; Matel, Brian; Richards, Karen; Hart, Amy J; Dimick, Justin B; Hall, Bruce L

2013-08-01

The American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS NSQIP) collects detailed clinical data from participating hospitals using standardized data definitions, analyzes these data, and provides participating hospitals with reports that permit risk-adjusted comparisons with a surgical quality standard. Since its inception, the ACS NSQIP has worked to refine surgical outcomes measurements and enhance statistical methods to improve the reliability and validity of this hospital profiling. From an original focus on controlling for between-hospital differences in patient risk factors with logistic regression, ACS NSQIP has added a variable to better adjust for the complexity and risk profile of surgical procedures (procedure mix adjustment) and stabilized estimates derived from small samples by using a hierarchical model with shrinkage adjustment. New models have been developed focusing on specific surgical procedures (eg, "Procedure Targeted" models), which provide opportunities to incorporate indication and other procedure-specific variables and outcomes to improve risk adjustment. In addition, comparative benchmark reports given to participating hospitals have been expanded considerably to allow more detailed evaluations of performance. Finally, procedures have been developed to estimate surgical risk for individual patients. This article describes the development of, and justification for, these new statistical methods and reporting strategies in ACS NSQIP. Copyright © 2013 American College of Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Reliability of risk-adjusted outcomes for profiling hospital surgical quality.

PubMed

Krell, Robert W; Hozain, Ahmed; Kao, Lillian S; Dimick, Justin B

2014-05-01

Quality improvement platforms commonly use risk-adjusted morbidity and mortality to profile hospital performance. However, given small hospital caseloads and low event rates for some procedures, it is unclear whether these outcomes reliably reflect hospital performance. To determine the reliability of risk-adjusted morbidity and mortality for hospital performance profiling using clinical registry data. A retrospective cohort study was conducted using data from the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program, 2009. Participants included all patients (N = 55,466) who underwent colon resection, pancreatic resection, laparoscopic gastric bypass, ventral hernia repair, abdominal aortic aneurysm repair, and lower extremity bypass. Outcomes included risk-adjusted overall morbidity, severe morbidity, and mortality. We assessed reliability (0-1 scale: 0, completely unreliable; and 1, perfectly reliable) for all 3 outcomes. We also quantified the number of hospitals meeting minimum acceptable reliability thresholds (>0.70, good reliability; and >0.50, fair reliability) for each outcome. For overall morbidity, the most common outcome studied, the mean reliability depended on sample size (ie, how high the hospital caseload was) and the event rate (ie, how frequently the outcome occurred). For example, mean reliability for overall morbidity was low for abdominal aortic aneurysm repair (reliability, 0.29; sample size, 25 cases per year; and event rate, 18.3%). In contrast, mean reliability for overall morbidity was higher for colon resection (reliability, 0.61; sample size, 114 cases per year; and event rate, 26.8%). Colon resection (37.7% of hospitals), pancreatic resection (7.1% of hospitals), and laparoscopic gastric bypass (11.5% of hospitals) were the only procedures for which any hospitals met a reliability threshold of 0.70 for overall morbidity. Because severe morbidity and mortality are less frequent outcomes, their mean

Stroke outcomes measures must be appropriately risk adjusted to ensure quality care of patients: a presidential advisory from the American Heart Association/American Stroke Association.

PubMed

Fonarow, Gregg C; Alberts, Mark J; Broderick, Joseph P; Jauch, Edward C; Kleindorfer, Dawn O; Saver, Jeffrey L; Solis, Penelope; Suter, Robert; Schwamm, Lee H

2014-05-01

Because stroke is among the leading causes of death, disability, hospitalizations, and healthcare expenditures in the United States, there is interest in reporting outcomes for patients hospitalized with acute ischemic stroke. The American Heart Association/American Stroke Association, as part of its commitment to promote high-quality, evidence-based care for cardiovascular and stroke patients, fully supports the development of properly risk-adjusted outcome measures for stroke. To accurately assess and report hospital-level outcomes, adequate risk adjustment for case mix is essential. During the development of the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services 30-day stroke mortality and 30-day stroke readmission measures, concerns were expressed that these measures were not adequately designed because they do not include a valid initial stroke severity measure, such as the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale. These outcome measures, as currently constructed, may be prone to mischaracterizing the quality of stroke care being delivered by hospitals and may ultimately harm acute ischemic stroke patients. This article details (1) why the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services acute ischemic stroke outcome measures in their present form may not provide adequate risk adjustment, (2) why the measures as currently designed may lead to inaccurate representation of hospital performance and have the potential for serious unintended consequences, (3) what activities the American Heart Association/American Stroke Association has engaged in to highlight these concerns to the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services and other interested parties, and (4) alternative approaches and opportunities that should be considered for more accurately risk-adjusting 30-day outcomes measures in patients with ischemic stroke.

Risk-adjusted clinical outcomes in patients enrolled in a bloodless program

PubMed Central

Frank, Steven M.; Wick, Elizabeth C.; Dezern, Amy E.; Ness, Paul M.; Wasey, Jack O.; Pippa, Andrew C.; Dackiw, Elizabeth; Resar, Linda M.S.

2014-01-01

BACKGROUND Although clinical outcomes have been reported for patients who do not accept allogeneic blood transfusion (ABT), many previous studies lack a control group, fail to use risk adjustment, and focus exclusively on cardiac surgery. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS We report a risk-adjusted, propensity score–matched, retrospective case-control study of clinical outcomes for inpatients who did not accept ABT (bloodless, n = 294) and those who did accept ABT (control, n = 1157). Multidisciplinary specialized care was rendered to the bloodless patients to conserve blood and optimize clinical outcomes. Differences in hemoglobin (Hb), mortality, five morbid outcomes, and hospital charges and costs were compared. Subgroups of medical and surgical patients were analyzed, and independent predictors of outcome were determined by multivariate analysis. RESULTS Overall, mortality was lower in the bloodless group (0.7%) than in the control group (2.7%; p = 0.046), primarily attributed to the surgical subgroup. After risk adjustment, bloodless care was not an independent predictor of the composite adverse outcome (death or any morbid event; p = 0.91; odds ratio, 1.02; 95% confidence interval, 0.68–1.53). Discharge Hb concentrations were similar in the bloodless (10.8 ± 2.7 g/dL) and control (10.9 ± 2.3 g/dL) groups (p = 0.42). Total and direct hospital costs were 12% (p = 0.02) and 18% (p = 0.02) less, respectively, in the bloodless patients, a difference attributed to the surgical subgroup. CONCLUSIONS Using appropriate blood conservation measures for patients who do not accept ABT results in similar or better outcomes and is associated with equivalent or lower costs. This specialized care may be beneficial even for those patients who accept ABT. PMID:24942198

Improved implementation of the risk-adjusted Bernoulli CUSUM chart to monitor surgical outcome quality.

PubMed

Keefe, Matthew J; Loda, Justin B; Elhabashy, Ahmad E; Woodall, William H

2017-06-01

The traditional implementation of the risk-adjusted Bernoulli cumulative sum (CUSUM) chart for monitoring surgical outcome quality requires waiting a pre-specified period of time after surgery before incorporating patient outcome information. We propose a simple but powerful implementation of the risk-adjusted Bernoulli CUSUM chart that incorporates outcome information as soon as it is available, rather than waiting a pre-specified period of time after surgery. A simulation study is presented that compares the performance of the traditional implementation of the risk-adjusted Bernoulli CUSUM chart to our improved implementation. We show that incorporating patient outcome information as soon as it is available leads to quicker detection of process deterioration. Deterioration of surgical performance could be detected much sooner using our proposed implementation, which could lead to the earlier identification of problems. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press in association with the International Society for Quality in Health Care. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

Risk-adjusted outcome prediction with initial post-cardiac arrest illness severity: implications for cardiac arrest survivors being considered for early invasive strategy.

PubMed

Reynolds, Joshua C; Rittenberger, Jon C; Toma, Catalin; Callaway, Clifton W

2014-09-01

Early CATH is recommended for cardiac arrest survivors with STEMI or suspicion for coronary ischemia. Comatose patients are at risk of death from neurologic injury irrespective of CATH, but post-procedural mortality data do not distinguish between causes of death. Pittsburgh Post Cardiac Arrest Category (PCAC) is a validated, early post-cardiac arrest illness severity score based on initial cardiopulmonary dysfunction and neurologic examination. We evaluated the association between early coronary angiography (CATH) and patient outcome after adjusting for initial post-cardiac arrest illness severity. Retrospective study of a prospective cardiac arrest database at a single site. We included 1011 adult survivors of non-traumatic in-hospital or out-of-hospital cardiac arrest from 2005 to 2012, then stratified by PCAC and immediate CATH. Logistic regression tested the association between immediate CATH and patient outcomes, adjusting for PCAC. Overall, 273 (27%) received immediate CATH. Patients with immediate CATH had higher proportions of good outcome in all but the most severe stratum of illness severity (11% vs. 6%; p=0.11). The primary mode of death was neurologic for all but the least severe stratum. Adjusting for PCAC, immediate CATH was associated with favorable discharge disposition (OR 1.92; 95%CI 1.20, 3.07; p=0.006) and modified Rankin scale (OR 1.95; 95%CI 1.12, 3.38; p=0.02). The benefit of CATH is less clear in the most severe stratum of illness, in which the high risk of mortality is primarily from neurologic causes. PCAC is a risk-stratification tool that provides pre-procedural risk-adjusted outcome prediction for post-cardiac arrest patients being evaluated for immediate CATH. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk adjusted surgical audit in gynaecological oncology: P-POSSUM does not predict outcome.

PubMed

Das, N; Talaat, A S; Naik, R; Lopes, A D; Godfrey, K A; Hatem, M H; Edmondson, R J

2006-12-01

To assess the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enumeration of mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) and its validity for use in gynaecological oncology surgery. All patients undergoing gynaecological oncology surgery at the Northern Gynaecological Oncology Centre (NGOC) Gateshead, UK over a period of 12months (2002-2003) were assessed prospectively. Mortality and morbidity predictions using the Portsmouth modification of the POSSUM algorithm (P-POSSUM) were compared to the actual outcomes. Performance of the model was also evaluated using the Hosmer and Lemeshow Chi square statistic (testing the goodness of fit). During this period 468 patients were assessed. The P-POSSUM appeared to over predict mortality rates for our patients. It predicted a 7% mortality rate for our patients compared to an observed rate of 2% (35 predicted deaths in comparison to 10 observed deaths), a difference that was statistically significant (H&L chi(2)=542.9, d.f. 8, p<0.05). The P-POSSUM algorithm overestimates the risk of mortality for gynaecological oncology patients undergoing surgery. The P-POSSUM algorithm will require further adjustments prior to adoption for gynaecological cancer surgery as a risk adjusted surgical audit tool.

Real time monitoring of risk-adjusted paediatric cardiac surgery outcomes using variable life-adjusted display: implementation in three UK centres

PubMed Central

Pagel, Christina; Utley, Martin; Crowe, Sonya; Witter, Thomas; Anderson, David; Samson, Ray; McLean, Andrew; Banks, Victoria; Tsang, Victor; Brown, Katherine

2013-01-01

Objective To implement routine in-house monitoring of risk-adjusted 30-day mortality following paediatric cardiac surgery. Design Collaborative monitoring software development and implementation in three specialist centres. Patients and methods Analyses incorporated 2 years of data routinely audited by the National Institute of Cardiac Outcomes Research (NICOR). Exclusion criteria were patients over 16 or undergoing non-cardiac or only catheter procedures. We applied the partial risk adjustment in surgery (PRAiS) risk model for death within 30 days following surgery and generated variable life-adjusted display (VLAD) charts for each centre. These were shared with each clinical team and feedback was sought. Results Participating centres were Great Ormond Street Hospital, Evelina Children's Hospital and The Royal Hospital for Sick Children in Glasgow. Data captured all procedures performed between 1 January 2010 and 31 December 2011. This incorporated 2490 30-day episodes of care, 66 of which were associated with a death within 30 days.The VLAD charts generated for each centre displayed trends in outcomes benchmarked to recent national outcomes. All centres ended the 2-year period within four deaths from what would be expected. The VLAD charts were shared in multidisciplinary meetings and clinical teams reported that they were a useful addition to existing quality assurance initiatives. Each centre is continuing to use the prototype software to monitor their in-house surgical outcomes. Conclusions Timely and routine monitoring of risk-adjusted mortality following paediatric cardiac surgery is feasible. Close liaison with hospital data managers as well as clinicians was crucial to the success of the project. PMID:23564473

[Health-based risk adjustment. Effects and side effects].

PubMed

Jahn, R; Schillo, S; Wasem, J

2012-05-01

Numerous health systems have introduced competition between health plans while banning risk-rated premiums. Risk adjustment for health plans is introduced to reduce incentives for risk selection and to create incentives for health plans to permanently invest in care for the chronically ill. According to the international health economics state of the art, risk adjustment in the German social health insurance system has used information on health status (measured by diagnoses and drug prescriptions) on top of demographic information since 2009. In non-competitive health care systems similar mechanisms are sometimes established, e.g. to achieve an equitable distribution of resources between regions. An evaluation of the first year of health-based risk adjustment demonstrates a superior performance in comparison to the old, demographic risk adjustment. The old risk adjustment formula (without ex post high-cost pooling) showed R(2) of 5.8%, CPM of 10.4% and MAPE of 2,226 €, in contrast to the new health status-based risk adjustment formula (without cash benefit for sick allowance) which reaches R(2) 20.2%, CPM 22.5% and MAPE 1,817 €. However, to make competition between health plans functional for improvement of quality and efficiency of health care, health plans must be granted additional instruments to act as prudent buyers of health care.

A Machine Learning Framework for Plan Payment Risk Adjustment.

PubMed

Rose, Sherri

2016-12-01

To introduce cross-validation and a nonparametric machine learning framework for plan payment risk adjustment and then assess whether they have the potential to improve risk adjustment. 2011-2012 Truven MarketScan database. We compare the performance of multiple statistical approaches within a broad machine learning framework for estimation of risk adjustment formulas. Total annual expenditure was predicted using age, sex, geography, inpatient diagnoses, and hierarchical condition category variables. The methods included regression, penalized regression, decision trees, neural networks, and an ensemble super learner, all in concert with screening algorithms that reduce the set of variables considered. The performance of these methods was compared based on cross-validated R 2 . Our results indicate that a simplified risk adjustment formula selected via this nonparametric framework maintains much of the efficiency of a traditional larger formula. The ensemble approach also outperformed classical regression and all other algorithms studied. The implementation of cross-validated machine learning techniques provides novel insight into risk adjustment estimation, possibly allowing for a simplified formula, thereby reducing incentives for increased coding intensity as well as the ability of insurers to "game" the system with aggressive diagnostic upcoding. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

45 CFR 153.620 - Compliance with risk adjustment standards.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... with risk adjustment standards. (a) Issuer support of data validation. An issuer that offers risk adjustment covered plans must comply with any data validation requests by the State or HHS on behalf of the... must retain any information requested to support risk adjustment data validation for a period of at...

45 CFR 153.620 - Compliance with risk adjustment standards.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... with risk adjustment standards. (a) Issuer support of data validation. An issuer that offers risk adjustment covered plans must comply with any data validation requests by the State or HHS on behalf of the... must retain any information requested to support risk adjustment data validation for a period of at...

Development of a diagnosis- and procedure-based risk model for 30-day outcome after pediatric cardiac surgery.

PubMed

Crowe, Sonya; Brown, Kate L; Pagel, Christina; Muthialu, Nagarajan; Cunningham, David; Gibbs, John; Bull, Catherine; Franklin, Rodney; Utley, Martin; Tsang, Victor T

2013-05-01

The study objective was to develop a risk model incorporating diagnostic information to adjust for case-mix severity during routine monitoring of outcomes for pediatric cardiac surgery. Data from the Central Cardiac Audit Database for all pediatric cardiac surgery procedures performed in the United Kingdom between 2000 and 2010 were included: 70% for model development and 30% for validation. Units of analysis were 30-day episodes after the first surgical procedure. We used logistic regression for 30-day mortality. Risk factors considered included procedural information based on Central Cardiac Audit Database "specific procedures," diagnostic information defined by 24 "primary" cardiac diagnoses and "univentricular" status, and other patient characteristics. Of the 27,140 30-day episodes in the development set, 25,613 were survivals, 834 were deaths, and 693 were of unknown status (mortality, 3.2%). The risk model includes procedure, cardiac diagnosis, univentricular status, age band (neonate, infant, child), continuous age, continuous weight, presence of non-Down syndrome comorbidity, bypass, and year of operation 2007 or later (because of decreasing mortality). A risk score was calculated for 95% of cases in the validation set (weight missing in 5%). The model discriminated well; the C-index for validation set was 0.77 (0.81 for post-2007 data). Removal of all but procedural information gave a reduced C-index of 0.72. The model performed well across the spectrum of predicted risk, but there was evidence of underestimation of mortality risk in neonates undergoing operation from 2007. The risk model performs well. Diagnostic information added useful discriminatory power. A future application is risk adjustment during routine monitoring of outcomes in the United Kingdom to assist quality assurance. Copyright © 2013 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Desirability of Outcome Ranking (DOOR) and Response Adjusted for Duration of Antibiotic Risk (RADAR).

PubMed

Evans, Scott R; Rubin, Daniel; Follmann, Dean; Pennello, Gene; Huskins, W Charles; Powers, John H; Schoenfeld, David; Chuang-Stein, Christy; Cosgrove, Sara E; Fowler, Vance G; Lautenbach, Ebbing; Chambers, Henry F

2015-09-01

Clinical trials that compare strategies to optimize antibiotic use are of critical importance but are limited by competing risks that distort outcome interpretation, complexities of noninferiority trials, large sample sizes, and inadequate evaluation of benefits and harms at the patient level. The Antibacterial Resistance Leadership Group strives to overcome these challenges through innovative trial design. Response adjusted for duration of antibiotic risk (RADAR) is a novel methodology utilizing a superiority design and a 2-step process: (1) categorizing patients into an overall clinical outcome (based on benefits and harms), and (2) ranking patients with respect to a desirability of outcome ranking (DOOR). DOORs are constructed by assigning higher ranks to patients with (1) better overall clinical outcomes and (2) shorter durations of antibiotic use for similar overall clinical outcomes. DOOR distributions are compared between antibiotic use strategies. The probability that a randomly selected patient will have a better DOOR if assigned to the new strategy is estimated. DOOR/RADAR represents a new paradigm in assessing the risks and benefits of new strategies to optimize antibiotic use. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Outcomes for youth residential treatment programs using administrative data from the child welfare system: a risk-adjustment application.

PubMed

McMillen, J Curtis; Lee, Bethany R; Jonson-Reid, Melissa

2008-05-01

This study assessed whether administrative data from the public child welfare system could be used to develop risk-adjusted performance reports for residential mental health programs for adolescents. Regression methods were used with 3,759 residential treatment spells for 2,784 children and youth to determine which outcomes could be adequately risk adjusted for case mix. Expected outcomes were created for each residential program given its case mix; then, expected and achieved outcomes were compared. For most programs, achieved results did not differ significantly from expected results for individual outcomes. Overall, outcomes achieved were not impressive. Only one quarter of spells resulted in a youth being maintained in a single less restrictive setting in the year following discharge. Methodological implications of this study suggest further refinements are needed for child welfare administrative data in order to develop risk-adjusted report cards of program performance.

42 CFR 422.310 - Risk adjustment data.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... include financial penalties for failure to submit complete data. (e) Validation of risk adjustment data... records for the validation of risk adjustment data, as required by CMS. There may be penalties for... the prior December 31. (2) CMS allows a reconciliation process to account for late data submissions...

42 CFR 422.310 - Risk adjustment data.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... include financial penalties for failure to submit complete data. (e) Validation of risk adjustment data... records for the validation of risk adjustment data, as required by CMS. There may be penalties for... the prior December 31. (2) CMS allows a reconciliation process to account for late data submissions...

Development and validation of the Surgical Outcome Risk Tool (SORT)

PubMed Central

Protopapa, K L; Simpson, J C; Smith, N C E; Moonesinghe, S R

2014-01-01

Background Existing risk stratification tools have limitations and clinical experience suggests they are not used routinely. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a preoperative risk stratification tool to predict 30-day mortality after non-cardiac surgery in adults by analysis of data from the observational National Confidential Enquiry into Patient Outcome and Death (NCEPOD) Knowing the Risk study. Methods The data set was split into derivation and validation cohorts. Logistic regression was used to construct a model in the derivation cohort to create the Surgical Outcome Risk Tool (SORT), which was tested in the validation cohort. Results Prospective data for 19 097 cases in 326 hospitals were obtained from the NCEPOD study. Following exclusion of 2309, details of 16 788 patients were analysed (derivation cohort 11 219, validation cohort 5569). A model of 45 risk factors was refined on repeated regression analyses to develop a model comprising six variables: American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status (ASA-PS) grade, urgency of surgery (expedited, urgent, immediate), high-risk surgical specialty (gastrointestinal, thoracic, vascular), surgical severity (from minor to complex major), cancer and age 65 years or over. In the validation cohort, the SORT was well calibrated and demonstrated better discrimination than the ASA-PS and Surgical Risk Scale; areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve were 0·91 (95 per cent c.i. 0·88 to 0·94), 0·87 (0·84 to 0·91) and 0·88 (0·84 to 0·92) respectively (P < 0·001). Conclusion The SORT allows rapid and simple data entry of six preoperative variables, and provides a percentage mortality risk for individuals undergoing surgery. PMID:25388883

Health-Based Capitation Risk Adjustment in Minnesota Public Health Care Programs

PubMed Central

Gifford, Gregory A.; Edwards, Kevan R.; Knutson, David J.

2004-01-01

This article documents the history and implementation of health-based capitation risk adjustment in Minnesota public health care programs, and identifies key implementation issues. Capitation payments in these programs are risk adjusted using an historical, health plan risk score, based on concurrent risk assessment. Phased implementation of capitation risk adjustment for these programs began January 1, 2000. Minnesota's experience with capitation risk adjustment suggests that: (1) implementation can accelerate encounter data submission, (2) administrative decisions made during implementation can create issues that impact payment model performance, and (3) changes in diagnosis data management during implementation may require changes to the payment model. PMID:25372356

The cataract national data set electronic multi-centre audit of 55,567 operations: case-mix adjusted surgeon's outcomes for posterior capsule rupture.

PubMed

Sparrow, J M; Taylor, H; Qureshi, K; Smith, R; Johnston, R L

2011-08-01

To develop a methodology for case-mix adjustment of surgical outcomes for individual cataract surgeons using electronically collected multi-centre data conforming to the cataract national data set (CND). Routinely collected anonymised data were remotely extracted from electronic patient record (EPR) systems in 12 participating NHS Trusts undertaking cataract surgery. Following data checks and cleaning, analyses were carried out to risk adjust outcomes for posterior capsule rupture rates for individual surgeons, with stratification by surgical grade. A total of 406 surgeons from 12 NHS Trusts submitted data on 55,567 cataract operations between November 2001 and July 2006 (86% from January 2004). In all, 283 surgeons contributed data on >25 cases, providing 54,319 operations suitable for detailed analysis. Case-mix adjusted results of individual surgeons are presented as funnel plots for all surgeons together, and separately for three different grades of surgeon. Plots include 95 and 99.8% confidence limits around the case-mix adjusted outcomes for detection of surgical outliers. Routinely collected electronic data conforming to the CND provides sufficient detail for case-mix adjustment of cataract surgical outcomes. The validation of these risk indicators should be carried out using fresh data to confirm the validity of the risk model. Once validated this model should provide an equitable approach for peer-to-peer comparisons in the context of revalidation.

A methodological approach to identify external factors for indicator-based risk adjustment illustrated by a cataract surgery register

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Risk adjustment is crucial for comparison of outcome in medical care. Knowledge of the external factors that impact measured outcome but that cannot be influenced by the physician is a prerequisite for this adjustment. To date, a universal and reproducible method for identification of the relevant external factors has not been published. The selection of external factors in current quality assurance programmes is mainly based on expert opinion. We propose and demonstrate a methodology for identification of external factors requiring risk adjustment of outcome indicators and we apply it to a cataract surgery register. Methods Defined test criteria to determine the relevance for risk adjustment are “clinical relevance” and “statistical significance”. Clinical relevance of the association is presumed when observed success rates of the indicator in the presence and absence of the external factor exceed a pre-specified range of 10%. Statistical significance of the association between the external factor and outcome indicators is assessed by univariate stratification and multivariate logistic regression adjustment. The cataract surgery register was set up as part of a German multi-centre register trial for out-patient cataract surgery in three high-volume surgical sites. A total of 14,924 patient follow-ups have been documented since 2005. Eight external factors potentially relevant for risk adjustment were related to the outcome indicators “refractive accuracy” and “visual rehabilitation” 2–5 weeks after surgery. Results The clinical relevance criterion confirmed 2 (“refractive accuracy”) and 5 (“visual rehabilitation”) external factors. The significance criterion was verified in two ways. Univariate and multivariate analyses revealed almost identical external factors: 4 were related to “refractive accuracy” and 7 (6) to “visual rehabilitation”. Two (“refractive accuracy”) and 5 (“visual rehabilitation”) factors

Risk-adjusted monitoring of survival times

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sego, Landon H.; Reynolds, Marion R.; Woodall, William H.

2009-02-26

We consider the monitoring of clinical outcomes, where each patient has a di®erent risk of death prior to undergoing a health care procedure.We propose a risk-adjusted survival time CUSUM chart (RAST CUSUM) for monitoring clinical outcomes where the primary endpoint is a continuous, time-to-event variable that may be right censored. Risk adjustment is accomplished using accelerated failure time regression models. We compare the average run length performance of the RAST CUSUM chart to the risk-adjusted Bernoulli CUSUM chart, using data from cardiac surgeries to motivate the details of the comparison. The comparisons show that the RAST CUSUM chart is moremore » efficient at detecting a sudden decrease in the odds of death than the risk-adjusted Bernoulli CUSUM chart, especially when the fraction of censored observations is not too high. We also discuss the implementation of a prospective monitoring scheme using the RAST CUSUM chart.« less

Validation of Diagnostic Groups Based on Health Care Utilization Data Should Adjust for Sampling Strategy.

PubMed

Cadieux, Geneviève; Tamblyn, Robyn; Buckeridge, David L; Dendukuri, Nandini

2017-08-01

Valid measurement of outcomes such as disease prevalence using health care utilization data is fundamental to the implementation of a "learning health system." Definitions of such outcomes can be complex, based on multiple diagnostic codes. The literature on validating such data demonstrates a lack of awareness of the need for a stratified sampling design and corresponding statistical methods. We propose a method for validating the measurement of diagnostic groups that have: (1) different prevalences of diagnostic codes within the group; and (2) low prevalence. We describe an estimation method whereby: (1) low-prevalence diagnostic codes are oversampled, and the positive predictive value (PPV) of the diagnostic group is estimated as a weighted average of the PPV of each diagnostic code; and (2) claims that fall within a low-prevalence diagnostic group are oversampled relative to claims that are not, and bias-adjusted estimators of sensitivity and specificity are generated. We illustrate our proposed method using an example from population health surveillance in which diagnostic groups are applied to physician claims to identify cases of acute respiratory illness. Failure to account for the prevalence of each diagnostic code within a diagnostic group leads to the underestimation of the PPV, because low-prevalence diagnostic codes are more likely to be false positives. Failure to adjust for oversampling of claims that fall within the low-prevalence diagnostic group relative to those that do not leads to the overestimation of sensitivity and underestimation of specificity.

Rural-Urban Differences in Medicare Quality Outcomes and the Impact of Risk Adjustment.

PubMed

Henning-Smith, Carrie; Kozhimannil, Katy; Casey, Michelle; Prasad, Shailendra; Moscovice, Ira

2017-09-01

There has been considerable debate in recent years about whether, and how, to risk-adjust quality measures for sociodemographic characteristics. However, geographic location, especially rurality, has been largely absent from the discussion. To examine differences by rurality in quality outcomes, and the impact of adjustment for individual and community-level sociodemographic characteristics on quality outcomes. The 2012 Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey, Access to Care module, combined with the 2012 County Health Rankings. All data used were publicly available, secondary data. We merged the 2012 Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey data with the 2012 County Health Rankings data using county of residence. We compared 6 unadjusted quality of care measures for Medicare beneficiaries (satisfaction with care, blood pressure checked, cholesterol checked, flu shot receipt, change in health status, and all-cause annual readmission) by rurality (rural noncore, micropolitan, and metropolitan). We then ran nested multivariable logistic regression models to assess the impact of adjusting for community and individual-level sociodemographic characteristics to determine whether these mediate the rurality difference in quality of care. The relationship between rurality and change in health status was mediated by the inclusion of community-level characteristics; however, adjusting for community and individual-level characteristics caused differences by rurality to emerge in 2 of the measures: blood pressure checked and cholesterol checked. For all quality scores, model fit improved after adding community and individual characteristics. Quality is multifaceted and is impacted by individual and community-level socio-demographic characteristics, as well as by geographic location. Current debates about risk-adjustment procedures should take rurality into account.

Association of surgical care improvement project infection-related process measure compliance with risk-adjusted outcomes: implications for quality measurement.

PubMed

Ingraham, Angela M; Cohen, Mark E; Bilimoria, Karl Y; Dimick, Justin B; Richards, Karen E; Raval, Mehul V; Fleisher, Lee A; Hall, Bruce L; Ko, Clifford Y

2010-12-01

Facility-level process measure adherence is being publicly reported. However, the association between measure adherence and surgical outcomes is not well-established. Our objective was to determine the degree to which Surgical Care Improvement Project (SCIP) process measures are associated with American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS NSQIP) risk-adjusted outcomes. This cross-sectional study included hospitals participating in the ACS NSQIP and SCIP (n = 200). ACS NSQIP outcomes (30-day overall morbidity, serious morbidity, surgical site infections [SSI], and mortality) and adherence to SCIP SSI-related process measures (from the Hospital Compare database) were collected from January 1, 2008, through December 31, 2008. Hospital-level correlation coefficients between compliance with 4 process measures (ie, antibiotic administration within 1 hour before incision [SCIP-1]; appropriate antibiotic prophylaxis [SCIP-2]; antibiotic discontinuation within 24 hours after surgery [SCIP-3]; and appropriate hair removal [SCIP 6]) and 4 risk-adjusted outcomes were calculated. Regression analyses estimated the contribution of process measure adherence to risk-adjusted outcomes. Of 211 ACS NSQIP hospitals, 95% had data reported by Hospital Compare. Depending on the measure, hospital-level compliance ranged from 60% to 100%. Of the 16 correlations, 15 demonstrated nonsignificant associations with risk-adjusted outcomes. The exception was the relationship between SCIP-2 and SSI (p = 0.004). SCIP-1 demonstrated an intriguing but nonsignificant relationship with SSI (p = 0.08) and overall morbidity (p = 0.08). Although adherence to SCIP-2 was a significant predictor of risk-adjusted SSI (p < 0.0001) and overall morbidity (p < 0.0001), inclusion of compliance for SCIP-1 and SCIP-2 caused only slight improvement in model quality. Better adherence to infection-related process measures over the observed range was not significantly associated with

Solving the Value Equation: Assessing Surgeon Performance Using Risk-Adjusted Quality-Cost Diagrams and Surgical Outcomes.

PubMed

Knechtle, William S; Perez, Sebastian D; Raval, Mehul V; Sullivan, Patrick S; Duwayri, Yazan M; Fernandez, Felix; Sharma, Joe; Sweeney, John F

Quality-cost diagrams have been used previously to assess interventions and their cost-effectiveness. This study explores the use of risk-adjusted quality-cost diagrams to compare the value provided by surgeons by presenting cost and outcomes simultaneously. Colectomy cases from a single institution captured in the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database were linked to hospital cost-accounting data to determine costs per encounter. Risk adjustment models were developed and observed average cost and complication rates per surgeon were compared to expected cost and complication rates using the diagrams. Surgeons were surveyed to determine if the diagrams could provide information that would result in practice adjustment. Of 55 surgeons surveyed on the utility of the diagrams, 92% of respondents believed the diagrams were useful. The diagrams seemed intuitive to interpret, and making risk-adjusted comparisons accounted for patient differences in the evaluation.

An in-depth assessment of a diagnosis-based risk adjustment model based on national health insurance claims: the application of the Johns Hopkins Adjusted Clinical Group case-mix system in Taiwan.

PubMed

Chang, Hsien-Yen; Weiner, Jonathan P

2010-01-18

Diagnosis-based risk adjustment is becoming an important issue globally as a result of its implications for payment, high-risk predictive modelling and provider performance assessment. The Taiwanese National Health Insurance (NHI) programme provides universal coverage and maintains a single national computerized claims database, which enables the application of diagnosis-based risk adjustment. However, research regarding risk adjustment is limited. This study aims to examine the performance of the Adjusted Clinical Group (ACG) case-mix system using claims-based diagnosis information from the Taiwanese NHI programme. A random sample of NHI enrollees was selected. Those continuously enrolled in 2002 were included for concurrent analyses (n = 173,234), while those in both 2002 and 2003 were included for prospective analyses (n = 164,562). Health status measures derived from 2002 diagnoses were used to explain the 2002 and 2003 health expenditure. A multivariate linear regression model was adopted after comparing the performance of seven different statistical models. Split-validation was performed in order to avoid overfitting. The performance measures were adjusted R2 and mean absolute prediction error of five types of expenditure at individual level, and predictive ratio of total expenditure at group level. The more comprehensive models performed better when used for explaining resource utilization. Adjusted R2 of total expenditure in concurrent/prospective analyses were 4.2%/4.4% in the demographic model, 15%/10% in the ACGs or ADGs (Aggregated Diagnosis Group) model, and 40%/22% in the models containing EDCs (Expanded Diagnosis Cluster). When predicting expenditure for groups based on expenditure quintiles, all models underpredicted the highest expenditure group and overpredicted the four other groups. For groups based on morbidity burden, the ACGs model had the best performance overall. Given the widespread availability of claims data and the superior explanatory

Ensemble of trees approaches to risk adjustment for evaluating a hospital's performance.

PubMed

Liu, Yang; Traskin, Mikhail; Lorch, Scott A; George, Edward I; Small, Dylan

2015-03-01

A commonly used method for evaluating a hospital's performance on an outcome is to compare the hospital's observed outcome rate to the hospital's expected outcome rate given its patient (case) mix and service. The process of calculating the hospital's expected outcome rate given its patient mix and service is called risk adjustment (Iezzoni 1997). Risk adjustment is critical for accurately evaluating and comparing hospitals' performances since we would not want to unfairly penalize a hospital just because it treats sicker patients. The key to risk adjustment is accurately estimating the probability of an Outcome given patient characteristics. For cases with binary outcomes, the method that is commonly used in risk adjustment is logistic regression. In this paper, we consider ensemble of trees methods as alternatives for risk adjustment, including random forests and Bayesian additive regression trees (BART). Both random forests and BART are modern machine learning methods that have been shown recently to have excellent performance for prediction of outcomes in many settings. We apply these methods to carry out risk adjustment for the performance of neonatal intensive care units (NICU). We show that these ensemble of trees methods outperform logistic regression in predicting mortality among babies treated in NICU, and provide a superior method of risk adjustment compared to logistic regression.

Case mix adjustment of health outcomes, resource use and process indicators in childbirth care: a register-based study.

PubMed

Mesterton, Johan; Lindgren, Peter; Ekenberg Abreu, Anna; Ladfors, Lars; Lilja, Monica; Saltvedt, Sissel; Amer-Wåhlin, Isis

2016-05-31

Unwarranted variation in care practice and outcomes has gained attention and inter-hospital comparisons are increasingly being used to highlight and understand differences between hospitals. Adjustment for case mix is a prerequisite for meaningful comparisons between hospitals with different patient populations. The objective of this study was to identify and quantify maternal characteristics that impact a set of important indicators of health outcomes, resource use and care process and which could be used for case mix adjustment of comparisons between hospitals. In this register-based study, 139 756 deliveries in 2011 and 2012 were identified in regional administrative systems from seven Swedish regions, which together cover 67 % of all deliveries in Sweden. Data were linked to the Medical birth register and Statistics Sweden's population data. A number of important indicators in childbirth care were studied: Caesarean section (CS), induction of labour, length of stay, perineal tears, haemorrhage > 1000 ml and post-partum infections. Sociodemographic and clinical characteristics deemed relevant for case mix adjustment of outcomes and resource use were identified based on previous literature and based on clinical expertise. Adjustment using logistic and ordinary least squares regression analysis was performed to quantify the impact of these characteristics on the studied indicators. Almost all case mix factors analysed had an impact on CS rate, induction rate and length of stay and the effect was highly statistically significant for most factors. Maternal age, parity, fetal presentation and multiple birth were strong predictors of all these indicators but a number of additional factors such as born outside the EU, body mass index (BMI) and several complications during pregnancy were also important risk factors. A number of maternal characteristics had a noticeable impact on risk of perineal tears, while the impact of case mix factors was less pronounced for

Validating a benchmarking tool for audit of early outcomes after operations for head and neck cancer.

PubMed

Tighe, D; Sassoon, I; McGurk, M

2017-04-01

INTRODUCTION In 2013 all UK surgical specialties, with the exception of head and neck surgery, published outcome data adjusted for case mix for indicator operations. This paper reports a pilot study to validate a previously published risk adjustment score on patients from separate UK cancer centres. METHODS A case note audit was performed of 1,075 patients undergoing 1,218 operations for head and neck squamous cell carcinoma under general anaesthesia in 4 surgical centres. A logistic regression equation predicting for all complications, previously validated internally at sites A-C, was tested on a fourth external validation sample (site D, 172 operations) using receiver operating characteristic curves, Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit analysis and Brier scores. RESULTS Thirty-day complication rates varied widely (34-51%) between the centres. The predictive score allowed imperfect risk adjustment (area under the curve: 0.70), with Hosmer-Lemeshow analysis suggesting good calibration. The Brier score changed from 0.19 for sites A-C to 0.23 when site D was also included, suggesting poor accuracy overall. CONCLUSIONS Marked differences in operative risk and patient case mix captured by the risk adjustment score do not explain all the differences in observed outcomes. Further investigation with different methods is recommended to improve modelling of risk. Morbidity is common, and usually has a major impact on patient recovery, ward occupancy, hospital finances and patient perception of quality of care. We hope comparative audit will highlight good performance and challenge underperformance where it exists.

Validating a benchmarking tool for audit of early outcomes after operations for head and neck cancer

PubMed Central

Sassoon, I; McGurk, M

2017-01-01

INTRODUCTION In 2013 all UK surgical specialties, with the exception of head and neck surgery, published outcome data adjusted for case mix for indicator operations. This paper reports a pilot study to validate a previously published risk adjustment score on patients from separate UK cancer centres. METHODS A case note audit was performed of 1,075 patients undergoing 1,218 operations for head and neck squamous cell carcinoma under general anaesthesia in 4 surgical centres. A logistic regression equation predicting for all complications, previously validated internally at sites A–C, was tested on a fourth external validation sample (site D, 172 operations) using receiver operating characteristic curves, Hosmer–Lemeshow goodness of fit analysis and Brier scores. RESULTS Thirty-day complication rates varied widely (34–51%) between the centres. The predictive score allowed imperfect risk adjustment (area under the curve: 0.70), with Hosmer–Lemeshow analysis suggesting good calibration. The Brier score changed from 0.19 for sites A–C to 0.23 when site D was also included, suggesting poor accuracy overall. CONCLUSIONS Marked differences in operative risk and patient case mix captured by the risk adjustment score do not explain all the differences in observed outcomes. Further investigation with different methods is recommended to improve modelling of risk. Morbidity is common, and usually has a major impact on patient recovery, ward occupancy, hospital finances and patient perception of quality of care. We hope comparative audit will highlight good performance and challenge underperformance where it exists. PMID:27917662

42 CFR 422.310 - Risk adjustment data.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... risk adjustment factors used to adjust payments, as required under §§ 422.304(a) and (c). CMS also may... submission of risk adjustment data. Risk adjustment factors for each payment year are based on risk... factors for affected individuals to determine if adjustments to payments are necessary. Risk adjustment...

42 CFR 422.310 - Risk adjustment data.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... risk adjustment factors used to adjust payments, as required under §§ 422.304(a) and (c). CMS also may... submission of risk adjustment data. Risk adjustment factors for each payment year are based on risk... factors for affected individuals to determine if adjustments to payments are necessary. Risk adjustment...

Validation and Adjustment of the Leipzig-Halifax Acute Aortic Dissection Type A Scorecard.

PubMed

Mejàre-Berggren, Hanna; Olsson, Christian

2017-11-01

The novel Leipzig-Halifax (LH) scorecard for acute aortic dissection type A (AADA) stratifies risk of in-hospital death based on age, malperfusion syndromes, critical preoperative state, and coronary disease. The study aim was to externally validate the LH scorecard performance and, if adequate, propose adjustments. All consecutive AADA patients operated on from 1996 to 2016 (n = 509) were included to generate an external validation cohort. Variables related to in-hospital death were analyzed using univariable and multivariable analysis. The LH scorecard was applied to the validation cohort, compared with the original study, and variable selection was adjusted using validation measures for discrimination and calibration. In-hospital mortality rate was 17.7% (LH cohort 18.7%). Critical preoperative state and Penn class non-Aa were independent predictors (odds ratio [OR] 2.42 and 2.45, respectively) of in-hospital death. The LH scorecard was adjusted to include Penn class non-Aa, critical preoperative state, and coronary disease. Assessing discrimination, area under receiver operator characteristic curve for the LH scorecard was 0.61 versus 0.66 for the new scorecard (p = 0.086). In-hospital mortality rates in low-, medium-, and high-risk groups were 14%, 15%, and 48%, respectively (LH scorecard) versus 11%, 23%, and 43%, respectively (new scorecard), and goodness-of-fit p value was 0.01 versus 0.86, indicating better calibration by the new scorecard. A lower Akaike information criterion value, 464 versus 448, favored the new scorecard. Through adjustment of the LH scorecard after external validation, prognostic performance improved. Further validated, the LH scorecard could be a valuable risk prediction tool. Copyright © 2017 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk Factors and Risk Stratification for Adverse Obstetrical Outcomes After Appendectomy or Cholecystectomy During Pregnancy.

PubMed

Sachs, Adam; Guglielminotti, Jean; Miller, Russell; Landau, Ruth; Smiley, Richard; Li, Guohua

2017-05-01

Identification of risk factors for adverse obstetrical outcomes after appendectomy and cholecystectomy during pregnancy is necessary for evidence-based risk reduction and adequate patient counseling. To identify risk factors for adverse obstetrical outcomes after appendectomy and cholecystectomy during pregnancy and stratify the risk of such outcomes. A cohort study was conducted using the Nationwide Inpatient Sample, a nationally representative sample of patients discharged from community hospitals in the United States, from January 1, 2003, to December 31, 2012. Multivariable analysis of risk factors for adverse obstetric outcomes was performed for 19 926 women undergoing appendectomy or cholecystectomy during pregnancy and a scoring system for such risk factors was developed. Data analysis was conducted from January 1, 2015, to July 31, 2016. A composite measure including 7 adverse obstetrical outcomes throughout pregnancy and occurring before hospital discharge. Of the 19 926 women (mean [SD] age, 26 [6] years) in the study, 1018 adverse obstetrical events were recorded in 953 pregnant women (4.8%). The 3 most frequent adverse events were preterm delivery (360 [35.4%]), preterm labor without preterm delivery (269 [26.4%]), and miscarriage (262 [25.7%]). The risk factors associated most strongly with an adverse obstetrical outcome included cervical incompetence (adjusted odds ratio, 24.29; 95% CI, 7.48-78.81), preterm labor during current pregnancy (adjusted odds ratio, 18.34; 95% CI, 4.95-67.96), vaginitis or vulvovaginitis (adjusted odds ratio, 5.17; 95% CI, 2.19-12.23), and sepsis (adjusted odds ratio, 3.39; 95% CI, 2.08-5.51). A scoring system based on statistically significant variables classified the study sample into 3 risk groups corresponding to predicted probabilities of adverse obstetrical outcomes of 2.5% (≤4 points), 8.2% (5-8 points), and 21.8% (≥9 points). Approximately 5% of women experience adverse obstetrical outcomes after appendectomy

A risk-adjusted O-E CUSUM with monitoring bands for monitoring medical outcomes.

PubMed

Sun, Rena Jie; Kalbfleisch, John D

2013-03-01

In order to monitor a medical center's survival outcomes using simple plots, we introduce a risk-adjusted Observed-Expected (O-E) Cumulative SUM (CUSUM) along with monitoring bands as decision criterion.The proposed monitoring bands can be used in place of a more traditional but complicated V-shaped mask or the simultaneous use of two one-sided CUSUMs. The resulting plot is designed to simultaneously monitor for failure time outcomes that are "worse than expected" or "better than expected." The slopes of the O-E CUSUM provide direct estimates of the relative risk (as compared to a standard or expected failure rate) for the data being monitored. Appropriate rejection regions are obtained by controlling the false alarm rate (type I error) over a period of given length. Simulation studies are conducted to illustrate the performance of the proposed method. A case study is carried out for 58 liver transplant centers. The use of CUSUM methods for quality improvement is stressed. Copyright © 2013, The International Biometric Society.

Risk-adjusted morbidity in teaching hospitals correlates with reported levels of communication and collaboration on surgical teams but not with scale measures of teamwork climate, safety climate, or working conditions.

PubMed

Davenport, Daniel L; Henderson, William G; Mosca, Cecilia L; Khuri, Shukri F; Mentzer, Robert M

2007-12-01

Since the Institute of Medicine patient safety reports, a number of survey-based measures of organizational climate safety factors (OCSFs) have been developed. The goal of this study was to measure the impact of OCSFs on risk-adjusted surgical morbidity and mortality. Surveys were administered to staff on general/vascular surgery services during a year. Surveys included multiitem scales measuring OCSFs. Additionally, perceived levels of communication and collaboration with coworkers were assessed. The National Surgical Quality Improvement Program was used to assess risk-adjusted morbidity and mortality. Correlations between outcomes and OCSFs were calculated and between outcomes and communication/collaboration with attending and resident doctors, nurses, and other providers. Fifty-two sites participated in the survey: 44 Veterans Affairs and 8 academic medical centers. A total of 6,083 surveys were returned, for a response rate of 52%. The OCSF measures of teamwork climate, safety climate, working conditions, recognition of stress effects, job satisfaction, and burnout demonstrated internal validity but did not correlate with risk-adjusted outcomes. Reported levels of communication/collaboration with attending and resident doctors correlated with risk-adjusted morbidity. Survey-based teamwork, safety climate, and working conditions scales are not confirmed to measure organizational factors that influence risk-adjusted surgical outcomes. Reported communication/collaboration with attending and resident doctors on surgical services influenced patient morbidity. This suggests the importance of doctors' coordination and decision-making roles on surgical teams in providing high-quality and safe care. We propose risk-adjusted morbidity as an effective measure of surgical patient safety.

Performance of diagnosis-based risk adjustment measures in a population of sick Australians.

PubMed

Duckett, S J; Agius, P A

2002-12-01

Australia is beginning to explore 'managed competition' as an organising framework for the health care system. This requires setting fair capitation rates, i.e. rates that adjust for the risk profile of covered lives. This paper tests two US-developed risk adjustment approaches using Australian data. Data from the 'co-ordinated care' dataset (which incorporates all service costs of 16,538 participants in a large health service research project conducted in 1996-99) were grouped into homogenous risk categories using risk adjustment 'grouper software'. The grouper products yielded three sets of homogenous categories: Diagnostic Groups and Diagnostic cost Groups. A two-stage analysis of predictive power was used: probability of any service use in the concurrent year, next year and the year after (logistic regression) and, for service users, a regression of logged cost of service use. The independent variables were diagnosis gender, a SES variable and the Age, gender and diagnosis-based risk adjustment measures explain around 40-45% of variation in costs of service use in the current year for untrimmed data (compared with around 15% for age and gender alone). Prediction of subsequent use is much poorer (around 20%). Using more information to assign people to risk categories generally improves prediction. Predictive power of diagnosis-base risk adjusters on this Australian dataset is similar to that found in Low predictive power carries policy risks of cream skimming rather than managing population health and care. Competitive funding models with risk adjustment on prior year experience could reduce system efficiency if implemented with current risk adjustment technology.

Risk Factors and Risk Stratification for Adverse Obstetrical Outcomes After Appendectomy or Cholecystectomy During Pregnancy

PubMed Central

Guglielminotti, Jean; Miller, Russell; Landau, Ruth; Smiley, Richard; Li, Guohua

2017-01-01

Importance Identification of risk factors for adverse obstetrical outcomes after appendectomy and cholecystectomy during pregnancy is necessary for evidence-based risk reduction and adequate patient counseling. Objectives To identify risk factors for adverse obstetrical outcomes after appendectomy and cholecystectomy during pregnancy and stratify the risk of such outcomes. Design, Setting, and Participants A cohort study was conducted using the Nationwide Inpatient Sample, a nationally representative sample of patients discharged from community hospitals in the United States, from January 1, 2003, to December 31, 2012. Multivariable analysis of risk factors for adverse obstetric outcomes was performed for 19 926 women undergoing appendectomy or cholecystectomy during pregnancy and a scoring system for such risk factors was developed. Data analysis was conducted from January 1, 2015, to July 31, 2016. Main Outcomes and Measures A composite measure including 7 adverse obstetrical outcomes throughout pregnancy and occurring before hospital discharge. Results Of the 19 926 women (mean [SD] age, 26 [6] years) in the study, 1018 adverse obstetrical events were recorded in 953 pregnant women (4.8%). The 3 most frequent adverse events were preterm delivery (360 [35.4%]), preterm labor without preterm delivery (269 [26.4%]), and miscarriage (262 [25.7%]). The risk factors associated most strongly with an adverse obstetrical outcome included cervical incompetence (adjusted odds ratio, 24.29; 95% CI, 7.48-78.81), preterm labor during current pregnancy (adjusted odds ratio, 18.34; 95% CI, 4.95-67.96), vaginitis or vulvovaginitis (adjusted odds ratio, 5.17; 95% CI, 2.19-12.23), and sepsis (adjusted odds ratio, 3.39; 95% CI, 2.08-5.51). A scoring system based on statistically significant variables classified the study sample into 3 risk groups corresponding to predicted probabilities of adverse obstetrical outcomes of 2.5% (≤4 points), 8.2% (5-8 points), and 21.8% (≥9

A simplified donor risk index for predicting outcome after deceased donor kidney transplantation.

PubMed

Watson, Christopher J E; Johnson, Rachel J; Birch, Rhiannon; Collett, Dave; Bradley, J Andrew

2012-02-15

We sought to determine the deceased donor factors associated with outcome after kidney transplantation and to develop a clinically applicable Kidney Donor Risk Index. Data from the UK Transplant Registry on 7620 adult recipients of adult deceased donor kidney transplants between 2000 and 2007 inclusive were analyzed. Donor factors potentially influencing transplant outcome were investigated using Cox regression, adjusting for significant recipient and transplant factors. A United Kingdom Kidney Donor Risk Index was derived from the model and validated. Donor age was the most significant factor predicting poor transplant outcome (hazard ratio for 18-39 and 60+ years relative to 40-59 years was 0.78 and 1.49, respectively, P<0.001). A history of donor hypertension was also associated with increased risk (hazard ratio 1.30, P=0.001), and increased donor body weight, longer hospital stay before death, and use of adrenaline were also significantly associated with poorer outcomes up to 3 years posttransplant. Other donor factors including donation after circulatory death, history of cardiothoracic disease, diabetes history, and terminal creatinine were not significant. A donor risk index based on the five significant donor factors was derived and confirmed to be prognostic of outcome in a validation cohort (concordance statistic 0.62). An index developed in the United States by Rao et al., Transplantation 2009; 88: 231-236, included 15 factors and gave a concordance statistic of 0.63 in the UK context, suggesting that our much simpler model has equivalent predictive ability. A Kidney Donor Risk Index based on five donor variables provides a clinically useful tool that may help with organ allocation and informed consent.

Mental Health Risk Adjustment with Clinical Categories and Machine Learning.

PubMed

Shrestha, Akritee; Bergquist, Savannah; Montz, Ellen; Rose, Sherri

2017-12-15

To propose nonparametric ensemble machine learning for mental health and substance use disorders (MHSUD) spending risk adjustment formulas, including considering Clinical Classification Software (CCS) categories as diagnostic covariates over the commonly used Hierarchical Condition Category (HCC) system. 2012-2013 Truven MarketScan database. We implement 21 algorithms to predict MHSUD spending, as well as a weighted combination of these algorithms called super learning. The algorithm collection included seven unique algorithms that were supplied with three differing sets of MHSUD-related predictors alongside demographic covariates: HCC, CCS, and HCC + CCS diagnostic variables. Performance was evaluated based on cross-validated R 2 and predictive ratios. Results show that super learning had the best performance based on both metrics. The top single algorithm was random forests, which improved on ordinary least squares regression by 10 percent with respect to relative efficiency. CCS categories-based formulas were generally more predictive of MHSUD spending compared to HCC-based formulas. Literature supports the potential benefit of implementing a separate MHSUD spending risk adjustment formula. Our results suggest there is an incentive to explore machine learning for MHSUD-specific risk adjustment, as well as considering CCS categories over HCCs. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

Extreme umbilical cord lengths, cord knot and entanglement: Risk factors and risk of adverse outcomes, a population-based study

PubMed Central

Kessler, Jörg

2018-01-01

Objectives To determine risk factors for short and long umbilical cord, entanglement and knot. Explore their associated risks of adverse maternal and perinatal outcome, including risk of recurrence in a subsequent pregnancy. To provide population based gestational age and sex and parity specific reference ranges for cord length. Design Population based registry study. Setting Medical Birth Registry of Norway 1999–2013. Population All singleton births (gestational age>22weeks<45 weeks) (n = 856 300). Methods Descriptive statistics and odds ratios of risk factors for extreme cord length and adverse outcomes based on logistic regression adjusted for confounders. Main outcome measures Short or long cord (<10th or >90th percentile), cord knot and entanglement, adverse pregnancy outcomes including perinatal and intrauterine death. Results Increasing parity, maternal height and body mass index, and diabetes were associated with increased risk of a long cord. Large placental and birth weight, and fetal male sex were factors for a long cord, which again was associated with a doubled risk of intrauterine and perinatal death, and increased risk of adverse neonatal outcome. Anomalous cord insertion, female sex, and a small placenta were associated with a short cord, which was associated with increased risk of fetal malformations, placental complications, caesarean delivery, non-cephalic presentation, perinatal and intrauterine death. At term, cord knot was associated with a quadrupled risk of perinatal death. The combination of a cord knot and entanglement had a more than additive effect to the association to perinatal death. There was a more than doubled risk of recurrence of a long or short cord, knot and entanglement in a subsequent pregnancy of the same woman. Conclusion Cord length is influenced both by maternal and fetal factors, and there is increased risk of recurrence. Extreme cord length, entanglement and cord knot are associated with increased risk of adverse

Using risk-adjustment models to identify high-cost risks.

PubMed

Meenan, Richard T; Goodman, Michael J; Fishman, Paul A; Hornbrook, Mark C; O'Keeffe-Rosetti, Maureen C; Bachman, Donald J

2003-11-01

We examine the ability of various publicly available risk models to identify high-cost individuals and enrollee groups using multi-HMO administrative data. Five risk-adjustment models (the Global Risk-Adjustment Model [GRAM], Diagnostic Cost Groups [DCGs], Adjusted Clinical Groups [ACGs], RxRisk, and Prior-expense) were estimated on a multi-HMO administrative data set of 1.5 million individual-level observations for 1995-1996. Models produced distributions of individual-level annual expense forecasts for comparison to actual values. Prespecified "high-cost" thresholds were set within each distribution. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for "high-cost" prevalences of 1% and 0.5% was calculated, as was the proportion of "high-cost" dollars correctly identified. Results are based on a separate 106,000-observation validation dataset. For "high-cost" prevalence targets of 1% and 0.5%, ACGs, DCGs, GRAM, and Prior-expense are very comparable in overall discrimination (AUCs, 0.83-0.86). Given a 0.5% prevalence target and a 0.5% prediction threshold, DCGs, GRAM, and Prior-expense captured $963,000 (approximately 3%) more "high-cost" sample dollars than other models. DCGs captured the most "high-cost" dollars among enrollees with asthma, diabetes, and depression; predictive performance among demographic groups (Medicaid members, members over 64, and children under 13) varied across models. Risk models can efficiently identify enrollees who are likely to generate future high costs and who could benefit from case management. The dollar value of improved prediction performance of the most accurate risk models should be meaningful to decision-makers and encourage their broader use for identifying high costs.

Evaluating diagnosis-based risk-adjustment methods in a population with spinal cord dysfunction.

PubMed

Warner, Grace; Hoenig, Helen; Montez, Maria; Wang, Fei; Rosen, Amy

2004-02-01

To examine performance of models in predicting health care utilization for individuals with spinal cord dysfunction. Regression models compared 2 diagnosis-based risk-adjustment methods, the adjusted clinical groups (ACGs) and diagnostic cost groups (DCGs). To improve prediction, we added to our model: (1) spinal cord dysfunction-specific diagnostic information, (2) limitations in self-care function, and (3) both 1 and 2. Models were replicated in 3 populations. Samples from 3 populations: (1) 40% of veterans using Veterans Health Administration services in fiscal year 1997 (FY97) (N=1,046,803), (2) veteran sample with spinal cord dysfunction identified by codes from the International Statistical Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision, Clinical Modifications (N=7666), and (3) veteran sample identified in Veterans Affairs Spinal Cord Dysfunction Registry (N=5888). Not applicable. Inpatient, outpatient, and total days of care in FY97. The DCG models (R(2) range,.22-.38) performed better than ACG models (R(2) range,.04-.34) for all outcomes. Spinal cord dysfunction-specific diagnostic information improved prediction more in the ACG model than in the DCG model (R(2) range for ACG,.14-.34; R(2) range for DCG,.24-.38). Information on self-care function slightly improved performance (R(2) range increased from 0 to.04). The DCG risk-adjustment models predicted health care utilization better than ACG models. ACG model prediction was improved by adding information.

Validation of a new mortality risk prediction model for people 65 years and older in northwest Russia: The Crystal risk score.

PubMed

Turusheva, Anna; Frolova, Elena; Bert, Vaes; Hegendoerfer, Eralda; Degryse, Jean-Marie

2017-07-01

Prediction models help to make decisions about further management in clinical practice. This study aims to develop a mortality risk score based on previously identified risk predictors and to perform internal and external validations. In a population-based prospective cohort study of 611 community-dwelling individuals aged 65+ in St. Petersburg (Russia), all-cause mortality risks over 2.5 years follow-up were determined based on the results obtained from anthropometry, medical history, physical performance tests, spirometry and laboratory tests. C-statistic, risk reclassification analysis, integrated discrimination improvement analysis, decision curves analysis, internal validation and external validation were performed. Older adults were at higher risk for mortality [HR (95%CI)=4.54 (3.73-5.52)] when two or more of the following components were present: poor physical performance, low muscle mass, poor lung function, and anemia. If anemia was combined with high C-reactive protein (CRP) and high B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) was added the HR (95%CI) was slightly higher (5.81 (4.73-7.14)) even after adjusting for age, sex and comorbidities. Our models were validated in an external population of adults 80+. The extended model had a better predictive capacity for cardiovascular mortality [HR (95%CI)=5.05 (2.23-11.44)] compared to the baseline model [HR (95%CI)=2.17 (1.18-4.00)] in the external population. We developed and validated a new risk prediction score that may be used to identify older adults at higher risk for mortality in Russia. Additional studies need to determine which targeted interventions improve the outcomes of these at-risk individuals. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Risk-adjusted payment and performance assessment for primary care.

PubMed

Ash, Arlene S; Ellis, Randall P

2012-08-01

Many wish to change incentives for primary care practices through bundled population-based payments and substantial performance feedback and bonus payments. Recognizing patient differences in costs and outcomes is crucial, but customized risk adjustment for such purposes is underdeveloped. Using MarketScan's claims-based data on 17.4 million commercially insured lives, we modeled bundled payment to support expected primary care activity levels (PCAL) and 9 patient outcomes for performance assessment. We evaluated models using 457,000 people assigned to 436 primary care physician panels, and among 13,000 people in a distinct multipayer medical home implementation with commercially insured, Medicare, and Medicaid patients. Each outcome is separately predicted from age, sex, and diagnoses. We define the PCAL outcome as a subset of all costs that proxies the bundled payment needed for comprehensive primary care. Other expected outcomes are used to establish targets against which actual performance can be fairly judged. We evaluate model performance using R(2)'s at patient and practice levels, and within policy-relevant subgroups. The PCAL model explains 67% of variation in its outcome, performing well across diverse patient ages, payers, plan types, and provider specialties; it explains 72% of practice-level variation. In 9 performance measures, the outcome-specific models explain 17%-86% of variation at the practice level, often substantially outperforming a generic score like the one used for full capitation payments in Medicare: for example, with grouped R(2)'s of 47% versus 5% for predicting "prescriptions for antibiotics of concern." Existing data can support the risk-adjusted bundled payment calculations and performance assessments needed to encourage desired transformations in primary care.

Risk Adjustment, Reinsurance Improved Financial Outcomes For Individual Market Insurers With The Highest Claims.

PubMed

Jacobs, Paul D; Cohen, Michael L; Keenan, Patricia

2017-04-01

The Affordable Care Act (ACA) reformed the individual health insurance market. Because insurers can no longer vary their offers of coverage based on applicants' health status, the ACA established a risk adjustment program to equalize health-related cost differences across plans. The ACA also established a temporary reinsurance program to subsidize high-cost claims. To assess the impact of these programs, we compared revenues to claims costs for insurers in the individual market during the first two years of ACA implementation (2014 and 2015), before and after the inclusion of risk adjustment and reinsurance payments. Before these payments were included, for the 30 percent of insurers with the highest claims costs, claims (not including administrative expenses) exceeded premium revenues by $90-$397 per enrollee per month. The effect was reversed after these payments were included, with revenues exceeding claims costs by $0-$49 per month. The risk adjustment and reinsurance programs were relatively well targeted in the first two years. While there is ongoing discussion regarding the future of the ACA, our findings can shed light on how risk-sharing programs can address risk selection among insurers-a pervasive issue in all health insurance markets. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

Adjusting for outcome misclassification: the importance of accounting for case-control sampling and other forms of outcome-related selection.

PubMed

Jurek, Anne M; Maldonado, George; Greenland, Sander

2013-03-01

Special care must be taken when adjusting for outcome misclassification in case-control data. Basic adjustment formulas using either sensitivity and specificity or predictive values (as with external validation data) do not account for the fact that controls are sampled from a much larger pool of potential controls. A parallel problem arises in surveys and cohort studies in which participation or loss is outcome related. We review this problem and provide simple methods to adjust for outcome misclassification in case-control studies, and illustrate the methods in a case-control birth certificate study of cleft lip/palate and maternal cigarette smoking during pregnancy. Adjustment formulas for outcome misclassification that ignore case-control sampling can yield severely biased results. In the data we examined, the magnitude of error caused by not accounting for sampling is small when population sensitivity and specificity are high, but increases as (1) population sensitivity decreases, (2) population specificity decreases, and (3) the magnitude of the differentiality increases. Failing to account for case-control sampling can result in an odds ratio adjusted for outcome misclassification that is either too high or too low. One needs to account for outcome-related selection (such as case-control sampling) when adjusting for outcome misclassification using external information. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk-adjusted hospital outcomes for children's surgery.

PubMed

Saito, Jacqueline M; Chen, Li Ern; Hall, Bruce L; Kraemer, Kari; Barnhart, Douglas C; Byrd, Claudia; Cohen, Mark E; Fei, Chunyuan; Heiss, Kurt F; Huffman, Kristopher; Ko, Clifford Y; Latus, Melissa; Meara, John G; Oldham, Keith T; Raval, Mehul V; Richards, Karen E; Shah, Rahul K; Sutton, Laura C; Vinocur, Charles D; Moss, R Lawrence

2013-09-01

BACKGROUND The American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program-Pediatric was initiated in 2008 to drive quality improvement in children's surgery. Low mortality and morbidity in previous analyses limited differentiation of hospital performance. Participating institutions included children's units within general hospitals and free-standing children's hospitals. Cases selected by Current Procedural Terminology codes encompassed procedures within pediatric general, otolaryngologic, orthopedic, urologic, plastic, neurologic, thoracic, and gynecologic surgery. Trained personnel abstracted demographic, surgical profile, preoperative, intraoperative, and postoperative variables. Incorporating procedure-specific risk, hierarchical models for 30-day mortality and morbidities were developed with significant predictors identified by stepwise logistic regression. Reliability was estimated to assess the balance of information versus error within models. In 2011, 46 281 patients from 43 hospitals were accrued; 1467 codes were aggregated into 226 groupings. Overall mortality was 0.3%, composite morbidity 5.8%, and surgical site infection (SSI) 1.8%. Hierarchical models revealed outlier hospitals with above or below expected performance for composite morbidity in the entire cohort, pediatric abdominal subgroup, and spine subgroup; SSI in the entire cohort and pediatric abdominal subgroup; and urinary tract infection in the entire cohort. Based on reliability estimates, mortality discriminates performance poorly due to very low event rate; however, reliable model construction for composite morbidity and SSI that differentiate institutions is feasible. The National Surgical Quality Improvement Program-Pediatric expansion has yielded risk-adjusted models to differentiate hospital performance in composite and specific morbidities. However, mortality has low utility as a children's surgery performance indicator. Programmatic improvements have resulted in

Measurement and risk adjustment of prelabor cesarean rates in a large sample of California hospitals.

PubMed

Huesch, Marco D; Currid-Halkett, Elizabeth; Doctor, Jason N

2014-05-01

Prelabor cesareans in women without a prior cesarean is an important quality measure, yet one that is seldom tracked. We estimated patient-level risks and calculated how sensitive hospital rankings on this proposed quality metric were to risk adjustment. This retrospective cohort study linked Californian patient data from the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality with hospital-level operational and financial data. Using the outcome of primary prelabor cesarean, we estimated patient-level logistic regressions in progressively more detailed models. We assessed incremental fit and discrimination, and aggregated the predicted patient-level event probabilities to construct hospital-level rankings. Of 408,355 deliveries by women without prior cesareans at 254 hospitals, 11.0% were prelabor cesareans. Including age, ethnicity, race, insurance, weekend and unscheduled admission, and 12 well-known patient risk factors yielded a model c-statistic of 0.83. Further maternal comorbidities, and hospital and obstetric unit characteristics only marginally improved fit. Risk adjusting hospital rankings led to a median absolute change in rank of 44 places compared to rankings based on observed rates. Of the 48 (49) hospitals identified as in the best (worst) quintile on observed rates, only 23 (18) were so identified by the risk-adjusted model. Models predict primary prelabor cesareans with good discrimination. Systematic hospital-level variation in patient risk factors requires risk adjustment to avoid considerably different classification of hospitals by outcome performance. An opportunity exists to define this metric and report such risk-adjusted outcomes to stakeholders. Copyright © 2014 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Health-based risk adjustment: is inpatient and outpatient diagnostic information sufficient?

PubMed

Lamers, L M

Adequate risk adjustment is critical to the success of market-oriented health care reforms in many countries. Currently used risk adjusters based on demographic and diagnostic cost groups (DCGs) do not reflect expected costs accurately. This study examines the simultaneous predictive accuracy of inpatient and outpatient morbidity measures and prior costs. DCGs, pharmacy cost groups (PCGs), and prior year's costs improve the predictive accuracy of the demographic model substantially. DCGs and PCGs seem complementary in their ability to predict future costs. However, this study shows that the combination of DCGs and PCGs still leaves room for cream skimming.

Toward the Development of Integrative Risk-Adjusted Measures of Quality Using Large Clinical Data Bases: The Case of Anesthesia Services.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fleming, Steven T.

1992-01-01

The concept of risk-adjusted measures of quality is discussed, and a methodology is proposed for risk-adjusting and integrating multiple adverse outcomes of anesthesia services into measures for quality assurance and quality improvement programs. Although designed for a new anesthesiology database, the methods should apply to other health…

A comparative evaluation of risk-adjustment models for benchmarking amputation-free survival after lower extremity bypass.

PubMed

Simons, Jessica P; Goodney, Philip P; Flahive, Julie; Hoel, Andrew W; Hallett, John W; Kraiss, Larry W; Schanzer, Andres

2016-04-01

Providing patients and payers with publicly reported risk-adjusted quality metrics for the purpose of benchmarking physicians and institutions has become a national priority. Several prediction models have been developed to estimate outcomes after lower extremity revascularization for critical limb ischemia, but the optimal model to use in contemporary practice has not been defined. We sought to identify the highest-performing risk-adjustment model for amputation-free survival (AFS) at 1 year after lower extremity bypass (LEB). We used the national Society for Vascular Surgery Vascular Quality Initiative (VQI) database (2003-2012) to assess the performance of three previously validated risk-adjustment models for AFS. The Bypass versus Angioplasty in Severe Ischaemia of the Leg (BASIL), Finland National Vascular (FINNVASC) registry, and the modified Project of Ex-vivo vein graft Engineering via Transfection III (PREVENT III [mPIII]) risk scores were applied to the VQI cohort. A novel model for 1-year AFS was also derived using the VQI data set and externally validated using the PIII data set. The relative discrimination (Harrell c-index) and calibration (Hosmer-May goodness-of-fit test) of each model were compared. Among 7754 patients in the VQI who underwent LEB for critical limb ischemia, the AFS was 74% at 1 year. Each of the previously published models for AFS demonstrated similar discriminative performance: c-indices for BASIL, FINNVASC, mPIII were 0.66, 0.60, and 0.64, respectively. The novel VQI-derived model had improved discriminative ability with a c-index of 0.71 and appropriate generalizability on external validation with a c-index of 0.68. The model was well calibrated in both the VQI and PIII data sets (goodness of fit P = not significant). Currently available prediction models for AFS after LEB perform modestly when applied to national contemporary VQI data. Moreover, the performance of each model was inferior to that of the novel VQI-derived model

The Pennsylvania Trauma Outcomes Study Risk-Adjusted Mortality Model: Results of a Statewide Benchmarking Program

PubMed Central

WIEBE, DOUGLAS J.; HOLENA, DANIEL N.; DELGADO, M. KIT; McWILLIAMS, NATHAN; ALTENBURG, JULIET; CARR, BRENDAN G.

2018-01-01

Trauma centers need objective feedback on performance to inform quality improvement efforts. The Trauma Quality Improvement Program recently published recommended methodology for case mix adjustment and benchmarking performance. We tested the feasibility of applying this methodology to develop risk-adjusted mortality models for a statewide trauma system. We performed a retrospective cohort study of patients ≥16 years old at Pennsylvania trauma centers from 2011 to 2013 (n = 100,278). Our main outcome measure was observed-to-expected mortality ratios (overall and within blunt, penetrating, multisystem, isolated head, and geriatric subgroups). Patient demographic variables, physiology, mechanism of injury, transfer status, injury severity, and pre-existing conditions were included as predictor variables. The statistical model had excellent discrimination (area under the curve = 0.94). Funnel plots of observed-to-expected identified five centers with lower than expected mortality and two centers with higher than expected mortality. No centers were outliers for management of penetrating trauma, but five centers had lower and three had higher than expected mortality for blunt trauma. It is feasible to use Trauma Quality Improvement Program methodology to develop risk-adjusted models for statewide trauma systems. Even with smaller numbers of trauma centers that are available in national datasets, it is possible to identify high and low outliers in performance. PMID:28541852

The Pennsylvania Trauma Outcomes Study Risk-Adjusted Mortality Model: Results of a Statewide Benchmarking Program.

PubMed

Wiebe, Douglas J; Holena, Daniel N; Delgado, M Kit; McWilliams, Nathan; Altenburg, Juliet; Carr, Brendan G

2017-05-01

Trauma centers need objective feedback on performance to inform quality improvement efforts. The Trauma Quality Improvement Program recently published recommended methodology for case mix adjustment and benchmarking performance. We tested the feasibility of applying this methodology to develop risk-adjusted mortality models for a statewide trauma system. We performed a retrospective cohort study of patients ≥16 years old at Pennsylvania trauma centers from 2011 to 2013 (n = 100,278). Our main outcome measure was observed-to-expected mortality ratios (overall and within blunt, penetrating, multisystem, isolated head, and geriatric subgroups). Patient demographic variables, physiology, mechanism of injury, transfer status, injury severity, and pre-existing conditions were included as predictor variables. The statistical model had excellent discrimination (area under the curve = 0.94). Funnel plots of observed-to-expected identified five centers with lower than expected mortality and two centers with higher than expected mortality. No centers were outliers for management of penetrating trauma, but five centers had lower and three had higher than expected mortality for blunt trauma. It is feasible to use Trauma Quality Improvement Program methodology to develop risk-adjusted models for statewide trauma systems. Even with smaller numbers of trauma centers that are available in national datasets, it is possible to identify high and low outliers in performance.

The Predictive Validity of the Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability (START) for Multiple Adverse Outcomes in a Secure Psychiatric Inpatient Setting.

PubMed

O'Shea, Laura E; Picchioni, Marco M; Dickens, Geoffrey L

2016-04-01

The Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability (START) aims to assist mental health practitioners to estimate an individual's short-term risk for a range of adverse outcomes via structured consideration of their risk ("Vulnerabilities") and protective factors ("Strengths") in 20 areas. It has demonstrated predictive validity for aggression but this is less established for other outcomes. We collated START assessments for N = 200 adults in a secure mental health hospital and ascertained 3-month risk event incidence using the START Outcomes Scale. The specific risk estimates, which are the tool developers' suggested method of overall assessment, predicted aggression, self-harm/suicidality, and victimization, and had incremental validity over the Strength and Vulnerability scales for these outcomes. The Strength scale had incremental validity over the Vulnerability scale for aggressive outcomes; therefore, consideration of protective factors had demonstrable value in their prediction. Further evidence is required to support use of the START for the full range of outcomes it aims to predict. © The Author(s) 2015.

Use of risk-adjusted CUSUM charts to monitor 30-day mortality in Danish hospitals.

PubMed

Rasmussen, Thomas Bøjer; Ulrichsen, Sinna Pilgaard; Nørgaard, Mette

2018-01-01

Monitoring hospital outcomes and clinical processes as a measure of clinical performance is an integral part of modern health care. The risk-adjusted cumulative sum (CUSUM) chart is a frequently used sequential analysis technique that can be implemented to monitor a wide range of different types of outcomes. The aim of this study was to describe how risk-adjusted CUSUM charts based on population-based nationwide medical registers were used to monitor 30-day mortality in Danish hospitals and to give an example on how alarms of increased hospital mortality from the charts can guide further in-depth analyses. We used routinely collected administrative data from the Danish National Patient Registry and the Danish Civil Registration System to create risk-adjusted CUSUM charts. We monitored 30-day mortality after hospital admission with one of 77 selected diagnoses in 24 hospital units in Denmark in 2015. The charts were set to detect a 50% increase in 30-day mortality, and control limits were determined by simulations. Among 1,085,576 hospital admissions, 441,352 admissions had one of the 77 selected diagnoses as their primary diagnosis and were included in the risk-adjusted CUSUM charts. The charts yielded a total of eight alarms of increased mortality. The median of the hospitals' estimated average time to detect a 50% increase in 30-day mortality was 50 days (interquartile interval, 43;54). In the selected example of an alarm, descriptive analyses indicated performance problems with 30-day mortality following hip fracture surgery and diagnosis of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. The presented implementation of risk-adjusted CUSUM charts can detect significant increases in 30-day mortality within 2 months, on average, in most Danish hospitals. Together with descriptive analyses, it was possible to use an alarm from a risk-adjusted CUSUM chart to identify potential performance problems.

Risk-adjusted capitation payments for catastrophic risks based on multi-year prior costs.

PubMed

van Barneveld, E M; van Vliet, R C; van de Ven, W P

1997-02-01

In many countries regulated competition among health insurance companies has recently been proposed or implemented. A crucial issue is whether or not the benefits package offered by competing insurers should also cover catastrophic risks (like several forms of expensive long-term care) in addition to non-catastrophic risks (like hospital care and physician services). In 1988 the Dutch government proposed compulsory national health insurance based on regulated competition among insurer as well as among providers of care. The competing insurers should offer a benefits package covering both non-catastrophic risks and catastrophic risks. The insurers would be largely financed via risk-adjusted capitation payments. The government intended to use a capitation formula that is, besides some demographic variables, based on multi-year prior costs. This paper presents the results of an explorative empirical analysis of the possible consequences of such a capitation formula for catastrophic risks. The main conclusion is that this formula would be inadequate because it would leave ample room for cream skimming.

Quantifying the impact of time-varying baseline risk adjustment in the self-controlled risk interval design.

PubMed

Li, Lingling; Kulldorff, Martin; Russek-Cohen, Estelle; Kawai, Alison Tse; Hua, Wei

2015-12-01

The self-controlled risk interval design is commonly used to assess the association between an acute exposure and an adverse event of interest, implicitly adjusting for fixed, non-time-varying covariates. Explicit adjustment needs to be made for time-varying covariates, for example, age in young children. It can be performed via either a fixed or random adjustment. The random-adjustment approach can provide valid point and interval estimates but requires access to individual-level data for an unexposed baseline sample. The fixed-adjustment approach does not have this requirement and will provide a valid point estimate but may underestimate the variance. We conducted a comprehensive simulation study to evaluate their performance. We designed the simulation study using empirical data from the Food and Drug Administration-sponsored Mini-Sentinel Post-licensure Rapid Immunization Safety Monitoring Rotavirus Vaccines and Intussusception study in children 5-36.9 weeks of age. The time-varying confounder is age. We considered a variety of design parameters including sample size, relative risk, time-varying baseline risks, and risk interval length. The random-adjustment approach has very good performance in almost all considered settings. The fixed-adjustment approach can be used as a good alternative when the number of events used to estimate the time-varying baseline risks is at least the number of events used to estimate the relative risk, which is almost always the case. We successfully identified settings in which the fixed-adjustment approach can be used as a good alternative and provided guidelines on the selection and implementation of appropriate analyses for the self-controlled risk interval design. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Health-based risk adjustment: improving the pharmacy-based cost group model by adding diagnostic cost groups.

PubMed

Prinsze, Femmeke J; van Vliet, René C J A

Since 1991, risk-adjusted premium subsidies have existed in the Dutch social health insurance sector, which covered about two-thirds of the population until 2006. In 2002, pharmacy-based cost groups (PCGs) were included in the demographic risk adjustment model, which improved the goodness-of-fit, as measured by the R2, to 11.5%. The model's R2 reached 22.8% in 2004, when inpatient diagnostic information was added in the form of diagnostic cost groups (DCGs). PCGs and DCGs appear to be complementary in their ability to predict future costs. PCGs particularly improve the R2 for outpatient expenses, whereas DCGs improve the R2 for inpatient expenses. In 2006, this system of risk-adjusted premium subsidies was extended to cover the entire population.

Assessing risk-adjustment approaches under non-random selection.

PubMed

Luft, Harold S; Dudley, R Adams

2004-01-01

Various approaches have been proposed to adjust for differences in enrollee risk in health plans. Because risk-selection strategies may have different effects on enrollment, we simulated three types of selection--dumping, skimming, and stinting. Concurrent diagnosis-based risk adjustment, and a hybrid using concurrent adjustment for about 8% of the cases and prospective adjustment for the rest, perform markedly better than prospective or demographic adjustments, both in terms of R2 and the extent to which plans experience unwarranted gains or losses. The simulation approach offers a valuable tool for analysts in assessing various risk-adjustment strategies under different selection situations.

A population-based validation study of the DCIS Score predicting recurrence risk in individuals treated by breast-conserving surgery alone.

PubMed

Rakovitch, Eileen; Nofech-Mozes, Sharon; Hanna, Wedad; Baehner, Frederick L; Saskin, Refik; Butler, Steven M; Tuck, Alan; Sengupta, Sandip; Elavathil, Leela; Jani, Prashant A; Bonin, Michel; Chang, Martin C; Robertson, Susan J; Slodkowska, Elzbieta; Fong, Cindy; Anderson, Joseph M; Jamshidian, Farid; Miller, Dave P; Cherbavaz, Diana B; Shak, Steven; Paszat, Lawrence

2015-07-01

Validated biomarkers are needed to improve risk assessment and treatment decision-making for women with ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) of the breast. The Oncotype DX DCIS Score (DS) was shown to predict the risk of local recurrence (LR) in individuals with low-risk DCIS treated by breast-conserving surgery (BCS) alone. Our objective was to confirm these results in a larger population-based cohort of individuals. We used an established population-based cohort of individuals diagnosed with DCIS treated with BCS alone from 1994 to 2003 with validation of treatment and outcomes. Central pathology assessment excluded cases with invasive cancer, DCIS < 2 mm or positive margins. Cox model was used to determine the relationship between independent covariates, the DS (hazard ratio (HR)/50 Cp units (U)) and LR. Tumor blocks were collected for 828 patients. Final evaluable population includes 718 cases, of whom 571 had negative margins. Median follow-up was 9.6 years. 100 cases developed LR following BCS alone (DCIS, N = 44; invasive, N = 57). In the primary pre-specified analysis, the DS was associated with any LR (DCIS or invasive) in ER+ patients (HR 2.26; P < 0.001) and in all patients regardless of ER status (HR 2.15; P < 0.001). DCIS Score provided independent information on LR risk beyond clinical and pathologic variables including size, age, grade, necrosis, multifocality, and subtype (adjusted HR 1.68; P = 0.02). DCIS was associated with invasive LR (HR 1.78; P = 0.04) and DCIS LR (HR 2.43; P = 0.005). The DCIS Score independently predicts and quantifies individualized recurrence risk in a population of patients with pure DCIS treated by BCS alone.

Validation of a novel laparoscopic adjustable gastric band simulator.

PubMed

Sankaranarayanan, Ganesh; Adair, James D; Halic, Tansel; Gromski, Mark A; Lu, Zhonghua; Ahn, Woojin; Jones, Daniel B; De, Suvranu

2011-04-01

Morbid obesity accounts for more than 90,000 deaths per year in the United States. Laparoscopic adjustable gastric banding (LAGB) is the second most common weight loss procedure performed in the US and the most common in Europe and Australia. Simulation in surgical training is a rapidly advancing field that has been adopted by many to prepare surgeons for surgical techniques and procedures. The aim of our study was to determine face, construct, and content validity for a novel virtual reality laparoscopic adjustable gastric band simulator. Twenty-eight subjects were categorized into two groups (expert and novice), determined by their skill level in laparoscopic surgery. Experts consisted of subjects who had at least 4 years of laparoscopic training and operative experience. Novices consisted of subjects with medical training but with less than 4 years of laparoscopic training. The subjects used the virtual reality laparoscopic adjustable band surgery simulator. They were automatically scored according to various tasks. The subjects then completed a questionnaire to evaluate face and content validity. On a 5-point Likert scale (1 = lowest score, 5 = highest score), the mean score for visual realism was 4.00 ± 0.67 and the mean score for realism of the interface and tool movements was 4.07 ± 0.77 (face validity). There were significant differences in the performances of the two subject groups (expert and novice) based on total scores (p < 0.001) (construct validity). Mean score for utility of the simulator, as addressed by the expert group, was 4.50 ± 0.71 (content validity). We created a virtual reality laparoscopic adjustable gastric band simulator. Our initial results demonstrate excellent face, construct, and content validity findings. To our knowledge, this is the first virtual reality simulator with haptic feedback for training residents and surgeons in the laparoscopic adjustable gastric banding procedure.

Risk-based Methodology for Validation of Pharmaceutical Batch Processes.

PubMed

Wiles, Frederick

2013-01-01

or runs required to demonstrate that a pharmaceutical process is operating in a validated state should be based on sound statistical principles. The old rule of "three consecutive batches and you're done" is no longer sufficient. The guidance, however, does not provide any specific methodology for determining the number of runs required, and little has been published to augment this shortcoming. The paper titled "Risk-based Methodology for Validation of Pharmaceutical Batch Processes" describes a statistically sound methodology for determining when a statistically valid number of validation runs has been acquired based on risk assessment and calculation of process capability.

Development and Evaluation of an Automated Machine Learning Algorithm for In-Hospital Mortality Risk Adjustment Among Critical Care Patients.

PubMed

Delahanty, Ryan J; Kaufman, David; Jones, Spencer S

2018-06-01

Risk adjustment algorithms for ICU mortality are necessary for measuring and improving ICU performance. Existing risk adjustment algorithms are not widely adopted. Key barriers to adoption include licensing and implementation costs as well as labor costs associated with human-intensive data collection. Widespread adoption of electronic health records makes automated risk adjustment feasible. Using modern machine learning methods and open source tools, we developed and evaluated a retrospective risk adjustment algorithm for in-hospital mortality among ICU patients. The Risk of Inpatient Death score can be fully automated and is reliant upon data elements that are generated in the course of usual hospital processes. One hundred thirty-one ICUs in 53 hospitals operated by Tenet Healthcare. A cohort of 237,173 ICU patients discharged between January 2014 and December 2016. The data were randomly split into training (36 hospitals), and validation (17 hospitals) data sets. Feature selection and model training were carried out using the training set while the discrimination, calibration, and accuracy of the model were assessed in the validation data set. Model discrimination was evaluated based on the area under receiver operating characteristic curve; accuracy and calibration were assessed via adjusted Brier scores and visual analysis of calibration curves. Seventeen features, including a mix of clinical and administrative data elements, were retained in the final model. The Risk of Inpatient Death score demonstrated excellent discrimination (area under receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.94) and calibration (adjusted Brier score = 52.8%) in the validation dataset; these results compare favorably to the published performance statistics for the most commonly used mortality risk adjustment algorithms. Low adoption of ICU mortality risk adjustment algorithms impedes progress toward increasing the value of the healthcare delivered in ICUs. The Risk of Inpatient Death

Web-based questionnaires to assess perinatal outcome proved to be valid.

PubMed

van Gelder, Marleen M H J; Vorstenbosch, Saskia; Derks, Lineke; Te Winkel, Bernke; van Puijenbroek, Eugène P; Roeleveld, Nel

2017-10-01

The objective of this study was to validate a Web-based questionnaire completed by the mother to assess perinatal outcome used in a prospective cohort study. For 882 women with an estimated date of delivery between February 2012 and February 2015 who participated in the PRegnancy and Infant DEvelopment (PRIDE) Study, we compared data on pregnancy outcome, including mode of delivery, plurality, gestational age, birth weight and length, head circumference, birth defects, and infant sex, from Web-based questionnaires administered to the mothers 2 months after delivery with data from obstetric records. For continuous variables, we calculated intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs), whereas sensitivity and specificity were determined for categorical variables. We observed only very small differences between the two methods of data collection for gestational age (ICC, 0.91; 95% CI, 0.90-0.92), birth weight (ICC, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.95-0.96), birth length (ICC, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.87-0.92), and head circumference (ICC, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.80-0.93). Agreement between the Web-based questionnaire and obstetric records was high as well, with sensitivity ranging between 0.86 (termination of pregnancy) and 1.00 (four outcomes) and specificity between 0.96 (term birth) and 1.00 (nine outcomes). Our study provides evidence that Web-based questionnaires could be considered as a valid complementary or alternative method of data collection. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Improving Risk Adjustment for Mortality After Pediatric Cardiac Surgery: The UK PRAiS2 Model.

PubMed

Rogers, Libby; Brown, Katherine L; Franklin, Rodney C; Ambler, Gareth; Anderson, David; Barron, David J; Crowe, Sonya; English, Kate; Stickley, John; Tibby, Shane; Tsang, Victor; Utley, Martin; Witter, Thomas; Pagel, Christina

2017-07-01

Partial Risk Adjustment in Surgery (PRAiS), a risk model for 30-day mortality after children's heart surgery, has been used by the UK National Congenital Heart Disease Audit to report expected risk-adjusted survival since 2013. This study aimed to improve the model by incorporating additional comorbidity and diagnostic information. The model development dataset was all procedures performed between 2009 and 2014 in all UK and Ireland congenital cardiac centers. The outcome measure was death within each 30-day surgical episode. Model development followed an iterative process of clinical discussion and development and assessment of models using logistic regression under 25 × 5 cross-validation. Performance was measured using Akaike information criterion, the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC), and calibration. The final model was assessed in an external 2014 to 2015 validation dataset. The development dataset comprised 21,838 30-day surgical episodes, with 539 deaths (mortality, 2.5%). The validation dataset comprised 4,207 episodes, with 97 deaths (mortality, 2.3%). The updated risk model included 15 procedural, 11 diagnostic, and 4 comorbidity groupings, and nonlinear functions of age and weight. Performance under cross-validation was: median AUC of 0.83 (range, 0.82 to 0.83), median calibration slope and intercept of 0.92 (range, 0.64 to 1.25) and -0.23 (range, -1.08 to 0.85) respectively. In the validation dataset, the AUC was 0.86 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.82 to 0.89), and the calibration slope and intercept were 1.01 (95% CI, 0.83 to 1.18) and 0.11 (95% CI, -0.45 to 0.67), respectively, showing excellent performance. A more sophisticated PRAiS2 risk model for UK use was developed with additional comorbidity and diagnostic information, alongside age and weight as nonlinear variables. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Nottingham Adjustment Scale: a validation study.

PubMed

Dodds, A G; Flannigan, H; Ng, L

1993-09-01

The concept of adjustment to acquired sight loss is examined in the context of existing loss models. An alternative conceptual framework is presented which addresses the 'blindness experience', and which suggests that the depression so frequently encountered in those losing their sight can be understood better by recourse to cognitive factors than to psychoanalytically based theories of grieving. A scale to measure psychological status before and after rehabilitation is described, its factorial validity is demonstrated, and its validity in enabling changes to be measured. Practitioners are encouraged to adopt a similar perspective in other areas of acquired disability.

Validation of the underlying assumptions of the quality-adjusted life-years outcome: results from the ECHOUTCOME European project.

PubMed

Beresniak, Ariel; Medina-Lara, Antonieta; Auray, Jean Paul; De Wever, Alain; Praet, Jean-Claude; Tarricone, Rosanna; Torbica, Aleksandra; Dupont, Danielle; Lamure, Michel; Duru, Gerard

2015-01-01

Quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) have been used since the 1980s as a standard health outcome measure for conducting cost-utility analyses, which are often inadequately labeled as 'cost-effectiveness analyses'. This synthetic outcome, which combines the quantity of life lived with its quality expressed as a preference score, is currently recommended as reference case by some health technology assessment (HTA) agencies. While critics of the QALY approach have expressed concerns about equity and ethical issues, surprisingly, very few have tested the basic methodological assumptions supporting the QALY equation so as to establish its scientific validity. The main objective of the ECHOUTCOME European project was to test the validity of the underlying assumptions of the QALY outcome and its relevance in health decision making. An experiment has been conducted with 1,361 subjects from Belgium, France, Italy, and the UK. The subjects were asked to express their preferences regarding various hypothetical health states derived from combining different health states with time durations in order to compare observed utility values of the couples (health state, time) and calculated utility values using the QALY formula. Observed and calculated utility values of the couples (health state, time) were significantly different, confirming that preferences expressed by the respondents were not consistent with the QALY theoretical assumptions. This European study contributes to establishing that the QALY multiplicative model is an invalid measure. This explains why costs/QALY estimates may vary greatly, leading to inconsistent recommendations relevant to providing access to innovative medicines and health technologies. HTA agencies should consider other more robust methodological approaches to guide reimbursement decisions.

Validation of a Novel Laparoscopic Adjustable Gastric Band Simulator

PubMed Central

Sankaranarayanan, Ganesh; Adair, James D.; Halic, Tansel; Gromski, Mark A.; Lu, Zhonghua; Ahn, Woojin; Jones, Daniel B.; De, Suvranu

2011-01-01

Background Morbid obesity accounts for more than 90,000 deaths per year in the United States. Laparoscopic adjustable gastric banding (LAGB) is the second most common weight loss procedure performed in the US and the most common in Europe and Australia. Simulation in surgical training is a rapidly advancing field that has been adopted by many to prepare surgeons for surgical techniques and procedures. Study Aim The aim of our study was to determine face, construct and content validity for a novel virtual reality laparoscopic adjustable gastric band simulator. Methods Twenty-eight subjects were categorized into two groups (Expert and Novice), determined by their skill level in laparoscopic surgery. Experts consisted of subjects who had at least four years of laparoscopic training and operative experience. Novices consisted of subjects with medical training, but with less than four years of laparoscopic training. The subjects performed the virtual reality laparoscopic adjustable band surgery simulator. They were automatically scored, according to various tasks. The subjects then completed a questionnaire to evaluate face and content validity. Results On a 5-point Likert scale (1 – lowest score, 5 – highest score), the mean score for visual realism was 4.00 ± 0.67 and the mean score for realism of the interface and tool movements was 4.07 ± 0.77 [Face Validity]. There were significant differences in the performance of the two subject groups (Expert and Novice), based on total scores (p<0.001) [Construct Validity]. Mean scores for utility of the simulator, as addressed by the Expert group, was 4.50 ± 0.71 [Content Validity]. Conclusion We created a virtual reality laparoscopic adjustable gastric band simulator. Our initial results demonstrate excellent face, construct and content validity findings. To our knowledge, this is the first virtual reality simulator with haptic feedback for training residents and surgeons in the laparoscopic adjustable gastric banding

Infant and toddler disease score was useful for risk of hospitalization based on data from administrative claims.

PubMed

Mikaeloff, Yann; Moride, Yola; Khoshnood, Babak; Weill, Alain; Bréart, Gérard

2007-07-01

To develop the infant and toddler disease score (IDS), a population-based predictive tool of morbidity status in infants and toddlers, based on data from administrative claims. A prospective cohort study was conducted, including 35,580 children less than 2 years of age in June 2003 from the French "ERASME" database (mean follow-up 13 months). The outcome variable was incident hospitalization during the follow-up year, that is, before the second birthday for infants and before the third for toddlers. Risk factors before inclusion (age, health care use, medications) were assessed in a 50% random sample (construction sample) by a logistic regression model. Beta coefficients were summed up to obtain the IDS. The IDS was then validated for the remaining 50% of the study population (validation sample). The major variables significantly associated with the outcome were long-term disability, younger age, and >or=1 hospitalization before inclusion. The risks of hospitalization estimated by the IDS were concordant in the construction and validation samples. The IDS is a useful index for the risk of hospitalization of infants and toddlers in relation to their morbidity status and may be used for adjustment in pharmacoepidemiologic studies using administrative claims databases.

[Risk adjusted assessment of quality of perinatal centers - results of perinatal/neonatal quality surveillance in Saxonia].

PubMed

Koch, R; Gmyrek, D; Vogtmann, Ch

2005-12-01

The weak point of the country-wide perinatal/neonatal quality surveillance as a tool for evaluation of achievements of a distinct clinic, is the ignorance of interhospital differences in the case-mix of patients. Therefore, that approach can not result in a reliable bench marking. To adjust the results of quality assessment of different hospitals according to their risk profile of patients by multivariate analysis. The perinatal/neonatal data base of 12.783 newborns of the saxonian quality surveillance from 1998 to 2000 was analyzed. 4 relevant quality indicators of newborn outcome -- a) severe intraventricular hemorrhage in preterm infants < 1500 g, b) death in hospital of preterm infants < 1500 g, c) death in newborns with birth weight > 2500 g and d) hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy -- were targeted to find out specific risk predictors by considering 26 risk factors. A logistic regression model was used to develop the risk predictors. Risk predictors for the 4 quality indicators could be described by 3 - 9 out of 26 analyzed risk factors. The AUC (ROC)-values for these quality indicators were 82, 89, 89 and 89 %, what signifies their reliability. Using the new specific predictors for calculation the risk adjusted incidence rates of quality indicator yielded in some remarkable changes. The apparent differences in the outcome criteria of analyzed hospitals were found to be much less pronounced. The application of the proposed method for risk adjustment of quality indicators makes it possible to perform a more objective comparison of neonatal outcome criteria between different hospitals or regions.

Risk scores for outcome in bacterial meningitis: Systematic review and external validation study.

PubMed

Bijlsma, Merijn W; Brouwer, Matthijs C; Bossuyt, Patrick M; Heymans, Martijn W; van der Ende, Arie; Tanck, Michael W T; van de Beek, Diederik

2016-11-01

To perform an external validation study of risk scores, identified through a systematic review, predicting outcome in community-acquired bacterial meningitis. MEDLINE and EMBASE were searched for articles published between January 1960 and August 2014. Performance was evaluated in 2108 episodes of adult community-acquired bacterial meningitis from two nationwide prospective cohort studies by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), the calibration curve, calibration slope or Hosmer-Lemeshow test, and the distribution of calculated risks. Nine risk scores were identified predicting death, neurological deficit or death, or unfavorable outcome at discharge in bacterial meningitis, pneumococcal meningitis and invasive meningococcal disease. Most studies had shortcomings in design, analyses, and reporting. Evaluation showed AUCs of 0.59 (0.57-0.61) and 0.74 (0.71-0.76) in bacterial meningitis, 0.67 (0.64-0.70) in pneumococcal meningitis, and 0.81 (0.73-0.90), 0.82 (0.74-0.91), 0.84 (0.75-0.93), 0.84 (0.76-0.93), 0.85 (0.75-0.95), and 0.90 (0.83-0.98) in meningococcal meningitis. Calibration curves showed adequate agreement between predicted and observed outcomes for four scores, but statistical tests indicated poor calibration of all risk scores. One score could be recommended for the interpretation and design of bacterial meningitis studies. None of the existing scores performed well enough to recommend routine use in individual patient management. Copyright © 2016 The British Infection Association. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A simple signaling rule for variable life-adjusted display derived from an equivalent risk-adjusted CUSUM chart.

PubMed

Wittenberg, Philipp; Gan, Fah Fatt; Knoth, Sven

2018-04-17

The variable life-adjusted display (VLAD) is the first risk-adjusted graphical procedure proposed in the literature for monitoring the performance of a surgeon. It displays the cumulative sum of expected minus observed deaths. It has since become highly popular because the statistic plotted is easy to understand. But it is also easy to misinterpret a surgeon's performance by utilizing the VLAD, potentially leading to grave consequences. The problem of misinterpretation is essentially caused by the variance of the VLAD's statistic that increases with sample size. In order for the VLAD to be truly useful, a simple signaling rule is desperately needed. Various forms of signaling rules have been developed, but they are usually quite complicated. Without signaling rules, making inferences using the VLAD alone is difficult if not misleading. In this paper, we establish an equivalence between a VLAD with V-mask and a risk-adjusted cumulative sum (RA-CUSUM) chart based on the difference between the estimated probability of death and surgical outcome. Average run length analysis based on simulation shows that this particular RA-CUSUM chart has similar performance as compared to the established RA-CUSUM chart based on the log-likelihood ratio statistic obtained by testing the odds ratio of death. We provide a simple design procedure for determining the V-mask parameters based on a resampling approach. Resampling from a real data set ensures that these parameters can be estimated appropriately. Finally, we illustrate the monitoring of a real surgeon's performance using VLAD with V-mask. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Diagnosis-Based Risk Adjustment for Medicare Capitation Payments

PubMed Central

Ellis, Randall P.; Pope, Gregory C.; Iezzoni, Lisa I.; Ayanian, John Z.; Bates, David W.; Burstin, Helen; Ash, Arlene S.

1996-01-01

Using 1991-92 data for a 5-percent Medicare sample, we develop, estimate, and evaluate risk-adjustment models that utilize diagnostic information from both inpatient and ambulatory claims to adjust payments for aged and disabled Medicare enrollees. Hierarchical coexisting conditions (HCC) models achieve greater explanatory power than diagnostic cost group (DCG) models by taking account of multiple coexisting medical conditions. Prospective models predict average costs of individuals with chronic conditions nearly as well as concurrent models. All models predict medical costs far more accurately than the current health maintenance organization (HMO) payment formula. PMID:10172666

Prediction models for the risk of spontaneous preterm birth based on maternal characteristics: a systematic review and independent external validation.

PubMed

Meertens, Linda J E; van Montfort, Pim; Scheepers, Hubertina C J; van Kuijk, Sander M J; Aardenburg, Robert; Langenveld, Josje; van Dooren, Ivo M A; Zwaan, Iris M; Spaanderman, Marc E A; Smits, Luc J M

2018-04-17

Prediction models may contribute to personalized risk-based management of women at high risk of spontaneous preterm delivery. Although prediction models are published frequently, often with promising results, external validation generally is lacking. We performed a systematic review of prediction models for the risk of spontaneous preterm birth based on routine clinical parameters. Additionally, we externally validated and evaluated the clinical potential of the models. Prediction models based on routinely collected maternal parameters obtainable during first 16 weeks of gestation were eligible for selection. Risk of bias was assessed according to the CHARMS guidelines. We validated the selected models in a Dutch multicenter prospective cohort study comprising 2614 unselected pregnant women. Information on predictors was obtained by a web-based questionnaire. Predictive performance of the models was quantified by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and calibration plots for the outcomes spontaneous preterm birth <37 weeks and <34 weeks of gestation. Clinical value was evaluated by means of decision curve analysis and calculating classification accuracy for different risk thresholds. Four studies describing five prediction models fulfilled the eligibility criteria. Risk of bias assessment revealed a moderate to high risk of bias in three studies. The AUC of the models ranged from 0.54 to 0.67 and from 0.56 to 0.70 for the outcomes spontaneous preterm birth <37 weeks and <34 weeks of gestation, respectively. A subanalysis showed that the models discriminated poorly (AUC 0.51-0.56) for nulliparous women. Although we recalibrated the models, two models retained evidence of overfitting. The decision curve analysis showed low clinical benefit for the best performing models. This review revealed several reporting and methodological shortcomings of published prediction models for spontaneous preterm birth. Our external validation study

Hospital Variation in Risk-Adjusted Pediatric Sepsis Mortality.

PubMed

Ames, Stefanie G; Davis, Billie S; Angus, Derek C; Carcillo, Joseph A; Kahn, Jeremy M

2018-05-01

With continued attention to pediatric sepsis at both the clinical and policy levels, it is important to understand the quality of hospitals in terms of their pediatric sepsis mortality. We sought to develop a method to evaluate hospital pediatric sepsis performance using 30-day risk-adjusted mortality and to assess hospital variation in risk-adjusted sepsis mortality in a large state-wide sample. Retrospective cohort study using administrative claims data. Acute care hospitals in the state of Pennsylvania from 2011 to 2013. Patients between the ages of 0-19 years admitted to a hospital with sepsis defined using validated International Classification of Diseases, Ninth revision, Clinical Modification, diagnosis and procedure codes. None. During the study period, there were 9,013 pediatric sepsis encounters in 153 hospitals. After excluding repeat visits and hospitals with annual patient volumes too small to reliably assess hospital performance, there were 6,468 unique encounters in 24 hospitals. The overall unadjusted mortality rate was 6.5% (range across all hospitals: 1.5-11.9%). The median number of pediatric sepsis cases per hospital was 67 (range across all hospitals: 30-1,858). A hierarchical logistic regression model for 30-day risk-adjusted mortality controlling for patient age, gender, emergency department admission, infection source, presence of organ dysfunction at admission, and presence of chronic complex conditions showed good discrimination (C-statistic = 0.80) and calibration (slope and intercept of calibration plot: 0.95 and -0.01, respectively). The hospital-specific risk-adjusted mortality rates calculated from this model varied minimally, ranging from 6.0% to 7.4%. Although a risk-adjustment model for 30-day pediatric sepsis mortality had good performance characteristics, the use of risk-adjusted mortality rates as a hospital quality measure in pediatric sepsis is not useful due to the low volume of cases at most hospitals. Novel metrics to

Novel Risk Engine for Diabetes Progression and Mortality in USA: Building, Relating, Assessing, and Validating Outcomes (BRAVO).

PubMed

Shao, Hui; Fonseca, Vivian; Stoecker, Charles; Liu, Shuqian; Shi, Lizheng

2018-05-03

There is an urgent need to update diabetes prediction, which has relied on the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) that dates back to 1970 s' European populations. The objective of this study was to develop a risk engine with multiple risk equations using a recent patient cohort with type 2 diabetes mellitus reflective of the US population. A total of 17 risk equations for predicting diabetes-related microvascular and macrovascular events, hypoglycemia, mortality, and progression of diabetes risk factors were estimated using the data from the Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes (ACCORD) trial (n = 10,251). Internal and external validation processes were used to assess performance of the Building, Relating, Assessing, and Validating Outcomes (BRAVO) risk engine. One-way sensitivity analysis was conducted to examine the impact of risk factors on mortality at the population level. The BRAVO risk engine added several risk factors including severe hypoglycemia and common US racial/ethnicity categories compared with the UKPDS risk engine. The BRAVO risk engine also modeled mortality escalation associated with intensive glycemic control (i.e., glycosylated hemoglobin < 6.5%). External validation showed a good prediction power on 28 endpoints observed from other clinical trials (slope = 1.071, R 2  = 0.86). The BRAVO risk engine for the US diabetes cohort provides an alternative to the UKPDS risk engine. It can be applied to assist clinical and policy decision making such as cost-effective resource allocation in USA.

Evidence-Based Guidelines for Fatigue Risk Management in EMS: Formulating Research Questions and Selecting Outcomes.

PubMed

Patterson, P Daniel; Higgins, J Stephen; Lang, Eddy S; Runyon, Michael S; Barger, Laura K; Studnek, Jonathan R; Moore, Charity G; Robinson, Kathy; Gainor, Dia; Infinger, Allison; Weiss, Patricia M; Sequeira, Denisse J; Martin-Gill, Christian

2017-01-01

Greater than half of Emergency Medical Services (EMS) personnel report work-related fatigue, yet there are no guidelines for the management of fatigue in EMS. A novel process has been established for evidence-based guideline (EBG) development germane to clinical EMS questions. This process has not yet been applied to operational EMS questions like fatigue risk management. The objective of this study was to develop content valid research questions in the Population, Intervention, Comparison, and Outcome (PICO) framework, and select outcomes to guide systematic reviews and development of EBGs for EMS fatigue risk management. We adopted the National Prehospital EBG Model Process and Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) framework for developing, implementing, and evaluating EBGs in the prehospital care setting. In accordance with steps one and two of the Model Process, we searched for existing EBGs, developed a multi-disciplinary expert panel and received external input. Panelists completed an iterative process to formulate research questions. We used the Content Validity Index (CVI) to score relevance and clarity of candidate PICO questions. The panel completed multiple rounds of question editing and used a CVI benchmark of ≥0.78 to indicate acceptable levels of clarity and relevance. Outcomes for each PICO question were rated from 1 = less important to 9 = critical. Panelists formulated 13 candidate PICO questions, of which 6 were eliminated or merged with other questions. Panelists reached consensus on seven PICO questions (n = 1 diagnosis and n = 6 intervention). Final CVI scores of relevance ranged from 0.81 to 1.00. Final CVI scores of clarity ranged from 0.88 to 1.00. The mean number of outcomes rated as critical, important, and less important by PICO question was 0.7 (SD 0.7), 5.4 (SD 1.4), and 3.6 (SD 1.9), respectively. Patient and personnel safety were rated as critical for most PICO questions. PICO questions and

Alternative evaluation metrics for risk adjustment methods.

PubMed

Park, Sungchul; Basu, Anirban

2018-06-01

Risk adjustment is instituted to counter risk selection by accurately equating payments with expected expenditures. Traditional risk-adjustment methods are designed to estimate accurate payments at the group level. However, this generates residual risks at the individual level, especially for high-expenditure individuals, thereby inducing health plans to avoid those with high residual risks. To identify an optimal risk-adjustment method, we perform a comprehensive comparison of prediction accuracies at the group level, at the tail distributions, and at the individual level across 19 estimators: 9 parametric regression, 7 machine learning, and 3 distributional estimators. Using the 2013-2014 MarketScan database, we find that no one estimator performs best in all prediction accuracies. Generally, machine learning and distribution-based estimators achieve higher group-level prediction accuracy than parametric regression estimators. However, parametric regression estimators show higher tail distribution prediction accuracy and individual-level prediction accuracy, especially at the tails of the distribution. This suggests that there is a trade-off in selecting an appropriate risk-adjustment method between estimating accurate payments at the group level and lower residual risks at the individual level. Our results indicate that an optimal method cannot be determined solely on the basis of statistical metrics but rather needs to account for simulating plans' risk selective behaviors. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Predictive Validity of Curriculum-Embedded Measures on Outcomes of Kindergarteners Identified as At Risk for Reading Difficulty

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Oslund, Eric L.; Hagan-Burke, Shanna; Simmons, Deborah C.; Clemens, Nathan H.; Simmons, Leslie E.; Taylor, Aaron B.; Kwok, Oi-man; Coyne, Michael D.

2017-01-01

This study examined the predictive validity of formative assessments embedded in a Tier 2 intervention curriculum for kindergarten students identified as at risk for reading difficulty. We examined when (i.e., months during the school year) measures could predict reading outcomes gathered at the end of kindergarten and whether the predictive…

[Risk-adjusted assessment: late-onset infection in neonates].

PubMed

Gmyrek, Dieter; Koch, Rainer; Vogtmann, Christoph; Kaiser, Annette; Friedrich, Annette

2011-01-01

The weak point of the countrywide perinatal/neonatal quality surveillance is the ignorance of interhospital differences in the case mix of patients. As a result, this approach does not produce reliable benchmarking. The objective of this study was to adjust the result of the late-onset infection incidence of different hospitals according to their risk profile of patients by multivariate analysis. The perinatal/neonatal database of 41,055 newborns of the Saxonian quality surveillance from 1998 to 2004 was analysed. Based on 18 possible risk factors, a logistic regression model was used to develop a specific risk predictor for the quality indicator "late-onset infection". The developed risk predictor for the incidence of late-onset infection could be described by 4 of the 18 analysed risk factors, namely gestational age, admission from home, hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy and B-streptococcal infection. The AUC(ROC) value of this quality indicator was 83.3%, which demonstrates its reliability. The hospital ranking based on the adjusted risk assessment was very different from hospital rankings before this adjustment. The average correction of ranking position was 4.96 for 35 clinics. The application of the risk adjustment method proposed here allows for a more objective comparison of the incidence of the quality indicator "late onset infection" among different hospitals. Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier GmbH.

Derivation, Validation and Application of a Pragmatic Risk Prediction Index for Benchmarking of Surgical Outcomes.

PubMed

Spence, Richard T; Chang, David C; Kaafarani, Haytham M A; Panieri, Eugenio; Anderson, Geoffrey A; Hutter, Matthew M

2018-02-01

Despite the existence of multiple validated risk assessment and quality benchmarking tools in surgery, their utility outside of high-income countries is limited. We sought to derive, validate and apply a scoring system that is both (1) feasible, and (2) reliably predicts mortality in a middle-income country (MIC) context. A 5-step methodology was used: (1) development of a de novo surgical outcomes database modeled around the American College of Surgeons' National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS-NSQIP) in South Africa (SA dataset), (2) use of the resultant data to identify all predictors of in-hospital death with more than 90% capture indicating feasibility of collection, (3) use these predictors to derive and validate an integer-based score that reliably predicts in-hospital death in the 2012 ACS-NSQIP, (4) apply the score in the original SA dataset and demonstrate its performance, (5) identify threshold cutoffs of the score to prompt action and drive quality improvement. Following step one-three above, the 13 point Codman's score was derived and validated on 211,737 and 109,079 patients, respectively, and includes: age 65 (1), partially or completely dependent functional status (1), preoperative transfusions ≥4 units (1), emergency operation (2), sepsis or septic shock (2) American Society of Anesthesia score ≥3 (3) and operative procedure (1-3). Application of the score to 373 patients in the SA dataset showed good discrimination and calibration to predict an in-hospital death. A Codman Score of 8 is an optimal cutoff point for defining expected and unexpected deaths. We have designed a novel risk prediction score specific for a MIC context. The Codman Score can prove useful for both (1) preoperative decision-making and (2) benchmarking the quality of surgical care in MIC's.

On the multiple imputation variance estimator for control-based and delta-adjusted pattern mixture models.

PubMed

Tang, Yongqiang

2017-12-01

Control-based pattern mixture models (PMM) and delta-adjusted PMMs are commonly used as sensitivity analyses in clinical trials with non-ignorable dropout. These PMMs assume that the statistical behavior of outcomes varies by pattern in the experimental arm in the imputation procedure, but the imputed data are typically analyzed by a standard method such as the primary analysis model. In the multiple imputation (MI) inference, Rubin's variance estimator is generally biased when the imputation and analysis models are uncongenial. One objective of the article is to quantify the bias of Rubin's variance estimator in the control-based and delta-adjusted PMMs for longitudinal continuous outcomes. These PMMs assume the same observed data distribution as the mixed effects model for repeated measures (MMRM). We derive analytic expressions for the MI treatment effect estimator and the associated Rubin's variance in these PMMs and MMRM as functions of the maximum likelihood estimator from the MMRM analysis and the observed proportion of subjects in each dropout pattern when the number of imputations is infinite. The asymptotic bias is generally small or negligible in the delta-adjusted PMM, but can be sizable in the control-based PMM. This indicates that the inference based on Rubin's rule is approximately valid in the delta-adjusted PMM. A simple variance estimator is proposed to ensure asymptotically valid MI inferences in these PMMs, and compared with the bootstrap variance. The proposed method is illustrated by the analysis of an antidepressant trial, and its performance is further evaluated via a simulation study. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

Risk adjustment for comparing hospital quality with surgery: how many variables are needed?

PubMed

Dimick, Justin B; Osborne, Nicholas H; Hall, Bruce L; Ko, Clifford Y; Birkmeyer, John D

2010-04-01

The American College of Surgeons' National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS NSQIP) will soon be reporting procedure-specific outcomes, and hopes to reduce the burden of data collection by collecting fewer variables. We sought to determine whether these changes threaten the robustness of the risk adjustment of hospital quality comparisons. We used prospective, clinical data from the ACS NSQIP from 2005 to 2007 (184 hospitals, 74,887 patients). For the 5 general surgery operations in the procedure-specific NSQIP, we compared the ability of the full model (21 variables), an intermediate model (12 variables), and a limited model (5 variables) to predict patient outcomes and to risk-adjust hospital outcomes. The intermediate and limited models were comparable with the full model in all analyses. In the assessment of patient risk, the limited and full models had very similar discrimination at the patient level (C-indices for all 5 procedures combined of 0.93 versus 0.91 for mortality and 0.78 versus 0.76 for morbidity) and showed good calibration across strata of patient risk. In assessing hospital-specific outcomes, results from the limited and full-risk models were highly correlated for both mortality (range 0.94 to 0.99 across the 5 operations) and morbidity (range 0.96 to 0.99). Procedure-specific hospital quality measures can be adequately risk-adjusted with a limited number of variables. In the context of the ACS NSQIP, moving to a more limited model will dramatically reduce the burden of data collection for participating hospitals. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Auditing Neonatal Intensive Care: Is PREM a Good Alternative to CRIB for Mortality Risk Adjustment in Premature Infants?

PubMed

Guenther, Kilian; Vach, Werner; Kachel, Walter; Bruder, Ingo; Hentschel, Roland

2015-01-01

Comparing outcomes at different neonatal intensive care units (NICUs) requires adjustment for intrinsic risk. The Clinical Risk Index for Babies (CRIB) is a widely used risk model, but it has been criticized for being affected by therapeutic decisions. The Prematurity Risk Evaluation Measure (PREM) is not supposed to be prone to treatment bias, but has not yet been validated. We aimed to validate the PREM, compare its accuracy to that of the original and modified versions of the CRIB and CRIB-II, and examine the congruence of risk categorization. Very-low-birth-weight (VLBW) infants with a gestational age (GA) <33 weeks, who were admitted to NICUs in Baden-Württemberg from 2003 to 2008, were identified from the German neonatal quality assurance program. CRIB, CRIB-II and PREM scores were calculated and modified. Omitting variables that directly reflected therapeutic decisions [the applied fraction of inspired oxygen (FiO2)] or that may have been prone to early-treatment bias (base excess and temperature), non-NICU-therapy-influenced scores were obtained. Score performance was assessed by the area under their ROC curve (AUC). The CRIB showed the largest AUC (0.89), which dropped significantly (to 0.85) after omitting the FiO2. The PREM birth condition model, PREM(bcm) (AUC 0.86), and the PREM birth model, PREM(bm) (AUC 0.82), also demonstrated good discrimination. PREM(bm) was superior to other non-therapy-affected scores and to GA, particularly in infants with <750 g birth weight. Congruence of risk categorization was low, especially among higher-risk cases. The CRIB score had the largest AUC, resulting from its inclusion of FiO2. PREM(bm), as the most accurate score among those unaffected by early treatment, seems to be a good alternative for strict risk adjustment in NICU auditing. It could be useful to combine scores. © 2015 S. Karger AG, Basel.

45 CFR 800.204 - Reinsurance, risk corridors, and risk adjustment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 3 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Reinsurance, risk corridors, and risk adjustment... Adjustment § 800.204 Reinsurance, risk corridors, and risk adjustment. (a) Transitional reinsurance program... transitional reinsurance program for the individual market. (b) Temporary risk corridors program. An MSPP...

45 CFR 800.204 - Reinsurance, risk corridors, and risk adjustment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 3 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Reinsurance, risk corridors, and risk adjustment... Adjustment § 800.204 Reinsurance, risk corridors, and risk adjustment. (a) Transitional reinsurance program... transitional reinsurance program for the individual market. (b) Temporary risk corridors program. An MSPP...

Suboptimal decision making by children with ADHD in the face of risk: Poor risk adjustment and delay aversion rather than general proneness to taking risks.

PubMed

Sørensen, Lin; Sonuga-Barke, Edmund; Eichele, Heike; van Wageningen, Heidi; Wollschlaeger, Daniel; Plessen, Kerstin Jessica

2017-02-01

Suboptimal decision making in the face of risk (DMR) in children with attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) may be mediated by deficits in a number of different neuropsychological processes. We investigated DMR in children with ADHD using the Cambridge Gambling Task (CGT) to distinguish difficulties in adjusting to changing probabilities of choice outcomes (so-called risk adjustment) from general risk proneness, and to distinguish these 2 processes from delay aversion (the tendency to choose the least delayed option) and impairments in the ability to reflect on choice options. Based on previous research, we predicted that suboptimal performance on this task in children with ADHD would be primarily relate to problems with risk adjustment and delay aversion rather than general risk proneness. Drug naïve children with ADHD (n = 36), 8 to 12 years, and an age-matched group of typically developing children (n = 34) performed the CGT. As predicted, children with ADHD were not more prone to making risky choices (i.e., risk proneness). However, they had difficulty adjusting to changing risk levels and were more delay aversive-with these 2 effects being correlated. Our findings add to the growing body of evidence that children with ADHD do not favor risk taking per se when performing gambling tasks, but rather may lack the cognitive skills or motivational style to appraise changing patterns of risk effectively. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Sensitivity analysis for missing dichotomous outcome data in multi-visit randomized clinical trial with randomization-based covariance adjustment.

PubMed

Li, Siying; Koch, Gary G; Preisser, John S; Lam, Diana; Sanchez-Kam, Matilde

2017-01-01

Dichotomous endpoints in clinical trials have only two possible outcomes, either directly or via categorization of an ordinal or continuous observation. It is common to have missing data for one or more visits during a multi-visit study. This paper presents a closed form method for sensitivity analysis of a randomized multi-visit clinical trial that possibly has missing not at random (MNAR) dichotomous data. Counts of missing data are redistributed to the favorable and unfavorable outcomes mathematically to address possibly informative missing data. Adjusted proportion estimates and their closed form covariance matrix estimates are provided. Treatment comparisons over time are addressed with Mantel-Haenszel adjustment for a stratification factor and/or randomization-based adjustment for baseline covariables. The application of such sensitivity analyses is illustrated with an example. An appendix outlines an extension of the methodology to ordinal endpoints.

45 CFR 153.610 - Risk adjustment issuer requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... HHS on behalf of the State. (b) Risk adjustment data storage. An issuer that offers risk adjustment... adjustment issuer requirements. (a) Data requirements. An issuer that offers risk adjustment covered plans must submit or make accessible all required risk adjustment data for those risk adjustment covered...

45 CFR 153.610 - Risk adjustment issuer requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... HHS on behalf of the State. (b) Risk adjustment data storage. An issuer that offers risk adjustment... adjustment issuer requirements. (a) Data requirements. An issuer that offers risk adjustment covered plans must submit or make accessible all required risk adjustment data for those risk adjustment covered...

45 CFR 153.610 - Risk adjustment issuer requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... HHS on behalf of the State. (b) Risk adjustment data storage. An issuer that offers risk adjustment... adjustment issuer requirements. (a) Data requirements. An issuer that offers risk adjustment covered plans must submit or make accessible all required risk adjustment data for those risk adjustment covered...

The East London glaucoma prediction score: web-based validation of glaucoma risk screening tool

PubMed Central

Stephen, Cook; Benjamin, Longo-Mbenza

2013-01-01

AIM It is difficult for Optometrists and General Practitioners to know which patients are at risk. The East London glaucoma prediction score (ELGPS) is a web based risk calculator that has been developed to determine Glaucoma risk at the time of screening. Multiple risk factors that are available in a low tech environment are assessed to provide a risk assessment. This is extremely useful in settings where access to specialist care is difficult. Use of the calculator is educational. It is a free web based service. Data capture is user specific. METHOD The scoring system is a web based questionnaire that captures and subsequently calculates the relative risk for the presence of Glaucoma at the time of screening. Three categories of patient are described: Unlikely to have Glaucoma; Glaucoma Suspect and Glaucoma. A case review methodology of patients with known diagnosis is employed to validate the calculator risk assessment. RESULTS Data from the patient records of 400 patients with an established diagnosis has been captured and used to validate the screening tool. The website reports that the calculated diagnosis correlates with the actual diagnosis 82% of the time. Biostatistics analysis showed: Sensitivity = 88%; Positive predictive value = 97%; Specificity = 75%. CONCLUSION Analysis of the first 400 patients validates the web based screening tool as being a good method of screening for the at risk population. The validation is ongoing. The web based format will allow a more widespread recruitment for different geographic, population and personnel variables. PMID:23550097

A risk factor-based predictive model of outcomes in carotid endarterectomy: the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program 2005-2010.

PubMed

Bekelis, Kimon; Bakhoum, Samuel F; Desai, Atman; Mackenzie, Todd A; Goodney, Philip; Labropoulos, Nicos

2013-04-01

Accurate knowledge of individualized risks and benefits is crucial to the surgical management of patients undergoing carotid endarterectomy (CEA). Although large randomized trials have determined specific cutoffs for the degree of stenosis, precise delineation of patient-level risks remains a topic of debate, especially in real world practice. We attempted to create a risk factor-based predictive model of outcomes in CEA. We performed a retrospective cohort study involving patients who underwent CEAs from 2005 to 2010 and were registered in the American College of Surgeons National Quality Improvement Project database. Of the 35 698 patients, 20 015 were asymptomatic (56.1%) and 15 683 were symptomatic (43.9%). These patients demonstrated a 1.64% risk of stroke, 0.69% risk of myocardial infarction, and 0.75% risk of death within 30 days after CEA. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that increasing age, male sex, history of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, myocardial infarction, angina, congestive heart failure, peripheral vascular disease, previous stroke or transient ischemic attack, and dialysis were independent risk factors associated with an increased risk of the combined outcome of postoperative stroke, myocardial infarction, or death. A validated model for outcome prediction based on individual patient characteristics was developed. There was a steep effect of age on the risk of myocardial infarction and death. This national study confirms that that risks of CEA vary dramatically based on patient-level characteristics. Because of limited discrimination, it cannot be used for individual patient risk assessment. However, it can be used as a baseline for improvement and development of more accurate predictive models based on other databases or prospective studies.

Validity and reliability of the Turkish version of the Optimality Index-US (OI-US) to assess maternity care outcomes.

PubMed

Yucel, Cigdem; Taskin, Lale; Low, Lisa Kane

2015-12-01

Although obstetrical interventions are used commonly in Turkey, there is no standardized evidence-based assessment tool to evaluate maternity care outcomes. The Optimality Index-US (OI-US) is an evidence-based tool that was developed for the purpose of measuring aggregate perinatal care processes and outcomes against an optimal or best possible standard. This index has been validated and used in Netherlands, USA and UK until now. The objective of this study was to adapt the OI-US to assess maternity care outcomes in Turkey. Translation and back translation were used to develop the Optimality Index-Turkey (OI-TR) version. To evaluate the content validity of the OI-TR, an expert panel group (n=10) reviewed the items and evidence-based quality of the OI-TR for application in Turkey. Following the content validity process, the OI-TR was used to assess 150 healthy and 150 high-risk pregnant women who gave birth at a high volume, urban maternity hospital in Turkey. The scores between the two groups were compared to assess the discriminant validity of the OI-TR. The percentage of agreement between two raters and the Kappa statistic were calculated to evaluate the reliability. Content validity was established for the OI-TR by an expert group. Discriminant validity was confirmed by comparing the OI scores of healthy pregnant women (mean OI score=77.65%) and those of high-risk pregnant women (mean OI score=78.60%). The percentage of agreement between the two raters was 96.19, and inter-rater agreement was provided for each item in the OI-TR. OI-TR is a valid and reliable tool that can be used to assess maternity care outcomes in Turkey. The results of this study indicate that although the risk statuses of the women differed, the type of care they received was essentially the same, as measured by the OI-TR. Care was not individualised based on risk and for a majority of items was inconsistent with evidence based practice, which is not optimal. Use of the OI-TR will help to

Risk adjustment as basis for rational benchmarking: the example of colon carcinoma.

PubMed

Ptok, Henry; Marusch, Frank; Schmidt, Uwe; Gastinger, Ingo; Wenisch, Hubertus J C; Lippert, Hans

2011-01-01

The results of resection of colorectal carcinoma can vary greatly from one hospital to another. However, this does not necessarily reflect differences in the quality of treatment. The purpose of this study was to compare various tools for the risk-adjusted assessment of treatment results after resection of colorectal carcinoma within the context of hospital benchmarking. On the basis of a data pool provided by a multicentric observation study of patients with colon cancer, the postoperative in-hospital mortality rates at two high-volume hospitals ("A" and "B") were compared. After univariate comparison, risk-adjusted comparison of postoperative mortality was performed by logistic regression analysis (LReA), propensity-score analysis (PScA), and the CR-POSSUM score. Postoperative complications were compared by LReA and PScA. Although postoperative mortality differed significantly (P = 0.041) in univariate comparison of hospitals A and B (2.9% vs. 6.4%), no significant difference was found by LReA or PScA. Similarly, the observed mortality at these did not differ significantly from the mortality estimated by the CR-POSSUM score (hospital A, 2.9%/4.9%, P = 0.298; hospital B, 6.4%/6.5%, P = 1.000). Significant differences were seen in risk-adjusted comparison of most postoperative complications (by both LReA and PScA), but there were no differences in the rates of relaparotomy or anastomotic leakage that required surgery. For the hard outcome variable "postoperative mortality," none of the three risk adjustment procedures showed any difference between the hospitals. The CR-POSSUM score can be regarded as the most practicable tool for risk-adjusted comparison of the outcome of colon-carcinoma resection in clinical benchmarking.

Regression discontinuity was a valid design for dichotomous outcomes in three randomized trials.

PubMed

van Leeuwen, Nikki; Lingsma, Hester F; Mooijaart, Simon P; Nieboer, Daan; Trompet, Stella; Steyerberg, Ewout W

2018-06-01

Regression discontinuity (RD) is a quasi-experimental design that may provide valid estimates of treatment effects in case of continuous outcomes. We aimed to evaluate validity and precision in the RD design for dichotomous outcomes. We performed validation studies in three large randomized controlled trials (RCTs) (Corticosteroid Randomization After Significant Head injury [CRASH], the Global Utilization of Streptokinase and Tissue Plasminogen Activator for Occluded Coronary Arteries [GUSTO], and PROspective Study of Pravastatin in elderly individuals at risk of vascular disease [PROSPER]). To mimic the RD design, we selected patients above and below a cutoff (e.g., age 75 years) randomized to treatment and control, respectively. Adjusted logistic regression models using restricted cubic splines (RCS) and polynomials and local logistic regression models estimated the odds ratio (OR) for treatment, with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) to indicate precision. In CRASH, treatment increased mortality with OR 1.22 [95% CI 1.06-1.40] in the RCT. The RD estimates were 1.42 (0.94-2.16) and 1.13 (0.90-1.40) with RCS adjustment and local regression, respectively. In GUSTO, treatment reduced mortality (OR 0.83 [0.72-0.95]), with more extreme estimates in the RD analysis (OR 0.57 [0.35; 0.92] and 0.67 [0.51; 0.86]). In PROSPER, similar RCT and RD estimates were found, again with less precision in RD designs. We conclude that the RD design provides similar but substantially less precise treatment effect estimates compared with an RCT, with local regression being the preferred method of analysis. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Derivation and Validation of a Risk Standardization Model for Benchmarking Hospital Performance for Health-Related Quality of Life Outcomes after Acute Myocardial Infarction

PubMed Central

Arnold, Suzanne V.; Masoudi, Frederick A.; Rumsfeld, John S.; Li, Yan; Jones, Philip G.; Spertus, John A.

2014-01-01

Background Before outcomes-based measures of quality can be used to compare and improve care, they must be risk-standardized to account for variations in patient characteristics. Despite the importance of health-related quality of life (HRQL) outcomes among patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI), no risk-standardized models have been developed. Methods and Results We assessed disease-specific HRQL using the Seattle Angina Questionnaire at baseline and 1 year later in 2693 unselected AMI patients from 24 hospitals enrolled in the TRIUMPH registry. Using 57 candidate sociodemographic, economic, and clinical variables present on admission, we developed a parsimonious, hierarchical linear regression model to predict HRQL. Eleven variables were independently associated with poor HRQL after AMI, including younger age, prior CABG, depressive symptoms, and financial difficulties (R2=20%). The model demonstrated excellent internal calibration and reasonable calibration in an independent sample of 1890 AMI patients in a separate registry, although the model slightly over-predicted HRQL scores in the higher deciles. Among the 24 TRIUMPH hospitals, 1-year unadjusted HRQL scores ranged from 67–89. After risk-standardization, HRQL scores variability narrowed substantially (range=79–83), and the group of hospital performance (bottom 20%/middle 60%/top 20%) changed in 14 of the 24 hospitals (58% reclassification with risk-standardization). Conclusions In this predictive model for HRQL after AMI, we identified risk factors, including economic and psychological characteristics, associated with HRQL outcomes. Adjusting for these factors substantially altered the rankings of hospitals as compared with unadjusted comparisons. Using this model to compare risk-standardized HRQL outcomes across hospitals may identify processes of care that maximize this important patient-centered outcome. PMID:24163068

Development and Validation of an Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality Indicator for Mortality After Congenital Heart Surgery Harmonized With Risk Adjustment for Congenital Heart Surgery (RACHS-1) Methodology.

PubMed

Jenkins, Kathy J; Koch Kupiec, Jennifer; Owens, Pamela L; Romano, Patrick S; Geppert, Jeffrey J; Gauvreau, Kimberlee

2016-05-20

The National Quality Forum previously approved a quality indicator for mortality after congenital heart surgery developed by the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ). Several parameters of the validated Risk Adjustment for Congenital Heart Surgery (RACHS-1) method were included, but others differed. As part of the National Quality Forum endorsement maintenance process, developers were asked to harmonize the 2 methodologies. Parameters that were identical between the 2 methods were retained. AHRQ's Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project State Inpatient Databases (SID) 2008 were used to select optimal parameters where differences existed, with a goal to maximize model performance and face validity. Inclusion criteria were not changed and included all discharges for patients <18 years with International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification procedure codes for congenital heart surgery or nonspecific heart surgery combined with congenital heart disease diagnosis codes. The final model includes procedure risk group, age (0-28 days, 29-90 days, 91-364 days, 1-17 years), low birth weight (500-2499 g), other congenital anomalies (Clinical Classifications Software 217, except for 758.xx), multiple procedures, and transfer-in status. Among 17 945 eligible cases in the SID 2008, the c statistic for model performance was 0.82. In the SID 2013 validation data set, the c statistic was 0.82. Risk-adjusted mortality rates by center ranged from 0.9% to 4.1% (5th-95th percentile). Congenital heart surgery programs can now obtain national benchmarking reports by applying AHRQ Quality Indicator software to hospital administrative data, based on the harmonized RACHS-1 method, with high discrimination and face validity. © 2016 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.

External validation of urinary PCA3-based nomograms to individually predict prostate biopsy outcome.

PubMed

Auprich, Marco; Haese, Alexander; Walz, Jochen; Pummer, Karl; de la Taille, Alexandre; Graefen, Markus; de Reijke, Theo; Fisch, Margit; Kil, Paul; Gontero, Paolo; Irani, Jacques; Chun, Felix K-H

2010-11-01

Prior to safely adopting risk stratification tools, their performance must be tested in an external patient cohort. To assess accuracy and generalizability of previously reported, internally validated, prebiopsy prostate cancer antigen 3 (PCA3) gene-based nomograms when applied to a large, external, European cohort of men at risk of prostate cancer (PCa). Biopsy data, including urinary PCA3 score, were available for 621 men at risk of PCa who were participating in a European multi-institutional study. All patients underwent a ≥10-core prostate biopsy. Biopsy indication was based on suspicious digital rectal examination, persistently elevated prostate-specific antigen level (2.5-10 ng/ml) and/or suspicious histology (atypical small acinar proliferation of the prostate, >/= two cores affected by high-grade prostatic intraepithelial neoplasia in first set of biopsies). PCA3 scores were assessed using the Progensa assay (Gen-Probe Inc, San Diego, CA, USA). According to the previously reported nomograms, different PCA3 score codings were used. The probability of a positive biopsy was calculated using previously published logistic regression coefficients. Predicted outcomes were compared to the actual biopsy results. Accuracy was calculated using the area under the curve as a measure of discrimination; calibration was explored graphically. Biopsy-confirmed PCa was detected in 255 (41.1%) men. Median PCA3 score of biopsy-negative versus biopsy-positive men was 20 versus 48 in the total cohort, 17 versus 47 at initial biopsy, and 37 versus 53 at repeat biopsy (all p≤0.002). External validation of all four previously reported PCA3-based nomograms demonstrated equally high accuracy (0.73-0.75) and excellent calibration. The main limitations of the study reside in its early detection setting, referral scenario, and participation of only tertiary-care centers. In accordance with the original publication, previously developed PCA3-based nomograms achieved high accuracy and

Do insurers respond to risk adjustment? A long-term, nationwide analysis from Switzerland.

PubMed

von Wyl, Viktor; Beck, Konstantin

2016-03-01

Community rating in social health insurance calls for risk adjustment in order to eliminate incentives for risk selection. Swiss risk adjustment is known to be insufficient, and substantial risk selection incentives remain. This study develops five indicators to monitor residual risk selection. Three indicators target activities of conglomerates of insurers (with the same ownership), which steer enrollees into specific carriers based on applicants' risk profiles. As a proxy for their market power, those indicators estimate the amount of premium-, health care cost-, and risk-adjustment transfer variability that is attributable to conglomerates. Two additional indicators, derived from linear regression, describe the amount of residual cost differences between insurers that are not covered by risk adjustment. All indicators measuring conglomerate-based risk selection activities showed increases between 1996 and 2009, paralleling the establishment of new conglomerates. At their maxima in 2009, the indicator values imply that 56% of the net risk adjustment volume, 34% of premium variability, and 51% cost variability in the market were attributable to conglomerates. From 2010 onwards, all indicators decreased, coinciding with a pre-announced risk adjustment reform implemented in 2012. Likewise, the regression-based indicators suggest that the volume and variance of residual cost differences between insurers that are not equaled out by risk adjustment have decreased markedly since 2009 as a result of the latest reform. Our analysis demonstrates that risk-selection, especially by conglomerates, is a real phenomenon in Switzerland. However, insurers seem to have reduced risk selection activities to optimize their losses and gains from the latest risk adjustment reform.

A novel early risk assessment tool for detecting clinical outcomes in patients with heat-related illness (J-ERATO score): Development and validation in independent cohorts in Japan.

PubMed

Hayashida, Kei; Kondo, Yutaka; Hifumi, Toru; Shimazaki, Junya; Oda, Yasutaka; Shiraishi, Shinichiro; Fukuda, Tatsuma; Sasaki, Junichi; Shimizu, Keiki

2018-01-01

We sought to develop a novel risk assessment tool to predict the clinical outcomes after heat-related illness. Prospective, multicenter observational study. Patients who transferred to emergency hospitals in Japan with heat-related illness were registered. The sample was divided into two parts: 60% to construct the score and 40% to validate it. A binary logistic regression model was used to predict hospital admission as a primary outcome. The resulting model was transformed into a scoring system. A total of 3,001 eligible patients were analyzed. There was no difference in variables between development and validation cohorts. Based on the result of a logistic regression model in the development phase (n = 1,805), the J-ERATO score was defined as the sum of the six binary components in the prehospital setting (respiratory rate≥22 /min, Glasgow coma scale<15, systolic blood pressure≤100 mmHg, heart rate≥100 bpm, body temperature≥38°C, and age≥65 y), for a total score ranging from 0 to 6. In the validation phase (n = 1,196), the score had excellent discrimination (C-statistic 0.84; 95% CI 0.79-0.89, p<0.0001) and calibration (P>0.2 by Hosmer-Lemeshow test). The observed proportion of hospital admission increased with increasing J-ERATO score (score = 0, 5.0%; score = 1, 15.0%; score = 2, 24.6%; score = 3, 38.6%; score = 4, 68.0%; score = 5, 85.2%; score = 6, 96.4%). Multivariate analyses showed that the J-ERATO score was an independent positive predictor of hospital admission (adjusted OR, 2.43; 95% CI, 2.06-2.87; P<0.001), intensive care unit (ICU) admission (3.73; 2.95-4.72; P<0.001) and in-hospital mortality (1.65; 1.18-2.32; P = 0.004). The J-ERATO score is simply assessed and can facilitate the identification of patients with higher risk of heat-related hospitalization. This scoring system is also significantly associated with the higher likelihood of ICU admission and in-hospital mortality after heat-related hospitalization.

Risk adjustment alternatives in paying for behavioral health care under Medicaid.

PubMed Central

Ettner, S L; Frank, R G; McGuire, T G; Hermann, R C

2001-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To compare the performance of various risk adjustment models in behavioral health applications such as setting mental health and substance abuse (MH/SA) capitation payments or overall capitation payments for populations including MH/SA users. DATA SOURCES/STUDY DESIGN: The 1991-93 administrative data from the Michigan Medicaid program were used. We compared mean absolute prediction error for several risk adjustment models and simulated the profits and losses that behavioral health care carve outs and integrated health plans would experience under risk adjustment if they enrolled beneficiaries with a history of MH/SA problems. Models included basic demographic adjustment, Adjusted Diagnostic Groups, Hierarchical Condition Categories, and specifications designed for behavioral health. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Differences in predictive ability among risk adjustment models were small and generally insignificant. Specifications based on relatively few MH/SA diagnostic categories did as well as or better than models controlling for additional variables such as medical diagnoses at predicting MH/SA expenditures among adults. Simulation analyses revealed that among both adults and minors considerable scope remained for behavioral health care carve outs to make profits or losses after risk adjustment based on differential enrollment of severely ill patients. Similarly, integrated health plans have strong financial incentives to avoid MH/SA users even after adjustment. CONCLUSIONS: Current risk adjustment methodologies do not eliminate the financial incentives for integrated health plans and behavioral health care carve-out plans to avoid high-utilizing patients with psychiatric disorders. PMID:11508640

Scalability of a Methodology for Generating Technical Trading Rules with GAPs Based on Risk-Return Adjustment and Incremental Training

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de La Cal, E. A.; Fernández, E. M.; Quiroga, R.; Villar, J. R.; Sedano, J.

In previous works a methodology was defined, based on the design of a genetic algorithm GAP and an incremental training technique adapted to the learning of series of stock market values. The GAP technique consists in a fusion of GP and GA. The GAP algorithm implements the automatic search for crisp trading rules taking as objectives of the training both the optimization of the return obtained and the minimization of the assumed risk. Applying the proposed methodology, rules have been obtained for a period of eight years of the S&P500 index. The achieved adjustment of the relation return-risk has generated rules with returns very superior in the testing period to those obtained applying habitual methodologies and even clearly superior to Buy&Hold. This work probes that the proposed methodology is valid for different assets in a different market than previous work.

Validation of chronic kidney disease risk categorization system in Chinese patients with kidney disease: A cohort study.

PubMed

Liu, Qingyan; Lv, Jicheng; Li, Haixia; Jiao, Lili; Yang, Hongyun; Song, Yinan; Xu, Guobin

2015-12-01

To validate the Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) guidelines risk stratification system based on the combination of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and proteinuria. This was a cohort study. A total of 1219 study population were recruited. Estimated GFR and proteinuria measured by using 24 h urine protein excretion rate (PER) were predictors. Adverse outcomes included all-cause mortality (ACM) and end-stage renal disease (ESRD). Follow-up was done by regular visit, telephone interview and electronic medical records. Over a median follow-up of 4.6 years, 153 (12.6%) and 43 (3.5%) patients experienced ESRD and ACM, respectively. On multivariable analysis, the adjusted hazard ratio for ESRD and ACM (compared with patients with eGFR > 60 mL/min per 1.7  m²) was of 29.8 and 3.6 for those with eGFR of 15-29 mL/min per 1.73 m², respectively. The adjusted hazard ratio for ESRD and ACM (compared with patients with PER < 150 mg/24h) was of 15.9 and 3.9 for those with PER > 500 mg/24h. Higher KDIGO guidelines risk categories (indicating lower eGFR or higher proteinuria) were associated with a graded increase in the risk for the ESRD (P < 0.001) and ACM (P < 0.001). Reclassification of KDIGO guidelines risk categories yielded net reclassification improvements for those with ESRD or ACM event (NRIevents ) of 33.3% or 30.2%. Lower eGFR and higher proteinuria are risk factors for ESRD and ACM in Chinese patients. The KDIGO guidelines risk categorization system assigned patients who went on to have the event to more appropriate CKD risk categories. © 2015 Asian Pacific Society of Nephrology.

Internet-Based Self-Help Intervention for ICD-11 Adjustment Disorder: Preliminary Findings.

PubMed

Eimontas, Jonas; Rimsaite, Zivile; Gegieckaite, Goda; Zelviene, Paulina; Kazlauskas, Evaldas

2018-06-01

Adjustment disorder is one of the most diagnosed mental disorders. However, there is a lack of studies of specialized internet-based psychosocial interventions for adjustment disorder. We aimed to analyze the outcomes of an internet-based unguided self-help psychosocial intervention BADI for adjustment disorder in a two armed randomized controlled trial with a waiting list control group. In total 284 adult participants were randomized in this study. We measured adjustment disorder as a primary outcome, and psychological well-being as a secondary outcome at pre-intervention (T1) and one month after the intervention (T2). We found medium effect size of the intervention for the completer sample on adjustment disorder symptoms. Intervention was effective for those participants who used it at least one time in 30-day period. Our results revealed the potential of unguided internet-based self-help intervention for adjustment disorder. However, high dropout rates in the study limits the generalization of the outcomes of the intervention only to completers.

Donabedian's structure-process-outcome quality of care model: Validation in an integrated trauma system.

PubMed

Moore, Lynne; Lavoie, André; Bourgeois, Gilles; Lapointe, Jean

2015-06-01

According to Donabedian's health care quality model, improvements in the structure of care should lead to improvements in clinical processes that should in turn improve patient outcome. This model has been widely adopted by the trauma community but has not yet been validated in a trauma system. The objective of this study was to assess the performance of an integrated trauma system in terms of structure, process, and outcome and evaluate the correlation between quality domains. Quality of care was evaluated for patients treated in a Canadian provincial trauma system (2005-2010; 57 centers, n = 63,971) using quality indicators (QIs) developed and validated previously. Structural performance was measured by transposing on-site accreditation visit reports onto an evaluation grid according to American College of Surgeons criteria. The composite process QI was calculated as the average sum of proportions of conformity to 15 process QIs derived from literature review and expert opinion. Outcome performance was measured using risk-adjusted rates of mortality, complications, and readmission as well as hospital length of stay (LOS). Correlation was assessed with Pearson's correlation coefficients. Statistically significant correlations were observed between structure and process QIs (r = 0.33), and process and outcome QIs (r = -0.33 for readmission, r = -0.27 for LOS). Significant positive correlations were also observed between outcome QIs (r = 0.37 for mortality-readmission; r = 0.39 for mortality-LOS and readmission-LOS; r = 0.45 for mortality-complications; r = 0.34 for readmission-complications; 0.63 for complications-LOS). Significant correlations between quality domains observed in this study suggest that Donabedian's structure-process-outcome model is a valid model for evaluating trauma care. Trauma centers that perform well in terms of structure also tend to perform well in terms of clinical processes, which in turn has a favorable influence on patient outcomes

A clinical economics workstation for risk-adjusted health care cost management.

PubMed Central

Eisenstein, E. L.; Hales, J. W.

1995-01-01

This paper describes a healthcare cost accounting system which is under development at Duke University Medical Center. Our approach differs from current practice in that this system will dynamically adjust its resource usage estimates to compensate for variations in patient risk levels. This adjustment is made possible by introducing a new cost accounting concept, Risk-Adjusted Quantity (RQ). RQ divides case-level resource usage variances into their risk-based component (resource consumption differences attributable to differences in patient risk levels) and their non-risk-based component (resource consumption differences which cannot be attributed to differences in patient risk levels). Because patient risk level is a factor in estimating resource usage, this system is able to simultaneously address the financial and quality dimensions of case cost management. In effect, cost-effectiveness analysis is incorporated into health care cost management. PMID:8563361

Tamoxifen for breast cancer risk reduction: impact of alternative approaches to quality-of-life adjustment on cost-effectiveness analysis.

PubMed

Melnikow, Joy; Birch, Stephen; Slee, Christina; McCarthy, Theodore J; Helms, L Jay; Kuppermann, Miriam

2008-09-01

In cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA), the effects of health-care interventions on multiple health dimensions typically require consideration of both quantity and quality of life. To explore the impact of alternative approaches to quality-of-life adjustment using patient preferences (utilities) on the outcome of a CEA on use of tamoxifen for breast cancer risk reduction. A state transition Markov model tracked hypothetical cohorts of women who did or did not take 5 years of tamoxifen for breast cancer risk reduction. Incremental quality-adjusted effectiveness and cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for models including and excluding a utility adjustment for menopausal symptoms were compared with each other and to a global utility model. Two hundred fifty-five women aged 50 and over with estimated 5-year breast cancer risk >or=1.67% participated in utility assessment interviews. Standard gamble utilities were assessed for specified tamoxifen-related health outcomes, current health, and for a global assessment of possible outcomes of tamoxifen use. Inclusion of a utility for menopausal symptoms in the outcome-specific models substantially increased the ICER; at the threshold 5-year breast cancer risk of 1.67%, tamoxifen was dominated. When a global utility for tamoxifen was used in place of outcome-specific utilities, tamoxifen was dominated under all circumstances. CEAs may be profoundly affected by the types of outcomes considered for quality-of-life adjustment and how these outcomes are grouped for utility assessment. Comparisons of ICERs across analyses must consider effects of different approaches to using utilities for quality-of-life adjustment.

When methods meet politics: how risk adjustment became part of Medicare managed care.

PubMed

Weissman, Joel S; Wachterman, Melissa; Blumenthal, David

2005-06-01

Health-based risk adjustment has long been touted as key to the success of competitive models of health care. Because it decreases the incentive to enroll only healthy patients in insurance plans, risk adjustment was incorporated into Medicare policy via the Balanced Budget Act of 1997. However, full implementation of risk adjustment was delayed due to clashes with the managed care industry over payment policy, concerns over perverse incentives, and problems of data burden. We review the history of risk adjustment leading up to the Balanced Budget Act and examine the controversies surrounding attempts to stop or delay its implementation during the years that followed. The article provides lessons for the future of health-based risk adjustment and possible alternatives.

Development and validation of Prediction models for Risks of complications in Early-onset Pre-eclampsia (PREP): a prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Thangaratinam, Shakila; Allotey, John; Marlin, Nadine; Mol, Ben W; Von Dadelszen, Peter; Ganzevoort, Wessel; Akkermans, Joost; Ahmed, Asif; Daniels, Jane; Deeks, Jon; Ismail, Khaled; Barnard, Ann Marie; Dodds, Julie; Kerry, Sally; Moons, Carl; Riley, Richard D; Khan, Khalid S

2017-04-01

The prognosis of early-onset pre-eclampsia (before 34 weeks' gestation) is variable. Accurate prediction of complications is required to plan appropriate management in high-risk women. To develop and validate prediction models for outcomes in early-onset pre-eclampsia. Prospective cohort for model development, with validation in two external data sets. Model development: 53 obstetric units in the UK. Model transportability: PIERS (Pre-eclampsia Integrated Estimate of RiSk for mothers) and PETRA (Pre-Eclampsia TRial Amsterdam) studies. Pregnant women with early-onset pre-eclampsia. Nine hundred and forty-six women in the model development data set and 850 women (634 in PIERS, 216 in PETRA) in the transportability (external validation) data sets. The predictors were identified from systematic reviews of tests to predict complications in pre-eclampsia and were prioritised by Delphi survey. The primary outcome was the composite of adverse maternal outcomes established using Delphi surveys. The secondary outcome was the composite of fetal and neonatal complications. We developed two prediction models: a logistic regression model (PREP-L) to assess the overall risk of any maternal outcome until postnatal discharge and a survival analysis model (PREP-S) to obtain individual risk estimates at daily intervals from diagnosis until 34 weeks. Shrinkage was used to adjust for overoptimism of predictor effects. For internal validation (of the full models in the development data) and external validation (of the reduced models in the transportability data), we computed the ability of the models to discriminate between those with and without poor outcomes ( c -statistic), and the agreement between predicted and observed risk (calibration slope). The PREP-L model included maternal age, gestational age at diagnosis, medical history, systolic blood pressure, urine protein-to-creatinine ratio, platelet count, serum urea concentration, oxygen saturation, baseline treatment with

Development and External Validation of a Melanoma Risk Prediction Model Based on Self-assessed Risk Factors.

PubMed

Vuong, Kylie; Armstrong, Bruce K; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Lund, Eiliv; Adami, Hans-Olov; Veierod, Marit B; Barrett, Jennifer H; Davies, John R; Bishop, D Timothy; Whiteman, David C; Olsen, Catherine M; Hopper, John L; Mann, Graham J; Cust, Anne E; McGeechan, Kevin

2016-08-01

Identifying individuals at high risk of melanoma can optimize primary and secondary prevention strategies. To develop and externally validate a risk prediction model for incident first-primary cutaneous melanoma using self-assessed risk factors. We used unconditional logistic regression to develop a multivariable risk prediction model. Relative risk estimates from the model were combined with Australian melanoma incidence and competing mortality rates to obtain absolute risk estimates. A risk prediction model was developed using the Australian Melanoma Family Study (629 cases and 535 controls) and externally validated using 4 independent population-based studies: the Western Australia Melanoma Study (511 case-control pairs), Leeds Melanoma Case-Control Study (960 cases and 513 controls), Epigene-QSkin Study (44 544, of which 766 with melanoma), and Swedish Women's Lifestyle and Health Cohort Study (49 259 women, of which 273 had melanoma). We validated model performance internally and externally by assessing discrimination using the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC). Additionally, using the Swedish Women's Lifestyle and Health Cohort Study, we assessed model calibration and clinical usefulness. The risk prediction model included hair color, nevus density, first-degree family history of melanoma, previous nonmelanoma skin cancer, and lifetime sunbed use. On internal validation, the AUC was 0.70 (95% CI, 0.67-0.73). On external validation, the AUC was 0.66 (95% CI, 0.63-0.69) in the Western Australia Melanoma Study, 0.67 (95% CI, 0.65-0.70) in the Leeds Melanoma Case-Control Study, 0.64 (95% CI, 0.62-0.66) in the Epigene-QSkin Study, and 0.63 (95% CI, 0.60-0.67) in the Swedish Women's Lifestyle and Health Cohort Study. Model calibration showed close agreement between predicted and observed numbers of incident melanomas across all deciles of predicted risk. In the external validation setting, there was higher net benefit when using the risk prediction

Systematic review: height-adjustable workstations to reduce sedentary behaviour in office-based workers.

PubMed

Tew, G A; Posso, M C; Arundel, C E; McDaid, C M

2015-07-01

Time spent sitting in the workplace is an important contributor to overall sedentary risk. Installation of height-adjustable workstations has been proposed as a feasible approach for reducing occupational sitting time in office workers. To provide an accurate overview of the controlled trials that have evaluated the effects of height-adjustable workstation interventions on workplace sitting time in office-based workers. A comprehensive search was conducted up until March 2014 in the following databases: Medline, PsychINFO, CENTRAL, EMBASE and PEDro. To identify unpublished studies and grey literature, the reference lists of relevant official or scientific web pages were also checked. Studies assessing the effectiveness of height-adjustable workstations using a randomized or non-randomized controlled design were included. The initial search yielded a total of 8497 citations. After a thorough selection process, five studies were included with 172 participants. A formal quality assessment indicated that risk of bias was high in all studies and heterogeneity in interventions and outcomes prevented meta-analysis. Nevertheless, all studies reported that height-adjustable workstation interventions reduced occupational sitting time in office workers. There was insufficient evidence to determine effects on other relevant health outcomes (e.g. body composition, musculoskeletal symptoms, mental health). There is insufficient evidence to make firm conclusions regarding the effects of installing height-adjustable workstations on sedentary behaviour and associated health outcomes in office workers. Larger and longer term controlled studies are needed, which include more representative populations. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Occupational Medicine. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Risk-adjusted cesarean section rates for the assessment of physician performance in Taiwan: a population-based study.

PubMed

Tang, Chao-Hsiun; Wang, Han-I; Hsu, Chun-Sen; Su, Hung-Wen; Chen, Mei-Ju; Lin, Herng-Ching

2006-10-09

Over the past decade, about one-third of all births nationwide in Taiwan were delivered by cesarean section (CS). Previous studies in the US and Europe have documented the need for risk adjustment for fairer comparisons among providers. In this study, we set out to determine the impact that adjustment for patient-specific risk factors has on CS among different physicians in Taiwan. There were 172,511 live births which occurred in either hospitals or obstetrics/gynecology clinics between 1 January and 31 December 2003, and for whom birth certificate data could be linked with National Health Insurance (NHI) claims data, available as the sample for this study. Physicians were divided into four equivalent groups based upon the quartile distribution of their crude (actual) CS rates. Stepwise logistic regressions were conducted to develop a predictive model and to determine the expected (risk-adjusted) CS rate and 95% confidence interval (CI) for each physician. The actual rates were then compared with the expected CS rates to see the proportion of physicians whose actual rates were below, within, or above the predicted CI in each quartile. The proportion of physicians whose CS rates were above the predicted CI increased as the quartile moved to the higher level. However, more than half of the physicians whose actual rates were higher than the predicted CI were not in the highest quartile. Conversely, there were some physicians (40 of 258 physicians) in the highest quartile who were actually providing obstetric care that was appropriate to the risk. When a stricter standard was applied to the assessment of physician performance by excluding physicians in quartile 4 for predicting CS rates, as many as 60% of physicians were found to have higher CS rates than the predicted CI, and indeed, the CS rates of no physicians in either quartile 3 or quartile 4 were below the predicted CI. Overall, our study found that the comparison of unadjusted CS rates might not provide a valid

Sleep disturbances as an evidence-based suicide risk factor.

PubMed

Bernert, Rebecca A; Kim, Joanne S; Iwata, Naomi G; Perlis, Michael L

2015-03-01

Increasing research indicates that sleep disturbances may confer increased risk for suicidal behaviors, including suicidal ideation, suicide attempts, and death by suicide. Despite increased investigation, a number of methodological problems present important limitations to the validity and generalizability of findings in this area, which warrant additional focus. To evaluate and delineate sleep disturbances as an evidence-based suicide risk factor, a systematic review of the extant literature was conducted with methodological considerations as a central focus. The following methodologic criteria were required for inclusion: the report (1) evaluated an index of sleep disturbance; (2) examined an outcome measure for suicidal behavior; (3) adjusted for presence of a depression diagnosis or depression severity, as a covariate; and (4) represented an original investigation as opposed to a chart review. Reports meeting inclusion criteria were further classified and reviewed according to: study design and timeframe; sample type and size; sleep disturbance, suicide risk, and depression covariate assessment measure(s); and presence of positive versus negative findings. Based on keyword search, the following search engines were used: PubMed and PsycINFO. Search criteria generated N = 82 articles representing original investigations focused on sleep disturbances and suicide outcomes. Of these, N = 18 met inclusion criteria for review based on systematic analysis. Of the reports identified, N = 18 evaluated insomnia or poor sleep quality symptoms, whereas N = 8 assessed nightmares in association with suicide risk. Despite considerable differences in study designs, samples, and assessment techniques, the comparison of such reports indicates preliminary, converging evidence for sleep disturbances as an empirical risk factor for suicidal behaviors, while highlighting important, future directions for increased investigation.

Risk adjustment for case mix and the effect of surgeon volume on morbidity.

PubMed

Maas, Matthew B; Jaff, Michael R; Rordorf, Guy A

2013-06-01

complications. Variables selected for risk adjustment in studies using administrative databases appear to be inadequate to control for case mix bias between low-volume and high-volume surgeons. Risk adjustment should empirically analyze for case mix imbalances between surgeons to identify meaningful risk modifiers in clinical practice such as the American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status classification. A true relationship between surgeon volume and outcomes remains uncertain, and caution is advised in developing policies based on these findings.

Relevance of the c-statistic when evaluating risk-adjustment models in surgery.

PubMed

Merkow, Ryan P; Hall, Bruce L; Cohen, Mark E; Dimick, Justin B; Wang, Edward; Chow, Warren B; Ko, Clifford Y; Bilimoria, Karl Y

2012-05-01

The measurement of hospital quality based on outcomes requires risk adjustment. The c-statistic is a popular tool used to judge model performance, but can be limited, particularly when evaluating specific operations in focused populations. Our objectives were to examine the interpretation and relevance of the c-statistic when used in models with increasingly similar case mix and to consider an alternative perspective on model calibration based on a graphical depiction of model fit. From the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (2008-2009), patients were identified who underwent a general surgery procedure, and procedure groups were increasingly restricted: colorectal-all, colorectal-elective cases only, and colorectal-elective cancer cases only. Mortality and serious morbidity outcomes were evaluated using logistic regression-based risk adjustment, and model c-statistics and calibration curves were used to compare model performance. During the study period, 323,427 general, 47,605 colorectal-all, 39,860 colorectal-elective, and 21,680 colorectal cancer patients were studied. Mortality ranged from 1.0% in general surgery to 4.1% in the colorectal-all group, and serious morbidity ranged from 3.9% in general surgery to 12.4% in the colorectal-all procedural group. As case mix was restricted, c-statistics progressively declined from the general to the colorectal cancer surgery cohorts for both mortality and serious morbidity (mortality: 0.949 to 0.866; serious morbidity: 0.861 to 0.668). Calibration was evaluated graphically by examining predicted vs observed number of events over risk deciles. For both mortality and serious morbidity, there was no qualitative difference in calibration identified between the procedure groups. In the present study, we demonstrate how the c-statistic can become less informative and, in certain circumstances, can lead to incorrect model-based conclusions, as case mix is restricted and patients become

HMO penetration, competition, and risk-adjusted hospital mortality.

PubMed

Mukamel, D B; Zwanziger, J; Tomaszewski, K J

2001-12-01

HMOs have been shown to have an effect on the care provided directly to their enrollees. They may also influence the care provided to individuals in fee-for-service plans through a spill-over effect. The objective of this study was to investigate the associations among HMO market penetration, HMO and hospital competition, and the quality of care received by Medicare fee-for-service patients measured by risk-adjusted hospital mortality rates. The 1990 data for 1,927 hospitals in 134 metropolitan statistical areas (with five or more hospitals) included Medicare fee-for-service risk-adjusted mortality rates from the Medicare Hospital Information Reports, hospital characteristics from the American Hospital Association annual survey, and HMO market penetration and competition calculated from InterStudy and Group Health Association of America data. Statistical regression techniques were used to identify the associations between HMO market penetration, competition, and risk-adjusted mortality, controlling for other hospital characteristics and region. Higher HMO market penetration and to a lesser degree increased HMO competition were associated with better mortality outcomes for fee-for-service Medicare enrollees. Competition between hospitals did not exhibit a significant association. HMOs may have a spill-over effect on quality of care received by individuals enrolled in fee-for-service plans. These findings may be explained by a positive effect on local practice styles or a preferential selection by HMOs for areas with better hospital care.

HMO penetration, competition, and risk-adjusted hospital mortality.

PubMed Central

Mukamel, D B; Zwanziger, J; Tomaszewski, K J

2001-01-01

OBJECTIVE: HMOs have been shown to have an effect on the care provided directly to their enrollees. They may also influence the care provided to individuals in fee-for-service plans through a spill-over effect. The objective of this study was to investigate the associations among HMO market penetration, HMO and hospital competition, and the quality of care received by Medicare fee-for-service patients measured by risk-adjusted hospital mortality rates. DATA SOURCES: The 1990 data for 1,927 hospitals in 134 metropolitan statistical areas (with five or more hospitals) included Medicare fee-for-service risk-adjusted mortality rates from the Medicare Hospital Information Reports, hospital characteristics from the American Hospital Association annual survey, and HMO market penetration and competition calculated from InterStudy and Group Health Association of America data. STUDY DESIGN: Statistical regression techniques were used to identify the associations between HMO market penetration, competition, and risk-adjusted mortality, controlling for other hospital characteristics and region. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Higher HMO market penetration and to a lesser degree increased HMO competition were associated with better mortality outcomes for fee-for-service Medicare enrollees. Competition between hospitals did not exhibit a significant association. CONCLUSIONS: HMOs may have a spill-over effect on quality of care received by individuals enrolled in fee-for-service plans. These findings may be explained by a positive effect on local practice styles or a preferential selection by HMOs for areas with better hospital care. PMID:11775665

Burden of typhoid fever in low-income and middle-income countries: a systematic, literature-based update with risk-factor adjustment.

PubMed

Mogasale, Vittal; Maskery, Brian; Ochiai, R Leon; Lee, Jung Seok; Mogasale, Vijayalaxmi V; Ramani, Enusa; Kim, Young Eun; Park, Jin Kyung; Wierzba, Thomas F

2014-10-01

No access to safe water is an important risk factor for typhoid fever, yet risk-level heterogeneity is unaccounted for in previous global burden estimates. Since WHO has recommended risk-based use of typhoid polysaccharide vaccine, we revisited the burden of typhoid fever in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) after adjusting for water-related risk. We estimated the typhoid disease burden from studies done in LMICs based on blood-culture-confirmed incidence rates applied to the 2010 population, after correcting for operational issues related to surveillance, limitations of diagnostic tests, and water-related risk. We derived incidence estimates, correction factors, and mortality estimates from systematic literature reviews. We did scenario analyses for risk factors, diagnostic sensitivity, and case fatality rates, accounting for the uncertainty in these estimates and we compared them with previous disease burden estimates. The estimated number of typhoid fever cases in LMICs in 2010 after adjusting for water-related risk was 11·9 million (95% CI 9·9-14·7) cases with 129 000 (75 000-208 000) deaths. By comparison, the estimated risk-unadjusted burden was 20·6 million (17·5-24·2) cases and 223 000 (131 000-344 000) deaths. Scenario analyses indicated that the risk-factor adjustment and updated diagnostic test correction factor derived from systematic literature reviews were the drivers of differences between the current estimate and past estimates. The risk-adjusted typhoid fever burden estimate was more conservative than previous estimates. However, by distinguishing the risk differences, it will allow assessment of the effect at the population level and will facilitate cost-effectiveness calculations for risk-based vaccination strategies for future typhoid conjugate vaccine. Copyright © 2014 Mogasale et al. Open Access article distributed under the terms of CC BY-NC-SA. Published by .. All rights reserved.

Early Developmental and Psychosocial Risks and Longitudinal Behavioral Adjustment Outcomes for Preschool-Age Girls Adopted from China

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tan, Tony Xing; Marfo, Kofi; Dedrick, Robert F.

2010-01-01

The central goal of this longitudinal study was to examine behavioral adjustment outcomes in a sample of preschool-age adopted Chinese girls. Research examining the effects of institutional deprivation on post-adoption behavioral outcomes for internationally adopted children has been constrained by the frequent unavailability of data on the…

Adjusted Hospital Outcomes of Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Surgery Reported in the Dutch Surgical Aneurysm Audit.

PubMed

Lijftogt, N; Vahl, A C; Wilschut, E D; Elsman, B H P; Amodio, S; van Zwet, E W; Leijdekkers, V J; Wouters, M W J M; Hamming, J F

2017-04-01

The Dutch Surgical Aneurysm Audit (DSAA) is mandatory for all patients with primary abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs) in the Netherlands. The aims are to present the observed outcomes of AAA surgery against the predicted outcomes by means of V-POSSUM (Vascular-Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and Morbidity). Adjusted mortality was calculated by the original and re-estimated V(physiology)-POSSUM for hospital comparisons. All patients operated on from January 2013 to December 2014 were included for analysis. Calibration and discrimination of V-POSSUM and V(p)-POSSUM was analysed. Mortality was benchmarked by means of the original V(p)-POSSUM formula and risk-adjusted by the re-estimated V(p)-POSSUM on the DSAA. In total, 5898 patients were included for analysis: 4579 with elective AAA (EAAA) and 1319 with acute abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAAA), acute symptomatic (SAAA; n = 371) or ruptured (RAAA; n = 948). The percentage of endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) varied between hospitals but showed no relation to hospital volume (EAAA: p = .12; AAAA: p = .07). EAAA, SAAA, and RAAA mortality was, respectively, 1.9%, 7.5%, and 28.7%. Elective mortality was 0.9% after EVAR and 5.0% after open surgical repair versus 15.6% and 27.4%, respectively, after AAAA. V-POSSUM overestimated mortality in most EAAA risk groups (p < .01). The discriminative ability of V-POSSUM in EAAA was moderate (C-statistic: .719) and poor for V(p)-POSSUM (C-statistic: .665). V-POSSUM in AAAA repair overestimated in high risk groups, and underestimated in low risk groups (p < .01). The discriminative ability in AAAA of V-POSSUM was moderate (.713) and of V(p)-POSSUM poor (.688). Risk adjustment by the re-estimated V(p)-POSSUM did not have any effect on hospital variation in EAAA but did in AAAA. Mortality in the DSAA was in line with the literature but is not discriminative for hospital comparisons in EAAA. Adjusting for V(p)-POSSUM, revealed no

Dynamic probability control limits for risk-adjusted Bernoulli CUSUM charts.

PubMed

Zhang, Xiang; Woodall, William H

2015-11-10

The risk-adjusted Bernoulli cumulative sum (CUSUM) chart developed by Steiner et al. (2000) is an increasingly popular tool for monitoring clinical and surgical performance. In practice, however, the use of a fixed control limit for the chart leads to a quite variable in-control average run length performance for patient populations with different risk score distributions. To overcome this problem, we determine simulation-based dynamic probability control limits (DPCLs) patient-by-patient for the risk-adjusted Bernoulli CUSUM charts. By maintaining the probability of a false alarm at a constant level conditional on no false alarm for previous observations, our risk-adjusted CUSUM charts with DPCLs have consistent in-control performance at the desired level with approximately geometrically distributed run lengths. Our simulation results demonstrate that our method does not rely on any information or assumptions about the patients' risk distributions. The use of DPCLs for risk-adjusted Bernoulli CUSUM charts allows each chart to be designed for the corresponding particular sequence of patients for a surgeon or hospital. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Measuring cancer-specific child adjustment difficulties: Development and validation of the Children's Oncology Child Adjustment Scale (ChOCs).

PubMed

Burke, Kylie; McCarthy, Maria; Lowe, Cherie; Sanders, Matthew R; Lloyd, Erin; Bowden, Madeleine; Williams, Lauren

2017-03-01

Childhood cancer is associated with child adjustment difficulties including, eating and sleep disturbance, and emotional and other behavioral difficulties. However, there is a lack of validated instruments to measure the specific child adjustment issues associated with pediatric cancer treatments. The aim of this study was to develop and evaluate the reliability and validity of a parent-reported, child adjustment scale. One hundred thirty-two parents from two pediatric oncology centers who had children (aged 2-10 years) diagnosed with cancer completed the newly developed measure and additional measures of child behavior, sleep, diet, and quality of life. Children were more than 4 weeks postdiagnosis and less than 12 months postactive treatment. Factor structure, internal consistency, and construct (convergent) validity analyses were conducted. Principal component analysis revealed five distinct and theoretically coherent factors: Sleep Difficulties, Impact of Child's Illness, Eating Difficulties, Hospital-Related Behavior Difficulties, and General Behavior Difficulties. The final 25-item measure, the Children's Oncology Child Adjustment Scale (ChOCs), demonstrated good internal consistency (α = 0.79-0.91). Validity of the ChOCs was demonstrated by significant correlations between the subscales and measures of corresponding constructs. The ChOCs provides a new measure of child adjustment difficulties designed specifically for pediatric oncology. Preliminary analyses indicate strong theoretical and psychometric properties. Future studies are required to further examine reliability and validity of the scale, including test-retest reliability, discriminant validity, as well as change sensitivity and generalizability across different oncology samples and ages of children. The ChOCs shows promise as a measure of child adjustment relevant for oncology clinical settings and research purposes. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Risk and Protective Factors at Age 16: Psychological Adjustment in Children With a Cleft Lip and/or Palate.

PubMed

Feragen, Kristin Billaud; Stock, Nicola Marie; Kvalem, Ingela Lundin

2015-09-01

Explore psychological functioning in adolescents with a cleft at age 16 from a broad perspective, including cognitive, emotional, behavioral, appearance-related, and psychosocial adjustment. High-risk groups were identified within each area of adjustment to investigate whether vulnerable adolescents were found across domains or whether risk was limited to specific areas of adjustment. Cross-sectional data based on psychological assessments at age 16 (N = 857). The effect of gender, cleft visibility, and the presence of an additional condition were investigated on all outcome variables. Results were compared with large national samples. Hopkins Symptom Checklist, Harter Self-Perception Scale for Adolescents, Child Experience Questionnaire, and Satisfaction With Appearance scale. The main factor influencing psychological adjustment across domains was gender, with girls in general reporting more psychological problems, as seen in reference groups. The presence of an additional condition also negatively affected some of the measures. No support was found for cleft visibility as a risk factor except for dissatisfaction with appearance. Correlation analyses of risk groups seem to point to an association between social and emotional risk and between social risk and dissatisfaction with appearance. Associations between other domains were found to be weak. The results point to areas of both risk and strength in adolescents born with a cleft lip and/or palate. Future research should investigate how protective factors could counteract potential risk in adolescents with a cleft.

Patient volume, staffing, and workload in relation to risk-adjusted outcomes in a random stratified sample of UK neonatal intensive care units: a prospective evaluation.

PubMed

Tucker, Janet

2002-01-12

UK recommendations suggest that large neonatal intensive-care units (NICUs) have better outcomes than small units, although this suggestion remains unproven. We assessed whether patient volume, staffing levels, and workload are associated with risk-adjusted outcomes, and with costs or staff wellbeing. 186 UK NICUs were stratified according to volume of patients, nursing provision, and neonatal consultant provision. Primary outcomes were hospital mortality, mortality or cerebral damage, and nosocomial bacteraemia. We studied 13515 infants of all birthweights consecutively admitted to 54 randomly selected NICUs. Multiple logistic regression analyses were done with every primary outcome as the dependent variable. Staff wellbeing and stress were assessed by anonymous mental health index (MHI)-5 questionnaires. Data were available for 13334 (99%) infants. High-volume NICUs treated the sickest infants and had highest crude mortality. Risk-adjusted mortality and mortality or cerebral damage were unrelated to patient volume or staffing provision; however, nosocomial bacteraemia was less frequent in NICUs with low neonatal consultant provision (odds ratio 0.65, 95% CI 0.43-0.98). Mortality was raised with increasing workload in all types of NICUs. Infants admitted at full capacity versus half capacity were about 50% more likely to die, but there was wide uncertainty around this estimate. Most staff had MHI-5 scores that suggested good mental health. The implications of this report for staffing policy, medicolegal risk management, and ethical practice remain to be tested. Centralisation of only the sickest infants could improve efficiency, provided that this does not create excessive workload for staff. Assessment of increased staffing levels that are closer to those in adult intensive care might be appropriate.

A Review on Methods of Risk Adjustment and their Use in Integrated Healthcare Systems

PubMed Central

Juhnke, Christin; Bethge, Susanne

2016-01-01

Introduction: Effective risk adjustment is an aspect that is more and more given weight on the background of competitive health insurance systems and vital healthcare systems. The objective of this review was to obtain an overview of existing models of risk adjustment as well as on crucial weights in risk adjustment. Moreover, the predictive performance of selected methods in international healthcare systems should be analysed. Theory and methods: A comprehensive, systematic literature review on methods of risk adjustment was conducted in terms of an encompassing, interdisciplinary examination of the related disciplines. Results: In general, several distinctions can be made: in terms of risk horizons, in terms of risk factors or in terms of the combination of indicators included. Within these, another differentiation by three levels seems reasonable: methods based on mortality risks, methods based on morbidity risks as well as those based on information on (self-reported) health status. Conclusions and discussion: After the final examination of different methods of risk adjustment it was shown that the methodology used to adjust risks varies. The models differ greatly in terms of their included morbidity indicators. The findings of this review can be used in the evaluation of integrated healthcare delivery systems and can be integrated into quality- and patient-oriented reimbursement of care providers in the design of healthcare contracts. PMID:28316544

Developing and validating risk prediction models in an individual participant data meta-analysis

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Risk prediction models estimate the risk of developing future outcomes for individuals based on one or more underlying characteristics (predictors). We review how researchers develop and validate risk prediction models within an individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis, in order to assess the feasibility and conduct of the approach. Methods A qualitative review of the aims, methodology, and reporting in 15 articles that developed a risk prediction model using IPD from multiple studies. Results The IPD approach offers many opportunities but methodological challenges exist, including: unavailability of requested IPD, missing patient data and predictors, and between-study heterogeneity in methods of measurement, outcome definitions and predictor effects. Most articles develop their model using IPD from all available studies and perform only an internal validation (on the same set of data). Ten of the 15 articles did not allow for any study differences in baseline risk (intercepts), potentially limiting their model’s applicability and performance in some populations. Only two articles used external validation (on different data), including a novel method which develops the model on all but one of the IPD studies, tests performance in the excluded study, and repeats by rotating the omitted study. Conclusions An IPD meta-analysis offers unique opportunities for risk prediction research. Researchers can make more of this by allowing separate model intercept terms for each study (population) to improve generalisability, and by using ‘internal-external cross-validation’ to simultaneously develop and validate their model. Methodological challenges can be reduced by prospectively planned collaborations that share IPD for risk prediction. PMID:24397587

Development of a risk-adjustment model for antimicrobial utilization data in 21 public hospitals in Queensland, Australia (2006-11).

PubMed

Rajmokan, M; Morton, A; Marquess, J; Playford, E G; Jones, M

2013-10-01

Making valid comparisons of antimicrobial utilization between hospitals requires risk adjustment for each hospital's case mix. Data on individual patients may be unavailable or difficult to process. Therefore, risk adjustment for antimicrobial usage frequently needs to be based on a hospital's services. This study evaluated such a strategy for hospital antimicrobial utilization. Data were obtained on five broad subclasses of antibiotics [carbapenems, β-lactam/β-lactamase inhibitor combinations (BLBLIs), fluoroquinolones, glycopeptides and third-generation cephalosporins] from the Queensland pharmacy database (MedTrx) for 21 acute public hospitals (2006-11). Eleven clinical services and a variable for hospitals from the tropical region were employed for risk adjustment. Multivariable regression models were used to identify risk and protective services for these antibiotics. Funnel plots were used to display hospitals' antimicrobial utilization. Total inpatient antibiotic utilization for these antibiotics increased from 130.6 defined daily doses (DDDs)/1000 patient-days in 2006 to 155.8 DDDs/1000 patient-days in 2011 (P < 0.0001). Except for third-generation cephalosporins, the average utilization rate was higher for intensive care, renal/nephrology, cardiac, burns/plastic surgery, neurosurgery, transplant and acute spinal services than for the respective reference group (no service). In addition, oncology, high-activity infectious disease and coronary care services were associated with higher utilization of carbapenems, BLBLIs and glycopeptides. Our model predicted antimicrobial utilization rates by hospital services. The funnel plots displayed hospital utilization data after adjustment for variation among the hospitals. However, the methodology needs to be validated in other populations, ideally using a larger group of hospitals.

Validation of the Parenting and Family Adjustment Scales to Measure Parenting Skills and Family Adjustment in Chinese Parents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Guo, Mingchun; Morawska, Alina; Filus, Ania

2017-01-01

This study validated a parent-report measure of the Parenting and Family Adjustment Scales in a Chinese cultural context through investigating 650 Chinese parents. The results provided evidence for satisfactory reliability and validity of Parenting and Family Adjustment Scales in a Chinese context, which is thus promising to be used for Chinese…

The construction and validity analysis of AQHI based on mortality risk: A case study in Guangzhou, China.

PubMed

Li, Xing; Xiao, Jianpeng; Lin, Hualiang; Liu, Tao; Qian, Zhengmin; Zeng, Weilin; Guo, Lingchuan; Ma, Wenjun

2017-01-01

The current air quality indices have been criticized for not capturing combined health effects of multiple air pollutants. We proposed an Air Quality Health Index (AQHI) based on the air pollution-mortality associations for communicating health risks of air pollution. Time-series studies were conducted to estimate the associations between air pollutants including sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ), nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ), ozone (O 3 ), suspended particulate matter smaller than 2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM 2.5 ) and mortality in Guangzhou from 2012 to 2015. The sum of excess mortality risk was calculated to construct the AQHI, which was then adjusted to an arbitrary scale. We then assessed the validity of AQHI. An interquartile increase (IQR) of AQHI was associated with 3.61% [95% confidence interval (95% CI), 2.85%-4.37%], 3.73% (95%CI, 2.18%-5.27%) and 4.19% (95%CI, 2.87%-5.52%) increase of mortality, respiratory and cardiovascular hospital admissions, respectively. Compared with the currently used Air Quality Index (AQI), AQHI had higher effects on mortality and morbidity. Our study suggests that AQHI might comprehensively capture the combined effects of air pollution, which make it be a more valid communication tool of air pollution-related health risk. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Incorporating Comorbidity Within Risk Adjustment for UK Pediatric Cardiac Surgery.

PubMed

Brown, Katherine L; Rogers, Libby; Barron, David J; Tsang, Victor; Anderson, David; Tibby, Shane; Witter, Thomas; Stickley, John; Crowe, Sonya; English, Kate; Franklin, Rodney C; Pagel, Christina

2017-07-01

When considering early survival rates after pediatric cardiac surgery it is essential to adjust for risk linked to case complexity. An important but previously less well understood component of case mix complexity is comorbidity. The National Congenital Heart Disease Audit data representing all pediatric cardiac surgery procedures undertaken in the United Kingdom and Ireland between 2009 and 2014 was used to develop and test groupings for comorbidity and additional non-procedure-based risk factors within a risk adjustment model for 30-day mortality. A mixture of expert consensus based opinion and empiric statistical analyses were used to define and test the new comorbidity groups. The study dataset consisted of 21,838 pediatric cardiac surgical procedure episodes in 18,834 patients with 539 deaths (raw 30-day mortality rate, 2.5%). In addition to surgical procedure type, primary cardiac diagnosis, univentricular status, age, weight, procedure type (bypass, nonbypass, or hybrid), and era, the new risk factor groups of non-Down congenital anomalies, acquired comorbidities, increased severity of illness indicators (eg, preoperative mechanical ventilation or circulatory support) and additional cardiac risk factors (eg, heart muscle conditions and raised pulmonary arterial pressure) all independently increased the risk of operative mortality. In an era of low mortality rates across a wide range of operations, non-procedure-based risk factors form a vital element of risk adjustment and their presence leads to wide variations in the predicted risk of a given operation. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

External Validation and Recalibration of Risk Prediction Models for Acute Traumatic Brain Injury among Critically Ill Adult Patients in the United Kingdom.

PubMed

Harrison, David A; Griggs, Kathryn A; Prabhu, Gita; Gomes, Manuel; Lecky, Fiona E; Hutchinson, Peter J A; Menon, David K; Rowan, Kathryn M

2015-10-01

This study validates risk prediction models for acute traumatic brain injury (TBI) in critical care units in the United Kingdom and recalibrates the models to this population. The Risk Adjustment In Neurocritical care (RAIN) Study was a prospective, observational cohort study in 67 adult critical care units. Adult patients admitted to critical care following acute TBI with a last pre-sedation Glasgow Coma Scale score of less than 15 were recruited. The primary outcomes were mortality and unfavorable outcome (death or severe disability, assessed using the Extended Glasgow Outcome Scale) at six months following TBI. Of 3626 critical care unit admissions, 2975 were analyzed. Following imputation of missing outcomes, mortality at six months was 25.7% and unfavorable outcome 57.4%. Ten risk prediction models were validated from Hukkelhoven and colleagues, the Medical Research Council (MRC) Corticosteroid Randomisation After Significant Head Injury (CRASH) Trial Collaborators, and the International Mission for Prognosis and Analysis of Clinical Trials in TBI (IMPACT) group. The model with the best discrimination was the IMPACT "Lab" model (C index, 0.779 for mortality and 0.713 for unfavorable outcome). This model was well calibrated for mortality at six months but substantially under-predicted the risk of unfavorable outcome. Recalibration of the models resulted in small improvements in discrimination and excellent calibration for all models. The risk prediction models demonstrated sufficient statistical performance to support their use in research and audit but fell below the level required to guide individual patient decision-making. The published models for unfavorable outcome at six months had poor calibration in the UK critical care setting and the models recalibrated to this setting should be used in future research.

Multiple imputation for handling missing outcome data when estimating the relative risk.

PubMed

Sullivan, Thomas R; Lee, Katherine J; Ryan, Philip; Salter, Amy B

2017-09-06

Multiple imputation is a popular approach to handling missing data in medical research, yet little is known about its applicability for estimating the relative risk. Standard methods for imputing incomplete binary outcomes involve logistic regression or an assumption of multivariate normality, whereas relative risks are typically estimated using log binomial models. It is unclear whether misspecification of the imputation model in this setting could lead to biased parameter estimates. Using simulated data, we evaluated the performance of multiple imputation for handling missing data prior to estimating adjusted relative risks from a correctly specified multivariable log binomial model. We considered an arbitrary pattern of missing data in both outcome and exposure variables, with missing data induced under missing at random mechanisms. Focusing on standard model-based methods of multiple imputation, missing data were imputed using multivariate normal imputation or fully conditional specification with a logistic imputation model for the outcome. Multivariate normal imputation performed poorly in the simulation study, consistently producing estimates of the relative risk that were biased towards the null. Despite outperforming multivariate normal imputation, fully conditional specification also produced somewhat biased estimates, with greater bias observed for higher outcome prevalences and larger relative risks. Deleting imputed outcomes from analysis datasets did not improve the performance of fully conditional specification. Both multivariate normal imputation and fully conditional specification produced biased estimates of the relative risk, presumably since both use a misspecified imputation model. Based on simulation results, we recommend researchers use fully conditional specification rather than multivariate normal imputation and retain imputed outcomes in the analysis when estimating relative risks. However fully conditional specification is not without its

Validation of column-based chromatography processes for the purification of proteins. Technical report No. 14.

PubMed

2008-01-01

PDA Technical Report No. 14 has been written to provide current best practices, such as application of risk-based decision making, based in sound science to provide a foundation for the validation of column-based chromatography processes and to expand upon information provided in Technical Report No. 42, Process Validation of Protein Manufacturing. The intent of this technical report is to provide an integrated validation life-cycle approach that begins with the use of process development data for the definition of operational parameters as a basis for validation, confirmation, and/or minor adjustment to these parameters at manufacturing scale during production of conformance batches and maintenance of the validated state throughout the product's life cycle.

45 CFR 153.310 - Risk adjustment administration.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 1 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Risk adjustment administration. 153.310 Section 153.310 Public Welfare DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES REQUIREMENTS RELATING TO HEALTH CARE ACCESS STANDARDS RELATED TO REINSURANCE, RISK CORRIDORS, AND RISK ADJUSTMENT UNDER THE AFFORDABLE CARE...

45 CFR 153.310 - Risk adjustment administration.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 1 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Risk adjustment administration. 153.310 Section 153.310 Public Welfare Department of Health and Human Services REQUIREMENTS RELATING TO HEALTH CARE ACCESS STANDARDS RELATED TO REINSURANCE, RISK CORRIDORS, AND RISK ADJUSTMENT UNDER THE AFFORDABLE CARE...

45 CFR 153.310 - Risk adjustment administration.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 1 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Risk adjustment administration. 153.310 Section 153.310 Public Welfare DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES REQUIREMENTS RELATING TO HEALTH CARE ACCESS STANDARDS RELATED TO REINSURANCE, RISK CORRIDORS, AND RISK ADJUSTMENT UNDER THE AFFORDABLE CARE...

Uranium Associations with Kidney Outcomes Vary by Urine Concentration Adjustment Method

PubMed Central

Shelley, Rebecca; Kim, Nam-Soo; Parsons, Patrick J.; Lee, Byung-Kook; Agnew, Jacqueline; Jaar, Bernard G.; Steuerwald, Amy J.; Matanoski, Genevieve; Fadrowski, Jeffrey; Schwartz, Brian S.; Todd, Andrew C.; Simon, David; Weaver, Virginia M.

2017-01-01

Uranium is a ubiquitous metal that is nephrotoxic at high doses. Few epidemiologic studies have examined the kidney filtration impact of chronic environmental exposure. In 684 lead workers environmentally exposed to uranium, multiple linear regression was used to examine associations of uranium measured in a four-hour urine collection with measured creatinine clearance, serum creatinine- and cystatin-C-based estimated glomerular filtration rates, and N-acetyl-β-D-glucosaminidase (NAG). Three methods were utilized, in separate models, to adjust uranium levels for urine concentration - μg uranium/g creatinine; μg uranium/L and urine creatinine as separate covariates; and μg uranium/4 hr. Median urine uranium levels were 0.07 μg/g creatinine and 0.02 μg/4 hr and were highly correlated (rs =0.95). After adjustment, higher ln-urine uranium was associated with lower measured creatinine clearance and higher NAG in models that used urine creatinine to adjust for urine concentration but not in models that used total uranium excreted (μg/4 hr). These results suggest that, in some instances, associations between urine toxicants and kidney outcomes may be statistical, due to the use of urine creatinine in both exposure and outcome metrics, rather than nephrotoxic. These findings support consideration of non-creatinine-based methods of adjustment for urine concentration in nephrotoxicant research. PMID:23591699

Risk Selection, Risk Adjustment and Choice: Concepts and Lessons from the Americas

PubMed Central

Ellis, Randall P.; Fernandez, Juan Gabriel

2013-01-01

Interest has grown worldwide in risk adjustment and risk sharing due to their potential to contain costs, improve fairness, and reduce selection problems in health care markets. Significant steps have been made in the empirical development of risk adjustment models, and in the theoretical foundations of risk adjustment and risk sharing. This literature has often modeled the effects of risk adjustment without highlighting the institutional setting, regulations, and diverse selection problems that risk adjustment is intended to fix. Perhaps because of this, the existing literature and their recommendations for optimal risk adjustment or optimal payment systems are sometimes confusing. In this paper, we present a unified way of thinking about the organizational structure of health care systems, which enables us to focus on two key dimensions of markets that have received less attention: what choices are available that may lead to selection problems, and what financial or regulatory tools other than risk adjustment are used to influence these choices. We specifically examine the health care systems, choices, and problems in four countries: the US, Canada, Chile, and Colombia, and examine the relationship between selection-related efficiency and fairness problems and the choices that are allowed in each country, and discuss recent regulatory reforms that affect choices and selection problems. In this sample, countries and insurance programs with more choices have more selection problems. PMID:24284351

Integrating Risk Adjustment and Enrollee Premiums in Health Plan Payment

PubMed Central

McGuire, Thomas G.; Glazer, Jacob; Newhouse, Joseph P.; Normand, Sharon-Lise; Shi, Julie; Sinaiko, Anna D.; Zuvekas, Samuel

2013-01-01

In two important health policy contexts – private plans in Medicare and the new state-run “Exchanges” created as part of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) – plan payments come from two sources: risk-adjusted payments from a Regulator and premiums charged to individual enrollees. This paper derives principles for integrating risk-adjusted payments and premium policy in individual health insurance markets based on fitting total plan payments to health plan costs per person as closely as possible. A least squares regression including both health status and variables used in premiums reveals the weights a Regulator should put on risk adjusters when markets determine premiums. We apply the methods to an Exchange-eligible population drawn from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS). PMID:24308878

A demand-side view of risk adjustment.

PubMed

Feldman, R; Dowd, B E; Maciejewski, M

2001-01-01

This paper analyzes the efficient allocation of consumers to health plans. Specifically, we address the question of why employers that offer multiple health plans often make larger contributions to the premiums of the high-cost plans. Our perspective is that the subsidy for high-cost plans represents a form of demand-side risk adjustment that improves efficiency. Without such subsidies (and in the absence of formal risk adjustment), too few employees would choose the high-cost plans preferred by high-risk workers. We test the theory by estimating a model of the employer premium subsidy, using data from a survey of large public employers in 1994. Our empirical analysis shows that employers are more likely to subsidize high-cost plans when the benefits of risk adjustment are greater. The findings suggest that the premium subsidy can accomplish some of the benefits of formal risk adjustment.

Reliability and validity of the Outcome Expectations for Exercise Scale-2.

PubMed

Resnick, Barbara

2005-10-01

Development of a reliable and valid measure of outcome expectations for exercise for older adults will help establish the relationship between outcome expectations and exercise and facilitate the development of interventions to increase physical activity in older adults. The purpose of this study was to test the reliability and validity of the Outcome Expectations for Exercise-2 Scale (OEE-2), a 13-item measure with two subscales: positive OEE (POEE) and negative OEE (NOEE). The OEE-2 scale was given to 161 residents in a continuing-care retirement community. There was some evidence of validity based on confirmatory factor analysis, Rasch-analysis INFIT and OUTFIT statistics, and convergent validity and test criterion relationships. There was some evidence for reliability of the OEE-2 based on alpha coefficients, person- and item-separation reliability indexes, and R(2)values. Based on analyses, suggested revisions are provided for future use of the OEE-2. Although ongoing reliability and validity testing are needed, the OEE-2 scale can be used to identify older adults with low outcome expectations for exercise, and interventions can then be implemented to strengthen these expectations and improve exercise behavior.

Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act; standards related to reinsurance, risk corridors, and risk adjustment. Final rule.

PubMed

2012-03-23

This final rule implements standards for States related to reinsurance and risk adjustment, and for health insurance issuers related to reinsurance, risk corridors, and risk adjustment consistent with title I of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act as amended by the Health Care and Education Reconciliation Act of 2010, referred to collectively as the Affordable Care Act. These programs will mitigate the impact of potential adverse selection and stabilize premiums in the individual and small group markets as insurance reforms and the Affordable Insurance Exchanges ("Exchanges") are implemented, starting in 2014. The transitional State-based reinsurance program serves to reduce uncertainty by sharing risk in the individual market through making payments for high claims costs for enrollees. The temporary Federally administered risk corridors program serves to protect against uncertainty in rate setting by qualified health plans sharing risk in losses and gains with the Federal government. The permanent State-based risk adjustment program provides payments to health insurance issuers that disproportionately attract high-risk populations (such as individuals with chronic conditions).

Derivation and validation of a diagnostic score based on case-mix groups to predict 30-day death or urgent readmission.

PubMed

van Walraven, Carl; Wong, Jenna; Forster, Alan J

2012-01-01

Between 5% and 10% of patients die or are urgently readmitted within 30 days of discharge from hospital. Readmission risk indexes have either excluded acute diagnoses or modelled them as multiple distinct variables. In this study, we derived and validated a score summarizing the influence of acute hospital diagnoses and procedures on death or urgent readmission within 30 days. From population-based hospital abstracts in Ontario, we randomly sampled 200 000 discharges between April 2003 and March 2009 and determined who had been readmitted urgently or died within 30 days of discharge. We used generalized estimating equation modelling, with a sample of 100 000 patients, to measure the adjusted association of various case-mix groups (CMGs-homogenous groups of acute care inpatients with similar clinical and resource-utilization characteristics) with 30-day death or urgent readmission. This final model was transformed into a scoring system that was validated in the remaining 100 000 patients. Patients in the derivation set belonged to 1 of 506 CMGs and had a 6.8% risk of 30-day death or urgent readmission. Forty-seven CMG codes (more than half of which were directly related to chronic diseases) were independently associated with this outcome, which led to a CMG score that ranged from -6 to 7 points. The CMG score was significantly associated with 30-day death or urgent readmission (unadjusted odds ratio for a 1-point increase in CMG score 1.52, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.49-1.56). Alone, the CMG score was only moderately discriminative (C statistic 0.650, 95% CI 0.644-0.656). However, when the CMG score was added to a validated risk index for death or readmission, the C statistic increased to 0.759 (95% CI 0.753-0.765). The CMG score was well calibrated for 30-day death or readmission. In this study, we developed a scoring system for acute hospital diagnoses and procedures that could be used as part of a risk-adjustment methodology for analyses of postdischarge

Are validated outcome measures used in distal radial fractures truly valid?

PubMed Central

Nienhuis, R. W.; Bhandari, M.; Goslings, J. C.; Poolman, R. W.; Scholtes, V. A. B.

2016-01-01

Objectives Patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) are often used to evaluate the outcome of treatment in patients with distal radial fractures. Which PROM to select is often based on assessment of measurement properties, such as validity and reliability. Measurement properties are assessed in clinimetric studies, and results are often reviewed without considering the methodological quality of these studies. Our aim was to systematically review the methodological quality of clinimetric studies that evaluated measurement properties of PROMs used in patients with distal radial fractures, and to make recommendations for the selection of PROMs based on the level of evidence of each individual measurement property. Methods A systematic literature search was performed in PubMed, EMbase, CINAHL and PsycINFO databases to identify relevant clinimetric studies. Two reviewers independently assessed the methodological quality of the studies on measurement properties, using the COnsensus-based Standards for the selection of health Measurement INstruments (COSMIN) checklist. Level of evidence (strong / moderate / limited / lacking) for each measurement property per PROM was determined by combining the methodological quality and the results of the different clinimetric studies. Results In all, 19 out of 1508 identified unique studies were included, in which 12 PROMs were rated. The Patient-rated wrist evaluation (PRWE) and the Disabilities of Arm, Shoulder and Hand questionnaire (DASH) were evaluated on most measurement properties. The evidence for the PRWE is moderate that its reliability, validity (content and hypothesis testing), and responsiveness are good. The evidence is limited that its internal consistency and cross-cultural validity are good, and its measurement error is acceptable. There is no evidence for its structural and criterion validity. The evidence for the DASH is moderate that its responsiveness is good. The evidence is limited that its reliability and the

Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis Risk Estimate Tool (PREsTo) Predicts Outcomes in PSC: A Derivation & Validation Study Using Machine Learning.

PubMed

Eaton, John E; Vesterhus, Mette; McCauley, Bryan M; Atkinson, Elizabeth J; Schlicht, Erik M; Juran, Brian D; Gossard, Andrea A; LaRusso, Nicholas F; Gores, Gregory J; Karlsen, Tom H; Lazaridis, Konstantinos N

2018-05-09

Improved methods are needed to risk stratify and predict outcomes in patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC). Therefore, we sought to derive and validate a new prediction model and compare its performance to existing surrogate markers. The model was derived using 509 subjects from a multicenter North American cohort and validated in an international multicenter cohort (n=278). Gradient boosting, a machine based learning technique, was used to create the model. The endpoint was hepatic decompensation (ascites, variceal hemorrhage or encephalopathy). Subjects with advanced PSC or cholangiocarcinoma at baseline were excluded. The PSC risk estimate tool (PREsTo) consists of 9 variables: bilirubin, albumin, serum alkaline phosphatase (SAP) times the upper limit of normal (ULN), platelets, AST, hemoglobin, sodium, patient age and the number of years since PSC was diagnosed. Validation in an independent cohort confirms PREsTo accurately predicts decompensation (C statistic 0.90, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.84-0.95) and performed well compared to MELD score (C statistic 0.72, 95% CI 0.57-0.84), Mayo PSC risk score (C statistic 0.85, 95% CI 0.77-0.92) and SAP < 1.5x ULN (C statistic 0.65, 95% CI 0.55-0.73). PREsTo continued to be accurate among individuals with a bilirubin < 2.0 mg/dL (C statistic 0.90, 95% CI 0.82-0.96) and when the score was re-applied at a later course in the disease (C statistic 0.82, 95% CI 0.64-0.95). PREsTo accurately predicts hepatic decompensation in PSC and exceeds the performance among other widely available, noninvasive prognostic scoring systems. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. © 2018 by the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases.

Belgium: risk adjustment and financial responsibility in a centralised system.

PubMed

Schokkaert, Erik; Van de Voorde, Carine

2003-07-01

Since 1995 Belgian sickness funds are partially financed through a risk adjustment system and are held partially financially responsible for the difference between their actual and their risk-adjusted expenditures. However, they did not get the necessary instruments for exerting a real influence on expenditures and the health insurance market has not been opened for new entrants. At the same time the sickness funds have powerful tools for risk selection, because they also dominate the market for supplementary health insurance. The present risk-adjustment system is based on the results of a regression analysis with aggregate data. The main proclaimed purpose of this system is to guarantee a fair treatment to all the sickness funds. Until now the danger of risk selection has not been taken seriously. Consumer mobility has remained rather low. However, since the degree of financial responsibility is programmed to increase in the near future, the potential profits from cream skimming will increase.

Using risk adjustment approaches in child welfare performance measurement: Applications and insights from health and mental health settings

PubMed Central

Raghavan, Ramesh

2014-01-01

Federal policymaking in the last decade has dramatically expanded performance measurement within child welfare systems, and states are currently being fiscally penalized for poor performance on defined outcomes. However, in contrast to performance measurement in health settings, current policy holds child welfare systems solely responsible for meeting outcomes, largely without taking into account the effects of factors at the level of the child, and his or her social ecology, that might undermine the performance of child welfare agencies. Appropriate measurement of performance is predicated upon the ability to disentangle individual, as opposed to organizational, determinants of outcomes, which is the goal of risk adjustment methodologies. This review briefly conceptualizes and examines risk adjustment approaches in health and child welfare, suggests approaches to expanding its use to appropriately measure the performance of child welfare agencies, and highlights research gaps that diminish the appropriate use of risk adjustment approaches – and which consequently suggest the need for caution – in policymaking around performance measurement of child welfare agencies. PMID:25253917

Adjustment and validation of a simulation tool for CSP plants based on parabolic trough technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García-Barberena, Javier; Ubani, Nora

2016-05-01

The present work presents the validation process carried out for a simulation tool especially designed for the energy yield assessment of concentrating solar plants based on parabolic through (PT) technology. The validation has been carried out by comparing the model estimations with real data collected from a commercial CSP plant. In order to adjust the model parameters used for the simulation, 12 different days were selected among one-year of operational data measured at the real plant. The 12 days were simulated and the estimations compared with the measured data, focusing on the most important variables from the simulation point of view: temperatures, pressures and mass flow of the solar field, gross power, parasitic power, and net power delivered by the plant. Based on these 12 days, the key parameters for simulating the model were properly fixed and the simulation of a whole year performed. The results obtained for a complete year simulation showed very good agreement for the gross and net electric total production. The estimations for these magnitudes show a 1.47% and 2.02% BIAS respectively. The results proved that the simulation software describes with great accuracy the real operation of the power plant and correctly reproduces its transient behavior.

A frailty index based on laboratory deficits in community-dwelling men predicted their risk of adverse health outcomes.

PubMed

Blodgett, Joanna M; Theou, Olga; Howlett, Susan E; Wu, Frederick C W; Rockwood, Kenneth

2016-07-01

abnormal laboratory test results accumulate with age and can be common in people with few clinically detectable health deficits. A frailty index (FI) based entirely on common physiological and laboratory tests (FI-Lab) might offer pragmatic and scientific advantages compared with a clinical FI (FI-Clin). to compare the FI-Lab with the FI-Clin and to assess their individual and combined relationships with mortality and other adverse health outcomes. secondary analysis of the eight-centre, longitudinal European Male Ageing Study (EMAS) of community-dwelling men aged 40-79 at baseline. Follow-up assessment occurred 4.4 ± 0.3 (mean ± SD) years later. we constructed a 23-item FI using common laboratory tests, blood pressure and pulse (FI-Lab), compared it with a previously validated 39-item FI using self-report and performance-based measures (FI-Clin) and finally combined both FIs to create a 62-item FI-Combined. Outcomes were all-cause mortality, institutionalisation, doctor visits, medication use, self-reported health, falls and fractures. the mean FI-Lab score was 0.28 ± 0.11, the FI-Clin was 0.13 ± 0.11 and FI-Combined was 0.19 ± 0.09. Age-adjusted models demonstrated that each FI was associated with mortality [HR (CI) FI-Lab: 1.04 (1.03-1.06); FI-Clin: 1.05 (1.04-1.06); FI-Combined: 1.07 (1.06-1.09)], institutionalisation, doctor visits, medication use, self-reported health and falls. Combined in a model with FI-Clin, the FI-Lab remained independently associated with mortality, institutionalisation, doctor visits, medication use and self-reported health. the FI-Lab detected an increased risk of adverse health outcomes alone and in combination with a clinical FI; further evaluation of the feasibility of the FI-Lab as a frailty screening tool within hospital care settings is needed. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Geriatrics Society. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Integrating risk adjustment and enrollee premiums in health plan payment.

PubMed

McGuire, Thomas G; Glazer, Jacob; Newhouse, Joseph P; Normand, Sharon-Lise; Shi, Julie; Sinaiko, Anna D; Zuvekas, Samuel H

2013-12-01

In two important health policy contexts - private plans in Medicare and the new state-run "Exchanges" created as part of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) - plan payments come from two sources: risk-adjusted payments from a Regulator and premiums charged to individual enrollees. This paper derives principles for integrating risk-adjusted payments and premium policy in individual health insurance markets based on fitting total plan payments to health plan costs per person as closely as possible. A least squares regression including both health status and variables used in premiums reveals the weights a Regulator should put on risk adjusters when markets determine premiums. We apply the methods to an Exchange-eligible population drawn from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS). Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Risk of Adverse Outcomes for Older People with Dementia Prescribed Antipsychotic Medication: A Population Based e-Cohort Study.

PubMed

Dennis, Michael; Shine, Laura; John, Ann; Marchant, Amanda; McGregor, Joanna; Lyons, Ronan A; Brophy, Sinead

2017-06-01

Over recent years there has been growing evidence of increased risk of mortality associated with antipsychotic use in older people with dementia. Although this concern combined with limited evidence of efficacy has informed guidelines restricting antipsychotic prescription in this population, the use of antipsycotics remains common. Many published studies only report short-term outcomes, are restricted to examining mortality and stroke risk or have other limitations. The aim of this study was to assess adverse outcomes associated with the use of antipsychotics in older people living with dementia in Wales (UK). This was a retrospective study of a population-based dementia cohort using the Welsh Secure Anonymised Information Linkage databank. The prior event rate ratio (PERR) was used to estimate the influence of exposure to antipsychotic medication on acute cardiac events, venous thromboembolism, stroke and hip fracture, and adjusted Cox proportional hazard models were used to compare all-cause mortality. A total of 10,339 people aged ≥65 years were identified with newly diagnosed dementia. After excluding those who did not meet the inclusion criteria, 9674 people remained in the main cohort of whom 3735 were exposed to antipsychotic medication. An increased risk of a venous thromboembolic episode [PERR 1.95, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.83-2.0], stroke (PERR 1.41, 95% CI 1.4-1.46) and hip fracture (PERR 1.62, 95% CI 1.59-1.65) was associated with antipsychotic use. However, there was no long-term increased mortality in people exposed to antipsychotics (adjusted hazard ratio 1.06, 95% CI 0.99-1.13). The increase in adverse medical events supports guidelines restricting antipsychotic use in this population.

Validation of the German Diabetes Risk Score within a population-based representative cohort.

PubMed

Hartwig, S; Kuss, O; Tiller, D; Greiser, K H; Schulze, M B; Dierkes, J; Werdan, K; Haerting, J; Kluttig, A

2013-09-01

To validate the German Diabetes Risk Score within the population-based cohort of the Cardiovascular Disease - Living and Ageing in Halle (CARLA) study. The sample included 582 women and 719 men, aged 45-83 years, who did not have diabetes at baseline. The individual risk of every participant was calculated using the German Diabetes Risk Score, which was modified for 4 years of follow-up. Predicted probabilities and observed outcomes were compared using Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit tests and receiver-operator characteristic analyses. Changes in prediction power were investigated by expanding the German Diabetes Risk Score to include metabolic variables and by subgroup analyses. We found 58 cases of incident diabetes. The median 4-year probability of developing diabetes based on the German Diabetes Risk Score was 6.5%. The observed and predicted probabilities of developing diabetes were similar, although estimation was imprecise owing to the small number of cases, and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test returned a poor correlation (chi-squared = 55.3; P = 5.8*10⁻¹²). The area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.70 (95% CI 0.64-0.77), and after excluding participants ≥66 years old, the AUC increased to 0.77 (95% CI 0.70-0.84). Consideration of glycaemic diagnostic variables, in addition to self-reported diabetes, reduced the AUC to 0.65 (95% CI 0.58-0.71). A new model that included the German Diabetes Risk Score and blood glucose concentration (AUC 0.81; 95% CI 0.76-0.86) or HbA(1c) concentration (AUC 0.84; 95% CI 0.80-0.91) was found to peform better. Application of the German Diabetes Risk Score in the CARLA cohort did not reproduce the findings in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) Potsdam study, which may be explained by cohort differences and model overfit in the latter; however, a high score does provide an indication of increased risk of diabetes. © 2013 The Authors. Diabetic Medicine © 2013 Diabetes

External Validation and Recalibration of Risk Prediction Models for Acute Traumatic Brain Injury among Critically Ill Adult Patients in the United Kingdom

PubMed Central

Griggs, Kathryn A.; Prabhu, Gita; Gomes, Manuel; Lecky, Fiona E.; Hutchinson, Peter J. A.; Menon, David K.; Rowan, Kathryn M.

2015-01-01

Abstract This study validates risk prediction models for acute traumatic brain injury (TBI) in critical care units in the United Kingdom and recalibrates the models to this population. The Risk Adjustment In Neurocritical care (RAIN) Study was a prospective, observational cohort study in 67 adult critical care units. Adult patients admitted to critical care following acute TBI with a last pre-sedation Glasgow Coma Scale score of less than 15 were recruited. The primary outcomes were mortality and unfavorable outcome (death or severe disability, assessed using the Extended Glasgow Outcome Scale) at six months following TBI. Of 3626 critical care unit admissions, 2975 were analyzed. Following imputation of missing outcomes, mortality at six months was 25.7% and unfavorable outcome 57.4%. Ten risk prediction models were validated from Hukkelhoven and colleagues, the Medical Research Council (MRC) Corticosteroid Randomisation After Significant Head Injury (CRASH) Trial Collaborators, and the International Mission for Prognosis and Analysis of Clinical Trials in TBI (IMPACT) group. The model with the best discrimination was the IMPACT “Lab” model (C index, 0.779 for mortality and 0.713 for unfavorable outcome). This model was well calibrated for mortality at six months but substantially under-predicted the risk of unfavorable outcome. Recalibration of the models resulted in small improvements in discrimination and excellent calibration for all models. The risk prediction models demonstrated sufficient statistical performance to support their use in research and audit but fell below the level required to guide individual patient decision-making. The published models for unfavorable outcome at six months had poor calibration in the UK critical care setting and the models recalibrated to this setting should be used in future research. PMID:25898072

Feasibility and Preliminary Outcomes of a School-Based Mindfulness Intervention for Urban Youth

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mendelson, Tamar; Greenberg, Mark T.; Dariotis, Jacinda K.; Gould, Laura Feagans; Rhoades, Brittany L.; Leaf, Philip J.

2010-01-01

Youth in underserved, urban communities are at risk for a range of negative outcomes related to stress, including social-emotional difficulties, behavior problems, and poor academic performance. Mindfulness-based approaches may improve adjustment among chronically stressed and disadvantaged youth by enhancing self-regulatory capacities. This paper…

45 CFR 153.340 - Data collection under risk adjustment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... issuers offering risk adjustment covered plans in the State comply with data privacy and security... 45 Public Welfare 1 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Data collection under risk adjustment. 153.340... CARE ACT State Standards Related to the Risk Adjustment Program § 153.340 Data collection under risk...

Risk adjustment and the fear of markets: the case of Belgium.

PubMed

Schokkaert, E; Van de Voorde, C

2000-02-01

In Belgium the management and administration of the compulsory and universal health insurance is left to a limited number of non-governmental non-profit sickness funds. Since 1995 these sickness funds are partially financed in a prospective way. The risk adjustment scheme is based on a regression model to explain medical expenditures for different social groups. Medical supply is taken out of the formula to construct risk-adjusted capitation payments. The risk-adjustment formula still leaves scope for risk selection. At the same time, the sickness funds were not given the instruments to exert a real influence on expenditures and the health insurance market has not been opened for new entrants. As a consequence, Belgium runs the danger of ending up in a situation with little incentives for efficiency and considerable profits from cream skimming.

Antenatal psychosocial risk factors associated with adverse postpartum family outcomes.

PubMed Central

Wilson, L M; Reid, A J; Midmer, D K; Biringer, A; Carroll, J C; Stewart, D E

1996-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To determine the strength of the association between antenatal psychosocial risk factors and adverse postpartum outcomes in the family, such as assault of women by their partner, child abuse, postpartum depression, marital dysfunction and physical illness. DATA SOURCES: MEDLINE, Cinahl, Famli, Psych Abstracts and the Oxford Database of Perinatal Trials were searched from relevant articles published from Jan. 1, 1980, to Dec. 31, 1993, with the use of MeSH terms "depression, involutional," "child abuse," "child neglect," "domestic violence," "family," "marital adjustment," "family health," "newborn health," "child health," "physical illness," "social support," "psychosocial risk," "prediction," "risk factors," "obstetrics" and "prenatal care." Further articles were identified from bibliographies. STUDY SELECTION: Of the 370 articles identified through the search, 118 were included for review. Studies were included if they examined the association between psychosocial risk factors and the outcomes of interest. Articles were excluded if they were reviews of poor quality or they had one or more of the following features: insufficient description of the sample, a high attrition rate, a lack of standardized outcome measures, outcomes other than the ones of interest or results that had already been reported in a previous study. DATA EXTRACTION: The strength of evidence of each study was evaluated. On the basis of the evidence, each risk factor was assigned a rating of the strength of its association with each of the postpartum outcomes. The ratings were class A (good evidence of association), class B (fair evidence) and class C (no clear evidence). Of the 129 antenatal psychosocial risk factors studied, 15 were found to have a class A association with at least one of the postpartum outcomes. DATA SYNTHESIS: Child abuse and abuse of the mother by her partner were most strongly correlated (class A evidence) with a history of lack of social support, recent life

Risk-adjusted performance evaluation in three academic thoracic surgery units using the Eurolung risk models.

PubMed

Pompili, Cecilia; Shargall, Yaron; Decaluwe, Herbert; Moons, Johnny; Chari, Madhu; Brunelli, Alessandro

2018-01-03

The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of 3 thoracic surgery centres using the Eurolung risk models for morbidity and mortality. This was a retrospective analysis performed on data collected from 3 academic centres (2014-2016). Seven hundred and twenty-one patients in Centre 1, 857 patients in Centre 2 and 433 patients in Centre 3 who underwent anatomical lung resections were analysed. The Eurolung1 and Eurolung2 models were used to predict risk-adjusted cardiopulmonary morbidity and 30-day mortality rates. Observed and risk-adjusted outcomes were compared within each centre. The observed morbidity of Centre 1 was in line with the predicted morbidity (observed 21.1% vs predicted 22.7%, P = 0.31). Centre 2 performed better than expected (observed morbidity 20.2% vs predicted 26.7%, P < 0.001), whereas the observed morbidity of Centre 3 was higher than the predicted morbidity (observed 41.1% vs predicted 24.3%, P < 0.001). Centre 1 had higher observed mortality when compared with the predicted mortality (3.6% vs 2.1%, P = 0.005), whereas Centre 2 had an observed mortality rate significantly lower than the predicted mortality rate (1.2% vs 2.5%, P = 0.013). Centre 3 had an observed mortality rate in line with the predicted mortality rate (observed 1.4% vs predicted 2.4%, P = 0.17). The observed mortality rates in the patients with major complications were 30.8% in Centre 1 (versus predicted mortality rate 3.8%, P < 0.001), 8.2% in Centre 2 (versus predicted mortality rate 4.1%, P = 0.030) and 9.0% in Centre 3 (versus predicted mortality rate 3.5%, P = 0.014). The Eurolung models were successfully used as risk-adjusting instruments to internally audit the outcomes of 3 different centres, showing their applicability for future quality improvement initiatives. © The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. All rights reserved.

Discovery and validation of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) pathway polymorphisms in esophageal adenocarcinoma outcome.

PubMed

Eng, Lawson; Azad, Abul Kalam; Qiu, Xin; Kong, Qin Quinn; Cheng, Dangxiao; Ying, Nanjiao; Tse, Alvina; Kuang, Qin; Dodbiba, Lorin; Renouf, Daniel J; Marsh, Sharon; Savas, Sevtap; Mackay, Helen J; Knox, Jennifer J; Darling, Gail E; Wong, Rebecca K S; Xu, Wei; Liu, Geoffrey; Faluyi, Olusola O

2015-09-01

Polymorphisms in the vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF)/angiogenesis pathway have been implicated previously in cancer risk, prognosis and response to therapy including in esophageal adenocarcinoma. Prior esophageal adenocarcinoma studies focused on using candidate polymorphisms, limiting the discovery of novel polymorphisms. Here, we applied the tagSNP (single nucleotide polymorphism) approach to identify new VEGF pathway polymorphisms associated with esophageal adenocarcinoma prognosis and validated them in an independent cohort of esophageal adenocarcinoma patients. In 231 esophageal adenocarcinoma patients of all stages/treatment plans, 58 genetic polymorphisms (18 KDR, 7 VEGFA and 33 FLT1) selected through tagging and assessment of predicted function were genotyped. Cox-proportional hazard models adjusted for important socio-demographic and clinico-pathological factors were applied to assess the association of genetic polymorphisms with overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS). Significantly associated polymorphisms were then validated in an independent cohort of 137 esophageal adenocarcinoma patients. Among the 231 discovery cohort patients, 86% were male, median diagnosis age was 64 years, 34% were metastatic at diagnosis and median OS and PFS were 20 and 12 months, respectively. KDR rs17709898 was found significantly associated with PFS (adjusted hazard ratio, aHR = 0.69, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.53-0.90; P = 5.9E-3). FLT1 rs3794405 and rs678714 were significantly associated with OS (aHR = 1.44, 95% CI: 1.04-1.99; P = 0.03 and aHR = 1.50, 95% CI: 1.01-2.24; P = 0.045, respectively). No VEGFA polymorphisms were found significantly associated with either outcome. Upon validation, FLT1 rs3794405 remained strongly associated with OS (aHR = 1.59, 95% CI: 1.04-2.44; P = 0.03). FLT1 rs3794405 is significantly associated with OS in esophageal adenocarcinoma, whereby each variant allele confers a 45-60% increased risk of mortality

Risks, Outcomes, and Evidence-Based Interventions for Girls in the US Juvenile Justice System.

PubMed

Leve, Leslie D; Chamberlain, Patricia; Kim, Hyoun K

2015-09-01

The proportion of the juvenile justice population that comprises females is increasing, yet few evidence-based models have been evaluated and implemented with girls in the juvenile justice system. Although much is known about the risk and protective factors for girls who participate in serious delinquency, significant gaps in the research base hamper the development and implementation of theoretically based intervention approaches. In this review, we first summarize the extant empirical work about the predictors and sequelae of juvenile justice involvement for girls. Identified risk and protective factors that correspond to girls' involvement in the juvenile justice system have been shown to largely parallel those of boys, although exposure rates and magnitudes of association sometimes differ by sex. Second, we summarize findings from empirically validated, evidence-based interventions for juvenile justice-involved youths that have been tested with girls. The interventions include Functional Family Therapy, Multisystemic Therapy, Multidimensional Family Therapy, and Treatment Foster Care Oregon (formerly known as Multidimensional Treatment Foster Care). We conclude that existing evidence-based practices appear to be effective for girls. However, few studies have been sufficiently designed to permit conclusions about whether sex-specific interventions would yield any better outcomes for girls than would interventions that already exist for both sexes and that have a strong base of evidence to support them. Third, we propose recommendations for feasible, cost-efficient next steps to advance the research and intervention agendas for this under-researched and underserved population of highly vulnerable youths.

The use of the finasteride-adjusted Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial Prostate Cancer Risk Calculator in a Mexican referral population: a validation study.

PubMed

Liang, Yuanyuan; Ketchum, Norma S; Louden, Christopher; Jimenez-Rios, Miguel A; Thompson, Ian M; Camarena-Reynoso, Hector R

2012-01-01

To perform the first validation study of the finasteride-adjusted Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial Prostate Cancer Risk Calculator (finPCPTRC) in a contemporary referral population in Mexico. 837 patients referred to the Instituto Nacional de Cancerología, Mexico City, Mexico, between 2005 and 2009 were used to validate the finPCPTRC by examining various measures of discrimination and calibration. Net benefit curve analysis was used to gain insight into the use of the finPCPTRC for clinical decisions. Prostate cancer (PCa) incidence (72.8%) was high in this Mexican referral cohort and 45.7% of men who were diagnosed with PCa had high-grade lesions (HGPCa, Gleason score >6). 1.3% of the patients were taking finasteride. The finPCPTRC was a superior diagnostic tool compared to prostate-specific antigen alone when discriminating patients with PCa from those without PCa (AUC = 0.784 vs. AUC = 0.687, p < 0.001) and when discriminating patients with HGPCa from those without HGPCa (AUC = 0.768 vs. AUC = 0.739, p < 0.001). The finPCPTRC underestimated the risk of PCa but overestimated the risk of HGPCa (both p < 0.001). Compared with other strategies to opt for biopsy, the net benefit would be larger with utilization of the finPCPTRC for patients accepting higher risks of HGPCa. Rates of biopsy-detectable PCa and HGPCa were high and 1.3% of this referral cohort in Mexico was taking finasteride. The risks of PCa or HGPCa calculated by the finPCPTRC were not well calibrated for this referral Mexican population and new clinical diagnostic tools are needed. Copyright © 2012 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Internet-based modular program BADI for adjustment disorder: protocol of a randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Skruibis, Paulius; Eimontas, Jonas; Dovydaitiene, Migle; Mazulyte, Egle; Zelviene, Paulina; Kazlauskas, Evaldas

2016-07-26

Adjustment disorder is one of the most common mental health diagnoses. Still it receives relatively little attention from researchers trying to establish best interventions to treat it. With high prevalence of stressful life events, which might be leading to adjustment disorder, and limited resources of mental health service providers, online interventions could be a very practical way of helping people who have these disorders or are in the risk to develop them. The proposed study protocol is aimed to describe a randomized controlled trial of an internet-based modular intervention for adjustment disorder as it is defined in a proposal for the ICD-11. This study is a two-armed Randomized Controlled Trial (RCT) to examine the effectiveness of a web-based intervention BADI (Brief Adjustment Disorder Intervention) for adjustment disorder symptoms. BADI has four modules: Relaxation, Time management, Mindfulness and Strengthening relationships. It is based on stress and coping research and integrates evidence-based treatment approaches such as Cognitive Behavioural therapy (CBT), mindfulness and body-mind practices, as well as exercises for enhancing social support. Primary outcome of the study are symptoms of adjustment disorder and well-being. Engagement into the program and motivation for change is a secondary outcome. All participants after completing the baseline assessment are randomly assigned to one of the two groups: either to the one in which participant will instantly gain access to the BADI intervention or a group in which participants will be given access to the BADI program after waiting one month. Participants of BADI can choose exercises of the program flexibly. There is no particular order in which the exercises should be completed. Study will provide new insights of modular internet-based interventions efficacy for adjustment disorders. The study will also provide information about the role of motivation and expectancies on engagement in modular

Nursing Outcomes for Patients with Risk of Perioperative Positioning Injury.

PubMed

de Lima, Luciana Bjorklund; E Cardozo, Michelle Cardoso; Bernardes, Daniela de Souza; Rabelo-Silva, Eneida Rejane

2018-04-16

To select and refine the outcomes and indicators of Nursing Outcomes Classification for the diagnosis of risk for perioperative positioning injury. Validation study on expert consensus and refinement through pilot study. Eight outcomes and 35 indicators were selected in consensus. After clinical testing was performed, in which 10 patients were assessed at five different times. Eight outcomes and 33 indicators remained in the protocol. This study made it possible to select the most relevant outcomes and indicators to be measured for this diagnosis in clinical practice. Validation studies by consensus and clinical testing are important to promote the accuracy, creating opportunities to legitimize, and improve the concepts of taxonomies. © 2018 NANDA International, Inc.

Association of urinary metal profiles with altered glucose levels and diabetes risk: a population-based study in China.

PubMed

Feng, Wei; Cui, Xiuqing; Liu, Bing; Liu, Chuanyao; Xiao, Yang; Lu, Wei; Guo, Huan; He, Meian; Zhang, Xiaomin; Yuan, Jing; Chen, Weihong; Wu, Tangchun

2015-01-01

Elevated heavy metals and fasting plasma glucose (FPG) levels were both associated with increased risk of cardiovascular diseases. However, studies on the associations of heavy metals and essential elements with altered FPG and diabetes risk were limited or conflicting. The objective of this study was to evaluate the potential associations of heavy metals and essential trace elements with FPG and diabetes risk among general Chinese population. We conducted a cross-sectional study to investigate the associations of urinary concentrations of 23 metals with FPG, impaired fasting glucose (IFG) and diabetes among 2242 community-based Chinese adults in Wuhan. We used the false discovery rate (FDR) method to correct for multiple hypothesis tests. After adjusting for potential confounders, urinary aluminum, titanium, cobalt, nickel, copper, zinc, selenium, rubidium, strontium, molybdenum, cadmium, antimony, barium, tungsten and lead were associated with altered FPG, IFG or diabetes risk (all P< 0.05); arsenic was only dose-dependently related to diabetes (P< 0.05). After additional adjustment for multiple testing, titanium, copper, zinc, selenium, rubidium, tungsten and lead were still significantly associated with one or more outcomes (all FDR-adjusted P< 0.05). Our results suggest that multiple metals in urine are associated with FPG, IFG or diabetes risk. Because the cross-sectional design precludes inferences about causality, further prospective studies are warranted to validate our findings.

Alternative Payment Models Should Risk-Adjust for Conversion Total Hip Arthroplasty: A Propensity Score-Matched Study.

PubMed

McLawhorn, Alexander S; Schairer, William W; Schwarzkopf, Ran; Halsey, David A; Iorio, Richard; Padgett, Douglas E

2017-12-06

For Medicare beneficiaries, hospital reimbursement for nonrevision hip arthroplasty is anchored to either diagnosis-related group code 469 or 470. Under alternative payment models, reimbursement for care episodes is not further risk-adjusted. This study's purpose was to compare outcomes of primary total hip arthroplasty (THA) vs conversion THA to explore the rationale for risk adjustment for conversion procedures. All primary and conversion THAs from 2007 to 2014, excluding acute hip fractures and cancer patients, were identified in the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database. Conversion and primary THA patients were matched 1:1 using propensity scores, based on preoperative covariates. Multivariable logistic regressions evaluated associations between conversion THA and 30-day outcomes. A total of 2018 conversions were matched to 2018 primaries. There were no differences in preoperative covariates. Conversions had longer operative times (148 vs 95 minutes, P < .001), more transfusions (37% vs 17%, P < .001), and longer length of stay (4.4 vs 3.1 days, P < .001). Conversion THA had increased odds of complications (odds ratio [OR] 1.75; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.37-2.24), deep infection (OR 4.21; 95% CI 1.72-10.28), discharge to inpatient care (OR 1.52; 95% CI 1.34-1.72), and death (OR 2.39; 95% CI 1.04-5.47). Readmission odds were similar. Compared with primary THA, conversion THA is associated with more complications, longer length of stay, and increased discharge to continued inpatient care, implying greater resource utilization for conversion patients. As reimbursement models shift toward bundled payment paradigms, conversion THA appears to be a procedure for which risk adjustment is appropriate. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Incidence, risk factors, management, and outcomes of stroke in pregnancy.

PubMed

Scott, Catherine A; Bewley, Susan; Rudd, Anthony; Spark, Patsy; Kurinczuk, Jennifer J; Brocklehurst, Peter; Knight, Marian

2012-08-01

To estimate the incidence of antenatal stroke in the United Kingdom and to describe risk factors associated with stroke during pregnancy, management, and outcomes. A population-based (nationwide) cohort and nested case-control study was conducted using the UK Obstetric Surveillance System between October 2007 and March 2010. We investigated the potential factors associated with antenatal stroke using a logistic regression analysis to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Thirty cases of antenatal stroke were reported giving an estimated incidence of 1.5 cases per 100,000 women delivering (95% CI 1.0-2.1). The incidences of nonhemorrhagic and hemorrhagic stroke were 0.9 (95% CI 0.5-1.3) and 0.6 (95% CI 0.3-1.0) per 100,000 women delivering. Factors associated with increased risk of antenatal stroke were history of migraine (adjusted OR 8.5, 95% CI 1.5-62.1), gestational diabetes (adjusted OR 26.8, 95% CI 3.2-∞), and preeclampsia or eclampsia (adjusted OR 7.7, 95% CI 1.3-55.7). There was wide variation in the use of pharmacologic, surgical, and organized stroke unit care. There were six stroke-related maternal deaths giving a case-fatality rate of 20% of all strokes, 50% of hemorrhagic strokes, and a mortality rate of 0.3 (95% CI 0.1-0.6) per 100,000 women delivering. The risk of a stroke during pregnancy is low; however, the poor outcomes in terms of morbidity and mortality and variations in care highlight the importance of such women receiving specialist stroke care. Clinicians should be aware of an association with a history of migraine, gestational diabetes, and preeclampsia or eclampsia. II.

Affordable Care Act risk adjustment: overview, context, and challenges.

PubMed

Kautter, John; Pope, Gregory C; Keenan, Patricia

2014-01-01

Beginning in 2014, individuals and small businesses will be able to purchase private health insurance through competitive marketplaces. The Affordable Care Act (ACA) provides for a program of risk adjustment in the individual and small group markets in 2014 as Marketplaces are implemented and new market reforms take effect. The purpose of risk adjustment is to lessen or eliminate the influence of risk selection on the premiums that plans charge and the incentive for plans to avoid sicker enrollees. This article--the first of three in the Medicare & Medicaid Research Review--describes the key program goal and issues in the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) developed risk adjustment methodology, and identifies key choices in how the methodology responds to these issues. The goal of the HHS risk adjustment methodology is to compensate health insurance plans for differences in enrollee health mix so that plan premiums reflect differences in scope of coverage and other plan factors, but not differences in health status. The methodology includes a risk adjustment model and a risk transfer formula that together address this program goal as well as three issues specific to ACA risk adjustment: 1) new population; 2) cost and rating factors; and 3) balanced transfers within state/market. The risk adjustment model, described in the second article, estimates differences in health risks taking into account the new population and scope of coverage (actuarial value level). The transfer formula, described in the third article, calculates balanced transfers that are intended to account for health risk differences while preserving permissible premium differences.

Using Performance-Based Risk-Sharing Arrangements to Address Uncertainty in Indication-Based Pricing.

PubMed

Yeung, Kai; Li, Meng; Carlson, Josh J

2017-10-01

The rise in pharmaceutical expenditures in recent years has increased health care payer interest in ensuring good value for the money. Indication-based pricing (IBP) sets separate, indication-specific prices paid to the manufacturer according to the expected efficacy of a drug in each of its indications. IBP allows payers to consistently pay for value across indications. While promising, a limitation of IBP as originally conceived is that efficacy estimates are typically based on clinical trial data, which may differ from real-world effectiveness. An outcomes guarantee is a type of performance-based risk-sharing arrangement that adjusts payments according to prospectively tracked outcomes. We suggest that an outcomes guarantee contract, which has been used by some payers, may be adapted to achieve indication-based prices supported by real-world effectiveness. To illustrate the potential of an outcomes guarantee to achieve indication-based prices aligned with real-world value, using a case study of trastuzumab for the treatment of metastatic breast and advanced gastric cancers. We estimated costs and outcomes under traditional IBP (i.e., expected value IBP) and outcomes guarantee frameworks and calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) comparing treatment with and without trastuzumab. Efficacy data came from pivotal trials, whereas effectiveness data came from observational studies. We adjusted trastuzumab prices in order to achieve target ICERs of $150,000 per quality-adjusted life-year under each framework and for each indication. To achieve the ICER target under traditional IBP, the unit price of trastuzumab using efficacy evidence was adjusted for metastatic breast and advanced gastric cancers from an average sales price of $9.17 per mg to $3.50 per mg and $0.93 per mg, respectively. Under an outcomes guarantee, the unit price of trastuzumab using effectiveness evidence was adjusted for metastatic breast cancer and advanced gastric cancer to $8

Risk-adjusted capitation: recent experiences in The Netherlands.

PubMed

van de Ven, W P; van Vliet, R C; van Barneveld, E M; Lamers, L M

1994-01-01

The market-oriented health care reforms taking place in the Netherlands show a clear resemblance to the proposals for managed competition in U.S. health care. In both countries good risk adjustment mechanisms that prevent cream skimming--that is, that prevent plans from selecting the best health risks--are critical to the success of the reforms. In this paper we present an overview of the Dutch reforms and of our research concerning risk-adjusted capitation payments. Although we are optimistic about the technical possibilities for solving the problem of cream skimming, the implementation of good risk-adjusted capitation is a long-term challenge.

Predictors of outcome after elective endovascular abdominal aortic aneurysm repair and external validation of a risk prediction model.

PubMed

Wisniowski, Brendan; Barnes, Mary; Jenkins, Jason; Boyne, Nicholas; Kruger, Allan; Walker, Philip J

2011-09-01

Endovascular abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair (EVAR) has been associated with lower operative mortality and morbidity than open surgery but comparable long-term mortality and higher delayed complication and reintervention rates. Attention has therefore been directed to identifying preoperative and operative variables that influence outcomes after EVAR. Risk-prediction models, such as the EVAR Risk Assessment (ERA) model, have also been developed to help surgeons plan EVAR procedures. The aims of this study were (1) to describe outcomes of elective EVAR at the Royal Brisbane and Women's Hospital (RBWH), (2) to identify preoperative and operative variables predictive of outcomes after EVAR, and (3) to externally validate the ERA model. All elective EVAR procedures at the RBWH before July 1, 2009, were reviewed. Descriptive analyses were performed to determine the outcomes. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify preoperative and operative variables predictive of outcomes after EVAR. Binomial logistic regression analyses were used to externally validate the ERA model. Before July 1, 2009, 197 patients (172 men), who were a mean age of 72.8 years, underwent elective EVAR at the RBWH. Operative mortality was 1.0%. Survival was 81.1% at 3 years and 63.2% at 5 years. Multivariate analysis showed predictors of survival were age (P = .0126), American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score (P = .0180), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (P = .0348) at 3 years and age (P = .0103), ASA score (P = .0006), renal failure (P = .0048), and serum creatinine (P = .0022) at 5 years. Aortic branch vessel score was predictive of initial (30-day) type II endoleak (P = .0015). AAA tortuosity was predictive of midterm type I endoleak (P = .0251). Female sex was associated with lower rates of initial clinical success (P = .0406). The ERA model fitted RBWH data well for early death (C statistic = .906), 3-year survival (C statistic = .735), 5-year

Dental neglect and adverse birth outcomes: a validation and observational study.

PubMed

Acharya, S; Pentapati, K C; Bhat, P V

2013-05-01

The objectives of this study were to validate the Indian translation of the Dental Neglect Scale (DNS) among a sample of parturient Indian women and to investigate dental neglect as a possible risk indicator in adverse birth outcomes. Three hundred and sixteen parturient women were administered the DNS and the Modified Dental Beliefs Scale (MDBS) and were also clinically examined for oral health status. Information regarding socio-economic status, weeks of gestation and birth weight was also collected. A gestation period of less than 37 weeks was considered as preterm and a birth weight of less than 2500 gm as 'low birth weight'. The Indian version of the DNS was found to be reliable (Cronbach's Alpha = 0.72) and valid for assessing dental neglect among the women. Factor analysis of the DNS revealed a two-factor structure accounting for 56% variance. Dental neglect was higher among those with poorer oral health status, lower socio-economic and educational status. Multinomial logistic regression showed high dental neglect and negative dental beliefs and not poor oral health, as significant risk indicators for occurrence of adverse birth outcomes. The finding of an association of adverse birth outcomes with dental neglect and beliefs, but not with poor oral health could be due to the influence of other more important general factors which had a direct bearing on birth outcomes. There is a need for further research to assess the role of behavioural factors like dental neglect as risk indicators for adverse birth outcomes. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

The Influence of Cardiac Risk Factor Burden on Cardiac Stress Test Outcomes.

PubMed

Schrock, Jon W; Li, Morgan; Orazulike, Chidubem; Emerman, Charles L

2011-06-01

Chest pain is the most common admission diagnosis for observation unit patients. These patients often undergo cardiac stress testing to further risk stratify for coronary artery disease (CAD). The decision of whom to stress is currently based on clinical judgment. We sought to determine the influence of cardiac risk factor burden on cardiac stress test outcome for patients tested from an observation unit, inpatient or outpatient setting. We performed a retrospective observational cohort study for all patients undergoing stress testing in our institution from June 2006 through July 2007. Cardiac risk factors were collected at the time of stress testing. Risk factors were evaluated in a summative fashion using multivariate regression adjusting for age and known coronary artery disease. The model was tested for goodness of fit and collinearity and the c statistic was calculated using the receiver operating curve. A total of 4026 subjects were included for analysis of which 22% had known CAD. The rates of positive outcome were 89 (12.0%), 95 (12.6%), and 343 (16.9%) for the OU, outpatients, and hospitalized patients respectively. While the odds of a positive test outcome increased for additional cardiac risk factors, ROC curve analysis indicates that simply adding the number of risk factors does not add significant diagnostic value. Hospitalized patients were more likely to have a positive stress test, OR 1.41 (1.10 - 1.81). Our study does not support basing the decision to perform a stress test on the number of cardiac risk factors.

Prediction of prostate cancer in unscreened men: external validation of a risk calculator.

PubMed

van Vugt, Heidi A; Roobol, Monique J; Kranse, Ries; Määttänen, Liisa; Finne, Patrik; Hugosson, Jonas; Bangma, Chris H; Schröder, Fritz H; Steyerberg, Ewout W

2011-04-01

Prediction models need external validation to assess their value beyond the setting where the model was derived from. To assess the external validity of the European Randomized study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC) risk calculator (www.prostatecancer-riskcalculator.com) for the probability of having a positive prostate biopsy (P(posb)). The ERSPC risk calculator was based on data of the initial screening round of the ERSPC section Rotterdam and validated in 1825 and 531 men biopsied at the initial screening round in the Finnish and Swedish sections of the ERSPC respectively. P(posb) was calculated using serum prostate specific antigen (PSA), outcome of digital rectal examination (DRE), transrectal ultrasound and ultrasound assessed prostate volume. The external validity was assessed for the presence of cancer at biopsy by calibration (agreement between observed and predicted outcomes), discrimination (separation of those with and without cancer), and decision curves (for clinical usefulness). Prostate cancer was detected in 469 men (26%) of the Finnish cohort and in 124 men (23%) of the Swedish cohort. Systematic miscalibration was present in both cohorts (mean predicted probability 34% versus 26% observed, and 29% versus 23% observed, both p<0.001). The areas under the curves were 0.76 and 0.78, and substantially lower for the model with PSA only (0.64 and 0.68 respectively). The model proved clinically useful for any decision threshold compared with a model with PSA only, PSA and DRE, or biopsying all men. A limitation is that the model is based on sextant biopsies results. The ERSPC risk calculator discriminated well between those with and without prostate cancer among initially screened men, but overestimated the risk of a positive biopsy. Further research is necessary to assess the performance and applicability of the ERSPC risk calculator when a clinical setting is considered rather than a screening setting. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights

Computer-based malnutrition risk calculation may enhance the ability to identify pediatric patients at malnutrition-related risk for unfavorable outcome.

PubMed

Karagiozoglou-Lampoudi, Thomais; Daskalou, Efstratia; Lampoudis, Dimitrios; Apostolou, Aggeliki; Agakidis, Charalampos

2015-05-01

The study aimed to test the hypothesis that computer-based calculation of malnutrition risk may enhance the ability to identify pediatric patients at malnutrition-related risk for an unfavorable outcome. The Pediatric Digital Scaled MAlnutrition Risk screening Tool (PeDiSMART), incorporating the World Health Organization (WHO) growth reference data and malnutrition-related parameters, was used. This was a prospective cohort study of 500 pediatric patients aged 1 month to 17 years. Upon admission, the PeDiSMART score was calculated and anthropometry was performed. Pediatric Yorkhill Malnutrition Score (PYMS), Screening Tool Risk on Nutritional Status and Growth (STRONGkids), and Screening Tool for the Assessment of Malnutrition in Pediatrics (STAMP) malnutrition screening tools were also applied. PeDiSMART's association with the clinical outcome measures (weight loss/nutrition support and hospitalization duration) was assessed and compared with the other screening tools. The PeDiSMART score was inversely correlated with anthropometry and bioelectrical impedance phase angle (BIA PhA). The score's grading scale was based on BIA Pha quartiles. Weight loss/nutrition support during hospitalization was significantly independently associated with the malnutrition risk group allocation on admission, after controlling for anthropometric parameters and age. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed a sensitivity of 87% and a specificity of 75% and a significant area under the curve, which differed significantly from that of STRONGkids and STAMP. In the subgroups of patients with PeDiSMART-based risk allocation different from that based on the other tools, PeDiSMART allocation was more closely related to outcome measures. PeDiSMART, applicable to the full age range of patients hospitalized in pediatric departments, graded according to BIA PhA, and embeddable in medical electronic records, enhances efficacy and reproducibility in identifying pediatric patients at

Introducing conjoint analysis method into delayed lotteries studies: its validity and time stability are higher than in adjusting.

PubMed

Białek, Michał; Markiewicz, Łukasz; Sawicki, Przemysław

2015-01-01

The delayed lotteries are much more common in everyday life than are pure lotteries. Usually, we need to wait to find out the outcome of the risky decision (e.g., investing in a stock market, engaging in a relationship). However, most research has studied the time discounting and probability discounting in isolation using the methodologies designed specifically to track changes in one parameter. Most commonly used method is adjusting, but its reported validity and time stability in research on discounting are suboptimal. The goal of this study was to introduce the novel method for analyzing delayed lotteries-conjoint analysis-which hypothetically is more suitable for analyzing individual preferences in this area. A set of two studies compared the conjoint analysis with adjusting. The results suggest that individual parameters of discounting strength estimated with conjoint have higher predictive value (Study 1 and 2), and they are more stable over time (Study 2) compared to adjusting. We discuss these findings, despite the exploratory character of reported studies, by suggesting that future research on delayed lotteries should be cross-validated using both methods.

Introducing conjoint analysis method into delayed lotteries studies: its validity and time stability are higher than in adjusting

PubMed Central

Białek, Michał; Markiewicz, Łukasz; Sawicki, Przemysław

2015-01-01

The delayed lotteries are much more common in everyday life than are pure lotteries. Usually, we need to wait to find out the outcome of the risky decision (e.g., investing in a stock market, engaging in a relationship). However, most research has studied the time discounting and probability discounting in isolation using the methodologies designed specifically to track changes in one parameter. Most commonly used method is adjusting, but its reported validity and time stability in research on discounting are suboptimal. The goal of this study was to introduce the novel method for analyzing delayed lotteries—conjoint analysis—which hypothetically is more suitable for analyzing individual preferences in this area. A set of two studies compared the conjoint analysis with adjusting. The results suggest that individual parameters of discounting strength estimated with conjoint have higher predictive value (Study 1 and 2), and they are more stable over time (Study 2) compared to adjusting. We discuss these findings, despite the exploratory character of reported studies, by suggesting that future research on delayed lotteries should be cross-validated using both methods. PMID:25674069

Risk-adjusted econometric model to estimate postoperative costs: an additional instrument for monitoring performance after major lung resection.

PubMed

Brunelli, Alessandro; Salati, Michele; Refai, Majed; Xiumé, Francesco; Rocco, Gaetano; Sabbatini, Armando

2007-09-01

The objectives of this study were to develop a risk-adjusted model to estimate individual postoperative costs after major lung resection and to use it for internal economic audit. Variable and fixed hospital costs were collected for 679 consecutive patients who underwent major lung resection from January 2000 through October 2006 at our unit. Several preoperative variables were used to develop a risk-adjusted econometric model from all patients operated on during the period 2000 through 2003 by a stepwise multiple regression analysis (validated by bootstrap). The model was then used to estimate the postoperative costs in the patients operated on during the 3 subsequent periods (years 2004, 2005, and 2006). Observed and predicted costs were then compared within each period by the Wilcoxon signed rank test. Multiple regression and bootstrap analysis yielded the following model predicting postoperative cost: 11,078 + 1340.3X (age > 70 years) + 1927.8X cardiac comorbidity - 95X ppoFEV1%. No differences between predicted and observed costs were noted in the first 2 periods analyzed (year 2004, $6188.40 vs $6241.40, P = .3; year 2005, $6308.60 vs $6483.60, P = .4), whereas in the most recent period (2006) observed costs were significantly lower than the predicted ones ($3457.30 vs $6162.70, P < .0001). Greater precision in predicting outcome and costs after therapy may assist clinicians in the optimization of clinical pathways and allocation of resources. Our economic model may be used as a methodologic template for economic audit in our specialty and complement more traditional outcome measures in the assessment of performance.

Outcomes of deliveries by family physicians or obstetricians: a population-based cohort study using an instrumental variable

PubMed Central

Aubrey-Bassler, Kris; Cullen, Richard M.; Simms, Alvin; Asghari, Shabnam; Crane, Joan; Wang, Peizhong Peter; Godwin, Marshall

2015-01-01

Background: Previous research has suggested that obstetric outcomes are similar for deliveries by family physicians and obstetricians, but many of these studies were small, and none of them adjusted for unmeasured selection bias. We compared obstetric outcomes between these provider types using an econometric method designed to adjust for unobserved confounding. Methods: We performed a retrospective population-based cohort study of all Canadian (except Quebec) hospital births with delivery by family physicians and obstetricians at more than 20 weeks gestational age, with birth weight greater than 500 g, between Apr. 1, 2006, and Mar. 31, 2009. The primary outcomes were the relative risks of in-hospital perinatal death and a composite of maternal mortality and major morbidity assessed with multivariable logistic regression and instrumental variable–adjusted multivariable regression. Results: After exclusions, there were 3600 perinatal deaths and 14 394 cases of maternal morbidity among 799 823 infants and 793 053 mothers at 390 hospitals. For deliveries by family physicians v. obstetricians, the relative risk of perinatal mortality was 0.98 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.85–1.14) and of maternal morbidity was 0.81 (95% CI 0.70–0.94) according to logistic regression. The respective relative risks were 0.97 (95% CI 0.58–1.64) and 1.13 (95% CI 0.65–1.95) according to instrumental variable methods. Interpretation: After adjusting for both observed and unobserved confounders, we found a similar risk of perinatal mortality and adverse maternal outcome for obstetric deliveries by family physicians and obstetricians. Whether there are differences between these groups for other outcomes remains to be seen. PMID:26303244

48 CFR 215.404-71-3 - Contract type risk and working capital adjustment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... provisions for performance-based payments, do not compute a working capital adjustment. (d) Evaluation... working capital adjustment. 215.404-71-3 Section 215.404-71-3 Federal Acquisition Regulations System... CONTRACTING BY NEGOTIATION Contract Pricing 215.404-71-3 Contract type risk and working capital adjustment. (a...

The Impact of Children's Social Adjustment on Academic Outcomes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

DeRosier, Melissa E.; Lloyd, Stacey W.

2011-01-01

This study tested whether social adjustment added to the prediction of academic outcomes above and beyond prior academic functioning. Researchers collected school records and peer-, teacher-, and self-report measures for 1,255 third-grade children in the fall and spring of the school year. Measures of social adjustment included social acceptance…

Managing loss adjustment expenses: strategies for health care risk managers.

PubMed

Quinley, K M

1991-01-01

Like most businesses, adjusting companies are not charitable organizations. They are entitled to a reasonable profit, which the risk manager should not begrudge. As a buyer of adjusting services, a risk manager with an inordinate obsession with slashing adjusting bills can destroy the goal of high-quality service. It is best for risk managers to pick and choose the areas for cutting adjusting expenses. To an extent, health care risk managers should view payment of high-quality adjusting services as an investment, with the payback being money saved by fighting fraudulent, exaggerated, and questionable claims.

Surgeon length of service and risk-adjusted outcomes: linked observational analysis of the UK National Adult Cardiac Surgery Audit Registry and General Medical Council Register.

PubMed

Hickey, Graeme L; Grant, Stuart W; Freemantle, Nick; Cunningham, David; Munsch, Christopher M; Livesey, Steven A; Roxburgh, James; Buchan, Iain; Bridgewater, Ben

2014-09-01

To explore the relationship between in-hospital mortality following adult cardiac surgery and the time since primary clinical qualification for the responsible consultant cardiac surgeon (a proxy for experience). Retrospective analysis of prospectively collected national registry data over a 10-year period using mixed-effects multiple logistic regression modelling. Surgeon experience was defined as the time between the date of surgery and award of primary clinical qualification. UK National Health Service hospitals performing cardiac surgery between January 2003 and December 2012. All patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafts and/or valve surgery under the care of a consultant cardiac surgeon. All-cause in-hospital mortality. A total of 292,973 operations performed by 273 consultant surgeons (with lengths of service from 11.2 to 42.0 years) were included. Crude mortality increased approximately linearly until 33 years service, before decreasing. After adjusting for case-mix and year of surgery, there remained a statistically significant (p=0.002) association between length of service and in-hospital mortality (odds ratio 1.013; 95% CI 1.005-1.021 for each year of 'experience'). Consultant cardiac surgeons take on increasingly complex surgery as they gain experience. With this progression, the incidence of adverse outcomes is expected to increase, as is demonstrated in this study. After adjusting for case-mix using the EuroSCORE, we observed an increased risk of mortality in patients operated on by longer serving surgeons. This finding may reflect under-adjustment for risk, unmeasured confounding or a real association. Further research into outcomes over the time course of surgeon's careers is required. © The Royal Society of Medicine.

Poor adjustment to college life mediates the relationship between drinking motives and alcohol consequences: a look at college adjustment, drinking motives, and drinking outcomes.

PubMed

LaBrie, Joseph W; Ehret, Phillip J; Hummer, Justin F; Prenovost, Katherine

2012-04-01

The current study examined whether the relationship between drinking motives and alcohol-related outcomes was mediated by college adjustment. Participants (N=253) completed an online survey that assessed drinking motives, degree of both positive and negative college adjustment, typical weekly drinking, and past month negative alcohol-related consequences. Structural equation modeling examined negative alcohol consequences as a function of college adjustment, drinking motives, and weekly drinking behavior in college students. Negative college adjustment mediated the relationship between coping drinking motives and drinking consequences. Positive college adjustment was not related to alcohol consumption or consequences. Positive reinforcement drinking motives (i.e. social and enhancement) not only directly predicted consequences, but were partially mediated by weekly drinking and degree of negative college adjustment. Gender specific models revealed that males exhibited more variability in drinking and their positive reinforcement drinking motives were more strongly associated with weekly drinking. Uniquely for females, coping motives were directly and indirectly (via negative adjustment) related to consequences. These findings suggest that interventions which seek to decrease alcohol-related risk may wish to incorporate discussions about strategies for decreasing stress and increasing other factors associated with better college adjustment. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Process monitoring in intensive care with the use of cumulative expected minus observed mortality and risk-adjusted P charts.

PubMed

Cockings, Jerome G L; Cook, David A; Iqbal, Rehana K

2006-02-01

A health care system is a complex adaptive system. The effect of a single intervention, incorporated into a complex clinical environment, may be different from that expected. A national database such as the Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre (ICNARC) Case Mix Programme in the UK represents a centralised monitoring, surveillance and reporting system for retrospective quality and comparative audit. This can be supplemented with real-time process monitoring at a local level for continuous process improvement, allowing early detection of the impact of both unplanned and deliberately imposed changes in the clinical environment. Demographic and UK Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) data were prospectively collected on all patients admitted to a UK regional hospital between 1 January 2003 and 30 June 2004 in accordance with the ICNARC Case Mix Programme. We present a cumulative expected minus observed (E-O) plot and the risk-adjusted p chart as methods of continuous process monitoring. We describe the construction and interpretation of these charts and show how they can be used to detect planned or unplanned organisational process changes affecting mortality outcomes. Five hundred and eighty-nine adult patients were included. The overall death rate was 0.78 of predicted. Calibration showed excess survival in ranges above 30% risk of death. The E-O plot confirmed a survival above that predicted. Small transient variations were seen in the slope that could represent random effects, or real but transient changes in the quality of care. The risk-adjusted p chart showed several observations below the 2 SD control limits of the expected mortality rate. These plots provide rapid analysis of risk-adjusted performance suitable for local application and interpretation. The E-O chart provided rapid easily visible feedback of changes in risk-adjusted mortality, while the risk-adjusted p chart allowed statistical evaluation. Local analysis of

Mortality determinants and prediction of outcome in high risk newborns.

PubMed

Dalvi, R; Dalvi, B V; Birewar, N; Chari, G; Fernandez, A R

1990-06-01

The aim of this study was to determine independent patient-related predictors of mortality in high risk newborns admitted at our centre. The study population comprised 100 consecutive newborns each, from the premature unit (PU) and sick baby care unit (SBCU), respectively. Thirteen high risk factors (variables) for each of the two units, were entered into a multivariate regression analysis. Variables with independent predictive value for poor outcome (i.e., death) in PU were, weight less than 1 kg, hyaline membrane disease, neurologic problems, and intravenous therapy. High risk factors in SBCU included, blood gas abnormality, bleeding phenomena, recurrent convulsions, apnea, and congenital anomalies. Identification of these factors guided us in defining priority areas for improvement in our system of neonatal care. Also, based on these variables a simple predictive score for outcome was constructed. The prediction equation and the score were cross-validated by applying them to a 'test-set' of 100 newborns each for PU and SBCU. Results showed a comparable sensitivity, specificity and error rate.

A risk-model for hospital mortality among patients with severe sepsis or septic shock based on German national administrative claims data

PubMed Central

Fleischmann-Struzek, Carolin; Rüddel, Hendrik; Reinhart, Konrad; Thomas-Rüddel, Daniel O.

2018-01-01

Background Sepsis is a major cause of preventable deaths in hospitals. Feasible and valid methods for comparing quality of sepsis care between hospitals are needed. The aim of this study was to develop a risk-adjustment model suitable for comparing sepsis-related mortality between German hospitals. Methods We developed a risk-model using national German claims data. Since these data are available with a time-lag of 1.5 years only, the stability of the model across time was investigated. The model was derived from inpatient cases with severe sepsis or septic shock treated in 2013 using logistic regression with backward selection and generalized estimating equations to correct for clustering. It was validated among cases treated in 2015. Finally, the model development was repeated in 2015. To investigate secular changes, the risk-adjusted trajectory of mortality across the years 2010–2015 was analyzed. Results The 2013 deviation sample consisted of 113,750 cases; the 2015 validation sample consisted of 134,851 cases. The model developed in 2013 showed good validity regarding discrimination (AUC = 0.74), calibration (observed mortality in 1st and 10th risk-decile: 11%-78%), and fit (R2 = 0.16). Validity remained stable when the model was applied to 2015 (AUC = 0.74, 1st and 10th risk-decile: 10%-77%, R2 = 0.17). There was no indication of overfitting of the model. The final model developed in year 2015 contained 40 risk-factors. Between 2010 and 2015 hospital mortality in sepsis decreased from 48% to 42%. Adjusted for risk-factors the trajectory of decrease was still significant. Conclusions The risk-model shows good predictive validity and stability across time. The model is suitable to be used as an external algorithm for comparing risk-adjusted sepsis mortality among German hospitals or regions based on administrative claims data, but secular changes need to be taken into account when interpreting risk-adjusted mortality. PMID:29558486

A risk-model for hospital mortality among patients with severe sepsis or septic shock based on German national administrative claims data.

PubMed

Schwarzkopf, Daniel; Fleischmann-Struzek, Carolin; Rüddel, Hendrik; Reinhart, Konrad; Thomas-Rüddel, Daniel O

2018-01-01

Sepsis is a major cause of preventable deaths in hospitals. Feasible and valid methods for comparing quality of sepsis care between hospitals are needed. The aim of this study was to develop a risk-adjustment model suitable for comparing sepsis-related mortality between German hospitals. We developed a risk-model using national German claims data. Since these data are available with a time-lag of 1.5 years only, the stability of the model across time was investigated. The model was derived from inpatient cases with severe sepsis or septic shock treated in 2013 using logistic regression with backward selection and generalized estimating equations to correct for clustering. It was validated among cases treated in 2015. Finally, the model development was repeated in 2015. To investigate secular changes, the risk-adjusted trajectory of mortality across the years 2010-2015 was analyzed. The 2013 deviation sample consisted of 113,750 cases; the 2015 validation sample consisted of 134,851 cases. The model developed in 2013 showed good validity regarding discrimination (AUC = 0.74), calibration (observed mortality in 1st and 10th risk-decile: 11%-78%), and fit (R2 = 0.16). Validity remained stable when the model was applied to 2015 (AUC = 0.74, 1st and 10th risk-decile: 10%-77%, R2 = 0.17). There was no indication of overfitting of the model. The final model developed in year 2015 contained 40 risk-factors. Between 2010 and 2015 hospital mortality in sepsis decreased from 48% to 42%. Adjusted for risk-factors the trajectory of decrease was still significant. The risk-model shows good predictive validity and stability across time. The model is suitable to be used as an external algorithm for comparing risk-adjusted sepsis mortality among German hospitals or regions based on administrative claims data, but secular changes need to be taken into account when interpreting risk-adjusted mortality.

Psychosocial Outcomes in Long-Term Cochlear Implant Users.

PubMed

Castellanos, Irina; Kronenberger, William G; Pisoni, David B

The objectives of this study were to investigate psychosocial outcomes in a sample of prelingually deaf, early-implanted children, adolescents, and young adults who are long-term cochlear implant (CI) users and to examine the extent to which language and executive functioning predict psychosocial outcomes. Psychosocial outcomes were measured using two well-validated, parent-completed checklists: the Behavior Assessment System for Children and the Conduct Hyperactive Attention Problem Oppositional Symptom. Neurocognitive skills were measured using gold standard, performance-based assessments of language and executive functioning. CI users were at greater risk for clinically significant deficits in areas related to attention, oppositional behavior, hyperactivity-impulsivity, and social-adaptive skills compared with their normal-hearing peers, although the majority of CI users scored within average ranges relative to Behavior Assessment System for Children norms. Regression analyses revealed that language, visual-spatial working memory, and inhibition-concentration skills predicted psychosocial outcomes. Findings suggest that underlying delays and deficits in language and executive functioning may place some CI users at a risk for difficulties in psychosocial adjustment.

Risk-adjusted sequential probability ratio tests: applications to Bristol, Shipman and adult cardiac surgery.

PubMed

Spiegelhalter, David; Grigg, Olivia; Kinsman, Robin; Treasure, Tom

2003-02-01

To investigate the use of the risk-adjusted sequential probability ratio test in monitoring the cumulative occurrence of adverse clinical outcomes. Retrospective analysis of three longitudinal datasets. Patients aged 65 years and over under the care of Harold Shipman between 1979 and 1997, patients under 1 year of age undergoing paediatric heart surgery in Bristol Royal Infirmary between 1984 and 1995, adult patients receiving cardiac surgery from a team of cardiac surgeons in London,UK. Annual and 30-day mortality rates. Using reasonable boundaries, the procedure could have indicated an 'alarm' in Bristol after publication of the 1991 Cardiac Surgical Register, and in 1985 or 1997 for Harold Shipman depending on the data source and the comparator. The cardiac surgeons showed no significant deviation from expected performance. The risk-adjusted sequential probability test is simple to implement, can be applied in a variety of contexts, and might have been useful to detect specific instances of past divergent performance. The use of this and related techniques deserves further attention in the context of prospectively monitoring adverse clinical outcomes.

45 CFR 153.320 - Federally certified risk adjustment methodology.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 1 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Federally certified risk adjustment methodology. 153.320 Section 153.320 Public Welfare DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES REQUIREMENTS RELATING TO HEALTH CARE ACCESS STANDARDS RELATED TO REINSURANCE, RISK CORRIDORS, AND RISK ADJUSTMENT UNDER THE...

45 CFR 153.340 - Data collection under risk adjustment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 1 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Data collection under risk adjustment. 153.340 Section 153.340 Public Welfare DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES REQUIREMENTS RELATING TO HEALTH CARE ACCESS STANDARDS RELATED TO REINSURANCE, RISK CORRIDORS, AND RISK ADJUSTMENT UNDER THE AFFORDABLE...

45 CFR 153.330 - State alternate risk adjustment methodology.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 1 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false State alternate risk adjustment methodology. 153.330 Section 153.330 Public Welfare DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES REQUIREMENTS RELATING TO HEALTH CARE ACCESS STANDARDS RELATED TO REINSURANCE, RISK CORRIDORS, AND RISK ADJUSTMENT UNDER THE...

45 CFR 153.330 - State alternate risk adjustment methodology.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 1 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false State alternate risk adjustment methodology. 153.330 Section 153.330 Public Welfare Department of Health and Human Services REQUIREMENTS RELATING TO HEALTH CARE ACCESS STANDARDS RELATED TO REINSURANCE, RISK CORRIDORS, AND RISK ADJUSTMENT UNDER THE...

45 CFR 153.320 - Federally certified risk adjustment methodology.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 1 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Federally certified risk adjustment methodology. 153.320 Section 153.320 Public Welfare Department of Health and Human Services REQUIREMENTS RELATING TO HEALTH CARE ACCESS STANDARDS RELATED TO REINSURANCE, RISK CORRIDORS, AND RISK ADJUSTMENT UNDER THE...

45 CFR 153.620 - Compliance with risk adjustment standards.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 1 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Compliance with risk adjustment standards. 153.620 Section 153.620 Public Welfare Department of Health and Human Services REQUIREMENTS RELATING TO HEALTH CARE ACCESS STANDARDS RELATED TO REINSURANCE, RISK CORRIDORS, AND RISK ADJUSTMENT UNDER THE AFFORDABLE...

45 CFR 153.320 - Federally certified risk adjustment methodology.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 1 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Federally certified risk adjustment methodology. 153.320 Section 153.320 Public Welfare DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES REQUIREMENTS RELATING TO HEALTH CARE ACCESS STANDARDS RELATED TO REINSURANCE, RISK CORRIDORS, AND RISK ADJUSTMENT UNDER THE...

45 CFR 153.330 - State alternate risk adjustment methodology.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 1 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false State alternate risk adjustment methodology. 153.330 Section 153.330 Public Welfare DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES REQUIREMENTS RELATING TO HEALTH CARE ACCESS STANDARDS RELATED TO REINSURANCE, RISK CORRIDORS, AND RISK ADJUSTMENT UNDER THE...

Population-based study of the association of variants in mismatch repair genes with prostate cancer risk and outcomes

PubMed Central

Langeberg, Wendy J.; Kwon, Erika M.; Koopmeiners, Joseph S.; Ostrander, Elaine A.; Stanford, Janet L.

2009-01-01

Background Mismatch repair (MMR) gene activity may be associated with prostate cancer (PC) risk and outcomes. This study evaluated whether single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in key MMR genes are related to PC outcomes. Methods Data from two population-based case-control studies of PC among Caucasian and African-American men residing in King County, Washington were combined for this analysis. Cases (n=1,458) were diagnosed with PC in 1993–96 or 2002–05 and identified via the Seattle-Puget Sound SEER cancer registry. Controls (n=1,351) were age-matched to cases and identified via random digit dialing. Logistic regression was used to assess the relationship between haplotype-tagging SNPs and PC risk and disease aggressiveness. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to assess the relationship between SNPs and PC recurrence and PC-specific death. Results Nineteen SNPs were evaluated in the key MMR genes: five in MLH1, 10 in MSH2, and 4 in PMS2. Among Caucasian men, one SNP in MLH1 (rs9852810) was associated with: overall PC risk (OR=1.21, 95% CI=1.02, 1.44; p=0.03), more aggressive PC (OR=1.49, 95% CI=1.15–1.91; p<0.01), and PC recurrence (HR=1.83, 95% CI=1.18, 2.86; p<0.01), but not PC-specific mortality. A non-synonymous coding SNP in MLH1, rs1799977 (I219V), was also found to be associated with more aggressive disease. These results did not remain significant after adjusting for multiple comparisons. Conclusion This population-based case-control study provides evidence for a possible association with a gene variant in MLH1 in relation to risk of overall PC, more aggressive disease, and PC recurrence, which warrants replication. PMID:20056646

Prospective Quality of Life Outcomes for Low-Risk Prostate Cancer: Active Surveillance versus Radical Prostatectomy

PubMed Central

Jeldres, Claudio; Cullen, Jennifer; Hurwitz, Lauren M.; Wolff, Erika M.; Levie, Katherine; Odem-Davis, Katherine; Johnston, Richard B.; Pham, Khanh N.; Rosner, Inger L; Brand, Timothy C.; L’Esperance, James O.; Sterbis, Joseph R.; Etzioni, Ruth B.; Porter, Christopher R.

2015-01-01

Background For low-risk prostate cancer (PCa), active surveillance (AS) may confer comparable oncological outcomes to radical prostatectomy (RP). Health-related quality of life (HRQoL) outcomes are important to consider, yet few studies have examined HRQoL for patients managed with AS. This study compared longitudinal HRQoL in a prospective, racially diverse, and contemporary cohort of patients who underwent RP or AS for low-risk PCa. Methods Beginning in 2007, HRQoL data from validated questionnaires (EPIC and SF-36) were collected by the Center for Prostate Disease Research in a multi-center national database. Patients aged ≤75 that were diagnosed with low-risk PCa and elected RP or AS for initial disease management were followed for three years. Mean scores were estimated using generalized estimating equations, adjusting for baseline HRQoL, demographic and clinical patient characteristics. Results Of the patients with low-risk PCa, 228 underwent RP and 77 underwent AS. Multivariable analysis revealed that RP patients had significantly worse sexual function, sexual bother, and urinary function at all time points compared to patients on AS. Differences in mental health between groups were below the threshold for clinical significance at one year. Conclusions This study found no differences in mental health outcomes but worse urinary and sexual HRQoL for RP patients compared to AS patients for up to three years. These data offer support for management of low risk PCa with AS as a means for postponing the morbidity associated with RP without concomitant mental health declines. PMID:25845467

Interpersonal ambivalence, perceived relationship adjustment, and conjugal loss.

PubMed

Bonanno, G A; Notarius, C I; Gunzerath, L; Keltner, D; Horowitz, M J

1998-12-01

Ambivalence is widely assumed to prolong grief. To examine this hypothesis, the authors developed a measure of ambivalence based on an algorithmic combination of separate positive and negative evaluations of one's spouse. Preliminary construct validity was evidenced in relation to emotional difficulties and to facial expressions of emotion. Bereaved participants, relative to a nonbereaved comparison sample, recollected their relationships as better adjusted but were more ambivalent. Ambivalence about spouses was generally associated with increased distress and poorer perceived health but did not predict long-term grief outcome once initial outcome was controlled. In contrast, initial grief and distress predicted increased ambivalence and decreased Dyadic Adjustment Scale scores at 14 months postloss, regardless of initial scores on these measures. Limitations and implications of the findings are discussed.

Slow Gait Speed and Risk of Long-Term Nursing Home Residence in Older Women, Adjusting for Competing Risk of Mortality: Results from the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures.

PubMed

Lyons, Jennifer G; Ensrud, Kristine E; Schousboe, John T; McCulloch, Charles E; Taylor, Brent C; Heeren, Timothy C; Stuver, Sherri O; Fredman, Lisa

2016-12-01

To determine whether slow gait speed increases the risk of costly long-term nursing home residence when accounting for death as a competing risk remains unknown. Longitudinal cohort study using proportional hazards models to predict long-term nursing home residence and subdistribution models with death as a competing risk. Community-based prospective cohort study. Older women (mean age 76.3) participating in the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures who were also enrolled in Medicare fee-for-service plans (N = 3,755). Gait speed was measured on a straight 6-m course and averaged over two trials. Long-term nursing home residence was defined using a validated algorithm based on Medicare Part B claims for nursing home-related care. Participants were followed until long-term nursing home residence, disenrollment from Medicare plan, death, or December 31, 2010. Over the follow-up period (median 11 years), 881 participants (23%) experienced long-term nursing home residence, and 1,013 (27%) died before experiencing this outcome. Slow walkers (55% of participants with gait speed <1 m/s) were significantly more likely than fast walkers to reside in a nursing home long-term (adjusted hazards ratio (aHR) = 1.79, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.54-2.09). Associations were attenuated in subdistribution models (aHR = 1.52, 95% CI = 1.30-1.77) but remained statistically significant. Older community-dwelling women with slow gait speed are more likely to experience long-term nursing home residence, as well as mortality without long-term residence. Ignoring the competing mortality risk may overestimate long-term care needs and costs. © 2016, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2016, The American Geriatrics Society.

Service profiling and outcomes benchmarking using the CORE-OM: toward practice-based evidence in the psychological therapies. Clinical Outcomes in Routine Evaluation-Outcome Measures.

PubMed

Barkham, M; Margison, F; Leach, C; Lucock, M; Mellor-Clark, J; Evans, C; Benson, L; Connell, J; Audin, K; McGrath, G

2001-04-01

To complement the evidence-based practice paradigm, the authors argued for a core outcome measure to provide practice-based evidence for the psychological therapies. Utility requires instruments that are acceptable scientifically, as well as to service users, and a coordinated implementation of the measure at a national level. The development of the Clinical Outcomes in Routine Evaluation-Outcome Measure (CORE-OM) is summarized. Data are presented across 39 secondary-care services (n = 2,710) and within an intensively evaluated single service (n = 1,455). Results suggest that the CORE-OM is a valid and reliable measure for multiple settings and is acceptable to users and clinicians as well as policy makers. Baseline data levels of patient presenting problem severity, including risk, are reported in addition to outcome benchmarks that use the concept of reliable and clinically significant change. Basic quality improvement in outcomes for a single service is considered.

Development, reliability, and validity of the Alberta Perinatal Stroke Project Parental Outcome Measure.

PubMed

Bemister, Taryn B; Brooks, Brian L; Kirton, Adam

2014-07-01

Perinatal stroke is a leading cause of cerebral palsy and lifelong disability, although parent and family outcomes have not yet been studied in this specific population. The Alberta Perinatal Stroke Project Parental Outcome Measure was developed as a 26-item questionnaire on the impact of perinatal stroke on parents and families. The items were derived from expert opinion and scientific literature on issues salient to parents of children with perinatal stroke, including guilt and blame, which are not well captured in existing measures of family impact. Data were collected from 82 mothers and 28 fathers who completed the Parental Outcome Measure and related questionnaires (mean age, 39.5 years; mean child age, 7.4 years). Analyses examined the Parental Outcome Measure's internal consistency, test-retest reliability, validity, and factor structure. The Parental Outcome Measure demonstrated three unique theoretical constructs: Psychosocial Impact, Guilt, and Blame. The Parental Outcome Measure has excellent internal consistency (Cronbach α = 0.91) and very good test-retest reliability more than 2-5 weeks (r = 0.87). Regarding validity, the Parental Outcome Measure is sensitive to condition severity, accounts for additional variance in parent outcomes, and strongly correlates with measures of anxiety, depression, stress, quality of life, family functioning, and parent adjustment. The Parental Outcome Measure contributes to the literature as the first brief measure of family impact designed for parents of children with perinatal stroke. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Measuring violence risk and outcomes among Mexican American adolescent females.

PubMed

Cervantes, Richard C; Duenas, Norma; Valdez, Avelardo; Kaplan, Charles

2006-01-01

Central to the development of culturally competent violence prevention programs for Hispanic youth is the development of psychometrically sound violence risk and outcome measures for this population. A study was conducted to determine the psychometric properties of two commonly used violence measures, in this case for Mexican American adolescent females. The Conflict Tactics Scales (CTS2) and the Past Feelings and Acts of Violence Scale (PFAV) were analyzed to examine their interitem reliability, criterion validity, and discriminant validity. A sample of 150 low-risk and 150 high-risk adolescent females was studied. Discriminant validity was indicated by the perpetrator negotiation scale and by the victim psychological aggression and sexual coercion scales of the CTS2 and the PFAV. Analysis indicates that the CTS2 scales and the PFAV demonstrate adequate reliability, whereas strong criterion validity was evidenced by eight of the CTS2 scales and the PFAV.

Meningitis With a Negative Cerebrospinal Fluid Gram Stain in Adults: Risk Classification for an Adverse Clinical Outcome

PubMed Central

Khoury, Nabil T.; Hossain, Md Monir; Wootton, Susan H.; Salazar, Lucrecia; Hasbun, Rodrigo

2012-01-01

Objective To derive and validate a risk score for an adverse clinical outcome in adults with meningitis and a negative cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) Gram stain. Patients and Methods We conducted a retrospective study of 567 adults from Houston, Texas, with meningitis evaluated between January 1, 2005, and January 1, 2010. The patients were divided into derivation (N=292) and validation (N=275) cohorts. An adverse clinical outcome was defined as a Glasgow Outcome Scale score of 4 or less. Results Of the 567 patients, 62 (11%) had an adverse clinical outcome. A predictive model was created using 3 baseline variables that were independently associated with an adverse clinical outcome (P<.05): age greater than 60 years, abnormal findings on neurologic examination (altered mental status, focal neurologic deficits, or seizures), and CSF glucose level of less than 2.4975 mmol/L (to convert CSF glucose to mmol/L, multiply by 0.05551). The model classified patients into 2 categories of risk for an adverse clinical outcome—derivation sample: low risk, 0.6% and high risk, 32.8%; P<.001; and validation sample: low risk, 0.5% and high risk, 21.1%; P<.001. Conclusion Adults with meningitis and a negative CSF Gram stain can be accurately stratified for the risk of an adverse clinical outcome using clinical variables available at presentation. PMID:23218086

Development and validation of risk models to select ever-smokers for CT lung-cancer screening

PubMed Central

Katki, Hormuzd A.; Kovalchik, Stephanie A.; Berg, Christine D.; Cheung, Li C.; Chaturvedi, Anil K.

2016-01-01

Importance The US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) recommends computed-tomography (CT) lung-cancer screening for ever-smokers ages 55-80 years who smoked at least 30 pack-years with no more than 15 years since quitting. However, selecting ever-smokers for screening using individualized lung-cancer risk calculations may be more effective and efficient than current USPSTF recommendations. Objective Comparison of modeled outcomes from risk-based CT lung-screening strategies versus USPSTF recommendations. Design/Setting/Participants Empirical risk models for lung-cancer incidence and death in the absence of CT screening using data on ever-smokers from the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial (PLCO; 1993-2009) control group. Covariates included age, education, sex, race, smoking intensity/duration/quit-years, Body Mass Index, family history of lung-cancer, and self-reported emphysema. Model validation in the chest radiography groups of the PLCO and the National Lung Screening Trial (NLST; 2002-2009), with additional validation of the death model in the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS; 1997-2001), a representative sample of the US. Models applied to US ever-smokers ages 50-80 (NHIS 2010-2012) to estimate outcomes of risk-based selection for CT lung-screening, assuming screening for all ever-smokers yields the percent changes in lung-cancer detection and death observed in the NLST. Exposure Annual CT lung-screening for 3 years. Main Outcomes and Measures Model validity: calibration (number of model-predicted cases divided by number of observed cases (Estimated/Observed)) and discrimination (Area-Under-Curve (AUC)). Modeled screening outcomes: estimated number of screen-avertable lung-cancer deaths, estimated screening effectiveness (number needed to screen (NNS) to prevent 1 lung-cancer death). Results Lung-cancer incidence and death risk models were well-calibrated in PLCO and NLST. The lung-cancer death model calibrated and

Risks, Outcomes, and Evidence-based Interventions for Girls in the U.S. Juvenile Justice System

PubMed Central

Leve, Leslie D.; Chamberlain, Patricia; Kim, Hyoun K.

2015-01-01

The proportion of the juvenile justice population that is comprised of females is increasing, yet few evidence-based models have been evaluated and implemented with girls in the juvenile justice system. Although much is known about the risk and protective factors for girls who participate in serious delinquency, significant gaps in the research base hamper the development and implementation of theoretically based intervention approaches. In this review, we first summarize the extant empirical work about the predictors and sequelae of juvenile justice involvement for girls. Identified risk and protective factors that correspond to girls’ involvement in the juvenile justice system have been shown to largely parallel those of boys, although exposure rates and magnitudes of association sometimes differ by sex. Second, we summarize findings from empirically validated, evidence-based interventions for juvenile justice–involved youths that have been tested with girls. The interventions include Functional Family Therapy, Multisystemic Therapy, Multidimensional Family Therapy, and Treatment Foster Care Oregon (formerly known as Multidimensional Treatment Foster Care). We conclude that existing evidence-based practices appear to be effective for girls. However, few studies have been sufficiently designed to permit conclusions about whether sex-specific interventions would yield any better outcomes for girls than would interventions that already exist for both sexes and that have a strong base of evidence to support them. Third, we propose recommendations for feasible, cost-efficient next steps to advance the research and intervention agendas for this under-researched, under-served population of highly vulnerable youths. PMID:26119215

Using agent-based modeling to study multiple risk factors and multiple health outcomes at multiple levels.

PubMed

Yang, Yong

2017-11-01

Most health studies focus on one health outcome and examine the influence of one or multiple risk factors. However, in reality, various pathways, interactions, and associations exist not only between risk factors and health outcomes but also among the risk factors and among health outcomes. The advance of system science methods, Big Data, and accumulated knowledge allows us to examine how multiple risk factors influence multiple health outcomes at multiple levels (termed a 3M study). Using the study of neighborhood environment and health as an example, I elaborate on the significance of 3M studies. 3M studies may lead to a significantly deeper understanding of the dynamic interactions among risk factors and outcomes and could help us design better interventions that may be of particular relevance for upstream interventions. Agent-based modeling (ABM) is a promising method in the 3M study, although its potentials are far from being fully explored. Future challenges include the gap of epidemiologic knowledge and evidence, lack of empirical data sources, and the technical challenges of ABM. © 2017 New York Academy of Sciences.

Enhanced clinical pharmacy service targeting tools: risk-predictive algorithms.

PubMed

El Hajji, Feras W D; Scullin, Claire; Scott, Michael G; McElnay, James C

2015-04-01

This study aimed to determine the value of using a mix of clinical pharmacy data and routine hospital admission spell data in the development of predictive algorithms. Exploration of risk factors in hospitalized patients, together with the targeting strategies devised, will enable the prioritization of clinical pharmacy services to optimize patient outcomes. Predictive algorithms were developed using a number of detailed steps using a 75% sample of integrated medicines management (IMM) patients, and validated using the remaining 25%. IMM patients receive targeted clinical pharmacy input throughout their hospital stay. The algorithms were applied to the validation sample, and predicted risk probability was generated for each patient from the coefficients. Risk threshold for the algorithms were determined by identifying the cut-off points of risk scores at which the algorithm would have the highest discriminative performance. Clinical pharmacy staffing levels were obtained from the pharmacy department staffing database. Numbers of previous emergency admissions and admission medicines together with age-adjusted co-morbidity and diuretic receipt formed a 12-month post-discharge and/or readmission risk algorithm. Age-adjusted co-morbidity proved to be the best index to predict mortality. Increased numbers of clinical pharmacy staff at ward level was correlated with a reduction in risk-adjusted mortality index (RAMI). Algorithms created were valid in predicting risk of in-hospital and post-discharge mortality and risk of hospital readmission 3, 6 and 12 months post-discharge. The provision of ward-based clinical pharmacy services is a key component to reducing RAMI and enabling the full benefits of pharmacy input to patient care to be realized. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Risk of asthma and allergic outcomes in the offspring in relation to maternal food consumption during pregnancy: a Finnish birth cohort study.

PubMed

Erkkola, Maijaliisa; Nwaru, Bright I; Kaila, Minna; Kronberg-Kippilä, Carina; Ilonen, Jorma; Simell, Olli; Veijola, Riitta; Knip, Mikael; Virtanen, Suvi M

2012-03-01

Epidemiological and immunological studies suggest that maternal diet during pregnancy might affect the development of allergic diseases in the offspring. The authors set out to study the effect of maternal food consumption during pregnancy on the emergence of the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (ISAAC)-based allergic outcomes: asthma, allergic rhinitis, and wheeze by the 5 yr of age. Data from 2441 children at 5 yr of age were analyzed within the Finnish Type 1 Diabetes Prediction and Prevention (DIPP) Nutrition Study, a population-based birth cohort study. Maternal diet was assessed with a validated food frequency questionnaire. In multiple regression models adjusted for known confounders, low maternal consumption of leafy vegetables (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 1.55; 95% CI: 1.21, 1.98), malaceous fruits (aOR: 1.45; 95% CI: 1.15, 1.84), and chocolate (aOR: 1.36; 95% CI: 1.09, 1.70) were positively associated with the risk of wheeze in children. High maternal consumption of fruit and berry juices was positively associated with the risk of allergic rhinitis (aOR: 1.40; 95% CI: 1.03, 1.90) in children. No associations were observed between maternal food consumption and asthma. Development of allergic diseases in preschool children may be influenced by intrauterine exposure to maternal diet. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

Risk Adjustment for a Children's Capitation Rate

PubMed Central

Newhouse, Joseph P.; Sloss, Elizabeth M.; Manning, Willard G.; Keeler, Emmett B.

1993-01-01

Few capitation arrangements vary premiums by a child's health characteristics, yielding an incentive to discriminate against children with predictably high expenditures from chronic diseases. In this article, we explore risk adjusters for the 35 percent of the variance in annual outpatient expenditure we find to be potentially predictable. Demographic factors such as age and gender only explain 5 percent of such variance; health status measures explain 25 percent, prior use and health status measures together explain 65 to 70 percent. The profit from risk selection falls less than proportionately with improved ability to adjust for risk. Partial capitation rates may be necessary to mitigate skimming and dumping. PMID:10133708

Risk adjustment for a children's capitation rate.

PubMed

Newhouse, J P; Sloss, E M; Manning, W G; Keeler, E B

1993-01-01

Few capitation arrangements vary premiums by a child's health characteristics, yielding an incentive to discriminate against children with predictably high expenditures from chronic diseases. In this article, we explore risk adjusters for the 35 percent of the variance in annual out-patient expenditure we find to be potentially predictable. Demographic factors such as age and gender only explain 5 percent of such variance; health status measures explain 25 percent, prior use and health status measures together explain 65 to 70 percent. The profit from risk selection falls less than proportionately with improved ability to adjust for risk. Partial capitation rates may be necessary to mitigate skimming and dumping.

45 CFR 153.340 - Data collection under risk adjustment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... program, the State may vary the amount and type of data collected, but the State must collect or calculate... 45 Public Welfare 1 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Data collection under risk adjustment. 153.340... CARE ACT State Standards Related to the Risk Adjustment Program § 153.340 Data collection under risk...

Projecting School Psychology Staffing Needs Using a Risk-Adjusted Model.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stellwagen, Kurt

A model is proposed to project optimal school psychology service ratios based upon the percentages of at risk students enrolled within a given school population. Using the standard 1:1,000 service ratio advocated by The National Association of School Psychologists (NASP) as a starting point, ratios are then adjusted based upon the size of three…

Needs for further improvement: risk adjustment in the German health insurance system.

PubMed

Buchner, Florian; Wasem, Jürgen

2003-07-01

The German risk adjustment mechanism is used only within the public system. It was introduced in two steps, 1994 and 1995. Because of the income-related contribution, which the insured pay directly to their sickness fund, income of the insured is equalized by the mechanism and causes the biggest part of the payments among the sickness funds. On the expenditure side age, gender, disability and entitlement for sickness allowances are used as risk adjusters. The mechanism is retrospective, calculating average costs for each of the 670 risk cells defined by the risk adjusters and using these "standardized expenditures" as a base for the payment a single sickness fund gets because of its risk structure. There do still exist incentives for risk selection. The experience shows that mostly the young and healthy are willing to change sickness funds motivated by lower contribution rates. This can be used and is used for self-selection. Another cause of risk selection is regional differences. The central suggestion of an expertise on behalf of the German Ministry of Health on experiences and improvement proposals is the change to a direct modeling of morbidity.

Exploring Post-Program Psychological Adjustment for Adult Staff Facilitating a Wilderness Adventure Program

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lawrence-Wood, Ellie; Raymond, Ivan

2011-01-01

This paper outlines a pilot study of the post-program psychological adjustment outcomes of adult staff facilitating an Australian-based wilderness adventure program for youth at risk. The descriptive and correlational survey study (N = 62) examined the psychological adjustment processes staff underwent following program completion, and the factors…

Development and Validation of a Risk Scoring System for Severe Acute Lower Gastrointestinal Bleeding.

PubMed

Aoki, Tomonori; Nagata, Naoyoshi; Shimbo, Takuro; Niikura, Ryota; Sakurai, Toshiyuki; Moriyasu, Shiori; Okubo, Hidetaka; Sekine, Katsunori; Watanabe, Kazuhiro; Yokoi, Chizu; Yanase, Mikio; Akiyama, Junichi; Mizokami, Masashi; Uemura, Naomi

2016-11-01

We aimed to develop and validate a risk scoring system to determine the risk of severe lower gastrointestinal bleeding (LGIB) and predict patient outcomes. We first performed a retrospective analysis of data from 439 patients emergently hospitalized for acute LGIB at the National Center for Global Health and Medicine in Japan, from January 2009 through December 2013. We used data on comorbidities, medication, presenting symptoms, and vital signs, and laboratory test results to develop a scoring system for severe LGIB (defined as continuous and/or recurrent bleeding). We validated the risk score in a prospective study of 161 patients with acute LGIB admitted to the same center from April 2014 through April 2015. We assessed the system's accuracy in predicting patient outcome using area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) analysis. All patients underwent colonoscopy. In the first study, 29% of the patients developed severe LGIB. We devised a risk scoring system based on nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs use, no diarrhea, no abdominal tenderness, blood pressure of 100 mm Hg or lower, antiplatelet drugs use, albumin level less than 3.0 g/dL, disease scores of 2 or higher, and syncope (NOBLADS), which all were independent correlates of severe LGIB. Severe LGIB developed in 75.7% of patients with scores of 5 or higher compared with 2% of patients without any of the factors correlated with severe LGIB (P < .001). The NOBLADS score determined the severity of LGIB with an AUC value of 0.77. In the validation (second) study, severe LGIB developed in 35% of patients; the NOBLADS score predicted the severity of LGIB with an AUC value of 0.76. Higher NOBLADS scores were associated with a requirement for blood transfusion, longer hospital stay, and intervention (P < .05 for trend). We developed and validated a scoring system for risk of severe LGIB based on 8 factors (NOBLADS score). The system also determined the risk for blood transfusion, longer

Development and validation of risk models and molecular diagnostics to permit personalized management of cancer.

PubMed

Pu, Xia; Ye, Yuanqing; Wu, Xifeng

2014-01-01

Despite the advances made in cancer management over the past few decades, improvements in cancer diagnosis and prognosis are still poor, highlighting the need for individualized strategies. Toward this goal, risk prediction models and molecular diagnostic tools have been developed, tailoring each step of risk assessment from diagnosis to treatment and clinical outcomes based on the individual's clinical, epidemiological, and molecular profiles. These approaches hold increasing promise for delivering a new paradigm to maximize the efficiency of cancer surveillance and efficacy of treatment. However, they require stringent study design, methodology development, comprehensive assessment of biomarkers and risk factors, and extensive validation to ensure their overall usefulness for clinical translation. In the current study, the authors conducted a systematic review using breast cancer as an example and provide general guidelines for risk prediction models and molecular diagnostic tools, including development, assessment, and validation. © 2013 American Cancer Society.

High risk pregnancy in the workplace. Influencing positive outcomes.

PubMed

Cannon, R B; Schmidt, J V; Cambardella, B; Browne, S E

2000-09-01

Childbearing employees are well served by the occupational health nurse who promotes optimal preconceptual and pregnancy health practices, uses community resources, and maintains current knowledge about high risk pregnancy prevention and care. These broad goals of care can lead to decreased absenteeism, healthier and happier employees, and more positive outcomes of pregnancy. For employees with high risk pregnancies, the role of the occupational health nurse includes, but is not limited to, facilitating awareness with the employer, making suggestions for adjusting working conditions, making frequent assessments of the employee's needs, and communicating with prenatal health care providers. Occupational health nurses should never underestimate their role and potential influence on the mother, and on her significant other, for a positive outcome of her pregnancy.

Association of cumulative social risk with mortality and adverse cardiovascular disease outcomes.

PubMed

Erqou, Sebhat; Echouffo-Tcheugui, Justin B; Kip, Kevin E; Aiyer, Aryan; Reis, Steven E

2017-05-08

Quantifying the cumulative effect of social risk factors on cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk can help to better understand the sources of disparities in health outcomes. Data from the Heart Strategies Concentrating on Risk Evaluation (HeartSCORE) study were used to create an index of cumulative social risk (CSR) and quantify its association with incident CVD and all-cause mortality. CSR was defined by assigning a score of 1 for the presence of each of 4 social factors: i) racial minority status (Black race), ii) single living status, iii) low income, and iv) low educational level. Hazard ratios (HRs) were computed using Cox-regression models, adjusted for CVD risk factors. Over a median follow-up period of 8.3 years, 127 incident events were observed. The incidence of the primary outcome for subgroups of participants with 0, 1, and ≥2 CSR scores was 5.31 (95% CI, 3.40-7.22), 10.32 (7.16-13.49) and 17.80 (12.94-22.67) per 1000 person-years, respectively. Individuals with CSR score of 1 had an adjusted HR of 1.85 (1.15-2.97) for incident primary outcomes, compared to those with score of 0. The corresponding HR for individuals with CSR score of 2 or more was 2.58 (1.60-4.17). An accumulation of social risk factors independently increased the likelihood of CVD events and deaths in a cohort of White and Black individuals.

The risk-adjusted vision beyond casemix (DRG) funding in Australia. International lessons in high complexity and capitation.

PubMed

Antioch, Kathryn M; Walsh, Michael K

2004-06-01

Hospitals throughout the world using funding based on diagnosis-related groups (DRG) have incurred substantial budgetary deficits, despite high efficiency. We identify the limitations of DRG funding that lack risk (severity) adjustment for State-wide referral services. Methods to risk adjust DRGs are instructive. The average price in casemix funding in the Australian State of Victoria is policy based, not benchmarked. Average cost weights are too low for high-complexity DRGs relating to State-wide referral services such as heart and lung transplantation and trauma. Risk-adjusted specified grants (RASG) are required for five high-complexity respiratory, cardiology and stroke DRGs incurring annual deficits of $3.6 million due to high casemix complexity and government under-funding despite high efficiency. Five stepwise linear regressions for each DRG excluded non-significant variables and assessed heteroskedasticity and multicollinearlity. Cost per patient was the dependent variable. Significant independent variables were age, length-of-stay outliers, number of disease types, diagnoses, procedures and emergency status. Diagnosis and procedure severity markers were identified. The methodology and the work of the State-wide Risk Adjustment Working Group can facilitate risk adjustment of DRGs State-wide and for Treasury negotiations for expenditure growth. The Alfred Hospital previously negotiated RASG of $14 million over 5 years for three trauma and chronic DRGs. Some chronic diseases require risk-adjusted capitation funding models for Australian Health Maintenance Organizations as an alternative to casemix funding. The use of Diagnostic Cost Groups can facilitate State and Federal government reform via new population-based risk adjusted funding models that measure health need.

Lifestyle Factors and Early Clinical Outcome in Patients With Acute Stroke: A Population-Based Study.

PubMed

Ingeman, Annette; Andersen, Grethe; Thomsen, Reimar W; Hundborg, Heidi H; Rasmussen, Henrik H; Johnsen, Søren P

2017-03-01

We examined the associations of individual and combined lifestyle factors with early adverse stroke outcomes. A total of 82 597 patients were identified from nationwide registries. Lifestyle factors at the time of stroke admission included body mass index (kg/m 2 ), smoking habits, and alcohol intake, which were grouped (healthy, moderately healthy, moderately unhealthy, and unhealthy). The associations between lifestyle and outcomes were examined using multivariable regression. A total of 18.3% had a severe stroke, 7.8% pneumonia, 12.5% urinary tract infection, and 9.9% died within 30 days. The association between lifestyle, stroke severity, and mortality, respectively, differed according to sex. Unhealthy lifestyle was associated with lower risk of severe stroke (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 0.73; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.63-0.84) and 30-day mortality among men (adjusted OR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.58-0.87), but not among women (severe stroke: adjusted OR, 1.14; 95% CI, 0.85-1.55, and mortality: adjusted OR, 1.34; 95% CI, 0.90-1.99). No sex differences were found for pneumonia and urinary tract infection. Unhealthy lifestyle was not associated with a statistically significant increased risk of developing in-hospital pneumonia (adjusted OR, 1.30; 95% CI, 0.98-1.73) or urinary tract infection (adjusted OR, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.72-1.33). Underweight was associated with a higher 30-day mortality (men: adjusted OR, 1.71; 95% CI, 1.50-1.96, and women: adjusted OR, 1.46; 95% CI, 1.34-1.60). Healthy lifestyle was not associated with a lower risk of adverse stroke outcomes, in particularly among men. However, underweight may be a particular concern being associated with an increased risk of adverse outcomes among both sexes. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

A stratification approach using logit-based models for confounder adjustment in the study of continuous outcomes.

PubMed

Tan, Chuen Seng; Støer, Nathalie C; Chen, Ying; Andersson, Marielle; Ning, Yilin; Wee, Hwee-Lin; Khoo, Eric Yin Hao; Tai, E-Shyong; Kao, Shih Ling; Reilly, Marie

2017-01-01

The control of confounding is an area of extensive epidemiological research, especially in the field of causal inference for observational studies. Matched cohort and case-control study designs are commonly implemented to control for confounding effects without specifying the functional form of the relationship between the outcome and confounders. This paper extends the commonly used regression models in matched designs for binary and survival outcomes (i.e. conditional logistic and stratified Cox proportional hazards) to studies of continuous outcomes through a novel interpretation and application of logit-based regression models from the econometrics and marketing research literature. We compare the performance of the maximum likelihood estimators using simulated data and propose a heuristic argument for obtaining the residuals for model diagnostics. We illustrate our proposed approach with two real data applications. Our simulation studies demonstrate that our stratification approach is robust to model misspecification and that the distribution of the estimated residuals provides a useful diagnostic when the strata are of moderate size. In our applications to real data, we demonstrate that parity and menopausal status are associated with percent mammographic density, and that the mean level and variability of inpatient blood glucose readings vary between medical and surgical wards within a national tertiary hospital. Our work highlights how the same class of regression models, available in most statistical software, can be used to adjust for confounding in the study of binary, time-to-event and continuous outcomes.

A Contemporary Prostate Biopsy Risk Calculator Based on Multiple Heterogeneous Cohorts.

PubMed

Ankerst, Donna P; Straubinger, Johanna; Selig, Katharina; Guerrios, Lourdes; De Hoedt, Amanda; Hernandez, Javier; Liss, Michael A; Leach, Robin J; Freedland, Stephen J; Kattan, Michael W; Nam, Robert; Haese, Alexander; Montorsi, Francesco; Boorjian, Stephen A; Cooperberg, Matthew R; Poyet, Cedric; Vertosick, Emily; Vickers, Andrew J

2018-05-16

Prostate cancer prediction tools provide quantitative guidance for doctor-patient decision-making regarding biopsy. The widely used online Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial Risk Calculator (PCPTRC) utilized data from the 1990s based on six-core biopsies and outdated grading systems. We prospectively gathered data from men undergoing prostate biopsy in multiple diverse North American and European institutions participating in the Prostate Biopsy Collaborative Group (PBCG) in order to build a state-of-the-art risk prediction tool. We obtained data from 15 611 men undergoing 16 369 prostate biopsies during 2006-2017 at eight North American institutions for model-building and three European institutions for validation. We used multinomial logistic regression to estimate the risks of high-grade prostate cancer (Gleason score ≥7) on biopsy based on clinical characteristics, including age, prostate-specific antigen, digital rectal exam, African ancestry, first-degree family history, and prior negative biopsy. We compared the PBCG model to the PCPTRC using internal cross-validation and external validation on the European cohorts. Cross-validation on the North American cohorts (5992 biopsies) yielded the PBCG model area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) as 75.5% (95% confidence interval: 74.2-76.8), a small improvement over the AUC of 72.3% (70.9-73.7) for the PCPTRC (p<0.0001). However, calibration and clinical net benefit were far superior for the PBCG model. Using a risk threshold of 10%, clinical use of the PBCG model would lead to the equivalent of 25 fewer biopsies per 1000 patients without missing any high-grade cancers. Results were similar on external validation on 10 377 European biopsies. The PBCG model should be used in place of the PCPTRC for prediction of prostate biopsy outcome. A contemporary risk tool for outcomes on prostate biopsy based on the routine clinical risk factors is now available for informed decision-making. Copyright �

A risk-adjusted definition of biochemical recurrence after radical prostatectomy.

PubMed

Morgan, T M; Meng, M V; Cooperberg, M R; Cowan, J E; Weinberg, V; Carroll, P R; Lin, D W

2014-06-01

To determine whether a variable definition of biochemical recurrence (BCR) based on clincopathologic features facilitates early identification of patients likely to suffer from disease progression. The definition of BCR after radical prostatectomy (RP) bears important implications for patient counseling and management; however, there remains a significant debate regarding the appropriate definition. The study cohort consisted of 3619 men who underwent RP for localized prostate cancer from 1989 to 2007, with data abstracted from the Cancer of the Prostate Strategic Urologic Research Endeavor (CaPSURE) registry. Patients were stratified into three risk groups according to Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment post-Surgical (CAPRA-S) score. Three single threshold PSA cut-points for BCR were evaluated (PSA > or =0.05, > or =0.2 and > or =0.4 ng ml(-1)) as well as a variable cut-point defined by risk group. After reaching the cut-points, patients were followed for further PSA progression. The proportion of patients with BCR differed by cut-point and risk group, ranging from 7 to 37% (low risk), 22 to 58% (intermediate risk) and 60 to 86% (high risk). The positive-predictive value (PPV) for predicting further PSA progression was 49% for the PSA > or =0.05 ng ml(-1), 62% for the PSA > or =0.2 ng ml(-1), 65% for the PSA > or =0.4 ng ml(-1) and 68% for the risk-adjusted definition. Five-year progression-free survival was 39% for the risk-adjusted definition compared with 45-52% for the other definitions of BCR. These data suggest that a variable definition of BCR determined by clinicopathologic risk may improve the identification of early recurrence after RP without increasing the overdiagnosis of BCR. By using a risk-adjusted BCR definition, clinicians can better predict future PSA progression and more appropriately counsel patients regarding salvage therapies.

On-demand Reporting of Risk-adjusted and Smoothed Rates for Quality Profiling in ACS NSQIP.

PubMed

Cohen, Mark E; Liu, Yaoming; Huffman, Kristopher M; Ko, Clifford Y; Hall, Bruce L

2016-12-01

Surgical quality improvement depends on hospitals having accurate and timely information about comparative performance. Profiling accuracy is improved by risk adjustment and shrinkage adjustment to stabilize estimates. These adjustments are included in ACS NSQIP reports, where hospital odds ratios (OR) are estimated using hierarchical models built on contemporaneous data. However, the timeliness of feedback remains an issue. We describe an alternative, nonhierarchical approach, which yields risk- and shrinkage-adjusted rates. In contrast to our "Traditional" NSQIP method, this approach uses preexisting equations, built on historical data, which permits hospitals to have near immediate access to profiling results. We compared our traditional method to this new "on-demand" approach with respect to outlier determinations, kappa statistics, and correlations between logged OR and standardized rates, for 12 models (4 surgical groups by 3 outcomes). When both methods used the same contemporaneous data, there were similar numbers of hospital outliers and correlations between logged OR and standardized rates were high. However, larger differences were observed when the effect of contemporaneous versus historical data was added to differences in statistical methodology. The on-demand, nonhierarchical approach provides results similar to the traditional hierarchical method and offers immediacy, an "over-time" perspective, application to a broader range of models and data subsets, and reporting of more easily understood rates. Although the nonhierarchical method results are now available "on-demand" in a web-based application, the hierarchical approach has advantages, which support its continued periodic publication as the gold standard for hospital profiling in the program.

Factor Analysis of the Modified Sexual Adjustment Questionnaire-Male

PubMed Central

Wilmoth, Margaret C.; Hanlon, Alexandra L.; Ng, Lit Soo; Bruner, Debra W.

2015-01-01

Background and Purpose The Sexual Adjustment Questionnaire (SAQ) is used in National Cancer Institute–sponsored clinical trials as an outcome measure for sexual functioning. The tool was revised to meet the needs for a clinically useful, theory-based outcome measure for use in both research and clinical settings. This report describes the modifications and validity testing of the modified Sexual Adjustment Questionnaire-Male (mSAQ-Male). Methods This secondary analysis of data from a large Radiation Therapy Oncology Group trial employed principal axis factor analytic techniques in estimating validity of the revised tool. The sample size was 686; most subjects were White, older than the age 60 years, and with a high school education and a Karnofsky performance scale (KPS) score of greater than 90. Results A 16-item, 3-factor solution resulted from the factor analysis. The mSAQ-Male was also found to be sensitive to changes in physical sexual functioning as measured by the KPS. Conclusion The mSAQ-Male is a valid self-report measure of sexuality that can be used clinically to detect changes in male sexual functioning. PMID:25255676

Validation study of an electronic method of condensed outcomes tools reporting in orthopaedics.

PubMed

Farr, Jack; Verma, Nikhil; Cole, Brian J

2013-12-01

Patient-reported outcomes (PRO) instruments are a vital source of data for evaluating the efficacy of medical treatments. Historically, outcomes instruments have been designed, validated, and implemented as paper-based questionnaires. The collection of paper-based outcomes information may result in patients becoming fatigued as they respond to redundant questions. This problem is exacerbated when multiple PRO measures are provided to a single patient. In addition, the management and analysis of data collected in paper format involves labor-intensive processes to score and render the data analyzable. Computer-based outcomes systems have the potential to mitigate these problems by reformatting multiple outcomes tools into a single, user-friendly tool.The study aimed to determine whether the electronic outcomes system presented produces results comparable with the test-retest correlations reported for the corresponding orthopedic paper-based outcomes instruments.The study is designed as a crossover study based on consecutive orthopaedic patients arriving at one of two designated orthopedic knee clinics.Patients were assigned to complete either a paper or a computer-administered questionnaire based on a similar set of questions (Knee injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score, International Knee Documentation Committee form, 36-Item Short Form survey, version 1, Lysholm Knee Scoring Scale). Each patient completed the same surveys using the other instrument, so that all patients had completed both paper and electronic versions. Correlations between the results from the two modes were studied and compared with test-retest data from the original validation studies.The original validation studies established test-retest reliability by computing correlation coefficients for two administrations of the paper instrument. Those correlation coefficients were all in the range of 0.7 to 0.9, which was deemed satisfactory. The present study computed correlation coefficients between

Validation of the EBMT risk score in chronic myeloid leukemia in Brazil and allogeneic transplant outcome.

PubMed

De Souza, Carmino Antonio; Vigorito, Afonso Celso; Ruiz, Milton Artur; Nucci, Márcio; Dulley, Frederico Luiz; Funcke, Vaneusa; Tabak, Daniel; Azevedo, Alexandre Mello; Byington, Rita; Macedo, Maria Cristina; Saboya, Rosaura; Penteado Aranha, Francisco José; Oliveira, Gislaine Barbosa; Zulli, Roberto; Martins Miranda, Eliana Cristina; Azevedo, Wellington Moraes; Lodi, Fernanda Maria; Voltarelli, Júlio Cesar; Simões, Belinda Pinto; Colturato, Vergílio; De Souza, Mair Pedro; Silla, Lúcia; Bittencourt, Henrique; Piron-Ruiz, Lilian; Maiolino, Angelo; Gratwohl, Alois; Pasquini, Ricardo

2005-02-01

The management of chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) has changed radically since the introduction of imatinib therapy. The decision of whether to offer a patient a hematopoietic stem cell transplant (HSCT) must be based on the probability of success of the procedure. The aim of this retrospective analysis of 1,084 CML patients who received an allogeneic HSCT in 10 Brazilian Centers between February 1983 and March 2003 was to validate the EBMT risk score. The study population comprised 647 (60%) males and 437 (40%) females, with a median age of 32 years old (range 1 - 59); 898 (83%) were in chronic phase, 146 (13%) were in accelerated phase and 40 (4%) were in blast crisis; 151 (14%) were younger than 20 years old, 620 (57%) were between 20 and 40 and 313 (29%) were older than 40; 1,025 (94%) received an HLA fully matched sibling transplant and only 59 (6%) received an unrelated transplant. In 283 cases (26%) a male recipient received a graft from a female donor. The interval from diagnosis to transplantation was less than 12 months in 223 (21%) cases and greater in 861 (79%). The overall survival, disease-free survival, transplant-related mortality and relapse incidence were 49%, 50%, 45% and 25%, respectively. Of the 1084 patients, 179 (17%) had a risk score of 0 or 1, 397 (37%) had a score of 2, 345 (32%) had a score of 3, 135 (12%) had a score of 4 and 28 (2%) a score of 5 or 6. The overall survival (OS) rate in patients with risk scores 0-1 and 2 was similar (58% and 55%, respectively) but significantly better than that in patients with scores 3 or more (score 3 - 44%, 4 - 36 % and 5-6 - 27%, respectively) pp<0.001). Disease-free survival (DFS) and transplant related mortality (TRM) in a patients with a score of 3 or more were 46% and 49%, respectively and the relapse rate beyond score 5-6 was 77%. Disease status had a negative impact on all outcomes (OS, DFS, TRM, and relapse). The OS rate for male recipients of a graft from a female donor was 40% compared to 52

Modeling Clinical Outcomes in Prostate Cancer: Application and Validation of the Discrete Event Simulation Approach.

PubMed

Pan, Feng; Reifsnider, Odette; Zheng, Ying; Proskorovsky, Irina; Li, Tracy; He, Jianming; Sorensen, Sonja V

2018-04-01

Treatment landscape in prostate cancer has changed dramatically with the emergence of new medicines in the past few years. The traditional survival partition model (SPM) cannot accurately predict long-term clinical outcomes because it is limited by its ability to capture the key consequences associated with this changing treatment paradigm. The objective of this study was to introduce and validate a discrete-event simulation (DES) model for prostate cancer. A DES model was developed to simulate overall survival (OS) and other clinical outcomes based on patient characteristics, treatment received, and disease progression history. We tested and validated this model with clinical trial data from the abiraterone acetate phase III trial (COU-AA-302). The model was constructed with interim data (55% death) and validated with the final data (96% death). Predicted OS values were also compared with those from the SPM. The DES model's predicted time to chemotherapy and OS are highly consistent with the final observed data. The model accurately predicts the OS hazard ratio from the final data cut (predicted: 0.74; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.64-0.85 and final actual: 0.74; 95% CI 0.6-0.88). The log-rank test to compare the observed and predicted OS curves indicated no statistically significant difference between observed and predicted curves. However, the predictions from the SPM based on interim data deviated significantly from the final data. Our study showed that a DES model with properly developed risk equations presents considerable improvements to the more traditional SPM in flexibility and predictive accuracy of long-term outcomes. Copyright © 2018 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Development and Validation of a Theory Based Screening Process for Suicide Risk

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-01

not be delayed until all data have been collected. This is with particular respect to our data that confirms soldiers under report suicide ideation ...and that while they say that they would inform loved ones about suicidal thoughts, over 50% of soldiers who endorse ideation have not told anyone...AD_________________ Award Number: W81XWH-11-1-0588 TITLE: Development and Validation of a Theory Based Screening Process for Suicide Risk

An International Standard Set of Patient-Centered Outcome Measures After Stroke.

PubMed

Salinas, Joel; Sprinkhuizen, Sara M; Ackerson, Teri; Bernhardt, Julie; Davie, Charlie; George, Mary G; Gething, Stephanie; Kelly, Adam G; Lindsay, Patrice; Liu, Liping; Martins, Sheila C O; Morgan, Louise; Norrving, Bo; Ribbers, Gerard M; Silver, Frank L; Smith, Eric E; Williams, Linda S; Schwamm, Lee H

2016-01-01

Value-based health care aims to bring together patients and health systems to maximize the ratio of quality over cost. To enable assessment of healthcare value in stroke management, an international standard set of patient-centered stroke outcome measures was defined for use in a variety of healthcare settings. A modified Delphi process was implemented with an international expert panel representing patients, advocates, and clinical specialists in stroke outcomes, stroke registers, global health, epidemiology, and rehabilitation to reach consensus on the preferred outcome measures, included populations, and baseline risk adjustment variables. Patients presenting to a hospital with ischemic stroke or intracerebral hemorrhage were selected as the target population for these recommendations, with the inclusion of transient ischemic attacks optional. Outcome categories recommended for assessment were survival and disease control, acute complications, and patient-reported outcomes. Patient-reported outcomes proposed for assessment at 90 days were pain, mood, feeding, selfcare, mobility, communication, cognitive functioning, social participation, ability to return to usual activities, and health-related quality of life, with mobility, feeding, selfcare, and communication also collected at discharge. One instrument was able to collect most patient-reported subdomains (9/16, 56%). Minimum data collection for risk adjustment included patient demographics, premorbid functioning, stroke type and severity, vascular and systemic risk factors, and specific treatment/care-related factors. A consensus stroke measure Standard Set was developed as a simple, pragmatic method to increase the value of stroke care. The set should be validated in practice when used for monitoring and comparisons across different care settings. © 2015 The Authors.

Migraine and risk of cardiovascular diseases: Danish population based matched cohort study

PubMed Central

Szépligeti, Szimonetta Komjáthiné; Holland-Bill, Louise; Ehrenstein, Vera; Horváth-Puhó, Erzsébet; Henderson, Victor W; Sørensen, Henrik Toft

2018-01-01

Abstract Objective To examine the risks of myocardial infarction, stroke (ischaemic and haemorrhagic), peripheral artery disease, venous thromboembolism, atrial fibrillation or atrial flutter, and heart failure in patients with migraine and in a general population comparison cohort. Design Nationwide, population based cohort study. Setting All Danish hospitals and hospital outpatient clinics from 1995 to 2013. Participants 51 032 patients with migraine and 510 320 people from the general population matched on age, sex, and calendar year. Main outcome measures Comorbidity adjusted hazard ratios of cardiovascular outcomes based on Cox regression analysis. Results Higher absolute risks were observed among patients with incident migraine than in the general population across most outcomes and follow-up periods. After 19 years of follow-up, the cumulative incidences per 1000 people for the migraine cohort compared with the general population were 25 v 17 for myocardial infarction, 45 v 25 for ischaemic stroke, 11 v 6 for haemorrhagic stroke, 13 v 11 for peripheral artery disease, 27 v 18 for venous thromboembolism, 47 v 34 for atrial fibrillation or atrial flutter, and 19 v 18 for heart failure. Correspondingly, migraine was positively associated with myocardial infarction (adjusted hazard ratio 1.49, 95% confidence interval 1.36 to 1.64), ischaemic stroke (2.26, 2.11 to 2.41), and haemorrhagic stroke (1.94, 1.68 to 2.23), as well as venous thromboembolism (1.59, 1.45 to 1.74) and atrial fibrillation or atrial flutter (1.25, 1.16 to 1.36). No meaningful association was found with peripheral artery disease (adjusted hazard ratio 1.12, 0.96 to 1.30) or heart failure (1.04, 0.93 to 1.16). The associations, particularly for stroke outcomes, were stronger during the short term (0-1 years) after diagnosis than the long term (up to 19 years), in patients with aura than in those without aura, and in women than in men. In a subcohort of patients, the associations persisted

The Effect of Complementary and Alternative Medicine Claims on Risk Adjustment

PubMed Central

Lind, Bonnie K.; Abrams, Chad; Lafferty, William E.; Kiehr, Paula K.; Grembowski, David E.

2006-01-01

Objective To assess how the inclusion of diagnoses from complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) providers affects measures of morbidity burden and expectations of health care resource use for insured patients. Methods Claims data from Washington State were used to create two versions of a case-mix index. One version included claims from all provider types; the second version omitted claims from CAM providers who are covered under commercial insurance. Expected resource use was also calculated. The distribution of expected and actual resource use was then compared for the two indices. Results Inclusion of CAM providers shifts many patients into higher morbidity categories; 54% of 61,914 CAM users had higher risk scores in the index which included CAM providers. When expected resource use categories were defined based on all providers, CAM users in the highest morbidity category had average (± s.d.) annual expenditures of $6661 (± $13,863). This was less than those in the highest morbidity category when CAM providers were not included in the index ($8562 ± $16,354), and was also lower than the highest morbidity patients who did not use any CAM services ($8419 ± $18,885). Conclusions Inclusion of services from CAM providers under third party payment increases risk scores for their patients but expectations of costs for this group are lower than expected had costs been estimated based only on services from traditional providers. Additional work is needed to validate risk adjustment indices when adding services from provider groups not included in the development of the index. PMID:17122711

The HARM score for gastrointestinal surgery: Application and validation of a novel, reliable and simple tool to measure surgical quality and outcomes.

PubMed

Crawshaw, Benjamin P; Keller, Deborah S; Brady, Justin T; Augestad, Knut M; Schiltz, Nicholas K; Koroukian, Siran M; Navale, Suparna M; Steele, Scott R; Delaney, Conor P

2017-03-01

The HospitAl length of stay, Readmissions and Mortality (HARM) score is a simple, inexpensive quality tool, linked directly to patient outcomes. We assess the HARM score for measuring surgical quality across multiple surgical populations. Upper gastrointestinal, hepatobiliary, and colorectal surgery cases between 2005 and 2009 were identified from the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project California State Inpatient Database. Composite and individual HARM scores were calculated from length of stay, 30-day readmission and mortality, correlated to complication rates for each hospital and stratified by operative type. 71,419 admissions were analyzed. Higher HARM scores correlated with higher complication rates for all cases after risk adjustment and stratification by operation type, elective or emergent status. The HARM score is a simple and valid quality measurement for upper gastrointestinal, hepatobiliary and colorectal surgery. The HARM score could facilitate benchmarking to improve patient outcomes and resource utilization, and may facilitate outcome improvement. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Benchmarking Outpatient Rehabilitation Clinics Using Functional Status Outcomes.

PubMed

Gozalo, Pedro L; Resnik, Linda J; Silver, Benjamin

2016-04-01

To utilize functional status (FS) outcomes to benchmark outpatient therapy clinics. Outpatient therapy data from clinics using Focus on Therapeutic Outcomes (FOTO) assessments. Retrospective analysis of 538 clinics, involving 2,040 therapists and 90,392 patients admitted July 2006-June 2008. FS at discharge was modeled using hierarchical regression methods with patients nested within therapists within clinics. Separate models were estimated for all patients, for those with lumbar, and for those with shoulder impairments. All models risk-adjusted for intake FS, age, gender, onset, surgery count, functional comorbidity index, fear-avoidance level, and payer type. Inverse probability weighting adjusted for censoring. Functional status was captured using computer adaptive testing at intake and at discharge. Clinic and therapist effects explained 11.6 percent of variation in FS. Clinics ranked in the lowest quartile had significantly different outcomes than those in the highest quartile (p < .01). Clinics ranked similarly in lumbar and shoulder impairments (correlation = 0.54), but some clinics ranked in the highest quintile for one condition and in the lowest for the other. Benchmarking models based on validated FS measures clearly separated high-quality from low-quality clinics, and they could be used to inform value-based-payment policies. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

Variable Lifting Index for Manual-Lifting Risk Assessment: A Preliminary Validation Study.

PubMed

Battevi, Natale; Pandolfi, Monica; Cortinovis, Ivan

2016-08-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of the new Variable Lifting Index (VLI) method, theoretically based on the Revised National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health [NIOSH] Lifting Equation (RNLE), in predicting the risk of acute low-back pain (LBP) in the past 12 months. A new risk variable termed the VLI for assessing variable manual lifting has been developed, but there has been no epidemiological study that evaluates the relationship between the VLI and LBP. A sample of 3,402 study participants from 16 companies in different industrial sectors was analyzed. Of the participants, 2,374 were in the risk exposure group involving manual materials handling (MMH), and 1,028 were in the control group without MMH. The VLI was calculated for each participant in the exposure group using a systematic approach. LBP information was collected by occupational physicians at the study sites. The risk of acute LBP was estimated by calculating the odds ratio (OR) between levels of the risk exposure and the control group using a logistic regression analysis. Both crude and adjusted ORs for body mass index, gender, and age were analyzed. Both crude and adjusted ORs showed a dose-response relationship. As the levels of VLI increased, the risk of LBP increased. This risk relationship existed when VLI was greater than 1. The VLI method can be used to assess the risk of acute LBP, although further studies are needed to confirm the outcome and to define better VLI categories. © 2016, Human Factors and Ergonomics Society.

Model testing for reliability and validity of the Outcome Expectations for Exercise Scale.

PubMed

Resnick, B; Zimmerman, S; Orwig, D; Furstenberg, A L; Magaziner, J

2001-01-01

Development of a reliable and valid measure of outcome expectations for exercise appropriate for older adults will help establish the relationship between outcome expectations and exercise. Once established, this measure can be used to facilitate the development of interventions to strengthen outcome expectations and improve adherence to regular exercise in older adults. Building on initial psychometrics of the Outcome Expectation for Exercise (OEE) Scale, the purpose of the current study was to use structural equation modeling to provide additional support for the reliability and validity of this measure. The OEE scale is a 9-item measure specifically focusing on the perceived consequences of exercise for older adults. The OEE scale was given to 191 residents in a continuing care retirement community. The mean age of the participants was 85 +/- 6.1 and the majority were female (76%), White (99%), and unmarried (76%). Using structural equation modeling, reliability was based on R2 values, and validity was based on a confirmatory factor analysis and path coefficients. There was continued evidence for reliability of the OEE based on R2 values ranging from .42 to .77, and validity with path coefficients ranging from .69 to .87, and evidence of model fit (X2 of 69, df = 27, p < .05, NFI = .98, RMSEA = .07). The evidence of reliability and validity of this measure has important implications for clinical work and research. The OEE scale can be used to identify older adults who have low outcome expectations for exercise, and interventions can then be implemented to strengthen these expectations and thereby improve exercise behavior.

Concurrent validity of the College Adjustment scales using comparison with the MMPI College Maladjustment Scale.

PubMed

Campbell, Michael H; Palmieri, Michael; Lasch, Brandi

2006-12-01

The concurrent validity of the College Adjustment Scales was assessed using comparison to the College Maladjustment Scale of the Minnesota Multiphasic Inventory-2. Undergraduate students (N=56, 40 women, M age = 21.3 yr., 87.5% white, non-Hispanic) completed both tests. Analysis indicated scores on 8 of 9 College Adjustment Scales correlated significantly in the predicted direction with those on the College Maladjustment Scale, thereby providing some additional support for convergent validity. While the conclusions are limited significantly by the small sample, this report provides an incremental contribution to the validity of the College Adjustment Scales.

Introducing risk adjustment and free health plan choice in employer-based health insurance: Evidence from Germany.

PubMed

Pilny, Adam; Wübker, Ansgar; Ziebarth, Nicolas R

2017-12-01

To equalize differences in health plan premiums due to differences in risk pools, the German legislature introduced a simple Risk Adjustment Scheme (RAS) based on age, gender and disability status in 1994. In addition, effective 1996, consumers gained the freedom to choose among hundreds of existing health plans, across employers and state-borders. This paper (a) estimates RAS pass-through rates on premiums, financial reserves, and expenditures and assesses the overall RAS impact on market price dispersion. Moreover, it (b) characterizes health plan switchers and investigates their annual and cumulative switching rates over time. Our main findings are based on representative enrollee panel data linked to administrative RAS and health plan data. We show that sickness funds with bad risk pools and high pre-RAS premiums lowered their total premiums by 42 cents per additional euro allocated by the RAS. Consequently, post-RAS, health plan prices converged but not fully. Because switchers are more likely to be white collar, young and healthy, the new consumer choice resulted in more risk segregation and the amount of money redistributed by the RAS increased over time. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Validation of the Economic and Health Outcomes Model of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (ECHO-T2DM).

PubMed

Willis, Michael; Johansen, Pierre; Nilsson, Andreas; Asseburg, Christian

2017-03-01

The Economic and Health Outcomes Model of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (ECHO-T2DM) was developed to address study questions pertaining to the cost-effectiveness of treatment alternatives in the care of patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Naturally, the usefulness of a model is determined by the accuracy of its predictions. A previous version of ECHO-T2DM was validated against actual trial outcomes and the model predictions were generally accurate. However, there have been recent upgrades to the model, which modify model predictions and necessitate an update of the validation exercises. The objectives of this study were to extend the methods available for evaluating model validity, to conduct a formal model validation of ECHO-T2DM (version 2.3.0) in accordance with the principles espoused by the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR) and the Society for Medical Decision Making (SMDM), and secondarily to evaluate the relative accuracy of four sets of macrovascular risk equations included in ECHO-T2DM. We followed the ISPOR/SMDM guidelines on model validation, evaluating face validity, verification, cross-validation, and external validation. Model verification involved 297 'stress tests', in which specific model inputs were modified systematically to ascertain correct model implementation. Cross-validation consisted of a comparison between ECHO-T2DM predictions and those of the seminal National Institutes of Health model. In external validation, study characteristics were entered into ECHO-T2DM to replicate the clinical results of 12 studies (including 17 patient populations), and model predictions were compared to observed values using established statistical techniques as well as measures of average prediction error, separately for the four sets of macrovascular risk equations supported in ECHO-T2DM. Sub-group analyses were conducted for dependent vs. independent outcomes and for microvascular vs. macrovascular vs. mortality

Refining and validating a two-stage and web-based cancer risk assessment tool for village doctors in China.

PubMed

Shen, Xing-Rong; Chai, Jing; Feng, Rui; Liu, Tong-Zhu; Tong, Gui-Xian; Cheng, Jing; Li, Kai-Chun; Xie, Shao-Yu; Shi, Yong; Wang, De-Bin

2014-01-01

The big gap between efficacy of population level prevention and expectations due to heterogeneity and complexity of cancer etiologic factors calls for selective yet personalized interventions based on effective risk assessment. This paper documents our research protocol aimed at refining and validating a two-stage and web- based cancer risk assessment tool, from a tentative one in use by an ongoing project, capable of identifying individuals at elevated risk for one or more types of the 80% leading cancers in rural China with adequate sensitivity and specificity and featuring low cost, easy application and cultural and technical sensitivity for farmers and village doctors. The protocol adopted a modified population-based case control design using 72, 000 non-patients as controls, 2, 200 cancer patients as cases, and another 600 patients as cases for external validation. Factors taken into account comprised 8 domains including diet and nutrition, risk behaviors, family history, precancerous diseases, related medical procedures, exposure to environment hazards, mood and feelings, physical activities and anthropologic and biologic factors. Modeling stresses explored various methodologies like empirical analysis, logistic regression, neuro-network analysis, decision theory and both internal and external validation using concordance statistics, predictive values, etc..

Prediction of the effect of atrasentan on renal and heart failure outcomes based on short-term changes in multiple risk markers.

PubMed

Schievink, Bauke; de Zeeuw, Dick; Smink, Paul A; Andress, Dennis; Brennan, John J; Coll, Blai; Correa-Rotter, Ricardo; Hou, Fan Fan; Kohan, Donald; Kitzman, Dalane W; Makino, Hirofumi; Parving, Hans-Henrik; Perkovic, Vlado; Remuzzi, Giuseppe; Tobe, Sheldon; Toto, Robert; Hoekman, Jarno; Lambers Heerspink, Hiddo J

2016-05-01

A recent phase II clinical trial (Reducing Residual Albuminuria in Subjects with Diabetes and Nephropathy with AtRasentan trial and an identical trial in Japan (RADAR/JAPAN)) showed that the endothelin A receptor antagonist atrasentan lowers albuminuria, blood pressure, cholesterol, hemoglobin, and increases body weight in patients with type 2 diabetes and nephropathy. We previously developed an algorithm, the Parameter Response Efficacy (PRE) score, which translates short-term drug effects into predictions of long-term effects on clinical outcomes. We used the PRE score on data from the RADAR/JAPAN study to predict the effect of atrasentan on renal and heart failure outcomes. We performed a post-hoc analysis of the RADAR/JAPAN randomized clinical trials in which 211 patients with type-2 diabetes and nephropathy were randomly assigned to atrasentan 0.75 mg/day, 1.25 mg/day, or placebo. A PRE score was developed in a background set of completed clinical trials using multivariate Cox models. The score was applied to baseline and week-12 risk marker levels of RADAR/JAPAN participants, to predict atrasentan effects on clinical outcomes. Outcomes were defined as doubling serum creatinine or end-stage renal disease and hospitalization for heart failure. The PRE score predicted renal risk changes of -23% and -30% for atrasentan 0.75 and 1.25 mg/day, respectively. PRE scores also predicted a small non-significant increase in heart failure risk for atrasentan 0.75 and 1.25 mg/day (+2% vs. +7%). Selecting patients with >30% albuminuria reduction from baseline (responders) improved renal outcome to almost 50% risk reduction, whereas non-responders showed no renal benefit. Based on the RADAR/JAPAN study, with short-term changes in risk markers, atrasentan is expected to decrease renal risk without increased risk of heart failure. Within this population albuminuria responders appear to contribute to the predicted improvements, whereas non-responders showed no benefit

Modelling the impact of new patient visits on risk adjusted access at 2 clinics.

PubMed

Kolber, Michael A; Rueda, Germán; Sory, John B

2018-06-01

To evaluate the effect new outpatient clinic visits has on the availability of follow-up visits for established patients when patient visit frequency is risk adjusted. Diagnosis codes for patients from 2 Internal Medicine Clinics were extracted through billing data. The HHS-HCC risk adjusted scores for each clinic were determined based upon the average of all clinic practitioners' profiles. These scores were then used to project encounter frequencies for established patients, and for new patients entering the clinic based on risk and time of entry into the clinics. A distinct mean risk frequency distribution for physicians in each clinic could be defined providing model parameters. Within the model, follow-up visit utilization at the highest risk adjusted visit frequencies would require more follow-up slots than currently available when new patient no-show rates and annual patient loss are included. Patients seen at an intermediate or lower visit risk adjusted frequency could be accommodated when new patient no-show rates and annual patient clinic loss are considered. Value-based care is driven by control of cost while maintaining quality of care. In order to control cost, there has been a drive to increase visit frequency in primary care for those patients at increased risk. Adding new patients to primary care clinics limits the availability of follow-up slots that accrue over time for those at highest risk, thereby limiting disease and, potentially, cost control. If frequency of established care visits can be reduced by improved disease control, closing the practice to new patients, hiring health care extenders, or providing non-face to face care models then quality and cost of care may be improved. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Donor information based prediction of early allograft dysfunction and outcome in liver transplantation.

PubMed

Hoyer, Dieter P; Paul, Andreas; Gallinat, Anja; Molmenti, Ernesto P; Reinhardt, Renate; Minor, Thomas; Saner, Fuat H; Canbay, Ali; Treckmann, Jürgen W; Sotiropoulos, Georgios C; Mathé, Zoltan

2015-01-01

Poor initial graft function was recently newly defined as early allograft dysfunction (EAD) [Olthoff KM, Kulik L, Samstein B, et al. Validation of a current definition of early allograft dysfunction in liver transplant recipients and analysis of risk factors. Liver Transpl 2010; 16: 943]. Aim of this analysis was to evaluate predictive donor information for development of EAD. Six hundred and seventy-eight consecutive adult patients (mean age 51.6 years; 60.3% men) who received a primary liver transplantation (LT) (09/2003-12/2011) were included. Standard donor data were correlated with EAD and outcome by univariable/multivariable logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards to identify prognostic donor factors after adjustment for recipient confounders. Estimates of relevant factors were utilized for construction of a new continuous risk index to develop EAD. 38.7% patients developed EAD. 30-day survival of grafts with and without EAD was 59.8% and 89.7% (P < 0.0001). 30-day survival of patients with and without EAD was 68.5% and 93.1% (P < 0.0001) respectively. Donor body mass index (P = 0.0112), gGT (P = 0.0471), macrosteatosis (P = 0.0006) and cold ischaemia time (CIT) (P = 0.0031) were predictors of EAD. Internal cross validation showed a high predictive value (c-index = 0.622). Early allograft dysfunction correlates with early results of LT and can be predicted by donor data only. The newly introduced risk index potentially optimizes individual decisions to accept/decline high risk organs. Outcome of these organs might be improved by shortening CIT. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Case complexity scores in congenital heart surgery: a comparative study of the Aristotle Basic Complexity score and the Risk Adjustment in Congenital Heart Surgery (RACHS-1) system.

PubMed

Al-Radi, Osman O; Harrell, Frank E; Caldarone, Christopher A; McCrindle, Brian W; Jacobs, Jeffrey P; Williams, M Gail; Van Arsdell, Glen S; Williams, William G

2007-04-01

The Aristotle Basic Complexity score and the Risk Adjustment in Congenital Heart Surgery system were developed by consensus to compare outcomes of congenital cardiac surgery. We compared the predictive value of the 2 systems. Of all index congenital cardiac operations at our institution from 1982 to 2004 (n = 13,675), we were able to assign an Aristotle Basic Complexity score, a Risk Adjustment in Congenital Heart Surgery score, and both scores to 13,138 (96%), 11,533 (84%), and 11,438 (84%) operations, respectively. Models of in-hospital mortality and length of stay were generated for Aristotle Basic Complexity and Risk Adjustment in Congenital Heart Surgery using an identical data set in which both Aristotle Basic Complexity and Risk Adjustment in Congenital Heart Surgery scores were assigned. The likelihood ratio test for nested models and paired concordance statistics were used. After adjustment for year of operation, the odds ratios for Aristotle Basic Complexity score 3 versus 6, 9 versus 6, 12 versus 6, and 15 versus 6 were 0.29, 2.22, 7.62, and 26.54 (P < .0001). Similarly, odds ratios for Risk Adjustment in Congenital Heart Surgery categories 1 versus 2, 3 versus 2, 4 versus 2, and 5/6 versus 2 were 0.23, 1.98, 5.80, and 20.71 (P < .0001). Risk Adjustment in Congenital Heart Surgery added significant predictive value over Aristotle Basic Complexity (likelihood ratio chi2 = 162, P < .0001), whereas Aristotle Basic Complexity contributed much less predictive value over Risk Adjustment in Congenital Heart Surgery (likelihood ratio chi2 = 13.4, P = .009). Neither system fully adjusted for the child's age. The Risk Adjustment in Congenital Heart Surgery scores were more concordant with length of stay compared with Aristotle Basic Complexity scores (P < .0001). The predictive value of Risk Adjustment in Congenital Heart Surgery is higher than that of Aristotle Basic Complexity. The use of Aristotle Basic Complexity or Risk Adjustment in Congenital Heart Surgery

48 CFR 215.404-71-3 - Contract type risk and working capital adjustment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... varying contract types. The working capital adjustment is an adjustment added to the profit objective for... Base (item 20) Profit objective 24. CONTRACT type risk (1) (2) (3) Cost financed Length factor Interest... money. (3) Multiply (1) by (2). (4) Only complete this block when the prospective contract is a fixed...

48 CFR 215.404-71-3 - Contract type risk and working capital adjustment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... varying contract types. The working capital adjustment is an adjustment added to the profit objective for... Base (item 20) Profit objective 24. CONTRACT type risk (1) (2) (3) Cost financed Length factor Interest... money. (3) Multiply (1) by (2). (4) Only complete this block when the prospective contract is a fixed...

48 CFR 215.404-71-3 - Contract type risk and working capital adjustment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... varying contract types. The working capital adjustment is an adjustment added to the profit objective for... Base (item 20) Profit objective 24. CONTRACT type risk (1) (2) (3) Cost financed Length factor Interest... money. (3) Multiply (1) by (2). (4) Only complete this block when the prospective contract is a fixed...

Modeling Major Adverse Outcomes of Pediatric and Adult Patients With Congenital Heart Disease Undergoing Cardiac Catheterization: Observations From the NCDR IMPACT Registry (National Cardiovascular Data Registry Improving Pediatric and Adult Congenital Treatment).

PubMed

Jayaram, Natalie; Spertus, John A; Kennedy, Kevin F; Vincent, Robert; Martin, Gerard R; Curtis, Jeptha P; Nykanen, David; Moore, Phillip M; Bergersen, Lisa

2017-11-21

Risk standardization for adverse events after congenital cardiac catheterization is needed to equitably compare patient outcomes among different hospitals as a foundation for quality improvement. The goal of this project was to develop a risk-standardization methodology to adjust for patient characteristics when comparing major adverse outcomes in the NCDR's (National Cardiovascular Data Registry) IMPACT Registry (Improving Pediatric and Adult Congenital Treatment). Between January 2011 and March 2014, 39 725 consecutive patients within IMPACT undergoing cardiac catheterization were identified. Given the heterogeneity of interventional procedures for congenital heart disease, new procedure-type risk categories were derived with empirical data and expert opinion, as were markers of hemodynamic vulnerability. A multivariable hierarchical logistic regression model to identify patient and procedural characteristics predictive of a major adverse event or death after cardiac catheterization was derived in 70% of the cohort and validated in the remaining 30%. The rate of major adverse event or death was 7.1% and 7.2% in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. Six procedure-type risk categories and 6 independent indicators of hemodynamic vulnerability were identified. The final risk adjustment model included procedure-type risk category, number of hemodynamic vulnerability indicators, renal insufficiency, single-ventricle physiology, and coagulation disorder. The model had good discrimination, with a C-statistic of 0.76 and 0.75 in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. Model calibration in the validation cohort was excellent, with a slope of 0.97 (standard error, 0.04; P value [for difference from 1] =0.53) and an intercept of 0.007 (standard error, 0.12; P value [for difference from 0] =0.95). The creation of a validated risk-standardization model for adverse outcomes after congenital cardiac catheterization can support reporting of risk-adjusted

"Subthreshold" depression: is the distinction between depressive disorder not otherwise specified and adjustment disorder valid?

PubMed

Zimmerman, Mark; Martinez, Jennifer H; Dalrymple, Kristy; Chelminski, Iwona; Young, Diane

2013-05-01

Patients with clinically significant symptoms of depression who do not meet the criteria for major depressive disorder or dysthymic disorder are considered to have subthreshold depression. According to DSM-IV, such patients should be diagnosed with depressive disorder not otherwise specified (NOS) if the development of the symptoms is not attributable to a stressful event or with adjustment disorder if the symptoms follow a stressor. Research on the treatment of subthreshold depression rarely addresses the distinction between depressive disorder NOS and adjustment disorder. In the present report from the Rhode Island Methods to Improve Diagnostic Assessment and Services (MIDAS) project, we examined the validity of this distinction. From December 1995 to June 2011, 3,400 psychiatric patients presenting to the Rhode Island Hospital outpatient practice were evaluated with semistructured diagnostic interviews for DSM-IV Axis I and Axis II disorders and measures of psychosocial morbidity. Slightly less than 10% (n = 300) of the 3,400 patients were diagnosed with depressive disorder NOS or adjustment disorder with depressed mood. The patients with depressive disorder NOS were significantly more often diagnosed with social phobia (P < .05) and a personality disorder (P < .01). The patients with depressive disorder NOS reported more anhedonia, increased appetite, increased sleep, and indecisiveness, whereas the patients with adjustment disorder reported more weight loss, reduced appetite, and insomnia. There was no significant difference between the groups in overall level of severity of depression or impaired functioning. The patients with depressive disorder NOS had a nonsignificantly elevated morbid risk of depression in their first-degree relatives. Clinically significant subthreshold depression was common in psychiatric outpatients, and the present results support the validity of distinguishing between depressive disorder NOS and adjustment disorder with depressed

A population health approach to reducing observational intensity bias in health risk adjustment: cross sectional analysis of insurance claims

PubMed Central

Sharp, Sandra M; Bevan, Gwyn; Skinner, Jonathan S; Gottlieb, Daniel J

2014-01-01

Objective To compare the performance of two new approaches to risk adjustment that are free of the influence of observational intensity with methods that depend on diagnoses listed in administrative databases. Setting Administrative data from the US Medicare program for services provided in 2007 among 306 US hospital referral regions. Design Cross sectional analysis. Participants 20% sample of fee for service Medicare beneficiaries residing in one of 306 hospital referral regions in the United States in 2007 (n=5 153 877). Main outcome measures The effect of health risk adjustment on age, sex, and race adjusted mortality and spending rates among hospital referral regions using four indices: the standard Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services—Hierarchical Condition Categories (HCC) index used by the US Medicare program (calculated from diagnoses listed in Medicare’s administrative database); a visit corrected HCC index (to reduce the effects of observational intensity on frequency of diagnoses); a poverty index (based on US census); and a population health index (calculated using data on incidence of hip fractures and strokes, and responses from a population based annual survey of health from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention). Results Estimated variation in age, sex, and race adjusted mortality rates across hospital referral regions was reduced using the indices based on population health, poverty, and visit corrected HCC, but increased using the standard HCC index. Most of the residual variation in age, sex, and race adjusted mortality was explained (in terms of weighted R2) by the population health index: R2=0.65. The other indices explained less: R2=0.20 for the visit corrected HCC index; 0.19 for the poverty index, and 0.02 for the standard HCC index. The residual variation in age, sex, race, and price adjusted spending per capita across the 306 hospital referral regions explained by the indices (in terms of weighted R2) were 0.50 for

Monitoring the quality of cardiac surgery based on three or more surgical outcomes using a new variable life-adjusted display.

PubMed

Gan, Fah Fatt; Tang, Xu; Zhu, Yexin; Lim, Puay Weng

2017-06-01

The traditional variable life-adjusted display (VLAD) is a graphical display of the difference between expected and actual cumulative deaths. The VLAD assumes binary outcomes: death within 30 days of an operation or survival beyond 30 days. Full recovery and bedridden for life, for example, are considered the same outcome. This binary classification results in a great loss of information. Although there are many grades of survival, the binary outcomes are commonly used to classify surgical outcomes. Consequently, quality monitoring procedures are developed based on binary outcomes. With a more refined set of outcomes, the sensitivities of these procedures can be expected to improve. A likelihood ratio method is used to define a penalty-reward scoring system based on three or more surgical outcomes for the new VLAD. The likelihood ratio statistic W is based on testing the odds ratio of cumulative probabilities of recovery R. Two methods of implementing the new VLAD are proposed. We accumulate the statistic W-W¯R to estimate the performance of a surgeon where W¯R is the average of the W's of a historical data set. The accumulated sum will be zero based on the historical data set. This ensures that if a new VLAD is plotted for a future surgeon of performance similar to this average performance, the plot will exhibit a horizontal trend. For illustration of the new VLAD, we consider 3-outcome surgical results: death within 30 days, partial and full recoveries. In our first illustration, we show the effect of partial recoveries on surgical results of a surgeon. In our second and third illustrations, the surgical results of two surgeons are compared using both the traditional VLAD based on binary-outcome data and the new VLAD based on 3-outcome data. A reversal in relative performance of surgeons is observed when the new VLAD is used. In our final illustration, we display the surgical results of four surgeons using the new VLAD based completely on 3-outcome data. Full

Computer-aided system of evaluation for population-based all-in-one service screening (CASE-PASS): from study design to outcome analysis with bias adjustment.

PubMed

Chen, Li-Sheng; Yen, Amy Ming-Fang; Duffy, Stephen W; Tabar, Laszlo; Lin, Wen-Chou; Chen, Hsiu-Hsi

2010-10-01

Population-based routine service screening has gained popularity following an era of randomized controlled trials. The evaluation of these service screening programs is subject to study design, data availability, and the precise data analysis for adjusting bias. We developed a computer-aided system that allows the evaluation of population-based service screening to unify these aspects and facilitate and guide the program assessor to efficiently perform an evaluation. This system underpins two experimental designs: the posttest-only non-equivalent design and the one-group pretest-posttest design and demonstrates the type of data required at both the population and individual levels. Three major analyses were developed that included a cumulative mortality analysis, survival analysis with lead-time adjustment, and self-selection bias adjustment. We used SAS AF software to develop a graphic interface system with a pull-down menu style. We demonstrate the application of this system with data obtained from a Swedish population-based service screen and a population-based randomized controlled trial for the screening of breast, colorectal, and prostate cancer, and one service screening program for cervical cancer with Pap smears. The system provided automated descriptive results based on the various sources of available data and cumulative mortality curves corresponding to the study designs. The comparison of cumulative survival between clinically and screen-detected cases without a lead-time adjustment are also demonstrated. The intention-to-treat and noncompliance analysis with self-selection bias adjustments are also shown to assess the effectiveness of the population-based service screening program. Model validation was composed of a comparison between our adjusted self-selection bias estimates and the empirical results on effectiveness reported in the literature. We demonstrate a computer-aided system allowing the evaluation of population-based service screening

Functional form and risk adjustment of hospital costs: Bayesian analysis of a Box-Cox random coefficients model.

PubMed

Hollenbeak, Christopher S

2005-10-15

While risk-adjusted outcomes are often used to compare the performance of hospitals and physicians, the most appropriate functional form for the risk adjustment process is not always obvious for continuous outcomes such as costs. Semi-log models are used most often to correct skewness in cost data, but there has been limited research to determine whether the log transformation is sufficient or whether another transformation is more appropriate. This study explores the most appropriate functional form for risk-adjusting the cost of coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery. Data included patients undergoing CABG surgery at four hospitals in the midwest and were fit to a Box-Cox model with random coefficients (BCRC) using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Marginal likelihoods and Bayes factors were computed to perform model comparison of alternative model specifications. Rankings of hospital performance were created from the simulation output and the rankings produced by Bayesian estimates were compared to rankings produced by standard models fit using classical methods. Results suggest that, for these data, the most appropriate functional form is not logarithmic, but corresponds to a Box-Cox transformation of -1. Furthermore, Bayes factors overwhelmingly rejected the natural log transformation. However, the hospital ranking induced by the BCRC model was not different from the ranking produced by maximum likelihood estimates of either the linear or semi-log model. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Health plans and selection: formal risk adjustment vs. market design and contracts.

PubMed

Frank, R G; Rosenthal, M B

2001-01-01

In this paper, we explore the demand for risk adjustment by health plans that contract with private employers by considering the conditions under which plans might value risk adjustment. Three factors reduce the value of risk adjustment from the plans' point of view. First, only a relatively small segment of privately insured Americans face a choice of competing health plans. Second, health plans share much of their insurance risk with payers, providers, and reinsurers. Third, de facto experience rating that occurs during the premium negotiation process and management of coverage appear to substitute for risk adjustment. While the current environment has not generated much demand for risk adjustment, we reflect on its future potential.

Plasma biomarkers are associated with renal outcomes in individuals with APOL1 risk variants.

PubMed

Nadkarni, Girish N; Chauhan, Kinsuk; Verghese, Divya A; Parikh, Chirag R; Do, Ron; Horowitz, Carol R; Bottinger, Erwin P; Coca, Steven G

2018-04-20

G1/G2 variants in the Apolipoprotein L1 (APOL1) gene are associated with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in people with African ancestry. Plasma biomarkers may have utility for risk stratification in APOL1 high-risk individuals of African ancestry. To evaluate this, we measured tumor necrosis factor receptor 1/2 (TNFR1/2) and kidney injury molecule-1 (KIM1) in baseline plasma specimens from individuals of African ancestry with high-risk APOL1 genotype. Biomarker association with a composite renal outcome of ESRD or 40% sustained decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was then determined and then assessed as improvement in area under curve. Among the 498 participants, the median age was 56 years, 67.7% were female, and the baseline eGFR was 83.3 ml/min/1.73 m 2 with 80 reaching outcome over 5.9 years. TNFR1, TNFR2, and KIM1 at enrollment were independently associated with renal outcome continuously (adjusted hazard ratio 2.0 [95% confidence interval 1.3-3.1]; 1.5 [1.2-1.9]; and 1.6 [1.3-1.9] per doubling in levels, respectively) or by tertiles. The area under the curve significantly improved from 0.75 with the clinical model to 0.79 with the biomarker-enhanced model. The event rate was 40% with all 3 biomarkers elevated (adjusted odds ratio of 5.3 (2.3-12.0) vs. 17% (adjusted odds ratio 1.8 [0.9-3.6] with 1 or 2 elevated and 7% with no biomarkers elevated. Thus, plasma concentrations of TNFR1, TNFR2, and KIM1 are independently associated with renal outcome and improve discrimination or reclassification of African ancestry individuals with a high-risk APOL1 genotype and preserve renal function. Elevation of all markers had higher risk of outcome and can assist with better clinical prediction and improved clinical trial efficiency by enriching event rates. Copyright © 2018 International Society of Nephrology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Validity of the Student Risk Screening Scale: Evidence of Predictive Validity in a Diverse, Suburban Elementary Setting

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Menzies, Holly M.; Lane, Kathleen Lynne

2012-01-01

In this study the authors examined the psychometric properties of the "Student Risk Screening Scale" (SRSS), including predictive validity in terms of student outcomes in behavioral and academic domains. The school, a diverse, suburban school in Southern California, administered the SRSS at three time points as part of regular school…

Effect of Adding McKenzie Syndrome, Centralization, Directional Preference, and Psychosocial Classification Variables to a Risk-Adjusted Model Predicting Functional Status Outcomes for Patients With Lumbar Impairments.

PubMed

Werneke, Mark W; Edmond, Susan; Deutscher, Daniel; Ward, Jason; Grigsby, David; Young, Michelle; McGill, Troy; McClenahan, Brian; Weinberg, Jon; Davidow, Amy L

2016-09-01

Study Design Retrospective cohort. Background Patient-classification subgroupings may be important prognostic factors explaining outcomes. Objectives To determine effects of adding classification variables (McKenzie syndrome and pain patterns, including centralization and directional preference; Symptom Checklist Back Pain Prediction Model [SCL BPPM]; and the Fear-Avoidance Beliefs Questionnaire subscales of work and physical activity) to a baseline risk-adjusted model predicting functional status (FS) outcomes. Methods Consecutive patients completed a battery of questionnaires that gathered information on 11 risk-adjustment variables. Physical therapists trained in Mechanical Diagnosis and Therapy methods classified each patient by McKenzie syndromes and pain pattern. Functional status was assessed at discharge by patient-reported outcomes. Only patients with complete data were included. Risk of selection bias was assessed. Prediction of discharge FS was assessed using linear stepwise regression models, allowing 13 variables to enter the model. Significant variables were retained in subsequent models. Model power (R(2)) and beta coefficients for model variables were estimated. Results Two thousand sixty-six patients with lumbar impairments were evaluated. Of those, 994 (48%), 10 (<1%), and 601 (29%) were excluded due to incomplete psychosocial data, McKenzie classification data, and missing FS at discharge, respectively. The final sample for analyses was 723 (35%). Overall R(2) for the baseline prediction FS model was 0.40. Adding classification variables to the baseline model did not result in significant increases in R(2). McKenzie syndrome or pain pattern explained 2.8% and 3.0% of the variance, respectively. When pain pattern and SCL BPPM were added simultaneously, overall model R(2) increased to 0.44. Although none of these increases in R(2) were significant, some classification variables were stronger predictors compared with some other variables included in

Derivation and Validation of a New Cardiovascular Risk Score for People With Type 2 Diabetes

PubMed Central

Elley, C. Raina; Robinson, Elizabeth; Kenealy, Tim; Bramley, Dale; Drury, Paul L.

2010-01-01

OBJECTIVE To derive a 5-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk equation from usual-care data that is appropriate for people with type 2 diabetes from a wide range of ethnic groups, variable glycemic control, and high rates of albuminuria in New Zealand. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS This prospective open-cohort study used primary-care data from 36,127 people with type 2 diabetes without previous CVD to derive a CVD equation using Cox proportional hazards regression models. Data from 12,626 people from a geographically different area were used for validation. Outcome measure was time to first fatal or nonfatal cardiovascular event, derived from national hospitalization and mortality records. Risk factors were age at diagnosis, diabetes duration, sex, systolic blood pressure, smoking status, total cholesterol–to–HDL ratio, ethnicity, glycated hemoglobin (A1C), and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio. RESULTS Baseline median age was 59 years, 51% were women, 55% were of non-European ethnicity, and 33% had micro- or macroalbuminuria. Median follow-up was 3.9 years (141,169 person-years), including 10,030 individuals followed for at least 5 years. At total of 6,479 first cardiovascular events occurred during follow-up. The 5-year observed risk was 20.8% (95% CI 20.3–21.3). Risk increased with each 1% A1C (adjusted hazard ratio 1.06 [95% CI 1.05–1.08]), when macroalbuminuria was present (2.04 [1.89–2.21]), and in Indo-Asians (1.29 [1.14–1.46]) and Maori (1.23 [1.14–1.32]) compared with Europeans. The derived risk equations performed well on the validation cohort compared with other risk equations. CONCLUSIONS Renal function, ethnicity, and glycemic control contribute significantly to cardiovascular risk prediction. Population-appropriate risk equations can be derived from routinely collected data. PMID:20299482

Bias-adjusted satellite-based rainfall estimates for predicting floods: Narayani Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shrestha, M.S.; Artan, G.A.; Bajracharya, S.R.; Gautam, D.K.; Tokar, S.A.

2011-01-01

In Nepal, as the spatial distribution of rain gauges is not sufficient to provide detailed perspective on the highly varied spatial nature of rainfall, satellite-based rainfall estimates provides the opportunity for timely estimation. This paper presents the flood prediction of Narayani Basin at the Devghat hydrometric station (32000km2) using bias-adjusted satellite rainfall estimates and the Geospatial Stream Flow Model (GeoSFM), a spatially distributed, physically based hydrologic model. The GeoSFM with gridded gauge observed rainfall inputs using kriging interpolation from 2003 was used for calibration and 2004 for validation to simulate stream flow with both having a Nash Sutcliff Efficiency of above 0.7. With the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Centre's rainfall estimates (CPC-RFE2.0), using the same calibrated parameters, for 2003 the model performance deteriorated but improved after recalibration with CPC-RFE2.0 indicating the need to recalibrate the model with satellite-based rainfall estimates. Adjusting the CPC-RFE2.0 by a seasonal, monthly and 7-day moving average ratio, improvement in model performance was achieved. Furthermore, a new gauge-satellite merged rainfall estimates obtained from ingestion of local rain gauge data resulted in significant improvement in flood predictability. The results indicate the applicability of satellite-based rainfall estimates in flood prediction with appropriate bias correction. ?? 2011 The Authors. Journal of Flood Risk Management ?? 2011 The Chartered Institution of Water and Environmental Management.

Quality of pancreatic transplant program assessment using a risk-adjusted cumulative sum chart: experience from a single, small center.

PubMed

Grochowiecki, T; Jakimowicz, T; Grabowska-Derlatka, L; Szmidt, J

2014-10-01

The high rate of complication after pancreas transplantation not only had an impact on recipient quality of life and survival but also had significant financial implications. Thus, monitoring transplant center performance was crucial to indentifying changes in clinical practice that result in quality deterioration. To evaluate retrospectively the quality of the single, small pancreatic transplant program and to establish prospective monitoring of the center using risk-adjusted cumulative sum (CUSUM). From 1988 to 2014, 119 simultaneous pancreas and the kidney transplantations (SPKTx) were performed. The program was divided into 3 eras, based on surgical technique and immunosuppression. Analyses of the 15 fatal outcomes due to complication from pancreatic graft were performed. The risk model was developed using multivariable logistic regression analysis based on retrospective data of 112 SPKTx recipients. The risk-adjusted 1-sided CUSUM chart was plotted for retrospective and prospective events. The upper control limit was set to 2. There were 2 main causes of death: multiorgan failure (73.3%; 11/15) and septic hemorrhage (26.7%; 4/15). Quality analysis using the CUSUM chart revealed that the process was not homogeneous; however, no significant signal of program deterioration was obtained and the performance of the whole program was within the settled control limit. For a single pancreatic transplant center. The risk-adjusted CUSUM chart was a useful tool for quality program assessment. It could support decision making during traditional surgical morbidity and mortality conferences. For small transplant centers, increasing the sensitivity of the CUSUM method by lowering the upper control limit should be considered. However, an individual assessment approach of the for particular centers is recommended.

Patient reported outcomes in GNE myopathy: incorporating a valid assessment of physical function in a rare disease.

PubMed

Slota, Christina; Bevans, Margaret; Yang, Li; Shrader, Joseph; Joe, Galen; Carrillo, Nuria

2018-05-01

The aim of this analysis was to evaluate the psychometric properties of three patient reported outcome (PRO) measures characterizing physical function in GNE myopathy: the Human Activity Profile, the Inclusion Body Myositis Functional Rating Scale, and the Activities-specific Balance Confidence scale. This analysis used data from 35 GNE myopathy subjects participating in a natural history study. For construct validity, correlational and known-group analyses were between the PROs and physical assessments. Reliability of the PROs between baseline and 6 months was evaluated using the intra-class correlation coefficient model; internal consistency was tested with Cronbach's alpha. The hypothesized moderate positive correlations for construct validity were supported; the strongest correlation was between the human activity profile adjusted activity score and the adult myopathy assessment endurance subscale score (r = 0.81; p < 0.0001). The PROs were able to discriminate between known high and low functioning groups for the adult myopathy assessment tool. Internal consistency of the PROs was high (α > 0.8) and there was strong reliability (ICC >0.62). The PROs are valid and reliable measures of physical function in GNE myopathy and should be incorporated in investigations to better understand the impact of progressive muscle weakness on physical function in this rare disease population. Implications for Rehabilitation GNE myopathy is a rare muscle disease that results in slow progressive muscle atrophy and weakness, ultimately leading to wheelchair use and dependence on a caregiver. There is limited knowledge on the impact of this disease on the health-related quality of life, specifically physical function, of this rare disease population. Three patient reported outcomes have been shown to be valid and reliable in GNE myopathy subjects and should be incorporated in future investigations to better understand how progressive muscle weakness impacts physical

Very High-Risk Localized Prostate Cancer: Outcomes Following Definitive Radiation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Narang, Amol K.; Gergis, Carol; Robertson, Scott P.

Purpose: Existing definitions of high-risk prostate cancer consist of men who experience significant heterogeneity in outcomes. As such, criteria that identify a subpopulation of National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) high-risk prostate cancer patients who are at very high risk (VHR) for poor survival outcomes following prostatectomy were recently developed at our institution and include the presence of any of the following disease characteristics: multiple NCCN high-risk factors, primary Gleason pattern 5 disease and/or ≥5 biopsy cores with Gleason sums of 8 to 10. Whether these criteria also apply to men undergoing definitive radiation is unclear, as is the optimal treatment regimenmore » in these patients. Methods and Materials: All men consecutively treated with definitive radiation by a single provider from 1993 to 2006 and who fulfilled criteria for NCCN high-risk disease were identified (n=288), including 99 patients (34%) with VHR disease. Multivariate-adjusted competing risk regression models were constructed to assess associations between the VHR definition and biochemical failure (BF), distant metastasis (DM), and prostate cancer–specific mortality (PCSM). Multivariate-adjusted Cox regression analysis assessed the association of the VHR definition with overall mortality (OM). Cumulative incidences of failure endpoints were compared between VHR men and other NCCN high-risk men. Results: Men with VHR disease compared to other NCCN high-risk men experienced a higher 10-year incidence of BF (54.0% vs 35.4%, respectively, P<.001), DM (34.9% vs 13.4%, respectively, P<.001), PCSM (18.5% vs 5.9%, respectively, P<.001), and OM (36.4% vs 27.0%, respectively, P=.04). VHR men with a detectable prostate-specific antigen (PSA) concentration at the end of radiation (EOR) remained at high risk of 10-year PCSM compared to VHR men with an undetectable EOR PSA (31.0% vs 13.7%, respectively, P=.05). Conclusions: NCCN high-risk prostate cancer patients who meet

Use of multiple cluster analysis methods to explore the validity of a community outcomes concept map.

PubMed

Orsi, Rebecca

2017-02-01

Concept mapping is now a commonly-used technique for articulating and evaluating programmatic outcomes. However, research regarding validity of knowledge and outcomes produced with concept mapping is sparse. The current study describes quantitative validity analyses using a concept mapping dataset. We sought to increase the validity of concept mapping evaluation results by running multiple cluster analysis methods and then using several metrics to choose from among solutions. We present four different clustering methods based on analyses using the R statistical software package: partitioning around medoids (PAM), fuzzy analysis (FANNY), agglomerative nesting (AGNES) and divisive analysis (DIANA). We then used the Dunn and Davies-Bouldin indices to assist in choosing a valid cluster solution for a concept mapping outcomes evaluation. We conclude that the validity of the outcomes map is high, based on the analyses described. Finally, we discuss areas for further concept mapping methods research. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Inclusion of Functional Status Measures in the Risk Adjustment of 30-Day Mortality After Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement: A Report From the Society of Thoracic Surgeons/American College of Cardiology TVT Registry.

PubMed

Arnold, Suzanne V; O'Brien, Sean M; Vemulapalli, Sreekanth; Cohen, David J; Stebbins, Amanda; Brennan, J Matthew; Shahian, David M; Grover, Fred L; Holmes, David R; Thourani, Vinod H; Peterson, Eric D; Edwards, Fred H

2018-03-26

The aim of this study was to develop and validate a risk adjustment model for 30-day mortality after transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) that accounted for both standard clinical factors and pre-procedural health status and frailty. Assessment of risk for TAVR is important both for patient selection and provider comparisons. Prior efforts for risk adjustment have focused on in-hospital mortality, which is easily obtainable but can be biased because of early discharge of ill patients. Using data from patients who underwent TAVR as part of the Society of Thoracic Surgeons/American College of Cardiology TVT (Transcatheter Valve Therapy) Registry (June 2013 to May 2016), a hierarchical logistic regression model to estimate risk for 30-day mortality after TAVR based only on pre-procedural factors and access site was developed and internally validated. The model included factors from the original TVT Registry in-hospital mortality model but added the Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire (health status) and gait speed (5-m walk test). Among 21,661 TAVR patients at 188 sites, 1,025 (4.7%) died within 30 days. Independent predictors of 30-day death included older age, low body weight, worse renal function, peripheral artery disease, home oxygen, prior myocardial infarction, left main coronary artery disease, tricuspid regurgitation, nonfemoral access, worse baseline health status, and inability to walk. The predicted 30-day mortality risk ranged from 1.1% (lowest decile of risk) to 13.8% (highest decile of risk). The model was able to stratify risk on the basis of patient factors with good discrimination (C = 0.71 [derivation], C = 0.70 [split-sample validation]) and excellent calibration, both overall and in key patient subgroups. A clinical risk model was developed for 30-day death after TAVR that included clinical data as well as health status and frailty. This model will facilitate tracking outcomes over time as TAVR expands to lower risk patients and

Risk factors and screening instruments to predict adverse outcomes for undifferentiated older emergency department patients: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Carpenter, Christopher R; Shelton, Erica; Fowler, Susan; Suffoletto, Brian; Platts-Mills, Timothy F; Rothman, Richard E; Hogan, Teresita M

2015-01-01

A significant proportion of geriatric patients experience suboptimal outcomes following episodes of emergency department (ED) care. Risk stratification screening instruments exist to distinguish vulnerable subsets, but their prognostic accuracy varies. This systematic review quantifies the prognostic accuracy of individual risk factors and ED-validated screening instruments to distinguish patients more or less likely to experience short-term adverse outcomes like unanticipated ED returns, hospital readmissions, functional decline, or death. A medical librarian and two emergency physicians conducted a medical literature search of PubMed, EMBASE, SCOPUS, CENTRAL, and ClinicalTrials.gov using numerous combinations of search terms, including emergency medical services, risk stratification, geriatric, and multiple related MeSH terms in hundreds of combinations. Two authors hand-searched relevant specialty society research abstracts. Two physicians independently reviewed all abstracts and used the revised Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies instrument to assess individual study quality. When two or more qualitatively similar studies were identified, meta-analysis was conducted using Meta-DiSc software. Primary outcomes were sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio (LR+), and negative likelihood ratio (LR-) for predictors of adverse outcomes at 1 to 12 months after the ED encounters. A hypothetical test-treatment threshold analysis was constructed based on the meta-analytic summary estimate of prognostic accuracy for one outcome. A total of 7,940 unique citations were identified yielding 34 studies for inclusion in this systematic review. Studies were significantly heterogeneous in terms of country, outcomes assessed, and the timing of post-ED outcome assessments. All studies occurred in ED settings and none used published clinical decision rule derivation methodology. Individual risk factors assessed included dementia, delirium, age, dependency

Group-based parent training programmes for improving emotional and behavioural adjustment in young children.

PubMed

Barlow, Jane; Bergman, Hanna; Kornør, Hege; Wei, Yinghui; Bennett, Cathy

2016-08-01

Emotional and behavioural problems in children are common. Research suggests that parenting has an important role to play in helping children to become well-adjusted, and that the first few months and years are especially important. Parenting programmes may have a role to play in improving the emotional and behavioural adjustment of infants and toddlers, and this review examined their effectiveness with parents and carers of young children. 1. To establish whether group-based parenting programmes are effective in improving the emotional and behavioural adjustment of young children (maximum mean age of three years and 11 months); and2. To assess whether parenting programmes are effective in the primary prevention of emotional and behavioural problems. In July 2015 we searched CENTRAL (the Cochrane Library), Ovid MEDLINE, Embase (Ovid), and 10 other databases. We also searched two trial registers and handsearched reference lists of included studies and relevant systematic reviews. Two reviewers independently assessed the records retrieved by the search. We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and quasi-RCTs of group-based parenting programmes that had used at least one standardised instrument to measure emotional and behavioural adjustment in children. One reviewer extracted data and a second reviewer checked the extracted data. We presented the results for each outcome in each study as standardised mean differences (SMDs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Where appropriate, we combined the results in a meta-analysis using a random-effects model. We used the GRADE (Grades of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation) approach to assess the overall quality of the body of evidence for each outcome. We identified 22 RCTs and two quasi-RCTs evaluating the effectiveness of group-based parenting programmes in improving the emotional and behavioural adjustment of children aged up to three years and 11 months (maximum mean age three years 11 months

Development and Validation of Risk Models to Select Ever-Smokers for CT Lung Cancer Screening.

PubMed

Katki, Hormuzd A; Kovalchik, Stephanie A; Berg, Christine D; Cheung, Li C; Chaturvedi, Anil K

2016-06-07

The US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) recommends computed tomography (CT) lung cancer screening for ever-smokers aged 55 to 80 years who have smoked at least 30 pack-years with no more than 15 years since quitting. However, selecting ever-smokers for screening using individualized lung cancer risk calculations may be more effective and efficient than current USPSTF recommendations. Comparison of modeled outcomes from risk-based CT lung-screening strategies vs USPSTF recommendations. Empirical risk models for lung cancer incidence and death in the absence of CT screening using data on ever-smokers from the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial (PLCO; 1993-2009) control group. Covariates included age; education; sex; race; smoking intensity, duration, and quit-years; body mass index; family history of lung cancer; and self-reported emphysema. Model validation in the chest radiography groups of the PLCO and the National Lung Screening Trial (NLST; 2002-2009), with additional validation of the death model in the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS; 1997-2001), a representative sample of the United States. Models were applied to US ever-smokers aged 50 to 80 years (NHIS 2010-2012) to estimate outcomes of risk-based selection for CT lung screening, assuming screening for all ever-smokers, yield the percent changes in lung cancer detection and death observed in the NLST. Annual CT lung screening for 3 years beginning at age 50 years. For model validity: calibration (number of model-predicted cases divided by number of observed cases [estimated/observed]) and discrimination (area under curve [AUC]). For modeled screening outcomes: estimated number of screen-avertable lung cancer deaths and estimated screening effectiveness (number needed to screen [NNS] to prevent 1 lung cancer death). Lung cancer incidence and death risk models were well calibrated in PLCO and NLST. The lung cancer death model calibrated and discriminated well for US

Further validation of the Internet-based Dementia Risk Assessment.

PubMed

Brandt, Jason; Blehar, Justin; Anderson, Allan; Gross, Alden L

2014-01-01

Most approaches to the detection of presymptomatic or prodromal Alzheimer's disease require the costly collection and analysis of biological samples or neuroimaging measurements. The Dementia Risk Assessment (DRA) was developed to facilitate this detection by collecting self-report and proxy-report of dementia risk variables and episodic memory performance on a free Internet website. We now report two validation studies. In Study 1, 130 community-residing older adults seeking memory screening at senior health fairs were tested using the Mini-Cog, and were then observed while taking the DRA. They were compared to a demographically-matched subsample from our anonymous Internet sample. Participants seeking memory screening had more dementia risk factors and obtained lower scores on the DRA's recognition memory test (RMT) than their Internet controls. In addition, those who failed the Mini-Cog obtained much lower scores on the RMT than those who passed the Mini-Cog. In Study 2, 160 older adults seeking evaluation of cognitive difficulties took the DRA prior to diagnostic evaluations at outpatient dementia clinics. Patients who ultimately received the diagnosis of a dementia syndrome scored significantly lower on the RMT than those diagnosed with other conditions or deemed normal. Lower education, family history of dementia, presence of hypercholesterolemia and diabetes, and memory test score distinguished the dementia and no-dementia groups with around 82% accuracy. In addition, score on the RMT correlated highly with scores on other instruments widely used to detect cognitive decline. These findings support the concurrent validity of the DRA for detecting prevalent cognitive impairment. Prospective studies of cognitively normal persons who subsequently develop dementia will be necessary to establish its predictive validity.

Development and validation of a melanoma risk score based on pooled data from 16 case-control studies

PubMed Central

Davies, John R; Chang, Yu-mei; Bishop, D Timothy; Armstrong, Bruce K; Bataille, Veronique; Bergman, Wilma; Berwick, Marianne; Bracci, Paige M; Elwood, J Mark; Ernstoff, Marc S; Green, Adele; Gruis, Nelleke A; Holly, Elizabeth A; Ingvar, Christian; Kanetsky, Peter A; Karagas, Margaret R; Lee, Tim K; Le Marchand, Loïc; Mackie, Rona M; Olsson, Håkan; Østerlind, Anne; Rebbeck, Timothy R; Reich, Kristian; Sasieni, Peter; Siskind, Victor; Swerdlow, Anthony J; Titus, Linda; Zens, Michael S; Ziegler, Andreas; Gallagher, Richard P.; Barrett, Jennifer H; Newton-Bishop, Julia

2015-01-01

Background We report the development of a cutaneous melanoma risk algorithm based upon 7 factors; hair colour, skin type, family history, freckling, nevus count, number of large nevi and history of sunburn, intended to form the basis of a self-assessment webtool for the general public. Methods Predicted odds of melanoma were estimated by analysing a pooled dataset from 16 case-control studies using logistic random coefficients models. Risk categories were defined based on the distribution of the predicted odds in the controls from these studies. Imputation was used to estimate missing data in the pooled datasets. The 30th, 60th and 90th centiles were used to distribute individuals into four risk groups for their age, sex and geographic location. Cross-validation was used to test the robustness of the thresholds for each group by leaving out each study one by one. Performance of the model was assessed in an independent UK case-control study dataset. Results Cross-validation confirmed the robustness of the threshold estimates. Cases and controls were well discriminated in the independent dataset (area under the curve 0.75, 95% CI 0.73-0.78). 29% of cases were in the highest risk group compared with 7% of controls, and 43% of controls were in the lowest risk group compared with 13% of cases. Conclusion We have identified a composite score representing an estimate of relative risk and successfully validated this score in an independent dataset. Impact This score may be a useful tool to inform members of the public about their melanoma risk. PMID:25713022

Development and validation of the ORACLE score to predict risk of osteoporosis.

PubMed

Richy, Florent; Deceulaer, Fréderic; Ethgen, Olivier; Bruyère, Olivier; Reginster, Jean-Yves

2004-11-01

To develop and validate a composite index, the Osteoporosis Risk Assessment by Composite Linear Estimate (ORACLE), that includes risk factors and ultrasonometric outcomes to screen for osteoporosis. Two cohorts of postmenopausal women aged 45 years and older participated in the development (n = 407) and the validation (n = 202) of ORACLE. Their bone mineral density was determined by dual energy x-ray absorptiometry and quantitative ultrasonometry (QUS), and their historical and clinical risk factors were assessed (January to June 2003). Logistic regression analysis was used to select significant predictors of bone mineral density, whereas receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was used to assess the discriminatory performance of ORACLE. The final logistic regression model retained 4 biometric or historical variables and 1 ultrasonometric outcome. The ROC areas under the curves (AUCs) for ORACLE were 84% for the prediction of osteoporosis and 78% for low bone mass. A sensitivity of 90% corresponded to a specificity of 50% for identification of women at risk of developing osteoporosis. The corresponding positive and negative predictive values were 86% and 54%, respectively, in the development cohort. In the validation cohort, the AUCs for identification of osteoporosis and low bone mass were 81% and 76% for ORACLE, 69% and 64% for QUS T score, 71% and 68% for QUS ultrasonometric bone profile index, and 76% and 75% for Osteoporosis Self-assessment Tool, respectively. ORACLE had the best discriminatory performance in identifying osteoporosis compared with the other approaches (P < .05). ORACLE exhibited the highest discriminatory properties compared with ultrasonography alone or other previously validated risk indices. It may be helpful to enhance the predictive value of QUS.

Montreal Accord on Patient-Reported Outcomes (PROs) use series-Paper 7: modern perspectives of measurement validation emphasize justification of inferences based on patient reported outcome scores.

PubMed

Sawatzky, Richard; Chan, Eric K H; Zumbo, Bruno D; Ahmed, Sara; Bartlett, Susan J; Bingham, Clifton O; Gardner, William; Jutai, Jeffrey; Kuspinar, Ayse; Sajobi, Tolulope; Lix, Lisa M

2017-09-01

Obtaining the patient's view about the outcome of care is an essential component of patient-centered care. Many patient-reported outcome (PRO) instruments for different purposes have been developed since the 1960s. Measurement validation is fundamental in the development, evaluation, and use of PRO instruments. This paper provides a review of modern perspectives of measurement validation in relation to the followings three questions as applied to PROs: (1) What evidence is needed to warrant comparisons between groups and individuals? (2) What evidence is needed to warrant comparisons over time? and (3) What are the value implications, including personal and societal consequences, of using PRO scores? Measurement validation is an ongoing process that involves the accumulation of evidence regarding the justification of inferences, actions, and decisions based on measurement scores. These include inferences pertaining to comparisons between groups and comparisons over time as well as consideration of value implications of using PRO scores. Personal and societal consequences must be examined as part of a comprehensive approach to measurement validation. The answers to these three questions are fundamental to the the validity of different types of inferences, actions, and decisions made on PRO scores in health research, health care administration, and clinical practice. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Using chronic disease risk factors to adjust Medicare capitation payments

PubMed Central

Schauffler, Helen Halpin; Howland, Jonathan; Cobb, Janet

1992-01-01

This study evaluates the use of risk factors for chronic disease as health status adjusters for Medicare's capitation formula, the average adjusted per capita costs (AAPCC). Risk factor data for the surviving members of the Framingham Study cohort who were examined in 1982-83 were merged with 100 percent Medicare payment data for 1984 and 1985, matching on Social Security number and sex. Seven different AAPCC models were estimated to assess the independent contributions of risk factors and measures of prior utilization and disability in increasing the explanatory power of AAPCC. The findings suggest that inclusion of risk factors for chronic disease as health status adjusters can improve substantially the predictive accuracy of AAPCC. PMID:10124441

Proposal for risk-based scientific approach on full and partial validation for general changes in bioanalytical method.

PubMed

Mochizuki, Ayumi; Ieki, Katsunori; Kamimori, Hiroshi; Nagao, Akemi; Nakai, Keiko; Nakayama, Akira; Nanba, Eitaro

2018-04-01

The guidance and several guidelines on bioanalytical method validation, which were issued by the US FDA, EMA and Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, list the 'full' validation parameters; however, none of these provide any details for 'partial' validation. Japan Bioanalysis Forum approved a total of three annual discussion groups from 2012 to 2014. In the discussion groups, members from pharmaceutical companies and contract research organizations discussed the details of partial validation from a risk assessment viewpoint based on surveys focusing on bioanalysis of small molecules using LC-MS/MS in Japan. This manuscript presents perspectives and recommendations for most conceivable changes that can be made to full and partial validations by members of the discussion groups based on their experiences and discussions at the Japan Bioanalysis Forum Symposium.

The PER (Preoperative Esophagectomy Risk) Score: A Simple Risk Score to Predict Short-Term and Long-Term Outcome in Patients with Surgically Treated Esophageal Cancer.

PubMed

Reeh, Matthias; Metze, Johannes; Uzunoglu, Faik G; Nentwich, Michael; Ghadban, Tarik; Wellner, Ullrich; Bockhorn, Maximilian; Kluge, Stefan; Izbicki, Jakob R; Vashist, Yogesh K

2016-02-01

Esophageal resection in patients with esophageal cancer (EC) is still associated with high mortality and morbidity rates. We aimed to develop a simple preoperative risk score for the prediction of short-term and long-term outcomes for patients with EC treated by esophageal resection. In total, 498 patients suffering from esophageal carcinoma, who underwent esophageal resection, were included in this retrospective cohort study. Three preoperative esophagectomy risk (PER) groups were defined based on preoperative functional evaluation of different organ systems by validated tools (revised cardiac risk index, model for end-stage liver disease score, and pulmonary function test). Clinicopathological parameters, morbidity, and mortality as well as disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) were correlated to the PER score. The PER score significantly predicted the short-term outcome of patients with EC who underwent esophageal resection. PER 2 and PER 3 patients had at least double the risk of morbidity and mortality compared to PER 1 patients. Furthermore, a higher PER score was associated with shorter DFS (P < 0.001) and OS (P < 0.001). The PER score was identified as an independent predictor of tumor recurrence (hazard ratio [HR] 2.1; P < 0.001) and OS (HR 2.2; P < 0.001). The PER score allows preoperative objective allocation of patients with EC into different risk categories for morbidity, mortality, and long-term outcomes. Thus, multicenter studies are needed for independent validation of the PER score.

45 CFR 153.365 - General oversight requirements for State-operated risk adjustment programs.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... risk adjustment programs. 153.365 Section 153.365 Public Welfare Department of Health and Human Services REQUIREMENTS RELATING TO HEALTH CARE ACCESS STANDARDS RELATED TO REINSURANCE, RISK CORRIDORS, AND RISK ADJUSTMENT UNDER THE AFFORDABLE CARE ACT State Standards Related to the Risk Adjustment Program...

Single-joint outcome measures: preliminary validation of patient-reported outcomes and physical examination.

PubMed

Heald, Alison E; Fudman, Edward J; Anklesaria, Pervin; Mease, Philip J

2010-05-01

To assess the validity, responsiveness, and reliability of single-joint outcome measures for determining target joint (TJ) response in patients with inflammatory arthritis. Patient-reported outcomes (PRO), consisting of responses to single questions about TJ global status on a 100-mm visual analog scale (VAS; TJ global score), function on a 100-mm VAS (TJ function score), and pain on a 5-point Likert scale (TJ pain score) were piloted in 66 inflammatory arthritis subjects in a phase 1/2 clinical study of an intraarticular gene transfer agent and compared to physical examination measures (TJ swelling, TJ tenderness) and validated function questionnaires (Disabilities of the Arm, Shoulder and Hand scale, Rheumatoid Arthritis Outcome Score, and the Health Assessment Questionnaire). Construct validity was assessed by evaluating the correlation between the single-joint outcome measures and validated function questionnaires using Spearman's rank correlation. Responsiveness or sensitivity to change was assessed through calculating effect size and standardized response means (SRM). Reliability of physical examination measures was assessed by determining interobserver agreement. The single-joint PRO were highly correlated with each other and correlated well with validated functional measures. The TJ global score exhibited modest effect size and modest SRM that correlated well with the patient's assessment of response on a 100-mm VAS. Physical examination measures exhibited high interrater reliability, but correlated less well with validated functional measures and the patient's assessment of response. Single-joint PRO, particularly the TJ global score, are simple to administer and demonstrate construct validity and responsiveness in patients with inflammatory arthritis. (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT00126724).

Evaluation of the ProPublica Surgeon Scorecard "Adjusted Complication Rate" Measure Specifications.

PubMed

Ban, Kristen A; Cohen, Mark E; Ko, Clifford Y; Friedberg, Mark W; Stulberg, Jonah J; Zhou, Lynn; Hall, Bruce L; Hoyt, David B; Bilimoria, Karl Y

2016-10-01

The ProPublica Surgeon Scorecard is the first nationwide, multispecialty public reporting of individual surgeon outcomes. However, ProPublica's use of a previously undescribed outcome measure (composite of in-hospital mortality or 30-day related readmission) and inclusion of only inpatients have been questioned. Our objectives were to (1) determine the proportion of cases excluded by ProPublica's specifications, (2) assess the proportion of inpatient complications excluded from ProPublica's measure, and (3) examine the validity of ProPublica's outcome measure by comparing performance on the measure to well-established postoperative outcome measures. Using ACS-NSQIP data (2012-2014) for 8 ProPublica procedures and for All Operations, the proportion of cases meeting all ProPublica inclusion criteria was determined. We assessed the proportion of complications occurring inpatient, and thus not considered by ProPublica's measure. Finally, we compared risk-adjusted performance based on ProPublica's measure specifications to established ACS-NSQIP outcome measure performance (eg, death/serious morbidity, mortality). ProPublica's inclusion criteria resulted in elimination of 82% of all operations from assessment (range: 42% for total knee arthroplasty to 96% for laparoscopic cholecystectomy). For all ProPublica operations combined, 84% of complications occur during inpatient hospitalization (range: 61% for TURP to 88% for total hip arthroplasty), and are thus missed by the ProPublica measure. Hospital-level performance on the ProPublica measure correlated weakly with established complication measures, but correlated strongly with readmission (R = 0.834, P < 0.001). ProPublica's outcome measure specifications exclude 82% of cases, miss 84% of postoperative complications, and correlate poorly with well-established postoperative outcomes. Thus, the validity of the ProPublica Surgeon Scorecard is questionable.

Children's Adjustment Following Divorce: Risk and Resilience Perspectives.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kelly, Joan B.; Emery, Robert E.

2003-01-01

Reviews the empirical literature on the longer-term adjustment of children of divorce from the perspective of (a) the stressors and elevated risks that divorce presents for children and (b) protective factors associated with better adjustment. The resiliency demonstrated by the majority of children is discussed, as are controversies regarding the…

External model validation of binary clinical risk prediction models in cardiovascular and thoracic surgery.

PubMed

Hickey, Graeme L; Blackstone, Eugene H

2016-08-01

Clinical risk-prediction models serve an important role in healthcare. They are used for clinical decision-making and measuring the performance of healthcare providers. To establish confidence in a model, external model validation is imperative. When designing such an external model validation study, thought must be given to patient selection, risk factor and outcome definitions, missing data, and the transparent reporting of the analysis. In addition, there are a number of statistical methods available for external model validation. Execution of a rigorous external validation study rests in proper study design, application of suitable statistical methods, and transparent reporting. Copyright © 2016 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

PACE and the Medicare+Choice risk-adjusted payment model.

PubMed

Temkin-Greener, H; Meiners, M R; Gruenberg, L

2001-01-01

This paper investigates the impact of the Medicare principal inpatient diagnostic cost group (PIP-DCG) payment model on the Program of All-Inclusive Care for the Elderly (PACE). Currently, more than 6,000 Medicare beneficiaries who are nursing home certifiable receive care from PACE, a program poised for expansion under the Balanced Budget Act of 1997. Overall, our analysis suggests that the application of the PIP-DCG model to the PACE program would reduce Medicare payments to PACE, on average, by 38%. The PIP-DCG payment model bases its risk adjustment on inpatient diagnoses and does not capture adequately the risk of caring for a population with functional impairments.

Validation of the CRASH model in the prediction of 18-month mortality and unfavorable outcome in severe traumatic brain injury requiring decompressive craniectomy.

PubMed

Honeybul, Stephen; Ho, Kwok M; Lind, Christopher R P; Gillett, Grant R

2014-05-01

The goal in this study was to assess the validity of the corticosteroid randomization after significant head injury (CRASH) collaborators prediction model in predicting mortality and unfavorable outcome at 18 months in patients with severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) requiring decompressive craniectomy. In addition, the authors aimed to assess whether this model was well calibrated in predicting outcome across a wide spectrum of severity of TBI requiring decompressive craniectomy. This prospective observational cohort study included all patients who underwent a decompressive craniectomy following severe TBI at the two major trauma hospitals in Western Australia between 2004 and 2012 and for whom 18-month follow-up data were available. Clinical and radiological data on initial presentation were entered into the Web-based model and the predicted outcome was compared with the observed outcome. In validating the CRASH model, the authors used area under the receiver operating characteristic curve to assess the ability of the CRASH model to differentiate between favorable and unfavorable outcomes. The ability of the CRASH 6-month unfavorable prediction model to differentiate between unfavorable and favorable outcomes at 18 months after decompressive craniectomy was good (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.85, 95% CI 0.80-0.90). However, the model's calibration was not perfect. The slope and the intercept of the calibration curve were 1.66 (SE 0.21) and -1.11 (SE 0.14), respectively, suggesting that the predicted risks of unfavorable outcomes were not sufficiently extreme or different across different risk strata and were systematically too high (or overly pessimistic), respectively. The CRASH collaborators prediction model can be used as a surrogate index of injury severity to stratify patients according to injury severity. However, clinical decisions should not be based solely on the predicted risks derived from the model, because the number of

Twins' risk of childhood asthma mediated by gestational age and birthweight.

PubMed

Ullemar, V; Lundholm, C; Almqvist, C

2015-08-01

Children born with low gestational age (GA) or low birthweight (BW) are at increased risk of asthma. Twins as compared to singletons are on average more likely to be born with lower GA and BW and have been hypothesized to comprise a high-risk population for asthma. Many previous studies have not accounted for potential confounders or mediators. To investigate the association between twinship and childhood asthma or early life wheeze and identify potential mediators, such as GA/BW. The study population consisted of two cohorts including all children born in Sweden from 1 January 1993 to 1 June 2001 (n = 756,363 singletons, n = 22,478 twins) and 1 July 2005 to 31 December 2009 (n = 456,239 singletons, n = 12,872 twins). Asthma was defined using validated register-based outcomes of diagnosis or medication. The data were analysed using logistic (older cohort) and Cox regression (younger cohort). Adjusted models incorporated potential confounding or mediating factors including gestational age and birthweight. In the younger cohort, the crude hazard ratio (HR) of asthma medication after 1.5 years of age was 1.12 (95% CI 1.01-1.23), and fully adjusted HR was 0.80, 95% CI 0.72-0.89. Crude HR of asthma diagnosis in the same age group was 1.14 (95% CI 0.99-1.30), fully adjusted 0.78 (0.68-0.98). Adjusted analyses in the older group yielded similar results. Twins were at significantly higher unadjusted risk of asthma or early life wheeze compared to singletons in the younger, but not in the older cohort. Associations attenuated following adjustment for GA/BW, suggesting that GA/BW mediates the effect of twinship on asthma risk. After adjustments, twins were at lower risk of asthma outcomes, possibly due to unmeasured confounding. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Validation of alternative indicators of social support in perinatal outcomes research using quality of the partner relationship.

PubMed

Kruse, Julie A; Low, Lisa Kane; Seng, Julia S

2013-07-01

To test alternatives to the current research and clinical practice of assuming that married or partnered status is a proxy for positive social support. Having a partner is assumed to relate to better health status via the intermediary process of social support. However, women's health research indicates that having a partner is not always associated with positive social support. An exploratory post hoc analysis focused on posttraumatic stress and childbearing was conducted using a large perinatal database from 2005-2009. To operationalize partner relationship, four variables were analysed: partner ('yes' or 'no'), intimate partner violence ('yes' or 'no'), the combination of those two factors, and the woman's appraisal of the quality of her partner relationship via a single item. Construct validity of these four alternative variables was assessed in relation to appraisal of the partner's social support in labour and the postpartum using linear regression standardized betas and adjusted R-squares. Predictive validity was assessed using unadjusted and adjusted linear regression modelling. Four groups were compared. Married, abused women differed most from married, not abused women in relation to the social support, and depression outcomes used for validity checks. The variable representing the women's appraisals of their partner relationships accounts for the most variance in predicting depression scores. Our results support the validity of operationalizing the impact of the partner relationship on outcomes using a combination of partnered status and abuse status or using a subjective rating of quality of the partner relationship. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Antipsychotics and mortality: adjusting for mortality risk scores to address confounding by terminal illness.

PubMed

Park, Yoonyoung; Franklin, Jessica M; Schneeweiss, Sebastian; Levin, Raisa; Crystal, Stephen; Gerhard, Tobias; Huybrechts, Krista F

2015-03-01

To determine whether adjustment for prognostic indices specifically developed for nursing home (NH) populations affect the magnitude of previously observed associations between mortality and conventional and atypical antipsychotics. Cohort study. A merged data set of Medicaid, Medicare, Minimum Data Set (MDS), Online Survey Certification and Reporting system, and National Death Index for 2001 to 2005. Dual-eligible individuals aged 65 and older who initiated antipsychotic treatment in a NH (N=75,445). Three mortality risk scores (Mortality Risk Index Score, Revised MDS Mortality Risk Index, Advanced Dementia Prognostic Tool) were derived for each participant using baseline MDS data, and their performance was assessed using c-statistics and goodness-of-fit tests. The effect of adjusting for these indices in addition to propensity scores (PSs) on the association between antipsychotic medication and mortality was evaluated using Cox models with and without adjustment for risk scores. Each risk score showed moderate discrimination for 6-month mortality, with c-statistics ranging from 0.61 to 0.63. There was no evidence of lack of fit. Imbalances in risk scores between conventional and atypical antipsychotic users, suggesting potential confounding, were much lower within PS deciles than the imbalances in the full cohort. Accounting for each score in the Cox model did not change the relative risk estimates: 2.24 with PS-only adjustment versus 2.20, 2.20, and 2.22 after further adjustment for the three risk scores. Although causality cannot be proven based on nonrandomized studies, this study adds to the body of evidence rejecting explanations other than causality for the greater mortality risk associated with conventional antipsychotics than with atypical antipsychotics. © 2015, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2015, The American Geriatrics Society.

Personalized Prediction of Psychosis: External validation of the NAPLS2 Psychosis Risk Calculator with the EDIPPP project

PubMed Central

Carrión, Ricardo E.; Cornblatt, Barbara A.; Burton, Cynthia Z.; Tso, Ivy F; Auther, Andrea; Adelsheim, Steven; Calkins, Roderick; Carter, Cameron S.; Niendam, Tara; Taylor, Stephan F.; McFarlane, William R.

2016-01-01

Objective In the current issue, Cannon and colleagues, as part of the second phase of the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study (NAPLS2), report on a risk calculator for the individualized prediction of developing a psychotic disorder in a 2-year period. The present study represents an external validation of the NAPLS2 psychosis risk calculator using an independent sample of subjects at clinical high risk for psychosis collected as part of the Early Detection, Intervention, and Prevention of Psychosis Program (EDIPPP). Methods 176 subjects with follow-up (from the total EDIPPP sample of 210) rated as clinical high-risk (CHR) based on the Structured Interview for Prodromal Syndromes were used to construct a new prediction model with the 6 significant predictor variables in the NAPLS2 psychosis risk calculator (unusual thoughts, suspiciousness, Symbol Coding, verbal learning, social functioning decline, baseline age, and family history). Discrimination performance was assessed with the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC). The NAPLS2 risk calculator was then used to generate a psychosis risk estimate for each case in the external validation sample. Results The external validation model showed good discrimination, with an AUC of 79% (95% CI 0.644–0.937). In addition, the personalized risk generated by the NAPLS calculator provided a solid estimation of the actual conversion outcome in the validation sample. Conclusions In the companion papers in this issue, two independent samples of CHR subjects converge to validate the NAPLS2 psychosis risk calculator. This prediction calculator represents a meaningful step towards early intervention and personalized treatment of psychotic disorders. PMID:27363511

A simplified approach to the pooled analysis of calibration of clinical prediction rules for systematic reviews of validation studies

PubMed Central

Dimitrov, Borislav D; Motterlini, Nicola; Fahey, Tom

2015-01-01

Objective Estimating calibration performance of clinical prediction rules (CPRs) in systematic reviews of validation studies is not possible when predicted values are neither published nor accessible or sufficient or no individual participant or patient data are available. Our aims were to describe a simplified approach for outcomes prediction and calibration assessment and evaluate its functionality and validity. Study design and methods: Methodological study of systematic reviews of validation studies of CPRs: a) ABCD2 rule for prediction of 7 day stroke; and b) CRB-65 rule for prediction of 30 day mortality. Predicted outcomes in a sample validation study were computed by CPR distribution patterns (“derivation model”). As confirmation, a logistic regression model (with derivation study coefficients) was applied to CPR-based dummy variables in the validation study. Meta-analysis of validation studies provided pooled estimates of “predicted:observed” risk ratios (RRs), 95% confidence intervals (CIs), and indexes of heterogeneity (I2) on forest plots (fixed and random effects models), with and without adjustment of intercepts. The above approach was also applied to the CRB-65 rule. Results Our simplified method, applied to ABCD2 rule in three risk strata (low, 0–3; intermediate, 4–5; high, 6–7 points), indicated that predictions are identical to those computed by univariate, CPR-based logistic regression model. Discrimination was good (c-statistics =0.61–0.82), however, calibration in some studies was low. In such cases with miscalibration, the under-prediction (RRs =0.73–0.91, 95% CIs 0.41–1.48) could be further corrected by intercept adjustment to account for incidence differences. An improvement of both heterogeneities and P-values (Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test) was observed. Better calibration and improved pooled RRs (0.90–1.06), with narrower 95% CIs (0.57–1.41) were achieved. Conclusion Our results have an immediate clinical

Risk strata-based therapy and outcome in stage Ib-IIa carcinoma cervix: single-centre ten-year experience.

PubMed

Kundargi, Rajshekar S; Guruprasad, B; Rathod, Praveen Shankar; Shakuntala, Pn; Shobha, K; Pallavi, Vr; Uma Devi, K; Bafna, Ud

2013-01-01

To review the outcome of stage (Ib, IIa), cervical cancer patients were primarily treated with radical hysterectomy and risk-based postoperative therapy. Between January 2001 and December 2011, 601 cases underwent surgery followed by tailored therapy. Patients were classified into low risk (pelvic lymph node negative, tumour less than 4 cm, no evidence of lympho-vascular invasion, less than one-third of thickness of surgical stoma involved), intermediate risk (positive lympho-vascular space invasion, tumour size more than 4 cm, and deep invasion of cervical stroma), and high risk (pelvic lymph node involved, positive parametrial, or vaginal margins) groups. Postoperative adju-vant therapy in the form of radiotherapy alone to those with intermediate risk and chemo-radiotherapy to those with high risk was given to patients. The median follow-up was 60 months. The majority of patients had intermediate risk. The overall event-free survival (EFS) at five years was 74.37%, with EFS of 86.5% in those from the low-risk group, 73% in those from the intermediate-risk group, and 64% in those from the high-risk group. In conclusion, risk strata-based adjuvant postoperative therapy is able to provide a favourable outcome in patients with stage Ib-IIa cervical cancer with a nearly 11% improvement in survival compared with historical control.

Web-based tool for dynamic functional outcome after acute ischemic stroke and comparison with existing models.

PubMed

Ji, Ruijun; Du, Wanliang; Shen, Haipeng; Pan, Yuesong; Wang, Penglian; Liu, Gaifen; Wang, Yilong; Li, Hao; Zhao, Xingquan; Wang, Yongjun

2014-11-25

Acute ischemic stroke (AIS) is one of the leading causes of death and adult disability worldwide. In the present study, we aimed to develop a web-based risk model for predicting dynamic functional status at discharge, 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year after acute ischemic stroke (Dynamic Functional Status after Acute Ischemic Stroke, DFS-AIS). The DFS-AIS was developed based on the China National Stroke Registry (CNSR), in which eligible patients were randomly divided into derivation (60%) and validation (40%) cohorts. Good functional outcome was defined as modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score ≤ 2 at discharge, 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year after AIS, respectively. Independent predictors of each outcome measure were obtained using multivariable logistic regression. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and plot of observed and predicted risk were used to assess model discrimination and calibration. A total of 12,026 patients were included and the median age was 67 (interquartile range: 57-75). The proportion of patients with good functional outcome at discharge, 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year after AIS was 67.9%, 66.5%, 66.9% and 66.9%, respectively. Age, gender, medical history of diabetes mellitus, stroke or transient ischemic attack, current smoking and atrial fibrillation, pre-stroke dependence, pre-stroke statins using, admission National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score, admission blood glucose were identified as independent predictors of functional outcome at different time points after AIS. The DFS-AIS was developed from sets of predictors of mRS ≤ 2 at different time points following AIS. The DFS-AIS demonstrated good discrimination in the derivation and validation cohorts (AUROC range: 0.837-0.845). Plots of observed versus predicted likelihood showed excellent calibration in the derivation and validation cohorts (all r = 0.99, P < 0.001). When compared to 8 existing models, the DFS-AIS showed significantly

HIV-Risk Index: Development and Validation of a Brief Risk Index for Hispanic Young People.

PubMed

Ballester-Arnal, Rafael; Gil-Llario, María Dolores; Castro-Calvo, Jesús; Giménez-García, Cristina

2016-08-01

The prevalence of HIV risk behaviors among young people facilitates the spread of HIV, in particular regarding unsafe sex behavior, although this trend is different within this population. For this reason, identifying the riskier young population is required to prevent HIV infection. The main purpose of this study was to develop and validate a risk index to assess the different sexual HIV risk exposure among Hispanic Young people. For this purpose, 9861 Spanish young people were randomly distributed into two groups (derivation and validation group). According to the results, the factor analyses grouped the nine items of the HIV- risk index into two factors (factor 1, direct sexual risk indicators and factor 2, indirect sexual risk indicators) with an equal structure for men and women by a multi-group confirmatory factor analysis. The variance explained was 54.26 %. Moreover, the Cronbach's alpha coefficient revealed high internal reliability (α = .79) and the convergent validity supported its evidence based on different HIV risk indexes. Therefore, the HIV-risk index seem to be a rigorous and valid measure to estimate HIV risk exposure among young people.

Validity of the T-ACE in pregnancy in predicting child outcome and risk drinking.

PubMed

Chiodo, Lisa M; Sokol, Robert J; Delaney-Black, Virginia; Janisse, James; Hannigan, John H

2010-01-01

Preventing fetal alcohol spectrum disorders (FASDs) requires detection of in-pregnancy maternal risk drinking. The widely used T-ACE screen has been applied in various ways, although the impact of those different uses on effectiveness is uncertain. We examined relations among different T-ACE scoring criteria, maternal drinking, and child outcome. Self-reported across-pregnancy maternal drinking was assessed in 75 African-American women. The different T-ACE criteria used varied the level of drinking that defined tolerance (two or three drinks) and the total T-ACE score cut-points (two or three). Receiver operator curves and regression analysis assessed the significance of relations. Increasing the total T-ACE score cut-point to 3 almost doubled specificity in detecting risk drinking whereas maintaining adequate sensitivity, equivalent to that in the original report, and identified substantially more neurobehavioral deficits in children. Redefining tolerance at three drinks did not improve T-ACE effectiveness in predicting outcomes. This study is among the first to show the ability of an in-pregnancy T-ACE assessment to predict child neurodevelopmental outcome. In addition, increasing the total T-ACE score criterion (from 2 to 3) improved identification of non-drinking mothers and unaffected children with little loss in detection of drinkers and affected children. Efficient in-pregnancy screens for risk drinking afford greater opportunities for intervention that could prevent/limit FASDs. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Outcome after surgical or conservative management of cerebral cavernous malformations.

PubMed

Moultrie, Fiona; Horne, Margaret A; Josephson, Colin B; Hall, Julie M; Counsell, Carl E; Bhattacharya, Jo J; Papanastassiou, Vakis; Sellar, Robin J; Warlow, Charles P; Murray, Gordon D; Al-Shahi Salman, Rustam

2014-08-12

There have been few comparative studies of microsurgical excision vs conservative management of cerebral cavernous malformations (CCM) and none of them has reliably demonstrated a statistically and clinically significant difference. We conducted a prospective, population-based study to identify and independently validate definite CCM diagnoses first made in 1999-2003 in Scottish adult residents. We used multiple sources of prospective follow-up to assess adults' dependence and to identify and independently validate outcome events. We used univariate and multivariable survival analyses to test the influence of CCM excision on outcome, adjusted for prognostic factors and baseline imbalances. Of 134 adults, 25 underwent CCM excision; these adults were younger (34 vs 43 years at diagnosis, p = 0.004) and more likely to present with symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage or focal neurologic deficit than adults managed conservatively (48% vs 26%; odds ratio 2.7, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.1-6.5). During 5 years of follow-up, CCM excision was associated with a deterioration to an Oxford Handicap Scale score 2-6 sustained over at least 2 successive years (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 2.2, 95% CI 1.1-4.3) and the occurrence of symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage or new focal neurologic deficit (adjusted HR 3.6, 95% CI 1.3-10.0). CCM excision was associated with worse outcomes over 5 years compared to conservative management. Long-term follow-up will determine whether this difference is sustained over patients' lifetimes. Meanwhile, a randomized controlled trial appears justified. This study provides Class III evidence that CCM excision worsens short-term disability scores and increases the risk of symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage and new focal neurologic deficits. © 2014 American Academy of Neurology.

Urine Injury Biomarkers and Risk of Adverse Outcomes in Recipients of Prevalent Kidney Transplants: The Folic Acid for Vascular Outcome Reduction in Transplantation Trial

PubMed Central

Carpenter, Myra A.; Weiner, Daniel E.; Levey, Andrew S.; Pfeffer, Marc; Kusek, John W.; Cai, Jianwen; Hunsicker, Lawrence G.; Park, Meyeon; Bennett, Michael; Liu, Kathleen D.; Hsu, Chi-yuan

2016-01-01

Recipients of kidney transplants (KTR) are at increased risk for cardiovascular events, graft failure, and death. It is unknown whether urine kidney injury biomarkers are associated with poor outcomes among KTRs. We conducted a post hoc analysis of the Folic Acid for Vascular Outcome Reduction in Transplantation (FAVORIT) Trial using a case-cohort study design, selecting participants with adjudicated cardiovascular events, graft failure, or death. Urine neutrophil gelatinase–associated lipocalin (NGAL), kidney injury molecule-1 (KIM-1), IL-18, and liver–type fatty acid binding protein (L-FABP) were measured in spot urine samples and standardized to urine creatinine concentration. We adjusted for demographics, cardiovascular risk factors, eGFR, and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio. Patients had 291 cardiovascular events, 257 graft failure events, and 359 deaths. Each log increase in urine NGAL/creatinine independently associated with a 24% greater risk of cardiovascular events (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.24; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.06 to 1.45), a 40% greater risk of graft failure (aHR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.16 to 1.68), and a 44% greater risk of death (aHR, 1.44; 95% CI, 1.26 to 1.65). Urine KIM-1/creatinine and IL-18/creatinine independently associated with greater risk of death (aHR, 1.29; 95% CI, 1.03 to 1.61 and aHR, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.04 to 1.49 per log increase, respectively) but not with risk of cardiovascular events or graft failure. Urine L-FABP did not associate with any study outcomes. In conclusion, among prevalent KTRs, higher urine NGAL, KIM-1, and IL-18 levels independently and differentially associated with greater risk of adverse outcomes. PMID:26538631

Neuroanatomical Predictors of Functional Outcome in Individuals at Ultra-High Risk for Psychosis

PubMed Central

Lin, Ashleigh; Yung, Alison R.; Koutsouleris, Nikolaos; Nelson, Barnaby; Cropley, Vanessa L.; Velakoulis, Dennis; McGorry, Patrick D.; Pantelis, Christos; Wood, Stephen J.

2017-01-01

Abstract Most individuals at ultra-high risk (UHR) for psychosis do not transition to frank illness. Nevertheless, many have poor clinical outcomes and impaired psychosocial functioning. This study used voxel-based morphometry to investigate if baseline grey and white matter brain densities at identification as UHR were associated with functional outcome at medium- to long-term follow-up. Participants were help-seeking UHR individuals (n = 109, 54M:55F) who underwent magnetic resonance imaging at baseline; functional outcome was assessed an average of 9.2 years later. Primary analysis showed that lower baseline grey matter density, but not white matter density, in bilateral frontal and limbic areas, and left cerebellar declive were associated with poorer functional outcome (Social and Occupational Functioning Assessment Scale [SOFAS]). These findings were independent of transition to psychosis or persistence of the at-risk mental state. Similar regions were significantly associated with lower self-reported levels of social functioning and increased negative symptoms at follow-up. Exploratory analyses showed that lower baseline grey matter densities in middle and inferior frontal gyri were significantly associated with decline in Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF) score over follow-up. There was no association between baseline grey matter density and IQ or positive symptoms at follow-up. The current findings provide novel evidence that those with the poorest functional outcomes have the lowest grey matter densities at identification as UHR, regardless of transition status or persistence of the at-risk mental state. Replication and validation of these findings may allow for early identification of poor functional outcome and targeted interventions. PMID:27369472

A longitudinal high-risk study of adolescent anxiety, depression and parent-severity on the developmental course of risk-adjustment.

PubMed

Rawal, Adhip; Riglin, Lucy; Ng-Knight, Terry; Collishaw, Stephan; Thapar, Anita; Rice, Frances

2014-11-01

Adolescence is associated with developments in the reward system and increased rates of emotional disorders. Familial risk for depression may be associated with disruptions in the reward system. However, it is unclear how symptoms of depression and anxiety influence the development of reward-processing over adolescence and whether variation in the severity of parental depression is associated with hyposensitivity to reward in a high-risk sample. We focused on risk-adjustment (adjusting decisions about reward according to the probability of obtaining reward) as this was hypothesized to improve over adolescence. In a one-year longitudinal sample (N = 197) of adolescent offspring of depressed parents, we examined how symptoms of depression and anxiety (generalized anxiety and social anxiety) influenced the development of risk-adjustment. We also examined how parental depression severity influenced adolescent risk-adjustment. Risk-adjustment improved over the course of the study indicating improved adjustment of reward-seeking to shifting contingencies. Depressive symptoms were associated with decreases in risk-adjustment over time while social anxiety symptoms were associated with increases in risk-adjustment over time. Specifically, depression was associated with reductions in reward-seeking at favourable reward probabilities only, whereas social anxiety (but not generalized anxiety) led to reductions in reward-seeking at low reward probabilities only. Parent depression severity was associated with lowered risk-adjustment in offspring and also influenced the longitudinal relationship between risk-adjustment and offspring depression. Anxiety and depression distinctly alter the pattern of longitudinal change in reward-processing. Severity of parent depression was associated with alterations in adolescent offspring reward-processing in a high-risk sample. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of

Population-based absolute risk estimation with survey data

PubMed Central

Kovalchik, Stephanie A.; Pfeiffer, Ruth M.

2013-01-01

Absolute risk is the probability that a cause-specific event occurs in a given time interval in the presence of competing events. We present methods to estimate population-based absolute risk from a complex survey cohort that can accommodate multiple exposure-specific competing risks. The hazard function for each event type consists of an individualized relative risk multiplied by a baseline hazard function, which is modeled nonparametrically or parametrically with a piecewise exponential model. An influence method is used to derive a Taylor-linearized variance estimate for the absolute risk estimates. We introduce novel measures of the cause-specific influences that can guide modeling choices for the competing event components of the model. To illustrate our methodology, we build and validate cause-specific absolute risk models for cardiovascular and cancer deaths using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Our applications demonstrate the usefulness of survey-based risk prediction models for predicting health outcomes and quantifying the potential impact of disease prevention programs at the population level. PMID:23686614

The Ostomy Adjustment Scale: translation into Norwegian language with validation and reliability testing.

PubMed

Indrebø, Kirsten Lerum; Andersen, John Roger; Natvig, Gerd Karin

2014-01-01

The purpose of this study was to adapt the Ostomy Adjustment Scale to a Norwegian version and to assess its construct validity and 2 components of its reliability (internal consistency and test-retest reliability). One hundred fifty-eight of 217 patients (73%) with a colostomy, ileostomy, or urostomy participated in the study. Slightly more than half (56%) were men. Their mean age was 64 years (range, 26-91 years). All respondents had undergone ostomy surgery at least 3 months before participation in the study. The Ostomy Adjustment Scale was translated into Norwegian according to standard procedures for forward and backward translation. The questionnaire was sent to the participants via regular post. The Cronbach alpha and test-retest were computed to assess reliability. Construct validity was evaluated via correlations between each item and score sums; correlations were used to analyze relationships between the Ostomy Adjustment Scale and the 36-item Short Form Health Survey, the Quality of Life Scale, the Hospital Anxiety & Depression Scale, and the General Self-Efficacy Scale. The Cronbach alpha was 0.93, and test-retest reliability r was 0.69. The average correlation quotient item to sum score was 0.49 (range, 0.31-0.73). Results showed moderate negative correlations between the Ostomy Adjustment Scale and the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (-0.37 and -0.40), and moderate positive correlations between the Ostomy Adjustment Scale and the 36-item Short Form Health Survey, the Quality of Life Scale, and the General Self-Efficacy Scale (0.30-0.45) with the exception of the pain domain in the Short Form 36 (0.28). Regression analysis showed linear associations between the Ostomy Adjustment Scale and sociodemographic and clinical variables with the exception of education. The Norwegian language version of the Ostomy Adjustment Scale was found to possess construct validity, along with internal consistency and test-retest reliability. The instrument is

School-age outcomes of infants at risk for autism spectrum disorder.

PubMed

Miller, Meghan; Iosif, Ana-Maria; Young, Gregory S; Hill, Monique; Phelps Hanzel, Elise; Hutman, Ted; Johnson, Scott; Ozonoff, Sally

2016-06-01

Studies of infants at risk for autism spectrum disorder (ASD) have proliferated, but few of these samples have been followed longer-term. We conducted a follow-up study, at age 5.5-9 years, of younger siblings of children with ASD (high-risk group, n = 79) or typical development (low-risk group, n = 60), originally recruited as infants. Children with ASD were excluded because of the focus on understanding the range of non-ASD outcomes among high-risk siblings. Using examiner ratings, parent ratings, and standardized assessments, we evaluated differences in clinical outcomes, psychopathology symptoms, autism symptoms, language skills, and nonverbal cognitive abilities. After adjusting for covariates, the high-risk group had increased odds of any clinically elevated/impaired score across measures relative to the low-risk group (43% vs. 12%, respectively). The high-risk group also had increased odds of examiner-rated Clinical Concerns (CC) outcomes (e.g., ADHD concerns, broader autism phenotype, speech-language difficulties, anxiety/mood problems, learning problems) relative to the low-risk group (38% vs. 13%, respectively). The high-risk group with CC outcomes had higher parent-reported psychopathology and autism symptoms, and lower directly-assessed language skills, than the Low-Risk Typically Developing (TD) and High-Risk TD groups, which did not differ. There were no differences in nonverbal cognitive skills. For some in the high-risk group, clinical concerns persisted from early childhood, whereas for others clinical concerns were first evident at school-age. Results suggest continued vulnerability in at least a subgroup of school-age children with a family history of ASD and suggest that this population may benefit from continued screening and monitoring into the school-age years. Autism Res 2016, 9: 632-642. © 2015 International Society for Autism Research, Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2015 International Society for Autism Research, Wiley Periodicals

Risk of Adverse Pregnancy Outcomes among Women Practicing Poor Sanitation in Rural India: A Population-Based Prospective Cohort Study.

PubMed

Padhi, Bijaya K; Baker, Kelly K; Dutta, Ambarish; Cumming, Oliver; Freeman, Matthew C; Satpathy, Radhanatha; Das, Bhabani S; Panigrahi, Pinaki

2015-07-01

The importance of maternal sanitation behaviour during pregnancy for birth outcomes remains unclear. Poor sanitation practices can promote infection and induce stress during pregnancy and may contribute to adverse pregnancy outcomes (APOs). We aimed to assess whether poor sanitation practices were associated with increased risk of APOs such as preterm birth and low birth weight in a population-based study in rural India. A prospective cohort of pregnant women (n = 670) in their first trimester of pregnancy was enrolled and followed until birth. Socio-demographic, clinical, and anthropometric factors, along with access to toilets and sanitation practices, were recorded at enrolment (12th week of gestation). A trained community health volunteer conducted home visits to ensure retention in the study and learn about study outcomes during the course of pregnancy. Unadjusted odds ratios (ORs) and adjusted odds ratios (AORs) and 95% confidence intervals for APOs were estimated by logistic regression models. Of the 667 women who were retained at the end of the study, 58.2% practiced open defecation and 25.7% experienced APOs, including 130 (19.4%) preterm births, 95 (14.2%) births with low birth weight, 11 (1.7%) spontaneous abortions, and six (0.9%) stillbirths. Unadjusted ORs for APOs (OR: 2.53; 95% CI: 1.72-3.71), preterm birth (OR: 2.36; 95% CI: 1.54-3.62), and low birth weight (OR: 2.00; 95% CI: 1.24-3.23) were found to be significantly associated with open defecation practices. After adjustment for potential confounders such as maternal socio-demographic and clinical factors, open defecation was still significantly associated with increased odds of APOs (AOR: 2.38; 95% CI: 1.49-3.80) and preterm birth (AOR: 2.22; 95% CI: 1.29-3.79) but not low birth weight (AOR: 1.61; 95% CI: 0.94-2.73). The association between APOs and open defecation was independent of poverty and caste. Even though we accounted for several key confounding factors in our estimates, the possibility

Frequency, Risk Factors, and Adverse Fetomaternal Outcomes of Placenta Previa in Northern Tanzania

PubMed Central

Senkoro, Elizabeth Eliet; Mwanamsangu, Amasha H.; Chuwa, Fransisca Seraphin; Msuya, Sia Emmanuel; Mnali, Oresta Peter

2017-01-01

Background and Objective. Placenta previa (PP) is a potential risk factor for obstetric hemorrhage, which is a major cause of fetomaternal morbidity and mortality in developing countries. This study aimed to determine frequency, risk factors, and adverse fetomaternal outcomes of placenta previa in Northern Tanzania. Methodology. A retrospective cohort study was conducted using maternally-linked data from Kilimanjaro Christian Medical Centre birth registry spanning 2000 to 2015. All women who gave birth to singleton infants were studied. Adjusted odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals for risk factors and adverse fetomaternal outcomes associated with PP were estimated in multivariable logistic regression models. Result. A total of 47,686 singleton deliveries were analyzed. Of these, the frequency of PP was 0.6%. Notable significant risk factors for PP included gynecological diseases, alcohol consumption during pregnancy, malpresentation, and gravidity ≥5. Adverse maternal outcomes were postpartum haemorrhage, antepartum haemorrhage, and Caesarean delivery. PP increased odds of fetal Malpresentation and early neonatal death. Conclusion. The prevalence of PP was comparable to that found in past research. Multiple independent risk factors were identified. PP was found to have associations with several adverse fetomaternal outcomes. Early identification of women at risk of PP may help clinicians prevent such complications. PMID:28321338

Gaming in risk-adjusted mortality rates: effect of misclassification of risk factors in the benchmarking of cardiac surgery risk-adjusted mortality rates.

PubMed

Siregar, Sabrina; Groenwold, Rolf H H; Versteegh, Michel I M; Noyez, Luc; ter Burg, Willem Jan P P; Bots, Michiel L; van der Graaf, Yolanda; van Herwerden, Lex A

2013-03-01

Upcoding or undercoding of risk factors could affect the benchmarking of risk-adjusted mortality rates. The aim was to investigate the effect of misclassification of risk factors on the benchmarking of mortality rates after cardiac surgery. A prospective cohort was used comprising all adult cardiac surgery patients in all 16 cardiothoracic centers in The Netherlands from January 1, 2007, to December 31, 2009. A random effects model, including the logistic European system for cardiac operative risk evaluation (EuroSCORE) was used to benchmark the in-hospital mortality rates. We simulated upcoding and undercoding of 5 selected variables in the patients from 1 center. These patients were selected randomly (nondifferential misclassification) or by the EuroSCORE (differential misclassification). In the random patients, substantial misclassification was required to affect benchmarking: a 1.8-fold increase in prevalence of the 4 risk factors changed an underperforming center into an average performing one. Upcoding of 1 variable required even more. When patients with the greatest EuroSCORE were upcoded (ie, differential misclassification), a 1.1-fold increase was sufficient: moderate left ventricular function from 14.2% to 15.7%, poor left ventricular function from 8.4% to 9.3%, recent myocardial infarction from 7.9% to 8.6%, and extracardiac arteriopathy from 9.0% to 9.8%. Benchmarking using risk-adjusted mortality rates can be manipulated by misclassification of the EuroSCORE risk factors. Misclassification of random patients or of single variables will have little effect. However, limited upcoding of multiple risk factors in high-risk patients can greatly influence benchmarking. To minimize "gaming," the prevalence of all risk factors should be carefully monitored. Copyright © 2013 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk-adjusted antibiotic consumption in 34 public acute hospitals in Ireland, 2006 to 2014

PubMed Central

Oza, Ajay; Donohue, Fionnuala; Johnson, Howard; Cunney, Robert

2016-01-01

As antibiotic consumption rates between hospitals can vary depending on the characteristics of the patients treated, risk-adjustment that compensates for the patient-based variation is required to assess the impact of any stewardship measures. The aim of this study was to investigate the usefulness of patient-based administrative data variables for adjusting aggregate hospital antibiotic consumption rates. Data on total inpatient antibiotics and six broad subclasses were sourced from 34 acute hospitals from 2006 to 2014. Aggregate annual patient administration data were divided into explanatory variables, including major diagnostic categories, for each hospital. Multivariable regression models were used to identify factors affecting antibiotic consumption. Coefficient of variation of the root mean squared errors (CV-RMSE) for the total antibiotic usage model was very good (11%), however, the value for two of the models was poor (> 30%). The overall inpatient antibiotic consumption increased from 82.5 defined daily doses (DDD)/100 bed-days used in 2006 to 89.2 DDD/100 bed-days used in 2014; the increase was not significant after risk-adjustment. During the same period, consumption of carbapenems increased significantly, while usage of fluoroquinolones decreased. In conclusion, patient-based administrative data variables are useful for adjusting hospital antibiotic consumption rates, although additional variables should also be employed. PMID:27541730

A New Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FREM) Based on Public Health Registries.

PubMed

Rubin, Katrine Hass; Möller, Sören; Holmberg, Teresa; Bliddal, Mette; Søndergaard, Jens; Abrahamsen, Bo

2018-06-20

Some conditions are already known to be associated with increased risk of osteoporotic fractures. Other conditions may also be significant indicators of increased risk. The aim of the study was to identify conditions for inclusion in a fracture prediction model (FREM - Fracture Risk Evaluation Model) for automated case finding of high-risk individuals of hip or major osteoporotic fractures (MOF). We included the total population in Denmark aged 45+ years (N= 2,495,339). All hospital diagnoses from 1998 to 2012 were used as possible conditions and the primary outcome was MOF during 2013. Our cohort was split randomly 50-50 into a development and a validation dataset for deriving and validating the predictive model. We applied backward selection on ICD-10 codes by logistic regression to develop an age-adjusted and sex-stratified model. FREM for MOF included 38 and 43 risk factors for women and men, respectively. Testing FREM for MOF in the validation cohort showed good accuracy as it produced ROC curves with an AUC of 0.750 (95% CI 0.741, 0.795) and 0.752 (95% CI 0.743, 0.761) for women and men, respectively FREM for hip fractures included 32 risk factors for both genders and showed an even higher accuracy in the validation cohort as AUC of 0.874 (95% CI 0.869, 0.879) and 0.851 (95% CI 0.841, 0.861) for women and men was found. We have developed and tested a prediction model (FREM) for identifying men and women at high risk of MOF or hip fractures by using solely existing administrative data. FREM could be employed either at the point of care integrated into Electronic Patient Record systems to alert physicians or deployed centrally in a national case finding strategy where patients at high fracture risk could be invited to a focused DXA program. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Noninvasive Computed Tomography-based Risk Stratification of Lung Adenocarcinomas in the National Lung Screening Trial.

PubMed

Maldonado, Fabien; Duan, Fenghai; Raghunath, Sushravya M; Rajagopalan, Srinivasan; Karwoski, Ronald A; Garg, Kavita; Greco, Erin; Nath, Hrudaya; Robb, Richard A; Bartholmai, Brian J; Peikert, Tobias

2015-09-15

Screening for lung cancer using low-dose computed tomography (CT) reduces lung cancer mortality. However, in addition to a high rate of benign nodules, lung cancer screening detects a large number of indolent cancers that generally belong to the adenocarcinoma spectrum. Individualized management of screen-detected adenocarcinomas would be facilitated by noninvasive risk stratification. To validate that Computer-Aided Nodule Assessment and Risk Yield (CANARY), a novel image analysis software, successfully risk stratifies screen-detected lung adenocarcinomas based on clinical disease outcomes. We identified retrospective 294 eligible patients diagnosed with lung adenocarcinoma spectrum lesions in the low-dose CT arm of the National Lung Screening Trial. The last low-dose CT scan before the diagnosis of lung adenocarcinoma was analyzed using CANARY blinded to clinical data. Based on their parametric CANARY signatures, all the lung adenocarcinoma nodules were risk stratified into three groups. CANARY risk groups were compared using survival analysis for progression-free survival. A total of 294 patients were included in the analysis. Kaplan-Meier analysis of all the 294 adenocarcinoma nodules stratified into the Good, Intermediate, and Poor CANARY risk groups yielded distinct progression-free survival curves (P < 0.0001). This observation was confirmed in the unadjusted and adjusted (age, sex, race, and smoking status) progression-free survival analysis of all stage I cases. CANARY allows the noninvasive risk stratification of lung adenocarcinomas into three groups with distinct post-treatment progression-free survival. Our results suggest that CANARY could ultimately facilitate individualized management of incidentally or screen-detected lung adenocarcinomas.

[Usefulness of scoring risk for adverse outcomes in older patients with the Identification of Seniors at Risk scale and the Triage Risk Screening Tool: a meta-analysis].

PubMed

Rivero-Santana, Amado; Del Pino-Sedeño, Tasmania; Ramallo-Fariña, Yolanda; Vergara, Itziar; Serrano-Aguilar, Pedro

2017-02-01

A considerable proportion of the geriatric population experiences unfavorable outcomes of hospital emergency department care. An assessment of risk for adverse outcomes would facilitate making changes in clinical management by adjusting available resources to needs according to an individual patient's risk. Risk assessment tools are available, but their prognostic precision varies. This systematic review sought to quantify the prognostic precision of 2 geriatric screening and risk assessment tools commonly used in emergency settings for patients at high risk of adverse outcomes (revisits, functional deterioration, readmissions, or death): the Identification of Seniors at Risk (ISAR) scale and the Triage Risk Screening Tool (TRST). We searched PubMed, EMBASE, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and SCOPUS, with no date limits, to find relevant studies. Quality was assessed with the QUADAS-2 checklist (for quality assessment of diagnostic accuracy studies). We pooled data for prognostic yield reported for the ISAR and TRST scores for each short- and medium-term outcome using bivariate random-effects modeling. The sensitivity of the ISAR scoring system as a whole ranged between 67% and 99%; specificity fell between 21% and 41%. TRST sensitivity ranged between 52% and 75% and specificity between 39% and 51%.We conclude that the tools currently used to assess risk of adverse outcomes in patients of advanced age attended in hospital emergency departments do not have adequate prognostic precision to be clinically useful.

Understanding Interrater Reliability and Validity of Risk Assessment Tools Used to Predict Adverse Clinical Events.

PubMed

Siedlecki, Sandra L; Albert, Nancy M

This article will describe how to assess interrater reliability and validity of risk assessment tools, using easy-to-follow formulas, and to provide calculations that demonstrate principles discussed. Clinical nurse specialists should be able to identify risk assessment tools that provide high-quality interrater reliability and the highest validity for predicting true events of importance to clinical settings. Making best practice recommendations for assessment tool use is critical to high-quality patient care and safe practices that impact patient outcomes and nursing resources. Optimal risk assessment tool selection requires knowledge about interrater reliability and tool validity. The clinical nurse specialist will understand the reliability and validity issues associated with risk assessment tools, and be able to evaluate tools using basic calculations. Risk assessment tools are developed to objectively predict quality and safety events and ultimately reduce the risk of event occurrence through preventive interventions. To ensure high-quality tool use, clinical nurse specialists must critically assess tool properties. The better the tool's ability to predict adverse events, the more likely that event risk is mediated. Interrater reliability and validity assessment is relatively an easy skill to master and will result in better decisions when selecting or making recommendations for risk assessment tool use.

Impact of Psychosocial Risk on Outcomes among Families Seeking Treatment for Obesity.

PubMed

Phan, Thao-Ly T; Chen, Fang Fang; Pinto, Alison Taggi; Cox, Courtney; Robbins, Jennifer; Kazak, Anne E

2018-04-02

To test the hypothesis that children with elevated psychosocial risk would have increased attrition and worse weight outcomes in weight management treatment. This was a prospective cohort study of 100 new patients, aged 4-12 years, in a weight management clinic. Parents completed the Psychosocial Assessment Tool. Logistic regression analyses were conducted to calculate the odds of attrition from the clinic and a nonmeaningful change in body mass index (BMI) z-score (ie, <0.1 unit decrease in BMI z-score) over a 6-month period based on psychosocial risk category, adjusting for child demographics and baseline weight category. The majority of patients were male (59%), black (36%) or white (43%), and had severe obesity (55%), and 59% of families were categorized as having moderate or high psychosocial risk. Over the 6-month period, 53% of families were lost to follow-up, and 67% did not have a clinically meaningful decrease in BMI z-score. Compared with children of families with low psychosocial risk, children of families with moderate or high psychosocial risk were 3.1 times (95% CI, 1.3-7.2 times) more likely to be lost to follow-up and 2.9 times (95% CI, 1.1-7.9 times) more likely to have a non-clinically meaningful change in BMI z-score. Children presenting with increased psychosocial risk have higher attrition and poorer weight outcomes, supporting the need for psychosocial screening as a standard component of pediatric weight management treatment. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Durations of second stage of labor and pushing, and adverse neonatal outcomes: a population-based cohort study

PubMed Central

Sandström, A; Altman, M; Cnattingius, S; Johansson, S; Ahlberg, M; Stephansson, O

2017-01-01

Objective: The associations between duration of second stage of labor, pushing time and risk of adverse neonatal outcomes are not fully established. Therefore, we aimed to examine such relationships. Study design: A population-based cohort study including 42 539 nulliparous women with singleton infants born in cephalic presentation at ⩾37 gestational weeks, using the Stockholm-Gotland Obstetric Cohort, Sweden, and the Swedish Neonatal Quality Register, 2008 to 2013. Poisson regression was used to analyze estimated adjusted relative risks (RRs), with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Outcome measures were umbilical artery acidosis (pH <7.05 and base excess <−12), birth asphyxia-related complications (including any of the following conditions: hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy, hypothermia treatment, neonatal seizures, meconium aspiration syndrome or advanced resuscitation after birth) and admission to neonatal intensive care unit (NICU). Results: Overall rates of umbilical artery acidosis, birth asphyxia-related complications and admission to NICU were 1.08, 0.63 and 6.42%, respectively. Rate of birth asphyxia-related complications gradually increased with duration of second stage: from 0.42% at <1 h to 1.29% at ≥4 h (adjusted RR 2.46 (95% CI 1.66 to 3.66)). For admission to NICU, corresponding rates were 4.97 and 9.45%, and adjusted RR (95% CI) was 1.80 (95% CI 1.58 to 2.04). Compared with duration of pushing <15 min, a duration of pushing ⩾60 min increased rates of acidosis from 0.57 to 1.69% (adjusted RR 2.55 (95% CI 1.51 to 4.30)). Conclusion: Prolonged durations of second stage of labor and pushing are associated with increased RRs of adverse neonatal outcomes. Clinical assessment of fetal well-being is essential when durations of second stage and pushing increases. PMID:27929527

Durations of second stage of labor and pushing, and adverse neonatal outcomes: a population-based cohort study.

PubMed

Sandström, A; Altman, M; Cnattingius, S; Johansson, S; Ahlberg, M; Stephansson, O

2017-03-01

The associations between duration of second stage of labor, pushing time and risk of adverse neonatal outcomes are not fully established. Therefore, we aimed to examine such relationships. A population-based cohort study including 42 539 nulliparous women with singleton infants born in cephalic presentation at ⩾37 gestational weeks, using the Stockholm-Gotland Obstetric Cohort, Sweden, and the Swedish Neonatal Quality Register, 2008 to 2013. Poisson regression was used to analyze estimated adjusted relative risks (RRs), with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Outcome measures were umbilical artery acidosis (pH <7.05 and base excess <-12), birth asphyxia-related complications (including any of the following conditions: hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy, hypothermia treatment, neonatal seizures, meconium aspiration syndrome or advanced resuscitation after birth) and admission to neonatal intensive care unit (NICU). Overall rates of umbilical artery acidosis, birth asphyxia-related complications and admission to NICU were 1.08, 0.63 and 6.42%, respectively. Rate of birth asphyxia-related complications gradually increased with duration of second stage: from 0.42% at <1 h to 1.29% at ≥4 h (adjusted RR 2.46 (95% CI 1.66 to 3.66)). For admission to NICU, corresponding rates were 4.97 and 9.45%, and adjusted RR (95% CI) was 1.80 (95% CI 1.58 to 2.04). Compared with duration of pushing <15 min, a duration of pushing ⩾60 min increased rates of acidosis from 0.57 to 1.69% (adjusted RR 2.55 (95% CI 1.51 to 4.30)). Prolonged durations of second stage of labor and pushing are associated with increased RRs of adverse neonatal outcomes. Clinical assessment of fetal well-being is essential when durations of second stage and pushing increases.

Quality-of-life-adjusted hazard of death: a formulation of the quality-adjusted life-years model of use in benefit-risk assessment.

PubMed

Garcia-Hernandez, Alberto

2014-03-01

Although the quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) model is standard in health technology assessment, quantitative methods are less frequent but increasingly used for benefit-risk assessment (BRA) at earlier stages of drug development. A frequent challenge when implementing metrics for BRA is to weigh the importance of effects on a chronic condition against the risk of severe events during the trial. The lifetime component of the QALY model has a counterpart in the BRA context, namely, the risk of dying during the study. A new concept is presented, the hazard of death function that a subject is willing to accept instead of the baseline hazard to improve his or her chronic health status, which we have called the quality-of-life-adjusted hazard of death. It has been proven that if assumptions of the linear QALY model hold, the excess mortality rate tolerated by a subject for a chronic health improvement is inversely proportional to the mean residual life. This result leads to a new representation of the linear QALY model in terms of hazard rate functions and allows utilities obtained by using standard methods involving trade-offs of life duration to be translated into thresholds of tolerated mortality risk during a short period of time, thereby avoiding direct trade-offs using small probabilities of events during the study, which is known to lead to bias and variability. Copyright © 2014 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Validation of PROMIS ® Physical Function computerized adaptive tests for orthopaedic foot and ankle outcome research.

PubMed

Hung, Man; Baumhauer, Judith F; Latt, L Daniel; Saltzman, Charles L; SooHoo, Nelson F; Hunt, Kenneth J

2013-11-01

In 2012, the American Orthopaedic Foot & Ankle Society(®) established a national network for collecting and sharing data on treatment outcomes and improving patient care. One of the network's initiatives is to explore the use of computerized adaptive tests (CATs) for patient-level outcome reporting. We determined whether the CAT from the NIH Patient Reported Outcome Measurement Information System(®) (PROMIS(®)) Physical Function (PF) item bank provides efficient, reliable, valid, precise, and adequately covered point estimates of patients' physical function. After informed consent, 288 patients with a mean age of 51 years (range, 18-81 years) undergoing surgery for common foot and ankle problems completed a web-based questionnaire. Efficiency was determined by time for test administration. Reliability was assessed with person and item reliability estimates. Validity evaluation included content validity from expert review and construct validity measured against the PROMIS(®) Pain CAT and patient responses based on tradeoff perceptions. Precision was assessed by standard error of measurement (SEM) across patients' physical function levels. Instrument coverage was based on a person-item map. Average time of test administration was 47 seconds. Reliability was 0.96 for person and 0.99 for item. Construct validity against the Pain CAT had an r value of -0.657 (p < 0.001). Precision had an SEM of less than 3.3 (equivalent to a Cronbach's alpha of ≥ 0.90) across a broad range of function. Concerning coverage, the ceiling effect was 0.32% and there was no floor effect. The PROMIS(®) PF CAT appears to be an excellent method for measuring outcomes for patients with foot and ankle surgery. Further validation of the PROMIS(®) item banks may ultimately provide a valid and reliable tool for measuring patient-reported outcomes after injuries and treatment.

Validation of an imaging based cardiovascular risk score in a Scottish population.

PubMed

Kockelkoren, Remko; Jairam, Pushpa M; Murchison, John T; Debray, Thomas P A; Mirsadraee, Saeed; van der Graaf, Yolanda; Jong, Pim A de; van Beek, Edwin J R

2018-01-01

A radiological risk score that determines 5-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk using routine care CT and patient information readily available to radiologists was previously developed. External validation in a Scottish population was performed to assess the applicability and validity of the risk score in other populations. 2915 subjects aged ≥40 years who underwent routine clinical chest CT scanning for non-cardiovascular diagnostic indications were followed up until first diagnosis of, or death from, CVD. Using a case-cohort approach, all cases and a random sample of 20% of the participant's CT examinations were visually graded for cardiovascular calcifications and cardiac diameter was measured. The radiological risk score was determined using imaging findings, age, gender, and CT indication. Performance on 5-year CVD risk prediction was assessed. 384 events occurred in 2124 subjects during a mean follow-up of 4.25 years (0-6.4 years). The risk score demonstrated reasonable performance in the studied population. Calibration showed good agreement between actual and 5-year predicted risk of CVD. The c-statistic was 0.71 (95%CI:0.67-0.75). The radiological CVD risk score performed adequately in the Scottish population offering a potential novel strategy for identifying patients at high risk for developing cardiovascular disease using routine care CT data. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Risk adjusting community rated health plan premiums: a survey of risk assessment literature and policy applications.

PubMed

Giacomini, M; Luft, H S; Robinson, J C

1995-01-01

This paper surveys recent health care reform debates and empirical evidence regarding the potential role for risk adjusters in addressing the problem of competitive risk segmentation under capitated financing. We discuss features of health plan markets affecting risk selection, methodological considerations in measuring it, and alternative approaches to financial correction for risk differentials. The appropriate approach to assessing risk differences between health plans depends upon the nature of market risk selection allowed under a given reform scenario. Because per capita costs depend on a health plan's population risk, efficiency, and quality of service, risk adjustment will most strongly promote efficiency in environments with commensurately strong incentives for quality care.