Long-term trend analysis on total and extreme precipitation over Shasta Dam watershed.

PubMed

Toride, Kinya; Cawthorne, Dylan L; Ishida, Kei; Kavvas, M Levent; Anderson, Michael L

2018-06-01

California's interconnected water system is one of the most advanced water management systems in the world, and understanding of long-term trends in atmospheric and hydrologic behavior has increasingly being seen as vital to its future well-being. Knowledge of such trends is hampered by the lack of long-period observation data and the uncertainty surrounding future projections of atmospheric models. This study examines historical precipitation trends over the Shasta Dam watershed (SDW), which lies upstream of one of the most important components of California's water system, Shasta Dam, using a dynamical downscaling methodology that can produce atmospheric data at fine time-space scales. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is employed to reconstruct 159years of long-term hourly precipitation data at 3km spatial resolution over SDW using the 20th Century Reanalysis Version 2c dataset. Trend analysis on this data indicates a significant increase in total precipitation as well as a growing intensity of extreme events such as 1, 6, 12, 24, 48, and 72-hour storms over the period of 1851 to 2010. The turning point of the increasing trend and no significant trend periods is found to be 1940 for annual precipitation and the period of 1950 to 1960 for extreme precipitation using the sequential Mann-Kendall test. Based on these analysis, we find the trends at the regional scale do not necessarily apply to the watershed-scale. The sharp increase in the variability of annual precipitation since 1970s is also detected, which implies an increase in the occurrence of extreme wet and dry conditions. These results inform long-term planning decisions regarding the future of Shasta Dam and California's water system. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Long-term trends in height growth of jack pine in North Central Ontario

Treesearch

J.C.G. Goelz; T.E. Burk

1998-01-01

Although most investigations of long-term growth trends of trees involve description of radial growth of trees, investigation of height growth of dominant and codominant trees also warrants attention for two significant reasons -- the dependent variable is largely independent of stand density and it represents an index of stand productivity. Residuals from a height...

On long-term ozone trends at Hohenpeissenberg

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Claude, H.; Vandersee, W.; Wege, K.

1994-01-01

More than 2000 ozone soundings and a large number of Dobson observations have been performed since 1967 in a unique procedure. The achieved very homogeneous data sets were used to evaluate significant long-term trends both in the troposphere and the stratosphere. The trend amounts to about plus 2 percent per year in the troposphere and to about minus 0.5 percent per year in the stratosphere. Extremely low ozone records obtained during winter 1991/92 are discussed in the light of the long term series. The winter mean of the ozone column is the lowest one of the series. The ozone deficit occurred mainly in the lower stratosphere. One cause may be the Pinatubo cloud. Even compared with the extreme winter mean following the El Chichon eruption the ozone content was lower. Additionally ozone was reduced by dynamical effects due to unusual weather situations.

The Electrification of Energy: Long-Term Trends and Opportunities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tsao, Jeffrey Y.; Fouquet, Roger; Schubert, E. Fred

Here, we present and analyze three powerful long-term historical trends in energy, particularly electrical energy, as well as the opportunities and challenges associated with these trends. The first trend is from a world containing a diversity of energy currencies to one whose predominant currency is electricity, driven by electricity’s transportability, exchangeability, and steadily decreasing cost. The second trend is from electricity generated from a diversity of sources to electricity generated predominantly by free-fuel sources, driven by their steadily decreasing cost and long-term abundance. These trends necessitate a just-emerging third trend: from a grid in which electricity is transported uni-directionally, tradedmore » at near-static prices, and consumed under direct human control; to a grid in which electricity is transported bi-directionally, traded at dynamic prices, and consumed under human-tailored agential control. Early acceptance and appreciation of these trends will accelerate their remaking of humanity’s energy landscape into one in which energy is much more affordable, abundant and efficiently deployed than it is today; with major economic, geo-political, and environmental benefits to human society.« less

Long Term Trend Analysis and Assessment of Water Quality in the Penchala River, Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chow, M. F.; Haris, H. B.; Mohd Sidek, L. B.

2014-12-01

Rapid urban expansion produces negative impacts on the natural environment, especially river water quality. Studies assessing long term changes of water quality have been recognized as a key tool for understanding ongoing processes in watersheds and for providing an essential background for evaluation of rapid changes within industrialized and populated urban areas. Unfortunately, only limited studies are available for developing countries such as Malaysia. Thus, a long term study was conducted to evaluate water quality trends at Pencala river basin that has undergone extensive land use changes related to industrial, agricultural and urban activities. Fifteen physical and chemical variables were analysed in river water samples collected every month over a period of 13 years, between 1997 and 2009. The trend study was performed using the Mann-Kendall Seasonal test and the Sen's Slope estimator. Results revealed that most water quality parameters showed a downward trend for yearly average concentration. The water quality index (WQI) for Pencala River was improved from Class V to Class IV, according to National Water Quality Standards for Malaysia. BOD, COD, NH3-N and SS show trends toward decreasing concentrations over time. The improvements seen in water quality appear to be the result of improved wastewater treatment and other water quality improvement efforts achieved through government initiative. Continued long-term and high frequency monitoring is necessary to establish plans and policies for effective water resources management.

Long-term Photometric Variability in Kepler Full-frame Images: Magnetic Cycles of Sun–like Stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montet, Benjamin T.; Tovar, Guadalupe; Foreman-Mackey, Daniel

2017-12-01

Photometry from the Kepler mission is optimized to detect small, short-duration signals like planet transits at the expense of long-term trends. This long-term variability can be recovered in photometry from the full-frame images (FFIs), a set of calibration data collected approximately monthly during the Kepler mission. Here we present f3, an open-source package to perform photometry on the Kepler FFIs in order to detect changes in the brightness of stars in the Kepler field of view over long time baselines. We apply this package to a sample of 4000 Sun–like stars with measured rotation periods. We find that ≈10% of these targets have long-term variability in their observed flux. For the majority of targets, we find that the luminosity variations are either correlated or anticorrelated with the short-term variability due to starspots on the stellar surface. We find a transition between anticorrelated (starspot-dominated) variability and correlated (facula-dominated) variability between rotation periods of 15 and 25 days, suggesting the transition between the two modes is complete for stars at the age of the Sun. We also identify a sample of stars with apparently complete cycles, as well as a collection of short-period binaries with extreme photometric variation over the Kepler mission.

Comparison of long-term trends from reanalyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kozubek, M.

2017-12-01

The long-term trend of different atmospheric parameters has been studied separately during previous years in many papers. This study is focused on the temperature, wind (u and v component), geopotential height and water vapour trends during 1979-2016. We present the trend for each month with respect to ozone turnaround during mid 1990s. The different reanalyses (MERRA, ERA-Interim, JRA-55 and NCEP-NOE) are used for comparison. We analyzed every grid point to reduce the problem with zonal averages in different pressure levels. The results will show the complex view on the trend in the middle atmosphere (troposphere, stratosphere and lower mesosphere). This comparison can give us the clue which reanalysis is better for studying different phenomena (QBO, NAO, ENSO, etc.) and which one has some issues.

Tropospheric ozone long term trend observed by lidar and ECC ozonesondes at Observatoire de Haute Provence, Southern France.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ancellet, G.; Gaudel, A.; Godin-Beekmann, S.

2016-12-01

Tropospheric ozone vertical profile measurements have been carried out at OHP (Observatoire de Haute Provence, 44°N, 6.7°E, 690 m) since 1991 using both UV DIAL (DIfferential Absorption Lidar) and ECC (Electrochemical Concentration Cell) ozonesondes. For the first time, ECC and lidar data measured at the same site, have been compared over a 24 year period. The comparison conducted reveals a bias between both measurement types (ECC - lidar) of the order of 0.6 ppbv. The measurements of both instruments have been however combined to decrease the impact of short-term atmospheric variability on the trend estimate. Air mass trajectories have been calculated for all the ozone observations available at OHP including ECMWF potential vorticity (PV) and humidity chnage along the trajectories. The interannual ozone variability shows a negligible trend in the mid troposphere, but a 0.36 ppbv/year significant positive ozone trend in the upper troposphere. The trends will be discussed using the variability of the meteorological parameters. Data clustering using PV and air mass trajectories is useful to identify the role of Stratosphere-Tropopshere Exchanges and long range transport of pollutants in the observed long term trends. In the lower troposphere, the interannual variability shows contrasted trends with an ozone decrease between 1998 and 2008, consistent with the NOx emission decrease, but a new period of ozone increase since 2008 which is not very well understood.

Cohort Measures of Internal Migration: Understanding Long-Term Trends.

PubMed

Bernard, Aude

2017-12-01

Internal migration intensities fluctuate over time, but both migration levels and trends show great diversity. The dynamics underpinning these trends remain poorly understood because they are analyzed almost exclusively by applying period measures to cross-sectional data. This article proposes 10 cohort measures that can be applied to both prospective and retrospective data to systematically examine long-term trends. To demonstrate their benefits, the proposed measures are applied to retrospective survey data for England that provide residential histories from birth to age 50 for cohorts born between 1918 and 1957. The analysis reveals stable lifetime migration for men but increased lifetime migration for women associated with earlier ages at moving in adulthood and a compression of intervals between consecutive moves. The proposed cohort measures provide a more comprehensive picture of migration behavior and should be used to complement period measures in exploring long-term trends. Increasing availability of retrospective and longitudinal survey data means that researchers can now apply the proposed measures to a wide range of countries.

Is solar correction for long-term trend studies stable?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laštovička, Jan

2017-04-01

When calculating long-term trends in the ionosphere, the effect of the 11-year solar cycle (i.e. of solar activity) must be removed from data, because it is much stronger than the long-term trend. When a data series is analyzed for trend, usual approach is first to calculate from all data their dependence on solar activity and create an observational model of dependence on solar activity. Then the model data are subtracted from observations and trend is computed from residuals. This means that it is assumed that the solar activity dependence is stable over the whole data series period of time. But what happens if it is not the case? As an ionospheric parameter we consider foE from two European stations with the best long data series of parameters of the ionospheric E layer, Slough/Chilton and Juliusruh over 1975-2014 (40 years). Noon-time medians (10-14 LT) are analyzed. The trend pattern after removing solar influence with one correction for the whole period is complex. For yearly average values for both stations first foE is slightly decreasing in 1975-1990, then the trend levels off or a very little increase occurs in 1990-2005, and finally in 2006-2014 a remarkable decrease is observed. This does not seem to be physically plausible. However, when the solar correction is calculated separately for the three above periods, we obtain a smooth slightly negative trend which changes after the mid-1990 into no trend in coincidence with change of ozone trend. While solar corrections for the first two periods are similar (even though not equal), the solar activity dependence of foE in the third period (lower solar activity) is clearly different. Also foF2 trend revealed some effect of unstable solar correction. Thus the stability of solar correction should be carefully tested when calculating ionospheric trends. This could perhaps explain some of differences between the past published trend results.

Multiple long-term trends and trend reversals dominate environmental conditions in a man-made freshwater reservoir.

PubMed

Znachor, Petr; Nedoma, Jiří; Hejzlar, Josef; Seďa, Jaromír; Kopáček, Jiří; Boukal, David; Mrkvička, Tomáš

2018-05-15

Man-made reservoirs are common across the world and provide a wide range of ecological services. Environmental conditions in riverine reservoirs are affected by the changing climate, catchment-wide processes and manipulations with the water level, and water abstraction from the reservoir. Long-term trends of environmental conditions in reservoirs thus reflect a wider range of drivers in comparison to lakes, which makes the understanding of reservoir dynamics more challenging. We analysed a 32-year time series of 36 environmental variables characterising weather, land use in the catchment, reservoir hydrochemistry, hydrology and light availability in the small, canyon-shaped Římov Reservoir in the Czech Republic to detect underlying trends, trend reversals and regime shifts. To do so, we fitted linear and piecewise linear regression and a regime shift model to the time series of mean annual values of each variable and to principal components produced by Principal Component Analysis. Models were weighted and ranked using Akaike information criterion and the model selection approach. Most environmental variables exhibited temporal changes that included time-varying trends and trend reversals. For instance, dissolved organic carbon showed a linear increasing trend while nitrate concentration or conductivity exemplified trend reversal. All trend reversals and cessations of temporal trends in reservoir hydrochemistry (except total phosphorus concentrations) occurred in the late 1980s and during 1990s as a consequence of dramatic socioeconomic changes. After a series of heavy rains in the late 1990s, an administrative decision to increase the flood-retention volume of the reservoir resulted in a significant regime shift in reservoir hydraulic conditions in 1999. Our analyses also highlight the utility of the model selection framework, based on relatively simple extensions of linear regression, to describe temporal trends in reservoir characteristics. This approach can

Long-Term Trends in Space-Ground Atmospheric Propagation Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zemba, Michael J.; Nessel, James A.; Morse, Jacquelynne R.

2015-01-01

Propagation measurement campaigns are critical to characterizing the atmospheric behavior of a location and efficiently designing space-ground links. However, as global climate change affects weather patterns, the long-term trends of propagation data may be impacted over periods of decades or longer. Particularly, at high microwave frequencies (10 GHz and above), rain plays a dominant role in the attenuation statistics, and it has been observed that rain events over the past 50 years have trended toward increased frequency, intensity, and rain height. In the interest of quantifying the impact of these phenomena on long-term trends in propagation data, this paper compares two 20 GHz measurement campaigns both conducted at NASAs White Sands facility in New Mexico. The first is from the Advanced Communications Technology Satellite (ACTS) propagation campaign from 1994 to 1998, while the second is amplitude data recorded during a site test interferometer (STI) phase characterization campaign from 2009 to 2014.

Long-Term Trends in Space-Ground Atmospheric Propagation Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zemba, Michael J.; Morse, Jacquelynne R.; Nessel, James A.

2015-01-01

Propagation measurement campaigns are critical to characterizing the atmospheric behavior of a location and efficiently designing space-ground links. However, as global climate change affects weather patterns, the long-term trends of propagation data may be impacted over periods of decades or longer. Particularly, at high microwave frequencies (10 GHz and above), rain plays a dominant role in the attenuation statistics, and it has been observed that rain events over the past 50 years have trended toward increased frequency, intensity, and rain height. In the interest of quantifying the impact of these phenomena on long-term trends in propagation data, this paper compares two 20 GHz measurement campaigns both conducted at NASA's White Sands facility in New Mexico. The first is from the Advanced Communication Technology Satellite (ACTS) propagation campaign from 1994 - 1998, while the second is amplitude data recorded during a site test interferometer (STI) phase characterization campaign from 2009 - 2014.

Long-term meteorologically independent trend analysis of ozone air quality at an urban site in the greater Houston area.

PubMed

Botlaguduru, Venkata S V; Kommalapati, Raghava R; Huque, Ziaul

2018-04-19

The Houston-Galveston-Brazoria (HGB) area of Texas has a history of ozone exceedances and is currently classified under moderate nonattainment status for the 2008 8-hr ozone standard of 75 ppb. The HGB area is characterized by intense solar radiation, high temperature, and humidity, which influence day-to-day variations in ozone concentrations. Long-term air quality trends independent of meteorological influence need to be constructed for ascertaining the effectiveness of air quality management in this area. The Kolmogorov-Zurbenko (KZ) filter technique used to separate different scales of motion in a time series, is applied in the current study for maximum daily 8-hr (MDA8) ozone concentrations at an urban site (EPA AQS Site ID: 48-201-0024, Aldine) in the HGB area. This site located within 10 miles of downtown Houston and the George Bush Intercontinental Airport, was selected for developing long-term meteorologically independent MDA8 ozone trends for the years 1990-2016. Results from this study indicate a consistent decrease in meteorologically independent MDA8 ozone between 2000-2016. This pattern could be partially attributed to a reduction in underlying NO X emissions, particularly that of lowering nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) levels, and a decrease in the release of highly reactive volatile organic compounds (HRVOC). Results also suggest solar radiation to be most strongly correlated to ozone, with temperature being the secondary meteorological control variable. Relative humidity and wind speed have tertiary influence at this site. This study observed that meteorological variability accounts for a high of 61% variability in baseline ozone (low-frequency component, sum of long-term and seasonal components), while 64% of the change in long-term MDA8 ozone post-2000 could be attributed to NO X emissions reduction. Long-term MDA8 ozone trend component was estimated to be decreasing at a linear rate of 0.412 ± 0.007 ppb/yr for the years 2000-2016, and 0.155�

Long-term Trend of Satellite-observed Chlorophyll-a Concentration Variations in the East/Japan Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, J. E.; PARK, K. A.

2016-02-01

Long-term time-series of satellite ocean color data enable us to analyze the effects of climate change on ocean ecosystem through chlorophyll-a concentration as a proxy for phytoplankton biomass. In this study, we constructed a 17 year-long time-series dataset (1998-2014) of chlorophyll-a concentration by combining SeaWiFS (Obrview-2, 1997-2010) and MODIS (Aqua, 2002-present) data in the East Sea (Japan Sea). Several types of errors such as anonymously high values (a speckle error), stripe-like patterns, discrepancy originating from time gap between the two satellites were eliminated to enhance the accuracy of chlorophyll-a concentration data. The composited chlorophyll-a concentration maps, passing through the post-processing of the speckle errors, were improved significantly, by 14% of abnormal variability in maximum. Using the database, we investigated spatial and temporal variability of chlorophyll-a concentration in the East Sea. Spatial distribution of long-term trend of chlorophyll-a concentration indicated obvious distinction between northern and southern regions of the subpolar front. It revealed predominant seasonal variabilities as well as long-term changes in the timings of spring bloom. This study addresses the important role of local climate change on fast changing ecosystem of the East Sea as one of miniature oceans.

Changes in erosion and flooding risk due to long-term and cyclic oceanographic trends

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wahl, Thomas; Plant, Nathaniel G.

2015-01-01

We assess temporal variations in waves and sea level, which are driving factors for beach 23 erosion and coastal flooding in the northern Gulf of Mexico. We find that long-term trends in 24 the relevant variables have caused an increase of ~30% in the erosion/flooding risk since the 25 1980s. Changes in the wave climate-which have often been ignored in earlier assessments-26 were at least as important as sea-level rise (SLR). In the next decades, SLR will likely become 27 the dominating driver and may in combination with ongoing changes in the wave climate (and 28 depending on the emission scenario) escalate the erosion/flooding risk by up to 300% over the 29 next 30 years. We also find significant changes in the seasonal cycles of sea level and 30 significant wave height, which have in combination caused a considerable increase of the 31 erosion/flooding risk in summer and decrease in winter (superimposed onto the long-term 32 trends)

Gender-Based Violence in India: Long-Term Trends

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Simister, John; Mehta, Parnika S.

2010-01-01

This article examines long-term trends in Indian society regarding domestic violence between husband and wife, and attitudes to such violence. This article analyzes crime data and uses data from several Indian household surveys: "Work Attitudes and Spending" surveys (1992 to 2007); "World Values Survey" (1990, 1995, 2001, and…

Long-term trends in railroad service and capacity for U.S. agriculture

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-11-01

In this paper, the long-term trends in railroad services and capacity for U.S. agriculture are identified and described, particularly in terms of what these trends portend for agricultural shippers absent any change in the economically deregulated en...

Long-term coastal measurements for large-scale climate trends characterization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pomaro, Angela; Cavaleri, Luigi; Lionello, Piero

2017-04-01

Multi-decadal time-series of observational wave data beginning in the late 1970's are relatively rare. The present study refers to the analysis of the 37-year long directional wave time-series recorded between 1979 and 2015 at the CNR-ISMAR (Institute of Marine Sciences of the Italian National Research Council) "Acqua Alta" oceanographic research tower, located in the Northern Adriatic Sea, 15 km offshore the Venice lagoon, on 16 m depth. The extent of the time series allows to exploit its content not only for modelling purposes or short-term statistical analyses, but also at the climatological scale thanks to the peculiar meteorological and oceanographic aspects of the coastal area where this relevant infrastructure has been installed. We explore the dataset both to characterize the local average climate and its variability, and to detect the possible long-term trends that might be suggestive of, or emphasize, large scale circulation patterns and trends. Measured data are essential for the assessment, and often for the calibration, of model data, generally, if long enough, also the reference also for climate studies. By applying this analysis to an area well characterized from the meteorological point of view, we first assess the changes in time based on measured data, and then we compare them to the ones derived from the ERA-Interim regional simulation over the same area, thus showing the strong improvement that is still needed to get reliable climate models projections on coastal areas and the Mediterranean Region as a whole. Moreover, long term hindcast aiming at climatic considerations are well known for 1) underestimating, if their resolution is not high enough, the actual wave heights as well as for 2) being strongly affected by different conditions over time that are likely to introduce spurious trends of variable magnitude. In particular the different amount, in time, of assimilated data by the hindcast models, directly and indirectly affects the results

Zeitgeists and development trends in long-term care facility design.

PubMed

Wang, Chia-Hui; Kuo, Nai-Wen

2006-06-01

Through literature analysis, in-depth interviews, and the application of the Delphi survey, this study explored long-term care resident priorities with regard to long-term care facility design in terms of both physical and psychological needs. This study further clarified changing trends in long-term care concepts; illustrated the impact that such changes are having on long-term care facility design; and summarized zeitgeists related to the architectural design of long-term care facilities. Results of our Delphi survey indicated the following top five priorities in long-term care facility design: (1) creating a home-like feeling; (2) adhering to Universal Design concepts; (3) providing well-defined private sleeping areas; (4) providing adequate social space; and (5) decentralizing residents' rooms into clusters. The three major zeitgeists related to long-term care facility design include: (1) modern long-term care facilities should abandon their traditional "hospital" image and gradually reposition facilities into homelike settings; (2) institution-based care for the elderly should be de-institutionalized under the concept of aging-in-place; and (3) living clusters, rather than traditional hospital-like wards, should be designed into long-term care facilities.

Long-term trends in daily temperature extremes in Iraq

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salman, Saleem A.; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Ismail, Tarmizi; Chung, Eun-Sung; Al-Abadi, Alaa M.

2017-12-01

The existence of long-term persistence (LTP) in hydro-climatic time series can lead to considerable change in significance of trends. Therefore, past findings of climatic trend studies that did not consider LTP became a disputable issue. A study has been conducted to assess the trends in temperature and temperature extremes in Iraq in recent years (1965-2015) using both ordinary Mann-Kendal (MK) test; and the modified Mann-Kendall (m-MK) test, which can differentiate the multi-decadal oscillatory variations from secular trends. Trends in annual and seasonal minimum and maximum temperatures, diurnal temperature range (DTR), and 14 temperature-related extremes were assessed. MK test detected the significant increases in minimum and maximum temperature at all stations, where m-MK test detected at 86% and 80% of all stations, respectively. The temperature in Iraq is increasing 2 to 7 times faster than global temperature rise. The minimum temperature is increasing more (0.48-1.17 °C/decade) than maximum temperature (0.25-1.01 °C/decade). Temperature rise is higher in northern Iraq and in summer. The hot extremes particularly warm nights are increasing all over Iraq at a rate of 2.92-10.69 days/decade, respectively. On the other hand, numbers of cold days are decreasing at some stations at a rate of - 2.65 to - 8.40 days/decade. The use of m-MK test along with MK test confirms the significant increase in temperature and some of the temperature extremes in Iraq. This study suggests that trends in many temperature extremes in the region estimated in previous studies using MK test may be due to natural variability of climate, which empathizes the need for validation of the trends by considering LTP in time series.

Long-term variability in sugarcane bagasse feedstock compositional methods: Sources and magnitude of analytical variability

DOE PAGES

Templeton, David W.; Sluiter, Justin B.; Sluiter, Amie; ...

2016-10-18

In an effort to find economical, carbon-neutral transportation fuels, biomass feedstock compositional analysis methods are used to monitor, compare, and improve biofuel conversion processes. These methods are empirical, and the analytical variability seen in the feedstock compositional data propagates into variability in the conversion yields, component balances, mass balances, and ultimately the minimum ethanol selling price (MESP). We report the average composition and standard deviations of 119 individually extracted National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) bagasse [Reference Material (RM) 8491] run by seven analysts over 7 years. Two additional datasets, using bulk-extracted bagasse (containing 58 and 291 replicates each),more » were examined to separate out the effects of batch, analyst, sugar recovery standard calculation method, and extractions from the total analytical variability seen in the individually extracted dataset. We believe this is the world's largest NIST bagasse compositional analysis dataset and it provides unique insight into the long-term analytical variability. Understanding the long-term variability of the feedstock analysis will help determine the minimum difference that can be detected in yield, mass balance, and efficiency calculations. The long-term data show consistent bagasse component values through time and by different analysts. This suggests that the standard compositional analysis methods were performed consistently and that the bagasse RM itself remained unchanged during this time period. The long-term variability seen here is generally higher than short-term variabilities. It is worth noting that the effect of short-term or long-term feedstock compositional variability on MESP is small, about $0.03 per gallon. The long-term analysis variabilities reported here are plausible minimum values for these methods, though not necessarily average or expected variabilities. We must emphasize the importance of training and

Long-term variability in sugarcane bagasse feedstock compositional methods: Sources and magnitude of analytical variability

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Templeton, David W.; Sluiter, Justin B.; Sluiter, Amie

In an effort to find economical, carbon-neutral transportation fuels, biomass feedstock compositional analysis methods are used to monitor, compare, and improve biofuel conversion processes. These methods are empirical, and the analytical variability seen in the feedstock compositional data propagates into variability in the conversion yields, component balances, mass balances, and ultimately the minimum ethanol selling price (MESP). We report the average composition and standard deviations of 119 individually extracted National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) bagasse [Reference Material (RM) 8491] run by seven analysts over 7 years. Two additional datasets, using bulk-extracted bagasse (containing 58 and 291 replicates each),more » were examined to separate out the effects of batch, analyst, sugar recovery standard calculation method, and extractions from the total analytical variability seen in the individually extracted dataset. We believe this is the world's largest NIST bagasse compositional analysis dataset and it provides unique insight into the long-term analytical variability. Understanding the long-term variability of the feedstock analysis will help determine the minimum difference that can be detected in yield, mass balance, and efficiency calculations. The long-term data show consistent bagasse component values through time and by different analysts. This suggests that the standard compositional analysis methods were performed consistently and that the bagasse RM itself remained unchanged during this time period. The long-term variability seen here is generally higher than short-term variabilities. It is worth noting that the effect of short-term or long-term feedstock compositional variability on MESP is small, about $0.03 per gallon. The long-term analysis variabilities reported here are plausible minimum values for these methods, though not necessarily average or expected variabilities. We must emphasize the importance of training and

Long-term trends in stratospheric ozone, temperature, and water vapor over the Indian region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thankamani Akhil Raj, Sivan; Venkat Ratnam, Madineni; Narayana Rao, Daggumati; Venkata Krishna Murthy, Boddam

2018-01-01

We have investigated the long-term trends in and variabilities of stratospheric ozone, water vapor and temperature over the Indian monsoon region using the long-term data constructed from multi-satellite (Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS MLS and HALOE, 1993-2005), Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS, 2004-2015), Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER, 2002-2015) on board TIMED (Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics Dynamics)) observations covering the period 1993-2015. We have selected two locations, namely, Trivandrum (8.4° N, 76.9° E) and New Delhi (28° N, 77° E), covering northern and southern parts of the Indian region. We also used observations from another station, Gadanki (13.5° N, 79.2° E), for comparison. A decreasing trend in ozone associated with NOx chemistry in the tropical middle stratosphere is found, and the trend turned to positive in the upper stratosphere. Temperature shows a cooling trend in the stratosphere, with a maximum around 37 km over Trivandrum (-1.71 ± 0.49 K decade-1) and New Delhi (-1.15 ± 0.55 K decade-1). The observed cooling trend in the stratosphere over Trivandrum and New Delhi is consistent with Gadanki lidar observations during 1998-2011. The water vapor shows a decreasing trend in the lower stratosphere and an increasing trend in the middle and upper stratosphere. A good correlation between N2O and O3 is found in the middle stratosphere (˜ 10 hPa) and poor correlation in the lower stratosphere. There is not much regional difference in the water vapor and temperature trends. However, upper stratospheric ozone trends over Trivandrum and New Delhi are different. The trend analysis carried out by varying the initial year has shown significant changes in the estimated trend.

Validation of Spacecraft Active Cavity Radiometer Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) Long Term Measurement Trends Using Proxy TSI Least Squares Analyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Robert Benjamin, III; Wilson, Robert S.

2003-01-01

Long-term, incoming total solar irradiance (TSI) measurement trends were validated using proxy TSI values, derived from indices of solar magnetic activity. Spacecraft active cavity radiometers (ACR) are being used to measure longterm TSI variability, which may trigger global climate changes. The TSI, typically referred to as the solar constant, was normalized to the mean earth-sun distance. Studies of spacecraft TSI data sets confirmed the existence of a 0.1 %, long-term TSI variability component within a 10-year period. The 0.1% TSI variability component is clearly present in the spacecraft data sets from the 1984-2004 time frame. Typically, three overlapping spacecraft data sets were used to validate long-term TSI variability trends. However, during the years of 1978-1984, 1989-1991, and 1993-1996, three overlapping spacecraft data sets were not available in order to validate TSI trends. The TSI was found to vary with indices of solar magnetic activity associated with recent 10-year sunspot cycles. Proxy TSI values were derived from least squares analyses of the measured TSI variability with the solar indices of 10.7-cm solar fluxes, and with limb-darked sunspot fluxes. The resulting proxy TSI values were compared to the spacecraft ACR measurements of TSI variability to detect ACR instrument degradation, which may be interpreted as TSI variability. Analyses of ACR measurements and TSI proxies are presented primarily for the 1984-2004, Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) ACR solar monitor data set. Differences in proxy and spacecraft measurement data sets suggest the existence of another TSI variability component with an amplitude greater than or equal to 0.5 Wm-2 (0.04%), and with a cycle of 20 years or more.

The long-term trend in the diurnal temperature range over Asia and its natural and anthropogenic causes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Lin; Li, Zhanqing; Yang, Xin; Gong, Hainan; Li, Chao; Xiong, Anyuan

2016-04-01

Understanding the causes of long-term temperature trends is at the core of climate change studies. Any observed trend can result from natural variability or anthropogenic influences or both. In the present study, we evaluated the performance of 18 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 on simulating the Asian diurnal temperature range (DTR) and explored the potential causes of the long-term trend in the DTR by examining the response of the DTR to natural forcing (volcanic aerosols and solar variability) and anthropogenic forcing (anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHG) and aerosols) in the historical period of 1961-2005. For the climatology, the multimodel ensemble mean reproduced the geographical distribution and amplitude of the DTR over eastern China and India but underestimated the magnitudes of the DTR over the Tibetan Plateau and the high-latitude regions of the Asian continent. These negative biases in the DTR over frigid zones existed in most models. Seasonal biases in the DTR pattern from models were similar to the bias in the annual mean DTR pattern. Based on three selected state-of-the-art models, the observed decreasing trend in the DTR over Asia was reasonably reproduced in the all-forcing run. A comparison of separate forcing experiments revealed that anthropogenic forcing plays the dominant role in the declining trend in the DTR. Observations and model simulations showed that GHG forcing is mainly responsible for the negative trends in the DTR over Asia but that anthropogenic aerosol forcing was also behind the decreasing trend in the DTR over China and especially over eastern China.

Long-term (10 year) trends in the chemistry of urban streams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groffman, P. M.; Band, L. E.; Belt, K. T.; Kaushal, S.; Fisher, G. T.

2010-12-01

Weekly sampling of eight streams in the Baltimore metropolitan area has been carried out since 1998 as part of the NSF funded Baltimore urban Long-Term Ecological Research (BES LTER) project. The BES watersheds include 100% forested and agricultural catchments and developed watersheds ranging from very low-density (<1% impervious surface) suburban watersheds serviced by septic systems to more dense (> 40% impervious surface) urban watersheds. Stream discharge is continuously monitored at these sites by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). Stream samples are collected weekly regardless of flow conditions (no bias towards storm versus baseflow) and analyzed for nitrate, total nitrogen (N), phosphate, total phosphorus (P), chloride and sulfate. Ten-year analysis of the BES long-term study sites reveals several interesting spatial and temporal patterns. For N, the highest concentrations were found in the agricultural and suburban watersheds, followed by the urban sites, and finally by the forested site. Organic N was most important as a proportion of total N in the urban and forested sites. Spatial patterns in P were more complex, with urban, suburban and agricultural sites having the highest values. Over the ten year record, many sites showed significant changes in N concentrations, but few sites showed consistent patterns in P. The patterns in N were quite variable however, with some sites showing striking increases, while others showed striking decreases. Most (7 of 8) sites showed a decrease in the proportion of organic N, the trend was significant at 4 of the sites. There were few trends in the proportion of organic P. Discharge was a significant driver of variation in N and P export at some (mostly smaller watersheds) sites, for some solutes, but was not an overwhelmingly important driver of temporal variation. Key factors driving long-term patterns include climate variation and efforts to improve urban stream water quality by municipal authorities.

Long-term hydrometeorological trends in the Midwest region based on a century long gridded hydrometeorological dataset and simulations from a macro-scale hydrology model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiu, C. M.; Hamlet, A. F.

2014-12-01

Climate change is likely to impact the Great Lakes region and Midwest region via changes in Great Lakes water levels, agricultural impacts, river flooding, urban stormwater impacts, drought, water temperature, and impacts to terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Self-consistent and temporally homogeneous long-term data sets of precipitation and temperature over the entire Great Lakes region and Midwest regions are needed to provide inputs to hydrologic models, assess historical trends in hydroclimatic variables, and downscale global and regional-scale climate models. To support these needs a new hybrid gridded meteorological forcing dataset at 1/16 degree resolution based on data from co-op station records, the U. S Historical Climatology Network (HCN) , the Historical Canadian Climate Database (HCCD), and Precipitation Regression on Independent Slopes Method (PRISM) has been assembled over the Great Lakes and Midwest region from 1915-2012 at daily time step. These data were then used as inputs to the macro-scale Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model, implemented over the Midwest and Great Lakes region at 1/16 degree resolution, to produce simulated hydrologic variables that are amenable to long-term trend analysis. Trends in precipitation and temperature from the new meteorological driving data sets, as well as simulated hydrometeorological variables such as snowpack, soil moisture, runoff, and evaporation over the 20th century are presented and discussed.

Long-term stellar variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pagano, Isabella

2010-02-01

Stars with significant subsurface convection zones develop magnetic loop structures that, arising from the surface upward to the external atmospheres, cause flux variability detectable throughout the whole electromagnetic spectrum. In fact, diagnostics of magnetic activity are in radio wavelengths, where gyrosincrotron radiation arises from the quiescent and flaring corona; in the optical region, where important signatures are the Balmer lines, the Ca ii IRT and H&K lines; in the UV and X ray domains, the latter mainly due to coronal thermal plasma. The zoo of different magnetic features observed for the Sun - spots, faculae, flares, CMEs - are characterized by different temporal evolution and energetics, both in quantity and quality. As a consequence, the time scale of variability, the amount of involved energy and the quality of the involved photons are used as fingerprints in interpreting the observed stellar variability in the framework of the solar-stellar analogy. Here I review main results from long-term multiwavelength observations of cool star atmospheres, with emphasis to similarities and differences with the solar case.

Long-term trends in metals, PCBs, and pesticides in mussels from San Francisco Bay

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stephenson, M.D.; Tjeerdema, R.S.; Taberski, K.

1995-12-31

Many contaminant programs have been established to study the geographical distributions and long-term trends of potential pollutants, but unfortunately, many have been short-lived because of economic cutbacks, providing limited information on long-term trends. The California State Mussel Watch program in conjunction with the San Francisco Estuary Institute (in the last 2 years) have provided continues funding for the past 15 years to mussel watch studies in San Francisco Bay. Long-term trends have been identified that describe declines in many organics and metals during the last 15 years. There are also some metals and organics that show no specific trends. Themore » declines indicate that the banning or restriction of usage of some of these contaminants has resulted in substantial decreases of these substances in the environment.« less

Analysis options for estimating status and trends in long-term monitoring

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bart, Jonathan; Beyer, Hawthorne L.

2012-01-01

This chapter describes methods for estimating long-term trends in ecological parameters. Other chapters in this volume discuss more advanced methods for analyzing monitoring data, but these methods may be relatively inaccessible to some readers. Therefore, this chapter provides an introduction to trend analysis for managers and biologists while also discussing general issues relevant to trend assessment in any long-term monitoring program. For simplicity, we focus on temporal trends in population size across years. We refer to the survey results for each year as the “annual means” (e.g. mean per transect, per plot, per time period). The methods apply with little or no modification, however, to formal estimates of population size, other temporal units (e.g. a month), to spatial or other dimensions such as elevation or a north–south gradient, and to other quantities such as chemical or geological parameters. The chapter primarily discusses methods for estimating population-wide parameters rather than studying variation in trend within the population, which can be examined using methods presented in other chapters (e.g. Chapters 7, 12, 20). We begin by reviewing key concepts related to trend analysis. We then describe how to evaluate potential bias in trend estimates. An overview of the statistical models used to quantify trends is then presented. We conclude by showing ways to estimate trends using simple methods that can be implemented with spreadsheets.

Assessment of the effects of horizontal grid resolution on long-term air quality trends using coupled WRF-CMAQ simulations

EPA Science Inventory

The objective of this study is to determine the adequacy of using a relatively coarse horizontal resolution (i.e. 36 km) to simulate long-term trends of pollutant concentrations and radiation variables with the coupled WRF-CMAQ model. WRF-CMAQ simulations over the continental Uni...

Long-term variability of aerosol optical properties and radiative effects in Northern Finland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lihavainen, Heikki; Hyvärinen, Antti; Asmi, Eija; Hatakka, Juha; Viisanen, Yrjö

2017-04-01

We introduce long term dataset of aerosol scattering and absorption properties and combined aerosol optical properties measured in Pallas Atmosphere-Ecosystem Supersite in Norhern Finland. The station is located 170 km north of the Arctic Circle. The station is affected by both pristine Arctic air masses as well as long transported air pollution from northern Europe. We studied the optical properties of aerosols and their radiative effects in continental and marine air masses, including seasonal cycles and long-term trends. The average (median) scattering coefficient, backscattering fraction, absorption coefficient and single scattering albedo at the wavelength of 550 nm were 7.9 (4.4) 1/Mm, 0.13 (0.12), 0.74 (0.35) 1/Mm and 0.92 (0.93), respectively. We observed clear seasonal cycles in these variables, the scattering coefficient having high values during summer and low in fall, and absorption coefficient having high values during winter and low in fall. We found that the high values of the absorption coefficient and low values of the single scattering albedo were related to continental air masses from lower latitudes. These aerosols can induce an additional effect on the surface albedo and melting of snow. We observed the signal of the Arctic haze in marine (northern) air masses during March and April. The haze increased the value of the absorption coefficient by almost 80% and that of the scattering coefficient by about 50% compared with the annual-average values. We did not observe any long-term trend in the scattering coefficient, while our analysis showed a clear decreasing trend in the backscattering fraction and scattering Ångström exponent during winter. We also observed clear relationship with temperature and aerosol scattering coefficient. We will present also how these different features affects to aerosol direct radiative forcing.

Long-term variability of T Tauri stars using WASP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rigon, Laura; Scholz, Alexander; Anderson, David; West, Richard

2017-03-01

We present a reference study of the long-term optical variability of young stars using data from the WASP project. Our primary sample is a group of well-studied classical T Tauri stars (CTTSs), mostly in Taurus-Auriga. WASP light curves cover time-scales of up to 7 yr and typically contain 10 000-30 000 data points. We quantify the variability as a function of time-scale using the time-dependent standard deviation 'pooled sigma'. We find that the overwhelming majority of CTTSs have a low-level variability with σ < 0.3 mag dominated by time-scales of a few weeks, consistent with rotational modulation. Thus, for most young stars, monitoring over a month is sufficient to constrain the total amount of variability over time-scales of up to a decade. The fraction of stars with a strong optical variability (σ > 0.3 mag) is 21 per cent in our sample and 21 per cent in an unbiased control sample. An even smaller fraction (13 per cent in our sample, 6 per cent in the control) show evidence for an increase in variability amplitude as a function of time-scale from weeks to months or years. The presence of long-term variability correlates with the spectral slope at 3-5 μm, which is an indicator of inner disc geometry, and with the U-B band slope, which is an accretion diagnostics. This shows that the long-term variations in CTTSs are predominantly driven by processes in the inner disc and in the accretion zone. Four of the stars with long-term variations show periods of 20-60 d, significantly longer than the rotation periods and stable over months to years. One possible explanation is cyclic changes in the interaction between the disc and the stellar magnetic field.

Common Calibration Source for Monitoring Long-term Ozone Trends

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kowalewski, Matthew

2004-01-01

Accurate long-term satellite measurements are crucial for monitoring the recovery of the ozone layer. The slow pace of the recovery and limited lifetimes of satellite monitoring instruments demands that datasets from multiple observation systems be combined to provide the long-term accuracy needed. A fundamental component of accurately monitoring long-term trends is the calibration of these various instruments. NASA s Radiometric Calibration and Development Facility at the Goddard Space Flight Center has provided resources to minimize calibration biases between multiple instruments through the use of a common calibration source and standardized procedures traceable to national standards. The Facility s 50 cm barium sulfate integrating sphere has been used as a common calibration source for both US and international satellite instruments, including the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS), Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet 2 (SBUV/2) instruments, Shuttle SBUV (SSBUV), Ozone Mapping Instrument (OMI), Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME) (ESA), Scanning Imaging SpectroMeter for Atmospheric ChartographY (SCIAMACHY) (ESA), and others. We will discuss the advantages of using a common calibration source and its effects on long-term ozone data sets. In addition, sphere calibration results from various instruments will be presented to demonstrate the accuracy of the long-term characterization of the source itself.

The Uncertainty of Long-term Linear Trend in Global SST Due to Internal Variation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lian, Tao

2016-04-01

In most parts of the global ocean, the magnitude of the long-term linear trend in sea surface temperature (SST) is much smaller than the amplitude of local multi-scale internal variation. One can thus use the record of a specified period to arbitrarily determine the value and the sign of the long-term linear trend in regional SST, and further leading to controversial conclusions on how global SST responds to global warming in the recent history. Analyzing the linear trend coefficient estimated by the ordinary least-square method indicates that the linear trend consists of two parts: One related to the long-term change, and the other related to the multi-scale internal variation. The sign of the long-term change can be correctly reproduced only when the magnitude of the linear trend coefficient is greater than a theoretical threshold which scales the influence from the multi-scale internal variation. Otherwise, the sign of the linear trend coefficient will depend on the phase of the internal variation, or in the other words, the period being used. An improved least-square method is then proposed to reduce the theoretical threshold. When apply the new method to a global SST reconstruction from 1881 to 2013, we find that in a large part of Pacific, the southern Indian Ocean and North Atlantic, the influence from the multi-scale internal variation on the sign of the linear trend coefficient can-not be excluded. Therefore, the resulting warming or/and cooling linear trends in these regions can-not be fully assigned to global warming.

20 year long term air quality trends in Israel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luria, M.

2017-12-01

The Israeli air monitoring network was established in the mid 1990's with dozens of measuring sites near most populated areas. During these past 20 years the Israel economy has increased significantly. The population grew by 30%, energy consumption and power generation by more than 40% and the number of motor vehicles increased by nearly 50%. Most of the fossil energy is consumed by the electric power industry that has changed immensely during this period. Until the early 2000's the vast majority of the electricity was generated from coal and heavy oil. However, during the last ten years natural gas has gradually becomes the major source for power generation and for most of the heavy industry. In the present study we examined the impact of these economic trends on the major criteria air pollution parameters; O3, NOx, SO2 and PM10. The analyses was based on the long term trend of median value (50th percentile) and the 90th percentile. The results revealed that SO2 levels throughout the country decreased to very low levels, with the 90th percentile near the detection limit. The levels of PM10, that are relatively high compare with other global regions, did not show any trend during the 20 year period. This is consistent with the fact that most particulate matter results from long range transport of dust from the surrounding deserts. The long term trend of NOx indicates a gradual and steady increase at most measuring sites, which is consistent with the increase of fossil fuel consumption. The increase in NOx levels is most likely the cause for the significant increase in O3 levels found at most sites in a few of them to levels that are considered as an environmental hazard.

Trend analysis of evapotranspiration over India: Observed from long-term satellite measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goroshi, Sheshakumar; Pradhan, Rohit; Singh, Raghavendra P.; Singh, K. K.; Parihar, Jai Singh

2017-12-01

Owing to the lack of consistent spatial time series data on actual evapotranspiration ( ET), very few studies have been conducted on the long-term trend and variability in ET at a national scale over the Indian subcontinent. The present study uses biome specific ET data derived from NOAA satellite's advanced very high resolution radiometer to investigate the trends and variability in ET over India from 1983 to 2006. Trend analysis using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test showed that the domain average ET decreased during the period at a rate of 0.22 mm year^{-1}. A strong decreasing trend (m = -1.75 mm year^{-1}, F = 17.41, P 0.01) was observed in forest regions. Seasonal analyses indicated a decreasing trend during southwest summer monsoon (m= -0.320 mm season^{-1} year^{-1}) and post-monsoon period (m= -0.188 mm season^{-1 } year^{-1}). In contrast, an increasing trend was observed during northeast winter monsoon (m = 0.156 mm season^{-1 } year^{-1}) and pre-monsoon (m = 0.068 mm season^{-1 } year^{-1}) periods. Despite an overall net decline in the country, a considerable increase ( 4 mm year^{-1}) was observed over arid and semi-arid regions. Grid level correlation with various climatic parameters exhibited a strong positive correlation (r >0.5) of ET with soil moisture and precipitation over semi-arid and arid regions, whereas a negative correlation (r -0.5) occurred with temperature and insolation in dry regions of western India. The results of this analysis are useful for understanding regional ET dynamics and its relationship with various climatic parameters over India. Future studies on the effects of ET changes on the hydrological cycle, carbon cycle, and energy partitioning are needed to account for the feedbacks to the climate.

Detecting long-term growth trends using tree rings: a critical evaluation of methods.

PubMed

Peters, Richard L; Groenendijk, Peter; Vlam, Mart; Zuidema, Pieter A

2015-05-01

Tree-ring analysis is often used to assess long-term trends in tree growth. A variety of growth-trend detection methods (GDMs) exist to disentangle age/size trends in growth from long-term growth changes. However, these detrending methods strongly differ in approach, with possible implications for their output. Here, we critically evaluate the consistency, sensitivity, reliability and accuracy of four most widely used GDMs: conservative detrending (CD) applies mathematical functions to correct for decreasing ring widths with age; basal area correction (BAC) transforms diameter into basal area growth; regional curve standardization (RCS) detrends individual tree-ring series using average age/size trends; and size class isolation (SCI) calculates growth trends within separate size classes. First, we evaluated whether these GDMs produce consistent results applied to an empirical tree-ring data set of Melia azedarach, a tropical tree species from Thailand. Three GDMs yielded similar results - a growth decline over time - but the widely used CD method did not detect any change. Second, we assessed the sensitivity (probability of correct growth-trend detection), reliability (100% minus probability of detecting false trends) and accuracy (whether the strength of imposed trends is correctly detected) of these GDMs, by applying them to simulated growth trajectories with different imposed trends: no trend, strong trends (-6% and +6% change per decade) and weak trends (-2%, +2%). All methods except CD, showed high sensitivity, reliability and accuracy to detect strong imposed trends. However, these were considerably lower in the weak or no-trend scenarios. BAC showed good sensitivity and accuracy, but low reliability, indicating uncertainty of trend detection using this method. Our study reveals that the choice of GDM influences results of growth-trend studies. We recommend applying multiple methods when analysing trends and encourage performing sensitivity and reliability

Long-term trend of foE in European higher middle latitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laštovička, Jan

2016-04-01

Long-term changes and trends have been observed in the whole ionosphere below its maximum. As concerns the E region, historical global data (Bremer, 2008) provide predominantly slightly positive trend, even though some stations provide a negative trend. Here we use data of two European stations with the best long data series of parameters of the ionospheric E layer, Slough/Chilton and Juliusruh over 1975-2014 (40 years). Noon-time medians (10-14 LT) are analyzed. The trend pattern after removing solar influence is complex. For yearly average values for Chilton first foE is decreasing in 1975-1990 by about 0.1 MHz, then the trend levels off or a little increase occurs in 1990-2004, and finally in 2004-2014 again a decrease is observed (again by about 0.1 MHz but over shorter period). Juliusruh yields a similar pattern. Similar analysis is also done for some months to check seasonal dependence of trends. The stability of relation between solar activity and foE is tested to clarify potential role of this factor in apparent trend of foE.

Long-term streamflow trends on California’s north coast

Treesearch

J. Eli Asarian; Jeffrey D. Walker

2017-01-01

Using streamflow data from the U.S. Geological Survey, we assessed long-term (1953-2012) trends in streamflow on California’s North Coast including many sites in the redwood region. The study area spans from the Smith River to the Mattole River and includes the Eel and Klamath-Trinity basins. Antecedent Precipitation Index (API) is a time-weighted summary of...

Preface to Long-term trends in the upper atmosphere and ionosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laštovička, J.; Lübken, F.-J.

2017-10-01

The anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases influence the atmosphere at nearly all altitudes between the ground and the topside ionosphere and upper thermosphere, thus affecting not only life on the surface, but also the space-based technological systems on which we increasingly rely. This special issue deals with long-term trends in the mesosphere, thermosphere, ionosphere, and partly also in the stratosphere, which are predominantly (but not only) caused by anthropogenic factors, particularly by the increasing concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. The special issue is based on selected papers from the 9th IAGA/ICMA/SCOSTEP workshop ;Long-Term Changes and Trends in the Atmosphere; held in September 2016 in Kühlungsborn, Germany. The 10th workshop will be held in June 2018 in Hefei, China.

Long-term trends in DDT, PCBs, and chlordane in mussels from California

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stephenson, M.D.; Tjeerdema, R.S.

1994-12-31

Many contaminant programs have been established to study the geographical distributions and long-term trends of potential pollutants, but unfortunately, many have been short-lived because of economic cutbacks, providing limited information on long-term trends. The California State Mussel Watch program, however, has been continuously funded for the past 15 years. Several sites have been evaluated and were sampled often enough to obtain statistical resolution. Chlordane was evaluated at 29 stations, with 48% showing significant decreases over time; DDT was evaluated at 35 sites, with 43% showing significant declines; and PCBs were evaluated at 47 sites, with 21% showing significant drops overmore » time. Both DDT and PCBs showed declines, corresponding to decreases in their concentrations in the effluent, at sites located in the vicinity of the Los Angeles County municipal sewage outfall. This long-term investigation indicates that, contrary to public opinion, the banning of DDT, chlordane, and PCBs by the USEPA has led to overall improvement in water quality.« less

Long-term variability of the thunderstorm and hail potential in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohr, Susanna; Kunz, Michael; Speidel, Johannes; Piper, David

2016-04-01

Severe thunderstorms and associated hazardous weather events such as hail frequently cause considerable damage to buildings, crops, and automobiles, resulting in large monetary costs in many parts of Europe and the world. To relate single extreme hail events to the historic context and to estimate their return periods and possible trends related to climate change, long-term statistics of hail events are required. Due to the local-scale nature of hail and a lack of suitable observation systems, however, hailstorms are not captured reliably and comprehensively for a long period of time. In view of this fact, different proxies (indirect climate data) obtained from sounding stations and regional climate models can be used to infer the probability and intensity of thunderstorms or hailstorms. In contrast to direct observational data, such proxies are available homogeneously over a long time period. The aim of the study is to investigate the potential for severe thunderstorms and their changes over past decades. Statistical analyses of sounding data show that the convective potential over the past 20 - 30 years has significantly increased over large parts of Central Europe, making severe thunderstorms more likely. A similar picture results from analyses of weather types that are most likely associated with damaging hailstorms. These weather patterns have increased, even if only slightly but nevertheless statistically significantly, in the time period from 1971 to 2000. To improve the diagnostics of hail events in regional climate models, a logistic hail model has been developed by means of a multivariate analysis method. The model is based on a combination of appropriate hail-relevant meteorological parameters. The output of the model is a new index that estimates the potential of the atmosphere for hailstorm development, referred to as potential hail index (PHI). Applied to a high-resolved reanalysis run for Europe driven by NCEP/NCAR1, long-term changes of the PHI for

Long-term optical flux and colour variability in quasars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sukanya, N.; Stalin, C. S.; Jeyakumar, S.; Praveen, D.; Dhani, Arnab; Damle, R.

2016-02-01

We have used optical V and R band observations from the Massive Compact Halo Object (MACHO) project on a sample of 59 quasars behind the Magellanic clouds to study their long term optical flux and colour variations. These quasars, lying in the redshift range of 0.2 < z < 2.8 and having apparent V band magnitudes between 16.6 and 20.1 mag, have observations ranging from 49 to 1353 epochs spanning over 7.5 yr with frequency of sampling between 2 to 10 days. All the quasars show variability during the observing period. The normalised excess variance (Fvar) in V and R bands are in the range 0.2% < FVvar < 1.6% and 0.1% < FRvar < 1.5% respectively. In a large fraction of the sources, Fvar is larger in the V band compared to the R band. From the z-transformed discrete cross-correlation function analysis, we find that there is no lag between the V and R band variations. Adopting the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach, and properly taking into account the correlation between the errors in colours and magnitudes, it is found that the majority of sources show a bluer when brighter trend, while a minor fraction of quasars show the opposite behaviour. This is similar to the results obtained from another two independent algorithms, namely the weighted linear least squares fit (FITEXY) and the bivariate correlated errors and intrinsic scatter regression (BCES). However, the ordinary least squares (OLS) fit, normally used in the colour variability studies of quasars, indicates that all the quasars studied here show a bluer when brighter trend. It is therefore very clear that the OLS algorithm cannot be used for the study of colour variability in quasars.

Long-term trend and variability of atmospheric PM10 concentration in the Po Valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bigi, A.; Ghermandi, G.

2014-05-01

The limits to atmospheric pollutant concentration set by the European Commission provide a challenging target for the municipalities in the Po Valley, because of the characteristic climatic conditions and high population density of this region. In order to assess climatology and trends in the concentration of atmospheric particles in the Po Valley, a data set of PM10 data from 41 sites across the Po Valley have been analysed, including both traffic and background sites (either urban, suburban or rural). Of these 41 sites, 18 with 10 yr or longer record have been analysed for long-term trend in deseasonalized monthly means, in annual quantiles and in monthly frequency distribution. A widespread significant decreasing trend has been observed at most sites, up to a few percent per year, by a generalized least squares and Theil-Sen method. All 41 sites have been tested for significant weekly periodicity by Kruskal-Wallis test for mean anomalies and by Wilcoxon test for weekend effect magnitude. A significant weekly periodicity has been observed for most PM10 series, particularly in summer and ascribed mainly to anthropic particulate emissions. A cluster analysis has been applied in order to highlight stations sharing similar pollution conditions over the reference period. Five clusters have been found, two encompassing the metropolitan areas of Turin and Milan and their respective nearby sites and the other three clusters gathering northeast, northwest and central Po Valley sites respectively. Finally, the observed trends in atmospheric PM10 have been compared to trends in provincial emissions of particulates and PM precursors, and analysed along with data on vehicular fleet age, composition and fuel sales. A significant basin-wide drop in emissions occurred for gaseous pollutants, contrarily to emissions of PM10 and PM2.5, whose drop was low and restricted to a few provinces. It is not clear whether the decrease for only gaseous emissions is sufficient to explain the

Long-term citizen-collected data reveal geographical patterns and temporal trends in lake water clarity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lottig, Noah R.; Wagner, Tyler; Henry, Emily N.; Cheruvelil, Kendra Spence; Webster, Katherine E.; Downing, John A.; Stow, Craig A.

2014-01-01

We compiled a lake-water clarity database using publically available, citizen volunteer observations made between 1938 and 2012 across eight states in the Upper Midwest, USA. Our objectives were to determine (1) whether temporal trends in lake-water clarity existed across this large geographic area and (2) whether trends were related to the lake-specific characteristics of latitude, lake size, or time period the lake was monitored. Our database consisted of >140,000 individual Secchi observations from 3,251 lakes that we summarized per lake-year, resulting in 21,020 summer averages. Using Bayesian hierarchical modeling, we found approximately a 1% per year increase in water clarity (quantified as Secchi depth) for the entire population of lakes. On an individual lake basis, 7% of lakes showed increased water clarity and 4% showed decreased clarity. Trend direction and strength were related to latitude and median sample date. Lakes in the southern part of our study-region had lower average annual summer water clarity, more negative long-term trends, and greater inter-annual variability in water clarity compared to northern lakes. Increasing trends were strongest for lakes with median sample dates earlier in the period of record (1938–2012). Our ability to identify specific mechanisms for these trends is currently hampered by the lack of a large, multi-thematic database of variables that drive water clarity (e.g., climate, land use/cover). Our results demonstrate, however, that citizen science can provide the critical monitoring data needed to address environmental questions at large spatial and long temporal scales. Collaborations among citizens, research scientists, and government agencies may be important for developing the data sources and analytical tools necessary to move toward an understanding of the factors influencing macro-scale patterns such as those shown here for lake water clarity.

Long-Term Citizen-Collected Data Reveal Geographical Patterns and Temporal Trends in Lake Water Clarity

PubMed Central

Lottig, Noah R.; Wagner, Tyler; Norton Henry, Emily; Spence Cheruvelil, Kendra; Webster, Katherine E.; Downing, John A.; Stow, Craig A.

2014-01-01

We compiled a lake-water clarity database using publically available, citizen volunteer observations made between 1938 and 2012 across eight states in the Upper Midwest, USA. Our objectives were to determine (1) whether temporal trends in lake-water clarity existed across this large geographic area and (2) whether trends were related to the lake-specific characteristics of latitude, lake size, or time period the lake was monitored. Our database consisted of >140,000 individual Secchi observations from 3,251 lakes that we summarized per lake-year, resulting in 21,020 summer averages. Using Bayesian hierarchical modeling, we found approximately a 1% per year increase in water clarity (quantified as Secchi depth) for the entire population of lakes. On an individual lake basis, 7% of lakes showed increased water clarity and 4% showed decreased clarity. Trend direction and strength were related to latitude and median sample date. Lakes in the southern part of our study-region had lower average annual summer water clarity, more negative long-term trends, and greater inter-annual variability in water clarity compared to northern lakes. Increasing trends were strongest for lakes with median sample dates earlier in the period of record (1938–2012). Our ability to identify specific mechanisms for these trends is currently hampered by the lack of a large, multi-thematic database of variables that drive water clarity (e.g., climate, land use/cover). Our results demonstrate, however, that citizen science can provide the critical monitoring data needed to address environmental questions at large spatial and long temporal scales. Collaborations among citizens, research scientists, and government agencies may be important for developing the data sources and analytical tools necessary to move toward an understanding of the factors influencing macro-scale patterns such as those shown here for lake water clarity. PMID:24788722

Long-term trends in a Dimictic Lake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robertson, Dale M.; Hsieh, Yi-Fang; Lathrop, Richard C; Wu, Chin H; Magee, Madeline; Hamilton, David P.

2016-01-01

��1993, and 1994–2014) delineated by abrupt changes in air temperature and wind speed. Average summer hypolimnetic temperature and fall turnover date exhibit significant differences between the third period and the first two periods. Changes in ice cover (ice-on and ice-off dates, ice cover duration, and maximum ice thickness) exhibit an abrupt change after 1994, which was related in part to the warm El Niño winter of 1997–1998. Under-ice water temperature, freeze-over water temperature, hypolimnetic temperature, fall turnover date, and stratification duration demonstrate a significant difference in the third period (1994–2014), when air temperature was warmest and wind speeds decreased rather abruptly. The trends in ice cover and water temperature demonstrate responses to both long-term and abrupt changes in meteorological conditions that can be complemented with numerical modeling to better understand how these variables will respond in a future climate.

Sea level anomaly in the North Atlantic and seas around Europe: Long-term variability and response to North Atlantic teleconnection patterns.

PubMed

Iglesias, Isabel; Lorenzo, M Nieves; Lázaro, Clara; Fernandes, M Joana; Bastos, Luísa

2017-12-31

Sea level anomaly (SLA), provided globally by satellite altimetry, is considered a valuable proxy for detecting long-term changes of the global ocean, as well as short-term and annual variations. In this manuscript, monthly sea level anomaly grids for the period 1993-2013 are used to characterise the North Atlantic Ocean variability at inter-annual timescales and its response to the North Atlantic main patterns of atmospheric circulation variability (North Atlantic Oscillation, Eastern Atlantic, Eastern Atlantic/Western Russia, Scandinavian and Polar/Eurasia) and main driven factors as sea level pressure, sea surface temperature and wind fields. SLA variability and long-term trends are analysed for the North Atlantic Ocean and several sub-regions (North, Baltic and Mediterranean and Black seas, Bay of Biscay extended to the west coast of the Iberian Peninsula, and the northern North Atlantic Ocean), depicting the SLA fluctuations at basin and sub-basin scales, aiming at representing the regions of maximum sea level variability. A significant correlation between SLA and the different phases of the teleconnection patterns due to the generated winds, sea level pressure and sea surface temperature anomalies, with a strong variability on temporal and spatial scales, has been identified. Long-term analysis reveals the existence of non-stationary inter-annual SLA fluctuations in terms of the temporal scale. Spectral density analysis has shown the existence of long-period signals in the SLA inter-annual component, with periods of ~10, 5, 4 and 2years, depending on the analysed sub-region. Also, a non-uniform increase in sea level since 1993 is identified for all sub-regions, with trend values between 2.05mm/year, for the Bay of Biscay region, and 3.98mm/year for the Baltic Sea (no GIA correction considered). The obtained results demonstrated a strong link between the atmospheric patterns and SLA, as well as strong long-period fluctuations of this variable in spatial and

Long-term Variability of Beach Cusps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pianca, C.; Holman, R. A.; Siegle, E.

2016-02-01

The most curious morphological features observed on beaches are the cusps. Due to their rhythmic spacing, beach cusps have attracted many observers and many, often contradictory, theories as to their form. Moreover, most of the research about beach cusps has focused on their formation. Few had available long time series to study such things as the variability of alongshore and cross-shore position and spacing on the cusp field, the presence, longevity and interactions between higher and lower sets of cusps, and the processes by which cusp fields extend, shrink or change length scale. The purpose of this work is to use long-term data sets of video images from two study sites, an intermediate (Duck, USA, 26 years) and a reflective beach (Massaguaçu, Brazil, 3 years), to investigate the temporal and spatial changes of cusps conditions. Time-evolving shoreline data were first extracted using an algorithm called ASLIM (Pianca et al 2015). Cusps were then identified based on the band-passed variability of time exposure image data about this shoreline as a function of elevation relative to MSL. The identified beaches cusps will be analyzed for cusp spacing, positions (upper or lower cusps), alongshore variability, merging events, percentage of cusp events, patterns of the events and time scales of variability. Finally, the relationship of these characteristics to environmental conditions (wave, tides, beach conditions) will be studied.

The Impacts of Wind Speed Trends and Long-term Variability in Relation to Hydroelectric Reservoir Inflows on Wind Power in the Pacific Northwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cross, B.; Kohfeld, K. E.; Cooper, A.; Bailey, H. J.; Rucker, M.

2013-12-01

The use of wind power is growing rapidly in the Pacific Northwest (PNW ) due to environmental concerns, decreasing costs of implementation, strong wind speeds, and a desire to diversify electricity sources to minimize the impacts of streamflow variability on electricity prices and system flexibility. In hydroelectric dominated systems, like the PNW, the benefits of wind power can be maximized by accounting for the relationship between long term variability in wind speeds and reservoir inflows. Clean energy policies in British Columbia make the benefits of increased wind power generation during low streamflow periods particularly large, by preventing the overbuilding of marginal hydroelectric projects. The goal of this work was to quantify long-term relationships between wind speed and streamflow behavior in British Columbia. Wind speed data from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) and cumulative usable inflows (CUI) from BC Hydro were used to analyze 10m wind speed and density (WD) trends, WD-CUI correlations, and WD anomalies during low and high inflow periods in the PNW (40°N to 65°N, 110°W to 135°W) from 1979-2010. Statistically significant positive wind speed and density trends were found for most of the PNW, with the largest increases along the Pacific Coast. CUI-WD correlations were weakly positive for most regions, with the highest values along the US coast (r ~0.55), generally weaker correlations to the north, and negative correlations (r ~ -0.25) along BC's North Coast. When considering seasonal relationships, the Spring freshet was coincident with lower WD anomalies west of the Rocky Mountains and higher WDs to the east. A similar but opposite pattern was observed for low inflow winter months. When considering interannual variability, lowest inflow years experienced positive WD anomalies (up to 40% increases) for the North Coast. In highest inflow years, positive WD anomalies were widespread in the US and for smaller patches of central BC

Water quality of the Neuse River, North Carolina : variability, pollution loads, and long-term trends

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harned, Douglas A.

1980-01-01

A water-quality study of the Neuse River, N.C., based on data collected during 1956-77 at the U.S. Geological Survey stations at Clayton and Kinston, employs statistical trend analysis techniques that provide a framework for river quality assessment. Overall, water-quality of the Neuse River is satisfactory for most uses. At Clayton, fecal coliform bacteria and nutrient levels are high, but algae and total-organic-carbon data indicate water-quality improvement in recent years, due probably to a new wastewater treatment plant located downstream from Raleigh, N.C. Pollution was determined by subtracting estimated natural loads of constituents from measured total loads. Pollution makes up approximately 50% of the total dissolved material transported by the Neuse. Two different data transformation methods allowed trends to be identified in constituent concentrations. The methods recomputed the concentrations as if they were determined at a constant discharge over the period of record. Although little change since 1956 can be seen in most constituents, large changes in some constituents, such as increases in potassium and sulfate, indicate that the water quality of the Neuse River has noticeably deteriorated. Increases in sulfate are probably largely due to increased long-term inputs of sulfur compounds from airborne pollutants. (USGS)

Long-term trends in dissolved iron and DOC concentration linked to nitrate depletion in riparian soils

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Musolff, Andreas; Selle, Benny; Fleckenstein, Jan H.; Oosterwoud, Marieke R.; Tittel, Jörg

2016-04-01

The instream concentrations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) are rising in many catchments of the northern hemisphere. Elevated concentrations of DOC, mainly in the form of colored humic components, increase efforts and costs of drinking water purification. In this study, we evaluated a long-term dataset of 110 catchments draining into German drinking water reservoirs in order to assess sources of DOC and drivers of a potential long-term change. The average DOC concentrations across the wide range of different catchments were found to be well explained by the catchment's topographic wetness index. Higher wetness indices were connected to higher average DOC concentrations, which implies that catchments with shallow topography and pronounced riparian wetlands mobilize more DOC. Overall, 37% of the investigated catchments showed a significant long-term increase in DOC concentrations, while 22% exhibited significant negative trends. Moreover, we found that increasing trends in DOC were positively correlated to trends in dissolved iron concentrations at pH≤6 due to remobilization of DOC previously sorbed to iron minerals. Both, increasing trends in DOC and dissolve iron were found to be connected to decreasing trends and low concentrations of nitrate (below ~6 mg/L). This was especially observed in forested catchments where atmospheric N-depositions were the major source for nitrate availability. In these catchments, we also found long-term increases of phosphate concentrations. Therefore, we argue that dissolved iron, DOC and phosphate were jointly released under iron-reducing conditions when nitrate as a competing electron acceptor was too low in concentrations to prevent the microbial iron reduction. In contrast, we could not explain the observed increasing trends in DOC, iron and phosphate concentrations by the long-term trends of pH, sulfate or precipitation. Altogether this study gives strong evidence that both, source and long-term increases in DOC are

Long-Term Spectral Variability of the Spotted Star IN Com

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alekseev, I. Yu.; Kozlova, O. V.; Gorda, S. Yu.; Avvakumova, E. A.; Kozhevnikova, A. V.

2017-06-01

We present long-term (2004-2016) spectral observations (R = 20000) of IN Com in the regions of Hα, Hβ and He I 5876 Å lines. The unique feature of the stellar spectrum is the presence of the extended two-component emission with limits up to ± 400 km s-1 in the Hα line. Emission parameters show the rotation modulation with the stellar rotation period and a significant variability on the long-term scale. Similar emission is also observed in Hβ and He I 5876 Å lines. Our results allow us to conclude that observational emission profiles are formed in optically thin hot gas. It is a result of presence of a circumstellar gas disk around IN Com. Its size is not exceed several stellar radii. The matter for the disk is supported by stellar wind. Detected variability of Hα emission parameters shows evident relation with UBVRI photometric activity of the star. This fact allowed us to link the long-term spectral variability with cycles of stellar activity of IN Com.

Tracking Trends in Fractional Forest Cover Change using Long Term Data from AVHRR and MODIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, D. H.; DiMiceli, C.; Sohlberg, R. A.; Hansen, M.; Carroll, M.; Kelly, M.; Townshend, J. R.

2014-12-01

Tree cover affects terrestrial energy and water exchanges, photosynthesis and transpiration, net primary production, and carbon and nutrient fluxes. Accurate and long-term continuous observation of tree cover change is critical for the study of the gradual ecosystem change. Tree cover is most commonly inferred from categorical maps which may inadequately represent within-class heterogeneity for many analyses. Alternatively, Vegetation Continuous Fields data measures fractions or proportions of pixel area. Recent development in remote sensing data processing and cross sensor calibration techniques enabled the continuous, long-term observations such as Land Long-Term Data Records. Such data products and their surface reflectance data have enhanced the possibilities for long term Vegetation Continuous Fields data, thus enabling the estimation of long term trend of fractional forest cover change. In this presentation, we will summarize the progress in algorithm development including automation of training selection for deciduous and evergreen forest, the preliminary results, and its future applications to relate trends in fractional forest cover change and environmental change.

Water quality of the Neuse River, North Carolina - Variability, pollution loads, and long-term trends

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harned, Doughlas A.

1982-01-01

Interpretation of water-quality data collected by the U.S. Geological Survey for the Neuse River, North Carolina, has identified water-quality variations, charactrized the current condition of the river in reference to water-quality standards, estimated the degree of pollution caused by man, and evaluated long-term trends in concentrations of major dissolved constituents. Two sampling stations, Neuse River near Clayton (02087500) and Neuse River at Kinston (02089500) have more than 12 years of water-quality data collected during the period from 1955 to 1978. The Clayton station provides information on the upper fourth of the basin (1,129 mi 2) which includes several urbanized areas, including Raleigh, N.C., and part of Durham, N.C. The Kinston station provides information from the predominantly rural midsection of the basin (2,690 mi2). A network of temporary stations on small rural streams in the Neuse River and adjacent basins provide an estimate of baseline or es- sentially unpolluted water quality. Overall, the water quality of the Neuse River is satisfactory for most uses. However, dissolved-oxygen, iron, and manganese concentrations, pH, and bacterial concentrations often reach undesirable levels. Concentrations of cadmium, and lead also periodically peak at or above criterion levels for domestic water supply sources. Nutrient levels are generally high enough to allow rich algal growth. Sediment concentrations in the Neuse are high in comparison to pristine streams, however, the impacts of these high levels are difficult to quantify. Sediment and nutrient concentrations peak on the leading edge of flood discharges at Clayton. At Kinston, however, the discharge and sediment concentration peak almost simultaneously. Changes in algal dominance, from genera usually associated with organically enriched waters to genera that are less tolerant to organic enrichment, indicate improvement in water qualiy of the Neuse since 1973. These changes, along with a reduction

Long-Term Trends, Variability and Extremes of In Situ Sea Surface Temperature Measured Along the Eastern Adriatic Coast and its Relationship to Hemispheric Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grbec, Branka; Matić, Frano; Beg Paklar, Gordana; Morović, Mira; Popović, Ružica; Vilibić, Ivica

2018-02-01

This paper examines long-term series of in situ sea surface temperature (SST) data measured at nine coastal and one open sea stations along the eastern Adriatic Sea for the period 1959-2015. Monthly and yearly averages were used to document SST trends and variability, while clustering and connections to hemispheric indices were achieved by applying the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) method. Both PCA and SOM revealed the dominance of temporal changes with respect to the effects of spatial differences in SST anomalies, indicating the prevalence of hemispheric processes over local dynamics, such as bora wind spatial inhomogeneity. SST extremes were connected with blocking atmospheric patterns. A substantial warming between 1979 and 2015, in total exceeding 1 °C, was preceded by a period with a negative SST trend, implying strong multidecadal variability in the Adriatic. The strongest connection was found between yearly SST and the East Atlantic (EA) pattern, while North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and East Atlantic/West Russia (EAWR) patterns were found to also affect February SST values. Quantification of the Adriatic SST and their connection to hemispheric indices allow for more precise projections of future SST, considered to be rather important for Adriatic thermohaline circulation, biogeochemistry and fisheries, and sensitive to ongoing climate change.

High-Contrast Imaging of Intermediate-Mass Giants with Long-Term Radial Velocity Trends

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ryu, Tsuguru; Sato, Bun'ei; Kuzuhara, Masayuki; Narita, Norio; Takahashi, Yasuhiro; Uyama, Taichi; Kudo, Tomoyuki; Kusakabe, Nobuhiko; Hashimoto, Jun; Omiya, Masashi;

High-contrast Imaging of Intermediate-mass Giants with Long-term Radial Velocity Trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ryu, Tsuguru; Sato, Bun'ei; Kuzuhara, Masayuki; Narita, Norio; Takahashi, Yasuhiro H.; Uyama, Taichi; Kudo, Tomoyuki; Kusakabe, Nobuhiko; Hashimoto, Jun; Omiya, Masashi; Harakawa, Hiroki; Abe, Lyu; Ando, Hiroyasu; Brandner, Wolfgang; Brandt, Timothy D.; Carson, Joseph C.; Currie, Thayne; Egner, Sebastian; Feldt, Markus; Goto, Miwa; Grady, Carol A.; Guyon, Olivier; Hayano, Yutaka; Hayashi, Masahiko; Hayashi, Saeko S.; Hełminiak, Krzysztof G.; Henning, Thomas; Hodapp, Klaus W.; Ida, Shigeru; Ishii, Miki; Itoh, Yoichi; Iye, Masanori; Izumiura, Hideyuki; Janson, Markus; Kambe, Eiji; Kandori, Ryo; Knapp, Gillian R.; Kokubo, Eiichiro; Kwon, Jungmi; Matsuo, Taro; Mayama, Satoshi; McElwain, Michael W.; Mede, Kyle; Miyama, Shoken; Morino, Jun-Ichi; Moro-Martin, Amaya; Nishimura, Tetsuo; Pyo, Tae-Soo; Serabyn, Eugene; Suenaga, Takuya; Suto, Hiroshi; Suzuki, Ryuji; Takami, Michihiro; Takato, Naruhisa; Takeda, Yoichi; Terada, Hiroshi; Thalmann, Christian; Turner, Edwin L.; Watanabe, Makoto; Wisniewski, John; Yamada, Toru; Yoshida, Michitoshi; Takami, Hideki; Usuda, Tomonori; Tamura, Motohide

2016-07-01

A radial velocity (RV) survey for intermediate-mass giants has been in operation for over a decade at Okayama Astrophysical Observatory (OAO). The OAO survey has revealed that some giants show long-term linear RV accelerations (RV trends), indicating the presence of outer companions. Direct-imaging observations can help clarify what objects generate these RV trends. We present the results of high-contrast imaging observations of six intermediate-mass giants with long-term RV trends using the Subaru Telescope and HiCIAO camera. We detected co-moving companions to γ Hya B ({0.61}-0.14+0.12{M}⊙ ), HD 5608 B (0.10+/- 0.01{M}⊙ ), and HD 109272 B (0.28+/- 0.06{M}⊙ ). For the remaining targets (ι Dra, 18 Del, and HD 14067), we exclude companions more massive than 30-60 M Jup at projected separations of 1″-7″. We examine whether these directly imaged companions or unidentified long-period companions can account for the RV trends observed around the six giants. We find that the Kozai mechanism can explain the high eccentricity of the inner planets ι Dra b, HD 5608 b, and HD 14067 b.

Overview of the Long-term Ozone Trends and Uncertainties in the Stratosphere(LOTUS) SPARC Activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petropavlovskikh, I. V.; Hubert, D.; Godin-Beekman, S.; Damadeo, R. P.; Sofieva, V.; Hassler, B.

2017-12-01

WMO/UNEP Assessments on the state of the ozone layer (aka Ozone Assessments) require an accurate evaluation of both total ozone and ozone profile long-term trends. These trend results are of utmost importance in order to evaluate the success of the Montreal Protocol with regards to the recovery of the ozone layer and the effect of climate change on this recovery, in the main regions of the stratosphere (polar, mid-latitudes, tropics). A previous activity sponsored by SPARC, IO3C, IGACO-O3 and NDACC (SI2N) successfully provided estimates of ozone profile decreasing trend in the period 1979 - 1997 and recovery trend in the period 1998 -2012, from a variety of long term records, however its results were different from those published in the WMO 2014 Ozone Assessment report. For the WMO/UNEP 2018 Ozone Assessment, a clear understanding of ozone trends and their significance as a function of altitude and latitude is still needed, nearly 20 years after the peak of ozone depleting substances in the stratosphere. In the most recent years, new merged satellite data sets and long awaited homogenized ozonesonde data series have been produced. There is thus a strong interest in the scientific community to understand limitations in determining significance of ozone recovery. In order to address the issues left pending after the end of SI2N, a comprehensive evaluation of all long term data sets available together with their relative drifts was performed through the SPARC LOTUS (Long-term Ozone Trends and uncertainties in Stratosphere) activity. Evaluation of consistencies in results from various statistical trend regression models, sensitivity to the selection of predictors, evaluation of sampling-related uncertainties and impact of the measurement error propagation on ozone trend calculation was among subjects of investigation. This presentation will provide overview of the LOTUS project goals, provide highlights of the results and discuss the future goals.

Long-term Trends in the Solar Wind Proton Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elliott, Heather A.; McComas, David J.; DeForest, Craig E.

2016-11-01

We examine the long-term time evolution (1965-2015) of the relationships between solar wind proton temperature (T p) and speed (V p) and between the proton density (n p) and speed using OMNI solar wind observations taken near Earth. We find a long-term decrease in the proton temperature-speed (T p-V p) slope that lasted from 1972 to 2010, but has been trending upward since 2010. Since the solar wind proton density-speed (n p-V p) relationship is not linear like the T p-V p relationship, we perform power-law fits for n p-V p. The exponent (steepness in the n p-V p relationship) is correlated with the solar cycle. This exponent has a stronger correlation with current sheet tilt angle than with sunspot number because the sunspot number maxima vary considerably from cycle to cycle and the tilt angle maxima do not. To understand this finding, we examined the average n p for different speed ranges, and found that for the slow wind n p is highly correlated with the sunspot number, with a lag of approximately four years. The fast wind n p variation was less, but in phase with the cycle. This phase difference may contribute to the n p-V p exponent correlation with the solar cycle. These long-term trends are important since empirical formulas based on fits to T p and V p data are commonly used to identify interplanetary coronal mass ejections, but these formulas do not include any time dependence. Changes in the solar wind density over a solar cycle will create corresponding changes in the near-Earth space environment and the overall extent of the heliosphere.

Long-term forecasting of internet backbone traffic.

PubMed

Papagiannaki, Konstantina; Taft, Nina; Zhang, Zhi-Li; Diot, Christophe

2005-09-01

We introduce a methodology to predict when and where link additions/upgrades have to take place in an Internet protocol (IP) backbone network. Using simple network management protocol (SNMP) statistics, collected continuously since 1999, we compute aggregate demand between any two adjacent points of presence (PoPs) and look at its evolution at time scales larger than 1 h. We show that IP backbone traffic exhibits visible long term trends, strong periodicities, and variability at multiple time scales. Our methodology relies on the wavelet multiresolution analysis (MRA) and linear time series models. Using wavelet MRA, we smooth the collected measurements until we identify the overall long-term trend. The fluctuations around the obtained trend are further analyzed at multiple time scales. We show that the largest amount of variability in the original signal is due to its fluctuations at the 12-h time scale. We model inter-PoP aggregate demand as a multiple linear regression model, consisting of the two identified components. We show that this model accounts for 98% of the total energy in the original signal, while explaining 90% of its variance. Weekly approximations of those components can be accurately modeled with low-order autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. We show that forecasting the long term trend and the fluctuations of the traffic at the 12-h time scale yields accurate estimates for at least 6 months in the future.

Potential breeding distributions of U.S. birds predicted with both short-term variability and long-term average climate data.

PubMed

Bateman, Brooke L; Pidgeon, Anna M; Radeloff, Volker C; Flather, Curtis H; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Akçakaya, H Resit; Thogmartin, Wayne E; Albright, Thomas P; Vavrus, Stephen J; Heglund, Patricia J

2016-12-01

Climate conditions, such as temperature or precipitation, averaged over several decades strongly affect species distributions, as evidenced by experimental results and a plethora of models demonstrating statistical relations between species occurrences and long-term climate averages. However, long-term averages can conceal climate changes that have occurred in recent decades and may not capture actual species occurrence well because the distributions of species, especially at the edges of their range, are typically dynamic and may respond strongly to short-term climate variability. Our goal here was to test whether bird occurrence models can be predicted by either covariates based on short-term climate variability or on long-term climate averages. We parameterized species distribution models (SDMs) based on either short-term variability or long-term average climate covariates for 320 bird species in the conterminous USA and tested whether any life-history trait-based guilds were particularly sensitive to short-term conditions. Models including short-term climate variability performed well based on their cross-validated area-under-the-curve AUC score (0.85), as did models based on long-term climate averages (0.84). Similarly, both models performed well compared to independent presence/absence data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (independent AUC of 0.89 and 0.90, respectively). However, models based on short-term variability covariates more accurately classified true absences for most species (73% of true absences classified within the lowest quarter of environmental suitability vs. 68%). In addition, they have the advantage that they can reveal the dynamic relationship between species and their environment because they capture the spatial fluctuations of species potential breeding distributions. With this information, we can identify which species and guilds are sensitive to climate variability, identify sites of high conservation value where climate

Long-Term Warming Trends in Korea and Contribution of Urbanization: An Updated Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Bo-Joung; Kim, Yeon-Hee; Min, Seung-Ki; Kim, Maeng-Ki; Choi, Youngeun; Boo, Kyung-On; Shim, Sungbo

2017-10-01

This study conducted an updated analysis of the long-term temperature trends over South Korea and reassessed the contribution of the urbanization effect to the local warming trends. Linear trends were analyzed for three different periods over South Korea in order to consider possible inhomogeneity due to changes in the number of available stations: recent 103 years (1912-2014), 61 years (1954-2014), and 42 years (1973-2014). The local temperature has increased by 1.90°C, 1.35°C, and 0.99°C during the three periods, respectively, which are found 1.4-2.6 times larger than the global land mean trends. The countries located in the northern middle and high latitudes exhibit similar warming trends (about 1.5 times stronger than the global mean), suggesting a weak influence of urbanization on the local warming over South Korea. Urbanization contribution is assessed using two methods. First, results from "city minus rural" methods showed that 30-45% of the local warming trends during recent four decades are likely due to the urbanization effect, depending on station classification methods and analysis periods. Results from an "observation minus reanalysis" method using the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) data sets (v2 and v2c) indicated about 25-30% contribution of the urbanization effect to the local warming trend during the recent six decades. However, the urbanization contribution was estimated as low as 3-11% when considering the century-long period. Our results confirm large uncertainties in the estimation of urbanization contribution when using shorter-term periods and suggest that the urbanization contribution to the century-long warming trends could be much lower.

Long-term variability and changes in thunderstorm induced extreme precipitation in Slovakia over 1951-2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pecho, J.; Faško, P.; Bližák, V.; Kajaba, P.; Košálová, J.; Bochníček, O.; Lešková, L.

2012-04-01

It is well known that extreme precipitation associated with intensive rains, in summer induced mostly by local thunderstorm activity, could cause very significant problems in economical and social spheres of the countries. Heavy precipitation and consecutive flash-floods are the most serious weather-related hazards over the territory of Slovakia. The extreme precipitation analyses play a strategic role in many climatological and hydrological evaluations designed for the wide range of technical and engineering applications as well as climate change impact assessments. A thunderstorm, as a violent local storm produced by a cumulonimbus cloud and accompanied by thunder and lightning, represents extreme convective activity in the atmosphere depending upon the release of latent heat, by the condensation of water vapor, for most of its energy. Under the natural conditions of Slovakia the incidence of thunderstorms has been traditionally concentrated in the summer or warm half-year (Apr.-Sept.), but increasing air temperature resulting in higher water vapor content and more intense short-term precipitation is associated with more frequent thunderstorm occurrence in early spring as well as autumn. It is the main reason why the studies of thunderstorm phenomena have increased in Slovakia in recent years. It was found that thunderstorm occurrence, in terms of incidence of storm days, has profoundly changed particularly in spring season (~ 30 % in April and May). The present contribution is devoted to verifying the hypothesis that recently the precipitation has been more intense and significant shifts in seasonal incidence have occurred in particular regions in Slovakia. On the basis of the 60-year (1951-2010) meteorological observation series obtained from more than 20 synoptic stations, the analysis of trends and long-term variability of the days with thunderstorms and the accompanying precipitation for seasons was undertaken. Contribution also attempts to explain the main

Dynamic factor analysis of long-term growth trends of the intertidal seagrass Thalassia hemprichii in southern Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuo, Yi-Ming; Lin, Hsing-Juh

2010-01-01

We examined environmental factors which are most responsible for the 8-year temporal dynamics of the intertidal seagrass Thalassia hemprichii in southern Taiwan. A dynamic factor analysis (DFA), a dimension-reduction technique, was applied to identify common trends in a multivariate time series and the relationships between this series and interacting environmental variables. The results of dynamic factor models (DFMs) showed that the leaf growth rate of the seagrass was mainly influenced by salinity (Sal), tidal range (TR), turbidity ( K), and a common trend representing an unexplained variability in the observed time series. Sal was the primary variable that explained the temporal dynamics of the leaf growth rate compared to TR and K. K and TR had larger influences on the leaf growth rate in low- than in high-elevation beds. In addition to K, TR, and Sal, UV-B radiation (UV-B), sediment depth (SD), and a common trend accounted for long-term temporal variations of the above-ground biomass. Thus, K, TR, Sal, UV-B, and SD are the predominant environmental variables that described temporal growth variations of the intertidal seagrass T. hemprichii in southern Taiwan. In addition to environmental variables, human activities may be contributing to negative impacts on the seagrass beds; this human interference may have been responsible for the unexplained common trend in the DFMs. Due to successfully applying the DFA to analyze complicated ecological and environmental data in this study, important environmental variables and impacts of human activities along the coast should be taken into account when managing a coastal environment for the conservation of intertidal seagrass beds.

Trends in Mortality of Tuberculosis Patients in the United States: The Long-term Perspective

PubMed Central

Barnes, Richard F.W.; Moore, Maria Luisa; Garfein, Richard S.; Brodine, Stephanie; Strathdee, Steffanie A.; Rodwell, Timothy C.

2011-01-01

PURPOSE To describe long-term trends in TB mortality and to compare trends estimated from two different sources of public health surveillance data. METHODS Trends and changes in trend were estimated by joinpoint regression. Comparisons between datasets were made by fitting a Poisson regression model. RESULTS Since 1900, TB mortality rates estimated from death certificates have declined steeply, except for a period of no change in the 1980s. This decade had long-term consequences resulting in more TB deaths in later years than would have occurred had there been no flattening of the trend. Recent trends in TB mortality estimated from National Tuberculosis Surveillance System (NTSS) data, which record all-cause mortality, differed from trends based on death certificates. In particular, NTSS data showed TB mortality rates flattening since 2002. CONCLUSIONS Estimates of trends in TB mortality vary by data source, and therefore interpretation of the success of control efforts will depend upon the surveillance dataset used. The datasets may be subject to different biases that vary with time. One dataset showed a sustained improvement in the control of TB since the early 1990s while the other indicated that the rate of TB mortality was no longer declining. PMID:21820320

Long-term trends in fire behavior and changes in population at risk

EPA Science Inventory

Long-term trends in fire behavior and changes in population at risk Rappold AG, Peterson GC, US EPA Matt Jolly, USFS Air pollution regulations and technological advances have successfully reduced emissions of air pollutants from many anthropogenic sources in recent decades. Duri...

Long-Term Trends and Variability in Spring Development of Calanus finmarchicus in the Southeastern Norwegian Sea during 1996-2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dupont, N.; Bagøien, E.; Melle, W.

2016-02-01

Calanus finmarchicus is the dominant copepod species in the Norwegian Sea in terms of biomass, playing a key role in the ecosystem by transferring energy from primary producers to higher trophic levels. This study analyses the long-term trend of a 17-year time series (1996-2012) on abundance of adult Calanus finmarchicus in the Atlantic water-mass of the southern Norwegian Sea during spring. The long-term trend in spring abundance was assessed by using Generalised Additive Models, while simultaneously accounting for both general population development and inter-annual variation in population development throughout the study period. In one model, we focus on inter-annual changes in timing of the Calanus spring seasonal development by including Mean Stage Composition as a measure for state of population development. Following a short increase during the years 1996 to 2000, the abundance of Calanus finmarchicus decreased strongly until about the year 2010. For the two last years of the studied period, 2011-2012, increasing population abundances are suggested but with less certainty. The model results suggest that the analysis is capturing the G0 generation, displaying a peak for the adults in about mid-April. Inter-annual differences in spring seasonal development, with the peak of adults shifting towards earlier in the season as well as a shorter generation time are suggested. Considering the importance of Calanus finmarchicus as food for planktivorous predators in the Norwegian Sea, our time series analysis suggests relevant changes both with respect to the spring abundance and timing of this food source. The next step is to relate variation in the Calanus time series to environmental factors with special emphasis on climatic drivers.

Long term trending of engineering data for the Hubble Space Telescope

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cox, Ross M.

1993-01-01

A major goal in spacecraft engineering analysis is the detection of component failures before the fact. Trending is the process of monitoring subsystem states to discern unusual behaviors. This involves reducing vast amounts of data about a component or subsystem into a form that helps humans discern underlying patterns and correlations. A long term trending system has been developed for the Hubble Space Telescope. Besides processing the data for 988 distinct telemetry measurements each day, it produces plots of 477 important parameters for the entire 24 hours. Daily updates to the trend files also produce 339 thirty day trend plots each month. The total system combines command procedures to control the execution of the C-based data processing program, user-written FORTRAN routines, and commercial off-the-shelf plotting software. This paper includes a discussion the performance of the trending system and of its limitations.

Long-term variations and trends in the polar E-region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bjoland, L. M.; Ogawa, Y.; Hall, C.; Rietveld, M.; Løvhaug, U. P.; La Hoz, C.; Miyaoka, H.

2017-10-01

As the EISCAT UHF radar system in Northern Scandinavia started its operations in the early 1980s, the collected data cover about three solar cycles. These long time-series provide us the opportunity to study long-term variations and trends of ionospheric parameters in the high latitude region. In the present study we have used the EISCAT Tromsø UHF data to investigate variations of the Hall conductivity and ion temperatures in the E-region around noon. Both the ion temperature and the peak altitude of the Hall conductivity are confirmed to depend strongly on solar zenith angle. However, the dependence on solar activity seems to be weak. In order to search for trends in these parameters, the ion temperature and peak altitude of the Hall conductivity data were adjusted for their seasonal and solar cycle dependence. A very weak descent (∼0.2 km/ decade) was seen in the peak altitude of the Hall conductivity. The ion temperature at 110 km shows a cooling trend (∼10 K/ decade). However, other parameters than solar zenith angle and solar activity seem to affect the ion temperature at this altitude, and a better understanding of these parameters is necessary to derive a conclusive trend. In this paper, we discuss what may cause the characteristics of the variations in the electric conductivities and ion temperatures in the high latitude region.

Detecting Long-term Trend of Water Quality Indices of Dong-gang River, Taiwan Using Quantile Regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, D.; Shiau, J.

2013-12-01

ABSTRACT BODY: Abstract Surface water quality is an essential issue in water-supply for human uses and sustaining healthy ecosystem of rivers. However, water quality of rivers is easily influenced by anthropogenic activities such as urban development and wastewater disposal. Long-term monitoring of water quality can assess whether water quality of rivers deteriorates or not. Taiwan is a population-dense area and heavily depends on surface water for domestic, industrial, and agricultural uses. Dong-gang River is one of major resources in southern Taiwan for agricultural requirements. The water-quality data of four monitoring stations of the Dong-gang River for the period of 2000-2012 are selected for trend analysis. The parameters used to characterize water quality of rivers include biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), dissolved oxygen (DO), suspended solids (SS), and ammonia nitrogen (NH3-N). These four water-quality parameters are integrated into an index called river pollution index (RPI) to indicate the pollution level of rivers. Although widely used non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and linear regression exhibit computational efficiency to identify trends of water-quality indices, limitations of such approaches include sensitive to outliers and estimations of conditional mean only. Quantile regression, capable of identifying changes over time of any percentile values, is employed in this study to detect long-term trend of water-quality indices for the Dong-gang River located in southern Taiwan. The results show that Dong-gang River 4 stations from 2000 to 2012 monthly long-term trends in water quality.To analyze s Dong-gang River long-term water quality trends and pollution characteristics. The results showed that the bridge measuring ammonia Long-dong, BOD5 measure in that station on a downward trend, DO, and SS is on the rise, River Pollution Index (RPI) on a downward trend. The results form Chau-Jhou station also ahowed simialar trends .more and more near the

Modeling the Impacts of Long-Term Warming Trends on Gross Primary Productivity Across North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mekonnen, Z. A.; Grant, R. F.

2014-12-01

There is evidence of warming over recent decades in most regions of North America (NA) that affects ecosystem productivity and the past decade has been the warmest since instrumental records of global surface temperatures began. In this study, we examined the spatial and temporal variability and trends of warming across NA using climate data from the North America Regional Reanalysis (NARR) from 1979 to 2010 with a 3-hourly time-step and 0.250 x 0.250 spatial resolution as part of the Multi-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP). A comprehensive mathematical process model, ecosys was used to simulate impacts of this variability in warming on gross primary productivity (GPP). In a test of model results, annual GPP modeled for pixels which corresponded to the locations of 25 eddy covariance towers correlated well (R2=0.76) with annual GPP derived from the flux towers in 2005. At the continental scale long-term (2000 - 2010) annual average modeled GPP for NA correlated well (geographically weighed regression R2 = 0.8) with MODIS GPP, demonstrating close similarities in spatial patterns. Results from the NARR indicated that most areas of NA, particularly high latitude regions, have experienced warming but changes in precipitation vary spatially over the last three decades. GPP modeled in most areas with lower mean annual air temperature (Ta), such as those in boreal climate zones, increased due to early spring and late autumn warming observed in NARR. However modeled GPP declined in most southwestern regions of NA, due to water stress from rising Ta and declining precipitation. Overall, GPP modeled across NA had a positive trend of +0.025 P g C yr-1 with a range of -1.16 to 0.87 P g C yr-1 from the long-term mean. Interannual variability of GPP was the greatest in southwest of US and part of the Great Plains, which could be as a result of frequent El Niño-Southern Oscillation' (ENSO) events that led to major droughts.

Long-term trend of satellite-observed significant wave height and impact on ecosystem in the East/Japan Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woo, Hye-Jin; Park, Kyung-Ae

2017-09-01

Significant wave height (SWH) data of nine satellite altimeters were validated with in-situ SWH measurements from buoy stations in the East/Japan Sea (EJS) and the Northwest Pacific Ocean. The spatial and temporal variability of extreme SWHs was investigated by defining the 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles based on percentile analysis. The annual mean of extreme SWHs was dramatically increased by 3.45 m in the EJS, which is significantly higher than the normal mean of about 1.44 m. The spatial distributions of SWHs showed significantly higher values in the eastern region of the EJS than those in the western part. Characteristic seasonality was found from the time-series SWHs with high SWHs (>2.5 m) in winter but low values (<1 m) in summer. The trends of the normal and extreme (99th percentile) SWHs in the EJS had a positive value of 0.0056 m year-1 and 0.0125 m year-1, respectively. The long-term trend demonstrated that higher SWH values were more extreme with time during the past decades. The predominant spatial distinctions between the coastal regions in the marginal seas of the Northwest Pacific Ocean and open ocean regions were presented. In spring, both normal and extreme SWHs showed substantially increasing trends in the EJS. Finally, we first presented the impact of the long-term trend of extreme SWHs on the marine ecosystem through vertical mixing enhancement in the upper ocean of the EJS.

Long-term trends from ecosystem research at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest

Treesearch

John L. Campbell; Charles T. Driscoll; Christopher Eagar; Gene E. Likens; Thomas G. Siccama; Chris E. Johnson; Timothy J. Fahey; Steven P. Hamburg; Richard T. Holmes; Amey S. Bailey; Donald C. Buso

2007-01-01

Summarizes 52 years of collaborative, long-term research conducted at the Hubbard Brook (NH) Experimental Forest on ecosystem response to disturbances such as air pollution, climate change, forest disturbance, and forest management practices. Also provides explanations of some of the trends and lists references from scientific literature for further reading.

Glucose variability negatively impacts long-term functional outcome in patients with traumatic brain injury.

PubMed

Matsushima, Kazuhide; Peng, Monica; Velasco, Carlos; Schaefer, Eric; Diaz-Arrastia, Ramon; Frankel, Heidi

2012-04-01

Significant glycemic excursions (so-called glucose variability) affect the outcome of generic critically ill patients but has not been well studied in patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI). The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impact of glucose variability on long-term functional outcome of patients with TBI. A noncomputerized tight glucose control protocol was used in our intensivist model surgical intensive care unit. The relationship between the glucose variability and long-term (a median of 6 months after injury) functional outcome defined by extended Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOSE) was analyzed using ordinal logistic regression models. Glucose variability was defined by SD and percentage of excursion (POE) from the preset range glucose level. A total of 109 patients with TBI under tight glucose control had long-term GOSE evaluated. In univariable analysis, there was a significant association between lower GOSE score and higher mean glucose, higher SD, POE more than 60, POE 80 to 150, and single episode of glucose less than 60 mg/dL but not POE 80 to 110. After adjusting for possible confounding variables in multivariable ordinal logistic regression models, higher SD, POE more than 60, POE 80 to 150, and single episode of glucose less than 60 mg/dL were significantly associated with lower GOSE score. Glucose variability was significantly associated with poorer long-term functional outcome in patients with TBI as measured by the GOSE score. Well-designed protocols to minimize glucose variability may be key in improving long-term functional outcome. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Long-term patterns of air temperatures, daily temperature range, precipitation, grass-reference evapotranspiration and aridity index in the USA great plains: Part II. Temporal trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kukal, M.; Irmak, S.

2016-11-01

Detection of long-term changes in climate variables over large spatial scales is a very important prerequisite to the development of effective mitigation and adaptation measures for the future potential climate change and for developing strategies for future hydrologic balance analyses under changing climate. Moreover, there is a need for effective approaches of providing information about these changes to decision makers, water managers and stakeholders to aid in efficient implementation of the developed strategies. This study involves computation, mapping and analyses of long-term (1968-2013) county-specific trends in annual, growing-season (1st May-30th September) and monthly air temperatures [(maximum (Tmax), minimum (Tmin) and average (Tavg)], daily temperature range (DTR), precipitation, grass reference evapotranspiration (ETo) and aridity index (AI) over the USA Great Plains region using datasets from over 800 weather station sites. Positive trends in annual Tavg, Tmax and Tmin, DTR, precipitation, ETo and AI were observed in 71%, 89%, 85%, 31%, 61%, 38% and 66% of the counties in the region, respectively, whereas these proportions were 48%, 89%, 62%, 20%, 57%, 28%, and 63%, respectively, for the growing-season averages of the same variables. On a regional average basis, the positive trends in growing-season Tavg, Tmax and Tmin, DTR, precipitation, ETo and AI were 0.18 °C decade-1, 0.19 °C decade-1, 0.17 °C decade-1, 0.09 °C decade-1, 1.12 mm yr-1, 0.4 mm yr-1 and 0.02 decade-1, respectively, and the negative trends were 0.21 °C decade-1, 0.06 °C decade-1, 0.09 °C decade-1, 0.22 °C decade-1, 1.16 mm yr-1, 0.76 mm yr-1 and 0.02 decade-1, respectively. The temporal trends were highly variable in space and were appropriately represented using monthly, annual and growing-season maps developed using Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques. The long-term and spatial and temporal information and data for a large region provided in this study can be

Do climate model predictions agree with long-term precipitation trends in the arid southwestern United States?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elias, E.; Rango, A.; James, D.; Maxwell, C.; Anderson, J.; Abatzoglou, J. T.

2016-12-01

Researchers evaluating climate projections across southwestern North America observed a decreasing precipitation trend. Aridification was most pronounced in the cold (non-monsoonal) season, whereas downward trends in precipitation were smaller in the warm (monsoonal) season. In this region, based upon a multimodel mean of 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 models using a business-as-usual (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) trajectory, midcentury precipitation is projected to increase slightly during the monsoonal time period (July-September; 6%) and decrease slightly during the remainder of the year (October-June; -4%). We use observed long-term (1915-2015) monthly precipitation records from 16 weather stations to investigate how well measured trends corroborate climate model predictions during the monsoonal and non-monsoonal timeframe. Running trend analysis using the Mann-Kendall test for 15 to 101 year moving windows reveals that half the stations showed significant (p≤0.1), albeit small, increasing trends based on the longest term record. Trends based on shorter-term records reveal a period of significant precipitation decline at all stations representing the 1950s drought. Trends from 1930 to 2015 reveal significant annual, monsoonal and non-monsoonal increases in precipitation (Fig 1). The 1960 to 2015 time window shows no significant precipitation trends. The more recent time window (1980 to 2015) shows a slight, but not significant, increase in monsoonal precipitation and a larger, significant decline in non-monsoonal precipitation. GCM precipitation projections are consistent with more recent trends for the region. Running trends from the most recent time window (mid-1990s to 2015) at all stations show increasing monsoonal precipitation and decreasing Oct-Jun precipitation, with significant trends at 6 of 16 stations. Running trend analysis revealed that the long-term trends were not persistent throughout the series length, but depended

Does ecosystem variability explain phytoplankton diversity? Solving an ecological puzzle with long-term data sets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarker, Subrata; Lemke, Peter; Wiltshire, Karen H.

2018-05-01

Explaining species diversity as a function of ecosystem variability is a long-term discussion in community-ecology research. Here, we aimed to establish a causal relationship between ecosystem variability and phytoplankton diversity in a shallow-sea ecosystem. We used long-term data on biotic and abiotic factors from Helgoland Roads, along with climate data to assess the effect of ecosystem variability on phytoplankton diversity. A point cumulative semi-variogram method was used to estimate the long-term ecosystem variability. A Markov chain model was used to estimate dynamical processes of species i.e. occurrence, absence and outcompete probability. We identified that the 1980s was a period of high ecosystem variability while the last two decades were comparatively less variable. Ecosystem variability was found as an important predictor of phytoplankton diversity at Helgoland Roads. High diversity was related to low ecosystem variability due to non-significant relationship between probability of a species occurrence and absence, significant negative relationship between probability of a species occurrence and probability of a species to be outcompeted by others, and high species occurrence at low ecosystem variability. Using an exceptional marine long-term data set, this study established a causal relationship between ecosystem variability and phytoplankton diversity.

Identification of trend in long term precipitation and reference evapotranspiration over Narmada river basin (India)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pandey, Brij Kishor; Khare, Deepak

2018-02-01

Precipitation and reference evapotranspiration are key parameters in hydro-meteorological studies and used for agricultural planning, irrigation system design and management. Precipitation and evaporative demand are expected to be alter under climate change and affect the sustainable development. In this article, spatial variability and temporal trend of precipitation and reference evapotranspiration (ETo) were investigated over Narmada river basin (India), a humid tropical climatic region. In the present study, 12 and 28 observatory stations were selected for precipitation and ETo, respectively of 102-years period (1901-2002). A rigorous analysis for trend detection was carried out using non parametric tests such as Mann-Kendall (MK) and Spearman Rho (SR). Sen's slope estimator was used to analyze the rate of change in long term series. Moreover, all the stations of basin exhibit positive trend for annual ETo, while 8% stations indicate significant negative trend for mean annual precipitation, respectively. Change points of annual precipitation were identified around the year 1962 applying Buishand's and Pettit's test. Annual mean precipitation reduced by 9% in upper part while increased maximum by 5% in lower part of the basin due temporal changes. Although annual mean ETo increase by 4-12% in most of the region. Moreover, results of the study are very helpful in planning and development of agricultural water resources.

Long and Short Term Variability of the Main Physical Parameters in the Coastal Area of the SE Baltic Proper

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mingelaite, Toma; Rukseniene, Viktorija; Dailidiene, Inga

2015-04-01

Keywords: SE Baltic Sea, coastal upwelling, IR Remote Sensing The memory of the ocean and seas of atmospheric forcing events contributes to the long-term climate change. Intensifying climate change processes in the North Atlantic region including Baltic Sea has drawn widespread interest, as a changing water temperature has ecological, economic and social impact in coastal areas of the Europe seas. In this work we analyse long and short term variability of the main physical parameters in the coastal area of the South Eastern Baltic Sea Proper. The analysis of long term variability is based on monitoring data measured in the South Eastern Baltic Sea for the last 50 years. The main focus of the long term variability is changes of hydro meteorological parameters relevant to the observed changes in the climate.The water salinity variations in the Baltic Sea near the Lithuanian coast and in the Curonian Lagoon, a shallow and enclosed sub-basin of the Baltic Sea, were analysed along with the time series of some related hydroclimatic factors. The short term water temperature and salinity variations were analysed with a strong focus on coastal upwelling events. Combining both remote sensing and in situ monitoring data physical parameters such as vertical salinity variations during upwelling events was analysed. The coastal upwelling in the SE Baltic Sea coast, depending on its scale and intensity, may lead to an intrusion of colder and saltier marine waters to the Curonian Lagoon resulting in hydrodynamic changes and pronounced temperature drop extending for 30-40 km further down the Lagoon. The study results show that increasing trends of water level, air and water temperature, and decreasing ice cover duration are related to the changes in meso-scale atmospheric circulation, and more specifically, to the changes in regional and local wind regime climate. That is in a good agreement with the increasing trends in local higher intensity of westerly winds, and with the winter

Long-term Observations of Intense Precipitation Small-scale Spatial Variability in a Semi-arid Catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cropp, E. L.; Hazenberg, P.; Castro, C. L.; Demaria, E. M.

2017-12-01

In the southwestern US, the summertime North American Monsoon (NAM) provides about 60% of the region's annual precipitation. Recent research using high-resolution atmospheric model simulations and retrospective predictions has shown that since the 1950's, and more specifically in the last few decades, the mean daily precipitation in the southwestern U.S. during the NAM has followed a decreasing trend. Furthermore, days with more extreme precipitation have intensified. The current work focuses the impact of these long-term changes on the observed small-scale spatial variability of intense precipitation. Since limited long-term high-resolution observational data exist to support such climatological-induced spatial changes in precipitation frequency and intensity, the current work utilizes observations from the USDA-ARS Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed (WGEW) in southeastern Arizona. Within this 150 km^2 catchment over 90 rain gauges have been installed since the 1950s, measuring at sub-hourly resolution. We have applied geospatial analyses and the kriging interpolation technique to identify long-term changes in the spatial and temporal correlation and anisotropy of intense precipitation. The observed results will be compared with the previously model simulated results, as well as related to large-scale variations in climate patterns, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO).

Long-term trends in the total electron content (TEC)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laštovička, Jan

2017-04-01

The long-term trends in the total electron content (TEC) have very little been studied. Lean et al. (2011; J. Geophys. Res., 116, A00H04, doi:10.1029/2010JA016378) studied trends in TEC globally based on JPL maps for 1995-2010. However, their trends appear to be too positive, which is not plausible taking into account the trends in other ionospheric parameters. Therefore they prefer the less positive trends calculated under the assumption of the same level of solar activity in solar cycle minima 22/23 and 23/24. However, as it is now clear, this is not a correct assumption. Lastovicka (2013; J. Geophys. Res. Space Phys., 118, 3831-3835, doi:10.1002/jgra.50261) selected a region around Florence, Italy, as a region with available historical TEC data based on Faraday rotation measurements and remarkably larger than average trends in TEC by Lean et al. (2011). Historical data from Florence provide no trend in TEC. However, foF2 from Juliusruh provide slight negative trends for 1976-1996 but no trends for 1995-2010. Thus the question of reality of trends by Lean et al. (2011) remained open. Here we use TEC from GIM and JPL data for two European regions with high Lean's trends, regions around Florence and around Prague, using 10-14 LT medians, 1998-2015, yearly average values. A classical approach is applied. First a model of solar activity dependence of TEC is constructed separately for each region from all data. Then model data are subtracted from experimental data and analysis is made with residuals. This analysis shows that early data (1998-2001) are by several TECU lower than they should be according to solar activity, the year 2002 is intermediate and in 2003-2015 the data fit well a weak or rather no trend of TEC. The change in TEC data does not seem to be jump-like, it lasted at least a year, if not longer. Thus the positive TEC trends reported by Lean et al. (2011) appear to be affected by data problem; real trends are evidently less positive if any.

Long-term variability of wind patterns at hub-height over Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jung, J.; Jeon, W.; Choi, Y.; Souri, A.

2017-12-01

Wind energy is getting more attention because of its environmentally friendly attributes. Texas is a state with significant capacity and number of wind turbines. Wind power generation is significantly affected by wind patterns, and it is important to understand this seasonal and decadal variability for long-term power generation from wind turbines. This study focused on the trends of changes in wind pattern and its strength at two hub-heights (80 m and 110 m) over 30-years (1986 to 2015). We only analyzed summer data(June to September) because of concentrated electricity usage in Texas. We extracted hub-height wind data (U and V components) from the three-hourly National Centers for Environmental Prediction-North American Regional Reanalysis (NCEP-NARR) and classified wind patterns properly by using nonhierarchical K-means method. Hub-height wind patterns in summer seasons of 1986 to 2015 were classified in six classes at day and seven classes at night. Mean wind speed was 4.6 ms-1 at day and 5.4 ms-1 at night, but showed large variability in time and space. We combined each cluster's frequencies and wind speed tendencies with large scale atmospheric circulation features and quantified the amount of wind power generation.

Variable Renewable Energy in Long-Term Planning Models: A Multi-Model Perspective

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cole, Wesley; Frew, Bethany; Mai, Trieu

Long-term capacity expansion models of the U.S. electricity sector have long been used to inform electric sector stakeholders and decision-makers. With the recent surge in variable renewable energy (VRE) generators — primarily wind and solar photovoltaics — the need to appropriately represent VRE generators in these long-term models has increased. VRE generators are especially difficult to represent for a variety of reasons, including their variability, uncertainty, and spatial diversity. This report summarizes the analyses and model experiments that were conducted as part of two workshops on modeling VRE for national-scale capacity expansion models. It discusses the various methods for treatingmore » VRE among four modeling teams from the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). The report reviews the findings from the two workshops and emphasizes the areas where there is still need for additional research and development on analysis tools to incorporate VRE into long-term planning and decision-making. This research is intended to inform the energy modeling community on the modeling of variable renewable resources, and is not intended to advocate for or against any particular energy technologies, resources, or policies.« less

Long-term trends of bloater (Coregonus hoyi) recruitment in Lake Michigan: evidence for the effect of sex ratio

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bunnell, David B.; Madenjian, Charles P.; Croley, Thomas E.

2006-01-01

Long-term population trends are generally explained by factors extrinsic (e.g., climate, predation) rather than intrinsic (e.g., genetics, maternal effects) to the population. We sought to understand the long-term population dynamics of an important native Lake Michigan prey fish, the bloaterCoregonus hoyi. Over a 38-year time series, three 10- to 15-year phases occurred (poor, excellent, and then poor recruitment) without high interannual variability within a particular phase. We used dynamic linear models to determine whether extrinsic (winter and spring temperature, alewife predator densities) or intrinsic factors (population egg production, adult condition, adult sex ratio) explained variation in recruitment. Models that included population egg production, sex ratio, winter and spring temperature, and adult bloater condition explained the most variation. Of these variables, sex ratio, which ranged from 47% to 97% female across the time series, consistently had the greatest effect: recruitment declined with female predominance. Including biomass of adult alewife predators in the models did not explain additional variation. Overall our results indicated that bloater recruitment is linked to its sex ratio, but understanding the underlying mechanisms will require additional efforts.

Long-term variability and environmental preferences of calycophoran siphonophores in the Bay of Villefranche (north-western Mediterranean)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Licandro, P.; Souissi, S.; Ibanez, F.; Carré, C.

2012-05-01

Long-term variability of the main calycophoran siphonophores was investigated between 1974 and 1999 in a coastal station in the north-western Mediterranean. The data were collected at weekly frequency using a macroplankton net (680 μm mesh size) adapted to quantitatively sample delicate gelatinous plankton. A 3-year collection (1967-1969) of siphonophores from offshore waters using the same methodology showed that the patterns of variability observed inshore were representative of siphonophores’ changes at a regional scale. The aims of the study were: (i) to investigate the patterns of variability that characterised the dominant calycophoran species and assemblages; (ii) to identify the environmental optima that were associated with a significant increase in the dominant siphonophore species and (iii) to verify the influence of hydroclimatic variability on long-term changes of siphonophores. Our results showed that during nearly 3 decades the standing stock of calycophoran siphonophores did not show any significant change, with the annual maximum usually recorded in spring as a result of high densities of the dominant species Lensia subtilis, Muggiaea kochi and Muggiaea atlantica. Nevertheless, major changes in community composition occurred within the calycophoran population. Since the middle 1980s, M. kochi, once the most dominant species, started to decrease allowing other species, the congeneric M. atlantica and Chelophyes appendiculata, to increasingly dominate in spring and summer-autumn, respectively. The comparison of environmental and biotic long-term trends suggests that the decrease of M. kochi was triggered by hydrological changes that occurred in the north-western Mediterranean under the forcing of large-scale climate oscillations. Salinity, water stratification and water temperature were the main hydroclimatic factors associated with a significant increase of siphonophores, different species showing different environmental preferences.

Global assessment of surfing conditions: seasonal, interannual and long-term variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Espejo, A.; Losada, I.; Mendez, F.

2012-12-01

International surfing destinations owe a great debt to specific combinations of wind-wave, thermal conditions and local bathymetry. As surf quality depends on a vast number of geophysical variables, a multivariable standardized index on the basis of expert judgment is proposed to analyze surf resource in a worldwide domain. Data needed is obtained by combining several datasets (reanalyses): 60-year satellite-calibrated spectral wave hindcast (GOW, WaveWatchIII), wind fields from NCEP/NCAR, global sea surface temperature from ERSST.v3b, and global tides from TPXO7.1. A summary of the global surf resource is presented, which highlights the high degree of variability in surfable events. According to general atmospheric circulation, results show that west facing low to middle latitude coasts are more suitable for surfing, especially those in Southern Hemisphere. Month to month analysis reveals strong seasonal changes in the occurrence of surfable events, enhancing those in North Atlantic or North Pacific. Interannual variability is investigated by comparing occurrence values with global and regional climate patterns showing a great influence at both, global and regional scales. Analysis of long term trends shows an increase in the probability of surfable events over the west facing coasts on the planet (i.e. + 30 hours/year in California). The resulting maps provide useful information for surfers and surf related stakeholders, coastal planning, education, and basic research.; Figure 1. Global distribution of medium quality (a) and high quality surf conditions probability (b).

Climate-tree growth models in relation to long-term growth trends of white oak in Pennsylvania

Treesearch

D. D. Davis; R. P. Long

2003-01-01

We examined long-term growth trends of white oak by comparing tree-ring chronologies developed from an old-growth stand, where the average tree age was 222 years, with a second-growth stand where average tree age was 78 years. Evaluation of basal area growth trends suggested that an anomalous decrease in basal area increment trend occurred in both stands during the...

Long-term warming trends in Korea and contribution of urbanization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, B.; Min, S. K.; Kim, Y. H.; Kim, M. K.; Choi, Y.; Boo, K. O.

2016-12-01

This study provides a systematic investigation of the long-term temperature trends over Korean peninsula in comparison with global temperature trends and presents an updated assessment of the contribution of urban effect. Linear trends are analyzed for three different periods over South Korea in order to consider inhomogeneity due to changes in number of stations: recent 103 years (1912-2014, 6 stations), 61 years (1954-2014, 12 stations) and 42 years (1973-2014, 48 stations). HadCRUT4, MLOST and GISS datasets are used to obtain temperature trends in global mean and each country scales for the same periods. The temperature over South Korea has increased by 1.90°C, 1.35°C, and 0.99°C during 103, 61, and 42 years, respectively. This is equivalent to 1.4-2.6 times larger warming than the global mean trends. The countries located in the Northern mid latitudes exhibit slightly weaker warming trends to Korea (about 1.5 times stronger than of global means), suggesting a considerable impact of urbanization on the local warming over Korea. Updated analyses of the urbanization effect on temperature trends over South Korea suggest that 10-45% of the warming trends are due to urbanization effect, with stronger contributions during the recent decades. First, we compared the recent 42-year temperature trends between city and rural stations using the two approaches based on previous studies. Results show that urbanization effect has contributed to 30-45% of the temperature trends. Secondly, the contribution of urbanization to the temperature increase over Korea has been indirectly estimated using 56 ensemble members of 20CRv2 reanalysis data that include no influence of urbanization. Analysis results for the three periods indicate that urbanization effect could have contributed to the local warming over Korea by 10-25%.

Long-term trends in adolescent and young adult smoking in the United States: metapatterns and implications.

PubMed

Nelson, David E; Mowery, Paul; Asman, Kat; Pederson, Linda L; O'Malley, Patrick M; Malarcher, Ann; Maibach, Edward W; Pechacek, Terry F

2008-05-01

We sought to describe long-term adolescent and young adult smoking trends and patterns. We analyzed adolescent data from Monitoring the Future, 1976 to 2005, and young adult (aged 18-24 years) data from the National Health Interview Survey, 1974 to 2005, overall and in subpopulations to identify trends in current cigarette smoking prevalence. Five metapatterns emerged: we found (1) a large increase and subsequent decrease in overall smoking over the past 15 years, (2) a steep decline in smoking among Blacks through the early 1990s, (3) a gender gap reversal among older adolescents and young adults who smoked over the past 15 years, (4) similar trends in smoking for most subgroups since the early 1990s, and (5) a large decline in smoking among young adults with less than a high school education. Long-term patterns for adolescent and young adult cigarette smoking were decidedly nonlinear, and we found evidence of a cohort effect among young adults. Continued strong efforts and a long-term societal commitment to tobacco use prevention are needed, given the unprecedented declines in smoking among most subpopulations since the mid- to late 1990s.

Long-term variability of supratidal coastal boulder activation in Brittany (France)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Autret, Ronan; Dodet, Guillaume; Suanez, Serge; Roudaut, Gildas; Fichaut, Bernard

2018-03-01

High-energy supratidal coastal boulder deposit (SCBD) dynamics were investigated on Vierge Island and Pors Carn Point, north and south of western Brittany, France, respectively. Morphological changes induced by boulder transport and quarrying were quantified using high-resolution topographic survey data taken between 2012 and 2017. Additional in-situ wave parameters and water levels were also recorded over this period (2014-2017) in order to compute the maximum water levels and assess the relationship between SCBD morphological changes and specific hydrodynamic conditions. During extreme water levels (for maximum water levels exceeding a one in ten year event), SCBDs were broadly reworked (up to 40% of the total volume). During lower intensity events, for which maximum water levels were still very high, morphological changes represented 1% to 5% of the total volume. These morphological and hydrodynamic observations were then used to calibrate a chronology of SCBD activation events based on 70 years of hindcast winter maximum water levels. These long-term time-series showed great interannual variability in SCBD activation but no significant long-term trend. Winter-frequency SCBD activation was better correlated to the WEPA index (r = 0.46) than the NAO index (r = 0.1). Therefore, the WEPA index can be considered to be a more significant climate proxy for assessing storm-related geomorphic changes in the temperate latitudes of the N-E Atlantic basin (36°-52° N), including the Brittany coast. The potential of SCBDs as a morphological storm proxy for macrotidal high-energy rocky coasts is addressed.

Trends and Variability in Temperature Sensitivity of Lilac Flowering Phenology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Huanjiong; Dai, Junhu; Rutishauser, This; Gonsamo, Alemu; Wu, Chaoyang; Ge, Quansheng

2018-03-01

The responses of plant phenology to temperature variability have many consequences for ecological processes, agriculture, forestry, and human health. Temperature sensitivity (ST) of phenology could measure how and to what degree plant could phenologically track climate change. The long-term trends and spatial patterns in ST have been well studied for vegetative phenology such as leaf unfolding, but trends to be expected for reproductive phenology in the future remain unknown. Here we investigate trends and factors driving the temporal variation of ST of first bloom date (FBD). Using the long-term FBD records during 1963-2013 for common lilac (Syringa vulgaris) from 613 stations in Europe, we compared changes in ST from the beginning to the end of the study period. The Spearman partial correlations were used to assess the importance of four influencing factors. The results showed that the temporal changes in ST of FBD varied considerably among time scales. Mean ST decreased significantly by 0.92 days °C-1 from 1963-1972 to 2004-2013 (P < 0.01), but remained stable from 1963-1987 to 1989-2013. The strength of FBD and temperature relationship, the spring temperature variance, and winter chill all impact ST in an expected way at most stations. No consistent responses of ST on photoperiod were found. Our results imply that the trends and variability in ST of flowering phenology are driving by multiple factors and impacted by time scales. Continued efforts are still needed to further examine the flowering-temperature relationship for other plant species in other climates and environments using similar methods to our study.

NAEP 1999 Long-Term Trend Technical Analysis Report: Three Decades of Student Performance. NCES 2005-484

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Allen, Nancy L.; McClellan, Catherine A.; Stoeckel, Joan J.

2005-01-01

This report provides an update to the technical analysis procedures documenting the 1996 National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) as presented in "The NAEP 1996 Technical Report" (Allen, Carlson, and Zelenak, 1999). It describes how the 1999 long-term trend data were incorporated into the trend analyses. Since no national main…

Development of the Long-Term Agro-ecosystem Research (LTAR) Network: Current status and future trends

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Long-term research conducted at multiple scales is critical to assessing the effects of key long term drivers (e.g., global population growth; land-use change; increased competition for natural resources; climate variability and change) on our ability to sustain or enhance agricultural production to...

Difficulties in tracking the long-term global trend in tropical forest area.

PubMed

Grainger, Alan

2008-01-15

The long-term trend in tropical forest area receives less scrutiny than the tropical deforestation rate. We show that constructing a reliable trend is difficult and evidence for decline is unclear, within the limits of errors involved in making global estimates. A time series for all tropical forest area, using data from Forest Resources Assessments (FRAs) of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, is dominated by three successively corrected declining trends. Inconsistencies between these trends raise questions about their reliability, especially because differences seem to result as much from errors as from changes in statistical design and use of new data. A second time series for tropical moist forest area shows no apparent decline. The latter may be masked by the errors involved, but a "forest return" effect may also be operating, in which forest regeneration in some areas offsets deforestation (but not biodiversity loss) elsewhere. A better monitoring program is needed to give a more reliable trend. Scientists who use FRA data should check how the accuracy of their findings depends on errors in the data.

Implications of Version 8 TOMS and SBUV Data for Long-Term Trend Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frith, Stacey M.

2004-01-01

Total ozone data from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) and profile/total ozone data from the Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV; SBW/2) series of instruments have recently been reprocessed using new retrieval algorithms (referred to as Version 8 for both) and updated calibrations. In this paper, we incorporate the Version 8 data into a TOMS/SBW merged total ozone data set and an S B W merged profile ozone data set. The Total Merged Ozone Data (Total MOD) combines data from multiple TOMS and SBW instruments to form an internally consistent global data set with virtually complete time coverage from October 1978 through December 2003. Calibration differences between instruments are accounted for using external adjustments based on instrument intercomparisons during overlap periods. Previous results showed errors due to aerosol loading and sea glint are significantly reduced in the V8 TOMS retrievals. Using SBW as a transfer standard, calibration differences between V8 Nimbus 7 and Earth Probe TOMS data are approx. 1.3%, suggesting small errors in calibration remain. We will present updated total ozone long-term trends based on the Version 8 data. The Profile Merged Ozone Data (Profile MOD) data set is constructed using data from the SBUV series of instruments. In previous versions, SAGE data were used to establish the long-term external calibration of the combined data set. The SBW Version 8 we assess the V8 profile data through comparisons with SAGE and between SBW instruments in overlap periods. We then construct a consistently-calibrated long term time series. Updated zonal mean trends as a function of altitude and season from the new profile data set will be shown, and uncertainties in determining the best long-term calibration will be discussed.

Long-Term Trends in Hematological and Nutritional Status After Gastrectomy for Gastric Cancer.

PubMed

Kim, Ji-Hyun; Bae, You-Jin; Jun, Kyong-Hwa; Chin, Hyung-Min

2017-08-01

This study investigated long-term trends in hematological and nutritional parameters after gastrectomy for gastric cancer and evaluated the influence of the reconstruction type on these trends. The medical records of 558 patients who underwent curative gastrectomy with standard lymph node dissection for stage I gastric cancer between January 2006 and December 2013 were reviewed. The hematological and nutritional parameters evaluated included hemoglobin, ferritin, vitamin B 12 , total protein, albumin, total cholesterol, triglyceride, and calcium. The patients were followed up for 6 months postoperatively and then annually until death, cancer recurrence, or follow-up loss. In the long term, ferritin and triglyceride gradually decreased after gastrectomy, while the other parameters decreased slightly or were stable. In the comparisons according to reconstruction type, the Roux-en-Y group had the lowest levels of hemoglobin, ferritin, vitamin B12, total protein, albumin, and total cholesterol beginning 6 months postoperatively compared with the Billroth I and II groups. However, only ferritin and vitamin B 12 had significant differences in the 5-year cumulative incidences of deficiency/reduction according to the reconstruction type, whereas albumin, triglyceride, total cholesterol, and calcium did not. Although malabsorption and malnutrition are common in patients after a gastrectomy, most nutritional parameters were stable or decreased slightly in the long-term and were not markedly influenced by the reconstruction type or extent of gastrectomy. Therefore, for more accurate nutritional assessment after gastrectomy, multidirectional monitoring should be considered rather than simply measuring biochemical parameters.

Long-Term Variability in o Ceti and Other Mira Variables: Signs of Supergranular Convection?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Templeton, Matthew R.; Karovska, Margarita

2009-09-01

We describe our study of long-term variability of o Ceti (Mira A), the prototype of the Mira-type pulsating stars. Our study was originally undertaken to search for coherent long-period variability, but the results of our analysis didn't uncover this. However, we detected a low-frequency ``red noise'' in the Fourier spectrum of the o Ceti century-long light curve. We have since found similar behavior in other Miras and pulsating giant stars and have begun a study of a large sample of Mira variables. Similar red noise has been previously detected in red supergiants and attributed to supergranular convection. Its presence in Miras suggests the phenomenon may be ubiquitous in cool giant pulsators. These results support high-angular resolution observations of Miras and supergiants showing asymmetries in their surface brightness distributions, which may be due to large supergranular convection cells. Theoretical modeling, and numerical simulations of pulsation processes in late-type giants and supergiants should therefore take into account the effects of deep convection and large supergranular structures, which in turn may provide important insights into the behavior of Miras and other giant and supergiant pulsators. In this work, we summarize our results for o Ceti, present preliminary results of our broader study of Mira variables, and discuss how the results of this study may be used by future studies of AGB variables.

River-discharge variability and trends in southeastern Central Andes since 1940

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castino, Fabiana; Bookhagen, Bodo; Strecker, Manfred R.

2017-04-01

The southern Central Andes in NW Argentina comprise small to medium drainage basins (102-104 km2) particularly sensitive to climate variability. In this area and in contrast to larger drainage basins such as the Amazon or La Plata rivers, floodplains or groundwater reservoirs either do not exist or are small. This reduces their dampening effect on discharge variability. Previous studies highlighted a rapid discharge increase up to 40% in seven years in the southern Central Andes during the 1970s, inferred to have been associated with the global 1976-77 climate shift. To better understand the processes that drive variations in river discharge in this region, we analyze discharge variability on different timescales, relying on four time series of monthly discharge between 1940 and 2015. Since river discharge in this complex mountain environment results in a pronounced non-stationary and non-linear character, we apply the Hilbert-Huang Transform (HHT) to evaluate non-stationary oscillatory modes of variability and trends. An Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) analysis revealed that discharge variability in this region can be decomposed in four quasi-periodic, statistically significant oscillatory modes, associated with timescales varying from 1 to ˜20y. In addition, statistically significant long-term trends show increasing discharge during the period between 1940 and 2015, documenting an intensification of the hydrological cycle during this period. Furthermore, time-dependent intrinsic correlation (TDIC) analysis shows that discharge variability is most likely linked to the phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) at multi-decadal timescales (˜20y) and, to a lesser degree, to the Tropical South Atlantic SST anomaly (TSA) variability at shorter timescales (˜2-5y). Finally, our results suggest that the rapid discharge increased occurred during the 1970s coincides with the periodic enhancement of discharge mainly linked to the rise of the PDO

Emerging trends in the finance and delivery of long-term care: public and private opportunities and challenges.

PubMed

Cohen, M A

1998-02-01

A number of key trends are emerging in long-term care related to financing, new models of service delivery, and shifts in consumer expectations and preferences. Taken together, changes occurring in these areas point to a rapidly transforming long-term care landscape. Financing responsibility is shifting away from the federal government to states, individuals, and their families; providers are integrating and managing acute and long-term care services and adding new services to the continuum of care; and consumers are thinking more seriously about how to plan and pay for their future care needs, as well as how to independently navigate the long-term care system.

Long-term Accretion Variations of the Magnetic Cataclysmic Variable Star QQ Vulpecula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cooper Rose, Sanaea; Kafka, Stella; Jorgenson, Regina; Carr, Derrick; Childs, Francesca; Christenson, Holly; Karim, Md. Tanveer; Konchady, Tarini; Walker, Gary E.; Honeycutt, R. K.

2017-01-01

Magnetic cataclysmic variable stars have brightness variations that repeat with each revolution of the two stars about the center of mass of the system. However, in the case of QQ Vulpecula (QQ Vul), this brightness variation pattern changes in the long term. This study makes use of two decades worth of data from the Roboscope Telescope as well as data from the American Association of Variable Star Observers (AAVSO) database to examine the long-term evolution of QQ Vul’s phase curves. Nightly observations using the Maria Mitchell Association's Vestal and Loines Observatories supplemented this analysis by clarifying short-term brightness variation. The long-term data was divided into four commonly observed behavioral types ranging from a double peaked curve of ~15.5 magnitude to a ~15.0 magnitude curve that had a primary minimum and a slow, linear rise in brightness in place of the secondary minimum. The nightly data kept within the confines of these categories, though the secondary minimum in the nightly data never vanished. No periodicity was found in the long-term variations. The model often invoked to explain the double peaked curve consists of single pole accretion in which a partial self-eclipse causes the secondary minimum and cyclotron beaming causes the primary minimum. However, the long-term variation may indicate a changing accretion rate, which may manifest itself in changes to the shape, size, or location of the accretion spot on the white dwarf such that it lessens or removes the secondary minimum. This project was supported by the NSF REU grant AST-1358980, the Massachusetts Space Grant, and the Nantucket Maria Mitchell Association.

Relation between annual trends in food pantry use and long-term unemployment in New York State, 2002-2012.

PubMed

Shackman, Gene; Yu, Chengxuan; Edmunds, Lynn S; Clarke, Lewis; Sekhobo, Jackson P

2015-03-01

We examined the correlation between trends in meals provided through food pantries and long-term unemployment from 2002 through 2012. The New York State Hunger Prevention and Nutrition Assistance Program provided about 192 million meals through food pantries in 2012-double the number before the Great Recession. Annual food pantry use was strongly correlated with long-term unemployment and remained on an upward trend from 2006 through 2012, even after the Great Recession had ended. These findings suggest that efforts to reduce hunger and food insecurity should continue to be priorities.

Detection of carbon monoxide trends in the presence of interannual variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strode, Sarah A.; Pawson, Steven

2013-11-01

in fossil fuel emissions are a major driver of changes in atmospheric CO, but detection of trends in CO from anthropogenic sources is complicated by the presence of large interannual variability (IAV) in biomass burning. We use a multiyear model simulation of CO with year-specific biomass burning to predict the number of years needed to detect the impact of changes in Asian anthropogenic emissions on downwind regions. Our study includes two cases for changing anthropogenic emissions: a stepwise change of 15% and a linear trend of 3% yr-1. We first examine how well the model reproduces the observed IAV of CO over the North Pacific, since this variability impacts the time needed to detect significant anthropogenic trends. The modeled IAV over the North Pacific correlates well with that seen from the Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) instrument but underestimates the magnitude of the variability. The model predicts that a 3% yr-1 trend in Asian anthropogenic emissions would lead to a statistically significant trend in CO surface concentration in the western United States within 12 years, and accounting for Siberian boreal biomass-burning emissions greatly reduces the number of years needed for trend detection. Combining the modeled trend with the observed MOPITT variability at 500 hPa, we estimate that the 3% yr-1 trend could be detectable in satellite observations over Asia in approximately a decade. Our predicted timescales for trend detection highlight the importance of long-term measurements of CO from satellites.

Changes in heart rate variability are associated with expression of short-term and long-term contextual and cued fear memories.

PubMed

Liu, Jun; Wei, Wei; Kuang, Hui; Zhao, Fang; Tsien, Joe Z

2013-01-01

Heart physiology is a highly useful indicator for measuring not only physical states, but also emotional changes in animals. Yet changes of heart rate variability during fear conditioning have not been systematically studied in mice. Here, we investigated changes in heart rate and heart rate variability in both short-term and long-term contextual and cued fear conditioning. We found that while fear conditioning could increase heart rate, the most significant change was the reduction in heart rate variability which could be further divided into two distinct stages: a highly rhythmic phase (stage-I) and a more variable phase (stage-II). We showed that the time duration of the stage-I rhythmic phase were sensitive enough to reflect the transition from short-term to long-term fear memories. Moreover, it could also detect fear extinction effect during the repeated tone recall. These results suggest that heart rate variability is a valuable physiological indicator for sensitively measuring the consolidation and expression of fear memories in mice.

Long-term trends of surface ozone and its influencing factors at the Mt Waliguan GAW station, China - Part 1: Overall trends and characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Wanyun; Lin, Weili; Xu, Xiaobin; Tang, Jie; Huang, Jianqing; Wu, Hao; Zhang, Xiaochun

2016-05-01

Tropospheric ozone is an important atmospheric oxidant, greenhouse gas and atmospheric pollutant at the same time. The oxidation capacity of the atmosphere, climate, human and vegetation health can be impacted by the increase of the ozone level. Therefore, long-term determination of trends of baseline ozone is highly needed information for environmental and climate change assessment. So far, studies on the long-term trends of ozone at representative sites are mainly available for European and North American sites. Similar studies are lacking for China and many other developing countries. Measurements of surface ozone were carried out at a baseline Global Atmospheric Watch (GAW) station in the north-eastern Tibetan Plateau region (Mt Waliguan, 36°17' N, 100°54' E, 3816 m a.s.l.) for the period of 1994 to 2013. To uncover the variation characteristics, long-term trends and influencing factors of surface ozone at this remote site in western China, a two-part study has been carried out, with this part focusing on the overall characteristics of diurnal, seasonal and long-term variations and the trends of surface ozone. To obtain reliable ozone trends, we performed the Mann-Kendall trend test and the Hilbert-Huang transform (HHT) analysis on the ozone data. Our results confirm that the mountain-valley breeze plays an important role in the diurnal cycle of surface ozone at Waliguan, resulting in higher ozone values during the night and lower ones during the day, as was previously reported. Systematic diurnal and seasonal variations were found in mountain-valley breezes at the site, which were used in defining season-dependent daytime and nighttime periods for trend calculations. Significant positive trends in surface ozone were detected for both daytime (0.24 ± 0.16 ppbv year-1) and nighttime (0.28 ± 0.17 ppbv year-1). The largest nighttime increasing rate occurred in autumn (0.29 ± 0.11 ppbv year-1), followed by spring (0.24 ± 0.12 ppbv year-1), summer (0.22 ± 0

Factors affecting long-term trends in surface-water quality in the Gwynns Falls watershed, Baltimore City and County, Maryland, 1998–2016

USGS Publications Warehouse

Majcher, Emily H.; Woytowitz, Ellen L.; Reisinger, Alexander J.; Groffman, Peter M.

2018-03-30

Factors affecting water-quality trends in urban streams are not well understood, despite current regulatory requirements and considerable ongoing investments in gray and green infrastructure. To address this gap, long-term water-quality trends and factors affecting these trends were examined in the Gwynns Falls, Maryland, watershed during 1998–2016 in cooperation with Blue Water Baltimore. Data on water-quality constituents and potential factors of influence were obtained from multiple sources and compiled for analysis, with a focus on data collected as part of the National Science Foundation funded Long-Term Ecological Research project, the Baltimore Ecosystem Study.Variability in climate (specifically, precipitation) and land cover can overwhelm actions taken to improve water quality and can present challenges for meeting regulatory goals. Analysis of land cover during 2001–11 in the Gwynns Falls watershed indicated minimal change during the study time frame; therefore, land-cover change is likely not a factor affecting trends in water quality. However, a modest increase in annual precipitation and a significant increase in winter precipitation were apparent in the region. A higher proportion of runoff producing storms was observed in the winter and a lower proportion in the summer, indicating that climate change may affect water quality in the watershed. The increase in precipitation was not reflected in annual or seasonal trends of streamflow in the watershed. Nonetheless, these precipitation changes may exacerbate the inflow and infiltration of water to gray infrastructure and reduce the effectiveness of green infrastructure. For streamflow and most water-quality constituents examined, no discernable trends were noted over the timeframe examined. Despite the increases in precipitation, no trends were observed for annual or seasonal discharge at the various sites within the study area. In some locations, nitrate, phosphate, and total nitrogen show downward

Seasonal, Spatial, and Long-term Variability of Fine Mineral Dust in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hand, J. L.; White, W. H.; Gebhart, K. A.; Hyslop, N. P.; Gill, T. E.; Schichtel, B. A.

2017-12-01

Characterizing the seasonal, spatial, and long-term variability of fine mineral dust (FD) is important to assess its environmental and climate impacts. FD concentrations (mineral particles with aerodynamic diameters less than 2.5 µm) were estimated using ambient, ground-based PM2.5 elemental chemistry data from over 160 remote and rural Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) sites from 2011 through 2015. FD concentrations were highest and contributed over 50% of PM2.5 mass at southwestern sites in spring and across the central and southeastern United States in summer (20-30% of PM2.5). The highest seasonal variability in FD occurred at sites in the Southeast during summer, likely associated with impacts from North African transport, which was also evidenced in the elemental ratios of calcium, iron, and aluminum. Long-term trend analyses (2000-2015) indicated widespread, regional increases in FD concentrations during spring in the West, especially in March in the Southwest. This increase was associated with an early onset of the spring dust season and correlated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the El Niño Southern Oscillation. The Southeast and central United States also experienced increased FD concentrations during summer and fall, respectively. Contributions of FD to PM2.5 mass have increased in regions across the United States during all seasons, in part due to increased FD concentrations but also as a result of reductions in secondary aerosols (e.g., sulfates, nitrates, and organic carbon). Increased levels of FD have important implications for its environmental and climate impacts; mitigating these impacts will require identifying and characterizing source regions and underlying mechanisms for dust episodes.

Effect of climatic variability on malaria trends in Baringo County, Kenya.

PubMed

Kipruto, Edwin K; Ochieng, Alfred O; Anyona, Douglas N; Mbalanya, Macrae; Mutua, Edna N; Onguru, Daniel; Nyamongo, Isaac K; Estambale, Benson B A

2017-05-25

Malaria transmission in arid and semi-arid regions of Kenya such as Baringo County, is seasonal and often influenced by climatic factors. Unravelling the relationship between climate variables and malaria transmission dynamics is therefore instrumental in developing effective malaria control strategies. The main aim of this study was to describe the effects of variability of rainfall, maximum temperature and vegetation indices on seasonal trends of malaria in selected health facilities within Baringo County, Kenya. Climate variables sourced from the International Research Institute (IRI)/Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (LDEO) climate database and malaria cases reported in 10 health facilities spread across four ecological zones (riverine, lowland, mid-altitude and highland) between 2004 and 2014 were subjected to a time series analysis. A negative binomial regression model with lagged climate variables was used to model long-term monthly malaria cases. The seasonal Mann-Kendall trend test was then used to detect overall monotonic trends in malaria cases. Malaria cases increased significantly in the highland and midland zones over the study period. Changes in malaria prevalence corresponded to variations in rainfall and maximum temperature. Rainfall at a time lag of 2 months resulted in an increase in malaria transmission across the four zones while an increase in temperature at time lags of 0 and 1 month resulted in an increase in malaria cases in the riverine and highland zones, respectively. Given the existence of a time lag between climatic variables more so rainfall and peak malaria transmission, appropriate control measures can be initiated at the onset of short and after long rains seasons.

Trends and Controls of inter-annual Variability in the Carbon Budget of Terrestrial Ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cescatti, A.; Marcolla, B.

2014-12-01

The climate sensitivity of the terrestrial carbon budget will substantially affect the sign and strength of the land-climate feedbacks and the future climate trajectories. Current trends in the inter-annual variability of terrestrial carbon fluxes (IAV) may contribute to clarify the relative role of physical and biological controls of ecosystem responses to climate change. For this purpose we investigated how recent climate variability has impacted the carbon fluxes at long-term FLUXNET sites. Using a novel method, the IAV has been factored out in climate induced variability (physical control), variability due to changes in ecosystem functioning (biological control) and the interaction of the two terms. The relative control of the main climatic drivers (temperature, water availability) on the physical and biological sources of IAV has been investigated using both site level fluxes and global gridded products generated from the up-scaling of flux data. Results of this analysis highlight the fundamental role of precipitation trends on the pattern of IAV in the last 30 years. Our findings on the spatial/temporal trends of IAV have been finally confirmed using the signal derived from the global network of atmospheric CO2 concentrations measurements.

Long-term trends in sunshine duration and its association with schizophrenia birth rates and age at first registration--data from Australia and the Netherlands.

PubMed

McGrath, John; Selten, Jean-Paul; Chant, David

2002-04-01

Based on the well-described excess of schizophrenia births in winter and spring, we hypothesised that individuals with schizophrenia (a) would be more likely to be born during periods of decreased perinatal sunshine, and (b) those born during periods of less sunshine would have an earlier age of first registration. We undertook an ecological analysis of long-term trends in perinatal sunshine duration and schizophrenia birth rates based on two mental health registers (Queensland, Australia n=6630; The Netherlands n=24,474). For each of the 480 months between 1931 and 1970, the agreement between slopes of the trends in psychosis and long-term sunshine duration series were assessed. Age at first registration was assessed by quartiles of long-term trends in perinatal sunshine duration. Males and females were assessed separately. Both the Dutch and Australian data showed a statistically significant association between falling long-term trends in sunshine duration around the time of birth and rising schizophrenia birth rates for males only. In both the Dutch and Australian data there were significant associations between earlier age of first registration and reduced long-term trends in sunshine duration around the time of birth for both males and females. A measure of long-term trends in perinatal sunshine duration was associated with two epidemiological features of schizophrenia in two separate data sets. Exposures related to sunshine duration warrant further consideration in schizophrenia research.

Human Land-Use Practices Lead to Global Long-Term Increases in Photosynthetic Capacity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mueller, Thomas; Tucker, Compton J.; Dressler, Gunnar; Pinzon, Jorge E.; Leimgruber, Peter; Dubayah, Ralph O.; Hurtt, George C.; Boehning-Gaese, Katrin; Fagan, William F.

2014-01-01

Long-term trends in photosynthetic capacity measured with the satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) are usually associated with climate change. Human impacts on the global land surface are typically not accounted for. Here, we provide the first global analysis quantifying the effect of the earth's human footprint on NDVI trends. Globally, more than 20% of the variability in NDVI trends was explained by anthropogenic factors such as land use, nitrogen fertilization, and irrigation. Intensely used land classes, such as villages, showed the greatest rates of increase in NDVI, more than twice than those of forests. These findings reveal that factors beyond climate influence global long-term trends in NDVI and suggest that global climate change models and analyses of primary productivity should incorporate land use effects.

Extreme events, trends, and variability in Northern Hemisphere lake-ice phenology (1855-2005)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Benson, Barbara J.; Magnuson, John J.; Jensen, Olaf P.; Card, Virginia M.; Hodgkins, Glenn; Korhonen, Johanna; Livingstone, David M.; Stewart, Kenton M.; Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A.; Granin, Nick G.

2012-01-01

Often extreme events, more than changes in mean conditions, have the greatest impact on the environment and human well-being. Here we examine changes in the occurrence of extremes in the timing of the annual formation and disappearance of lake ice in the Northern Hemisphere. Both changes in the mean condition and in variability around the mean condition can alter the probability of extreme events. Using long-term ice phenology data covering two periods 1855–6 to 2004–5 and 1905–6 to 2004–5 for a total of 75 lakes, we examined patterns in long-term trends and variability in the context of understanding the occurrence of extreme events. We also examined patterns in trends for a 30-year subset (1975–6 to 2004–5) of the 100-year data set. Trends for ice variables in the recent 30-year period were steeper than those in the 100- and 150-year periods, and trends in the 150-year period were steeper than in the 100-year period. Ranges of rates of change (days per decade) among time periods based on linear regression were 0.3−1.6 later for freeze, 0.5−1.9 earlier for breakup, and 0.7−4.3 shorter for duration. Mostly, standard deviation did not change, or it decreased in the 150-year and 100-year periods. During the recent 50-year period, standard deviation calculated in 10-year windows increased for all ice measures. For the 150-year and 100-year periods changes in the mean ice dates rather than changes in variability most strongly influenced the significant increases in the frequency of extreme lake ice events associated with warmer conditions and decreases in the frequency of extreme events associated with cooler conditions.

Long-term trends in climate and hydrology in an agricultural, headwater watershed of central Pennsylvania, USA

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Strategies to mitigate agricultural runoff must consider long-term changes in climate. We investigated temperature, precipitation and runoff trends over roughly four decades of monitoring an agricultural watershed in east central Pennsylvania (1968-2012). Temperature data confirmed significant expan...

Long-Term Trends Worldwide in Ambient NO2 Concentrations Inferred from Satellite Observations.

PubMed

Geddes, Jeffrey A; Martin, Randall V; Boys, Brian L; van Donkelaar, Aaron

2016-03-01

Air pollution is associated with morbidity and premature mortality. Satellite remote sensing provides globally consistent decadal-scale observations of ambient nitrogen dioxide (NO2) pollution. We determined global population-weighted annual mean NO2 concentrations from 1996 through 2012. We used observations of NO2 tropospheric column densities from three satellite instruments in combination with chemical transport modeling to produce a global 17-year record of ground-level NO2 at 0.1° × 0.1° resolution. We calculated linear trends in population-weighted annual mean NO2 (PWMNO2) concentrations in different regions around the world. We found that PWMNO2 in high-income North America (Canada and the United States) decreased more steeply than in any other region, having declined at a rate of -4.7%/year [95% confidence interval (CI): -5.3, -4.1]. PWMNO2 decreased in western Europe at a rate of -2.5%/year (95% CI: -3.0, -2.1). The highest PWMNO2 occurred in high-income Asia Pacific (predominantly Japan and South Korea) in 1996, with a subsequent decrease of -2.1%/year (95% CI: -2.7, -1.5). In contrast, PWMNO2 almost tripled in East Asia (China, North Korea, and Taiwan) at a rate of 6.7%/year (95% CI: 6.0, 7.3). The satellite-derived estimates of trends in ground-level NO2 were consistent with regional trends inferred from data obtained from ground-station monitoring networks in North America (within 0.7%/year) and Europe (within 0.3%/year). Our rankings of regional average NO2 and long-term trends differed from the satellite-derived estimates of fine particulate matter reported elsewhere, demonstrating the utility of both indicators to describe changing pollutant mixtures. Long-term trends in satellite-derived ambient NO2 provide new information about changing global exposure to ambient air pollution. Our estimates are publicly available at http://fizz.phys.dal.ca/~atmos/martin/?page_id=232.

Drivers for spatial, temporal and long-term trends in atmospheric ammonia and ammonium in the UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Yuk S.; Braban, Christine F.; Dragosits, Ulrike; Dore, Anthony J.; Simmons, Ivan; van Dijk, Netty; Poskitt, Janet; Dos Santos Pereira, Gloria; Keenan, Patrick O.; Conolly, Christopher; Vincent, Keith; Smith, Rognvald I.; Heal, Mathew R.; Sutton, Mark A.

2018-01-01

A unique long-term dataset from the UK National Ammonia Monitoring Network (NAMN) is used here to assess spatial, seasonal and long-term variability in atmospheric ammonia (NH3: 1998-2014) and particulate ammonium (NH4+: 1999-2014) across the UK. Extensive spatial heterogeneity in NH3 concentrations is observed, with lowest annual mean concentrations at remote sites (< 0.2 µg m-3) and highest in the areas with intensive agriculture (up to 22 µg m-3), while NH4+ concentrations show less spatial variability (e.g. range of 0.14 to 1.8 µg m-3 annual mean in 2005). Temporally, NH3 concentrations are influenced by environmental conditions and local emission sources. In particular, peak NH3 concentrations are observed in summer at background sites (defined by 5 km grid average NH3 emissions < 1 kg N ha-1 yr-1) and in areas dominated by sheep farming, driven by increased volatilization of NH3 in warmer summer temperatures. In areas where cattle, pig and poultry farming is dominant, the largest NH3 concentrations are in spring and autumn, matching periods of manure application to fields. By contrast, peak concentrations of NH4+ aerosol occur in spring, associated with long-range transboundary sources. An estimated decrease in NH3 emissions by 16 % between 1998 and 2014 was reported by the UK National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory. Annually averaged NH3 data from NAMN sites operational over the same period (n = 59) show an indicative downward trend, although the reduction in NH3 concentrations is smaller and non-significant: Mann-Kendall (MK), -6.3 %; linear regression (LR), -3.1 %. In areas dominated by pig and poultry farming, a significant reduction in NH3 concentrations between 1998 and 2014 (MK: -22 %; LR: -21 %, annually averaged NH3) is consistent with, but not as large as the decrease in estimated NH3 emissions from this sector over the same period (-39 %). By contrast, in cattle-dominated areas there is a slight upward trend (non-significant) in NH3

Trend analysis of the long-term Swiss ozone measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Staehelin, Johannes; Bader, Juerg; Gelpke, Verena

1994-01-01

Trend analyses, assuming a linear trend which started at 1970, were performed from total ozone measurements from Arosa (Switzerland, 1926-1991). Decreases in monthly mean values were statistically significant for October through April showing decreases of about 2.0-4 percent per decade. For the period 1947-91, total ozone trends were further investigated using a multiple regression model. Temperature of a mountain peak in Switzerland (Mt. Santis), the F10.7 solar flux series, the QBO series (quasi biennial oscillation), and the southern oscillation index (SOI) were included as explanatory variables. Trends in the monthly mean values were statistically significant for December through April. The same multiple regression model was applied to investigate the ozone trends at various altitudes using the ozone balloon soundings from Payerne (1967-1989) and the Umkehr measurements from Arosa (1947-1989). The results show four different vertical trend regimes: On a relative scale changes were largest in the troposphere (increase of about 10 percent per decade). On an absolute scale the largest trends were obtained in the lower stratosphere (decrease of approximately 6 per decade at an altitude of about 18 to 22 km). No significant trends were observed at approximately 30 km, whereas stratospheric ozone decreased in the upper stratosphere.

[Short-term and long-term fetal heart rate variability after amnioinfusion treatment of oligohydramnios complicated pregnancy].

PubMed

Machalski, T; Sikora, J; Bakon, I; Magnucki, J; Grzesiak-Kubica, E; Szkodny, E

2001-12-01

Results of computerised analysis of cardiotocograms obtained in the group of 21 pregnancies complicated by idiopathic oligohydramnios are presented in the study. Amnioinfusion procedures were administered serially in local anesthesia with ultrasound and colour Doppler control on the base of oligohydramnios criteria by Phelan. The analysis was based on KOMPOR software created by ITAM Zabrze based on PC computer connected to Hewlett-Packard Series 50A cardiotocograph. Significant short-term variability increase just after amnioinfusion procedure from 5.55 ms to 8.24 ms and after 24 hours up to 7.25 ms was found, while significant long-term variability values changes were not observed.

Tree demography dominates long-term growth trends inferred from tree rings.

PubMed

Brienen, Roel J W; Gloor, Manuel; Ziv, Guy

2017-02-01

Understanding responses of forests to increasing CO 2 and temperature is an important challenge, but no easy task. Tree rings are increasingly used to study such responses. In a recent study, van der Sleen et al. (2014) Nature Geoscience, 8, 4 used tree rings from 12 tropical tree species and find that despite increases in intrinsic water use efficiency, no growth stimulation is observed. This challenges the idea that increasing CO 2 would stimulate growth. Unfortunately, tree ring analysis can be plagued by biases, resulting in spurious growth trends. While their study evaluated several biases, it does not account for all. In particular, one bias may have seriously affected their results. Several of the species have recruitment patterns, which are not uniform, but clustered around one specific year. This results in spurious negative growth trends if growth rates are calculated in fixed size classes, as 'fast-growing' trees reach the sampling diameter earlier compared to slow growers and thus fast growth rates tend to have earlier calendar dates. We assessed the effect of this 'nonuniform age bias' on observed growth trends and find that van der Sleen's conclusions of a lack of growth stimulation do not hold. Growth trends are - at least partially - driven by underlying recruitment or age distributions. Species with more clustered age distributions show more negative growth trends, and simulations to estimate the effect of species' age distributions show growth trends close to those observed. Re-evaluation of the growth data and correction for the bias result in significant positive growth trends of 1-2% per decade for the full period, and 3-7% since 1950. These observations, however, should be taken cautiously as multiple biases affect these trend estimates. In all, our results highlight that tree ring studies of long-term growth trends can be strongly influenced by biases if demographic processes are not carefully accounted for. © 2016 The Authors. Global

Temporal trends in long-term survival and cure rates in esophageal cancer: a SEER database analysis.

PubMed

Dubecz, Attila; Gall, Isabell; Solymosi, Norbert; Schweigert, Michael; Peters, Jeffrey H; Feith, Marcus; Stein, Hubert J

2012-02-01

To assess long-term temporal trends in population-based survival and cure rates in patients with esophageal cancer and compare them over the last 3 decades in the United States. We identified 62,523 patients with cancer of the esophagus and the gastric cardia diagnosed between 1973 and 2007 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. Long-term cancer-related survival and cure rates were calculated. Stage-by-stage disease-related survival curves of patients diagnosed in different decades were compared. Influence of available variables on survival and cure was analyzed with logistic regression. Ten-year survival was 14% in all patients. Disease-related survival of esophageal cancer improved significantly since 1973. Median survival in Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results stages in local, regional, and metastatic cancers improved from 11, 10, and 4 months in the 1970s to 35, 15, and 6 months after 2000. Early stage, age 45 to 65 years at diagnosis and undergoing surgical therapy were independent predictors of 10-year survival. Cure rate improved in all stages during the study period and were 73%, 37%, 12%, and 2% in stages 0, 1, 2, and 4, respectively, after the year 2000. Percentage of patients undergoing surgery improved from 55% in the 1970s to 64% between 2000 and 2007. Proportion of patients diagnosed with in situ and local cancer remains below 30%. Long-term survival with esophageal cancer is poor but survival of local esophageal cancer improved dramatically over the decades. Complete cure of nonmetastatic esophageal cancer seems possible in a growing number of patients. Early diagnosis and treatment are crucial.

Long-term rise of the Water Table in the Northeast US: Climate Variability, Land-Use Change, or Angry Beavers?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boutt, D. F.

2011-12-01

The scientific evidence that humans are directly influencing the Earth's natural climate is increasingly compelling. Numerous studies suggest that climate change will lead to changes in the seasonality of surface water availability thereby increasing the need for groundwater development to offset those shortages. Research suggests that the Northeast region of the U.S. is experiencing significant changes to its' natural climate and hydrologic systems. Previous analysis of a long-term regional compilation of the water table response to the last 60 years of climate variability in New England documented a wide range of variability. The investigation evaluated the physical mechanisms, natural variability and response of aquifers in New England using 100 long term groundwater monitoring stations with 20 or more years of data coupled with 67 stream gages, 75 precipitation stations, and 43 temperature stations. Groundwater trends were calculated as normalized anomalies and analyzed with respect to regional compiled precipitation, temperature, and streamflow anomalies to understand the sensitivity of the aquifer systems to change. Interestingly, a trend and regression analysis demonstrate that water level fluctuations are producing statistically significant results with increasing water levels over at least the past thirty years at most (80 out of 100) well sites. In this contribution we investigate the causal mechanisms behind the observed ground water level trends using site-by-site land-use change assessments, cluster analysis, and spatial analysis of beaver populations (a possible proxy for beaver activity). Regionally, average annual precipitation has been slightly increasing since 1900, with 95% of the stations having statistically significant positive trends. Despite this, no correlation is observed between the magnitude of the annual precipitation trends and the magnitude of the groundwater level changes. Land-use change throughout the region has primarily taken

Modeling the long-term deposition trends in US over 1990 ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Reactive nitrogen (Nr) is very important pollutant which at the same time plays a very important role on air and water quality, human health and biological diversity. The atmospheric nitrogen deposition can cause acidification and excess eutrophication, which brings damages to the ecosystems. Quantifying the total deposition is US is still a challenge due to the lack of the long-term observation data for the dry deposition. For this study, we use a comprehensive coupled meteorology-air quality model (WRF-CMAQ) to simulate deposition changes in US over 1990—2010. The WRF-CMAQ model was run for the continental US using a 36km by 36km horizontal grid spacing, by using a consistent emission inventory recently developed by Jia et al., (2013). We found significant decreasing trend for the total inorganic nitrogen over the East and West coast of California, and increasing trend in the East North Central. The decreased total deposition was controlled by the oxidized nitrogen, as a result of the recent consistent NOx emission reductions due to air regulations such as the Clean Air Act and the NOx State Implementation Plan, consistent with other studies (Li et al., 2016; Schwede and Lear, 2014). The increased inorganic nitrogen deposition was dominated by the reduced nitrogen, which was attributed to the unregulated increasing ammonia (NH3) emissions. The dry and wet inorganic nitrogen deposition trends also have a different spatial patterns: wet deposition was decreasi

Long-term trends in the structure of eastern Adriatic littoral fish assemblages: Consequences for fisheries management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stagličić, N.; Matić-Skoko, S.; Pallaoro, A.; Grgičević, R.; Kraljević, M.; Tutman, P.; Dragičević, B.; Dulčić, J.

2011-09-01

Long-term interannual changes in abundance, biomass, diversity and structure of littoral fish assemblages were examined between 1993 and 2009 by experimental trammel net fishing up to six times per year, within the warm period - May to September, at multiple areas along the eastern Adriatic coast with the aim of testing for the consistency of patterns of change across a large spatial scale (˜600 km). The results revealed spatially consistent increasing trends of total fish abundance and biomass growing at an average rate of 15 and 14% per year, respectively. Of the diversity indices analysed, the same pattern of variability was observed for Shannon diversity, while Pielou evenness and average taxonomic distinctness measures Δ ∗ and Δ + showed spatial variability with no obvious temporal trends. Multivariate fish assemblage structure underwent a directional change displaying a similar pattern through time for all the areas. The structural change in fish assemblages generally involved most of the species present in trammel net catches. A large pool of fish species responsible for producing the temporal pattern of assemblage change was relatively different in each of the areas reflecting a large geographic range covered by the study. An analysis of 4 fish species ( Symphodus tinca, Pagellus erythrinus, Mullus surmuletus, Scorpaena porcus) common to each of the study areas as the ones driving the temporal change indicated that there were clear increasing trends of their mean catches across the years at all the study areas. A common pattern among time trajectories across the spatial scale studied implies that the factor affecting the littoral fish assemblages is not localised but regional in nature. As an underlying factor having the potential to induce such widespread and consistent improvements in littoral fish assemblages, a more restrictive artisanal fishery management that has progressively been put in place during the study period, is suggested and discussed.

Anomalous Low States and Long Term Variability in the Black Hole Binary LMC X-3

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smale, Alan P.; Boyd, Patricia T.

2012-01-01

Rossi X-my Timing Explorer observations of the black hole binary LMC X-3 reveal an extended very low X-ray state lasting from 2003 December 13 until 2004 March 18, unprecedented both in terms of its low luminosity (>15 times fainter than ever before seen in this source) and long duration (approx 3 times longer than a typical low/hard state excursion). During this event little to no source variability is observed on timescales of approx hours-weeks, and the X-ray spectrum implies an upper limit of 1.2 x 10(exp 35) erg/s, Five years later another extended low state occurs, lasting from 2008 December 11 until 2009 June 17. This event lasts nearly twice as long as the first, and while significant variability is observed, the source remains reliably in the low/hard spectral state for the approx 188 day duration. These episodes share some characteristics with the "anomalous low states" in the neutron star binary Her X-I. The average period and amplitude of the Variability of LMC X-3 have different values between these episodes. We characterize the long-term variability of LMC X-3 before and after the two events using conventional and nonlinear time series analysis methods, and show that, as is the case in Her X-I, the characteristic amplitude of the variability is related to its characteristic timescale. Furthermore, the relation is in the same direction in both systems. This suggests that a similar mechanism gives rise to the long-term variability, which in the case of Her X-I is reliably modeled with a tilted, warped precessing accretion disk.

Long-term trends in California mobile source emissions and ambient concentrations of black carbon and organic aerosol.

PubMed

McDonald, Brian C; Goldstein, Allen H; Harley, Robert A

2015-04-21

A fuel-based approach is used to assess long-term trends (1970-2010) in mobile source emissions of black carbon (BC) and organic aerosol (OA, including both primary emissions and secondary formation). The main focus of this analysis is the Los Angeles Basin, where a long record of measurements is available to infer trends in ambient concentrations of BC and organic carbon (OC), with OC used here as a proxy for OA. Mobile source emissions and ambient concentrations have decreased similarly, reflecting the importance of on- and off-road engines as sources of BC and OA in urban areas. In 1970, the on-road sector accounted for ∼90% of total mobile source emissions of BC and OA (primary + secondary). Over time, as on-road engine emissions have been controlled, the relative importance of off-road sources has grown. By 2010, off-road engines were estimated to account for 37 ± 20% and 45 ± 16% of total mobile source contributions to BC and OA, respectively, in the Los Angeles area. This study highlights both the success of efforts to control on-road emission sources, and the importance of considering off-road engine and other VOC source contributions when assessing long-term emission and ambient air quality trends.

Long-term trend of Pacific South Equatorial Current bifurcation over 1950-2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhai, Fangguo; Hu, Dunxin; Wang, Qingye; Wang, Fujun

2014-05-01

This study investigates the long-term change of the Pacific South Equatorial Current (SEC) bifurcation latitude (SBL) over 1950-2010 with Simple Ocean Data Assimilation version 2.2.4. Results indicate that the SBL averaged within upper 200 m has migrated southward at 0.020°S yr-1, comparable in magnitude with -0.024°N yr-1 for the North Equatorial Current bifurcation latitude (NBL). The SEC transport into the Coral Sea has increased. Due to the southward SBL migration, most of the increased SEC water was transported equatorward, contributing to the Equatorial Undercurrent intensification. Experiments with a nonlinear 1.5 layer reduced gravity model indicate that the southward migration of SBL is mainly caused by positive Ekman flux divergence trend in the eastern tropical South Pacific, while that of NBL is caused by negative Ekman flux divergence trend in the western tropical North Pacific.

The Baltic Sea natural long-term variability of salinity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schimanke, Semjon; Markus Meier, H. E.

2015-04-01

The Baltic Sea is one of the largest brackish sea areas of the world. The sensitive state of the Baltic Sea is sustained by a fresh-water surplus by river discharge and precipitation on one hand as well as inflows of highly saline and oxygen-rich water masses from the North Sea on the other. Major inflows which are crucial for the renewal of the deep water occur very intermittent with a mean frequency of approximately one per year. Stagnation periods (periods without major inflows) lead for instance to a reduction of oxygen concentration in the deep Baltic Sea spreading hypoxic conditions. Depending on the amount of salt water inflow and fresh-water supply the deep water salinity of the Baltic Sea varies between 11 to 14 PSU on the decadal scale. The goal of this study is to understand the contribution of different driving factors for the decadal to multi-decadal variability of salinity in the Baltic Sea. Continuous measurement series of salinity exist from the 1950 but are not sufficiently long for the investigation of long-term fluctuations. Therefore, a climate simulation of more than 800 years has been carried out with the Rossby Center Ocean model (RCO). RCO is a biogeochemical regional climate model which covers the entire Baltic Sea. It is driven with atmospheric data dynamical downscaled from a GCM mimicking natural climate variability. The analysis focus on the role of variations in river discharge and precipitation, changes in wind speed and direction, fluctuations in temperature and shifts in large scale pressure patterns (e.g. NAO). Hereby, the length of the simulation will allow to identify mechanisms working on decadal to multi-decadal time scales. Moreover, it will be discussed how likely long stagnation periods are under natural climate variability and if the observed exceptional long stagnation period between 1983-1993 might be related to beginning climate change.

Long-term trends in climate and hydrology in an agricultural headwater watershed of central Pennsylvania, USA

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Climate change has emerged as a key issue facing agriculture and water resources in the US. Long-term (1968-2012) temperature, precipitation and streamflow data from a small (7.3 km2) watershed in east-central Pennsylvania was used to examine climatic and hydrologic trends in the context of recent c...

Long-Term Ethylene Oxide Exposure Trends in US Hospitals: Relationship With OSHA Regulatory and Enforcement Actions

PubMed Central

LaMontagne, Anthony D.; Oakes, J. Michael; Lopez Turley, Ruth N.

2004-01-01

Objectives. We assessed long-term trends in ethylene oxide (EtO) worker exposures for the purposes of exposure surveillance and evaluation of the impacts of the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) 1984 and 1988 EtO standards. Methods. We obtained exposure data from a large commercial vendor and processor of EtO passive dosimeters. Personal samples (87 582 workshift [8-hr] and 46 097 short-term [15-min] samples) from 2265 US hospitals were analyzed for time trends from 1984 through 2001 and compared with OSHA enforcement data. Results. Exposures declined steadily for the first several years after the OSHA standards were set. Workshift exposures continued to taper off and have remained low and constant through 2001. However, since 1996, the probability of exceeding the short-term excursion limit has increased. This trend coincides with a decline in enforcement of the EtO standard. Conclusions. Results indicate the need for renewed intervention efforts to preserve gains made following the passage and implementation of the 1984 and 1988 EtO standards. PMID:15333324

Identification of long-term trends and seasonality in high-frequency water quality data from the Yangtze River basin, China

PubMed Central

He, Bin; Chen, Yaning; Zou, Shan; Wang, Yi; Nover, Daniel; Chen, Wen; Yang, Guishan

2018-01-01

Comprehensive understanding of the long-term trends and seasonality of water quality is important for controlling water pollution. This study focuses on spatio-temporal distributions, long-term trends, and seasonality of water quality in the Yangtze River basin using a combination of the seasonal Mann-Kendall test and time-series decomposition. The used weekly water quality data were from 17 environmental stations for the period January 2004 to December 2015. Results show gradual improvement in water quality during this period in the Yangtze River basin and greater improvement in the Uppermost Yangtze River basin. The larger cities, with high GDP and population density, experienced relatively higher pollution levels due to discharge of industrial and household wastewater. There are higher pollution levels in Xiang and Gan River basins, as indicated by higher NH4-N and CODMn concentrations measured at the stations within these basins. Significant trends in water quality were identified for the 2004–2015 period. Operations of the three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) enhanced pH fluctuations and possibly attenuated CODMn, and NH4-N transportation. Finally, seasonal cycles of varying strength were detected for time-series of pollutants in river discharge. Seasonal patterns in pH indicate that maxima appear in winter, and minima in summer, with the opposite true for CODMn. Accurate understanding of long-term trends and seasonality are necessary goals of water quality monitoring system efforts and the analysis methods described here provide essential information for effectively controlling water pollution. PMID:29466354

Identification of long-term trends and seasonality in high-frequency water quality data from the Yangtze River basin, China.

PubMed

Duan, Weili; He, Bin; Chen, Yaning; Zou, Shan; Wang, Yi; Nover, Daniel; Chen, Wen; Yang, Guishan

2018-01-01

Comprehensive understanding of the long-term trends and seasonality of water quality is important for controlling water pollution. This study focuses on spatio-temporal distributions, long-term trends, and seasonality of water quality in the Yangtze River basin using a combination of the seasonal Mann-Kendall test and time-series decomposition. The used weekly water quality data were from 17 environmental stations for the period January 2004 to December 2015. Results show gradual improvement in water quality during this period in the Yangtze River basin and greater improvement in the Uppermost Yangtze River basin. The larger cities, with high GDP and population density, experienced relatively higher pollution levels due to discharge of industrial and household wastewater. There are higher pollution levels in Xiang and Gan River basins, as indicated by higher NH4-N and CODMn concentrations measured at the stations within these basins. Significant trends in water quality were identified for the 2004-2015 period. Operations of the three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) enhanced pH fluctuations and possibly attenuated CODMn, and NH4-N transportation. Finally, seasonal cycles of varying strength were detected for time-series of pollutants in river discharge. Seasonal patterns in pH indicate that maxima appear in winter, and minima in summer, with the opposite true for CODMn. Accurate understanding of long-term trends and seasonality are necessary goals of water quality monitoring system efforts and the analysis methods described here provide essential information for effectively controlling water pollution.

Variable Renewable Energy in Long-Term Planning Models: A Multi-Model Perspective

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cole, Wesley J.; Frew, Bethany A.; Mai, Trieu T.

Long-term capacity expansion models of the U.S. electricity sector have long been used to inform electric sector stakeholders and decision makers. With the recent surge in variable renewable energy (VRE) generators - primarily wind and solar photovoltaics - the need to appropriately represent VRE generators in these long-term models has increased. VRE generators are especially difficult to represent for a variety of reasons, including their variability, uncertainty, and spatial diversity. To assess current best practices, share methods and data, and identify future research needs for VRE representation in capacity expansion models, four capacity expansion modeling teams from the Electric Powermore » Research Institute, the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory conducted two workshops of VRE modeling for national-scale capacity expansion models. The workshops covered a wide range of VRE topics, including transmission and VRE resource data, VRE capacity value, dispatch and operational modeling, distributed generation, and temporal and spatial resolution. The objectives of the workshops were both to better understand these topics and to improve the representation of VRE across the suite of models. Given these goals, each team incorporated model updates and performed additional analyses between the first and second workshops. This report summarizes the analyses and model 'experiments' that were conducted as part of these workshops as well as the various methods for treating VRE among the four modeling teams. The report also reviews the findings and learnings from the two workshops. We emphasize the areas where there is still need for additional research and development on analysis tools to incorporate VRE into long-term planning and decision-making.« less

Solar cycle and long term variations of mesospheric ice layers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lübken, Franz-Josef; Berger, Uwe; Kiliani, Johannes; Baumgarten, Gerd; Fiedler, Jens; Gerding, Michael

2010-05-01

Ice layers in the summer mesosphere at middle and polar latitudes, frequently called `noctilucent clouds' (NLC) or `polar mesosphere clouds'(PMC), are considered to be sensitive indicators of long term changes in the middle atmosphere. We present a summary of long term observations from the ground and from satellites and compare with results from the LIMA model (Leibniz Institute Middle Atmosphere Model). LIMA nicely reproduces mean conditions of the summer mesopause region and also mean characteristics of ice layers. LIMA nudges to ECMWF data in the troposphere and lower stratosphere which influences the background conditions in the mesosphere and thereby the morphology of ice clouds. A strong correlation between temperatures and PMC altitudes is observed. Applied to historical measurements this give s negligible temperature trends at PMC altitudes (approximately 0.01-0.02 K/y). Trace gas concentrations are kept constant in LIMA except for water vapor which is modified by variable solar radiation. Still, long term trends in temperatures and ice layer parameters are observed, consistent with observations. As will be shown, these trends originate in the stratosphere. Solar cycle effects are expected in ice layers due to variations in background temperatures and water paper. We will present results from LIMA regarding solar cycle variations and compare with NLC observations at our lidar stations in Kühlungsborn (54°N) and ALOMAR (69°N), and also with satellite measurements.

Large scale variability, long-term trends and extreme events in total ozone over the northern mid-latitudes based on satellite time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rieder, H. E.; Staehelin, J.; Maeder, J. A.; Ribatet, M.; Davison, A. C.

2009-04-01

Various generations of satellites (e.g. TOMS, GOME, OMI) made spatial datasets of column ozone available to the scientific community. This study has a special focus on column ozone over the northern mid-latitudes. Tools from geostatistics and extreme value theory are applied to analyze variability, long-term trends and frequency distributions of extreme events in total ozone. In a recent case study (Rieder et al., 2009) new tools from extreme value theory (Coles, 2001; Ribatet, 2007) have been applied to the world's longest total ozone record from Arosa, Switzerland (e.g. Staehelin 1998a,b), in order to describe extreme events in low and high total ozone. Within the current study this analysis is extended to satellite datasets for the northern mid-latitudes. Further special emphasis is given on patterns and spatial correlations and the influence of changes in atmospheric dynamics (e.g. tropospheric and lower stratospheric pressure systems) on column ozone. References: Coles, S.: An Introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values, Springer Series in Statistics, ISBN:1852334592, Springer, Berlin, 2001. Ribatet, M.: POT: Modelling peaks over a threshold, R News, 7, 34-36, 2007. Rieder, H.E., Staehelin, J., Maeder, J.A., Ribatet, M., Stübi, R., Weihs, P., Holawe, F., Peter, T., and Davison, A.C.: From ozone mini holes and mini highs towards extreme value theory: New insights from extreme events and non stationarity, submitted to J. Geophys. Res., 2009. Staehelin, J., Kegel, R., and Harris, N. R.: Trend analysis of the homogenized total ozone series of Arosa (Switzerland), 1929-1996, J. Geophys. Res., 103(D7), 8389-8400, doi:10.1029/97JD03650, 1998a. Staehelin, J., Renaud, A., Bader, J., McPeters, R., Viatte, P., Hoegger, B., Bugnion, V., Giroud, M., and Schill, H.: Total ozone series at Arosa (Switzerland): Homogenization and data comparison, J. Geophys. Res., 103(D5), 5827-5842, doi:10.1029/97JD02402, 1998b.

Analyzing the Effects of Horizontal Resolution on Long-Term Coupled WRF-CMAQ Simulations

EPA Science Inventory

The objective of this study is to determine the adequacy of using a relatively coarse horizontal resolution (i.e. 36 km) to simulate long-term trends of pollutant concentrations and radiation variables with the coupled WRF-CMAQ model. To this end, WRF-CMAQ simulations over the co...

Variability in age and size at maturation, reproductive longevity, and long-term growth dynamics for Kemp's ridley sea turtles in the Gulf of Mexico.

PubMed

Avens, Larisa; Goshe, Lisa R; Coggins, Lewis; Shaver, Donna J; Higgins, Ben; Landry, Andre M; Bailey, Rhonda

2017-01-01

Effective management of protected sea turtle populations requires knowledge not only of mean values for demographic and life-history parameters, but also temporal and spatial trends, variability, and underlying causes. For endangered Kemp's ridley sea turtles (Lepidochelys kempii), the need for baseline information of this type has been emphasized during attempts to understand causes underlying the recent truncation in the recovery trajectory for nesting females. To provide insight into variability in age and size at sexual maturation (ASM and SSM) and long-term growth patterns likely to influence population trends, we conducted skeletochronological analysis of humerus bones from 333 Kemp's ridleys stranded throughout the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) from 1993 to 2010. Ranges of possible ASMs (6.8 to 21.8 yr) and SSMs (53.3 to 68.3 cm straightline carapace length (SCL)) estimated using the "rapprochement" skeletal growth mark associated with maturation were broad, supporting incorporation of a maturation schedule in Kemp's ridley population models. Mean ASMs estimated from rapprochement and by fitting logistic, generalized additive mixed, and von Bertalanffy growth models to age and growth data ranged from 11 to 13 yr; confidence intervals for the logistic model predicted maturation of 95% of the population between 11.9 and 14.8 yr. Early juvenile somatic growth rates in the GOM were greater than those previously reported for the Atlantic, indicating potential for differences in maturation trajectories between regions. Finally, long-term, significant decreases in somatic growth response were found for both juveniles and adults, which could influence recruitment to the reproductive population and observed nesting population trends.

An intercomparison of multidecadal observational and reanalysis data sets for global total ozone trends and variability analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bai, Kaixu; Chang, Ni-Bin; Shi, Runhe; Yu, Huijia; Gao, Wei

2017-07-01

A four-step adaptive ozone trend estimation scheme is proposed by integrating multivariate linear regression (MLR) and ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) to analyze the long-term variability of total column ozone from a set of four observational and reanalysis total ozone data sets, including the rarely explored ERA-Interim total ozone reanalysis, from 1979 to 2009. Consistency among the four data sets was first assessed, indicating a mean relative difference of 1% and root-mean-square error around 2% on average, with respect to collocated ground-based total ozone observations. Nevertheless, large drifts with significant spatiotemporal inhomogeneity were diagnosed in ERA-Interim after 1995. To emphasize long-term trends, natural ozone variations associated with the solar cycle, quasi-biennial oscillation, volcanic aerosols, and El Niño-Southern Oscillation were modeled with MLR and then removed from each total ozone record, respectively, before performing EEMD analyses. The resulting rates of change estimated from the proposed scheme captured the long-term ozone variability well, with an inflection time of 2000 clearly detected. The positive rates of change after 2000 suggest that the ozone layer seems to be on a healing path, but the results are still inadequate to conclude an actual recovery of the ozone layer, and more observational evidence is needed. Further investigations suggest that biases embedded in total ozone records may significantly impact ozone trend estimations by resulting in large uncertainty or even negative rates of change after 2000.

Long-Term Economic and Labor Forecast Trends for Washington. 1996.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lefberg, Irv; And Others

This publication provides actual historical and long-term forecast data on labor force, total wage and salary employment, industry employment, and personal income for the state of Washington. The data are based upon the Washington Office of Financial Management long-term population forecast. Chapter 1 presents long-term forecasts of Washington…

Long-term growth trends of red spruce and fraser fir at Mt. Rogers, Virginia and Mt. Mitchell, North Carolina

Treesearch

J.C.G. Goelz; Thomas E. Burk; Shepard M. Zedaker

1999-01-01

Cross-sectional area growth and height growth of Fraser fir and red spruce trees growing in Virginia and North Carolina were analyzed to identify possible long-term growth trends. Cross-sectional area growth provided no evidence of growth decline. The individual discs were classified according to parameter estimates of the growth trend equation. The predominant pattern...

The Spatiotemporal Structure of 20th Century Climate Variations in Observations and Reanalyses. Part 1; Long-term Trend

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, Junye; DelGenio, Anthony D.; Carlson, Barbara e.; Bosilovich, Michael G.

2007-01-01

The dominant interannual El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon (ENSO) and the short length of climate observation records make it difficult to study long-term climate variations in the spatiotemporal domain. Based on the fact that the ENS0 signal spreads to remote regions and induces delayed climate variation through atmospheric teleconnections, we develop an ENSO-removal method through which the ENS0 signal can be approximately removed at the grid box level from the spatiotemporal field of a climate parameter. After this signal is removed, long-term climate variations, namely, the global warming trend (GW) and the Pacific pan-decadal variability (PDV), are isolated at middle and low latitudes in the climate parameter fields from observed and reanalyses datasets. Except for known GW characteristics, the warming that occurs in the Pacific basin (approximately 0.4K in the 2oth century) is much weaker than in surrounding regions and the other two ocean basins (approximately 0.8K). The modest warming in the Pacific basin is likely due to its dynamic nature on the interannual and decadal time scales and/or the leakage of upper ocean water through the Indonesian Throughflow. Based on NCEP/NCAR and ERA-40 reanalyses, a comprehensive atmospheric structure associated with GW is given. Significant discrepancies exist between the two datasets, especially in the tightly coupled dynamic and water vapor fields. The dynamic field based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, which shows a change in the Walker Circulation, is consistent with the GW change in the surface temperature field. However, intensification in the Hadley Circulation is associated with GW trend in the ERA-40 reanalysis.

Long-term spatiotemporal trends and health risk assessment of oyster arsenic levels in coastal waters of northern South China Sea.

PubMed

Wang, Xuefeng; Wang, Lifei; Jia, Xiaoping; Jackson, Donald A

2017-09-01

Long-term spatiotemporal trends and health risk assessment of oyster arsenic levels in the coastal waters of northern South China Sea were investigated in order to help improve the quality and safety control and sustainable aquaculture for mollusks in China. Cultured oysters (Crassostrea rivularis) collected from the waters of 23 bays, harbors, and estuaries along the coast of northern South China Sea from 1989 to 2012 were examined for spatial patterns and long-term temporal trends of oyster arsenic levels. Single-factor index and health risk assessment were used to quantify arsenic exposure to human health through oyster consumption. Overall, arsenic was detected in 97.4% of the oyster samples, and oyster arsenic levels were non-detectable-2.51 mg/kg with an average of 0.63 ± 0.54 mg/kg. Oyster arsenic levels in the coastal waters of northern South China Sea showed an overall decline from 1989 to 2012, remained relatively low since 2005, and slightly increased after 2007. Oyster arsenic levels in Guangdong coastal waters were much higher with more variation than in Guangxi and Hainan coastal waters, and the long-term trends of oyster arsenic levels in Guangdong coastal waters dominated the overall trends of oyster arsenic levels in the coastal waters of northern South China Sea. Within Guangdong Province, oyster arsenic levels were highest in east Guangdong coastal waters, followed by the Pearl River estuary and west Guangdong coastal waters. Single-factor index ranged between 0.27 and 0.97, and average health risk coefficient was 3.85 × 10 -5 , both suggesting that oyster arsenic levels in northern South China Sea are within the safe range for human consumption. However, long-term attention should be given to seafood market monitoring in China and the risk of arsenic exposure to human health through oyster consumption.

Long-Term Vegetation Trends Detected In Northern Canada Using Landsat Image Stacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fraser, R.; Olthof, I.; Carrière, M.; Deschamps, A.; Pouliot, D.

2011-12-01

Evidence of recent productivity increases in arctic vegetation comes from a variety of sources. At local scales, long-term plot measurements in North America are beginning to record increases in vascular plant cover and biomass. At landscape scales, expansion and densification of shrubs has been observed using repeat oblique photographs. Finally, continental-scale increases in vegetation "greenness" have been documented based on analysis of coarse resolution (≥ 1 km) NOAA-AVHRR satellite imagery. In this study we investigated intermediate, regional-level changes occurring in tundra vegetation since 1984 using the Landsat TM and ETM+ satellite image archive. Four study areas averaging 13,619 km2 were located over widely distributed national parks in northern Canada (Ivvavik, Sirmilik, Torngat Mountains, and Wapusk). Time-series image stacks of 16-41 growing-season Landsat scenes from overlapping WRS-2 frames were acquired spanning periods of 17-25 years. Each pixel's unique temporal database of clear-sky values was then analyzed for trends in four indices (NDVI, Tasseled Cap Brightness, Greenness and Wetness) using robust linear regression. The trends were further related to changes in the fractional cover of functional vegetation types using regression tree models trained with plot data and high resolution (≤ 10 m) satellite imagery. We found all four study areas to have a larger proportion of significant (p<0.05) positive greenness trends (range 6.1-25.5%) by comparison to negative trends (range 0.3-4.1%). For the three study areas where regression tree models could be derived, consistent trends of increasing shrub or vascular fractional cover and decreasing bare cover were predicted. The Landsat-based observations were associated with warming trends in each park over the analysis periods. Many of the major changes observed could be corroborated using published studies or field observations.

Trend Change Detection in NDVI Time Series: Effects of Inter-Annual Variability and Methodology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Forkel, Matthias; Carvalhais, Nuno; Verbesselt, Jan; Mahecha, Miguel D.; Neigh, Christopher S.R.; Reichstein, Markus

2013-01-01

Changing trends in ecosystem productivity can be quantified using satellite observations of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). However, the estimation of trends from NDVI time series differs substantially depending on analyzed satellite dataset, the corresponding spatiotemporal resolution, and the applied statistical method. Here we compare the performance of a wide range of trend estimation methods and demonstrate that performance decreases with increasing inter-annual variability in the NDVI time series. Trend slope estimates based on annual aggregated time series or based on a seasonal-trend model show better performances than methods that remove the seasonal cycle of the time series. A breakpoint detection analysis reveals that an overestimation of breakpoints in NDVI trends can result in wrong or even opposite trend estimates. Based on our results, we give practical recommendations for the application of trend methods on long-term NDVI time series. Particularly, we apply and compare different methods on NDVI time series in Alaska, where both greening and browning trends have been previously observed. Here, the multi-method uncertainty of NDVI trends is quantified through the application of the different trend estimation methods. Our results indicate that greening NDVI trends in Alaska are more spatially and temporally prevalent than browning trends. We also show that detected breakpoints in NDVI trends tend to coincide with large fires. Overall, our analyses demonstrate that seasonal trend methods need to be improved against inter-annual variability to quantify changing trends in ecosystem productivity with higher accuracy.

Decoupling Solar Variability and Instrument Trends Using the Multiple Same-Irradiance-Level (MuSIL) Analysis Technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woods, Thomas N.; Eparvier, Francis G.; Harder, Jerald; Snow, Martin

2018-05-01

The solar spectral irradiance (SSI) dataset is a key record for studying and understanding the energetics and radiation balance in Earth's environment. Understanding the long-term variations of the SSI over timescales of the 11-year solar activity cycle and longer is critical for many Sun-Earth research topics. Satellite measurements of the SSI have been made since the 1970s, most of them in the ultraviolet, but recently also in the visible and near-infrared. A limiting factor for the accuracy of previous solar variability results is the uncertainties for the instrument degradation corrections, which need fairly large corrections relative to the amount of solar cycle variability at some wavelengths. The primary objective of this investigation has been to separate out solar cycle variability and any residual uncorrected instrumental trends in the SSI measurements from the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) mission and the Thermosphere, Mesosphere, Ionosphere, Energetic, and Dynamics (TIMED) mission. A new technique called the Multiple Same-Irradiance-Level (MuSIL) analysis has been developed, which examines an SSI time series at different levels of solar activity to provide long-term trends in an SSI record, and the most common result is a downward trend that most likely stems from uncorrected instrument degradation. This technique has been applied to each wavelength in the SSI records from SORCE (2003 - present) and TIMED (2002 - present) to provide new solar cycle variability results between 27 nm and 1600 nm with a resolution of about 1 nm at most wavelengths. This technique, which was validated with the highly accurate total solar irradiance (TSI) record, has an estimated relative uncertainty of about 5% of the measured solar cycle variability. The MuSIL results are further validated with the comparison of the new solar cycle variability results from different solar cycles.

Statistical approach to the analysis of olive long-term pollen season trends in southern Spain.

PubMed

García-Mozo, H; Yaezel, L; Oteros, J; Galán, C

2014-03-01

Analysis of long-term airborne pollen counts makes it possible not only to chart pollen-season trends but also to track changing patterns in flowering phenology. Changes in higher plant response over a long interval are considered among the most valuable bioindicators of climate change impact. Phenological-trend models can also provide information regarding crop production and pollen-allergen emission. The interest of this information makes essential the election of the statistical analysis for time series study. We analysed trends and variations in the olive flowering season over a 30-year period (1982-2011) in southern Europe (Córdoba, Spain), focussing on: annual Pollen Index (PI); Pollen Season Start (PSS), Peak Date (PD), Pollen Season End (PSE) and Pollen Season Duration (PSD). Apart from the traditional Linear Regression analysis, a Seasonal-Trend Decomposition procedure based on Loess (STL) and an ARIMA model were performed. Linear regression results indicated a trend toward delayed PSE and earlier PSS and PD, probably influenced by the rise in temperature. These changes are provoking longer flowering periods in the study area. The use of the STL technique provided a clearer picture of phenological behaviour. Data decomposition on pollination dynamics enabled the trend toward an alternate bearing cycle to be distinguished from the influence of other stochastic fluctuations. Results pointed to show a rising trend in pollen production. With a view toward forecasting future phenological trends, ARIMA models were constructed to predict PSD, PSS and PI until 2016. Projections displayed a better goodness of fit than those derived from linear regression. Findings suggest that olive reproductive cycle is changing considerably over the last 30years due to climate change. Further conclusions are that STL improves the effectiveness of traditional linear regression in trend analysis, and ARIMA models can provide reliable trend projections for future years taking into

The impact of inter-annual variability of annual cycle on long-term persistence of surface air temperature in long historical records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, Qimin; Nian, Da; Fu, Zuntao

2018-02-01

Previous studies in the literature show that the annual cycle of surface air temperature (SAT) is changing in both amplitude and phase, and the SAT departures from the annual cycle are long-term correlated. However, the classical definition of temperature anomalies is based on the assumption that the annual cycle is constant, which contradicts the fact of changing annual cycle. How to quantify the impact of the changing annual cycle on the long-term correlation of temperature anomaly variability still remains open. In this paper, a recently developed data adaptive analysis tool, the nonlinear mode decomposition (NMD), is used to extract and remove time-varying annual cycle to reach the new defined temperature anomalies in which time-dependent amplitude of annual cycle has been considered. By means of detrended fluctuation analysis, the impact induced by inter-annual variability from the time-dependent amplitude of annual cycle has been quantified on the estimation of long-term correlation of long historical temperature anomalies in Europe. The results show that the classical climatology annual cycle is supposed to lack inter-annual fluctuation which will lead to a maximum artificial deviation centering around 600 days. This maximum artificial deviation is crucial to defining the scaling range and estimating the long-term persistence exponent accurately. Selecting different scaling range could lead to an overestimation or underestimation of the long-term persistence exponent. By using NMD method to extract the inter-annual fluctuations of annual cycle, this artificial crossover can be weakened to extend a wider scaling range with fewer uncertainties.

Museum Preserved Bivalves as Indicators of Long-term Trends in Methylmercury Concentrations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luengen, A. C.; Foslund, H. M.; Greenfield, B. K.

2015-12-01

Despite the many efforts to reduce mercury concentrations in the environment, there are relatively few datasets on long-term trends in mercury in biota, especially for the bioavailable form, methylmercury (MeHg). This study used museum preserved bivalves (stored in ethanol) to look at MeHg trends in the Asian date mussel Musculista senhousia and the Asian clam Potamocorbula amurensis, collected from San Francisco Bay, California between 1975 and 2012. For each sampling date, 4 to 15 individuals were obtained from museum collections (N = 156 total specimens), freeze-dried, weighed, homogenized, digested, and individually analyzed for MeHg using trace metal clean techniques. The bivalves were also analyzed for δ13C and δ15N to look for changes in food web structure. P. amurensis specimens were only available from 1988 to 2012, and an increase in MeHg was observed during that time. In contrast, M. senhousia specimens were available for the entire 37 year period and exhibited a significant decline in MeHg in the southern reach of the estuary (South Bay). The median MeHg concentration in M. senhousia was highest at 239 ng/g dw in October 1975. That year was the last year of operations for the New Almaden Mercury Mining District, which drained into South Bay. By the 1990s, MeHg concentrations in M. senhousia dropped significantly to a median of 37 ng/g dw. Isotopic δ15N values did not support a hypothesis of reduced trophic position causing the MeHg decline. Over the study duration, δ15N increased in M. senhousia, which we attributed to a baseline shift. We also observed a decline in δ13C since 2000, which may represent a shift in bivalve carbon towards greater utilization of planktonic sources. To validate the use of museum specimens, we ran a preservation study, where we collected fresh bivalves, fixed them in ethanol or formalin, and then transferred them to ethanol for long-term storage. Although MeHg concentrations increased after 1 week, they stabilized over

Detecting long-term temporal trends in sediment-bound trace metals from urbanised catchments.

PubMed

Sharley, David J; Sharp, Simon M; Bourgues, Sophie; Pettigrove, Vincent J

2016-12-01

The shift from rural lifestyles to urban living has dramatically altered the way humans interact and live across the globe. With over 50% of the world's populations living within cities, and significant increases expected over the next 50 years, it is critical that changes to social, economic and environmental sustainability of cities globally be implicit. Protecting and enhancing aquatic ecosystems, which provide important ecosystem services, is challenging. A number of factors influence pollutants in urban waterways including changes in land-use, impervious area and stormwater discharges, with sediment-bound pollution a major issue worldwide. This work aimed to investigate the spatial and temporal distribution of trace metals in freshwater sediments from six urbanised catchment over a 30-year period. It provides an estimate of pollution using a geoaccumulation index and examines possible toxicity using a probable effect concentration quotient (mPECq). Results showed significant temporal changes in metal concentrations over time, with lead generally decreasing in all but one of the sites, attributed to significant changes in environmental policies and the active elimination of lead products. Temporal changes in other metals were variable and likely dependent on site-specific factors. While it is likely that diffuse pollution is driving changes in zinc, for metals such as lead, chromium and copper, it is likely that watershed landuse and/or point sources are more important. The results clearly indicated that changes to watershed landuse, environmental policy and pollution abatement programs are all driving changes in sediment quality, highlighting the utility of long-term sediment monitoring for assessment of urban watershed condition. While this study has demonstrated the utility of detecting long-term changes in metal concentrations, this approach could easily be adapted to detect and assess future trends in other hydrophobic contaminants and emerging chemicals

Timescales for determining temperature and dissolved oxygen trends in the Long Island Sound (LIS) estuary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Staniec, Allison; Vlahos, Penny

2017-12-01

Long-term time series represent a critical part of the oceanographic community's efforts to discern natural and anthropogenically forced variations in the environment. They provide regular measurements of climate relevant indicators including temperature, oxygen concentrations, and salinity. When evaluating time series, it is essential to isolate long-term trends from autocorrelation in data and noise due to natural variability. Herein we apply a statistical approach, well-established in atmospheric time series, to key parameters in the U.S. east coast's Long Island Sound estuary (LIS). Analysis shows that the LIS time series (established in the early 1990s) is sufficiently long to detect significant trends in physical-chemical parameters including temperature (T) and dissolved oxygen (DO). Over the last two decades, overall (combined surface and deep) LIS T has increased at an average rate of 0.08 ± 0.03 °C yr-1 while overall DO has dropped at an average rate of 0.03 ± 0.01 mg L-1yr-1 since 1994 at the 95% confidence level. This trend is notably faster than the global open ocean T trend (0.01 °C yr-1), as might be expected for a shallower estuarine system. T and DO trends were always significant for the existing time series using four month data increments. Rates of change of DO and T in LIS are strongly correlated and the rate of decrease of DO concentrations is consistent with the expected reduced solubility of DO at these higher temperatures. Thus, changes in T alone, across decadal timescales can account for between 33 and 100% of the observed decrease in DO. This has significant implications for other dissolved gases and the long-term management of LIS hypoxia.

Variability in age and size at maturation, reproductive longevity, and long-term growth dynamics for Kemp's ridley sea turtles in the Gulf of Mexico

PubMed Central

Goshe, Lisa R.; Coggins, Lewis; Shaver, Donna J.; Higgins, Ben; Landry, Andre M.; Bailey, Rhonda

2017-01-01

Effective management of protected sea turtle populations requires knowledge not only of mean values for demographic and life-history parameters, but also temporal and spatial trends, variability, and underlying causes. For endangered Kemp’s ridley sea turtles (Lepidochelys kempii), the need for baseline information of this type has been emphasized during attempts to understand causes underlying the recent truncation in the recovery trajectory for nesting females. To provide insight into variability in age and size at sexual maturation (ASM and SSM) and long-term growth patterns likely to influence population trends, we conducted skeletochronological analysis of humerus bones from 333 Kemp’s ridleys stranded throughout the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) from 1993 to 2010. Ranges of possible ASMs (6.8 to 21.8 yr) and SSMs (53.3 to 68.3 cm straightline carapace length (SCL)) estimated using the “rapprochement” skeletal growth mark associated with maturation were broad, supporting incorporation of a maturation schedule in Kemp’s ridley population models. Mean ASMs estimated from rapprochement and by fitting logistic, generalized additive mixed, and von Bertalanffy growth models to age and growth data ranged from 11 to 13 yr; confidence intervals for the logistic model predicted maturation of 95% of the population between 11.9 and 14.8 yr. Early juvenile somatic growth rates in the GOM were greater than those previously reported for the Atlantic, indicating potential for differences in maturation trajectories between regions. Finally, long-term, significant decreases in somatic growth response were found for both juveniles and adults, which could influence recruitment to the reproductive population and observed nesting population trends. PMID:28333937

Long-term variation of total ozone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kane, R. P.

1988-03-01

The long-term variation of total ozone is studied for 1957 up to date for different latitude zones. The 3-year running averages show that, apart from a small portion showing parallelism with sunspot cycles, the trends in different latitude zones are dissimilar. In particular, where northern latitudes show a rising trend, the southern latitudes show an opposite (decreasing) trend. In the north-temperate group, Europe, North America and Asia show dissimilar trends. The longer data series (1932 ownards) for Arosa shows, besides a solar-cycle-dependent component, a steady level during 1932 1953 and a down-trend thereafter up to date. Very localised but long-lasting circulation patterns, different in different geographical regions, are indicated.

Long-term trends in first arrival and first egg laying dates of some migrant and resident bird species in northern Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rubolini, Diego; Ambrosini, Roberto; Caffi, Mario; Brichetti, Pierandrea; Armiraglio, Stefano; Saino, Nicola

2007-08-01

Climate change is affecting the phenology of seasonal events in Europe and the Northern Hemisphere, as shown by several studies of birds’ timing of migration and reproduction. Here, we analyse the long-term (1982-2006) trends of first arrival dates of four long-distance migratory birds [swift ( Apus apus), nightingale ( Luscinia megarhynchos), barn swallow ( Hirundo rustica), and house martin ( Delichon urbicum)] and first egg laying dates of two migrant (swift, barn swallow) and two resident species [starling ( Sturnus vulgaris), Italian sparrow ( Passer italiae)] at a study site in northern Italy. We also addressed the effects of local weather (temperature and precipitation) and a climate index (the North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO) on the interannual variability of phenological events. We found that the swift and the barn swallow significantly advanced both arrival and laying dates, whereas all other species did not show any significant temporal trend in either arrival or laying date. The earlier arrival of swifts was explained by increasing local temperatures in April, whereas this was not the case for arrival dates of swallows and first egg laying dates of both species. In addition, arrival dates of house martins were earlier following high NAO winters, while nightingale arrival was earlier when local spring rainfall was greater. Finally, Italian sparrow onset of reproduction was anticipated by greater spring rainfall, but delayed by high spring NAO anomalies, and swift’s onset of reproduction was anticipated by abundant rainfall prior to reproduction. There were no significant temporal trends in the interval between onset of laying and arrival in either the swift or the barn swallow. Our findings therefore indicate that birds may show idiosyncratic responses to climate variability at different spatial scales, though some species may be adjusting their calendar to rapidly changing climatic conditions.

Trend analysis of long-term temperature time series in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohsin, Tanzina; Gough, William A.

2010-08-01

As the majority of the world’s population is living in urban environments, there is growing interest in studying local urban climates. In this paper, for the first time, the long-term trends (31-162 years) of temperature change have been analyzed for the Greater Toronto Area (GTA). Annual and seasonal time series for a number of urban, suburban, and rural weather stations are considered. Non-parametric statistical techniques such as Mann-Kendall test and Theil-Sen slope estimation are used primarily for the assessing of the significance and detection of trends, and the sequential Mann test is used to detect any abrupt climate change. Statistically significant trends for annual mean and minimum temperatures are detected for almost all stations in the GTA. Winter is found to be the most coherent season contributing substantially to the increase in annual minimum temperature. The analyses of the abrupt changes in temperature suggest that the beginning of the increasing trend in Toronto started after the 1920s and then continued to increase to the 1960s. For all stations, there is a significant increase of annual and seasonal (particularly winter) temperatures after the 1980s. In terms of the linkage between urbanization and spatiotemporal thermal patterns, significant linear trends in annual mean and minimum temperature are detected for the period of 1878-1978 for the urban station, Toronto, while for the rural counterparts, the trends are not significant. Also, for all stations in the GTA that are situated in all directions except south of Toronto, substantial temperature change is detected for the periods of 1970-2000 and 1989-2000. It is concluded that the urbanization in the GTA has significantly contributed to the increase of the annual mean temperatures during the past three decades. In addition to urbanization, the influence of local climate, topography, and larger scale warming are incorporated in the analysis of the trends.

Short-term variability and long-term change in the composition of the littoral zone fish community in Spirit Lake, Iowa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pierce, C.L.; Sexton, M.D.; Pelham, M.E.; Larscheid, J.G.

2001-01-01

We assessed short-term variability and long-term change in the composition of the littoral fish community in Spirit Lake, Iowa. Fish were sampled in several locations at night with large beach seines during spring, summer and fall of 1995-1998. Long-term changes were inferred from comparison with a similar study conducted over 70 y earlier in Spirit Lake. We found 26 species in the littoral zone. The number of species per sample ranged from 4 to 18, averaging 11.8. The average number of species per sample was higher at stations with greater vegetation density. A distinct seasonal pattern was evident in the number of species collected per sample in most years, increasing steadily from spring to fall. Patterns of variability within our 1995-1998 study period suggest that: (1) numerous samples are necessary to adequately characterize a littoral fish community, (2) sampling should be done when vegetation and young-of-year densities are highest and (3) sampling during a single year is inadequate to reveal the full community. The number of native species has declined by approximately 25% over the last 70 y. A coincident decline in littoral vegetation and associated habitat changes during the same period are likely causes of the long-term community change.

Atmospheric Parameter Climatologies from AIRS: Monitoring Short-, and Longer-Term Climate Variabilities and 'Trends'

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Molnar, Gyula; Susskind, Joel

2008-01-01

The AIRS instrument is currently the best space-based tool to simultaneously monitor the vertical distribution of key climatically important atmospheric parameters as well as surface properties, and has provided high quality data for more than 5 years. AIRS analysis results produced at the GODDARD/DAAC, based on Versions 4 & 5 of the AIRS retrieval algorithm, are currently available for public use. Here, first we present an assessment of interrelationships of anomalies (proxies of climate variability based on 5 full years, since Sept. 2002) of various climate parameters at different spatial scales. We also present AIRS-retrievals-based global, regional and 1x1 degree grid-scale "trend"-analyses of important atmospheric parameters for this 5-year period. Note that here "trend" simply means the linear fit to the anomaly (relative the mean seasonal cycle) time series of various parameters at the above-mentioned spatial scales, and we present these to illustrate the usefulness of continuing AIRS-based climate observations. Preliminary validation efforts, in terms of intercomparisons of interannual variabilities with other available satellite data analysis results, will also be addressed. For example, we show that the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) interannual spatial variabilities from the available state-of-the-art CERES measurements and from the AIRS computations are in remarkably good agreement. Version 6 of the AIRS retrieval scheme (currently under development) promises to further improve bias agreements for the absolute values by implementing a more accurate radiative transfer model for the OLR computations and by improving surface emissivity retrievals.

Multi-decade Measurements of the Long-Term Trends of Atmospheric Species by High-Spectral-Resolution Infrared Solar Absorption Spectroscopy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rinsland, Curtis P.; Chiou, Linda; Goldman, Aaron; Hannigan, James W.

2010-01-01

Solar absorption spectra were recorded for the first time in 5 years with the McMath Fourier transform spectrometer at the US National solar Observatory on Kitt Peak in southern Arizona, USA (31.91 N latitude, 111.61 W longitude, 2.09 km altitude). The solar absorption spectra cover 750-1300 and 1850-5000 cm(sup -1) and were recorded on 20 days during March-June 2009. The measurements mark the continuation of a long-term record of atmospheric chemical composition measurements that have been used to quantify seasonal cycles and long-term trends of both tropospheric and stratospheric species from observations that began i 1977. Fits to the measured spectra have been performed, and they indicate the spectra obtained since return to operational status are nearly free of channeling and the instrument line shape function is well reproduced taking into account the measurement parameters. We report updated time series measurements of total columns for six atmospheric species and their analysis for seasonal cycles and long-term trends. An sn example, the time series fit shows a decrease in the annual increase rate i Montreal-Protocol-regulated chlorofluorocarbon CCL2F2 from 1.51 plus or minus 0.38% yr(sup -1) at the beginning of the time span to -1.54 plus or minus 1.28 yr(sup -1) at the end of the time span, 1 sigma, and hence provides evidence for the impact of those regulations on the trend.

Long-term trends in shortgrass steppe vegetation during a 21-year period of increasing temperatures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Alward, R.D.; Milchunas, D.G.; Detling, J.K.

Long-term weather records from the Central Plains Experimental Range revealed a general warming trend in average annual temperatures from 1971 through 1991. This was largely the result of a significant increase in mean annual minimum temperature (T{sub min}). Permanently marked vegetation quadrants were monitored for much of this same period. We constructed linear correlational models to assess relationships of annual and seasonal temperature and precipitation with plant densities and aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) within a grazing exclosure. Response variables correlated with T{sub min} included: (i) tiller densities of the dominant grass, Bouteloua gracilis, and other warm season grasses, (ii)more » forb densities and ANPP, and (iii) total ANPP. Responses correlated with T{sub max} included: (i) total basal cover and (ii) densities and ANPP of several species. Plant species diversity was correlated with spring precipitation. Some species responded to the interactive effects of spring temperatures and precipitation. This investigation suggests that shortgrass steppe vegetation may be sensitive to climate change and supports predictions that asymmetric changes in diurnal temperatures may be an important component of climate change.« less

Long-term trends of changes in pine and oak foliar nitrogen metabolism in response to chronic nitrogen amendments at Harvard Forest, MA

Treesearch

Rakesh Minocha; Swathi A. Turlapati; Stephanie Long; William H. McDowell; Subhash C. Minocha

2015-01-01

We evaluated the long-term (1995-2008) trends in foliar and sapwood metabolism, soil solution chemistry and tree mortality rates in response to chronic nitrogen (N) additions to pine and hardwood stands at the Harvard Forest Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) site. Common stress-related metabolites like polyamines (PAs), free amino acids (AAs) and inorganic elements...

A Lagrangian analysis of mid-latitude stratospheric ozone variability and long-term trends.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koch, G.; Wernli, H.; Staehelin, J.; Peter, T.

2002-05-01

A systematic Lagrangian investigation is performed of wintertime high-resolution stratospheric ozone soundings at Payerne, Switzerland, from January 1970 to March 2001. For every ozone sounding, 10-day backward trajectories have been calculated on 16 isentropic levels using NCEP reanalysis data. Both the minimum/maximum latitude and potential vorticity (PV) averaged along the trajectories are used as indicators of the air parcels' ``origin''. The importance of transport for the understandin g of single ozone profiles is confirmed by a statistical analysis which shows that negative/positive ozone deviations gener ally coincide with transport from regions with climatologically low/high ozone values. The stable relationship between PV and ozone for the 32 year period indicates either no direct chemical impact or no temporal change of this impact. In the upper layer the PV-ozone relationship changes significantly after 1987 and a separate trend analysis for air masses transported from the polar, midlatitude and subtropical regions shows negative ozone trends in all three categories (with a maximum for the polar region). This is not direct evidence for, but would be in agreement with, an increased chemical ozone depletion in the Arctic since the late 1980s. The reasons for the negative trend in the mid-stratospheric air masses with subtropical origin that are in qualitative agreement with recent satellite observations are presently unknown.

Comments on "Long-Term Variations of Exospheric Temperature Inferred From foF1 Observations: A Comparison to ISR Ti Trend Estimates" by Perrone and Mikhailov

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Shun-Rong; Holt, John M.; Erickson, Philip J.; Goncharenko, Larisa P.

2018-05-01

Perrone and Mikhailov (2017, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JA024193) and Mikhailov et al. (2017, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JA023909) have recently examined thermospheric and ionospheric long-term trends using a data set of four thermospheric parameters (Tex, [O], [N2], and [O2]) and solar EUV flux. These data were derived from one single ionospheric parameter, foF1, using a nonlinear fitting procedure involving a photochemical model for the F1 peak. The F1 peak is assumed at the transition height ht with the linear recombination for atomic oxygen ions being equal to the quadratic recombination for molecular ions. This procedure has a number of obvious problems that are not addressed or not sufficiently justified. The potentially large ambiguities and biases in derived parameters make them unsuitable for precise quantitative ionospheric and thermospheric long-term trend studies. Furthermore, we assert that Perrone and Mikhailov (2017, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JA024193) conclusions regarding incoherent scatter radar (ISR) ion temperature analysis for long-term trend studies are incorrect and in particular are based on a misunderstanding of the nature of the incoherent scatter radar measurement process. Large ISR data sets remain a consistent and statistically robust method for determining long term secular plasma temperature trends.

Nonlinear stratospheric variability: multifractal de-trended fluctuation analysis and singularity spectra

PubMed Central

Domeisen, Daniela I. V.

2016-01-01

Characterizing the stratosphere as a turbulent system, temporal fluctuations often show different correlations for different time scales as well as intermittent behaviour that cannot be captured by a single scaling exponent. In this study, the different scaling laws in the long-term stratospheric variability are studied using multifractal de-trended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA). The analysis is performed comparing four re-analysis products and different realizations of an idealized numerical model, isolating the role of topographic forcing and seasonal variability, as well as the absence of climate teleconnections and small-scale forcing. The Northern Hemisphere (NH) shows a transition of scaling exponents for time scales shorter than about 1 year, for which the variability is multifractal and scales in time with a power law corresponding to a red spectrum, to longer time scales, for which the variability is monofractal and scales in time with a power law corresponding to white noise. Southern Hemisphere (SH) variability also shows a transition at annual scales. The SH also shows a narrower dynamical range in multifractality than the NH, as seen in the generalized Hurst exponent and in the singularity spectra. The numerical integrations show that the models are able to reproduce the low-frequency variability but are not able to fully capture the shorter term variability of the stratosphere. PMID:27493560

Long term (1987-2012) trends in water chemistry of acid sensitive Swedish lakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Futter, Martyn; Valinia, Salar; Fölster, Jens

2014-05-01

Acidification of surface waters is a serious concern in Sweden. During the 1970s and 1980s, many surface waters in Sweden were acidified by long-range pollution. Legislated emissions reductions have led to the recovery of many water bodies but today, there are concerns about the possibility of re-acidification. Sweden is committed to a goal of natural acidification only (i.e. no anthropogenic acidification). Here, we present long term (1987-2012) trends in strong acid anion, base cation, organic carbon and alkalinity measurements. Lakes are defined as acidified in Sweden if pH is more than 0.4 units less than a reference (1860) pH estimated using MAGIC, a widely used process-based model of acidification. Using this criteria, many acid sensitive Swedish lakes are still acidified. A changing climate and more intensive forest harvesting may further delay the recovery from acidification. Average measured alkalinity in the 38 lakes presented here was <= 0.02 mekv/l between 2000-2012. Strong acid anion concentrations declined, primarily as a result of declines in sulfate. Chloride is now the dominant anion in many of these lakes. Base cations concentrations have declined less rapidly, leading to an increase in charge balance ANC. This increase in charge balance ANC has not been matched by an increase in measured alkalinity. Total organic carbon concentrations have increased significantly in many of these lakes, to the point where modeled organic acidity is now approximately equal to inorganic acidity. While the results presented here conform to acidification theory, they illustrate the value of long-term monitoring for assessing the effects of pollutant reduction measures, identifying new threats to water quality and corroborating model results. Most importantly, the long-term monitoring results presented here can be an important tool for informing environmental policy.

Long-term trends in climate and hydrology in an agricultural headwater watershed of central Pennsylvania, USA

Treesearch

Ray B. Bryant; Haiming Lu; Kyle R. Elkin; Anthony R. Buda; Amy S. Collick; Gordon J. Folmar; Peter J. Kleinman

2016-01-01

Climate change has emerged as a key issue facing agriculture and water resources in the US. Long-term (1968-2012) temperature, precipitation and streamflow data from a small (7.3 km2) watershed in east-central Pennsylvania was used to examine climatic and hydrologic trends in the context of recent climate change. Annual mean temperatures increased 0.38°C per decade,...

Long-term trends of surface ozone and its influencing factors at the Mt Waliguan GAW station, China - Part 2: The roles of anthropogenic emissions and climate variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Wanyun; Xu, Xiaobin; Lin, Meiyun; Lin, Weili; Tarasick, David; Tang, Jie; Ma, Jianzhong; Zheng, Xiangdong

2018-01-01

Inter-annual variability and long-term trends in tropospheric ozone are both environmental and climate concerns. Ozone measured at Mt Waliguan Observatory (WLG, 3816 m a.s.l.) on the Tibetan Plateau over the period of 1994-2013 has increased significantly by 0.2-0.3 ppbv yr-1 during spring and autumn but shows a much smaller trend in winter and no significant trend in summer. Here we explore the factors driving the observed ozone changes at WLG using backward trajectory analysis, chemistry-climate model hindcast simulations (GFDL AM3), a trajectory-mapped ozonesonde data set, and several climate indices. A stratospheric ozone tracer implemented in GFDL AM3 indicates that stratosphere-to-troposphere transport (STT) can explain ˜ 60 % of the simulated springtime ozone increase at WLG, consistent with an increase in the NW air-mass frequency inferred from the trajectory analysis. Enhanced STT associated with the strengthening of the mid-latitude jet stream contributes to the observed high ozone anomalies at WLG during the springs of 1999 and 2012. During autumn, observations at WLG are more heavily influenced by polluted air masses originating from South East Asia than in the other seasons. Rising Asian anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors are the key driver of increasing autumnal ozone observed at WLG, as supported by the GFDL AM3 model with time-varying emissions, which captures the observed ozone increase (0.26 ± 0.11 ppbv yr-1). AM3 simulates a greater ozone increase of 0.38 ± 0.11 ppbv yr-1 at WLG in autumn under conditions with strong transport from South East Asia and shows no significant ozone trend in autumn when anthropogenic emissions are held constant in time. During summer, WLG is mostly influenced by easterly air masses, but these trajectories do not extend to the polluted regions of eastern China and have decreased significantly over the last 2 decades, which likely explains why summertime ozone measured at WLG shows no significant trend

Long - term trends of tropospheric ozone in the Czech Republic 1992-2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vana, M.

2017-12-01

The regular measurement of tropospheric ozone in the Czech Republic began within the National Air Pollution Monitoring Network operated by the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute in 1992. The long-term trend assessment study is based on the data from the stations with the longest homogeneous data series: Košetice and Svratouch (EMEP stations), Praha-Libuš (suburban area of the capital Prague) and Churáňov (mountain site). Non-parametric Mann-Kendall method was used for trend evaluation. Significant downward trend was found both at EMEP stations and mountain station during the whole period, after 2000 the significance was lower. Warm period (April-September) displays similar patterns as whole year at regional and mountain level. On contrary, only slightly declining tendency was found in the cold period (October-March). Suburban station is characterized by not significant increasing tendency. The difference between mean annual concentrations at regional and suburban stations dropped from 20 mg.m-3 in the 90´ to 12 mg.m-3 in last five years. The annual variation is characterized by maxima in the end of spring. In June and sometimes also in July there is a decrease caused by the onset of the so-called "continental monsoon", which brings increased cloud cover and a drop in solar radiation. We then register a second maximum in July and August. According to the current Czech air quality legislation, the target value for protection of human health is exceeded when 8-hour running mean is higher than 120 mg.m-3 25times in average for 3 years. The limit was exceeded at all stations during the period 1992-2010, but at the same time, significant drop of high ozone episodes was found during this period. After 2010 the declining trend was stopped and 3-year mean declined under the target limit at all station types. Assessment of the ozone impacts on ecosystems using the AOT40 index suggests that critical level was exceeded for long periods not only in the regional areas but

Seasonal, interannual and long-term variabilities and tendencies of water vapour in the upper stratosphere and mesospheric region over tropics (30°N-30°S)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nath, Oindrila; Sridharan, S.; Naidu, C. V.

2018-01-01

Tropical water vapour volume mixing ratio (WVMR) data for October 2004-September 2015 obtained from the Microwave Limb Sounder are used to study its long-term variabilities and tendencies in the height region 12.1-0.002 hPa. Above 0.01 hPa, the WVMR shows minimum March-May and September-November (∼0.7-0.8 ppmv) and maximum during June-August. It shows a large interannual variability at 31-64 km. The results from multivariate regression analysis show an increasing trend with maximum value of ∼0.045 ppmv/yr at 1.21-0.41 hPa. It shows a significant negative solar cycle response at mesospheric heights.

An exotic long-term pattern in stock price dynamics.

PubMed

Wei, Jianrong; Huang, Jiping

2012-01-01

To accurately predict the movement of stock prices is always of both academic importance and practical value. So far, a lot of research has been reported to help understand the behavior of stock prices. However, some of the existing theories tend to render us the belief that the time series of stock prices are unpredictable on a long-term timescale. The question arises whether the long-term predictability exists in stock price dynamics. In this work, we analyze the price reversals in the US stock market and the Chinese stock market on the basis of a renormalization method. The price reversals are divided into two types: retracements (the downward trends after upward trends) and rebounds (the upward trends after downward trends), of which the intensities are described by dimensionless quantities, R(t) and R(b), respectively. We reveal that for both mature and emerging markets, the distribution of either retracements R(t) or rebounds R(b) shows two characteristic values, 0.335 and 0.665, both of which are robust over the long term. The methodology presented here provides a way to quantify the stock price reversals. Our findings strongly support the existence of the long-term predictability in stock price dynamics, and may offer a hint on how to predict the long-term movement of stock prices.

A Global Assessment of Long-Term Greening and Browning Trends in Pasture Lands Using the GIMMS LAI3g Dataset

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cook, Benjamin I.; Pau, Stephanie

2013-01-01

Pasture ecosystems may be particularly vulnerable to land degradation due to the high risk of human disturbance (e.g., overgrazing, burning, etc.), especially when compared with natural ecosystems (non-pasture, non-cultivated) where direct human impacts are minimal. Using maximum annual leaf area index (LAImax) as a proxy for standing biomass and peak annual aboveground productivity, we analyze greening and browning trends in pasture areas from 1982-2008. Inter-annual variability in pasture productivity is strongly controlled by precipitation (positive correlation) and, to a lesser extent, temperature (negative correlation). Linear temporal trends are significant in 23% of pasture cells, with the vast majority of these areas showing positive LAImax trends. Spatially extensive productivity declines are only found in a few regions, most notably central Asia, southwest North America, and southeast Australia. Statistically removing the influence of precipitation reduces LAImax trends by only 13%, suggesting that precipitation trends are only a minor contributor to long-term greening and browning of pasture lands. No significant global relationship was found between LAImax and pasture intensity, although the magnitude of trends did vary between cells classified as natural versus pasture. In the tropics and Southern Hemisphere, the median rate of greening in pasture cells is significantly higher than for cells dominated by natural vegetation. In the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropics, conversely, greening of natural areas is 2-4 times the magnitude of greening in pasture areas. This analysis presents one of the first global assessments of greening and browning trends in global pasture lands, including a comparison with vegetation trends in regions dominated by natural ecosystems. Our results suggest that degradation of pasture lands is not a globally widespread phenomenon and, consistent with much of the terrestrial biosphere, there have been widespread increases in

Long-term and within-day variability of working memory performance and EEG in individuals.

PubMed

Gevins, Alan; McEvoy, Linda K; Smith, Michael E; Chan, Cynthia S; Sam-Vargas, Lita; Baum, Cliff; Ilan, Aaron B

2012-07-01

Assess individual-subject long-term and within-day variability of a combined behavioral and EEG test of working memory. EEGs were recorded from 16 adults performing n-back working memory tasks, with 10 tested in morning and afternoon sessions over several years. Participants were also tested after ingesting non-prescription medications or recreational substances. Performance and EEG measures were analyzed to derive an Overall score and three constituent sub-scores characterizing changes in performance, cortical activation, and alertness from each individual's baseline. Long-term and within-day variability were determined for each score; medication effects were assessed by reference to each individual's normal day-to-day variability. Over the several year period, the mean Overall score and sub-scores were approximately zero with standard deviations less than one. Overall scores were lower and their variability higher in afternoon relative to morning sessions. At the group level, alcohol, diphenhydramine and marijuana produced significant effects, but there were large individual differences. Objective working memory measures incorporating performance and EEG are stable over time and sensitive at the level of individual subjects to interventions that affect neurocognitive function. With further research these measures may be suitable for use in individualized medical care by providing a sensitive assessment of incipient illness and response to treatment. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

Long-term trends and spatial patterns of PM2.5-induced premature mortality in South and Southeast Asia from 1999 to 2014.

PubMed

Shi, Yusheng; Matsunaga, Tsuneo; Yamaguchi, Yasushi; Zhao, Aimei; Li, Zhengqiang; Gu, Xingfa

2018-08-01

Fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) poses a potential threat to human health, including premature mortality under long-term exposure. Based on a long-term series of high-resolution (0.01°×0.01°) satellite-retrieved PM 2.5 concentrations, this study estimated the premature mortality attributable to PM 2.5 in South and Southeast Asia (SSEA) from 1999 to 2014. Then, the long-term trends and spatial characteristics of PM 2.5 -induced premature deaths (1999-2014) were analyzed using trend analyses and standard deviation ellipses. Results showed the estimated number of PM 2.5 -induced average annual premature deaths in SSEA was 1,447,000. The numbers increased from 1,179,400 in 1999 to 1,724,900 in 2014, with a growth rate of 38% and net increase of 545,500. Stroke and ischemic heart disease were the two principal contributors, accounting for 39% and 35% of the total, respectively. High values were concentrated in North India, Bangladesh, East Pakistan, and some metropolitan areas of Southeast Asia. An estimated 991,600 deaths in India was quantified (i.e., ~69% of the total premature deaths in SSEA). The long-term trends (1999-2014) of PM 2.5 -related premature mortality exhibited consistent incremental tendencies in all countries except Sri Lanka. The findings of this study suggest that strict controls of PM 2.5 concentrations in SSEA are urgently required. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Influence of long-term trends of flooding on habitat conditions in lowland riparian wetlands under low antropopression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mirosław-Świątek, Dorota; Grygoruk, Mateusz

2016-04-01

Temporal, volumetric and areal trends of flooding remain dominant factors shaping habitat conditions of riparian wetlands. In contemporary Europe, where the pristine extent of riparian wetlands strongly decreased due to antropopression and the flow regime of majority of rivers was decently modified in agricultural and hydropower purposes, valuable riparian habitats that remained in good ecological state require appropriate maintenance of floods. Even though multiple environmental regulations were implemented worldwide in order to mitigate negative effects of antropopression to flow regime and habitats, it is the climatic change that challenges riparian ecosystem management to the extent comparable (if not higher) than the direct human interventions. Wishing to detect probable influence of the ongoing climatic change on the flood regime one should search for catchment systems of a low antropopression, where the long term variability of flood extents, flood depths and recurrence intervals are likely to reflect climatic changes rather than human activity. In our study we analysed 60-years long time series of the discharge data of Biebrza river (NE Poland) that was found in numerous studies a reference in a temperate-continental European riparian and mire ecosystem research. Daily data of river discharge was used as boundary conditions in the WETFLOD - a developed integrated river-floodplain-groundwater flow model applied to the environment of Lower Biebrza Basin. The model was used to simulate and analyze trends of changes in flood extent and water depths in selected, well preserved vegetation patches namely the Caricetum appropinquatae, Caricetum gracilis, Phragmitetum communis and Glycerietum maximae. Temporal trends were analysed on the basis of distribution deciles of flood extents, depths and recurrence intervals. Study revealed that flood extents and flood depths in the first decade of the 21st century were decently different from the ones modeled for the second

Assessment of long-term monthly and seasonal trends of warm (cold), wet (dry) spells in Kansas, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dokoohaki, H.; Anandhi, A.

2013-12-01

A few recent studies have focused on trends in rainfall, temperature, and frost indicators at different temporal scales using centennial weather station data in Kansas; our study supplements this work by assessing the changes in spell indicators in Kansas. These indicators provide the duration between temperature-based (warm and cold) and precipitation-based (wet and dry) spells. For wet (dry) spell calculations, a wet day is defined as a day with precipitation ≥1 mm, and a dry day is defined as one with precipitation ≤1 mm. For warm (cold) spell calculations, a warm day is defined as a day with maximum temperature >90th percentile of daily maximum temperature, and a cold day is defined as a day with minimum temperature <10th percentile of daily minimum temperature. The percentiles are calculated for 1971-2000, and four spell indicators are calculated: Average Wet Spell Length (AWSL), Dry Spell Length (ADSL), Average Warm Spell Days (AWSD) and Average Cold Spell Days (ACSD) are calculated. Data were provided from 23 centennial weather stations across Kansas, and all calculations were done for four time periods (through 1919, 1920-1949, 1950-1979, and 1980-2009). The definitions and software provided by Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) were adapted for application to Kansas. The long- and short-term trends in these indices were analyzed at monthly and seasonal timescales. Monthly results indicate that ADSL is decreasing and AWSL is increasing throughout the state. AWSD and ACSD both showed an overall decreasing trend, but AWSD trends were variable during the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. Results of seasonal analysis revealed that the fall season recorded the greatest increasing trend for ACSD and the greatest decreasing trend for AWSD across the whole state and during all time periods. Similarly, the greatest increasing and decreasing trends occurred in winter for AWSL and ADSL, respectively. These variations can be

Data for Figures and Tables in Journal Article Assessment of the Effects of Horizontal Grid Resolution on Long-Term Air Quality Trends using Coupled WRF-CMAQ Simulations, doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2016.02.036

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The dataset represents the data depicted in the Figures and Tables of a Journal Manuscript with the following abstract: The objective of this study is to determine the adequacy of using a relatively coarse horizontal resolution (i.e. 36 km) to simulate long-term trends of pollutant concentrations and radiation variables with the coupled WRF-CMAQ model. WRF-CMAQ simulations over the continental United State are performed over the 2001 to 2010 time period at two different horizontal resolutions of 12 and 36 km. Both simulations used the same emission inventory and model configurations. Model results are compared both in space and time to assess the potential weaknesses and strengths of using coarse resolution in long-term air quality applications. The results show that the 36 km and 12 km simulations are comparable in terms of trends analysis for both pollutant concentrations and radiation variables. The advantage of using the coarser 36 km resolution is a significant reduction of computational cost, time and storage requirement which are key considerations when performing multiple years of simulations for trend analysis. However, if such simulations are to be used for local air quality analysis, finer horizontal resolution may be beneficial since it can provide information on local gradients. In particular, divergences between the two simulations are noticeable in urban, complex terrain and coastal regions.This dataset is associated with the following publication

Long-term variabilities of meridional geostrophic volumn transport in North Pacific Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, H.; Yuan, D.; Dewar, W. K.

2016-02-01

The meridional geostrophic volumn transport (MGVT) by the ocean plays a very important role in the climatic water mass and heat balance because of its large heat capacity which enables the oceans to store the large amount of radiation received in the summer and to release it in winter. Better understanding of the role of the oceans in climate variability is essential to assess the likely range of future climate fluctuations. In the last century the North Pacific Ocean experienced considerable climate variability, especially on decadal time scale. Some studies have shown that the North Pacific Ocean is the origin of North Pacific multidecadal variability (Latif and Barnett, 1994; Barnett et al., 1999). These fluctuations were associated with large anomalies in sea level, temperature, storminess and rainfall, the heat transport and other extremes are changing as well. If the MGVT of the ocean is well-determined, it can be used as a test of the validity of numerical, global climate models. In this paper, we investigate the long-term variability of the MGVT in North Pacific ocean based on 55 years long global ocean heat and salt content data (Levitus et al., 2012). Very clear inter-decadal variations can be seen in tropical , subtropical and subpolar regions of North Pacific Ocean. There are very consistent variations between the MGVT anomalies and the inter-decadal pacific oscillation (IPO) index in the tropical gyre with cold phase of IPO corresponding to negative MGVT anomalies and warm phase corresponding to positive MGVT anomalies. The subtropical gyre shows more complex variations, and the subpolar gyre shows a negative MGVT anomaly before late 1970's and a positive anomaly after that time. The geostrophic velocities of North Pacific Ocean show significantly different anomalies during the two IPO cold phases of 1955-1976 and 1999 to present, which suggests a different mechanism of the two cold phases. The long term variations of Sverdrup transport compares well

Black Carbon and Sulfate Aerosols in the Arctic: Long-term Trends, Radiative Impacts, and Source Attributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, H.; Zhang, R.; Yang, Y.; Smith, S.; Rasch, P. J.

2017-12-01

The Arctic has warmed dramatically in recent decades. As one of the important short-lived climate forcers, aerosols affect the Arctic radiative budget directly by interfering radiation and indirectly by modifying clouds. Light-absorbing particles (e.g., black carbon) in snow/ice can reduce the surface albedo. The direct radiative impact of aerosols on the Arctic climate can be either warming or cooling, depending on their composition and location, which can further alter the poleward heat transport. Anthropogenic emissions, especially, BC and SO2, have changed drastically in low/mid-latitude source regions in the past few decades. Arctic surface observations at some locations show that BC and sulfate aerosols had a decreasing trend in the recent decades. In order to understand the impact of long-term emission changes on aerosols and their radiative effects, we use the Community Earth System Model (CESM) equipped with an explicit BC and sulfur source-tagging technique to quantify the source-receptor relationships and decadal trends of Arctic sulfate and BC and to identify variations in their atmospheric transport pathways from lower latitudes. The simulation was conducted for 36 years (1979-2014) with prescribed sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations. To minimize potential biases in modeled large-scale circulations, wind fields in the simulation are nudged toward an atmospheric reanalysis dataset, while atmospheric constituents including water vapor, clouds, and aerosols are allowed to evolve according to the model physics. Both anthropogenic and open fire emissions came from the newly released CMIP6 datasets, which show strong regional trends in BC and SO2 emissions during the simulation time period. Results show that emissions from East Asia and South Asia together have the largest contributions to Arctic sulfate and BC concentrations in the upper troposphere, which have an increasing trend. The strong decrease in emissions from Europe, Russia and

Providing long-term trend and gravimetric factor at Chandler period from superconducting gravimeter records by using Singular Spectrum Analysis along with its multivariate extension

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gruszczynska, M.; Rosat, S.; Klos, A.; Bogusz, J.

2017-12-01

In this study, Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) along with its multivariate extension MSSA (Multichannel SSA) were used to estimate long-term trend and gravimetric factor at the Chandler wobble frequency from superconducting gravimeter (SG) records. We have used data from seven stations located worldwide and contributing to the International Geodynamics and Earth Tides Service (IGETS). The timespan ranged from 15 to 19 years. Before applying SSA and MSSA, we had removed local tides, atmospheric (ECMWF data), hydrological (MERRA2 products) loadings and non-tidal ocean loading (ECCO2 products) effects. In the first part of analysis, we used the SSA approach in order to estimate the long-term trends from SG observations. We use the technique based on the classical Karhunen-Loève spectral decomposition of time series into long-term trend, oscillations and noise. In the second part, we present the determination of common time-varying pole tide (annual and Chandler wobble) to estimate gravimetric factor from SG time series using the MSSA approach. The presented method takes advantage over traditional methods like Least Squares Estimation by determining common modes of variability which reflect common geophysical field. We adopted a 6-year lag-window as the optimal length to extract common seasonal signals and the Chandler components of the Earth polar motion. The signals characterized by annual and Chandler wobble account for approximately 62% of the total variance of residual SG data. Then, we estimated the amplitude factors and phase lags of Chandler wobble with respect to the IERS (International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service) polar motion observations. The resulting gravimetric factors at the Chandler Wobble period are finally compared with previously estimates. A robust estimate of the gravimetric Earth response to the Chandlerian component of the polar motion is required to better constrain the mantle anelasticity at this frequency and hence the

Long-term metapopulation study of the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia): survey methods, data management, and long-term population trends.

PubMed

Ojanen, Sami P; Nieminen, Marko; Meyke, Evgeniy; Pöyry, Juha; Hanski, Ilkka

2013-10-01

Long-term observational studies conducted at large (regional) spatial scales contribute to better understanding of landscape effects on population and evolutionary dynamics, including the conditions that affect long-term viability of species, but large-scale studies are expensive and logistically challenging to keep running for a long time. Here, we describe the long-term metapopulation study of the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) that has been conducted since 1991 in a large network of 4000 habitat patches (dry meadows) within a study area of 50 by 70 km in the Åland Islands in Finland. We explain how the landscape structure has been described, including definition, delimitation, and mapping of the habitat patches; methods of field survey, including the logistics, cost, and reliability of the survey; and data management using the EarthCape biodiversity platform. We describe the long-term metapopulation dynamics of the Glanville fritillary based on the survey. There has been no long-term change in the overall size of the metapopulation, but the level of spatial synchrony and hence the amplitude of fluctuations in year-to-year metapopulation dynamics have increased over the years, possibly due to increasing frequency of exceptional weather conditions. We discuss the added value of large-scale and long-term population studies, but also emphasize the need to integrate more targeted experimental studies in the context of long-term observational studies. For instance, in the case of the Glanville fritillary project, the long-term study has produced an opportunity to sample individuals for experiments from local populations with a known demographic history. These studies have demonstrated striking differences in dispersal rate and other life-history traits of individuals from newly established local populations (the offspring of colonizers) versus individuals from old, established local populations. The long-term observational study has stimulated the

Long-term metapopulation study of the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia): survey methods, data management, and long-term population trends

PubMed Central

Ojanen, Sami P; Nieminen, Marko; Meyke, Evgeniy; Pöyry, Juha; Hanski, Ilkka

2013-01-01

Long-term observational studies conducted at large (regional) spatial scales contribute to better understanding of landscape effects on population and evolutionary dynamics, including the conditions that affect long-term viability of species, but large-scale studies are expensive and logistically challenging to keep running for a long time. Here, we describe the long-term metapopulation study of the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) that has been conducted since 1991 in a large network of 4000 habitat patches (dry meadows) within a study area of 50 by 70 km in the Åland Islands in Finland. We explain how the landscape structure has been described, including definition, delimitation, and mapping of the habitat patches; methods of field survey, including the logistics, cost, and reliability of the survey; and data management using the EarthCape biodiversity platform. We describe the long-term metapopulation dynamics of the Glanville fritillary based on the survey. There has been no long-term change in the overall size of the metapopulation, but the level of spatial synchrony and hence the amplitude of fluctuations in year-to-year metapopulation dynamics have increased over the years, possibly due to increasing frequency of exceptional weather conditions. We discuss the added value of large-scale and long-term population studies, but also emphasize the need to integrate more targeted experimental studies in the context of long-term observational studies. For instance, in the case of the Glanville fritillary project, the long-term study has produced an opportunity to sample individuals for experiments from local populations with a known demographic history. These studies have demonstrated striking differences in dispersal rate and other life-history traits of individuals from newly established local populations (the offspring of colonizers) versus individuals from old, established local populations. The long-term observational study has stimulated the

The long-term physical and psychological health impacts of flooding: A systematic mapping.

PubMed

Zhong, Shuang; Yang, Lianping; Toloo, Sam; Wang, Zhe; Tong, Shilu; Sun, Xiaojie; Crompton, David; FitzGerald, Gerard; Huang, Cunrui

2018-06-01

Flooding has caused significant and wide ranging long-term health impacts for affected populations. However, until now, the long-term health outcomes, epidemiological trends and specific impact factors of flooding had not been identified. In this study, the relevant literature was systematically mapped to create the first synthesis of the evidence of the long-term health impacts of flooding. The systematic mapping method was used to collect and categorize all the relevant literature. A study was included if it had a description or measurement of health impacts over six months after flooding. The search was limited to peer reviewed articles and grey literature written in English, published from 1996 to 2016. A total of 56 critical articles were extracted for the final map, including 5 qualitative and 51 quantitative studies. Most long-term studies investigated the psychological impacts of flooding, including PTSD, depression, anxiety, psychiatric disorders, sleep disorder and suicide. Others investigated the physiological impacts, including health-related quality of life, acute myocardial infarction, chronic diseases, and malnutrition. Social support was proved to be protective factors that can improve health outcomes in the long-term after flooding. To date, there have been relatively few reviews had focused on the long-term health impacts of flooding. This study coded and catalogued the existing evidence across a wide range of variables and described the long-term health consequences within a conceptual map. Although there was no boundary between the short-term and the long-term impacts of flooding, the identified health outcomes in this systematic mapping could be used to define long-term health impacts. The studies showed that the prevalence of psychological diseases had a reversed increasing trend occurred even in the long-term in relatively poor post-flooding environments. Further cohort or longitudinal research focused on disability, chronic diseases

Using long-term lysimeter data to analyze hydrological trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Puetz, Thomas; Hendricks-Franssen, Harrie-Jan; Roesseler, Anne-Kathrin; Vereecken, Harry

2014-05-01

Evapotranspiration (ET) is a major component of the terrestrial water cycle. Recent studies based on analysis of experimental and observations-based data have shown that over the last decades the magnitude of evapotranspiration (both potential and actual) has been affected by global climate change although the sign and size of the change in ET differ strongly between regions around the globe, as well as between datasets (e.g. Teuling et al. 2009, Jung et al. 2010, Sheffield et al. 2012). Basically, there are two approaches that are available to measure actual evapotranspiration in situ (e.g. Seneviratne et al. 2010): the measurement from micrometeorological approaches (in particular the Eddy Covariance method) and the determination of evapotranspiration by measuring the components of the soil water balance. Evett et al. (2012) showed that Eddy Covariance measurements of actual evapotranspiration obtained in irrigated cotton fields was 31 to 45% lower than estimates obtained from soil water balance measurements using lysimeters. Forcing the closure of the energy balance with more data than typically available at EC stations, the difference was still about 17%. Despite the fact that lysimeter systems, especially the weighing based systems, are ideal tools to determine actual evapotranspiration no global assessment has been made of available data at present that might be valuable to assess the impact of climate change on actual evapotranspiration. A screening of literature showed that many data are either not reported or made available through research reports rather than peer reviewed literature. Typically lysimeter studies have been used for well-designed experimental studies for the assessment of flow and transport processes in cropped systems that were limited in time. Still at present, we have lysimeter systems operational that have long term time series available on soil hydrological fluxes. Recently, a few studies were reported that analyzed long term series of

SBUV/2 Long-Term Measurements of Solar Spectral Variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeLand, Matthew T.; Cebula, Richard P.

1997-01-01

The NOAA-11 SBUV/2 spectral solar data have been corrected for long-term instrument changes to produce a 5.5 year data record during solar cycle 22 (December 1988 - October 1994). Residual drifts in the data at long wavelengths are +/- 1% or less. At 200-205 nm, where solar variations drive stratospheric photochemistry, these data indicate long-term solar changes of 5-7% from the maximum of Cycle 22 in April 1991 through the end of the NOAA-11 data record. Comparisons of NOAA-11 data with UARS SUSIM and SOLSTICE for the period October 1991 - October 1994, when all 3 instruments were operating simultaneously, show that the observed long-term variations in 200-205 nm irradiance agree to within 2%. This result is consistent with predictions from the Mg-2 proxy index. The SBUV/2 instruments represent a valuable resource for long-term solar UV activity studies because of their overlapping data records. In addition to the NOAA-11 data presented here, the NOAA-9 SBUV/2 instrument began taking data in March 1985 and is still operating, providing a complete record of Cycle 22 behavior from a single instrument. Three additional SBUV/2 instruments are scheduled to be launched between 1997 and 2003, which should permit full coverage of solar cycle 23.

Trend and variability in western and central Africa streamflow, and major drivers of variability between 1950 and 2005

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dieppois, B.; Sidibe, M.; Mahe, G. M.; Paturel, J. E.; Anifowose, B. A.; Lawler, D.; Amoussou, E.

2017-12-01

Unprecedented drought episodes that struck western and central Africa between the late 1960s and 1980s, triggered many studies investigating rainfall variability and its impacts on water resources and food production systems. However, most studies were focused at the catchment scale. In this study, we aim at investigating the key large-scale controls determining and modulating climate-river flows relationships at the subcontinental scale between 1950 and 2005. Using the first complete monthly streamflow data set (1950-2005) over western and central Africa, streamflow trend and variability are seasonally assessed at this subcontinental scale and compared to those observed in other hydroclimatic variables (precipitation, temperature and potential evapotranspiration). Long-term trends and variability in streamflow are mainly consistent with trends in rainfall. In particular, the recent post-1990s partial recovery in Sahel rainfall could have, at least partially, positively impacted river flows (e.g. the Senegal and Niger rivers). However, these relationships may have been moderated by: i) changes in land use; and ii) contributions from groundwater resources. In addition, the time-evolution of river flows is shown to be primarily driven by very strong decadal fluctuations, which can be interpreted as modulations in the baseflow, as determined using multi-temporal trend and continuous wavelet analysis. These decadal fluctuations, which are also significantly detected in rainfall, are likely related to large-scale sea-surface temperature (SST) anomaly patterns (such as the tropical Atlantic SST variability, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation), which are together modulating the West African monsoon. Furthermore, influences of the catchment properties (e.g. size, vegetation and land use cover, soil properties, direction of stream flow across climate zones) on these decadal fluctuations in river

The paradox of cooling streams in a warming world: Regional climate trends do not parallel variable local trends in stream temperature in the Pacific continental United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Arismendi, Ivan; Johnson, Sherri; Dunham, Jason B.; Haggerty, Roy; Hockman-Wert, David

2012-01-01

Temperature is a fundamentally important driver of ecosystem processes in streams. Recent warming of terrestrial climates around the globe has motivated concern about consequent increases in stream temperature. More specifically, observed trends of increasing air temperature and declining stream flow are widely believed to result in corresponding increases in stream temperature. Here, we examined the evidence for this using long-term stream temperature data from minimally and highly human-impacted sites located across the Pacific continental United States. Based on hypothesized climate impacts, we predicted that we should find warming trends in the maximum, mean and minimum temperatures, as well as increasing variability over time. These predictions were not fully realized. Warming trends were most prevalent in a small subset of locations with longer time series beginning in the 1950s. More recent series of observations (1987-2009) exhibited fewer warming trends and more cooling trends in both minimally and highly human-influenced systems. Trends in variability were much less evident, regardless of the length of time series. Based on these findings, we conclude that our perspective of climate impacts on stream temperatures is clouded considerably by a lack of long-termdata on minimally impacted streams, and biased spatio-temporal representation of existing time series. Overall our results highlight the need to develop more mechanistic, process-based understanding of linkages between climate change, other human impacts and stream temperature, and to deploy sensor networks that will provide better information on trends in stream temperatures in the future.

Climate driven variability and detectability of temporal trends in low flow indicators for Ireland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hall, Julia; Murphy, Conor; Harrigan, Shaun

2013-04-01

Observational data from hydrological monitoring programs plays an important role in informing decision makers of changes in key hydrological variables. To analyse how changes in climate influence stream flow, undisturbed river basins with near-natural conditions limited from human influences are needed. This study analyses low flow indicators derived from observations from the Irish Reference Network. Within the trend analysis approach the influence of individual years or sub-periods on the detected trend are analysed using sequential trend tests on all possible periods (of at least 10 years in length) by varying the start and end dates of records for various indicators. Results from this study highlight that the current standard approach using fixed periods to determine long term trends is not appropriate as statistical significance and direction of trends from short term records do not persist continuously over entire record and can be heavily influenced by extremes within the record. The importance of longer records in contextualising short term trends derived from fixed-periods influenced by natural annual, inter-annual and multi-decadal variability is highlighted. Due to the low signal (trend) to noise (variability) ratio, the apparent trends derived from the low flow indicators cannot be used as confident guides to inform future water resources planning and decision making on climate change. Infact, some derived trends contradict expected climate change impacts and even small changes in study design can change the outcomes to a high degree. Therefore it is important not only to evaluate the magnitude of trends derived from monitoring data but also when a trend of a certain magnitude in a given indicator will be detectable to inform decision making or what changes might be required to detect trends for a certain significance level. In this study, the influence of observed variance in the monitoring records on the expected detection times for trends with a

Long-Term Time Variability in the X-Ray Pulse Shape of the Crab Nebula Pulsar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fazio, Giovanni G.

2000-01-01

This is the final performance report for our grant 'Long-Term Time Variability in the X-Ray Pulse Shape of the Crab Nebula Pulsar.' In the first year of this grant, we received the 50,000-second ROSAT (German acronym for X-ray satellite) High Resolution Images (HRI) observation of the Crab Nebula pulsar. We used the data to create a 65-ms-resolution pulse profile and compared it to a similar pulse profile obtained in 1991. No statistically significant differences were found. These results were presented at the January 1998 meeting of the American Astronomical Society. Since then, we have performed more sensitive analyses to search for potential changes in the pulse profile shape between the two data sets. Again, no significant variability was found. In order to augment this long (six-year) baseline data set, we have analyzed archival observations of the Crab Nebula pulsar with the Rossi X-Ray Timing Explorer (RXTE). While these observations have shorter time baselines than the ROSAT data set, their higher signal-to-noise offers similar sensitivity to long-term variability. Again, no significant variations have been found, confirming our ROSAT results. This work was done in collaboration with Prof. Stephen Eikenberry, Cornell University. These analyses will be included in Cornell University graduate student Dae-Sik Moon's doctoral thesis.

Local variability in long-term care services: local autonomy, exogenous influences and policy spillovers.

PubMed

Fernandez, José-Luis; Forder, Julien

2015-03-01

In many countries, public responsibility over the funding and provision of long-term care services is held at the local level. In such systems, long-term care provision is often characterised by significant local variability. Using a panel dataset of local authorities over the period 2002-2012, the paper investigates the underlying causes of variation in gross social care expenditure for older people in England. The analysis distinguishes between factors outside the direct control of policy makers, local preferences and local policy spillovers. The results indicate that local demand and supply factors, and to a much lesser extent local political preferences and spatial policy spillovers, explain a large majority of the observed variation in expenditure. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Long-term (2005-2014) trends in formaldehyde (HCHO) columns across North America as seen by the OMI satellite instrument: Evidence of changing emissions of volatile organic compounds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Lei; Mickley, Loretta J.; Jacob, Daniel J.; Marais, Eloïse A.; Sheng, Jianxiong; Hu, Lu; Abad, Gonzalo González; Chance, Kelly

2017-07-01

Satellite observations of formaldehyde (HCHO) columns provide top-down information on emissions of highly reactive volatile organic compounds (VOCs). We examine the long-term trends in HCHO columns observed by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument from 2005 to 2014 across North America. Biogenic isoprene is the dominant source of HCHO, and its emission has a large temperature dependence. After correcting for this dependence, we find a general pattern of increases in much of North America but decreases in the southeastern U.S. Over the Houston-Galveston-Brazoria industrial area, HCHO columns decreased by 2.2% a-1 from 2005 to 2014, consistent with trends in emissions of anthropogenic VOCs. Over the Cold Lake Oil Sands in the southern Alberta in Canada, HCHO columns increased by 3.8% a-1, consistent with the increase in crude oil production there. HCHO variability in the northwestern U.S. and Midwest could be related to afforestation and corn silage production. Although NOx levels can affect the HCHO yield from isoprene oxidation, we find that decreases in anthropogenic NOx emissions made only a small contribution to the observed HCHO trends.