Wind resource quality affected by high levels of renewables

DOE PAGES

Diakov, Victor

2015-06-17

For solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind resources, the capacity factor is an important parameter describing the quality of the resource. As the share of variable renewable resources (such as PV and wind) on the electric system is increasing, so does curtailment (and the fraction of time when it cannot be avoided). At high levels of renewable generation, curtailments effectively change the practical measure of resource quality from capacity factor to the incremental capacity factor. The latter accounts only for generation during hours of no curtailment and is directly connected with the marginal capital cost of renewable generators for a givenmore » level of renewable generation during the year. The Western U.S. wind generation is analyzed hourly for a system with 75% of annual generation from wind, and it is found that the value for the system of resources with equal capacity factors can vary by a factor of 2, which highlights the importance of using the incremental capacity factor instead. Finally, the effect is expected to be more pronounced in smaller geographic areas (or when transmission limitations imposed) and less pronounced at lower levels of renewable energy in the system with less curtailment.« less

Asynchrony of wind and hydropower resources in Australia.

PubMed

Gunturu, Udaya Bhaskar; Hallgren, Willow

2017-08-18

Wind and hydropower together constitute nearly 80% of the renewable capacity in Australia and their resources are collocated. We show that wind and hydro generation capacity factors covary negatively at the interannual time scales. Thus, the technology diversity mitigates the variability of renewable power generation at the interannual scales. The asynchrony of wind and hydropower resources is explained by the differential impact of the two modes of the El Ni˜no Southern Oscillation - canonical and Modoki - on the wind and hydro resources. Also, the Modoki El Ni˜no and the Modoki La Ni˜na phases have greater impact. The seasonal impact patterns corroborate these results. As the proportion of wind power increases in Australia's energy mix, this negative covariation has implications for storage capacity of excess wind generation at short time scales and for generation system adequacy at the longer time scales.

Boosting CSP Production with Thermal Energy Storage

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Denholm, P.; Mehos, M.

2012-06-01

Combining concentrating solar power (CSP) with thermal energy storage shows promise for increasing grid flexibility by providing firm system capacity with a high ramp rate and acceptable part-load operation. When backed by energy storage capability, CSP can supplement photovoltaics by adding generation from solar resources during periods of low solar insolation. The falling cost of solar photovoltaic (PV) - generated electricity has led to a rapid increase in the deployment of PV and projections that PV could play a significant role in the future U.S. electric sector. The solar resource itself is virtually unlimited; however, the actual contribution of PVmore » electricity is limited by several factors related to the current grid. The first is the limited coincidence between the solar resource and normal electricity demand patterns. The second is the limited flexibility of conventional generators to accommodate this highly variable generation resource. At high penetration of solar generation, increased grid flexibility will be needed to fully utilize the variable and uncertain output from PV generation and to shift energy production to periods of high demand or reduced solar output. Energy storage is one way to increase grid flexibility, and many storage options are available or under development. In this article, however, we consider a technology already beginning to be used at scale - thermal energy storage (TES) deployed with concentrating solar power (CSP). PV and CSP are both deployable in areas of high direct normal irradiance such as the U.S. Southwest. The role of these two technologies is dependent on their costs and relative value, including how their value to the grid changes as a function of what percentage of total generation they contribute to the grid, and how they may actually work together to increase overall usefulness of the solar resource. Both PV and CSP use solar energy to generate electricity. A key difference is the ability of CSP to utilize high-efficiency TES, which turns CSP into a partially dispatchable resource. The addition of TES produces additional value by shifting the delivery of solar energy to periods of peak demand, providing firm capacity and ancillary services, and reducing integration challenges. Given the dispatchability of CSP enabled by TES, it is possible that PV and CSP are at least partially complementary. The dispatchability of CSP with TES can enable higher overall penetration of the grid by solar energy by providing solar-generated electricity during periods of cloudy weather or at night, when PV-generated power is unavailable. Such systems also have the potential to improve grid flexibility, thereby enabling greater penetration of PV energy (and other variable generation sources such as wind) than if PV were deployed without CSP.« less

Role of Concentrating Solar Power in Integrating Solar and Wind Energy: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Denholm, P.; Mehos, M.

2015-06-03

As wind and solar photovoltaics (PV) increase in penetration it is increasingly important to examine enabling technologies that can help integrate these resources at large scale. Concentrating solar power (CSP) when deployed with thermal energy storage (TES) can provide multiple services that can help integrate variable generation (VG) resources such as wind and PV. CSP with TES can provide firm, highly flexible capacity, reducing minimum generation constraints which limit penetration and results in curtailment. By acting as an enabling technology, CSP can complement PV and wind, substantially increasing their penetration in locations with adequate solar resource.

Demand Response and Energy Storage Integration Study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ma, Ookie; Cheung, Kerry; Olsen, Daniel J.

2016-03-01

Demand response and energy storage resources present potentially important sources of bulk power system services that can aid in integrating variable renewable generation. While renewable integration studies have evaluated many of the challenges associated with deploying large amounts of variable wind and solar generation technologies, integration analyses have not yet fully incorporated demand response and energy storage resources. This report represents an initial effort in analyzing the potential integration value of demand response and energy storage, focusing on the western United States. It evaluates two major aspects of increased deployment of demand response and energy storage: (1) Their operational valuemore » in providing bulk power system services and (2) Market and regulatory issues, including potential barriers to deployment.« less

Demand Response and Energy Storage Integration Study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ma, Ookie; Cheung, Kerry

Demand response and energy storage resources present potentially important sources of bulk power system services that can aid in integrating variable renewable generation. While renewable integration studies have evaluated many of the challenges associated with deploying large amounts of variable wind and solar generation technologies, integration analyses have not yet fully incorporated demand response and energy storage resources. This report represents an initial effort in analyzing the potential integration value of demand response and energy storage, focusing on the western United States. It evaluates two major aspects of increased deployment of demand response and energy storage: (1) Their operational valuemore » in providing bulk power system services and (2) Market and regulatory issues, including potential barriers to deployment.« less

Hydropower Modeling Challenges

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stoll, Brady; Andrade, Juan; Cohen, Stuart

Hydropower facilities are important assets for the electric power sector and represent a key source of flexibility for electric grids with large amounts of variable generation. As variable renewable generation sources expand, understanding the capabilities and limitations of the flexibility from hydropower resources is important for grid planning. Appropriately modeling these resources, however, is difficult because of the wide variety of constraints these plants face that other generators do not. These constraints can be broadly categorized as environmental, operational, and regulatory. This report highlights several key issues involving incorporating these constraints when modeling hydropower operations in terms of production costmore » and capacity expansion. Many of these challenges involve a lack of data to adequately represent the constraints or issues of model complexity and run time. We present several potential methods for improving the accuracy of hydropower representation in these models to allow for a better understanding of hydropower's capabilities.« less

8760-Based Method for Representing Variable Generation Capacity Value in Capacity Expansion Models: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Frew, Bethany A; Cole, Wesley J; Sun, Yinong

Capacity expansion models (CEMs) are widely used to evaluate the least-cost portfolio of electricity generators, transmission, and storage needed to reliably serve demand over the evolution of many years or decades. Various CEM formulations are used to evaluate systems ranging in scale from states or utility service territories to national or multi-national systems. CEMs can be computationally complex, and to achieve acceptable solve times, key parameters are often estimated using simplified methods. In this paper, we focus on two of these key parameters associated with the integration of variable generation (VG) resources: capacity value and curtailment. We first discuss commonmore » modeling simplifications used in CEMs to estimate capacity value and curtailment, many of which are based on a representative subset of hours that can miss important tail events or which require assumptions about the load and resource distributions that may not match actual distributions. We then present an alternate approach that captures key elements of chronological operation over all hours of the year without the computationally intensive economic dispatch optimization typically employed within more detailed operational models. The updated methodology characterizes the (1) contribution of VG to system capacity during high load and net load hours, (2) the curtailment level of VG, and (3) the potential reductions in curtailments enabled through deployment of storage and more flexible operation of select thermal generators. We apply this alternate methodology to an existing CEM, the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS). Results demonstrate that this alternate approach provides more accurate estimates of capacity value and curtailments by explicitly capturing system interactions across all hours of the year. This approach could be applied more broadly to CEMs at many different scales where hourly resource and load data is available, greatly improving the representation of challenges associate with integration of variable generation resources.« less

Wisconsin's forest resources, 2005

Treesearch

Charles, H. (Hobie) Perry; Gary J. Brand

2006-01-01

The annual forest inventory of Wisconsin continues, and this document reports 2001-05 moving averages for most variables and comparisons between 2000 and 2005 for growth, removals, and mortality. Summary resource tables can be generated through the Forest Inventory Mapmaker website at http://ncrs2.fs.fed.us/4801/fiadb/index. htm. Estimates from this inventory show a...

Psychological Resources as Stress Buffers: Their Relationship to University Students' Anxiety and Depression

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McCarthy, Christopher J.; Fouladi, Rachel T.; Juncker, Brian D.; Matheny, Kenneth B.

2006-01-01

The association of protective resources, personality variables, life events, and gender with anxiety and depression was examined with university students. Building on regression analyses, a structural equation model was generated with good fit, indicating that with respect to both anxiety and depression, negative life events and coping resources…

76 FR 3625 - Sunshine Act Meeting Notice

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-01-20

... Integration of Variable Renewable Generation. ELECTRIC E-1 RM04-7-009 Market-Based Rates for Wholesale Sales of Electric Energy, Capacity and Ancillary Services by Public Utilities. E-2 RM10-20-000 Market-Based..., Eagle Creek Water Resources, LLC, Eagle Creek Land Resources, LLC. CERTIFICATES C-1 CP10-496-000 Cameron...

Optimal allocation of testing resources for statistical simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quintana, Carolina; Millwater, Harry R.; Singh, Gulshan; Golden, Patrick

2015-07-01

Statistical estimates from simulation involve uncertainty caused by the variability in the input random variables due to limited data. Allocating resources to obtain more experimental data of the input variables to better characterize their probability distributions can reduce the variance of statistical estimates. The methodology proposed determines the optimal number of additional experiments required to minimize the variance of the output moments given single or multiple constraints. The method uses multivariate t-distribution and Wishart distribution to generate realizations of the population mean and covariance of the input variables, respectively, given an amount of available data. This method handles independent and correlated random variables. A particle swarm method is used for the optimization. The optimal number of additional experiments per variable depends on the number and variance of the initial data, the influence of the variable in the output function and the cost of each additional experiment. The methodology is demonstrated using a fretting fatigue example.

Review of Variable Generation Integration Charges

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Porter, K.; Fink, S.; Buckley, M.

2013-03-01

The growth of wind and solar generation in the United States, and the expectation of continued growth of these technologies, dictates that the future power system will be operated in a somewhat different manner because of increased variability and uncertainty. A small number of balancing authorities have attempted to determine an 'integration cost' to account for these changes to their current operating practices. Some balancing authorities directly charge wind and solar generators for integration charges, whereas others add integration charges to projected costs of wind and solar in integrated resource plans or in competitive solicitations for generation. This report reviewsmore » the balancing authorities that have calculated variable generation integration charges and broadly compares and contrasts the methodologies they used to determine their specific integration charges. The report also profiles each balancing authority and how they derived wind and solar integration charges.« less

Variable Renewable Energy in Long-Term Planning Models: A Multi-Model Perspective

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cole, Wesley; Frew, Bethany; Mai, Trieu

Long-term capacity expansion models of the U.S. electricity sector have long been used to inform electric sector stakeholders and decision-makers. With the recent surge in variable renewable energy (VRE) generators — primarily wind and solar photovoltaics — the need to appropriately represent VRE generators in these long-term models has increased. VRE generators are especially difficult to represent for a variety of reasons, including their variability, uncertainty, and spatial diversity. This report summarizes the analyses and model experiments that were conducted as part of two workshops on modeling VRE for national-scale capacity expansion models. It discusses the various methods for treatingmore » VRE among four modeling teams from the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). The report reviews the findings from the two workshops and emphasizes the areas where there is still need for additional research and development on analysis tools to incorporate VRE into long-term planning and decision-making. This research is intended to inform the energy modeling community on the modeling of variable renewable resources, and is not intended to advocate for or against any particular energy technologies, resources, or policies.« less

Grid Integration | Water Power | NREL

Science.gov Websites

deployment planning and commercialization process. Variable and weather-dependent resources can create /generation balancing, and planning for reserves. NREL has conducted extensive in-depth wind and solar

Developing a Multigenerational Creativity Website for Gifted and Talented Learners.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Montgomery, Diane; Overton, Robert; Bull, Kay S.; Kimball, Sarah; Griffin, John

This paper discusses techniques and resources to use to stimulate creativity through a web site for several "generations" of gifted and talented learners. To organize a web site to stimulate creativity, two categories of development issues must be considered: intrinsic person variables, and process variables such as thinking skills,…

Adult volunteerism in Pennsylvania 4-H natural resources programs for youth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Sanford Sherrick

2001-07-01

Pennsylvania's 4-H Youth Development Program relies on adult volunteers to reach youth with educational information and opportunities. Finding adults willing to do this volunteer work is challenging. This study looks at the current status of adult volunteerism with natural resources 4-H projects, and seeks to understand potential volunteers. The literature has much to offer in regards to general volunteer trends, management, motivations, and task preferences; however, few studies focus on volunteers in natural resources or environmental education. A telephone survey conducted with county 4-H agents revealed that only 3.2% of Pennsylvania's 4-H volunteers work with natural resources projects in 56 out of 67 counties, and that very few volunteers have any formal background in natural resources. Semi-structured interviews with 41 adult volunteers currently working with natural resources projects explored volunteer demographics, history, program design preferences, and ideas for seeking more volunteers. Findings from the telephone survey and the semi-structured interviews were used to generate a mail survey with large, random samples from three population groups: (1) 4-H Volunteers, (2) 4-H Parents, and (3) Natural Resources Professionals. Confidence with youth and subject matter, and adult willingness to volunteer was explored for each of the groups in relation to background, demographic characteristics, motivational needs, past and present volunteer activity, personal interests, and program design importance. Natural resources subject matter confidence was shown to be the most significant variable determining willingness to volunteer for all three groups. The variables that contributed to subject matter and youth confidence varied for each population. Key variables effecting willingness to volunteer included outdoor activity level, personal interest in natural resources, the need to fulfill feelings of social responsibility, and confidence with youth. Program design features were shown to have little impact on willingness among the populations. Normative descriptions of individuals most likely to volunteer from each group were generated. Findings will be useful for targeted recruitment, volunteer job placement, and expanded natural resources programming for youth.

The Potential Wind Power Resource in Australia: A New Perspective

PubMed Central

Hallgren, Willow; Gunturu, Udaya Bhaskar; Schlosser, Adam

2014-01-01

Australia’s wind resource is considered to be very good, and the utilization of this renewable energy resource is increasing rapidly: wind power installed capacity increased by 35% from 2006 to 2011 and is predicted to account for over 12% of Australia’s electricity generation in 2030. Due to this growth in the utilization of the wind resource and the increasing importance of wind power in Australia’s energy mix, this study sets out to analyze and interpret the nature of Australia’s wind resources using robust metrics of the abundance, variability and intermittency of wind power density, and analyzes the variation of these characteristics with current and potential wind turbine hub heights. We also assess the extent to which wind intermittency, on hourly or greater timescales, can potentially be mitigated by the aggregation of geographically dispersed wind farms, and in so doing, lessen the severe impact on wind power economic viability of long lulls in wind and power generated. Our results suggest that over much of Australia, areas that have high wind intermittency coincide with large expanses in which the aggregation of turbine output does not mitigate variability. These areas are also geographically remote, some are disconnected from the east coast’s electricity grid and large population centers, which are factors that could decrease the potential economic viability of wind farms in these locations. However, on the eastern seaboard, even though the wind resource is weaker, it is less variable, much closer to large population centers, and there exists more potential to mitigate it’s intermittency through aggregation. This study forms a necessary precursor to the analysis of the impact of large-scale circulations and oscillations on the wind resource at the mesoscale. PMID:24988222

The potential wind power resource in Australia: a new perspective.

PubMed

Hallgren, Willow; Gunturu, Udaya Bhaskar; Schlosser, Adam

2014-01-01

Australia's wind resource is considered to be very good, and the utilization of this renewable energy resource is increasing rapidly: wind power installed capacity increased by 35% from 2006 to 2011 and is predicted to account for over 12% of Australia's electricity generation in 2030. Due to this growth in the utilization of the wind resource and the increasing importance of wind power in Australia's energy mix, this study sets out to analyze and interpret the nature of Australia's wind resources using robust metrics of the abundance, variability and intermittency of wind power density, and analyzes the variation of these characteristics with current and potential wind turbine hub heights. We also assess the extent to which wind intermittency, on hourly or greater timescales, can potentially be mitigated by the aggregation of geographically dispersed wind farms, and in so doing, lessen the severe impact on wind power economic viability of long lulls in wind and power generated. Our results suggest that over much of Australia, areas that have high wind intermittency coincide with large expanses in which the aggregation of turbine output does not mitigate variability. These areas are also geographically remote, some are disconnected from the east coast's electricity grid and large population centers, which are factors that could decrease the potential economic viability of wind farms in these locations. However, on the eastern seaboard, even though the wind resource is weaker, it is less variable, much closer to large population centers, and there exists more potential to mitigate it's intermittency through aggregation. This study forms a necessary precursor to the analysis of the impact of large-scale circulations and oscillations on the wind resource at the mesoscale.

Modeling Framework and Validation of a Smart Grid and Demand Response System for Wind Power Integration

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Broeer, Torsten; Fuller, Jason C.; Tuffner, Francis K.

2014-01-31

Electricity generation from wind power and other renewable energy sources is increasing, and their variability introduces new challenges to the power system. The emergence of smart grid technologies in recent years has seen a paradigm shift in redefining the electrical system of the future, in which controlled response of the demand side is used to balance fluctuations and intermittencies from the generation side. This paper presents a modeling framework for an integrated electricity system where loads become an additional resource. The agent-based model represents a smart grid power system integrating generators, transmission, distribution, loads and market. The model incorporates generatormore » and load controllers, allowing suppliers and demanders to bid into a Real-Time Pricing (RTP) electricity market. The modeling framework is applied to represent a physical demonstration project conducted on the Olympic Peninsula, Washington, USA, and validation simulations are performed using actual dynamic data. Wind power is then introduced into the power generation mix illustrating the potential of demand response to mitigate the impact of wind power variability, primarily through thermostatically controlled loads. The results also indicate that effective implementation of Demand Response (DR) to assist integration of variable renewable energy resources requires a diversity of loads to ensure functionality of the overall system.« less

Limited and time-delayed internal resource allocation generates oscillations and chaos in the dynamics of citrus crops

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ye, Xujun, E-mail: yexujun@cc.hirosaki-u.ac.jp; Faculty of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Hirosaki University, Aomori 036-8561; Sakai, Kenshi, E-mail: ken@cc.tuat.ac.jp

Alternate bearing or masting is a yield variability phenomenon in perennial crops. The complex dynamics in this phenomenon have stimulated much ecological research. Motivated by data from an eight-year experiment with forty-eight individual trees, we explored the mechanism inherent to these dynamics in Satsuma mandarin (Citrus unshiu Marc.). By integrating high-resolution imaging technology, we found that the canopy structure and reproduction output of individual citrus crops are mutually dependent on each other. Furthermore, it was revealed that the mature leaves in early season contribute their energy to the fruiting of the current growing season, whereas the younger leaves show amore » delayed contribution to the next growing season. We thus hypothesized that the annual yield variability might be caused by the limited and time-delayed resource allocation in individual plants. A novel lattice model based on this hypothesis demonstrates that this pattern of resource allocation will generate oscillations and chaos in citrus yield.« less

Capacity expansion model of wind power generation based on ELCC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Bo; Zong, Jin; Wu, Shengyu

2018-02-01

Capacity expansion is an indispensable prerequisite for power system planning and construction. A reasonable, efficient and accurate capacity expansion model (CEM) is crucial to power system planning. In most current CEMs, the capacity of wind power generation is considered as boundary conditions instead of decision variables, which may lead to curtailment or over construction of flexible resource, especially at a high renewable energy penetration scenario. This paper proposed a wind power generation capacity value(CV) calculation method based on effective load-carrying capability, and a CEM that co-optimizes wind power generation and conventional power sources. Wind power generation is considered as decision variable in this model, and the model can accurately reflect the uncertainty nature of wind power.

Statistical, economic and other tools for assessing natural aggregate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bliss, J.D.; Moyle, P.R.; Bolm, K.S.

2003-01-01

Quantitative aggregate resource assessment provides resource estimates useful for explorationists, land managers and those who make decisions about land allocation, which may have long-term implications concerning cost and the availability of aggregate resources. Aggregate assessment needs to be systematic and consistent, yet flexible enough to allow updating without invalidating other parts of the assessment. Evaluators need to use standard or consistent aggregate classification and statistic distributions or, in other words, models with geological, geotechnical and economic variables or interrelationships between these variables. These models can be used with subjective estimates, if needed, to estimate how much aggregate may be present in a region or country using distributions generated by Monte Carlo computer simulations.

Intra-Hour Dispatch and Automatic Generator Control Demonstration with Solar Forecasting - Final Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Coimbra, Carlos F. M.

2016-02-25

In this project we address multiple resource integration challenges associated with increasing levels of solar penetration that arise from the variability and uncertainty in solar irradiance. We will model the SMUD service region as its own balancing region, and develop an integrated, real-time operational tool that takes solar-load forecast uncertainties into consideration and commits optimal energy resources and reserves for intra-hour and intra-day decisions. The primary objectives of this effort are to reduce power system operation cost by committing appropriate amount of energy resources and reserves, as well as to provide operators a prediction of the generation fleet’s behavior inmore » real time for realistic PV penetration scenarios. The proposed methodology includes the following steps: clustering analysis on the expected solar variability per region for the SMUD system, Day-ahead (DA) and real-time (RT) load forecasts for the entire service areas, 1-year of intra-hour CPR forecasts for cluster centers, 1-year of smart re-forecasting CPR forecasts in real-time for determination of irreducible errors, and uncertainty quantification for integrated solar-load for both distributed and central stations (selected locations within service region) PV generation.« less

Computing the Power-Density Spectrum for an Engineering Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dunn, H. J.

1982-01-01

Computer program for calculating of power-density spectrum (PDS) from data base generated by Advanced Continuous Simulation Language (ACSL) uses algorithm that employs fast Fourier transform (FFT) to calculate PDS of variable. Accomplished by first estimating autocovariance function of variable and then taking FFT of smoothed autocovariance function to obtain PDS. Fast-Fourier-transform technique conserves computer resources.

A Model for Optimizing the Combination of Solar Electricity Generation, Supply Curtailment, Transmission and Storage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perez, Marc J. R.

With extraordinary recent growth of the solar photovoltaic industry, it is paramount to address the biggest barrier to its high-penetration across global electrical grids: the inherent variability of the solar resource. This resource variability arises from largely unpredictable meteorological phenomena and from the predictable rotation of the earth around the sun and about its own axis. To achieve very high photovoltaic penetration, the imbalance between the variable supply of sunlight and demand must be alleviated. The research detailed herein consists of the development of a computational model which seeks to optimize the combination of 3 supply-side solutions to solar variability that minimizes the aggregate cost of electricity generated therefrom: Storage (where excess solar generation is stored when it exceeds demand for utilization when it does not meet demand), interconnection (where solar generation is spread across a large geographic area and electrically interconnected to smooth overall regional output) and smart curtailment (where solar capacity is oversized and excess generation is curtailed at key times to minimize the need for storage.). This model leverages a database created in the context of this doctoral work of satellite-derived photovoltaic output spanning 10 years at a daily interval for 64,000 unique geographic points across the globe. Underpinning the model's design and results, the database was used to further the understanding of solar resource variability at timescales greater than 1-day. It is shown that--as at shorter timescales--cloud/weather-induced solar variability decreases with geographic extent and that the geographic extent at which variability is mitigated increases with timescale and is modulated by the prevailing speed of clouds/weather systems. Unpredictable solar variability up to the timescale of 30 days is shown to be mitigated across a geographic extent of only 1500km if that geographic extent is oriented in a north/south bearing. Using technical and economic data reflecting today's real costs for solar generation technology, storage and electric transmission in combination with this model, we determined the minimum cost combination of these solutions to transform the variable output from solar plants into 3 distinct output profiles: A constant output equivalent to a baseload power plant, a well-defined seasonally-variable output with no weather-induced variability and a variable output but one that is 100% predictable on a multi-day ahead basis. In order to do this, over 14,000 model runs were performed by varying the desired output profile, the amount of energy curtailment, the penetration of solar energy and the geographic region across the continental United States. Despite the cost of supplementary electric transmission, geographic interconnection has the potential to reduce the levelized cost of electricity when meeting any of the studied output profiles by over 65% compared to when only storage is used. Energy curtailment, despite the cost of underutilizing solar energy capacity, has the potential to reduce the total cost of electricity when meeting any of the studied output profiles by over 75% compared to when only storage is used. The three variability mitigation strategies are thankfully not mutually exclusive. When combined at their ideal levels, each of the regions studied saw a reduction in cost of electricity of over 80% compared to when only energy storage is used to meet a specified output profile. When including current costs for solar generation, transmission and energy storage, an optimum configuration can conservatively provide guaranteed baseload power generation with solar across the entire continental United States (equivalent to a nuclear power plant with no down time) for less than 0.19 per kilowatt-hour. If solar is preferentially clustered in the southwest instead of evenly spread throughout the United States, and we adopt future expected costs for solar generation of 1 per watt, optimal model results show that meeting a 100% predictable output target with solar will cost no more than $0.08 per kilowatt-hour.

Forecasting Wind and Solar Generation: Improving System Operations, Greening the Grid (Spanish Version)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tian, Tian; Chernyakhovskiy, Ilya; Brancucci Martinez-Anido, Carlo

This document is the Spanish version of 'Greening the Grid- Forecasting Wind and Solar Generation Improving System Operations'. It discusses improving system operations with forecasting with and solar generation. By integrating variable renewable energy (VRE) forecasts into system operations, power system operators can anticipate up- and down-ramps in VRE generation in order to cost-effectively balance load and generation in intra-day and day-ahead scheduling. This leads to reduced fuel costs, improved system reliability, and maximum use of renewable resources.

Three-stage variability-based reserve modifiers for enhancing flexibility reserve requirements under high variable generation penetrations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Krad, Ibrahim; Gao, David Wenzhong; Ibanez, Eduardo

2016-12-01

The electric power system has continuously evolved in order to accommodate new technologies and operating strategies. As the penetration of integrated variable generation in the system increases, it is beneficial to develop strategies that can help mitigate their effect on the grid. Historically, power system operators have held excess capacity during the commitment and dispatch process to allow the system to handle unforeseen load ramping events. As variable generation resources increase, sufficient flexibility scheduled in the system is required to ensure that system performance is not deteriorated in the presence of additional variability and uncertainty. This paper presents a systematicmore » comparison of various flexibility reserve strategies. Several of them are implemented and applied in a common test system, in order to evaluate their effect on the economic and reliable operations. Furthermore, a three stage reserve modifier algorithm is proposed and evaluated for its ability to improve system performance.« less

Second-Generation Turkish Youth in Europe: Explaining the Academic Disadvantage in Austria, Germany, and Switzerland

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Song, Steve

2011-01-01

This investigation examines the role of students' home and school variables in producing the achievement gap between second-generation Turkish students and their native peers in Austria, Germany, and Switzerland. Using the data from PISA 2006, this study supports past findings that both home and school resources affect the educational outcomes of…

Marginal Cost Pricing in a World without Perfect Competition: Implications for Electricity Markets with High Shares of Low Marginal Cost Resources

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Frew, Bethany A.; Clark, Kara; Bloom, Aaron P.

A common approach to regulating electricity is through auction-based competitive wholesale markets. The goal of this approach is to provide a reliable supply of power at the lowest reasonable cost to the consumer. This necessitates market structures and operating rules that ensure revenue sufficiency for all generators needed for resource adequacy purposes. Wholesale electricity markets employ marginal-cost pricing to provide cost-effective dispatch such that resources are compensated for their operational costs. However, marginal-cost pricing alone cannot guarantee cost recovery outside of perfect competition, and electricity markets have at least six attributes that preclude them from functioning as perfectly competitive markets.more » These attributes include market power, externalities, public good attributes, lack of storage, wholesale price caps, and ineffective demand curve. Until (and unless) these failures are ameliorated, some form of corrective action(s) will be necessary to improve market efficiency so that prices can correctly reflect the needed level of system reliability. Many of these options necessarily involve some form of administrative or out-of-market actions, such as scarcity pricing, capacity payments, bilateral or other out-of-market contracts, or some hybrid combination. A key focus with these options is to create a connection between the electricity market and long-term reliability/loss-of-load expectation targets, which are inherently disconnected in the native markets because of the aforementioned market failures. The addition of variable generation resources can exacerbate revenue sufficiency and resource adequacy concerns caused by these underlying market failures. Because variable generation resources have near-zero marginal costs, they effectively suppress energy prices and reduce the capacity factors of conventional generators through the merit-order effect in the simplest case of a convex market; non-convexities can also suppress prices.« less

Analysis of the Effects of a Flexible Ramping Ancillary Service Product on Power System Operations: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Krad, Ibrahim; Ibanez, Eduardo; Ela, Erik

2015-10-19

The recent increased interest in utilizing variable generation (VG) resources such as wind and solar in power systems has motivated investigations into new operating procedures. Although these resources provide desirable value to a system (e.g., no fuel costs or emissions), interconnecting them provides unique challenges. Their variable, non-controllable nature in particular requires significant attention, because it directly results in increased power system variability and uncertainty. One way to handle this is via new operating reserve schemes. Operating reserves provide upward and downward generation and ramping capacity to counteract uncertainty and variability prior to their realization. For instance, uncertainty and variabilitymore » in real-time dispatch can be accounted for in the hour-ahead unit commitment. New operating reserve methodologies that specifically account for the increased variability and uncertainty caused by VG are currently being investigated and developed by academia and industry. This paper examines one method inspired by the new operating reserve product being proposed by the California Independent System Operator. The method is based on examining the potential ramping requirements at any given time and enforcing those requirements via a reserve demand curve in the market-clearing optimization as an additional ancillary service product.« less

Renewable Energy Resources Portfolio Optimization in the Presence of Demand Response

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Behboodi, Sahand; Chassin, David P.; Crawford, Curran

In this paper we introduce a simple cost model of renewable integration and demand response that can be used to determine the optimal mix of generation and demand response resources. The model includes production cost, demand elasticity, uncertainty costs, capacity expansion costs, retirement and mothballing costs, and wind variability impacts to determine the hourly cost and revenue of electricity delivery. The model is tested on the 2024 planning case for British Columbia and we find that cost is minimized with about 31% renewable generation. We also find that demand responsive does not have a significant impact on cost at themore » hourly level. The results suggest that the optimal level of renewable resource is not sensitive to a carbon tax or demand elasticity, but it is highly sensitive to the renewable resource installation cost.« less

Sensitivities and Tipping Points of Power System Operations to Fluctuations Caused by Water Availability and Fuel Prices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Connell, M.; Macknick, J.; Voisin, N.; Fu, T.

2017-12-01

The western US electric grid is highly dependent upon water resources for reliable operation. Hydropower and water-cooled thermoelectric technologies represent 67% of generating capacity in the western region of the US. While water resources provide a significant amount of generation and reliability for the grid, these same resources can represent vulnerabilities during times of drought or low flow conditions. A lack of water affects water-dependent technologies and can result in more expensive generators needing to run in order to meet electric grid demand, resulting in higher electricity prices and a higher cost to operate the grid. A companion study assesses the impact of changes in water availability and air temperatures on power operations by directly derating hydro and thermo-electric generators. In this study we assess the sensitivities and tipping points of water availability compared with higher fuel prices in electricity sector operations. We evaluate the impacts of varying electricity prices by modifying fuel prices for coal and natural gas. We then analyze the difference in simulation results between changes in fuel prices in combination with water availability and air temperature variability. We simulate three fuel price scenarios for a 2010 baseline scenario along with 100 historical and future hydro-climate conditions. We use the PLEXOS electricity production cost model to optimize power system dispatch and cost decisions under each combination of fuel price and water constraint. Some of the metrics evaluated are total production cost, generation type mix, emissions, transmission congestion, and reserve procurement. These metrics give insight to how strained the system is, how much flexibility it still has, and to what extent water resource availability or fuel prices drive changes in the electricity sector operations. This work will provide insights into current electricity operations as well as future cases of increased penetration of variable renewable generation technologies such as wind and solar.

Optimization of Water Resources and Agricultural Activities for Economic Benefit in Colorado

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

LIM, J.; Lall, U.

2017-12-01

The limited water resources available for irrigation are a key constraint for the important agricultural sector of Colorado's economy. As climate change and groundwater depletion reshape these resources, it is essential to understand the economic potential of water resources under different agricultural production practices. This study uses a linear programming optimization at the county spatial scale and annual temporal scales to study the optimal allocation of water withdrawal and crop choices. The model, AWASH, reflects streamflow constraints between different extraction points, six field crops, and a distinct irrigation decision for maize and wheat. The optimized decision variables, under different environmental, social, economic, and physical constraints, provide long-term solutions for ground and surface water distribution and for land use decisions so that the state can generate the maximum net revenue. Colorado, one of the largest agricultural producers, is tested as a case study and the sensitivity on water price and on climate variability is explored.

REMOTE AND PROXIMATE SENSING IN SUPPORT OF SUSTAINABLE WATERSHED MANAGEMENT

EPA Science Inventory

Inter-generationally prudent management of watershed resources will require attention to a complex array of interdependent variables. An interdisciplinary team of investigators from four national research laboratories in EPA's ORD are collaborating to develop stratagems for water...

Future Visions of the Brahmaputra - Establishing Hydrologic Baseline and Water Resources Context

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ray, P. A.; Yang, Y. E.; Wi, S.; Brown, C. M.

2013-12-01

The Brahmaputra River Basin (China-India-Bhutan-Bangladesh) is on the verge of a transition from a largely free flowing and highly variable river to a basin of rapid investment and infrastructure development. This work demonstrates a knowledge platform for the basin that compiles available data, and develops hydrologic and water resources system models of the basin. A Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model of the Brahmaputra basin supplies hydrologic information of major tributaries to a water resources system model, which routes runoff generated via the VIC model through water infrastructure, and accounts for water withdrawals for agriculture, hydropower generation, municipal demand, return flows and others human activities. The system model also simulates agricultural production and the economic value of water in its various uses, including municipal, agricultural, and hydropower. Furthermore, the modeling framework incorporates plausible climate change scenarios based on the latest projections of changes to contributing glaciers (upstream), as well as changes to monsoon behavior (downstream). Water resources projects proposed in the Brahmaputra basin are evaluated based on their distribution of benefits and costs in the absence of well-defined water entitlements, and relative to a complex regional water-energy-food nexus. Results of this project will provide a basis for water sharing negotiation among the four countries and inform trans-national water-energy policy making.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Milligan, Michael; Bloom, Aaron P; Townsend, Aaron

Defining flexibility has been a challenge that a number of industry members and researchers have attempted to address in recent years. With increased variability and uncertainty of variable generation (VG), the resources on the system will have to be more flexible to adjust output, so that power output ranges, power ramp rates, and energy duration sustainability are sufficient to meet the needs of balancing supply with demand at various operational timescales. This chapter discusses whether existing market designs provide adequate incentives for resources to offer their flexibility into the market to meet the increased levels of variability and uncertainty introducedmore » by VG in the short-term operational time frame. It presents a definition of flexibility and discusses how increased levels of VG require increased needs for flexibility on power systems. Following this introductory material, the chapter examines how existing market designs ensure that resources have the right incentives to provide increased flexibility, and then discusses a number of emerging market design elements that impact flexibility incentives.« less

Optimal Operation and Dispatch of Voltage Regulation Devices Considering High Penetrations of Distributed Photovoltaic Generation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mather, Barry A; Hodge, Brian S; Cho, Gyu-Jung

Voltage regulation devices have been traditionally installed and utilized to support distribution voltages. Installations of distributed energy resources (DERs) in distribution systems are rapidly increasing, and many of these generation resources have variable and uncertain power output. These generators can significantly change the voltage profile for a feeder; therefore, in the distribution system planning stage of the optimal operation and dispatch of voltage regulation devices, possible high penetrations of DERs should be considered. In this paper, we model the IEEE 34-bus test feeder, including all essential equipment. An optimization method is adopted to determine the optimal siting and operation ofmore » the voltage regulation devices in the presence of distributed solar power generation. Finally, we verify the optimal configuration of the entire system through the optimization and simulation results.« less

Wet Waste-to-Energy Resources in the United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Milbrandt, Anelia R; Heimiller, Donna M; Seiple, Timothy

Waste-to-energy (WTE) technologies present an opportunity to recycle organic waste material into renewable energy while offsetting disposal and environmental costs. A key challenge to ensuring economic and environmental viability of WTE is understanding the variability of individual WTE resource characteristics, including their location, amount, and quality. The main objective of this study is to estimate the wet WTE resource potential in the United States and illustrate its geographic distribution. The wet resources considered in this study are wastewater sludge, animal manure, food waste, and FOG (fats, oils, and greases). This study is the first to achieve results below national level,more » at the finest geographic resolution. Our analysis indicates that about 566 teragrams (Tg) of wet WTE resources are generated annually in the United States. This amount corresponds to about 1 exajoule (EJ), which is sufficient to displace about 18% of the 2015 U.S. on-highway diesel consumption on an energy basis. About half of this potential is generated by animal manure.« less

Power management and frequency regulation for microgrid and smart grid: A real-time demand response approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pourmousavi Kani, Seyyed Ali

Future power systems (known as smart grid) will experience a high penetration level of variable distributed energy resources to bring abundant, affordable, clean, efficient, and reliable electric power to all consumers. However, it might suffer from the uncertain and variable nature of these generations in terms of reliability and especially providing required balancing reserves. In the current power system structure, balancing reserves (provided by spinning and non-spinning power generation units) usually are provided by conventional fossil-fueled power plants. However, such power plants are not the favorite option for the smart grid because of their low efficiency, high amount of emissions, and expensive capital investments on transmission and distribution facilities, to name a few. Providing regulation services in the presence of variable distributed energy resources would be even more difficult for islanded microgrids. The impact and effectiveness of demand response are still not clear at the distribution and transmission levels. In other words, there is no solid research reported in the literature on the evaluation of the impact of DR on power system dynamic performance. In order to address these issues, a real-time demand response approach along with real-time power management (specifically for microgrids) is proposed in this research. The real-time demand response solution is utilized at the transmission (through load-frequency control model) and distribution level (both in the islanded and grid-tied modes) to provide effective and fast regulation services for the stable operation of the power system. Then, multiple real-time power management algorithms for grid-tied and islanded microgrids are proposed to economically and effectively operate microgrids. Extensive dynamic modeling of generation, storage, and load as well as different controller design are considered and developed throughout this research to provide appropriate models and simulation environment to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed methodologies. Simulation results revealed the effectiveness of the proposed methods in providing balancing reserves and microgrids' economic and stable operation. The proposed tools and approaches can significantly enhance the application of microgrids and demand response in the smart grid era. They will also help to increase the penetration level of variable distributed generation resources in the smart grid.

Report on Transmission Cost Allocation for RTOs and Others (Presentation)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Coles, L.

2011-06-01

Presented at the MARC 2011 Annual Conference, 6 June 2011, Rapid City, South Dakota. This presentation provides an overview of the latest research findings and policy developments pertaining to cost allocation and new variable generation resources on the power grid.

Stand-alone hybrid wind-photovoltaic power generation systems optimal sizing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crǎciunescu, Aurelian; Popescu, Claudia; Popescu, Mihai; Florea, Leonard Marin

2013-10-01

Wind and photovoltaic energy resources have attracted energy sectors to generate power on a large scale. A drawback, common to these options, is their unpredictable nature and dependence on day time and meteorological conditions. Fortunately, the problems caused by the variable nature of these resources can be partially overcome by integrating the two resources in proper combination, using the strengths of one source to overcome the weakness of the other. The hybrid systems that combine wind and solar generating units with battery backup can attenuate their individual fluctuations and can match with the power requirements of the beneficiaries. In order to efficiently and economically utilize the hybrid energy system, one optimum match design sizing method is necessary. In this way, literature offers a variety of methods for multi-objective optimal designing of hybrid wind/photovoltaic (WG/PV) generating systems, one of the last being genetic algorithms (GA) and particle swarm optimization (PSO). In this paper, mathematical models of hybrid WG/PV components and a short description of the last proposed multi-objective optimization algorithms are given.

Wholesale Electricity Market Design with Increasing Levels of Renewable Generation: Incentivizing Flexibility in System Operations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ela, Erik; Milligan, Michael; Bloom, Aaron

This paper discusses the importance and challenges of incentivizing flexibility during short-term operations of the bulk power system due to the increasing variability and uncertainty from growing penetrations of variable generation (VG). Operational flexibility can refer to many aspects of a resource's capability to support the power system, such as the speed, range, and duration of power output, as well as the ability to autonomously respond to frequency or voltage changes. Inefficient utilization of existing flexibility, or unwillingness of resources to provide flexibility, can compromise system reliability by not meeting the changing net load, and it can also lead tomore » higher costs when an inefficient use of flexibility resources occurs. There are many existing characteristics of market design that incentivize flexibility in some manner. How they incentivize the provision of flexibility as well as the level of flexibility is still debated. We explore some of these existing market designs, as well as new market mechanisms, such as pay-for-performance regulating reserve and flexible ramping products, that aim to explicitly incentivize the provision of more flexibility to the system, particularly as a result of increasing VG penetration levels.« less

Universal quantum computation with temporal-mode bilayer square lattices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexander, Rafael N.; Yokoyama, Shota; Furusawa, Akira; Menicucci, Nicolas C.

2018-03-01

We propose an experimental design for universal continuous-variable quantum computation that incorporates recent innovations in linear-optics-based continuous-variable cluster state generation and cubic-phase gate teleportation. The first ingredient is a protocol for generating the bilayer-square-lattice cluster state (a universal resource state) with temporal modes of light. With this state, measurement-based implementation of Gaussian unitary gates requires only homodyne detection. Second, we describe a measurement device that implements an adaptive cubic-phase gate, up to a random phase-space displacement. It requires a two-step sequence of homodyne measurements and consumes a (non-Gaussian) cubic-phase state.

Employee age and tenure within organizations: relationship to workplace satisfaction and workplace climate perceptions.

PubMed

Teclaw, Robert; Osatuke, Katerine; Fishman, Jonathan; Moore, Scott C; Dyrenforth, Sue

2014-01-01

This study estimated the relative influence of age/generation and tenure on job satisfaction and workplace climate perceptions. Data from the 2004, 2008, and 2012 Veterans Health Administration All Employee Survey (sample sizes >100 000) were examined in general linear models, with demographic characteristics simultaneously included as independent variables. Ten dependent variables represented a broad range of employee attitudes. Age/generation and tenure effects were compared through partial η(2) (95% confidence interval), P value of F statistic, and overall model R(2). Demographic variables taken together were only weakly related to employee attitudes, accounting for less than 10% of the variance. Consistently across survey years, for all dependent variables, age and age-squared had very weak to no effects, whereas tenure and tenure-squared had meaningfully greater partial η(2) values. Except for 1 independent variable in 1 year, none of the partial η(2) confidence intervals for age and age-squared overlapped those of tenure and tenure-squared. Much has been made in the popular and professional press of the importance of generational differences in workplace attitudes. Empirical studies have been contradictory and therefore inconclusive. The findings reported here suggest that age/generational differences might not influence employee perceptions to the extent that human resource and management practitioners have been led to believe.

Ramping and Uncertainty Prediction Tool - Analysis and Visualization of Wind Generation Impact on Electrical Grid

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Etingov, Pavel; Makarov, PNNL Yuri; Subbarao, PNNL Kris

RUT software is designed for use by the Balancing Authorities to predict and display additional requirements caused by the variability and uncertainty in load and generation. The prediction is made for the next operating hours as well as for the next day. The tool predicts possible deficiencies in generation capability and ramping capability. This deficiency of balancing resources can cause serious risks to power system stability and also impact real-time market energy prices. The tool dynamically and adaptively correlates changing system conditions with the additional balancing needs triggered by the interplay between forecasted and actual load and output of variablemore » resources. The assessment is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm incorporating multiple sources of uncertainty including wind, solar and load forecast errors. The tool evaluates required generation for a worst case scenario, with a user-specified confidence level.« less

Market protocols in ERCOT and their effect on wind generation

DOE PAGES

Sioshansi, Ramteen; Hurlbut, David

2009-08-22

Integrating wind generation into power systems and wholesale electricity markets presents unique challenges due to the characteristics of wind power, including its limited dispatchability, variability in generation, difficulty in forecasting resource availability, and the geographic location of wind resources. Texas has had to deal with many of these issues beginning in 2002 when it restructured its electricity industry and introduced aggressive renewable portfolio standards that helped spur major investments in wind generation. In this paper we discuss the issues that have arisen in designing market protocols that take account of these special characteristics of wind generation and survey the regulatorymore » and market rules that have been developed in Texas. We discuss the perverse incentives some of the rules gave wind generators to overschedule generation in order to receive balancing energy payments, and steps that have been taken to mitigate those incentive effects. Lastly, we discuss more recent steps taken by the market operator and regulators to ensure transmission capacity is available for new wind generators that are expected to come online in the future.« less

Reservoirs performances under climate variability: a case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Longobardi, A.; Mautone, M.; de Luca, C.

2014-09-01

A case study, the Piano della Rocca dam (southern Italy) is discussed here in order to quantify the system performances under climate variability conditions. Different climate scenarios have been stochastically generated according to the tendencies in precipitation and air temperature observed during recent decades for the studied area. Climate variables have then been filtered through an ARMA model to generate, at the monthly scale, time series of reservoir inflow volumes. Controlled release has been computed considering the reservoir is operated following the standard linear operating policy (SLOP) and reservoir performances have been assessed through the calculation of reliability, resilience and vulnerability indices (Hashimoto et al. 1982), comparing current and future scenarios of climate variability. The proposed approach can be suggested as a valuable tool to mitigate the effects of moderate to severe and persistent droughts periods, through the allocation of new water resources or the planning of appropriate operational rules.

Quantum teleportation in the spin-orbit variables of photon pairs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Khoury, A. Z.; Milman, P.; Laboratoire Materiaux et Phenomenes Quantiques, CNRS UMR 7162, Universite Paris Diderot, F-75013, Paris

2011-06-15

We propose a polarization to orbital angular momentum teleportation scheme using entangled photon pairs generated by spontaneous parametric down-conversion. By making a joint detection of the polarization and angular momentum parity of a single photon, we are able to detect all the Bell states and perform, in principle, perfect teleportation from a discrete to a continuous system using minimal resources. The proposed protocol implementation demands experimental resources that are currently available in quantum optics laboratories.

Greening the Grid: Solar and Wind Grid Integration Study for the Luzon-Visayas System of the Philippines

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Barrows, Clayton P.; Katz, Jessica R.; Cochran, Jaquelin M.

The Republic of the Philippines is home to abundant solar, wind, and other renewable energy (RE) resources that contribute to the national government's vision to ensure sustainable, secure, sufficient, accessible, and affordable energy. Because solar and wind resources are variable and uncertain, significant generation from these resources necessitates an evolution in power system planning and operation. To support Philippine power sector planners in evaluating the impacts and opportunities associated with achieving high levels of variable RE penetration, the Department of Energy of the Philippines (DOE) and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) have spearheaded this study along withmore » a group of modeling representatives from across the Philippine electricity industry, which seeks to characterize the operational impacts of reaching high solar and wind targets in the Philippine power system, with a specific focus on the integrated Luzon-Visayas grids.« less

Lower Velocity Sites Improve the Tidal-Stream Energy Resource

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robins, P. E.; Lewis, M. J.; Neill, S. P.; Hashemi, M. R.; Stephenson, G.

2015-12-01

It is essential that developers have detailed knowledge of the tidal-stream energy resource. ROMS hydrodynamic models (~1 km resolution) of key areas in northwest Europe, were used to examine the spatial and temporal distribution of the tidal-stream resource. Currently, sites with peak spring tide velocities (M2 and S2 constituents) in excess of 2.5 m/s and water depths between 25 and 50 m are preferred. When assuming this so-called "1st generation" criteria, a limited resource with limited scope for long-term sustainability of the industry was calculated for the Irish Sea; a key area for UK development. Selecting sites that also included 20% lower velocities (>2 m/s) and deeper water locations (>25m) resulted in a seven-fold increase in the available resource (for the Irish Sea). Although new engineering challenges will be encountered (e.g. more wave exposed locations) by developing these 2nd generation tidal-stream energy sites (>2m/s and >25m), some oceanographic challenges would be improved. For example, the flood-ebb tidal flow is not typically rectilinear at 1st generation UK sites (a mean error from rectilinear of ~20° in this assumption), which is reduced to near-rectilinear flow (˜3° error) when including 2nd generation sites. Analysis of our northwest European model revealed more phase diversity is offered by developing lower tidal energy sites, allowing firm and constant electricity generation. Moreover, at 1st generation sites, we calculate significant, and unaccounted, variability in annual practical power generation. For example, mean peak spring tidal velocities can under-estimate the annual practical resource by up to 25%, for regions experiencing similar mean peak spring tidal velocities, due to the ratio of M2 and S2, together with the influence of other tidal constituents, such as K1 and O1. Therefore, based on prevalence, firm power and engineering challengers, we find a strong case for developing lower flow technologies.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bank, J.; Mather, B.

This paper, presented at the IEEE Green Technologies Conference 2013, utilizes information from high resolution data acquisition systems developed at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and deployed on a high-penetration PV distribution system to analyze the variability of different electrical parameters. High-resolution solar irradiance data is also available in the same area which is used to characterize the available resource and how it affects the electrical characteristics of the study circuit. This paper takes a data-driven look at the variability caused by load and compares those results against times when significant PV production is present. Comparisons between the variability inmore » system load and the variability of distributed PV generation are made.« less

Optimal Capacitor Bank Capacity and Placement in Distribution Systems with High Distributed Solar Power Penetration

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hodge, Brian S; Mather, Barry A; Cho, Gyu-Jung

Capacitor banks have been generally installed and utilized to support distribution voltage during period of higher load or on longer, higher impedance, feeders. Installations of distributed energy resources in distribution systems are rapidly increasing, and many of these generation resources have variable and uncertain power output. These generators can significantly change the voltage profile across a feeder, and therefore when a new capacitor bank is needed analysis of optimal capacity and location of the capacitor bank is required. In this paper, we model a particular distribution system including essential equipment. An optimization method is adopted to determine the best capacitymore » and location sets of the newly installed capacitor banks, in the presence of distributed solar power generation. Finally we analyze the optimal capacitor banks configuration through the optimization and simulation results.« less

Five Exciting, Enriching Outdoor Study Days in the Life of Delaware Valley Middle School Sixth Graders.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Palermo, Scott D.; Sewall, Susan B.

1988-01-01

Discusses some of the variables involved in the development of five environmental education days by the Delaware Valley (Pennsylvania) Middle School. Recounts some of the ways that support was generated for programs from school administrators and community resources people. (TW)

Comparative study of different stochastic weather generators for long-term climate data simulation

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Climate is one of the single most important factors affecting watershed ecosystems and water resources. The effect of climate variability and change has been studied extensively in some places; in many places, however, assessments are hampered by limited availability of long term continuous climate ...

Consequences of neglecting the interannual variability of the solar resource: A case study of photovoltaic power among the Hawaiian Islands

DOE PAGES

Bryce, Richard; Losada Carreno, Ignacio; Kumler, Andrew; ...

2018-04-05

The interannual variability of the solar irradiance and meteorological conditions are often ignored in favor of single-year data sets for modeling power generation and evaluating the economic value of photovoltaic (PV) power systems. Yet interannual variability significantly impacts the generation from one year to another of renewable power systems such as wind and PV. Consequently, the interannual variability of power generation corresponds to the interannual variability of capital returns on investment. The penetration of PV systems within the Hawaiian Electric Companies' portfolio has rapidly accelerated in recent years and is expected to continue to increase given the state's energy objectivesmore » laid out by the Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative. We use the National Solar Radiation Database (1998-2015) to characterize the interannual variability of the solar irradiance and meteorological conditions across the State of Hawaii. These data sets are passed to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's System Advisory Model (SAM) to calculate an 18-year PV power generation data set to characterize the variability of PV power generation. We calculate the interannual coefficient of variability (COV) for annual average global horizontal irradiance (GHI) on the order of 2% and COV for annual capacity factor on the order of 3% across the Hawaiian archipelago. Regarding the interannual variability of seasonal trends, we calculate the COV for monthly average GHI values on the order of 5% and COV for monthly capacity factor on the order of 10%. We model residential-scale and utility-scale PV systems and calculate the economic returns of each system via the payback period and the net present value. We demonstrate that studies based on single-year data sets for economic evaluations reach conclusions that deviate from the true values realized by accounting for interannual variability.« less

Consequences of neglecting the interannual variability of the solar resource: A case study of photovoltaic power among the Hawaiian Islands

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bryce, Richard; Losada Carreno, Ignacio; Kumler, Andrew

The interannual variability of the solar irradiance and meteorological conditions are often ignored in favor of single-year data sets for modeling power generation and evaluating the economic value of photovoltaic (PV) power systems. Yet interannual variability significantly impacts the generation from one year to another of renewable power systems such as wind and PV. Consequently, the interannual variability of power generation corresponds to the interannual variability of capital returns on investment. The penetration of PV systems within the Hawaiian Electric Companies' portfolio has rapidly accelerated in recent years and is expected to continue to increase given the state's energy objectivesmore » laid out by the Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative. We use the National Solar Radiation Database (1998-2015) to characterize the interannual variability of the solar irradiance and meteorological conditions across the State of Hawaii. These data sets are passed to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's System Advisory Model (SAM) to calculate an 18-year PV power generation data set to characterize the variability of PV power generation. We calculate the interannual coefficient of variability (COV) for annual average global horizontal irradiance (GHI) on the order of 2% and COV for annual capacity factor on the order of 3% across the Hawaiian archipelago. Regarding the interannual variability of seasonal trends, we calculate the COV for monthly average GHI values on the order of 5% and COV for monthly capacity factor on the order of 10%. We model residential-scale and utility-scale PV systems and calculate the economic returns of each system via the payback period and the net present value. We demonstrate that studies based on single-year data sets for economic evaluations reach conclusions that deviate from the true values realized by accounting for interannual variability.« less

Optimizing Wind And Hydropower Generation Within Realistic Reservoir Operating Policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Magee, T. M.; Clement, M. A.; Zagona, E. A.

2012-12-01

Previous studies have evaluated the benefits of utilizing the flexibility of hydropower systems to balance the variability and uncertainty of wind generation. However, previous hydropower and wind coordination studies have simplified non-power constraints on reservoir systems. For example, some studies have only included hydropower constraints on minimum and maximum storage volumes and minimum and maximum plant discharges. The methodology presented here utilizes the pre-emptive linear goal programming optimization solver in RiverWare to model hydropower operations with a set of prioritized policy constraints and objectives based on realistic policies that govern the operation of actual hydropower systems, including licensing constraints, environmental constraints, water management and power objectives. This approach accounts for the fact that not all policy constraints are of equal importance. For example target environmental flow levels may not be satisfied if it would require violating license minimum or maximum storages (pool elevations), but environmental flow constraints will be satisfied before optimizing power generation. Additionally, this work not only models the economic value of energy from the combined hydropower and wind system, it also captures the economic value of ancillary services provided by the hydropower resources. It is recognized that the increased variability and uncertainty inherent with increased wind penetration levels requires an increase in ancillary services. In regions with liberalized markets for ancillary services, a significant portion of hydropower revenue can result from providing ancillary services. Thus, ancillary services should be accounted for when determining the total value of a hydropower system integrated with wind generation. This research shows that the end value of integrated hydropower and wind generation is dependent on a number of factors that can vary by location. Wind factors include wind penetration level, variability due to geographic distribution of wind resources, and forecast error. Electric power system factors include the mix of thermal generation resources, available transmission, demand patterns, and market structures. Hydropower factors include relative storage capacity, reservoir operating policies and hydrologic conditions. In addition, the wind, power system, and hydropower factors are often interrelated because stochastic weather patterns can simultaneously influence wind generation, power demand, and hydrologic inflows. One of the central findings is that the sensitivity of the model to changes cannot be performed one factor at a time because the impact of the factors is highly interdependent. For example, the net value of wind generation may be very sensitive to changes in transmission capacity under some hydrologic conditions, but not at all under others.

Energy Storage on the Grid and the Short-term Variability of Wind

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hittinger, Eric Stephen

Wind generation presents variability on every time scale, which must be accommodated by the electric grid. Limited quantities of wind power can be successfully integrated by the current generation and demand-side response mix but, as deployment of variable resources increases, the resulting variability becomes increasingly difficult and costly to mitigate. In Chapter 2, we model a co-located power generation/energy storage block composed of wind generation, a gas turbine, and fast-ramping energy storage. A scenario analysis identifies system configurations that can generate power with 30% of energy from wind, a variability of less than 0.5% of the desired power level, and an average cost around $70/MWh. While energy storage technologies have existed for decades, fast-ramping grid-level storage is still an immature industry and is experiencing relatively rapid improvements in performance and cost across a variety of technologies. Decreased capital cost, increased power capability, and increased efficiency all would improve the value of an energy storage technology and each has cost implications that vary by application, but there has not yet been an investigation of the marginal rate of technical substitution between storage properties. The analysis in chapter 3 uses engineering-economic models of four emerging fast-ramping energy storage technologies to determine which storage properties have the greatest effect on cost-of-service. We find that capital cost of storage is consistently important, and identify applications for which power/energy limitations are important. In some systems with a large amount of wind power, the costs of wind integration have become significant and market rules have been slowly changing in order to internalize or control the variability of wind generation. Chapter 4 examines several potential market strategies for mitigating the effects of wind variability and estimate the effect that each strategy would have on the operation and profitability of wind farms. We find that market scenarios using existing price signals to motivate wind to reduce variability allow wind generators to participate in variability reduction when the market conditions are favorable, and can reduce short-term (30-minute) fluctuations while having little effect on wind farm revenue.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Katz, Jessica; Denholm, Paul; Pless, Jacquelyn

Wind and solar are inherently more variable and uncertain than the traditional dispatchable thermal and hydro generators that have historically provided a majority of grid-supplied electricity. The unique characteristics of variable renewable energy (VRE) resources have resulted in many misperceptions regarding their contribution to a low-cost and reliable power grid. Common areas of concern include: 1) The potential need for increased operating reserves, 2) The impact of variability and uncertainty on operating costs and pollutant emissions of thermal plants, and 3) The technical limits of VRE penetration rates to maintain grid stability and reliability. This fact sheet corrects misperceptions inmore » these areas.« less

Hydro pumped storage, international experience: An overview of ASCE task committee report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Makarechian, A.H.; Rummel, G.

1995-12-31

This paper presents an overview of a report that is being prepared by ASCE Task Committee on Pumped Storage, International Experience. The reader is referred to the committee report that will be available in 1996. Many pumped storage projects in Europe, but particularly in Japan are becoming an indispensable resource in management of loads and resources on the electrical system. They serve to enhance reliability of the system and to provide for efficient utilization of thermal resources. Pumped storage is increasingly being used as a system management tool. To serve such purposes and to function in this key role, pumpedmore » storage projects are designed for very fast loading and unloading, for very fast mode reversals from pumping to generating and visa versa, for synchronous generation, and more importantly for load ramping during the pumping mode. This is achieved by use of variable-speed pump turbine units. The use of variable-speed units has proven so successful in Japan that many older projects are retrofitted with this new feature. Other interesting equipment applications are discussed including utilization of multi-stage unregulated pump turbines for very high heads (up to 1,250 m), and continued extension of the experience for high head reversible Francis unit, currently in excess of 750 m.« less

Scheduling and Pricing for Expected Ramp Capability in Real-Time Power Markets

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ela, Erik; O'Malley, Mark

2016-05-01

Higher variable renewable generation penetrations are occurring throughout the world on different power systems. These resources increase the variability and uncertainty on the system which must be accommodated by an increase in the flexibility of the system resources in order to maintain reliability. Many scheduling strategies have been discussed and introduced to ensure that this flexibility is available at multiple timescales. To meet variability, that is, the expected changes in system conditions, two recent strategies have been introduced: time-coupled multi-period market clearing models and the incorporation of ramp capability constraints. To appropriately evaluate these methods, it is important to assessmore » both efficiency and reliability. But it is also important to assess the incentive structure to ensure that resources asked to perform in different ways have the proper incentives to follow these directions, which is a step often ignored in simulation studies. We find that there are advantages and disadvantages to both approaches. We also find that look-ahead horizon length in multi-period market models can impact incentives. This paper proposes scheduling and pricing methods that ensure expected ramps are met reliably, efficiently, and with associated prices based on true marginal costs that incentivize resources to do as directed by the market. Case studies show improvements of the new method.« less

Grid flexibility: The quiet revolution

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hsieh, Eric; Anderson, Robert

The concept of flexibility describes the capability of the power system to maintain balance between generation and load under uncertainty. While the grid has historically incorporated flexibility-specific resources such as pumped hydro to complement nuclear generators, modern trends and the increased deployment of variable energy resources (VERs) are increasing the need for a transparent market value of flexibility. A review of analyses, docket filings, tariffs, and business practice manuals from the past several years finds substantial flexibility-related activity. These activities are categorized as market and financial structures; incorporation of new operations or technology; and legal or procedural reforms. The cumulativemore » outcome of these incremental changes will be a major transformation to power systems that can rapidly adapt to new needs, technologies, and conditions.« less

Cooperative Optimal Coordination for Distributed Energy Resources

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Tao; Wu, Di; Ren, Wei

In this paper, we consider the optimal coordination problem for distributed energy resources (DERs) including distributed generators and energy storage devices. We propose an algorithm based on the push-sum and gradient method to optimally coordinate storage devices and distributed generators in a distributed manner. In the proposed algorithm, each DER only maintains a set of variables and updates them through information exchange with a few neighbors over a time-varying directed communication network. We show that the proposed distributed algorithm solves the optimal DER coordination problem if the time-varying directed communication network is uniformly jointly strongly connected, which is a mildmore » condition on the connectivity of communication topologies. The proposed distributed algorithm is illustrated and validated by numerical simulations.« less

Grid flexibility: The quiet revolution

DOE PAGES

Hsieh, Eric; Anderson, Robert

2017-02-16

The concept of flexibility describes the capability of the power system to maintain balance between generation and load under uncertainty. While the grid has historically incorporated flexibility-specific resources such as pumped hydro to complement nuclear generators, modern trends and the increased deployment of variable energy resources (VERs) are increasing the need for a transparent market value of flexibility. A review of analyses, docket filings, tariffs, and business practice manuals from the past several years finds substantial flexibility-related activity. These activities are categorized as market and financial structures; incorporation of new operations or technology; and legal or procedural reforms. The cumulativemore » outcome of these incremental changes will be a major transformation to power systems that can rapidly adapt to new needs, technologies, and conditions.« less

The Future Potential of Wave Power in the US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Previsic, M.; Epler, J.; Hand, M.; Heimiller, D.; Short, W.; Eurek, K.

2012-12-01

The theoretical ocean wave energy resource potential exceeds 50% of the annual domestic energy demand of the US, is located in close proximity of coastal population centers, and, although variable in nature, may be more consistent and predictable than some other renewable generation technologies. As renewable electricity generation technologies, ocean wave energy offers a low air pollutant option for diversifying the US electricity generation portfolio. Furthermore, the output characteristics of these technologies may complement other renewable technologies. This study addresses: (1) The energy extraction potential from the US wave energy resource, (2) The present cost of wave technology in /kW, (3) The estimated cost of energy in /kWh, and (4) Cost levels at which the technology should see significant deployment. RE Vision Consulting in collaboration with NREL engaged in various analyses to establish present-day and future cost profiles for MHK technologies, compiled existing resource assessments and wave energy supply curves, and developed cost and deployment scenarios using the ReEDS analysis model to estimate the present-day technology cost reductions necessary to facilitate significant technology deployment in the US.

The Concept of Resource Use Efficiency as a Theoretical Basis for Promising Coal Mining Technologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mikhalchenko, Vadim

2017-11-01

The article is devoted to solving one of the most relevant problems of the coal mining industry - its high resource use efficiency, which results in high environmental and economic costs of operating enterprises. It is shown that it is the high resource use efficiency of traditional, historically developed coal production systems that generates a conflict between indicators of economic efficiency and indicators of resistance to uncertainty and variability of market environment parameters. The traditional technological paradigm of exploitation of coal deposits also predetermines high, technology-driven, economic risks. The solution is shown and a real example of the problem solution is considered.

Costs and financing of improvements in the quality of maternal health services through the Bamako Initiative in Nigeria.

PubMed

Ogunbekun, I; Adeyi, O; Wouters, A; Morrow, R H

1996-12-01

This paper reports on a study to assess the quality of maternal health care in public health facilities in Nigeria and to identify the resource implications of making the necessary quality improvements. Drawing upon unifying themes from quality assurance, basic microeconomics and the Bamako Initiative, locally defined norms were used to estimate resource requirements for improving the quality of maternal health care. Wide gaps existed between what is required (the norm) and what was available in terms of fixed and variable resources required for the delivery of maternal health services in public facilities implementing the Bamako Initiative in the Local Government Areas studied. Given such constraints, it was highly unlikely that technically acceptable standards of care could be met without additional resource inputs to meet the norm. This is part of the cost of doing business and merits serious policy dialogue. Revenue generation from health services was poor and appeared to be more related to inadequate supply of essential drugs and consumables than to the use of uneconomic fee scales. It is likely that user fees will be necessary to supplement scarce government budgets, especially to fund the most critical variable inputs associated with quality improvements. However, any user fee system, especially one that raises fees to patients, will have to be accompanied by immediate and visible quality improvements. Without such quality improvements, cost recovery will result in even lower utilization and attempts to generate new revenues are unlikely to succeed.

Concept Overview & Preliminary Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ruth, Mark

2017-07-12

'H2@Scale' is an opportunity for wide-scale use of hydrogen as an intermediate that carries energy from various production options to multiple uses. It is based on identifying and developing opportunities for low-cost hydrogen production and investigating opportunities for using that hydrogen across the electricity, industrial, and transportation sectors. One of the key production opportunities is use of low-cost electricity that may be generated under high penetrations of variable renewable generators such as wind and solar photovoltaics. The technical potential demand for hydrogen across the sectors is 60 million metric tons per year. The U.S. has sufficient domestic renewable resources somore » that each could meet that demand and could readily meet the demand using a portfolio of generation options. This presentation provides an overview of the concept and the technical potential demand and resources. It also motivates analysis and research on H2@Scale.« less

Geomatic methods at the service of water resources modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molina, José-Luis; Rodríguez-Gonzálvez, Pablo; Molina, Mª Carmen; González-Aguilera, Diego; Espejo, Fernando

2014-02-01

Acquisition, management and/or use of spatial information are crucial for the quality of water resources studies. In this sense, several geomatic methods arise at the service of water modelling, aiming the generation of cartographic products, especially in terms of 3D models and orthophotos. They may also perform as tools for problem solving and decision making. However, choosing the right geomatic method is still a challenge in this field. That is mostly due to the complexity of the different applications and variables involved for water resources management. This study is aimed to provide a guide to best practices in this context by tackling a deep review of geomatic methods and their suitability assessment for the following study types: Surface Hydrology, Groundwater Hydrology, Hydraulics, Agronomy, Morphodynamics and Geotechnical Processes. This assessment is driven by several decision variables grouped in two categories, classified depending on their nature as geometric or radiometric. As a result, the reader comes with the best choice/choices for the method to use, depending on the type of water resources modelling study in hand.

Geospatial relationships of tree species damage caused by Hurricane Katrina in south Mississippi

Treesearch

Mark W. Garrigues; Zhaofei Fan; David L. Evans; Scott D. Roberts; William H. Cooke III

2012-01-01

Hurricane Katrina generated substantial impacts on the forests and biological resources of the affected area in Mississippi. This study seeks to use classification tree analysis (CTA) to determine which variables are significant in predicting hurricane damage (shear or windthrow) in the Southeast Mississippi Institute for Forest Inventory District. Logistic regressions...

Did You Know – Transactive Energy Provides the Next Big Step in DER Integration

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McDermott, Thomas E.

This is an invited blog article for the Utility Variable Generation Integration Group (UVIG) on the topic of distributed energy resource (DER) integration. Summarizes DER progress since 2004, which signifies a maturing industry. Proposes transactive energy as a means of integrating more DER without special incentives or mitigation techniques.

A transient stochastic weather generator incorporating climate model uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glenis, Vassilis; Pinamonti, Valentina; Hall, Jim W.; Kilsby, Chris G.

2015-11-01

Stochastic weather generators (WGs), which provide long synthetic time series of weather variables such as rainfall and potential evapotranspiration (PET), have found widespread use in water resources modelling. When conditioned upon the changes in climatic statistics (change factors, CFs) predicted by climate models, WGs provide a useful tool for climate impacts assessment and adaption planning. The latest climate modelling exercises have involved large numbers of global and regional climate models integrations, designed to explore the implications of uncertainties in the climate model formulation and parameter settings: so called 'perturbed physics ensembles' (PPEs). In this paper we show how these climate model uncertainties can be propagated through to impact studies by testing multiple vectors of CFs, each vector derived from a different sample from a PPE. We combine this with a new methodology to parameterise the projected time-evolution of CFs. We demonstrate how, when conditioned upon these time-dependent CFs, an existing, well validated and widely used WG can be used to generate non-stationary simulations of future climate that are consistent with probabilistic outputs from the Met Office Hadley Centre's Perturbed Physics Ensemble. The WG enables extensive sampling of natural variability and climate model uncertainty, providing the basis for development of robust water resources management strategies in the context of a non-stationary climate.

Integrating Solar Power onto the Electric Grid - Bridging the Gap between Atmospheric Science, Engineering and Economics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghonima, M. S.; Yang, H.; Zhong, X.; Ozge, B.; Sahu, D. K.; Kim, C. K.; Babacan, O.; Hanna, R.; Kurtz, B.; Mejia, F. A.; Nguyen, A.; Urquhart, B.; Chow, C. W.; Mathiesen, P.; Bosch, J.; Wang, G.

2015-12-01

One of the main obstacles to high penetrations of solar power is the variable nature of solar power generation. To mitigate variability, grid operators have to schedule additional reliability resources, at considerable expense, to ensure that load requirements are met by generation. Thus despite the cost of solar PV decreasing, the cost of integrating solar power will increase as penetration of solar resources onto the electric grid increases. There are three principal tools currently available to mitigate variability impacts: (i) flexible generation, (ii) storage, either virtual (demand response) or physical devices and (iii) solar forecasting. Storage devices are a powerful tool capable of ensuring smooth power output from renewable resources. However, the high cost of storage is prohibitive and markets are still being designed to leverage their full potential and mitigate their limitation (e.g. empty storage). Solar forecasting provides valuable information on the daily net load profile and upcoming ramps (increasing or decreasing solar power output) thereby providing the grid advance warning to schedule ancillary generation more accurately, or curtail solar power output. In order to develop solar forecasting as a tool that can be utilized by the grid operators we identified two focus areas: (i) develop solar forecast technology and improve solar forecast accuracy and (ii) develop forecasts that can be incorporated within existing grid planning and operation infrastructure. The first issue required atmospheric science and engineering research, while the second required detailed knowledge of energy markets, and power engineering. Motivated by this background we will emphasize area (i) in this talk and provide an overview of recent advancements in solar forecasting especially in two areas: (a) Numerical modeling tools for coastal stratocumulus to improve scheduling in the day-ahead California energy market. (b) Development of a sky imager to provide short term forecasts (0-20 min ahead) to improve optimization and control of equipment on distribution feeders with high penetration of solar. Leveraging such tools that have seen extensive use in the atmospheric sciences supports the development of accurate physics-based solar forecast models. Directions for future research are also provided.

Characterizing a Century of Climate and Hydrological Variability of a Mediterranean and Mountainous Watersheds: the Durance River Case-Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mathevet, T.; Kuentz, A.; Gailhard, J.; Andreassian, V.

2013-12-01

Improving the understanding of mountain watersheds hydrological variability is a great scientific issue, for both researchers and water resources managers, such as Electricite de France (Energy and Hydropower Company). The past and current context of climate variability enhances the interest on this topic, since multi-purposes water resources management is highly sensitive to this variability. The Durance River watershed (14000 km2), situated in the French Alps, is a good example of the complexity of this issue. It is characterized by a variety of hydrological processes (from snowy to Mediterranean regimes) and a wide range of anthropogenic influences (hydropower, irrigation, flood control, tourism and water supply), mixing potential causes of changes in its hydrological regimes. As water related stakes are numerous in this watershed, improving knowledge on the hydrological variability of the Durance River appears to be essential. In this presentation, we would like to focus on a methodology we developed to build long-term historical hydrometeorological time-series, based on atmospheric reanalysis (20CR : 20th Century Reanalysis) and historical local observations. This methodology allowed us to generate precipitation, air temperature and streamflow time-series at a daily time-step for a sample of 22 watersheds, for the 1883-2010 period. These long-term streamflow reconstructions have been validated thanks to historical searches that allowed to bring to light ten long historical series of daily streamflows, beginning on the early 20th century. Reconstructions appear to have rather good statistical properties, with good correlation (greater than 0.8) and limited mean and variance bias (less than 5%). Then, these long-term hydrometeorological time-series allowed us to characterize the past variability in terms of available water resources, droughts or hydrological regime. These analyses help water resources managers to better know the range of hydrological variabilities, which are usually greatly underestimated with classical available time-series (less than 50 years).

Water management in the Roman world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dermody, Brian J.; van Beek, Rens L. P. H.; Meeks, Elijah; Klein Goldewijk, Kees; Bierkens, Marc F. P.; Scheidel, Walter; Wassen, Martin J.; van der Velde, Ype; Dekker, Stefan C.

2014-05-01

Climate variability can have extreme impacts on societies in regions that are water-limited for agriculture. A society's ability to manage its water resources in such environments is critical to its long-term viability. Water management can involve improving agricultural yields through in-situ irrigation or redistributing water resources through trade in food. Here, we explore how such water management strategies affected the resilience of the Roman Empire to climate variability in the water-limited region of the Mediterranean. Using the large-scale hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB and estimates of landcover based on the Historical Database of the Global Environment (HYDE) we generate potential agricultural yield maps under variable climate. HYDE maps of population density in conjunction with potential yield estimates are used to develop maps of agricultural surplus and deficit. The surplus and deficit regions are abstracted to nodes on a water redistribution network based on the Stanford Geospatial Network Model of the Roman World (ORBIS). This demand-driven, water redistribution network allows us to quantitatively explore how water management strategies such as irrigation and food trade improved the resilience of the Roman Empire to climate variability.

AOIPS water resources data management system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vanwie, P.

1977-01-01

The text and computer-generated displays used to demonstrate the AOIPS (Atmospheric and Oceanographic Information Processing System) water resources data management system are investigated. The system was developed to assist hydrologists in analyzing the physical processes occurring in watersheds. It was designed to alleviate some of the problems encountered while investigating the complex interrelationships of variables such as land-cover type, topography, precipitation, snow melt, surface runoff, evapotranspiration, and streamflow rates. The system has an interactive image processing capability and a color video display to display results as they are obtained.

Assessing climate change impacts on the near-term stability of the wind energy resource over the United States

PubMed Central

Pryor, S. C.; Barthelmie, R. J.

2011-01-01

The energy sector comprises approximately two-thirds of global total greenhouse gas emissions. For this and other reasons, renewable energy resources including wind power are being increasingly harnessed to provide electricity generation potential with negligible emissions of carbon dioxide. The wind energy resource is naturally a function of the climate system because the “fuel” is the incident wind speed and thus is determined by the atmospheric circulation. Some recent articles have reported historical declines in measured near-surface wind speeds, leading some to question the continued viability of the wind energy industry. Here we briefly articulate the challenges inherent in accurately quantifying and attributing historical tendencies and making robust projections of likely future wind resources. We then analyze simulations from the current generation of regional climate models and show, at least for the next 50 years, the wind resource in the regions of greatest wind energy penetration will not move beyond the historical envelope of variability. Thus this work suggests that the wind energy industry can, and will, continue to make a contribution to electricity provision in these regions for at least the next several decades. PMID:21536905

Assessing climate change impacts on the near-term stability of the wind energy resource over the United States.

PubMed

Pryor, S C; Barthelmie, R J

2011-05-17

The energy sector comprises approximately two-thirds of global total greenhouse gas emissions. For this and other reasons, renewable energy resources including wind power are being increasingly harnessed to provide electricity generation potential with negligible emissions of carbon dioxide. The wind energy resource is naturally a function of the climate system because the "fuel" is the incident wind speed and thus is determined by the atmospheric circulation. Some recent articles have reported historical declines in measured near-surface wind speeds, leading some to question the continued viability of the wind energy industry. Here we briefly articulate the challenges inherent in accurately quantifying and attributing historical tendencies and making robust projections of likely future wind resources. We then analyze simulations from the current generation of regional climate models and show, at least for the next 50 years, the wind resource in the regions of greatest wind energy penetration will not move beyond the historical envelope of variability. Thus this work suggests that the wind energy industry can, and will, continue to make a contribution to electricity provision in these regions for at least the next several decades.

Revenue Sufficiency and Reliability in a Zero Marginal Cost Future

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Frew, Bethany A.

Features of existing wholesale electricity markets, such as administrative pricing rules and policy-based reliability standards, can distort market incentives from allowing generators sufficient opportunities to recover both fixed and variable costs. Moreover, these challenges can be amplified by other factors, including (1) inelastic demand resulting from a lack of price signal clarity, (2) low- or near-zero marginal cost generation, particularly arising from low natural gas fuel prices and variable generation (VG), such as wind and solar, and (3) the variability and uncertainty of this VG. As power systems begin to incorporate higher shares of VG, many questions arise about themore » suitability of the existing marginal-cost-based price formation, primarily within an energy-only market structure, to ensure the economic viability of resources that might be needed to provide system reliability. This article discusses these questions and provides a summary of completed and ongoing modelling-based work at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory to better understand the impacts of evolving power systems on reliability and revenue sufficiency.« less

Revenue Sufficiency and Reliability in a Zero Marginal Cost Future: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Frew, Bethany A.; Milligan, Michael; Brinkman, Greg

Features of existing wholesale electricity markets, such as administrative pricing rules and policy-based reliability standards, can distort market incentives from allowing generators sufficient opportunities to recover both fixed and variable costs. Moreover, these challenges can be amplified by other factors, including (1) inelastic demand resulting from a lack of price signal clarity, (2) low- or near-zero marginal cost generation, particularly arising from low natural gas fuel prices and variable generation (VG), such as wind and solar, and (3) the variability and uncertainty of this VG. As power systems begin to incorporate higher shares of VG, many questions arise about themore » suitability of the existing marginal-cost-based price formation, primarily within an energy-only market structure, to ensure the economic viability of resources that might be needed to provide system reliability. This article discusses these questions and provides a summary of completed and ongoing modelling-based work at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory to better understand the impacts of evolving power systems on reliability and revenue sufficiency.« less

Scheme for the generation of freely traveling optical trio coherent states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duc, Truong Minh; Dat, Tran Quang; An, Nguyen Ba; Kim, Jaewan

2013-08-01

Trio coherent states (TCSs) are non-Gaussian three-mode entangled states which can serve as a useful resource for continuous-variable quantum tasks, so their generation is of primary importance. Schemes exist to generate stable TCSs in terms of vibrational motion of a trapped ion inside a crystal. However, to perform quantum communication and distributed quantum computation the states should be shared beforehand among distant parties. That is, their modes should be able to be directed to different desired locations in space. In this work, we propose an experimental setup to generate such free-traveling TCSs in terms of optical fields. Our scheme uses standard physical resources, such as coherent states, balanced beam splitters, phase shifters, nonideal on-off photodetectors, and realistic weak cross-Kerr nonlinearities, without the need of single photons or homodyne or heterodyne measurements. We study the dependences of the fidelity of the state generated by our scheme with respect to the target TCS and the corresponding generation probability for the parameters involved. In theory, the fidelity could be nearly perfect for whatever weak nonlinearities τ and low photodetector efficiency η, provided that the amplitude |α| of an input coherent state is large enough, namely, |α|≥5/(ητ).

Understanding the influence of power and empathic perspective-taking on collaborative natural resource management.

PubMed

Wald, Dara M; Segal, Elizabeth A; Johnston, Erik W; Vinze, Ajay

2017-09-01

Public engagement in collaborative natural resource management necessitates shared understanding and collaboration. Empathic perspective-taking is a critical facilitator of shared understanding and positive social interactions, such as collaboration. Yet there is currently little understanding about how to reliably generate empathic perspective-taking and collaboration, particularly in situations involving the unequal distribution of environmental resources or power. Here we examine how experiencing the loss or gain of social power influenced empathic perspective-taking and behavior within a computer-mediated scenario. Participants (n = 180) were randomly assigned to each condition: high resources, low resources, lose resources, gain resources. Contrary to our expectations, participants in the perspective-taking condition, specifically those who lost resources, also lost perspective taking and exhibited egoistic behavior. This finding suggests that resource control within the collaborative process is a key contextual variable that influences perspective-taking and collaborative behavior. Moreover, the observed relationship between perspective-taking and egoistic behavior within a collaborative resource sharing exercise suggests that when resource control or access is unequal, interventions to promote perspective-taking deserve careful consideration. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Milligan, Michael; Bloom, Aaron P; Townsend, Aaron

Variable generation (VG) can reduce market prices over time and also the energy that other suppliers can sell in the market. The suppliers that are needed to provide capacity and flexibility to meet the long-term reliability requirements may, therefore, earn less revenue. This chapter discusses the topics of resource adequacy and revenue sufficiency - that is, determining and acquiring the quantity of capacity that will be needed at some future date and ensuring that those suppliers that offer the capacity receive sufficient revenue to recover their costs. The focus is on the investment time horizon and the installation of sufficientmore » generation capability. First, the chapter discusses resource adequacy, including newer methods of determining adequacy metrics. The chapter then focuses on revenue sufficiency and how suppliers have sufficient opportunity to recover their total costs. The chapter closes with a description of the mechanisms traditionally adopted by electricity markets to mitigate the issues of resource adequacy and revenue sufficiency and discusses the most recent market design changes to address these issues.« less

Eastern Renewable Generation Integration Study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bloom, Aaron; Townsend, Aaron; Palchak, David

2016-08-01

The Eastern Interconnection (EI) is one of the largest power systems in the world, and its size and complexity have historically made it difficult to study in high levels of detail in a modeling environment. In order to understand how this system might be impacted by high penetrations (30% of total annual generation) of wind and solar photovoltaic (PV) during steady state operations, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) conducted the Eastern Renewable Generation Integration Study (ERGIS). This study investigates certain aspects of the reliability and economic efficiency problem faced by power systemmore » operators and planners. Specifically, the study models the ability to meet electricity demand at a 5-minute time interval by scheduling resources for known ramping events, while maintaining adequate reserves to meet random variation in supply and demand, and contingency events. To measure the ability to meet these requirements, a unit commitment and economic dispatch (UC&ED) model is employed to simulate power system operations. The economic costs of managing this system are presented using production costs, a traditional UC&ED metric that does not include any consideration of long-term fixed costs. ERGIS simulated one year of power system operations to understand regional and sub-hourly impacts of wind and PV by developing a comprehensive UC&ED model of the EI. In the analysis, it is shown that, under the study assumptions, generation from approximately 400 GW of combined wind and PV capacity can be balanced on the transmission system at a 5-minute level. In order to address the significant computational burdens associated with a model of this detail we apply novel computing techniques to dramatically reduce simulation solve time while simultaneously increasing the resolution and fidelity of the analysis. Our results also indicate that high penetrations of wind and PV (collectively variable generation (VG)), significantly impact the operation of traditional generating resources and cause these resources to be used less frequently and operate across a broader output range because wind and PV have lower operating costs and variable output levels.« less

Development of a Core Clinical Dataset to Characterize Serious Illness, Injuries, and Resource Requirements for Acute Medical Responses to Public Health Emergencies.

PubMed

Murphy, David J; Rubinson, Lewis; Blum, James; Isakov, Alexander; Bhagwanjee, Statish; Cairns, Charles B; Cobb, J Perren; Sevransky, Jonathan E

2015-11-01

In developed countries, public health systems have become adept at rapidly identifying the etiology and impact of public health emergencies. However, within the time course of clinical responses, shortfalls in readily analyzable patient-level data limit capabilities to understand clinical course, predict outcomes, ensure resource availability, and evaluate the effectiveness of diagnostic and therapeutic strategies for seriously ill and injured patients. To be useful in the timeline of a public health emergency, multi-institutional clinical investigation systems must be in place to rapidly collect, analyze, and disseminate detailed clinical information regarding patients across prehospital, emergency department, and acute care hospital settings, including ICUs. As an initial step to near real-time clinical learning during public health emergencies, we sought to develop an "all-hazards" core dataset to characterize serious illness and injuries and the resource requirements for acute medical response across the care continuum. A multidisciplinary panel of clinicians, public health professionals, and researchers with expertise in public health emergencies. Group consensus process. The consensus process included regularly scheduled conference calls, electronic communications, and an in-person meeting to generate candidate variables. Candidate variables were then reviewed by the group to meet the competing criteria of utility and feasibility resulting in the core dataset. The 40-member panel generated 215 candidate variables for potential dataset inclusion. The final dataset includes 140 patient-level variables in the domains of demographics and anthropometrics (7), prehospital (11), emergency department (13), diagnosis (8), severity of illness (54), medications and interventions (38), and outcomes (9). The resulting all-hazard core dataset for seriously ill and injured persons provides a foundation to facilitate rapid collection, analyses, and dissemination of information necessary for clinicians, public health officials, and policymakers to optimize public health emergency response. Further work is needed to validate the effectiveness of the dataset in a variety of emergency settings.

Using Supercomputers to Speed Execution of the CAISO/PLEXOS 33% RPS Study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Meyers, C; Streitz, F; Yao, Y

2011-09-19

The study's official title is 'ISO Study of Operational Requirements and Market Impacts at 33% Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS).' The stated objectives are twofold: (1) identifying operational requirements and resource options to reliably operate the ISO-controlled grid under a 33% RPS in 2020; and (2) inform market, planning, and policy/regulatory decisions by the ISO, state agencies, market participants, and other stakeholders. The first of these objectives requires the hourly estimates of integration requirements, measured in terms of operational ramp, load following and regulation capacity and ramp rates, as well as additional capacity to resolve operational violations. It also involves considerationmore » of other variables that affect the results, such as the impact of different mixes of renewable technologies, and the impact of forecasting error and variability. The second objective entails supporting the CPUC to identify long-term procurement planning needs, costs, and options, as well as informing other decisions made by the CPUC and state agencies. For the ISO itself this includes informing state-wide transmission planning needs for renewables up to a 33% RPS, and informing design of wholesale markets for energy and ancillary services to facilitate provision of integration capacities. The study is designed in two phases. The first (current) phase is focused on operational requirements and addressing these requirements with existing and new conventional fossil generation; for instance, gas turbines and/or combined cycle units. The second (planned) phase will address the same operational requirements with a combination of conventional fossil generation resources, new non-generation resources, and a renewable resource dispatch. There are seven different scenarios considered in the current phase: a 20% RPS reference case; four 33% RPS cases (a reference case, a high out-of-state case, a high distributed generation case, and a low load case); an alternative 27.5% RPS case; and an all-gas case (no new renewables after 2008). In addition, the CPUC is planning a new set of cases that will alter the anticipated sets of runs.« less

Coupled basin-scale water resource models for arid and semiarid regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winter, C.; Springer, E.; Costigan, K.; Fasel, P.; Mniewski, S.; Zyvoloski, G.

2003-04-01

Managers of semi-arid and arid water resources must allocate increasingly variable surface sources and limited groundwater resources to growing demands. This challenge is leading to a new generation of detailed computational models that link multiple interacting sources and demands. We will discuss a new computational model of arid region hydrology that we are parameterizing for the upper Rio Grande Basin of the United States. The model consists of linked components for the atmosphere (the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System, RAMS), surface hydrology (the Los Alamos Distributed Hydrologic System, LADHS), and groundwater (the Finite Element Heat and Mass code, FEHM), and the couplings between them. The model runs under the Parallel Application WorkSpace software developed at Los Alamos for applications running on large distributed memory computers. RAMS simulates regional meteorology coupled to global climate data on the one hand and land surface hydrology on the other. LADHS generates runoff by infiltration or saturation excess mechanisms, as well as interception, evapotranspiration, and snow accumulation and melt. FEHM simulates variably saturated flow and heat transport in three dimensions. A key issue is to increase the components’ spatial and temporal resolution to account for changes in topography and other rapidly changing variables that affect results such as soil moisture distribution or groundwater recharge. Thus, RAMS’ smallest grid is 5 km on a side, LADHS uses 100 m spacing, while FEHM concentrates processing on key volumes by means of an unstructured grid. Couplings within our model are based on new scaling methods that link groundwater-groundwater systems and streams to aquifers and we are developing evapotranspiration methods based on detailed calculations of latent heat and vegetative cover. Simulations of precipitation and soil moisture for the 1992-93 El Nino year will be used to demonstrate the approach and suggest further needs.

Optimizing the assessment of pediatric injury severity in low-resource settings: Consensus generation through a modified Delphi analysis.

PubMed

St-Louis, Etienne; Deckelbaum, Dan Leon; Baird, Robert; Razek, Tarek

2017-06-01

Although a plethora of pediatric injury severity scoring systems is available, many of them present important challenges and limitations in the low resource setting. Our aim is to generate consensus among a group of experts regarding the optimal parameters, outcomes, and methods of estimating injury severity for pediatric trauma patients in low resource settings. A systematic review of the literature was conducted to identify and compare existing injury scores used in pediatric patients. Qualitative data was extracted from the systematic review, including scoring parameters, settings and outcomes. In order to establish consensus regarding which of these elements are most adapted to pediatric patients in low-resource settings, they were subjected to a modified Delphi survey for external validation. The Delphi process is a structured communication technique that relies on a panel of experts to develop a systematic, interactive consensus method. We invited a group of 38 experts, including adult and pediatric surgeons, emergency physicians and anesthesiologists trauma team leaders from a level 1 trauma center in Montreal, Canada, and a pediatric referral trauma hospital in Santiago, Chile to participate in two successive rounds of our survey. Consensus was reached regarding various features of an ideal pediatric trauma score. Specifically, our experts agreed pediatric trauma scoring tool should differ from its adult counterpart, that it can be derived from point of care data available at first assessment, that blood pressure is an important variable to include in a predictive model for pediatric trauma outcomes, that blood pressure is a late but specific marker of shock in pediatric patients, that pulse rate is a more sensitive marker of hemodynamic instability than blood pressure, that an assessment of airway status should be included as a predictive variable for pediatric trauma outcomes, that the AVPU classification of neurologic status is simple and reliable in the acute setting, and more so than GCS at all ages. Therefore, we conclude that an opportunity exists to develop a new pediatric trauma score, combining the above consensus-generating ideas, that would be best adapted for use in low-resource settings. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate-based models for pulsed resources improve predictability of consumer population dynamics: outbreaks of house mice in forest ecosystems.

PubMed

Holland, E Penelope; James, Alex; Ruscoe, Wendy A; Pech, Roger P; Byrom, Andrea E

2015-01-01

Accurate predictions of the timing and magnitude of consumer responses to episodic seeding events (masts) are important for understanding ecosystem dynamics and for managing outbreaks of invasive species generated by masts. While models relating consumer populations to resource fluctuations have been developed successfully for a range of natural and modified ecosystems, a critical gap that needs addressing is better prediction of resource pulses. A recent model used change in summer temperature from one year to the next (ΔT) for predicting masts for forest and grassland plants in New Zealand. We extend this climate-based method in the framework of a model for consumer-resource dynamics to predict invasive house mouse (Mus musculus) outbreaks in forest ecosystems. Compared with previous mast models based on absolute temperature, the ΔT method for predicting masts resulted in an improved model for mouse population dynamics. There was also a threshold effect of ΔT on the likelihood of an outbreak occurring. The improved climate-based method for predicting resource pulses and consumer responses provides a straightforward rule of thumb for determining, with one year's advance warning, whether management intervention might be required in invaded ecosystems. The approach could be applied to consumer-resource systems worldwide where climatic variables are used to model the size and duration of resource pulses, and may have particular relevance for ecosystems where global change scenarios predict increased variability in climatic events.

Use of a scenario-neutral approach to identify the key hydro-meteorological attributes that impact runoff from a natural catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Danlu; Westra, Seth; Maier, Holger R.

2017-11-01

Scenario-neutral approaches are being used increasingly for assessing the potential impact of climate change on water resource systems, as these approaches allow the performance of these systems to be evaluated independently of climate change projections. However, practical implementations of these approaches are still scarce, with a key limitation being the difficulty of generating a range of plausible future time series of hydro-meteorological data. In this study we apply a recently developed inverse stochastic generation approach to support the scenario-neutral analysis, and thus identify the key hydro-meteorological variables to which the system is most sensitive. The stochastic generator simulates synthetic hydro-meteorological time series that represent plausible future changes in (1) the average, extremes and seasonal patterns of rainfall; and (2) the average values of temperature (Ta), relative humidity (RH) and wind speed (uz) as variables that drive PET. These hydro-meteorological time series are then fed through a conceptual rainfall-runoff model to simulate the potential changes in runoff as a function of changes in the hydro-meteorological variables, and runoff sensitivity is assessed with both correlation and Sobol' sensitivity analyses. The method was applied to a case study catchment in South Australia, and the results showed that the most important hydro-meteorological attributes for runoff were winter rainfall followed by the annual average rainfall, while the PET-related meteorological variables had comparatively little impact. The high importance of winter rainfall can be related to the winter-dominated nature of both the rainfall and runoff regimes in this catchment. The approach illustrated in this study can greatly enhance our understanding of the key hydro-meteorological attributes and processes that are likely to drive catchment runoff under a changing climate, thus enabling the design of tailored climate impact assessments to specific water resource systems.

Climate and Water Vulnerability of the US Electricity Grid Under High Penetrations of Renewable Energy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macknick, J.; Miara, A.; O'Connell, M.; Vorosmarty, C. J.; Newmark, R. L.

2017-12-01

The US power sector is highly dependent upon water resources for reliable operations, primarily for thermoelectric cooling and hydropower technologies. Changes in the availability and temperature of water resources can limit electricity generation and cause outages at power plants, which substantially affect grid-level operational decisions. While the effects of water variability and climate changes on individual power plants are well documented, prior studies have not identified the significance of these impacts at the regional systems-level at which the grid operates, including whether there are risks for large-scale blackouts, brownouts, or increases in production costs. Adequately assessing electric grid system-level impacts requires detailed power sector modeling tools that can incorporate electric transmission infrastructure, capacity reserves, and other grid characteristics. Here, we present for the first time, a study of how climate and water variability affect operations of the power sector, considering different electricity sector configurations (low vs. high renewable) and environmental regulations. We use a case study of the US Eastern Interconnection, building off the Eastern Renewable Generation Integration Study (ERGIS) that explored operational challenges of high penetrations of renewable energy on the grid. We evaluate climate-water constraints on individual power plants, using the Thermoelectric Power and Thermal Pollution (TP2M) model coupled with the PLEXOS electricity production cost model, in the context of broader electricity grid operations. Using a five minute time step for future years, we analyze scenarios of 10% to 30% renewable energy penetration along with considerations of river temperature regulations to compare the cost, performance, and reliability tradeoffs of water-dependent thermoelectric generation and variable renewable energy technologies under climate stresses. This work provides novel insights into the resilience and reliability of different configurations of the US electric grid subject to changing climate conditions.

Water Quality Variable Estimation using Partial Least Squares Regression and Multi-Scale Remote Sensing.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peterson, K. T.; Wulamu, A.

2017-12-01

Water, essential to all living organisms, is one of the Earth's most precious resources. Remote sensing offers an ideal approach to monitor water quality over traditional in-situ techniques that are highly time and resource consuming. Utilizing a multi-scale approach, incorporating data from handheld spectroscopy, UAS based hyperspectal, and satellite multispectral images were collected in coordination with in-situ water quality samples for the two midwestern watersheds. The remote sensing data was modeled and correlated to the in-situ water quality variables including chlorophyll content (Chl), turbidity, and total dissolved solids (TDS) using Normalized Difference Spectral Indices (NDSI) and Partial Least Squares Regression (PLSR). The results of the study supported the original hypothesis that correlating water quality variables with remotely sensed data benefits greatly from the use of more complex modeling and regression techniques such as PLSR. The final results generated from the PLSR analysis resulted in much higher R2 values for all variables when compared to NDSI. The combination of NDSI and PLSR analysis also identified key wavelengths for identification that aligned with previous study's findings. This research displays the advantages and future for complex modeling and machine learning techniques to improve water quality variable estimation from spectral data.

Managing ecotourism visitation in protected areas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Marion, J.L.; Farrell, T.A.; Lindberg, Kreg; Wood, Megan Epler; Engeldrum, David

1998-01-01

Ecotourism management seeks to integrate and balance several potentially conflicting objectives: protection of natural and cultural resources, provision of recreation opportunities and generation of economic benefits. In the absence of effective planning and management, ecotourism can lead to significant negative impacts on vegetation, soil, water, wildlife, historic resources, cultures, and visitor experiences. This chapter reviews visitor-related natural resource and experience impacts associated with ecotourism within protected areas. The influence of factors that control the nature and extent of impacts are also reviewed, including type and amount of use, the variable resistance and resilience of environmental attributes such as vegetation and soil types, and the role of management in shaping visitation, resources and facilities to support visitation while minimizing associated impacts. Implications for managing the effects of protected area visitation are highlighted, including carrying capacity decision frameworks and selecting management strategies and tactics.

Market Evolution: Wholesale Electricity Market Design for 21st Century Power Systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cochran, Jaquelin; Miller, Mackay; Milligan, Michael

2013-10-01

Demand for affordable, reliable, domestically sourced, and low-carbon electricity is on the rise. This growing demand is driven in part by evolving public policy priorities, especially reducing the health and environmental impacts of electricity service and expanding energy access to under-served customers. Consequently, variable renewable energy resources comprise an increasing share ofelectricity generation globally. At the same time, new opportunities for addressing the variability of renewables are being strengthened through advances in smart grids, communications, and technologies that enable dispatchable demand response and distributed generation to extend to the mass market. A key challenge of merging these opportunities is marketmore » design -- determining how to createincentives and compensate providers justly for attributes and performance that ensure a reliable and secure grid -- in a context that fully realizes the potential of a broad array of sources of flexibility in both the wholesale power and retail markets. This report reviews the suite of wholesale power market designs in use and under consideration to ensure adequacy, security, and flexibilityin a landscape of significant variable renewable energy. It also examines considerations needed to ensure that wholesale market designs are inclusive of emerging technologies, such as demand response, distributed generation, and storage.« less

Effects of functional constraints and opportunism on the functional structure of a vertebrate predator assemblage.

PubMed

Farias, Ariel A; Jaksic, Fabian M

2007-03-01

1. Within mainstream ecological literature, functional structure has been viewed as resulting from the interplay of species interactions, resource levels and environmental variability. Classical models state that interspecific competition generates species segregation and guild formation in stable saturated environments, whereas opportunism causes species aggregation on abundant resources in variable unsaturated situations. 2. Nevertheless, intrinsic functional constraints may result in species-specific differences in resource-use capabilities. This could force some degree of functional structure without assuming other putative causes. However, the influence of such constraints has rarely been tested, and their relative contribution to observed patterns has not been quantified. 3. We used a multiple null-model approach to quantify the magnitude and direction (non-random aggregation or divergence) of the functional structure of a vertebrate predator assemblage exposed to variable prey abundance over an 18-year period. Observed trends were contrasted with predictions from null-models designed in an orthogonal fashion to account independently for the effects of functional constraints and opportunism. Subsequently, the unexplained variation was regressed against environmental variables to search for evidence of interspecific competition. 4. Overall, null-models accounting for functional constraints showed the best fit to the observed data, and suggested an effect of this factor in modulating predator opportunistic responses. However, regression models on residual variation indicated that such an effect was dependent on both total and relative abundance of principal (small mammals) and alternative (arthropods, birds, reptiles) prey categories. 5. In addition, no clear evidence for interspecific competition was found, but differential delays in predator functional responses could explain some of the unaccounted variation. Thus, we call for caution when interpreting empirical data in the context of classical models assuming synchronous responses of consumers to resource levels.

2025 California Demand Response Potential Study - Charting California’s Demand Response Future. Final Report on Phase 2 Results

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Alstone, Peter; Potter, Jennifer; Piette, Mary Ann

California’s legislative and regulatory goals for renewable energy are changing the power grid’s dynamics. Increased variable generation resource penetration connected to the bulk power system, as well as, distributed energy resources (DERs) connected to the distribution system affect the grid’s reliable operation over many different time scales (e.g., days to hours to minutes to seconds). As the state continues this transition, it will require careful planning to ensure resources with the right characteristics are available to meet changing grid management needs. Demand response (DR) has the potential to provide important resources for keeping the electricity grid stable and efficient, tomore » defer upgrades to generation, transmission and distribution systems, and to deliver customer economic benefits. This study estimates the potential size and cost of future DR resources for California’s three investor-owned utilities (IOUs): Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E), Southern California Edison Company (SCE), and San Diego Gas & Electric Company (SDG&E). Our goal is to provide data-driven insights as the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) evaluates how to enhance DR’s role in meeting California’s resource planning needs and operational requirements. We address two fundamental questions: 1. What cost-competitive DR service types will meet California’s future grid needs as it moves towards clean energy and advanced infrastructure? 2. What is the size and cost of the expected resource base for the DR service types?« less

Quantum random bit generation using energy fluctuations in stimulated Raman scattering.

PubMed

Bustard, Philip J; England, Duncan G; Nunn, Josh; Moffatt, Doug; Spanner, Michael; Lausten, Rune; Sussman, Benjamin J

2013-12-02

Random number sequences are a critical resource in modern information processing systems, with applications in cryptography, numerical simulation, and data sampling. We introduce a quantum random number generator based on the measurement of pulse energy quantum fluctuations in Stokes light generated by spontaneously-initiated stimulated Raman scattering. Bright Stokes pulse energy fluctuations up to five times the mean energy are measured with fast photodiodes and converted to unbiased random binary strings. Since the pulse energy is a continuous variable, multiple bits can be extracted from a single measurement. Our approach can be generalized to a wide range of Raman active materials; here we demonstrate a prototype using the optical phonon line in bulk diamond.

Stochastic Watershed Models for Risk Based Decision Making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vogel, R. M.

2017-12-01

Over half a century ago, the Harvard Water Program introduced the field of operational or synthetic hydrology providing stochastic streamflow models (SSMs), which could generate ensembles of synthetic streamflow traces useful for hydrologic risk management. The application of SSMs, based on streamflow observations alone, revolutionized water resources planning activities, yet has fallen out of favor due, in part, to their inability to account for the now nearly ubiquitous anthropogenic influences on streamflow. This commentary advances the modern equivalent of SSMs, termed `stochastic watershed models' (SWMs) useful as input to nearly all modern risk based water resource decision making approaches. SWMs are deterministic watershed models implemented using stochastic meteorological series, model parameters and model errors, to generate ensembles of streamflow traces that represent the variability in possible future streamflows. SWMs combine deterministic watershed models, which are ideally suited to accounting for anthropogenic influences, with recent developments in uncertainty analysis and principles of stochastic simulation

Use of health-care services during chemotherapy for breast cancer.

PubMed

Baena-Cañada, José M; Estalella-Mendoza, Sara; Rosado-Varela, Petra; Expósito-Álvarez, Inmaculada; González-Guerrero, Macarena; Díaz-Blanco, María C; Cortés-Carmona, Cristina; Ramírez-Daffós, Patricia; Arriola-Arellano, Esperanza; Rueda-Ramos, Antonio; Solana-Grimaldi, Lourdes; Benítez-Rodríguez, Encarnación

2012-12-01

The authors analyse the effect of chemotherapy on the use of additional health-care resources and report the clinical and demographic factors associated with such use. In women with breast cancer, eligible to receive first-line (neo)-adjuvant or palliative chemotherapy, consultations with health-care practitioners (general practitioners [GPs] and specialists) and admissions to emergency department and to hospital were prospectively recorded. Differences were studied according to these clinical and demographic variables: age, tumour stage, performance status, weight, height, body mass index, surgery type, chemotherapy type, number of courses, comorbidity, marital status, educational level, social status and occupational status. Among 268 patients, 124 (42.2%) required one or more non-protocol health-care encounters. 180 visits were generated (GP 23.3%, specialist 35.5%, emergency department admission 21.1%, hospital admission 8.3%, others 3.3% and more than one resource 8.3%). Of total consultations 150 (83.3%) were chemotherapy-related. The number of visits was higher in the first courses. Fever and infection were the most frequent reasons for consultation in all resources. The dependent variable: 'need for non-protocol health-care encounter in any course' was statistically associated with age (p=0.002) and marital status (p=0.021); no association was found with other variables. In multivariate analysis, age (p=0.001) and marital status (p=0.009) remained statistically significant. Younger and married patients consumed less extra health resources. Many patients receiving chemotherapy consume health-care resources in addition to their routine visits, usually treatment-related. Patients consult less in the later courses. Older and unmarried women in particular need extra care during chemotherapy. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Quebec Rural Emergency Department Project: A Cross-Sectional Study of a Potential Two-Pronged Strategy in the Knowledge Transfer Process

PubMed Central

Poitras, Julien; Chauny, Jean-Marc; Lévesque, Jean-Frédéric; Ouimet, Mathieu; Dupuis, Gilles; Tanguay, Alain; Simard-Racine, Geneviève

2015-01-01

Introduction Health services research generates useful knowledge. Promotion of implementation of this knowledge in medical practice is essential. Prior to initiation of a major study on rural emergency departments (EDs), we deployed two knowledge transfer strategies designed to generate interest and engagement from potential knowledge users. The objective of this paper was to review: 1) a combined project launch and media press release strategy, and 2) a pre-study survey designed to survey potential knowledge users’ opinions on the proposed study variables. Materials and Methods We evaluated the impact of the project launch (presentation at two conferences hosted by key stakeholders) and media press release via a survey of participants/stakeholders and by calculating the number of media interview requests and reports generated. We used a pre-study survey to collect potential key stakeholder’ opinions on the study variables. Results Twenty-one of Quebec’s 26 rural EDs participated in the pre-study survey (81% participation rate). The press release about the study generated 51 press articles and 20 media request for interviews, and contributed to public awareness of a major rural research initiative. In the pre-study survey, thirteen participants (46%) mentioned prior knowledge of the research project. Results from the pre-study survey revealed that all of the potential study variables were considered to be relevant for inclusion in the research project. Respondents also proposed additional variables of interest, including factors promoting retention of human resources. Conclusions The present study demonstrated the potential utility of a two-pronged knowledge transfer strategy, including a combined formal launch and press release, and a pre-study survey designed to ensure that the included variables were of interest to participants and stakeholders. PMID:25849328

Sensitivity of power system operations to projected changes in water availability due to climate change: the Western U.S. case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voisin, N.; Macknick, J.; Fu, T.; O'Connell, M.; Zhou, T.; Brinkman, G.

2017-12-01

Water resources provide multiple critical services to the electrical grid through hydropower technologies, from generation to regulation of the electric grid (frequency, capacity reserve). Water resources can also represent vulnerabilities to the electric grid, as hydropower and thermo-electric facilities require water for operations. In the Western U.S., hydropower and thermo-electric plants that rely on fresh surface water represent 67% of the generating capacity. Prior studies have looked at the impact of change in water availability under future climate conditions on expected generating capacity in the Western U.S., but have not evaluated operational risks or changes resulting from climate. In this study, we systematically assess the impact of change in water availability and air temperatures on power operations, i.e. we take into account the different grid services that water resources can provide to the electric grid (generation, regulation) in the system-level context of inter-regional coordination through the electric transmission network. We leverage the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) hydrology simulations under historical and future climate conditions, and force the large scale river routing- water management model MOSART-WM along with 2010-level sectoral water demands. Changes in monthly hydropower potential generation (including generation and reserves), as well as monthly generation capacity of thermo-electric plants are derived for each power plant in the Western U.S. electric grid. We then utilize the PLEXOS electricity production cost model to optimize power system dispatch and cost decisions for the 2010 infrastructure under 100 years of historical and future (2050 horizon) hydroclimate conditions. We use economic metrics as well as operational metrics such as generation portfolio, emissions, and reserve margins to assess the changes in power system operations between historical and future normal and extreme water availability conditions. We provide insight on how this information can be used to support resource adequacy and grid expansion studies over the Western U.S. in the context of inter-annual variability and climate change.

Multi objective decision making in hybrid energy system design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merino, Gabriel Guillermo

The design of grid-connected photovoltaic wind generator system supplying a farmstead in Nebraska has been undertaken in this dissertation. The design process took into account competing criteria that motivate the use of different sources of energy for electric generation. The criteria considered were 'Financial', 'Environmental', and 'User/System compatibility'. A distance based multi-objective decision making methodology was developed to rank design alternatives. The method is based upon a precedence order imposed upon the design objectives and a distance metric describing the performance of each alternative. This methodology advances previous work by combining ambiguous information about the alternatives with a decision-maker imposed precedence order in the objectives. Design alternatives, defined by the photovoltaic array and wind generator installed capacities, were analyzed using the multi-objective decision making approach. The performance of the design alternatives was determined by simulating the system using hourly data for an electric load for a farmstead and hourly averages of solar irradiation, temperature and wind speed from eight wind-solar energy monitoring sites in Nebraska. The spatial variability of the solar energy resource within the region was assessed by determining semivariogram models to krige hourly and daily solar radiation data. No significant difference was found in the predicted performance of the system when using kriged solar radiation data, with the models generated vs. using actual data. The spatial variability of the combined wind and solar energy resources was included in the design analysis by using fuzzy numbers and arithmetic. The best alternative was dependent upon the precedence order assumed for the main criteria. Alternatives with no PV array or wind generator dominated when the 'Financial' criteria preceded the others. In contrast, alternatives with a nil component of PV array but a high wind generator component, dominated when the 'Environment' objective or the 'User/System compatibility' objectives were more important than the 'Financial' objectives and they also dominated when the three criteria were considered equally important.

Automated Item Generation with Recurrent Neural Networks.

PubMed

von Davier, Matthias

2018-03-12

Utilizing technology for automated item generation is not a new idea. However, test items used in commercial testing programs or in research are still predominantly written by humans, in most cases by content experts or professional item writers. Human experts are a limited resource and testing agencies incur high costs in the process of continuous renewal of item banks to sustain testing programs. Using algorithms instead holds the promise of providing unlimited resources for this crucial part of assessment development. The approach presented here deviates in several ways from previous attempts to solve this problem. In the past, automatic item generation relied either on generating clones of narrowly defined item types such as those found in language free intelligence tests (e.g., Raven's progressive matrices) or on an extensive analysis of task components and derivation of schemata to produce items with pre-specified variability that are hoped to have predictable levels of difficulty. It is somewhat unlikely that researchers utilizing these previous approaches would look at the proposed approach with favor; however, recent applications of machine learning show success in solving tasks that seemed impossible for machines not too long ago. The proposed approach uses deep learning to implement probabilistic language models, not unlike what Google brain and Amazon Alexa use for language processing and generation.

Development of geothermal energy in the Gulf Coast: socio-economic, demographic, and political considerations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Letlow, K.; Lopreato, S.C.; Meriwether, M.

The institutional aspect of the study attempts to identify possible effects of geothermal research, development, and utilization on the area and its inhabitants in three chapters. Chapters I and II address key socio-economic and demographic variables. The initial chapter provides an overview of the area where the resource is located. Major data are presented that can be used to establish a baseline description of the region for comparison over time and to delineate crucial area for future study with regard to geothermal development. The chapter highlights some of the variables that reflect the cultural nature of the Gulf Coast, itsmore » social characteristics, labor force, and service in an attempt to delineate possible problems with and barriers to the development of geothermal energy in the region. The following chapter focuses on the local impacts of geothermal wells and power-generating facilities using data on such variables as size and nature of construction and operating crews. Data are summarized for the areas studied. A flow chart is utilized to describe research that is needed in order to exploit the resource as quickly and effectively as possible. Areas of interface among various parts of the research that will include exchange of data between the social-cultural group and the institutional, legal, environmental, and resource utilization groups are identified. (MCW)« less

Exploring the meteorological potential for planning a high performance European electricity super-grid: optimal power capacity distribution among countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santos-Alamillos, Francisco J.; Brayshaw, David J.; Methven, John; Thomaidis, Nikolaos S.; Ruiz-Arias, José A.; Pozo-Vázquez, David

2017-11-01

The concept of a European super-grid for electricity presents clear advantages for a reliable and affordable renewable power production (photovoltaics and wind). Based on the mean-variance portfolio optimization analysis, we explore optimal scenarios for the allocation of new renewable capacity at national level in order to provide to energy decision-makers guidance about which regions should be mostly targeted to either maximize total production or reduce its day-to-day variability. The results show that the existing distribution of renewable generation capacity across Europe is far from optimal: i.e. a ‘better’ spatial distribution of resources could have been achieved with either a ~31% increase in mean power supply (for the same level of day-to-day variability) or a ~37.5% reduction in day-to-day variability (for the same level of mean productivity). Careful planning of additional increments in renewable capacity at the European level could, however, act to significantly ameliorate this deficiency. The choice of where to deploy resources depends, however, on the objective being pursued—if the goal is to maximize average output, then new capacity is best allocated in the countries with highest resources, whereas investment in additional capacity in a north/south dipole pattern across Europe would act to most reduce daily variations and thus decrease the day-to-day volatility of renewable power supply.

Community temporal variability increases with fluctuating resource availability

PubMed Central

Li, Wei; Stevens, M. Henry H.

2017-01-01

An increase in the quantity of available resources is known to affect temporal variability of aggregate community properties. However, it is unclear how might fluctuations in resource availability alter community-level temporal variability. Here we conduct a microcosm experiment with laboratory protist community subjected to manipulated resource pulses that vary in intensity, duration and time of supply, and examine the impact of fluctuating resource availability on temporal variability of the recipient community. The results showed that the temporal variation of total protist abundance increased with the magnitude of resource pulses, as protist community receiving infrequent resource pulses (i.e., high-magnitude nutrients per pulse) was relatively more unstable than community receiving multiple resource pulses (i.e., low-magnitude nutrients per pulse), although the same total amounts of nutrients were added to each community. Meanwhile, the timing effect of fluctuating resources did not significantly alter community temporal variability. Further analysis showed that fluctuating resource availability increased community temporal variability by increasing the degree of community-wide species synchrony and decreasing the stabilizing effects of dominant species. Hence, the importance of fluctuating resource availability in influencing community stability and the regulatory mechanisms merit more attention, especially when global ecosystems are experiencing high rates of anthropogenic nutrient inputs. PMID:28345592

Community temporal variability increases with fluctuating resource availability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Wei; Stevens, M. Henry H.

2017-03-01

An increase in the quantity of available resources is known to affect temporal variability of aggregate community properties. However, it is unclear how might fluctuations in resource availability alter community-level temporal variability. Here we conduct a microcosm experiment with laboratory protist community subjected to manipulated resource pulses that vary in intensity, duration and time of supply, and examine the impact of fluctuating resource availability on temporal variability of the recipient community. The results showed that the temporal variation of total protist abundance increased with the magnitude of resource pulses, as protist community receiving infrequent resource pulses (i.e., high-magnitude nutrients per pulse) was relatively more unstable than community receiving multiple resource pulses (i.e., low-magnitude nutrients per pulse), although the same total amounts of nutrients were added to each community. Meanwhile, the timing effect of fluctuating resources did not significantly alter community temporal variability. Further analysis showed that fluctuating resource availability increased community temporal variability by increasing the degree of community-wide species synchrony and decreasing the stabilizing effects of dominant species. Hence, the importance of fluctuating resource availability in influencing community stability and the regulatory mechanisms merit more attention, especially when global ecosystems are experiencing high rates of anthropogenic nutrient inputs.

Trust, cooperation, and equality: a psychological analysis of the formation of social capital.

PubMed

Cozzolino, Philip J

2011-06-01

Research suggests that in modern Western culture there is a positive relationship between the equality of resources and the formation of trust and cooperation, two psychological components of social capital. Two studies elucidate the psychological processes underlying that relationship. Study 1 experimentally tested the influence of resource distributions on the formation of trust and intentions to cooperate; individuals receiving a deficit of resources and a surplus of resources evidenced lower levels of social capital (i.e., trust and cooperation) than did individuals receiving equal amounts. Analyses revealed the process was affective for deficit participants and cognitive for surplus participants. Study 2 provided suggestive support for the affective-model of equality and social capital using proxy variables in the 1996 General Social Survey data set. Results suggest support for a causal path of unequal resource distributions generating affective experiences and cognitive concerns of justice, which mediate disengagement and distrust of others. ©2010 The British Psychological Society.

Comparing Public and Private Institutions That Have and Have Not Implemented Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) Systems: A Resource Dependence Perspective

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sendhil, Geetha R.

2012-01-01

The purpose of this national study was to utilize quantitative methods to examine institutional characteristics, financial resource variables, personnel variables, and customer variables of public and private institutions that have and have not implemented enterprise resource planning (ERP) systems, from a resource dependence perspective.…

Digital mapping of soil properties in Canadian managed forests at 250 m of resolution using the k-nearest neighbor method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mansuy, N. R.; Paré, D.; Thiffault, E.

2015-12-01

Large-scale mapping of soil properties is increasingly important for environmental resource management. Whileforested areas play critical environmental roles at local and global scales, forest soil maps are typically at lowresolution.The objective of this study was to generate continuous national maps of selected soil variables (C, N andsoil texture) for the Canadian managed forest landbase at 250 m resolution. We produced these maps using thekNN method with a training dataset of 538 ground-plots fromthe National Forest Inventory (NFI) across Canada,and 18 environmental predictor variables. The best predictor variables were selected (7 topographic and 5 climaticvariables) using the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator method. On average, for all soil variables,topographic predictors explained 37% of the total variance versus 64% for the climatic predictors. Therelative root mean square error (RMSE%) calculated with the leave-one-out cross-validation method gave valuesranging between 22% and 99%, depending on the soil variables tested. RMSE values b 40% can be considered agood imputation in light of the low density of points used in this study. The study demonstrates strong capabilitiesfor mapping forest soil properties at 250m resolution, compared with the current Soil Landscape of CanadaSystem, which is largely oriented towards the agricultural landbase. The methodology used here can potentiallycontribute to the national and international need for spatially explicit soil information in resource managementscience.

Application of a stochastic weather generator to assess climate change impacts in a semi-arid climate: The Upper Indus Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forsythe, N.; Fowler, H. J.; Blenkinsop, S.; Burton, A.; Kilsby, C. G.; Archer, D. R.; Harpham, C.; Hashmi, M. Z.

2014-09-01

Assessing local climate change impacts requires downscaling from Global Climate Model simulations. Here, a stochastic rainfall model (RainSim) combined with a rainfall conditioned weather generator (CRU WG) have been successfully applied in a semi-arid mountain climate, for part of the Upper Indus Basin (UIB), for point stations at a daily time-step to explore climate change impacts. Validation of the simulated time-series against observations (1961-1990) demonstrated the models' skill in reproducing climatological means of core variables with monthly RMSE of <2.0 mm for precipitation and ⩽0.4 °C for mean temperature and daily temperature range. This level of performance is impressive given complexity of climate processes operating in this mountainous context at the boundary between monsoonal and mid-latitude (westerly) weather systems. Of equal importance the model captures well the observed interannual variability as quantified by the first and last decile of 30-year climatic periods. Differences between a control (1961-1990) and future (2071-2100) regional climate model (RCM) time-slice experiment were then used to provide change factors which could be applied within the rainfall and weather models to produce perturbed ‘future' weather time-series. These project year-round increases in precipitation (maximum seasonal mean change:+27%, annual mean change: +18%) with increased intensity in the wettest months (February, March, April) and year-round increases in mean temperature (annual mean +4.8 °C). Climatic constraints on the productivity of natural resource-dependent systems were also assessed using relevant indices from the European Climate Assessment (ECA) and indicate potential future risk to water resources and local agriculture. However, the uniformity of projected temperature increases is in stark contrast to recent seasonally asymmetrical trends in observations, so an alternative scenario of extrapolated trends was also explored. We conclude that interannual variability in climate will continue to have the dominant impact on water resources management whichever trajectory is followed. This demonstrates the need for sophisticated downscaling methods which can evaluate changes in variability and sequencing of events to explore climate change impacts in this region.

Demonstration of Essential Reliability Services by a 300-MW Solar Photovoltaic Power Plant

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Loutan, Clyde; Klauer, Peter; Chowdhury, Sirajul

The California Independent System Operator (CAISO), First Solar, and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) conducted a demonstration project on a large utility-scale photovoltaic (PV) power plant in California to test its ability to provide essential ancillary services to the electric grid. With increasing shares of solar- and wind-generated energy on the electric grid, traditional generation resources equipped with automatic governor control (AGC) and automatic voltage regulation controls -- specifically, fossil thermal -- are being displaced. The deployment of utility-scale, grid-friendly PV power plants that incorporate advanced capabilities to support grid stability and reliability is essential for the large-scale integrationmore » of PV generation into the electric power grid, among other technical requirements. A typical PV power plant consists of multiple power electronic inverters and can contribute to grid stability and reliability through sophisticated 'grid-friendly' controls. In this way, PV power plants can be used to mitigate the impact of variability on the grid, a role typically reserved for conventional generators. In August 2016, testing was completed on First Solar's 300-MW PV power plant, and a large amount of test data was produced and analyzed that demonstrates the ability of PV power plants to use grid-friendly controls to provide essential reliability services. These data showed how the development of advanced power controls can enable PV to become a provider of a wide range of grid services, including spinning reserves, load following, voltage support, ramping, frequency response, variability smoothing, and frequency regulation to power quality. Specifically, the tests conducted included various forms of active power control such as AGC and frequency regulation; droop response; and reactive power, voltage, and power factor controls. This project demonstrated that advanced power electronics and solar generation can be controlled to contribute to system-wide reliability. It was shown that the First Solar plant can provide essential reliability services related to different forms of active and reactive power controls, including plant participation in AGC, primary frequency control, ramp rate control, and voltage regulation. For AGC participation in particular, by comparing the PV plant testing results to the typical performance of individual conventional technologies, we showed that regulation accuracy by the PV plant is 24-30 points better than fast gas turbine technologies. The plant's ability to provide volt-ampere reactive control during periods of extremely low power generation was demonstrated as well. The project team developed a pioneering demonstration concept and test plan to show how various types of active and reactive power controls can leverage PV generation's value from being a simple variable energy resource to a resource that provides a wide range of ancillary services. With this project's approach to a holistic demonstration on an actual, large, utility-scale, operational PV power plant and dissemination of the obtained results, the team sought to close some gaps in perspectives that exist among various stakeholders in California and nationwide by providing real test data.« less

[Impact of cardiovascular risk factors on the consumption of resources in Primary Care according to Clinical Risk Groups].

PubMed

Millá Perseguer, Magdalena; Guadalajara Olmeda, Natividad; Vivas Consuelo, David

2018-06-13

To analyze the prevalence of Cardiovascular Risk Factors (CVRF) in the context of a Basic Health Area and the impact they generate on morbidity and consumption of healthcare resources in the stratified population according to the Clinical System Risk Groups (CRG) in Primary Care, with the purpose of identifying the population with multimorbidity to apply preventive measures, as well as the one that generates the highest care burden and social needs. Observational, cross-sectional and population-based study for a basic health area during 2013. Department of Health 2 (Castellón), Comunidad Valenciana (CV). Includes outpatient care in Primary Care and specialized. All citizens registered in the Population Information System, N=32,667. From the computerized system Abucasis we obtained the demographic, clinical and consumption variables of health resources. We consider the prevalence of CVRF based on the presence or absence of the ICD.9.MC diagnostic codes. The relationship of the CVRF with the 9 CRG health states was analyzed and a predictive analysis was performed with the logistic regression model to evaluate the explanatory capacity of each variable. In addition, an explanatory model of ambulatory pharmaceutical expenditure was obtained through multivariate regression. The population of health status CRG4 and above had multimorbidity. The CRG7 and 6 health states have a higher prevalence of CVRF; it was predictive that the higher the morbidity, the greater the consumption of resources through OR above the mean, p<0.05 and the 95% confidence intervals. It was observed that 59.8% of ambulatory pharmaceutical expenditure was explained by the CRG system and all the CVRF (p<0.05 and R 2 corrected=0.598). Regarding the effect of the CVRF on the CRG health states, there was a significant association (p<0.05) for the alteration of blood glucose, dyslipidemia and HBP in all the CRG states. The study of CVRF in a stratified population using the CRG system identifies and predicts where the greatest impact on morbidity and consumption of healthcare resources is generated. It allows us to know the groups of patients where to develop prevention and chronicity strategies. At the level of clinical practice, a new concept of multimorbidity is provided, defined from the state of health CRG 4 and above. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U.

HydroClimATe: hydrologic and climatic analysis toolkit

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dickinson, Jesse; Hanson, Randall T.; Predmore, Steven K.

2014-01-01

The potential consequences of climate variability and climate change have been identified as major issues for the sustainability and availability of the worldwide water resources. Unlike global climate change, climate variability represents deviations from the long-term state of the climate over periods of a few years to several decades. Currently, rich hydrologic time-series data are available, but the combination of data preparation and statistical methods developed by the U.S. Geological Survey as part of the Groundwater Resources Program is relatively unavailable to hydrologists and engineers who could benefit from estimates of climate variability and its effects on periodic recharge and water-resource availability. This report documents HydroClimATe, a computer program for assessing the relations between variable climatic and hydrologic time-series data. HydroClimATe was developed for a Windows operating system. The software includes statistical tools for (1) time-series preprocessing, (2) spectral analysis, (3) spatial and temporal analysis, (4) correlation analysis, and (5) projections. The time-series preprocessing tools include spline fitting, standardization using a normal or gamma distribution, and transformation by a cumulative departure. The spectral analysis tools include discrete Fourier transform, maximum entropy method, and singular spectrum analysis. The spatial and temporal analysis tool is empirical orthogonal function analysis. The correlation analysis tools are linear regression and lag correlation. The projection tools include autoregressive time-series modeling and generation of many realizations. These tools are demonstrated in four examples that use stream-flow discharge data, groundwater-level records, gridded time series of precipitation data, and the Multivariate ENSO Index.

Storm surge and tidal range energy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewis, Matthew; Angeloudis, Athanasios; Robins, Peter; Evans, Paul; Neill, Simon

2017-04-01

The need to reduce carbon-based energy sources whilst increasing renewable energy forms has led to concerns of intermittency within a national electricity supply strategy. The regular rise and fall of the tide makes prediction almost entirely deterministic compared to other stochastic renewable energy forms; therefore, tidal range energy is often stated as a predictable and firm renewable energy source. Storm surge is the term used for the non-astronomical forcing of tidal elevation, and is synonymous with coastal flooding because positive storm surges can elevate water-levels above the height of coastal flood defences. We hypothesis storm surges will affect the reliability of the tidal range energy resource; with negative surge events reducing the tidal range, and conversely, positive surge events increasing the available resource. Moreover, tide-surge interaction, which results in positive storm surges more likely to occur on a flooding tide, will reduce the annual tidal range energy resource estimate. Water-level data (2000-2012) at nine UK tide gauges, where the mean tidal amplitude is above 2.5m and thus suitable for tidal-range energy development (e.g. Bristol Channel), were used to predict tidal range power with a 0D modelling approach. Storm surge affected the annual resource estimate by between -5% to +3%, due to inter-annual variability. Instantaneous power output were significantly affected (Normalised Root Mean Squared Error: 3%-8%, Scatter Index: 15%-41%) with spatial variability and variability due to operational strategy. We therefore find a storm surge affects the theoretical reliability of tidal range power, such that a prediction system may be required for any future electricity generation scenario that includes large amounts of tidal-range energy; however, annual resource estimation from astronomical tides alone appears sufficient for resource estimation. Future work should investigate water-level uncertainties on the reliability and predictability of tidal range energy with 2D hydrodynamic models.

Synthesizing perspectives on the evolution of cooperation within and between species.

PubMed

Barker, Jessica L; Bronstein, Judith L; Friesen, Maren L; Jones, Emily I; Reeve, H Kern; Zink, Andrew G; Frederickson, Megan E

2017-04-01

Cooperation is widespread both within and between species, but are intraspecific and interspecific cooperation fundamentally similar or qualitatively different phenomena? This review evaluates this question, necessary for a general understanding of the evolution of cooperation. First, we outline three advantages of cooperation relative to noncooperation (acquisition of otherwise inaccessible goods and services, more efficient acquisition of resources, and buffering against variability), and predict when individuals should cooperate with a conspecific versus a heterospecific partner to obtain these advantages. Second, we highlight five axes along which heterospecific and conspecific partners may differ: relatedness and fitness feedbacks, competition and resource use, resource-generation abilities, relative evolutionary rates, and asymmetric strategy sets and outside options. Along all of these axes, certain asymmetries between partners are more common in, but not exclusive to, cooperation between species, especially complementary resource use and production. We conclude that cooperation within and between species share many fundamental qualities, and that differences between the two systems are explained by the various asymmetries between partners. Consideration of the parallels between intra- and interspecific cooperation facilitates application of well-studied topics in one system to the other, such as direct benefits within species and kin-selected cooperation between species, generating promising directions for future research. © 2017 The Author(s). Evolution © 2017 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Mid-Atlantic Offshore Wind Interconnection and Transmission (MAOWIT)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kempton, Willett

This project has carried out a detailed analysis to evaluate the pros and cons of offshore transmission, a possible method to decrease balance-of-system costs and permitting time identified in the DOE Office Wind Strategic Plan (DOE, 2011). It also addresses questions regarding the adequacy of existing transmission infrastructure and the ability of existing generating resources to provide the necessary Ancillary Services (A/S) support (spinning and contingency reserves) in the ISO territory. This project has completed the tasks identified in the proposal: 1. Evaluation of the offshore wind resource off PJM, then examination of offshore wind penetrations consistent with U.S. Departmentmore » of Energy’s (DOE) targets and with their assumed resource size (DOE, 2011). 2. Comparison of piecemeal radial connections to the Independent System Operator (ISO) with connections via a high-voltage direct current (HVDC) offshore network similar to a team partner. 3. High-resolution examination of power fluctuations at each node due to wind energy variability 4. Analysis of wind power production profiles over the Eastern offshore region of the regional ISO to assess the effectiveness of long-distance, North- South transmission for leveling offshore wind energy output 5. Analysis of how the third and fourth items affect the need for ISO grid upgrades, congestion management, and demand for Ancillary Services (A/S) 6. Analysis of actual historic 36-hr and 24-hr forecasts to solve the unit commitment problem and determine the optimal mix of generators given the need to respond to both wind variability and wind forecasting uncertainties.« less

The smoothing effect for renewable resources in an Afro-Eurasian power grid

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krutova, Maria; Kies, Alexander; Schyska, Bruno U.; von Bremen, Lueder

2017-07-01

Renewable power systems have to cope with highly variable generation. Increasing the spatial extent of an interconnected power transmission grid smooths the feed-in by exchange of excess energy over long distances and therefore supports renewable power integration. In this work, we investigate and quantify the balancing potential of a supergrid covering Europe, Africa and Asia. We use ten years of historical weather data to model the interplay of renewable generation and consumption and show that a pan-continental Afro-Eurasian supergrid can smooth renewable generation to a large extent and reduce the need for backup energy by around 50 %. In addition, we show that results for different weather years vary by up to approximately 50 %.

ROTSE All-Sky Surveys for Variable Stars. I. Test Fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akerlof, C.; Amrose, S.; Balsano, R.; Bloch, J.; Casperson, D.; Fletcher, S.; Gisler, G.; Hills, J.; Kehoe, R.; Lee, B.; Marshall, S.; McKay, T.; Pawl, A.; Schaefer, J.; Szymanski, J.; Wren, J.

2000-04-01

The Robotic Optical Transient Search Experiment I (ROTSE-I) experiment has generated CCD photometry for the entire northern sky in two epochs nightly since 1998 March. These sky patrol data are a powerful resource for studies of astrophysical transients. As a demonstration project, we present first results of a search for periodic variable stars derived from ROTSE-I observations. Variable identification, period determination, and type classification are conducted via automatic algorithms. In a set of nine ROTSE-I sky patrol fields covering roughly 2000 deg2, we identify 1781 periodic variable stars with mean magnitudes between mv=10.0 and mv=15.5. About 90% of these objects are newly identified as variable. Examples of many familiar types are presented. All classifications for this study have been manually confirmed. The selection criteria for this analysis have been conservatively defined and are known to be biased against some variable classes. This preliminary study includes only 5.6% of the total ROTSE-I sky coverage, suggesting that the full ROTSE-I variable catalog will include more than 32,000 periodic variable stars.

The influence of climate change on Tanzania's hydropower sustainability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sperna Weiland, Frederiek; Boehlert, Brent; Meijer, Karen; Schellekens, Jaap; Magnell, Jan-Petter; Helbrink, Jakob; Kassana, Leonard; Liden, Rikard

2015-04-01

Economic costs induced by current climate variability are large for Tanzania and may further increase due to future climate change. The Tanzanian National Climate Change Strategy addressed the need for stabilization of hydropower generation and strengthening of water resources management. Increased hydropower generation can contribute to sustainable use of energy resources and stabilization of the national electricity grid. To support Tanzania the World Bank financed this study in which the impact of climate change on the water resources and related hydropower generation capacity of Tanzania is assessed. To this end an ensemble of 78 GCM projections from both the CMIP3 and CMIP5 datasets was bias-corrected and down-scaled to 0.5 degrees resolution following the BCSD technique using the Princeton Global Meteorological Forcing Dataset as a reference. To quantify the hydrological impacts of climate change by 2035 the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB was set-up for Tanzania at a resolution of 3 minutes and run with all 78 GCM datasets. From the full set of projections a probable (median) and worst case scenario (95th percentile) were selected based upon (1) the country average Climate Moisture Index and (2) discharge statistics of relevance to hydropower generation. Although precipitation from the Princeton dataset shows deviations from local station measurements and the global hydrological model does not perfectly reproduce local scale hydrographs, the main discharge characteristics and precipitation patterns are represented well. The modeled natural river flows were adjusted for water demand and irrigation within the water resources model RIBASIM (both historical values and future scenarios). Potential hydropower capacity was assessed with the power market simulation model PoMo-C that considers both reservoir inflows obtained from RIBASIM and overall electricity generation costs. Results of the study show that climate change is unlikely to negatively affect the average potential of future hydropower production; it will likely make hydropower more profitable. Yet, the uncertainty in climate change projections remains large and risks are significant, adaptation strategies should ideally consider a worst case scenario to ensure robust power generation. Overall a diversified power generation portfolio, anchored in hydropower and supported by other renewables and fossil fuel-based energy sources, is the best solution for Tanzania

Renewable Electricity Futures: Exploration of a U.S. Grid with 80% Renewable Electricity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mai, Trieu

2013-04-01

Renewable Electricity Futures is an initial investigation of the extent to which renewable energy supply can meet the electricity demands of the contiguous United States over the next several decades. This study explores the implications and challenges of very high renewable electricity generation levels: from 30% up to 90% (focusing on 80%) of all U.S. electricity generation from renewable technologies in 2050. At such high levels of renewable electricity penetration, the unique characteristics of some renewable resources, specifically geographical distribution and variability and un-certainty in output, pose challenges to the operability of the nation's electric system. The study focuses on key technical implications of this environment from a national perspective, exploring whether the U.S. power system can supply electricity to meet customer demand on an hourly basis with high levels of renewable electricity, including variable wind and solar generation. The study also identifies some of the potential economic, environmental, and social implications of deploying and integrating high levels of renewable electricity in the U.S. The full report and associated supporting information is available at: http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/refutures/.

Five Indisputable Facts on Modern Power Systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bloom, Aaron P; Brinkman, Gregory L; Lopez, Anthony J

This presentation overviews five indisputable facts about modern power systems: Fact one: The grid can handle more renewable generation than previously thought. Fact two: Geographic and resource diversity provide additional reliability to the system. Fact three: Wind and solar forecasting provide significant value. Fact four: Our electric power markets were not originally designed for variable renewables -- but they could be adapted. Fact five: Modern power electronics are creating new sources of essential reliability services.

Assessment of unconventional oil and gas resources in the Jurassic Sargelu Formation of Iraq, 2014

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schenk, Christopher J.; Pitman, Janet K.; Charpentier, Ronald R.; Klett, Timothy R.; Gaswirth, Stephanie B.; Brownfield, Michael E.; Leathers, Heidi M.; Mercier, Tracey J.; Tennyson, Marilyn E.

2015-01-01

The USGS assessment methodology consists of a well-performance approach that recognizes the geologic variability within assessed reservoirs. For non-U.S. assessments, the USGS assesses shale-gas or shale-oil reservoirs that (1) contain greater than 2 weight percent total organic carbon (TOC), (2) are within the proper thermal maturity window for oil or gas generation, (3) have greater than 15-m thickness of organic-rich shale, and (4) contain Type I or II organic matter. These specific USGS criteria when applied to any given shale-oil or shale-gas reservoir might significantly reduce the potential resource assessment area compared to maps made with greater than 1 weight percent TOC.

Interannual-to-multidecadal hydroclimate variability and its sectoral impacts in northeastern Argentina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lovino, Miguel A.; Müller, Omar V.; Müller, Gabriela V.; Sgroi, Leandro C.; Baethgen, Walter E.

2018-06-01

This study examines the joint variability of precipitation, river streamflow and temperature over northeastern Argentina; advances the understanding of their links with global SST forcing; and discusses their impacts on water resources, agriculture and human settlements. The leading patterns of variability, and their nonlinear trends and cycles are identified by means of a principal component analysis (PCA) complemented with a singular spectrum analysis (SSA). Interannual hydroclimatic variability centers on two broad frequency bands: one of 2.5-6.5 years corresponding to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) periodicities and the second of about 9 years. The higher frequencies of the precipitation variability (2.5-4 years) favored extreme events after 2000, even during moderate extreme phases of the ENSO. Minimum temperature is correlated with ENSO with a main frequency close to 3 years. Maximum temperature time series correlate well with SST variability over the South Atlantic, Indian and Pacific oceans with a 9-year frequency. Interdecadal variability is characterized by low-frequency trends and multidecadal oscillations that have induced a transition from dryer and cooler climate to wetter and warmer decades starting in the mid-twentieth century. The Paraná River streamflow is influenced by North and South Atlantic SSTs with bidecadal periodicities. The hydroclimate variability at all timescales had significant sectoral impacts. Frequent wet events between 1970 and 2005 favored floods that affected agricultural and livestock productivity and forced population displacements. On the other hand, agricultural droughts resulted in soil moisture deficits that affected crops at critical growth stages. Hydrological droughts affected surface water resources, causing water and food scarcity and stressing the capacity for hydropower generation. Lastly, increases in minimum temperature reduced wheat and barley yields.

NREL Integrate: RCS-4-42326

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hudgins, Andrew P.; Waight, Jim; Grover, Shailendra

OMNETRIC Corp., Duke Energy, CPS Energy, and the University of Texas at San Antonio (UTSA) created a project team to execute the project 'OpenFMB Reference Architecture Demonstration.' The project included development and demonstration of concepts that will enable the electric utility grid to host larger penetrations of renewable resources. The project concept calls for the aggregation of renewable resources and loads into microgrids and the control of these microgrids with an implementation of the OpenFMB Reference Architecture. The production of power from the renewable resources that are appearing on the grid today is very closely linked to the weather. Themore » difficulty of forecasting the weather, which is well understood, leads to difficulty in forecasting the production of renewable resources. The current state of the art in forecasting the power production from renewables (solar PV and wind) are accuracies in the range of 12-25 percent NMAE. In contrast the demand for electricity aggregated to the system level, is easier to predict. The state of the art of demand forecasting done, 24 hours ahead, is about 2-3% MAPE. Forecasting the load to be supplied from conventional resources (demand minus generation from renewable resources) is thus very hard to forecast. This means that even a few hours before the time of consumption, there can be considerable uncertainty over what must be done to balance supply and demand. Adding to the problem of difficulty of forecasting, is the reality of the variability of the actual production of power from renewables. Due to the variability of wind speeds and solar insolation, the actual output of power from renewable resources can vary significantly over a short period of time. Gusts of winds result is variation of power output of wind turbines. The shadows of clouds moving over solar PV arrays result in the variation of power production of the array. This compounds the problem of balancing supply and demand in real time. Establishing a control system that can manage distribution systems with large penetrations of renewable resources is difficult due to two major issues: (1) the lack of standardization and interoperability between the vast array of equipment in operation and on the market, most of which use different and proprietary means of communication and (2) the magnitude of the network and the information it generates and consumes. The objective of this project is to provide the industry with a design concept and tools that will enable the electric power grid to overcome these barriers and support a larger penetration of clean energy from renewable resources.« less

Role of Smarter Grids in Variable Renewable Resource Integration (Presentation)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Miller, M.

2012-07-01

This presentation discusses the role of smarter grids in variable renewable resource integration and references material from a forthcoming ISGAN issue paper: Smart Grid Contributions to Variable Renewable Resource Integration, co-written by the presenter and currently in review.

Risky business: The impact of climate and climate variability on human population dynamics in Western Europe during the Last Glacial Maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burke, Ariane; Kageyama, Masa; Latombe, Guilllaume; Fasel, Marc; Vrac, Mathieu; Ramstein, Gilles; James, Patrick M. A.

2017-05-01

The extent to which climate change has affected the course of human evolution is an enduring question. The ability to maintain spatially extensive social networks and a fluid social structure allows human foragers to ;map onto; the landscape, mitigating the impact of ecological risk and conferring resilience. But what are the limits of resilience and to which environmental variables are foraging populations sensitive? We address this question by testing the impact of a suite of environmental variables, including climate variability, on the distribution of human populations in Western Europe during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Climate variability affects the distribution of plant and animal resources unpredictably, creating an element of risk for foragers for whom mobility comes at a cost. We produce a model of habitat suitability that allows us to generate predictions about the probable distribution of human populations and discuss the implications of these predictions for the structure of human populations and their social and cultural evolution during the LGM.

Best Practices Handbook for the Collection and Use of Solar Resource Data for Solar Energy Applications: Second Edition

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sengupta, Manajit; Habte, Aron; Gueymard, Christian

As the world looks for low-carbon sources of energy, solar power stands out as the single most abundant energy resource on Earth. Harnessing this energy is the challenge for this century. Photovoltaics, solar heating and cooling, and concentrating solar power (CSP) are primary forms of energy applications using sunlight. These solar energy systems use different technologies, collect different fractions of the solar resource, and have different siting requirements and production capabilities. Reliable information about the solar resource is required for every solar energy application. This holds true for small installations on a rooftop as well as for large solar powermore » plants; however, solar resource information is of particular interest for large installations, because they require substantial investment, sometimes exceeding 1 billion dollars in construction costs. Before such a project is undertaken, the best possible information about the quality and reliability of the fuel source must be made available. That is, project developers need reliable data about the solar resource available at specific locations, including historic trends with seasonal, daily, hourly, and (preferably) subhourly variability to predict the daily and annual performance of a proposed power plant. Without this data, an accurate financial analysis is not possible. Additionally, with the deployment of large amounts of distributed photovoltaics, there is an urgent need to integrate this source of generation to ensure the reliability and stability of the grid. Forecasting generation from the various sources will allow for larger penetrations of these generation sources because utilities and system operators can then ensure stable grid operations. Developed by the foremost experts in the field who have come together under the umbrella of the International Energy Agency's Solar Heating and Cooling Task 46, this handbook summarizes state-of-the-art information about all the above topics.« less

Low Probability Tail Event Analysis and Mitigation in BPA Control Area: Task One Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lu, Shuai; Makarov, Yuri V.

This is a report for task one of the tail event analysis project for BPA. Tail event refers to the situation in a power system when unfavorable forecast errors of load and wind are superposed onto fast load and wind ramps, or non-wind generators falling short of scheduled output, the imbalance between generation and load becomes very significant. This type of events occurs infrequently and appears on the tails of the distribution of system power imbalance; therefore, is referred to as tail events. This report analyzes what happened during the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) reliability event on Februarymore » 26, 2008, which was widely reported because of the involvement of wind generation. The objective is to identify sources of the problem, solutions to it and potential improvements that can be made to the system. Lessons learned from the analysis include the following: (1) Large mismatch between generation and load can be caused by load forecast error, wind forecast error and generation scheduling control error on traditional generators, or a combination of all of the above; (2) The capability of system balancing resources should be evaluated both in capacity (MW) and in ramp rate (MW/min), and be procured accordingly to meet both requirements. The resources need to be able to cover a range corresponding to the variability of load and wind in the system, additional to other uncertainties; (3) Unexpected ramps caused by load and wind can both become the cause leading to serious issues; (4) A look-ahead tool evaluating system balancing requirement during real-time operations and comparing that with available system resources should be very helpful to system operators in predicting the forthcoming of similar events and planning ahead; and (5) Demand response (only load reduction in ERCOT event) can effectively reduce load-generation mismatch and terminate frequency deviation in an emergency situation.« less

The Collaborative Seismic Earth Model: Generation 1

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fichtner, Andreas; van Herwaarden, Dirk-Philip; Afanasiev, Michael; SimutÄ--, SaulÄ--; Krischer, Lion; ćubuk-Sabuncu, Yeşim; Taymaz, Tuncay; Colli, Lorenzo; Saygin, Erdinc; Villaseñor, Antonio; Trampert, Jeannot; Cupillard, Paul; Bunge, Hans-Peter; Igel, Heiner

2018-05-01

We present a general concept for evolutionary, collaborative, multiscale inversion of geophysical data, specifically applied to the construction of a first-generation Collaborative Seismic Earth Model. This is intended to address the limited resources of individual researchers and the often limited use of previously accumulated knowledge. Model evolution rests on a Bayesian updating scheme, simplified into a deterministic method that honors today's computational restrictions. The scheme is able to harness distributed human and computing power. It furthermore handles conflicting updates, as well as variable parameterizations of different model refinements or different inversion techniques. The first-generation Collaborative Seismic Earth Model comprises 12 refinements from full seismic waveform inversion, ranging from regional crustal- to continental-scale models. A global full-waveform inversion ensures that regional refinements translate into whole-Earth structure.

Identifying Resilience Resources for HIV Prevention Among Sexual Minority Men: A Systematic Review.

PubMed

Woodward, Eva N; Banks, Regina J; Marks, Amy K; Pantalone, David W

2017-10-01

Most HIV prevention for sexual minority men and men who have sex with men targets risk behaviors (e.g., condom use) and helps <50% of participants. Bolstering resilience might increase HIV prevention's effectiveness. This systematic review identified resilience resources (protective factors) in high-risk, HIV-negative, sexual minority men. We reviewed PsycINFO, PsycARTICLES, MEDLINE, references, and Listservs for studies including sexual minority men with 1+ HIV risk factor (syndemics): childhood sexual abuse, partner abuse, substance abuse, or mental health symptoms. From 1356 articles screened, 20 articles met inclusion criteria. Across the articles, we identified and codified 31 resilience resources: socioeconomic (e.g., employment), behavioral coping strategies (e.g., mental health treatment), cognitions/emotions (e.g., acceptance), and relationships. Resilience resources were generally associated with lower HIV risk; there were 18 low-risk associations, 4 high-risk associations, 8 non-significant associations). We generated a set of empirically based resilience variables and a hypothesis to be evaluated further to improve HIV prevention.

On the Use of the Beta Distribution in Probabilistic Resource Assessments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Olea, Ricardo A., E-mail: olea@usgs.gov

2011-12-15

The triangular distribution is a popular choice when it comes to modeling bounded continuous random variables. Its wide acceptance derives mostly from its simple analytic properties and the ease with which modelers can specify its three parameters through the extremes and the mode. On the negative side, hardly any real process follows a triangular distribution, which from the outset puts at a disadvantage any model employing triangular distributions. At a time when numerical techniques such as the Monte Carlo method are displacing analytic approaches in stochastic resource assessments, easy specification remains the most attractive characteristic of the triangular distribution. Themore » beta distribution is another continuous distribution defined within a finite interval offering wider flexibility in style of variation, thus allowing consideration of models in which the random variables closely follow the observed or expected styles of variation. Despite its more complex definition, generation of values following a beta distribution is as straightforward as generating values following a triangular distribution, leaving the selection of parameters as the main impediment to practically considering beta distributions. This contribution intends to promote the acceptance of the beta distribution by explaining its properties and offering several suggestions to facilitate the specification of its two shape parameters. In general, given the same distributional parameters, use of the beta distributions in stochastic modeling may yield significantly different results, yet better estimates, than the triangular distribution.« less

Electric Vehicle Charging and the California Power Sector: Evaluating the Effect of Location and Time on Greenhouse Gas Emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sohnen, Julia Meagher

This thesis explores the implications of the increased adoption of plug-in electric vehicles in California through its effect on the operation of the state's electric grid. The well-to-wheels emissions associated with driving an electric vehicle depend on the resource mix of the electricity grid used to charge the battery. We present a new least-cost dispatch model, EDGE-NET, for the California electricity grid consisting of interconnected sub-regions that encompass the six largest state utilities that can be used to evaluate the impact of growing electric vehicle demand on existing power grid infrastructure system and energy resources. This model considers spatiality and temporal dynamics of energy demand and supply when determining the regional impacts of additional charging profiles on the current electricity network. Model simulation runs for one year show generation and transmission congestion to be reasonable similar to historical data. Model simulation results show that average emissions and system costs associated with electricity generation vary significantly by time of day, season, and location. Marginal cost and emissions also exhibit seasonal and diurnal differences, but show less spatial variation. Sensitivity of demand analysis shows that the relative changes to average emissions and system costs respond asymmetrically to increases and decreases in electricity demand. These results depend on grid mix at the time and the marginal power plant type. In minimizing total system cost, the model will choose to dispatch the lowest-cost resource to meet additional vehicle demand, regardless of location, as long as transmission capacity is available. Location of electric vehicle charging has a small effect on the marginal greenhouse gas emissions associated with additional generation, due to electricity losses in the transmission grid. We use a geographically explicit, charging assessment model for California to develop and compare the effects of two charging profiles. Comparison of these two basic scenarios points to savings in greenhouse gas emissions savings and operational costs from delayed charging of electric vehicles. Vehicle charging simulations confirm that plug-in electric vehicles alone are unlikely to require additional generation or transmission infrastructure. EDGE-NET was successfully benchmarked against historical data for the present grid but additional work is required to expand the model for future scenario evaluation. We discuss how the model might be adapted for high penetrations of variable renewable energy resources, and the use of grid storage. Renewable resources such as wind and solar vary in California vary significantly by time-of-day, season, and location. However, combination of multiple resources from different geographic regions through transmission grid interconnection is expected to help mitigate the impacts of variability. EDGE-NET can evaluate interaction of supply and demand through the existing transmission infrastructure and can identify any critical network bottlenecks or areas for expansion. For this reason, EDGE-NET will be an important tool to evaluate energy policy scenarios.

Stochastic simulation of power systems with integrated renewable and utility-scale storage resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Degeilh, Yannick

The push for a more sustainable electric supply has led various countries to adopt policies advocating the integration of renewable yet variable energy resources, such as wind and solar, into the grid. The challenges of integrating such time-varying, intermittent resources has in turn sparked a growing interest in the implementation of utility-scale energy storage resources ( ESRs), with MWweek storage capability. Indeed, storage devices provide flexibility to facilitate the management of power system operations in the presence of uncertain, highly time-varying and intermittent renewable resources. The ability to exploit the potential synergies between renewable and ESRs hinges on developing appropriate models, methodologies, tools and policy initiatives. We report on the development of a comprehensive simulation methodology that provides the capability to quantify the impacts of integrated renewable and ESRs on the economics, reliability and emission variable effects of power systems operating in a market environment. We model the uncertainty in the demands, the available capacity of conventional generation resources and the time-varying, intermittent renewable resources, with their temporal and spatial correlations, as discrete-time random processes. We deploy models of the ESRs to emulate their scheduling and operations in the transmission-constrained hourly day-ahead markets. To this end, we formulate a scheduling optimization problem (SOP) whose solutions determine the operational schedule of the controllable ESRs in coordination with the demands and the conventional/renewable resources. As such, the SOP serves the dual purpose of emulating the clearing of the transmission-constrained day-ahead markets (DAMs ) and scheduling the energy storage resource operations. We also represent the need for system operators to impose stricter ramping requirements on the conventional generating units so as to maintain the system capability to perform "load following'', i.e., respond to quick variations in the loads and renewable resource outputs in a manner that maintains the power balance, by incorporating appropriate ramping requirement constraints in the formulation of the SOP. The simulation approach makes use of Monte Carlo simulation techniques to represent the impacts of the sources of uncertainty on the side-by-side power system and market operations. As such, we systematically sample the "input'' random processes -- namely the buyer demands, renewable resource outputs and conventional generation resource available capacities -- to generate the realizations, or sample paths, that we use in the emulation of the transmission-constrained day-ahead markets via SOP . As a result, we obtain realizations of the market outcomes and storage resource operations that we can use to approximate their statistics. The approach not only has the capability to emulate the side-by-side power system and energy market operations with the explicit representation of the chronology of time-dependent phenomena -- including storage cycles of charge/discharge -- and constraints imposed by the transmission network in terms of deliverability of the energy, but also to provide the figures of merit for all metrics to assess the economics, reliability and the environmental impacts of the performance of those operations. Our efforts to address the implementational aspects of the methodology so as to ensure computational tractability for large-scale systems over longer periods include relaxing the SOP, the use of a "warm-start'' technique as well as representative simulation periods, parallelization and variance reduction techniques. Our simulation approach is useful in power system planning, operations and investment analysis. There is a broad range of applications of the simulation methodology to resource planning studies, production costing issues, investment analysis, transmission utilization, reliability analysis, environmental assessments, policy formulation and to answer quantitatively various what-if questions. We demonstrate the capabilities of the simulation approach by carrying out various studies on modified IEEE 118- and WECC 240-bus systems. The results of our representative case studies effectively illustrate the synergies among wind and ESRs. Our investigations clearly indicate that energy storage and wind resources tend to complement each other in the reduction of wholesale purchase payments in the DAMs and the improvement of system reliability. In addition, we observe that CO2 emission impacts with energy storage depend on the resource mix characteristics. An important finding is that storage seems to attenuate the "diminishing returns'' associated with increased penetration of wind generation. Our studies also evidence the limited ability of integrated ESRs to enhance the wind resource capability to replace conventional resources from purely a system reliability perspective. Some useful insights into the siting of ESRs are obtained and they indicate the potentially significant impacts of such decisions on the network congestion patterns and, consequently, on the LMPs. Simulation results further indicate that the explicit representation of ramping requirements on the conventional units at the DAM level causes the expected total wholesale purchase payments to increase, thereby mitigating the benefits of wind integration. The stricter ramping requirements are also shown to impact the revenues of generators that do not even provide any ramp capability services.

The Potential for Predicting Precipitation on Seasonal-to-Interannual Timescales

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koster, R. D.

1999-01-01

The ability to predict precipitation several months in advance would have a significant impact on water resource management. This talk provides an overview of a project aimed at developing this prediction capability. NASA's Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) will generate seasonal-to-interannual sea surface temperature predictions through detailed ocean circulation modeling and will then translate these SST forecasts into forecasts of continental precipitation through the application of an atmospheric general circulation model and a "SVAT"-type land surface model. As part of the process, ocean variables (e.g., height) and land variables (e.g., soil moisture) will be updated regularly via data assimilation. The overview will include a discussion of the variability inherent in such a modeling system and will provide some quantitative estimates of the absolute upper limits of seasonal-to-interannual precipitation predictability.

Wind and Solar on the Power Grid: Myths and Misperceptions, Greening the Grid (Spanish Version)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Authors: Denholm, Paul; Cochran, Jaquelin; Brancucci Martinez-Anido, Carlo

This is the Spanish version of the 'Greening the Grid - Wind and Solar on the Power Grid: Myths and Misperceptions'. Wind and solar are inherently more variable and uncertain than the traditional dispatchable thermal and hydro generators that have historically provided a majority of grid-supplied electricity. The unique characteristics of variable renewable energy (VRE) resources have resulted in many misperceptions regarding their contribution to a low-cost and reliable power grid. Common areas of concern include: 1) The potential need for increased operating reserves, 2) The impact of variability and uncertainty on operating costs and pollutant emissions of thermal plants,more » and 3) The technical limits of VRE penetration rates to maintain grid stability and reliability. This fact sheet corrects misperceptions in these areas.« less

Analysis Methodology for Balancing Authority Cooperation in High Penetration of Variable Generation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Zhou, Ning

2010-02-01

With the rapidly growing penetration level of wind and solar generation, the challenges of managing variability and the uncertainty of intermittent renewable generation become more and more significant. The problem of power variability and uncertainty gets exacerbated when each balancing authority (BA) works locally and separately to balance its own subsystem. The virtual BA concept means various forms of collaboration between individual BAs must manage power variability and uncertainty. The virtual BA will have a wide area control capability in managing its operational balancing requirements in different time frames. This coordination results in the improvement of efficiency and reliability ofmore » power system operation while facilitating the high level integration of green, intermittent energy resources. Several strategies for virtual BA implementation, such as ACE diversity interchange (ADI), wind only BA, BA consolidation, dynamic scheduling, regulation and load following sharing, extreme event impact study are discussed in this report. The objective of such strategies is to allow individual BAs within a large power grid to help each other deal with power variability. Innovative methods have been developed to simulate the balancing operation of BAs. These methods evaluate the BA operation through a number of metrics — such as capacity, ramp rate, ramp duration, energy and cycling requirements — to evaluate the performances of different virtual BA strategies. The report builds a systematic framework for evaluating BA consolidation and coordination. Results for case studies show that significant economic and reliability benefits can be gained. The merits and limitation of each virtual BA strategy are investigated. The report provides guidelines for the power industry to evaluate the coordination or consolidation method. The application of the developed strategies in cooperation with several regional BAs is in progress for several off-spring projects.« less

Photovoltaic frequency–watt curve design for frequency regulation and fast contingency reserves

DOE PAGES

Johnson, Jay; Neely, Jason C.; Delhotal, Jarod J.; ...

2016-09-02

When renewable energy resources are installed in electricity grids, they typically increase generation variability and displace thermal generator control action and inertia. Grid operators combat these emerging challenges with advanced distributed energy resource (DER) functions to support frequency and provide voltage regulation and protection mechanisms. This paper focuses on providing frequency reserves using autonomous IEC TR 61850-90-7 pointwise frequency-watt (FW) functions that adjust DER active power as a function of measured grid frequency. The importance of incorporating FW functions into a fleet of photovoltaic (PV) systems is demonstrated in simulation. Effects of FW curve design, including curtailment, deadband, and droop,more » were analyzed against performance metrics using Latin hypercube sampling for 20%, 70%, and 120% PV penetration scenarios on the Hawaiian island of Lanai. Finally, to understand the financial implications of FW functions to utilities, a performance function was defined based on monetary costs attributable to curtailed PV production, load shedding, and generator wear. An optimization wrapper was then created to find the best FW function curve for each penetration level. Lastly, it was found that in all cases, the utility would save money by implementing appropriate FW functions.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Krishnan, Venkat; Cole, Wesley

Power sector capacity expansion models (CEMs) have a broad range of spatial resolutions. This paper uses the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model, a long-term national scale electric sector CEM, to evaluate the value of high spatial resolution for CEMs. ReEDS models the United States with 134 load balancing areas (BAs) and captures the variability in existing generation parameters, future technology costs, performance, and resource availability using very high spatial resolution data, especially for wind and solar modeled at 356 resource regions. In this paper we perform planning studies at three different spatial resolutions--native resolution (134 BAs), state-level, and NERCmore » region level--and evaluate how results change under different levels of spatial aggregation in terms of renewable capacity deployment and location, associated transmission builds, and system costs. The results are used to ascertain the value of high geographically resolved models in terms of their impact on relative competitiveness among renewable energy resources.« less

Creating a medical dictionary using word alignment: the influence of sources and resources.

PubMed

Nyström, Mikael; Merkel, Magnus; Petersson, Håkan; Ahlfeldt, Hans

2007-11-23

Automatic word alignment of parallel texts with the same content in different languages is among other things used to generate dictionaries for new translations. The quality of the generated word alignment depends on the quality of the input resources. In this paper we report on automatic word alignment of the English and Swedish versions of the medical terminology systems ICD-10, ICF, NCSP, KSH97-P and parts of MeSH and how the terminology systems and type of resources influence the quality. We automatically word aligned the terminology systems using static resources, like dictionaries, statistical resources, like statistically derived dictionaries, and training resources, which were generated from manual word alignment. We varied which part of the terminology systems that we used to generate the resources, which parts that we word aligned and which types of resources we used in the alignment process to explore the influence the different terminology systems and resources have on the recall and precision. After the analysis, we used the best configuration of the automatic word alignment for generation of candidate term pairs. We then manually verified the candidate term pairs and included the correct pairs in an English-Swedish dictionary. The results indicate that more resources and resource types give better results but the size of the parts used to generate the resources only partly affects the quality. The most generally useful resources were generated from ICD-10 and resources generated from MeSH were not as general as other resources. Systematic inter-language differences in the structure of the terminology system rubrics make the rubrics harder to align. Manually created training resources give nearly as good results as a union of static resources, statistical resources and training resources and noticeably better results than a union of static resources and statistical resources. The verified English-Swedish dictionary contains 24,000 term pairs in base forms. More resources give better results in the automatic word alignment, but some resources only give small improvements. The most important type of resource is training and the most general resources were generated from ICD-10.

Creating a medical dictionary using word alignment: The influence of sources and resources

PubMed Central

Nyström, Mikael; Merkel, Magnus; Petersson, Håkan; Åhlfeldt, Hans

2007-01-01

Background Automatic word alignment of parallel texts with the same content in different languages is among other things used to generate dictionaries for new translations. The quality of the generated word alignment depends on the quality of the input resources. In this paper we report on automatic word alignment of the English and Swedish versions of the medical terminology systems ICD-10, ICF, NCSP, KSH97-P and parts of MeSH and how the terminology systems and type of resources influence the quality. Methods We automatically word aligned the terminology systems using static resources, like dictionaries, statistical resources, like statistically derived dictionaries, and training resources, which were generated from manual word alignment. We varied which part of the terminology systems that we used to generate the resources, which parts that we word aligned and which types of resources we used in the alignment process to explore the influence the different terminology systems and resources have on the recall and precision. After the analysis, we used the best configuration of the automatic word alignment for generation of candidate term pairs. We then manually verified the candidate term pairs and included the correct pairs in an English-Swedish dictionary. Results The results indicate that more resources and resource types give better results but the size of the parts used to generate the resources only partly affects the quality. The most generally useful resources were generated from ICD-10 and resources generated from MeSH were not as general as other resources. Systematic inter-language differences in the structure of the terminology system rubrics make the rubrics harder to align. Manually created training resources give nearly as good results as a union of static resources, statistical resources and training resources and noticeably better results than a union of static resources and statistical resources. The verified English-Swedish dictionary contains 24,000 term pairs in base forms. Conclusion More resources give better results in the automatic word alignment, but some resources only give small improvements. The most important type of resource is training and the most general resources were generated from ICD-10. PMID:18036221

Synthetic Scenarios from CMIP5 Model Simulations for Climate Change Impact Assessments in Managed Ecosystems and Water Resources: Case Study in South Asian Countries

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anandhi, A.; Omani, N.; Chaubey, I.; Horton, R.; Bader, D.; Nanjundiah, R. S.

2017-01-01

Increasing population, urbanization, and associated demand for food production compounded by climate change and variability have important implications for the managed ecosystems and water resources of a region. This is particularly true for south Asia, which supports one quarter of the global population, half of whom live below the poverty line. This region is largely dependent on monsoon precipitation for water. Given the limited resources of the developing countries in this region, the objective of our study was to empirically explore climate change in south Asia up to the year 2099 using monthly simulations from 35 global climate models (GCMs) participating in the fifth phase of the Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) for two future emission scenarios (representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and provide a wide range of potential climate change outcomes. This was carried out using a three-step procedure: calculating the mean annual, monsoon, and non-monsoon precipitation and temperatures; estimating the percent change from historical conditions; and developing scenario funnels and synthetic scenarios. This methodology was applied for the entire south Asia region; however, the percent change information generated at 1.5deg grid scale can be used to generate scenarios at finer spatial scales. Our results showed a high variability in the future change in precipitation (-23% to 52%, maximum in the non-monsoon season) and temperature (0.8% to 2.1%) in the region. Temperatures in the region consistently increased, especially in the Himalayan region, which could have impacts including a faster retreat of glaciers and increased floods. It could also change rivers from perennial to seasonal, leading to significant challenges in water management. Increasing temperatures could further stress groundwater reservoirs, leading to withdrawal rates that become even more unsustainable. The high precipitation variability (with higher propensity for localized intense rainfall events) observed in the region can be a key factor for managed ecosystems and water management and could also lead to more incidence of severe urban flooding. The results could be used to assess both mitigation and adaptation alternatives to reduce vulnerabilities in managed ecosystems (agricultural and urban) and water resources.

Wind farms production: Control and prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El-Fouly, Tarek Hussein Mostafa

Wind energy resources, unlike dispatchable central station generation, produce power dependable on external irregular source and that is the incident wind speed which does not always blow when electricity is needed. This results in the variability, unpredictability, and uncertainty of wind resources. Therefore, the integration of wind facilities to utility electrical grid presents a major challenge to power system operator. Such integration has significant impact on the optimum power flow, transmission congestion, power quality issues, system stability, load dispatch, and economic analysis. Due to the irregular nature of wind power production, accurate prediction represents the major challenge to power system operators. Therefore, in this thesis two novel models are proposed for wind speed and wind power prediction. One proposed model is dedicated to short-term prediction (one-hour ahead) and the other involves medium term prediction (one-day ahead). The accuracy of the proposed models is revealed by comparing their results with the corresponding values of a reference prediction model referred to as the persistent model. Utility grid operation is not only impacted by the uncertainty of the future production of wind farms, but also by the variability of their current production and how the active and reactive power exchange with the grid is controlled. To address this particular task, a control technique for wind turbines, driven by doubly-fed induction generators (DFIGs), is developed to regulate the terminal voltage by equally sharing the generated/absorbed reactive power between the rotor-side and the gridside converters. To highlight the impact of the new developed technique in reducing the power loss in the generator set, an economic analysis is carried out. Moreover, a new aggregated model for wind farms is proposed that accounts for the irregularity of the incident wind distribution throughout the farm layout. Specifically, this model includes the wake effect and the time delay of the incident wind speed of the different turbines on the farm, and to simulate the fluctuation in the generated power more accurately and more closer to real-time operation. Recently, wind farms with considerable output power ratings have been installed. Their integrating into the utility grid will substantially affect the electricity markets. This thesis investigates the possible impact of wind power variability, wind farm control strategy, wind energy penetration level, wind farm location, and wind power prediction accuracy on the total generation costs and close to real time electricity market prices. These issues are addressed by developing a single auction market model for determining the real-time electricity market prices.

A low-complexity Reed-Solomon decoder using new key equation solver

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Jun; Yuan, Songxin; Tu, Xiaodong; Zhang, Chongfu

2006-09-01

This paper presents a low-complexity parallel Reed-Solomon (RS) (255,239) decoder architecture using a novel pipelined variable stages recursive Modified Euclidean (ME) algorithm for optical communication. The pipelined four-parallel syndrome generator is proposed. The time multiplexing and resource sharing schemes are used in the novel recursive ME algorithm to reduce the logic gate count. The new key equation solver can be shared by two decoder macro. A new Chien search cell which doesn't need initialization is proposed in the paper. The proposed decoder can be used for 2.5Gb/s data rates device. The decoder is implemented in Altera' Stratixll device. The resource utilization is reduced about 40% comparing to the conventional method.

Adaptation of a pattern-scaling approach for assessment of local (village/valley) scale water resources and related vulnerabilities in the Upper Indus Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forsythe, Nathan; Kilsby, Chris G.; Fowler, Hayley J.; Archer, David R.

2010-05-01

The water resources of the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) are of the utmost importance to the economic wellbeing of Pakistan. The irrigated agriculture made possible by Indus river runoff underpins the food security for Pakistan's nearly 200 million people. Contributions from hydropower account for more than one fifth of peak installed electrical generating capacity in a country where widespread, prolonged load-shedding handicaps business activity and industrial development. Pakistan's further socio-economic development thus depends largely on optimisation of its precious water resources. Confident, accurate seasonal predictions of water resource availability coupled with sound understanding of interannual variability are urgent insights needed by development planners and infrastructure managers at all levels. This study focuses on the challenge of providing meaningful quantitative information at the village/valley scale in the upper reaches of the UIB. Proceeding by progressive reductions in scale, the typology of the observed UIB hydrological regimes -- glacial, nival and pluvial -- are examined with special emphasis on interannual variability for individual seasons. Variations in discharge (runoff) are compared to observations of climate parameters (temperature, precipitation) and available spatial data (elevation, snow cover and snow-water-equivalent). The first scale presented is composed of the large-scale, long-record gauged UIB tributary basins. The Pakistan Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) has maintained these stations for several decades in order to monitor seasonal flows and accumulate data for design of further infrastructure. Data from basins defined by five gauging stations on the Indus, Hunza, Gilgit and Astore rivers are examined. The second scale presented is a set of smaller gauged headwater catchments with short records. These gauges were installed by WAPDA and its partners amongst the international development agencies to assess potential sites for medium-scale infrastructure projects. These catchments are placed in their context within the hydrological regime classification using the spatial data and (remote sensing) observations as well as river gauging measurements. The study assesses the degree of similarity with the larger basins of the same hydrological regime. This assessment focuses on the measured response to observed climate variable anomalies. The smallest scale considered is comprised of a number of case studies at the ungauged village/valley scale. These examples are based on the delineation of areas to which specific communities (villages) have customary (riparian) water rights. These examples were suggested by non-governmental organisations working on grassroots economic development initiatives and small-scale infrastructure projects in the region. The direct observations available for these subcatchments are limited to spatial data (elevation, snow parameters). The challenge at this level is to accurately extrapolate areal values (precipitation, temperature, runoff) from point observations at the basin scale. The study assesses both the degree of similarity in the distribution of spatial parameters to the larger gauged basins and the interannual variability (spatial heterogeneity) of remotely-sensed snow cover and snow-water-equivalent at this subcatchment scale. Based upon the characterisation of spatial and interannual variability at these three spatial scales, the challenges facing local water resource managers and infrastructure operators are enumerated. Local vulnerabilities include, but are not limited to, varying thresholds in irrigation water requirements based on crop-type, minimum base flows for micro-hydropower generation during winter (high load) months and relatively small but growing demand for domestic water usage. In conclusion the study posits potential strategies for managing interannual variability and potential emerging trends. Suggested strategies are guided by the principles of low-risk adaptation, participative decision making and local capacity building.

Accounting for animal movement in estimation of resource selection functions: sampling and data analysis.

PubMed

Forester, James D; Im, Hae Kyung; Rathouz, Paul J

2009-12-01

Patterns of resource selection by animal populations emerge as a result of the behavior of many individuals. Statistical models that describe these population-level patterns of habitat use can miss important interactions between individual animals and characteristics of their local environment; however, identifying these interactions is difficult. One approach to this problem is to incorporate models of individual movement into resource selection models. To do this, we propose a model for step selection functions (SSF) that is composed of a resource-independent movement kernel and a resource selection function (RSF). We show that standard case-control logistic regression may be used to fit the SSF; however, the sampling scheme used to generate control points (i.e., the definition of availability) must be accommodated. We used three sampling schemes to analyze simulated movement data and found that ignoring sampling and the resource-independent movement kernel yielded biased estimates of selection. The level of bias depended on the method used to generate control locations, the strength of selection, and the spatial scale of the resource map. Using empirical or parametric methods to sample control locations produced biased estimates under stronger selection; however, we show that the addition of a distance function to the analysis substantially reduced that bias. Assuming a uniform availability within a fixed buffer yielded strongly biased selection estimates that could be corrected by including the distance function but remained inefficient relative to the empirical and parametric sampling methods. As a case study, we used location data collected from elk in Yellowstone National Park, USA, to show that selection and bias may be temporally variable. Because under constant selection the amount of bias depends on the scale at which a resource is distributed in the landscape, we suggest that distance always be included as a covariate in SSF analyses. This approach to modeling resource selection is easily implemented using common statistical tools and promises to provide deeper insight into the movement ecology of animals.

Techniques and resources for storm-scale numerical weather prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Droegemeier, Kelvin; Grell, Georg; Doyle, James; Soong, Su-Tzai; Skamarock, William; Bacon, David; Staniforth, Andrew; Crook, Andrew; Wilhelmson, Robert

1993-01-01

The topics discussed include the following: multiscale application of the 5th-generation PSU/NCAR mesoscale model, the coupling of nonhydrostatic atmospheric and hydrostatic ocean models for air-sea interaction studies; a numerical simulation of cloud formation over complex topography; adaptive grid simulations of convection; an unstructured grid, nonhydrostatic meso/cloud scale model; efficient mesoscale modeling for multiple scales using variable resolution; initialization of cloud-scale models with Doppler radar data; and making effective use of future computing architectures, networks, and visualization software.

Assessing climate change impacts on water resources in remote mountain regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buytaert, Wouter; De Bièvre, Bert

2013-04-01

From a water resources perspective, remote mountain regions are often considered as a basket case. They are often regions where poverty is often interlocked with multiple threats to water supply, data scarcity, and high uncertainties. In these environments, it is paramount to generate locally relevant knowledge about water resources and how they impact local livelihoods. This is often problematic. Existing environmental data collection tends to be geographically biased towards more densely populated regions, and prioritized towards strategic economic activities. Data may also be locked behind institutional and technological barriers. These issues create a "knowledge trap" for data-poor regions, which is especially acute in remote and hard-to-reach mountain regions. We present lessons learned from a decade of water resources research in remote mountain regions of the Andes, Africa and South Asia. We review the entire tool chain of assessing climate change impacts on water resources, including the interrogation and downscaling of global circulation models, translating climate variables in water availability and access, and assessing local vulnerability. In global circulation models, mountain regions often stand out as regions of high uncertainties and lack of agreement of future trends. This is partly a technical artifact because of the different resolution and representation of mountain topography, but it also highlights fundamental uncertainties in climate impacts on mountain climate. This problem also affects downscaling efforts, because regional climate models should be run in very high spatial resolution to resolve local gradients, which is computationally very expensive. At the same time statistical downscaling methods may fail to find significant relations between local climate properties and synoptic processes. Further uncertainties are introduced when downscaled climate variables such as precipitation and temperature are to be translated in hydrologically relevant variables such as streamflow and groundwater recharge. Fundamental limitations in both the understanding of hydrological processes in mountain regions (e.g., glacier melt, wetland attenuation, groundwater flows) and in data availability introduce large uncertainties. Lastly, assessing access to water resources is a major challenge. Topographical gradients and barriers, as well as strong spatiotemporal variations in hydrological processes, makes it particularly difficult to assess which parts of the mountain population is most vulnerable to future perturbations of the water cycle.

Air emissions due to wind and solar power.

PubMed

Katzenstein, Warren; Apt, Jay

2009-01-15

Renewables portfolio standards (RPS) encourage large-scale deployment of wind and solar electric power. Their power output varies rapidly, even when several sites are added together. In many locations, natural gas generators are the lowest cost resource available to compensate for this variability, and must ramp up and down quickly to keep the grid stable, affecting their emissions of NOx and CO2. We model a wind or solar photovoltaic plus gas system using measured 1-min time-resolved emissions and heat rate data from two types of natural gas generators, and power data from four wind plants and one solar plant. Over a wide range of renewable penetration, we find CO2 emissions achieve approximately 80% of the emissions reductions expected if the power fluctuations caused no additional emissions. Using steam injection, gas generators achieve only 30-50% of expected NOx emissions reductions, and with dry control NOx emissions increase substantially. We quantify the interaction between state RPSs and NOx constraints, finding that states with substantial RPSs could see significant upward pressure on NOx permit prices, if the gas turbines we modeled are representative of the plants used to mitigate wind and solar power variability.

Geospatial distribution modeling and determining suitability of groundwater quality for irrigation purpose using geospatial methods and water quality index (WQI) in Northern Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gidey, Amanuel

2018-06-01

Determining suitability and vulnerability of groundwater quality for irrigation use is a key alarm and first aid for careful management of groundwater resources to diminish the impacts on irrigation. This study was conducted to determine the overall suitability of groundwater quality for irrigation use and to generate their spatial distribution maps in Elala catchment, Northern Ethiopia. Thirty-nine groundwater samples were collected to analyze and map the water quality variables. Atomic absorption spectrophotometer, ultraviolet spectrophotometer, titration and calculation methods were used for laboratory groundwater quality analysis. Arc GIS, geospatial analysis tools, semivariogram model types and interpolation methods were used to generate geospatial distribution maps. Twelve and eight water quality variables were used to produce weighted overlay and irrigation water quality index models, respectively. Root-mean-square error, mean square error, absolute square error, mean error, root-mean-square standardized error, measured values versus predicted values were used for cross-validation. The overall weighted overlay model result showed that 146 km2 areas are highly suitable, 135 km2 moderately suitable and 60 km2 area unsuitable for irrigation use. The result of irrigation water quality index confirms 10.26% with no restriction, 23.08% with low restriction, 20.51% with moderate restriction, 15.38% with high restriction and 30.76% with the severe restriction for irrigation use. GIS and irrigation water quality index are better methods for irrigation water resources management to achieve a full yield irrigation production to improve food security and to sustain it for a long period, to avoid the possibility of increasing environmental problems for the future generation.

A Precipitation Climatology of the Snowy Mountains, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Theobald, Alison; McGowan, Hamish; Speirs, Johanna

2014-05-01

The precipitation that falls in the Snowy Mountains region of southeastern Australia provides critical water resources for hydroelectric power generation. Water storages in this region are also a major source of agricultural irrigation, environmental flows, and offer a degree of flood protection for some of the major river systems in Australia. Despite this importance, there remains a knowledge gap regarding the long-term, historic variability of the synoptic weather systems that deliver precipitation to the region. This research aims to increase the understanding of long-term variations in precipitation-bearing weather systems resulting in runoff into the Snowy Mountains catchments and reservoirs, and the way in which these are influenced by large-scale climate drivers. Here we present initial results on the development of a climatology of precipitation-bearing synoptic weather systems (synoptic typology), spanning a period of over 100 years. The synoptic typology is developed from the numerical weather model re-analysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), in conjunction with regional precipitation and temperature data from a network of private gauges. Given the importance of surface, mid- and upper-air patterns on seasonal precipitation, the synoptic typing will be based on a range of meteorological variables throughout the depth of the troposphere, highlighting the importance of different atmospheric levels on the development and steering of synoptic precipitation bearing systems. The temporal and spatial variability of these synoptic systems, their response to teleconnection forcings and their contribution to inflow generation in the headwater catchments of the Snowy Mountains will be investigated. The resulting climatology will provide new understanding of the drivers of regional-scale precipitation variability at inter- and intra-annual timescales. It will enable greater understanding of how variability in synoptic scale atmospheric circulation affects the hydroclimate of alpine environments in southeast Australia - allowing recently observed precipitation declines to be placed in the context of a long-term record spanning at least 100 years. This information will provide further insight into the impacts of predicted anthropogenic climate change and will ultimately lead to more informed water resource management in the Snowy Mountains.

Simulation analyses of space use: Home range estimates, variability, and sample size

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bekoff, Marc; Mech, L. David

1984-01-01

Simulations of space use by animals were run to determine the relationship among home range area estimates, variability, and sample size (number of locations). As sample size increased, home range size increased asymptotically, whereas variability decreased among mean home range area estimates generated by multiple simulations for the same sample size. Our results suggest that field workers should ascertain between 100 and 200 locations in order to estimate reliably home range area. In some cases, this suggested guideline is higher than values found in the few published studies in which the relationship between home range area and number of locations is addressed. Sampling differences for small species occupying relatively small home ranges indicate that fewer locations may be sufficient to allow for a reliable estimate of home range. Intraspecific variability in social status (group member, loner, resident, transient), age, sex, reproductive condition, and food resources also have to be considered, as do season, habitat, and differences in sampling and analytical methods. Comparative data still are needed.

Predicted stand volume for Eucalyptus plantations by spatial analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Latifah, Siti; Teodoro, RV; Myrna, GC; Nathaniel, CB; Leonardo, M. F.

2018-03-01

The main objective of the present study was to assess nonlinear models generated by integrating the stand volume growth rate to estimate the growth and yield of Eucalyptus. The primary data was done for point of interest (POI) of permanent sample plots (PSPs) and inventory sample plots, in Aek Nauli sector, Simalungun regency,North Sumatera Province,Indonesia. from December 2008- March 2009. Today,the demand for forestry information has continued to grow over recent years. Because many forest managers and decision makers face complex decisions, reliable information has become the necessity. In the assessment of natural resources including plantation forests have been widely used geospatial technology.The yield of Eucalyptus plantations represented by merchantable volume as dependent variable while factors affecting yield namely stands variables and the geographic variables as independent variables. The majority of the areas in the study site has stand volume class 0 - 50 m3/ha with 16.59 ha or 65.85 % of the total study site.

Dynamical aspects of behavior generation under constraints

PubMed Central

Harter, Derek; Achunala, Srinivas

2007-01-01

Dynamic adaptation is a key feature of brains helping to maintain the quality of their performance in the face of increasingly difficult constraints. How to achieve high-quality performance under demanding real-time conditions is an important question in the study of cognitive behaviors. Animals and humans are embedded in and constrained by their environments. Our goal is to improve the understanding of the dynamics of the interacting brain–environment system by studying human behaviors when completing constrained tasks and by modeling the observed behavior. In this article we present results of experiments with humans performing tasks on the computer under variable time and resource constraints. We compare various models of behavior generation in order to describe the observed human performance. Finally we speculate on mechanisms how chaotic neurodynamics can contribute to the generation of flexible human behaviors under constraints. PMID:19003514

30 CFR 1206.354 - How do I determine generating deductions?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... 30 Mineral Resources 3 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false How do I determine generating deductions? 1206.354 Section 1206.354 Mineral Resources OFFICE OF NATURAL RESOURCES REVENUE, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR NATURAL RESOURCES REVENUE PRODUCT VALUATION Geothermal Resources § 1206.354 How do I determine generating...

Stochastic population dynamics under resource constraints

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gavane, Ajinkya S., E-mail: ajinkyagavane@gmail.com; Nigam, Rahul, E-mail: rahul.nigam@hyderabad.bits-pilani.ac.in

This paper investigates the population growth of a certain species in which every generation reproduces thrice over a period of predefined time, under certain constraints of resources needed for survival of population. We study the survival period of a species by randomizing the reproduction probabilities within a window at same predefined ages and the resources are being produced by the working force of the population at a variable rate. This randomness in the reproduction rate makes the population growth stochastic in nature and one cannot predict the exact form of evolution. Hence we study the growth by running simulations formore » such a population and taking an ensemble averaged over 500 to 5000 such simulations as per the need. While the population reproduces in a stochastic manner, we have implemented a constraint on the amount of resources available for the population. This is important to make the simulations more realistic. The rate of resource production then is tuned to find the rate which suits the survival of the species. We also compute the mean life time of the species corresponding to different resource production rate. Study for these outcomes in the parameter space defined by the reproduction probabilities and rate of resource production is carried out.« less

Repeat-until-success cubic phase gate for universal continuous-variable quantum computation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Marshall, Kevin; Pooser, Raphael; Siopsis, George

2015-03-24

We report that to achieve universal quantum computation using continuous variables, one needs to jump out of the set of Gaussian operations and have a non-Gaussian element, such as the cubic phase gate. However, such a gate is currently very difficult to implement in practice. Here we introduce an experimentally viable “repeat-until-success” approach to generating the cubic phase gate, which is achieved using sequential photon subtractions and Gaussian operations. Ultimately, we find that our scheme offers benefits in terms of the expected time until success, as well as the fact that we do not require any complex off-line resource state,more » although we require a primitive quantum memory.« less

Stochastic investigation of wind process for climatic variability identification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deligiannis, Ilias; Tyrogiannis, Vassilis; Daskalou, Olympia; Dimitriadis, Panayiotis; Markonis, Yannis; Iliopoulou, Theano; Koutsoyiannis, Demetris

2016-04-01

The wind process is considered one of the hydrometeorological processes that generates and drives the climate dynamics. We use a dataset comprising hourly wind records to identify statistical variability with emphasis on the last period. Specifically, we investigate the occurrence of mean, maximum and minimum values and we estimate statistical properties such as marginal probability distribution function and the type of decay of the climacogram (i.e., mean process variance vs. scale) for various time periods. Acknowledgement: This research is conducted within the frame of the undergraduate course "Stochastic Methods in Water Resources" of the National Technical University of Athens (NTUA). The School of Civil Engineering of NTUA provided moral support for the participation of the students in the Assembly.

Quantum information processing with a travelling wave of light

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serikawa, Takahiro; Shiozawa, Yu; Ogawa, Hisashi; Takanashi, Naoto; Takeda, Shuntaro; Yoshikawa, Jun-ichi; Furusawa, Akira

2018-02-01

We exploit quantum information processing on a traveling wave of light, expecting emancipation from thermal noise, easy coupling to fiber communication, and potentially high operation speed. Although optical memories are technically challenging, we have an alternative approach to apply multi-step operations on traveling light, that is, continuous-variable one-way computation. So far our achievement includes generation of a one-million-mode entangled chain in time-domain, mode engineering of nonlinear resource states, and real-time nonlinear feedforward. Although they are implemented with free space optics, we are also investigating photonic integration and performed quantum teleportation with a passive liner waveguide chip as a demonstration of entangling, measurement, and feedforward. We also suggest a loop-based architecture as another model of continuous-variable computing.

Fluctuations in food supply drive recruitment variation in a marine fish.

PubMed

Okamoto, Daniel K; Schmitt, Russell J; Holbrook, Sally J; Reed, Daniel C

2012-11-22

Reproductive rates and survival of young in animal populations figure centrally in generating management and conservation strategies. Model systems suggest that food supply can drive these often highly variable properties, yet for many wild species, quantifying such effects and assessing their implications have been challenging. We used spatially explicit time series of a well-studied marine reef fish (black surfperch Embiotoca jacksoni) and its known prey resources to evaluate the extent to which fluctuations in food supply influenced production of young by adults and survival of young to subadulthood. Our analyses reveal: (i) variable food available to both adults and to their offspring directly produced an order of magnitude variation in the number of young-of-year (YOY) produced per adult and (ii) food available to YOY produced a similar magnitude of variation in their subsequent survival. We also show that such large natural variation in vital rates can significantly alter decision thresholds (biological reference points) important for precautionary management. These findings reveal how knowledge of food resources can improve understanding of population dynamics and reduce risk of overharvest by more accurately identifying periods of low recruitment.

Study for the selection of optimal site in northeastern, Mexico for wind power generation using genetic algorithms.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzalez, T.; Ruvalcaba, A.; Oliver, L.

2016-12-01

The electricity generation from renewable resources has acquired a leading role. Mexico particularrly it has great interest in renewable natural resources for power generation, especially wind energy. Therefore, the country is rapidly entering in the development of wind power generators sites. The development of a wind places as an energy project, does not have a standardized methodology. Techniques vary according to the developer to select the best place to install a wind turbine system. Generally to install the system the developers consider three key factors: 1) the characteristics of the wind, 2) the potential distribution of electricity and 3) transport access to the site. This paper presents a study with a different methodology which is carried out in two stages: the first at regional scale uses "space" and "natural" criteria in order to select a region based on its cartographic features such as politics and physiographic division, location of conservation natural areas, water bodies, urban criteria; and natural criteria such as the amount and direction of the wind, the type and land use, vegetation, topography and biodiversity of the site. The result of the application of these criteria, gives a first optimal selection area. The second part of the methodology includes criteria and variables on detail scale. The analysis of all data information collected will provide new parameters (decision variables) for the site. The overall analysis of the information, based in these criteria, indicates that the best location that the best location of the field would be the southern Coahuila and the central part of Nuevo Leon. The wind power site will contribute to the economy grow of important cities including Monterrey. Finally, computational model of genetic algorithm will be used as a tool to determine the best site selection depending on the parameters considered.

Remote creation of hybrid entanglement between particle-like and wave-like optical qubits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morin, Olivier; Huang, Kun; Liu, Jianli; Le Jeannic, Hanna; Fabre, Claude; Laurat, Julien

2014-07-01

The wave-particle duality of light has led to two different encodings for optical quantum information processing. Several approaches have emerged based either on particle-like discrete-variable states (that is, finite-dimensional quantum systems) or on wave-like continuous-variable states (that is, infinite-dimensional systems). Here, we demonstrate the generation of entanglement between optical qubits of these different types, located at distant places and connected by a lossy channel. Such hybrid entanglement, which is a key resource for a variety of recently proposed schemes, including quantum cryptography and computing, enables information to be converted from one Hilbert space to the other via teleportation and therefore the connection of remote quantum processors based upon different encodings. Beyond its fundamental significance for the exploration of entanglement and its possible instantiations, our optical circuit holds promise for implementations of heterogeneous network, where discrete- and continuous-variable operations and techniques can be efficiently combined.

The feasibility of applying geopressured-geothermal resources to direct uses

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lunis, B.C.; Negus-de Wys, J.; Plum, M.M.

1991-09-01

This study concludes that direct use technologies, especially desalinated water production, can contribute significantly to the value added process and the overall economic viability in developing a geopressured resource. Although agriculture and aquaculture applications are marginal projects when they are the only use of a geopressured well, the small margin of profitability can contribute to improving the overall economics of the direct use development. The added complexity from a technical and management aspect may add to the overall risk and unpredictability of the project. Six combination of direct uses received economic evaluation that resulted in 15% discounted payback periods rangingmore » from 4 to over 10 years. Many other combinations are possible depending on the resource and market variables. Selection of appropriate technologies and sizes of applications will be established by the developer that engages in geopressured resource utilization. Currently, many areas of the country where geopressured resources are located also have surplus electrical capacity and generation, thus power utilities have been selling power for less than 2 cents per kWH, well below a reasonable breakeven value for geopressured produced electricity. However, when the energy demand of the integrated geopressured facility is large enough to install power generation equipment, operating expenses can be reduced by not paying the 10 to 12 cents per kWH utility rate. The study includes an analysis of a geothermal turbine unit installed with a desalination and an agriculture/aquaculture facility, taking advantage of the cascading energy values. Results suggest that this scenario becomes profitable only where the market price for electricity exceeds five cents per kWH.« less

The feasibility of applying geopressured-geothermal resources to direct uses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lunis, Ben C.; Dewys, Jane Negus; Plum, Martin M.; Lienau, Paul J.; Spencer, F. J.; Nitschke, George F.

1991-09-01

This study concludes that direct use technologies, especially desalinated water production, can contribute significantly to the value added process and the overall economic viability in developing a geopressured resource. Although agriculture and aquaculture applications are marginal projects when they are the only use of a geopressured well, the small margin of profitability can contribute to improving the overall economics of the direct use development. The added complexity from a technical and management aspect may add to the overall risk and unpredictability of the project. Six combinations of direct uses received economic evaluation that resulted in 15 percent discounted payback periods ranging from 4 to over 10 years. Many other combinations are possible depending on the resource and market variables. Selection of appropriate technologies and sizes of applications will be established by the developer that engages in geopressured resource utilization. Currently, many areas of the country where geopressured resources are located also have surplus electrical capacity and generation; thus power utilities have been selling power for less than two cents per kWH, well below a reasonable breakeven value for geopressured produced electricity. However, when the energy demand of the integrated geopressured facility is large enough to install power generation equipment, operating expenses can be reduced by not paying the 10 to 12 cents per kWH utility rate. The study includes an analysis of a geothermal turbine unit installed with a desalination and an agriculture/aquaculture facility, taking advantage of the cascading energy values. Results suggest that this scenario becomes profitable only where the market price for electricity exceeds five cents per kWH.

Resource utilization in home health care: results of a prospective study.

PubMed

Trisolini, M G; Thomas, C P; Cashman, S B; Payne, S M

1994-01-01

Resource utilization in home health care has become an issue of concern due to rising costs and recent initiatives to develop prospective payment systems for home health care. A number of issues remain unresolved for the development of prospective reimbursement in this sector, including the types of variables to be included as payment variables and appropriate measures of resource use. This study supplements previous work on home health case-mix by analyzing the factors affecting one aspect of resource use for skilled nursing visits--visit length--and explores the usefulness of several specially collected variables which are not routinely available in administrative records. A data collection instrument was developed with a focus group of skilled nurses, identifying a range of variables hypothesized to affect visit length. Five categories of variables were studied using multiple regression analysis: provider-related; patient's socio-economic status; patient's clinical status; patient's support services; and visit-specific. The final regression model identifies 9 variables which significantly affect visit time. Five of the 9 are visit-specific variables, a significant finding since these are not routinely collected. Case-mix systems which include visit time as a measure of resource use will need to investigate visit-specific variables, as this study indicates they could have the largest influence on visit time. Two other types of resources used in home health care, supplies and security drivers, were also investigated in less detail.

Characterization of wind power resource and its intermittency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gunturu, U. B.; Schlosser, C. A.

2011-12-01

Wind resource in the continental and offshore United States has been calculated and characterized using metrics that describe - apart from abundance - its availability, persistence and intermittency. The Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) boundary layer flux data has been used to construct wind power density profiles at 50, 80, 100 and 120 m turbine hub heights. The wind power density estimates at 50 m are qualitatively similar to those in the US wind atlas developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), but quantitatively a class less in some regions, but are within the limits of uncertainty. We also show that for long tailed distributions like those of the wind power density, the mean is an overestimation and median is a more robust metric for summary representation of wind power resource.Generally speaking, the largest and most available wind power density resources are found in off-shore regions of the Atlantic and Pacific coastline, and the largest on-shore resource potential lies in the central United States. However, the intermittency and widespread synchronicity of on-shore wind power density are substantial, and highlights areas where considerable back-up generation technologies will be required. Generation-duration curves are also presented for the independent systems operator (ISO) zones of the U.S. to highlight the regions with the largest capacity factor (MISO, ERCOT, and SWPP) as well as the periods and extent to which all ISOs contain no wind power and the potential benefits of aggregation on wind power intermittency in each region. The impact of raising the wind turbine hub height on metrics of abundance, persistence, variability and intermittency is analyzed. There is a general increase in availability and abundance of wind resource but there is also an increase in intermittency with respect to a 'usable wind power' crossing level in low resource regions. A similar perspective of wind resource for other regions of the world such as, Europe, India and China is also summarized and notable features highlighted.

On the Use of the Beta Distribution in Probabilistic Resource Assessments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Olea, R.A.

2011-01-01

The triangular distribution is a popular choice when it comes to modeling bounded continuous random variables. Its wide acceptance derives mostly from its simple analytic properties and the ease with which modelers can specify its three parameters through the extremes and the mode. On the negative side, hardly any real process follows a triangular distribution, which from the outset puts at a disadvantage any model employing triangular distributions. At a time when numerical techniques such as the Monte Carlo method are displacing analytic approaches in stochastic resource assessments, easy specification remains the most attractive characteristic of the triangular distribution. The beta distribution is another continuous distribution defined within a finite interval offering wider flexibility in style of variation, thus allowing consideration of models in which the random variables closely follow the observed or expected styles of variation. Despite its more complex definition, generation of values following a beta distribution is as straightforward as generating values following a triangular distribution, leaving the selection of parameters as the main impediment to practically considering beta distributions. This contribution intends to promote the acceptance of the beta distribution by explaining its properties and offering several suggestions to facilitate the specification of its two shape parameters. In general, given the same distributional parameters, use of the beta distributions in stochastic modeling may yield significantly different results, yet better estimates, than the triangular distribution. ?? 2011 International Association for Mathematical Geology (outside the USA).

Quantitative variability of renewable energy resources in Norway

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Christakos, Konstantinos; Varlas, George; Cheliotis, Ioannis; Aalstad, Kristoffer; Papadopoulos, Anastasios; Katsafados, Petros; Steeneveld, Gert-Jan

2017-04-01

Based on European Union (EU) targets for 2030, the share of renewable energy (RE) consumption should be increased at 27%. RE resources such as hydropower, wind, wave power and solar power are strongly depending on the chaotic behavior of the weather conditions and climate. Due to this dependency, the prediction of the spatiotemporal variability of the RE resources is more crucial factor than in other energy resources (i.e. carbon based energy). The fluctuation of the RE resources can affect the development of the RE technologies, the energy grid, supply and prices. This study investigates the variability of the potential RE resources in Norway. More specifically, hydropower, wind, wave, and solar power are quantitatively analyzed and correlated with respect to various spatial and temporal scales. In order to analyze the diversities and their interrelationships, reanalysis and observational data of wind, precipitation, wave, and solar radiation are used for a quantitative assessment. The results indicate a high variability of marine RE resources in the North Sea and the Norwegian Sea.

Robustness of norm-driven cooperation in the commons

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Sustainable use of common-pool resources such as fish, water or forests depends on the cooperation of resource users that restrain their individual extraction to socially optimal levels. Empirical evidence has shown that under certain social and biophysical conditions, self-organized cooperation in the commons can evolve. Global change, however, may drastically alter these conditions. We assess the robustness of cooperation to environmental variability in a stylized model of a community that harvests a shared resource. Community members follow a norm of socially optimal resource extraction, which is enforced through social sanctioning. Our results indicate that both resource abundance and a small increase in resource variability can lead to collapse of cooperation observed in the no-variability case, while either scarcity or large variability have the potential to stabilize it. The combined effects of changes in amount and variability can reinforce or counteract each other depending on their size and the initial level of cooperation in the community. If two socially separate groups are ecologically connected through resource leakage, cooperation in one can destabilize the other. These findings provide insights into possible effects of global change and spatial connectivity, indicating that there is no simple answer as to their effects on cooperation and sustainable resource use. PMID:26740611

Development of gridded solar radiation data over Belgium based on Meteosat and in-situ observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Journée, Michel; Vanderveken, Gilles; Bertrand, Cédric

2013-04-01

Knowledge on solar resources is highly important for all forms of solar energy applications. With the recent development in solar-based technologies national meteorological services are faced with increasing demands for high-quality and reliable site-time specific solar resource information. Traditionally, solar radiation is observed by means of networks of meteorological stations. Costs for installation and maintenance of such networks are very high and national networks comprise only few stations. Consequently the availability of ground-based solar radiation measurements has proven to be spatially and temporally inadequate for many applications. To overcome such a limitation, a major effort has been undertaken at the Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium (RMI) to provide the solar energy industry, the electricity sector, governments, and renewable energy organizations and institutions with the most suitable and accurate information on the solar radiation resources at the Earth's surface over the Belgian territory. Only space-based observations can deliver a global coverage of the solar irradiation impinging on horizontal surface at the ground level. Because only geostationary data allow to capture the diurnal cycle of the solar irradiance at the Earth's surface, a method that combines information from Meteosat Second Generation satellites and ground-measurement has been implemented at RMI to generate high resolution solar products over Belgium on an operational basis. Besides these new products, the annual and seasonal variability of solar energy resource was evaluated, solar radiation climate zones were defined and the recent trend in solar radiation was characterized.

Investigating pyrolysis/incineration as a method of resource recovery from solid waste

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robertson, Bobby J.; Lemay, Christopher S.

1993-01-01

Pyrolysis/incineration (P/I) is a physicochemical method for the generation of recoverable resources from solid waste materials such as inedible plant biomass (IPB), paper, plastics, cardboard, etc. P/I permits the collection of numerous gases with a minimal amount of solid residue. Pyrolysis, also known as starved air incineration, is usually conducted at relatively high temperatures (greater than 500 deg C) in the absence of oxygen. Incineration is conducted at lower temperatures in the presence of oxygen. The primary purpose of this study was to design, construct, and test a model P/I. The system design includes safety requirements for temperature and pressure. The objectives of this study were: (1) to design and construct a P/I system for incorporation with the Hybrid Regenerative Water Recovery System; (2) to initiate testing of the P/I system; (3) to collect and analyze P/I system data; (4) to consider test variables; and (5) to determine the feasibility of P/I as an effective method of resource recovery. A P/I system for the recovery of reuseable resources from solid waste materials was designed, constructed, and tested. Since a large amount of inedible plant biomass (IPB) will be generated in a space-based habitat on the lunar surface and Mars, IPB was the primary waste material tested in the system. Analysis of the effluent gases was performed to determine which gases could be used in a life support system.

On grey levels in random CAPTCHA generation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Newton, Fraser; Kouritzin, Michael A.

2011-06-01

A CAPTCHA is an automatically generated test designed to distinguish between humans and computer programs; specifically, they are designed to be easy for humans but difficult for computer programs to pass in order to prevent the abuse of resources by automated bots. They are commonly seen guarding webmail registration forms, online auction sites, and preventing brute force attacks on passwords. In the following, we address the question: How does adding a grey level to random CAPTCHA generation affect the utility of the CAPTCHA? We treat the problem of generating the random CAPTCHA as one of random field simulation: An initial state of background noise is evolved over time using Gibbs sampling and an efficient algorithm for generating correlated random variables. This approach has already been found to yield highly-readable yet difficult-to-crack CAPTCHAs. We detail how the requisite parameters for introducing grey levels are estimated and how we generate the random CAPTCHA. The resulting CAPTCHA will be evaluated in terms of human readability as well as its resistance to automated attacks in the forms of character segmentation and optical character recognition.

An inexact mixed risk-aversion two-stage stochastic programming model for water resources management under uncertainty.

PubMed

Li, W; Wang, B; Xie, Y L; Huang, G H; Liu, L

2015-02-01

Uncertainties exist in the water resources system, while traditional two-stage stochastic programming is risk-neutral and compares the random variables (e.g., total benefit) to identify the best decisions. To deal with the risk issues, a risk-aversion inexact two-stage stochastic programming model is developed for water resources management under uncertainty. The model was a hybrid methodology of interval-parameter programming, conditional value-at-risk measure, and a general two-stage stochastic programming framework. The method extends on the traditional two-stage stochastic programming method by enabling uncertainties presented as probability density functions and discrete intervals to be effectively incorporated within the optimization framework. It could not only provide information on the benefits of the allocation plan to the decision makers but also measure the extreme expected loss on the second-stage penalty cost. The developed model was applied to a hypothetical case of water resources management. Results showed that that could help managers generate feasible and balanced risk-aversion allocation plans, and analyze the trade-offs between system stability and economy.

Applying Semantic Web technologies to improve the retrieval, credibility and use of health-related web resources.

PubMed

Mayer, Miguel A; Karampiperis, Pythagoras; Kukurikos, Antonis; Karkaletsis, Vangelis; Stamatakis, Kostas; Villarroel, Dagmar; Leis, Angela

2011-06-01

The number of health-related websites is increasing day-by-day; however, their quality is variable and difficult to assess. Various "trust marks" and filtering portals have been created in order to assist consumers in retrieving quality medical information. Consumers are using search engines as the main tool to get health information; however, the major problem is that the meaning of the web content is not machine-readable in the sense that computers cannot understand words and sentences as humans can. In addition, trust marks are invisible to search engines, thus limiting their usefulness in practice. During the last five years there have been different attempts to use Semantic Web tools to label health-related web resources to help internet users identify trustworthy resources. This paper discusses how Semantic Web technologies can be applied in practice to generate machine-readable labels and display their content, as well as to empower end-users by providing them with the infrastructure for expressing and sharing their opinions on the quality of health-related web resources.

Flexible CRISPR library construction using parallel oligonucleotide retrieval

PubMed Central

Read, Abigail; Gao, Shaojian; Batchelor, Eric

2017-01-01

Abstract CRISPR/Cas9-based gene knockout libraries have emerged as a powerful tool for functional screens. We present here a set of pre-designed human and mouse sgRNA sequences that are optimized for both high on-target potency and low off-target effect. To maximize the chance of target gene inactivation, sgRNAs were curated to target both 5΄ constitutive exons and exons that encode conserved protein domains. We describe here a robust and cost-effective method to construct multiple small sized CRISPR library from a single oligo pool generated by array synthesis using parallel oligonucleotide retrieval. Together, these resources provide a convenient means for individual labs to generate customized CRISPR libraries of variable size and coverage depth for functional genomics application. PMID:28334828

A Probabilistic Assessment of Threats to Surface Water Resources in Watersheds of the Lower Colorado River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murphy, K. W.; Ellis, A. W.

2012-12-01

The Salt and Verde River watersheds in the Lower Colorado River Basin are a very important surface water resource in the Southwest United States. Their runoff is captured by a downstream reservoir system serving approximately 40% of the water demand and providing hydroelectric power to the Phoenix, Arizona area. Concerns have been expressed over the risks associated with their highly variable climate dependencies under the realization that the short, historical stream flow record was but one of many possible temporal and volumetric outcome sequences. A characterization of the possible range of flow deficits arising from natural variability beyond those evident in the instrumental record can facilitate sustainability planning as well as adaptation to future climate change scenarios. Methods were developed for this study to generate very long seasonal time series of net reservoir inflows by Monte Carlo simulations of the Salt and Verde watersheds which can be analyzed for detailed probabilistic insights. Other efforts to generate stochastic flow representations for impact assessments have been limited by normality distribution assumptions, inability to represent the covariance of flow contributions from multiple watersheds, complexities of different seasonal origins of precipitation and runoff dependencies, and constraints from spectral properties of the observational record. These difficulties were overcome in this study through stationarity assessments and development of joint probability distributions with highly skewed discrete density functions characteristic of the different watershed-season behaviors derived from a 123 year record. As well, methods of introducing season-to-season correlations owing to antecedent precipitation runoff efficiency enhancements have been incorporated. Representative 10,000 year time series have been stochastically generated which reflect a full range of temporal variability in flow volume distributions. Extreme value statistical analysis methods have been employed to characterize periods of flow deficit per various definitions of a drought period. Of concern for water resources are periods of net flows lower than those necessary to maintain reservoirs without sequential depletions. Probabilities of droughts lasting from only a few years up to 25 years duration have been identified along with their distributions of time to occurrence and cumulative flow deficits which can reach 50%. The analysis has yielded representations of the full range of drought severity in both depth and duration, providing useful quantitative guidance to risk management. Similarly, the risks of extremely high flows can be quantified. This study demonstrates that the instrumented historical record, once fully characterized and probabilistically represented, can yield many more insights to threatening periods of both hydrologic deficit and excess than is often assumed.

Time-on-task effects in children with and without ADHD: depletion of executive resources or depletion of motivation?

PubMed

Dekkers, Tycho J; Agelink van Rentergem, Joost A; Koole, Alette; van den Wildenberg, Wery P M; Popma, Arne; Bexkens, Anika; Stoffelsen, Reino; Diekmann, Anouk; Huizenga, Hilde M

2017-12-01

Children with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) are characterized by deficits in their executive functioning and motivation. In addition, these children are characterized by a decline in performance as time-on-task increases (i.e., time-on-task effects). However, it is unknown whether these time-on-task effects should be attributed to deficits in executive functioning or to deficits in motivation. Some studies in typically developing (TD) adults indicated that time-on-task effects should be interpreted as depletion of executive resources, but other studies suggested that they represent depletion of motivation. We, therefore, investigated, in children with and without ADHD, whether there were time-on-task effects on executive functions, such as inhibition and (in)attention, and whether these were best explained by depletion of executive resources or depletion of motivation. The stop-signal task (SST), which generates both indices of inhibition (stop-signal reaction time) and attention (reaction time variability and errors), was administered in 96 children (42 ADHD, 54 TD controls; aged 9-13). To differentiate between depletion of resources and depletion of motivation, the SST was administered twice. Half of the participants was reinforced during second task performance, potentially counteracting depletion of motivation. Multilevel analyses indicated that children with ADHD were more affected by time-on-task than controls on two measures of inattention, but not on inhibition. In the ADHD group, reinforcement only improved performance on one index of attention (i.e., reaction time variability). The current findings suggest that time-on-task effects in children with ADHD occur specifically in the attentional domain, and seem to originate in both depletion of executive resources and depletion of motivation. Clinical implications for diagnostics, psycho-education, and intervention are discussed.

Integrated Water Resources Planning and Management in Arid/Semi-arid Regions: Data, Modeling, and Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gupta, H.; Liu, Y.; Wagener, T.; Durcik, M.; Duffy, C.; Springer, E.

2005-12-01

Water resources in arid and semi-arid regions are highly sensitive to climate variability and change. As the demand for water continues to increase due to economic and population growth, planning and management of available water resources under climate uncertainties becomes increasingly critical in order to achieve basin-scale water sustainability (i.e., to ensure a long-term balance between supply and demand of water).The tremendous complexity of the interactions between the natural hydrologic system and the human environment means that modeling is the only available mechanism for properly integrating new knowledge into the decision-making process. Basin-scale integrated models have the potential to allow us to study the feedback processes between the physical and human systems (including institutional, engineering, and behavioral components); and an integrated assessment of the potential second- and higher-order effects of political and management decisions can aid in the selection of a rational water-resources policy. Data and information, especially hydrological and water-use data, are critical to the integrated modeling and assessment for water resources management of any region. To this end we are in the process of developing a multi-resolution integrated modeling and assessment framework for the south-western USA, which can be used to generate simulations of the probable effects of human actions while taking into account the uncertainties brought about by future climatic variability and change. Data are being collected (including the development of a hydro-geospatial database) and used in support of the modeling and assessment activities. This paper will present a blueprint of the modeling framework, describe achievements so far and discuss the science questions which still require answers with a particular emphasis on issues related to dry regions.

Apples with apples: accounting for fuel price risk in comparisons of gas-fired and renewable generation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2003-12-18

For better or worse, natural gas has become the fuel of choice for new power plants being built across the United States. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), natural gas combined-cycle and combustion turbine power plants accounted for 96% of the total generating capacity added in the US between 1999 and 2002--138 GW out of a total of 144 GW. Looking ahead, the EIA expects that gas-fired technology will account for 61% of the 355 GW new generating capacity projected to come on-line in the US up to 2025, increasing the nationwide market share of gas-fired generation frommore » 18% in 2002 to 22% in 2025. While the data are specific to the US, natural gas-fired generation is making similar advances in other countries as well. Regardless of the explanation for (or interpretation of) the empirical findings, however, the basic implications remain the same: one should not blindly rely on gas price forecasts when comparing fixed-price renewable with variable-price gas-fired generation contracts. If there is a cost to hedging, gas price forecasts do not capture and account for it. Alternatively, if the forecasts are at risk of being biased or out of tune with the market, then one certainly would not want to use them as the basis for resource comparisons or investment decisions if a more certain source of data (forwards) existed. Accordingly, assuming that long-term price stability is valued, the most appropriate way to compare the levelized cost of these resources in both cases would be to use forward natural gas price data--i.e. prices that can be locked in to create price certainty--as opposed to uncertain natural gas price forecasts. This article suggests that had utilities and analysts in the US done so over the sample period from November 2000 to November 2003, they would have found gas-fired generation to be at least 0.3-0.6 cents/kWh more expensive (on a levelized cost basis) than otherwise thought. With some renewable resources, in particular wind power, now largely competitive with gas-fired generation in the US (including the impact of the federal production tax credit and current high gas prices), a margin of 0.3-0.6 cents/kWh may in some cases be enough to sway resource decisions in favor of renewables.« less

Predator Persistence through Variability of Resource Productivity in Tritrophic Systems.

PubMed

Soudijn, Floor H; de Roos, André M

2017-12-01

The trophic structure of species communities depends on the energy transfer between trophic levels. Primary productivity varies strongly through time, challenging the persistence of species at higher trophic levels. Yet resource variability has mostly been studied in systems with only one or two trophic levels. We test the effect of variability in resource productivity in a tritrophic model system including a resource, a size-structured consumer, and a size-specific predator. The model complies with fundamental principles of mass conservation and the body-size dependence of individual-level energetics and predator-prey interactions. Surprisingly, we find that resource variability may promote predator persistence. The positive effect of variability on the predator arises through periods with starvation mortality of juvenile prey, which reduces the intraspecific competition in the prey population. With increasing variability in productivity and starvation mortality in the juvenile prey, the prey availability increases in the size range preferred by the predator. The positive effect of prey mortality on the trophic transfer efficiency depends on the biologically realistic consideration of body size-dependent and food-dependent functions for growth and reproduction in our model. Our findings show that variability may promote the trophic transfer efficiency, indicating that environmental variability may sustain species at higher trophic levels in natural ecosystems.

The Non-Effect of Process-Product Variables in Resource Classrooms.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Skiba, Russell; And Others

To test the efficacy of variables found effective in regular classrooms (in previous process-product research), variables were observed for 126 elementary school children in 17 resource classrooms. Measurement of teacher structure and student achievement was performed. Results indicated that, although most of the variables were used to at least a…

Tubular-Type Hydroturbine Performance for Variable Guide Vane Opening by CFD

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Y. T.; Nam, S. H.; Cho, Y. J.; Hwang, Y. C.; Choi, Y. D.; Nam, C. D.; Lee, Y. H.

Micro hydraulic power generation which has output of less or equal to 100kW is attracting considerable attention. This is because of its small, simple, renewable, and large amount of energy resources. By using a small hydro power generator of which main concept is based on using differential water pressures in pipe lines, energy which was initially wasted by use of a reducing valve at an end of the pipeline, is collected by a turbine in the hydro power generator. A propeller shaped hydroturbine has been used in order to make use of this renewable pressure energy. In this study, in order to acquire basic design data of tubular type hydroturbine, output power, head, and efficiency characteristics due to the guide vane opening angle are examined in detail. Moreover, influences of pressure, tangential and axial velocity distributions on turbine performance are investigated by using a commercial CFD code.

Variable Renewable Energy in Long-Term Planning Models: A Multi-Model Perspective

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cole, Wesley J.; Frew, Bethany A.; Mai, Trieu T.

Long-term capacity expansion models of the U.S. electricity sector have long been used to inform electric sector stakeholders and decision makers. With the recent surge in variable renewable energy (VRE) generators - primarily wind and solar photovoltaics - the need to appropriately represent VRE generators in these long-term models has increased. VRE generators are especially difficult to represent for a variety of reasons, including their variability, uncertainty, and spatial diversity. To assess current best practices, share methods and data, and identify future research needs for VRE representation in capacity expansion models, four capacity expansion modeling teams from the Electric Powermore » Research Institute, the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory conducted two workshops of VRE modeling for national-scale capacity expansion models. The workshops covered a wide range of VRE topics, including transmission and VRE resource data, VRE capacity value, dispatch and operational modeling, distributed generation, and temporal and spatial resolution. The objectives of the workshops were both to better understand these topics and to improve the representation of VRE across the suite of models. Given these goals, each team incorporated model updates and performed additional analyses between the first and second workshops. This report summarizes the analyses and model 'experiments' that were conducted as part of these workshops as well as the various methods for treating VRE among the four modeling teams. The report also reviews the findings and learnings from the two workshops. We emphasize the areas where there is still need for additional research and development on analysis tools to incorporate VRE into long-term planning and decision-making.« less

Climate change and precipitation evolution in Ifran region (Middle Atlas of Morocco).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reddad, H.; Bakhat, M.; Damnati, B.

2012-04-01

Climate variability and extreme climatic events pose significant risks to human beings and generate terrestrial ecosystem dysfunctions. These effects are usually amplified by an inappropriate use of the existing natural resources. To face the new context of climate change, a rational and efficient use of these resources - particularly, water resource - on a global and regional scale must be implemented. Annual precipitation provides an overall amount of water, the assessment and management of this water is complicated due to the spatio-temporal variation of disturbance (aridity, rainfall intensity, length of dry season...). Therefore, understanding rainfall behavior would at least help to plan interventions to manage this resource and protect ecosystems that depend on it. Time-series analysis has become one of the major tools in hydrology. It is used for building mathematical models to detect trends and shifts in hydrologic records and to forecast hydrologic events. In this paper we present a case study of IFRAN region, which is situated in the Middle Atlas Mountains in Morocco. This study deals with modeling and forecasting rainfall time series using monthly rainfall data for the period 1970-2005. To determine the seasonal properties of this series we used first the Box-Jenkins methodology to build ARIMA model, and we expended the analysis with the Hylleberg-Engle-Granger-Yoo (HEGY) tests. The results of time series modeling showed the presence of significant deterministic seasonal pattern and no seasonal unit roots. This means that the series is stationary in all frequencies. The model can be used to predict rainfall in IFRAN and near sites; this prediction is not without interest in so far as any information about these random variables could provide a contribution to the researches made in domain for fighting against climate change. It doesn't give solutions to eradicate the precipitation variability phenomenon, but just to adapt to it.

Assessing water resource system vulnerability to unprecedented hydrological drought using copulas to characterize drought duration and deficit

PubMed Central

Pflug, Georg; Hall, Jim W.; Hochrainer‐Stigler, Stefan

2015-01-01

Abstract Global climate models suggest an increase in evapotranspiration, changing storm tracks, and moisture delivery in many parts of the world, which are likely to cause more prolonged and severe drought, yet the weakness of climate models in modeling persistence of hydroclimatic variables and the uncertainties associated with regional climate projections mean that impact assessments based on climate model output may underestimate the risk of multiyear droughts. In this paper, we propose a vulnerability‐based approach to test water resource system response to drought. We generate a large number of synthetic streamflow series with different drought durations and deficits and use them as input to a water resource system model. Marginal distributions of the streamflow for each month are generated by bootstrapping the historical data, while the joint probability distributions of consecutive months are constructed using a copula‐based method. Droughts with longer durations and larger deficits than the observed record are generated by perturbing the copula parameter and by adopting an importance sampling strategy for low flows. In this way, potential climate‐induced changes in monthly hydrological persistence are factored into the vulnerability analysis. The method is applied to the London water system (England) to investigate under which drought conditions severe water use restrictions would need to be imposed. Results indicate that the water system is vulnerable to drought conditions outside the range of historical events. The vulnerability assessment results were coupled with climate model information to compare alternative water management options with respect to their vulnerability to increasingly long and severe drought. PMID:27609995

Evaluating the Value of High Spatial Resolution in National Capacity Expansion Models using ReEDS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Krishnan, Venkat; Cole, Wesley

2016-11-14

Power sector capacity expansion models (CEMs) have a broad range of spatial resolutions. This paper uses the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model, a long-term national scale electric sector CEM, to evaluate the value of high spatial resolution for CEMs. ReEDS models the United States with 134 load balancing areas (BAs) and captures the variability in existing generation parameters, future technology costs, performance, and resource availability using very high spatial resolution data, especially for wind and solar modeled at 356 resource regions. In this paper we perform planning studies at three different spatial resolutions--native resolution (134 BAs), state-level, and NERCmore » region level--and evaluate how results change under different levels of spatial aggregation in terms of renewable capacity deployment and location, associated transmission builds, and system costs. The results are used to ascertain the value of high geographically resolved models in terms of their impact on relative competitiveness among renewable energy resources.« less

Land Use, Land Conservation, and Wind Energy Development Outcomes in New England

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weimar, William Cameron

This dissertation provides three independent research inquiries. The first examines how inter-governmental policy, site-specific, and social factors lead to the success, prolonged delay, or failure of inland wind power projects in New England. The three case studies examined include the 48 megawatt Glebe Mountain Wind Farm proposal in southern Vermont, the 30 megawatt Hoosac Wind Farm in western Massachusetts, and the 24 megawatt Lempster Wind Farm in southern New Hampshire. To ascertain why the project outcomes varied, 45 semi-structured interviews were conducted with a range of stakeholders, including wind development firms, utility companies, state regulatory agencies, regional planning commissions, town officials, land conservation organizations, and opposition groups. The second study establishes a comprehensive set of thirty-seven explanatory variables to determine the amount of suitable land and the corresponding electricity generation potential within the prime wind resource areas of Western Massachusetts. The explanatory variables are incorporated into Boolean GIS suitability models which represent the two divergent positions towards wind power development in Massachusetts, and a third, balanced model. The third study determines that exurban residential development is not the only land use factor that reduces wind power development potential in Western Massachusetts. A set of Boolean GIS models for 1985 and 2009 find the onset of conservation easements on private lands having the largest impact. During this 25 year period a combination of land use conversion and land conservation has reduced the access to prime wind resource areas by 18% (11,601 hectares), an equivalent loss of 5,800--8,700 GWh/year of zero carbon electricity generation. The six main findings from this research are: (1) Visual aesthetics remain the main factor of opposition to specific projects; (2) The Not-in-my Backyard debate for wind power remains unsettled; (3) Widespread support exists for regional land use energy plans; (4) The wind resources of Western Massachusetts can significantly contribute to the state's current renewable portfolio standard while balancing conservation and renewable energy development objectives; However, (5) a combination of exurban residential development and conservation easements significantly reduces wind power development potential over time; and (6) a need exists to legally define wind as a publicly beneficial resource.

An Efficient Biometric-Based Algorithm Using Heart Rate Variability for Securing Body Sensor Networks

PubMed Central

Pirbhulal, Sandeep; Zhang, Heye; Mukhopadhyay, Subhas Chandra; Li, Chunyue; Wang, Yumei; Li, Guanglin; Wu, Wanqing; Zhang, Yuan-Ting

2015-01-01

Body Sensor Network (BSN) is a network of several associated sensor nodes on, inside or around the human body to monitor vital signals, such as, Electroencephalogram (EEG), Photoplethysmography (PPG), Electrocardiogram (ECG), etc. Each sensor node in BSN delivers major information; therefore, it is very significant to provide data confidentiality and security. All existing approaches to secure BSN are based on complex cryptographic key generation procedures, which not only demands high resource utilization and computation time, but also consumes large amount of energy, power and memory during data transmission. However, it is indispensable to put forward energy efficient and computationally less complex authentication technique for BSN. In this paper, a novel biometric-based algorithm is proposed, which utilizes Heart Rate Variability (HRV) for simple key generation process to secure BSN. Our proposed algorithm is compared with three data authentication techniques, namely Physiological Signal based Key Agreement (PSKA), Data Encryption Standard (DES) and Rivest Shamir Adleman (RSA). Simulation is performed in Matlab and results suggest that proposed algorithm is quite efficient in terms of transmission time utilization, average remaining energy and total power consumption. PMID:26131666

An Efficient Biometric-Based Algorithm Using Heart Rate Variability for Securing Body Sensor Networks.

PubMed

Pirbhulal, Sandeep; Zhang, Heye; Mukhopadhyay, Subhas Chandra; Li, Chunyue; Wang, Yumei; Li, Guanglin; Wu, Wanqing; Zhang, Yuan-Ting

2015-06-26

Body Sensor Network (BSN) is a network of several associated sensor nodes on, inside or around the human body to monitor vital signals, such as, Electroencephalogram (EEG), Photoplethysmography (PPG), Electrocardiogram (ECG), etc. Each sensor node in BSN delivers major information; therefore, it is very significant to provide data confidentiality and security. All existing approaches to secure BSN are based on complex cryptographic key generation procedures, which not only demands high resource utilization and computation time, but also consumes large amount of energy, power and memory during data transmission. However, it is indispensable to put forward energy efficient and computationally less complex authentication technique for BSN. In this paper, a novel biometric-based algorithm is proposed, which utilizes Heart Rate Variability (HRV) for simple key generation process to secure BSN. Our proposed algorithm is compared with three data authentication techniques, namely Physiological Signal based Key Agreement (PSKA), Data Encryption Standard (DES) and Rivest Shamir Adleman (RSA). Simulation is performed in Matlab and results suggest that proposed algorithm is quite efficient in terms of transmission time utilization, average remaining energy and total power consumption.

The Application of Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis to the Ioland Water Treatment Plant in Lusaka, Zambia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kucharski, John; Tkach, Mark; Olszewski, Jennifer; Chaudhry, Rabia; Mendoza, Guillermo

2016-04-01

This presentation demonstrates the application of Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis (CRIDA) at Zambia's principal water treatment facility, The Iolanda Water Treatment Plant. The water treatment plant is prone to unacceptable failures during periods of low hydropower production at the Kafue Gorge Dam Hydroelectric Power Plant. The case study explores approaches of increasing the water treatment plant's ability to deliver acceptable levels of service under the range of current and potential future climate states. The objective of the study is to investigate alternative investments to build system resilience that might have been informed by the CRIDA process, and to evaluate the extra resource requirements by a bilateral donor agency to implement the CRIDA process. The case study begins with an assessment of the water treatment plant's vulnerability to climate change. It does so by following general principals described in "Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resource Planning and Project Design: the Decision Tree Framework". By utilizing relatively simple bootstrapping methods a range of possible future climate states is generated while avoiding the use of more complex and costly downscaling methodologies; that are beyond the budget and technical capacity of many teams. The resulting climate vulnerabilities and uncertainty in the climate states that produce them are analyzed as part of a "Level of Concern" analysis. CRIDA principals are then applied to this Level of Concern analysis in order to arrive at a set of actionable water management decisions. The principal goals of water resource management is to transform variable, uncertain hydrology into dependable services (e.g. water supply, flood risk reduction, ecosystem benefits, hydropower production, etc…). Traditional approaches to climate adaptation require the generation of predicted future climate states but do little guide decision makers how this information should impact decision making. In this context it is not surprising that the increased hydrologic variability and uncertainty produced by many climate risk analyses bedevil water resource decision making. The Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis (CRIDA) approach builds on work found in "Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resource Planning and Project Design: the Decision Tree Framework" which provide guidance of vulnerability assessments. It guides practitioners through a "Level of Concern" analysis where climate vulnerabilities are analyzed to produce actionable alternatives and decisions.

Response of River Discharge to Changing Climate Over the Past Millennium in the Upper Mackenzie Basin: Implications for Water Resource Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolfe, B. B.; Hall, R. I.; Edwards, T. W.; Jarvis, S. R.; Sinnatamby, R. N.; Yi, Y.; Johnston, J. W.

2009-05-01

Runoff generated from high elevations is the primary source of freshwater for western North America, yet this critical resource is managed on the basis of short instrumental records that encompass an insufficient range of climatic conditions. Like other streams that drain this part of the continent and flow across the northern Great Plains, where seasonal and extended intervals of water deficit are a natural element of the landscape, the Peace and Athabasca rivers provide water that is crucial for societal needs. Climate variability and rapidly increasing industrial development are, however, raising concerns over the future availability of water resources for continued economic growth in these watersheds and to maintain the integrity of aquatic ecosystems, including the Peace-Athabasca Delta (PAD). This is particularly acute for the Athabasca River because the Alberta oil sands industry remains dependent on its water for bitumen extraction. Here we report the effects of climate change over the past 1000 years on river discharge in the upper Mackenzie River system based on paleoenvironmental information from the PAD and Lake Athabasca. The delta landscape responds to hydroclimatic changes with marked variability, capturing systematic changes in ice-jam flood frequency and perched basin water balance. Lake Athabasca level appears to directly monitor overall water availability with the highest levels occurring in concert with maximum glacier extent during the Little Ice Age, and the lowest during the 11th century prior to medieval glacier expansion. Recent climate-driven hydrological change appears to be on a trajectory to even lower levels as high-elevation snow and glacier meltwater contributions both continue to decline. The temporal perspective offered by these paleohydrological reconstructions indicates that climatic changes over the past millennium have led to characteristic responses in the quantity and seasonality of streamflow generated from the hydrographic apex of North America. For water resource managers, a key feature that emerges from these results is that the hydrograph of the 21st century may be evolving towards conditions unprecedented over the past 1000 years, extending beyond the 11th century when reduced glacier meltwater contributions were partly compensated by abundant snowmelt runoff. Continuing reduction in both peak and total discharge clearly underscores the need for stringent allocation of freshwater resources in these watersheds.

High-amplitude fluctuations and alternative dynamical states of midges in Lake Myvatn.

PubMed

Ives, Anthony R; Einarsson, Arni; Jansen, Vincent A A; Gardarsson, Arnthor

2008-03-06

Complex dynamics are often shown by simple ecological models and have been clearly demonstrated in laboratory and natural systems. Yet many classes of theoretically possible dynamics are still poorly documented in nature. Here we study long-term time-series data of a midge, Tanytarsus gracilentus (Diptera: Chironomidae), in Lake Myvatn, Iceland. The midge undergoes density fluctuations of almost six orders of magnitude. Rather than regular cycles, however, these fluctuations have irregular periods of 4-7 years, indicating complex dynamics. We fit three consumer-resource models capable of qualitatively distinct dynamics to the data. Of these, the best-fitting model shows alternative dynamical states in the absence of environmental variability; depending on the initial midge densities, the model shows either fluctuations around a fixed point or high-amplitude cycles. This explains the observed complex population dynamics: high-amplitude but irregular fluctuations occur because stochastic variability causes the dynamics to switch between domains of attraction to the alternative states. In the model, the amplitude of fluctuations depends strongly on minute resource subsidies into the midge habitat. These resource subsidies may be sensitive to human-caused changes in the hydrology of the lake, with human impacts such as dredging leading to higher-amplitude fluctuations. Tanytarsus gracilentus is a key component of the Myvatn ecosystem, representing two-thirds of the secondary productivity of the lake and providing vital food resources to fish and to breeding bird populations. Therefore the high-amplitude, irregular fluctuations in midge densities generated by alternative dynamical states dominate much of the ecology of the lake.

Distributed modelling of water resources in the Lower Jordan River Basin - from present day variability to suitability for new water sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gunkel, Anne; Lange, Jens

2010-05-01

The Middle East is characterized by a high temporal and spatial variability of rainfall. As a result, water resources are not reliable and severe drought events are frequent, worsening the natural water scarcity. Single high magnitude events may dominate the water balance of entire seasons - a fact that is poorly represented in the assessments of available water resources that are normally based on long term averages. Therefore, a distributed hydrological model with a high temporal and spatial resolution is applied to the Lower Jordan River basin (LJRB). The focus is hereby to capture the variability of rainfall and to investigate how this signal is amplified in the hydrological cycle in this arid and semi arid environment. Rainfall variability is addressed through a volume scanning rainfall radar providing precipitation data with a resolution of 5 minutes for entire seasons that serves as input to a conceptual hydrological model. The raw radar data recorded by a C-Band system was pre-corrected by a multiple regression approach prior to regionalization to the LJRB, ground truthing with rainfall station data and conditional merging. Despite certain uncertainties, the data documents the accentuated rainfall variability in the entire LJRB. In order to include the full range of present rainfall variability, one average and two extreme seasons (wet and dry) are studied. Hydrological modelling is undertaken with a new modelling tool created by coupling two hydrological models, TRAIN and ZIN, complementing each other in respect to the addressed processes and water fluxes. The resulting modelling tool enables conceptual modelling of the processes relevant for semi-arid / arid environments with a high temporal and spatial resolution. The model is applied to the large scale LJRB (16,000 km²) in order to simulate all components of the water balance for three rainy seasons representing the present climate variability. Under given conditions of low data availability, the results give a basin wide view on the availability of surface water resources without human intervention with a high resolution in time (5 min) and space (up to 250 x 250 m²). The scarcity of water resources in many areas within the region is illustrated and detailed maps of the water balance components reveal spatial pattern of water availability characterizing the different potentials of regions or sub basins for water management options. Moreover, comparing different climate conditions provides valuable information for water management, including insights into the relation between green and blue water. For instance, runoff generation and percolation react stronger to changes in precipitation than evapotranspiration and the changes in runoff and percolation are considerably higher than the differences in rainfall between the three years. This amplification of rainfall variability by the hydrological cycle is significant for water management. Based on the results for current conditions, the impact of different scenarios and management options is analyzed, e.g. the effect of land use changes or the suitability of different regions for rainwater harvesting, one of the urgently needed new water sources.

Genetic variability in krill.

PubMed

Valentine, J W; Ayala, F J

1976-02-01

We have estimated genetic variability by gel electrophoresis in three species of krill, genus Euphausia (Arthropoda: Crustacea). Genetic variability is low where trophic resources are most seasonal, and high where trophic resources are most stable. Simlar trends have been found in benthic marine invertebrates. The observed trends of genetic variability do not correlate with trends in the stability of physical environment parameters.

Measurement resources for dissemination and implementation research in health.

PubMed

Rabin, Borsika A; Lewis, Cara C; Norton, Wynne E; Neta, Gila; Chambers, David; Tobin, Jonathan N; Brownson, Ross C; Glasgow, Russell E

2016-03-22

A 2-day consensus working meeting, hosted by the United States National Institutes of Health and the Veterans Administration, focused on issues related to dissemination and implementation (D&I) research in measurement and reporting. Meeting participants included 23 researchers, practitioners, and decision makers from the USA and Canada who concluded that the field would greatly benefit from measurement resources to enhance the ease, harmonization, and rigor of D&I evaluation efforts. This paper describes the findings from an environmental scan and literature review of resources for D&I measures. We identified a total of 17 resources, including four web-based repositories and 12 static reviews or tools that attempted to synthesize and evaluate existing measures for D&I research. Thirteen resources came from the health discipline, and 11 were populated from database reviews. Ten focused on quantitative measures, and all were generated as a resource for researchers. Fourteen were organized according to an established D&I theory or framework, with the number of constructs and measures ranging from 1 to more than 450. Measure metadata was quite variable with only six providing information on the psychometric properties of measures. Additional guidance on the development and use of measures are needed. A number of approaches, resources, and critical areas for future work are discussed. Researchers and stakeholders are encouraged to take advantage of a number of funding mechanisms supporting this type of work.

Adaptation of water resource systems to an uncertain future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walsh, C. L.; Blenkinsop, S.; Fowler, H. J.; Burton, A.; Dawson, R. J.; Glenis, V.; Manning, L. J.; Kilsby, C. G.

2015-09-01

Globally, water resources management faces significant challenges from changing climate and growing populations. At local scales, the information provided by climate models is insufficient to support the water sector in making future adaptation decisions. Furthermore, projections of change in local water resources are wrought with uncertainties surrounding natural variability, future greenhouse gas emissions, model structure, population growth and water consumption habits. To analyse the magnitude of these uncertainties, and their implications for local scale water resource planning, we present a top-down approach for testing climate change adaptation options using probabilistic climate scenarios and demand projections. An integrated modelling framework is developed which implements a new, gridded spatial weather generator, coupled with a rainfall-runoff model and water resource management simulation model. We use this to provide projections of the number of days, and associated uncertainty that will require implementation of demand saving measures such as hose pipe bans and drought orders. Results, which are demonstrated for the Thames basin, UK, indicate existing water supplies are sensitive to a changing climate and an increasing population, and that the frequency of severe demand saving measures are projected to increase. Considering both climate projections and population growth the median number of drought order occurrences may increase five-fold. The effectiveness of a range of demand management and supply options have been tested and shown to provide significant benefits in terms of reducing the number of demand saving days. We found that increased supply arising from various adaptation options may compensate for increasingly variable flows; however, without reductions in overall demand for water resources such options will be insufficient on their own to adapt to uncertainties in the projected changes in climate and population. For example, a 30 % reduction in overall demand by 2050 has a greater impact on reducing the frequency of drought orders than any of the individual or combinations of supply options; hence a portfolio of measures are required.

Characteristics of acute care hospitals with diversity plans and translation services.

PubMed

Moseley, Charles B; Shen, Jay J; Ginn, Gregory O

2011-01-01

Hospitals provide diversity activities for a number of reasons. The authors examined community demand, resource availability, managed care, institutional pressure, and external orientation related variables that were associated with acute care hospital diversity plans and translation services. The authors used multiple logistic regression to analyze the data for 478 hospitals in the 2006 National Inpatient Sample (NIS) dataset that had available data on the racial and ethnic status of their discharges. We also used 2004 and 2006 American Hospital Association (AHA) data to measure the two dependent diversity variables and the other independent variables. We found that resource, managed care, and external orientation variables were associated with having a diversity plan and that resource, managed care, institutional, and external orientation variables were associated with providing translation services. The authors concluded that more evidence for diversity's impact, additional resources, and more institutional pressure may be needed to motivate more hospitals to provide diversity planning and translation services.

Integrating Solar PV in Utility System Operations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mills, A.; Botterud, A.; Wu, J.

2013-10-31

This study develops a systematic framework for estimating the increase in operating costs due to uncertainty and variability in renewable resources, uses the framework to quantify the integration costs associated with sub-hourly solar power variability and uncertainty, and shows how changes in system operations may affect these costs. Toward this end, we present a statistical method for estimating the required balancing reserves to maintain system reliability along with a model for commitment and dispatch of the portfolio of thermal and renewable resources at different stages of system operations. We estimate the costs of sub-hourly solar variability, short-term forecast errors, andmore » day-ahead (DA) forecast errors as the difference in production costs between a case with “realistic” PV (i.e., subhourly solar variability and uncertainty are fully included in the modeling) and a case with “well behaved” PV (i.e., PV is assumed to have no sub-hourly variability and can be perfectly forecasted). In addition, we highlight current practices that allow utilities to compensate for the issues encountered at the sub-hourly time frame with increased levels of PV penetration. In this analysis we use the analytical framework to simulate utility operations with increasing deployment of PV in a case study of Arizona Public Service Company (APS), a utility in the southwestern United States. In our analysis, we focus on three processes that are important in understanding the management of PV variability and uncertainty in power system operations. First, we represent the decisions made the day before the operating day through a DA commitment model that relies on imperfect DA forecasts of load and wind as well as PV generation. Second, we represent the decisions made by schedulers in the operating day through hour-ahead (HA) scheduling. Peaking units can be committed or decommitted in the HA schedules and online units can be redispatched using forecasts that are improved relative to DA forecasts, but still imperfect. Finally, we represent decisions within the operating hour by schedulers and transmission system operators as real-time (RT) balancing. We simulate the DA and HA scheduling processes with a detailed unit-commitment (UC) and economic dispatch (ED) optimization model. This model creates a least-cost dispatch and commitment plan for the conventional generating units using forecasts and reserve requirements as inputs. We consider only the generation units and load of the utility in this analysis; we do not consider opportunities to trade power with neighboring utilities. We also do not consider provision of reserves from renewables or from demand-side options. We estimate dynamic reserve requirements in order to meet reliability requirements in the RT operations, considering the uncertainty and variability in load, solar PV, and wind resources. Balancing reserve requirements are based on the 2.5th and 97.5th percentile of 1-min deviations from the HA schedule in a previous year. We then simulate RT deployment of balancing reserves using a separate minute-by-minute simulation of deviations from the HA schedules in the operating year. In the simulations we assume that balancing reserves can be fully deployed in 10 min. The minute-by-minute deviations account for HA forecasting errors and the actual variability of the load, wind, and solar generation. Using these minute-by-minute deviations and deployment of balancing reserves, we evaluate the impact of PV on system reliability through the calculation of the standard reliability metric called Control Performance Standard 2 (CPS2). Broadly speaking, the CPS2 score measures the percentage of 10-min periods in which a balancing area is able to balance supply and demand within a specific threshold. Compliance with the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) reliability standards requires that the CPS2 score must exceed 90% (i.e., the balancing area must maintain adequate balance for 90% of the 10-min periods). The combination of representing DA forecast errors in the DA commitments, using 1-min PV data to simulate RT balancing, and estimates of reliability performance through the CPS2 metric, all factors that are important to operating systems with increasing amounts of PV, makes this study unique in its scope.« less

Improved exploration of fishery resources through the integration of remotely sensed merged sea level anomaly, chlorophyll concentration, and sea surface temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Priya, R. Kanmani Shanmuga; Balaguru, B.; Ramakrishnan, S.

2013-10-01

The capabilities of evolving satellite remote sensing technology, combined with conventional data collection techniques, provide a powerful tool for efficient and cost effective management of living marine resources. Fishes are the valuable living marine resources producing food, profit and pleasure to the human community. Variations in oceanic condition play a role in natural fluctuations of fish stocks. The Satellite Altimeter derived Merged Sea Level Anomaly(MSLA) results in the better understanding of ocean variability and mesosclae oceanography and provides good possibility to reveal the zones of high dynamic activity. This study comprised the synergistic analysis of signatures of SEAWIFS derived chlorophyll concentration, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration-Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer(NOAA-AVHRR) derived Sea Surface Temperature and the monthly Merged Sea Level Anomaly data derived from Topex/Poseidon, Jason-1 and ERS-1 Altimeters for the past 7 years during the period from 1998 to 2004. The overlapping Chlorophyll, SST and MSLA were suggested for delineating Potential Fishing Zones (PFZs). The Chlorophyll and SST data set were found to have influenced by short term persistence from days to week while MSLA signatures of respective features persisted for longer duration. Hence, the study used Altimeter derived MSLA as an index for long term variability detection of fish catches along with Chlorophyll and SST images and the maps showing PFZs of the study area were generated. The real time Fishing statistics of the same duration were procured from FSI Mumbai. The catch contours were generated with respect to peak spectra of chlorophyll variation and trough spectra of MSLA and SST variation. The vice- a- versa patterns were observed in the poor catch contours. The Catch Per Unit Effort (CPUE) for each fishing trail was calculated to normalize the fish catch. Based on the statistical analysis the actual CPUEs were classified at each probable MSLA depth zones and plotted on the same images.

Infection before pregnancy affects immunity and response to social challenge in the next generation.

PubMed

Curno, Olivia; Reader, Tom; McElligott, Alan G; Behnke, Jerzy M; Barnard, Chris J

2011-12-12

Natural selection should favour parents that are able to adjust their offspring's life-history strategy and resource allocation in response to changing environmental and social conditions. Pathogens impose particularly strong and variable selective pressure on host life histories, and parental genes will benefit if offspring are appropriately primed to meet the immunological challenges ahead. Here, we investigated transgenerational immune priming by examining reproductive resource allocation by female mice in response to direct infection with Babesia microti prior to pregnancy. Female mice previously infected with B. microti gained more weight over pregnancy, and spent more time nursing their offspring. These offspring generated an accelerated response to B. microti as adults, clearing the infection sooner and losing less weight as a result of infection. They also showed an altered hormonal response to novel social environments, decreasing instead of increasing testosterone production upon social housing. These results suggest that a dominance-resistance trade-off can be mediated by cues from the previous generation. We suggest that strategic maternal investment in response to an infection leads to increased disease resistance in the following generation. Offspring from previously infected mothers downregulate investment in acquisition of social dominance, which in natural systems would reduce access to mating opportunities. In doing so, however, they avoid the reduced disease resistance associated with increased testosterone and dominance. The benefits of accelerated clearance of infection and reduced weight loss during infection may outweigh costs associated with reduced social dominance in an environment where the risk of disease is high.

Genetic variability in krill.

PubMed Central

Valentine, J W; Ayala, F J

1976-01-01

We have estimated genetic variability by gel electrophoresis in three species of krill, genus Euphausia (Arthropoda: Crustacea). Genetic variability is low where trophic resources are most seasonal, and high where trophic resources are most stable. Simlar trends have been found in benthic marine invertebrates. The observed trends of genetic variability do not correlate with trends in the stability of physical environment parameters. Images PMID:1061166

Landslide Hazard from Coupled Inherent and Dynamic Probabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strauch, R. L.; Istanbulluoglu, E.; Nudurupati, S. S.

2015-12-01

Landslide hazard research has typically been conducted independently from hydroclimate research. We sought to unify these two lines of research to provide regional scale landslide hazard information for risk assessments and resource management decision-making. Our approach couples an empirical inherent landslide probability, based on a frequency ratio analysis, with a numerical dynamic probability, generated by combining subsurface water recharge and surface runoff from the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macro-scale land surface hydrologic model with a finer resolution probabilistic slope stability model. Landslide hazard mapping is advanced by combining static and dynamic models of stability into a probabilistic measure of geohazard prediction in both space and time. This work will aid resource management decision-making in current and future landscape and climatic conditions. The approach is applied as a case study in North Cascade National Park Complex in northern Washington State.

Wind-Driven Ecological Flow Regimes Downstream from Hydropower Dams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kern, J.; Characklis, G. W.

2012-12-01

Conventional hydropower can be turned on and off quicker and less expensively than thermal generation (coal, nuclear, or natural gas). These advantages enable hydropower utilities to respond to rapid fluctuations in energy supply and demand. More recently, a growing renewable energy sector has underlined the need for flexible generation capacity that can complement intermittent renewable resources such as wind power. While wind power entails lower variable costs than other types of generation, incorporating it into electric power systems can be problematic. Due to variable and unpredictable wind speeds, wind power is difficult to schedule and must be used when available. As a result, integrating large amounts of wind power into the grid may result in atypical, swiftly changing demand patterns for other forms of generation, placing a premium on sources that can be rapidly ramped up and down. Moreover, uncertainty in wind power forecasts will stipulate increased levels of 'reserve' generation capacity that can respond quickly if real-time wind supply is less than expected. These changes could create new hourly price dynamics for energy and reserves, altering the short-term financial signals that hydroelectric dam operators use to schedule water releases. Traditionally, hourly stream flow patterns below hydropower dams have corresponded in a very predictable manner to electricity demand, whose primary factors are weather (hourly temperature) and economic activity (workday hours). Wind power integration has the potential to yield more variable, less predictable flows at hydro dams, flows that at times could resemble reciprocal wind patterns. An existing body of research explores the impacts of standard, demand-following hydroelectric dams on downstream ecological flows; but weighing the benefits of increased reliance on wind power against further impacts to ecological flows may be a novel challenge for the environmental community. As a preliminary step in meeting this challenge, the following study was designed to investigate the potential for wind power integration to alter riparian flow regimes below hydroelectric dams. A hydrological model of a three-dam cascade in the Roanoke River basin (Virginia, USA) is interfaced with a simulated electricity market (i.e. a unit commitment problem) representing the Dominion Zone of PJM Interconnection. Incorporating forecasts of electricity demand, hydro capacity and wind availability, a mixed-integer optimization program minimizes the system cost of meeting hourly demand and reserve requirements by means of a diverse generation portfolio (e.g. nuclear, fossil, hydro, and biomass). A secondary 'balancing' energy market is executed if real-time wind generation is less than the day-ahead forecast, calling upon reserved generation resources to meet the supply shortfall. Hydropower release schedules are determined across a range of wind development scenarios (varying wind's fraction of total installed generating capacity, as well as its geographical source region). Flow regimes for each wind development scenario are compared against both historical and simulated flows under current operations (negligible wind power), as well as simulated natural flows (dam removal), in terms of ecologically relevant flow metrics. Results quantify the ability of wind power development to alter within-week stream flows downstream from hydropower dams.

The Emerging Interdependence of the Electric Power Grid & Information and Communication Technology

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Taft, Jeffrey D.; Becker-Dippmann, Angela S.

2015-08-01

This paper examines the implications of emerging interdependencies between the electric power grid and Information and Communication Technology (ICT). Over the past two decades, electricity and ICT infrastructure have become increasingly interdependent, driven by a combination of factors including advances in sensor, network and software technologies and progress in their deployment, the need to provide increasing levels of wide-area situational awareness regarding grid conditions, and the promise of enhanced operational efficiencies. Grid operators’ ability to utilize new and closer-to-real-time data generated by sensors throughout the system is providing early returns, particularly with respect to management of the transmission system formore » purposes of reliability, coordination, congestion management, and integration of variable electricity resources such as wind generation.« less

Belowground adaptation and resilience to drought conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sivandran, G.; Gentine, P.; Bras, R. L.

2012-12-01

The most expansive drought in 50 years stretched across the Midwest in 2012. In light of predicted increases in the variability of climate, this type of event can no longer be considered extreme. Understanding the resilience of both managed and natural vegetation and how these systems may adapt to this new climate reality is critical in predicting changes to the global carbon, energy and water balance. An eco-hydrological model (tRIBS+VEGGIE) was employed to model the sensitivity of vegetation to varying drought intensities. Point scale simulations were carried out using two vertical root distribution schemes: (i) Static - a temporally invariant root distribution; and (ii) Dynamic - a temporally variable root carbon allocation scheme. A stochastic climate generator was used to create a series of synthetic climate realizations varying the drought characteristics - in particular the interstorm period. This change in the seasonal distribution of precipitation impacts the spatial (soil layers) and temporal distribution of soil moisture which directly impacts the water resource niche for vegetation. This change in resource niche is reflected in a shift in the optimal static rooting strategy further highlighting the need for the incorporation of a dynamic scheme that responds to local conditions.

Connecting Groundwater, Crop Price, and Crop Production Variability in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pollack, A.; Lobell, D. B.; Jain, M.

2015-12-01

Farmers in India rely on groundwater resources for irrigation and production of staple crops that provide over half of the calories consumed domestically each year. While this has been a productive strategy in increasing agricultural production and maintaining high yields, groundwater resources are depleting at a quicker rate than natural resources can replace. This issue gains relevance as climate variability concurrently adds to yearly fluctuations in farmer demand for irrigation each year, which can create high risk for farmers that depend on consistent yields, but do not have access to dwindling water resources. This study investigates variability in groundwater levels from 2005 to 2013 in relation to crop prices and production by analyzing district-level datasets made available through India's government. Through this analysis, we show the impact of groundwater variability on price variability, crop yield, and production during these years. By examining this nine-year timescale, we extend our analysis to forthcoming years to demonstrate the increasing importance of groundwater resources in irrigation, and suggest strategies to reduce the impact of groundwater shortages on crop production and prices.

30 CFR 1206.352 - How do I calculate the royalty due on geothermal resources used for commercial production or...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... geothermal resources used for commercial production or generation of electricity? 1206.352 Section 1206.352... resources used for commercial production or generation of electricity? (a) If you sold geothermal resources produced from a Class I, II, or III lease at arm's length that the purchaser uses to generate electricity...

30 CFR 206.352 - How do I calculate the royalty due on geothermal resources used for commercial production or...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... geothermal resources used for commercial production or generation of electricity? 206.352 Section 206.352... resources used for commercial production or generation of electricity? (a) If you sold geothermal resources produced from a Class I, II, or III lease at arm's length that the purchaser uses to generate electricity...

30 CFR 1206.352 - How do I calculate the royalty due on geothermal resources used for commercial production or...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... geothermal resources used for commercial production or generation of electricity? 1206.352 Section 1206.352... resources used for commercial production or generation of electricity? (a) If you sold geothermal resources produced from a Class I, II, or III lease at arm's length that the purchaser uses to generate electricity...

30 CFR 1206.352 - How do I calculate the royalty due on geothermal resources used for commercial production or...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... geothermal resources used for commercial production or generation of electricity? 1206.352 Section 1206.352... resources used for commercial production or generation of electricity? (a) If you sold geothermal resources produced from a Class I, II, or III lease at arm's length that the purchaser uses to generate electricity...

Towards the automated analysis and database development of defibrillator data from cardiac arrest.

PubMed

Eftestøl, Trygve; Sherman, Lawrence D

2014-01-01

During resuscitation of cardiac arrest victims a variety of information in electronic format is recorded as part of the documentation of the patient care contact and in order to be provided for case review for quality improvement. Such review requires considerable effort and resources. There is also the problem of interobserver effects. We show that it is possible to efficiently analyze resuscitation episodes automatically using a minimal set of the available information. A minimal set of variables is defined which describe therapeutic events (compression sequences and defibrillations) and corresponding patient response events (annotated rhythm transitions). From this a state sequence representation of the resuscitation episode is constructed and an algorithm is developed for reasoning with this representation and extract review variables automatically. As a case study, the method is applied to the data abstraction process used in the King County EMS. The automatically generated variables are compared to the original ones with accuracies ≥ 90% for 18 variables and ≥ 85% for the remaining four variables. It is possible to use the information present in the CPR process data recorded by the AED along with rhythm and chest compression annotations to automate the episode review.

Evaluating shrub-associated spatial patterns of soil properties in a shrub-steppe ecosystem using multiple-variable geostatistics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Halvorson, J.J.; Smith, J.L.; Bolton, H. Jr.

1995-09-01

Geostatistics are often calculated for a single variable at a time, even though many natural phenomena are functions of several variables. The objective of this work was to demonstrate a nonparametric approach for assessing the spatial characteristics of multiple-variable phenomena. Specifically, we analyzed the spatial characteristics of resource islands in the soil under big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentala Nutt.), a dominant shrub in the intermountain western USA. For our example, we defined resource islands as a function of six soil variables representing concentrations of soil resources, populations of microorganisms, and soil microbial physiological variables. By collectively evaluating the indicator transformations ofmore » these individual variables, we created a new data set, termed a multiple-variable indicator transform or MVIT. Alternate MVITs were obtained by varying the selection criteria. Each MVIT was analyzed with variography to characterize spatial continuity, and with indicator kriging to predict the combined probability of their occurrence at unsampled locations in the landscape. Simple graphical analysis and variography demonstrated spatial dependence for all individual soil variables. Maps derived from ordinary kriging of MVITs suggested that the combined probabilities for encountering zones of above-median resources were greatest near big sagebrush. 51 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab.« less

Language Shift in the United States and Foreign-Born Older Mexican Heritage Individuals: Co-ethnic Context for Language Resistance

PubMed Central

Siordia, Carlos; Díaz, María E.

2014-01-01

In this study, we investigate individual-level language shift in a population of Mexican origin Latinos/as aged 65 and up. By using data from the Hispanic Established Populations for the Epidemiologic Study of the Elderly, we investigate their English language use as the dependent variable in a hierarchical linear model. The microlevel independent continuous variable is their level of contact with “Anglos”; the macrolevel continuous independent variable is the percentage of Mexicans in tract of residence. After accounting for their generational status, other microlevel social and health covariates, and tract-level attributes, we found a direct relationship between contact with Anglos and a “shift” toward more English language use, where as co-ethnic concentration increases, the influence of contact with Anglos decreases. We frame this article with a discussion on language shifting, and explain how co-ethnic concentration may provide the resources for engaging in a language resistance. PMID:25104874

Immigration, stress, and depressive symptoms in a Mexican-American community.

PubMed

Golding, J M; Burnam, M A

1990-03-01

This study assessed levels of depressive symptomatology in a household probability sample of Mexico-born (N = 706) and U.S.-born (N = 538) Mexican Americans. We hypothesized that immigration status differences in acculturation, strain, social resources, and social conflict, as well as differences in the associations of these variables with depression, would account for differences in depression between U.S.-born and Mexico-born respondents. U.S.-born Mexican Americans had higher depression scores than those born in Mexico. When cultural and social psychological variables were controlled in a multiple regression analysis, the immigrant status difference persisted. Tests of interaction terms suggested greater vulnerability to the effects of low acculturation and low educational attainment among the U.S.-born relative to those born in Mexico; however, the immigrant status difference persisted after controlling for these interactions. Unmeasured variables such as selective migration of persons with better coping skills, selective return of depressed immigrants, or generational differences in social comparison processes may account for the immigration status difference.

Modeling climate change impacts on groundwater resources using transient stochastic climatic scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goderniaux, Pascal; BrouyèRe, Serge; Blenkinsop, Stephen; Burton, Aidan; Fowler, Hayley J.; Orban, Philippe; Dassargues, Alain

2011-12-01

Several studies have highlighted the potential negative impact of climate change on groundwater reserves, but additional work is required to help water managers plan for future changes. In particular, existing studies provide projections for a stationary climate representative of the end of the century, although information is demanded for the near future. Such time-slice experiments fail to account for the transient nature of climatic changes over the century. Moreover, uncertainty linked to natural climate variability is not explicitly considered in previous studies. In this study we substantially improve upon the state-of-the-art by using a sophisticated transient weather generator in combination with an integrated surface-subsurface hydrological model (Geer basin, Belgium) developed with the finite element modeling software "HydroGeoSphere." This version of the weather generator enables the stochastic generation of large numbers of equiprobable climatic time series, representing transient climate change, and used to assess impacts in a probabilistic way. For the Geer basin, 30 equiprobable climate change scenarios from 2010 to 2085 have been generated for each of six different regional climate models (RCMs). Results show that although the 95% confidence intervals calculated around projected groundwater levels remain large, the climate change signal becomes stronger than that of natural climate variability by 2085. Additionally, the weather generator's ability to simulate transient climate change enabled the assessment of the likely time scale and associated uncertainty of a specific impact, providing managers with additional information when planning further investment. This methodology constitutes a real improvement in the field of groundwater projections under climate change conditions.

Critical Evaluation of Internet Resources for Teaching Trend and Variability in Bivariate Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Forster, Pat

2007-01-01

A search on the Internet for resources for teaching statistics yields multiple sites with data sets, projects, worksheets, applets, and software. Often these are made available without information on how they might benefit learning. This paper addresses potential benefits from resources that target trend and variability relationships in bivariate…

Capturing subregional variability in regional-scale climate change vulnerability assessments of natural resources

Treesearch

Polly C. Buotte; David L. Peterson; Kevin S. McKelvey; Jeffrey A. Hicke

2016-01-01

Natural resource vulnerability to climate change can depend on the climatology and ecological conditions at a particular site. Here we present a conceptual framework for incorporating spatial variability in natural resource vulnerability to climate change in a regional-scale assessment. The framework was implemented in the first regional-scale vulnerability...

The use of an integrated variable fuzzy sets in water resources management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qiu, Qingtai; Liu, Jia; Li, Chuanzhe; Yu, Xinzhe; Wang, Yang

2018-06-01

Based on the evaluation of the present situation of water resources and the development of water conservancy projects and social economy, optimal allocation of regional water resources presents an increasing need in the water resources management. Meanwhile it is also the most effective way to promote the harmonic relationship between human and water. In view of the own limitations of the traditional evaluations of which always choose a single index model using in optimal allocation of regional water resources, on the basis of the theory of variable fuzzy sets (VFS) and system dynamics (SD), an integrated variable fuzzy sets model (IVFS) is proposed to address dynamically complex problems in regional water resources management in this paper. The model is applied to evaluate the level of the optimal allocation of regional water resources of Zoucheng in China. Results show that the level of allocation schemes of water resources ranging from 2.5 to 3.5, generally showing a trend of lower level. To achieve optimal regional management of water resources, this model conveys a certain degree of accessing water resources management, which prominently improve the authentic assessment of water resources management by using the eigenvector of level H.

Interactions among invasive plants: Lessons from Hawai‘i

USGS Publications Warehouse

D'Antonio, Carla M.; Ostertag, Rebecca; Cordell, Susan; Yelenik, Stephanie G.

2017-01-01

Most ecosystems have multiple-plant invaders rather than single-plant invaders, yet ecological studies and management actions focus largely on single invader species. There is a need for general principles regarding invader interactions across varying environmental conditions, so that secondary invasions can be anticipated and managers can allocate resources toward pretreatment or postremoval actions. By reviewing removal experiments conducted in three Hawaiian ecosystems (a dry tropical forest, a seasonally dry mesic forest, and a lowland wet forest), we evaluate the roles environmental harshness, priority effects, productivity potential, and species interactions have in influencing secondary invasions, defined here as invasions that are influenced either positively (facilitation) or negatively (inhibition/priority effects) by existing invaders. We generate a conceptual model with a surprise index to describe whether long-term plant invader composition and dominance is predictable or stochastic after a system perturbation such as a removal experiment. Under extremely low resource availability, the surprise index is low, whereas under intermediate-level resource environments, invader dominance is more stochastic and the surprise index is high. At high resource levels, the surprise index is intermediate: Invaders are likely abundant in the environment but their response to a perturbation is more predictable than at intermediate resource levels. We suggest further testing across environmental gradients to determine key variables that dictate the predictability of postremoval invader composition.

Analysis of the solar/wind resources in Southern Spain for optimal sizing of hybrid solar-wind power generation systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quesada-Ruiz, S.; Pozo-Vazquez, D.; Santos-Alamillos, F. J.; Lara-Fanego, V.; Ruiz-Arias, J. A.; Tovar-Pescador, J.

2010-09-01

A drawback common to the solar and wind energy systems is their unpredictable nature and dependence on weather and climate on a wide range of time scales. In addition, the variation of the energy output may not match with the time distribution of the load demand. This can partially be solved by the use of batteries for energy storage in stand-alone systems. The problem caused by the variable nature of the solar and wind resources can be partially overcome by the use of energy systems that uses both renewable resources in a combined manner, that is, hybrid wind-solar systems. Since both resources can show complementary characteristics in certain location, the independent use of solar or wind systems results in considerable over sizing of the batteries system compared to the use of hybrid solar-wind systems. Nevertheless, to the day, there is no single recognized method for properly sizing these hybrid wind-solar systems. In this work, we present a method for sizing wind-solar hybrid systems in southern Spain. The method is based on the analysis of the wind and solar resources on daily scale, particularly, its temporal complementary characteristics. The method aims to minimize the size of the energy storage systems, trying to provide the most reliable supply.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Carson, K.S.

The presence of overpopulation or unsustainable population growth may place pressure on the food and water supplies of countries in sensitive areas of the world. Severe air or water pollution may place additional pressure on these resources. These pressures may generate both internal and international conflict in these areas as nations struggle to provide for their citizens. Such conflicts may result in United States intervention, either unilaterally, or through the United Nations. Therefore, it is in the interests of the United States to identify potential areas of conflict in order to properly train and allocate forces. The purpose of thismore » research is to forecast the probability of conflict in a nation as a function of it s environmental conditions. Probit, logit and ordered probit models are employed to forecast the probability of a given level of conflict. Data from 95 countries are used to estimate the models. Probability forecasts are generated for these 95 nations. Out-of sample forecasts are generated for an additional 22 nations. These probabilities are then used to rank nations from highest probability of conflict to lowest. The results indicate that the dependence of a nation`s economy on agriculture, the rate of deforestation, and the population density are important variables in forecasting the probability and level of conflict. These results indicate that environmental variables do play a role in generating or exacerbating conflict. It is unclear that the United States military has any direct role in mitigating the environmental conditions that may generate conflict. A more important role for the military is to aid in data gathering to generate better forecasts so that the troops are adequntely prepared when conflicts arises.« less

Generation capacity expansion planning in deregulated electricity markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, Deepak

With increasing demand of electric power in the context of deregulated electricity markets, a good strategic planning for the growth of the power system is critical for our tomorrow. There is a need to build new resources in the form of generation plants and transmission lines while considering the effects of these new resources on power system operations, market economics and the long-term dynamics of the economy. In deregulation, the exercise of generation planning has undergone a paradigm shift. The first stage of generation planning is now undertaken by the individual investors. These investors see investments in generation capacity as an increasing business opportunity because of the increasing market prices. Therefore, the main objective of such a planning exercise, carried out by individual investors, is typically that of long-term profit maximization. This thesis presents some modeling frameworks for generation capacity expansion planning applicable to independent investor firms in the context of power industry deregulation. These modeling frameworks include various technical and financing issues within the process of power system planning. The proposed modeling frameworks consider the long-term decision making process of investor firms, the discrete nature of generation capacity addition and incorporates transmission network modeling. Studies have been carried out to examine the impact of the optimal investment plans on transmission network loadings in the long-run by integrating the generation capacity expansion planning framework within a modified IEEE 30-bus transmission system network. The work assesses the importance of arriving at an optimal IRR at which the firm's profit maximization objective attains an extremum value. The mathematical model is further improved to incorporate binary variables while considering discrete unit sizes, and subsequently to include the detailed transmission network representation. The proposed models are novel in the sense that the planning horizon is split into plan sub-periods so as to minimize the overall risks associated with long-term plan models, particularly in the context of deregulation.

Resource theory of non-Gaussian operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhuang, Quntao; Shor, Peter W.; Shapiro, Jeffrey H.

2018-05-01

Non-Gaussian states and operations are crucial for various continuous-variable quantum information processing tasks. To quantitatively understand non-Gaussianity beyond states, we establish a resource theory for non-Gaussian operations. In our framework, we consider Gaussian operations as free operations, and non-Gaussian operations as resources. We define entanglement-assisted non-Gaussianity generating power and show that it is a monotone that is nonincreasing under the set of free superoperations, i.e., concatenation and tensoring with Gaussian channels. For conditional unitary maps, this monotone can be analytically calculated. As examples, we show that the non-Gaussianity of ideal photon-number subtraction and photon-number addition equal the non-Gaussianity of the single-photon Fock state. Based on our non-Gaussianity monotone, we divide non-Gaussian operations into two classes: (i) the finite non-Gaussianity class, e.g., photon-number subtraction, photon-number addition, and all Gaussian-dilatable non-Gaussian channels; and (ii) the diverging non-Gaussianity class, e.g., the binary phase-shift channel and the Kerr nonlinearity. This classification also implies that not all non-Gaussian channels are exactly Gaussian dilatable. Our resource theory enables a quantitative characterization and a first classification of non-Gaussian operations, paving the way towards the full understanding of non-Gaussianity.

The effects of positive cognitions on the relationship between alienation and resourcefulness in nursing students in Egypt.

PubMed

Bekhet, Abir K; ElGuenidi, Mervat; Zauszniewski, Jaclene A

2011-01-01

Alienation is a subjective state, a feeling of being a stranger, as if one were not one's normal self. It is also a sense of homelessness; a feeling of uneasiness or discomfort, which signifies the person's exclusion from social or cultural participation. Alienation can adversely affect healthy functioning of nursing students. Nursing students are the adolescents of today and the nurses of tomorrow who will deal with human behavior, and their psychological well-being will be important in managing their clients' conditions. Healthy nursing students are likely to become healthy nurses who can then model and promote healthy lifestyles for their patients. This study looked at whether the effects of alienation on adolescents' resourcefulness are influenced by positive cognitions. Zauszniewski's theory of resourcefulness, which is based on the conceptualization of two forms of resourcefulness: personal (self-help) and social (help-seeking) resourcefulness, served as the theoretical framework for the study. A descriptive, correlational, cross-sectional design was used to examine hypothesized relationships among the study variables in a convenience sample of 170 first-year nursing students aged 17 to 20 years. Results showed that positive cognitions had a moderating and a partial mediating effect on the relationship between alienation and resourcefulness. It is imperative for nurse educators to generate interventions to enhance positive cognitions among nursing students.

On the spatial decorrelation of stochastic solar resource variability at long timescales

DOE PAGES

Perez, Marc J. R.; Fthenakis, Vasilis M.

2015-05-16

Understanding the spatial and temporal characteristics of solar resource variability is important because it helps inform the discussion surrounding the merits of geographic dispersion and subsequent electrical interconnection of photovoltaics as part of a portfolio of future solutions for coping with this variability. The unpredictable resource variability arising from the stochastic nature of meteorological phenomena (from the passage of clouds to the movement of weather systems) is of most concern for achieving high PV penetration because unlike the passage of seasons or the shift from day to night, the uncertainty makes planning a challenge. A suitable proxy for unpredictable solarmore » resource variability at any given location is the series of variations in the clearness index from one time period to the next because the clearness index is largely independent of the predictable influence of solar geometry. At timescales shorter than one day, the correlation between these variations in clearness index at pairs of distinct geographic locations decreases with spatial extent and with timescale. As the aggregate variability across N decorrelated locations decreases as 1/√N, identifying the distance required to achieve this decorrelation is critical to quantifying the expected reduction in variability from geographic dispersion.« less

Heterogeneous Stock Rat: A Unique Animal Model for Mapping Genes Influencing Bone Fragility

PubMed Central

Alam, Imranul; Koller, Daniel L.; Sun, Qiwei; Roeder, Ryan K.; Cañete, Toni; Blázquez, Gloria; López-Aumatell, Regina; Martínez-Membrives, Esther; Vicens-Costa, Elia; Mont, Carme; Díaz, Sira; Tobeña, Adolf; Fernández-Teruel, Alberto; Whitley, Adam; Strid, Pernilla; Diez, Margarita; Johannesson, Martina; Flint, Jonathan; Econs, Michael J.; Turner, Charles H.; Foroud, Tatiana

2011-01-01

Previously, we demonstrated that skeletal mass, structure and biomechanical properties vary considerably among 11 different inbred rat strains. Subsequently, we performed quantitative trait loci (QTL) analysis in 4 inbred rat strains (F344, LEW, COP and DA) for different bone phenotypes and identified several candidate genes influencing various bone traits. The standard approach to narrowing QTL intervals down to a few candidate genes typically employs the generation of congenic lines, which is time consuming and often not successful. A potential alternative approach is to use a highly genetically informative animal model resource capable of delivering very high-resolution gene mapping such as Heterogeneous stock (HS) rat. HS rat was derived from eight inbred progenitors: ACI/N, BN/SsN, BUF/N, F344/N, M520/N, MR/N, WKY/N and WN/N. The genetic recombination pattern generated across 50 generations in these rats has been shown to deliver ultra-high even gene-level resolution for complex genetic studies. The purpose of this study is to investigate the usefulness of the HS rat model for fine mapping and identification of genes underlying bone fragility phenotypes. We compared bone geometry, density and strength phenotypes at multiple skeletal sites in HS rats with those obtained from 5 of the 8 progenitor inbred strains. In addition, we estimated the heritability for different bone phenotypes in these rats and employed principal component analysis to explore relationships among bone phenotypes in the HS rats. Our study demonstrates that significant variability exists for different skeletal phenotypes in HS rats compared with their inbred progenitors. In addition, we estimated high heritability for several bone phenotypes and biologically interpretable factors explaining significant overall variability, suggesting that the HS rat model could be a unique genetic resource for rapid and efficient discovery of the genetic determinants of bone fragility. PMID:21334473

Heterogeneous stock rat: a unique animal model for mapping genes influencing bone fragility.

PubMed

Alam, Imranul; Koller, Daniel L; Sun, Qiwei; Roeder, Ryan K; Cañete, Toni; Blázquez, Gloria; López-Aumatell, Regina; Martínez-Membrives, Esther; Vicens-Costa, Elia; Mont, Carme; Díaz, Sira; Tobeña, Adolf; Fernández-Teruel, Alberto; Whitley, Adam; Strid, Pernilla; Diez, Margarita; Johannesson, Martina; Flint, Jonathan; Econs, Michael J; Turner, Charles H; Foroud, Tatiana

2011-05-01

Previously, we demonstrated that skeletal mass, structure and biomechanical properties vary considerably among 11 different inbred rat strains. Subsequently, we performed quantitative trait loci (QTL) analysis in four inbred rat strains (F344, LEW, COP and DA) for different bone phenotypes and identified several candidate genes influencing various bone traits. The standard approach to narrowing QTL intervals down to a few candidate genes typically employs the generation of congenic lines, which is time consuming and often not successful. A potential alternative approach is to use a highly genetically informative animal model resource capable of delivering very high resolution gene mapping such as Heterogeneous stock (HS) rat. HS rat was derived from eight inbred progenitors: ACI/N, BN/SsN, BUF/N, F344/N, M520/N, MR/N, WKY/N and WN/N. The genetic recombination pattern generated across 50 generations in these rats has been shown to deliver ultra-high even gene-level resolution for complex genetic studies. The purpose of this study is to investigate the usefulness of the HS rat model for fine mapping and identification of genes underlying bone fragility phenotypes. We compared bone geometry, density and strength phenotypes at multiple skeletal sites in HS rats with those obtained from five of the eight progenitor inbred strains. In addition, we estimated the heritability for different bone phenotypes in these rats and employed principal component analysis to explore relationships among bone phenotypes in the HS rats. Our study demonstrates that significant variability exists for different skeletal phenotypes in HS rats compared with their inbred progenitors. In addition, we estimated high heritability for several bone phenotypes and biologically interpretable factors explaining significant overall variability, suggesting that the HS rat model could be a unique genetic resource for rapid and efficient discovery of the genetic determinants of bone fragility. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

EarthCube Data Discovery Hub: Enhancing, Curating and Finding Data across Multiple Geoscience Data Sources.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaslavsky, I.; Valentine, D.; Richard, S. M.; Gupta, A.; Meier, O.; Peucker-Ehrenbrink, B.; Hudman, G.; Stocks, K. I.; Hsu, L.; Whitenack, T.; Grethe, J. S.; Ozyurt, I. B.

2017-12-01

EarthCube Data Discovery Hub (DDH) is an EarthCube Building Block project using technologies developed in CINERGI (Community Inventory of EarthCube Resources for Geoscience Interoperability) to enable geoscience users to explore a growing portfolio of EarthCube-created and other geoscience-related resources. Over 1 million metadata records are available for discovery through the project portal (cinergi.sdsc.edu). These records are retrieved from data facilities, including federal, state and academic sources, or contributed by geoscientists through workshops, surveys, or other channels. CINERGI metadata augmentation pipeline components 1) provide semantic enhancement based on a large ontology of geoscience terms, using text analytics to generate keywords with references to ontology classes, 2) add spatial extents based on place names found in the metadata record, and 3) add organization identifiers to the metadata. The records are indexed and can be searched via a web portal and standard search APIs. The added metadata content improves discoverability and interoperability of the registered resources. Specifically, the addition of ontology-anchored keywords enables faceted browsing and lets users navigate to datasets related by variables measured, equipment used, science domain, processes described, geospatial features studied, and other dataset characteristics that are generated by the pipeline. DDH also lets data curators access and edit the automatically generated metadata records using the CINERGI metadata editor, accept or reject the enhanced metadata content, and consider it in updating their metadata descriptions. We consider several complex data discovery workflows, in environmental seismology (quantifying sediment and water fluxes using seismic data), marine biology (determining available temperature, location, weather and bleaching characteristics of coral reefs related to measurements in a given coral reef survey), and river geochemistry (discovering observations relevant to geochemical measurements outside the tidal zone, given specific discharge conditions).

Emission & Generation Resource Integrated Database (eGRID)

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The Emissions & Generation Resource Integrated Database (eGRID) is an integrated source of data on environmental characteristics of electric power generation. Twelve federal databases are represented by eGRID, which provides air emission and resource mix information for thousands of power plants and generating companies. eGRID allows direct comparison of the environmental attributes of electricity from different plants, companies, States, or regions of the power grid.

Capturing subregional variability in regional-scale climate change vulnerability assessments of natural resources.

PubMed

Buotte, Polly C; Peterson, David L; McKelvey, Kevin S; Hicke, Jeffrey A

2016-03-15

Natural resource vulnerability to climate change can depend on the climatology and ecological conditions at a particular site. Here we present a conceptual framework for incorporating spatial variability in natural resource vulnerability to climate change in a regional-scale assessment. The framework was implemented in the first regional-scale vulnerability assessment conducted by the US Forest Service. During this assessment, five subregional workshops were held to capture variability in vulnerability and to develop adaptation tactics. At each workshop, participants answered a questionnaire to: 1) identify species, resources, or other information missing from the regional assessment, and 2) describe subregional vulnerability to climate change. Workshop participants divided into six resource groups; here we focus on wildlife resources. Participants identified information missing from the regional assessment and multiple instances of subregional variability in climate change vulnerability. We provide recommendations for improving the process of capturing subregional variability in a regional vulnerability assessment. We propose a revised conceptual framework structured around pathways of climate influence, each with separate rankings for exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. These revisions allow for a quantitative ranking of species, pathways, exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity across subregions. Rankings can be used to direct the development and implementation of future regional research and monitoring programs. The revised conceptual framework is equally applicable as a stand-alone model for assessing climate change vulnerability and as a nested model within a regional assessment for capturing subregional variability in vulnerability. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Italian regional health system structure and expected cancer survival.

PubMed

Vercelli, Marina; Lillini, Roberto; Quaglia, Alberto; Capocaccia, Riccardo

2014-01-01

Few studies deal with the association of socioeconomic and health system resource variables with cancer survival at the Italian regional level, where the greatest number of decisions about social and health policies and resource allocations are taken. The present study aimed to describe the causal relationships between socioeconomic and health system resource factors and regional cancer survival and to compute the expected cancer survival at provincial, regional and area levels. Age-standardized relative survival at 5 years from diagnosis of cases incident in 1995-1998 and followed up to 2004 were derived by gender for 11 sites from the Italian Association of Cancer Registries data bank. The socioeconomic and health system resource variables, describing at a regional level the macro-economy, demography, labor market, and health resources for 1995-2005, came from the Health for All database. A principal components factor analysis was applied to the socioeconomic and health system resource variables. For every site, linear regression models were computed considering the relative survival at 5 years as a dependent variable and the principal components factor analysis factors as independent variables. The factors described the socioeconomic and health-related features of the regional systems and were causally related to the characteristics of the patient taken in charge. The models built by the factors allowed computation of the expected relative survival at 5 years with very good concordance with those observed at regional, macro-regional and national levels. In the regions without any cancer registry, survival was coherent with that of neighboring regions with similar socioeconomic and health system resources characteristics. The models highlighted the causal correlations between socioeconomic and health system resources and cancer survival, suggesting that they could be good evaluation tools for the efficiency of the resources allocation and use.

Continuous-variable quantum teleportation with non-Gaussian resources

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dell'Anno, F.; Dipartimento di Fisica, Universita degli Studi di Salerno, Via S. Allende, I-84081 Baronissi; CNR-INFM Coherentia, Napoli, Italy and CNISM Unita di Salerno and INFN Sezione di Napoli, Gruppo Collegato di Salerno, Baronissi

2007-08-15

We investigate continuous variable quantum teleportation using non-Gaussian states of the radiation field as entangled resources. We compare the performance of different classes of degaussified resources, including two-mode photon-added and two-mode photon-subtracted squeezed states. We then introduce a class of two-mode squeezed Bell-like states with one-parameter dependence for optimization. These states interpolate between and include as subcases different classes of degaussified resources. We show that optimized squeezed Bell-like resources yield a remarkable improvement in the fidelity of teleportation both for coherent and nonclassical input states. The investigation reveals that the optimal non-Gaussian resources for continuous variable teleportation are those thatmore » most closely realize the simultaneous maximization of the content of entanglement, the degree of affinity with the two-mode squeezed vacuum, and the, suitably measured, amount of non-Gaussianity.« less

Flood quantile estimation at ungauged sites by Bayesian networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mediero, L.; Santillán, D.; Garrote, L.

2012-04-01

Estimating flood quantiles at a site for which no observed measurements are available is essential for water resources planning and management. Ungauged sites have no observations about the magnitude of floods, but some site and basin characteristics are known. The most common technique used is the multiple regression analysis, which relates physical and climatic basin characteristic to flood quantiles. Regression equations are fitted from flood frequency data and basin characteristics at gauged sites. Regression equations are a rigid technique that assumes linear relationships between variables and cannot take the measurement errors into account. In addition, the prediction intervals are estimated in a very simplistic way from the variance of the residuals in the estimated model. Bayesian networks are a probabilistic computational structure taken from the field of Artificial Intelligence, which have been widely and successfully applied to many scientific fields like medicine and informatics, but application to the field of hydrology is recent. Bayesian networks infer the joint probability distribution of several related variables from observations through nodes, which represent random variables, and links, which represent causal dependencies between them. A Bayesian network is more flexible than regression equations, as they capture non-linear relationships between variables. In addition, the probabilistic nature of Bayesian networks allows taking the different sources of estimation uncertainty into account, as they give a probability distribution as result. A homogeneous region in the Tagus Basin was selected as case study. A regression equation was fitted taking the basin area, the annual maximum 24-hour rainfall for a given recurrence interval and the mean height as explanatory variables. Flood quantiles at ungauged sites were estimated by Bayesian networks. Bayesian networks need to be learnt from a huge enough data set. As observational data are reduced, a stochastic generator of synthetic data was developed. Synthetic basin characteristics were randomised, keeping the statistical properties of observed physical and climatic variables in the homogeneous region. The synthetic flood quantiles were stochastically generated taking the regression equation as basis. The learnt Bayesian network was validated by the reliability diagram, the Brier Score and the ROC diagram, which are common measures used in the validation of probabilistic forecasts. Summarising, the flood quantile estimations through Bayesian networks supply information about the prediction uncertainty as a probability distribution function of discharges is given as result. Therefore, the Bayesian network model has application as a decision support for water resources and planning management.

`Been There Done That': Disentangling Option Value Effects from User Heterogeneity When Valuing Natural Resources with a Use Component

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lyssenko, Nikita; Martínez-Espiñeira, Roberto

2012-11-01

Endogeneity bias arises in contingent valuation studies when the error term in the willingness to pay (WTP) equation is correlated with explanatory variables because observable and unobservable characteristics of the respondents affect both their WTP and the value of those variables. We correct for the endogeneity of variables that capture previous experience with the resource valued, humpback whales, and with the geographic area of study. We consider several endogenous behavioral variables. Therefore, we apply a multivariate Probit approach to jointly model them with WTP. In this case, correcting for endogeneity increases econometric efficiency and substantially corrects the bias affecting the estimated coefficients of the experience variables, by isolating the decreasing effect on option value caused by having already experienced the resource. Stark differences are unveiled between the marginal effects on WTP of previous experience of the resource in an alternative location versus experience in the location studied, Newfoundland and Labrador (Canada).

'Been there done that': disentangling option value effects from user heterogeneity when valuing natural resources with a use component.

PubMed

Lyssenko, Nikita; Martínez-Espiñeira, Roberto

2012-11-01

Endogeneity bias arises in contingent valuation studies when the error term in the willingness to pay (WTP) equation is correlated with explanatory variables because observable and unobservable characteristics of the respondents affect both their WTP and the value of those variables. We correct for the endogeneity of variables that capture previous experience with the resource valued, humpback whales, and with the geographic area of study. We consider several endogenous behavioral variables. Therefore, we apply a multivariate Probit approach to jointly model them with WTP. In this case, correcting for endogeneity increases econometric efficiency and substantially corrects the bias affecting the estimated coefficients of the experience variables, by isolating the decreasing effect on option value caused by having already experienced the resource. Stark differences are unveiled between the marginal effects on WTP of previous experience of the resource in an alternative location versus experience in the location studied, Newfoundland and Labrador (Canada).

"More bang for the buck": exploring optimal approaches for guideline implementation through interviews with international developers.

PubMed

Gagliardi, Anna R

2012-11-15

Population based studies show that guidelines are underused. Surveys of international guideline developers found that many do not implement their guidelines. The purpose of this research was to interview guideline developers about implementation approaches and resources. Semi-structured telephone interviews were conducted with representatives of guideline development agencies identified in the National Guideline Clearinghouse and sampled by country, type of developer, and guideline clinical indication. Participants were asked to comment on the benefits and resource implications of three approaches for guideline implementation that varied by responsibility: developers, intermediaries, or users. Thirty individuals from seven countries were interviewed, representing government (n = 12) and professional (n = 18) organizations that produced guidelines for a variety of clinical indications. Organizations with an implementation mandate featured widely inconsistent funding and staffing models, variable approaches for choosing promotional strategies, and an array of dissemination activities. When asked to choose a preferred approach, most participants selected the option of including information within guidelines that would help users to implement them. Given variable mandate and resources for implementation, it was considered the most feasible approach, and therefore most likely to have impact due to potentially broad use. While implementation approaches and strategies need not be standardized across organizations, the findings may be used by health care policy makers and managers, and guideline developers to generate strategic and operational plans that optimize implementation capacity. Further research is needed to examine how to optimize implementation capacity by guideline developers, intermediaries and users.

Using dynamic population simulations to extend resource selection analyses and prioritize habitats for conservation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Heinrichs, Julie; Aldridge, Cameron L.; O'Donnell, Michael; Schumaker, Nathan

2017-01-01

Prioritizing habitats for conservation is a challenging task, particularly for species with fluctuating populations and seasonally dynamic habitat needs. Although the use of resource selection models to identify and prioritize habitat for conservation is increasingly common, their ability to characterize important long-term habitats for dynamic populations are variable. To examine how habitats might be prioritized differently if resource selection was directly and dynamically linked with population fluctuations and movement limitations among seasonal habitats, we constructed a spatially explicit individual-based model for a dramatically fluctuating population requiring temporally varying resources. Using greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in Wyoming as a case study, we used resource selection function maps to guide seasonal movement and habitat selection, but emergent population dynamics and simulated movement limitations modified long-term habitat occupancy. We compared priority habitats in RSF maps to long-term simulated habitat use. We examined the circumstances under which the explicit consideration of movement limitations, in combination with population fluctuations and trends, are likely to alter predictions of important habitats. In doing so, we assessed the future occupancy of protected areas under alternative population and habitat conditions. Habitat prioritizations based on resource selection models alone predicted high use in isolated parcels of habitat and in areas with low connectivity among seasonal habitats. In contrast, results based on more biologically-informed simulations emphasized central and connected areas near high-density populations, sometimes predicted to be low selection value. Dynamic models of habitat use can provide additional biological realism that can extend, and in some cases, contradict habitat use predictions generated from short-term or static resource selection analyses. The explicit inclusion of population dynamics and movement propensities via spatial simulation modeling frameworks may provide an informative means of predicting long-term habitat use, particularly for fluctuating populations with complex seasonal habitat needs. Importantly, our results indicate the possible need to consider habitat selection models as a starting point rather than the common end point for refining and prioritizing habitats for protection for cyclic and highly variable populations.

An examination of variables distinguishing accredited from nonaccredited recreation, park resources and leisure services programs

Treesearch

Jerry L. Ricciardo; Eric L. Longsdorf

2003-01-01

Accreditation by the NRPA/AALR Council on Accreditation assures that recreation, park resources and leisure services programs meet the minimum standards for training professional leisure services providers in the U. S. The purpose of this research is to identify variables that distinguish NRPA/AALR accredited from nonaccredited recreation, park resources and leisure...

Risk-based water resources planning: Incorporating probabilistic nonstationary climate uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borgomeo, Edoardo; Hall, Jim W.; Fung, Fai; Watts, Glenn; Colquhoun, Keith; Lambert, Chris

2014-08-01

We present a risk-based approach for incorporating nonstationary probabilistic climate projections into long-term water resources planning. The proposed methodology uses nonstationary synthetic time series of future climates obtained via a stochastic weather generator based on the UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) to construct a probability distribution of the frequency of water shortages in the future. The UKCP09 projections extend well beyond the range of current hydrological variability, providing the basis for testing the robustness of water resources management plans to future climate-related uncertainties. The nonstationary nature of the projections combined with the stochastic simulation approach allows for extensive sampling of climatic variability conditioned on climate model outputs. The probability of exceeding planned frequencies of water shortages of varying severity (defined as Levels of Service for the water supply utility company) is used as a risk metric for water resources planning. Different sources of uncertainty, including demand-side uncertainties, are considered simultaneously and their impact on the risk metric is evaluated. Supply-side and demand-side management strategies can be compared based on how cost-effective they are at reducing risks to acceptable levels. A case study based on a water supply system in London (UK) is presented to illustrate the methodology. Results indicate an increase in the probability of exceeding the planned Levels of Service across the planning horizon. Under a 1% per annum population growth scenario, the probability of exceeding the planned Levels of Service is as high as 0.5 by 2040. The case study also illustrates how a combination of supply and demand management options may be required to reduce the risk of water shortages.

[Analyzing the impact of decisions in the scope of long term care by fuzzy cognitive maps, Spain].

PubMed

Gutiérrez Moya, Ester; González Camacho, M Carmen; Salmerón Silvera, Jose Luis

2012-12-01

System for Autonomy and Care for Dependency (Spanish acronym SAAD) was created to provide a framework for the protection of dependent people. The priority established by law on benefits in kind over cash benefits, together with the efficient management of public resources provided economic returns for the SAAD, such as employment generation. The variables that influence the implementation of the SAAD are extremely complex and dynamic, and there are multiple relationships between them. The aim of this paper is to analyze the problem of satisfying a growing demand for protection, at minimum cost, and reaps the economic returns using fuzzy logic (fuzzy cognitive map). This technique is designed as a tool for decision-making in this area, to analyze the evolution of causal variables to a state of equilibrium. To do this, we have developed 4 scenarios (E1: Ageing, E2: Ageing and benefits in kind, E3: Ageing and cash benefits, E4: Ageing and cash benefit for care in the family), to analyze the evolution of variables, especially public expenditure and employment. Among the main results are: ageing is critical for the increased spending in all scenarios, but only in E1 and E2 is generated employment, residential care is not altered, even in E2; Telecare increases in all scenarios, and the cash benefit for personal attendant increases in E1 and E2.

Scalable multi-objective control for large scale water resources systems under uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giuliani, Matteo; Quinn, Julianne; Herman, Jonathan; Castelletti, Andrea; Reed, Patrick

2016-04-01

The use of mathematical models to support the optimal management of environmental systems is rapidly expanding over the last years due to advances in scientific knowledge of the natural processes, efficiency of the optimization techniques, and availability of computational resources. However, undergoing changes in climate and society introduce additional challenges for controlling these systems, ultimately motivating the emergence of complex models to explore key causal relationships and dependencies on uncontrolled sources of variability. In this work, we contribute a novel implementation of the evolutionary multi-objective direct policy search (EMODPS) method for controlling environmental systems under uncertainty. The proposed approach combines direct policy search (DPS) with hierarchical parallelization of multi-objective evolutionary algorithms (MOEAs) and offers a threefold advantage: the DPS simulation-based optimization can be combined with any simulation model and does not add any constraint on modeled information, allowing the use of exogenous information in conditioning the decisions. Moreover, the combination of DPS and MOEAs prompts the generation or Pareto approximate set of solutions for up to 10 objectives, thus overcoming the decision biases produced by cognitive myopia, where narrow or restrictive definitions of optimality strongly limit the discovery of decision relevant alternatives. Finally, the use of large-scale MOEAs parallelization improves the ability of the designed solutions in handling the uncertainty due to severe natural variability. The proposed approach is demonstrated on a challenging water resources management problem represented by the optimal control of a network of four multipurpose water reservoirs in the Red River basin (Vietnam). As part of the medium-long term energy and food security national strategy, four large reservoirs have been constructed on the Red River tributaries, which are mainly operated for hydropower production, flood control, and water supply. Numerical results under historical as well as synthetically generated hydrologic conditions show that our approach is able to discover key system tradeoffs in the operations of the system. The ability of the algorithm to find near-optimal solutions increases with the number of islands in the adopted hierarchical parallelization scheme. In addition, although significant performance degradation is observed when the solutions designed over history are re-evaluated over synthetically generated inflows, we successfully reduced these vulnerabilities by identifying alternative solutions that are more robust to hydrologic uncertainties, while also addressing the tradeoffs across the Red River multi-sector services.

The energetic implications of curtailing versus storing wind- and solar-generated electricity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnhart, C. J.; Dale, M.; Brandt, A. R.; Benson, S. M.

2013-12-01

Rapid deployment of power generation technologies harnessing wind and solar resources continues to reduce the carbon intensity of the power grid. But as these technologies comprise a larger fraction of power supply, their variable, weather-dependent nature poses challenges to power grid operation. Today, during times of power oversupply or unfavorable market conditions, power grid operators curtail these resources. Rates of curtailment are expected to increase with increased renewable electricity production. That is unless technologies are implemented that can provide grid flexibility to balance power supply with power demand. Curtailment is an obvious forfeiture of energy and it decreases the profitability of electricity from curtailed generators. What are less obvious are the energetic costs for technologies that provide grid flexibility. We present a theoretical framework to calculate how storage affects the energy return on energy investment (EROI) ratios of wind and solar resources. Our methods identify conditions under which it is more energetically favorable to store energy than it is to simply curtail electricity production. Electrochemically based storage technologies result in much smaller EROI ratios than large-scale geologically based storage technologies like compressed air energy storage (CAES) and pumped hydroelectric storage (PHS). All storage technologies paired with solar photovoltaic (PV) generation yield EROI ratios that are greater than curtailment. Due to their low energy stored on electrical energy invested (ESOIe) ratios, conventional battery technologies reduce the EROI ratios of wind generation below curtailment EROI ratios. To yield a greater net energy return than curtailment, battery storage technologies paired with wind generation need an ESOIe>80. We identify improvements in cycle life as the most feasible way to increase battery ESOIe. Depending upon the battery's embodied energy requirement, an increase of cycle life to 10,000--18,000 (2-20 times present values) is required for pairing with wind (assuming liberal round-trip efficiency [90%] and liberal depth-of-discharge [80%] values). Reducing embodied energy costs, increasing efficiency and increasing depth of discharge will also further improve the energetic performance of batteries. While this paper focuses on only one benefit of energy storage, the value of not curtailing electricity generation during periods of excess production, similar analyses could be used to draw conclusions about other benefits as well.

Accounting for stimulus-specific variation in precision reveals a discrete capacity limit in visual working memory

PubMed Central

Pratte, Michael S.; Park, Young Eun; Rademaker, Rosanne L.; Tong, Frank

2016-01-01

If we view a visual scene that contains many objects, then momentarily close our eyes, some details persist while others seem to fade. Discrete models of visual working memory (VWM) assume that only a few items can be actively maintained in memory, beyond which pure guessing will emerge. Alternatively, continuous resource models assume that all items in a visual scene can be stored with some precision. Distinguishing between these competing models is challenging, however, as resource models that allow for stochastically variable precision (across items and trials) can produce error distributions that resemble random guessing behavior. Here, we evaluated the hypothesis that a major source of variability in VWM performance arises from systematic variation in precision across the stimuli themselves; such stimulus-specific variability can be incorporated into both discrete-capacity and variable-precision resource models. Participants viewed multiple oriented gratings, and then reported the orientation of a cued grating from memory. When modeling the overall distribution of VWM errors, we found that the variable-precision resource model outperformed the discrete model. However, VWM errors revealed a pronounced “oblique effect”, with larger errors for oblique than cardinal orientations. After this source of variability was incorporated into both models, we found that the discrete model provided a better account of VWM errors. Our results demonstrate that variable precision across the stimulus space can lead to an unwarranted advantage for resource models that assume stochastically variable precision. When these deterministic sources are adequately modeled, human working memory performance reveals evidence of a discrete capacity limit. PMID:28004957

Accounting for stimulus-specific variation in precision reveals a discrete capacity limit in visual working memory.

PubMed

Pratte, Michael S; Park, Young Eun; Rademaker, Rosanne L; Tong, Frank

2017-01-01

If we view a visual scene that contains many objects, then momentarily close our eyes, some details persist while others seem to fade. Discrete models of visual working memory (VWM) assume that only a few items can be actively maintained in memory, beyond which pure guessing will emerge. Alternatively, continuous resource models assume that all items in a visual scene can be stored with some precision. Distinguishing between these competing models is challenging, however, as resource models that allow for stochastically variable precision (across items and trials) can produce error distributions that resemble random guessing behavior. Here, we evaluated the hypothesis that a major source of variability in VWM performance arises from systematic variation in precision across the stimuli themselves; such stimulus-specific variability can be incorporated into both discrete-capacity and variable-precision resource models. Participants viewed multiple oriented gratings, and then reported the orientation of a cued grating from memory. When modeling the overall distribution of VWM errors, we found that the variable-precision resource model outperformed the discrete model. However, VWM errors revealed a pronounced "oblique effect," with larger errors for oblique than cardinal orientations. After this source of variability was incorporated into both models, we found that the discrete model provided a better account of VWM errors. Our results demonstrate that variable precision across the stimulus space can lead to an unwarranted advantage for resource models that assume stochastically variable precision. When these deterministic sources are adequately modeled, human working memory performance reveals evidence of a discrete capacity limit. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

How to Organize for Local Resource Generation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Backstrom, Tomas

2009-01-01

Purpose: The generation of resources is a central issue for the sustainability of companies. The purpose of this paper is to deal with two research questions: "Is decentralized generation of resources a possible way to reach sustainability in modern work life?" and "What prerequisites must be formed by organizations and managers to reach…

Assessment of Wind Resource in the Palk Strait using Different Methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gupta, T.; Khan, F.; Baidya Roy, S.; Miller, L.

2017-12-01

The Government of India has proposed a target of 60 GW in grid power from the wind by the year 2022. The Palk Strait is one of the potential offshore wind power generation sites in India. It is a 65-135 km wide and 135 km long channel lying between the south eastern tip of India and northern Sri Lanka. The complex terrain bounding the two sides of the strait leads to enhanced wind speed and reduced variability in the wind direction. Here, we compare 3 distinct methodologies for estimating the generation rates for a hypothetical offshore wind farm array located in the strait. The methodologies include: 1) traditional wind power density model that ignores the effect of turbine interactions on generation rates; 2) the PARK wake model; and 3) a high resolution weather model (WRF) with a wind turbine parameterization. Using the WRF model as our baseline, we find that the simple model overestimates generation by an order-of-magnitude, while the wake model underestimates generation rates by about 5%. The reason for these differences relates to the influence of wind turbines on the atmospheric flow, wherein, the WRF model is able to capture the effect of both the complex terrain and wind turbine atmospheric boundary layer interactions. Lastly, a model evaluation is conducted which shows that 10m wind speeds and directions from WRF are comparable with the satellite data. Hence, we conclude from the study that each of these methodologies may have merit, but should a wind farm is deployed in such a complex terrain, we expect the WRF method to give better estimates of wind resource assessment capturing the physical processes emerging due to the interactions between offshore wind farm and the surrounding terrain.

Citizen Science: Participatory Monitoring of Water Resources Management in Mustang District, Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Regmi, S.; Bhusal, J.; Gurung, P.; Ochoa-Tocachi, B. F.; Buytaert, W.

2016-12-01

Abstract The Mustang region of the Himalayas has unique geographical and climatic features. This region is characterized by a cold-arid climate with total annual precipitation of less than 300mm. Agriculture and livestock grazing lands are the major ecosystem services, which support directly the livelihoods of local populations yet, are strongly determined by low water availability. As a result, optimizing water resources management is paramount to support local development, but this is severely complicated by the lack of information about water availability. This problem is further aggravated by increasing pressure on the social, physical and climatic environments. In order to support the management of scarce water in irrigation and domestic uses, stream flow and precipitation monitoring networks were established using a participatory approach under the principle of citizen science. Data collection, and the following interpretation and application of the co-generated knowledge relies on local users, whereas the establishment of the system, knowledge co-generation, and development of application tools particularly is part of a collaboration of members of the general public with professional scientists. We show how the resulting data enable local users to quantify the water balance in the area and reduce the uncertainty associated to data-scarcity, which leads to the generation of useable information about water availability for irrigation, livestock grazing, and domestic demand. We contrast the current scenario of water use, under different conditions of natural variability and environmental change, with an optimized water management strategy generated and agreed with local users. This approach contributes to an optimal use of water, to an improvement in ecosystem services supporting to livelihood development and economic progress of local populations. Key words: ecosystem services, climate change, water balance, knowledge generation, irrigation

Variable Generation Power Forecasting as a Big Data Problem

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Haupt, Sue Ellen; Kosovic, Branko

To blend growing amounts of power from renewable resources into utility operations requires accurate forecasts. For both day ahead planning and real-time operations, the power from the wind and solar resources must be predicted based on real-time observations and a series of models that span the temporal and spatial scales of the problem, using the physical and dynamical knowledge as well as computational intelligence. Accurate prediction is a Big Data problem that requires disparate data, multiple models that are each applicable for a specific time frame, and application of computational intelligence techniques to successfully blend all of the model andmore » observational information in real-time and deliver it to the decision makers at utilities and grid operators. This paper describes an example system that has been used for utility applications and how it has been configured to meet utility needs while addressing the Big Data issues.« less

Variable Generation Power Forecasting as a Big Data Problem

DOE PAGES

Haupt, Sue Ellen; Kosovic, Branko

2016-10-10

To blend growing amounts of power from renewable resources into utility operations requires accurate forecasts. For both day ahead planning and real-time operations, the power from the wind and solar resources must be predicted based on real-time observations and a series of models that span the temporal and spatial scales of the problem, using the physical and dynamical knowledge as well as computational intelligence. Accurate prediction is a Big Data problem that requires disparate data, multiple models that are each applicable for a specific time frame, and application of computational intelligence techniques to successfully blend all of the model andmore » observational information in real-time and deliver it to the decision makers at utilities and grid operators. This paper describes an example system that has been used for utility applications and how it has been configured to meet utility needs while addressing the Big Data issues.« less

Social and cultural sustainability: criteria, indicators, verifier variables for measurement and maps for visualization to support planning.

PubMed

Axelsson, Robert; Angelstam, Per; Degerman, Erik; Teitelbaum, Sara; Andersson, Kjell; Elbakidze, Marine; Drotz, Marcus K

2013-03-01

Policies on economic use of natural resources require considerations to social and cultural values. In order to make those concrete in a planning context, this paper aims to interpret social and cultural criteria, identify indicators, match these with verifier variables and visualize them on maps. Indicators were selected from a review of scholarly work and natural resource policies, and then matched with verifier variables available for Sweden's 290 municipalities. Maps of the spatial distribution of four social and four cultural verifier variables were then produced. Consideration of social and cultural values in the studied natural resource use sectors was limited. The spatial distribution of the verifier variables exhibited a general divide between northwest and south Sweden, and regional rural and urban areas. We conclude that it is possible to identify indicators and match them with verifier variables to support inclusion of social and cultural values in planning.

Interannual variability of growth and reproduction in Bursera simaruba: the role of allometry and resource variability.

PubMed

Hulshof, Catherine M; Stegen, James C; Swenson, Nathan G; Enquist, Carolyn A F; Enquist, Brian J

2012-01-01

Plants are expected to differentially allocate resources to reproduction, growth, and survival in order to maximize overall fitness. Life history theory predicts that the allocation of resources to reproduction should occur at the expense of vegetative growth. Although it is known that both organism size and resource availability can influence life history traits, few studies have addressed how size dependencies of growth and reproduction and variation in resource supply jointly affect the coupling between growth and reproduction. In order to understand the relationship between growth and reproduction in the context of resource variability, we utilize a long-term observational data set consisting of 670 individual trees over a 10-year period within a local population of Bursera simaruba (L.) Sarg. We (1) quantify the functional form and variability in the growth-reproduction relationship at the population and individual-tree level and (2) develop a theoretical framework to understand the allometric dependence of growth and reproduction. Our findings suggest that the differential responses of allometric growth and reproduction to resource availability, both between years and between microsites, underlie the apparent relationship between growth and reproduction. Finally, we offer an alternative approach for quantifying the relationship between growth and reproduction that accounts for variation in allometries.

Design of Stand-Alone Hybrid Power Generation System at Brumbun Beach Tulungagung East Java

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahmat, A. N.; Hidayat, M. N.; Ronilaya, F.; Setiawan, A.

2018-04-01

Indonesian government insists to optimize the use of renewable energy resources in electricity generation. One of the efforts is launching Independent Energy Village plan. This program aims to fulfill the need of electricity for isolated or remote villages in Indonesia. In order to support the penetration of renewable energy resources in electricity generation, a hybrid power generation system is developed. The simulation in this research is based on the availability of renewable energy resources in Brumbun beach, Tulungagung, East Java. Initially, the electricity was supplied through stand-alone electricity generations which are installed at each house. Hence, the use of electricity between 5 p.m. – 9 p.m. requires high operational costs. Based on the problem above, this research is conducted to design a stand-alone hybrid electricity generation system, which may consist of diesel, wind, and photovoltaic. The design is done by using HOMER software to optimize the use of electricity from renewable resources and to reduce the operation of diesel generation. The combination of renewable energy resources in electricity generation resulted in NPC of 44.680, COE of 0,268, and CO2 emissions of 0,038 % much lower than the use of diesel generator only.

The role of density-dependent and -independent processes in spawning habitat selection by salmon in an Arctic riverscape.

PubMed

Huntsman, Brock M; Falke, Jeffrey A; Savereide, James W; Bennett, Katrina E

2017-01-01

Density-dependent (DD) and density-independent (DI) habitat selection is strongly linked to a species' evolutionary history. Determining the relative importance of each is necessary because declining populations are not always the result of altered DI mechanisms but can often be the result of DD via a reduced carrying capacity. We developed spatially and temporally explicit models throughout the Chena River, Alaska to predict important DI mechanisms that influence Chinook salmon spawning success. We used resource-selection functions to predict suitable spawning habitat based on geomorphic characteristics, a semi-distributed water-and-energy balance hydrologic model to generate stream flow metrics, and modeled stream temperature as a function of climatic variables. Spawner counts were predicted throughout the core and periphery spawning sections of the Chena River from escapement estimates (DD) and DI variables. Additionally, we used isodar analysis to identify whether spawners actively defend spawning habitat or follow an ideal free distribution along the riverscape. Aerial counts were best explained by escapement and reference to the core or periphery, while no models with DI variables were supported in the candidate set. Furthermore, isodar plots indicated habitat selection was best explained by ideal free distributions, although there was strong evidence for active defense of core spawning habitat. Our results are surprising, given salmon commonly defend spawning resources, and are likely due to competition occurring at finer spatial scales than addressed in this study.

The role of density-dependent and –independent processes in spawning habitat selection by salmon in an Arctic riverscape

DOE PAGES

Huntsman, Brock M.; Falke, Jeffrey A.; Savereide, James W.; ...

2017-05-22

Density-dependent (DD) and density-independent (DI) habitat selection is strongly linked to a species’ evolutionary history. Determining the relative importance of each is necessary because declining populations are not always the result of altered DI mechanisms but can often be the result of DD via a reduced carrying capacity. Here, we developed spatially and temporally explicit models throughout the Chena River, Alaska to predict important DI mechanisms that influence Chinook salmon spawning success. We used resource-selection functions to predict suitable spawning habitat based on geomorphic characteristics, a semi-distributed water-and-energy balance hydrologic model to generate stream flow metrics, and modeled stream temperaturemore » as a function of climatic variables. Spawner counts were predicted throughout the core and periphery spawning sections of the Chena River from escapement estimates (DD) and DI variables. In addition, we used isodar analysis to identify whether spawners actively defend spawning habitat or follow an ideal free distribution along the riverscape. Aerial counts were best explained by escapement and reference to the core or periphery, while no models with DI variables were supported in the candidate set. Moreover, isodar plots indicated habitat selection was best explained by ideal free distributions, although there was strong evidence for active defense of core spawning habitat. These results are surprising, given salmon commonly defend spawning resources, and are likely due to competition occurring at finer spatial scales than addressed in this study.« less

The role of density-dependent and –independent processes in spawning habitat selection by salmon in an Arctic riverscape

USGS Publications Warehouse

Huntsman, Brock M.; Falke, Jeffrey A.; Savereide, James W.; Bennett, Katrina E.

2017-01-01

Density-dependent (DD) and density-independent (DI) habitat selection is strongly linked to a species’ evolutionary history. Determining the relative importance of each is necessary because declining populations are not always the result of altered DI mechanisms but can often be the result of DD via a reduced carrying capacity. We developed spatially and temporally explicit models throughout the Chena River, Alaska to predict important DI mechanisms that influence Chinook salmon spawning success. We used resource-selection functions to predict suitable spawning habitat based on geomorphic characteristics, a semi-distributed water-and-energy balance hydrologic model to generate stream flow metrics, and modeled stream temperature as a function of climatic variables. Spawner counts were predicted throughout the core and periphery spawning sections of the Chena River from escapement estimates (DD) and DI variables. Additionally, we used isodar analysis to identify whether spawners actively defend spawning habitat or follow an ideal free distribution along the riverscape. Aerial counts were best explained by escapement and reference to the core or periphery, while no models with DI variables were supported in the candidate set. Furthermore, isodar plots indicated habitat selection was best explained by ideal free distributions, although there was strong evidence for active defense of core spawning habitat. Our results are surprising, given salmon commonly defend spawning resources, and are likely due to competition occurring at finer spatial scales than addressed in this study.

Using Probability of Exceedance to Compare the Resource Risk of Renewable and Gas-Fired Generation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bolinger, Mark

Of the myriad risks surrounding long-term investments in power plants, resource risk is one of the most difficult to mitigate, and is also perhaps the risk that most-clearly distinguishes renewable generation from natural gas-fired generation. For renewable generators like wind and solar projects, resource risk manifests as a quantity risk—i.e., the risk that the quantity of wind and insolation will be less than expected.i For gas-fired generators (i.e., a combined-cycle gas turbine or “CCGT”), resource risk manifests primarily as a price risk—i.e., the risk that natural gas will cost more than expected. Most often, resource risk—and natural gas price riskmore » in particular—falls disproportionately on utility ratepayers, who are typically not well-equipped to manage this risk. As such, it is incumbent upon utilities, regulators, and policymakers to ensure that resource risk is taken into consideration when making or approving resource decisions, or enacting policies that influence the development of the electricity sector more broadly.« less

Technical, economic and legal aspects of wind energy utilization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Obermair, G. M.; Jarass, L.

Potentially problematical areas of the implementation of wind turbines for electricity production in West Germany are identified and briefly discussed. Variations in wind generator output due to source variability may cause power regulation difficulties in the grid and also raise uncertainties in utility capacity planning for new construction. Catastrophic machine component failures, such as a thrown blade, are hazardous to life and property, while lulls in the resource can cause power regulation capabilities only when grid penetration has reached significant levels. Economically, the lack of actual data from large scale wind projects is cited as a barrier to accurate cost comparisons of wind-derived power relative to other generating sources, although breakeven costs for wind power have been found to be $2000/kW installed capacity, i.e., a marginal cost of $0.10/kW.

Remote entanglement between a single atom and a Bose-Einstein condensate.

PubMed

Lettner, M; Mücke, M; Riedl, S; Vo, C; Hahn, C; Baur, S; Bochmann, J; Ritter, S; Dürr, S; Rempe, G

2011-05-27

Entanglement between stationary systems at remote locations is a key resource for quantum networks. We report on the experimental generation of remote entanglement between a single atom inside an optical cavity and a Bose-Einstein condensate (BEC). To produce this, a single photon is created in the atom-cavity system, thereby generating atom-photon entanglement. The photon is transported to the BEC and converted into a collective excitation in the BEC, thus establishing matter-matter entanglement. After a variable delay, this entanglement is converted into photon-photon entanglement. The matter-matter entanglement lifetime of 100 μs exceeds the photon duration by 2 orders of magnitude. The total fidelity of all concatenated operations is 95%. This hybrid system opens up promising perspectives in the field of quantum information. © 2011 American Physical Society

A virtual water network of the Roman world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dermody, B. J.; van Beek, R. P. H.; Meeks, E.; Klein Goldewijk, K.; Scheidel, W.; van der Velde, Y.; Bierkens, M. F. P.; Wassen, M. J.; Dekker, S. C.

2014-12-01

The Romans were perhaps the most impressive exponents of water resource management in preindustrial times with irrigation and virtual water trade facilitating unprecedented urbanization and socioeconomic stability for hundreds of years in a region of highly variable climate. To understand Roman water resource management in response to urbanization and climate variability, a Virtual Water Network of the Roman World was developed. Using this network we find that irrigation and virtual water trade increased Roman resilience to interannual climate variability. However, urbanization arising from virtual water trade likely pushed the Empire closer to the boundary of its water resources, led to an increase in import costs, and eroded its resilience to climate variability in the long term. In addition to improving our understanding of Roman water resource management, our cost-distance-based analysis illuminates how increases in import costs arising from climatic and population pressures are likely to be distributed in the future global virtual water network.

A virtual water network of the Roman world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dermody, B. J.; van Beek, R. P. H.; Meeks, E.; Klein Goldewijk, K.; Scheidel, W.; van der Velde, Y.; Bierkens, M. F. P.; Wassen, M. J.; Dekker, S. C.

2014-06-01

The Romans were perhaps the most impressive exponents of water resource management in preindustrial times with irrigation and virtual water trade facilitating unprecedented urbanisation and socioeconomic stability for hundreds of years in a region of highly variable climate. To understand Roman water resource management in response to urbanisation and climate variability, a Virtual Water Network of the Roman World was developed. Using this network we find that irrigation and virtual water trade increased Roman resilience to climate variability in the short term. However, urbanisation arising from virtual water trade likely pushed the Empire closer to the boundary of its water resources, led to an increase in import costs, and reduced its resilience to climate variability in the long-term. In addition to improving our understanding of Roman water resource management, our cost-distance based analysis illuminates how increases in import costs arising from climatic and population pressures are likely to be distributed in the future global virtual water network.

Wind energy developments in the 20th century

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vargo, D. J.

1974-01-01

Wind turbine systems for generating electrical power have been tested in many countries. Representative examples of turbines which have produced from 100 to 1250 kW are described. The advantages of wind energy consist of its being a nondepleting, nonpolluting, and free fuel source. Its disadvantages relate to the variability of wind and the high installation cost per kilowatt of capacity of wind turbines when compared to other methods of electric-power generation. High fuel costs and potential resource scarcity have led to a five-year joint NASA-NSF program to study wind energy. The program will study wind energy conversion and storage systems with respect to cost effectiveness, and will attempt to estimate national wind-energy potential and develop techniques for generator site selection. The studies concern a small-systems (50-250 kW) project, a megawatt-systems (500-3000 kW) project, supporting research and technology, and energy storage. Preliminary economic analyses indicate that wind-energy conversion can be competitive in high-average-wind areas.

MULTIGENERATIONAL ASPECTS OF SOCIAL STRATIFICATION: ISSUES FOR FURTHER RESEARCH.

PubMed

Mare, Robert D

2014-03-01

The articles in this special issue show the vitality and progress of research on multigenerational aspects of social mobility, stratification, and inequality. The effects of the characteristics and behavior of grandparents and other kin on the statuses, resources, and positions of their descendants are best viewed in a demographic context. Intergenerational effects work through both the intergenerational associations of socioeconomic characteristics and also differential fertility and mortality. A combined socioeconomic and demographic framework informs a research agenda which addresses the following issues: how generational effects combine with variation in age, period, and cohort within each generation; distinguishing causal relationships across generations from statistical associations; how multigenerational effects vary across socioeconomic hierarchies, including the possibility of stronger effects at the extreme top and bottom; distinguishing between endowments and investments in intergenerational effects; multigenerational effects on associated demographic behaviors and outcomes (especially fertility and mortality); optimal tradeoffs among diverse types of data on multigenerational processes; and the variability across time and place in how kin, education, and other institutions affect stratification.

MULTIGENERATIONAL ASPECTS OF SOCIAL STRATIFICATION: ISSUES FOR FURTHER RESEARCH

PubMed Central

Mare, Robert D.

2014-01-01

The articles in this special issue show the vitality and progress of research on multigenerational aspects of social mobility, stratification, and inequality. The effects of the characteristics and behavior of grandparents and other kin on the statuses, resources, and positions of their descendants are best viewed in a demographic context. Intergenerational effects work through both the intergenerational associations of socioeconomic characteristics and also differential fertility and mortality. A combined socioeconomic and demographic framework informs a research agenda which addresses the following issues: how generational effects combine with variation in age, period, and cohort within each generation; distinguishing causal relationships across generations from statistical associations; how multigenerational effects vary across socioeconomic hierarchies, including the possibility of stronger effects at the extreme top and bottom; distinguishing between endowments and investments in intergenerational effects; multigenerational effects on associated demographic behaviors and outcomes (especially fertility and mortality); optimal tradeoffs among diverse types of data on multigenerational processes; and the variability across time and place in how kin, education, and other institutions affect stratification. PMID:24748709

Users guide for the Water Resources Division bibliographic retrieval and report generation system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tamberg, Nora

1983-01-01

The WRDBIB Retrieval and Report-generation system has been developed by applying Multitrieve (CSD 1980, Reston) software to bibliographic data files. The WRDBIB data base includes some 9 ,000 records containing bibliographic citations and descriptors of WRD reports released for publication during 1968-1982. The data base is resident in the Reston Multics computer and may be accessed by registered Multics users in the field. The WRDBIB Users Guide provides detailed procedures on how to run retrieval programs using WRDBIB library files, and how to prepare custom bibliographic reports and author indexes. Users may search the WRDBIB data base on the following variable fields as described in the Data Dictionary: Authors, organizational source, title, citation, publication year, descriptors, and the WRSIC (accession) number. The Users Guide provides ample examples of program runs illustrating various retrieval and report generation aspects. Appendices include Multics access and file manipulation procedures; a ' Glossary of Selected Terms'; and a complete ' Retrieval Session ' with step-by-step outlines. (USGS)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Krishnan, Venkat; Cole, Wesley

This poster is based on the paper of the same name, presented at the IEEE Power & Energy Society General Meeting, July18, 2016. Power sector capacity expansion models (CEMs) have a broad range of spatial resolutions. This paper uses the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model, a long-term national scale electric sector CEM, to evaluate the value of high spatial resolution for CEMs. ReEDS models the United States with 134 load balancing areas (BAs) and captures the variability in existing generation parameters, future technology costs, performance, and resource availability using very high spatial resolution data, especially for wind and solarmore » modeled at 356 resource regions. In this paper we perform planning studies at three different spatial resolutions - native resolution (134 BAs), state-level, and NERC region level - and evaluate how results change under different levels of spatial aggregation in terms of renewable capacity deployment and location, associated transmission builds, and system costs. The results are used to ascertain the value of high geographically resolved models in terms of their impact on relative competitiveness among renewable energy resources.« less

N-mix for fish: estimating riverine salmonid habitat selection via N-mixture models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Som, Nicholas A.; Perry, Russell W.; Jones, Edward C.; De Juilio, Kyle; Petros, Paul; Pinnix, William D.; Rupert, Derek L.

2018-01-01

Models that formulate mathematical linkages between fish use and habitat characteristics are applied for many purposes. For riverine fish, these linkages are often cast as resource selection functions with variables including depth and velocity of water and distance to nearest cover. Ecologists are now recognizing the role that detection plays in observing organisms, and failure to account for imperfect detection can lead to spurious inference. Herein, we present a flexible N-mixture model to associate habitat characteristics with the abundance of riverine salmonids that simultaneously estimates detection probability. Our formulation has the added benefits of accounting for demographics variation and can generate probabilistic statements regarding intensity of habitat use. In addition to the conceptual benefits, model application to data from the Trinity River, California, yields interesting results. Detection was estimated to vary among surveyors, but there was little spatial or temporal variation. Additionally, a weaker effect of water depth on resource selection is estimated than that reported by previous studies not accounting for detection probability. N-mixture models show great promise for applications to riverine resource selection.

The evolutionary and ecological roots of human social organization

PubMed Central

Kaplan, Hillard S.; Hooper, Paul L.; Gurven, Michael

2009-01-01

Social organization among human foragers is characterized by a three-generational system of resource provisioning within families, long-term pair-bonding between men and women, high levels of cooperation between kin and non-kin, and relatively egalitarian social relationships. In this paper, we suggest that these core features of human sociality result from the learning- and skill-intensive human foraging niche, which is distinguished by a late age-peak in caloric production, high complementarity between male and female inputs to offspring viability, high gains to cooperation in production and risk-reduction, and a lack of economically defensible resources. We present an explanatory framework for understanding variation in social organization across human societies, highlighting the interactive effects of four key ecological and economic variables: (i) the role of skill in resource production; (ii) the degree of complementarity in male and female inputs into production; (iii) economies of scale in cooperative production and competition; and (iv) the economic defensibility of physical inputs into production. Finally, we apply this framework to understanding variation in social and political organization across foraging, horticulturalist, pastoralist and agriculturalist societies. PMID:19805435

Psychological well-being after spinal cord injury: perception of loss and meaning making.

PubMed

deRoon-Cassini, Terri A; de St Aubin, Ed; Valvano, Abbey; Hastings, James; Horn, Patricia

2009-08-01

This study examined the influence of medical injury severity, perceived loss of physical functioning (conceptualized as physical resource loss), and global meaning making on psychological well-being among 79 veterans living with a spinal cord injury. Structured interviews were completed to assess perceived loss of physical abilities using the Conservation of Resources-Evaluation and SF-36 Health Survey, global meaning making (Purpose in Life scale), and psychological well-being (Sense of Well-Being Inventory). Medical injury severity was calculated from medical records. Medical injury severity was not related to psychological well-being, whereas perceived loss of physical functioning was inversely associated. Global meaning making was significantly related to and accounted for a large portion of the variance in psychological well-being. Results suggest that global meaning making partially mediates perceived loss of physical resources and psychological well-being. The perceived loss of physical abilities and the generation of meaning and purpose in life are important variables that relate to positive adaptation following spinal cord injury. Treatment implications related to factors that increase quality of life following spinal cord injury are discussed. (c) 2009 APA

Cloud-based bioinformatics workflow platform for large-scale next-generation sequencing analyses

PubMed Central

Liu, Bo; Madduri, Ravi K; Sotomayor, Borja; Chard, Kyle; Lacinski, Lukasz; Dave, Utpal J; Li, Jianqiang; Liu, Chunchen; Foster, Ian T

2014-01-01

Due to the upcoming data deluge of genome data, the need for storing and processing large-scale genome data, easy access to biomedical analyses tools, efficient data sharing and retrieval has presented significant challenges. The variability in data volume results in variable computing and storage requirements, therefore biomedical researchers are pursuing more reliable, dynamic and convenient methods for conducting sequencing analyses. This paper proposes a Cloud-based bioinformatics workflow platform for large-scale next-generation sequencing analyses, which enables reliable and highly scalable execution of sequencing analyses workflows in a fully automated manner. Our platform extends the existing Galaxy workflow system by adding data management capabilities for transferring large quantities of data efficiently and reliably (via Globus Transfer), domain-specific analyses tools preconfigured for immediate use by researchers (via user-specific tools integration), automatic deployment on Cloud for on-demand resource allocation and pay-as-you-go pricing (via Globus Provision), a Cloud provisioning tool for auto-scaling (via HTCondor scheduler), and the support for validating the correctness of workflows (via semantic verification tools). Two bioinformatics workflow use cases as well as performance evaluation are presented to validate the feasibility of the proposed approach. PMID:24462600

Season-ahead streamflow forecast informed tax strategies for semi-arid water rights markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delorit, J. D.; Block, P. J.

2016-12-01

In many semi-arid regions multisectoral demands stress available water supplies. The Elqui River valley of north central Chile, which draws on limited capacity reservoirs supplied largely by annually variable snowmelt, is one of these cases. This variability forces water managers to develop demand-based allocation strategies which have typically resulted in water right volume reductions, applied equally per right. Compounding this issue is often deferred or delayed infrastructure investments, which has been linked Chile's Coasian approach to water markets, under which rights holders do not pay direct procurement costs, non-use fees, nor taxes. Here we build upon our previous research using forecasts of likely water rights reductions, informed by season-ahead prediction models of October-January (austral growing season) streamflow, to construct annual, forecast-sensitive, per right tax. We believe this tax, to be borne by right holders, will improve the beneficial use of water resources by stimulating water rights trading and improving system efficiency by generating funds for infrastructure investment, thereby reducing free-ridership and conflict between rights holders. Research outputs will include sectoral per right tax assessments, tax revenue generation, Elqui River valley economic output, and water rights trading activity.

Cloud-based bioinformatics workflow platform for large-scale next-generation sequencing analyses.

PubMed

Liu, Bo; Madduri, Ravi K; Sotomayor, Borja; Chard, Kyle; Lacinski, Lukasz; Dave, Utpal J; Li, Jianqiang; Liu, Chunchen; Foster, Ian T

2014-06-01

Due to the upcoming data deluge of genome data, the need for storing and processing large-scale genome data, easy access to biomedical analyses tools, efficient data sharing and retrieval has presented significant challenges. The variability in data volume results in variable computing and storage requirements, therefore biomedical researchers are pursuing more reliable, dynamic and convenient methods for conducting sequencing analyses. This paper proposes a Cloud-based bioinformatics workflow platform for large-scale next-generation sequencing analyses, which enables reliable and highly scalable execution of sequencing analyses workflows in a fully automated manner. Our platform extends the existing Galaxy workflow system by adding data management capabilities for transferring large quantities of data efficiently and reliably (via Globus Transfer), domain-specific analyses tools preconfigured for immediate use by researchers (via user-specific tools integration), automatic deployment on Cloud for on-demand resource allocation and pay-as-you-go pricing (via Globus Provision), a Cloud provisioning tool for auto-scaling (via HTCondor scheduler), and the support for validating the correctness of workflows (via semantic verification tools). Two bioinformatics workflow use cases as well as performance evaluation are presented to validate the feasibility of the proposed approach. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Comparison of Bootstrapping and Markov Chain Monte Carlo for Copula Analysis of Hydrological Droughts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, P.; Ng, T. L.; Yang, W.

2015-12-01

Effective water resources management depends on the reliable estimation of the uncertainty of drought events. Confidence intervals (CIs) are commonly applied to quantify this uncertainty. A CI seeks to be at the minimal length necessary to cover the true value of the estimated variable with the desired probability. In drought analysis where two or more variables (e.g., duration and severity) are often used to describe a drought, copulas have been found suitable for representing the joint probability behavior of these variables. However, the comprehensive assessment of the parameter uncertainties of copulas of droughts has been largely ignored, and the few studies that have recognized this issue have not explicitly compared the various methods to produce the best CIs. Thus, the objective of this study to compare the CIs generated using two widely applied uncertainty estimation methods, bootstrapping and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). To achieve this objective, (1) the marginal distributions lognormal, Gamma, and Generalized Extreme Value, and the copula functions Clayton, Frank, and Plackett are selected to construct joint probability functions of two drought related variables. (2) The resulting joint functions are then fitted to 200 sets of simulated realizations of drought events with known distribution and extreme parameters and (3) from there, using bootstrapping and MCMC, CIs of the parameters are generated and compared. The effect of an informative prior on the CIs generated by MCMC is also evaluated. CIs are produced for different sample sizes (50, 100, and 200) of the simulated drought events for fitting the joint probability functions. Preliminary results assuming lognormal marginal distributions and the Clayton copula function suggest that for cases with small or medium sample sizes (~50-100), MCMC to be superior method if an informative prior exists. Where an informative prior is unavailable, for small sample sizes (~50), both bootstrapping and MCMC yield the same level of performance, and for medium sample sizes (~100), bootstrapping is better. For cases with a large sample size (~200), there is little difference between the CIs generated using bootstrapping and MCMC regardless of whether or not an informative prior exists.

Modeling Electricity Sector Vulnerabilities and Costs Associated with Water Temperatures Under Scenarios of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macknick, J.; Miara, A.; Brinkman, G.; Ibanez, E.; Newmark, R. L.

2014-12-01

The reliability of the power sector is highly vulnerable to variability in the availability and temperature of water resources, including those that might result from potential climatic changes or from competition from other users. In the past decade, power plants throughout the United States have had to shut down or curtail generation due to a lack of available water or from elevated water temperatures. These disruptions in power plant performance can have negative impacts on energy security and can be costly to address. Analysis of water-related vulnerabilities requires modeling capabilities with high spatial and temporal resolution. This research provides an innovative approach to energy-water modeling by evaluating the costs and reliability of a power sector region under policy and climate change scenarios that affect water resource availability and temperatures. This work utilizes results from a spatially distributed river water temperature model coupled with a thermoelectric power plant model to provide inputs into an electricity production cost model that operates on a high spatial and temporal resolution. The regional transmission organization ISO-New England, which includes six New England states and over 32 Gigawatts of power capacity, is utilized as a case study. Hydrological data and power plant operations are analyzed over an eleven year period from 2000-2010 under four scenarios that include climate impacts on water resources and air temperatures as well as strict interpretations of regulations that can affect power plant operations due to elevated water temperatures. Results of these model linkages show how the power sector's reliability and economic performance can be affected by changes in water temperatures and water availability. The effective reliability and capacity value of thermal electric generators are quantified and discussed in the context of current as well as potential future water resource characteristics.

Towards integrated assessment of the northern Adriatic Sea sediment budget using remote sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taramelli, A.; Filipponi, F.; Valentini, E.; Zucca, F.; Gutierrez, O. Q.; Liberti, L.; Cordella, M.

2014-12-01

Understanding the factors influencing sediment fluxes is a key issue to interpret the evolution of coastal sedimentation under natural and human impact and relevant for the natural resources management. Despite river plumes represent one of the major gain in sedimentary budget of littoral cells, knowledge of factors influencing complex behavior of coastal plumes, like river discharge characteristics, wind stress and hydro-climatic variables, has not been yet fully investigated. Use of Earth Observation data allows the identification of spatial and temporal variations of suspended sediments related to river runoff, seafloor erosion, sediment transport and deposition processes. Objective of the study is to investigate sediment fluxes in northern Adriatic Sea by linking suspended sediment patterns of coastal plumes to hydrologic and climatic forcing regulating the sedimentary cell budget and geomorphological evolution in coastal systems and continental shelf waters. Analysis of Total Suspended Matter (TSM) product, derived from 2002-2012 MERIS time series, was done to map changes in spatial and temporal dimension of suspended sediments, focusing on turbid plume waters and intense wind stress conditions. From the generated multi temporal TSM maps, dispersal patterns of major freshwater runoff plumes in northern Adriatic Sea were evaluated through spatial variability of coastal plumes shape and extent. Additionally, sediment supply from river distributary mouths was estimated from TSM and correlated with river discharge rates, wind field and wave field through time. Spatial based methodology has been developed to identify events of wave-generated resuspension of sediments, which cause variation in water column turbidity, occurring during intense wind stress and extreme metocean conditions, especially in the winter period. The identified resuspension events were qualitatively described and compared with to hydro-climatic variables. The identification of spatial and temporal pattern variability highlighted the presence of seasonal sediment dynamics linked to the seasonal cycle in river discharge and wind stress. Results suggest that sediment fluxes generate geomorphological variations in northern Adriatic Sea, which are mainly controlled by river discharge rates and modulated by the winds.

Costs of solar and wind power variability for reducing CO2 emissions.

PubMed

Lueken, Colleen; Cohen, Gilbert E; Apt, Jay

2012-09-04

We compare the power output from a year of electricity generation data from one solar thermal plant, two solar photovoltaic (PV) arrays, and twenty Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) wind farms. The analysis shows that solar PV electricity generation is approximately one hundred times more variable at frequencies on the order of 10(-3) Hz than solar thermal electricity generation, and the variability of wind generation lies between that of solar PV and solar thermal. We calculate the cost of variability of the different solar power sources and wind by using the costs of ancillary services and the energy required to compensate for its variability and intermittency, and the cost of variability per unit of displaced CO(2) emissions. We show the costs of variability are highly dependent on both technology type and capacity factor. California emissions data were used to calculate the cost of variability per unit of displaced CO(2) emissions. Variability cost is greatest for solar PV generation at $8-11 per MWh. The cost of variability for solar thermal generation is $5 per MWh, while that of wind generation in ERCOT was found to be on average $4 per MWh. Variability adds ~$15/tonne CO(2) to the cost of abatement for solar thermal power, $25 for wind, and $33-$40 for PV.

What happens to COPD patients before an admission with exacerbation?

PubMed

Stone, Robert; Lowe, Derek; Buckingham, Rhona; Pursey, Nancy; Potter, Jonathan; Roberts, C Michael

2012-10-01

To obtain patient-generated data relating to the management of their chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in Primary Care before hospitalisation with exacerbation. Previous audits of COPD have shown high rates of hospital admission and readmission. There is significant interest in understanding the reasons so that useful preventative strategies may be developed. As part of the 2008 UK COPD audit, which comprised 9716 cases of COPD admission across 97% of acute units, we obtained a sample of patient-generated data to assess understanding of COPD, use of healthcare resources, access to care and self-management in Primary Care prior to hospitalisation with exacerbation. We anticipated the data would provide useful insight for directing improvement strategies. A paper-based, anonymised survey was completed by patients identified as having exacerbation by participating hospital teams. Response rate was an estimated 46%. Understanding and awareness of COPD was very variable. Patients noticed symptoms of COPD exacerbation, particularly change in sputum, for some time prior to hospitalisation but tended not to react promptly to these changes. A minority had self-care plans, many bypassed Primary Care Services and there was variable access to a named health professional or advice. Patients using home oxygen and nebulisers were at particular risk of admission. We conclude these sick patients use a lot of resources and the data suggest a need to support and educate them in the proactive management of exacerbation. There needs to be better 'exacerbation planning' so patients know how to recognise and treat flare-up but also whom to contact in the event of decline. Targetted support should be considered for the most vulnerable, particularly those using home oxygen and nebulisers, who have very high rates of hospitalisation.

Modeling the Value of Integrated Canadian and U.S. Power Sector Expansion

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cole, Wesley, Beiter, Philipp; Steinberg, Daniel

2016-09-08

The United States and Canada power systems are not isolated. Cross-border transmission and coordination of system operation create an interconnected power system, which results in combined imports and exports of electricity of greater than 70 TWh per year [1]. Currently, over 5 GW of new international transmission lines are in various stages of permitting and development. These lines may enable greater integration and coordination of the U.S. and Canada systems, which can in turn reduce challenges associated with integration of high penetrations of variable renewables. Furthermore, low-cost Canadian resources, such as wind and hydro, could contribute to compliance with themore » EPA's recently released Clean Power Plan. Improving integration and coordination internationally will reduce the costs of accessing these resources. This analysis work build on previous work by Ibanez and Zinaman [2]. In this work we seek to better understand the value of additional interconnection between the U.S. and Canadian power systems. Specifically, we quantify the value of additional interconnection and coordination within the Canadian-US integrated power system under scenarios in which large reductions (>80%) in power sector CO2 emissions are achieved. We explore how the ability to add additional cross-border transmission impacts capacity investment, the generation mix, system costs, and the ability of the system to integrate variable renewable energy into the power system. This analysis uses the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) capacity expansion model [3], [4] to quantify the value of the integrated power system expansion of the United States and Canada. ReEDS is an optimization model that assesses the deployment and operation (including transmission) of the electricity sector of the contiguous United States and Canadian provinces from 2016 through 2050. It has the ability to model the integration of renewable energy technologies into the grid. ReEDS captures renewable energy resources through the use of 356 individual resource regions and 134 balancing areas across the U.S. and is able to handle renewable energy issues such as variability in wind and solar output, transmission costs and constraints, and ancillary services requirements.« less

Impact on Hydrological Flows and Water Quality Using the Swat Model - the Case of Piracicaba Watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Queiroz, M. R.; Rocha, H.

2013-05-01

Understanding the functionality of water cycle in Brazilian ecosystems is one of the factors that generate the power to formulate smart strategies for biodiversity conservation and sustainable productivity in agro-ecosystems, promoting the generation of information that support the demands of occupation. Good policy formulation of land use depends on the expected climate change in the coming decades, as well as, surface cover and management must adapt to the socio-economic regional vocations so as to cause minimal impact. The changes in the land use influence the quantity and quality of water, contributing to floods and environmental changes. Additionally, climate change and variability, either natural or manmade cause, directly affect the human life. One of the main effects of weather occurs in the runoff generated in the basins, which in turn affects the water supply and demand in various sectors such as supply, irrigation and energy. The results Will show the impacts of climate variability on water resources (quantity and quality) to the Piracicaba watershed, through numerical modeling SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool), developed with the objective to analyze the impacts of changes in land use on runoff and underground production of sediment and water quality. The results of this proposal will provide information to answer better understanding of the ecological functionality and freshwater ecosystems in Brazil, and particularly in the study region in the state of São Paulo, increase the predictability of the Earth's climate system, from knowledge of the response of terrestrial biota to different forms of climate variability and increased knowledge of alternative socio-economic adaptation of terrestrial biota and climate change.

Experimental comparison of PV-smoothing controllers using distributed generators

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Johnson, Jay Dean; Ellis, Abraham; Denda, Atsushi

The power output variability of photovoltaic systems can affect local electrical grids in locations with high renewable energy penetrations or weak distribution or transmission systems. In those rare cases, quick controllable generators (e.g., energy storage systems) or loads can counteract the destabilizing effects by compensating for the power fluctuations. Previously, control algorithms for coordinated and uncoordinated operation of a small natural gas engine-generator (genset) and a battery for smoothing PV plant output were optimized using MATLAB/Simulink simulations. The simulations demonstrated that a traditional generation resource such as a natural gas genset in combination with a battery would smooth the photovoltaicmore » output while using a smaller battery state of charge (SOC) range and extending the life of the battery. This paper reports on the experimental implementation of the coordinated and uncoordinated controllers to verify the simulations and determine the differences in the controllers. The experiments were performed with the PNM PV and energy storage Prosperity site and a gas engine-generator located at the Aperture Center at Mesa Del Sol in Albuquerque, New Mexico. Two field demonstrations were performed to compare the different PV smoothing control algorithms: (1) implementing the coordinated and uncoordinated controls while switching off a subsection of the PV array at precise times on successive clear days, and (2) comparing the results of the battery and genset outputs for the coordinated control on a high variability day with simulations of the coordinated and uncoordinated controls. It was found that for certain PV power profiles the SOC range of the battery may be larger with the coordinated control, but the total amp-hours through the battery-which approximates battery wear-will always be smaller with the coordinated control.« less

PV output smoothing using a battery and natural gas engine-generator.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Johnson, Jay Dean; Ellis, Abraham; Denda, Atsushi

2013-02-01

In some situations involving weak grids or high penetration scenarios, the variability of photovoltaic systems can affect the local electrical grid. In order to mitigate destabilizing effects of power fluctuations, an energy storage device or other controllable generation or load can be used. This paper describes the development of a controller for coordinated operation of a small gas engine-generator set (genset) and a battery for smoothing PV plant output. There are a number of benefits derived from using a traditional generation resource in combination with the battery; the variability of the photovoltaic system can be reduced to a specific levelmore » with a smaller battery and Power Conditioning System (PCS) and the lifetime of the battery can be extended. The controller was designed specifically for a PV/energy storage project (Prosperity) and a gas engine-generator (Mesa Del Sol) currently operating on the same feeder in Albuquerque, New Mexico. A number of smoothing simulations of the Prosperity PV were conducted using power data collected from the site. By adjusting the control parameters, tradeoffs between battery use and ramp rates could be tuned. A cost function was created to optimize the control in order to balance, in this example, the need to have low ramp rates with reducing battery size and operation. Simulations were performed for cases with only a genset or battery, and with and without coordinated control between the genset and battery, e.g., without the communication link between sites or during a communication failure. The degree of smoothing without coordinated control did not change significantly because the battery dominated the smoothing response. It is anticipated that this work will be followed by a field demonstration in the near future.« less

A comparative analysis of errors in long-term econometric forecasts

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tepel, R.

1986-04-01

The growing body of literature that documents forecast accuracy falls generally into two parts. The first is prescriptive and is carried out by modelers who use simulation analysis as a tool for model improvement. These studies are ex post, that is, they make use of known values for exogenous variables and generate an error measure wholly attributable to the model. The second type of analysis is descriptive and seeks to measure errors, identify patterns among errors and variables and compare forecasts from different sources. Most descriptive studies use an ex ante approach, that is, they evaluate model outputs based onmore » estimated (or forecasted) exogenous variables. In this case, it is the forecasting process, rather than the model, that is under scrutiny. This paper uses an ex ante approach to measure errors in forecast series prepared by Data Resources Incorporated (DRI), Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates (Wharton), and Chase Econometrics (Chase) and to determine if systematic patterns of errors can be discerned between services, types of variables (by degree of aggregation), length of forecast and time at which the forecast is made. Errors are measured as the percent difference between actual and forecasted values for the historical period of 1971 to 1983.« less

The Mathematics of Psychotherapy: A Nonlinear Model of Change Dynamics.

PubMed

Schiepek, Gunter; Aas, Benjamin; Viol, Kathrin

2016-07-01

Psychotherapy is a dynamic process produced by a complex system of interacting variables. Even though there are qualitative models of such systems the link between structure and function, between network and network dynamics is still missing. The aim of this study is to realize these links. The proposed model is composed of five state variables (P: problem severity, S: success and therapeutic progress, M: motivation to change, E: emotions, I: insight and new perspectives) interconnected by 16 functions. The shape of each function is modified by four parameters (a: capability to form a trustful working alliance, c: mentalization and emotion regulation, r: behavioral resources and skills, m: self-efficacy and reward expectation). Psychologically, the parameters play the role of competencies or traits, which translate into the concept of control parameters in synergetics. The qualitative model was transferred into five coupled, deterministic, nonlinear difference equations generating the dynamics of each variable as a function of other variables. The mathematical model is able to reproduce important features of psychotherapy processes. Examples of parameter-dependent bifurcation diagrams are given. Beyond the illustrated similarities between simulated and empirical dynamics, the model has to be further developed, systematically tested by simulated experiments, and compared to empirical data.

Multiple indices of soil nitrogen status and temperature regulate microbial C allocation to CO2, substrate choices, and contributions to SOM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Billings, S. A.; Ziegler, S. E.

2012-12-01

The response of microbial resource demand to many environmental variables, including temperature and natural organic and inorganic N variability, remains poorly understood. Furthermore, we do not understand how these variables can influence CO2 release vs. C retention in cell walls, which as microbial necromass can generate long-lived soil organic matter (SOM). We explore microbial resource demand and C retention vs. release in one temperate forest and two boreal forests along a climate gradient. We characterized SOM C:N and inorganic N, extracellular enzyme activity (E), and phospholipid fatty acid (PLFA) concentration and δ13C. Experimental warming permitted us to assess how interactions between soil N status and warming influence resource demand and C flows through microbes in the two boreal soils. For all soils, we used δ13C of respired CO2 and δ13CPLFA to generate indices of C allocation to biomass vs. to respiratory costs (Δ), useful for cross-site comparisons. Decreasing values of Δ indicate a greater proportion of 13C-enriched C allocated to respiration relative to PLFA-C; changes in Δ with warming or N status thus imply that these variables can influence the physiological mechanisms determining the fate of microbial C after it is imported into the cell. We thus were able to assess the influence of soil N status and warming on substrate decay via E, the fate of microbial C from diverse substrates via Δ, and one index of microbial composition relevant to SOM formation [PLFA]. In all soils, E often varied with N status in ways predicted by stoichiometric theory. For example, the ratio of exo-enzymes associated with labile C decay to those linked to organic N decay (EC:N) increased with inorganic N, and EC:N declined as substrate C:N increased. In contrast to measures of decay, all soils exhibited distinct responses of microbial composition and C allocation to N status and warming. In the temperate forest soils, Gram+ bacteria responded positively to organic N availability and Gram- bacteria to inorganic N, while fungi responded positively to declines in both measures of soil N status. In the more northern boreal soils, actinomycete [PLFA] increased with inorganic N, while that of more southern boreal soils increased with substrate C:N; in both boreal soils, Gram+ bacteria increased with temperature. Given that cell walls of these microbes exhibit distinct propensities for forming long-lived SOM, our work illustrates how similar variation in N status and temperature can drive divergent patterns of biomass relevant to SOM formation. Sensitivity of patterns of C allocation to these variables also contrasted between these soils. In the temperate soils, Δ did not vary with soil N status nor with E, implying that microbes' C allocation patterns were not driven N status or by the C's organic precursor. In both boreal soils, Δ declined with warming, and as EC or EC:N increased. Though N status of the boreal soils drove resource demand similarly as in the temperate forest, the fate of boreal microbial C varied with N status and temperature. Because microbial C substrate use varied with warming in the boreal soils, Δ highlights how the fate of microbial C may vary with the identity of its organic precursor, which in turn is influenced by environmental conditions like temperature and soil N status.

Assessing the impacts of climate and land use and land cover change on the freshwater availability in the Brahmaputra River basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pervez, Md Shahriar; Henebry, Geoffrey M.

2015-01-01

New hydrological insights for the region: Basin average annual ET was found to be sensitive to changes in CO2 concentration and temperature, while total water yield, streamflow, and groundwater recharge were sensitive to changes in precipitation. The basin hydrological components were predicted to increase with seasonal variability in response to climate and land use change scenarios. Strong increasing trends were predicted for total water yield, streamflow, and groundwater recharge, indicating exacerbation of flooding potential during August–October, but strong decreasing trends were predicted, indicating exacerbation of drought potential during May–July of the 21st century. The model has potential to facilitate strategic decision making through scenario generation integrating climate change adaptation and hazard mitigation policies to ensure optimized allocation of water resources under a variable and changing climate.

A Strategy for Autogeneration of Space Shuttle Ground Processing Simulation Models for Project Makespan Estimations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Madden, Michael G.; Wyrick, Roberta; O'Neill, Dale E.

2005-01-01

Space Shuttle Processing is a complicated and highly variable project. The planning and scheduling problem, categorized as a Resource Constrained - Stochastic Project Scheduling Problem (RC-SPSP), has a great deal of variability in the Orbiter Processing Facility (OPF) process flow from one flight to the next. Simulation Modeling is a useful tool in estimation of the makespan of the overall process. However, simulation requires a model to be developed, which itself is a labor and time consuming effort. With such a dynamic process, often the model would potentially be out of synchronization with the actual process, limiting the applicability of the simulation answers in solving the actual estimation problem. Integration of TEAMS model enabling software with our existing schedule program software is the basis of our solution. This paper explains the approach used to develop an auto-generated simulation model from planning and schedule efforts and available data.

Lidar Electro-Optic Beam Switch with a Liquid Crystal Variable Retarder

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baer, James

2012-01-01

A document discusses a liquid crystal variable retarder, an electro-optic element that changes the polarization of an optical beam in response to a low-voltage electronic signal. This device can be fabricated so that the element creates, among other states, a half-wave of retardance that can be reduced to a very small retardance. When aligned to a polarized source, this can act to rotate the polarization by 90 in one state, but generate no rotation in the other state. If the beam is then incident on a polarization beam splitter, it will efficiently switch from one path to the other when the voltage is applied. The laser beam switching system has no moving parts, improving reliability over mechanical switching. It is low cost, tolerant of high laser power density, and needs only simple drive electronics, minimizing the required system resources.

Large-Scale Circulation and Climate Variability. Chapter 5

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Perlwitz, J.; Knutson, T.; Kossin, J. P.; LeGrande, A. N.

2017-01-01

The causes of regional climate trends cannot be understood without considering the impact of variations in large-scale atmospheric circulation and an assessment of the role of internally generated climate variability. There are contributions to regional climate trends from changes in large-scale latitudinal circulation, which is generally organized into three cells in each hemisphere-Hadley cell, Ferrell cell and Polar cell-and which determines the location of subtropical dry zones and midlatitude jet streams. These circulation cells are expected to shift poleward during warmer periods, which could result in poleward shifts in precipitation patterns, affecting natural ecosystems, agriculture, and water resources. In addition, regional climate can be strongly affected by non-local responses to recurring patterns (or modes) of variability of the atmospheric circulation or the coupled atmosphere-ocean system. These modes of variability represent preferred spatial patterns and their temporal variation. They account for gross features in variance and for teleconnections which describe climate links between geographically separated regions. Modes of variability are often described as a product of a spatial climate pattern and an associated climate index time series that are identified based on statistical methods like Principal Component Analysis (PC analysis), which is also called Empirical Orthogonal Function Analysis (EOF analysis), and cluster analysis.

A conceptual framework of outcomes for caregivers of assistive technology users.

PubMed

Demers, Louise; Fuhrer, Marcus J; Jutai, Jeffrey; Lenker, James; Depa, Malgorzata; De Ruyter, Frank

2009-08-01

To develop and validate the content of a conceptual framework concerning outcomes for caregivers whose recipients are assistive technology users. The study was designed in four stages. First, a list of potential key variables relevant to the caregivers of assistive technology users was generated from a review of the existing literature and semistructured interviews with caregivers. Second, the variables were analyzed, regrouped, and partitioned, using a conceptual mapping approach. Third, the key areas were anchored in a general stress model of caregiving. Finally, the judgments of rehabilitation experts were used to evaluate the conceptual framework. An important result of this study is the identification of a complex set of variables that need to be considered when examining the experience of caregivers of assistive technology users. Stressors, such as types of assistance, number of tasks, and physical effort, are predominant contributors to caregiver outcomes along with caregivers' personal resources acting as mediating factors (intervening variables) and assistive technology acting as a key moderating factor (effect modifier variable). Recipients' use of assistive technology can enhance caregivers' well being because of its potential for alleviating a number of stressors associated with caregiving. Viewed as a whole, this work demonstrates that the assistive technology experience of caregivers has many facets that merit the attention of outcomes researchers.

Measurement-based quantum communication with resource states generated by entanglement purification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wallnöfer, J.; Dür, W.

2017-01-01

We investigate measurement-based quantum communication with noisy resource states that are generated by entanglement purification. We consider the transmission of encoded information via noisy quantum channels using a measurement-based implementation of encoding, error correction, and decoding. We show that such an approach offers advantages over direct transmission, gate-based error correction, and measurement-based schemes with direct generation of resource states. We analyze the noise structure of resource states generated by entanglement purification and show that a local error model, i.e., noise acting independently on all qubits of the resource state, is a good approximation in general, and provides an exact description for Greenberger-Horne-Zeilinger states. The latter are resources for a measurement-based implementation of error-correction codes for bit-flip or phase-flip errors. This provides an approach to link the recently found very high thresholds for fault-tolerant measurement-based quantum information processing based on local error models for resource states with error thresholds for gate-based computational models.

Resource Scarcity and Prescriptive Attitudes Generate Subtle, Intergenerational Older-Worker Exclusion

PubMed Central

North, Michael S.; Fiske, Susan T.

2016-01-01

Prior work describes specific, prescriptive resource tensions between generations, comprising active Succession, passive Consumption, and symbolic Identity (SCI; North & Fiske, 2013a, 2013b). The current paper focuses on how these domains potentially drive intergenerational exclusion in work-related networking and training spheres. Studies 1a–1c—each focusing on a different SCI domain—manipulated perceived resource availability between generations, then introduced a professional networking opportunity. Across studies, scarcity reduced the likelihood of young participants’ networking engagement with older workers who violated SCI resource expectations. Study 2 impelled participants to allocate scarce training resources among three similarly qualified but different-aged employees (younger, middle-aged, and older). Older workers received the lowest such investment, particularly among younger participants—an effect driven by Succession beliefs, per mediation analyses. Overall, the findings emphasize resource tensions in driving older workers’ subtle exclusion by younger generations; minimizing such tensions will be critical for aging, increasingly intergenerational workplaces. PMID:27499555

Effect of Total Quality Management on the Quality and Productivity of Human Resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siregar, I.; Nasution, A. A.; Sari, R. M.

2017-03-01

Human resources is the main factor in improving company performance not only in industrial products but also services. Therefore, all of the organization performers involved must work together to achieve product quality services expected by consumers. Educational institutions are the service industries which are educators and instructor involved in it. Quality of product and services produced depends on the education organization performers. This study did a survey of instructors in public and private universities in North Sumatra to obtain the factors that affect quality of human resources and productivity of human resources. Human resources quality is viewed by the elements of TQM. TQM elements that are discussed in this study are leadership, communication, training and education, support structure, measurement and reward and recognition. The results of this study showed a correlation numbers across the exogenous variables on endogenous variables relationships tend to be strong and be positive. In addition, elements of TQM are discussed except the support structure which has a direct influence on the quality of human resources. Variable leadership, reward and recognition and quality of human resources have a significant effect on productivity.

Minimizing Spatial Variability of Healthcare Spatial Accessibility-The Case of a Dengue Fever Outbreak.

PubMed

Chu, Hone-Jay; Lin, Bo-Cheng; Yu, Ming-Run; Chan, Ta-Chien

2016-12-13

Outbreaks of infectious diseases or multi-casualty incidents have the potential to generate a large number of patients. It is a challenge for the healthcare system when demand for care suddenly surges. Traditionally, valuation of heath care spatial accessibility was based on static supply and demand information. In this study, we proposed an optimal model with the three-step floating catchment area (3SFCA) to account for the supply to minimize variability in spatial accessibility. We used empirical dengue fever outbreak data in Tainan City, Taiwan in 2015 to demonstrate the dynamic change in spatial accessibility based on the epidemic trend. The x and y coordinates of dengue-infected patients with precision loss were provided publicly by the Tainan City government, and were used as our model's demand. The spatial accessibility of heath care during the dengue outbreak from August to October 2015 was analyzed spatially and temporally by producing accessibility maps, and conducting capacity change analysis. This study also utilized the particle swarm optimization (PSO) model to decrease the spatial variation in accessibility and shortage areas of healthcare resources as the epidemic went on. The proposed method in this study can help decision makers reallocate healthcare resources spatially when the ratios of demand and supply surge too quickly and form clusters in some locations.

Multi-scale assessment of human-induced changes to ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Context: Land use change and forest degradation have myriad effects on tropical ecosystems. Yet their consequences for low-order streams remain very poorly understood, including in the world´s largest freshwater basin, the Amazon.Objectives: Determine the degree to which physical and chemical characteristics of the instream habitat of low-order Amazonian streams change in response to past local- and catchment-level anthropogenic disturbances. Methods: To do so, we collected field instream habitat (i.e., physical habitat and water quality) and landscape data from 99 stream sites in two eastern Brazilian Amazon regions. We used random forest regression trees to assess the relative importance of different predictor variables in determining changes in instream habitat response variables. Adaptations the USEPA’s National Aquatic Resource Survey (NARS) designs, field methods, and approaches for assessing ecological condition have been applied in state and basin stream surveys throughout the U.S., and also in countries outside of the U.S. These applications not only provide valuable tests of the NARS approaches, but generate new understandings of natural and anthropogenic controls on biota and physical habitat in streams. Results from applications in Brazil, for example, not only aid interpretation of the condition of Brazilian streams, but also refine approaches for interpreting aquatic resource surveys in the U.S. and elsewhere. In this article, the authors des

The cumulative effects of life event, personal and social resources on subjective well-being of elderly widowers.

PubMed

Balaswamy, S; Richardson, V E

2001-01-01

A multidimensional Life Stress Model was used to test the independent contributions of background characteristics, personal resources, life event, and environmental influences on 200 widowers' levels of well-being, measured by the Affect Balance Scale. Stepwise regression analyses revealed that environmental resources were unrelated to negative affect which is influenced more by the life event and personal resource variables. The environmental resource variables, particularly interactions with friends and neighbors, mostly influenced positive affect. The explanatory model for well-being included multiple variables and explained 33 percent of the variance. Although background characteristics had the greatest impact, absence of hospitalization, higher mastery, higher self-esteem, contacts with friends, and interaction with neighbors enhanced well-being. The results support previous speculations on the importance of positive exchanges for positive affect. African-American widowers showed higher levels of well-being than Caucasian widowers did. The results advance knowledge about differences among elderly men.

Research status of geothermal resources in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Lincheng; Li, Guang

2017-08-01

As the representative of the new green energy, geothermal resources are characterized by large reserve, wide distribution, cleanness and environmental protection, good stability, high utilization factor and other advantages. According to the characteristics of exploitation and utilization, they can be divided into high-temperature, medium-temperature and low-temperature geothermal resources. The abundant and widely distributed geothermal resources in China have a broad prospect for development. The medium and low temperature geothermal resources are broadly distributed in the continental crustal uplift and subsidence areas inside the plate, represented by the geothermal belt on the southeast coast, while the high temperature geothermal resources concentrate on Southern Tibet-Western Sichuan-Western Yunnan Geothermal Belt and Taiwan Geothermal Belt. Currently, the geothermal resources in China are mainly used for bathing, recuperation, heating and power generation. It is a country that directly makes maximum use of geothermal energy in the world. However, China’s geothermal power generation, including installed generating capacity and power generation capacity, are far behind those of Western European countries and the USA. Studies on exploitation and development of geothermal resources are still weak.

A Resource-Based Modelling Framework to Assess Habitat Suitability for Steppe Birds in Semiarid Mediterranean Agricultural Systems

PubMed Central

Cardador, Laura; De Cáceres, Miquel; Bota, Gerard; Giralt, David; Casas, Fabián; Arroyo, Beatriz; Mougeot, François; Cantero-Martínez, Carlos; Moncunill, Judit; Butler, Simon J.; Brotons, Lluís

2014-01-01

European agriculture is undergoing widespread changes that are likely to have profound impacts on farmland biodiversity. The development of tools that allow an assessment of the potential biodiversity effects of different land-use alternatives before changes occur is fundamental to guiding management decisions. In this study, we develop a resource-based model framework to estimate habitat suitability for target species, according to simple information on species’ key resource requirements (diet, foraging habitat and nesting site), and examine whether it can be used to link land-use and local species’ distribution. We take as a study case four steppe bird species in a lowland area of the north-eastern Iberian Peninsula. We also compare the performance of our resource-based approach to that obtained through habitat-based models relating species’ occurrence and land-cover variables. Further, we use our resource-based approach to predict the effects that change in farming systems can have on farmland bird habitat suitability and compare these predictions with those obtained using the habitat-based models. Habitat suitability estimates generated by our resource-based models performed similarly (and better for one study species) than habitat based-models when predicting current species distribution. Moderate prediction success was achieved for three out of four species considered by resource-based models and for two of four by habitat-based models. Although, there is potential for improving the performance of resource-based models, they provide a structure for using available knowledge of the functional links between agricultural practices, provision of key resources and the response of organisms to predict potential effects of changing land-uses in a variety of context or the impacts of changes such as altered management practices that are not easily incorporated into habitat-based models. PMID:24667825

Revealing, Reducing, and Representing Uncertainties in New Hydrologic Projections for Climate-changed Futures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arnold, Jeffrey; Clark, Martyn; Gutmann, Ethan; Wood, Andy; Nijssen, Bart; Rasmussen, Roy

2016-04-01

The United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) has had primary responsibility for multi-purpose water resource operations on most of the major river systems in the U.S. for more than 200 years. In that time, the USACE projects and programs making up those operations have proved mostly robust against the range of natural climate variability encountered over their operating life spans. However, in some watersheds and for some variables, climate change now is known to be shifting the hydroclimatic baseline around which that natural variability occurs and changing the range of that variability as well. This makes historical stationarity an inappropriate basis for assessing continued project operations under climate-changed futures. That means new hydroclimatic projections are required at multiple scales to inform decisions about specific threats and impacts, and for possible adaptation responses to limit water-resource vulnerabilities and enhance operational resilience. However, projections of possible future hydroclimatologies have myriad complex uncertainties that require explicit guidance for interpreting and using them to inform those decisions about climate vulnerabilities and resilience. Moreover, many of these uncertainties overlap and interact. Recent work, for example, has shown the importance of assessing the uncertainties from multiple sources including: global model structure [Meehl et al., 2005; Knutti and Sedlacek, 2013]; internal climate variability [Deser et al., 2012; Kay et al., 2014]; climate downscaling methods [Gutmann et al., 2012; Mearns et al., 2013]; and hydrologic models [Addor et al., 2014; Vano et al., 2014; Mendoza et al., 2015]. Revealing, reducing, and representing these uncertainties is essential for defining the plausible quantitative climate change narratives required to inform water-resource decision-making. And to be useful, such quantitative narratives, or storylines, of climate change threats and hydrologic impacts must sample from the full range of uncertainties associated with all parts of the simulation chain, from global climate models with simulations of natural climate variability, through regional climate downscaling, and on to modeling of affected hydrologic processes and downstream water resources impacts. This talk will present part of the work underway now both to reveal and reduce some important uncertainties and to develop explicit guidance for future generation of quantitative hydroclimatic storylines. Topics will include: 1- model structural and parameter-set limitations of some methods widely used to quantify climate impacts to hydrologic processes [Gutmann et al., 2014; Newman et al., 2015]; 2- development and evaluation of new, spatially consistent, U.S. national-scale climate downscaling and hydrologic simulation capabilities directly relevant at the multiple scales of water-resource decision-making [Newman et al., 2015; Mizukami et al., 2015; Gutmann et al., 2016]; and 3- development and evaluation of advanced streamflow forecasting methods to reduce and represent integrated uncertainties in a tractable way [Wood et al., 2014; Wood et al., 2015]. A key focus will be areas where climatologic and hydrologic science is currently under-developed to inform decisions - or is perhaps wrongly scaled or misapplied in practice - indicating the need for additional fundamental science and interpretation.

New Rodent Population Models May Inform Human Health Risk Assessment and Identification of Genetic Susceptibility to Environmental Exposures.

PubMed

Harrill, Alison H; McAllister, Kimberly A

2017-08-15

This paper provides an introduction for environmental health scientists to emerging population-based rodent resources. Mouse reference populations provide an opportunity to model environmental exposures and gene-environment interactions in human disease and to inform human health risk assessment. This review will describe several mouse populations for toxicity assessment, including older models such as the Mouse Diversity Panel (MDP), and newer models that include the Collaborative Cross (CC) and Diversity Outbred (DO) models. This review will outline the features of the MDP, CC, and DO mouse models and will discuss published case studies investigating the use of these mouse population resources in each step of the risk assessment paradigm. These unique resources have the potential to be powerful tools for generating hypotheses related to gene-environment interplay in human disease, performing controlled exposure studies to understand the differential responses in humans for susceptibility or resistance to environmental exposures, and identifying gene variants that influence sensitivity to toxicity and disease states. These new resources offer substantial advances to classical toxicity testing paradigms by including genetically sensitive individuals that may inform toxicity risks for sensitive subpopulations. Both in vivo and complementary in vitro resources provide platforms with which to reduce uncertainty by providing population-level data around biological variability. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP1274.

New Rodent Population Models May Inform Human Health Risk Assessment and Identification of Genetic Susceptibility to Environmental Exposures

PubMed Central

Harrill, Alison H.

2017-01-01

Background: This paper provides an introduction for environmental health scientists to emerging population-based rodent resources. Mouse reference populations provide an opportunity to model environmental exposures and gene–environment interactions in human disease and to inform human health risk assessment. Objectives: This review will describe several mouse populations for toxicity assessment, including older models such as the Mouse Diversity Panel (MDP), and newer models that include the Collaborative Cross (CC) and Diversity Outbred (DO) models. Methods: This review will outline the features of the MDP, CC, and DO mouse models and will discuss published case studies investigating the use of these mouse population resources in each step of the risk assessment paradigm. Discussion: These unique resources have the potential to be powerful tools for generating hypotheses related to gene–environment interplay in human disease, performing controlled exposure studies to understand the differential responses in humans for susceptibility or resistance to environmental exposures, and identifying gene variants that influence sensitivity to toxicity and disease states. Conclusions: These new resources offer substantial advances to classical toxicity testing paradigms by including genetically sensitive individuals that may inform toxicity risks for sensitive subpopulations. Both in vivo and complementary in vitro resources provide platforms with which to reduce uncertainty by providing population-level data around biological variability. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP1274 PMID:28886592

COMPUTATIONAL RESOURCES FOR BIOFUEL FEEDSTOCK SPECIES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Buell, Carol Robin; Childs, Kevin L

2013-05-07

While current production of ethanol as a biofuel relies on starch and sugar inputs, it is anticipated that sustainable production of ethanol for biofuel use will utilize lignocellulosic feedstocks. Candidate plant species to be used for lignocellulosic ethanol production include a large number of species within the Grass, Pine and Birch plant families. For these biofuel feedstock species, there are variable amounts of genome sequence resources available, ranging from complete genome sequences (e.g. sorghum, poplar) to transcriptome data sets (e.g. switchgrass, pine). These data sets are not only dispersed in location but also disparate in content. It will be essentialmore » to leverage and improve these genomic data sets for the improvement of biofuel feedstock production. The objectives of this project were to provide computational tools and resources for data-mining genome sequence/annotation and large-scale functional genomic datasets available for biofuel feedstock species. We have created a Bioenergy Feedstock Genomics Resource that provides a web-based portal or clearing house for genomic data for plant species relevant to biofuel feedstock production. Sequence data from a total of 54 plant species are included in the Bioenergy Feedstock Genomics Resource including model plant species that permit leveraging of knowledge across taxa to biofuel feedstock species.We have generated additional computational analyses of these data, including uniform annotation, to facilitate genomic approaches to improved biofuel feedstock production. These data have been centralized in the publicly available Bioenergy Feedstock Genomics Resource (http://bfgr.plantbiology.msu.edu/).« less

Culture, hydrology, and other situational controls on atoll freshwater availability (Majuro, Republic of the Marshall Islands)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shuster, W.

2016-12-01

The comparatively uncertain rainfall catch and rising seas in isolated North Pacific atoll communities has presented serious challenges to maintain human communities with freshwater volume. Moreover, the feudal hierarchy, which structures social and economic relationships among local governance and citizens contributes equally to problems and potential solutions. These relationships modulate the availability of critical ecosystem services generated by freshwater, with additional constraints contributed by climate change, rainfall variability (e.g., current El Niño climate pattern), and continuous threat of drought. The major freshwater resources for an atoll are the groundwater freshwater lens, residential and commercial rainwater harvesting, large-scale rainfall catchments (e.g., an airport runway), imported-virtual water, or desalinization subsidies. The significance of each of these resources scale across different atolls according to size, topography, soils, population, infrastructure, and land ownership. The potential integration and coordination of these water resources is largely unrealized due to land ownership, the lack of a contiguous catchment area, uneven and fractured governance. The situational aspects are further characterized by feuding among families and communities (some resource rich, some resource poor), and conflicting land use priorities where agriculture placement and practice can compromise the quality of already limited freshwater resources. This presentation uses the example of Majuro atoll (Republic of the Marshall Islands), field data and other observations, to illustrate sociohydrologic-drivers of freshwater availability, and suggests approaches that may improve on current and ongoing threats to public health and well-being.

Stress Testing Water Resource Systems at Regional and National Scales with Synthetic Drought Event Sets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hall, J. W.; Mortazavi-Naeini, M.; Coxon, G.; Guillod, B. P.; Allen, M. R.

2017-12-01

Water resources systems can fail to deliver the services required by water users (and deprive the environment of flow requirements) in many different ways. In an attempt to make systems more resilient, they have also been made more complex, for example through a growing number of large-scale transfers, optimized storages and reuse plants. These systems may be vulnerable to complex variants of hydrological variability in space and time, and behavioural adaptations by water users. In previous research we have used non-parametric stochastic streamflow generators to test the vulnerability of water resource systems. Here we use a very large ensemble of regional climate model outputs from the weather@home crowd-sourced citizen science project, which has generated more than 30,000 years of synthetic weather for present and future climates in the UK and western Europe, using the HadAM3P regional climate model. These simulations have been constructed in order to preserve prolonged drought characteristics, through treatment of long-memory processes in ocean circulations and soil moisture. The weather simulations have been propagated through the newly developed DynaTOP national hydrological for Britain, in order to provide low flow simulations at points of water withdrawal for public water supply, energy and agricultural abstractors. We have used the WATHNET water resource simulation model, set up for the Thames Basin and for all of the large water resource zones in England, to simulate the frequency, severity and duration of water shortages in all of these synthetic weather conditions. In particular, we have sought to explore systemic vulnerabilities associated with inter-basin transfers and the trade-offs between different water users. This analytical capability is providing the basis for (i) implementation of the Duty of Resilience, which has been placed upon the water industry in the 2014 Water Act and (ii) testing reformed abstraction arrangements which the UK government is committed to implementing.

Adaptation of water resource systems to an uncertain future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walsh, Claire L.; Blenkinsop, Stephen; Fowler, Hayley J.; Burton, Aidan; Dawson, Richard J.; Glenis, Vassilis; Manning, Lucy J.; Jahanshahi, Golnaz; Kilsby, Chris G.

2016-05-01

Globally, water resources management faces significant challenges from changing climate and growing populations. At local scales, the information provided by climate models is insufficient to support the water sector in making future adaptation decisions. Furthermore, projections of change in local water resources are wrought with uncertainties surrounding natural variability, future greenhouse gas emissions, model structure, population growth, and water consumption habits. To analyse the magnitude of these uncertainties, and their implications for local-scale water resource planning, we present a top-down approach for testing climate change adaptation options using probabilistic climate scenarios and demand projections. An integrated modelling framework is developed which implements a new, gridded spatial weather generator, coupled with a rainfall-runoff model and water resource management simulation model. We use this to provide projections of the number of days and associated uncertainty that will require implementation of demand saving measures such as hose pipe bans and drought orders. Results, which are demonstrated for the Thames Basin, UK, indicate existing water supplies are sensitive to a changing climate and an increasing population, and that the frequency of severe demand saving measures are projected to increase. Considering both climate projections and population growth, the median number of drought order occurrences may increase 5-fold by the 2050s. The effectiveness of a range of demand management and supply options have been tested and shown to provide significant benefits in terms of reducing the number of demand saving days. A decrease in per capita demand of 3.75 % reduces the median frequency of drought order measures by 50 % by the 2020s. We found that increased supply arising from various adaptation options may compensate for increasingly variable flows; however, without reductions in overall demand for water resources such options will be insufficient on their own to adapt to uncertainties in the projected changes in climate and population. For example, a 30 % reduction in overall demand by 2050 has a greater impact on reducing the frequency of drought orders than any of the individual or combinations of supply options; hence, a portfolio of measures is required.

Electricity market design for generator revenue sufficiency with increased variable generation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Levin, Todd; Botterud, Audun

Here, we present a computationally efficient mixed-integer program (MIP) that determines optimal generator expansion decisions, and hourly unit commitment and dispatch in a power system. The impact of increasing wind power capacity on the optimal generation mix and generator profitability is analyzed for a test case that approximates the electricity market in Texas (ERCOT). We analyze three market policies that may support resource adequacy: Operating Reserve Demand Curves (ORDC), Fixed Reserve Scarcity Prices (FRSP) and fixed capacity payments (CP). Optimal expansion plans are comparable between the ORDC and FRSP implementations, while capacity payments may result in additional new capacity. Themore » FRSP policy leads to frequent reserves scarcity events and corresponding price spikes, while the ORDC implementation results in more continuous energy prices. Average energy prices decrease with increasing wind penetration under all policies, as do revenues for baseload and wind generators. Intermediate and peak load plants benefit from higher reserve prices and are less exposed to reduced energy prices. All else equal, an ORDC approach may be preferred to FRSP as it results in similar expansion and revenues with less extreme energy prices. A fixed CP leads to additional new flexible NGCT units, but lower profits for other technologies.« less

Electricity market design for generator revenue sufficiency with increased variable generation

DOE PAGES

Levin, Todd; Botterud, Audun

2015-10-01

Here, we present a computationally efficient mixed-integer program (MIP) that determines optimal generator expansion decisions, and hourly unit commitment and dispatch in a power system. The impact of increasing wind power capacity on the optimal generation mix and generator profitability is analyzed for a test case that approximates the electricity market in Texas (ERCOT). We analyze three market policies that may support resource adequacy: Operating Reserve Demand Curves (ORDC), Fixed Reserve Scarcity Prices (FRSP) and fixed capacity payments (CP). Optimal expansion plans are comparable between the ORDC and FRSP implementations, while capacity payments may result in additional new capacity. Themore » FRSP policy leads to frequent reserves scarcity events and corresponding price spikes, while the ORDC implementation results in more continuous energy prices. Average energy prices decrease with increasing wind penetration under all policies, as do revenues for baseload and wind generators. Intermediate and peak load plants benefit from higher reserve prices and are less exposed to reduced energy prices. All else equal, an ORDC approach may be preferred to FRSP as it results in similar expansion and revenues with less extreme energy prices. A fixed CP leads to additional new flexible NGCT units, but lower profits for other technologies.« less

Resource utilization model for the algorithm to architecture mapping model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stoughton, John W.; Patel, Rakesh R.

1993-01-01

The analytical model for resource utilization and the variable node time and conditional node model for the enhanced ATAMM model for a real-time data flow architecture are presented in this research. The Algorithm To Architecture Mapping Model, ATAMM, is a Petri net based graph theoretic model developed at Old Dominion University, and is capable of modeling the execution of large-grained algorithms on a real-time data flow architecture. Using the resource utilization model, the resource envelope may be obtained directly from a given graph and, consequently, the maximum number of required resources may be evaluated. The node timing diagram for one iteration period may be obtained using the analytical resource envelope. The variable node time model, which describes the change in resource requirement for the execution of an algorithm under node time variation, is useful to expand the applicability of the ATAMM model to heterogeneous architectures. The model also describes a method of detecting the presence of resource limited mode and its subsequent prevention. Graphs with conditional nodes are shown to be reduced to equivalent graphs with time varying nodes and, subsequently, may be analyzed using the variable node time model to determine resource requirements. Case studies are performed on three graphs for the illustration of applicability of the analytical theories.

30 CFR 1206.352 - How do I calculate the royalty due on geothermal resources used for commercial production or...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... geothermal resources used for commercial production or generation of electricity? 1206.352 Section 1206.352... geothermal resources used for commercial production or generation of electricity? (a) If you sold geothermal... electricity, then the royalty on the geothermal resources is the gross proceeds accruing to you from the sale...

Consumer-resource interactions and the evolution of migration.

PubMed

Drown, Devin M; Dybdahl, Mark F; Gomulkiewicz, Richard

2013-11-01

Theoretical studies have demonstrated that selection will favor increased migration when fitnesses vary both temporally and spatially, but it is far from clear how pervasive those theoretical conditions are in nature. Although consumer-resource interactions are omnipresent in nature and can generate spatial and temporal variation, it is unknown even in theory whether these dynamics favor the evolution of migration. We develop a mathematical model to address whether and how migration evolves when variability in fitness is determined at least in part by consumer-resource coevolutionary interactions. Our analyses show that such interactions can drive the evolution of migration in the resource, consumer, or both species and thus supplies a general explanation for the pervasiveness of migration. Over short time scales, we show the direction of change in migration rate is determined primarily by the state of local adaptation of the species involved: rates increase when a species is locally maladapted and decrease when locally adapted. Our results reveal that long-term evolutionary trends in migration rates can differ dramatically depending on the strength or weakness of interspecific interactions and suggest an explanation for the evolutionary divergence of migration rates among interacting species. © 2013 The Author(s). Evolution © 2013 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Biometric Methods for Secure Communications in Body Sensor Networks: Resource-Efficient Key Management and Signal-Level Data Scrambling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bui, Francis Minhthang; Hatzinakos, Dimitrios

2007-12-01

As electronic communications become more prevalent, mobile and universal, the threats of data compromises also accordingly loom larger. In the context of a body sensor network (BSN), which permits pervasive monitoring of potentially sensitive medical data, security and privacy concerns are particularly important. It is a challenge to implement traditional security infrastructures in these types of lightweight networks since they are by design limited in both computational and communication resources. A key enabling technology for secure communications in BSN's has emerged to be biometrics. In this work, we present two complementary approaches which exploit physiological signals to address security issues: (1) a resource-efficient key management system for generating and distributing cryptographic keys to constituent sensors in a BSN; (2) a novel data scrambling method, based on interpolation and random sampling, that is envisioned as a potential alternative to conventional symmetric encryption algorithms for certain types of data. The former targets the resource constraints in BSN's, while the latter addresses the fuzzy variability of biometric signals, which has largely precluded the direct application of conventional encryption. Using electrocardiogram (ECG) signals as biometrics, the resulting computer simulations demonstrate the feasibility and efficacy of these methods for delivering secure communications in BSN's.

Impact of culture on commitment, satisfaction, and extra-role behaviors among Canadian ER physicians.

PubMed

Williams, E S; Rondeau, K V; Francescutti, L H

2007-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to explore the impact of hospital emergency department culture on the job satisfaction, patient commitment, and extra-role performance of Canadian emergency physicians. The conceptual model related four cultural archetypes from the competing valued model to the three outcome variables. In total, 428 Canadian emergency physicians responded to a national survey. The conceptual model was tested via structural equation modeling via LISREL 8. Culture had a relatively weak impact on the outcomes. Human resources culture related positively to job satisfaction while bureaucratic culture related positively to patient commitment. Patient commitment, but not job satisfaction strongly and positively related to extra-role behavior. A direct relationship between entrepreneurial culture and extra-role behavior emerged from an extended analysis. Organizational culture seems to have more distal relationships with outcome variables and its influence is likely to be mediated by more proximal workplace variables. Of value by showing that a key modern leadership challenge is to create the kind of work culture that can become a source of competitive advantage through generating particular organizational outcomes valued by stakeholders.

Scale Resistant Heat Exchanger for Low Temperature Geothermal Binary Cycle Power Plant

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hays, Lance G.

2014-11-18

Phase 1 of the investigation of improvements to low temperature geothermal power systems was completed. The improvements considered were reduction of scaling in heat exchangers and a hermetic turbine generator (eliminating seals, seal system, gearbox, and lube oil system). A scaling test system with several experiments was designed and operated at Coso geothermal resource with brine having a high scaling potential. Several methods were investigated at the brine temperature of 235 ºF. One method, circulation of abradable balls through the brine passages, was found to substantially reduce scale deposits. The test heat exchanger was operated with brine outlet temperatures asmore » low as 125 ºF, which enables increased heat input available to power conversion systems. For advanced low temperature cycles, such as the Variable Phase Cycle (VPC) or Kalina Cycle, the lower brine temperature will result in a 20-30% increase in power production from low temperature resources. A preliminary design of an abradable ball system (ABS) was done for the heat exchanger of the 1 megawatt VPC system at Coso resource. The ABS will be installed and demonstrated in Phase 2 of this project, increasing the power production above that possible with the present 175 ºF brine outlet limit. A hermetic turbine generator (TGH) was designed and manufacturing drawings produced. This unit will use the working fluid (R134a) to lubricate the bearings and cool the generator. The 200 kW turbine directly drives the generator, eliminating a gearbox and lube oil system. Elimination of external seals eliminates the potential of leakage of the refrigerant or hydrocarbon working fluids, resulting in environmental improvement. A similar design has been demonstrated by Energent in an ORC waste heat recovery system. The existing VPC power plant at Coso was modified to enable the “piggyback” demonstration of the TGH. The existing heat exchanger, pumps, and condenser will be operated to provide the required process conditions for the TGH demonstration. Operation of the TGH with and without the ABS system will demonstrate an increase in geothermal resource productivity for the VPC from 1 MW/(million lb) of brine to 1.75 MW/(million lb) of brine, a 75% increase.« less

“More bang for the buck”: exploring optimal approaches for guideline implementation through interviews with international developers

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Population based studies show that guidelines are underused. Surveys of international guideline developers found that many do not implement their guidelines. The purpose of this research was to interview guideline developers about implementation approaches and resources. Methods Semi-structured telephone interviews were conducted with representatives of guideline development agencies identified in the National Guideline Clearinghouse and sampled by country, type of developer, and guideline clinical indication. Participants were asked to comment on the benefits and resource implications of three approaches for guideline implementation that varied by responsibility: developers, intermediaries, or users. Results Thirty individuals from seven countries were interviewed, representing government (n = 12) and professional (n = 18) organizations that produced guidelines for a variety of clinical indications. Organizations with an implementation mandate featured widely inconsistent funding and staffing models, variable approaches for choosing promotional strategies, and an array of dissemination activities. When asked to choose a preferred approach, most participants selected the option of including information within guidelines that would help users to implement them. Given variable mandate and resources for implementation, it was considered the most feasible approach, and therefore most likely to have impact due to potentially broad use. Conclusions While implementation approaches and strategies need not be standardized across organizations, the findings may be used by health care policy makers and managers, and guideline developers to generate strategic and operational plans that optimize implementation capacity. Further research is needed to examine how to optimize implementation capacity by guideline developers, intermediaries and users. PMID:23153052

Quantum-Enhanced Sensing Based on Time Reversal of Nonlinear Dynamics.

PubMed

Linnemann, D; Strobel, H; Muessel, W; Schulz, J; Lewis-Swan, R J; Kheruntsyan, K V; Oberthaler, M K

2016-07-01

We experimentally demonstrate a nonlinear detection scheme exploiting time-reversal dynamics that disentangles continuous variable entangled states for feasible readout. Spin-exchange dynamics of Bose-Einstein condensates is used as the nonlinear mechanism which not only generates entangled states but can also be time reversed by controlled phase imprinting. For demonstration of a quantum-enhanced measurement we construct an active atom SU(1,1) interferometer, where entangled state preparation and nonlinear readout both consist of parametric amplification. This scheme is capable of exhausting the quantum resource by detecting solely mean atom numbers. Controlled nonlinear transformations widen the spectrum of useful entangled states for applied quantum technologies.

Advanced Methods for Incorporating Solar Energy Technologies into Electric Sector Capacity-Expansion Models: Literature Review and Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sullivan, P.; Eurek, K.; Margolis, R.

2014-07-01

Because solar power is a rapidly growing component of the electricity system, robust representations of solar technologies should be included in capacity-expansion models. This is a challenge because modeling the electricity system--and, in particular, modeling solar integration within that system--is a complex endeavor. This report highlights the major challenges of incorporating solar technologies into capacity-expansion models and shows examples of how specific models address those challenges. These challenges include modeling non-dispatchable technologies, determining which solar technologies to model, choosing a spatial resolution, incorporating a solar resource assessment, and accounting for solar generation variability and uncertainty.

Managing living marine resources in a dynamic environment: The role of seasonal to decadal climate forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tommasi, Desiree; Stock, Charles A.; Hobday, Alistair J.; Methot, Rick; Kaplan, Isaac C.; Eveson, J. Paige; Holsman, Kirstin; Miller, Timothy J.; Gaichas, Sarah; Gehlen, Marion; Pershing, Andrew; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Msadek, Rym; Delworth, Tom; Eakin, C. Mark; Haltuch, Melissa A.; Séférian, Roland; Spillman, Claire M.; Hartog, Jason R.; Siedlecki, Samantha; Samhouri, Jameal F.; Muhling, Barbara; Asch, Rebecca G.; Pinsky, Malin L.; Saba, Vincent S.; Kapnick, Sarah B.; Gaitan, Carlos F.; Rykaczewski, Ryan R.; Alexander, Michael A.; Xue, Yan; Pegion, Kathleen V.; Lynch, Patrick; Payne, Mark R.; Kristiansen, Trond; Lehodey, Patrick; Werner, Francisco E.

2017-03-01

Recent developments in global dynamical climate prediction systems have allowed for skillful predictions of climate variables relevant to living marine resources (LMRs) at a scale useful to understanding and managing LMRs. Such predictions present opportunities for improved LMR management and industry operations, as well as new research avenues in fisheries science. LMRs respond to climate variability via changes in physiology and behavior. For species and systems where climate-fisheries links are well established, forecasted LMR responses can lead to anticipatory and more effective decisions, benefitting both managers and stakeholders. Here, we provide an overview of climate prediction systems and advances in seasonal to decadal prediction of marine-resource relevant environmental variables. We then describe a range of climate-sensitive LMR decisions that can be taken at lead-times of months to decades, before highlighting a range of pioneering case studies using climate predictions to inform LMR decisions. The success of these case studies suggests that many additional applications are possible. Progress, however, is limited by observational and modeling challenges. Priority developments include strengthening of the mechanistic linkages between climate and marine resource responses, development of LMR models able to explicitly represent such responses, integration of climate driven LMR dynamics in the multi-driver context within which marine resources exist, and improved prediction of ecosystem-relevant variables at the fine regional scales at which most marine resource decisions are made. While there are fundamental limits to predictability, continued advances in these areas have considerable potential to make LMR managers and industry decision more resilient to climate variability and help sustain valuable resources. Concerted dialog between scientists, LMR managers and industry is essential to realizing this potential.

Climate Controls AM Fungal Distributions from Global to Local Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kivlin, S. N.; Hawkes, C.; Muscarella, R.; Treseder, K. K.; Kazenel, M.; Lynn, J.; Rudgers, J.

2016-12-01

Arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi have key functions in terrestrial biogeochemical processes; thus, determining the relative importance of climate, edaphic factors, and plant community composition on their geographic distributions can improve predictions of their sensitivity to global change. Local adaptation by AM fungi to plant hosts, soil nutrients, and climate suggests that all of these factors may control fungal geographic distributions, but their relative importance is unknown. We created species distribution models for 142 AM fungal taxa at the global scale with data from GenBank. We compared climate variables (BioClim and soil moisture), edaphic variables (phosphorus, carbon, pH, and clay content), and plant variables using model selection on models with (1) all variables, (2) climatic variables only (including soil moisture) and (3) resource-related variables only (all other soil parameters and NPP) using the MaxEnt algorithm evaluated with ENMEval. We also evaluated whether drivers of AM fungal distributions were phylogenetically conserved. To test whether global correlates of AM fungal distributions were reflected at local scales, we then surveyed AM fungi in nine plant hosts along three elevation gradients in the Upper Gunnison Basin, Colorado, USA. At the global scale, the distributions of 55% of AM fungal taxa were affected by both climate and soil resources, whereas 16% were only affected by climate and 29% were only affected by soil resources. Even for AM fungi that were affected by both climate and resources, the effects of climatic variables nearly always outweighed those of resources. Soil moisture and isothermality were the main climatic and NPP and soil carbon the main resource related factors influencing AM fungal distributions. Distributions of closely related AM fungal taxa were similarly affected by climate, but not by resources. Local scale surveys of AM fungi across elevations confirmed that climate was a key driver of AM fungal composition and root colonization, with weaker influences of plant identity and soil nutrients. These two studies across scales suggest prevailing effects of climate on AM fungal distributions. Thus, incorporating climate when forecasting future ranges of AM fungi will enhance predictions of AM fungal abundance and associated ecosystem functions.

Gaussian interferometric power and Black box estimation of Unruh temperature

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Jieci, E-mail: jcwang@hunnu.edu.cn; Beijing National Laboratory for Condensed Matter Physics, Institute of Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190; Cao, Haixin

2016-10-15

We present a black box estimation paradigm of Unruh temperature in a relativistic bosonic continuous-variable setting. It is shown that the guaranteed precision for the estimation of Unruh temperature can be evaluated by the Gaussian interferometric power for a given probe state. We demonstrate that the amount of interferometric power is always beyond the entanglement type quantum correlations in a relativistic setting. It is found that due to the fact that Unruh radiation acts as a thermal bath on the probe system, it destroys available resources of the probe system and reduces the guaranteed precision of the estimation of Unruhmore » temperature. We also find that the thermal noise induced by Unruh effect will generate interferometric power between accelerated Bob and his auxiliary partner anti-Bob, while it does not generate any correlation between inertial Alice and anti-Bob.« less

First Steps in the Smart Grid Framework: An Optimal and Feasible Pathway Toward Power System Reform in Mexico

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bracho, Riccardo; Linvill, Carl; Sedano, Richard

With the vision to transform the power sector, Mexico included in the new laws and regulations deployment of smart grid technologies and provided various attributes to the Ministry of Energy and the Energy Regulatory Commission to enact public policies and regulation. The use of smart grid technologies can have a significant impact on the integration of variable renewable energy resources while maintaining reliability and stability of the system, significantly reducing technical and non-technical electricity losses in the grid, improving cyber security, and allowing consumers to make distributed generation and demand response decisions. This report describes for Mexico's Ministry of Energymore » (SENER) an overall approach (Optimal Feasible Pathway) for moving forward with smart grid policy development in Mexico to enable increasing electric generation from renewable energy in a way that optimizes system stability and reliability in an efficient and cost-effective manner.« less

Characterizing and Modeling the Cost of Rework in a Library of Reusable Software Components

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Basili, Victor R.; Condon, Steven E.; ElEmam, Khaled; Hendrick, Robert B.; Melo, Walcelio

1997-01-01

In this paper we characterize and model the cost of rework in a Component Factory (CF) organization. A CF is responsible for developing and packaging reusable software components. Data was collected on corrective maintenance activities for the Generalized Support Software reuse asset library located at the Flight Dynamics Division of NASA's GSFC. We then constructed a predictive model of the cost of rework using the C4.5 system for generating a logical classification model. The predictor variables for the model are measures of internal software product attributes. The model demonstrates good prediction accuracy, and can be used by managers to allocate resources for corrective maintenance activities. Furthermore, we used the model to generate proscriptive coding guidelines to improve programming, practices so that the cost of rework can be reduced in the future. The general approach we have used is applicable to other environments.

Multi-Megawatt-Scale Power-Hardware-in-the-Loop Interface for Testing Ancillary Grid Services by Converter-Coupled Generation: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Koralewicz, Przemyslaw J; Gevorgian, Vahan; Wallen, Robert B

Power-hardware-in-the-loop (PHIL) is a simulation tool that can support electrical systems engineers in the development and experimental validation of novel, advanced control schemes that ensure the robustness and resiliency of electrical grids that have high penetrations of low-inertia variable renewable resources. With PHIL, the impact of the device under test on a generation or distribution system can be analyzed using a real-time simulator (RTS). PHIL allows for the interconnection of the RTS with a 7 megavolt ampere (MVA) power amplifier to test multi-megawatt renewable assets available at the National Wind Technology Center (NWTC). This paper addresses issues related to themore » development of a PHIL interface that allows testing hardware devices at actual scale. In particular, the novel PHIL interface algorithm and high-speed digital interface, which minimize the critical loop delay, are discussed.« less

Multi-Megawatt-Scale Power-Hardware-in-the-Loop Interface for Testing Ancillary Grid Services by Converter-Coupled Generation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Koralewicz, Przemyslaw J; Gevorgian, Vahan; Wallen, Robert B

Power-hardware-in-the-loop (PHIL) is a simulation tool that can support electrical systems engineers in the development and experimental validation of novel, advanced control schemes that ensure the robustness and resiliency of electrical grids that have high penetrations of low-inertia variable renewable resources. With PHIL, the impact of the device under test on a generation or distribution system can be analyzed using a real-time simulator (RTS). PHIL allows for the interconnection of the RTS with a 7 megavolt ampere (MVA) power amplifier to test multi-megawatt renewable assets available at the National Wind Technology Center (NWTC). This paper addresses issues related to themore » development of a PHIL interface that allows testing hardware devices at actual scale. In particular, the novel PHIL interface algorithm and high-speed digital interface, which minimize the critical loop delay, are discussed.« less

Development of single-copy nuclear intron markers for species-level phylogenetics: Case study with Paullinieae (Sapindaceae).

PubMed

Chery, Joyce G; Sass, Chodon; Specht, Chelsea D

2017-09-01

We developed a bioinformatic pipeline that leverages a publicly available genome and published transcriptomes to design primers in conserved coding sequences flanking targeted introns of single-copy nuclear loci. Paullinieae (Sapindaceae) is used to demonstrate the pipeline. Transcriptome reads phylogenetically closer to the lineage of interest are aligned to the closest genome. Single-nucleotide polymorphisms are called, generating a "pseudoreference" closer to the lineage of interest. Several filters are applied to meet the criteria of single-copy nuclear loci with introns of a desired size. Primers are designed in conserved coding sequences flanking introns. Using this pipeline, we developed nine single-copy nuclear intron markers for Paullinieae. This pipeline is highly flexible and can be used for any group with available genomic and transcriptomic resources. This pipeline led to the development of nine variable markers for phylogenetic study without generating sequence data de novo.

Analysis of geologic terrain models for determination of optimum SAR sensor configuration and optimum information extraction for exploration of global non-renewable resources. Pilot study: Arkansas Remote Sensing Laboratory, part 1, part 2, and part 3

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kaupp, V. H.; Macdonald, H. C.; Waite, W. P.; Stiles, J. A.; Frost, F. S.; Shanmugam, K. S.; Smith, S. A.; Narayanan, V.; Holtzman, J. C. (Principal Investigator)

1982-01-01

Computer-generated radar simulations and mathematical geologic terrain models were used to establish the optimum radar sensor operating parameters for geologic research. An initial set of mathematical geologic terrain models was created for three basic landforms and families of simulated radar images were prepared from these models for numerous interacting sensor, platform, and terrain variables. The tradeoffs between the various sensor parameters and the quantity and quality of the extractable geologic data were investigated as well as the development of automated techniques of digital SAR image analysis. Initial work on a texture analysis of SEASAT SAR imagery is reported. Computer-generated radar simulations are shown for combinations of two geologic models and three SAR angles of incidence.

A social systems model of nursing home use.

PubMed Central

Wolf, R S

1978-01-01

Causal modeling (path analysis) was applied to data from the 39 mental health catchment areas of Massachusetts to analyze the effects of sociocultural and health-resource variables on long-term-care utilization. The variables chosen explained 53 percent of the variance of long-term-care use by persons 60 and older: 41 percent was explained by the sociocultural variables and 12 percent by the health-resource variables. With data adjusted for age, the major determinant of long-term-care use was ethnicity: less long-term care was used in areas with more persons who were foreign-born or had a foreign-born parent. The effects of other health resources (supply of primary care physicians and use of mental and general (short-term) hospitals) were small and negative. PMID:418027

The Value of CO2-Geothermal Bulk Energy Storage to Reducing CO2 Emissions Compared to Conventional Bulk Energy Storage Technologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ogland-Hand, J.; Bielicki, J. M.; Buscheck, T. A.

2016-12-01

Sedimentary basin geothermal resources and CO2 that is captured from large point sources can be used for bulk energy storage (BES) in order to accommodate higher penetration and utilization of variable renewable energy resources. Excess energy is stored by pressurizing and injecting CO2 into deep, porous, and permeable aquifers that are ubiquitous throughout the United States. When electricity demand exceeds supply, some of the pressurized and geothermally-heated CO2 can be produced and used to generate electricity. This CO2-BES approach reduces CO2 emissions directly by storing CO2 and indirectly by using some of that CO2 to time-shift over-generation and displace CO2 emissions from fossil-fueled power plants that would have otherwise provided electricity. As such, CO2-BES may create more value to regional electricity systems than conventional pumped hydro energy storage (PHES) or compressed air energy storage (CAES) approaches that may only create value by time-shifting energy and indirectly reducing CO2 emissions. We developed and implemented a method to estimate the value that BES has to reducing CO2 emissions from regional electricity systems. The method minimizes the dispatch of electricity system components to meet exogenous demand subject to various CO2 prices, so that the value of CO2 emissions reductions can be estimated. We applied this method to estimate the performance and value of CO2-BES, PHES, and CAES within real data for electricity systems in California and Texas over the course of a full year to account for seasonal fluctuations in electricity demand and variable renewable resource availability. Our results suggest that the value of CO2-BES to reducing CO2 emissions may be as much as twice that of PHES or CAES and thus CO2-BES may be a more favorable approach to energy storage in regional electricity systems, especially those where the topography is not amenable to PHES or the subsurface is not amenable to CAES.

Socio-hydrologic Modeling to Understand and Mediate the Competition for Water between Humans and Ecosystems: Murrumbidgee River Basin, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Emmerik, Tim; Sivapalan, Murugesu; Li, Zheng; Pande, Saket; Savenije, Hubert

2014-05-01

Around the world the demand for water resources is growing in order to satisfy rapidly increasing human populations, leading to competition for water between humans and ecosystems. An entirely new and comprehensive quantitative framework is needed to establish a holistic understanding of that competition, thereby enabling development and evaluation of effective mediation strategies. We present a case study centered on the Murrumbidgee river basin in eastern Australia that illustrates the dynamics of the balance between water extraction and use for food production and efforts to mitigate and reverse consequent degradation of the riparian environment. Interactions between patterns of water resources management and climate driven hydrological variability within the prevailing socio-economic environment have contributed to the emergence of new whole system dynamics over the last 100 years. In particular, data analysis reveals a pendulum swing between an exclusive focus on agricultural development and food production in the initial stages of water resources development and its attendant socio-economic benefits, followed by the gradual realization of the adverse environmental impacts, efforts to mitigate these with the use of remedial measures, and ultimately concerted efforts and externally imposed solutions to restore environmental health and ecosystem services. A quasi-distributed coupled socio-hydrologic system model that explicitly includes the two-way coupling between human and hydrological systems, including evolution of human values/norms relating to water and the environment, is able to mimic broad features of this pendulum swing. The model consists of coupled nonlinear differential equations that include four state variables describing the co-evolution of storage capacity, irrigated area, human population, and ecosystem health, which are all connected by feedback mechanisms. The model is used to generate insights into the dominant controls of the trajectory of co-evolution of the coupled human-water system, to serve as the theoretical framework for more detailed analysis of the system, and to generate organizing principles that may be transferable to other systems in different climatic and socio-economic settings.

Thermodynamics Analysis of Binary Plant Generating Power from Low-Temperature Geothermal Resource

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maksuwan, A.

2018-05-01

The purpose in this research was to predict tendency of increase Carnot efficiency of the binary plant generating power from low-temperature geothermal resource. Low-temperature geothermal resources or less, are usually exploited by means of binary-type energy conversion systems. The maximum efficiency is analyzed for electricity production of the binary plant generating power from low-temperature geothermal resource becomes important. By using model of the heat exchanger equivalent to a power plant together with the calculation of the combined heat and power (CHP) generation. The CHP was solved in detail with appropriate boundary originating an idea from the effect of temperature of source fluid inlet-outlet and cooling fluid supply. The Carnot efficiency from the CHP calculation was compared between condition of increase temperature of source fluid inlet-outlet and decrease temperature of cooling fluid supply. Result in this research show that the Carnot efficiency for binary plant generating power from low-temperature geothermal resource has tendency increase by decrease temperature of cooling fluid supply.

A conceptual framework for evaluating variable speed generator options for wind energy applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reddoch, T. W.; Lipo, T. A.; Hinrichsen, E. N.; Hudson, T. L.; Thomas, R. J.

1995-01-01

Interest in variable speed generating technology has accelerated as greater emphasis on overall efficiency and superior dynamic and control properties in wind-electric generating systems are sought. This paper reviews variable speed technology options providing advantages and disadvantages of each. Furthermore, the dynamic properties of variable speed systems are contrasted with synchronous operation. Finally, control properties of variable speed systems are examined.

Miscarriage: A Special Type of Family Crisis.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Day, Randal D.; Hooks, Daniel

1987-01-01

Surveyed 102 women about their experience with miscarriage. Found that family resource variables were a much stronger predictor of level of crisis and recovery than were personal or community resource variables. Adaptation and cohesion were significant predictors of speed or recovery and level of crisis, respectively. (Author/NB)

First-graders' allocation of attentional resources in an emotional Stroop task: The role of heart period variability and classroom climate.

PubMed

Scrimin, Sara; Moscardino, Ughetta; Mason, Lucia

2018-06-11

Children's ability to remain focused on a task despite the presence of emotionally salient distractors in the environment is crucial for successful learning and academic performance. This study investigated first-graders' allocation of attentional resources in the presence of distracting emotional, school-related social interaction stimuli. Moreover, we examined whether such attentional processes were influenced by students' self-regulation, as indexed by heart period variability, observed classroom climate, or their interaction. Seventy-two-first graders took part in the study. To assess allocation of attentional resources, students' reaction times on an emotional Stroop task were registered by recording response times to colour frames placed around pictures of distracting emotional, school-related social interaction stimuli (i.e., emotional interference index). Moreover, heart period variability was measured by recording children's electrocardiogram at rest during an individual session, whereas classroom climate was observed during class activities by a trained researcher. Images representing negative social interactions required greater attentional resources than images depicting positive ones. Heart period variability and classroom climate were each significantly and independently associated with the emotional interference index. A significant interaction also emerged, indicating that among children experiencing a negative classroom climate, those who had a higher basal heart period variability (higher self-regulation) were less distracted by negative emotional material and remained more focused on a task compared to those with lower heart period variability (lower self-regulation). Negative interactions require greater attentional resources than positive scenes. Moreover, with a negative classroom climate, higher basal heart period variability is a protective factor. Implications for theory and practice are discussed. © 2018 The British Psychological Society.

Three essays on the effect of wind generation on power system planning and operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, Clay Duane

While the benefits of wind generation are well known, some drawbacks are still being understood as wind power is integrated into the power grid at increasing levels. The primary difference between wind generation and other forms of generation is the intermittent, and somewhat unpredictable, aspect of this resource. The somewhat uncontrollable aspect of wind generation makes it important to consider the relationship between this resource and load, and also how the operation of other non-wind generation resources may be affected. The three essays that comprise this dissertation focus on these and other important issues related to wind generation; leading to an improved understanding of how to better plan for and utilize this resource. The first essay addresses the cost of increased levels of installed wind capacity from both a capacity planning and economic dispatch perspective to arrive at the total system cost of installing a unit of wind capacity. This total includes not only the cost of the wind turbine and associated infrastructure, but also the cost impact an additional unit of wind capacity has on the optimal mix and operation of other generating units in the electricity supply portfolio. The results of the model showed that for all wind expansion scenarios, wind capacity is not cost-effective regardless of the level of the wind production tax credit and carbon prices that were considered. Larger levels of installed wind capacity result in reduced variable cost, but this reduction is not able to offset increases in capital cost, as a unit of installed wind capacity does not result in an equal reduction in other non-wind capacity needs. The second essay develops a methodology to better handle unexpected short term fluctuations in wind generation within the existing power system. The methodology developed in this essay leads to lower expected costs by anticipating and planning for fluctuations in wind generation by focusing on key constraints in the system. The modified methodology achieves expected costs for the UC-ED problem that are as low as the full stochastic model and markedly lower than the deterministic model. The final essay focuses on valuing energy storage located at a wind site through multiple revenue streams, where energy storage is valued from the perspective of a profit maximizing investor. Given the current state of battery storage technology, a battery capacity of zero is optimal in the setting considered in this essay. The results presented in this essay are dependent on a technological breakthrough that substantially reduces battery cost and conclude that allowing battery storage to simultaneously participate in multiple wholesale markets is optimal relative to participating in any one market alone. Also, co-locating battery storage and wind provides value by altering the optimal transmission line capacity to the battery and wind site. This dissertation considers problems of wind integration from an economic perspective and builds on existing work in this area. The economics of wind integration and utilization are important because wind generation levels are already significant and will likely become more so in the future. While this dissertation adds to the existing literature, additional work is needed in this area to ensure wind generation adds as much value to the overall system as possible.

Comparisons of methods for determining dominance rank in male and female prairie voles (Microtus ochrogastor)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lanctot, Richard B.; Best, Louis B.

2000-01-01

Dominance ranks in male and female prairie voles (Microtus ochrogaster) were determined from 6 measurements that mimicked environmental situations that might be encountered by prairie voles in communal groups, including agonistic interactions resulting from competition for food and water and encounters in burrows. Male and female groups of 6 individuals each were tested against one another in pairwise encounters (i.e., dyads) for 5 of the measurements and together as a group in a 6th measurement. Two types of response variables, aggressive behaviors and possession time of a limiting resource, were collected during trials, and those data were used to determine cardinal ranks and principal component ranks for all animals within each group. Cardinal ranks and principal component ranks seldom yielded similar rankings for each animal across measurements. However, dominance measurements that were conducted in similar environmental contexts, regardless of the response variable recorded, ranked animals similarly. Our results suggest that individual dominance measurements assessed situation- or resource-specific responses. Our study demonstrates problems inherent in determining dominance rankings of individuals within groups, including choosing measurements, response variables, and statistical techniques. Researchers should avoid using a single measurement to represent social dominance until they have first demonstrated that a dominance relationship between 2 individuals has been learned (i.e., subsequent interactions show a reduced response rather than an escalation), that this relationship is relatively constant through time, and that the relationship is not context dependent. Such assessments of dominance status between all dyads then can be used to generate dominance rankings within social groups.

Toward hydro-social modeling: Merging human variables and the social sciences with climate-glacier runoff models (Santa River, Peru)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carey, Mark; Baraer, Michel; Mark, Bryan G.; French, Adam; Bury, Jeffrey; Young, Kenneth R.; McKenzie, Jeffrey M.

2014-10-01

Glacier shrinkage caused by climate change is likely to trigger diminished and less consistent stream flow in glacier-fed watersheds worldwide. To understand, model, and adapt to these climate-glacier-water changes, it is vital to integrate the analysis of both water availability (the domain of hydrologists) and water use (the focus for social scientists). Drawn from a case study of the Santa River watershed below Peru’s glaciated Cordillera Blanca mountain range, this paper provides a holistic hydro-social framework that identifies five major human variables critical to hydrological modeling because these forces have profoundly influenced water use over the last 60 years: (1) political agendas and economic development; (2) governance: laws and institutions; (3) technology and engineering; (4) land and resource use; and (5) societal responses. Notable shifts in Santa River water use-including major expansions in hydroelectricity generation, large-scale irrigation projects, and other land and resource-use practices-did not necessarily stem from changing glacier runoff or hydrologic shifts, but rather from these human variables. Ultimately, then, water usage is not predictable based on water availability alone. Glacier runoff conforms to certain expected trends predicted by models of progressively reduced glacier storage. However, societal forces establish the legal, economic, political, cultural, and social drivers that actually shape water usage patterns via human modification of watershed dynamics. This hydro-social framework has widespread implications for hydrological modeling in glaciated watersheds from the Andes and Alps to the Himalaya and Tien Shan, as well as for the development of climate change adaptation plans.

Historical trends in human resource issues of hospital nursing in the past generation.

PubMed

Tzeng, Huey-Ming; Yin, Chang-Yi

2009-01-01

Strategic management of human resource in health care is indeed important to delivering high-quality care. Despite the fact that the nursing profession is growing and becoming more and more sophisticated, human resource issues have not changed in a dramatically significant way in the past generation. The aim of this study was to identify the historical trends in human resource issues related to hospital nursing in the past generation from 1977 to 2006. A total of 10,691 records were reviewed, resulting in 1,799 valid records that addressed human resource issues related to hospital nursing. Content analyses were conducted and a typology of human resource issues was developed. Productivity, work content and flow, and occupational hazards were the three most often reported themes.

Optimized Next-Generation Sequencing Genotype-Haplotype Calling for Genome Variability Analysis

PubMed Central

Navarro, Javier; Nevado, Bruno; Hernández, Porfidio; Vera, Gonzalo; Ramos-Onsins, Sebastián E

2017-01-01

The accurate estimation of nucleotide variability using next-generation sequencing data is challenged by the high number of sequencing errors produced by new sequencing technologies, especially for nonmodel species, where reference sequences may not be available and the read depth may be low due to limited budgets. The most popular single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) callers are designed to obtain a high SNP recovery and low false discovery rate but are not designed to account appropriately the frequency of the variants. Instead, algorithms designed to account for the frequency of SNPs give precise results for estimating the levels and the patterns of variability. These algorithms are focused on the unbiased estimation of the variability and not on the high recovery of SNPs. Here, we implemented a fast and optimized parallel algorithm that includes the method developed by Roesti et al and Lynch, which estimates the genotype of each individual at each site, considering the possibility to call both bases from the genotype, a single one or none. This algorithm does not consider the reference and therefore is independent of biases related to the reference nucleotide specified. The pipeline starts from a BAM file converted to pileup or mpileup format and the software outputs a FASTA file. The new program not only reduces the running times but also, given the improved use of resources, it allows its usage with smaller computers and large parallel computers, expanding its benefits to a wider range of researchers. The output file can be analyzed using software for population genetics analysis, such as the R library PopGenome, the software VariScan, and the program mstatspop for analysis considering positions with missing data. PMID:28894353

Socially cooperative choices: An approach to achieving resource sustainability in the coastal zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crance, Colin; Draper, Dianne

1996-03-01

Achieving resource sustainability, particularly in the coastal zone, is complicated by a variety of interdependencies and trade-offs between economic, social, and ecological variables. Although trade-offs between each of these variables are important, this paper emphasizes the social components of resource management. In this regard a distinction is made between individual and cooperative choices. Individual choices frequently are made from a shortterm, self-interested perspective, whereas cooperative choices are made from a long-term, community and resource-sustainability perspective. Typically, when presented with a spectrum of resource management decisions, individuals have a tendency to act in a self-interested manner. Thus, cooperative benefits, such as reduced conflict and improved resource certainty, are not realized. An overview of selected aspects of social dilemma theory suggests that socially cooperative choice outcomes are attainable in coastal zone management by integrating structural and behavioral solutions in resource use decision making. Three barriers to successful integration of structural and behavioral solutions are identified as self-interest, mistrust, and variable perceptions of resource amenities. Examples from coastal zone management indicate that these barriers may be overcome using approaches such as scopereduction, co-management, community education, and local participation. The paper also provides comment on the potential benefits of integrating structural and behavioral solutions in international coastal zone management efforts.

Generating variable and random schedules of reinforcement using Microsoft Excel macros.

PubMed

Bancroft, Stacie L; Bourret, Jason C

2008-01-01

Variable reinforcement schedules are used to arrange the availability of reinforcement following varying response ratios or intervals of time. Random reinforcement schedules are subtypes of variable reinforcement schedules that can be used to arrange the availability of reinforcement at a constant probability across number of responses or time. Generating schedule values for variable and random reinforcement schedules can be difficult. The present article describes the steps necessary to write macros in Microsoft Excel that will generate variable-ratio, variable-interval, variable-time, random-ratio, random-interval, and random-time reinforcement schedule values.

The contribution of internal resources, external resources, and emotional distress to use of drugs and alcohol among Israeli Jewish urban adolescents.

PubMed

Lipschitz-Elhawi, Racheli; Itzhaky, Haya

2014-03-01

The contribution of selected background variables (age, gender), internal resources (mastery, emotional maturity), external resources (parental and peer support), and emotional distress to alcohol and drug use among 160 Israeli Jewish urban high school students were examined. Analyzing the variables with hierarchical regression, emotional distress contributed most significantly to both alcohol and drug use, and the contribution of age was somewhat less significant for both of them. Emotional distress also contributed indirectly to drug use through an interaction with one's sense of mastery. Gender, internal resources, and external resources contributed differentially to alcohol and drug use. Whereas gender and internal resources contributed only to drug use, external resources contributed only to alcohol use. Specifically, peer support contributed positively to alcohol use whereas parental support contributed negatively. The discussion provides explanations for these research findings and their implications, and the research's limitations are noted.

VARIABLE TIME-INTERVAL GENERATOR

DOEpatents

Gross, J.E.

1959-10-31

This patent relates to a pulse generator and more particularly to a time interval generator wherein the time interval between pulses is precisely determined. The variable time generator comprises two oscillators with one having a variable frequency output and the other a fixed frequency output. A frequency divider is connected to the variable oscillator for dividing its frequency by a selected factor and a counter is used for counting the periods of the fixed oscillator occurring during a cycle of the divided frequency of the variable oscillator. This defines the period of the variable oscillator in terms of that of the fixed oscillator. A circuit is provided for selecting as a time interval a predetermined number of periods of the variable oscillator. The output of the generator consists of a first pulse produced by a trigger circuit at the start of the time interval and a second pulse marking the end of the time interval produced by the same trigger circuit.

Nuclear-Renewable Hybrid Energy Systems: 2016 Technology Development Program Plan

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bragg-Sitton, Shannon M.; Boardman, Richard; Rabiti, Cristian

The United States is in the midst of an energy revolution, spurred by advancement of technology to produce unprecedented supplies of oil and natural gas. Simultaneously, there is an increasing concern for climate change attributed to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that, in large part, result from burning fossil fuels. An international consensus has concluded that the U.S. and other developed nations have an imperative to reduce GHG emissions to address these climate change concerns. The global desire to reduce GHG emissions has led to the development and deployment of clean energy resources and technologies, particularly renewable energy technologies, at amore » rapid rate. At the same time, each of the major energy sectors—the electric grid, industrial manufacturing, transportation, and the residential/commercial consumers— is increasingly becoming linked through information and communications technologies, advanced modeling and simulation, and controls. Coordination of clean energy generation technologies through integrated hybrid energy systems, as defined below, has the potential to further revolutionize energy services at the system level by coordinating the exchange of energy currency among the energy sectors in a manner that optimizes financial efficiency (including capital investments), maximizes thermodynamic efficiency (through best use of exergy, which is the potential to use the available energy in producing energy services), reduces environmental impacts when clean energy inputs are maximized, and provides resources for grid management. Rapid buildout of renewable technologies has been largely driven by local, state, and federal policies, such as renewable portfolio standards and production tax credits that incentivize investment in these generation sources. A foundational assumption within this program plan is that renewable technologies will continue to be major contributors to the future U.S. energy infrastructure. While increased use of clean renewable technologies will aid in achieving reduced GHG emissions, it also presents new challenges to grid management that must be addressed. These challenges primarily derive from the fundamental characteristics of variable renewable generators, such as wind and solar: non-dispatchability, variable production, and reduced electromechanical inertia. This document presents a preliminary research and development (R&D) plan for detailed dynamic simulation and analysis of nuclear-renewable hybrid energy systems (N-R HES), coupled with integrated energy system design, component development, and integrated systems testing. N-R HES are cooperatively-controlled systems that dynamically apportion thermal and/or electrical energy to provide responsive generation to the power grid.« less

Task 2 Report - A GIS-Based Technical Potential Assessment of Domestic Energy Resources for Electricity Generation.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lee, Nathan; Grue, Nicholas W; Rosenlieb, Evan

The purpose of this report is to support the Lao Ministry of Energy and Mines in assessing the technical potential of domestic energy resources for utility scale electricity generation in the Lao PDR. Specifically, this work provides assessments of technical potential, and associated maps of developable areas, for energy technologies of interest. This report details the methodology, assumptions, and datasets employed in this analysis to provide a transparent, replicable process for future analyses. The methodology and results presented are intended to be a fundamental input to subsequent decision making and energy planning-related analyses. This work concentrates on domestic energy resourcesmore » for utility-scale electricity generation and considers solar photovoltaic, wind, biomass, and coal resources. This work does not consider potentially imported energy resources (e.g., natural gas) or domestic energy resources that are not present in sufficient quantity for utility-scale generation (e.g., geothermal resources). A technical potential assessment of hydropower resources is currently not feasible due to the absence of required data including site-level assessments of multiple characteristics (e.g., geology environment and access) as well as spatial data on estimated non-exploited hydropower resources. This report is the second output of the Energy Alternatives Study for the Lao PDR, a collaboration led by the Lao Ministry of Energy and Mines and the United States Agency for International Development under the auspices of the Smart Infrastructure for the Mekong program. The Energy Alternatives Study is composed of five successive tasks that collectively support the project's goals. This work is focused on Task 2 - Assess technical potential of domestic energy resources for electricity generation. The work was carried out by a team from the U.S. Department of Energy's National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) in collaboration with the Lao Ministry of Energy and Mines and other Lao power sector stakeholders. and datasets employed in this analysis to provide a transparent, replicable process for future analyses. The methodology and results presented are intended to be a fundamental input to subsequent decision making and energy planning-related analyses. This work concentrates on domestic energy resources for utility-scale electricity generation and considers solar photovoltaic, wind, biomass, and coal resources. This work does not consider potentially imported energy resources (e.g., natural gas) or domestic energy resources that are not present in sufficient quantity for utility-scale generation (e.g., geothermal resources). A technical potential assessment of hydropower resources is currently not feasible due to the absence of required data including site-level assessments of multiple characteristics (e.g., geology environment and access) as well as spatial data on estimated non-exploited hydropower resources.« less

Understanding Generational Diversity: Strategic Human Resource Management and Development across the Generational "Divide"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Amayah, Angela Titi; Gedro, Julie

2014-01-01

There are more generations in today's workforce than ever before, which has the possibility to create challenges for Human Resource professionals. The purpose of this article is to interrogate existing stereotypes and generalities about the characteristics of different generations with respect to the workplace, and to offer suggestions for…

New Stream-reach Development: A Comprehensive Assessment of Hydropower Energy Potential in the United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kao, Shih-Chieh; McManamay, Ryan A; Stewart, Kevin M

2014-04-01

The rapid development of multiple national geospatial datasets related to topography, hydrology, and environmental characteristics in the past decade have provided new opportunities for the refinement of hydropower resource potential from undeveloped stream-reaches. Through 2011 to 2013, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) was tasked by the Department of Energy (DOE) Water Power Program to evaluate the new stream-reach development (NSD) resource potential for more than 3 million US streams. A methodology was designed that contains three main components: (1) identification of stream-reaches with high energy density, (2) topographical analysis of stream-reaches to estimate inundated surface area and reservoir storage,more » and (3) environmental attribution to spatially join information related to the natural ecological systems, social and cultural settings, policies, management, and legal constraints to stream-reaches of energy potential. An initial report on methodology (Hadjerioua et al., 2013) was later reviewed and revised based on the comments gathered from two peer review workshops. After implementing the assessment across the entire United States, major findings were summarized in this final report. The estimated NSD capacity and generation, including both higher-energy-density (>1 MW per reach) and lower-energy-density (<1 MW per reach) stream-reaches is 84.7 GW, around the same size as the existing US conventional hydropower nameplate capacity (79.5 GW; NHAAP, 2013). In terms of energy, the total undeveloped NSD generation is estimated to be 460 TWh/year, around 169% of average 2002 2011 net annual generation from existing conventional hydropower plants (272 TWh/year; EIA, 2013). Given the run-of-river assumption, NSD stream-reaches have higher capacity factors (53 71%), especially compared with conventional larger-storage peaking-operation projects that usually have capacity factors of around 30%. The highest potential is identified in the Pacific Northwest Region (32%), followed by Missouri Region (15%) and California Region (9%). In terms of states, the highest potential is found in Oregon, Washington, and Idaho, the three states in the Pacific Northwest, followed by California, Alaska, Montana, and Colorado. In addition to the resource potential, abundant environmental attributes were also organized and attributed to the identified stream-reaches to support further hydropower market analysis. The prevalence of environmental variables and proportion of capacity from stream-reaches intersecting environmental variables varied according to hydrologic region. Detailed NSD findings are organized by hydrologic regions and presented in each chapter of this report.« less

The science, information, and engineering needed to manage water availability and quality in 2050: Chapter 23

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hirsch, Robert M.

2012-01-01

This chapter explores four water resources issues: 1) hydrologic variability, hazards, water supply and ecosystem preservation; 2) urban landscape design; 3) non-point source water quality, and 4) climate change, resiliency, and nonstationarity. It also considers what science, technology, and engineering practice may be needed in the coming decades to sustain water supplies and ecosystems in the face of increasing stresses from a growing demand for water. Dealing with these four water resource issues in the highly uncertain future would will demand predictive models that are rooted in real-world data. In a non-stationary world, continuity of observations is crucial. All watersheds are influenced by human actions through changes in land use, water use, and climate. The focus of water planning and management between today and 2050 will depend more than ever on collection and analysis of long-term data to learn about the evolving state of the system, understanding ecosystem processes in the water and on the landscape, and finding innovative ways to manage water as a shared resource. This includes sharing water with our neighbors on the landscape, sharing with the other species that depend on water, and sharing with future generations.

Research on the optoacoustic communication system for speech transmission by variable laser-pulse repetition rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Hongyan; Qiu, Hongbing; He, Ning; Liao, Xin

2018-06-01

For the optoacoustic communication from in-air platforms to submerged apparatus, a method based on speech recognition and variable laser-pulse repetition rates is proposed, which realizes character encoding and transmission for speech. Firstly, the theories and spectrum characteristics of the laser-generated underwater sound are analyzed; and moreover character conversion and encoding for speech as well as the pattern of codes for laser modulation is studied; lastly experiments to verify the system design are carried out. Results show that the optoacoustic system, where laser modulation is controlled by speech-to-character baseband codes, is beneficial to improve flexibility in receiving location for underwater targets as well as real-time performance in information transmission. In the overwater transmitter, a pulse laser is controlled to radiate by speech signals with several repetition rates randomly selected in the range of one to fifty Hz, and then in the underwater receiver laser pulse repetition rate and data can be acquired by the preamble and information codes of the corresponding laser-generated sound. When the energy of the laser pulse is appropriate, real-time transmission for speaker-independent speech can be realized in that way, which solves the problem of underwater bandwidth resource and provides a technical approach for the air-sea communication.

RNA-seq mixology: designing realistic control experiments to compare protocols and analysis methods

PubMed Central

Holik, Aliaksei Z.; Law, Charity W.; Liu, Ruijie; Wang, Zeya; Wang, Wenyi; Ahn, Jaeil; Asselin-Labat, Marie-Liesse; Smyth, Gordon K.

2017-01-01

Abstract Carefully designed control experiments provide a gold standard for benchmarking different genomics research tools. A shortcoming of many gene expression control studies is that replication involves profiling the same reference RNA sample multiple times. This leads to low, pure technical noise that is atypical of regular studies. To achieve a more realistic noise structure, we generated a RNA-sequencing mixture experiment using two cell lines of the same cancer type. Variability was added by extracting RNA from independent cell cultures and degrading particular samples. The systematic gene expression changes induced by this design allowed benchmarking of different library preparation kits (standard poly-A versus total RNA with Ribozero depletion) and analysis pipelines. Data generated using the total RNA kit had more signal for introns and various RNA classes (ncRNA, snRNA, snoRNA) and less variability after degradation. For differential expression analysis, voom with quality weights marginally outperformed other popular methods, while for differential splicing, DEXSeq was simultaneously the most sensitive and the most inconsistent method. For sample deconvolution analysis, DeMix outperformed IsoPure convincingly. Our RNA-sequencing data set provides a valuable resource for benchmarking different protocols and data pre-processing workflows. The extra noise mimics routine lab experiments more closely, ensuring any conclusions are widely applicable. PMID:27899618

Simulation Of Research And Development Projects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miles, Ralph F.

1987-01-01

Measures of preference for alternative project plans calculated. Simulation of Research and Development Projects (SIMRAND) program aids in optimal allocation of research and development resources needed to achieve project goals. Models system subsets or project tasks as various network paths to final goal. Each path described in terms of such task variables as cost per hour, cost per unit, and availability of resources. Uncertainty incorporated by treating task variables as probabilistic random variables. Written in Microsoft FORTRAN 77.

Turbo-generator control with variable valve actuation

DOEpatents

Vuk, Carl T [Denver, IA

2011-02-22

An internal combustion engine incorporating a turbo-generator and one or more variably activated exhaust valves. The exhaust valves are adapted to variably release exhaust gases from a combustion cylinder during a combustion cycle to an exhaust system. The turbo-generator is adapted to receive exhaust gases from the exhaust system and rotationally harness energy therefrom to produce electrical power. A controller is adapted to command the exhaust valve to variably open in response to a desired output for the turbo-generator.

Testing and extending the triple match principle in the nursing profession: a generational perspective on job demands, job resources and strain at work.

PubMed

Lavoie-Tremblay, Melanie; Trépanier, Sarah-Geneviève; Fernet, Claude; Bonneville-Roussy, Arielle

2014-02-01

The Triple Match Principle offers insight into the interactive interplay between job demands and job resources in the prediction of work-related strain. The aim of this article was to examine the interplay among job demands, job resources and strain in the nursing profession (the Triple Match Principle) and to gain insight into potential generational differences by investigating generation as a moderator of that interplay. No research has been done to evaluate generational differences in the Triple Match Principle. In a context of nursing shortages, it seems important to examine the relevance of the Triple Match Principle with respect to different generations of nurses. Cross-sectional study. A total of 1254 public healthcare sector nurses in Quebec, Canada, completed a questionnaire in the autumn of 2010. The questionnaire was used to assess cognitive, emotional and physical job demands and resources; psychological distress; psychosomatic complaints; and turnover intention. The results supported the Triple Match Principle and showed that job resources were more likely to buffer the effect of job demands on strain as the degree of match in qualitative dimension among demands, resources and strain increased (33·3% of triple-match interactions, 22·22% of double-match interactions and 16·67% non-match interactions were significant). Moreover, generation played a key role in this interplay, as it increased the number of significant qualitative interactions among job demands, job resources and strain. The results underscore the necessity of providing adequate job resources tailored to the specific job demands nurses face, to counteract the negative effects of those demands. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Influences of landscape heterogeneity on home-range sizes of brown bears

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mangipane, Lindsey S.; Belant, Jerrold L.; Hiller, Tim L.; Colvin, Michael E.; Gustine, David; Mangipane, Buck A.; Hilderbrand, Grant V.

2018-01-01

Animal space use is influenced by many factors and can affect individual survival and fitness. Under optimal foraging theory, individuals use landscapes to optimize high-quality resources while minimizing the amount of energy used to acquire them. The spatial resource variability hypothesis states that as patchiness of resources increases, individuals use larger areas to obtain the resources necessary to meet energetic requirements. Additionally, under the temporal resource variability hypothesis, seasonal variation in available resources can reduce distances moved while providing a variety of food sources. Our objective was to determine if seasonal home ranges of brown bears (Ursus arctos) were influenced by temporal availability and spatial distribution of resources and whether individual reproductive status, sex, or size (i.e., body mass) mediated space use. To test our hypotheses, we radio collared brown bears (n = 32 [9 male, 23 female]) in 2014–2016 and used 18 a prioriselected linear models to evaluate seasonal utilization distributions (UD) in relation to our hypotheses. Our top-ranked model by AICc, supported the spatial resource variability hypothesis and included percentage of like adjacency (PLADJ) of all cover types (P < 0.01), reproductive class (P > 0.17 for males, solitary females, and females with dependent young), and body mass (kg; P = 0.66). Based on this model, for every percentage increase in PLADJ, UD area was predicted to increase 1.16 times for all sex and reproductive classes. Our results suggest that landscape heterogeneity influences brown bear space use; however, we found that bears used larger areas when landscape homogeneity increased, presumably to gain a diversity of food resources. Our results did not support the temporal resource variability hypothesis, suggesting that the spatial distribution of food was more important than seasonal availability in relation to brown bear home range size.

Generating Variable and Random Schedules of Reinforcement Using Microsoft Excel Macros

PubMed Central

Bancroft, Stacie L; Bourret, Jason C

2008-01-01

Variable reinforcement schedules are used to arrange the availability of reinforcement following varying response ratios or intervals of time. Random reinforcement schedules are subtypes of variable reinforcement schedules that can be used to arrange the availability of reinforcement at a constant probability across number of responses or time. Generating schedule values for variable and random reinforcement schedules can be difficult. The present article describes the steps necessary to write macros in Microsoft Excel that will generate variable-ratio, variable-interval, variable-time, random-ratio, random-interval, and random-time reinforcement schedule values. PMID:18595286

Relationships between workplace well-being, job demands and resources in a sample of veterinary nurses in New Zealand.

PubMed

Kimber, S; Gardner, D H

2016-07-01

To use a job demands-resources model to examine the associations among perceived job demands, job resources, family-to-work enrichment, positive team relationships, work engagement, emotional exhaustion, cynicism and intention to leave, in a sample of New Zealand veterinary nurses. Data were collected by means of a self-reported online survey, with the help of eight New Zealand tertiary education providers and the New Zealand Veterinary Nurses' Association. Nine measures or variables were assessed using questions or statements with responses categorised on a linear scale. Measurement models for each of the variables in the study were assessed to establish whether the variables represented the respective item-level data. Structural equation modelling was then used to test the hypothesised interrelationships among study variables. There were 253 respondents; 17.1% of individuals who classified themselves as veterinary nurses in the 2013 New Zealand census. In the final structural model job demands were associated with emotional exhaustion (standardised regression coefficient β=0.57), which was related to cynicism (β=0.52) and intention to leave (β=0.56). Job resources were negatively related to emotional exhaustion (β=-0.32). Higher work engagement was associated with lower emotional exhaustion (β=-0.29) and lower intention to leave (β=-0.30). Job resources were associated with work-to-family enrichment (β=0.69), which was related to work engagement (β=0.57); and job resources were associated with positive team relationships (β=0.79). It is important that job resources are available to help deal with demanding work. Without resources, demanding work is associated with exhaustion, cynicism and increased intention to leave, while positive spill over between work and family life are related to higher work engagement.

78 FR 72878 - Integration of Variable Energy Resources; Notice Of Filing Procedures for Order No. 764...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-12-04

... DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY Federal Energy Regulatory Commission [Docket No. RM10-11-000] Integration of Variable Energy Resources; Notice Of Filing Procedures for Order No. 764 Electronic Compliance Filings Take notice of the following filing procedures with respect to compliance obligations in Integration of...

Resources, Instruction, and Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cohen, David K.; Raudenbush, Stephen W.; Ball, Deborah Loewenberg

2003-01-01

Many researchers who study the relations between school resources and student achievement have worked from a causal model, which typically is implicit. In this model, some resource or set of resources is the causal variable and student achievement is the outcome. In a few recent, more nuanced versions, resource effects depend on intervening…

Virtual water trade in the Roman Mediterranean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dermody, Brian; van Beek, Rens; Meeks, Elijah; Klein Goldewijk, Kees; Scheidel, Walter; van der Velde, Ype; Bierkens, Marc; Wassen, Martin; Dekker, Stefan

2015-04-01

The Romans were perhaps the most impressive exponents of water resource management in pre-industrial times with irrigation and virtual water trade facilitating unprecedented urbanisation and socio-economic stability for hundreds of years in a region of highly variable climate. To understand Roman water resource management in response to urbanisation and climate variability, a Virtual Water Network of the Roman World was developed. Using this network we found that irrigation and virtual water trade increased Roman resilience to inter-annual climate variability. However, urbanisation and population growth arising from virtual water trade likely pushed the Empire closer to the boundary of its water resources, led to an increase in import costs, and eroded its resilience to climate variability in the long term. Our newest findings also assess the impact that persistent climate change associated with Holocene climate anomalies had on Roman water resource management. Specifically we assess the impact of the change in climate from the Roman Warm Period to the Dark Ages Cold Period on the Roman food supply and whether it could have contributed to the fall of the Western Roman Empire.

Integration of photovoltaic units into electric utility grids: experiment information requirements and selected issues

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1980-09-01

A number of investigations, including those conducted by The Aerospace Corporation and other contractors, have led to the recognition of technical, economic, and institutional issues relating to the interface between solar electric technologies and electric utility systems. These issues derive from three attributes of solar electric power concepts, including (1) the variability and unpredictability of the solar resources, (2) the dispersed nature of those resources which suggests the feasible deployment of small dispersed power units, and (3) a high initial capital cost coupled with relatively low operating costs. It is imperative that these integration issues be pursued in parallel withmore » the development of each technology if the nation's electric utility systems are to effectively utilize these technologies in the near to intermediate term. Analyses of three of these issues are presented: utility information requirements, generation mix and production cost impacts, and rate structures in the context of photovoltaic units integrated into the utility system. (WHK)« less

Relatedness predicts multiple measures of investment in cooperative nest construction in sociable weavers

PubMed Central

Leighton, Gavin M.; Echeverri, Sebastian; Heinrich, Dirk; Kolberg, Holger

2015-01-01

Although communal goods are often critical to society, they are simultaneously susceptible to exploitation and are evolutionarily stable only if mechanisms exist to curtail exploitation. Mechanisms such as punishment and kin selection have been offered as general explanations for how communal resources can be maintained. Evidence for these mechanisms comes largely from humans and social insects, leaving their generality in question. To assess how communal resources are maintained, we observed cooperative nest construction in sociable weavers (Philetairus socius). The communal nest of sociable weavers provides thermal benefits for all individuals but requires continual maintenance. We observed cooperative nest construction and also recorded basic morphological characteristics. We also collected blood samples, performed next-generation sequencing, and isolated 2358 variable single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) to estimate relatedness. We find that relatedness predicts investment in cooperative nest construction, while no other morphological characters significantly explain cooperative output. We argue that indirect benefits are a critical fitness component for maintaining the cooperative behavior that maintains the communal good. PMID:26726282

Universal patterns of inequality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Banerjee, Anand; Yakovenko, Victor M.

2010-07-01

Probability distributions of money, income and energy consumption per capita are studied for ensembles of economic agents. The principle of entropy maximization for partitioning of a limited resource gives exponential distributions for the investigated variables. A non-equilibrium difference of money temperatures between different systems generates net fluxes of money and population. To describe income distribution, a stochastic process with additive and multiplicative components is introduced. The resultant distribution interpolates between exponential at the low end and power law at the high end, in agreement with the empirical data for the USA. We show that the increase in income inequality in the USA originates primarily from the increase in the income fraction going to the upper tail, which now exceeds 20% of the total income. Analyzing the data from the World Resources Institute, we find that the distribution of energy consumption per capita around the world can be approximately described by the exponential function. Comparing the data for 1990, 2000 and 2005, we discuss the effect of globalization on the inequality of energy consumption.

Emerging role of Geographical Information System (GIS), Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and spatial LCA (GIS-LCA) in sustainable bioenergy planning.

PubMed

Hiloidhari, Moonmoon; Baruah, D C; Singh, Anoop; Kataki, Sampriti; Medhi, Kristina; Kumari, Shilpi; Ramachandra, T V; Jenkins, B M; Thakur, Indu Shekhar

2017-10-01

Sustainability of a bioenergy project depends on precise assessment of biomass resource, planning of cost-effective logistics and evaluation of possible environmental implications. In this context, this paper reviews the role and applications of geo-spatial tool such as Geographical Information System (GIS) for precise agro-residue resource assessment, biomass logistic and power plant design. Further, application of Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) in understanding the potential impact of agro-residue bioenergy generation on different ecosystem services has also been reviewed and limitations associated with LCA variability and uncertainty were discussed. Usefulness of integration of GIS into LCA (i.e. spatial LCA) to overcome the limitations of conventional LCA and to produce a holistic evaluation of the environmental benefits and concerns of bioenergy is also reviewed. Application of GIS, LCA and spatial LCA can help alleviate the challenges faced by ambitious bioenergy projects by addressing both economics and environmental goals. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Monitoring of computing resource utilization of the ATLAS experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rousseau, David; Dimitrov, Gancho; Vukotic, Ilija; Aidel, Osman; Schaffer, Rd; Albrand, Solveig

2012-12-01

Due to the good performance of the LHC accelerator, the ATLAS experiment has seen higher than anticipated levels for both the event rate and the average number of interactions per bunch crossing. In order to respond to these changing requirements, the current and future usage of CPU, memory and disk resources has to be monitored, understood and acted upon. This requires data collection at a fairly fine level of granularity: the performance of each object written and each algorithm run, as well as a dozen per-job variables, are gathered for the different processing steps of Monte Carlo generation and simulation and the reconstruction of both data and Monte Carlo. We present a system to collect and visualize the data from both the online Tier-0 system and distributed grid production jobs. Around 40 GB of performance data are expected from up to 200k jobs per day, thus making performance optimization of the underlying Oracle database of utmost importance.

Integrating CO₂ storage with geothermal resources for dispatchable renewable electricity

DOE PAGES

Buscheck, Thomas A.; Bielicki, Jeffrey M.; Chen, Mingjie; ...

2014-12-31

We present an approach that uses the huge fluid and thermal storage capacity of the subsurface, together with geologic CO₂ storage, to harvest, store, and dispatch energy from subsurface (geothermal) and surface (solar, nuclear, fossil) thermal resources, as well as energy from electrical grids. Captured CO₂ is injected into saline aquifers to store pressure, generate artesian flow of brine, and provide an additional working fluid for efficient heat extraction and power conversion. Concentric rings of injection and production wells are used to create a hydraulic divide to store pressure, CO₂, and thermal energy. Such storage can take excess power frommore » the grid and excess/waste thermal energy, and dispatch that energy when it is demanded, enabling increased penetration of variable renewables. Stored CO₂ functions as a cushion gas to provide enormous pressure-storage capacity and displaces large quantities of brine, which can be desalinated and/or treated for a variety of beneficial uses.« less

Harvesting Atlantic Cod under Climate Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oremus, K. L.

2016-12-01

Previous literature links the growth of a fishery to climate variability. This study uses an age-structured bioeconomic model to compare optimal harvest in the Gulf of Maine Atlantic cod fishery under a variable climate versus a static climate. The optimal harvest path depends on the relationship between fishery growth and the interest rate, with higher interest rates dictating greater harvests now at the cost of long-term stock sustainability. Given the time horizon of a single generation of fishermen under assumptions of a static climate, the model finds that the economically optimal management strategy is to harvest the entire stock in the short term and allow the fishery to collapse. However, if the biological growth of the fishery is assumed to vary with climate conditions, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, there will always be pulses of high growth in the stock. During some of these high-growth years, the growth of the stock and its economic yield can exceed the growth rate of the economy even under high interest rates. This implies that it is not economically optimal to exhaust the New England cod fishery if NAO is included in the biological growth function. This finding may have theoretical implications for the management of other renewable yet exhaustible resources whose growth rates are subject to climate variability.

Energy Management Challenges and Opportunities with Increased Intermittent Renewable Generation on the California Electrical Grid

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eichman, Joshua David

Renewable resources including wind, solar, geothermal, biomass, hydroelectric, wave and tidal, represent an opportunity for environmentally preferred generation of electricity that also increases energy security and independence. California is very proactive in encouraging the implementation of renewable energy in part through legislation like Assembly Bill 32 and the development and execution of Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS); however renewable technologies are not without challenges. All renewable resources have some resource limitations, be that from location, capacity, cost or availability. Technologies like wind and solar are intermittent in nature but represent one of the most abundant resources for generating renewable electricity. If RPS goals are to be achieved high levels of intermittent renewables must be considered. This work explores the effects of high penetration of renewables on a grid system, with respect to resource availability and identifies the key challenges from the perspective of the grid to introducing these resources. The HiGRID tool was developed for this analysis because no other tool could explore grid operation, while maintaining system reliability, with a diverse set of renewable resources and a wide array of complementary technologies including: energy efficiency, demand response, energy storage technologies and electric transportation. This tool resolves the hourly operation of conventional generation resources (nuclear, coal, geothermal, natural gas and hydro). The resulting behavior from introducing additional renewable resources and the lifetime costs for each technology is analyzed.

The national coal-resources data system of the U.S. geological survey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carter, M.D.

1976-01-01

The National Coal Resources Data System (NCRDS) was designed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to meet the increasing demands for rapid retrieval of information on coal location, quantity, quality, and accessibility. An interactive conversational query system devised by the USGS retrieves information from the data bank through a standard computer terminal. The system is being developed in two phases. Phase I, which currently is available on a limited basis, contains published areal resource and chemical data. The primary objective of this phase is to retrieve, calculate, and tabulate coal-resource data by area on a local, regional, or national scale. Factors available for retrieval include: state, county, quadrangle, township, coal field, coal bed, formation, geologic age, source and reliability of data, and coal-bed rank, thickness, overburden, and tonnage, or any combinations of variables. In addition, the chemical data items include individual values for proximate and ultimate analyses, BTU value, and several other physical and chemical tests. Information will be validated and deleted or updated as needed. Phase II is being developed to store, retrieve, and manipulate basic point source coal data (e.g., field observations, drill-hole logs), including geodetic location; bed thickness; depth of burial; moisture; ash; sulfur; major-, minor-, and trace-element content; heat value; and characteristics of overburden, roof rocks, and floor rocks. The computer system may be used to generate interactively structure-contour or isoline maps of the physical and chemical characteristics of a coal bed or to calculate coal resources. ?? 1976.

Competitive Advantage in Intercollegiate Athletics: Role of Intangible Resources.

PubMed

Won, Doyeon; Chelladurai, Packianathan

2016-01-01

The present research explored the dynamics of competitive advantages in intercollegiate athletics by investigating the contribution of intangible resources (i.e., athletic and academic reputations) on the generation of more tangible resources (i.e., human and financial resources), which in turn influence the athletic performance (i.e., winning record) and academic performance (i.e., graduation rates), and gender equity. The research was based entirely on archival data of 324 NCAA Division I member institutions. The results of the SEM supported the study's basic arguments that tangible resources are the sources of competitive advantages in Division I intercollegiate athletics, and that intangible resources contribute to the generation of tangible resources.

Soil resources and topography shape local tree community structure in tropical forests

PubMed Central

Baldeck, Claire A.; Harms, Kyle E.; Yavitt, Joseph B.; John, Robert; Turner, Benjamin L.; Valencia, Renato; Navarrete, Hugo; Davies, Stuart J.; Chuyong, George B.; Kenfack, David; Thomas, Duncan W.; Madawala, Sumedha; Gunatilleke, Nimal; Gunatilleke, Savitri; Bunyavejchewin, Sarayudh; Kiratiprayoon, Somboon; Yaacob, Adzmi; Supardi, Mohd N. Nur; Dalling, James W.

2013-01-01

Both habitat filtering and dispersal limitation influence the compositional structure of forest communities, but previous studies examining the relative contributions of these processes with variation partitioning have primarily used topography to represent the influence of the environment. Here, we bring together data on both topography and soil resource variation within eight large (24–50 ha) tropical forest plots, and use variation partitioning to decompose community compositional variation into fractions explained by spatial, soil resource and topographic variables. Both soil resources and topography account for significant and approximately equal variation in tree community composition (9–34% and 5–29%, respectively), and all environmental variables together explain 13–39% of compositional variation within a plot. A large fraction of variation (19–37%) was spatially structured, yet unexplained by the environment, suggesting an important role for dispersal processes and unmeasured environmental variables. For the majority of sites, adding soil resource variables to topography nearly doubled the inferred role of habitat filtering, accounting for variation in compositional structure that would previously have been attributable to dispersal. Our results, illustrated using a new graphical depiction of community structure within these plots, demonstrate the importance of small-scale environmental variation in shaping local community structure in diverse tropical forests around the globe. PMID:23256196

Constraining continuous rainfall simulations for derived design flood estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woldemeskel, F. M.; Sharma, A.; Mehrotra, R.; Westra, S.

2016-11-01

Stochastic rainfall generation is important for a range of hydrologic and water resources applications. Stochastic rainfall can be generated using a number of models; however, preserving relevant attributes of the observed rainfall-including rainfall occurrence, variability and the magnitude of extremes-continues to be difficult. This paper develops an approach to constrain stochastically generated rainfall with an aim of preserving the intensity-durationfrequency (IFD) relationships of the observed data. Two main steps are involved. First, the generated annual maximum rainfall is corrected recursively by matching the generated intensity-frequency relationships to the target (observed) relationships. Second, the remaining (non-annual maximum) rainfall is rescaled such that the mass balance of the generated rain before and after scaling is maintained. The recursive correction is performed at selected storm durations to minimise the dependence between annual maximum values of higher and lower durations for the same year. This ensures that the resulting sequences remain true to the observed rainfall as well as represent the design extremes that may have been developed separately and are needed for compliance reasons. The method is tested on simulated 6 min rainfall series across five Australian stations with different climatic characteristics. The results suggest that the annual maximum and the IFD relationships are well reproduced after constraining the simulated rainfall. While our presentation focusses on the representation of design rainfall attributes (IFDs), the proposed approach can also be easily extended to constrain other attributes of the generated rainfall, providing an effective platform for post-processing of stochastic rainfall generators.

Assessment of equine waste as a biomass resource in New York State

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Equine operations may generate excessive quantities of biomass (manure and used bedding) that could either become a waste or a resource, especially when the biomass is developed as an alternative energy source. Using the generated biomass as a resource can involve a variety of approaches such as la...

Engineering the Implementation of Pumped Hydro Energy Storage in the Arizona Power Grid

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dixon, William Jesse J.

This thesis addresses the issue of making an economic case for bulk energy storage in the Arizona bulk power system. Pumped hydro energy storage (PHES) is used in this study. Bulk energy storage has often been suggested for large scale electric power systems in order to levelize load (store energy when it is inexpensive [energy demand is low] and discharge energy when it is expensive [energy demand is high]). It also has the potential to provide opportunities to avoid transmission and generation expansion, and provide for generation reserve margins. As the level of renewable energy resources increases, the uncertainty and variability of wind and solar resources may be improved by bulk energy storage technologies. For this study, the MATLab software platform is used, a mathematical based modeling language, optimization solvers (specifically Gurobi), and a power flow solver (PowerWorld) are used to simulate an economic dispatch problem that includes energy storage and transmission losses. A program is created which utilizes quadratic programming to analyze various cases using a 2010 summer peak load from the Arizona portion of the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) system. Actual data from industry are used in this test bed. In this thesis, the full capabilities of Gurobi are not utilized (e.g., integer variables, binary variables). However, the formulation shown here does create a platform such that future, more sophisticated modeling may readily be incorporated. The developed software is used to assess the Arizona test bed with a low level of energy storage to study how the storage power limit effects several optimization outputs such as the system wide operating costs. Large levels of energy storage are then added to see how high level energy storage affects peak shaving, load factor, and other system applications. Finally, various constraint relaxations are made to analyze why the applications tested eventually approach a constant value. This research illustrates the use of energy storage which helps minimize the system wide generator operating cost by "shaving" energy off of the peak demand. The thesis builds on the work of another recent researcher with the objectives of strengthening the assumptions used, checking the solutions obtained, utilizing higher level simulation languages to affirm results, and expanding the results and conclusions. One important point not fully discussed in the present thesis is the impact of efficiency in the pumped hydro cycle. The efficiency of the cycle for modern units is estimated at higher than 90%. Inclusion of pumped hydro losses is relegated to future work.

Generating partially correlated noise—A comparison of methods

PubMed Central

Hartmann, William M.; Cho, Yun Jin

2011-01-01

There are three standard methods for generating two channels of partially correlated noise: the two-generator method, the three-generator method, and the symmetric-generator method. These methods allow an experimenter to specify a target cross correlation between the two channels, but actual generated noises show statistical variability around the target value. Numerical experiments were done to compare the variability for those methods as a function of the number of degrees of freedom. The results of the experiments quantify the stimulus uncertainty in diverse binaural psychoacoustical experiments: incoherence detection, perceived auditory source width, envelopment, noise localization∕lateralization, and the masking level difference. The numerical experiments found that when the elemental generators have unequal powers, the different methods all have similar variability. When the powers are constrained to be equal, the symmetric-generator method has much smaller variability than the other two. PMID:21786899

Numerical investigation for entropy generation in hydromagnetic flow of fluid with variable properties and slip

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, M. Ijaz; Hayat, Tasawar; Alsaedi, Ahmed

2018-02-01

This modeling and computations present the study of viscous fluid flow with variable properties by a rotating stretchable disk. Rotating flow is generated through nonlinear rotating stretching surface. Nonlinear thermal radiation and heat generation/absorption are studied. Flow is conducting for a constant applied magnetic field. No polarization is taken. Induced magnetic field is not taken into account. Attention is focused on the entropy generation rate and Bejan number. The entropy generation rate and Bejan number clearly depend on velocity and thermal fields. The von Kármán approach is utilized to convert the partial differential expressions into ordinary ones. These expressions are non-dimensionalized, and numerical results are obtained for flow variables. The effects of the magnetic parameter, Prandtl number, radiative parameter, heat generation/absorption parameter, and slip parameter on velocity and temperature fields as well as the entropy generation rate and Bejan number are discussed. Drag forces (radial and tangential) and heat transfer rates are calculated and discussed. Furthermore the entropy generation rate is a decreasing function of magnetic variable and Reynolds number. The Bejan number effect on the entropy generation rate is reverse to that of the magnetic variable. Also opposite behavior of heat transfers is observed for varying estimations of radiative and slip variables.

Cascaded neural networks for sequenced propagation estimation, multiuser detection, and adaptive radio resource control of third-generation wireless networks for multimedia services

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hortos, William S.

1999-03-01

A hybrid neural network approach is presented to estimate radio propagation characteristics and multiuser interference and to evaluate their combined impact on throughput, latency and information loss in third-generation (3G) wireless networks. The latter three performance parameters influence the quality of service (QoS) for multimedia services under consideration for 3G networks. These networks, based on a hierarchical architecture of overlaying macrocells on top of micro- and picocells, are planned to operate in mobile urban and indoor environments with service demands emanating from circuit-switched, packet-switched and satellite-based traffic sources. Candidate radio interfaces for these networks employ a form of wideband CDMA in 5-MHz and wider-bandwidth channels, with possible asynchronous operation of the mobile subscribers. The proposed neural network (NN) architecture allocates network resources to optimize QoS metrics. Parameters of the radio propagation channel are estimated, followed by control of an adaptive antenna array at the base station to minimize interference, and then joint multiuser detection is performed at the base station receiver. These adaptive processing stages are implemented as a sequence of NN techniques that provide their estimates as inputs to a final- stage Kohonen self-organizing feature map (SOFM). The SOFM optimizes the allocation of available network resources to satisfy QoS requirements for variable-rate voice, data and video services. As the first stage of the sequence, a modified feed-forward multilayer perceptron NN is trained on the pilot signals of the mobile subscribers to estimate the parameters of shadowing, multipath fading and delays on the uplinks. A recurrent NN (RNN) forms the second stage to control base stations' adaptive antenna arrays to minimize intra-cell interference. The third stage is based on a Hopfield NN (HNN), modified to detect multiple users on the uplink radio channels to mitigate multiaccess interference, control carrier-sense multiple-access (CSMA) protocols, and refine call handoff procedures. In the final stage, the Kohonen SOFM, operating in a hybrid continuous and discrete space, adaptively allocates the resources of antenna-based cell sectorization, activity monitoring, variable-rate coding, power control, handoff and caller admission to meet user demands for various multimedia services at minimum QoS levels. The performance of the NN cascade is evaluated through simulation of a candidate 3G wireless network using W-CDMA parameters in a small-cell environment. The simulated network consists of a representative number of cells. Mobile users with typical movement patterns are assumed. QoS requirements for different classes of multimedia services are considered. The proposed method is shown to provide relatively low probability of new call blocking and handoff dropping, while maintaining efficient use of the network's radio resources.

Riparian ecosystem resilience and livelihood strategies under test: lessons from Lake Chilwa in Malawi and other lakes in Africa.

PubMed

Kafumbata, Dalitso; Jamu, Daniel; Chiotha, Sosten

2014-04-05

This paper reviews the importance of African lakes and their management challenges. African inland lakes contribute significantly to food security, livelihoods and national economies through direct exploitation of fisheries, water resources for irrigation and hydropower generation. Because of these key contributions, the ecosystem services provided are under significant stress mainly owing to high demand by increasing populations, negative anthropogenic impacts on lake catchments and high levels of poverty which result in unsustainable use. Climate variability exacerbates the stress on these ecosystems. Current research findings show that the lakes cannot sustain further development activities on the scale seen over the past few decades. Millions of people are at risk of losing livelihoods through impacts on livestock and wildlife. The review further shows that the problems facing these lakes are beyond the purview of current management practices. A much better understanding of the interactions and feedbacks between different components of the lake socio-ecological systems is needed to address the complex challenges of managing these ecosystem services. This review suggests that the three small wetlands of Chad, Chilwa and Naivasha provide an opportunity for testing novel ideas that integrate sustainability of natural resource management with livelihoods in order to inform policy on how future land use and climatic variability will affect both food security and the ecosystem services associated with it.

Multi-time Scale Coordination of Distributed Energy Resources in Isolated Power Systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mayhorn, Ebony; Xie, Le; Butler-Purry, Karen

2016-03-31

In isolated power systems, including microgrids, distributed assets, such as renewable energy resources (e.g. wind, solar) and energy storage, can be actively coordinated to reduce dependency on fossil fuel generation. The key challenge of such coordination arises from significant uncertainty and variability occurring at small time scales associated with increased penetration of renewables. Specifically, the problem is with ensuring economic and efficient utilization of DERs, while also meeting operational objectives such as adequate frequency performance. One possible solution is to reduce the time step at which tertiary controls are implemented and to ensure feedback and look-ahead capability are incorporated tomore » handle variability and uncertainty. However, reducing the time step of tertiary controls necessitates investigating time-scale coupling with primary controls so as not to exacerbate system stability issues. In this paper, an optimal coordination (OC) strategy, which considers multiple time-scales, is proposed for isolated microgrid systems with a mix of DERs. This coordination strategy is based on an online moving horizon optimization approach. The effectiveness of the strategy was evaluated in terms of economics, technical performance, and computation time by varying key parameters that significantly impact performance. The illustrative example with realistic scenarios on a simulated isolated microgrid test system suggests that the proposed approach is generalizable towards designing multi-time scale optimal coordination strategies for isolated power systems.« less

Estimating Renewable Energy Economic Potential in the United States: Methodology and Initial Results

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brown, Austin; Beiter, Philipp; Heimiller, Donna

The report describes a geospatial analysis method to estimate the economic potential of several renewable resources available for electricity generation in the United States. Economic potential, one measure of renewable generation potential, is defined in this report as the subset of the available resource technical potential where the cost required to generate the electricity (which determines the minimum revenue requirements for development of the resource) is below the revenue available in terms of displaced energy and displaced capacity.

Study on optimization of the short-term operation of cascade hydropower stations by considering output error

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Liping; Wang, Boquan; Zhang, Pu; Liu, Minghao; Li, Chuangang

2017-06-01

The study of reservoir deterministic optimal operation can improve the utilization rate of water resource and help the hydropower stations develop more reasonable power generation schedules. However, imprecise forecasting inflow may lead to output error and hinder implementation of power generation schedules. In this paper, output error generated by the uncertainty of the forecasting inflow was regarded as a variable to develop a short-term reservoir optimal operation model for reducing operation risk. To accomplish this, the concept of Value at Risk (VaR) was first applied to present the maximum possible loss of power generation schedules, and then an extreme value theory-genetic algorithm (EVT-GA) was proposed to solve the model. The cascade reservoirs of Yalong River Basin in China were selected as a case study to verify the model, according to the results, different assurance rates of schedules can be derived by the model which can present more flexible options for decision makers, and the highest assurance rate can reach 99%, which is much higher than that without considering output error, 48%. In addition, the model can greatly improve the power generation compared with the original reservoir operation scheme under the same confidence level and risk attitude. Therefore, the model proposed in this paper can significantly improve the effectiveness of power generation schedules and provide a more scientific reference for decision makers.

Individual Differences in Well-Being in Older Breast Cancer Survivors

PubMed Central

Perkins, Elizabeth A.; Small, Brent J.; Balducci, Lodovico; Extermann, Martine; Robb, Claire; Haley, William E.

2007-01-01

Older women who survive breast cancer may differ significantly in their long-term well-being. Using a risk and protective factors model, we studied predictors of well-being in 127 women age 70 and above with a history of at least one year's survival of breast cancer. Mean post-cancer survivorship was 5.1 years. Using life satisfaction, depression and general health perceptions as outcome variables, we assessed whether demographic variables, cancer-related variables, health status and psychosocial resources predicted variability in well-being using correlational and hierarchical regression analyses. Higher age predicted increased depression but was not associated with life satisfaction or general health perceptions. Cancer-related variables, including duration of survival, and type of cancer treatment, were not significantly associated with survivors' well-being. Poorer health status was associated with poorer well-being in all three dependent variables. After controlling for demographics, cancer-related variables, and health status, higher levels of psychosocial resources including optimism, mastery, spirituality and social support predicted better outcome in all three dependent variables. While many older women survive breast cancer without severe sequelae, there is considerable variability in their well-being after survivorship. Successful intervention with older breast cancer survivors might include greater attention not only to cancer-specific concerns, but also attention to geriatric syndromes and functional impairment, and enhancement of protective psychosocial resources. PMID:17240157

Revenue-sharing clubs provide economic insurance and incentives for sustainability in common-pool resource systems.

PubMed

Tilman, Andrew R; Levin, Simon; Watson, James R

2018-06-05

Harvesting behaviors of natural resource users, such as farmers, fishermen and aquaculturists, are shaped by season-to-season and day-to-day variability, or in other words risk. Here, we explore how risk-mitigation strategies can lead to sustainable use and improved management of common-pool natural resources. Over-exploitation of unmanaged natural resources, which lowers their long-term productivity, is a central challenge facing societies. While effective top-down management is a possible solution, it is not available if the resource is outside the jurisdictional bounds of any management entity, or if existing institutions cannot effectively impose sustainable-use rules. Under these conditions, alternative approaches to natural resource governance are required. Here, we study revenue-sharing clubs as a mechanism by which resource users can mitigate their income volatility and importantly, as a co-benefit, are also incentivized to reduce their effort, leading to reduced over-exploitation and improved resource governance. We use game theoretic analyses and agent-based modeling to determine the conditions in which revenue-sharing can be beneficial for resource management as well as resource users. We find that revenue-sharing agreements can emerge and lead to improvements in resource management when there is large variability in production/revenue and when this variability is uncorrelated across members of the revenue-sharing club. Further, we show that if members of the revenue-sharing collective can sell their product at a price premium, then the range of ecological and economic conditions under which revenue-sharing can be a tool for management greatly expands. These results have implications for the design of bottom-up management, where resource users themselves are incentivized to operate in ecologically sustainable and economically advantageous ways. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

High Resolution Modeling in Mountainous Terrain for Water Resource Management: AN Extreme Precipitation Event Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masarik, M. T.; Watson, K. A.; Flores, A. N.; Anderson, K.; Tangen, S.

2016-12-01

The water resources infrastructure of the Western US is designed to deliver reliable water supply to users and provide recreational opportunities for the public, as well as afford flood control for communities by buffering variability in precipitation and snow storage. Thus water resource management is a balancing act of meeting multiple objectives while trying to anticipate and mitigate natural variability of water supply. Currently, the forecast guidance available to personnel managing resources in mountainous terrain is lacking in two ways: the spatial resolution is too coarse, and there is a gap in the intermediate time range (10-30 days). To address this need we examine the effectiveness of using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, a state of the art, regional, numerical weather prediction model, as a means to generate high-resolution weather guidance in the intermediate time range. This presentation will focus on a reanalysis and hindcasting case study of the extreme precipitation and flooding event in the Payette River Basin of Idaho during the period of June 2nd-4th, 2010. For the reanalysis exercise we use NCEP's Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) and the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data sets as input boundary conditions to WRF. The model configuration includes a horizontal spatial resolution of 3km in the outer nest, and 1 km in the inner nest, with output temporal resolution of 3 hrs and 1 hr, respectively. The hindcast simulations, which are currently underway, will make use of the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reforecast (CFSRR) data. The current state of these runs will be discussed. Preparations for the second of two components in this project, weekly WRF forecasts during the intense portion of the water year, will be briefly described. These forecasts will use the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) operational forecast data as boundary conditions to provide forecast guidance geared towards water resource managers out to a lead time of 30 days. We are particularly interested in the degree to which there is forecast skill in basinwide precipitation occurrence, departure from climatology, timing, and amount in the intermediate time range.

Mass and Volume Optimization of Space Flight Medical Kits

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keenan, A. B.; Foy, Millennia Hope; Myers, Jerry

2014-01-01

Resource allocation is a critical aspect of space mission planning. All resources, including medical resources, are subject to a number of mission constraints such a maximum mass and volume. However, unlike many resources, there is often limited understanding in how to optimize medical resources for a mission. The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a probabilistic model that estimates medical event occurrences and mission outcomes for different mission profiles. IMM simulates outcomes and describes the impact of medical events in terms of lost crew time, medical resource usage, and the potential for medically required evacuation. Previously published work describes an approach that uses the IMM to generate optimized medical kits that maximize benefit to the crew subject to mass and volume constraints. We improve upon the results obtained previously and extend our approach to minimize mass and volume while meeting some benefit threshold. METHODS We frame the medical kit optimization problem as a modified knapsack problem and implement an algorithm utilizing dynamic programming. Using this algorithm, optimized medical kits were generated for 3 mission scenarios with the goal of minimizing the medical kit mass and volume for a specified likelihood of evacuation or Crew Health Index (CHI) threshold. The algorithm was expanded to generate medical kits that maximize likelihood of evacuation or CHI subject to mass and volume constraints. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS In maximizing benefit to crew health subject to certain constraints, our algorithm generates medical kits that more closely resemble the unlimited-resource scenario than previous approaches which leverage medical risk information generated by the IMM. Our work here demonstrates that this algorithm provides an efficient and effective means to objectively allocate medical resources for spaceflight missions and provides an effective means of addressing tradeoffs in medical resource allocations and crew mission success parameters.

The pollutants from livestock and poultry farming in China-geographic distribution and drivers.

PubMed

Gan, Ling; Hu, Xisheng

2016-05-01

Livestock and poultry farming is a major source of agricultural pollution. However, our knowledge of the constraining factors of the geographic distribution of pollutants from livestock and poultry farming is still limited. In this study, using the optimized pollutant generation coefficients, we estimated the annual pollutant productions of eight livestock and poultry species at the provincial level in 2005 and 2013 and their growth rates during the study period in China; using canonical correlation analysis, we also explored the association between the eight pollutant measurements as dependent variables and 14 factors (including resource endowment, developmental level, and economic structure factors) as independent variables. Results indicate that there exist spatial disparity in the distribution of pollutants from livestock and poultry farming across regions, with provinces in the Huang-Huai-Hai region and the southwestern region accounting for approximately 50 % of the total productions in the nation. Cattle, pig, and poultry constitute the primary pollution sources in terms of livestock and poultry farming not only at the national level but also at the province level. While the species constitute and their respective growth rates of the pollutants can be also characterized by spatial disparity across regions, canonical correlation analysis shows that the observed regional patterns of the pollutants can be largely explained by the resource endowment factors (positive effects) and the developmental level factors (negative effects). In addition, we found that the development of livestock and poultry farming is negatively associated with the growing rate of both the resource endowment and the socioeconomic factors. This indicates that there exist different driving patterns in the gross and increment of the pollutant productions. Our research has significant implications for the appropriate environmental protection policy formulation and implementation in livestock sector.

Environmental impacts of high penetration renewable energy scenarios for Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berrill, Peter; Arvesen, Anders; Scholz, Yvonne; Gils, Hans Christian; Hertwich, Edgar G.

2016-01-01

The prospect of irreversible environmental alterations and an increasingly volatile climate pressurises societies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, thereby mitigating climate change impacts. As global electricity demand continues to grow, particularly if considering a future with increased electrification of heat and transport sectors, the imperative to decarbonise our electricity supply becomes more urgent. This letter implements outputs of a detailed power system optimisation model into a prospective life cycle analysis framework in order to present a life cycle analysis of 44 electricity scenarios for Europe in 2050, including analyses of systems based largely on low-carbon fossil energy options (natural gas, and coal with carbon capture and storage (CCS)) as well as systems with high shares of variable renewable energy (VRE) (wind and solar). VRE curtailments and impacts caused by extra energy storage and transmission capabilities necessary in systems based on VRE are taken into account. The results show that systems based largely on VRE perform much better regarding climate change and other impact categories than the investigated systems based on fossil fuels. The climate change impacts from Europe for the year 2050 in a scenario using primarily natural gas are 1400 Tg CO2-eq while in a scenario using mostly coal with CCS the impacts are 480 Tg CO2-eq. Systems based on renewables with an even mix of wind and solar capacity generate impacts of 120-140 Tg CO2-eq. Impacts arising as a result of wind and solar variability do not significantly compromise the climate benefits of utilising these energy resources. VRE systems require more infrastructure leading to much larger mineral resource depletion impacts than fossil fuel systems, and greater land occupation impacts than systems based on natural gas. Emissions and resource requirements from wind power are smaller than from solar power.

Exploring New Models for Utility Distributed Energy Resource Planning and Integration: SMUD and Con Edison

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

2018-01-23

As a result of the rapid growth of renewable energy in the United States, the U.S. electric grid is undergoing a monumental shift away from its historical status quo. These changes are occurring at both the centralized and local levels and have been driven by a number of different factors, including large declines in renewable energy costs, federal and state incentives and mandates, and advances in the underlying technology. Higher levels of variable-generation renewable energy, however, may require new and increasingly complex methods for utilities to operate and maintain the grid while also attempting to limit the costly build-out ofmore » supporting grid infrastructure.« less

Why is seed production so variable among individuals? A ten-year study with oaks reveals the importance of soil environment.

PubMed

Pérez-Ramos, Ignacio M; Aponte, Cristina; García, Luis V; Padilla-Díaz, Carmen M; Marañón, Teodoro

2014-01-01

Mast-seeding species exhibit not only a large inter-annual variability in seed production but also considerable variability among individuals within the same year. However, very little is known about the causes and consequences for population dynamics of this potentially large between-individual variability. Here, we quantified seed production over ten consecutive years in two Mediterranean oak species - the deciduous Quercus canariensis and the evergreen Q. suber - that coexist in forests of southern Spain. First, we calibrated likelihood models to identify which abiotic and biotic variables best explain the magnitude (hereafter seed productivity) and temporal variation of seed production at the individual level (hereafter CVi), and infer whether reproductive effort results from the available soil resources for the plant or is primarily determined by selectively favoured strategies. Second, we explored the contribution of between-individual variability in seed production as a potential mechanism of satiation for predispersal seed predators. We found that Q. canariensis trees inhabiting moister and more fertile soils were more productive than those growing in more resource-limited sites. Regarding temporal variation, individuals of the two studied oak species inhabiting these resource-rich environments also exhibited larger values of CVi. Interestingly, we detected a satiating effect on granivorous insects at the tree level in Q. suber, which was evident in those years where between-individual variability in acorn production was higher. These findings suggest that individual seed production (both in terms of seed productivity and inter-annual variability) is strongly dependent on soil resource heterogeneity (at least for one of the two studied oak species) with potential repercussions for recruitment and population dynamics. However, other external factors (such as soil heterogeneity in pathogen abundance) or certain inherent characteristics of the tree might be also involved in this process.

Qualitative Contrast between Knowledge-Limited Mixed-State and Variable-Resources Models of Visual Change Detection

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nosofsky, Robert M.; Donkin, Chris

2016-01-01

We report an experiment designed to provide a qualitative contrast between knowledge-limited versions of mixed-state and variable-resources (VR) models of visual change detection. The key data pattern is that observers often respond "same" on big-change trials, while simultaneously being able to discriminate between same and small-change…

New Private Housing Building Permits in 1997

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Variable was created as part of a set of indicators that demonstrate links between the condition of natural areas and human concerns and that quantify dependencies on resources. More information about these resources, including the variables used in this study, may be found here: https://edg.epa.gov/data/Public/ORD/NERL/ReVA/ReVA_Data.zip.

Children under 5 in Families and Subfamilies in 1990

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Variable was created as part of a set of indicators that demonstrate links between the condition of natural areas and human concerns and that quantify dependencies on resources. More information about these resources, including the variables used in this study, may be found here: https://edg.epa.gov/data/Public/ORD/NERL/ReVA/ReVA_Data.zip.

Using simulation and data envelopment analysis to evaluate Iraqi regions in producing strategic crops

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaloob, Ibrahim Z.; Ramli, Razamin; Nawawi, Mohd Kamal Mohd

2014-12-01

Productivity of the agriculture sector in Iraq has yet to reach an acceptable level. In this paper, we introduce a practical method to help manage Iraqi agriculture sector to control resources and increase production to meet the modern century requirements of good crops. These important resources are identified as water, fertilizer, natural fertilizer, pesticides and labour. The current agricultural patterns in Iraq affect the strategic crops cultivation in the country and lessen agricultural production to some life-threatening limits. Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), which is a non-parametric tool, is proposed to identify solutions that can maximize farmers' net benefit making an optimal use of the five resources. This model also improves optimal mix of the resources. In reference to the production of each one of the three strategic crops in Iraq, the DEA model is used to find the efficiency of one region among four others in its agriculture sector, with the main problem being the constraint in the number of lands available in the situation. Hence, the simulation technique is used to generate additional regions to the four main regions adopted. This is to resolve the constriction of DEA when the decision making unit is less than the number of variables (outputs and inputs). The result is expected to show the efficiency of each of the evaluated region.

Characterising the spatial variability of the tidal stream energy resource from floating turbines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ward, Sophie; Neill, Simon; Robins, Peter

2017-04-01

The shelf seas, in particular the northwest European shelf seas surrounding the UK, contain significant tidal power potential. Tidal stream energy is both predictable and reliable providing that sites are well-selected based upon the hydrodynamic regime and the device specifics. In this high resolution three-dimensional tidal modelling study, we investigate how the tidal stream resource around the Welsh coast (UK) varies with water depth and location, with particular focus on the Pembrokeshire region. The potential extractable energy for a floating tidal stream energy converter is compared with that for a bottom-fixed device, highlighting the need to vary the resource characterisation criteria based on device specifics. We demonstrate how small variations in the tidal current speeds - with hub depth or due to tidal asymmetry - can lead to substantial variations in potential power output. Further, the results indicate that power generation from floating tidal energy converters will be more significantly influenced by tidal elevations in regions characterised by a lower tidal range (more progressive waves) than regions that experience a high tidal range (standing waves). As numerical modelling capacity improves and tidal stream energy converter technologies develop, ongoing improved quantification of the tidal resource is needed, as well as consideration of the possible feedbacks of the devices and energy extraction on the hydrodynamic regime and the surrounding area.

Resource Recovery from Wastewater by Biological Technologies: Opportunities, Challenges, and Prospects.

PubMed

Puyol, Daniel; Batstone, Damien J; Hülsen, Tim; Astals, Sergi; Peces, Miriam; Krömer, Jens O

2016-01-01

Limits in resource availability are driving a change in current societal production systems, changing the focus from residues treatment, such as wastewater treatment, toward resource recovery. Biotechnological processes offer an economic and versatile way to concentrate and transform resources from waste/wastewater into valuable products, which is a prerequisite for the technological development of a cradle-to-cradle bio-based economy. This review identifies emerging technologies that enable resource recovery across the wastewater treatment cycle. As such, bioenergy in the form of biohydrogen (by photo and dark fermentation processes) and biogas (during anaerobic digestion processes) have been classic targets, whereby, direct transformation of lipidic biomass into biodiesel also gained attention. This concept is similar to previous biofuel concepts, but more sustainable, as third generation biofuels and other resources can be produced from waste biomass. The production of high value biopolymers (e.g., for bioplastics manufacturing) from organic acids, hydrogen, and methane is another option for carbon recovery. The recovery of carbon and nutrients can be achieved by organic fertilizer production, or single cell protein generation (depending on the source) which may be utilized as feed, feed additives, next generation fertilizers, or even as probiotics. Additionlly, chemical oxidation-reduction and bioelectrochemical systems can recover inorganics or synthesize organic products beyond the natural microbial metabolism. Anticipating the next generation of wastewater treatment plants driven by biological recovery technologies, this review is focused on the generation and re-synthesis of energetic resources and key resources to be recycled as raw materials in a cradle-to-cradle economy concept.

Resource Recovery from Wastewater by Biological Technologies: Opportunities, Challenges, and Prospects

PubMed Central

Puyol, Daniel; Batstone, Damien J.; Hülsen, Tim; Astals, Sergi; Peces, Miriam; Krömer, Jens O.

2017-01-01

Limits in resource availability are driving a change in current societal production systems, changing the focus from residues treatment, such as wastewater treatment, toward resource recovery. Biotechnological processes offer an economic and versatile way to concentrate and transform resources from waste/wastewater into valuable products, which is a prerequisite for the technological development of a cradle-to-cradle bio-based economy. This review identifies emerging technologies that enable resource recovery across the wastewater treatment cycle. As such, bioenergy in the form of biohydrogen (by photo and dark fermentation processes) and biogas (during anaerobic digestion processes) have been classic targets, whereby, direct transformation of lipidic biomass into biodiesel also gained attention. This concept is similar to previous biofuel concepts, but more sustainable, as third generation biofuels and other resources can be produced from waste biomass. The production of high value biopolymers (e.g., for bioplastics manufacturing) from organic acids, hydrogen, and methane is another option for carbon recovery. The recovery of carbon and nutrients can be achieved by organic fertilizer production, or single cell protein generation (depending on the source) which may be utilized as feed, feed additives, next generation fertilizers, or even as probiotics. Additionlly, chemical oxidation-reduction and bioelectrochemical systems can recover inorganics or synthesize organic products beyond the natural microbial metabolism. Anticipating the next generation of wastewater treatment plants driven by biological recovery technologies, this review is focused on the generation and re-synthesis of energetic resources and key resources to be recycled as raw materials in a cradle-to-cradle economy concept. PMID:28111567

Natural Resources Bibliography.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hoadley, Irene Braden

This bibliography presents a modern definition of the conceptual framework from which to view natural resources, and affords access to information which examines resources from the social scientists point of view. It presents five broad divisions of activity or variables which include (1) Natural and Human Resources, (2) Epistomological and…

CoalVal-A coal resource valuation program

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rohrbacher, Timothy J.; McIntosh, Gary E.

2010-01-01

CoalVal is a menu-driven Windows program that produces cost-of-mining analyses of mine-modeled coal resources. Geological modeling of the coal beds and some degree of mine planning, from basic prefeasibility to advanced, must already have been performed before this program can be used. United States Geological Survey mine planning is done from a very basic, prefeasibility standpoint, but the accuracy of CoalVal's output is a reflection of the accuracy of the data entered, both for mine costs and mine planning. The mining cost analysis is done by using mine cost models designed for the commonly employed, surface and underground mining methods utilized in the United States. CoalVal requires a Microsoft Windows? 98 or Windows? XP operating system and a minimum of 1 gigabyte of random access memory to perform operations. It will not operate on Microsoft Vista?, Windows? 7, or Macintosh? operating systems. The program will summarize the evaluation of an unlimited number of coal seams, haulage zones, tax entities, or other area delineations for a given coal property, coalfield, or basin. When the reader opens the CoalVal publication from the USGS website, options are provided to download the CoalVal publication manual and the CoalVal Program. The CoalVal report is divided into five specific areas relevant to the development and use of the CoalVal program: 1. Introduction to CoalVal Assumptions and Concepts. 2. Mine Model Assumption Details (appendix A). 3. CoalVal Project Tutorial (appendix B). 4. Program Description (appendix C). 5. Mine Model and Discounted Cash Flow Formulas (appendix D). The tutorial explains how to enter coal resource and quality data by mining method; program default values for production, operating, and cost variables; and ones own operating and cost variables into the program. Generated summary reports list the volume of resource in short tons available for mining, recoverable short tons by mining method; the seam or property being mined; operating cost per ton; and discounted cash flow cost per ton to mine and process the resources. Costs are calculated as loaded in a unit train, free-on-board the tipple, at a rate of return prescribed by the evaluator. The recoverable resources (in short tons) may be grouped by incremental cost over any range chosen by the user. For example, in the Gillette coalfield evaluation, the discounted cash flow mining cost (at an 8 percent rate of return) and its associated tonnage may be grouped by any applicable increment (for example, $0.10 per ton, $0.20 per ton, and so on) and using any dollar per ton range that is desired (for example, from $4.00 per ton to $15.00 per ton). This grouping ability allows the user to separate the coal reserves from the nonreserve resources and to construct cost curves to determine the effects of coal market fluctuations on the availability of coal for fuel whether for the generation of electricity or for coal-to-liquids processes. Coking coals are not addressed in this report.

Generating partially correlated noise--a comparison of methods.

PubMed

Hartmann, William M; Cho, Yun Jin

2011-07-01

There are three standard methods for generating two channels of partially correlated noise: the two-generator method, the three-generator method, and the symmetric-generator method. These methods allow an experimenter to specify a target cross correlation between the two channels, but actual generated noises show statistical variability around the target value. Numerical experiments were done to compare the variability for those methods as a function of the number of degrees of freedom. The results of the experiments quantify the stimulus uncertainty in diverse binaural psychoacoustical experiments: incoherence detection, perceived auditory source width, envelopment, noise localization/lateralization, and the masking level difference. The numerical experiments found that when the elemental generators have unequal powers, the different methods all have similar variability. When the powers are constrained to be equal, the symmetric-generator method has much smaller variability than the other two. © 2011 Acoustical Society of America

Intergenerational equity and environmental restoration cleanup levels.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hocking, E. K.; Environmental Assessment

2001-01-01

The United States Department of Energy environmental restoration program faces difficult decisions about the levels of cleanup to be achieved at its many contaminated sites and has acknowledged the need for considering intergenerational equity in its decision making. Intergenerational equity refers to the fairness of access to resources across generations. Environmental restoration cleanup levels can have unintended and unfair consequences for future generations access to resources. The potentially higher costs associated with using low, non-risk-based cleanup levels for remediation may divert funding from other activities that could have a greater beneficial impact on future generations. Low, non-risk-based cleanup levels couldmore » also result in more damage to the nation's resources than would occur if a higher cleanup level were used. The loss or impairment of these resources could have an inequitable effect on future generations. However, intergenerational inequity could arise if sites are not completely restored and if access to and use of natural and cultural resources are unfairly limited as a result of residual contamination. In addition to concerns about creating possible intergenerational inequities related to selected cleanup levels, the tremendous uncertainties associated with sites and their restoration can lead site planners to rely on stewardship by default. An ill-conceived stewardship program can contribute to intergenerational inequity by limiting access to resources while passing on risks to future generations and not preparing them for those risks. This paper presents a basic model and process for designing stewardship programs that can achieve equity among generations.« less

Student resources for learning physics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hammer, David

2015-04-01

Careful observations of learners' reasoning belie simple characterizations of their knowledge or abilities: Students who appear to lack understanding or abilities at one moment show evidence of them at another. Detecting this variability generally requires close examination of what and how students are thinking, moment-to-moment, which makes research difficult. But the findings challenge unitary accounts of intelligence, stages of development, and misconceptions. Joe Redish and others have been working from a more complex theoretical framework of innumerable, fine-grained cognitive structures we call ``resources.'' They are, roughly, ways of thinking people have that may apply or not in any particular moment. (Thinking about energy, for example, may involve resources for understanding location or conservation, or oscillations in time, or differential symmetry.) The variability we observe in student reasoning reflects variability in resource activation. Resources are to models of mind what partons used to be to models of hadrons: We know we should be thinking of entities and dynamics at a smaller scale than we've been considering, even if we don't know their particular properties. Understanding minds in this way has profound implications for research and for teaching.

Climate variability and demand growth as drivers of water scarcity in the Turkwel river basin: a bottom-up risk assessment of a data-sparse basin in Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirpa, F. A.; Dyer, E.; Hope, R.; Dadson, S. J.

2017-12-01

Sustainable water management and allocation are essential for maintaining human well-being, sustaining healthy ecosystems, and supporting steady economic growth. The Turkwel river basin, located in north-western Kenya, experiences a high level of water scarcity due to its arid climate, high rainfall variability, and rapidly growing water demand. However, due to sparse hydro-climatic data and limited literature, the water resources system of the basin has been poorly understood. Here we apply a bottom-up climate risk assessment method to estimate the resilience of the basin's water resources system to growing demand and climate stressors. First, using a water resource system model and historical climate data, we construct a climate risk map that depicts the way in which the system responds to climate change and variability. Then we develop a set of water demand scenarios to identify the conditions that potentially lead to the risk of unmet water demand and groundwater depletion. Finally, we investigate the impact of climate change and variability by stress testing these development scenarios against historically strong El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) years and future climate projections from multiple Global Circulation Models (GCMs). The results reveal that climate variability and increased water demand are the main drivers of water scarcity in the basin. Our findings show that increases in water demand due to expanded irrigation and population growth exert the strongest influence on the ability of the system to meet water resource supply requirements, and in all cases considered increase the impacts of droughts caused by future climate variability. Our analysis illustrates the importance of combining analysis of future climate risks with other development decisions that affect water resources planning. Policy and investment decisions which maximise water use efficiency in the present day are likely to impart resilience to climate change and variability under a wide range of future scenarios and therefore constitute low regret measures for climate adaptation.

Impact of Market Behavior, Fleet Composition, and Ancillary Services on Revenue Sufficiency

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Frew, Bethany; Gallo, Giulia; Brinkman, Gregory

Revenue insufficiency, or the missing money problem, occurs when the revenues that generators earn from the market are not sufficient to cover both fixed and variable costs to remain in the market and/or justify investments in new capacity, which may be needed for reliability. The near-zero marginal cost of variable renewable generators further exacerbates these revenue challenges. Estimating the extent of the missing money problem in current electricity markets is an important, nontrivial task that requires representing both how the power system operates and how market participants behave. This paper explores the missing money problem using a production cost modelmore » that represented a simplified version of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) energy-only market for the years 2012-2014. We evaluate how various market structures -- including market behavior, ancillary services, and changing fleet compositions -- affect net revenues in this ERCOT-like system. In most production cost modeling exercises, resources are assumed to offer their marginal capabilities at marginal costs. Although this assumption is reasonable for feasibility studies and long-term planning, it does not adequately consider the market behaviors that impact revenue sufficiency. In this work, we simulate a limited set of market participant strategic bidding behaviors by means of different sets of markups; these markups are applied to the true production costs of all gas generators, which are the most prominent generators in ERCOT. Results show that markups can help generators increase their net revenues overall, although net revenues may increase or decrease depending on the technology and the year under study. Results also confirm that conventional, variable-cost-based production cost simulations do not capture prices accurately, and this particular feature calls for proxies for strategic behaviors (e.g., markups) and more accurate representations of how electricity markets work. The analysis also shows that generators face revenue sufficiency challenges in this ERCOT-like energy-only market model; net revenues provided by the market in all base markup cases and sensitivity scenarios (except when a large fraction of the existing coal fleet is retired) are not sufficient to justify investments in new capacity for thermal and nuclear power units. Overall, the work described in this paper points to the need for improved behavioral models of electricity markets to more accurately study current and potential market design issues that could arise in systems with high penetrations of renewable generation.« less

Terrestrial Hydrological Data from NASA's Hydrology Data and Information Services Center (HDISC): Products, Services, and Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fang, Hongliang; Beaudoing, Hiroko K.; Mocko, David M.; Rodell, Matthew; Teng, Bill; Vollmer, Bruce

2010-01-01

Terrestrial hydrological variables are important in global hydrology, climate, and carbon cycle studies. The North American and Global Land Data Assimilation Systems (NLDAS and GLDAS, respectively) have been generating a series of land surface states (soil moisture, snow, and temperature) and fluxes (evapotranspiration, radiation, and heat flux) variables. These data, hosted at and available from NASA s Hydrology Data and Information Services Center (HDISC), include the NLDAS hourly 1/8 degree products and the GLDAS 3-hourly 0.25 and 1.0 degree products. HDISC provides easy access and visualization and analysis capabilities for these products, thus reducing the time and resources spent by scientists on data management and facilitating hydrological research. Users can perform spatial and parameter subsetting, data format transformation, and data analysis operations without needing to first download the data. HDISC is continually being developed as a data and services portal that supports weather and climate forecasts, and water and energy cycle research.

Second law analysis of advanced power generation systems using variable temperature heat sources

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bliem, C.J.; Mines, G.L.

1990-01-01

Many systems produce power using variable temperature (sensible) heat sources. The Heat Cycle Research Program is currently investigating the potential improvements to such power cycles utilizing moderate temperature geothermal resources to produce electrical power. It has been shown that mixtures of saturated hydrocarbons (alkanes) or halogenated hydrocarbons operating with a supercritical Rankine cycle gave improved performance over boiling Rankine cycles with the pure working fluids for typical applications. Recently, in addition to the supercritical Rankine Cycle, other types of cycles have been proposed for binary geothermal service. This paper explores the limits on efficiency of a feasible plant and discussesmore » the methods used in these advanced concept plants to achieve the maximum possible efficiency. The advanced plants considered appear to be approaching the feasible limit of performance so that the designer must weigh all considerations to fine the best plant for a given service. These results would apply to power systems in other services as well as to geothermal power plants. 17 refs., 15 figs.« less

Competitive Advantage in Intercollegiate Athletics: Role of Intangible Resources

PubMed Central

Won, Doyeon; Chelladurai, Packianathan

2016-01-01

The present research explored the dynamics of competitive advantages in intercollegiate athletics by investigating the contribution of intangible resources (i.e., athletic and academic reputations) on the generation of more tangible resources (i.e., human and financial resources), which in turn influence the athletic performance (i.e., winning record) and academic performance (i.e., graduation rates), and gender equity. The research was based entirely on archival data of 324 NCAA Division I member institutions. The results of the SEM supported the study’s basic arguments that tangible resources are the sources of competitive advantages in Division I intercollegiate athletics, and that intangible resources contribute to the generation of tangible resources. PMID:26731118

Protein Bioinformatics Databases and Resources

PubMed Central

Chen, Chuming; Huang, Hongzhan; Wu, Cathy H.

2017-01-01

Many publicly available data repositories and resources have been developed to support protein related information management, data-driven hypothesis generation and biological knowledge discovery. To help researchers quickly find the appropriate protein related informatics resources, we present a comprehensive review (with categorization and description) of major protein bioinformatics databases in this chapter. We also discuss the challenges and opportunities for developing next-generation protein bioinformatics databases and resources to support data integration and data analytics in the Big Data era. PMID:28150231

National-Scale Wind Resource Assessment for Power Generation (Presentation)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Baring-Gould, E. I.

2013-08-01

This presentation describes the current standards for conducting a national-scale wind resource assessment for power generation, along with the risk/benefit considerations to be considered when beginning a wind resource assessment. The presentation describes changes in turbine technology and viable wind deployment due to more modern turbine technology and taller towers and shows how the Philippines national wind resource assessment evolved over time to reflect changes that arise from updated technologies and taller towers.

Evidence For Decadal and Century Scale Climate and Oceanic Variability in the Guaymas Basin, Gulf of California, Over the Last Millenium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pineda, L.; Ravelo, A. C.; Aiello, I. W.; Stewart, Z.; Sauthoff, W.

2015-12-01

Linda Pineda1Ana Christina Ravelo2Ivano Aiello3Zach Stewart2Wilson Sauthoff2 Earth and Planetary Sciences Department, UCSC Ocean Sciences Department, UCSC Moss Landing Marine Lab Natural climate change affects coastal water resources, human land use, and marine biological productivity. In particular, the seasonal migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is influenced by changes in global-scale temperature and pressure gradients and is responsible for spatial changes in summertime rainfall in Mesoamerica impacting regional water resources and the strength of upwelling. In October 2014, aboard the Research Vessel El Puma, a 3.9 meter long core (G14-P12) was recovered from the Northeast flank of the Guaymas Basin in the Gulf of California within the oxygen minimum zone (27˚52.11'N, 111˚41.51'W, water depth of 677m) to investigate changes in seasonal upwelling and Central Mexico rainfall over the last ~1000 years. The age model was developed using Pb210, C14 and lamination counting. The time interval includes the Little Ice Age and the Medieval Warm Period. Biological productivity and precipitation proxy records were produced using an X-Ray Fluorescence (XRF) core-scanner and a color line scanner to generate a record of bulk chemistry and color reflectance. The records indicate marked decadal and centennial scale variability in the lithologic composition of the sediment superimposed on millimeter-scale variability that reflects the presence of seasonally laminated sediments. Nitrogen isotopic and nitrogen weight % measurements were used, in combination with the scanned data, to interpret changes in nitrate utilization and biological productivity. These new records will have broad implications on the link between regional coastal environmental conditions in the Gulf of California and global climate change.

Effects of Maternal Nutrition, Resource Use and Multi-Predator Risk on Neonatal White-Tailed Deer Survival

PubMed Central

Duquette, Jared F.; Belant, Jerrold L.; Svoboda, Nathan J.; Beyer, Dean E.; Lederle, Patrick E.

2014-01-01

Growth of ungulate populations is typically most sensitive to survival of neonates, which in turn is influenced by maternal nutritional condition and trade-offs in resource selection and avoidance of predators. We assessed whether resource use, multi-predator risk, maternal nutritional effects, hiding cover, or interactions among these variables best explained variation in daily survival of free-ranging neonatal white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) during their post-partum period (14 May–31 Aug) in Michigan, USA. We used Cox proportional hazards mixed-effects models to assess survival related to covariates of resource use, composite predation risk of 4 mammalian predators, fawn body mass at birth, winter weather, and vegetation growth phenology. Predation, particularly from coyotes (Canis latrans), was the leading cause of mortality; however, an additive model of non-ideal resource use and maternal nutritional effects explained 71% of the variation in survival. This relationship suggested that dams selected areas where fawns had poor resources, while greater predation in these areas led to additive mortalities beyond those related to resource use alone. Also, maternal nutritional effects suggested that severe winters resulted in dams producing smaller fawns, which decreased their likelihood of survival. Fawn resource use appeared to reflect dam avoidance of lowland forests with poor forage and greater use by wolves (C. lupus), their primary predator. While this strategy led to greater fawn mortality, particularly by coyotes, it likely promoted the life-long reproductive success of dams because many reached late-age (>10 years old) and could have produced multiple generations of fawns. Studies often link resource selection and survival of ungulates, but our results suggested that multiple factors can mediate that relationship, including multi-predator risk. We emphasize the importance of identifying interactions among biological and environmental factors when assessing survival of ungulates. PMID:24968318

Future trends in power generation cost by power resource

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

1992-08-01

The Japan Energy Economy Research Institute has been evaluating power generation cost by each power resource every year focusing on nuclear power generation. The Institute is surveying the cost evaluations by power resources in France, Britain and the U.S.A., the nuclear generation advanced nations. The OECD is making power generation cost estimation using a hypothesis which uniforms basically the conditions varying in different member countries. In model power generation cost calculations conducted by the Ministry of International Trade and Industry of Japan, nuclear power generation is the most economical system in any fiscal year. According to recent calculations performed by the Japan Energy Economy Research Institute, the situation is such that it is difficult to distinguish the economical one from others among the power generation systems in terms of generation costs except for thermal power generation. Economic evaluations are given on estimated power generation costs based on construction costs for nuclear and thermal power plants, nuclear fuel cycling cost, and fuel cost data on petroleum, LNG and coal. With regard to the future trends, scenario analyses are made on generation costs, that assume fluctuations in fuel prices and construction costs, the important factors to give economic influence on power generation.

Energy density and variability in abundance of pigeon guillemot prey: Support for the quality-variability trade-off hypothesis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Litzow, Michael A.; Piatt, John F.; Abookire, Alisa A.; Robards, Martin D.

2004-01-01

1. The quality-variability trade-off hypothesis predicts that (i) energy density (kJ g-1) and spatial-temporal variability in abundance are positively correlated in nearshore marine fishes; and (ii) prey selection by a nearshore piscivore, the pigeon guillemot (Cepphus columba Pallas), is negatively affected by variability in abundance. 2. We tested these predictions with data from a 4-year study that measured fish abundance with beach seines and pigeon guillemot prey utilization with visual identification of chick meals. 3. The first prediction was supported. Pearson's correlation showed that fishes with higher energy density were more variable on seasonal (r = 0.71) and annual (r = 0.66) time scales. Higher energy density fishes were also more abundant overall (r = 0.85) and more patchy at a scale of 10s of km (r = 0.77). 4. Prey utilization by pigeon guillemots was strongly non-random. Relative preference, defined as the difference between log-ratio transformed proportions of individual prey taxa in chick diets and beach seine catches, was significantly different from zero for seven of the eight main prey categories. 5. The second prediction was also supported. We used principal component analysis (PCA) to summarize variability in correlated prey characteristics (energy density, availability and variability in abundance). Two PCA scores explained 32% of observed variability in pigeon guillemot prey utilization. Seasonal variability in abundance was negatively weighted by these PCA scores, providing evidence of risk-averse selection. Prey availability, energy density and km-scale variability in abundance were positively weighted. 6. Trophic interactions are known to create variability in resource distribution in other systems. We propose that links between resource quality and the strength of trophic interactions may produce resource quality-variability trade-offs.

Western Wind and Solar Integration Study Phase 2 (Presentation)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lew, D.; Brinkman, G.; Ibanez, E.

This presentation accompanies Phase 2 of the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study, a follow-on to Phase 1, which examined the operational impacts of high penetrations of variable renewable generation on the electric power system in the West and was one of the largest variable generation studies to date. High penetrations of variable generation can induce cycling of fossil-fueled generators. Cycling leads to wear-and-tear costs and changes in emissions. Phase 2 calculated these costs and emissions, and simulated grid operations for a year to investigate the detailed impact of variable generation on the fossil-fueled fleet. The presentation highlights the scopemore » of the study and results.« less

Matrix Converter Interface for a Wind Energy Conversion System: Issues and Limitations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patki, Chetan; Agarwal, Vivek

2009-08-01

Variable speed grid connected wind energy systems sometimes involve AC-AC power electronic interface between the generator and the grid. Matrix converter is an attractive option for such applications. Variable speed of the wind generator demands variable voltage variable frequency at the generator terminal. Matrix converter is used in this work to generate such a supply. Also, matrix converter can be appropriately controlled to compensate the grid for non-linear, reactive loads. However, any change of power factor on the grid side reflects on the voltage magnitude on the wind generator side. It is highlighted that this may contradict the maximum power point tracking control requirements. All the results of this work are presented.

Multiple and variable speed electrical generator systems for large wind turbines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Andersen, T. S.; Hughes, P. S.; Kirschbaum, H. S.; Mutone, G. A.

1982-01-01

A cost effective method to achieve increased wind turbine generator energy conversion and other operational benefits through variable speed operation is presented. Earlier studies of multiple and variable speed generators in wind turbines were extended for evaluation in the context of a specific large sized conceptual design. System design and simulation have defined the costs and performance benefits which can be expected from both two speed and variable speed configurations.

Joint Analysis of Strain and Parent-of-Origin Effects for Recombinant Inbred Intercrosses Generated from Multiparent Populations with the Collaborative Cross as an Example.

PubMed

Liu, Yanyan; Xiong, Sican; Sun, Wei; Zou, Fei

2018-02-02

Multiparent populations (MPP) have become popular resources for complex trait mapping because of their wider allelic diversity and larger population size compared with traditional two-way recombinant inbred (RI) strains. In mice, the collaborative cross (CC) is one of the most popular MPP and is derived from eight genetically diverse inbred founder strains. The strategy of generating RI intercrosses (RIX) from MPP in general and from the CC in particular can produce a large number of completely reproducible heterozygote genomes that better represent the (outbred) human population. Since both maternal and paternal haplotypes of each RIX are readily available, RIX is a powerful resource for studying both standing genetic and epigenetic variations of complex traits, in particular, the parent-of-origin (PoO) effects, which are important contributors to many complex traits. Furthermore, most complex traits are affected by >1 genes, where multiple quantitative trait locus mapping could be more advantageous. In this paper, for MPP-RIX data but taking CC-RIX as a working example, we propose a general Bayesian variable selection procedure to simultaneously search for multiple genes with founder allelic effects and PoO effects. The proposed model respects the complex relationship among RIX samples, and the performance of the proposed method is examined by extensive simulations. Copyright © 2018 Liu et al.

Sustainable Development and Energy Geotechnology Potential Roles for Geotechnical Engineering

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

FragaszyProgram Dire, Dr. R. J.; Santamarina, Carlos; Espinoza, N.

2011-01-01

The world is facing unprecedented challenges related to energy resources, global climate change, material use, and waste generation. Failure to address these challenges will inhibit the growth of the developing world and will negatively impact the standard of living and security of future generations in all nations. The solutions to these challenges will require multidisciplinary research across the social and physical sciences and engineering. Although perhaps not always recognized, geotechnical engineering expertise is critical to the solution of many energy and sustainability-related problems. Hence, geotechnical engineers and academicians have opportunity and responsibility to contribute to the solution of these worldwidemore » problems. Research will need to be extended to non-standard issues such as thermal properties of soils; sediment and rock response to extreme conditions and at very long time scales; coupled hydro-chemo-thermo-bio-mechanical processes; positive feedback systems; the development of discontinuities; biological modification of soil properties; spatial variability; and emergent phenomena. Clearly, the challenges facing geotechnical engineering in the future will require a much broader knowledge base than our traditional educational programs provide. The geotechnical engineering curricula, from undergraduate education through continuing professional education, must address the changing needs of a profession that will increasingly be engaged in alternative/renewable energy production; energy efficiency; sustainable design, enhanced and more efficient use of natural resources, waste management, and underground utilization.« less

New geothermal heat extraction process to deliver clean power generation

ScienceCinema

McGrail, Pete

2017-12-27

A new method for capturing significantly more heat from low-temperature geothermal resources holds promise for generating virtually pollution-free electrical energy. Scientists at the Department of Energys Pacific Northwest National Laboratory will determine if their innovative approach can safely and economically extract and convert heat from vast untapped geothermal resources. The goal is to enable power generation from low-temperature geothermal resources at an economical cost. In addition to being a clean energy source without any greenhouse gas emissions, geothermal is also a steady and dependable source of power.

Thermoelectric power generator for variable thermal power source

DOEpatents

Bell, Lon E; Crane, Douglas Todd

2015-04-14

Traditional power generation systems using thermoelectric power generators are designed to operate most efficiently for a single operating condition. The present invention provides a power generation system in which the characteristics of the thermoelectrics, the flow of the thermal power, and the operational characteristics of the power generator are monitored and controlled such that higher operation efficiencies and/or higher output powers can be maintained with variably thermal power input. Such a system is particularly beneficial in variable thermal power source systems, such as recovering power from the waste heat generated in the exhaust of combustion engines.

Regional droughts and food security relationships in the Zambezi River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tirivarombo, S.; Hughes, D. A.

Analyses of long records of rainfall data indicate that the African climate has always been variable both intra-seasonally and inter-seasonally. Associated with this variability are extreme flood and drought events that have impacted negatively on the availability and use of water resources. It is necessary to put into perspective the historical variability so as to provide a background against which future projections and a basis for adaptive management can be made. In Africa this process is complicated by the fact that data availability is sparse and of limited spatial coverage thus posing some degree of uncertainty. These limitations have in some cases compelled researchers to resort to different sources of data but the outcomes may be fraught with inconsistencies between the datasets. Three monthly rainfall data sets CRU, GHCN and locally gauged data for the period 1960-2002 were used to generate standardized precipitation indices (SPI) for a comparative analysis of an agricultural drought in relation to food security in selected parts of the Zambezi River Basin. The aim of the study was to calibrate a rainfall based drought index for crop production forecasts, to check whether the approach (using global data sets) could be used with climate change data for future predictions and to establish the best predictor combination of drought indices. Standardized Precipitation Indices (SPIs) appropriate to the life cycle of a crop were generated using the SPATSIM (spatial and time series information modeling) software package and these were examined for detectable trends during the planting and growing stages. FAO crop production statistics were used to validate the results. The results indicated that the SPI could be used as a drought monitoring tool if used in conjunction with other drought indices. There was no significant difference between the uses of different sets of data in the generation of the drought indices.

Long-term streamflow response to climatic variability in the Loess Plateau, China

Treesearch

Shenping Wang; Zhiqiang Zhang; Ge Sun; Steven G. McNulty; Huayong Zhang; Jianlao Li; Manliang Zhang

2008-01-01

The Loess Plateau region in northwestern China has experienced severe water resource shortages due to the combined impacts of climate and land use changes and water resource exploitation during the past decades. This study was designed to examine the impacts of climatic variability on streamflow characteristics of a 12-km2 watershed near Tianshui City, Gansu Province...

43 CFR 3211.17 - What is the royalty rate on geothermal resources produced from or attributable to my lease that...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... resources produced from or attributable to my lease that are used for commercial generation of electricity... electricity? (a) For leases issued on or after August 8, 2005 (other than leases issued in response to...) electricity generated by use of geothermal resources produced from or attributed to your lease, then: (i) For...

43 CFR 3211.17 - What is the royalty rate on geothermal resources produced from or attributable to my lease that...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... resources produced from or attributable to my lease that are used for commercial generation of electricity... electricity? (a) For leases issued on or after August 8, 2005 (other than leases issued in response to...) electricity generated by use of geothermal resources produced from or attributed to your lease, then: (i) For...

43 CFR 3211.17 - What is the royalty rate on geothermal resources produced from or attributable to my lease that...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... resources produced from or attributable to my lease that are used for commercial generation of electricity... electricity? (a) For leases issued on or after August 8, 2005 (other than leases issued in response to...) electricity generated by use of geothermal resources produced from or attributed to your lease, then: (i) For...

APGEN Version 5.0

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maldague, Pierre; Page, Dennis; Chase, Adam

2005-01-01

Activity Plan Generator (APGEN), now at version 5.0, is a computer program that assists in generating an integrated plan of activities for a spacecraft mission that does not oversubscribe spacecraft and ground resources. APGEN generates an interactive display, through which the user can easily create or modify the plan. The display summarizes the plan by means of a time line, whereon each activity is represented by a bar stretched between its beginning and ending times. Activities can be added, deleted, and modified via simple mouse and keyboard actions. The use of resources can be viewed on resource graphs. Resource and activity constraints can be checked. Types of activities, resources, and constraints are defined by simple text files, which the user can modify. In one of two modes of operation, APGEN acts as a planning expert assistant, displaying the plan and identifying problems in the plan. The user is in charge of creating and modifying the plan. In the other mode, APGEN automatically creates a plan that does not oversubscribe resources. The user can then manually modify the plan. APGEN is designed to interact with other software that generates sequences of timed commands for implementing details of planned activities.

JIGSAW: Preference-directed, co-operative scheduling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Linden, Theodore A.; Gaw, David

1992-01-01

Techniques that enable humans and machines to cooperate in the solution of complex scheduling problems have evolved out of work on the daily allocation and scheduling of Tactical Air Force resources. A generalized, formal model of these applied techniques is being developed. It is called JIGSAW by analogy with the multi-agent, constructive process used when solving jigsaw puzzles. JIGSAW begins from this analogy and extends it by propagating local preferences into global statistics that dynamically influence the value and variable ordering decisions. The statistical projections also apply to abstract resources and time periods--allowing more opportunities to find a successful variable ordering by reserving abstract resources and deferring the choice of a specific resource or time period.

Variable Cycle Intake for Reverse Core Engine

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chandler, Jesse M (Inventor); Staubach, Joseph B (Inventor); Suciu, Gabriel L (Inventor)

2016-01-01

A gas generator for a reverse core engine propulsion system has a variable cycle intake for the gas generator, which variable cycle intake includes a duct system. The duct system is configured for being selectively disposed in a first position and a second position, wherein free stream air is fed to the gas generator when in the first position, and fan stream air is fed to the gas generator when in the second position.

Visualization of the Eastern Renewable Generation Integration Study: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gruchalla, Kenny; Novacheck, Joshua; Bloom, Aaron

The Eastern Renewable Generation Integration Study (ERGIS), explores the operational impacts of the wide spread adoption of wind and solar photovoltaics (PV) resources in the U.S. Eastern Interconnection and Quebec Interconnection (collectively, EI). In order to understand some of the economic and reliability challenges of managing hundreds of gigawatts of wind and PV generation, we developed state of the art tools, data, and models for simulating power system operations using hourly unit commitment and 5-minute economic dispatch over an entire year. Using NREL's high-performance computing capabilities and new methodologies to model operations, we found that the EI, as simulated withmore » evolutionary change in 2026, could balance the variability and uncertainty of wind and PV at a 5-minute level under a variety of conditions. A large-scale display and a combination of multiple coordinated views and small multiples were used to visually analyze the four large highly multivariate scenarios with high spatial and temporal resolutions. state of the art tools, data, and models for simulating power system operations using hourly unit commitment and 5-minute economic dispatch over an entire year. Using NRELs high-performance computing capabilities and new methodologies to model operations, we found that the EI, as simulated with evolutionary change in 2026, could balance the variability and uncertainty of wind and PV at a 5-minute level under a variety of conditions. A large-scale display and a combination of multiple coordinated views and small multiples were used to visually analyze the four large highly multivariate scenarios with high spatial and temporal resolutions.« less

Unsaturated flow processes in structurally-variable pathways in wildfire-affected soils and ash

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ebel, B. A.

2016-12-01

Prediction of flash flood and debris flow generation in wildfire-affected soils and ash hinges on understanding unsaturated flow processes. Water resources issues, such as groundwater recharge, also rely on our ability to quantify subsurface flow. Soil-hydraulic property data provide insight into unsaturated flow processes and timescales. A literature review and synthesis of existing data from the literature for wildfire-affected soils, including ash and unburned soils, facilitated calculating metrics and timescales of hydrologic response related to infiltration and surface runoff generation. Sorptivity (S) and the Green-Ampt wetting front parameter (Ψf) were significantly lower in burned soils compared to unburned soils, while field-saturated hydraulic conductivity (Kfs) was not significantly different. The magnitude and duration of the influence of capillarity was substantially reduced in burned soils, leading to faster ponding times in response to rainfall. Ash had large values of S and Kfs compared to unburned and burned soils but intermediate values of Ψf, suggesting that ash has long ponding times in response to rainfall. The ratio of S2/Kfs was nearly constant ( 100 mm) for unburned soils, but was more variable in burned soils. Post-wildfire changes in this ratio suggested that unburned soils had a balance between gravity and capillarity contributions to infiltration, which may depend on soil organic matter, while burning shifted infiltration more towards gravity contributions by reducing S. Taken together, the changes in post-wildfire soil-hydraulic properties increased the propensity for surface runoff generation and may have enhanced subsurface preferential flow through pathways altered by wildfire.

Individual-level social capital and self-rated health in Japan: an application of the Resource Generator.

PubMed

Kobayashi, Tomoko; Kawachi, Ichiro; Iwase, Toshihide; Suzuki, Etsuji; Takao, Soshi

2013-05-01

Despite accumulating evidence of associations between social capital and health in public health research, a criticism of the field has been that researchers have exclusively focused on concepts of social cohesion to the exclusion of individual-level approaches. In the present study, we evaluated the association between social capital measured by the Resource Generator (an individual-level assessment of access to social capital) and self-rated health among Japanese population in a cross-sectional study. A postal survey of 4000 randomly selected residents in Okayama City (western Japan) was conducted in February 2009. We divided the overall scores from the Resource Generator Japan scale into quartiles. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for self-rated health were calculated separately by sex. Individuals with the highest quartile of scores had significantly lower odds of poor health compared to the lowest group after covariate adjustment among both men and women (men; OR: 0.45, 95% CI: 0.24-0.86, women; OR: 0.44, 95% CI: 0.25-0.79, respectively) and there were also significant dose-response relationships. In the sub-domains of Resource Generator Japan scale, a differential pattern was observed by sex. Women showed a clear dose-response relationship with health across all four sub-scales (domestic resources, expert advice, personal skills, and problem solving resources). In contrast, only the domain of expert advice exhibited a strong association with men's health. Among both men and women individual-level social capital measured by the Resource Generator was related to reduced odds of poor health even after taking into account individual confounders. Although we cannot exclude reverse causation due to the cross-sectional design, our study adds to the accumulating evidence of the potential utility of the Resource Generator for evaluating the relationship between individual-level access to social capital and health. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Phase transitions in adaptive competitive environments: Theories and applications of the minority game

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yi

It is of great scientific significance to study the complex systems of agents with adaptive strategies competing for resources. In many of such systems in social and biological environments, agents succeed by making innovative choices. In this thesis, we model this behavior by presenting the results and analysis of a class of games in which heterogeneous agents are rewarded for being in a minority group. Each agent possesses a number of fixed strategies, each of which takes publicly available information as input to predict next group. Commonly known as the minority game, this simple model manifests a maladaptive, informationally efficient phase in which the system performs poorly at generating resources and an inefficient phase in which there is an emergent cooperation among the agents, and the system more effectively generates resources. The best emergent coordination is achieved at the phase transition, which occurs when z, the ratio of the dimension of the strategy space to the number of agents, is about 0.34. This model also has similar properties to a spin glass system thus statistical mechanics methods were employed to provide analytical results. The phase structure persists under variations such as variable payoff schemes and evolutionary mechanisms. Agents in real life are subject to local connectivity and incomplete information. A framework based on bi-graph was proposed to model these factors. In the context of economics, we proposed a stock market model incorporating delayed majority dynamics and agents holding heterogeneous expectations. We found that for a range of parameter settings, minority dynamics are dynamically induced, effectively reducing market volatility. Finally, we introduce a version of the minority game played by human participants. We observed emergent coordination of players' choices leading to increased average reward. Furthermore, players with the simplest strategies reap the most wealth.

Estimating Catchment-Scale Snowpack Variability in Complex Forested Terrain, Valles Caldera National Preserve, NM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harpold, A. A.; Brooks, P. D.; Biederman, J. A.; Swetnam, T.

2011-12-01

Difficulty estimating snowpack variability across complex forested terrain currently hinders the prediction of water resources in the semi-arid Southwestern U.S. Catchment-scale estimates of snowpack variability are necessary for addressing ecological, hydrological, and water resources issues, but are often interpolated from a small number of point-scale observations. In this study, we used LiDAR-derived distributed datasets to investigate how elevation, aspect, topography, and vegetation interact to control catchment-scale snowpack variability. The study area is the Redondo massif in the Valles Caldera National Preserve, NM, a resurgent dome that varies from 2500 to 3430 m and drains from all aspects. Mean LiDAR-derived snow depths from four catchments (2.2 to 3.4 km^2) draining different aspects of the Redondo massif varied by 30%, despite similar mean elevations and mixed conifer forest cover. To better quantify this variability in snow depths we performed a multiple linear regression (MLR) at a 7.3 by 7.3 km study area (5 x 106 snow depth measurements) comprising the four catchments. The MLR showed that elevation explained 45% of the variability in snow depths across the study area, aspect explained 18% (dominated by N-S aspect), and vegetation 2% (canopy density and height). This linear relationship was not transferable to the catchment-scale however, where additional MLR analyses showed the influence of aspect and elevation differed between the catchments. The strong influence of North-South aspect in most catchments indicated that the solar radiation is an important control on snow depth variability. To explore the role of solar radiation, a model was used to generate winter solar forcing index (SFI) values based on the local and remote topography. The SFI was able to explain a large amount of snow depth variability in areas with similar elevation and aspect. Finally, the SFI was modified to include the effects of shading from vegetation (in and out of canopy), which further explained snow depth variability. The importance of SFI for explaining catchment-scale snow depth variability demonstrates that aspect is not a sufficient metric for direct radiation in complex terrain where slope and remote topographic shading are significant. Surprisingly, the net effects of interception and shading by vegetation on snow depths were minimal compared to elevation and aspect in these catchments. These results suggest that snowpack losses from interception may be balanced by increased shading to reduce the overall impacts from vegetation compared to topographic factors in this high radiation environment. Our analysis indicated that elevation and solar radiation are likely to control snow variability in larger catchments, with interception and shading from vegetation becoming more important at smaller scales.

Integration of soil moisture and geophysical datasets for improved water resource management in irrigated systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Finkenbiner, Catherine; Franz, Trenton E.; Avery, William Alexander; Heeren, Derek M.

2016-04-01

Global trends in consumptive water use indicate a growing and unsustainable reliance on water resources. Approximately 40% of total food production originates from irrigated agriculture. With increasing crop yield demands, water use efficiency must increase to maintain a stable food and water trade. This work aims to increase our understanding of soil hydrologic fluxes at intermediate spatial scales. Fixed and roving cosmic-ray neutron probes were combined in order to characterize the spatial and temporal patterns of soil moisture at three study sites across an East-West precipitation gradient in the state of Nebraska, USA. A coarse scale map was generated for the entire domain (122 km2) at each study site. We used a simplistic data merging technique to produce a statistical daily soil moisture product at a range of key spatial scales in support of current irrigation technologies: the individual sprinkler (˜102m2) for variable rate irrigation, the individual wedge (˜103m2) for variable speed irrigation, and the quarter section (0.82 km2) for uniform rate irrigation. Additionally, we were able to generate a daily soil moisture product over the entire study area at various key modeling and remote sensing scales 12, 32, and 122 km2. Our soil moisture products and derived soil properties were then compared against spatial datasets (i.e. field capacity and wilting point) from the US Department of Agriculture Web Soil Survey. The results show that our "observed" field capacity was higher compared to the Web Soil Survey products. We hypothesize that our results, when provided to irrigators, will decrease water losses due to runoff and deep percolation as sprinkler managers can better estimate irrigation application depth and times in relation to soil moisture depletion below field capacity and above maximum allowable depletion. The incorporation of this non-contact and pragmatic geophysical method into current irrigation practices across the state and globe has the potential to greatly increase agricultural water use efficiency at scale.

Energy-Water Nexus Knowledge Discovery Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhaduri, B. L.; Foster, I.; Chandola, V.; Chen, B.; Sanyal, J.; Allen, M.; McManamay, R.

2017-12-01

As demand for energy grows, the energy sector is experiencing increasing competition for water. With increasing population and changing environmental, socioeconomic scenarios, new technology and investment decisions must be made for optimized and sustainable energy-water resource management. This requires novel scientific insights into the complex interdependencies of energy-water infrastructures across multiple space and time scales. An integrated data driven modeling, analysis, and visualization capability is needed to understand, design, and develop efficient local and regional practices for the energy-water infrastructure components that can be guided with strategic (federal) policy decisions to ensure national energy resilience. To meet this need of the energy-water nexus (EWN) community, an Energy-Water Knowledge Discovery Framework (EWN-KDF) is being proposed to accomplish two objectives: Development of a robust data management and geovisual analytics platform that provides access to disparate and distributed physiographic, critical infrastructure, and socioeconomic data, along with emergent ad-hoc sensor data to provide a powerful toolkit of analysis algorithms and compute resources to empower user-guided data analysis and inquiries; and Demonstration of knowledge generation with selected illustrative use cases for the implications of climate variability for coupled land-water-energy systems through the application of state-of-the art data integration, analysis, and synthesis. Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), in partnership with Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) and researchers affiliated with the Center for International Earth Science Information Partnership (CIESIN) at Columbia University and State University of New York-Buffalo (SUNY), propose to develop this Energy-Water Knowledge Discovery Framework to generate new, critical insights regarding the complex dynamics of the EWN and its interactions with climate variability and change. An overarching objective of this project is to integrate impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability (IAV) science with emerging data science to meet the data analysis needs of the U.S. Department of Energy and partner federal agencies with respect to the EWN.

Capacity Payments in Restructured Markets under Low and High Penetration Levels of Renewable Energy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jenkin, Thomas; Beiter, Philipp; Margolis, Robert

There is considerable debate about the degree to which restructured markets perform successfully in their use of capacity markets. In providing appropriate incentives for new and existing generation to meet reliability requirements, a variety of capacity market designs have developed across RTOs and ISOs in the United States and internationally. Growing levels of variable renewable energy (VRE) resources arguably create new challenges for capacity market designs, because VREs suppress energy prices while providing relatively little capacity, with these effects increase with VRE penetration. The purpose of this report is threefold. First, we provide a brief outline of the purpose andmore » design of various capacity markets under consideration using variable resource requirement (VRR) demand curves. Second, we discuss some of the main challenges raised in existing literature and a set of interviews that we conducted with market participants, regulators, and observers, including where there substantive differences in opinion. Third, we consider some of the challenges that may be specific to higher penetration levels of VRE. While the well known 'merit order' effect from VRE can be expected to suppress wholesale energy prices and revenue, this may be partly mitigated by increased capacity payments and the greater importance of AS payments for flexible capacity. The potential for greater reliance on capacity markets for generator revenues may amplify any inefficiency and costs associated with capacity price volatility and other suboptimal market design choices. Regulatory intervention to ensure adequate capacity payments and ancillary service revenue may become more prevalent under current market designs as the timescale for market signals shifts increasingly from near term (e.g., day-ahead in wholesale electricity markets) to longer term (annual intervals in capacity markets). Our review and discussion with market participants suggest substantive challenges may remain in implementing capacity markets that provide both adequate operational and investment incentives, particularly under high-VRE scenarios with greater need for flexible capacity.« less

Sustainability or Collapse: Interplay Between Decadal Climate Variability and Human Activities Matters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Y.; Hu, H.; Tian, F.

2016-12-01

The Aral Sea Crisis and the deterioration of Tarim River Basin are representative cases of emergent water deficit problems in arid areas. Comparing cases of water deficit problems in different regions and considering the in the perspective of socio-hydrology is helpful to obtain guidance on integrated management of arid area basins. Analyzing the interplay between decadal climate variability and human activities in both basins, the important role of human activities is observed. Decadal climate variability tempts people to adapt fast to increasing water resources and slowly to decreasing water resources, while using unsustainable technical measures to offset water shortage. Due to this asymmetry the situation deteriorates with technically enhanced capabilities of societies to exploit water resources, and more integrated long-term management capacity is in high demand.

New Earth-abundant Materials for Large-scale Solar Fuels Generation.

PubMed

Prabhakar, Rajiv Ramanujam; Cui, Wei; Tilley, S David

2018-05-30

The solar resource is immense, but the power density of light striking the Earth's surface is relatively dilute, necessitating large area solar conversion devices in order to harvest substantial amounts of power for renewable energy applications. In addition, energy storage is a key challenge for intermittent renewable resources such as solar and wind, which adds significant cost to these energies. As the majority of humanity's present-day energy consumption is based on fuels, an ideal solution is to generate renewable fuels from abundant resources such as sunlight and water. In this account, we detail our recent work towards generating highly efficient and stable Earth-abundant semiconducting materials for solar water splitting to generate renewable hydrogen fuel.

Method of operating a thermoelectric generator

DOEpatents

Reynolds, Michael G; Cowgill, Joshua D

2013-11-05

A method for operating a thermoelectric generator supplying a variable-load component includes commanding the variable-load component to operate at a first output and determining a first load current and a first load voltage to the variable-load component while operating at the commanded first output. The method also includes commanding the variable-load component to operate at a second output and determining a second load current and a second load voltage to the variable-load component while operating at the commanded second output. The method includes calculating a maximum power output of the thermoelectric generator from the determined first load current and voltage and the determined second load current and voltage, and commanding the variable-load component to operate at a third output. The commanded third output is configured to draw the calculated maximum power output from the thermoelectric generator.

Water supply, demand, and quality indicators for assessing the spatial distribution of water resource vulnerability in the Columbia River Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chang, Heejun; Jung, Il-Won; Strecker, Angela L.; Wise, Daniel; Lafrenz, Martin; Shandas, Vivek; ,; Yeakley, Alan; Pan, Yangdong; Johnson, Gunnar; Psaris, Mike

2013-01-01

We investigated water resource vulnerability in the US portion of the Columbia River basin (CRB) using multiple indicators representing water supply, water demand, and water quality. Based on the US county scale, spatial analysis was conducted using various biophysical and socio-economic indicators that control water vulnerability. Water supply vulnerability and water demand vulnerability exhibited a similar spatial clustering of hotspots in areas where agricultural lands and variability of precipitation were high but dam storage capacity was low. The hotspots of water quality vulnerability were clustered around the main stem of the Columbia River where major population and agricultural centres are located. This multiple equal weight indicator approach confirmed that different drivers were associated with different vulnerability maps in the sub-basins of the CRB. Water quality variables are more important than water supply and water demand variables in the Willamette River basin, whereas water supply and demand variables are more important than water quality variables in the Upper Snake and Upper Columbia River basins. This result suggests that current water resources management and practices drive much of the vulnerability within the study area. The analysis suggests the need for increased coordination of water management across multiple levels of water governance to reduce water resource vulnerability in the CRB and a potentially different weighting scheme that explicitly takes into account the input of various water stakeholders.

Wind Energy Resource Atlas of the Dominican Republic

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Elliott, D.; Schwartz, M.; George, R.

2001-10-01

The Wind Energy Resource Atlas of the Dominican Republic identifies the wind characteristics and the distribution of the wind resource in this country. This major project is the first of its kind undertaken for the Dominican Republic. The information contained in the atlas is necessary to facilitate the use of wind energy technologies, both for utility-scale power generation and off-grid wind energy applications. A computerized wind mapping system developed by NREL generated detailed wind resource maps for the entire country. This technique uses Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to produce high-resolution (1-square kilometer) annual average wind resource maps.

The experimental studies of operating modes of a diesel-generator set at variable speed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Obukhov, S. G.; Plotnikov, I. A.; Surkov, M. A.; Sumarokova, L. P.

2017-02-01

A diesel generator set working at variable speed to save fuel is studied. The results of experimental studies of the operating modes of an autonomous diesel generator set are presented. Areas for regulating operating modes are determined. It is demonstrated that the transfer of the diesel generator set to variable speed of the diesel engine makes it possible to improve the energy efficiency of the autonomous generator source, as well as the environmental and ergonomic performance of the equipment as compared with general industrial analogues.

The development of children's knowledge of attention and resource allocation in single and dual tasks.

PubMed

Dossett, D; Burns, B

2000-06-01

Developmental changes in kindergarten, 1st-, and 4th-grade children's knowledge about the variables that affect attention sharing and resource allocation were examined. Findings from the 2 experiments showed that kindergartners understood that person and strategy variables affect performance in attention-sharing tasks. However, knowledge of how task variables affect performance was not evident to them and was inconsistent for 1st and 4th graders. Children's knowledge about resource allocation revealed a different pattern and varied according to the dissimilarity of task demands in the attention-sharing task. In Experiment 1, in which the dual attention tasks were similar (i.e., visual detection), kindergarten and 1st-grade children did not differentiate performance in single and dual tasks. Fourth graders demonstrated knowledge that performance on a single task would be better than performance on the dual tasks for only 2 of the variables examined. In Experiment 2, in which the dual attention tasks were dissimilar (i.e., visual and auditory detection), kindergarten and 1st-grade children demonstrated knowledge that performance in the single task would be better than in the dual tasks for 1 of the task variables examined. However, 4th-grade children consistently gave higher ratings for performance on the single than on the dual attention tasks for all variables examined. These findings (a) underscore that children's meta-attention is not unitary and (b) demonstrate that children's knowledge about variables affecting attention sharing and resource allocation have different developmental pathways. Results show that knowledge about attention sharing and about the factors that influence the control of attention develops slowly and undergoes reorganization in middle childhood.

Strong Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen entanglement from a single squeezed light source

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Eberle, Tobias; Centre for Quantum Engineering and Space-Time Research - QUEST, Leibniz Universitaet Hannover, Welfengarten 1, D-30167 Hannover; Haendchen, Vitus

Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen (EPR) entanglement is a criterion that is more demanding than just certifying entanglement. We theoretically and experimentally analyze the low-resource generation of bipartite continuous-variable entanglement, as realized by mixing a squeezed mode with a vacuum mode at a balanced beam splitter, i.e., the generation of so-called vacuum-class entanglement. We find that in order to observe EPR entanglement the total optical loss must be smaller than 33.3 %. However, arbitrarily strong EPR entanglement is generally possible with this scheme. We realize continuous-wave squeezed light at 1550 nm with up to 9.9 dB of nonclassical noise reduction, which is the highestmore » value at a telecom wavelength so far. Using two phase-controlled balanced homodyne detectors we observe an EPR covariance product of 0.502{+-}0.006<1, where 1 is the critical value. We discuss the feasibility of strong Gaussian entanglement and its application for quantum key distribution in a short-distance fiber network.« less

Reuse of spent bleaching earth by polymerisation of residual organics.

PubMed

Beshara, Abdelhamid; Cheeseman, Christopher R

2014-10-01

Spent bleaching earth (SBE) is a waste generated by the edible oil industry that currently has limited options for beneficial reuse. In excess of ∼2 million tonnes per year of SBE is generated world-wide with major quantities available in the middle-east where significant volumes of edible oils are produced. Low pressure compaction followed by heat treatment at 150°C causes polymerisation of the residual organic components in SBE and this produces monolithic samples with high unconfined compressive strengths (54MPa). SBE can therefore be used to manufacture novel clay blocks for use in construction that are bonded by polymerised vegetable oil. This represents a new, innovative and resource efficient application for SBE. In this research, commercial SBE has been characterised and the effects of key processing variables (temperature and compaction pressure) on the compressive strength, porosity and density of the SBE clay blocks are reported and the mechanisms responsible for strength development are discussed. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Southwest Project: resource/institutional requirements analysis. Volume III. Systems integration studies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ormsby, L. S.; Sawyer, T. G.; Brown, Dr., M. L.

The purpose of this project is to provide information to DOE which can be used to establish its plans for accelerated commercialization and market penetration of solar electric generating plants in the southwestern region of the United States. The area of interest includes Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah, and sections of Oklahoma and Texas. The system integration study establishes the investment that utilities could afford to make in solar thermal, photovoltaic, and wind energy systems, and to assess the sensitivity of the break-even cost to critical variables including fuel escalation rates, fixed charge rates, load growth rates, cloudmore » cover, number of sites, load shape, and energy storage. This information will be used as input to Volume IV, Institutional Studies, one objective of which will be to determine the incentives required to close the gap between the break-even investment for the utilities of the Southwest and the estimated cost of solar generation.« less

Illegal use of natural resources in federal protected areas of the Brazilian Amazon

PubMed Central

Silva, Jose M.C.; Michalski, Fernanda

2017-01-01

Background The Brazilian Amazon is the world’s largest rainforest regions and plays a key role in biodiversity conservation as well as climate adaptation and mitigation. The government has created a network of protected areas (PAs) to ensure long-term conservation of the region. However, despite the importance of and positive advances in the establishment of PAs, natural resource depletion in the Brazilian Amazon is pervasive. Methods We evaluated a total of 4,243 official law enforcement records generated between 2010 and 2015 to understand the geographical distribution of the illegal use of resources in federal PAs in the Brazilian Amazon. We classified illegal activities into ten categories and used generalized additive models (GAMs) to evaluate the relationship between illegal use of natural resources inside PAs with management type, age of PAs, population density, and accessibility. Results We found 27 types of illegal use of natural resources that were grouped into 10 categories of illegal activities. Most infractions were related to suppression and degradation of vegetation (37.40%), followed by illegal fishing (27.30%) and hunting activities (18.20%). The explanatory power of the GAMs was low for all categories of illegal activity, with a maximum explained variation of 41.2% for illegal activities as a whole, and a minimum of 14.6% for hunting activities. Discussion These findings demonstrate that even though PAs are fundamental for nature conservation in the Brazilian Amazon, the pressures and threats posed by human activities include a broad range of illegal uses of natural resources. Population density up to 50 km from a PA is a key variable, influencing illegal activities. These threats endanger long-term conservation and many efforts are still needed to maintain PAs that are large enough and sufficiently intact to maintain ecosystem functions and protect biodiversity. PMID:29038758

Illegal use of natural resources in federal protected areas of the Brazilian Amazon.

PubMed

Kauano, Érico E; Silva, Jose M C; Michalski, Fernanda

2017-01-01

The Brazilian Amazon is the world's largest rainforest regions and plays a key role in biodiversity conservation as well as climate adaptation and mitigation. The government has created a network of protected areas (PAs) to ensure long-term conservation of the region. However, despite the importance of and positive advances in the establishment of PAs, natural resource depletion in the Brazilian Amazon is pervasive. We evaluated a total of 4,243 official law enforcement records generated between 2010 and 2015 to understand the geographical distribution of the illegal use of resources in federal PAs in the Brazilian Amazon. We classified illegal activities into ten categories and used generalized additive models (GAMs) to evaluate the relationship between illegal use of natural resources inside PAs with management type, age of PAs, population density, and accessibility. We found 27 types of illegal use of natural resources that were grouped into 10 categories of illegal activities. Most infractions were related to suppression and degradation of vegetation (37.40%), followed by illegal fishing (27.30%) and hunting activities (18.20%). The explanatory power of the GAMs was low for all categories of illegal activity, with a maximum explained variation of 41.2% for illegal activities as a whole, and a minimum of 14.6% for hunting activities. These findings demonstrate that even though PAs are fundamental for nature conservation in the Brazilian Amazon, the pressures and threats posed by human activities include a broad range of illegal uses of natural resources. Population density up to 50 km from a PA is a key variable, influencing illegal activities. These threats endanger long-term conservation and many efforts are still needed to maintain PAs that are large enough and sufficiently intact to maintain ecosystem functions and protect biodiversity.

ILDgenDB: integrated genetic knowledge resource for interstitial lung diseases (ILDs).

PubMed

Mishra, Smriti; Shah, Mohammad I; Sarkar, Malay; Asati, Nimisha; Rout, Chittaranjan

2018-01-01

Interstitial lung diseases (ILDs) are a diverse group of ∼200 acute and chronic pulmonary disorders that are characterized by variable amounts of inflammation, fibrosis and architectural distortion with substantial morbidity and mortality. Inaccurate and delayed diagnoses increase the risk, especially in developing countries. Studies have indicated the significant roles of genetic elements in ILDs pathogenesis. Therefore, the first genetic knowledge resource, ILDgenDB, has been developed with an objective to provide ILDs genetic data and their integrated analyses for the better understanding of disease pathogenesis and identification of diagnostics-based biomarkers. This resource contains literature-curated disease candidate genes (DCGs) enriched with various regulatory elements that have been generated using an integrated bioinformatics workflow of databases searches, literature-mining and DCGs-microRNA (miRNAs)-single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) association analyses. To provide statistical significance to disease-gene association, ILD-specificity index and hypergeomatric test scores were also incorporated. Association analyses of miRNAs, SNPs and pathways responsible for the pathogenesis of different sub-classes of ILDs were also incorporated. Manually verified 299 DCGs and their significant associations with 1932 SNPs, 2966 miRNAs and 9170 miR-polymorphisms were also provided. Furthermore, 216 literature-mined and proposed biomarkers were identified. The ILDgenDB resource provides user-friendly browsing and extensive query-based information retrieval systems. Additionally, this resource also facilitates graphical view of predicted DCGs-SNPs/miRNAs and literature associated DCGs-ILDs interactions for each ILD to facilitate efficient data interpretation. Outcomes of analyses suggested the significant involvement of immune system and defense mechanisms in ILDs pathogenesis. This resource may potentially facilitate genetic-based disease monitoring and diagnosis.Database URL: http://14.139.240.55/ildgendb/index.php.

Remembrance of phases past: An autoregressive method for generating realistic atmospheres in simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Srinath, Srikar; Poyneer, Lisa A.; Rudy, Alexander R.; Ammons, S. M.

2014-08-01

The advent of expensive, large-aperture telescopes and complex adaptive optics (AO) systems has strengthened the need for detailed simulation of such systems from the top of the atmosphere to control algorithms. The credibility of any simulation is underpinned by the quality of the atmosphere model used for introducing phase variations into the incident photons. Hitherto, simulations which incorporate wind layers have relied upon phase screen generation methods that tax the computation and memory capacities of the platforms on which they run. This places limits on parameters of a simulation, such as exposure time or resolution, thus compromising its utility. As aperture sizes and fields of view increase the problem will only get worse. We present an autoregressive method for evolving atmospheric phase that is efficient in its use of computation resources and allows for variability in the power contained in frozen flow or stochastic components of the atmosphere. Users have the flexibility of generating atmosphere datacubes in advance of runs where memory constraints allow to save on computation time or of computing the phase at each time step for long exposure times. Preliminary tests of model atmospheres generated using this method show power spectral density and rms phase in accordance with established metrics for Kolmogorov models.

Water governance: learning by developing adaptive capacity to incorporate climate variability and change.

PubMed

Kashyap, A

2004-01-01

There is increasing evidence that global climate variability and change is affecting the quality and availability of water supplies. Integrated water resources development, use, and management strategies, represent an effective approach to achieve sustainable development of water resources in a changing environment with competing demands. It is also a key to achieving the Millennium Development Goals. It is critical that integrated water management strategies must incorporate the impacts of climate variability and change to reduce vulnerability of the poor, strengthen sustainable livelihoods and support national sustainable development. UNDP's strategy focuses on developing adaptation in the water governance sector as an entry point within the framework of poverty reduction and national sustainable development. This strategy aims to strengthen the capacity of governments and civil society organizations to have access to early warning systems, ability to assess the impact of climate variability and change on integrated water resources management, and developing adaptation intervention through hands-on learning by undertaking pilot activities.

Toward a Geoscientific Semantic Web Based on How Geoscientists Talk Across Disciplines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peckham, S. D.

2015-12-01

Are there terms and scientific concepts from math and science that almost all geoscientists understand? Is there a limited set of terms, patterns and language elements that geoscientists use for efficient, unambiguous communication that could be used to describe the variables that they measure, store in data sets and use as model inputs and outputs? In this talk it will be argued that the answer to both questions is "yes" by drawing attention to many such patterns and then showing how they have been used to create a rich set of naming conventions for variables called the CSDMS Standard Names. Variables, which store numerical quantities associated with specific objects, are the fundamental currency of science. They are the items that are measured and saved in data sets, which may then be read into models. They are the inputs and outputs of models and the items exchanged between coupled models. They also star in the equations that summarize our scientific knowledge. Carefully constructed, unambiguous and unique labels for commonly used variables therefore provide an attractive mechanism for automatic semantic mediation when variables are to be shared between heterogeous resources. They provide a means to automatically check for semantic equivalence so that variables can be safely shared in resource compositions. A good set of standardized variable names can serve as the hub in a hub-and-spoke solution to semantic mediation, where the "internal vocabularies" of geoscience resources (i.e. data sets and models) are mapped to and from the hub to facilitate interoperability and data sharing. When built from patterns and terms that most geoscientists are already familiar with, these standardized variable names are then "readable" by both humans and machines. Despite the importance of variables in scientific work, most of the ontological work in the geosciences is focused at a higher level that supports finding resources (e.g data sets) but not on describing the contents of those resources. The CSDMS Standard Names have matured continuously since they were first introduced over three years ago. Many recent extensions and applications of them (e.g. different science domains, different projects, new rules, ontological work) as well as their compatibility with the International System of Quantities (ISO 80000) will be discussed.

Structural Optimization of a Force Balance Using a Computational Experiment Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parker, P. A.; DeLoach, R.

2002-01-01

This paper proposes a new approach to force balance structural optimization featuring a computational experiment design. Currently, this multi-dimensional design process requires the designer to perform a simplification by executing parameter studies on a small subset of design variables. This one-factor-at-a-time approach varies a single variable while holding all others at a constant level. Consequently, subtle interactions among the design variables, which can be exploited to achieve the design objectives, are undetected. The proposed method combines Modern Design of Experiments techniques to direct the exploration of the multi-dimensional design space, and a finite element analysis code to generate the experimental data. To efficiently search for an optimum combination of design variables and minimize the computational resources, a sequential design strategy was employed. Experimental results from the optimization of a non-traditional force balance measurement section are presented. An approach to overcome the unique problems associated with the simultaneous optimization of multiple response criteria is described. A quantitative single-point design procedure that reflects the designer's subjective impression of the relative importance of various design objectives, and a graphical multi-response optimization procedure that provides further insights into available tradeoffs among competing design objectives are illustrated. The proposed method enhances the intuition and experience of the designer by providing new perspectives on the relationships between the design variables and the competing design objectives providing a systematic foundation for advancements in structural design.

Optimal generator bidding strategies for power and ancillary services

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morinec, Allen G.

As the electric power industry transitions to a deregulated market, power transactions are made upon price rather than cost. Generator companies are interested in maximizing their profits rather than overall system efficiency. A method to equitably compensate generation providers for real power, and ancillary services such as reactive power and spinning reserve, will ensure a competitive market with an adequate number of suppliers. Optimizing the generation product mix during bidding is necessary to maximize a generator company's profits. The objective of this research work is to determine and formulate appropriate optimal bidding strategies for a generation company in both the energy and ancillary services markets. These strategies should incorporate the capability curves of their generators as constraints to define the optimal product mix and price offered in the day-ahead and real time spot markets. In order to achieve such a goal, a two-player model was composed to simulate market auctions for power generation. A dynamic game methodology was developed to identify Nash Equilibria and Mixed-Strategy Nash Equilibria solutions as optimal generation bidding strategies for two-player non-cooperative variable-sum matrix games with incomplete information. These games integrated the generation product mix of real power, reactive power, and spinning reserve with the generators's capability curves as constraints. The research includes simulations of market auctions, where strategies were tested for generators with different unit constraints, costs, types of competitors, strategies, and demand levels. Studies on the capability of large hydrogen cooled synchronous generators were utilized to derive useful equations that define the exact shape of the capability curve from the intersections of the arcs defined by the centers and radial vectors of the rotor, stator, and steady-state stability limits. The available reactive reserve and spinning reserve were calculated given a generator operating point in the P-Q plane. Four computer programs were developed to automatically perform the market auction simulations using the equal incremental cost rule. The software calculates the payoffs for the two competing competitors, dispatches six generators, and allocates ancillary services for 64 combinations of bidding strategies, three levels of system demand, and three different types of competitors. Matrix Game theory was utilized to calculate Nash Equilibrium solutions and mixed-strategy Nash solutions as the optimal generator bidding strategies. A method to incorporate ancillary services into the generation bidding strategy, to assure an adequate supply of ancillary services, and to allocate these necessary resources to the on-line units was devised. The optimal generator bid strategy in a power auction was shown to be the Nash Equilibrium solution found in two-player variable-sum matrix games.

Spatial Statistical and Modeling Strategy for Inventorying and Monitoring Ecosystem Resources at Multiple Scales and Resolution Levels

Treesearch

Robin M. Reich; C. Aguirre-Bravo; M.S. Williams

2006-01-01

A statistical strategy for spatial estimation and modeling of natural and environmental resource variables and indicators is presented. This strategy is part of an inventory and monitoring pilot study that is being carried out in the Mexican states of Jalisco and Colima. Fine spatial resolution estimates of key variables and indicators are outputs that will allow the...

Technology Performance Report: Duke Energy Notrees Wind Storage Demonstration Project

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wehner, Jeff; Mohler, David; Gibson, Stuart

2015-11-01

Duke Energy Renewables owns and operates the Notrees Wind Farm in west Texas’s Ector and Winkler counties. The wind farm, which was commissioned in April 2009, has a total capacity of 152.6 MW generated by 55 Vestas V82 turbines, one Vestas 1-V90 experimental turbine, and 40 GE 1.5-MW turbines. The Vestas V82 turbines have a generating capacity of 1.65 MW each, the Vestas V90 turbine has a generating capacity of 1.86 MW, and the GE turbines have a generating capacity of 1.5 MW each. The objective of the Notrees Wind Storage Demonstration Project is to validate that energy storage increasesmore » the value and practical application of intermittent wind generation and is commercially viable at utility scale. The project incorporates both new and existing technologies and techniques to evaluate the performance and potential of wind energy storage. In addition, it could serve as a model for others to adopt and replicate. Wind power resources are expected to play a significant part in reducing greenhouse gas emissions from electric power generation by 2030. However, the large variability and intermittent nature of wind presents a barrier to integrating it within electric markets, particularly when competing against conventional generation that is more reliable. In addition, wind power production often peaks at night or other times when demand and electricity prices are lowest. Energy storage systems can overcome those barriers and enable wind to become a valuable asset and equal competitor to conventional fossil fuel generation.« less

Managing water quality under drought conditions in the Llobregat River Basin.

PubMed

Momblanch, Andrea; Paredes-Arquiola, Javier; Munné, Antoni; Manzano, Andreu; Arnau, Javier; Andreu, Joaquín

2015-01-15

The primary effects of droughts on river basins include both depleted quantity and quality of the available water resources, which can render water resources useless for human needs and simultaneously damage the environment. Isolated water quality analyses limit the action measures that can be proposed. Thus, an integrated evaluation of water management and quality is warranted. In this study, a methodology consisting of two coordinated models is used to combine aspects of water resource allocation and water quality assessment. Water management addresses water allocation issues by considering the storage, transport and consumption elements. Moreover, the water quality model generates time series of concentrations for several pollutants according to the water quality of the runoff and the demand discharges. These two modules are part of the AQUATOOL decision support system shell for water resource management. This tool facilitates the analysis of the effects of water management and quality alternatives and scenarios on the relevant variables in a river basin. This paper illustrates the development of an integrated model for the Llobregat River Basin. The analysis examines the drought from 2004 to 2008, which is an example of a period when the water system was quantitative and qualitatively stressed. The performed simulations encompass a wide variety of water management and water quality measures; the results provide data for making informed decisions. Moreover, the results demonstrated the importance of combining these measures depending on the evolution of a drought event and the state of the water resources system. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Characterization of seasonal and inter-annual variability in global water bodies using annual MODIS water maps 2000 - 2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hubbard, A. B.; Carroll, M.

2017-12-01

Accurate maps of surface water resources are critical for long-term resource management, characterization of extreme events, and integration into various science products. Unfortunately, most of the currently available surface water products do not adequately represent inter- and intra-annual variation in water extent, resulting from both natural fluctuations in the hydrologic cycle and human activities. To capture this variability, annual water maps were generated from Terra MODIS data at 250 m resolution for the years 2000 through 2016, using the same algorithm employed to generate the previously released MOD44W Collection 5 static water mask (Carroll et al., 2009). Following efforts to verify the data and remove false positives, the final maps were submitted to the Land Processes DAAC for publication as MOD44W Collection 6.1. Analysis of these maps indicate that only about two thirds of inland water pixels were persistent throughout all 16 years of data, meaning that roughly one third of the surface water detected in this period displayed some degree of inter-annual variation. In addition to the annual datasets, water observations were aggregated by quarter for each year from 2003 through 2016 using the same algorithm and observations from both Terra and Aqua. Analysis of these seasonal maps is ongoing, but preliminary investigation indicates they capture dramatic intra-annual fluctuations of water extent in many regions. In cloudy regions, it is difficult or impossible to consistently measure this intra-annual variation without the twice-daily temporal resolution of the MODIS sensors. While the moderate spatial resolution of MODIS is a constraint, these datasets are suitable for studying such fluctuations in medium to large water bodies, or at regional to global scales. These maps also provide a baseline record of historical surface water resources, against which future change can be compared. Finally, comparisons with the MOD44W Collection 5 static water mask indicate that major changes have occurred in many areas since the early 2000s, rendering these maps an equally valuable update for static water masking applications. ReferencesCarroll, M.L., Townshend, J.R., DiMiceli, C.M., Noojipady, P., & Sohlberg, R.A. (2009). A new global raster water mask at 250 m resolution. Int J Digit Earth, 2, 291-308.

Assessment of future impacts of potential climate change scenarios on aquifer recharge in continental Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulido-Velazquez, David; Collados-Lara, Antonio-Juan; Alcalá, Francisco J.

2017-04-01

This research proposes and applies a method to assess potential impacts of future climatic scenarios on aquifer rainfall recharge in wide and varied regions. The continental Spain territory was selected to show the application. The method requires to generate future series of climatic variables (precipitation, temperature) in the system to simulate them within a previously calibrated hydrological model for the historical data. In a previous work, Alcalá and Custodio (2014) used the atmospheric chloride mass balance (CMB) method for the spatial evaluation of average aquifer recharge by rainfall over the whole of continental Spain, by assuming long-term steady conditions of the balance variables. The distributed average CMB variables necessary to calculate recharge were estimated from available variable-length data series of variable quality and spatial coverage. The CMB variables were regionalized by ordinary kriging at the same 4976 nodes of a 10 km x 10 km grid. Two main sources of uncertainty affecting recharge estimates (given by the coefficient of variation, CV), induced by the inherent natural variability of the variables and from mapping were segregated. Based on these stationary results we define a simple empirical rainfall-recharge model. We consider that spatiotemporal variability of rainfall and temperature are the most important climatic feature and variables influencing potential aquifer recharge in natural regime. Changes in these variables can be important in the assessment of future potential impacts of climatic scenarios over spatiotemporal renewable groundwater resource. For instance, if temperature increases, actual evapotranspitration (EA) will increases reducing the available water for others groundwater balance components, including the recharge. For this reason, instead of defining an infiltration rate coefficient that relates precipitation (P) and recharge we propose to define a transformation function that allows estimating the spatial distribution of recharge (both average value and its uncertainty) from the difference in P and EA in each area. A complete analysis of potential short-term (2016-2045) future climate scenarios in continental Spain has been performed by considering different sources of uncertainty. It is based on the historical climatic data for the period 1976-2005 and the climatic models simulations (for the control [1976-2005] and future scenarios [2016-2045]) performed in the frame of the CORDEX EU project. The most pessimistic emission scenario (RCP8.5) has been considered. For the RCP8.5 scenario we have analyzed the time series generated by simulating with 5 Regional Climatic models (CCLM4-8-17, RCA4, HIRHAM5, RACMO22E, and WRF331F) nested to 4 different General Circulation Models (GCMs). Two different conceptual approaches (bias correction and delta change techniques) have been applied to generate potential future climate scenarios from these data. Different ensembles of obtained time series have been proposed to obtain more representative scenarios by considering all the simulations or only those providing better approximations to the historical statistics based on a multicriteria analysis. This was a step to analyze future potential impacts on the aquifer recharge by simulating them within a rainfall-recharge model. This research has been supported by the CGL2013-48424-C2-2-R (MINECO) and the PMAFI/06/14 (UCAM) projects.

A Protocol for Generating and Exchanging (Genome-Scale) Metabolic Resource Allocation Models.

PubMed

Reimers, Alexandra-M; Lindhorst, Henning; Waldherr, Steffen

2017-09-06

In this article, we present a protocol for generating a complete (genome-scale) metabolic resource allocation model, as well as a proposal for how to represent such models in the systems biology markup language (SBML). Such models are used to investigate enzyme levels and achievable growth rates in large-scale metabolic networks. Although the idea of metabolic resource allocation studies has been present in the field of systems biology for some years, no guidelines for generating such a model have been published up to now. This paper presents step-by-step instructions for building a (dynamic) resource allocation model, starting with prerequisites such as a genome-scale metabolic reconstruction, through building protein and noncatalytic biomass synthesis reactions and assigning turnover rates for each reaction. In addition, we explain how one can use SBML level 3 in combination with the flux balance constraints and our resource allocation modeling annotation to represent such models.

Assessing Portuguese Guadiana Basin water management impacts under climate change and paleoclimate variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maia, Rodrigo; Oliveira, Bruno; Ramos, Vanessa; Brekke, Levi

2014-05-01

The water balance in each reservoir and the subsequent, related, water resource management decisions are, presently, highly information dependent and are therefore often limited to a reactive response (even if aimed towards preventing future issues regarding the water system). Taking advantage of the availability of scenarios for climate projections, it is now possible to estimate the likely future evolution of climate which represents an important stepping stone towards proactive, adaptative, water resource management. The purpose of the present study was to assess the potential effects of climate change in terms of temperature, precipitation, runoff and water availability/scarcity for application in water resource management decisions. The analysis here presented was applied to the Portuguese portion of the Guadiana River Basin, using a combination of observed climate and runoff data and the results of the Global Climate Models. The Guadiana River Basin was represented by its reservoirs on the Portuguese portion of the basin and, for the future period, an estimated value of the inflows originating in the Spanish part of the Basin. The change in climate was determined in terms of relative and absolute variations of climate (precipitation and temperature) and hydrology (runoff and water balance related information). Apart from the previously referred data, an hydrological model and a water management model were applied so as to obtain an extended range of data regarding runoff generation (calibrated to observed data) and water balance in the reservoirs (considering the climate change impacts in the inflows, outflows and water consumption). The water management model was defined in order to represent the reservoirs interaction including upstream to downstream discharges and water transfers. Under the present climate change context, decision-makers and stakeholders are ever more vulnerable to the uncertainties of climate. Projected climate in the Guadiana basin indicates an increase in temperatures and a reduction of the precipitation values which go well beyond the observed values and, therefore, must be forcefully included in any realistic proactive water resource management decision. Using the results of this study it is possible to estimate future water availability and consumption satisfaction allowing for the elaboration of informed management decisions. In this study, the CMIP 3 Global Climate Models were considered for the definition of the effects of climate change, using the median and extreme tendencies based on the range of variation of the multiple climate projection scenarios. The observed climate variability, along with these model-derived tendencies, were used to inform the hydrology and water management models for the historical and future periods, respectively. Additionally, for a more comprehensive analysis on climate variability, a stochastic model was implemented based on the paleoclimate variability obtained from tree-ring records.

The ANTARES observation network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dogliotti, Ana I.; Ulloa, Osvaldo; Muller-Karger, Frank; Hu, Chuanmin; Murch, Brock; Taylor, Charles; Yuras, Gabriel; Kampel, Milton; Lutz, Vivian; Gaeta, Salvador; Gagliardini, Domingo A.; Garcia, Carlos A. E.; Klein, Eduardo; Helbling, Walter; Varela, Ramon; Barbieri, Elena; Negri, Ruben; Frouin, Robert; Sathyendranath, Shubha; Platt, Trevor

2005-08-01

The ANTARES network seeks to understand the variability of the coastal environment on a continental scale and the local, regional, and global factors and processes that effect this change. The focus are coastal zones of South America and the Caribbean Sea. The initial approach includes developing time series of in situ and satellite-based environmental observations in coastal and oceanic regions. The network is constituted by experts that seek to exchange ideas, develop an infrastructure for mutual logistical and knowledge support, and link in situ time series of observations located around the Americas with real-time and historical satellite-derived time series of relevant products. A major objective is to generate information that will be distributed publicly and openly in the service of coastal ocean research, resource management, science-based policy making and education in the Americas. As a first stage, the network has linked oceanographic time series located in Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Venezuela. The group has also developed an online tool to examine satellite data collected with sensors such as NASA's MODIS. Specifically, continental-scale high-resolution (1 km) maps of chlorophyll and of sea surface temperature are generated and served daily over the web according to specifications of users within the ANTARES network. Other satellite-derived variables will be added as support for the network is solidified. ANTARES serves data and offers simple analysis tools that anyone can use with the ultimate goal of improving coastal assessments, management and policies.

Net Resource Assessment (NetRA): A Collaborative Effort Between USGS Science and Decisions Center, the Science Impact Laboratory for Policy and Economics (University of New Mexico) and Sandia National Laboratory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brookshire, D.; Bernknopf, R.; Adhikari, D. R.; Babis, C.; Broadbent, C. D.; Tidwell, V. C.

2015-12-01

Department of Interior Secretarial Order No. 3330, "… establishes a Department-wide mitigation strategy that will ensure consistency and efficiency in the review and permitting of infrastructure development projects and in conserving our Nation's valuable natural and cultural resources." The USGS Organic Act authorizes resource assessments to estimate the in-place potential capacity of energy, mineral, hydrologic, and biologic resources (20 Stat. 394; 43 U.S.C. 31) and later amendments. These two statements form the basis for the development of the Net Resources Assessment (NetRA) framework. NetRA is a policy-relevant, interdisciplinary approach to assessing natural resources availability in examining the regional-scale interrelationships between energy or mineral extraction and impact on ecosystem services. The systems dynamics approach (SD) emphasizes the interdependence of natural resource development and its effect on collocated ecosystem services over space and time. The example of the NetRA that will be presented focuses on tradeoffs associated with land management decisions in the West. The Piceance Basin, CO example that will be discussed involves development of a continuous gas deposit and its impact on Mule Deer and water quality. The SD is the hub for generating a range of simulated landscape outcomes. The probabilistic model provides an economic indicator as to the expected net societal benefit of economic development and biophysical indicators for ecosystem services affected in the region. Both natural and economic indicators are associated with each outcome via a tradeoff analysis the can be used for risk analysis. The NetRA also retains map attributes for before and after map comparisons to specific alternatives for an existing baseline. The model has three stages: map-based scenario development with slider bars (choice variables), side-by-side extraction and ecosystem services sub-models, and integrated multiple resource trade-off outcomes.

Flexible server architecture for resource-optimal presentation of Internet multimedia streams to the client

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boenisch, Holger; Froitzheim, Konrad

1999-12-01

The transfer of live media streams such as video and audio over the Internet is subject to several problems, static and dynamic by nature. Important quality of service (QoS) parameters do not only differ between various receivers depending on their network access, service provider, and nationality, the QoS is also variable in time. Moreover the installed receiver base is heterogeneous with respect to operating system, browser or client software, and browser version. We present a new concept for serving live media streams. It is not longer based on the current one-size-fits all paradigm, where the server offers just one stream. Our compresslet system takes the opposite approach: it builds media streams `to order' and `just in time'. Every client subscribing to a media stream uses a servlet loaded into the media server to generate a tailored data stream for his resources and constraints. The server is designed such that commonly used components for media streams are computed once. The compresslets use these prefabricated components, code additional data if necessary, and construct the data stream based on the dynamic available QoS and other client constraints. A client-specific encoding leads to resource- optimal presentation that is especially useful for the presentation of complex multimedia documents on a variety of output devices.

State of the States 2009: Renewable Energy Development and the Role of Policy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Doris, E.; McLaren, J.; Healey, V.

2009-10-01

As U.S. states increasingly focus on developing renewable energy resources, there is a need to track the progress of development, as well as the policies and support mechanisms being implemented to encourage this development. Beyond tracking, the evaluation of policy measures is necessary to determine their effectiveness, guide future efforts, and efficiently allocate resources. This report addresses each of these needs. It provides a detailed picture of the status of renewable energy development in each of the U.S. states using a variety of metrics and discusses the policies being used to encourage this development. The report then explores the contextmore » in which renewable energy development occurs by discussing the factors that can affect the uptake of power generation technologies. The analysis offers suggestions on how policies can be used to address these variables, which leads to tailored policy support that considers the specific circumstances within each state. The analysis presents results of several quantitative evaluation methods that have been designed to explore the link between policy implementation and actual development. Finally, the report discusses contextual factors, aside from policy, that affect renewable energy development. The report concludes with a summary of the main points from each chapter, discussion of next steps, and a list of resources.« less

Research resource: Tissue-specific transcriptomics and cistromics of nuclear receptor signaling: a web research resource.

PubMed

Ochsner, Scott A; Watkins, Christopher M; LaGrone, Benjamin S; Steffen, David L; McKenna, Neil J

2010-10-01

Nuclear receptors (NRs) are ligand-regulated transcription factors that recruit coregulators and other transcription factors to gene promoters to effect regulation of tissue-specific transcriptomes. The prodigious rate at which the NR signaling field has generated high content gene expression and, more recently, genome-wide location analysis datasets has not been matched by a committed effort to archiving this information for routine access by bench and clinical scientists. As a first step towards this goal, we searched the MEDLINE database for studies, which referenced either expression microarray and/or genome-wide location analysis datasets in which a NR or NR ligand was an experimental variable. A total of 1122 studies encompassing 325 unique organs, tissues, primary cells, and cell lines, 35 NRs, and 91 NR ligands were retrieved and annotated. The data were incorporated into a new section of the Nuclear Receptor Signaling Atlas Molecule Pages, Transcriptomics and Cistromics, for which we designed an intuitive, freely accessible user interface to browse the studies. Each study links to an abstract, the MEDLINE record, and, where available, Gene Expression Omnibus and ArrayExpress records. The resource will be updated on a regular basis to provide a current and comprehensive entrez into the sum of transcriptomic and cistromic research in this field.

Estimating Renewable Energy Economic Potential in the United States. Methodology and Initial Results

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brown, Austin; Beiter, Philipp; Heimiller, Donna

This report describes a geospatial analysis method to estimate the economic potential of several renewable resources available for electricity generation in the United States. Economic potential, one measure of renewable generation potential, may be defined in several ways. For example, one definition might be expected revenues (based on local market prices) minus generation costs, considered over the expected lifetime of the generation asset. Another definition might be generation costs relative to a benchmark (e.g., a natural gas combined cycle plant) using assumptions of fuel prices, capital cost, and plant efficiency. Economic potential in this report is defined as the subsetmore » of the available resource technical potential where the cost required to generate the electricity (which determines the minimum revenue requirements for development of the resource) is below the revenue available in terms of displaced energy and displaced capacity. The assessment is conducted at a high geospatial resolution (more than 150,000 technology-specific sites in the continental United States) to capture the significant variation in local resource, costs, and revenue potential. This metric can be a useful screening factor for understanding the economic viability of renewable generation technologies at a specific location. In contrast to many common estimates of renewable energy potential, economic potential does not consider market dynamics, customer demand, or most policy drivers that may incent renewable energy generation.« less

Community change in the variable resource habitat of the abyssal northeast Pacific.

PubMed

Ruhl, Henry A

2008-04-01

Research capable of differentiating resource-related community-level change from random ecological drift in natural systems has been limited. Evidence for nonrandom, resource-driven change is presented here for an epibenthic megafauna community in the abyssal northeast Pacific Ocean from 1989 to 2004. The sinking particulate organic carbon food supply is linked not only to species-specific abundances, but also to species composition and equitability. Shifts in rank abundance distributions (RADs) and evenness, from more to less equitable, correlated to increased food supply during La Niña phases of the El Niño Southern Oscillation. The results suggest that each taxon exhibited a differential response to a sufficiently low dimension resource, which led to changes in community composition and equitability. Thus the shifts were not likely due to random ecological drift. Although the community can undergo population-level variations of one or more orders of magnitude, and the shape of the RADs was variable, the organization retained a significant consistency, providing evidence of limits for such changes. The growing evidence for limited resource-driven changes in RADs and evenness further emphasizes the potential importance of temporally variable disequilibria in understanding why communities have certain basic attributes.

Declarative Business Process Modelling and the Generation of ERP Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schultz-Møller, Nicholas Poul; Hølmer, Christian; Hansen, Michael R.

We present an approach to the construction of Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) Systems, which is based on the Resources, Events and Agents (REA) ontology. This framework deals with processes involving exchange and flow of resources in a declarative, graphically-based manner describing what the major entities are rather than how they engage in computations. We show how to develop a domain-specific language on the basis of REA, and a tool which automatically can generate running web-applications. A main contribution is a proof-of-concept showing that business-domain experts can generate their own applications without worrying about implementation details.

[Do regional and generational differences in attitudes toward "Luck Resource Belief" exist?].

PubMed

Murakami, Koshi

2016-04-01

This article examines whether belief in superstitions and folklore differs by age and degree of modernization specifically. This study investigated regional and generational differences in attitudes toward "Luck Resource Belief," a notion regarding luck. The 500 Japanese participants in our sample were stratified by place of residence, age, and income. The results reflected gender differences, but not regional or generational differences with regard to the "Luck Resource Belief" scale scores. Based on these results, the hypothesis that the mass media plays a major role in the dissemination of information about superstitions and folklore is discussed in this context.

Secure Continuous Variable Teleportation and Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen Steering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Qiongyi; Rosales-Zárate, Laura; Adesso, Gerardo; Reid, Margaret D.

2015-10-01

We investigate the resources needed for secure teleportation of coherent states. We extend continuous variable teleportation to include quantum teleamplification protocols that allow nonunity classical gains and a preamplification or postattenuation of the coherent state. We show that, for arbitrary Gaussian protocols and a significant class of Gaussian resources, two-way steering is required to achieve a teleportation fidelity beyond the no-cloning threshold. This provides an operational connection between Gaussian steerability and secure teleportation. We present practical recipes suggesting that heralded noiseless preamplification may enable high-fidelity heralded teleportation, using minimally entangled yet steerable resources.

Self-care resources and activity as predictors of quality of life in persons after myocardial infarction.

PubMed

Baas, Linda S

2004-01-01

An ex post facto correlational study was conducted to examine predictors of quality of life in persons 3 to 6 months after a myocardial infarction. Self-care resources, self-care knowledge (needs), activity level, and selected demographic variables were examined as predictor variables. A convenience sample of 86 subjects with a mean age of 61 years, was recruited for participation in this study. The study that explained 35% of the variance in quality of life included self-care resources available, activity level, and self-care needs. Modeling and Role Modeling Paradigm provided a useful explanation of how self-care resources and self-care knowledge can be applied to persons recovering from myocardial infarction.

The impact of short-term stochastic variability in solar irradiance on optimal microgrid design

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schittekatte, Tim; Stadler, Michael; Cardoso, Gonçalo

2016-07-01

This paper proposes a new methodology to capture the impact of fast moving clouds on utility power demand charges observed in microgrids with photovoltaic (PV) arrays, generators, and electrochemical energy storage. It consists of a statistical approach to introduce sub-hourly events in the hourly economic accounting process. The methodology is implemented in the Distributed Energy Resources Customer Adoption Model (DER-CAM), a state of the art mixed integer linear model used to optimally size DER in decentralized energy systems. Results suggest that previous iterations of DER-CAM could undersize battery capacities. The improved model depicts more accurately the economic value of PVmore » as well as the synergistic benefits of pairing PV with storage.« less

Stability analysis of offshore wind farm and marine current farm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shawon, Mohammad Hasanuzzaman

Renewable energy has been playing an important role to meet power demand and 'Green Energy' market is getting bigger platform all over the world in the last few years. Due to massive increase in the prices of fossil fuels along with global warming issues, energy harvesting from renewable energy sources has received considerable interest, nowadays, where extensive researches are going on to ensure optimum use of renewable sources. In order to meet the increasing demand of electricity and power, integration of renewable energy is getting highest priorities around the world. Wind is one of the most top growing renewable energy resources and wind power market penetration is expected to reach 3.35 percent by 2013 from its present market of about 240 GW. A wind energy system is the most environmental friendly, cost effective and safe among all renewable energy resources available. Another promising form of renewable energy is ocean energy which covers 70 % of the earth. Ocean energy can be tapped from waves, tides and thermal elements. Offshore Wind farm (OWF) has already become very popular for large scale wind power integration with the onshore grid. Recently, marine current farm (MCF) is also showing good potential to become mainstream energy sources and already successfully commissioned in United Kingdom. However, squirrel cage induction generator (SCIG) has the stability problem similar to synchronous generator especially during fault location to restore the electromagnetic torque. Series dynamic braking resistor (SDBR) has been known as a useful mean to stabilize fixed speed wind generator system. On the other hand, doubly fed induction generator (DFIG) has the capability of coupling the control of active and reactive power and to provide necessary reactive power demand during grid fault conditions. Series dynamic braking resistor (SDBR) can also be employed with DFIG to limit the rotor over current. An integration of wind and tidal energy represents a new-trend for large electric energy production using offshore wind generators and marine current generators, respectively. Thus DFIG based offshore wind farm can be an economic solution to stabilize squirrel cage induction generator based marine current farm without installing any addition FACTS devices. This thesis first focuses on the stabilization of fixed speed IG based marine current farm using SDBR. Also stabilization of DFIG based variable speed wind farm utilizing SDBR is studied in this work. Finally a co-operative control strategy is proposed where DFIG is controlled in such a way that it can even provide necessary reactive power demand of induction generator, so that additional cost of FACTS devices can be avoided. In that way, the DFIGs of the offshore wind farm (OWF) will actively compensate the reactive power demand of adjacent IGs of the marine current farm (MCF) during grid fault. Detailed modeling and control scheme for the proposed system are demonstrated considering some realistic scenarios. The power system small signal stability analysis is also carried out by eigenvalue analysis for marine current generator topology, wind turbine generator topology and integrated topology. The relation between the modes and state variables are discussed in light of modal and sensitivity analyses. The results of theoretical analyses are verified by MATLAB/SIMULINK and laboratory standard power system simulator PSCAD/EMTDC.

Renewable Electricity Futures Study. Volume 2: Renewable Electricity Generation and Storage Technologies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Augustine, C.; Bain, R.; Chapman, J.

2012-06-01

The Renewable Electricity Futures (RE Futures) Study investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. The analysis focused on the sufficiency of the geographically diverse U.S. renewable resources to meet electricity demand over future decades, the hourly operational characteristics of the U.S. grid with high levels of variable wind and solar generation, and the potential implications of deploying high levels of renewables in the future. RE Futures focused on technical aspects of high penetration of renewable electricity; it did not focus on how to achieve such a futuremore » through policy or other measures. Given the inherent uncertainties involved with analyzing alternative long-term energy futures as well as the multiple pathways that might be taken to achieve higher levels of renewable electricity supply, RE Futures explored a range of scenarios to investigate and compare the impacts of renewable electricity penetration levels (30%-90%), future technology performance improvements, potential constraints to renewable electricity development, and future electricity demand growth assumptions. RE Futures was led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).« less

Demonstration of Active Power Controls by Utility-Scale PV Power Plant in an Island Grid: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gevorgian, Vahan; O'Neill, Barbara

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), AES, and the Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority conducted a demonstration project on a utility-scale photovoltaic (PV) plant to test the viability of providing important ancillary services from this facility. As solar generation increases globally, there is a need for innovation and increased operational flexibility. A typical PV power plant consists of multiple power electronic inverters and can contribute to grid stability and reliability through sophisticated 'grid-friendly' controls. In this way, it may mitigate the impact of its variability on the grid and contribute to important system requirements more like traditional generators. In 2015,more » testing was completed on a 20-MW AES plant in Puerto Rico, and a large amount of test data was produced and analyzed that demonstrates the ability of PV power plants to provide various types of new grid-friendly controls. This data showed how active power controls can leverage PV's value from being simply an intermittent energy resource to providing additional ancillary services for an isolated island grid. Specifically, the tests conducted included PV plant participation in automatic generation control, provision of droop response, and fast frequency response.« less

Successful selection of rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) on their ability to grow with a diet completely devoid of fishmeal and fish oil, and correlated changes in nutritional traits.

PubMed

Callet, Thérèse; Médale, Françoise; Larroquet, Laurence; Surget, Anne; Aguirre, Pierre; Kerneis, Thierry; Labbé, Laurent; Quillet, Edwige; Geurden, Inge; Skiba-Cassy, Sandrine; Dupont-Nivet, Mathilde

2017-01-01

In the context of limited marine resources, the exponential growth of aquaculture requires the substitution of fish oil and fishmeal, the traditional components of fish feeds by terrestrial plant ingredients. High levels of such substitution are known to negatively impact fish performance such as growth and survival in rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) as in other salmonids. In this respect, genetic selection is a key enabler for improving those performances and hence for the further sustainable development of aquaculture. We selected a rainbow trout line over three generations for its ability to survive and grow on a 100% plant-based diet devoid of both fish oil and fishmeal (V diet) from the very first meal. In the present study, we compared the control line and the selected line after 3 generations of selection, both fed either the V diet or a marine resources-based diet (M diet). The objective of the study was to assess the efficiency of selection and the consequences on various correlated nutritional traits: feed intake, feed efficiency, digestibility, composition of whole fish, nutrient retention and fatty acid (FA) profile. We demonstrated that the genetic variability present in our rainbow trout population can be selected to improve survival and growth. The major result of the study is that after only three generations of selection, selected fish fed the V diet grew at the same rate as the control line fed the M diet, whilst the relative reduction of body weight was 36.8% before the selection. This enhanced performance on the V diet seems to be mostly linked to a higher feed intake for the selected fish.

Successful selection of rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) on their ability to grow with a diet completely devoid of fishmeal and fish oil, and correlated changes in nutritional traits

PubMed Central

Médale, Françoise; Larroquet, Laurence; Surget, Anne; Aguirre, Pierre; Kerneis, Thierry; Labbé, Laurent; Quillet, Edwige; Geurden, Inge; Skiba-Cassy, Sandrine; Dupont-Nivet, Mathilde

2017-01-01

In the context of limited marine resources, the exponential growth of aquaculture requires the substitution of fish oil and fishmeal, the traditional components of fish feeds by terrestrial plant ingredients. High levels of such substitution are known to negatively impact fish performance such as growth and survival in rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) as in other salmonids. In this respect, genetic selection is a key enabler for improving those performances and hence for the further sustainable development of aquaculture. We selected a rainbow trout line over three generations for its ability to survive and grow on a 100% plant-based diet devoid of both fish oil and fishmeal (V diet) from the very first meal. In the present study, we compared the control line and the selected line after 3 generations of selection, both fed either the V diet or a marine resources-based diet (M diet). The objective of the study was to assess the efficiency of selection and the consequences on various correlated nutritional traits: feed intake, feed efficiency, digestibility, composition of whole fish, nutrient retention and fatty acid (FA) profile. We demonstrated that the genetic variability present in our rainbow trout population can be selected to improve survival and growth. The major result of the study is that after only three generations of selection, selected fish fed the V diet grew at the same rate as the control line fed the M diet, whilst the relative reduction of body weight was 36.8% before the selection. This enhanced performance on the V diet seems to be mostly linked to a higher feed intake for the selected fish. PMID:29059226

Bayesian approaches for Integrated Water Resources Management. A Mediterranean case study.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gulliver, Zacarías; Herrero, Javier; José Polo, María

2013-04-01

This study presents the first steps of a short-term/mid-term analysis of the water resources in the Guadalfeo Basin, Spain. Within the basin the recent construction of the Rules dam has required the development of specific management tools and structures for this water system. The climate variability and the high water demand requirements for agriculture irrigation and tourism in this region may cause different controversies in the water management planning process. During the first stages of the study a rigorous analysis of the Water Framework Directive results was done in order to implement the legal requirements and the solutions for the gaps identified by the water authorities. In addition, the stakeholders and water experts identified the variables and geophysical processes for our specific water system case. These particularities need to be taken into account and are required to be reflected in the final computational tool. For decision making process purposes in a mid-term scale, a bayesian network has been used to quantify uncertainty which also provides a structure representation of probabilities, actions-decisions and utilities. On one hand by applying these techniques it is possible the inclusion of decision rules generating influence diagrams that provides clear and coherent semantics for the value of making an observation. On the other hand the utility nodes encode the stakeholders preferences which are measured on a numerical scale, choosing the action that maximizes the expected utility [MEU]. Also this graphical model allows us to identify gaps and project corrective measures, for example, formulating associated scenarios with different event hypotheses. In this sense conditional probability distributions of the seasonal water demand and waste water has been obtained between the established intervals. This fact will give to the regional water managers useful information for future decision making process. The final display is very visual and allows the user to understand quickly the model and the causal relationships between the existing nodes and variables. The input data were collected from the local monitoring networks and the unmonitored data has been generated with a physically based spatially distributed hydrological model WiMMed, which is validated and calibrated. For short-term purposes, pattern analysis has been applied for the management of extreme events scenarios, techniques as Bayesian Neural Networks (BNN) or Gaussian Processes (GP) giving accuracy on the predictions.

Evaluating climate change impacts on streamflow variability based on a multisite multivariate GCM downscaling method in the Jing River of China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhi; Jin, Jiming

2017-11-01

Projected hydrological variability is important for future resource and hazard management of water supplies because changes in hydrological variability can cause more disasters than changes in the mean state. However, climate change scenarios downscaled from Earth System Models (ESMs) at single sites cannot meet the requirements of distributed hydrologic models for simulating hydrological variability. This study developed multisite multivariate climate change scenarios via three steps: (i) spatial downscaling of ESMs using a transfer function method, (ii) temporal downscaling of ESMs using a single-site weather generator, and (iii) reconstruction of spatiotemporal correlations using a distribution-free shuffle procedure. Multisite precipitation and temperature change scenarios for 2011-2040 were generated from five ESMs under four representative concentration pathways to project changes in streamflow variability using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for the Jing River, China. The correlation reconstruction method performed realistically for intersite and intervariable correlation reproduction and hydrological modeling. The SWAT model was found to be well calibrated with monthly streamflow with a model efficiency coefficient of 0.78. It was projected that the annual mean precipitation would not change, while the mean maximum and minimum temperatures would increase significantly by 1.6 ± 0.3 and 1.3 ± 0.2 °C; the variance ratios of 2011-2040 to 1961-2005 were 1.15 ± 0.13 for precipitation, 1.15 ± 0.14 for mean maximum temperature, and 1.04 ± 0.10 for mean minimum temperature. A warmer climate was predicted for the flood season, while the dry season was projected to become wetter and warmer; the findings indicated that the intra-annual and interannual variations in the future climate would be greater than in the current climate. The total annual streamflow was found to change insignificantly but its variance ratios of 2011-2040 to 1961-2005 increased by 1.25 ± 0.55. Streamflow variability was predicted to become greater over most months on the seasonal scale because of the increased monthly maximum streamflow and decreased monthly minimum streamflow. The increase in streamflow variability was attributed mainly to larger positive contributions from increased precipitation variances rather than negative contributions from increased mean temperatures.

Runoff and recharge processes under a strong semi-arid climatic gradient

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ries, F.; Lange, J.; Sauter, M.; Schmidt, S.

2012-04-01

Hydrological processes in semi-arid environments are highly dynamic. In the eastern slopes of the West Bank these dynamics are even intensified due to the predominant karst morphology, the strong climatic gradient (150-700 mm mean annual precipitation) and the small-scale variability of land use, topography and soil cover. The region is characterized by a scarcity in water resources and a high population growth. Therefore detailed information about the temporal and spatial distribution, amount and variability of available water resources is required. Providing this information by the use of hydrological models is challenging, because available data are extremely limited. From 2007 on, the research area of Wadi Auja, northeast of Jerusalem, has been instrumented with a dense monitoring network. Rainfall distribution and climatic parameters as well as the hydrological reaction of the system along the strong semi-arid climatic gradient are measured on the plot (soil moisture), hillslope (runoff generation) and catchment scale (spring discharge, groundwater level, flood runoff). First data from soil moisture plots situated along the climatic gradient are presented. They allow insights into physical properties of the soil layer and its impact on runoff and recharge processes under different climatic conditions. From continuous soil moisture profiles, soil water balances are calculated for singe events and entire seasons. These data will be used to parameterize the distributed hydrological model TRAIN-ZIN, which has been successfully applied in several studies in the Jordan River Basin.

Can APEX Represent In-Field Spatial Variability and Simulate Its Effects On Crop Yields?

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Precision agriculture, from variable rate nitrogen application to precision irrigation, promises improved management of resources by considering the spatial variability of topography and soil properties. Hydrologic models need to simulate the effects of this variability if they are to inform about t...

Equivalence between entanglement and the optimal fidelity of continuous variable teleportation.

PubMed

Adesso, Gerardo; Illuminati, Fabrizio

2005-10-07

We devise the optimal form of Gaussian resource states enabling continuous-variable teleportation with maximal fidelity. We show that a nonclassical optimal fidelity of N-user teleportation networks is necessary and sufficient for N-party entangled Gaussian resources, yielding an estimator of multipartite entanglement. The entanglement of teleportation is equivalent to the entanglement of formation in a two-user protocol, and to the localizable entanglement in a multiuser one. Finally, we show that the continuous-variable tangle, quantifying entanglement sharing in three-mode Gaussian states, is defined operationally in terms of the optimal fidelity of a tripartite teleportation network.

Generating High Resolution Climate Scenarios Through Regional Climate Modelling Over Southern Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ndhlovu, G. Z.; Woyessa, Y. E.; Vijayaraghavan, S.

2017-12-01

limate change has impacted the global environment and the Continent of Africa, especially Southern Africa, regarded as one of the most vulnerable regions in Africa, has not been spared from these impacts. Global Climate Models (GCMs) with coarse horizontal resolutions of 150-300 km do not provide sufficient details at the local basin scale due to mismatch between the size of river basins and the grid cell of the GCM. This makes it difficult to apply the outputs of GCMs directly to impact studies such as hydrological modelling. This necessitates the use of regional climate modelling at high resolutions that provide detailed information at regional and local scales to study both climate change and its impacts. To this end, an experiment was set up and conducted with PRECIS, a regional climate model, to generate climate scenarios at a high resolution of 25km for the local region in Zambezi River basin of Southern Africa. The major input data used included lateral and surface boundary conditions based on the GCMs. The data is processed, analysed and compared with CORDEX climate change project data generated for Africa. This paper, highlights the major differences of the climate scenarios generated by PRECIS Model and CORDEX Project for Africa and further gives recommendations for further research on generation of climate scenarios. The climatic variables such as precipitation and temperatures have been analysed for flood and droughts in the region. The paper also describes the setting up and running of an experiment using a high-resolution PRECIS model. In addition, a description has been made in running the model and generating the output variables on a sub basin scale. Regional climate modelling which provides information on climate change impact may lead to enhanced understanding of adaptive water resources management. Understanding the regional climate modelling results on sub basin scale is the first step in analysing complex hydrological processes and a basis for designing of adaptation and mitigation strategies in the region. Key words: Climate change, regional climate modelling, hydrological processes, extremes, scenarios [1] Corresponding author: Email:gndhlovu@cut.ac.za Tel:+27 (0) 51 507 3072

The Social Cognition of Social Foraging: Partner Selection by Underlying Valuation

PubMed Central

DELTON, ANDREW W.; ROBERTSON, THERESA E.

2012-01-01

Humans and other animals have a variety of psychological abilities tailored to the demands of asocial foraging, that is, foraging without coordination or competition with other conspecifics. Human foraging, however, also includes a unique element, the creation of resource pooling systems. In this type of social foraging, individuals contribute when they have excess resources and receive provisioning when in need. Is this behavior produced by the same psychology as asocial foraging? If so, foraging partners should be judged by the same criteria used to judge asocial patches of resources: the net energetic benefits they provide. The logic of resource pooling speaks against this. Maintaining such a system requires the ability to judge others not on their short-term returns, but on the psychological variables that guide their behavior over the long-term. We test this idea in a series of five studies using an implicit measure of categorization. Results showed that (1) others are judged by the costs they incur (a variable not relevant to asocial foraging) whereas (2) others are not judged by the benefits they provide when benefits provided are unrevealing of underlying psychological variables (despite this variable being relevant to asocial foraging). These results are suggestive of a complex psychology designed for both social and asocial foraging. PMID:23162372