GABAergic excitation of spider mechanoreceptors increases information capacity by increasing entropy rather than decreasing jitter.

PubMed

Pfeiffer, Keram; French, Andrew S

2009-09-02

Neurotransmitter chemicals excite or inhibit a range of sensory afferents and sensory pathways. These changes in firing rate or static sensitivity can also be associated with changes in dynamic sensitivity or membrane noise and thus action potential timing. We measured action potential firing produced by random mechanical stimulation of spider mechanoreceptor neurons during long-duration excitation by the GABAA agonist muscimol. Information capacity was estimated from signal-to-noise ratio by averaging responses to repeated identical stimulation sequences. Information capacity was also estimated from the coherence function between input and output signals. Entropy rate was estimated by a data compression algorithm and maximum entropy rate from the firing rate. Action potential timing variability, or jitter, was measured as normalized interspike interval distance. Muscimol increased firing rate, information capacity, and entropy rate, but jitter was unchanged. We compared these data with the effects of increasing firing rate by current injection. Our results indicate that the major increase in information capacity by neurotransmitter action arose from the increased entropy rate produced by increased firing rate, not from reduction in membrane noise and action potential jitter.

[Fire behavior of Mongolian oak leaves fuel-bed under no-wind and zero-slope conditions. I. Factors affecting fire spread rate and modeling].

PubMed

Jin, Sen; Liu, Bo-Fei; Di, Xue-Ying; Chu, Teng-Fei; Zhang, Ji-Li

2012-01-01

Aimed to understand the fire behavior of Mongolian oak leaves fuel-bed under field condition, the leaves of a secondary Mongolian oak forest in Northeast Forestry University experimental forest farm were collected and brought into laboratory to construct fuel-beds with varied loading, height, and moisture content, and a total of 100 experimental fires were burned under no-wind and zero-slope conditions. It was observed that the fire spread rate of the fuel-beds was less than 0.5 m x min(-1). Fuel-bed loading, height, and moisture contents all had significant effects on the fire spread rate. The effect of fuel-bed moisture content on the fire spread had no significant correlations with fuel-bed loading and height, but the effect of fuel-bed height was related to the fuel-bed loading. The packing ratio of fuel-beds had less effect on the fire spread rate. Taking the fuel-bed loading, height, and moisture content as predictive variables, a prediction model for the fire spread rate of Mongolian oak leaves fuel-bed was established, which could explain 83% of the variance of the fire spread rate, with a mean absolute error 0.04 m x min(-1) and a mean relative error less than 17%.

Variable synaptic strengths controls the firing rate distribution in feedforward neural networks.

PubMed

Ly, Cheng; Marsat, Gary

2018-02-01

Heterogeneity of firing rate statistics is known to have severe consequences on neural coding. Recent experimental recordings in weakly electric fish indicate that the distribution-width of superficial pyramidal cell firing rates (trial- and time-averaged) in the electrosensory lateral line lobe (ELL) depends on the stimulus, and also that network inputs can mediate changes in the firing rate distribution across the population. We previously developed theoretical methods to understand how two attributes (synaptic and intrinsic heterogeneity) interact and alter the firing rate distribution in a population of integrate-and-fire neurons with random recurrent coupling. Inspired by our experimental data, we extend these theoretical results to a delayed feedforward spiking network that qualitatively capture the changes of firing rate heterogeneity observed in in-vivo recordings. We demonstrate how heterogeneous neural attributes alter firing rate heterogeneity, accounting for the effect with various sensory stimuli. The model predicts how the strength of the effective network connectivity is related to intrinsic heterogeneity in such delayed feedforward networks: the strength of the feedforward input is positively correlated with excitability (threshold value for spiking) when firing rate heterogeneity is low and is negatively correlated with excitability with high firing rate heterogeneity. We also show how our theory can be used to predict effective neural architecture. We demonstrate that neural attributes do not interact in a simple manner but rather in a complex stimulus-dependent fashion to control neural heterogeneity and discuss how it can ultimately shape population codes.

Predicting fire spread in Arizona's oak chaparral

Treesearch

A. W. Lindenmuth; James R. Davis

1973-01-01

Five existing fire models, both experimental and theoretical, did not adequately predict rate-of-spread (ROS) when tested on single- and multiclump fires in oak chaparral in Arizona. A statistical model developed using essentially the same input variables but weighted differently accounted for 81 percent ofthe variation in ROS. A chemical coefficient that accounts for...

Simulating initial attack with two fire containment models

Treesearch

Romain M. Mees

1985-01-01

Given a variable rate of fireline construction and an elliptical fire growth model, two methods for estimating the required number of resources, time to containment, and the resulting fire area were compared. Five examples illustrate some of the computational differences between the simple and the complex methods. The equations for the two methods can be used and...

Predicting duff and woody fuel consumed by prescribed fire in the Northern Rocky Mountains

Treesearch

James K. Brown; Michael A. Marsden; Kevin C. Ryan; Elizabeth D. Reinhardt

1985-01-01

Relationships for predicting duff reduction, mineral soil exposure, and consumption of downed woody fuel were determined to assist in planning prescribed fires. Independent variables included lower and entire duff moisture contents, loadings of downed woody fuels, duff depth, National Fire-Danger Rating System 1,000-hour moisture content, and Canadian Duff Moisture...

Using remote sensing to monitor post-fire watershed recovery as a tool for management

Treesearch

Jess Clark; Marc Stamer; Kevin Cooper; Carolyn Napper; Terri Hogue; Alicia Kinoshita

2013-01-01

Post-fire watershed recovery is influenced by numerous variables but one of the most important factors is the rate of re-establishment of vegetative cover. Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) teams, along with other agencies (Natural Resource Conservation Service, state, counties, cities, etc.), prescribe temporary post-fire mitigation treatments based on expected...

The role of fire in the pan-tropical carbon budget

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Werf, G.; Randerson, J. T.; Giglio, L.; Baccini, A.; Morton, D. C.; DeFries, R. S.

2012-12-01

Fires are an important management tool in the tropics and subtropics, and are used in the deforestation process, to manage savanna areas, and burn agricultural waste. Satellite-derived datasets of precipitation, aboveground tree biomass, and burned area are now available with over a decade worth of data for precipitation and burned area. Here we used these datasets to assess fire carbon emissions, to better understand relations between interannual variability in precipitation rates and fire activity, and to test ecological hypotheses centered on the role of fire and climate in governing biomass loads in the tropics and subtropics. We show that while most fire carbon emissions are from savanna fires, fires in deforestation regions are crucial from a net carbon emissions perspective and for emissions of reduced trace gases. These tropical fires burning in the dry season increase the amplitude of the CO2 exchange seasonality, in contrast to fires in the boreal region. We then show the large interannual variability of fires and highlight the difference in response of fires to changes in precipitation rates between dry and wet regions. Finally, by studying relations between fire, climate, and biomass, we show that savanna areas that saw fires over the past decade had lower tree biomass than those that did not, but only in medium or high rainfall areas. In areas up to about a meter of rain annually, tree biomass increased monotonically whether there were fires or not. In higher rainfall areas, precipitation seasonality appeared to be a crucial factor in explaining potential biomass. These results show that a world without fires may change the savanna carbon landscape less dramatically than often thought.

Mechanisms of Firing Patterns in Fast-Spiking Cortical Interneurons

PubMed Central

Golomb, David; Donner, Karnit; Shacham, Liron; Shlosberg, Dan; Amitai, Yael; Hansel, David

2007-01-01

Cortical fast-spiking (FS) interneurons display highly variable electrophysiological properties. Their spike responses to step currents occur almost immediately following the step onset or after a substantial delay, during which subthreshold oscillations are frequently observed. Their firing patterns include high-frequency tonic firing and rhythmic or irregular bursting (stuttering). What is the origin of this variability? In the present paper, we hypothesize that it emerges naturally if one assumes a continuous distribution of properties in a small set of active channels. To test this hypothesis, we construct a minimal, single-compartment conductance-based model of FS cells that includes transient Na+, delayed-rectifier K+, and slowly inactivating d-type K+ conductances. The model is analyzed using nonlinear dynamical system theory. For small Na+ window current, the neuron exhibits high-frequency tonic firing. At current threshold, the spike response is almost instantaneous for small d-current conductance, g d, and it is delayed for larger g d. As g d further increases, the neuron stutters. Noise substantially reduces the delay duration and induces subthreshold oscillations. In contrast, when the Na+ window current is large, the neuron always fires tonically. Near threshold, the firing rates are low, and the delay to firing is only weakly sensitive to noise; subthreshold oscillations are not observed. We propose that the variability in the response of cortical FS neurons is a consequence of heterogeneities in their g d and in the strength of their Na+ window current. We predict the existence of two types of firing patterns in FS neurons, differing in the sensitivity of the delay duration to noise, in the minimal firing rate of the tonic discharge, and in the existence of subthreshold oscillations. We report experimental results from intracellular recordings supporting this prediction. PMID:17696606

Mechanisms of firing patterns in fast-spiking cortical interneurons.

PubMed

Golomb, David; Donner, Karnit; Shacham, Liron; Shlosberg, Dan; Amitai, Yael; Hansel, David

2007-08-01

Cortical fast-spiking (FS) interneurons display highly variable electrophysiological properties. Their spike responses to step currents occur almost immediately following the step onset or after a substantial delay, during which subthreshold oscillations are frequently observed. Their firing patterns include high-frequency tonic firing and rhythmic or irregular bursting (stuttering). What is the origin of this variability? In the present paper, we hypothesize that it emerges naturally if one assumes a continuous distribution of properties in a small set of active channels. To test this hypothesis, we construct a minimal, single-compartment conductance-based model of FS cells that includes transient Na(+), delayed-rectifier K(+), and slowly inactivating d-type K(+) conductances. The model is analyzed using nonlinear dynamical system theory. For small Na(+) window current, the neuron exhibits high-frequency tonic firing. At current threshold, the spike response is almost instantaneous for small d-current conductance, gd, and it is delayed for larger gd. As gd further increases, the neuron stutters. Noise substantially reduces the delay duration and induces subthreshold oscillations. In contrast, when the Na(+) window current is large, the neuron always fires tonically. Near threshold, the firing rates are low, and the delay to firing is only weakly sensitive to noise; subthreshold oscillations are not observed. We propose that the variability in the response of cortical FS neurons is a consequence of heterogeneities in their gd and in the strength of their Na(+) window current. We predict the existence of two types of firing patterns in FS neurons, differing in the sensitivity of the delay duration to noise, in the minimal firing rate of the tonic discharge, and in the existence of subthreshold oscillations. We report experimental results from intracellular recordings supporting this prediction.

Post-Fire Recovery of Eco-Hydrologic Behavior Given Historic and Projected Climate Variability in California Mediterranean Type Environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seaby, L. P.; Tague, C. L.; Hope, A. S.

2006-12-01

The Mediterranean type environments (MTEs) of California are characterized by a distinct wet and dry season and high variability in inter-annual climate. Water limitation in MTEs makes eco-hydrological processes highly sensitive to both climate variability and frequent fire disturbance. This research modeled post-fire eco- hydrologic behavior under historical and moderate and extreme scenarios of future climate in a semi-arid chaparral dominated southern California MTE. We used a physically-based, spatially-distributed, eco- hydrological model (RHESSys - Regional Hydro-Ecologic Simulation System), to capture linkages between water and vegetation response to the combined effects of fire and historic and future climate variability. We found post-fire eco-hydrologic behavior to be strongly influenced by the episodic nature of MTE climate, which intensifies under projected climate change. Higher rates of post-fire net primary productivity were found under moderate climate change, while more extreme climate change produced water stressed conditions which were less favorable for vegetation productivity. Precipitation variability in the historic record follows the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and these inter-annual climate characteristics intensify under climate change. Inter-annual variation in streamflow follows these precipitation patterns. Post-fire streamflow and carbon cycling trajectories are strongly dependent on climate characteristics during the first 5 years following fire, and historic intra-climate variability during this period tends to overwhelm longer term trends and variation that might be attributable to climate change. Results have implications for water resource availability, vegetation type conversion from shrubs to grassland, and changes in ecosystem structure and function.

Wildland-Urban Interface Fires and Socioeconomic Conditions: A Case Study of a Northwestern Patagonia City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Torres Curth, Monica; Biscayart, Carolina; Ghermandi, Luciana; Pfister, Gabriela

2012-04-01

In many regions of the world, fires are primarily of anthropogenic origin. In northwestern Patagonia, the number of fires is not correlated with meteorological variables, but is concentrated in urban areas. This study was conducted in the wildland-urban interface (WUI) area of San Carlos de Bariloche (Patagonia, Argentina), within the Nahuel Huapi National Park. WUI fires are particularly problematic because, besides people and goods, they represent a danger to protected areas. We studied the relationship between fire records and socioeconomic indicators within the WUI of San Carlos de Bariloche. We conducted a Multiple Correspondence Factorial Analysis and an Ascendant Hierarchical Classification of the city neighborhoods. The results show that the neighborhoods in Bariloche can be divided into three classes: High Socioeconomic Fire Risk neighborhoods, including neighborhoods with the highest fire rates, where people have low instruction level, high levels of unsatisfied basic needs and high unemployment levels; Low Socioeconomic Fire Risk neighborhoods, that groups neighborhoods which present the opposite characterization, and Moderate Socioeconomic Fire Risk neighborhoods, which are more heterogeneous. Once neighborhoods were classified, a Socioeconomic Fire Risk map was generated, supplementing the existing WUI Fire Danger map. Our results emphasize the relevance of socioeconomic variables to fire policies.

Inferring oscillatory modulation in neural spike trains

PubMed Central

Arai, Kensuke; Kass, Robert E.

2017-01-01

Oscillations are observed at various frequency bands in continuous-valued neural recordings like the electroencephalogram (EEG) and local field potential (LFP) in bulk brain matter, and analysis of spike-field coherence reveals that spiking of single neurons often occurs at certain phases of the global oscillation. Oscillatory modulation has been examined in relation to continuous-valued oscillatory signals, and independently from the spike train alone, but behavior or stimulus triggered firing-rate modulation, spiking sparseness, presence of slow modulation not locked to stimuli and irregular oscillations with large variability in oscillatory periods, present challenges to searching for temporal structures present in the spike train. In order to study oscillatory modulation in real data collected under a variety of experimental conditions, we describe a flexible point-process framework we call the Latent Oscillatory Spike Train (LOST) model to decompose the instantaneous firing rate in biologically and behaviorally relevant factors: spiking refractoriness, event-locked firing rate non-stationarity, and trial-to-trial variability accounted for by baseline offset and a stochastic oscillatory modulation. We also extend the LOST model to accommodate changes in the modulatory structure over the duration of the experiment, and thereby discover trial-to-trial variability in the spike-field coherence of a rat primary motor cortical neuron to the LFP theta rhythm. Because LOST incorporates a latent stochastic auto-regressive term, LOST is able to detect oscillations when the firing rate is low, the modulation is weak, and when the modulating oscillation has a broad spectral peak. PMID:28985231

Variations in soil detachment rates after wildfire as a function of soil depth, flow properties, and root properties

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moody, John A.; Nyman, Peter

2013-01-01

Wildfire affects hillslope erosion through increased surface runoff and increased sediment availability, both of which contribute to large post-fire erosion events. Relations between soil detachment rate, soil depth, flow and root properties, and fire impacts are poorly understood and not represented explicitly in commonly used post-fire erosion models. Detachment rates were measured on intact soil cores using a modified tilting flume. The cores were mounted flush with the flume-bed and a measurement was made on the surface of the core. The core was extruded upward, cut off, and another measurement was repeated at a different depth below the original surface of the core. Intact cores were collected from one site burned by the 2010 Fourmile Canyon (FMC) fire in Colorado and from one site burned by the 2010 Pozo fire in California. Each site contained contrasting vegetation and soil types. Additional soil samples were collected alongside the intact cores and were analyzed in the laboratory for soil properties (organic matter, bulk density, particle-size distribution) and for root properties (root density and root-length density). Particle-size distribution and root properties were different between sites, but sites were similar in terms of bulk density and organic matter. Soil detachment rates had similar relations with non-uniform shear stress and non-uniform unit stream power. Detachment rates within single sampling units displayed a relatively weak and inconsistent relation to flow variables. When averaged across all clusters, the detachment rate displayed a linear relation to shear stress, but variability in soil properties meant that the shear stress accounted for only a small proportion of the overall variability in detachment rates (R2 = 0.23; R2 is the coefficient of determination). Detachment rate was related to root-length density in some clusters (R2 values up to 0.91) and unrelated in others (R2 values 2 value improved and the range of exponents became narrower by applying a multivariate regression model where boundary shear stress and root-length density were included as explanatory variables. This suggests that an erodibility parameter which incorporates the effects of both flow and root properties on detachment could improve the representation of sediment availability after wildfire.

Method and apparatus for checking fire detectors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clawson, G. T. (Inventor)

1974-01-01

A fire detector checking method and device are disclosed for nondestructively verifying the operation of installed fire detectors of the type which operate on the principle of detecting the rate of temperature rise of the ambient air to sound an alarm and/or which sound an alarm when the temperature of the ambient air reaches a preset level. The fire alarm checker uses the principle of effecting a controlled simulated alarm condition to ascertain wheather or not the detector will respond. The checker comprises a hand-held instrument employing a controlled heat source, e.g., an electric lamp having a variable input, for heating at a controlled rate an enclosed mass of air in a first compartment, which air mass is then disposed about the fire detector to be checked. A second compartment of the device houses an electronic circuit to sense and adjust the temperature level and heating rate of the heat source.

Use of models to study forest fire behavior

Treesearch

Wallace L. Fons

1961-01-01

The U.S. Forest Service has started a laboratory study with the ultimate objective of determining model laws for fire behavior. The study includes an examination of the effect of such variables as species of wood, density of wood, moisture content, size of fuel particle, spacing, dimensions of fuel bed, wind, and slope on the rate of spread of fire and the partition of...

Triphasic behavioral response of motor units to submaximal fatiguing exercise.

PubMed

Dorfman, L J; Howard, J E; McGill, K C

1990-07-01

We have measured the firing rate and amplitude of 4551 motor unit action potentials (MUAPs) recorded with concentric needle electrodes from the brachial biceps muscles of 10 healthy young adults before, during, and after 45 minutes of intermittent isometric exercise at 20% of maximum voluntary contraction (MVC), using an automatic method for decomposition of electromyographic activity (ADEMG). During and after exercise, MUAPs derived from contractions of 30% MVC showed progressive increase in mean firing rate (P less than or equal to .01) and amplitude (P less than or equal to .05). The firing rate increase preceded the rise in mean amplitude, and was evident prior to the development of fatigue, defined as reduction of MVC. Analysis of individual potentials revealed that the increase in firing rate and in amplitude reflected different MUAP subpopulations. A short-term (less than 1 minute) reduction in MUAP firing rates (P less than or equal to .05) was also observed at the onset of each test contraction. These findings suggest that motor units exhibit a triphasic behavioral response to prolonged submaximal exercise: (1) short-term decline and stabilization of onset firing rates, followed by (2) gradual and progressive increase in firing rates and firing variability, and then by (3) recruitment of additional (larger) motor units. The (2) and (3) components presumably compensate for loss of force-generating capacity in the exercising muscle, and give rise jointly to the well-known increase in total surface EMG which accompanies muscle fatigue.

Fire control method and analytical model for large liquid hydrocarbon pool fires

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fenton, D. L.

1986-01-01

The dominate parameter governing the behavior of a liquid hydrocarbon (JP-5) pool fire is wind speed. The most effective method of controlling wind speed in the vicinity of a large circular (10 m dia.) pool fire is a set of concentric screens located outside the perimeter. Because detailed behavior of the pool fire structure within one pool fire diameter is unknown, an analytical model supported by careful experiments is under development. As a first step toward this development, a regional pool fire model was constructed for the no-wind condition consisting of three zones -- liquid fuel, combustion, and plume -- where the predicted variables are mass burning rate and characteristic temperatures of the combustion and plume zones. This zone pool fire model can be modified to incorporate plume bending by wind, radiation absorption by soot particles, and a different ambient air flow entrainment rate. Results from the zone model are given for a pool diameter of 1.3 m and are found to reproduce values in the literature.

The impact of state fire safe cigarette policies on fire fatalities, injuries, and incidents.

PubMed

Folz, David H; Shults, Chris

Cigarettes are a leading cause of civilian deaths in home fires. Over the last decade, state fire service leaders and allied interest groups succeeded in persuading state lawmakers to require manufacturers to sell only low-ignition strength or "fire safe" cigarettes as a strategy to reduce these fatalities and the injuries and losses that stem from them. This article examines whether the states' fire safe cigarette laws actually helped to save lives, prevent injuries, and reduce the incidence of home fires ignited by cigarettes left unattended by smokers. Controlling for the effects of key demographic, social, economic, and housing variables, this study finds that the states' fire-safe cigarette policies had significant impacts on reducing the rate of smoking-related civilian fire deaths and the incidence of fires started by tobacco products. The findings also suggest that the states' fire safe cigarette policies may have helped to reduce the rate of smoking-related fire injuries. The study shows that collective actions by leaders in the fire service across the states can result in meaningful policy change that protects lives and advances public safety even when a political consensus for action is absent at the national level.

46 CFR 63.20-1 - Specific control system requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... interlock must ensure low fire start when variable firing rates are used. (c) Water level controls and low water cutoff controls. Water level controls must be constructed and located to minimize the effects of vessel roll and pitch. Float chamber low water cutoff controls using stuffing boxes to transmit the...

46 CFR 63.20-1 - Specific control system requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... interlock must ensure low fire start when variable firing rates are used. (c) Water level controls and low water cutoff controls. Water level controls must be constructed and located to minimize the effects of vessel roll and pitch. Float chamber low water cutoff controls using stuffing boxes to transmit the...

46 CFR 63.20-1 - Specific control system requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... interlock must ensure low fire start when variable firing rates are used. (c) Water level controls and low water cutoff controls. Water level controls must be constructed and located to minimize the effects of vessel roll and pitch. Float chamber low water cutoff controls using stuffing boxes to transmit the...

Thermal analysis of wildfires and effects on global ecosystem cycling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ambrosia, Vincent G.; Brass, James A.

1988-01-01

Biomass combustion plays an important role in the earth's biogeochemical cycling. The monitoring of wildfires and their associated variables at global scales is feasible and can lead to predictions of the influence of combustion on biogeochemical cycling and tropospheric chemistry. Remote sensing data collected during the 1985 California wildfire season indicate that the information content of key thermal and infrared/thermal wave band channels centered at 11.5 microns, 3.8 microns, and 2.25 microns are invaluable for discriminating and calculating fire related variables. These variables include fire intensity, rate-of-spread, soil cooling recovery behind the fire front, and plume structure. Coinciding Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) data provided information regarding temperature estimations and the movement of the smoke plume from one wildfire into the Los Angeles basin.

Analytical approximations of the firing rate of an adaptive exponential integrate-and-fire neuron in the presence of synaptic noise.

PubMed

Hertäg, Loreen; Durstewitz, Daniel; Brunel, Nicolas

2014-01-01

Computational models offer a unique tool for understanding the network-dynamical mechanisms which mediate between physiological and biophysical properties, and behavioral function. A traditional challenge in computational neuroscience is, however, that simple neuronal models which can be studied analytically fail to reproduce the diversity of electrophysiological behaviors seen in real neurons, while detailed neuronal models which do reproduce such diversity are intractable analytically and computationally expensive. A number of intermediate models have been proposed whose aim is to capture the diversity of firing behaviors and spike times of real neurons while entailing the simplest possible mathematical description. One such model is the exponential integrate-and-fire neuron with spike rate adaptation (aEIF) which consists of two differential equations for the membrane potential (V) and an adaptation current (w). Despite its simplicity, it can reproduce a wide variety of physiologically observed spiking patterns, can be fit to physiological recordings quantitatively, and, once done so, is able to predict spike times on traces not used for model fitting. Here we compute the steady-state firing rate of aEIF in the presence of Gaussian synaptic noise, using two approaches. The first approach is based on the 2-dimensional Fokker-Planck equation that describes the (V,w)-probability distribution, which is solved using an expansion in the ratio between the time constants of the two variables. The second is based on the firing rate of the EIF model, which is averaged over the distribution of the w variable. These analytically derived closed-form expressions were tested on simulations from a large variety of model cells quantitatively fitted to in vitro electrophysiological recordings from pyramidal cells and interneurons. Theoretical predictions closely agreed with the firing rate of the simulated cells fed with in-vivo-like synaptic noise.

Restoring and managing low-severity fire in dry-forest landscapes of the western USA.

PubMed

Baker, William L

2017-01-01

Low-severity fires that killed few canopy trees played a significant historical role in dry forests of the western USA and warrant restoration and management, but historical rates of burning remain uncertain. Past reconstructions focused on on dating fire years, not measuring historical rates of burning. Past statistics, including mean composite fire interval (mean CFI) and individual-tree fire interval (mean ITFI) have biases and inaccuracies if used as estimators of rates. In this study, I used regression, with a calibration dataset of 96 cases, to test whether these statistics could accurately predict two equivalent historical rates, population mean fire interval (PMFI) and fire rotation (FR). The best model, using Weibull mean ITFI, had low prediction error and R2adj = 0.972. I used this model to predict historical PMFI/FR at 252 sites spanning dry forests. Historical PMFI/FR for a pool of 342 calibration and predicted sites had a mean of 39 years and median of 30 years. Short (< 25 years) mean PMFI/FRs were in Arizona and New Mexico and scattered in other states. Long (> 55 years) mean PMFI/FRs were mainly from northern New Mexico to South Dakota. Mountain sites often had a large range in PMFI/FR. Nearly all 342 estimates are for old forests with a history of primarily low-severity fire, found across only about 34% of historical dry-forest area. Frequent fire (PMFI/FR < 25 years) was found across only about 14% of historical dry-forest area, with 86% having multidecadal rates of low-severity fire. Historical fuels (e.g., understory shrubs and small trees) could fully recover between multidecadal fires, allowing some denser forests and some ecosystem processes and wildlife habitat to be less limited by fire. Lower historical rates mean less restoration treatment is needed before beginning managed fire for resource benefits, where feasible. Mimicking patterns of variability in historical low-severity fire regimes would likely benefit biological diversity and ecosystem functioning.

Restoring and managing low-severity fire in dry-forest landscapes of the western USA

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Low-severity fires that killed few canopy trees played a significant historical role in dry forests of the western USA and warrant restoration and management, but historical rates of burning remain uncertain. Past reconstructions focused on on dating fire years, not measuring historical rates of burning. Past statistics, including mean composite fire interval (mean CFI) and individual-tree fire interval (mean ITFI) have biases and inaccuracies if used as estimators of rates. In this study, I used regression, with a calibration dataset of 96 cases, to test whether these statistics could accurately predict two equivalent historical rates, population mean fire interval (PMFI) and fire rotation (FR). The best model, using Weibull mean ITFI, had low prediction error and R2adj = 0.972. I used this model to predict historical PMFI/FR at 252 sites spanning dry forests. Historical PMFI/FR for a pool of 342 calibration and predicted sites had a mean of 39 years and median of 30 years. Short (< 25 years) mean PMFI/FRs were in Arizona and New Mexico and scattered in other states. Long (> 55 years) mean PMFI/FRs were mainly from northern New Mexico to South Dakota. Mountain sites often had a large range in PMFI/FR. Nearly all 342 estimates are for old forests with a history of primarily low-severity fire, found across only about 34% of historical dry-forest area. Frequent fire (PMFI/FR < 25 years) was found across only about 14% of historical dry-forest area, with 86% having multidecadal rates of low-severity fire. Historical fuels (e.g., understory shrubs and small trees) could fully recover between multidecadal fires, allowing some denser forests and some ecosystem processes and wildlife habitat to be less limited by fire. Lower historical rates mean less restoration treatment is needed before beginning managed fire for resource benefits, where feasible. Mimicking patterns of variability in historical low-severity fire regimes would likely benefit biological diversity and ecosystem functioning. PMID:28199416

Model of large pool fires.

PubMed

Fay, J A

2006-08-21

A two zone entrainment model of pool fires is proposed to depict the fluid flow and flame properties of the fire. Consisting of combustion and plume zones, it provides a consistent scheme for developing non-dimensional scaling parameters for correlating and extrapolating pool fire visible flame length, flame tilt, surface emissive power, and fuel evaporation rate. The model is extended to include grey gas thermal radiation from soot particles in the flame zone, accounting for emission and absorption in both optically thin and thick regions. A model of convective heat transfer from the combustion zone to the liquid fuel pool, and from a water substrate to cryogenic fuel pools spreading on water, provides evaporation rates for both adiabatic and non-adiabatic fires. The model is tested against field measurements of large scale pool fires, principally of LNG, and is generally in agreement with experimental values of all variables.

Effects of fire frequency on litter decomposition as mediated by changes to litter chemistry and soil environmental conditions.

PubMed

Ficken, Cari D; Wright, Justin P

2017-01-01

Litter quality and soil environmental conditions are well-studied drivers influencing decomposition rates, but the role played by disturbance legacy, such as fire history, in mediating these drivers is not well understood. Fire history may impact decomposition directly, through changes in soil conditions that impact microbial function, or indirectly, through shifts in plant community composition and litter chemistry. Here, we compared early-stage decomposition rates across longleaf pine forest blocks managed with varying fire frequencies (annual burns, triennial burns, fire-suppression). Using a reciprocal transplant design, we examined how litter chemistry and soil characteristics independently and jointly influenced litter decomposition. We found that both litter chemistry and soil environmental conditions influenced decomposition rates, but only the former was affected by historical fire frequency. Litter from annually burned sites had higher nitrogen content than litter from triennially burned and fire suppression sites, but this was correlated with only a modest increase in decomposition rates. Soil environmental conditions had a larger impact on decomposition than litter chemistry. Across the landscape, decomposition differed more along soil moisture gradients than across fire management regimes. These findings suggest that fire frequency has a limited effect on litter decomposition in this ecosystem, and encourage extending current decomposition frameworks into disturbed systems. However, litter from different species lost different masses due to fire, suggesting that fire may impact decomposition through the preferential combustion of some litter types. Overall, our findings also emphasize the important role of spatial variability in soil environmental conditions, which may be tied to fire frequency across large spatial scales, in driving decomposition rates in this system.

Effects of fire frequency on litter decomposition as mediated by changes to litter chemistry and soil environmental conditions

PubMed Central

Wright, Justin P.

2017-01-01

Litter quality and soil environmental conditions are well-studied drivers influencing decomposition rates, but the role played by disturbance legacy, such as fire history, in mediating these drivers is not well understood. Fire history may impact decomposition directly, through changes in soil conditions that impact microbial function, or indirectly, through shifts in plant community composition and litter chemistry. Here, we compared early-stage decomposition rates across longleaf pine forest blocks managed with varying fire frequencies (annual burns, triennial burns, fire-suppression). Using a reciprocal transplant design, we examined how litter chemistry and soil characteristics independently and jointly influenced litter decomposition. We found that both litter chemistry and soil environmental conditions influenced decomposition rates, but only the former was affected by historical fire frequency. Litter from annually burned sites had higher nitrogen content than litter from triennially burned and fire suppression sites, but this was correlated with only a modest increase in decomposition rates. Soil environmental conditions had a larger impact on decomposition than litter chemistry. Across the landscape, decomposition differed more along soil moisture gradients than across fire management regimes. These findings suggest that fire frequency has a limited effect on litter decomposition in this ecosystem, and encourage extending current decomposition frameworks into disturbed systems. However, litter from different species lost different masses due to fire, suggesting that fire may impact decomposition through the preferential combustion of some litter types. Overall, our findings also emphasize the important role of spatial variability in soil environmental conditions, which may be tied to fire frequency across large spatial scales, in driving decomposition rates in this system. PMID:29023560

Influence of climate variability, fire and phosphorus limitation on vegetation structure and dynamics of the Amazon-Cerrado border

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ane Dionizio, Emily; Heil Costa, Marcos; de Almeida Castanho, Andrea D.; Ferreira Pires, Gabrielle; Schwantes Marimon, Beatriz; Hur Marimon-Junior, Ben; Lenza, Eddie; Martins Pimenta, Fernando; Yang, Xiaojuan; Jain, Atul K.

2018-02-01

Climate, fire and soil nutrient limitation are important elements that affect vegetation dynamics in areas of the forest-savanna transition. In this paper, we use the dynamic vegetation model INLAND to evaluate the influence of interannual climate variability, fire and phosphorus (P) limitation on Amazon-Cerrado transitional vegetation structure and dynamics. We assess how each environmental factor affects net primary production, leaf area index and aboveground biomass (AGB), and compare the AGB simulations to an observed AGB map. We used two climate data sets (monthly average climate for 1961-1990 and interannual climate variability for 1948-2008), two data sets of total soil P content (one based on regional field measurements and one based on global data), and the INLAND fire module. Our results show that the inclusion of interannual climate variability, P limitation and fire occurrence each contribute to simulating vegetation types that more closely match observations. These effects are spatially heterogeneous and synergistic. In terms of magnitude, the effect of fire is strongest and is the main driver of vegetation changes along the transition. Phosphorus limitation, in turn, has a stronger effect on transitional ecosystem dynamics than interannual climate variability does. Overall, INLAND typically simulates more than 80 % of the AGB variability in the transition zone. However, the AGB in many places is clearly not well simulated, indicating that important soil and physiological factors in the Amazon-Cerrado border region, such as lithology, water table depth, carbon allocation strategies and mortality rates, still need to be included in the model.

Modeling the Risk of Fire/Explosion Due to Oxidizer/Fuel Leaks in the Ares I Interstage

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ring, Robert W.; Stott, James E.; Hales, Christy

2008-01-01

A significant flight hazard associated with liquid propellants, such as those used in the upper stage of NASA's new Ares I launch vehicle, is the possibility of leakage of hazardous fluids resulting in a catastrophic fire/explosion. The enclosed and vented interstage of the Ares I contains numerous oxidizer and fuel supply lines as well as ignition sources. The potential for fire/explosion due to leaks during ascent depends on the relative concentrations of hazardous and inert fluids within the interstage along with other variables such as pressure, temperature, leak rates, and fluid outgasing rates. This analysis improves on previous NASA Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) estimates of the probability of deflagration, in which many of the variables pertinent to the problem were not explicitly modeled as a function of time. This paper presents the modeling methodology developed to analyze these risks.

Post-Fire Spatial Patterns of Soil Nitrogen Mineralization and Microbial Abundance

PubMed Central

Smithwick, Erica A. H.; Naithani, Kusum J.; Balser, Teri C.; Romme, William H.; Turner, Monica G.

2012-01-01

Stand-replacing fires influence soil nitrogen availability and microbial community composition, which may in turn mediate post-fire successional dynamics and nutrient cycling. However, fires create patchiness at both local and landscape scales and do not result in consistent patterns of ecological dynamics. The objectives of this study were to (1) quantify the spatial structure of microbial communities in forest stands recently affected by stand-replacing fire and (2) determine whether microbial variables aid predictions of in situ net nitrogen mineralization rates in recently burned stands. The study was conducted in lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var. latifolia) and Engelmann spruce/subalpine fir (Picea engelmannii/Abies lasiocarpa) forest stands that burned during summer 2000 in Greater Yellowstone (Wyoming, USA). Using a fully probabilistic spatial process model and Bayesian kriging, the spatial structure of microbial lipid abundance and fungi-to-bacteria ratios were found to be spatially structured within plots two years following fire (for most plots, autocorrelation range varied from 1.5 to 10.5 m). Congruence of spatial patterns among microbial variables, in situ net N mineralization, and cover variables was evident. Stepwise regression resulted in significant models of in situ net N mineralization and included variables describing fungal and bacterial abundance, although explained variance was low (R2<0.29). Unraveling complex spatial patterns of nutrient cycling and the biotic factors that regulate it remains challenging but is critical for explaining post-fire ecosystem function, especially in Greater Yellowstone, which is projected to experience increased fire frequencies by mid 21st Century. PMID:23226324

Aircraft Engine Sump Fire Mitigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenlieb, J. W.

1973-01-01

An investigation was performed of the conditions in which fires can result and be controlled within the bearing sump simulating that of a gas turbine engine; Esso 4040 Turbo Oil, Mobil Jet 2, and Monsanto MCS-2931 lubricants were used. Control variables include the oil inlet temperature, bearing temperature, oil inlet and scavenge rates, hot air inlet temperature and flow rate, and internal sump baffling. In addition to attempting spontaneous combustion, an electric spark and a rub (friction) mechanism were employed to ignite fires. Spontaneous combustion was not obtained; however, fires were readily ignited with the electric spark while using each of the three test lubricants. Fires were also ignited using the rub mechanism with the only test lubricant evaluated, Esso 4040. Major parameters controlling ignitions were: Sump configuration; Bearing and oil temperatures, hot air temperature and flow and bearing speed. Rubbing between stationary parts and rotating parts (eg. labyrinth seal and mating rub strip) is a very potent fire source suggesting that observed accidental fires in gas turbine sumps may well arise from this cause.

A new method for the characterization of the degree of fire damage to gypsum wallboard for use in fire investigations.

PubMed

Gorbett, Gregory E; Morris, Sarah M; Meacham, Brian J; Wood, Christopher B

2015-01-01

A new method to characterize the degree of fire damage to gypsum wallboard is introduced, implemented, and tested to determine the efficacy of its application among novices. The method was evaluated by comparing degree of fire damage assessments of novices with and without the method. Thirty-nine "novice" raters assessed damage to a gypsum wallboard surface, completing 66 ratings, first without the method, and then again using the method. The inter-rater reliability was evaluated for ratings of damage without and with the method. For novice fire investigators rating degree of damage without the aid of the method, ICC(1,2) = 0.277 with 95% CI (0.211, 0.365), and with the method, ICC(2,1) = 0.593 with 95% CI (0.509, 0.684). Results indicate that the raters were more reliable in their analysis of the degree of fire damage when using the method, which support the use of standardized processes to decrease the variability in data collection and interpretation. © 2014 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

A New Approach for Determining Phase Response Curves Reveals that Purkinje Cells Can Act as Perfect Integrators

PubMed Central

Roth, Arnd; Häusser, Michael

2010-01-01

Cerebellar Purkinje cells display complex intrinsic dynamics. They fire spontaneously, exhibit bistability, and via mutual network interactions are involved in the generation of high frequency oscillations and travelling waves of activity. To probe the dynamical properties of Purkinje cells we measured their phase response curves (PRCs). PRCs quantify the change in spike phase caused by a stimulus as a function of its temporal position within the interspike interval, and are widely used to predict neuronal responses to more complex stimulus patterns. Significant variability in the interspike interval during spontaneous firing can lead to PRCs with a low signal-to-noise ratio, requiring averaging over thousands of trials. We show using electrophysiological experiments and simulations that the PRC calculated in the traditional way by sampling the interspike interval with brief current pulses is biased. We introduce a corrected approach for calculating PRCs which eliminates this bias. Using our new approach, we show that Purkinje cell PRCs change qualitatively depending on the firing frequency of the cell. At high firing rates, Purkinje cells exhibit single-peaked, or monophasic PRCs. Surprisingly, at low firing rates, Purkinje cell PRCs are largely independent of phase, resembling PRCs of ideal non-leaky integrate-and-fire neurons. These results indicate that Purkinje cells can act as perfect integrators at low firing rates, and that the integration mode of Purkinje cells depends on their firing rate. PMID:20442875

Independent rate and temporal coding in hippocampal pyramidal cells.

PubMed

Huxter, John; Burgess, Neil; O'Keefe, John

2003-10-23

In the brain, hippocampal pyramidal cells use temporal as well as rate coding to signal spatial aspects of the animal's environment or behaviour. The temporal code takes the form of a phase relationship to the concurrent cycle of the hippocampal electroencephalogram theta rhythm. These two codes could each represent a different variable. However, this requires the rate and phase to vary independently, in contrast to recent suggestions that they are tightly coupled, both reflecting the amplitude of the cell's input. Here we show that the time of firing and firing rate are dissociable, and can represent two independent variables: respectively the animal's location within the place field, and its speed of movement through the field. Independent encoding of location together with actions and stimuli occurring there may help to explain the dual roles of the hippocampus in spatial and episodic memory, or may indicate a more general role of the hippocampus in relational/declarative memory.

Interactions between rainfall, deforestation and fires during recent years in the Brazilian Amazonia.

PubMed

Aragão, Luiz Eduardo O C; Malhi, Yadvinder; Barbier, Nicolas; Lima, Andre; Shimabukuro, Yosio; Anderson, Liana; Saatchi, Sassan

2008-05-27

Understanding the interplay between climate and land-use dynamics is a fundamental concern for assessing the vulnerability of Amazonia to climate change. In this study, we analyse satellite-derived monthly and annual time series of rainfall, fires and deforestation to explicitly quantify the seasonal patterns and relationships between these three variables, with a particular focus on the Amazonian drought of 2005. Our results demonstrate a marked seasonality with one peak per year for all variables analysed, except deforestation. For the annual cycle, we found correlations above 90% with a time lag between variables. Deforestation and fires reach the highest values three and six months, respectively, after the peak of the rainy season. The cumulative number of hot pixels was linearly related to the size of the area deforested annually from 1998 to 2004 (r2=0.84, p=0.004). During the 2005 drought, the number of hot pixels increased 43% in relation to the expected value for a similar deforested area (approx. 19000km2). We demonstrated that anthropogenic forcing, such as land-use change, is decisive in determining the seasonality and annual patterns of fire occurrence. Moreover, droughts can significantly increase the number of fires in the region even with decreased deforestation rates. We may expect that the ongoing deforestation, currently based on slash and burn procedures, and the use of fires for land management in Amazonia will intensify the impact of droughts associated with natural climate variability or human-induced climate change and, therefore, a large area of forest edge will be under increased risk of fires.

A probabilistic approach to modeling erosion for spatially-varied conditions

Treesearch

William J. Elliot; Peter R. Robichaud; C. D. Pannkuk

2001-01-01

In the years following a major forest disturbance, such as fire, the erosion rate is greatly influenced by variability in weather, in soil properties, and in spatial distribution. This paper presents a method to incorporate these variabilities into the erosion rate predicted by the Water Erosion Prediction Project model. It appears that it is not necessary to describe...

Predicting fire behavior in palmetto-gallberry fuel complexes

Treesearch

W A. Hough; F. A. Albini

1978-01-01

Rate of spread, fireline intensity, and flame length can be predicted with reasonable accuracy for backfires and low-intensity head fires in the palmetto-gallberry fuel complex of the South. This fuel complex was characterized and variables were adjusted for use in Rothermel's (1972) spread model. Age of rough, height of understory, percent of area covered by...

Smoke and Emissions Model Intercomparison Project (SEMIP)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Larkin, N. K.; Raffuse, S.; Strand, T.; Solomon, R.; Sullivan, D.; Wheeler, N.

2008-12-01

Fire emissions and smoke impacts from wildland fire are a growing concern due to increasing fire season severity, dwindling tolerance of smoke by the public, tightening air quality regulations, and their role in climate change issues. Unfortunately, while a number of models and modeling system solutions are available to address these issues, the lack of quantitative information on the limitations and difference between smoke and emissions models impedes the use of these tools for real-world applications (JFSP, 2007). We describe a new, open-access project to directly address this issue, the open-access Smoke Emissions Model Intercomparison Project (SEMIP) and invite the community to participate. Preliminary work utilizing the modular BlueSky framework to directly compare fire location and size information, fuel loading amounts, fuel consumption rates, and fire emissions from a number of current models that has found model-to-model variability as high as two orders of magnitude for an individual fire. Fire emissions inventories also show significant variability on both regional and national scales that are dependant on the fire location information used (ground report vs. satellite), the fuel loading maps assumed, and the fire consumption models employed. SEMIP expands on this work and creates an open-access database of model results and observations with the goal of furthering model development and model prediction usability for real-world decision support.

Risk of large-scale fires in boreal forests of Finland under changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lehtonen, I.; Venäläinen, A.; Kämäräinen, M.; Peltola, H.; Gregow, H.

2016-01-01

The target of this work was to assess the impact of projected climate change on forest-fire activity in Finland with special emphasis on large-scale fires. In addition, we were particularly interested to examine the inter-model variability of the projected change of fire danger. For this purpose, we utilized fire statistics covering the period 1996-2014 and consisting of almost 20 000 forest fires, as well as daily meteorological data from five global climate models under representative concentration pathway RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The model data were statistically downscaled onto a high-resolution grid using the quantile-mapping method before performing the analysis. In examining the relationship between weather and fire danger, we applied the Canadian fire weather index (FWI) system. Our results suggest that the number of large forest fires may double or even triple during the present century. This would increase the risk that some of the fires could develop into real conflagrations which have become almost extinct in Finland due to active and efficient fire suppression. However, the results reveal substantial inter-model variability in the rate of the projected increase of forest-fire danger, emphasizing the large uncertainty related to the climate change signal in fire activity. We moreover showed that the majority of large fires in Finland occur within a relatively short period in May and June due to human activities and that FWI correlates poorer with the fire activity during this time of year than later in summer when lightning is a more important cause of fires.

Separating the influence of temperature, drought, and fire on interannual variability in atmospheric CO2

PubMed Central

Keppel-Aleks, Gretchen; Wolf, Aaron S; Mu, Mingquan; Doney, Scott C; Morton, Douglas C; Kasibhatla, Prasad S; Miller, John B; Dlugokencky, Edward J; Randerson, James T

2014-01-01

The response of the carbon cycle in prognostic Earth system models (ESMs) contributes significant uncertainty to projections of global climate change. Quantifying contributions of known drivers of interannual variability in the growth rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) is important for improving the representation of terrestrial ecosystem processes in these ESMs. Several recent studies have identified the temperature dependence of tropical net ecosystem exchange (NEE) as a primary driver of this variability by analyzing a single, globally averaged time series of CO2 anomalies. Here we examined how the temporal evolution of CO2 in different latitude bands may be used to separate contributions from temperature stress, drought stress, and fire emissions to CO2 variability. We developed atmospheric CO2 patterns from each of these mechanisms during 1997–2011 using an atmospheric transport model. NEE responses to temperature, NEE responses to drought, and fire emissions all contributed significantly to CO2 variability in each latitude band, suggesting that no single mechanism was the dominant driver. We found that the sum of drought and fire contributions to CO2 variability exceeded direct NEE responses to temperature in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Additional sensitivity tests revealed that these contributions are masked by temporal and spatial smoothing of CO2 observations. Accounting for fires, the sensitivity of tropical NEE to temperature stress decreased by 25% to 2.9 ± 0.4 Pg C yr−1 K−1. These results underscore the need for accurate attribution of the drivers of CO2 variability prior to using contemporary observations to constrain long-term ESM responses. PMID:26074665

Separating the influence of temperature, drought, and fire on interannual variability in atmospheric CO2.

PubMed

Keppel-Aleks, Gretchen; Wolf, Aaron S; Mu, Mingquan; Doney, Scott C; Morton, Douglas C; Kasibhatla, Prasad S; Miller, John B; Dlugokencky, Edward J; Randerson, James T

2014-11-01

The response of the carbon cycle in prognostic Earth system models (ESMs) contributes significant uncertainty to projections of global climate change. Quantifying contributions of known drivers of interannual variability in the growth rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is important for improving the representation of terrestrial ecosystem processes in these ESMs. Several recent studies have identified the temperature dependence of tropical net ecosystem exchange (NEE) as a primary driver of this variability by analyzing a single, globally averaged time series of CO 2 anomalies. Here we examined how the temporal evolution of CO 2 in different latitude bands may be used to separate contributions from temperature stress, drought stress, and fire emissions to CO 2 variability. We developed atmospheric CO 2 patterns from each of these mechanisms during 1997-2011 using an atmospheric transport model. NEE responses to temperature, NEE responses to drought, and fire emissions all contributed significantly to CO 2 variability in each latitude band, suggesting that no single mechanism was the dominant driver. We found that the sum of drought and fire contributions to CO 2 variability exceeded direct NEE responses to temperature in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Additional sensitivity tests revealed that these contributions are masked by temporal and spatial smoothing of CO 2 observations. Accounting for fires, the sensitivity of tropical NEE to temperature stress decreased by 25% to 2.9 ± 0.4 Pg C yr -1  K -1 . These results underscore the need for accurate attribution of the drivers of CO 2 variability prior to using contemporary observations to constrain long-term ESM responses.

Population and Individual Elephant Response to a Catastrophic Fire in Pilanesberg National Park

PubMed Central

Woolley, Leigh-Ann; Millspaugh, Joshua J.; Woods, Rami J.; Janse van Rensburg, Samantha; Mackey, Robin L.; Page, Bruce; Slotow, Rob

2008-01-01

In predator-free large herbivore populations, where density-dependent feedbacks occur at the limit where forage resources can no longer support the population, environmental catastrophes may play a significant role in population regulation. The potential role of fire as a stochastic mass-mortality event limiting these populations is poorly understood, so too the behavioural and physiological responses of the affected animals to this type of large disturbance event. During September 2005, a wildfire resulted in mortality of 29 (18% population mortality) and injury to 18, African elephants in Pilanesberg National Park, South Africa. We examined movement and herd association patterns of six GPS-collared breeding herds, and evaluated population physiological response through faecal glucocorticoid metabolite (stress) levels. We investigated population size, structure and projected growth rates using a simulation model. After an initial flight response post-fire, severely injured breeding herds reduced daily displacement with increased daily variability, reduced home range size, spent more time in non-tourist areas and associated less with other herds. Uninjured, or less severely injured, breeding herds also shifted into non-tourist areas post-fire, but in contrast, increased displacement rate (both mean and variability), did not adjust home range size and formed larger herds post-fire. Adult cow stress hormone levels increased significantly post-fire, whereas juvenile and adult bull stress levels did not change significantly. Most mortality occurred to the juvenile age class causing a change in post-fire population age structure. Projected population growth rate remained unchanged at 6.5% p.a., and at current fecundity levels, the population would reach its previous level three to four years post-fire. The natural mortality patterns seen in elephant populations during stochastic events, such as droughts, follows that of the classic mortality pattern seen in predator-free large ungulate populations, i.e. mainly involving juveniles. Fire therefore functions in a similar manner to other environmental catastrophes and may be a natural mechanism contributing to population limitation. Welfare concerns of arson fires, burning during “hot-fire” conditions and the conservation implications of fire suppression (i.e. removal of a potential contributing factor to natural population regulation) should be integrated into fire management strategies for conservation areas. PMID:18797503

Cerebellar Nuclear Neurons Use Time and Rate Coding to Transmit Purkinje Neuron Pauses.

PubMed

Sudhakar, Shyam Kumar; Torben-Nielsen, Benjamin; De Schutter, Erik

2015-12-01

Neurons of the cerebellar nuclei convey the final output of the cerebellum to their targets in various parts of the brain. Within the cerebellum their direct upstream connections originate from inhibitory Purkinje neurons. Purkinje neurons have a complex firing pattern of regular spikes interrupted by intermittent pauses of variable length. How can the cerebellar nucleus process this complex input pattern? In this modeling study, we investigate different forms of Purkinje neuron simple spike pause synchrony and its influence on candidate coding strategies in the cerebellar nuclei. That is, we investigate how different alignments of synchronous pauses in synthetic Purkinje neuron spike trains affect either time-locking or rate-changes in the downstream nuclei. We find that Purkinje neuron synchrony is mainly represented by changes in the firing rate of cerebellar nuclei neurons. Pause beginning synchronization produced a unique effect on nuclei neuron firing, while the effect of pause ending and pause overlapping synchronization could not be distinguished from each other. Pause beginning synchronization produced better time-locking of nuclear neurons for short length pauses. We also characterize the effect of pause length and spike jitter on the nuclear neuron firing. Additionally, we find that the rate of rebound responses in nuclear neurons after a synchronous pause is controlled by the firing rate of Purkinje neurons preceding it.

MODIS-informed greenness responsesto daytime land surface temperaturefluctuations and wildfire disturbancesin the Alaskan Yukon River Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tan, Zhengxi; Liu, Shu-Guang; Jenkerson, Calli B.; Oeding, Jennifer; Wylie, Bruce K.; Rover, Jennifer R.; Young, Claudia J.

2012-01-01

Pronounced climate warming and increased wildfire disturbances are known to modify forest composition and control the evolution of the boreal ecosystem over the Yukon River Basin (YRB) in interior Alaska. In this study, we evaluate the post-fire green-up rate using the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) derived from 250 m 7 day eMODIS (an alternative and application-ready type of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data) acquired between 2000 and 2009. Our analyses indicate measureable effects on NDVI values from vegetation type, burn severity, post-fire time, and climatic variables. The NDVI observations from both fire scars and unburned areas across the Alaskan YRB showed a tendency of an earlier start to the growing season (GS); the annual variations in NDVI were significantly correlated to daytime land surface temperature (LST) fluctuations; and the rate of post-fire green-up depended mainly on burn severity and the time of post-fire succession. The higher average NDVI values for the study period in the fire scars than in the unburned areas between 1950 and 2000 suggest that wildfires enhance post-fire greenness due to an increase in post-fire evergreen and deciduous species components

Fire and Deforestation Dynamics in South America over the Past 50 Years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Marle, M.; Field, R. D.; van der Werf, G.

2015-12-01

Fires play an important role in the Earth system and are one of the major sources of greenhouse gases and aerosols. Satellites have been key to understand their spatial and temporal variability in space and time, but the most frequently used satellite datasets start only in 1995. There are still large uncertainties about the frequency and intensity of fires in the pre-satellite time period, especially in regions with active deforestation, which may have changed dramatically in intensity in the past decades influencing fire dynamics. We used two datasets to extend the record of fires and deforestation in the Amazon region back in time: 1) annual forest loss rates starting in 1990 derived from Vegetation Optical Depth (VOD), which is a satellite-based vegetation product that can be used as proxy for forest loss, and 2) horizontal visibility as proxy for fire emissions, reported by weather stations and airports in the Amazon, which started around 1940, and having widespread coverage since 1973. We show that these datasets overlap with fire emission estimates from the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) enabling us to estimate fire emissions over the last 50 years. We will discuss how fires have varied over time in this region with globally significant emissions, how droughts have influenced fire activity and deforestation rates, and what the impact is of land-use change caused by fire on emissions in the Amazon region.

Wildfires and geochemical change in a subalpine forest over the past six millennia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leys, Bérangère; Higuera, Philip E.; McLauchlan, Kendra K.; Dunnette, Paul V.

2016-12-01

The frequency of large wildfires in western North America has been increasing in recent decades, yet the geochemical impacts of these events are poorly understood. The multidecadal timescales of both disturbance-regime variability and ecosystem responses make it challenging to study the effects of fire on terrestrial nutrient cycling. Nonetheless, disturbance-mediated changes in nutrient concentrations could ultimately limit forest productivity over centennial to millennial time scales. Here, we use a novel approach that combines quantitative elemental analysis of lake sediments using x-ray fluorescence to assess the geochemical impacts of high-severity fires in a 6200 year long sedimentary record from a small subalpine lake in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, USA. Immediately after 17 high-severity fires, the sedimentary concentrations of five elements increased (Ti, Ca, K, Al, and P), but returned to pre-fire levels within three decades. Multivariate analyses indicate that erosion of weathered mineral material from the catchment is a primary mechanism though which high-severity fires impact element cycling. A longer-term trend in sediment geochemistry was also identified over millennial time scales. This decrease in the concentrations of six elements (Al, Si, K, Ti, Mn, and Fe) over the past 6200 years may have been due to a decreased rate of high-severity fires, long-term ecosystem development, or changes in precipitation regime. Our results indicate that high-severity fire events can determine elemental concentrations in subalpine forests. The degree of variability in geochemical response across time scales suggests that shifting rates of high-severity burning can cause significant changes in key rock-derived nutrients. To our knowledge, these results are the first to reveal repeated loss of rock-derived nutrients from the terrestrial ecosystem due to high-severity fires. Understanding the future of fire-prone coniferous forests requires further documentation and quantification of this important mechanism linking fire regimes and biogeochemical cycles.

Improvement of Forest Fire Detection Algorithm Using Brightness Temperature Lapse Rate Correction in HIMAWARI-8 IR Channels: Application to the 6 may 2017 Samcheok City, Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, S. H.; Park, W.; Jung, H. S.

2018-04-01

Forest fires are a major natural disaster that destroys a forest area and a natural environment. In order to minimize the damage caused by the forest fire, it is necessary to know the location and the time of day and continuous monitoring is required until fire is fully put out. We have tried to improve the forest fire detection algorithm by using a method to reduce the variability of surrounding pixels. We focused that forest areas of East Asia, part of the Himawari-8 AHI coverage, are mostly located in mountainous areas. The proposed method was applied to the forest fire detection in Samcheok city, Korea on May 6 to 10, 2017.

Understanding Ozark Forest Litter Variability Through a Synthesis of Accumulation Rates and Fire Events

Treesearch

Michael C. Stambaugh; Richard P. Guyette; Keith W. Grabner; Jeremy Kolaks

2006-01-01

Measuring success of fuels management is improved by understanding rates of litter accumulation and decay in relation to disturbance events. Despite the broad ecological importance of litter, little is known about the parameters of accumulation and decay rates in Ozark forests. Previously published estimates were used to derive accumulation rates and combined litter...

Physiological gain leads to high ISI variability in a simple model of a cortical regular spiking cell.

PubMed

Troyer, T W; Miller, K D

1997-07-01

To understand the interspike interval (ISI) variability displayed by visual cortical neurons (Softky & Koch, 1993), it is critical to examine the dynamics of their neuronal integration, as well as the variability in their synaptic input current. Most previous models have focused on the latter factor. We match a simple integrate-and-fire model to the experimentally measured integrative properties of cortical regular spiking cells (McCormick, Connors, Lighthall, & Prince, 1985). After setting RC parameters, the post-spike voltage reset is set to match experimental measurements of neuronal gain (obtained from in vitro plots of firing frequency versus injected current). Examination of the resulting model leads to an intuitive picture of neuronal integration that unifies the seemingly contradictory 1/square root of N and random walk pictures that have previously been proposed. When ISIs are dominated by postspike recovery, 1/square root of N arguments hold and spiking is regular; after the "memory" of the last spike becomes negligible, spike threshold crossing is caused by input variance around a steady state and spiking is Poisson. In integrate-and-fire neurons matched to cortical cell physiology, steady-state behavior is predominant, and ISIs are highly variable at all physiological firing rates and for a wide range of inhibitory and excitatory inputs.

Flammability as an ecological and evolutionary driver

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pausas, Juli G.; Keeley, Jon E.; Schwilk, Dylan W.

2017-01-01

We live on a flammable planet yet there is little consensus on the origin and evolution of flammability in our flora.We argue that part of the problem lies in the concept of flammability, which should not be viewed as a single quantitative trait or metric. Rather, we propose that flammability has three major dimensions that are not necessarily correlated: ignitability, heat release and fire spread rate. These major axes of variation are controlled by different plant traits and have differing ecological impacts during fire.At the individual plant scale, these traits define three flammability strategies observed in fire-prone ecosystems: the non-flammable, the fast-flammable and the hot-flammable strategy (with low ignitability, high flame spread rate and high heat release, respectively). These strategies increase the survival or reproduction under recurrent fires, and thus, plants in fire-prone ecosystems benefit from acquiring one of them; they represent different (alternative) ways to live under recurrent fires.Synthesis. This novel framework based on different flammability strategies helps us to understand variability in flammability across scales, and provides a basis for further research.

Continental-scale partitioning of fire emissions during the 1997 to 2001 El Niño/La Niña period.

PubMed

van der Werf, Guido R; Randerson, James T; Collatz, G James; Giglio, Louis; Kasibhatla, Prasad S; Arellano, Avelino F; Olsen, Seth C; Kasischke, Eric S

2004-01-02

During the 1997 to 1998 El Niño, drought conditions triggered widespread increases in fire activity, releasing CH4 and CO2 to the atmosphere. We evaluated the contribution of fires from different continents to variability in these greenhouse gases from 1997 to 2001, using satellite-based estimates of fire activity, biogeochemical modeling, and an inverse analysis of atmospheric CO anomalies. During the 1997 to 1998 El Niño, the fire emissions anomaly was 2.1 +/- 0.8 petagrams of carbon, or 66 +/- 24% of the CO2 growth rate anomaly. The main contributors were Southeast Asia (60%), Central and South America (30%), and boreal regions of Eurasia and North America (10%).

Monitoring post-fire recovery of shrublands in Mediterranean-type ecosystems using MODIS and TM/ETM+ data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hope, Allen; Albers, Noah; Bart, Ryan

2010-05-01

Wildland fires in Mediterranean-Type Ecosystems (MTEs) are episodic events that dramatically alter land-cover conditions. Monitoring post-fire vegetation recovery is important for land management applications such as the scheduling of prescribed burns, post-fire resource management and soil erosion control. Full recovery of MTE shrublands may take many years and have a prolonged effect on water, energy and carbon fluxes in these ecosystems. Comparative studies of fynbos ecosystems in the Cape Floristic Region of South Africa (Western Cape Region) and chaparral ecosystems of California have demonstrated that there is a considerable degree of convergence in some aspects of post-fire vegetation regeneration and marked differences in other aspects. Since these MTEs have contrasting rainfall and soil nutrient conditions, an obvious question arises as to the similarity or dissimilarity in remotely sensed post-fire recovery pathways of vegetation stands in these two regions and the extent to which fire severity and drought impact the rate of vegetation recovery. Post-fire recovery pathways of chaparral and fynbos vegetation stands were characterized using the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) based on TM/ETM+ and MODIS (250 m) data. Procedures based on stands of unburned vegetation (control) were implemented to normalize the NDVI for variations associated with inter-annual differences in rainfall. Only vegetation stands that had not burned for 20 years were examined in this study to eliminate potential effects of variable fire histories on the recovery pathways. Post-fire recovery patterns of vegetation in both regions and across different vegetation types were found to be very similar. Post-fire stand age was the primary control over vegetation recovery and the NDVI returned to pre-fire values within seven to 10 years of the fires. Droughts were shown to cause slight interruptions in recovery rates while fire severity had no discernable effect. Intra-stand variability in the NDVI (pixel-scale) also returned to pre-fire values within the same time frame but increased with water stress associated with droughts. While these studies indicated that the NDVI of fynbos and chaparral stands recovered to pre-fire values within 10 years, it is recognized that other ecosystem characteristics may take considerably longer to recover. Despite the larger pixel size, MODIS data were found to be more suitable for monitoring vegetation post-fire recovery than TM/ETM+ data, requiring considerably less pre-processing and providing substantially more information regarding phenological characteristics of recovery pathways. Future studies will include consideration of fire history in the post-fire recovery characteristics of vegetation in these two MTEs.

Variance in population firing rate as a measure of slow time-scale correlation

PubMed Central

Snyder, Adam C.; Morais, Michael J.; Smith, Matthew A.

2013-01-01

Correlated variability in the spiking responses of pairs of neurons, also known as spike count correlation, is a key indicator of functional connectivity and a critical factor in population coding. Underscoring the importance of correlation as a measure for cognitive neuroscience research is the observation that spike count correlations are not fixed, but are rather modulated by perceptual and cognitive context. Yet while this context fluctuates from moment to moment, correlation must be calculated over multiple trials. This property undermines its utility as a dependent measure for investigations of cognitive processes which fluctuate on a trial-to-trial basis, such as selective attention. A measure of functional connectivity that can be assayed on a moment-to-moment basis is needed to investigate the single-trial dynamics of populations of spiking neurons. Here, we introduce the measure of population variance in normalized firing rate for this goal. We show using mathematical analysis, computer simulations and in vivo data how population variance in normalized firing rate is inversely related to the latent correlation in the population, and how this measure can be used to reliably classify trials from different typical correlation conditions, even when firing rate is held constant. We discuss the potential advantages for using population variance in normalized firing rate as a dependent measure for both basic and applied neuroscience research. PMID:24367326

Climate regulation of fire emissions and deforestation in equatorial Asia.

PubMed

van der Werf, G R; Dempewolf, J; Trigg, S N; Randerson, J T; Kasibhatla, P S; Giglio, L; Murdiyarso, D; Peters, W; Morton, D C; Collatz, G J; Dolman, A J; DeFries, R S

2008-12-23

Drainage of peatlands and deforestation have led to large-scale fires in equatorial Asia, affecting regional air quality and global concentrations of greenhouse gases. Here we used several sources of satellite data with biogeochemical and atmospheric modeling to better understand and constrain fire emissions from Indonesia, Malaysia, and Papua New Guinea during 2000-2006. We found that average fire emissions from this region [128 +/- 51 (1sigma) Tg carbon (C) year(-1), T = 10(12)] were comparable to fossil fuel emissions. In Borneo, carbon emissions from fires were highly variable, fluxes during the moderate 2006 El Niño more than 30 times greater than those during the 2000 La Niña (and with a 2000-2006 mean of 74 +/- 33 Tg C yr(-1)). Higher rates of forest loss and larger areas of peatland becoming vulnerable to fire in drought years caused a strong nonlinear relation between drought and fire emissions in southern Borneo. Fire emissions from Sumatra showed a positive linear trend, increasing at a rate of 8 Tg C year(-2) (approximately doubling during 2000-2006). These results highlight the importance of including deforestation in future climate agreements. They also imply that land manager responses to expected shifts in tropical precipitation may critically determine the strength of climate-carbon cycle feedbacks during the 21st century.

Post-fire reconstructions of fire intensity from fire severity data: quantifying the role of spatial variability of fire intensity on forest dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, Patrick; Oborne, Lisa

2015-04-01

Large, high-intensity fires have direct and long-lasting effects on forest ecosystems and present a serious threat to human life and property. However, even within the most catastrophic fires there is important variability in local-scale intensity that has important ramifications for forest mortality and regeneration. Quantifying this variability is difficult due to the rarity of catastrophic fire events, the extreme conditions at the time of the fires, and their large spatial extent. Instead fire severity is typically measured or estimated from observed patterns of vegetation mortality; however, differences in species- and size-specific responses to fires often makes fire severity a poor proxy for fire intensity. We developed a statistical method using simple, plot-based measurements of individual tree mortality to simultaneously estimate plot-level fire intensity and species-specific mortality patterns as a function of tree size. We applied our approach to an area of forest burned in the catastrophic Black Saturday fires that occurred near Melbourne, Australia, in February 2009. Despite being the most devastating fire in the past 70 years and our plots being located in the area that experienced some of the most intense fires in the 350,000 ha fire complex, we found that the estimated fire intensity was highly variable at multiple spatial scales. All eight tree species in our study differed in their susceptibility to fire-induced mortality, particularly among the largest size classes. We also found that seedling height and species richness of the post-fire seedling communities were both positively correlated with fire intensity. Spatial variability in disturbance intensity has important, but poorly understood, consequences for the short- and long-term dynamics of forests in the wake of catastrophic wildfires. Our study provides a tool to estimate fire intensity after a fire has passed, allowing new opportunities for linking spatial variability in fire intensity to forest ecosystem dynamics.

Fuel type characterization and potential fire behavior estimation in Sardinia and Corsica islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bacciu, V.; Pellizzaro, G.; Santoni, P.; Arca, B.; Ventura, A.; Salis, M.; Barboni, T.; Leroy, V.; Cancellieri, D.; Leoni, E.; Ferrat, L.; Perez, Y.; Duce, P.; Spano, D.

2012-04-01

Wildland fires represent a serious threat to forests and wooded areas of the Mediterranean Basin. As recorded by the European Commission (2009), during the last decade Southern Countries have experienced an annual average of about 50,000 forest fires and about 470,000 burned hectares. The factor that can be directly manipulated in order to minimize fire intensity and reduce other fire impacts, such as three mortality, smoke emission, and soil erosion, is wildland fuel. Fuel characteristics, such as vegetation cover, type, humidity status, and biomass and necromass loading are critical variables in affecting wildland fire occurrence, contributing to the spread, intensity, and severity of fires. Therefore, the availability of accurate fuel data at different spatial and temporal scales is needed for fire management applications, including fire behavior and danger prediction, fire fighting, fire effects simulation, and ecosystem simulation modeling. In this context, the main aims of our work are to describe the vegetation parameters involved in combustion processes and develop fire behavior fuel maps. The overall work plan is based firstly on the identification and description of the different fuel types mainly affected by fire occurrence in Sardinia (Italy) and Corsica (France) Islands, and secondly on the clusterization of the selected fuel types in relation to their potential fire behavior. In the first part of the work, the available time series of fire event perimeters and the land use map data were analyzed with the purpose of identifying the main land use types affected by fires. Thus, field sampling sites were randomly identified on the selected vegetation types and several fuel variables were collected (live and dead fuel load partitioned following Deeming et al., (1977), depth of fuel layer, plant cover, surface area-to-volume ratio, heat content). In the second part of the work, the potential fire behavior for every experimental site was simulated using BEHAVE fire behavior prediction system (Andrews, 1989) and experimental fuel data. Fire behavior was simulated by setting different weather scenarios representing the most frequent summer meteorological conditions. The simulation outputs (fireline intensity, rate of spread, flame length) were then analyzed for clustering the different fuel types in relation to their potential fire behavior. The results of this analysis can be used to produce fire behavior fuel maps that are important tools in evaluating fire hazard and risk for land management planning, locating and rating fuel treatments, and aiding in environmental assessments and fire danger programs modeling. This work is supported by FUME Project FP7-ENV-2009-1, Grant Agreement Number 243888 and Proterina-C Project, EU Italia-Francia Marittimo 2007-2013 Programme.

Synchronous fire activity in the tropical high Andes: an indication of regional climate forcing.

PubMed

Román-Cuesta, R M; Carmona-Moreno, C; Lizcano, G; New, M; Silman, M; Knoke, T; Malhi, Y; Oliveras, I; Asbjornsen, H; Vuille, M

2014-06-01

Global climate models suggest enhanced warming of the tropical mid and upper troposphere, with larger temperature rise rates at higher elevations. Changes in fire activity are amongst the most significant ecological consequences of rising temperatures and changing hydrological properties in mountainous ecosystems, and there is a global evidence of increased fire activity with elevation. Whilst fire research has become popular in the tropical lowlands, much less is known of the tropical high Andean region (>2000 masl, from Colombia to Bolivia). This study examines fire trends in the high Andes for three ecosystems, the Puna, the Paramo and the Yungas, for the period 1982-2006. We pose three questions: (i) is there an increased fire response with elevation? (ii) does the El Niño- Southern Oscillation control fire activity in this region? (iii) are the observed fire trends human driven (e.g., human practices and their effects on fuel build-up) or climate driven? We did not find evidence of increased fire activity with elevation but, instead, a quasicyclic and synchronous fire response in Ecuador, Peru and Bolivia, suggesting the influence of high-frequency climate forcing on fire responses on a subcontinental scale, in the high Andes. ENSO variability did not show a significant relation to fire activity for these three countries, partly because ENSO variability did not significantly relate to precipitation extremes, although it strongly did to temperature extremes. Whilst ENSO did not individually lead the observed regional fire trends, our results suggest a climate influence on fire activity, mainly through a sawtooth pattern of precipitation (increased rainfall before fire-peak seasons (t-1) followed by drought spells and unusual low temperatures (t0), which is particularly common where fire is carried by low fuel loads (e.g., grasslands and fine fuel). This climatic sawtooth appeared as the main driver of fire trends, above local human influences and fuel build-up cyclicity. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Studying the Post-Fire Response of Vegetation in California Protected Areas with NDVI-based Pheno-Metrics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jia, S.; Gillespie, T. W.

2016-12-01

Post-fire response from vegetation is determined by the intensity and timing of fires as well as the nature of local biomes. Though the field-based studies focusing on selected study sites helped to understand the mechanisms of post-fire response, there is a need to extend the analysis to a broader spatial extent with the assistance of remotely sensed imagery of fires and vegetation. Pheno-metrics, a series of variables on the growing cycle extracted from basic satellite measurements of vegetation coverage, translate the basic remote sensing measurements such as NDVI to the language of phenology and fire ecology in a quantitative form. In this study, we analyzed the rate of biomass removal after ignition and the speed of post-fire recovery in California protected areas from 2000 to 2014 with USGS MTBS fire data and USGS eMODIS pheno-metrics. NDVI drop caused by fire showed the aboveground biomass of evergreen forest was removed much slower than shrubland because of higher moisture level and greater density of fuel. In addition, the above two major land cover types experienced a greatly weakened immediate post-fire growing season, featuring a later start and peak of season, a shorter length of season, and a lower start and peak of NDVI. Such weakening was highly correlated with burn severity, and also influenced by the season of fire and the land cover type, according to our modeling between the anomalies of pheno-metrics and the difference of normalized burn ratio (dNBR). The influence generally decayed over time, but can remain high within the first 5 years after fire, mostly because of the introduction of exotic species when the native species were missing. Local-specific variables are necessary to better address the variance within the same fire and improve the outcomes of models. This study can help ecologists in validating the theories of post-fire vegetation response mechanisms and assist local fire managers in post-fire vegetation recovery.

Modelling the meteorological forest fire niche in heterogeneous pyrologic conditions.

PubMed

De Angelis, Antonella; Ricotta, Carlo; Conedera, Marco; Pezzatti, Gianni Boris

2015-01-01

Fire regimes are strongly related to weather conditions that directly and indirectly influence fire ignition and propagation. Identifying the most important meteorological fire drivers is thus fundamental for daily fire risk forecasting. In this context, several fire weather indices have been developed focussing mainly on fire-related local weather conditions and fuel characteristics. The specificity of the conditions for which fire danger indices are developed makes its direct transfer and applicability problematic in different areas or with other fuel types. In this paper we used the low-to-intermediate fire-prone region of Canton Ticino as a case study to develop a new daily fire danger index by implementing a niche modelling approach (Maxent). In order to identify the most suitable weather conditions for fires, different combinations of input variables were tested (meteorological variables, existing fire danger indices or a combination of both). Our findings demonstrate that such combinations of input variables increase the predictive power of the resulting index and surprisingly even using meteorological variables only allows similar or better performances than using the complex Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI). Furthermore, the niche modelling approach based on Maxent resulted in slightly improved model performance and in a reduced number of selected variables with respect to the classical logistic approach. Factors influencing final model robustness were the number of fire events considered and the specificity of the meteorological conditions leading to fire ignition.

Modelling the Meteorological Forest Fire Niche in Heterogeneous Pyrologic Conditions

PubMed Central

De Angelis, Antonella; Ricotta, Carlo; Conedera, Marco; Pezzatti, Gianni Boris

2015-01-01

Fire regimes are strongly related to weather conditions that directly and indirectly influence fire ignition and propagation. Identifying the most important meteorological fire drivers is thus fundamental for daily fire risk forecasting. In this context, several fire weather indices have been developed focussing mainly on fire-related local weather conditions and fuel characteristics. The specificity of the conditions for which fire danger indices are developed makes its direct transfer and applicability problematic in different areas or with other fuel types. In this paper we used the low-to-intermediate fire-prone region of Canton Ticino as a case study to develop a new daily fire danger index by implementing a niche modelling approach (Maxent). In order to identify the most suitable weather conditions for fires, different combinations of input variables were tested (meteorological variables, existing fire danger indices or a combination of both). Our findings demonstrate that such combinations of input variables increase the predictive power of the resulting index and surprisingly even using meteorological variables only allows similar or better performances than using the complex Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI). Furthermore, the niche modelling approach based on Maxent resulted in slightly improved model performance and in a reduced number of selected variables with respect to the classical logistic approach. Factors influencing final model robustness were the number of fire events considered and the specificity of the meteorological conditions leading to fire ignition. PMID:25679957

The Influence of Proximity to a National Forest on Emotions and Fire-Management Decisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vining, Joanne; Merrick, Melinda S.

2008-02-01

Because American national forests are managed for all citizens, it is important that researchers explore the differences and similarities between citizens living both near and far from publicly managed land. We surveyed residents living at various distances from nationally managed land to collect resident perceptions of different forest fire-management techniques, to determine public preferences for these techniques, and to examine the motivations behind these preferences. Participants both close to and far away from national forests tended to favor a multipronged approach to fire management by preferring the use of a combination of two or more fire-management techniques. There were no significant differences by proximity in participants’ self-rated emotions, types of fire-management techniques preferred, or the reasons and rationales for their preferred fire-management technique(s), indicating that the proximity variable may not be as significant as previously thought.

The influence of proximity to a national forest on emotions and fire-management decisions.

PubMed

Vining, Joanne; Merrick, Melinda S

2008-02-01

Because American national forests are managed for all citizens, it is important that researchers explore the differences and similarities between citizens living both near and far from publicly managed land. We surveyed residents living at various distances from nationally managed land to collect resident perceptions of different forest fire-management techniques, to determine public preferences for these techniques, and to examine the motivations behind these preferences. Participants both close to and far away from national forests tended to favor a multipronged approach to fire management by preferring the use of a combination of two or more fire-management techniques. There were no significant differences by proximity in participants' self-rated emotions, types of fire-management techniques preferred, or the reasons and rationales for their preferred fire-management technique(s), indicating that the proximity variable may not be as significant as previously thought.

Constraining land carbon cycle process understanding with observations of atmospheric CO2 variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collatz, G. J.; Kawa, S. R.; Liu, Y.; Zeng, F.; Ivanoff, A.

2013-12-01

We evaluate our understanding of the land biospheric carbon cycle by benchmarking a model and its variants to atmospheric CO2 observations and to an atmospheric CO2 inversion. Though the seasonal cycle in CO2 observations is well simulated by the model (RMSE/standard deviation of observations <0.5 at most sites north of 15N and <1 for Southern Hemisphere sites) different model setups suggest that the CO2 seasonal cycle provides some constraint on gross photosynthesis, respiration, and fire fluxes revealed in the amplitude and phase at northern latitude sites. CarbonTracker inversions (CT) and model show similar phasing of the seasonal fluxes but agreement in the amplitude varies by region. We also evaluate interannual variability (IAV) in the measured atmospheric CO2 which, in contrast to the seasonal cycle, is not well represented by the model. We estimate the contributions of biospheric and fire fluxes, and atmospheric transport variability to explaining observed variability in measured CO2. Comparisons with CT show that modeled IAV has some correspondence to the inversion results >40N though fluxes match poorly at regional to continental scales. Regional and global fire emissions are strongly correlated with variability observed at northern flask sample sites and in the global atmospheric CO2 growth rate though in the latter case fire emissions anomalies are not large enough to account fully for the observed variability. We discuss remaining unexplained variability in CO2 observations in terms of the representation of fluxes by the model. This work also demonstrates the limitations of the current network of CO2 observations and the potential of new denser surface measurements and space based column measurements for constraining carbon cycle processes in models.

Fuel age and fire spread: Natural conditions versus opportunities for fire suppression

USGS Publications Warehouse

Halsey, Richard W.; Keeley, Jon E.; Wilson, Kit

2009-01-01

Wildfires are driven and restrained by an interplay of variables that can lead to many potential outcomes. As every wildland firefighter learns in basic training, the ability of a fire to spread is determined by three basic variables: fuel type and condition, weather, and topography. Fire suppression obviously plays a significant role in determining fire spread as well, so firefighter activity becomes an additional variable.

Climate regulation of fire emissions and deforestation in equatorial Asia

PubMed Central

van der Werf, G. R.; Dempewolf, J.; Trigg, S. N.; Randerson, J. T.; Kasibhatla, P. S.; Giglio, L.; Murdiyarso, D.; Peters, W.; Morton, D. C.; Collatz, G. J.; Dolman, A. J.; DeFries, R. S.

2008-01-01

Drainage of peatlands and deforestation have led to large-scale fires in equatorial Asia, affecting regional air quality and global concentrations of greenhouse gases. Here we used several sources of satellite data with biogeochemical and atmospheric modeling to better understand and constrain fire emissions from Indonesia, Malaysia, and Papua New Guinea during 2000–2006. We found that average fire emissions from this region [128 ± 51 (1σ) Tg carbon (C) year−1, T = 1012] were comparable to fossil fuel emissions. In Borneo, carbon emissions from fires were highly variable, fluxes during the moderate 2006 El Niño more than 30 times greater than those during the 2000 La Niña (and with a 2000–2006 mean of 74 ± 33 Tg C yr−1). Higher rates of forest loss and larger areas of peatland becoming vulnerable to fire in drought years caused a strong nonlinear relation between drought and fire emissions in southern Borneo. Fire emissions from Sumatra showed a positive linear trend, increasing at a rate of 8 Tg C year−2 (approximately doubling during 2000–2006). These results highlight the importance of including deforestation in future climate agreements. They also imply that land manager responses to expected shifts in tropical precipitation may critically determine the strength of climate–carbon cycle feedbacks during the 21st century. PMID:19075224

Spatial gradients and multidimensional dynamics in a neural integrator circuit

PubMed Central

Miri, Andrew; Daie, Kayvon; Arrenberg, Aristides B.; Baier, Herwig; Aksay, Emre; Tank, David W.

2011-01-01

In a neural integrator, the variability and topographical organization of neuronal firing rate persistence can provide information about the circuit’s functional architecture. Here we use optical recording to measure the time constant of decay of persistent firing (“persistence time”) across a population of neurons comprising the larval zebrafish oculomotor velocity-to-position neural integrator. We find extensive persistence time variation (10-fold; coefficients of variation 0.58–1.20) across cells within individual larvae. We also find that the similarity in firing between two neurons decreased as the distance between them increased and that a gradient in persistence time was mapped along the rostrocaudal and dorsoventral axes. This topography is consistent with the emergence of persistence time heterogeneity from a circuit architecture in which nearby neurons are more strongly interconnected than distant ones. Collectively, our results can be accounted for by integrator circuit models characterized by multiple dimensions of slow firing rate dynamics. PMID:21857656

Aboriginal hunting buffers climate-driven fire-size variability in Australia's spinifex grasslands.

PubMed

Bliege Bird, Rebecca; Codding, Brian F; Kauhanen, Peter G; Bird, Douglas W

2012-06-26

Across diverse ecosystems, greater climatic variability tends to increase wildfire size, particularly in Australia, where alternating wet-dry cycles increase vegetation growth, only to leave a dry overgrown landscape highly susceptible to fire spread. Aboriginal Australian hunting fires have been hypothesized to buffer such variability, mitigating mortality on small-mammal populations, which have suffered declines and extinctions in the arid zone coincident with Aboriginal depopulation. We test the hypothesis that the relationship between climate and fire size is buffered through the maintenance of an anthropogenic, fine-grained fire regime by comparing the effect of climatic variability on landscapes dominated by Martu Aboriginal hunting fires with those dominated by lightning fires. We show that Aboriginal fires are smaller, more tightly clustered, and remain small even when climate variation causes huge fires in the lightning region. As these effects likely benefit threatened small-mammal species, Aboriginal hunters should be considered trophic facilitators, and policies aimed at reducing the risk of large fires should promote land-management strategies consistent with Aboriginal burning regimes.

Coding stimulus amplitude by correlated neural activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Metzen, Michael G.; Ávila-Åkerberg, Oscar; Chacron, Maurice J.

2015-04-01

While correlated activity is observed ubiquitously in the brain, its role in neural coding has remained controversial. Recent experimental results have demonstrated that correlated but not single-neuron activity can encode the detailed time course of the instantaneous amplitude (i.e., envelope) of a stimulus. These have furthermore demonstrated that such coding required and was optimal for a nonzero level of neural variability. However, a theoretical understanding of these results is still lacking. Here we provide a comprehensive theoretical framework explaining these experimental findings. Specifically, we use linear response theory to derive an expression relating the correlation coefficient to the instantaneous stimulus amplitude, which takes into account key single-neuron properties such as firing rate and variability as quantified by the coefficient of variation. The theoretical prediction was in excellent agreement with numerical simulations of various integrate-and-fire type neuron models for various parameter values. Further, we demonstrate a form of stochastic resonance as optimal coding of stimulus variance by correlated activity occurs for a nonzero value of noise intensity. Thus, our results provide a theoretical explanation of the phenomenon by which correlated but not single-neuron activity can code for stimulus amplitude and how key single-neuron properties such as firing rate and variability influence such coding. Correlation coding by correlated but not single-neuron activity is thus predicted to be a ubiquitous feature of sensory processing for neurons responding to weak input.

A Model-Based Approach to Infer Shifts in Regional Fire Regimes Over Time Using Sediment Charcoal Records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Itter, M.; Finley, A. O.; Hooten, M.; Higuera, P. E.; Marlon, J. R.; McLachlan, J. S.; Kelly, R.

2016-12-01

Sediment charcoal records are used in paleoecological analyses to identify individual local fire events and to estimate fire frequency and regional biomass burned at centennial to millenial time scales. Methods to identify local fire events based on sediment charcoal records have been well developed over the past 30 years, however, an integrated statistical framework for fire identification is still lacking. We build upon existing paleoecological methods to develop a hierarchical Bayesian point process model for local fire identification and estimation of fire return intervals. The model is unique in that it combines sediment charcoal records from multiple lakes across a region in a spatially-explicit fashion leading to estimation of a joint, regional fire return interval in addition to lake-specific local fire frequencies. Further, the model estimates a joint regional charcoal deposition rate free from the effects of local fires that can be used as a measure of regional biomass burned over time. Finally, the hierarchical Bayesian approach allows for tractable error propagation such that estimates of fire return intervals reflect the full range of uncertainty in sediment charcoal records. Specific sources of uncertainty addressed include sediment age models, the separation of local versus regional charcoal sources, and generation of a composite charcoal record The model is applied to sediment charcoal records from a dense network of lakes in the Yukon Flats region of Alaska. The multivariate joint modeling approach results in improved estimates of regional charcoal deposition with reduced uncertainty in the identification of individual fire events and local fire return intervals compared to individual lake approaches. Modeled individual-lake fire return intervals range from 100 to 500 years with a regional interval of roughly 200 years. Regional charcoal deposition to the network of lakes is correlated up to 50 kilometers. Finally, the joint regional charcoal deposition rate exhibits changes over time coincident with major climatic and vegetation shifts over the past 10,000 years. Ongoing work will use the regional charcoal deposition rate to estimate changes in biomass burned as a function of climate variability and regional vegetation pattern.

Seasonality of Fire Weather Strongly Influences Fire Regimes in South Florida Savanna-Grassland Landscapes

PubMed Central

Platt, William J.; Orzell, Steve L.; Slocum, Matthew G.

2015-01-01

Fire seasonality, an important characteristic of fire regimes, commonly is delineated using seasons based on single weather variables (rainfall or temperature). We used nonparametric cluster analyses of a 17-year (1993–2009) data set of weather variables that influence likelihoods and spread of fires (relative humidity, air temperature, solar radiation, wind speed, soil moisture) to explore seasonality of fire in pine savanna-grassland landscapes at the Avon Park Air Force Range in southern Florida. A four-variable, three-season model explained more variation within fire weather variables than models with more seasons. The three-season model also delineated intra-annual timing of fire more accurately than a conventional rainfall-based two-season model. Two seasons coincided roughly with dry and wet seasons based on rainfall. The third season, which we labeled the fire season, occurred between dry and wet seasons and was characterized by fire-promoting conditions present annually: drought, intense solar radiation, low humidity, and warm air temperatures. Fine fuels consisting of variable combinations of pyrogenic pine needles, abundant C4 grasses, and flammable shrubs, coupled with low soil moisture, and lightning ignitions early in the fire season facilitate natural landscape-scale wildfires that burn uplands and across wetlands. We related our three season model to fires with different ignition sources (lightning, military missions, and prescribed fires) over a 13-year period with fire records (1997–2009). Largest wildfires originate from lightning and military ignitions that occur within the early fire season substantially prior to the peak of lightning strikes in the wet season. Prescribed ignitions, in contrast, largely occur outside the fire season. Our delineation of a pronounced fire season provides insight into the extent to which different human-derived fire regimes mimic lightning fire regimes. Delineation of a fire season associated with timing of natural lightning ignitions should be useful as a basis for ecological fire management of humid savanna-grassland landscapes worldwide. PMID:25574667

Seasonality of fire weather strongly influences fire regimes in South Florida savanna-grassland landscapes.

PubMed

Platt, William J; Orzell, Steve L; Slocum, Matthew G

2015-01-01

Fire seasonality, an important characteristic of fire regimes, commonly is delineated using seasons based on single weather variables (rainfall or temperature). We used nonparametric cluster analyses of a 17-year (1993-2009) data set of weather variables that influence likelihoods and spread of fires (relative humidity, air temperature, solar radiation, wind speed, soil moisture) to explore seasonality of fire in pine savanna-grassland landscapes at the Avon Park Air Force Range in southern Florida. A four-variable, three-season model explained more variation within fire weather variables than models with more seasons. The three-season model also delineated intra-annual timing of fire more accurately than a conventional rainfall-based two-season model. Two seasons coincided roughly with dry and wet seasons based on rainfall. The third season, which we labeled the fire season, occurred between dry and wet seasons and was characterized by fire-promoting conditions present annually: drought, intense solar radiation, low humidity, and warm air temperatures. Fine fuels consisting of variable combinations of pyrogenic pine needles, abundant C4 grasses, and flammable shrubs, coupled with low soil moisture, and lightning ignitions early in the fire season facilitate natural landscape-scale wildfires that burn uplands and across wetlands. We related our three season model to fires with different ignition sources (lightning, military missions, and prescribed fires) over a 13-year period with fire records (1997-2009). Largest wildfires originate from lightning and military ignitions that occur within the early fire season substantially prior to the peak of lightning strikes in the wet season. Prescribed ignitions, in contrast, largely occur outside the fire season. Our delineation of a pronounced fire season provides insight into the extent to which different human-derived fire regimes mimic lightning fire regimes. Delineation of a fire season associated with timing of natural lightning ignitions should be useful as a basis for ecological fire management of humid savanna-grassland landscapes worldwide.

Spike Pattern Structure Influences Synaptic Efficacy Variability under STDP and Synaptic Homeostasis. I: Spike Generating Models on Converging Motifs

PubMed Central

Bi, Zedong; Zhou, Changsong

2016-01-01

In neural systems, synaptic plasticity is usually driven by spike trains. Due to the inherent noises of neurons and synapses as well as the randomness of connection details, spike trains typically exhibit variability such as spatial randomness and temporal stochasticity, resulting in variability of synaptic changes under plasticity, which we call efficacy variability. How the variability of spike trains influences the efficacy variability of synapses remains unclear. In this paper, we try to understand this influence under pair-wise additive spike-timing dependent plasticity (STDP) when the mean strength of plastic synapses into a neuron is bounded (synaptic homeostasis). Specifically, we systematically study, analytically and numerically, how four aspects of statistical features, i.e., synchronous firing, burstiness/regularity, heterogeneity of rates and heterogeneity of cross-correlations, as well as their interactions influence the efficacy variability in converging motifs (simple networks in which one neuron receives from many other neurons). Neurons (including the post-synaptic neuron) in a converging motif generate spikes according to statistical models with tunable parameters. In this way, we can explicitly control the statistics of the spike patterns, and investigate their influence onto the efficacy variability, without worrying about the feedback from synaptic changes onto the dynamics of the post-synaptic neuron. We separate efficacy variability into two parts: the drift part (DriftV) induced by the heterogeneity of change rates of different synapses, and the diffusion part (DiffV) induced by weight diffusion caused by stochasticity of spike trains. Our main findings are: (1) synchronous firing and burstiness tend to increase DiffV, (2) heterogeneity of rates induces DriftV when potentiation and depression in STDP are not balanced, and (3) heterogeneity of cross-correlations induces DriftV together with heterogeneity of rates. We anticipate our work important for understanding functional processes of neuronal networks (such as memory) and neural development. PMID:26941634

Determining the rate of forest conversion in Mato Grosso, Brazil, using Landsat MSS and AVHRR data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nelson, Ross; Horning, Ned; Stone, Thomas A.

1987-01-01

AVHRR-LAC thermal data and Landsat MSS and TM spectral data were used to estimate the rate of forest clearing in Mato Grosso, Brazil, between 1981 and 1984. The Brazilian state was stratified into forest and nonforest. A list sampling procedure was used in the forest stratum to select Landsat MSS scenes for processing based on estimates of fire activity in the scenes. Fire activity in 1984 was estimated using AVHRR-LAC thermal data. State-wide estimates of forest conversion indicate that between 1981 and 1984, 353,966 ha + or - 77,000 ha (0.4 percent of the state area) were converted per year. No evidence of reforestation was found in this digital sample. The relationship between forest clearing rate (based on MSS-TM analysis) and fire activity (estimated using AVHRR data) was noisy (R-squared = 0.41). The results suggest that AVHRR data may be put to better use as a stratification tool than as a subsidiary variable in list sampling.

Crown fuel spatial variability and predictability of fire spread

Treesearch

Russell A. Parsons; Jeremy Sauer; Rodman R. Linn

2010-01-01

Fire behavior predictions, as well as measures of uncertainty in those predictions, are essential in operational and strategic fire management decisions. While it is becoming common practice to assess uncertainty in fire behavior predictions arising from variability in weather inputs, uncertainty arising from the fire models themselves is difficult to assess. This is...

Variability of wildland fire emissions across the contiguous United States

Treesearch

YongQiang Liu

2004-01-01

This study analyzes spatial and temporal variability of emissions from wildland fires across the contiguous US. The emissions are estimates based on a recently constructed dataset of historical fire records collected by multiple US governlnental agencies. Both wildfire and prescribed fires have the highest emissions over the Pacific coastal states. Prescribed fire...

Aboriginal hunting buffers climate-driven fire-size variability in Australia’s spinifex grasslands

PubMed Central

Bliege Bird, Rebecca; Codding, Brian F.; Kauhanen, Peter G.

2012-01-01

Across diverse ecosystems, greater climatic variability tends to increase wildfire size, particularly in Australia, where alternating wet–dry cycles increase vegetation growth, only to leave a dry overgrown landscape highly susceptible to fire spread. Aboriginal Australian hunting fires have been hypothesized to buffer such variability, mitigating mortality on small-mammal populations, which have suffered declines and extinctions in the arid zone coincident with Aboriginal depopulation. We test the hypothesis that the relationship between climate and fire size is buffered through the maintenance of an anthropogenic, fine-grained fire regime by comparing the effect of climatic variability on landscapes dominated by Martu Aboriginal hunting fires with those dominated by lightning fires. We show that Aboriginal fires are smaller, more tightly clustered, and remain small even when climate variation causes huge fires in the lightning region. As these effects likely benefit threatened small-mammal species, Aboriginal hunters should be considered trophic facilitators, and policies aimed at reducing the risk of large fires should promote land-management strategies consistent with Aboriginal burning regimes. PMID:22689979

Experimental Study on the Fire Performance of Tubular Steel Columns with Membrane Protections for Prefabricated and Modular Steel Construction

PubMed Central

Zhang, Xin; Peng, Lei; Ni, Zhao-peng; Ni, Tian-xiao; Huang, Yi-liang; Zhou, Yang

2018-01-01

Experimental research was conducted to study the fire resistance of steel tubular columns used in prefabricated and modular construction. In order to achieve high-efficient prefabrication and fast on-site installation, membrane protections using board products and thermal insulation blankets are adopted as the favorable protection method. Three protected tubular columns were tested in a full-scale column furnace with axial load applied. The study variables were different membranes, including fiber reinforced calcium silicate (FRCS) boards, rock wool and aluminum silica (Fiberfrax) insulations. The results suggest that one layer of 12 mm FRCS board with rock wool insulation has insufficient fire protection. However, steel columns protected with two layers of 12 mm FRCS boards with insulation appeared to have good fire resistances and could achieve a fire resistance rating as high as 2.5~3.0 h. PMID:29547574

Risk for large-scale fires in boreal forests of Finland under changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lehtonen, I.; Venäläinen, A.; Kämäräinen, M.; Peltola, H.; Gregow, H.

2015-08-01

The target of this work was to assess the impact of projected climate change on the number of large forest fires (over 10 ha fires) and burned area in Finland. For this purpose, we utilized a strong relationship between fire occurrence and the Canadian fire weather index (FWI) during 1996-2014. We used daily data from five global climate models under representative concentration pathway RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The model data were statistically downscaled onto a high-resolution grid using the quantile-mapping method before performing the analysis. Our results suggest that the number of large forest fires may double or even triple during the present century. This would increase the risk that some of the fires could develop into real conflagrations which have become almost extinct in Finland due to active and efficient fire suppression. Our results also reveal substantial inter-model variability in the rate of the projected increase in forest-fire danger. We moreover showed that the majority of large fires occur within a relatively short period in May and June due to human activities and that FWI correlates poorer with the fire activity during this time of year than later in summer when lightning is more important cause of fires.

Climate Variability and Wildfires: Insights from Global Earth System Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ward, D. S.; Shevliakova, E.; Malyshev, S.; Lamarque, J. F.; Wittenberg, A. T.

2016-12-01

Better understanding of the relationship between variability in global climate and emissions from wildfires is needed for predictions of fire activity on interannual to multi-decadal timescales. Here we investigate this relationship using the long, preindustrial control simulations and historical ensembles of two Earth System models; CESM1 and the NOAA/GFDL ESM2Mb. There is smaller interannual variability of global fires in both models than in present day inventories, especially in boreal regions where observed fires vary substantially from year to year. Patterns of fire response to climate oscillation indices, including the El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Meridional Oscillation (AMO) are explored with the model results and compared to the response derived from satellite measurements and proxy observations. Increases in fire emissions in southeast Asia and boreal North America are associated with positive ENSO and PDO, while United States fires and Sahel fires decrease for the same climate conditions. Boreal fire emissions decrease in CESM1 for the warm phase of the AMO, while ESM2Mb did not produce a reliable AMO. CESM1 produces a weak negative trend in global fire emissions for the period 1920 to 2005, while ESM2Mb produces a positive trend over the same period. Both trends are statistically significant at a confidence level of 95% or greater given the variability derived from the respective preindustrial controls. In addition to climate variability impacts on fires, we also explore the impacts of fire emissions on climate variability and atmospheric chemistry. We analyze three long, free-evolving ESM2Mb simulations; one without fire emissions, one with constant year-over-year fire emissions based on a present day inventory, and one with interannually varying fire emissions coupled between the terrestrial and atmospheric components of the model, to gain a better understanding of the role of fire emissions in climate over long timescales.

Spatial and Temporal Variability and Trends in 2001-2016 Global Fire Activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Earl, Nick; Simmonds, Ian

2018-03-01

Fire regimes across the globe have great spatial and temporal variability, and these are influence by many factors including anthropogenic management, climate, and vegetation types. Here we utilize the satellite-based "active fire" product, from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors, to statistically analyze variability and trends in fire activity from the global to regional scales. We split up the regions by economic development, region/geographical land use, clusters of fire-abundant areas, or by religious/cultural influence. Weekly cycle tests are conducted to highlight and quantify part of the anthropogenic influence on fire regime across the world. We find that there is a strong statistically significant decline in 2001-2016 active fires globally linked to an increase in net primary productivity observed in northern Africa, along with global agricultural expansion and intensification, which generally reduces fire activity. There are high levels of variability, however. The large-scale regions exhibit either little change or decreasing in fire activity except for strong increasing trends in India and China, where rapid population increase is occurring, leading to agricultural intensification and increased crop residue burning. Variability in Canada has been linked to a warming global climate leading to a longer growing season and higher fuel loads. Areas with a strong weekly cycle give a good indication of where fire management is being applied most extensively, for example, the United States, where few areas retain a natural fire regime.

Understorey fire frequency and the fate of burned forests in southern Amazonia.

PubMed

Morton, D C; Le Page, Y; DeFries, R; Collatz, G J; Hurtt, G C

2013-06-05

Recent drought events underscore the vulnerability of Amazon forests to understorey fires. The long-term impact of fires on biodiversity and forest carbon stocks depends on the frequency of fire damages and deforestation rates of burned forests. Here, we characterized the spatial and temporal dynamics of understorey fires (1999-2010) and deforestation (2001-2010) in southern Amazonia using new satellite-based estimates of annual fire activity (greater than 50 ha) and deforestation (greater than 10 ha). Understorey forest fires burned more than 85 500 km(2) between 1999 and 2010 (2.8% of all forests). Forests that burned more than once accounted for 16 per cent of all understorey fires. Repeated fire activity was concentrated in Mato Grosso and eastern Pará, whereas single fires were widespread across the arc of deforestation. Routine fire activity in Mato Grosso coincided with annual periods of low night-time relative humidity, suggesting a strong climate control on both single and repeated fires. Understorey fires occurred in regions with active deforestation, yet the interannual variability of fire and deforestation were uncorrelated, and only 2.6 per cent of forests that burned between 1999 and 2008 were deforested for agricultural use by 2010. Evidence from the past decade suggests that future projections of frontier landscapes in Amazonia should separately consider economic drivers to project future deforestation and climate to project fire risk.

Understorey fire frequency and the fate of burned forests in southern Amazonia

PubMed Central

Morton, D. C.; Le Page, Y.; DeFries, R.; Collatz, G. J.; Hurtt, G. C.

2013-01-01

Recent drought events underscore the vulnerability of Amazon forests to understorey fires. The long-term impact of fires on biodiversity and forest carbon stocks depends on the frequency of fire damages and deforestation rates of burned forests. Here, we characterized the spatial and temporal dynamics of understorey fires (1999–2010) and deforestation (2001–2010) in southern Amazonia using new satellite-based estimates of annual fire activity (greater than 50 ha) and deforestation (greater than 10 ha). Understorey forest fires burned more than 85 500 km2 between 1999 and 2010 (2.8% of all forests). Forests that burned more than once accounted for 16 per cent of all understorey fires. Repeated fire activity was concentrated in Mato Grosso and eastern Pará, whereas single fires were widespread across the arc of deforestation. Routine fire activity in Mato Grosso coincided with annual periods of low night-time relative humidity, suggesting a strong climate control on both single and repeated fires. Understorey fires occurred in regions with active deforestation, yet the interannual variability of fire and deforestation were uncorrelated, and only 2.6 per cent of forests that burned between 1999 and 2008 were deforested for agricultural use by 2010. Evidence from the past decade suggests that future projections of frontier landscapes in Amazonia should separately consider economic drivers to project future deforestation and climate to project fire risk. PMID:23610169

Analysis of Post-Fire Vegetation Recovery in the Mediterranean Basin using MODIS Derived Vegetation Indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hawtree, Daniel; San Miguel, Jesus; Sedano, Fernando; Kempeneers, Pieter

2010-05-01

The Mediterranean basin region is highly susceptible to wildfire, with approximately 60,000 individual fires and half a million ha of natural vegetation burnt per year. Of particular concern in this region is the impact of repeated wildfires on the ability of natural lands to return to a pre-fire state, and of the possibility of desertification of semi-arid areas. Given these concerns, understanding the temporal patterns of vegetation recovery is important for the management of environmental resources in the region. A valuable tool for evaluating these recovery patterns are vegetation indices derived from remote sensing data. Previous research on post-fire vegetation recovery conducted in this region has found significant variability in recovery times across different study sites. It is unclear what the primary variables are affecting the differences in the rates of recovery, and if any geographic patterns of behavior exist across the Mediterranean basin. This research has primarily been conducted using indices derived from Landsat imagery. However, no extensive analysis of vegetation regeneration for large regions has been published, and assessment of vegetation recovery on the basis of medium-spatial resolution imagery such as that of MODIS has not yet been analyzed. This study examines the temporal pattern of vegetation recovery in a number of fire sites in the Mediterranean basin, using data derived from MODIS 16 -day composite vegetation indices. The intent is to develop a more complete picture of the temporal sequence of vegetation recovery, and to evaluate what additional factors impact variations in the recovery sequence. In addition, this study evaluates the utility of using MODIS derived vegetation indices for regeneration studies, and compares the findings to earlier studies which rely on Landsat data. Wildfires occurring between the years 2000 and 2004 were considered as potential study sites for this research. Using the EFFIS dataset, all wildfires covering an area of at least 1,000 ha were identified. The land-cover / land-use of these large fires sites were then evaluated using the CORINE land-cover data set, and the sites dominated primarily by natural vegetation were identified. Once these candidate sites were identified, a subset was selected across a range of locations and site characteristics for post-fire recovery analysis. To evaluate the post-fire recovery sequence in these locations, time-series of NDVI, EVI, and LAI were derived using 250 meter resolution MODIS data (MOD13Q). The vegetation index values were then compared to pre-fire values to determine recovery relative to the pre-fire vegetative state. The variability in rates of recovery are then considered with respect to moisture availability, vegetation type, and local site conditions to evaluate if any patterns of recovery can be determined.

Daily and 3-hourly Variability in Global Fire Emissions and Consequences for Atmospheric Model Predictions of Carbon Monoxide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mu, M.; Randerson, J. T.; vanderWerf, G. R.; Giglio, L.; Kasibhatla, P.; Morton, D.; Collatz, G. J.; DeFries, R. S.; Hyer, E. J.; Prins, E. M.;

Accelerating rejection-based simulation of biochemical reactions with bounded acceptance probability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thanh, Vo Hong; Priami, Corrado; Zunino, Roberto

2016-06-01

Stochastic simulation of large biochemical reaction networks is often computationally expensive due to the disparate reaction rates and high variability of population of chemical species. An approach to accelerate the simulation is to allow multiple reaction firings before performing update by assuming that reaction propensities are changing of a negligible amount during a time interval. Species with small population in the firings of fast reactions significantly affect both performance and accuracy of this simulation approach. It is even worse when these small population species are involved in a large number of reactions. We present in this paper a new approximate algorithm to cope with this problem. It is based on bounding the acceptance probability of a reaction selected by the exact rejection-based simulation algorithm, which employs propensity bounds of reactions and the rejection-based mechanism to select next reaction firings. The reaction is ensured to be selected to fire with an acceptance rate greater than a predefined probability in which the selection becomes exact if the probability is set to one. Our new algorithm improves the computational cost for selecting the next reaction firing and reduces the updating the propensities of reactions.

Accelerating rejection-based simulation of biochemical reactions with bounded acceptance probability

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thanh, Vo Hong, E-mail: vo@cosbi.eu; Priami, Corrado, E-mail: priami@cosbi.eu; Department of Mathematics, University of Trento, Trento

Stochastic simulation of large biochemical reaction networks is often computationally expensive due to the disparate reaction rates and high variability of population of chemical species. An approach to accelerate the simulation is to allow multiple reaction firings before performing update by assuming that reaction propensities are changing of a negligible amount during a time interval. Species with small population in the firings of fast reactions significantly affect both performance and accuracy of this simulation approach. It is even worse when these small population species are involved in a large number of reactions. We present in this paper a new approximatemore » algorithm to cope with this problem. It is based on bounding the acceptance probability of a reaction selected by the exact rejection-based simulation algorithm, which employs propensity bounds of reactions and the rejection-based mechanism to select next reaction firings. The reaction is ensured to be selected to fire with an acceptance rate greater than a predefined probability in which the selection becomes exact if the probability is set to one. Our new algorithm improves the computational cost for selecting the next reaction firing and reduces the updating the propensities of reactions.« less

Contributions of microbial activity and ash deposition to post-fire nitrogen availability in a pine savanna

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ficken, Cari D.; Wright, Justin P.

2017-01-01

Many ecosystems experience drastic changes to soil nutrient availability associated with fire, but the magnitude and duration of these changes are highly variable among vegetation and fire types. In pyrogenic pine savannas across the southeastern United States, pulses of soil inorganic nitrogen (N) occur in tandem with ecosystem-scale nutrient losses from prescribed burns. Despite the importance of this management tool for restoring and maintaining fire-dependent plant communities, the contributions of different mechanisms underlying fire-associated changes to soil N availability remain unclear. Pulses of N availability following fire have been hypothesized to occur through (1) changes to microbial cycling rates and (2) direct ash deposition. Here, we document fire-associated changes to N availability across the growing season in a longleaf pine savanna in North Carolina. To differentiate between possible mechanisms driving soil N pulses, we measured net microbial cycling rates and changes to soil δ15N before and after a burn. Our findings refute both proposed mechanisms: we found no evidence for changes in microbial activity, and limited evidence that ash deposition could account for the increase in ammonium availability to more than 5-25 times background levels. Consequently, we propose a third mechanism to explain post-fire patterns of soil N availability, namely that (3) changes to plant sink strength may contribute to ephemeral increases in soil N availability, and encourage future studies to explicitly test this mechanism.

A fire management simulation model using stochastic arrival times

Treesearch

Eric L. Smith

1987-01-01

Fire management simulation models are used to predict the impact of changes in the fire management program on fire outcomes. As with all models, the goal is to abstract reality without seriously distorting relationships between variables of interest. One important variable of fire organization performance is the length of time it takes to get suppression units to the...

Variation in tree mortality and regeneration affect forest carbon recovery following fuel treatments and wildfire in the Lake Tahoe Basin, California, USA.

PubMed

Carlson, Chris H; Dobrowski, Solomon Z; Safford, Hugh D

2012-06-28

Forest fuel treatments have been proposed as tools to stabilize carbon stocks in fire-prone forests in the Western U.S.A. Although fuel treatments such as thinning and burning are known to immediately reduce forest carbon stocks, there are suggestions that these losses may be paid back over the long-term if treatments sufficiently reduce future wildfire severity, or prevent deforestation. Although fire severity and post-fire tree regeneration have been indicated as important influences on long-term carbon dynamics, it remains unclear how natural variability in these processes might affect the ability of fuel treatments to protect forest carbon resources. We surveyed a wildfire where fuel treatments were put in place before fire and estimated the short-term impact of treatment and wildfire on aboveground carbon stocks at our study site. We then used a common vegetation growth simulator in conjunction with sensitivity analysis techniques to assess how predicted timescales of carbon recovery after fire are sensitive to variation in rates of fire-related tree mortality, and post-fire tree regeneration. We found that fuel reduction treatments were successful at ameliorating fire severity at our study site by removing an estimated 36% of aboveground biomass. Treated and untreated stands stored similar amounts of carbon three years after wildfire, but differences in fire severity were such that untreated stands maintained only 7% of aboveground carbon as live trees, versus 51% in treated stands. Over the long-term, our simulations suggest that treated stands in our study area will recover baseline carbon storage 10-35 years more quickly than untreated stands. Our sensitivity analysis found that rates of fire-related tree mortality strongly influence estimates of post-fire carbon recovery. Rates of regeneration were less influential on recovery timing, except when fire severity was high. Our ability to predict the response of forest carbon resources to anthropogenic and natural disturbances requires models that incorporate uncertainty in processes important to long-term forest carbon dynamics. To the extent that fuel treatments are able to ameliorate tree mortality rates or prevent deforestation resulting from wildfire, our results suggest that treatments may be a viable strategy to stabilize existing forest carbon stocks.

Variation in tree mortality and regeneration affect forest carbon recovery following fuel treatments and wildfire in the Lake Tahoe Basin, California, USA

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Forest fuel treatments have been proposed as tools to stabilize carbon stocks in fire-prone forests in the Western U.S.A. Although fuel treatments such as thinning and burning are known to immediately reduce forest carbon stocks, there are suggestions that these losses may be paid back over the long-term if treatments sufficiently reduce future wildfire severity, or prevent deforestation. Although fire severity and post-fire tree regeneration have been indicated as important influences on long-term carbon dynamics, it remains unclear how natural variability in these processes might affect the ability of fuel treatments to protect forest carbon resources. We surveyed a wildfire where fuel treatments were put in place before fire and estimated the short-term impact of treatment and wildfire on aboveground carbon stocks at our study site. We then used a common vegetation growth simulator in conjunction with sensitivity analysis techniques to assess how predicted timescales of carbon recovery after fire are sensitive to variation in rates of fire-related tree mortality, and post-fire tree regeneration. Results We found that fuel reduction treatments were successful at ameliorating fire severity at our study site by removing an estimated 36% of aboveground biomass. Treated and untreated stands stored similar amounts of carbon three years after wildfire, but differences in fire severity were such that untreated stands maintained only 7% of aboveground carbon as live trees, versus 51% in treated stands. Over the long-term, our simulations suggest that treated stands in our study area will recover baseline carbon storage 10–35 years more quickly than untreated stands. Our sensitivity analysis found that rates of fire-related tree mortality strongly influence estimates of post-fire carbon recovery. Rates of regeneration were less influential on recovery timing, except when fire severity was high. Conclusions Our ability to predict the response of forest carbon resources to anthropogenic and natural disturbances requires models that incorporate uncertainty in processes important to long-term forest carbon dynamics. To the extent that fuel treatments are able to ameliorate tree mortality rates or prevent deforestation resulting from wildfire, our results suggest that treatments may be a viable strategy to stabilize existing forest carbon stocks. PMID:22741762

Environmental variables and levels of exhaled carbon monoxide and carboxyhemoglobin in elderly people taking exercise.

PubMed

Salicio, Marcos Adriano; Mana, Viviane Aparecida Martins; Fett, Waléria Christiane Rezende; Gomes, Luciano Teixeira; Botelho, Clovis

2016-04-01

This article aims to analyze levels of exhaled carbon monoxide, carboxyhemoglobinand cardiopulmonary variables in old people practicing exercise in external environments, and correlate them with climate and pollution factors. Temporal ecological study with118 active elderly people in the city of Cuiabá, in the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil. Data were obtained on use of medication, smoking, anthropometric measurements, spirometry, peak flow, oxygen saturation, heart rate, exhaled carbon monoxide, carboxyhemoglobin, climate, number of farm fires and pollution. Correlations were found between on the one hand environmental temperature, relative humidity of the air and number of farmers' fires, and on the other hand levels of carbon monoxide exhaled and carboxyhemoglobin (p < 0.05).There was a correlation between heart rate and changes in environmental temperature, time of exposure to the sun and relative humidity (p < 0.05). In elderly people, environmental factors influence levels of exhaled carbon monoxide, carboxyhemoglobin and heart rate. There is thus a need for these to be monitored during exercise. The use of a carbon monoxide monitor to evaluate exposure to pollutants is suggested.

Erosive burning research. [for solid-propellant rocket engines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Strand, L.; Yang, L. C.; Nguyen, M. H.; Cohen, N. S.

1986-01-01

A status report is given on the results for the completed tests in a series of motor firings being carried out to measure the effects of the parameters that are considered to most strongly influence the scaling to larger rocket motor sizes of the transition to/or threshold conditions for erosive burning rate augmentation. Propellant burning rates at locations along the axis of the test motors are measured with a newly developed plasma capacitance gauge technique. The measured results are compared with erosive-burning predictions from a supporting ballistics analysis. The completed motor firings have successfully demonstrated response to the designed test variables. The trends with varying propellant burning rate, chamber pressure, and mass flow rate are consistent with existing results, but no pronounced effect of surface roughness has been observed. Rather, the influence of propellant oxidizer particle size on erosive burning is through its effect on the base, no-corssflow burning rate.

Spike Pattern Structure Influences Synaptic Efficacy Variability under STDP and Synaptic Homeostasis. II: Spike Shuffling Methods on LIF Networks

PubMed Central

Bi, Zedong; Zhou, Changsong

2016-01-01

Synapses may undergo variable changes during plasticity because of the variability of spike patterns such as temporal stochasticity and spatial randomness. Here, we call the variability of synaptic weight changes during plasticity to be efficacy variability. In this paper, we investigate how four aspects of spike pattern statistics (i.e., synchronous firing, burstiness/regularity, heterogeneity of rates and heterogeneity of cross-correlations) influence the efficacy variability under pair-wise additive spike-timing dependent plasticity (STDP) and synaptic homeostasis (the mean strength of plastic synapses into a neuron is bounded), by implementing spike shuffling methods onto spike patterns self-organized by a network of excitatory and inhibitory leaky integrate-and-fire (LIF) neurons. With the increase of the decay time scale of the inhibitory synaptic currents, the LIF network undergoes a transition from asynchronous state to weak synchronous state and then to synchronous bursting state. We first shuffle these spike patterns using a variety of methods, each designed to evidently change a specific pattern statistics; and then investigate the change of efficacy variability of the synapses under STDP and synaptic homeostasis, when the neurons in the network fire according to the spike patterns before and after being treated by a shuffling method. In this way, we can understand how the change of pattern statistics may cause the change of efficacy variability. Our results are consistent with those of our previous study which implements spike-generating models on converging motifs. We also find that burstiness/regularity is important to determine the efficacy variability under asynchronous states, while heterogeneity of cross-correlations is the main factor to cause efficacy variability when the network moves into synchronous bursting states (the states observed in epilepsy). PMID:27555816

Climate drives inter-annual variability in probability of high severity fire occurrence in the western United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keyser, Alisa; Westerling, Anthony LeRoy

2017-05-01

A long history of fire suppression in the western United States has significantly changed forest structure and ecological function, leading to increasingly uncharacteristic fires in terms of size and severity. Prior analyses of fire severity in California forests showed that time since last fire and fire weather conditions predicted fire severity very well, while a larger regional analysis showed that topography and climate were important predictors of high severity fire. There has not yet been a large-scale study that incorporates topography, vegetation and fire-year climate to determine regional scale high severity fire occurrence. We developed models to predict the probability of high severity fire occurrence for the western US. We predict high severity fire occurrence with some accuracy, and identify the relative importance of predictor classes in determining the probability of high severity fire. The inclusion of both vegetation and fire-year climate predictors was critical for model skill in identifying fires with high fractional fire severity. The inclusion of fire-year climate variables allows this model to forecast inter-annual variability in areas at future risk of high severity fire, beyond what slower-changing fuel conditions alone can accomplish. This allows for more targeted land management, including resource allocation for fuels reduction treatments to decrease the risk of high severity fire.

Daily and Hourly Variability in Global Fire Emissions and Consequences for Atmospheric Model Predictions of Carbon Monoxide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mu, M.; Randerson, J. T.; van der Werf, G. R.; Giglio, L.; Kasibhatla, P.; Morton, D.; Collatz, G. J.; DeFries, R. S.; Hyer, E. J.; Prins, E. M.;

The benefits of data linkage for firefighter injury surveillance.

PubMed

Widman, Shannon A; LeVasseur, Michael T; Tabb, Loni P; Taylor, Jennifer A

2018-02-01

While survey data are available for national estimates of fire events and firefighter fatalities, data on firefighter injury at the national and local levels remain incomplete and unreliable. Data linkage provides a vehicle to maximise case detection and deepen injury description for the US fire service. By linking departmental Human Resources records, despatch data, workers' compensation and first reports of injury, researchers were able to describe reported non-fatal injuries to 3063 uniformed members of the Philadelphia Fire Department (PFD), for the period of 2005 through 2013. Among all four databases, the overall linkage rate was 56%. Among three of the four databases, the linkage rate was 88%. Because there was duplication of some variables among the datasets, we were able to deeply describe all the linked injuries in the master database. 45.5% of uniformed PFD members reported at least one injury during the study period. Strains, falls, burns and struck-by injuries were the most common causes. Burns resulted in the highest lost time claim payout, and strains accounted for the highest medical claim cost. More than 70% of injuries occurred in the first 15 years of experience. Data linkage provided three new benefits: (1) creation of a new variable-years of experience, (2) reduction of misclassification bias when determining cause of injury, leading to more accurate estimates of cost and (3) visualisation of injury rates when controlling for the number of fire department responses, allowing for the generation of hypotheses to investigate injury hot spots. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Topography and climate are more important drivers of long-term, post-fire vegetation assembly than time-since-fire in the Sonoran Desert, US

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shryock, Daniel F.; Esque, Todd C.; Chen, Felicia

2015-01-01

We find substantial evidence that environmental filters, rather than TSF, drive the majority of variability in long-term, post-fire vegetation assembly within the Sonoran Desert. Careful consideration of spatial variability in abiotic conditions may benefit post-fire vegetation modelling, as well as fire management and restoration strategies.

Modeling post-wildfire hydrological processes with ParFlow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Escobar, I. S.; Lopez, S. R.; Kinoshita, A. M.

2017-12-01

Wildfires alter the natural processes within a watershed, such as surface runoff, evapotranspiration rates, and subsurface water storage. Post-fire hydrologic models are typically one-dimensional, empirically-based models or two-dimensional, conceptually-based models with lumped parameter distributions. These models are useful for modeling and predictions at the watershed outlet; however, do not provide detailed, distributed hydrologic processes at the point scale within the watershed. This research uses ParFlow, a three-dimensional, distributed hydrologic model to simulate post-fire hydrologic processes by representing the spatial and temporal variability of soil burn severity (via hydrophobicity) and vegetation recovery. Using this approach, we are able to evaluate the change in post-fire water components (surface flow, lateral flow, baseflow, and evapotranspiration). This work builds upon previous field and remote sensing analysis conducted for the 2003 Old Fire Burn in Devil Canyon, located in southern California (USA). This model is initially developed for a hillslope defined by a 500 m by 1000 m lateral extent. The subsurface reaches 12.4 m and is assigned a variable cell thickness to explicitly consider soil burn severity throughout the stages of recovery and vegetation regrowth. We consider four slope and eight hydrophobic layer configurations. Evapotranspiration is used as a proxy for vegetation regrowth and is represented by the satellite-based Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBOP) product. The pre- and post-fire surface runoff, subsurface storage, and surface storage interactions are evaluated at the point scale. Results will be used as a basis for developing and fine-tuning a watershed-scale model. Long-term simulations will advance our understanding of post-fire hydrological partitioning between water balance components and the spatial variability of watershed processes, providing improved guidance for post-fire watershed management. In reference to the presenter, Isabel Escobar: Research is funded by the NASA-DIRECT STEM Program. Travel expenses for this presentation is funded by CSU-LSAMP. CSU-LSAMP is supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant # HRD-1302873 and the CSU Office of Chancellor.

Novel Tools in Determining the Physiological Demands and Nutritional Practices of Ontario FireRangers during Fire Deployments

PubMed Central

Robertson, A. H.; Larivière, C.; Leduc, C. R.; McGillis, Z.; Eger, T.; Godwin, A.; Larivière, M.; Dorman, S. C.

2017-01-01

Introduction The seasonal profession of wildland fire fighting in Canada requires individuals to work in harsh environmental conditions that are physically demanding. The purpose of this study was to use novel technologies to evaluate the physiological demands and nutritional practices of Canadian FireRangers during fire deployments. Methods Participants (n = 21) from a northern Ontario Fire Base volunteered for this study and data collection occurred during the 2014 fire season and included Initial Attack (IA), Project Fire (P), and Fire Base (B) deployments. Deployment-specific energy demands and physiological responses were measured using heart-rate variability (HRV) monitoring devices (Zephyr BioHarness3 units). Food consumption behaviour and nutrient quantity and quality were captured using audio-video food logs on iPod Touches and analyzed by NutriBase Pro 11 software. Results Insufficient kilocalories were consumed relative to expenditure for all deployment types. Average daily kilocalories consumed: IA: 3758 (80% consumption rate); P: 2945±888.8; B: 2433±570.8. Average daily kilocalorie expenditure: IA: 4538±106.3; P: 4012±1164.8; B: 2842±649.9. The Average Macronutrient Distribution Range (AMDR) for protein was acceptable: 22–25% (across deployment types). Whereas the AMDR for fat and carbohydrates were high: 40–50%; and low: 27–37% respectively, across deployment types. Conclusions This study is the first to use the described methodology to simultaneously evaluate energy expenditures and nutritional practices in an occupational setting. The results support the use of HRV monitoring and video-food capture, in occupational field settings, to assess job demands. FireRangers expended the most energy during IA, and the least during B deployments. These results indicate the need to develop strategies centered on maintaining physical fitness and improving food practices. PMID:28107380

Novel Tools in Determining the Physiological Demands and Nutritional Practices of Ontario FireRangers during Fire Deployments.

PubMed

Robertson, A H; Larivière, C; Leduc, C R; McGillis, Z; Eger, T; Godwin, A; Larivière, M; Dorman, S C

2017-01-01

The seasonal profession of wildland fire fighting in Canada requires individuals to work in harsh environmental conditions that are physically demanding. The purpose of this study was to use novel technologies to evaluate the physiological demands and nutritional practices of Canadian FireRangers during fire deployments. Participants (n = 21) from a northern Ontario Fire Base volunteered for this study and data collection occurred during the 2014 fire season and included Initial Attack (IA), Project Fire (P), and Fire Base (B) deployments. Deployment-specific energy demands and physiological responses were measured using heart-rate variability (HRV) monitoring devices (Zephyr BioHarness3 units). Food consumption behaviour and nutrient quantity and quality were captured using audio-video food logs on iPod Touches and analyzed by NutriBase Pro 11 software. Insufficient kilocalories were consumed relative to expenditure for all deployment types. Average daily kilocalories consumed: IA: 3758 (80% consumption rate); P: 2945±888.8; B: 2433±570.8. Average daily kilocalorie expenditure: IA: 4538±106.3; P: 4012±1164.8; B: 2842±649.9. The Average Macronutrient Distribution Range (AMDR) for protein was acceptable: 22-25% (across deployment types). Whereas the AMDR for fat and carbohydrates were high: 40-50%; and low: 27-37% respectively, across deployment types. This study is the first to use the described methodology to simultaneously evaluate energy expenditures and nutritional practices in an occupational setting. The results support the use of HRV monitoring and video-food capture, in occupational field settings, to assess job demands. FireRangers expended the most energy during IA, and the least during B deployments. These results indicate the need to develop strategies centered on maintaining physical fitness and improving food practices.

Variability, trends, and drivers of regional fluctuations in Australian fire activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Earl, Nick; Simmonds, Ian

2017-07-01

Throughout the world fire regimes are determined by climate, vegetation, and anthropogenic factors, and they have great spatial and temporal variability. The availability of high-quality satellite data has revolutionized fire monitoring, allowing for a more consistent and comprehensive evaluation of temporal and spatial patterns. Here we utilize a satellite based "active fire" (AF) product to statistically analyze 2001-2015 variability and trends in Australian fire activity and link this to precipitation and large-scale atmospheric structures (namely, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)) known to have potential for predicting fire activity in different regions. It is found that Australian fire activity is decreasing (during summer (December-February)) or stable, with high temporal and spatial variability. Eastern New South Wales (NSW) has the strongest decreasing trend (to the 1% confidence level), especially during the winter (JJA) season. Other significantly decreasing areas are Victoria/NSW, Tasmania, and South-east Queensland. These decreasing fire regions are relatively highly populated, so we suggest that the declining trends are due to improved fire management, reducing the size and duration of bush fires. Almost half of all Australian AFs occur during spring (September-November). We show that there is considerable potential throughout Australia for a skillful forecast for future season fire activity based on current and previous precipitation activity, ENSO phase, and to a lesser degree, the IOD phase. This is highly variable, depending on location, e.g., the IOD phase is for more indicative of fire activity in southwest Western Australia than for Queensland.

Comparing the Global Charcoal Database with Burned Area Trends from an Offline Fire Model Driven by the NCAR Last Millennium Ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schaefer, A.; Magi, B. I.; Marlon, J. R.; Bartlein, P. J.

2017-12-01

This study uses an offline fire model driven by output from the NCAR Community Earth System Model Last Millennium Ensemble (LME) to evaluate how climate, ecological, and human factors contributed to burned area over the past millennium, and uses the Global Charcoal Database (GCD) record of fire activity as a constraint. The offline fire model is similar to the fire module within the NCAR Community Land Model. The LME experiment includes 13 simulations of the Earth system from 850 CE through 2005 CE, and the fire model simulates burned area using LME climate and vegetation with imposed land use and land cover change. The fire model trends are compared to GCD records of charcoal accumulation rates derived from sediment cores. The comparisons are a way to assess the skill of the fire model, but also set up a methodology to directly test hypotheses of the main drivers of fire patterns over the past millennium. The focus is on regions selected from the GCD with high data density, and that have lake sediment cores that best capture the last millennium. Preliminary results are based on a fire model which excludes burning cropland and pasture land cover types, but this allows some assessment of how climate variability is captured by the fire model. Generally, there is good agreement between modeled burned area trends and fire trends from GCD for many regions of interest, suggesting the strength of climate variability as a control. At the global scale, trends and features are similar from 850 to 1700, which includes the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age. After 1700, the trends significantly deviate, which may be due to non-cultivated land being converted to cultivated. In key regions of high data density in the GCD such as the Western USA, the trends agree from 850 to 1200 but diverge from 1200 to 1300. From 1300 to 1800, the trends show good agreement again. Implementing processes to include burning cultivated land within the fire model is anticipated to improve the agreement, but also to test the sensitivity of models to different drivers of fire.

Spatial and temporal variability in fire occurrence within the Las Bayas Forestry Reserve, Durango, Mexico

Treesearch

S. A. Drury; T. T. Veblen

2008-01-01

Patterns of fire occurrence within the Las Bayas Forestry Reserve, Mexico are analyzed in relation to variability in climate, topography, and human land-use. Significantly more fires with shorter fire return intervals occurred from 1900 to 1950 than from 1950 to 2001. However, the frequency of widespread fire years (25% filter) was unchanged over time, as widespread...

Estimation of Wild Fire Risk Area based on Climate and Maximum Entropy in Korean Peninsular

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, T.; Lim, C. H.; Song, C.; Lee, W. K.

2015-12-01

The number of forest fires and accompanying human injuries and physical damages has been increased by frequent drought. In this study, forest fire danger zone of Korea is estimated to predict and prepare for future forest fire hazard regions. The MaxEnt (Maximum Entropy) model is used to estimate the forest fire hazard region which estimates the probability distribution of the status. The MaxEnt model is primarily for the analysis of species distribution, but its applicability for various natural disasters is getting recognition. The detailed forest fire occurrence data collected by the MODIS for past 5 years (2010-2014) is used as occurrence data for the model. Also meteorology, topography, vegetation data are used as environmental variable. In particular, various meteorological variables are used to check impact of climate such as annual average temperature, annual precipitation, precipitation of dry season, annual effective humidity, effective humidity of dry season, aridity index. Consequently, the result was valid based on the AUC(Area Under the Curve) value (= 0.805) which is used to predict accuracy in the MaxEnt model. Also predicted forest fire locations were practically corresponded with the actual forest fire distribution map. Meteorological variables such as effective humidity showed the greatest contribution, and topography variables such as TWI (Topographic Wetness Index) and slope also contributed on the forest fire. As a result, the east coast and the south part of Korea peninsula were predicted to have high risk on the forest fire. In contrast, high-altitude mountain area and the west coast appeared to be safe with the forest fire. The result of this study is similar with former studies, which indicates high risks of forest fire in accessible area and reflects climatic characteristics of east and south part in dry season. To sum up, we estimated the forest fire hazard zone with existing forest fire locations and environment variables and had meaningful result with artificial and natural effect. It is expected to predict future forest fire risk with future climate variables as the climate changes.

Human influence on California fire regimes.

PubMed

Syphard, Alexandra D; Radeloff, Volker C; Keeley, Jon E; Hawbaker, Todd J; Clayton, Murray K; Stewart, Susan I; Hammer, Roger B

2007-07-01

Periodic wildfire maintains the integrity and species composition of many ecosystems, including the mediterranean-climate shrublands of California. However, human activities alter natural fire regimes, which can lead to cascading ecological effects. Increased human ignitions at the wildland-urban interface (WUI) have recently gained attention, but fire activity and risk are typically estimated using only biophysical variables. Our goal was to determine how humans influence fire in California and to examine whether this influence was linear, by relating contemporary (2000) and historic (1960-2000) fire data to both human and biophysical variables. Data for the human variables included fine-resolution maps of the WUI produced using housing density and land cover data. Interface WUI, where development abuts wildland vegetation, was differentiated from intermix WUI, where development intermingles with wildland vegetation. Additional explanatory variables included distance to WUI, population density, road density, vegetation type, and ecoregion. All data were summarized at the county level and analyzed using bivariate and multiple regression methods. We found highly significant relationships between humans and fire on the contemporary landscape, and our models explained fire frequency (R2 = 0.72) better than area burned (R2 = 0.50). Population density, intermix WUI, and distance to WUI explained the most variability in fire frequency, suggesting that the spatial pattern of development may be an important variable to consider when estimating fire risk. We found nonlinear effects such that fire frequency and area burned were highest at intermediate levels of human activity, but declined beyond certain thresholds. Human activities also explained change in fire frequency and area burned (1960-2000), but our models had greater explanatory power during the years 1960-1980, when there was more dramatic change in fire frequency. Understanding wildfire as a function of the spatial arrangement of ignitions and fuels on the landscape, in addition to nonlinear relationships, will be important to fire managers and conservation planners because fire risk may be related to specific levels of housing density that can be accounted for in land use planning. With more fires occurring in close proximity to human infrastructure, there may also be devastating ecological impacts if development continues to grow farther into wildland vegetation.

Human influence on California fire regimes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Syphard, A.D.; Radeloff, V.C.; Keeley, J.E.; Hawbaker, T.J.; Clayton, M.K.; Stewart, S.I.; Hammer, R.B.

2007-01-01

Periodic wildfire maintains the integrity and species composition of many ecosystems, including the mediterranean-climate shrublands of California. However, human activities alter natural fire regimes, which can lead to cascading ecological effects. Increased human ignitions at the wildland-urban interface (WUI) have recently gained attention, but fire activity and risk are typically estimated using only biophysical variables. Our goal was to determine how humans influence fire in California and to examine whether this influence was linear, by relating contemporary (2000) and historic (1960-2000) fire data to both human and biophysical variables. Data for the human variables included fine-resolution maps of the WUI produced using housing density and land cover data. Interface WUI, where development abuts wildland vegetation, was differentiated from intermix WUI, where development intermingles with wildland vegetation. Additional explanatory variables included distance to WUI, population density, road density, vegetation type, and ecoregion. All data were summarized at the county level and analyzed using bivariate and multiple regression methods. We found highly significant relationships between humans and fire on the contemporary landscape, and our models explained fire frequency (R2 = 0.72) better than area burned (R2 = 0.50). Population density, intermix WUI, and distance to WUI explained the most variability in fire frequency, suggesting that the spatial pattern of development may be an important variable to consider when estimating fire risk. We found nonlinear effects such that fire frequency and area burned were highest at intermediate levels of human activity, but declined beyond certain thresholds. Human activities also explained change in fire frequency and area burned (1960-2000), but our models had greater explanatory power during the years 1960-1980, when there was more dramatic change in fire frequency. Understanding wildfire as a function of the spatial arrangement of ignitions and fuels on the landscape, in addition to nonlinear relationships, will be important to fire managers and conservation planners because fire risk may be related to specific levels of housing density that can be accounted for in land use planning. With more fires occurring in close proximity to human infrastructure, there may also be devastating ecological impacts if development continues to grow farther into wildland vegetation. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

Identifying the controls of wildfire activity in Namibia using multivariate statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mayr, Manuel; Le Roux, Johan; Samimi, Cyrus

2015-04-01

Despite large areas of Namibia being unaffected by fires due to aridity, substantial burning in the northern and north-eastern parts of the country is observed every year. Within the fire-affected regions, a strong spatial and inter-annual variability characterizes the dry-season fire situation. In order to understand these patterns, it appears critical to identify the causative factors behind fire occurrence and to examine their interactions in detail. Furthermore, most studies dealing with causative factor examination focus either on the local or the regional scale. However, these scales seem to be inappropriate from a management perspective, as fire-related strategic action plans are most often set up nationwide. Here, we will present an examination of the fire regimes of Namibia based on a dataset conducted by Le Roux (2011). A decade-spanning fire record (1994-2003) derived from NOAA's Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) imagery was used to generate four fire regime metrics (Burned Area, Fire Season Length, Month of Peak Fire Season, and Fire Return Period) and quantitative information on vegetation and phenology derived from Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series. Further variables contained by this dataset are related to climate, biodiversity, and human activities. Le Roux (2011) analyzed the correlations between the fire metrics mentioned above and the predictor variables. We hypothesize that linear correlations (as estimated by correlation coefficients) simplify the interactions between response and predictor variables. For instance, moderate population densities could induce the highest number of fires, whereas the complete absence of humans lacks one major source of ignition. Around highly populated areas, in contrary, fuels are usually reduced and space is more fragmented - thus, the initiation and spread of a potential fire could as well be inhibited. From a total of over 40 explanatory variables, we will initially use data mining techniques to select a conceivable set of variables by their explanatory value and to remove redundancy. We will then apply two multivariate statistical methods suitable to a large variety of data types and frequently used for (non-linear) causative factor identification: Non-metric Multidimensional Scaling (NMDS) and Regression Trees. The assumed value of these analyses is i) to determine the most important predictor variables of fire activity in Namibia, ii) to decipher their complex interactions in driving fire variability in Namibia, and iii) to compare the performance of two state-of-the-art statistical methods. References: Le Roux, J. (2011): The effect of land use practices on the spatial and temporal characteristics of savanna fires in Namibia. Doctoral thesis at the University of Erlangen-Nuremberg/Germany - 155 pages.

Modelling long-term fire occurrence factors in Spain by accounting for local variations with geographically weighted regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martínez-Fernández, J.; Chuvieco, E.; Koutsias, N.

2013-02-01

Humans are responsible for most forest fires in Europe, but anthropogenic factors behind these events are still poorly understood. We tried to identify the driving factors of human-caused fire occurrence in Spain by applying two different statistical approaches. Firstly, assuming stationary processes for the whole country, we created models based on multiple linear regression and binary logistic regression to find factors associated with fire density and fire presence, respectively. Secondly, we used geographically weighted regression (GWR) to better understand and explore the local and regional variations of those factors behind human-caused fire occurrence. The number of human-caused fires occurring within a 25-yr period (1983-2007) was computed for each of the 7638 Spanish mainland municipalities, creating a binary variable (fire/no fire) to develop logistic models, and a continuous variable (fire density) to build standard linear regression models. A total of 383 657 fires were registered in the study dataset. The binary logistic model, which estimates the probability of having/not having a fire, successfully classified 76.4% of the total observations, while the ordinary least squares (OLS) regression model explained 53% of the variation of the fire density patterns (adjusted R2 = 0.53). Both approaches confirmed, in addition to forest and climatic variables, the importance of variables related with agrarian activities, land abandonment, rural population exodus and developmental processes as underlying factors of fire occurrence. For the GWR approach, the explanatory power of the GW linear model for fire density using an adaptive bandwidth increased from 53% to 67%, while for the GW logistic model the correctly classified observations improved only slightly, from 76.4% to 78.4%, but significantly according to the corrected Akaike Information Criterion (AICc), from 3451.19 to 3321.19. The results from GWR indicated a significant spatial variation in the local parameter estimates for all the variables and an important reduction of the autocorrelation in the residuals of the GW linear model. Despite the fitting improvement of local models, GW regression, more than an alternative to "global" or traditional regression modelling, seems to be a valuable complement to explore the non-stationary relationships between the response variable and the explanatory variables. The synergy of global and local modelling provides insights into fire management and policy and helps further our understanding of the fire problem over large areas while at the same time recognizing its local character.

ERMiT: Estimating Post-Fire Erosion in Probabilistic Terms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pierson, F. B.; Robichaud, P. R.; Elliot, W. J.; Hall, D. E.; Moffet, C. A.

2006-12-01

Mitigating the impact of post-wildfire runoff and erosion on life, property, and natural resources have cost the United States government tens of millions of dollars over the past decade. The decision of where, when, and how to apply the most effective mitigation treatments requires land managers to assess the risk of damaging runoff and erosion events occurring after a fire. The Erosion Risk Management Tool (ERMiT) is a web-based application that estimates erosion in probabilistic terms on burned and recovering forest, range, and chaparral lands. Unlike most erosion prediction models, ERMiT does not provide `average annual erosion rates;' rather, it provides a distribution of erosion rates with the likelihood of their occurrence. ERMiT combines rain event variability with spatial and temporal variabilities of hillslope burn severity, soil properties, and ground cover to estimate Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model input parameter values. Based on 20 to 40 individual WEPP runs, ERMiT produces a distribution of rain event erosion rates with a probability of occurrence for each of five post-fire years. Over the 5 years of modeled recovery, the occurrence probability of the less erodible soil parameters is increased and the occurrence probability of the more erodible soil parameters is decreased. In addition, the occurrence probabilities and the four spatial arrangements of burn severity (arrangements of overland flow elements (OFE's)), are shifted toward lower burn severity with each year of recovery. These yearly adjustments are based on field measurements made through post-fire recovery periods. ERMiT also provides rain event erosion rate distributions for hillslopes that have been treated with seeding, straw mulch, straw wattles and contour-felled log erosion barriers. Such output can help managers make erosion mitigation treatment decisions based on the probability of high sediment yields occurring, the value of resources at risk for damage, cost, and other management considerations.

Extreme Fire Severity Patterns in Topographic, Convective and Wind-Driven Historical Wildfires of Mediterranean Pine Forests

PubMed Central

Lecina-Diaz, Judit; Alvarez, Albert; Retana, Javier

2014-01-01

Crown fires associated with extreme fire severity are extremely difficult to control. We have assessed fire severity using differenced Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR) from Landsat imagery in 15 historical wildfires of Pinus halepensis Mill. We have considered a wide range of innovative topographic, fuel and fire behavior variables with the purposes of (1) determining the variables that influence fire severity patterns among fires (considering the 15 wildfires together) and (2) ascertaining whether different variables affect extreme fire severity within the three fire types (topographic, convective and wind-driven fires). The among-fires analysis showed that fires in less arid climates and with steeper slopes had more extreme severity. In less arid conditions there was more crown fuel accumulation and closer forest structures, promoting high vertical and horizontal fuel continuity and extreme fire severity. The analyses carried out for each fire separately (within fires) showed more extreme fire severity in areas in northern aspects, with steeper slopes, with high crown biomass and in climates with more water availability. In northern aspects solar radiation was lower and fuels had less water limitation to growth which, combined with steeper slopes, produced more extreme severity. In topographic fires there was more extreme severity in northern aspects with steeper slopes and in areas with more water availability and high crown biomass; in convection-dominated fires there was also more extreme fire severity in northern aspects with high biomass; while in wind-driven fires there was only a slight interaction between biomass and water availability. This latter pattern could be related to the fact that wind-driven fires spread with high wind speed, which could have minimized the effect of other variables. In the future, and as a consequence of climate change, new zones with high crown biomass accumulated in non-common drought areas will be available to burn as extreme severity wildfires. PMID:24465492

Extreme fire severity patterns in topographic, convective and wind-driven historical wildfires of Mediterranean pine forests.

PubMed

Lecina-Diaz, Judit; Alvarez, Albert; Retana, Javier

2014-01-01

Crown fires associated with extreme fire severity are extremely difficult to control. We have assessed fire severity using differenced Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR) from Landsat imagery in 15 historical wildfires of Pinus halepensis Mill. We have considered a wide range of innovative topographic, fuel and fire behavior variables with the purposes of (1) determining the variables that influence fire severity patterns among fires (considering the 15 wildfires together) and (2) ascertaining whether different variables affect extreme fire severity within the three fire types (topographic, convective and wind-driven fires). The among-fires analysis showed that fires in less arid climates and with steeper slopes had more extreme severity. In less arid conditions there was more crown fuel accumulation and closer forest structures, promoting high vertical and horizontal fuel continuity and extreme fire severity. The analyses carried out for each fire separately (within fires) showed more extreme fire severity in areas in northern aspects, with steeper slopes, with high crown biomass and in climates with more water availability. In northern aspects solar radiation was lower and fuels had less water limitation to growth which, combined with steeper slopes, produced more extreme severity. In topographic fires there was more extreme severity in northern aspects with steeper slopes and in areas with more water availability and high crown biomass; in convection-dominated fires there was also more extreme fire severity in northern aspects with high biomass; while in wind-driven fires there was only a slight interaction between biomass and water availability. This latter pattern could be related to the fact that wind-driven fires spread with high wind speed, which could have minimized the effect of other variables. In the future, and as a consequence of climate change, new zones with high crown biomass accumulated in non-common drought areas will be available to burn as extreme severity wildfires.

Numerical investigation of aggregated fuel spatial pattern impacts on fire behavior

DOE PAGES

Parsons, Russell A.; Linn, Rodman Ray; Pimont, Francois; ...

2017-06-18

Here, landscape heterogeneity shapes species distributions, interactions, and fluctuations. Historically, in dry forest ecosystems, low canopy cover and heterogeneous fuel patterns often moderated disturbances like fire. Over the last century, however, increases in canopy cover and more homogeneous patterns have contributed to altered fire regimes with higher fire severity. Fire management strategies emphasize increasing within-stand heterogeneity with aggregated fuel patterns to alter potential fire behavior. Yet, little is known about how such patterns may affect fire behavior, or how sensitive fire behavior changes from fuel patterns are to winds and canopy cover. Here, we used a physics-based fire behavior model,more » FIRETEC, to explore the impacts of spatially aggregated fuel patterns on the mean and variability of stand-level fire behavior, and to test sensitivity of these effects to wind and canopy cover. Qualitative and quantitative approaches suggest that spatial fuel patterns can significantly affect fire behavior. Based on our results we propose three hypotheses: (1) aggregated spatial fuel patterns primarily affect fire behavior by increasing variability; (2) this variability should increase with spatial scale of aggregation; and (3) fire behavior sensitivity to spatial pattern effects should be more pronounced under moderate wind and fuel conditions.« less

Numerical investigation of aggregated fuel spatial pattern impacts on fire behavior

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Parsons, Russell A.; Linn, Rodman Ray; Pimont, Francois

Here, landscape heterogeneity shapes species distributions, interactions, and fluctuations. Historically, in dry forest ecosystems, low canopy cover and heterogeneous fuel patterns often moderated disturbances like fire. Over the last century, however, increases in canopy cover and more homogeneous patterns have contributed to altered fire regimes with higher fire severity. Fire management strategies emphasize increasing within-stand heterogeneity with aggregated fuel patterns to alter potential fire behavior. Yet, little is known about how such patterns may affect fire behavior, or how sensitive fire behavior changes from fuel patterns are to winds and canopy cover. Here, we used a physics-based fire behavior model,more » FIRETEC, to explore the impacts of spatially aggregated fuel patterns on the mean and variability of stand-level fire behavior, and to test sensitivity of these effects to wind and canopy cover. Qualitative and quantitative approaches suggest that spatial fuel patterns can significantly affect fire behavior. Based on our results we propose three hypotheses: (1) aggregated spatial fuel patterns primarily affect fire behavior by increasing variability; (2) this variability should increase with spatial scale of aggregation; and (3) fire behavior sensitivity to spatial pattern effects should be more pronounced under moderate wind and fuel conditions.« less

Analysis of hospital admissions due to accidental non-fire-related carbon monoxide poisoning in England, between 2001 and 2010

PubMed Central

Ghosh, Rebecca E.; Close, Rebecca; McCann, Lucy J.; Crabbe, Helen; Garwood, Kevin; Hansell, Anna L.; Leonardi, Giovanni

2016-01-01

Background Accidental non-fire-related (ANFR) carbon monoxide (CO) poisoning is a cause of fatalities and hospital admissions. This is the first study that describes the characteristics of ANFR CO hospital admissions in England. Methods Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) inpatient data for England between 2001 and 2010 were used. ANFR CO poisoning admissions were defined as any mention of ICD-10 code T58: toxic effect of CO and X47: accidental poisoning by gases or vapours, excluding ICD-10 codes potentially related to fires (X00-X09, T20-T32 and Y26). Results There were 2463 ANFR CO admissions over the 10-year period (annual rate: 0.49/100 000); these comprised just under half (48.7%) of all non-fire-related (accidental and non-accidental) CO admissions. There was seasonal variability, with more admissions in colder winter months. Higher admission rates were observed in the north of England. Just over half (53%) of ANFR admissions were male, and the highest rates of ANFR admissions were in those aged >80 years. Conclusion The burden of ANFR CO poisoning is preventable. The results of this study suggest an appreciable burden of CO and highlight differences that may aid targeting of public health interventions. PMID:25755248

Correlated physiological and perceptual effects of noise in a tactile stimulus.

PubMed

Lak, Armin; Arabzadeh, Ehsan; Harris, Justin A; Diamond, Mathew E

2010-04-27

We investigated connections between the physiology of rat barrel cortex neurons and the sensation of vibration in humans. One set of experiments measured neuronal responses in anesthetized rats to trains of whisker deflections, each train characterized either by constant amplitude across all deflections or by variable amplitude ("amplitude noise"). Firing rate and firing synchrony were, on average, boosted by the presence of noise. However, neurons were not uniform in their responses to noise. Barrel cortex neurons have been categorized as regular-spiking units (putative excitatory neurons) and fast-spiking units (putative inhibitory neurons). Among regular-spiking units, amplitude noise caused a higher firing rate and increased cross-neuron synchrony. Among fast-spiking units, noise had the opposite effect: It led to a lower firing rate and decreased cross-neuron synchrony. This finding suggests that amplitude noise affects the interaction between inhibitory and excitatory neurons. From these physiological effects, we expected that noise would lead to an increase in the perceived intensity of a vibration. We tested this notion using psychophysical measurements in humans. As predicted, subjects overestimated the intensity of noisy vibrations. Thus the physiological mechanisms present in barrel cortex also appear to be at work in the human tactile system, where they affect vibration perception.

Factors affecting collective action for forest fire management: a comparative study of community forest user groups in central Siwalik, Nepal.

PubMed

Sapkota, Lok Mani; Shrestha, Rajendra Prasad; Jourdain, Damien; Shivakoti, Ganesh P

2015-01-01

The attributes of social ecological systems affect the management of commons. Strengthening and enhancing social capital and the enforcement of rules and sanctions aid in the collective action of communities in forest fire management. Using a set of variables drawn from previous studies on the management of commons, we conducted a study across 20 community forest user groups in Central Siwalik, Nepal, by dividing the groups into two categories based on the type and level of their forest fire management response. Our study shows that the collective action in forest fire management is consistent with the collective actions in other community development activities. However, the effectiveness of collective action is primarily dependent on the complex interaction of various variables. We found that strong social capital, strong enforcement of rules and sanctions, and users' participation in crafting the rules were the major variables that strengthen collective action in forest fire management. Conversely, users' dependency on a daily wage and a lack of transparency were the variables that weaken collective action. In fire-prone forests such as the Siwalik, our results indicate that strengthening social capital and forming and enforcing forest fire management rules are important variables that encourage people to engage in collective action in fire management.

Cellular mechanisms underlying behavioral state-dependent bidirectional modulation of motor cortex output.

PubMed

Schiemann, Julia; Puggioni, Paolo; Dacre, Joshua; Pelko, Miha; Domanski, Aleksander; van Rossum, Mark C W; Duguid, Ian

2015-05-26

Neuronal activity in primary motor cortex (M1) correlates with behavioral state, but the cellular mechanisms underpinning behavioral state-dependent modulation of M1 output remain largely unresolved. Here, we performed in vivo patch-clamp recordings from layer 5B (L5B) pyramidal neurons in awake mice during quiet wakefulness and self-paced, voluntary movement. We show that L5B output neurons display bidirectional (i.e., enhanced or suppressed) firing rate changes during movement, mediated via two opposing subthreshold mechanisms: (1) a global decrease in membrane potential variability that reduced L5B firing rates (L5Bsuppressed neurons), and (2) a coincident noradrenaline-mediated increase in excitatory drive to a subpopulation of L5B neurons (L5Benhanced neurons) that elevated firing rates. Blocking noradrenergic receptors in forelimb M1 abolished the bidirectional modulation of M1 output during movement and selectively impaired contralateral forelimb motor coordination. Together, our results provide a mechanism for how noradrenergic neuromodulation and network-driven input changes bidirectionally modulate M1 output during motor behavior. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Aboveground carbon sequestration in dry temperate forests varies with climate not fire regime.

PubMed

Gordon, Christopher E; Bendall, Eli R; Stares, Mitchell G; Collins, Luke; Bradstock, Ross A

2018-06-01

The storage of carbon in plant tissues and debris has been proposed as a method to offset anthropogenic increases in atmospheric [CO 2 ]. Temperate forests represent significant above-ground carbon (AGC) "sinks" because their relatively fast growth and slow decay rates optimise carbon assimilation. Fire is a common disturbance event in temperate forests globally that should strongly influence AGC because: discrete fires consume above-ground biomass releasing carbon to the atmosphere, and the long-term application of different fire-regimes select for specific plant communities that sequester carbon at different rates. We investigated the latter process by quantifying AGC storage at 104 sites in the Sydney Basin Bioregion, Australia, relative to differences in components of the fire regime: frequency, severity and interfire interval. To predict the potential impacts of future climate change on fire/AGC interactions, we stratified our field sites across gradients of mean annual temperature and precipitation and quantified within- and between-factor interactions between the fire and climate variables. In agreement with previous studies, large trees were the primary AGC sink, accounting for ~70% of carbon at sites. Generalised additive models showed that mean annual temperature was the strongest predictor of AGC storage, with a 54% near-linear decrease predicted across the 6.1°C temperature range experienced at sites. Mean annual precipitation, fire frequency, fire severity and interfire interval were consistently poor predictors of total above-ground storage, although there were some significant relationships with component stocks. Our results show resilience of AGC to frequent and severe wildfire and suggest temperature mediated decreases in forest carbon storage under future climate change predictions. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Human and biophysical factors influencing modern fire disturbance in northern Wisconsin

Treesearch

Brian R. Sturtevant; David T. Cleland

2007-01-01

Humans cause most wildfires in northern Wisconsin, but interactions between human and biophysical variables affecting fire starts and size are not well understood. We applied classification tree analyses to a 16-year fire database from northern Wisconsin to evaluate the relative importance of human v. biophysical variables affecting fire occurrence within (1) all cover...

BehavePlus fire modeling system, version 5.0: Variables

Treesearch

Patricia L. Andrews

2009-01-01

This publication has been revised to reflect updates to version 4.0 of the BehavePlus software. It was originally published as the BehavePlus fire modeling system, version 4.0: Variables in July, 2008.The BehavePlus fire modeling system is a computer program based on mathematical models that describe wildland fire behavior and effects and the...

Uncertainty in Wildfire Behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Finney, M.; Cohen, J. D.

2013-12-01

The challenge of predicting or modeling fire behavior is well recognized by scientists and managers who attempt predictions of fire spread rate or growth. At the scale of the spreading fire, the uncertainty in winds, moisture, fuel structure, and fire location make accurate predictions difficult, and the non-linear response of fire spread to these conditions means that average behavior is poorly represented by average environmental parameters. Even more difficult are estimations of threshold behaviors (e.g. spread/no-spread, crown fire initiation, ember generation and spotting) because the fire responds as a step-function to small changes in one or more environmental variables, translating to dynamical feedbacks and unpredictability. Recent research shows that ignition of fuel particles, itself a threshold phenomenon, depends on flame contact which is absolutely not steady or uniform. Recent studies of flame structure in both spreading and stationary fires reveals that much of the non-steadiness of the flames as they contact fuel particles results from buoyant instabilities that produce quasi-periodic flame structures. With fuel particle ignition produced by time-varying heating and short-range flame contact, future improvements in fire behavior modeling will likely require statistical approaches to deal with the uncertainty at all scales, including the level of heat transfer, the fuel arrangement, and weather.

A new technique for fire risk estimation in the wildland urban interface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dasgupta, S.; Qu, J. J.; Hao, X.

A novel technique based on the physical variable of pre-ignition energy is proposed for assessing fire risk in the Grassland-Urban-Interface The physical basis lends meaning a site and season independent applicability possibilities for computing spread rates and ignition probabilities features contemporary fire risk indices usually lack The method requires estimates of grass moisture content and temperature A constrained radiative-transfer inversion scheme on MODIS NIR-SWIR reflectances which reduces solution ambiguity is used for grass moisture retrieval while MODIS land surface temperature emissivity products are used for retrieving grass temperature Subpixel urban contamination of the MODIS reflective and thermal signals over a Grassland-Urban-Interface pixel is corrected using periodic estimates of urban influence from high spatial resolution ASTER

Fire history and fire-climate relationships in upper elevation forests of the southwestern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Margolis, Ellis Quinn

Fire history and fire-climate relationships of upper elevation forests of the southwestern United States are imperative for informing management decisions in the face of increased crown fire occurrence and climate change. I used dendroecological techniques to reconstruct fires and stand-replacing fire patch size in the Madrean Sky Islands and Mogollon Plateau. Reconstructed patch size (1685-1904) was compared with contemporary patch size (1996-2004). Reconstructed fires at three sites had stand-replacing patches totaling > 500 ha. No historical stand-replacing fire patches were evident in the mixed conifer/aspen forests of the Sky Islands. Maximum stand-replacing fire patch size of modern fires (1129 ha) was greater than that reconstructed from aspen (286 ha) and spruce-fir (521 ha). Undated spruce-fir patches may be evidence of larger (>2000ha) stand-replacing fire patches. To provide climatological context for fire history I used correlation and regionalization analyses to document spatial and temporal variability in climate regions, and El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) teleconnections using 273 tree-ring chronologies (1732-1979). Four regions were determined by common variability in annual ring width. The component score time series replicate spatial variability in 20th century droughts (e.g., 1950's) and pluvials (e.g., 1910's). Two regions were significantly correlated with instrumental SOI and AMO, and three with PDO. Sub-regions within the southwestern U.S. varied geographically between the instrumental (1900-1979) and the pre-instrumental periods (1732-1899). Mapped correlations between ENSO, PDO and AMO, and tree-ring indices illustrate detailed sub-regional variability in the teleconnections. I analyzed climate teleconnections, and fire-climate relationships of historical upper elevation fires from 16 sites in 8 mountain ranges. I tested for links between Palmer Drought Severity Index and tree-ring reconstructed ENSO, PDO and AMO phases (1905-1978 and 1700-1904). Upper elevation fires (115 fires, 84 fire years, 1623-1904) were compared with climate indices. ENSO, PDO, and AMO affected regional PDSI, but AMO and PDO teleconnections changed between periods. Fire occurrence was significantly related to inter-annual variability in PDSI, precipitation, ENSO, and phase combinations of ENSO and PDO, but not AMO (1700-1904). Reduced upper elevation fire (1785-1840) was coincident with a cool AMO phase.

Static and dynamic controls on fire activity at moderate spatial and temporal scales in the Alaskan boreal forest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barrett, Kirsten; Loboda, Tatiana; McGuire, A. David; Genet, Hélène; Hoy, Elizabeth; Kasischke, Eric

2016-01-01

Wildfire, a dominant disturbance in boreal forests, is highly variable in occurrence and behavior at multiple spatiotemporal scales. New data sets provide more detailed spatial and temporal observations of active fires and the post-burn environment in Alaska. In this study, we employ some of these new data to analyze variations in fire activity by developing three explanatory models to examine the occurrence of (1) seasonal periods of elevated fire activity using the number of MODIS active fire detections data set (MCD14DL) within an 11-day moving window, (2) unburned patches within a burned area using the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity fire severity product, and (3) short-to-moderate interval (<60 yr) fires using areas of burned area overlap in the Alaska Large Fire Database. Explanatory variables for these three models included dynamic variables that can change over the course of the fire season, such as weather and burn date, as well as static variables that remain constant over a fire season, such as topography, drainage, vegetation cover, and fire history. We found that seasonal periods of high fire activity are associated with both seasonal timing and aggregated weather conditions, as well as the landscape composition of areas that are burning. Important static inputs to the model of seasonal fire activity indicate that when fire weather conditions are suitable, areas that typically resist fire (e.g., deciduous stands) may become more vulnerable to burning and therefore less effective as fire breaks. The occurrence of short-to-moderate interval fires appears to be primarily driven by weather conditions, as these were the only relevant explanatory variables in the model. The unique importance of weather in explaining short-to-moderate interval fires implies that fire return intervals (FRIs) will be sensitive to projected climate changes in the region. Unburned patches occur most often in younger stands, which may be related to a greater deciduous fraction of vegetation as well as lower fuel loads compared with mature stands. The fraction of unburned patches may therefore increase in response to decreasing FRIs and increased deciduousness in the region, or these may decrease if fire weather conditions become more severe.

Single motor unit firing rate after stroke is higher on the less-affected side during stable low-level voluntary contractions

PubMed Central

McNulty, Penelope A.; Lin, Gaven; Doust, Catherine G.

2014-01-01

Muscle weakness is the most common outcome after stroke and a leading cause of adult-acquired motor disability. Single motor unit properties provide insight into the mechanisms of post-stroke motor impairment. Motor units on the more-affected side are reported to have lower peak firing rates, reduced discharge variability and a more compressed dynamic range than healthy subjects. The activity of 169 motor units was discriminated from surface electromyography in 28 stroke patients during sustained voluntary contractions 10% of maximal and compared to 110 units recorded in 16 healthy subjects. Motor units were recorded in three series: ankle dorsiflexion, wrist flexion and elbow flexion. Mean firing rates after stroke were significantly lower on the more-affected than the less-affected side (p < 0.001) with no differences between dominant and non-dominant sides for healthy subjects. When data were combined, firing rates on the less-affected side were significantly higher than those either on the more-affected side or healthy subjects (p < 0.001). Motor unit mean firing rate was higher in the upper-limb than the lower-limb (p < 0.05). The coefficient of variation of motor unit discharge rate was lower for motor units after stroke compared to controls for wrist flexion (p < 0.05) but not ankle dorsiflexion. However the dynamic range of motor units was compressed only for motor units on the more-affected side during wrist flexion. Our results show that the pathological change in motor unit firing rate occurs on the less-affected side after stroke and not the more-affected side as previously reported, and suggest that motor unit behavior recorded in a single muscle after stroke cannot be generalized to muscles acting on other joints even within the same limb. These data emphasize that the less-affected side does not provide a valid control for physiological studies on the more-affected side after stroke and that both sides should be compared to data from age- and sex-matched healthy subjects. PMID:25100969

A comparison of charcoal measurements for reconstruction of Mediterranean paleo-fire frequency in the mountains of Corsica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leys, Bérangère; Carcaillet, Christopher; Dezileau, Laurent; Ali, Adam A.; Bradshaw, Richard H. W.

2013-05-01

Fire-history reconstructions inferred from sedimentary charcoal records are based on measuring sieved charcoal fragment area, estimating fragment volume, or counting fragments. Similar fire histories are reconstructed from these three approaches for boreal lake sediment cores, using locally defined thresholds. Here, we test the same approach for a montane Mediterranean lake in which taphonomical processes might differ from boreal lakes through fragmentation of charcoal particles. The Mediterranean charcoal series are characterized by highly variable charcoal accumulation rates. Results there indicate that the three proxies do not provide comparable fire histories. The differences are attributable to charcoal fragmentation. This could be linked to fire type (crown or surface fires) or taphonomical processes, including charcoal transportation in the catchment area or in the sediment. The lack of correlation between the concentration of charcoal and of mineral matter suggests that fragmentation is not linked to erosion. Reconstructions based on charcoal area are more robust and stable than those based on fragment counts. Area-based reconstructions should therefore be used instead of the particle-counting method when fragmentation may influence the fragment abundance.

Designing fire safe interiors.

PubMed

Belles, D W

1992-01-01

Any product that causes a fire to grow large is deficient in fire safety performance. A large fire in any building represents a serious hazard. Multiple-death fires almost always are linked to fires that grow quickly to a large size. Interior finishes have large, continuous surfaces over which fire can spread. They are regulated to slow initial fire growth, and must be qualified for use on the basis of fire tests. To obtain meaningful results, specimens must be representative of actual installation. Variables--such as the substrate, the adhesive, and product thickness and density--can affect product performance. The tunnel test may not adequately evaluate some products, such as foam plastics or textile wall coverings, thermoplastic materials, or materials of minimal mass. Where questions exist, products should be evaluated on a full-scale basis. Curtains and draperies are examples of products that ignite easily and spread flames readily. The present method for testing curtains and draperies evaluates one fabric at a time. Although a fabric tested alone may perform well, fabrics that meet test standards individually sometimes perform poorly when tested in combination. Contents and furnishings constitute the major fuels in many fires. Contents may involve paper products and other lightweight materials that are easily ignited and capable of fast fire growth. Similarly, a small source may ignite many items of furniture that are capable of sustained fire growth. Upholstered furniture can reach peak burning rates in less than 5 minutes. Furnishings have been associated with many multiple-death fires.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Environmental and climatic variables as potential drivers of post-fire cover of cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) in seeded and unseeded semiarid ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shinneman, D.J.; Baker, W.L.

2009-01-01

Cheatgrass, a non-native annual grass, dominates millions of hectares in semiarid ecosystems of the Intermountain West (USA). Post-fire invasions can reduce native species diversity and alter ecological processes. To curb cheatgrass invasion, land managers often seed recently burned areas with perennial competitor species. We sampled vegetation within burned (19 years post-fire) and nearby unburned (representing pre-fire) pionjuniper (Pinus edulisJuniperus osteosperma) woodland and sagebrush (Artemisia sp.) in western Colorado to analyze variables that might explain cheatgrass cover after fire. A multiple regression model suggests higher cheatgrass cover after fire with: (1) sagebrush v. pionjuniper; (2) higher pre-fire cover of annual forbs; (3) increased time since fire; (4) lower pre-fire cover of biological soil crust; and (5) lower precipitation the year before fire. Time since fire, which coincided with higher precipitation, accounts for most of the variability in cheatgrass cover. No significant difference was found in mean cheatgrass cover between seeded and unseeded plots over time. However, negative relationships with pre-fire biological soil crust cover and native species richness suggest livestock-degraded areas are more susceptible to post-fire invasion. Proactive strategies for combating cheatgrass should include finding effective native competitors and restoring livestock-degraded areas. ?? 2009 IAWF.

A data-driven approach to identify controls on global fire activity from satellite and climate observations (SOFIA V1)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forkel, Matthias; Dorigo, Wouter; Lasslop, Gitta; Teubner, Irene; Chuvieco, Emilio; Thonicke, Kirsten

2017-12-01

Vegetation fires affect human infrastructures, ecosystems, global vegetation distribution, and atmospheric composition. However, the climatic, environmental, and socioeconomic factors that control global fire activity in vegetation are only poorly understood, and in various complexities and formulations are represented in global process-oriented vegetation-fire models. Data-driven model approaches such as machine learning algorithms have successfully been used to identify and better understand controlling factors for fire activity. However, such machine learning models cannot be easily adapted or even implemented within process-oriented global vegetation-fire models. To overcome this gap between machine learning-based approaches and process-oriented global fire models, we introduce a new flexible data-driven fire modelling approach here (Satellite Observations to predict FIre Activity, SOFIA approach version 1). SOFIA models can use several predictor variables and functional relationships to estimate burned area that can be easily adapted with more complex process-oriented vegetation-fire models. We created an ensemble of SOFIA models to test the importance of several predictor variables. SOFIA models result in the highest performance in predicting burned area if they account for a direct restriction of fire activity under wet conditions and if they include a land cover-dependent restriction or allowance of fire activity by vegetation density and biomass. The use of vegetation optical depth data from microwave satellite observations, a proxy for vegetation biomass and water content, reaches higher model performance than commonly used vegetation variables from optical sensors. We further analyse spatial patterns of the sensitivity between anthropogenic, climate, and vegetation predictor variables and burned area. We finally discuss how multiple observational datasets on climate, hydrological, vegetation, and socioeconomic variables together with data-driven modelling and model-data integration approaches can guide the future development of global process-oriented vegetation-fire models.

Numerical modeling of the effects of fire-induced convection and fire-atmosphere interactions on wildfire spread and fire plume dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Ruiyu

It is possible due to present day computing power to produce a fluid dynamical physically-based numerical solution to wildfire behavior, at least in the research mode. This type of wildfire modeling affords a flexibility and produces details that are not available in either current operational wildfire behavior models or field experiments. However before using these models to study wildfire, validation is necessary, and model results need to be systematically and objectively analyzed and compared to real fires. Plume theory and data from the Meteotron experiment, which was specially designed to provide results from measurements for the theoretical study of a convective plume produced by a high heat source at the ground, are used here to evaluate the fire plume properties simulated by two numerical wildfire models, the Fire Dynamics Simulator or FDS, and the Clark coupled atmosphere-fire model. The study indicates that the FDS produces good agreement with the plume theory and the Meteotron results. The study also suggests that the coupled atmosphere-fire model, a less explicit and ideally less computationally demanding model than the FDS; can produce good agreement, but that the agreement is sensitive to the method of putting the energy released from the fire into the atmosphere. The WFDS (Wildfire and wildland-urban interface FDS), an extension of the FDS to the vegetative fuel, and the Australian grass fire experiments are used to evaluate and improve the UULES-wildfire coupled model. Despite the simple fire parameterization in the UULES-wildfire coupled model, the fireline is fairly well predicted in terms of both shape and location in the simulation of Australian grass fire experiment F19. Finally, the UULES-wildfire coupled model is used to examine how the turbulent flow in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) affects the growth of the grass fires. The model fires showed significant randomness in fire growth: Fire spread is not deterministic in the ABL, and a probabilistic prediction method is warranted. Of the two contributors to the variability in fire growth in the grass fire simulations in the ABL, fire-induced convection, as opposed to the turbulent ABL wind, appears to be the more important one. One mechanism associated with enhanced fire-induced flow is the downdraft behind the frontal fireline. The downdraft is the direct result of the random interaction between the fire plume and the large eddies in the ABL. This study indicates a connection between fire variability in rate of spread and area burnt and so-called convective velocity scale, and it may be possible to use this boundary-layer scale parameter to account for the effects of ABL turbulence on fire spread and fire behavior in today's operational fire prediction systems.

Synaptic dynamics contribute to long-term single neuron response fluctuations.

PubMed

Reinartz, Sebastian; Biro, Istvan; Gal, Asaf; Giugliano, Michele; Marom, Shimon

2014-01-01

Firing rate variability at the single neuron level is characterized by long-memory processes and complex statistics over a wide range of time scales (from milliseconds up to several hours). Here, we focus on the contribution of non-stationary efficacy of the ensemble of synapses-activated in response to a given stimulus-on single neuron response variability. We present and validate a method tailored for controlled and specific long-term activation of a single cortical neuron in vitro via synaptic or antidromic stimulation, enabling a clear separation between two determinants of neuronal response variability: membrane excitability dynamics vs. synaptic dynamics. Applying this method we show that, within the range of physiological activation frequencies, the synaptic ensemble of a given neuron is a key contributor to the neuronal response variability, long-memory processes and complex statistics observed over extended time scales. Synaptic transmission dynamics impact on response variability in stimulation rates that are substantially lower compared to stimulation rates that drive excitability resources to fluctuate. Implications to network embedded neurons are discussed.

Recurrent fires and environment shape the vegetation in Quercus suber L. woodlands and maquis.

PubMed

Schaffhauser, Alice; Curt, Thomas; Véla, Errol; Tatoni, Thierry

2012-06-01

The effects of fire recurrence on vegetation patterns in Quercus suber L. and Erica-Cistus communities in Mediterranean fire-prone ecosystems of south-eastern France were examined on stands belonging to 5 fire classes, corresponding to different numbers of fires (from 0 to 4) and time intervals between fires since 1959. A common pool of species was identified among the plots, which was typical of both open and closed maquis. Fire recurrence reduced the abundance of trees and herbs, whereas it increased the abundance of small shrubs. Richness differed significantly between the most contrasting classes of fire recurrence, with maximal values found in control plots and minimal values in plots that had burned recurrently and recently. Equitability indices did not vary significantly, in contrast to Shannon's diversity index which mostly correlated with richness. Forest ecosystems that have burnt once or twice in the last 50 years were resilient; that is to say they recovered a biomass and composition similar to that of the pre-fire state. However, after more than 3-4 fires, shrubland communities displayed lower species richness and diversity indices than unburned plots. The time since the last fire and the number of fires were the most explanatory fire variables, governing the structure of post-fire plant communities. However, environmental factors, such as slope or exposure, also made a significant contribution. Higher rates of fire recurrence can affect the persistence or expansion of shrublands in the future, as observed in other Mediterranean areas. Copyright © 2012 Académie des sciences. Published by Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.

Spatiotemporal Trends in late-Holocene Fire Regimes in Arctic and Boreal Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoecker, T. J.; Higuera, P. E.; Hu, F.; Kelly, R.

2015-12-01

Alaskan arctic and boreal ecosystems are of global importance owing to their sensitivity and feedbacks to directional climate change. Wildfires are a primary driver of boreal carbon balance, and altered fire regimes may significantly impact global climate through the release of stored carbon and changes to surface albedo. Paleoecological records provide a window to how these systems respond to change by revealing climatic and disturbance variability throughout the Holocene. These long-term records highlight the sensitivity of fire regimes to climate and vegetation change, including responses to the relatively warm Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), and the relatively cool Little Ice Age (LIA). Over millennial timescales, boreal forests and arctic tundra have been resilient to climate change, but continued directional climate change may result in novel vegetation compositions and fire regimes, with potentially significant implications for global climate. Here we present a spatiotemporal synthesis of 22 published sediment-charcoal records from three Alaskan ecoregions. We add to this network eight records collected in June 2015 from an additional ecoregion. Variability in fire return intervals (FRIs) was quantified within and among ecoregions and climatic periods spanning the past 2 millennia, based on a peak analysis representing local fire events. Preliminary results suggest that fire regimes were responsive to centennial-scale climatic shifts, including the MCA and LIA, but the degree of sensitivity varies by ecoregion. Over the past 2000 years, FRIs were shortest during the MCA, indicating the potential for climate warming to promote high rates of burning. FRIs in tundra regions of northwestern Alaska and in interior boreal forests were 20% shorter during the MCA than during the LIA, and 25% shorter in boreal forest in the south-central Brooks Range. Burning was likely promoted during the warmer, drier MCA through lower fuel moisture. Quantifying fire-regime response to climate forcing across multiple ecoregions helps reveal the mechanisms that connect fire and climate in Alaskan ecosystems.

Linear Modeling and Evaluation of Controls on Flow Response in Western Post-Fire Watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saxe, S.; Hogue, T. S.; Hay, L.

2015-12-01

This research investigates the impact of wildfires on watershed flow regimes throughout the western United States, specifically focusing on evaluation of fire events within specified subregions and determination of the impact of climate and geophysical variables in post-fire flow response. Fire events were collected through federal and state-level databases and streamflow data were collected from U.S. Geological Survey stream gages. 263 watersheds were identified with at least 10 years of continuous pre-fire daily streamflow records and 5 years of continuous post-fire daily flow records. For each watershed, percent changes in runoff ratio (RO), annual seven day low-flows (7Q2) and annual seven day high-flows (7Q10) were calculated from pre- to post-fire. Numerous independent variables were identified for each watershed and fire event, including topographic, land cover, climate, burn severity, and soils data. The national watersheds were divided into five regions through K-clustering and a lasso linear regression model, applying the Leave-One-Out calibration method, was calculated for each region. Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) was used to determine the accuracy of the resulting models. The regions encompassing the United States along and west of the Rocky Mountains, excluding the coastal watersheds, produced the most accurate linear models. The Pacific coast region models produced poor and inconsistent results, indicating that the regions need to be further subdivided. Presently, RO and HF response variables appear to be more easily modeled than LF. Results of linear regression modeling showed varying importance of watershed and fire event variables, with conflicting correlation between land cover types and soil types by region. The addition of further independent variables and constriction of current variables based on correlation indicators is ongoing and should allow for more accurate linear regression modeling.

[Drivers of human-caused fire occurrence and its variation trend under climate change in the Great Xing'an Mountains, Northeast China].

PubMed

Li, Shun; Wu, Zhi Wei; Liang, Yu; He, Hong Shi

2017-01-01

The Great Xing'an Mountains are an important boreal forest region in China with high frequency of fire occurrences. With climate change, this region may have a substantial change in fire frequency. Building the relationship between spatial pattern of human-caused fire occurrence and its influencing factors, and predicting the spatial patterns of human-caused fires under climate change scenarios are important for fire management and carbon balance in boreal forests. We employed a spatial point pattern model to explore the relationship between the spatial pattern of human-caused fire occurrence and its influencing factors based on a database of historical fire records (1967-2006) in the Great Xing'an Mountains. The fire occurrence time was used as dependent variable. Nine abiotic (annual temperature and precipitation, elevation, aspect, and slope), biotic (vegetation type), and human factors (distance to the nearest road, road density, and distance to the nearest settlement) were selected as explanatory variables. We substituted the climate scenario data (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5) for the current climate data to predict the future spatial patterns of human-caused fire occurrence in 2050. Our results showed that the point pattern progress (PPP) model was an effective tool to predict the future relationship between fire occurrence and its spatial covariates. The climatic variables might significantly affect human-caused fire occurrence, while vegetation type, elevation and human variables were important predictors of human-caused fire occurrence. The human-caused fire occurrence probability was expected to increase in the south of the area, and the north and the area along the main roads would also become areas with high human-caused fire occurrence. The human-caused fire occurrence would increase by 72.2% under the RCP 2.6 scenario and by 166.7% under the RCP 8.5 scenario in 2050. Under climate change scenarios, the spatial patterns of human-caused fires were mainly influenced by the climate and human factors.

Evaluation of fire weather forecasts using PM2.5 sensitivity analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balachandran, Sivaraman; Baumann, Karsten; Pachon, Jorge E.; Mulholland, James A.; Russell, Armistead G.

2017-01-01

Fire weather forecasts are used by land and wildlife managers to determine when meteorological and fuel conditions are suitable to conduct prescribed burning. In this work, we investigate the sensitivity of ambient PM2.5 to various fire and meteorological variables in a spatial setting that is typical for the southeastern US, where prescribed fires are the single largest source of fine particulate matter. We use the method of principle components regression to estimate sensitivity of PM2.5, measured at a monitoring site in Jacksonville, NC (JVL), to fire data and observed and forecast meteorological variables. Fire data were gathered from prescribed fire activity used for ecological management at Marine Corps Base Camp Lejeune, extending 10-50 km south from the PM2.5 monitor. Principal components analysis (PCA) was run on 10 data sets that included acres of prescribed burning activity (PB) along with meteorological forecast data alone or in combination with observations. For each data set, observed PM2.5 (unitless) was regressed against PCA scores from the first seven principal components (explaining at least 80% of total variance). PM2.5 showed significant sensitivity to PB: 3.6 ± 2.2 μg m-3 per 1000 acres burned at the investigated distance scale of ∼10-50 km. Applying this sensitivity to the available activity data revealed a prescribed burning source contribution to measured PM2.5 of up to 25% on a given day. PM2.5 showed a positive sensitivity to relative humidity and temperature, and was also sensitive to wind direction, indicating the capture of more regional aerosol processing and transport effects. As expected, PM2.5 had a negative sensitivity to dispersive variables but only showed a statistically significant negative sensitivity to ventilation rate, highlighting the importance of this parameter to fire managers. A positive sensitivity to forecast precipitation was found, consistent with the practice of conducting prescribed burning on days when rain can naturally extinguish fires. Perhaps most importantly for land managers, our analysis suggests that instead of relying on the forecasts from a day before, prescribed burning decisions should be based on the forecasts released the morning of the burn when possible, since these data were more stable and yielded more statistically robust results.

Moderate Image Spectrometer (MODIS) Fire Radiative Energy: Physics and Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kaufman, Y.

2004-01-01

MODIS fire channel does not saturate in the presence of fires. The fire channel therefore is used to estimate the fire radiative energy, a measure of the rate of biomass consumption in the fire. We found correlation between the fire radiative energy, the rate of formation of burn scars and the rate of emission of aerosol from the fires. Others found correlations between the fire radiative energy and the rate of biomass consumption. This relationships can be used to estimates the emissions from the fires and to estimate the fire hazards.

Individualized Prediction of Heat Stress in Firefighters: A Data-Driven Approach Using Classification and Regression Trees.

PubMed

Mani, Ashutosh; Rao, Marepalli; James, Kelley; Bhattacharya, Amit

2015-01-01

The purpose of this study was to explore data-driven models, based on decision trees, to develop practical and easy to use predictive models for early identification of firefighters who are likely to cross the threshold of hyperthermia during live-fire training. Predictive models were created for three consecutive live-fire training scenarios. The final predicted outcome was a categorical variable: will a firefighter cross the upper threshold of hyperthermia - Yes/No. Two tiers of models were built, one with and one without taking into account the outcome (whether a firefighter crossed hyperthermia or not) from the previous training scenario. First tier of models included age, baseline heart rate and core body temperature, body mass index, and duration of training scenario as predictors. The second tier of models included the outcome of the previous scenario in the prediction space, in addition to all the predictors from the first tier of models. Classification and regression trees were used independently for prediction. The response variable for the regression tree was the quantitative variable: core body temperature at the end of each scenario. The predicted quantitative variable from regression trees was compared to the upper threshold of hyperthermia (38°C) to predict whether a firefighter would enter hyperthermia. The performance of classification and regression tree models was satisfactory for the second (success rate = 79%) and third (success rate = 89%) training scenarios but not for the first (success rate = 43%). Data-driven models based on decision trees can be a useful tool for predicting physiological response without modeling the underlying physiological systems. Early prediction of heat stress coupled with proactive interventions, such as pre-cooling, can help reduce heat stress in firefighters.

Climatic and Landscape Influences on Fire Regimes from 1984 to 2010 in the Western United States

PubMed Central

Liu, Zhihua; Wimberly, Michael C.

2015-01-01

An improved understanding of the relative influences of climatic and landscape controls on multiple fire regime components is needed to enhance our understanding of modern fire regimes and how they will respond to future environmental change. To address this need, we analyzed the spatio-temporal patterns of fire occurrence, size, and severity of large fires (> 405 ha) in the western United States from 1984–2010. We assessed the associations of these fire regime components with environmental variables, including short-term climate anomalies, vegetation type, topography, and human influences, using boosted regression tree analysis. Results showed that large fire occurrence, size, and severity each exhibited distinctive spatial and spatio-temporal patterns, which were controlled by different sets of climate and landscape factors. Antecedent climate anomalies had the strongest influences on fire occurrence, resulting in the highest spatial synchrony. In contrast, climatic variability had weaker influences on fire size and severity and vegetation types were the most important environmental determinants of these fire regime components. Topography had moderately strong effects on both fire occurrence and severity, and human influence variables were most strongly associated with fire size. These results suggest a potential for the emergence of novel fire regimes due to the responses of fire regime components to multiple drivers at different spatial and temporal scales. Next-generation approaches for projecting future fire regimes should incorporate indirect climate effects on vegetation type changes as well as other landscape effects on multiple components of fire regimes. PMID:26465959

How Fire History, Fire Suppression Practices and Climate Change Affect Wildfire Regimes in Mediterranean Landscapes

PubMed Central

Brotons, Lluís; Aquilué, Núria; de Cáceres, Miquel; Fortin, Marie-Josée; Fall, Andrew

2013-01-01

Available data show that future changes in global change drivers may lead to an increasing impact of fires on terrestrial ecosystems worldwide. Yet, fire regime changes in highly humanised fire-prone regions are difficult to predict because fire effects may be heavily mediated by human activities We investigated the role of fire suppression strategies in synergy with climate change on the resulting fire regimes in Catalonia (north-eastern Spain). We used a spatially-explicit fire-succession model at the landscape level to test whether the use of different firefighting opportunities related to observed reductions in fire spread rates and effective fire sizes, and hence changes in the fire regime. We calibrated this model with data from a period with weak firefighting and later assess the potential for suppression strategies to modify fire regimes expected under different levels of climate change. When comparing simulations with observed fire statistics from an eleven-year period with firefighting strategies in place, our results showed that, at least in two of the three sub-regions analysed, the observed fire regime could not be reproduced unless taking into account the effects of fire suppression. Fire regime descriptors were highly dependent on climate change scenarios, with a general trend, under baseline scenarios without fire suppression, to large-scale increases in area burnt. Fire suppression strategies had a strong capacity to compensate for climate change effects. However, strong active fire suppression was necessary to accomplish such compensation, while more opportunistic fire suppression strategies derived from recent fire history only had a variable, but generally weak, potential for compensation of enhanced fire impacts under climate change. The concept of fire regime in the Mediterranean is probably better interpreted as a highly dynamic process in which the main determinants of fire are rapidly modified by changes in landscape, climate and socioeconomic factors such as fire suppression strategies. PMID:23658726

How fire history, fire suppression practices and climate change affect wildfire regimes in Mediterranean landscapes.

PubMed

Brotons, Lluís; Aquilué, Núria; de Cáceres, Miquel; Fortin, Marie-Josée; Fall, Andrew

2013-01-01

Available data show that future changes in global change drivers may lead to an increasing impact of fires on terrestrial ecosystems worldwide. Yet, fire regime changes in highly humanised fire-prone regions are difficult to predict because fire effects may be heavily mediated by human activities We investigated the role of fire suppression strategies in synergy with climate change on the resulting fire regimes in Catalonia (north-eastern Spain). We used a spatially-explicit fire-succession model at the landscape level to test whether the use of different firefighting opportunities related to observed reductions in fire spread rates and effective fire sizes, and hence changes in the fire regime. We calibrated this model with data from a period with weak firefighting and later assess the potential for suppression strategies to modify fire regimes expected under different levels of climate change. When comparing simulations with observed fire statistics from an eleven-year period with firefighting strategies in place, our results showed that, at least in two of the three sub-regions analysed, the observed fire regime could not be reproduced unless taking into account the effects of fire suppression. Fire regime descriptors were highly dependent on climate change scenarios, with a general trend, under baseline scenarios without fire suppression, to large-scale increases in area burnt. Fire suppression strategies had a strong capacity to compensate for climate change effects. However, strong active fire suppression was necessary to accomplish such compensation, while more opportunistic fire suppression strategies derived from recent fire history only had a variable, but generally weak, potential for compensation of enhanced fire impacts under climate change. The concept of fire regime in the Mediterranean is probably better interpreted as a highly dynamic process in which the main determinants of fire are rapidly modified by changes in landscape, climate and socioeconomic factors such as fire suppression strategies.

Sensitivity of woody carbon stocks to bark investment strategy in Neotropical savannas and forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trugman, Anna T.; Medvigy, David; Hoffmann, William A.; Pellegrini, Adam F. A.

2018-01-01

Fire frequencies are changing in Neotropical savannas and forests as a result of forest fragmentation and increasing drought. Such changes in fire regime and climate are hypothesized to destabilize tropical carbon storage, but there has been little consideration of the widespread variability in tree fire tolerance strategies. To test how aboveground carbon stocks change with fire frequency and composition of plants with different fire tolerance strategies, we update the Ecosystem Demography model 2 (ED2) with (i) a fire survivorship module based on tree bark thickness (a key fire-tolerance trait across woody plants in savannas and forests), and (ii) plant functional types representative of trees in the region. With these updates, the model is better able to predict how fire frequency affects population demography and aboveground woody carbon. Simulations illustrate that the high survival rate of thick-barked, large trees reduces carbon losses with increasing fire frequency, with high investment in bark being particularly important in reducing losses in the wettest sites. Additionally, in landscapes that frequently burn, bark investment can broaden the range of climate and fire conditions under which savannas occur by reducing the range of conditions leading to either complete tree loss or complete grass loss. These results highlight that tropical vegetation dynamics depend not only on rainfall and changing fire frequencies but also on tree fire survival strategy. Further, our results indicate that fire survival strategy is fundamentally important in regulating tree size demography in ecosystems exposed to fire, which increases the preservation of aboveground carbon stocks and the coexistence of different plant functional groups.

Analysis of weather condition influencing fire regime in Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bacciu, Valentina; Masala, Francesco; Salis, Michele; Sirca, Costantino; Spano, Donatella

2014-05-01

Fires have a crucial role within Mediterranean ecosystems, with both negative and positive impacts on all biosphere components and with reverberations on different scales. Fire determines the landscape structure and plant composition, but it is also the cause of enormous economic and ecological damages, beside the loss of human life. In addition, several authors are in agreement suggesting that, during the past decades, changes on fire patterns have occurred, especially in terms of fire-prone areas expansion and fire season lengthening. Climate and weather are two of the main controlling agents, directly and indirectly, of fire regime influencing vegetation productivity, causing water stress, igniting fires through lightning, or modulating fire behavior through wind. On the other hand, these relationships could be not warranted in areas where most ignitions are caused by people (Moreno et al. 2009). Specific analyses of the driving forces of fire regime across countries and scales are thus still required in order to better anticipate fire seasons and also to advance our knowledge of future fire regimes. The objective of this work was to improve our knowledge of the relative effects of several weather variables on forest fires in Italy for the period 1985-2008. Meteorological data were obtained through the MARS (Monitoring Agricultural Resources) database, interpolated at 25x25 km scale. Fire data were provided by the JRC (Join Research Center) and the CFVA (Corpo Forestale e di Vigilanza Ambientale, Sardinia). A hierarchical cluster analysis, based on fire and weather data, allowed the identification of six homogeneous areas in terms of fire occurrence and climate (pyro-climatic areas). Two statistical techniques (linear and non-parametric models) were applied in order to assess if inter-annual variability in weather pattern and fire events had a significant trend. Then, through correlation analysis and multi-linear regression modeling, we investigated the influence of weather variables on fire activity across a range of time- and spatial-scales. The analysis revealed a general decrease of both number of fires and burned area, although not everywhere with the same magnitude. Overall, regression models where highly significant (p<0.001), and the explained variance ranged from 36% to 80% for fire number and from 37% to 76% for burned area, depending on pyro-climatic area. Moreover, our results contributed in determining the relative importance of climate variables acting at different timescales as control on intrinsic (i.e. flammability and moisture) and extrinsic (i.e. fuel amount and structure) characteristics of vegetation, thus strongly influencing fire occurrence. The good performance of our models, especially in the most fire affected pyro-climatic areas of Italy, and the better understanding of the main driver of fire variability gained through this work could be of great help for fire management among the different pyro-climatic areas.

Geographic variation in mixed-conifer forest fire regimes in California

Treesearch

Beaty R. Matthew; Taylor Alan H.

2008-01-01

This paper reviews recent research from California on geographic variability in mixed conifer(MC) forest fire regimes. MC forests are typically described as having experienced primarilyfrequent, low to moderate severity burns prior to fire suppression that created a mosaic ofvegetation patches with variable structure. Research...

Partitioning neuronal variability

PubMed Central

Goris, Robbe L.T.; Movshon, J. Anthony; Simoncelli, Eero P.

2014-01-01

Responses of sensory neurons differ across repeated measurements. This variability is usually treated as stochasticity arising within neurons or neural circuits. However, some portion of the variability arises from fluctuations in excitability due to factors that are not purely sensory, such as arousal, attention, and adaptation. To isolate these fluctuations, we developed a model in which spikes are generated by a Poisson process whose rate is the product of a drive that is sensory in origin, and a gain summarizing stimulus-independent modulatory influences on excitability. This model provides an accurate account of response distributions of visual neurons in macaque LGN, V1, V2, and MT, revealing that variability originates in large part from excitability fluctuations which are correlated over time and between neurons, and which increase in strength along the visual pathway. The model provides a parsimonious explanation for observed systematic dependencies of response variability and covariability on firing rate. PMID:24777419

Detection rates of the MODIS active fire product in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hawbaker, T.J.; Radeloff, V.C.; Syphard, A.D.; Zhu, Z.; Stewart, S.I.

2008-01-01

MODIS active fire data offer new information about global fire patterns. However, uncertainties in detection rates can render satellite-derived fire statistics difficult to interpret. We evaluated the MODIS 1??km daily active fire product to quantify detection rates for both Terra and Aqua MODIS sensors, examined how cloud cover and fire size affected detection rates, and estimated how detection rates varied across the United States. MODIS active fire detections were compared to 361 reference fires (??? 18??ha) that had been delineated using pre- and post-fire Landsat imagery. Reference fires were considered detected if at least one MODIS active fire pixel occurred within 1??km of the edge of the fire. When active fire data from both Aqua and Terra were combined, 82% of all reference fires were found, but detection rates were less for Aqua and Terra individually (73% and 66% respectively). Fires not detected generally had more cloudy days, but not when the Aqua data were considered exclusively. MODIS detection rates decreased with fire size, and the size at which 50% of all fires were detected was 105??ha when combining Aqua and Terra (195??ha for Aqua and 334??ha for Terra alone). Across the United States, detection rates were greatest in the West, lower in the Great Plains, and lowest in the East. The MODIS active fire product captures large fires in the U.S. well, but may under-represent fires in areas with frequent cloud cover or rapidly burning, small, and low-intensity fires. We recommend that users of the MODIS active fire data perform individual validations to ensure that all relevant fires are included. ?? 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Analysis of hospital admissions due to accidental non-fire-related carbon monoxide poisoning in England, between 2001 and 2010.

PubMed

Ghosh, Rebecca E; Close, Rebecca; McCann, Lucy J; Crabbe, Helen; Garwood, Kevin; Hansell, Anna L; Leonardi, Giovanni

2016-03-01

Accidental non-fire-related (ANFR) carbon monoxide (CO) poisoning is a cause of fatalities and hospital admissions. This is the first study that describes the characteristics of ANFR CO hospital admissions in England. Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) inpatient data for England between 2001 and 2010 were used. ANFR CO poisoning admissions were defined as any mention of ICD-10 code T58: toxic effect of CO and X47: accidental poisoning by gases or vapours, excluding ICD-10 codes potentially related to fires (X00-X09, T20-T32 and Y26). There were 2463 ANFR CO admissions over the 10-year period (annual rate: 0.49/100 000); these comprised just under half (48.7%) of all non-fire-related (accidental and non-accidental) CO admissions. There was seasonal variability, with more admissions in colder winter months. Higher admission rates were observed in the north of England. Just over half (53%) of ANFR admissions were male, and the highest rates of ANFR admissions were in those aged >80 years. The burden of ANFR CO poisoning is preventable. The results of this study suggest an appreciable burden of CO and highlight differences that may aid targeting of public health interventions. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Faculty of Public Health.

Applying genetic algorithms to set the optimal combination of forest fire related variables and model forest fire susceptibility based on data mining models. The case of Dayu County, China.

PubMed

Hong, Haoyuan; Tsangaratos, Paraskevas; Ilia, Ioanna; Liu, Junzhi; Zhu, A-Xing; Xu, Chong

2018-07-15

The main objective of the present study was to utilize Genetic Algorithms (GA) in order to obtain the optimal combination of forest fire related variables and apply data mining methods for constructing a forest fire susceptibility map. In the proposed approach, a Random Forest (RF) and a Support Vector Machine (SVM) was used to produce a forest fire susceptibility map for the Dayu County which is located in southwest of Jiangxi Province, China. For this purpose, historic forest fires and thirteen forest fire related variables were analyzed, namely: elevation, slope angle, aspect, curvature, land use, soil cover, heat load index, normalized difference vegetation index, mean annual temperature, mean annual wind speed, mean annual rainfall, distance to river network and distance to road network. The Natural Break and the Certainty Factor method were used to classify and weight the thirteen variables, while a multicollinearity analysis was performed to determine the correlation among the variables and decide about their usability. The optimal set of variables, determined by the GA limited the number of variables into eight excluding from the analysis, aspect, land use, heat load index, distance to river network and mean annual rainfall. The performance of the forest fire models was evaluated by using the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (ROC-AUC) based on the validation dataset. Overall, the RF models gave higher AUC values. Also the results showed that the proposed optimized models outperform the original models. Specifically, the optimized RF model gave the best results (0.8495), followed by the original RF (0.8169), while the optimized SVM gave lower values (0.7456) than the RF, however higher than the original SVM (0.7148) model. The study highlights the significance of feature selection techniques in forest fire susceptibility, whereas data mining methods could be considered as a valid approach for forest fire susceptibility modeling. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessing the predictability of fire occurrence and area burned across phytoclimatic regions in Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bedia, J.; Herrera, S.; Gutiérrez, J. M.

2014-01-01

Most fire protection agencies throughout the world have developed forest fire risk forecast systems, usually building upon existing fire danger indices and meteorological forecast data. In this context, the daily predictability of wildfires is of utmost importance in order to allow the fire protection agencies to issue timely fire hazard alerts. In this study, we address the predictability of daily fire occurrence using the components of the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) System and related variables calculated from the latest ECMWF (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts) reanalysis, ERA-Interim. We develop daily fire occurrence models in peninsular Spain for the period 1990-2008 and, considering different minimum burned area thresholds for fire definition, assess their ability to reproduce the inter-annual fire frequency variability. We based the analysis on a phytoclimatic classification aiming the stratification of the territory into homogeneous units in terms of climatic and fuel type characteristics, allowing to test model performance under different climate/fuel conditions. We then extend the analysis in order to assess the predictability of monthly burned areas. The sensitivity of the models to the level of spatial aggregation of the data is also evaluated. Additionally, we investigate the gain in model performance with the inclusion of socioeconomic and land use/land cover (LULC) covariates in model formulation. Fire occurrence models have attained good performance in most of the phytoclimatic zones considered, being able to faithfully reproduce the inter-annual variability of fire frequency. Total area burned has exhibited some dependence on the meteorological drivers, although model performance was poor in most cases. We identified temperature and some FWI system components as the most important explanatory variables, highlighting the adequacy of the FWI system for fire occurrence prediction in the study area. The results were improved when using aggregated data across regions compared to when data were sampled at the grid-box level. The inclusion of socioeconomic and LULC covariates contributed marginally to the improvement of the models, and in most cases attained no relevant contribution to total explained variance - excepting northern Spain, where anthropogenic factors are known to be the major driver of fires. Models of monthly fire counts performed better in the case of fires larger than 0.1 ha, and for the rest of the thresholds (1, 10 and 100 ha) the daily occurrence models improved the predicted inter-annual variability, indicating the added value of daily models. Fire frequency predictions may provide a preferable basis for past fire history reconstruction, long-term monitoring and the assessment of future climate impacts on fire regimes across regions, posing several advantages over burned area as a response variable. Our results leave the door open to the development a more complex modelling framework based on daily data from numerical climate model outputs based on the FWI system.

Quaternary Charcoal Records from Western North and South America: Linkages to Fire, Climate, and Vegetation Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whitlock, C.; Marlon, J.; Bartlein, P.

2006-12-01

Particulate charcoal preserved in lake sediments has become an important tool for examining the long-term role of fire as an ecosystem process. The record of microscopic charcoal (100 micron diameter or less) offers information on regional burning patterns, whereas macroscopic particles travel less far and are used to infer local fire history. Reconstruction of past fire activity is based on observations of modern charcoal production, transport, and deposition; modeling; and information on current fire regimes. Approaches and statistics used to interpret charcoal records generally focus on (1) quantifying charcoal content in contiguous samples, (2) determining an appropriate age model, (3) converting raw data to charcoal accumulation rates, and (4) extracting fire signal from noise. Detection of signal in charcoal time series is based on knowledge of recent fires provided by dendrochronological and documentary data. Additional paleofire information is obtained from stratigraphic changes in charcoal composition, pollen assemblages adapted to fire, and other paleoenvironmental proxy. Fire-history studies from western North and South America provide examples of Holocene fire-history reconstructions at spatial scales ranging from watershed to regional. Individual sites show dramatic shifts from crown to surface fire regimes associated with major changes in vegetation. Networks of records reveal regional variations in fire activity and vegetation that are attributed to insolation- driven shifts in atmospheric circulation and changes in short-term climate variability. A global database of paleofire records under development offers an opportunity to consider continental-scale fire patterns and their broad consequences for vegetation dynamics, biogeochemical cycling, and atmospheric chemistry.

Human and biophysical influences on fire occurrence in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hawbaker, Todd J.; Radeloff, Volker C.; Stewart, Susan I.; Hammer, Roger B.; Keuler, Nicholas S.; Clayton, Murray K.

2013-01-01

National-scale analyses of fire occurrence are needed to prioritize fire policy and management activities across the United States. However, the drivers of national-scale patterns of fire occurrence are not well understood, and how the relative importance of human or biophysical factors varies across the country is unclear. Our research goal was to model the drivers of fire occurrence within ecoregions across the conterminous United States. We used generalized linear models to compare the relative influence of human, vegetation, climate, and topographic variables on fire occurrence in the United States, as measured by MODIS active fire detections collected between 2000 and 2006. We constructed models for all fires and for large fires only and generated predictive maps to quantify fire occurrence probabilities. Areas with high fire occurrence probabilities were widespread in the Southeast, and localized in the Mountain West, particularly in southern California, Arizona, and New Mexico. Probabilities for large-fire occurrence were generally lower, but hot spots existed in the western and south-central United States The probability of fire occurrence is a critical component of fire risk assessments, in addition to vegetation type, fire behavior, and the values at risk. Many of the hot spots we identified have extensive development in the wildland–urban interface and are near large metropolitan areas. Our results demonstrated that human variables were important predictors of both all fires and large fires and frequently exhibited nonlinear relationships. However, vegetation, climate, and topography were also significant variables in most ecoregions. If recent housing growth trends and fire occurrence patterns continue, these areas will continue to challenge policies and management efforts seeking to balance the risks generated by wildfires with the ecological benefits of fire.

Estimates of CO2 from fires in the United States: implications for carbon management.

PubMed

Wiedinmyer, Christine; Neff, Jason C

2007-11-01

Fires emit significant amounts of CO2 to the atmosphere. These emissions, however, are highly variable in both space and time. Additionally, CO2 emissions estimates from fires are very uncertain. The combination of high spatial and temporal variability and substantial uncertainty associated with fire CO2 emissions can be problematic to efforts to develop remote sensing, monitoring, and inverse modeling techniques to quantify carbon fluxes at the continental scale. Policy and carbon management decisions based on atmospheric sampling/modeling techniques must account for the impact of fire CO2 emissions; a task that may prove very difficult for the foreseeable future. This paper addresses the variability of CO2 emissions from fires across the US, how these emissions compare to anthropogenic emissions of CO2 and Net Primary Productivity, and the potential implications for monitoring programs and policy development. Average annual CO2 emissions from fires in the lower 48 (LOWER48) states from 2002-2006 are estimated to be 213 (+/- 50 std. dev.) Tg CO2 yr-1 and 80 (+/- 89 std. dev.) Tg CO2 yr-1 in Alaska. These estimates have significant interannual and spatial variability. Needleleaf forests in the Southeastern US and the Western US are the dominant source regions for US fire CO2 emissions. Very high emission years typically coincide with droughts, and climatic variability is a major driver of the high interannual and spatial variation in fire emissions. The amount of CO2 emitted from fires in the US is equivalent to 4-6% of anthropogenic emissions at the continental scale and, at the state-level, fire emissions of CO2 can, in some cases, exceed annual emissions of CO2 from fossil fuel usage. The CO2 released from fires, overall, is a small fraction of the estimated average annual Net Primary Productivity and, unlike fossil fuel CO2 emissions, the pulsed emissions of CO2 during fires are partially counterbalanced by uptake of CO2 by regrowing vegetation in the decades following fire. Changes in fire severity and frequency can, however, lead to net changes in atmospheric CO2 and the short-term impacts of fire emissions on monitoring, modeling, and carbon management policy are substantial.

Using tree recruitment patterns and fire history to guide restoration of an unlogged ponderosa pine/Douglas‐fir landscape in the southern Rocky Mountains after a century of fire suppression

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kaufmann, M.R.; Huckaby, L.S.; Fornwalt, P.J.; Stoker, J.M.; Romme, W.H.

2003-01-01

Tree age and fire history were studied in an unlogged ponderosa pine/Douglas‐fir ( Pinus ponderosa/Pseudotsuga menziesii ) landscape in the Colorado Front Range mountains. These data were analysed to understand tree survival during fire and post‐fire recruitment patterns after fire, as a basis for understanding the characteristics of, and restoration needs for, an ecologically sustainable landscape. Comparisons of two independent tree age data sets indicated that sampling what subjectively appear to be the five oldest trees in a forest polygon could identify the oldest tree. Comparisons of the ages of the oldest trees in each data set with maps of fire history suggested that delays in establishment of trees, after stand‐replacing fire, ranged from a few years to more than a century. These data indicate that variable fire severity, including patches of stand replacement, and variable temporal patterns of tree recruitment into openings after fire were major causes of spatial heterogeneity of patch structure in the landscape. These effects suggest that restoring current dense and homogeneous ponderosa pine forests to an ecologically sustainable and dynamic condition should reflect the roles of fires and variable patterns of tree recruitment in regulating landscape structure.

Stand-replacing wildfires increase nitrification for decades in southwestern ponderosa pine forests.

PubMed

Kurth, Valerie J; Hart, Stephen C; Ross, Christopher S; Kaye, Jason P; Fulé, Peter Z

2014-05-01

Stand-replacing wildfires are a novel disturbance within ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests of the southwestern United States, and they can convert forests to grasslands or shrublands for decades. While most research shows that soil inorganic N pools and fluxes return to pre-fire levels within a few years, we wondered if vegetation conversion (ponderosa pine to bunchgrass) following stand-replacing fires might be accompanied by a long-term shift in N cycling processes. Using a 34-year stand-replacing wildfire chronosequence with paired, adjacent unburned patches, we examined the long-term dynamics of net and gross nitrogen (N) transformations. We hypothesized that N availability in burned patches would become more similar to those in unburned patches over time after fire as these areas become re-vegetated. Burned patches had higher net and gross nitrification rates than unburned patches (P < 0.01 for both), and nitrification accounted for a greater proportion of N mineralization in burned patches for both net (P < 0.01) and gross (P < 0.04) N transformation measurements. However, trends with time-after-fire were not observed for any other variables. Our findings contrast with previous work, which suggested that high nitrification rates are a short-term response to disturbance. Furthermore, high nitrification rates at our site were not simply correlated with the presence of herbaceous vegetation. Instead, we suggest that stand-replacing wildfire triggers a shift in N cycling that is maintained for at least three decades by various factors, including a shift from a woody to an herbaceous ecosystem and the presence of fire-deposited charcoal.

Impacts of climate on shrubland fuels and fire behavior in the Owyhee Basin, Idaho

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vogelmann, J. E.; Shi, H.; Hawbaker, T.; Li, Z.

2013-12-01

There is evidence that wildland fire is increasing as a function of global change. However, fire activity is spatially, temporally and ecologically variable across the globe, and our understanding of fire risk and behavior in many ecosystems is limited. After a series of severe fire seasons that occurred during the late 1990's in the western United States, the LANDFIRE program was developed with the goals of providing the fire community with objective spatial fuel data for assessing wildland fire risk. Even with access to the data provided by LANDFIRE, assessing fire behavior in shrublands in sagebrush-dominated ecosystems of the western United States has proven especially problematic, in part due to the complex nature of the vegetation, the variable influence of understory vegetation including invasive species (e.g. cheatgrass), and prior fire history events. Climate is undoubtedly playing a major role, affecting the intra- and inter-annual variability in vegetation conditions, which in turn impacts fire behavior. In order to further our understanding of climate-vegetation-fire interactions in shrublands, we initiated a study in the Owyhee Basin, which is located in southwestern Idaho and adjacent Nevada. Our goals include: (1) assessing the relationship between climate and vegetation condition, (2) quantifying the range of temporal variability in grassland and shrubland fuel loads, (3) identifying methods to operationally map the variability in fuel loads, and (4) assessing how the variability in fuel loads affect fire spread simulations. To address these goals, we are using a wide variety of geospatial data, including remotely sensed time-series data sets derived from MODIS and Landsat, and climate data from DAYMET and PRISM. Remotely-sensed information is used to characterize climate-induced temporal variability in primary productivity in the Basin, where fire spread can be extensive after senescence when dry vegetation is added to dead fuel loads. Gridded climate data indicate that this area has become warmer and dryer over the previous three decades. We have also observed that fires are especially prevalent in areas that have high Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values in the spring, followed by low NDVI in the summer. At present we are concentrating on the temporally rich MODIS data to map spatial and temporal variability in live fuel loads. To translate NDVI to biomass, we are scaling the range of biomass values using data from the literature. We assume that departure from maximum NDVI, typically occurring during spring, to NDVI values later in the season are related to the proportion of live biomass transferred to dead biomass, which burns more readily than green biomass. Using the FARSITE fire spread model, our initial simulations show that the conversion from live herbaceous fuel to dead fuel increases the burn area by 30% compared with using default static fuel parameters. This indicates that current fuel models underestimate fire spread and areas that could potentially burn. Our study also indicates that a combined remote sensing product with good temporal resolution (MODIS) and spatial resolution (Landsat) is necessary to provide accurate information on the fuel dynamics in shrublands.

COMMUNICATION: Electrophysiological response dynamics during focal cortical infarction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiganos, Terry C., Jr.; Jensen, Winnie; Rousche, Patrick J.

2006-12-01

While the intracellular processes of hypoxia-induced necrosis and the intercellular mechanisms of post-ischemic neurotoxicity associated with stroke are well documented, the dynamic electrophysiological (EP) response of neurons within the core or periinfarct zone remains unclear. The present study validates a method for continuous measurement of the local EP responses during focal cortical infarction induced via photothrombosis. Single microwire electrodes were acutely implanted into the primary auditory cortex of eight rats. Multi-unit neural activity, evoked via a continuous 2 Hz click stimulus, was recorded before, during and after infarction to assess neuronal function in response to local, permanent ischemia. During sham infarction, the average stimulus-evoked peak firing rate over 20 min remained stable at 495.5 ± 14.5 spikes s-1, indicating temporal stability of neural function under normal conditions. Stimulus-evoked peak firing was reliably reduced to background levels (firing frequency in the absence of stimulus) following initiation of photothrombosis over a period of 439 ± 92 s. The post-infarction firing patterns exhibited unique temporal degradation of the peak firing rate, suggesting a variable response to ischemic challenge. Despite the inherent complexity of cerebral ischemia secondary to microvascular occlusion, complete loss of EP function consistently occurred 300-600 s after photothrombosis. The results suggest that microwire recording during photothrombosis provides a simple and highly efficacious strategy for assessing the electrophysiological dynamics of cortical infarction.

Separating Spike Count Correlation from Firing Rate Correlation

PubMed Central

Vinci, Giuseppe; Ventura, Valérie; Smith, Matthew A.; Kass, Robert E.

2016-01-01

Populations of cortical neurons exhibit shared fluctuations in spiking activity over time. When measured for a pair of neurons over multiple repetitions of an identical stimulus, this phenomenon emerges as correlated trial-to-trial response variability via spike count correlation (SCC). However, spike counts can be viewed as noisy versions of firing rates, which can vary from trial to trial. From this perspective, the SCC for a pair of neurons becomes a noisy version of the corresponding firing-rate correlation (FRC). Furthermore, the magnitude of the SCC is generally smaller than that of the FRC, and is likely to be less sensitive to experimental manipulation. We provide statistical methods for disambiguating time-averaged drive from within-trial noise, thereby separating FRC from SCC. We study these methods to document their reliability, and we apply them to neurons recorded in vivo from area V4, in an alert animal. We show how the various effects we describe are reflected in the data: within-trial effects are largely negligible, while attenuation due to trial-to-trial variation dominates, and frequently produces comparisons in SCC that, because of noise, do not accurately reflect those based on the underlying FRC. PMID:26942746

Implementing microscopic charcoal in a global climate-aerosol model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilgen, Anina; Lohmann, Ulrike; Brügger, Sandra; Adolf, Carole; Ickes, Luisa

2017-04-01

Information about past fire activity is crucial to validate fire models and to better understand their deficiencies. Several paleofire records exist, among them ice cores and sediments, which preserve fire tracers like levoglucosan, vanillic acid, or charcoal particles. In this work, we implement microscopic charcoal particles (maximum dimension 10-100 μm) into the global climate-aerosol model ECHAM6.3HAM2.3. Since we are not aware of any reliable estimates of microscopic charcoal emissions, we scaled black carbon emissions from GFAS to capture the charcoal fluxes from a calibration dataset. After that, model results were compared with a validation dataset. The coarse model resolution (T63L31; 1.9°x1.9°) impedes the model to capture local variability of charcoal fluxes. However, variability on the global scale is pronounced due to highly-variable fire emissions. In future, we plan to model charcoal fluxes in the past 1-2 centuries using fire emissions provided from fire models. Furthermore, we intend to compare modelled charcoal fluxes from prescribed fire emissions with those calculated by an interactive fire model.

ENSO controls interannual fire activity in southeast Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mariani, M.; Fletcher, M.-S.; Holz, A.; Nyman, P.

2016-10-01

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the main mode controlling the variability in the ocean-atmosphere system in the South Pacific. While the ENSO influence on rainfall regimes in the South Pacific is well documented, its role in driving spatiotemporal trends in fire activity in this region has not been rigorously investigated. This is particularly the case for the highly flammable and densely populated southeast Australian sector, where ENSO is a major control over climatic variability. Here we conduct the first region-wide analysis of how ENSO controls fire activity in southeast Australia. We identify a significant relationship between ENSO and both fire frequency and area burnt. Critically, wavelet analyses reveal that despite substantial temporal variability in the ENSO system, ENSO exerts a persistent and significant influence on southeast Australian fire activity. Our analysis has direct application for developing robust predictive capacity for the increasingly important efforts at fire management.

Reconstructions of Fire Activity in North America and Europe over the Past 250 Years: A comparison of the Global Charcoal Database with Historical Records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Magi, B. I.; Marlon, J. R.; Mouillot, F.; Daniau, A. L.; Bartlein, P. J.; Schaefer, A.

2017-12-01

Fire is intertwined with climate variability and human activities in terms of both its causes and consequences, and the most complete understanding will require a multidisciplinary approach. The focus in this study is to compare data-based records of variability in climate and human activities, with fire and land cover change records over the past 250 years in North America and Europe. The past 250 years is a critical period for contextualizing the present-day impact of human activities on climate. Data are from the Global Charcoal Database and from historical reconstructions of past burning. The GCD is comprised of sediment records of charcoal accumulation rates collected around the world by dozens of researchers, and facilitated by the PAGES Global Paleofire Working Group. The historical reconstruction extends back to 1750 CE is based on literature and government records when available, and completed with non-charcoal proxies including tree ring scars or storylines when data are missing. The key data sets are independent records, and the methods and results are independent of any climate or fire-model simulations. Results are presented for Europe, and subsets of North America. Analysis of fire trends from GCD and the historical reconstruction shows broad agreement, with some regional variations as expected. Western USA and North America in general show the best agreement, with departures in the GCD and historical reconstruction fire trends in the present day that may reflect limits in the data itself. Eastern North America shows agreement with an increase in fire from 1750 to 1900, and a strong decreasing trend thereafter. We present ideas for why the trends agree and disagree relative to historical events, and to the sequence of land-cover change in the regions of interest. Together with careful consideration of uncertainties in the data, these results can be used to constrain Earth System Model simulations of both past fire, which explicitly incorporate historical fire emissions, and the pathways of future fire on a warmer planet.

An Overview of the New FEER Smoke Emissions Product and Its Applications over Northern Sub-Saharan Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ellison, L. T.; Ichoku, C. M.

2012-12-01

A new smoke emissions inventory is being derived by NASA's Fire Energetics and Emissions Research (FEER, http://feer.gsfc.nasa.gov/) group in conjunction with the NASA-funded interdisciplinary research project on the interactions and feedbacks between biomass burning and water cycle dynamics across the Northern Sub-Saharan African (NSSA) region. The vast amount of anthropogenic biomass burning conducted in NSSA during the dry months contributes significant amounts of gaseous and particulate emissions to the local climate system. The emissions product presented here is a result of the efforts made to utilize quantitative satellite measures of important fire and smoke variables to generate an accurate emissions product that can be used to quantify the relationship between biomass burning and regional climate impacts. This new product is based on a unique top-down approach whereby radiant energy and emission rates are related from independent yet coincident remotely sensed retrievals of fire radiative power (FRP) and aerosol optical depth (AOD) from the two active Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments. The algorithm produces a 1×1° global grid of coefficients of emission, Ce, that directly relate FRP to emission rates, or equivalently, fire radiative energy (FRE, the temporally integrated FRP curve) to emissions. Thus, emissions can be easily and quickly obtained in a given region by multiplying the Ce grid with FRP measurements acquired within that region. The Ce product offers the user flexibility in using any desired FRP data source, and the lag time in generating emissions is only constrained by that of obtaining FRP. The accuracy of this emissions product and its comparisons to other established emissions databases are presented here, as is a discussion of the contribution that this product will make toward accounting for climate variabilities in the NSSA region.

Measurement of inter- and intra-annual variability of landscape fire activity at a continental scale: the Australian case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williamson, Grant J.; Prior, Lynda D.; Jolly, W. Matt; Cochrane, Mark A.; Murphy, Brett P.; Bowman, David M. J. S.

2016-03-01

Climate dynamics at diurnal, seasonal and inter-annual scales shape global fire activity, although difficulties of assembling reliable fire and meteorological data with sufficient spatio-temporal resolution have frustrated quantification of this variability. Using Australia as a case study, we combine data from 4760 meteorological stations with 12 years of satellite-derived active fire detections to determine day and night time fire activity, fire season start and end dates, and inter-annual variability, across 61 objectively defined climate regions in three climate zones (monsoon tropics, arid and temperate). We show that geographic patterns of landscape burning (onset and duration) are related to fire weather, resulting in a latitudinal gradient from the monsoon tropics in winter, through the arid zone in all seasons except winter, and then to the temperate zone in summer and autumn. Peak fire activity precedes maximum lightning activity by several months in all regions, signalling the importance of human ignitions in shaping fire seasons. We determined median daily McArthur forest fire danger index (FFDI50) for days and nights when fires were detected: FFDI50 varied substantially between climate zones, reflecting effects of fire management in the temperate zone, fuel limitation in the arid zone and abundance of flammable grasses in the monsoon tropical zone. We found correlations between the proportion of days when FFDI exceeds FFDI50 and the Southern Oscillation index across the arid zone during spring and summer, and Indian Ocean dipole mode index across south-eastern Australia during summer. Our study demonstrates that Australia has a long fire weather season with high inter-annual variability relative to all other continents, making it difficult to detect long term trends. It also provides a way of establishing robust baselines to track changes to fire seasons, and supports a previous conceptual model highlighting multi-temporal scale effects of climate in shaping continental-scale pyrogeography.

Impacts of wildfires on interannual trends in land surface phenology: an investigation of the Hayman Fire

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jianmin; Zhang, Xiaoyang

2017-05-01

Land surface phenology (LSP) derived from satellite data has been widely associated with recent global climate change. However, LSP is frequently influenced by land disturbances, which significantly limits our understanding of the phenological trends driven by climate change. Because wildfire is one of the most significant disturbance agents, we investigated the influences of wildfire on the start of growing season (SOS) and the interannual trends of SOS in the Hayman Fire area that occurred in 2002 in Colorado using time series of daily MODIS data (2001-2014). Results show that the Hayman Fire advanced the area-integrated SOS by 15.2 d and converted SOS from a delaying trend of 3.9 d/decade to an advancing trend of -1.9 d/decade during 2001-2014. The fire impacts on SOS increased from low burn severity to high burn severity. Moreover, the rate of increase of annual maximum and minimum EVI2 from 2003-2014 reflects that vegetation greenness could recover to pre-fire status in 2022 and 2053, respectively, which suggests that the fire impacts on the satellite-derived SOS variability and the interannual trends should continue in the next few decades.

A Global Classification of Contemporary Fire Regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Norman, S. P.; Kumar, J.; Hargrove, W. W.; Hoffman, F. M.

2014-12-01

Fire regimes provide a sensitive indicator of changes in climate and human use as the concept includes fire extent, season, frequency, and intensity. Fires that occur outside the distribution of one or more aspects of a fire regime may affect ecosystem resilience. However, global scale data related to these varied aspects of fire regimes are highly inconsistent due to incomplete or inconsistent reporting. In this study, we derive a globally applicable approach to characterizing similar fire regimes using long geophysical time series, namely MODIS hotspots since 2000. K-means non-hierarchical clustering was used to generate empirically based groups that minimized within-cluster variability. Satellite-based fire detections are known to have shortcomings, including under-detection from obscuring smoke, clouds or dense canopy cover and rapid spread rates, as often occurs with flashy fuels or during extreme weather. Such regions are free from preconceptions, and the empirical, data-mining approach used on this relatively uniform data source allows the region structures to emerge from the data themselves. Comparing such an empirical classification to expectations from climate, phenology, land use or development-based models can help us interpret the similarities and differences among places and how they provide different indicators of changes of concern. Classifications can help identify where large infrequent mega-fires are likely to occur ahead of time such as in the boreal forest and portions of the Interior US West, and where fire reports are incomplete such as in less industrial countries.

Deforestation fires versus understory fires in the Amazon Basin: What can we learn from satellite-based CO measurements?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martinez-Alonso, S.; Deeter, M. N.; Worden, H. M.; Gille, J. C.; Clerbaux, C.; George, M.

2014-12-01

Deforestation fires in the Amazon Basin abound during the dry season (July to October) and are mostly associated with "slash and burn" agricultural practices. Understory fires occur when fires escape from deforested areas into neighboring standing forests; they spread slowly below the canopy, affecting areas that may be comparable or even larger than clear-cut areas. The interannual variabilities of understory fires and deforestation rates appear to be uncorrelated. Areas burned in understory fires are particularly extensive during droughts. Because they progress below a canopy of living trees, understory fires and their effects are not as easily identifiable from space as deforestation fires. Here we analyze satellite remote sensing products for CO and fire to investigate differences between deforestation fires and understory fires in the Amazon Basin under varying climatic conditions. The MOPITT (Measurements Of Pollution In The Troposphere) instrument on board NASA's Terra satellite has been measuring tropospheric CO since 2000, providing the longest global CO record to date. IASI (the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer) A and B are two instruments on board METOP-A and -B, respectively, measuring, among others, CO since 2006 and 2012. MODIS (the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) instruments on board NASA's Terra and Aqua satellites provide, among other products, a daily record of fires and their effects since 2000 and 2002, respectively. The temporal extent of all these datasets allows for the detailed analysis of drought versus non-drought years. Initial results indicate that MOPITT CO emissions during the dry season peaked in 2005, 2007, and 2010. Those were draught years and coincide with peaks in area affected by understory fires.

Fire risk in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peterson, Seth Howard

Fire is an integral part of ecosystems in the western United States. Decades of fire suppression have led to (unnaturally) large accumulations of fuel in some forest communities, such as the lower elevation forests of the Sierra Nevada. Urban sprawl into fire prone chaparral vegetation in southern California has put human lives at risk and the decreased fire return intervals have put the vegetation community at risk of type conversion. This research examines the factors affecting fire risk in two of the dominant landscapes in the state of California, chaparral and inland coniferous forests. Live fuel moisture (LFM) is important for fire ignition, spread rate, and intensity in chaparral. LFM maps were generated for Los Angeles County by developing and then inverting robust cross-validated regression equations from time series field data and vegetation indices (VIs) and phenological metrics from MODIS data. Fire fuels, including understory fuels which are not visible to remote sensing instruments, were mapped in Yosemite National Park using the random forests decision tree algorithm and climatic, topographic, remotely sensed, and fire history variables. Combining the disparate data sources served to improve classification accuracies. The models were inverted to produce maps of fuel models and fuel amounts, and these showed that fire fuel amounts are highest in the low elevation forests that have been most affected by fire suppression impacting the natural fire regime. Wildland fires in chaparral commonly burn in late summer or fall when LFM is near its annual low, however, the Jesusita Fire burned in early May of 2009, when LFM was still relatively high. The HFire fire spread model was used to simulate the growth of the Jesusita Fire using LFM maps derived from imagery acquired at the time of the fire and imagery acquired in late August to determine how much different the fire would have been if it had occurred later in the year. Simulated fires were 1.5 times larger, and the fire reached the wildland urban interface three hours earlier, when using August LFM.

Effects of a large wildfire on vegetation structure in a variable fire mosaic.

PubMed

Foster, C N; Barton, P S; Robinson, N M; MacGregor, C I; Lindenmayer, D B

2017-12-01

Management guidelines for many fire-prone ecosystems highlight the importance of maintaining a variable mosaic of fire histories for biodiversity conservation. Managers are encouraged to aim for fire mosaics that are temporally and spatially dynamic, include all successional states of vegetation, and also include variation in the underlying "invisible mosaic" of past fire frequencies, severities, and fire return intervals. However, establishing and maintaining variable mosaics in contemporary landscapes is subject to many challenges, one of which is deciding how the fire mosaic should be managed following the occurrence of large, unplanned wildfires. A key consideration for this decision is the extent to which the effects of previous fire history on vegetation and habitats persist after major wildfires, but this topic has rarely been investigated empirically. In this study, we tested to what extent a large wildfire interacted with previous fire history to affect the structure of forest, woodland, and heath vegetation in Booderee National Park in southeastern Australia. In 2003, a summer wildfire burned 49.5% of the park, increasing the extent of recently burned vegetation (<10 yr post-fire) to more than 72% of the park area. We tracked the recovery of vegetation structure for nine years following the wildfire and found that the strength and persistence of fire effects differed substantially between vegetation types. Vegetation structure was modified by wildfire in forest, woodland, and heath vegetation, but among-site variability in vegetation structure was reduced only by severe fire in woodland vegetation. There also were persistent legacy effects of the previous fire regime on some attributes of vegetation structure including forest ground and understorey cover, and woodland midstorey and overstorey cover. For example, woodland midstorey cover was greater on sites with higher fire frequency, irrespective of the severity of the 2003 wildfire. Our results show that even after a large, severe wildfire, underlying fire histories can contribute substantially to variation in vegetation structure. This highlights the importance of ensuring that efforts to reinstate variation in vegetation fire age after large wildfires do not inadvertently reduce variation in vegetation structure generated by the underlying invisible mosaic. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Rhythmic activities of hypothalamic magnocellular neurons: autocontrol mechanisms.

PubMed

Richard, P; Moos, F; Dayanithi, G; Gouzènes, L; Sabatier, N

1997-12-01

Electrophysiological recordings in lactating rats show that oxytocin (OT) and vasopressin (AVP) neurons exhibit specific patterns of activities in relation to peripheral stimuli: periodic bursting firing for OT neurons during suckling, phasic firing for AVP neurons during hyperosmolarity (systemic injection of hypertonic saline). These activities are autocontrolled by OT and AVP released somato-dentritically within the hypothalamic magnocellular nuclei. In vivo, OT enhances the amplitude and frequency of bursts, an effect accompanied with an increase in basal firing rate. However, the characteristics of firing change as facilitation proceeds: the spike patterns become very irregular with clusters of spikes spaced by long silences; the firing rate is highly variable and clearly oscillates before facilitated bursts. This unstable behaviour dramatically decreases during intense tonic activation which temporarily interrupts bursting, and could therefore be a prerequisite for bursting. In vivo, the effects of AVP depend on the initial firing pattern of AVP neurons: AVP excites weakly active neurons (increasing duration of active periods and decreasing silences), inhibits highly active neurons, and does not affect neurons with intermediate phasic activity. AVP brings the entire population of AVP neurons to discharge with a medium phasic activity characterised by periods of firing and silence lasting 20-40 s, a pattern shown to optimise the release of AVP from the neurohypophysis. Each of the peptides (OT or AVP) induces an increase in intracellular Ca2+ concentration, specifically in the neurons containing either OT or AVP respectively. OT evokes the release of Ca2+ from IP3-sensitive intracellular stores. AVP induces an influx of Ca2+ through voltage-dependent Ca2+ channels of T-, L- and N-types. We postulate that the facilitatory autocontrol of OT and AVP neurons could be mediated by Ca2+ known to play a key role in the control of the patterns of phasic neurons.

Relative influence of wildfire on soil properties and erosion processes in different Mediterranean environments in NE Spain.

PubMed

Pardini, Giovanni; Gispert, Maria; Dunjó, Gemma

2004-07-26

Abandonment of terraced soils and increased brushland cover has increased wildfire occurrence to almost an annual rate in the Cap de Creus Peninsula, NE Pyrenees Range, Province of Girona, Spain. A wildfire occurred in August 2000 and affected an area of 6760 ha of shrubs and cork trees, whereas still cultivated plots were only slightly affected. Five stations of erosion measurements, corresponding to five different environments (from present cultivation to late abandonment) were destroyed by the passage of fire, and were promptly replaced to allow to monitoring post-fire effects on soil erosion. Selected soil properties were determined monthly before the fire and during 6 months after the fire at a monthly rate. Runoff and sediment yield together with dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in runoff water and organic carbon losses in eroded sediments (EOC) were evaluated throughout 2000. The last stage of abandonment, stands of cork trees, had the highest soil stability. Nevertheless, evidence of unfavourable soil conditions was detected at the shrub stage, when Cistus monspeliensis cover was the dominant opportunistic plant. This stage was considered to be a critical threshold leading either to degradation or regeneration processes according to fire frequency. A drastic change in soil properties, erosion and nutrient depletion occurred after the fire in all the environments. Statistics enabled to state that environments differed significantly in main soil properties. By statistically comparing the measured variables between the environments before and after the fire, DOC was found to be the soil parameter showing the highest significance between environments. Absolute values of erosion were low with respect to other Mediterranean environments although the shallow nature of these soils might deserve special attention because of a comparatively higher risk of degradation. Copyright 2004 Elsevier B.V.

Fire Patterns and Drivers of Fires in the West African Tropical Forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dwomoh, F. K.; Wimberly, M. C.

2015-12-01

The West African tropical forest (referred to as the Upper Guinean forest, UGF), is a global biodiversity hotspot providing vital ecosystem services for the region's socio-economic and environmental wellbeing. It is also one of the most fragmented and human-modified tropical forest ecosystems, with the only remaining large patches of original forests contained in protected areas. However, these remnant forests are susceptible to continued fire-mediated degradation and forest loss due to intense climatic, demographic and land use pressures. We analyzed human and climatic drivers of fire activity in the sub-region to better understand the spatial and temporal patterns of these risks. We utilized MODIS active fire and burned area products to identify fire activity within the sub-region. We measured climatic variability using TRMM rainfall data and derived indicators of human land use from a variety of geospatial datasets. We used a boosted regression trees model to determine the influences of predictor variables on fire activity. Our analyses indicated that the spatial and temporal variability of precipitation is a key driving factor of fire activity in the UGF. Anthropogenic effects on fire activity in the area were evident through the influences of agriculture and low-density populations. These human footprints in the landscape make forests more susceptible to fires through forest fragmentation, degradation, and fire spread from agricultural areas. Forested protected areas within the forest savanna mosaic experienced frequent fires, whereas the more humid forest areas located in the south and south-western portions of the study area had fewer fires as these rainforests tend to offer some buffering against fire encroachment. These results improve characterization of UGF fire regime and expand our understanding of the spatio-temporal dynamics of tropical forest fires in response to human and climatic pressures.

Forest restoration treatments have subtle long-term effects on soil C and N cycling in mixed conifer forests.

PubMed

Ganzlin, Peter W; Gundale, Michael J; Becknell, Rachel E; Cleveland, Cory C

2016-07-01

Decades of fire suppression following extensive timber harvesting have left much of the forest in the intermountain western United States exceedingly dense, and forest restoration techniques (i.e., thinning and prescribed fire) are increasingly being used in an attempt to mitigate the effects of severe wildfire, to enhance tree growth and regeneration, and to stimulate soil nutrient cycling. While many of the short-term effects of forest restoration have been established, the long-term effects on soil biogeochemical and ecosystem processes are largely unknown. We assessed the effects of commonly used forest restoration treatments (thinning, burning, and thinning + burning) on nutrient cycling and other ecosystem processes 11 yr after restoration treatments were implemented in a ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa var. scopulorum)/Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var. glauca) forest at the Lubrecht Fire and Fire Surrogates Study (FFS) site in western Montana, USA. Despite short-term (<3 yr) increases in soil inorganic nitrogen (N) pools and N cycling rates following prescribed fire, long-term soil N pools and N mineralization rates showed only subtle differences from untreated control plots. Similarly, despite a persistent positive correlation between fuels consumed in prescribed burns and several metrics of N cycling, variability in inorganic N pools decreased significantly since treatments were implemented, indicating a decline in N spatial heterogeneity through time. However, rates of net nitrification remain significantly higher in a thin + burn treatment relative to other treatments. Short-term declines in forest floor carbon (C) pools have persisted in the thin + burn treatment, but there were no significant long-term differences among treatments in extractable soil phosphorus (P). Finally, despite some short-term differences, long-term foliar nutrient concentrations, litter decomposition rates, and rates of free-living N fixation in the experimental plots were not different from control plots, suggesting nutrient cycles and ecosystem processes in temperate coniferous forests are resilient to disturbance following long periods of fire suppression. Overall, this study provides forest managers and policymakers valuable information showing that the effects of these commonly used restoration prescriptions on soil nutrient cycling are ephemeral and that use of repeated treatments (i.e., frequent fire) will be necessary to ensure continued restoration success. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Full-scale flammability test data for validation of aircraft fire mathematical models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kuminecz, J. F.; Bricker, R. W.

1982-01-01

Twenty-five large scale aircraft flammability tests were conducted in a Boeing 737 fuselage at the NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC). The objective of this test program was to provide a data base on the propagation of large scale aircraft fires to support the validation of aircraft fire mathematical models. Variables in the test program included cabin volume, amount of fuel, fuel pan area, fire location, airflow rate, and cabin materials. A number of tests were conducted with jet A-1 fuel only, while others were conducted with various Boeing 747 type cabin materials. These included urethane foam seats, passenger service units, stowage bins, and wall and ceiling panels. Two tests were also included using special urethane foam and polyimide foam seats. Tests were conducted with each cabin material individually, with various combinations of these materials, and finally, with all materials in the cabin. The data include information obtained from approximately 160 locations inside the fuselage.

Climate and Wildfire in Mountains of the Western United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alfaro, E.; Westerling, A. L.; Cayan, D. R.

2004-12-01

Since the mid-1980s, there has been a dramatic increase in the area burned in wildfires in mountain forests of the western United States, with mean annual area burned nearly three and a half times higher compared to the preceding one and a half decades.(1) Concomitant increases in variability in annual area burned and in fire suppression costs pose a serious challenge for land management in the mountainous West. The variance in annual area burned since 1987 is nineteen times its previous level. Since managers must be prepared for the worst possible scenarios in every fire season, increased uncertainty about the scale of the western fire season each year imposes high costs on public agencies. Annual real suppression costs in western forests have more than doubled for the Forest Service since 1987, while the variance in annual suppression costs is over four times higher. Although federal agencies' fire suppression budgets have increased recently, they are still close to what would be spent in an "average" year that seldom occurs, while costs tend to fluctuate between low and high extremes. Modeling area burned and suppression costs as a function of climate variability alone, Westerling (2004, unpublished work) found that the probability of the Forest Service's suppression expenses exceeding the current annual suppression budget has exceeded 50% since 1987, a substantial increase from the one-in-three chance over the preceding 40 years. Recent progress in our understanding of the links between climate and wildfire, and in our ability to forecast some aspects of both climate and wildfire season severity a season or more in advance, offers some hope that these costs might be ameliorated through the integration of climate information into fire and fuels management. In addition to the effects of climate variability on wildfire, long-term biomass accumulations in some western ecosystems have fueled an increasing incidence of large, stand-replacing wildfires where such fires were previously rare. These severe large fires can result in erosion and changes in vegetation type, with consequences for water quality, stream flow, future biological productivity of the affected areas, and habitat loss for endangered species. Apart from their deleterious ecological consequences, severe fires can also dramatically affect amenity values for public lands and for homeowners living in the wildland-urban interface. In the National Fire Plan, land management agencies have committed to reducing fuels on millions of hectares of public lands. The primary means are mechanical removal, prescribed fire and wildland fire use. The Forest Service estimates they will need to spend hundreds of millions of dollars per year to meet their fuel reduction targets, while efforts in recent years have not kept up with the current rate of biomass increase. Use of climate information for targeting resources and scheduling prescribed burns could increase the efficiency of these efforts. In this study we review the fire history since 1970 for western mountain forests, and demonstrate apparent links between regional climate variability and decadal-scale changes in annual area burned. This analysis explores how wildfire size and frequency have varied over the past thirty-five years by elevation and latitude, and how climate indices such as precipitation, temperature, drought indices and the timing of spring runoff vary in importance for fire season severity by elevation in forests around the western United States.

Using Remotely Sensed Soil Moisture to Estimate Fire Risk in Tropical Peatlands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dadap, N.; Cobb, A.; Hoyt, A.; Harvey, C. F.; Konings, A. G.

2017-12-01

Tropical peatlands in Equatorial Asia have become more vulnerable to fire due to deforestation and peatland drainage over the last 30 years. In these regions, water table depth has been shown to play an important role in mediating fire risk as it serves as a proxy for peat moisture content. However, water table depth observations are sparse and expensive. Soil moisture could provide a more direct indicator of fire risk than water table depth. In this study, we use new soil moisture retrievals from the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) satellite to demonstrate that - contrary to popular wisdom - remotely sensed soil moisture observations are possible over most Southeast Asian peatlands. Soil moisture estimation in this region was previously thought to be impossible over tropical peatlands because of dense vegetation cover. We show that vegetation density is sufficiently low across most Equatorial Asian peatlands to allow soil moisture estimation, and hypothesize that deforestation and other anthropogenic changes in land cover have combined to reduce overall vegetation density sufficient to allow soil moisture estimation. We further combine burned area estimates from the Global Fire Emissions Database and SMAP soil moisture retrievals to show that soil moisture provides a strong signal for fire risk in peatlands, with fires occurring at a much greater rate over drier soils. We will also develop an explicit fire risk model incorporating soil moisture with additional climatic, land cover, and anthropogenic predictor variables.

Theta phase precession of grid and place cell firing in open environments

PubMed Central

Jeewajee, A.; Barry, C.; Douchamps, V.; Manson, D.; Lever, C.; Burgess, N.

2014-01-01

Place and grid cells in the rodent hippocampal formation tend to fire spikes at successively earlier phases relative to the local field potential theta rhythm as the animal runs through the cell's firing field on a linear track. However, this ‘phase precession’ effect is less well characterized during foraging in two-dimensional open field environments. Here, we mapped runs through the firing fields onto a unit circle to pool data from multiple runs. We asked which of seven behavioural and physiological variables show the best circular–linear correlation with the theta phase of spikes from place cells in hippocampal area CA1 and from grid cells from superficial layers of medial entorhinal cortex. The best correlate was the distance to the firing field peak projected onto the animal's current running direction. This was significantly stronger than other correlates, such as instantaneous firing rate and time-in-field, but similar in strength to correlates with other measures of distance travelled through the firing field. Phase precession was stronger in place cells than grid cells overall, and robust phase precession was seen in traversals through firing field peripheries (although somewhat less than in traversals through the centre), consistent with phase coding of displacement along the current direction. This type of phase coding, of place field distance ahead of or behind the animal, may be useful for allowing calculation of goal directions during navigation. PMID:24366140

Legacy microsite effect on the survival of bitterbrush outplantings after prescribed fire: capitalizing on spatial variability to improve restoration

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Restoration of shrubs in arid and semi-arid rangelands is hampered by low success rates. Planting shrub seedlings is a method used to improve success in these rangelands; however, it is expensive and labor intensive. The efficiency of shrub restoration could be improved by identifying microsites w...

Offending Behaviours of Child and Adolescent Firesetters over a 10-Year Follow-Up

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lambie, Ian; Ioane, Julia; Randell, Isabel; Seymour, Fred

2013-01-01

Background: To assess the postintervention arson recidivism and other offending rates of a group of 182 firesetting children and adolescents referred to the New Zealand Fire Awareness and Intervention Program (FAIP) over a follow-up period of 10 years. To investigate predictors of offending behaviour as well as variables associated with previous…

Fire patterns in the Amazonian biome

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aragao, Luiz E. O. C.; Shimabukuro, Yosio E.; Lima, Andre; Anderson, Liana O.; Barbier, Nicolas; Saatchi, Sassan

2010-05-01

This paper aims to provide an overview of our recent findings on the interplay between climate and land use dynamics in defining fire patterns in Amazonia. Understanding these relationships is currently a fundamental concern for assessing the vulnerability of Amazonia to climate change and its potential for mitigating current increases in atmospheric greenhouse gases. Reducing carbon emissions from tropical deforestation and forest degradation (REDD), for instance, could contribute to a cumulative emission reduction of 13-50 billion tons of carbon (GtC) by 2100. In Amazonia, though, forest fires can release similar quantities of carbon to the atmosphere (~0.2 GtC yr-1) as deforestation alone. Therefore, to achieve carbon savings through REDD mechanism there is an urgent need of understanding and subsequently restraining related Amazonian fire drivers. In this study, we analyze satellite-derived monthly and annual time-series of fires, rainfall and deforestation in Amazonia to: (1) quantify the seasonal patterns and relationships between these variables; (2) quantify fire and rainfall anomalies to evaluate the impact of recent drought on fire patterns; (3) quantify recent trends in fire and deforestation to understand how land use affects fire patterns in Amazonia. Our results demonstrate a marked seasonality of fires. The majority of fires occurs along the Arc of Deforestation, the expanding agricultural frontier in southern and eastern Amazonia, indicating humans are the major ignition sources determining fire seasonality, spatial distribution and long-term patterns. There is a marked seasonality of fires, which is highly correlated (p<0.05) with monthly rainfall and deforestation rates. Deforestation and fires reach their highest values three and six months, respectively, after the peak of the rainy season. This result clearly describes the impact of major human activities on fire incidence, which is generally characterized by the slash-and-burn of Amazonian vegetation for implementation of pastures and agricultural fields. The cumulative number of hot pixels is exponentially related to the monthly rainfall, which ultimately defines where and when fire can potentially strike. During the 2005 Amazonian drought, the number of hot pixels increased 33% in relation to mean 1998-2005. However, even with a large fraction of the basin experiencing considerable water deficits, fires have only affect areas with extensive human activity. Our spatially explicit trend analysis on deforestation and fire data revealed that more than half of the area experiencing increased fire occurrence have reduced deforestation rates. This reverse pattern is likely to be associated with the slash-and-burn of secondary forests and the increase of fragmentation and forest edges, favouring the leakage of fires from deforested lands into forests. Finally, our analysis points towards a reduction of fire incidence due to land use intensification in this region. In this study, we demonstrated that anthropogenic forcing, such as deforestation rates, is decisive in determining the seasonality and annual patterns of fire occurrence. Moreover, droughts can significantly increase the number of fires in the region exacerbating human impacts in Amazonia. Due to ongoing deforestation and the predicted intensification of climate change induced droughts, it is anticipated that a large area of forest edge will be under increased risk of fires and carbon savings from REDD may be partially offset by increased emissions following fire events. Improved fire-free land management practices may provide a sustainable solution for reducing emissions from the world's largest rainforest. Acknowledges The first author would like to thank the financial support of the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC-UK/grant NE/F015356/1).

FIRES: Fire Information Retrieval and Evaluation System - A program for fire danger rating analysis

Treesearch

Patricia L. Andrews; Larry S. Bradshaw

1997-01-01

A computer program, FIRES: Fire Information Retrieval and Evaluation System, provides methods for evaluating the performance of fire danger rating indexes. The relationship between fire danger indexes and historical fire occurrence and size is examined through logistic regression and percentiles. Historical seasonal trends of fire danger and fire occurrence can be...

Predicting moisture dynamics of fine understory fuels in a moist tropical rainforest system: results of a pilot study undertaken to identify proxy variables useful for rating fire danger.

PubMed

Ray, David; Nepstad, Dan; Brando, Paulo

2010-08-01

*The use of fire as a land management tool in the moist tropics often has the unintended consequence of degrading adjacent forest, particularly during severe droughts. Reliable models of fire danger are needed to help mitigate these impacts. *Here, we studied the moisture dynamics of fine understory fuels in the east-central Brazilian Amazon during the 2003 dry season. Drying stations established under varying amounts of canopy cover (leaf area index (LAI) = 0 - 5.3) were subjected to a range of water inputs (5-15 mm) and models were developed to forecast litter moisture content (LMC). Predictions were then compared with independent field data. *A multiple linear regression relating litter moisture content to forest structure (LAI), ambient vapor pressure deficit (VPD(M)) and an index of elapsed time since a precipitation event (d(-1)) was identified as the best-fit model (adjusted R(2) = 0.89). Relative to the independent observations, model predictions were relatively unbiased when the LMC was

Measuring behaviours for escaping from house fires: use of latent variable models to summarise multiple behaviours.

PubMed

Ploubidis, G B; Edwards, P; Kendrick, D

2015-12-15

This paper reports the development and testing of a construct measuring parental fire safety behaviours for planning escape from a house fire. Latent variable modelling of data on parental-reported fire safety behaviours and plans for escaping from a house fire and multivariable logistic regression to quantify the association between groups defined by the latent variable modelling and parental-report of having a plan for escaping from a house fire. Data comes from 1112 participants in a cluster randomised controlled trial set in children's centres in 4 study centres in the UK. A two class model provided the best fit to the data, combining responses to five fire safety planning behaviours. The first group ('more behaviours for escaping from a house fire') comprised 86% of participants who were most likely to have a torch, be aware of how their smoke alarm sounds, to have external door and window keys accessible, and exits clear. The second group ('fewer behaviours for escaping from a house fire') comprised 14% of participants who were less likely to report these five behaviours. After adjusting for potential confounders, participants allocated to the 'more behaviours for escaping from a house fire group were 2.5 times more likely to report having an escape plan (OR 2.48; 95% CI 1.59-3.86) than those in the "fewer behaviours for escaping from a house fire" group. Multiple fire safety behaviour questions can be combined into a single binary summary measure of fire safety behaviours for escaping from a house fire. Our findings will be useful to future studies wishing to use a single measure of fire safety planning behaviour as measures of outcome or exposure. NCT 01452191. Date of registration 13/10/2011.

Time-related changes in firing rates are influenced by recruitment threshold and twitch force potentiation in the first dorsal interosseous.

PubMed

Miller, Jonathan D; Herda, Trent J; Trevino, Michael A; Sterczala, Adam J; Ciccone, Anthony B

2017-08-01

What is the central question of this study? The influences of motor unit recruitment threshold and twitch force potentiation on the changes in firing rates during steady-force muscular contractions are not well understood. What is the main finding and its importance? The behaviour of motor units during steady force was influenced by recruitment threshold, such that firing rates decreased for lower-threshold motor units but increased for higher-threshold motor units. In addition, individuals with greater changes in firing rates possessed greater twitch force potentiation. There are contradictory reports regarding changes in motor unit firing rates during steady-force contractions. Inconsistencies are likely to be the result of previous studies disregarding motor unit recruitment thresholds and not examining firing rates on a subject-by-subject basis. It is hypothesized that firing rates are manipulated by twitch force potentiation during contractions. Therefore, in this study we examined time-related changes in firing rates at steady force in relationship to motor unit recruitment threshold in the first dorsal interosseous and the influence of twitch force potentiation on such changes in young versus aged individuals. Subjects performed a 12 s steady-force contraction at 50% maximal voluntary contraction, with evoked twitches before and after the contraction to quantify potentiation. Firing rates, in relationship to recruitment thresholds, were determined at the beginning, middle and end of the steady force. There were no firing rate changes for aged individuals. For the young, firing rates decreased slightly for lower-threshold motor units but increased for higher-threshold motor units. Twitch force potentiation was greater for young than aged subjects, and changes in firing rates were correlated with twitch force potentiation. Thus, individuals with greater increases in firing rates of higher-threshold motor units and decreases in lower-threshold motor units possessed greater twitch force potentiation. Overall, changes in firing rates during brief steady-force contractions are dependent on recruitment threshold and explained in part by twitch force potentiation. Given that firing rate changes were measured in relationship to recruitment threshold, this study illustrates a more complete view of firing rate changes during steady-force contractions. © 2017 The Authors. Experimental Physiology © 2017 The Physiological Society.

Fire activity as a function of fire-weather seasonal severity and antecedent climate across spatial scales in southern Europe and Pacific western USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urbieta, Itziar R.; Zavala, Gonzalo; Bedia, Joaquín; Gutiérrez, José M.; San Miguel-Ayanz, Jesús; Camia, Andrea; Keeley, Jon E.; Moreno, José M.

2015-11-01

Climate has a strong influence on fire activity, varying across time and space. We analyzed the relationships between fire-weather conditions during the main fire season and antecedent water-balance conditions and fires in two Mediterranean-type regions with contrasted management histories: five southern countries of the European Union (EUMED)(all fires); the Pacific western coast of the USA (California and Oregon, PWUSA)(national forest fires). Total number of fires (≥1 ha), number of large fires (≥100 ha) and area burned were related to mean seasonal fire weather index (FWI), number of days over the 90th percentile of the FWI, and to the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) from the preceding 3 (spring) or 8 (autumn through spring) months. Calculations were made at three spatial aggregations in each area, and models related first-difference (year-to-year change) of fires and FWI/climate variables to minimize autocorrelation. An increase in mean seasonal FWI resulted in increases in the three fire variables across spatial scales in both regions. SPEI contributed little to explain fires, with few exceptions. Negative water-balance (dry) conditions from autumn through spring (SPEI8) were generally more important than positive conditions (moist) in spring (SPEI3), both of which contributed positively to fires. The R2 of the models generally improved with increasing area of aggregation. For total number of fires and area burned, the R2 of the models tended to decrease with increasing mean seasonal FWI. Thus, fires were more susceptible to change with climate variability in areas with less amenable conditions for fires (lower FWI) than in areas with higher mean FWI values. The relationships were similar in both regions, albeit weaker in PWUSA, probably due to the wider latitudinal gradient covered in PWUSA than in EUMED. The large variance explained by some of the models indicates that large-scale seasonal forecast could help anticipating fire activity in the investigated areas.

Social context differentially modulates activity of two interneuron populations in an avian basal ganglia nucleus

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Basal ganglia circuits are critical for the modulation of motor performance across behavioral states. In zebra finches, a cortical-basal ganglia circuit dedicated to singing is necessary for males to adjust their song performance and transition between spontaneous singing, when they are alone (“undirected” song), and a performance state, when they sing to a female (“female-directed” song). However, we know little about the role of different basal ganglia cell types in this behavioral transition or the degree to which behavioral context modulates the activity of different neuron classes. To investigate whether interneurons in the songbird basal ganglia encode information about behavioral state, I recorded from two interneuron types, fast-spiking interneurons (FSI) and external pallidal (GPe) neurons, in the songbird basal ganglia nucleus area X during both female-directed and undirected singing. Both cell types exhibited higher firing rates, more frequent bursting, and greater trial-by-trial variability in firing when male zebra finches produced undirected songs compared with when they produced female-directed songs. However, the magnitude and direction of changes to the firing rate, bursting, and variability of spiking between when birds sat silently and when they sang undirected and female-directed song varied between FSI and GPe neurons. These data indicate that social modulation of activity important for eliciting changes in behavioral state is present in multiple cell types within area X and suggests that social interactions may adjust circuit dynamics during singing at multiple points within the circuit. PMID:27628208

Scale Dependence of Oak Woodland Historical Fire Intervals: Contrasting the Barrens of Tennessee and Cross Timbers of Oklahoma, USA

Treesearch

Michael C. Stambaugh; Richard P. Guyette; Joseph M. Marschall; Daniel C. Dey

2016-01-01

Characterization of scale dependence of fire intervals could inform interpretations of fire history and improve fire prescriptions that aim to mimic historical fire regime conditions. We quantified the temporal variability in fire regimes and described the spatial dependence of fire intervals through the analysis of multi-century fire scar records (8 study sites, 332...

From leaves to landscape: A multiscale approach to assess fire hazard in wildland-urban interface areas.

PubMed

Ghermandi, Luciana; Beletzky, Natacha A; de Torres Curth, Mónica I; Oddi, Facundo J

2016-12-01

The overlapping zone between urbanization and wildland vegetation, known as the wildland urban interface (WUI), is often at high risk of wildfire. Human activities increase the likelihood of wildfires, which can have disastrous consequences for property and land use, and can pose a serious threat to lives. Fire hazard assessments depend strongly on the spatial scale of analysis. We assessed the fire hazard in a WUI area of a Patagonian city by working at three scales: landscape, community and species. Fire is a complex phenomenon, so we used a large number of variables that correlate a priori with the fire hazard. Consequently, we analyzed environmental variables together with fuel load and leaf flammability variables and integrated all the information in a fire hazard map with four fire hazard categories. The Nothofagus dombeyi forest had the highest fire hazard while grasslands had the lowest. Our work highlights the vulnerability of the wildland-urban interface to fire in this region and our suggested methodology could be applied in other wildland-urban interface areas. Particularly in high hazard areas, our work could help in spatial delimitation policies, urban planning and development of plans for the protection of human lives and assets. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An evaluation of the discriminating power of an Integrated Ballistics Identification System® Heritage™system with the NIST standard cartridge case (Standard Reference Material 2461).

PubMed

Morris, Keith B; Law, Eric F; Jefferys, Roger L; Dearth, Elizabeth C; Fabyanic, Emily B

2017-11-01

Through analysis and comparison of firing pin, breech face, and ejector impressions, where appropriate, firearm examiners may connect a cartridge case to a suspect firearm with a certain likelihood in a criminal investigation. When a firearm is not present, an examiner may use the Integrated Ballistics Identification System (IBIS ® ), an automated search and retrieval system coupled with the National Integrated Ballistics Information Network (NIBIN), a database of images showing the markings on fired cartridge cases and bullets from crime scenes along with test fired firearms. For the purpose of measurement quality control of these IBIS ® systems the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) initiated the Standard Reference Material (SRM) 2460/2461 standard bullets and cartridge cases project. The aim of this study was to evaluate the overall performance of the IBIS ® system by using NIST standard cartridge cases. By evaluating the resulting correlation scores, error rates, and percent recovery, both the variability between and within examiners when using IBIS ® , in addition to any inter- and intra-variability between SRM cartridge cases was observed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Computational modeling indicates that surface pressure can be reliably conveyed to tactile receptors even amidst changes in skin mechanics

PubMed Central

Wang, Yuxiang; Baba, Yoshichika; Lumpkin, Ellen A.

2016-01-01

Distinct patterns in neuronal firing are observed between classes of cutaneous afferents. Such differences may be attributed to end-organ morphology, distinct ion-channel complements, and skin microstructure, among other factors. Even for just the slowly adapting type I afferent, the skin's mechanics for a particular specimen might impact the afferent's firing properties, especially given the thickness and elasticity of skin can change dramatically over just days. Here, we show computationally that the skin can reliably convey indentation magnitude, rate, and spatial geometry to the locations of tactile receptors even amid changes in skin's structure. Using finite element analysis and neural dynamics models, we considered the skin properties of six mice that span a representative cohort. Modeling the propagation of the surface stimulus to the interior of the skin demonstrated that there can be large variance in stresses and strains near the locations of tactile receptors, which can lead to large variance in static firing rate. However, variance is significantly reduced when the stimulus tip is controlled by surface pressure and compressive stress is measured near the end organs. This particular transformation affords the least variability in predicted firing rates compared with others derived from displacement, force, strain energy density, or compressive strain. Amid changing skin mechanics, stimulus control by surface pressure may be more naturalistic and optimal and underlie how animals actively explore the tactile environment. PMID:27098029

Variability of fire emissions on interannual to multi-decadal timescales in two Earth System models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ward, D. S.; Shevliakova, E.; Malyshev, S.

Connections between wildfires and modes of variability in climate are sought as a means for predicting fire activity on interannual to multi-decadal timescales. Several fire drivers, such as temperature and local drought index, have been shown to vary on these timescales, and analysis of tree-ring data suggests covariance between fires and climate oscillation indices in some regions. HBut, the shortness of the satellite record of global fire events limits investigations on larger spatial scales. Here we explore the interplay between climate variability and wildfire emissions with the preindustrial long control numerical experiments and historical ensembles of CESM1 and the NOAA/GFDLmore » ESM2Mb. We find that interannual variability in fires is underpredicted in both Earth System models (ESMs) compared to present day fire emission inventories. Modeled fire emissions respond to the El Niño/southern oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) with increases in southeast Asia and boreal North America emissions, and decreases in southern North America and Sahel emissions, during the ENSO warm phase in both ESMs, and the PDO warm phase in CESM1. In addition, CESM1 produces decreases in boreal northern hemisphere fire emissions for the warm phase of the Atlantic Meridional Oscillation. Through analysis of the long control simulations, we show that the 20th century trends in both ESMs are statistically significant, meaning that the signal of anthropogenic activity on fire emissions over this time period is detectable above the annual to decadal timescale noise. However, the trends simulated by the two ESMs are of opposite sign (CESM1 decreasing, ESM2Mb increasing), highlighting the need for improved understanding, proxy observations, and modeling to resolve this discrepancy.« less

Variability of fire emissions on interannual to multi-decadal timescales in two Earth System models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ward, D. S.; Shevliakova, E.; Malyshev, S.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Wittenberg, A. T.

2016-12-01

Connections between wildfires and modes of variability in climate are sought as a means for predicting fire activity on interannual to multi-decadal timescales. Several fire drivers, such as temperature and local drought index, have been shown to vary on these timescales, and analysis of tree-ring data suggests covariance between fires and climate oscillation indices in some regions. However, the shortness of the satellite record of global fire events limits investigations on larger spatial scales. Here we explore the interplay between climate variability and wildfire emissions with the preindustrial long control numerical experiments and historical ensembles of CESM1 and the NOAA/GFDL ESM2Mb. We find that interannual variability in fires is underpredicted in both Earth System models (ESMs) compared to present day fire emission inventories. Modeled fire emissions respond to the El Niño/southern oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) with increases in southeast Asia and boreal North America emissions, and decreases in southern North America and Sahel emissions, during the ENSO warm phase in both ESMs, and the PDO warm phase in CESM1. Additionally, CESM1 produces decreases in boreal northern hemisphere fire emissions for the warm phase of the Atlantic Meridional Oscillation. Through analysis of the long control simulations, we show that the 20th century trends in both ESMs are statistically significant, meaning that the signal of anthropogenic activity on fire emissions over this time period is detectable above the annual to decadal timescale noise. However, the trends simulated by the two ESMs are of opposite sign (CESM1 decreasing, ESM2Mb increasing), highlighting the need for improved understanding, proxy observations, and modeling to resolve this discrepancy.

Variability of fire emissions on interannual to multi-decadal timescales in two Earth System models

DOE PAGES

Ward, D. S.; Shevliakova, E.; Malyshev, S.; ...

2016-12-02

Connections between wildfires and modes of variability in climate are sought as a means for predicting fire activity on interannual to multi-decadal timescales. Several fire drivers, such as temperature and local drought index, have been shown to vary on these timescales, and analysis of tree-ring data suggests covariance between fires and climate oscillation indices in some regions. HBut, the shortness of the satellite record of global fire events limits investigations on larger spatial scales. Here we explore the interplay between climate variability and wildfire emissions with the preindustrial long control numerical experiments and historical ensembles of CESM1 and the NOAA/GFDLmore » ESM2Mb. We find that interannual variability in fires is underpredicted in both Earth System models (ESMs) compared to present day fire emission inventories. Modeled fire emissions respond to the El Niño/southern oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) with increases in southeast Asia and boreal North America emissions, and decreases in southern North America and Sahel emissions, during the ENSO warm phase in both ESMs, and the PDO warm phase in CESM1. In addition, CESM1 produces decreases in boreal northern hemisphere fire emissions for the warm phase of the Atlantic Meridional Oscillation. Through analysis of the long control simulations, we show that the 20th century trends in both ESMs are statistically significant, meaning that the signal of anthropogenic activity on fire emissions over this time period is detectable above the annual to decadal timescale noise. However, the trends simulated by the two ESMs are of opposite sign (CESM1 decreasing, ESM2Mb increasing), highlighting the need for improved understanding, proxy observations, and modeling to resolve this discrepancy.« less

Measurement of inter- and intra-annual variability of landscape fire activity at a continental scale: The Australian case

Treesearch

Grant J. Williamson; Lynda D. Prior; Matt Jolly; Mark A. Cochrane; Brett P. Murphy; David M. J. S. Bowman

2016-01-01

Climate dynamics at diurnal, seasonal and inter-annual scales shape global fire activity, although difficulties of assembling reliable fire and meteorological data with sufficient spatio-temporal resolution have frustrated quantification of this variability. Using Australia as a case study, we combine data from 4760 meteorological stations with 12 years of satellite-...

Climatic influences on fire regimes in montane forests of the southern Cascades, California, USA

Treesearch

A. H. Taylor; V. Trouet; C. N. Skinner

2008-01-01

he relationship between climate variability and fire extent was examined in montane and upper montane forests in the southern Cascades. Fire occurrence and extent were reconstructed for seven sites and related to measures of reconstructed climate for the period 1700 to 1900. The climate variables included the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), summer temperature (...

Fuels planning: science synthesis and integration; economic uses fact sheet 08: prescribed fire costs

Treesearch

Rocky Mountain Research Station USDA Forest Service

2004-01-01

Although the use of prescribed fire as a management tool is widespread, there is great variability and uncertainty in the treatment costs. Given specific site variables and management objectives, how much will it cost to use prescribed fire? This paper describes the FASTRACS database, a tool that has been developed to aid managers in addressing this question.

The interannual variability of the Haines Index over North America

Treesearch

Lejiang Yu; Shiyuan Zhong; Xindi Bian; Warren E. Heilman; Joseph J. Charney

2013-01-01

The Haines index (HI) is a fire-weather index that is widely used as an indicator of the potential for dry, low-static-stability air in the lower atmosphere to contribute to erratic fire behavior or large fire growth. This study examines the interannual variability of HI over North America and its relationship to indicators of large-scale circulation anomalies. The...

Predicting Peak Flows following Forest Fires

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elliot, William J.; Miller, Mary Ellen; Dobre, Mariana

2016-04-01

Following forest fires, peak flows in perennial and ephemeral streams often increase by a factor of 10 or more. This increase in peak flow rate may overwhelm existing downstream structures, such as road culverts, causing serious damage to road fills at stream crossings. In order to predict peak flow rates following wildfires, we have applied two different tools. One is based on the U.S.D.A Natural Resource Conservation Service Curve Number Method (CN), and the other is by applying the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) to the watershed. In our presentation, we will describe the science behind the two methods, and present the main variables for each model. We will then provide an example of a comparison of the two methods to a fire-prone watershed upstream of the City of Flagstaff, Arizona, USA, where a fire spread model was applied for current fuel loads, and for likely fuel loads following a fuel reduction treatment. When applying the curve number method, determining the time to peak flow can be problematic for low severity fires because the runoff flow paths are both surface and through shallow lateral flow. The WEPP watershed version incorporates shallow lateral flow into stream channels. However, the version of the WEPP model that was used for this study did not have channel routing capabilities, but rather relied on regression relationships to estimate peak flows from individual hillslope polygon peak runoff rates. We found that the two methods gave similar results if applied correctly, with the WEPP predictions somewhat greater than the CN predictions. Later releases of the WEPP model have incorporated alternative methods for routing peak flows that need to be evaluated.

Modeling task-specific neuronal ensembles improves decoding of grasp

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Ryan J.; Soares, Alcimar B.; Rouse, Adam G.; Schieber, Marc H.; Thakor, Nitish V.

2018-06-01

Objective. Dexterous movement involves the activation and coordination of networks of neuronal populations across multiple cortical regions. Attempts to model firing of individual neurons commonly treat the firing rate as directly modulating with motor behavior. However, motor behavior may additionally be associated with modulations in the activity and functional connectivity of neurons in a broader ensemble. Accounting for variations in neural ensemble connectivity may provide additional information about the behavior being performed. Approach. In this study, we examined neural ensemble activity in primary motor cortex (M1) and premotor cortex (PM) of two male rhesus monkeys during performance of a center-out reach, grasp and manipulate task. We constructed point process encoding models of neuronal firing that incorporated task-specific variations in the baseline firing rate as well as variations in functional connectivity with the neural ensemble. Models were evaluated both in terms of their encoding capabilities and their ability to properly classify the grasp being performed. Main results. Task-specific ensemble models correctly predicted the performed grasp with over 95% accuracy and were shown to outperform models of neuronal activity that assume only a variable baseline firing rate. Task-specific ensemble models exhibited superior decoding performance in 82% of units in both monkeys (p  <  0.01). Inclusion of ensemble activity also broadly improved the ability of models to describe observed spiking. Encoding performance of task-specific ensemble models, measured by spike timing predictability, improved upon baseline models in 62% of units. Significance. These results suggest that additional discriminative information about motor behavior found in the variations in functional connectivity of neuronal ensembles located in motor-related cortical regions is relevant to decode complex tasks such as grasping objects, and may serve the basis for more reliable and accurate neural prosthesis.

A model for assessing water quality risk in catchments prone to wildfire

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Langhans, Christoph; Smith, Hugh; Chong, Derek; Nyman, Petter; Lane, Patrick; Sheridan, Gary

2017-04-01

Post-fire debris flows can have erosion rates up to three orders of magnitude higher than background rates. They are major sources of fine suspended sediment, which is critical to the safety of water supply from forested catchments. Fire can cover parts or all of these large catchments and burn severity is often heterogeneous. The probability of spatial and temporal overlap of fire disturbance and rainfall events, and the susceptibility of hillslopes to severe erosion determine the risk to water quality. Here we present a model to calculate recurrence intervals of high magnitude sediment delivery from runoff-generated debris flows to a reservoir in a large catchment (>100 km2) accounting for heterogeneous burn conditions. Debris flow initiation was modelled with indicators of surface runoff and soil surface erodibility. Debris flow volume was calculated with an empirical model, and fine sediment delivery was calculated using simple, expert-based assumptions. In a Monte-Carlo simulation, wildfire was modelled with a fire spread model using historic data on weather and ignition probabilities for a forested catchment in central Victoria, Australia. Multiple high intensity storms covering the study catchment were simulated using Intensity-Frequency-Duration relationships, and the runoff indicator calculated with a runoff model for hillslopes. A sensitivity analysis showed that fine sediment is most sensitive to variables related to the texture of the source material, debris flow volume estimation, and the proportion of fine sediment transported to the reservoir. As a measure of indirect validation, denudation rates of 4.6 - 28.5 mm ka-1 were estimated and compared well to other studies in the region. From the results it was extrapolated that in the absence of fire management intervention the critical sediment concentrations in the studied reservoir could be exceeded in intervals of 18 - 124 years.

A review of the main driving factors of forest fire ignition over Europe.

PubMed

Ganteaume, Anne; Camia, Andrea; Jappiot, Marielle; San-Miguel-Ayanz, Jesus; Long-Fournel, Marlène; Lampin, Corinne

2013-03-01

Knowledge of the causes of forest fires, and of the main driving factors of ignition, is an indispensable step towards effective fire prevention policies. This study analyses the factors driving forest fire ignition in the Mediterranean region including the most common human and environmental factors used for modelling in the European context. Fire ignition factors are compared to spatial and temporal variations of fire occurrence in the region, then are compared to results obtained in other areas of the world, with a special focus on North America (US and Canada) where a significant number of studies has been carried out on this topic. The causes of forest fires are varied and their distribution differs among countries, but may also differ spatially and temporally within the same country. In Europe, and especially in the Mediterranean basin, fires are mostly human-caused mainly due arson. The distance to transport networks and the distance to urban or recreation areas are among the most frequently used human factors in modelling exercises and the Wildland-Urban Interface is increasingly taken into account in the modelling of fire occurrence. Depending on the socio-economic context of the region concerned, factors such as the unemployment rate or variables linked to agricultural activity can explain the ignition of intentional and unintentional fires. Regarding environmental factors, those related to weather, fuel and topography are the most significant drivers of ignition of forest fires, especially in Mediterranean-type regions. For both human and lightning-caused fires, there is a geographical gradient of fire ignition, mainly due to variations in climate and fuel composition but also to population density for instance. The timing of fires depends on their causes. In populated areas, the timing of human-caused fires is closely linked to human activities and peaks in the afternoon whereas, in remote areas, the timing of lightning-caused fires is more linked to weather conditions and the season, with most such fires occurring in summer.

A Review of the Main Driving Factors of Forest Fire Ignition Over Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ganteaume, Anne; Camia, Andrea; Jappiot, Marielle; San-Miguel-Ayanz, Jesus; Long-Fournel, Marlène; Lampin, Corinne

2013-03-01

Knowledge of the causes of forest fires, and of the main driving factors of ignition, is an indispensable step towards effective fire prevention policies. This study analyses the factors driving forest fire ignition in the Mediterranean region including the most common human and environmental factors used for modelling in the European context. Fire ignition factors are compared to spatial and temporal variations of fire occurrence in the region, then are compared to results obtained in other areas of the world, with a special focus on North America (US and Canada) where a significant number of studies has been carried out on this topic. The causes of forest fires are varied and their distribution differs among countries, but may also differ spatially and temporally within the same country. In Europe, and especially in the Mediterranean basin, fires are mostly human-caused mainly due arson. The distance to transport networks and the distance to urban or recreation areas are among the most frequently used human factors in modelling exercises and the Wildland-Urban Interface is increasingly taken into account in the modelling of fire occurrence. Depending on the socio-economic context of the region concerned, factors such as the unemployment rate or variables linked to agricultural activity can explain the ignition of intentional and unintentional fires. Regarding environmental factors, those related to weather, fuel and topography are the most significant drivers of ignition of forest fires, especially in Mediterranean-type regions. For both human and lightning-caused fires, there is a geographical gradient of fire ignition, mainly due to variations in climate and fuel composition but also to population density for instance. The timing of fires depends on their causes. In populated areas, the timing of human-caused fires is closely linked to human activities and peaks in the afternoon whereas, in remote areas, the timing of lightning-caused fires is more linked to weather conditions and the season, with most such fires occurring in summer.

Fire scars reveal variability and dynamics of eastern fire regimes

Treesearch

Richard P. Guyette; Daniel C. Dey; Michael C. Stambaugh; Rose-Marie Muzika

2006-01-01

Fire scar evidence in eastern North America is sparse and complex but shows promise in defining the dynamics of these fire regimes and their influence on ecosystems. We review fire scar data, methods, and limitations, and use this information to identify and examine the factors influencing fire regimes. Fire scar data from studies at more than 40 sites in Eastern North...

Linking 3D spatial models of fuels and fire: Effects of spatial heterogeneity on fire behavior

Treesearch

Russell A. Parsons; William E. Mell; Peter McCauley

2011-01-01

Crownfire endangers fire fighters and can have severe ecological consequences. Prediction of fire behavior in tree crowns is essential to informed decisions in fire management. Current methods used in fire management do not address variability in crown fuels. New mechanistic physics-based fire models address convective heat transfer with computational fluid dynamics (...

Global Pyrogeography: the Current and Future Distribution of Wildfire

PubMed Central

Krawchuk, Meg A.; Moritz, Max A.; Parisien, Marc-André; Van Dorn, Jeff; Hayhoe, Katharine

2009-01-01

Climate change is expected to alter the geographic distribution of wildfire, a complex abiotic process that responds to a variety of spatial and environmental gradients. How future climate change may alter global wildfire activity, however, is still largely unknown. As a first step to quantifying potential change in global wildfire, we present a multivariate quantification of environmental drivers for the observed, current distribution of vegetation fires using statistical models of the relationship between fire activity and resources to burn, climate conditions, human influence, and lightning flash rates at a coarse spatiotemporal resolution (100 km, over one decade). We then demonstrate how these statistical models can be used to project future changes in global fire patterns, highlighting regional hotspots of change in fire probabilities under future climate conditions as simulated by a global climate model. Based on current conditions, our results illustrate how the availability of resources to burn and climate conditions conducive to combustion jointly determine why some parts of the world are fire-prone and others are fire-free. In contrast to any expectation that global warming should necessarily result in more fire, we find that regional increases in fire probabilities may be counter-balanced by decreases at other locations, due to the interplay of temperature and precipitation variables. Despite this net balance, our models predict substantial invasion and retreat of fire across large portions of the globe. These changes could have important effects on terrestrial ecosystems since alteration in fire activity may occur quite rapidly, generating ever more complex environmental challenges for species dispersing and adjusting to new climate conditions. Our findings highlight the potential for widespread impacts of climate change on wildfire, suggesting severely altered fire regimes and the need for more explicit inclusion of fire in research on global vegetation-climate change dynamics and conservation planning. PMID:19352494

Carbon, fire, and fuels: The importance of fuels and fuel characterization and the status of wildland fire fuels data for the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

French, N. H. F.; Prichard, S.; McKenzie, D.; Kennedy, M. C.; Billmire, M.; Ottmar, R. D.; Kasischke, E. S.

2016-12-01

Quantification of emissions of carbon during combustion relies on knowing three general variables: how much landscape is impacted by fire (burn area), how much carbon is in that landscape (fuel loading), and fuel properties that determine the fraction that is consumed (fuel condition). These variables also determine how much carbon remains at the site in the form of unburned organic material or char, and therefore drive post-fire carbon dynamics and pools. In this presentation we review the importance of understanding fuel type, fuel loading, and fuel condition for quantifying carbon dynamics properly during burning and for measuring and mapping fuels across landscapes, regions, and continents. Variability in fuels has been shown to be a major driver of uncertainty in fire emissions, but has had little attention until recently. We review the current state of fuel characterization for fire management and carbon accounting, and present a new approach to quantifying fuel loading for use in fire-emissions mapping and for improving fire-effects assessment. The latest results of a study funded by the Joint Fire Science Program (JFSP) are presented, where a fuel loading database is being built to quantify variation in fuel loadings, as represented in the Fuel Characteristic Classification System (FCCS), across the conterminous US and Alaska. Statistical assessments of these data at multiple spatial scales will improve tools used by fire managers and scientists to quantify fire's impact on the land, atmosphere, and carbon cycle.

Male imprisoned firesetters have different characteristics than other imprisoned offenders and require specialist treatment.

PubMed

Gannon, Theresa A; Ciardha, Caoilte Ó; Barnoux, Magali F L; Tyler, Nichola; Mozova, Katarina; Alleyne, Emma K A

2013-01-01

This study investigated whether a group of firesetters (n = 68) could be distinguished, psychologically, from a matched group of non-firesetting offenders (n = 68). Participants completed measures examining psychological variables relating to fire, emotional/self-regulation, social competency, self-concept, boredom proneness, and impression management. Official prison records were also examined to record offending history and other offense-related variables. A series of MANOVAs were conducted with conceptually related measures identified as the dependent variables. Follow-up discriminant function and clinical cut-off score analyses were also conducted to examine the best discriminating variables for firesetters. Firesetters were clearly distinguishable, statistically, from non-firesetters on three groups of conceptually related measures relating to: fire, emotional/self-regulation, and self-concept. The most successful variables for the discrimination of firesetters determined via statistical and clinical significance testing were higher levels of anger-related cognition, interest in serious fires, and identification with fire and lower levels of perceived fire safety awareness, general self-esteem, and external locus of control. Firesetters appear to be a specialist group of offenders who hold unique psychological characteristics. Firesetters are likely to require specialist treatment to target these psychological needs as opposed to generic offending behavior programs.

Fire history and pattern in a Cascade Range landscape.

Treesearch

Peter H. Morrison; Frederick J. Swanson

1990-01-01

Fire history from years 1150 to 1985 was reconstructed by analyzing forest stands in two 1940-hectare areas in the central-western Cascade Range of Oregon. Serving as records for major fire episodes, these stands revealed a highly variable fire regime. The steeper, more dissected, lower elevation Cook-Quentin study area experienced more frequent fires (natural fire...

Sundance Fire: an analysis of fire phenomena

Treesearch

Hal E. Anderson

1968-01-01

The Sundance Fire on September 1, 1967, made a spectacular run of 16 miles in 9 hours and destroyed more than 50,000 acres. This run became the subject of a detailed research analysis of the environmental, topographic, and vegetation variables aimed at reconstructing and describing fire phenomena. This report details the fire's progress; discusses the fire's...

Disturbance and productivity interactions mediate stability of forest composition and structure

Treesearch

Christopher D. O' Connor; Donald A. Falk; Ann M. Lynch; Thomas W. Swetnam; Craig P. Wilcox

2017-01-01

Fire is returning to many conifer-dominated forests where species composition and structure have been altered by fire exclusion. Ecological effects of these fires are influenced strongly by the degree of forest change during the fire-free period. Response of fire-adapted species assemblages to extended fire-free intervals is highly variable, even in communities with...

Fire effects on basal area, tiller production, and mortality of the C4 Bunchgrass, Purple Threeawn

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Fire behavior associated with wild and prescribed fires is variable, but plays a vital role in how a plant responds to fire. The relationship of fire behavior to rangeland plant community response has not been investigated, with a few exceptions, until recently. Fire is an important ecological pro...

Fire activity as a function of fire–weather seasonal severity and antecedent climate across spatial scales in southern Europe and Pacific western USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Urbieta, Itziar R.; Zavala, Gonzalo; Bedia, Joaquin; Gutierrez, Jose M.; San Miguel-Ayanz, Jesus; Camia, Andrea; Keeley, Jon E.; Moreno, Jose M.

2015-01-01

Climate has a strong influence on fire activity, varying across time and space. We analyzed the relationships between fire–weather conditions during the main fire season and antecedent water-balance conditions and fires in two Mediterranean-type regions with contrasted management histories: five southern countries of the European Union (EUMED)(all fires); the Pacific western coast of the USA (California and Oregon, PWUSA)(national forest fires). Total number of fires (≥1 ha), number of large fires (≥100 ha) and area burned were related to mean seasonal fire weather index (FWI), number of days over the 90th percentile of the FWI, and to the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) from the preceding 3 (spring) or 8 (autumn through spring) months. Calculations were made at three spatial aggregations in each area, and models related first-difference (year-to-year change) of fires and FWI/climate variables to minimize autocorrelation. An increase in mean seasonal FWI resulted in increases in the three fire variables across spatial scales in both regions. SPEI contributed little to explain fires, with few exceptions. Negative water-balance (dry) conditions from autumn through spring (SPEI8) were generally more important than positive conditions (moist) in spring (SPEI3), both of which contributed positively to fires. The R2 of the models generally improved with increasing area of aggregation. For total number of fires and area burned, the R2 of the models tended to decrease with increasing mean seasonal FWI. Thus, fires were more susceptible to change with climate variability in areas with less amenable conditions for fires (lower FWI) than in areas with higher mean FWI values. The relationships were similar in both regions, albeit weaker in PWUSA, probably due to the wider latitudinal gradient covered in PWUSA than in EUMED. The large variance explained by some of the models indicates that large-scale seasonal forecast could help anticipating fire activity in the investigated areas.

Influence of the contractile properties of muscle on motor unit firing rates during a moderate-intensity contraction in vivo.

PubMed

Trevino, Michael A; Herda, Trent J; Fry, Andrew C; Gallagher, Philip M; Vardiman, John P; Mosier, Eric M; Miller, Jonathan D

2016-08-01

It is suggested that firing rate characteristics of motor units (MUs) are influenced by the physical properties of the muscle. However, no study has correlated MU firing rates at recruitment, targeted force, or derecruitment with the contractile properties of the muscle in vivo. Twelve participants (age = 20.67 ± 2.35 yr) performed a 40% isometric maximal voluntary contraction of the leg extensors that included linearly increasing, steady force, and decreasing segments. Muscle biopsies were collected with myosin heavy chain (MHC) content quantified, and surface electromyography (EMG) was recorded from the vastus lateralis. The EMG signal was decomposed into the firing events of single MUs. Slopes and y-intercepts were calculated for 1) firing rates at recruitment vs. recruitment threshold, 2) mean firing rates at steady force vs. recruitment threshold, and 3) firing rates at derecruitment vs. derecruitment threshold relationships for each subject. Correlations among type I %MHC isoform content and the slopes and y-intercepts from the three relationships were examined. Type I %MHC isoform content was correlated with MU firing rates at recruitment (y-intercepts: r = -0.577; slopes: r = 0.741) and targeted force (slopes: r = 0.853) vs. recruitment threshold and MU firing rates at derecruitment (y-intercept: r = -0.597; slopes: r = 0.701) vs. derecruitment threshold relationships. However, the majority of the individual MU firing rates vs. recruitment and derecruitment relationships were not significant (P > 0.05) and, thus, revealed no systematic pattern. In contrast, MU firing rates during the steady force demonstrated a systematic pattern with higher firing rates for the lower- than higher-threshold MUs and were correlated with the physical properties of MUs in vivo. Copyright © 2016 the American Physiological Society.

Aboveground biomass variability across intact and degraded forests in the Brazilian Amazon

Treesearch

Marcos Longo; Michael Keller; Maiza N. dos-Santos; Veronika Leitold; Ekena R. Pinagé; Alessandro Baccini; Sassan Saatchi; Euler M. Nogueira; Mateus Batistella; Douglas C. Morton

2016-01-01

Deforestation rates have declined in the Brazilian Amazon since 2005, yet degradation from logging, fire, and fragmentation has continued in frontier forests. In this study we quantified the aboveground carbon density (ACD) in intact and degraded forests using the largest data set of integrated forest inventory plots (n = 359) and airborne lidar data (18,000 ha)...

Ecological effects of the Hayman Fire - Part 1: Historical (pre-1860) and current (1860-2002) fire regimes

Treesearch

William H. Romme; Thomas T. Veblen; Merrill R. Kaufmann; Rosemary Sherriff; Claudia M. Regan

2003-01-01

To address historical and current fire regimes in the Hayman landscape, we first present the concepts of “historical range of variability” and ”fire regime” to provide the necessary conceptual tools for evaluating fire occurrence, fire behavior, and fire effects. Next we summarize historical (pre-1860) fire frequency and fire effects for the major forest types of the...

Improving satellite-driven PM2.5 models with Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer fire counts in the southeastern U.S.

PubMed

Hu, Xuefei; Waller, Lance A; Lyapustin, Alexei; Wang, Yujie; Liu, Yang

2014-10-16

Multiple studies have developed surface PM 2.5 (particle size less than 2.5 µm in aerodynamic diameter) prediction models using satellite-derived aerosol optical depth as the primary predictor and meteorological and land use variables as secondary variables. To our knowledge, satellite-retrieved fire information has not been used for PM 2.5 concentration prediction in statistical models. Fire data could be a useful predictor since fires are significant contributors of PM 2.5 . In this paper, we examined whether remotely sensed fire count data could improve PM 2.5 prediction accuracy in the southeastern U.S. in a spatial statistical model setting. A sensitivity analysis showed that when the radius of the buffer zone centered at each PM 2.5 monitoring site reached 75 km, fire count data generally have the greatest predictive power of PM 2.5 across the models considered. Cross validation (CV) generated an R 2 of 0.69, a mean prediction error of 2.75 µg/m 3 , and root-mean-square prediction errors (RMSPEs) of 4.29 µg/m 3 , indicating a good fit between the dependent and predictor variables. A comparison showed that the prediction accuracy was improved more substantially from the nonfire model to the fire model at sites with higher fire counts. With increasing fire counts, CV RMSPE decreased by values up to 1.5 µg/m 3 , exhibiting a maximum improvement of 13.4% in prediction accuracy. Fire count data were shown to have better performance in southern Georgia and in the spring season due to higher fire occurrence. Our findings indicate that fire count data provide a measurable improvement in PM 2.5 concentration estimation, especially in areas and seasons prone to fire events.

Improving satellite-driven PM2.5 models with Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer fire counts in the southeastern U.S

PubMed Central

Hu, Xuefei; Waller, Lance A.; Lyapustin, Alexei; Wang, Yujie; Liu, Yang

2017-01-01

Multiple studies have developed surface PM2.5 (particle size less than 2.5 µm in aerodynamic diameter) prediction models using satellite-derived aerosol optical depth as the primary predictor and meteorological and land use variables as secondary variables. To our knowledge, satellite-retrieved fire information has not been used for PM2.5 concentration prediction in statistical models. Fire data could be a useful predictor since fires are significant contributors of PM2.5. In this paper, we examined whether remotely sensed fire count data could improve PM2.5 prediction accuracy in the southeastern U.S. in a spatial statistical model setting. A sensitivity analysis showed that when the radius of the buffer zone centered at each PM2.5 monitoring site reached 75 km, fire count data generally have the greatest predictive power of PM2.5 across the models considered. Cross validation (CV) generated an R2 of 0.69, a mean prediction error of 2.75 µg/m3, and root-mean-square prediction errors (RMSPEs) of 4.29 µg/m3, indicating a good fit between the dependent and predictor variables. A comparison showed that the prediction accuracy was improved more substantially from the nonfire model to the fire model at sites with higher fire counts. With increasing fire counts, CV RMSPE decreased by values up to 1.5 µg/m3, exhibiting a maximum improvement of 13.4% in prediction accuracy. Fire count data were shown to have better performance in southern Georgia and in the spring season due to higher fire occurrence. Our findings indicate that fire count data provide a measurable improvement in PM2.5 concentration estimation, especially in areas and seasons prone to fire events. PMID:28967648

TRMM Fire Algorithm, Product and Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ji, Yi-Min; Stocker, Erich

2003-01-01

Land fires are frequent menaces to human lives and property. They also change the state of the vegetation and contribute to the climate forcing by releasing large amount of aerosols and greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. This paper summarizes methodologies of detecting global land fires from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Visible Infrared Scanner FIRS) measurements. The TRMM Science Data and Information System (TSDIS) fire products include global images of daily hot spots and monthly fire counts at 0.5 deg. x 0.5 deg. resolution, as well as text fiies that details necessary information of all fire pixels. The information includes date, orbit number, pixel number, local time, solar zenith angle, latitude, longitude, reflectance of visible/near infrared channels, brightness temperatures of infrared channels, as well as background brightness temperatures of infrared channels. These products have been archived since January 1998. The TSDIS fire products are compared with the coincidental European Commission (EC) Joint Research Center (JRC) 1 km AVHRR fire products. Analyses of the TSDIS monthly fire products during the period from 1998 to 2003 manifested seasonal cycles of biomass fires over Southeast Asia, Africa, North America and South America. The data also showed interannual variations associated with the 98/99 ENS0 cycle in Central America and the Indonesian region. In order to understand the variability of global land fires and their effects on the distribution of atmospheric aerosols, statistical methods were applied to the TSDIS fire products as well as to the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) aerosol index products for a period of five years from January 1998 to December 2002. The variability of global atmospheric aerosol is consistent with the fire variations over these regions during this period. The correlation between fire count and TOMS aerosol index is about 0.55 for fire pixels in Southeast Asia, Indonesia, and Africa. Parallel statistical analyses such as Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis and Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) methods were applied to pentad TRMM fire data and TOMS aerosol data. The EOF analyses showed contrast between North and South hemispheres and also inter- continental transitions in Africa and America. EOF and SSA analyses also identified 25-60 day intra-seasonal oscillations that were superimposed on the annual cycles of both fire and aerosol data. The intra-seasonal variability of fires showed similarity of tropical rainfall oscillation modes. The TRMM fire products were also compared to the coincident TRMh4 rainfall and other rainfall products to investigate the interaction between rainfall and fire. The results indicate that the annual, interannual and intraseasonal variability of fire are dominated by global rainfall variations. However, the feedback of fire to the rainfall occurrence at regional scale for certain regions is also evident.

Patterns of Canopy and Surface Layer Consumption in a Boreal Forest Fire from Repeat Airborne Lidar

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alonzo, Michael; Morton, Douglas C.; Cook, Bruce D.; Andersen, Hans-Erik; Babcock, Chad; Pattison, Robert

2017-01-01

Fire in the boreal region is the dominant agent of forest disturbance with direct impacts on ecosystem structure, carbon cycling, and global climate. Global and biome-scale impacts are mediated by burn severity, measured as loss of forest canopy and consumption of the soil organic layer. To date, knowledge of the spatial variability in burn severity has been limited by sparse field sampling and moderate resolution satellite data. Here, we used pre- and post-fire airborne lidar data to directly estimate changes in canopy vertical structure and surface elevation for a 2005 boreal forest fire on Alaskas Kenai Peninsula. We found that both canopy and surface losses were strongly linked to pre-fire species composition and exhibited important fine-scale spatial variability at sub-30m resolution. The fractional reduction in canopy volume ranged from 0.61 in lowland black spruce stands to 0.27 in mixed white spruce and broad leaf forest. Residual structure largely reflects standing dead trees, highlighting the influence of pre-fire forest structure on delayed carbon losses from above ground biomass, post-fire albedo, and variability in understory light environments. Median loss of surface elevation was highest in lowland black spruce stands (0.18 m) but much lower in mixed stands (0.02 m), consistent with differences in pre-fire organic layer accumulation. Spatially continuous depth-of-burn estimates from repeat lidar measurements provide novel information to constrain carbon emissions from the surface organic layer and may inform related research on post-fire successional trajectories. Spectral measures of burn severity from Landsat were correlated with canopy (r = 0.76) and surface (r = -0.71) removal in black spruce stands but captured less of the spatial variability in fire effects for mixed stands (canopy r = 0.56, surface r = -0.26), underscoring the difficulty in capturing fire effects in heterogeneous boreal forest landscapes using proxy measures of burn severity from Landsat.

Average Stand Age from Forest Inventory Plots Does Not Describe Historical Fire Regimes in Ponderosa Pine and Mixed-Conifer Forests of Western North America.

PubMed

Stevens, Jens T; Safford, Hugh D; North, Malcolm P; Fried, Jeremy S; Gray, Andrew N; Brown, Peter M; Dolanc, Christopher R; Dobrowski, Solomon Z; Falk, Donald A; Farris, Calvin A; Franklin, Jerry F; Fulé, Peter Z; Hagmann, R Keala; Knapp, Eric E; Miller, Jay D; Smith, Douglas F; Swetnam, Thomas W; Taylor, Alan H

Quantifying historical fire regimes provides important information for managing contemporary forests. Historical fire frequency and severity can be estimated using several methods; each method has strengths and weaknesses and presents challenges for interpretation and verification. Recent efforts to quantify the timing of historical high-severity fire events in forests of western North America have assumed that the "stand age" variable from the US Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program reflects the timing of historical high-severity (i.e. stand-replacing) fire in ponderosa pine and mixed-conifer forests. To test this assumption, we re-analyze the dataset used in a previous analysis, and compare information from fire history records with information from co-located FIA plots. We demonstrate that 1) the FIA stand age variable does not reflect the large range of individual tree ages in the FIA plots: older trees comprised more than 10% of pre-stand age basal area in 58% of plots analyzed and more than 30% of pre-stand age basal area in 32% of plots, and 2) recruitment events are not necessarily related to high-severity fire occurrence. Because the FIA stand age variable is estimated from a sample of tree ages within the tree size class containing a plurality of canopy trees in the plot, it does not necessarily include the oldest trees, especially in uneven-aged stands. Thus, the FIA stand age variable does not indicate whether the trees in the predominant size class established in response to severe fire, or established during the absence of fire. FIA stand age was not designed to measure the time since a stand-replacing disturbance. Quantification of historical "mixed-severity" fire regimes must be explicit about the spatial scale of high-severity fire effects, which is not possible using FIA stand age data.

Average Stand Age from Forest Inventory Plots Does Not Describe Historical Fire Regimes in Ponderosa Pine and Mixed-Conifer Forests of Western North America

PubMed Central

Stevens, Jens T.; Safford, Hugh D.; North, Malcolm P.; Fried, Jeremy S.; Gray, Andrew N.; Brown, Peter M.; Dolanc, Christopher R.; Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Falk, Donald A.; Farris, Calvin A.; Franklin, Jerry F.; Fulé, Peter Z.; Hagmann, R. Keala; Knapp, Eric E.; Miller, Jay D.; Smith, Douglas F.; Swetnam, Thomas W.; Taylor, Alan H.

2016-01-01

Quantifying historical fire regimes provides important information for managing contemporary forests. Historical fire frequency and severity can be estimated using several methods; each method has strengths and weaknesses and presents challenges for interpretation and verification. Recent efforts to quantify the timing of historical high-severity fire events in forests of western North America have assumed that the “stand age” variable from the US Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program reflects the timing of historical high-severity (i.e. stand-replacing) fire in ponderosa pine and mixed-conifer forests. To test this assumption, we re-analyze the dataset used in a previous analysis, and compare information from fire history records with information from co-located FIA plots. We demonstrate that 1) the FIA stand age variable does not reflect the large range of individual tree ages in the FIA plots: older trees comprised more than 10% of pre-stand age basal area in 58% of plots analyzed and more than 30% of pre-stand age basal area in 32% of plots, and 2) recruitment events are not necessarily related to high-severity fire occurrence. Because the FIA stand age variable is estimated from a sample of tree ages within the tree size class containing a plurality of canopy trees in the plot, it does not necessarily include the oldest trees, especially in uneven-aged stands. Thus, the FIA stand age variable does not indicate whether the trees in the predominant size class established in response to severe fire, or established during the absence of fire. FIA stand age was not designed to measure the time since a stand-replacing disturbance. Quantification of historical “mixed-severity” fire regimes must be explicit about the spatial scale of high-severity fire effects, which is not possible using FIA stand age data. PMID:27196621

Patterns of canopy and surface layer consumption in a boreal forest fire from repeat airborne lidar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alonzo, Michael; Morton, Douglas C.; Cook, Bruce D.; Andersen, Hans-Erik; Babcock, Chad; Pattison, Robert

2017-05-01

Fire in the boreal region is the dominant agent of forest disturbance with direct impacts on ecosystem structure, carbon cycling, and global climate. Global and biome-scale impacts are mediated by burn severity, measured as loss of forest canopy and consumption of the soil organic layer. To date, knowledge of the spatial variability in burn severity has been limited by sparse field sampling and moderate resolution satellite data. Here, we used pre- and post-fire airborne lidar data to directly estimate changes in canopy vertical structure and surface elevation for a 2005 boreal forest fire on Alaska’s Kenai Peninsula. We found that both canopy and surface losses were strongly linked to pre-fire species composition and exhibited important fine-scale spatial variability at sub-30 m resolution. The fractional reduction in canopy volume ranged from 0.61 in lowland black spruce stands to 0.27 in mixed white spruce and broadleaf forest. Residual structure largely reflects standing dead trees, highlighting the influence of pre-fire forest structure on delayed carbon losses from aboveground biomass, post-fire albedo, and variability in understory light environments. Median loss of surface elevation was highest in lowland black spruce stands (0.18 m) but much lower in mixed stands (0.02 m), consistent with differences in pre-fire organic layer accumulation. Spatially continuous depth-of-burn estimates from repeat lidar measurements provide novel information to constrain carbon emissions from the surface organic layer and may inform related research on post-fire successional trajectories. Spectral measures of burn severity from Landsat were correlated with canopy (r = 0.76) and surface (r = -0.71) removal in black spruce stands but captured less of the spatial variability in fire effects for mixed stands (canopy r = 0.56, surface r = -0.26), underscoring the difficulty in capturing fire effects in heterogeneous boreal forest landscapes using proxy measures of burn severity from Landsat.

Influence of open vegetation fires on black carbon and ozone variability in the southern Himalayas (NCO-P, 5079 m a.s.l.).

PubMed

Putero, D; Landi, T C; Cristofanelli, P; Marinoni, A; Laj, P; Duchi, R; Calzolari, F; Verza, G P; Bonasoni, P

2014-01-01

We analysed the variability of equivalent black carbon (BC) and ozone (O3) at the global WMO/GAW station Nepal Climate Observatory-Pyramid (NCO-P, 5079 m a.s.l.) in the southern Himalayas, for evaluating the possible contribution of open vegetation fires to the variability of these short-lived climate forcers/pollutants (SLCF/SLCP) in the Himalayan region. We found that 162 days (9% of the data-set) were characterised by acute pollution events with enhanced BC and O3 in respect to the climatological values. By using satellite observations (MODIS fire products and the USGS Land Use Cover Characterization) and air mass back-trajectories, we deduced that 56% of these events were likely to be affected by emissions from open fires along the Himalayas foothills, the Indian Subcontinent and the Northern Indo-Gangetic Plain. These results suggest that open fire emissions are likely to play an important role in modulating seasonal and inter-annual BC and O3 variability over south Himalayas. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of fire on ash thickness in a Lithuanian grassland and short-term spatio-temporal changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pereira, P.; Cerdà, A.; Úbeda, X.; Mataix-Solera, J.; Martin, D.; Jordán, A.; Burguet, M.

2012-12-01

Ash thickness is a key variable in the protection of soil against erosion agents after planned and unplanned fires. Thicker ash provides better protection against raindrop impact and reduces the runoff response by retaining water and promoting water infiltration although little is known about the distribution and the evolution of the ash layer after the fires. Ash thickness measurements were conducted along two transects (flat and sloping areas) following a a grid experimental design. Both transects extended from the burned area into an adjacent unburned area. We analysed ash thickness evolution according to time and fire severity. In order to interpolate data with accuracy and identify the techniques with the least bias, several interpolation methods were tested in the grid plot. Overall, the fire had a low severity. The fire significantly reduced the ground cover, especially on sloping areas owing to the higher fire severity and/or less biomass previous to the fire. Ash thickness depends on fire severity and is thin where fire severity was higher and thicker in lower fire severity sites. The ash thickness decreased with time after the fire. Between 4 and 16 days after the fire, ash was transported by wind. The major reduction took place between 16 and 34 days after the fire as a result of rainfall, and was more efficient where fire severity was higher. Between 34 and 45 days after the fire no significant differences in ash thickness were identified among ash colours and only traces of the ash layer remained. The omni-directional experimental variograms shown that variable structure did not change importantly with the time, however, the most accurate interpolation methods were different highlighting the slight different patterns of ash thickness distribution with the time. The ash spatial variability increased with the time, particularly on the slope, as a result of water erosion.

When do correlations increase with firing rates in recurrent networks?

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

A central question in neuroscience is to understand how noisy firing patterns are used to transmit information. Because neural spiking is noisy, spiking patterns are often quantified via pairwise correlations, or the probability that two cells will spike coincidentally, above and beyond their baseline firing rate. One observation frequently made in experiments, is that correlations can increase systematically with firing rate. Theoretical studies have determined that stimulus-dependent correlations that increase with firing rate can have beneficial effects on information coding; however, we still have an incomplete understanding of what circuit mechanisms do, or do not, produce this correlation-firing rate relationship. Here, we studied the relationship between pairwise correlations and firing rates in recurrently coupled excitatory-inhibitory spiking networks with conductance-based synapses. We found that with stronger excitatory coupling, a positive relationship emerged between pairwise correlations and firing rates. To explain these findings, we used linear response theory to predict the full correlation matrix and to decompose correlations in terms of graph motifs. We then used this decomposition to explain why covariation of correlations with firing rate—a relationship previously explained in feedforward networks driven by correlated input—emerges in some recurrent networks but not in others. Furthermore, when correlations covary with firing rate, this relationship is reflected in low-rank structure in the correlation matrix. PMID:28448499

Grassland Fire and Cattle Grazing Regulate Reptile and Amphibian Assembly Among Patches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Larson, Danelle M.

2014-12-01

Fire and grazing are common management schemes of grasslands globally and are potential drivers of reptilian and amphibian (herpetofauna) metacommunity dynamics. Few studies have assessed the impacts of fire and cattle grazing on herpetofauna assemblages in grasslands. A patch-burn grazing study at Osage Prairie, MO, USA in 2011-2012 created landscape patches with treatments of grazing, fire, and such legacies. Response variables were measured before and after the application of treatments, and I used robust-design occupancy modeling to estimate patch occupancy and detection rate within patches, and recolonization and extinction (i.e., dispersal) across patches. I conducted redundancy analysis and a permuted multivariate analysis of variance to determine if patch type and the associated environmental factors explained herpetofauna assemblage. Estimates for reptiles indicate that occupancy was seasonally constant in Control patches ( ψ ~ 0.5), but declined to ψ ~ 0.15 in patches following the applications of fire and grazing. Local extinctions for reptiles were higher in patches with fire or light grazing ( ɛ ~ 0.7) compared to the controls. For the riparian herpetofaunal community, patch type and grass height were important predictors of abundance; further, the turtles, lizards, snakes, and adult amphibians used different patch types. The aquatic amphibian community was predicted by watershed and in-stream characteristics, irrespective of fire or grazing. The varying responses from taxonomic groups demonstrate habitat partitioning across multiple patch types undergoing fire, cattle grazing, and legacy effects. Prairies will need an array of patch types to accommodate multiple herpetofauna species.

Mixed-severity fire regimes in the northern Rocky Mountains: consequences of fire exclusion and options for the future

Treesearch

Stephen F. Arno; David J. Parsons; Robert E. Keane

2000-01-01

Findings from fire history studies have increasingly indicated that many forest ecosystems in the northern Rocky Mountains were shaped by mixed-severity fire regimes, characterized by fires of variable severities at intervals averaging between about 30 and 100 years. Perhaps because mixed-severity fire regimes and their resulting vegetational patterns are difficult to...

Variability of fire behavior, fire effects, and emissions in Scotch pine forests of central Siberia

Treesearch

D. J. McRae; Susan Conard; G. A. Ivanova; A. I. Sukhinin; Steve Baker; Y. N. Samsonov; T. W. Blake; V. A. Ivanov; A. V. Ivanov; T. V. Churkina; WeiMin Hao; K. P. Koutzenogij; Nataly Kovaleva

2006-01-01

As part of the Russian FIRE BEAR (Fire Effects in the Boreal Eurasia Region) Project, replicated 4-ha experimental fires were conducted on a dry Scotch pine (Pinus sylvestris)/lichen (Cladonia sp.)/feathermoss (Pleurozeum schreberi) forest site in central Siberia. Observations from the initial seven surface fires (2000-2001) ignited under a range of burning...

Radiant flux density, energy density, and fuel consumption in mixed-oak forest surface fires

Treesearch

R.L. Kremens; M.B. Dickinson; A.S. Bova

2012-01-01

Closing the wildland fire heat budget involves characterising the heat source and energy dissipation across the range of variability in fuels and fire behaviour. Meeting this challenge will lay the foundation for predicting direct ecological effects of fires and fire-atmosphere coupling. In this paper, we focus on the relationships between the fire radiation field, as...

Effects of fire intensity on vital rates of an endemic herb of the Florida keys, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Liu, H.; Menges, E.S.; Snyder, J.R.; Koptur, S.; Ross, M.S.

2005-01-01

Fire intensity is one of the important components of a fire regime. However, relatively few studies have linked fire intensity with post-fire population vital rates. In this study, we explored the effects of fire intensity on population vital rates of Chamaecrista keyensis Pennell (Fabaceae) up to two years post-fire. C. keyensis is an endemic understory plant of pine rockland, a fire-dependent ecosystem of the Lower Florida Keys. We measured one fire intensity indicator, fire temperature reached by steel plates on the ground, during three prescribed fires at different sites. We followed marked individuals up to two years post-fire to derive annual survival, annual growth rate, percentage of fruiting plants, mean number of fruits per reproductive plant, and number of seedlings per census plot (1 m2) of C. keyensis. We found fire intensity had significant effects on reproduction in the first year post-fire only. More specifically, mean number of fruits and percentage of fruiting plants increased as fire intensity increased. Results from this study suggest that extremely low fire intensity caused by very short fire return intervals (e.g., less than three years) may not provide sufficient stimulation to reproduction to achieve the best post-fire recovery for C. keyensis.

Inhibition linearizes firing rate responses in human motor units: implications for the role of persistent inward currents.

PubMed

Revill, Ann L; Fuglevand, Andrew J

2017-01-01

Motor neurons are the output neurons of the central nervous system and are responsible for controlling muscle contraction. When initially activated during voluntary contraction, firing rates of motor neurons increase steeply but then level out at modest rates. Activation of an intrinsic source of excitatory current at recruitment onset may underlie the initial steep increase in firing rate in motor neurons. We attempted to disable this intrinsic excitatory current by artificially activating an inhibitory reflex. When motor neuron activity was recorded while the inhibitory reflex was engaged, firing rates no longer increased steeply, suggesting that the intrinsic excitatory current was probably responsible for the initial sharp rise in motor neuron firing rate. During graded isometric contractions, motor unit (MU) firing rates increase steeply upon recruitment but then level off at modest rates even though muscle force continues to increase. The mechanisms underlying such firing behaviour are not known although activation of persistent inward currents (PICs) might be involved. PICs are intrinsic, voltage-dependent currents that activate strongly when motor neurons (MNs) are first recruited. Such activation might cause a sharp escalation in depolarizing current and underlie the steep initial rise in MU firing rate. Because PICs can be disabled with synaptic inhibition, we hypothesized that artificial activation of an inhibitory pathway might curb this initial steep rise in firing rate. To test this, human subjects performed slow triangular ramp contractions of the ankle dorsiflexors in the absence and presence of tonic synaptic inhibition delivered to tibialis anterior (TA) MNs by sural nerve stimulation. Firing rate profiles (expressed as a function of contraction force) of TA MUs recorded during these tasks were compared for control and stimulation conditions. Under control conditions, during the ascending phase of the triangular contractions, 93% of the firing rate profiles were best fitted by rising exponential functions. With stimulation, however, firing rate profiles were best fitted with linear functions or with less steeply rising exponentials. Firing rate profiles for the descending phases of the contractions were best fitted with linear functions for both control and stimulation conditions. These results seem consistent with the idea that PICs contribute to non-linear firing rate profiles during ascending but not descending phases of contractions. © 2016 The Authors. The Journal of Physiology © 2016 The Physiological Society.

Regionally synchronous fires in interior British Columbia, Canada, driven by interannual climate variability and weakly associated with large-scale climate patterns between AD 1600-1900

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harvey, J. E.; Smith, D. J.

2016-12-01

We investigated the influence of climate variability on forest fire occurrence in west central British Columbia (BC), Canada, between AD 1600 and 1900. Fire history was reconstructed at 8 sites in the Cariboo-Chilcotin region and we identified 46 local (fires that affected 1 site) and 16 moderate (fires that affected 2 sites) fires. Preexisting fire history data collected from nearby sites was incorporated to identify 17 regionally synchronous fire years (fires that affected ³ 3 sites). Interannual and multidecadal relationships between fire occurrence and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Pacific North American (PNA) pattern were examined, in addition to the effects of phase interactions between ENSO and PDO. We examined multiple reconstructions of PDO and ENSO and utilized three methodological approaches to characterize climate-fire relationships. We found that the influence of interannual climate expressed as PDSI, increasingly synchronized the occurrence of of fires from local to regional fires. Regional fires were associated with anomalously dry, warm conditions in the year of the fire and in years preceding the fire. We also identified an association between local fires and antecedent moisture conditions, where wetter and cooler conditions persisted 2-3 years prior to fire. This finding suggests that moisture-driven fine fuel development and proximity to grasslands could function as key determinants of local (small-scale) fire history parameters. The relationships we identified between regional fires and ENSO, PDO and PNA suggest that large-scale patterns of climate variability exert a weak and/or inconsistent influence over fire activity in west central BC between AD 1600-1900. The strongest relationships between regional fires and large-scale climate patterns were identified when ENSO and PDO were both in positive phases. We also documented a relationship between regional fires and positive years of the PNA pattern. Our findings suggest that long-term fire planning using predictions of large scale climate patterns may be limited in west central BC, however, the consideration of additive phases of ENSO and PDO, and the PNA pattern, may be effective and has been suggested by others in the inland Pacific Northwest.

Historical fire regime and forest variability on two eastern Great Basin fire-sheds (USA)

Treesearch

Stanley G. Kitchen

2012-01-01

Proper management of naturally forested landscapes requires knowledge of key disturbance processes and their effects on species composition and structure. Spatially-intensive fire and forest histories provide valuable information about how fire and vegetation may vary and interact on heterogeneous landscapes. I constructed 800-year fire and tree recruitment...

Biodiversity and fire in shortgrass steppe

Treesearch

P. L. (Paulette) Ford

2001-01-01

Effects of fire at two levels of intensity on beetle diversity in shortgrass steppe were examined. The experimental design was completely randomized, with 3 treatments and 4 replicates per treatment. Treatments were two levels of fire 1) dormant-season fire (relatively hot), and 2) growing-season fire (relatively cool), and unburned plots. The response variables were...

A neutral model of low-severity fire regimes

Treesearch

Don McKenzie; Amy E. Hessl

2008-01-01

Climate, topography, fuel loadings, and human activities all affect spatial and temporal patterns of fire occurrence. Because fire occurrence is a stochastic process, an understanding of baseline variability is necessary in order to identify constraints on surface fire regimes. With a suitable null, or neutral, model, characteristics of natural fire regimes estimated...

Using neutral models to identify constraints on low-severity fire regimes.

Treesearch

Donald McKenzie; Amy E. Hessl; Lara-Karena B. Kellogg

2006-01-01

Climate, topography, fuel loadings, and human activities all affect spatial and temporal patterns of fire occurrence. Because fire is modeled as a stochastic process, for which each fire history is only one realization, a simulation approach is necessary to understand baseline variability, thereby identifying constraints, or forcing functions, that affect fire regimes...

Firing rate of noisy integrate-and-fire neurons with synaptic current dynamics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Andrieux, David; Monnai, Takaaki; Department of Applied Physics, Waseda University, 3-4-1 Okubo, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo 169-8555

2009-08-15

We derive analytical formulas for the firing rate of integrate-and-fire neurons endowed with realistic synaptic dynamics. In particular, we include the possibility of multiple synaptic inputs as well as the effect of an absolute refractory period into the description. The latter affects the firing rate through its interaction with the synaptic dynamics.

Charts for interpreting wildland fire behavior characteristics

Treesearch

Patricia L. Andrews; Richard C. Rothermel

1982-01-01

The fire characteristics chart is proposed as a graphical method ofpresenting two primary characteristics of fire behavior – spread rate and intensity. Its primary use is communicating and interpreting either site-specific predictions of fire behavior or National Fire-Danger Rating System (NFDRS) indexes and components. Rate of spread, heat per unit area, flame length...

Efficacy of variable density thinning and prescribed fire for restoring forest heterogeneity to mixed-conifer forest in the central Sierra Nevada, CA

Treesearch

Eric E. Knapp; Jamie M. Lydersen; Malcolm P. North; Brandon M. Collins

2017-01-01

Frequent-fire forests were historically characterized by lower tree density, a higher proportion of pine species, and greater within-stand spatial variability, compared to many contemporary forests where fire has been excluded. As a result, such forests are now increasingly unstable, prone to uncharacteristically severe wildfire or high levels of tree mortality in...

RatCar system for estimating locomotion states using neural signals with parameter monitoring: Vehicle-formed brain-machine interfaces for rat.

PubMed

Fukayama, Osamu; Taniguchi, Noriyuki; Suzuki, Takafumi; Mabuchi, Kunihiko

2008-01-01

An online brain-machine interface (BMI) in the form of a small vehicle, the 'RatCar,' has been developed. A rat had neural electrodes implanted in its primary motor cortex and basal ganglia regions to continuously record neural signals. Then, a linear state space model represents a correlation between the recorded neural signals and locomotion states (i.e., moving velocity and azimuthal variances) of the rat. The model parameters were set so as to minimize estimation errors, and the locomotion states were estimated from neural firing rates using a Kalman filter algorithm. The results showed a small oscillation to achieve smooth control of the vehicle in spite of fluctuating firing rates with noises applied to the model. Major variation of the model variables converged in a first 30 seconds of the experiments and lasted for the entire one hour session.

[Forest lighting fire forecasting for Daxing'anling Mountains based on MAXENT model].

PubMed

Sun, Yu; Shi, Ming-Chang; Peng, Huan; Zhu, Pei-Lin; Liu, Si-Lin; Wu, Shi-Lei; He, Cheng; Chen, Feng

2014-04-01

Daxing'anling Mountains is one of the areas with the highest occurrence of forest lighting fire in Heilongjiang Province, and developing a lightning fire forecast model to accurately predict the forest fires in this area is of importance. Based on the data of forest lightning fires and environment variables, the MAXENT model was used to predict the lightning fire in Daxing' anling region. Firstly, we studied the collinear diagnostic of each environment variable, evaluated the importance of the environmental variables using training gain and the Jackknife method, and then evaluated the prediction accuracy of the MAXENT model using the max Kappa value and the AUC value. The results showed that the variance inflation factor (VIF) values of lightning energy and neutralized charge were 5.012 and 6.230, respectively. They were collinear with the other variables, so the model could not be used for training. Daily rainfall, the number of cloud-to-ground lightning, and current intensity of cloud-to-ground lightning were the three most important factors affecting the lightning fires in the forest, while the daily average wind speed and the slope was of less importance. With the increase of the proportion of test data, the max Kappa and AUC values were increased. The max Kappa values were above 0.75 and the average value was 0.772, while all of the AUC values were above 0.5 and the average value was 0. 859. With a moderate level of prediction accuracy being achieved, the MAXENT model could be used to predict forest lightning fire in Daxing'anling Mountains.

Forest fuels and potential fire behaviour 12 years after variable-retention harvest in lodgepole pine

Treesearch

Justin S. Crotteau; Christopher R. Keyes; Elaine K. Sutherland; David K. Wright; Joel M. Egan

2016-01-01

Variable-retention harvesting in lodgepole pine offers an alternative to conventional, even-aged management. This harvesting technique promotes structural complexity and age-class diversity in residual stands and promotes resilience to disturbance. We examined fuel loads and potential fire behaviour 12 years after two modes of variable-retention harvesting (...

Long-term Radiation Budget Variability in the Northern Eurasian Region: Assessing the Interaction with Fire

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stackhouse, P. W.; Soja, A. J.; Zhang, T.; Mikovitz, J. C.

2013-12-01

In terms of global change, boreal regions are particularly important, because significant warming and change are already evident and significant future warming is predicted. Mean global air temperature has increased by 0.74°C in the last century, and temperatures are predicted to increase by 1.8°C to 4°C by 2090, depending on the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenario. Some of the greatest temperature increases are currently found in the Northern Eurasian winter and spring, which has led to longer growing seasons, increased potential evapotranspiration and extreme fire weather [Groisman et al., 2007]. In the Siberian Sayan, winter temperatures have already exceeded a 2090 Hadley Centre scenario (HadCM3GGa1) [Soja et al., 2007]. There is evidence of climate-induced change across the circumboreal in terms of increased infestations, alterations in vegetation and increased fire regimes (area burned, fire frequency, severity and number of extreme fire seasons). In this paper, we analyzed long-term surface radiation data sets from the NASA/GEWEX (Global Energy and Water Exchanges) Surface Radiation Budget data products, CERES Surface EBAF and SYN data products and also the available surface radiation measurements in the region. First, we show that during overlap years SRB and CERES data products agree very well in terms of anomalies and we'll use this fact to evaluate 30 years of satellite based estimates of the variability of downwelling SW parameters first corresponding to locations of surface measurements and then for the region as a whole. We also show the observed variability of other SW components such as the net SW and the albedo. Next we assess the variability of the downward and LW fluxes over time and compare these to variability observed in the surface temperature and other meteorological measurements. We assess anomalies on various spatial scales. Finally, we assess the correlation of this variability in specific locations to known fire events. Extreme fires burned in Sakha and Tuva in 2002 and 2004, respectively, and in contrast, a normal fire season burned in Sakha and Tuva in 1999 and 2002, respectively. For this reason, we focus on the fire season (April - September) for 1999, 2002, and 2004. We assess these data sets for evidence of relationships between the net radiative fluxes and fire onset as well as evidence for residual influence of the fires upon the radiative budgets.

Fire characteristics charts for fire behavior and U.S. fire danger rating

Treesearch

Faith Ann Heinsch; Pat Andrews

2010-01-01

The fire characteristics chart is a graphical method of presenting U.S. National Fire Danger Rating indices or primary surface or crown fire behavior characteristics. A desktop computer application has been developed to produce fire characteristics charts in a format suitable for inclusion in reports and presentations. Many options include change of scales, colors,...

How to generate and interpret fire characteristics charts for the U.S. fire danger rating system

Treesearch

Faith Ann Heinsch; Patricia L. Andrews; Deb Tirmenstein

2017-01-01

The fire characteristics chart is a graphical method of presenting U.S. National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS) indexes and components as well as primary surface or crown fire behavior characteristics. Computer software has been developed to produce fire characteristics charts for both fire danger and fire behavior in a format suitable for inclusion in reports and...

A human-driven decline in global burned area.

PubMed

Andela, N; Morton, D C; Giglio, L; Chen, Y; van der Werf, G R; Kasibhatla, P S; DeFries, R S; Collatz, G J; Hantson, S; Kloster, S; Bachelet, D; Forrest, M; Lasslop, G; Li, F; Mangeon, S; Melton, J R; Yue, C; Randerson, J T

2017-06-30

Fire is an essential Earth system process that alters ecosystem and atmospheric composition. Here we assessed long-term fire trends using multiple satellite data sets. We found that global burned area declined by 24.3 ± 8.8% over the past 18 years. The estimated decrease in burned area remained robust after adjusting for precipitation variability and was largest in savannas. Agricultural expansion and intensification were primary drivers of declining fire activity. Fewer and smaller fires reduced aerosol concentrations, modified vegetation structure, and increased the magnitude of the terrestrial carbon sink. Fire models were unable to reproduce the pattern and magnitude of observed declines, suggesting that they may overestimate fire emissions in future projections. Using economic and demographic variables, we developed a conceptual model for predicting fire in human-dominated landscapes. Copyright © 2017 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.

Deriving forest fire ignition risk with biogeochemical process modelling.

PubMed

Eastaugh, C S; Hasenauer, H

2014-05-01

Climate impacts the growth of trees and also affects disturbance regimes such as wildfire frequency. The European Alps have warmed considerably over the past half-century, but incomplete records make it difficult to definitively link alpine wildfire to climate change. Complicating this is the influence of forest composition and fuel loading on fire ignition risk, which is not considered by purely meteorological risk indices. Biogeochemical forest growth models track several variables that may be used as proxies for fire ignition risk. This study assesses the usefulness of the ecophysiological model BIOME-BGC's 'soil water' and 'labile litter carbon' variables in predicting fire ignition. A brief application case examines historic fire occurrence trends over pre-defined regions of Austria from 1960 to 2008. Results show that summer fire ignition risk is largely a function of low soil moisture, while winter fire ignitions are linked to the mass of volatile litter and atmospheric dryness.

Deriving forest fire ignition risk with biogeochemical process modelling☆

PubMed Central

Eastaugh, C.S.; Hasenauer, H.

2014-01-01

Climate impacts the growth of trees and also affects disturbance regimes such as wildfire frequency. The European Alps have warmed considerably over the past half-century, but incomplete records make it difficult to definitively link alpine wildfire to climate change. Complicating this is the influence of forest composition and fuel loading on fire ignition risk, which is not considered by purely meteorological risk indices. Biogeochemical forest growth models track several variables that may be used as proxies for fire ignition risk. This study assesses the usefulness of the ecophysiological model BIOME-BGC's ‘soil water’ and ‘labile litter carbon’ variables in predicting fire ignition. A brief application case examines historic fire occurrence trends over pre-defined regions of Austria from 1960 to 2008. Results show that summer fire ignition risk is largely a function of low soil moisture, while winter fire ignitions are linked to the mass of volatile litter and atmospheric dryness. PMID:26109905

Characterization of the Fire Regime and Drivers of Fires in the West African Tropical Forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dwomoh, F. K.; Wimberly, M. C.

2016-12-01

The Upper Guinean forest (UGF), encompassing the tropical regions of West Africa, is a globally significant biodiversity hotspot and a critically important socio-economic and ecological resource for the region. However, the UGF is one of the most human-disturbed tropical forest ecosystems with the only remaining large patches of original forests distributed in protected areas, which are embedded in a hotspot of climate stress & land use pressures, increasing their vulnerability to fire. We hypothesized that human impacts and climate interact to drive spatial and temporal variability in fire, with fire exhibiting distinctive seasonality and sensitivity to drought in areas characterized by different population densities, agricultural practices, vegetation types, and levels of forest degradation. We used the MODIS active fire product to identify and characterize fire activity in the major ecoregions of the UGF. We used TRMM rainfall data to measure climatic variability and derived indicators of human land use from a variety of geospatial datasets. We employed time series modeling to identify the influences of drought indices and other antecedent climatic indicators on temporal patterns of active fire occurrence. We used a variety of modeling approaches to assess the influences of human activities and land cover variables on the spatial pattern of fire activity. Our results showed that temporal patterns of fire activity in the UGF were related to precipitation, but these relationships were spatially heterogeneous. The pattern of fire seasonality varied geographically, reflecting both climatological patterns and agricultural practices. The spatial pattern of fire activity was strongly associated with vegetation gradients and anthropogenic activities occurring at fine spatial scales. The Guinean forest-savanna mosaic ecoregion had the most fires. This study contributes to our understanding of UGF fire regime and the spatio-temporal dynamics of tropical forest fires in response to intense human and climatic drivers.

Linkages Among Climate, Fire, and Thermoerosion in Alaskan Tundra Over the Past Three Millennia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chipman, M. L.; Hu, F. S.

2017-12-01

Amplified Arctic warming may facilitate novel tundra disturbance regimes, as suggested by recent increases in the rate and extent of thermoerosion and fires in some tundra areas. Thermoerosion and wildfire can exacerbate warming by releasing large permafrost carbon stocks, and interactions between disturbance regimes can lead to complex ecosystem feedbacks. We conducted geochemical and charcoal analyses of lake sediments from an Alaskan lake to identify thermoerosion and fire events over the past 3,000 years. Thermoerosion was inferred from lake sediments in the context of modern soil data from retrogressive thaw slumps (RTS). Magnetic susceptibility (MS), Ca:K, and Ca:Sr increased with depth in modern RTS soils and were higher on recently exposed than older slump surfaces. Peaks in bulk density, % CaCO3, Ca:K, Ca:Sr, and MS values in the sediments suggest at least 18 thermoerosion events in the Loon Lake watershed over the past 3,000 years. Charcoal analysis identifies 22 fires over the same period at this site. Temporal variability in these records suggests climate-driven responses of both thermoerosion and fire disturbance regimes, with fewer RTS episodes and fire events during the Little Ice Age than the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Moreover, RTS activity lagged behind catchment fires by 20-30 years (>90% confidence interval), implying that fires facilitated thermoerosion on decadal time scales, possibly because of prolonged active-layer deepening following fire and postfire proliferation of insulative shrub cover. These results highlight the potential for complex interactions between climate, vegetation, and tundra disturbance in response to ongoing warming.

Co-variability of smoke and fire in the Amazon basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mishra, Amit Kumar; Lehahn, Yoav; Rudich, Yinon; Koren, Ilan

2015-05-01

The Amazon basin is a hot spot of anthropogenically-driven biomass burning, accounting for approximately 15% of total global fire emissions. It is essential to accurately measure these fires for robust regional and global modeling of key environmental processes. Here we have explored the link between spatio-temporal variability patterns in the Amazon basin's fires and the resulting smoke loading using 11 years (2002-2012) of data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) observations. Focusing on the peak burning season (July-October), our analysis shows strong inter-annual correlation between aerosol optical depth (AOD) and two MODIS fire products: fire radiative power (FRP) and fire pixel counts (FC). Among these two fire products, the FC better indicates the amount of smoke in the basin, as represented in remotely sensed AOD data. This fire product is significantly correlated both with regional AOD retrievals from MODIS and with point AOD measurements from the AERONET stations, pointing to spatial homogenization of the smoke over the basin on a seasonal time scale. However, MODIS AODs are found better than AERONET AODs observation for linking between smoke and fire. Furthermore, MODIS AOD measurements are strongly correlated with number of fires ∼10-20 to the east, most likely due to westward advection of smoke by the wind. These results can be rationalized by the regional topography and the wind regimes. Our analysis can improve data assimilation of satellite and ground-based observations into regional and global model studies, thus improving the assessment of the environmental and climatic impacts of frequency and distribution variability of the Amazon basin's fires. We also provide the optimal spatial and temporal scales for ground-based observations, which could be used for such applications.

Contrasts in short- and long-term responses of Mediterranean reptile species to fire and habitat structure.

PubMed

Santos, Xavier; Badiane, Arnaud; Matos, Cátia

2016-01-01

Changes in habitat structure constitute a major factor explaining responses of reptiles to fire. However, few studies have examined habitat factors that covary with fire-history variables to explain reptile responses. We hypothesise that more complex habitats should support richer reptile communities, and that species-specific relative abundance should be related to particular habitat features. From spring 2012-2014, twenty-five transects were surveyed in the Albera Region (north-east Iberia). The vegetation structure was measured and the extent of habitat types in a 1000-m buffer around each transect calculated. Reptile-community metrics (species richness and reptile abundance) were related to fire history, vegetation structure, and habitat types, using generalized additive models. These metrics correlated with habitat-structure variables but not with fire history. The number of species increased with more complex habitats but decreased with pine-plantation abundance in the 1000-m buffer. We found contrasting responses among reptiles in terms of time since fire and those responses differed according to vegetation variables and habitat types. An unplanned fire in August 2012 provided the opportunity to compare reptile abundance values between pre-fire and the short term (1-2 years) after the fire. Most species exhibited a negative short-term response to the 2012 fire except Tarentola mauritanica, a gecko that inhabits large rocks, as opposed to other ground-dwelling species. In the reptiles studied, contrasting responses to time since fire are consistent with the habitat-accommodation model of succession. These differences are linked to specific microhabitat preferences and suggest that functional traits can be used to predict species-specific responses to fire.

Cyclic occurrence of fire and its role in carbon dynamics along an edaphic moisture gradient in longleaf pine ecosystems.

PubMed

Whelan, Andrew; Mitchell, Robert; Staudhammer, Christina; Starr, Gregory

2013-01-01

Fire regulates the structure and function of savanna ecosystems, yet we lack understanding of how cyclic fire affects savanna carbon dynamics. Furthermore, it is largely unknown how predicted changes in climate may impact the interaction between fire and carbon cycling in these ecosystems. This study utilizes a novel combination of prescribed fire, eddy covariance (EC) and statistical techniques to investigate carbon dynamics in frequently burned longleaf pine savannas along a gradient of soil moisture availability (mesic, intermediate and xeric). This research approach allowed us to investigate the complex interactions between carbon exchange and cyclic fire along the ecological amplitude of longleaf pine. Over three years of EC measurement of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) show that the mesic site was a net carbon sink (NEE = -2.48 tonnes C ha(-1)), while intermediate and xeric sites were net carbon sources (NEE = 1.57 and 1.46 tonnes C ha(-1), respectively), but when carbon losses due to fuel consumption were taken into account, all three sites were carbon sources (10.78, 7.95 and 9.69 tonnes C ha(-1) at the mesic, intermediate and xeric sites, respectively). Nonetheless, rates of NEE returned to pre-fire levels 1-2 months following fire. Consumption of leaf area by prescribed fire was associated with reduction in NEE post-fire, and the system quickly recovered its carbon uptake capacity 30-60 days post fire. While losses due to fire affected carbon balances on short time scales (instantaneous to a few months), drought conditions over the final two years of the study were a more important driver of net carbon loss on yearly to multi-year time scales. However, longer-term observations over greater environmental variability and additional fire cycles would help to more precisely examine interactions between fire and climate and make future predictions about carbon dynamics in these systems.

Cyclic Occurrence of Fire and Its Role in Carbon Dynamics along an Edaphic Moisture Gradient in Longleaf Pine Ecosystems

PubMed Central

Whelan, Andrew; Mitchell, Robert; Staudhammer, Christina; Starr, Gregory

2013-01-01

Fire regulates the structure and function of savanna ecosystems, yet we lack understanding of how cyclic fire affects savanna carbon dynamics. Furthermore, it is largely unknown how predicted changes in climate may impact the interaction between fire and carbon cycling in these ecosystems. This study utilizes a novel combination of prescribed fire, eddy covariance (EC) and statistical techniques to investigate carbon dynamics in frequently burned longleaf pine savannas along a gradient of soil moisture availability (mesic, intermediate and xeric). This research approach allowed us to investigate the complex interactions between carbon exchange and cyclic fire along the ecological amplitude of longleaf pine. Over three years of EC measurement of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) show that the mesic site was a net carbon sink (NEE = −2.48 tonnes C ha−1), while intermediate and xeric sites were net carbon sources (NEE = 1.57 and 1.46 tonnes C ha−1, respectively), but when carbon losses due to fuel consumption were taken into account, all three sites were carbon sources (10.78, 7.95 and 9.69 tonnes C ha−1 at the mesic, intermediate and xeric sites, respectively). Nonetheless, rates of NEE returned to pre-fire levels 1–2 months following fire. Consumption of leaf area by prescribed fire was associated with reduction in NEE post-fire, and the system quickly recovered its carbon uptake capacity 30–60 days post fire. While losses due to fire affected carbon balances on short time scales (instantaneous to a few months), drought conditions over the final two years of the study were a more important driver of net carbon loss on yearly to multi-year time scales. However, longer-term observations over greater environmental variability and additional fire cycles would help to more precisely examine interactions between fire and climate and make future predictions about carbon dynamics in these systems. PMID:23335986

How well does the Post-fire Erosion Risk Management Tool (ERMiT) really work?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robichaud, Peter; Elliot, William; Lewis, Sarah; Miller, Mary Ellen

2016-04-01

The decision of where, when, and how to apply the most effective postfire erosion mitigation treatments requires land managers to assess the risk of damaging runoff and erosion events occurring after a fire. The Erosion Risk Management Tool (ERMiT) was developed to assist post fire assessment teams identify high erosion risk areas and effectiveness of various mitigation treatments to reduce that risk. ERMiT is a web-based application that uses the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) technology to estimate erosion, in probabilistic terms, on burned and recovering forest, range, and chaparral lands with and without the application of mitigation treatments. User inputs are processed by ERMiT to combine rain event variability with spatial and temporal variabilities of hillslope burn severity and soil properties which are then used as WEPP inputs. Since 2007, the model has been used in making hundreds of land management decisions in the US and elsewhere. We use eight published field study sites in the Western US to compare ERMiT predictions to observed hillslope erosion rates. Most sites experience only a few rainfall events that produced runoff and sediment except for a California site with a Mediterranean climate. When hillslope erosion occurred, significant correlations occurred between the observed hillslope erosion and those predicted by ERMiT. Significant correlation occurred for most mitigation treatments as well as the five recovery years. These model validation results suggest reasonable estimates of probabilistic post-fire hillslope sediment delivery when compared to observation.

Multivariable nonlinear analysis of foreign exchange rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suzuki, Tomoya; Ikeguchi, Tohru; Suzuki, Masuo

2003-05-01

We analyze the multivariable time series of foreign exchange rates. These are price movements that have often been analyzed, and dealing time intervals and spreads between bid and ask prices. Considering dealing time intervals as event timing such as neurons’ firings, we use raster plots (RPs) and peri-stimulus time histograms (PSTHs) which are popular methods in the field of neurophysiology. Introducing special processings to obtaining RPs and PSTHs time histograms for analyzing exchange rates time series, we discover that there exists dynamical interaction among three variables. We also find that adopting multivariables leads to improvements of prediction accuracy.

Influence of slope on fire spread rate

Treesearch

B.W. Butler; W.R. Anderson; E.A. Catchpole

2007-01-01

Data demonstrate the effect of slope on heading and backing fires burning through woody fuels. The data indicate that the upper limit of heading fire rate of spread is defined by the rate of spread up a vertical fuel array, and the lower limit is defined by the rate of spread of a backing fire burning downslope. The minimum spread rate is found to occur at nominally --...

Fire danger rating in the United States of America: An evolution since 1916

Treesearch

Colin C. Hardy; Charles E. Hardy

2007-01-01

Fire scientists in the United States began exploring the relationships of fire-danger and hazard with weather, fuel moisture, and ignition probabilities as early as 1916. Many of the relationships identified then persist today in the form of our National Fire-Danger-Rating System. This paper traces the evolution of fire-danger rating in the United States, including...

Interactive effects of fire, soil climate, and moss on CO2 fluxes in black spruce ecosystems of interior Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Donnell, J. A.; Turetsky, M.R.; Harden, J.W.; Manies, K.L.; Pruett, L.E.; Shetler, G.; Neff, J.C.

2009-01-01

Fire is an important control on the carbon (C) balance of the boreal forest region. Here, we present findings from two complementary studies that examine how fire modifies soil organic matter properties, and how these modifications influence rates of decomposition and C exchange in black spruce (Picea mariana) ecosystems of interior Alaska. First, we used laboratory incubations to explore soil temperature, moisture, and vegetation effects on CO2 and DOC production rates in burned and unburned soils from three study regions in interior Alaska. Second, at one of the study regions used in the incubation experiments, we conducted intensive field measurements of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and ecosystem respiration (ER) across an unreplicated factorial design of burning (2 year post-fire versus unburned sites) and drainage class (upland forest versus peatland sites). Our laboratory study showed that burning reduced the sensitivity of decomposition to increased temperature, most likely by inducing moisture or substrate quality limitations on decomposition rates. Burning also reduced the decomposability of Sphagnum-derived organic matter, increased the hydrophobicity of feather moss-derived organic matter, and increased the ratio of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) to total dissolved nitrogen (TDN) in both the upland and peatland sites. At the ecosystem scale, our field measurements indicate that the surface organic soil was generally wetter in burned than in unburned sites, whereas soil temperature was not different between the burned and unburned sites. Analysis of variance results showed that ER varied with soil drainage class but not by burn status, averaging 0.9 ?? 0.1 and 1.4 ?? 0.1 g C m-2d-1 in the upland and peatland sites, respectively. However, a more complex general linear model showed that ER was controlled by an interaction between soil temperature, moisture, and burn status, and in general was less variable over time in the burned than in the unburned sites. Together, findings from these studies across different spatial scales suggest that although fire can create some soil climate conditions more conducive to rapid decomposition, rates of C release from soils may be constrained following fire by changes in moisture and/or substrate quality that impede rates of decomposition. ?? 2008 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

Interactive effects of fire, soil climate, and moss on CO2 fluxes in black spruce ecosystems of interior Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Donnell, Jonathan A.; Turetsky, Merritt R.; Harden, Jennifer W.; Manies, Kristen L.; Pruett, L.E.; Shetler, Gordon; Neff, Jason C.

2009-01-01

Fire is an important control on the carbon (C) balance of the boreal forest region. Here, we present findings from two complementary studies that examine how fire modifies soil organic matter properties, and how these modifications influence rates of decomposition and C exchange in black spruce (Picea mariana) ecosystems of interior Alaska. First, we used laboratory incubations to explore soil temperature, moisture, and vegetation effects on CO2 and DOC production rates in burned and unburned soils from three study regions in interior Alaska. Second, at one of the study regions used in the incubation experiments, we conducted intensive field measurements of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and ecosystem respiration (ER) across an unreplicated factorial design of burning (2 year post-fire versus unburned sites) and drainage class (upland forest versus peatland sites). Our laboratory study showed that burning reduced the sensitivity of decomposition to increased temperature, most likely by inducing moisture or substrate quality limitations on decomposition rates. Burning also reduced the decomposability of Sphagnum-derived organic matter, increased the hydrophobicity of feather moss-derived organic matter, and increased the ratio of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) to total dissolved nitrogen (TDN) in both the upland and peatland sites. At the ecosystem scale, our field measurements indicate that the surface organic soil was generally wetter in burned than in unburned sites, whereas soil temperature was not different between the burned and unburned sites. Analysis of variance results showed that ER varied with soil drainage class but not by burn status, averaging 0.9 ± 0.1 and 1.4 ± 0.1 g C m−2 d−1 in the upland and peatland sites, respectively. However, a more complex general linear model showed that ER was controlled by an interaction between soil temperature, moisture, and burn status, and in general was less variable over time in the burned than in the unburned sites. Together, findings from these studies across different spatial scales suggest that although fire can create some soil climate conditions more conducive to rapid decomposition, rates of C release from soils may be constrained following fire by changes in moisture and/or substrate quality that impede rates of decomposition.

Challenges and a checklist for biodiversity conservation in fire-prone forests: perspecitves from the Pacific Northwest of USA and Southeastern Australia

Treesearch

Thomas A. Spies; David B. Lindenmayer; A. Malcolm Gill; Scott L. Stephens; James K. Agee

2012-01-01

Conserving biodiversity in fire-prone forest ecosystems is challenging for several reasons including differing and incomplete conceptual models of fire-related ecological processes, major gaps in ecological and management knowledge, high variability in fire behavior and ecological responses to fires, altered fire regimes as a result of land-use history and climate...

Fuel variability following wildfire in forests with mixed severity fire regimes, Cascade Range, USA

Treesearch

Jessica L. Hudec; David L. Peterson

2012-01-01

Fire severity influences post-burn structure and composition of a forest and the potential for a future fire to burn through the area. The effects of fire on forests with mixed severity fire regimes are difficult to predict and interpret because the quantity, structure, and composition of forest fuels vary considerably. This study examines the relationship between fire...

Fire history reflects human history in the Pine Creek Gorge of north-central Pennsylvania

Treesearch

Patrick H. Brose; Richard P. Guyette; Joseph M. Marschall; Michael C. Stambaugh

2015-01-01

Fire history studies are important tools for understanding past fire regimes and the roles humans played in those regimes. Beginning in 2010, we conducted a fire history study in the Pine Creek Gorge area of north-central Pennsylvania to ascertain the number of fires and fire-free intervals, their variability through time, and the role of human influences. We collected...

Characterization of a mine fire using atmospheric monitoring system sensor data.

PubMed

Yuan, L; Thomas, R A; Zhou, L

2017-06-01

Atmospheric monitoring systems (AMS) have been widely used in underground coal mines in the United States for the detection of fire in the belt entry and the monitoring of other ventilation-related parameters such as airflow velocity and methane concentration in specific mine locations. In addition to an AMS being able to detect a mine fire, the AMS data have the potential to provide fire characteristic information such as fire growth - in terms of heat release rate - and exact fire location. Such information is critical in making decisions regarding fire-fighting strategies, underground personnel evacuation and optimal escape routes. In this study, a methodology was developed to calculate the fire heat release rate using AMS sensor data for carbon monoxide concentration, carbon dioxide concentration and airflow velocity based on the theory of heat and species transfer in ventilation airflow. Full-scale mine fire experiments were then conducted in the Pittsburgh Mining Research Division's Safety Research Coal Mine using an AMS with different fire sources. Sensor data collected from the experiments were used to calculate the heat release rates of the fires using this methodology. The calculated heat release rate was compared with the value determined from the mass loss rate of the combustible material using a digital load cell. The experimental results show that the heat release rate of a mine fire can be calculated using AMS sensor data with reasonable accuracy.

The benefits of data linkage for firefighter injury surveillance

PubMed Central

Widman, Shannon A; LeVasseur, Michael T; Tabb, Loni P

2018-01-01

Background While survey data are available for national estimates of fire events and firefighter fatalities, data on firefighter injury at the national and local levels remain incomplete and unreliable. Data linkage provides a vehicle to maximise case detection and deepen injury description for the US fire service. Methods By linking departmental Human Resources records, despatch data, workers' compensation and first reports of injury, researchers were able to describe reported non-fatal injuries to 3063 uniformed members of the Philadelphia Fire Department (PFD), for the period of 2005 through 2013. Results Among all four databases, the overall linkage rate was 56%. Among three of the four databases, the linkage rate was 88%. Because there was duplication of some variables among the datasets, we were able to deeply describe all the linked injuries in the master database. 45.5% of uniformed PFD members reported at least one injury during the study period. Strains, falls, burns and struck-by injuries were the most common causes. Burns resulted in the highest lost time claim payout, and strains accounted for the highest medical claim cost. More than 70% of injuries occurred in the first 15 years of experience. Discussion Data linkage provided three new benefits: (1) creation of a new variable—years of experience, (2) reduction of misclassification bias when determining cause of injury, leading to more accurate estimates of cost and (3) visualisation of injury rates when controlling for the number of fire department responses, allowing for the generation of hypotheses to investigate injury hot spots. PMID:28196830

Contrasting spatial patterns in active-fire and fire-suppressed Mediterranean climate old-growth mixed conifer forests

Treesearch

Danny L. Fry; Scott L. Stephens; Brandon M. Collins; Malcolm North; Ernesto Franco-Vizcaino; Samantha J. Gill

2014-01-01

In Mediterranean environments in western North America, historic fire regimes in frequent-fire conifer forests are highly variable both temporally and spatially. This complexity influenced forest structure and spatial patterns, but some of this diversity has been lost due to anthropogenic disruption of ecosystem processes, including fire. Information from reference...

Measurements of reactive trace gases and variable O3 formation rates in some South Carolina biomass burning plumes

Treesearch

S. K. Akagi; R. J. Yokelson; I. R. Burling; S. Meinardi; I. Simpson; D. R. Blake; G. R. McMeeking; A. Sullivan; T. Lee; S. Kreidenweis; S. Urbanski; J. Reardon; D. W. T. Griffith; T. J. Johnson; D. R. Weise

2013-01-01

In October-November 2011 we measured trace gas emission factors from seven prescribed fires in South Carolina (SC), US, using two Fourier transform infrared spectrometer (FTIR) systems and whole air sampling (WAS) into canisters followed by gas- 5 chromatographic analysis. A total of 97 trace gas species were quantified from both airborne and ground-based sampling...

Introduction to fire danger rating and remote sensing - Will remote sensing enhance wildland fire danger prediction?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Allgöwer, Britta; Carlson, J.D.; Van Wagtendonk, Jan W.; Chuvieco, Emilio

2003-01-01

While ‘Fire Danger’ per se cannot be measured, the physical properties of the biotic and abiotic world that relate to fire occurrence and fire behavior can. Today, increasingly sophisticated Remote Sensing methods are being developed to more accurately detect fuel properties such as species composition (fuel types), vegetation structure or plant water content - to name a few. Based on meteorological input data and physical, semi-physical or empirical model calculations, Wildland Fire Danger Rating Systems provide ‘indirect values’ - numerical indices - at different temporal scales (e.g., daily, weekly, monthly) denoting the physical conditions that may lead to fire ignition and support fire propagation. The results can be expressed as fire danger levels, ranging from ‘low’ to ‘very high’, and are commonly used in operational wildland fire management (e.g., the Canadian Fire Weather Index [FWI] System, the Russian Nesterov Index, or the U.S. National Fire Danger Rating System [NFDRS]). Today, fire danger levels are often turned into broad scale maps with the help of Geographical Information Systems (GIS) showing the areas with the different fire danger levels, and are distributed via the World Wide Web.In this chapter we will outline some key issues dealing with Remote Sensing and GIS techniques that are covered in the following chapters, and elaborate how the Fire Danger Rating concepts could be integrated into a framework that enables comprehensive and sustainable wildland fire risk assessment. To do so, we will first raise some general thoughts about wildland fires and suggest how to approach this extremely complex phenomenon. Second, we will outline a possible fire risk analysis framework and third we will give a short overview on existing Fire Danger Rating Systems and the principles behind them.

The critical role of fire in catchment coevolution in South Eastern Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nyman, P.; Inbar, A.; Lane, P. N. J.; Sheridan, G. J.

2016-12-01

Temperate south east Australian forested uplands are characterised by complex spatial patterns in forest types, soils and fire regimes, even within areas with similar geologies and landscape position. Preliminary measurements and experiments suggest that positive and negative feedbacks between the vegetation, fuels, fire frequency and soil erosion may control the coevolution of these observed system states. Here we propose the hypotheses that in this landscape post-fire soil erosion has played a dominant role in the coevolved system-state combinations of standing biomass, fire frequency and soil depth. To test the hypothesis a 1D simulation model was developed that links together an ecohydrological model to drive the biomass production and water and energy partitioning, a stochastic fire model that is controlled by climate, fuel load and moisture conditions, and a geomorphic model that controls soil production and fluvial and diffusive sediment transport rates. The model was calibrated to the range of existing observed quasi-equalibrium system-states of soil depth, standing biomass, fuel loading and fire frequency using field measurements from 12 instrumented eco-hydrologic microclimate research sites. The long-term partitioning of rainfall into evaporation, transpiration, and streamflow was calibrated against field and literature values. Fuel moisture and micro-climate variables were calibrated to the field microclimate stations. The calibrated model was able to reasonably replicate the observed quasi-equilibrium system-states and hydrologic outputs using current climate forcings operating over a 10,000 year period, providing confidence in the model structure and performance. The model was then used to test the hypothesis stated above, by alternatively including or excluding the post fire erosion process. An alternate hypothesis, whereby the observed system states are dominated by climate related differences in soil production rates was also tested in this way. The results support the hypothesis that feedbacks between fire, ecology, hydrology and geomorphology have played a critical role in the coevolution of south east Australian forested uplands. Similar pyro-eco-hydrologic feedbacks may play a critical role in catchment coevolution in other forested systems globally.

A Complex-Valued Firing-Rate Model That Approximates the Dynamics of Spiking Networks

PubMed Central

Schaffer, Evan S.; Ostojic, Srdjan; Abbott, L. F.

2013-01-01

Firing-rate models provide an attractive approach for studying large neural networks because they can be simulated rapidly and are amenable to mathematical analysis. Traditional firing-rate models assume a simple form in which the dynamics are governed by a single time constant. These models fail to replicate certain dynamic features of populations of spiking neurons, especially those involving synchronization. We present a complex-valued firing-rate model derived from an eigenfunction expansion of the Fokker-Planck equation and apply it to the linear, quadratic and exponential integrate-and-fire models. Despite being almost as simple as a traditional firing-rate description, this model can reproduce firing-rate dynamics due to partial synchronization of the action potentials in a spiking model, and it successfully predicts the transition to spike synchronization in networks of coupled excitatory and inhibitory neurons. PMID:24204236

Compounding nonlinearities in the climate and wildfire system contribute to high uncertainty in estimates of future burned area in the western United State

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, P.

2015-12-01

Ecological studies are increasingly recognizing the importance of atmospheric vapor-pressure deficit (VPD) as a driver of forest drought stress and disturbance processes such as wildfire. Because of the nonlinear Clausius-Clapeyron relationship between temperature and saturation vapor pressure, small variations in temperature can have large impacts on VPD, and therefore drought, particularly in warm, dry areas and particularly during the warm season. It is also clear that VPD and drought affect forest fire nonlinearly, as incremental drying leads to increasingly large burned areas. Forest fire is also affected by fuel amount and connectivity, which are promoted by vegetation growth in previous years, which is in turn promoted by lack of drought, highlighting the importance of nuances in the sequencing of natural interannual climate variations in modulating the impacts of drought on wildfire. The many factors affecting forest fire, and the nonlinearities embedded within the climate and wildfire systems, cause interannual variability in forest-fire area and frequency to be wildly variable and strongly affected by internal climate variability. In addition, warming over the past century has produced a background increase in forest fire frequency and area in many regions. In this talk I focus on the western United States and will explore whether the relationships between internal climate variability on forest fire area have been amplified by the effects of warming as a result of the compounding nonlinearities described above. I will then explore what this means for future burned area in the western United States and make the case that uncertainties in the future global greenhouse gas emissions trajectory, model projections of mean temperatures, model projections of precipitation, and model projections of natural climate variability translate to very large uncertainties in the effects of future climate variability on forest fire area in the United States and globally.

A land management history for central Queensland, Australia as determined from land-holder questionnaire and aerial photography.

PubMed

Fensham, Roderick J; Fairfax, Russell J

2003-08-01

Features of the land management history over a 125,755 km(2) area of central Queensland, Australia were determined from a variety of sources. A random sample of 205 site locations provided the basis for determining trends in land use. Trends in vegetation clearing were determined using sequential aerial photography for the sample sites, revealing a steady rate averaging nearly 1% of the region per annum over 41 years. This measure of sustained clearing over a large region is higher than recently published clearing rates from South America. Land types have been selectively cleared with over 90% of the Acacia on clay land type having been cleared. A land-holder questionnaire pertaining to the random sites yielded a response rate of 71% and provided information on vegetation clearing, ploughing, tree killing (ring-barking or tree poisoning), and fire frequency, season and intensity. The land-holder responses were compared with independent data sources where possible and revealed no mis-information. However, land-holders may have been marginally less likely to respond if the sample area had been cleared, although this effect was not statistically significant. Ploughing and tree killing are variable depending on land type, but the former has affected about 40% of the Acacia on clay land type, effectively eliminating options for natural regrowth. The proportion of decade-site combinations that were reported as having no fires increased from 22% in the 1950s to an average of 42% for subsequent decades, although the reporting of more than one fire per decade has been relatively constant through the study period. The reporting of at least one fire per decade varies from 46% for the Acacia on sand land type to 77% for the Eucalypt on sand land type for decade-site combinations. Fires are more intense when associated with clearing than in uncleared vegetation, but the proportion of cool and hot fires is relatively constant between land types in uncleared vegetation. Nearly all fires reported were either in spring or summer and this seasonally restricted regime is probably at variance with Aboriginal fire regimes. This study describes the rapid transformation of central Queensland. This has yielded substantially increased agricultural production but may also result in a range of negative impacts and these are discussed.

Evaluation of fire recurrence effect on genetic diversity in maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Ait.) stands using Inter-Simple Sequence Repeat profiles.

PubMed

Lucas-Borja, M E; Ahrazem, O; Candel-Pérez, D; Moya, D; Fonseca, T; Hernández Tecles, E; De Las Heras, J; Gómez-Gómez, L

2016-12-01

The management of maritime pine in fire-prone habitats is a challenging task and fine-scale population genetic analyses are necessary to check if different fire recurrences affect genetic variability. The objective of this study was to assess the effect of fire recurrence on maritime pine genetic diversity using inter-simple sequence repeat markers (ISSR). Three maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Ait.) populations from Northern Portugal were chosen to characterize the genetic variability among populations. In relation to fire recurrence, Seirós population was affected by fire both in 1990 and 2005 whereas Vila Seca-2 population was affected by fire just in 2005. The Vila Seca-1 population has been never affected by fire. Our results showed the highest Nei's genetic diversity (He=0.320), Shannon information index (I=0.474) and polymorphic loci (PPL=87.79%) among samples from twice burned populations (Seirós site). Thus, fire regime plays an important role affecting genetic diversity in the short-term, although not generating maritime pine genetic erosion. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effects of fire frequency and season on resprouting of woody plants in southeastern US pine-grassland communities.

PubMed

Robertson, Kevin M; Hmielowski, Tracy L

2014-03-01

Past studies suggest that rates of woody plant resprouting following a "topkilling" disturbance relate to timing of disturbance because of temporal patterns of below-ground carbohydrate storage. Accordingly, we hypothesized that fire-return interval (1 or 2 years) and season of burn (late dormant or early growing season) would influence the change in resprout growth rate from one fire-free interval to the next (Δ growth rate) for broadleaf woody plants in a pine-grassland in Georgia, USA. Resprout growth rate during one fire-free interval strongly predicted growth rate during the following fire-free interval, presumably reflecting root biomass. Length of fire-free interval did not have a significant effect on mean Δ growth rate. Plants burned in the late dormant season (February-March) had a greater positive Δ growth rate than those burned in the early growing season (April-June), consistent with the presumption that root carbohydrates are depleted and thus limiting during spring growth. Plants with resprout growth rates above a certain level had zero or negative Δ growth rates, indicating an equilibrium of maximum resprout size under a given fire-return interval. This equilibrium, as well as relatively reduced resprout growth rate following growing season fires, provide insight into how historic lightning-initiated fires in the early growing season limited woody plant dominance and maintained the herb-dominated structure of pine-grassland communities. Results also indicate tradeoffs between applying prescribed fire at 1- versus 2-year intervals and in the dormant versus growing seasons with the goal of limiting woody vegetation.

Biomonitoring of chemical exposure among New York City firefighters responding to the World Trade Center fire and collapse.

PubMed

Edelman, Philip; Osterloh, John; Pirkle, James; Caudill, Sam P; Grainger, James; Jones, Robert; Blount, Ben; Calafat, Antonia; Turner, Wayman; Feldman, Debra; Baron, Sherry; Bernard, Bruce; Lushniak, Boris D; Kelly, Kerry; Prezant, David

2003-12-01

The collapse of the World Trade Center (WTC) on 11 September 2001 exposed New York City firefighters to smoke and dust of unprecedented magnitude and duration. The chemicals and the concentrations produced from any fire are difficult to predict, but estimates of internal dose exposures can be assessed by the biological monitoring of blood and urine. We analyzed blood and urine specimens obtained from 321 firefighters responding to the WTC fires and collapse for 110 potentially fire-related chemicals. Controls consisted of 47 firefighters not present at the WTC. Sampling occurred 3 weeks after 11 September, while fires were still burning. When reference or background ranges were available, most chemical concentrations were found to be generally low and not outside these ranges. Compared with controls, the exposed firefighters showed significant differences in adjusted geometric means for six of the chemicals and significantly greater detection rates for an additional three. Arrival time was a significant predictor variable for four chemicals. Special Operations Command firefighters (n = 95), compared with other responding WTC firefighters (n = 226), had differences in concentrations or detection rate for 14 of the chemicals. Values for the Special Operations Command firefighters were also significantly different from the control group values for these same chemicals and for two additional chemicals. Generally, the chemical concentrations in the other firefighter group were not different from those of controls. Biomonitoring was used to characterize firefighter exposure at the WTC disaster. Although some of the chemicals analyzed showed statistically significant differences, these differences were generally small.

Prototypic and Arkypallidal Neurons in the Dopamine-Intact External Globus Pallidus

PubMed Central

Abdi, Azzedine; Mallet, Nicolas; Mohamed, Foad Y.; Sharott, Andrew; Dodson, Paul D.; Nakamura, Kouichi C.; Suri, Sana; Avery, Sophie V.; Larvin, Joseph T.; Garas, Farid N.; Garas, Shady N.; Vinciati, Federica; Morin, Stéphanie; Bezard, Erwan

2015-01-01

Studies in dopamine-depleted rats indicate that the external globus pallidus (GPe) contains two main types of GABAergic projection cell; so-called “prototypic” and “arkypallidal” neurons. Here, we used correlative anatomical and electrophysiological approaches in rats to determine whether and how this dichotomous organization applies to the dopamine-intact GPe. Prototypic neurons coexpressed the transcription factors Nkx2-1 and Lhx6, comprised approximately two-thirds of all GPe neurons, and were the major GPe cell type innervating the subthalamic nucleus (STN). In contrast, arkypallidal neurons expressed the transcription factor FoxP2, constituted just over one-fourth of GPe neurons, and innervated the striatum but not STN. In anesthetized dopamine-intact rats, molecularly identified prototypic neurons fired at relatively high rates and with high regularity, regardless of brain state (slow-wave activity or spontaneous activation). On average, arkypallidal neurons fired at lower rates and regularities than prototypic neurons, and the two cell types could be further distinguished by the temporal coupling of their firing to ongoing cortical oscillations. Complementing the activity differences observed in vivo, the autonomous firing of identified arkypallidal neurons in vitro was slower and more variable than that of prototypic neurons, which tallied with arkypallidal neurons displaying lower amplitudes of a “persistent” sodium current important for such pacemaking. Arkypallidal neurons also exhibited weaker driven and rebound firing compared with prototypic neurons. In conclusion, our data support the concept that a dichotomous functional organization, as actioned by arkypallidal and prototypic neurons with specialized molecular, structural, and physiological properties, is fundamental to the operations of the dopamine-intact GPe. PMID:25926446

On the Spike Train Variability Characterized by Variance-to-Mean Power Relationship.

PubMed

Koyama, Shinsuke

2015-07-01

We propose a statistical method for modeling the non-Poisson variability of spike trains observed in a wide range of brain regions. Central to our approach is the assumption that the variance and the mean of interspike intervals are related by a power function characterized by two parameters: the scale factor and exponent. It is shown that this single assumption allows the variability of spike trains to have an arbitrary scale and various dependencies on the firing rate in the spike count statistics, as well as in the interval statistics, depending on the two parameters of the power function. We also propose a statistical model for spike trains that exhibits the variance-to-mean power relationship. Based on this, a maximum likelihood method is developed for inferring the parameters from rate-modulated spike trains. The proposed method is illustrated on simulated and experimental spike trains.

Fire-danger rating and observed wildfire behavior in the Northeastern United States.

Treesearch

Donald A. Haines; William A. Main; Albert J. Simard

1986-01-01

Compares the 1978 National Fire-Danger Rating System and its 20 fuel models, along with other danger rating systems, with observed fire behavior and rates the strengths and weaknesses of models and systems.

Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests.

PubMed

Abatzoglou, John T; Williams, A Park

2016-10-18

Increased forest fire activity across the western continental United States (US) in recent decades has likely been enabled by a number of factors, including the legacy of fire suppression and human settlement, natural climate variability, and human-caused climate change. We use modeled climate projections to estimate the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to observed increases in eight fuel aridity metrics and forest fire area across the western United States. Anthropogenic increases in temperature and vapor pressure deficit significantly enhanced fuel aridity across western US forests over the past several decades and, during 2000-2015, contributed to 75% more forested area experiencing high (>1 σ) fire-season fuel aridity and an average of nine additional days per year of high fire potential. Anthropogenic climate change accounted for ∼55% of observed increases in fuel aridity from 1979 to 2015 across western US forests, highlighting both anthropogenic climate change and natural climate variability as important contributors to increased wildfire potential in recent decades. We estimate that human-caused climate change contributed to an additional 4.2 million ha of forest fire area during 1984-2015, nearly doubling the forest fire area expected in its absence. Natural climate variability will continue to alternate between modulating and compounding anthropogenic increases in fuel aridity, but anthropogenic climate change has emerged as a driver of increased forest fire activity and should continue to do so while fuels are not limiting.

Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abatzoglou, John T.; Park Williams, A.

2016-10-01

Increased forest fire activity across the western continental United States (US) in recent decades has likely been enabled by a number of factors, including the legacy of fire suppression and human settlement, natural climate variability, and human-caused climate change. We use modeled climate projections to estimate the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to observed increases in eight fuel aridity metrics and forest fire area across the western United States. Anthropogenic increases in temperature and vapor pressure deficit significantly enhanced fuel aridity across western US forests over the past several decades and, during 2000-2015, contributed to 75% more forested area experiencing high (>1 σ) fire-season fuel aridity and an average of nine additional days per year of high fire potential. Anthropogenic climate change accounted for ˜55% of observed increases in fuel aridity from 1979 to 2015 across western US forests, highlighting both anthropogenic climate change and natural climate variability as important contributors to increased wildfire potential in recent decades. We estimate that human-caused climate change contributed to an additional 4.2 million ha of forest fire area during 1984-2015, nearly doubling the forest fire area expected in its absence. Natural climate variability will continue to alternate between modulating and compounding anthropogenic increases in fuel aridity, but anthropogenic climate change has emerged as a driver of increased forest fire activity and should continue to do so while fuels are not limiting.

Chapter 9 - Monitoring survival of fire-injured trees in Oregon and Washington (Project WC-F-08-03)

Treesearch

Robert A. Progar; Lisa Ganio; Lindsay Grayson; Sharon M. Hood

2018-01-01

Wild and prescribed fire injury to trees can produce mortality that is not immediately apparent, and environmental stress subsequent to a fire may also contribute to tree mortality in the years after a fire (Hood and Bentz 2007). In order to predict post-fire tree mortality from fire injury variables before tree mortality is clearly apparent, dozens of statistical...

Fire and deforestation dynamics in Amazonia (1973-2014).

PubMed

van Marle, Margreet J E; Field, Robert D; van der Werf, Guido R; Estrada de Wagt, Ivan A; Houghton, Richard A; Rizzo, Luciana V; Artaxo, Paulo; Tsigaridis, Kostas

2017-01-01

Consistent long-term estimates of fire emissions are important to understand the changing role of fire in the global carbon cycle and to assess the relative importance of humans and climate in shaping fire regimes. However, there is limited information on fire emissions from before the satellite era. We show that in the Amazon region, including the Arc of Deforestation and Bolivia, visibility observations derived from weather stations could explain 61% of the variability in satellite-based estimates of bottom-up fire emissions since 1997 and 42% of the variability in satellite-based estimates of total column carbon monoxide concentrations since 2001. This enabled us to reconstruct the fire history of this region since 1973 when visibility information became available. Our estimates indicate that until 1987 relatively few fires occurred in this region and that fire emissions increased rapidly over the 1990s. We found that this pattern agreed reasonably well with forest loss data sets, indicating that although natural fires may occur here, deforestation and degradation were the main cause of fires. Compared to fire emissions estimates based on Food and Agricultural Organization's Global Forest and Resources Assessment data, our estimates were substantially lower up to the 1990s, after which they were more in line. These visibility-based fire emissions data set can help constrain dynamic global vegetation models and atmospheric models with a better representation of the complex fire regime in this region.

Neural network regulation driven by autonomous neural firings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cho, Myoung Won

2016-07-01

Biological neurons naturally fire spontaneously due to the existence of a noisy current. Such autonomous firings may provide a driving force for network formation because synaptic connections can be modified due to neural firings. Here, we study the effect of autonomous firings on network formation. For the temporally asymmetric Hebbian learning, bidirectional connections lose their balance easily and become unidirectional ones. Defining the difference between reciprocal connections as new variables, we could express the learning dynamics as if Ising model spins interact with each other in magnetism. We present a theoretical method to estimate the interaction between the new variables in a neural system. We apply the method to some network systems and find some tendencies of autonomous neural network regulation.

Optimal firing rate estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Paulin, M. G.; Hoffman, L. F.

2001-01-01

We define a measure for evaluating the quality of a predictive model of the behavior of a spiking neuron. This measure, information gain per spike (Is), indicates how much more information is provided by the model than if the prediction were made by specifying the neuron's average firing rate over the same time period. We apply a maximum Is criterion to optimize the performance of Gaussian smoothing filters for estimating neural firing rates. With data from bullfrog vestibular semicircular canal neurons and data from simulated integrate-and-fire neurons, the optimal bandwidth for firing rate estimation is typically similar to the average firing rate. Precise timing and average rate models are limiting cases that perform poorly. We estimate that bullfrog semicircular canal sensory neurons transmit in the order of 1 bit of stimulus-related information per spike.

79. VIEW OF VAL FIRING RANGE LOOKING SOUTHWEST SHOWING LAUNCHER ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

79. VIEW OF VAL FIRING RANGE LOOKING SOUTHWEST SHOWING LAUNCHER BRIDGE, BARGES, SONAR BUOY RANGE AND MORRIS DAM IN BACKGROUND, June 10, 1948. - Variable Angle Launcher Complex, Variable Angle Launcher, CA State Highway 39 at Morris Reservior, Azusa, Los Angeles County, CA

A new field method to characterise the runoff generation potential of burned hillslopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheridan, Gary; Lane, Patrick; Langhans, Christoph

2016-04-01

The prediction of post fire runoff generation is critical for the estimation of post fire erosion processes and rates. Typical field measures for determining infiltration model parameters include ring infiltrometers, tension infiltrometers, rainfall simulators and natural runoff plots. However predicting the runoff generating potential of post-fire hillslopes is difficult due to the high spatial variability of soil properties relative to the size of the measurement method, the poorly understood relationship between water repellence and runoff generation, known scaling issues with all the above hydraulic measurements, and logistical limitations for measurements in remote environments. In this study we tested a new field method for characterizing surface runoff generation potential that overcomes these limitations and is quick, simple and cheap to apply in the field. The new field method involves the manual application of a 40mm depth of Brilliant Blue FCF food dye along a 10cm wide and 5m long transect along the contour under slightly-ponded conditions. After 24 hours the transect is excavated to a depth of 10cm and the percentage dyed area within the soil profile recorded manually. The dyed area is an index of infiltration potential of the soil during intense rainfall events, and captures both spatial variability and water repellence effects. The dye measurements were made adjacent to long term instrumented post fire rainfall-runoff plots on 7 contrasting soil types over a 6 month period, and the results show surprisingly strong correlations (r2 = 0.9) between the runoff-ratio from the plots and the dyed area. The results are used to develop an initial conceptual model that links the dye index with an infiltration model and parameters suited to burnt hillslopes. The capacity of this method to provide a simple, and reliable indicator of post fire runoff potential from different fire severities, soil types and treatments is explored in this presentation.

Mapping fire probability and severity in a Mediterranean area using different weather and fuel moisture scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arca, B.; Salis, M.; Bacciu, V.; Duce, P.; Pellizzaro, G.; Ventura, A.; Spano, D.

2009-04-01

Although in many countries lightning is the main cause of ignition, in the Mediterranean Basin the forest fires are predominantly ignited by arson, or by human negligence. The fire season peaks coincide with extreme weather conditions (mainly strong winds, hot temperatures, low atmospheric water vapour content) and high tourist presence. Many works reported that in the Mediterranean Basin the projected impacts of climate change will cause greater weather variability and extreme weather conditions, with drier and hotter summers and heat waves. At long-term scale, climate changes could affect the fuel load and the dead/live fuel ratio, and therefore could change the vegetation flammability. At short-time scale, the increase of extreme weather events could directly affect fuel water status, and it could increase large fire occurrence. In this context, detecting the areas characterized by both high probability of large fire occurrence and high fire severity could represent an important component of the fire management planning. In this work we compared several fire probability and severity maps (fire occurrence, rate of spread, fireline intensity, flame length) obtained for a study area located in North Sardinia, Italy, using FlamMap simulator (USDA Forest Service, Missoula). FlamMap computes the potential fire behaviour characteristics over a defined landscape for given weather, wind and fuel moisture data. Different weather and fuel moisture scenarios were tested to predict the potential impact of climate changes on fire parameters. The study area, characterized by a mosaic of urban areas, protected areas, and other areas subject to anthropogenic disturbances, is mainly composed by fire-prone Mediterranean maquis. The input themes needed to run FlamMap were input as grid of 10 meters; the wind data, obtained using a computational fluid-dynamic model, were inserted as gridded file, with a resolution of 50 m. The analysis revealed high fire probability and severity in most of the areas, and therefore a high potential danger. The FlamMap outputs and the derived fire probability maps can be used in decision support systems for fire spread and behaviour and for fire danger assessment with actual and future fire regimes.

Ignition of combustible fluids by heated surfaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennett, Joseph Michael

The ignition of flammable fluids leaking onto hot machinery components is a common cause of fires and property loss to society. For example, the U.S. Air Force has over 100 engine fires per year. There is a comparable number in the civilian air fleet. Many of these fires are due to ruptured fuel, oil or hydraulic lines impinging on hot engine components. Also, over 500,000 vehicle fires occur each year on U.S. roads. Many of these are due to leaking fluids onto hot exhaust manifolds or other exhaust components. The design of fire protection systems for aircraft and road vehicles must take into account the problems of hot surface ignition as well as re-ignition that can occur once the fire is initially extinguished. The lack of understanding of ignition and re-ignition results in heavy, high-capacity fire extinguishers to address the fire threat. It is desired to better understand the mechanisms that control this phenomenon, and exploit this understanding in producing machinery designs that can mitigate this threat. The purpose of this effort is to gain a fundamental understanding of ignition by heated surfaces. This is done by performing experimental measurements on the impingement of vertical streams of combustible fluids onto horizontal heated surfaces, and then determine the mechanisms that control the process, in terms of physical, controllable parameters (such as fuel type, flow rate and surface temperature). An initial exhaustive review of the literature revealed a small sample of pertinent findings of previous investigators, focused on droplet ignition. Boiling modes present during contact with the heated surface were also shown to control evaporation rates and ignition delays, in addition to surface temperatures and fluid properties. An experimental apparatus was designed and constructed to create the scenario of interest in a controllable fashion, with a 20 cm horizontal heated plate with variable heating supply. Fuels were applied as streams ranging from 0.67 ml/sec to 9.5 ml/sec. Heptane, hexadecane, dodecane and kerosene were the fuels investigated in the study, and experiments were performed over a range of surface temperatures. Of the 388 fuel impingement experiments performed, 226 resulted in ignition events. Of these, 124 were classified as "airborne" ignitions, where spontaneous ignition occurred up to 60 cm above the surface. A model was derived as a predictor of ignition delays observed in these experiments, based upon a fuel evaporation rate-dominated process. This model, which utilized information derived from prior Nusselt number heat transfer correlations and simple plume models, exhibited a high degree of successful correlation with experimental data. This model was sufficiently robust to be applied to all the fuels studied, and all boiling modes (nucleate, transition and boiling) and flow rates. This facilitated a means of predicting ignition delay times based upon fundamental operating parameters of fuel type, flow rate and surface temperature, and assist in the design of fire-safe systems.

Early forest dynamics in stand-replacing fire patches in the northern Sierra Nevada, California, USA

Treesearch

Brandon M. Collins; Gary B. Roller

2013-01-01

There is considerable concern over the occurrence of stand-replacing fire in forest types historically associated with low- to moderate-severity fire. The concern is largely over whether contemporary levels of stand-replacing fire are outside the historical range of variability, and what natural forest recovery is in these forest types following stand-replacing fire....

Wildland fire emissions, carbon, and climate: U.S. emissions inventories

Treesearch

Narasimhan K. Larkin; Sean M. Raffuse; Tara M. Strand

2014-01-01

Emissions from wildland fire are both highly variable and highly uncertain over a wide range of temporal and spatial scales. Wildland fire emissions change considerably due to fluctuations from year to year with overall fire season severity, from season to season as different regions pass in and out of wildfire and prescribed fire periods, and from day to day as...

A portable station for recording fire weather data

Treesearch

John R. Murray; Clive M. Countryman

1968-01-01

A portable station for recording fire weather data has been developed for use in wildland fires, prescribed burns, evaluating sites for fire weather stations, and fire research. Housed in a mechanic's tool box, the station weighs about 60 pounds. One man can have it ready to operate in about 15 minutes. The unit can record five weather variables, but additional...

Characterization of a mine fire using atmospheric monitoring system sensor data

PubMed Central

Yuan, L.; Thomas, R.A.; Zhou, L.

2017-01-01

Atmospheric monitoring systems (AMS) have been widely used in underground coal mines in the United States for the detection of fire in the belt entry and the monitoring of other ventilation-related parameters such as airflow velocity and methane concentration in specific mine locations. In addition to an AMS being able to detect a mine fire, the AMS data have the potential to provide fire characteristic information such as fire growth — in terms of heat release rate — and exact fire location. Such information is critical in making decisions regarding fire-fighting strategies, underground personnel evacuation and optimal escape routes. In this study, a methodology was developed to calculate the fire heat release rate using AMS sensor data for carbon monoxide concentration, carbon dioxide concentration and airflow velocity based on the theory of heat and species transfer in ventilation airflow. Full-scale mine fire experiments were then conducted in the Pittsburgh Mining Research Division’s Safety Research Coal Mine using an AMS with different fire sources. Sensor data collected from the experiments were used to calculate the heat release rates of the fires using this methodology. The calculated heat release rate was compared with the value determined from the mass loss rate of the combustible material using a digital load cell. The experimental results show that the heat release rate of a mine fire can be calculated using AMS sensor data with reasonable accuracy. PMID:28845058

HESFIRE: a global fire model to explore the role of anthropogenic and weather drivers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Le Page, Yannick LB; Morton, Douglas; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin

Vegetation fires are a major driver of ecosystem dynamics and greenhouse gas emissions. Anticipating potential changes in fire activity and their impacts relies first on a realistic model of fire activity (e.g., fire incidence and interannual variability) and second on a model accounting for fire impacts (e.g., mortality and emissions). In this paper, we focus on our understanding of fire activity and describe a new fire model, HESFIRE (Human–Earth System FIRE), which integrates the influence of weather, vegetation characteristics, and human activities on fires in a stand-alone framework. It was developed with a particular emphasis on allowing fires to spreadmore » over consecutive days given their major contribution to burned areas in many ecosystems. A subset of the model parameters was calibrated through an optimization procedure using observation data to enhance our knowledge of regional drivers of fire activity and improve the performance of the model on a global scale. Modeled fire activity showed reasonable agreement with observations of burned area, fire seasonality, and interannual variability in many regions, including for spatial and temporal domains not included in the optimization procedure. Significant discrepancies are investigated, most notably regarding fires in boreal regions and in xeric ecosystems and also fire size distribution. The sensitivity of fire activity to model parameters is analyzed to explore the dominance of specific drivers across regions and ecosystems. The characteristics of HESFIRE and the outcome of its evaluation provide insights into the influence of anthropogenic activities and weather, and their interactions, on fire activity.« less

HESFIRE: a global fire model to explore the role of anthropogenic and weather drivers

DOE PAGES

Le Page, Yannick LB; Morton, Douglas; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; ...

2015-02-13

Vegetation fires are a major driver of ecosystem dynamics and greenhouse gas emissions. Anticipating potential changes in fire activity and their impacts relies first on a realistic model of fire activity (e.g., fire incidence and interannual variability) and second on a model accounting for fire impacts (e.g., mortality and emissions). In this paper, we focus on our understanding of fire activity and describe a new fire model, HESFIRE (Human–Earth System FIRE), which integrates the influence of weather, vegetation characteristics, and human activities on fires in a stand-alone framework. It was developed with a particular emphasis on allowing fires to spreadmore » over consecutive days given their major contribution to burned areas in many ecosystems. A subset of the model parameters was calibrated through an optimization procedure using observation data to enhance our knowledge of regional drivers of fire activity and improve the performance of the model on a global scale. Modeled fire activity showed reasonable agreement with observations of burned area, fire seasonality, and interannual variability in many regions, including for spatial and temporal domains not included in the optimization procedure. Significant discrepancies are investigated, most notably regarding fires in boreal regions and in xeric ecosystems and also fire size distribution. The sensitivity of fire activity to model parameters is analyzed to explore the dominance of specific drivers across regions and ecosystems. The characteristics of HESFIRE and the outcome of its evaluation provide insights into the influence of anthropogenic activities and weather, and their interactions, on fire activity.« less

Fire Danger Rating: The next 20 Years

Treesearch

John E. Deeming

1987-01-01

For the next 10 years, few changes will be made to the fire-danger rating system. During that time, the focus will be on the automation of weather observing systems and the streamlining of the computation and display of ratings. The time horizon for projecting fire danger will be pushed to 30 days by the late 1990's. A close alignment of the fire-danger rating...

The impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, P.; Abatzoglou, J. T.

2016-12-01

Increased forest fire activity across the western United States (US) in recent decades has contributed to widespread forest mortality, carbon emissions, periods of degraded air quality, and substantial fire suppression expenditures. The increase in forest fire activity has likely been enabled by a number of factors including the legacy of fire suppression and human settlement, changes in suppression policies, natural climate variability, and human-caused climate change. We use modeled climate projections to estimate the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to observed increases in eight fuel aridity metrics and forest fire area across the western US. Anthropogenic increases in temperature and vapor pressure deficit have significantly enhanced fuel aridity across western US forests over the past several decades. Comparing observational climate records to records recalculated after removal of modeled anthropogenic trends, we find that anthropogenic climate change accounted for approximately 55% of observed increases in the eight-metric mean fuel aridity during 1979-2015 across western US forests. This implicates anthropogenic climate change as an important driver of observed increases in fuel aridity, and also highlights the importance of natural multi-decadal climate variability in influencing trends in forest fire potential on the timescales of human lives. Based on a very strong (R2 = 0.76) and mechanistically reasonable relationship between interannual variability in the eight-metric mean fuel aridity and forest-fire area in the western US, we estimate that anthropogenic increases in fuel aridity contributed to an additional 4.2 million ha (95% confidence range: 2.7-6.5 million ha) of forest fire area during 1984-2015, nearly doubling the total forest fire area expected in the absence of anthropogenic climate change. The relationship between annual forest fire area and fuel aridity is exponential and the proportion of total forest area burned in a given year has grown rapidly over the past 32 years. Natural climate variability will continue to alternate between modulating and compounding anthropogenic increases in fuel aridity, but anthropogenic climate change has emerged as a chronic driver of increased forest fire activity and should continue to do so where fuels are not limiting.

Fire resistance of structural composite lumber products

Treesearch

Robert H. White

2006-01-01

Use of structural composite lumber products is increasing. In applications requiring a fire resistance rating, calculation procedures are used to obtain the fire resistance rating of exposed structural wood products. A critical factor in the calculation procedures is char rate for ASTM E 119 fire exposure. In this study, we tested 14 structural composite lumber...

Colored noise and a stochastic fractional model for correlated inputs and adaptation in neuronal firing.

PubMed

Pirozzi, Enrica

2018-04-01

High variability in the neuronal response to stimulations and the adaptation phenomenon cannot be explained by the standard stochastic leaky integrate-and-fire model. The main reason is that the uncorrelated inputs involved in the model are not realistic. There exists some form of dependency between the inputs, and it can be interpreted as memory effects. In order to include these physiological features in the standard model, we reconsider it with time-dependent coefficients and correlated inputs. Due to its hard mathematical tractability, we perform simulations of it for a wide investigation of its output. A Gauss-Markov process is constructed for approximating its non-Markovian dynamics. The first passage time probability density of such a process can be numerically evaluated, and it can be used to fit the histograms of simulated firing times. Some estimates of the moments of firing times are also provided. The effect of the correlation time of the inputs on firing densities and on firing rates is shown. An exponential probability density of the first firing time is estimated for low values of input current and high values of correlation time. For comparison, a simulation-based investigation is also carried out for a fractional stochastic model that allows to preserve the memory of the time evolution of the neuronal membrane potential. In this case, the memory parameter that affects the firing activity is the fractional derivative order. In both models an adaptation level of spike frequency is attained, even if along different modalities. Comparisons and discussion of the obtained results are provided.

Forest fire risk zonation mapping using remote sensing technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chandra, Sunil; Arora, M. K.

2006-12-01

Forest fires cause major losses to forest cover and disturb the ecological balance in our region. Rise in temperature during summer season causing increased dryness, increased activity of human beings in the forest areas, and the type of forest cover in the Garhwal Himalayas are some of the reasons that lead to forest fires. Therefore, generation of forest fire risk maps becomes necessary so that preventive measures can be taken at appropriate time. These risk maps shall indicate the zonation of the areas which are in very high, high, medium and low risk zones with regard to forest fire in the region. In this paper, an attempt has been made to generate the forest fire risk maps based on remote sensing data and other geographical variables responsible for the occurrence of fire. These include altitude, temperature and soil variations. Key thematic data layers pertaining to these variables have been generated using various techniques. A rule-based approach has been used and implemented in GIS environment to estimate fuel load and fuel index leading to the derivation of fire risk zonation index and subsequently to fire risk zonation maps. The fire risk maps thus generated have been validated on the ground for forest types as well as for forest fire risk areas. These maps would help the state forest departments in prioritizing their strategy for combating forest fires particularly during the fire seasons.

Estimation of Thalamocortical and Intracortical Network Models from Joint Thalamic Single-Electrode and Cortical Laminar-Electrode Recordings in the Rat Barrel System

PubMed Central

Blomquist, Patrick; Devor, Anna; Indahl, Ulf G.; Ulbert, Istvan; Einevoll, Gaute T.; Dale, Anders M.

2009-01-01

A new method is presented for extraction of population firing-rate models for both thalamocortical and intracortical signal transfer based on stimulus-evoked data from simultaneous thalamic single-electrode and cortical recordings using linear (laminar) multielectrodes in the rat barrel system. Time-dependent population firing rates for granular (layer 4), supragranular (layer 2/3), and infragranular (layer 5) populations in a barrel column and the thalamic population in the homologous barreloid are extracted from the high-frequency portion (multi-unit activity; MUA) of the recorded extracellular signals. These extracted firing rates are in turn used to identify population firing-rate models formulated as integral equations with exponentially decaying coupling kernels, allowing for straightforward transformation to the more common firing-rate formulation in terms of differential equations. Optimal model structures and model parameters are identified by minimizing the deviation between model firing rates and the experimentally extracted population firing rates. For the thalamocortical transfer, the experimental data favor a model with fast feedforward excitation from thalamus to the layer-4 laminar population combined with a slower inhibitory process due to feedforward and/or recurrent connections and mixed linear-parabolic activation functions. The extracted firing rates of the various cortical laminar populations are found to exhibit strong temporal correlations for the present experimental paradigm, and simple feedforward population firing-rate models combined with linear or mixed linear-parabolic activation function are found to provide excellent fits to the data. The identified thalamocortical and intracortical network models are thus found to be qualitatively very different. While the thalamocortical circuit is optimally stimulated by rapid changes in the thalamic firing rate, the intracortical circuits are low-pass and respond most strongly to slowly varying inputs from the cortical layer-4 population. PMID:19325875

Preventing deaths and injuries from house fires: an outcome evaluation of a community-based smoke alarm installation programme.

PubMed

Istre, Gregory R; McCoy, Mary A; Moore, Billy J; Roper, Carey; Stephens-Stidham, Shelli; Barnard, Jeffrey J; Carlin, Debra K; Stowe, Martha; Anderson, Ron J

2014-04-01

Few studies have examined the impact of community-based smoke alarm (SA) distribution programmes on the occurrence of house fire-related deaths and injuries (HF-D/I). To determine whether the rate of HF-D/I differed for programme houses that had a SA installed through a community-based programme called Operation Installation, versus non-programme houses in the same census tracts that had not received such a SA. Teams of volunteers and firefighters canvassed houses in 36 high-risk target census tracts in Dallas, TX, between April 2001 and April 2011, and installed lithium-powered SAs in houses where residents were present and gave permission. We then followed incidence of HF-D/I among residents of the 8134 programme houses versus the 24 346 non-programme houses. After a mean of 5.2 years of follow-up, the unadjusted HF-D/I rate was 68% lower among residents of programme houses versus non-programme houses (3.1 vs 9.6 per 100 000 population, respectively; rate ratio, 0.32; 95% CI 0.10 to 0.84). Multivariate analysis including several demographic variables showed that the adjusted HF-D/I rate in programme houses was 63% lower than non-programme houses. The programme was most effective in the first 5 years after SA installation, with declining difference in rates after the 6th year, probably due to SAs becoming non-functional during that time. This collaborative, community-based SA installation programme was effective at preventing deaths and injuries from house fires, but the duration of effectiveness was less than 10 years.

Behavior of medial gastrocnemius motor units during postural reactions to external perturbations after stroke.

PubMed

Pollock, C L; Ivanova, T D; Hunt, M A; Garland, S J

2015-10-01

This study investigated the behavior of medial gastrocnemius (GM) motor units (MU) during external perturbations in standing in people with chronic stroke. GM MUs were recorded in standing while anteriorly-directed perturbations were introduced by applying loads of 1% body mass (BM) at the pelvis every 25-40s until 5% BM was maintained. Joint kinematics, surface electromyography (EMG), and force platform measurements were assessed. Although external loads caused a forward progression of the anterior-posterior centre of pressure (APCOP), people with stroke decreased APCOP velocity and centre of mass (COM) velocity immediately following the highest perturbations, thereby limiting movement velocity in response to perturbations. MU firing rate did not increase with loading but the GM EMG magnitude increased, reflecting MU recruitment. MU inter spike interval (ISI) during the dynamic response was negatively correlated with COM velocity and hip angular velocity. The GM utilized primarily MU recruitment to maintain standing during external perturbations. The lack of MU firing rate modulation occurred with a change in postural central set. However, the relationship of MU firing rate with kinematic variables suggests underlying long-loop responses may be somewhat intact after stroke. People with stroke demonstrate alterations in postural control strategies which may explain MU behavior with external perturbations. Copyright © 2014 International Federation of Clinical Neurophysiology. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A generalized linear integrate-and-fire neural model produces diverse spiking behaviors.

PubMed

Mihalaş, Stefan; Niebur, Ernst

2009-03-01

For simulations of neural networks, there is a trade-off between the size of the network that can be simulated and the complexity of the model used for individual neurons. In this study, we describe a generalization of the leaky integrate-and-fire model that produces a wide variety of spiking behaviors while still being analytically solvable between firings. For different parameter values, the model produces spiking or bursting, tonic, phasic or adapting responses, depolarizing or hyperpolarizing after potentials and so forth. The model consists of a diagonalizable set of linear differential equations describing the time evolution of membrane potential, a variable threshold, and an arbitrary number of firing-induced currents. Each of these variables is modified by an update rule when the potential reaches threshold. The variables used are intuitive and have biological significance. The model's rich behavior does not come from the differential equations, which are linear, but rather from complex update rules. This single-neuron model can be implemented using algorithms similar to the standard integrate-and-fire model. It is a natural match with event-driven algorithms for which the firing times are obtained as a solution of a polynomial equation.

A Generalized Linear Integrate-and-Fire Neural Model Produces Diverse Spiking Behaviors

PubMed Central

Mihalaş, Ştefan; Niebur, Ernst

2010-01-01

For simulations of neural networks, there is a trade-off between the size of the network that can be simulated and the complexity of the model used for individual neurons. In this study, we describe a generalization of the leaky integrate-and-fire model that produces a wide variety of spiking behaviors while still being analytically solvable between firings. For different parameter values, the model produces spiking or bursting, tonic, phasic or adapting responses, depolarizing or hyperpolarizing after potentials and so forth. The model consists of a diagonalizable set of linear differential equations describing the time evolution of membrane potential, a variable threshold, and an arbitrary number of firing-induced currents. Each of these variables is modified by an update rule when the potential reaches threshold. The variables used are intuitive and have biological significance. The model’s rich behavior does not come from the differential equations, which are linear, but rather from complex update rules. This single-neuron model can be implemented using algorithms similar to the standard integrate-and-fire model. It is a natural match with event-driven algorithms for which the firing times are obtained as a solution of a polynomial equation. PMID:18928368

Seasonal Forecasts of Extreme Conditions for Wildland Fire Management in Alaska using NMME

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhatt, U. S.; Bieniek, P.; Thoman, R.; York, A.; Ziel, R.

2016-12-01

The summer of 2015 was the second largest Alaska fire season since 1950 where approximately the land area of Massachusetts burned. The record fire year of 2004 resulted in 6.5 million acres burned and was costly from property loss (> 35M) and emergency personnel (> 17M). In addition to requiring significant resources, wildfire smoke impacts air quality in Alaska and downstream into North America. Fires in Alaska result from lightning strikes coupled with persistent (extreme) dry warm conditions in remote areas with limited fire management and the seasonal climate/weather determine the extent of the fire season in Alaska. Fire managers rely on weather/climate outlooks for allocating staff and resources from days to a season in advance. Though currently few tested products are available at the seasonal scale. Probabilistic forecasts of the expected seasonal climate/weather would aid tremendously in the planning process. Advanced knowledge of both lightning and fuel conditions would assist managers in planning resource allocation for the upcoming season. For fuel conditions, the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System (CFFWIS) has been used since 1992 because it better suits the Alaska fire regime than the standard US National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS). This CFFWIS is based on early afternoon values of 2-m air temperature, relative humidity, and 10-m winds and daily total precipitation. Extremes of these indices and the variables are used to calculate these indices will be defined in reference to fire weather for the boreal forest. The CFFWIS will be applied and evaluated for the NMME hindcasts. This study will evaluate the quality of the forecasts comparing the hindcast NMME CFFWIS to acres burned in Alaska. Spatial synoptic patterns in the NMME related to fire weather extremes will be constructed using self-organized maps and probabilities of occurrence will be evaluated against acres burned.

The Habitat Susceptibility of Bali Starling (Leucopsar rothschildi Stresemann> 1912) Based on Forest Fire Vulnerability Mappin in West Bali National Park

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pramatana, F.; Prasetyo, L. B.; Rushayati, S. B.

2017-10-01

Bali starling is an endemic and endangered species which tend to decrease of its population in the wild. West Bali National Park (WBNP) is the only habitat of bali starling, however it is threatened nowadays by forest fire. Understanding the sensitivity of habitat to forest & land fire is urgently needed. Geographic Information System (GIS) can be used for mapping the vulnerability of forest fire. This study aims to analyze the contributed factor of forest fire, to develop vulnerability level map of forest fire in WBNP, to estimate habitat vulnerability of bali starling. The variable for mapping forest fire in WBNP were road distance, village distance, land cover, NDVI, NDMI, surface temperature, and slope. Forest fire map in WBNP was created by scoring from each variable, and classified into four classes of forest fire vulnerability which are very low (9 821 ha), low (5 015.718 ha), middle (6 778.656 ha), and high (2 126.006 ha). Bali starling existence in the middle and high vulnerability forest fire class in WBNP, consequently the population and habitat of bali starling is a very vulnerable. Management of population and habitat of bali starling in WBNP must be implemented focus on forest fire impact.

Climatic conditions preceding historically great fires in the North Central Region.

Treesearch

Donald A. Haines; Rodney W. Sando

1969-01-01

This paper examines the importance of various climatic variables before seven well-known fires of the past. Also, the 1871 synoptic weather pattern preceding the Chicago-Peshtigo-Michigan fire disaster is examined in detail.

Drought, multi-seasonal climate, and wildfire in northern New Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Margolis, Ellis; Woodhouse, Connie A.; Swetnam, Thomas W.

2017-01-01

Wildfire is increasingly a concern in the USA, where 10 million acres burned in 2015. Climate is a primary driver of wildfire, and understanding fire-climate relationships is crucial for informing fire management and modeling the effects of climate change on fire. In the southwestern USA, fire-climate relationships have been informed by tree-ring data that extend centuries prior to the onset of fire exclusion in the late 1800s. Variability in cool-season precipitation has been linked to fire occurrence, but the effects of the summer North American monsoon on fire are less understood, as are the effects of climate on fire seasonality. We use a new set of reconstructions for cool-season (October–April) and monsoon-season (July–August) moisture conditions along with a large new fire scar dataset to examine relationships between multi-seasonal climate variability, fire extent, and fire seasonality in the Jemez Mountains, New Mexico (1599–1899 CE). Results suggest that large fires burning in all seasons are strongly influenced by the current year cool-season moisture, but fires burning mid-summer to fall are also influenced by monsoon moisture. Wet conditions several years prior to the fire year during the cool season, and to a lesser extent during the monsoon season, are also important for spring through late-summer fires. Persistent cool-season drought longer than 3 years may inhibit fires due to the lack of moisture to replenish surface fuels. This suggests that fuels may become increasingly limiting for fire occurrence in semi-arid regions that are projected to become drier with climate change.

Dayton Aircraft Cabin Fire Model, Version 3. Volume II. Program User’s Guide and Appendices.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-06-01

HEAT RELEASE RATE (BTU/FT*FT*SEC) FOR A FIRE C FLML - FLAME LENGTH OF A FIRE. SUBSCR IS FIRE NUMBER (FT) C FSN1 - COUNTER OF NUMBER OF FLAMING...53H ENTRMNT FLAME LENGTH ABSN COEFF SMOKE GEN RATE 0 2 *14HXY CNSPTN RATE/ 3 9X,53H(SG FT) (CU FT/SEC) (BTU/SEC) (CU FT/SEC) 4 .53H (FT) (l/FT) (PART...THE CENTER OF THE FIRE BASE FROM THE C FLOOR C C YZ - THE HYDRAULIC RADIUS OF THE FIRE BASE AREA C C FLML - THE FLAME LENGTH FOR THE FIRE C C ALPC

Nonlinear dynamics of a pulse-coupled neural oscillator model of orientation tuning in the visual cortex

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bressloff, P. C.; Bressloff, N. W.

2000-02-01

Orientation tuning in a ring of pulse-coupled integrate-and-fire (IF) neurons is analyzed in terms of spontaneous pattern formation. It is shown how the ring bifurcates from a synchronous state to a non-phase-locked state whose spike trains are characterized by quasiperiodic variations of the inter-spike intervals (ISIs) on closed invariant circles. The separation of these invariant circles in phase space results in a localized peak of activity as measured by the time-averaged firing rate of the neurons. This generates a sharp orientation tuning curve that can lock to a slowly rotating, weakly tuned external stimulus. For fast synapses, breakup of the quasiperiodic orbits occurs leading to high spike time variability suggestive of chaos.

Smoke optical depths - Magnitude, variability, and wavelength dependence

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pueschel, R. F.; Russell, P. B.; Colburn, D. A.; Ackerman, T. P.; Allen, D. A.

1988-01-01

An airborne autotracking sun-photometer has been used to measure magnitudes, temporal/spatial variabilities, and the wavelength dependence of optical depths in the near-ultraviolet to near-infrared spectrum of smoke from two forest fires and one jet fuel fire and of background air. Jet fuel smoke optical depths were found to be generally less wavelength dependent than background aerosol optical depths. Forest fire smoke optical depths, however, showed a wide range of wavelength depedences, such as incidents of wavelength-independent extinction.

Wildfire effects on a ponderosa pine ecosystem: An Arizona case study

Treesearch

R. E. Campbell; Jr. Baker; P. F. Ffolliott; F. R. Larson; C. C. Avery

1977-01-01

A wildfire of variable severity swept through 717 acres (290 ha) of ponderosa pine forest in north-central Arizona in May 1972. Where the fire was intense it killed 90% of the small trees and 50% of the sawtimber, burned 2.6 in (6.5 cm) of forest floor to the mineral soil, and induced a water-repellent layer in the sandier soils. The reduced infiltration rates, which...

Measurements of reactive trace gases and variable O3 formation rates in some South Carolina biomass burning plumes [Discussions

Treesearch

S. K. Akagi; R. J. Yokelson; I. R. Burling; S. Meinardi; I. Simpson; D. R. Blake; G. R. McMeeking; A. Sullivan; T. Lee; S. Kreidenweis; S. Urbanski; J. Reardon; D. W. T. Griffith; T. J. Johnson; D. R. Weise

2012-01-01

In October–November 2011 we measured trace gas emission factors from seven prescribed fires in South Carolina (SC), US, using two Fourier transform infrared spectrometer (FTIR) systems and whole air sampling (WAS) into canisters followed by gas-chromatographic analysis. A total of 97 trace gas species were quantified from both airborne and ground-based sampling...

Relationship of post-fire ground cover to surface fuel loads and consumption in longleaf pine ecosystems

Treesearch

Andrew T. Hudak; Roger D. Ottmar; Robert E. Vihnanek; Clint S. Wright

2014-01-01

The RxCADRE research team collected multi-scale measurements of pre-, during, and post-fire variables on operational prescribed fires conducted in 2008, 2011, and 2012 in longleaf pine ecosystems in the southeastern USA. Pre- and post-fire surface fuel loads were characterized in alternating pre- and post-fire clip plots systematically established within burn units....

Fire-climate interactions in the American west since 1400 CE

Treesearch

Valerie Trouet; Alan H. Taylor; Eugene R. Wahl; Carl N. Skinner

2010-01-01

Despite a strong anthropogenic fingerprint on 20th Century wildland fire activity in the American West, climate remains a main driver. A better understanding of the spatiotemporal variability in fire‐climate interactions is therefore crucial for fire management. Here, we present annually resolved, tree‐ring based fire records for four regions in the American West that...

Stand-replacing patches within a ‘mixed severity’ fire regime: quantitative characterization using recent fires in a long-established natural fire area

Treesearch

B.M. Collins; S.L. Stephens

2010-01-01

The complexity inherent in variable, or mixed-severity fire regimes makes quantitative characterization of important fire regime attributes (e.g., proportion of landscape burned at different severities, size and distribution of stand-replacing patches) difficult. As a result, there is ambiguity associated with the term ‘mixed-severity’. We address...

Environmental factors affecting corrosion of munitions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bundy, K.; Bricka, M.; Morales, A.

1995-12-31

Spent small arms munitions have accumulated for years at outdoor firing ranges operated by the DoD and other groups. Used bullets are often subjected to moisture sources. There is increasing concern that accumulations of lead-based munitions represent potential sources of water and soil pollution. To understand both the severity of and solutions to this problem, it is necessary to measure how rapidly bullets corrode and to determine the soil variables affecting the process. In this study M16 bullets were buried in samples of soil taken from Louisiana army firing ranges. Four environmental conditions were simulated; rain water, acid rain, seamore » water, and 50% sea water/50% acid rain. The three electrode technique was used to measure the bullet corrosion. Graphite rods served as counter electrodes. A saturated calomel reference electrode was used along with a specially constructed salt bridge. Electrochemical measurements were conducted using a computer-controlled potentiostat to determine corrosion potential, soil resistance, and corrosion current. The rate of corrosion was found to markedly increase with decreasing soil pH and increasing chloride and moisture contents, with the chloride content being the most influential variable. High soil resistance and noble corrosion potential were found to be associated with low corrosion rates. This is important since both parameters can be readily measured in the field.« less

Climate change and wildfires

Treesearch

William J. De Groot; Michael D. Flannigan; Brian J. Stocks

2013-01-01

Wildland fire regimes are primarily driven by climate/weather, fuels and people. All of these factors are dynamic and their variable interactions create a mosaic of fire regimes around the world. Climate change will have a substantial impact on future fire regimes in many global regions. Current research suggests a general increase in area burned and fire occurrence...

Fire regimes and approaches for determining fire history

Treesearch

James K. Agee

1996-01-01

Fire has been an important evolutionary influence in forests, affecting species composition, structure, and functional aspects of forest biology. Restoration of wildland forests of the future will depend in part on restoring fire to an appropriate role in forest ecosystems. This may include the "range of natural variability" or other concepts associated with...

Spatiotemporal variability of wildland fuels in US Northern Rocky Mountain forests

Treesearch

Robert E. Keane

2016-01-01

Fire regimes are ultimately controlled by wildland fuel dynamics over space and time; spatial distributions of fuel influence the size, spread, and intensity of individual fires, while the temporal distribution of fuel deposition influences fire's frequency and controls fire size. These "shifting fuel mosaics" are both a cause and a consequence...

The changing role of fire in conifer-dominated temperate rainforest through the last 14,000 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fletcher, M.-S.; Bowman, D. M. J. S.; Whitlock, C.; Mariani, M.; Stahle, L.

2018-02-01

Climate, fire and vegetation dynamics are often tightly coupled through time. Here, we use a 14 kyr sedimentary charcoal and pollen record from Lake Osborne, Tasmania, Australia, to explore how this relationship changes under varying climatic regimes within a temperate rainforest ecosystem. Superposed epoch analysis reveals a significant relationship between fire and vegetation change throughout the Holocene at our site. Our data indicates an initial resilience of the rainforest system to fire under a stable cool and humid climate regime between ca. 12-6 ka. In contrast, fires that occurred after 6 ka, under an increasingly variable climate regime wrought by the onset of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), resulted in a series of changes within the local rainforest vegetation that culminated in the replacement of rainforest by fire-promoted Eucalypt forest. We suggest that an increasingly variable ENSO-influenced climate regime inhibited rainforest recovery from fire because of slower growth, reduced fecundity and increased fire frequency, thus contributing to the eventual collapse of the rainforest system.

Distinguishing intrinsic from extrinsic factors underlying firing rate saturation in human motor units

PubMed Central

Lester, Rosemary A.; Johns, Richard K.

2014-01-01

During voluntary contraction, firing rates of individual motor units (MUs) increase modestly over a narrow force range beyond which little additional increase in firing rate is seen. Such saturation of MU discharge may be a consequence of extrinsic factors that limit net synaptic excitation acting on motor neurons (MNs) or may be due to intrinsic properties of the MNs. Two sets of experiments involving recording of human biceps brachii MUs were carried out to evaluate saturation. In the first set, the extent of saturation was quantified for 136 low-threshold MUs during isometric ramp contractions. Firing rate-force data were best fit by a saturating function for 90% of MUs recorded with a maximum rate of 14.8 ± 2.0 impulses/s. In the second set of experiments, to distinguish extrinsic from intrinsic factors underlying saturation, we artificially augmented descending excitatory drive to biceps MNs by activation of muscle spindle afferents through tendon vibration. We examined the change in firing rate caused by tendon vibration in 96 MUs that were voluntarily activated at rates below and at saturation. Vibration had little effect on the discharge of MUs that were firing at saturation frequencies but strongly increased firing rates of the same units when active at lower frequencies. These results indicate that saturation is likely caused by intrinsic mechanisms that prevent further increases in firing rate in the presence of increasing synaptic excitation. Possible intrinsic cellular mechanisms that limit firing rates of motor units during voluntary effort are discussed. PMID:25475356

Fire resistance of wood members with directly applied protection

Treesearch

Robert H. White

2009-01-01

Fire-resistive wood construction is achieved either by having the structural elements be part of fire-rated assemblies or by using elements of sufficient size that the elements themselves have the required fire-resistance ratings. For exposed structural wood elements, the ratings in the United States are calculated using either the T.T. Lie method or the National...

Remote sensing fire and fuels in southern California

Treesearch

Philip Riggan; Lynn Wolden; Bob Tissell; David Weise; J. Coen

2011-01-01

Airborne remote sensing at infrared wavelengths has the potential to quantify large-fire properties related to energy release or intensity, residence time, fuel-consumption rate, rate of spread, and soil heating. Remote sensing at a high temporal rate can track fire-line outbreaks and acceleration and spotting ahead of a fire front. Yet infrared imagers and imaging...

Real time forest fire warning and forest fire risk zoning: a Vietnamese case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chu, T.; Pham, D.; Phung, T.; Ha, A.; Paschke, M.

2016-12-01

Forest fire occurs seriously in Vietnam and has been considered as one of the major causes of forest lost and degradation. Several studies of forest fire risk warning were conducted using Modified Nesterov Index (MNI) but remaining shortcomings and inaccurate predictions that needs to be urgently improved. In our study, several important topographic and social factors such as aspect, slope, elevation, distance to residential areas and road system were considered as "permanent" factors while meteorological data were updated hourly using near-real-time (NRT) remotely sensed data (i.e. MODIS Terra/Aqua and TRMM) for the prediction and warning of fire. Due to the limited number of weather stations in Vietnam, data from all active stations (i.e. 178) were used with the satellite data to calibrate and upscale meteorological variables. These data with finer resolution were then used to generate MNI. The only significant "permanent" factors were selected as input variables based on the correlation coefficients that computed from multi-variable regression among true fire-burning (collected from 1/2007) and its spatial characteristics. These coefficients also used to suggest appropriate weight for computing forest fire risk (FR) model. Forest fire risk model was calculated from the MNI and the selected factors using fuzzy regression models (FRMs) and GIS based multi-criteria analysis. By this approach, the FR was slightly modified from MNI by the integrated use of various factors in our fire warning and prediction model. Multifactor-based maps of forest fire risk zone were generated from classifying FR into three potential danger levels. Fire risk maps were displayed using webgis technology that is easy for managing data and extracting reports. Reported fire-burnings thereafter have been used as true values for validating the forest fire risk. Fire probability has strong relationship with potential danger levels (varied from 5.3% to 53.8%) indicating that the higher potential risk, the more chance of fire happen. By adding spatial factors to continuous daily updated remote sensing based meteo-data, results are valuable for both mapping forest fire risk zones in short and long-term and real time fire warning in Vietnam. Key words: Near-real-time, forest fire warning, fuzzy regression model, remote sensing.

Fire and deforestation dynamics in Amazonia (1973–2014)

PubMed Central

Field, Robert D.; van der Werf, Guido R.; Estrada de Wagt, Ivan A.; Houghton, Richard A.; Rizzo, Luciana V.; Artaxo, Paulo; Tsigaridis, Kostas

2017-01-01

Abstract Consistent long‐term estimates of fire emissions are important to understand the changing role of fire in the global carbon cycle and to assess the relative importance of humans and climate in shaping fire regimes. However, there is limited information on fire emissions from before the satellite era. We show that in the Amazon region, including the Arc of Deforestation and Bolivia, visibility observations derived from weather stations could explain 61% of the variability in satellite‐based estimates of bottom‐up fire emissions since 1997 and 42% of the variability in satellite‐based estimates of total column carbon monoxide concentrations since 2001. This enabled us to reconstruct the fire history of this region since 1973 when visibility information became available. Our estimates indicate that until 1987 relatively few fires occurred in this region and that fire emissions increased rapidly over the 1990s. We found that this pattern agreed reasonably well with forest loss data sets, indicating that although natural fires may occur here, deforestation and degradation were the main cause of fires. Compared to fire emissions estimates based on Food and Agricultural Organization's Global Forest and Resources Assessment data, our estimates were substantially lower up to the 1990s, after which they were more in line. These visibility‐based fire emissions data set can help constrain dynamic global vegetation models and atmospheric models with a better representation of the complex fire regime in this region. PMID:28286373

Geophysical features influence the climate change sensitivity of northern Wisconsin pine and oak forests.

PubMed

Tweiten, Michael A; Calcote, Randy R; Lynch, Elizabeth A; Hotchkiss, Sara C; Schuurman, Gregor W

2015-10-01

Landscape-scale vulnerability assessment from multiple sources, including paleoecological site histories, can inform climate change adaptation. We used an array of lake sediment pollen and charcoal records to determine how soils and landscape factors influenced the variability of forest composition change over the past 2000 years. The forests in this study are located in northwestern Wisconsin on a sandy glacial outwash plain. Soils and local climate vary across the study area. We used the Natural Resource Conservation Service's Soil Survey Geographic soil database and published fire histories to characterize differences in soils and fire history around each lake site. Individual site histories differed in two metrics of past vegetation dynamics: the extent to which white pine (Pinus strobus) increased during the Little Ice Age (LIA) climate period and the volatility in the rate of change between samples at 50-120 yr intervals. Greater increases of white pine during the LIA occurred on sites with less sandy soils (R² = 0.45, P < 0.0163) and on sites with relatively warmer and drier local climate (R² = 0.55, P < 0.0056). Volatility in the rate of change between samples was positively associated with LIA fire frequency (R² = 0.41, P < 0.0256). Over multi-decadal to centennial timescales, forest compositional change and rate-of-change volatility were associated with higher fire frequency. Over longer (multi-centennial) time frames, forest composition change, especially increased white pine, shifted most in sites with more soil moisture. Our results show that responsiveness of forest composition to climate change was influenced by soils, local climate, and fire. The anticipated climatic changes in the next century will not produce the same community dynamics on the same soil types as in the past, but understanding past dynamics and relationships can help us assess how novel factors and combinations of factors in the future may influence various site types. Our results support climate change adaptation efforts to monitor and conserve the landscape's full range of geophysical features.

Nutrient limitation in tropical savannas across multiple scales and mechanisms.

PubMed

Pellegrini, Adam F A

2016-02-01

Nutrients have been hypothesized to influence the distribution of the savanna biome through two possible mechanisms. Low nutrient availability may restrict growth rates of trees, thereby allowing for intermittent fires to maintain low tree cover; alternatively, nutrient deficiency may even place an absolute constraint on the ability of forests to form, independent of fire. However, we have little understanding of the scales at which nutrient limitation operates, what nutrients are limiting, and the mechanisms that influence how nutrient limitation regulates savanna-forest transitions. Here, I review literature, synthesize existing data, and present a simple calculation of nutrient demand to evaluate how nutrient limitation may regulate the distribution of the savanna biome. The literature primarily supports the hypothesis that nutrients may interact dynamically with fire to restrict the transition of savanna into forest. A compilation of indirect metrics of nutrient limitation suggest that nitrogen and phosphorus are both in short supply and may limit plants. Nutrient demand calculations provided a number of insights. First, trees required high rates of nitrogen and phosphorus supply relative to empirically determined inputs. Second, nutrient demand increased as landscapes approached the transition point between savanna and forest. Third, the potential for fire-driven nutrient losses remained high throughout transitions, which may exaggerate limitation and could be a key feedback stabilizing the savanna biome. Fourth, nutrient limitation varied between functional groups, with fast-growing forest species having substantially greater nutrient demand and a higher susceptibility to fire-driven nutrient losses. Finally, African savanna trees required substantially larger amounts of nutrients supplied at greater rates, although this varied across plant functional groups. In summary, the ability of nutrients to control transitions emerges at individual and landscape scales, and is regulated through different mechanisms based on spatial (differences in underlying geology), temporal (stage in biome transition) and biological (species traits and community composition) variability.

Factors Associated with Shooting Accuracy and Wounding Rate of Four Managed Wild Deer Species in the UK, Based on Anonymous Field Records from Deer Stalkers

PubMed Central

Aebischer, Nicholas J.; Wheatley, Christopher J.; Rose, Hugh R.

2014-01-01

The amount of wounding during routine culling is an important factor in the welfare of wild deer. Little information exists on factors determining shooting accuracy and wounding rates under field conditions in the UK. In this study, 102 anonymous stalkers collected data on the outcomes and circumstances of 2281 shots. Using hot-deck imputation and generalised linear mixed modelling, we related the probability that a shot hit its target, and the probability that the shot killed the deer if it was hit, to 28 variables describing the circumstances of the shot. Overall, 96% of deer were hit, of which 93% were killed outright. A reduced probability of hitting the target was associated with an uncomfortable firing position, too little time available, shooting off elbows or freehand, taking the head or upper neck as point of aim, a heavily obscured target, a distant target, shooting at females, lack of shooting practice and a basic (or no) stalker qualification. An increase in the likelihood of wounding was associated with an uncomfortable firing position, shooting with insufficient time, a distant target (only when time was not sufficient), a bullet weight below 75 grains, a target concealed in thicket or on the move and an area rarely stalked. To maximise stalking success and deer welfare, we recommend that stalkers ensure a comfortable firing position, use a gun rest, aim at the chest, use bullets heavier than 75 grains, avoid taking a rushed shot, shoot a distant animal only if there is plenty of time, fire only when the target is stationary, avoid shooting at an obscured animal, take care when the ground is unfamiliar, and do shooting practice at least once a month. The high miss rate of basic-level stalkers suggests that training should include additional firing practice under realistic shooting conditions. PMID:25334012

Large-Scale Controls and Characteristics of Fire Activity in Central Chile, 2001-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McWethy, D. B.; Pauchard, A.; García, R.; Holz, A.; González, M.; Veblen, T. T.; Stahl, J.

2016-12-01

In recent decades, fire activity has increased in many ecosystems worldwide, even where fuel conditions and natural ignitions historically limited fire activity, and this increase begs questions of whether climate change, land-use change, and/or altered vegetation are responsible. Increased frequency of large fires in these settings has been attributed to drier-than-average summers and longer fire seasons as well as fuel accumulation related to ENSO events, raising concerns about the trajectory of post-fire vegetation dynamics and future fire regimes. In temperate and Mediterranean forests of central Chile, recent large fires associated with altered ecosystems, climate variability and land-use change highlight the risk and hazard of increasing fire activity yet the causes and consequences are poorly understood. To better understand characteristics of recent fire activity, key drivers of fire occurrence and the spatial probability of wildfire we examined the relationship between fire activity derived from MODIS satellite imagery and biophysical, land-cover and land-use variables. The probability of fire occurrence and annual area burned was best predicted by seasonal precipitation, annual temperature and land cover type. The likelihood of fire occurrence was greatest in Matorral shrublands, agricultural lands (including pasture lands) and Pinus and Eucalyptus plantations, highlighting the importance of vegetation type and fuel flammability as a critical control on fire activity. Our results suggest that land-use change responsible for the widespread presence of highly flammable vegetation and projections for continued warming and drying will likely combine to promote the occurrence of large fires in central Chile in the future.

Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests

PubMed Central

Williams, A. Park

2016-01-01

Increased forest fire activity across the western continental United States (US) in recent decades has likely been enabled by a number of factors, including the legacy of fire suppression and human settlement, natural climate variability, and human-caused climate change. We use modeled climate projections to estimate the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to observed increases in eight fuel aridity metrics and forest fire area across the western United States. Anthropogenic increases in temperature and vapor pressure deficit significantly enhanced fuel aridity across western US forests over the past several decades and, during 2000–2015, contributed to 75% more forested area experiencing high (>1 σ) fire-season fuel aridity and an average of nine additional days per year of high fire potential. Anthropogenic climate change accounted for ∼55% of observed increases in fuel aridity from 1979 to 2015 across western US forests, highlighting both anthropogenic climate change and natural climate variability as important contributors to increased wildfire potential in recent decades. We estimate that human-caused climate change contributed to an additional 4.2 million ha of forest fire area during 1984–2015, nearly doubling the forest fire area expected in its absence. Natural climate variability will continue to alternate between modulating and compounding anthropogenic increases in fuel aridity, but anthropogenic climate change has emerged as a driver of increased forest fire activity and should continue to do so while fuels are not limiting. PMID:27791053

Predicting fire impact from plant traits?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stoof, Cathelijne; Ottink, Roos; Zylstra, Philip; Cornelissen, Hans; Fernandes, Paulo

2017-04-01

Fire can considerably increase the landscape's vulnerability to flooding and erosion, which is in part caused by fire-induced soil heating, vegetation removal and resulting hydrological changes. While the magnitude of these fire effects and ecosystem responses is frequently studied, there is still little attention for the fundamental mechanisms that drive these changes. One example is on the effect of plants: while it is known that plants can alter the fire environment, there is a major knowledge gap regarding the fundamental mechanisms by which vegetation mediates fire impact on soil and hydrology. Essential to identifying these mechanisms is consideration of the effects of vegetation on flammability and fire behaviour, which are studied both in ecology and traditional fire science. Here we discuss the challenges of integrating these very distinct fields and the potential benefits of this integration for improved understanding of fire effects on soil and hydrology. We furthermore present results of a study in which we assessed the spatial drivers controlling the proportion of live and dead fuel in a natural park in northern Portugal, and evaluated the impacts on the spatial variability of fire behaviour and potential soil heating using BehavePlus modeling. Better understanding of the role of (spatial variability in) plant traits on fire impact can facilitate the development of risk maps to ultimately help predict and mitigate fire risk and impact across landscapes.

Modeling fire occurrence as a function of landscape

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loboda, T. V.; Carroll, M.; DiMiceli, C.

2011-12-01

Wildland fire is a prominent component of ecosystem functioning worldwide. Nearly all ecosystems experience the impact of naturally occurring or anthropogenically driven fire. Here, we present a spatially explicit and regionally parameterized Fire Occurrence Model (FOM) aimed at developing fire occurrence estimates at landscape and regional scales. The model provides spatially explicit scenarios of fire occurrence based on the available records from fire management agencies, satellite observations, and auxiliary geospatial data sets. Fire occurrence is modeled as a function of the risk of ignition, potential fire behavior, and fire weather using internal regression tree-driven algorithms and empirically established, regionally derived relationships between fire occurrence, fire behavior, and fire weather. The FOM presents a flexible modeling structure with a set of internal globally available default geospatial independent and dependent variables. However, the flexible modeling environment adapts to ingest a variable number, resolution, and content of inputs provided by the user to supplement or replace the default parameters to improve the model's predictive capability. A Southern California FOM instance (SC FOM) was developed using satellite assessments of fire activity from a suite of Landsat and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite data, Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity fire perimeters, and auxiliary geospatial information including land use and ownership, utilities, transportation routes, and the Remote Automated Weather Station data records. The model was parameterized based on satellite data acquired between 2001 and 2009 and fire management fire perimeters available prior to 2009. SC FOM predictive capabilities were assessed using observed fire occurrence available from the MODIS active fire product during 2010. The results show that SC FOM provides a realistic estimate of fire occurrence at the landscape level: the fraction of area impacted by fire from the total available area within a given value of the Fire Occurrence Index (FOI) increased from 9.e-06 at FOI < 3 to 28.e-06 at 25 < FOI <= 28. Additionally, the model has revealed a new important relationship between fire occurrence, anthropogenic activity, and fire weather. Data analysis has demonstrated that human activity can alter the expected weather/fire occurrence relationships and result in considerable modifications of fire regimes contrary to the assumed ecological parameters. Specifically, between 2001 and 2009 over 50% of total fire impacted area burned during the low fire danger conditions (Canadian Fire Weather Index < 5). These findings and the FOM capabilities offer a new theoretical construct and an advanced tool for assessing the potential impacts of climate changes on fire regimes, particularly within landscapes which are impacted strongly by human activities. Future development of the FOM will focus on ingesting and internal downscaling of climate variables produced by General or Regional Circulation Models to develop scenarios of potential future change in fire occurrence under the influence of projected climate change at the appropriate regional or landscape scales.

Satellite, climatological, and theoretical inputs for modeling of the diurnal cycle of fire emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hyer, E. J.; Reid, J. S.; Schmidt, C. C.; Giglio, L.; Prins, E.

2009-12-01

The diurnal cycle of fire activity is crucial for accurate simulation of atmospheric effects of fire emissions, especially at finer spatial and temporal scales. Estimating diurnal variability in emissions is also a critical problem for construction of emissions estimates from multiple sensors with variable coverage patterns. An optimal diurnal emissions estimate will use as much information as possible from satellite fire observations, compensate known biases in those observations, and use detailed theoretical models of the diurnal cycle to fill in missing information. As part of ongoing improvements to the Fire Location and Monitoring of Burning Emissions (FLAMBE) fire monitoring system, we evaluated several different methods of integrating observations with different temporal sampling. We used geostationary fire detections from WF_ABBA, fire detection data from MODIS, empirical diurnal cycles from TRMM, and simple theoretical diurnal curves based on surface heating. Our experiments integrated these data in different combinations to estimate the diurnal cycles of emissions for each location and time. Hourly emissions estimates derived using these methods were tested using an aerosol transport model. We present results of this comparison, and discuss the implications of our results for the broader problem of multi-sensor data fusion in fire emissions modeling.

Trends and drivers of fire activity vary across California aridland ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Syphard, Alexandra D.; Keeley, Jon E.; Abatzoglou, John T.

2017-01-01

Fire activity has increased in western US aridland ecosystems due to increased human-caused ignitions and the expansion of flammable exotic grasses. Because many desert plants are not adapted to fire, increased fire activity may have long-lasting ecological impacts on native vegetation and the wildlife that depend on it. Given the heterogeneity across aridland ecosystems, it is important to understand how trends and drivers of fire vary, so management can be customized accordingly. We examined historical trends and quantified the relative importance of and interactions among multiple drivers of fire patterns across five aridland ecoregions in southeastern California from 1970 to 2010. Fire frequency increased across all ecoregions for the first couple decades, and declined or plateaued since the 1990s; but area burned continued to increase in some regions. The relative importance of anthropogenic and biophysical drivers varied across ecoregions, with both direct and indirect influences on fire. Anthropogenic variables were equally important as biophysical variables, but some contributed indirectly, presumably via their influence on annual grass distribution and abundance. Grass burned disproportionately more than other cover types, suggesting that addressing exotics may be the key to fire management and conservation in much of the area.

Resistance of the boreal forest to high burn rates.

PubMed

Héon, Jessie; Arseneault, Dominique; Parisien, Marc-André

2014-09-23

Boreal ecosystems and their large carbon stocks are strongly shaped by extensive wildfires. Coupling climate projections with records of area burned during the last 3 decades across the North American boreal zone suggests that area burned will increase by 30-500% by the end of the 21st century, with a cascading effect on ecosystem dynamics and on the boreal carbon balance. Fire size and the frequency of large-fire years are both expected to increase. However, how fire size and time since previous fire will influence future burn rates is poorly understood, mostly because of incomplete records of past fire overlaps. Here, we reconstruct the length of overlapping fires along a 190-km-long transect during the last 200 y in one of the most fire-prone boreal regions of North America to document how fire size and time since previous fire will influence future fire recurrence. We provide direct field evidence that extreme burn rates can be sustained by a few occasional droughts triggering immense fires. However, we also show that the most fire-prone areas of the North American boreal forest are resistant to high burn rates because of overabundant young forest stands, thereby creating a fuel-mediated negative feedback on fire activity. These findings will help refine projections of fire effect on boreal ecosystems and their large carbon stocks.

Resistance of the boreal forest to high burn rates

PubMed Central

Héon, Jessie; Arseneault, Dominique; Parisien, Marc-André

2014-01-01

Boreal ecosystems and their large carbon stocks are strongly shaped by extensive wildfires. Coupling climate projections with records of area burned during the last 3 decades across the North American boreal zone suggests that area burned will increase by 30–500% by the end of the 21st century, with a cascading effect on ecosystem dynamics and on the boreal carbon balance. Fire size and the frequency of large-fire years are both expected to increase. However, how fire size and time since previous fire will influence future burn rates is poorly understood, mostly because of incomplete records of past fire overlaps. Here, we reconstruct the length of overlapping fires along a 190-km-long transect during the last 200 y in one of the most fire-prone boreal regions of North America to document how fire size and time since previous fire will influence future fire recurrence. We provide direct field evidence that extreme burn rates can be sustained by a few occasional droughts triggering immense fires. However, we also show that the most fire-prone areas of the North American boreal forest are resistant to high burn rates because of overabundant young forest stands, thereby creating a fuel-mediated negative feedback on fire activity. These findings will help refine projections of fire effect on boreal ecosystems and their large carbon stocks. PMID:25201981

GABAB-receptor activation alters the firing pattern of dopamine neurons in the rat substantia nigra.

PubMed

Engberg, G; Kling-Petersen, T; Nissbrandt, H

1993-11-01

Previous electrophysiological experiments have emphasized the importance of the firing pattern for the functioning of midbrain dopamine (DA) neurons. In this regard, excitatory amino acid receptors appear to constitute an important modulatory control mechanism. In the present study, extracellular recording techniques were used to investigate the significance of GABAB-receptor activation for the firing properties of DA neurons in the substantia nigra (SN) in the rat. Intravenous administration of the GABAB-receptor agonist baclofen (1-16 mg/kg) was associated with a dose-dependent regularization of the firing pattern, concomitant with a reduction in burst firing. At higher doses (16-32 mg/kg), the firing rate of the DA neurons was dose-dependently decreased. Also, microiontophoretic application of baclofen regularized the firing pattern of nigral DA neurons, including a reduction of burst firing. Both the regularization of the firing pattern and inhibition of firing rate produced by systemic baclofen administration was antagonized by the GABAB-receptor antagonist CGP 35348 (200 mg/kg, i.v.). The GABAA-receptor agonist muscimol produced effects on the firing properties of DA neurons that were opposite to those observed following baclofen, i.e., an increase in firing rate accompanied by a decreased regularity. The NMDA receptor antagonist MK 801 (0.4-3.2 mg/kg, i.v.) produced a moderate, dose-dependent increase in the firing rate of the nigral DA neurons as well as a slightly regularized firing pattern. Pretreatment with MK 801 (3.2 mg/kg, i.v., 3-10 min) did neither promote nor prevent the regularization of the firing pattern or inhibition of firing rate on the nigral DA neurons produced by baclofen. The present results clearly show that GABAB-receptors can alter the firing pattern of nigral DA neurons, hereby counterbalancing the previously described ability of glutamate to induce burst firing activity on these neurons.

Noise in Attractor Networks in the Brain Produced by Graded Firing Rate Representations

PubMed Central

Webb, Tristan J.; Rolls, Edmund T.; Deco, Gustavo; Feng, Jianfeng

2011-01-01

Representations in the cortex are often distributed with graded firing rates in the neuronal populations. The firing rate probability distribution of each neuron to a set of stimuli is often exponential or gamma. In processes in the brain, such as decision-making, that are influenced by the noise produced by the close to random spike timings of each neuron for a given mean rate, the noise with this graded type of representation may be larger than with the binary firing rate distribution that is usually investigated. In integrate-and-fire simulations of an attractor decision-making network, we show that the noise is indeed greater for a given sparseness of the representation for graded, exponential, than for binary firing rate distributions. The greater noise was measured by faster escaping times from the spontaneous firing rate state when the decision cues are applied, and this corresponds to faster decision or reaction times. The greater noise was also evident as less stability of the spontaneous firing state before the decision cues are applied. The implication is that spiking-related noise will continue to be a factor that influences processes such as decision-making, signal detection, short-term memory, and memory recall even with the quite large networks found in the cerebral cortex. In these networks there are several thousand recurrent collateral synapses onto each neuron. The greater noise with graded firing rate distributions has the advantage that it can increase the speed of operation of cortical circuitry. PMID:21931607

Exact solutions for rate and synchrony in recurrent networks of coincidence detectors.

PubMed

Mikula, Shawn; Niebur, Ernst

2008-11-01

We provide analytical solutions for mean firing rates and cross-correlations of coincidence detector neurons in recurrent networks with excitatory or inhibitory connectivity, with rate-modulated steady-state spiking inputs. We use discrete-time finite-state Markov chains to represent network state transition probabilities, which are subsequently used to derive exact analytical solutions for mean firing rates and cross-correlations. As illustrated in several examples, the method can be used for modeling cortical microcircuits and clarifying single-neuron and population coding mechanisms. We also demonstrate that increasing firing rates do not necessarily translate into increasing cross-correlations, though our results do support the contention that firing rates and cross-correlations are likely to be coupled. Our analytical solutions underscore the complexity of the relationship between firing rates and cross-correlations.

Combining Landsat TM multispectral satellite imagery and different modelling approaches for mapping post-fire erosion changes in a Mediterranean site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petropoulos, George P.; Kairis, Orestis; Karamesouti, Mina; Papanikolaou, Ioannis D.; Kosmas, Constantinos

2013-04-01

South European countries are naturally vulnerable to wildfires. Their natural resources such as soil, vegetation and water may be severely affected by wildfires, causing an imminent environmental deterioration due to the complex interdependence among biophysical components. Soil surface water erosion is a natural process essential for soil formation that is affected by such interdependences. Accelerated erosion due to wildfires, constitutes a major restrictive factor for ecosystem sustainability. In 2007, South European countries were severely affected by wildfires, with more than 500,000 hectares of land burnt in that year alone, well above the average of the last 30 years. The present work examines the changes in spatial variability of soil erosion rates as a result of a wildfire event that took place in Greece in 2007, one of the most devastating years in terms of wildfire hazards. Regional estimates of soil erosion rates before and after the fire outbreak were derived from the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE, Renard et al. 1991) and the Pan-European Soil Erosion Risk Assessment model (PESERA, Kirkby, 1999; Kirkby et al., 2000). Inputs for both models included climatic, land-use, soil type, topography and land use management data. Where appropriate, both models were also fed with input data derived from the analysis of LANDSAT TM satellite imagery available in our study area, acquired before and shortly after the fire suppression. Our study was compiled and performed in a GIS environment. In overall, the loss of vegetation from the fire outbreak caused a substantial increase of soil erosion rates in the affected area, particularly towards the steep slopes. Both tested models were compared to each other and noticeable differences were observed in the soil erosion predictions before and after the fire event. These are attributed to the different parameterization requirements of the 2 models. This quantification of sediment supply through the river network provides also important insights regarding both the present-day sedimentation processes in the study area as well as the potential flooding hazard. Our work underpins that valuable contribution of remote sensing technology, combined with modeling approaches for depicting the spatial distribution of changes in erosion rates after the wildfire. KEYWORDS: erosion risk, RUSLE, PESERA, wildland fires, LANDSAT TM, remote sensing, Geographical Information Systems, Greece.

Comparative ratings of 1951 forest fire weather in western Oregon.

Treesearch

Owen P. Cramer; Robert Kirkpatrick

1951-01-01

The 1951 forest fire weather in western Oregon is generally conceded to have been unusually severe. In order to compare this season with others, this report uses a scheme for rating fire seasons recently developed by the Fire Research section of the Experiment Station, The rating is based on indices of three weather characteristics which generally control burning...

Burning rates of wood cribs with implications for wildland fires

Treesearch

Sara McAllister; Mark Finney

2016-01-01

Wood cribs are often used as ignition sources for room fire tests and the well characterized burning rates may also have applications to wildland fires. The burning rate of wildland fuel structures, whether the needle layer on the ground or trees and shrubs themselves, is not addressed in any operational fire model and no simple model exists. Several relations...

Climate controls on fire pattern in African and Australian continents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zubkova, M.; Boschetti, L.; Abatzoglou, J. T.

2017-12-01

Studies have primarily attributed the recent decrease in global fire activity in many savanna and grassland regions as detected by the Global Fire Emission Database (GFEDv4s) to anthropogenic changes such as deforestation and cropland expansion (Andela et al. 2017, van der Werf et al. 2008). These changes have occurred despite increases in fire weather season length (Jolly et al. 2015). Efforts to better resolve retrospective and future changes in fire activity require refining the host of influences on societal and environmental factors on fire activity. In this study, we analyzed how climate variability influences interannual fire activity in Africa and Australia, the two continents most affected by fire and responsible for over half of the global pyrogenic emissions. We expand on the analysis presented in Andela et al. (2017) by using the most recent Collection 6 MODIS MCD64 Burned Area Product and exploring the explanatory power of a broader suite of climate variables that have been previously shown to explain fire variability (Bowman et al. 2017). We examined which climate metrics show a strong interannual relationship with the amount of burned area and fire size accounting for antecedent and in-season atmospheric conditions. Fire characteristics were calculated using the 500m resolution MCD64A1 product (2002-2016); the analysis was conducted at the ecoregion scale, and further stratified by landcover using a broad aggregation (forest, shrublands and grasslands) of the Landcover CCI maps (CCI-LC, 2014); all agricultural areas fires were excluded from the analysis. The results of the analysis improve our knowledge of climate controls on fire dynamics in the most fire-prone places in the world which is critical for statistical fire and vegetation models. Being able to predict the impact of climate on fire activity has a strategic importance in designing future fire management scenarios, help to avoid degradation of biodiversity and ecosystem services and improve our understanding of future ecological problems that we can face due to climate change. Andela et al. 2017. doi: 10.1126/science.aal4108 Bowman et al. 2017. doi:10.1038/s41559-016-0058 CCI-LC. 2014. CCI-LC Product User Guide. UCL-Geomatics, Belgium Lolly et al. 2015. doi:10.1038/ncomms8537 van der Werf et al. 2008. doi:10.1029/2007GB003122

Force encoding in muscle spindles during stretch of passive muscle

PubMed Central

Blum, Kyle P.; Zytnicki, Daniel

2017-01-01

Muscle spindle proprioceptive receptors play a primary role in encoding the effects of external mechanical perturbations to the body. During externally-imposed stretches of passive, i.e. electrically-quiescent, muscles, the instantaneous firing rates (IFRs) of muscle spindles are associated with characteristics of stretch such as length and velocity. However, even in passive muscle, there are history-dependent transients of muscle spindle firing that are not uniquely related to muscle length and velocity, nor reproduced by current muscle spindle models. These include acceleration-dependent initial bursts, increased dynamic response to stretch velocity if a muscle has been isometric, and rate relaxation, i.e., a decrease in tonic IFR when a muscle is held at a constant length after being stretched. We collected muscle spindle spike trains across a variety of muscle stretch kinematic conditions, including systematic changes in peak length, velocity, and acceleration. We demonstrate that muscle spindle primary afferents in passive muscle fire in direct relationship to muscle force-related variables, rather than length-related variables. Linear combinations of whole muscle-tendon force and the first time derivative of force (dF/dt) predict the entire time course of transient IFRs in muscle spindle Ia afferents during stretch (i.e., lengthening) of passive muscle, including the initial burst, the dynamic response to lengthening, and rate relaxation following lengthening. Similar to acceleration scaling found previously in postural responses to perturbations, initial burst amplitude scaled equally well to initial stretch acceleration or dF/dt, though later transients were only described by dF/dt. The transient increase in dF/dt at the onset of lengthening reflects muscle short-range stiffness due to cross-bridge dynamics. Our work demonstrates a critical role of muscle cross-bridge dynamics in history-dependent muscle spindle IFRs in passive muscle lengthening conditions relevant to the detection and sensorimotor response to mechanical perturbations to the body, and to previously-described history-dependence in perception of limb position. PMID:28945740

Force encoding in muscle spindles during stretch of passive muscle.

PubMed

Blum, Kyle P; Lamotte D'Incamps, Boris; Zytnicki, Daniel; Ting, Lena H

2017-09-01

Muscle spindle proprioceptive receptors play a primary role in encoding the effects of external mechanical perturbations to the body. During externally-imposed stretches of passive, i.e. electrically-quiescent, muscles, the instantaneous firing rates (IFRs) of muscle spindles are associated with characteristics of stretch such as length and velocity. However, even in passive muscle, there are history-dependent transients of muscle spindle firing that are not uniquely related to muscle length and velocity, nor reproduced by current muscle spindle models. These include acceleration-dependent initial bursts, increased dynamic response to stretch velocity if a muscle has been isometric, and rate relaxation, i.e., a decrease in tonic IFR when a muscle is held at a constant length after being stretched. We collected muscle spindle spike trains across a variety of muscle stretch kinematic conditions, including systematic changes in peak length, velocity, and acceleration. We demonstrate that muscle spindle primary afferents in passive muscle fire in direct relationship to muscle force-related variables, rather than length-related variables. Linear combinations of whole muscle-tendon force and the first time derivative of force (dF/dt) predict the entire time course of transient IFRs in muscle spindle Ia afferents during stretch (i.e., lengthening) of passive muscle, including the initial burst, the dynamic response to lengthening, and rate relaxation following lengthening. Similar to acceleration scaling found previously in postural responses to perturbations, initial burst amplitude scaled equally well to initial stretch acceleration or dF/dt, though later transients were only described by dF/dt. The transient increase in dF/dt at the onset of lengthening reflects muscle short-range stiffness due to cross-bridge dynamics. Our work demonstrates a critical role of muscle cross-bridge dynamics in history-dependent muscle spindle IFRs in passive muscle lengthening conditions relevant to the detection and sensorimotor response to mechanical perturbations to the body, and to previously-described history-dependence in perception of limb position.

Effect of autogenic training on cardiac autonomic nervous activity in high-risk fire service workers for posttraumatic stress disorder.

PubMed

Mitani, Satoko; Fujita, Masatoshi; Sakamoto, Satoko; Shirakawa, Taro

2006-05-01

We investigated the effect of autogenic training (AT) on cardiac autonomic nervous activity in fire services workers with the use of the questionnaire of the Japanese-language version of Impact of Event Scale-Revised (IES-R-J) and indexes of heart rate variability. We studied 22 male fire services workers who were divided into posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD)-related stress group (n=10) and control group (n=12). They underwent AT twice or three times a week for 2 months. Posttraumatic stress disorder-related stress group showed a significantly higher cardiac sympathetic nervous activity and a significantly lower cardiac parasympathetic nervous activity than control group at baseline. Autogenic training significantly decreased cardiac sympathetic nervous activity and significantly increased cardiac parasympathetic nervous activity in both groups. These changes were accompanied by a significant decrease in the total points of IES-R-J. Autogenic training is effective for ameliorating the disturbance of cardiac autonomic nervous activity and psychological issues secondary to PTSD.

Phenology-based, remote sensing of post-burn disturbance windows in rangelands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sankeya, Joel B.; Wallace, Cynthia S.A.; Ravi, Sujith

2013-01-01

Wildland fire activity has increased in many parts of the world in recent decades. Ecological disturbance by fire can accelerate ecosystem degradation processes such as erosion due to combustion of vegetation that otherwise provides protective cover to the soil surface. This study employed a novel ecological indicator based on remote sensing of vegetation greenness dynamics (phenology) to estimate variability in the window of time between fire and the reemergence of green vegetation. The indicator was applied as a proxy for short-term, post-fire disturbance windows in rangelands; where a disturbance window is defined as the time required for an ecological or geomorphic process that is altered to return to pre-disturbance levels. We examined variability in the indicator determined for time series of MODIS and AVHRR NDVI remote sensing data for a database of ∼100 historical wildland fires, with associated post-fire reseeding treatments, that burned 1990–2003 in cold desert shrub steppe of the Great Basin and Columbia Plateau of the western USA. The indicator-based estimates of disturbance window length were examined relative to the day of the year that fires burned and seeding treatments to consider effects of contemporary variability in fire regime and management activities in this environment. A key finding was that contemporary changes of increased length of the annual fire season could have indirect effects on ecosystem degradation, as early season fires appeared to result in longer time that soils remained relatively bare of the protective cover of vegetation after fires. Also important was that reemergence of vegetation did not occur more quickly after fire in sites treated with post-fire seeding, which is a strategy commonly employed to accelerate post-fire vegetation recovery and stabilize soil. Future work with the indicator could examine other ecological factors that are dynamic in space and time following disturbance – such as nutrient cycling, carbon storage, microbial community composition, or soil hydrology – as a function of disturbance windows, possibly using simulation modeling and historical wildfire information.

Modelling fire frequency and area burned across phytoclimatic regions in Spain using reanalysis data and the Canadian Fire Weather Index System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bedia, J.; Herrera, S.; Gutiérrez, J. M.

2013-09-01

We develop fire occurrence and burned area models in peninsular Spain, an area of high variability in climate and fuel types, for the period 1990-2008. We based the analysis on a phytoclimatic classification aiming to the stratification of the territory into homogeneous units in terms of climatic and fuel type characteristics, allowing to test model performance under different climatic and fuel conditions. We used generalized linear models (GLM) and multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) as modelling algorithms and temperature, relative humidity, precipitation and wind speed, taken from the ERA-Interim reanalysis, as well as the components of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System as predictors. We also computed the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) as an additional predictor for the models of burned area. We found two contrasting fire regimes in terms of area burned and number of fires: one characterized by a bimodal annual pattern, characterizing the Nemoral and Oro-boreal phytoclimatic types, and another one exhibiting an unimodal annual cycle, with the fire season concentrated in the summer months in the Mediterranean and Arid regions. The fire occurrence models attained good skill in most of the phytoclimatic zones considered, yielding in some zones notably high correlation coefficients between the observed and modelled inter-annual fire frequencies. Total area burned also exhibited a high dependence on the meteorological drivers, although their ability to reproduce the observed annual burned area time series was poor in most cases. We identified temperature and some FWI system components as the most important explanatory variables, and also SPEI in some of the burned area models, highlighting the adequacy of the FWI system for fire modelling applications and leaving the door opened to the development a more complex modelling framework based on these predictors. Furthermore, we demonstrate the potential usefulness of ERA-Interim reanalysis data for the reconstruction of historical fire-climate relationships at the scale of analysis. Fire frequency predictions may provide a preferable basis for past fire history reconstruction, long-term monitoring and the assessment of future climate impacts on fire regimes across regions, posing several advantages over burned area as response variable.

Long-term impacts of boreal wildfire on carbon cycling dynamics in Interior Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaglioti, B.; Mann, D. H.; Finney, B.; Pohlman, J.; Jones, B. M.; Arp, C. D.; Wooller, M. J.

2013-12-01

Wildland fire is a major disturbance in the boreal forest, and warming climate will likely increase the frequency and severity of burning. Fires trigger thermokarst, the thawing of permafrost (perennially frozen ground), which can release large amounts of ancient carbon to the atmosphere. But how vulnerable is the organic carbon stored in permafrost in the boreal forest to a changing fire regime? Paleolimnological records can tell us how the landscape actually responded during prehistoric fires and provide a valuable perspective on future events. Here we present a whole-watershed summary of terrestrial and aquatic carbon dynamics during multiple fire and thermokarst disturbances over the last millennia. We use laminated lake sediments laid down in a permanently stratified, thermokarst lake basin in Interior Alaska to decipher the impacts of wildfires on permafrost carbon release from the surrounding watershed. Sediment chronologies based on layer counts, lead and cesium dating, and radiocarbon dating of plant macrofossils, provide a near-annual resolution of environmental changes over the last 1100 years. Charcoal accumulation rates quantified from sediment thin-sections and fire-scarred spruce trees constrain the timing of fires. The variability of permafrost carbon release before and after fires was investigated by analyzing several geochemical indices including radiocarbon dating on the sediment organic matter directly above and below charcoal layers in the sediment stack. The difference between a sediment layers 'true' age of deposition based on layer counts and the apparent radiocarbon age on the same bulk sediment material (radiocarbon age offset) is then used as a proxy for permafrost carbon release. The relative age of permafrost-derived organic carbon entering the lake before and after past fires was determined by radiocarbon age offsets before and after wildfire events. Fires are not the only triggers of permafrost-C release. Thermokarst caused by shoreline erosion triggered by some combination of fires, beaver dams that raise lake levels, and chance events complicate the larger watershed signal of C release.

The impact of wildland fires on calcareous Mediterranean pedosystems (Sardinia, Italy) - An integrated multiple approach.

PubMed

Capra, Gian Franco; Tidu, Simona; Lovreglio, Raffaella; Certini, Giacomo; Salis, Michele; Bacciu, Valentina; Ganga, Antonio; Filzmoser, Peter

2018-05-15

Sardinia (Italy), the second largest island of the Mediterranean Sea, is a fire-prone land. Most Sardinian environments over time were shaped by fire, but some of them are too intrinsically fragile to withstand the currently increasing fire frequency. Calcareous pedoenvironments represent a significant part of Mediterranean areas, and require important efforts to prevent long-lasting degradation from fire. The aim of this study was to assess through an integrated multiple approach the impact of a single and highly severe wildland fire on limestone-derived soils. For this purpose, we selected two recently burned sites, Sant'Antioco and Laconi. Soil was sampled from 80 points on a 100×100m grid - 40 in the burned area and 40 in unburned one - and analyzed for particle size fractions, pH, electrical conductivity, organic carbon, total N, total P, and water repellency (WR). Fire behavior (surface rate of spread (ROS), fireline intensity (FLI), flame length (FL)) was simulated by BehavePlus 5.0.5 software. Comparisons between burned and unburned areas were done through ANOVA as well as deterministic and stochastic interpolation techniques; multiple correlations among parameters were evaluated by principal factor analysis (PFA) and differences/similarities between areas by principal component analysis (PCA). In both sites, fires were characterized by high severity and determined significant changes to some soil properties. The PFA confirmed the key ecological role played by fire in both sites, with the variability of a four-modeled components mainly explained by fire parameters, although the induced changes on soils were mainly site-specific. The PCA revealed the presence of two main "driving factors": slope (in Sant'Antioco), which increased the magnitude of ROS and FLI; and soil properties (in Laconi), which mostly affected FL. In both sites, such factors played a direct role in differentiating fire behavior and sites, while they played an indirect role in determining some effects on soil. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Appraising fuels and flammability in western aspen: a prescribed fire guide

Treesearch

James K. Brown; Dennis G. Simmerman

1986-01-01

Describes a method for appraising fuels and fire behavior potential in aspen forests to guide the use of prescribed fire and the preparation of fire prescriptions. Includes an illustrated classification of aspen fuels; appraisals of fireline intensity, rate of spread, adjective ratings for fire behavior and probability of burn success; and evaluations of seasonal...

Pre-fire treatments have persistent effects on post-fire plant communities

Treesearch

Kristen L. Shive

2012-01-01

Wildfires characterized by large areas of high severity are increasingly occurring in ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa P. & C. Lawson) forests of the Southwest to extents that are out of the natural range of variability. Managers are now routinely applying thinning and/or burning treatments to reduce fire severity. To investigate the effects of pre-fire treatments...

Trends in fire patterns in a southern African savanna under alternative land use practices

Treesearch

A. T. Hudak; D. H. K. Fairbanks; B. H. Brockett

2004-01-01

Climate, topography, vegetation and land use interact to influence fire regimes.Variable fire regimes may promote landscape heterogeneity, diversification in vegetation pattern and biotic diversity. The objective was to compare effects of alternative land use practices on landscape heterogeneity. Patch characteristics of fire scars were measured from 21 annual burn...

Evaluating potential trade-offs among fuel treatment strategies in mixed-conifer forests of the Sierra Nevada

Treesearch

Jens T. Stevens; Brandon M. Collins; Jonathan W. Long; Malcolm P. North; Susan J. Prichard; Leland W. Tarnay; Angela M. White

2016-01-01

Fuel treatments in fire-suppressed mixed-conifer forests are designed to moderate potential wildfire behavior and effects. However, the objectives for modifying potential fire effects can vary widely, from improving fire suppression efforts and protecting infrastructure, to reintroducing low-severity fire, to restoring and maintaining variable forest structure and...

Forest fire and climate change in western North America: insights from sediment charcoal records.

Treesearch

Daniel G Gavin; Douglas J Hallett; Feng Sheng Hu; Kenneth P Lertzman; Susan J Prichard; Kendrick J Brown; Jason A Lynch; Patrick Bartlein; David L. Peterson

2007-01-01

Millennial-scale records of forest fire provide important baseline information for ecosystem management, especially in regions with too few recent fires to describe the historical range of variability. Charcoal records from lake sediments and soil profiles are well suited for reconstructing the incidence of past fire and its relationship to changing climate and...

Contribution of human, climate and biophysical drivers to the spatial distribution of wildfires in a French Mediterranean area: where do wildfires start and spread?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruffault, Julien; Mouillot, Florent; Moebius, Flavia

2013-04-01

Understanding the contribution of biophysical and human drivers to the spatial distribution of fires at regional scale has many ecological and economical implications in a context of on-going global changes. However these fire drivers often interact in complex ways, such that disentangling and assessing the relative contribution of human vs. biophysical factors remains a major challenge. Indeed, the identification of biophysical conditions that promote fires are confused by the inherent stochasticity in fire occurrences and fire spread on the one hand and, by the influence of human factors -through both fire ignition and suppression - on the other. Moreover, different factors may drive fire ignition and fire spread, in such a way that the areas with the highest density of ignitions may not coincide with those where large fires occur. In the present study, we investigated the drivers of fires ignition and spread in a Mediterranean area of southern France. We used a 17 years fire database (the PROMETHEE database from 1989-2006) combined with a set of 8 explanatory variables describing the spatial pattern in ignitions, vegetation and fire weather. We first isolated the weather conditions affecting the fire occurrence and their spread using a statistical model of the weather/fuel water status for each fire event.. The results of these statistical models were used to map the fire weather in terms of average number of days with suitable conditions for burning. Then, we used Boosted regression trees (BRT) models to assess the relative importance of the different variables on the distribution of wildfire with different sizes and to assess the relationship between each variables and fire occurrence and spread probabilities. We found that human activities explained up to 50 % of the spatial distribution of fire ignitions (SDI). The distribution of large fire was chiefly explained by fuel characteristics (about 40%). Surprisingly, the weather indices explained only 20 % of the SDI and its contribution does no vary according to the size of considered fire events. These results suggest that changes in fuel characteristics and human settlements/ activities, rather than weather conditions are the most likely to modify the future distribution of fires in this Mediterranean area. These conclusions provide useful information on the scenarios that could arise from the interaction of changes in climate and land cover for the Mediterranean area in the near future.

Mixed-severity fire history at a forest-grassland ecotone in west central British Columbia, Canada.

PubMed

Harvey, Jill E; Smith, Dan J; Veblen, Thomas T

2017-09-01

This study examines spatially variable stand structure and fire-climate relationships at a low elevation forest-grassland ecotone in west central British Columbia, Canada. Fire history reconstructions were based on samples from 92 fire-scarred trees and stand demography from 27 plots collected over an area of about 7 km 2 . We documented historical chronologies of widespread fires and localized grassland fires between AD 1600 and 1900. Relationships between fire events, reconstructed values of the Palmer Drought Severity Index, and annual precipitation were examined using superposed epoch and bivariate event analyses. Widespread fires occurred during warm, dry years and were preceded by multiple anomalously dry, warm years. Localized fires that affected only grassland-proximal forests were more frequent than widespread fires. These localized fires showed a lagged, positive relationship with wetter conditions. The landscape pattern of forest structure provided further evidence of complex fire activity with multiple plots shown to have experienced low-, mixed-, and/or high-severity fires over the last four centuries. We concluded that this forest-grassland ecotone was characterized by fires of mixed severity, dominated by frequent, low-severity fires punctuated by widespread fires of moderate to high severity. This landscape-level variability in fire-climate relationships and patterns in forest structure has important implications for fire and grassland management in west central British Columbia and similar environments elsewhere. Forest restoration techniques such as prescribed fire and thinning are oftentimes applied at the forest-grassland ecotone on the basis that historically high frequency, low-severity fires defined the character of past fire activity. This study provides forest managers and policy makers with important information on mixed-severity fire activity at a low elevation forest-grassland ecotone, a crucial prerequisite for the effective management of these complex ecosystems. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Probabilistic discrimination between liquid rainfall events, hailstorms, biomass burning and industrial fires from C-Band Radar Polarimetric Variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valencia, J. M.; Sepúlveda, J.; Hoyos, C.; Herrera, L.

2017-12-01

Characterization and identification of fire and hailstorm events using weather radar data in a tropical complex topography region is an important task in risk management and agriculture. Polarimetric variables from a C-Band Dual polarization weather radar have potential uses in particle classification, due to the relationship their sensitivity to shape, spatial orientation, size and fall behavior of particles. In this sense, three forest fires and two chemical fires were identified for the Áburra Valley regions. Measurements were compared between each fire event type and with typical data radar retrievals for liquid precipitation events. Results of this analysis show different probability density functions for each type of event according to the particles present in them. This is very important and useful result for early warning systems to avoid precipitation false alarms during fire events within the study region, as well as for the early detection of fires using radar retrievals in remote cases. The comparative methodology is extended to hailstorm cases. Complementary sensors like laser precipitation sensors (LPM) disdrometers and meteorological stations were used to select dates of solid precipitation occurrence. Then, in this dates weather radar data variables were taken in pixels surrounding the stations and solid precipitation polar values were statistically compared with liquid precipitation values. Spectrum precipitation measured by LPM disdrometer helps to define typical features like particles number, fall velocities and diameters for both precipitation types. In addition, to achieve a complete hailstorm characterization, other meteorological variables were analyzed: wind field from meteorological stations and radar wind profiler, profiling data from Micro Rain Radar (MRR), and thermodynamic data from a microwave radiometer.

Exact Solutions for Rate and Synchrony in Recurrent Networks of Coincidence Detectors

PubMed Central

Mikula, Shawn; Niebur, Ernst

2009-01-01

We provide analytical solutions for mean firing rates and cross-correlations of coincidence detector neurons in recurrent networks with excitatory or inhibitory connectivity with rate-modulated steady-state spiking inputs. We use discrete-time finite-state Markov chains to represent network state transition probabilities, which are subsequently used to derive exact analytical solutions for mean firing rates and cross-correlations. As illustrated in several examples, the method can be used for modeling cortical microcircuits and clarifying single-neuron and population coding mechanisms. We also demonstrate that increasing firing rates do not necessarily translate into increasing cross-correlations, though our results do support the contention that firing rates and cross-correlations are likely to be coupled. Our analytical solutions underscore the complexity of the relationship between firing rates and cross-correlations. PMID:18439133

Estimating stand structure using discrete-return lidar: an example from low density, fire prone ponderosa pine forests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hall, S. A.; Burke, I.C.; Box, D. O.; Kaufmann, M. R.; Stoker, Jason M.

2005-01-01

The ponderosa pine forests of the Colorado Front Range, USA, have historically been subjected to wildfires. Recent large burns have increased public interest in fire behavior and effects, and scientific interest in the carbon consequences of wildfires. Remote sensing techniques can provide spatially explicit estimates of stand structural characteristics. Some of these characteristics can be used as inputs to fire behavior models, increasing our understanding of the effect of fuels on fire behavior. Others provide estimates of carbon stocks, allowing us to quantify the carbon consequences of fire. Our objective was to use discrete-return lidar to estimate such variables, including stand height, total aboveground biomass, foliage biomass, basal area, tree density, canopy base height and canopy bulk density. We developed 39 metrics from the lidar data, and used them in limited combinations in regression models, which we fit to field estimates of the stand structural variables. We used an information–theoretic approach to select the best model for each variable, and to select the subset of lidar metrics with most predictive potential. Observed versus predicted values of stand structure variables were highly correlated, with r2 ranging from 57% to 87%. The most parsimonious linear models for the biomass structure variables, based on a restricted dataset, explained between 35% and 58% of the observed variability. Our results provide us with useful estimates of stand height, total aboveground biomass, foliage biomass and basal area. There is promise for using this sensor to estimate tree density, canopy base height and canopy bulk density, though more research is needed to generate robust relationships. We selected 14 lidar metrics that showed the most potential as predictors of stand structure. We suggest that the focus of future lidar studies should broaden to include low density forests, particularly systems where the vertical structure of the canopy is important, such as fire prone forests.

Effects of climate and fire on short-term vegetation recovery in the boreal larch forests of Northeastern China.

PubMed

Liu, Zhihua

2016-11-18

Understanding the influence of climate variability and fire characteristics in shaping postfire vegetation recovery will help to predict future ecosystem trajectories in boreal forests. In this study, I asked: (1) which remotely-sensed vegetation index (VI) is a good proxy for vegetation recovery? and (2) what are the relative influences of climate and fire in controlling postfire vegetation recovery in a Siberian larch forest, a globally important but poorly understood ecosystem type? Analysis showed that the shortwave infrared (SWIR) VI is a good indicator of postfire vegetation recovery in boreal larch forests. A boosted regression tree analysis showed that postfire recovery was collectively controlled by processes that controlled seed availability, as well as by site conditions and climate variability. Fire severity and its spatial variability played a dominant role in determining vegetation recovery, indicating seed availability as the primary mechanism affecting postfire forest resilience. Environmental and immediate postfire climatic conditions appear to be less important, but interact strongly with fire severity to influence postfire recovery. If future warming and fire regimes manifest as expected in this region, seed limitation and climate-induced regeneration failure will become more prevalent and severe, which may cause forests to shift to alternative stable states.

Effects of climate and fire on short-term vegetation recovery in the boreal larch forests of Northeastern China

PubMed Central

Liu, Zhihua

2016-01-01

Understanding the influence of climate variability and fire characteristics in shaping postfire vegetation recovery will help to predict future ecosystem trajectories in boreal forests. In this study, I asked: (1) which remotely-sensed vegetation index (VI) is a good proxy for vegetation recovery? and (2) what are the relative influences of climate and fire in controlling postfire vegetation recovery in a Siberian larch forest, a globally important but poorly understood ecosystem type? Analysis showed that the shortwave infrared (SWIR) VI is a good indicator of postfire vegetation recovery in boreal larch forests. A boosted regression tree analysis showed that postfire recovery was collectively controlled by processes that controlled seed availability, as well as by site conditions and climate variability. Fire severity and its spatial variability played a dominant role in determining vegetation recovery, indicating seed availability as the primary mechanism affecting postfire forest resilience. Environmental and immediate postfire climatic conditions appear to be less important, but interact strongly with fire severity to influence postfire recovery. If future warming and fire regimes manifest as expected in this region, seed limitation and climate-induced regeneration failure will become more prevalent and severe, which may cause forests to shift to alternative stable states. PMID:27857204

Measurements of reactive trace gases and variable O 3 formation rates in some South Carolina biomass burning plumes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Akagi, S. K.; Yokelson, R. J.; Burling, I. R.

2013-02-01

In October-November 2011 we measured the trace gas emission factors from 7 prescribed fires in South Carolina, U.S. using two Fourier transform infrared spectrometer (FTIR) systems and whole air sampling (WAS) into canisters followed by gas-chromatographic analyses. The fires were intended to emulate high-intensity burns as they were lit during the dry season and in most cases represented stands that had not been treated with prescribed burns in 10+ years, if at all. A total of 97 trace gas species are reported here from both airborne and ground-based platforms making this one of the most detailed field studies of firemore » emissions to date. The measurements included the first data for a suite of monoterpene compounds emitted via distillation of plant tissues during real fires. The known chemistry of the monoterpenes and their measured abundance of ~0.40% of CO (molar basis), ~3.9% of NMOC (molar basis), and ~21% of organic aerosol (mass basis), suggests that they impacted post-emission formation of ozone, aerosol, and small organic trace gases such as methanol and formaldehyde in the sampled plumes. The variability in the terpene emissions in South Carolina (SC) fire plumes was high and, in general, the speciation of the emitted gas-phase non-methane organic compounds was surprisingly different from that observed in a similar study in nominally similar pine forests in North Carolina ~20 months earlier. It is likely that the slightly different ecosystems, time of year and the precursor variability all contributed to the variability in plume chemistry observed in this study and in the literature. The ΔHCN/ΔCO emission ratio, however, is fairly consistent at 0.9 ± 0.06 % for airborne fire measurements in coniferous-dominated ecosystems further confirming the value of HCN as a good biomass burning indicator/tracer. The SC results also support an earlier finding that C 3-C 4 alkynes may be of use as biomass burning indicators on the time-scale of hours to a day. It was possible to measure the chemical evolution of the plume on four of the fires and significant ozone (O 3) formation (ΔO 3/ΔCO from 10-90%) occurred in all of these plumes. Slower O 3 production was observed on a cloudy day with low co-emissions of NO x and the fastest O 3 production was observed on a sunny day when the plume almost certainly incorporated significant additional NO x by passing over the Columbia, SC metropolitian area. Due to rapid plume dilution, it was only possible to acquire high quality downwind data for two other species (formaldehyde and methanol) on two of the fires. In all four cases significant increases were observed. Finally, this is likely the first direct observation of post-emission methanol production in biomass burning plumes and the precursors likely included terpenes.« less

Developmental metaplasticity in neural circuit codes of firing and structure.

PubMed

Baram, Yoram

2017-01-01

Firing-rate dynamics have been hypothesized to mediate inter-neural information transfer in the brain. While the Hebbian paradigm, relating learning and memory to firing activity, has put synaptic efficacy variation at the center of cortical plasticity, we suggest that the external expression of plasticity by changes in the firing-rate dynamics represents a more general notion of plasticity. Hypothesizing that time constants of plasticity and firing dynamics increase with age, and employing the filtering property of the neuron, we obtain the elementary code of global attractors associated with the firing-rate dynamics in each developmental stage. We define a neural circuit connectivity code as an indivisible set of circuit structures generated by membrane and synapse activation and silencing. Synchronous firing patterns under parameter uniformity, and asynchronous circuit firing are shown to be driven, respectively, by membrane and synapse silencing and reactivation, and maintained by the neuronal filtering property. Analytic, graphical and simulation representation of the discrete iteration maps and of the global attractor codes of neural firing rate are found to be consistent with previous empirical neurobiological findings, which have lacked, however, a specific correspondence between firing modes, time constants, circuit connectivity and cortical developmental stages. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fires and fuels: Vegetation change over time in the Zuni Mountains, New Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wylie, Luke Anthony

The Zuni Mountains are a region that has been dramatically changed by human interference. Anthropogenically, fire suppression practices have allowed a buildup of fuels and caused a change in the fire-adapted ponderosa pine ecosystem such that the new ecosystem now incorporates many fire-intolerant species. As a result, the low-severity fires that the ecosystem once depended on to regenerate the forest are much reduced, and these low-severity fires are now replaced by crown-level infernos that threaten the forest and nearby towns. In order to combat these effects, land managers are implementing fuel reduction practices and are striving to better understand the local ecosystem. In this study, a predictive fire spread model (FARSITE) was implemented to predict spatio-temporal distribution of fire in the Zuni Mountains based on change in vegetation types that are most prone to fire. Using Landsat imagery and historical fire spread data from 2001 to 2014, the following research questions were investigated: (1) What variables are responsible for fire spread in the Zuni Mountains, New Mexico? (2) Which areas are prone to destructive and canopy level fires? and (3) How have the fuel model types that are most conducive to fire spread changed in the past twenty years? The utilization of spatial modeling and remote sensing to understand the interaction of meteorological variables and vegetation in predicting fire spread in this region is a novel approach. This study showed that (i) fires are more likely to occur in the valleys and high elevation grassland areas of the Zuni Mountains, (ii) certain vegetation types including grass and shrub lands in the area present a greater danger to canopy fire than others, and (iii) that these vegetation types have changed in the past sixteen years.

THE DISTRIBUTION OF ROUNDS FIRED IN STOCHASTIC DUELS

DTIC Science & Technology

This paper continues the development of the theory of Stochastic Duels to include the distribution of the number of rounds fired. Most generally...the duel between two contestants who fire at each other with constant kill probabilities per round is considered. The time between rounds fired may be...at the beginning of the duel may be limited and is a discrete random variable. Besides the distribution of rounds fired, its first two moments and

Seasonal distribution of African savanna fires

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cahoon, Donald R., Jr.; Stocks, Brian J.; Levine, Joel S.; Cofer, Wesley R., III; O'Neill, Katherine P.

1992-01-01

The temporal and spatial distribution of savanna fires over the entire African continent, as determined from nighttime satellite imagery, is described. It is found that, contrary to expectations, most fires are left to burn uncontrolled, so that there is no strong diurnal cycle in the fire frequency. The knowledge gained from this study regarding the distribution and variability of fires is helpful in the monitoring of climatically important trace gases emitted from burning biomass.

Are High-Severity Fires Burning at Much Higher Rates Recently than Historically in Dry-Forest Landscapes of the Western USA?

PubMed

Baker, William L

2015-01-01

Dry forests at low elevations in temperate-zone mountains are commonly hypothesized to be at risk of exceptional rates of severe fire from climatic change and land-use effects. Their setting is fire-prone, they have been altered by land-uses, and fire severity may be increasing. However, where fires were excluded, increased fire could also be hypothesized as restorative of historical fire. These competing hypotheses are not well tested, as reference data prior to widespread land-use expansion were insufficient. Moreover, fire-climate projections were lacking for these forests. Here, I used new reference data and records of high-severity fire from 1984-2012 across all dry forests (25.5 million ha) of the western USA to test these hypotheses. I also approximated projected effects of climatic change on high-severity fire in dry forests by applying existing projections. This analysis showed the rate of recent high-severity fire in dry forests is within the range of historical rates, or is too low, overall across dry forests and individually in 42 of 43 analysis regions. Significant upward trends were lacking overall from 1984-2012 for area burned and fraction burned at high severity. Upward trends in area burned at high severity were found in only 4 of 43 analysis regions. Projections for A.D. 2046-2065 showed high-severity fire would generally be still operating at, or have been restored to historical rates, although high projections suggest high-severity fire rotations that are too short could ensue in 6 of 43 regions. Programs to generally reduce fire severity in dry forests are not supported and have significant adverse ecological impacts, including reducing habitat for native species dependent on early-successional burned patches and decreasing landscape heterogeneity that confers resilience to climatic change. Some adverse ecological effects of high-severity fires are concerns. Managers and communities can improve our ability to live with high-severity fire in dry forests.

Finding simplicity in complexity: modelling post-fire hydrogeomorphic processes and risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheridan, Gary; Langhans, Christoph; Lane, Patrick; Nyman, Petter

2017-04-01

Post-fire runoff and erosion can shape landscapes, destroy infrastructure, and result in the loss of human life. However even within seemingly similar geographic regions post-fire hydro-geomorphic responses vary from almost no response through to catastrophic flash floods and debris flows. Why is there so much variability, and how can we predict areas at risk? This presentation describes the research journey taken by the post-fire research group at The University of Melbourne to answer this question for the se Australian uplands. Key steps along the way have included identifying the dominant erosion processes (and their forcings), and the key system properties controlling the rates of these dominant processes. The high degree of complexity in the interactions between the forcings, the system properties, and the erosion processes, necessitated the development of a simplified conceptual representation of post-fire hydrogeomorphic system that was conducive to modelling and simulation. Spatially mappable metrics (and proxies) for key system forcings and properties were then required to parameterize and drive the model. Each step in this journey has depended on new research, as well as ongoing feedback from land and water management agencies tasked with implementing these risk models and interpreting the results. These models are now imbedded within agencies and used for strategic risk assessments, for tactical response during fires, and for post-fire remediation and risk planning. Reflecting on the successes and failures along the way provides for some more general insights into the process of developing research-based models for operational use by land and water management agencies.

Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Landscape Evolution, Fire, and Hydrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheppard, B. S.; O Connor, C.; Falk, D. A.; Garfin, G. M.

2015-12-01

Landscape disturbances such as wildfire interact with climate variability to influence hydrologic regimes. We coupled landscape, fire, and hydrologic models and forced them using projected climate to demonstrate climate change impacts anticipated at Fort Huachuca in southeastern Arizona, USA. The US Department of Defense (DoD) recognizes climate change as a trend that has implications for military installations, national security and global instability. The goal of this DoD Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP) project (RC-2232) is to provide decision making tools for military installations in the southwestern US to help them adapt to the operational realities associated with climate change. For this study we coupled the spatially explicit fire and vegetation dynamics model FireBGCv2 with the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment tool (AGWA) to evaluate landscape vegetation change, fire disturbance, and surface runoff in response to projected climate forcing. A projected climate stream for the years 2005-2055 was developed from the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) 4 km statistical downscaling of the CanESM2 GCM using Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. AGWA, an ArcGIS add-in tool, was used to automate the parameterization and execution of the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the KINematic runoff and EROSion2 (KINEROS2) models based on GIS layers. Landscape raster data generated by FireBGCv2 project an increase in fire and drought associated tree mortality and a decrease in vegetative basal area over the years of simulation. Preliminary results from SWAT modeling efforts show an increase to surface runoff during years following a fire, and for future winter rainy seasons. Initial results from KINEROS2 model runs show that peak runoff rates are expected to increase 10-100 fold as a result of intense rainfall falling on burned areas.

A systematic approach to selecting task relevant neurons.

PubMed

Kahn, Kevin; Saxena, Shreya; Eskandar, Emad; Thakor, Nitish; Schieber, Marc; Gale, John T; Averbeck, Bruno; Eden, Uri; Sarma, Sridevi V

2015-04-30

Since task related neurons cannot be specifically targeted during surgery, a critical decision to make is to select which neurons are task-related when performing data analysis. Including neurons unrelated to the task degrade decoding accuracy and confound neurophysiological results. Traditionally, task-related neurons are selected as those with significant changes in firing rate when a stimulus is applied. However, this assumes that neurons' encoding of stimuli are dominated by their firing rate with little regard to temporal dynamics. This paper proposes a systematic approach for neuron selection, which uses a likelihood ratio test to capture the contribution of stimulus to spiking activity while taking into account task-irrelevant intrinsic dynamics that affect firing rates. This approach is denoted as the model deterioration excluding stimulus (MDES) test. MDES is compared to firing rate selection in four case studies: a simulation, a decoding example, and two neurophysiology examples. The MDES rankings in the simulation match closely with ideal rankings, while firing rate rankings are skewed by task-irrelevant parameters. For decoding, 95% accuracy is achieved using the top 8 MDES-ranked neurons, while the top 12 firing-rate ranked neurons are needed. In the neurophysiological examples, MDES matches published results when firing rates do encode salient stimulus information, and uncovers oscillatory modulations in task-related neurons that are not captured when neurons are selected using firing rates. These case studies illustrate the importance of accounting for intrinsic dynamics when selecting task-related neurons and following the MDES approach accomplishes that. MDES selects neurons that encode task-related information irrespective of these intrinsic dynamics which can bias firing rate based selection. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Disturbances of motor unit rate modulation are prevalent in muscles of spastic-paretic stroke survivors

PubMed Central

Heckman, C. J.; Powers, R. K.; Rymer, W. Z.; Suresh, N. L.

2014-01-01

Stroke survivors often exhibit abnormally low motor unit firing rates during voluntary muscle activation. Our purpose was to assess the prevalence of saturation in motor unit firing rates in the spastic-paretic biceps brachii muscle of stroke survivors. To achieve this objective, we recorded the incidence and duration of impaired lower- and higher-threshold motor unit firing rate modulation in spastic-paretic, contralateral, and healthy control muscle during increases in isometric force generated by the elbow flexor muscles. Impaired firing was considered to have occurred when firing rate became constant (i.e., saturated), despite increasing force. The duration of impaired firing rate modulation in the lower-threshold unit was longer for spastic-paretic (3.9 ± 2.2 s) than for contralateral (1.4 ± 0.9 s; P < 0.001) and control (1.1 ± 1.0 s; P = 0.005) muscles. The duration of impaired firing rate modulation in the higher-threshold unit was also longer for the spastic-paretic (1.7 ± 1.6 s) than contralateral (0.3 ± 0.3 s; P = 0.007) and control (0.1 ± 0.2 s; P = 0.009) muscles. This impaired firing rate of the lower-threshold unit arose, despite an increase in the overall descending command, as shown by the recruitment of the higher-threshold unit during the time that the lower-threshold unit was saturating, and by the continuous increase in averages of the rectified EMG of the biceps brachii muscle throughout the rising phase of the contraction. These results suggest that impairments in firing rate modulation are prevalent in motor units of spastic-paretic muscle, even when the overall descending command to the muscle is increasing. PMID:24572092

Effectiveness of post-fire seeding at the Fitzner-Eberhardt Arid Land Ecology Reserve, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wirth, Troy A.; Pyke, David A.

2011-01-01

In August 2007, the Milepost 17 and Wautoma fires burned a combined total of 77,349 acres (31,302 hectares) of the Fitzner-Eberhardt Arid Land Ecology Reserve (ALE), part of the Hanford Reach National Monument administered by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) Mid-Columbia National Wildlife Refuge. In 2009, the USFWS implemented a series of seeding and herbicide treatments to mitigate potential negative consequences of these fires, including mortality of native vegetation, invasion of Bromus tectorum (cheatgrass), and soil erosion. Treatments included combinations of seeding (drill and aerial), herbicides, and one of six different mixtures of species. Artemisia tridentata ssp. wyomingensis (Wyoming big sagebrush) also was planted by hand in a small area in the southern end of the fire perimeter. Due to differences in plant communities prior to the fire and the multiple treatments applied, treatments were grouped into five treatment associations including mid-elevation aerial seedings, low-elevation aerial seedings, low-elevation drill seedings, high-elevation drill seeding, and no seeding treatments. Data collected at the mid-elevation aerial seedings indicate that the seeding did not appear to increase the density of seedlings compared to the non-seeded area in 2010. At the low-elevation aerial seedings, there were significantly more seedlings at seeded areas as compared to non-seeded areas. Low densities of existing perennial plants probably fostered a low-competition environment enabling seeds to germinate and emerge in 2010 during adequate moisture. Low-elevation drill seedings resulted in significant emergence of seeded grasses in 2009 and 2010 and forbs in 2010. This was likely due to adequate precipitation and that the drill seeding assured soil-to-seed contact. At the high-elevation drill seeding, which was implemented in 2009, there were a high number of seedlings in 2010. Transplanting of A. tridentata following the fires resulted in variable survival rates that warrant further testing; however, transplants located closer to washes tended to have the highest survival rates. Overall, the low-elevation aerial and drill seedings, and the high-elevation drill seedings resulted in significant numbers of seedlings. Further research is needed on methods that provide land managers with critical information about whether or not to seed post-fire areas including status of pre-fire vegetation and estimates of plant mortality due to fire.

Post-fire Vegetation Regeneration Dynamics to Topography and Burn Severity in two contrasting ecosystems: the Case of the Montane Cordillera Ecozones of Western Canada & that of a Typical Mediterranean site in Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ireland, Gareth; Petropoulos, George P.; Kalivas, Dionissios; Griffirths, Hywel M.; Louka, Panagiota

2015-04-01

Altering land cover dynamics is currently regarded as the single most important variable of global change affecting ecological systems. Wildfires are an integral part of many terrestrial ecosystems and are considered to dramatically affect land cover dynamics at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. In this context, knowledge of the spatio-temporal distribution of post-fire vegetation recovery dynamics is of key importance. In this study, we explore the relationships between vegetation recovery dynamics to topography and burn severity for two different ecosystems using a chronosequence of Landsat TM data images analysis. One of our experimental sites is the Okanagan Mountain Park, located in the Montane Cordillera Ecozones of western Canada at which a fire occurred in 2003. The other is Mt. Parnitha, located in Greece, representing a typical Mediterranean setting. The spatio-temporal patterns of regrowth for 8 years following the fire events were quantified based on the analysis of 2 widely used indices, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the Regeneration Index (RI). Burn severity was derived from the differenced Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR) index computed from the Landsat TM images. Topographical information for the studied area was obtained from the ASTER global operational product. Relationships of vegetation regrowth to both topography and burn severity was quantified using a series of additional statistical metrics. In overall, results indicated noticeable differences in the recovery rates of both ecosystems to the pre-fire patterns. Re-growth rates appeared to be somewhat higher in north-facing slopes in comparison to south facing ones for both experimental sites, in common with other similar studies in different ecosystems. Lastly, areas of lower burn severity exhibited a higher recovery rate compared to areas of high severity burns. Results are presented in detail and an explanation of the main observation trends is also attempted to be provided. To our knowledge, this study is one of the few attempting to explore the relationships between post-fire vegetation regrowth and topography or burn severity, particularly so in such a comparative and systematic manner between two contrasting ecosystem types. It corroborates the significance of EO technology as a successful and cost-effective solution in providing information related to post-fire regeneration assessment. Keywords: post-fire vegetation regeneration, topography, burn severity, Landsat, remote sensing, Cordillera Ecozones, Canada, Mt. Parnitha, Greece

Resistance is not futile: The response of hardwoods to fire-caused wounding

Treesearch

Elaine Kennedy Sutherland; Kevin Smith

2000-01-01

Fires wound trees; but not all of them, and not always. Specific fire behavior and differences among tree species and individual trees produce variable patterns of wounding and wound response. Our work focuses on the relationships between fire behavior and tree biology to better understand how hardwood trees resist injury to the lower stem and either survive or succumb...

Modeling tree-level fuel connectivity to evaluate the effectiveness of thinning treatments for reducing crown fire potential

Treesearch

Marco A. Contreras; Russell A. Parsons; Woodam Chung

2012-01-01

Land managers have been using fire behavior and simulation models to assist in several fire management tasks. These widely-used models use average attributes to make stand-level predictions without considering spatial variability of fuels within a stand. Consequently, as the existing models have limitations in adequately modeling crown fire initiation and propagation,...

Spatially and temporally variable fire regime on Rincon Peak, Arizona, USA

Treesearch

Jose M. Iniguez; Thomas W. Swetnam; Christopher H. Baisa

2009-01-01

Spatial and temporal patterns of fire history are affected by factors such as topography, vegetation, and climate. It is unclear, however, how these factors influenced fire history patterns in small isolated forests, such as that found on Rincon Peak, a "sky island" mountain range in southern Arizona, USA. We reconstructed the fire history of Rincon Peak to...

Climatic variability of a fire-weather index based on turbulent kinetic energy and the Haines Index

Treesearch

Warren E. Heilman; Xindi Bian

2010-01-01

Combining the Haines Index (HI) with near-surface turbulent kinetic energy (TKEs) through a product of the two values (HITKEs) has shown promise as an indicator of the atmospheric potential for extreme and erratic fire behavior in the U.S. Numerical simulations of fire-weather evolution during past wildland fire episodes in...

In Situ Tropical Peatland Fire Emission Factors and Their Variability, as Determined by Field Measurements in Peninsula Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, T. E. L.; Evers, S.; Yule, C. M.; Gan, J. Y.

2018-01-01

Fires in tropical peatlands account for >25% of estimated total greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation and degradation. Despite significant global and regional impacts, our understanding of specific gaseous fire emission factors (EFs) from tropical peat burning is limited to a handful of studies. Furthermore, there is substantial variability in EFs between sampled fires and/or studies. For example, methane EFs vary by 91% between studies. Here we present new fire EFs for the tropical peatland ecosystem; the first EFs measured for Malaysian peatlands, and only the second comprehensive study of EFs in this crucial environment. During August 2015 (under El Niño conditions) and July 2016, we embarked on field campaigns to measure gaseous emissions at multiple peatland fires burning on deforested land in Southeast Pahang (2015) and oil palm plantations in North Selangor (2016), Peninsula Malaysia. Gaseous emissions were measured using open-path Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy. The IR spectra were used to retrieve mole fractions of 12 different gases present within the smoke (including carbon dioxide and methane), and these measurements used to calculate EFs. Peat samples were taken at each burn site for physicochemical analysis and to explore possible relationships between specific physicochemical properties and fire EFs. Here we present the first evidence to indicate that substrate bulk density affects methane fire EFs reported here. This novel explanation of interplume, within-biome variability, should be considered by those undertaking greenhouse gas accounting and haze forecasting in this region and is of importance to peatland management, particularly with respect to artificial compaction.

Regional constraints to biological nitrogen fixation in post-fire forest communities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yelenik, Stephanie; Perakis, Steven S.; Hibbs, David

2013-01-01

Biological nitrogen fixation (BNF) is a key ecological process that can restore nitrogen (N) lost in wildfire and shape the pace and pattern of post-fire forest recovery. To date, there is limited information on how climate and soil fertility interact to influence different pathways of BNF in early forest succession. We studied asymbiotic (forest floor and soil) and symbiotic (the shrub Ceanothus integerrimus) BNF rates across six sites in the Klamath National Forest, California, USA. We used combined gradient and experimental phosphorus (P) fertilization studies to explore cross-site variation in BNF rates and then related these rates to abiotic and biotic variables. We estimate that our measured BNF rates 22 years after wildfire (6.1–12.1 kg N·ha-1·yr-1) are unlikely to fully replace wildfire N losses. We found that asymbiotic BNF is P limited, although this is not the case for symbiotic BNF in Ceanothus. In contrast, Ceanothus BNF is largely driven by competition from other vegetation: in high-productivity sites with high potential evapotranspiration (Et), shrub biomass is suppressed as tree biomass increases. Because shrub biomass governed cross-site variation in Ceanothus BNF, this competitive interaction led to lower BNF in sites with high productivity and Et. Overall, these results suggest that the effects of nutrients play a larger role in driving asymbiotic than symbiotic fixation across our post-fire sites. However, because symbiotic BNF is 8–90x greater than asymbiotic BNF, it is interspecific plant competition that governs overall BNF inputs in these forests.

An overview of GOES-8 diurnal fire and smoke results for SCAR-B and 1995 fire season in South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prins, Elaine M.; Feltz, Joleen M.; Menzel, W. Paul; Ward, Darold E.

1998-12-01

The launch of the eighth Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-8) in 1994 introduced an improved capability for diurnal fire and smoke monitoring throughout the western hemisphere. In South America the GOES-8 automated biomass burning algorithm (ABBA) and the automated smoke/aerosol detection algorithm (ASADA) are being used to monitor biomass burning. This paper outlines GOES-8 ABBA and ASADA development activities and summarizes results for the Smoke, Clouds, and Radiation in Brazil (SCAR-B) experiment and the 1995 fire season. GOES-8 ABBA results document the diurnal, spatial, and seasonal variability in fire activity throughout South America. A validation exercise compares GOES-8 ABBA results with ground truth measurements for two SCAR-B prescribed burns. GOES-8 ASADA aerosol coverage and derived albedo results provide an overview of the extent of daily and seasonal smoke coverage and relative intensities. Day-to-day variability in smoke extent closely tracks fluctuations in fire activity.

Climate Change Amplifications of Climate-Fire Teleconnections in the Southern Hemisphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mariani, Michela; Holz, Andrés.; Veblen, Thomas T.; Williamson, Grant; Fletcher, Michael-Shawn; Bowman, David M. J. S.

2018-05-01

Recent changes in trend and variability of the main Southern Hemisphere climate modes are driven by a variety of factors, including increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases, changes in tropical sea surface temperature, and stratospheric ozone depletion and recovery. One of the most important implications for climatic change is its effect via climate teleconnections on natural ecosystems, water security, and fire variability in proximity to populated areas, thus threatening human lives and properties. Only sparse and fragmentary knowledge of relationships between teleconnections, lightning strikes, and fire is available during the observed record within the Southern Hemisphere. This constitutes a major knowledge gap for undertaking suitable management and conservation plans. Our analysis of documentary fire records from Mediterranean and temperate regions across the Southern Hemisphere reveals a critical increased strength of climate-fire teleconnections during the onset of the 21st century including a tight coupling between lightning-ignited fire occurrences, the upward trend in the Southern Annular Mode, and rising temperatures across the Southern Hemisphere.

Mapping burned areas and burn severity patterns across the Mediterranean region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalogeropoulos, Christos; Amatulli, Giuseppe; Kempeneers, Pieter; Sedano, Fernando; San Miguel-Ayanz, Jesus; Camia, Andrea

2010-05-01

The Mediterranean region is highly susceptible to wildfires. On average, about 60,000 fires take place in this region every year, burning on average half a million hectares of forests and natural vegetation. Wildfires cause environmental degradation and affect the lives of thousands of people in the region. In order to minimize the consequences of these catastrophic events, fire managers and national authorities need to have in their disposal accurate and updated spatial information concerning the size of the burned area as well as the burn severity patterns. Mapping burned areas and burn severity patterns is necessary to effectively support the decision-making process in what concerns strategic (long-term) planning with the definition of post-fire actions at European and national scales. Although a comprehensive archive of burnt areas exists at the European Forest Fire Information System, the analysis of the severity of the areas affected by forest fires in the region is not yet available. Fire severity is influenced by many variables, including fuel type, topography and meteorological conditions before and during the fire. The analysis of fire severity is essential to determine the socio-economic impact of forest fires, to assess fire impacts, and to determine the need of post-fire rehabilitation measures. Moreover, fire severity is linked to forest fire emissions and determines the rate of recovery of the vegetation after the fire. Satellite imagery can give important insights about the conditions of the live fuel moisture content and can be used to assess changes on vegetation structure and vitality after forest fires. Fire events occurred in Greece, Portugal and Spain during the fire season of 2009 were recorded and analyzed in a GIS environment. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) and the Normalized Burn Ratio (NBR) were calculated from 8-days composites MODIS/TERRA imagery from March to October 2009. In addition, subtracting a post-fire from a pre-fire image derived index produces a measure of absolute change of the vegetation condition, like the differenced Normalized Burn Ratio index (dNBR). The aim of this study was the assessment of fire severity across diverse ecological and environmental conditions in the Mediterranean region. The specific objectives were: • The analysis of the correlation between the fire severity and local site conditions, including topography, fuel type, land use, land cover. • The analysis of the correlation between fire severity and fire danger conditions during the fire, as estimated by the European Forest Fire Information System. • Assessing the performance of several vegetation indices derived from MODIS imagery in estimating fire severity. • Assessing the permanence of the burnt signal for large fires as an estimate of fire severity.

Do Wildfires Promote Woody Species Invasion in a Fire-Adapted Ecosystem? Post-fire Resprouting of Native and Non-native Woody Plants in Central Argentina.

PubMed

Herrero, M Lucrecia; Torres, Romina C; Renison, Daniel

2016-02-01

We asked whether prescribed fire could be a useful management tool to reduce invasion by non-native plants in an ecosystem where native plants are supposed to be adapted to fires. Specifically, we compare the post-fire resprouting response of native and non-native woody species in Chaco Serrano forest of central Argentina. The measurements were carried out in five burnt areas where we selected ten native and seven non-native species. Our response variables were (1) post-fire survival, (2) types of resprouts, and (3) the growth of the resprouts. Our main results show that one year after the fire, survivals of native and non-native species were 0.84 and 0.89, respectively, with variances in survival seven times smaller in the native species group. Type of resprout was also less variable in native species, while growth of the resprouts was similar in native and non-native groups. We interpret that in most cases, the burning a forest with mixed native and non-native plants through prescribed fires will not differentially stop the invasion by non-native woody species even in ecosystems which are presumed to be relatively resistant to fires such as our study area.

Experimental research on the infrared gas fire detection system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Yalong; Liu, Yangyang

2018-02-01

Open fires and smoldering fires were differentiated using five experiments: wood pyrolysis, polyurethane smoldering, wood fire, polyurethane fire and cotton rope smoldering. At the same time, the distribution of CO2 and CO concentration in combustion products at different heights was studied. Real fire and environmental interference were distinguished using burning cigarettes and sandalwood. The results showed that open fires and smoldering fires produced significantly different ratios of CO2 and CO concentrations. By judging the order of magnitudes of the ratio CO2 and CO concentrations in the combustion products, open fire and smoldering fire could be effectively distinguished. At the same time, the comparison experiment showed that the rate of increase of the concentration of CO in the smoldering fire was higher than that under non-fire conditions. With the criterion of the rate of increase of CO concentration, smoldering fire and non-fire could be distinguished.

Relating fuel loads to overstorey structure and composition in a fire-excluded Sierra Nevada mixed conifer forest

Treesearch

Jamie M. Lydersen; Brandon M. Collins; Eric E. Knapp; Gary B. Roller; Scott Stephens

2015-01-01

Although knowledge of surface fuel loads is critical for evaluating potential fire behaviour and effects, their inherent variability makes these difficult to quantify. Several studies relate fuel loads to vegetation type, topography and spectral imaging, but little work has been done examining relationships between forest overstorey variables and surface fuel...

78. PHOTO OF A PROJECTILE FIRING USING A SABOT TAKEN ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

78. PHOTO OF A PROJECTILE FIRING USING A SABOT TAKEN WITH A 70 MM MITCHEL MOTION PICTURE CAMERA, Date unknown, circa 1950. (Original photograph in possession of Dave Willis, San Diego, California.) Photograph represents central frame of negative. - Variable Angle Launcher Complex, Variable Angle Launcher, CA State Highway 39 at Morris Reservior, Azusa, Los Angeles County, CA

Climatic and anthropogenic drivers of northern Amazon fires during the 2015-2016 El Niño event.

PubMed

Fonseca, Marisa G; Anderson, Liana O; Arai, Egidio; Shimabukuro, Yosio E; Xaud, Haron A M; Xaud, Maristela R; Madani, Nima; Wagner, Fabien H; Aragão, Luiz E O C

2017-12-01

The strong El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event that occurred in 2015-2016 caused extreme drought in the northern Brazilian Amazon, especially in the state of Roraima, increasing fire occurrence. Here we map the extent of precipitation and fire anomalies and quantify the effects of climatic and anthropogenic drivers on fire occurrence during the 2015-2016 dry season (from December 2015 to March 2016) in the state of Roraima. To achieve these objectives we first estimated the spatial pattern of precipitation anomalies, based on long-term data from the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission), and the fire anomaly, based on MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) active fire detections during the referred period. Then, we integrated climatic and anthropogenic drivers in a Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model to quantify fire probability, assessing (1) the model accuracy during the 2015-2016 and the 2016-2017 dry seasons; (2) the relative importance of each predictor variable on the model predictive performance; and (3) the response curves, showing how each environmental variable affects the fire probability. Approximately 59% (132,900 km 2 ) of the study area was exposed to precipitation anomalies ≤-1 standard deviation (SD) in January and ~48% (~106,800 km 2 ) in March. About 38% (86,200 km 2 ) of the study area experienced fire anomalies ≥1 SD in at least one month between December 2015 and March 2016. The distance to roads and the direct ENSO effect on fire occurrence were the two most influential variables on model predictive performance. Despite the improvement of governmental actions of fire prevention and firefighting in Roraima since the last intense ENSO event (1997-1998), we show that fire still gets out of control in the state during extreme drought events. Our results indicate that if no prevention actions are undertaken, future road network expansion and a climate-induced increase in water stress will amplify fire occurrence in the northern Amazon, even in its humid dense forests. As an additional outcome of our analysis, we conclude that the model and the data we used may help to guide on-the-ground fire-prevention actions and firefighting planning and therefore minimize fire-related ecosystems degradation, economic losses and carbon emissions in Roraima. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Modeling topographic influences on fuel moisture and fire danger in complex terrain to improve wildland fire management decision support

Treesearch

Zachary A. Holden; W. Matt Jolly

2011-01-01

Fire danger rating systems commonly ignore fine scale, topographically-induced weather variations. These variations will likely create heterogeneous, landscape-scale fire danger conditions that have never been examined in detail. We modeled the evolution of fuel moistures and the Energy Release Component (ERC) from the US National Fire Danger Rating System across the...

Rates of initial spread of free-burning fires on the National Forests of California

Treesearch

C.A. Abell

1940-01-01

As early as 1914 Coert DuBois and his staff recognized that knowledge of the rates which fires spread was essential to sound fire control planning, strategy, and tactics, and therefore designed the fire report form so that such data might be accumulated. Although the individual fire report form has changed appreciably since that time, the supply of data has grown...

Control effects of stimulus paradigms on characteristic firings of parkinsonism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Honghui; Wang, Qingyun; Chen, Guanrong

2014-09-01

Experimental studies have shown that neuron population located in the basal ganglia of parkinsonian primates can exhibit characteristic firings with certain firing rates differing from normal brain activities. Motivated by recent experimental findings, we investigate the effects of various stimulation paradigms on the firing rates of parkinsonism based on the proposed dynamical models. Our results show that the closed-loop deep brain stimulation is superior in ameliorating the firing behaviors of the parkinsonism, and other control strategies have similar effects according to the observation of electrophysiological experiments. In addition, in conformity to physiological experiments, we found that there exists optimal delay of input in the closed-loop GPtrain|M1 paradigm, where more normal behaviors can be obtained. More interestingly, we observed that W-shaped curves of the firing rates always appear as stimulus delay varies. We furthermore verify the robustness of the obtained results by studying three pallidal discharge rates of the parkinsonism based on the conductance-based model, as well as the integrate-and-fire-or-burst model. Finally, we show that short-term plasticity can improve the firing rates and optimize the control effects on parkinsonism. Our conclusions may give more theoretical insight into Parkinson's disease studies.

Landscape fragmentation, severe drought, and the new Amazon forest fire regime.

PubMed

Alencar, Ane A; Brando, Paulo M; Asner, Gregory P; Putz, Francis E

2015-09-01

Changes in weather and land use are transforming the spatial and temporal characteristics of fire regimes in Amazonia, with important effects on the functioning of dense (i.e., closed-canopy), open-canopy, and transitional forests across the Basin. To quantify, document, and describe the characteristics and recent changes in forest fire regimes, we sampled 6 million ha of these three representative forests of the eastern and southern edges of the Amazon using 24 years (1983-2007) of satellite-derived annual forest fire scar maps and 16 years of monthly hot pixel information (1992-2007). Our results reveal that changes in forest fire regime properties differentially affected these three forest types in terms of area burned and fire scar size, frequency, and seasonality. During the study period, forest fires burned 15% (0.3 million ha), 44% (1 million ha), and 46% (0.6 million ha) of dense, open, and transitional forests, respectively. Total forest area burned and fire scar size tended to increase over time (even in years of average rainfall in open canopy and transitional forests). In dense forests, most of the temporal variability in fire regime properties was linked to El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related droughts. Compared with dense forests, transitional and open forests experienced fires twice as frequently, with at least 20% of these forests' areas burning two or more times during the 24-year study period. Open and transitional forests also experienced higher deforestation rates than dense forests. During drier years, the end of the dry season was delayed by about a month, which resulted in larger burn scars and increases in overall area burned later in the season. These observations suggest that climate-mediated forest flammability is enhanced by landscape fragmentation caused by deforestation, as observed for open and transitional forests in the Eastern portion of the Amazon Basin.

Incorporating anthropogenic influences into fire probability models: Effects of development and climate change on fire activity in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mann, M.; Moritz, M.; Batllori, E.; Waller, E.; Krawchuk, M.; Berck, P.

2014-12-01

The costly interactions between humans and natural fire regimes throughout California demonstrate the need to understand the uncertainties surrounding wildfire, especially in the face of a changing climate and expanding human communities. Although a number of statistical and process-based wildfire models exist for California, there is enormous uncertainty about the location and number of future fires. Models estimate an increase in fire occurrence between nine and fifty-three percent by the end of the century. Our goal is to assess the role of uncertainty in climate and anthropogenic influences on the state's fire regime from 2000-2050. We develop an empirical model that integrates novel information about the distribution and characteristics of future plant communities without assuming a particular distribution, and improve on previous efforts by integrating dynamic estimates of population density at each forecast time step. Historically, we find that anthropogenic influences account for up to fifty percent of the total fire count, and that further housing development will incite or suppress additional fires according to their intensity. We also find that the total area burned is likely to increase but at a slower than historical rate. Previous findings of substantially increased numbers of fires may be tied to the assumption of static fuel loadings, and the use of proxy variables not relevant to plant community distributions. We also find considerable agreement between GFDL and PCM model A2 runs, with decreasing fire counts expected only in areas of coastal influence below San Francisco and above Los Angeles. Due to potential shifts in rainfall patterns, substantial uncertainty remains for the semiarid deserts of the inland south. The broad shifts of wildfire between California's climatic regions forecast in this study point to dramatic shifts in the pressures plant and human communities will face by midcentury. The information provided by this study reduces the level of uncertainty surrounding the influence that natural and anthropogenic systems have on wildfire.

Experimental drought induces short-term changes in soil functionality and microbial community structure after fire in a Mediterranean shrubland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hinojosa, M. B.; Parra, A.; Laudicina, V. A.; Moreno, J. M.

2014-10-01

Fire is a major ecosystem driver, causing significant changes in soil nutrients and microbial community structure and functionality. Post-fire soil dynamics can vary depending on rainfall patterns, although variations in response to drought are poorly known. This is particularly important in areas with poor soils and limited rainfall, like arid and semiarid ones. Furthermore, climate change projections in many such areas anticipate reduced precipitation and longer drought, together with an increase in fire severity. The effects of experimental drought and fire were studied on soils in a Mediterranean Cistus-Erica shrubland in Central Spain. A replicated (n = 4) field experiment was carried out in which four levels of rainfall pattern were implemented by means of a rain-out shelters and irrigation system. The treatments were: environmental control (natural rainfall), historical control (long-term average rainfall, 2 months drought), moderate drought (25% reduction of historical control, 5 months drought) and severe drought (45% reduction, 7 months drought). After one growing season, the plots were burned with high fire intensity, except a set of unburned plots that served as control. Soils were collected seasonally during one year and variables related to soil nutrient availability and microbial community structure and functionality were studied. Burned soils increased nutrient availability (P, N, K) with respect to unburned ones, but drought reduced such an increase in P, while it further increased N and K. Such changes in available soil nutrients were short-lived. Drought caused a further decrease of enzyme activities, carbon mineralization rate and microbial biomass. Fire decreased the relative abundance of fungi and actinomycetes. However, fire and drought caused a further reduction in fungi, with bacteria becoming relatively more abundant. Arguably, increasing drought and fires due to climate change will likely shift soil recovery after fire.

Relationship between Climate Variability, Wildfire Risk, and Wildfire Occurrence in Wildland-Urban Interface of the Southwestern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kafatos, M.; Kim, S. H.; Jia, S.; Nghiem, S. V.

2017-12-01

As housing units in or near wildlands have grown, the wildland-urban interface (WUI) contain at present approximately one-third of all housing in the contiguous US. Wildfires are a part of the natural cycle in the Southwestern United States (SWUS) but the increasing trend of WUI has made wildfires a serious high-risk hazard. The expansion of WUI has elevated wildfire risks by increasing the chance of human caused ignitions and past fire suppression in the area. Previous studies on climate variability have shown that the SWUS region is prone to frequent droughts and has suffered from severe wildfires in the recent decade. Therefore, assessing the increased vulnerability to the wildfire in WUI is crucial for proactive adaptation under climate change. Our previous study has shown that a strong correlation between North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and temperature was found during March-June in the SWUS. The abnormally warm and dry spring conditions, combined with suppression of winter precipitation, can cause an early start of a fire season and high fire risk throughout the summer and fall. Therefore, it is crucial to investigate the connections between climate variability and wildfire danger characteristics. This study aims to identify climate variability using multiple climate indices such as NAO, El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation closely related with droughts in the SWUS region. Correlation between the variability and fire frequency and severity in WUI were examined. Also, we investigated climate variability and its relationship on local wildfire potential using both Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) and Fire Weather Index (FWI) which have been used to assessing wildfire potential in the U.S.A and Canada, respectively. We examined the long-term variability of the fire potential indices and relationships between the indices and historical occurrence in WUI using multi-decadal reanalysis data sets. Following our analysis, we investigated joint impacts of multiple climate indices on droughts and human activities in the WUI for regional wildfire potential.

SCAR-B fires in the tropics: Properties and remote sensing from EOS-MODIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaufman, Yoram J.; Kleidman, Richard G.; King, Michael D.

1998-12-01

Two moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments are planned for launch in 1999 and 2000 on the NASA Earth Observing System (EOS) AM-1 and EOS PM-1 satellites. The MODIS instrument will sense fires with designated 3.9 and 11 μm channels that saturate at high temperatures (450 and 400 K, respectively). MODIS data will be used to detect fires, to estimate the rate of emission of radiative energy from the fire, and to estimate the fraction of biomass burned in the smoldering phase. The rate of emission of radiative energy is a measure of the rate of combustion of biomass in the fires. In the Smoke, Clouds, and Radiation-Brazil (SCAR-B) experiment the NASA ER-2 aircraft flew the MODIS airborne simulator (MAS) to measure the fire thermal and mid-IR signature with a 50 m spatial resolution. These data are used to observe the thermal properties and sizes of fires in the cerrado grassland and Amazon forests of Brazil and to simulate the performance of the MODIS 1 km resolution fire observations. Although some fires saturated the MAS 3.9 μm channel, all the fires were well within the MODIS instrument saturation levels. Analysis of MAS data over different ecosystems, shows that the fire size varied from single MAS pixels (50×50 m) to over 1 km2. The 1×1 km resolution MODIS instrument can observe only 30-40% of these fires, but the observed fires are responsible for 80 to nearly 100% of the emitted radiative energy and therefore for 80 to 100% of the rate of biomass burning in the region. The rate of emission of radiative energy from the fires correlated very well with the formation of fire burn scars (correlation coefficient = 0.97). This new remotely sensed quantity should be useful in regional estimates of biomass consumption.

A sEMG model with experimentally based simulation parameters.

PubMed

Wheeler, Katherine A; Shimada, Hiroshima; Kumar, Dinesh K; Arjunan, Sridhar P

2010-01-01

A differential, time-invariant, surface electromyogram (sEMG) model has been implemented. While it is based on existing EMG models, the novelty of this implementation is that it assigns more accurate distributions of variables to create realistic motor unit (MU) characteristics. Variables such as muscle fibre conduction velocity, jitter (the change in the interpulse interval between subsequent action potential firings) and motor unit size have been considered to follow normal distributions about an experimentally obtained mean. In addition, motor unit firing frequencies have been considered to have non-linear and type based distributions that are in accordance with experimental results. Motor unit recruitment thresholds have been considered to be related to the MU type. The model has been used to simulate single channel differential sEMG signals from voluntary, isometric contractions of the biceps brachii muscle. The model has been experimentally verified by conducting experiments on three subjects. Comparison between simulated signals and experimental recordings shows that the Root Mean Square (RMS) increases linearly with force in both cases. The simulated signals also show similar values and rates of change of RMS to the experimental signals.

Importance of the cutoff value in the quadratic adaptive integrate-and-fire model.

PubMed

Touboul, Jonathan

2009-08-01

The quadratic adaptive integrate-and-fire model (Izhikevich, 2003 , 2007 ) is able to reproduce various firing patterns of cortical neurons and is widely used in large-scale simulations of neural networks. This model describes the dynamics of the membrane potential by a differential equation that is quadratic in the voltage, coupled to a second equation for adaptation. Integration is stopped during the rise phase of a spike at a voltage cutoff value V(c) or when it blows up. Subsequently the membrane potential is reset, and the adaptation variable is increased by a fixed amount. We show in this note that in the absence of a cutoff value, not only the voltage but also the adaptation variable diverges in finite time during spike generation in the quadratic model. The divergence of the adaptation variable makes the system very sensitive to the cutoff: changing V(c) can dramatically alter the spike patterns. Furthermore, from a computational viewpoint, the divergence of the adaptation variable implies that the time steps for numerical simulation need to be small and adaptive. However, divergence of the adaptation variable does not occur for the quartic model (Touboul, 2008 ) and the adaptive exponential integrate-and-fire model (Brette & Gerstner, 2005 ). Hence, these models are robust to changes in the cutoff value.

Applications of Principled Search Methods in Climate Influences and Mechanisms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Glymour, Clark

2005-01-01

Forest and grass fires cause economic losses in the billions of dollars in the U.S. alone. In addition, boreal forests constitute a large carbon store; it has been estimated that, were no burning to occur, an additional 7 gigatons of carbon would be sequestered in boreal soils each century. Effective wildfire suppression requires anticipation of locales and times for which wildfire is most probable, preferably with a two to four week forecast, so that limited resources can be efficiently deployed. The United States Forest Service (USFS), and other experts and agencies have developed several measures of fire risk combining physical principles and expert judgment, and have used them in automated procedures for forecasting fire risk. Forecasting accuracies for some fire risk indices in combination with climate and other variables have been estimated for specific locations, with the value of fire risk index variables assessed by their statistical significance in regressions. In other cases, the MAPSS forecasts [23, 241 for example, forecasting accuracy has been estimated only by simulated data. We describe alternative forecasting methods that predict fire probability by locale and time using statistical or machine learning procedures trained on historical data, and we give comparative assessments of their forecasting accuracy for one fire season year, April- October, 2003, for all U.S. Forest Service lands. Aside from providing an accuracy baseline for other forecasting methods, the results illustrate the interdependence between the statistical significance of prediction variables and the forecasting method used.

Factors affecting plant diversity during post-fire recovery and succession of mediterranean-climate shrublands in California, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Keeley, J.E.; Fotheringham, C.J.; Baer-Keeley, M.

2005-01-01

Plant community diversity, measured as species richness, is typically highest in the early post-fire years in California shrublands. However, this generalization is overly simplistic and the present study demonstrates that diversity is determined by a complex of temporal and spatial effects. Ninety sites distributed across southern California were studied for 5 years after a series of fires. Characteristics of the disturbance event, in this case fire severity, can alter post-fire diversity, both decreasing and increasing diversity, depending on life form. Spatial variability in resource availability is an important factor explaining patterns of diversity, and there is a complex interaction between landscape features and life form. Temporal variability in resource availability affects diversity, and the diversity peak in the immediate post-fire year (or two) appears to be driven by factors different from subsequent diversity peaks. Early post-fire diversity is influenced by life-history specialization, illustrated by species that spend the bulk of their life cycle as a dormant seed bank, which is then triggered to germinate by fire. Resource fluctuations, precipitation in particular, may be associated with subsequent post-fire diversity peaks. These later peaks in diversity comprise a flora that is compositionally different from the immediate post-fire flora, and their presence may be due to mass effects from population expansion of local populations in adjacent burned areas. ?? 2005 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Fire flame detection based on GICA and target tracking

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rong, Jianzhong; Zhou, Dechuang; Yao, Wei; Gao, Wei; Chen, Juan; Wang, Jian

2013-04-01

To improve the video fire detection rate, a robust fire detection algorithm based on the color, motion and pattern characteristics of fire targets was proposed, which proved a satisfactory fire detection rate for different fire scenes. In this fire detection algorithm: (a) a rule-based generic color model was developed based on analysis on a large quantity of flame pixels; (b) from the traditional GICA (Geometrical Independent Component Analysis) model, a Cumulative Geometrical Independent Component Analysis (C-GICA) model was developed for motion detection without static background and (c) a BP neural network fire recognition model based on multi-features of the fire pattern was developed. Fire detection tests on benchmark fire video clips of different scenes have shown the robustness, accuracy and fast-response of the algorithm.

Measuring wildland fire fighter performance with wearable technology.

PubMed

Parker, Richard; Vitalis, Antonios; Walker, Robyn; Riley, David; Pearce, H Grant

2017-03-01

Wildland (rural) fire fighting is a physically demanding and hazardous occupation. An observational study was conducted to explore the use of new technologies for the field study of fire fighters at wildfires and to understand the work pressures of wildland fire fighting. The research was carried out with two fire fighters at real fires wearing microphones, miniature video cameras, heart rate monitors and GPS units to record their actions and location at wildfire events. The fire fighters were exposed to high physiological workloads (heart rates of up to 180 beats per minute) and walked considerable distances at the fires. Results from this study have been used in presentations to fire fighters and non-operational fire personnel to understand the pressures fire fighters are under and how others complete the fire fighting tasks. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using BEHAVEPlus for predicting fire behavior in southern Appalachian hardwood stands subjected to fuel reduction treatments

Treesearch

Helen H. Mohr; Thomas A. Waldrop; Dean M. Simon

2010-01-01

There is a crucial need for fuel reduction in United States forests due to decades of fuel accumulation resulting from fire exclusion. The National Fire and Fire Surrogate Study (FFS) addresses this issue by examining the effects of three fuel reduction treatments on numerous response variables. At an FFS site in the southern Appalachian Mountains, fuels were altered...

Tree regeneration spatial patterns in ponderosa pine forests following stand-replacing fire: Influence of topography and neighbors

Treesearch

Justin P. Ziegler; Chad M. Hoffman; Paula J. Fornwalt; Carolyn H. Sieg; Michael A. Battaglia; Marin E. Chambers; Jose M. Iniguez

2017-01-01

Shifting fire regimes alter forest structure assembly in ponderosa pine forests and may produce structural heterogeneity following stand-replacing fire due, in part, to fine-scale variability in growing environments. We mapped tree regeneration in eighteen plots 11 to 15 years after stand-replacing fire in Colorado and South Dakota, USA. We used point pattern analyses...

Dry forests and wildland fires of the inland Northwest USA: contrasting the landscape ecology of the pre-settlement and modern eras.

Treesearch

Paul F. Hessburg; James K. Agee; Jerry F. Franklin

2005-01-01

Prior to Euro-American settlement, dry ponderosa pine and mixed conifer forests (hereafter, the "dry forests") of the Inland Northwest were burned by frequent low- or mixed-severity fires. These mostly surface fires maintained low and variable tree densities, light and patchy ground fuels, simplified forest structure, and favored fire-tolerant trees, such as...

Investigating the relationship between bole scorch height and fire intensity variables in the ridge and valley physiographic province, West Virginia

Treesearch

Jonathan A. Pomp; David W. McGill; Thomas M. Schuler

2008-01-01

Prescribed fires are carried out on the George Washington National Forest (GWNF) in West Virginia to promote long-term resource and social values, including tree regeneration, improving wildlife habitat and aesthetics, and maintenance of low woody fuel loading. Prescribed fire programs have increased on the GWNF over the past 20 years. Although prescribed fire is...

The use of remotely-sensed wildland fire radiation to infer the fates of carbon during biomass combustion - the need to understand and quantify a fire's mass and energy budget

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dickinson, M. B.; Dietenberger, M.; Ellicott, E. A.; Hardy, C.; Hudak, A. T.; Kremens, R.; Mathews, W.; Schroeder, W.; Smith, A. M.; Strand, E. K.

2016-12-01

Few measurement techniques offer broad-scale insight on the extent and characteristics of biomass combustion during wildland fires. Remotely-sensed radiation is one of these techniques but its measurement suffers from several limitations and, when quantified, its use to derive variables of real interest depends on an understanding of the fire's mass and energy budget. In this talk, we will review certain assumptions of wildland fire radiation measurement and explore the use of those measurements to infer the fates of biomass and the dissipation of combustion energy. Recent measurements show that the perspective of the sensor (nadir vs oblique) matters relative to estimates of fire radiated power. Other considerations for producing accurate estimates of fire radiation from remote sensing include obscuration by an intervening forest canopy and to what extent measurements that are based on the assumption of graybody/blackbody behavior underestimate fire radiation. Fire radiation measurements are generally a means of quantifying other variables and are often not of interest in and of themselves. Use of fire radiation measurements as a means of inference currently relies on correlations with variables of interest such as biomass consumption and sensible and latent heat and emissions fluxes. Radiation is an imperfect basis for these correlations in that it accounts for a minority of combustion energy ( 15-30%) and is not a constant as is often assumed. Measurements suggest that fire convective energy accounts for the majority of combustion energy and (after radiation) is followed by latent energy, soil heating, and pyrolysis energy, more or less in that order. Combustion energy in and of itself is not its potential maximum, but is reduced to an effective heat of combustion by combustion inefficiency and by work done to pyrolyze fuel (important in char production) and in moisture vaporization. The effective heat of combustion is often on the order of 65% of its potential maximum. Through consideration of available data and modeling, we conclude that there is substantial scope to improve the science behind fire radiation measurements and the inferences derived from those measurements.

Litter and dead wood dynamics in ponderosa pine forests along a 160-year chronosequence.

PubMed

Hall, S A; Burke, I C; Hobbs, N T

2006-12-01

Disturbances such as fire play a key role in controlling ecosystem structure. In fire-prone forests, organic detritus comprises a large pool of carbon and can control the frequency and intensity of fire. The ponderosa pine forests of the Colorado Front Range, USA, where fire has been suppressed for a century, provide an ideal system for studying the long-term dynamics of detrital pools. Our objectives were (1) to quantify the long-term temporal dynamics of detrital pools; and (2) to determine to what extent present stand structure, topography, and soils constrain these dynamics. We collected data on downed dead wood, litter, duff (partially decomposed litter on the forest floor), stand structure, topographic position, and soils for 31 sites along a 160-year chronosequence. We developed a compartment model and parameterized it to describe the temporal trends in the detrital pools. We then developed four sets of statistical models, quantifying the hypothesized relationship between pool size and (1) stand structure, (2) topography, (3) soils variables, and (4) time since fire. We contrasted how much support each hypothesis had in the data using Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC). Time since fire explained 39-80% of the variability in dead wood of different size classes. Pool size increased to a peak as material killed by the fire fell, then decomposed rapidly to a minimum (61-85 years after fire for the different pools). It then increased, presumably as new detritus was produced by the regenerating stand. Litter was most strongly related to canopy cover (r2 = 77%), suggesting that litter fall, rather than decomposition, controls its dynamics. The temporal dynamics of duff were the hardest to predict. Detrital pool sizes were more strongly related to time since fire than to environmental variables. Woody debris peak-to-minimum time was 46-67 years, overlapping the range of historical fire return intervals (1 to > 100 years). Fires may therefore have burned under a wide range of fuel conditions, supporting the hypothesis that this region's fire regime was mixed severity.

An analysis of wildfire frequency and burned area relationships with human pressure and climate gradients in the context of fire regime

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiménez-Ruano, Adrián; Rodrigues Mimbrero, Marcos; de la Riva Fernández, Juan

2017-04-01

Understanding fire regime is a crucial step towards achieving a better knowledge of the wildfire phenomenon. This study proposes a method for the analysis of fire regime based on multidimensional scatterplots (MDS). MDS are a visual approach that allows direct comparison among several variables and fire regime features so that we are able to unravel spatial patterns and relationships within the region of analysis. Our analysis is conducted in Spain, one of the most fire-affected areas within the Mediterranean region. Specifically, the Spanish territory has been split into three regions - Northwest, Hinterland and Mediterranean - considered as representative fire regime zones according to MAGRAMA (Spanish Ministry of Agriculture, Environment and Food). The main goal is to identify key relationships between fire frequency and burnt area, two of the most common fire regime features, with socioeconomic activity and climate. In this way we will be able to better characterize fire activity within each fire region. Fire data along the period 1974-2010 was retrieved from the General Statistics Forest Fires database (EGIF). Specifically, fire frequency and burnt area size was examined for each region and fire season (summer and winter). Socioeconomic activity was defined in terms of human pressure on wildlands, i.e. the presence and intensity of anthropogenic activity near wildland or forest areas. Human pressure was built from GIS spatial information about land use (wildland-agriculture and wildland-urban interface) and demographic potential. Climate variables (average maximum temperature and annual precipitation) were extracted from MOTEDAS (Monthly Temperature Dataset of Spain) and MOPREDAS (Monthly Precipitation Dataset of Spain) datasets and later reclassified into ten categories. All these data were resampled to fit the 10x10 Km grid used as spatial reference for fire data. Climate and socioeconomic variables were then explored by means of MDS to find the extent to which fire frequency and burnt areas are controlled by either environmental, human, or both factors. Results reveal a noticeable link between fire frequency and human activity, especially in the Northwest area during winter. On the other hand, in the Hinterland and Mediterranean regions, human and climate factors 'work' together in terms of their relationship with fire activity, being the concurrence of high human pressure and favourable climate conditions the main driver. In turn, burned area shows a similar behaviour except in the Hinterland region, were fire-affected area depends mostly on climate factors. Overall, we can conclude that the visual analysis of multidimensional scatterplots has proved to be a powerful tool that facilitates characterization and investigation of fire regimes.

Fall rates of prescribed fire-killed ponderosa pine. Forest Service research paper

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Harrington, M.G.

1996-05-01

Fall rates of prescribed fire-killed ponderosa pine were evaluated relative to tree and fire damage characteristics. High crown scorch and short survival time after fire injury were factors leading to a high probability of early tree fall. The role of chemical defense mechanisms is discussed. Results apply to prescribed-fire injured, second-growth ponderosa pine less than 16 inches diameter at breast height.

Post-fire bedload sediment delivery across spatial scales in the interior western United States

Treesearch

Joseph W. Wagenbrenner; Peter R. Robichaud

2014-01-01

Post-fire sediment yields can be up to three orders of magnitude greater than sediment yields in unburned forests. Much of the research on post-fire erosion rates has been at small scales (100m2 or less), and post-fire sediment delivery rates across spatial scales have not been quantified in detail. We developed relationships for post-fire bedload sediment delivery...

Quantifying long-term changes in carbon stocks and forest structure from Amazon forest degradation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rappaport, Danielle I.; Morton, Douglas C.; Longo, Marcos; Keller, Michael; Dubayah, Ralph; Nara dos-Santos, Maiza

2018-06-01

Despite sustained declines in Amazon deforestation, forest degradation from logging and fire continues to threaten carbon stocks, habitat, and biodiversity in frontier forests along the Amazon arc of deforestation. Limited data on the magnitude of carbon losses and rates of carbon recovery following forest degradation have hindered carbon accounting efforts and contributed to incomplete national reporting to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+). We combined annual time series of Landsat imagery and high-density airborne lidar data to characterize the variability, magnitude, and persistence of Amazon forest degradation impacts on aboveground carbon density (ACD) and canopy structure. On average, degraded forests contained 45.1% of the carbon stocks in intact forests, and differences persisted even after 15 years of regrowth. In comparison to logging, understory fires resulted in the largest and longest-lasting differences in ACD. Heterogeneity in burned forest structure varied by fire severity and frequency. Forests with a history of one, two, and three or more fires retained only 54.4%, 25.2%, and 7.6% of intact ACD, respectively, when measured after a year of regrowth. Unlike the additive impact of successive fires, selective logging before burning did not explain additional variability in modeled ACD loss and recovery of burned forests. Airborne lidar also provides quantitative measures of habitat structure that can aid the estimation of co-benefits of avoided degradation. Notably, forest carbon stocks recovered faster than attributes of canopy structure that are critical for biodiversity in tropical forests, including the abundance of tall trees. We provide the first comprehensive look-up table of emissions factors for specific degradation pathways at standard reporting intervals in the Amazon. Estimated carbon loss and recovery trajectories provide an important foundation for assessing the long-term contributions from forest degradation to regional carbon cycling and advance our understanding of the current state of frontier forests.

Areas of Agreement and Disagreement Regarding Ponderosa Pine and Mixed Conifer Forest Fire Regimes: A Dialogue with Stevens et al.

PubMed Central

Odion, Dennis C.; Hanson, Chad T.; Baker, William L.; DellaSala, Dominick A.; Williams, Mark A.

2016-01-01

In a recent PLOS ONE paper, we conducted an evidence-based analysis of current versus historical fire regimes and concluded that traditionally defined reference conditions of low-severity fire regimes for ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) and mixed-conifer forests were incomplete, missing considerable variability in forest structure and fire regimes. Stevens et al. (this issue) agree that high-severity fire was a component of these forests, but disagree that one of the several sources of evidence, stand age from a large number of forest inventory and analysis (FIA) plots across the western USA, support our findings that severe fire played more than a minor role ecologically in these forests. Here we highlight areas of agreement and disagreement about past fire, and analyze the methods Stevens et al. used to assess the FIA stand-age data. We found a major problem with a calculation they used to conclude that the FIA data were not useful for evaluating fire regimes. Their calculation, as well as a narrowing of the definition of high-severity fire from the one we used, leads to a large underestimate of conditions consistent with historical high-severity fire. The FIA stand age data do have limitations but they are consistent with other landscape-inference data sources in supporting a broader paradigm about historical variability of fire in ponderosa and mixed-conifer forests than had been traditionally recognized, as described in our previous PLOS paper. PMID:27195808

Areas of Agreement and Disagreement Regarding Ponderosa Pine and Mixed Conifer Forest Fire Regimes: A Dialogue with Stevens et al.

PubMed

Odion, Dennis C; Hanson, Chad T; Baker, William L; DellaSala, Dominick A; Williams, Mark A

2016-01-01

In a recent PLOS ONE paper, we conducted an evidence-based analysis of current versus historical fire regimes and concluded that traditionally defined reference conditions of low-severity fire regimes for ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) and mixed-conifer forests were incomplete, missing considerable variability in forest structure and fire regimes. Stevens et al. (this issue) agree that high-severity fire was a component of these forests, but disagree that one of the several sources of evidence, stand age from a large number of forest inventory and analysis (FIA) plots across the western USA, support our findings that severe fire played more than a minor role ecologically in these forests. Here we highlight areas of agreement and disagreement about past fire, and analyze the methods Stevens et al. used to assess the FIA stand-age data. We found a major problem with a calculation they used to conclude that the FIA data were not useful for evaluating fire regimes. Their calculation, as well as a narrowing of the definition of high-severity fire from the one we used, leads to a large underestimate of conditions consistent with historical high-severity fire. The FIA stand age data do have limitations but they are consistent with other landscape-inference data sources in supporting a broader paradigm about historical variability of fire in ponderosa and mixed-conifer forests than had been traditionally recognized, as described in our previous PLOS paper.

Holocene fire occurrence and alluvial responses at the leading edge of pinyon–juniper migration in the Northern Great Basin, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Weppner, Kerrie N.; Pierce, Jennifer L.; Betancourt, Julio L.

2013-01-01

Fire and vegetation records at the City of Rocks National Reserve (CIRO), south-central Idaho, display the interaction of changing climate, fire and vegetation along the migrating front of single-leaf pinyon (Pinus monophylla) and Utah juniper (Juniperus osteosperma). Radiocarbon dating of alluvial charcoal reconstructed local fire occurrence and geomorphic response, and fossil woodrat (Neotoma) middens revealed pinyon and juniper arrivals. Fire peaks occurred ~ 10,700–9500, 7200–6700, 2400–2000, 850–700, and 550–400 cal yr BP, whereas ~ 9500–7200, 6700–4700 and ~ 1500–1000 cal yr BP are fire-free. Wetter climates and denser vegetation fueled episodic fires and debris flows during the early and late Holocene, whereas drier climates and reduced vegetation caused frequent sheetflooding during the mid-Holocene. Increased fires during the wetter and more variable late Holocene suggest variable climate and adequate fuels augment fires at CIRO. Utah juniper and single-leaf pinyon colonized CIRO by 3800 and 2800 cal yr BP, respectively, though pinyon did not expand broadly until ~ 700 cal yr BP. Increased fire-related deposition coincided with regional droughts and pinyon infilling ~ 850–700 and 550–400 cal yr BP. Early and late Holocene vegetation change probably played a major role in accelerated fire activity, which may be sustained into the future due to pinyon–juniper densification and cheatgrass invasion.

Flash-Fire Propensity and Heat-Release Rate Studies of Improved Fire Resistant Materials

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fewell, L. L.

1978-01-01

Twenty-six improved fire resistant materials were tested for flash-fire propensity and heat release rate properties. The tests were conducted to obtain a descriptive index based on the production of ignitable gases during the thermal degradation process and on the response of the materials under a specific heat load.

Fire danger rating network density

Treesearch

Rudy M. King; R. William Furman

1976-01-01

Conventional statistical techniques are used to answer the question, "What is the necessary station density for a fire danger network?" The Burning Index of the National Fire-Danger Rating System is used as an indicator of fire danger. Results are presented as station spacing in tabular form for each of six regions in the western United States.

Fire prevention film spots . . . reception by television public service directors

Treesearch

Gene C. Bemardi

1974-01-01

Television public service directors in California were asked to rate fire prevention film spots they had received from the California Division of Forestry. Most directors recalled receiving the spot announcements and rated them high in technical quality and interest. Delivery of the films by a fire prevention officer impressed directors favorably. Fire prevention...

Enclosure fire hazard analysis using relative energy release criteria. [burning rate and combustion control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Coulbert, C. D.

1978-01-01

A method for predicting the probable course of fire development in an enclosure is presented. This fire modeling approach uses a graphic plot of five fire development constraints, the relative energy release criteria (RERC), to bound the heat release rates in an enclosure as a function of time. The five RERC are flame spread rate, fuel surface area, ventilation, enclosure volume, and total fuel load. They may be calculated versus time based on the specified or empirical conditions describing the specific enclosure, the fuel type and load, and the ventilation. The calculation of these five criteria, using the common basis of energy release rates versus time, provides a unifying framework for the utilization of available experimental data from all phases of fire development. The plot of these criteria reveals the probable fire development envelope and indicates which fire constraint will be controlling during a criteria time period. Examples of RERC application to fire characterization and control and to hazard analysis are presented along with recommendations for the further development of the concept.

Temporal trends in mammal responses to fire reveals the complex effects of fire regime attributes.

PubMed

Lindenmayer, David B; Blanchard, Wade; MacGregor, Christopher; Barton, Philip; Banks, Sam C; Crane, Mason; Michael, Damian; Okada, Sachiko; Berry, Laurence; Florance, Daniel; Gill, Malcolm

2016-03-01

Fire is a major ecological process in many ecosystems worldwide. We sought to identify which attributes of fire regimes affect temporal change in the presence and abundance of Australian native mammals. Our detailed study was underpinned by time series data on 11 mammal species at 97 long-term sites in southeastern Australia between 2003 and 2013. We explored how temporal aspects of fire regimes influenced the presence and conditional abundance of species. The key fire regime components examined were: (1) severity of a major fire in 2003, (2) interval between the last major fire (2003) and the fire prior to that, and (3) number of past fires. Our long-term data set enabled quantification of the interactions between survey year and each fire regime variable: an ecological relationship missing from temporally restricted studies. We found no evidence of any appreciable departures from the assumption of independence of the sites. Multiple aspects of fire regimes influenced temporal variation in the presence and abundance of mammals. The best models indicated that six of the 11 species responded to two or more fire regime variables, with two species influenced by all three fire regime attributes. Almost all species responded to time since fire, either as an interaction with survey year or as a main effect. Fire severity or its interaction with survey year was important for most terrestrial rodents. The number of fires at a site was significant for terrestrial rodents and several other species. Our findings contain evidence of the effects on native mammals of heterogeneity in fire regimes. Temporal response patterns of mammal species were influenced by multiple fire regime attributes, often in conjunction with survey year. This underscores the critical importance of long-term studies of biota that are coupled with data sets characterized by carefully documented fire history, severity, and frequency. Long-term studies are essential to predict animal responses to fires and guide management of when and where (prescribed) fire or, conversely, long-unburned vegetation is needed. The complexity of observed responses highlights the need for large reserves in which patterns of heterogeneity in fire regimes can be sustained in space and over time.

Noise Trauma Induced Plastic Changes in Brain Regions outside the Classical Auditory Pathway

PubMed Central

Chen, Guang-Di; Sheppard, Adam; Salvi, Richard

2017-01-01

The effects of intense noise exposure on the classical auditory pathway have been extensively investigated; however, little is known about the effects of noise-induced hearing loss on non-classical auditory areas in the brain such as the lateral amygdala (LA) and striatum (Str). To address this issue, we compared the noise-induced changes in spontaneous and tone-evoked responses from multiunit clusters (MUC) in the LA and Str with those seen in auditory cortex (AC). High-frequency octave band noise (10–20 kHz) and narrow band noise (16–20 kHz) induced permanent thresho ld shifts (PTS) at high-frequencies within and above the noise band but not at low frequencies. While the noise trauma significantly elevated spontaneous discharge rate (SR) in the AC, SRs in the LA and Str were only slightly increased across all frequencies. The high-frequency noise trauma affected tone-evoked firing rates in frequency and time dependent manner and the changes appeared to be related to severity of noise trauma. In the LA, tone-evoked firing rates were reduced at the high-frequencies (trauma area) whereas firing rates were enhanced at the low-frequencies or at the edge-frequency dependent on severity of hearing loss at the high frequencies. The firing rate temporal profile changed from a broad plateau to one sharp, delayed peak. In the AC, tone-evoked firing rates were depressed at high frequencies and enhanced at the low frequencies while the firing rate temporal profiles became substantially broader. In contrast, firing rates in the Str were generally decreased and firing rate temporal profiles become more phasic and less prolonged. The altered firing rate and pattern at low frequencies induced by high frequency hearing loss could have perceptual consequences. The tone-evoked hyperactivity in low-frequency MUC could manifest as hyperacusis whereas the discharge pattern changes could affect temporal resolution and integration. PMID:26701290

Fire characteristics associated with firefighter injury on large federal wildland fires.

PubMed

Britton, Carla; Lynch, Charles F; Torner, James; Peek-Asa, Corinne

2013-02-01

Wildland fires present many injury hazards to firefighters. We estimate injury rates and identify fire-related factors associated with injury. Data from the National Interagency Fire Center from 2003 to 2007 provided the number of injuries in which the firefighter could not return to his or her job assignment, person-days worked, and fire characteristics (year, region, season, cause, fuel type, resistance to control, and structures destroyed). We assessed fire-level risk factors of having at least one reported injury using logistic regression. Negative binomial regression was used to examine incidence rate ratios associated with fire-level risk factors. Of 867 fires, 9.5% required the most complex management and 24.7% required the next-highest level of management. Fires most often occurred in the western United States (82.8%), during the summer (69.6%), caused by lightening (54.9%). Timber was the most frequent fuel source (40.2%). Peak incident management level, person-days of exposure, and the fire's resistance to control were significantly related to the odds of a fire having at least one reported injury. However, the most complex fires had a lower injury incidence rate than less complex fires. Although fire complexity and the number of firefighters were associated with the risk for at least one reported injury, the more experienced and specialized firefighting teams had lower injury incidence. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Management of south Texas shrublands with prescribed fire

Treesearch

C. Wayne Hanselka; D. Lynn Drawe; D.C. III Ruthven

2007-01-01

The Rio Grande Plains (RGP) and Coastal Prairie (CP) of South Texas is the southernmost extension of the Great Plains Grasslands. Fire, along with other climatic variables, such as drought, presumably maintained mesquite (Prosopis glandulosa Torr.) savannas and interspersed grasslands of pre- European settlement South Texas. Frequency of fire...

Modelling public support for wildland fire policy

Treesearch

J.D. Absher; J.J. Vaske

2007-01-01

Theoretically grounded explanations of wildland fire policy can be improved by empirically documenting the causal influences of support for (or opposition to) management alternatives. This chapter proposes a model based on the specificity principle (i.e. correspondence between measured variables to empirically examine four common wildland fire policies in relation to...

Burning phylogenies: fire, molecular evolutionary rates, and diversification.

PubMed

Verdú, Miguel; Pausas, Juli G; Segarra-Moragues, José Gabriel; Ojeda, Fernando

2007-09-01

Mediterranean-type ecosystems are among the most remarkable plant biodiversity "hot spots" on the earth, and fire has traditionally been invoked as one of the evolutionary forces explaining this exceptional diversity. In these ecosystems, adult plants of some species are able to survive after fire (resprouters), whereas in other species fire kills the adults and populations are only maintained by an effective post-fire recruitment (seeders). Seeders tend to have shorter generation times than resprouters, particularly under short fire return intervals, thus potentially increasing their molecular evolutionary rates and, ultimately, their diversification. We explored whether seeder lineages actually have higher rates of molecular evolution and diversification than resprouters. Molecular evolutionary rates in different DNA regions were compared in 45 phylogenetically paired congeneric taxa from fire-prone Mediterranean-type ecosystems with contrasting seeder and resprouter life histories. Differential diversification was analyzed with both topological and chronological approaches in five genera (Banksia, Daviesia, Lachnaea, Leucadendron, and Thamnochortus) from two fire-prone regions (Australia and South Africa). We found that seeders had neither higher molecular rates nor higher diversification than resprouters. Such lack of differences in molecular rates between seeders and resprouters-which did not agree with theoretical predictions-may occur if (1) the timing of the switch from seeding to resprouting (or vice versa) occurs near the branch tip, so that most of the branch length evolves under the opposite life-history form; (2) resprouters suffer more somatic mutations and therefore counterbalancing the replication-induced mutations of seeders; and (3) the rate of mutations is not related to shorter generation times because plants do not undergo determinate germ-line replication. The absence of differential diversification is to be expected if seeders and resprouters do not differ from each other in their molecular evolutionary rate, which is the fuel for speciation. Although other factors such as the formation of isolated populations may trigger diversification, we can conclude that fire acting as a throttle for diversification is by no means the rule in fire-prone ecosystems.

MODIS NDVI Response Following Fires in Siberia

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ranson, K. Jon; Sun, G.; Kovacs, K.; Kharuk, V. I.

2003-01-01

The Siberian boreal forest is considered a carbon sink but may become an important source of carbon dioxide if climatic warming predictions are correct. The forest is continually changing through various disturbance mechanisms such as insects, logging, mineral exploitation, and especially fires. Patterns of disturbance and forest recovery processes are important factors regulating carbon flux in this area. NASA's Terra MODIS provides useful information for assessing location of fires and post fire changes in forests. MODIS fire (MOD14), and NDVI (MOD13) products were used to examine fire occurrence and post fire variability in vegetation cover as indicated by NDVI. Results were interpreted for various post fire outcomes, such as decreased NDVI after fire, no change in NDVI after fire and positive NDVI change after fire. The fire frequency data were also evaluated in terms of proximity to population centers, and transportation networks.

Database of in-situ field measurements for estimates of fuel consumption and fire emissions in Siberia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kukavskaya, Elena; Conard, Susan; Buryak, Ludmila; Ivanova, Galina; Soja, Amber; Kalenskaya, Olga; Zhila, Sergey; Zarubin, Denis; Groisman, Pavel

2016-04-01

Wildfires show great variability in the amount of fuel consumed and carbon emitted to the atmosphere. Various types of models are used to calculate global or large scale regional fire emissions. However, in the databases used to estimate fuel consumptions, data for Russia are typically under-represented. Meanwhile, the differences in vegetation and fire regimes in the boreal forests in North America and Eurasia argue strongly for the need of regional ecosystem-specific data. For about 15 years we have been collecting field data on fuel loads and consumption in different ecosystem types of Siberia. We conducted a series of experimental burnings of varying fireline intensity in Scots pine and larch forests of central Siberia to obtain quantitative and qualitative data on fire behavior and carbon emissions. In addition, we examined wildfire behavior and effects in different vegetation types including Scots pine, Siberian pine, fir, birch, poplar, and larch-dominated forests; evergreen coniferous shrubs; grasslands, and peats. We investigated various ecosystem zones of Siberia (central and southern taiga, forest-steppe, steppe, mountains) in the different subjects of the Russian Federation (Krasnoyarsk Kray, Republic of Khakassia, Republic of Buryatia, Tuva Republic, Zabaikalsky Kray). To evaluate the impact of forest practices on fire emissions, burned and unburned logged sites and forest plantations were examined. We found large variations of fuel consumption and fire emission rates among different vegetation types depending on growing conditions, fire behavior characteristics and anthropogenic factors. Changes in the climate system result in an increase in fire frequency, area burned, the number of extreme fires, fire season length, fire season severity, and the number of ignitions from lightning. This leads to an increase of fire-related emissions of carbon to the atmosphere. The field measurement database we compiled is required for improving accuracy of existing biomass burning models and for use by air quality agencies in developing regional strategies to mitigate negative smoke impacts on human health and environment. The research was supported by the Grant of the President of the Russian Federation MK-4646.2015.5, RFBR grant # 15-04-06567, and the NASA LCLUC Program.

Automated Intelligent Agents: Are They Trusted Members of Military Teams?

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-12-01

computer -based team firefighting game (C3Fire). The order of presentation of the two trials (human – human vs. human – automation) was...agent. All teams played a computer -based team firefighting game (C3Fire). The order of presentation of the two trials (human – human vs. human...26 b. Participants’ Computer ..................27 C. VARIABLES .........................................27 1. Independent Variables

The Tiptop coal-mine fire, Kentucky: Preliminary investigation of the measurement of mercury and other hazardous gases from coal-fire gas vents

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hower, James C.; Henke, Kevin R.; O'Keefe, Jennifer M.K.; Engle, Mark A.; Blake, Donald R.; Stracher, Glenn B.

2009-01-01

Variation in gas temperatures, nearly 300 °C during the January visit to the fire versus < 50 °C in May, demonstrates the large temporal variability in fire intensity at the Tiptop mine. These preliminary results suggest that emissions from coal fires may be important, but additional data are required that address the reasons for significant variations in the composition, flow, and temperature of vent gases.

RISICO: A decision support system (DSS) for dynamic wildfire risk evaluation in Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Andrea, Mirko; Fiorucci, Paolo; Gaetani, Francesco; Negro, Dario

2010-05-01

The system RISICO provides Italian Civil Protection Department (DPC) with daily wildland fire risk forecast maps relevant to the whole national territory since 2003. RISICO support the activities relating to Italian national forest fires warning system and National fires fighting air fleet. The RISICO system has a complex software architecture based on a framework able to manage geospatial data as well as time dependent information (e.g, Numerical Weather Prediction, real time meteorological observations, and satellite data). Within the system semi-physical models, able to simulate in space and time the variability of the fuel moisture content, are implemented. This parameter represents the main variable related with the ignition of a fire. Based on this information and introducing information on topography and wind field the model provides the rate of spread and the linear intensity of a potential fire generated by accidental or deliberate ignition. The model takes into account the vegetation patterns, in terms of fuel load and flammability. It needs territorial and meteorological data. Territorial data used by the system are vegetation cover and topography. Meteorological data are mainly represented by Numerical Weather Prediction (Limited Area model). Meteorological data provided in real time by a meteorological network are also used by the model as well as satellite data (e.g., vegetation index, snow cover). The output information are provided on a web-gis based system according with the OGC-INSPIRE standard. In 2007 the system has been improved introducing some changes both in the model structure and its functionality. Spatial resolution is increased up to 100m in the implementation at regional level. The fine fuel moisture model has been changed, introducing the FFMC of the CFFDRS with some slightly differences. In addition, a different nominal rate of spread (no-wind on flat terrain) has been introduced for each different class of vegetation. The operational chain of the RISICO system is considerably changed. In the first release the system run daily making use of observations only to define the initial state of the dead fine fuel moisture content. The new version of the system is able to run each 3-h making use of observations at each time step. In order to validate the RISICO system, the information obtained from the analysis of really occurred fires has been compared with the information generated by RISICO system. In particular, a data set of more than 11000 wildland fires occurred in Italy between 01/01/2007 and 31/12/2008 has been considered in the validation procedure. The performance indexes selected in order to measure the system effectiveness are relevant to the capability of identifying the correct danger classes with reference to the extension and duration of the fire. In this connection, a comparison between the performance obtained by the new release of the RISICO system and the previous one has been carried out highlighting separately the improvement given by the higher resolution, the model structure and the operational chain. The system RISICO is able to integrate the main Fire Hazard Indexes present in the literature providing a suitable tool for testing the different indexes on the same platform in different environmental and climatic conditions. Risico represents an operational approach to forest fires management both during the prevention and fire fighting phases. The prevention phase represents the main goal for the DPC. Prevention starts with a daily bulletin issue. The bulletin is based on RISICO data, forecast, meteorological data and other observed data such as active fires. The bulletin is dispatched to all operative bodies employed both in fire fighting and civil protection activities. During the fire fighting activities Risico support decision maker to define the best strategies. The objective of the paper is to promote the use of Fire Hazard Forecast as operational tool in fire risk prevention and management and to provide know-how for standardisation of the fire hazard "mapping" or "alert" systems in Europe. This work was funded by the Italian Civil Protection.

Testing the Hypothesis of Fire Use for Ecosystem Management by Neanderthal and Upper Palaeolithic Modern Human Populations

PubMed Central

Daniau, Anne-Laure; d'Errico, Francesco; Sánchez Goñi, Maria Fernanda

2010-01-01

Background It has been proposed that a greater control and more extensive use of fire was one of the behavioral innovations that emerged in Africa among early Modern Humans, favouring their spread throughout the world and determining their eventual evolutionary success. We would expect, if extensive fire use for ecosystem management were a component of the modern human technical and cognitive package, as suggested for Australia, to find major disturbances in the natural biomass burning variability associated with the colonisation of Europe by Modern Humans. Methodology/Principal Findings Analyses of microcharcoal preserved in two deep-sea cores located off Iberia and France were used to reconstruct changes in biomass burning between 70 and 10 kyr cal BP. Results indicate that fire regime follows the Dansgaard-Oeschger climatic variability and its impacts on fuel load. No major disturbance in natural fire regime variability is observed at the time of the arrival of Modern Humans in Europe or during the remainder of the Upper Palaeolithic (40–10 kyr cal BP). Conclusions/Significance Results indicate that either Neanderthals and Modern humans did not influence fire regime or that, if they did, their respective influence was comparable at a regional scale, and not as pronounced as that observed in the biomass burning history of Southeast Asia. PMID:20161786

Reduced high-frequency motor neuron firing, EMG fractionation, and gait variability in awake walking ALS mice

PubMed Central

Hadzipasic, Muhamed; Ni, Weiming; Nagy, Maria; Steenrod, Natalie; McGinley, Matthew J.; Kaushal, Adi; Thomas, Eleanor; McCormick, David A.

2016-01-01

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a lethal neurodegenerative disease prominently featuring motor neuron (MN) loss and paralysis. A recent study using whole-cell patch clamp recording of MNs in acute spinal cord slices from symptomatic adult ALS mice showed that the fastest firing MNs are preferentially lost. To measure the in vivo effects of such loss, awake symptomatic-stage ALS mice performing self-initiated walking on a wheel were studied. Both single-unit extracellular recordings within spinal cord MN pools for lower leg flexor and extensor muscles and the electromyograms (EMGs) of the corresponding muscles were recorded. In the ALS mice, we observed absent or truncated high-frequency firing of MNs at the appropriate time in the step cycle and step-to-step variability of the EMG, as well as flexor-extensor coactivation. In turn, kinematic analysis of walking showed step-to-step variability of gait. At the MN level, the higher frequencies absent from recordings from mutant mice corresponded with the upper range of frequencies observed for fast-firing MNs in earlier slice measurements. These results suggest that, in SOD1-linked ALS mice, symptoms are a product of abnormal MN firing due at least in part to loss of neurons that fire at high frequency, associated with altered EMG patterns and hindlimb kinematics during gait. PMID:27821773

Are High-Severity Fires Burning at Much Higher Rates Recently than Historically in Dry-Forest Landscapes of the Western USA?

PubMed Central

Baker, William L.

2015-01-01

Dry forests at low elevations in temperate-zone mountains are commonly hypothesized to be at risk of exceptional rates of severe fire from climatic change and land-use effects. Their setting is fire-prone, they have been altered by land-uses, and fire severity may be increasing. However, where fires were excluded, increased fire could also be hypothesized as restorative of historical fire. These competing hypotheses are not well tested, as reference data prior to widespread land-use expansion were insufficient. Moreover, fire-climate projections were lacking for these forests. Here, I used new reference data and records of high-severity fire from 1984–2012 across all dry forests (25.5 million ha) of the western USA to test these hypotheses. I also approximated projected effects of climatic change on high-severity fire in dry forests by applying existing projections. This analysis showed the rate of recent high-severity fire in dry forests is within the range of historical rates, or is too low, overall across dry forests and individually in 42 of 43 analysis regions. Significant upward trends were lacking overall from 1984–2012 for area burned and fraction burned at high severity. Upward trends in area burned at high severity were found in only 4 of 43 analysis regions. Projections for A.D. 2046–2065 showed high-severity fire would generally be still operating at, or have been restored to historical rates, although high projections suggest high-severity fire rotations that are too short could ensue in 6 of 43 regions. Programs to generally reduce fire severity in dry forests are not supported and have significant adverse ecological impacts, including reducing habitat for native species dependent on early-successional burned patches and decreasing landscape heterogeneity that confers resilience to climatic change. Some adverse ecological effects of high-severity fires are concerns. Managers and communities can improve our ability to live with high-severity fire in dry forests. PMID:26351850

Severe fire weather and intensive forest management increase fire severity in a multi-ownership landscape.

PubMed

Zald, Harold S J; Dunn, Christopher J

2018-04-26

Many studies have examined how fuels, topography, climate, and fire weather influence fire severity. Less is known about how different forest management practices influence fire severity in multi-owner landscapes, despite costly and controversial suppression of wildfires that do not acknowledge ownership boundaries. In 2013, the Douglas Complex burned over 19,000 ha of Oregon & California Railroad (O&C) lands in Southwestern Oregon, USA. O&C lands are composed of a checkerboard of private industrial and federal forestland (Bureau of Land Management, BLM) with contrasting management objectives, providing a unique experimental landscape to understand how different management practices influence wildfire severity. Leveraging Landsat based estimates of fire severity (Relative differenced Normalized Burn Ratio, RdNBR) and geospatial data on fire progression, weather, topography, pre-fire forest conditions, and land ownership, we asked (1) what is the relative importance of different variables driving fire severity, and (2) is intensive plantation forestry associated with higher fire severity? Using Random Forest ensemble machine learning, we found daily fire weather was the most important predictor of fire severity, followed by stand age and ownership, followed by topographic features. Estimates of pre-fire forest biomass were not an important predictor of fire severity. Adjusting for all other predictor variables in a general least squares model incorporating spatial autocorrelation, mean predicted RdNBR was higher on private industrial forests (RdNBR 521.85 ± 18.67 [mean ± SE]) vs. BLM forests (398.87 ± 18.23) with a much greater proportion of older forests. Our findings suggest intensive plantation forestry characterized by young forests and spatially homogenized fuels, rather than pre-fire biomass, were significant drivers of wildfire severity. This has implications for perceptions of wildfire risk, shared fire management responsibilities, and developing fire resilience for multiple objectives in multi-owner landscapes. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

A Variable Oscillator Underlies the Measurement of Time Intervals in the Rostral Medial Prefrontal Cortex during Classical Eyeblink Conditioning in Rabbits.

PubMed

Caro-Martín, C Rocío; Leal-Campanario, Rocío; Sánchez-Campusano, Raudel; Delgado-García, José M; Gruart, Agnès

2015-11-04

We were interested in determining whether rostral medial prefrontal cortex (rmPFC) neurons participate in the measurement of conditioned stimulus-unconditioned stimulus (CS-US) time intervals during classical eyeblink conditioning. Rabbits were conditioned with a delay paradigm consisting of a tone as CS. The CS started 50, 250, 500, 1000, or 2000 ms before and coterminated with an air puff (100 ms) directed at the cornea as the US. Eyelid movements were recorded with the magnetic search coil technique and the EMG activity of the orbicularis oculi muscle. Firing activities of rmPFC neurons were recorded across conditioning sessions. Reflex and conditioned eyelid responses presented a dominant oscillatory frequency of ≈12 Hz. The firing rate of each recorded neuron presented a single peak of activity with a frequency dependent on the CS-US interval (i.e., ≈12 Hz for 250 ms, ≈6 Hz for 500 ms, and≈3 Hz for 1000 ms). Interestingly, rmPFC neurons presented their dominant firing peaks at three precise times evenly distributed with respect to CS start and also depending on the duration of the CS-US interval (only for intervals of 250, 500, and 1000 ms). No significant neural responses were recorded at very short (50 ms) or long (2000 ms) CS-US intervals. rmPFC neurons seem not to encode the oscillatory properties characterizing conditioned eyelid responses in rabbits, but are probably involved in the determination of CS-US intervals of an intermediate range (250-1000 ms). We propose that a variable oscillator underlies the generation of working memories in rabbits. The way in which brains generate working memories (those used for the transient processing and storage of newly acquired information) is still an intriguing question. Here, we report that the firing activities of neurons located in the rostromedial prefrontal cortex recorded in alert behaving rabbits are controlled by a dynamic oscillator. This oscillator generated firing frequencies in a variable band of 3-12 Hz depending on the conditioned stimulus-unconditioned stimulus intervals (1 s, 500 ms, 250 ms) selected for classical eyeblink conditioning of behaving rabbits. Shorter (50 ms) and longer (2 s) intervals failed to activate the oscillator and prevented the acquisition of conditioned eyelid responses. This is an unexpected mechanism to generate sustained firing activities in neural circuits generating working memories. Copyright © 2015 the authors 0270-6474/15/3514809-13$15.00/0.

Independence of motor unit recruitment and rate modulation during precision force control.

PubMed

Kamen, G; Du, D C

1999-01-01

The vertebrate motor system chiefly employs motor unit recruitment and rate coding to modulate muscle force output. In this paper, we studied how the recruitment of new motor units altered the firing rate of already-active motor units during precision force production in the first dorsal interosseous muscle. Six healthy adults performed linearly increasing isometric voluntary contractions while motor unit activity and force output were recorded. After motor unit discharges were identified, motor unit firing rates were calculated before and after the instances of new motor unit recruitment. Three procedures were applied to compute motor unit firing rate, including the mean of a fixed number of inter-spike intervals and the constant width weighted Hanning window filter method, as well as a modified boxcar technique. In contrast to previous reports, the analysis of the firing rates of over 200 motor units revealed that reduction of the active firing rates was not a common mechanism used to accommodate the twitch force produced by the recruitment of a new motor unit. Similarly, during de-recruitment there was no tendency for motor unit firing rates to increase immediately following the cessation of activity in other motor units. Considerable consistency in recruitment behavior was observed during repeated contractions. However, firing rates during repeated contractions demonstrated considerably more fluctuation. It is concluded that the neuromuscular system does not use short-term preferential motor unit disfacilitation to effect precise regulation of muscular force output.

Fractional-order leaky integrate-and-fire model with long-term memory and power law dynamics.

PubMed

Teka, Wondimu W; Upadhyay, Ranjit Kumar; Mondal, Argha

2017-09-01

Pyramidal neurons produce different spiking patterns to process information, communicate with each other and transform information. These spiking patterns have complex and multiple time scale dynamics that have been described with the fractional-order leaky integrate-and-Fire (FLIF) model. Models with fractional (non-integer) order differentiation that generalize power law dynamics can be used to describe complex temporal voltage dynamics. The main characteristic of FLIF model is that it depends on all past values of the voltage that causes long-term memory. The model produces spikes with high interspike interval variability and displays several spiking properties such as upward spike-frequency adaptation and long spike latency in response to a constant stimulus. We show that the subthreshold voltage and the firing rate of the fractional-order model make transitions from exponential to power law dynamics when the fractional order α decreases from 1 to smaller values. The firing rate displays different types of spike timing adaptation caused by changes on initial values. We also show that the voltage-memory trace and fractional coefficient are the causes of these different types of spiking properties. The voltage-memory trace that represents the long-term memory has a feedback regulatory mechanism and affects spiking activity. The results suggest that fractional-order models might be appropriate for understanding multiple time scale neuronal dynamics. Overall, a neuron with fractional dynamics displays history dependent activities that might be very useful and powerful for effective information processing. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Organic aerosol evaporation and formation in biomass-burning plumes: The competition between dilution and chemistry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pierce, J. R.; Kreidenweis, S. M.; Bian, Q.; Jathar, S.; Kodros, J.; Barsanti, K.; Hatch, L. E.; May, A.

2017-12-01

Secondary organic aerosol (SOA) has been shown to form in biomass-burning emissions in laboratory and field studies. However, there is significant variability among studies in mass enhancement, which could be due to differences in fuels, fire conditions, dilution, and/or limitations of laboratory experiments and observations. This study focuses on understanding processes affecting biomass-burning SOA formation in ambient plumes. The plume dilution rate impacts the organic partitioning between the gas and particle phases, which may impact the potential for SOA to form as well as the rate of SOA formation. We use an aerosol microphysics model that includes representations of volatility and oxidation chemistry to estimate SOA formation in the smoke emitted into the atmosphere. We add Gaussian dispersion to our aerosol microphysical model to estimate how SOA formation may vary under different ambient-plume conditions (e.g. fire size, emission mass flux, atmospheric stability). Smoke from small fires, such as typical prescribed burns, dilutes rapidly, which drives evaporation of organic vapor from the particle phase, leading to more effective SOA formation. Emissions from large fires, such as intense wildfires, dilute slowly, suppressing OA evaporation and subsequent SOA formation in the near field. We also demonstrate that different approaches to the calculation of OA enhancement in ambient plumes can lead to different conclusions regarding SOA formation. Normalized OA mass enhancement ratios of around 1 calculated using an inert tracer, such as black carbon or CO, have traditionally been interpreted as exhibiting little or no SOA formation; however, we show that SOA formation may have greatly contributed to the mass in these plumes.

Production rates for crews using hand tools on firelines

Treesearch

Lisa Haven; T. Parkin Hunter; Theodore G. Storey

1982-01-01

Reported rates at which hand crews construct firelines can vary widely because of differences in fuels, fire and measurement conditions, and fuel resistance-to-control classification schemes. Real-time fire dispatching and fire simulation planning models, however, require accurate estimates of hand crew productivity. Errors in estimating rate of fireline production...

An Analysis of Stochastic Duels Involving Fixed Rates of Fire

DTIC Science & Technology

The thesis presents an analysis of stochastic duels involving two opposing weapon systems with constant rates of fire. The duel was developed as a...process stochastic duels . The analysis was then extended to the two versus one duel where the three weapon systems were assumed to have fixed rates of fire.

Conversion tables for use with the National Fire-Danger Rating System in the Intermountain area

Treesearch

Dwight S. Stockstad; Richard J. Barney

1964-01-01

Two tables prepared for use with the National Fire-Danger Rating System replace 10 tables previously used with the Model-8 Fire-Danger Rating System. They provide for the conversion of Spread Index values at various altitudes, aspects, and times of day. A rate of spread table facilitates converting Spread Index values to chains per hour of perimeter increase for...

Effect of firing rate on the performance of shock wave lithotriptors.

PubMed

Pishchalnikov, Yuri A; McAteer, James A; Williams, James C

2008-12-01

To determine the mechanism that underlies the effect of shock wave (SW) rate on the performance of clinical lithotripters. The effect of firing rate on the pressure characteristics of SWs was assessed using a fibre-optic probe hydrophone (FOPH 500, RP Acoustics, Leutenbach, Germany). Shock waves were fired at slow (5-27 SW/min) and fast (100-120 SW/min) rates using a conventional high-pressure lithotriptor (DoLi-50, Dornier MedTech America, Inc., Kennesaw, GA, USA), and a new low-pressure lithotriptor (XX-ES, Xi Xin Medical Instruments Co. Ltd, Suzhou, PRC). A digital camcorder (HDR-HC3, Sony, Japan) was used to record cavitation fields, and an ultrafast multiframe high-speed camera (Imacon 200, DRS Data & Imaging Systems, Inc., Oakland, NJ, USA) was used to follow the evolution of bubbles throughout the cavitation cycle. Firing rate had little effect on the leading positive-pressure phase of the SWs with the DoLi lithotriptor. A slight reduction ( approximately 7%) of peak positive pressure (P+) was detected only in the very dense cavitation fields (approximately 1000 bubbles/cm(3)) generated at the fastest firing rate (120 SW/min) in nondegassed water. The negative pressure of the SWs, on the other hand, was dramatically affected by firing rate. At 120 SW/min the peak negative pressure was reduced by approximately 84%, the duration and area of the negative pressure component was reduced by approximately 80% and approximately 98%, respectively, and the energy density of negative pressure was reduced by >99%. Whereas cavitation bubbles proliferated at fast firing rates, HS-camera images showed the bubbles that persisted between SWs were very small (<10 microm). Similar results were obtained with the XX-ES lithotriptor but only after recognizing a rate-dependent charging artefact with that machine. Increasing the firing rate of a lithotriptor can dramatically reduce the negative pressure component of the SWs, while the positive pressure remains virtually unaffected. Cavitation increases as the firing rate is increased but as the bubbles collapse, they break into numerous microbubbles that, because of their very small size, do not pose a barrier to the leading positive pressure of the next SW. These findings begin to explain why stone breakage in SWL becomes less efficient as the firing rate is increased.

Do one percent of the forest fires cause ninety-nine percent of the damage? Forest Science

Treesearch

David Strauss; Larry Bednar; Romain Mees

1989-01-01

A relatively small number of forest fires are responsible for a very high proportion of the total damage. The proportion due to the fraction p of largest fires, when plotted against p, is a measure of variability of fire sizes that is especially sensitive to the important extreme events. We find the theoretical form of the plot for several commonly used distributions...

Genetic component of flammability variation in a Mediterranean shrub.

PubMed

Moreira, B; Castellanos, M C; Pausas, J G

2014-03-01

Recurrent fires impose a strong selection pressure in many ecosystems worldwide. In such ecosystems, plant flammability is of paramount importance because it enhances population persistence, particularly in non-resprouting species. Indeed, there is evidence of phenotypic divergence of flammability under different fire regimes. Our general hypothesis is that flammability-enhancing traits are adaptive; here, we test whether they have a genetic component. To test this hypothesis, we used the postfire obligate seeder Ulex parviflorus from sites historically exposed to different fire recurrence. We associated molecular variation in potentially adaptive loci detected with a genomic scan (using AFLP markers) with individual phenotypic variability in flammability across fire regimes. We found that at least 42% of the phenotypic variation in flammability was explained by the genetic divergence in a subset of AFLP loci. In spite of generalized gene flow, the genetic variability was structured by differences in fire recurrence. Our results provide the first field evidence supporting that traits enhancing plant flammability have a genetic component and thus can be responding to natural selection driven by fire. These results highlight the importance of flammability as an adaptive trait in fire-prone ecosystems. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Predicting watershed sediment yields after wildland fire with the InVEST sediment retention model at large geographic extent in the western USA: accuracy and uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sankey, J. B.; Kreitler, J.; McVay, J.; Hawbaker, T. J.; Vaillant, N.; Lowe, S. E.

2014-12-01

Wildland fire is a primary threat to watersheds that can impact water supply through increased sedimentation, water quality decline, and change the timing and amount of runoff leading to increased risk from flood and sediment natural hazards. It is of great societal importance in the western USA and throughout the world to improve understanding of how changing fire frequency, extent, and location, in conjunction with fuel treatments will affect watersheds and the ecosystem services they supply to communities. In this work we assess the utility of the InVEST Sediment Retention Model to accurately characterize vulnerability of burned watersheds to erosion and sedimentation. The InVEST tools are GIS-based implementations of common process models, engineered for high-end computing to allow the faster simulation of larger landscapes and incorporation into decision-making. The InVEST Sediment Retention Model is based on common soil erosion models (e.g., RUSLE -Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation) and determines which areas of the landscape contribute the greatest sediment loads to a hydrological network and conversely evaluate the ecosystem service of sediment retention on a watershed basis. We evaluate the accuracy and uncertainties for InVEST predictions of increased sedimentation after fire, using measured post-fire sedimentation rates available for many watersheds in different rainfall regimes throughout the western USA from an existing, large USGS database of post-fire sediment yield [synthesized in Moody J, Martin D (2009) Synthesis of sediment yields after wildland fire in different rainfall regimes in the western United States. International Journal of Wildland Fire 18: 96-115]. The ultimate goal of this work is to calibrate and implement the model to accurately predict variability in post-fire sediment yield as a function of future landscape heterogeneity predicted by wildfire simulations, and future landscape fuel treatment scenarios, within watersheds.

The Effect of Seasonal Ambient Temperatures on Fire-Stimulated Germination of Species with Physiological Dormancy: A Case Study Using Boronia (Rutaceae).

PubMed

Mackenzie, Berin D E; Auld, Tony D; Keith, David A; Hui, Francis K C; Ooi, Mark K J

2016-01-01

Dormancy and germination requirements determine the timing and magnitude of seedling emergence, with important consequences for seedling survival and growth. Physiological dormancy is the most widespread form of dormancy in flowering plants, yet the seed ecology of species with this dormancy type is poorly understood in fire-prone vegetation. The role of seasonal temperatures as germination cues in these habitats is often overlooked due to a focus on direct fire cues such as heat shock and smoke, and little is known about the combined effects of multiple fire-related cues and environmental cues as these are seldom assessed in combination. We aimed to improve understanding of the germination requirements of species with physiological dormancy in fire-prone floras by investigating germination responses across members of the Rutaceae from south eastern Australia. We used a fully factorial experimental design to quantify the individual and combined effects of heat shock, smoke and seasonal ambient temperatures on germination of freshly dispersed seeds of seven species of Boronia, a large and difficult-to-germinate genus. Germination syndromes were highly variable but correlated with broad patterns in seed morphology and phylogenetic relationships between species. Seasonal temperatures influenced the rate and/or magnitude of germination responses in six species, and interacted with fire cues in complex ways. The combined effects of heat shock and smoke ranged from neutral to additive, synergistic, unitive or negative and varied with species, seasonal temperatures and duration of incubation. These responses could not be reliably predicted from the effect of the application of single cues. Based on these findings, fire season and fire intensity are predicted to affect both the magnitude and timing of seedling emergence in wild populations of species with physiological dormancy, with important implications for current fire management practices and for population persistence under climate change.

The Effect of Seasonal Ambient Temperatures on Fire-Stimulated Germination of Species with Physiological Dormancy: A Case Study Using Boronia (Rutaceae)

PubMed Central

Auld, Tony D.; Keith, David A.; Hui, Francis K. C.; Ooi, Mark K. J.

2016-01-01

Dormancy and germination requirements determine the timing and magnitude of seedling emergence, with important consequences for seedling survival and growth. Physiological dormancy is the most widespread form of dormancy in flowering plants, yet the seed ecology of species with this dormancy type is poorly understood in fire-prone vegetation. The role of seasonal temperatures as germination cues in these habitats is often overlooked due to a focus on direct fire cues such as heat shock and smoke, and little is known about the combined effects of multiple fire-related cues and environmental cues as these are seldom assessed in combination. We aimed to improve understanding of the germination requirements of species with physiological dormancy in fire-prone floras by investigating germination responses across members of the Rutaceae from south eastern Australia. We used a fully factorial experimental design to quantify the individual and combined effects of heat shock, smoke and seasonal ambient temperatures on germination of freshly dispersed seeds of seven species of Boronia, a large and difficult-to-germinate genus. Germination syndromes were highly variable but correlated with broad patterns in seed morphology and phylogenetic relationships between species. Seasonal temperatures influenced the rate and/or magnitude of germination responses in six species, and interacted with fire cues in complex ways. The combined effects of heat shock and smoke ranged from neutral to additive, synergistic, unitive or negative and varied with species, seasonal temperatures and duration of incubation. These responses could not be reliably predicted from the effect of the application of single cues. Based on these findings, fire season and fire intensity are predicted to affect both the magnitude and timing of seedling emergence in wild populations of species with physiological dormancy, with important implications for current fire management practices and for population persistence under climate change. PMID:27218652

An operational system of fire danger rating over Mediterranean Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pinto, Miguel M.; DaCamara, Carlos C.; Trigo, Isabel F.; Trigo, Ricardo M.

2017-04-01

A methodology is presented to assess fire danger based on the probability of exceedance of prescribed thresholds of daily released energy. The procedure is developed and tested over Mediterranean Europe, defined by latitude circles of 35 and 45°N and meridians of 10°W and 27.5°E, for the period 2010-2016. The procedure involves estimating the so-called static and daily probabilities of exceedance. For a given point, the static probability is estimated by the ratio of the number of daily fire occurrences releasing energy above a given threshold to the total number of occurrences inside a cell centred at the point. The daily probability of exceedance which takes into account meteorological factors by means of the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) is in turn estimated based on a Generalized Pareto distribution with static probability and FWI as covariates of the scale parameter. The rationale of the procedure is that small fires, assessed by the static probability, have a weak dependence on weather, whereas the larger fires strongly depend on concurrent meteorological conditions. It is shown that observed frequencies of exceedance over the study area for the period 2010-2016 match with the estimated values of probability based on the developed models for static and daily probabilities of exceedance. Some (small) variability is however found between different years suggesting that refinements can be made in future works by using a larger sample to further increase the robustness of the method. The developed methodology presents the advantage of evaluating fire danger with the same criteria for all the study area, making it a good parameter to harmonize fire danger forecasts and forest management studies. Research was performed within the framework of EUMETSAT Satellite Application Facility for Land Surface Analysis (LSA SAF). Part of methods developed and results obtained are on the basis of the platform supported by The Navigator Company that is currently providing information about fire meteorological danger for Portugal for a wide range of users.

Permafrost as an additional driving factor for the extreme fire event in the boreal Baikal region in 2003

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forkel, M.; Thonicke, K.; Beer, C.; Cramer, W.; Bartalev, S.; Schmullius, C.

2012-04-01

Wildfires are a natural and important element in the functioning of boreal forests. However, in some years, fires with extreme spread and severity occur. Such severe fires degrade the forest, affect human values, emit huge amount of carbon and aerosols and alter the land surface albedo. Usually, wind, slope, and dry conditions have been recognized as factors determining fire spread. In the Baikal region, 127,000 km2 burned in 2003, while the annual average burned area is approx. 8100 km2. In average years, 16% of the burned area occurred in the continuous permafrost zone but in 2003, 33% of these burned areas coincide with the existence of permanently frozen grounds. Permafrost and the associated upper active layer, which thaws during summer and refreezes during winter, is an important supply for soil moisture in boreal ecosystems. This leads to the question if permafrost hydrology is a potential additional driving factor for extreme fire events in boreal forests. Using temperature and precipitation data, we calculated the Nesterov index as indicator for fire weather conditions. Further, we used satellite observations of burned area and surface moisture, a digital elevation model, a land cover and a permafrost map to evaluate drivers for the temporal dynamic and spatial variability of surface moisture conditions and burned area in spring 2003. On the basis of time series decomposition, we separated the effect of drivers for fire activity on different time scales. We next computed cross-correlations to identify potential time lags between weather conditions, surface moisture and fire activity. Finally, we assessed the predictive capability of different combinations of driving variables for surface moisture conditions and burned area using multivariate spatial-temporal regression models. The results from this study demonstrate that permafrost in larch-dominated ecosystems regulates the inter-annual variability of surface moisture and thus increases the inter-annual variability of burned area. The drought conditions in spring 2003 were accelerated by the presence of permafrost because less water was stored in the upper active layer from the dry previous summer 2002 and the permafrost table prevents vegetative water uptake from deeper layers. In contrast, weather conditions (precipitation anomaly, Nesterov index) are weaker predictors for the 2003 fire event. Our analysis advances the understanding of complex interactions between the atmosphere, vegetation and soil on how feedback mechanisms can lead to extreme fire events. These findings emphasize the importance of a mechanistic coupling of soil thermodynamics, hydrology, and fire activity in earth system models for projecting climate change impacts over the next century.

Changing Weather Extremes Call for Early Warning of Potential for Catastrophic Fire

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boer, Matthias M.; Nolan, Rachael H.; Resco De Dios, Víctor; Clarke, Hamish; Price, Owen F.; Bradstock, Ross A.

2017-12-01

Changing frequencies of extreme weather events and shifting fire seasons call for enhanced capability to forecast where and when forested landscapes switch from a nonflammable (i.e., wet fuel) state to the highly flammable (i.e., dry fuel) state required for catastrophic forest fires. Current forest fire danger indices used in Europe, North America, and Australia rate potential fire behavior by combining numerical indices of fuel moisture content, potential rate of fire spread, and fire intensity. These numerical rating systems lack the physical basis required to reliably quantify forest flammability outside the environments of their development or under novel climate conditions. Here, we argue that exceedance of critical forest flammability thresholds is a prerequisite for major forest fires and therefore early warning systems should be based on a reliable prediction of fuel moisture content plus a regionally calibrated model of how forest fire activity responds to variation in fuel moisture content. We demonstrate the potential of this approach through a case study in Portugal. We use a physically based fuel moisture model with historical weather and fire records to identify critical fuel moisture thresholds for forest fire activity and then show that the catastrophic June 2017 forest fires in central Portugal erupted shortly after fuels in the region dried out to historically unprecedented levels.

Burns and Fire Safety

MedlinePlus

Number of Deaths Death Rate Burns and Fire Safety Fact Sheet (2015) Fatalities • 334 children ages 19 and under died from fires or burns ... burns were ages 4 and under. 1 The death rate for children this age (0.73 per 100, ...

Determine Neuronal Tuning Curves by Exploring Optimum Firing Rate Distribution for Information Efficiency

PubMed Central

Han, Fang; Wang, Zhijie; Fan, Hong

2017-01-01

This paper proposed a new method to determine the neuronal tuning curves for maximum information efficiency by computing the optimum firing rate distribution. Firstly, we proposed a general definition for the information efficiency, which is relevant to mutual information and neuronal energy consumption. The energy consumption is composed of two parts: neuronal basic energy consumption and neuronal spike emission energy consumption. A parameter to model the relative importance of energy consumption is introduced in the definition of the information efficiency. Then, we designed a combination of exponential functions to describe the optimum firing rate distribution based on the analysis of the dependency of the mutual information and the energy consumption on the shape of the functions of the firing rate distributions. Furthermore, we developed a rapid algorithm to search the parameter values of the optimum firing rate distribution function. Finally, we found with the rapid algorithm that a combination of two different exponential functions with two free parameters can describe the optimum firing rate distribution accurately. We also found that if the energy consumption is relatively unimportant (important) compared to the mutual information or the neuronal basic energy consumption is relatively large (small), the curve of the optimum firing rate distribution will be relatively flat (steep), and the corresponding optimum tuning curve exhibits a form of sigmoid if the stimuli distribution is normal. PMID:28270760

An approach of surface coal fire detection from ASTER and Landsat-8 thermal data: Jharia coal field, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roy, Priyom; Guha, Arindam; Kumar, K. Vinod

2015-07-01

Radiant temperature images from thermal remote sensing sensors are used to delineate surface coal fires, by deriving a cut-off temperature to separate coal-fire from non-fire pixels. Temperature contrast of coal fire and background elements (rocks and vegetation etc.) controls this cut-off temperature. This contrast varies across the coal field, as it is influenced by variability of associated rock types, proportion of vegetation cover and intensity of coal fires etc. We have delineated coal fires from background, based on separation in data clusters in maximum v/s mean radiant temperature (13th band of ASTER and 10th band of Landsat-8) scatter-plot, derived using randomly distributed homogeneous pixel-blocks (9 × 9 pixels for ASTER and 27 × 27 pixels for Landsat-8), covering the entire coal bearing geological formation. It is seen that, for both the datasets, overall temperature variability of background and fires can be addressed using this regional cut-off. However, the summer time ASTER data could not delineate fire pixels for one specific mine (Bhulanbararee) as opposed to the winter time Landsat-8 data. The contrast of radiant temperature of fire and background terrain elements, specific to this mine, is different from the regional contrast of fire and background, during summer. This is due to the higher solar heating of background rocky outcrops, thus, reducing their temperature contrast with fire. The specific cut-off temperature determined for this mine, to extract this fire, differs from the regional cut-off. This is derived by reducing the pixel-block size of the temperature data. It is seen that, summer-time ASTER image is useful for fire detection but required additional processing to determine a local threshold, along with the regional threshold to capture all the fires. However, the winter Landsat-8 data was better for fire detection with a regional threshold.

Medium-range fire weather forecasts

Treesearch

J.O. Roads; K. Ueyoshi; S.C. Chen; J. Alpert; F. Fujioka

1991-01-01

The forecast skill of theNational Meteorological Center's medium range forecast (MRF) numerical forecasts of fire weather variables is assessed for the period June 1,1988 to May 31,1990. Near-surface virtual temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and a derived fire weather index (FWI) are forecast well by the MRF model. However, forecast relative humidity has...

Defining fire environment zones in the boreal forests of northeastern China.

PubMed

Wu, Zhiwei; He, Hong S; Yang, Jian; Liang, Yu

2015-06-15

Fire activity in boreal forests will substantially increase with prolonged growing seasons under a warming climate. This trend poses challenges to managing fires in boreal forest landscapes. A fire environment zone map offers a basis for evaluating these fire-related problems and designing more effective fire management plans to improve the allocation of management resources across a landscape. Toward that goal, we identified three fire environment zones across boreal forest landscapes in northeastern China using analytical methods to identify spatial clustering of the environmental variables of climate, vegetation, topography, and human activity. The three fire environment zones were found to be in strong agreement with the spatial distributions of the historical fire data (occurrence, size, and frequency) for 1966-2005. This paper discusses how the resulting fire environment zone map can be used to guide forest fire management and fire regime prediction. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessing accuracy of a probabilistic model for very large fire in the Rocky Mountains: A High Park Fire case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stavros, E.; Abatzoglou, J. T.; Larkin, N.; McKenzie, D.; Steel, A.

2012-12-01

Across the western United States, the largest wildfires account for a major proportion of the area burned and substantially affect mountain forests and their associated ecosystem services, among which is pristine air quality. These fires commandeer national attention and significant fire suppression resources. Despite efforts to understand the influence of fuel loading, climate, and weather on annual area burned, few studies have focused on understanding what abiotic factors enable and drive the very largest wildfires. We investigated the correlation between both antecedent climate and in-situ biophysical variables and very large (>20,000 ha) fires in the western United States from 1984 to 2009. We built logistic regression models, at the spatial scale of the national Geographic Area Coordination Centers (GACCs), to estimate the probability that a given day is conducive to a very large wildfire. Models vary in accuracy and in which variables are the best predictors. In a case study of the conditions of the High Park Fire, neighboring Fort Collins, Colorado, occurring in early summer 2012, we evaluate the predictive accuracy of the Rocky Mountain model.

Fire-related deaths among Aboriginal people in British Columbia, 1991-2001.

PubMed

Gilbert, Mark; Dawar, Meenakshi; Armour, Rosemary

2006-01-01

Fire-related mortality rates are known to be higher in Aboriginal people in BC. The purpose of this study was to describe the epidemiology and context of fire-related deaths in this population. All death registrations attributable to fires in the province were identified by the B.C. Vital Statistics Agency (1991-2001). Age-specific death rates (ASDR) and age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) were calculated for Status Indians and other residents. Data from Coroner's reports from the B.C. Coroners' Service (1997-2001) were used to describe the context of Aboriginal fire-related deaths. The overall fire-related ASMR for Status Indians and other residents were 0.66 deaths and 0.07 deaths/10,000 population respectively. Annual ASMR for both populations were constant over the study period. ASDR were higher in every age category for Status Indians; children and seniors had higher rates in both populations. Twenty-seven Aboriginal fatalities (20 fires) were identified for the contextual analysis. Key findings were: 48% of the total sample had elevated blood alcohol levels; 30% of the fires were caused by lit cigarettes (majority of decedents were intoxicated); 15% of the fires were caused by electric heating sources; at least 34% of fires occurred in homes with absent or non-functional smoke alarms. Fire-related mortality among Aboriginal people in BC is a preventable public health concern. In this population, fire safety and prevention programs should consider improving the prevalence of functioning smoke alarms, promoting the safe use of heat sources, and decreasing smoking behaviours and the use of alcohol.

Detection, mapping and estimation of rate of spread of grass fires from southern African ERTS-1 imagery

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wightman, J. M.

1973-01-01

Sequential band-6 imagery of the Zambesi Basin of southern Africa recorded substantial changes in burn patterns resulting from late dry season grass fires. One example from northern Botswana, indicates that a fire consumed approximately 70 square miles of grassland over a 24-hour period. Another example from western Zambia indicates increased fire activity over a 19-day period. Other examples clearly define the area of widespread grass fires in Angola, Botswana, Rhodesia and Zambia. From the fire patterns visible on the sequential portions of the imagery, and the time intervals involved, the rates of spread of the fires are estimated and compared with estimates derived from experimental burning plots in Zambia and Canada. It is concluded that sequential ERTS-1 imagery, of the quality studied, clearly provides the information needed to detect and map grass fires and to monitor their rates of spread in this region during the late dry season.

Predicting behavior and size of crown fires in the northern Rocky Mountains

Treesearch

Richard C. Rothermel

1991-01-01

Describes methods for approximating behavior and size of a wind-driven crown fire in mountainous terrain. Covers estimation of average rate of spread, energy release from tree crowns and surface fuel, fireline intensity, flame length, and unit area power of the fire and ambient wind. Plume-dominated fires, which may produce unexpectedly fast spread rates even with low...

Forest landowner decisions and the value of information under fire risk.

Treesearch

Gregory S. Amacher; Arun S. Malik; Robert G. Haight

2005-01-01

We estimate the value of three types of information about fire risk to a nonindustrial forest landowner: the relationship between fire arrival rates and stand age, the magnitude of fire arrival rates, and the efficacy of fuel reduction treatment. Our model incorporates planting density and the level and timing of fuel reduction treatment as landowner decisions. These...

The national fire-danger rating system: basic equations

Treesearch

Jack D. Cohen; John E. Deeming

1985-01-01

Updating the National Fire-Danger Rating System (NFDRS) was completed in 1977, and operational use of it was begun the next year. The System provides a guide to wildfire control and suppression by its indexes that measure the relative potential of initiating fires. Such fires do not behave erratically–they spread without spotting through continuous ground fuels....

The theory, direction, and magnitude of ecosystem fire probability as constrained by precipitation and temperature.

PubMed

Guyette, Richard; Stambaugh, Michael C; Dey, Daniel; Muzika, Rose Marie

2017-01-01

The effects of climate on wildland fire confronts society across a range of different ecosystems. Water and temperature affect the combustion dynamics, irrespective of whether those are associated with carbon fueled motors or ecosystems, but through different chemical, physical, and biological processes. We use an ecosystem combustion equation developed with the physical chemistry of atmospheric variables to estimate and simulate fire probability and mean fire interval (MFI). The calibration of ecosystem fire probability with basic combustion chemistry and physics offers a quantitative method to address wildland fire in addition to the well-studied forcing factors such as topography, ignition, and vegetation. We develop a graphic analysis tool for estimating climate forced fire probability with temperature and precipitation based on an empirical assessment of combustion theory and fire prediction in ecosystems. Climate-affected fire probability for any period, past or future, is estimated with given temperature and precipitation. A graphic analyses of wildland fire dynamics driven by climate supports a dialectic in hydrologic processes that affect ecosystem combustion: 1) the water needed by plants to produce carbon bonds (fuel) and 2) the inhibition of successful reactant collisions by water molecules (humidity and fuel moisture). These two postulates enable a classification scheme for ecosystems into three or more climate categories using their position relative to change points defined by precipitation in combustion dynamics equations. Three classifications of combustion dynamics in ecosystems fire probability include: 1) precipitation insensitive, 2) precipitation unstable, and 3) precipitation sensitive. All three classifications interact in different ways with variable levels of temperature.

The theory, direction, and magnitude of ecosystem fire probability as constrained by precipitation and temperature

PubMed Central

Guyette, Richard; Stambaugh, Michael C.; Dey, Daniel

2017-01-01

The effects of climate on wildland fire confronts society across a range of different ecosystems. Water and temperature affect the combustion dynamics, irrespective of whether those are associated with carbon fueled motors or ecosystems, but through different chemical, physical, and biological processes. We use an ecosystem combustion equation developed with the physical chemistry of atmospheric variables to estimate and simulate fire probability and mean fire interval (MFI). The calibration of ecosystem fire probability with basic combustion chemistry and physics offers a quantitative method to address wildland fire in addition to the well-studied forcing factors such as topography, ignition, and vegetation. We develop a graphic analysis tool for estimating climate forced fire probability with temperature and precipitation based on an empirical assessment of combustion theory and fire prediction in ecosystems. Climate-affected fire probability for any period, past or future, is estimated with given temperature and precipitation. A graphic analyses of wildland fire dynamics driven by climate supports a dialectic in hydrologic processes that affect ecosystem combustion: 1) the water needed by plants to produce carbon bonds (fuel) and 2) the inhibition of successful reactant collisions by water molecules (humidity and fuel moisture). These two postulates enable a classification scheme for ecosystems into three or more climate categories using their position relative to change points defined by precipitation in combustion dynamics equations. Three classifications of combustion dynamics in ecosystems fire probability include: 1) precipitation insensitive, 2) precipitation unstable, and 3) precipitation sensitive. All three classifications interact in different ways with variable levels of temperature. PMID:28704457

Effect of fusimotor stimulation on Ia discharge during shortening of cat soleus muscle at different speeds

PubMed Central

Appenteng, K.; Prochazka, A.; Proske, U.; Wand, P.

1982-01-01

1. In barbiturate-anaesthetized cats, the L7 and S1 dorsal and ventral roots were dissected to isolate functionally single afferents identified as primary endings of soleus muscle spindles, and motor filaments which exerted a fusimotor action on the afferents with limited action on extrafusal muscle. Up to seven filaments, with an action on a given primary ending, could be isolated and each was classified as exerting either a predominantly dynamic or static action. 2. Combined stimulation of these filaments, at rates up to 200 impulses/s could maintain afferent firing during muscle shortenings at speeds up to 200 mm/s. 3. Fusimotor stimulation could also maintain afferent firing at a target frequency of 100 impulses/s during muscle shortenings up to 200 mm/s. The timing, in relation to the onset of shortening, and the rates of fusimotor stimulation were found to be critical in achieving the target frequency. 4. Sinusoidal modulation of the frequency of fusimotor stimulation was used to study the conditions required to achieve constant afferent firing in the face of imposed sinusoidal length changes. 5. For given depths of modulation, the phase advance of fusimotor stimulation needed to produce minimum modulation of afferent firing (best compensation) increased with increasing frequency of the sinusoids. The compensation deteriorated with an increase in the frequency of the sinusoids and a change in the mean muscle lengths, although in some cases it could be restored by adjustments to the depth of modulation of fusimotor rate. This suggests that for movements of varying speeds and amplitudes, settings which are appropriate for shortening at a given velocity and mean muscle length, do not apply if either of these two variables are altered. 6. These findings demonstrate that the fusimotor system is potentially capable of eliciting constant afferent firing as envisaged in the `servo-assistance' hypothesis (Matthews, 1964, 1972; Stein, 1974). This, and the fact that constant afferent firing is not seen during normal unobstructed shortenings at velocities greater than 0·2 resting length/s (Prochazka, 1981), are used to argue that it is by choice rather than necessity that `servo-assistance' (as defined above) is not employed during normal movements. However, servo-assistance of a different form (involving modulated spindle afferent feed-back from both agonists and antagonists) remains a viable alternative. PMID:6216336

A Coupled Model for Simulating Future Wildfire Regimes in the Western U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bart, R. R.; Kennedy, M. C.; Tague, C.; Hanan, E. J.

2017-12-01

Higher temperatures and larger fuel loads in the western U.S. have increased the size and intensity of wildfires over the past decades. However, it is unclear if this trend will continue over the long-term since increased wildfire activity has the countering effect of reducing landscape fuel loads, while higher temperatures alter the rate of vegetation recovery following fire. In this study, we introduce a coupled ecohydrologic-fire model for investigating how changes in vegetation, forest management, climate, and hydrology may affect future fire regimes. The spatially-distributed ecohydrologic model, RHESSys, simulates hydrologic, carbon and nutrient fluxes at watershed scales; the fire-spread model, WMFire, stochastically propagates fire on a landscape based on conditions in the ecohydrologic model. We use the coupled model to replicate fire return intervals in multiple ecoregions within the western U.S., including the southern Sierra Nevada and southern California. We also examine the sensitivity of fire return intervals to various model processes, including litter production, fire severity, and post-fire vegetation recovery rates. Results indicate that the coupled model is able to replicate expected fire return intervals in the selected locations. Fire return intervals were highly sensitive to the rate of vegetation growth, with longer fire return intervals associated with slower growing vegetation. Application of the model is expected to aid in our understanding of how fuel treatments, climate change and droughts may affect future fire regimes.

Canadian and Siberian Boreal Fire Activity during ARCTAS Spring and Summer Phases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stocks, B. J.; Fromm, M. D.; Soja, A. J.; Servranckx, R.; Lindsey, D.; Hyer, E.

2009-12-01

The summer phase of ARCTAS (Arctic Research of the Composition of the Troposphere from Aircraft and Satellites) was designed specifically around forest fire activity in the Canadian boreal forest, and located in areas of northern Canada where summer forest fires are ubiquitous. Lightning fires are most often allowed to burn naturally in these regions, and a number of large free-burning fires in northern Saskatchewan in late June/early July 2008 provided excellent targets during the summer phase of ARCTAS. Smoke generated by a large number of early spring fires in Kazakhstan and southern Siberia unexpectedly made a significant contribution to arctic haze during the Alaska-based spring phase of ARCTAS, Numerous smoke plumes were sampled during the spring phase of ARCTAS, creating interest in the origin and characteristics of the fires in the source regions of East Asia. This presentation is designed to connect aircraft and satellite smoke chemistry/transport measurements with ground-based measurements of fire activity during the spring and summer phases of ARCTAS. The Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS) is used to determine forest fire danger conditions in regions of fire activity, and these measurements are in turn used to project fire behavior characteristics. Fuel consumption, spread rates, and frontal fire intensity are calculated using the CFFDRS. Energy release rates at ground level are related to convection/smoke column development and smoke injection heights.

Medieval warming initiated exceptionally large wildfire outbreaks in the Rocky Mountains

PubMed Central

Calder, W. John; Parker, Dusty; Stopka, Cody J.; Jiménez-Moreno, Gonzalo; Shuman, Bryan N.

2015-01-01

Many of the largest wildfires in US history burned in recent decades, and climate change explains much of the increase in area burned. The frequency of extreme wildfire weather will increase with continued warming, but many uncertainties still exist about future fire regimes, including how the risk of large fires will persist as vegetation changes. Past fire-climate relationships provide an opportunity to constrain the related uncertainties, and reveal widespread burning across large regions of western North America during past warm intervals. Whether such episodes also burned large portions of individual landscapes has been difficult to determine, however, because uncertainties with the ages of past fires and limited spatial resolution often prohibit specific estimates of past area burned. Accounting for these challenges in a subalpine landscape in Colorado, we estimated century-scale fire synchroneity across 12 lake-sediment charcoal records spanning the past 2,000 y. The percentage of sites burned only deviated from the historic range of variability during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) between 1,200 and 850 y B.P., when temperatures were similar to recent decades. Between 1,130 and 1,030 y B.P., 83% (median estimate) of our sites burned when temperatures increased ∼0.5 °C relative to the preceding centuries. Lake-based fire rotation during the MCA decreased to an estimated 120 y, representing a 260% higher rate of burning than during the period of dendroecological sampling (360 to −60 y B.P.). Increased burning, however, did not persist throughout the MCA. Burning declined abruptly before temperatures cooled, indicating possible fuel limitations to continued burning. PMID:26438834

New aspects of firing pattern autocontrol in oxytocin and vasopressin neurones.

PubMed

Moos, F; Gouzènes, L; Brown, D; Dayanithi, G; Sabatier, N; Boissin, L; Rabié, A; Richard, P

1998-01-01

In the rat, oxytocin (OT) and vasopressin (AVP) neurones exhibit specific electrical activities which are controlled by OT and AVP released from soma and dendrites within the magnocellular hypothalamic nuclei. OT enhances amplitude and frequency of suckling-induced bursts, and changes basal firing characteristics: spike patterning becomes very irregular (spike clusters separated by long silences), firing rate is highly variable, oscillating before facilitated bursts. This unstable behaviour which markedly decreases during hyperosmotic stimulation (interrupting bursting) could be a prerequisite for bursting. The effects of AVP depend on the initial phasic pattern of AVP neurones: AVP excites weakly active neurones (increasing burst duration, decreasing silences) and inhibits highly active neurones; neurones with intermediate phasic activity are unaffected. Thus, AVP ensures all AVP neurones discharge with moderate phasic activity (bursts and silences lasting 20-40 s), known to optimise systemic AVP release. V1a-type receptors are involved in AVP actions. In conclusion, OT and AVP control their respective neurones in a complex manner to favour the patterns of activity which are the best suited for an efficient systemic hormone release.

From Spiking Neuron Models to Linear-Nonlinear Models

PubMed Central

Ostojic, Srdjan; Brunel, Nicolas

2011-01-01

Neurons transform time-varying inputs into action potentials emitted stochastically at a time dependent rate. The mapping from current input to output firing rate is often represented with the help of phenomenological models such as the linear-nonlinear (LN) cascade, in which the output firing rate is estimated by applying to the input successively a linear temporal filter and a static non-linear transformation. These simplified models leave out the biophysical details of action potential generation. It is not a priori clear to which extent the input-output mapping of biophysically more realistic, spiking neuron models can be reduced to a simple linear-nonlinear cascade. Here we investigate this question for the leaky integrate-and-fire (LIF), exponential integrate-and-fire (EIF) and conductance-based Wang-Buzsáki models in presence of background synaptic activity. We exploit available analytic results for these models to determine the corresponding linear filter and static non-linearity in a parameter-free form. We show that the obtained functions are identical to the linear filter and static non-linearity determined using standard reverse correlation analysis. We then quantitatively compare the output of the corresponding linear-nonlinear cascade with numerical simulations of spiking neurons, systematically varying the parameters of input signal and background noise. We find that the LN cascade provides accurate estimates of the firing rates of spiking neurons in most of parameter space. For the EIF and Wang-Buzsáki models, we show that the LN cascade can be reduced to a firing rate model, the timescale of which we determine analytically. Finally we introduce an adaptive timescale rate model in which the timescale of the linear filter depends on the instantaneous firing rate. This model leads to highly accurate estimates of instantaneous firing rates. PMID:21283777

From spiking neuron models to linear-nonlinear models.

PubMed

Ostojic, Srdjan; Brunel, Nicolas

2011-01-20

Neurons transform time-varying inputs into action potentials emitted stochastically at a time dependent rate. The mapping from current input to output firing rate is often represented with the help of phenomenological models such as the linear-nonlinear (LN) cascade, in which the output firing rate is estimated by applying to the input successively a linear temporal filter and a static non-linear transformation. These simplified models leave out the biophysical details of action potential generation. It is not a priori clear to which extent the input-output mapping of biophysically more realistic, spiking neuron models can be reduced to a simple linear-nonlinear cascade. Here we investigate this question for the leaky integrate-and-fire (LIF), exponential integrate-and-fire (EIF) and conductance-based Wang-Buzsáki models in presence of background synaptic activity. We exploit available analytic results for these models to determine the corresponding linear filter and static non-linearity in a parameter-free form. We show that the obtained functions are identical to the linear filter and static non-linearity determined using standard reverse correlation analysis. We then quantitatively compare the output of the corresponding linear-nonlinear cascade with numerical simulations of spiking neurons, systematically varying the parameters of input signal and background noise. We find that the LN cascade provides accurate estimates of the firing rates of spiking neurons in most of parameter space. For the EIF and Wang-Buzsáki models, we show that the LN cascade can be reduced to a firing rate model, the timescale of which we determine analytically. Finally we introduce an adaptive timescale rate model in which the timescale of the linear filter depends on the instantaneous firing rate. This model leads to highly accurate estimates of instantaneous firing rates.

The National Fire Danger Rating System: Derivation of Spread Index for Eastern and Southern States

Treesearch

Ralph M. Nelson

1964-01-01

Presents standards for locating, operating, and maintaining forest fire danger stations in Eastern and Southern States. Includes tables and forms for deriving the Spread Index of the new National Fire-Danger Rating System.

Efficient Forest Fire Detection Index for Application in Unmanned Aerial Systems (UASs).

PubMed

Cruz, Henry; Eckert, Martina; Meneses, Juan; Martínez, José-Fernán

2016-06-16

This article proposes a novel method for detecting forest fires, through the use of a new color index, called the Forest Fire Detection Index (FFDI), developed by the authors. The index is based on methods for vegetation classification and has been adapted to detect the tonalities of flames and smoke; the latter could be included adaptively into the Regions of Interest (RoIs) with the help of a variable factor. Multiple tests have been performed upon database imagery and present promising results: a detection precision of 96.82% has been achieved for image sizes of 960 × 540 pixels at a processing time of 0.0447 seconds. This achievement would lead to a performance of 22 f/s, for smaller images, while up to 54 f/s could be reached by maintaining a similar detection precision. Additional tests have been performed on fires in their early stages, achieving a precision rate of p = 96.62%. The method could be used in real-time in Unmanned Aerial Systems (UASs), with the aim of monitoring a wider area than through fixed surveillance systems. Thus, it would result in more cost-effective outcomes than conventional systems implemented in helicopters or satellites. UASs could also reach inaccessible locations without jeopardizing people's safety. On-going work includes implementation into a commercially available drone.

Theoretical evaluation of burns to the human respiratory tract due to inhalation of hot gas in the early stage of fires.

PubMed

Lv, Yong-Gang; Liu, Jing; Zhang, Jun

2006-06-01

A transient two-dimensional mathematical model for heat and water vapor transport across the respiratory tract of human body was established and applied to predict the thermal impact of inhaled hot gas to the nasal tissues during the early stage of fires. Influences of individual's physiological status and environment variables were comprehensively investigated through numerical calculations. Burn evaluation was performed using the classical Henriques model to predict the time for thermal injury to occur. It was shown that decreasing the air velocity and increasing the respiratory rate is helpful to minimize the burn over the respiratory tract. The effect of relative humidity of surrounding dry hot air could be ignored in predicting burns for short duration exposures. Due to evaporation cooling on the mucousal membrane, the burn often occurs at certain positions underneath the skin of the tract near the inlet of the respiratory tract. Most of the tissues near the surface suffer injury immediately after exposure to fire, while in the deeper tissues, serious damage occurs after a relatively longer time period. The method presented in this paper may suggest a valuable approach to theoretically evaluate the injury of hot air to the human respiratory tract under various fire situations.

Short term spatio-temporal variability of soil water-extractable calcium and magnesium after a low severity grassland fire in Lithuania.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pereira, Paulo; Martin, David

2014-05-01

Fire has important impacts on soil nutrient spatio-temporal distribution (Outeiro et al., 2008). This impact depends on fire severity, topography of the burned area, type of soil and vegetation affected, and the meteorological conditions post-fire. Fire produces a complex mosaic of impacts in soil that can be extremely variable at small plot scale in the space and time. In order to assess and map such a heterogeneous distribution, the test of interpolation methods is fundamental to identify the best estimator and to have a better understanding of soil nutrients spatial distribution. The objective of this work is to identify the short-term spatial variability of water-extractable calcium and magnesium after a low severity grassland fire. The studied area is located near Vilnius (Lithuania) at 54° 42' N, 25° 08 E, 158 masl. Four days after the fire, it was designed in a burned area a plot with 400 m2 (20 x 20 m with 5 m space between sampling points). Twenty five samples from top soil (0-5 cm) were collected immediately after the fire (IAF), 2, 5, 7 and 9 months after the fire (a total of 125 in all sampling dates). The original data of water-extractable calcium and magnesium did not respected the Gaussian distribution, thus a neperian logarithm (ln) was applied in order to normalize data. Significant differences of water-extractable calcium and magnesium among sampling dates were carried out with the Anova One-way test using the ln data. In order to assess the spatial variability of water-extractable calcium and magnesium, we tested several interpolation methods as Ordinary Kriging (OK), Inverse Distance to a Weight (IDW) with the power of 1, 2, 3 and 4, Radial Basis Functions (RBF) - Inverse Multiquadratic (IMT), Multilog (MTG), Multiquadratic (MTQ) Natural Cubic Spline (NCS) and Thin Plate Spline (TPS) - and Local Polynomial (LP) with the power of 1 and 2. Interpolation tests were carried out with Ln data. The best interpolation method was assessed using the cross validation method. Cross-validation was obtained by taking each observation in turn out of the sample pool and estimating from the remaining ones. The errors produced (observed-predicted) are used to evaluate the performance of each method. With these data, the mean error (ME) and root mean square error (RMSE) were calculated. The best method was the one which had the lower RMSE (Pereira et al. in press). The results shown significant differences among sampling dates in the water-extractable calcium (F= 138.78, p< 0.001) and extractable magnesium (F= 160.66; p< 0.001). Water-extractable calcium and magnesium was high IAF decreasing until 7 months after the fire, rising in the last sampling date. Among the tested methods, the most accurate to interpolate the water-extractable calcium were: IAF-IDW1; 2 Months-IDW1; 5 months-OK; 7 Months-IDW4 and 9 Months-IDW3. In relation to water-extractable magnesium the best interpolation techniques were: IAF-IDW2; 2 Months-IDW1; 5 months- IDW3; 7 Months-TPS and 9 Months-IDW1. These results suggested that the spatial variability of these water-extractable is variable with the time. The causes of this variability will be discussed during the presentation. References Outeiro, L., Aspero, F., Ubeda, X. (2008) Geostatistical methods to study spatial variability of soil cation after a prescribed fire and rainfall. Catena, 74: 310-320. Pereira, P., Cerdà, A., Úbeda, X., Mataix-Solera, J. Arcenegui, V., Zavala, L. Modelling the impacts of wildfire on ash thickness in a short-term period, Land Degradation and Development, (In Press), DOI: 10.1002/ldr.2195

An Evaluation of Fuel-Reduction Treatments Across a Landscape Gradient in Piedmont Forests: Preliminary Results of the National Fire and Fire Surrogate Study

Treesearch

Thomas A. Waldrop; Dallas W. Glass; Sandra Rideout; Victor B. Shelburne

2004-01-01

The National Fire and Fire Surrogate (NFFS) Study is a large-scale study of the impacts of fuel-reduction treatments on ecological and economic variables. This paper examines prescribed burning and thinning as fuel-reduction treatments on one site of the national study, the southeastern Piedmont. Fuel loads were examined across a landscape gradient before and after...

Life-history traits predict perennial species response to fire in a desert ecosystem

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shryock, Daniel F.; DeFalco, Lesley A.; Esque, Todd C.

2014-01-01

The Mojave Desert of North America has become fire-prone in recent decades due to invasive annual grasses that fuel wildfires following years of high rainfall. Perennial species are poorly adapted to fire in this system, and post-fire shifts in species composition have been substantial but variable across community types. To generalize across a range of conditions, we investigated whether simple life-history traits could predict how species responded to fire. Further, we classified species into plant functional types (PFTs) based on combinations of life-history traits and evaluated whether these groups exhibited a consistent fire-response. Six life-history traits varied significantly between burned and unburned areas in short (up to 4 years) or long-term (up to 52 years) post-fire datasets, including growth form, lifespan, seed size, seed dispersal, height, and leaf longevity. Forbs and grasses consistently increased in abundance after fire, while cacti were reduced and woody species exhibited a variable response. Woody species were classified into three PFTs based on combinations of life-history traits. Species in Group 1 increased in abundance after fire and were characterized by short lifespans, small, wind-dispersed seeds, low height, and deciduous leaves. Species in Group 2 were reduced by fire and distinguished from Group 1 by longer lifespans and evergreen leaves. Group 3 species, which also decreased after fire, were characterized by long lifespans, large non-wind dispersed seeds, and taller heights. Our results show that PFTs based on life-history traits can reliably predict the responses of most species to fire in the Mojave Desert. Dominant, long-lived species of this region possess a combination of traits limiting their ability to recover, presenting a clear example of how a novel disturbance regime may shift selective environmental pressures to favor alternative life-history strategies.

Social and Biophysical Predictors of Public Perceptions of Extreme Fires

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hall, T. E.; Kooistra, C. M.; Paveglio, T.; Gress, S.; Smith, A. M.

2013-12-01

To date, what constitutes an 'extreme' fire has been approached separately by biophysical and social scientists. Research on the biophysical characteristics of fires has identified potential dimensions of extremity, including fire size and vegetation mortality. On the social side, factors such as the degree of immediate impact to one's life and property or the extent of social disruption in the community contribute to a perception of extremity. However, some biophysical characteristics may also contribute to perceptions of extremity, including number of simultaneous ignitions, rapidity of fire spread, atypical fire behavior, and intensity of smoke. Perceptions of these impacts can vary within and across communities, but no studies to date have investigated such perceptions in a comprehensive way. In this study, we address the question, to what extent is the magnitude of impact of fires on WUI residents' well-being explained by measurable biophysical characteristics of the fire and subjective evaluations of the personal and community-level impacts of the fire? We bring together diverse strands of psychological theory, including landscape perception, mental models, risk perception, and community studies. The majority of social science research on fires has been in the form of qualitative case studies, and our study is methodologically unique by using a nested design (hierarchical modeling) to enable generalizable conclusions across a wide range of fires and human communities. We identified fires that burned in 2011 or 2012 in the northern Rocky Mountain region that were at least 1,000 acres and that intersected (within 15 km) urban clusters or identified Census places. For fires where an adequately large number of households was located in proximity to the fire, we drew random samples of approximately 150 individuals for each fire. We used a hybrid internet (Qualtrics) and mail survey, following the Dillman method, to measure individual perceptions. We developed two composite dependent variables: (1) subjective perceptions of the atypicality of the fire; and (2) perceptions of the fire's impact to individual and community well-being. The impact measures were adapted from the hazards and disasters literature and used a multi-item measure of emotional response during and immediately after the fire. Independent variables included both biophysical characteristics of each fire (such as size, duration, and burn severity), obtained from remotely sensed imagery, and perceptual variables measured in the survey. All measures were pilot tested for adequate psychometric properties using a sample of 150 individuals from an on-line panel who had been affected by a wildfire within the past two years. Factor analysis techniques will be used to reduce the data to latent constructs for use in regression modeling. Hierarchical linear modeling will be used to identify factors predicting the impact of fires on individuals (level 1) and whether those factors differ by fire (level 2). Our study provides a unique interdisciplinary perspective on extreme disturbance events, and findings will help land managers and community leaders anticipate how individuals may respond to future fires, as well as how to ameliorate the negative impacts of those fires.

Relation between the National Fire Danger spread component and fire activity in the Lake States.

Treesearch

Donald A. Haines; William A. Main; Von J. Johnson

1970-01-01

Relationships between the 1964 version of the spread component of the National Fire Danger Rating System and fire activity were established for Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. The measures of fire activity included the probability of a fire-day as well as a C, D, or E fire-day, number of fires per fire-day, and acres burned per fire. These measures were examined by...

Biomass burning aerosol over Romania using dispersion model and Calipso data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicolae, Victor; Dandocsi, Alexandru; Marmureanu, Luminita; Talianu, Camelia

2018-04-01

The purpose of the study is to analyze the seasonal variability, for the hot and cold seasons, of biomass burning aerosol observed over Romania using forward dispersion calculations based on FLEXPART model. The model was set up to use as input the MODIS fire data with a degree of confidence over 25% after transforming the emitted power in emission rate. The modelled aerosols in this setup was black carbon coated by organics. Distribution in the upper layers were compared to Calipso retrieval.