Multiple stressors, nonlinear effects and the implications of climate change impacts on marine coastal ecosystems.

PubMed

Hewitt, Judi E; Ellis, Joanne I; Thrush, Simon F

2016-08-01

Global climate change will undoubtedly be a pressure on coastal marine ecosystems, affecting not only species distributions and physiology but also ecosystem functioning. In the coastal zone, the environmental variables that may drive ecological responses to climate change include temperature, wave energy, upwelling events and freshwater inputs, and all act and interact at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. To date, we have a poor understanding of how climate-related environmental changes may affect coastal marine ecosystems or which environmental variables are likely to produce priority effects. Here we use time series data (17 years) of coastal benthic macrofauna to investigate responses to a range of climate-influenced variables including sea-surface temperature, southern oscillation indices (SOI, Z4), wind-wave exposure, freshwater inputs and rainfall. We investigate responses from the abundances of individual species to abundances of functional traits and test whether species that are near the edge of their tolerance to another stressor (in this case sedimentation) may exhibit stronger responses. The responses we observed were all nonlinear and some exhibited thresholds. While temperature was most frequently an important predictor, wave exposure and ENSO-related variables were also frequently important and most ecological variables responded to interactions between environmental variables. There were also indications that species sensitive to another stressor responded more strongly to weaker climate-related environmental change at the stressed site than the unstressed site. The observed interactions between climate variables, effects on key species or functional traits, and synergistic effects of additional anthropogenic stressors have important implications for understanding and predicting the ecological consequences of climate change to coastal ecosystems. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Plant Trait Variation along an Altitudinal Gradient in Mediterranean High Mountain Grasslands: Controlling the Species Turnover Effect

PubMed Central

Pescador, David S.; de Bello, Francesco; Valladares, Fernando; Escudero, Adrián

2015-01-01

Assessing changes in plant functional traits along gradients is useful for understanding the assembly of communities and their response to global and local environmental drivers. However, these changes may reflect the effects of species composition (i.e. composition turnover), species abundance (i.e. species interaction), and intra-specific trait variability (i.e. species plasticity). In order to determine the relevance of the latter, trait variation can be assessed under minimal effects of composition turnover. Nine sampling sites were established along an altitudinal gradient in a Mediterranean high mountain grassland community with low composition turnover (Madrid, Spain; 1940 m–2419 m). Nine functional traits were also measured for ten individuals of around ten plant species at each site, for a total of eleven species across all sites. The relative importance of different sources of variability (within/between site and intra-/inter-specific functional diversity) and trait variation at species and community level along the considered gradients were explored. We found a weak individual species response to altitude and other environmental variables although in some cases, individuals were smaller and leaves were thicker at higher elevations. This lack of species response was most likely due to greater within- than between-site species variation. At the community level, inter-specific functional diversity was generally greater than the intra-specific component except for traits linked to leaf element content (leaf carbon content, leaf nitrogen content, δ13C and δ15N). Inter-specific functional diversity decreased with lower altitude for four leaf traits (specific leaf area, leaf dry matter content, δ13C and δ15N), suggesting trait convergence between species at lower elevations, where water shortage may have a stronger environmental filtering effect than colder temperatures at higher altitudes. Our results suggest that, within a vegetation type encompassing various environmental gradients, both, changes in species abundance and intra-specific trait variability adjust for the community functional response to environmental changes. PMID:25774532

Plant trait variation along an altitudinal gradient in mediterranean high mountain grasslands: controlling the species turnover effect.

PubMed

Pescador, David S; de Bello, Francesco; Valladares, Fernando; Escudero, Adrián

2015-01-01

Assessing changes in plant functional traits along gradients is useful for understanding the assembly of communities and their response to global and local environmental drivers. However, these changes may reflect the effects of species composition (i.e. composition turnover), species abundance (i.e. species interaction), and intra-specific trait variability (i.e. species plasticity). In order to determine the relevance of the latter, trait variation can be assessed under minimal effects of composition turnover. Nine sampling sites were established along an altitudinal gradient in a Mediterranean high mountain grassland community with low composition turnover (Madrid, Spain; 1940 m-2419 m). Nine functional traits were also measured for ten individuals of around ten plant species at each site, for a total of eleven species across all sites. The relative importance of different sources of variability (within/between site and intra-/inter-specific functional diversity) and trait variation at species and community level along the considered gradients were explored. We found a weak individual species response to altitude and other environmental variables although in some cases, individuals were smaller and leaves were thicker at higher elevations. This lack of species response was most likely due to greater within- than between-site species variation. At the community level, inter-specific functional diversity was generally greater than the intra-specific component except for traits linked to leaf element content (leaf carbon content, leaf nitrogen content, δ13C and δ15N). Inter-specific functional diversity decreased with lower altitude for four leaf traits (specific leaf area, leaf dry matter content, δ13C and δ15N), suggesting trait convergence between species at lower elevations, where water shortage may have a stronger environmental filtering effect than colder temperatures at higher altitudes. Our results suggest that, within a vegetation type encompassing various environmental gradients, both, changes in species abundance and intra-specific trait variability adjust for the community functional response to environmental changes.

Responses of woody species to spatial and temporal ground water changes in coastal sand dune systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Máguas, C.; Rascher, K. G.; Martins-Loução, A.; Carvalho, P.; Pinho, P.; Ramos, M.; Correia, O.; Werner, C.

2011-12-01

In spite of the relative importance of groundwater in costal dune systems, studies concerning the responses of vegetation to ground water (GW) availability variations, particularly in Mediterranean regions, are scarce. Thus, the main purpose of this study is to compare the responses of co-occurring species possessing different functional traits, to changes in GW levels (i.e. the lowering of GW levels) in a sand dune ecosystem. For that, five sites were established within a 1 km2 area in a meso-mediterranean sand dune ecosystem dominated by a Pinus pinaster forest. Due to natural topographic variability and anthropogenic GW exploitation, substantial variability in depth to GW between sites was found. Under these conditions it was possible to identify the degree of usage and dependence on GW of different plant species (two deep-rooted trees, a drought adapted shrub, a phreatophyte and a non-native woody invader) and how GW dependence varied seasonally and between the heterogeneous sites. Results indicated that the plant species had differential responses to changes in GW depth according to specific functional traits (i.e. rooting depth, leaf morphology, and water use strategy). Species comparison revealed that variability in pre-dawn water potential (Ψpre) and bulk leaf δ13C was related to site differences in GW use in the deep-rooted (Pinus pinaster, Myrica faya) and phreatophyte (Salix repens) species. However, such variation was more evident during spring than during summer drought. The exotic invader, Acacia longifolia, which does not possess a very deep root system, presented the largest seasonal variability in Ψpre and bulk leaf δ13C. In contrast, the response of Corema album, an endemic understory drought-adapted shrub, seemed to be independent of water availability across seasons and sites. Thus, the susceptibility to lowering of GW due to anthropogenic exploitation, in plant species from sand dunes, is variable, being particularly relevant for deep rooted species and phreatophytes, which seem to depend heavily on access to GW.

Spatial Variability in Biodegradation Rates as Evidenced by Methane Production from an Aquifer

PubMed Central

Adrian, Neal R.; Robinson, Joseph A.; Suflita, Joseph M.

1994-01-01

Accurate predictions of carbon and energy cycling rates in the environment depend on sampling frequencies and on the spatial variability associated with biological activities. We examined the variability associated with anaerobic biodegradation rates at two sites in an alluvial sand aquifer polluted by municipal landfill leachate. In situ rates of methane production were measured for almost a year, using anaerobic wells installed at two sites. Methane production ranged from 0 to 560 μmol · m-2 · day-1 at one site (A), while a range of 0 to 120,000 μmol · m-2 · day-1 was measured at site B. The mean and standard deviations associated with methane production at site A were 17 and 57 μmol · m-2 · day-1, respectively. The comparable summary statistics for site B were 2,000 and 9,900 μmol · m-2 · day-1. The coefficients of variation at sites A and B were 340 and 490%, respectively. Despite these differences, the two sites had similar seasonal trends, with the maximal rate of methane production occurring in summer. However, the relative variability associated with the seasonal rates changed very little. Our results suggest that (i) two spatially distinct sites exist in the aquifer, (ii) methanogenesis is a highly variable process, (iii) the coefficient of variation varied little with the rate of methane production, and (iv) in situ anaerobic biodegradation rates are lognormally distributed. PMID:16349410

Association between climate variability and malaria epidemics in the East African highlands.

PubMed

Zhou, Guofa; Minakawa, Noboru; Githeko, Andrew K; Yan, Guiyun

2004-02-24

The causes of the recent reemergence of Plasmodium falciparum epidemic malaria in the East African highlands are controversial. Regional climate changes have been invoked as a major factor; however, assessing the impact of climate in malaria resurgence is difficult due to high spatial and temporal climate variability and the lack of long-term data series on malaria cases from different sites. Climate variability, defined as short-term fluctuations around the mean climate state, may be epidemiologically more relevant than mean temperature change, but its effects on malaria epidemics have not been rigorously examined. Here we used nonlinear mixed-regression model to investigate the association between autoregression (number of malaria outpatients during the previous time period), seasonality and climate variability, and the number of monthly malaria outpatients of the past 10-20 years in seven highland sites in East Africa. The model explained 65-81% of the variance in the number of monthly malaria outpatients. Nonlinear and synergistic effects of temperature and rainfall on the number of malaria outpatients were found in all seven sites. The net variance in the number of monthly malaria outpatients caused by autoregression and seasonality varied among sites and ranged from 18 to 63% (mean=38.6%), whereas 12-63% (mean=36.1%) of variance is attributed to climate variability. Our results suggest that there was a high spatial variation in the sensitivity of malaria outpatient number to climate fluctuations in the highlands, and that climate variability played an important role in initiating malaria epidemics in the East African highlands.

The Future of Wind Energy in California: Future Projections in Variable-Resolution CESM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, M.; Ullrich, P. A.; Millstein, D.; Collier, C.

2017-12-01

This study focuses on the wind energy characterization and future projection at five primary wind turbine sites in California. Historical (1980-2000) and mid-century (2030-2050) simulations were produced using the Variable-Resolution Community Earth System Model (VR-CESM) to analyze the trends and variations in wind energy under climate change. Datasets from Det Norske Veritas Germanischer Llyod (DNV GL), MERRA-2, CFSR, NARR, as well as surface observational data were used for model validation and comparison. Significant seasonal wind speed changes under RCP8.5 were detected from several wind farm sites. Large-scale patterns were then investigated to analyze the synoptic-scale impact on localized wind change. The agglomerative clustering method was applied to analyze and group different wind patterns. The associated meteorological background of each cluster was investigated to analyze the drivers of different wind patterns. This study improves the characterization of uncertainty around the magnitude and variability in space and time of California's wind resources in the near future, and also enhances understanding of the physical mechanisms related to the trends in wind resource variability.

Long-Term Coarse Particulate Matter Exposure and Heart Rate Variability in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA)

PubMed Central

Adhikari, Richa; D’Souza, Jennifer; Solimon, Elsayed Z.; Burke, Gregory L.; Daviglus, Martha; Jacobs, David R.; Park, Sung Kyun; Sheppard, Lianne; Thorne, Peter S.; Kaufman, Joel D.; Larson, Timothy V.; Adar, Sara D.

2017-01-01

Background Reduced heart rate variability, a marker of impaired cardiac autonomic function, has been linked to short-term exposure to airborne particles. This research adds to the literature by examining associations with long-term exposures to coarse particles (PM10-2.5). Methods Using electrocardiogram recordings from 2,780 participants (45-84 years) from three Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis sites, we assessed the standard deviation of normal-to-normal intervals (SDNN) and root-mean square differences of successive normal-to-normal intervals (rMSSD) at a baseline (2000-2002) and follow-up (2010-2012) examination (mean visits/person=1.5). Annual average concentrations of PM10-2.5 mass, copper, zinc, phosphorus, silicon, and endotoxin were estimated using site-specific spatial prediction models. We assessed associations for baseline heart rate variability and rate of change in heart rate variability over time using multivariable mixed models adjusted for time, sociodemographic, lifestyle, health, and neighborhood confounders, including co-pollutants. Results In our primary models adjusted for demographic and lifestyle factors and site, PM10-2.5 mass was associated with 1.0% (95% CI: -4.1, 2.1%) lower SDNN levels per interquartile range of 2 μg/m3. Stronger associations, however, were observed prior to site adjustment and with increasing residential stablity. Similar patterns were found for rMSSD. We found little evidence for associations with other chemical species and with with the rate of change in heart rate variability, though endotoxin was associated with increasing heart rate variability over time. Conclusion We found only weak evidence that long-term PM10-2.5 exposures are associated with lowered heart rate variability. Stronger associations among residentially stable individuals suggest that confirmatory studies are needed. PMID:27035690

Multi-site precipitation downscaling using a stochastic weather generator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Jie; Chen, Hua; Guo, Shenglian

2018-03-01

Statistical downscaling is an efficient way to solve the spatiotemporal mismatch between climate model outputs and the data requirements of hydrological models. However, the most commonly-used downscaling method only produces climate change scenarios for a specific site or watershed average, which is unable to drive distributed hydrological models to study the spatial variability of climate change impacts. By coupling a single-site downscaling method and a multi-site weather generator, this study proposes a multi-site downscaling approach for hydrological climate change impact studies. Multi-site downscaling is done in two stages. The first stage involves spatially downscaling climate model-simulated monthly precipitation from grid scale to a specific site using a quantile mapping method, and the second stage involves the temporal disaggregating of monthly precipitation to daily values by adjusting the parameters of a multi-site weather generator. The inter-station correlation is specifically considered using a distribution-free approach along with an iterative algorithm. The performance of the downscaling approach is illustrated using a 10-station watershed as an example. The precipitation time series derived from the National Centers for Environment Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis dataset is used as the climate model simulation. The precipitation time series of each station is divided into 30 odd years for calibration and 29 even years for validation. Several metrics, including the frequencies of wet and dry spells and statistics of the daily, monthly and annual precipitation are used as criteria to evaluate the multi-site downscaling approach. The results show that the frequencies of wet and dry spells are well reproduced for all stations. In addition, the multi-site downscaling approach performs well with respect to reproducing precipitation statistics, especially at monthly and annual timescales. The remaining biases mainly result from the non-stationarity of NCEP precipitation. Overall, the proposed approach is efficient for generating multi-site climate change scenarios that can be used to investigate the spatial variability of climate change impacts on hydrology.

Relations of alpine plant communities across environmental gradients: Multilevel versus multiscale analyses

USGS Publications Warehouse

Malanson, George P.; Zimmerman, Dale L.; Kinney, Mitch; Fagre, Daniel B.

2017-01-01

Alpine plant communities vary, and their environmental covariates could influence their response to climate change. A single multilevel model of how alpine plant community composition is determined by hierarchical relations is compared to a separate examination of those relations at different scales. Nonmetric multidimensional scaling of species cover for plots in four regions across the Rocky Mountains created dependent variables. Climate variables are derived for the four regions from interpolated data. Plot environmental variables are measured directly and the presence of thirty-seven site characteristics is recorded and used to create additional independent variables. Multilevel and best subsets regressions are used to determine the strength of the hypothesized relations. The ordinations indicate structure in the assembly of plant communities. The multilevel analyses, although revealing significant relations, provide little explanation; of the site variables, those related to site microclimate are most important. In multiscale analyses (whole and separate regions), different variables are better explanations within the different regions. This result indicates weak environmental niche control of community composition. The weak relations of the structure in the patterns of species association to the environment indicates that either alpine vegetation represents a case of the neutral theory of biogeography being a valid explanation or that it represents disequilibrium conditions. The implications of neutral theory and disequilibrium explanations are similar: Response to climate change will be difficult to quantify above equilibrium background turnover.

Are hotspots always hotspots? The relationship between diversity, resource and ecosystem functions in the Arctic.

PubMed

Link, Heike; Piepenburg, Dieter; Archambault, Philippe

2013-01-01

The diversity-ecosystem function relationship is an important topic in ecology but has not received much attention in Arctic environments, and has rarely been tested for its stability in time. We studied the temporal variability of benthic ecosystem functioning at hotspots (sites with high benthic boundary fluxes) and coldspots (sites with lower fluxes) across two years in the Canadian Arctic. Benthic remineralisation function was measured as fluxes of oxygen, silicic acid, phosphate, nitrate and nitrite at the sediment-water interface. In addition we determined sediment pigment concentration and taxonomic and functional macrobenthic diversity. To separate temporal from spatial variability, we sampled the same nine sites from the Mackenzie Shelf to Baffin Bay during the same season (summer or fall) in 2008 and 2009. We observed that temporal variability of benthic remineralisation function at hotspots is higher than at coldspots and that taxonomic and functional macrobenthic diversity did not change significantly between years. Temporal variability of food availability (i.e., sediment surface pigment concentration) seemed higher at coldspot than at hotspot areas. Sediment chlorophyll a (Chl a) concentration, taxonomic richness, total abundance, water depth and abundance of the largest gallery-burrowing polychaete Lumbrineristetraura together explained 42% of the total variation in fluxes. Food supply proxies (i.e., sediment Chl a and depth) split hot- from coldspot stations and explained variation on the axis of temporal variability, and macrofaunal community parameters explained variation mostly along the axis separating eastern from western sites with hot- or coldspot regimes. We conclude that variability in benthic remineralisation function, food supply and diversity will react to climate change on different time scales, and that their interactive effects may hide the detection of progressive change, particularly at hotspots. Time-series of benthic functions and its related parameters should be conducted at both hot- and coldspots to produce reliable predictive models.

Impacts of maintenance dredged material disposal on macrobenthic structure and secondary productivity.

PubMed

Bolam, S G; Barry, J; Bolam, T; Mason, C; Rumney, H S; Thain, J E; Law, R J

2011-10-01

The results of a monitoring programme to assess the spatial impacts associated with ongoing dredged material disposal activity at a dispersive, coastal disposal site (southwest UK) are described. Benthic impacts were assessed using benthic community structure and secondary productivity estimates. Analyses of univariate indices (including secondary production) and multivariate community structure revealed differences between stations inside and those outside the disposal site were minimal. Generally, stations within and outside the disposal site were characterised by the same species. Regression models indicated that the variability in biological structure and secondary production was predominantly accounted for by natural variables (e.g., depth, sediment granulometry) with only a small amount of residual variability being due to contaminant variables. Thus, the elevated levels of certain contaminants in the vicinity of the disposal area were not sufficient to result in significant ecological or ecotoxicological changes. We ascribe such findings partly to the dispersive nature of the disposal site. Crown Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The value of using seasonality and meteorological variables to model intra-urban PM2.5 variation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olvera Alvarez, Hector A.; Myers, Orrin B.; Weigel, Margaret; Armijos, Rodrigo X.

2018-06-01

A yearlong air monitoring campaign was conducted to assess the impact of local temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed on the temporal and spatial variability of PM2.5 in El Paso, Texas. Monitoring was conducted at four sites purposely selected to capture the local traffic variability. Effects of meteorological events on seasonal PM2.5 variability were identified. For instance, in winter low-wind and low-temperature conditions were associated with high PM2.5 events that contributed to elevated seasonal PM2.5 levels. Similarly, in spring, high PM2.5 events were associated with high-wind and low-relative humidity conditions. Correlation coefficients between meteorological variables and PM2.5 fluctuated drastically across seasons. Specifically, it was observed that for most sites correlations between PM2.5 and meteorological variables either changed from positive to negative or dissolved depending on the season. Overall, the results suggest that mixed effects analysis with season and site as fixed factors and meteorological variables as covariates could increase the explanatory value of LUR models for PM2.5.

Recent growth of conifer species of western North America: Assessing spatial patterns of radial growth trends

USGS Publications Warehouse

McKenzie, D.; Hessl, Amy E.; Peterson, D.L.

2001-01-01

We explored spatial patterns of low-frequency variability in radial tree growth among western North American conifer species and identified predictors of the variability in these patterns. Using 185 sites from the International Tree-Ring Data Bank, each of which contained 10a??60 raw ring-width series, we rebuilt two chronologies for each site, using two conservative methods designed to retain any low-frequency variability associated with recent environmental change. We used factor analysis to identify regional low-frequency patterns in site chronologies and estimated the slope of the growth trend since 1850 at each site from a combination of linear regression and time-series techniques. This slope was the response variable in a regression-tree model to predict the effects of environmental gradients and species-level differences on growth trends. Growth patterns at 27 sites from the American Southwest were consistent with quasi-periodic patterns of drought. Either 12 or 32 of the 185 sites demonstrated patterns of increasing growth between 1850 and 1980 A.D., depending on the standardization technique used. Pronounced growth increases were associated with high-elevation sites (above 3000 m) and high-latitude sites in maritime climates. Future research focused on these high-elevation and high-latitude sites should address the precise mechanisms responsible for increased 20th century growth.

Variable Temperature Infrared Spectroscopy Investigations of Benzoic Acid Desorption from Sodium and Calcium Montmorillonite Clays.

PubMed

Nickels, Tara M; Ingram, Audrey L; Maraoulaite, Dalia K; White, Robert L

2015-12-01

Processes involved in thermal desorption of benzoic acid from sodium and calcium montmorillonite clays are investigated by using variable temperature diffuse reflection Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (DRIFTS). By monitoring the temperature dependence of infrared absorbance bands while heating samples, subtle changes in molecular vibrations are detected and employed to characterize specific benzoic acid adsorption sites. Abrupt changes in benzoic acid adsorption site properties occur for both clay samples at about 125 °C. Difference spectra absorbance band frequency variations indicate that adsorbed benzoic acid interacts with interlayer cations through water bridges and that these interactions can be disrupted by the presence of organic anions, in particular, benzoate.

Sensitivity of sea urchin fertilization to pH varies across a natural pH mosaic.

PubMed

Kapsenberg, Lydia; Okamoto, Daniel K; Dutton, Jessica M; Hofmann, Gretchen E

2017-03-01

In the coastal ocean, temporal fluctuations in pH vary dramatically across biogeographic ranges. How such spatial differences in pH variability regimes might shape ocean acidification resistance in marine species remains unknown. We assessed the pH sensitivity of the sea urchin Strongylocentrotus purpuratus in the context of ocean pH variability. Using unique male-female pairs, originating from three sites with similar mean pH but different variability and frequency of low pH (pH T  ≤ 7.8) exposures, fertilization was tested across a range of pH (pH T 7.61-8.03) and sperm concentrations. High fertilization success was maintained at low pH via a slight right shift in the fertilization function across sperm concentration. This pH effect differed by site. Urchins from the site with the narrowest pH variability regime exhibited the greatest pH sensitivity. At this site, mechanistic fertilization dynamics models support a decrease in sperm-egg interaction rate with decreasing pH. The site differences in pH sensitivity build upon recent evidence of local pH adaptation in S. purpuratus and highlight the need to incorporate environmental variability in the study of global change biology.

Climate and soil attributes determine plant species turnover in global drylands

PubMed Central

Maestre, Fernando T.; Gotelli, Nicholas J.; Quero, José L.; Delgado-Baquerizo, Manuel; Bowker, Matthew A.; Eldridge, David J.; Ochoa, Victoria; Gozalo, Beatriz; Valencia, Enrique; Berdugo, Miguel; Escolar, Cristina; García-Gómez, Miguel; Escudero, Adrián; Prina, Aníbal; Alfonso, Graciela; Arredondo, Tulio; Bran, Donaldo; Cabrera, Omar; Cea, Alex; Chaieb, Mohamed; Contreras, Jorge; Derak, Mchich; Espinosa, Carlos I.; Florentino, Adriana; Gaitán, Juan; Muro, Victoria García; Ghiloufi, Wahida; Gómez-González, Susana; Gutiérrez, Julio R.; Hernández, Rosa M.; Huber-Sannwald, Elisabeth; Jankju, Mohammad; Mau, Rebecca L.; Hughes, Frederic Mendes; Miriti, Maria; Monerris, Jorge; Muchane, Muchai; Naseri, Kamal; Pucheta, Eduardo; Ramírez-Collantes, David A.; Raveh, Eran; Romão, Roberto L.; Torres-Díaz, Cristian; Val, James; Veiga, José Pablo; Wang, Deli; Yuan, Xia; Zaady, Eli

2015-01-01

Aim Geographic, climatic, and soil factors are major drivers of plant beta diversity, but their importance for dryland plant communities is poorly known. This study aims to: i) characterize patterns of beta diversity in global drylands, ii) detect common environmental drivers of beta diversity, and iii) test for thresholds in environmental conditions driving potential shifts in plant species composition. Location 224 sites in diverse dryland plant communities from 22 geographical regions in six continents. Methods Beta diversity was quantified with four complementary measures: the percentage of singletons (species occurring at only one site), Whittake’s beta diversity (β(W)), a directional beta diversity metric based on the correlation in species occurrences among spatially contiguous sites (β(R2)), and a multivariate abundance-based metric (β(MV)). We used linear modelling to quantify the relationships between these metrics of beta diversity and geographic, climatic, and soil variables. Results Soil fertility and variability in temperature and rainfall, and to a lesser extent latitude, were the most important environmental predictors of beta diversity. Metrics related to species identity (percentage of singletons and β(W)) were most sensitive to soil fertility, whereas those metrics related to environmental gradients and abundance ((β(R2)) and β(MV)) were more associated with climate variability. Interactions among soil variables, climatic factors, and plant cover were not important determinants of beta diversity. Sites receiving less than 178 mm of annual rainfall differed sharply in species composition from more mesic sites (> 200 mm). Main conclusions Soil fertility and variability in temperature and rainfall are the most important environmental predictors of variation in plant beta diversity in global drylands. Our results suggest that those sites annually receiving ~ 178 mm of rainfall will be especially sensitive to future climate changes. These findings may help to define appropriate conservation strategies for mitigating effects of climate change on dryland vegetation. PMID:25914437

Time dependent analysis of assay comparability: a novel approach to understand intra- and inter-site variability over time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winiwarter, Susanne; Middleton, Brian; Jones, Barry; Courtney, Paul; Lindmark, Bo; Page, Ken M.; Clark, Alan; Landqvist, Claire

2015-09-01

We demonstrate here a novel use of statistical tools to study intra- and inter-site assay variability of five early drug metabolism and pharmacokinetics in vitro assays over time. Firstly, a tool for process control is presented. It shows the overall assay variability but allows also the following of changes due to assay adjustments and can additionally highlight other, potentially unexpected variations. Secondly, we define the minimum discriminatory difference/ratio to support projects to understand how experimental values measured at different sites at a given time can be compared. Such discriminatory values are calculated for 3 month periods and followed over time for each assay. Again assay modifications, especially assay harmonization efforts, can be noted. Both the process control tool and the variability estimates are based on the results of control compounds tested every time an assay is run. Variability estimates for a limited set of project compounds were computed as well and found to be comparable. This analysis reinforces the need to consider assay variability in decision making, compound ranking and in silico modeling.

Deglacial Dust Provenance Changes in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific and Implications for ITCZ Movement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, R.; Marcantonio, F.

2009-12-01

The provenance of the eolian dust component of deep-sea sediments has the potential to offer insights into changes in past atmospheric circulation patterns. Measuring temporal changes in dust provenance can shed more light on changes in the position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), a region in which dust is removed from the upper troposphere by deep convection and scavenged by precipitation. The ITCZ should, therefore, act as a barrier separating wind-blown northern versus southern sources. Perhaps the best way to trace for provenance of dust sources is through the measurement of radiogenic isotope ratios. Here, we have analyzed Nd, Sr, and Pb isotope ratios in the detrital components extracted from deep-sea sediments in the eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) along a meridional transect at 110W from 3S to 7N (ODP Leg 138, Sites 848 - 853). At each site, the sediments ranged in age from 0 to 25 ka. Detrital component extraction involved the chemical removal of the biogenic and authigenic sedimentary fractions. Preliminary detrital Nd isotope ratios show a range of 2.4 ɛNd units (from -5.7 to -3.3). There are distinct latitudinal trends in the ɛNd values, with more radiogenic values further south and less radiogenic values further north. This distinction holds true for both Holocene and glacial time. The difference in Nd isotope ratios at any one site between Holocene and glacial is smaller for the sites furthest North. The greatest Holocene-glacial differences in ɛNd occur at sites south of 3N, suggesting a distinct detrital component boundary at this latitude. The sites furthest north (7N and 5.29N) show the greatest variability in detrital 87Sr/86Sr isotope ratios, while sites furthest south (equator and 1.5N) show negligible variability. The detrital component of sediment at Site 851 (2.77N) has a Sr isotope variability that is intermediate between the northern and southern values, again suggesting a detrital boundary of some sort. We interpreted these preliminary results to suggest that the ITCZ position was displaced toward the south, with a paleo-position located between Site 851 (2.77N) and Site 852 (5.29N), from its average current location, which is approximately 7N. This supports one hypothesis put forward by McGee et al. [1], based on changes in dust flux for the same transect, that the ITCZ was displaced toward the south during the last glacial period. [1] McGee et al., 2007, EPSL 257, 215-230 .

A structurally based analytic model of growth and biomass dynamics in single species stands of conifers

Treesearch

Robin J. Tausch

2015-01-01

A theoretically based analytic model of plant growth in single species conifer communities based on the species fully occupying a site and fully using the site resources is introduced. Model derivations result in a single equation simultaneously describes changes over both, different site conditions (or resources available), and over time for each variable for each...

Compositional variability in Mediterranean archaeofaunas from Upper Paleolithic Southwest Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, Emily Lena

2018-03-01

Recent meta-analyses of Upper Paleolithic Southwestern European archaeofaunas (Jones, 2015, 2016) have identified a consistent "Mediterranean" cluster from the Last Glacial Maximum through the early Holocene, suggesting similarities in environment and/or consistency in hunting strategy across this region through time despite radical changes in climate. However, while these archaeofaunas from this cluster all derive from sites located within today's Mediterranean bioclimatic region, many of them are from locations far from the Mediterranean Sea - Atlantic Portugal, the Spanish Meseta - which today differ significantly from each other in biotic composition. In this paper, I explore clustering (through cluster analysis and non-metric multidimensional scaling) within the Mediterranean archaeofaunal group. I test for the influence of sample size as well as the geographic variables of site elevation, latitude, and longitude on variability in the large mammal portions of archaeofaunal assemblages. ANOVA shows no relationship between cluster-defined groups and site elevation or longitude; instead, site latitude appears to be a primary contributor to patterning. However, the overall compositional similarity of the Mediterranean archaeofaunas in this dataset suggests more consistency than variability in Upper Paleolithic hunting strategy in this region.

Accounting for Unobserved Time-Varying Quality in Recreation Demand: An Application to a Sonoran Desert Wilderness

EPA Science Inventory

Environmental variables can be important factors in recreation demand. Analysts wishing to quantify environmental quality impacts face the difficult issue of isolating them from unobserved variables. Quality changes may occur in space, varying between sites, or in time, varying b...

Financial Management of a Large Multi-site Randomized Clinical Trial

PubMed Central

Sheffet, Alice J.; Flaxman, Linda; Tom, MeeLee; Hughes, Susan E.; Longbottom, Mary E.; Howard, Virginia J.; Marler, John R.; Brott, Thomas G.

2014-01-01

Background The Carotid Revascularization Endarterectomy versus Stenting Trial (CREST) received five years’ funding ($21,112,866) from the National Institutes of Health to compare carotid stenting to surgery for stroke prevention in 2,500 randomized participants at 40 sites. Aims Herein we evaluate the change in the CREST budget from a fixed to variable-cost model and recommend strategies for the financial management of large-scale clinical trials. Methods Projections of the original grant’s fixed-cost model were compared to the actual costs of the revised variable-cost model. The original grant’s fixed-cost budget included salaries, fringe benefits, and other direct and indirect costs. For the variable-cost model, the costs were actual payments to the clinical sites and core centers based upon actual trial enrollment. We compared annual direct and indirect costs and per-patient cost for both the fixed and variable models. Differences between clinical site and core center expenditures were also calculated. Results Using a variable-cost budget for clinical sites, funding was extended by no-cost extension from five to eight years. Randomizing sites tripled from 34 to 109. Of the 2,500 targeted sample size, 138 (5.5%) were randomized during the first five years and 1,387 (55.5%) during the no-cost extension. The actual per-patient costs of the variable model were 9% ($13,845) of the projected per-patient costs ($152,992) of the fixed model. Conclusions Performance-based budgets conserve funding, promote compliance, and allow for additional sites at modest additional cost. Costs of large-scale clinical trials can thus be reduced through effective management without compromising scientific integrity. PMID:24661748

Differential response of corals to regional mass-warming events as evident from skeletal Sr/Ca and Mg/Ca ratios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clarke, Harry; D'Olivo, Juan Pablo; Falter, James; Zinke, Jens; Lowe, Ryan; McCulloch, Malcolm

2017-05-01

During the summer of 2010/2011, a regional marine heat wave resulted in coral bleaching of variable severity along much of the western coastline of Australia. At Ningaloo Reef, a 300 km long fringing reef system and World Heritage site, highly contrasting coral bleaching was observed between two morphologically distinct nearshore reef communities located on either side of the Ningaloo Peninsula: Tantabiddi (˜20% bleaching) and Bundegi (˜90% bleaching). For this study, we collected coral cores (Porites sp.) from Tantabiddi and Bundegi reef sites to assess the response of the Sr/Ca temperature proxy and Mg/Ca ratios to the variable levels of thermal stress imposed at these two sites during the 2010/2011 warming event. We found that there was an anomalous increase in Sr/Ca and decrease in Mg/Ca ratios in the Bundegi record that was coincident with the timing of severe coral bleaching at the site, while no significant changes were observed in the Tantabiddi record. We show that the change in the relationship of Sr/Ca and Mg/Ca ratios with temperature at Bundegi during the 2010/2011 event reflects changes in related coral "vital" processes during periods of environmental stress. These changes were found to be consistent with a reduction in active transport of Ca2+ to the site of calcification leading to a reduction in calcification rates and reduced Rayleigh fractionation of incorporated trace elements.

Large and local-scale influences on physical and chemical characteristics of coastal waters of Western Europe during winter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tréguer, Paul; Goberville, Eric; Barrier, Nicolas; L'Helguen, Stéphane; Morin, Pascal; Bozec, Yann; Rimmelin-Maury, Peggy; Czamanski, Marie; Grossteffan, Emilie; Cariou, Thierry; Répécaud, Michel; Quéméner, Loic

2014-11-01

There is now a strong scientific consensus that coastal marine systems of Western Europe are highly sensitive to the combined effects of natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change. However, it still remains challenging to assess the spatial and temporal scales at which climate influence operates. While large-scale hydro-climatic indices, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) or the East Atlantic Pattern (EAP) and the weather regimes such as the Atlantic Ridge (AR), are known to be relevant predictors of physical processes, changes in coastal waters can also be related to local hydro-meteorological and geochemical forcing. Here, we study the temporal variability of physical and chemical characteristics of coastal waters located at about 48°N over the period 1998-2013 using (1) sea surface temperature, (2) sea surface salinity and (3) nutrient concentration observations for two coastal sites located at the outlet of the Bay of Brest and off Roscoff, (4) river discharges of the major tributaries close to these two sites and (5) regional and local precipitation data over the region of interest. Focusing on the winter months, we characterize the physical and chemical variability of these coastal waters and document changes in both precipitation and river runoffs. Our study reveals that variability in coastal waters is connected to the large-scale North Atlantic atmospheric circulation but is also partly explained by local river influences. Indeed, while the NAO is strongly related to changes in sea surface temperature at the Brest and Roscoff sites, the EAP and the AR have a major influence on precipitations, which in turn modulate river discharges that impact sea surface salinity at the scale of the two coastal stations.

Disentangling the effects of climate variability and functional change on ecosystem carbon dynamics using semi-empirical modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, J.; van der Linden, L.; Lasslop, G.; Carvalhais, N.; Pilegaard, K.; Beier, C.; Ibrom, A.

2012-04-01

The ecosystem carbon balance is affected by both external climatic forcing (e.g. solar radiation, air temperature and humidity) and internal dynamics in the ecosystem functional properties (e.g. canopy structure, leaf photosynthetic capacity and carbohydrate reserve). In order to understand to what extent and at which temporal scale, climatic variability and functional changes regulated the interannual variation (IAV) in the net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (NEE), data-driven analysis and semi-empirical modelling (Lasslop et al. 2010) were performed based on a 13 year NEE record in a temperate deciduous forest (Pilegaard et al 2011, Wu et al. 2012). We found that the sensitivity of carbon fluxes to climatic variability was significantly higher at shorter than at longer time scales and changed seasonally. This implied that the changing distribution of climate anomalies during the vegetation period could have stronger impacts on future ecosystem carbon balances than changes in average climate. At the annual time scale, approximately 80% of the interannual variability in NEE was attributed to the variation in the model parameters, indicating the observed IAV in the carbon dynamics at the investigated site was dominated by changes in ecosystem functioning. In general this study showed the need for understanding the mechanisms of ecosystem functional change. The method can be applied at other sites to explore ecosystem behavior across different plant functional types and climate gradients. Incorporating ecosystem functional change into process based models will reduce the uncertainties in long-term predictions of ecosystem carbon balances in global climate change projections. Acknowledgements. This work was supported by the EU FP7 project CARBO-Extreme, the DTU Climate Centre and the Danish national project ECOCLIM (Danish Council for Strategic Research).

Holocene hydrologic variation at Lake Titicaca, Bolivia/Peru, and its relationship to North Atlantic climate variation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, P. A.; Fritz, S. C.; Garland, J.; Ekdahl, E.

2005-10-01

A growing number of sites in the Northern Hemisphere show centennial- to millennial-scale climate variation that has been correlated with change in solar variability or with change in North Atlantic circulation. However, it is unclear how (or whether) these oscillations in the climate system are manifest in the Southern Hemisphere because of a lack of sites with suitably high sampling resolution. In this paper, we reconstruct the lake-level history of Lake Titicaca, using the carbon isotopic content of sedimentary organic matter, to evaluate centennial- to millennial-scale precipitation variation and its phasing relative to sites in the Northern Hemisphere. The pattern and timing of lake-level change in Lake Titicaca is similar to the ice-rafted debris record of Holocene Bond events, demonstrating a possible coupling between precipitation variation on the Altiplano and North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures (SSTs). The cold periods of the Holocene Bond events correspond with periods of increased precipitation on the Altiplano. Holocene precipitation variability on the Altiplano is anti-phased with respect to precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere monsoon region. More generally, the tropical Andes underwent large changes in precipitation on centennial-to-millennial timescales during the Holocene.

Methane Seeps in the Gulf of Mexico: repeat acoustic surveying shows highly temporally and spatially variable venting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beaumont, B. C.; Raineault, N.

2016-02-01

Scientists have recognized that natural seeps account for a large amount of methane emissions. Despite their widespread occurrence in areas like the Gulf of Mexico, little is known about the temporal variability and site-scale spatial variability of venting over time. We used repeat acoustic surveys to compare multiple days of seep activity and determine the changes in the locus of methane emission and plume height. The Sleeping Dragon site was surveyed with an EM302 multibeam sonar on three consecutive days in 2014 and 4 days within one week in 2015. The data revealed three distinctive plume regions. The locus of venting varied by 10-60 meters at each site. The plume that exhibited the least spatial variability in venting, was also the most temporally variable. This seep was present in one-third of survey dates in 2014 and three quarters of survey dates in 2015, showing high day-to-day variability. The plume height was very consistent for this plume, whereas the other plumes were more consistent temporally, but varied in maximum plume height detection by 25-85 m. The single locus of emission at the site that had high day-to-day variability may be due to a single conduit for methane release, which is sometimes closed off by carbonate or clathrate hydrate formation. In addition to day-to-day temporal variability, the locus of emission at one site was observed to shift from a point-source in 2014 to a diffuse source in 2015 at a nearby location. ROV observations showed that one of the seep sites that closed off temporarily, experienced an explosive breakthrough of gas, releasing confined methane and blowing out rock. The mechanism that causes on/off behavior of certain plumes, combined with the spatial variability of the locus of methane release shown in this study may point to carbonate or hydrate formation in the seep plumbing system and should be further investigated.

Fine-Scale Variability in Harbor Seal Foraging Behavior

PubMed Central

Wilson, Kenady; Lance, Monique; Jeffries, Steven; Acevedo-Gutiérrez, Alejandro

2014-01-01

Understanding the variability of foraging behavior within a population of predators is important for determining their role in the ecosystem and how they may respond to future ecosystem changes. However, such variability has seldom been studied in harbor seals on a fine spatial scale (<30 km). We used a combination of standard and Bayesian generalized linear mixed models to explore how environmental variables influenced the dive behavior of harbor seals. Time-depth recorders were deployed on harbor seals from two haul-out sites in the Salish Sea in 2007 (n = 18) and 2008 (n = 11). Three behavioral bout types were classified from six dive types within each bout; however, one of these bout types was related to haul-out activity and was excluded from analyses. Deep foraging bouts (Type I) were the predominant type used throughout the study; however, variation in the use of bout types was observed relative to haul-out site, season, sex, and light (day/night). The proportional use of Type I and Type II (shallow foraging/traveling) bouts differed dramatically between haul-out sites, seasons, sexes, and whether it was day or night; individual variability between seals also contributed to the observed differences. We hypothesize that this variation in dive behavior was related to habitat or prey specialization by seals from different haul-out sites, or individual variability between seals in the study area. The results highlight the potential influence of habitat and specialization on the foraging behavior of harbor seals, and may help explain the variability in diet that is observed between different haul-out site groups in this population. PMID:24717815

The use of time-series data in the assessment of macrobenthic community change after the cessation of sewage-sludge disposal in Liverpool Bay (UK).

PubMed

Whomersley, P; Schratzberger, M; Huxham, M; Bates, H; Rees, H

2007-01-01

Sewage sludge was disposed of in Liverpool Bay for over 100 years. Annual amounts increased from 0.5 million tonnes per annum in 1900 to approximately 2 million tonnes per annum by 1995. Macrofauna and a suite of environmental variables were collected at a station adjacent to, and a reference station distant from, the disposal site over 13 years, spanning a pre- (1990-1998) and post- (1999-2003) cessation period. Univariate and multivariate analyses of the time-series data showed significant community differences between reference and disposal site stations and multivariate analyses revealed station-specific community development post-disposal. Temporal variability of communities collected at the disposal station post-cessation was higher than during years of disposal, when temporally stable dominance patterns of disturbance-tolerant species had established. Alterations of community structure post-disturbance reflected successional changes possibly driven by facilitation. Subtle faunistic changes at the Liverpool Bay disposal site indicate that the near-field effects of the disposal of sewage sludge were small and therefore could be considered environmentally acceptable.

From process to proxy: Ecological challenges and opportunities of tree-ring based environmental reconstructions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilmking, Martin; Buras, Allan; Heinrich, Ingo; Scharnweber, Tobias; Simard, Sonia; Smiljanic, Marko; van der Maaten, Ernst; van der Maaten-Theunissen, Marieke

2014-05-01

Trees are sessile, long-living organisms and as such constantly need to adapt to changing environmental conditions. Accordingly, they often show high phenotypic plasticity (the ability to change phenotypic traits, such as allocation of resources) in response to environmental change. This high phenotypic plasticity is generally considered as one of the main ingredients for a sessile organism to survive and reach high ages. Precisely because of the ability of trees to reach old age and their in-ability to simply run away when conditions get worse, growth information recorded in tree rings has long been used as a major environmental proxy, covering time scales from decades to millennia. Past environmental conditions (e.g. climate) are recorded in i.e. annual tree-ring width, early- and latewood width, wood density, isotopic concentrations, cell anatomy or wood chemistry. One prerequisite for a reconstruction is that the relationship between the environmental variable influencing tree growth and the tree-growth variable itself is stable through time. This, however, might contrast the ecological theory of high plasticity and the trees ability to adapt to change. To untangle possible mechanisms leading to stable or unstable relationships between tree growth and environmental variables, it is helpful to have exact site information and several proxy variables of each tree-ring series available. Although we gain insight into the environmental history of a sampling site when sampling today, this is extremely difficult when using archeological wood. In this latter case, we face the additional challenge of unknown origin, provenance and (or) site conditions, making it even more important to use multiple proxy time-series from the same sample. Here, we review typical examples, where the relationship between tree growth and environmental variables seems 1) stable and 2) instable through time, and relate these two cases to ecological theory. Based on ecological theory, we then give recommendations to improve the reliability of environmental reconstructions using tree rings.

Historical trends in salinity and substrate in central Florida Bay: A paleoecological reconstruction using modern analogue data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brewster-Wingard, G. L.; Ishman, S.E.

1999-01-01

Understanding the natural spatial and temporal variability that exists within an ecosystem is a critical component of efforts to restore systems to their natural state. Analysis of benthic foraminifers and molluscs from modern monitoring sites within Florida Bay allows us to determine what environmental parameters control spatial and temporal variability of their assemblages. Faunal assemblages associated with specific environmental parameters, including salinity and substrate, serve as proxies for an interpretation of paleoecologic data. The faunal record preserved in two shallow (< 2 m) cores in central Florida Bay (Russell Bank and Bob Allen Bank) provides a record of historical trends in environmental parameters for those sites. Analysis of these two cores has revealed two distinct patterns of salinity change at these sites: 1) a long-term trend of slightly increasing average salinity; and 2) a relatively rapid change to salinity fluctuations of greater frequency and amplitude, beginning around the turn of the century and becoming most pronounced after 1940. The degree of variability in substrate types at each locality limits interpretations of substrate trends to specific sites. A common sequence of change is present in the Russell Bank and Bob Allen Bank cores: from mixed grass and bare-sediment indicators at the bottom of the cores, to bare-sediment dwellers in the center, to a dominance of vegetative-cover indicators at the top of the cores. Changes in interpreted salinity patterns around the turn of the century are consistent with the timing of the construction of the Flagler Railroad from 1905 to 1912, and the Tamiami Trail and the canal and levee systems between 1915 and 1928. Beginning around 1940, the changes in the frequency and amplitude of salinity fluctuations may be related to changes in water management practices, meteorologic events (frequent hurricanes coupled with severe droughts in 1943 and 1944), or a combination of factors. The correspondence of these changes in Florida Bay with changes in the terrestrial Everglades suggests factors affecting the entire ecosystem are responsible for the salinity and substrate patterns seen in Florida Bay.

Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrology and Productivity of a Pine Plantation

Treesearch

Ge Sun; Devendra M. Amatya; Steven G. McNulty; R. Wayne Skaggs; Joseph H. Hughes

2000-01-01

There are increasing concerns in the forestry community about global climate change and variability associated with elevated atmospheric CO2. Changes in precipitation and increases in air temperature could impose additional stress on forests during the next century. For a study site in Carteret County, North Carolina, the General Circulation...

Ensemble simulations of the role of the stratosphere in the attribution of northern extratropical tropospheric ozone variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hess, P.; Kinnison, D.; Tang, Q.

2015-03-01

Despite the need to understand the impact of changes in emissions and climate on tropospheric ozone, the attribution of tropospheric interannual ozone variability to specific processes has proven difficult. Here, we analyze the stratospheric contribution to tropospheric ozone variability and trends from 1953 to 2005 in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) mid-latitudes using four ensemble simulations of the free running (FR) Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). The simulations are externally forced with observed time-varying (1) sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), (2) greenhouse gases (GHGs), (3) ozone depleting substances (ODS), (4) quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), (5) solar variability (SV) and (6) stratospheric sulfate surface area density (SAD). A detailed representation of stratospheric chemistry is simulated, including the ozone loss due to volcanic eruptions and polar stratospheric clouds. In the troposphere, ozone production is represented by CH4-NOx smog chemistry, where surface chemical emissions remain interannually constant. Despite the simplicity of its tropospheric chemistry, at many NH measurement locations, the interannual ozone variability in the FR WACCM simulations is significantly correlated with the measured interannual variability. This suggests the importance of the external forcing applied in these simulations in driving interannual ozone variability. The variability and trend in the simulated 1953-2005 tropospheric ozone from 30 to 90° N at background surface measurement sites, 500 hPa measurement sites and in the area average are largely explained on interannual timescales by changes in the 30-90° N area averaged flux of ozone across the 100 hPa surface and changes in tropospheric methane concentrations. The average sensitivity of tropospheric ozone to methane (percent change in ozone to a percent change in methane) from 30 to 90° N is 0.17 at 500 hPa and 0.21 at the surface; the average sensitivity of tropospheric ozone to the 100 hPa ozone flux (percent change in ozone to a percent change in the ozone flux) from 30 to 90° N is 0.19 at 500 hPa and 0.11 at the surface. The 30-90° N simulated downward residual velocity at 100 hPa increased by 15% between 1953 and 2005. However, the impact of this on the 30-90° N 100 hPa ozone flux is modulated by the long-term changes in stratospheric ozone. The ozone flux decreases from 1965 to 1990 due to stratospheric ozone depletion, but increases again by approximately 7% from 1990 to 2005. The first empirical orthogonal function of interannual ozone variability explains from 40% (at the surface) to over 80% (at 150 hPa) of the simulated ozone interannual variability from 30 to 90° N. This identified mode of ozone variability shows strong stratosphere-troposphere coupling, demonstrating the importance of the stratosphere in an attribution of tropospheric ozone variability. The simulations, with no change in emissions, capture almost 50% of the measured ozone change during the 1990s at a variety of locations. This suggests that a large portion of the measured change is not due to changes in emissions, but can be traced to changes in large-scale modes of ozone variability. This emphasizes the difficulty in the attribution of ozone changes, and the importance of natural variability in understanding the trends and variability of ozone. We find little relation between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index and large-scale tropospheric ozone variability over the long-term record.

Trends and Controls of inter-annual Variability in the Carbon Budget of Terrestrial Ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cescatti, A.; Marcolla, B.

2014-12-01

The climate sensitivity of the terrestrial carbon budget will substantially affect the sign and strength of the land-climate feedbacks and the future climate trajectories. Current trends in the inter-annual variability of terrestrial carbon fluxes (IAV) may contribute to clarify the relative role of physical and biological controls of ecosystem responses to climate change. For this purpose we investigated how recent climate variability has impacted the carbon fluxes at long-term FLUXNET sites. Using a novel method, the IAV has been factored out in climate induced variability (physical control), variability due to changes in ecosystem functioning (biological control) and the interaction of the two terms. The relative control of the main climatic drivers (temperature, water availability) on the physical and biological sources of IAV has been investigated using both site level fluxes and global gridded products generated from the up-scaling of flux data. Results of this analysis highlight the fundamental role of precipitation trends on the pattern of IAV in the last 30 years. Our findings on the spatial/temporal trends of IAV have been finally confirmed using the signal derived from the global network of atmospheric CO2 concentrations measurements.

Quality of Streams in Johnson County, Kansas, and Relations to Environmental Variables, 2003-07

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rasmussen, Teresa J.; Poulton, Barry C.; Graham, Jennifer L.

2009-01-01

The quality of streams and relations to environmental variables in Johnson County, northeastern Kansas, were evaluated using water, streambed sediment, land use, streamflow, habitat, algal periphyton (benthic algae), and benthic macroinvertebrate data. Water, streambed sediment, and macroinvertebrate samples were collected in March 2007 during base flow at 20 stream sites that represent 11 different watersheds in the county. In addition, algal periphyton samples were collected twice (spring and summer 2007) at one-half of the sites. Environmental data including water and streambed-sediment chemistry data (primarily nutrients, fecal-indicator bacteria, and organic wastewater compounds), land use, streamflow, and habitat data were used in statistical analyses to evaluate relations between biological conditions and variables that may affect them. This report includes an evaluation of water and streambed-sediment chemistry, assessment of habitat conditions, comparison of biological community attributes (such as composition, diversity, and abundance) among sampling sites, placement of sampling sites into impairment categories, evaluation of biological data relative to environmental variables, and evaluation of changes in biological communities and effects of urbanization. This evaluation is useful for understanding factors that affect stream quality, for improving water-quality management programs, and for documenting changing conditions over time. The information will become increasingly important for protecting streams in the future as urbanization continues. Results of this study indicate that the biological quality at nearly all biological sampling sites in Johnson County has some level of impairment. Periphyton taxa generally were indicative of somewhat degraded conditions with small to moderate amounts of organic enrichment. Camp Branch in the Blue River watershed was the only site that met State criteria for full support of aquatic life in 2007. Since 2003, biological quality improved at one rural sampling site, possibly because of changes in wastewater affecting the site, and declined at three urban sites possibly because of the combined effects of ongoing development. Rural streams in the western and southern parts of the county, with land-use conditions similar to those found at the State reference site (Captain Creek), continue to support some organisms normally associated with healthy streams. Several environmental factors contribute to biological indicators of stream quality. The primary factor explaining biological quality at sites in Johnson County was the amount of urbanization upstream in the watershed. Specific conductance of stream water, which is a measure of dissolved solids in water and is determined primarily by the amount of groundwater contributing to streamflow, the amount of urbanization, and discharges from wastewater and industrial sites, was strongly negatively correlated with biological stream quality as indicated by macroinvertebrate metrics. Concentration of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in streambed sediment also was negatively correlated with biological stream quality. Individual habitat variables that most commonly were positively correlated with biological indicators included stream sinuosity, buffer length, and substrate cover diversity. Riffle substrate embeddedness and sediment deposition commonly were negatively correlated with favorable metric scores. Statistical analysis indicated that specific conductance, impervious surface area (a measure of urbanization), and stream sinuosity explained 85 percent of the variance in macroinvertebrate communities. Management practices affecting environmental variables that appear to be most important for Johnson County streams include protection of stream corridors, measures that reduce the effects of impervious surfaces associated with urbanization, reduction of dissolved solids in stream water, reduction of PAHs entering streams and

Use of a handheld low-cost sensor to explore the effect of urban design features on local-scale spatial and temporal air quality variability.

PubMed

Miskell, Georgia; Salmond, Jennifer A; Williams, David E

2018-04-01

Portable low-cost instruments have been validated and used to measure ambient nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) at multiple sites over a small urban area with 20min time resolution. We use these results combined with land use regression (LUR) and rank correlation methods to explore the effects of traffic, urban design features, and local meteorology and atmosphere chemistry on small-scale spatio-temporal variations. We measured NO 2 at 45 sites around the downtown area of Vancouver, BC, in spring 2016, and constructed four different models: i) a model based on averaging concentrations observed at each site over the whole measurement period, and separate temporal models for ii) morning, iii) midday, and iv) afternoon. Redesign of the temporal models using the average model predictors as constants gave three 'hybrid' models that used both spatial and temporal variables. These accounted for approximately 50% of the total variation with mean absolute error±5ppb. Ranking sites by concentration and by change in concentration across the day showed a shift of high NO 2 concentrations across the central city from morning to afternoon. Locations could be identified in which NO 2 concentration was determined by the geography of the site, and others as ones in which the concentration changed markedly from morning to afternoon indicating the importance of temporal controls. Rank correlation results complemented LUR in identifying significant urban design variables that impacted NO 2 concentration. High variability across a relatively small space was partially described by predictor variables related to traffic (bus stop density, speed limits, traffic counts, distance to traffic lights), atmospheric chemistry (ozone, dew point), and environment (land use, trees). A high-density network recording continuously would be needed fully to capture local variations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Sensing Site-Specific Variability in Soil and Plant Phosphorus and Other Mineral Nutrients by X-Ray Fluorescence Spectrometry

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Detection and rapid response to in-season changes of soil nutrient availability and plant needs with weather conditions and site-specific characteristics are essential to the optimal performance of an agronomic crop production system. With recent advances in material science, detector design and se...

Computer software to estimate timber harvesting system production, cost, and revenue

Treesearch

Dr. John E. Baumgras; Dr. Chris B. LeDoux

1992-01-01

Large variations in timber harvesting cost and revenue can result from the differences between harvesting systems, the variable attributes of harvesting sites and timber stands, or changing product markets. Consequently, system and site specific estimates of production rates and costs are required to improve estimates of harvesting revenue. This paper describes...

Initial insights into bacterial succession during human decomposition.

PubMed

Hyde, Embriette R; Haarmann, Daniel P; Petrosino, Joseph F; Lynne, Aaron M; Bucheli, Sibyl R

2015-05-01

Decomposition is a dynamic ecological process dependent upon many factors such as environment, climate, and bacterial, insect, and vertebrate activity in addition to intrinsic properties inherent to individual cadavers. Although largely attributed to microbial metabolism, very little is known about the bacterial basis of human decomposition. To assess the change in bacterial community structure through time, bacterial samples were collected from several sites across two cadavers placed outdoors to decompose and analyzed through 454 pyrosequencing and analysis of variable regions 3-5 of the bacterial 16S ribosomal RNA (16S rRNA) gene. Each cadaver was characterized by a change in bacterial community structure for all sites sampled as time, and decomposition, progressed. Bacteria community structure is variable at placement and before purge for all body sites. At bloat and purge and until tissues began to dehydrate or were removed, bacteria associated with flies, such as Ignatzschineria and Wohlfahrtimonas, were common. After dehydration and skeletonization, bacteria associated with soil, such as Acinetobacter, were common at most body sites sampled. However, more cadavers sampled through multiple seasons are necessary to assess major trends in bacterial succession.

Evaluation of an integrated graphical display to promote acute change detection in ICU patients

PubMed Central

Anders, Shilo; Albert, Robert; Miller, Anne; Weinger, Matthew B.; Doig, Alexa K.; Behrens, Michael; Agutter, Jim

2012-01-01

Objective The purpose of this study was to evaluate ICU nurses’ ability to detect patient change using an integrated graphical information display (IGID) versus a conventional tabular ICU patient information display (i.e. electronic chart). Design Using participants from two different sites, we conducted a repeated measures simulator-based experiment to assess ICU nurses’ ability to detect abnormal patient variables using a novel IGID versus a conventional tabular information display. Patient scenarios and display presentations were fully counterbalanced. Measurements We measured percent correct detection of abnormal patient variables, nurses’ perceived workload (NASA-TLX), and display usability ratings. Results 32 ICU nurses (87% female, median age of 29 years, and median ICU experience of 2.5 years) using the IGID detected more abnormal variables compared to the tabular display [F (1,119)=13.0, p < 0.05]. There was a significant main effect of site [F (1, 119)=14.2], with development site participants doing better. There were no significant differences in nurses’ perceived workload. The IGID display was rated as more usable than the conventional display, [F (1, 60)=31.7]. Conclusion Overall, nurses reported more important physiological information with the novel IGID than tabular display. Moreover, the finding of site differences may reflect local influences in work practice and involvement in iterative display design methodology. Information displays developed using user-centered design should accommodate the full diversity of the intended user population across use sites. PMID:22534099

An Investigation of the Impacts of Climate and Environmental Change on Alpine Lakes in the Uinta Mountains, Utah

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moser, K. A.; Hundey, E. J.; Porinchu, D. F.

2007-12-01

Aquatic systems in alpine and sub-alpine areas of the western United States are potentially impacted by atmospheric pollution and climate change. Because these mountainous regions are an important water resource for the western United States, it is critical to monitor and protect these systems. The Uinta Mountains are an east- west trending mountain range located on the border between Utah, Wyoming and Colorado and downwind of the Wasatch Front, Utah, which is characterized by a rapidly expanding population, as well as mining and industry. This alpine area provides water to many areas in Utah, and contributes approximately nine percent of the water supply to the Upper Colorado River. Our research is focused on determining the impacts of climate change and pollution on alpine lakes in the Uinta Mountains. The results presented here are based on limnological measurements made at 64 Uinta Mountain lakes spanning a longitude gradient of one degree and an elevation gradient of 3000 feet. At each lake maximum depth, conductivity, salinity, pH, Secchi depth, temperature, alkalinity, and concentrations of major anions, cations and trace metals were measured. Principal Components Analysis (PCA) was performed to determine relationships between these variables and to examine the variability of the values of these variables. Our results indicate that steep climate gradients related to elevation and longitude result in clear differences in limnological properties of the study sites, with high elevation lakes characterized by greater amounts of nitrate and nitrite compared to low elevation sites. As well, diatoms in these lakes indicate that many high elevation sites are mesotrophic to eutrophic, which is unexpected for such remote aquatic ecosystems. We hypothesize that elevated nitrate and nitrite levels at high elevation sites are related to atmospherically derived nitrogen, but are being exacerbated relative to lower elevation sites by greater snow cover and reduced plant cover. Paleolimnological analyses of well dated sediments from selected lakes indicate that some of these high elevation sites have undergone rapid and dramatic change beginning in the late 1800s to early 1900s. Many of these lakes have become more productive as indicated by loss-on-ignition and diatom analyses. Although the exact mechanism of these changes is uncertain, the timing closely follows recent increases in air and chironomid-inferred surface water temperatures, and increased fossil fuel burning in the region. Regardless of the exact mechanism, our results clearly indicate dramatic changes at these high elevation sites, which threaten critical water resources.

Attribution of Trends and Variability in Surface Ozone over the United States

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Strode, Sarah; Cooper, Owen; Damo, Megan; Logan, Jennifer; Rodriquez, Jose; Strahan, Susan; Witte, Jacquie

2013-01-01

Concentrations of tropospheric ozone, a greenhouse gas and air pollutant, are impacted by changes in precursor emissions as well meteorology and influx from the stratosphere. Observations show a decreasing trend in summertime surface ozone at rural stations in the eastern United States, while some western stations show increasing trends, particularly in springtime. We use the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) global chemical transport model to investigate the roles of precursor emission changes, meteorological variability, and stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) in explaining observed trends in surface ozone from rural sites in the United States from 1991-2010. The model's interannual variability shows significant correlations with observations from many of the surface sites. We also compare the simulated ozone to ozonesonde data for several locations with sufficiently long records. We compare a simulation with time-dependent precursor emissions, including emission reductions over the United States and Europe and increases over Asia, to a simulation with fixed emissions to quantify the impact of changing emissions on the surface trends. The simulation with varying emissions reproduces much of the east-west difference in summertime ozone over the U.S., although it generally underestimates the negative trend in the East. In contrast, the fixed-emission simulation shows increasing ozone at both eastern and western sites. We will discuss possible causes of this behavior, including long-range transport and STE.

Seasonal and latitudinal acclimatization of cardiac transcriptome responses to thermal stress in porcelain crabs, Petrolisthes cinctipes.

PubMed

Stillman, Jonathon H; Tagmount, Abderrahmane

2009-10-01

Central predictions of climate warming models include increased climate variability and increased severity of heat waves. Physiological acclimatization in populations across large-scale ecological gradients in habitat temperature fluctuation is an important factor to consider in detecting responses to climate change related increases in thermal fluctuation. We measured in vivo cardiac thermal maxima and used microarrays to profile transcriptome heat and cold stress responses in cardiac tissue of intertidal zone porcelain crabs across biogeographic and seasonal gradients in habitat temperature fluctuation. We observed acclimatization dependent induction of heat shock proteins, as well as unknown genes with heat shock protein-like expression profiles. Thermal acclimatization had the largest effect on heat stress responses of extensin-like, beta tubulin, and unknown genes. For these genes, crabs acclimatized to thermally variable sites had higher constitutive expression than specimens from low variability sites, but heat stress dramatically induced expression in specimens from low variability sites and repressed expression in specimens from highly variable sites. Our application of ecological transcriptomics has yielded new biomarkers that may represent sensitive indicators of acclimatization to habitat temperature fluctuation. Our study also has identified novel genes whose further description may yield novel understanding of cellular responses to thermal acclimatization or thermal stress.

Quantification of the effects of ocean acidification on sediment microbial communities in the environment: the importance of ecosystem approaches.

PubMed

Hassenrück, Christiane; Fink, Artur; Lichtschlag, Anna; Tegetmeyer, Halina E; de Beer, Dirk; Ramette, Alban

2016-05-01

To understand how ocean acidification (OA) influences sediment microbial communities, naturally CO2-rich sites are increasingly being used as OA analogues. However, the characterization of these naturally CO2-rich sites is often limited to OA-related variables, neglecting additional environmental variables that may confound OA effects. Here, we used an extensive array of sediment and bottom water parameters to evaluate pH effects on sediment microbial communities at hydrothermal CO2 seeps in Papua New Guinea. The geochemical composition of the sediment pore water showed variations in the hydrothermal signature at seep sites with comparable pH, allowing the identification of sites that may better represent future OA scenarios. At these sites, we detected a 60% shift in the microbial community composition compared with reference sites, mostly related to increases in Chloroflexi sequences. pH was among the factors significantly, yet not mainly, explaining changes in microbial community composition. pH variation may therefore often not be the primary cause of microbial changes when sampling is done along complex environmental gradients. Thus, we recommend an ecosystem approach when assessing OA effects on sediment microbial communities under natural conditions. This will enable a more reliable quantification of OA effects via a reduction of potential confounding effects. © FEMS 2016.

Changes in precipitation isotope-climate relationships from temporal grouping and aggregation of weekly-resolved USNIP data: impacts on paleoclimate and environmental applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akers, P. D.; Welker, J. M.

2015-12-01

Spatial variations in precipitation isotopes have been the focus of much recent research, but relatively less work has explored changes at various temporal scales. This is partly because most spatially-diverse and long-term isotope databases are offered at a monthly resolution, while daily or event-level records are spatially and temporally limited by cost and logistics. A subset of 25 United States Network for Isotopes in Precipitation (USNIP) sites with weekly-resolution in the east-central United States was analyzed for site-specific relationships between δ18O and δD (the local meteoric water line/LMWL), δ18O and surface temperature, and δ18O and precipitation amount. Weekly data were then aggregated into monthly and seasonal data to examine the effect of aggregation on correlation and slope values for each of the relationships. Generally, increasing aggregation improved correlations (>25% for some sites) due to a reduced effect of extreme values, but estimates on regression variable error increased (>100%) because of reduced sample sizes. Aggregation resulted in small, but significant drops (5-25%) in relationship slope values for some sites. Weekly data were also grouped by month and season to explore changes in relationships throughout the year. Significant subannual variability exists in slope values and correlations even for sites with very strong overall correlations. LMWL slopes are highest in winter and lowest in summer, while the δ18O-surface temperature relationship is strongest in spring. Despite these overall trends, a high level of month-to-month and season-to-season variability is the norm for these sites. Researchers blindly applying overall relationships drawn from monthly-resolved databases to paleoclimate or environmental research risk assuming these relationships apply at all temporal resolutions. When possible, researchers should match the temporal resolution used to calculate an isotopic relationship with the temporal resolution of their applied proxy.

Changes in thermocline structure in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific since the Last Glacial Maximum: A comparative study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McChesney, C. L.; Ford, H. L.; McManus, J. F.

2016-12-01

The Eastern Equatorial Pacific (EEP) is an important region of study due to its dynamic nature and role in El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is the biggest source of global interannual variability. The EEP is characterized by cool sea surface temperatures that are tightly coupled to a shallow thermocline. Variability in the depth of the EEP thermocline is important in initiating and propagating El Niño events. Here, we investigate changes in thermocline depth during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to gain insight into how conditions within the EEP changed in the context of different boundary conditions (e.g., low CO2, greater ice volume). Using the stable oxygen isotope values of planktonic foraminifera from a range of calcification depths in the water column, we show that the thermocline was deep during the LGM relative to the Holocene at Ocean Drilling Program Site 849 (0°N, 110°W, 3839 m water depth). In comparison to previous studies that have been done in the region, site 849 has the smallest change of δ18O surface values, indicating less glacial cooling. However, site 849 displays even less apparent cooling in subsurface isotopic values, with a difference of -0.39 ‰ when comparing the LGM to the Holocene, suggesting little temperature change. The δ18O values of site 849 during the LGM had a smaller range between subsurface and surface foraminifera of 1.64‰ compared to the Holocene range of 2.11‰. This difference indicates that the thermocline was deeper in the equatorial cold tongue during the LGM. A deep thermocline may have inhibited some of the thermocline related feedbacks in ENSO variability and led to reduced ENSO during the LGM. Future Mg/Ca data will be incorporated to verify temperature.

Insights from a network of long-term measurements of biosphere-atmospheric exchanges of water vapor and carbon dioxide in southern Arizona

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scott, R. L.; Barron-Gafford, G.; Biederman, J. A.

2016-12-01

Around one-third of Earth's land surface is classified as semiarid, and carbon dioxide exchange in these regions has been shown to be an important regulator of both the trend and interannual variability of the terrestrial carbon sink. Fifteen years ago, when we began making measurements of biosphere-atmospheric exchanges of energy, water vapor, and carbon dioxide using eddy covariance in southern Arizona USA, there was paucity of semiarid observations in flux networks like Ameriflux. We started by establishing riparian sites across a woody plant encroachment gradient to quantify the productivity and consumptive plant water use along a iconic and ecologically important desert river. Soon thereafter, we added semiarid grassland, shrubland, and savanna sites that do not have access to groundwater in order to better understand how water limitation and changes in vegetation structure affect ecosystem productivity. Here, we highlight the value of multiyear, multisite flux data for addressing regional to global scale problems associated with groundwater pumping, land cover change, drought, and climate change. For the riparian sites, we find that ecosystem water availability is altered by vegetation structure such that ecosystems with more deeply rooted trees have higher productivity but at a cost of greater groundwater use. For the non-riparian sites, precipitation strongly controls ecosystem water availability and the resultant productivity, but differences in ecosystem structure impact water use efficiency due to the partitioning of evapotranspiration into its component sources. Also, the productivity at sites with more grass, and less woody, plants responds more quickly to precipitation fluctuations including long-term drought conditions. In semiarid regions, variability in water and carbon fluxes is much larger than in more mesic climes. Across our riparian and non-riparian sites, access to more stable groundwater reserves reduces variability in water and carbon fluxes and can decouple ecosystem productivity from precipitation. Finally, we show that the 8% increase in carbon dioxide concentrations over the period of our measurements has not resulted in any apparent changes in ecosystem water use efficiency that is expected and has been reported for northeastern US forests.

Financial management of a large multisite randomized clinical trial.

PubMed

Sheffet, Alice J; Flaxman, Linda; Tom, MeeLee; Hughes, Susan E; Longbottom, Mary E; Howard, Virginia J; Marler, John R; Brott, Thomas G

2014-08-01

The Carotid Revascularization Endarterectomy versus Stenting Trial (CREST) received five years' funding ($21 112 866) from the National Institutes of Health to compare carotid stenting to surgery for stroke prevention in 2500 randomized participants at 40 sites. Herein we evaluate the change in the CREST budget from a fixed to variable-cost model and recommend strategies for the financial management of large-scale clinical trials. Projections of the original grant's fixed-cost model were compared to the actual costs of the revised variable-cost model. The original grant's fixed-cost budget included salaries, fringe benefits, and other direct and indirect costs. For the variable-cost model, the costs were actual payments to the clinical sites and core centers based upon actual trial enrollment. We compared annual direct and indirect costs and per-patient cost for both the fixed and variable models. Differences between clinical site and core center expenditures were also calculated. Using a variable-cost budget for clinical sites, funding was extended by no-cost extension from five to eight years. Randomizing sites tripled from 34 to 109. Of the 2500 targeted sample size, 138 (5·5%) were randomized during the first five years and 1387 (55·5%) during the no-cost extension. The actual per-patient costs of the variable model were 9% ($13 845) of the projected per-patient costs ($152 992) of the fixed model. Performance-based budgets conserve funding, promote compliance, and allow for additional sites at modest additional cost. Costs of large-scale clinical trials can thus be reduced through effective management without compromising scientific integrity. © 2014 The Authors. International Journal of Stroke © 2014 World Stroke Organization.

Disentangling synergistic climate drivers on the evolution of two species of planktonic foraminifera on regional and global scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brombacher, A.; Wilson, P. A.; Bailey, I.; Ezard, T. H. G.

2016-02-01

Evolution is driven by a combination of biotic and abiotic factors. When quantifying the effects of abiotic drivers, evolutionary change is generally described as a response to a single environmental parameter assumed to represent global climate. However, climate is a complex system of many interacting factors and characterized by high regional variability. Therefore, to understand the role of climate in evolutionary change, we need to consider multiple environmental parameters, across local, regional and global scales, as well as their interactions. The deep-sea microfossil record is sufficiently complete that sufficiently continuous multivariate climatic and multivariate trait data can be obtained from the same samples. Here we present morphological records of the planktonic foraminifera species Globoconella puncticulata and Truncorotalia crassaformis over a 500,000-year interval directly preceding the extinction of G. puncticulata (2.41 Ma). Material was collected from five North Atlantic sites (ODP Sites 659 [18° N], 925 [3° N] and 981 [55° N], IODP Site U1313 [41° N] and DSDP Site 606 [37° N]). Test size and shape of over 35,000 individuals were measured and compared to site-specific records of sea surface temperature, primary productivity and marine aeolian dust deposition, as well as to global records of ice volume, ocean circulation and atmospheric CO2, and all two-way interactions. Morphological parameters respond weakly to individual climate parameters. Once interactions among all studied climate parameters were incorporated, abiotic change explained around 35% of the evolutionary variance. Observed covariances between environmental parameters vary strongly with glacial-interglacial cyclicity, implying that the relationships among climate variables and their relative influences on evolutionary change varied through time. This time dependence cautions against unfettered use of dimension reduction techniques, such as principal components analysis, to extract a single, supposedly dominant, proxy. Furthermore species' responses differed between geographic locations, impressing the need to test how interactions among multiple climate variables at different regional settings shape the biotic microevolutionary response to local and global abiotic change.

A Hierarchical Analysis of Tree Growth and Environmental Drivers Across Eastern US Temperate Forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mantooth, J.; Dietze, M.

2014-12-01

Improving predictions of how forests in the eastern United States will respond to future global change requires a better understanding of the drivers of variability in tree growth rates. Current inventory data lack the temporal resolution to characterize interannual variability, while existing growth records lack the extent required to assess spatial scales of variability. Therefore, we established a network of forest inventory plots across ten sites across the eastern US, and measured growth in adult trees using increment cores. Sites were chosen to maximize climate space explored, while within sites, plots were spread across primary environmental gradients to explore landscape-level variability in growth. Using the annual growth record available from tree cores, we explored the responses of trees to multiple environmental covariates over multiple spatial and temporal scales. We hypothesized that within and across sites growth rates vary among species, and that intraspecific growth rates increase with temperature along a species' range. We also hypothesized that trees show synchrony in growth responses to landscape-scale climatic changes. Initial analyses of growth increments indicate that across sites, trees with intermediate shade tolerance, e.g. Red Oak (Quercus rubra), tend to have the highest growth rates. At the site level, there is evidence for synchrony in response to large-scale climatic events (e.g. prolonged drought and above average temperatures). However, growth responses to climate at the landscape scale have yet to be detected. Our current analysis utilizes hierarchical Bayesian state-space modeling to focus on growth responses of adult trees to environmental covariates at multiple spatial and temporal scales. This predictive model of tree growth currently incorporates observed effects at the individual, plot, site, and landscape scale. Current analysis using this model shows a potential slowing of growth in the past decade for two sites in the northeastern US (Harvard Forest and Bartlett Experimental Forest), however more work is required to determine the robustness of this trend. Finally, these observations are being incorporated into ecosystem models using the Brown Dog informatics tools and the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer (PEcAn) data assimilation workflow.

Productivity benefits of warming at regional scale could be offset by detrimental impacts on site level hydrology.

PubMed

Zeng, Qing; Zhang, Yamian; Wen, Li; Li, Zhaxijie; Duo, Hairui; Lei, Guangchun

2017-11-09

Climate change affects the distribution and persistence of wildlife. Broad scale studies have demonstrated that climate change shifts the geographic ranges and phenology of species. These findings are influential for making high level strategies but not practical enough to guide site specific management. In this study, we explored the environment factors affecting the population of Bar-headed Goose in the key breeding site of Qinghai using generalized additive mixed model (GAMM). Our results showed that 1) there were significant increasing trends in climate variables and river flows to the Qinghai Lake; 2) NDVI in the sites decreased significantly despite the regional positive trend induced by the warmer and wetter climate; 3) NDVI at site scale was negatively correlated to lake water level; and 4) the abundance of Bar-headed Goose decreased significantly at all sites. While the abundance was positively related to NDVI at breeding sites, the GAMM revealed an opposite relationship at foraging areas. Our findings demonstrated the multi-facet effects of climate change on population dynamics; and the effect at global/regional scale could be complicated by site level factors.

Innovative Strategy For Long Term Monitoring Of Metal And Radionuclide Plumes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Eddy-Dilek, Carol; Millings, Margaret R.; Looney, Brian B.

2014-01-08

Many government and private industry sites that were once contaminated with radioactive and chemical wastes cannot be cleaned up enough to permit unrestricted human access. The sites will require long term management, in some cases indefinitely, leaving site owners with the challenge of protecting human health and environmental quality at these "legacy" sites. Long-term monitoring of groundwater contamination is one of the largest projected costs in the life cycle of environmental management at the Savannah River Site, the larger DOE complex, and many large federal and private sites. There is a need to optimize the performance and manage the costmore » of long term surveillance and monitoring at their sites. Currently, SRNL is initiating a pilot field test using alternative protocols for long term monitoring of metals and radionuclides. A key component of the approach is that monitoring efforts are focused on measurement of low cost metrics related to hydrologic and chemical conditions that control contaminant migration. The strategy combines careful monitoring of hydrologic boundary conditions with measurement of master variables such as chemical surrogates along with a smaller number of standard well analyses. In plumes contaminated with metals, master variables control the chemistry of the groundwater system, and include redox variables (ORP, DO, chemicals), pH, specific conductivity, biological community (breakdown/decay products), and temperature. Significant changes in these variables will result in conditions whereby the plume may not be stable and therefore can be used to predict possible plume migration. Conversely, concentration measurements for all types of contaminants in groundwater are a lagging indicator plume movement - major changes contaminant concentrations indicate that contamination has migrated. An approach based on measurement of master variables and explicit monitoring of hydrologic boundary conditions combined with traditional metrics should lead to improved monitoring while simultaneously reducing costs. This paradigm is being tested at the SRS F-Area where an innovative passive remedial system is being monitored and evaluated over the long term prior to traditional regulatory closure. Contaminants being addressed at this site are uranium, strontium-90, iodine-129, and tritium. We believe that the proposed strategies will be more effective in early identification of potential risks; these strategies will also be cost effective because controlling variables are relatively simple to measure. These variables also directly reflect the evolution of the plume through time, so that the monitoring strategy can be modified as the plume 'ages'. This transformational long-term monitoring paradigm will generate large cost savings to DOE, other federal agencies and industry and will provide improved performance and leading indicators of environmental management performance.« less

Prediction, time variance, and classification of hydraulic response to recharge in two karst aquifers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Long, Andrew J.; Mahler, Barbara J.

2013-01-01

Many karst aquifers are rapidly filled and depleted and therefore are likely to be susceptible to changes in short-term climate variability. Here we explore methods that could be applied to model site-specific hydraulic responses, with the intent of simulating these responses to different climate scenarios from high-resolution climate models. We compare hydraulic responses (spring flow, groundwater level, stream base flow, and cave drip) at several sites in two karst aquifers: the Edwards aquifer (Texas, USA) and the Madison aquifer (South Dakota, USA). A lumped-parameter model simulates nonlinear soil moisture changes for estimation of recharge, and a time-variant convolution model simulates the aquifer response to this recharge. Model fit to data is 2.4% better for calibration periods than for validation periods according to the Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency, which ranges from 0.53 to 0.94 for validation periods. We use metrics that describe the shapes of the impulse-response functions (IRFs) obtained from convolution modeling to make comparisons in the distribution of response times among sites and between aquifers. Time-variant IRFs were applied to 62% of the sites. Principal component analysis (PCA) of metrics describing the shapes of the IRFs indicates three principal components that together account for 84% of the variability in IRF shape: the first is related to IRF skewness and temporal spread and accounts for 51% of the variability; the second and third largely are related to time-variant properties and together account for 33% of the variability. Sites with IRFs that dominantly comprise exponential curves are separated geographically from those dominantly comprising lognormal curves in both aquifers as a result of spatial heterogeneity. The use of multiple IRF metrics in PCA is a novel method to characterize, compare, and classify the way in which different sites and aquifers respond to recharge. As convolution models are developed for additional aquifers, they could contribute to an IRF database and a general classification system for karst aquifers.

Evaluating climate change impacts on streamflow variability based on a multisite multivariate GCM downscaling method in the Jing River of China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhi; Jin, Jiming

2017-11-01

Projected hydrological variability is important for future resource and hazard management of water supplies because changes in hydrological variability can cause more disasters than changes in the mean state. However, climate change scenarios downscaled from Earth System Models (ESMs) at single sites cannot meet the requirements of distributed hydrologic models for simulating hydrological variability. This study developed multisite multivariate climate change scenarios via three steps: (i) spatial downscaling of ESMs using a transfer function method, (ii) temporal downscaling of ESMs using a single-site weather generator, and (iii) reconstruction of spatiotemporal correlations using a distribution-free shuffle procedure. Multisite precipitation and temperature change scenarios for 2011-2040 were generated from five ESMs under four representative concentration pathways to project changes in streamflow variability using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for the Jing River, China. The correlation reconstruction method performed realistically for intersite and intervariable correlation reproduction and hydrological modeling. The SWAT model was found to be well calibrated with monthly streamflow with a model efficiency coefficient of 0.78. It was projected that the annual mean precipitation would not change, while the mean maximum and minimum temperatures would increase significantly by 1.6 ± 0.3 and 1.3 ± 0.2 °C; the variance ratios of 2011-2040 to 1961-2005 were 1.15 ± 0.13 for precipitation, 1.15 ± 0.14 for mean maximum temperature, and 1.04 ± 0.10 for mean minimum temperature. A warmer climate was predicted for the flood season, while the dry season was projected to become wetter and warmer; the findings indicated that the intra-annual and interannual variations in the future climate would be greater than in the current climate. The total annual streamflow was found to change insignificantly but its variance ratios of 2011-2040 to 1961-2005 increased by 1.25 ± 0.55. Streamflow variability was predicted to become greater over most months on the seasonal scale because of the increased monthly maximum streamflow and decreased monthly minimum streamflow. The increase in streamflow variability was attributed mainly to larger positive contributions from increased precipitation variances rather than negative contributions from increased mean temperatures.

The influence of meteorological variables on CO2 and CH4 trends recorded at a semi-natural station.

PubMed

Pérez, Isidro A; Sánchez, M Luisa; García, M Ángeles; Pardo, Nuria; Fernández-Duque, Beatriz

2018-03-01

CO 2 and CH 4 evolution is usually linked with sources, sinks and their changes. However, this study highlights the role of meteorological variables. It aims to quantify their contribution to the trend of these greenhouse gases and to determine which contribute most. Six years of measurements at a semi-natural site in northern Spain were considered. Three sections are established: the first focuses on monthly deciles, the second explores the relationship between pairs of meteorological variables, and the third investigates the relationship between meteorological variables and changes in CO 2 and CH 4 . In the first section, monthly outliers were more marked for CO 2 than for CH 4 . The evolution of monthly deciles was fitted to three simple expressions, linear, quadratic and exponential. The linear and exponential are similar, whereas the quadratic evolution is the most flexible since it provided a variable rate of concentration change and a better fit. With this last evolution, a decrease in the change rate was observed for low CO 2 deciles, whereas an increasing change rate prevailed for the rest and was more accentuated for CH 4 . In the second section, meteorological variables were provided by a trajectory model. Backward trajectories from 1-day prior to reaching the measurement site were used to calculate distance and direction averages as well as the recirculation factor. Terciles of these variables were determined in order to establish three intervals with low, medium and high values. These intervals were used to classify the variables following their interval widths and skewnesses. The best correlation between pairs of meteorological variables was observed for the average distance, in particular with horizontal wind speed. Sinusoidal relationships with the average direction were obtained for average distance and for vertical wind speed. Finally, in the third section, the quadratic evolution was considered in each interval of all the meteorological variables. As regards the main result, the greatest increases were obtained for high potential temperature for both gases followed by low and medium boundary layer height for CO 2 and CH 4 , respectively. Combining both meteorological variables provided increases of 22 ± 9 and 0.070 ± 0.019 ppm for CO 2 and CH 4 , respectively, although the number of observations affected is small, around 7%. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

SPAGETTA: a Multi-Purpose Gridded Stochastic Weather Generator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dubrovsky, M.; Huth, R.; Rotach, M. W.; Dabhi, H.

2017-12-01

SPAGETTA is a new multisite/gridded multivariate parametric stochastic weather generator (WG). Site-specific precipitation occurrence and amount are modelled by Markov chain and Gamma distribution, the non-precipitation variables are modelled by an autoregressive (AR) model conditioned on precipitation occurrence, and the spatial coherence of all variables is modelled following the Wilks' (2009) approach. SPAGETTA may be run in two modes. Mode 1: it is run as a classical WG, which is calibrated using weather series from multiple sites, and only then it may produce arbitrarily long synthetic series mimicking the spatial and temporal structure of the calibration data. To generate the weather series representing the future climate, the WG parameters are modified according to the climate change scenario, typically derived from GCM or RCM simulations. Mode 2: the user provides only basic information (not necessarily to be realistic) on the temporal and spatial auto-correlation structure of the weather variables and their mean annual cycle; the generator itself derives the parameters of the underlying AR model, which produces the multi-site weather series. Optionally, the user may add the spatially varying trend, which is superimposed to the synthetic series. The contribution consists of following parts: (a) Model of the WG. (b) Validation of WG in terms of the spatial temperature and precipitation characteristics, including characteristics of spatial hot/cold/dry/wet spells. (c) Results of the climate change impact experiment, in which the WG parameters representing the spatial and temporal variability are modified using the climate change scenarios and the effect on the above spatial validation indices is analysed. In this experiment, the WG is calibrated using the E-OBS gridded daily weather data for several European regions, and the climate change scenarios are derived from the selected RCM simulations (CORDEX database). (d) The second mode of operation will be demonstrated by results obtained while developing the methodology for assessing collective significance of trends in multi-site weather series. The performance of the proposed test statistics is assessed based on large number of realisations of synthetic series produced by WG assuming a given statistical structure and trend of the weather series.

Benthic foraminiferal faunal and geochemical proxies as tracers for paleoenvironmental and paleoceanographic changes in the western Mediterranean over the last 24 ka

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pérez-Asensio, José N.; Cacho, Isabel; Frigola, Jaime; Pena, Leopoldo D.; Sierro, Francisco J.; Asioli, Alessandra; Kuhlmann, Jannis; Huhn, Katrin

2017-04-01

Paleoenvironmental and paleoceanographic changes in the western Mediterranean are reconstructed for the last 24 ka using a combination of benthic foraminiferal assemblages and geochemical proxies measured on benthic foraminiferal shells (Mg/Ca-deep water temperatures and stable isotopes). The studied materials are sediment cores HER-GC-UB06 and MD95-2043recovered at 946 m and 1841 m, respectively, from the Alboran Sea. At present, both core sites are bathed by the Western Mediterranean Deep Water (WMDW), although UB06 core is close to the boundary with the overlying Levantine Intermediate Water (LIW). Therefore, past variability of both water masses can potentially be recorded by the benthic foraminiferal proxies from the studied sites. Benthic foraminiferal assemblages and geochemical data show fluctuations in bottom-water ventilation, organic matter accumulation and deep-water temperatures related to WMDW and LIW circulation. During the glacial interval, an alternation of events showing better ventilation (higher abundance of Cibicides pachyderma) with lower temperatures and events of warmer deep water temperatures with poorer ventilation (Nonionella iridea assemblage, lower abundance of C. pachyderma) are observed. This variability might reflect stronger WMDW formation during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and Heinrich Stadial 1. During the Bølling-Allerød and Younger Dryas (YD) periods, cold temperatures and the lowest oxygenation rates are recorded coinciding with the highest abundance of deep infaunal taxa on both UB06 and MD95-2043 cores. This interval was coetaneous to the deposition of an Organic Rich Layer in the Alboran Sea. However, a re-ventilation trend started at the end of the YD in the shallower site (UB06 core) whereas low-oxygen conditions prevailed until the end of the early Holocene in the deep site (MD95-2043 core). During the early Holocene a significant deep water temperature increase occurred at the shallower site suggesting the replacement of WMDW by warmer water mass, likely LIW. In the middle Holocene, highly variable bottom-water oxygenation and temperatures are observed showing warmer deep waters with less oxygen content (higher deep and intermediate infaunal abundances). The late Holocene (last 4 ka) was characterized by slightly cooler deep water temperatures and enhanced oxygen levels supporting that WMDW became dominant at the shallower site. These observations reveal that Mediterranean thermohaline system has been highly variable during the studied period supporting its high sensitivity to changing climate conditions. These results open a new insight into the Mediterranean sensitivity to Holocene climate variability.

Taking the pulse of mountains: Ecosystem responses to climatic variability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fagre, Daniel B.; Peterson, David L.; Hessl, Amy E.

2003-01-01

An integrated program of ecosystem modeling and field studies in the mountains of the Pacific Northwest (U.S.A.) has quantified many of the ecological processes affected by climatic variability. Paleoecological and contemporary ecological data in forest ecosystems provided model parameterization and validation at broad spatial and temporal scales for tree growth, tree regeneration and treeline movement. For subalpine tree species, winter precipitation has a strong negative correlation with growth; this relationship is stronger at higher elevations and west-side sites (which have more precipitation). Temperature affects tree growth at some locations with respect to length of growing season (spring) and severity of drought at drier sites (summer). Furthermore, variable but predictable climate-growth relationships across elevation gradients suggest that tree species respond differently to climate at different locations, making a uniform response of these species to future climatic change unlikely. Multi-decadal variability in climate also affects ecosystem processes. Mountain hemlock growth at high-elevation sites is negatively correlated with winter snow depth and positively correlated with the winter Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index. At low elevations, the reverse is true. Glacier mass balance and fire severity are also linked to PDO. Rapid establishment of trees in subalpine ecosystems during this century is increasing forest cover and reducing meadow cover at many subalpine locations in the western U.S.A. and precipitation (snow depth) is a critical variable regulating conifer expansion. Lastly, modeling potential future ecosystem conditions suggests that increased climatic variability will result in increasing forest fire size and frequency, and reduced net primary productivity in drier, east-side forest ecosystems. As additional empirical data and modeling output become available, we will improve our ability to predict the effects of climatic change across a broad range of climates and mountain ecosystems in the northwestern U.S.A.

Long-term rise of the Water Table in the Northeast US: Climate Variability, Land-Use Change, or Angry Beavers?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boutt, D. F.

2011-12-01

The scientific evidence that humans are directly influencing the Earth's natural climate is increasingly compelling. Numerous studies suggest that climate change will lead to changes in the seasonality of surface water availability thereby increasing the need for groundwater development to offset those shortages. Research suggests that the Northeast region of the U.S. is experiencing significant changes to its' natural climate and hydrologic systems. Previous analysis of a long-term regional compilation of the water table response to the last 60 years of climate variability in New England documented a wide range of variability. The investigation evaluated the physical mechanisms, natural variability and response of aquifers in New England using 100 long term groundwater monitoring stations with 20 or more years of data coupled with 67 stream gages, 75 precipitation stations, and 43 temperature stations. Groundwater trends were calculated as normalized anomalies and analyzed with respect to regional compiled precipitation, temperature, and streamflow anomalies to understand the sensitivity of the aquifer systems to change. Interestingly, a trend and regression analysis demonstrate that water level fluctuations are producing statistically significant results with increasing water levels over at least the past thirty years at most (80 out of 100) well sites. In this contribution we investigate the causal mechanisms behind the observed ground water level trends using site-by-site land-use change assessments, cluster analysis, and spatial analysis of beaver populations (a possible proxy for beaver activity). Regionally, average annual precipitation has been slightly increasing since 1900, with 95% of the stations having statistically significant positive trends. Despite this, no correlation is observed between the magnitude of the annual precipitation trends and the magnitude of the groundwater level changes. Land-use change throughout the region has primarily taken place in and around existing urban centers with an overall increase in the percentage of forested land. Individual analysis of well sites in areas with documented land-use change from agriculture and forested land cover to urban land use suggests a positive correlation with increasing water levels. Recently, beaver populations been begun to rise that has led to local increases in wetland areas. These regions also show a high positive correlation to the magnitude of water table rise. Local factors such as land-use change and beaver activity appear to overprint and mask the impact of consistent increases in annual precipitation. Rising water tables have major implications for not only water management but also the agriculture, forestry, fishing, and tourism industries as they all depend on the quantity and quality of water resources of the region.

Ecological site-based assessments of wind and water erosion: informing accelerated soil erosion management in rangelands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Webb, Nicholas P.; Herrick, Jeffrey E.; Duniway, Michael C.

2014-01-01

Accelerated soil erosion occurs when anthropogenic processes modify soil, vegetation or climatic conditions causing erosion rates at a location to exceed their natural variability. Identifying where and when accelerated erosion occurs is a critical first step toward its effective management. Here we explore how erosion assessments structured in the context of ecological sites (a land classification based on soils, landscape setting and ecological potential) and their vegetation states (plant assemblages that may change due to management) can inform systems for reducing accelerated soil erosion in rangelands. We evaluated aeolian horizontal sediment flux and fluvial sediment erosion rates for five ecological sites in southern New Mexico, USA, using monitoring data and rangeland-specific wind and water erosion models. Across the ecological sites, plots in shrub-encroached and shrub-dominated vegetation states were consistently susceptible to aeolian sediment flux and fluvial sediment erosion. Both processes were found to be highly variable for grassland and grass-succulent states across the ecological sites at the plot scale (0.25 Ha). We identify vegetation thresholds that define cover levels below which rapid (exponential) increases in aeolian sediment flux and fluvial sediment erosion occur across the ecological sites and vegetation states. Aeolian sediment flux and fluvial erosion in the study area can be effectively controlled when bare ground cover is 100 cm in length is less than ~35%. Land use and management activities that alter cover levels such that they cross thresholds, and/or drive vegetation state changes, may increase the susceptibility of areas to erosion. Land use impacts that are constrained within the range of natural variability should not result in accelerated soil erosion. Evaluating land condition against the erosion thresholds identified here will enable identification of areas susceptible to accelerated soil erosion and the development of practical management solutions.

Understanding Variability in Beach Slope to Improve Forecasts of Storm-induced Water Levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doran, K. S.; Stockdon, H. F.; Long, J.

2014-12-01

The National Assessment of Hurricane-Induced Coastal Erosion Hazards combines measurements of beach morphology with storm hydrodynamics to produce forecasts of coastal change during storms for the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coastlines of the United States. Wave-induced water levels are estimated using modeled offshore wave height and period and measured beach slope (from dune toe to shoreline) through the empirical parameterization of Stockdon et al. (2006). Spatial and temporal variability in beach slope leads to corresponding variability in predicted wave setup and swash. Seasonal and storm-induced changes in beach slope can lead to differences on the order of a meter in wave runup elevation, making accurate specification of this parameter essential to skillful forecasts of coastal change. Spatial variation in beach slope is accounted for through alongshore averaging, but temporal variability in beach slope is not included in the final computation of the likelihood of coastal change. Additionally, input morphology may be years old and potentially very different than the conditions present during forecast storm. In order to improve our forecasts of hurricane-induced coastal erosion hazards, the temporal variability of beach slope must be included in the final uncertainty of modeled wave-induced water levels. Frequently collected field measurements of lidar-based beach morphology are examined for study sites in Duck, North Carolina, Treasure Island, Florida, Assateague Island, Virginia, and Dauphin Island, Alabama, with some records extending over a period of 15 years. Understanding the variability of slopes at these sites will help provide estimates of associated water level uncertainty which can then be applied to other areas where lidar observations are infrequent, and improve the overall skill of future forecasts of storm-induced coastal change. Stockdon, H. F., Holman, R. A., Howd, P. A., and Sallenger Jr, A. H. (2006). Empirical parameterization of setup,swash, and runup. Coastal engineering, 53(7), 573-588.

Depth, Salinity and Temperature Variability in the Maryland Coastal Lagoons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chigbu, P.; Malagon, H.; Doctor, S.

2016-02-01

Alterations in temperature, precipitation, and sea level associated with global climate change will likely affect the hydrology and bathymetry of Maryland Coastal Bays (MCBs). This will in turn have effects on the abundance, distribution and diversity of the inhabiting biota, as well as the biogeochemistry and food web dynamics of the system. Depth, salinity and temperature data collected monthly (April to October) each year (1990 to 2012) from 20 sites in the MCBs were analyzed. Mean depth at most sites increased significantly with year (p<0.02). The rate of change in depth ranged from -0.02m/yr to 0.043m/yr (mean = 0.021m/yr), which is about seven times higher than the global rate of sea level rise. At the predicted mean rate of change in depth, the MCBs would have risen by 0.78m by the year 2050. Salinity varied between years of below average (e.g. 1990, 2003 and 2009), and above average (e.g. 1991, 1999, 2002 and 2007) levels. Inter-annual variability in salinity at most sites was significantly accounted for by variations in freshwater discharge, although the strength of the relationship decreased with proximity of the sites to the inlets. Measurements taken in April of each year since 1990 showed that temperature has increased significantly in the northern bays (Assawoman and Isle of Wight) and Chincoteague Bay, but not in Sinepuxent and Newport Bays. The observed changes in depth, salinity and temperature have important implications with regard to the functioning of the MCBs, and serve as a basis for evaluating future responses of the lagoons to climatic changes.

Sensitivity of river fishes to climate change: The role of hydrological stressors on habitat range shifts.

PubMed

Segurado, Pedro; Branco, Paulo; Jauch, Eduardo; Neves, Ramiro; Ferreira, M Teresa

2016-08-15

Climate change will predictably change hydrological patterns and processes at the catchment scale, with impacts on habitat conditions for fish. The main goal of this study is to assess how shifts in fish habitat favourability under climate change scenarios are affected by hydrological stressors. The interplay between climate and hydrological stressors has important implications in river management under climate change because management actions to control hydrological parameters are more feasible than controlling climate. This study was carried out in the Tamega catchment of the Douro basin. A set of hydrological stressor variables were generated through a process-based modelling based on current climate data (2008-2014) and also considering a high-end future climate change scenario. The resulting parameters, along with climatic and site-descriptor variables were used as explanatory variables in empirical habitat models for nine fish species using boosted regression trees. Models were calibrated for the whole Douro basin using 254 fish sampling sites and predictions under future climate change scenarios were made for the Tamega catchment. Results show that models using climatic variables but not hydrological stressors produce more stringent predictions of future favourability, predicting more distribution contractions or stronger range shifts. The use of hydrological stressors strongly influences projections of habitat favourability shifts; the integration of these stressors in the models thinned shifts in range due to climate change. Hydrological stressors were retained in the models for most species and had a high importance, demonstrating that it is important to integrate hydrology in studies of impacts of climate change on freshwater fishes. This is a relevant result because it means that management actions to control hydrological parameters in rivers will have an impact on the effects of climate change and may potentially be helpful to mitigate its negative effects on fish populations and assemblages. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Multi-regional synthesis of temporal trends in biotic assemblages in streams and rivers of the continental United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, Matthew P.; Brasher, Anne M.D.; Keenen, Jonathan G.

2013-01-01

Biotic assemblages in aquatic ecosystems are excellent integrators and indicators of changing environmental conditions within a watershed. Therefore, temporal changes in abiotic environmental variables often can be inferred from temporal changes in biotic assemblages. Algae, macroinvertebrate, and fish assemblage data were collected from 91 sampling sites in 4 geographic regions (northeastern/north-central, southeastern, south-central, and western), collectively encompassing the continental United States, from 1993 to 2009 as part of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Quality Assessment Program. This report uses a multivariate approach to synthesize temporal trends in biotic assemblages and correlations with relevant abiotic parameters as a function of biotic assemblage, geographic region, and land use. Of the three groups of biota, algal assemblages had temporal trends at the greatest percentage of sites. Of the regions, a greater percentage of sites in the northeastern/north-central and western regions had temporal trends in biotic assemblages. In terms of land use, a greater percentage of watersheds draining agricultural, urban, and undeveloped areas had significant temporal changes in biota, as compared to watersheds with mixed use. Correlations between biotic assemblages and abiotic variables indicate that, in general, macroinvertebrate assemblages correlated with water quality and fish assemblages correlated with physical habitat. Taken together, results indicate that there are regional differences in how individual biotic assemblages (algae, macroinvertebrates, and fish) respond to different abiotic drivers of change.

Climate Change Projection for the Department of Energy's Savannah River Site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Werth, D. W.

2014-12-01

As per recent Department of Energy (DOE) sustainability requirements, the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) is developing a climate projection for the DOE's Savannah River Site (SRS) near Aiken, SC. This will comprise data from both a statistical and a dynamic downscaling process, each interpolated to the SRS. We require variables most relevant to operational activities at the site (such as the US Forest Service's forest management program), and select temperature, precipitation, wind, and humidity as being most relevant to energy and water resource requirements, fire and forest ecology, and facility and worker safety. We then develop projections of the means and extremes of these variables, estimate the effect on site operations, and develop long-term mitigation strategies. For example, given that outdoor work while wearing protective gear is a daily facet of site operations, heat stress is of primary importance to work planning, and we use the downscaled data to estimate changes in the occurrence of high temperatures. For the statistical downscaling, we use global climate model (GCM) data from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project, version 5 (CMIP-5), which was used in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). GCM data from five research groups was selected, and two climate change scenarios - RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 - are used with observed data from site instruments and other databases to produce the downscaled projections. We apply a quantile regression downscaling method, which involves the use of the observed cumulative distribution function to correct that of the GCM. This produces a downscaled projection with an interannual variability closer to that of the observed data and allows for more extreme values in the projections, which are often absent in GCM data. The statistically downscaled data is complemented with dynamically downscaled data from the NARCCAP database, which comprises output from regional climate models forced with GCM output from the CMIP-3 database of GCM simulations. Applications of the downscaled climate projections to some of the unique operational needs of a large DOE weapons complex site are described.

Multiscale spatial and small-scale temporal variation in the composition of Riverine fish communities.

PubMed

Growns, Ivor; Astles, Karen; Gehrke, Peter

2006-03-01

We studied the multiscale (sites, river reaches and rivers) and short-term temporal (monthly) variability in a freshwater fish assemblage. We found that small-scale spatial variation and short-term temporal variability significantly influenced fish community structure in the Macquarie and Namoi Rivers. However, larger scale spatial differences between rivers were the largest source of variation in the data. The interaction between temporal change and spatial variation in fish community structure, whilst statistically significant, was smaller than the variation between rivers. This suggests that although the fish communities within each river changed between sampling occasions, the underlying differences between rivers were maintained. In contrast, the strongest interaction between temporal and spatial effects occurred at the smallest spatial scale, at the level of individual sites. This means whilst the composition of the fish assemblage at a given site may fluctuate, the magnitude of these changes is unlikely to affect larger scale differences between reaches within rivers or between rivers. These results suggest that sampling at any time within a single season will be sufficient to show spatial differences that occur over large spatial scales, such as comparisons between rivers or between biogeographical regions.

Structure and genetic variability of envelope glycoproteins of two antigenic variants of caprine arthritis-encephalitis lentivirus.

PubMed

Knowles, D P; Cheevers, W P; McGuire, T C; Brassfield, A L; Harwood, W G; Stem, T A

1991-11-01

To define the structure of the caprine arthritis-encephalitis virus (CAEV) env gene and characterize genetic changes which occur during antigenic variation, we sequenced the env genes of CAEV-63 and CAEV-Co, two antigenic variants of CAEV defined by serum neutralization. The deduced primary translation product of the CAEV env gene consists of a 60- to 80-amino-acid signal peptide followed by an amino-terminal surface protein (SU) and a carboxy-terminal transmembrane protein (TM) separated by an Arg-Lys-Lys-Arg cleavage site. The signal peptide cleavage site was verified by amino-terminal amino acid sequencing of native CAEV-63 SU. In addition, immunoprecipitation of [35S]methionine-labeled CAEV-63 proteins by sera from goats immunized with recombinant vaccinia virus expressing the CAEV-63 env gene confirmed that antibodies induced by env-encoded recombinant proteins react specifically with native virion SU and TM. The env genes of CAEV-63 and CAEV-Co encode 28 conserved cysteines and 25 conserved potential N-linked glycosylation sites. Nucleotide sequence variability results in 62 amino acid changes and one deletion within the SU and 34 amino acid changes within the TM.

Structure and genetic variability of envelope glycoproteins of two antigenic variants of caprine arthritis-encephalitis lentivirus.

PubMed Central

Knowles, D P; Cheevers, W P; McGuire, T C; Brassfield, A L; Harwood, W G; Stem, T A

1991-01-01

To define the structure of the caprine arthritis-encephalitis virus (CAEV) env gene and characterize genetic changes which occur during antigenic variation, we sequenced the env genes of CAEV-63 and CAEV-Co, two antigenic variants of CAEV defined by serum neutralization. The deduced primary translation product of the CAEV env gene consists of a 60- to 80-amino-acid signal peptide followed by an amino-terminal surface protein (SU) and a carboxy-terminal transmembrane protein (TM) separated by an Arg-Lys-Lys-Arg cleavage site. The signal peptide cleavage site was verified by amino-terminal amino acid sequencing of native CAEV-63 SU. In addition, immunoprecipitation of [35S]methionine-labeled CAEV-63 proteins by sera from goats immunized with recombinant vaccinia virus expressing the CAEV-63 env gene confirmed that antibodies induced by env-encoded recombinant proteins react specifically with native virion SU and TM. The env genes of CAEV-63 and CAEV-Co encode 28 conserved cysteines and 25 conserved potential N-linked glycosylation sites. Nucleotide sequence variability results in 62 amino acid changes and one deletion within the SU and 34 amino acid changes within the TM. Images PMID:1656067

Variation in Responses of Fishes across Multiple Reserves within a Network of Marine Protected Areas in Temperate Waters

PubMed Central

Starr, Richard M.; Wendt, Dean E.; Barnes, Cheryl L.; Marks, Corina I.; Malone, Dan; Waltz, Grant; Schmidt, Katherine T.; Chiu, Jennifer; Launer, Andrea L.; Hall, Nathan C.; Yochum, Noëlle

2015-01-01

Meta-analyses of field studies have shown that biomass, density, species richness, and size of organisms protected by no-take marine reserves generally increase over time. The magnitude and timing of changes in these response variables, however, vary greatly and depend upon the taxonomic groups protected, size and type of reserve, oceanographic regime, and time since the reserve was implemented. We conducted collaborative, fishery-independent surveys of fishes for seven years in and near newly created marine protected areas (MPAs) in central California, USA. Results showed that initially most MPAs contained more and larger fishes than associated reference sites, likely due to differences in habitat quality. The differences between MPAs and reference sites did not greatly change over the seven years of our study, indicating that reserve benefits will be slow to accumulate in California’s temperate eastern boundary current. Fishes in an older reserve that has been closed to fishing since 1973, however, were significantly more abundant and larger than those in associated reference sites. This indicates that reserve benefits are likely to accrue in the California Current ecosystem, but that 20 years or more may be needed to detect significant changes in response variables that are due to MPA implementation. Because of the high spatial and temporal variability of fish recruitment patterns, long-term monitoring is needed to identify positive responses of fishes to protection in the diverse set of habitats in a dynamic eastern boundary current. Qualitative estimates of response variables, such as would be obtained from an expert opinion process, are unlikely to provide an accurate description of MPA performance. Similarly, using one species or one MPA as an indicator is unlikely to provide sufficient resolution to accurately describe the performance of multiple MPAs. PMID:25760856

Impacts of weather on long-term patterns of plant richness and diversity vary with location and management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jonas, Jayne L.; Buhl, Deborah A.; Symstad, Amy J.

2015-01-01

Better understanding the influence of precipitation and temperature on plant assemblages is needed to predict the effects of climate change. Many studies have examined the relationship between plant productivity and weather (primarily precipitation), but few have directly assessed the relationship between plant richness or diversity and weather despite their increased use as metrics of ecosystem condition. We focus on the grasslands of central North America, which are characterized by high temporal climatic variability. Over the next 100 years, these grasslands are predicted to experience further increased variability in growing season precipitation, as well as increased temperatures, due to global climate change. We assess 1) the portion of interannual variability of richness and diversity explained by weather, 2) how relationships between these metrics and weather vary among plant assemblages, and 3) which aspects of weather best explain temporal variability. We used an information-theoretic approach to assess relationships between long-term plant richness and diversity patterns and a priori weather covariates using six datasets from four grasslands. Weather explained up to 49% and 63% of interannual variability in total plant species richness and diversity, respectively. However, richness and diversity responses to specific weather variables varied both among sites and among experimental treatments within sites. In general, we found many instances in which temperature was of equal or greater importance as precipitation, as well as evidence of the importance of lagged effects and precipitation or temperature variability. Although precipitation has been shown to be a key driver of productivity in grasslands, our results indicate that increasing temperatures alone, without substantial changes in precipitation patterns, could have measurable effects on Great Plains grassland plant assemblages and biodiversity metrics. Our results also suggest that richness and diversity will respond in unique ways to changing climate and management can affect these responses; additional research and monitoring will be essential for further understanding of these complex relationships.Read More: http://www.esajournals.org/doi/abs/10.1890/14-1989.1

Impacts of weather on long-term patterns of plant richness and diversity vary with location and management.

PubMed

Jonas, Jayne L; Buhl, Deborah A; Symstad, Amy J

2015-09-01

Better understanding the influence of precipitation and temperature on plant assemblages is needed to predict the effects of climate change. Many studies have examined the relationship between plant productivity and weather (primarily precipitation), but few have directly assessed the relationship between plant richness or diversity and weather despite their increased use as metrics of ecosystem condition. We focus on the grasslands of central North America, which are characterized by high temporal climatic variability. Over the next 100 years, these grasslands are predicted to experience further increased variability in growing season precipitation, as well as increased temperatures, due to global climate change. We assess the portion of interannual variability of richness and diversity explained by weather, how relationships between these metrics and weather vary among plant assemblages, and which aspects of weather best explain temporal variability. We used an information-theoretic approach to assess relationships between long-term plant richness and diversity patterns and a priori weather covariates using six data sets from four grasslands. Weather explained up to 49% and 63% of interannual variability in total plant species richness and diversity, respectively. However, richness and diversity responses to specific weather variables varied both among sites and among experimental treatments within sites. In general, we found many instances in which temperature was of equal or greater importance as precipitation, as well as evidence of the importance of lagged effects and precipitation or temperature variability. Although precipitation has been shown to be a key driver of productivity in grasslands, our results indicate that increasing temperatures alone, without substantial changes in precipitation patterns, could have measurable effects on Great Plains grassland plant assemblages and biodiversity metrics. Our results also suggest that richness and diversity will respond in unique ways to changing climate and management can affect these responses; additional research and monitoring will be essential for further understanding of these complex relationships.

Hydrological responses to channelization and the formation of valley plugs and shoals

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pierce, Aaron R.; King, Sammy L.

2017-01-01

Rehabilitation of floodplain systems focuses on restoring interactions between the fluvial system and floodplain, however, there is a paucity of information on the effects of valley plugs and shoals on floodplain hydrological processes. We investigated hydrologic regimes in floodplains at three valley plug sites, two shoal sites, and three unchannelized sites. Valley plug sites had altered surface and sub-surface hydrology relative to unchannelized sites, while only sub-surface hydrology was affected at shoal sites. Some of the changes were unexpected, such as reduced flood duration and flood depth in floodplains associated with valley plugs. Our results emphasize the variability associated with hydrologic processes around valley plugs and our rudimentary understanding of the effects associated with these geomorphic features. Water table levels were lower at valley plug sites compared to unchannelized sites, however, valley plug sites had a greater proportion of days when water table inundation was above mean root collar depth than both shoal and unchannelized sites as a result of lower root collar depths and higher deposition rates. This study has provided evidence that valley plugs can affect both surface and sub-surface hydrology in different ways than previously thought and illustrates the variability in hydrological responses to valley plug formation.

Using present day observations to detect when ocean acidification exceeds natural variability of surface seawater Ωaragonite

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sutton, A.; Sabine, C. L.; Feely, R. A.

2016-02-01

One of the major challenges to assessing the impact of ocean acidification on marine life is the need to better understand the magnitude of long-term change in the context of natural variability. High-frequency moored observations can be highly effective in defining interannual, seasonal, and subseasonal variability at key locations. Here we present monthly aragonite saturation state (Ωaragonite) climatology for 15 open ocean, coastal, and coral reef locations using 3-hourly moored observations of surface seawater pCO2 and pH collected together since as early as 2009. We then use these present day surface mooring observations to estimate pre-industrial variability at each location and compare these results to previous modeling studies addressing global-scale variability and change. Our observations suggest that open oceans sites, especially in the subtropics, are experiencing Ωaragonite values throughout much of the year which are outside the range of pre-industrial values. In coastal and coral reef ecosystems, which have higher natural variability, seasonal patterns where present day Ωaragonite values exceeding pre-industrial bounds are emerging with some sites exhibiting subseasonal conditions approaching Ωaragonite = 1. Linking these seasonal patterns in carbonate chemistry to biological processes in these regions is critical to identify when and where marine life may encounter Ωaragonite values outside the conditions to which they have adapted.

Combining multiple ecosystem productivity measurements to constrain carbon uptake estimates in semiarid grasslands and shrublands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maurer, G. E.; Krofcheck, D. J.; Collins, S. L.; Litvak, M. E.

2016-12-01

Recent observational and modeling studies have indicated that semiarid ecosystems are more dynamic contributors to the global carbon budget than once thought. Semiarid carbon fluxes, however, are generally small, with high interannual and spatial variability, which suggests that validating their global significance may depend on examining multiple productivity measures and their associated uncertainties and inconsistencies. We examined ecosystem productivity from eddy covariance (NEE), harvest (NPP), and terrestrial biome models (NEPm) at two very similar grassland sites and one creosote shrubland site in the Sevilleta National Wildlife Refuge of central New Mexico, USA. Our goal was to assess site and methodological correspondence in annual carbon uptake, patterns of interannual variability, and measurement uncertainty. One grassland site was a perennial carbon source losing 30 g C m-2 per year on average, while the other two sites were carbon sources or sinks depending on the year, with average net uptake of 5 and 25 g C m-2 per year at the grassland and shrubland site, respectively. Uncertainty values for cumulative annual NEE overlapped between the three sites in most years. When combined, aboveground and belowground annual NPP measurements were 15% higher than annual NEE values and did not confirm a loss of carbon at any site in any year. Despite differences in mean site carbon balance, year-to-year changes in cumulative annual NEE and NPP were similar at all sites with years 2010 and 2013 being favorable for carbon uptake and 2011 and 2012 being unfavorable at all sites. Modeled NEPm data for a number of nearby grid cells reproduced only a fraction of the observed range in carbon uptake and its interannual variability. These three sites are highly similar in location and climate and multiple carbon flux measurements confirm the high interannual variability in carbon flux. The exact magnitude of these fluxes, however, remains difficult to discern.

Comparison of CH4 Emission and CO2 Exchange Between 2013 and 2014 in a Subarctic Peatland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clarizia, P. E.; Verbeke, B. A.; McCalley, C. K.; Werner, S. L.; Malhotra, A.; Burke, S. A.; Crill, P. M.; Varner, R. K.

2014-12-01

One of the major concerns with climate change is the potential feedback from the emission of greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4), from high latitude thawing organic soils. With increasing temperatures in Arctic regions, thawing permafrost palsas transition to wetter sedge-dominated wetlands, which account for 20-39% of global atmospheric CH4 burden. This rapid change in habitat raises the following question: how do CO2 exchange rates and CH4 emissions change along a gradient of permafrost thaw and what is the interannual variability in these fluxes? To address this question, we measured CO2 exchange, CH4 flux, vegetative type and vascular green area (VGA) along a thaw gradient during July of 2013 and 2014 in Stordalen Mire, Sweden. Environmental variables showed that 2013 and 2014 were climatically different; higher photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and measurements of water table level and temperature showed that 2014 was warmer and drier than 2013. Warmer conditions led to higher rates of respiration and gross primary productivity (GPP), with the largest increases observed in the palsa sites, likely due to an increase in mean temperature. Methane fluxes showed a less consistent response to climate differences between years, fluxes were higher in 2014 in the mostly inundated Eriophorum angustifolium dominated site and lower in the drier Sphagnum and Eriophorum vaginatum dominated sites. Results of this study highlight the need for accounting for interannual variability when predicting greenhouse gas emissions during permafrost thaw.

Processes Affecting the Annual Surface Energy Budget at High-Latitude Terrestrial Sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Persson, P. O. G.; Stone, R. S.; Grachev, A.; Matrosova, L.

2012-04-01

Instrumentation at four Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH) sites (Barrow, Eureka, Alert, and Tiksi) have been enhanced in the past 6 years, including during the 2007-2008 IPY. Data from these sites are used to investigate the annual cycle of the surface energy budget (SEB), its coupling to atmospheric processes, and for Alert, its interannual variability. The comprehensive data sets are useful for showing interactions between the atmosphere, surface, and soil at high temporal resolution throughout the annual cycle. Processes that govern the SEB variability at each site are identified, and their impacts on the SEB are quantified. For example, mesoscale modulation of the SEB caused by forcing from the local terrain (downslope wind events) and coastlines (sea and land breezes) are significant at Alert and Eureka, with these processes affecting both radiative, turbulent, and ground heat flux terms in the SEB. Sub-seasonal and interannual variations in atmospheric processes and SEB impact soil thermal structures, such as the depth and timing of the summer active layer. These analyses provide an improved understanding of the processes producing changes in surface and soil temperature, linking them through the SEB as affected by atmospheric processes.

Modelling temporal and large-scale spatial variability of soil respiration from soil water availability, temperature and vegetation productivity indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reichstein, M.; Rey, A.; Freibauer, A.; Tenhunen, J.; Valentini, R.; Soil Respiration Synthesis Team

2003-04-01

Field-chamber measurements of soil respiration from 17 different forest and shrubland sites in Europe and North America were summarized and analyzed with the goal to develop a model describing seasonal, inter-annual and spatial variability of soil respiration as affected by water availability, temperature and site properties. The analysis was performed at a daily and at a monthly time step. With the daily time step, the relative soil water content in the upper soil layer expressed as a fraction of field capacity was a good predictor of soil respiration at all sites. Among the site variables tested, those related to site productivity (e.g. leaf area index) correlated significantly with soil respiration, while carbon pool variables like standing biomass or the litter and soil carbon stocks did not show a clear relationship with soil respiration. Furthermore, it was evidenced that the effect of precipitation on soil respiration stretched beyond its direct effect via soil moisture. A general statistical non-linear regression model was developed to describe soil respiration as dependent on soil temperature, soil water content and site-specific maximum leaf area index. The model explained nearly two thirds of the temporal and inter-site variability of soil respiration with a mean absolute error of 0.82 µmol m-2 s-1. The parameterised model exhibits the following principal properties: 1) At a relative amount of upper-layer soil water of 16% of field capacity half-maximal soil respiration rates are reached. 2) The apparent temperature sensitivity of soil respiration measured as Q10 varies between 1 and 5 depending on soil temperature and water content. 3) Soil respiration under reference moisture and temperature conditions is linearly related to maximum site leaf area index. At a monthly time-scale we employed the approach by Raich et al. (2002, Global Change Biol. 8, 800-812) that used monthly precipitation and air temperature to globally predict soil respiration (T&P-model). While this model was able to explain some of the month-to-month variability of soil respiration, it failed to capture the inter-site variability, regardless whether the original or a new optimized model parameterization was used. In both cases, the residuals were strongly related to maximum site leaf area index. Thus, for a monthly time scale we developed a simple T&P&LAI-model that includes leaf area index as an additional predictor of soil respiration. This extended but still simple model performed nearly as well as the more detailed time-step model and explained 50 % of the overall and 65% of the site-to-site variability. Consequently, better estimates of globally distributed soil respiration should be obtained with the new model driven by satellite estimates of leaf area index.

Spatial population dynamics and temporal analysis of the distribution of Lutzomyia longipalpis (Lutz & Neiva, 1912) (Diptera: Psychodidae: Phlebotominae) in the city of Clorinda, Formosa, Argentina.

PubMed

Gómez-Bravo, Andrea; German, Alba; Abril, Marcelo; Scavuzzo, Marcelo; Salomón, Oscar D

2017-07-25

Lutzomyia longipalpis, the vector for the causal agent of visceral leishmaniasis (VL), has extended its distribution in the southern cone in the Americas. The first urban record of Lu. longipalpis in Argentina was from the City of Clorinda in 2004. The aim of this study was to analyse the monthly distribution and abundance of Lu. longipalpis and to evaluate its association with environmental and climatic variables in Clorinda City, Province of Formosa. Phlebotominae sampling was performed using CDC light mini-traps that were placed in different sites of the city between January 2012 and December 2013. Environmental variables including the normalised difference vegetation index, normalized difference water index, land surface temperature and precipitation were evaluated using a spatiotemporal model. A total of 4996 phlebotomine sandflies were captured during the study period, and eight species were reported: Lu. longipalpis, Migonemyia migonei, Nyssomyia whitmani, Ny. neivai, Brumptomyia guimaraesi, Evandromyia cortelezzii/sallesi, Psathyromyia bigeniculata and Expapillata firmatoi. This is the first urban record of Ex. firmatoi in Argentina. Lutzomyia longipalpis was the most abundant species between 2012 and 2013, and it appeared in all the sampled sites. Moreover, the model applied showed that ground humidity and temperature were significantly associated with the abundance of Lu. longipalpis. This longitudinal approach at city scale allows for modelling that explains more than 60% of the temporal variability of the abundance of Lu. longipalpis based exclusively on satellite obtained data. The results support the hypothesis of steady 'hot spots' of abundance with time, while other sites could change its abundance due to eventual microenvironment changes. The Lu. longipalpis abundance driving factors are breeding site-related variables, highlighting the importance both for modelling and surveillance to use lag data.

Seasonal variability of the carbonate system and coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi at a Scottish Coastal Observatory monitoring site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

León, Pablo; Walsham, Pam; Bresnan, Eileen; Hartman, Susan E.; Hughes, Sarah; Mackenzie, Kevin; Webster, Lynda

2018-03-01

Lack of information about carbonate chemistry in inshore waters is a 'knowledge gap' in assessing the impacts of changing carbonate chemistry on the marine environment. Assessing the response of calcifying phytoplankton to this changing carbonate chemistry requires a greater understanding of temporal variation. This study provides a description of the variability of carbonate parameters at a monitoring site in the eastern coast of Scotland. Four-years of monthly data were analysed to assess the diversity, abundance and morphometrics of coccolithophores in relation to carbonate chemistry and environmental variables. The seasonality in carbonate parameters reflected the seasonal cycle in phytoplankton activity, with higher total alkalinity concentrations and pH and lower dissolved inorganic carbon concentrations during the growing season. The dominant coccolithophore at the site was Emiliania huxleyi which showed a clear seasonal pattern, being more abundant in mid-summer when warmer and nutrient-depleted conditions restricted the annual diatom bloom. This study revealed the presence of three morphotypes of E. huxleyi, type A, type A overcalcified (type AO) and type B, which were seasonally distributed throughout the year. The less calcified form was mainly observed in spring while heavily calcified morphotypes overlapped during summer. Autumn and winter months were dominated by the most calcified form (type AO). These results indicate that the seasonal pattern of E. huxleyi morphotypes was not related to the carbonate concentration at the site. This study reflects the strong interannual variability in carbonate chemistry and the complexity associated with coccolithophore calcification, and highlights the need of long-term data to understand the potential impact of ocean acidification on calcifying phytoplankton.

Case studies of conservation plans that incorporate geodiversity.

PubMed

Anderson, M G; Comer, P J; Beier, P; Lawler, J J; Schloss, C A; Buttrick, S; Albano, C M; Faith, D P

2015-06-01

Geodiversity has been used as a surrogate for biodiversity when species locations are unknown, and this utility can be extended to situations where species locations are in flux. Recently, scientists have designed conservation networks that aim to explicitly represent the range of geophysical environments, identifying a network of physical stages that could sustain biodiversity while allowing for change in species composition in response to climate change. Because there is no standard approach to designing such networks, we compiled 8 case studies illustrating a variety of ways scientists have approached the challenge. These studies show how geodiversity has been partitioned and used to develop site portfolios and connectivity designs; how geodiversity-based portfolios compare with those derived from species and communities; and how the selection and combination of variables influences the results. Collectively, they suggest 4 key steps when using geodiversity to augment traditional biodiversity-based conservation planning: create land units from species-relevant variables combined in an ecologically meaningful way; represent land units in a logical spatial configuration and integrate with species locations when possible; apply selection criteria to individual sites to ensure they are appropriate for conservation; and develop connectivity among sites to maintain movements and processes. With these considerations, conservationists can design more effective site portfolios to ensure the lasting conservation of biodiversity under a changing climate. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

Differences in macroinvertebrate community structure in streams and rivers with different hydrologic regimes in the semi-arid Colorado Plateau

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, Matthew P.; Brasher, Anne M.D.

2011-01-01

Aquatic macroinvertebrates are sensitive to changes in their chemical and physical environment, and as such, serve as excellent indicators of overall ecosystem health. Moreover, temporal and spatial differences in macroinvertebrate community structure can be used to investigate broad issues in aquatic science, such as the hypothesis that changes in climate are likely to have disproportionately large effects on small, intermittent stream ecosystems. We quantified macroinvertebrate community structure and abiotic conditions at ten stream sites with different dominant hydrologic regimes in the Colorado Plateau, ranging from small, intermittent desert streams to large perennial mountain rivers. Considerable differences were observed in community structure between sites with differing hydrologic regimes. Quantitative results of non-metric multidimensional scaling (NMDS) ordination and Spearman rank correlations between physical habitat and macroinvertebrate resemblance matrices indicate that discharge, geomorphic channel unit type (% pools vs. % riffles), percent of substrate composed of sand, and velocity were the subset of measured habitat variables that best explained the differences in macroinvertebrate community structure among sites. Of the 134 taxa identified, nine taxa explained 95 % of the variability in community structure between sites. These results add to a growing base of knowledge regarding the functioning of lotic ecosystems in the Colorado Plateau, and provide timely information on anticipated changes in the structure and function of aquatic ecosystems in response to predicted future environmental conditions.

Using packrat middens to assess grazing effects on vegetation change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fisher, J.; Cole, K.L.; Anderson, R. Scott

2009-01-01

Research on grazing effects usually compares the same sites through time or grazed and ungrazed sites over the same time period. Both approaches are complicated in arid environments where grazing can have a long undocumented history and landscapes can be spatially heterogenous. This work employs both approaches simultaneously by comparing grazed and ungrazed samples through both time and space using fossil plant macrofossils and pollen from packrat middens. A series of 27 middens, spanning from 995 yr BP to the present, were collected from Glen Canyon in southeastern Utah, USA. These middens detail vegetation change just prior to, and following, the historical introduction of domesticated grazers and also compares assemblages from nearby ungrazable mesas. Pre-grazing middens, and modern middens from ungrazed areas, record more native grasses, native herbs, and native shrubs such as Rhus trilobata, Amelanchier utahensis, and Shepherdia rotundifolia than modern middens from grazed areas. Ordinations demonstrate that site-to-site variability is more important than any temporal changes, making selection of comparable grazed versus ungrazed study treatments difficult. But within similar sites, the changes through time show that grazing lowered the number of taxa recorded, and lessened the pre-existing site differences, homogenizing the resultant plant associations in this desert grassland.

A multiscaled model of southwestern willow flycatcher breeding habitat

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hatten, J.R.; Paradzick, C.E.

2003-01-01

The southwestern willow flycatcher (SWFL; Empidonax traillii extimus) is an endangered songbird whose habitat has declined dramatically over the last century. Understanding habitat selection patterns and the ability to identify potential breeding areas for the SWFL is crucial to the management and conservation of this species. We developed a multiscaled model of SWTL breeding habitat with a Geographic Information System (GIS), survey data, GIS variables, and multiple logistic regressions. We obtained presence and absence survey data from a riverine ecosystem and a reservoir delta in south-central Arizona, USA, in 1999. We extracted the GIS variables from satellite imagery and digital elevation models to characterize vegetation and floodplain within the project area. We used multiple logistic regressions within a cell-based (30 X 30 m) modeling environment to (1) determine associations between GIS variables and breeding-site occurrence at different spatial scales (0.09-72 ha), and (2) construct a predictive model. Our best model explained 54% of the variability in breeding-site occurrence with the following variables: vegetation density at the site (0.09 ha), proportion of dense vegetation and variability in vegetation density within a 4.5-ha neighborhood, and amount of floodplain or flat terrain within a 41-ha neighborhood. The density of breeding sites was highest in areas that the model predicted to be most suitable within the project area and at an external test site 200 km away. Conservation efforts must focus on protecting not only occupied patches, but also surrounding riparian forests and floodplain to ensure long-term viability of SWTL. We will use the multiscaled model to map SWTL breeding habitat in Arizona, prioritize future survey effort, and examine changes in habitat abundance and quality over time.

Wave resource variability: Impacts on wave power supply over regional to international scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Helen; Fairley, Iain; Robertson, Bryson; Abusara, Mohammad; Masters, Ian

2017-04-01

The intermittent, irregular and variable nature of the wave energy resource has implications for the supply of wave-generated electricity into the grid. Intermittency of renewable power may lead to frequency and voltage fluctuations in the transmission and distribution networks. A matching supply of electricity must be planned to meet the predicted demand, leading to a need for gas-fired and back-up generating plants to supplement intermittent supplies, and potentially limiting the integration of intermittent power into the grid. Issues relating to resource intermittency and their mitigation through the development of spatially separated sites have been widely researched in the wind industry, but have received little attention to date in the less mature wave industry. This study analyses the wave resource over three different spatial scales to investigate the potential impacts of the temporal and spatial resource variability on the grid supply. The primary focus is the Southwest UK, a region already home to multiple existing and proposed wave energy test sites. Concurrent wave buoy data from six locations, supported by SWAN wave model hindcast data, are analysed to assess the correlation of the resource across the region and the variation in wave power with direction. Power matrices for theoretical nearshore and offshore devices are used to calculate the maximum step change in generated power across the region as the number of deployment sites is increased. The step change analysis is also applied across national and international spatial scales using output from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) ERA-Interim hindcast model. It is found that the deployment of multiple wave energy sites, whether on a regional, national or international scale, results in both a reduction in step changes in power and reduced times of zero generation, leading to an overall smoothing of the wave-generated electrical power. This has implications for the planning and siting of future wave energy arrays when the industry reaches the point of large-scale deployment.

Soil Variable Permeability and Water Phase Change Dynamics in a Wastewater Spray Irrigation Agricultural System Located in a Seasonably Cold Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Darnault, C. J. G.; Daniel, T. J.; Billy, G.; Hopkins, I.; Guo, L.; Jin, Z.; Gall, H. E.; Lin, H.

2017-12-01

The permeability of the upper meter of soils in frozen conditions, commonly referred to as the active layer, can vary exponentially given the time of year. Variable moisture contents along with temperature, radiation, and slope angle of the soil surface can result in variable depths of frozen soils, which can cause the formation of low permeability ice lenses well into the spring thaw period. The wastewater irrigation site known as the "Living Filter" located in State College, PA has been in continuous operation since 1962. On average 5500 m3/day of wastewater is applied to the site annually, even in the winter months when average temperatures can dip as low as -7 °C during the month of January. The Living Filter is not permitted to discharge to surface water and is intended to recharge the Spring Creek basin that directly underlies the site, therefore runoff from the site is not permitted. We hypothesize that water infiltrates the upper meter of the subsurface during the winter in several different ways such as preferential pathways in the ice layer created by plant stems and weak patches of ice thawed by the warm wastewater. 2D conceptual models of the phase change between ice and water in the soil were created in order to predict soil permeability and its change in temperature. The 2D conceptual models can be correlated between observed soil moisture content and soil temperature data in order to validate the model given spray irrigation and weather patterns. By determining the permeability of the frozen soils, irrigation practices can be adjusted for the winter months so as to reduce the risk of any accidental wastewater runoff. The impact of this study will result in a better understanding of the multiphase dynamics of the active layer and their implication on soil hydrology at the Living Filter and other seasonally frozen sites.

Climate variability slows evolutionary responses of Colias butterflies to recent climate change.

PubMed

Kingsolver, Joel G; Buckley, Lauren B

2015-03-07

How does recent climate warming and climate variability alter fitness, phenotypic selection and evolution in natural populations? We combine biophysical, demographic and evolutionary models with recent climate data to address this question for the subalpine and alpine butterfly, Colias meadii, in the southern Rocky Mountains. We focus on predicting patterns of selection and evolution for a key thermoregulatory trait, melanin (solar absorptivity) on the posterior ventral hindwings, which affects patterns of body temperature, flight activity, adult and egg survival, and reproductive success in Colias. Both mean annual summer temperatures and thermal variability within summers have increased during the past 60 years at subalpine and alpine sites. At the subalpine site, predicted directional selection on wing absorptivity has shifted from generally positive (favouring increased wing melanin) to generally negative during the past 60 years, but there is substantial variation among years in the predicted magnitude and direction of selection and the optimal absorptivity. The predicted magnitude of directional selection at the alpine site declined during the past 60 years and varies substantially among years, but selection has generally been positive at this site. Predicted evolutionary responses to mean climate warming at the subalpine site since 1980 is small, because of the variability in selection and asymmetry of the fitness function. At both sites, the predicted effects of adaptive evolution on mean population fitness are much smaller than the fluctuations in mean fitness due to climate variability among years. Our analyses suggest that variation in climate within and among years may strongly limit evolutionary responses of ectotherms to mean climate warming in these habitats. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Climate Change Resilience Planning at the Department of Energy's Savannah River Site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Werth, D. W.; Johnson, A.

2015-12-01

The Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) is developing a site sustainability plan for the Department of Energy's Savannah River Site (SRS) in South Carolina in accordance with Executive Order 13693, which charges each DOE agency with "identifying and addressing projected impacts of climate change" and "calculating the potential cost and risk to mission associated with agency operations". The plan will comprise i) projections of climate change, ii) surveys of site managers to estimate the effects of climate change on site operations, and iii) a determination of adaptive actions. Climate change projections for SRS are obtained from multiple sources, including an online repository of downscaled global climate model (GCM) simulations of future climate and downscaled GCM simulations produced at SRNL. Taken together, we have projected data for temperature, precipitation, humidity, and wind - all variables with a strong influence on site operations. SRNL is working to engage site facility managers and facilitate a "bottom up" approach to climate change resilience planning, where the needs and priorities of stakeholders are addressed throughout the process. We make use of the Vulnerability Assessment Scoring Tool, an Excel-based program designed to accept as input various climate scenarios ('exposure'), the susceptibility of assets to climate change ('sensitivity'), and the ability of these assets to cope with climate change ('adaptive capacity'). These are combined to produce a series of scores that highlight vulnerabilities. Working with site managers, we have selected the most important assets, estimated their expected response to climate change, and prepared a report highlighting the most endangered facilities. Primary risks include increased energy consumption, decreased water availability, increased forest fire danger, natural resource degradation, and compromised outdoor worker safety in a warmer and more humid climate. Results of this study will aid in driving future management decisions and promoting sustainable practices at SRS.

Glacial-Interglacial Variability of Nd isotopes in the South Atlantic and Southern Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knudson, K. P.; Goldstein, S. L.; Pena, L.; Seguí, M. J.; Kim, J.; Yehudai, M.; Fahey, T.

2017-12-01

Understanding the relationship between meridional overturning circulation and climate is key to understanding the processes and feedbacks underlying future climate changes. North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) represents a major water mass that participates in global oceanic circulation and undergoes substantial reorganization with climate changes on millennial and orbital timescales. Nd isotopes are semi-quantitative water mass tracers that reflect the mixing of end-member water masses, and their values in the Southern Ocean offer the ability to characterize NADW variability over time. Here, we present paleo-circulation records of Nd isotopes measured on fish debris and Fe-Mn encrusted foraminifera from ODP Sites 1090 (42° 54.82'S, 3702 m), and 1094 (53° 10.81'S, 2807 m). Site 1090 is located in the Cape Basin, SE Atlantic, near the lower boundary between NADW and Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW), while 1094 is in the Circumpolar Current. They are ideal locations to monitor changes in the export of NADW to the Southern Ocean. These new results build on previous work (Pena and Goldstein, 2014) to document meridional overturning changes in the Southern Ocean.

What is the benefit of driving a hydrological model with data from a multi-site weather generator compared to data from a simple delta change approach?"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rössler, Ole; Keller, Denise; Fischer, Andreas

2016-04-01

In 2011 the Swiss national consortium C2SM providednew climate change scenarios were released in Switzerland that came with a comprehensive data set of temperature and precipitation changes under climate change conditions for every a large network of meteorological stations, and for aggregated as well as regions in across Switzerland. These climate change signals were generated for three emission scenarios and three different future time-periods and designed to be used asbased on a delta change factors approach. This data set proved to be very successful in Switzerland as many different users, researchers, private companies, and societal users were able to use and interpret the climate data set. Thus, a range of applications that are all based on the same climate data set enabled a comparable view on climate change impact in several disciplines. The main limitation and criticism to this data set was the usage of the delta change approach for downscaling as it comes with severe limitations such as underestimatinges changes in extreme values and neglecting changes in variability and changes in temporal sequencesneglecting changes in variability, be it year-to-year or day-to-day, and changes in temporal sequences . lacks a change in the day-to-day-variability. One way to overcome this the latter limitation is the usage of stochastic weather generators in a downscaling context. Weather generators are known to be one suitable downscaling technique, but A common limitation of most weather generators is the absence of spatial consistency rrelation in the generated daily time-series, resulting in an underestimation of areal means over several stations that are often low-biased. refer to one point scale (single-site) and lacks the spatial representation of weather. The latter A realistic representation of the inter-station correlation in the downscaled time-series This is of high particular importance in some impact studies, especially infor any hydrological impact studiesy. Recently, a multi-site weather generator was developed and tested for downscaling purposes over Switzerland. The weather generator is of type Richardson, that is run with spatially correlated random number streams to ensure spatial consistency. As a downside, multi-site weather generators are much more complex to develop, but they are a very promising alternative downscaling technique. A new multi-site-weather generator was developed for Switzerland in a previous study (Keller et al. 2014). In this study, we tested this new multi-site-weather generator against the "standard" delta change derived data in a hydrological impact assessment study that focused on runoff in the meso-scale catchment of the river Thur catchment. Two hydrological models of different complexity were run with the data sets under present (1980-2009) and under future conditions (2070-2099), assuming the SRES A1B emission2070-2100 scenario conditions. Eight meteorological stations were used to interpolate a meteorological field that served as input to calibrate and validate the two hydrological models against runoff. The downscaling intercomparison was done for We applied 10 GCM-RCM combinations simulations of the ENSEMBLES. In case of the weather generator, that allows for multiple synthetic realizations, we generated for which change factors for each station (delta change approach) were available and generated 25 realizations of multi-site weather. with each climate model projection. Results show that the delta change driven data constitutes only one appropriate representation compared to theof a bandwidth of runoff projections yielded by the multi-site weather generator data. Especially oOn average, differences between both the two approaches are small. Low and high runoff Runoff values to both extremes are however better reproduced with the weather generator driven data set. The stochastic representation of multiday rainfall events are considered as the main reason. Hence, tThere is a clear yet small added value to the delta change approach that in turn performs rather well. Although these small but considerable differences might questioning the need to construct a multi-site-weather generator with a huge effort, the potential and possibilities to further develop the multi-site weather generator is undoubted.

Environmental and physical controls on northern terrestrial methane emissions across permafrost zones

USGS Publications Warehouse

Olefeldt, David; Turetsky, Merritt R.; Crill, Patrick M.; McGuire, A. David

2013-01-01

Methane (CH4) emissions from the northern high-latitude region represent potentially significant biogeochemical feedbacks to the climate system. We compiled a database of growing-season CH4 emissions from terrestrial ecosystems located across permafrost zones, including 303 sites described in 65 studies. Data on environmental and physical variables, including permafrost conditions, were used to assess controls on CH4 emissions. Water table position, soil temperature, and vegetation composition strongly influenced emissions and had interacting effects. Sites with a dense sedge cover had higher emissions than other sites at comparable water table positions, and this was an effect that was more pronounced at low soil temperatures. Sensitivity analysis suggested that CH4 emissions from ecosystems where the water table on average is at or above the soil surface (wet tundra, fen underlain by permafrost, and littoral ecosystems) are more sensitive to variability in soil temperature than drier ecosystems (palsa dry tundra, bog, and fen), whereas the latter ecosystems conversely are relatively more sensitive to changes of the water table position. Sites with near-surface permafrost had lower CH4 fluxes than sites without permafrost at comparable water table positions, a difference that was explained by lower soil temperatures. Neither the active layer depth nor the organic soil layer depth was related to CH4 emissions. Permafrost thaw in lowland regions is often associated with increased soil moisture, higher soil temperatures, and increased sedge cover. In our database, lowland thermokarst sites generally had higher emissions than adjacent sites with intact permafrost, but emissions from thermokarst sites were not statistically higher than emissions from permafrost-free sites with comparable environmental conditions. Overall, these results suggest that future changes to terrestrial high-latitude CH4 emissions will be more proximately related to changes in moisture, soil temperature, and vegetation composition than to increased availability of organic matter following permafrost thaw.

The records of terrestrial and marine biomarkers in South China Sea EXP349 Sites U1432C and U1433A, B: Implications for East Asian monsoon variability and paleoceanographic variations.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

hyun, Sangmin; kim, Songyi

2016-04-01

Marine and terrestrial biomarkers, alkenones and n-alkanes compound, were investigated in sediment taken from the South China Sea (SCS) IODP Sites Exp. U1432C, U1433A and U1433B to evaluate Asian monsoon variability and paleoceanographic variations. Alkenone-based sea surface temperature (SSTalk) from the northern Site (U1432C) ranges from approximately 18.2oC to 28.3oC with an average of 24.4oC (n=65). Estimated SSTalk were slightly higher in the southern Site U1433A than at U1432C. SSTalk in Site U1433A ranges from 24.3oC to 27.4oC with an average 26.1oC (n=32), showing as much as 1.7oC higher SSTs than at U1432C. High concentrations of n-alkanes (nC21-35) are present throughout the Site SC1432C with strong fluctuations in the upper part (average = 496ug/g, n=140). The much higher records at U1433A and U1433B show long-range variations, but the concentration of n-alkanes remains constant below 244mbsf in Site 1433B (less than 200ug/g), suggesting an important change occurred at this horizon, dividing two different environmental domains. These differences in SSTalk and n-alkane concentration between two Sites might not only link with latitudinal location but also the influx of terrestrial biomarker due to the Asian monsoon variability and local oceanographic variations since the last approximately 1.5 Ma. Several indices of Average Chain Length (ACL) and Carbon Preferences Index (ICP) showed large shifts and fluctuations in both Sites. In particular, one of the paleo-plant proxy, Paq, also shows time-dependent large fluctuations in both Sites suggesting long time-scale variations in the flux of terrestrial organic compound as well as paleoclimatic changes in the East Asian area.

Seismic Rate Changes Associated with Seasonal, Annual, and Decadal Changes in the Cryosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sauber-Rosenberg, Jeanne

2012-01-01

Near the Bering Glacier Global Fiducial site in southern Alaska large cryospheric fluctuations occur in a region of upper crustal faulting and folding associated with collision and accretion of the Yakutat terrane. In this study we report constraints on seasonal, annual and decadal cryospheric changes estimated over the last decade from field, aircraft and satellite measurements, and we evaluate the influence of cryospheric changes on the background seismic rate. Multi-year images from the Bering Glacier global fiducial site are available since mid-2003 to constrain changes in extent of the Bering Glacier and to discern feature changes in the glacial surface. Starting around the same time, satellite gravimetric measurements from the Gravity Recovery and Climate experiment (GRACE) commenced. Large spatial-scale mass change calculated from the GRACE 1deg x 1deg mascon solution of Luthcke et al. [2012] indicate a general trend of annual ice mass loss for southern Alaska but with large, variable seasonal mass fluctuations. Since 2007, the station position of a continuous GPS site near Cape Yakataga (Alaska EarthScope PBO site, AB35) has been available as well. In addition to changes in the geodetic position due to tectonic motion, this GPS station shows large seasonal excursions in the detrended vertical and horizontal position components consistent with snow loading in the fall and winter and melt onset/mass decrease in the spring/summer. To better understand the timing of processes responsible for the onset of cryospheric mass loss documented in the GRACE data, we examined changes in the snow cover extent and the onset of melt in the spring. We calculated the surface displacements of the solid Earth and theoretical earthquake failure criteria associated with these annual and seasonal ice and snow changes using layered elastic half-space. Additionally, we compared the seismic rate (M>1.8) from a reference background time period against other time periods with variable ice or tectonic change characteristics to test the significance of seismic rate changes. Our earlier results suggest statistically significant changes in the background seismic rate associated with large seasonal mass changes. INDEX

Comparing measured and modelled soil carbon: which site-specific variables are linked to high stability?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robertson, Andy; Schipanski, Meagan; Ma, Liwang; Ahuja, Lajpat; McNamara, Niall; Smith, Pete; Davies, Christian

2016-04-01

Changes in soil carbon (C) stocks have been studied in depth over the last two decades, as net greenhouse gas (GHG) sinks are highlighted to be a partial solution to the causes of climate change. However, the stability of this soil C is often overlooked when measuring these changes. Ultimately a net sequestration in soils is far less beneficial if labile C is replacing more stable forms. To date there is no accepted framework for measuring soil C stability, and as a result there is considerable uncertainty associated with the simulated impacts of land management and land use change when using process-based systems models. However, a recent effort to equate measurable soil C fractions to model pools has generated data that help to assess the impacts of land management, and can ultimately help to reduce the uncertainty of model predictions. Our research compiles this existing fractionation data along with site metadata to create a simplistic statistical model able to quantify the relative importance of different site-specific conditions. Data was mined from 23 published studies and combined with original data to generate a dataset of 100+ land use change sites across Europe. For sites to be included they required soil C fractions isolated using the Zimmermann et al. (2007) method and specific site metadata (mean annual precipitation, MAP; mean annual temperature, MAT; soil pH; land use; altitude). Of the sites, 75% were used to develop a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) to create coefficients where site parameters can be used to predict influence on the measured soil fraction C stocks. The remaining 25% of sites were used to evaluate uncertainty and validate this empirical model. Further, four of the aforementioned sites were used to simulate soil C dynamics using the RothC, DayCent and RZWQM2 models. A sensitivity analysis (4096 model runs for each variable applying Latin hypercube random sampling techniques) was then used to observe whether these models place as much weight on the same site parameters as the GLMM. Sites were spread across an extensive geographic area and encompassed a wide range of conditions (2% to 44% clay content; 0.9° C to 18° C MAT; 300mm to 1400mm MAP). Topsoil (30 cm) C stocks also varied considerably (29.0 to 115.9 t/ha) but the proportion deemed stable (mean residence time >10 years) was relatively consistent (72 ± 2 %). The GLMM approach suggested that an interaction of soil pH and historic land use explained the largest amount of variation seen in stable fraction C stocks, closely followed by MAT and MAP interactions. For all three systems models, the stable soil C pools were most sensitive to climatic variables and land use. However, RZWQM2 did indicate that soil characteristics (texture, pH) also had an influence on stable C pool dynamics. References 1 - Zimmermann et al., 2007. Measured soil organic matter fractions can be related to pools in the RothC model. European Journal of Soil Science, 58:658-667.

Remote sensing of the Canadian Arctic: Modelling biophysical variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Nanfeng

It is anticipated that Arctic vegetation will respond in a variety of ways to altered temperature and precipitation patterns expected with climate change, including changes in phenology, productivity, biomass, cover and net ecosystem exchange. Remote sensing provides data and data processing methodologies for monitoring and assessing Arctic vegetation over large areas. The goal of this research was to explore the potential of hyperspectral and high spatial resolution multispectral remote sensing data for modelling two important Arctic biophysical variables: Percent Vegetation Cover (PVC) and the fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (fAPAR). A series of field experiments were conducted to collect PVC and fAPAR at three Canadian Arctic sites: (1) Sabine Peninsula, Melville Island, NU; (2) Cape Bounty Arctic Watershed Observatory (CBAWO), Melville Island, NU; and (3) Apex River Watershed (ARW), Baffin Island, NU. Linear relationships between biophysical variables and Vegetation Indices (VIs) were examined at different spatial scales using field spectra (for the Sabine Peninsula site) and high spatial resolution satellite data (for the CBAWO and ARW sites). At the Sabine Peninsula site, hyperspectral VIs exhibited a better performance for modelling PVC than multispectral VIs due to their capacity for sampling fine spectral features. The optimal hyperspectral bands were located at important spectral features observed in Arctic vegetation spectra, including leaf pigment absorption in the red wavelengths and at the red-edge, leaf water absorption in the near infrared, and leaf cellulose and lignin absorption in the shortwave infrared. At the CBAWO and ARW sites, field PVC and fAPAR exhibited strong correlations (R2 > 0.70) with the NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) derived from high-resolution WorldView-2 data. Similarly, high spatial resolution satellite-derived fAPAR was correlated to MODIS fAPAR (R2 = 0.68), with a systematic overestimation of 0.08, which was attributed to PAR absorption by soil that could not be excluded from the fAPAR calculation. This research clearly demonstrates that high spectral and spatial resolution remote sensing VIs can be used to successfully model Arctic biophysical variables. The methods and results presented in this research provided a guide for future studies aiming to model other Arctic biophysical variables through remote sensing data.

Probing Gas Adsorption in Zeolites by Variable-Temperature IR Spectroscopy: An Overview of Current Research.

PubMed

Garrone, Edoardo; Delgado, Montserrat R; Bonelli, Barbara; Arean, Carlos O

2017-09-15

The current state of the art in the application of variable-temperature IR (VTIR) spectroscopy to the study of (i) adsorption sites in zeolites, including dual cation sites; (ii) the structure of adsorption complexes and (iii) gas-solid interaction energy is reviewed. The main focus is placed on the potential use of zeolites for gas separation, purification and transport, but possible extension to the field of heterogeneous catalysis is also envisaged. A critical comparison with classical IR spectroscopy and adsorption calorimetry shows that the main merits of VTIR spectroscopy are (i) its ability to provide simultaneously the spectroscopic signature of the adsorption complex and the standard enthalpy change involved in the adsorption process; and (ii) the enhanced potential of VTIR to be site specific in favorable cases.

On the brink of change: plant responses to climate on the Colorado Plateau

USGS Publications Warehouse

Munson, Seth M.; Belnap, Jayne; Schelz, Charles D.; Moran, Mary; Carolin, Tara W.

2011-01-01

The intensification of aridity due to anthropogenic climate change in the southwestern U.S. is likely to have a large impact on the growth and survival of plant species that may already be vulnerable to water stress. To make accurate predictions of plant responses to climate change, it is essential to determine the long-term dynamics of plant species associated with past climate conditions. Here we show how the plant species and functional types across a wide range of environmental conditions in Colorado Plateau national parks have changed with climate variability over the last twenty years. During this time, regional mean annual temperature increased by 0.18°C per year from 1989–1995, 0.06°C per year from 1995–2003, declined by 0.14°C from 2003–2008, and there was high interannual variability in precipitation. Non-metric multidimensional scaling of plant species at long-term monitoring sites indicated five distinct plant communities. In many of the communities, canopy cover of perennial plants was sensitive to mean annual temperature occurring in the previous year, whereas canopy cover of annual plants responded to cool season precipitation. In the perennial grasslands, there was an overall decline of C3 perennial grasses, no change of C4 perennial grasses, and an increase of shrubs with increasing temperature. In the shrublands, shrubs generally showed no change or slightly increased with increasing temperature. However, certain shrub species declined where soil and physical characteristics of a site limited water availability. In the higher elevation woodlands, Juniperus osteosperma and shrub canopy cover increased with increasing temperature, while Pinus edulis at the highest elevation sites was unresponsive to interannual temperature variability. These results from well-protected national parks highlight the importance of temperature to plant responses in a water-limited region and suggest that projected increases in aridity are likely to promote grass loss and shrub expansion on the Colorado Plateau.

Changes to the structure of Sphingomonas spp. communities associated with biodegradation of the herbicide isoproturon in soil.

PubMed

Shi, Shengjing; Bending, Gary D

2007-04-01

The phenyl-urea herbicide isoproturon is a major contaminant of surface and ground-water in agricultural catchments. Earlier work suggested that within-field spatial variation of isoproturon degradation rate resulted from interactions between catabolizing Sphingomonas spp. and pH. In the current study, changes to the structure of Sphingomonas communities during isoproturon catabolism were investigated using Sphingomonas-specific 16S rRNA gene primers. Growth-linked catabolism at high-pH (>7.5) sites was associated with the appearance of multiple new denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) bands. At low-pH sites, there was no change in DGGE banding at sites in which there was cometabolism, but at sites in which there was growth-linked catabolism, degradation was associated with the appearance of a new band not present at high pH sites. Sequencing of DGGE bands indicated that a strain related to Sphingomonas mali proliferated at low pH sites, while strain Sphingomonas sp. SRS2, a catabolic strain identified in earlier work, together with several further Sphingomonas spp., proliferated at high-pH sites. The data indicate that degradation was associated with complex changes to the structure of Sphingomonas spp. communities, the precise nature of which was spatially variable.

Terrigenous provenance follows climate variability at IODP Site U1474, southwestern Indian Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Babin, D. P.; Hemming, S. R.; Simon, M.; Hall, I. R.; Franzese, A. M.; Goldstein, S. L.; Cai, Y.; Liu, T.; Johns, M. A.; Tejada, L.; LeVay, L.

2017-12-01

International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Expedition 361 `South African Climates' sought records to document the role of the greater Agulhas Current system in global climate variability and southeast African hydroclimate over the past 5 Ma. IODP Site U1474 is located at the headwaters of the fully constituted Agulhas Current. Being close to the southeast African margin, the core location is ideally situated to track variations of terrigenous sediment delivery to the site, which may relate to climatic changes in southern Africa that follow variability in the Agulhas Current heat content. To analyze climate variability, we consider an XRF record for the site in combination with major and trace element chemistry and K-Ar ages from the clay fraction (<2um) plus bulk major element chemistry of 60 shipboard moisture and density samples spanning 4.8 Ma. These data are interpreted with a sea surface temperature (SST) record from Mg/Ca measurements spaced at 40 kyr on the surface dwelling (mixed layer) planktonic foraminifera Globigerinoides ruber. Both long-term trend and precessionally-paced changes in the terrigenous composition are evident. Fe/K ratios from XRF core scanning data are consistent with those previously reported (Simon et al. 2015 Sci. Reports) in a nearby core that spans the last 270 ka. Terrigenous mass accumulation rates are relatively constant at 3 g/cm3/ky from 5-2.5 Ma, then gradually decrease to 2 g/cm3/ky at the top. This declining flux is accompanied by older and more weathered and mafic sources, possibly a result of reduced precipitation in proximal catchments. It is suggested that the relationships between these proxies is explained by a greater relative contribution of sediment supplied from the Limpopo catchment compared to nearby drainage basins such as the Tugela. The SST record shows a cooling trend from the 27 °C average between 4.5-2.5 Ma to 25 °C at 1.0 Ma, followed by high amplitude changes (6 °C changes instead of °3 C) in SST in the 0-1.0 Ma interval, with minimum SST estimates of 21 °C. These changes are consistent with, but could lag behind models predicting aridification in Africa associated with a drop in Indian Ocean temperatures around 3-4 Ma, caused by tectonic changes in the Indonesian Throughflow that shifted its Pacific source waters further north (Cane & Molnar 2001 Science).

Using present-day observations to detect when anthropogenic change forces surface ocean carbonate chemistry outside preindustrial bounds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sutton, Adrienne J.; Sabine, Christopher L.; Feely, Richard A.; Cai, Wei-Jun; Cronin, Meghan F.; McPhaden, Michael J.; Morell, Julio M.; Newton, Jan A.; Noh, Jae-Hoon; Ólafsdóttir, Sólveig R.; Salisbury, Joseph E.; Send, Uwe; Vandemark, Douglas C.; Weller, Robert A.

2016-09-01

One of the major challenges to assessing the impact of ocean acidification on marine life is detecting and interpreting long-term change in the context of natural variability. This study addresses this need through a global synthesis of monthly pH and aragonite saturation state (Ωarag) climatologies for 12 open ocean, coastal, and coral reef locations using 3-hourly moored observations of surface seawater partial pressure of CO2 and pH collected together since as early as 2010. Mooring observations suggest open ocean subtropical and subarctic sites experience present-day surface pH and Ωarag conditions outside the bounds of preindustrial variability throughout most, if not all, of the year. In general, coastal mooring sites experience more natural variability and thus, more overlap with preindustrial conditions; however, present-day Ωarag conditions surpass biologically relevant thresholds associated with ocean acidification impacts on Mytilus californianus (Ωarag < 1.8) and Crassostrea gigas (Ωarag < 2.0) larvae in the California Current Ecosystem (CCE) and Mya arenaria larvae in the Gulf of Maine (Ωarag < 1.6). At the most variable mooring locations in coastal systems of the CCE, subseasonal conditions approached Ωarag = 1. Global and regional models and data syntheses of ship-based observations tended to underestimate seasonal variability compared to mooring observations. Efforts such as this to characterize all patterns of pH and Ωarag variability and change at key locations are fundamental to assessing present-day biological impacts of ocean acidification, further improving experimental design to interrogate organism response under real-world conditions, and improving predictive models and vulnerability assessments seeking to quantify the broader impacts of ocean acidification.

Oligocene-Miocene paleoceanographic changes offshore the Wilkes Land Margin, Antarctica: dinoflagellate cyst and TEX86 analyses of DSDP Site 269

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bijl, Peter; Boterblom, Wilrieke H.; Sangiorgi, Francesca; Hartman, Julian D.; Peterse, Francien

2017-04-01

Although a lot of research has been conducted to characterize the onset of Antarctic glaciation at the Eocene-Oligocene transition, little is known about the subsequent evolution and fluctuations of the size of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS). The discrepancy between the conclusions of Foster and Rohling (2013) (insensitive global cryosphere between 400-650 ppmv CO2) and variations in benthic foraminiferal δ18O records (0.5-1 ‰) illustrate the uncertainty in particularly the East AIS variability during the Oligocene and Miocene. Increasing awareness of the importance of oceanographic conditions on ice sheet melt emphasize the need to directly infer ice sheet volume fluctuations from sedimentary archives close to the Antarctic margin. In this study, dinoflagellate cyst (dinocyst) assemblages, dinocyst-based biostratigraphy and TEX86 from Deep Sea Drilling Project Site 269, offshore the Wilkes Land Margin (WLM), were used to reconstruct the paleoenvironment and paleoceanographic setting during the Oligocene and Miocene. Preliminary results are indicative of open ocean conditions, Southern Ocean fronts and high productivity waters. Furthermore, biomarker species were found, which are useful for stratigraphic dating. Research conducted at the continental rise of the WLM (Site U1356), by Bijl et al. (in prep.), has allowed for the calibration of dinocysts events of the Oligocene-Miocene Southern Ocean to the international time scale. Comparing the results of Site 269 to Site U1356 can thus provide an age constraint for this record. Correlating paleoceanographic changes between sites can provide insights into the variability of the EAIS during the Oligocene and Miocene, and will contribute to improving predictions of future changes in the Antarctic ice sheet.

Assessing background ground water chemistry beneath a new unsewered subdivision

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilcox, J.D.; Bradbury, K.R.; Thomas, C.L.; Bahr, J.M.

2005-01-01

Previous site-specific studies designed to assess the impacts of unsewered subdivisions on ground water quality have relied on upgradient monitoring wells or very limited background data to characterize conditions prior to development. In this study, an extensive monitoring program was designed to document ground water conditions prior to construction of a rural subdivision in south-central Wisconsin. Previous agricultural land use has impacted ground water quality; concentrations of chloride, nitrate-nitrogen, and atrazine ranged from below the level of detection to 296 mg/L, 36 mg/L, and 0.8 ??g/L, respectively, and were highly variable from well to well and through time. Seasonal variations in recharge, surface topography, aquifer heterogeneities, surficial loading patterns, and well casing depth explain observed variations in ground water chemistry. This variability would not have been detected if background conditions were determined from only a few monitoring wells or inferred from wells located upgradient of the subdivision site. This project demonstrates the importance of characterizing both ground water quality and chemical variability prior to land-use change to detect any changes once homes are constructed. Copyright ?? 2005 National Ground Water Association.

Use Trends Indicated by Statistically Calibrated Recreational Sites in the National Forest System

Treesearch

Gary L. Tyre

1971-01-01

Trends in statistically sampled use of developed sites in the National Forest system indicate an average annual increase of 6.0 percent in the period 1966-69. The high variability of the measure precludes its use for projecting expected future use, but it can be important in gauging the credibility of annual use changes at both sampled and unsampled locations.

Insights from a network of long-term measurements of biosphere-atmospheric exchanges of water vapor and carbon dioxide in a water-limited semiarid region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scott, Russell; Biederman, Joel

2017-04-01

Around one-third of Earth's land surface is classified as semiarid, and carbon dioxide exchange in these regions has been shown to be an important regulator of both the trend and interannual variability of the terrestrial carbon sink. Fifteen years ago, when we began making measurements of biosphere-atmospheric exchanges of energy, water vapor, and carbon dioxide using eddy covariance in southern Arizona USA, there was paucity of semiarid observations in flux networks like AmeriFlux and EuroFlux. We started by establishing riparian sites across a woody plant encroachment gradient to quantify the productivity and consumptive plant water use along a iconic and ecologically important desert river. Soon thereafter, we added semiarid grassland, shrubland, and savanna sites that do not have access to groundwater in order to better understand how water limitation and changes in vegetation structure affect ecosystem productivity. Here, we highlight the value of multiyear, multisite flux data for addressing regional to global scale problems associated with groundwater pumping, land cover change, drought, and climate change. For the riparian sites, we find that ecosystem water availability is altered by vegetation structure such that ecosystems with more deeply rooted trees have higher productivity but at a cost of greater groundwater use. For the non-riparian sites, precipitation strongly controls ecosystem water availability and the resultant productivity, but differences in ecosystem structure impact water use efficiency due to the partitioning of evapotranspiration into its component sources. Also, the productivity at sites with more grass, and less woody, plants responds more quickly to precipitation fluctuations including long-term drought conditions. In semiarid regions, variability in water and carbon fluxes is much larger than in more mesic climes. Across our riparian and non-riparian sites, access to more stable groundwater reserves reduces variability in water and carbon fluxes and can decouple ecosystem productivity from precipitation. Finally, we show that the 8% increase in carbon dioxide concentrations over the period of our measurements may be altering ecosystem water use efficiency, a result that is expected and has been reported for northeastern US forests.

Assimilating AmeriFlux Site Data into the Community Land Model with Carbon-Nitrogen Coupling via the Ensemble Kalman Filter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pettijohn, J. C.; Law, B. E.; Williams, M. D.; Stoeckli, R.; Thornton, P. E.; Hudiburg, T. M.; Thomas, C. K.; Martin, J.; Hill, T. C.

2009-12-01

The assimilation of terrestrial carbon, water and nutrient cycle measurements into land surface models of these processes is fundamental to improving our ability to predict how these ecosystems may respond to climate change. A combination of measurements and models, each with their own systematic biases, must be considered when constraining the nonlinear behavior of these coupled dynamics. As such, we use the sequential Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) to assimilate eddy covariance (EC) and other site-level AmeriFlux measurements into the NCAR Community Land Model with Carbon-Nitrogen coupling (CLM-CN v3.5), run in single-column mode at a 30-minute time step, to improve estimates of relatively unconstrained model state variables and parameters. Specifically, we focus on a semi-arid ponderosa pine site (US-ME2) in the Pacific Northwest to identify the mechanisms by which this ecosystem responds to severe late summer drought. Our EnKF analysis includes water, carbon, energy and nitrogen state variables (e.g., 10 volumetric soil moisture levels (0-3.43 m), ponderosa pine and shrub evapotranspiration and net ecosystem exchange of carbon dioxide stocks and flux components, snow depth, etc.) and associated parameters (e.g., PFT-level rooting distribution parameters, maximum subsurface runoff coefficient, soil hydraulic conductivity decay factor, snow aging parameters, maximum canopy conductance, C:N ratios, etc.). The effectiveness of the EnKF in constraining state variables and associated parameters is sensitive to their relative frequencies, in that C-N state variables and parameters with long time constants require similarly long time series in the analysis. We apply the EnKF kernel perturbation routine to disrupt preliminary convergence of covariances, which has been found in recent studies to be a problem more characteristic of low frequency vegetation state variables and parameters than high frequency ones more heavily coupled with highly varying climate (e.g., shallow soil moisture, snow depth). Preliminary results demonstrate that the assimilation of EC and other available AmeriFlux site physical, chemical and biological data significantly helps quantify and reduce CLM-CN model uncertainties and helps to constrain ‘hidden’ states and parameters that are essential in the coupled water, carbon, energy and nutrient dynamics of these sites. Such site-level calibration of CLM-CN is an initial step in identifying model deficiencies and in forecasts of future ecosystem responses to climate change.

Regional meteorological drivers and long term trends of winter-spring nitrate dynamics across watersheds in northeastern North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crossman, Jill; Eimers, M Catherine; Casson, Nora J.; Burns, Douglas A.; Campbell, John L.; Likens, Gene E; Mitchell, Myron J; Nelson, Sarah J.; Shanley, James B.; Watmough, Shaun A.; Webster, Kara L

2016-01-01

This study evaluated the contribution of winter rain-on-snow (ROS) events to annual and seasonal nitrate (N-NO3) export and identified the regional meteorological drivers of inter-annual variability in ROS N-NO3 export (ROS-N) at 9 headwater streams located across Ontario, Canada and the northeastern United States. Although on average only 3.3 % of annual precipitation fell as ROS during winter over the study period, these events contributed a significant proportion of annual and winter N-NO3 export at the majority of sites (average of 12 and 42 %, respectively); with the exception of the most northern catchment, where total winter precipitation was exceptionally low (average 77 mm). In years with a greater magnitude of ROS events, the timing of the peak N-NO3 export period (during spring melt) was redistributed to earlier in the year. Variability in ROS frequency and magnitude amongst sites was high and a generalised linear model demonstrated that this spatial variability could be explained by interactive effects between regional and site-specific drivers. Snowpack coverage was particularly important for explaining the site-specific ROS response. Specifically, ROS events were less common when higher temperatures eliminated snow cover despite increasing the proportion of winter rainfall, whereas ROS event frequency was greater at sites where sufficient snow cover remained. This research suggests that catchment response to changes in N deposition is sensitive to climate change; a vulnerability which appears to vary in intensity throughout the seasonally snow-covered temperate region. Furthermore, the sensitivity of stream N-NO3 export to ROS events and potential shifts (earlier) in the timing of N-NO3 export relative to other nutrients affect downstream nutrient stoichiometry and the community composition of phytoplankton and other algae.

IODP Site 1476: 7.5 Million Year Record of Southeast African Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cantu, K.; Norris, R. D.

2017-12-01

The primary focus of IODP Expedition 361 was Southeast African Climate. Site 1476 in the northern Mozambique Channel yielded a sediment record going back roughly 7.6 million years, a time frame particularly interesting due to its relevance to hominid evolution. Previous paleoclimate studies from the region have included lake sediments and soil carbonate isotopes, which have been interpreted as showing a long-term trend toward increasing aridity. Lake Malawi records from the last 1.3 million years show a change during the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT) from high frequency variability and generally lower lake levels to higher amplitude variability and higher lake levels punctuated by long, severe droughts resulting in extreme and long-lasting low-stands. Site 1476 cores were scanned using X-Ray Fluorescence (XRF), which gives semi-quantitative elemental abundances. Elemental abundance ratios are used as proxies for a variety of climate-related signals, such as changes in weathering rates, the nature of terrigenous material, and grain size. Looking at the site's Fe/Ca, K/Ca, and Rb/Zr ratios, the period of 4.5 to about 1.5 million years ago shows higher terrigenous flux, higher clay flux, and a smaller grain size respectively than most of the previous 3 million years, followed by a steep decline before the MPT, before transitioning to a pattern of high amplitude oscillations post-MPT. These higher amplitude oscillations seem to correspond to Lake Malawi low stands in the post-MPT period, suggesting that the higher flux of terrigenous material to site 1476 is due to higher aridity resulting in lower vegetative cover. This data also point to high climate variability in the last million years, likely contributing to the evolution and ecological adaptability of our species.

Lipid biomarkers in Holocene and glacial sediments from ancient Lake Ohrid (Macedonia, Albania)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holtvoeth, J.; Vogel, H.; Wagner, B.; Wolff, G. A.

2010-11-01

Organic matter preserved in Lake Ohrid sediments originates from aquatic and terrestrial sources. Its variable composition reflects climate-controlled changes in the lake basin's hydrology and related organic matter export, i.e. changes in primary productivity, terrestrial plant matter input and soil erosion. Here, we present first results from lipid biomarker investigations of Lake Ohrid sediments from two near-shore settings: site Lz1120 near the southern shore, with low-lying lands nearby and probably influenced by river discharge, and site Co1202 which is close to the steep eastern slopes. Variable proportions of terrestrial n-alkanoic acids and n-alkanols as well as compositional changes of ω-hydroxy acids document differences in soil organic matter supply between the sites and during different climate stages (glacial, Holocene, 8.2 ka cooling event). Changes in the vegetation cover are suggested by changes in the dominant chain length of terrestrial n-alkanols. Effective microbial degradation of labile organic matter and in situ contribution of organic matter derived from the microbes themselves are both evident in the sediments. We found evidence for anoxic conditions within the photic zone by detecting epicholestanol and tetrahymanol from sulphur-oxidising phototrophic bacteria and bacterivorous ciliates and for the influence of a settled human community from the occurrence of coprostanol, a biomarker for human and animal faeces (pigs, sheep, goats), in an early Holocene sample. This study illustrates the potential of lipid biomarkers for future environmental reconstructions using one of Europe's oldest continental climate archives, Lake Ohrid.

Multidecadal Changes and Interannual Variation in Springtime Phenology of North American Temperate and Boreal Deciduous Forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melaas, Eli K.; Sulla-Menashe, Damien; Friedl, Mark A.

2018-03-01

The timing of leaf emergence is an important diagnostic of climate change impacts on ecosystems. Here we present the first continental-scale analysis of multidecadal changes in the timing of spring onset across North American temperate and boreal forests based on Landsat imagery. Our results show that leaf emergence in Eastern Temperate Forests has consistently trended earlier, with a median change of about 1 week over the 30 year study period. Changes in leaf emergence dates in boreal forests were more heterogeneous, with some sites showing trends toward later dates. Interannual variability in leaf emergence dates was strongly sensitive to springtime accumulated growing degree days across all sites, and geographic patterns of changes in onset dates were highly correlated with changes in regional springtime temperatures. These results provide a refined characterization of recent changes in springtime forest phenology and improve understanding regarding the sensitivity of North American forests to climate change.

Interannual variation of carbon fluxes from three contrasting evergreen forests: the role of forest dynamics and climate.

PubMed

Sierra, Carlos A; Loescher, Henry W; Harmon, Mark E; Richardson, Andrew D; Hollinger, David Y; Perakis, Steven S

2009-10-01

Interannual variation of carbon fluxes can be attributed to a number of biotic and abiotic controls that operate at different spatial and temporal scales. Type and frequency of disturbance, forest dynamics, and climate regimes are important sources of variability. Assessing the variability of carbon fluxes from these specific sources can enhance the interpretation of past and current observations. Being able to separate the variability caused by forest dynamics from that induced by climate will also give us the ability to determine if the current observed carbon fluxes are within an expected range or whether the ecosystem is undergoing unexpected change. Sources of interannual variation in ecosystem carbon fluxes from three evergreen ecosystems, a tropical, a temperate coniferous, and a boreal forest, were explored using the simulation model STANDCARB. We identified key processes that introduced variation in annual fluxes, but their relative importance differed among the ecosystems studied. In the tropical site, intrinsic forest dynamics contributed approximately 30% of the total variation in annual carbon fluxes. In the temperate and boreal sites, where many forest processes occur over longer temporal scales than those at the tropical site, climate controlled more of the variation among annual fluxes. These results suggest that climate-related variability affects the rates of carbon exchange differently among sites. Simulations in which temperature, precipitation, and radiation varied from year to year (based on historical records of climate variation) had less net carbon stores than simulations in which these variables were held constant (based on historical records of monthly average climate), a result caused by the functional relationship between temperature and respiration. This suggests that, under a more variable temperature regime, large respiratory pulses may become more frequent and high enough to cause a reduction in ecosystem carbon stores. Our results also show that the variation of annual carbon fluxes poses an important challenge in our ability to determine whether an ecosystem is a source, a sink, or is neutral in regard to CO2 at longer timescales. In simulations where climate change negatively affected ecosystem carbon stores, there was a 20% chance of committing Type II error, even with 20 years of sequential data.

Spatial and overwinter changes in clam populations of San Pablo Bay, a semiarid estuary with highly variable freshwater inflow

USGS Publications Warehouse

Poulton, V.K.; Lovvorn, J.R.; Takekawa, John Y.

2004-01-01

In many estuaries worldwide, climate trends together with human diversion of fresh water have dramatically impacted the benthos. Such impacts have sometimes been complicated by exotic species, whose invasion and persistence can be mediated by wide variations in freshwater inflow. Monitoring such changes usually involves periodic samples at a few sites; but sampling that does not recognize variation at a range of spatial and seasonal scales may not reveal important benthic trends. San Pablo Bay, in northern San Francisco Bay, has extreme fluctuations in freshwater inflow. This bay also experienced a major benthic change with introduction of the Asian clam (Potamocorbula amurensis) in 1986. This species initially displaced the former community, but later appeared to vary in abundance depending on site and freshwater inflow. To investigate such patterns and provide guidelines for research and monitoring, we took 1746 core samples at six sites around San Pablo Bay from 19 October to 17 December 1999 and from 6 March to 19 April 2000. Most biomass consisted of the clams P. amurensis,Macoma balthica and Mya arenaria. Potamocorbula amurensis dominated the benthos at most sites in the fall and recruited a new cohort during winter, while there was weak recruitment in M. balthica and none in M. arenaria. At most but not all sites, densities of P. amurensis and M. arenaria declined dramatically over winter while M. balthica declined only slightly. The dominant clams had patch diameters >5 m at most but not all sites, and some showed inconsistent patch structure at scales of 100–1400 m. In this semiarid estuary with highly variable freshwater inflow, samples for research and monitoring should include multiple sites and seasons, and samples within sites should be ≥5 m apart to account for between-patch variation. Species abundance in winter 1999–2000 appeared to be affected by high freshwater inflows in 1997–1999, while spatial patterns were probably most affected by post-settlement dispersal and mortality.

Contrasting precipitation seasonality influences evapotranspiration dynamics in water-limited shrublands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Villarreal, Samuel; Vargas, Rodrigo; Yepez, Enrico A.; Acosta, Jose S.; Castro, Angel; Escoto-Rodriguez, Martin; Lopez, Eulogio; Martínez-Osuna, Juan; Rodriguez, Julio C.; Smith, Stephen V.; Vivoni, Enrique R.; Watts, Christopher J.

2016-02-01

Water-limited ecosystems occupy nearly 30% of the Earth, but arguably, the controls on their ecosystem processes remain largely uncertain. We analyzed six site years of eddy covariance measurements of evapotranspiration (ET) from 2008 to 2010 at two water-limited shrublands: one dominated by winter precipitation (WP site) and another dominated by summer precipitation (SP site), but with similar solar radiation patterns in the Northern Hemisphere. We determined how physical forcing factors (i.e., net radiation (Rn), soil water content (SWC), air temperature (Ta), and vapor pressure deficit (VPD)) influence annual and seasonal variability of ET. Mean annual ET at SP site was 455 ± 91 mm yr-1, was mainly influenced by SWC during the dry season, by Rn during the wet season, and was highly sensitive to changes in annual precipitation (P). Mean annual ET at WP site was 363 ± 52 mm yr-1, had less interannual variability, but multiple variables (i.e., SWC, Ta, VPD, and Rn) were needed to explain ET among years and seasons. Wavelet coherence analysis showed that ET at SP site has a consistent temporal coherency with Ta and P, but this was not the case for ET at WP site. Our results support the paradigm that SWC is the main control of ET in water-limited ecosystems when radiation and temperature are not the limiting factors. In contrast, when P and SWC are decoupled from available energy (i.e., radiation and temperature), then ET is controlled by an interaction of multiple variables. Our results bring attention to the need for better understanding how climate and soil dynamics influence ET across these globally distributed ecosystems.

Towards a Stochastic Predictive Understanding of Ecosystem Functioning and Resilience to Environmental Changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pappas, C.

2017-12-01

Terrestrial ecosystem processes respond differently to hydrometeorological variability across timescales, and so does our scientific understanding of the underlying mechanisms. Process-based modeling of ecosystem functioning is therefore challenging, especially when long-term predictions are envisioned. Here we analyze the statistical properties of hydrometeorological and ecosystem variability, i.e., the variability of ecosystem process related to vegetation carbon dynamics, from hourly to decadal timescales. 23 extra-tropical forest sites, covering different climatic zones and vegetation characteristics, are examined. Micrometeorological and reanalysis data of precipitation, air temperature, shortwave radiation and vapor pressure deficit are used to describe hydrometeorological variability. Ecosystem variability is quantified using long-term eddy covariance flux data of hourly net ecosystem exchange of CO2 between land surface and atmosphere, monthly remote sensing vegetation indices, annual tree-ring widths and above-ground biomass increment estimates. We find that across sites and timescales ecosystem variability is confined within a hydrometeorological envelope that describes the range of variability of the available resources, i.e., water and energy. Furthermore, ecosystem variability demonstrates long-term persistence, highlighting ecological memory and slow ecosystem recovery rates after disturbances. We derive an analytical model, combining deterministic harmonics and stochastic processes, that represents major mechanisms and uncertainties and mimics the observed pattern of hydrometeorological and ecosystem variability. This stochastic framework offers a parsimonious and mathematically tractable approach for modelling ecosystem functioning and for understanding its response and resilience to environmental changes. Furthermore, this framework reflects well the observed ecological memory, an inherent property of ecosystem functioning that is currently not captured by simulation results with process-based models. Our analysis offers a perspective for terrestrial ecosystem modelling, combining current process understanding with stochastic methods, and paves the way for new model-data integration opportunities in Earth system sciences.

Establishing the Antarctic Dome C community reference standard site towards consistent measurements from Earth observation satellites

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cao, C.; Uprety, S.; Xiong, J.; Wu, A.; Jing, P.; Smith, D.; Chander, G.; Fox, N.; Ungar, S.

2010-01-01

Establishing satellite measurement consistency by using common desert sites has become increasingly more important not only for climate change detection but also for quantitative retrievals of geophysical variables in satellite applications. Using the Antarctic Dome C site (75°06′S, 123°21′E, elevation 3.2 km) for satellite radiometric calibration and validation (Cal/Val) is of great interest owing to its unique location and characteristics. The site surface is covered with uniformly distributed permanent snow, and the atmospheric effect is small and relatively constant. In this study, the long-term stability and spectral characteristics of this site are evaluated using well-calibrated satellite instruments such as the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS). Preliminary results show that despite a few limitations, the site in general is stable in the long term, the bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) model works well, and the site is most suitable for the Cal/Val of reflective solar bands in the 0.4–1.0 µm range. It was found that for the past decade, the reflectivity change of the site is within 1.35% at 0.64 µm, and interannual variability is within 2%. The site is able to resolve calibration biases between instruments at a level of ~1%. The usefulness of the site is demonstrated by comparing observations from seven satellite instruments involving four space agencies, including OrbView-2–SeaWiFS, Terra–Aqua MODIS, Earth Observing 1 (EO-1) – Hyperion, Meteorological Operational satellite programme (MetOp) – Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), Envisat Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS) – dvanced Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (AATSR), and Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+). Dome C is a promising candidate site for climate quality calibration of satellite radiometers towards more consistent satellite measurements, as part of the framework for climate change detection and data quality assurance for the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS).

The impact of sampling, PCR, and sequencing replication on discerning changes in drinking water bacterial community over diurnal time-scales.

PubMed

Bautista-de Los Santos, Quyen Melina; Schroeder, Joanna L; Blakemore, Oliver; Moses, Jonathan; Haffey, Mark; Sloan, William; Pinto, Ameet J

2016-03-01

High-throughput and deep DNA sequencing, particularly amplicon sequencing, is being increasingly utilized to reveal spatial and temporal dynamics of bacterial communities in drinking water systems. Whilst the sampling and methodological biases associated with PCR and sequencing have been studied in other environments, they have not been quantified for drinking water. These biases are likely to have the greatest effect on the ability to characterize subtle spatio-temporal patterns influenced by process/environmental conditions. In such cases, intra-sample variability may swamp any underlying small, systematic variation. To evaluate this, we undertook a study with replication at multiple levels including sampling sites, sample collection, PCR amplification, and high throughput sequencing of 16S rRNA amplicons. The variability inherent to the PCR amplification and sequencing steps is significant enough to mask differences between bacterial communities from replicate samples. This was largely driven by greater variability in detection of rare bacteria (relative abundance <0.01%) across PCR/sequencing replicates as compared to replicate samples. Despite this, we captured significant changes in bacterial community over diurnal time-scales and find that the extent and pattern of diurnal changes is specific to each sampling location. Further, we find diurnal changes in bacterial community arise due to differences in the presence/absence of the low abundance bacteria and changes in the relative abundance of dominant bacteria. Finally, we show that bacterial community composition is significantly different across sampling sites for time-periods during which there are typically rapid changes in water use. This suggests hydraulic changes (driven by changes in water demand) contribute to shaping the bacterial community in bulk drinking water over diurnal time-scales. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Projecting future precipitation and temperature at sites with diverse climate through multiple statistical downscaling schemes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vallam, P.; Qin, X. S.

2017-10-01

Anthropogenic-driven climate change would affect the global ecosystem and is becoming a world-wide concern. Numerous studies have been undertaken to determine the future trends of meteorological variables at different scales. Despite these studies, there remains significant uncertainty in the prediction of future climates. To examine the uncertainty arising from using different schemes to downscale the meteorological variables for the future horizons, projections from different statistical downscaling schemes were examined. These schemes included statistical downscaling method (SDSM), change factor incorporated with LARS-WG, and bias corrected disaggregation (BCD) method. Global circulation models (GCMs) based on CMIP3 (HadCM3) and CMIP5 (CanESM2) were utilized to perturb the changes in the future climate. Five study sites (i.e., Alice Springs, Edmonton, Frankfurt, Miami, and Singapore) with diverse climatic conditions were chosen for examining the spatial variability of applying various statistical downscaling schemes. The study results indicated that the regions experiencing heavy precipitation intensities were most likely to demonstrate the divergence between the predictions from various statistical downscaling methods. Also, the variance computed in projecting the weather extremes indicated the uncertainty derived from selection of downscaling tools and climate models. This study could help gain an improved understanding about the features of different downscaling approaches and the overall downscaling uncertainty.

Reservoirs override seasonal variability of phytoplankton communities in a regulated Mediterranean river.

PubMed

Tornés, E; Pérez, M C; Durán, C; Sabater, S

2014-03-15

Water hydrology, temperature and transparency, as well as nutrient retention downstream of the reservoirs alter the temporal and spatial distribution patterns of phytoplankton communities in regulated rivers. The seasonal dynamics of phytoplankton communities in the Ebro was analysed in contrasting water flow periods in sections upstream and downstream of three large reservoirs, as well as in an intermediate site. Phytoplankton communities changed in response to seasonal variations in the areas not influenced by the reservoirs, but the phytoplankton distribution downstream of the reservoirs was driven by their particular hydrodynamics. The change in environmental conditions promoted by reservoirs influenced the pattern of replacement between diatoms and green algae of the upstream section. Differences in the phytoplankton community structure, abundance and environmental variables between upstream and downstream sites were maximal during low flow periods. Chlorophytes and dinoflagellates were present during low flow periods upstream of the reservoirs and in the intermediate site. Cocconeis cf. placentula characterized the downstream section, associated to the presence of macrophytes in that section. The present study sheds light on the consequences of river regulation under potential scenarios of climate change, and results could be used to anticipate ecological problems in large regulated rivers under these circumstances. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Temporal change in deep-sea benthic ecosystems: a review of the evidence from recent time-series studies.

PubMed

Glover, A G; Gooday, A J; Bailey, D M; Billett, D S M; Chevaldonné, P; Colaço, A; Copley, J; Cuvelier, D; Desbruyères, D; Kalogeropoulou, V; Klages, M; Lampadariou, N; Lejeusne, C; Mestre, N C; Paterson, G L J; Perez, T; Ruhl, H; Sarrazin, J; Soltwedel, T; Soto, E H; Thatje, S; Tselepides, A; Van Gaever, S; Vanreusel, A

2010-01-01

Societal concerns over the potential impacts of recent global change have prompted renewed interest in the long-term ecological monitoring of large ecosystems. The deep sea is the largest ecosystem on the planet, the least accessible, and perhaps the least understood. Nevertheless, deep-sea data collected over the last few decades are now being synthesised with a view to both measuring global change and predicting the future impacts of further rises in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. For many years, it was assumed by many that the deep sea is a stable habitat, buffered from short-term changes in the atmosphere or upper ocean. However, recent studies suggest that deep-seafloor ecosystems may respond relatively quickly to seasonal, inter-annual and decadal-scale shifts in upper-ocean variables. In this review, we assess the evidence for these long-term (i.e. inter-annual to decadal-scale) changes both in biologically driven, sedimented, deep-sea ecosystems (e.g. abyssal plains) and in chemosynthetic ecosystems that are partially geologically driven, such as hydrothermal vents and cold seeps. We have identified 11 deep-sea sedimented ecosystems for which published analyses of long-term biological data exist. At three of these, we have found evidence for a progressive trend that could be potentially linked to recent climate change, although the evidence is not conclusive. At the other sites, we have concluded that the changes were either not significant, or were stochastically variable without being clearly linked to climate change or climate variability indices. For chemosynthetic ecosystems, we have identified 14 sites for which there are some published long-term data. Data for temporal changes at chemosynthetic ecosystems are scarce, with few sites being subjected to repeated visits. However, the limited evidence from hydrothermal vents suggests that at fast-spreading centres such as the East Pacific Rise, vent communities are impacted on decadal scales by stochastic events such as volcanic eruptions, with associated fauna showing complex patterns of community succession. For the slow-spreading centres such as the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, vent sites appear to be stable over the time periods measured, with no discernable long-term trend. At cold seeps, inferences based on spatial studies in the Gulf of Mexico, and data on organism longevity, suggest that these sites are stable over many hundreds of years. However, at the Haakon Mosby mud volcano, a large, well-studied seep in the Barents Sea, periodic mud slides associated with gas and fluid venting may disrupt benthic communities, leading to successional sequences over time. For chemosynthetic ecosystems of biogenic origin (e.g. whale-falls), it is likely that the longevity of the habitat depends mainly on the size of the carcass and the ecological setting, with large remains persisting as a distinct seafloor habitat for up to 100 years. Studies of shallow-water analogs of deep-sea ecosystems such as marine caves may also yield insights into temporal processes. Although it is obvious from the geological record that past climate change has impacted deep-sea faunas, the evidence that recent climate change or climate variability has altered deep-sea benthic communities is extremely limited. This mainly reflects the lack of remote sensing of this vast seafloor habitat. Current and future advances in deep-ocean benthic science involve new remote observing technologies that combine a high temporal resolution (e.g. cabled observatories) with spatial capabilities (e.g. autonomous vehicles undertaking image surveys of the seabed). Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analysis of shifts in the spatial distribution of vegetation due to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

del Jesus, Manuel; Díez-Sierra, Javier; Rinaldo, Andrea; Rodríguez-Iturbe, Ignacio

2017-04-01

Climate change will modify the statistical regime of most climatological variables, inducing changes on average values and in the natural variability of environmental variables. These environmental variables may be used to explain the spatial distribution of functional types of vegetation in arid and semiarid watersheds through the use of plant optimization theories. Therefore, plant optimization theories may be used to approximate the response of the spatial distribution of vegetation to a changing climate. Predicting changes in these spatial distributions is important to understand how climate change may affect vegetated ecosystems, but it is also important for hydrological engineering applications where climate change effects on water availability are assessed. In this work, Maximum Entropy Production (MEP) is used as the plant optimization theory that describes the spatial distribution of functional types of vegetation. Current climatological conditions are obtained from direct observations from meteorological stations. Climate change effects are evaluated for different temporal horizons and different climate change scenarios using numerical model outputs from the CMIP5. Rainfall estimates are downscaled by means of a stochastic point process used to model rainfall. The study is carried out for the Rio Salado watershed, located within the Sevilleta LTER site, in New Mexico (USA). Results show the expected changes in the spatial distribution of vegetation and allow to evaluate the expected variability of the changes. The updated spatial distributions allow to evaluate the vegetated ecosystem health and its updated resilience. These results can then be used to inform the hydrological modeling part of climate change assessments analyzing water availability in arid and semiarid watersheds.

Sensitivity of Catchment Transit Times to Rainfall Variability Under Present and Future Climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilusz, Daniel C.; Harman, Ciaran J.; Ball, William P.

2017-12-01

Hydrologists have a relatively good understanding of how rainfall variability shapes the catchment hydrograph, a reflection of the celerity of hydraulic head propagation. Much less is known about the influence of rainfall variability on catchment transit times, a reflection of water velocities that control solute transport. This work uses catchment-scale lumped parameter models to decompose the relationship between rainfall variability and an important metric of transit times, the time-varying fraction of young water (<90 days old) in streams (FYW). A coupled rainfall-runoff model and rank StorAge Selection (rSAS) transit time model were calibrated to extensive hydrometric and environmental tracer data from neighboring headwater catchments in Plynlimon, Wales from 1999 to 2008. At both sites, the mean annual FYW increased more than 13 percentage points from the driest to the wettest year. Yearly mean rainfall explained most between-year variation, but certain signatures of rainfall pattern were also associated with higher FYW including: more clustered storms, more negatively skewed storms, and higher covariance between daily rainfall and discharge. We show that these signatures are symptomatic of an "inverse storage effect" that may be common among watersheds. Looking to the future, changes in rainfall due to projected climate change caused an up to 19 percentage point increase in simulated mean winter FYW and similarly large decreases in the mean summer FYW. Thus, climate change could seasonally alter the ages of water in streams at these sites, with concomitant impacts on water quality.

Coralline algal Barium as indicator for 20th century northwestern North Atlantic surface ocean freshwater variability

PubMed Central

Hetzinger, S.; Halfar, J.; Zack, T.; Mecking, J. V.; Kunz, B. E.; Jacob, D. E.; Adey, W. H.

2013-01-01

During the past decades climate and freshwater dynamics in the northwestern North Atlantic have undergone major changes. Large-scale freshening episodes, related to polar freshwater pulses, have had a strong influence on ocean variability in this climatically important region. However, little is known about variability before 1950, mainly due to the lack of long-term high-resolution marine proxy archives. Here we present the first multidecadal-length records of annually resolved Ba/Ca variations from Northwest Atlantic coralline algae. We observe positive relationships between algal Ba/Ca ratios from two Newfoundland sites and salinity observations back to 1950. Both records capture episodical multi-year freshening events during the 20th century. Variability in algal Ba/Ca is sensitive to freshwater-induced changes in upper ocean stratification, which affect the transport of cold, Ba-enriched deep waters onto the shelf (highly stratified equals less Ba/Ca). Algal Ba/Ca ratios therefore may serve as a new resource for reconstructing past surface ocean freshwater changes. PMID:23636135

Coralline algal barium as indicator for 20th century northwestern North Atlantic surface ocean freshwater variability.

PubMed

Hetzinger, S; Halfar, J; Zack, T; Mecking, J V; Kunz, B E; Jacob, D E; Adey, W H

2013-01-01

During the past decades climate and freshwater dynamics in the northwestern North Atlantic have undergone major changes. Large-scale freshening episodes, related to polar freshwater pulses, have had a strong influence on ocean variability in this climatically important region. However, little is known about variability before 1950, mainly due to the lack of long-term high-resolution marine proxy archives. Here we present the first multidecadal-length records of annually resolved Ba/Ca variations from Northwest Atlantic coralline algae. We observe positive relationships between algal Ba/Ca ratios from two Newfoundland sites and salinity observations back to 1950. Both records capture episodical multi-year freshening events during the 20th century. Variability in algal Ba/Ca is sensitive to freshwater-induced changes in upper ocean stratification, which affect the transport of cold, Ba-enriched deep waters onto the shelf (highly stratified equals less Ba/Ca). Algal Ba/Ca ratios therefore may serve as a new resource for reconstructing past surface ocean freshwater changes.

Motor learning processes: an electrophysiologic perspective.

PubMed

Velasques, Bruna; Ferreira, Camila; Teixeira, Silmar Silva; Furtado, Vernon; Mendes, Elizabeth; Basile, Luis; Cagy, Mauricio; Piedade, Roberto; Ribeiro, Pedro

2007-12-01

The goal of the present study was to investigate electrophysiologic, qEEG, changes when individuals were exposed to a motor task. Subjects brain electrical activity was analyzed before and after the typewriting training task. For the neurophysiological variable asymmetry, a paired t-test was performed to compare each moment, pre and post-task, in the beta bands. The findings showed a change for the qEEG variable in each scalp site, F3/F4; C3/C4 and P3/P4. These results suggest an adaptation of pre-frontal, sensory-motor and parietal cortex, as a consequence of the typewriting training.

Measurement of volatile organic chemicals at selected sites in California

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Singh, Hanwant B.; Salas, L.; Viezee, W.; Sitton, B.; Ferek, R.

1992-01-01

Urban air concentrations of 24 selected volatile organic chemicals that may be potentially hazardous to human health and environment were measured during field experiments conducted at two California locations, at Houston, and at Denver. Chemicals measured included chlorofluorocarbons, halomethanes, haloethanes, halopropanes, chloroethylenes, and aromatic hydrocarbons. With emphasis on California sites, data from these studies are analyzed and interpreted with respect to variabilities in ambient air concentrations, diurnal changes, relation to prevailing meteorology, sources and trends. Except in a few instances, mean concentrations are typically between 0 and 5 ppb. Significant variabilities in atmospheric concentrations associated with intense sources and adverse meteorological conditions are shown to exist. In addition to short-term variability, there is evidence of systematic diurnal and seasonal trends. In some instances it is possible to detect declining trends resulting from the effectiveness of control strategies.

Judging a brook by its cover: The relation between ecological condition of a stream and urban land cover in new England

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coles, J.F.; Cuffney, T.F.; McMahon, G.; Rosiu, C.J.

2010-01-01

The US Geological Survey conducted an urban land-use study in the New England Coastal Basins (NECB) area during 2001 to determine how urbanization relates to changes in the ecological condition of streams. Thirty sites were selected that differed in their level of watershed development (low to high). An urban intensity value was calculated for each site from 24 landscape variables. Together, these 30 values reppresented a gradient of urban intensity. Among various biological, chemical, and physical factors surveyed at each site, benthic invertebrate assemblages were sampled from stream riffles and also from multiple habitats along the length of the sampling reach. We use some of the NECB data to derive a four-variable urbanintensity index (NECB-UII), where each variable represents a distinct component of urbanization: increasing human presence, expanding infrastructure, landscape development, and riparian vegetation loss. Using the NECB-UII as a characterization of urbanization, we describe how landscape fragmentation occurs with urbanization and how changes in the invertebrate assemblages, represented by metrics of ecological condition, are related to urbanization. Metrics with a strong linear response included EPT taxa richness, percentage richness of non-insect taxa, and pollution-tolerance values. Additionally, we describe how these relations can help in estimating the expected condition of a stream for its level of urbanization, thereby establishing a baseline for evaluating possible affects from specific point-source stressors.

Spatial variability in growth-increment chronologies of long-lived freshwater mussels: Implications for climate impacts and reconstructions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Black, Bryan A.; Dunham, Jason B.; Blundon, Brett W.; Raggon, Mark F.; Zima, Daniela

2010-01-01

Estimates of historical variability in river ecosystems are often lacking, but long-lived freshwater mussels could provide unique opportunities to understand past conditions in these environments. We applied dendrochronology techniques to quantify historical variability in growth-increment widths in valves (shells) of western pearlshell freshwater mussels (Margaritifera falcata). A total of 3 growth-increment chronologies, spanning 19 to 26 y in length, were developed. Growth was highly synchronous among individuals within each site, and to a lesser extent, chronologies were synchronous among sites. All 3 chronologies negatively related to instrumental records of stream discharge, while correlations with measures of water temperature were consistently positive but weaker. A reconstruction of stream discharge was performed using linear regressions based on a mussel growth chronology and the regional Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). Models based on mussel growth and PDSI yielded similar coefficients of prediction (R2Pred) of 0.73 and 0.77, respectively, for predicting out-ofsample observations. From an ecological perspective, we found that mussel chronologies provided a rich source of information for understanding climate impacts. Responses of mussels to changes in climate and stream ecosystems can be very site- and process-specific, underscoring the complex nature of biotic responses to climate change and the need to understand both regional and local processes in projecting climate impacts on freshwater species.

Toward the modeling of land use change: A spatial analysis using remote sensing and historical data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Honea, R. B.

1976-01-01

It was hypothesized that the chronological observation of land use change could be shown to follow a predictable pattern and these patterns could be correlated with other statistical data to develop transition probabilities suitable for modeling purposes. A literature review and preliminary research, however, indicated a totally stochastic approach was not practical for simulating land use change and thus a more deterministic approach was adopted. The approach used assumes the determinants of the land use conversion process are found in the market place, where land transactions among buyers and sellers occur. Only one side of the market transaction process is studied, however, namely, the purchaser's desires in securing an ideal or suitable site. The problem was to identify the ideal qualities, quantities or attributes desired in an industrial site (or housing development), and to formulate a general algorithmic statement capable of identifying potential development sites. Research procedures involved developing a list of variables previously noted in the literature to be related to site selection and streamlining the list to a set suitable for statistical testing. A sample of 157 industries which have located (or relocated) in the 16-county Knoxville metropolitan region since 1950 was selected for industrial location analysis. Using NASA color infrared photography and Tennessee Valley Authority historical aerial photography, data were collected on the spatial characteristics of each industrial location event. These data were then subjected to factor analysis to determine the interrelations of variables.

NEON Data Products: Supporting the Validation of GCOS Essential Climate Variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petroy, S. B.; Fox, A. M.; Metzger, S.; Thorpe, A.; Meier, C. L.

2014-12-01

The National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) is a continental-scale ecological observation platform designed to collect and disseminate data that contributes to understanding and forecasting the impacts of climate change, land use change, and invasive species on ecology. NEON will collect in-situ and airborne data over 60 sites across the US, including Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico. The NEON Biomass, Productivity, and Biogeochemistry protocols currently direct the collection of samples from distributed, gradient, and tower plots at each site, with sampling occurring either multiple times during the growing season, annually, or on three- or five-year centers (e.g. for coarse woody debris). These data are processed into a series of field-derived data products (e.g. Biogeochemistry, LAI, above ground Biomass, etc.), and when combined with the NEON airborne hyperspectral and LiDAR imagery, are used support validation efforts of algorithms for deriving vegetation characteristics from the airborne data. Sites are further characterized using airborne data combined with in-situ tower measurements, to create additional data products of interest to the GCOS community, such as Albedo and fPAR. Presented here are a summary of tower/field/airborne sampling and observation protocols and examples of provisional datasets collected at NEON sites that may be used to support the ongoing validation of GCOS Essential Climate Variables.

The influence of land cover on surface energy partitioning and evaporative fraction regimes in the U.S. Southern Great Plains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bagley, Justin E.; Kueppers, Lara M.; Billesbach, Dave P.; Williams, Ian N.; Biraud, Sébastien C.; Torn, Margaret S.

2017-06-01

Land-atmosphere interactions are important to climate prediction, but the underlying effects of surface forcing of the atmosphere are not well understood. In the U.S. Southern Great Plains, grassland/pasture and winter wheat are the dominant land covers but have distinct growing periods that may differently influence land-atmosphere coupling during spring and summer. Variables that influence surface flux partitioning can change seasonally, depending on the state of local vegetation. Here we use surface observations from multiple sites in the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains Climate Research Facility and statistical modeling at a paired grassland/agricultural site within this facility to quantify land cover influence on surface energy balance and variables controlling evaporative fraction (latent heat flux normalized by the sum of sensible and latent heat fluxes). We demonstrate that the radiative balance and evaporative fraction are closely related to green leaf area at both winter wheat and grassland/pasture sites and that the early summer harvest of winter wheat abruptly shifts the relationship between evaporative fraction and surface state variables. Prior to harvest, evaporative fraction of winter wheat is strongly influenced by leaf area and soil-atmosphere temperature differences. After harvest, variations in soil moisture have a stronger effect on evaporative fraction. This is in contrast with grassland/pasture sites, where variation in green leaf area has a large influence on evaporative fraction throughout spring and summer, and changes in soil-atmosphere temperature difference and soil moisture are of relatively minor importance.

Capturing subregional variability in regional-scale climate change vulnerability assessments of natural resources.

PubMed

Buotte, Polly C; Peterson, David L; McKelvey, Kevin S; Hicke, Jeffrey A

2016-03-15

Natural resource vulnerability to climate change can depend on the climatology and ecological conditions at a particular site. Here we present a conceptual framework for incorporating spatial variability in natural resource vulnerability to climate change in a regional-scale assessment. The framework was implemented in the first regional-scale vulnerability assessment conducted by the US Forest Service. During this assessment, five subregional workshops were held to capture variability in vulnerability and to develop adaptation tactics. At each workshop, participants answered a questionnaire to: 1) identify species, resources, or other information missing from the regional assessment, and 2) describe subregional vulnerability to climate change. Workshop participants divided into six resource groups; here we focus on wildlife resources. Participants identified information missing from the regional assessment and multiple instances of subregional variability in climate change vulnerability. We provide recommendations for improving the process of capturing subregional variability in a regional vulnerability assessment. We propose a revised conceptual framework structured around pathways of climate influence, each with separate rankings for exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. These revisions allow for a quantitative ranking of species, pathways, exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity across subregions. Rankings can be used to direct the development and implementation of future regional research and monitoring programs. The revised conceptual framework is equally applicable as a stand-alone model for assessing climate change vulnerability and as a nested model within a regional assessment for capturing subregional variability in vulnerability. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sources of variability in childhood obesity indicators and related behaviors.

PubMed

Katzmarzyk, P T; Broyles, S T; Chaput, J-P; Fogelholm, M; Hu, G; Lambert, E V; Maher, C; Maia, J; Olds, T; Onywera, V; Sarmiento, O L; Standage, M; Tremblay, M S; Tudor-Locke, C

2018-01-01

The purpose of this study was to describe sources of variability in obesity-related variables in 6022 children aged 9-11 years from 12 countries. The study design involved recruitment of students, nested within schools, which were nested within study sites. Height, weight and waist circumference (WC) were measured and body mass index (BMI) was calculated; sleep duration and total and in-school moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) and sedentary time were measured by accelerometry; and diet scores were obtained by questionnaire. Variance in most variables was largely explained at the student level: BMI (91.9%), WC (93.5%), sleep (75.3%), MVPA (72.5%), sedentary time (76.9%), healthy diet score (88.3%), unhealthy diet score (66.2%), with the exception of in-school MVPA (53.8%) and in-school sedentary time (25.1%). Variance explained at the school level ranged from 3.3% for BMI to 29.8% for in-school MVPA, and variance explained at the site level ranged from 3.2% for WC to 54.2% for in-school sedentary time. In general, more variance was explained at the school and site levels for behaviors than for anthropometric traits. Given the variance in obesity-related behaviors in primary school children explained at school and site levels, interventions that target policy and environmental changes may enhance obesity intervention efforts.

Monitoring of coastal coral reefs near Dahab (Gulf of Aqaba, Red Sea) indicates local eutrophication as potential cause for change in benthic communities.

PubMed

Naumann, Malik S; Bednarz, Vanessa N; Ferse, Sebastian C A; Niggl, Wolfgang; Wild, Christian

2015-02-01

Coral reef ecosystems fringing the coastline of Dahab (South Sinai, Egypt) have experienced increasing anthropogenic disturbance as an emergent international tourism destination. Previous reports covering tourism-related impacts on coastal environments, particularly mechanical damage and destructive fishing, have highlighted the vital necessity for regular ecosystem monitoring of coral reefs near Dahab. However, a continuous scientific monitoring programme of permanent survey sites has not been established to date. Thus, this study conducted in situ monitoring surveys to investigate spatio-temporal variability of benthic reef communities and selected reef-associated herbivores along with reef health indicator organisms by revisiting three of the locally most frequented dive sites during expeditions in March 2010, September 2011 and February 2013. In addition, inorganic nutrient concentrations in reef-surrounding waters were determined to evaluate bottom-up effects of key environmental parameters on benthic reef community shifts in relation to grazer-induced top-down control. Findings revealed that from 2010 to 2013, live hard coral cover declined significantly by 12 % at the current-sheltered site Three Pools (TP), while showing negative trends for the Blue Hole (BH) and Lighthouse (LH) sites. Hard coral cover decline was significantly and highly correlated to a substantial increase in turf algae cover (up to 57 % at TP) at all sites, replacing hard corals as dominant benthic space occupiers in 2013. These changes were correlated to ambient phosphate and ammonium concentrations that exhibited highest values (0.64 ± 0.07 μmol PO4 (3-) l(-1), 1.05 ± 0.07 μmol NH4 (+) l(-1)) at the degraded site TP. While macroalgae appeared to respond to both bottom-up and top-down factors, change in turf algae was consistent with expected indications for bottom-up control. Temporal variability measured in herbivorous reef fish stocks reflected seasonal impacts by local fisheries, with concomitant changes in macroalgal cover. These findings represent the first record of rapid, localised change in benthic reef communities near Dahab, consistent with indications for bottom-up controlled early-stage phase shifts, underlining the necessity for efficient regional wastewater management for coastal facilities.

Multiproxy reconstruction of tropical Pacific Holocene temperature gradients and water column structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arbuszewski, J. A.; Oppo, D.; Huang, K.; Dubois, N.; Galy, V.; Mohtadi, M.; Herbert, T.; Rosenthal, Y.; Linsley, B. K.

2012-12-01

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most prominent mode of tropical Pacific climate variability and has the potential to significantly impact the climate of the Indo-Pacific region and globally1. In the past, the mean state of the Pacific Ocean has, at times, resembled El Niño or La Niña conditions2. Although the dynamical relationships responsible for these changes have been studied through paleoproxy reconstructions and climate modeling, many questions remain. Recent paleoproxy based studies of tropical Pacific hydrology and surface temperature variability have hypothesized that observed climatological changes over the Holocene are directly linked to ENSO and/or mean state variability, complementing studies that dynamically relate centennial scale ENSO variability to mean state changes3-8. These studies have suggested that mid Holocene ENSO variability was low and the mean state was more "La Niña" like3-6. In the late Holocene, paleoproxy data has been interpreted as indicating an increase in ENSO variability with a more moderate mean ocean state3-6. However, alternative explanations could exist. Here, we test the hypothesis that observed climatological changes in the eastern tropical Pacific are related to mean state or ENSO variability during the Holocene. We focus our study on two sets of cores from the equatorial Pacific, with one located in the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (BJ803-119 GGC, 117MC, sedimentation rates ~29 cm/kyr) and the other just off the Galapagos in the heart of the Eastern Cold Tongue (KNR195-5 43 GGC, 42MC, sedimentation rates ~20cm/kyr). The western site lies in the region predicted by models to show the greatest variations in temperature and water column structure in response to mean state changes, while the eastern site lies in the area most prone to changes due to ENSO variability7. Together, these sites allow us the best chance to robustly reconstruct ENSO and mean state related changes. We use a multiproxy approach and consider records from organic (sterol abundances) and inorganic proxies (Mg/Ca and δ18O of 3 planktonic foraminiferal species, % G. bulloides) to reconstruct zonal tropical Pacific (sub)surface temperature and stratification gradients over the Holocene. A benefit of using this approach is that it enables us to combine the strengths of each individual proxy to derive more robust records. We will compare our records with published paleoproxy and model studies in the Pacific and Indo-Pacific regions. Armed with this information, we aim to better understand mean state changes in the tropical Pacific over the Holocene. 1 Ropelewski, C. F. & Halpert, M. S. Monthly Weather Review 115, 1606-1626 (1987). 2 Collins, M. et al. Nature Geoscience 3, doi: 10.1038/NGEO1868 (2010). 3 Koutavas, A., Lynch-Steiglitz, J., Marchitto, T. & Sachs, J. Science 297, 226-230 (2002). 4 Moy, C. M., Seltzer, G. O., Rodbell, D. T. & Anderson, D. M. Nature 420, 162-165 (2002). 5 Conroy, J. L., Overpeck, J. T., Cole, J. E., Shanahan, T. M. & Steinitz-Kannan, M. Quaternary Science Reviews 27, 1166-1180 (2008). 6 Makou, M. C., Eglinton, T. I., Oppo, D. W. & Hughen, K. A. Geology 38, 43-46 (2010). 7 Karnauskas, K., Smerdon, J., Seager, R. & Gonzalez-Rouco, J. Journal of Climate, doi: 10.1178/JCLI-D-1111-00421.00421 (2012 (in press)). 8 Clement, A., Seager, R. & Cane, M. Paleoceanography 14, 441-456 (2000).

Mid-latitude shrub steppe plant communities: Climate change consequences for soil water resources

USGS Publications Warehouse

Palmquist, Kyle A.; Schlaepfer, Daniel R.; Bradford, John B.; Lauenroth, Willliam K.

2016-01-01

In the coming century, climate change is projected to impact precipitation and temperature regimes worldwide, with especially large effects in drylands. We use big sagebrush ecosystems as a model dryland ecosystem to explore the impacts of altered climate on ecohydrology and the implications of those changes for big sagebrush plant communities using output from 10 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) for two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). We ask: 1) What is the magnitude of variability in future temperature and precipitation regimes among GCMs and RCPs for big sagebrush ecosystems and 2) How will altered climate and uncertainty in climate forecasts influence key aspects of big sagebrush water balance? We explored these questions across 1980-2010, 2030-2060, and 2070-2100 to determine how changes in water balance might develop through the 21st century. We assessed ecohydrological variables at 898 sagebrush sites across the western US using a process-based soil water model, SOILWAT to model all components of daily water balance using site-specific vegetation parameters and site-specific soil properties for multiple soil layers. Our modeling approach allowed for changes in vegetation based on climate. Temperature increased across all GCMs and RCPs, while changes in precipitation were more variable across GCMs. Winter and spring precipitation was predicted to increase in the future (7% by 2030-2060, 12% by 2070-2100), resulting in slight increases in soil water potential (SWP) in winter. Despite wetter winter soil conditions, SWP decreased in late spring and summer due to increased evapotranspiration (6% by 2030-2060, 10% by 2070-2100) and groundwater recharge (26% and 30% increase by 2030-2060 and 2070-2100). Thus, despite increased precipitation in the cold season, soils may dry out earlier in the year, resulting in potentially longer drier summer conditions. If winter precipitation cannot offset drier summer conditions in the future, we expect big sagebrush regeneration and survival will be negatively impacted, potentially resulting in shifts in the relative abundance of big sagebrush plant functional groups. Our results also highlight the importance of assessing multiple GCMs to understand the range of climate change outcomes on ecohydrology, which was contingent on the GCM chosen.

A multi-scale comparison of trait linkages to environmental and spatial variables in fish communities across a large freshwater lake.

PubMed

Strecker, Angela L; Casselman, John M; Fortin, Marie-Josée; Jackson, Donald A; Ridgway, Mark S; Abrams, Peter A; Shuter, Brian J

2011-07-01

Species present in communities are affected by the prevailing environmental conditions, and the traits that these species display may be sensitive indicators of community responses to environmental change. However, interpretation of community responses may be confounded by environmental variation at different spatial scales. Using a hierarchical approach, we assessed the spatial and temporal variation of traits in coastal fish communities in Lake Huron over a 5-year time period (2001-2005) in response to biotic and abiotic environmental factors. The association of environmental and spatial variables with trophic, life-history, and thermal traits at two spatial scales (regional basin-scale, local site-scale) was quantified using multivariate statistics and variation partitioning. We defined these two scales (regional, local) on which to measure variation and then applied this measurement framework identically in all 5 study years. With this framework, we found that there was no change in the spatial scales of fish community traits over the course of the study, although there were small inter-annual shifts in the importance of regional basin- and local site-scale variables in determining community trait composition (e.g., life-history, trophic, and thermal). The overriding effects of regional-scale variables may be related to inter-annual variation in average summer temperature. Additionally, drivers of fish community traits were highly variable among study years, with some years dominated by environmental variation and others dominated by spatially structured variation. The influence of spatial factors on trait composition was dynamic, which suggests that spatial patterns in fish communities over large landscapes are transient. Air temperature and vegetation were significant variables in most years, underscoring the importance of future climate change and shoreline development as drivers of fish community structure. Overall, a trait-based hierarchical framework may be a useful conservation tool, as it highlights the multi-scaled interactive effect of variables over a large landscape.

Climate-growth relationships for yellow-poplar across structural and site quality gradients in the southern Appalachian Mountains

Treesearch

Tara L. Keyser; Peter M. Brown

2014-01-01

Forecasted changes in climate across the southeastern US include an increase in temperature along with more variable precipitation patterns, including an increase in the severity and frequency of drought events. As such, the management of forests for increased resistance or resilience to the direct and indirect effects of climate change, including decreased tree- and...

Addressing climate change in the Forest Vegetation Simulator to assess impacts on landscape forest dynamics

Treesearch

Nicholas L. Crookston; Gerald E. Rehfeldt; Gary E. Dixon; Aaron R. Weiskittel

2010-01-01

To simulate stand-level impacts of climate change, predictors in the widely used Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) were adjusted to account for expected climate effects. This was accomplished by: (1) adding functions that link mortality and regeneration of species to climate variables expressing climatic suitability, (2) constructing a function linking site index to...

Addressing climate change in the forest vegetation simulator to assess impacts on landscape forest dynamics

Treesearch

Nicholas L. Crookston; Gerald E. Rehfeldt; Gary E. Dixon; Aaron R. Weiskittel

2010-01-01

To simulate stand-level impacts of climate change, predictors in the widely used Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) were adjusted to account for expected climate effects. This was accomplished by: (1) adding functions that link mortality and regeneration of species to climate variables expressing climatic suitability, (2) constructing a function linking site index to...

Using environmental and site-specific variables to model current and potential distribution of red spruce forest habitat in West Virginia

Treesearch

Nathan Beane; James Rentch

2010-01-01

With the extensive loss of presettlement habitat for red spruce, this species is a high priority for restoration in West Virginia. The advent of climate change caused by human activity and the uncertainty of future environmental changes has also raised interests in the protection and restoration of red spruce ecosystems.

Vulnerability of drained and rewetted organic soils to climate change impacts and associated adaptation options

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Renou-Wilson, Florence; Müller, Christoph; Wilson, David

2016-04-01

With 20% of the land covered with peat soils, Ireland needs to develop a deeper understanding among stakeholders of the potential vulnerability of peatlands and organic soils to climate change (both gradual and extreme events) in the context of current land use changes. The fate of carbon in organic soils is critical for predicting future greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere. While keeping carbon stock in organic soils (for example by rewetting drained sites) can be an effective mitigation measures to reduce CO2 emissions, adaptation options are also required to ensure their 'resilience'. Rewetting of drained organic soils has been initiated at several sites across the country with the aim to (i) reduce net GHG emissions at the source and/or (ii) create suitable conditions for carbon sequestration in active peatland habitats. We present here two sites: an industrial cutaway peatland and an extensive grassland over organic soil, where long-term (> 4 years) environmental and GHG flux (chamber) datasets in both drained and rewetted areas have provided information on the impact of annual weather variability on net ecosystem exchange (NEE). Statistical response functions estimated for gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (Reco) were used to reconstruct annual CO2 balances using site-specific models driven by soil temperature, solar radiation, soil water table levels and leaf area index. The modification of some of the model parameters to fit predicted future climate scenarios for the region allowed potential changes in modelled NEE to be assessed. Both sites were, on average, an annual source of CO2 when drained (138 - 232 g C m-2 yr-1) and a sink when rewetted (ranging from -40 g C m-2 yr-1 in the ungrazed rewetted grassland to a maximum of -260 g C m-2 yr-1 in the rewetted cutaway). At both sites, soil temperatures and water table levels varied significantly between all years. Average NEE at each site displayed a very large standard deviation over the years suggesting a strong influence of external factors (weather variability) and vegetation change in some cases. Such wide variation in annual NEE values is not encountered in their natural counterparts within the same region. Under simulated moderate scenarios of (i) increased soil temperature (1° C) and (ii) deeper WT (-10cm) (both seasonal and/or annual), the rewetted areas always displayed a larger change (increase) in annual NEE compared to the drained areas. Furthermore, all rewetted sites became CO2 sources when both parameters were altered simultaneously over 4 years. Although positive feedbacks from vegetation may occur following such environmental changes, it is expected that the rewetted peatland areas will remain at risk under even moderate levels of climate change and may therefore require further intervention.

Pronounced centennial-scale Atlantic Ocean climate variability correlated with Western Hemisphere hydroclimate.

PubMed

Thirumalai, Kaustubh; Quinn, Terrence M; Okumura, Yuko; Richey, Julie N; Partin, Judson W; Poore, Richard Z; Moreno-Chamarro, Eduardo

2018-01-26

Surface-ocean circulation in the northern Atlantic Ocean influences Northern Hemisphere climate. Century-scale circulation variability in the Atlantic Ocean, however, is poorly constrained due to insufficiently-resolved paleoceanographic records. Here we present a replicated reconstruction of sea-surface temperature and salinity from a site sensitive to North Atlantic circulation in the Gulf of Mexico which reveals pronounced centennial-scale variability over the late Holocene. We find significant correlations on these timescales between salinity changes in the Atlantic, a diagnostic parameter of circulation, and widespread precipitation anomalies using three approaches: multiproxy synthesis, observational datasets, and a transient simulation. Our results demonstrate links between centennial changes in northern Atlantic surface-circulation and hydroclimate changes in the adjacent continents over the late Holocene. Notably, our findings reveal that weakened surface-circulation in the Atlantic Ocean was concomitant with well-documented rainfall anomalies in the Western Hemisphere during the Little Ice Age.

Pronounced centennial-scale Atlantic Ocean climate variability correlated with Western Hemisphere hydroclimate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thirumalai, Kaustubh; Quinn, Terrence M.; Okumura, Yuko; Richey, Julie; Partin, Judson W.; Poore, Richard Z.; Moreno-Chamarro, Eduardo

2018-01-01

Surface-ocean circulation in the northern Atlantic Ocean influences Northern Hemisphere climate. Century-scale circulation variability in the Atlantic Ocean, however, is poorly constrained due to insufficiently-resolved paleoceanographic records. Here we present a replicated reconstruction of sea-surface temperature and salinity from a site sensitive to North Atlantic circulation in the Gulf of Mexico which reveals pronounced centennial-scale variability over the late Holocene. We find significant correlations on these timescales between salinity changes in the Atlantic, a diagnostic parameter of circulation, and widespread precipitation anomalies using three approaches: multiproxy synthesis, observational datasets, and a transient simulation. Our results demonstrate links between centennial changes in northern Atlantic surface-circulation and hydroclimate changes in the adjacent continents over the late Holocene. Notably, our findings reveal that weakened surface-circulation in the Atlantic Ocean was concomitant with well-documented rainfall anomalies in the Western Hemisphere during the Little Ice Age.

Mechanistic insights into the effects of climate change on larval cod.

PubMed

Kristiansen, Trond; Stock, Charles; Drinkwater, Kenneth F; Curchitser, Enrique N

2014-05-01

Understanding the biophysical mechanisms that shape variability in fisheries recruitment is critical for estimating the effects of climate change on fisheries. In this study, we used an Earth System Model (ESM) and a mechanistic individual-based model (IBM) for larval fish to analyze how climate change may impact the growth and survival of larval cod in the North Atlantic. We focused our analysis on five regions that span the current geographical range of cod and are known to contain important spawning populations. Under the SRES A2 (high emissions) scenario, the ESM-projected surface ocean temperatures are expected to increase by >1 °C for 3 of the 5 regions, and stratification is expected to increase at all sites between 1950-1999 and 2050-2099. This enhanced stratification is projected to decrease large (>5 μm ESD) phytoplankton productivity and mesozooplankton biomass at all 5 sites. Higher temperatures are projected to increase larval metabolic costs, which combined with decreased food resources will reduce larval weight, increase the probability of larvae dying from starvation and increase larval exposure to visual and invertebrate predators at most sites. If current concentrations of piscivore and invertebrate predators are maintained, larval survival is projected to decrease at all five sites by 2050-2099. In contrast to past observed responses to climate variability in which warm anomalies led to better recruitment in cold-water stocks, our simulations indicated that reduced prey availability under climate change may cause a reduction in larval survival despite higher temperatures in these regions. In the lower prey environment projected under climate change, higher metabolic costs due to higher temperatures outweigh the advantages of higher growth potential, leading to negative effects on northern cod stocks. Our results provide an important first large-scale assessment of the impacts of climate change on larval cod in the North Atlantic. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Spaceborne Potential for Examining Taiga-Tundra Ecotone Form and Vulnerability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Montesano, Paul M.; Sun, Guoqing; Dubayah, Ralph O.; Ranson, K. Jon

2016-01-01

In the taiga-tundra ecotone (TTE), site-dependent forest structure characteristics can influence the subtle and heterogeneous structural changes that occur across the broad circumpolar extent. Such changes may be related to ecotone form, described by the horizontal and vertical patterns of forest structure (e.g., tree cover, density and height) within TTE forest patches, driven by local site conditions, and linked to ecotone dynamics. The unique circumstance of subtle, variable and widespread vegetation change warrants the application of spaceborne data including high-resolution (less than 5m) spaceborne imagery (HRSI) across broad scales for examining TTE form and predicting dynamics. This study analyzes forest structure at the patch-scale in the TTE to provide a means to examine both vertical and horizontal components of ecotone form. We demonstrate the potential of spaceborne data for integrating forest height and density to assess TTE form at the scale of forest patches across the circumpolar biome by (1) mapping forest patches in study sites along the TTE in northern Siberia with a multi-resolution suite of spaceborne data, and (2) examining the uncertainty of forest patch height from this suite of data across sites of primarily diffuse TTE forms. Results demonstrate the opportunities for improving patch-scale spaceborne estimates of forest height, the vertical component of TTE form, with HRSI. The distribution of relative maximum height uncertainty based on prediction intervals is centered at approximately 40%, constraining the use of height for discerning differences in forest patches. We discuss this uncertainty in light of a conceptual model of general ecotone forms, and highlight how the uncertainty of spaceborne estimates of height can contribute to the uncertainty in identifying TTE forms. A focus on reducing the uncertainty of height estimates in forest patches may improve depiction of TTE form, which may help explain variable forest responses in the TTE to climate change and the vulnerability of portions of the TTE to forest structure change. structural changes.

A review of selection-based tests of abiotic surrogates for species representation.

PubMed

Beier, Paul; Sutcliffe, Patricia; Hjort, Jan; Faith, Daniel P; Pressey, Robert L; Albuquerque, Fabio

2015-06-01

Because conservation planners typically lack data on where species occur, environmental surrogates--including geophysical settings and climate types--have been used to prioritize sites within a planning area. We reviewed 622 evaluations of the effectiveness of abiotic surrogates in representing species in 19 study areas. Sites selected using abiotic surrogates represented more species than an equal number of randomly selected sites in 43% of tests (55% for plants) and on average improved on random selection of sites by about 8% (21% for plants). Environmental diversity (ED) (42% median improvement on random selection) and biotically informed clusters showed promising results and merit additional testing. We suggest 4 ways to improve performance of abiotic surrogates. First, analysts should consider a broad spectrum of candidate variables to define surrogates, including rarely used variables related to geographic separation, distance from coast, hydrology, and within-site abiotic diversity. Second, abiotic surrogates should be defined at fine thematic resolution. Third, sites (the landscape units prioritized within a planning area) should be small enough to ensure that surrogates reflect species' environments and to produce prioritizations that match the spatial resolution of conservation decisions. Fourth, if species inventories are available for some planning units, planners should define surrogates based on the abiotic variables that most influence species turnover in the planning area. Although species inventories increase the cost of using abiotic surrogates, a modest number of inventories could provide the data needed to select variables and evaluate surrogates. Additional tests of nonclimate abiotic surrogates are needed to evaluate the utility of conserving nature's stage as a strategy for conservation planning in the face of climate change. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

Investigation on Motorcyclist Riding Behaviour at Curve Entry Using Instrumented Motorcycle

PubMed Central

Yuen, Choon Wah; Karim, Mohamed Rehan; Saifizul, Ahmad

2014-01-01

This paper details the study on the changes in riding behaviour, such as changes in speed as well as the brake force and throttle force applied, when motorcyclists ride over a curve section road using an instrumented motorcycle. In this study, an instrumented motorcycle equipped with various types of sensors, on-board cameras, and data loggers, was developed in order to collect the riding data on the study site. Results from the statistical analysis showed that riding characteristics, such as changes in speed, brake force, and throttle force applied, are influenced by the distance from the curve entry, riding experience, and travel mileage of the riders. A structural equation modeling was used to study the impact of these variables on the change of riding behaviour in curve entry section. Four regression equations are formed to study the relationship between four dependent variables, which are speed, throttle force, front brake force, and rear brake force applied with the independent variables. PMID:24523660

Nest-site selection and nest success of an Arctic-breeding passerine, Smith's Longspur, in a changing climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

McFarland, Heather R.; Kendall, Steve J.; Powell, Abby

2017-01-01

Despite changes in shrub cover and weather patterns associated with climate change in the Arctic, little is known about the breeding requirements of most passerines tied to northern regions. We investigated the nesting biology and nest habitat characteristics of Smith's Longspurs (Calcarius pictus) in 2 study areas in the Brooks Range of Alaska, USA. First, we examined variation in nesting phenology in relation to local temperatures. We then characterized nesting habitat and analyzed nest-site selection for a subset of nests (n = 86) in comparison with paired random points. Finally, we estimated the daily survival rate of 257 nests found in 2007–2013 with respect to both habitat characteristics and weather variables. Nest initiation was delayed in years with snow events, heavy rain, and freezing temperatures early in the breeding season. Nests were typically found in open, low-shrub tundra, and never among tall shrubs (mean shrub height at nests = 26.8 ± 6.7 cm). We observed weak nest-site selection patterns. Considering the similarity between nest sites and paired random points, coupled with the unique social mating system of Smith's Longspurs, we suggest that habitat selection may occur at the neighborhood scale and not at the nest-site scale. The best approximating model explaining nest survival suggested a positive relationship with the numbers of days above 21°C that an individual nest experienced; there was little support for models containing habitat variables. The daily nest survival rate was high (0.972–0.982) compared with that of most passerines in forested or grassland habitats, but similar to that of passerines nesting on tundra. Considering their high nesting success and ability to delay nest initiation during inclement weather, Smith's Longspurs may be resilient to predicted changes in weather regimes on the breeding grounds. Thus, the greatest threat to breeding Smith's Longspurs associated with climate change may be the loss of low-shrub habitat types, which could significantly change the characteristics of breeding areas.

The impact of growing-season length variability on carbon assimilation and evapotranspiration over 88 years in the eastern US deciduous forest

PubMed

White; Running; Thornton

1999-02-01

Recent research suggests that increases in growing-season length (GSL) in mid-northern latitudes may be partially responsible for increased forest growth and carbon sequestration. We used the BIOME-BGC ecosystem model to investigate the impacts of including a dynamically regulated GSL on simulated carbon and water balance over a historical 88-year record (1900-1987) for 12 sites in the eastern USA deciduous broadleaf forest. For individual sites, the predicted GSL regularly varied by more than 15 days. When grouped into three climatic zones, GSL variability was still large and rapid. There is a recent trend in colder, northern sites toward a longer GSL, but not in moderate and warm climates. The results show that, for all sites, prediction of a long GSL versus using the mean GSL increased net ecosystem production (NEP), gross primary production (GPP), and evapotranspiration (ET); conversely a short GSL is predicted to decrease these parameters. On an absolute basis, differences in GPP between the dynamic and mean GSL simulations were larger than the differences in NEP. As a percentage difference, though, NEP was much more sensitive to changes in GSL than were either GPP or ET. On average, a 1-day change in GSL changed NEP by 1.6%, GPP by 0.5%, and ET by 0.2%. Predictions of NEP and GPP in cold climates were more sensitive to changes in GSL than were predictions in warm climates. ET was not similarly sensitive. First, our results strongly agree with field measurements showing a high correlation between NEP and dates of spring growth, and second they suggest that persistent increases in GSL may lead to long-term increases in carbon storage.

Plant hydraulic strategies and their variability at high latitudes: insights from a southern Canadian boreal forest site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pappas, C.; Matheny, A. M.; Maillet, J.; Baltzer, J. L.; Stephens, J.; Barr, A.; Black, T. A.; Sonnentag, O.

2016-12-01

Boreal forests cover about one third of the world's forested area with a large part of the boreal zone located in Canada. These high-latitude ecosystems respond rapidly to environmental changes. Plant water stress and the resulting drought-induced mortality has been recently hypothesised as a major driver of forest changes in western Canada. Although boreal forests often exhibit low floristic complexity, local scale abiotic heterogeneities may lead to highly variable plant functional traits and thus to diverging plant responses to environmental changes. However, detailed measurements of plant hydraulic strategies and their inter- and intra-specific variability are still lacking for these ecosystems. Here, we quantify plant water use and hydraulic strategies of black spruce (Picea mariana) and larch (Larix laricina), that are widespread in the boreal zone, at a long-term monitoring site located in central Saskatchewan (53.99° N, 105.12° W; elevation 628.94 m a.s.l.). The site is characterized by a mature black spruce overstorey that dominates the landscape with few larch individuals. The ground cover consists mainly of mosses with some peat moss and lichens over a rich soil organic layer. Tree-level sap flux density, measured with Granier-style thermal dissipation probes (N=39), and concurrently recorded radial stem dynamics, measured with high frequency dendrometers (N=13), are used to quantify plant hydraulic functioning during the 2016 growing season. Hydrometeorological measurements, including soil moisture and micrometeorological data, are used to describe environmental constraints in plant water use. Tree-level dynamics are then integrated to the landscape and compared with ecosystem-level evapotranspiration measurements from an adjacent eddy-covariance flux tower. This experimental design allows us to quantify the main environmental drivers that shape plant hydraulic strategies in this southern boreal zone and to provide new insights into the inter- and intra-specific variability in plant hydraulic functioning in high-latitude ecosystems.

Geophysical features influence the climate change sensitivity of northern Wisconsin pine and oak forests.

PubMed

Tweiten, Michael A; Calcote, Randy R; Lynch, Elizabeth A; Hotchkiss, Sara C; Schuurman, Gregor W

2015-10-01

Landscape-scale vulnerability assessment from multiple sources, including paleoecological site histories, can inform climate change adaptation. We used an array of lake sediment pollen and charcoal records to determine how soils and landscape factors influenced the variability of forest composition change over the past 2000 years. The forests in this study are located in northwestern Wisconsin on a sandy glacial outwash plain. Soils and local climate vary across the study area. We used the Natural Resource Conservation Service's Soil Survey Geographic soil database and published fire histories to characterize differences in soils and fire history around each lake site. Individual site histories differed in two metrics of past vegetation dynamics: the extent to which white pine (Pinus strobus) increased during the Little Ice Age (LIA) climate period and the volatility in the rate of change between samples at 50-120 yr intervals. Greater increases of white pine during the LIA occurred on sites with less sandy soils (R² = 0.45, P < 0.0163) and on sites with relatively warmer and drier local climate (R² = 0.55, P < 0.0056). Volatility in the rate of change between samples was positively associated with LIA fire frequency (R² = 0.41, P < 0.0256). Over multi-decadal to centennial timescales, forest compositional change and rate-of-change volatility were associated with higher fire frequency. Over longer (multi-centennial) time frames, forest composition change, especially increased white pine, shifted most in sites with more soil moisture. Our results show that responsiveness of forest composition to climate change was influenced by soils, local climate, and fire. The anticipated climatic changes in the next century will not produce the same community dynamics on the same soil types as in the past, but understanding past dynamics and relationships can help us assess how novel factors and combinations of factors in the future may influence various site types. Our results support climate change adaptation efforts to monitor and conserve the landscape's full range of geophysical features.

Landscape models of brook trout abundance and distribution in lotic habitat with field validation

USGS Publications Warehouse

McKenna, James E.; Johnson, James H.

2011-01-01

Brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis are native fish in decline owing to environmental changes. Predictions of their potential distribution and a better understanding of their relationship to habitat conditions would enhance the management and conservation of this valuable species. We used over 7,800 brook trout observations throughout New York State and georeferenced, multiscale landscape condition data to develop four regionally specific artificial neural network models to predict brook trout abundance in rivers and streams. Land cover data provided a general signature of human activity, but other habitat variables were resistant to anthropogenic changes (i.e., changing on a geological time scale). The resulting models predict the potential for any stream to support brook trout. The models were validated by holding 20% of the data out as a test set and by comparison with additional field collections from a variety of habitat types. The models performed well, explaining more than 90% of data variability. Errors were often associated with small spatial displacements of predicted values. When compared with the additional field collections (39 sites), 92% of the predictions were off by only a single class from the field-observed abundances. Among “least-disturbed” field collection sites, all predictions were correct or off by a single abundance class, except for one where brown trout Salmo trutta were present. Other degrading factors were evident at most sites where brook trout were absent or less abundant than predicted. The most important habitat variables included landscape slope, stream and drainage network sizes, water temperature, and extent of forest cover. Predicted brook trout abundances were applied to all New York streams, providing a synoptic map of the distribution of brook trout habitat potential. These fish models set benchmarks of best potential for streams to support brook trout under broad-scale human influences and can assist with planning and identification of protection or rehabilitation sites.

Shifts in leaf litter breakdown along a forest-pasture-urban gradient in Andean streams.

PubMed

Iñiguez-Armijos, Carlos; Rausche, Sirkka; Cueva, Augusta; Sánchez-Rodríguez, Aminael; Espinosa, Carlos; Breuer, Lutz

2016-07-01

Tropical montane ecosystems of the Andes are critically threatened by a rapid land-use change which can potentially affect stream variables, aquatic communities, and ecosystem processes such as leaf litter breakdown. However, these effects have not been sufficiently investigated in the Andean region and at high altitude locations in general. Here, we studied the influence of land use (forest-pasture-urban) on stream physico-chemical variables (e.g., water temperature, nutrient concentration, and pH), aquatic communities (macroinvertebrates and aquatic fungi) and leaf litter breakdown rates in Andean streams (southern Ecuador), and how variation in those stream physico-chemical variables affect macroinvertebrates and fungi related to leaf litter breakdown. We found that pH, water temperature, and nutrient concentration increased along the land-use gradient. Macroinvertebrate communities were significantly different between land uses. Shredder richness and abundance were lower in pasture than forest sites and totally absent in urban sites, and fungal richness and biomass were higher in forest sites than in pasture and urban sites. Leaf litter breakdown rates became slower as riparian land use changed from natural to anthropogenically disturbed conditions and were largely determined by pH, water temperature, phosphate concentration, fungal activity, and single species of leaf-shredding invertebrates. Our findings provide evidence that leaf litter breakdown in Andean streams is sensitive to riparian land-use change, with urban streams being the most affected. In addition, this study highlights the role of fungal biomass and shredder species (Phylloicus; Trichoptera and Anchytarsus; Coleoptera) on leaf litter breakdown in Andean streams and the contribution of aquatic fungi in supporting this ecosystem process when shredders are absent or present low abundance in streams affected by urbanization. Finally, we summarize important implications in terms of managing of native vegetation and riparian buffers to promote ecological integrity and functioning of tropical Andean stream ecosystems.

Experiment, monitoring, and gradient methods used to infer climate change effects on plant communities yield consistent patterns.

PubMed

Elmendorf, Sarah C; Henry, Gregory H R; Hollister, Robert D; Fosaa, Anna Maria; Gould, William A; Hermanutz, Luise; Hofgaard, Annika; Jónsdóttir, Ingibjörg S; Jónsdóttir, Ingibjörg I; Jorgenson, Janet C; Lévesque, Esther; Magnusson, Borgþór; Molau, Ulf; Myers-Smith, Isla H; Oberbauer, Steven F; Rixen, Christian; Tweedie, Craig E; Walker, Marilyn D; Walker, Marilyn

2015-01-13

Inference about future climate change impacts typically relies on one of three approaches: manipulative experiments, historical comparisons (broadly defined to include monitoring the response to ambient climate fluctuations using repeat sampling of plots, dendroecology, and paleoecology techniques), and space-for-time substitutions derived from sampling along environmental gradients. Potential limitations of all three approaches are recognized. Here we address the congruence among these three main approaches by comparing the degree to which tundra plant community composition changes (i) in response to in situ experimental warming, (ii) with interannual variability in summer temperature within sites, and (iii) over spatial gradients in summer temperature. We analyzed changes in plant community composition from repeat sampling (85 plant communities in 28 regions) and experimental warming studies (28 experiments in 14 regions) throughout arctic and alpine North America and Europe. Increases in the relative abundance of species with a warmer thermal niche were observed in response to warmer summer temperatures using all three methods; however, effect sizes were greater over broad-scale spatial gradients relative to either temporal variability in summer temperature within a site or summer temperature increases induced by experimental warming. The effect sizes for change over time within a site and with experimental warming were nearly identical. These results support the view that inferences based on space-for-time substitution overestimate the magnitude of responses to contemporary climate warming, because spatial gradients reflect long-term processes. In contrast, in situ experimental warming and monitoring approaches yield consistent estimates of the magnitude of response of plant communities to climate warming.

Harmonization of multi-site diffusion tensor imaging data.

PubMed

Fortin, Jean-Philippe; Parker, Drew; Tunç, Birkan; Watanabe, Takanori; Elliott, Mark A; Ruparel, Kosha; Roalf, David R; Satterthwaite, Theodore D; Gur, Ruben C; Gur, Raquel E; Schultz, Robert T; Verma, Ragini; Shinohara, Russell T

2017-11-01

Diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) is a well-established magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) technique used for studying microstructural changes in the white matter. As with many other imaging modalities, DTI images suffer from technical between-scanner variation that hinders comparisons of images across imaging sites, scanners and over time. Using fractional anisotropy (FA) and mean diffusivity (MD) maps of 205 healthy participants acquired on two different scanners, we show that the DTI measurements are highly site-specific, highlighting the need of correcting for site effects before performing downstream statistical analyses. We first show evidence that combining DTI data from multiple sites, without harmonization, may be counter-productive and negatively impacts the inference. Then, we propose and compare several harmonization approaches for DTI data, and show that ComBat, a popular batch-effect correction tool used in genomics, performs best at modeling and removing the unwanted inter-site variability in FA and MD maps. Using age as a biological phenotype of interest, we show that ComBat both preserves biological variability and removes the unwanted variation introduced by site. Finally, we assess the different harmonization methods in the presence of different levels of confounding between site and age, in addition to test robustness to small sample size studies. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Five-city economics of a solar hot-water-system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1981-01-01

Report projects energy savings and system costs for five sites using analysis of actual solar energy installation performance in Togus, Maine. Maine system supplies 75 percent of hot water needed for single-family residence; economic payback period is 19 years. Benefits for all sites depend on maintenance or decrease of initial investment required and continuing increase in cost of conventional energy. Report includes analysis weighing potential changes in variables used to evaluate system profitability.

Indian Ocean circulation changes over the Middle Pleistocene Transition.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petrick, B.; Auer, G.; De Vleeschouwer, D.; Christensen, B. A.; Stolfi, C.; Reuning, L.; Martinez-Garcia, A.; Haug, G. H.; Bogus, K.

2017-12-01

The Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT; 1.4 - 0.4 Ma) represents a climatic shift towards climate cycles at a quasi-100-kyr frequency. Although, several high-resolution records covering the MPT from globally distributed archives exist, there is only sparse evidence on changes in heat exchange between the Pacific and Indian Oceans, which represents a crucial part of the global thermohaline circulation (THC). Deciphering the influence of this heat exchange via the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) is an important step in understanding the causes of the MPT. The Leeuwin Current off Western Australia is directly influenced by the ITF and can therefore be used to reconstruct ITF variability during the MPT. Today, the Leeuwin Current is the only southward flowing eastern boundary current in the southern hemisphere. The onset of the current is unknown but is proposed to have occurred 1 Ma and was likely related to significant changes in ITF dynamics during the MPT We present the first continuous reconstruction of changes in the Leeuwin Current during the MPT using data from IODP Expedition 356 Site U1460. The site is located at 29°S in the path of the current. High sedimentation rates ( 30 cm/ka) at Site U1460 provide the opportunity for high-resolution reconstruction of the MPT. We reconstruct paleoenvironmental variability by combining XRF, organic geochemistry, ICP-MS and XRD data with shipboard data, to reconstruct Leeuwin Current and ITF variability. Initial analyses show clear indications that upwelling off Western Australia intensified during the MPT, indicated by increased primary productivity related to increased nutrient levels, from 900-600 ka. Our results also suggest that the west Australian current (WAC) strengthened during this time supplying cool eutrophic waters from the high southern latitutes to the site. This intensification of the WAC may have had major implications for the Indian Ocean current system, but also the THC at large. This seems to be coupled with increased rainfall to western Australia after 600 ka. The data suggests a major reording of local currents during the MPT.

Temporal dynamics of biogeochemical processes at the Norman Landfill site

USGS Publications Warehouse

Arora, Bhavna; Mohanty, Binayak P.; McGuire, Jennifer T.; Cozzarelli, Isabelle M.

2013-01-01

The temporal variability observed in redox sensitive species in groundwater can be attributed to coupled hydrological, geochemical, and microbial processes. These controlling processes are typically nonstationary, and distributed across various time scales. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to investigate biogeochemical data sets from a municipal landfill site to identify the dominant modes of variation and determine the physical controls that become significant at different time scales. Data on hydraulic head, specific conductance, δ2H, chloride, sulfate, nitrate, and nonvolatile dissolved organic carbon were collected between 1998 and 2000 at three wells at the Norman Landfill site in Norman, OK. Wavelet analysis on this geochemical data set indicates that variations in concentrations of reactive and conservative solutes are strongly coupled to hydrologic variability (water table elevation and precipitation) at 8 month scales, and to individual eco-hydrogeologic framework (such as seasonality of vegetation, surface-groundwater dynamics) at 16 month scales. Apart from hydrologic variations, temporal variability in sulfate concentrations can be associated with different sources (FeS cycling, recharge events) and sinks (uptake by vegetation) depending on the well location and proximity to the leachate plume. Results suggest that nitrate concentrations show multiscale behavior across temporal scales for different well locations, and dominant variability in dissolved organic carbon for a closed municipal landfill can be larger than 2 years due to its decomposition and changing content. A conceptual framework that explains the variability in chemical concentrations at different time scales as a function of hydrologic processes, site-specific interactions, and/or coupled biogeochemical effects is also presented.

Ecosystem properties of semiarid savanna grassland in West Africa and its relationship with environmental variability.

PubMed

Tagesson, Torbern; Fensholt, Rasmus; Guiro, Idrissa; Rasmussen, Mads Olander; Huber, Silvia; Mbow, Cheikh; Garcia, Monica; Horion, Stéphanie; Sandholt, Inge; Holm-Rasmussen, Bo; Göttsche, Frank M; Ridler, Marc-Etienne; Olén, Niklas; Lundegard Olsen, Jørgen; Ehammer, Andrea; Madsen, Mathias; Olesen, Folke S; Ardö, Jonas

2015-01-01

The Dahra field site in Senegal, West Africa, was established in 2002 to monitor ecosystem properties of semiarid savanna grassland and their responses to climatic and environmental change. This article describes the environment and the ecosystem properties of the site using a unique set of in situ data. The studied variables include hydroclimatic variables, species composition, albedo, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), hyperspectral characteristics (350-1800 nm), surface reflectance anisotropy, brightness temperature, fraction of absorbed photosynthetic active radiation (FAPAR), biomass, vegetation water content, and land-atmosphere exchanges of carbon (NEE) and energy. The Dahra field site experiences a typical Sahelian climate and is covered by coexisting trees (~3% canopy cover) and grass species, characterizing large parts of the Sahel. This makes the site suitable for investigating relationships between ecosystem properties and hydroclimatic variables for semiarid savanna ecosystems of the region. There were strong interannual, seasonal and diurnal dynamics in NEE, with high values of ~-7.5 g C m(-2)  day(-1) during the peak of the growing season. We found neither browning nor greening NDVI trends from 2002 to 2012. Interannual variation in species composition was strongly related to rainfall distribution. NDVI and FAPAR were strongly related to species composition, especially for years dominated by the species Zornia glochidiata. This influence was not observed in interannual variation in biomass and vegetation productivity, thus challenging dryland productivity models based on remote sensing. Surface reflectance anisotropy (350-1800 nm) at the peak of the growing season varied strongly depending on wavelength and viewing angle thereby having implications for the design of remotely sensed spectral vegetation indices covering different wavelength regions. The presented time series of in situ data have great potential for dryland dynamics studies, global climate change related research and evaluation and parameterization of remote sensing products and dynamic vegetation models. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Flow variations and macroinvertebrate community responses in a small groundwater-dominated stream in south east England

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bendix, J.; Hupp, C.R.

2000-01-01

Changes in the macroinvertebrate community in response to flow variations in the Little Stour River, Kent, UK, were examined over a 6 year period (1992-1997). This period included the final year of the 1988-1992 drought, followed by some of the wettest conditions recorded this century and a second period of drought between 1996 and 1997. Each year, samples were collected from 15 sites during late-summer base-flow conditions. Correspondence analysis identified clear differences between samples from upstream and downstream sites, and between drought and non-drought years. Step-wise multiple regression was used to identify hydrological indicators of community variation. Several different indices were used to describe the macroinvertebrate community, including macroinvertebrate community abundance, number of families and species, and individual species. Site characteristics were fundamental in accounting for variation in the unstandardized macroinvertebrate community. However, when differences between sites were controlled, hydrological conditions were found to play a dominant role in explaining ecological variation. Indices of high discharge (or their absence), 4-7 months prior to sampling (i.e. winter-spring), were found to be the most important variables for describing the late-summer community The results are discussed in relation to the role of flow variability in shaping instream communities and management implications. Copyright ?? 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.Changes in the macroinvertebrate community in response to flow variations in the Little Stour River, Kent, UK, were examined over a 6 year period (1992-1997). This period included the final year of the 1988-1992 drought, followed by some of the wettest conditions recorded this century and a second period of drought between 1996 and 1997. Each year, samples were collected from 15 sites during late-summer base-flow conditions. Correspondence analysis identified clear differences between samples from upstream and downstream sites, and between drought and non-drought years. Step-wise multiple regression was used to identify hydrological indicators of community variation. Several different indices were used to describe the macroinvertebrate community, including macroinvertebrate community abundance, number of families and species, and individual species. Site characteristics were fundamental in accounting for variation in the unstandardized macroinvertebrate community. However, when differences between sites were controlled, hydrological conditions were found to play a dominant role in explaining ecological variation. Indices of high discharge (or their absence), 4-7 months prior to sampling (i.e. winter-spring), were found to be the most important variables for describing the late-summer community. The results are discussed in relation to the role of flow variability in shaping instream communities and management implications.

Using In-Situ Optical Sensors to Understand the Biogeochemistry of Dissolved Organic Matter Across a Stream Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wymore, Adam S.; Potter, Jody; Rodríguez-Cardona, Bianca; McDowell, William H.

2018-04-01

The advent of high-frequency in situ optical sensors provides new opportunities to study the biogeochemistry of dissolved organic matter (DOM) in aquatic ecosystems. We used fDOM (fluorescent dissolved organic matter) to examine the spatial and temporal variability in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) across a heterogeneous stream network that varies in NO3- concentration. Across the ten study streams fDOM explained twice the variability in the concentration of DOC (r2 = 0.82) compared to DON (r2 = 0.39), which suggests that the N-rich fraction of DOM is either more variable in its sources or more bioreactive than the more stable C-rich fraction. Among sites, DON molar fluorescence was approximately 3x more variable than DOC molar fluorescence and was correlated with changes in inorganic N, indicating that DON is both more variable in composition as well as highly responsive to changes in inorganic N. Laboratory results also indicate that the fDOM sensors we used perform as well as the excitation-emission wavelength pair generally referred to as the "tryptophan-like" peak when measured under laboratory conditions. However, since neither the field sensor not the laboratory measurements explained a large percentage of variation in DON concentrations, challenges still remain for monitoring the ambient pool of dissolved organic nitrogen. Sensor networks provide new insights into the potential reactivity of DOM and the variability in DOC and DON biogeochemistry across sites. These insights are needed to build spatially explicit models describing organic matter dynamics and water quality.

The spatial variability of water chemistry and DOC in bog pools: the importance of slope position, diurnal turnover and pool type

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holden, Joseph; Turner, Ed; Baird, Andy; Beadle, Jeannie; Billett, Mike; Brown, Lee; Chapman, Pippa; Dinsmore, Kerry; Dooling, Gemma; Grayson, Richard; Moody, Catherine; Gee, Clare

2017-04-01

We have previously shown that marine influence is an important factor controlling regional variability of pool water chemistry in blanket peatlands. Here we examine within-site controls on pool water chemistry. We surveyed natural and artificial (restoration sites) bog pools at blanket peatland sites in northern Scotland and Sweden. DOC, pH, conductivity, dissolved oxygen, temperature, cations, anions and absorbance spectra from 220-750nm were sampled. We sampled changes over time but also conducted intensive spatial surveys within individual pools and between pools on the same sampling days at individual study sites. Artificial pools had significantly greater DOC concentrations and different spectral absorbance characteristics when compared to natural pools at all sites studied. Within-pool variability in water chemistry tended to be small, even for very large pools ( 400 m2), except where pools had a layer of loose, mobile detritus on their beds. In these instances rapid changes took place between the overlying water column and the mobile sediment layer wherein dissolved oxygen concentrations dropped from values of around 12-10 mg/L to values less than 0.5 mg/L over just 2-3 cm of the depth profile. Such strong contrasts were not observed for pools which had a hard peat floor and which lacked a significant detritus layer. Strong diurnal turnover occurred within the pools on summer days, including within small, shallow pools (e.g. < 30 cm deep, 1 m2 area). For many pools on these summer days there was an evening spike in dissolved oxygen concentrations which originated at the surface and was then cycled downwards as the pool surface waters cooled. Slope location was a significant control on several pool water chemistry variables including pH and DOC concentration with accumulation (higher concentrations) in pools that were located further downslope in both natural and artificial pool systems. These processes have important implications for our interpretation of water chemistry and gas flux data from pool systems, how we design our sampling strategies and how we upscale results.

Water clarity in the Florida Keys, USA, as observed from space (1984-2002)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palandro, D. A.; Hu, C.; Andrefouet, S.; Muller-Karger, F. E.; Hallock, P.

2007-12-01

Landsat TM and ETM+ satellite data were used to derive the diffuse attenuation coefficient (Kd, m-1), a measure of water clarity, for 29 sites throughout the Florida Keys Reef Tract. A total of 28 individual Landsat images between 1984 and 2002 were used, with imagery gathered every two years for spring seasons and every six years for fall seasons. Useful information was obtained by Landsat bands 1 (blue) and 2 (green), except when sites were covered by clouds or showed turbid water. Landsat band 3 (red) provided no consistent data due to the high absorption of red light by water. Because image sampling represented only one or two samples per year on specific days, and because water turbidity may change over short time scales, it was not possible to assess temporal trends at the sites with the Landsat data. Kd values in band 1 were higher in the spring (mean spring = 0.034 m-1, mean fall = 0.031 m-1) and band 2 were higher in the fall (mean spring = 0.056 m-1, mean fall = 0.058 m-1), but the differences were not statistically significant. Spatial variability was high between sites and between regions (Upper, Middle and Lower Keys), with band 1 ranges of 0.019 m-1 - 0.060 m-1 and band 2 ranges of 0.036 m-1 - 0.076 m-1. The highest Kd values were found in the Upper Keys, followed by the Middle Keys and Lower Keys, respectively. This result must be taken in context however, two Middle Keys sites were found to be inconsistent due to high turbidity, obscuring the benthos and altering our assumption of a visible seafloor, which the algorithm is dependent upon. If all Middle Keys data were valid it is likely that this region would have the highest Kd values for both bands. The Landsat-derived Kd values, and inherent variability, may be influenced by the dominant water mass associated with each Florida Keys region, as well as localized oceanic variables. The methodology used here may be applied to other reef areas and used with satellites that offer higher temporal resolution to assess temporal change and variability.

Climate variations of Central Asia on orbital to millennial timescales.

PubMed

Cheng, Hai; Spötl, Christoph; Breitenbach, Sebastian F M; Sinha, Ashish; Wassenburg, Jasper A; Jochum, Klaus Peter; Scholz, Denis; Li, Xianglei; Yi, Liang; Peng, Youbing; Lv, Yanbin; Zhang, Pingzhong; Votintseva, Antonina; Loginov, Vadim; Ning, Youfeng; Kathayat, Gayatri; Edwards, R Lawrence

2016-11-11

The extent to which climate variability in Central Asia is causally linked to large-scale changes in the Asian monsoon on varying timescales remains a longstanding question. Here we present precisely dated high-resolution speleothem oxygen-carbon isotope and trace element records of Central Asia's hydroclimate variability from Tonnel'naya cave, Uzbekistan, and Kesang cave, western China. On orbital timescales, the supra-regional climate variance, inferred from our oxygen isotope records, exhibits a precessional rhythm, punctuated by millennial-scale abrupt climate events, suggesting a close coupling with the Asian monsoon. However, the local hydroclimatic variability at both cave sites, inferred from carbon isotope and trace element records, shows climate variations that are distinctly different from their supra-regional modes. Particularly, hydroclimatic changes in both Tonnel'naya and Kesang areas during the Holocene lag behind the supra-regional climate variability by several thousand years. These observations may reconcile the apparent out-of-phase hydroclimatic variability, inferred from the Holocene lake proxy records, between Westerly Central Asia and Monsoon Asia.

Climate variations of Central Asia on orbital to millennial timescales

PubMed Central

Cheng, Hai; Spötl, Christoph; Breitenbach, Sebastian F. M.; Sinha, Ashish; Wassenburg, Jasper A.; Jochum, Klaus Peter; Scholz, Denis; Li, Xianglei; Yi, Liang; Peng, Youbing; Lv, Yanbin; Zhang, Pingzhong; Votintseva, Antonina; Loginov, Vadim; Ning, Youfeng; Kathayat, Gayatri; Edwards, R. Lawrence

2016-01-01

The extent to which climate variability in Central Asia is causally linked to large-scale changes in the Asian monsoon on varying timescales remains a longstanding question. Here we present precisely dated high-resolution speleothem oxygen-carbon isotope and trace element records of Central Asia’s hydroclimate variability from Tonnel’naya cave, Uzbekistan, and Kesang cave, western China. On orbital timescales, the supra-regional climate variance, inferred from our oxygen isotope records, exhibits a precessional rhythm, punctuated by millennial-scale abrupt climate events, suggesting a close coupling with the Asian monsoon. However, the local hydroclimatic variability at both cave sites, inferred from carbon isotope and trace element records, shows climate variations that are distinctly different from their supra-regional modes. Particularly, hydroclimatic changes in both Tonnel’naya and Kesang areas during the Holocene lag behind the supra-regional climate variability by several thousand years. These observations may reconcile the apparent out-of-phase hydroclimatic variability, inferred from the Holocene lake proxy records, between Westerly Central Asia and Monsoon Asia. PMID:27833133

Regionally heterogeneous paleoenvironmental responses in the West African and South American monsoon systems on glacial to millennial timescales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shanahan, T. M.; Hughen, K. A.; van Mooy, B.; Overpeck, J. T.; Baker, P. A.; Fritz, S.; Peck, J. A.; Scholz, C. A.; King, J. W.

2008-12-01

Although millennial-scale paleoenvironmental changes have been well characterized for high latitude sites, short-term climate variability in the tropics is less well understood. While the Intertropical Convergence Zone may act as an integrator of tropical climate changes, regional factors also play an important role in controlling the tropical response to climate forcing. Understanding these influences, and how they modulate the response to global climate forcing under different mean climate states is thus important for assessing how the tropics may respond to future climate change. Here, we examine new centennial-resolution records of paleoenvironmental change from isotopic and relative abundance data from molecular biomarkers in sediment cores from Lake Bosumtwi and Lake Titicaca. We assess the relative response of the West African and South American monsoon systems to millennial and suborbital-scale climate variability over the last ca. 30,000 years. While there is evidence for synchronous climate variability in the two systems, the dominant paleoenvironmental changes appear largely decoupled, highlighting the importance of regional climatology in controlling the response to climate forcing in tropical regions.

Fish communities and their associations with environmental variables, lower San Joaquin River drainage, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brown, L.R.

2000-01-01

Twenty sites in the lower San Joaquin River drainage, California, were sampled from 1993 to 1995 to characterize fish communities and their associations with measures of water quality and habitat quality. The feasibility of developing an Index of Biotic Integrity was assessed by evaluating four fish community metrics, including percentages of native fish, omnivorous fish, fish intolerant of environmental degradation, and fish with external anomalies. Of the thirty-one taxa of fish captured during the study, only 10 taxa were native to the drainage. Multivariate analyses of percentage data identified four site groups characterized by different groups of species. The distributions of fish species were related to specific conductance, gradient, and mean depth; however, specific conductance acted as a surrogate variable for a large group of correlated variables. Two of the fish community metrics - percentage of introduced fish and percentage of intolerant fish - appeared to be responsive to environmental quality but the responses of the other two metrics - percentage of omnivorous fish and percentage of fish with anomalies - were less direct. The conclusion of the study is that fish communities are responsive to environmental conditions, including conditions associated with human-caused disturbances, particularly agriculture and water development. The results suggest that changes in water management and water quality could result in changes in species distributions. Balancing the costs and benefits of such changes poses a considerable challenge to resource managers.

Assemblages of fishes and their associations with environmental variables, lower San Joaquin River drainage, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brown, Larry R.

1998-01-01

Twenty sites in the lower San Joaquin River drainage, California, were sampled from 1993 to 1995 to characterize fish assemblages and their associations with measures of water quality and habitat quality. In addition, four fish community metrics were assessed, including percentages of native fish, omnivorous fish, fish intolerant of environmental degradation, and fish with external anomalies. Of the 31 taxa of fish captured during the study, only 10 taxa were native to the drainage. Multivariate analyses of percentage data identified four site groups characterized by characterized by different groups of species. The distributions of fish species were related to specific conductance, gradient, and mean depth; however, specific conductance acted as a surrogate variable for a large group of correlated variables. Two of the fish community metrics--percentage of introduced fish and percentage of intolerant fish--appeared to be responsive to environmental quality but the responses of the other two metrics--percentage of omnivorous fish and percentage of fish with anomalies--were less direct. The conclusion of the study is that fish assemblages are responsive to environmental conditions, including conditions associated with human-caused disturbances, particularly agriculture and water development. The results suggest that changes in water management and water quality could result in changes in species distributions. Balancing the costs and benefits of such changes poses a considerable challenge to resource managers. different groups of species.

Skin sites to predict deep-body temperature while wearing firefighters' personal protective equipment during periodical changes in air temperature.

PubMed

Kim, Siyeon; Lee, Joo-Young

2016-04-01

The aim of this study was to investigate stable and valid measurement sites of skin temperatures as a non-invasive variable to predict deep-body temperature while wearing firefighters' personal protective equipment (PPE) during air temperature changes. Eight male firefighters participated in an experiment which consisted of 60-min exercise and 10-min recovery while wearing PPE without self-contained breathing apparatus (7.75 kg in total PPE mass). Air temperature was periodically fluctuated from 29.5 to 35.5 °C with an amplitude of 6 °C. Rectal temperature was chosen as a deep-body temperature, and 12 skin temperatures were recorded. The results showed that the forehead and chest were identified as the most valid sites to predict rectal temperature (R(2) = 0.826 and 0.824, respectively) in an environment with periodically fluctuated air temperatures. This study suggests that particular skin temperatures are valid as a non-invasive variable when predicting rectal temperature of an individual wearing PPE in changing ambient temperatures. Practitioner Summary: This study should offer assistance for developing a more reliable indirect indicating system of individual heat strain for firefighters in real time, which can be used practically as a precaution of firefighters' heat-related illness and utilised along with physiological monitoring.

The Nature of Antarctic Temperature Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Markle, B. R.; Steig, E. J.

2017-12-01

The Antarctic is an important component of global climate. While the Arctic has warmed significantly in the last century, the Antarctic as a whole has shown considerably less variability. There is, however, a pronounced spatial pattern to modern Antarctic temperature change. The high East Antarctic Ice Sheet shows little to no warming over recent decades while West Antarctica and the Peninsula shows some of the largest rates of warming on the globe. Examining past climate variability can help reveal the physical processes governing this spatial pattern of Antarctic temperature change. Modern Antarctic temperature variability is known from satellite and weather station observations. Understanding changes in the past, however, requires paleoclimate-proxies such as ice-core water-isotope records. Here we assess the spatial pattern of Antarctic temperature changes across a range of timescales, from modern decadal changes to millennial and orbital-scale variability. We reconstruct past changes in absolute temperatures from a suite of deep ice core records and an improved isotope-temperature reconstruction method. We use δ18O and deuterium excess records to reconstruct both evaporation source and condensation site temperatures. In contrast to previous studies we use a novel method that accounts for nonlinearities in the water-isotope distillation process. We quantify past temperature changes over the Southern Ocean and Antarctic Continent and the magnitude of polar amplification. We identify patterns of Antarctic temperature change that are common across a wide range of timescales and independent of the source of forcing. We examine the nature of these changes and their relationship to atmospheric thermodynamics.

The impact of extremely low frequency electromagnetic fields on stream periphyton: An eleven-year study

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burton, T.M.; Uzarski, D.G.; Stelzer, R.S.; Eggert, S.L.; Sobczak, W.V.; Mullen, D.M.

2000-01-01

Potential effects of extremely low frequency (ELF) electromagnetic fields on periphyton were studied from 1983 to 1993 using a Before, After, Control and Impact design. The study was conducted at two sites on the Ford River, a fourth-order brown water trout stream in Dickinson County, Michigan. The Reference site received 4.9-6.5 times less exposure to ground electric fields and from 300 to 334 times less exposure to magnetic flux from 1989 to 1993 when the antenna was operational at 76 Hz than did the Antenna site. The objective of the study was to determine if ELF electromagnetic fields had caused changes in structure and/or function of algal communities in the Ford River. Significant differences in chlorophyll a standing crop and daily accumulation rate (a surrogate for primary productivity), and organic matter standing crop and daily accumulation rate were observed between the Reference and Antenna site after the antenna became operational. These four related community function variables all increased at the Antenna site with largest and most consistent increases occurring for chlorophyll measures. Compared to pre-operational data, the increase in chlorophyll at the Antenna site also occurred during a period of low amperage testing in 1986-1988, and did not increase further when the antenna became fully operational in 1989, indicating a low threshold for response. There was no significant differences between the Antenna and Reference sites in community structure variables such as diversity, evenness and the relative abundance of dominant diatoms. Thus, 76 Hz ELF electromagnetic radiation apparently did not change the basic makeup of the diatom community but did increase accumulation rates and standing crops of chlorophyll a and organic matter.

Within-site variability in surveys of wildlife populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Link, William A.; Barker, Richard J.; Sauer, John R.; Droege, Sam

1994-01-01

Most large-scale surveys of animal populations are based on counts of individuals observed during a sampling period, which are used as indexes to the population. The variability in these indexes not only reflects variability in population sizes among sites but also variability due to the inexactness of the counts. Repeated counts at survey sites can be used to document this additional source of variability and, in some applications, to mitigate its effects. We present models for evaluating the proportion of total variability in counts that is attributable to this within-site variability and apply them in the analysis of data from repeated counts on routes from the North American Breeding Bird Survey. We analyzed data on 98 species, obtaining estimates of these percentages, which ranged from 3.5 to 100% with a mean of 36.25%. For at least 14 of the species, more than half of the variation in counts was attributable to within-site sources. Counts for species with lower average counts had a higher percentage of within-site variability. We discuss the relative cost efficiency of replicating sites or initiating new sites for several objectives, concluding that it is frequently better to initiate new sites than to attempt to replicate existing sites.

Nonlinearities, scale-dependence, and individualism of boreal forest trees to climate forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolken, J. M.; Mann, D. H.; Grant, T. A., III; Lloyd, A. H.; Hollingsworth, T. N.

2013-12-01

Our understanding of the climate-growth relationships of trees are complicated by the nonlinearity and variability of these responses through space and time. Furthermore, trees growing at the same site may exhibit opposing growth responses to climate, a phenomenon termed growth divergence. To date the majority of dendrochronological studies in Interior Alaska have involved white spruce growing at treeline, even though black spruce is the most abundant tree species. Although changing climate-growth relationships have been observed in black spruce, there is little known about the multivariate responses of individual trees to temperature and precipitation and whether or not black spruce exhibits growth divergences similar to those documented for white spruce. To evaluate the occurrence of growth divergences in black spruce, we collected cores from trees growing on a steep, north-facing toposequence having a gradient in environmental parameters. Our overall goal was to assess how the climate-growth relationships of black spruce change over space and time. Specifically, we evaluated how topography influences the climate-growth relationships of black spruce and if the growth responses to climate are homogeneous. At the site-level most trees responded negatively to temperature and positively to precipitation, while at the tree-level black spruce exhibited heterogenous growth responses to climate that varied in both space (i.e., between sites) and time (i.e., seasonally and annually). There was a dominant response-type at each site, but there was also considerable variability in the proportion of trees exhibiting each response-type combination. Even in a climatically extreme setting like Alaska's boreal forest, tree responses to climate variability are spatially and temporally complex, as well as highly nonlinear.

Contemporary and historic factors influence differently genetic differentiation and diversity in a tropical palm

PubMed Central

da Silva Carvalho, C; Ribeiro, M C; Côrtes, M C; Galetti, M; Collevatti, R G

2015-01-01

Population genetics theory predicts loss in genetic variability because of drift and inbreeding in isolated plant populations; however, it has been argued that long-distance pollination and seed dispersal may be able to maintain gene flow, even in highly fragmented landscapes. We tested how historical effective population size, historical migration and contemporary landscape structure, such as forest cover, patch isolation and matrix resistance, affect genetic variability and differentiation of seedlings in a tropical palm (Euterpe edulis) in a human-modified rainforest. We sampled 16 sites within five landscapes in the Brazilian Atlantic forest and assessed genetic variability and differentiation using eight microsatellite loci. Using a model selection approach, none of the covariates explained the variation observed in inbreeding coefficients among populations. The variation in genetic diversity among sites was best explained by historical effective population size. Allelic richness was best explained by historical effective population size and matrix resistance, whereas genetic differentiation was explained by matrix resistance. Coalescence analysis revealed high historical migration between sites within landscapes and constant historical population sizes, showing that the genetic differentiation is most likely due to recent changes caused by habitat loss and fragmentation. Overall, recent landscape changes have a greater influence on among-population genetic variation than historical gene flow process. As immediate restoration actions in landscapes with low forest amount, the development of more permeable matrices to allow the movement of pollinators and seed dispersers may be an effective strategy to maintain microevolutionary processes. PMID:25873150

Interannual variation of carbon fluxes from three contrasting evergreen forests: The role of forest dynamics and climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sierra, C.A.; Loescher, H.W.; Harmon, M.E.; Richardson, A.D.; Hollinger, D.Y.; Perakis, S.S.

2009-01-01

Interannual variation of carbon fluxes can be attributed to a number of biotic and abiotic controls that operate at different spatial and temporal scales. Type and frequency of disturbance, forest dynamics, and climate regimes are important sources of variability. Assessing the variability of carbon fluxes from these specific sources can enhance the interpretation of past and current observations. Being able to separate the variability caused by forest dynamics from that induced by climate will also give us the ability to determine if the current observed carbon fluxes are within an expected range or whether the ecosystem is undergoing unexpected change. Sources of interannual variation in ecosystem carbon fluxes from three evergreen ecosystems, a tropical, a temperate coniferous, and a boreal forest, were explored using the simulation model STANDCARB. We identified key processes that introduced variation in annual fluxes, but their relative importance differed among the ecosystems studied. In the tropical site, intrinsic forest dynamics contributed ?? 30% of the total variation in annual carbon fluxes. In the temperate and boreal sites, where many forest processes occur over longer temporal scales than those at the tropical site, climate controlled more of the variation among annual fluxes. These results suggest that climate-related variability affects the rates of carbon exchange differently among sites. Simulations in which temperature, precipitation, and radiation varied from year to year (based on historical records of climate variation) had less net carbon stores than simulations in which these variables were held constant (based on historical records of monthly average climate), a result caused by the functional relationship between temperature and respiration. This suggests that, under a more variable temperature regime, large respiratory pulses may become more frequent and high enough to cause a reduction in ecosystem carbon stores. Our results also show that the variation of annual carbon fluxes poses an important challenge in our ability to determine whether an ecosystem is a source, a sink, or is neutral in regard to CO2 at longer timescales. In simulations where climate change negatively affected ecosystem carbon stores, there was a 20% chance of committing Type II error, even with 20 years of sequential data. ?? 2009 by the Ecological Society of America.

Figure 3

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The Figure.tar.gz contains a directory for each WRF ensemble run. In these directories are *.csv files for each meteorology variable examined. These are comma delimited text files that contain statistics for each observation site. Also provided is an R script that reads these files (user would need to change directory pointers) and computes the variability of error and bias of the ensemble at each site and plots these for reproduction of figure 3.This dataset is associated with the following publication:Gilliam , R., C. Hogrefe , J. Godowitch, S. Napelenok , R. Mathur , and S.T. Rao. Impact of inherent meteorology uncertainty on air quality model predictions. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES. American Geophysical Union, Washington, DC, USA, 120(23): 12,259–12,280, (2015).

An hourly variation in zoo visitor interest: measurement and significance for animal welfare research.

PubMed

Davey, Gareth

2006-01-01

A methodological difficulty facing welfare research on nonhuman animals in the zoo is the large number of uncontrolled variables due to variation within and between study sites. Zoo visitors act as uncontrolled variables, with number, density, size, and behavior constantly changing. This is worrisome because previous research linked visitor variables to animal behavioral changes indicative of stress. There are implications for research design: Studies not accounting for visitors' effect on animal welfare risk confounding (visitor) variables distorting their findings. Zoos need methods to measure and minimize effects of visitor behavior and to ensure that there are no hidden variables in research models. This article identifies a previously unreported variable--hourly variation (decrease) in visitor interest--that may impinge on animal welfare and validates a methodology for measuring it. That visitor interest wanes across the course of the day has important implications for animal welfare management; visitor effects on animal welfare are likely to occur, or intensify, during the morning or in earlier visits when visitor interest is greatest. This article discusses this issue and possible solutions to reduce visitor effects on animal well-being.

Spaceborne potential for examining taiga-tundra ecotone form and vulnerability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montesano, Paul M.; Sun, Guoqing; Dubayah, Ralph O.; Ranson, K. Jon

2016-07-01

In the taiga-tundra ecotone (TTE), site-dependent forest structure characteristics can influence the subtle and heterogeneous structural changes that occur across the broad circumpolar extent. Such changes may be related to ecotone form, described by the horizontal and vertical patterns of forest structure (e.g., tree cover, density, and height) within TTE forest patches, driven by local site conditions, and linked to ecotone dynamics. The unique circumstance of subtle, variable, and widespread vegetation change warrants the application of spaceborne data including high-resolution (< 5 m) spaceborne imagery (HRSI) across broad scales for examining TTE form and predicting dynamics. This study analyzes forest structure at the patch scale in the TTE to provide a means to examine both vertical and horizontal components of ecotone form. We demonstrate the potential of spaceborne data for integrating forest height and density to assess TTE form at the scale of forest patches across the circumpolar biome by (1) mapping forest patches in study sites along the TTE in northern Siberia with a multi-resolution suite of spaceborne data and (2) examining the uncertainty of forest patch height from this suite of data across sites of primarily diffuse TTE forms. Results demonstrate the opportunities for improving patch-scale spaceborne estimates of forest height, the vertical component of TTE form, with HRSI. The distribution of relative maximum height uncertainty based on prediction intervals is centered at ˜ 40 %, constraining the use of height for discerning differences in forest patches. We discuss this uncertainty in light of a conceptual model of general ecotone forms and highlight how the uncertainty of spaceborne estimates of height can contribute to the uncertainty in identifying TTE forms. A focus on reducing the uncertainty of height estimates in forest patches may improve depiction of TTE form, which may help explain variable forest responses in the TTE to climate change and the vulnerability of portions of the TTE to forest structure change.

WEATHER RELATED VARIABILITY OF CALORIMETERY PERFORMANCE IN A POORLY CONTROLLED ENVIRONMENT

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

CAMERON, M.A.

2007-04-16

Four Antech airbath calorimeters at the Hanford site were studied for three summers and two winters in a location not well-shielded from outside temperature changes. All calorimeters showed significant increases in variability of standard measurements during hot weather. The increased variability is postulated to be due to a low setting of the Peltier cold face temperature, which doesn't allow the instrument to drain heat fast enough in a hot environment. A higher setting of the Peltier cold face might lead to better performance in environments subjected to a broad range of temperatures.

WEATHER RELATED VARIABILITY OF CALORIMETERY PERFORMANCE IN A POORLY CONTROLLED ENVIRONMENT

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

CAMERON, M.A.

2007-04-16

Four Antech airbath calorimeters at the Hanford site were studied for three summers and two winters in a location not well-shielded from outside temperature changes. Calorimeters showed significant increases in variability of standard measurements during hot weather. The increased variability is postulated to be due to a low setting of the Peltier cold face temperature, which doesn't allow the instrument to drain heat fast enough in a hot environment. A higher setting of the Peltier cold face might lead to better performance in environments subjected to a broad range of temperatures.

Modern Timber Harvesting Practices Have Little Short-Term Effect on Soil Carbon Stores in Industrial Forests of Western Oregon and Washington, U.S.A.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holub, S. M.; Hatten, J. A.

2017-12-01

Soil carbon represents a large, but slowly changing pool of carbon in forests and understanding its response to forest management, including harvesting, is critical for determining overall stand/landscape carbon balance. Past studies have observed mixed effects of harvesting on soil carbon possibly due, in part, to imprecise sampling methods and high variability within soils. Weyerhaeuser Company has led a major effort to examine the effect of conventional timber harvesting on long-term soil carbon stores in western Oregon and Washington Douglas-fir forests using a highly-replicated longitudinal study design that enables precise estimation of variability found in these systems. In 2010, we randomly selected nine harvest units from Weyerhaeuser's 2012 harvest plan. At each non-harvested unit, a uniform, non-rocky area of about 3-6 hectares was selected for the study. Pre-harvest soil samples were collected at 300 sample points from each unit on a fixed square grid, targeting an intensity that would allow detection of >5% change in soil carbon stores. We measured soil carbon concentration and soil bulk density in depth increments to 1 m to allow for the calculation of total soil carbon per hectare. Other ecosystem pools of carbon, such as trees and downed wood, also have been measured to complete the whole-site carbon budget. All units were harvested from late 2011 through mid-year 2012. In 2015, 3-3.5 years post-harvest, we resampled the same areas in an identical manner as the pre-harvest collection to evaluate changes in soil carbon following harvest. Across all sites combined, we estimated a +2% change (-2% to +6%, 95% confidence interval) in mineral soil carbon following harvest, which is consistent with small-to-no change. Individual sites varied in direction of response; only one site showed evidence of a slight decrease in soil carbon, while two sites showed slight gains. These early results indicate that Weyerhaeuser's conventional timber harvesting methods in the Pacific Northwest do not cause substantial short-term losses in soil carbon. Continued monitoring is necessary, however, to document the longer-term trajectory of soil carbon levels through stand development.

Quantifying Fast and Slow Responses of Terrestrial Carbon Exchange across a Water Availability Gradient in North American Flux Sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biederman, J. A.; Scott, R. L.; Goulden, M.

2014-12-01

Climate change is predicted to increase the frequency and severity of water limitation, altering terrestrial ecosystems and their carbon exchange with the atmosphere. Here we compare site-level temporal sensitivity of annual carbon fluxes to interannual variations in water availability against cross-site spatial patterns over a network of 19 eddy covariance flux sites. This network represents one order of magnitude in mean annual productivity and includes western North American desert shrublands and grasslands, savannahs, woodlands, and forests with continuous records of 4 to 12 years. Our analysis reveals site-specific patterns not identifiable in prior syntheses that pooled sites. We interpret temporal variability as an indicator of ecosystem response to annual water availability due to fast-changing factors such as leaf stomatal response and microbial activity, while cross-site spatial patterns are used to infer ecosystem adjustment to climatic water availability through slow-changing factors such as plant community and organic carbon pools. Using variance decomposition, we directly quantify how terrestrial carbon balance depends on slow- and fast-changing components of gross ecosystem production (GEP) and total ecosystem respiration (TER). Slow factors explain the majority of variance in annual net ecosystem production (NEP) across the dataset, and their relative importance is greater at wetter, forest sites than desert ecosystems. Site-specific offsets from spatial patterns of GEP and TER explain one third of NEP variance, likely due to slow-changing factors not directly linked to water, such as disturbance. TER and GEP are correlated across sites as previously shown, but our site-level analysis reveals surprisingly consistent linear relationships between these fluxes in deserts and savannahs, indicating fast coupling of TER and GEP in more arid ecosystems. Based on the uncertainty associated with slow and fast factors, we suggest a framework for improved prediction of terrestrial carbon balance. We will also present results of ongoing work to quantify fast and slow contributions to the relationship between evapotranspiration and precipitation across a precipitation gradient.

Driving factors of a vegetation shift from Scots pine to pubescent oak in dry Alpine forests.

PubMed

Rigling, Andreas; Bigler, Christof; Eilmann, Britta; Feldmeyer-Christe, Elisabeth; Gimmi, Urs; Ginzler, Christian; Graf, Ulrich; Mayer, Philipp; Vacchiano, Giorgio; Weber, Pascale; Wohlgemuth, Thomas; Zweifel, Roman; Dobbertin, Matthias

2013-01-01

An increasing number of studies have reported on forest declines and vegetation shifts triggered by drought. In the Swiss Rhone valley (Valais), one of the driest inner-Alpine regions, the species composition in low elevation forests is changing: The sub-boreal Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) dominating the dry forests is showing high mortality rates. Concurrently the sub-Mediterranean pubescent oak (Quercus pubescens Willd.) has locally increased in abundance. However, it remains unclear whether this local change in species composition is part of a larger-scale vegetation shift. To study variability in mortality and regeneration in these dry forests we analysed data from the Swiss national forest inventory (NFI) on a regular grid between 1983 and 2003, and combined it with annual mortality data from a monitoring site. Pine mortality was found to be highest at low elevation (below 1000 m a.s.l.). Annual variation in pine mortality was correlated with a drought index computed for the summer months prior to observed tree death. A generalized linear mixed-effects model indicated for the NFI data increased pine mortality on dryer sites with high stand competition, particularly for small-diameter trees. Pine regeneration was low in comparison to its occurrence in the overstorey, whereas oak regeneration was comparably abundant. Although both species regenerated well at dry sites, pine regeneration was favoured at cooler sites at higher altitude and oak regeneration was more frequent at warmer sites, indicating a higher adaptation potential of oaks under future warming. Our results thus suggest that an extended shift in species composition is actually occurring in the pine forests in the Valais. The main driving factors are found to be climatic variability, particularly drought, and variability in stand structure and topography. Thus, pine forests at low elevations are developing into oak forests with unknown consequences for these ecosystems and their goods and services. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Use of an integrated flow model to estimate ecologically relevant hydrologic characteristics at stream biomonitoring sites

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kennen, J.G.; Kauffman, L.J.; Ayers, M.A.; Wolock, D.M.; Colarullo, S.J.

2008-01-01

We developed an integrated hydroecological model to provide a comprehensive set of hydrologic variables representing five major components of the flow regime at 856 aquatic-invertebrate monitoring sites in New Jersey. The hydroecological model simulates streamflow by routing water that moves overland and through the subsurface from atmospheric delivery to the watershed outlet. Snow accumulation and melt, evapotranspiration, precipitation, withdrawals, discharges, pervious- and impervious-area runoff, and lake storage were accounted for in the water balance. We generated more than 78 flow variables, which describe the frequency, magnitude, duration, rate of change, and timing of flow events. Highly correlated variables were filtered by principal component analysis to obtain a non-redundant subset of variables that explain the majority of the variation in the complete set. This subset of variables was used to evaluate the effect of changes in the flow regime on aquatic-invertebrate assemblage structure at 856 biomonitoring sites. We used non-metric multidimensional scaling (NMS) to evaluate variation in aquatic-invertebrate assemblage structure across a disturbance gradient. We employed multiple linear regression (MLR) analysis to build a series of MLR models that identify the most important environmental and hydrologic variables driving the differences in the aquatic-invertebrate assemblages across the disturbance gradient. The first axis of NMS ordination was significantly related to many hydrologic, habitat, and land-use/land-cover variables, including the average number of annual storms producing runoff, ratio of 25-75% exceedance flow (flashiness), diversity of natural stream substrate, and the percentage of forested land near the stream channel (forest buffer). Modifications in the hydrologic regime as the result of changes in watershed land use appear to promote the retention of highly tolerant aquatic species; in contrast, species that are sensitive to hydrologic instability and other anthropogenic disturbance become much less prevalent. We also found strong relations between an index of invertebrate-assemblage impairment, its component metrics, and the primary disturbance gradient. The process-oriented watershed modeling approach used in this study provides a means to evaluate how natural landscape features interact with anthropogenic factors and assess their effects on flow characteristics and stream ecology. By combining watershed modeling and indirect ordination techniques, we were able to identify components of the hydrologic regime that have a considerable effect on aquatic-assemblage structure and help in developing short- and long-term management measures that mitigate the effects of anthropogenic disturbance in stream systems.

A reference time scale for Site U1385 (Shackleton Site) on the SW Iberian Margin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hodell, D.; Lourens, L.; Crowhurst, S.; Konijnendijk, T.; Tjallingii, R.; Jiménez-Espejo, F.; Skinner, L.; Tzedakis, P. C.; Abrantes, Fatima; Acton, Gary D.; Alvarez Zarikian, Carlos A.; Bahr, André; Balestra, Barbara; Barranco, Estefanìa Llave; Carrara, Gabriela; Ducassou, Emmanuelle; Flood, Roger D.; Flores, José-Abel; Furota, Satoshi; Grimalt, Joan; Grunert, Patrick; Hernández-Molina, Javier; Kim, Jin Kyoung; Krissek, Lawrence A.; Kuroda, Junichiro; Li, Baohua; Lofi, Johanna; Margari, Vasiliki; Martrat, Belen; Miller, Madeline D.; Nanayama, Futoshi; Nishida, Naohisa; Richter, Carl; Rodrigues, Teresa; Rodríguez-Tovar, Francisco J.; Roque, Ana Cristina Freixo; Sanchez Goñi, Maria F.; Sierro Sánchez, Francisco J.; Singh, Arun D.; Sloss, Craig R.; Stow, Dorrik A. V.; Takashimizu, Yasuhiro; Tzanova, Alexandrina; Voelker, Antje; Xuan, Chuang; Williams, Trevor

2015-10-01

We produced a composite depth scale and chronology for Site U1385 on the SW Iberian Margin. Using log(Ca/Ti) measured by core scanning XRF at 1-cm resolution in all holes, a composite section was constructed to 166.5 meter composite depth (mcd) that corrects for stretching and squeezing in each core. Oxygen isotopes of benthic foraminifera were correlated to a stacked δ18O reference signal (LR04) to produce an oxygen isotope stratigraphy and age model. Variations in sediment color contain very strong precession signals at Site U1385, and the amplitude modulation of these cycles provides a powerful tool for developing an orbitally-tuned age model. We tuned the U1385 record by correlating peaks in L* to the local summer insolation maxima at 37°N. The benthic δ18O record of Site U1385, when placed on the tuned age model, generally agrees with other time scales within their respective chronologic uncertainties. The age model is transferred to down-core data to produce a continuous time series of log(Ca/Ti) that reflect relative changes of biogenic carbonate and detrital sediment. Biogenic carbonate increases during interglacial and interstadial climate states and decreases during glacial and stadial periods. Much of the variance in the log(Ca/Ti) is explained by a linear combination of orbital frequencies (precession, tilt and eccentricity), whereas the residual signal reflects suborbital climate variability. The strong correlation between suborbital log(Ca/Ti) variability and Greenland temperature over the last glacial cycle at Site U1385 suggests that this signal can be used as a proxy for millennial-scale climate variability over the past 1.5 Ma. Millennial climate variability, as expressed by log(Ca/Ti) at Site U1385, was a persistent feature of glacial climates over the past 1.5 Ma, including glacial periods of the early Pleistocene ('41-kyr world') when boundary conditions differed significantly from those of the late Pleistocene ('100-kyr world'). Suborbital variability was suppressed during interglacial stages and enhanced during glacial periods, especially when benthic δ18O surpassed 3.3-3.5‰. Each glacial inception was marked by appearance of strong millennial variability and each deglaciation was preceded by a terminal stadial event. Suborbital variability may be a symptomatic feature of glacial climate or, alternatively, may play a more active role in the inception and/or termination of glacial cycles.

Mediterranean Outflow Water dynamics during the past 570 kyr: Regional and global implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaboth, Stefanie; de Boer, Bas; Bahr, André; Zeeden, Christian; Lourens, Lucas J.

2017-06-01

The Gulf of Cadiz constitutes a prime area to study teleconnections between the North Atlantic Ocean and climate change in the Mediterranean realm. In particular, the highly saline Mediterranean Outflow Water (MOW) is an important modulator of the North Atlantic salt budget on intermediate water levels. However, our understanding of its paleoceanographic evolution is poorly constrained due to the lack of high-resolution proxy records that predate the last glacial cycle. Here we present the first continuous and high-resolution ( 1 kyr) benthic δ18O and δ13C as well as grain size records from Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Site U1386 representing the last 570 kyr. We find three distinct phases of MOW variability throughout the Late to Middle Pleistocene at Site U1386 associated with prominent shifts in its composition and flow strength. We attribute this long-term variability to changes in water mass sourcing of the MOW. Superimposed on the long-term change in water mass sourcing is the occurrence of distinct and precession paced δ18O enrichment events, which contrast the pattern of global ice volume change as inferred from the global mean δ18O signal (i.e., LR04) but mimics that of the adjacent Mediterranean Sea. We attribute these enrichment events to a profound temperature reduction and salinity increases of the MOW, aligning with similar changes in the Mediterranean source region. These events might further signify ice volume increases as inferred from significant sea level drops recorded in the Red Sea and/or increased influence of North Atlantic intermediate water masses when MOW influence was absent at Site U1386.

Climate change threatens endangered plant species by stronger and interacting water-related stresses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bartholomeus, Ruud P.; Witte, Jan-Philip M.; van Bodegom, Peter M.; van Dam, Jos C.; Aerts, Rien

2011-12-01

Atmospheric CO2-concentration, temperature and rainfall variability are all expected to increase in the near future. The resulting increased dynamics of soil moisture contents, together with increased plant physiological demands for both oxygen and water, will lead to an increased occurrence of wet and dry extremes of plant stresses, i.e., of oxygen and drought stress, respectively, alone and in interaction. The use of indirect environmental variables in previous studies and a focus on individual stresses rather than their combined effects has hampered understanding of the causal impact of climate change on plant species composition through changes in abiotic site conditions. Here, we use process-based simulations of oxygen and drought stresses in conjunction with a downscaled national version of IPCC scenarios in order to show that these stresses will increase (on average by ˜20% at sites where both stresses occur) in a warmer and more variable future (2050) climate. These two types of stresses will increasingly coincide, i.e. both stresses will occur more often (but not at the same time) within a single vegetation plot. We further show that this increased coincidence of water-related stresses will negatively affect the future occurrence of currently endangered plant species (causing a reduction of ˜16%), while apparently no such decrease will occur among common species. Individual stresses did not appear to affect the occurrence of endangered plant species. Consequently, our study demonstrates that species that are already threatened under the current climate will suffer most from the effects of climate change.

Measurements of Rural Sulfur Dioxide and Particle Sulfate: Analysis of CASTNet Data, 1987 through 1996.

PubMed

Baumgardner, Ralph E; Isil, Selma S; Bowser, Jon J; Fitzgerald, Kelley M

1999-11-01

The Clean Air Status and Trends Network (CASTNet) was implemented by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in 1991 in response to Title IX of the Clean Air Amendments of 1990, which mandated the deployment of a national ambient air monitoring network to track progress of the implementation of emission reduction programs in terms of deposition, air quality, and changes to affected ecosystems. CASTNet evolved from the National Dry Deposition Network (NDDN). CASTNet currently consists of 45 sites in the eastern United States and 28 sites in the West. Each site measures sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ), nitric acid (HNO 3 ), particle sulfate (SO 4 = ), particle nitrate (NO 3 - ), and ozone. Nineteen sites collect precipitation samples. NDDN/CASTNet uses a uniform set of site-selection criteria which provides the data user with consistent measures to compare each site. These criteria also ensure that, to the extent possible, CASTNet sites are located away from local emission sources. This paper presents an analysis of SO 2 and SO 4 = concentration data collected from 1987 through 1996 at rural NDDN/CASTNet sites. Annual and seasonal variability is examined. Gradients of SO 2 and SO 4 = are discussed. The variability of the atmospheric mix of SO 2 and SO 4 = is explored spatially and seasonally. Data from CASTNet are also compared to SO 2 and SO 4 = data from concurrent monitoring studies in rural areas.

Large-scale estimates of gross primary production on the Qinghai-Tibet plateau based on remote sensing data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, M., II; Yuan, W.; Dong, J.; Zhang, F.; Cai, W.; Li, H.

2017-12-01

Vegetation gross primary production (GPP) is an important variable for the carbon cycle on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP). Based on the measurements from twelve eddy covariance (EC) sites, we validated a light use efficiency model (i.e. EC-LUE) to evaluate the spatial-temporal patterns of GPP and the effect of environmental variables on QTP. The EC-LUE model explained 85.4% of the daily observed GPP variations through all of the twelve EC sites, and characterized very well the seasonal changes of GPP. Annual GPP over the entire QTP ranged from 575 to 703 Tg C, and showed a significantly increasing trend from 1982 to 2013. However, there were large spatial heterogeneities in long-term trends of GPP. Throughout the entire QTP, air temperature TA increase had a greater influence than solar radiation and PREC changes on productivity. Moreover, our results highlight the large uncertainties of previous GPP estimates due to insufficient parameterization and validations. When compared with GPP estimates of the EC-LUE model, most Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) GPP products overestimate the magnitude and increasing trends of regional GPP, which potentially impact the feedback of ecosystems to regional climate changes.

Habitat connectivity and in-stream vegetation control temporal variability of benthic invertebrate communities.

PubMed

Huttunen, K-L; Mykrä, H; Oksanen, J; Astorga, A; Paavola, R; Muotka, T

2017-05-03

One of the key challenges to understanding patterns of β diversity is to disentangle deterministic patterns from stochastic ones. Stochastic processes may mask the influence of deterministic factors on community dynamics, hindering identification of the mechanisms causing variation in community composition. We studied temporal β diversity (among-year dissimilarity) of macroinvertebrate communities in near-pristine boreal streams across 14 years. To assess whether the observed β diversity deviates from that expected by chance, and to identify processes (deterministic vs. stochastic) through which different explanatory factors affect community variability, we used a null model approach. We observed that at the majority of sites temporal β diversity was low indicating high community stability. When stochastic variation was unaccounted for, connectivity was the only variable explaining temporal β diversity, with weakly connected sites exhibiting higher community variability through time. After accounting for stochastic effects, connectivity lost importance, suggesting that it was related to temporal β diversity via random colonization processes. Instead, β diversity was best explained by in-stream vegetation, community variability decreasing with increasing bryophyte cover. These results highlight the potential of stochastic factors to dampen the influence of deterministic processes, affecting our ability to understand and predict changes in biological communities through time.

Does surface roughness dominate biophysical forcing of land use and land cover change in the eastern United States?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burakowski, E. A.; Tawfik, A. B.; Ouimette, A.; Lepine, L. C.; Ollinger, S. V.; Bonan, G. B.; Zarzycki, C. M.; Novick, K. A.

2016-12-01

Changes in land use, land cover, or both promote changes in surface temperature that can amplify or dampen long-term trends driven by natural and anthropogenic climate change by modifying the surface energy budget, primarily through differences in albedo, evapotranspiration, and aerodynamic roughness. Recent advances in variable resolution global models provide the tools necessary to investigate local and global impacts of land use and land cover change by embedding a high-resolution grid over areas of interest in a seamless and computationally efficient manner. Here, we used two eddy covariance tower clusters in the Eastern US (University of New Hampshire UNH and Duke Forest) to validate simulation of surface energy fluxes and properties by the uncoupled Community Land Model (PTCLM4.5) and coupled land-atmosphere Variable-Resolution Community Earth System Model (VR-CESM1.3). Surface energy fluxes and properties are generally well captured by the models for grassland sites, however forested sites tend to underestimate latent heat and overestimate sensible heat flux. Surface roughness emerged as the dominant biophysical forcing factor affecting surface temperature in the eastern United States, generally leading to warmer nighttime temperatures and cooler daytime temperatures. However, the sign and magnitude of the roughness effect on surface temperature was highly sensitive to the calculation of aerodynamic resistance to heat transfer.

Can the biomass-ratio hypothesis predict mixed-species litter decomposition along a climatic gradient?

PubMed Central

Tardif, Antoine; Shipley, Bill; Bloor, Juliette M. G.; Soussana, Jean-François

2014-01-01

Background and Aims The biomass-ratio hypothesis states that ecosystem properties are driven by the characteristics of dominant species in the community. In this study, the hypothesis was operationalized as community-weighted means (CWMs) of monoculture values and tested for predicting the decomposition of multispecies litter mixtures along an abiotic gradient in the field. Methods Decomposition rates (mg g−1 d−1) of litter from four herb species were measured using litter-bed experiments with the same soil at three sites in central France along a correlated climatic gradient of temperature and precipitation. All possible combinations from one to four species mixtures were tested over 28 weeks of incubation. Observed mixture decomposition rates were compared with those predicted by the biomass-ratio hypothesis. Variability of the prediction errors was compared with the species richness of the mixtures, across sites, and within sites over time. Key Results Both positive and negative prediction errors occurred. Despite this, the biomass-ratio hypothesis was true as an average claim for all sites (r = 0·91) and for each site separately, except for the climatically intermediate site, which showed mainly synergistic deviations. Variability decreased with increasing species richness and in less favourable climatic conditions for decomposition. Conclusions Community-weighted mean values provided good predictions of mixed-species litter decomposition, converging to the predicted values with increasing species richness and in climates less favourable to decomposition. Under a context of climate change, abiotic variability would be important to take into account when predicting ecosystem processes. PMID:24482152

Temporal trends in algae, benthic invertebrate, and fish assemblages in streams and rivers draining basins of varying land use in the south-central United States, 1993-2007

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, Matthew P.; Kennen, Jonathan G.; Mabe, Jeffrey A.; Mize, Scott V.

2012-01-01

Site-specific temporal trends in algae, benthic invertebrate, and fish assemblages were investigated in 15 streams and rivers draining basins of varying land use in the south-central United States from 1993–2007. A multivariate approach was used to identify sites with statistically significant trends in aquatic assemblages which were then tested for correlations with assemblage metrics and abiotic environmental variables (climate, water quality, streamflow, and physical habitat). Significant temporal trends in one or more of the aquatic assemblages were identified at more than half (eight of 15) of the streams in the study. Assemblage metrics and abiotic environmental variables found to be significantly correlated with aquatic assemblages differed between land use categories. For example, algal assemblages at undeveloped sites were associated with physical habitat, while algal assemblages at more anthropogenically altered sites (agricultural and urban) were associated with nutrient and streamflow metrics. In urban stream sites results indicate that streamflow metrics may act as important controls on water quality conditions, as represented by aquatic assemblage metrics. The site-specific identification of biotic trends and abiotic–biotic relations presented here will provide valuable information that can inform interpretation of continued monitoring data and the design of future studies. In addition, the subsets of abiotic variables identified as potentially important drivers of change in aquatic assemblages provide policy makers and resource managers with information that will assist in the design and implementation of monitoring programs aimed at the protection of aquatic resources.

Ecological-site based assessments of wind and water erosion: informing management of accelerated soil erosion in rangelands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Webb, N.; Herrick, J.; Duniway, M.

2013-12-01

This work explores how soil erosion assessments can be structured in the context of ecological sites and site dynamics to inform systems for managing accelerated soil erosion. We evaluated wind and water erosion rates for five ecological sites in southern New Mexico, USA, using monitoring data and rangeland-specific wind and water erosion models. Our results show that wind and water erosion can be highly variable within and among ecological sites. Plots in shrub-encroached and shrub-dominated states were consistently susceptible to both wind and water erosion. However, grassland plots and plots with a grass-succulent mix had a high indicated susceptibility to wind and water erosion respectively. Vegetation thresholds for controlling erosion are identified that transcend the ecological sites and their respective states. The thresholds define vegetation cover levels at which rapid (exponential) increases in erosion rates begin to occur, suggesting that erosion in the study ecosystem can be effectively controlled when bare ground cover is <20% of a site or total ground cover is >50%. Similarly, our results show that erosion can be controlled when the cover of canopy interspaces >50 cm in length reaches ~50%, the cover of canopy interspaces >100 cm in length reaches ~35% or the cover of canopy interspaces >150 cm in length reaches ~20%. This process-based understanding can be applied, along with knowledge of the differential sensitivity of vegetation states, to improve erosion management systems. Land use and management activities that alter cover levels such that they cross thresholds, and/or drive vegetation state changes, may increase the susceptibility of sites to erosion. Land use impacts that are constrained within the natural variability of sites should not result in accelerated soil erosion. Evaluating land condition against the erosion thresholds and natural variability of ecological sites will enable improved identification of where and when accelerated soil erosion occurs and the development of practical management solutions.

Meta-Analysis of Land Use / Land Cover Change Factors in the Conterminous US and Prediction of Potential Working Timberlands in the US South from FIA Inventory Plots and NLCD Cover Maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeuck, James A.

This dissertation consists of research projects related to forest land use / land cover (LULC): (1) factors predicting LULC change and (2) methodology to predict particular forest use, or "potential working timberland" (PWT), from current forms of land data. The first project resulted in a published paper, a meta-analysis of 64 econometric models from 47 studies predicting forest land use changes. The response variables, representing some form of forest land change, were organized into four groups: forest conversion to agriculture (F2A), forestland to development (F2D), forestland to non-forested (F2NF) and undeveloped (including forestland) to developed (U2D) land. Over 250 independent econometric variables were identified, from 21 F2A models, 21 F2D models, 12 F2NF models, and 10 U2D models. These variables were organized into a hierarchy of 119 independent variable groups, 15 categories, and 4 econometric drivers suitable for conducting simple vote count statistics. Vote counts were summarized at the independent variable group level and formed into ratios estimating the predictive success of each variable group. Two ratio estimates were developed based on (1) proportion of times independent variables successfully achieved statistical significance (p ≤0.10), and (2) proportion of times independent variables successfully met the original researchers'expectations. In F2D models, popular independent variables such as population, income, and urban proximity often achieved statistical significance. In F2A models, popular independent variables such as forest and agricultural rents and costs, governmental programs, and site quality often achieved statistical significance. In U2D models, successful independent variables included urban rents and costs, zoning issues concerning forestland loss, site quality, urban proximity, population, and income. F2NF models high success variables were found to be agricultural rents, site quality, population, and income. This meta-analysis provides insight into the general success of econometric independent variables for future forest use or cover change research. The second part of this dissertation developed a method for predicting area estimates and spatial distribution of PWT in the US South. This technique determined land use from USFS Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) and land cover from the National Land Cover Database (NLCD). Three dependent variable forms (DV Forms) were derived from the FIA data: DV Form 1, timberland, other; DV Form 2, short timberland, tall timberland, agriculture, other; and DV Form 3, short hardwood (HW) timberland, tall HW timberland, short softwood (SW) timberland, tall SW timberland, agriculture, other. The prediction accuracy of each DV Form was investigated using both random forest model and logistic regression model specifications and data optimization techniques. Model verification employing a "leave-group-out" Monte Carlo simulation determined the selection of a stratified version of the random forest model using one-year NLCD observations with an overall accuracy of 0.53-0.94. The lower accuracy side of the range was when predictions were made from an aggregated NLCD land cover class "grass_shrub". The selected model specification was run using 2011 NLCD and the other predictor variables to produce three levels of timberland prediction and probability maps for the US South. Spatial masks removed areas unlikely to be working forests (protected and urbanized lands) resulting in PWT maps. The area of the resulting maps compared well with USFS area estimates and masked PWT maps and had an 8-11% reduction of the USFS timberland estimate for the US South compared to the DV Form. Change analysis of the 2011 NLCD to PWT showed (1) the majority of the short timberland came from NLCD grass_shrub; (2) the majority of NLCD grass_shrub predicted into tall timberland, and (3) NLCD grass_shrub was more strongly associated with timberland in the Coastal Plain. Resulting map products provide practical analytical tools for those interested in studying the area and distribution of PWT in the US South.

Biodiversity in canopy-forming algae: Structure and spatial variability of the Mediterranean Cystoseira assemblages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piazzi, L.; Bonaviri, C.; Castelli, A.; Ceccherelli, G.; Costa, G.; Curini-Galletti, M.; Langeneck, J.; Manconi, R.; Montefalcone, M.; Pipitone, C.; Rosso, A.; Pinna, S.

2018-07-01

In the Mediterranean Sea, Cystoseira species are the most important canopy-forming algae in shallow rocky bottoms, hosting high biodiverse sessile and mobile communities. A large-scale study has been carried out to investigate the structure of the Cystoseira-dominated assemblages at different spatial scales and to test the hypotheses that alpha and beta diversity of the assemblages, the abundance and the structure of epiphytic macroalgae, epilithic macroalgae, sessile macroinvertebrates and mobile macroinvertebrates associated to Cystoseira beds changed among scales. A hierarchical sampling design in a total of five sites across the Mediterranean Sea (Croatia, Montenegro, Sardinia, Tuscany and Balearic Islands) was used. A total of 597 taxa associated to Cystoseira beds were identified with a mean number per sample ranging between 141.1 ± 6.6 (Tuscany) and 173.9 ± 8.5(Sardinia). A high variability at small (among samples) and large (among sites) scale was generally highlighted, but the studied assemblages showed different patterns of spatial variability. The relative importance of the different scales of spatial variability should be considered to optimize sampling designs and propose monitoring plans of this habitat.

Impacts of Vegetation on CO2 exchange, permafrost thaw depth, and NDVI in Alaskan tundra.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kerr, L.; Steltzer, H.; Natali, S.; Schade, J. D.; Mann, P. J.; Holmes, R. M.; Melton, S.

2017-12-01

Changes in terrestrial carbon cycling in response to a warming climate in the Arctic will, in large part, be driven by current and future composition of the plant community. To better understand the variation in plant community structure and impacts on carbon cycling, we examined relationships between vegetation composition, NDVI, CO2 exchange, and permafrost thaw depth in the Yukon Kuskokwim Delta (YKD) in southwest Alaska. Our study sites included lichen-dominated peat plateaus, tussock tundra, fens, and drained lakes. We found a significant and positive relationship between NDVI and net ecosystem exchange across sites. Dominant functional groups across sites included lichen, moss, and graminoid vegetation, but variability in vegetation cover was high both within and across sites. Tussock-dominated tundra, peat plateaus, and drained lakes shared many of the same species, while the fen site had several unique species. Areas with higher lichen cover were associated with low NDVI, low gross primary productivity (GPP), and low net ecosystem exchange (NEE) in comparison with areas with little or no lichen cover. Because lichen comprises a large portion of this region's biomass, it is an important variable to consider in the context of CO2 exchange in the arctic tundra.

Climate variability and nitrogen rate interactions affecting corn nitrogen use efficiency in Alabama

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Nitrogen (N) fertilization is an important practice to increase yield; however, plant–soil interactions to in-season changes in climatic conditions result on site-specific responses of corn to nitrogen rates. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of different climatic conditions and...

Long-Term Trends in Ecological Systems: A Basis for Understanding Responses to Global Change

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The Eco Trends Editorial Committee sorted through vast amounts of historical and ongoing data from 50 ecological sites in the continental United States including Alaska, several islands, and Antarctica to present in a logical format the variables commonly collected. This report presents a subset of...

TEMPORAL VARIABILITY IN PHYSICAL SPECIATION OF METALS DURING A WINTER RAIN-ON-SNOW EVENT

EPA Science Inventory

Particulate matter in urban rivers transports a significant fraction of pollutants, changes rapidly during storm events and is difficult to characterize. In this study, the physical speciation of trace metals and organic carbon in an urban river and upstream headwaters site in To...

REPORT ON GEOGRAPHIC AND SEASONAL VARIABILITY OF UV AFFECTING HUMAN AND ECOLOGICAL HEALTH

EPA Science Inventory

This report takes a look at how effects of ultraviolet radiation changes based on season and location. The data collected by EPA's network of Brewer Spectrophotometer devices was analyzed to determine trends in the flux of ultraviolet radiation at the different Brewer sites acro...

Longterm and spatial variability of Aerosol optical properties measured by sky radiometer in Japan sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aoki, K.

2016-12-01

Aerosols and cloud play an important role in the climate change. We started the long-term monitoring of aerosol and cloud optical properties since 1990's by using sky radiometer (POM-01, 02; Prede Co. Ltd., Japan). We provide the information, in this presentation, on the aerosol optical properties with respect to their temporal and spatial variability in Japan site (ex. Sapporo, Toyama, Kasuga and etc). The global distributions of aerosols have been derived from earth observation satellite and have been simulated in numerical models, which assume optical parameters. However, these distributions are difficult to derive because of variability in time and space. Therefore, Aerosol optical properties were investigated using the measurements from ground-based and ship-borne sky radiometer. The sky radiometer is an automatic instrument that takes observations only in daytime under the clear sky conditions. Observation of diffuse solar intensity interval was made every ten or five minutes by once. The aerosol optical properties were computed using the SKYRAD.pack version 4.2. The obtained Aerosol optical properties (Aerosol optical thickness, Ångström exponent, Single scattering albedo, and etc.) and size distribution volume clearly showed spatial and temporal variability in Japan area. In this study, we present the temporal and spatial variability of Aerosol optical properties at several Japan sites, applied to validation of satellite and numerical models. This project is validation satellite of GCOM-C, JAXA. The GCOM-C satellite scheduled to be launched in early 2017.

The Importance of Biotic vs. Abiotic Drivers of Local Plant Community Composition Along Regional Bioclimatic Gradients

PubMed Central

Klanderud, Kari; Vandvik, Vigdis; Goldberg, Deborah

2015-01-01

We assessed if the relative importance of biotic and abiotic factors for plant community composition differs along environmental gradients and between functional groups, and asked which implications this may have in a warmer and wetter future. The study location is a unique grid of sites spanning regional-scale temperature and precipitation gradients in boreal and alpine grasslands in southern Norway. Within each site we sampled vegetation and associated biotic and abiotic factors, and combined broad- and fine-scale ordination analyses to assess the relative explanatory power of these factors for species composition. Although the community responses to biotic and abiotic factors did not consistently change as predicted along the bioclimatic gradients, abiotic variables tended to explain a larger proportion of the variation in species composition towards colder sites, whereas biotic variables explained more towards warmer sites, supporting the stress gradient hypothesis. Significant interactions with precipitation suggest that biotic variables explained more towards wetter climates in the sub alpine and boreal sites, but more towards drier climates in the colder alpine. Thus, we predict that biotic interactions may become more important in alpine and boreal grasslands in a warmer future, although more winter precipitation may counteract this trend in oceanic alpine climates. Our results show that both local and regional scales analyses are needed to disentangle the local vegetation-environment relationships and their regional-scale drivers, and biotic interactions and precipitation must be included when predicting future species assemblages. PMID:26091266

The Importance of Biotic vs. Abiotic Drivers of Local Plant Community Composition Along Regional Bioclimatic Gradients.

PubMed

Klanderud, Kari; Vandvik, Vigdis; Goldberg, Deborah

2015-01-01

We assessed if the relative importance of biotic and abiotic factors for plant community composition differs along environmental gradients and between functional groups, and asked which implications this may have in a warmer and wetter future. The study location is a unique grid of sites spanning regional-scale temperature and precipitation gradients in boreal and alpine grasslands in southern Norway. Within each site we sampled vegetation and associated biotic and abiotic factors, and combined broad- and fine-scale ordination analyses to assess the relative explanatory power of these factors for species composition. Although the community responses to biotic and abiotic factors did not consistently change as predicted along the bioclimatic gradients, abiotic variables tended to explain a larger proportion of the variation in species composition towards colder sites, whereas biotic variables explained more towards warmer sites, supporting the stress gradient hypothesis. Significant interactions with precipitation suggest that biotic variables explained more towards wetter climates in the sub alpine and boreal sites, but more towards drier climates in the colder alpine. Thus, we predict that biotic interactions may become more important in alpine and boreal grasslands in a warmer future, although more winter precipitation may counteract this trend in oceanic alpine climates. Our results show that both local and regional scales analyses are needed to disentangle the local vegetation-environment relationships and their regional-scale drivers, and biotic interactions and precipitation must be included when predicting future species assemblages.

Mid-latitude shrub steppe plant communities: climate change consequences for soil water resources.

PubMed

Palmquist, Kyle A; Schlaepfer, Daniel R; Bradford, John B; Lauenroth, William K

2016-09-01

In the coming century, climate change is projected to impact precipitation and temperature regimes worldwide, with especially large effects in drylands. We use big sagebrush ecosystems as a model dryland ecosystem to explore the impacts of altered climate on ecohydrology and the implications of those changes for big sagebrush plant communities using output from 10 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) for two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). We ask: (1) What is the magnitude of variability in future temperature and precipitation regimes among GCMs and RCPs for big sagebrush ecosystems, and (2) How will altered climate and uncertainty in climate forecasts influence key aspects of big sagebrush water balance? We explored these questions across 1980-2010, 2030-2060, and 2070-2100 to determine how changes in water balance might develop through the 21st century. We assessed ecohydrological variables at 898 sagebrush sites across the western US using a process-based soil water model, SOILWAT, to model all components of daily water balance using site-specific vegetation parameters and site-specific soil properties for multiple soil layers. Our modeling approach allowed for changes in vegetation based on climate. Temperature increased across all GCMs and RCPs, whereas changes in precipitation were more variable across GCMs. Winter and spring precipitation was predicted to increase in the future (7% by 2030-2060, 12% by 2070-2100), resulting in slight increases in soil water potential (SWP) in winter. Despite wetter winter soil conditions, SWP decreased in late spring and summer due to increased evapotranspiration (6% by 2030-2060, 10% by 2070-2100) and groundwater recharge (26% and 30% increase by 2030-2060 and 2070-2100). Thus, despite increased precipitation in the cold season, soils may dry out earlier in the year, resulting in potentially longer, drier summer conditions. If winter precipitation cannot offset drier summer conditions in the future, we expect big sagebrush regeneration and survival will be negatively impacted, potentially resulting in shifts in the relative abundance of big sagebrush plant functional groups. Our results also highlight the importance of assessing multiple GCMs to understand the range of climate change outcomes on ecohydrology, which was contingent on the GCM chosen. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Using variance structure to quantify responses to perturbation in fish catches

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vidal, Tiffany E.; Irwin, Brian J.; Wagner, Tyler; Rudstam, Lars G.; Jackson, James R.; Bence, James R.

2017-01-01

We present a case study evaluation of gill-net catches of Walleye Sander vitreus to assess potential effects of large-scale changes in Oneida Lake, New York, including the disruption of trophic interactions by double-crested cormorants Phalacrocorax auritus and invasive dreissenid mussels. We used the empirical long-term gill-net time series and a negative binomial linear mixed model to partition the variability in catches into spatial and coherent temporal variance components, hypothesizing that variance partitioning can help quantify spatiotemporal variability and determine whether variance structure differs before and after large-scale perturbations. We found that the mean catch and the total variability of catches decreased following perturbation but that not all sampling locations responded in a consistent manner. There was also evidence of some spatial homogenization concurrent with a restructuring of the relative productivity of individual sites. Specifically, offshore sites generally became more productive following the estimated break point in the gill-net time series. These results provide support for the idea that variance structure is responsive to large-scale perturbations; therefore, variance components have potential utility as statistical indicators of response to a changing environment more broadly. The modeling approach described herein is flexible and would be transferable to other systems and metrics. For example, variance partitioning could be used to examine responses to alternative management regimes, to compare variability across physiographic regions, and to describe differences among climate zones. Understanding how individual variance components respond to perturbation may yield finer-scale insights into ecological shifts than focusing on patterns in the mean responses or total variability alone.

Loggerhead sea turtle environmental sex determination: implications of moisture and temperature for climate change based predictions for species survival.

PubMed

Wyneken, Jeanette; Lolavar, Alexandra

2015-05-01

It has been proposed that because marine turtles have environmentally determined sex by incubation temperature, elevated temperatures might skew sex ratios to unsustainable levels, leading to extinction. Elevated temperatures may also reduce availability of suitable nesting sites via sea level rise. Increased tropical storm activity can directly affect nest site moisture, embryonic development, and the probability that nests will survive. Here, we question some of these assumptions and review the limits of sex ratio estimates. Sea turtles may be more resilient to climate change than previously thought, in part because of hitherto unappreciated mechanisms for coping with variable incubation conditions. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The hydro-climatic history of the Gulf of Cadiz throughout the last ~570 kyr from IODP 339 Site U1386

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaboth, Stefanie; de Boer, Bas; Bahr, Andrè; Zeeden, Christian; Lourens, Lucas

2016-04-01

Here we present the first continuous and high-resolution (~ 1 kyr) benthic δ18O record from IODP Site U1386 (Gulf of Cadiz, IODP Exp. 339) representing the last 570 kyr. We find distinct and periodic δ18O enrichment events overimposed on patterns of global ice volume change as inferred from the global mean δ18O signal (i.e. LR04). These events occur most prominently during glacials, and are characterized by a relative increase of up to 1‰. The observed glacial δ18O enrichment represents a striking difference to deep-sea benthic δ18O records worldwide but is not without precedent as similar δ18O variability can be observed in the planktic signal of the Red Sea (Sites KL11 and KL23). There, similar glacial δ18O enrichment events have not raised particular interest since their occurrence was attributed to sea level induced salinity increase within this virtually landlocked basin. Our results suggest that the glacial δ18O enrichment at Site U1386 present salinity and/or temperature variability related to changes in the position of the frontal zone between subpolar and subtropical water masses within the Gulf of Cadiz. Interestingly, the δ18O enrichments at Site U1386 strongly reflect precession and semi-precession patterns. Since similar patterns can be observed in the Red Sea isotopic records, we argue that part of the inferred sea level reconstructions are biased by a regional and precession controlled mechanism.

Disturbance and productivity interactions mediate stability of forest composition and structure.

PubMed

O'Connor, Christopher D; Falk, Donald A; Lynch, Ann M; Swetnam, Thomas W; Wilcox, Craig P

2017-04-01

Fire is returning to many conifer-dominated forests where species composition and structure have been altered by fire exclusion. Ecological effects of these fires are influenced strongly by the degree of forest change during the fire-free period. Response of fire-adapted species assemblages to extended fire-free intervals is highly variable, even in communities with similar historical fire regimes. This variability in plant community response to fire exclusion is not well understood; however, ecological mechanisms such as individual species' adaptations to disturbance or competition and underlying site characteristics that facilitate or impede establishment and growth have been proposed as potential drivers of assemblage response. We used spatially explicit dendrochronological reconstruction of tree population dynamics and fire regimes to examine the influence of historical disturbance frequency (a proxy for adaptation to disturbance or competition), and potential site productivity (a proxy for underlying site characteristics) on the stability of forest composition and structure along a continuous ecological gradient of pine, dry mixed-conifer, mesic mixed-conifer, and spruce-fir forests following fire exclusion. While average structural density increased in all forests, species composition was relatively stable in the lowest productivity pine-dominated and highest productivity spruce-fir-dominated sites immediately following fire exclusion and for the next 100 years, suggesting site productivity as a primary control on species composition and structure in forests with very different historical fire regimes. Species composition was least stable on intermediate productivity sites dominated by mixed-conifer forests, shifting from primarily fire-adapted species to competition-adapted, fire-sensitive species within 20 years of fire exclusion. Rapid changes to species composition and stand densities have been interpreted by some as evidence of high-severity fire. We demonstrate that the very different ecological process of fire exclusion can produce similar changes by shifting selective pressures from disturbance-mediated to productivity-mediated controls. Restoring disturbance-adapted species composition and structure to intermediate productivity forests may help to buffer them against projected increasing temperatures, lengthening fire seasons, and more frequent and prolonged moisture stress. Fewer management options are available to promote adaptation in forest assemblages historically constrained by underlying site productivity. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Changes in US extreme sea levels and the role of large scale climate variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wahl, T.; Chambers, D. P.

2015-12-01

We analyze a set of 20 tide gauge records covering the contiguous United States (US) coastline and the period from 1929 to 2013 to identify long-term trends and multi-decadal variations in extreme sea levels (ESLs) relative to changes in mean sea level (MSL). Significant but small long-term trends in ESLs above/below MSL are found at individual sites along most coastline stretches, but are mostly confined to the southeast coast and the winter season when storm surges are primarily driven by extra-tropical cyclones. We identify six regions with broadly coherent and considerable multi-decadal ESL variations unrelated to MSL changes. Using a quasi-non-stationary extreme value analysis approach we show that the latter would have caused variations in design relevant return water levels (RWLs; 50 to 200 year return periods) ranging from ~10 cm to as much as 110 cm across the six regions. To explore the origin of these temporal changes and the role of large-scale climate variability we develop different sets of simple and multiple linear regression models with RWLs as dependent variables and climate indices, or tailored (toward the goal of predicting multi-decadal RWL changes) versions of them, and wind stress curl as independent predictors. The models, after being tested for spatial and temporal stability, explain up to 97% of the observed variability at individual sites and almost 80% on average. Using the model predictions as covariates for the quasi-non-stationary extreme value analysis also significantly reduces the range of change in the 100-year RWLs over time, turning a non-stationary process into a stationary one. This highlights that the models - when used with regional and global climate model output of the predictors - should also be capable of projecting future RWL changes to be used by decision makers for improved flood preparedness and long-term resiliency.

Mixed response in bacterial and biochemical variables to simulated sand mining in placer-rich beach sediments, Ratnagiri, West coast of India.

PubMed

Fernandes, Christabelle E G; Das, Anindita; Nath, B N; Faria, Daphne G; Loka Bharathi, P A

2012-05-01

We investigated the influence on bacterial community and biochemical variables through mechanical disturbance of sediment-akin to small-scale mining in Kalbadevi beach, Ratnagiri, a placer-rich beach ecosystem which is a potential mining site. Changes were investigated by comparing three periods, namely phase I before disturbance, phase II just after disturbance, and phase III 24 h after disturbance as the bacterial generation time is ≤7 h. Cores from dune, berm, high-, mid-, and low-tide were examined for changes in distribution of total bacterial abundance, total direct viability (counts under aerobic and anaerobic conditions), culturability and biochemical parameters up to 40 cm depth. Results showed that bacterial abundance decreased by an order from 10(6) cells g(-1) sediment, while, viability reduced marginally. Culturability on different-strength nutrient broth increased by 155% during phase II. Changes in sedimentary proteins, carbohydrates, and lipids were marked at berm and dune and masked at other levels by tidal influence. Sedimentary ATP reduced drastically. During phase III, Pearson's correlation between these variables evolved from non-significant to significant level. Thus, simulated disturbance had a mixed effect on bacterial and biochemical variables of the sediments. It had a negative impact on bacterial abundance, viability and ATP but positive impact on culturability. Viability, culturability, and ATP could act as important indicators reflecting the disturbance in the system at short time intervals. Culturability, which improved by an order, could perhaps be a fraction that contributes to restoration of the system at bacterial level. This baseline information about the potential mining site could help in developing rational approach towards sustainable harnessing of resources with minimum damage to the ecosystem.

Reduced Diversity and High Sponge Abundance on a Sedimented Indo-Pacific Reef System: Implications for Future Changes in Environmental Quality

PubMed Central

Powell, Abigail; Smith, David J.; Hepburn, Leanne J.; Jones, Timothy; Berman, Jade; Jompa, Jamaluddin; Bell, James J.

2014-01-01

Although coral reef health across the globe is declining as a result of anthropogenic impacts, relatively little is known of how environmental variability influences reef organisms other than corals and fish. Sponges are an important component of coral reef fauna that perform many important functional roles and changes in their abundance and diversity as a result of environmental change has the potential to affect overall reef ecosystem functioning. In this study, we examined patterns of sponge biodiversity and abundance across a range of environments to assess the potential key drivers of differences in benthic community structure. We found that sponge assemblages were significantly different across the study sites, but were dominated by one species Lamellodysidea herbacea (42% of all sponges patches recorded) and that the differential rate of sediment deposition was the most important variable driving differences in abundance patterns. Lamellodysidea herbacea abundance was positively associated with sedimentation rates, while total sponge abundance excluding Lamellodysidea herbacea was negatively associated with rates of sedimentation. Overall variation in sponge assemblage composition was correlated with a number of variables although each variable explained only a small amount of the overall variation. Although sponge abundance remained similar across environments, diversity was negatively affected by sedimentation, with the most sedimented sites being dominated by a single sponge species. Our study shows how some sponge species are able to tolerate high levels of sediment and that any transition of coral reefs to more sedimented states may result in a shift to a low diversity sponge dominated system, which is likely to have subsequent effects on ecosystem functioning. PMID:24475041

A comparison of spectral mixture analysis an NDVI for ascertaining ecological variables

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wessman, Carol A.; Bateson, C. Ann; Curtiss, Brian; Benning, Tracy L.

1993-01-01

In this study, we compare the performance of spectral mixture analysis to the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in detecting change in a grassland across topographically-induced nutrient gradients and different management schemes. The Konza Prairie Research Natural Area, Kansas, is a relatively homogeneous tallgrass prairie in which change in vegetation productivity occurs with respect to topographic positions in each watershed. The area is the site of long-term studies of the influence of fire and grazing on tallgrass production and was the site of the First ISLSCP (International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project) Field Experiment (FIFE) from 1987 to 1989. Vegetation indices such as NDVI are commonly used with imagery collected in few (less than 10) spectral bands. However, the use of only two bands (e.g. NDVI) does not adequately account for the complex of signals making up most surface reflectance. Influences from background spectral variation and spatial heterogeneity may confound the direct relationship with biological or biophysical variables. High dimensional multispectral data allows for the application position of techniques such as derivative analysis and spectral curve fitting, thereby increasing the probability of successfully modeling the reflectance from mixed surfaces. The higher number of bands permits unmixing of a greater number of surface components, separating the vegetation signal for further analyses relevant to biological variables.

Achieving success in intervention studies: an analysis of variable staff engagement across three midwifery settings.

PubMed

Henderson, Amanda; Schoonbeek, Sue; Ossenberg, Christine; Caddick, Alison; Wing, Diane; Capell, Lorna; Gould, Karen

2014-06-01

To critically analyse the success of staff's behaviour changes in the practice setting. Facilitators were employed to initiate and facilitate a four-step process (optimism, overcoming obstacles, oversight and reinforcing outcomes) that fostered development of behaviours consistent with learning in everyday practice. Many studies seek to engage staff in workplace behaviour improvement. The success of such studies is highly variable. Little is known about the work of the facilitator in ensuring success. Understanding the contextual factors that contribute to effective facilitation of workplace improvement is essential to ensure best use of resources. Mixed methods Facilitators employed a four-step process - optimism, overcoming obstacles, oversight and reinforcing outcomes - to stage behaviour change implementation. The analysis of staff engagement in behaviour changes was assessed through weekly observation of workplaces, informal discussions with staff and facilitator diaries. The impact of behaviour change was informed through pre- and postsurveys on staff's perception across three midwifery sites. Surveys measured (1) midwives' perception of support for their role in facilitating learning (Support Instrument for Nurses Facilitating the Learning of Others) and (2) development of a learning culture in midwifery practice settings (Clinical Learning Organisational Culture Survey). Midwives across three sites completed the presurvey (n = 216) and postsurvey (n = 90). Impact varied according to the degree that facilitators were able to progress teams through four stages necessary for change (OOORO). Statistically significant results were apparent in two subscales important for supporting staff, namely teamwork and acknowledgement; in the two areas, facilitators worked through 'obstacles' and coached staff in performing the desired behaviours and rewarded them for their success. Elements of the learning culture also statistically improved in one site. Findings suggest behaviour change success is dependent on facilitators to systematically engage staff through all four stages of implementation. It is important that investment is made to commitment and resources to all four stages before embarking on change processes. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Techniques for detecting effects of urban and rural land-use practices on stream-water chemistry in selected watersheds in Texas, Minnesota,and Illinois

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walker, J.F.

1993-01-01

Selected statistical techniques were applied to three urban watersheds in Texas and Minnesota and three rural watersheds in Illinois. For the urban watersheds, single- and paired-site data-collection strategies were considered. The paired-site strategy was much more effective than the singlesite strategy for detecting changes. Analysis of storm load regression residuals demonstrated the potential utility of regressions for variability reduction. For the rural watersheds, none of the selected techniques were effective at identifying changes, primarily due to a small degree of management-practice implementation, potential errors introduced through the estimation of storm load, and small sample sizes. A Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis was used to determine the percent change in water chemistry that could be detected for each watershed. In most instances, the use of regressions improved the ability to detect changes.

Analysis of European ozone trends in the period 1995-2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Yingying; Pozzer, Andrea; Ojha, Narendra; Lin, Jintai; Lelieveld, Jos

2018-04-01

Surface-based measurements from the EMEP and Airbase networks are used to estimate the changes in surface ozone levels during the 1995-2014 period over Europe. We find significant ozone enhancements (0.20-0.59 µg m-3 yr-1 for the annual means; P-value < 0.01 according to an F-test) over the European suburban and urban stations during 1995-2012 based on the Airbase sites. For European background ozone observed at EMEP sites, it is shown that a significantly decreasing trend in the 95th percentile ozone concentrations has occurred, especially at noon (0.9 µg m-3 yr-1; P-value < 0.01), while the 5th percentile ozone concentrations continued to increase with a trend of 0.3 µg m-3 yr-1 (P-value < 0.01) during the study period. With the help of numerical simulations performed with the global chemistry-climate model EMAC, the importance of anthropogenic emissions changes in determining these changes over background sites are investigated. The EMAC model is found to successfully capture the observed temporal variability in mean ozone concentrations, as well as the contrast in the trends of 95th and 5th percentile ozone over Europe. Sensitivity simulations and statistical analysis show that a decrease in European anthropogenic emissions had contrasting effects on surface ozone trends between the 95th and 5th percentile levels and that background ozone levels have been influenced by hemispheric transport, while climate variability generally regulated the inter-annual variations of surface ozone in Europe.

Modeling drivers of phosphorus loads in Chesapeake Bay tributaries and inferences about long-term change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ryberg, Karen R.; Blomquist, Joel; Sprague, Lori A.; Sekellick, Andrew J.; Keisman, Jennifer

2018-01-01

Causal attribution of changes in water quality often consists of correlation, qualitative reasoning, listing references to the work of others, or speculation. To better support statements of attribution for water-quality trends, structural equation modeling was used to model the causal factors of total phosphorus loads in the Chesapeake Bay watershed. By transforming, scaling, and standardizing variables, grouping similar sites, grouping some causal factors into latent variable models, and using methods that correct for assumption violations, we developed a structural equation model to show how causal factors interact to produce total phosphorus loads. Climate (in the form of annual total precipitation and the Palmer Hydrologic Drought Index) and anthropogenic inputs are the major drivers of total phosphorus load in the Chesapeake Bay watershed. Increasing runoff due to natural climate variability is offsetting purposeful management actions that are otherwise decreasing phosphorus loading; consequently, management actions may need to be reexamined to achieve target reductions in the face of climate variability.

Multi-decadal analysis reveals contrasting patterns of resilience and decline in coral assemblages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanner, Jason E.

2017-12-01

A 50-yr study of coral dynamics at Heron Island, on Australia's Great Barrier Reef, shows that community change on a single reef is highly variable and that while some areas of the reef are in decline, others are recovering well 40 yr after a major cyclonic disturbance that eliminated all corals in the study plot. At one site, the genus-level composition in 2012 was identical to that before the cyclone, although it took around 30 yr to recover, and there were still differences at the species level. The colony size structure of some species at this site, notably the dominant Acropora digitifera, which had over 40% cover in 2012, also recovered after 30 yr, although sub-dominant species still lacked large colonies even after 40 yr. Given the small scale of the individual study plots (1 m2), this shows an unexpected degree of determinism in assemblage structure. At a second site, however, both composition and size structure changed dramatically over the last 40 yr of the study as both external and internal factors altered local environmental conditions. At both sites, major changes in composition appear to be related to drying out of the reef crest due to changes in flow regimes and/or natural accretion. At the site that has recovered, erosion has reversed this drying out, whereas no such erosion has occurred at the second site. If such erosion occurs, or sea levels increase due to global warming, then the second site may also prove to be resilient over decadal time scales.

Precipitation and lake-level changes in the West and Midwest over the past 10,000 to 24,000 years. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Webb, T. III; Street, F.A.; Howe, S.

The goal of the research described in this report is to document the climatic variability over the past 10,000 to 20,000 years in areas in which sites may be designated for the burial of nuclear wastes. Three separate data sets were studied, and the results are presented in three chapters. The first data set consisted of radiocarbon dates documenting past changes in lake levels in lakes and playas in the western United States. The sites were mapped where water levels were higher than the levels today and were presented in a table telling what evidence is available at each site.more » The lake-level fluctuations for the past 24,000 years at sites in the West were also mapped and time series for these fluctuations at four sites were presented. The second data set was a selection of the published radiocarbon-dated pollen diagrams from the western United States. These data are a valuable source of climatic information and complement the geological evidence of lake-level fluctuations in the West. A table is presented that gives the location, elevation, and number of radiocarbon dates for each site. The third data set was a set of fossil pollen data from 20 sites in the upper Midwest. These data were calibrated in terms of precipitation changes over the past 10,000 years, and maps are presented of the estimated precipitation changes between 10,000 and 7000 years ago and between 7000 years ago and today.« less

Design tradeoffs for trend assessment in aquatic biological monitoring programs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gurtz, Martin E.; Van Sickle, John; Carlisle, Daren M.; Paulsen, Steven G.

2013-01-01

Assessments of long-term (multiyear) temporal trends in biological monitoring programs are generally undertaken without an adequate understanding of the temporal variability of biological communities. When the sources and levels of variability are unknown, managers cannot make informed choices in sampling design to achieve monitoring goals in a cost-effective manner. We evaluated different trend sampling designs by estimating components of both short- and long-term variability in biological indicators of water quality in streams. Invertebrate samples were collected from 32 sites—9 urban, 6 agricultural, and 17 relatively undisturbed (reference) streams—distributed throughout the United States. Between 5 and 12 yearly samples were collected at each site during the period 1993–2008, plus 2 samples within a 10-week index period during either 2007 or 2008. These data allowed calculation of four sources of variance for invertebrate indicators: among sites, among years within sites, interaction among sites and years (site-specific annual variation), and among samples collected within an index period at a site (residual). When estimates of these variance components are known, changes to sampling design can be made to improve trend detection. Design modifications that result in the ability to detect the smallest trend with the fewest samples are, from most to least effective: (1) increasing the number of years in the sampling period (duration of the monitoring program), (2) decreasing the interval between samples, and (3) increasing the number of repeat-visit samples per year (within an index period). This order of improvement in trend detection, which achieves the greatest gain for the fewest samples, is the same whether trends are assessed at an individual site or an average trend of multiple sites. In multiple-site surveys, increasing the number of sites has an effect similar to that of decreasing the sampling interval; the benefit of adding sites is greater when a new set of different sites is selected for each sampling effort than when the same sites are sampled each time. Understanding variance components of the ecological attributes of interest can lead to more cost-effective monitoring designs to detect trends.

Phytoplankton dynamics of a subtropical reservoir controlled by the complex interplay among hydrological, abiotic, and biotic variables.

PubMed

Kuo, Yi-Ming; Wu, Jiunn-Tzong

2016-12-01

This study was conducted to identify the key factors related to the spatiotemporal variations in phytoplankton abundance in a subtropical reservoir from 2006 to 2010 and to assist in developing strategies for water quality management. Dynamic factor analysis (DFA), a dimension-reduction technique, was used to identify interactions between explanatory variables (i.e., environmental variables) and abundance (biovolume) of predominant phytoplankton classes. The optimal DFA model significantly described the dynamic changes in abundances of predominant phytoplankton groups (including dinoflagellates, diatoms, and green algae) at five monitoring sites. Water temperature, electrical conductivity, water level, nutrients (total phosphorus, NO 3 -N, and NH 3 -N), macro-zooplankton, and zooplankton were the key factors affecting the dynamics of aforementioned phytoplankton. Therefore, transformations of nutrients and reactions between water quality variables and aforementioned processes altered by hydrological conditions may also control the abundance dynamics of phytoplankton, which may represent common trends in the DFA model. The meandering shape of Shihmen Reservoir and its surrounding rivers caused a complex interplay between hydrological conditions and abiotic and biotic variables, resulting in phytoplankton abundance that could not be estimated using certain variables. Additional water quality and hydrological variables at surrounding rivers and monitoring plans should be executed a few days before and after reservoir operations and heavy storm, which would assist in developing site-specific preventive strategies to control phytoplankton abundance.

Projections of change in key ecosystem indicators for planning and management of marine protected areas: An example study for European seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kay, Susan; Butenschön, Momme

2018-02-01

Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) are widely used as tools to maintain biodiversity, protect habitats and ensure that development is sustainable. If MPAs are to maintain their role into the future it is important for managers to understand how conditions at these sites may change as a result of climate change and other drivers, and this understanding needs to extend beyond temperature to a range of key ecosystem indicators. This case study demonstrates how spatially-aggregated model results for multiple variables can provide useful projections for MPA planners and managers. Conditions in European MPAs have been projected for the 2040s using unmitigated and globally managed scenarios of climate change and river management, and hence high and low emissions of greenhouse gases and riverborne nutrients. The results highlight the vulnerability of potential refuge sites in the north-west Mediterranean and the need for careful monitoring at MPAs to the north and west of the British Isles, which may be affected by changes in Atlantic circulation patterns. The projections also support the need for more MPAs in the eastern Mediterranean and Adriatic Sea, and can inform the selection of sites.

Health assessments of brown pelican (Pelecanus occidentalis) nestlings from colonies in South Carolina and Georgia, U.S.A.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ferguson, L.M.; Norton, Terry M.; Cray, Carolyn; Oliva, M.; Jodice, Patrick G.R.

2014-01-01

Health evaluations of brown pelican (Pelecanus occidentalis) nestlings from three colonies along the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States were performed in 2005, 2007, and 2008. The primary objective of this study was to establish baseline data for hematologic, biochemical, and serologic values from a relatively healthy population of free-living pelicans during early chick development. Relationships among health variables and colony site, ectoparasite infestation, sex, and body condition index were also evaluated. Reference intervals are presented for health variables, including novel analytes for the species, as well as a comparison of these results with previously published values for wild pelicans. No significant relationships were found between health variables and nestling sex or body condition; however, differences between colony sites and the presence of ectoparasites were detected. The inclusion of health assessments as a regular component of management programs for seabirds can provide data to better understand the effect to species of concern when drastic changes occur to the population and its environment.

Constraining 20th Century Pacific Trade-Wind Variability Using Coral Mn/Ca

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sayani, H. R.; Thompson, D. M.; Carilli, J.; Ireland, T. J.; Cobb, K. M.; Atwood, A. R.; Grothe, P. R.; Miller, S. J.; Hitt, N. T.; O'Connor, G.

2017-12-01

Global mean surface temperatures during the 20th century are characterized by multidecadal periods of either accelerated or reduced rates of warming that cannot be explained by external forcings alone. Both observations and modeling studies suggest that the reduced rate of global surface warming during the early-2000s can be largely explained by decadal climate variability in the tropical Pacific, specifically changes in trade-wind strength [e.g. Meehl et al., 2016]. However, the relationship between Pacific trade-wind strength and global surface warming is poorly constrained due to the lack of instrumental wind observations prior to the 1970s. Surface corals are now routinely used to generate records of past sea-surface temperature (SST) change, and have dramatically improved our understanding of oceanic variability in the tropical Pacific. Yet, there are few direct measurements of the atmospheric response to this SST variability. Skeletal Mn/Ca ratios in corals from Tarawa Atoll (1.3˚N, 173˚E) have been shown to track El Niño-related westerly wind events on interannual timescales [Shen et al., 1992], and the strength of Pacific trade winds on decadal timescales [Thompson et al., 2015]. Here, we investigate the utility of this novel wind proxy at Kiritimati Atoll (Christmas Island; 2˚N, 157.5˚W), a site that is hydrographically similar to Tarawa. We use a series of seawater samples collected across the 2015/16 El Niño to characterize and quantify the relationship between westerly wind events and seawater Mn variability around Kiritimati. Anchored by this modern-day calibration, we present a new reconstruction of westerly winds across the late-20thcentury from Kiritimati Atoll. We also assess the reproducibility of coral Mn/Ca across cores collected at varying distances from the lagoon, which represents the primary source of seawater Mn to the reef at our site. Lastly, we discuss the strengths and limitations of this novel proxy, as well as the potential for its application to corals from other sites across the tropical Pacific. ReferencesMeehl, et al., (2016), Nature Climate change, doi:10.1038/nclimate3107. Shen, et al., (1992), J. Geophys. Res. Oceans, doi:10.1029/92JC00951. Thompson, et al., (2015), Nature Geoscience, doi:10.1038/ngeo2321.

Status of vulnerable Cystoseira populations along the Italian infralittoral fringe, and relationships with environmental and anthropogenic variables.

PubMed

Mancuso, F P; Strain, E M A; Piccioni, E; De Clerck, O; Sarà, G; Airoldi, L

2018-04-01

We analyzed the occurrence and status of infralittoral fringe populations of Cystoseira spp. (Fucales) at thirteen rocky sites around the Italian coastline, and explored the relationships with relevant environmental and anthropogenic variables. We found Cystoseira populations at 11 sites: most were scattered and comprised monospecific stands of C. compressa, and only 6 sites also supported sparse specimens of either C. amentacea var. stricta or C. brachycarpa. Coastal human population density, Chlorophyll a seawater concentrations, sea surface temperature, annual range of sea surface temperature and wave fetch explained most of the variation of the status of C. compressa. We hypothesize a generally unhealthy state of the Italian Cystoseira infralittoral fringe populations and identify multiple co-occurring anthropogenic stressors as the likely drivers of these poor conditions. Extensive baseline monitoring is needed to describe how Cystoseira populations are changing, and implement a management framework for the conservation of these valuable but vulnerable habitats. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The cultivation of energy crops for biogas production and the application of digestates are characterized by high variability of CO2 exchange and soil organic C stock changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Augustin, Juergen; Fiedler, Sebastian; Heintze, Gawan; Rohwer, Marcus; Prescher, Anne-Katrin; Pohl, Madlen; Jurisch, Nicole; Hagemann, Ulrike

2017-04-01

In Germany, agricultural production accounts for approx. 15% of total anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The cultivation of energy crops is thus considered an important option to reduce the climate impact and maintain or increase soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks. In particular, this applies to the continuously expanding cultivation of energy crops for biogas production and the associated use of residues from anaerobic digestion (digestates) as organic fertilizer. To date, there is only limited and contradicting evidence on the impacts of this management practice on the CO2 exchange as well as the change of SOC stocks. We will present results from a 4-year field study at 5 sites in Germany using identical methods to investigate the interacting effects of i) 3 N-fertilizer treatments including calcium ammonium nitrate and digestates and ii) a crop rotation of 7 energy crops like maize, sorghum, triticale, and wheat on net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) and the change of SOC stocks. We used the manual chamber approach for measuring NEE as the difference between gross primary production and ecosystem respiration. The determination of SOC stock changes was based on a C budget approach, which includes the cumulated annual NEE, the C export by harvest, and the C import by application of anaerobic digestates. The CO2 exchange and the change of SOC stocks were influenced by multiple factors like crop, site, fertilization, and climate, as well as their complex interactions. A large proportion of the variability of the CO2 exchange can be attributed to interannual climatic variability. Productive crops like maize and sorghum generally feature the most intensive CO2 exchange, while less productive crops can compensate for this by means of longer cultivation times. Regardless of the extreme variability, pronounced and partly significant differences of NEE and C budgets between sites were observed. On average, SOC stocks declined over a full crop rotation, but with highly variable positive and negative C budgets. This indicates that, in most cases, neither the selected crops nor the application of anaerobic digestates were sufficient to compensate for SOC losses. Apparently, the potential of anaerobic digestates to maintain or increase SOC stocks is considerably smaller than expected. If continuous decreases of SOC stocks due to energy crop cultivation are to be avoided, additional studies on the optimization of crop rotations (selection of plants with high C input), and digestate fertilization (type of digestate, amount and application technique) are required. A continuously improved version of the methodology used in this study promises faster and more precise results than classic long-term field trials.

Variability in Lotic Communities in Three Contrasting Stream Environments in the Santa Ana River Basin, California, 1999-2001

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burton, Carmen A.

2008-01-01

Biotic communities and environmental conditions can be highly variable between natural ecosystems. The variability of natural assemblages should be considered in the interpretation of any ecological study when samples are either spatially or temporally distributed. Little is known about biotic variability in the Santa Ana River Basin. In this report, the lotic community and habitat assessment data from ecological studies done as part of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) program are used for a preliminary assessment of variability in the Santa Ana Basin. Habitat was assessed, and benthic algae, benthic macroinvertebrate, and fish samples were collected at four sites during 1999-2001. Three of these sites were sampled all three years. One of these sites is located in the San Bernardino Mountains, and the other two sites are located in the alluvial basin. Analysis of variance determined that the three sites with multiyear data were significantly different for 41 benthic algae metrics and 65 macroinvertebrate metrics and fish communities. Coefficients of variation (CVs) were calculated for the habitat measurements, metrics of benthic algae, and macroinvertebrate data as measures of variability. Annual variability of habitat data was generally greater at the mountain site than at the basin sites. The mountain site had higher CVs for water temperature, depth, velocity, canopy angle, streambed substrate, and most water-quality variables. In general, CVs of most benthic algae metrics calculated from the richest-targeted habitat (RTH) samples were greater at the mountain site. In contrast, CVs of most benthic algae metrics calculated from depositional-targeted habitat (DTH) samples were lower at the mountain site. In general, CVs of macroinvertebrate metrics calculated from qualitative multihabitat (QMH) samples were lower at the mountain site. In contrast, CVs of many metrics calculated from RTH samples were greater at the mountain site than at one of the basin sites. Fish communities were more variable at the basin sites because more species were present at these sites. Annual variability of benthic algae metrics was related to annual variability in habitat variables. The CVs of benthic algae metrics related to the most CVs of habitat variables included QMH taxon richness, the RTH percentage richness, RTH abundance of tolerant taxa, RTH percentage richness of halophilic diatoms, RTH percentage abundance of sestonic diatoms, DTH percentage richness of nitrogen heterotrophic diatoms, and DTH pollution tolerance index. The CVs of macroinvertebrate metrics related to the most CVs of habitat variables included the RTH trichoptera, RTH EPT, RTH scraper richness, RTH nonchironomid dipteran abundance (in percent), and RTH EPA (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency) tolerance, which is based on abundance. Many of the CVs of habitat variables related to CVs of macroinvertebrate metrics were the same habitat variables that were related to the CVs of benthic algae metrics. On the basis of these results, annual variability may have a role in the relationship of benthic algae and macroinvertebrates assemblages with habitat and water quality in the Santa Ana Basin. This report provides valuable baseline data on the variability of biological communities in the Santa Ana Basin.

Habitat characteristics of American woodcock nest sites on a managed area in Maine

USGS Publications Warehouse

McAuley, D.G.; Longcore, J.R.; Sepik, G.F.; Pendleton, G.W.

1996-01-01

We measured characteristics of habitat near 89 nests of American woodcock (Scolopax minor) and 100 randomly selected points on Moosehorn National Wildlife Refuge, Calais, Maine, an area managed for woodcock. At nest sites, basal area was lower (P 0.05) or between sites of successful nests and nests destroyed by predators, although the large variances of the variables reduced our power to detect differences. Habitat around sites of renests differed from sites of first nests. Sites around first nests had lower basal area of dead trees (P = 0.05) and higher stem densities of aspen (P = 0.03) and cherry saplings (P = 0.001), and viburnum (P = 0.05), while renest sites had taller trees (P = 0.02). The change from nest sites in areas dominated by alders and tree-size gray birch used in 1977-80 to sites dominated by sapling trees, especially aspen, used during 1987-90 suggests that woodcock in the expanding population at the refuge are selecting nest sites created by habitat management since 1979.

Effects of Climatic Conditions and Management Practices on Agricultural Carbon and Water Budgets in the Inland Pacific Northwest USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chi, Jinshu; Waldo, Sarah; Pressley, Shelley N.; Russell, Eric S.; O'Keeffe, Patrick T.; Pan, William L.; Huggins, David R.; Stöckle, Claudio O.; Brooks, Erin S.; Lamb, Brian K.

2017-12-01

Cropland is an important land cover influencing global carbon and water cycles. Variability of agricultural carbon and water fluxes depends on crop species, management practices, soil characteristics, and climatic conditions. In the context of climate change, it is critical to quantify the long-term effects of these environmental drivers and farming activities on carbon and water dynamics. Twenty site-years of carbon and water fluxes covering a large precipitation gradient and a variety of crop species and management practices were measured in the inland Pacific Northwest using the eddy covariance method. The rain-fed fields were net carbon sinks, while the irrigated site was close to carbon neutral during the winter wheat crop years. Sites growing spring crops were either carbon sinks, sources, or neutral, varying with crops, rainfall zones, and tillage practices. Fluxes were more sensitive to variability in precipitation than temperature: annual carbon and water fluxes increased with the increasing precipitation while only respiration increased with temperature in the high-rainfall area. Compared to a nearby rain-fed site, irrigation improved winter wheat production but resulted in large losses of carbon and water to the atmosphere. Compared to conventional tillage, no-till had significantly lower respiration but resulted in slightly lower yields and water use efficiency over 4 years. Under future climate change, it is expected that more carbon fixation by crops and evapotranspiration would occur in a warmer and wetter environment.

Regional comparison of tundra carbon budget response over the Alaska North Slope to varying environmental conditions as informed by in situ and flux tower measurements, remote sensing and biophysical modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shirley, S.; Watts, J. D.; Kimball, J. S.; Zhang, Z.; Poulter, B.; Klene, A. E.; Jones, L. A.; Kim, Y.; Oechel, W. C.; Zona, D.; Euskirchen, E. S.

2017-12-01

A warming Arctic climate is contributing to shifts in landscape moisture and temperature regimes, a shortening of the non-frozen season, and increases in the depth of annual active layer. The changing environmental conditions make it difficult to determine whether tundra ecosystems are a carbon sink or source. At present, eddy covariance flux towers and biophysical measurements within the tower footprint provide the most direct assessment of change to the tundra carbon balance. However, these measurements have a limited spatial footprint and exist over relatively short timescales. Thus, terrestrial ecosystem models are needed to provide an improved understanding of how changes in landscape environmental conditions impact regional carbon fluxes. This study examines the primary drivers thought to affect the magnitude and variability of tundra-atmosphere CO2 and CH4 fluxes over the Alaska North Slope. Also investigated is the ability of biophysical models to capture seasonal flux characteristics over the 9 tundra tower sites examined. First, we apply a regression tree approach to ascertain which remotely sensed environmental variables best explain observed variability in the tower fluxes. Next, we compare flux estimates obtained from multiple process models including Terrestrial Carbon Flux (TCF) and the Lund-Potsdam-Jena Wald Schnee und Landschaft (LPJ-wsl), and Soil Moisture Active Passive Level 4 Carbon (SMAP L4_C) products. Our results indicate that out of 7 variables examined vegetation greenness, temperature, and moisture are more significant predictors of carbon flux magnitude over the tundra tower sites. This study found that satellite data-driven models, due to the ability of remote sensing instruments to capture the physical principles and processes driving tundra carbon flux, are more effective at estimating the magnitude and spatiotemporal variability of CO2 and CH4 fluxes in northern high latitude ecosystems.

Parametric vs. non-parametric daily weather generator: validation and comparison

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dubrovsky, Martin

2016-04-01

As the climate models (GCMs and RCMs) fail to satisfactorily reproduce the real-world surface weather regime, various statistical methods are applied to downscale GCM/RCM outputs into site-specific weather series. The stochastic weather generators are among the most favourite downscaling methods capable to produce realistic (observed like) meteorological inputs for agrological, hydrological and other impact models used in assessing sensitivity of various ecosystems to climate change/variability. To name their advantages, the generators may (i) produce arbitrarily long multi-variate synthetic weather series representing both present and changed climates (in the latter case, the generators are commonly modified by GCM/RCM-based climate change scenarios), (ii) be run in various time steps and for multiple weather variables (the generators reproduce the correlations among variables), (iii) be interpolated (and run also for sites where no weather data are available to calibrate the generator). This contribution will compare two stochastic daily weather generators in terms of their ability to reproduce various features of the daily weather series. M&Rfi is a parametric generator: Markov chain model is used to model precipitation occurrence, precipitation amount is modelled by the Gamma distribution, and the 1st order autoregressive model is used to generate non-precipitation surface weather variables. The non-parametric GoMeZ generator is based on the nearest neighbours resampling technique making no assumption on the distribution of the variables being generated. Various settings of both weather generators will be assumed in the present validation tests. The generators will be validated in terms of (a) extreme temperature and precipitation characteristics (annual and 30 years extremes and maxima of duration of hot/cold/dry/wet spells); (b) selected validation statistics developed within the frame of VALUE project. The tests will be based on observational weather series from several European stations available from the ECA&D database.

Using diatom assemblages to assess urban stream conditions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walker, C.E.; Pan, Y.

2006-01-01

We characterized changes in diatom assemblages along an urban-to-rural gradient to assess impacts of urbanization on stream conditions. Diatoms, water chemistry, and physical variables of riffles at 19 urban and 28 rural stream sites were sampled and assessed during the summer base flow period. Near stream land use was characterized using GIS. In addition, one urban and one rural site were sampled monthly throughout a year to assess temporal variation of diatom assemblages between the urban and rural stream sites. Canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) showed that the 1st ordination axis distinctly separated rural and urban sites. This axis was correlated with conductivity (r = 0.75) and % near-stream commercial/industrial land use (r = 0.55). TWINSPAN classified all sites into four groups based on diatom assemblages. These diatom-based site groups were significantly different in water chemistry (e.g., conductivity, dissolved nutrients), physical habitat (e.g., % stream substrate as fines), and near-stream land use. CCA on the temporal diatom data set showed that diatom assemblages had high seasonal variation along the 2nd axis in both urban and rural sites, however, rural and urban sites were well separated along the 1st ordination axis. Our results suggest that changes in diatom assemblages respond to urban impacts on stream conditions. ?? Springer 2006.

Determinants of extinction-colonization dynamics in Mediterranean butterflies: the role of landscape, climate and local habitat features.

PubMed

Fernández-Chacón, Albert; Stefanescu, Constantí; Genovart, Meritxell; Nichols, James D; Hines, James E; Páramo, Ferran; Turco, Marco; Oro, Daniel

2014-01-01

Many species are found today in the form of fragmented populations occupying patches of remnant habitat in human-altered landscapes. The persistence of these population networks requires a balance between extinction and colonization events assumed to be primarily related to patch area and isolation, but the contribution of factors such as the characteristics of patch and matrix habitats, the species' traits (habitat specialization and dispersal capabilities) and variation in climatic conditions have seldom been evaluated simultaneously. The identification of environmental variables associated with patch occupancy and turnover may be especially useful to enhance the persistence of multiple species under current global change. However, for robust inference on occupancy and related parameters, we must account for detection errors, a commonly overlooked problem that leads to biased estimates and misleading conclusions about population dynamics. Here, we provide direct empirical evidence of the effects of different environmental variables on the extinction and colonization rates of a rich butterfly community in the western Mediterranean. The analysis was based on a 17-year data set containing detection/nondetection data on 73 butterfly species for 26 sites in north-eastern Spain. Using multiseason occupancy models, which take into account species' detectability, we were able to obtain robust estimates of local extinction and colonization probabilities for each species and test the potential effects of site covariates such as the area of suitable habitat, topographic variability, landscape permeability around the site and climatic variability in aridity conditions. Results revealed a general pattern across species with local habitat composition and landscape features as stronger predictors of occupancy dynamics compared with topography and local aridity. Increasing area of suitable habitat in a site strongly decreased local extinction risks and, for a number of species, both higher amounts of suitable habitat and more permeable landscapes increased colonization rates. Nevertheless, increased topographic variability decreased the extinction risk of bad dispersers, a group of species with significantly lower colonization rates. Our models predicted higher sensitivity of the butterfly assemblages to deterministic changes in habitat features rather than to stochastic weather patterns, with some relationships being clearly dependent on the species' traits. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2013 British Ecological Society.

Changes in Equatorial Atlantic Ocean Thermohaline Circulation Across the Mid-Pleistocene Transition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yehudai, M.; Kim, J.; Seguí, M. J.; Goldstein, S. L.; Pena, L. D.; Haynes, L.; Hoenisch, B.; Farmer, J. R.; Ford, H. L.; Raymo, M. E.; Bickert, T.

2016-12-01

The Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT) marked a change in the duration of glacial-interglacial cycles from 41 to 100kyr between 1.3-0.7 Ma. A recent study (Pena and Goldstein, Science, 2014) from the Southern Atlantic Ocean found evidence for major disruptions in the global thermohaline circulation (THC) between MIS 25-21 ( 950-850ka), which may have triggered intensified glacial periods and the onset of the 100 kyr cycles. We report new Nd isotope data on Fe-Mn oxide encrusted foraminifera and fish debris from ODP Site 926 (3.719N, 42.908W, 3598m) between 1.2-0.4 Ma, in order to evaluate changes in the THC in the equatorial Atlantic, through comparison with North and South Atlantic sites. The ODP 926 ɛNd values fall in-between those in the North Atlantic (DSDP 607) and South Atlantic (ODP 1088 and 1090) throughout the studied interval, consistent with mixing between northern and southern end-members, and supporting the interpretation that the data represent the THC signal at this site. Pre-MPT data show smaller glacial-interglacial differences compared to the greater post-MPT glacial-interglacial variability. As Pena and Goldstein (2014) observed in the South Atlantic, during MIS 23 at 900 ka, ɛNd values do not shift significantly toward North Atlantic more negative values, consistent with a weak THC through this critical weak interglacial. Comparing ODP 926 and DSDP 607 data, ɛNd values converge during most interglacial peaks (excepting MIS 23) and diverge otherwise. This observation indicates that northern-sourced water masses dominate the site during peak interglacials, and confirms that the THC has been strongest during peak interglacials throughout the studied interval. Otherwise, diverging ɛNd values indicate a stronger southern-source signal and weaker northern-source signal at the ODP 926 site. This confirms that there was an active but variable THC system before, during, and after the MPT, with stronger deep water export from the North Atlantic during interglacials.

Organochlorines and metals induce changes in the mitochondria-rich cells of fish gills: an integrative field study involving chemical, biochemical and morphological analyses.

PubMed

Fernandes, M N; Paulino, M G; Sakuragui, M M; Ramos, C A; Pereira, C D S; Sadauskas-Henrique, H

2013-01-15

Through integrating chemical, biochemical and morphological analyses, this study investigated the effects of multiple pollutants on the gill mitochondria-rich cells (MRCs) in two fish species, Astyanax fasciatus and Pimelodus maculatus, collected from five sites (FU10, FU20, FU30, FU40 and FU50) in the Furnas Hydroelectric Power Station reservoir. Water analyses revealed aluminum, iron and zinc as well as organochlorine (aldrin/dieldrin, endosulfan, heptachlor/heptachlor epoxide and metolachlor) contamination at all of the sites, with the exception of FU10. Copper, chrome, iron and zinc were detected in the gills of both species, and aldrin/dieldrin, endosulfan and heptachlor/heptachlor epoxide were detected in the gills of fish from all of the sites, with the exception of FU10. Fish collected at FU20, FU30 and FU50 exhibited numerous alterations in the surface architecture of their pavement cells and MRCs. The surface MRC density and MRC fractional area were lower in fish from FU20, FU30, FU40 and FU50 than in those from the reference site (FU10) in the winter, and some variability between the sites was observed in the summer. The organochlorine contamination at FU20 and FU50 was associated with variable changes in the MRCs and inhibition of Na(+)/K(+)-ATPase (NKA) activity, especially in P. maculatus. At FU30, the alterations in the MRCs were associated with the contaminants present, especially metals. A multivariate analysis demonstrated a positive association between the biological responses of both species and environmental contamination, indicating that under realistic conditions, a mixture of organochlorines and metals affected the MRCs by inhibiting NKA activity and inducing morphological changes, which may cause an ionic imbalance. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lipunov, Vladimir M.; Kornilov, V.; Vlasenko, D.

On 2015 June 15, the Swift space observatory discovered that the Galactic black hole candidate V404 Cyg was undergoing another active X-ray phase, after 25 years of inactivity. The 12 telescopes of the MASTER Global Robotic Net located at six sites across four continents were the first ground-based observatories to start optical monitoring of the microquasar after its gamma-ray wake up at 18{sup h} 34{sup m} 09{sup s} U.T. on 2015 June 15. In this paper, we report, for the first time, the discovery of variable optical linear polarization, changing by 4%–6% over a timescale of ∼1 hr, on twomore » different epochs. We can conclude that the additional variable polarization arises from the relativistic jet generated by the black hole in V404 Cyg. The polarization variability correlates with optical brightness changes, increasing when the flux decreases.« less

Inflammatory myofibroblastic tumor of maxilla showing sarcomatous change in an edentulous site with a history of tooth extraction following periodontitis: A case report with discussion.

PubMed

Biniraj, K R; Janardhanan, Mahija

2014-05-01

Inflammatory myofibroblastic tumor (IMT) is a rare tumor of uncertain origin with variable biological behavior ranging from reactive lesions to highly aggressive malignancy. Oral IMTs are extremely rare and only 25 cases had been reported so far. A case of IMT with sarcomatous transformation in an extraction site with a history of tooth extraction following tooth mobility of an upper left molar tooth is presented here. The tooth was extracted following a complaint of gingival swelling and mobility of tooth. Though malignant transformation in IMTs had been documented in the extra oral sites, wide search of associated literature suggests, this is the first case of oral IMT showing malignant change associated with gingiva. The case report attempts to highlight the variant possibilities of tooth mobility other than periodontitis and the importance of assessing the primary cause of such conditions.

Inflammatory myofibroblastic tumor of maxilla showing sarcomatous change in an edentulous site with a history of tooth extraction following periodontitis: A case report with discussion

PubMed Central

Biniraj, K. R.; Janardhanan, Mahija

2014-01-01

Inflammatory myofibroblastic tumor (IMT) is a rare tumor of uncertain origin with variable biological behavior ranging from reactive lesions to highly aggressive malignancy. Oral IMTs are extremely rare and only 25 cases had been reported so far. A case of IMT with sarcomatous transformation in an extraction site with a history of tooth extraction following tooth mobility of an upper left molar tooth is presented here. The tooth was extracted following a complaint of gingival swelling and mobility of tooth. Though malignant transformation in IMTs had been documented in the extra oral sites, wide search of associated literature suggests, this is the first case of oral IMT showing malignant change associated with gingiva. The case report attempts to highlight the variant possibilities of tooth mobility other than periodontitis and the importance of assessing the primary cause of such conditions. PMID:25024554

Soil property changes during loblolly pine production

Treesearch

R. Wayne Skaggs; Devendra M. Amatya; G.M. Chescheir; Christine D. Blanton

2006-01-01

Three watersheds, each approximately 25 ha, were instrumented to measure and record drainage rate, water table depth, rainfall and meteorological data. Data continuously collected on the site since 1988 include response of hydrologic and water quality variables for nearly all growth stages of a Loblolly pine plantation. Data for drainage outflow rates and water table...

Interannual influence of spring phenological transitions on the water use efficiency of forest ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, Jiaxin; Wang, Ying

2017-04-01

Climate change has significantly influenced the productivity of terrestrial ecosystems through water cycles. Understanding the phenological regulation mechanisms underlying coupled carbon-water cycles is important for improving ecological assessments and projecting terrestrial ecosystem responses and feedback to climate change. In this study, we present an analysis of the interannual relationships among flux-based spring phenological transitions (referred as photosynthetic onset) and water use efficiency (WUE) in North America and Europe using 166 site-years of data from 22 flux sites, including 10 deciduous broadleaf forest (DBF) and 12 evergreen needleleaf forest (ENF) ecosystems. We found that the WUE responses to variations in spring phenological transitions differed substantially across plant functional types (PFTs) and growth periods. During the early spring (defined as one month from spring onset) in the DBF ecosystem, photosynthetic onset dominated changes in WUE by dominating gross primary production (GPP), with one day of advanced onset increasing the WUE by 0.037 gC kg-1H2O in early spring. For the ENF sites, although advanced photosynthetic onset also significantly promoted GPP, earlier onset did not have a significant positive impact on WUE in early spring because it was not significantly correlated to evapotranspiration (ET), which is a more dominant factor for WUE than GPP across the ENF sites. Statistically significant correlations were not observed between interannual variability in photosynthetic onset and WUE for either the DBF or ENF ecosystems following a prolonged period after photosynthetic onset. For the DBF sites, the interannual variability of photosynthetic onset provided a better explanation of the variations in WUE (ca. 51.4%) compared with climatic factors, although this was only applicable to the early spring. For the ENF sites, photosynthetic onset variations did not provide a better explanation of the interannual WUE variations compared with climatic factors within any growth period. Notably, the negative correlation between the interannual variability of early spring WUE and photosynthetic onset gradually declined from boreal forests (r = -0.73) to subtropical Mediterranean forests (r = 0.35), indicating that the positive effect of earlier spring phenological transitions decreased or even reversed from cold climates to warm climates. This result suggests that the effect of the phenological regulatory mechanism on coupled carbon-water cycles is not only determined by the PFT but also by the habitat climate of an ecosystem. These observed differences between the ENF and DBF ecosystems will likely influence future phenological shifts related to competition for water and other resources in mixed species stands.

Macroinvertebrate assemblages in agricultural, mining, and urban tropical streams: implications for conservation and management.

PubMed

Mwedzi, Tongayi; Bere, Taurai; Mangadze, Tinotenda

2016-06-01

The study evaluated the response of macroinvertebrate assemblages to changes in water quality in different land-use settings in Manyame catchment, Zimbabwe. Four land-use categories were identified: forested commercial farming, communal farming, Great Dyke mining (GDM) and urban areas. Macroinvertebrate community structure and physicochemical variables data were collected in two seasons from 41 sites following standard methods. Although not environmentally threatening, urban and GDM areas were characterised by higher conductivity, total dissolved solids, salinity, magnesium and hardness. Chlorides, total phosphates, total nitrogen, calcium, potassium and sodium were significantly highest in urban sites whilst dissolved oxygen (DO) was significantly higher in the forested commercial faming and GDM sites. Macroinvertebrate communities followed the observed changes in water quality. Macroinvertebrates in urban sites indicated severe pollution (e.g. Chironomidae) whilst those in forested commercial farming sites and GDM sites indicated relatively clean water (e.g. Notonemouridae). Forested watersheds together with good farm management practices are important in mitigating impacts of urbanisation and agriculture. Strategies that reduce oxygen-depleting substances must be devised to protect the health of Zimbabwean streams. The study affirms the wider applicability of the South African Scoring System in different land uses.

BOREAS RSS-19 1996 CASI At-Sensor Radiance and Reflectance Images

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, John; Hall, Forrest G. (Editor); Nickerson, Jaime (Editor); Freemantle, Jim; Smith, David E. (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

The BOREAS RSS-19 team collected CASI images from the Chieftain Navaho aircraft in order to observe the seasonal change in the radiometric reflectance properties of the boreal forest landscape. CASI was deployed as a site-specific optical sensor as part of BOREAS. The overall objective of the CASI deployment was to observe the seasonal change in the radiometric reflectance properties of the boreal forest landscape. In 1996, image data were collected with CASI on 15 days during a field campaign between 18-July and 01 -August, primarily at flux tower sites located at study sites near Thompson, Manitoba, and Prince Albert, Saskatchewan. A variety of CASI data collection strategies were used to meet the following scientific objectives: 1) canopy bidirectional reflectance, 2) canopy biochemistry, 3) spatial variability, and 4) estimates of up and downwelling PAR spectral albedo, as well as changes along transects across lakes at the southern site and transects between the NSA and SSA. The images are stored as binary image files. The data files are available on a CD-ROM (see document number 20010000884) or from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC).

Air Quality and Meteorological Boundary Conditions during the MCMA-2003 Field Campaign

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sosa, G.; Arriaga, J.; Vega, E.; Magaña, V.; Caetano, E.; de Foy, B.; Molina, L. T.; Molina, M. J.; Ramos, R.; Retama, A.; Zaragoza, J.; Martínez, A. P.; Márquez, C.; Cárdenas, B.; Lamb, B.; Velasco, E.; Allwine, E.; Pressley, S.; Westberg, H.; Reyes, R.

2004-12-01

A comprehensive field campaign to characterize photochemical smog in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) was conducted during April 2003. An important number of equipment was deployed all around the urban core and its surroundings to measure gas and particles composition from the various sources and receptor sites. In addition to air quality measurements, meteorology variables were also taken by regular weather meteorological stations, tethered balloons, radiosondes, sodars and lidars. One important issue with regard to the field campaign was the characterization of the boundary conditions in order to feed meteorological and air quality models. Four boundary sites were selected to measure continuously criteria pollutants, VOC and meteorological variables at surface level. Vertical meteorological profiles were measured at three other sites : radiosondes in Tacubaya site were launched every six hours daily; tethered balloons were launched at CENICA and FES-Cuautitlan sites according to the weather conditions, and one sodar was deployed at UNAM site in the south of the city. Additionally to these measurements, two fixed meteorological monitoring networks deployed along the city were available to complement these measurements. In general, we observed that transport of pollutants from the city to the boundary sites changes every day, according to the coupling between synoptic and local winds. This effect were less important at elevated sites such as Cerro de la Catedral and ININ, where synoptic wind were more dominant during the field campaign. Also, local sources nearby boundary sites hide the influence of pollution coming from the city some days, particularly at the La Reforma site.

Actual evapotranspiration for a reference crop within measured and future changing climate periods in the Mediterranean region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Katerji, Nader; Rana, Gianfranco; Ferrara, Rossana Monica

2017-08-01

The study compares two formulas for calculating the daily evapotranspiration ET0 for a reference crop. The first formula was proposed by Allen et al. (AL), while the second one was proposed by Katerji and Perrier with the addition of the carbon dioxide (CO2) effect on evapotranspiration (KP). The study analyses the impact of the calculation by the two formulas on the irrigation requirement (IR). Both formulas are based on the Penman-Monteith equation but adopt different approaches for parameterising the canopy resistance r c . In the AL formula, r c is assumed constant and not sensitive to climate change, whereas in the KP formula, r c is first parameterised as a function of climatic variables, then ET0 is corrected for the air CO2 concentration. The two formulas were compared in two periods. The first period involves data from two sites in the Mediterranean region within a measured climate change period (1981-2006) when all the input climatic variables were measured. The second period (2070-2100) involves data from a future climate change period at one site when the input climatic variables were forecasted for two future climate scenarios (A2 and B2). The annual cumulated values of ET0 calculated by the AL formula are systematically lower than those determined by the KP formula. The differences between the ET0 estimation with the AL and KP formulas have a strong impact on the determination of the IR for the reference crop. In fact, for the two periods, the annual values of IR when ET0 is calculated by the AL formula are systematically lower than those calculated by the KP formula. For the actual measured climate change period, this reduction varied from 26 to 28 %, while for the future climate change period, it varied based on the scenario from 16 % (A2) to 20 % (B2).

Climate Inferences From Geothermal Measurements in South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gurza Fausto, Edmundo; Harris, Robert; Montenegro, Alvaro; Tassara, Andrés; Beltrami, Hugo

2013-04-01

We present the data and analysis of 26 borehole temperature logs from South America. The dataset consists of a combination of 15 new borehole logs measured during 2012 distributed between three sites in Chile. These sites are located near Vallenar, Sierra Gorda and Sierra Limon Verde. Six temperature logs were measured during 1994 at sites near Michilla, Mansa Mina and the region of El Loa (Springer et al., Tectonophysics, 1998). Four logs were obtained from the NOAA Paleoclimatology Borehole Database located in Villa Staff, Toquepala and Talara in Peru. These data were analyzed for climate variability signals of the surface temperature and changes in the earth's surface energy balance. The analysis suggests regionalized temperature changes in ground surface temperatures with anomalies ranging from -0.1 to -0.3 K for Vallenar, -0.2 to -0.9 K in Sierra Gorda and 0.0 to 0.5 K for Sierra Limon Verde. We place the results within the context of surface air temperature yearly means obtained from existing meteorological and proxy paleoclimatic data between Peru and Northern Chile. The use of geothermal measurements for climate variability studies provides a further understanding of the climatic and energy cycles of the Southern Hemisphere, where meteorological data can be scarce to non-existent. Analysis of borehole temperature data have contributed significantly to estimating the last millennium surface temperature changes. Additionally, recent analysis have contributed to evaluate the Earth's energy balance by providing a quantitative value for the energy absorbed by the continents in the later part of the 20th century. Knowledge of the surface energy flux is important for understanding the solid Earth - atmosphere boundary condition, land cover changes, and their impact on regional and global climate models.

Real-time monitoring of ischemic and contralateral brain pO2 during stroke by variable length multisite resonators

PubMed Central

Hou, Huagang; Li, Hongbin; Dong, Ruhong; Khan, Nadeem; Swartz, Harold

2014-01-01

Purpose Electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) oximetry using variable length multi-probe implantable resonator (IR), was used to investigate the temporal changes in the ischemic and contralateral brain pO2 during stroke in rats. Material and Methods The EPR signal to noise ratio (S/N) of the IR with four sensor loops at a depth of up to11 mm were compared with direct implantation of lithium phthalocyanine (LiPc, oximetry probe) deposits in vitro. These IRs were used to follow the temporal changes in pO2 at two sites in each hemisphere during ischemia induced by left middle cerebral artery occlusion (MCAO) in rats breathing 30% O2 or 100% O2. Results The S/N ratios of the IRs were significantly greater than the LiPc deposits. A similar pO2 at two sites in each hemisphere prior to the onset of ischemia was observed in rats breathing 30% O2. However, a significant decline in the pO2 of the left cortex and striatum occurred during ischemia but no change in the pO2 of the contralateral brain was observed. A significant increase in the pO2 of only the contralateral non-ischemic brain was observed in the rats breathing 100% O2. No significant difference in the infarct volume was evident between the animals breathing 30% O2 or 100% O2 during ischemia. Conclusions EPR oximetry with IRs can repeatedly assess temporal changes in the brain pO2 at four sites simultaneously during stroke. This oximetry approach can be used to test and develop interventions to rescue ischemic tissue by modulating cerebral pO2 during stroke. PMID:24629514

A comparison of regional flood frequency analysis approaches in a simulation framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ganora, D.; Laio, F.

2016-07-01

Regional frequency analysis (RFA) is a well-established methodology to provide an estimate of the flood frequency curve at ungauged (or scarcely gauged) sites. Different RFA approaches exist, depending on the way the information is transferred to the site of interest, but it is not clear in the literature if a specific method systematically outperforms the others. The aim of this study is to provide a framework wherein carrying out the intercomparison by building up a virtual environment based on synthetically generated data. The considered regional approaches include: (i) a unique regional curve for the whole region; (ii) a multiple-region model where homogeneous subregions are determined through cluster analysis; (iii) a Region-of-Influence model which defines a homogeneous subregion for each site; (iv) a spatially smooth estimation procedure where the parameters of the regional model vary continuously along the space. Virtual environments are generated considering different patterns of heterogeneity, including step change and smooth variations. If the region is heterogeneous, with the parent distribution changing continuously within the region, the spatially smooth regional approach outperforms the others, with overall errors 10-50% lower than the other methods. In the case of a step-change, the spatially smooth and clustering procedures perform similarly if the heterogeneity is moderate, while clustering procedures work better when the step-change is severe. To extend our findings, an extensive sensitivity analysis has been performed to investigate the effect of sample length, number of virtual stations, return period of the predicted quantile, variability of the scale parameter of the parent distribution, number of predictor variables and different parent distribution. Overall, the spatially smooth approach appears as the most robust approach as its performances are more stable across different patterns of heterogeneity, especially when short records are considered.

Nong Thale Pron - a key site from southern Thailand for studying monsoon variability during the past 15000 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bredberg, Camilla; Chawchai, Sakonvan; Chabangborn, Akkaneewut; Kylander, Malin; Fritz, Sherilyn; Reimer, Paula J.; Wohlfarth, Barbara

2014-05-01

Studies of marine sediments, cave speleothemes, annually laminated corals, and tree rings from Asian monsoon regions have added knowledge to our understanding of the factors that control inter-annual to millennial monsoon variability in the past and have provided important constraints for climate modeling scenarios. In contrast, the spatial and temporal pattern of sub-millennial scale monsoon variability and its impact on land cover in SE Asia are still unresolved. This shortcoming stems from the fact that temporally well-resolved paleo-environmental studies are missing from large parts of SE Asia, especially from Thailand. Given that global and regional climate models are increasingly using terrestrial paleo- data to test their performance, past changes in land cover are therefore important variables to better understand feedbacks between different Earth systems. We obtained sediments from Lake Nong Thale Pron, in southern Thailand (8º 10`N, 99 º23`E; 380 m.asl). The aim of our study is to reconstruct lake status changes and to evaluate whether the extent of these changes are linked to known shifts in monsoon intensity and variability. Preliminary results show that lake infilling started more than 15,000 years ago and that the sediments cover the last deglaciation and the Holocene. Current analyses include Itrax XRF core scanning, loss-on-ignition (LOI at 950 and 550ºC), CN elemental and isotopic composition. We expect that our results will be able to give a picture of how the lake's status has changed over time and whether the extent of these changes is linked to known shifts in monsoon intensity and variability.

Multi-Site and Multi-Variables Statistical Downscaling Technique in the Monsoon Dominated Region of Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, Firdos; Pilz, Jürgen

2016-04-01

South Asia is under the severe impacts of changing climate and global warming. The last two decades showed that climate change or global warming is happening and the first decade of 21st century is considered as the warmest decade over Pakistan ever in history where temperature reached 53 0C in 2010. Consequently, the spatio-temporal distribution and intensity of precipitation is badly effected and causes floods, cyclones and hurricanes in the region which further have impacts on agriculture, water, health etc. To cope with the situation, it is important to conduct impact assessment studies and take adaptation and mitigation remedies. For impact assessment studies, we need climate variables at higher resolution. Downscaling techniques are used to produce climate variables at higher resolution; these techniques are broadly divided into two types, statistical downscaling and dynamical downscaling. The target location of this study is the monsoon dominated region of Pakistan. One reason for choosing this area is because the contribution of monsoon rains in this area is more than 80 % of the total rainfall. This study evaluates a statistical downscaling technique which can be then used for downscaling climatic variables. Two statistical techniques i.e. quantile regression and copula modeling are combined in order to produce realistic results for climate variables in the area under-study. To reduce the dimension of input data and deal with multicollinearity problems, empirical orthogonal functions will be used. Advantages of this new method are: (1) it is more robust to outliers as compared to ordinary least squares estimates and other estimation methods based on central tendency and dispersion measures; (2) it preserves the dependence among variables and among sites and (3) it can be used to combine different types of distributions. This is important in our case because we are dealing with climatic variables having different distributions over different meteorological stations. The proposed model will be validated by using the (National Centers for Environmental Prediction / National Center for Atmospheric Research) NCEP/NCAR predictors for the period of 1960-1990 and validated for 1990-2000. To investigate the efficiency of the proposed model, it will be compared with the multivariate multiple regression model and with dynamical downscaling climate models by using different climate indices that describe the frequency, intensity and duration of the variables of interest. KEY WORDS: Climate change, Copula, Monsoon, Quantile regression, Spatio-temporal distribution.

Climate Variability and Ponderosa Pine Colonizations in Central Wyoming: Integrating Dendroecology and Dendroclimatology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lesser, M.; Wentzel, C.; Gray, S.; Jackson, S.

2007-12-01

Many tree species are predicted to expand into new territory over the coming decades in response to changing climate. By studying tree expansions over the last several centuries we can begin to understand the mechanisms underlying these changes and anticipate their consequences for forest management. Woody-plant demographics and decadal to multidecadal climate variability are often closely linked in semi-arid regions. Integrated tree-ring analysis, combining dendroecology and dendroclimatology to document, respectively, the demographic history of the population and the climatic history of the region, can reveal ecological dynamics in response to climate variability. We studied four small, disjunct populations of Pinus ponderosa in the Bighorn Basin of north-central Wyoming. These populations are located 30 to 100 kilometers from the nearest core populations of ponderosa pine in the western Bighorn Mountains. Packrat midden studies have shown that ponderosa pine colonized the western slopes of the Bighorn Range 1500 years ago, so the disjunct populations in the basin must be younger. All trees (living and dead) at each of the four disjunct populations were mapped, cored, and then aged using tree-ring based techniques. We obtained records of hydroclimatic variability from the Bighorn Basin using four tree-ring series from Pinus flexilis (3 sites) and Pseudotsuga menziesii (1 site). The four disjunct populations were all established within the past 500 years. Initially, the populations grew slowly with low recruitment rates until the early 19th century, when they experienced one or more large recruitment pulses. These pulses coincided with extended wet periods in the climate reconstruction. However, similar wet periods before the 19th Century were not accompanied by recruitment pulses, indicating that other factors (e.g., population density, genetic variability) are also important in colonization and expansion. We are currently obtaining genetic data and carrying out population modeling to differentiate the effects of population dynamics, genetic variability, and climate variability on recruitment and expansion of these populations.

Post-Disturbance Stability of Fish Assemblages Measured at Coarse Taxonomic Resolution Masks Change at Finer Scales.

PubMed

Ceccarelli, Daniela M; Emslie, Michael J; Richards, Zoe T

2016-01-01

Quantifying changes to coral reef fish assemblages in the wake of cyclonic disturbances is challenging due to spatial variability of damage inherent in such events. Often, fish abundance appears stable at one spatial scale (e.g. reef-wide), but exhibits substantial change at finer scales (e.g. site-specific decline or increase). Taxonomic resolution also plays a role; overall stability at coarse taxonomic levels (e.g. family) may mask species-level turnover. Here we document changes to reef fish communities after severe Tropical Cyclone Ita crossed Lizard Island, Great Barrier Reef. Coral and reef fish surveys were conducted concurrently before and after the cyclone at four levels of exposure to the prevailing weather. Coral cover declined across all exposures except sheltered sites, with the largest decline at exposed sites. There was no significant overall reduction in the total density, biomass and species richness of reef fishes between 2011 and 2015, but individual fish taxa (families and species) changed in complex and unpredictable ways. For example, more families increased in density and biomass than decreased following Cyclone Ita, particularly at exposed sites whilst more fish families declined at lagoon sites even though coral cover did not decline. All sites lost biomass of several damselfish species, and at most sites there was an increase in macroinvertivores and grazers. Overall, these results suggest that the degree of change measured at coarse taxonomic levels masked high species-level turnover, although other potential explanations include that there was no impact of the storm, fish assemblages were impacted but underwent rapid recovery or that there is a time lag before the full impacts become apparent. This study confirms that in high-complexity, high diversity ecosystems such as coral reefs, species level analyses are essential to adequately capture the consequences of disturbance events.

Post-Disturbance Stability of Fish Assemblages Measured at Coarse Taxonomic Resolution Masks Change at Finer Scales

PubMed Central

Ceccarelli, Daniela M.

2016-01-01

Quantifying changes to coral reef fish assemblages in the wake of cyclonic disturbances is challenging due to spatial variability of damage inherent in such events. Often, fish abundance appears stable at one spatial scale (e.g. reef-wide), but exhibits substantial change at finer scales (e.g. site-specific decline or increase). Taxonomic resolution also plays a role; overall stability at coarse taxonomic levels (e.g. family) may mask species-level turnover. Here we document changes to reef fish communities after severe Tropical Cyclone Ita crossed Lizard Island, Great Barrier Reef. Coral and reef fish surveys were conducted concurrently before and after the cyclone at four levels of exposure to the prevailing weather. Coral cover declined across all exposures except sheltered sites, with the largest decline at exposed sites. There was no significant overall reduction in the total density, biomass and species richness of reef fishes between 2011 and 2015, but individual fish taxa (families and species) changed in complex and unpredictable ways. For example, more families increased in density and biomass than decreased following Cyclone Ita, particularly at exposed sites whilst more fish families declined at lagoon sites even though coral cover did not decline. All sites lost biomass of several damselfish species, and at most sites there was an increase in macroinvertivores and grazers. Overall, these results suggest that the degree of change measured at coarse taxonomic levels masked high species-level turnover, although other potential explanations include that there was no impact of the storm, fish assemblages were impacted but underwent rapid recovery or that there is a time lag before the full impacts become apparent. This study confirms that in high-complexity, high diversity ecosystems such as coral reefs, species level analyses are essential to adequately capture the consequences of disturbance events. PMID:27285160

The Shifting Climate Portfolio of the Greater Yellowstone Area

PubMed Central

Sepulveda, Adam J.; Tercek, Michael T.; Al-Chokhachy, Robert; Ray, Andrew M.; Thoma, David P.; Hossack, Blake R.; Pederson, Gregory T.; Rodman, Ann W.; Olliff, Tom

2015-01-01

Knowledge of climatic variability at small spatial extents (< 50 km) is needed to assess vulnerabilities of biological reserves to climate change. We used empirical and modeled weather station data to test if climate change has increased the synchrony of surface air temperatures among 50 sites within the Greater Yellowstone Area (GYA) of the interior western United States. This important biological reserve is the largest protected area in the Lower 48 states and provides critical habitat for some of the world’s most iconic wildlife. We focused our analyses on temporal shifts and shape changes in the annual distributions of seasonal minimum and maximum air temperatures among valley-bottom and higher elevation sites from 1948–2012. We documented consistent patterns of warming since 1948 at all 50 sites, with the most pronounced changes occurring during the Winter and Summer when minimum and maximum temperature distributions increased. These shifts indicate more hot temperatures and less cold temperatures would be expected across the GYA. Though the shifting statistical distributions indicate warming, little change in the shape of the temperature distributions across sites since 1948 suggest the GYA has maintained a diverse portfolio of temperatures within a year. Spatial heterogeneity in temperatures is likely maintained by the GYA’s physiographic complexity and its large size, which encompasses multiple climate zones that respond differently to synoptic drivers. Having a diverse portfolio of temperatures may help biological reserves spread the extinction risk posed by climate change. PMID:26674185

The shifting climate portfolio of the Greater Yellowstone Area

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sepulveda, Adam; Tercek, Mike T; Al-Chokhachy, Robert K.; Ray, Andrew; Thoma, David P.; Hossack, Blake R.; Pederson, Gregory T.; Rodman, Ann; Olliff, Tom

2015-01-01

Knowledge of climatic variability at small spatial extents (< 50 km) is needed to assess vulnerabilities of biological reserves to climate change. We used empirical and modeled weather station data to test if climate change has increased the synchrony of surface air temperatures among 50 sites within the Greater Yellowstone Area (GYA) of the interior western United States. This important biological reserve is the largest protected area in the Lower 48 states and provides critical habitat for some of the world’s most iconic wildlife. We focused our analyses on temporal shifts and shape changes in the annual distributions of seasonal minimum and maximum air temperatures among valley-bottom and higher elevation sites from 1948–2012. We documented consistent patterns of warming since 1948 at all 50 sites, with the most pronounced changes occurring during the Winter and Summer when minimum and maximum temperature distributions increased. These shifts indicate more hot temperatures and less cold temperatures would be expected across the GYA. Though the shifting statistical distributions indicate warming, little change in the shape of the temperature distributions across sites since 1948 suggest the GYA has maintained a diverse portfolio of temperatures within a year. Spatial heterogeneity in temperatures is likely maintained by the GYA’s physiographic complexity and its large size, which encompasses multiple climate zones that respond differently to synoptic drivers. Having a diverse portfolio of temperatures may help biological reserves spread the extinction risk posed by climate change.

Interannual variability of ammonia concentrations over the United States: sources and implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schiferl, Luke D.; Heald, Colette L.; Van Damme, Martin; Clarisse, Lieven; Clerbaux, Cathy; Coheur, Pierre-François; Nowak, John B.; Neuman, J. Andrew; Herndon, Scott C.; Roscioli, Joseph R.; Eilerman, Scott J.

2016-09-01

The variability of atmospheric ammonia (NH3), emitted largely from agricultural sources, is an important factor when considering how inorganic fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations and nitrogen cycling are changing over the United States. This study combines new observations of ammonia concentration from the surface, aboard aircraft, and retrieved by satellite to both evaluate the simulation of ammonia in a chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) and identify which processes control the variability of these concentrations over a 5-year period (2008-2012). We find that the model generally underrepresents the ammonia concentration near large source regions (by 26 % at surface sites) and fails to reproduce the extent of interannual variability observed at the surface during the summer (JJA). Variability in the base simulation surface ammonia concentration is dominated by meteorology (64 %) as compared to reductions in SO2 and NOx emissions imposed by regulation (32 %) over this period. Introduction of year-to-year varying ammonia emissions based on animal population, fertilizer application, and meteorologically driven volatilization does not substantially improve the model comparison with observed ammonia concentrations, and these ammonia emissions changes have little effect on the simulated ammonia concentration variability compared to those caused by the variability of meteorology and acid-precursor emissions. There is also little effect on the PM2.5 concentration due to ammonia emissions variability in the summer when gas-phase changes are favored, but variability in wintertime emissions, as well as in early spring and late fall, will have a larger impact on PM2.5 formation. This work highlights the need for continued improvement in both satellite-based and in situ ammonia measurements to better constrain the magnitude and impacts of spatial and temporal variability in ammonia concentrations.

A potato model intercomparison across varying climates and productivity levels.

PubMed

Fleisher, David H; Condori, Bruno; Quiroz, Roberto; Alva, Ashok; Asseng, Senthold; Barreda, Carolina; Bindi, Marco; Boote, Kenneth J; Ferrise, Roberto; Franke, Angelinus C; Govindakrishnan, Panamanna M; Harahagazwe, Dieudonne; Hoogenboom, Gerrit; Naresh Kumar, Soora; Merante, Paolo; Nendel, Claas; Olesen, Jorgen E; Parker, Phillip S; Raes, Dirk; Raymundo, Rubi; Ruane, Alex C; Stockle, Claudio; Supit, Iwan; Vanuytrecht, Eline; Wolf, Joost; Woli, Prem

2017-03-01

A potato crop multimodel assessment was conducted to quantify variation among models and evaluate responses to climate change. Nine modeling groups simulated agronomic and climatic responses at low-input (Chinoli, Bolivia and Gisozi, Burundi)- and high-input (Jyndevad, Denmark and Washington, United States) management sites. Two calibration stages were explored, partial (P1), where experimental dry matter data were not provided, and full (P2). The median model ensemble response outperformed any single model in terms of replicating observed yield across all locations. Uncertainty in simulated yield decreased from 38% to 20% between P1 and P2. Model uncertainty increased with interannual variability, and predictions for all agronomic variables were significantly different from one model to another (P < 0.001). Uncertainty averaged 15% higher for low- vs. high-input sites, with larger differences observed for evapotranspiration (ET), nitrogen uptake, and water use efficiency as compared to dry matter. A minimum of five partial, or three full, calibrated models was required for an ensemble approach to keep variability below that of common field variation. Model variation was not influenced by change in carbon dioxide (C), but increased as much as 41% and 23% for yield and ET, respectively, as temperature (T) or rainfall (W) moved away from historical levels. Increases in T accounted for the highest amount of uncertainty, suggesting that methods and parameters for T sensitivity represent a considerable unknown among models. Using median model ensemble values, yield increased on average 6% per 100-ppm C, declined 4.6% per °C, and declined 2% for every 10% decrease in rainfall (for nonirrigated sites). Differences in predictions due to model representation of light utilization were significant (P < 0.01). These are the first reported results quantifying uncertainty for tuber/root crops and suggest modeling assessments of climate change impact on potato may be improved using an ensemble approach. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Changes in dissolved organic matter quality in a peatland and forest headwater stream as a function of seasonality and hydrologic conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Broder, Tanja; Knorr, Klaus-Holger; Biester, Harald

2017-04-01

Peatlands and peaty riparian zones are major sources of dissolved organic matter (DOM), but are poorly understood in terms of export dynamics and controls thereof. Thereby quality of DOM affects function and behavior of DOM in aquatic ecosystems, but DOM quality can also help to track DOM sources and their export dynamics under specific hydrologic preconditions. The objective of this study was to elucidate controls on temporal variability in DOM concentration and quality in stream water draining a bog and a forested peaty riparian zone, particularly considering drought and storm flow events. DOM quality was monitored using spectrofluorometric indices for aromaticity (SUVA254), apparent molecular size (SR) and precursor organic material (FI), as well as PARAFAC modeling of excitation emission matrices (EEMs). Indices for DOM quality exhibited major changes due to different hydrologic conditions, but patterns were also dependent on season. Stream water at the forested site with mineral, peaty soils generally exhibited higher variability in DOM concentrations and quality compared to the outflow of an ombrotrophic bog, where DOM was less susceptible to changes in hydrologic conditions. During snowmelt and spring events, near-surface protein-like DOM pools were exported. A microbial DOM fraction originating from groundwater and deep peat layers was increasing during drought, while a strongly microbially altered DOM fraction was also exported by discharge events with dry preconditions at the forested site. This might be due to accelerated microbial activity in the peaty riparian zone of the forested site under these preconditions. Our study demonstrated that DOM export dynamics are not only a passive mixing of different hydrological sources, but monitoring studies have to consider that DOM quality depends on hydrologic preconditions and season. Moreover, the forested peaty riparian zone generated the most variability in headwater DOM quantity and quality, as could be tracked by the used spectrofluorometric indices.

Mid-Piacenzian Variability of Nordic Seas Surface Circulation Linked to Terrestrial Climatic Change in Norway

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panitz, Sina; De Schepper, Stijn; Salzmann, Ulrich; Bachem, Paul E.; Risebrobakken, Bjørg; Clotten, Caroline; Hocking, Emma P.

2017-12-01

During the mid-Piacenzian, Nordic Seas sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were higher than today. While SSTs provide crucial climatic information, on their own they do not allow a reconstruction of potential underlying changes in water masses and currents. A new dinoflagellate cyst record for Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 642 is presented to evaluate changes in northward heat transport via the Norwegian Atlantic Current (NwAC) between 3.320 and 3.137 Ma. The record is compared with vegetation and SST reconstructions from Site 642 and SSTs from Iceland Sea ODP Site 907 to identify links between SSTs, ocean currents, and vegetation changes. The dinocyst record shows that strong Atlantic water influence via the NwAC corresponds to higher-than-present SSTs and cool temperate vegetation during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) transition M2-M1 and KM5. Reduced Atlantic water inflow relative to the warm stages coincides with near-modern SSTs and boreal vegetation during MIS M2, KM6, and KM4-KM2. During most of the studied interval, a strong SST gradient between Sites 642 and 907 indicates the presence of a proto-Arctic Front (AF). An absent gradient during the first half of MIS KM6, due to reduced Atlantic water influence at Site 642 and warm, presumably Atlantic water reaching Site 907, is indicative of a weakened NwAC and East Greenland Current. We conclude that repeated changes in Atlantic water influence directly affect terrestrial climate and that an active NwAC is needed for an AF to develop. Obliquity forcing may have played a role, but the correlation is not consistent.

Effects of land use, climate, topography and soil properties on regional soil organic carbon and total nitrogen in the upstream watershed of Miyun Reservoir, North China.

PubMed

Wang, Shufang; Wang, Xiaoke; Ouyang, Zhiyun

2012-01-01

Soil organic carbon (SOC) and total nitrogen (TN) contents as well as their relationships with site characteristics are of profound importance in assessing current regional, continental and global soil C and N stocks and potentials for C sequestration and N conservation to offset anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. This study investigated contents and distribution of SOC and TN under different land uses, and the quantitative relationships between SOC or TN and site characteristics in the Upstream Watershed of Miyun Reservoir, North China. Overall, both SOC and TN contents in natural secondary forests and grasslands were much higher than in plantations and croplands. Land use alone explained 37.2% and 38.4% of variations in SOC and TN contents, respectively. The optimal models for SOC and TN, achieved by multiple regression analysis combined with principal component analysis (PCA) to remove the multicollinearity among site variables, showed that elevation, slope, soil clay and water contents were the most significant factors controlling SOC and TN contents, jointly explaining 70.3% of SOC and 67.1% of TN contents variability. Only does additional 1.9% and 3% increase in the interpretations of SOC and TN contents variability respectively when land use was added to regressions, probably due to environment factors determine land use. Therefore, environmental variables were more important for SOC and TN variability than land use in the study area, and should be taken into consideration in properly evaluating effects of future land use changes on SOC and TN on a regional scale.

Worthy of their name: how floods drive outbreaks of two major floodwater mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae).

PubMed

Berec, Ludĕk; Gelbic, Ivan; Sebesta, Oldrich

2014-01-01

An understanding of how climate variables drive seasonal dynamics of mosquito populations is critical to mitigating negative impacts of potential outbreaks, including both nuisance effects and risk of mosquito-borne infectious disease. Here, we identify climate variables most affecting seasonal dynamics of two major floodwater mosquitoes, Aedes vexans (Meigen, 1830) and Aedes sticticus (Meigen, 1838) (Diptera: Culicidae), along the lower courses of the Dyje River, at the border between the Czech Republic and Austria. Monthly trap counts of both floodwater mosquitoes varied both across sites and years. Despite this variability, both models used to fit the observed data at all sites (and especially that for Ae. sticticus) and site-specific models fitted the observed data quite well. The most important climate variables we identified-temperature and especially flooding-were driving seasonal dynamics of both Aedes species. We suggest that flooding determines seasonal peaks in the monthly mosquito trap counts while temperature modulates seasonality in these counts. Hence, floodwater mosquitoes indeed appear worthy of their name. Moreover, the climate variables we considered for modeling were able reasonably to predict mosquito trap counts in the month ahead. Our study can help in planning flood management; timely notification of people, given that these mosquitoes are a real nuisance in this region; public health policy management to mitigate risk from such mosquito-borne diseases as that caused in humans by the Tahyna virus; and anticipating negative consequences of climate change, which are expected only to worsen unless floods, or the mosquitoes themselves, are satisfactorily managed.

Space Vehicle Valve System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kelley, Anthony R. (Inventor); Lindner, Jeffrey L. (Inventor)

2014-01-01

The present invention is a space vehicle valve system which controls the internal pressure of a space vehicle and the flow rate of purged gases at a given internal pressure and aperture site. A plurality of quasi-unique variable dimension peaked valve structures cover the purge apertures on a space vehicle. Interchangeable sheet guards configured to cover valve apertures on the peaked valve structure contain a pressure-activated surface on the inner surface. Sheet guards move outwardly from the peaked valve structure when in structural contact with a purge gas stream flowing through the apertures on the space vehicle. Changing the properties of the sheet guards changes the response of the sheet guards at a given internal pressure, providing control of the flow rate at a given aperture site.

How and why is aquatic quality changing at Nahanni National Park Reserve, NWT, Canada?

PubMed

Halliwell, Douglas R; Catto, Steve

2003-01-01

Nahanni National Park Reserve is located at southwestern NWT-Yukon border. One of the first UNESCO World Heritage sites, Nahanni lies within Taiga Cordillera and Taiga Shield Ecozones. Base and precious metal mining occurred upstream of Nahanni prior to park establishment. Nahanni waters, sediments, fish, and caribou have naturally elevated metals levels. Baseline water, sediment and fish tissue quality data were collected and analyzed throughout Nahanni during 1988-91 and 1992-97. These two programs characterized how aquatic quality variables are naturally varying in space and time, affected by geology, stream flow, seasonality, and extreme meteorological and geological events. Possible anthropogenic causes of aquatic quality change were examined. Measured values were compared to existing Guidelines and site-specific objectives were established.

Strontium isotopes in otoliths of a non-migratory fish (slimy sculpin): Implications for provenance studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brennan, Sean R.; Fernandez, Diego P.; Zimmerman, Christian E.; Cerling, Thure E.; Brown, Randy J.; Wooller, Matthew J.

2015-01-01

Heterogeneity in 87Sr/86Sr ratios of river-dissolved strontium (Sr) across geologically diverse environments provides a useful tool for investigating provenance, connectivity and movement patterns of various organisms and materials. Evaluation of site-specific 87Sr/86Sr temporal variability throughout study regions is a prerequisite for provenance research, but the dynamics driving temporal variability are generally system-dependent and not accurately predictable. We used the time-keeping properties of otoliths from non-migratory slimy sculpin (Cottus cognatus) to evaluate multi-scale 87Sr/86Sr temporal variability of river waters throughout the Nushagak River, a large (34,700 km2) remote watershed in Alaska, USA. Slimy sculpin otoliths incorporated site-specific temporal variation at sub-annual resolution and were able to record on the order of 0.0001 changes in the 87Sr/86Sr ratio. 87Sr/86Sr profiles of slimy sculpin collected in tributaries and main-stem channels of the upper watershed indicated that these regions were temporally stable, whereas the Lower Nushagak River exhibited some spatio-teporal variability. This study illustrates how the behavioral ecology of a non-migratory organism can be used to evaluate sub-annual 87Sr/86Sr temporal variability and has broad implications for provenance studies employing this tracer.

Depth Effects on the Decomposition Dynamics of Plant-derived C at Diverse Sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gregorich, E.; Ellert, B.; Janzen, H.; Beare, M.; Helgason, B. L.; Curtin, D.

2017-12-01

Decay of plant residues is tied to many ecosystem functions and affects atmospheric CO2, plant-available nutrients, microbial diversity, soil organic matter quality, among others. The rate of decay, in turn, is governed by soil type and management, location in the soil profile, and environmental variables, some of which may be changing in coming decades. Our objective in this study was to elucidate the decomposition dynamics of plant-derived C and N at different soil depths. To characterize the importance of these variables across a broad scale, we established a long-term study at two sites in Canada and one site in New Zealand. At each site, labelled barley straw (13C = 10.2 atom%,C = 37.9%; N = 0.95%; C:N = 40) was installed at 3 depths (5-10, 20-25 and 40-45 cm). Soil temperature was logged at each depth. Samples were collected at different times over 5-6 years after application of the residues. Results showed that substantial decay occurred at all depths within a relatively short time (< 1 year). Decay was greatest at the warmest site and depth affected the concentration of viable microbes. However, depth had no effect on residue decay after about 5 years.

Exposure to air pollution near a steel plant is associated with reduced heart rate variability: a randomised crossover study.

PubMed

Shutt, Robin H; Kauri, Lisa Marie; Weichenthal, Scott; Kumarathasan, Premkumari; Vincent, Renaud; Thomson, Errol M; Liu, Ling; Mahmud, Mamun; Cakmak, Sabit; Dales, Robert

2017-01-28

Epidemiological studies have shown that as ambient air pollution (AP) increases the risk of cardiovascular mortality also increases. The mechanisms of this effect may be linked to alterations in autonomic nervous system function. We wished to examine the effects of industrial AP on heart rate variability (HRV), a measure of subtle changes in heart rate and rhythm representing autonomic input to the heart. Sixty healthy adults were randomized to spend five consecutive 8-h days outdoors in one of two locations: (1) adjacent to a steel plant in the Bayview neighbourhood in Sault Ste Marie Ontario or (2) at a College campus, several kilometers from the plant. Following a 9-16 day washout period, participants spent five consecutive days at the other site. Ambient AP levels and ambulatory electrocardiogram recordings were collected daily. HRV analysis was undertaken on a segment of the ambulatory ECG recording during a 15 min rest period, near the end of the 8-h on-site day. Standard HRV parameters from both time and frequency domains were measured. Ambient AP was measured with fixed site monitors at both sites. Statistical analysis was completed using mixed-effects models. Compared to the College site, HRV was statistically significantly reduced at the Bayview site by 13% (95%CI 3.6,19.2) for the standard deviation of normal to normal, 8% (95%CI 0.1, 4.9) for the percent normal to normal intervals differing by more than 50 ms, and 15% (95%CI 74.9, 571.2) for low frequency power. Levels of carbon monoxide, sulphur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide, and fine and ultrafine particulates were slightly, but statistically significantly, elevated at Bayview when compared to College. Interquartile range changes in individual air pollutants were significantly associated with reductions in HRV measured on the same day. The patterns of effect showed a high degree of consistency, with nearly all pollutants significantly inversely associated with at least one measure of HRV. The significant associations between AP and changes in HRV suggest that ambient AP near a steel plant may impact autonomic nervous system control of the heart.

Long-term observations of CO2 exchange over agricultural crops in two regional climates of Southwest Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poyda, Arne; Wizemann, Hans-Dieter; Ingwersen, Joachim; Wulfmeyer, Volker; Streck, Thilo

2017-04-01

The impact of agricultural land use on soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics has been widely studied in the past few decades, particularly in context of the SOC forcing or mitigation potential of global climate change. Grassland utilization can increase or maintain SOC stocks. Arable cropping tends to decrease SOC stocks, at least for some time after land use change (SMITH, 2008). In the long run, it can be assumed that SOC reaches a steady state where the production of roots and aboveground crop residues and possibly organic fertilization level out soil respiration. To study the effects of crop type, year and regional site conditions on CO2 exchange and C budgets of arable cropping systems in Southwest Germany, eddy covariance measurements were conducted on a total of six sites in the two climatically contrasting regions of Kraichgau and Swabian Alb since 2009. Main crops were winter wheat, silage maize and winter rapeseed but also winter barley, summer barley and spelt were cultivated on the Swabian Alb sites. Cover crops were grown between winter and summer crops on all sites. Net ecosystem exchange (NEE) data were gap-filled following REICHSTEIN et al. (2005) and partitioned into ecosystem respiration (RECO) and gross primary production (GPP) using seasonally differing temperature response functions of nighttime NEE. Furthermore, different approaches for filling long data gaps of several months in winter were evaluated. Considering C inputs by organic fertilizers and C removals by harvest, C budgets were calculated per site and year. First results indicate that the variability of NEE fluxes between different crops is much higher compared to the variability between different years of a certain crop. However, regional differences in soil and weather conditions significantly influence plant growth dynamics and thus CO2 exchange.

3D ground‐motion simulations of Mw 7 earthquakes on the Salt Lake City segment of the Wasatch fault zone: Variability of long‐period (T≥1  s) ground motions and sensitivity to kinematic rupture parameters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moschetti, Morgan P.; Hartzell, Stephen; Ramirez-Guzman, Leonardo; Frankel, Arthur; Angster, Stephen J.; Stephenson, William J.

2017-01-01

We examine the variability of long‐period (T≥1  s) earthquake ground motions from 3D simulations of Mw 7 earthquakes on the Salt Lake City segment of the Wasatch fault zone, Utah, from a set of 96 rupture models with varying slip distributions, rupture speeds, slip velocities, and hypocenter locations. Earthquake ruptures were prescribed on a 3D fault representation that satisfies geologic constraints and maintained distinct strands for the Warm Springs and for the East Bench and Cottonwood faults. Response spectral accelerations (SA; 1.5–10 s; 5% damping) were measured, and average distance scaling was well fit by a simple functional form that depends on the near‐source intensity level SA0(T) and a corner distance Rc:SA(R,T)=SA0(T)(1+(R/Rc))−1. Period‐dependent hanging‐wall effects manifested and increased the ground motions by factors of about 2–3, though the effects appeared partially attributable to differences in shallow site response for sites on the hanging wall and footwall of the fault. Comparisons with modern ground‐motion prediction equations (GMPEs) found that the simulated ground motions were generally consistent, except within deep sedimentary basins, where simulated ground motions were greatly underpredicted. Ground‐motion variability exhibited strong lateral variations and, at some sites, exceeded the ground‐motion variability indicated by GMPEs. The effects on the ground motions of changing the values of the five kinematic rupture parameters can largely be explained by three predominant factors: distance to high‐slip subevents, dynamic stress drop, and changes in the contributions from directivity. These results emphasize the need for further characterization of the underlying distributions and covariances of the kinematic rupture parameters used in 3D ground‐motion simulations employed in probabilistic seismic‐hazard analyses.

Environmental controls on seasonal ecosystem evapotranspiration/potential evapotranspiration ratio as determined by the global eddy flux measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Chunwei; Sun, Ge; McNulty, Steven G.; Noormets, Asko; Fang, Yuan

2017-01-01

The evapotranspiration / potential evapotranspiration (AET / PET) ratio is traditionally termed as the crop coefficient (Kc) and has been generally used as ecosystem evaporative stress index. In the current hydrology literature, Kc has been widely used as a parameter to estimate crop water demand by water managers but has not been well examined for other types of ecosystems such as forests and other perennial vegetation. Understanding the seasonal dynamics of this variable for all ecosystems is important for projecting the ecohydrological responses to climate change and accurately quantifying water use at watershed to global scales. This study aimed at deriving monthly Kc for multiple vegetation cover types and understanding its environmental controls by analyzing the accumulated global eddy flux (FLUXNET) data. We examined monthly Kc data for seven vegetation covers, including open shrubland (OS), cropland (CRO), grassland (GRA), deciduous broad leaf forest (DBF), evergreen needle leaf forest (ENF), evergreen broad leaf forest (EBF), and mixed forest (MF), across 81 sites. We found that, except for evergreen forests (EBF and ENF), Kc values had large seasonal variation across all land covers. The spatial variability of Kc was well explained by latitude, suggesting site factors are a major control on Kc. Seasonally, Kc increased significantly with precipitation in the summer months, except in EBF. Moreover, leaf area index (LAI) significantly influenced monthly Kc in all land covers, except in EBF. During the peak growing season, forests had the highest Kc values, while croplands (CRO) had the lowest. We developed a series of multivariate linear monthly regression models for Kc by land cover type and season using LAI, site latitude, and monthly precipitation as independent variables. The Kc models are useful for understanding water stress in different ecosystems under climate change and variability as well as for estimating seasonal ET for large areas with mixed land covers.

Environmental controls on seasonal ecosystem evapotranspiration/potential evapotranspiration ratio as determined by the global eddy flux measurements

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Chunwei; Sun, Ge; McNulty, Steven G.

The evapotranspiration / potential evapotranspiration (AET / PET) ratio is traditionally termed as the crop coefficient ( K c) and has been generally used as ecosystem evaporative stress index. In the current hydrology literature, K c has been widely used as a parameter to estimate crop water demand by water managers but has not been well examined for other types of ecosystems such as forests and other perennial vegetation. Understanding the seasonal dynamics of this variable for all ecosystems is important for projecting the ecohydrological responses to climate change and accurately quantifying water use at watershed to global scales. Thismore » study aimed at deriving monthly K c for multiple vegetation cover types and understanding its environmental controls by analyzing the accumulated global eddy flux (FLUXNET) data. We examined monthly K c data for seven vegetation covers, including open shrubland (OS), cropland (CRO), grassland (GRA), deciduous broad leaf forest (DBF), evergreen needle leaf forest (ENF), evergreen broad leaf forest (EBF), and mixed forest (MF), across 81 sites. We found that, except for evergreen forests (EBF and ENF), K c values had large seasonal variation across all land covers. The spatial variability of K c was well explained by latitude, suggesting site factors are a major control on K c. Seasonally, K c increased significantly with precipitation in the summer months, except in EBF. Moreover, leaf area index (LAI) significantly influenced monthly K c in all land covers, except in EBF. During the peak growing season, forests had the highest K c values, while croplands (CRO) had the lowest. We developed a series of multivariate linear monthly regression models for K c by land cover type and season using LAI, site latitude, and monthly precipitation as independent variables. Here, the K c models are useful for understanding water stress in different ecosystems under climate change and variability as well as for estimating seasonal ET for large areas with mixed land covers.« less

Environmental controls on seasonal ecosystem evapotranspiration/potential evapotranspiration ratio as determined by the global eddy flux measurements

DOE PAGES

Liu, Chunwei; Sun, Ge; McNulty, Steven G.; ...

2017-01-18

The evapotranspiration / potential evapotranspiration (AET / PET) ratio is traditionally termed as the crop coefficient ( K c) and has been generally used as ecosystem evaporative stress index. In the current hydrology literature, K c has been widely used as a parameter to estimate crop water demand by water managers but has not been well examined for other types of ecosystems such as forests and other perennial vegetation. Understanding the seasonal dynamics of this variable for all ecosystems is important for projecting the ecohydrological responses to climate change and accurately quantifying water use at watershed to global scales. Thismore » study aimed at deriving monthly K c for multiple vegetation cover types and understanding its environmental controls by analyzing the accumulated global eddy flux (FLUXNET) data. We examined monthly K c data for seven vegetation covers, including open shrubland (OS), cropland (CRO), grassland (GRA), deciduous broad leaf forest (DBF), evergreen needle leaf forest (ENF), evergreen broad leaf forest (EBF), and mixed forest (MF), across 81 sites. We found that, except for evergreen forests (EBF and ENF), K c values had large seasonal variation across all land covers. The spatial variability of K c was well explained by latitude, suggesting site factors are a major control on K c. Seasonally, K c increased significantly with precipitation in the summer months, except in EBF. Moreover, leaf area index (LAI) significantly influenced monthly K c in all land covers, except in EBF. During the peak growing season, forests had the highest K c values, while croplands (CRO) had the lowest. We developed a series of multivariate linear monthly regression models for K c by land cover type and season using LAI, site latitude, and monthly precipitation as independent variables. Here, the K c models are useful for understanding water stress in different ecosystems under climate change and variability as well as for estimating seasonal ET for large areas with mixed land covers.« less

Invertebrate Metacommunity Structure and Dynamics in an Andean Glacial Stream Network Facing Climate Change

PubMed Central

Cauvy-Fraunié, Sophie; Espinosa, Rodrigo; Andino, Patricio; Jacobsen, Dean; Dangles, Olivier

2015-01-01

Under the ongoing climate change, understanding the mechanisms structuring the spatial distribution of aquatic species in glacial stream networks is of critical importance to predict the response of aquatic biodiversity in the face of glacier melting. In this study, we propose to use metacommunity theory as a conceptual framework to better understand how river network structure influences the spatial organization of aquatic communities in glacierized catchments. At 51 stream sites in an Andean glacierized catchment (Ecuador), we sampled benthic macroinvertebrates, measured physico-chemical and food resource conditions, and calculated geographical, altitudinal and glaciality distances among all sites. Using partial redundancy analysis, we partitioned community variation to evaluate the relative strength of environmental conditions (e.g., glaciality, food resource) vs. spatial processes (e.g., overland, watercourse, and downstream directional dispersal) in organizing the aquatic metacommunity. Results revealed that both environmental and spatial variables significantly explained community variation among sites. Among all environmental variables, the glacial influence component best explained community variation. Overland spatial variables based on geographical and altitudinal distances significantly affected community variation. Watercourse spatial variables based on glaciality distances had a unique significant effect on community variation. Within alpine catchment, glacial meltwater affects macroinvertebrate metacommunity structure in many ways. Indeed, the harsh environmental conditions characterizing glacial influence not only constitute the primary environmental filter but also, limit water-borne macroinvertebrate dispersal. Therefore, glacier runoff acts as an aquatic dispersal barrier, isolating species in headwater streams, and preventing non-adapted species to colonize throughout the entire stream network. Under a scenario of glacier runoff decrease, we expect a reduction in both environmental filtering and dispersal limitation, inducing a taxonomic homogenization of the aquatic fauna in glacierized catchments as well as the extinction of specialized species in headwater groundwater and glacier-fed streams, and consequently an irreversible reduction in regional diversity. PMID:26308853

Provisioning the Ritual Neolithic Site of Kfar HaHoresh, Israel at the Dawn of Animal Management.

PubMed

Meier, Jacqueline S; Goring-Morris, A Nigel; Munro, Natalie D

2016-01-01

It is widely agreed that a pivotal shift from wild animal hunting to herd animal management, at least of goats, began in the southern Levant by the Middle Pre-Pottery Neolithic B period (10,000-9,500 cal. BP) when evidence of ritual activities flourished in the region. As our knowledge of this critical change grows, sites that represent different functions and multiple time periods are needed to refine the timing, pace and character of changing human-animal relationships within the geographically variable southern Levant. In particular, we investigate how a ritual site was provisioned with animals at the time when herd management first began in the region. We utilize fauna from the 2010-2012 excavations at the mortuary site of Kfar HaHoresh-the longest continuous Pre-Pottery Neolithic B faunal sequence in the south Levantine Mediterranean Hills (Early-Late periods, 10,600-8,700 cal. BP). We investigate the trade-off between wild and domestic progenitor taxa and classic demographic indicators of management to detect changes in hunted animal selection and control over herd animal movement and reproduction. We find that ungulate selection at Kfar HaHoresh differs from neighboring sites, although changes in dietary breadth, herd demographics and body-size data fit the regional pattern of emerging management. Notably, wild ungulates including aurochs and gazelle are preferentially selected to provision Kfar HaHoresh in the PPNB, despite evidence that goat management was underway in the Mediterranean Hills. The preference for wild animals at this important site likely reflects their symbolic significance in ritual and mortuary practice.

Seasonal variability of atmospheric surface layer characteristics and weather pattern in Qatar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samanta, Dhrubajyoti; Cheng, Way Lee; Sadr, Reza

2016-11-01

Qatar's economy is based on oil and gas industry, which are mostly located in coastal regions. Therefore, better understanding of coastal weather, characteristics of surface layer and turbulence exchange processes is much needed. However, the turbulent atmospheric layer study in this region is severely limited. To support the broader aim and study long term precise wind information, a micro-meteorological field campaign has been carried out in a coastal location of north Qatar. The site is based on a 9 m tower, installed at Al Ghariya in the northern coast of Qatar, equipped with three sonic anemometers, temperature-humidity sensor, radiometer and a weather station. This study shows results based on the period August 2015 to July 2016. Various surface layer characteristics and modellings coefficients based on Monin Obukhov similarity theory is studied for the year and seasonal change is noted. Along with the seasonal variabilities of different weather parameters also observed. We hope this long term field observational study will be very much helpful for research community especially for modelers. In addition, two beach and shoreline monitoring cameras installed at the site could give first time information on waves and shoreline changes, and wind-wave interaction in Qatar. An Preliminary Analysis of Wind-Wave Interaction in Qatar in the Context of Changing Climate.

Early Holocene humidity patterns in the Iberian Peninsula reconstructed from lake, pollen and speleothem records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morellón, Mario; Aranbarri, Josu; Moreno, Ana; González-Sampériz, Penélope; Valero-Garcés, Blas L.

2018-02-01

Comparison of selected, well-dated, lacustrine, speleothem and terrestrial pollen records spanning the Holocene onset and the Early Holocene (ca. 11.7-8 cal kyrs BP) in the Iberian Peninsula shows large hydrological fluctuations and landscape changes with a complex regional pattern in timing and intensity. Marine pollen records from Alboran, the Mediterranean and off shore Atlantic sites show a step-wise increase in moisture and forest during this transition. However, available continental records point to two main patterns of spatial and temporal hydrological variability: i) Atlantic-influenced sites located at the northwestern areas (Enol, Sanabria, Lucenza, PRD-4), characterized by a gradual increase in humidity from the end of the Younger Dryas to the Mid Holocene, similarly to most North Atlantic records; and ii) continental and Mediterranean-influenced sites (Laguna Grande, Villarquemado, Fuentillejo, Padul, Estanya, Banyoles, Salines), with prolonged arid conditions of variable temporal extension after the Younger Dryas, followed by an abrupt increase in moisture at 10-9 cal kyrs BP. Different local climate conditions influenced by topography or the variable sensitivity (gradual versus threshold values) of the proxies analyzed in each case are evaluated. Vegetation composition (conifers versus mesothermophilous taxa) and resilience would explain a subdued response of vegetation in central continental areas while in Mediterranean sites, insufficient summer moisture availability could not maintain high lake levels and promote mesophyte forest, in contrast to Atlantic-influenced areas. Comparison with available climate models, Greenland ice cores, North Atlantic marine sequences and continental records from Central and Northern Europe and the whole Mediterranean region underlines the distinctive character of the hydrological changes occurred in inner Iberia throughout the Early Holocene. The persistent arid conditions might be explained by the intensification of the summer drought due to the high seasonality contrast at these latitudes caused by the orbital-induced summer insolation maximum. New records, particularly from western and southernmost Iberia, and palaeoclimate models with higher spatial resolution would help to constrain these hypotheses.

An environmental tolerance index for ostracodes as indicators of physical and chemical factors in aquatic habitats

USGS Publications Warehouse

Curry, B. Brandon

1999-01-01

Continental ostracode occurrences reflect salinity, solute composition, temperature, flow conditions, and other environmental properties of the water they inhabit. Their occurrences also reflect the variability of many of these environmental parameters. Environmental tolerance indices (ETIs) offer a new way to express the nature of an ostracode's environment. As defined herein, ETIs range in value from zero to one, and may be calculated for continuous and binary variables. For continuous variables such as salinity, the ETI is the ratio of the range of values of salinity tolerated by an ostracode to the total range of salinity values from a representative database. In this investigation, the database of continuous variables consists of information from 341 sites located throughout the United States. Binary ETIs indicate whether an environmental variable such as flowing water affects ostracode presence or absence. The binary database consists of information from 784 sites primarily from Illinois, USA. ETIs were developed in this investigation to interpret paleohydrological changes implied by fossil ostracode successions. ETI profiles may be cast in terms of a weighted average, or on presence/absence. The profiles express ostracode tolerance of environmental parameters such as salinity or currents. Tolerance of a wide range of values is taken to indicate shallow water because shallow environments are conducive to thermal variability, short-term water residence, and the development of currents from wind-driven waves.

Carbon dynamics within agricultural and native sites in the loess region of Western lowa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Manies, K.L.; Harden, J.W.; Kramer, L.; Parton, W.J.

2001-01-01

In order to quantify the historical changes in carbon storage that result from agricultural conversion, this study compared the carbon dynamics of two sites in the loess region of Iowa: a native prairie and a cropland. Field data were obtained to determine present-day carbon storage and its variability within a landscape (a stable ridgetop vs. eroding upper-midslope vs. depositional lower slope). Models were used to recreate the historical carbon budget of these sites and determine the cropland's potential to be a net CO2 source or sink, relative to the atmosphere. Regardless of slope position, the cropland site contains approximately half the amount of carbon as prairie. Variability in soil carbon storage within a site as a consequence of slope position is as large or larger (variations of 200-300%) than temporal variation (???200% at all slope positions). The most extreme difference in soil carbon storage between the cropland and prairie sites is found in the soil at the upper-midslope, which is the area of greatest erosion. The models estimate that 93-172% of the carbon in the original topsoil has been lost from the cropland's eroding midslope. Much of this carbon is derived from deeper soil horizons. Either a small sink or strong source of carbon to the atmosphere is created, depending on the fate of the eroded sediment and its associated carbon.

Evidence of Climate-Induced Range Contractions in Bull Trout Salvelinus confluentus in a Rocky Mountain Watershed, U.S.A

PubMed Central

Eby, Lisa A.; Helmy, Olga; Holsinger, Lisa M.; Young, Michael K.

2014-01-01

Many freshwater fish species are considered vulnerable to stream temperature warming associated with climate change because they are ectothermic, yet there are surprisingly few studies documenting changes in distributions. Streams and rivers in the U.S. Rocky Mountains have been warming for several decades. At the same time these systems have been experiencing an increase in the severity and frequency of wildfires, which often results in habitat changes including increased water temperatures. We resampled 74 sites across a Rocky Mountain watershed 17 to 20 years after initial samples to determine whether there were trends in bull trout occurrence associated with temperature, wildfire, or other habitat variables. We found that site abandonment probabilities (0.36) were significantly higher than colonization probabilities (0.13), which indicated a reduction in the number of occupied sites. Site abandonment probabilities were greater at low elevations with warm temperatures. Other covariates, such as the presence of wildfire, nonnative brook trout, proximity to areas with many adults, and various stream habitat descriptors, were not associated with changes in probability of occupancy. Higher abandonment probabilities at low elevation for bull trout provide initial evidence validating the predictions made by bioclimatic models that bull trout populations will retreat to higher, cooler thermal refuges as water temperatures increase. The geographic breadth of these declines across the region is unknown but the approach of revisiting historical sites using an occupancy framework provides a useful template for additional assessments. PMID:24897341

Evidence of climate-induced range contractions in bull trout Salvelinus confluentus in a Rocky Mountain watershed, U.S.A.

PubMed

Eby, Lisa A; Helmy, Olga; Holsinger, Lisa M; Young, Michael K

2014-01-01

Many freshwater fish species are considered vulnerable to stream temperature warming associated with climate change because they are ectothermic, yet there are surprisingly few studies documenting changes in distributions. Streams and rivers in the U.S. Rocky Mountains have been warming for several decades. At the same time these systems have been experiencing an increase in the severity and frequency of wildfires, which often results in habitat changes including increased water temperatures. We resampled 74 sites across a Rocky Mountain watershed 17 to 20 years after initial samples to determine whether there were trends in bull trout occurrence associated with temperature, wildfire, or other habitat variables. We found that site abandonment probabilities (0.36) were significantly higher than colonization probabilities (0.13), which indicated a reduction in the number of occupied sites. Site abandonment probabilities were greater at low elevations with warm temperatures. Other covariates, such as the presence of wildfire, nonnative brook trout, proximity to areas with many adults, and various stream habitat descriptors, were not associated with changes in probability of occupancy. Higher abandonment probabilities at low elevation for bull trout provide initial evidence validating the predictions made by bioclimatic models that bull trout populations will retreat to higher, cooler thermal refuges as water temperatures increase. The geographic breadth of these declines across the region is unknown but the approach of revisiting historical sites using an occupancy framework provides a useful template for additional assessments.

Framework for a U.S. Geological Survey Hydrologic Climate-Response Program in Maine

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Lent, Robert M.; Dudley, Robert W.; Schalk, Charles W.

2009-01-01

This report presents a framework for a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) hydrologic climate-response program designed to provide early warning of changes in the seasonal water cycle of Maine. Climate-related hydrologic changes on Maine's rivers and lakes in the winter and spring during the last century are well documented, and several river and lake variables have been shown to be sensitive to air-temperature changes. Monitoring of relevant hydrologic data would provide important baseline information against which future climate change can be measured. The framework of the hydrologic climate-response program presented here consists of four major parts: (1) identifying homogeneous climate-response regions; (2) identifying hydrologic components and key variables of those components that would be included in a hydrologic climate-response data network - as an example, streamflow has been identified as a primary component, with a key variable of streamflow being winter-spring streamflow timing; the data network would be created by maintaining existing USGS data-collection stations and establishing new ones to fill data gaps; (3) regularly updating historical trends of hydrologic data network variables; and (4) establishing basins for process-based studies. Components proposed for inclusion in the hydrologic climate-response data network have at least one key variable for which substantial historical data are available. The proposed components are streamflow, lake ice, river ice, snowpack, and groundwater. The proposed key variables of each component have extensive historical data at multiple sites and are expected to be responsive to climate change in the next few decades. These variables are also important for human water use and (or) ecosystem function. Maine would be divided into seven climate-response regions that follow major river-basin boundaries (basins subdivided to hydrologic units with 8-digit codes or larger) and have relatively homogeneous climates. Key hydrologic variables within each climate-response region would be analyzed regularly to maintain up-to-date analyses of year-to-year variability, decadal variability, and longer term trends. Finally, one basin in each climate-response region would be identified for process-based hydrologic and ecological studies.

A survey of whitewater recreation impacts along five West Virginia rivers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Leung, Y.-F.; Marion, J.L.

1998-01-01

Results are reported from an assessment of whitewater river recreation impacts at river accesses and recreation sites along five West Virginia rivers: the New, Gauley, Cheat, Tygart, and Shenandoah. Procedures were developed and applied to assess resource conditions on 24 river access roads, 68 river accesses, and 151 recreation sites. The majority of river accesses and recreation sites are located on the New and Gauley rivers, which account for most of the state?s whitewater recreation use. Site conditions are variable. While some river accesses and sites are situated on resistant rocky substrates, many are poorly designed and/or located on erodible soil and sand substrates. Recreation site sizes and other areal measures of site disturbance are quite large, coincident with the large group sizes associated with commercially outfitted whitewater rafting trips. Recommendations are offered for managing river accesses and sites and whitewater visitation and the selection of indicators and standards as part of a Limits of Acceptable Change management process. Procedures and recommendations for continued visitor impact monitoring are also offered.

Sediment color and reflectance record from Ocean Drilling Program Hole 625B, Gulf of Mexico (marine isotope stage 5 interval)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dowsett, Harry J.

1999-01-01

Analysis of climate indicators from the North Atlantic, California Margin, and ice cores from Greenland suggest millennial scale climate variability is a component of earth's climate system during the last interglacial period (marine oxygen isotope stage 5). The USGS is involved in a survey of high resolution marine records covering the last interglacial period (MIS 5) to further document the variability of climate and assess the rate at which climate can change during warm intervals. The Gulf of Mexico (GOM) is an attractive area for analysis of climate variability and rapid change. Changes in the Mississippi River Basin presumably are translated to the GOM via the river and its effect on sediment distribution and type. Likewise, the summer monsoon in the southwestern US is driven by strong southerly winds. These winds may produce upwelling in the GOM which will be recorded in the sedimentary record. Several areas of high accumulation rate have been identified in the GOM. Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 625 appears to meet the criteria of having a well preserved carbonate record and accumulation rate capable of discerning millennial scale changes.

Global Sea Surface Temperature and Ecosystem Change Across the Mid-Miocene Climatic Optimum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Veenstra, T. J. T.; Bakker, V. B.; Sangiorgi, F.; Peterse, F.; Schouten, S.; Sluijs, A.

2016-12-01

Even though the term Mid-Miocene Climatic Optimum (MMCO; ca. 17 to 14 Ma) has been widely used in the literature since the early 1990's, almost no early-middle Miocene sea surface temperature (SST) proxy records have been published that support climate warming across its onset. Benthic (and diagenetically altered planktic) foram δ18O records show a decrease, suggesting (deep) ocean warming and/or Antarctic ice sheet melting. However, reliable absolute SST proxy records are absent from the tropics and very scarce in temperate and polar regions. This leaves the question if the warmth of the MMCO was truly global and how its onset relates to the widely recorded positive (Monterey) carbon isotope excursion and volcanism. Finally, it remains uncertain how marine ecosystems responded to this hypothesized warming. We present organic biomarker SST proxy records (Uk'37 and TEX86) spanning the MMCO for several locations in the Atlantic and Pacific Ocean along a pole-to-pole transect, including Ocean Drilling Program Site 959 in the eastern Tropical Atlantic, ODP Site 643 in the Norwegian Sea, ODP Site 1007 on the Great Bahama Bank and Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Site U1352 off New Zealand. Additionally, we use marine palynology (mostly dinoflagellate cysts) to assess ecosystem change at these locations. The resulting spatial reconstruction of SST change shows that Middle Miocene warming was global. Nevertheless, the records also show distinct regional variability, including relatively large warming in the Norwegian Sea and a damped signal in the southern hemisphere, suggesting pronounced changes in ocean circulation. The onset of the MMCO was marked by prominent changes in ecological and depositional setting at the studied sites, likely also related to ocean circulation changes.

Spatial variability of biotic and abiotic tree establishment constraints across a treeline ecotone in the Alaska range.

PubMed

Stueve, Kirk M; Isaacs, Rachel E; Tyrrell, Lucy E; Densmore, Roseann V

2011-02-01

Throughout interior Alaska (U.S.A.), a gradual warming trend in mean monthly temperatures occurred over the last few decades (approximatlely 2-4 degrees C). The accompanying increases in woody vegetation at many alpine treeline (hereafter treeline) locations provided an opportunity to examine how biotic and abiotic local site conditions interact to control tree establishment patterns during warming. We devised a landscape ecological approach to investigate these relationships at an undisturbed treeline in the Alaska Range. We identified treeline changes between 1953 (aerial photography) and 2005 (satellite imagery) in a geographic information system (GIS) and linked them with corresponding local site conditions derived from digital terrain data, ancillary climate data, and distance to 1953 trees. Logistic regressions enabled us to rank the importance of local site conditions in controlling tree establishment. We discovered a spatial transition in the importance of tree establishment controls. The biotic variable (proximity to 1953 trees) was the most important tree establishment predictor below the upper tree limit, providing evidence of response lags with the abiotic setting and suggesting that tree establishment is rarely in equilibrium with the physical environment or responding directly to warming. Elevation and winter sun exposure were important predictors of tree establishment at the upper tree limit, but proximity to trees persisted as an important tertiary predictor, indicating that tree establishment may achieve equilibrium with the physical environment. However, even here, influences from the biotic variable may obscure unequivocal correlations with the abiotic setting (including temperature). Future treeline expansion will likely be patchy and challenging to predict without considering the spatial variability of influences from biotic and abiotic local site conditions.

Spatial variability of biotic and abiotic tree establishment constraints across a treeline ecotone in the Alaska Range

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stueve, K.M.; Isaacs, R.E.; Tyrrell, L.E.; Densmore, R.V.

2011-01-01

Throughout interior Alaska (USA), a gradual warming trend in mean monthly temperatures occurred over the last few decades (;2-48C). The accompanying increases in woody vegetation at many alpine treeline (hereafter treeline) locations provided an opportunity to examine how biotic and abiotic local site conditions interact to control tree establishment patterns during warming. We devised a landscape ecological approach to investigate these relationships at an undisturbed treeline in the Alaska Range. We identified treeline changes between 1953 (aerial photography) and 2005 (satellite imagery) in a geographic information system (GIS) and linked them with corresponding local site conditions derived from digital terrain data, ancillary climate data, and distance to 1953 trees. Logistic regressions enabled us to rank the importance of local site conditions in controlling tree establishment. We discovered a spatial transition in the importance of tree establishment controls. The biotic variable (proximity to 1953 trees) was the most important tree establishment predictor below the upper tree limit, providing evidence of response lags with the abiotic setting and suggesting that tree establishment is rarely in equilibrium with the physical environment or responding directly to warming. Elevation and winter sun exposure were important predictors of tree establishment at the upper tree limit, but proximity to trees persisted as an important tertiary predictor, indicating that tree establishment may achieve equilibrium with the physical environment. However, even here, influences from the biotic variable may obscure unequivocal correlations with the abiotic setting (including temperature). Future treeline expansion will likely be patchy and challenging to predict without considering the spatial variability of influences from biotic and abiotic local site conditions. ?? 2011 by the Ecological Society of America.

Integrating multiple distribution models to guide conservation efforts of an endangered toad

USGS Publications Warehouse

Treglia, Michael L.; Fisher, Robert N.; Fitzgerald, Lee A.

2015-01-01

Species distribution models are used for numerous purposes such as predicting changes in species’ ranges and identifying biodiversity hotspots. Although implications of distribution models for conservation are often implicit, few studies use these tools explicitly to inform conservation efforts. Herein, we illustrate how multiple distribution models developed using distinct sets of environmental variables can be integrated to aid in identification sites for use in conservation. We focus on the endangered arroyo toad (Anaxyrus californicus), which relies on open, sandy streams and surrounding floodplains in southern California, USA, and northern Baja California, Mexico. Declines of the species are largely attributed to habitat degradation associated with vegetation encroachment, invasive predators, and altered hydrologic regimes. We had three main goals: 1) develop a model of potential habitat for arroyo toads, based on long-term environmental variables and all available locality data; 2) develop a model of the species’ current habitat by incorporating recent remotely-sensed variables and only using recent locality data; and 3) integrate results of both models to identify sites that may be employed in conservation efforts. We used a machine learning technique, Random Forests, to develop the models, focused on riparian zones in southern California. We identified 14.37% and 10.50% of our study area as potential and current habitat for the arroyo toad, respectively. Generally, inclusion of remotely-sensed variables reduced modeled suitability of sites, thus many areas modeled as potential habitat were not modeled as current habitat. We propose such sites could be made suitable for arroyo toads through active management, increasing current habitat by up to 67.02%. Our general approach can be employed to guide conservation efforts of virtually any species with sufficient data necessary to develop appropriate distribution models.

Water temperature variability within an Arctic stream; analysis and implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mellor, C. J.; Hannah, D. M.; Milner, A. M.

2009-04-01

Arctic climate warming occurred at twice the global average over the last century and air temperature is predicted to increase by 7.5°C by 2099. Arctic river systems are hypothesized to be particularly vulnerable to warming due to their dependence on cryospheric water sources and thermal sensitivity of biotic communities. However, research is very limited on hydroecological response of Arctic rivers to a changing climate. This paper addresses this research gap and aims to investigate links between thermal dynamics and benthic communities for a river basin in Swedish Lappland. The Kårsavagge is located ~200 km north of the Arctic Circle and contains a small temperate glacier and two lakes. The Kårsa River drains into the Abisko River (~ 25 km from the valley head). The region experiences marked seasonality with average monthly air temperature ranging from +10 to -10°C. In June 2008, three gauging stations (1 - close to glacier snout, 2 - above first major extra glacial tributary and 3 - between the lakes and confluence with the Abisko river) were installed to record water temperature, riverbed temperature (at 0.05m, 0.20m and 0.40m depth), electrical conductivity, river stage, precipitation and turbidity. On top of these, twenty loggers recorded water temperature between gauging stations and across a braided reach located ~ 1.5km downstream of the glacier snout. Diurnal water temperature cycles were found at all sites; but average temperature increased downstream from 1.7°C near the glacier snout to 10.6°C before the Abisko River confluence. Sites immediately downstream of the lakes displayed moderated thermal variability. Bed temperatures in the upper catchment (lower) were higher (lower) and less variable that temperatures in the overlying water column. The degree of parity between water column and stream bed temperatures varied among sites with site 3 showing the greatest difference and site 2 showing the least. This implies a variable degree of connectivity between the water column and bed sediments and/or variation in the extent and source water of upwelling. Average temperature across the braided reach ranged from 2.8°C in the main glacier fed (kryal) channel to 8.8°C in a snowmelt (nival) channel sourced from north-facing slopes, reflecting the differential impact of solar heating on water from these two distinct sources. Chironomidae (non-biting midges) dominated the benthic communities in the upper catchment where maximum water temperature did not exceed 4.4°C. As distance from the glacier and water temperature increases other taxa appear (e.g. Plecoptera, Simulidae), with species richness and diversity peaking between the two lakes. Longitudinal changes in thermal regime are associated with shifts in the benthic invertebrate community. Work is ongoing to evaluate whether the observed lateral variation, which is close to that observed down the 25km longitudinal profile has similar implications. This lateral variability may be important in providing thermal refugia and therefore increasing biota diversity in the upper catchment. This work has highlighted the potential extent of longitudinal, vertical and lateral temperature variation within Arctic river systems. In combination with invertebrate distribution this could be used to identify communities at high risk from changes in thermal regime and further, identify species which can act as indicators of the changing Arctic climate.

Near-IR MCD of the nonheme ferrous active site in naphthalene 1,2-dioxygenase: correlation to crystallography and structural insight into the mechanism of Rieske dioxygenases.

PubMed

Ohta, Takehiro; Chakrabarty, Sarmistha; Lipscomb, John D; Solomon, Edward I

2008-02-06

Near-IR MCD and variable temperature, variable field (VTVH) MCD have been applied to naphthalene 1,2-dioxygenase (NDO) to describe the coordination geometry and electronic structure of the mononuclear nonheme ferrous catalytic site in the resting and substrate-bound forms with the Rieske 2Fe2S cluster oxidized and reduced. The structural results are correlated with the crystallographic studies of NDO and other related Rieske nonheme iron oxygenases to develop molecular level insights into the structure/function correlation for this class of enzymes. The MCD data for resting NDO with the Rieske center oxidized indicate the presence of a six-coordinate high-spin ferrous site with a weak axial ligand which becomes more tightly coordinated when the Rieske center is reduced. Binding of naphthalene to resting NDO (Rieske oxidized and reduced) converts the six-coordinate sites into five-coordinate (5c) sites with elimination of a water ligand. In the Rieske oxidized form the 5c sites are square pyramidal but transform to a 1:2 mixture of trigonal bipyramial/square pyramidal sites when the Rieske center is reduced. Thus the geometric and electronic structure of the catalytic site in the presence of substrate can be significantly affected by the redox state of the Rieske center. The catalytic ferrous site is primed for the O2 reaction when substrate is bound in the active site in the presence of the reduced Rieske site. These structural changes ensure that two electrons and the substrate are present before the binding and activation of O2, which avoids the uncontrolled formation and release of reactive oxygen species.

CTFS-ForestGEO: a worldwide network monitoring forests in an era of global change.

PubMed

Anderson-Teixeira, Kristina J; Davies, Stuart J; Bennett, Amy C; Gonzalez-Akre, Erika B; Muller-Landau, Helene C; Wright, S Joseph; Abu Salim, Kamariah; Almeyda Zambrano, Angélica M; Alonso, Alfonso; Baltzer, Jennifer L; Basset, Yves; Bourg, Norman A; Broadbent, Eben N; Brockelman, Warren Y; Bunyavejchewin, Sarayudh; Burslem, David F R P; Butt, Nathalie; Cao, Min; Cardenas, Dairon; Chuyong, George B; Clay, Keith; Cordell, Susan; Dattaraja, Handanakere S; Deng, Xiaobao; Detto, Matteo; Du, Xiaojun; Duque, Alvaro; Erikson, David L; Ewango, Corneille E N; Fischer, Gunter A; Fletcher, Christine; Foster, Robin B; Giardina, Christian P; Gilbert, Gregory S; Gunatilleke, Nimal; Gunatilleke, Savitri; Hao, Zhanqing; Hargrove, William W; Hart, Terese B; Hau, Billy C H; He, Fangliang; Hoffman, Forrest M; Howe, Robert W; Hubbell, Stephen P; Inman-Narahari, Faith M; Jansen, Patrick A; Jiang, Mingxi; Johnson, Daniel J; Kanzaki, Mamoru; Kassim, Abdul Rahman; Kenfack, David; Kibet, Staline; Kinnaird, Margaret F; Korte, Lisa; Kral, Kamil; Kumar, Jitendra; Larson, Andrew J; Li, Yide; Li, Xiankun; Liu, Shirong; Lum, Shawn K Y; Lutz, James A; Ma, Keping; Maddalena, Damian M; Makana, Jean-Remy; Malhi, Yadvinder; Marthews, Toby; Mat Serudin, Rafizah; McMahon, Sean M; McShea, William J; Memiaghe, Hervé R; Mi, Xiangcheng; Mizuno, Takashi; Morecroft, Michael; Myers, Jonathan A; Novotny, Vojtech; de Oliveira, Alexandre A; Ong, Perry S; Orwig, David A; Ostertag, Rebecca; den Ouden, Jan; Parker, Geoffrey G; Phillips, Richard P; Sack, Lawren; Sainge, Moses N; Sang, Weiguo; Sri-Ngernyuang, Kriangsak; Sukumar, Raman; Sun, I-Fang; Sungpalee, Witchaphart; Suresh, Hebbalalu Sathyanarayana; Tan, Sylvester; Thomas, Sean C; Thomas, Duncan W; Thompson, Jill; Turner, Benjamin L; Uriarte, Maria; Valencia, Renato; Vallejo, Marta I; Vicentini, Alberto; Vrška, Tomáš; Wang, Xihua; Wang, Xugao; Weiblen, George; Wolf, Amy; Xu, Han; Yap, Sandra; Zimmerman, Jess

2015-02-01

Global change is impacting forests worldwide, threatening biodiversity and ecosystem services including climate regulation. Understanding how forests respond is critical to forest conservation and climate protection. This review describes an international network of 59 long-term forest dynamics research sites (CTFS-ForestGEO) useful for characterizing forest responses to global change. Within very large plots (median size 25 ha), all stems ≥ 1 cm diameter are identified to species, mapped, and regularly recensused according to standardized protocols. CTFS-ForestGEO spans 25 °S-61 °N latitude, is generally representative of the range of bioclimatic, edaphic, and topographic conditions experienced by forests worldwide, and is the only forest monitoring network that applies a standardized protocol to each of the world's major forest biomes. Supplementary standardized measurements at subsets of the sites provide additional information on plants, animals, and ecosystem and environmental variables. CTFS-ForestGEO sites are experiencing multifaceted anthropogenic global change pressures including warming (average 0.61 °C), changes in precipitation (up to ± 30% change), atmospheric deposition of nitrogen and sulfur compounds (up to 3.8 g N m(-2) yr(-1) and 3.1 g S m(-2) yr(-1)), and forest fragmentation in the surrounding landscape (up to 88% reduced tree cover within 5 km). The broad suite of measurements made at CTFS-ForestGEO sites makes it possible to investigate the complex ways in which global change is impacting forest dynamics. Ongoing research across the CTFS-ForestGEO network is yielding insights into how and why the forests are changing, and continued monitoring will provide vital contributions to understanding worldwide forest diversity and dynamics in an era of global change. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Germination responses to current and future temperatures of four seeder shrubs across a latitudinal gradient in western Iberia.

PubMed

Chamorro, Daniel; Luna, Belén; Moreno, José M

2017-01-01

Species differ in their temperature germination niche. Populations of a species may similarly differ across the distribution range of the species. Anticipating the impacts of climate variability and change requires understanding the differential sensitivity to germination temperature among and within species. Here we studied the germination responses of four hard-seeded Cistaceae seeders to a range of current and future temperatures. Seeds were collected at sites across the Iberian Peninsula and exposed or not exposed to a heat shock to break dormancy, then set to germinate under four temperature regimes. Temperatures were varied daily and seasonally, simulating the temperature range across the gradient, plus an increased temperature simulating future climate. Time to germination onset and cumulative germination at the end of each season were analyzed for the effects of temperature treatments, seasons, and local climate (temperature of the germination period, T gp ) at each site. T gp was a significant covariate of germination in all species but Cistus populifolius. Temperature treatments significantly affected Cistus ladanifer, C. salviifolius, and Halimium ocymoides. Germination occurred in simulated autumn conditions, with little germination occurring at later seasons, except in unheated seeds of H. ocymoides. Exposure to a heat shock changed the sensitivity to temperature treatments and the relationships with T gp . Germination responses to temperature differ not only among species but also within species across their latitudinal range. The responses were idiosyncratic and related to the local climate of the population. This germination variability complicates generalizing the impacts of climate variability and climate change. © 2017 Botanical Society of America.

The Online Big Blue Test for Promoting Exercise: Health, Self-Efficacy, and Social Support.

PubMed

Gómez-Zúñiga, Beni; Pousada, Modesta; Hernandez, Manny M; Colberg, Sheri; Gabarrón, Elia; Armayones, Manuel

2015-10-01

Recent articles have documented the influence of self-efficacy and social support on exercising. Simultaneously, insulin use is also related to the perception of self-efficacy and social support in patients with diabetes. We combine these two ideas through the Big Blue Test experience in a social networking site and propose to analyze whether a change in blood sugar levels after completion of the Big Blue Test and insulin use are related to the perception of self-efficacy and social support in patients with diabetes. To undergo the Big Blue Test, 3,926 participants voluntarily joined the Diabetes Hands Foundation. Responses were analyzed using descriptive analysis. The participants who reduced their blood glucose after exercise the least were those with lower self-efficacy and also with lower perceived social support. There seems to have been no relationship between changes in blood sugar level and the explicit intention of doing exercise in the future. Insulin-dependent participants demonstrated a lower perception of self-efficacy and social support than non-insulin-dependent participants. Change in blood glucose level or being insulin-dependent or not do not explain completely a health behavior such as exercise. Hence, self-efficacy and social support have an impact on behavioral change such as exercise to become a habit in people with diabetes, and this experience through a social networking site is an important tool for this behavioral change. For exercise to become a habit in people with diabetes, it is necessary to consider not only the crucial physiological variables, but also those psychological variables that clearly have an impact on behavioral change.

Effect of warming on larch trees in the Asian southern border of the boreal forest, Mongolia and China in the 20th century.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lopez Caceres, Maximo Larry; Cho, Qiqin; Nobori, Yoshihiro; Takeda, Kazuo; Byambasuren, Mijidsuren; Zhang, Yandong; Sugimoto, Atsuko

2016-04-01

In recent decades air temperature (Ta) has been increasing steadily around the globe and it is reported that in the last 40 years Ta in Mongolia alone has increased by about 2.1 deg.C. The boreal region as a whole is expected to experience changes due to atmospheric drying, permafrost degradation, increases in the frequency of forest fires and other factors that will lead to a shift of the forest ecosystems northward. The southern border of the boreal forest distributes in northern Mongolia and northeast China, which as transition areas are more sensitive to changes. In a 500 km long south-north transect of larch forests extending in each of these two countries, larch forest sites were chosen (Larix sibirica in Mongolia and Larix gmeliini in China). Studies until now have used only tree-ring analysis to determined past and recent climate in Mongolia and China. However, isotope analysis has not been coupled with this analysis to give a wider overview of the environmental changes taking place in these regions. Therefore in this study tree core samples were collected for tree-ring and carbon isotope analysis to be coupled with available meteorological data. These data indicate that in the last four decades, the northernmost site of the selected transect has experienced the largest increase in Ta, but nevertheless the annual Ta in the southernmost site remained several degrees higher. On the other hand precipitation shows a very slight increase in the central and northernmost sites while an insignificant decrease is observed in the southernmost site. Tree-ring analysis shows that for most of the 20th century tree ring growth had lower inter-annual variability until the beginning of the 1970's but from then on the annual variability has increased. Unlike the results of the tree-ring analysis, the carbon isotope analysis revealed that until the 1970's the increases in the drying atmospheric conditions (higher temperature-no changes in rainfall) were not present but the steady increase in values from the 1980's clearly represented the drying effect, especially in the southernmost site. The differences in the carbon isotopic values reflect wetter conditions in the north than in the south but in general all sites are experiencing drier conditions than in previous decades. However the northern site showed more cyclic behavior with values increasing and decreasing in a decadal basis while the southern sites showed a steady increase from a mean value of -23.4 ‰ in the 1950's to a mean value of -21.0 ‰ in the first decade of the 21st century.

Space and time scales of shoreline change at Cape Cod National Seashore, MA, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Allen, J.R.; LaBash, C.L.; List, J.H.; Kraus, Nicholas C.; McDougal, William G.

1999-01-01

Different processes cause patterns of shoreline change which are exhibited at different magnitudes and nested into different spatial and time scale hierarchies. The 77-km outer beach at Cape Cod National Seashore offers one of the few U.S. federally owned portions of beach to study shoreline change within the full range of sediment source and sink relationships, and barely affected by human intervention. 'Mean trends' of shoreline changes are best observed at long time scales but contain much spatial variation thus many sites are not equal in response. Long-term, earlier-noted trends are confirmed but the added quantification and resolution improves greatly the understanding of appropriate spatial and time scales of those processes driving bluff retreat and barrier island changes in both north and south depocenters. Shorter timescales allow for comparison of trends and uncertainty in shoreline change at local scales but are dependent upon some measure of storm intensity and seasonal frequency. Single-event shoreline survey results for one storm at daily intervals after the erosional phase suggest a recovery time for the system of six days, identifies three sites with abnormally large change, and that responses at these sites are spatially coherent for now unknown reasons. Areas near inlets are the most variable at all time scales. Hierarchies in both process and form are suggested.

Effect of aquifer storage and recovery (ASR) on recovered stormwater quality variability.

PubMed

Page, D W; Peeters, L; Vanderzalm, J; Barry, K; Gonzalez, D

2017-06-15

Aquifer Storage and Recovery (ASR) is increasingly being considered as a means of reusing urban stormwater to supplement available urban water resources. Storage of stormwater in an aquifer has been shown to affect water quality but it has also been claimed that storage will also decrease the stormwater quality variability making for improved predictability and management. This study is the first to document the changes in stormwater quality variability as a result of subsurface storage at four full scale ASR sites using advanced statistical techniques. New methods to examine water quality are required as data is often highly left censored and so traditional measures of variability such as the coefficient of variation are inappropriate. It was observed that for some water quality parameters (most notably E. coli) there was a marked improvement of water quality and a significant decrease in variability at all sites. This means that aquifer storage prior to engineered treatment systems may be advantageous in terms of system design to avoid over engineering. For other parameters such as metal(loids)s and nutrients the trend was less clear due to the numerous processes occurring during storage leading to an increase in variability, especially for geogenic metals and metalloids such as iron and arsenic. Depending upon the specific water quality parameters and end use, use of ASR may not have a dampening effect on stormwater quality variability. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Changes in photosynthesis and soil moisture drive the seasonal soil respiration-temperature hysteresis relationship

Treesearch

Quan Zhang; Richard P. Phillips; Stefano Manzoni; Russell L. Scott; A. Christopher Oishi; Adrien Finzi; Edoardo Daly; Rodrigo Vargas; Kimberly A. Novick

2018-01-01

In nearly all large-scale terrestrial ecosystem models, soil respiration is represented as a function of soil temperature. However, the relationship between soil respiration and soil temperature is highly variable across sites and there is often a pronounced hysteresis in the soil respiration-temperature relationship over the course of the growing season. This...

POLYCHLORINATED DIBENZO-P-DIOXINS AND DIBENZOFURANS: REMOVAL FROM FLUE GAS AND DISTRIBUTION IN ASH/RESIDUE OF A REFUSE-DERIVED FUEL COMBUSTOR

EPA Science Inventory

The paper gives results of an early-1989 investigation of the effect of changing combustion and flue gas cleaning (FGC) system variables on the performance of these systems. Using information from earlier characterization tests at the same site (Mid-Connecticut facility in Hartfo...

Ranking site vulnerability to increasing temperatures in southern Appalachian brook trout streams in Virginia: An exposure-sensitivity approach

Treesearch

Bradly A. Trumbo; Keith H. Nislow; Jonathan Stallings; Mark Hudy; Eric P. Smith; Dong-Yun Kim; Bruce Wiggins; Charles A. Dolloff

2014-01-01

Models based on simple air temperature–water temperature relationships have been useful in highlighting potential threats to coldwater-dependent species such as Brook Trout Salvelinus fontinalis by predicting major losses of habitat and substantial reductions in geographic distribution. However, spatial variability in the relationship between changes...

Forest tree growth response to hydroclimate variability in the southern Appalachians

Treesearch

Katherine J. Elliott; Chelcy Ford Miniat; Neil Pederson; Stephanie H. Laseter

2015-01-01

Climate change will affect tree species growth and distribution; however, under the same climatic conditions species may differ in their response according to site conditions. We evaluated the climate-driven patterns of growth for six dominant deciduous tree species in the southern Appalachians. We categorized species into two functional groups based on their stomatal...

Reduced-complexity multi-site rainfall generation: one million years over night using the model TripleM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Breinl, Korbinian; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Girons Lopez, Marc

2017-04-01

We assess uncertainties of multi-site rainfall generation across spatial scales and different climatic conditions. Many research subjects in earth sciences such as floods, droughts or water balance simulations require the generation of long rainfall time series. In large study areas the simulation at multiple sites becomes indispensable to account for the spatial rainfall variability, but becomes more complex compared to a single site due to the intermittent nature of rainfall. Weather generators can be used for extrapolating rainfall time series, and various models have been presented in the literature. Even though the large majority of multi-site rainfall generators is based on similar methods, such as resampling techniques or Markovian processes, they often become too complex. We think that this complexity has been a limit for the application of such tools. Furthermore, the majority of multi-site rainfall generators found in the literature are either not publicly available or intended for being applied at small geographical scales, often only in temperate climates. Here we present a revised, and now publicly available, version of a multi-site rainfall generation code first applied in 2014 in Austria and France, which we call TripleM (Multisite Markov Model). We test this fast and robust code with daily rainfall observations from the United States, in a subtropical, tropical and temperate climate, using rain gauge networks with a maximum site distance above 1,000km, thereby generating one million years of synthetic time series. The modelling of these one million years takes one night on a recent desktop computer. In this research, we first start the simulations with a small station network of three sites and progressively increase the number of sites and the spatial extent, and analyze the changing uncertainties for multiple statistical metrics such as dry and wet spells, rainfall autocorrelation, lagged cross correlations and the inter-annual rainfall variability. Our study contributes to the scientific community of earth sciences and the ongoing debate on extreme precipitation in a changing climate by making a stable, and very easily applicable, multi-site rainfall generation code available to the research community and providing a better understanding of the performance of multi-site rainfall generation depending on spatial scales and climatic conditions.

Disentangling how landscape spatial and temporal heterogeneity affects Savanna birds.

PubMed

Price, Bronwyn; McAlpine, Clive A; Kutt, Alex S; Ward, Doug; Phinn, Stuart R; Ludwig, John A

2013-01-01

In highly seasonal tropical environments, temporal changes in habitat and resources are a significant determinant of the spatial distribution of species. This study disentangles the effects of spatial and mid to long-term temporal heterogeneity in habitat on the diversity and abundance of savanna birds by testing four competing conceptual models of varying complexity. Focussing on sites in northeast Australia over a 20 year time period, we used ground cover and foliage projected cover surfaces derived from a time series of Landsat Thematic Mapper imagery, rainfall data and site-level vegetation surveys to derive measures of habitat structure at local (1-100 ha) and landscape (100-1000s ha) scales. We used generalised linear models and an information theoretic approach to test the independent effects of spatial and temporal influences on savanna bird diversity and the abundance of eight species with different life-history behaviours. Of four competing models defining influences on assemblages of savanna birds, the most parsimonious included temporal and spatial variability in vegetation cover and site-scale vegetation structure, suggesting savanna bird species respond to spatial and temporal habitat heterogeneity at both the broader landscape scale and at the fine-scale. The relative weight, strength and direction of the explanatory variables changed with each of the eight species, reflecting their different ecology and behavioural traits. This study demonstrates that variations in the spatial pattern of savanna vegetation over periods of 10 to 20 years at the local and landscape scale strongly affect bird diversity and abundance. Thus, it is essential to monitor and manage both spatial and temporal variability in avian habitat to achieve long-term biodiversity outcomes.

Disentangling How Landscape Spatial and Temporal Heterogeneity Affects Savanna Birds

PubMed Central

Price, Bronwyn; McAlpine, Clive A.; Kutt, Alex S.; Ward, Doug; Phinn, Stuart R.; Ludwig, John A.

2013-01-01

In highly seasonal tropical environments, temporal changes in habitat and resources are a significant determinant of the spatial distribution of species. This study disentangles the effects of spatial and mid to long-term temporal heterogeneity in habitat on the diversity and abundance of savanna birds by testing four competing conceptual models of varying complexity. Focussing on sites in northeast Australia over a 20 year time period, we used ground cover and foliage projected cover surfaces derived from a time series of Landsat Thematic Mapper imagery, rainfall data and site-level vegetation surveys to derive measures of habitat structure at local (1–100 ha) and landscape (100–1000s ha) scales. We used generalised linear models and an information theoretic approach to test the independent effects of spatial and temporal influences on savanna bird diversity and the abundance of eight species with different life-history behaviours. Of four competing models defining influences on assemblages of savanna birds, the most parsimonious included temporal and spatial variability in vegetation cover and site-scale vegetation structure, suggesting savanna bird species respond to spatial and temporal habitat heterogeneity at both the broader landscape scale and at the fine-scale. The relative weight, strength and direction of the explanatory variables changed with each of the eight species, reflecting their different ecology and behavioural traits. This study demonstrates that variations in the spatial pattern of savanna vegetation over periods of 10 to 20 years at the local and landscape scale strongly affect bird diversity and abundance. Thus, it is essential to monitor and manage both spatial and temporal variability in avian habitat to achieve long-term biodiversity outcomes. PMID:24066138

Current temporal trends in moth abundance are counter to predicted effects of climate change in an assemblage of subarctic forest moths.

PubMed

Hunter, Mark D; Kozlov, Mikhail V; Itämies, Juhani; Pulliainen, Erkki; Bäck, Jaana; Kyrö, Ella-Maria; Niemelä, Pekka

2014-06-01

Changes in climate are influencing the distribution and abundance of the world's biota, with significant consequences for biological diversity and ecosystem processes. Recent work has raised concern that populations of moths and butterflies (Lepidoptera) may be particularly susceptible to population declines under environmental change. Moreover, effects of climate change may be especially pronounced in high latitude ecosystems. Here, we examine population dynamics in an assemblage of subarctic forest moths in Finnish Lapland to assess current trajectories of population change. Moth counts were made continuously over a period of 32 years using light traps. From 456 species recorded, 80 were sufficiently abundant for detailed analyses of their population dynamics. Climate records indicated rapid increases in temperature and winter precipitation at our study site during the sampling period. However, 90% of moth populations were stable (57%) or increasing (33%) over the same period of study. Nonetheless, current population trends do not appear to reflect positive responses to climate change. Rather, time-series models illustrated that the per capita rates of change of moth species were more frequently associated negatively than positively with climate change variables, even as their populations were increasing. For example, the per capita rates of change of 35% of microlepidoptera were associated negatively with climate change variables. Moth life-history traits were not generally strong predictors of current population change or associations with climate change variables. However, 60% of moth species that fed as larvae on resources other than living vascular plants (e.g. litter, lichen, mosses) were associated negatively with climate change variables in time-series models, suggesting that such species may be particularly vulnerable to climate change. Overall, populations of subarctic forest moths in Finland are performing better than expected, and their populations appear buffered at present from potential deleterious effects of climate change by other ecological forces. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Braking effect of climate and topography on global change-induced upslope forest expansion.

PubMed

Alatalo, Juha M; Ferrarini, Alessandro

2017-03-01

Forests are expected to expand into alpine areas due to global climate change. It has recently been shown that temperature alone cannot realistically explain this process and that upslope tree advance in a warmer scenario may depend on the availability of sites with adequate geomorphic/topographic characteristics. Here, we show that, besides topography (slope and aspect), climate itself can produce a braking effect on the upslope advance of subalpine forests and that tree limit is influenced by non-linear and non-monotonic contributions of the climate variables which act upon treeline upslope advance with varying relative strengths. Our results suggest that global climate change impact on the upslope advance of subalpine forests should be interpreted in a more complex way where climate can both speed up and slow down the process depending on complex patterns of contribution from each climate and non-climate variable.

Indian-Southern Ocean Latitudinal Transect (ISOLAT): A proposal for the recovery of high-resolution sedimentary records in the western Indian Ocean sector of the Southern Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mackensen, A.; Zahn, R.; Hall, I.; Kuhn, G.; Koc, N.; Francois, R.; Hemming, S.; Goldstein, S.; Rogers, J.; Ehrmann, W.

2003-04-01

Quantifying oceanic variability at timescales of oceanic, atmospheric, and cryospheric processes are the fundamental objectives of the international IMAGES program. In this context the Southern Ocean plays a leading role in that it is involved, through its influence on global ocean circulation and carbon budget, with the development and maintenance of the Earth's climate system. The seas surrounding Antarctica contain the world's only zonal circum-global current system that entrains water masses from the three main ocean basins, and maintains the thermal isolation of Antarctica from warmer surface waters to the north. Furthermore, the Southern Ocean is a major site of bottom and intermediate water formation and thus actively impacts the global thermohaline circulation (THC). This proposal is an outcome of the IMAGES Southern Ocean Working Group and constitutes one component of a suite of new IMAGES/IODP initiatives that aim at resolving past variability of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) on orbital and sub-orbital timescales and its involvement with rapid global ocean variability and climate instability. The primary aim of this proposal is to determine millennial- to sub-centennial scale variability of the ACC and the ensuing Atlantic-Indian water transports, including surface transports and deep-water flow. We will focus on periods of rapid ocean and climate change and assess the role of the Southern Ocean in these changes, both in terms of its thermohaline circulation and biogeochemical inventories. We propose a suite of 11 sites that form a latitudinal transect across the ACC in the westernmost Indian Ocean sector of the Southern Ocean. The transect is designed to allow the reconstruction of ACC variability across a range of latitudes in conjunction with meridional shifts of the surface ocean fronts. The northernmost reaches of the transect extend into the Agulhas Current and its retroflection system which is a key component of the THC warm water return flow to the Atlantic. The principal topics are: (i) the response of the ACC to climate variability; (ii) the history of the Southern Ocean surface ocean fronts during periods of rapid climate change; (iii) the history of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) export to the deep South Indian Ocean; (iv) the variability of Southern Ocean biogeochemical fluxes and their influence on Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) carbon inventories and atmospheric chemistry; and (v) the variability of surface ocean fronts and the Indian-Atlantic surface ocean density flux. To achieve these objectives we will generate fine-scale records of palaeoceanographic proxies that are linked to a variety of climatically relevant ocean parameters. Temporal resolution of the records, depending on sedimentation rates, will range from millennial to sub-centennial time scales. Highest sedimentation rates are expected at coring sites located on current-controlled sediment drifts, whereas dense sampling of cores with moderate sedimentation rates will enable at least millennial-scale events to be resolved.

SPAGETTA, a Gridded Weather Generator: Calibration, Validation and its Use for Future Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dubrovsky, Martin; Rotach, Mathias W.; Huth, Radan

2017-04-01

Spagetta is a new (started in 2016) stochastic multi-site multi-variate weather generator (WG). It can produce realistic synthetic daily (or monthly, or annual) weather series representing both present and future climate conditions at multiple sites (grids or stations irregularly distributed in space). The generator, whose model is based on the Wilks' (1999) multi-site extension of the parametric (Richardson's type) single site M&Rfi generator, may be run in two modes: In the first mode, it is run as a classical generator, which is calibrated in the first step using weather data from multiple sites, and only then it may produce arbitrarily long synthetic time series mimicking the spatial and temporal structure of the calibration weather data. To generate the weather series representing the future climate, the WG parameters are modified according to the climate change scenario, typically derived from GCM or RCM simulations. In the second mode, the user provides only basic information (not necessarily to be realistic) on the temporal and spatial auto-correlation structure of the surface weather variables and their mean annual cycle; the generator itself derives the parameters of the underlying autoregressive model, which produces the multi-site weather series. In the latter mode of operation, the user is allowed to prescribe the spatially varying trend, which is superimposed to the values produced by the generator; this feature has been implemented for use in developing the methodology for assessing significance of trends in multi-site weather series (for more details see another EGU-2017 contribution: Huth and Dubrovsky, 2017, Evaluating collective significance of climatic trends: A comparison of methods on synthetic data; EGU2017-4993). This contribution will focus on the first (classical) mode. The poster will present (a) model of the generator, (b) results of the validation tests made in terms of the spatial hot/cold/dry/wet spells, and (c) results of the pilot climate change impact experiment, in which (i) the WG parameters representing the spatial and temporal variability are modified using the climate change scenarios and then (ii) the effect on the above spatial validation indices derived from the synthetic series produced by the modified WG is analysed. In this experiment, the generator is calibrated using the E-OBS gridded daily weather data for several European regions, and the climate change scenarios are derived from the selected RCM simulation (taken from the CORDEX database).

Use of a Weather Generator for analysis of projections of future daily temperature and its validation with climate change indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Piazza, A.; Cordano, E.; Eccel, E.

2012-04-01

The issue of climate change detection is considered a major challenge. In particular, high temporal resolution climate change scenarios are required in the evaluation of the effects of climate change on agricultural management (crop suitability, yields, risk assessment, etc.) energy production and water management. In this work, a "Weather Generator" technique was used for downscaling climate change scenarios for temperature. An R package (RMAWGEN, Cordano and Eccel, 2011 - available on http://cran.r-project.org) was developed aiming to generate synthetic daily weather conditions by using the theory of vectorial auto-regressive models (VAR). The VAR model was chosen for its ability in maintaining the temporal and spatial correlations among variables. In particular, observed time series of daily maximum and minimum temperature are transformed into "new" normally-distributed variable time series which are used to calibrate the parameters of a VAR model by using ordinary least square methods. Therefore the implemented algorithm, applied to monthly mean climatic values downscaled by Global Climate Model predictions, can generate several stochastic daily scenarios where the statistical consistency among series is saved. Further details are present in RMAWGEN documentation. An application is presented here by using a dataset with daily temperature time series recorded in 41 different sites of Trentino region for the period 1958-2010. Temperature time series were pre-processed to fill missing values (by a site-specific calibrated Inverse Distance Weighting algorithm, corrected with elevation) and to remove inhomogeneities. Several climatic indices were taken into account, useful for several impact assessment applications, and their time trends within the time series were analyzed. The indices go from the more classical ones, as annual mean temperatures, seasonal mean temperatures and their anomalies (from the reference period 1961-1990) to the climate change indices selected from the list recommended by the World Meteorological Organization Commission for Climatology (WMO-CCL) and the Research Programme on Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) project's Expert Team on Climate Change Detection, Monitoring and Indices (ETCCDMI). Each index was applied to both observed (and processed) data and to synthetic time series produced by the Weather Generator, over the thirty year reference period 1981-2010, in order to validate the procedure. Climate projections were statistically downscaled for a selection of sites for the two 30-year periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2099 of the European project "Ensembles" multi-model output (scenario A1B). The use of several climatic indices strengthens the trend analysis of both the generated synthetic series and future climate projections.

Thermal regimes, nonnative trout, and their influences on native Bull Trout in the Upper Klamath River Basin, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Benjamin, Joseph R.; Heltzel, Jeannie; Dunham, Jason B.; Heck, Michael; Banish, Nolan P.

2016-01-01

The occurrence of fish species may be strongly influenced by a stream’s thermal regime (magnitude, frequency, variation, and timing). For instance, magnitude and frequency provide information about sublethal temperatures, variability in temperature can affect behavioral thermoregulation and bioenergetics, and timing of thermal events may cue life history events, such as spawning and migration. We explored the relationship between thermal regimes and the occurrences of native Bull Trout Salvelinus confluentus and nonnative Brook Trout Salvelinus fontinalis and Brown Trout Salmo trutta across 87 sites in the upper Klamath River basin, Oregon. Our objectives were to associate descriptors of the thermal regime with trout occurrence, predict the probability of Bull Trout occurrence, and estimate upper thermal tolerances of the trout species. We found that each species was associated with a different suite of thermal regime descriptors. Bull Trout were present at sites that were cooler, had fewer high-temperature events, had less variability, and took longer to warm. Brook Trout were also observed at cooler sites with fewer high-temperature events, but the sites were more variable and Brook Trout occurrence was not associated with a timing descriptor. In contrast, Brown Trout were present at sites that were warmer and reached higher temperatures faster, but they were not associated with frequency or variability descriptors. Among the descriptors considered, magnitude (specifically June degree-days) was the most important in predicting the probability of Bull Trout occurrence, and model predictions were strengthened by including Brook Trout occurrence. Last, all three trout species exhibited contrasting patterns of tolerating longer exposures to lower temperatures. Tolerance limits for Bull Trout were lower than those for Brook Trout and Brown Trout, with contrasts especially evident for thermal maxima. Our results confirm the value of exploring a suite of thermal regime descriptors for understanding the distribution and occurrence of fishes. Moreover, these descriptors and their relationships to fish should be considered with future changes in land use, water use, or climate.

Multi-model analysis of terrestrial carbon cycles in Japan: limitations and implications of model calibration using eddy flux observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ichii, K.; Suzuki, T.; Kato, T.; Ito, A.; Hajima, T.; Ueyama, M.; Sasai, T.; Hirata, R.; Saigusa, N.; Ohtani, Y.; Takagi, K.

2010-07-01

Terrestrial biosphere models show large differences when simulating carbon and water cycles, and reducing these differences is a priority for developing more accurate estimates of the condition of terrestrial ecosystems and future climate change. To reduce uncertainties and improve the understanding of their carbon budgets, we investigated the utility of the eddy flux datasets to improve model simulations and reduce variabilities among multi-model outputs of terrestrial biosphere models in Japan. Using 9 terrestrial biosphere models (Support Vector Machine - based regressions, TOPS, CASA, VISIT, Biome-BGC, DAYCENT, SEIB, LPJ, and TRIFFID), we conducted two simulations: (1) point simulations at four eddy flux sites in Japan and (2) spatial simulations for Japan with a default model (based on original settings) and a modified model (based on model parameter tuning using eddy flux data). Generally, models using default model settings showed large deviations in model outputs from observation with large model-by-model variability. However, after we calibrated the model parameters using eddy flux data (GPP, RE and NEP), most models successfully simulated seasonal variations in the carbon cycle, with less variability among models. We also found that interannual variations in the carbon cycle are mostly consistent among models and observations. Spatial analysis also showed a large reduction in the variability among model outputs. This study demonstrated that careful validation and calibration of models with available eddy flux data reduced model-by-model differences. Yet, site history, analysis of model structure changes, and more objective procedure of model calibration should be included in the further analysis.

Assessment of Low Cycle Fatigue Behavior of Powder Metallurgy Alloy U720

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gabb, Tomothy P.; Bonacuse, Peter J.; Ghosn, Louis J.; Sweeney, Joseph W.; Chatterjee, Amit; Green, Kenneth A.

2000-01-01

The fatigue lives of modem powder metallurgy disk alloys are influenced by variabilities in alloy microstructure and mechanical properties. These properties can vary as functions of variables the different steps of materials/component processing: powder atomization, consolidation, extrusion, forging, heat treating, and machining. It is important to understand the relationship between the statistical variations in life and these variables, as well as the change in life distribution due to changes in fatigue loading conditions. The objective of this study was to investigate these relationships in a nickel-base disk superalloy, U720, produced using powder metallurgy processing. Multiple strain-controlled fatigue tests were performed at 538 C (1000 F) at limited sets of test conditions. Analyses were performed to: (1) assess variations of microstructure, mechanical properties, and LCF failure initiation sites as functions of disk processing and loading conditions; and (2) compare mean and minimum fatigue life predictions using different approaches for modeling the data from assorted test conditions. Significant variations in life were observed as functions of the disk processing variables evaluated. However, the lives of all specimens could still be combined and modeled together. The failure initiation sites for tests performed at a strain ratio R(sub epsilon) = epsilon(sub min)/epsilon(sub max) of 0 were different from those in tests at a strain ratio of -1. An approach could still be applied to account for the differences in mean and maximum stresses and strains. This allowed the data in tests of various conditions to be combined for more robust statistical estimates of mean and minimum lives.

Variability in solar radiation and temperature explains observed patterns and trends in tree growth rates across four tropical forests.

PubMed

Dong, Shirley Xiaobi; Davies, Stuart J; Ashton, Peter S; Bunyavejchewin, Sarayudh; Supardi, M N Nur; Kassim, Abd Rahman; Tan, Sylvester; Moorcroft, Paul R

2012-10-07

The response of tropical forests to global climate variability and change remains poorly understood. Results from long-term studies of permanent forest plots have reported different, and in some cases opposing trends in tropical forest dynamics. In this study, we examined changes in tree growth rates at four long-term permanent tropical forest research plots in relation to variation in solar radiation, temperature and precipitation. Temporal variation in the stand-level growth rates measured at five-year intervals was found to be positively correlated with variation in incoming solar radiation and negatively related to temporal variation in night-time temperatures. Taken alone, neither solar radiation variability nor the effects of night-time temperatures can account for the observed temporal variation in tree growth rates across sites, but when considered together, these two climate variables account for most of the observed temporal variability in tree growth rates. Further analysis indicates that the stand-level response is primarily driven by the responses of smaller-sized trees (less than 20 cm in diameter). The combined temperature and radiation responses identified in this study provide a potential explanation for the conflicting patterns in tree growth rates found in previous studies.

Phenological and physiological mechanisms underlying interannual variability of terrestrial net ecosystem production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niu, S.; Luo, Y.; Hui, D.; Chen, J.

2013-12-01

The interannual variability (IAV) of atmospheric CO2 concentration varies substantial and is largely ascribed to IAV of terrestrial ecosystem carbon fluxes. However, we have limited understanding on the mechanisms that control the IAV on the carbon flux of terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we hypothesized that physiological and phonological processes regulate IAV significantly in terrestrial carbon uptake (i.e., net ecosystem production, NEP). To test this hypothesis, we analyzed eddy-covariance data from 24 sites with more than 8 years data in deciduous broadleaf forests (DBF), evergreen forests (EF), and grasslands (GRA) in the northern hemisphere. Ecosystem physiology is represented by the maximum carbon uptake capacity (NEPmax) in one year whereas phonology is represented by carbon uptake period (CUP). We found that yearly anomalies of CUP and NEPmax accounted for 40% and 60% separately, and 73% in combination, of the anomalies in annual NEP across all the 253 site-years, with their relative contributions varying among the sites. The IAV of CUP was determined by the anomalies of spring and autumn carbon uptake phenology, both of which were sensitive to climate changes but controlled by different environmental factors in different biomes. IAV of NEPmax was determined by summer precipitation anomalies in DBF and GRA. The results suggest that IAV of NEP is consistently co-determined by CUP and NEPmax anomalies among sites in the northern hemisphere. Overall, the mechanisms revealed by our study on NEP anomalies through changing in phenology and physiology contribute to predictive understanding of temporal dynamics of terrestrial carbon uptake.

Impacts of Synoptic Weather Patterns on Snow Albedo at Sites in New England

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adolph, A. C.; Albert, M. R.; Lazarcik, J.; Dibb, J. E.; Amante, J.; Price, A. N.

2015-12-01

Winter snow in the northeastern United States has changed over the last several decades, resulting in shallower snow packs, fewer days of snow cover and increasing precipitation falling as rain in the winter. In addition to these changes which cause reductions in surface albedo, increasing winter temperatures also lead to more rapid snow grain growth, resulting in decreased snow reflectivity. We present in-situ measurements and analyses to test the sensitivity of seasonal snow albedo to varying weather conditions at sites in New England. In particular, we investigate the impact of temperature on snow albedo through melt and grain growth, the impact of precipitation event frequency on albedo through snow "freshening," and the impact of storm path on snow structure and snow albedo. Over three winter seasons between 2013 and 2015, in-situ snow characterization measurements were made at three non-forested sites across New Hampshire. These near-daily measurements include spectrally resolved albedo, snow optical grain size determined through contact spectroscopy, snow depth, snow density and local meteorological parameters. Combining this information with storm tracks derived from HYSPLIT modeling, we quantify the current sensitivity of northeastern US snow albedo to temperature as well as precipitation type, frequency and path. Our analysis shows that southerly winter storms result in snow with a significantly lower albedo than storms which come from across the continental US or the Atlantic Ocean. Interannual variability in temperature and statewide spatial variability in snowfall rates at our sites show the relative importance of snowfall amount and temperatures in albedo evolution over the course of the winter.

Non-Random Variability in Functional Composition of Coral Reef Fish Communities along an Environmental Gradient.

PubMed

Plass-Johnson, Jeremiah G; Taylor, Marc H; Husain, Aidah A A; Teichberg, Mirta C; Ferse, Sebastian C A

2016-01-01

Changes in the coral reef complex can affect predator-prey relationships, resource availability and niche utilisation in the associated fish community, which may be reflected in decreased stability of the functional traits present in a community. This is because particular traits may be favoured by a changing environment, or by habitat degradation. Furthermore, other traits can be selected against because degradation can relax the association between fishes and benthic habitat. We characterised six important ecological traits for fish species occurring at seven sites across a disturbed coral reef archipelago in Indonesia, where reefs have been exposed to eutrophication and destructive fishing practices for decades. Functional diversity was assessed using two complementary indices (FRic and RaoQ) and correlated to important environmental factors (live coral cover and rugosity, representing local reef health, and distance from shore, representing a cross-shelf environmental gradient). Indices were examined for both a change in their mean, as well as temporal (short-term; hours) and spatial (cross-shelf) variability, to assess whether fish-habitat association became relaxed along with habitat degradation. Furthermore, variability in individual traits was examined to identify the traits that are most affected by habitat change. Increases in the general reef health indicators, live coral cover and rugosity (correlated with distance from the mainland), were associated with decreases in the variability of functional diversity and with community-level changes in the abundance of several traits (notably home range size, maximum length, microalgae, detritus and small invertebrate feeding and reproductive turnover). A decrease in coral cover increased variability of RaoQ while rugosity and distance both inversely affected variability of FRic; however, averages for these indices did not reveal patterns associated with the environment. These results suggest that increased degradation of coral reefs is associated with increased variability in fish community functional composition resulting from selective impacts on specific traits, thereby affecting the functional response of these communities to increasing perturbations.

Non-Random Variability in Functional Composition of Coral Reef Fish Communities along an Environmental Gradient

PubMed Central

Plass-Johnson, Jeremiah G.; Taylor, Marc H.; Husain, Aidah A. A.; Teichberg, Mirta C.; Ferse, Sebastian C. A.

2016-01-01

Changes in the coral reef complex can affect predator-prey relationships, resource availability and niche utilisation in the associated fish community, which may be reflected in decreased stability of the functional traits present in a community. This is because particular traits may be favoured by a changing environment, or by habitat degradation. Furthermore, other traits can be selected against because degradation can relax the association between fishes and benthic habitat. We characterised six important ecological traits for fish species occurring at seven sites across a disturbed coral reef archipelago in Indonesia, where reefs have been exposed to eutrophication and destructive fishing practices for decades. Functional diversity was assessed using two complementary indices (FRic and RaoQ) and correlated to important environmental factors (live coral cover and rugosity, representing local reef health, and distance from shore, representing a cross-shelf environmental gradient). Indices were examined for both a change in their mean, as well as temporal (short-term; hours) and spatial (cross-shelf) variability, to assess whether fish-habitat association became relaxed along with habitat degradation. Furthermore, variability in individual traits was examined to identify the traits that are most affected by habitat change. Increases in the general reef health indicators, live coral cover and rugosity (correlated with distance from the mainland), were associated with decreases in the variability of functional diversity and with community-level changes in the abundance of several traits (notably home range size, maximum length, microalgae, detritus and small invertebrate feeding and reproductive turnover). A decrease in coral cover increased variability of RaoQ while rugosity and distance both inversely affected variability of FRic; however, averages for these indices did not reveal patterns associated with the environment. These results suggest that increased degradation of coral reefs is associated with increased variability in fish community functional composition resulting from selective impacts on specific traits, thereby affecting the functional response of these communities to increasing perturbations. PMID:27100189

[Variability of soil water soluble organic carbon content and its response to temperature change in green spaces along urban-to-rural gradient of Nanchang, China].

PubMed

Li, Pei-qing; Fang, Xiang-min; Chen, Fu-sheng; Wang, Fang-chao; Yu, Jin-rong; Wan, Song-ze; Li, Zu-yao

2015-11-01

Topsoil of green space including typical forest, shrub and grassland were collected to measure their water soluble organic carbon ( WSOC) before and after incubation of 30 days at 5, 15, 25, 35 and, 45 °C. The results showed the average values of WSOC were higher in urban than in rural green spaces, but the percentage of WSOC to total organic carbon (TOC) showed an opposite trend. No significant changes were found among the three green space types in WSOC and WSOC/TOC. Response of WSOC in green space to incubation temperature was generally highest in urban sites, followed by suburban sites, and lowest in rural sites at the incubation temperature of 5 °C, but showed an opposite trend at the temperature of 45 °C. Response coefficient of WSOC to temperature change was lower in forest and shrub than in grassland, but increased along the urban-rural gradient. Further analysis showed that WSOC positively correlated with TOC, total nitrogen and available phosphorus, and the response coefficient of WSOC to temperature change negatively correlated with available phosphorus. In summary, exogenous substances input might lead to the accumulation of WSOC in urban green space, however, urban environment was helpful to maintain the stability of WSOC, which might be due to the enrichment of available phosphorus in urban sites.

Continuous water-quality monitoring and regression analysis to estimate constituent concentrations and loads in the Sheyenne River, North Dakota, 1980-2006

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ryberg, Karen R.

2007-01-01

This report presents the results of a study by the U.S. Geological Survey, done in cooperation with the North Dakota State Water Commission, to estimate water-quality constituent concentrations at seven sites on the Sheyenne River, N. Dak. Regression analysis of water-quality data collected in 1980-2006 was used to estimate concentrations for hardness, dissolved solids, calcium, magnesium, sodium, and sulfate. The explanatory variables examined for the regression relations were continuously monitored streamflow, specific conductance, and water temperature. For the conditions observed in 1980-2006, streamflow was a significant explanatory variable for some constituents. Specific conductance was a significant explanatory variable for all of the constituents, and water temperature was not a statistically significant explanatory variable for any of the constituents in this study. The regression relations were evaluated using common measures of variability, including R2, the proportion of variability in the estimated constituent concentration explained by the explanatory variables and regression equation. R2 values ranged from 0.784 for calcium to 0.997 for dissolved solids. The regression relations also were evaluated by calculating the median relative percentage difference (RPD) between measured constituent concentration and the constituent concentration estimated by the regression equations. Median RPDs ranged from 1.7 for dissolved solids to 11.5 for sulfate. The regression relations also may be used to estimate daily constituent loads. The relations should be monitored for change over time, especially at sites 2 and 3 which have a short period of record. In addition, caution should be used when the Sheyenne River is affected by ice or when upstream sites are affected by isolated storm runoff. Almost all of the outliers and highly influential samples removed from the analysis were made during periods when the Sheyenne River might be affected by ice.

Effects of climate and water balance across grasslands of varying C3 and C4 grass cover

USGS Publications Warehouse

Witwicki, Dana L.; Munson, Seth M.; Thoma, David P.

2016-01-01

Climate change in grassland ecosystems may lead to divergent shifts in the abundance and distribution of C3 and C4 grasses. Many studies relate mean climate conditions over relatively long time periods to plant cover, but there is still much uncertainty about how the balance of C3and C4 species will be affected by climate at a finer temporal scale than season (individual events to months). We monitored cover at five grassland sites with co-dominant C3 and C4 grass species or only dominant C3 grass species for 6 yr in national parks across the Colorado Plateau region to assess the influence of specific months of climate and water balance on changes in grass cover. C4 grass cover increased and decreased to a larger degree than C3 grass cover with extremely dry and wet consecutive years, but this response varied by ecological site. Climate and water balance explained 10–49% of the inter-annual variability of cover of C3 and C4 grasses at all sites. High precipitation in the spring and in previous year monsoon storms influenced changes in cover of C4 grasses, with measures of water balance in the same months explaining additional variability. C3 grasses in grasslands where they were dominant were influenced primarily by longer periods of climate, while C3 grasses in grasslands where they were co-dominant with C4 grasses were influenced little by climate anomalies at either short or long periods of time. Our results suggest that future changes in spring and summer climate and water balance are likely to affect cover of both C3 and C4 grasses, but cover of C4 grasses may be affected more strongly, and the degree of change will depend on soils and topography where they are growing and the timing of the growing season.

Probing Conformational Changes and Interfacial Recognition Site of Lipases With Surfactants and Inhibitors.

PubMed

Mateos-Diaz, E; Amara, S; Roussel, A; Longhi, S; Cambillau, C; Carrière, F

2017-01-01

Structural studies on lipases by X-ray crystallography have revealed conformational changes occurring in the presence of surfactants/inhibitors and the pivotal role played by a molecular "lid" of variable size and structure depending on the enzyme. Besides controlling the access to the enzyme active site, the lid is involved in lipase activation, formation of the interfacial recognition site (IRS), and substrate docking within the active site. The combined use of surfactants and inhibitors has been critical for a better understanding of lipase structure-function relationships. An overview of crystal structures of lipases in complex with surfactants and inhibitors reveals common structural features and shows how surfactants monomers interact with the lid in its open conformation. The location of surfactants, inhibitors, and hydrophobic residues exposed upon lid opening provides insights into the IRS of lipases. The mechanism by which surfactants promote the lid opening can be further investigated in solution by site-directed spin labeling of lipase coupled to electron paramagnetic resonance spectroscopy. These experimental approaches are illustrated here by results obtained with mammalian digestive lipases, fungal lipases, and cutinases. © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Climate variability and human impact in South America during the last 2000 years: synthesis and perspectives from pollen records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flantua, S. G. A.; Hooghiemstra, H.; Vuille, M.; Behling, H.; Carson, J. F.; Gosling, W. D.; Hoyos, I.; Ledru, M. P.; Montoya, E.; Mayle, F.; Maldonado, A.; Rull, V.; Tonello, M. S.; Whitney, B. S.; González-Arango, C.

2016-02-01

An improved understanding of present-day climate variability and change relies on high-quality data sets from the past 2 millennia. Global efforts to model regional climate modes are in the process of being validated against, and integrated with, records of past vegetation change. For South America, however, the full potential of vegetation records for evaluating and improving climate models has hitherto not been sufficiently acknowledged due to an absence of information on the spatial and temporal coverage of study sites. This paper therefore serves as a guide to high-quality pollen records that capture environmental variability during the last 2 millennia. We identify 60 vegetation (pollen) records from across South America which satisfy geochronological requirements set out for climate modelling, and we discuss their sensitivity to the spatial signature of climate modes throughout the continent. Diverse patterns of vegetation response to climate change are observed, with more similar patterns of change in the lowlands and varying intensity and direction of responses in the highlands. Pollen records display local-scale responses to climate modes; thus, it is necessary to understand how vegetation-climate interactions might diverge under variable settings. We provide a qualitative translation from pollen metrics to climate variables. Additionally, pollen is an excellent indicator of human impact through time. We discuss evidence for human land use in pollen records and provide an overview considered useful for archaeological hypothesis testing and important in distinguishing natural from anthropogenically driven vegetation change. We stress the need for the palynological community to be more familiar with climate variability patterns to correctly attribute the potential causes of observed vegetation dynamics. This manuscript forms part of the wider LOng-Term multi-proxy climate REconstructions and Dynamics in South America - 2k initiative that provides the ideal framework for the integration of the various palaeoclimatic subdisciplines and palaeo-science, thereby jump-starting and fostering multidisciplinary research into environmental change on centennial and millennial timescales.

Contrasting Hydraulic Architectures of Scots Pine and Sessile Oak at Their Southernmost Distribution Limits

PubMed Central

Martínez-Sancho, Elisabet; Dorado-Liñán, Isabel; Hacke, Uwe G.; Seidel, Hannes; Menzel, Annette

2017-01-01

Many temperate European tree species have their southernmost distribution limits in the Mediterranean Basin. The projected climatic conditions, particularly an increase in dryness, might induce an altitudinal and latitudinal retreat at their southernmost distribution limit. Therefore, characterizing the morphological and physiological variability of temperate tree species under dry conditions is essential to understand species’ responses to expected climate change. In this study, we compared branch-level hydraulic traits of four Scots pine and four sessile oak natural stands located at the western and central Mediterranean Basin to assess their adjustment to water limiting conditions. Hydraulic traits such as xylem- and leaf-specific maximum hydraulic conductivity (KS-MAX and KL-MAX), leaf-to-xylem area ratio (AL:AX) and functional xylem fraction (FX) were measured in July 2015 during a long and exceptionally dry summer. Additionally, xylem-specific native hydraulic conductivity (KS-N) and native percentage of loss of hydraulic conductivity (PLC) were measured for Scots pine. Interspecific differences in these hydraulic traits as well as intraspecific variability between sites were assessed. The influence of annual, summer and growing season site climatic aridity (P/PET) on intraspecific variability was investigated. Sessile oak displayed higher values of KS-MAX, KL-MAX, AL:AX but a smaller percentage of FX than Scots pines. Scots pine did not vary in any of the measured hydraulic traits across the sites, and PLC values were low for all sites, even during one of the warmest summers in the region. In contrast, sessile oak showed significant differences in KS-MAX, KL-MAX, and FX across sites, which were significantly related to site aridity. The striking similarity in the hydraulic traits across Scots pine sites suggests that no adjustment in hydraulic architecture was needed, likely as a consequence of a drought-avoidance strategy. In contrast, sessile oak displayed adjustments in the hydraulic architecture along an aridity gradient, pointing to a drought-tolerance strategy. PMID:28473841

Trends in Water Quality in the Southeastern United States, 1973-2005

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harned, Douglas A.; Staub, Erik L.; Peak, Kelly L.; Tighe, Kirsten M.; Terziotti, Silvia

2009-01-01

As part of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Quality Assessment Program, water-quality data for 334 streams in eight States of the Southeastern United States were assessed for trends from 1973 to 2005. Forty-four U.S. Geological Survey sites were examined for trends in pH, specific conductance, and dissolved oxygen, and in concentrations of dissolved solids, suspended sediment, chloride, sodium, sulfate, silica, potassium, dissolved organic carbon, total nitrogen, total ammonia, total ammonia plus organic nitrogen, dissolved nitrite plus nitrate, and total phosphorus. An additional 290 sites from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Storage and Retrieval database were tested for trends in total nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations for the 1975-2004 and 1993-2004 periods. The seasonal Kendall test or Tobit regression was used to detect trends. Concentrations of dissolved constituents have increased in the Southeast during the last 30 years. Specific conductance increased at 62 percent and decreased at 3 percent of the sites, and pH increased at 31 percent and decreased at 11 percent of the sites. Decreasing trends in total nitrogen were detected at 49 percent of the sites, and increasing trends were detected at 10 percent of the sites. Ammonia concentrations decreased at 27 percent of the sites and increased at 6 percent of the sites. Nitrite plus nitrate concentrations increased at 29 percent of the sites and decreased at 10 percent of the sites. These results indicate that the changes in stream nitrogen concentrations generally coincided with improved municipal wastewater-treatment methods. Long-term decreasing trends in total phosphorus were detected at 56 percent of the sites, and increasing trends were detected at 8 percent of the sites. Concentrations of phosphorus have decreased over the last 35 years, which coincided with phosphate-detergent bans and improvements in wastewater treatment that were implemented beginning in 1972. Multiple regression analysis indicated a relation between changes in atmospheric inputs and agricultural practices, and changes in water quality. A long-term water-quality and landscape trends-assessment network for the Southeast is needed to assess changes in water quality over time in response to variations in population, agricultural, wastewater, and landscape variables.

Multi-Wheat-Model Ensemble Responses to Interannual Climate Variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruane, Alex C.; Hudson, Nicholas I.; Asseng, Senthold; Camarrano, Davide; Ewert, Frank; Martre, Pierre; Boote, Kenneth J.; Thorburn, Peter J.; Aggarwal, Pramod K.; Angulo, Carlos

2016-01-01

We compare 27 wheat models' yield responses to interannual climate variability, analyzed at locations in Argentina, Australia, India, and The Netherlands as part of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Wheat Pilot. Each model simulated 1981e2010 grain yield, and we evaluate results against the interannual variability of growing season temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation. The amount of information used for calibration has only a minor effect on most models' climate response, and even small multi-model ensembles prove beneficial. Wheat model clusters reveal common characteristics of yield response to climate; however models rarely share the same cluster at all four sites indicating substantial independence. Only a weak relationship (R2 0.24) was found between the models' sensitivities to interannual temperature variability and their response to long-termwarming, suggesting that additional processes differentiate climate change impacts from observed climate variability analogs and motivating continuing analysis and model development efforts.

Long Term Monitoring Trends In The Southeastern U.S.: Changes In Atmospheric Chemistry?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blanchard, C. L.; Hidy, G. M.

2013-12-01

The SOS/SEARCH network has measured air pollutant concentrations in the southeastern U.S. since 1992, providing context for the 2013 Southeastern Organic Aerosol Study (SOAS). Ambient concentrations and species ratios indicate evolution in atmospheric chemistry. Since 1999, ~50 percent decreases in anthropogenic SOx, NOx, CO, and VOC emissions reduced gas and fine particle concentrations at all SEARCH sites. Primary but not secondary pollutant concentration decreases were approximately proportional to emission declines. Mean annual ambient SO2 mixing ratios at rural SEARCH sites decreased in proportion to annual SO2 emissions, whereas mean annual PM2.5 sulfate (SO4) concentrations decreased until 2009 but then showed minimal change despite continuing SO2 emission reductions. This difference suggests a change in oxidant-SO2 relationships. Between 1999 and 2012, the mean ratios of SO2/SOx (SOx = SO2 + SO4, molar basis) decreased from 0.68 × 0.04 to 0.57 × 0.05 and from 0.73 × 0.05 to 0.59 × 0.05 at two rural sites, indicating changes in SO4 production. Mean annual mixing ratios of oxidized nitrogen species (NOy) at rural sites decreased from 5.8 × 1.9 ppbv in 1992 to 4.8 × 1.4 ppbv in 2002 and 2.4 × 0.5 ppbv in 2012, proportional to NOx emission changes. Mean annual afternoon (noon through 4 p.m.) ratios of NOz/NOy (NOz = NOy - NOx) at rural sites varied between 0.36 and 0.63 from 1997 to 2011, without showing trends. Mean afternoon O3/NOy ratios increased at both urban and non-urban sites, e.g., from 8.3 × 0.4 in 1992 to 11.5 × 0.5 in 1999 and 19.9 × 0.9 in 2011 in rural Alabama, and from 2.0 × 0.1 in 1999 to 4.9 × 0.3 in 2011 in Atlanta, suggesting increased oxidation rates. Regression of daily peak 8-hour O3 against afternoon NOz yielded slopes ranging from urban 4.02 × 0.15 to rural 11.32 × 0.42, reflecting higher O3 production efficiency (OPE) at rural compared to urban sites. The OPE exhibited year-to-year variability with increasing trends at each site, e.g., from 9.8 × 0.8 in 2002 to 16.6 × 1.0 in 2011 and increasing at 1.06 × 0.39 units per year at one rural location. Year-to-year variability of mean O3, O3/NOy, O3/NOz, and NOz/NOy was related to meteorological variability. Anthropogenic emissions of VOCs in AL, GA, and MS decreased by 39 percent from 2002 to 2011, with proportionately larger decreases in mean annual NMOC in Atlanta, GA from 1999 to 2008. Mean annual mixing ratios of total NMOC decreased from 285 × 13 ppbC in 1999 to 120 × 4 ppbC in 2008; toluene and benzene decreased respectively from 14.8 × 0.8 ppbC and 4.5 × 0.2 ppbC in 1999 to 5.7 × 0.2 ppbC and 2.0 × 0.1 ppbC in 2008. The OH reactivity of the NMOC mixtures changed negligibly. The Atlanta mean NMOC/NOy varied from 4.8 × 0.3 in 1999 to 3.6 × 0.2 in 2008 without significant trend. Peak O3 and precursor concentrations suggest a transition from VOC to NOx sensitivity of O3 occurring between urban Atlanta and its rural surroundings. Particle composition showed significant reductions of SO4 and of organic and elemental carbon at all sites from 1999 to 2011. Mean PM2.5 nitrate (NO3) concentrations ranged from 0.3 - 0.9 μg m-3 at rural and coastal sites and 0.5 - 1.1 mg m-3 at inland urban sites, declined by 0.001 - 0.05 μg m-3 y-1, and represented on average 1 - 6 percent of NOy by mass.

Impacts on Coralligenous Outcrop Biodiversity of a Dramatic Coastal Storm

PubMed Central

Teixidó, Núria; Casas, Edgar; Cebrián, Emma; Linares, Cristina; Garrabou, Joaquim

2013-01-01

Extreme events are rare, stochastic perturbations that can cause abrupt and dramatic ecological change within a short period of time relative to the lifespan of organisms. Studies over time provide exceptional opportunities to detect the effects of extreme climatic events and to measure their impacts by quantifying rates of change at population and community levels. In this study, we show how an extreme storm event affected the dynamics of benthic coralligenous outcrops in the NW Mediterranean Sea using data acquired before (2006–2008) and after the impact (2009–2010) at four different sites. Storms of comparable severity have been documented to occur occasionally within periods of 50 years in the Mediterranean Sea. We assessed the effects derived from the storm comparing changes in benthic community composition at sites exposed to and sheltered from this extreme event. The sites analyzed showed different damage from severe to negligible. The most exposed and impacted site experienced a major shift immediately after the storm, represented by changes in the species richness and beta diversity of benthic species. This site also showed higher compositional variability immediately after the storm and over the following year. The loss of cover of benthic species resulted between 22% and 58%. The damage across these species (e.g. calcareous algae, sponges, anthozoans, bryozoans, tunicates) was uneven, and those with fragile forms were the most impacted, showing cover losses up to 50 to 100%. Interestingly, small patches survived after the storm and began to grow slightly during the following year. In contrast, sheltered sites showed no significant changes in all the studied parameters, indicating no variations due to the storm. This study provides new insights into the responses to large and rare extreme events of Mediterranean communities with low dynamics and long-lived species, which are among the most threatened by the effects of global change. PMID:23326496

Directional genetic selection by pulp mill effluent on multiple natural populations of three-spined stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus).

PubMed

Lind, Emma E; Grahn, Mats

2011-05-01

Contamination can cause a rapid environmental change which may require populations to respond with evolutionary changes. To evaluate the effects of pulp mill effluents on population genetics, we sampled three-spined sticklebacks (Gasterosteus aculeatus) near four pulp mills and four adjacent reference sites and analyzed Amplified Fragment Length Polymorphism (AFLP) to compare genetic variability. A fine scale genetic structure was detected and samples from polluted sites separated from reference sites in multidimensional scaling plots (P<0.005, 1000 permutations) and locus-by-locus Analysis of Molecular Variance (AMOVA) further confirmed that habitats are significantly separated (F(ST)=0.021, P<0.01, 1023 permutations). The amount of genetic variation between populations did not differ between habitats, and populations from both habitats had similar levels of heterozygosity (polluted sites Nei's Hs=0.11, reference sites Nei's Hs=0.11). Still, pairwise F(ST): s between three, out of four, pairs of polluted-reference sites were significant. A F(ST)-outlier analysis showed that 21 (8.4%) loci were statistically different from a neutral distribution at the P<0.05 level and therefore indicated to be under divergent selection. When removing 13 F(ST)-outlier loci, significant at the P<0.01 level, differentiation between habitats disappeared in a multidimensional scaling plot. In conclusion, pulp mill effluence has acted as a selective agent on natural populations of G. aculeatus, causing a convergence in genotype composition change at multiple sites in an open environment. © The Author(s) 2011. This article is published with open access at Springerlink.com

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Bunn, Andrew G.; Thomson, Allison M.

High-latitude northern ecosystems are experiencing rapid climate changes, and represent a large potential climate feedback because of their high soil carbon densities and shifting disturbance regimes. A significant carbon flow from these ecosystems is soil respiration (RS, the flow of carbon dioxide, generated by plant roots and soil fauna, from the soil surface to atmosphere), and any change in the high-latitude carbon cycle might thus be reflected in RS observed in the field. This study used two variants of a machine-learning algorithm and least squares regression to examine how remotely-sensed canopy greenness (NDVI), climate, and other variables are coupled tomore » annual RS based on 105 observations from 64 circumpolar sites in a global database. The addition of NDVI roughly doubled model performance, with the best-performing models explaining ~62% of observed RS variability« less

South Pacific hydrologic and cyclone variability during the last 3000 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toomey, Michael R.; Donnelly, Jeffrey P.; Tierney, Jessica E.

2016-04-01

Major excursions in the position of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) and/or changes in its intensity are thought to drive tropical cyclone (TC) and precipitation variability across much of the central South Pacific. A lack of conventional sites typically used for multimillennial proxy reconstructions has limited efforts to extend observational rainfall/TC data sets and our ability to fully assess the risks posed to central Pacific islands by future changes in fresh water availability or the frequency of storm landfalls. Here we use the sedimentary record of Apu Bay, offshore the island of Tahaa, French Polynesia, to explore the relationship between SPCZ position/intensity and tropical cyclone overwash, resolved at decadal time scales, since 3200 years B.P. Changes in orbital precession and Pacific sea surface temperatures best explain evidence for a coordinated pattern of rainfall variability at Tahaa and across the Pacific over the late Holocene. Our companion record of tropical cyclone activity from Tahaa suggests major storm activity was higher between 2600-1500 years B.P., when decadal scale SPCZ variability may also have been stronger. A transition to lower storm frequency and a shift or expansion of the SPCZ toward French Polynesia around 1000 years B.P. may have prompted Polynesian migration into the central Pacific.

Post-partum weight change patterns in the WHO Multicentre Growth Reference Study.

PubMed

Onyango, Adelheid W; Nommsen-Rivers, Laurie; Siyam, Amani; Borghi, Elaine; de Onis, Mercedes; Garza, Cutberto; Lartey, Anna; Baerug, Anne; Bhandari, Nita; Dewey, Kathryn G; Araújo, Cora Luiza; Mohamed, Ali Jaffer; Van den Broeck, Jan

2011-07-01

The interplay of factors that affect post-partum loss or retention of weight gained during pregnancy is not fully understood. The objective of this paper is to describe patterns of weight change in the six sites of the World Health Organization (WHO) Multicentre Growth Reference Study (MGRS) and explore variables that explain variation in weight change within and between sites. Mothers of 1743 breastfed children enrolled in the MGRS had weights measured at days 7, 14, 28 and 42 post-partum, monthly from 2 to 12 months and bimonthly thereafter until 24 months post-partum. Height, maternal age, parity and employment status were recorded and breastfeeding was monitored throughout the follow-up. Weight change patterns varied significantly among sites. Ghanaian and Omani mothers lost little or gained weight post-partum. In Brazil, India, Norway and USA, mothers on average lost weight during the first year followed by stabilization in the second year. Lactation intensity and duration explained little of the variation in weight change patterns. In most sites, obese mothers tended to lose less weight than normal-weight mothers. In Brazil and Oman, primiparous mothers lost about 1 kg more than multiparous mothers in the first 6 months. In India and Ghana, multiparous mothers lost about 0.6 kg more than primiparas in the second 6 months. Culturally defined mother-care practices probably play a role in weight change patterns among lactating women. This hypothesis should stimulate investigation into gestational weight gain and post-partum losses in different ethnocultural contexts. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Decadal trends in tropospheric ozone over East Asian Pacific rim during 1998-2007: Implications for emerging Asian emissions impacts and comparison to European and North American records (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanimoto, H.; Ohara, T.; Uno, I.

2010-12-01

We examine springtime ozone trends at nine remote locations in East Asian Pacific rim during the last decade (1998-2007). The observed decadal ozone trends are relatively small at surface sites but are substantially larger at a mountainous site. The level and increasing rate of ozone at the mountainous site are both higher than those observed at background sites in Europe and North America. We use a regional chemistry-transport model to explore the observed changes and how changes in Asian anthropogenic emissions have contributed to the observed increasing trends. The model with yearly-dependent regional emissions successfully reproduces the levels, variability, and interannual variations of ozone at all the surface sites. It predicts increasing trends at the mountainous site, suggesting that increasing Asian anthropogenic emissions account for about half the observed increase. However, the discrepancy between the observation and model results after 2003 (the time of largest emission increase) suggests significant underestimation of the actual growth of the Asian anthropogenic emissions and/or incompleteness in the modeling of pollution export from continental Asia. These findings imply that improving emissions inventory and transport scheme is needed to better understand rapidly evolving tropospheric ozone in East Asia and its potential climatic and environmental impacts.

Statistical evaluation of the effects of fall and winter flows on the spring condition of rainbow and brown trout in the green river downstream of Flaming Gorge Dam.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Magnusson, A. K.; LaGory, K. E.; Hayse, J. W.

2009-01-09

Flaming Gorge Dam, a hydroelectric facility operated by the Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation), is located on the Green River in Daggett County, northeastern Utah. In recent years, single peak releases each day or steady flows have been the operational pattern during the winter period. A double-peak pattern (two flow peaks each day) was implemented during the winter of 2006-2007 by Reclamation. Because there is no recent history of double-peaking at Flaming Gorge Dam, the potential effects of double-peaking operations on the body condition of trout in the dam's tailwater are not known. A study plan was developed that identified researchmore » activities to evaluate potential effects from double-peaking operations during winter months. Along with other tasks, the study plan identified the need to conduct a statistical analysis of existing data on trout condition and macroinvertebrate abundance to evaluate potential effects of hydropower operations. This report presents the results of this analysis. We analyzed historical data to (1) describe temporal patterns and relationships among flows, benthic macroinvertebrate abundance, and condition of brown trout (Salmo trutta) and rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) in the tailwaters of Flaming Gorge Dam and (2) to evaluate the degree to which flow characteristics (i.e., flow volumes and flow variability) and benthic macroinvertebrate abundance affect the condition of trout in this area. This information, together with further analyses of size-stratified trout data, may also serve as baseline data to which the effects of potential future double-peaking flows can be compared. The condition (length, weight and/or relative weight) of rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) at two sites in the Green River downstream of Flaming Gorge Dam (Tailrace and Little Hole) and weight of brown trout (Salmo trutta) at the Little Hole site has been decreasing since 1990 while the abundance of brown trout has been increasing at the two sites. At the same time, flow variability in the river has decreased and the abundance of total benthic macroinvertebrates at the Tailrace site has increased. The condition of trout in spring (averaged across all sampled trout) was positively correlated with fall and winter flow variability (including within-day skewness, within-season skewness and/or change in flow between days) at both locations. No negative correlations between trout condition and any measure of flow variability were detected. The length and weight of rainbow trout at the Little Hole site were negatively correlated with increasing fall and winter flow volume. The condition of brown trout at Little Hole and the condition of brown and rainbow trout at Tailrace were not correlated with flow volume. Macroinvertebrate variables during October were either positively correlated or not correlated with measures of trout condition at the Tailrace and Little Hole sites. With the exception of a positive correlation between taxa richness of macroinvertebrates in January and the relative weight of brown trout at Tailrace, the macroinvertebrate variables during January and April were either not correlated or negatively correlated with measures of trout condition. We hypothesize that high flow variability increased drift by dislodging benthic macroinvertebrates, and that the drift, in turn, resulted in mostly lower densities of benthic macroinvertebrates, which benefited the trout by giving them more feeding opportunities. This was supported by negative correlations between benthic macroinvertebrates and flow variability. Macroinvertebrate abundance (with the exception of ephemeropterans) was also negatively correlated with flow volume. The change in trout condition from fall to spring, as measured by the ratio of spring to fall relative weight, was evaluated to determine their usefulness as a standardized index to control for the initial condition of the fish as they enter the winter period. The ratio values were less correlated with the fall condition values than the spring condition values and did not show the same relationships to flows, to macroinvertebrates, or across years as the above-mentioned spring relative weight values. We found that the condition ratio of rainbow trout at Tailrace was positively correlated with within-day flow variability but was not correlated with flow volume, between-day-, or within-season flow variability. The condition ratios of rainbow trout at Little Hole and of both trout species at Tailrace were not correlated to any of the measured flow variables. The condition ratios of both trout species were positively correlated with the abundance of January benthic macroinvertebrates at the Little Hole site and with January dipterans (brown trout) or total coleopterans (rainbow trout) at the Tailrace site. The relationships among flows, macroinvertebrates, and trout condition were varied among species and locations.« less

Climatology and Characteristics of Aerosol Optical Properties in the Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmeisser, Lauren; Ogren, John; Backman, John; Asmi, Eija; Andrews, Elisabeth; Jefferson, Anne; Bergin, Michael; Tunved, Peter; Sharma, Sangeeta; Starkweather, Sandra

2016-04-01

Within the Arctic, climate forcers like atmospheric aerosols are important contributors to the observed warming and environmental changes in the region. Quantifying the forcing by aerosols in the Arctic is especially difficult, given short aerosol lifetimes, annual variability in illumination and surface albedo, stratified atmospheric conditions, complex feedbacks, and long-range aerosol transport. However, in-situ surface measurements of Arctic aerosol optical properties can be used to constrain variability of light scattering and absorption, identify potential particle sources, and help evaluate the resulting forcing. Data from six WMO Global Atmosphere Watch stations are presented: Alert, Canada (ALT); Barrow, Alaska (BRW); Pallas, Finland (PAL); Summit, Greenland (SUM); Tiksi, Russia (TIK); and Zeppelin Mountain, Norway (ZEP). These sites contribute to the International Arctic System for Observing the Atmosphere (IASOA), which facilitates Arctic-wide data collection and analysis. Climatologies of aerosol optical properties from each station show differences in magnitude and variability of observed parameters. For example, most stations (ALT, BRW, SUM, TIK, ZEP) experience maximum scattering in winter/spring, while PAL exhibits maximum scattering in the summer. The observed range in scattering across these sites is large (almost an order of magnitude) - SUM has the lowest annual median scattering at 0.82 Mm-1 while BRW has the highest at 6.9 Mm-1. A closer look at systematic variability between optical properties at each station, as well as site back trajectories, suggest differences in aerosol processes, sources and transport. The development of consistent climatologies and additional analyses like the ones presented here can help provide a better understanding of trans-Arctic aerosol variability, which can be an asset for improving aerosol models in this unique and remote region.

Riparian Meadow Response to Modern Conservation Grazing Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oles, Kristin M.; Weixelman, Dave A.; Lile, David F.; Tate, Kenneth W.; Snell, Laura K.; Roche, Leslie M.

2017-09-01

Riparian meadows occupy a small proportion of the public lands in the western United States but they provide numerous ecosystem services, including the production of high-quality forage for livestock grazing. Modern conservation management strategies (e.g., reductions in livestock stocking rates and adoption of new riparian grazing standards) have been implemented to better balance riparian conservation and livestock production objectives on publicly managed lands. We examined potential relationships between long-term changes in plant community, livestock grazing pressure and environmental conditions at two spatial scales in meadows grazed under conservation management strategies. Changes in plant community were not associated with either livestock stocking rate or precipitation at the grazing allotment (i.e., administrative) scale. Alternatively, both grazing pressure and precipitation had significant, albeit modest, associations with changes in plant community at the meadow (i.e., ecological site) scale. These results suggest that reductions in stocking rate have improved the balance between riparian conservation and livestock production goals. However, associations between elevation, site wetness, precipitation, and changes in plant community suggest that changing climate conditions (e.g., reduced snowpack and changes in timing of snowmelt) could trigger shifts in plant communities, potentially impacting both conservation and agricultural services (e.g., livestock and forage production). Therefore, adaptive, site-specific management strategies are required to meet grazing pressure limits and safeguard ecosystem services within individual meadows, especially under more variable climate conditions.

Riparian Meadow Response to Modern Conservation Grazing Management.

PubMed

Oles, Kristin M; Weixelman, Dave A; Lile, David F; Tate, Kenneth W; Snell, Laura K; Roche, Leslie M

2017-09-01

Riparian meadows occupy a small proportion of the public lands in the western United States but they provide numerous ecosystem services, including the production of high-quality forage for livestock grazing. Modern conservation management strategies (e.g., reductions in livestock stocking rates and adoption of new riparian grazing standards) have been implemented to better balance riparian conservation and livestock production objectives on publicly managed lands. We examined potential relationships between long-term changes in plant community, livestock grazing pressure and environmental conditions at two spatial scales in meadows grazed under conservation management strategies. Changes in plant community were not associated with either livestock stocking rate or precipitation at the grazing allotment (i.e., administrative) scale. Alternatively, both grazing pressure and precipitation had significant, albeit modest, associations with changes in plant community at the meadow (i.e., ecological site) scale. These results suggest that reductions in stocking rate have improved the balance between riparian conservation and livestock production goals. However, associations between elevation, site wetness, precipitation, and changes in plant community suggest that changing climate conditions (e.g., reduced snowpack and changes in timing of snowmelt) could trigger shifts in plant communities, potentially impacting both conservation and agricultural services (e.g., livestock and forage production). Therefore, adaptive, site-specific management strategies are required to meet grazing pressure limits and safeguard ecosystem services within individual meadows, especially under more variable climate conditions.

Sensitivity and Reproducibility of a Family-level Macroinvertebrate Index used to Assess Acid Mine Impacts on Streams in the Western Allegheny Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, K. S.

2005-05-01

We report on the performance of a family-level multimetric index, the MAIS (Macroinvertebrate Aggregate Index for Streams) for assessing acid mine impaired (AMD) sites in the Western Allegheny Plateau (Ohio). Two sampling protocols were compared, one utilizing three collection techniques (kick net, dip net and Surber samples), the other using two (kick and dip net). Including Surber samples tended to increase the MAIS score, changing the classification of four out of 52 sampling events (7.7%), but substantially increased processing time. MAIS scores were positively correlated with water pH (R = -0.77) and other indicators of AMD (acidity, sulfates, conductivity, total Al, total Mn). MAIS scores at some sites were consistent over 2-3 years of repeated sampling, others were more variable. Nineteen of the 26 sites that were sampled multiple times were categorized the same each year (73%), whereas 7 were classified differently in at least one year (27%). Since rainfall, flow regime and disturbance events varied over the three years, we cannot identify whether this variation reflects sampling error or actual changes in the assemblages at each site. Nevertheless, a benefit of repeated, annual evaluation is a statistically strong baseline condition against which future changes can be assessed.

Analysis of walking variability through simultaneous evaluation of the head, lumbar, and lower-extremity acceleration in healthy youth

PubMed Central

Toda, Haruki; Nagano, Akinori; Luo, Zhiwei

2016-01-01

[Purpose] The purpose of this study was to clarify whether walking speed affects acceleration variability of the head, lumbar, and lower extremity by simultaneously evaluating of acceleration. [Subjects and Methods] Twenty young individuals recruited from among the staff at Kurashiki Heisei Hospital participated in this study. Eight accelerometers were used to measure the head, lumbar and lower extremity accelerations. The participants were instructed to walk at five walking speeds prescribed by a metronome. Acceleration variability was assessed by a cross-correlation analysis normalized using z-transform in order to evaluate stride-to-stride variability. [Results] Vertical acceleration variability was the smallest in all body parts, and walking speed effect had laterality. Antero-posterior acceleration variability was significantly associated with walking speed at sites other than the head. Medio-lateral acceleration variability of the bilateral hip alone was smaller than the antero-posterior variability. [Conclusion] The findings of this study suggest that the effect of walking speed changes on the stride-to-stride acceleration variability was individual for each body parts, and differs among directions. PMID:27390419

Seasonal changes in antioxidant enzyme activities of freshwater biofilms in a metal polluted Mediterranean stream.

PubMed

Bonet, Berta; Corcoll, Natàlia; Acuňa, Vicenç; Sigg, Laura; Behra, Renata; Guasch, Helena

2013-02-01

While seasonal variations in fluvial communities have been extensively investigated, effects of seasonality on community responses to environmental and/or chemical stress are poorly documented. The aim of this study was to describe antioxidant enzyme activity (AEA) variability in fluvial biofilms over an annual cycle, under multi-stress scenarios due to environmental variability (e.g., light intensity, water flow, and temperature) and metal pollution (Zn, Mn and Fe). The annual monitoring study was performed at three sites according to their water and biofilm metal concentrations. Metal concentration was affected by water flow due to dilution. Low flow led to higher dissolved Zn concentrations, and thus to higher Zn accumulation in the biofilm. Water temperature, light intensity and phosphate concentration were the environmental factors which determined the seasonality of biofilm responses, whereas dissolved Zn and Zn accumulation in biofilms were the parameters linked to sites and periods of highest metal pollution. Community algal succession, from diatoms in cold conditions to green algae in warm conditions, was clearer in the non metal-polluted site than in those metal-polluted, presumably due to the selection pressure exerted by metals. Most AEA were related with seasonal environmental variability at the sites with low or no-metal pollution, except glutathione-S-transferase (GST) which was related with Zn (dissolved and accumulated in biofilm) pollution occurring at the most polluted site. We can conclude that seasonal variations of community composition and function are masked by metal pollution. From this study we suggest the use of a multi-biomarker approach, including AEA and a set of biological and physicochemical parameters as an effect-based field tool to assess metal pollution. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Relationships between lines of evidence of pollution in estuarine areas: Linking contaminant levels with biomarker responses in mussels and with structure of macroinvertebrate benthic communities.

PubMed

De Los Ríos, A; Echavarri-Erasun, B; Lacorte, S; Sánchez-Ávila, J; De Jonge, M; Blust, R; Orbea, A; Juanes, J A; Cajaraville, M P

2016-10-01

Data obtained in a pollution survey performed in estuarine areas were integrated using multivariate statistics. The sites selected for the study were areas affected by treated and untreated urban discharges, harbours or industrial activities as well as reference sites. Mussels were transplanted to each site and after different times of exposure, samples of water, sediments and mussels were collected. Biomarkers were analysed on mussels after 3 and 21 days of transplant whereas concentrations of contaminants were measured in water, sediments and mussels after 21 days of transplant. The structure of macroinvertebrate benthic communities was studied in sediment samples. Studied variables were organised into 5 datasets, each one constituting a line of evidence (LOE): contaminants in water, contaminants in sediments, contaminants accumulated by transplanted mussels, biomarkers in transplanted mussels and changes in the structure of macroinvertebrate benthic communities of each sampling site. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) identified the variables of each LOE best explaining variability among sites. In order to know how LOEs relate to each other, Pearson's correlations were performed. Contaminants in sediments were not correlated with the rest of LOEs. Contaminants in water were significantly correlated with contaminants and biomarkers in mussels and with structure of macroinvertebrate benthic communities. Similarly, significant correlations were found between contaminants and biomarkers in mussels and between biomarkers in mussels and structure of macroinvertebrate benthic communities. In conclusion, biomarker responses give relevant information on pollution in estuarine areas and provide a link between chemical and ecological statuses of water bodies in the context of the Water Framework Directive. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reassessing the role of temperature in precipitation oxygen isotopes across the eastern and central United States through weekly precipitation-day data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akers, Pete D.; Welker, Jeffrey M.; Brook, George A.

2017-09-01

Air temperature is correlated with precipitation oxygen isotope (δ18Oprcp) variability for much of the eastern and central United States, but the nature of this δ18Oprcp-temperature relationship is largely based on data coarsely aggregated at a monthly resolution. We constructed a database of 6177 weeks of isotope and precipitation-day air temperature data from 25 sites to determine how more precise data change our understanding of this classic relationship. Because the δ18Oprcp-temperature relationship is not perfectly linear, trends in the regression residuals suggest the influence of additional environmental factors such as moisture recycling and extratropical cyclone interactions. Additionally, the temporal relationships between δ18Oprcp and temperature observed in the weekly data at individual sites can explain broader spatial patterns observed across the study region. For 20 of 25 sites, the δ18Oprcp-temperature relationship slope is higher for colder precipitation than for warmer precipitation. Accordingly, northern and western sites with relatively more cold precipitation events have steeper overall relationships with higher slope values than southeastern sites that have more warm precipitation events. Although the magnitude of δ18Oprcp variability increases to the north and west, the fraction of δ18Oprcp variability explained by temperature increases due to wider annual temperature ranges, producing stronger relationships in these regions. When our δ18Oprcp-temperature data are grouped by month, we observe significant variations in the relationship from month to month. This argues against a principal causative role for temperature and suggests the existence of an alternative environmental control on δ18Oprcp values that simply covaries seasonally with temperature.

Water-quality observations of the San Antonio segment of the Edwards aquifer, Texas, with an emphasis on processes influencing nutrient and pesticide geochemistry and factors affecting aquifer vulnerability, 2010–16

USGS Publications Warehouse

Opsahl, Stephen P.; Musgrove, MaryLynn; Mahler, Barbara J.; Lambert, Rebecca B.

2018-06-07

As questions regarding the influence of increasing urbanization on water quality in the Edwards aquifer are raised, a better understanding of the sources, fate, and transport of compounds of concern in the aquifer—in particular, nutrients and pesticides—is needed to improve water management decision-making capabilities. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the San Antonio Water System, performed a study from 2010 to 2016 to better understand how water quality changes under a range of hydrologic conditions and in contrasting land-cover settings (rural and urban) in the Edwards aquifer. The study design included continuous hydrologic monitoring, continuous water-quality monitoring, and discrete sample collection for a detailed characterization of water quality at a network of sites throughout the aquifer system. The sites were selected to encompass a “source-to-sink” (that is, from aquifer recharge to aquifer discharge) approach. Network sites were selected to characterize rainfall, recharging surface water, and groundwater; groundwater sites included wells in the unconfined part of the aquifer (unconfined wells) and in the confined part of the aquifer (confined wells) and a major discharging spring. Storm-related samples—including rainfall samples, stormwater-runoff (surface-water) samples, and groundwater samples—were collected to characterize the aquifer response to recharge.Elevated nitrate concentrations relative to national background values and the widespread detection of pesticides indicate that the Edwards aquifer is vulnerable to contamination and that vulnerability is affected by factors such as land cover, aquifer hydrogeology, and changes in hydrologic conditions. Greater vulnerability of groundwater in urban areas relative to rural areas was evident from results for urban groundwater sites, which generally had higher nitrate concentrations, elevated δ15N-nitrate values, a greater diversity of pesticides, and higher pesticide concentrations. The continuum of water quality from unconfined rural groundwater sites (least affected by anthropogenic contamination) to unconfined urban groundwater sites (most affected by anthropogenic contamination) demonstrates enhanced vulnerability of urban versus rural land cover. Differences in contaminant occurrences and concentration among unconfined urban wells indicate that the urban parts of the aquifer are not uniformly vulnerable, but rather are affected by spatial differences in the sources of nutrients and pesticides. In urban areas, the shallow, unconfined groundwater sites showed greater temporal variability in both nutrient and pesticide concentrations, as well as a greater degree of contamination, than did deeper, confined groundwater sites. In comparison to that of the shallow, unconfined groundwater sites, the water quality of the deeper, confined groundwater sites was relatively invariant during this multiyear study. Although aquifer hydrogeology is an important factor related to aquifer vulnerability, land cover likely has a greater influence on pesticide contamination of groundwater. Temporal variability in hydrologic conditions for the Edwards aquifer is apparent in data for surface water as a source of groundwater recharge, water-level altitude in wells, spring discharge, and groundwater quality. This temporal variability affects recharge sources, recharge amounts, groundwater traveltimes, flow routing, water-rock interaction processes, dilution, mixing, and, in turn, water quality. Relations of land cover, aquifer hydrogeology, and changing hydrologic conditions to water quality are complex but provide insight into the vulnerability of Edwards aquifer groundwater—a vital drinking-water resource.

Wind and rain are the primary climate factors driving changing phenology of an aerial insectivore.

PubMed

Irons, Rachel D; Harding Scurr, April; Rose, Alexandra P; Hagelin, Julie C; Blake, Tricia; Doak, Daniel F

2017-04-26

While the ecological effects of climate change have been widely observed, most efforts to document these impacts in terrestrial systems have concentrated on the impacts of temperature. We used tree swallow ( Tachycineta bicolor ) nest observations from two widely separated sites in central Alaska to examine the aspects of climate affecting breeding phenology at the northern extent of this species' range. We found that two measures of breeding phenology, annual lay and hatch dates, are more strongly predicted by windiness and precipitation than by temperature. At our longest-monitored site, breeding phenology has advanced at nearly twice the rate seen in more southern populations, and these changes correspond to long-term declines in windiness. Overall, adverse spring climate conditions known to negatively impact foraging success of swallows (wet, windy weather) appear to influence breeding phenology more than variation in temperature. Separate analyses show that short windy periods significantly delay initiation of individual clutches within years. While past reviews have emphasized that increasing variability in climate conditions may create physiological and ecological challenges for natural populations, we find that long-term reductions in inclement weather corresponded to earlier reproduction in one of our study populations. To better predict climate change impacts, ecologists need to more carefully test effects of multiple climate variables, including some, like windiness, that may be of paramount importance to some species, but have rarely been considered as strong drivers of ecological responses to climate alteration. © 2017 The Author(s).

Wind and rain are the primary climate factors driving changing phenology of an aerial insectivore

PubMed Central

Irons, Rachel D.; Harding Scurr, April; Rose, Alexandra P.; Hagelin, Julie C.; Blake, Tricia

2017-01-01

While the ecological effects of climate change have been widely observed, most efforts to document these impacts in terrestrial systems have concentrated on the impacts of temperature. We used tree swallow (Tachycineta bicolor) nest observations from two widely separated sites in central Alaska to examine the aspects of climate affecting breeding phenology at the northern extent of this species' range. We found that two measures of breeding phenology, annual lay and hatch dates, are more strongly predicted by windiness and precipitation than by temperature. At our longest-monitored site, breeding phenology has advanced at nearly twice the rate seen in more southern populations, and these changes correspond to long-term declines in windiness. Overall, adverse spring climate conditions known to negatively impact foraging success of swallows (wet, windy weather) appear to influence breeding phenology more than variation in temperature. Separate analyses show that short windy periods significantly delay initiation of individual clutches within years. While past reviews have emphasized that increasing variability in climate conditions may create physiological and ecological challenges for natural populations, we find that long-term reductions in inclement weather corresponded to earlier reproduction in one of our study populations. To better predict climate change impacts, ecologists need to more carefully test effects of multiple climate variables, including some, like windiness, that may be of paramount importance to some species, but have rarely been considered as strong drivers of ecological responses to climate alteration. PMID:28446701

Late Holocene paleoecology of Andros Island, Bahamas: Evidence of climate change and human disturbance

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kjellmark, E.W.

Pollen and charcoal data from a transect of three sediment cores taken from deep, water-filled karst sinkholes on Andros Island, Bahamas have yielded a detailed record of late Holocene climate change and human disturbance. The pollen record reveals that a long-term, late Holocene dry period in the Caribbean, which extended from 3000 to 1500 years bp had a variable effect on the vegetation of Andros depending on its proximity to the water table. A site at 10 m elevation above the water table shows evidence of major changes in vegetation, while a low-lying site shows little effect. Both the charcoalmore » and pollen records reveal possible evidence of human disturbance beginning after the dry period ends. A site 1 km from the east coast of Andros shows a peak in charcoal content in sediments that are 900-1000 years old. This post-dates human colonization of the Bahamas, which occurred 1000-1200 years bp and may be evidence of increased burning brought about by humans. A site 7 km inland shows a large peak in charcoal content and a distinct shift in the pollen spectrum from tropical hardwoods pollen to pinewoods pollen in sediments that are 700-800 years old. Charcoal content is low at this site in 450-500 year old sediments, then peaks again in 200-250 year old sediments. This may reflect the removal of humans from the Bahamas shortly after the arrival of Columbus, followed by re-colonization 250 years later. Although the changes in charcoal and pollen over the past 1000 years could have been climatically induced, the timing of the changes correlates closely with known events in the human history of the Bahamas.« less

Population dynamics of mottled sculpin (PISCES) in a variable environment: information theoretic approaches

Treesearch

Gary D. Grossman; Robert E Ratajczak; J. Todd Petty; Mark D. Hunter; James T. Peterson; Gael Grenouillet

2006-01-01

We used strong inference with Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) to assess the processes capable of explaining long-term (1984-1995) variation in the per capita rate of change of mottled sculpin (Cottus bairdi) populations in the Coweeta Creek drainage (USA). We sampled two fourth- and one fifth-order sites (BCA [uppermost], BCB, and CC [lowermost])...

Logistic regression accuracy across different spatial and temporal scales for a wide-ranging species, the marbled murrelet

Treesearch

Carolyn B. Meyer; Sherri L. Miller; C. John Ralph

2004-01-01

The scale at which habitat variables are measured affects the accuracy of resource selection functions in predicting animal use of sites. We used logistic regression models for a wide-ranging species, the marbled murrelet, (Brachyramphus marmoratus) in a large region in California to address how much changing the spatial or temporal scale of...

Trends in stream nitrogen concentrations for forested reference catchments across the USA

Treesearch

A. Argerich; S.L. Johnson; S.D. Sebestyen; C.C. Rhoades; E. Greathouse; J.D. Knoepp; M.B. Adams; G.E. Likens; J.L. Campbell; W.H. McDowell; F.N. Scatena; G.G. Ice

2013-01-01

To examine whether stream nitrogen concentrations in forested reference catchments have changed over time and if patterns were consistent across the USA, we synthesized up to 44 yr of data collected from 22 catchments at seven USDA Forest Service Experimental Forests. Trends in stream nitrogen presented high spatial variability both among catchments at a site and among...

Towards an understanding of coupled physical and biological processes in the cultivated Sahel - 1. Energy and water

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramier, David; Boulain, Nicolas; Cappelaere, Bernard; Timouk, Franck; Rabanit, Manon; Lloyd, Colin R.; Boubkraoui, Stéphane; Métayer, Frédéric; Descroix, Luc; Wawrzyniak, Vincent

2009-08-01

SummaryThis paper presents an analysis of the coupled cycling of energy and water by semi-arid Sahelian surfaces, based on two years of continuous vertical flux measurements from two homogeneous recording stations in the Wankama catchment, in the West Niger meso-site of the AMMA project. The two stations, sited in a millet field and in a semi-natural fallow savanna plot, sample the two dominant land cover types in this area typical of the cultivated Sahel. The 2-year study period enables an analysis of seasonal variations over two full wet-dry seasons cycles, characterized by two contrasted rain seasons that allow capturing a part of the interannual variability. All components of the surface energy budget (four-component radiation budget, soil heat flux and temperature, eddy fluxes) are measured independently, allowing for a quality check through analysis of the energy balance closure. Water cycle monitoring includes rainfall, evapotranspiration (from vapour eddy flux), and soil moisture at six depths. The main modes of observed variability are described, for the various energy and hydrological variables investigated. Results point to the dominant role of water in the energy cycle variability, be it seasonal, interannual, or between land cover types. Rainfall is responsible for nearly as much seasonal variations of most energy-related variables as solar forcing. Depending on water availability and plant requirements, evapotranspiration pre-empts the energy available from surface forcing radiation, over the other dependent processes (sensible and ground heat, outgoing long wave radiation). In the water budget, pre-emption by evapotranspiration leads to very large variability in soil moisture and in deep percolation, seasonally, interannually, and between vegetation types. The wetter 2006 season produced more evapotranspiration than 2005 from the fallow but not from the millet site, reflecting differences in plant development. Rain-season evapotranspiration is nearly always lower at the millet site. Higher soil moisture at this site suggests that this difference arises from lower vegetation requirements rather than from lower infiltration/higher runoff. This difference is partly compensated for during the next dry season. Effects of water and vegetation on the energy budget appear to occur more through latent heat than through albedo. A large part of albedo variability comes from soil wetting and drying. Prior to the onset of monsoon rain, the change in air mass temperature and wind produces, through modulation of sensible heat, a marked chilling effect on the components of the surface energy budget.

Landscape Change Detected Over A 60 Year Period In The Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, Alaska, Using High Resolution Aerial Photographs And Satellite Images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jorgenson, J. C.; Jorgenson, M. T.; Boldenow, M.; Orndahl, K. M.

2016-12-01

We documented landscape change over a 60 year period in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in northeastern Alaska using aerial photographs and satellite images. We used a stratified random sample to allow inference to the whole refuge (78,050 km2), with five random sites in each of seven ecoregions. Each site (2 km2) had a systematic grid of 100 points for a total of 3500 points. We chose study sites in the overlap area covered by acceptable imagery in three time periods: aerial photographs from 1947 - 1955 and 1978 - 1988, Quick Bird and IKONOS satellite images from 2000 - 2007.At each point a 10 meter radius circle was visually evaluated in ARC-MAP for each time period for vegetation type, disturbance, presence of ice wedge polygon microtopography and surface water. A landscape change category was assigned to each point based on differences detected between the three periods. Change types were assigned for time interval 1, interval 2 and overall. Additional explanatory variables included elevation, slope, aspect, geology, physiography and temperature. Overall, 23% of points changed over the study period. Fire was the most common change agent, affecting 28% of the Boreal Forest points. The next most common change was degradation of soil ice wedges (thermokarst), detected at 12% of the points on the North Slope Tundra. The other most common changes included increase in cover of trees or shrubs (7% of Boreal Forest and Brooks Range points) and erosion or deposition on river floodplains and at the Beaufort Sea coast. Changes on the North Slope Tundra tended to be related to landscape wetting, mainly thermokarst. Changes in the Boreal Forest tended to involve landscape drying, including fire, reduced area of lakes and tree increase on wet sites. The second time interval coincided with a shift towards a warmer climate and had greater change in several categories including thermokarst, lake changes and tree and shrub increase.

Phenological adjustment in arctic bird species: relative importance of snow melt and ecological factors

USGS Publications Warehouse

Liebezeit, Joseph R.; Gurney, K. E. B.; Budde, Michael E.; Zack, Steve; Ward, David H.

2014-01-01

Previous studies have documented advancement in clutch initiation dates (CIDs) in response to climate change, most notably for temperate-breeding passerines. Despite accelerated climate change in the Arctic, few studies have examined nest phenology shifts in arctic breeding species. We investigated whether CIDs have advanced for the most abundant breeding shorebird and passerine species at a long-term monitoring site in arctic Alaska. We pooled data from three additional nearby sites to determine the explanatory power of snow melt and ecological variables (predator abundance, green-up) on changes in breeding phenology. As predicted, all species (semipalmated sandpiper, Calidris pusilla, pectoral sandpiper, Calidris melanotos, red-necked phalarope, Phalaropus lobatus, red phalarope, Phalaropus fulicarius, Lapland longspur, Calcarius lapponicus) exhibited advanced CIDs ranging from 0.40 to 0.80 days/year over 9 years. Timing of snow melt was the most important variable in explaining clutch initiation advancement (“climate/snow hypothesis”) for four of the five species, while green-up was a much less important explanatory factor. We found no evidence that high predator abundances led to earlier laying dates (“predator/re-nest hypothesis”). Our results support previous arctic studies in that climate change in the cryosphere will have a strong impact on nesting phenology although factors explaining changes in nest phenology are not necessarily uniform across the entire Arctic. Our results suggest some arctic-breeding shorebird and passerine species are altering their breeding phenology to initiate nesting earlier enabling them to, at least temporarily, avoid the negative consequences of a trophic mismatch.

Patterns of Twentieth Century Treeline Advance in Alaska: Insights from Dendrochronology and Permanent Plot Studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lloyd, A. H.; Fastie, C. L.

2014-12-01

Warming over the last several decades has led to an upward or poleward shift in the distributional limit of trees at sites around the circumboreal north. In our own research in three regions in Alaska, we found evidence for an upward shift in treeline at every site, in the form of a decline in population age with increasing elevation. The prevalence of that particular signature of change suggests that continued expansion of forest vegetation at treeline is likely. But how fast, and how sustained are those changes likely to be in the future? Changing disturbance regimes, non-linear growth responses to warming, and unexplained regional variability in the rate of historical responses to warming all introduce significant uncertainty to projections of future change at treeline. In an effort to compare historical with current patterns of change, we set up permanent plots in each of the sites at which we had reconstructed forest history, tagging each tree and seedling. We resampled these plots more than a decade after the initial measurements, and thus have an opportunity to compare the actual trajectory of change in each plot with the trajectory that we inferred from our dendrochronological reconstructions. At most sites, the observed pattern of change over the last 10-15 years is consistent with the trajectory inferred from dendrochronological studies. Seedling density at treeline and above treeline increased significantly over this time period-- almost doubling (98.6% increase) at treeline plots, and increasing more than 189%, on average, in above treeline plots. The expansion of forest vegetation at treeline has thus continued at an extremely rapid pace. The remeasurements also, however, yielded surprises that could not have been anticipated from the reconstructions at forest history. A severe fire at one of our sites killed most of the seedlings that had established above treeline, and in the years since the fire, aspen-- which is not a common treeline species in Alaska-- has become the dominant woody vegetation both at and above treeline at this site. This suggests that changes in disturbance regime at treeline could have unexpected consequences-- leading to rapid establishment of vegetation types that are not currently common at treeline.

Climate Controls on Tree Growth Across Species and Sites in Northeastern Arizona

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwan, M. R.; Guiterman, C. H.; Anchukaitis, K. J.

2016-12-01

Understanding how forests will respond to ongoing climate change is important for conservation and resource management. Conifer forests in the US Southwest are predicted to be particularly at risk from increased drought and higher temperatures projected to occur in the region. Tree-ring studies shed light on how trees respond to climate, but there remains considerable uncertainty as to which climate factors are most important, and which species are most at risk. Confounding climate and environmental factors, biological differences among species, and biogeography often complicate cross-species analysis. Here we present a multi-species, multivariate analysis of tree growth response to climate variability. We analyze data from three coexisting conifer tree species at two sites near Canyon de Chelly, Arizona. We use a high-resolution PRISM gridded climate dataset to determine the growth responses across species and sites to temperature and precipitation. We identify both common and differential responses in our data and use these to infer possible risks these forest communities may face under a changing climate.

Changes in tau phosphorylation in hibernating rodents.

PubMed

León-Espinosa, Gonzalo; García, Esther; García-Escudero, Vega; Hernández, Félix; Defelipe, Javier; Avila, Jesús

2013-07-01

Tau is a cytoskeletal protein present mainly in the neurons of vertebrates. By comparing the sequence of tau molecule among different vertebrates, it was found that the variability of the N-terminal sequence in tau protein is higher than that of the C-terminal region. The N-terminal region is involved mainly in the binding of tau to cellular membranes, whereas the C-terminal region of the tau molecule contains the microtubule-binding sites. We have compared the sequence of Syrian hamster tau with the sequences of other hibernating and nonhibernating rodents and investigated how differences in the N-terminal region of tau could affect the phosphorylation level and tau binding to cell membranes. We also describe a change, in tau phosphorylation, on a casein kinase 1 (ck1)-dependent site that is found only in hibernating rodents. This ck1 site seems to play an important role in the regulation of tau binding to membranes. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Intra-Trackway Morphological Variations Due to Substrate Consistency: The El Frontal Dinosaur Tracksite (Lower Cretaceous, Spain)

PubMed Central

Razzolini, Novella L.; Vila, Bernat; Castanera, Diego; Falkingham, Peter L.; Barco, José Luis; Canudo, José Ignacio; Manning, Phillip L.; Galobart, Àngel

2014-01-01

An ichnological and sedimentological study of the El Frontal dinosaur tracksite (Early Cretaceous, Cameros basin, Soria, Spain) highlights the pronounced intra-trackway variation found in track morphologies of four theropod trackways. Photogrammetric 3D digital models revealed various and distinct intra-trackway morphotypes, which reflect changes in footprint parameters such as the pace length, the track length, depth, and height of displacement rims. Sedimentological analyses suggest that the original substrate was non-homogenous due to lateral changes in adjoining microfacies. Multidata analyses indicate that morphological differences in these deep and shallow tracks represent a part of a continuum of track morphologies and geometries produced by a gradient of substrate consistencies across the site. This implies that the large range of track morphologies at this site resulted from similar trackmakers crossing variable facies. The trackways at the El Frontal site present an exemplary case of how track morphology, and consequently potential ichnotaxa, can vary, even when produced by a single trackmaker. PMID:24699696

Air temperature change in the northern and southern tropical Andes linked to North-Atlantic stadials and Greenland interstadials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urrego, Dunia H.; Hooghiemstra, Henry

2016-04-01

We use eight pollen records reflecting climatic and environmental change from northern and southern sites in the tropical Andes. Our analysis focuses on the signature of millennial-scale climate variability during the last 30,000 years, in particular the Younger Dryas (YD), Heinrich stadials (HS) and Greenland interstadials (GI). We identify rapid responses of the vegetation to millennial-scale climate variability in the tropical Andes. The signature of HS and the YD are generally recorded as downslope migrations of the upper forest line (UFL), and are likely linked to air temperature cooling. The GI1 signal is overall comparable between northern and southern records and indicates upslope UFL migrations and warming in the tropical Andes. Our marker for lake level changes indicates a north to south difference that could be related to moisture availability. The direction of air temperature change recorded by the Andean vegetation is consistent with millennial-scale cryosphere and sea surface temperature records from the American tropics, but suggests a potential difference between the magnitude of temperature change in the ocean and the atmosphere.

Utility theoretic approach to estimating the demand for and benefits from recreational fishing: the impact of acid rain

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shaw, W.D. Jr.

1985-01-01

The Adirondack State Park has been hit especially hard by acid precipitation. Acid precipitation impacts particular species of fish at various high altitudes sites in the park. The author estimates consumer surplus measures for changes in a variable to proxy the stock size of these species at specific sites. To do this he first estimates the individual's demand for a recreation site as a function of site prices and the site's characteristics. The demand function for the individual is derived from a utility function. A travel cost approach is used to estimate an individual's share of total fishing time spentmore » at a five fishing site. The shares are estimated by maximum likelihood and the results indicate that price and the three characteristics do explain the allocation of the individual's time spent at the various sites selected for the analysis. Finally, consumer surplus measures for a reduction in the catch rates of the species most likely to be affected by Acid Precipitation are calculated. The meaning of these measures in the context of a model that assumes weak separability is examined. These reductions in catch rates can be linked to changes in the level of Acid Precipitation in the Park, and this provides us with a method for quantifying the impact of acid precipitation on recreation fishing.« less

Suitability of oyster restoration sites along the Louisiana coast: Examining site and stock × site interaction

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schwarting Miller, Lindsay; La Peyre, Jerome F.; LaPeyre, Megan K.

2017-01-01

Recognition of the global loss of subtidal oyster reefs has led to a rise in reef restoration efforts, including in the Gulf of Mexico. Created reef success depends entirely on selecting a location that supports long-term oyster growth and survival, including the recruitment and survival of on-reef oysters. Significant changes in estuarine salinity through management of freshwater inflows and through changed precipitation patterns may significantly impact the locations of optimal oyster restoration sites. These rapid shifts in conditions necessitate a need to better understand both impacts to on-reef oyster growth and population development, and variation in oyster stock performance. Oyster growth, mortality, condition, and disease prevalence were examined in three different stocks of oysters located in protected cages, as well as oyster recruitment and mortality on experimental reef units in three different locations representing a salinity gradient, along the Louisiana Gulf coast in 2011 and 2012. Over a 2-y period, the high-salinity site had highest oyster growth rate in protected cages but demonstrated the least likelihood for reef development based on on-reef oyster population failure, likely because of predation-related mortality (high recruitment and 100% mortality). In contrast, the midsalinity site with moderate oyster growth and on-reef recruitment and low mortality demonstrated a higher likelihood for reef development. The lowest salinity site exhibited extreme variability in all oyster responses between years because of extreme variation in environmental conditions during the study, indicating a low likelihood of long-term reef development. Whereas limited differences in stock performance between sites were found, the range of site environmental conditions tested was ultimately much lower than expected and may not have provided a wide enough range of conditions. In areas with limited, low recruitment, or rapidly changing environmental conditions, seeding with stocks selected for best growth and survival under expected future environmental conditions could better ensure reef development by using oyster populations best suited to the predicted conditions. With rapidly changing estuarine conditions from anthropogenic activities and climate change, siting of oyster reef restoration incorporating both oyster population dynamics and in situ biotic and abiotic interactions is critical in better directing site selection for reef restoration efforts.

Validation of two (parametric vs non-parametric) daily weather generators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dubrovsky, M.; Skalak, P.

2015-12-01

As the climate models (GCMs and RCMs) fail to satisfactorily reproduce the real-world surface weather regime, various statistical methods are applied to downscale GCM/RCM outputs into site-specific weather series. The stochastic weather generators are among the most favourite downscaling methods capable to produce realistic (observed-like) meteorological inputs for agrological, hydrological and other impact models used in assessing sensitivity of various ecosystems to climate change/variability. To name their advantages, the generators may (i) produce arbitrarily long multi-variate synthetic weather series representing both present and changed climates (in the latter case, the generators are commonly modified by GCM/RCM-based climate change scenarios), (ii) be run in various time steps and for multiple weather variables (the generators reproduce the correlations among variables), (iii) be interpolated (and run also for sites where no weather data are available to calibrate the generator). This contribution will compare two stochastic daily weather generators in terms of their ability to reproduce various features of the daily weather series. M&Rfi is a parametric generator: Markov chain model is used to model precipitation occurrence, precipitation amount is modelled by the Gamma distribution, and the 1st order autoregressive model is used to generate non-precipitation surface weather variables. The non-parametric GoMeZ generator is based on the nearest neighbours resampling technique making no assumption on the distribution of the variables being generated. Various settings of both weather generators will be assumed in the present validation tests. The generators will be validated in terms of (a) extreme temperature and precipitation characteristics (annual and 30-years extremes and maxima of duration of hot/cold/dry/wet spells); (b) selected validation statistics developed within the frame of VALUE project. The tests will be based on observational weather series from several European stations available from the ECA&D database. Acknowledgements: The weather generator is developed and validated within the frame of projects WG4VALUE (sponsored by the Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of CR), and VALUE (COST ES 1102 action).

Parent predictors of child weight change in family based behavioral obesity treatment.

PubMed

Boutelle, Kerri N; Cafri, Guy; Crow, Scott J

2012-07-01

Family based behavioral treatment for overweight and obese children includes parenting skills targeting the modification of child eating and activity change. The purpose of this study was to examine parenting skills and parent weight change as predictors of child weight change in a sample of 80 parent/child dyads who were enrolled in a family based behavioral weight loss program for childhood obesity. Eighty overweight and obese children and their parents who enrolled in treatment in two sites were included in the study. Variables included those related to parent modeling (parent BMI), home food environment, parenting (parent and child report), and demographics. Results suggested that parent BMI change was a significant predictor of child weight, in that a reduction of 1 BMI unit in the parent was associated with a 0.255 reduction in child BMI. None of the other variables were significant in the final model. This study is consistent with other research showing that parent weight change is a key contributor to child weight change in behavioral treatment for childhood obesity. Researchers and clinicians should focus on encouraging parents to lose weight to assist their overweight and obese child in weight management.

Nonstationarity of low flows and their timing in the eastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sadri, S.; Kam, J.; Sheffield, J.

2015-03-01

The analysis of the spatial and temporal patterns of low flows as well as their generation mechanisms over large geographic regions can provide valuable insights and understanding for climate change impacts, regional frequency analysis, risk assessment of extreme events, and decision-making regarding allowable withdrawals. We use nonparametric tests to identify abrupt and gradual changes in time series of low flows and their timing for 508 USGS streamflow gauging sites in the eastern US with more than 50 years of daily data, to systematically distinguish the effects of human intervention from those of climate variability. A time series decomposition algorithm was applied to 1 day, 7 day, 30 day, and 90 day annual low flow time series that combines the Box-Ljung test for detection of autocorrelation, the Pettitt test for abrupt step changes and the Mann-Kendall test for monotonic trends. Examination of the USGS notes for each site confirmed that many of the step changes and around half of the sites with an increasing trend were associated with regulation. Around a third of the sites with a decreasing trend were associated with a change of gauge datum. Overall, a general pattern of increasing low flows in the northeast and decreasing low flows in the southeast is evident over a common time period (1951-2005), even when discarding sites with significant autocorrelation, documented regulation or other human impacts. The north-south pattern of trends is consistent with changes in antecedent precipitation. The main exception is along the mid-Atlantic coastal aquifer system from eastern Virginia northwards, where low flows have decreased despite increasing precipitation, and suggests that declining groundwater levels due to pumping may have contributed to decreased low flows. For most sites, the majority of low flows occur in one season in the late summer to autumn, as driven by the lower precipitation and higher evaporative demand in this season, but this is complicated in many regions because of the presence of a secondary low flow season in the winter for sites in the extreme northeast and in the spring for sites in Florida. Trends in low flow timing are generally undetectable, although abrupt step changes appear to be associated with regulation.

The effects of urbanization on the biological, physical, and chemical characteristics of coastal New England streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coles, J.F.; Cuffney, T.F.; McMahon, G.; Beaulieu, K.M.

2004-01-01

During August 2000, responses of biological communities (invertebrates, fish, and algae), physical habitat, and water chemistry to urban intensity were compared among 30 streams within 80 miles of Boston, Massachusetts. Sites chosen for sampling represented a gradient of the intensity of urban development (urban intensity) among drainage basins that had minimal natural variability. In this study, spatial differences were used as surrogates for temporal changes to represent the effects of urbanization over time. The degree of urban intensity for each drainage basin was characterized with a standardized urban index (0?100, lowest to highest) derived from land cover, infrastructure, and socioeconomic variables. Multivariate and multimetric analyses were used to compare urban index values with biological, physical, and chemical data to determine how the data indicated responses to urbanization. Multivariate ordinations were derived for the invertebrate-, fish-, and algaecommunity data by use of correspondence analysis, and ordinations were derived for the chemical and physical data by use of principal-component analysis. Site scores from each of the ordinations were plotted in relation to the urban index to test for a response. In all cases, the primary axis scores showed the strongest response to the urban index, indicating that urbanization was a primary factor affecting the data ordination. For the multimetric analyses, each of the biological data sets was used to calculate a series of community metrics. For the sets of chemical and physical data, the individual variables and various combinations of individual variables were used as measured and derived metrics, respectively. Metrics that were generally most responsive to the urban index for each data set included: EPT (Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, Trichoptera) taxa for invertebrates; cyprinid taxa for fish; diatom taxa for algae; bicarbonate, conductivity, and nitrogen for chemistry; and water depth and temperature for physical habitat. The slopes of the responses generally were higher between the urban index values of 0 to 35, indicating that the greatest change in aquatic health may occur between low and moderate levels of urban intensity. Additionally, many of the responses showed that at urban index values greater than 35, there was a threshold effect where the response variable no longer changed with respect to urban intensity. Recognizing and understanding this type of response is important in management and monitoring programs that rely on decisive interpretations of variable responses. Any biological, physical, or chemical variable that is used to haracterize stream health over a gradient of disturbance would not be a reliable indicator when a level of disturbance is reached where the variable does not respond in a predictable manner.

Stochastic empirical loading and dilution model (SELDM) version 1.0.0

USGS Publications Warehouse

Granato, Gregory E.

2013-01-01

The Stochastic Empirical Loading and Dilution Model (SELDM) is designed to transform complex scientific data into meaningful information about the risk of adverse effects of runoff on receiving waters, the potential need for mitigation measures, and the potential effectiveness of such management measures for reducing these risks. The U.S. Geological Survey developed SELDM in cooperation with the Federal Highway Administration to help develop planning-level estimates of event mean concentrations, flows, and loads in stormwater from a site of interest and from an upstream basin. Planning-level estimates are defined as the results of analyses used to evaluate alternative management measures; planning-level estimates are recognized to include substantial uncertainties (commonly orders of magnitude). SELDM uses information about a highway site, the associated receiving-water basin, precipitation events, stormflow, water quality, and the performance of mitigation measures to produce a stochastic population of runoff-quality variables. SELDM provides input statistics for precipitation, prestorm flow, runoff coefficients, and concentrations of selected water-quality constituents from National datasets. Input statistics may be selected on the basis of the latitude, longitude, and physical characteristics of the site of interest and the upstream basin. The user also may derive and input statistics for each variable that are specific to a given site of interest or a given area. SELDM is a stochastic model because it uses Monte Carlo methods to produce the random combinations of input variable values needed to generate the stochastic population of values for each component variable. SELDM calculates the dilution of runoff in the receiving waters and the resulting downstream event mean concentrations and annual average lake concentrations. Results are ranked, and plotting positions are calculated, to indicate the level of risk of adverse effects caused by runoff concentrations, flows, and loads on receiving waters by storm and by year. Unlike deterministic hydrologic models, SELDM is not calibrated by changing values of input variables to match a historical record of values. Instead, input values for SELDM are based on site characteristics and representative statistics for each hydrologic variable. Thus, SELDM is an empirical model based on data and statistics rather than theoretical physiochemical equations. SELDM is a lumped parameter model because the highway site, the upstream basin, and the lake basin each are represented as a single homogeneous unit. Each of these source areas is represented by average basin properties, and results from SELDM are calculated as point estimates for the site of interest. Use of the lumped parameter approach facilitates rapid specification of model parameters to develop planning-level estimates with available data. The approach allows for parsimony in the required inputs to and outputs from the model and flexibility in the use of the model. For example, SELDM can be used to model runoff from various land covers or land uses by using the highway-site definition as long as representative water quality and impervious-fraction data are available.

Changes in tundra pond limnology: re-sampling Alaskan ponds after 40 years.

PubMed

Lougheed, Vanessa L; Butler, Malcolm G; McEwen, Daniel C; Hobbie, John E

2011-09-01

The arctic tundra ponds at the International Biological Program (IBP) site in Barrow, AK, were studied extensively in the 1970s; however, very little aquatic research has been conducted there for over three decades. Due to the rapid climate changes already occurring in northern Alaska, identifying any changes in the ponds' structure and function over the past 30-40 years can help identify any potential climate-related impacts. Current research on the IBP ponds has revealed significant changes in the physical, chemical, and biological characteristics of these ponds over time. These changes include increased water temperatures, increased water column nutrient concentrations, the presence of at least one new chironomid species, and increased macrophyte cover. However, we have also observed significant annual variation in many measured variables and caution that this variation must be taken into account when attempting to make statements about longer-term change. The Barrow IBP tundra ponds represent one of the very few locations in the Arctic where long-term data are available on freshwater ecosystem structure and function. Continued monitoring and protection of these invaluable sites is required to help understand the implications of climate change on freshwater ecosystems in the Arctic.

Interannual variability in energy exchange and evapotranspiration over two semi-arid grasslands in Arizona

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meyers, T. P.; Krishnan, P.; Scott, R. L.; Kennedy, L.; Heuer, M.

2011-12-01

Continuous eddy correlation measurements of energy and water vapour above two semi-arid grasslands in southern Arizona, USA during 2004 to 2007 were examined to explain the factors controlling the seasonal and interannual variability in energy exchange and evapotranspiration (E). The study sites, a post-fire site (AG) and an unburned site (KG), received 43% to 87% of the annual precipitation (P) during the North American monsoon season (July-September) with the lowest values in the drought years of 2004 and 2005. Irrespective of the differences in temperature, surface albedo, vegetation cover and soil characteristics both sites responded similarly to changes in environmental conditions. The seasonal and interannual variations in the partitioning of net radiation to turbulent fluxes were mainly controlled by P and associated changes in soil water content (θ) and vegetation growth. Drastic changes in albedo, vegetation growth, energy fluxes occurred following the onset of the monsoon season in July. During dry or cold periods of autumn, winter and spring, sensible heat flux was the major component of energy balance whereas latent heat flux dominated during the warm and wet periods of summer. The July-September values of P, E, Priestly-Taylor coefficient and canopy surface conductance reached their lowest and the Bowen ratio reached its highest values in 2004 at AG and in 2005 at KG. During July-September, monthly E was linearly correlated to the monthly mean θ and the broadband normalized vegetation index (NDVI), whereas during May-June the relationship between NDVI and E were not significant. Annual E varied from 264 to 322 mm at AG and from 196 to 284 mm at KG with the lowest value during the severe drought year at the site. July-September E had positive correlation with total P, NDVI and the number of growing season days during that period. Annual P explained more than 80% of the variance in annual E. The study suggested strong coupling between soil water conditions and vegetation on energy exchange and E.

Effectiveness of Sealed Double-Ring Infiltrometers{trademark} and effects of changes in atmospheric pressure on hydraulic conductivity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McMullin, S.R.

The Savannah River Site is currently evaluating some 40 hazardous and radioactive-waste sites for remediation. Among the remedial alternatives considered is closure using a kaolin clay cap. The hydraulic conductivity suggested by the US Environmental Protection Agency is 1.0 {times} 10{sup {minus}7} cm/sec. One instrument to measure this value is the Sealed Double-Ring Infiltrometer{trademark} (SDRI). Six SDRI were recently installed on a kaolin test cap. Test results demonstrated uniform performance of these instruments. However, the test data showed as much as an order of magnitude of variation over time. This variation is attributed to both internal structural heterogeneity and variablemore » external boundary conditions. The internal heterogeneity is caused by construction variability within a specified range of moisture and density. The external influences considered are temperature and barometric pressure. Temperature was discharged as a source of heterogeneity because of a lack of correlation with test data and a negligible impact from the range of variability. However, a direct correlation was found between changes in barometric pressure and hydraulic conductivity. This correlation is most pronounced when pressure changes occur over a short period of time. Additionally, this correlation is related to a single soil layer. When the wetting front passes into a more porous foundation layer, the correlation with pressure changes disappears. Conclusions are that the SDRI performs adequately, with good repeatability of results. The duration of test is critical to assure a statistically valid data set. Data spikes resulting from pressure changes should be identified, and professional judgment used to determine the representative hydraulic conductivity. Further evaluation is recommended to determine the impact of pressure change on the actual hydraulic conductivity.« less

Nonstationarity of low flows and their timing in the eastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sadri, S.; Kam, J.; Sheffield, J.

2016-02-01

The analysis of the spatial and temporal patterns of low flows as well as their generation mechanisms over large geographic regions can provide valuable insights and understanding for climate change impacts, regional frequency analysis, risk assessment of extreme events, and decision-making regarding allowable withdrawals. The goal of this paper is to examine nonstationarity in low flow generation across the eastern US and explore the potential anthropogenic influences or climate drivers. We use nonparametric tests to identify abrupt and gradual changes in time series of low flows and their timing for 508 USGS streamflow gauging sites in the eastern US with more than 50 years of daily data, to systematically distinguish the effects of human intervention from those of climate variability. A time series decomposition algorithm was applied to 1-day, 7-day, 30-day, and 90-day annual low flow time series that combines the Box-Ljung test for detection of autocorrelation, the Pettitt test for abrupt step changes and the Mann-Kendall test for monotonic trends. Examination of the USGS notes for each site showed that many of the sites with step changes and around half of the sites with an increasing trend have been documented as having some kind of regulation. Sites with decreasing or no trend are less likely to have documented influences on flows. Overall, a general pattern of increasing low flows in the northeast and decreasing low flows in the southeast is evident over a common time period (1951-2005), even when discarding sites with significant autocorrelation, documented regulation or other human impacts. The north-south pattern of trends is consistent with changes in antecedent precipitation. The main exception is along the mid-Atlantic coastal aquifer system from eastern Virginia northwards, where low flows have decreased despite increasing precipitation, and suggests that declining groundwater levels due to pumping may have contributed to decreased low flows. For most sites, the majority of low flows occur in one season in the late summer to fall, as driven by the lower precipitation and higher evaporative demand in this season, but this is complicated in many regions because of the presence of a secondary low flow season in the winter for sites in the extreme northeast and in the spring for sites in Florida. Trends in low flow timing are generally undetectable, although abrupt step changes appear to be associated with regulation.

Downstream Effects of Diversion Dams on Riparian Vegetation Communities in the Routt National Forest, Colorado

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caskey, S. T.; Wohl, E. E.; Dwire, K. A.; Merritt, D. M.; Schnackenberg, L.

2012-12-01

The relationship between riparian vegetation and changes in fluvial processes as a response to flow diversion is not well understood. Water extraction affects the hydrologic flow regime (i.e., magnitude, duration, and frequency of flows) reducing peak and base-flows, which could negatively impact riparian vegetation. Vegetation communities are temporally and spatially variable and are strongly interrelated with alluvial landforms and hydrograph variability. This research compares riparian community characteristics on diverted and undiverted pool-riffle channels and low gradient valleys to examine changes associated with flow diversion in the Routt National Forest (RNF). The RNF is the only under-appropriated area in Colorado, making future water extraction proposals likely. Many small extraction canals siphon water from small, headwater streams in the RNF, but the site-specific or cumulative effects of these diversions on riverine ecosystems have not been investigated. Systematic investigation is necessary, however, to determine whether existing flow diversions have influenced riparian communities and, if so, which communities are most sensitive to diversions. A total of 36 sites were sampled with five channel cross sections established per site, extending into the riparian zone at distance of two times the active channel width, and vegetation was sampled using the line-point intercept method. Preliminary results suggest a shift in vegetation communities from typical riparian species composition to more upland vegetation. The relative sensitivity of these responses are different depending on valley type; low- gradient, unconfined areas are less tolerant of diversion than steeper, confined reaches. Additionally, when stratified by plant assemblage, Salix abundance is significantly reduced downstream of diversion. The results of this study contribute to the collective understanding of mountain headwater riparian vegetation community response to changes in flow regimes and fluvial processes related directly to water extraction by diversion dams.

Variability of hydrological droughts in the conterminous United States, 1951 through 2014

USGS Publications Warehouse

Austin, Samuel H.; Wolock, David M.; Nelms, David L.

2018-02-22

Spatial and temporal variability in the frequency, duration, and severity of hydrological droughts across the conterminous United States (CONUS) was examined using monthly mean streamflow measured at 872 sites from 1951 through 2014. Hydrological drought is identified as starting when streamflow falls below the 20th percentile streamflow value for 3 consecutive months and ending when streamflow remains above the 20th percentile streamflow value for 3 consecutive months. Mean drought frequency for all aggregated ecoregions in CONUS is 16 droughts per 100 years. Mean drought duration is 5 months, and mean drought severity is 39 percent on a scale ranging from 0 percent to 100 percent (with 100% being the most severe). Hydrological drought frequency is highest in the Western Mountains aggregated ecoregion and lowest in the Eastern Highlands, Northeast, and Southeast Plains aggregated ecoregions. Hydrological drought frequencies of 17 or more droughts per 100 years were found for the Central Plains, Southeast Coastal Plains, Western Mountains, and Western Xeric aggregated ecoregions. Drought duration and severity indicate spatial variability among the sites, but unlike drought frequency, do not show coherent spatial patterns. A comparison of an older period (1951–82) with a recent period (1983–2014) indicates few sites have statistically significant changes in drought frequency, drought duration, or drought severity at a 95-percent confidence level.

Attributing spatial and temporal changes in soil C in the UK to environmental drivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, Amy; Cosby, Bernard; Quin, Sam; Henrys, Pete; Robinson, David; Emmett, Bridget

2015-04-01

The largest terrestrial pool of carbon is found in soils. Understanding how soil C responds to drivers of change (land use and management, atmospheric deposition, climate change) and how these responses are modified by inherent soil properties is crucial if we are to manage soils more sustainably in the future. Here we attempt to attribute spatial and temporal changes in UK soil C to environmental drivers using data from the UK Countryside Survey (CS), a national soil survey across England, Scotland and Wales repeated in 1978, 1998 and 2007. A mixed model approach was used to model soil C concentration (g C kg-1) and density (t C ha-1) and their absolute changes for the time periods 1978-1998, 1998-2007 and 1978-2007 across the CS sites using a variety of explanatory variables: soil (parent material, pH, moisture, Olsen-P, Shannon Diversity Index); atmospheric deposition (nitrogen and sulphur); climate (growing degree days and rain); and land use (aggregate vegetation class). Spatially, prediction of soil C concentration was good; soil moisture, pH, vegetation class and dominant grain size were all significant predictors. Field capacity also appeared to be important; however this data was only collected for a fraction of sites. N% was also strongly related to soil C concentration and density, as would be expected due to coupling of C and N in soil OM pools. Although N may drive soil C through impact on plant productivity, this cannot be separated from correlated C and N losses with OM decomposition, and hence N was not included as a driver for modelling. Predictive power for C density is not as strong as for concentration, which may reflect nonlinear relationships not represented by the modelling approach. Temporally, change in soil C is more difficult to explain, and model predictive power was lower. Change in soil pH was important in explaining change in C concentration and density, along with change in atmospheric deposition; decrease in deposition and associated soil acidity (increase in pH) was associated with a decrease in soil C concentration and density. Change in soil moisture or rainfall was also important. Inherent soil and site properties such as soil texture, vegetation class and parent material appeared to contribute most to the prediction of soil C change through modulation of the relationship between change in soil C and change in pH. Including anthropogenic and natural drivers in models of soil C stocks and changes in the UK enables assessment of the relative importance of each across the UK CS sites, however interactions among the drivers are more difficult to disentangle. Given the statistical significance of a number of drivers and soil variables in predicting soil C stocks and changes in the UK, it is important that these continue to be measured to allow better model development and more reliable predictions of future soil C conditions.

Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site Ecological Monitoring Program 1995 annual report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

1995-05-31

The Ecological Monitoring Program (ECMP) was established at the Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site (Site) in September 1992. At that time, EcMP staff developed a Program Plan that was peer-reviewed by scientists from western universities before submittal to DOE RFFO in January 1993. The intent of the program is to measure several quantitative variables at different ecological scales in order to characterize the Rocky Flats ecosystem. This information is necessary to document ecological conditions at the Site in impacted and nonimpacted areas to determine if Site practices have had ecological impacts, either positive or negative. This information can be usedmore » by managers interested in future use scenarios and CERCLA activities. Others interested in impact analysis may also find the information useful. In addition, these measurements are entered into a database which will serve as a long-term information repository that will document long-term trends and potential future changes to the Site, both natural and anthropogenic.« less

Shell anomalies observed in a population of Archaias angulatus (Foraminifera) from the Florida Keys (USA) sampled in 1982-83 and 2006-07

USGS Publications Warehouse

Souder, H.C.; McCloskey, B.; Hallock, P.; Byrne, R.

2010-01-01

Archived specimens of Archaias angulatus collected live at a depth of < 2. m in John Pennekamp Coral Reef State Park, Key Largo, Florida, in June, September and December 1982, and March 1983, were compared to specimens collected live from the same site and months in 2006-07. Shells were examined using light microscopy for anomalous features, which were then documented using scanning electron microscopy. Seven different types of morphological abnormalities and five different surface texture anomalies were observed. Physical abnormalities included profoundly deformed, curled, asymmetrical, and uncoiled shells, irregular suture lines, surface protrusions, and breakage/repair. Textural anomalies observed were surface pits, dissolution features, microborings, microbial biofilms, and the presence of epibionts including bryzoans, cyanobacteria and foraminifers. The same kinds of features were found in this A. angulatus population in both 1982-83 collections and 2006-07 collections. Within-date variability was higher in specimens collected in 1982-83, while between-date variability was higher in 2006-07; overall the range of variability was similar. Given that the site was originally chosen for study because these foraminifers were so abundant, the lack of significant change indicates that the variability of the geochemical habitat is still within the range that A. angulatus can thrive. ?? 2010.

Sediment losses and gains across a gradient of livestock grazing and plant invasion in a cool, semi-arid grassland, Colorado Plateau, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Belnap, J.; Reynolds, R.L.; Reheis, M.C.; Phillips, S.L.; Urban, F.E.; Goldstein, H.L.

2009-01-01

Large sediment fluxes can have significant impacts on ecosystems. We measured incoming and outgoing sediment across a gradient of soil disturbance (livestock grazing, plowing) and annual plant invasion for 9 years. Our sites included two currently ungrazed sites: one never grazed by livestock and dominated by perennial grasses/well-developed biocrusts and one not grazed since 1974 and dominated by annual weeds with little biocrusts. We used two currently grazed sites: one dominated by annual weeds and the other dominated by perennial plants, both with little biocrusts. Precipitation was highly variable, with years of average, above-average, and extremely low precipitation. During years with average and above-average precipitation, the disturbed sites consistently produced 2.8 times more sediment than the currently undisturbed sites. The never grazed site always produced the least sediment of all the sites. During the drought years, we observed a 5600-fold increase in sediment production from the most disturbed site (dominated by annual grasses, plowed about 50 years previously and currently grazed by livestock) relative to the never grazed site dominated by perennial grasses and well-developed biocrusts, indicating a non-linear, synergistic response to increasing disturbance types and levels. Comparing sediment losses among the sites, biocrusts were most important in predicting site stability, followed by perennial plant cover. Incoming sediment was similar among the sites, and while inputs were up to 9-fold higher at the most heavily disturbed site during drought years compared to average years, the change during the drought conditions was small relative to the large change seen in the sediment outputs. ?? 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Caribbean coral growth influenced by anthropogenic aerosol emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwiatkowski, Lester; Cox, Peter M.; Economou, Theo; Halloran, Paul R.; Mumby, Peter J.; Booth, Ben B. B.; Carilli, Jessica; Guzman, Hector M.

2013-05-01

Coral growth rates are highly dependent on environmental variables such as sea surface temperature and solar irradiance. Multi-decadal variability in coral growth rates has been documented throughout the Caribbean over the past 150-200 years, and linked to variations in Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Multi-decadal variability in sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic, in turn, has been linked to volcanic and anthropogenic aerosol forcing. Here, we examine the drivers of changes in coral growth rates in the western Caribbean between 1880 and 2000, using previously published coral growth chronologies from two sites in the region, and a numerical model. Changes in coral growth rates over this period coincided with variations in sea surface temperature and incoming short-wave radiation. Our model simulations show that variations in the concentration of anthropogenic aerosols caused variations in sea surface temperature and incoming radiation in the second half of the twentieth century. Before this, variations in volcanic aerosols may have played a more important role. With the exception of extreme mass bleaching events, we suggest that neither climate change from greenhouse-gas emissions nor ocean acidification is necessarily the driver of multi-decadal variations in growth rates at some Caribbean locations. Rather, the cause may be regional climate change due to volcanic and anthropogenic aerosol emissions.

Spatio-Temporal Variability of Groundwater Storage in India

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bhanja, Soumendra; Rodell, Matthew; Li, Bailing; Mukherjee, Abhijit

2016-01-01

Groundwater level measurements from 3907 monitoring wells, distributed within 22 major river basins of India, are assessed to characterize their spatial and temporal variability. Ground water storage (GWS) anomalies (relative to the long-term mean) exhibit strong seasonality, with annual maxima observed during the monsoon season and minima during pre-monsoon season. Spatial variability of GWS anomalies increases with the extent of measurements, following the power law relationship, i.e., log-(spatial variability) is linearly dependent on log-(spatial extent).In addition, the impact of well spacing on spatial variability and the power law relationship is investigated. We found that the mean GWS anomaly sampled at a 0.25 degree grid scale closes to unweighted average over all wells. The absolute error corresponding to each basin grows with increasing scale, i.e., from 0.25 degree to 1 degree. It was observed that small changes in extent could create very large changes in spatial variability at large grid scales. Spatial variability of GWS anomaly has been found to vary with climatic conditions. To our knowledge, this is the first study of the effects of well spacing on groundwater spatial variability. The results may be useful for interpreting large scale groundwater variations from unevenly spaced or sparse groundwater well observations or for siting and prioritizing wells in a network for groundwater management. The output of this study could be used to maintain a cost effective groundwater monitoring network in the study region and the approach can also be used in other parts of the globe.

Spatio-temporal variability of groundwater storage in India.

PubMed

Bhanja, Soumendra N; Rodell, Matthew; Li, Bailing; Mukherjee, Abhijit

2017-01-01

Groundwater level measurements from 3907 monitoring wells, distributed within 22 major river basins of India, are assessed to characterize their spatial and temporal variability. Groundwater storage (GWS) anomalies (relative to the long-term mean) exhibit strong seasonality, with annual maxima observed during the monsoon season and minima during pre-monsoon season. Spatial variability of GWS anomalies increases with the extent of measurements, following the power law relationship, i.e., log-(spatial variability) is linearly dependent on log-(spatial extent). In addition, the impact of well spacing on spatial variability and the power law relationship is investigated. We found that the mean GWS anomaly sampled at a 0.25 degree grid scale closes to unweighted average over all wells. The absolute error corresponding to each basin grows with increasing scale, i.e., from 0.25 degree to 1 degree. It was observed that small changes in extent could create very large changes in spatial variability at large grid scales. Spatial variability of GWS anomaly has been found to vary with climatic conditions. To our knowledge, this is the first study of the effects of well spacing on groundwater spatial variability. The results may be useful for interpreting large scale groundwater variations from unevenly spaced or sparse groundwater well observations or for siting and prioritizing wells in a network for groundwater management. The output of this study could be used to maintain a cost effective groundwater monitoring network in the study region and the approach can also be used in other parts of the globe.

On using surface-source downhole-receiver logging to determine seismic slownesses

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boore, D.M.; Thompson, E.M.

2007-01-01

We present a method to solve for slowness models from surface-source downhole-receiver seismic travel-times. The method estimates the slownesses in a single inversion of the travel-times from all receiver depths and accounts for refractions at layer boundaries. The number and location of layer interfaces in the model can be selected based on lithologic changes or linear trends in the travel-time data. The interfaces based on linear trends in the data can be picked manually or by an automated algorithm. We illustrate the method with example sites for which geologic descriptions of the subsurface materials and independent slowness measurements are available. At each site we present slowness models that result from different interpretations of the data. The examples were carefully selected to address the reliability of interface-selection and the ability of the inversion to identify thin layers, large slowness contrasts, and slowness gradients. Additionally, we compare the models in terms of ground-motion amplification. These plots illustrate the sensitivity of site amplifications to the uncertainties in the slowness model. We show that one-dimensional site amplifications are insensitive to thin layers in the slowness models; although slowness is variable over short ranges of depth, this variability has little affect on ground-motion amplification at frequencies up to 5 Hz.

CO2 time series patterns in contrasting headwater streams of North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crawford, John T.; Stanley, Emily H.; Dornblaser, Mark M.; Striegl, Robert G.

2017-01-01

We explored the underlying patterns of temporal stream CO2 partial pressure (pCO2) variability using highfrequency sensors in seven disparate headwater streams distributed across the northern hemisphere. We also compared this dataset of [40,000 pCO2 records with other published records from lotic systems. Individual stream sites exhibited relatively distinct pCO2 patterns over time with few consistent traits across sites. Some sites showed strong diel variability, some exhibited increasing pCO2 with increasing discharge, whereas other streams had reduced pCO2 with increasing discharge or no clear response to changes in flow. The only ‘‘universal’’ signature observed in headwater streams was a late summer pCO2 maxima that was likely driven by greatest rates of organic matter respiration due to highest annual temperatures. However, we did not observe this seasonal pattern in a southern hardwood forest site, likely because the region was transitioning from a severe drought. This work clearly illustrates the heterogeneous nature of headwater streams, and highlights the idiosyncratic nature of a non-conservative solute that is jointly influenced by physics, hydrology, and biology. We suggest that future researchers carefully select sensor locations (within and among streams) and provide additional contextual information when attempting to explain pCO2 patterns.

Systematic Analysis of the Genetic Variability That Impacts SUMO Conjugation and Their Involvement in Human Diseases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Hao-Dong; Shi, Shao-Ping; Chen, Xiang; Qiu, Jian-Ding

2015-07-01

Protein function has been observed to rely on select essential sites instead of requiring all sites to be indispensable. Small ubiquitin-related modifier (SUMO) conjugation or sumoylation, which is a highly dynamic reversible process and its outcomes are extremely diverse, ranging from changes in localization to altered activity and, in some cases, stability of the modified, has shown to be especially valuable in cellular biology. Motivated by the significance of SUMO conjugation in biological processes, we report here on the first exploratory assessment whether sumoylation related genetic variability impacts protein functions as well as the occurrence of diseases related to SUMO. Here, we defined the SUMOAMVR as sumoylation related amino acid variations that affect sumoylation sites or enzymes involved in the process of connectivity, and categorized four types of potential SUMOAMVRs. We detected that 17.13% of amino acid variations are potential SUMOAMVRs and 4.83% of disease mutations could lead to SUMOAMVR with our system. More interestingly, the statistical analysis demonstrates that the amino acid variations that directly create new potential lysine sumoylation sites are more likely to cause diseases. It can be anticipated that our method can provide more instructive guidance to identify the mechanisms of genetic diseases.

Applicability of API ZYM to capture seasonal and spatial variabilities in lake and river sediments.

PubMed

Patel, Drashti; Gismondi, Renee; Alsaffar, Ali; Tiquia-Arashiro, Sonia M

2018-05-02

Waters draining into a lake carry with them much of the suspended sediment that is transported by rivers and streams from the local drainage basin. The organic matter processing in the sediments is executed by heterotrophic microbial communities, whose activities may vary spatially and temporally. Thus, to capture and evaluate some of these variabilities in the sediments, we sampled six sites: three from the St. Clair River and three from Lake St. Clair in spring, summer, fall, and winter of 2016. At all sites and dates, we investigated the spatial and temporal variations in 19 extracellular enzyme activities using API ZYM. Our results indicated that a broad range of enzymes were found to be active in the sediments. Phosphatases, lipases, and esterases were synthesized most intensively by the sediment microbial communities. No consistent difference was found between the lake and sediment samples. Differences were more obvious between sites and seasons. Sites with the highest metabolic (enzyme) diversity reflected the capacity of the sediment microbial communities to breakdown a broader range of substrates and may be linked to differences in river and lake water quality. The seasonal variability of the enzymes activities was governed by the variations of environmental factors caused by anthropogenic and terrestrial inputs, and provides information for a better understanding of the dynamics of sediment organic matter of the river and lake ecosystems. The experimental results suggest that API ZYM is a simple and rapid enzyme assay procedure to evaluate natural processes in ecosystems and their changes.

Analysis of variable sites between two complete South China tiger (Panthera tigris amoyensis) mitochondrial genomes.

PubMed

Zhang, Wenping; Yue, Bisong; Wang, Xiaofang; Zhang, Xiuyue; Xie, Zhong; Liu, Nonglin; Fu, Wenyuan; Yuan, Yaohua; Chen, Daqing; Fu, Danghua; Zhao, Bo; Yin, Yuzhong; Yan, Xiahui; Wang, Xinjing; Zhang, Rongying; Liu, Jie; Li, Maoping; Tang, Yao; Hou, Rong; Zhang, Zhihe

2011-10-01

In order to investigate the mitochondrial genome of Panthera tigris amoyensis, two South China tigers (P25 and P27) were analyzed following 15 cymt-specific primer sets. The entire mtDNA sequence was found to be 16,957 bp and 17,001 bp long for P25 and P27 respectively, and this difference in length between P25 and P27 occurred in the number of tandem repeats in the RS-3 segment of the control region. The structural characteristics of complete P. t. amoyensis mitochondrial genomes were also highly similar to those of P. uncia. Additionally, the rate of point mutation was only 0.3% and a total of 59 variable sites between P25 and P27 were found. Out of the 59 variable sites, 6 were located in 6 different tRNA genes, 6 in the 2 rRNA genes, 7 in non-coding regions (one located between tRNA-Asn and tRNA-Tyr and six in the D-loop), and 40 in 10 protein-coding genes. COI held the largest amount of variable sites (9 sites) and Cytb contained the highest variable rate (0.7%) in the complete sequences. Moreover, out of the 40 variable sites located in 10 protein-coding genes, 12 sites were nonsynonymous.

Testing tree indicator species for classifying site productivity in southern Appalachian hardwood stands

Treesearch

W. Henry McNab; David L. Loftis; R.M. Shefield

2002-01-01

Composite indices of site moisture and fertility regimes, site variables, and individual tree species were tested for their relationship with site productivity on forest survey plots in the southern Appalachian Mountains. Mew annual basal area increment was significantly associated with the fertility index and site variables including elevation, slope gradient, and...

Analysis strategies for longitudinal attachment loss data.

PubMed

Beck, J D; Elter, J R

2000-02-01

The purpose of this invited review is to describe and discuss methods currently in use to quantify the progression of attachment loss in epidemiological studies of periodontal disease, and to make recommendations for specific analytic methods based upon the particular design of the study and structure of the data. The review concentrates on the definition of incident attachment loss (ALOSS) and its component parts; measurement issues including thresholds and regression to the mean; methods of accounting for longitudinal change, including changes in means, changes in proportions of affected sites, incidence density, the effect of tooth loss and reversals, and repeated events; statistical models of longitudinal change, including the incorporation of the time element, use of linear, logistic or Poisson regression or survival analysis, and statistical tests; site vs person level of analysis, including statistical adjustment for correlated data; the strengths and limitations of ALOSS data. Examples from the Piedmont 65+ Dental Study are used to illustrate specific concepts. We conclude that incidence density is the preferred methodology to use for periodontal studies with more than one period of follow-up and that the use of studies not employing methods for dealing with complex samples, correlated data, and repeated measures does not take advantage of our current understanding of the site- and person-level variables important in periodontal disease and may generate biased results.

Forward Modeling of Oxygen Isotope Variability in Tropical Andean Ice Cores

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vuille, M. F.; Hurley, J. V.; Hardy, D. R.

2016-12-01

Ice core records from the tropical Andes serve as important archives of past tropical Pacific SST variability and changes in monsoon intensity upstream over the Amazon basin. Yet the interpretation of the oxygen isotopic signal in these ice cores remains controversial. Based on 10 years of continuous on-site glaciologic, meteorologic and isotopic measurements at the summit of the world's largest tropical ice cap, Quelccaya, in southern Peru, we developed a process-based physical forward model (proxy system model), capable of simulating intraseasonal, seasonal and interannual variability in delta-18O as observed in snow pits and short cores. Our results highlight the importance of taking into account post-depositional effects (sublimation and isotopic enrichment) to properly simulate the seasonal cycle. Intraseasonal variability is underestimated in our model unless the effects of cold air incursions, triggering significant monsoonal snowfall and more negative delta-18O values, are included. A number of sensitivity test highlight the influence of changing boundary conditions on the final snow isotopic profile. Such tests also show that our model provides much more realistic data than applying direct model output of precipitation delta-18O from isotope-enabled climate models (SWING ensemble). The forward model was calibrated with and run under present-day conditions, but it can also be driven with past climate forcings to reconstruct paleo-monsoon variability and investigate the influence of changes in radiative forcings (solar, volcanic) on delta-18O variability in Andean snow. The model is transferable and may be used to render a paleoclimatic context at other ice core locations.

Using Digital Repeat Photography to Link Vegetative Phenology and Carbon Fluxes to Biotic and Abiotic Drivers in Three Semi-arid Systems (New Mexico, USA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hallmark, A.; Litvak, M. E.; Collins, S. L.

2015-12-01

Arid and semi-arid ecosystems account for over 45% of global land cover. While mean annual carbon uptake in these ecosystems is relatively low, aridlands collectively store a significant amount of carbon. There is high inter- and intra-annual variability of plant growth in aridlands, depending largely on the timing and size of rainfall events. This variation is also of great significance, as the variation in annual semi-aridland carbon uptake accounts for ~39% of the inter-annual variability of the global terrestrial carbon sink, the largest percentage of any land cover type. Although arid and semi-arid ecosystems are of global importance, they are understudied. To better understand the drivers and variability of carbon uptake in these critical ecosystems, we utilize a six-year record of digital images (45,000+ images), carbon flux and meteorological data, soil water content, and associated ecological measurements from three eddy covariance tower sites in central New Mexico. These sites include a Chihuahuan Desert/short-grass Plains grassland site, and post-fire successional grassland site, and a creosote-encroached shrubland site, each of which have unique species compositions, carbon fluxes, and reactions to disturbance and resource addition. All images used are co-registered and corrected for radial lens distortions (when necessary) and greenness indices (2GRBi, gcc, and/or NDVI) are calculated for each scene's overall "canopy" and for individual species and plant functional types therein. At all three sites, camera-derived greenness is correlated to measured carbon uptake with fine resolution (R2 up to 0.8), capturing temporal and spatial variation usually not seen in satellite-based imagery. At sites with lower LAI, species-specific ROI's were more correlated to the site's measured carbon flux across shorter time scales. Understanding the biota comprising each image and its contribution to changing scene greenness at different times of year can lead to more accurate carbon flux predictions in semi-arid systems, with species-specific biotic constraints (maximum growth rate, lifespan, and seasonality), growth parameters (light availability, VPD, soil water content, and temperature) as well as community-wide abiotic drivers considered.

Impact of Soil Moisture Dynamics on ASAR Observed Backscatters and its Spatial Variability over the Upstream of the Heihe River Basin, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Shuguo

2013-01-01

The so called change detection method is a promising way to acquire soil moisture (SM) dynamics dependent on time series of radar backscatter (σ0) observations. The current study is a preceded step for using this method to carry out SM inversion at basin scale, in order to investigate the applicability of the change detection method in the Heihe River Basin, and to inspect the sensitivity of SAR signals to soil moisture variations. At the meantime, a prior knowledge of SM dynamics and land heterogeneities that may contribute to backscatter observations can be obtained. The impact of land surface states on spatial and temporal σ0 variability measured by ASAR has been evaluated in the upstream of the Heihe River Basin, which was one of the foci experimental areas (FEAs) in Watershed Allied Telemetry Experimental Research (WATER). Based on the in situ measurements provided by an automatic meteorological station (AMS) established at the A’rou site and time series of ASAR observations focused on a 1 km2 area, the relationships between the temporal dynamics of σ0 with in situ SM variations, and land heterogeneities of the study area according to the characteristics of spatial variability of σ0, were identified. The in situ measurements of soil moisture and temperature show a very clear seasonal freeze/thaw cycle in the study site. The temporal σ0 evolvement is basically coherent with ground measurements.

Assessing the impact of local meteorological variables on surface ozone in Hong Kong during 2000-2015 using quantile and multiple line regression models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Wei; Fan, Shaojia; Guo, Hai; Gao, Bo; Sun, Jiaren; Chen, Laiguo

2016-11-01

The quantile regression (QR) method has been increasingly introduced to atmospheric environmental studies to explore the non-linear relationship between local meteorological conditions and ozone mixing ratios. In this study, we applied QR for the first time, together with multiple linear regression (MLR), to analyze the dominant meteorological parameters influencing the mean, 10th percentile, 90th percentile and 99th percentile of maximum daily 8-h average (MDA8) ozone concentrations in 2000-2015 in Hong Kong. The dominance analysis (DA) was used to assess the relative importance of meteorological variables in the regression models. Results showed that the MLR models worked better at suburban and rural sites than at urban sites, and worked better in winter than in summer. QR models performed better in summer for 99th and 90th percentiles and performed better in autumn and winter for 10th percentile. And QR models also performed better in suburban and rural areas for 10th percentile. The top 3 dominant variables associated with MDA8 ozone concentrations, changing with seasons and regions, were frequently associated with the six meteorological parameters: boundary layer height, humidity, wind direction, surface solar radiation, total cloud cover and sea level pressure. Temperature rarely became a significant variable in any season, which could partly explain the peak of monthly average ozone concentrations in October in Hong Kong. And we found the effect of solar radiation would be enhanced during extremely ozone pollution episodes (i.e., the 99th percentile). Finally, meteorological effects on MDA8 ozone had no significant changes before and after the 2010 Asian Games.

Process connectivity reveals ecohydrologic sensitivity to drought and rainfall pulses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goodwell, A. E.; Kumar, P.

2017-12-01

Ecohydrologic fluxes within atmosphere, canopy and soil systems exhibit complex and joint variability. This complexity arises from direct and indirect forcing and feedback interactions that can cause fluctuations to propagate between water, energy, and nutrient fluxes at various time scales. When an ecosystem is perturbed in the form of a single storm event, an accumulating drought, or changes in climate and land cover, this aspect of joint variability may dictate responsiveness and resilience of the entire system. A characterization of the time-dependent and multivariate connectivity between processes, fluxes, and states is necessary to identify and understand these aspects of ecohydrologic systems. We construct Temporal Information Partitioning Networks (TIPNets), based on information theory measures, to identify time-dependencies between variables measured at flux towers along elevation and climate gradients in relation to their responses to moisture-related perturbations. Along a flux tower transect in the Reynolds Creek Critical Zone Observatory (CZO) in Idaho, we detect a significant network response to a large 2015 dry season rainfall event that enhances microbial respiration and latent heat fluxes. At a transect in the Southern Sierra CZO in California, we explore network properties in relation to drought responses from 2011 to 2015. We find that both high and low elevation sites exhibit decreased connectivity between atmospheric and soil variables and latent heat fluxes, but the higher elevation site is less sensitive to this altered connectivity in terms of average monthly heat fluxes. Through a novel approach to gage the responsiveness of ecosystem fluxes to shifts in connectivity, this study aids our understanding of ecohydrologic sensitivity to short-term rainfall events and longer term droughts. This study is relevant to ecosystem resilience under a changing climate, and can lead to a greater understanding of shifting behaviors in many types of complex systems.

Distribution and variability of total mercury in snow cover-a case study from a semi-urban site in Poznań, Poland.

PubMed

Siudek, Patrycja

2016-12-01

In the present paper, the inter-seasonal Hg variability in snow cover was examined based on multivariate statistical analysis of chemical and meteorological data. Samples of freshly fallen snow cover were collected at the semi-urban site in Poznań (central Poland), during 3-month field measurements in winter 2013. It was showed that concentrations of atmospherically deposited Hg were highly variable in snow cover, from 0.43 to 12.5 ng L -1 , with a mean value of 4.62 ng L -1 . The highest Hg concentration in snow cover coincided with local intensification of fossil fuel burning, indicating large contribution from various anthropogenic sources such as commercial and domestic heating, power generation plants, and traffic-related pollution. Moreover, the variability of Hg in collected snow samples was associated with long-range transport of pollutants, nocturnal inversion layer, low boundary layer height, and relatively low air temperature. For three snow episodes, Hg concentration in snow cover was attributed to southerly advection, suggesting significant contribution from the highly polluted region of Poland (Upper Silesia) and major European industrial hotspots. However, the peak Hg concentration was measured in samples collected during predominant N to NE advection of polluted air masses and after a relatively longer period without precipitation. Such significant contribution to the higher Hg accumulation in snow cover was associated with intensive emission from anthropogenic sources (coal combustion) and atmospheric conditions in this area. These results suggest that further measurements are needed to determine how the Hg transformation paths in snow cover change in response to longer/shorter duration of snow cover occurrence and to determine the interactions between mercury and absorbing carbonaceous aerosols in the light of climate change.

Atmospheric deposition of trace elements at urban and forest sites in central Poland - Insight into seasonal variability and sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siudek, Patrycja; Frankowski, Marcin

2017-12-01

This paper includes the results of chemical composition of bulk deposition samples collected simultaneously at urban (Poznań city) and forest (Jeziory) sites in central Poland, between April 2013 and October 2014. Rainwater samples were analyzed for trace elements (As, Zn, Ni, Pb, Cu, Cr, Cd) and physicochemical parameters. Overall, three metals, i.e. Zn, Pb and Cu were the most abundant anthropogenic constituents of rainwater samples from both locations. In Poznań city, the rainwater concentrations of trace elements did not differ significantly between spring and summer. However, they were elevated and more variable during the cold season (fall and winter), suggesting strong contribution from local high-temperature processes related to coal combustion (commercial and residential sector). In contrast to the urban site, relatively low variability in concentrations was found for Cu, Ni, Zn at the forest site, where direct impact of emission from vehicle traffic and coal-fired combustion (power plants) was much lower. The bulk deposition fluxes of Ni, As, Pb and Zn at this site exhibited a clear trend, with higher values during the cold season (fall and winter) than in spring and summer. At the urban site, the sums of total bulk deposition fluxes of Zn, Cu, Pb, Ni, As, Cr, Cd were as follows: 8460.4, 4209.2, 2247.4, 1882.1, 606.6, 281.6 and 31.4 μg m- 2. In addition, during the winter season, a significantly higher deposition fluxes of Cu and Zn were observed for rain (on average 103.8 and 129.4 μg m- 2, respectively) as compared to snow (19.7 μg Cu m- 2 and 54.1 μg Zn m- 2). This suggests that different deposition pattern of trace elements for rain, mixed and snow was probably the effect of several factors: precipitation type, changes in emission and favorable meteorological situation during rain events.

Spatial patterns in occupancy and reproduction of Golden Eagles during drought: Prospects for conservation in changing environments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wiens, David; Kolar, Patrick; Hunt, W. Grainger; Hunt, Teresa; Fuller, Mark R.; Bell, Douglas A.

2018-01-01

We used a broad-scale sampling design to investigate spatial patterns in occupancy and breeding success of territorial pairs of Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) in the Diablo Range, California, USA, during a period of exceptional drought (2014–2016). We surveyed 138 randomly selected sample sites over 4 occasions each year and identified 199 pairs of eagles, 100 of which were detected in focal sample sites. We then used dynamic multistate modeling to identify relationships between site occupancy and reproduction of Golden Eagles relative to spatial variability in landscape composition and drought conditions. We observed little variability among years in site occupancy (3-yr mean = 0.74), but the estimated annual probability of successful reproduction was relatively low during the study period and declined from 0.39 (± 0.08 SE) to 0.18 (± 0.07 SE). Probabilities of site occupancy and reproduction were substantially greater at sample sites that were occupied by successful breeders in the previous year, indicating the presence of sites that were consistently used by successfully reproducing eagles. We found strong evidence for nonrandom spatial distribution in both occupancy and reproduction: Sites with the greatest potential for occupancy were characterized by rugged terrain conditions with intermediate amounts of grassland interspersed with patches of oak woodland and coniferous forest, whereas successful reproduction was most strongly associated with the amount of precipitation that a site received during the nesting period. Our findings highlight the contribution of consistently occupied and productive breeding sites to overall productivity of the local breeding population, and show that both occupancy and reproduction at these sites were maintained even during a period of exceptional drought. Our approach to quantifying and mapping site quality should be especially useful for the spatial prioritization of compensation measures intended to help offset the impacts of increasing human land use and development on Golden Eagles and their habitats.

Coastal monitoring solutions of the geomorphological response of beach-dune systems using multi-temporal LiDAR datasets (Vendée coast, France)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Mauff, Baptiste; Juigner, Martin; Ba, Antoine; Robin, Marc; Launeau, Patrick; Fattal, Paul

2018-03-01

Three beach and dune systems located in the northeastern part of the Bay of Biscay in France were monitored over 5 years with a time series of three airborne LiDAR datasets. The three study sites illustrate a variety of morphological beach types found in this region. Reproducible monitoring solutions adapted to basic and complex beach and dune morphologies using LiDAR time series were investigated over two periods bounded by the three surveys. The first period (between May 2008 and August 2010) is characterized by a higher prevalence of storm events, and thus has a greater potential for eroding the coast, than the second period (between August 2010 and September 2013). During the first period, the central and northeastern part of the Bay of Biscay was notably impacted by Storm Xynthia, with water levels and wave heights exceeding the 10-year return period and 1-year return period, respectively. Despite differences in dune morphology between the sites, the dune crest (Dhigh) and the dune base (Dlow) are efficiently extracted from each DEM. Based on the extracted dune base, an original shoreline mobility indicator is built displaying a combination of the horizontal and vertical migrations of this geomorphic indicator between two LiDAR datasets. A 'Geomorphic Change Detection' is also completed by computing DEMs of Difference (DoD) resulting in segregated maps of erosion and deposition and sediment budgets. Accounting for the accuracy of LiDAR datasets, a probabilistic approach at a 95% confidence interval is used as a threshold for the Geomorphic Change Detection showing more reliable results. However, caution should be taken when interpreting thresholded maps of changes and sediment budgets because some beach processes may be masked, especially on wide tidal beaches, by only keeping the most significant changes. The results of the shoreline mobility and Geomorphic Change Detection show a high variability in the beach responses between and within the three study sites, explained mainly by beach orientation and local factors. Despite variable site-specific mechanisms, the recovery processes redistribute the available sand more on the upper parts of the beach, producing significant deposition generally in the form of embryo dunes. The monitoring of the beach and dune systems with airborne LiDAR datasets reveals that the three study sites show diverse behaviours during the first period likely associated with storms, while the analysis show more homogenous beach responses during the second period likely associated with a recovery phase.

Applying probabilistic temporal and multisite data quality control methods to a public health mortality registry in Spain: a systematic approach to quality control of repositories.

PubMed

Sáez, Carlos; Zurriaga, Oscar; Pérez-Panadés, Jordi; Melchor, Inma; Robles, Montserrat; García-Gómez, Juan M

2016-11-01

To assess the variability in data distributions among data sources and over time through a case study of a large multisite repository as a systematic approach to data quality (DQ). Novel probabilistic DQ control methods based on information theory and geometry are applied to the Public Health Mortality Registry of the Region of Valencia, Spain, with 512 143 entries from 2000 to 2012, disaggregated into 24 health departments. The methods provide DQ metrics and exploratory visualizations for (1) assessing the variability among multiple sources and (2) monitoring and exploring changes with time. The methods are suited to big data and multitype, multivariate, and multimodal data. The repository was partitioned into 2 probabilistically separated temporal subgroups following a change in the Spanish National Death Certificate in 2009. Punctual temporal anomalies were noticed due to a punctual increment in the missing data, along with outlying and clustered health departments due to differences in populations or in practices. Changes in protocols, differences in populations, biased practices, or other systematic DQ problems affected data variability. Even if semantic and integration aspects are addressed in data sharing infrastructures, probabilistic variability may still be present. Solutions include fixing or excluding data and analyzing different sites or time periods separately. A systematic approach to assessing temporal and multisite variability is proposed. Multisite and temporal variability in data distributions affects DQ, hindering data reuse, and an assessment of such variability should be a part of systematic DQ procedures. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Medical Informatics Association. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Multi-scale temporal patterns in fish presence in a high-velocity tidal channel

PubMed Central

Viehman, Haley A.

2017-01-01

The natural variation of fish presence in high-velocity tidal channels is not well understood. A better understanding of fish use of these areas would aid in predicting fish interactions with marine hydrokinetic (MHK) devices, the effects of which are uncertain but of high concern. To characterize the patterns in fish presence at a tidal energy site in Cobscook Bay, Maine, we examined two years of hydroacoustic data continuously collected at the proposed depth of an MHK turbine with a bottom-mounted, side-looking echosounder. The maximum number of fish counted per hour ranged from hundreds in the early spring to over 1,000 in the fall. Counts varied greatly with tidal and diel cycles in a seasonally changing relationship, likely linked to the seasonally changing fish community of the bay. In the winter and spring, higher hourly counts were generally confined to ebb tides and low slack tides near sunrise and sunset. In summer and fall of each year, the highest fish counts shifted to night and occurred during ebb, low slack, and flood tides. Fish counts were not linked to current speed, and did not decrease as current speed increased, contrary to observations at other tidal power sites. As fish counts may be proportional to the encounter rate of fish with an MHK turbine at the same depth, highly variable counts indicate that the risk to fish is similarly variable. The links between fish presence and environmental cycles at this site will likely be present at other locations with similar environmental forcing, making these observations useful in predicting potential fish interactions at tidal energy sites worldwide. PMID:28493894

Multi-scale temporal patterns in fish presence in a high-velocity tidal channel.

PubMed

Viehman, Haley A; Zydlewski, Gayle Barbin

2017-01-01

The natural variation of fish presence in high-velocity tidal channels is not well understood. A better understanding of fish use of these areas would aid in predicting fish interactions with marine hydrokinetic (MHK) devices, the effects of which are uncertain but of high concern. To characterize the patterns in fish presence at a tidal energy site in Cobscook Bay, Maine, we examined two years of hydroacoustic data continuously collected at the proposed depth of an MHK turbine with a bottom-mounted, side-looking echosounder. The maximum number of fish counted per hour ranged from hundreds in the early spring to over 1,000 in the fall. Counts varied greatly with tidal and diel cycles in a seasonally changing relationship, likely linked to the seasonally changing fish community of the bay. In the winter and spring, higher hourly counts were generally confined to ebb tides and low slack tides near sunrise and sunset. In summer and fall of each year, the highest fish counts shifted to night and occurred during ebb, low slack, and flood tides. Fish counts were not linked to current speed, and did not decrease as current speed increased, contrary to observations at other tidal power sites. As fish counts may be proportional to the encounter rate of fish with an MHK turbine at the same depth, highly variable counts indicate that the risk to fish is similarly variable. The links between fish presence and environmental cycles at this site will likely be present at other locations with similar environmental forcing, making these observations useful in predicting potential fish interactions at tidal energy sites worldwide.

Distribution and abundance of stream fishes in relation to barriers: implications for monitoring stream recovery after barrier removal

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zydlewski, Joseph D.; Coghlan, Stephen M.; Gardner, C.; Saunders, R.

2011-01-01

Dams are ubiquitous in coastal regions and have altered stream habitats and the distribution and abundance of stream fishes in those habitats by disrupting hydrology, temperature regime and habitat connectivity. Dam removal is a common restoration tool, but often the response of the fish assemblage is not monitored rigorously. Sedgeunkedunk Stream, a small tributary to the Penobscot River (Maine, USA), has been the focus of a restoration effort that includes the removal of two low-head dams. In this study, we quantified fish assemblage metrics along a longitudinal gradient in Sedgeunkedunk Stream and also in a nearby reference stream. By establishing pre-removal baseline conditions and associated variability and the conditions and variability immediately following removal, we can characterize future changes in the system associated with dam removal. Over 2 years prior to dam removal, species richness and abundance in Sedgeunkedunk Stream were highest downstream of the lowest dam, lowest immediately upstream of that dam and intermediate farther upstream; patterns were similar in the reference stream. Although seasonal and annual variation in metrics within each site was substantial, the overall upstream-to-downstream pattern along the stream gradient was remarkably consistent prior to dam removal. Immediately after dam removal, we saw significant decreases in richness and abundance downstream of the former dam site and a corresponding increase in fish abundance upstream of the former dam site. No such changes occurred in reference sites. Our results show that by quantifying baseline conditions in a small stream before restoration, the effects of stream restoration efforts on fish assemblages can be monitored successfully. These data set the stage for the long-term assessment of Sedgeunkedunk Stream and provide a simple methodology for assessment in other restoration projects.

Multi-scale temporal patterns in fish presence in a high-velocity tidal channel

DOE PAGES

Viehman, Haley A.; Zydlewski, Gayle Barbin; Hewitt, Judi

2017-05-11

The natural variation of fish presence in high-velocity tidal channels is not well understood. A better understanding of fish use of these areas would aid in predicting fish interactions with marine hydrokinetic (MHK) devices, the effects of which are uncertain but of high concern. To characterize the patterns in fish presence at a tidal energy site in Cobscook Bay, Maine, we examined two years of hydroacoustic data continuously collected at the proposed depth of an MHK turbine with a bottom-mounted, side-looking echosounder. The maximum number of fish counted per hour ranged from hundreds in the early spring to over 1,000more » in the fall. Counts varied greatly with tidal and diel cycles in a seasonally changing relationship, likely linked to the seasonally changing fish community of the bay. In the winter and spring, higher hourly counts were generally confined to ebb tides and low slack tides near sunrise and sunset. In summer and fall of each year, the highest fish counts shifted to night and occurred during ebb, low slack, and flood tides. Fish counts were not linked to current speed, and did not decrease as current speed increased, contrary to observations at other tidal power sites. As fish counts may be proportional to the encounter rate of fish with an MHK turbine at the same depth, highly variable counts indicate that the risk to fish is similarly variable. The links between fish presence and environmental cycles at this site will likely be present at other locations with similar environmental forcing, making these observations useful in predicting potential fish interactions at tidal energy sites worldwide.« less

Multi-scale temporal patterns in fish presence in a high-velocity tidal channel

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Viehman, Haley A.; Zydlewski, Gayle Barbin; Hewitt, Judi

The natural variation of fish presence in high-velocity tidal channels is not well understood. A better understanding of fish use of these areas would aid in predicting fish interactions with marine hydrokinetic (MHK) devices, the effects of which are uncertain but of high concern. To characterize the patterns in fish presence at a tidal energy site in Cobscook Bay, Maine, we examined two years of hydroacoustic data continuously collected at the proposed depth of an MHK turbine with a bottom-mounted, side-looking echosounder. The maximum number of fish counted per hour ranged from hundreds in the early spring to over 1,000more » in the fall. Counts varied greatly with tidal and diel cycles in a seasonally changing relationship, likely linked to the seasonally changing fish community of the bay. In the winter and spring, higher hourly counts were generally confined to ebb tides and low slack tides near sunrise and sunset. In summer and fall of each year, the highest fish counts shifted to night and occurred during ebb, low slack, and flood tides. Fish counts were not linked to current speed, and did not decrease as current speed increased, contrary to observations at other tidal power sites. As fish counts may be proportional to the encounter rate of fish with an MHK turbine at the same depth, highly variable counts indicate that the risk to fish is similarly variable. The links between fish presence and environmental cycles at this site will likely be present at other locations with similar environmental forcing, making these observations useful in predicting potential fish interactions at tidal energy sites worldwide.« less

Synthesizing plant phenological indicators from multispecies datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rutishauser, This; Peñuelas, Josep; Filella, Iolanda; Gehrig, Regula; Scherrer, Simon C.; Röthlisberger, Christian

2014-05-01

Changes in the seasonality of life cycles of plants from phenological observations are traditionally analysed at the species level. Trends and correlations with main environmental driving variables show a coherent picture across the globe. The question arises whether there is an integrated phenological signal across species that describes common interannual variability. Is there a way to express synthetic phenological indicators from multispecies datasets that serve decision makers as usefull tools? Can these indicators be derived in such a robust way that systematic updates yield necessary information for adaptation measures? We address these questions by analysing multi-species phenological data sets with leaf-unfolding and flowering observations from 30 sites across Europe between 40° and 63°N including data from PEP725, the Swiss Plant Phenological Observation Network and one legacy data set. Starting in 1951 the data sets were synthesized by multivariate analysis (Principal Component Analysis). The representativeness of the site specific indicator was tested against subsets including only leaf-unfolding or flowering phases, and by a comparison with a 50% random sample of the available phenophases for 500 time steps. Results show that a synthetic indicators explains up to 79% of the variance at each site - usually 40-50% or more. Robust linear trends over the common period 1971-2000 indicate an overall change of the indicator of -0.32 days/year with lower uncertainty than previous studies. Advances were more pronounced in southern and northern Europe. The indicator-based analysis provides a promising tool for synthesizing site-based plant phenological records and is a companion to, and validating data for, an increasing number of phenological measurements derived from phenological models and satellite sensors.

Loss of Asparagine-Linked Glycosylation Sites in Variable Region 5 of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 Envelope Is Associated with Resistance to CD4 Antibody Ibalizumab ▿

PubMed Central

Toma, Jonathan; Weinheimer, Steven P.; Stawiski, Eric; Whitcomb, Jeannette M.; Lewis, Stanley T.; Petropoulos, Christos J.; Huang, Wei

2011-01-01

Ibalizumab (formerly TNX-355) is a first-in-class, monoclonal antibody inhibitor of CD4-mediated human immunodeficiency type 1 (HIV-1) entry. Multiple clinical trials with HIV-infected patients have demonstrated the antiviral activity, safety, and tolerability of ibalizumab treatment. A 9-week phase Ib study adding ibalizumab monotherapy to failing drug regimens led to transient reductions in HIV viral loads and the evolution of HIV-1 variants with reduced susceptibility to ibalizumab. This report characterizes these variants by comparing the phenotypic susceptibilities and envelope (env) sequences of (i) paired baseline and on-treatment virus populations, (ii) individual env clones from selected paired samples, and (iii) env clones containing site-directed mutations. Viruses with reduced susceptibility to ibalizumab were found to exhibit reduced susceptibility to the anti-CD4 antibody RPA-T4. Conversely, susceptibility to soluble CD4, which targets the HIV-1 gp120 envelope protein, was enhanced. No changes in susceptibility to the fusion inhibitor enfuvirtide or the CCR5 antagonist maraviroc were observed. Functionally, viruses with reduced ibalizumab susceptibility also displayed high levels of infectivity relative to those of paired baseline viruses. Individual env clones exhibiting reduced ibalizumab susceptibility contained multiple amino acid changes in different regions relative to the paired baseline clones. In particular, clones with reduced susceptibility to ibalizumab contained fewer potential asparagine-linked glycosylation sites (PNGSs) in variable region 5 (V5) than did paired ibalizumab-susceptible clones. The reduction in ibalizumab susceptibility due to the loss of V5 PNGSs was confirmed by site-directed mutagenesis. Taken together, these findings provide important insights into resistance to this new class of antiretroviral drug. PMID:21289125

Geologic Variable Associated with Height of Yellow-Poplar Stand in the Bald Mountains of North Carolina

Treesearch

W. Henry McNab; Carl E. Merschat

1990-01-01

Quartz grain size and mylonitization, geologic variables determined fromrocks on sites, were associated with total height of yellow-poplar (Liriodendron tulipifera L.) standsand may be of value as independent variables in modeling tree growth from site characteristics. A predictive model containing quartz grain site and stand age accounted for about 54% of the...

The Site Variability Issue in Follow Through Revisited: Some New Data and Some Personal Insights.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gersten, Russell

The site variability issue for Direct Instruction Follow Through sites is examined from a variety of perspectives--meta-analysis of the Abt Associates' data, norm-referenced comparisons, and a longitudinal look at stability of effects. Much of the seemingly unexplained variability found in both the Abt report and the reports by M. Kennedy and E.…

Solar and atmospheric forcing on mountain lakes.

PubMed

Luoto, Tomi P; Nevalainen, Liisa

2016-10-01

We investigated the influence of long-term external forcing on aquatic communities in Alpine lakes. Fossil microcrustacean (Cladocera) and macrobenthos (Chironomidae) community variability in four Austrian high-altitude lakes, determined as ultra-sensitive to climate change, were compared against records of air temperature, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and solar forcing over the past ~400years. Summer temperature variability affected both aquatic invertebrate groups in all study sites. The influence of NAO and solar forcing on aquatic invertebrates was also significant in the lakes except in the less transparent lake known to have remained uniformly cold during the past centuries due to summertime snowmelt input. The results suggest that external forcing plays an important role in these pristine ecosystems through their impacts on limnology of the lakes. Not only does the air temperature variability influence the communities but also larger-scale external factors related to atmospheric circulation patterns and solar activity cause long-term changes in high-altitude aquatic ecosystems, through their connections to hydroclimatic conditions and light environment. These findings are important in the assessment of climate change impacts on aquatic ecosystems and in greater understanding of the consequences of external forcing on lake ontogeny. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Analysis of the El Niño/La Niña-Southern Oscillation variability and malaria in the Estado Sucre, Venezuela.

PubMed

Delgado-Petrocelli, Laura; Córdova, Karenia; Camardiel, Alberto; Aguilar, Víctor H; Hernández, Denise; Ramos, Santiago

2012-09-01

The last decade has seen an unprecedented, worldwide acceleration of environmental and climate changes. These processes impact the dynamics of natural systems, which include components associated with human communities such as vector-borne diseases. The dynamics of environmental and climate variables, altered by global change as reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, affect the distribution of many tropical diseases. Complex systems, e.g. the El Niño/La Niña-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), in which environmental variables operate synergistically, can provoke the reemergence and emergence of vector-borne diseases at new sites. This research investigated the influence of ENSO events on malaria incidence by determining the relationship between climate variations, expressed as warm, cold and neutral phases, and their relation to the number of malaria cases in some north-eastern municipalities of Venezuela (Estado Sucre) during the period 1990-2000. Significant differences in malaria incidence were found, particularly in the La Niña ENSO phases (cold) of moderate intensity. These findings should be taken into account for surveillance and control in the future as they shed light on important indicators that can lead to reduced vulnerability to malaria.

Isotopic composition of transpiration and rates of change in leaf water isotopologue storage in response to environmental variables.

PubMed

Simonin, Kevin A; Roddy, Adam B; Link, Percy; Apodaca, Randy; Tu, Kevin P; Hu, Jia; Dawson, Todd E; Barbour, Margaret M

2013-12-01

During daylight hours, the isotope composition of leaf water generally approximates steady-state leaf water isotope enrichment model predictions. However, until very recently there was little direct confirmation that isotopic steady-state (ISS) transpiration in fact exists. Using isotope ratio infrared spectroscopy (IRIS) and leaf gas exchange systems we evaluated the isotope composition of transpiration and the rate of change in leaf water isotopologue storage (isostorage) when leaves were exposed to variable environments. In doing so, we developed a method for controlling the absolute humidity entering the gas exchange cuvette for a wide range of concentrations without changing the isotope composition of water vapour. The measurement system allowed estimation of (18)O enrichment both at the evaporation site and for bulk leaf water, in the steady state and the non-steady state. We show that non-steady-state effects dominate the transpiration isoflux even when leaves are at physiological steady state. Our results suggest that a variable environment likely prevents ISS transpiration from being achieved and that this effect may be exacerbated by lengthy leaf water turnover times due to high leaf water contents. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

How land degradation affects the carbon balance and its component processes: case of study in SE Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

López Ballesteros, Ana; Oyonarte, Cecilio; Kowalski, Andrew S.; Serrano-Ortiz, Penélope; Sánchez-Cañete, Enrique P.; Rosario Moya, M.; Domingo, Francisco

2017-04-01

The concept of land degradation stems from the loss of an ecosystem's biological productivity, which in turn relies on several degradation processes such as long-term loss of natural vegetation, depletion of soil nutrients, soil compaction or water and wind erosion. In this context, desertification means land degradation in arid, semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas due to climatic and/or human factors. Currently, drylands occupy more than one third of the global terrestrial surface and will probably expand under future climate change scenarios. Drylands' key role in the global C balance has been demonstrated, but the effects of desertification and/or climate change on C sequestration by these ecosystems needs further research. In the present study, we compare net carbon exchange between two experimental sites representing a "degraded" and "non-degraded" grazed semiarid grasslands, separated by ˜15 km in SE Spain, via eddy covariance measurements over 6 years, with high variability in precipitation magnitude and distribution. Results show a striking difference in the annual C balances with average emissions of 196 ± 40 and -23 ± 20 g C m-2 yr-1 for the "degraded" and "non-degraded" sites, respectively. At the seasonal scale, differing patterns in net CO2 fluxes were detected over both growing and dry seasons. As expected, larger net C uptake over longer periods was observed in the "non-degraded" site, however, much greater net C release was measured in the "degraded" site over drought period. We tested differences in all monitored meteorological, ambient and subsoil variables and found most relevant that CO2 at 1.50 m belowground was around 1000 ppm higher in the "degraded" site. Thus, we believe that subterranean ventilation of this vadose zone CO2, observed at both sites, largely drives the differences in C dynamics between them. Overall, the 12 site-years of data allow direct exploration of the roles of climate and land degradation in the biological and non-biological processes that ultimately control the C sequestration capacity of semiarid ecosystems.

Baseline Assessment of Net Calcium Carbonate Accretion Rates on U.S. Pacific Reefs.

PubMed

Vargas-Ángel, Bernardo; Richards, Cristi L; Vroom, Peter S; Price, Nichole N; Schils, Tom; Young, Charles W; Smith, Jennifer; Johnson, Maggie D; Brainard, Russell E

2015-01-01

This paper presents a comprehensive quantitative baseline assessment of in situ net calcium carbonate accretion rates (g CaCO3 cm(-2) yr(-1)) of early successional recruitment communities on Calcification Accretion Unit (CAU) plates deployed on coral reefs at 78 discrete sites, across 11 islands in the central and south Pacific Oceans. Accretion rates varied substantially within and between islands, reef zones, levels of wave exposure, and island geomorphology. For forereef sites, mean accretion rates were the highest at Rose Atoll, Jarvis, and Swains Islands, and the lowest at Johnston Atoll and Tutuila. A comparison between reef zones showed higher accretion rates on forereefs compared to lagoon sites; mean accretion rates were also higher on windward than leeward sites but only for a subset of islands. High levels of spatial variability in net carbonate accretion rates reported herein draw attention to the heterogeneity of the community assemblages. Percent cover of key early successional taxa on CAU plates did not reflect that of the mature communities present on surrounding benthos, possibly due to the short deployment period (2 years) of the experimental units. Yet, net CaCO3 accretion rates were positively correlated with crustose coralline algae (CCA) percent cover on the surrounding benthos and on the CAU plates, which on average represented >70% of the accreted material. For foreeefs and lagoon sites combined CaCO3 accretion rates were statistically correlated with total alkalinity and Chlorophyll-a; a GAM analysis indicated that SiOH and Halimeda were the best predictor variables of accretion rates on lagoon sites, and total alkalinity and Chlorophyll-a for forereef sites, demonstrating the utility of CAUs as a tool to monitor changes in reef accretion rates as they relate to ocean acidification. This study underscores the pivotal role CCA play as a key benthic component and supporting actively calcifying reefs; high Mg-calcite exoskeletons makes CCA extremely susceptible changes in ocean water pH, emphasizing the far-reaching threat that ocean acidification poses to the ecological function and persistence of coral reefs worldwide.

Baseline Assessment of Net Calcium Carbonate Accretion Rates on U.S. Pacific Reefs

PubMed Central

Vargas-Ángel, Bernardo; Richards, Cristi L.; Vroom, Peter S.; Price, Nichole N.; Schils, Tom; Young, Charles W.; Smith, Jennifer; Johnson, Maggie D.; Brainard, Russell E.

2015-01-01

This paper presents a comprehensive quantitative baseline assessment of in situ net calcium carbonate accretion rates (g CaCO3 cm-2 yr-1) of early successional recruitment communities on Calcification Accretion Unit (CAU) plates deployed on coral reefs at 78 discrete sites, across 11 islands in the central and south Pacific Oceans. Accretion rates varied substantially within and between islands, reef zones, levels of wave exposure, and island geomorphology. For forereef sites, mean accretion rates were the highest at Rose Atoll, Jarvis, and Swains Islands, and the lowest at Johnston Atoll and Tutuila. A comparison between reef zones showed higher accretion rates on forereefs compared to lagoon sites; mean accretion rates were also higher on windward than leeward sites but only for a subset of islands. High levels of spatial variability in net carbonate accretion rates reported herein draw attention to the heterogeneity of the community assemblages. Percent cover of key early successional taxa on CAU plates did not reflect that of the mature communities present on surrounding benthos, possibly due to the short deployment period (2 years) of the experimental units. Yet, net CaCO3 accretion rates were positively correlated with crustose coralline algae (CCA) percent cover on the surrounding benthos and on the CAU plates, which on average represented >70% of the accreted material. For foreeefs and lagoon sites combined CaCO3 accretion rates were statistically correlated with total alkalinity and Chlorophyll-a; a GAM analysis indicated that SiOH and Halimeda were the best predictor variables of accretion rates on lagoon sites, and total alkalinity and Chlorophyll-a for forereef sites, demonstrating the utility of CAUs as a tool to monitor changes in reef accretion rates as they relate to ocean acidification. This study underscores the pivotal role CCA play as a key benthic component and supporting actively calcifying reefs; high Mg-calcite exoskeletons makes CCA extremely susceptible changes in ocean water pH, emphasizing the far-reaching threat that ocean acidification poses to the ecological function and persistence of coral reefs worldwide. PMID:26641885

Are post-fire silvicultural treatments a useful tool to fight the climate change threat in terms of plant diversity?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hedo de Santiago, Javier; Esteban Lucasr Borja, Manuel; de las Heras, Jorge

2016-04-01

Adaptative forest management demands a huge scientific knowledge about post-fire vegetation dynamics, taking into account the current context of global change. We hypothesized that management practices should be carry out taking into account the climate change effect, to obtain better results in the biodiversity maintenance across time. All of this with respect to diversity and species composition of the post-fire naturally regenerated Aleppo pine forests understory. The study was carried out in two post-fire naturally regenerated Aleppo pine forests in the Southeastern of the Iberian Peninsula, under contrasting climatic conditions: Yeste (Albacete) shows a dry climate and Calasparra (Murcia) shows a semiarid climate. Thinning as post-fire silvicultural treatment was carried out five years after the wildfire event, in the year 1999. An experiment of artificial drought was designed to evacuate 15% of the natural rainfall in both sites, Yeste and Calasparra, to simulate climate change. Taking into account all the variables (site, silvicultural treatment and artificial drought), alpha diversity indices including species richness, Shannon and Simpson diversity indices, and plant cover, were analyzed as a measure of vegetation abundance. The results showed that plant species were affected by thinning, whereas induced drought affected total cover and species, with lower values at Yeste. Significant site variation was also observed in soil properties, species richness and total plant cover, conversely to the plant species diversity indices. We conclude that the plant community shows different responses to a simulated environment of climate change depending on the experimental site.

Trends in the nutrient enrichment of U.S. rivers during the late 20th century and their relation to changes in probable stream trophic conditions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Alexander, R.B.; Smith, R.A.

2006-01-01

We estimated trends in concentrations of total phosphorus (TP) and total nitrogen (TN) and the related change in the probabilities of trophic conditions from 1975 to 1994 at 250 nationally representative riverine monitoring locations in the U.S. with drainage areas larger than about 1,000 km2. Statistically significant (p < 0.05) declines were detected in TP and TN concentrations at 44% and 37% of the monitoring sites, and significant increases were detected at 3% and 9% of the sites, respectively. We used a statistical model to assess changes in the probable trophic-state classification of the sites after adjusting for climate-related variability in nutrient concentrations. The probabilistic assessment accounts for current knowledge of the trophic response of streams to nutrient enrichment, based on a recently proposed definition of "eutrophic," "mesotrophic," and "oligotrophic" conditions in relation to total nutrient concentrations. Based on these trophic definitions, we found that the trophic state improved at 25% of the monitoring sites and worsened at fewer than 5% of the sites; about 70% of the sites were unchanged. Improvements in trophic-state related to declines in TP were more common in predominantly forested and shrub-grassland watersheds, whereas the trophic state of predominantly agricultural sites was unchanged. Despite the declines in TP concentrations at many sites, about 50% of all monitoring sites, and more than 60% of the sites in predominantly agricultural and urban watersheds, were classified as eutrophic in 1994 based on TP concentrations. Contemporaneous reductions in major nutrient sources to streams, related to wastewater treatment upgrades, phosphate detergent bans, and declines in some agricultural sources, may have contributed to the declines in riverine nutrient concentrations and associated improvements in trophic conditions. ?? 2006, by the American Society of Limnology and Oceanography, Inc.

Estimating the effects of land use at different scales on high ecological status in Irish rivers.

PubMed

Roberts, William M; Fealy, Reamonn M; Doody, Donnacha G; Jordan, Phil; Daly, Karen

2016-12-01

High ecological status at river sites is an indicator of minimal disturbance from anthropogenic activities and the presence of ecologically important species and communities. However, a lack of clarity on what factors cause sites to lose high ecological status is limiting the ability to maintain the quality of these sites. Examination of ecological status records at 508 high status river sites throughout the Republic of Ireland revealed that 337 had fallen below high status at some point between 2001 and 2012 due to changes in invertebrate communities. A geographical information system was used to characterise land use and environmental variables in the catchment, riparian and reach areas upstream of the sites. The relationships between these variables at the three spatial scales and whether or not river sites had maintained high ecological status were then estimated by multiple logistic regression and propensity modelling. The results indicated that grassland at either catchment or riparian scales had a greater negative impact on high ecological status than at the reach scale. This effect appeared to be strongest for upland, steeply sloping rivers that are subject to high rainfall, possibly due to the presence of sensitive biota and/or a greater potential for erosion. These results highlighted the need for better management of grassland upstream of the high status sites, with a focus on river alterations and critical source areas of nutrients, sediments and pesticides that are hydrologically connected to the river. Sustainable management practices and land use planning in those areas will need to be considered carefully if the aim of maintaining high ecological status at river sites is to be achieved. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An environmental scan of academic pediatric emergency medicine at Canadian medical schools: Identifying variability across Canada.

PubMed

Artz, Jennifer D; Meckler, Garth; Argintaru, Niran; Lim, Roderick; Stiell, Ian G

2018-01-28

To complement our environmental scan of academic emergency medicine departments, we conducted a similar environmental scan of the academic pediatric emergency medicine programs offered by the Canadian medical schools. We developed an 88-question form, which was distributed to pediatric academic leaders at each medical school. The responses were validated via email to ensure that the questions were answered completely and consistently. Fourteen of the 17 Canadian medical schools have some type of pediatric emergency medicine academic program. None of the pediatric emergency medicine units have full departmental status, while nine are divisions, two are sections, and three have no status. Canadian academic pediatric emergency medicine is practised at 13 major teaching hospitals and one specialized pediatric emergency department. There are 394 pediatric emergency medicine faculty members, including 13 full professors and 64 associate professors. Eight sites regularly take pediatric undergraduate clinical clerks, and all 14 provide resident education. Fellowship training is offered at 10 sites, with five offering advanced pediatric emergency medicine fellowship training. Half of the sites have at least one physician with a Master's degree in education, totalling 18 faculty members across Canada. There are 31 clinical researchers with salary support at nine universities. Eleven sites have published peer-reviewed papers (n=423) in the past five years, ranging from two to 102 per site. Annual academic budgets range from $10,000 to $2,607,515. This comprehensive review of academic activities in pediatric emergency medicine across Canada identifies the variability across the country, including the recognition of sites above and below the national average, which may prompt change at individual sites. Sharing these academic practices may inspire sites to provide more support to teachers, educators, and researchers.

Carbon Dioxide and Methane Flux Related to Forest Type and Managed and Unmanaged Conditions in the Great Dismal Swamp, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gutenberg, L. W.; Krauss, K.; Qu, J. J.; Hogan, D. M.; Zhu, Z.; Xu, C.

2017-12-01

The Great Dismal Swamp in Virginia and North Carolina, USA, has been greatly impacted by human use and management for the last few hundred years through logging, ditching, and draining. Today, the once dominant cedar, cypress and pocosin forest types are fragmented due to logging and environmental change. Maple-gum forest has taken over more than half the remaining area of the swamp ecosystem, which is now a National Wildlife Refuge and State Park. The peat soils and biomass store a vast quantity of carbon compared with the size of the refuge, but this store is threatened by fire and drying. This study looks at three of the main forest types in the GDS— maple-sweet gum, tall pine pocosin, and Atlantic white cedar— in terms of their carbon dioxide and methane soil flux. Using static chambers to sample soil gas flux in locally representative sites, we found that cedar sites showed a higher carbon dioxide flux rate as the soil temperature increased than maple sites, and the rate of carbon dioxide flux decreased as soil moisture increased faster in cedar sites than in maple sites. Methane flux increased as temperature increased for pocosin, but decreased with temperature for cedar and maple. All of the methane fluxes increased as soil moisture increased. Cedar average carbon dioxide flux was statistically significantly different from both maple and pocosin. These results show that soil carbon gas flux depends on soil moisture and temperature, which are factors that are changing due to human actions, as well as on forest type, which is also the result of human activity. Some of these variables may be adjustable by the managers of the land. Variables other than forest type, temperature and soil moisture/inundation may also play a role in influencing soil flux, such as stand age, tree height, composition of the peat and nutrient availability, and source of moisture as some sites are more influenced by groundwater from ditches and some more by rainfall depending on the direction of groundwater lateral flow. Increasing temperatures and changes in precipitation and soil moisture may impact the carbon storage and health of this ecosystem, although it is already strongly influenced by anthropogenic activities such as past logging and water level management.

Structural basis of DNA bending and oriented heterodimer binding by the basic leucine zipper domains of Fos and Jun.

PubMed

Leonard, D A; Rajaram, N; Kerppola, T K

1997-05-13

Interactions among transcription factors that bind to separate sequence elements require bending of the intervening DNA and juxtaposition of interacting molecular surfaces in an appropriate orientation. Here, we examine the effects of single amino acid substitutions adjacent to the basic regions of Fos and Jun as well as changes in sequences flanking the AP-1 site on DNA bending. Substitution of charged amino acid residues at positions adjacent to the basic DNA-binding domains of Fos and Jun altered DNA bending. The change in DNA bending was directly proportional to the change in net charge for all heterodimeric combinations between these proteins. Fos and Jun induced distinct DNA bends at different binding sites. Exchange of a single base pair outside of the region contacted in the x-ray crystal structure altered DNA bending. Substitution of base pairs flanking the AP-1 site had converse effects on the opposite directions of DNA bending induced by homodimers and heterodimers. These results suggest that Fos and Jun induce DNA bending in part through electrostatic interactions between amino acid residues adjacent to the basic region and base pairs flanking the AP-1 site. DNA bending by Fos and Jun at inverted binding sites indicated that heterodimers bind to the AP-1 site in a preferred orientation. Mutation of a conserved arginine within the basic regions of Fos and transversion of the central C:G base pair in the AP-1 site to G:C had complementary effects on the orientation of heterodimer binding and DNA bending. The conformational variability of the Fos-Jun-AP-1 complex may contribute to its functional versatility at different promoters.

[Prediction of 137Cs behaviour in the soil-plant system in the territory of Semipalatinsk test site].

PubMed

Spiridonov, S I; Mukusheva, M K; Gontarenko, I A; Fesenko, S V; Baranov, S A

2005-01-01

A mathematical model of 137Cs behaviour in the soil-plant system is presented. The model has been parameterized for the area adjacent to the testing area Ground Zero of the Semipalatinsk Test Site. The model describes the main processes responsible for the changes in 137Cs content in the soil solution and, thereby, dynamics of the radionuclide uptake by vegetation. The results are taken from predictive and retrospective calculations that reflect the dynamics of 137Cs distribution by species in soil after nuclear explosions. The importance of factors governing 137Cs accumulation in plants within the STS area is assessed. The analysis of sensitivity of the output model variable to changes in its parameters revealed that the key soil properties significantly influence the results of prediction of 137Cs content in plants.

Identifying Indicators of State Change and Forecasting Future Vulnerability in Alaskan Boreal Ecosystems

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-08-01

ice have catastrophic effects on facilities, infrastructure, and military testing and training. Permafrost temperature , thickness, and geographic...treeline) and fire severity (~0 to ~100% SOL consumption ), they provide an excellent suite of sites to test and quantify the effects of fire severity...stages .........................59 Table 6.1. Variables included in explanatory matrix for black spruce dominance ............68 Table 6.2. Mixed effect

Identifying Indicators of State Change and Forecasting Future Vulnerability in Alaskan Boreal Ecosystems

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-08-01

catastrophic effects on facilities, infrastructure, and military testing and training. Permafrost temperature , thickness, and geographic continuity...and fire severity (~0 to ~100% SOL consumption ), they provide an excellent suite of sites to test and quantify the effects of fire severity on plant...59 Table 6.1. Variables included in explanatory matrix for black spruce dominance ............68 Table 6.2. Mixed effect model

Ecosystem responses to climate change at a Low Arctic and a High Arctic long-term research site

Treesearch

John E. Hobbie; Gaius R. Shaver; Edward B. Rastetter; Jessica E. Cherry; Scott J. Goetz; Kevin C. Guay; William A. Gould; George W. Kling

2017-01-01

Long-term measurements of ecological effects of warming are often not statistically significant because of annual variability or signal noise. These are reduced in indicators that filter or reduce the noise around the signal and allow effects of climate warming to emerge. In this way, certain indicators act as medium pass filters integrating the signal over years-to-...

Long-term leaf fall mass from three watersheds on the Fernow Experimental Forest, West Virginia

Treesearch

Mary Beth Adams

2008-01-01

Foliar biomass may serve as an indicator of site productivity, and spatial and temporal changes can help us understand effects of important variables affecting productivity. Leaf litterfall mass is one way to estimate foliar biomass, and has been measured on three watersheds on the Fernow Experimental Forest in West Virginia for 19 years. These watersheds all contain...

Soil Water Balance and Vegetation Dynamics in two Water-limited Mediterranean Ecosystem on Sardinia under past and future climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Corona, R.; Montaldo, N.; Albertson, J. D.

2016-12-01

Water limited conditions strongly impacts soil and vegetation dynamics in Mediterranean regions, which are commonly heterogeneous ecosystems, characterized by inter-annual rainfall variability, topography variability and contrasting plant functional types (PFTs) competing for water use. Historical human influences (e.g., deforestation, urbanization) further altered these ecosystems. Sardinia island is a representative region of Mediterranean ecosystems. It is low urbanized except some plan areas close to the main cities where main agricultural activities are concentrated. Two contrasting case study sites are within the Flumendosa river basin (1700 km2). The first site is a typical grassland on an alluvial plan valley (soil depth > 2m) while the second is a patchy mixture of Mediterranean vegetation species (mainly wild olive trees and C3 herbaceous) that grow in a soil bounded from below by a rocky layer of basalt, partially fractured (soil depth 15 - 40 cm). In both sites land-surface fluxes and CO2 fluxes are estimated by the eddy correlation technique while soil moisture was continuously estimated with water content reflectometers, and periodically leaf area index (LAI) was estimated. The following objectives are addressed:1) pointing out the dynamics of land surface fluxes, soil moisture, CO2 and vegetation cover for two contrasting water-limited ecosystems; 2) assess the impact of the soil depth and type on the CO2 and water balance dynamics; 3) evaluate the impact of past and future climate change scenarios on the two contrasting ecosystems. For reaching the objectives an ecohydrologic model that couples a vegetation dynamic model (VDM), and a 3-component (bare soil, grass and woody vegetation) land surface model (LSM) has been used. Historical meteorological data are available from 1922 and hydro-meteorological scenarios are then generated using a weather generator. The VDM-LSM model predict soil water balance and vegetation dynamics for the generated hydrometeorological scenarios in the two contrasting ecosystems. Results demonstrate that vegetation dynamics are influenced by the inter-annual variability of atmospheric forcing, with vegetation density changing significantly according to seasonal rainfall amount. At the same time the vegetation dynamics affect the soil water balance.

The CSAICLAWPS project: a multi-scalar, multi-data source approach to providing climate services for both modelling of climate change impacts on crop yields and development of community-level adaptive capacity for sustainable food security

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forsythe, N. D.; Fowler, H. J.

2017-12-01

The "Climate-smart agriculture implementation through community-focused pursuit of land and water productivity in South Asia" (CSAICLAWPS) project is a research initiative funded by the (UK) Royal Society through its Challenge Grants programme which is part of the broader UK Global Challenges Research Fund (GCRF). CSAICLAWPS has three objectives: a) development of "added-value" - bias assessed, statistically down-scaled - climate projections for selected case study sites across South Asia; b) investigation of crop failure modes under both present (observed) and future (projected) conditions; and c) facilitation of developing local adaptive capacity and resilience through stakeholder engagement. At AGU we will be presenting both next steps and progress to date toward these three objectives: [A] We have carried out bias assessments of a substantial multi-model RCM ensemble (MME) from the CORDEX South Asia (CORDEXdomain for case studies in three countries - Pakistan, India and Sri Lanka - and (stochastically) produced synthetic time-series for these sites from local observations using a Python-based implementation of the principles underlying the Climate Research Unit Weather Generator (CRU-WG) in order to enable probabilistic simulation of current crop yields. [B] We have characterised present response of local crop yields to climate variability in key case study sites using AquaCrop simulations parameterised based on input (agronomic practices, soil conditions, etc) from smallholder farmers. [C] We have implemented community-based hydro-climatological monitoring in several case study "revenue villages" (panchayats) in the Nainital District of Uttarakhand. The purpose of this is not only to increase availability of meteorological data, but also has the aspiration of, over time, leading to enhanced quantitative awareness of present climate variability and potential future conditions (as projected by RCMs). Next steps in our work will include: 1) future crop yield simulations driven by "perturbation" of synthetic time-series using "change factors from the CORDEX-SA MME; 2) stakeholder dialogues critically evaluating potential strategies at the grassroots (implementation) level to mitigate impacts of climate variability and change on crop yields.

Latitudinal discontinuity in thermal conditions along the nearshore of central-northern Chile.

PubMed

Tapia, Fabian J; Largier, John L; Castillo, Manuel; Wieters, Evie A; Navarrete, Sergio A

2014-01-01

Over the past decade, evidence of abrupt latitudinal changes in the dynamics, structure and genetic variability of intertidal and subtidal benthic communities along central-northern Chile has been found consistently at 30-32°S. Changes in the advective and thermal environment in nearshore waters have been inferred from ecological patterns, since analyses of in situ physical data have thus far been missing. Here we analyze a unique set of shoreline temperature data, gathered over 4-10 years at 15 sites between 28-35°S, and combine it with satellite-derived winds and sea surface temperatures to investigate the latitudinal transition in nearshore oceanographic conditions suggested by recent ecological studies. Our results show a marked transition in thermal conditions at 30-31°S, superimposed on a broad latitudinal trend, and small-scale structures associated with cape-and-bay topography. The seasonal cycle dominated temperature variability throughout the region, but its relative importance decreased abruptly south of 30-31°S, as variability at synoptic and intra-seasonal scales became more important. The response of shoreline temperatures to meridional wind stress also changed abruptly at the transition, leading to a sharp drop in the occurrence of low-temperature waters at northern sites, and a concurrent decrease in corticated algal biomass. Together, these results suggest a limitation of nitrate availability in nearshore waters north of the transition. The localized alongshore change results from the interaction of latitudinal trends (e.g., wind stress, surface warming, inertial period) with a major headland-bay system (Punta Lengua de Vaca at 30.25°S), which juxtaposes a southern stretch of coast characterized by upwelling with a northern stretch of coast characterized by warm surface waters and stratification. This transition likely generates a number of latitude-dependent controls on ecological processes in the nearshore that can explain species-specific effects, and add strength to the suggestion of an oceanography-driven, major spatial transition in coastal communities at 30-31°S.

Intra-Site Variability in the Still Bay Fauna at Blombos Cave: Implications for Explanatory Models of the Middle Stone Age Cultural and Technological Evolution

PubMed Central

Discamps, Emmanuel; Henshilwood, Christopher Stuart

2015-01-01

To explain cultural and technological innovations in the Middle Stone Age (MSA) of southern Africa, scholars invoke several factors. A major question in this research theme is whether MSA technocomplexes are adapted to a particular set of environmental conditions and subsistence strategies or, on the contrary, to a wide range of different foraging behaviours. While faunal studies provide key information for addressing these factors, most analyses do not assess intra-technocomplex variability of faunal exploitation (i.e. variability within MSA phases). In this study, we assess the spatial variability of the Still Bay fauna in one phase (M1) of the Blombos Cave sequence. Analyses of taxonomic composition, taphonomic alterations and combustion patterns reveal important faunal variability both across space (lateral variation in the post-depositional history of the deposits, spatial organisation of combustion features) and over time (fine-scale diachronic changes throughout a single phase). Our results show how grouping material prior to zooarchaeological interpretations (e.g. by layer or phase) can induce a loss of information. Finally, we discuss how multiple independent subdivisions of archaeological sequences can improve our understanding of both the timing of different changes (for example in technology, culture, subsistence, environment) and how they may be inter-related. PMID:26658195

Intra-Site Variability in the Still Bay Fauna at Blombos Cave: Implications for Explanatory Models of the Middle Stone Age Cultural and Technological Evolution.

PubMed

Discamps, Emmanuel; Henshilwood, Christopher Stuart

2015-01-01

To explain cultural and technological innovations in the Middle Stone Age (MSA) of southern Africa, scholars invoke several factors. A major question in this research theme is whether MSA technocomplexes are adapted to a particular set of environmental conditions and subsistence strategies or, on the contrary, to a wide range of different foraging behaviours. While faunal studies provide key information for addressing these factors, most analyses do not assess intra-technocomplex variability of faunal exploitation (i.e. variability within MSA phases). In this study, we assess the spatial variability of the Still Bay fauna in one phase (M1) of the Blombos Cave sequence. Analyses of taxonomic composition, taphonomic alterations and combustion patterns reveal important faunal variability both across space (lateral variation in the post-depositional history of the deposits, spatial organisation of combustion features) and over time (fine-scale diachronic changes throughout a single phase). Our results show how grouping material prior to zooarchaeological interpretations (e.g. by layer or phase) can induce a loss of information. Finally, we discuss how multiple independent subdivisions of archaeological sequences can improve our understanding of both the timing of different changes (for example in technology, culture, subsistence, environment) and how they may be inter-related.

Determinants of Shallow Groundwater As Variability in Bangladesh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Radloff, K. A.; Zheng, Y.; Stute, M.; Rahman, M.; Mihajlov, I.; Siu, H.; Huq, M.; Choudhury, I.; Ahmed, K.; van Geen, A.

2010-12-01

Manually operated tube wells that tap into shallow aquifers remain a critical source of untreated drinking water in south Asia and an estimated 37 million people are still exposed to elevated levels of As in Bangladesh(1). This field effort sought to address two questions. What mechanisms control the partitioning of As between groundwater and sediment? How does groundwater transport affect the spatial variability of dissolved As? Understanding the source of groundwater variability is essential for understanding how [As] will change with time, especially as Bangladesh and its water demands develop. Arsenic mobility and transport within the shallow aquifer was investigated at a 0.5 km2 site where [As] increases from <5 to 600 μg/L over 300 m as the aquifer becomes increasingly reducing. Aquifer recharge occurs in the raised, sandy village, where low [As] and elevated [SO4] are found. Until a few years ago, the net groundwater flow extended from the village, beneath a thickening silty layer covered by agricultural fields, towards a small stream. The sediments, however, were a homogenous, highly reduced sand throughout the site. Arsenic adsorption along this transect was investigated by two different approaches. Despite the geochemical gradients along the transect, adsorption of As under anaerobic conditions measured by spiking freshly collected sediment was remarkably uniform: Kd = 1.5 ± 0.5 L/kg, at 14 of 15 locations. Push- pull tests were used to alter groundwater [As] surrounding a well, without disturbing the sediment. The aquifer responded to the imposed dis-equilibrium by either adsorbing or desorbing As within a few days. These results provide further evidence that groundwater [As] is controlled by As sorption reactions with the sediment that reach equilibrium rapidly compared to the time scale of groundwater flow. A simple reactive-transport model for the site based on the measured partitioning coefficient, Kd, however, supports the notion that the [As] gradient observed reflects the gradual removal of As by groundwater flow over hundreds to thousands of years. The onset of irrigation and industrial pumping at this site has induced a reversal in flow, consequently groundwater now moves from high [As] into low [As] areas. This change could result in rising [As] to levels >50 μg/L in the village within the next few decades. The rapid economic development of Bangladesh could induce similar changes in groundwater flow, and thus As concentrations, elsewhere. This suggests that periodic monitoring of shallow wells low in As within regions of where the As content of groundwater is variable is particularly important. The size of the pool of As adsorbed on the sediment also indicates that current attempts to flush Bangladeshi aquifers “clean” through increased pumping will likely be ineffective. 1. BBS/UNICEF. Bangladesh: Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey, 2009. (Dhaka, Bangladesh, 2009).

When vegetation change alters ecosystem water availability.

PubMed

Scott, Russell L; Huxman, Travis E; Barron-Gafford, Greg A; Darrel Jenerette, G; Young, Jessica M; Hamerlynck, Erik P

2014-07-01

The combined effects of vegetation and climate change on biosphere-atmosphere water vapor (H2 O) and carbon dioxide (CO2 ) exchanges are expected to vary depending, in part, on how biotic activity is controlled by and alters water availability. This is particularly important when a change in ecosystem composition alters the fractional covers of bare soil, grass, and woody plants so as to influence the accessibility of shallower vs. deeper soil water pools. To study this, we compared 5 years of eddy covariance measurements of H2 O and CO2 fluxes over a riparian grassland, shrubland, and woodland. In comparison with the surrounding upland region, groundwater access at the riparian sites increased net carbon uptake (NEP) and evapotranspiration (ET), which were sustained over more of the year. Among the sites, the grassland used less of the stable groundwater resource, and increasing woody plant density decoupled NEP and ET from incident precipitation (P), resulting in greater exchange rates that were less variable year to year. Despite similar gross patterns, how groundwater accessibility affected NEP was more complex than ET. The grassland had higher respiration (Reco ) costs. Thus, while it had similar ET and gross carbon uptake (GEP) to the shrubland, grassland NEP was substantially less. Also, grassland carbon fluxes were more variable due to occasional flooding at the site, which both stimulated and inhibited NEP depending upon phenology. Woodland NEP was large, but surprisingly similar to the less mature, sparse shrubland, even while having much greater GEP. Woodland Reco was greater than the shrubland and responded strongly and positively to P, which resulted in a surprising negative NEP response to P. This is likely due to the large accumulation of carbon aboveground and in the surface soil. These long-term observations support the strong role that water accessibility can play when determining the consequences of ecosystem vegetation change. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

NEON: High Frequency Monitoring Network for Watershed-Scale Processes and Aquatic Ecology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vance, J. M.; Fitzgerald, M.; Parker, S. M.; Roehm, C. L.; Goodman, K. J.; Bohall, C.; Utz, R.

2014-12-01

Networked high frequency hydrologic and water quality measurements needed to investigate physical and biogeochemical processes at the watershed scale and create robust models are limited and lacking standardization. Determining the drivers and mechanisms of ecological changes in aquatic systems in response to natural and anthropogenic pressures is challenging due to the large amounts of terrestrial, aquatic, atmospheric, biological, chemical, and physical data it requires at varied spatiotemporal scales. The National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) is a continental-scale infrastructure project designed to provide data to address the impacts of climate change, land-use, and invasive species on ecosystem structure and function. Using a combination of standardized continuous in situ measurements and observational sampling, the NEON Aquatic array will produce over 200 data products across its spatially-distributed field sites for 30 years to facilitate spatiotemporal analysis of the drivers of ecosystem change. Three NEON sites in Alabama were chosen to address linkages between watershed-scale processes and ecosystem changes along an eco-hydrological gradient within the Tombigbee River Basin. The NEON Aquatic design, once deployed, will include continuous measurements of surface water physical, chemical, and biological parameters, groundwater level, temperature and conductivity and local meteorology. Observational sampling will include bathymetry, water chemistry and isotopes, and a suite of organismal sampling from microbes to macroinvertebrates to vertebrates. NEON deployed a buoy to measure the temperature profile of the Black Warrior River from July - November, 2013 to determine the spatiotemporal variability across the water column from a daily to seasonal scale. In July 2014 a series of water quality profiles were performed to assess the contribution of physical and biogeochemical drivers over a diurnal cycle. Additional river transects were performed across our site reach to capture the spatial variability of surface water parameters. Our preliminary data show differing response times to precipitation events and diurnal processes informing our infrastructure designs and sampling protocols aimed at providing data to address the eco-hydrological gradient.

Understanding Regional Effects on Climate Change and Multidisciplinary Approarch for Coping Strategies - Case Study at Rural Village in Sub-Saharan Africa -

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoshimura, M.; Yamashita, M.

2018-04-01

This paper describes on understanding the regional effects on global climate change and subsistence farmers' coping strategies through our field investigation and multidimensional data analysis from the resilience point of view. The major research question of this study is to understand what actions villagers took as the coping strategy against the heavy rainfall shock caused by climate change. Our research interest is how geospatial information technique can contribute to this research question. The study area is located in Sinazongwe district, Southern province of Zambia. As for the field investigation, we set the study sites A, B and C where are located in the lower terrace, middle escarpment and upper terrace, respectively. In the rainy season of 2007/2008, our study site had a heavy rainfall and many crop fields were damaged. In this crop year, the annual rainfalls in site A and C were 1442 mm/year and 1332 mm/year respectively. This is about two times different with the long term average of rainfall 694.9 mm/year in Sinazongwe district. It is confirmed that approximately 20 % of crop fields were damaged by heavy rainfall through our field investigation. It was so severe negative consequences for all of villages because about 80 % of whole damaged crop fields were maize fields. Maize is staple food in this region. Here, we have analysed and discussed how villagers cope from the serious damage of crops. The maize harvest varies every year depending on rainfall and topographic position. If a farmer possesses maize fields at various topographic positions, they can avoid severe negative consequences of climate variability such as drought or heavy rainfall. However, not all farmers have access to fields at various topographic positions. It is important to know where each household's characteristics when we consider their strategy of livelihood for climate variabilities. Through this study, we confirmed the way to strengthen resilience of subsistence farmers as follows: it is necessary to prepare variable crops and emergency food stock with not only diverse but also composite social institution. The resilient society seems to be the society with insurance such as adaptation ability against environmental shock caused by climate change. From the agricultural production point of view, both diversity and yield ability are also important.

Epigenetic response to environmental change: DNA methylation varies with invasion status.

PubMed

Schrey, Aaron W; Robbins, Travis R; Lee, Jacob; Dukes, David W; Ragsdale, Alexandria K; Thawley, Christopher J; Langkilde, Tracy

2016-04-01

Epigenetic mechanisms may be important for a native species' response to rapid environmental change. Red Imported Fire Ants ( Solenopsis invicta Santschi, 1916) were recently introduced to areas occupied by the Eastern Fence Lizard ( Sceloporus undulatus Bosc & Daudin, 1801). Behavioral, morphological and physiological phenotypes of the Eastern Fence Lizard have changed following invasion, creating a natural biological system to investigate environmentally induced epigenetic changes. We tested for variation in DNA methylation patterns in Eastern Fence Lizard populations associated with different histories of invasion by Red Imported Fire Ants. At methylation sensitive amplified fragment length polymorphism loci, we detected a higher diversity of methylation in Eastern Fence Lizard populations from Fire Ant uninvaded versus invaded sites, and uninvaded sites had higher methylation. Our results suggest that invasive species may alter methylation frequencies and the pattern of methylation among native individuals. While our data indicate a high level of intrinsic variability in DNA methylation, DNA methylation at some genomic loci may underlie observed phenotypic changes in Eastern Fence Lizard populations in response to invasion of Red Imported Fire Ants. This process may be important in facilitating adaptation of native species to novel pressures imposed by a rapidly changing environment.

[Study on ITS sequences of Aconitum vilmorinianum and its medicinal adulterant].

PubMed

Zhang, Xiao-nan; Du, Chun-hua; Fu, De-huan; Gao, Li; Zhou, Pei-jun; Wang, Li

2012-09-01

To analyze and compare the ITS sequences of Aconitum vilmorinianum and its medicinal adulterant Aconitum austroyunnanense. Total genomic DNA were extracted from sample materials by improved CTAB method, ITS sequences of samples were amplified using PCR systems, directly sequenced and analyzed using software DNAStar, ClustalX1.81 and MEGA 4.0. 299 consistent sites, 19 variable sites and 13 informative sites were found in ITS1 sequences, 162 consistent sites, 2 variable sites and 1 informative sites were found in 5.8S sequences, 217 consistent sites, 3 variable sites and 1 informative site were found in ITS2 sequences. Base transition and transversion was not found only in 5.8S sequences, 2 sites transition and 1 site transversion were found in ITS1 sequences, only 1 site transversion was found in ITS2 sequences comparting the ITS sequences data matrix. By analyzing the ITS sequences data matrix from 2 population of Aconitum vilmorinianum and 3 population of Aconitum austroyunnanense, we found a stable informative site at the 596th base in ITS2 sequences, in all the samples of Aconitum vilmorinianum the base was C, and in all the samples of Aconitum austroyunnanense the base was A. Aconitum vilmorinianum and Aconitum austroyunnanense can be identified by their characters of ITS sequences, and the variable sites in ITS1 sequences are more than in ITS2 sequences.

Modelling study of soil C, N and pH response to air pollution and climate change using European LTER site observations.

PubMed

Holmberg, Maria; Aherne, Julian; Austnes, Kari; Beloica, Jelena; De Marco, Alessandra; Dirnböck, Thomas; Fornasier, Maria Francesca; Goergen, Klaus; Futter, Martyn; Lindroos, Antti-Jussi; Krám, Pavel; Neirynck, Johan; Nieminen, Tiina Maileena; Pecka, Tomasz; Posch, Maximilian; Pröll, Gisela; Rowe, Ed C; Scheuschner, Thomas; Schlutow, Angela; Valinia, Salar; Forsius, Martin

2018-05-31

Current climate warming is expected to continue in coming decades, whereas high N deposition may stabilize, in contrast to the clear decrease in S deposition. These pressures have distinctive regional patterns and their resulting impact on soil conditions is modified by local site characteristics. We have applied the VSD+ soil dynamic model to study impacts of deposition and climate change on soil properties, using MetHyd and GrowUp as pre-processors to provide input to VSD+. The single-layer soil model VSD+ accounts for processes of organic C and N turnover, as well as charge and mass balances of elements, cation exchange and base cation weathering. We calibrated VSD+ at 26 ecosystem study sites throughout Europe using observed conditions, and simulated key soil properties: soil solution pH (pH), soil base saturation (BS) and soil organic carbon and nitrogen ratio (C:N) under projected deposition of N and S, and climate warming until 2100. The sites are forested, located in the Mediterranean, forested alpine, Atlantic, continental and boreal regions. They represent the long-term ecological research (LTER) Europe network, including sites of the ICP Forests and ICP Integrated Monitoring (IM) programmes under the UNECE Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution (LRTAP), providing high quality long-term data on ecosystem response. Simulated future soil conditions improved under projected decrease in deposition and current climate conditions: higher pH, BS and C:N at 21, 16 and 12 of the sites, respectively. When climate change was included in the scenario analysis, the variability of the results increased. Climate warming resulted in higher simulated pH in most cases, and higher BS and C:N in roughly half of the cases. Especially the increase in C:N was more marked with climate warming. The study illustrates the value of LTER sites for applying models to predict soil responses to multiple environmental changes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Scale-dependent spatial variability in peatland lead pollution in the southern Pennines, UK.

PubMed

Rothwell, James J; Evans, Martin G; Lindsay, John B; Allott, Timothy E H

2007-01-01

Increasingly, within-site and regional comparisons of peatland lead pollution have been undertaken using the inventory approach. The peatlands of the Peak District, southern Pennines, UK, have received significant atmospheric inputs of lead over the last few hundred years. A multi-core study at three peatland sites in the Peak District demonstrates significant within-site spatial variability in industrial lead pollution. Stochastic simulations reveal that 15 peat cores are required to calculate reliable lead inventories at the within-site and within-region scale for this highly polluted area of the southern Pennines. Within-site variability in lead pollution is dominant at the within-region scale. The study demonstrates that significant errors may be associated with peatland lead inventories at sites where only a single peat core has been used to calculate an inventory. Meaningful comparisons of lead inventories at the regional or global scale can only be made if the within-site variability of lead pollution has been quantified reliably.

A case study of alternative site response explanatory variables in Parkfield, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thompson, E.M.; Baise, L.G.; Kayen, R.E.; Morgan, E.C.; Kaklamanos, J.

2011-01-01

The combination of densely-spaced strong-motion stations in Parkfield, California, and spectral analysis of surface waves (SASW) profiles provides an ideal dataset for assessing the accuracy of different site response explanatory variables. We judge accuracy in terms of spatial coverage and correlation with observations. The performance of the alternative models is period-dependent, but generally we observe that: (1) where a profile is available, the square-root-of-impedance method outperforms VS30 (average S-wave velocity to 30 m depth), and (2) where a profile is unavailable, the topographic-slope method outperforms surficial geology. The fundamental site frequency is a valuable site response explanatory variable, though less valuable than VS30. However, given the expense and difficulty of obtaining reliable estimates of VS30 and the relative ease with which the fundamental site frequency can be computed, the fundamental site frequency may prove to be a valuable site response explanatory variable for many applications. ?? 2011 ASCE.

Increased river alkalinization in the Eastern U.S.

PubMed

Kaushal, Sujay S; Likens, Gene E; Utz, Ryan M; Pace, Michael L; Grese, Melissa; Yepsen, Metthea

2013-09-17

The interaction between human activities and watershed geology is accelerating long-term changes in the carbon cycle of rivers. We evaluated changes in bicarbonate alkalinity, a product of chemical weathering, and tested for long-term trends at 97 sites in the eastern United States draining over 260,000 km(2). We observed statistically significant increasing trends in alkalinity at 62 of the 97 sites, while remaining sites exhibited no significant decreasing trends. Over 50% of study sites also had statistically significant increasing trends in concentrations of calcium (another product of chemical weathering) where data were available. River alkalinization rates were significantly related to watershed carbonate lithology, acid deposition, and topography. These three variables explained ~40% of variation in river alkalinization rates. The strongest predictor of river alkalinization rates was carbonate lithology. The most rapid rates of river alkalinization occurred at sites with highest inputs of acid deposition and highest elevation. The rise of alkalinity in many rivers throughout the Eastern U.S. suggests human-accelerated chemical weathering, in addition to previously documented impacts of mining and land use. Increased river alkalinization has major environmental implications including impacts on water hardness and salinization of drinking water, alterations of air-water exchange of CO2, coastal ocean acidification, and the influence of bicarbonate availability on primary production.

Micro-scale environmental variation amplifies physiological variation among individual mussels.

PubMed

Jimenez, Ana Gabriela; Jayawardene, Sarah; Alves, Shaina; Dallmer, Jeremiah; Dowd, W Wesley

2015-12-07

The contributions of temporal and spatial environmental variation to physiological variation remain poorly resolved. Rocky intertidal zone populations are subjected to thermal variation over the tidal cycle, superimposed with micro-scale variation in individuals' body temperatures. Using the sea mussel (Mytilus californianus), we assessed the consequences of this micro-scale environmental variation for physiological variation among individuals, first by examining the latter in field-acclimatized animals, second by abolishing micro-scale environmental variation via common garden acclimation, and third by restoring this variation using a reciprocal outplant approach. Common garden acclimation reduced the magnitude of variation in tissue-level antioxidant capacities by approximately 30% among mussels from a wave-protected (warm) site, but it had no effect on antioxidant variation among mussels from a wave-exposed (cool) site. The field-acclimatized level of antioxidant variation was restored only when protected-site mussels were outplanted to a high, thermally stressful site. Variation in organismal oxygen consumption rates reflected antioxidant patterns, decreasing dramatically among protected-site mussels after common gardening. These results suggest a highly plastic relationship between individuals' genotypes and their physiological phenotypes that depends on recent environmental experience. Corresponding context-dependent changes in the physiological mean-variance relationships within populations complicate prediction of responses to shifts in environmental variability that are anticipated with global change. © 2015 The Author(s).

Roosting behavior of premigratory Dunlins (Calidris alpina)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Handel, Colleen M.; Gill, Robert E.

1992-01-01

We studied roosting behavior of Dunlins (Calidris alpina) during late summer along the coast of the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska, in relation to tidal cycle, time of day, time of season, and occurrence of predators. Within Angyoyaravak Bay, peak populations of 70,000-100,000 Dunlins occur each year. The major diurnal roost sites were adjacent to intertidal feeding areas, provided an unobstructed view of predators, and were close to shallow waters used for bathing. At one site studied intensively, roosting flocks formed at high water consistently during the day but rarely at night. On about 75% of the days, Dunlins also came to the roost at dawn and dusk when the tide was low. The size of the roosting flock, the length of time birds spent at the roost site, and behavior at the roost site were highly variable throughout the season and significantly affected by both tide level and time of day. Roosting behavior changed significantly between early and late August, as Dunlins underwent heavy wing and body molt, and began premigratory fattening. The reaction of Dunlins to potential predators, the formation of roosting flocks in response to light cues, and seasonal changes in social behavior at the roost site suggested that communal roosting behavior may be related not only to the risk of predation but also to behavior during migration.

Efficient mapping of transgene integration sites and local structural changes in Cre transgenic mice using targeted locus amplification

PubMed Central

Cain-Hom, Carol; Splinter, Erik; van Min, Max; Simonis, Marieke; van de Heijning, Monique; Martinez, Maria; Asghari, Vida

2017-01-01

Abstract Cre/LoxP technology is widely used in the field of mouse genetics for spatial and/or temporal regulation of gene function. For Cre lines generated via pronuclear microinjection of a Cre transgene construct, the integration site is random and in most cases not known. Integration of a transgene can disrupt an endogenous gene, potentially interfering with interpretation of the phenotype. In addition, knowledge of where the transgene is integrated is important for planning of crosses between animals carrying a conditional allele and a given Cre allele in case the alleles are on the same chromosome. We have used targeted locus amplification (TLA) to efficiently map the transgene location in seven previously published Cre and CreERT2 transgenic lines. In all lines, transgene insertion was associated with structural changes of variable complexity, illustrating the importance of testing for rearrangements around the integration site. In all seven lines the exact integration site and breakpoint sequences were identified. Our methods, data and genotyping assays can be used as a resource for the mouse community and our results illustrate the power of the TLA method to not only efficiently map the integration site of any transgene, but also provide additional information regarding the transgene integration events. PMID:28053125

Interannual and spatial variability of maple syrup yield as related to climatic factors

PubMed Central

Houle, Daniel

2014-01-01

Sugar maple syrup production is an important economic activity for eastern Canada and the northeastern United States. Since annual variations in syrup yield have been related to climate, there are concerns about the impacts of climatic change on the industry in the upcoming decades. Although the temporal variability of syrup yield has been studied for specific sites on different time scales or for large regions, a model capable of accounting for both temporal and regional differences in yield is still lacking. In the present study, we studied the factors responsible for interregional and interannual variability in maple syrup yield over the 2001–2012 period, by combining the data from 8 Quebec regions (Canada) and 10 U.S. states. The resulting model explained 44.5% of the variability in yield. It includes the effect of climatic conditions that precede the sapflow season (variables from the previous growing season and winter), the effect of climatic conditions during the current sapflow season, and terms accounting for intercountry and temporal variability. Optimal conditions for maple syrup production appear to be spatially restricted by less favourable climate conditions occurring during the growing season in the north, and in the south, by the warmer winter and earlier spring conditions. This suggests that climate change may favor maple syrup production northwards, while southern regions are more likely to be negatively affected by adverse spring conditions. PMID:24949244

Modelling the sensitivity of river reaches to water abstraction: RAPHSA- a hydroecology tool for environmental managers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klaar, Megan; Laize, Cedric; Maddock, Ian; Acreman, Mike; Tanner, Kath; Peet, Sarah

2014-05-01

A key challenge for environmental managers is the determination of environmental flows which allow a maximum yield of water resources to be taken from surface and sub-surface sources, whilst ensuring sufficient water remains in the environment to support biota and habitats. It has long been known that sensitivity to changes in water levels resulting from river and groundwater abstractions varies between rivers. Whilst assessment at the catchment scale is ideal for determining broad pressures on water resources and ecosystems, assessment of the sensitivity of reaches to changes in flow has previously been done on a site-by-site basis, often with the application of detailed but time consuming techniques (e.g. PHABSIM). While this is appropriate for a limited number of sites, it is costly in terms of money and time resources and therefore not appropriate for application at a national level required by responsible licensing authorities. To address this need, the Environment Agency (England) is developing an operational tool to predict relationships between physical habitat and flow which may be applied by field staff to rapidly determine the sensitivity of physical habitat to flow alteration for use in water resource management planning. An initial model of river sensitivity to abstraction (defined as the change in physical habitat related to changes in river discharge) was developed using site characteristics and data from 66 individual PHABSIM surveys throughout the UK (Booker & Acreman, 2008). By applying a multivariate multiple linear regression analysis to the data to define habitat availability-flow curves using resource intensity as predictor variables, the model (known as RAPHSA- Rapid Assessment of Physical Habitat Sensitivity to Abstraction) is able to take a risk-based approach to modeled certainty. Site specific information gathered using desk-based, or a variable amount of field work can be used to predict the shape of the habitat- flow curves, with the uncertainty of estimates reducing as more information is collected. Creation of generalized physical habitat- discharge relationships by the model allows environmental managers to select the desired level of confidence in the modeled results, based on environmental risk and the level of resource investment available. Hence, resources can be better directed according to the level of certainty required at each site. This model is intended to provide managers with an alternative to the existing use of either expert opinion or resource intensive site- specific investigations in determining local environmental flows. Here, we outline the potential use of this tool by the Environment Agency in routine operational and investigation- specific scenarios using case studies to illustrate its use.

Assessment of restoration measures efficiency for soil contamination in Mediterranean Ecosystem. The case study of Guadiamar Green Corridor in the context of RECARE project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anaya-Romero, Maria; José Blanco-Velázquez, Francisco; Muñoz-Vallés, Sara

2017-04-01

Restoration of soil ecosystems contaminated by heavy metals requires their characterization and the assessment of measures for risk reduction. Particular soil traits and history define different levels of resilience, so soil contamination assessment needs to take into account a site-by-site approach, which considers both the particular environmental characteristics of soils and the human activities. Nevertheless, current approaches for soil contamination assessment developed as academy and market solutions continue to be rather qualitative, and they do not allow as far the selection of efficient remediation measures to solve soil contamination at the long-term and extensively over larger áreas. In this context, under the framework of RECARE (Preventing and Remediating degradation of Soils in Europe through Land Care) project, we are designing a Decision Support System (DSS) which automatically assess soil contamination values by heavy metals in the topsoil and evaluate the efficiency of soil remediation measures under scenarios of climate and land-use change. The DSS works by simulating the spatio-temporal efficiency of three widely applied remediation measures (compost, sugar beet lime and iron-rich clayey materials). Input variables are divided into: (I) climate variables (mainly precipitation and temperature), (II) site variables (elevation, slope and erodibility), (III) soil (heavy metal content, pH, sand/clay content, soil organic carbon and bulk density), (IV) land use and (V) remediation measures. The predictor variables are related to soil functions expressed by % of change of heavy metal content (Currently the DSS consider cadmium dynamics due to the worldwide distribution in agricultural system and toxicity impact on health and plants), soil carbon and erosion dynamics. The pilot study area is the Guadiamar valley (SW Spain) where the main threat is soil contamination, after a mine spill occurred on April 1998. Since that time, a huge soil databse of more than 30 Gbytes, has been produced by different stakeholders (administration, scientist and private sector), which covered the spatial-temporal evolution of soil contamination by specific soil remediation measures, so the affected area has become the "virtual lab" to develop and test the DSS. Further development of the DSS tool includes its validation/calibration in other European climate zones, such as Copsa Mica in Romania, and the inclusion of new input and output variables to improve the accurancy of results.

An overview of AmeriFlux data products and methods for data acquisition, processing, and publication

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pastorello, G.; Poindexter, C.; Agarwal, D.; Papale, D.; van Ingen, C.; Torn, M. S.

2014-12-01

The AmeriFlux network encompasses independently managed field sites measuring ecosystem carbon, water, and energy fluxes across the Americas. In close coordination with ICOS in Europe, a new set of fluxes data and metadata products is being produced and released at the FLUXNET level, including all AmeriFlux sites. This will enable continued releases of global standardized set of flux data products. In this release, new formats, structures, and ancillary information are being proposed and adopted. This presentation discusses these aspects, detailing current and future solutions. One of the major revisions was to the BADM (Biological, Ancillary, and Disturbance Metadata) protocols. The updates include structure and variable changes to address new developments in data collection related to flux towers and facilitate two-way data sharing. In particular, a new organization of templates is now in place, including changes in templates for biomass, disturbances, instrumentation, soils, and others. New variables and an extensive addition to the vocabularies used to describe BADM templates allow for a more flexible and comprehensible coverage of field sites and the data collection methods and results. Another extensive revision is in the data formats, levels, and versions for fluxes and micrometeorological data. A new selection and revision of data variables and an integrated new definition for data processing levels allow for a more intuitive and flexible notation for the variety of data products. For instance, all variables now include positional information that is tied to BADM instrumentation descriptions. This allows for a better characterization of spatial representativeness of data points, e.g., individual sensors or the tower footprint. Additionally, a new definition for data levels better characterizes the types of processing and transformations applied to the data across different dimensions (e.g., spatial representativeness of a data point, data quality checks applied, and differentiation between measured data and data from models that use process knowledge). We also present an expanded approach to versions of data and data processing software, with stable and immutable data releases, but also pre-release versions to allow evaluation and feedback prior to a stable release.

Multi-site study of diffusion metric variability: effects of site, vendor, field strength, and echo time on regions-of-interest and histogram-bin analyses.

PubMed

Helmer, K G; Chou, M-C; Preciado, R I; Gimi, B; Rollins, N K; Song, A; Turner, J; Mori, S

2016-02-27

It is now common for magnetic-resonance-imaging (MRI) based multi-site trials to include diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) as part of the protocol. It is also common for these sites to possess MR scanners of different manufacturers, different software and hardware, and different software licenses. These differences mean that scanners may not be able to acquire data with the same number of gradient amplitude values and number of available gradient directions. Variability can also occur in achievable b-values and minimum echo times. The challenge of a multi-site study then, is to create a common protocol by understanding and then minimizing the effects of scanner variability and identifying reliable and accurate diffusion metrics. This study describes the effect of site, scanner vendor, field strength, and TE on two diffusion metrics: the first moment of the diffusion tensor field (mean diffusivity, MD), and the fractional anisotropy (FA) using two common analyses (region-of-interest and mean-bin value of whole brain histograms). The goal of the study was to identify sources of variability in diffusion-sensitized imaging and their influence on commonly reported metrics. The results demonstrate that the site, vendor, field strength, and echo time all contribute to variability in FA and MD, though to different extent. We conclude that characterization of the variability of DTI metrics due to site, vendor, field strength, and echo time is a worthwhile step in the construction of multi-center trials.

Observational Evaluation of Simulated Land-Atmosphere Coupling on the U.S. Southern Great Plains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phillips, T. J.; Klein, S. A.

2014-12-01

In a recent study of observed features of land-atmosphere coupling (LAC) at the ARM Southern Great Plains (ARM SGP) site in northern Oklahoma (Phillips and Klein, 2014 Journal of Geophysical Research), we identified statistically significant interactions between 1997-2008 summertime daily averages of soil moisture (at 10 cm depth) and a number of surface atmospheric variables, such as surface evaporation, relative humidity, and temperature. Here we will report on an evaluation of similar features of LAC simulated by version 5 of the global Community Atmosphere Model (CAM5), coupled to its native CLM4 land model, and downscaled to the vicinity of the ARM SGP site. In these case studies, the CAM5 was initialized from a 6-hourly atmospheric reanalysis for each day of the years 2008 and 2009 (where the CLM4 land state was equilibrated to the atmospheric model state), thus permitting a close comparison of the modeled and observed summer daily average features of the LAC in these years. Correlation coefficients R and "sensitivity indices" I (a measure of the comparative change of an atmospheric variable for a one-standard-deviation change in soil moisture) provided quantitative measures of the respective coupling strengths. Such a comparison of observed versus modeled LAC is complicated by differences in atmospheric forcings of the land; for example, the CAM5's summertime precipitation is too scant, and thus the model's upper soil layer often is drier than observed. The modeled daily average covariations of soil moisture with lower atmospheric variables also display less coherence (lower R values), but sometimes greater "sensitivity" (higher I values) than are observed at the ARM SGP site. Since the observational estimate of LAC may itself be sensitive to soil moisture measurement biases, we also will report on a planned investigation of the dependence of LAC on several alternative choices of soil moisture data sets local to the ARM SGP site. AcknowledgmentsThis work was funded by the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science and was performed at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

Diurnal variations in metal concentrations in the Alamosa River and Wightman Fork, southwestern Colorado, 1995-97

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ortiz, Roderick F.; Stogner, Sr., Robert W.

2001-01-01

A comprehensive sampling network was implemented in the Alamosa River Basin from 1995 to 1997 to address data gaps identified as part of the ecological risk assessment of the Summitville Superfund site. Aluminum, copper, iron, and zinc were identified as the constituents of concern for the risk assessment. Water-quality samples were collected at six sites on the Alamosa River and Wightman Fork by automatic samplers. Several discrete (instantaneous) samples were collected over 24 hours at each site during periods of high diurnal variations in streamflow (May through September). The discrete samples were analyzed individually and duplicate samples were composited to produce a single sample that represented the daily-mean concentration. The diurnal variations in concentration with respect to the theoretical daily-mean concentration (maximum minus minimum divided by daily mean) are presented. Diurnal metal concentrations were highly variable in the Alamosa River and Wightman Fork. The concentration of a metal at a single site could change by several hundred percent during one diurnal cycle. The largest percent change in metal concentrations was observed for aluminum and iron. Zinc concentrations varied the least of the four metals. No discernible or predictable pattern was indicated in the timing of the daily mean, maximum, or minimum concentrations. The percentage of discrete sample concentrations that varied from the daily-mean concentration by thresholds of plus or minus 10, 25, and 50 percent was evaluated. Between 50 and 75 percent of discrete-sample concentrations varied from the daily-mean concentration by more than plus or minus 10 percent. The percentage of samples exceeding given thresholds generally was smaller during the summer period than the snowmelt period. Sampling strategies are critical to accurately define variability in constituent concentration, and conversely, understanding constituent variability is important in determining appropriate sampling strategies. During nonsteady-state periods, considerable errors in estimates of daily-mean concentration are possible if based on one discrete sample. Flow-weighting multiple discrete samples collected over a diurnal cycle provides a better estimate of daily-mean concentrations during nonsteady-state periods.

Changing sediment physical properties at the Agulhas Plateau (IODP Site U1475): indications for the long-term variability of deepwater circulation over the last 7 Ma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gruetzner, Jens; Lathika, Nambiyathodi; Jimenez Espejo, Francisco J.; Uenzelmann-Neben, Gabriele

2017-04-01

The gateway south of South Africa constitutes an integral inter-ocean link in the global thermohaline circulation (THC) since it allows the exchange of shallow- and deepwater masses between the Indian and the Atlantic. Thus understanding past variations of this current system is important for improving our knowledge of the global climate. The long-term changes in deepwater flow in the Atlantic-Indian gateway during the Cenozoic have been initially studied using reflection seismic profiles. But in many cases the seismic stratigraphy is poorly constrained and not further resolved within the time period from the late Miocene to present. In particular, there are limited Pliocene records that can be used to investigate the influence of climatic (e.g. Antartic ice volume) and tectonic (e.g. closure of the central American seaway) on the deep-water variability. Here we focus on the bottom water flow around the Agulhas Plateau, a location proximal to the entrance of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) to the Southern Ocean and South Indian Ocean. IODP Expedition 361 (SAFARI) Site U1475 was drilled in 2669 m water depth into a sediment drift that is deposited on the southwestern flank of Agulhas Plateau and comprises a complete stratigraphic section of the last 7 Ma. We present cleaned, edited, and spliced high-resolution data sets of sediment physical properties measured at Site U1475. Synthetic seismograms generated from the velocity and bulk density core scanning records allow a detailed correlation oft the drilling results with the Site survey seismic reflection profiles. Seismic reflectors at 3.75 and 3.87 s (two-way-traveltime) correspond to major increases in acoustic impedance at 110 and 216 meters below seafloor. Based on the preliminary shipboard biostratigraphic age model sediments at these depths have ages of 4.0 and 5.1 Ma, respectively. Furthermore spectral analyses of physical property records such as natural gamma radiation and colour reflectance reveal climate variability on orbital and suborbital timescales.

Holocene river history of the Danube: human-environment interactions on its islands in Hungary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viczián, István; Balogh, János; Kis, Éva; Szeberényi, József

2016-04-01

A change in the frequency and magnitude of floods is the main response of river systems to climatic change. Natural floods are highly sensitive to even modest changes of climate. The discharge and the characteristics of floods basically determine the floodplain evolution and the feasibility of human land use and inhabitation on the islands and floodplains. The study revealed that those small islands of large rivers which have the surface rising only some meters above the river are particularly suitable research objects of Holocene climate variability as they are exposed to floods, react sensitively to environmental changes and their evolution may be paralleled with human history. The research area covers the islands of the Danube along the river between Komárom and Paks in Hungary, which is about 250 km, includes more than 50 smaller or formerly existing islands and two extensive islands: the Szentendre Island and Csepel Island. Data gathered from 570 archaeological sites of those islands from Neolithic to Modern Ages were analysed and interpreted in accordance with climate history and floodplain evolution. Nevertheless, the study is not only about river and its environmental history but it demonstrates the role of river and climatic variability in the history of mankind. The environment of the floodplain, the river hydrology, the sedimentation, the formation of islands and the incision and aggradation of surrounding riverbeds, the frequency of devastating floods have significantly changed through the historical time periods, which is reflected in the number and locations of archaeological sites on the islands. Their occupation history reflects the changes in discharge, climate, geomorphology, floods and human impacts and indicates historical periods with low or high probability of inundation. The most favourable periods for an island's occupation concerning the flood risk of its surfaces - and consequently of the banks along the river - are the first parts of a stable, warmer and drier period after a humid period, which is usually linked with revolutionary development of cultures and societies. The Middle Neolithic, the Late Copper Age, the Early and Late Bronze Ages, the Late Iron Age and the first part of the Roman Period, the High Middle Age are among the favourable periods, while the periods in between are characterised by frequent floods, higher water level and unfavourable environmental conditions. Archaeological sites known on small islands are found exactly from the above mentioned periods. The aim of the study was to present the Holocene river history of the Danube, improve a climatic-geomorphological model and reveal the variability of fluvial dynamics and geomorphological processes primarily affected by climate changes.

Diversity and structure of Chironomidae communities in relation to water quality differences in the Swartkops River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Odume, O. N.; Muller, W. J.

The Swartkops River is an important freshwater ecosystem in South Africa. But owing to its location, it suffers varying degrees of human induced impacts which include industrial and domestic effluent discharges, deforestation as well as agricultural land use which have negatively impacted on the water quality. Diversity and community composition of aquatic insects are frequently used to assess environmental water quality status. Chironomids occupy extremely varied biotopes. Their extraordinary ecological range and environmental sensitivity make them particularly useful for assessing and interpreting changes in water quality of aquatic ecosystems. The community structure of chironomid larvae was investigated at four sites in the Swartkops River and effects of different chemical and physical variables on their distribution were explored. Chironomid larvae were collected using the South African Scoring System version 5 (SASS5) protocol. A total of 26 taxa from four sampling sites in the Swartkops River were identified. Margalef’s species richness index, equitability, Shannon and Simpson diversity indices were highest at site 1 (reference site). The downstream sites contained 6-20 taxa compared to the 25 taxa at site 1. Site 1 was characterised by the subfamilies Orthocladiinae, Tanypodinae and the tribe Tanytarsini while the impacted sites were characterised by Orthocladiinae and Chironomini. Chironomus spp., Dirotendipes sp., Kiefferulus sp. and Tanypus sp. seemed to be tolerant to pollution, occurring in high abundance at sites 2, 3 and 4. In contrast, Polypedilum sp., Tanytarsus sp., Orthocladius sp., Cricotopus spp. and Ablabesmyia sp. appeared to be more sensitive taxa, being less common at the impacted sites (sites 2, 3 and 4). Five days biochemical oxygen demand, dissolved oxygen, electrical conductivity, orthophosphate-phosphorus and total inorganic nitrogen were among the important variables that determine the observed chironomid community structure. Results revealed that the family Chironomidae, identified to species or genus, can be use to assess environmental water quality status in South African freshwater ecosystems.

Assessing Weather-Yield Relationships in Rice at Local Scale Using Data Mining Approaches

PubMed Central

Delerce, Sylvain; Dorado, Hugo; Grillon, Alexandre; Rebolledo, Maria Camila; Prager, Steven D.; Patiño, Victor Hugo; Garcés Varón, Gabriel; Jiménez, Daniel

2016-01-01

Seasonal and inter-annual climate variability have become important issues for farmers, and climate change has been shown to increase them. Simultaneously farmers and agricultural organizations are increasingly collecting observational data about in situ crop performance. Agriculture thus needs new tools to cope with changing environmental conditions and to take advantage of these data. Data mining techniques make it possible to extract embedded knowledge associated with farmer experiences from these large observational datasets in order to identify best practices for adapting to climate variability. We introduce new approaches through a case study on irrigated and rainfed rice in Colombia. Preexisting observational datasets of commercial harvest records were combined with in situ daily weather series. Using Conditional Inference Forest and clustering techniques, we assessed the relationships between climatic factors and crop yield variability at the local scale for specific cultivars and growth stages. The analysis showed clear relationships in the various location-cultivar combinations, with climatic factors explaining 6 to 46% of spatiotemporal variability in yield, and with crop responses to weather being non-linear and cultivar-specific. Climatic factors affected cultivars differently during each stage of development. For instance, one cultivar was affected by high nighttime temperatures in the reproductive stage but responded positively to accumulated solar radiation during the ripening stage. Another was affected by high nighttime temperatures during both the vegetative and reproductive stages. Clustering of the weather patterns corresponding to individual cropping events revealed different groups of weather patterns for irrigated and rainfed systems with contrasting yield levels. Best-suited cultivars were identified for some weather patterns, making weather-site-specific recommendations possible. This study illustrates the potential of data mining for adding value to existing observational data in agriculture by allowing embedded knowledge to be quickly leveraged. It generates site-specific information on cultivar response to climatic factors and supports on-farm management decisions for adaptation to climate variability. PMID:27560980

Evaluation of ozone hindcasts: optimal data sets to use, and results from simulations with the GMI model for 1990-2010.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Logan, J. A.; Megretskaia, I.; Liu, J.; Rodriguez, J. M.; Strahan, S. E.; Damon, M.; Steenrod, S. D.

2012-12-01

Simulations of atmospheric composition in the recent past (hindcasts) are a valuable tool for determining the causes of interannual variability (IAV) and trends in tropospheric ozone, including factors such as anthropogenic emissions, biomass burning, stratospheric input, and variability in meteorology. We will review the ozone data sets (balloon, satellite, and surface) that are the most reliable for evaluating hindcasts, and demonstrate their application with the GMI model. The GMI model is driven by the GEOS-5/MERRA reanalysis and includes both stratospheric and tropospheric chemistry. Preliminary analysis of a simulation for 1990-2010 using constant fossil fuel emissions is promising. The model reproduces the recent interannual variability (IAV) in ozone in the lowermost stratosphere seen in MLS and sonde data, as well as the IAV seen in sonde data in the lower stratosphere since 1995, and captures much of the IAV and short-term trends in surface ozone at remote sites, showing the influence of variability in dynamics. There was considerable IAV in ozone in the lowermost stratosphere in the Aura period, but almost none at European alpine sites in winter/spring, when ozone at 150 hPa has been shown to be correlated with that at 700 hPa in earlier years. The model matches the IAV in alpine ozone in Europe in July-September, including the high values in heat-waves, showing the role of variability in meteorology. A focus on IAV in each season is essential. The model matches IAV in MLS in the upper troposphere, TES tropical ozone, and the tropospheric ozone column (OMI/MLS) the best in tSropical regions controlled by ENSO related changes in dynamics. This study, combined with sensitivity simulations with changes to emissions, and simulations with passive tracers (see Abstract by Rodriguez et al. Session A76), lays the foundations for assessment of the mechanisms that have influenced tropospheric ozone in the past two decades.

Assessing Weather-Yield Relationships in Rice at Local Scale Using Data Mining Approaches.

PubMed

Delerce, Sylvain; Dorado, Hugo; Grillon, Alexandre; Rebolledo, Maria Camila; Prager, Steven D; Patiño, Victor Hugo; Garcés Varón, Gabriel; Jiménez, Daniel

2016-01-01

Seasonal and inter-annual climate variability have become important issues for farmers, and climate change has been shown to increase them. Simultaneously farmers and agricultural organizations are increasingly collecting observational data about in situ crop performance. Agriculture thus needs new tools to cope with changing environmental conditions and to take advantage of these data. Data mining techniques make it possible to extract embedded knowledge associated with farmer experiences from these large observational datasets in order to identify best practices for adapting to climate variability. We introduce new approaches through a case study on irrigated and rainfed rice in Colombia. Preexisting observational datasets of commercial harvest records were combined with in situ daily weather series. Using Conditional Inference Forest and clustering techniques, we assessed the relationships between climatic factors and crop yield variability at the local scale for specific cultivars and growth stages. The analysis showed clear relationships in the various location-cultivar combinations, with climatic factors explaining 6 to 46% of spatiotemporal variability in yield, and with crop responses to weather being non-linear and cultivar-specific. Climatic factors affected cultivars differently during each stage of development. For instance, one cultivar was affected by high nighttime temperatures in the reproductive stage but responded positively to accumulated solar radiation during the ripening stage. Another was affected by high nighttime temperatures during both the vegetative and reproductive stages. Clustering of the weather patterns corresponding to individual cropping events revealed different groups of weather patterns for irrigated and rainfed systems with contrasting yield levels. Best-suited cultivars were identified for some weather patterns, making weather-site-specific recommendations possible. This study illustrates the potential of data mining for adding value to existing observational data in agriculture by allowing embedded knowledge to be quickly leveraged. It generates site-specific information on cultivar response to climatic factors and supports on-farm management decisions for adaptation to climate variability.

Soybean yield in relation to distance from the Itaipu reservoir

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Faria, Rogério Teixeira; Junior, Ruy Casão; Werner, Simone Silmara; Junior, Luiz Antônio Zanão; Hoogenboom, Gerrit

2016-07-01

Crops close to small water bodies may exhibit changes in yield if the water mass causes significant changes in the microclimate of areas near the reservoir shoreline. The scientific literature describes this effect as occurring gradually, with higher intensity in the sites near the shoreline and decreasing intensity with distance from the reservoir. Experiments with two soybean cultivars were conducted during four crop seasons to evaluate soybean yield in relation to distance from the Itaipu reservoir and determine the effect of air temperature and water availability on soybean crop yield. Fifteen experimental sites were distributed in three transects perpendicular to the Itaipu reservoir, covering an area at approximately 10 km from the shoreline. The yield gradient between the site closest to the reservoir and the sites farther away in each transect did not show a consistent trend, but varied as a function of distance, crop season, and cultivar. This finding indicates that the Itaipu reservoir does not affect the yield of soybean plants grown within approximately 10 km from the shoreline. In addition, the variation in yield among the experimental sites was not attributed to thermal conditions because the temperature was similar within transects. However, the crop water availability was responsible for higher differences in yield among the neighboring experimental sites related to water stress caused by spatial variability in rainfall, especially during the soybean reproductive period in January and February.

Bioimpedance for the spot measurement of tissue density

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dylke, E. S.; Ward, L. C.; Stannard, C.; Leigh, A.; Kilbreath, S. L.

2013-04-01

Long-standing lymphoedema is characterised by tissues changes which are currently not detectable using bioimpedance spectroscopy. It has been suggested that a combination of bipolar and tetrapolar measurements may be used to detect these tissues changes for a single site in the transverse direction. This was technique was trialled in a group of control participants with no history of lymphoedema or recent upper limb trauma. Repeated spot measurements were done without removal of electrodes to determine biological variability as well as with removal of electrodes to determine technical reproducibility. The inter-limb spot ratio of the controls was then compared to that of a number of women previously diagnosed with secondary lymphoedema in the forearm. Biological variability was not found to greatly influence repeated measures but only moderate technical reliability was found despite excellent co-efficient of variation for the majority of the measurements. A difference was seen between those with more severe swelling and the controls. This novel technique shows promise in detecting tissue changes associated with long-standing lymphoedema.

Plant-eriophyoid mite interactions: cellular biochemistry and metabolic responses induced in mite-injured plants. Part I.

PubMed

Petanović, Radmila; Kielkiewicz, Malgorzata

2010-07-01

This review is a comprehensive study of recent advances related to cytological, biochemical and physiological changes induced in plants in response to eriophyoid mite attack. It has been shown that responses of host plants to eriophyoids are variable. Most of the variability is due to individual eriophyoid mite-plant interactions. Usually, the direction and intensity of changes in eriophyoid-infested plant organs depend on mite genotype, density, or the feeding period, and are strongly differentiated relative to host plant species, cultivar, age and location. Although the mechanisms of changes elicited by eriophyoid mites within plants are not fully understood, in many cases the qualitative and quantitative biochemical status of mite-infested plants are known to affect the performance of consecutive herbivorous arthropods. In future, elucidation of the pathways from eriophyoid mite damage to plant gene activation will be necessary to clarify plant responses and to explain variation in plant tissue damage at the feeding and adjacent sites.

Evaluating species-specific changes in hydrologic regimes: an iterative approach for salmonids in the Greater Yellowstone Area (USA)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Al-Chokhachy, Robert K.; Sepulveda, Adam; Ray, Andrew M.; Thoma, David P.; Tercek, Michael T.

2017-01-01

Despite the importance of hydrologic regimes to the phenology, demography, and abundance of fishes such as salmonids, there have been surprisingly few syntheses that holistically assess regional, species-specific trends in hydrologic regimes within a framework of climate change. Here, we consider hydrologic regimes within the Greater Yellowstone Area in the Rocky Mountains of western North America to evaluate changes in hydrologic metrics anticipated to affect salmonids, a group of fishes with high regional ecological and socioeconomic value. Our analyses assessed trends across different sites and time periods (1930–, 1950–, and 1970–2015) as means to evaluate spatial and temporal shifts. Consistent patterns emerged from our analyses indicating substantial shifts to (1) earlier peak discharge events; (2) reductions of summer minimum streamflows; (3) declines in the duration of river ice; and (4) decreases in total volume of water. We found accelerated trends in hydrologic change for the 1970–2015 period, with an average peak discharge 7.5 days earlier, 27.5% decline in summer minimum streamflows, and a 15.6% decline in the annual total volume of water (1 October–September 30) across sites. We did observe considerable variability in magnitude of change across sites, suggesting different levels of vulnerability to a changing climate. Our analyses provide an iterative means for assessing climate predictions and an important step in identifying the climate resilience of landscapes.

Snowshoe hares display limited phenotypic plasticity to mismatch in seasonal camouflage

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zimova, Marketa; Mills, L. Scott; Lukacs, Paul M.; Mitchell, Michael S.

2014-01-01

As duration of snow cover decreases owing to climate change, species undergoing seasonal colour moults can become colour mismatched with their background. The immediate adaptive solution to this mismatch is phenotypic plasticity, either in phenology of seasonal colour moults or in behaviours that reduce mismatch or its consequences. We observed nearly 200 snowshoe hares across a wide range of snow conditions and two study sites in Montana, USA, and found minimal plasticity in response to mismatch between coat colour and background. We found that moult phenology varied between study sites, likely due to differences in photoperiod and climate, but was largely fixed within study sites with only minimal plasticity to snow conditions during the spring white-to-brown moult. We also found no evidence that hares modify their behaviour in response to colour mismatch. Hiding and fleeing behaviours and resting spot preference of hares were more affected by variables related to season, site and concealment by vegetation, than by colour mismatch. We conclude that plasticity in moult phenology and behaviours in snowshoe hares is insufficient for adaptation to camouflage mismatch, suggesting that any future adaptation to climate change will require natural selection on moult phenology or behaviour.

Model and parametric uncertainty in source-based kinematic models of earthquake ground motion

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hartzell, Stephen; Frankel, Arthur; Liu, Pengcheng; Zeng, Yuehua; Rahman, Shariftur

2011-01-01

Four independent ground-motion simulation codes are used to model the strong ground motion for three earthquakes: 1994 Mw 6.7 Northridge, 1989 Mw 6.9 Loma Prieta, and 1999 Mw 7.5 Izmit. These 12 sets of synthetics are used to make estimates of the variability in ground-motion predictions. In addition, ground-motion predictions over a grid of sites are used to estimate parametric uncertainty for changes in rupture velocity. We find that the combined model uncertainty and random variability of the simulations is in the same range as the variability of regional empirical ground-motion data sets. The majority of the standard deviations lie between 0.5 and 0.7 natural-log units for response spectra and 0.5 and 0.8 for Fourier spectra. The estimate of model epistemic uncertainty, based on the different model predictions, lies between 0.2 and 0.4, which is about one-half of the estimates for the standard deviation of the combined model uncertainty and random variability. Parametric uncertainty, based on variation of just the average rupture velocity, is shown to be consistent in amplitude with previous estimates, showing percentage changes in ground motion from 50% to 300% when rupture velocity changes from 2.5 to 2.9 km/s. In addition, there is some evidence that mean biases can be reduced by averaging ground-motion estimates from different methods.

Climate insensitivity of treeline in the Canadian Rocky Mountains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, E. A.; Macias Fauria, M.

2011-12-01

Successful modelling efforts demonstrate that tree presence over a ~ 200 km2 alpine/subalpine area in the Front Ranges of the Canadian Rocky Mountains results from a multi-scale spatiotemporal process competition involving not only growing season temperatures but also topographical shelter, water availability, and substrate stability and availability. The study area was selected to represent the diversity of substrates and geomorphologic processes found in the Canadian Rockies, and ranges in elevation from 1400 to > 2800 meters above sea level. Tree presence was mapped at 10m resolution using a combination of remote sensing imagery (taken in 2008) and intensive ground truthing, and modelled with an ensemble of state-of-the-art environmental envelope models. Explanatory variables chosen represented not only temperature and moisture availability (computed over 1971-2000 climate normals), but also substrate diversity, slope angle and type, geomorphologic features, modelled regolith depth, and concavity/convexity of the terrain. Such variables were meant to serve as proxies for known convergent and divergent processes that occur on steep landscapes and that have profound influence on tree establishment and survival. Model performance was very high and revealed substrate and geomorphology to be the most important explanatory variables for tree presence in the area. Available high-resolution imagery for 1954 enabled the mapping of tree presence over most of the study area and the identification of changes in the distribution of trees over the last nearly six decades. Overall, the only major observed changes were related to post-fire stand recovery, and areas with treeline advance were insignificant at the landscape scale. Tree suitable sites were projected onto high resolution grids of late 21st century climatic conditions predicted by regional climate models driven by atmosphere-ocean general circulation models. Emissions scenario was A2 (as defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), at the higher end of emissions scenarios, and thus at the higher end of forecasted temperature increases. Projected changes in tree site availability were minimal at the landscape scale, as the presence of trees in the uppermost part of these forests largely depends on the existence of suitable sites largely linked to topography. Such places are the result of geomorphologic processes acting on a framework set by the structural geology of the region, and thus the appearance of new sites suitable for tree growth does not depend on short (i.e. yearly to decadal) time scales but on longer ones (i.e. centuries to millennia). This work has the strength of studying treeline over a whole area, thus avoiding potential biases in the regional representativity of local study sites, and warns against careless upscaling of site-based studies. Moreover, we suggest that the term 'treeline' is weak at a high-resolution landscape scale in our study area (i.e. young glaciated terrain) because the distribution of trees over the landscape is spatially irregular and most of the processes enabling or preventing tree presence occur over its whole elevational range.

Modeled ecohydrological responses to climate change at seven small watersheds in the northeastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pourmokhtarian, Afshin; Driscoll, Charles T.; Campbell, John L.; Hayhoe, Katharine; Stoner, Anne M. K.; Adams, Mary Beth; Burns, Douglas; Fernandez, Ivan; Mitchell, Myron J.; Shanley, James B.

2017-01-01

A cross-site analysis was conducted on seven diverse, forested watersheds in the northeastern United States to evaluate hydrological responses (evapotranspiration, soil moisture, seasonal and annual streamflow, and water stress) to projections of future climate. We used output from four atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs; CCSM4, HadGEM2-CC, MIROC5, and MRI-CGCM3) included in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, coupled with two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 8.5 and 4.5). The coarse resolution AOGCMs outputs were statistically downscaled using an asynchronous regional regression model to provide finer resolution future climate projections as inputs to the deterministic dynamic ecosystem model PnET-BGC. Simulation results indicated that projected warmer temperatures and longer growing seasons in the northeastern United States are anticipated to increase evapotranspiration across all sites, although invoking CO2 effects on vegetation (growth enhancement and increases in water use efficiency (WUE)) diminish this response. The model showed enhanced evapotranspiration resulted in drier growing season conditions across all sites and all scenarios in the future. Spruce-fir conifer forests have a lower optimum temperature for photosynthesis, making them more susceptible to temperature stress than more tolerant hardwood species, potentially giving hardwoods a competitive advantage in the future. However, some hardwood forests are projected to experience seasonal water stress, despite anticipated increases in precipitation, due to the higher temperatures, earlier loss of snow packs, longer growing seasons, and associated water deficits. Considering future CO2effects on WUE in the model alleviated water stress across all sites. Modeled streamflow responses were highly variable, with some sites showing significant increases in annual water yield, while others showed decreases. This variability in streamflow responses poses a challenge to water resource management in the northeastern United States. Our analyses suggest that dominant vegetation type and soil type are important attributes in determining future hydrological responses to climate change.

Modeled ecohydrological responses to climate change at seven small watersheds in the northeastern United States.

PubMed

Pourmokhtarian, Afshin; Driscoll, Charles T; Campbell, John L; Hayhoe, Katharine; Stoner, Anne M K; Adams, Mary Beth; Burns, Douglas; Fernandez, Ivan; Mitchell, Myron J; Shanley, James B

2017-02-01

A cross-site analysis was conducted on seven diverse, forested watersheds in the northeastern United States to evaluate hydrological responses (evapotranspiration, soil moisture, seasonal and annual streamflow, and water stress) to projections of future climate. We used output from four atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs; CCSM4, HadGEM2-CC, MIROC5, and MRI-CGCM3) included in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, coupled with two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 8.5 and 4.5). The coarse resolution AOGCMs outputs were statistically downscaled using an asynchronous regional regression model to provide finer resolution future climate projections as inputs to the deterministic dynamic ecosystem model PnET-BGC. Simulation results indicated that projected warmer temperatures and longer growing seasons in the northeastern United States are anticipated to increase evapotranspiration across all sites, although invoking CO 2 effects on vegetation (growth enhancement and increases in water use efficiency (WUE)) diminish this response. The model showed enhanced evapotranspiration resulted in drier growing season conditions across all sites and all scenarios in the future. Spruce-fir conifer forests have a lower optimum temperature for photosynthesis, making them more susceptible to temperature stress than more tolerant hardwood species, potentially giving hardwoods a competitive advantage in the future. However, some hardwood forests are projected to experience seasonal water stress, despite anticipated increases in precipitation, due to the higher temperatures, earlier loss of snow packs, longer growing seasons, and associated water deficits. Considering future CO 2 effects on WUE in the model alleviated water stress across all sites. Modeled streamflow responses were highly variable, with some sites showing significant increases in annual water yield, while others showed decreases. This variability in streamflow responses poses a challenge to water resource management in the northeastern United States. Our analyses suggest that dominant vegetation type and soil type are important attributes in determining future hydrological responses to climate change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A hyper-temporal remote sensing protocol for high-resolution mapping of ecological sites

PubMed Central

Karl, Jason W.

2017-01-01

Ecological site classification has emerged as a highly effective land management framework, but its utility at a regional scale has been limited due to the spatial ambiguity of ecological site locations in the U.S. or the absence of ecological site maps in other regions of the world. In response to these shortcomings, this study evaluated the use of hyper-temporal remote sensing (i.e., hundreds of images) for high spatial resolution mapping of ecological sites. We posit that hyper-temporal remote sensing can provide novel insights into the spatial variability of ecological sites by quantifying the temporal response of land surface spectral properties. This temporal response provides a spectral ‘fingerprint’ of the soil-vegetation-climate relationship which is central to the concept of ecological sites. Consequently, the main objective of this study was to predict the spatial distribution of ecological sites in a semi-arid rangeland using a 28-year time series of normalized difference vegetation index from Landsat TM 5 data and modeled using support vector machine classification. Results from this study show that support vector machine classification using hyper-temporal remote sensing imagery was effective in modeling ecological site classes, with a 62% correct classification. These results were compared to Gridded Soil Survey Geographic database and expert delineated maps of ecological sites which had a 51 and 89% correct classification, respectively. An analysis of the effects of ecological state on ecological site misclassifications revealed that sites in degraded states (e.g., shrub-dominated/shrubland and bare/annuals) had a higher rate of misclassification due to their close spectral similarity with other ecological sites. This study identified three important factors that need to be addressed to improve future model predictions: 1) sampling designs need to fully represent the range of both within class (i.e., states) and between class (i.e., ecological sites) spectral variability through time, 2) field sampling protocols that accurately characterize key soil properties (e.g., texture, depth) need to be adopted, and 3) additional environmental covariates (e.g. terrain attributes) need to be evaluated that may help further differentiate sites with similar spectral signals. Finally, the proposed hyper-temporal remote sensing framework may provide a standardized approach to evaluate and test our ecological site concepts through examining differences in vegetation dynamics in response to climatic variability and other drivers of land-use change. Results from this study demonstrate the efficacy of the hyper-temporal remote sensing approach for high resolution mapping of ecological sites, and highlights its utility in terms of reduced cost and time investment relative to traditional manual mapping approaches. PMID:28414731

A hyper-temporal remote sensing protocol for high-resolution mapping of ecological sites.

PubMed

Maynard, Jonathan J; Karl, Jason W

2017-01-01

Ecological site classification has emerged as a highly effective land management framework, but its utility at a regional scale has been limited due to the spatial ambiguity of ecological site locations in the U.S. or the absence of ecological site maps in other regions of the world. In response to these shortcomings, this study evaluated the use of hyper-temporal remote sensing (i.e., hundreds of images) for high spatial resolution mapping of ecological sites. We posit that hyper-temporal remote sensing can provide novel insights into the spatial variability of ecological sites by quantifying the temporal response of land surface spectral properties. This temporal response provides a spectral 'fingerprint' of the soil-vegetation-climate relationship which is central to the concept of ecological sites. Consequently, the main objective of this study was to predict the spatial distribution of ecological sites in a semi-arid rangeland using a 28-year time series of normalized difference vegetation index from Landsat TM 5 data and modeled using support vector machine classification. Results from this study show that support vector machine classification using hyper-temporal remote sensing imagery was effective in modeling ecological site classes, with a 62% correct classification. These results were compared to Gridded Soil Survey Geographic database and expert delineated maps of ecological sites which had a 51 and 89% correct classification, respectively. An analysis of the effects of ecological state on ecological site misclassifications revealed that sites in degraded states (e.g., shrub-dominated/shrubland and bare/annuals) had a higher rate of misclassification due to their close spectral similarity with other ecological sites. This study identified three important factors that need to be addressed to improve future model predictions: 1) sampling designs need to fully represent the range of both within class (i.e., states) and between class (i.e., ecological sites) spectral variability through time, 2) field sampling protocols that accurately characterize key soil properties (e.g., texture, depth) need to be adopted, and 3) additional environmental covariates (e.g. terrain attributes) need to be evaluated that may help further differentiate sites with similar spectral signals. Finally, the proposed hyper-temporal remote sensing framework may provide a standardized approach to evaluate and test our ecological site concepts through examining differences in vegetation dynamics in response to climatic variability and other drivers of land-use change. Results from this study demonstrate the efficacy of the hyper-temporal remote sensing approach for high resolution mapping of ecological sites, and highlights its utility in terms of reduced cost and time investment relative to traditional manual mapping approaches.

Landscape genomic prediction for restoration of a Eucalyptus foundation species under climate change.

PubMed

Supple, Megan Ann; Bragg, Jason G; Broadhurst, Linda M; Nicotra, Adrienne B; Byrne, Margaret; Andrew, Rose L; Widdup, Abigail; Aitken, Nicola C; Borevitz, Justin O

2018-04-24

As species face rapid environmental change, we can build resilient populations through restoration projects that incorporate predicted future climates into seed sourcing decisions. Eucalyptus melliodora is a foundation species of a critically endangered community in Australia that is a target for restoration. We examined genomic and phenotypic variation to make empirical based recommendations for seed sourcing. We examined isolation by distance and isolation by environment, determining high levels of gene flow extending for 500 km and correlations with climate and soil variables. Growth experiments revealed extensive phenotypic variation both within and among sampling sites, but no site-specific differentiation in phenotypic plasticity. Model predictions suggest that seed can be sourced broadly across the landscape, providing ample diversity for adaptation to environmental change. Application of our landscape genomic model to E. melliodora restoration projects can identify genomic variation suitable for predicted future climates, thereby increasing the long term probability of successful restoration. © 2018, Supple et al.

Pollen-based reconstruction of Holocene climate variability in the Eifel region evaluated with stable isotopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kühl, Norbert; Moschen, Robert; Wagner, Stefanie

2010-05-01

Pollen as well as stable isotopes have great potential as climate proxy data. While variability in these proxy data is frequently assumed to reflect climate variability, other factors than climate, including human impact and statistical noise, can often not be excluded as primary cause for the observed variability. Multiproxy studies offer the opportunity to test different drivers by providing different lines of evidence for environmental change such as climate variability and human impact. In this multiproxy study we use pollen and peat humification to evaluate to which extent stable oxygen and carbon isotope series from the peat bog "Dürres Maar" reflect human impact rather than climate variability. For times before strong anthropogenic vegetation change, isotope series from Dürres Maar were used to validate quantitative reconstructions based on pollen. Our study site is the kettle hole peat bog "Dürres Maar" in the Eifel low mountain range, Germany (450m asl), which grew 12m during the last 10,000 years. Pollen was analysed with a sum of at least 1000 terrestrial pollen grains throughout the profile to minimize statistical effects on the reconstructions. A recently developed probabilistic indicator taxa method ("pdf-method") was used for the quantitative climate estimates (January and July temperature) based on pollen. For isotope analysis, attention was given to use monospecific Sphagnum leaves whenever possible, reducing the potential of a species effect and any potential artefact that can originate from selective degradation of different morphological parts of Sphagnum plants (Moschen et al., 2009). Pollen at "Dürres Maar" reflect the variable and partly strong human impact on vegetation during the last 4000 years. Stable isotope time series were apparently not influenced by human impact at this site. This highlights the potential of stable isotope investigations from peat for climatic interpretation, because stable isotope series from lacustrine sediments might strongly react to anthropogenic deforestation, as carbon isotope time series from the adjacent Lake Holzmaar suggest. Reconstructions based on pollen with the pdf-method are robust to the human impact during the last 4000 years, but do not reproduce the fine scale climate variability that can be derived from the stable isotope series (Kühl et al., in press). In contrast, reconstructions on the basis of pollen data show relatively pronounced climate variability (here: January temperature) during the Mid-Holocene, which is known from many other European records. The oxygen isotope time series as available now indicate that at least some of the observed variability indeed reflects climate variability. However, stable carbon isotopes show little concordance. At this stage our results point in the direction that 1) the isotopic composition might reflect a shift in influencing factors during the Holocene, 2) climate trends can robustly be reconstructed with the pdf method and 3) fine scale climate variability can potentially be reconstructed using the pdf-method, given that climate sensitive taxa at their distribution limit are present. The latter two conclusions are of particular importance for the reconstruction of climatic trends and variability of interglacials older than the Holocene, when sites are rare and pollen is often the only suitable proxy in terrestrial records. Kühl, N., Moschen, R., Wagner, S., Brewer, S., Peyron, O., in press. A multiproxy record of Late Holocene natural and anthropogenic environmental change from the Sphagnum peat bog Dürres Maar, Germany: implications for quantitative climate reconstructions based on pollen. J. Quat. Sci., DOI: 10.1002/jqs.1342. Available online. Moschen, R., Kühl, N., Rehberger, I., Lücke, A., 2009. Stable carbon and oxygen isotopes in sub-fossil Sphagnum: Assessment of their applicability for palaeoclimatology. Chemical Geology 259, 262-272.

Seismic rate changes associated with seasonal, annual, and decadal changes in the cryosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sauber, J. M.; Luthcke, S. B.; Hall, D. K.

2012-12-01

Near the Bering Glacier Global Fiducial Program (GFP) in southern Alaska large cryospheric fluctuations occur in a region of upper crustal faulting and folding associated with collision and accretion of the Yakutat terrane. In this study we report constraints on seasonal, annual and decadal cryospheric changes estimated over the last decade from field, aircraft and satellite measurements and we evaluate the influence of cryospheric changes on the background seismic rate. Multi-year images from the Bering Glacier GFP are available since mid-2003 to constrain changes in extent of the Bering Glacier and to discern feature changes in the glacial surface. Starting around the same time, satellite gravimetric measurements from the Gravity Recovery and Climate experiment (GRACE) commenced. Large spatial-scale mass change calculated from the GRACE mascon solution of Luthcke et al. [2012] indicate a general trend of annual ice mass loss for southern Alaska but with large, variable seasonal mass fluctuations. Since 2007 the station position of a continuous GPS site near Cape Yakataga (Alaska EarthScope PBO site, AB35) has been available as well. In addition to changes in the geodetic position due to tectonic motion, this GPS station shows large seasonal excursions in the detrended vertical and horizontal position components consistent with snow loading in the fall and winter and melt onset/mass decrease in the spring/summer. To better understand the timing of processes responsible for the onset of cryospheric mass loss documented in the GRACE data, we examined changes in the snow cover extent and the onset of melt in the spring. We calculated the elastic displacements of the solid Earth and theoretical earthquake failure criteria associated with these annual and seasonal ice and snow changes. Additionally, we compared the seismic rate (M>1.8) from a reference background time period against other time periods with variable ice or tectonic change characteristics to test the significance of seismic rate changes. Our earlier results suggest statistically significant changes in the background seismic rate associated with large seasonal mass changes.

Long-term solar UV radiation reconstructed by Artificial Neural Networks (ANN)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feister, U.; Junk, J.; Woldt, M.

2008-01-01

Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) are efficient tools to derive solar UV radiation from measured meteorological parameters such as global radiation, aerosol optical depths and atmospheric column ozone. The ANN model has been tested with different combinations of data from the two sites Potsdam and Lindenberg, and used to reconstruct solar UV radiation at eight European sites by more than 100 years into the past. Annual totals of UV radiation derived from reconstructed daily UV values reflect interannual variations and long-term patterns that are compatible with variabilities and changes of measured input data, in particular global dimming by about 1980-1990, subsequent global brightening, volcanic eruption effects such as that of Mt. Pinatubo, and the long-term ozone decline since the 1970s. Patterns of annual erythemal UV radiation are very similar at sites located at latitudes close to each other, but different patterns occur between UV radiation at sites in different latitude regions.

Surface ozone in China: present-day distribution and long-term changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, X.; Lin, W.; Xu, W.

2017-12-01

Reliable knowledge of spatio-temporal variations of surface ozone is highly needed to assess the impacts of ozone on human health, ecosystem and climate. Although regional distributions and trends of surface ozone in European and North American countries have been well characterized, little is known about the variability of surface ozone in many other countries, including China, where emissions of ozone precursors have been changing rapidly in recent decades. Here we present the first comprehensive description of present-day (2013-2017) distribution and long-term changes of surface ozone in mainland China. Recent ozone measurements from China's air quality monitoring network (AQMN) are analyzed to show present-day distributions of a few ozone exposure metrics for urban environment. Long-term measurements of ozone at six background sites, a rural site and an urban are used to study the trends of ozone in background, rural and urban air, respectively. The average levels of ozone at the AQMN sites (mainly urban) are close to those found at many European and North American sites. However, ozone at most of the sites shows very large diurnal and seasonal variations so that ozone nonattainment can occur in many cities, particularly those in the North China Plain (NCP), the south of Northeast China (NEC), the Yangtze River Delta (YRD), the Pearl River Delta (PRD), and the Sichuan Basin-Chongqing region (SCB). In all these regions, particularly in the NCP, the maximum daily 8-h average (MDA8) ozone concentration can significantly exceed the national limit (75 ppb). High annual sum of ozone means over 35 ppb (SOMO35) exist mainly in the NCP, NEC and YRD, with regional averages over 4000 ppb·d. Surface ozone has significantly increased at Waliguan (a baseline site in western China) and Shangdianzi (a background site in the NCP), and decreased in winter and spring at Longfengshan (a background site in Northeast China). No clear trend can be derived from long-term measurements of ozone at other sites. Further attention should be paid to future changes of ozone in populated regions of China. Actions are urgently needed to control ozone pollution in the NCP and YRD.

Geochemical Trends and Natural Attenuation of RDX, Nitrate, and Perchlorate in the Hazardous Test Area Fractured-Granite Aquifer, White Sands Missile Range, New Mexico, 1996-2006

USGS Publications Warehouse

Langman, Jeff B.; Robertson, Andrew J.; Bynum, Jamar; Gebhardt, Fredrick E.

2008-01-01

A fractured-granite aquifer at White Sands Missile Range is contaminated with the explosive compound RDX, nitrate, and perchlorate (oxidizer associated with rocket propellant) from the previous use of the Open Burn/Open Detonation site at the Hazardous Test Area. RDX, nitrate, and perchlorate ground-water concentrations were analyzed to examine source characteristics, spatial and temporal variability, and the influence of the natural attenuation processes of dilution and degradation in the Hazardous Test Area fractured-granite aquifer. Two transects of ground-water wells from the existing monitoring-site network - one perpendicular to ground-water flow (transect A-A') and another parallel to ground-water flow (transect B-B') - were selected to examine source characteristics and the spatial and temporal variability of the contaminant concentrations. Ground-water samples collected in 2005 from a larger sampling of monitoring sites than the two transects were analyzed for various tracers including major ions, trace elements, RDX degradates, dissolved gases, water isotopes, nitrate isotopes, and sulfate isotopes to examine the natural attenuation processes of dilution and degradation. Recharge entrains contaminants at the site and transports them downgradient towards the Tularosa Basin floor through a poorly connected fracture system(s). From 1996 to 2006, RDX, nitrate, and perchlorate concentrations in ground water downgradient from the Open Burn/Open Detonation site have been relatively stable. RDX, nitrate, and perchlorate in ground water from wells near the site indicate dispersed contaminant sources in and near the Open Burn/Open Detonation pits. The sources of RDX and nitrate in the pit area have shifted with time, and the shift correlates with the regrading of the south and east berms of each pit in 2002 and 2003 following closure of the site. The largest RDX concentrations were in ground water about 0.1 mile downgradient from the pits, the largest perchlorate concentrations were in ground water about 0.15 mile downgradient from the pits, and the largest nitrate concentrations were in ground water about 0.25 mile down-gradient from the pits. Strong and moderate correlation of water level and the contaminant concentrations near the source areas and low correlation outside and downgradient from the source areas indicates a diminishing of the water level/contaminant relation with downgradient flow. Ground water was not progressively older at all locations downgradient from the Open Burn/Open Detonation site indicating multiple recharge areas. Major ion and strontium concentrations and d2H and d18O values identified similar sources of recharge waters comprising the aquifer except along the basin periphery where recharge water may be influenced by dissolution of mineral assemblages associated with ore deposits that are present along the basin margins. Ground-water ages, dissolved-solids concentrations, and calcium-strontium concentrations indicate limited or partial connectivity between fractures and contributions of uncontaminated recharge water downgradient from the site that dilutes contaminant concentrations. Changes in RDX and nitrate concentration patterns, the presence of methane, changes in carbon dioxide concentrations and d15N and d34S values, and variable reduction-oxidation conditions suggest degradation of contaminants in the downgradient direction. Estimated values of electron potential were assigned to ground water collected in October 2005 from all monitoring sites at the Hazardous Test Area. Moderate to strong reducing conditions were present upgradient from the Open Burn/Open Detonation site, at the site, and at various locations downgradient from the site, but the aquifer contained well-oxygenated water between many of the reducing areas. The spatial variability of reduction-oxidation conditions in the aquifer exemplifies the partial connectivity of the fracture system(s). Dilution of the contaminants i

Millennial-Scale Variability in the Indian Monsoon and Links to Ocean Circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeLong, K. A.; Came, R. E.; Johnson, J. E.; Giosan, L.

2014-12-01

Millennial-scale variability in the Indian monsoon was temporally linked to changes in global ocean circulation during the last glacial period, as evidenced by planktic-benthic foraminiferal stable isotope and trace element results from an intermediate depth sediment core from the northwestern Bay of Bengal. Paired planktic foraminiferal Mg/Ca and δ18Oc constrain sea surface temperatures and isolate millennial-scale variations in the δ18O of surface waters (δ18Osw), which resulted from changes in river runoff in the northwestern Bay. Concurrently with low δ18Osw events, benthic foraminiferal δ13C decreased, suggesting an increased influence of an aged water mass at this intermediate depth site during the low salinity events. Benthic foraminiferal Cd/Ca results support the identification of this water mass as aged Glacial Antarctic Intermediate Water (GAAIW). Lagged correlation analysis (r= 0.41) indicates that changes in subsurface properties led changes in surface properties by an average of 380 years. The implication is that Southern Hemisphere climate exerted a controlling influence on the Indian monsoon during the last glacial period.

The changing role of fire in conifer-dominated temperate rainforest through the last 14,000 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fletcher, M.-S.; Bowman, D. M. J. S.; Whitlock, C.; Mariani, M.; Stahle, L.

2018-02-01

Climate, fire and vegetation dynamics are often tightly coupled through time. Here, we use a 14 kyr sedimentary charcoal and pollen record from Lake Osborne, Tasmania, Australia, to explore how this relationship changes under varying climatic regimes within a temperate rainforest ecosystem. Superposed epoch analysis reveals a significant relationship between fire and vegetation change throughout the Holocene at our site. Our data indicates an initial resilience of the rainforest system to fire under a stable cool and humid climate regime between ca. 12-6 ka. In contrast, fires that occurred after 6 ka, under an increasingly variable climate regime wrought by the onset of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), resulted in a series of changes within the local rainforest vegetation that culminated in the replacement of rainforest by fire-promoted Eucalypt forest. We suggest that an increasingly variable ENSO-influenced climate regime inhibited rainforest recovery from fire because of slower growth, reduced fecundity and increased fire frequency, thus contributing to the eventual collapse of the rainforest system.

Comparison Between Two Methods for Estimating the Vertical Scale of Fluctuation for Modeling Random Geotechnical Problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pieczyńska-Kozłowska, Joanna M.

2015-12-01

The design process in geotechnical engineering requires the most accurate mapping of soil. The difficulty lies in the spatial variability of soil parameters, which has been a site of investigation of many researches for many years. This study analyses the soil-modeling problem by suggesting two effective methods of acquiring information for modeling that consists of variability from cone penetration test (CPT). The first method has been used in geotechnical engineering, but the second one has not been associated with geotechnics so far. Both methods are applied to a case study in which the parameters of changes are estimated. The knowledge of the variability of parameters allows in a long term more effective estimation, for example, bearing capacity probability of failure.

A Geographic Mosaic of Climate Change Impacts on Terrestrial Vegetation: Which Areas Are Most at Risk?

PubMed Central

Ackerly, David D.; Cornwell, William K.; Weiss, Stuart B.; Flint, Lorraine E.; Flint, Alan L.

2015-01-01

Changes in climate projected for the 21st century are expected to trigger widespread and pervasive biotic impacts. Forecasting these changes and their implications for ecosystem services is a major research goal. Much of the research on biotic responses to climate change has focused on either projected shifts in individual species distributions or broad-scale changes in biome distributions. Here, we introduce a novel application of multinomial logistic regression as a powerful approach to model vegetation distributions and potential responses to 21st century climate change. We modeled the distribution of 22 major vegetation types, most defined by a single dominant woody species, across the San Francisco Bay Area. Predictor variables included climate and topographic variables. The novel aspect of our model is the output: a vector of relative probabilities for each vegetation type in each location within the study domain. The model was then projected for 54 future climate scenarios, spanning a representative range of temperature and precipitation projections from the CMIP3 and CMIP5 ensembles. We found that sensitivity of vegetation to climate change is highly heterogeneous across the region. Surprisingly, sensitivity to climate change is higher closer to the coast, on lower insolation, north-facing slopes and in areas of higher precipitation. While such sites may provide refugia for mesic and cool-adapted vegetation in the face of a warming climate, the model suggests they will still be highly dynamic and relatively sensitive to climate-driven vegetation transitions. The greater sensitivity of moist and low insolation sites is an unexpected outcome that challenges views on the location and stability of climate refugia. Projections provide a foundation for conservation planning and land management, and highlight the need for a greater understanding of the mechanisms and time scales of potential climate-driven vegetation transitions. PMID:26115485

Derivation of Nationally Consistent Indices Representing Urban Intensity Within and Across Nine Metropolitan Areas of the Conterminous United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cuffney, Thomas F.; Falcone, James A.

2009-01-01

Two nationally consistent multimetric indices of urban intensity were developed to support studies of the effects of urbanization on streams in nine metropolitan areas of the conterminous United States: Atlanta, Georgia; Birmingham, Alabama; Boston, Massachusetts; Dallas-Fort Worth, Texas; Denver, Colorado; Milwaukee-Green Bay, Wisconsin; Portland, Oregon; Raleigh, North Carolina; and Salt Lake City, Utah. These studies were conducted as a part of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water-Quality Assessment Program. These urban intensity indices were used to define gradients of urbanization and to interpret biological, physical, and chemical changes along these gradients. Ninety census, land-cover, and infrastructure variables obtained from nationally available databases were evaluated. Only variables that exhibited a strong and consistent linear relation with 2000 population density were considered for use in the indices. Housing-unit density (HUDEN), percentage of basin area in developed land (P_NLCD1_2), and road density (ROADDEN) were selected as the best representatives of census, land-cover, and infrastructure variables. The metropolitan area national urban intensity index (MA-NUII) was scaled to represent urban intensity within each metropolitan area and ranged from 0 (little or no urban) to 100 (maximum urban) for sites within each metropolitan area. The national urban intensity index (NUII) was scaled to represent urban intensity across all nine metropolitan areas and ranged from 0 to 100 for all sites. The rates at which HUDEN, P_NLCD1_2, and ROADDEN changed with changes in population density varied among metropolitan areas. Therefore, these variables were adjusted to obtain a more uniform rate of response across metropolitan areas in the derivation of the NUII. The NUII indicated that maximum levels of urban intensity occurred in the West and Midwest rather than in the East primarily because small inner-city streams in eastern metropolitan areas are buried and converted to storm drains or sewers and because of higher density development in the Western and Central United States. The national indices (MA-NUII, NUII) were compared to indices that were derived independently for each metropolitan area (MA-UII) based on variables that were of local interest. The MA-UIIs, which were based on 5 to 40 variables, tended to overestimate urban intensity relative to the national indices particularly when the MA-UII was composed of large numbers of variables that were not linearly related to population density as in Denver, Dallas-Fort Worth, and Milwaukee-Green Bay.

The Climate change impact on the water balance and use efficiency of two contrasting water limited Mediterranean ecosystems in Sardinia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montaldo, Nicola; Corona, Roberto; Albertson, John

2016-04-01

Mediterranean ecosystems are commonly heterogeneous savanna-like ecosystems, with contrasting plant functional types (PFT) competing for the water use. Often deforestation activities have been more intensive along the plan and alluvial river valleys, where deep soils are well suited for agricultural and grass became the primary PFT, while more natural woody vegetation (trees and shrubs) survived in the steep hillslopes and mountain areas, where soil thickness is low, i.e. less attractive for agricultural. Hence, Mediterranean regions are characterized by two main ecosystems, grassland and woodland, which for both natural and anthropogenic causes can grow in soils with also different characteristics (texture, hydraulic properties, depth), highly impacting water resources. Mediterranean regions suffer water scarcity produced in part by natural (e.g., climate variations) influences. For instance, in the Flumendosa basin water reservoir system, which plays a primary role in the water supply for much of southern Sardinia, the average annual input from stream discharge in the latter part of the 20th century was less than half the historic average rate. The precipitation over the Flumendosa basin has decreased, but not at such a drastic rate as the discharge, suggesting a marked non-linear response of discharge to precipitation changes. Indeed, precipitation decreased in winter months, which are crucial for reservoirs recharge through runoff. At the same time air temperature increased during the spring-summer season, when the precipitation slightly increased. The IPCC models predicts a further increase of drought in the Mediterranean region during winter, increasing the uncertainty on the future of the water resources system of these regions. Hence, there is the need to investigate the role of the PFT vegetation dynamics on the soil water budget of these ecosystems in the context of the climate change, and predict hydrologic variables for climate change scenarios. Sardinia island is a very interesting and representative region of Mediterranean ecosystems. It is low urbanized, and is not irrigated, except some plan areas close to the main cities where main agricultural activities are concentrated. The two case study sites are within the Flumendosa river basin, with similar height a.s.l., and close (distance of 4 km). But the first site is a typically grass site located on an alluvial plan valley with a soil depth more than 2m, while the second site is a patchy mixture of Mediterranean vegetation types with wild olive trees and C3 herbaceous (grass) species and the soil thickness varies from 15-40 cm. In both sites land-surface fluxes and CO2 fluxes are estimated by eddy correlation technique based micrometeorological towers. Soil moisture profiles were also continuously estimated using water content reflectometers and gravimetric method, and periodically leaf area index (LAI) PFTs are estimated from 2003. An ecohydrologic model is successfully tested to the case studies. It couples a vegetation dynamic model (VDM), which computes the change in biomass over time for the PFTs, and a 3-component (bare soil, grass and woody vegetation) land surface model (LSM). Model is first used for simulating historically land surface fluxes from 1922 at the two sites. Climate change scenarios are then generated using a stochastic weather generator. It simulates hydrometeorological variables from historical time series altered by IPCC meteorological change predictions. The VDM-LSM predicts soil water balance and vegetation dynamics for the generated hydrometeorological scenarios at the two sites. Results demonstrate that contrasting climate change effects (decrease of winter precipitation vs increase of spring-summer air temperature) are significantly impacting land surface interactions (evapotranspiration and runoff dynamics) but with different effects on the two contrasting sites, due to the key role of the soil depth. Water resources predictions are worrying in both sites, with further decrease of runoff and water resources.

Changes in production and respiration during a spring phytoplankton bloom in San Francisco Bay, California, USA: Implications for net ecosystem metabolism

USGS Publications Warehouse

Caffrey, J.M.; Cloern, J.E.; Grenz, C.

1998-01-01

We present results of an intensive sampling program designed to measure weekly changes in ecosystem respiration (oxygen consumption in the water column and sediments) around the 1996 spring bloom in South San Francisco Bay, California, USA. Measurements were made at a shallow site (2 m, where mean photic depth was 60% of the water column height) and a deep site (15 m, mean photic depth was only 20% of the water column). We also estimated phytoplankton primary production weekly at both sites to develop estimates of net oxygen flux as the sum of pelagic production (PP), pelagic respiration (PR) and benthic respiration (BR). Over the 14 wk period from February 5 to May 14, PP ranged from 2 to 210, PR from 9 to 289, and BR from 0.1 to 48 mmol O2 m-2 d-1, illustrating large variability of estuarine oxygen fluxes at the weekly time scale. Pelagic production exceeded total respiration at the shallow site, but not at the deep site, demonstrating that the shallow domains are net autotrophic but the deep domains are net heterotrophic, even during the period of the spring bloom. If we take into account the potential primary production by benthic microalgae, the estuary as a whole is net autotrophic during spring, net heterotrophic during the nonbloom seasons, and has a balanced net metabolism over a full annual period. The seasonal shift from net autotrophy to heterotrophy during the transition from spring to summer was accompanied by a large shift from dominance by pelagic respiration to dominance by benthic respiration. This suggests that changes in net ecosystem metabolism can reflect changes in the pathways of energy flow in shallow coastal ecosystems.

Evidence that divergent selection shapes a developmental cline in a forest tree species complex.

PubMed

Costa E Silva, João; Harrison, Peter A; Wiltshire, Robert; Potts, Brad M

2018-05-19

Evolutionary change in developmental trajectories (heterochrony) is a major mechanism of adaptation in plants and animals. However, there are few detailed studies of the variation in the timing of developmental events among wild populations. We here aimed to identify the climatic drivers and measure selection shaping a genetic-based developmental cline among populations of an endemic tree species complex on the island of Tasmania. Seed lots from 38 native provenances encompassing the clinal transition from the heteroblastic Eucalyptus tenuiramis to the homoblastic Eucalyptus risdonii were grown in a common-garden field trial in southern Tasmania for 20 years. We used 27 climatic variables to model the provenance variation in vegetative juvenility as assessed at age 5 years. A phenotypic selection analysis was used to measure the fitness consequences of variation in vegetative juvenility based on its impact on the survival and reproductive capacity of survivors at age 20 years. Significant provenance divergence in vegetative juvenility was shown to be associated with home-site aridity, with the retention of juvenile foliage increasing with increasing aridity. Our results indicated that climate change may lead to different directions of selection across the geographic range of the complex, and in our mesic field site demonstrated that total directional selection within phenotypically variable provenances was in favour of reduced vegetative juvenility. We provide evidence that heteroblasty is adaptive and argue that, in assessing the impacts of rapid global change, developmental plasticity and heterochrony are underappreciated processes which can contribute to populations of long-lived organisms, such as trees, persisting and ultimately adapting to environmental change.

Trends in concentrations and use of agricultural herbicides for Corn Belt rivers, 1996-2006

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vecchia, Aldo V.; Gilliom, Robert J.; Sullivan, Daniel J.; Lorenz, David L.; Martin, Jeffrey D.

2009-01-01

Trends in the concentrations and agricultural use of four herbicides (atrazine, acetochlor, metolachlor, and alachlor) were evaluated for major rivers of the Corn Belt for two partially overlapping time periods: 1996-2002 and 2000-2006. Trends were analyzed for 11 sites on the mainstems and selected tributaries in the Ohio, Upper Mississippi, and Missouri River Basins. Concentration trends were determined using a parametric regression model designed for analyzing seasonal variability, flow-related variability, and trends in pesticide concentrations(SEAWAVE-Q).TheSEAWAVE-Qmodel accounts for the effect of changing flow conditions in order to separate changes caused by hydrologic conditions from changes caused by other factors, such as pesticide use. Most of the trends in atrazine and acetochlor concentrations for both time periods were relatively small and nonsignificant, but metolachlor and alachlor were dominated by varying magnitudes of concentration downtrends. Overall, with trends expressed as a percent change per year, trends in herbicide concentrations were consistent with trends in agricultural use; 84 of 88 comparisons for different sites, herbicides, and time periods showed no significant difference between concentration trends and agricultural use trends. Results indicate that decreasing use appears to have been the primary cause for the concentration downtrends during 1996-2006 and that, while there is some evidence that nonuse management factors may have reduced concentrations in some rivers, reliably evaluating the influence of these factors on pesticides in large streams and rivers will require improved, basin-specific information on both management practices and use over time. ?? 2009 American Chemical Society.

Deployment Considerations for Low-cost Air Quality Sensor Networks; Examining Spatial Variability of Gas-Phase Pollutants Around a Building in Los Angeles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collier-Oxandale, A. M.; Hannigan, M.; Casey, J. G.; Johnston, J.; Coffey, E.; Thorson, J.

2017-12-01

The field of low-cost air quality sensing technologies is growing rapidly through the continual development of new sensors, increased research into sensor performance, and more and more community groups utilizing sensors to investigate local issues. However, as this technology is still in an exploratory phase, there are few `best-practices' available to serve as guidelines for these projects and the standardization of some procedures could benefit the research community as a whole. For example, deployment considerations such as where and how to place a monitor at a given location are often determined by accessibility and safety, power-requirements, and what is an ideal for sampling the target pollutant. Using data from multiple gas-phase sensors, we will examine the importance of siting considerations for low-cost monitoring systems. During a sampling campaign in Los Angeles, a subset of monitors was deployed at one field site to explore the variability in air quality sensor data around a single building. The site is a three story, multi-family housing unit in a primarily residential neighborhood that is near two major roadways and other potential sources of pollution. Five low-cost monitors were co-located prior to and following the field deployment. During the approximately 2.5-month deployment, these monitors were placed at various heights above street level, on different sides of the building, and on the roof. In our analysis, we will examine how monitor placement affects a sensor's ability to detect local verses more regional trends and how this building-scale spatial variability changes over time. Additionally, examining data from VOC sensors (quantified for methane and total non-methane hydrocarbon signals) and O3 sensors will allow us to compare the variability of primary and secondary pollutants. An outcome of this analysis may include guidelines or `best practices' for siting sensors that could aid in ensuring the collection of high quality field data. These may be particularly useful in community-based projects where monitor siting is typically a collaborative process.

Phytoscreening with SPME: Variability Analysis.

PubMed

Limmer, Matt A; Burken, Joel G

2015-01-01

Phytoscreening has been demonstrated at a variety of sites over the past 15 years as a low-impact, sustainable tool in delineation of shallow groundwater contaminated with chlorinated solvents. Collection of tree cores is rapid and straightforward, but low concentrations in tree tissues requires sensitive analytics. Solid-phase microextraction (SPME) is amenable to the complex matrix while allowing for solvent-less extraction. Accurate quantification requires the absence of competitive sorption, examined here both in laboratory experiments and through comprehensive examination of field data. Analysis of approximately 2,000 trees at numerous field sites also allowed testing of the tree genus and diameter effects on measured tree contaminant concentrations. Collectively, while these variables were found to significantly affect site-adjusted perchloroethylene (PCE) concentrations, the explanatory power of these effects was small (adjusted R(2) = 0.031). 90th quantile chemical concentrations in trees were significantly reduced by increasing Henry's constant and increasing hydrophobicity. Analysis of replicate tree core data showed no correlation between replicate relative standard deviation (RSD) and wood type or tree diameter, with an overall median RSD of 30%. Collectively, these findings indicate SPME is an appropriate technique for sampling and analyzing chlorinated solvents in wood and that phytoscreening is robust against changes in tree type and diameter.

A genome-wide methylation study on obesity: differential variability and differential methylation.

PubMed

Xu, Xiaojing; Su, Shaoyong; Barnes, Vernon A; De Miguel, Carmen; Pollock, Jennifer; Ownby, Dennis; Shi, Hidong; Zhu, Haidong; Snieder, Harold; Wang, Xiaoling

2013-05-01

Besides differential methylation, DNA methylation variation has recently been proposed and demonstrated to be a potential contributing factor to cancer risk. Here we aim to examine whether differential variability in methylation is also an important feature of obesity, a typical non-malignant common complex disease. We analyzed genome-wide methylation profiles of over 470,000 CpGs in peripheral blood samples from 48 obese and 48 lean African-American youth aged 14-20 y old. A substantial number of differentially variable CpG sites (DVCs), using statistics based on variances, as well as a substantial number of differentially methylated CpG sites (DMCs), using statistics based on means, were identified. Similar to the findings in cancers, DVCs generally exhibited an outlier structure and were more variable in cases than in controls. By randomly splitting the current sample into a discovery and validation set, we observed that both the DVCs and DMCs identified from the first set could independently predict obesity status in the second set. Furthermore, both the genes harboring DMCs and the genes harboring DVCs showed significant enrichment of genes identified by genome-wide association studies on obesity and related diseases, such as hypertension, dyslipidemia, type 2 diabetes and certain types of cancers, supporting their roles in the etiology and pathogenesis of obesity. We generalized the recent finding on methylation variability in cancer research to obesity and demonstrated that differential variability is also an important feature of obesity-related methylation changes. Future studies on the epigenetics of obesity will benefit from both statistics based on means and statistics based on variances.

Investigating the impact of temporal and spatial variation in spring snow melt on summer soil respiration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

John, G. P.; Papuga, S. A.; Wright, C. L.; Nelson, K.; Barron-Gafford, G. A.

2010-12-01

While soil respiration - the flux of carbon dioxide from the soil surface to the atmosphere - is the second largest terrestrial carbon flux, it is the least well constrained component of the terrestrial carbon cycle. This is in part because of its high variability in space and time that can become amplified under certain environmental conditions. Under current climate change scenarios, both summer and winter precipitation are expected to be altered in terrestrial ecosystems of the southwestern US. Precipitation magnitude and intensity influence soil moisture, which is a key control on ecosystem-scale respiration rates. Therefore understanding how changes in snow and rainfall translate to changes in soil moisture is critical to understanding climate change impacts on soil respiration processes. Our study took place within the footprint of a semiarid mixed-conifer flux measurement system on Mount Bigelow just north of Tucson, AZ. We analyzed images from three understory phenology cameras (pheno-cams) to identify areas that represented early and late snowmelt. Within the field of view of each of the three pheno-cams we established three early-melt and three late-melt soil respiration measurement “sites”. To understand the persistence of snowmelt conditions on summer soil respiration, we measured soil respiration, soil moisture, and soil temperature at all six sites on four days representing different summer periods (i.e. pre-monsoon, early monsoon, mid-monsoon, and late monsoon). Throughout the entire study period, at both early- and late-melt sites soil respiration was strongly correlated with amount of soil moisture, and was less responsive to temperature. Soil respiration generally increased throughout the rainy season, peaking by mid-monsoon at both early- and late-melt sites. Interestingly, early-melt sites were wetter than late-melt sites following rainfall occurring in the pre- and early monsoon. However, following rainfall occurring in the mid- to late monsoon, late-melt sites were wetter than early-melt sites. These preliminary results are an important step toward understanding the role that temporal and spatial variations in snow cover, which will undoubtedly be impacted by climate change, play in the carbon dynamics of these semiarid mountain environments.

Effect of Escitalopram on Hot Flash Interference: A Randomized, Controlled Trial

PubMed Central

Carpenter, Janet S.; Guthrie, Katherine A.; Larson, Joseph C.; Freeman, Ellen W.; Joffe, Hadine; Reed, Susan D.; Ensrud, Kristine E.; LaCroix, Andrea Z.

2012-01-01

Objectives To estimate the effect of escitalopram 10–20 mg/day versus placebo for reducing hot flash interference in daily life and understand correlates and predictors of reductions in hot flash interference, a key measure of quality of life. Design Multi-site, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trial. Patients 205 midlife women (46% African-American) who met criteria participated. Setting MsFLASH clinical sites in Boston, Indianapolis, Oakland, and Philadelphia. Intervention After baseline, women were randomized to 1 pill of escitalopram 10 mg/day (n=104) or placebo (n=101) with follow-up at 4- and 8-weeks. At week 4, those not achieving 50% fewer hot flashes were increased to 2 pills daily (20 mg/day or 2 placebo pills). Main outcome measures The Hot Flash Related Daily Interference Scale; Correlates were variables from hot flash diaries; Predictors were baseline demographics, clinical variables, depression, anxiety, sleep quality, and hot flashes. Results Compared to placebo, escitalopram significantly reduced hot flash interference by 6.0 points at week 4 and 3.4 points at week 8 more than placebo (p=0.012). Reductions in hot flash interference correlated with changes in hot flash diary variables. However, baseline variables did not significantly predict reductions in hot flash interference. Conclusions Escitalopram 10–20mg/day for 8 weeks improves women’s quality of life and this benefit did not vary by demographic, clinical, mood, sleep, or hot flash variables. PMID:22480818

Trace elements have limited utility for studying migratory connectivity in shorebirds that winter in Argentina

USGS Publications Warehouse

Torres-Dowdall, J.; Farmer, A.H.; Abril, M.; Bucher, E.H.; Ridley, I.

2010-01-01

Trace-element analysis has been suggested as a tool for the study of migratory connectivity because (1) trace-element abundance varies spatially in the environment, (2) trace elements are assimilated into animals' tissues through the diet, and (3) current technology permits the analysis of multiple trace elements in a small tissue sample, allowing the simultaneous exploration of several elements. We explored the potential of trace elements (B, Na, Mg, Al, Si, P, S, K, Ca, Ti, Cr, Mn, Ni, Cu, Zn, As, Sr, Cs, Hg, Tl, Pb, Bi, Th, and U) to clarify the migratory connectivity of shorebirds that breed in North America and winter in southern South America. We collected 66 recently replaced secondary feathers from Red Knots (Calidris canutus) at three sites in Patagonia and 76 from White-rumped Sandpipers (C. fuscicollis) at nine sites across Argentina. There were significant differences in trace-element abundance in shorebird feathers grown at different nonbreeding sites, and annual variability within a site was small compared to variability among sites. Across Argentina, there was no large-scale gradient in trace elements. The lack of such a gradient restricts the application of this technique to questions concerning the origin of shorebirds to a small number of discrete sites. Furthermore, our results including three additional species, the Pectoral Sandpiper (C. melanotos), Wilson's Phalarope (Phalaropus tricolor), and Collared Plover (Charadrius collaris), suggest that trace-element profiles change as feathers age. Temporal instability of trace-element values could undermine their application to the study of migratory connectivity in shorebirds. ?? The Cooper Ornithological Society 2010.

Quantifying Forest Soil Physical Variables Potentially Important for Site Growth Analyses

Treesearch

John S. Kush; Douglas G. Pitt; Phillip J. Craul; William D. Boyer

2004-01-01

Accurate mean plot values of forest soil factors are required for use as independent variables in site-growth analyses. Adequate accuracy is often difficult to attain because soils are inherently widely variable. Estimates of the variability of appropriate soil factors influencing growth can be used to determine the sampling intensity required to secure accurate mean...

Astronomical forcing, insolation and millennial-scale climate variability: evidence from the North Atlantic Ocean (IODP Expedition 306, Site U1313) during the Early-Middle Pleistocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferretti, Patrizia; Crowhurst, Simon; Naafs, David; Barbante, Carlo

2015-04-01

Since the seminal work by Hays, Imbrie and Shackleton (1976), a plethora of studies mostly based on marine sediments collected during DSDP-ODP-IODP Expeditions has demonstrated a correlation between orbital variations and climatic change. However, information on how changes in orbital boundary conditions affected the frequency and amplitude of millennial-scale climate variability is still fragmentary. Here we examine the record of climatic conditions from MIS 23 to 17 (c. 920-670 ka) using high-resolution stable isotope records from benthic and planktonic foraminifera from a sedimentary sequence in the North Atlantic (Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 306, Site U1313) in order to evaluate the climate system's response in the millennial band to known orbitally induced insolation changes. Special emphasis is placed on Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 19, an interglacial centred at around 785 ka during which the insolation appears comparable to the current orbital geometry: MIS 19 is characterised by a minimum of the 400-kyr eccentricity cycle, subdued amplitude of precessional changes, and small amplitude variations in insolation making this marine isotopic stage a potential astronomical analogue for the Holocene and its future evolution, if this remains governed by natural forcing (Loutre and Berger 2000). Benthic and planktonic foraminiferal oxygen isotope values indicate relatively stable conditions during the peak warmth of MIS 19, but sea-surface and deep-water reconstructions start diverging during the transition towards the glacial MIS 18, when large, cold excursions disrupt the surface waters whereas low amplitude millennial scale fluctuations persist in the deep waters as recorded by the oxygen isotope signal (Ferretti et al., 2015). The glacial inception occurred at ˜779 ka, in agreement with an increased abundance of tetra-unsaturated alkenones, reflecting the influence of icebergs and associated meltwater pulses and high-latitude waters at the study site. Using a variety of time series analysis techniques, we evaluate the evolution of millennial climate variability in response to changing orbital boundary conditions during the early-middle Pleistocene. Suborbital variability in both surface- and deep-water records is mainly concentrated at a period of ˜11 kyr and, additionally, at ˜5.8 and ˜3.9 kyr in the deep ocean; these periods are equal to harmonics of precession band oscillations. The fact that the response at the 11 kyr period increased over the same interval during which the amplitude of the response to the precessional cycle increased supports the notion that most of the variance in the 11 kyr band in the sedimentary record is nonlinearly transferred from precession band oscillations. Considering that these periodicities are important features in the equatorial and intertropical insolation, these observations are in line with the view that the low-latitude regions play an important role in the response of the climate system to the astronomical forcing. We conclude that the effect of the orbitally induced insolation is of fundamental importance in regulating the timing and amplitude of millennial scale climate variability. Ferretti P., Crowhurst S.J., Naafs B.D.A., Barbante C., 2015. Quaternary Science Reviews 108, 95-110. Hays J.D., Imbrie J., Shackleton N.J., 1976. Science 194, 1121-1132. Loutre M.F., Berger A., 2000. Climatic Change 46, 61-90.

The potential influence of short-term environmental variability on the composition of testate amoeba communities in Sphagnum peatlands.

PubMed

Sullivan, Maura E; Booth, Robert K

2011-07-01

Testate amoebae are a group of moisture-sensitive, shell-producing protozoa that have been widely used as indicators of changes in mean water-table depth within oligotrophic peatlands. However, short-term environmental variability (i.e., sub-annual) also probably influences community composition. The objective of this study was to assess the potential influence of short-term environmental variability on the composition of testate amoeba communities in Sphagnum-dominated peatlands. Testate amoebae and environmental conditions, including hourly measurements of relative humidity within the upper centimeter of the peatland surface, were examined throughout the 2008 growing season at 72 microsites within 11 peatlands of Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, USA. Relationships among testate amoeba communities, vegetation, depth to water table, pH, and an index of short-term environmental variability (EVI), were examined using nonmetric multidimensional scaling and correlation analysis. Results suggest that EVI influences testate amoeba communities, with some taxa more abundant under highly variable conditions (e.g., Arcella discoides, Difflugia pulex, and Hyalosphenia subflava) and others more abundant when environmental conditions at the peatland surface were relatively stable (e.g., Archerella flavum and Bullinularia indica). The magnitude of environmental variability experienced at the peatland surface appears to be primarily controlled by vegetation composition and density. In particular, sites with dense Sphagnum cover had lower EVI values than sites with loose-growing Sphagnum or vegetation dominated by vascular plants and/or non-Sphagnum bryophytes. Our results suggest that more environmental information may be inferred from testate amoebae than previously recognized. Knowledge of relationships between testate amoebae and short-term environmental variability should lead to more detailed and refined environmental inferences.