Report of the solar physics panel

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Withbroe, George L.; Fisher, Richard R.; Antiochos, Spiro; Brueckner, Guenter; Hoeksema, J. Todd; Hudson, Hugh; Moore, Ronald; Radick, Richard R.; Rottman, Gary; Scherrer, Philip

1991-01-01

Recent accomplishments in solar physics can be grouped by the three regions of the Sun: the solar interior, the surface, and the exterior. The future scientific problems and areas of interest involve: generation of magnetic activity cycle, energy storage and release, solar activity, solar wind and solar interaction. Finally, the report discusses a number of future space mission concepts including: High Energy Solar Physics Mission, Global Solar Mission, Space Exploration Initiative, Solar Probe Mission, Solar Variability Explorer, Janus, as well as solar physics on Space Station Freedom.

No evidence for planetary influence on solar activity 330 000 years ago

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cauquoin, A.; Raisbeck, G. M.; Jouzel, J.; Bard, E.

2014-01-01

Context. Abreu et al. (2012, A&A. 548, A88) have recently compared the periodicities in a 14C - 10Be proxy record of solar variability during the Holocene and found a strong similarity with the periodicities predicted on the basis of a model of the time-dependent torque exerted by the planets on the sun's tachocline. If verified, this effect would represent a dramatic advance not only in the basic understanding of the Sun's variable activity, but also in the potential influence of this variability on the Earth's climate. Cameron and Schussler (2013, A&A. 557, A83) have seriously criticized the statistical treatment used by Abreu et al. to test the significance of the coincidences between the periodicities of their model with the Holocene proxy record. Aims: If the Abreu et al. hypothesis is correct, it should be possible to find the same periodicities in the records of cosmogenic nuclides at earlier times. Methods: We present here a high-resolution record of 10Be in the EPICA Dome C (EDC) ice core from Antarctica during the Marine Interglacial Stage 9.3 (MIS 9.3), 325-336 kyr ago, and investigate its spectral properties. Results: We find very limited similarity with the periodicities seen in the proxy record of solar variability during the Holocene, or with that of the model of Abreu et al. Conclusions: We find no support for the hypothesis of a planetary influence on solar activity, and raise the question of whether the centennial periodicities of solar activity observed during the Holocene are representative of solar activity variability in general.

Decoupling Solar Variability and Instrument Trends Using the Multiple Same-Irradiance-Level (MuSIL) Analysis Technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woods, Thomas N.; Eparvier, Francis G.; Harder, Jerald; Snow, Martin

2018-05-01

The solar spectral irradiance (SSI) dataset is a key record for studying and understanding the energetics and radiation balance in Earth's environment. Understanding the long-term variations of the SSI over timescales of the 11-year solar activity cycle and longer is critical for many Sun-Earth research topics. Satellite measurements of the SSI have been made since the 1970s, most of them in the ultraviolet, but recently also in the visible and near-infrared. A limiting factor for the accuracy of previous solar variability results is the uncertainties for the instrument degradation corrections, which need fairly large corrections relative to the amount of solar cycle variability at some wavelengths. The primary objective of this investigation has been to separate out solar cycle variability and any residual uncorrected instrumental trends in the SSI measurements from the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) mission and the Thermosphere, Mesosphere, Ionosphere, Energetic, and Dynamics (TIMED) mission. A new technique called the Multiple Same-Irradiance-Level (MuSIL) analysis has been developed, which examines an SSI time series at different levels of solar activity to provide long-term trends in an SSI record, and the most common result is a downward trend that most likely stems from uncorrected instrument degradation. This technique has been applied to each wavelength in the SSI records from SORCE (2003 - present) and TIMED (2002 - present) to provide new solar cycle variability results between 27 nm and 1600 nm with a resolution of about 1 nm at most wavelengths. This technique, which was validated with the highly accurate total solar irradiance (TSI) record, has an estimated relative uncertainty of about 5% of the measured solar cycle variability. The MuSIL results are further validated with the comparison of the new solar cycle variability results from different solar cycles.

Variability of the Martian thermospheric temperatures during the last 7 Martian Years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzalez-Galindo, Francisco; Lopez-Valverde, Miguel Angel; Millour, Ehouarn; Forget, François

2014-05-01

The temperatures and densities in the Martian upper atmosphere have a significant influence over the different processes producing atmospheric escape. A good knowledge of the thermosphere and its variability is thus necessary in order to better understand and quantify the atmospheric loss to space and the evolution of the planet. Different global models have been used to study the seasonal and interannual variability of the Martian thermosphere, usually considering three solar scenarios (solar minimum, solar medium and solar maximum conditions) to take into account the solar cycle variability. However, the variability of the solar activity within the simulated period of time is not usually considered in these models. We have improved the description of the UV solar flux included on the General Circulation Model for Mars developed at the Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (LMD-MGCM) in order to include its observed day-to-day variability. We have used the model to simulate the thermospheric variability during Martian Years 24 to 30, using realistic UV solar fluxes and dust opacities. The model predicts and interannual variability of the temperatures in the upper thermosphere that ranges from about 50 K during the aphelion to up to 150 K during perihelion. The seasonal variability of temperatures due to the eccentricity of the Martian orbit is modified by the variability of the solar flux within a given Martian year. The solar rotation cycle produces temperature oscillations of up to 30 K. We have also studied the response of the modeled thermosphere to the global dust storms in Martian Year 25 and Martian Year 28. The atmospheric dynamics are significantly modified by the global dust storms, which induces significant changes in the thermospheric temperatures. The response of the model to the presence of both global dust storms is in good agreement with previous modeling results (Medvedev et al., Journal of Geophysical Research, 2013). As expected, the simulated ionosphere is also sensitive to the variability of the solar activity. Acknowledgemnt: Francisco González-Galindo is funded by a CSIC JAE-Doc contract financed by the European Social Fund

Coronal and chromospheric physics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jefferies, J. T.; Landman, D. A.; Orrall, F. Q.

1983-01-01

Achievements and completed results are discussed for investigations covering solar activity during the solar maximum mission and the solar maximum year; other studies of solar activity and variability; infrared and submillimeter photometry; solar-related atomic physics; coronal and transition region studies; prominence research; chromospheric research in quiet and active regions; solar dynamics; eclipse studies; and polarimetry and magnetic field measurements. Contributions were also made in defining the photometric filterograph instrument for the solar optical telescope, designing the combined filter spectrograph, and in expressing the scientific aims and implementation of the solar corona diagnostic mission.

Can we identify effects from the 11 year solar cycle in AIM PMC Data?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siskind, D. E.; Stevens, M. H.; Hervig, M. E.; Randall, C. E.

2012-12-01

One of the primary objectives of the AIM extended mission is to understand the solar cycle variation of Polar Mesospheric Clouds (PMCs). Complicating this problem have been two unexpected phenomena. First, it has become clear that PMCs vary greatly in response to meteorological variability propagating upwards from the stratosphere or teleconnecting from the opposite (winter) hemisphere. Second, the first 4 years of the AIM mission (2007-2010) corresponded to historically very low solar activity. Recently, solar activity has increased modestly; however, the problem remains of pulling out a weak signal (solar) against a noisy background (dynamics). There are two ways to reduce the geophysical noise. First, we note that due to the dynamically active Northern Hemisphere (NH) winter, the effects of meteorological teleconnections are greatest on Southern Hemisphere PMCs. By focusing on Northern Hemisphere PMCs, we get less dynamical variability. Second, it has been shown that by correlating PMC properties with stratospheric winter temperatures, a functional relationship between PMCs and dynamics can be established. In principle, deviations from this functional relationship could be interpreted as due to external forcing, i.e. from solar variability. Expectations are that clouds should decrease for higher levels of solar forcing. Surprisingly however, in 2011, the first year with higher solar activity, the SOFIE instrument on AIM saw more clouds in July than ever. We explore possible reasons for this anomaly, including the possibility of an enhancement in H2O from the launch of STS135 on July 8th. To date, 2012 also shows moderately higher solar activity, but without the contaminating effects of shuttle exhaust. We will evaluate whether PMCs were affected by solar activity in 2012. Acknowledgements: This work was sponsored by the NASA AIM Small Explorer program.

The technical analysis of the stock exchange and physics: Japanese candlesticks for solar activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dineva, C.; Atanasov, V.

2013-09-01

In this article, we use the Japanese candlesticks, a method popular in the technical analysis of the Stock/Forex markets and apply it to a variable in physics-the solar activity. This method is invented and used exclusively for economic analysis and its application to a physical problem produced unexpected results. We found that the Japanese candlesticks are convenient tool in the analysis of the variables in the physics of the Sun. Based on our observations, we differentiated a new cycle in the solar activity.

The solar magnetic activity band interaction and instabilities that shape quasi-periodic variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McIntosh, Scott W.; Leamon, Robert J.; Krista, Larisza D.; Title, Alan M.; Hudson, Hugh S.; Riley, Pete; Harder, Jerald W.; Kopp, Greg; Snow, Martin; Woods, Thomas N.; Kasper, Justin C.; Stevens, Michael L.; Ulrich, Roger K.

2015-04-01

Solar magnetism displays a host of variational timescales of which the enigmatic 11-year sunspot cycle is most prominent. Recent work has demonstrated that the sunspot cycle can be explained in terms of the intra- and extra-hemispheric interaction between the overlapping activity bands of the 22-year magnetic polarity cycle. Those activity bands appear to be driven by the rotation of the Sun's deep interior. Here we deduce that activity band interaction can qualitatively explain the `Gnevyshev Gap'--a well-established feature of flare and sunspot occurrence. Strong quasi-annual variability in the number of flares, coronal mass ejections, the radiative and particulate environment of the heliosphere is also observed. We infer that this secondary variability is driven by surges of magnetism from the activity bands. Understanding the formation, interaction and instability of these activity bands will considerably improve forecast capability in space weather and solar activity over a range of timescales.

Solar modulation of flood frequency in Central Europe during spring and summer on inter-annual to millennial time-scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Czymzik, M.; Muscheler, R.; Brauer, A.

2015-10-01

Solar influences on climate variability are one of the most controversially discussed topics in climate research. We analyze solar forcing of flood frequency in Central Europe on inter-annual to millennial time-scales using daily discharge data of River Ammer (southern Germany) back to AD 1926 and revisiting the 5500 year flood layer time-series from varved sediments of the downstream Lake Ammersee. Flood frequency in the discharge record is significantly correlated to changes in solar activity during solar cycles 16-23 (r = -0.47, p < 0.0001, n = 73). Flood layer frequency (n = 1501) in the sediment record depicts distinct multi-decadal variability and significant correlations to 10Be fluxes from a Greenland ice core (r = 0.45, p < 0.0001) and 14C production rates (r =0.36, p < 0.0001), proxy records of solar activity. Flood frequency is higher when solar activity is reduced. These correlations between flood frequency and solar activity might provide empirical support for the solar top-down mechanism expected to modify the mid-latitude storm tracks over Europe by model studies. A lag of flood frequency responses in the Ammer discharge record to changes in solar activity of about one to three years could be explained by a modelled ocean-atmosphere feedback delaying the atmospheric reaction to solar activity variations up to a few years.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Herdiwijaya, Dhani, E-mail: dhani@as.itb.ac.id; Arif, Johan; Nurzaman, Muhamad Zamzam

Solar activities consist of high energetic particle streams, electromagnetic radiation, magnetic and orbital gravitational forces. The well-know solar activity main indicator is the existence of sunspot which has mean variation in 11 years, named by solar cycle, allow for the above fluctuations. Solar activities are also related to the space weather affecting all planetary atmospheric variability, moreover to the Earth’s climate variability. Large extreme space and geophysical events (high magnitude earthquakes, explosive volcanic eruptions, magnetic storms, etc.) are hazards for humankind, infrastructure, economies, technology and the activities of civilization. With a growing world population, and with modern reliance on delicatemore » technological systems, human society is becoming increasingly vulnerable to natural hazardous events. The big question arises to the relation between solar forcing energy to the Earth’s global seismic activities. Estimates are needed for the long term occurrence-rate probabilities of these extreme natural hazardous events. We studied connectivity from yearly seismic activities that refer to and sunspot number within the solar cycle 20 to 23 of year 1960 to 2013 (53 years). We found clear evidences that in general high magnitude earthquake events and their depth were related to the low solar activity.« less

Measurements of the Solar Spectral Irradiance Variability over Solar Cycles 21 to 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woods, T. N.

2017-12-01

The solar irradiance is the primary natural energy input into Earth's atmosphere and climate system. Understanding the long-term variations of the solar spectral irradiance (SSI) over time scales of the 11-year solar activity cycle and longer is critical for most Sun-climate research topics. There are satellite measurements of the SSI since the 1970s that contribute to understanding the solar cycle variability over Solar Cycles 21 to 24. A limiting factor for the accuracy of these results is the uncertainties for the instrument degradation corrections, for which there are fairly large corrections relative to the amount of solar cycle variability at some wavelengths. A summary of these satellite SSI measurements, which are primarily in the ultraviolet and only recently in the visible and near infrared, will be presented. Examining SSI trends using a new analysis technique is helping to identify some uncorrected instrumental trends, which once applied to the SSI trends has the potential to provide more accurate solar cycle variability results. This new technique examines the SSI trends at different levels of solar activity to provide long-term trends in a SSI record, and one of the most common components of these derived long-term trends is a downward trend that we attribute to being most likely from uncorrected instrument degradation. Examples of this analysis will be presented for some of the satellite SSI measurements to demonstrate this new technique and how it has potential to improve the understanding of solar cycle variability and to clarify the uncertainties of the trends.

Influence of solar variability on the occurrence of central European weather types from 1763 to 2009

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwander, Mikhaël; Rohrer, Marco; Brönnimann, Stefan; Malik, Abdul

2017-09-01

The impact of solar variability on weather and climate in central Europe is still not well understood. In this paper we use a new time series of daily weather types to analyse the influence of the 11-year solar cycle on the tropospheric weather of central Europe. We employ a novel, daily weather type classification over the period 1763-2009 and investigate the occurrence frequency of weather types under low, moderate, and high solar activity level. Results show a tendency towards fewer days with westerly and west-southwesterly flow over central Europe under low solar activity. In parallel, the occurrence of northerly and easterly types increases. For the 1958-2009 period, a more detailed view can be gained from reanalysis data. Mean sea level pressure composites under low solar activity also show a reduced zonal flow, with an increase of the mean blocking frequency between Iceland and Scandinavia. Weather types and reanalysis data show that the 11-year solar cycle influences the late winter atmospheric circulation over central Europe with colder (warmer) conditions under low (high) solar activity.

Jovian Northern Ethane Aurora and the Solar Cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kostiuk,T.; Livengood, T.; Fast, K.; Buhl, D.; Goldstein, J.; Hewagama, T.

1999-01-01

Thermal infrared auroral spectra from Jupiter's North polar region have been collected from 1979 to 1998 in a continuing study of long-term variability in the northern thermal IR aurora, using C2H6 emission lines near 12 microns as a probe. Data from Voyager I and 2 IRIS measurements and ground based spectral measurements were analyzed using the same model atmosphere to provide a consistent relative comparison. A retrieved equivalent mole fraction was used to compare the observed integrated emission. Short term (days), medium term (months) and long term (years) variability in the ethane emission was observed. The variability Of C2H6 emission intensities was compared to Jupiter's seasonal cycle and the solar activity cycle. A positive correlation appears to exist, with significantly greater emission and short term variability during solar maxima. Observations on 60 N latitude during increased solar activity in 1979, 1989, and most recently in 1998 show up to 5 times brighter integrated line emission of C2H6 near the north polar "hot spot" (150-210 latitude) than from the north quiescent region. Significantly lower enhancement was observed during periods of lower solar activity in 1982, 1983, 1993, and 1995. Possible sources and mechanisms for the enhancement and variability will be discussed.

Solar Effects on Global Climate Due to Cosmic Rays and Solar Energetic Particles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Turco, R. P.; Raeder, J.; DAuria, R.

2005-01-01

Although the work reported here does not directly connect solar variability with global climate change, this research establishes a plausible quantitative causative link between observed solar activity and apparently correlated variations in terrestrial climate parameters. Specifically, we have demonstrated that ion-mediated nucleation of atmospheric particles is a likely, and likely widespread, phenomenon that relates solar variability to changes in the microphysical properties of clouds. To investigate this relationship, we have constructed and applied a new model describing the formation and evolution of ionic clusters under a range of atmospheric conditions throughout the lower atmosphere. The activation of large ionic clusters into cloud nuclei is predicted to be favorable in the upper troposphere and mesosphere, and possibly in the lower stratosphere. The model developed under this grant needs to be extended to include additional cluster families, and should be incorporated into microphysical models to further test the cause-and-effect linkages that may ultimately explain key aspects of the connections between solar variability and climate.

Solar Sprint

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tabor, Richard; Anderson, Stephen

2007-01-01

In the "Solar Sprint" activity, students design, test, and race a solar-powered car built with Legos. The use of ratios is incorporated to simulate the actual work of scientists and engineers. This method encourages fourth-grade students to think about multiple variables and stimulates their curiosity when an activity doesn't come out as…

The solar magnetic activity band interaction and instabilities that shape quasi-periodic variability

PubMed Central

McIntosh, Scott W.; Leamon, Robert J.; Krista, Larisza D.; Title, Alan M.; Hudson, Hugh S.; Riley, Pete; Harder, Jerald W.; Kopp, Greg; Snow, Martin; Woods, Thomas N.; Kasper, Justin C.; Stevens, Michael L.; Ulrich, Roger K.

2015-01-01

Solar magnetism displays a host of variational timescales of which the enigmatic 11-year sunspot cycle is most prominent. Recent work has demonstrated that the sunspot cycle can be explained in terms of the intra- and extra-hemispheric interaction between the overlapping activity bands of the 22-year magnetic polarity cycle. Those activity bands appear to be driven by the rotation of the Sun's deep interior. Here we deduce that activity band interaction can qualitatively explain the ‘Gnevyshev Gap'—a well-established feature of flare and sunspot occurrence. Strong quasi-annual variability in the number of flares, coronal mass ejections, the radiative and particulate environment of the heliosphere is also observed. We infer that this secondary variability is driven by surges of magnetism from the activity bands. Understanding the formation, interaction and instability of these activity bands will considerably improve forecast capability in space weather and solar activity over a range of timescales. PMID:25849045

Solar Spectral Irradiance Reconstruction over 9 Millennia from a Composite 14C and 10Be Series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, C. J.; Usoskin, I. G.; Krivova, N.; Kovaltsov, G.; Solanki, S. K.

2017-12-01

The Sun is the main external energy source to the Earth and thus the knowledge of solar variability on different time scales is important for understanding the solar influence on the terrestrial atmosphere and climate. The overall energy input and its spectral distribution are described by the total (TSI) and spectral (SSI) solar irradiance, respectively. Direct measurements of the solar irradiance provide information on solar variability on the decadal and shorter time scales, while the sunspot number record covers four centuries. On yet longer time scales only indirect proxies can be used, such as the concentrations of the cosmogenic isotopes 10Be and 14C in terrestrial archives. These isotopes are produced in the terrestrial atmosphere by impinging cosmic rays, whose flux is modulated by solar activity. Therefore the isotope data retrieved from various natural archives around the globe show a very high degree of similarity reflecting changes in the solar activity. Nevertheless, significant short-term deviations can be observed due to the different geochemical production processes and local climatic conditions. We will present the newest TSI/SSI reconstruction over the last 9000 years based on a new consistent composite multi-isotope proxy series. The solar irradiance reconstruction reveals the global and robust pattern of solar variability in the past.

Fluctuations in Tree Ring Cellulose d18O during the Little Ice Age Correlate with Solar Activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamaguchi, Y. T.; Yokoyama, Y.; Miyahara, H.; Nakatsuka, T.

2008-12-01

The Maunder Minimum (AD1645-1715), when sunspots became exceedingly rare, is known to coincide with the coldest period during the Little Ice Age. This is a useful period to investigate possible linkage between solar activity and climate because variation in solar activity was different from that of today. The solar cycle length was longer (14 and 28 years) than that of today (11 and 22 years) hence any climate archives that have similar periodic changes could be separated from other internal climate forcing. We have reported that Greenland temperature variations coincided with decadal-scale variability in solar activity during the Maunder Minimum (Miyahara et al. 2008). Here we report interannual and intra-annual relative humidity (RH) variations in central Japan during that period, using tree ring cellulose d18O in a 382-year-old Japanese cedar tree (Cryptomeria japonica). The isotopic composition of tree rings can be a powerful tool to study the relationship between solar activity and climate, because we can directly compare solar activity (D14C) and climate (d18O) with little dating error. The climate proxy obtained using tree ring cellulose d18O is correlated both negatively and positively with RH and d18O in precipitation, respectively. Since d18O in precipitation is negatively correlated with the amount of precipitation in the monsoon area, tree ring cellulose d18O can be a reliable proxy for past RH and/or amount of precipitation in the area of the interest. Tree ring cellulose d18O of the cedar tree during AD1938-1998 in fact correlates significantly with the mean RH in June in central Japan. Tree ring d18O inferred RH variability during the Maunder Minimum shows distinct high RH spikes with an approximate 14-year quasiperiodicity. All nine solar minima during AD1640-1756 deduced from tree ring D14C coincided with high RH spikes, and seven of which coincided within 1-year. Interannual RH variations also coincided with Greenland temperature during this period. These results suggest that weakening of solar activity at solar minima caused distinct hemispheric scale climate change during the Maunder Minimum. We discuss the mechanism in which the solar activity variation caused the climate change, based on intra-annual RH variability and further data analysis of interannual RH variability. H. Miyahara et al., Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 272, 1-2, 290-295 (2008).

The Effects of Solar Variability on Earth's Climate: A Workshop Report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2012-01-01

Solar irradiance, the flux of the Sun s output directed toward Earth, is Earth s main energy source.1 The Sun itself varies on several timescales over billions of years its luminosity increases as it evolves on the main sequence toward becoming a red giant; about every 11 years its sunspot activity cycles; and within just minutes flares can erupt and release massive amounts of energy. Most of the fluctuations from tens to thousands of years are associated with changes in the solar magnetic field. The focus of the National Research Council's September 2011 workshop on solar variability and Earth's climate, and of this summary report, is mainly magnetically driven variability and its possible connection with Earth's climate variations in the past 10,000 years. Even small variations in the amount or distribution of energy received at Earth can have a major influence on Earth's climate when they persist for decades. However, no satellite measurements have indicated that solar output and variability have contributed in a significant way to the increase in global mean temperature in the last 50 years. Locally, however, correlations between solar activity and variations in average weather may stand out beyond the global trend; such has been argued to be the case for the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, even in the present day. A key area of inquiry deals with establishing a unified record of the solar output and solar-modified particles that extends from the present to the prescientific past. The workshop focused attention on the need for a better understanding of the links between indices of solar activity such as cosmogenic isotopes and solar irradiance. A number of presentations focused on the timescale of the solar cycle and of the satellite record, and on the problem of extending this record back in time. Highlights included a report of progress on pyroheliometer calibration, leading to greater confidence in the time history and future stability of total solar irradiance (TSI), and surprising results on changes in spectral irradiance over the last solar cycle, which elicited spirited discussion. New perspectives on connections between features of the quiet and active areas of the photosphere and variations in TSI were also presented, emphasizing the importance of developing better understanding in order to extrapolate back in time using activity indices. Workshop participants reviews highlighted difficulties as well as causes for optimism in current understanding of the cosmogenic isotope record and the use of observed variability in Sun-like stars in reconstructing variations in TSI occurring on lower frequencies than the sunspot cycle. The workshop succeeded in bringing together informed, focused presentations on major drivers of the Sun-climate connection. The importance of the solar cycle as a unique quasi-periodic probe of climate responses on a timescale between the seasonal and Milankovitch cycles was recognized in several presentations. The signal need only be detectable, not dominant, for it to play this role of a useful probe. Some workshop participants also found encouraging progress in the top-down perspective, according to which solar variability affects surface climate by first perturbing the stratosphere, which then forces the troposphere and surface. This work is now informing and being informed by research on tropospheric responses to the Antarctic ozone hole and volcanic aerosols. In contrast to the top-down perspective is the bottom-up view that the interaction of solar energy with the ocean and surface leads to changes in dynamics and temperature. During the discussion of how dynamical air-sea coupling in the tropical Pacific and solar variability interact from a bottom-up perspective, several participants remarked on the wealth of open research questions in the dynamics of the climatic response to TSI and spectral variability. The discussion of the paleoclimate record emphasized that the link between solar varbility and Earth s climate is multifaceted and that some components are understood better than others. According to two presenters on paleoclimate, there is a need to study the idiosyncrasies of each key proxy record. Yet they also emphasized that there may be an emerging pattern of paleoclimate change coincident with periods of solar activity and inactivity, but only on long timescales of multiple decades to millennia. Several speakers discussed the effects of particle events and cosmic-ray variability. These are all areas of exciting fundamental research; however, they have not yet led to conclusive evidence for significant related climate effects. The key problem of attribution of climate variability on the timescales of the Little Ice Age and the Maunder Minimum were directly addressed in several presentations. Several workshop participants remarked that the combination of solar, paleoclimatic, and climate modeling research has the potential to dramatically improve the credibility of these attribution studies.

Periodicities observed on solar flux index (F10.7) during geomagnetic disturbances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adhikari, B.; Narayan, C.; Chhatkuli, D. N.

2017-12-01

Solar activities change within the period of 11 years. Sometimes the greatest event occurs in the period of solar maxima and the lowest activity occurs in the period of solar minimum. During the time period of solar activity sunspots number will vary. A 10.7 cm solar flux measurement is a determination of the strength of solar radio emission. The solar flux index is more often used for the prediction and monitoring of the solar activity. This study mainly focused on the variation on solar flux index and amount of electromagnetic wave in the atmosphere. Both seasonal and yearly variation on solar F10.7 index. We also analyzed the dataset obatained from riometer.Both instruments show seasonal and yearly variations. We also observed the solar cycle dependence on solar flux index and found a strong dependence on solar activity. Results also show that solar intensities higher during the rising phase of solar cycle. We also observed periodicities on solar flux index using wavelet analysis. Through this analysis, it was found that the power intensities of solar flux index show a high spectral variability.

Predicting the La Niña of 2020-21: Termination of Solar Cycles and Correlated Variance in Solar and Atmospheric Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leamon, R. J.; McIntosh, S. W.

2017-12-01

Establishing a solid physical connection between solar and tropospheric variability has posed a considerable challenge across the spectrum of Earth-system science. Over the past few years a new picture to describe solar variability has developed, based on observing, understanding and tracing the progression, interaction and intrinsic variability of the magnetized activity bands that belong to the Sun's 22-year magnetic activity cycle. The intra- and extra-hemispheric interaction of these magnetic bands appear to explain the occurrence of decadal scale variability that primarily manifests itself in the sunspot cycle. However, on timescales of ten months or so, those bands posses their own internal variability with an amplitude of the same order of magnitude as the decadal scale. The latter have been tied to the existence of magnetized Rossby waves in the solar convection zone that result in surges of magnetic flux emergence that correspondingly modulate our star's radiative and particulate output. One of the most important events in the progression of these bands is their (apparent) termination at the solar equator that signals a global increase in magnetic flux emergence that becomes the new solar cycle. We look at the particulate and radiative implications of these termination points, their temporal recurrence and signature, from the Sun to the Earth, and show the correlated signature of solar cycle termination events and major oceanic oscillations that extend back many decades. A combined one-two punch of reduced particulate forcing and increased radiative forcing that result from the termination of one solar cycle and rapid blossoming of another correlates strongly with a shift from El Niño to La Niña conditions in the Pacific Ocean. This shift does not occur at solar minima, nor solar maxima, but at a particular, non-periodic, time in between. The failure to identify these termination points, and their relative irregularity, have inhibited a correlation to be observed and physical processes to be studied. This result potentially opens the door to a broader understanding of solar variability on our planet and its weather. Ongoing tracking of solar magnetic band migration indicates that Cycle 24 will terminate in the 2020 timeframe and thus we may expect to see an attendant shift to La Niña conditions at that time.

Long-term solar activity explored with wavelet methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lundstedt, H.; Liszka, L.; Lundin, R.; Muscheler, R.

2006-03-01

Long-term solar activity has been studied with a set of wavelet methods. The following indicators of long-term solar activity were used; the group sunspot number, the sunspot number, and the 14C production rate. Scalograms showed the very long-term scales of 2300 years (Hallstat cycle), 900-1000 years, 400-500 years, and 200 years (de Vries cycle). Scalograms of a newly-constructed 14C production rate showed interesting solar modulation during the Maunder minimum. Multi-Resolution Analysis (MRA) revealed the modulation in detail, as well as peaks of solar activity not seen in the sunspot number. In both the group sunspot number scalogram and the 14C production rate scalogram, a process appeared, starting or ending in late 1700. This process has not been discussed before. Its solar origin is unclear.

The group sunspot number ampligram and the sunspot number ampligram showed the Maunder and the Dalton minima, and the period of high solar activity, which already started about 1900 and then decreased again after mid 1990. The decrease starts earlier for weaker components. Also, weak semiperiodic activity was found.

Time Scale Spectra (TSS) showed both deterministic and stochastic processes behind the variability of the long-term solar activity. TSS of the 14C production rate, group sunspot number and Mt. Wilson sunspot index and plage index were compared in an attempt to interpret the features and processes behind the long-term variability.

How calibration and reference spectra affect the accuracy of absolute soft X-ray solar irradiance measured by the SDO/EVE/ESP during high solar activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Didkovsky, Leonid; Wieman, Seth; Woods, Thomas

2016-10-01

The Extreme ultraviolet Spectrophotometer (ESP), one of the channels of SDO's Extreme ultraviolet Variability Experiment (EVE), measures solar irradiance in several EUV and soft x-ray (SXR) bands isolated using thin-film filters and a transmission diffraction grating, and includes a quad-diode detector positioned at the grating zeroth-order to observe in a wavelength band from about 0.1 to 7.0 nm. The quad diode signal also includes some contribution from shorter wavelength in the grating's first-order and the ratio of zeroth-order to first-order signal depends on both source geometry, and spectral distribution. For example, radiometric calibration of the ESP zeroth-order at the NIST SURF BL-2 with a near-parallel beam provides a different zeroth-to-first-order ratio than modeled for solar observations. The relative influence of "uncalibrated" first-order irradiance during solar observations is a function of the solar spectral irradiance and the locations of large Active Regions or solar flares. We discuss how the "uncalibrated" first-order "solar" component and the use of variable solar reference spectra affect determination of absolute SXR irradiance which currently may be significantly overestimated during high solar activity.

Evidence for distinct modes of solar activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Usoskin, I. G.; Hulot, G.; Gallet, Y.; Roth, R.; Licht, A.; Joos, F.; Kovaltsov, G. A.; Thébault, E.; Khokhlov, A.

2014-02-01

Aims: The Sun shows strong variability in its magnetic activity, from Grand minima to Grand maxima, but the nature of the variability is not fully understood, mostly because of the insufficient length of the directly observed solar activity records and of uncertainties related to long-term reconstructions. Here we present a new adjustment-free reconstruction of solar activity over three millennia and study its different modes. Methods: We present a new adjustment-free, physical reconstruction of solar activity over the past three millennia, using the latest verified carbon cycle, 14C production, and archeomagnetic field models. This great improvement allowed us to study different modes of solar activity at an unprecedented level of details. Results: The distribution of solar activity is clearly bi-modal, implying the existence of distinct modes of activity. The main regular activity mode corresponds to moderate activity that varies in a relatively narrow band between sunspot numbers 20 and 67. The existence of a separate Grand minimum mode with reduced solar activity, which cannot be explained by random fluctuations of the regular mode, is confirmed at a high confidence level. The possible existence of a separate Grand maximum mode is also suggested, but the statistics is too low to reach a confident conclusion. Conclusions: The Sun is shown to operate in distinct modes - a main general mode, a Grand minimum mode corresponding to an inactive Sun, and a possible Grand maximum mode corresponding to an unusually active Sun. These results provide important constraints for both dynamo models of Sun-like stars and investigations of possible solar influence on Earth's climate. Data are only available at the CDS via anonymous ftp to http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr (ftp://130.79.128.5) or via http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr/viz-bin/qcat?J/A+A/562/L10

UV solar irradiance in observations and the NRLSSI and SATIRE-S models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yeo, K. L.; Ball, W. T.; Krivova, N. A.; Solanki, S. K.; Unruh, Y. C.; Morrill, J.

2015-08-01

Total solar irradiance and UV spectral solar irradiance has been monitored since 1978 through a succession of space missions. This is accompanied by the development of models aimed at replicating solar irradiance by relating the variability to solar magnetic activity. The Naval Research Laboratory Solar Spectral Irradiance (NRLSSI) and Spectral And Total Irradiance REconstruction for the Satellite era (SATIRE-S) models provide the most comprehensive reconstructions of total and spectral solar irradiance over the period of satellite observation currently available. There is persistent controversy between the various measurements and models in terms of the wavelength dependence of the variation over the solar cycle, with repercussions on our understanding of the influence of UV solar irradiance variability on the stratosphere. We review the measurement and modeling of UV solar irradiance variability over the period of satellite observation. The SATIRE-S reconstruction is consistent with spectral solar irradiance observations where they are reliable. It is also supported by an independent, empirical reconstruction of UV spectral solar irradiance based on Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite/Solar Ultraviolet Spectral Irradiance Monitor measurements from an earlier study. The weaker solar cycle variability produced by NRLSSI between 300 and 400 nm is not evident in any available record. We show that although the method employed to construct NRLSSI is principally sound, reconstructed solar cycle variability is detrimentally affected by the uncertainty in the SSI observations it draws upon in the derivation. Based on our findings, we recommend, when choosing between the two models, the use of SATIRE-S for climate studies.

Heliospheric Modulation of Galactic Cosmic Rays; Diurnal Variability Abstract Details

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalu, D. F.; Okpala, K. C.

2017-12-01

We have studied the variability of Cosmic rays flux during solar quiet days at mid and high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. By using the five (5) quietest days for each month and the five disturbed days for each month, the monthly mean diurnal variation of cosmic ray anisotropy have been derived for the period 1999-2015, which covers part of cycles 23, and cycle 24. This study seeks to understand the heliospheric contribution to the variation of these Cosmic rays on quietest days, three stations (Inuvik, Moscow, Rome) Neutron Monitors were employed. This study seeks to understand the important features of the high latitude and mid latitude diurnal wave, and how solar and geomagnetic activity may be influencing the wave characteristics. Cosmic ray wave characteristics were obtained by discrete Fourier transform (DFT). The mean, diurnal amplitude, phase and dispersion for each month's diurnal wave were calculated and profiled. There was clear indication that the terrestrial effect on the variability of the monthly mean was more associated with geomagnetic activity rather than rigidity of the cosmic rays. Correlation of the time series of these wave characteristic with solar and geomagnetic activity index showed better association with solar activity.

Patterns of Variation for the Sun and Sun-like Stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Radick, Richard R.; Lockwood, G. Wesley; Henry, Gregory W.; Hall, Jeffrey C.; Pevtsov, Alexei A.

2018-03-01

We compare patterns of variation for the Sun and 72 Sun-like stars by combining total and spectral solar irradiance measurements between 2003 and 2017 from the SORCE satellite, Strömgren b, y stellar photometry between 1993 and 2017 from Fairborn Observatory, and solar and stellar chromospheric Ca II H+K emission observations between 1992 and 2016 from Lowell Observatory. The new data and their analysis strengthen the relationships found previously between chromospheric and brightness variability on the decadal timescale of the solar activity cycle. Both chromospheric H+K and photometric b, y variability among Sun-like stars are related to average chromospheric activity by power laws on this timescale. Young active stars become fainter as their H+K emission increases, and older, less active, more Sun-age stars tend to show a pattern of direct correlation between photometric and chromospheric emission variations. The directly correlated pattern between total solar irradiance and chromospheric Ca II emission variations shown by the Sun appears to extend also to variations in the Strömgren b, y portion of the solar spectrum. Although the Sun does not differ strongly from its stellar age and spectral class mates in the activity and variability characteristics that we have now studied for over three decades, it may be somewhat unusual in two respects: (1) its comparatively smooth, regular activity cycle, and (2) its rather low photometric brightness variation relative to its chromospheric activity level and variation, perhaps indicating that facular emission and sunspot darkening are especially well-balanced on the Sun.

A regime shift in the Sun-Climate connection with the end of the Medieval Climate Anomaly.

PubMed

Smirnov, D A; Breitenbach, S F M; Feulner, G; Lechleitner, F A; Prufer, K M; Baldini, J U L; Marwan, N; Kurths, J

2017-09-11

Understanding the influence of changes in solar activity on Earth's climate and distinguishing it from other forcings, such as volcanic activity, remains a major challenge for palaeoclimatology. This problem is best approached by investigating how these variables influenced past climate conditions as recorded in high precision paleoclimate archives. In particular, determining if the climate system response to these forcings changes through time is critical. Here we use the Wiener-Granger causality approach along with well-established cross-correlation analysis to investigate the causal relationship between solar activity, volcanic forcing, and climate as reflected in well-established Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) rainfall proxy records from Yok Balum Cave, southern Belize. Our analysis reveals a consistent influence of volcanic activity on regional Central American climate over the last two millennia. However, the coupling between solar variability and local climate varied with time, with a regime shift around 1000-1300 CE after which the solar-climate coupling weakened considerably.

Statistical Methods for Quantifying the Variability of Solar Wind Transients of All Sizes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tindale, E.; Chapman, S. C.

2016-12-01

The solar wind is inherently variable across a wide range of timescales, from small-scale turbulent fluctuations to the 11-year periodicity induced by the solar cycle. Each solar cycle is unique, and this change in overall cycle activity is coupled from the Sun to Earth via the solar wind, leading to long-term trends in space weather. Our work [Tindale & Chapman, 2016] applies novel statistical methods to solar wind transients of all sizes, to quantify the variability of the solar wind associated with the solar cycle. We use the same methods to link solar wind observations with those on the Sun and Earth. We use Wind data to construct quantile-quantile (QQ) plots comparing the statistical distributions of multiple commonly used solar wind-magnetosphere coupling parameters between the minima and maxima of solar cycles 23 and 24. We find that in each case the distribution is multicomponent, ranging from small fluctuations to extreme values, with the same functional form at all phases of the solar cycle. The change in PDF is captured by a simple change of variables, which is independent of the PDF model. Using this method we can quantify the quietness of the cycle 24 maximum, identify which variable drives the changing distribution of composite parameters such as ɛ, and we show that the distribution of ɛ is less sensitive to changes in its extreme values than that of its constituents. After demonstrating the QQ method on solar wind data, we extend the analysis to include solar and magnetospheric data spanning the same time period. We focus on GOES X-ray flux and WDC AE index data. Finally, having studied the statistics of transients across the full distribution, we apply the same method to time series of extreme bursts in each variable. Using these statistical tools, we aim to track the solar cycle-driven variability from the Sun through the solar wind and into the Earth's magnetosphere. Tindale, E. and S.C. Chapman (2016), Geophys. Res. Lett., 43(11), doi: 10.1002/2016GL068920.

Application of solar max ACRIM data to analyze solar-driven climatic variability on Earth

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hoffert, M. I.

1986-01-01

Terrestrial climatic effects associated with solar variability have been proposed for at least a century, but could not be assessed quantitatively owing to observational uncertainities in solar flux variations. Measurements from 1980 to 1984 by the Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor (ACRIM), capable of resolving fluctuations above the sensible atmosphere less than 0.1% of the solar constant, permit direct albeit preliminary assessments of solar forcing effects on global temperatures during this period. The global temperature response to ACRIM-measured fluctuations was computed from 1980 to 1985 using the NYU transient climate model including thermal inertia effects of the world ocean; and compared the results with observations of recent temperature trends. Monthly mean ACRIM-driven global surface temperature fluctuations computed with the climate model are an order of magnitude smaller, of order 0.01 C. In constrast, global mean surface temperature observations indicate an approx. 0.1 C increase during this period. Solar variability is therefore likely to have been a minor factor in global climate change during this period compared with variations in atmospheric albedo, greenhouse gases and internal self-inducedoscillations. It was not possible to extend the applicability of the measured flux variations to longer periods since a possible correlation of luminosity with solar annual activity is not supported by statistical analysis. The continuous monitoring of solar flux by satellite-based instruments over timescales of 20 years or more comparable to timescales for thermal relaxation of the oceans and of the solar cycle itself is needed to resolve the question of long-term solar variation effects on climate.

Middle Atmosphere Program. Handbook for MAP, volume 29. Part 1: Extended Abstracts, International Symposium on Solar Activity Forcing of the Middle Atmosphere. Part 2: MASH Workshop

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lastovicka, Jan (Editor); Miles, Thomas (Editor); Oneill, Alan (Editor)

1989-01-01

The proceedings of the symposium is presented. Eight different sessions were presented: (1) Papers generally related to the subject; (2) Papers on the influence of the Quasi Biennial Oscillation; (3) Papers on the influence of the solar electromagnetic radiation variability; (4) Papers on the solar wind and high energy particle influence; (5) Papers on atmospheric circulation; (6) Papers on atmospheric electricity; (7) Papers on lower ionospheric variability; and (8) Solar posters, which are not included in this compilation.

Solar flux variability and the lifetimes of cometary H2O and OH

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Budzien, S. A.; Festou, M. C.; Feldman, P. D.

1994-01-01

A solar EUV/FUV flux model based on recent SUSIM solar observations is presented. It is shown that both the fluxes and variabilities of the model are more consistent with SME and SUSIM solar spectrum measurements than those of the SERF1 model. It is calculated that photodissociation accounts for about 80 percent of the H2O destruction rate, while photoionization and solar wind particle interactions each account for about 10 percent of the H2O destruction. The calculated H2O and OH lifetimes against direct photodissociation both vary by 30 percent with solar activity. The major destruction channel for OH is predissociation, while direct photodissociation and solar wind interactions account for roughly 30 and 10 percent of the destruction rate, respectively.

High Resolution Studies of the Structure of the Solar Atmosphere

DTIC Science & Technology

1993-08-04

two-fluid solar wind model", submitted to J. Geophys. Res., August 1993. M. B. Arndt, S. R. Habbal, and M. Karovska , "Discrete and localized nature of...the variable emission from active regions", submitted to Solar Phys., August 1993. M. Karovska and F. Blundell, "The fine structure at the limb in a...coronal hole", submitted to Ap. J, August 1993. M. Karovska , M. Arndt and S. R. Habbal, "Spatial and temporal variability of the emission at the limb

Observations of hysteresis in solar cycle variations among seven solar activity indicators

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bachmann, Kurt T.; White, Oran R.

1994-01-01

We show that smoothed time series of 7 indices of solar activity exhibit significant solar cycle dependent differences in their relative variations during the past 20 years. In some cases these observed hysteresis patterns start to repeat over more than one solar cycle, giving evidence that this is a normal feature of solar variability. Among the indices we study, we find that the hysteresis effects are approximately simple phase shifts, and we quantify these phase shifts in terms of lag times behind the leading index, the International Sunspot Number. Our measured lag times range from less than one month to greater than four months and can be much larger than lag times estimated from short-term variations of these same activity indices during the emergence and decay of major active regions. We argue that hysteresis represents a real delay in the onset and decline of solar activity and is an important clue in the search for physical processes responsible for changing solar emission at various wavelengths.

If We Can't Predict Solar Cycle 24, What About Solar Cycle 34?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pesnell. William Dean

2008-01-01

Predictions of solar activity in Solar Cycle 24 range from 50% larger than SC 23 to the onset of a Grand Minimum. Because low levels of solar activity are associated with global cooling in paleoclimate and isotopic records, anticipating these extremes is required in any longterm extrapolation of climate variability. Climate models often look forward 100 or more years, which would mean 10 solar cycles into the future. Predictions of solar activity are derived from a number of methods, most of which, such as climatology and physics-based models, will be familiar to atmospheric scientists. More than 50 predictions of the maximum amplitude of SC 24 published before solar minimum will be discussed. Descriptions of several methods that result in the extreme predictions and some anticipation of even longer term predictions will be presented.

Cloud cover anomalies at middle latitudes: Links to troposphere dynamics and solar variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Veretenenko, S.; Ogurtsov, M.

2016-11-01

In this work we study links between low cloud anomalies (LCA) at middle latitudes of the Northern and Southern hemispheres and galactic cosmic ray (GCR) variations used as a proxy of solar variability on the decadal time scale. It was shown that these links are not direct, but realized through GCR/solar activity phenomena influence on the development of extratropical baric systems (cyclones and troughs) which form cloud field. The violation of a positive correlation between LCA and GCR intensity which was observed in the 1980s-1990s occurred simultaneously in the Northern and Southern hemispheres in the early 2000s and coincided with the sign reversal of GCR effects on troposphere circulation. It was suggested that a possible reason for the correlation reversal between cyclonic activity at middle latitudes and GCR fluxes is the change of the stratospheric polar vortex intensity which influences significantly the troposphere-stratosphere coupling. The evidences for a noticeable weakening of the polar vortices in the Arctic and Antarctic stratosphere in the early 2000s are provided. The results obtained suggest an important role of the polar vortex evolution as a reason for a temporal variability of solar activity effects on the lower atmosphere.

Characteristics of nighttime E-region over Arecibo: Dependence on solar flux and geomagnetic variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raizada, Shikha; Brum, Christiano G. M.; Mathews, John D.; Gonzalez, Cristina; Franco, Efmi

2018-04-01

Electron concentration (Ne) inferred from Incoherent Scatter Radar (ISR) measurements has been used to determine the influence of solar flux and geomagnetic activity in the ionospheric E-region over Arecibo Observatory (AO). The approach is based on the determination of column integrated Ne, referred to as E-region total electron content (ErTEC) between 80 and 150 km altitude regions. The results discussed in this work are for the AO nighttime period. The study reveals higher ErTEC values during the low solar flux periods for all the seasons except for summer period. It is found that the E-region column abundance is higher in equinox periods than in the winter for low solar activity conditions. The column integrated Ne during the post-sunset/pre-sunrise periods always exceeds the midnight minima, independent of season or solar activity. This behavior has been attributed to the variations in the coupling processes from the F-region. The response of ErTEC to the geomagnetic variability is also examined for different solar flux conditions and seasons. During high solar flux periods, changes in Kp cause an ErTEC increase in summer and equinox, while producing a negative storm-like effect during the winter. Variations in ErTEC due to geomagnetic activity during low solar flux periods produce maximum variability in the E-region during equinox periods, while resulting in an increase/decrease in ErTEC before local midnight during the winter/summer periods, respectively.

Testing the potential of 10Be in varved sediments from two lakes for solar activity reconstruction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Czymzik, Markus; Muscheler, Raimund; Brauer, Achim; Adolphi, Florian; Ott, Florian; Kienel, Ulrike; Dräger, Nadine; Slowinski, Michal; Aldahan, Ala; Possnert, Göran

2015-04-01

The potential of 10Be in annually laminated (varved) lake sediments for solar activity reconstruction is, to date, largely unexplored. It is hypothesized that 10Be contents in sediments from well-chosen lakes reflect the solar induced atmospheric production signal. The varved nature of these archives provides the chance to establish solar activity time-series with very high temporal precision. However, so far solar activity reconstruction from 10Be in varved lake sediments is hampered due to a lack of detailed knowledge of the process chain from production in the atmosphere to deposition on the lake floor. Calibrating 10Be time-series from varved lake sediments against complementary proxy records from the same sediment archive as well as instrumental meteorological and solar activity data will allow a process-based understanding of 10Be deposition in these lakes and a quantitative evaluation of their potential for solar activity reconstruction. 10Be concentration and flux time-series at annual resolution were constructed for the period 1983 to 2007 (approx. solar cycles 22 and 23) conducting accelerator mass spectrometry and varve chronology on varved sediments of Lakes Tiefer See and Czechowski, located on an east-west transect at a distance of about 450 km in the lowlands of northern-central Europe. 10Be concentrations vary between 0.9 and 1.8*108atoms/g, with a mean of 1.3*108atoms/g in Lake Tiefer See and between 0.6 and 1.6*108atoms/g, with a mean of 1*108atoms/g in Lake Czechowski. Calculated mean 10Be flux is 2.3*108atoms/cm2/year for Lake Tiefer See and 0.7*108atoms/cm2/year for Lake Czechowski. Calibrating the 10Be time-series against corresponding geochemical μ-XRF profiles, varve thickness and total organic carbon records as well as precipitation data from the nearby stations Schwerin for Lake Tiefer See and Koscierzyna for Lake Czechowski and a neutron monitor record of solar activity suggests (1) a complex interaction of varying processes influencing 10Be deposition in both lakes and (2) that neither 10Be concentrations nor fluxes are the most suitable indicator of solar variability alone. Multiple regression analyses indicate that the combined 10Be concentration and flux time-series account for about 80% (Tiefer See) and 40% (Lake Czechowski) of the variability in the neutron monitor record, sufficient to reconstruct variability related to the 11-year solar cycle.

Photospheric activity of the Sun with VIRGO and GOLF. Comparison with standard activity proxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salabert, D.; García, R. A.; Jiménez, A.; Bertello, L.; Corsaro, E.; Pallé, P. L.

2017-12-01

We study the variability of solar activity using new photospheric proxies originally developed for the analysis of stellar magnetism with the CoRoT and Kepler photometric observations. These proxies were obtained by tracking the temporal modulations in the observations associated with the spots and magnetic features as the Sun rotates. We analyzed 21 yr of observations, spanning solar cycles 23 and 24, collected by the space-based photometric VIRGO and radial velocity GOLF instruments on board the SoHO satellite. We then calculated the photospheric activity proxy Sph is for each of the three VIRGO photometers and the associated Svel proxy from the radial velocity GOLF observations. Comparisons with several standard solar activity proxies sensitive to different layers of the Sun demonstrate that these new activity proxies, Sph and Svel, provide a new manner to monitor solar activity. We show that both the long- and short-term magnetic variabilities respectively associated with the 11-yr cycle and the quasi-biennial oscillation are well monitored, and that the magnetic field interaction between the subsurface, photosphere, and chromosphere of the Sun was modified between Cycle 24 and Cycle 23. Furthermore, the photometric proxies show a wavelength dependence of the response function of the solar photosphere among the three channels of the VIRGO photometers, providing inputs for the study of the stellar magnetism of Sun-like stars.

Z-rich solar particle event characteristics 1972-1976

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zwickl, R. D.; Roelof, E. C.; Gold, R. E.; Krimigis, S. M.; Armstrong, T. P.

1978-01-01

It is found in the reported investigation that Z-rich solar particle events usually have large and prolonged anisotropies in addition to an extremely variable charge composition that varies not only from event to event but also throughout the event. These observations suggest that one can no longer regard the event-averaged composition of solar particle events at low energies as providing an unbiased global sample of the solar atmospheric composition. The variability from event to event and among classes of events is just too great. However, the tendency for the Z-rich events to be associated with both the low-speed solar wind at or just before the onset of solar wind streams and with active regions located in the western hemisphere, indicates that charge composition studies of solar particle events can yield a better knowledge of the flare acceleration process as well as the inhomogeneous nature of magnetic field structure and particle composition in the solar atmosphere.

({The) Solar System Large Planets influence on a new Maunder Miniμm}

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yndestad, Harald; Solheim, Jan-Erik

2016-04-01

In 1890´s G. Spörer and E. W. Maunder (1890) reported that the solar activity stopped in a period of 70 years from 1645 to 1715. Later a reconstruction of the solar activity confirms the grand minima Maunder (1640-1720), Spörer (1390-1550), Wolf (1270-1340), and the minima Oort (1010-1070) and Dalton (1785-1810) since the year 1000 A.D. (Usoskin et al. 2007). These minimum periods have been associated with less irradiation from the Sun and cold climate periods on Earth. An identification of a three grand Maunder type periods and two Dalton type periods in a period thousand years, indicates that sooner or later there will be a colder climate on Earth from a new Maunder- or Dalton- type period. The cause of these minimum periods, are not well understood. An expected new Maunder-type period is based on the properties of solar variability. If the solar variability has a deterministic element, we can estimate better a new Maunder grand minimum. A random solar variability can only explain the past. This investigation is based on the simple idea that if the solar variability has a deterministic property, it must have a deterministic source, as a first cause. If this deterministic source is known, we can compute better estimates the next expected Maunder grand minimum period. The study is based on a TSI ACRIM data series from 1700, a TSI ACRIM data series from 1000 A.D., sunspot data series from 1611 and a Solar Barycenter orbit data series from 1000. The analysis method is based on a wavelet spectrum analysis, to identify stationary periods, coincidence periods and their phase relations. The result shows that the TSI variability and the sunspots variability have deterministic oscillations, controlled by the large planets Jupiter, Uranus and Neptune, as the first cause. A deterministic model of TSI variability and sunspot variability confirms the known minimum and grand minimum periods since 1000. From this deterministic model we may expect a new Maunder type sunspot minimum period from about 2018 to 2055. The deterministic model of a TSI ACRIM data series from 1700 computes a new Maunder type grand minimum period from 2015 to 2071. A model of the longer TSI ACRIM data series from 1000 computes a new Dalton to Maunder type minimum irradiation period from 2047 to 2068.

Irradiance Observations of SMM, Spacelab 1, UARS, and ATLAS Experiments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Willson, Richard

1994-01-01

Detection of intrinsic solar variability on the total flux level was made using results from the first active Radiometer Irradiance Monitor (ACRIM) experiment, launched on the Solar Maximum Mission (SMM)in early 1980.

Solar Spectral Irradiance Variability of Some Chromospheric Emission Lines Through the Solar Activity Cycles 21-23

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Göker, Ü. D.; Gigolashvili, M. Sh.; Kapanadze, N.

2017-06-01

A study of variations of solar spectral irradiance (SSI) in the wavelength ranges 121.5 nm-300.5 nm for the period 1981-2009 is presented. We used various data for ultraviolet (UV) spectral lines and international sunspot number (ISSN) from interactive data centers such as SME (NSSDC), UARS (GDAAC), SORCE (LISIRD) and SIDC, respectively. We reduced these data by using the MATLAB software package. In this respect, we revealed negative correlations of intensities of UV (289.5 nm-300.5 nm) spectral lines originating in the solar chromosphere with the ISSN index during the unusually prolonged minimum between the solar activity cycles (SACs) 23 and 24. We also compared our results with the variations of solar activity indices obtained by the ground-based telescopes. Therefore, we found that plage regions decrease while facular areas are increasing in SAC 23. However, the decrease in plage regions is seen in small sunspot groups (SGs), contrary to this, these regions in large SGs are comparable to previous SACs or even larger as is also seen in facular areas. Nevertheless, negative correlations between ISSN and SSI data indicate that these variations are in close connection with the classes of sunspots/SGs, faculae and plage regions. Finally, we applied the time series analysis of spectral lines corresponding to the wavelengths 121.5 nm-300.5 nm and made comparisons with the ISSN data. We found an unexpected increase in the 298.5 nm line for the Fe II ion. The variability of Fe II ion 298.5 nm line is in close connection with the facular areas and plage regions, and the sizes of these solar surface indices play an important role for the SSI variability, as well. So, we compared the connection between the sizes of faculae and plage regions, sunspots/SGs, chemical elements and SSI variability. Our future work will be the theoretical study of this connection and developing of a corresponding model.

Solar Dynamics Observatory Lessons Learned

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rivera, Rachel; Uhl, Andrew; Secunda, Mark

2010-01-01

Mission is to study how solar activity is created and how space weather results from that activity. Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA): High Resolution Images of 10 wavelengths every 10 seconds. Extreme Ultraviolet Variability Experiment (EVE): Measure Sun's brightness in EUV. Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI): Measures Doppler shift to study waves of the Sun. Launched February 11, 2010.

Solar UV variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Donnelly, Richard F.

1989-01-01

Measurements from the Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV) provide solar UV flux in the 160 to 400 nm wavelength range, backed up by independent measurement in the 115 to 305 nm range from the Solar Mesosphere Explorer (SME). The full disc UV flux from spatially resolved measurements of solar activity was modeled, which provides a better understanding of why the UV variations have their observed temporal and wavelength dependencies. Long term, intermediate term, and short term variations are briefly examined.

Overview of Key Results from SDO Extreme ultraviolet Variability Experiment (EVE)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woods, Tom; Eparvier, Frank; Jones, Andrew; Mason, James; Didkovsky, Leonid; Chamberlin, Phil

2016-10-01

The SDO Extreme ultraviolet Variability Experiment (EVE) includes several channels to observe the solar extreme ultraviolet (EUV) spectral irradiance from 1 to 106 nm. These channels include the Multiple EUV Grating Spectrograph (MEGS) A, B, and P channels from the University of Colorado (CU) and the EUV SpectroPhometer (ESP) channels from the University of Southern California (USC). The solar EUV spectrum is rich in many different emission lines from the corona, transition region, and chromosphere. The EVE full-disk irradiance spectra are important for studying the solar impacts in Earth's ionosphere and thermosphere and are useful for space weather operations. In addition, the EVE observations, with its high spectral resolution of 0.1 nm and in collaboration with AIA solar EUV images, have proven valuable for studying active region evolution and explosive energy release during flares and coronal eruptions. These SDO measurements have revealed interesting results such as understanding the flare variability over all wavelengths, discovering and classifying different flare phases, using coronal dimming measurements to predict CME properties of mass and velocity, and exploring the role of nano-flares in continual heating of active regions.

Solar Irradiance Variability and Its Impacts on the Earth Climate System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harder, J. W.; Woods, T. N.

The Sun plays a vital role in the evolution of the climates of terrestrial planets. Observations of the solar spectrum are now routinely made that span the wavelength range from the X-ray portion of the spectrum (5 nm) into the infrared to about 2400 nm. Over this very broad wavelength range, accounting for about 97% of the total solar irradiance, the intensity varies by more than 6 orders of magnitude, requiring a suite of very different and innovative instruments to determine both the spectral irradiance and its variability. The origins of solar variability are strongly linked to surface magnetic field changes, and analysis of solar images and magnetograms show that the intensity of emitted radiation from solar surface features in active regions has a very strong wavelength and magnetic field strength dependence. These magnetic fields produce observable solar surface features such as sunspots, faculae, and network structures that contribute in different ways to the radiated output. Semi-empirical models of solar spectral irradiance are able to capture much of the Sun's output, but this topic remains an active area of research. Studies of solar structures in both high spectral and spatial resolution are refining this understanding. Advances in Earth observation systems and high-quality three-dimensional chemical climate models provide a sound methodology to study the mechanisms of the interaction between Earth's atmosphere and the incoming solar radiation. Energetic photons have a profound effect on the chemistry and dynamics of the thermosphere and ionosphere, and these processes are now well represented in upper atmospheric models. In the middle and lower atmosphere the effects of solar variability enter the climate system through two nonexclusive pathways referred to as the top-down and bottom-up mechanisms. The top-down mechanism proceeds through the alteration of the photochemical rates that establish the middle atmospheric temperature structure and circulation patterns. In the bottom-up mechanism, the increased solar cycle forcing at Earth's surface increases the latent heat flux and evaporation processes, thereby altering the tropical wind patterns.

Global conditions in the solar corona from 2010 to 2017

PubMed Central

Morgan, Huw; Taroyan, Youra

2017-01-01

Through reduction of a huge data set spanning 2010–2017, we compare mean global changes in temperature, emission measure (EM), and underlying photospheric magnetic field of the solar corona over most of the last activity cycle. The quiet coronal mean temperature rises from 1.4 to 1.8 MK, whereas EM increases by almost a factor of 50% from solar minimum to maximum. An increased high-temperature component near 3 MK at solar maximum drives the increase in quiet coronal mean temperature, whereas the bulk of the plasma remains near 1.6 MK throughout the cycle. The mean, spatially smoothed magnitude of the quiet Sun magnetic field rises from 1.6 G in 2011 to peak at 2.0 G in 2015. Active region conditions are highly variable, but their mean remains approximately constant over the cycle, although there is a consistent decrease in active region high-temperature emission (near 3 MK) between the peak of solar maximum and present. Active region mean temperature, EM, and magnetic field magnitude are highly correlated. Correlation between sunspot/active region area and quiet coronal conditions shows the important influence of decaying sunspots in driving global changes, although we find no appreciable delay between changes in active region area and quiet Sun magnetic field strength. The hot coronal contribution to extreme ultraviolet (EUV) irradiance is dominated by the quiet corona throughout most of the cycle, whereas the high variability is driven by active regions. Solar EUV irradiance cannot be predicted accurately by sunspot index alone, highlighting the need for continued measurements. PMID:28740861

Geomagnetic activity: Dependence on solar wind parameters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Svalgaard, L.

1977-01-01

Current ideas about the interaction between the solar wind and the earth's magnetosphere are reviewed. The solar wind dynamic pressure as well as the influx of interplanetary magnetic field lines are both important for the generation of geomagnetic activity. The influence of the geometry of the situation as well as the variability of the interplanetary magnetic field are both found to be important factors. Semi-annual and universal time variations are discussed as well as the 22-year cycle in geomagnetic activity. All three are found to be explainable by the varying geometry of the interaction. Long term changes in geomagnetic activity are examined.

Insignificant solar-terrestrial triggering of earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Love, Jeffrey J.; Thomas, Jeremy N.

2013-01-01

We examine the claim that solar-terrestrial interaction, as measured by sunspots, solar wind velocity, and geomagnetic activity, might play a role in triggering earthquakes. We count the number of earthquakes having magnitudes that exceed chosen thresholds in calendar years, months, and days, and we order these counts by the corresponding rank of annual, monthly, and daily averages of the solar-terrestrial variables. We measure the statistical significance of the difference between the earthquake-number distributions below and above the median of the solar-terrestrial averages by χ2 and Student's t tests. Across a range of earthquake magnitude thresholds, we find no consistent and statistically significant distributional differences. We also introduce time lags between the solar-terrestrial variables and the number of earthquakes, but again no statistically significant distributional difference is found. We cannot reject the null hypothesis of no solar-terrestrial triggering of earthquakes.

Implications of solar irradiance variability upon long-term changes in the Earth's atmospheric temperatures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Robert B., III

1992-01-01

From 1979 through 1987, it is believed that variability in the incoming solar energy played a significant role in changing the Earth's climate. Using high-precision spacecraft radiometric measurements, the incoming total solar irradiance (total amount of solar power per unit area) and the Earth's mean, global atmospheric temperatures were found to vary in phase with each other. The observed irradiance and temperature changes appeared to be correlated with the 11-year cycle of solar magnetic activity. During the period from 1979 through 1985, both the irradiance and temperature decreased. From 1985 to 1987, they increased. The irradiance changed approximately 0.1 percent, while the temperature varied as much as 0.6 C. During the 1979-1987 period, the temperatures were forecasted to rise linearly because of the anthropogenic build-up of carbon dioxide and the hypothesized 'global warming', 'greenhouse effect', scenarios. Contrary to these scenarios, the temperatures were found to vary in a periodic manner in phase with the solar irradiance changes. The observed correlations between irradiance and temperature variabilily suggest that the mean, global temperature of the Earth may decline between 1990 and 1997 as solar magnetic activity decreases.

The northern annular mode in summer and its relation to solar activity variations in the GISS ModelE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Jae N.; Hameed, Sultan; Shindell, Drew T.

2008-03-01

The northern annular mode (NAM) has been successfully used in several studies to understand the variability of the winter atmosphere and its modulation by solar activity. The variability of summer circulation can also be described by the leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) of geopotential heights. We compare the annular modes of the summer geopotential heights in the northern hemisphere stratosphere and troposphere in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) ModelE with those in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis. In the stratosphere, the summer NAM obtained from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis as well as from the ModelE simulations has the same sign throughout the northern hemisphere, but shows greater variability at low latitudes. The patterns in both analyses are consistent with the interpretation that low NAM conditions represent an enhancement of the seasonal difference between the summer and the annual averages of geopotential height, temperature and velocity distributions, while the reverse holds for high NAM conditions. Composite analysis of high and low NAM cases in both model and observation suggests that the summer stratosphere is more "summer-like" when the solar activity is near a maximum. This means that the zonal easterly wind flow is stronger and the temperature is higher than normal. Thus increased irradiance favors a low summer NAM. A quantitative comparison of the anti-correlation between the NAM and the solar forcing is presented in the model and in the observation, both of which show lower/higher NAM index in solar maximum/minimum conditions. The temperature fluctuations in simulated solar minimum conditions are greater than in solar maximum throughout the summer stratosphere. The summer NAM in the troposphere obtained from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis has a dipolar zonal structure with maximum variability over the Asian monsoon region. The corresponding EOF in ModelE has a qualitatively similar structure but with less variability in the Asian monsoon region which is displaced eastward of its observed position. In both the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and the GCM the negative anomalies associated with the NAM in the Euro-Atlantic and Aleutian island regions are enhanced in the solar minimum conditions, though the results are not statistically significant.

Overview of the Temperature Response in the Mesosphere and Lower Thermosphere to Solar Activity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Beig, Gufran; Scheer, Juergen; Mlynczak, Martin G.; Keckhut, Philippe

2008-01-01

The natural variability in the terrestrial mesosphere needs to be known to correctly quantify global change. The response of the thermal structure to solar activity variations is an important factor. Some of the earlier studies highly overestimated the mesospheric solar response. Modeling of the mesospheric temperature response to solar activity has evolved in recent years, and measurement techniques as well as the amount of data have improved. Recent investigations revealed much smaller solar signatures and in some case no significant solar signal at all. However, not much effort has been made to synthesize the results available so far. This article presents an overview of the energy budget of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) and an up-to-date status of solar response in temperature structure based on recently available observational data. An objective evaluation of the data sets is attempted and important factors of uncertainty are discussed.

Understanding the origin of the solar cyclic activity for an improved earth climate prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turck-Chièze, Sylvaine; Lambert, Pascal

This review is dedicated to the processes which could explain the origin of the great extrema of the solar activity. We would like to reach a more suitable estimate and prediction of the temporal solar variability and its real impact on the Earth climatic models. The development of this new field is stimulated by the SoHO helioseismic measurements and by some recent solar modelling improvement which aims to describe the dynamical processes from the core to the surface. We first recall assumptions on the potential different solar variabilities. Then, we introduce stellar seismology and summarize the main SOHO results which are relevant for this field. Finally we mention the dynamical processes which are presently introduced in new solar models. We believe that the knowledge of two important elements: (1) the magnetic field interplay between the radiative zone and the convective zone and (2) the role of the gravity waves, would allow to understand the origin of the grand minima and maxima observed during the last millennium. Complementary observables like acoustic and gravity modes, radius and spectral irradiance from far UV to visible in parallel to the development of 1D-2D-3D simulations will improve this field. PICARD, SDO, DynaMICCS are key projects for a prediction of the next century variability. Some helioseismic indicators constitute the first necessary information to properly describe the Sun-Earth climatic connection.

Are solar brightness variations faculae- or spot-dominated?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shapiro, A. I.; Solanki, S. K.; Krivova, N. A.; Yeo, K. L.; Schmutz, W. K.

2016-05-01

Context. Regular spaceborne measurements have revealed that solar brightness varies on multiple timescales, variations on timescales greater than a day being attributed to a surface magnetic field. Independently, ground-based and spaceborne measurements suggest that Sun-like stars show a similar, but significantly broader pattern of photometric variability. Aims: To understand whether the broader pattern of stellar variations is consistent with the solar paradigm, we assess relative contributions of faculae and spots to solar magnetically-driven brightness variability. We investigate how the solar brightness variability and its facular and spot contributions depend on the wavelength, timescale of variability, and position of the observer relative to the ecliptic plane. Methods: We performed calculations with the SATIRE model, which returns solar brightness with daily cadence from solar disc area coverages of various magnetic features. We took coverages as seen by an Earth-based observer from full-disc SoHO/MDI and SDO/HMI data and projected them to mimic out-of-ecliptic viewing by an appropriate transformation. Results: Moving the observer away from the ecliptic plane increases the amplitude of 11-year variability as it would be seen in Strömgren (b + y)/2 photometry, but decreases the amplitude of the rotational brightness variations as it would appear in Kepler and CoRoT passbands. The spot and facular contributions to the 11-year solar variability in the Strömgren (b + y)/2 photometry almost fully compensate each other so that the Sun appears anomalously quiet with respect to its stellar cohort. Such a compensation does not occur on the rotational timescale. Conclusions: The rotational solar brightness variability as it would appear in the Kepler and CoRoT passbands from the ecliptic plane is spot-dominated, but the relative contribution of faculae increases for out-of-ecliptic viewing so that the apparent brightness variations are faculae-dominated for inclinations less than about I = 45°. Over the course of the 11-year activity cycle, the solar brightness variability is faculae-dominated shortwards of 1.2 μm independently of the inclination.

Lagged correlations between the NAO and the 11-year solar cycle: forced response or internal variability?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oehrlein, J.; Chiodo, G.; Polvani, L. M.; Smith, A. K.

2017-12-01

Recently, the North Atlantic Oscillation has been suggested to respond to the 11-year solar cycle with a lag of a few years. The solar/NAO relationship provides a potential pathway for solar activity to modulate surface climate. However, a short observational record paired with the strong internal variability of the NAO raises questions about the robustness of the claimed solar/NAO relationship. For the first time, we investigate the robustness of the solar/NAO signal in four different reanalysis data sets and long integrations from an ocean-coupled chemistry-climate model forced with the 11-year solar cycle. The signal appears to be robust in the different reanalysis datasets. We also show, for the first time, that many features of the observed signal, such as amplitude, spatial pattern, and lag of 2/3 years, can be accurately reproduced in our model simulations. However, in both the reanalysis and model simulations, we find that this signal is non-stationary. A lagged NAO/solar signal can also be reproduced in two sets of model integrations without the 11-year solar cycle. This suggests that the correlation found in observational data could be the result of internal decadal variability in the NAO and not a response to the solar cycle. This has wide implications towards the interpretation of solar signals in observational data.

Influence of solar variability on the infrared radiative cooling of the thermosphere from 2002 to 2014.

PubMed

Mlynczak, Martin G; Hunt, Linda A; Mertens, Christopher J; Thomas Marshall, B; Russell, James M; Woods, Thomas; Earl Thompson, R; Gordley, Larry L

2014-04-16

Infrared radiative cooling of the thermosphere by carbon dioxide (CO 2 , 15 µm) and by nitric oxide (NO, 5.3 µm) has been observed for 12 years by the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument on the Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics satellite. For the first time we present a record of the two most important thermospheric infrared cooling agents over a complete solar cycle. SABER has documented dramatic variability in the radiative cooling on time scales ranging from days to the 11 year solar cycle. Deep minima in global mean vertical profiles of radiative cooling are observed in 2008-2009. Current solar maximum conditions, evidenced in the rates of radiative cooling, are substantially weaker than prior maximum conditions in 2002-2003. The observed changes in thermospheric cooling correlate well with changes in solar ultraviolet irradiance and geomagnetic activity during the prior maximum conditions. NO and CO 2 combine to emit 7 × 10 18 more Joules annually at solar maximum than at solar minimum. First record of thermospheric IR cooling rates over a complete solar cycleIR cooling in current solar maximum conditions much weaker than prior maximumVariability in thermospheric IR cooling observed on scale of days to 11 years.

Indian summer monsoon rainfall: Dancing with the tunes of the sun

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hiremath, K. M.; Manjunath, Hegde; Soon, Willie

2015-02-01

There is strong statistical evidence that solar activity influences the Indian summer monsoon rainfall. To search for a physical link between the two, we consider the coupled cloud hydrodynamic equations, and derive an equation for the rate of precipitation that is similar to the equation of a forced harmonic oscillator, with cloud and rain water mixing ratios as forcing variables. Those internal forcing variables are parameterized in terms of the combined effect of external forcing as measured by sunspot and coronal hole activities with several well known solar periods (9, 13 and 27 days; 1.3, 5, 11 and 22 years). The equation is then numerically solved and the results show that the variability of the simulated rate of precipitation captures very well the actual variability of the Indian monsoon rainfall, yielding vital clues for a physical understanding that has so far eluded analyses based on statistical correlations alone. We also solved the precipitation equation by allowing for the effects of long-term variation of aerosols. We tentatively conclude that the net effects of aerosols variation are small, when compared to the solar factors, in terms of explaining the observed rainfall variability covering the full Indian monsoonal geographical domains.

Cross correlation and time-lag between cosmic ray intensity and solar activity during solar cycles 21, 22 and 23

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sierra-Porta, D.

2018-07-01

In the present paper a systematic study is carried out to validate the similarity or co-variability between daily terrestrial cosmic-ray intensity and three parameters of the solar corona evolution, i.e., the number of sunspots and flare index observed in the solar corona and the Ap index for regular magnetic field variations caused by regular solar radiation changes. The study is made for a period including three solar cycles starting with cycle 21 (year 1976) and ending on cycle 23 (year 2008). A cross-correlation analysis was used to establish patterns and dependence of the variables. This study focused on the time lag calculation for these variables and found a maximum of negative correlation over CC1≈ 0.85, CC2≈ 0.75 and CC3≈ 0.63 with an estimation of 181, 156 and 2 days of deviation between maximum/minimum of peaks for the intensity of cosmic rays related with sunspot number, flare index and Ap index regression, respectively.

Millimeter and hard x ray/gamma ray observations of solar flares during the June 1991 GRO campaign

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kundu, M. R.; White, S. M.; Gopalswamy, N.; Lim, J.

1992-01-01

We have carried out high-spatial-resolution millimeter observations of solar flares using the Berkeley-Illinois-Maryland Array (BIMA). At the present time, BIMA consists of only three elements, which is not adequate for mapping highly variable solar phenomena, but is excellent for studies of the temporal structure of flares at millimeter wavelengths at several different spatial scales. We present BIMA observations made during the Gamma Ray Observatories (GRO)/Solar Max 1991 campaign in Jun. 1991 when solar activity was unusually high. Our observations covered the period 8-9 Jun. 1991; this period overlapped the period 4-15 Jun. when the Compton Telescope made the Sun a target of opportunity because of the high level of solar activity.

Solar-terrestrial influences on weather and climate; Proceedings of the Symposium, Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio, August 24-28, 1978

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mccormac, B. M. (Editor); Seliga, T. A.

1979-01-01

The book contains most of the invited papers and contributions presented at the symposium/workshop on solar-terrestrial influences on weather and climate. Four main issues dominate the activities of the symposium: whether solar variability relationships to weather and climate is a fundamental scientific question to which answers may have important implications for long-term weather and climate prediction; the sun-weather relationships; other potential solar influences on weather including the 11-year sunspot cycle, the 27-day solar rotation, and special solar events such as flares and coronal holes; and the development of practical use of solar variability as a tool for weather and climatic forecasting, other than through empirical approaches. Attention is given to correlation topics; solar influences on global circulation and climate models; lower and upper atmospheric coupling, including electricity; planetary motions and other indirect factors; experimental approaches to sun-weather relationships; and the role of minor atmospheric constituents.

The Development of a New Model of Solar EUV Irradiance Variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Warren, Harry; Wagner, William J. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The goal of this research project is the development of a new model of solar EUV (Extreme Ultraviolet) irradiance variability. The model is based on combining differential emission measure distributions derived from spatially and spectrally resolved observations of active regions, coronal holes, and the quiet Sun with full-disk solar images. An initial version of this model was developed with earlier funding from NASA. The new version of the model developed with this research grant will incorporate observations from SoHO as well as updated compilations of atomic data. These improvements will make the model calculations much more accurate.

Influence of the Solar Cycle on Turbulence Properties and Cosmic-Ray Diffusion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, L.-L.; Adhikari, L.; Zank, G. P.; Hu, Q.; Feng, X. S.

2018-04-01

The solar cycle dependence of various turbulence quantities and cosmic-ray (CR) diffusion coefficients is investigated by using OMNI 1 minute resolution data over 22 years. We employ Elsässer variables z ± to calculate the magnetic field turbulence energy and correlation lengths for both the inwardly and outwardly directed interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). We present the temporal evolution of both large-scale solar wind (SW) plasma variables and small-scale magnetic fluctuations. Based on these observed quantities, we study the influence of solar activity on CR parallel and perpendicular diffusion using quasi-linear theory and nonlinear guiding center theory, respectively. We also evaluate the radial evolution of the CR diffusion coefficients by using the boundary conditions for different solar activity levels. We find that in the ecliptic plane at 1 au (1), the large-scale SW temperature T, velocity V sw, Alfvén speed V A , and IMF magnitude B 0 are positively related to solar activity; (2) the fluctuating magnetic energy density < {{z}+/- }2> , residual energy E D , and corresponding correlation functions all have an obvious solar cycle dependence. The residual energy E D is always negative, which indicates that the energy in magnetic fluctuations is larger than the energy in kinetic fluctuations, especially at solar maximum; (3) the correlation length λ for magnetic fluctuations does not show significant solar cycle variation; (4) the temporally varying shear source of turbulence, which is most important in the inner heliosphere, depends on the solar cycle; (5) small-scale fluctuations may not depend on the direction of the background magnetic field; and (6) high levels of SW fluctuations will increase CR perpendicular diffusion and decrease CR parallel diffusion, but this trend can be masked if the background IMF changes in concert with turbulence in response to solar activity. These results provide quantitative inputs for both turbulence transport models and CR diffusion models, and also provide valuable insight into the long-term modulation of CRs in the heliosphere.

On the interannual oscillations in the northern temperate total ozone

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Krzyscin, J.W.

1994-07-01

The interannual variations in total ozone are studied using revised Dobson total ozone records (1961-1990) from 17 stations located within the latitude band 30 deg N - 60 deg N. To obtain the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and 11-year solar cycle manifestation in the `northern temperate` total ozone data, various multiple regression models are constructed by the least squares fitting to the observed ozone. The statistical relationships between the selected indices of the atmospheric variabilities and total ozone are described in the linear and nonlinear regression models. Nonlinear relationships to the predictor variables are found. That is,more » the total ozone variations are statistically modeled by nonlinear terms accounting for the coupling between QBO and ENSO, QBO and solar activity, and ENSO and solar activity. It is suggested that large reduction of total ozone values over the `northern temperate` region occurs in cold season when a strong ENSO warm event meets the west phase of the QBO during the period of high solar activity.« less

Asteroseismology - The impact of solar space observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hudson, H. S.

1993-01-01

Observations from space relevant to solar global properties (oscillations, magnetic activity, etc.) are helpful both scientifically and technically in preparing for stellar observations. This paper summarizes the results from the main previous experiments (ACRIM, SOUP, and IPHIR), and also gives an initial technical report from the SXT instrument on board Yohkoh, launched in August 1991. The solar observations to date demonstrate the existence of several mechanisms for low-level variability: spots, faculae, the photospheric network, granulation, and p-mode oscillations. The observations of oscillations have been particularly helpful in setting limits on solar interior rotation. In addition to the solar processes, stars of other types may have different mechanisms of variability. These may include the analogs of coronal holes or solar flares, modes of oscillation not detected in the sun, collisions with small bodies, duplicity, and probably mechanisms not invented yet but related in interesting ways to stellar convection and magnetism.

MAX 1991. The active sun: A plan for pursuing the study of the active sun at the time of the next maximum in solar activity, January 1985

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Acton, L.

1989-01-01

The results of the discusions of a working group for the definition of a program for the forthcoming crest of solar activity, 1990 to 1993 are presented. The MAX '91 program described are intended to achieve important scientific goals within the context of the natural solar variability. The heart of the MAX '91 program is a series of campaigns oriented towards specific scientific problems, and taking place in the solar maximum period 1990 to 1993. These campaigns will take advantage of the load-carrying capability of the Space Shuttle to fly instruments with observational capabilities very different from those of the Solar Maximum Mission. Various combinations of instruments appropriate to the specific scientific problem of a given campaign would be flown on a Shuttle sortie mission.

The Magnetic Free Energy in Active Regions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Metcalf, Thomas R.; Mickey, Donald L.; LaBonte, Barry J.

2001-01-01

The magnetic field permeating the solar atmosphere governs much of the structure, morphology, brightness, and dynamics observed on the Sun. The magnetic field, especially in active regions, is thought to provide the power for energetic events in the solar corona, such as solar flares and Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) and is believed to energize the hot coronal plasma seen in extreme ultraviolet or X-rays. The question remains what specific aspect of the magnetic flux governs the observed variability. To directly understand the role of the magnetic field in energizing the solar corona, it is necessary to measure the free magnetic energy available in active regions. The grant now expiring has demonstrated a new and valuable technique for observing the magnetic free energy in active regions as a function of time.

Improving Soft X-Ray Spectral Irradiance Models for Use Throughout the Solar System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eparvier, F. G.; Thiemann, E.; Woods, T. N.

2017-12-01

Understanding the effects of solar variability on planetary atmospheres has been hindered by the lack of accurate models and measurements of the soft x-ray (SXR) spectral irradiance (0-6 nm). Most measurements of the SXR have been broadband and are difficult to interpret due to changing spectral distribution under the pass band of the instruments. Models that use reference spectra for quiet sun, active region, and flaring contributions to irradiance have been made, but with limited success. The recent Miniature X-ray Solar Spectrometer (MinXSS) CubeSat made spectral measurements in the 0.04 - 3 nm range from June 2016 to May 2017, observing the Sun at many different levels of activity. In addition, the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) EUV Variability Experiment (EVE) has observed the Sun since May 2010, in both broad bands (including a band at 0-7 nm) and spectrally resolved (6-105 nm at 0.1 nm resolution). We will present an improved model of the SXR based on new reference spectra from MinXSS and SDO-EVE. The non-flaring portion of the model is driven by broadband SXR measurements for determining activity level and relative contributions of quiet and active sun. Flares are modeled using flare temperatures from the GOES X-Ray Sensors. The improved SXR model can be driven by any sensors that provide a measure of activity level and flare temperature from any vantage point in the solar system. As an example, a version of the model is using the broadband solar irradiance measurements from the MAVEN EUV Monitor at Mars will be presented.

The Solar Wind and Geomagnetic Activity as a Function of Time Relative to Corotating Interaction Regions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McPherron, Robert L.; Weygand, James

2006-01-01

Corotating interaction regions during the declining phase of the solar cycle are the cause of recurrent geomagnetic storms and are responsible for the generation of high fluxes of relativistic electrons. These regions are produced by the collision of a high-speed stream of solar wind with a slow-speed stream. The interface between the two streams is easily identified with plasma and field data from a solar wind monitor upstream of the Earth. The properties of the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field are systematic functions of time relative to the stream interface. Consequently the coupling of the solar wind to the Earth's magnetosphere produces a predictable sequence of events. Because the streams persist for many solar rotations it should be possible to use terrestrial observations of past magnetic activity to predict future activity. Also the high-speed streams are produced by large unipolar magnetic regions on the Sun so that empirical models can be used to predict the velocity profile of a stream expected at the Earth. In either case knowledge of the statistical properties of the solar wind and geomagnetic activity as a function of time relative to a stream interface provides the basis for medium term forecasting of geomagnetic activity. In this report we use lists of stream interfaces identified in solar wind data during the years 1995 and 2004 to develop probability distribution functions for a variety of different variables as a function of time relative to the interface. The results are presented as temporal profiles of the quartiles of the cumulative probability distributions of these variables. We demonstrate that the storms produced by these interaction regions are generally very weak. Despite this the fluxes of relativistic electrons produced during those storms are the highest seen in the solar cycle. We attribute this to the specific sequence of events produced by the organization of the solar wind relative to the stream interfaces. We also show that there are large quantitative differences in various parameters between the two cycles.

Terrestrial cooling and solar variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Agee, E. M.

1982-01-01

Observational evidence from surface temperature records is presented and discussed which suggests a significant cooling trend over the Northern Hemisphere from 1940 to the present. This cooling trend is associated with an increase of the latitudinal gradient of temperature and the lapse rate, as predicted by climate models with decreased solar input and feedback mechanisms. Evidence suggests that four of these 80- to 100-year cycles of global surface temperature fluctuation may have occurred, and in succession, from 1600 to the present. Interpretation of sunspot activity were used to infer a direct thermal response of terrestrial temperature to solar variability on the time scale of the Gleissberg cycle (90 years, an amplitude of the 11-year cycles). A physical link between the sunspot activity and the solar parameter is hypothesized. Observations of sensible heat flux by stationary planetary waves and transient eddies, as well as general circulation modeling results of these processes, were examined from the viewpoint of the hypothesis of cooling due to reduced insolation.

Equatorial ionospheric absorption during half a solar cycle (1964-1970)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gnanalingam, S.

1972-01-01

An extensive series of vertical incidence absorption measurements made at an equatorial station is analyzed in detail for a better understanding of the lower ionosphere. A quantitive empirical relationship is derived between absorption and 1 to 8 A solar flux for moderate levels of solar activity. It is shown that the threshold flux for D region modification, at a solar zenith angle of 10 deg, is approximately 0.0005 erg/sq/cm/sec. Attention is drawn to the incidence of days of high absorption even in the absence of solar X-ray activity. Available evidence points to variability of the order of 10 to 40% in the intensity of the solar Lyman alpha radiation as the most likely cause of these unusual, though infrequent, enhancements in absorption.

Potential impacts of a future Grand Solar Minimum on decadal regional climate change and interannual hemispherical climate variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spiegl, Tobias; Langematz, Ulrike

2016-04-01

The political, technical and socio-economic developments of the next decades will determine the magnitude of 21st century climate change, since they are inextricably linked to future anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. To assess the range of uncertainty that is related to these developments, it is common to assume different emission scenarios for 21st climate projections. While the uncertainties associated with the anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing have been studied intensely, the contribution of natural climate drivers (particularly solar variability) to recent and future climate change are subject of intense debate. The past 1,000 years featured at least 5 excursions (lasting 60-100 years) of exceptionally low solar activity, induced by a weak magnetic field of the Sun, so called Grand Solar Minima. While the global temperature response to such a decrease in solar activity is assumed to be rather small, nonlinear mechanisms in the climate system might amplify the regional temperature signal. This hypothesis is supported by the last Grand Solar Minimum (the Maunder Minimum, 1645-1715) which coincides with the Little Ice Age, an epoch which is characterized by severe cold and hardship over Europe, North America and Asia. The long-lasting minimum of Solar Cycle 23 as well as the overall weak maximum of Cycle 24 reveal the possibility for a return to Grand Solar Minimum conditions within the next decades. The quantification of the implications of such a projected decrease in solar forcing is of ultimate importance, given the on-going public discussion of the role of carbon dioxide emissions for global warming, and the possible role a cooling due to decreasing solar activity could be ascribed to. Since there is still no clear consensus about the actual strength of the Maunder Minimum, we used 3 acknowledged solar reconstruction datasets that show significant differences in both, total solar irradiance (TSI) and spectral irradiance (SSI) to simulate a future Grand Solar Minimum under RCP6.0 conditions. The results obtained were compared to a RCP6.0 simulation that was carried out using the CCMI recommendations for a 21st century solar forcing. We used the ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) chemistry-climate model that incorporates interactive ozone chemistry, a high-resolution shortwave radiation scheme, a high model top (0.01 hPa) and is coupled to a 3D ocean general circulation model. We focused on the regional responses to a future Grand Solar Minimum and interannual variability patterns (i.e. the Northern and Southern Annular Mode (NAM/SAM)).

Response of the upper atmosphere to variations in the solar soft x-ray irradiance. Ph.D. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bailey, Scott Martin

1995-01-01

Terrestrial far ultraviolet (FUV) airglow emissions have been suggested as a means for remote sensing the structure of the upper atmosphere. The energy which leads to the excitation of FUV airglow emissions is solar irradiance at extreme ultraviolet (EUV) and soft x-ray wavelengths. Solar irradiance at these wavelengths is known to be highly variable; studies of nitric oxide (NO) in the lower thermosphere have suggested a variability of more than an order of magnitude in the solar soft x-ray irradiance. To properly interpret the FUV airflow, the magnitude of the solar energy deposition must be known. Previous analyses have used the electron impact excited Lyman-Birge-Hopfield (LBH) bands of N2 to infer the flux of photoelectrons in the atmosphere and thus to infer the magnitude of the solar irradiance. This dissertation presents the first simultaneous measurements of the FUV airglow, the major atmospheric constituent densities, and the solar EUV and soft x-ray irradiances. The measurements were made on three flights of an identical sounding rocket payload at different levels of solar activity. The linear response in brightness of the LBH bands to variations in solar irradiance is demonstrated. In addition to the N2 LBH bands, atomic oxygen lines at 135.6 and 130.4 nm are also studied. Unlike the LBH bands, these emissions undergo radiative transfer effects in the atmosphere. The OI emission at 135.6 nm is found to be well modeled using a radiative transfer calculation and the known excitation processes. Unfortunately, the assumed processes leading to OI 130.4 nm excitation are found to be insufficient to reproduce the observed variability of this emission. Production of NO in the atmosphere is examined; it is shown that a lower than previously reported variability in the solar soft x-ray irradiance is required to explain the variability of NO.

Search for Trends and Periodicities in Inter-hemispheric Sea Surface Temperature Difference

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rajesh, R.; Tiwari, R. K.

2018-02-01

Understanding the role of coupled solar and internal ocean dynamics on hemispheric climate variability is critical to climate modelling. We have analysed here 165 year long annual northern hemispheric (NH) and southern hemispheric (SH) sea surface temperature (SST) data employing spectral and statistical techniques to identify the imprints of solar and ocean-atmospheric processes, if any. We reconstructed the eigen modes of NH-SST and SH-SST to reveal non-linear oscillations superimposed on the monotonic trend. Our analysis reveals that the first eigen mode of NH-SST and SH-SST representing long-term trend of SST variability accounts for 15-23% variance. Interestingly, these components are matching with first eigen mode (99% variance) of the total solar irradiance (TSI) suggesting possible impact of solar activity on long-term SST variation. Furthermore, spectral analysis of SSA reconstructed signal revealed statistically significant periodicities of 63 ± 5, 22 ± 2, 10 ± 1, 7.6, 6.3, 5.2, 4.7, and 4.2 years in both NH-SST and SH-SST data. The major harmonics centred at 63 ± 5, 22 ± 2, and 10 ± 1 years are similar to solar periodicities and hence may represent solar forcing, while the components peaking at around 7.6, 6.3, 5.2, 4.7, and 4.2 years apparently falls in the frequency bands of El-Nino-Southern Oscillations linked to the oceanic internal processes. Our analyses also suggest evidence for the amplitude modulation of 9-11 and 21-22 year solar cycles, respectively, by 104 and 163 years in northern and southern hemispheric SST data. The absence of the above periodic oscillations in CO2 fails to suggest its role on observed inter-hemispheric SST difference. The cross-plot analysis also revealed strong influence of solar activity on linear trend of NH- and SH-SST in addition to small contribution from CO2. Our study concludes that (1) the long-term trends in northern and southern hemispheric SST variability show considerable synchronicity with cyclic warming and cooling phases and (2) the difference in cyclic forcing and non-linear modulations stemming from solar variability as a possible source of hemispheric SST differences.

Application of solar max ACRIM data to analyze solar-driven climatic variability on Earth

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hoffert, M. I.

1986-01-01

Langley, in the late nineteenth century, attempted to measure solar irradiance over an extended period of time in order to detect changes. The problem with this and other early attempts was that ground based measurements are not sufficiently accurate to measure solar irradiance fluctuations, which are on the order of 0.1%. It was not until the Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor (ACRIM) experiment on the NASA Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) was launched in 1980 that continuous data with precision 0.1% was available.

Periodic Analysis Between Solar Variability and the Earth's Temperature From Centuries to Ten Thousand Years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, X.; Feng, X. S.

2014-12-01

The global warming is one of the hottest topics for both scientists and the public at present. Strong evidences have shown that the global warming is related to the man-made increasing greenhouse gas levels. Besides the artificial factors, natural forces also contribute to the Earth's climate change. Among them, solar activity is an important ingredient of the natural driving forces of the Earth's climate. In this study, two data sets are adopted to investigate the periodicities of both solar activity and the variation of the Earth temperature as well as their correlations based on the wavelet analysis and cross correlation method. The first one is a directly measured data set covering centuries, while the second one is the reconstructed data during the past 11,000 years. The obtained results demonstrate that solar activity and the Earth's temperature have significant resonance cycles, and the Earth's temperature has periodic variations similar to those of solar activity. For centuries, these common periodicities include the 22-year cycle and the 50-year cycle. While for 11,000 years, they are the 200-year, 500-year, 1000-year, and 2000-year cycles. Correlation analysis reveals that the correlations between solar variability and the Earth's temperature are statistically significant. The correlation coefficient (C.C.) between the 11-year running averaged Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) and the ocean temperature is 0.88 during the past 133 years of global warming. While for 11,000 years, the C.C. between the 500-year running averages of sunspot number (SSN) and the Earth temperature (r=0.51, p=1%) is stronger than that between the temperature and the atmospheric CO2 concentration (r=0.35, p=10%). All these support that solar activity should have non-ignorable effects on the Earth's climate change, especially before the modern industrial time.

Factors Affecting the Inter-annual to Centennial Time Scale Variability of All Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malik, Abdul; Brönnimann, Stefan

2016-04-01

The All Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (AISMR) is highly important for the livelihood of more than 1 billion people living in the Indian sub-continent. The agriculture of this region is heavily dependent on seasonal (JJAS) monsoon rainfall. An early start or a slight delay of monsoon, or an early withdrawal or prolonged monsoon season may upset the farmer's agricultural plans, can cause significant reduction in crop yield, and hence economic loss. Understanding of AISMR is also vital because it is a part of global atmospheric circulation system. Several studies show that AISMR is influenced by internal climate forcings (ICFs) viz. ENSO, AMO, PDO etc. as well as external climate forcings (ECFs) viz. Greenhouse Gases, volcanic eruptions, and Total Solar Irradiance (TSI). We investigate the influence of ICFs and ECFs on AISMR using recently developed statistical technique called De-trended Partial-Cross-Correlation Analysis (DPCCA). DPCCA can analyse a complex system of several interlinked variables. Often, climatic variables, being cross correlated, are simultaneously tele-connected with several other variables and it is not easy to isolate their intrinsic relationship. In the presence of non-stationarities and background signals the calculated correlation coefficients can be overestimated and erroneous. DPCCA method removes the non-stationarities and partials out the influence of background signals from the variables being cross correlated and thus give a robust estimate of correlation. We have performed the analysis using NOAA Reconstructed SSTs and homogenised instrumental AISMR data set from 1854-1999. By employing the DPCCA method we find that there is a statistically insignificant negative intrinsic relation (by excluding the influence of ICFs, and ECFs except TSI) between AISMR and TSI on decadal to centennial time scale. The ICFs considerably modulate the relation between AISMR and solar activity between 50-80 year time scales and transform this relationship to statistically significant positive. We conclude that the positive relation between AISMR and solar activity, as found by other authors, is due to the combined effect of AMO, PDO and multi-decadal ENSO variability on AISMR. The solar activity influences the ICFs and this influence is then transmitted to AISMR. Further, we find that there is statistically positive intrinsic relation between AISMR and AMO from 26 to 100 year time scales which is modulated by ICFs (PDO, ENSO) and ECFs. PDO, ENSO, and solar activity weaken this intrinsic relationship whereas the combined effect of ECFc (solar activity, volcanic eruptions, CO2, & tropospheric aerosol optical depth) results in strengthening of this relationship from 70 to 100 year time scales. There is a negative intrinsic relation between AISMR and PDO which is not statistically significant at any time scale. However this relationship becomes statistically significant only in the presence of combined effect of North Atlantic SSTs and ENSO (4-39 year time scale) and individual effect of TSI (3-26 year time scale) on AISMR. We also find that there is statistical significant negative relationship between AISMR and ENSO on inter-annual to centennial time scale and the strength of this relationship is modulated by solar activity from 3 to 40 year time scale.

Solar-Iss a New Solar Reference Spectrum Covering the Far UV to the Infrared (165 to 3088 Nm) Based on Reanalyzed Solar/solspec Cycle 24 Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Damé, L.; Meftah, M.; Irbah, A.; Hauchecorne, A.; Bekki, S.; Bolsée, D.; Pereira, N.; Sluse, D.; Cessateur, G.

2017-12-01

Since April 5, 2008 and until February 15, 2017, the SOLSPEC (SOLar SPECtrometer) spectro-radiometer of the SOLAR facility on the International Space Station performed accurate measurements of Solar Spectral Irradiance (SSI) from the far ultraviolet to the infrared (165 nm to 3088 nm). These measurements, unique by their large spectral coverage and long time range, are of primary importance for a better understanding of solar physics and of the impact of solar variability on climate (via Earth's atmospheric photochemistry), noticeably through the "top-down" mechanism amplifying ultraviolet (UV) solar forcing effects on the climate (UV affects stratospheric dynamics and temperatures, altering interplanetary waves and weather patterns both poleward and downward to the lower stratosphere and troposphere regions). SOLAR/SOLSPEC, with almost 9 years of observations covering the essential of the unusual solar cycle 24 from minimum in 2008 to maximum, allowed to establish new reference solar spectra from UV to IR (165 to 3088 nm) at minimum (beginning of mission) and maximum of activity. The complete reanalysis was possible thanks to revised engineering corrections, improved calibrations and advanced procedures to account for thermal, aging and pointing corrections. The high quality and sensitivity of SOLSPEC data allow to follow temporal variability in UV but also in visible along the cycle. Uncertainties on these measurements are evaluated and results, absolute reference spectra and variability, are compared with other measurements (WHI, ATLAS-3, SCIAMACHY, SORCE/SOLSTICE, SORCE/SIM) and models (SATIRE-S, NRLSSI, NESSY)

Changes in photochemically significant solar UV spectral irradiance as estimated by the composite Mg II index and scale factors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Deland, Matthew T.; Cebula, Richard P.

1994-01-01

Quantitative assessment of the impact of solar ultraviolet irradiance variations on stratospheric ozone abundances currently requires the use of proxy indicators. The Mg II core-to-wing index has been developed as an indicator of solar UV activity between 175-400 nm that is independent of most instrument artifacts, and measures solar variability on both rotational and solar cycle time scales. Linear regression fits have been used to merge the individual Mg II index data sets from the Nimbus-7, NOAA-9, and NOAA-11 instruments onto a single reference scale. The change in 27-dayrunning average of the composite Mg II index from solar maximum to solar minimum is approximately 8 percent for solar cycle 21, and approximately 9 percent for solar cycle 22 through January 1992. Scaling factors based on the short-term variations in the Mg II index and solar irradiance data sets have been developed to estimate solar variability at mid-UV and near-UV wavelengths. Near 205 nm, where solar irradiance variations are important for stratospheric photo-chemistry and dynamics, the estimated change in irradiance during solar cycle 22 is approximately 10 percent using the composite Mg II index and scale factors.

The Sun, Its Extended Corona, the Interplanetary Space, the Earth's Magnetosphere, Ionosphere, Middle and Low Atmosphere, are All Parts of a Complex System - the Heliosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gopalswamy, Natchimuthuk

2011-01-01

Various manifestations of solar activity cause disturbances known as space weather effects in the interplanetary space, near-Earth environment, and all the Earth's "spheres. Longterm variations in the frequency, intensity and relative importance of the manifestations of solar activity are due to the slow changes in the output of the solar dynamo, and they define space climate. Space climate governs long-term variations in geomagnetic activity and is the primary natural driver of terrestrial climate. To understand how the variable solar activity affects the Earth's environment, geomagnetic activity and climate on both short and long time scales, we need to understand the origins of solar activity itself and its different manifestations, as well as the sequence of coupling processes linking various parts of the system. This session provides a forum to discuss the chain of processes and relations from the Sun to the Earth's surface: the origin and long-term and short-term evolution of solar activity, initiation and temporal variations in solar flares, CMEs, coronal holes, the solar wind and its interaction with the terrestrial magnetosphere, the ionosphere and its connection to the neutral dominated regions below and the plasma dominated regions above, the stratosphere, its variations due to the changing solar activity and its interactions with the underlying troposphere, and the mechanisms of solar influences on the lower atmosphere on different time-scales. Particularly welcome are papers highlighting the coupling processes between the different domains in this complex system.

Attribution of ionospheric vertical plasma drift perturbations to large-scale waves and the dependence on solar activity (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, H.; Richmond, A. D.

2013-12-01

In this study we quantify the contribution of individual large-scale waves to ionospheric electrodynamics, and examine the dependence of the ionospheric perturbations on solar activity. We focus on migrating diurnal tide (DW1) plus mean winds, migrating semidiurnal tide (SW2), quasi-stationary planetary wave 1 (QSPW1), and nonmigrating semidiurnal westward wave 1 (SW1) under northern winter conditions, when QSPW1 and SW1 are climatologically strong. From TIME-GCM simulations under solar minimum conditions, we calculate equatorial vertical ExB drifts due to mean winds and DW1, SW2, SW1 and QSPW1. In particular, wind components of both SW2 and SW1 become large at mid to high latitudes in the E-region, and kernel functions obtained from numerical experiments reveal that they can significantly affect the equatorial ion drift, likely through modulating the E-region wind dynamo. The most evident changes of total ionospheric vertical drift when solar activity is increased are seen around dawn and dusk, reflecting the more dominant role of large F-region Pedersen conductivity and of the F-region dynamo under high solar activity. Therefore, the lower atmosphere driving of the ionospheric variability is more evident under solar minimum conditions, not only because variability is more identifiable in a quieter background, but also because the E-region wind dynamo is more significant. These numerical experiments also demonstrate that the amplitudes, phases and latitudinal and vertical structures of large-scale waves are important in quantifying the ionospheric responses.

NREL: International Activities - Assessments and Tools

Science.gov Websites

for Solar and Wind Energy, a collaborative, open-architecture project led by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) for Multilateral Solar and Wind Working Group of the Clean Energy associated with integrating variable renewable energy into the power grid. OpenEI: Open Energy Information

Empirical model of TEC response to geomagnetic and solar forcing over Balkan Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mukhtarov, P.; Andonov, B.; Pancheva, D.

2018-01-01

An empirical total electron content (TEC) model response to external forcing over Balkan Peninsula (35°N-50°N; 15°E-30°E) is built by using the Center for Orbit Determination of Europe (CODE) TEC data for full 17 years, January 1999 - December 2015. The external forcing includes geomagnetic activity described by the Kp-index and solar activity described by the solar radio flux F10.7. The model describes the most probable spatial distribution and temporal variability of the externally forced TEC anomalies assuming that they depend mainly on latitude, Kp-index, F10.7 and LT. The anomalies are expressed by the relative deviation of the TEC from its 15-day mean, rTEC, as the mean value is calculated from the 15 preceding days. The approach for building this regional model is similar to that of the global TEC model reported by Mukhtarov et al. (2013a) however it includes two important improvements related to short-term variability of the solar activity and amended geomagnetic forcing by using a "modified" Kp index. The quality assessment of the new constructing model procedure in terms of modeling error calculated for the period of 1999-2015 indicates significant improvement in accordance with the global TEC model (Mukhtarov et al., 2013a). The short-term prediction capabilities of the model based on the error calculations for 2016 are improved as well. In order to demonstrate how the model is able to reproduce the rTEC response to external forcing three geomagnetic storms, accompanied also with short-term solar activity variations, which occur at different seasons and solar activity conditions are presented.

Evidence for a possible modern and mid-Holocene solar influence on climate from Lake Titicaca, South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Theissen, K. M.; Dunbar, R. B.

2005-12-01

In tropical regions, there are few paleoclimate archives with the necessary resolution to investigate climate variability at interannual-to-decadal timescales prior to the onset of the instrumental record. Interannual variability associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is well documented in the instrumental record and the importance of the precessional forcing of millennial variability has been established in studies of tropical paleoclimate records. In contrast, decade-to-century variability is still poorly understood. Here, we examine interannual to decadal variability in the northern Altiplano of South America using digital image analysis of a floating interval of varved sediments of middle Holocene age (~6160-6310 yr BP) from Lake Titicaca. Multi-taper method (MTM) and wavelet frequency-domain analyses were performed on a time series generated from a gray-scaled digital image of the mm-thick laminations. Our results indicate significant power at a decadal periodicity (10-12 years) associated with the Schwabe cycle of solar activity. Frequency-domain analysis also indicates power at 2-2.5 year periodicities associated with ENSO. Similarly, spectral analysis of a 75 year instrumental record of Titicaca lake level shows significant power at both solar and ENSO periodicities. Although both of the examined records are short, our results imply that during both the mid-Holocene and modern times, solar and ENSO variability may have contributed to high frequency climate fluctuations over the northern Altiplano. We suspect that solar influence on large-scale atmospheric circulation features may account for the decadal variability in the mid-Holocene and present-day water balance of the Altiplano.

Revisiting a possible relationship between solar activity and Earth rotation variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abarca del Rio, R.; Gambis, D.

2011-10-01

A variety of studies have searched to establish a possible relationship between the solar activity and earth variations (Danjon, 1958-1962; Challinor, 1971; Currie, 1980, Gambis, 1990). We are revisiting previous studies (Bourget et al, 1992, Abarca del Rio et al, 2003, Marris et al, 2004) concerning the possible relationship between solar activity variability and length of day (LOD) variations at decadal time scales. Assuming that changes in AAM for the entire atmosphere are accompanied by equal, but opposite, changes in the angular momentum of the earth it is possible to infer changes in LOD from global AAM time series, through the relation : delta (LOD) (ms) = 1.68 10^29 delta(AAM) (kgm2/s) (Rosen and Salstein, 1983), where δ(LOD) is given in milliseconds. Given the close relationship at seasonal to interannual time's scales between LOD and the Atmospheric Angular Momentum (AAM) (see Abarca del Rio et al., 2003) it is possible to infer from century long atmospheric simulations what may have been the variability in the associated LOD variability throughout the last century. In the absence of a homogeneous century long LOD time series, we take advantage of the recent atmospheric reanalyzes extending since 1871 (Compo, Whitaker and Sardeshmukh, 2006). The atmospheric data (winds) of these reanalyzes allow computing AAM up to the top of the atmosphere; though here only troposphere data (up to 100 hPa) was taken into account.

Probing Stellar Dynamics With Space Photometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García, Rafael A.; Salabert, D.; Ballot, J.; Beck, P. G.; Bigot, L.; Corsaro, E.; Creevey, O.; Egeland, R.; Jiménez, A.; Mathur, S.; Metcalfe, T.; do Nascimento, J.; Pallé, P. L.; Pérez Hernández, F.; Regulo, C.

2016-08-01

The surface magnetic field has substantial influence on various stellar properties that can be probed through various techniques. With the advent of new space-borne facilities such as CoRoT and Kepler, uninterrupted long high-precision photometry is available for hundred of thousand of stars. This number will substantially grow through the forthcoming TESS and PLATO missions. The unique Kepler observations -covering up to 4 years with a 30-min cadence- allows studying stellar variability with different origins such as pulsations, convection, surface rotation, or magnetism at several time scales from hours to years. We study the photospheric magnetic activity of solar-like stars by means of the variability induced in the observed signal by starspots crossing the visible disk. We constructed a solar photometric magnetic activity proxy, Sph from SPM/VIRGO/SoHO, as if the Sun was a distant star and we compare it with several solar well-known magnetic proxies. The results validate this approach. Thus, we compute the Sph proxy for a set of CoRoT and Kepler solar-like stars for which pulsations were already detected. After characterizing the rotation and the magnetic properties of 300 solar-like stars, we use their seismic properties to characterize 18 solar analogs for which we study their magnetism. This allows us to put the Sun into context of its siblings.

Non-Stationary Effects and Cross Correlations in Solar Activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nefedyev, Yuri; Panischev, Oleg; Demin, Sergey

2016-07-01

In this paper within the framework of the Flicker-Noise Spectroscopy (FNS) we consider the dynamic properties of the solar activity by analyzing the Zurich sunspot numbers. As is well-known astrophysics objects are the non-stationary open systems, whose evolution are the quite individual and have the alternation effects. The main difference of FNS compared to other related methods is the separation of the original signal reflecting the dynamics of solar activity into three frequency bands: system-specific "resonances" and their interferential contributions at lower frequencies, chaotic "random walk" ("irregularity-jump") components at larger frequencies, and chaotic "irregularity-spike" (inertial) components in the highest frequency range. Specific parameters corresponding to each of the bands are introduced and calculated. These irregularities as well as specific resonance frequencies are considered as the information carriers on every hierarchical level of the evolution of a complex natural system with intermittent behavior, consecutive alternation of rapid chaotic changes in the values of dynamic variables on small time intervals with small variations of the values on longer time intervals ("laminar" phases). The jump and spike irregularities are described by power spectra and difference moments (transient structural functions) of the second order. FNS allows revealing the most crucial points of the solar activity dynamics by means of "spikiness" factor. It is shown that this variable behaves as the predictor of crucial changes of the sunspot number dynamics, particularly when the number comes up to maximum value. The change of averaging interval allows revealing the non-stationary effects depending by 11-year cycle and by inside processes in a cycle. To consider the cross correlations between the different variables of solar activity we use the Zurich sunspot numbers and the sequence of corona's radiation energy. The FNS-approach allows extracting the information about cross correlation dynamics between the signals from separate points of the studied system. The 3D cross correlators and their plain projections allow revealing the periodic laws of solar evolution. Work was supported by grants RFBR 15-02-01638-a and 16-02-00496-a.

Costs of solar and wind power variability for reducing CO2 emissions.

PubMed

Lueken, Colleen; Cohen, Gilbert E; Apt, Jay

2012-09-04

We compare the power output from a year of electricity generation data from one solar thermal plant, two solar photovoltaic (PV) arrays, and twenty Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) wind farms. The analysis shows that solar PV electricity generation is approximately one hundred times more variable at frequencies on the order of 10(-3) Hz than solar thermal electricity generation, and the variability of wind generation lies between that of solar PV and solar thermal. We calculate the cost of variability of the different solar power sources and wind by using the costs of ancillary services and the energy required to compensate for its variability and intermittency, and the cost of variability per unit of displaced CO(2) emissions. We show the costs of variability are highly dependent on both technology type and capacity factor. California emissions data were used to calculate the cost of variability per unit of displaced CO(2) emissions. Variability cost is greatest for solar PV generation at $8-11 per MWh. The cost of variability for solar thermal generation is $5 per MWh, while that of wind generation in ERCOT was found to be on average $4 per MWh. Variability adds ~$15/tonne CO(2) to the cost of abatement for solar thermal power, $25 for wind, and $33-$40 for PV.

Phase space representation of neutron monitor count rate and atmospheric electric field in relation to solar activity in cycles 21 and 22.

PubMed

Silva, H G; Lopes, I

Heliospheric modulation of galactic cosmic rays links solar cycle activity with neutron monitor count rate on earth. A less direct relation holds between neutron monitor count rate and atmospheric electric field because different atmospheric processes, including fluctuations in the ionosphere, are involved. Although a full quantitative model is still lacking, this link is supported by solid statistical evidence. Thus, a connection between the solar cycle activity and atmospheric electric field is expected. To gain a deeper insight into these relations, sunspot area (NOAA, USA), neutron monitor count rate (Climax, Colorado, USA), and atmospheric electric field (Lisbon, Portugal) are presented here in a phase space representation. The period considered covers two solar cycles (21, 22) and extends from 1978 to 1990. Two solar maxima were observed in this dataset, one in 1979 and another in 1989, as well as one solar minimum in 1986. Two main observations of the present study were: (1) similar short-term topological features of the phase space representations of the three variables, (2) a long-term phase space radius synchronization between the solar cycle activity, neutron monitor count rate, and potential gradient (confirmed by absolute correlation values above ~0.8). Finally, the methodology proposed here can be used for obtaining the relations between other atmospheric parameters (e.g., solar radiation) and solar cycle activity.

Synchronization of Human Autonomic Nervous System Rhythms with Geomagnetic Activity in Human Subjects

PubMed Central

McCraty, Rollin; Atkinson, Mike; Stolc, Viktor; Alabdulgader, Abdullah A.; Vainoras, Alfonsas

2017-01-01

A coupling between geomagnetic activity and the human nervous system’s function was identified by virtue of continuous monitoring of heart rate variability (HRV) and the time-varying geomagnetic field over a 31-day period in a group of 10 individuals who went about their normal day-to-day lives. A time series correlation analysis identified a response of the group’s autonomic nervous systems to various dynamic changes in the solar, cosmic ray, and ambient magnetic field. Correlation coefficients and p values were calculated between the HRV variables and environmental measures during three distinct time periods of environmental activity. There were significant correlations between the group’s HRV and solar wind speed, Kp, Ap, solar radio flux, cosmic ray counts, Schumann resonance power, and the total variations in the magnetic field. In addition, the time series data were time synchronized and normalized, after which all circadian rhythms were removed. It was found that the participants’ HRV rhythms synchronized across the 31-day period at a period of approximately 2.5 days, even though all participants were in separate locations. Overall, this suggests that daily autonomic nervous system activity not only responds to changes in solar and geomagnetic activity, but is synchronized with the time-varying magnetic fields associated with geomagnetic field-line resonances and Schumann resonances. PMID:28703754

Pole-equator difference and the variability of the brightness of the chromospheric CaII-K-network elements in quiet regions over the solar cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kariyappa, R.

1995-01-01

The dependence of the brightness of chromospheric network elements on latitude was investigated for quiet solar regions. Calibrated photographic CaII K-spectroheliograms were used to compare the variation in brightness at the center of the disk with higher latitude of chromospheric network elements in a quiet region as a function of solar activity. It was found that there was no significant difference in brightness between the center of the solar disk and higher latitude. It is concluded that the brightness of the chromospheric network elements in a quiet region does not depend on the latitude, but that the variation in the intensity enhancement is related to the level of solar activity.

Day-to-day variability of foEs in the equatorial ionosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Somoye, E. O.; Akala, A. O.; Adeniji-Adele, R. A.; Onori, E. O.; Ogwala, A.; Karimu, A. O.

2013-09-01

seasonal, and solar cycle effects of the variability (VR) of the critical frequency of sporadic E layer (foEsq) are investigated at Ibadan (7.4°N, 3.9°E, 6°S dip) in the African sector during high solar activity (HSA) year of 1958 (Rz = 181), moderate solar activity (MSA) year of 1973 (Rz = 30), and low solar activity (LSA) year of 1965 (Rz = 17). The diurnal variation of foEsq VR is characterized by post-midnight (32%-78%) and pre-midnight (20%-84%) peaks during high solar activity (HSA), the only epoch of the three showing these peaks and a diurnal trend. While the daytime foEsq VRs of the three epochs show no seasonal trend, pre-midnight and post-midnight, the foEsq VRs during HSA and LSA show seasonal trends. Similarity is observed in the curve of reciprocal of percentage occurrence of Esq and that of foEsq VR, indicating inverse variation of percentage occurrence and foEsq VR. Longitudinal influence is observed in the diurnal variation of HSA and MSA July foEsq VR of Ibadan (7.4°N, 3.9°E, 6°S dip) in the African sector, which is in the neighborhood of the Greenwich Meridian (GM); Singapore (1.3°N, 108.3°E, 17.6°S dip) in the Asian sector, east of GM; and Huancayo (12°S, 284.7°E, 1.90 dip) in the American sector, west of GM.

Solar variability: Implications for global change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lean, Judith; Rind, David

1994-01-01

Solar variability is examined in search of implications for global change. The topics covered include the following: solar variation modification of global surface temperature; the significance of solar variability with respect to future climate change; and methods of reducing the uncertainty of the potential amplitude of solar variability on longer time scales.

SSBUV and NOAA-11 SBUV/2 Solar Variability Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeLand, Matthew T.; Cebula, Richard P.; Hilsenrath, Ernest

1998-01-01

The Shuttle SBUV (SSBUV) and NOAA-11 SBUV/2 instruments measured solar spectral UV irradiance during the maximum and declining phase of solar cycle 22. The SSB UV data accurately represent the absolute solar UV irradiance between 200-405 nm, and also show the long-term variations during eight flights between October 1989 and January 1996. These data have been used to correct long-term sensitivity changes in the NOAA-11 SBUV/2 data, which provide a near-daily record of solar UV variations over the 170-400 nm region between December 1988 and October 1994. The NOAA-11 data demonstrate the evolution of short-term solar UV activity during solar cycle 22.

The Floor in the Solar Wind Magnetic Field Revisited

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-05-07

index of geomagnetic activity (Svalgaard and Cliver, 2005). This empir- ical/historical evidence for a lower limit or floor in B was substantiated by...with the model of Fisk and Schwadron (2001) for the reversal of the polar magnetic fields at solar maximum. The Fisk and Schwadron model, based on the...interdiurnal variability [IDV] index of geomagnetic activity (Svalgaard and Cliver, 2005, 2010). DM, for minima preceding cycles 22 – 24, is the absolute

Heliospheric Impact on Cosmic Rays Modulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tiwari, Bhupendra Kumar

2016-07-01

Heliospheric Impact on Cosmic RaysModulation B. K. Tiwari Department of Physics, A. P. S. University, Rewa (M.P.), btiwari70@yahoo.com Cosmic rays (CRs) flux at earth is modulated by the heliosphereric magnetic field and the structure of the heliosphere, controls by solar outputs and their variability. Sunspots numbers (SSN) is often treated as a primary indicator of solar activity (SA). GCRs entering the helioshphere are affected by the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and solar wind speed, their modulation varies with the varying solar activity. The observation based on data recoded from Omniweb data Centre for solar- interplanetary activity indices and monthly mean count rate of cosmic ray intensity (CRI) data from neutron monitors of different cut-off rigidities(Rc) (Moscow Rc=2.42Gv and Oulu Rc=0.80Gv). During minimum solar activity periodof solar cycle 23/24, the sun is remarkably quiet, weakest strength of the IMF and least dense and slowest, solar wind speed, whereas, in 2003, highest value of yearly averaged solar wind speed (~568 Km/sec) associated with several coronal holes, which generate high speed wind stream has been recorded. It is observed that GCRs fluxes reduces and is high anti-correlated with SSN (0.80) and IMF (0.86). CRI modulation produces by a strong solar flare, however, CME associated solar flare produce more disturbance in the interplanetary medium as well as in geomagnetic field. It is found that count rate of cosmic ray intensity and solar- interplanetary parameters were inverse correlated and solar indices were positive correlated. Keywords- Galactic Cosmic rays (GCRs), Sunspot number (SSN), Solar activity (SA), Coronal Mass Ejection (CME), Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF)

Evolution of the solar radius during the solar cycle 24 rise time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meftah, Mustapha

2015-08-01

One of the real motivations to observe the solar radius is the suspicion that it might be variable. Possible temporal variations of the solar radius are important as an indicator of internal energy storage and as a mechanism for changes in the total solar irradiance. Measurements of the solar radius are of great interest within the scope of the debate on the role of the Sun in climate change. Solar energy input dominates the surface processes (climate, ocean circulation, wind, etc.) of the Earth. Thus, it appears important to know on what time scales the solar radius and other fundamental solar parameters, like the total solar irradiance, vary in order to better understand and assess the origin and mechanisms of the terrestrial climate changes. The current solar cycle is probably going to be the weakest in 100 years, which is an unprecedented opportunity for studying the variability of the solar radius during this period. This paper presents more than four years of solar radius measurements obtained with a satellite and a ground-based observatory during the solar cycle 24 rise time. Our measurements show the benefit of simultaneous measurements obtained from ground and space observatories. Space observations are a priori most favourable, however, space entails also technical challenges, a harsh environment, and a finite mission lifetime. The evolution of the solar radius during the rising phase of the solar cycle 24 show small variations that are out of phase with solar activity.

Soft X-ray variability over the present minimum of solar activity as observed by SphinX

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gburek, S.; Siarkowski, M.; Kepa, A.; Sylwester, J.; Kowalinski, M.; Bakala, J.; Podgorski, P.; Kordylewski, Z.; Plocieniak, S.; Sylwester, B.; Trzebinski, W.; Kuzin, S.

2011-04-01

Solar Photometer in X-rays (SphinX) is an instrument designed to observe the Sun in X-rays in the energy range 0.85-15.00 keV. SphinX is incorporated within the Russian TESIS X and EUV telescope complex aboard the CORONAS-Photon satellite which was launched on January 30, 2009 at 13:30 UT from the Plesetsk Cosmodrome, northern Russia. Since February, 2009 SphinX has been measuring solar X-ray radiation nearly continuously. The principle of SphinX operation and the content of the instrument data archives is studied. Issues related to dissemination of SphinX calibration, data, repository mirrors locations, types of data and metadata are discussed. Variability of soft X-ray solar flux is studied using data collected by SphinX over entire mission duration.

The association between phenomena on the sun, geomagnetic activity, meteorological variables, and cardiovascular characteristic of patients with myocardial infarction.

PubMed

Vencloviene, Jone; Babarskiene, Ruta; Slapikas, Rimvydas; Sakalyte, Gintare

2013-09-01

It has been found that solar and geomagnetic activity affects the cardiovascular system. Some evidence has been reported on the increase in the rate of myocardial infarction, stroke and myocardial infarction related deaths during geomagnetic storms. We investigated the association between cardiovascular characteristics of patients, admitted for myocardial infarction with ST elevation (STEMI), and geomagnetic activity (GMA), solar proton events (SPE), solar flares, and meteorological variables during admission. The data of 1,979 patients hospitalized at the Hospital of Lithuanian University of Health Sciences (Kaunas) were analyzed. We evaluated the association between environmental variables and patient's characteristics by multivariate logistic regression, controlling patient's gender and age. Two days after geomagnetic storms the risk of STEMI was over 1.5 times increased in patients who had a medical history of myocardial infarction, stable angina, renal or pulmonary diseases. The dose-response association between GMA level and STEMI risk for patients with renal diseases in history was observed. Two days after SPE the risk of STEMI in patients with stable angina in anamnesis was increased over 1.5 times, adjusting by GMA level. The SPE were associated with an increase of risk for patients with renal diseases in history. This study confirms the strongest effect of phenomena in the Sun in high risk patients.

The association between phenomena on the Sun, geomagnetic activity, meteorological variables, and cardiovascular characteristic of patients with myocardial infarction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vencloviene, Jone; Babarskiene, Ruta; Slapikas, Rimvydas; Sakalyte, Gintare

2013-09-01

It has been found that solar and geomagnetic activity affects the cardiovascular system. Some evidence has been reported on the increase in the rate of myocardial infarction, stroke and myocardial infarction related deaths during geomagnetic storms. We investigated the association between cardiovascular characteristics of patients, admitted for myocardial infarction with ST elevation (STEMI), and geomagnetic activity (GMA), solar proton events (SPE), solar flares, and meteorological variables during admission. The data of 1,979 patients hospitalized at the Hospital of Lithuanian University of Health Sciences (Kaunas) were analyzed. We evaluated the association between environmental variables and patient's characteristics by multivariate logistic regression, controlling patient's gender and age. Two days after geomagnetic storms the risk of STEMI was over 1.5 times increased in patients who had a medical history of myocardial infarction, stable angina, renal or pulmonary diseases. The dose-response association between GMA level and STEMI risk for patients with renal diseases in history was observed. Two days after SPE the risk of STEMI in patients with stable angina in anamnesis was increased over 1.5 times, adjusting by GMA level. The SPE were associated with an increase of risk for patients with renal diseases in history. This study confirms the strongest effect of phenomena in the Sun in high risk patients.

Solar Variability Magnitudes and Timescales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kopp, Greg

2015-08-01

The Sun’s net radiative output varies on timescales of minutes to many millennia. The former are directly observed as part of the on-going 37-year long total solar irradiance climate data record, while the latter are inferred from solar proxy and stellar evolution models. Since the Sun provides nearly all the energy driving the Earth’s climate system, changes in the sunlight reaching our planet can have - and have had - significant impacts on life and civilizations.Total solar irradiance has been measured from space since 1978 by a series of overlapping instruments. These have shown changes in the spatially- and spectrally-integrated radiant energy at the top of the Earth’s atmosphere from timescales as short as minutes to as long as a solar cycle. The Sun’s ~0.01% variations over a few minutes are caused by the superposition of convection and oscillations, and even occasionally by a large flare. Over days to weeks, changing surface activity affects solar brightness at the ~0.1% level. The 11-year solar cycle has comparable irradiance variations with peaks near solar maxima.Secular variations are harder to discern, being limited by instrument stability and the relatively short duration of the space-borne record. Proxy models of the Sun based on cosmogenic isotope records and inferred from Earth climate signatures indicate solar brightness changes over decades to millennia, although the magnitude of these variations depends on many assumptions. Stellar evolution affects yet longer timescales and is responsible for the greatest solar variabilities.In this talk I will summarize the Sun’s variability magnitudes over different temporal ranges, showing examples relevant for climate studies as well as detections of exo-solar planets transiting Sun-like stars.

Studies conducted as a search for physical mechanisms relating solar variability and the troposphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, S. T. (Editor)

1981-01-01

Chains of causative mechanisms that are hypothesized to relate solar variability to the behavior of the Earth's lower atmosphere were assessed. Solar variations believed most likely to constitute the forcing functions in hypothesized solar terrestrial atmosphere chain, changes in the Earth's atmospheric electrical characteristics due to solar variability, and the observed variations in atmospheric behavior that are influenced by solar variability were also examined.

Modeling study of the ionospheric responses to the quasi-biennial oscillations of the sun and stratosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jack C.; Tsai-Lin, Rong; Chang, Loren C.; Wu, Qian; Lin, Charles C. H.; Yue, Jia

2018-06-01

The Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) is a persistent oscillation in the zonal mean zonal winds of the low latitude middle atmosphere that is driven by breaking planetary and gravity waves with a period near two years. The atmospheric tides that dominate the dynamics of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere region (MLT, between heights of 70-120 km) are excited in the troposphere and stratosphere, and propagate through QBO-modulated zonal mean zonal wind fields. This allows the MLT tidal response to also be modulated by the QBO, with implications for ionospheric/thermospheric variability. Interannual oscillations in solar radiation can also directly drive the variations in the ionosphere with similar periodicities through the photoionization. Many studies have observed the connection between the solar activity and QBO signal in ionospheric features such as total electron content (TEC). In this research, we develop an empirical model to isolate stratospheric QBO-related tidal variability in the MLT diurnal and semidiurnal tides using values from assimilated TIMED satellite data. Migrating tidal fields corresponding to stratospheric QBO eastward and westward phases, as well as with the quasi-biennial variations in solar activity isolated by the Multi-dimensional Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (MEEMD) analysis from Hilbert-Huang Transform (HHT), are then used to drive the NCAR Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIE-GCM). The numerical experiment results indicate that the ionospheric QBO is mainly driven by the solar quasi-biennial variations during the solar maximum, since the solar quasi-biennial variation amplitude is directly proportionate to the solar cycle. The ionospheric QBO in the model is sensitive to both the stratospheric QBO and solar quasi-biennial variations during the solar minimum, with solar effects still playing a stronger role.

Statistical link between external climate forcings and modes of ocean variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malik, Abdul; Brönnimann, Stefan; Perona, Paolo

2017-07-01

In this study we investigate statistical link between external climate forcings and modes of ocean variability on inter-annual (3-year) to centennial (100-year) timescales using de-trended semi-partial-cross-correlation analysis technique. To investigate this link we employ observations (AD 1854-1999), climate proxies (AD 1600-1999), and coupled Atmosphere-Ocean-Chemistry Climate Model simulations with SOCOL-MPIOM (AD 1600-1999). We find robust statistical evidence that Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO) has intrinsic positive correlation with solar activity in all datasets employed. The strength of the relationship between AMO and solar activity is modulated by volcanic eruptions and complex interaction among modes of ocean variability. The observational dataset reveals that El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) has statistically significant negative intrinsic correlation with solar activity on decadal to multi-decadal timescales (16-27-year) whereas there is no evidence of a link on a typical ENSO timescale (2-7-year). In the observational dataset, the volcanic eruptions do not have a link with AMO on a typical AMO timescale (55-80-year) however the long-term datasets (proxies and SOCOL-MPIOM output) show that volcanic eruptions have intrinsic negative correlation with AMO on inter-annual to multi-decadal timescales. The Pacific decadal oscillation has no link with solar activity, however, it has positive intrinsic correlation with volcanic eruptions on multi-decadal timescales (47-54-year) in reconstruction and decadal to multi-decadal timescales (16-32-year) in climate model simulations. We also find evidence of a link between volcanic eruptions and ENSO, however, the sign of relationship is not consistent between observations/proxies and climate model simulations.

The Sodium Tail of the Moon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Matta, M.; Smith, S.; Baumgardner, J.; Wilson, J.; Martinis, C.; Mendillo, M.

2009-01-01

During the few days centered about new Moon, the lunar surface is optically hidden from Earth-based observers. However, the Moon still offers an observable: an extended sodium tail. The lunar sodium tail is the escaping "hot" component of a coma-like exosphere of sodium generated by photon-stimulated desorption, solar wind sputtering and meteoroid impact. Neutral sodium atoms escaping lunar gravity experience solar radiation pressure that drives them into the anti-solar direction forming a comet-like tail. During new Moon time, the geometry of the Sun, Moon and Earth is such that the anti-sunward sodium flux is perturbed by the terrestrial gravitational field resulting in its focusing into a dense core that extends beyond the Earth. An all-sky camera situated at the El Leoncito Observatory (CASLEO) in Argentina has been successfully imaging this tail through a sodium filter at each lunation since April 2006. This paper reports on the results of the brightness of the lunar sodium tail spanning 31 lunations between April 2006 and September 2008. Brightness variability trends are compared with both sporadic and shower meteor activity, solar wind proton energy flux and solar near ultra violet (NUV) patterns for possible correlations. Results suggest minimal variability in the brightness of the observed lunar sodium tail, generally uncorrelated with any single source, yet consistent with a multi-year period of minimal solar activity and non-intense meteoric fluxes.

Mid-Term Quasi-Periodicities and Solar Cycle Variation of the White-Light Corona from 18.5 Years (1996.0 - 2014.5) of LASCO Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barlyaeva, T.; Lamy, P.; Llebaria, A.

2015-07-01

We report on the analysis of the temporal evolution of the solar corona based on 18.5 years (1996.0 - 2014.5) of white-light observations with the SOHO/LASCO-C2 coronagraph. This evolution is quantified by generating spatially integrated values of the K-corona radiance, first globally, then in latitudinal sectors. The analysis considers time series of monthly values and 13-month running means of the radiance as well as several indices and proxies of solar activity. We study correlation, wavelet time-frequency spectra, and cross-coherence and phase spectra between these quantities. Our results give a detailed insight on how the corona responds to solar activity over timescales ranging from mid-term quasi-periodicities (also known as quasi-biennial oscillations or QBOs) to the long-term 11 year solar cycle. The amplitude of the variation between successive solar maxima and minima (modulation factor) very much depends upon the strength of the cycle and upon the heliographic latitude. An asymmetry is observed during the ascending phase of Solar Cycle 24, prominently in the royal and polar sectors, with north leading. Most prominent QBOs are a quasi-annual period during the maximum phase of Solar Cycle 23 and a shorter period, seven to eight months, in the ascending and maximum phases of Solar Cycle 24. They share the same properties as the solar QBOs: variable periodicity, intermittency, asymmetric development in the northern and southern solar hemispheres, and largest amplitudes during the maximum phase of solar cycles. The strongest correlation of the temporal variations of the coronal radiance - and consequently the coronal electron density - is found with the total magnetic flux. Considering that the morphology of the solar corona is also directly controlled by the topology of the magnetic field, this correlation reinforces the view that they are intimately connected, including their variability at all timescales.

Silicon Schottky photovoltaic diodes for solar energy conversion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anderson, W. A.

1975-01-01

Various factors in Schottky barrier solar cell fabrication are evaluated in order to improve understanding of the current flow mechanism and to isolate processing variables that improve efficiency. Results of finger design, substrate resistivity, surface finishing and activation energy studies are detailed. An increased fill factor was obtained by baking of the vacuum system to remove moisture.

Variability of ULF wave power at the magnetopause: a study at low latitude with Cluster data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cornilleau-Wehrlin, N.; Grison, B.; Belmont, G.; Rezeau, L.; Chanteur, G.; Robert, P.; Canu, P.

2012-04-01

Strong ULF wave activity has been observed at magnetopause crossings since a long time. Those turbulent-like waves are possible contributors to particle penetration from the Solar Wind to the Magnetosphere through the magnetopause. Statistical studies have been performed to understand under which conditions the ULF wave power is the most intense and thus the waves can be the most efficient for particle transport from one region to the other. Clearly the solar wind pressure organizes the data, the stronger the pressure, the higher the ULF power (Attié et al 2008). Double STAR-Cluster comparison has shown that ULF wave power is stronger at low latitude than at high latitude (Cornilleau-Wehrlin et al, 2008). The different studies performed have not, up to now, shown a stronger power in the vicinity of local noon. Nevertheless under identical activity conditions, the variability of this power, even at a given location in latitude and local time is very high. The present work intends at understanding this variability by means of the multi spacecraft mission Cluster. The data used are from spring 2008, while Cluster was crossing the magnetopause at low latitude, in particularly quite Solar Wind conditions. The first region of interest of this study is the sub-solar point vicinity where the long wavelength surface wave effects are most unlikely.

Determination of Differential Emission Measure Distribution of Coronal Structures Observed by SphinX During Recent Minimum of Solar Activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kepa, Anna; Gburek, Szymon; Siarkowski, Marek; Sylwester, Barbara; Sylwester, Janusz; Kowalinski, Miroslaw

SphinX is a high-sensitivity soft X-ray spectrophotometer which measures soft X-ray spectra in the energy range between 0.8 keV and 15 keV. From February to November 2009 the instrument has observed unusually quiet solar coronal emission as well as a number of weak solar flares. Based on SphinX spectra it is possible to study the differential emission measure distributions (DEM) in the temperature range roughly between 1 MK and 10 MK. The aim of the present study is to unveil DEM plasma distributions for selected activity conditions and analyze their variability.

Dynamic Power Spectral Analysis of Solar Measurements from Photospheric, Chromospheric, and Coronal Sources

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bouwer, S. D.; Pap, J.; Donnelly, R. F.

1990-01-01

An important aspect in the power spectral analysis of solar variability is the quasistationary and quasiperiodic nature of solar periodicities. In other words, the frequency, phase, and amplitude of solar periodicities vary on time scales ranging from active region lifetimes to solar cycle time scales. Here, researchers employ a dynamic, or running, power spectral density analysis to determine many periodicities and their time-varying nature in the projected area of active sunspot groups (S sub act). The Solar Maximum Mission/Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor (SMM/ACRIM) total solar irradiance (S), the Nimbus-7 MgII center-to-wing ratio (R (MgII sub c/w)), the Ottawa 10.7 cm flux (F sub 10.7), and the GOES background x ray flux (X sub b) for the maximum, descending, and minimum portions of solar cycle 21 (i.e., 1980 to 1986) are used. The technique dramatically illustrates several previously unrecognized periodicities. For example, a relatively stable period at about 51 days has been found in those indices which are related to emerging magnetic fields. The majority of solar periodicities, particularly around 27, 150 and 300 days, are quasiperiodic because they vary in amplitude and frequency throughout the solar cycle. Finally, it is shown that there are clear differences between the power spectral densities of solar measurements from photospheric, chromospheric, and coronal sources.

Minimal Magnetic States of the Sun and the Solar Wind: Implications for the Origin of the Slow Solar Wind

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cliver, E. W.; von Steiger, R.

2017-09-01

During the last decade it has been proposed that both the Sun and the solar wind have minimum magnetic states, lowest order levels of magnetism that underlie the 11-yr cycle as well as longer-term variability. Here we review the literature on basal magnetic states at the Sun and in the heliosphere and draw a connection between the two based on the recent deep 2008-2009 minimum between cycles 23 and 24. In particular, we consider the implications of the low solar activity during the recent minimum for the origin of the slow solar wind.

VIRGO: Experiment for helioseismology and solar irradiance monitoring

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Froehlich, Claus; Andersen, Bo N.

1995-01-01

The scientific objectives of the variability of solar irradiance and gravity oscillations (VIRGO) experiment are as follows: to determine the characteristics of pressure and internal gravity oscillations by observing irradiance and radiance variations; to measure the solar total and spectral irradiance, and to quantify their variability. Helioseismological methods can be applied to these data in order to probe the solar interior. Certain convection characteristics and their interaction with magnetic fields will be studied from the results of the irradiance monitoring and from the comparison of the amplitudes and phases of the oscillations as observed from the brightness by VIRGO and from velocity by the global oscillations at low frequency (GOLF) experiment. The VIRGO experiment contains two active-cavity radiometers that monitor the solar constant, two three-channel sunphotometers that measure the spectral irradiance, and a low resolution imager with 12 pixels that measures the radiance distribution over the solar disk at 500 nm. The scientific objectives of VIRGO are presented, the instruments and the data acquisition and control system are described, and their measured performances are given.

The Little Ice Age and Solar Activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Velasco Herrera, Victor Manuel; Leal Silva, C. M. Carmen; Velasco Herrera, Graciela

We analyze the ice winter severity index on the Baltic region since 1501-1995. We found that the variability of this index is modulated among other factors by the secular solar activity. The little ice ages that have appeared in the North Hemisphere occurred during periods of low solar activity. Seemingly our star is experiencing a new quiet stage compared with Maunder or Dalton minimum, this is important because it is estimated that even small changes in weather can represent a great impact in ice index. These results are relevant since ice is a very important element in the climate system of the Baltic region and it can affect directly or indirectly many of the oceanographic, climatic, eco-logical, economical and cultural patterns.

Evaluation of solar irradiance models for climate studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ball, William; Yeo, Kok-Leng; Krivova, Natalie; Solanki, Sami; Unruh, Yvonne; Morrill, Jeff

2015-04-01

Instruments on satellites have been observing both Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) and Spectral Solar Irradiance (SSI), mainly in the ultraviolet (UV), since 1978. Models were developed to reproduce the observed variability and to compute the variability at wavelengths that were not observed or had an uncertainty too high to determine an accurate rotational or solar cycle variability. However, various models and measurements show different solar cycle SSI variability that lead to different modelled responses of ozone and temperature in the stratosphere, mainly due to the different UV variability in each model, and the global energy balance. The NRLSSI and SATIRE-S models are the most comprehensive reconstructions of solar irradiance variability for the period from 1978 to the present day. But while NRLSSI and SATIRE-S show similar solar cycle variability below 250 nm, between 250 and 400 nm SATIRE-S typically displays 50% larger variability, which is however, still significantly less then suggested by recent SORCE data. Due to large uncertainties and inconsistencies in some observational datasets, it is difficult to determine in a simple way which model is likely to be closer to the true solar variability. We review solar irradiance variability measurements and modelling and employ new analysis that sheds light on the causes of the discrepancies between the two models and with the observations.

Nimbus-7 ERB Solar Analysis Tape (ESAT) user's guide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Major, Eugene; Hickey, John R.; Kyle, H. Lee; Alton, Bradley M.; Vallette, Brenda J.

1988-01-01

Seven years and five months of Nimbus-7 Earth Radiation Budget (ERB) solar data are available on a single ERB Solar Analysis Tape (ESAT). The period covered is November 16, 1978 through March 31, 1986. The Nimbus-7 satellite performs approximately 14 orbits per day and the ERB solar telescope observes the sun once per orbit as the satellite crosses the southern terminator. The solar data were carefully calibrated and screened. Orbital and daily mean values are given for the total solar irradiance plus other spectral intervals (10 solar channels in all). In addition, selected solar activity indicators are included on the ESAT. The ESAT User's Guide is an update of the previous ESAT User's Guide (NASA TM 86143) and includes more detailed information on the solar data calibration, screening procedures, updated solar data plots, and applications to solar variability. Details of the tape format, including source code to access ESAT, are included.

SUITS/SWUSV: a small-size mission to address solar spectral variability, space weather and solar-climate relations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Damé, Luc; Keckhut, Philippe; Hauchecorne, Alain; Meftah, Mustapha; Bekki, Slimane

2016-07-01

We present the SUITS/SWUSV microsatellite mission investigation: "Solar Ultraviolet Influence on Troposphere/Stratosphere, a Space Weather & Ultraviolet Solar Variability" mission. SUITS/SWUSV was developed to determine the origins of the Sun's activity, understand the flaring process (high energy flare characterization) and onset of CMEs (forecasting). Another major objective is to determine the dynamics and coupling of Earth's atmosphere and its response to solar variability (in particular UV) and terrestrial inputs. It therefore includes the prediction and detection of major eruptions and coronal mass ejections (Lyman-Alpha and Herzberg continuum imaging) the solar forcing on the climate through radiation and their interactions with the local stratosphere (UV spectral irradiance measures from 170 to 400 nm). The mission is proposed on a sun-synchronous polar orbit 18h-6h (for almost constant observing) and proposes a 7 instruments model payload of 65 kg - 65 W with: SUAVE (Solar Ultraviolet Advanced Variability Experiment), an optimized telescope for FUV (Lyman-Alpha) and MUV (200-220 nm Herzberg continuum) imaging (sources of variability); SOLSIM (Solar Spectral Irradiance Monitor), a spectrometer with 0.65 nm spectral resolution from 170 to 340 nm; SUPR (Solar Ultraviolet Passband Radiometers), with UV filter radiometers at Lyman-Alpha, Herzberg, MgII index, CN bandhead and UV bands coverage up to 400 nm; HEBS (High Energy Burst Spectrometers), a large energy coverage (a few tens of keV to a few hundreds of MeV) instrument to characterize large flares; EPT-HET (Electron-Proton Telescope - High Energy Telescope), measuring electrons, protons, and heavy ions over a large energy range; ERBO (Earth Radiative Budget and Ozone) NADIR oriented; and a vector magnetometer. Complete accommodation of the payload has been performed on a PROBA type platform very nicely. Heritage is important both for instruments (SODISM and PREMOS on PICARD, LYRA on PROBA-2, SOLSPEC on ISS,...) and platform (PROBA-2, PROBA-V,...), leading to high TRL levels (>7). SUITS/SWUSV was initially designed in view of the ESA/CAS AO for a Small Mission; it is now envisaged for a joint CNES/NASA opportunity with Europeans and Americans partners for a possible flight in 2021.

Possible external sources of terrestrial cloud cover variability: the solar wind

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voiculescu, Mirela; Usoskin, Ilya; Condurache-Bota, Simona

2014-05-01

Cloud cover plays an important role in the terrestrial radiation budget. The possible influence of the solar activity on cloud cover is still an open question with contradictory answers. An extraterrestrial factor potentially affecting the cloud cover is related to fields associated with solar wind. We focus here on a derived quantity, the interplanetary electric field (IEF), defined as the product between the solar wind speed and the meridional component, Bz, of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) in the Geocentric Solar Magnetospheric (GSM) system. We show that cloud cover at mid-high latitudes systematically correlates with positive IEF, which has a clear energetic input into the atmosphere, but not with negative IEF, in general agreement with predictions of the global electric circuit (GEC)-related mechanism. Since the IEF responds differently to solar activity than, for instance, cosmic ray flux or solar irradiance, we also show that such a study allows distinguishing one solar-driven mechanism of cloud evolution, via the GEC, from others. We also present results showing that the link between cloud cover and IMF varies depending on composition and altitude of clouds.

Statistical Comparison of Anomalous Cosmic Rays and Galactic Cosmic Rays during the Recently Consecutive Unusual Solar Cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, L.; Zhang, H.

2014-12-01

Anomalous cosmic rays (ACRs) carry crucial information on the coupling between solar wind and interstellar medium, as well as cosmic ray modulation within the heliosphere. Due to the distinct origins and modulation processes, the spectra and abundance of ACRs are significantly different from that of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs). Since the launch of NASA's ACE spacecraft in 1997, its CRIS and SIS instruments have continuously recorded GCR and ACR intensities of several elemental heavy-ions, spanning the whole cycle 23 and the cycle 24 maximum. Here we present a statistical comparison of ACR and GCR observed by ACE spacecraft and their possible relation to solar activity. While the differential flux of ACR also exhibits apparent anti-correlation with solar activity level, the flux of the latest prolonged solar minimum (year 2009) is approximately 5% lower than its previous solar minimum (year 1997). And the minimal level of ACR flux appears in year 2004, instead of year 2001 with the strongest solar activities. The negative indexes of the power law spectra within the energy range from 5 to 30 MeV/nuc also vary with time. The spectra get harder during the solar minimum but softer during the solar maximum. The approaching solar minimum of cycle 24 is believed to resemble the Dalton or Gleissberg Minimum with extremely low solar activity (Zolotova and Ponyavin, 2014). Therefore, the different characteristics of ACRs between the coming solar minimum and the previous minimum are also of great interest. Finally, we will also discuss the possible solar-modulation processes which is responsible for different modulation of ACR and GCR, especially the roles played by diffusion and drifts. The comparative analysis will provide valuable insights into the physical modulation process within the heliosphere under opposite solar polarity and variable solar activity levels.

Solar variability datalogger

DOE PAGES

Lave, Matthew; Stein, Joshua; Smith, Ryan

2016-07-28

To address the lack of knowledge of local solar variability, we have developed and deployed a low-cost solar variability datalogger (SVD). While most currently used solar irradiance sensors are expensive pyranometers with high accuracy (relevant for annual energy estimates), low-cost sensors display similar precision (relevant for solar variability) as high-cost pyranometers, even if they are not as accurate. In this work, we present evaluation of various low-cost irradiance sensor types, describe the SVD, and present validation and comparison of the SVD collected data. In conclusion, the low cost and ease of use of the SVD will enable a greater understandingmore » of local solar variability, which will reduce developer and utility uncertainty about the impact of solar photovoltaic (PV) installations and thus will encourage greater penetrations of solar energy.« less

Regional climate impacts of a possible future grand solar minimum.

PubMed

Ineson, Sarah; Maycock, Amanda C; Gray, Lesley J; Scaife, Adam A; Dunstone, Nick J; Harder, Jerald W; Knight, Jeff R; Lockwood, Mike; Manners, James C; Wood, Richard A

2015-06-23

Any reduction in global mean near-surface temperature due to a future decline in solar activity is likely to be a small fraction of projected anthropogenic warming. However, variability in ultraviolet solar irradiance is linked to modulation of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations, suggesting the potential for larger regional surface climate effects. Here, we explore possible impacts through two experiments designed to bracket uncertainty in ultraviolet irradiance in a scenario in which future solar activity decreases to Maunder Minimum-like conditions by 2050. Both experiments show regional structure in the wintertime response, resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation, with enhanced relative cooling over northern Eurasia and the eastern United States. For a high-end decline in solar ultraviolet irradiance, the impact on winter northern European surface temperatures over the late twenty-first century could be a significant fraction of the difference in climate change between plausible AR5 scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations.

Solar activity influences on atmospheric electricity and on some structures in the middle atmosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reiter, Reinhold

1989-01-01

Only processes in the troposphere and the lower stratosphere are reviewed. General aspects of global atmospheric electricity are summarized in Chapter 3 of NCR (1986); Volland (1984) has outlined the overall problems of atmospheric electrodynamics; and Roble and Hays (1982) published a summary of solar effects on the global circuit. The solar variability and its atmospheric effects (overview by Donelly et al, 1987) and the solar-planetary relationships (survey by James et al. 1983) are so extremely complex that only particular results and selected papers of direct relevance or historical importance are compiled herein.

Reconstructing the 11-year solar cycle length from cosmogenic radionuclides for the last 600 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nilsson, Emma; Adolphi, Florian; Mekhaldi, Florian; Muscheler, Raimund

2017-04-01

The cyclic behavior of the solar magnetic field has been known for centuries and the 11-year solar cycle is one of the most important features directly visible on the solar disc. Using sunspot records it is evident that the length of this cycle is variable. A hypothesis of an inverse relationship between the average solar activity level and the solar cycle length has been put forward (e.g. Friis-Christensen & Lassen, 1991), indicating longer solar cycles during periods of low solar activity and vice versa. So far, studies of the behavior of the 11-year solar cycle have largely been limited for the last 4 centuries where observational sunspot data are available. However, cosmogenic radionuclides, such as 10Be and 14C from ice cores and tree rings allow an assessment of the strength of the open solar magnetic field due to its shielding influence on galactic cosmic rays in the heliosphere. Similarly, very strong solar storms can leave their imprint in cosmogenic radionuclide records via solar proton-induced direct production of cosmogenic radionuclides in the Earth atmosphere. Here, we test the hypothesis of an inverse relationship between solar cycle length and the longer-term solar activity level by using cosmogenic radionuclide records as a proxy for solar activity. Our results for the last six centuries suggest significant solar cycle length variations that could exceed the range directly inferred from sunspot records. We discuss the occurrence of SPEs within the 11-year solar cycle from a radionuclide perspective, specifically the largest one known yet, at AD 774-5 (Mekhaldi et al., 2015). References: Friis-Christensen, E. & Lassen, K. Length of the solar-cycle - An indicator of solar activity closely associated with climate. Science 254, 698-700, doi:10.1126/science.254.5032.698 (1991). Mekhaldi, F., Muscheler, R., Adolphi, F., Aldahan, A., Beer, J., McConnell, J. R., Possnert, G., Sigl, M., Svensson, A., Synal, H. A., Welten, K. C. & Woodruff, T. E. Multiradionuclide evidence for the solar origin of the cosmic-ray events of AD 774/5 and 993/4. Nature Communications 6: 8, doi:10.1038/ncomms9611 (2015).

The origin of Total Solar Irradiance variability on timescales less than a day

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shapiro, Alexander; Krivova, Natalie; Schmutz, Werner; Solanki, Sami K.; Leng Yeo, Kok; Cameron, Robert; Beeck, Benjamin

2016-07-01

Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) varies on timescales from minutes to decades. It is generally accepted that variability on timescales of a day and longer is dominated by solar surface magnetic fields. For shorter time scales, several additional sources of variability have been proposed, including convection and oscillation. However, available simplified and highly parameterised models could not accurately explain the observed variability in high-cadence TSI records. We employed the high-cadence solar imagery from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory and the SATIRE (Spectral And Total Irradiance Reconstruction) model of solar irradiance variability to recreate the magnetic component of TSI variability. The recent 3D simulations of solar near-surface convection with MURAM code have been used to calculate the TSI variability caused by convection. This allowed us to determine the threshold timescale between TSI variability caused by the magnetic field and convection. Our model successfully replicates the TSI measurements by the PICARD/PREMOS radiometer which span the period of July 2010 to February 2014 at 2-minute cadence. Hence, we demonstrate that solar magnetism and convection can account for TSI variability at all timescale it has ever been measured (sans the 5-minute component from p-modes).

Are secular correlations between sunspots, geomagnetic activity, and global temperature significant?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Love, J.J.; Mursula, K.; Tsai, V.C.; Perkins, D.M.

2011-01-01

Recent studies have led to speculation that solar-terrestrial interaction, measured by sunspot number and geomagnetic activity, has played an important role in global temperature change over the past century or so. We treat this possibility as an hypothesis for testing. We examine the statistical significance of cross-correlations between sunspot number, geomagnetic activity, and global surface temperature for the years 1868-2008, solar cycles 11-23. The data contain substantial autocorrelation and nonstationarity, properties that are incompatible with standard measures of cross-correlational significance, but which can be largely removed by averaging over solar cycles and first-difference detrending. Treated data show an expected statistically- significant correlation between sunspot number and geomagnetic activity, Pearson p < 10-4, but correlations between global temperature and sunspot number (geomagnetic activity) are not significant, p = 0.9954, (p = 0.8171). In other words, straightforward analysis does not support widely-cited suggestions that these data record a prominent role for solar-terrestrial interaction in global climate change. With respect to the sunspot-number, geomagnetic-activity, and global-temperature data, three alternative hypotheses remain difficult to reject: (1) the role of solar-terrestrial interaction in recent climate change is contained wholly in long-term trends and not in any shorter-term secular variation, or, (2) an anthropogenic signal is hiding correlation between solar-terrestrial variables and global temperature, or, (3) the null hypothesis, recent climate change has not been influenced by solar-terrestrial interaction. ?? 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

Are secular correlations between sunspots, geomagnetic activity, and global temperature significant?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Love, Jeffrey J.; Mursula, Kalevi; Tsai, Victor C.; Perkins, David M.

2011-11-01

Recent studies have led to speculation that solar-terrestrial interaction, measured by sunspot number and geomagnetic activity, has played an important role in global temperature change over the past century or so. We treat this possibility as an hypothesis for testing. We examine the statistical significance of cross-correlations between sunspot number, geomagnetic activity, and global surface temperature for the years 1868-2008, solar cycles 11-23. The data contain substantial autocorrelation and nonstationarity, properties that are incompatible with standard measures of cross-correlational significance, but which can be largely removed by averaging over solar cycles and first-difference detrending. Treated data show an expected statistically-significant correlation between sunspot number and geomagnetic activity, Pearson p < 10-4, but correlations between global temperature and sunspot number (geomagnetic activity) are not significant, p = 0.9954, (p = 0.8171). In other words, straightforward analysis does not support widely-cited suggestions that these data record a prominent role for solar-terrestrial interaction in global climate change. With respect to the sunspot-number, geomagnetic-activity, and global-temperature data, three alternative hypotheses remain difficult to reject: (1) the role of solar-terrestrial interaction in recent climate change is contained wholly in long-term trends and not in any shorter-term secular variation, or, (2) an anthropogenic signal is hiding correlation between solar-terrestrial variables and global temperature, or, (3) the null hypothesis, recent climate change has not been influenced by solar-terrestrial interaction.

Statistical properties of solar flares and coronal mass ejections through the solar cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Telloni, Daniele; Carbone, Vincenzo; Lepreti, Fabio; Antonucci, Ester

2016-03-01

Waiting Time Distributions (WTDs) of solar flares are investigated all through the solar cycle. The same approach applied to Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) in a previous work is considered here for flare occurrence. Our analysis reveals that flares and CMEs share some common statistical properties, which result dependent on the level of solar activity. Both flares and CMEs seem to independently occur during minimum solar activity phases, whilst their WTDs significantly deviate from a Poisson function at solar maximum, thus suggesting that these events are correlated. The characteristics of WTDs are constrained by the physical processes generating those eruptions associated with flares and CMEs. A scenario may be drawn in which different mechanisms are actively at work during different phases of the solar cycle. Stochastic processes, most likely related to random magnetic reconnections of the field lines, seem to play a key role during solar minimum periods. On the other hand, persistent processes, like sympathetic eruptions associated to the variability of the photospheric magnetism, are suggested to dominate during periods of high solar activity. Moreover, despite the similar statistical properties shown by flares and CMEs, as it was mentioned above, their WTDs appear different in some aspects. During solar minimum periods, the flare occurrence randomness seems to be more evident than for CMEs. Those persistent mechanisms generating interdependent events during maximum periods of solar activity can be suggested to play a more important role for CMEs than for flares, thus mitigating the competitive action of the random processes, which seem instead strong enough to weaken the correlations among flare event occurrence during solar minimum periods. However, it cannot be excluded that the physical processes at the basis of the origin of the temporal correlation between solar events are different for flares and CMEs, or that, more likely, more sophisticated effects are at work at the same time leading to an even more complex picture. This work represents a first step for further investigations.

Can solar cycle modulate the ENSO effect on the Pacific/North American pattern?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Delin; Xiao, Ziniu

2018-01-01

The ENSO effect on the Pacific/North American pattern (PNA) is well-known robust. Recent studies from observations and model simulations have reported that some important atmospheric circulation systems of extratropics are markedly modulated by the 11-year solar cycle. But less effort has been devoted to revealing the solar influence on the PNA. We thus hypothesize that the instability and uncertainty in the relationship between solar activity and PNA could be due to the ENSO impacts. In this study, solar cycle modulation of the ENSO effect on the PNA has been statistically examined by the observations from NOAA and NCEP/NCAR for the period of 1950-2014. Results indicate that during the high solar activity (HS) years, the PNA has stronger relevance to the ENSO, and the response of tropospheric geopotential height to ENSO variability is broadly similar to the typical positive PNA pattern. However, in the case of low solar activity (LS) years, the correlation between ENSO and PNA decreases relatively and the response has some resemblance to the negative phase of Arctic Oscillation (AO). Also, we find the impacts of solar activity on the middle troposphere are asymmetric during the different solar cycle phases, and the weak PNA-like response to solar activity only presents in the HS years. Closer inspection suggests that the higher solar activity has a much more remarkable modulation on the PNA-like response to the warm ENSO (WE) than that to the cold ENSO (CE), particularly over the Northeast Pacific region. The possible cause of the different responses might be the solar influence on the subtropical westerlies of upper troposphere. When the sea surface temperature (SST) of east-central tropical Pacific is anomalously warm, the upper tropospheric westerlies are significantly modulated by the higher solar activity, resulting in the acceleration and eastward shift of the North Pacific subtropical jet, which favors the propagation of WE signal from the tropical Pacific to the North Pacific, and consequently leading to the development of positive PNA-like pattern during the WE phase. Thus, it seems that the solar cycle can significantly modulate the WE effect on the PNA under the HS background.

A New SATIRE-S Spectral Solar Irradiance Reconstruction for Solar Cycles 21-23 and Its Implications for Stratospheric Ozone*

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ball, William T.; Krivova, Natalie A.; Unruh, Yvonne C.; Haigh, Joanna D.; Solanki, Sami K.

2014-11-01

We present a revised and extended total and spectral solar irradiance (SSI) reconstruction, which includes a wavelength-dependent uncertainty estimate, spanning the last three solar cycles using the SATIRE-S model. The SSI reconstruction covers wavelengths between 115 and 160,000 nm and all dates between August 1974 and October 2009. This represents the first full-wavelength SATIRE-S reconstruction to cover the last three solar cycles without data gaps and with an uncertainty estimate. SATIRE-S is compared with the NRLSSI model and SORCE/SOLSTICE ultraviolet (UV) observations. SATIRE-S displays similar cycle behaviour to NRLSSI for wavelengths below 242 nm and almost twice the variability between 242 and 310 nm. During the decline of last solar cycle, between 2003 and 2008, SSI from SORCE/SOLSTICE version 12 and 10 typically displays more than three times the variability of SATIRE-S between 200 and 300 nm. All three datasets are used to model changes in stratospheric ozone within a 2D atmospheric model for a decline from high solar activity to solar minimum. The different flux changes result in different modelled ozone trends. Using NRLSSI leads to a decline in mesospheric ozone, while SATIRE-S and SORCE/SOLSTICE result in an increase. Recent publications have highlighted increases in mesospheric ozone when considering version 10 SORCE/SOLSTICE irradiances. The recalibrated SORCE/SOLSTICE version 12 irradiances result in a much smaller mesospheric ozone response than when using version 10 and now similar in magnitude to SATIRE-S. This shows that current knowledge of variations in spectral irradiance is not sufficient to warrant robust conclusions concerning the impact of solar variability on the atmosphere and climate.

Chronomics of tree rings for chronoastrobiology and beyond.

PubMed

Nintcheu-Fata, Sylvain; Katinas, George; Halberg, Franz; Cornélissen, Germaine; Tolstykh, Victor; Michael, Henry N; Otsuka, Kuniaki; Schwartzkopff, Othild; Bakken, Earl

2003-10-01

Gliding spectral windows illustrate the changes as a function of time in the relative prominence of signals in a given frequency range, viewed in 3D or as surface charts. As an example, the method is applied to a 2,189-year series of averages of ring measurements on 11 sequoia trees published by Douglass. Analyses of the original data and after filtering reveal, among others, components with periods of about 10.5 and 21 years similar to the Schwabe and Hale solar activity cycles. An alignment of gliding spectra with a global spectrum serves to define, by minima, the ranges of variability around the anticipated Schwabe and Hale cycles. This procedure may have more general applicability when dealing with ranges of only transiently synchronized, wobbly, and perhaps sometimes free-running periodicities. Solar activity is known to affect climate and changes in climate are reflected to some extent in tree growth. The spectral structure in tree rings could serve not only to check any relations of climate with sunspots, auroras and more modern measures of solar activity, but also to check any purely mathematical extrapolations from the much shorter available actual data on solar activity. With such extrapolated series and the data analyzed herein, the task remains to align physical and physiological variables to further study the influence of natural environmental factors near and far on biota, including international battles, which cover an even longer span of 2,556 years.

Does solar activity affect human happiness?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kristoufek, Ladislav

2018-03-01

We investigate the direct influence of solar activity (represented by sunspot numbers) on human happiness (represented by the Twitter-based Happiness Index). We construct four models controlling for various statistical and dynamic effects of the analyzed series. The final model gives promising results. First, there is a statistically significant negative influence of solar activity on happiness which holds even after controlling for the other factors. Second, the final model, which is still rather simple, explains around 75% of variance of the Happiness Index. Third, our control variables contribute significantly as well: happiness is higher in no sunspots days, happiness is strongly persistent, there are strong intra-week cycles and happiness peaks during holidays. Our results strongly contribute to the topical literature and they provide evidence of unique utility of the online data.

The ancient Egyptian civilization: maximum and minimum in coincidence with solar activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shaltout, M.

It is proved from the last 22 years observations of the total solar irradiance (TSI) from space by artificial satellites, that TSI shows negative correlation with the solar activity (sunspots, flares, and 10.7cm Radio emissions) from day to day, but shows positive correlations with the same activity from year to year (on the base of the annual average for each of them). Also, the solar constant, which estimated fromth ground stations for beam solar radiations observations during the 20 century indicate coincidence with the phases of the 11- year cycles. It is known from sunspot observations (250 years) , and from C14 analysis, that there are another long-term cycles for the solar activity larger than 11-year cycle. The variability of the total solar irradiance affecting on the climate, and the Nile flooding, where there is a periodicities in the Nile flooding similar to that of solar activity, from the analysis of about 1300 years of the Nile level observations atth Cairo. The secular variations of the Nile levels, regularly measured from the 7 toth 15 century A.D., clearly correlate with the solar variations, which suggests evidence for solar influence on the climatic changes in the East African tropics The civilization of the ancient Egyptian was highly correlated with the Nile flooding , where the river Nile was and still yet, the source of the life in the Valley and Delta inside high dry desert area. The study depends on long -time historical data for Carbon 14 (more than five thousands years), and chronical scanning for all the elements of the ancient Egyptian civilization starting from the firs t dynasty to the twenty six dynasty. The result shows coincidence between the ancient Egyptian civilization and solar activity. For example, the period of pyramids building, which is one of the Brilliant periods, is corresponding to maximum solar activity, where the periods of occupation of Egypt by Foreign Peoples corresponding to minimum solar activity. The decline of the Kingdoms in ancient Egypt and occurrence of the intermediate periods are generally explained by very low Nile floods and prolonged droughts followed by severe famines and the destruction of the political structure. The study declear the role of solar activity on the climatic change, and the humankind history.

Relative Contributions of Coronal Mass Ejections and High-speed Streams to the Long-term Variation of Annual Geomagnetic Activity: Solar Cycle Variation and Latitudinal Differences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holappa, L.; Mursula, K.

2017-12-01

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and high-speed solar wind streams (HSSs) are the most important large-scale solar wind structures driving geomagnetic activity. It is well known that CMEs cause the strongest geomagnetic storms, while HSSs drive mainly moderate or small storms. Here we study the spatial-temporal distribution of geomagnetic activity at annual resolution using local geomagnetic indices from a wide range of latitudes in 1966-2014. We show that the overall contribution of HSSs to geomagnetic activity exceeds that of CMEs at all latitudes. Only in a few sunspot maximum years CMEs have a comparable contribution to HSSs. While the relative contribution of HSSs maximizes at high latitudes, the relative contribution of CMEs maximizes at subauroral and low latitudes. We show that this is related to different latitudinal distribution of CME and HSS-driven substorms. We also show that the contributions of CMEs and HSSs to annual geomagnetic activity are highly correlated with the intensity of the interplanetary magnetic field and the solar wind speed, respectively. Thus, a very large fraction of the long-term variability in annual geomagnetic activity is described only by the variation of IMF strength and solar wind speed.

Oscar: a portable prototype system for the study of climate variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madonna, Fabio; Rosoldi, Marco; Amato, Francesco

2015-04-01

The study of the techniques for the exploitation of solar energy implies the knowledge of nature, ecosystem, biological factors and local climate. Clouds, fog, water vapor, and the presence of large concentrations of dust can significantly affect the way to exploit the solar energy. Therefore, a quantitative characterization of the impact of climate variability at the regional scale is needed to increase the efficiency and sustainability of the energy system. OSCAR (Observation System for Climate Application at Regional scale) project, funded in the frame of the PO FESR 2007-2013, aims at the design of a portable prototype system for the study of correlations among the trends of several Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) and the change in the amount of solar irradiance at the ground level. The final goal of this project is to provide a user-friendly low cost solution for the quantification of the impact of regional climate variability on the efficiency of solar cell and concentrators to improve the exploitation of natural sources. The prototype has been designed on the basis of historical measurements performed at CNR-IMAA Atmospheric Observatory (CIAO). Measurements from satellite and data from models have been also considered as ancillary to the study, above all, to fill in the gaps of existing datasets. In this work, the results outcome from the project activities will be presented. The results include: the design and implementation of the prototype system; the development of a methodology for the estimation of the impact of climate variability, mainly due to aerosol, cloud and water vapor, on the solar irradiance using the integration of the observations potentially provided by prototype; the study of correlation between the surface radiation, precipitation and aerosols transport. In particular, a statistical study will be presented to assess the impact of the atmosphere on the solar irradiance at the ground, quantifying the contribution due to aerosol and clouds and separating their effect on the direct and the diffuse components of the solar radiation. This also aims to provide recommendations to the manufacturer of the devices used to exploit solar radiation.

Midlatitude atmospheric OH response to the most recent 11-y solar cycle.

PubMed

Wang, Shuhui; Li, King-Fai; Pongetti, Thomas J; Sander, Stanley P; Yung, Yuk L; Liang, Mao-Chang; Livesey, Nathaniel J; Santee, Michelle L; Harder, Jerald W; Snow, Martin; Mills, Franklin P

2013-02-05

The hydroxyl radical (OH) plays an important role in middle atmospheric photochemistry, particularly in ozone (O(3)) chemistry. Because it is mainly produced through photolysis and has a short chemical lifetime, OH is expected to show rapid responses to solar forcing [e.g., the 11-y solar cycle (SC)], resulting in variabilities in related middle atmospheric O(3) chemistry. Here, we present an effort to investigate such OH variability using long-term observations (from space and the surface) and model simulations. Ground-based measurements and data from the Microwave Limb Sounder on the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Aura satellite suggest an ∼7-10% decrease in OH column abundance from solar maximum to solar minimum that is highly correlated with changes in total solar irradiance, solar Mg-II index, and Lyman-α index during SC 23. However, model simulations using a commonly accepted solar UV variability parameterization give much smaller OH variability (∼3%). Although this discrepancy could result partially from the limitations in our current understanding of middle atmospheric chemistry, recently published solar spectral irradiance data from the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment suggest a solar UV variability that is much larger than previously believed. With a solar forcing derived from the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment data, modeled OH variability (∼6-7%) agrees much better with observations. Model simulations reveal the detailed chemical mechanisms, suggesting that such OH variability and the corresponding catalytic chemistry may dominate the O(3) SC signal in the upper stratosphere. Continuing measurements through SC 24 are required to understand this OH variability and its impacts on O(3) further.

Midlatitude atmospheric OH response to the most recent 11-y solar cycle

PubMed Central

Wang, Shuhui; Li, King-Fai; Pongetti, Thomas J.; Sander, Stanley P.; Yung, Yuk L.; Liang, Mao-Chang; Livesey, Nathaniel J.; Santee, Michelle L.; Harder, Jerald W.; Snow, Martin; Mills, Franklin P.

2013-01-01

The hydroxyl radical (OH) plays an important role in middle atmospheric photochemistry, particularly in ozone (O3) chemistry. Because it is mainly produced through photolysis and has a short chemical lifetime, OH is expected to show rapid responses to solar forcing [e.g., the 11-y solar cycle (SC)], resulting in variabilities in related middle atmospheric O3 chemistry. Here, we present an effort to investigate such OH variability using long-term observations (from space and the surface) and model simulations. Ground-based measurements and data from the Microwave Limb Sounder on the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s Aura satellite suggest an ∼7–10% decrease in OH column abundance from solar maximum to solar minimum that is highly correlated with changes in total solar irradiance, solar Mg-II index, and Lyman-α index during SC 23. However, model simulations using a commonly accepted solar UV variability parameterization give much smaller OH variability (∼3%). Although this discrepancy could result partially from the limitations in our current understanding of middle atmospheric chemistry, recently published solar spectral irradiance data from the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment suggest a solar UV variability that is much larger than previously believed. With a solar forcing derived from the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment data, modeled OH variability (∼6–7%) agrees much better with observations. Model simulations reveal the detailed chemical mechanisms, suggesting that such OH variability and the corresponding catalytic chemistry may dominate the O3 SC signal in the upper stratosphere. Continuing measurements through SC 24 are required to understand this OH variability and its impacts on O3 further. PMID:23341617

Nonlinear data assimilation: towards a prediction of the solar cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Svedin, Andreas

The solar cycle is the cyclic variation of solar activity, with a span of 9-14 years. The prediction of the solar cycle is an important and unsolved problem with implications for communications, aviation and other aspects of our high-tech society. Our interest is model-based prediction, and we present a self-consistent procedure for parameter estimation and model state estimation, even when only one of several model variables can be observed. Data assimilation is the art of comparing, combining and transferring observed data into a mathematical model or computer simulation. We use the 3DVAR methodology, based on the notion of least squares, to present an implementation of a traditional data assimilation. Using the Shadowing Filter — a recently developed method for nonlinear data assimilation — we outline a path towards model based prediction of the solar cycle. To achieve this end we solve a number of methodological challenges related to unobserved variables. We also provide a new framework for interpretation that can guide future predictions of the Sun and other astrophysical objects.

Solar forcing synchronizes decadal North Atlantic climate variability.

PubMed

Thiéblemont, Rémi; Matthes, Katja; Omrani, Nour-Eddine; Kodera, Kunihiko; Hansen, Felicitas

2015-09-15

Quasi-decadal variability in solar irradiance has been suggested to exert a substantial effect on Earth's regional climate. In the North Atlantic sector, the 11-year solar signal has been proposed to project onto a pattern resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), with a lag of a few years due to ocean-atmosphere interactions. The solar/NAO relationship is, however, highly misrepresented in climate model simulations with realistic observed forcings. In addition, its detection is particularly complicated since NAO quasi-decadal fluctuations can be intrinsically generated by the coupled ocean-atmosphere system. Here we compare two multi-decadal ocean-atmosphere chemistry-climate simulations with and without solar forcing variability. While the experiment including solar variability simulates a 1-2-year lagged solar/NAO relationship, comparison of both experiments suggests that the 11-year solar cycle synchronizes quasi-decadal NAO variability intrinsic to the model. The synchronization is consistent with the downward propagation of the solar signal from the stratosphere to the surface.

Solar and atmospheric forcing on mountain lakes.

PubMed

Luoto, Tomi P; Nevalainen, Liisa

2016-10-01

We investigated the influence of long-term external forcing on aquatic communities in Alpine lakes. Fossil microcrustacean (Cladocera) and macrobenthos (Chironomidae) community variability in four Austrian high-altitude lakes, determined as ultra-sensitive to climate change, were compared against records of air temperature, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and solar forcing over the past ~400years. Summer temperature variability affected both aquatic invertebrate groups in all study sites. The influence of NAO and solar forcing on aquatic invertebrates was also significant in the lakes except in the less transparent lake known to have remained uniformly cold during the past centuries due to summertime snowmelt input. The results suggest that external forcing plays an important role in these pristine ecosystems through their impacts on limnology of the lakes. Not only does the air temperature variability influence the communities but also larger-scale external factors related to atmospheric circulation patterns and solar activity cause long-term changes in high-altitude aquatic ecosystems, through their connections to hydroclimatic conditions and light environment. These findings are important in the assessment of climate change impacts on aquatic ecosystems and in greater understanding of the consequences of external forcing on lake ontogeny. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Geomagnetic activity during 10 - 11 solar cycles that has been observed by old Russian observatories.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seredyn, Tomasz; Wysokinski, Arkadiusz; Kobylinski, Zbigniew; Bialy, Jerzy

2016-07-01

A good knowledge of solar-terrestrial relations during past solar activity cycles could give the appropriate tools for a correct space weather forecast. The paper focuses on the analysis of the historical collections of the ground based magnetic observations and their operational indices from the period of two sunspot solar cycles 10 - 11, period 1856 - 1878 (Bartels rotations 324 - 635). We use hourly observations of H and D geomagnetic field components registered at Russian stations: St. Petersburg - Pavlovsk, Barnaul, Ekaterinburg, Nertshinsk, Sitka, and compare them to the data obtained from the Helsinki observatory. We compare directly these records and also calculated from the data of the every above mentioned station IHV indices introduced by Svalgaard (2003), which have been used for further comparisons in epochs of assumed different polarity of the heliospheric magnetic field. We used also local index C9 derived by Zosimovich (1981) from St. Petersburg - Pavlovsk data. Solar activity is represented by sunspot numbers. The correlative and continuous wavelet analyses are applied for estimation of the correctness of records from different magnetic stations. We have specially regard to magnetic storms in the investigated period and the special Carrington event of 1-2 Sep 1859. Generally studied magnetic time series correctly show variability of the geomagnetic activity. Geomagnetic activity presents some delay in relation to solar one as it is seen especially during descending and minimum phase of the even 11-year cycle. This pattern looks similarly in the case of 16 - 17 solar cycles.

Quantifying variability in fast and slow solar wind: From turbulence to extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tindale, E.; Chapman, S. C.; Moloney, N.; Watkins, N. W.

2017-12-01

Fast and slow solar wind exhibit variability across a wide range of spatiotemporal scales, with evolving turbulence producing fluctuations on sub-hour timescales and the irregular solar cycle modulating the system over many years. Here, we apply the data quantile-quantile (DQQ) method [Tindale and Chapman 2016, 2017] to over 20 years of Wind data, to study the time evolution of the statistical distribution of plasma parameters in fast and slow solar wind. This model-independent method allows us to simultaneously explore the evolution of fluctuations across all scales. We find a two-part functional form for the statistical distributions of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) magnitude and its components, with each region of the distribution evolving separately over the solar cycle. Up to a value of 8nT, turbulent fluctuations dominate the distribution of the IMF, generating the approximately lognormal shape found by Burlaga [2001]. The mean of this core-turbulence region tracks solar cycle activity, while its variance remains constant, independent of the fast or slow state of the solar wind. However, when we test the lognormality of this core-turbulence component over time, we find the model provides a poor description of the data at solar maximum, where sharp peaks in the distribution dominate over the lognormal shape. At IMF values higher than 8nT, we find a separate, extremal distribution component, whose moments are sensitive to solar cycle phase, the peak activity of the cycle and the solar wind state. We further investigate these `extremal' values using burst analysis, where a burst is defined as a continuous period of exceedance over a predefined threshold. This form of extreme value statistics allows us to study the stochastic process underlying the time series, potentially supporting a probabilistic forecast of high-energy events. Tindale, E., and S.C. Chapman (2016), Geophys. Res. Lett., 43(11) Tindale, E., and S.C. Chapman (2017), submitted Burlaga, L.F. (2001), J. Geophys. Res., 106(A8)

Evidence of solar activity and El Niño signals in tree rings of Araucaria araucana and A. angustifolia in South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perone, A.; Lombardi, F.; Marchetti, M.; Tognetti, R.; Lasserre, B.

2016-10-01

Tree rings reveal climatic variations through years, but also the effect of solar activity in influencing the climate on a large scale. In order to investigate the role of solar cycles on climatic variability and to analyse their influences on tree growth, we focused on tree-ring chronologies of Araucaria angustifolia and Araucaria araucana in four study areas: Irati and Curitiba in Brazil, Caviahue in Chile, and Tolhuaca in Argentina. We obtained an average tree-ring chronology of 218, 117, 439, and 849 years for these areas, respectively. Particularly, the older chronologies also included the period of the Maunder and Dalton minima. To identify periodicities and trends observable in tree growth, the time series were analysed using spectral, wavelet and cross-wavelet techniques. Analysis based on the Multitaper method of annual growth rates identified 2 cycles with periodicities of 11 (Schwebe cycle) and 5.5 years (second harmonic of Schwebe cycle). In the Chilean and Argentinian sites, significant agreement between the time series of tree rings and the 11-year solar cycle was found during the periods of maximum solar activity. Results also showed oscillation with periods of 2-7 years, probably induced by local environmental variations, and possibly also related to the El-Niño events. Moreover, the Morlet complex wavelet analysis was applied to study the most relevant variability factors affecting tree-ring time series. Finally, we applied the cross-wavelet spectral analysis to evaluate the time lags between tree-ring and sunspot-number time series, as well as for the interaction between tree rings, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and temperature and precipitation. Trees sampled in Chile and Argentina showed more evident responses of fluctuations in tree-ring time series to the variations of short and long periodicities in comparison with the Brazilian ones. These results provided new evidence on the solar activity-climate pattern-tree ring connections over centuries.

The effect of solar-geomagnetic activity during and after admission on survival in patients with acute coronary syndromes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vencloviene, Jone; Babarskiene, Ruta; Milvidaite, Irena; Kubilius, Raimondas; Stasionyte, Jolanta

2014-08-01

A number of studies have established the effects of solar-geomagnetic activity on the human cardio-vascular system. It is plausible that the heliophysical conditions existing during and after hospital admission may affect survival in patients with acute coronary syndromes (ACS). We analyzed data from 1,413 ACS patients who were admitted to the Hospital of Kaunas University of Medicine, Lithuania, and who survived for more than 4 days. We evaluated the associations between active-stormy geomagnetic activity (GMA), solar proton events (SPE), and solar flares (SF) that occurred 0-3 days before and after admission, and 2-year survival, based on Cox's proportional-hazards model, controlling for clinical data. After adjustment for clinical variables, active-stormy GMA on the 2nd day after admission was associated with an increased (by 1.58 times) hazard ratio (HR) of cardiovascular death (HR = 1.58, 95 % CI 1.07-2.32). For women, geomagnetic storm (GS) 2 days after SPE occurred 1 day after admission increased the HR by 3.91 times (HR = 3.91, 95 % CI 1.31-11.7); active-stormy GMA during the 2nd-3rd day after admission increased the HR by over 2.5 times (HR = 2.66, 95 % CI 1.40-5.03). In patients aged over 70 years, GS occurring 1 day before or 2 days after admission, increased the HR by 2.5 times, compared to quiet days; GS in conjunction with SF on the previous day, nearly tripled the HR (HR = 3.08, 95 % CI 1.32-7.20). These findings suggest that the heliophysical conditions before or after the admission affect the hazard ratio of lethal outcome; adjusting for clinical variables, these effects were stronger for women and older patients.

Understanding the Global Variability in Thermospheric Nitric Oxide Flux Using Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flynn, Sierra; Knipp, Delores J.; Matsuo, Tomoko; Mlynczak, Martin; Hunt, Linda

2018-05-01

We present the first-ever global assessment of thermospheric nitric oxide infrared radiative flux (NOF) variability. NOF (W/m2) from 100- to 250-km altitude is extracted from 13.7 years of data from the TIMED satellite, Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument, and decomposed into four empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) and their amplitudes. We determine the strongest modes of NOF variability in the data set and develop a compact model of NOF. The first four EOFs account for 83% of the variability in the data. We illustrate the NOF model and discuss the geophysical associations of the EOFs. The first EOF represents 69% of the total variance and correlates strongly with Kp and solar shortwave flux, suggesting that geomagnetic activity and solar weather account for a large portion of NOF variability. EOF 2 shows annual and seasonal variations, possibly due to annual and seasonal thermospheric composition and temperature changes and may represent the chemical breathing mode of NOF. EOF 3 shows annual variations and correlates with solar energetic particle events and X-flares. EOF 3 may represent winter time solar energetic particle event-enhanced diurnal tide effects. EOF 4 suggests a meridional transport mechanism at the predawn and postdusk equator after strong storms. The EOF uncertainty is verified using cross-validation analysis. Quantifying the spatial and temporal variabilities of NOF using eigenmodes will increase the understanding of how upper atmospheric nitric oxide cooling behaves and could increase the accuracy of future space weather and climate models.

Center-to-Limb Variability of Hot Coronal EUV Emissions During Solar Flares

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiemann, E. M. B.; Chamberlin, P. C.; Eparvier, F. G.; Epp, L.

2018-02-01

It is generally accepted that densities of quiet-Sun and active region plasma are sufficiently low to justify the optically thin approximation, and this is commonly used in the analysis of line emissions from plasma in the solar corona. However, the densities of solar flare loops are substantially higher, compromising the optically thin approximation. This study begins with a radiative transfer model that uses typical solar flare densities and geometries to show that hot coronal emission lines are not generally optically thin. Furthermore, the model demonstrates that the observed line intensity should exhibit center-to-limb variability (CTLV), with flares observed near the limb being dimmer than those occurring near disk center. The model predictions are validated with an analysis of over 200 flares observed by the EUV Variability Experiment (EVE) on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), which uses six lines, with peak formation temperatures between 8.9 and 15.8 MK, to show that limb flares are systematically dimmer than disk-center flares. The data are then used to show that the electron column density along the line of sight typically increases by 1.76 × 10^{19} cm^{-2} for limb flares over the disk-center flare value. It is shown that the CTLV of hot coronal emissions reduces the amount of ionizing radiation propagating into the solar system, and it changes the relative intensities of lines and bands commonly used for spectral analysis.

Analysis and interpretation of variabilities in ozone and temperature fields

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chandra, S.

1990-01-01

The temporal and spatial variabilities were studied of short and long term fluctuations in stratospheric ozone and temperature at various pressure levels using several years of ozone, temperature, and solar flux data from Nimbus 4, Nimbus 7, and SME satellites. Some results are as follows: (1) the solar UV flux and various indices of solar activity indicate a strong period at about 5 months; (2) satellite total ozone observations were analyzed using 17 years of data from the Nimbus 4 BUV and the Nimbus 7 SBUV experiments, which show very similar seasonal variations and quasibiennial oscillation (QBO) with some indication of a 4 year component; and (3) the zonal characteristics of both the ozone and temperature trends were derived from ten years of total ozone and 50 mb temperature based on the Nimbus 7 TOMS measurements and the NMC analyses respectively.

Short time variability of solar corona during recent solar cycle minimum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siarkowski, Marek; Gryciuk, Magdalena; Gburek, Szymon; Sylwester, Janusz; Sylwester, Barbara; Kepa, Anna; Buczkowska, Agnieszka; Kowalinski, Miroslaw

Sphinx is the X-ray spectrophotometer designed to measure X-ray emission from the Sun in the energy range between 0.8 keV and 15 keV. The instrument is placed onboard Russian KORONAS-PHOTON satellite launched on January 30, 2009. In this paper we present the observations of coronal emission obtained between March-April and August-September 2009, i.e. the times towards the end of the last, very prolonged and deep minimum of solar activity. Prompt analysis of SphinX spectra reveal the variability of the average coronal plasma charac-teristics like the temperature and emission measure. These data are used to compare SphinX and GOES measurements, for selected times. Examples of many sub/microflare events with maxima of the X-ray flux, observed much below the GOES sensitivity threshold level will be presented.

Spectroscopic Exploration of Solar Flares

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sibeck, D. G.; Paxton, L. J.; Woods, T. N.

2016-12-01

Professor Eugene Parker has educated and inspired the heliophysics community since the 1950s about the Parker spiral path for the solar wind, magnetic reconnection throughout the heliosphere, and coronal heating by nano-flares. Solar flares, as well as their often eruptive companions called coronal mass ejections (CMEs), have been studied for decades. While most of these studies involve imaging the Sun, observations of the Sun as a star (full-disk irradiance) have also revealed interesting results through exploring the spectral variability during flare events. Some of the new results from such studies include understanding the flare variability over all wavelengths from the energetic X-rays to the visible, discovering and classifying different flare phases, using coronal dimming measurements to predict CME properties of mass and velocity, and exploring the role of Parker's nano-flares in continual heating of active regions.

Monitoring solar-type stars for luminosity variations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lockwood, G. W.; Skiff, B. A.

1988-01-01

Since 1984, researchers have made more than 1500 differential photometric b (471 nm) and y (551 nm) measurements of three dozen solar-like lower main sequence stars whose chromospheric activity was previosly studied by O. C. Wilson. Here, researchers describe their methodology and the statistical tests used to distinguish intrinsic stellar variability from observational and instrument errors. The incidence of detected variability among the program and comparison stars is summarized. Among the 100 plus pairs of stars measured differentially, only a dozen were found that were unusually constant, with peak-to-peak amplitudes of seasonal mean brightness smaller than 0.3 percent (0.003 mag) over a two-to-three-year interval.

The complex planetary synchronization structure of the solar system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scafetta, N.

2014-01-01

The complex planetary synchronization structure of the solar system, which since Pythagoras of Samos (ca. 570-495 BC) is known as the music of the spheres, is briefly reviewed from the Renaissance up to contemporary research. Copernicus' heliocentric model from 1543 suggested that the planets of our solar system form a kind of mutually ordered and quasi-synchronized system. From 1596 to 1619 Kepler formulated preliminary mathematical relations of approximate commensurabilities among the planets, which were later reformulated in the Titius-Bode rule (1766-1772), which successfully predicted the orbital position of Ceres and Uranus. Following the discovery of the ~ 11 yr sunspot cycle, in 1859 Wolf suggested that the observed solar variability could be approximately synchronized with the orbital movements of Venus, Earth, Jupiter and Saturn. Modern research has further confirmed that (1) the planetary orbital periods can be approximately deduced from a simple system of resonant frequencies; (2) the solar system oscillates with a specific set of gravitational frequencies, and many of them (e.g., within the range between 3 yr and 100 yr) can be approximately constructed as harmonics of a base period of ~ 178.38 yr; and (3) solar and climate records are also characterized by planetary harmonics from the monthly to the millennial timescales. This short review concludes with an emphasis on the contribution of the author's research on the empirical evidences and physical modeling of both solar and climate variability based on astronomical harmonics. The general conclusion is that the solar system works as a resonator characterized by a specific harmonic planetary structure that also synchronizes the Sun's activity and the Earth's climate. The special issue Pattern in solar variability, their planetary origin and terrestrial impacts (Mörner et al., 2013) further develops the ideas about the planetary-solar-terrestrial interaction with the personal contribution of 10 authors.

Solar Forced Dansgaard/Oeschger Events?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Muscheler, R.; Beer, J.

2006-01-01

Climate records for the last ice age (which ended 11,500 years ago) show enormous climate fluctuations in the North Atlantic region - the so-called Dansgaard/Oeschger events. During these events air temperatures in Greenland changed on the order of 10 degrees Celsius within a few decades. These changes were attributed to shifts in ocean circulation which influences the warm water supply from lower latitudes to the North Atlantic region. Interestingly, the rapid warmings tend to recur approximately every 1500 years or multiples thereof. This has led researchers to speculate about an external cause for these changes with the variable Sun being one possible candidate. Support for this hypothesis came from climate reconstructions, which suggested that the Sun influenced the climate in the North Atlantic region on these time scales during the last approximately 12,000 years of relatively stable Holocene climate. However, Be-10 measurements in ice cores do not indicate that the Sun caused or triggered the Dansgaard/Oeschger events. Depending on the solar magnetic shielding more or less Be-10 is produced in the Earth's atmosphere. Therefore, 10Be can be used as a proxy for solar activity changes. Since Be-10 can be measured in ice cores, it is possible to compare the variable solar forcing directly with the climate record from the same ice core. This removes any uncertainties in the relative dating, and the solar-climate link can be reliably studied. Notwithstanding that some Dansgaard/Oeschger warmings could be related to increased solar activity, there is no indication that this is the case for all of the Dansgaard/Oeschger events. Therefore, during the last ice age the Be-10 and ice core climate data do not indicate a persistent solar influence on North Atlantic climate.

The Response of High Energy Photoelectrons in The Mars Atmosphere to Variable Solar Input

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mills, I. F.; Eparvier, F. G.; Thiemann, E.; Mitchell, D. L.

2016-12-01

The Mars Atmosphere and Volatile Evolution (MAVEN) mission aims to understand the processes by which Mars has been losing atmosphere over time by analyzing data taken from different levels of the Martian atmosphere as well as solar drivers. In this project, we isolate data taken from the ionosphere to study high-energy electrons created by a particular ionization process called the Auger effect. This process occurs when soft x-rays ionize atmospheric gases. In particular, we focus on Auger electrons that are ionized from CO2 molecules and atomic O via solar irradiance in the 0.1-6 nm wavelength range. Thus far, the portion of the solar spectrum that produces Auger electrons has been sparsely measured and its spectral distribution is poorly understood, especially as a function of solar activity. To make up for this, models of spectral irradiance are used in studies of atmospheric effects. In an effort to validate solar irradiance models from 0.1- 6 nm, we utilize data from two instruments on board the MAVEN spacecraft, EUVM (the Extreme Ultraviolet Monitor), which measures the broadband solar irradiance from 0.1-6 nm and SWEA (the Solar Wind Electron Analyzer), which measures the photoelectron energy spectrum in the Mars atmosphere. We then compare these observed data sets to two different spectral irradiance models: MAVEN SynRef, and FISM-M (the Flare Irradiance Spectral Model for Mars). SynRef is a version of the SORCE XPS model modified to be used by MAVEN/EUVM, and FISM-M is a version of the FISM proxy model previously developed for Earth irradiance and modified to be used by MAVEN/EUVM. Our method of comparison is to find the Pearson correlation between the data and the models over October 2015, a month that had a strong solar rotational variability in the solar irradiance. By filtering the SWEA data for different altitudes and solar zenith angles, we are able to analyze how Auger electrons react under different solar activity levels. Both irradiance models correlate well with the electron data, specifically when comparing them with electrons in the bin containing the Auger peak, and when integrating over multiple energy bins surrounding this peak.

The Young Solar Analogs Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lambert, Ryan; Gray, Richard, , Dr.

2014-03-01

The ultimate goal of the Young Solar Analogs Project is to give insight into the conditions in the early solar system when life was first forming on the earth and to assess the challenges the young, active sun presented to that early life. To achieve this, we have been monitoring since 2007 the stellar activity of 31 young solar-type stars with ages between 0.3 and 1.5 Gyrs. Many of these stars exhibit star spot cycles like the sun, but in a few cases we are seeing evidence for a previously unknown type of star spot cycle. Some vary chaotically. We have detected the presence of differential rotation in several stars. We have also detected a number of powerful flares both photometrically and spectroscopically. Optical irradiance changes in these stars can be as high as 10% in a single year; such solar variability would have led to catastropic climate change on the early earth. We would like to thank NSF for their generous donations to this project.

Variability of Lyman-alpha emission from Jupiter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1979-01-01

The Jovian Lyman-alpha emission line was again observed in 1978 using the high resolution spectrometer on the Copernicus satellite. In intensity of 8.4+3.0 kilo Rayleighs was measured. This value represents a significant increase in intensity over previous (1976) Copernicus observations, but is lower than the recent (1979) values obtained by Voyager I and IUE. The increase in intensity was accompanied by a significant increase in line width, giving strong support to the theory that the emission results from resonant scattering of the solar Ly-alpha line by H atoms in the upper Jovian atmosphere. The strength of Jovian Ly-alpha emission correlates well with the level of solar activity. The solar extreme ultraviolet radiation varies with the solar cycle. This radiation causes the dissociation of H2 and CH4 into H atoms in the Jovian atmosphere. Therefore, in times of high solar activity, the H column density will increase, causing the observed stronger Jovian Ly-alpha emission.

Variability of Lyman-alpha emission from Jupiter

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cochran, W.D.; Barker, E.S.

1979-12-01

The Jovian L..cap alpha.. emission line was reobserved in 1978 March using the high-resolution spectrometer of the Copernicus satellite. An intensity of 8.3 +- 2.9 kilorayleighs was measured. This value represents a significant increase in intensity over previous (1976) Copernicus observations, but is lower than the recent (1979) values obtained by Voyager 1 and IUE. The increase in intensity has been accompanied by a significant increase in line width givin strong support to the theory that the emission results from resonant scattering of the solar L..cap alpha.. line by H atoms in the upper Jovian atmosphere. The strength of Jovianmore » L..cap alpha.. emission correlates well with the level of solar activity. The solar extreme ultraviolet radiation varies with the solar cycle. This radiation causes the dissociation of H/sub 2/ and CH/sub 4/ into H atoms in the Jovian atmosphere. Therefore, in times of high solar activity, the H column density will increase, causing the observed stronger Jovian L..cap alpha.. emission.« less

Solar Control of Earth's Ionosphere: Observations from Solar Cycle 23

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doe, R. A.; Thayer, J. P.; Solomon, S. C.

2005-05-01

A nine year database of sunlit E-region electron density altitude profiles (Ne(z)) measured by the Sondrestrom ISR has been partitioned over a 30-bin parameter space of averaged 10.7 cm solar radio flux (F10.7) and solar zenith angle (χ) to investigate long-term solar and thermospheric variability, and to validate contemporary EUV photoionization models. A two stage filter, based on rejection of Ne(z) profiles with large Hall to Pedersen ratio, is used to minimize auroral contamination. Resultant filtered mean Ne(z) compares favorably with subauroral Ne measured for the same F10.7 and χ conditions at the Millstone Hill ISR. Mean Ne, as expected, increases with solar activity and decreases with large χ, and the variance around mean Ne is shown to be greatest at low F10.7 (solar minimum). ISR-derived mean Ne is compared with two EUV models: (1) a simple model without photoelectrons and based on the 5 -- 105 nm EUVAC model solar flux [Richards et al., 1994] and (2) the GLOW model [Solomon et al., 1988; Solomon and Abreu, 1989] suitably modified for inclusion of XUV spectral components and photoelectron flux. Across parameter space and for all altitudes, Model 2 provides a closer match to ISR mean Ne and suggests that the photoelectron and XUV enhancements are essential to replicate measured plasma densities below 150 km. Simulated Ne variance envelopes, given by perturbing the Model 2 neutral atmosphere input by the measured extremum in Ap, F10.7, and Te, are much narrower than ISR-derived geophysical variance envelopes. We thus conclude that long-term variability of the EUV spectra dominates over thermospheric variability and that EUV spectral variability is greatest at solar minimum. ISR -- model comparison also provides evidence for the emergence of an H (Lyman β) Ne feature at solar maximum. Richards, P. G., J. A. Fennelly, and D. G. Torr, EUVAC: A solar EUV flux model for aeronomic calculations, J. Geophys. Res., 99, 8981, 1994. Solomon, S. C., P. B. Hays, and V. J. Abreu, The auroral 6300 Å emission: Observations and Modeling, J. Geophys. Res., 93, 9867, 1988. Solomon, S. C. and V. J. Abreu, The 630 nm dayglow, J. Geophys. Res., 94, 6817, 1989.

The Solar Spectral Irradiance as a Function of the Mg II Index for Atmosphere and Climate Modelling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thuillier, Gerard; DeLand, Matthew; Shapiro, Alexander; Schmutz, Werner; Bolsee, David; Melo, Stella

2011-01-01

In this paper we present a new method to reconstruct the solar spectrum irradiance in the Ly alpha-400 nm region, and its variability, based on the Mg II index and neutron monitor. Measurements of the solar spectral irradiance available in the literature have been made with different instruments at different times and different spectral ranges. However, climate studies require harmonized data sets. This new approach has the advantage of being independent of the absolute calibration and aging of the instruments. First, the Mg II index is derived using solar spectra from Ly alpha (121 nm) to 410 nm measured from 1978 to 2010 by several space missions. The variability of the spectra with respect to a chosen reference spectrum as a function of time and wavelength is scaled to the derived Mg II index. The set of coefficients expressing the spectral variability can be applied to the chosen reference spectrum to reconstruct the solar spectra within a given time frame or Mg II index values. The accuracy of this method is estimated using two approaches: by direct comparison with particular cases where solar spectra are available from independent measurements, and by calculating the standard deviation between the measured spectra and their reconstruction. From direct comparisons with measurements we obtain an accuracy of about 1 to 2 %, which degrades towards Ly alpha. In a further step, we extend our solar spectral irradiance reconstruction back to the Maunder Minimum introducing the relationship between the Mg II index and the neutron monitor data. Consistent measurements of the Mg II index are not available prior to 1978. However, we observe that over the last three solar cycles, the Mg II index shows strong correlation with the modulation potential determined from the neutron monitor data. Assuming that this correlation can be applied to the past, we reconstruct the Mg II index from the modulation potential back to the Maunder Minimum, and obtain the corresponding solar spectral irradiance reconstruction back to that period. As there is no direct measurement of the spectral irradiance for this period we discuss this methodology in light of the other proposed approaches available in the literature. The use of the cosmogenic isotope data provides a major advantage: it provides information about the solar activity over several thousands years. Using technology of today we can calibrate the solar irradiance against the activity and thus reconstruct it for the times when cosmogenic isotope data are available. This calibration can be re-accessed at any time, if necessary.

Using Data Assimilation Methods of Prediction of Solar Activity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kitiashvili, Irina N.; Collins, Nancy S.

2017-01-01

The variable solar magnetic activity known as the 11-year solar cycle has the longest history of solar observations. These cycles dramatically affect conditions in the heliosphere and the Earth's space environment. Our current understanding of the physical processes that make up global solar dynamics and the dynamo that generates the magnetic fields is sketchy, resulting in unrealistic descriptions in theoretical and numerical models of the solar cycles. The absence of long-term observations of solar interior dynamics and photospheric magnetic fields hinders development of accurate dynamo models and their calibration. In such situations, mathematical data assimilation methods provide an optimal approach for combining the available observational data and their uncertainties with theoretical models in order to estimate the state of the solar dynamo and predict future cycles. In this presentation, we will discuss the implementation and performance of an Ensemble Kalman Filter data assimilation method based on the Parker migratory dynamo model, complemented by the equation of magnetic helicity conservation and long-term sunspot data series. This approach has allowed us to reproduce the general properties of solar cycles and has already demonstrated a good predictive capability for the current cycle, 24. We will discuss further development of this approach, which includes a more sophisticated dynamo model, synoptic magnetogram data, and employs the DART Data Assimilation Research Testbed.

Early Estimation of Solar Activity Cycle: Potential Capability and Limits

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kitiashvili, Irina N.; Collins, Nancy S.

2017-01-01

The variable solar magnetic activity known as the 11-year solar cycle has the longest history of solar observations. These cycles dramatically affect conditions in the heliosphere and the Earth's space environment. Our current understanding of the physical processes that make up global solar dynamics and the dynamo that generates the magnetic fields is sketchy, resulting in unrealistic descriptions in theoretical and numerical models of the solar cycles. The absence of long-term observations of solar interior dynamics and photospheric magnetic fields hinders development of accurate dynamo models and their calibration. In such situations, mathematical data assimilation methods provide an optimal approach for combining the available observational data and their uncertainties with theoretical models in order to estimate the state of the solar dynamo and predict future cycles. In this presentation, we will discuss the implementation and performance of an Ensemble Kalman Filter data assimilation method based on the Parker migratory dynamo model, complemented by the equation of magnetic helicity conservation and longterm sunspot data series. This approach has allowed us to reproduce the general properties of solar cycles and has already demonstrated a good predictive capability for the current cycle, 24. We will discuss further development of this approach, which includes a more sophisticated dynamo model, synoptic magnetogram data, and employs the DART Data Assimilation Research Testbed.

Chromospherically active stars. VI - HD 136901 = UV CrB: A massive ellipsoidal K giant single-lined spectroscopic binary

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fekel, Francis C.; Kirkpatrick, J. Davy; Yang, Xinxing; Strassmeier, Klaus G.

1989-01-01

The variable star HD 136901 = UV CrB is a chromospherically active K2 III single-lined spectroscopic binary with an orbital period of 18.665 days. It has modest-strength Ca H and K emission and UV features, while H-alpha is a strong absorption feature containing little or no emission. The inclination of the system is 53 + or - 12 deg. The v sin i of the primary is 42 + or - 2 km/s, resulting in a minimum radius of 15.5 + or - 0.8 solar. When compared with the Roche lobe radius, this results in a mass ratio of 2.90 or larger. Additional constraints indicate that the secondary has a mass between 0.85 and 1.25 solar. Thus, the mass of the primary is at least 2.5 solar and probably is in the range 2.5-4 solar.

A solar cycle dependence of nonlinearity in magnetospheric activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, Jay R.; Wing, Simon

2005-04-01

The nonlinear dependencies inherent to the historical Kp data stream (1932-2003) are examined using mutual information and cumulant-based cost as discriminating statistics. The discriminating statistics are compared with surrogate data streams that are constructed using the corrected amplitude adjustment Fourier transform (CAAFT) method and capture the linear properties of the original Kp data. Differences are regularly seen in the discriminating statistics a few years prior to solar minima, while no differences are apparent at the time of solar maxima. These results suggest that the dynamics of the magnetosphere tend to be more linear at solar maximum than at solar minimum. The strong nonlinear dependencies tend to peak on a timescale around 40-50 hours and are statistically significant up to 1 week. Because the solar wind driver variables, VBs, and dynamical pressure exhibit a much shorter decorrelation time for nonlinearities, the results seem to indicate that the nonlinearity is related to internal magnetospheric dynamics. Moreover, the timescales for the nonlinearity seem to be on the same order as that for storm/ring current relaxation. We suggest that the strong solar wind driving that occurs around solar maximum dominates the magnetospheric dynamics, suppressing the internal magnetospheric nonlinearity. On the other hand, in the descending phase of the solar cycle just prior to solar minimum, when magnetospheric activity is weaker, the dynamics exhibit a significant nonlinear internal magnetospheric response that may be related to increased solar wind speed.

QUASI-BIENNIAL MODULATION OF GALACTIC COSMIC RAYS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Laurenza, M.; Storini, M.; Vecchio, A.

2012-04-20

The time variability of the cosmic-ray (CR) intensity at three different rigidities has been analyzed through the empirical mode decomposition technique for the period 1964-2004. Apart from the {approx}11 yr cycle, quasi-biennial oscillations (QBOs) have been detected as a prominent scale of variability in CR data, as well as in the heliomagnetic field magnitude at 1 AU and in the sunspot area. The superposition of the {approx}11 yr and QBO contributions reproduces the general features of the CR modulation, such as most of the step-like decreases and the Gnevyshev Gap phenomenon. A significant correlation has also been found between QBOsmore » of the heliospheric magnetic field and the CR intensity during even solar activity cycles, suggesting that the former are responsible for step-like decreases in CR modulation, probably dominated by the particle diffusion/convection in such periods. In contrast, during odd-numbered cycles, no significant correlation is found. This could be explained with an enhanced drift effect also during the solar maximum or a greater influence of merged interaction regions at great heliocentric distances during odd cycles. Moreover, the QBOs of CR data are delayed with respect to sunspot activity, the lag being shorter for A > 0 periods of even cycles ({approx}1-4 months) than for A < 0 periods of odd cycles ({approx}7-9 months); we suggest that solar QBOs also affect the recovery of the CR intensity after the solar activity maximum.« less

Solar Cycle Effects on Equatorial Electrojet Strength and Low Latitude Ionospheric Variability (P10)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Veenadhari, B.; Alex, S.

2006-11-01

veena_iig@yahoo.co.in The most obvious indicators of the activity of a solar cycle are sunspots, flares, plages, and soon. These are intimately linked to the solar magnetic fields, heliospheric processes which exhibit complex but systematic variations. The changes in geomagnetic activity, as observed in the ground magnetic records follow systematic correspondence with the solar activity conditions. Thus the transient variations in the magnetic field get modified by differing solar conditions. Also the solar cycle influences the Earth causing changes in geomagnetic activity, the magnetosphere and the ionosphere. Daily variations in the ground magnetic field are produced by different current systems in the earth’s space environment flowing in the ionosphere and magnetosphere which has a strong dependence on latitude and longitude of the location. The north-south (Horizontal) configuration of the earth’s magnetic field over the equator is responsible for the narrow band of current system over the equatorial latitudes and is called the Equatorial electrojet (EEJ) and is a primary driver for Equatorial Ionization anomaly (EIA). Equatorial electric fields and plasma drifts play the fundamental roles on the morphology of the low latitude ionosphere and strongly vary during geomagnetically quiet and disturbed periods. Quantitative study is done to illustrate the development process of EEJ and its influence on ionospheric parameters. An attempt is also made to examine and discuss the response of the equatorial electrojet parameters to the fast varying conditions of solar wind and interplanetary parameters.

Solar-induced oscillations in the stratosphere - A myth or reality?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chandra, S.

1985-01-01

Chandra (1984) has provided an assessment of the solar cycle ozone relationship based on seven years of Nimbus 4 BUV (backscattered ultraviolet) data. It was found that the globally averaged ozone in the upper stratosphere, when corrected for the changes in instrument sensitivity, decreased from 1970 to 1976 by 3-4 percent. This decrease is in accordance with the current estimates of solar UV variability over a solar cycle. The present investigation has the objective to determine if measured changes in ozone and temperature in the upper stratosphere on a time scale of a solar rotation are of solar origin, i.e., directly induced by changes in solar irradiance. The conducted study is based on the first two years (1970-1972) of ozone and temperature data obtained from the Nimbus 4 BUV and the Selective Chopper Radiometer (SCR) experiments. Attention is given to the response of the stratosphere to changes in solar activity associated with the 27-day solar rotation.

On quasi-periodic variations of low-energy cosmic rays observed near earth.

PubMed

Kudela, Karel; Langer, Ronald

2015-06-01

Cosmic ray (CR) may partially, especially at high altitudes, contribute to the dosimetric characteristics. Along with irregular CR variations as Forbush decreases and solar particle events are, the quasi-periodic variations may be of some relevance too. A very short review (with references to original papers) of the present knowledge of various types of such variations is presented, namely (i) diurnal wave, (ii) ~27 d variability due to the solar rotation, (iii) Rieger-type periodicity, and (iv) quasi-biennial oscillations as well as waves on longer time scales related to solar activity and to polarity of magnetic field of the Sun. Variability is illustrated in measurements of secondary CR on the ground including the high-altitude observations at Lomnický štít. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Variability of Power from Large-Scale Solar Photovoltaic Scenarios in the State of Gujarat: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Parsons, B.; Hummon, M.; Cochran, J.

2014-04-01

India has ambitious goals for high utilization of variable renewable power from wind and solar, and deployment has been proceeding at a rapid pace. The western state of Gujarat currently has the largest amount of solar generation of any Indian state, with over 855 Megawatts direct current (MWDC). Combined with over 3,240 MW of wind, variable generation renewables comprise nearly 18% of the electric-generating capacity in the state. A new historic 10-kilometer (km) gridded solar radiation data set capturing hourly insolation values for 2002-2011 is available for India. We apply an established method for downscaling hourly irradiance data to one-minutemore » irradiance data at potential PV power production locations for one year, 2006. The objective of this report is to characterize the intra-hour variability of existing and planned photovoltaic solar power generation in the state of Gujarat (a total of 1.9 gigawatts direct current (GWDC)), and of five possible expansion scenarios of solar generation that reflect a range of geographic diversity (each scenario totals 500-1,000 MW of additional solar capacity). The report statistically analyzes one year's worth of power variability data, applied to both the baseline and expansion scenarios, to evaluate diurnal and seasonal power fluctuations, different timescales of variability (e.g., from one to 15 minutes), the magnitude of variability (both total megawatts and relative to installed solar capacity), and the extent to which the variability can be anticipated in advance. The paper also examines how Gujarat Energy Transmission Corporation (GETCO) and the Gujarat State Load Dispatch Centre (SLDC) could make use of the solar variability profiles in grid operations and planning.« less

HEMISPHERIC ASYMMETRIES IN THE POLAR SOLAR WIND OBSERVED BY ULYSSES NEAR THE MINIMA OF SOLAR CYCLES 22 AND 23

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ebert, R. W.; Dayeh, M. A.; Desai, M. I.

2013-05-10

We examined solar wind plasma and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) observations from Ulysses' first and third orbits to study hemispheric differences in the properties of the solar wind and IMF originating from the Sun's large polar coronal holes (PCHs) during the declining and minimum phase of solar cycles 22 and 23. We identified hemispheric asymmetries in several parameters, most notably {approx}15%-30% south-to-north differences in averages for the solar wind density, mass flux, dynamic pressure, and energy flux and the radial and total IMF magnitudes. These differences were driven by relatively larger, more variable solar wind density and radial IMF betweenmore » {approx}36 Degree-Sign S-60 Degree-Sign S during the declining phase of solar cycles 22 and 23. These observations indicate either a hemispheric asymmetry in the PCH output during the declining and minimum phase of solar cycles 22 and 23 with the southern hemisphere being more active than its northern counterpart, or a solar cycle effect where the PCH output in both hemispheres is enhanced during periods of higher solar activity. We also report a strong linear correlation between these solar wind and IMF parameters, including the periods of enhanced PCH output, that highlight the connection between the solar wind mass and energy output and the Sun's magnetic field. That these enhancements were not matched by similar sized variations in solar wind speed points to the mass and energy responsible for these increases being added to the solar wind while its flow was subsonic.« less

Elsaesser variable analysis of fluctuations in the ion foreshock and undisturbed solar wind

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Labelle, James; Treumann, Rudolf A.; Marsch, Eckart

1994-01-01

Magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) fluctuations in the solar wind have been investigated previously by use of Elsaesser variables. In this paper, we present a comparison of the spectra of Elsaesser variables in the undisturbed solar wind at 1 AU and in the ion foreshock in front of the Earth. Both observations take place under relatively strong solar wind flow speed conditions (approximately equal 600 km/s). In the undisturbed solar wind we find that outward propagating Alfven waves dominate, as reported by other observers. In the ion foreshock the situation is more complex, with neither outward nor inward propagation dominating over the entire range investigated (1-10 mHz). Measurements of the Poynting vectors associated with the fluctuations are consistent with the Elsaesser variable analysis. These results generally support interpretations of the Elsaesser variables which have been made based strictly on solar wind data and provide additional insight into the nature of the ion foreshock turbulence.

Scale Height variations with solar cycle in the ionosphere of Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanchez-Cano, Beatriz; Lester, Mark; Witasse, Olivier; Milan, Stephen E.; Hall, Benjamin E. S.; Cartacci, Marco; Radicella, Sandro M.; Blelly, Pierre-Louis

2015-04-01

The Mars Advanced Radar for Subsurface and Ionospheric Sounding (MARSIS) on board the Mars Express spacecraft has been probing the topside of the ionosphere of Mars since June 2005, covering currently almost one solar cycle. A good knowledge of the behaviour of the ionospheric variability for a whole solar period is essential since the ionosphere is strongly dependent on solar activity. Using part of this dataset, covering the years 2005 - 2012, differences in the shape of the topside electron density profiles have been observed. These variations seem to be linked to changes in the ionospheric temperature due to the solar cycle variation. In particular, Mars' ionospheric response to the extreme solar minimum between end-2007 and end-2009 followed a similar pattern to the response observed in the Earth's ionosphere, despite the large differences related to internal origin of the magnetic field between both planets. Plasma parameters such as the scale height as a function of altitude, the main peak characteristics (altitude, density), the total electron content (TEC), the temperatures, and the ionospheric thermal pressures show variations related to the solar cycle. The main changes in the topside ionosphere are detected during the period of very low solar minimum, when ionospheric cooling occurs. The effect on the scale height is analysed in detail. In contrast, a clear increase of the scale height is observed during the high solar activity period due to enhanced ionospheric heating. The scale height variation during the solar cycle has been empirically modelled. The results have been compared with other datasets such as radio-occultation and retarding potential analyser data from old missions, especially in low solar activity periods (e.g. Mariner 4, Viking 1 and 2 landers), as well as with numerical modelling.

Observed variability in the Fraunhofer line spectrum of solar flux, 1975 - 1980

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Livingston, W.; Holweger, H.; White, O. R.

1981-01-01

Over the five years double-pass spectrometer observations of the Sun-as-a-star revealed significant changes in line intensities. The photospheric component weakened linearly with time 0 to 2.3%. From a lack of correlation between these line weakenings and solar activity indicators like sunspots and plage, a global variation of surface properties is inferred. Model-atmosphere analysis suggests a slight reduction in the lower-photospheric temperature gradient corresponding to a 15% increase in the mixing length within the granulation layer. Chromospheric lines such as Ca II H and K, Ca II 8543 and the CN band head weaken synchronously with solar activity. Thus, the behavior of photospheric and chromospheric lines is markedly different, with the possibility of secular change for the former.

Phase 1 of the automated array assembly task of the low cost silicon solar array project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pryor, R. A.; Grenon, L. A.; Coleman, M. G.

1978-01-01

The results of a study of process variables and solar cell variables are presented. Interactions between variables and their effects upon control ranges of the variables are identified. The results of a cost analysis for manufacturing solar cells are discussed. The cost analysis includes a sensitivity analysis of a number of cost factors.

Temperature and size variabilities of the Western Pacific Warm Pool

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yan, Xiao-Hai; Ho, Chung-Ru; Zheng, Quanan; Klemas, Vic

1992-01-01

Variabilities in sea-surface temperature and size of the Western Pacific Warm Pool were tracked with 10 years of satellite multichannel sea-surface temperature observations from 1982 to 1991. The results show that both annual mean sea-surface temperature and the size of the warm pool increased from 1983 to 1987 and fluctuated after 1987. Possible causes of these variations include solar irradiance variabilities, El Nino-Southern Oscillaton events, volcanic activities, and global warming.

Non-photic solar associations of heart rate variability and myocardial infarction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cornélissen, Germaine; Halberg, Franz; Breus, Tamara; Syutkina, Elena V.; Baevsky, Roman; Weydahl, Andi; Watanabe, Yoshihiko; Otsuka, Kuniaki; Siegelova, Jarmila; Fiser, Bohumil; Bakken, Earl E.

2002-03-01

Alignment of serial epidemiological, physiological, including electrocardiographic data with variations in galactic cosmic rays, geomagnetic activity, and atmospheric pressure suggests the possibility of links among these physical environmental variations and health risks, such as myocardial infarctions and ischemic strokes, among others. An increase in the incidence of myocardial infarction in association with magnetic storms, reported by several investigators from Russia, Israel, Italy and Mexico, accounts in Minnesota for a 5% (220cases/year) increase in mortality during years of maximal solar activity by comparison with years of minimal solar activity. Magnetic storms are also found to decrease heart rate variability (HRV), indicating a possible mechanism since a reduced HRV is a prognostic factor for coronary artery disease and myocardial infarction. Longitudinal electrocardiographic monitoring for a week or much longer spans in different geographic locations, notably in the auroral oval, further suggests that the decrease in HRV affects spectral regions other than that around 3.6s (0.15-0.40Hz), reportedly associated with the parasympathetic nervous system. Differences in some associations are observed from solar cycle to solar cycle, and as a function of solar cycle stage, a finding resolving controversies. Coordinated physiological and physical monitoring, the scope of an international project on the Biosphere and the Cosmos, seeks reference values for a better understanding of environmental effects on human health and for testing the merit of space weather reports that could prompt countermeasures in space and on earth. Physiological data being collected systematically worldwide and morbidity/mortality statistics from causes such as myocardial infarction and stroke constitute invaluable data bases for assessing changes within the physiological range, for detecting environmental effects and for recognizing endogenous as well as exogenous disease-risk syndromes. Timely and timed intervention may then be instituted to lower risk, in preference to exclusive current focus on treating overt disease. These chronodiagnostics are particularly important for those venturing into regions away from hospitals, such as astronauts in space.

Variability of nitrifying communities in surface coastal waters of the Eastern South Pacific (∼36° S).

PubMed

Levipan, Héctor A; Molina, Verónica; Anguita, Cristóbal; Rain-Franco, Angel; Belmar, Lucy; Fernandez, Camila

2016-08-03

We report the seasonal and single-diurnal variability of potentially active members of the prokaryote community in coastal surface waters off central Chile and the relationship between nitrifiers and solar radiation by combining 16S cDNA-based pyrosequencing, RT-qPCR of specific gene markers for nitrifiers (amoA, for general AOA, AOA-A, AOA-B, Nitrosopumilus maritimus and beta-AOB; and 16S rRNA gene for Nitrospina-like NOB), and solar irradiance measurements. We also evaluated the effects of artificial UVA-PAR and PAR spectra on nitrifiers by RT-qPCR. All nitrifiers (except AOA-B ecotype) were detected via RT-qPCR but AOA was the only group detected by pyrosequencing. Results showed high variability in their transcriptional levels during the day which could be associated to sunlight intensity thresholds in winter although AOA and Nitrospina-like NOB transcript number were also potentially related with environmental substrate availability. Only N. maritimus amoA transcripts showed a significant negative correlation with solar irradiances in both periods. During spring-summer, Nitrospina transcripts decreased at higher sunlight intensities, whereas the opposite was found during winter under natural (in situ) and artificial light experiments. In summary, a nitrifying community with variable tolerance to solar radiation is responsible for daily nitrification, and was particularly diverse during winter in the study area. © 2016 Society for Applied Microbiology and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Classification of Regional Ionospheric Disturbances Based on Support Vector Machines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Begüm Terzi, Merve; Arikan, Feza; Arikan, Orhan; Karatay, Secil

2016-07-01

Ionosphere is an anisotropic, inhomogeneous, time varying and spatio-temporally dispersive medium whose parameters can be estimated almost always by using indirect measurements. Geomagnetic, gravitational, solar or seismic activities cause variations of ionosphere at various spatial and temporal scales. This complex spatio-temporal variability is challenging to be identified due to extensive scales in period, duration, amplitude and frequency of disturbances. Since geomagnetic and solar indices such as Disturbance storm time (Dst), F10.7 solar flux, Sun Spot Number (SSN), Auroral Electrojet (AE), Kp and W-index provide information about variability on a global scale, identification and classification of regional disturbances poses a challenge. The main aim of this study is to classify the regional effects of global geomagnetic storms and classify them according to their risk levels. For this purpose, Total Electron Content (TEC) estimated from GPS receivers, which is one of the major parameters of ionosphere, will be used to model the regional and local variability that differs from global activity along with solar and geomagnetic indices. In this work, for the automated classification of the regional disturbances, a classification technique based on a robust machine learning technique that have found wide spread use, Support Vector Machine (SVM) is proposed. SVM is a supervised learning model used for classification with associated learning algorithm that analyze the data and recognize patterns. In addition to performing linear classification, SVM can efficiently perform nonlinear classification by embedding data into higher dimensional feature spaces. Performance of the developed classification technique is demonstrated for midlatitude ionosphere over Anatolia using TEC estimates generated from the GPS data provided by Turkish National Permanent GPS Network (TNPGN-Active) for solar maximum year of 2011. As a result of implementing the developed classification technique to the Global Ionospheric Map (GIM) TEC data which is provided by the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), it will be shown that SVM can be a suitable learning method to detect the anomalies in Total Electron Content (TEC) variations. This study is supported by TUBITAK 114E541 project as a part of the Scientific and Technological Research Projects Funding Program (1001).

Solar Physics at Evergreen: Solar Dynamo and Chromospheric MHD

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zita, E. J.; Maxwell, J.; Song, N.; Dikpati, M.

2006-12-01

We describe our five year old solar physics research program at The Evergreen State College. Famed for its cloudy skies, the Pacific Northwest is an ideal location for theoretical and remote solar physics research activities. Why does the Sun's magnetic field flip polarity every 11 years or so? How does this contribute to the magnetic storms Earth experiences when the Sun's field reverses? Why is the temperature in the Sun's upper atmosphere millions of degrees higher than the Sun's surface temperature? How do magnetic waves transport energy in the Sun’s chromosphere and the Earth’s atmosphere? How does solar variability affect climate change? Faculty and undergraduates investigate questions such as these in collaboration with the High Altitude Observatory (HAO) at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder. We will describe successful student research projects, logistics of remote computing, and our current physics investigations into (1) the solar dynamo and (2) chromospheric magnetohydrodynamics.

New challenges in solar energy resource and forecasting in Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kazantzidis, A.; Nikitidou, E.; Salamalikis, V.; Tzoumanikas, P.; Zagouras, A.

2018-05-01

Aerosols and clouds are the most important constituents in the atmosphere that affect the incoming solar radiation, either directly through absorbing and scattering processes or indirectly by changing the optical properties and lifetime of clouds. Under clear skies, aerosols become the dominant factor that affect the intensity of solar irradiance reaching the ground. Under cloudy skies, the high temporal and spatial variability of cloudiness is the key factor for the estimation of solar irradiance. In this study, recent research activities related to the climatology and the prediction of solar energy in Greece are presented with emphasis on new challenges in the climatology of global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and direct normal irradiance (DNI), the changes of DNI due to the decreasing aerosol optical depth and the short-term (15-240 min) forecasts of solar irradiance with the collaborative use of neural networks and satellite images.

Variability of the solar shape (before space dedicated missions)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rozelot, J. P.; Damiani, C.; Lefebvre, S.

2009-12-01

Shrinking or expansion of the solar shape and irradiance variations are ultimately related to solar activity. We give here a review on existing ground-based or space solar radius measurements, extending the concept to shape changes. We show how helioseismology results allow us to look at the variations below the surface, where changes are not uniform, putting in evidence a new shallow layer, the leptocline, which is the seat of solar asphericities, radius variations with the 11-yr cycle and the cradle of complex physical processes: partial ionization of the light elements, opacities changes, superadiabaticity, strong gradient of rotation and pressure. Based on such physical grounds, we show why it is important to get accurate measurements from scheduled dedicated space missions: PICARD, SDO, DynaMICCS, ASTROMETRIA, SPHERIS. Such measurements will provide us a unique opportunity to study in detail the relationship between global solar properties and changes in the Sun's interior.

Empirical predictive models of daily relativistic electron flux at geostationary orbit: Multiple regression analysis

DOE PAGES

Simms, Laura E.; Engebretson, Mark J.; Pilipenko, Viacheslav; ...

2016-04-07

The daily maximum relativistic electron flux at geostationary orbit can be predicted well with a set of daily averaged predictor variables including previous day's flux, seed electron flux, solar wind velocity and number density, AE index, IMF Bz, Dst, and ULF and VLF wave power. As predictor variables are intercorrelated, we used multiple regression analyses to determine which are the most predictive of flux when other variables are controlled. Empirical models produced from regressions of flux on measured predictors from 1 day previous were reasonably effective at predicting novel observations. Adding previous flux to the parameter set improves the predictionmore » of the peak of the increases but delays its anticipation of an event. Previous day's solar wind number density and velocity, AE index, and ULF wave activity are the most significant explanatory variables; however, the AE index, measuring substorm processes, shows a negative correlation with flux when other parameters are controlled. This may be due to the triggering of electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves by substorms that cause electron precipitation. VLF waves show lower, but significant, influence. The combined effect of ULF and VLF waves shows a synergistic interaction, where each increases the influence of the other on flux enhancement. Correlations between observations and predictions for this 1 day lag model ranged from 0.71 to 0.89 (average: 0.78). Furthermore, a path analysis of correlations between predictors suggests that solar wind and IMF parameters affect flux through intermediate processes such as ring current ( Dst), AE, and wave activity.« less

Empirical predictive models of daily relativistic electron flux at geostationary orbit: Multiple regression analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Simms, Laura E.; Engebretson, Mark J.; Pilipenko, Viacheslav

The daily maximum relativistic electron flux at geostationary orbit can be predicted well with a set of daily averaged predictor variables including previous day's flux, seed electron flux, solar wind velocity and number density, AE index, IMF Bz, Dst, and ULF and VLF wave power. As predictor variables are intercorrelated, we used multiple regression analyses to determine which are the most predictive of flux when other variables are controlled. Empirical models produced from regressions of flux on measured predictors from 1 day previous were reasonably effective at predicting novel observations. Adding previous flux to the parameter set improves the predictionmore » of the peak of the increases but delays its anticipation of an event. Previous day's solar wind number density and velocity, AE index, and ULF wave activity are the most significant explanatory variables; however, the AE index, measuring substorm processes, shows a negative correlation with flux when other parameters are controlled. This may be due to the triggering of electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves by substorms that cause electron precipitation. VLF waves show lower, but significant, influence. The combined effect of ULF and VLF waves shows a synergistic interaction, where each increases the influence of the other on flux enhancement. Correlations between observations and predictions for this 1 day lag model ranged from 0.71 to 0.89 (average: 0.78). Furthermore, a path analysis of correlations between predictors suggests that solar wind and IMF parameters affect flux through intermediate processes such as ring current ( Dst), AE, and wave activity.« less

Solar wind controls on Mercury's magnetospheric cusp

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Maosheng; Vogt, Joachim; Heyner, Daniel; Zhong, Jun

2017-06-01

This study assesses the response of the cusp to solar wind changes comprehensively, using 2848 orbits of MErcury Surface, Space ENvironment, GEochemistry, and Ranging (MESSENGER) observation. The assessment entails four steps: (1) propose and validate an approach to estimate the solar wind magnetic field (interplanetary magnetic field (IMF)) for MESSENGER's cusp transit; (2) define an index σ measuring the intensity of the magnetic disturbance which significantly peaks within the cusp and serves as an indicator of the cusp activity level; (3) construct an empirical model of σ as a function of IMF and Mercury's heliocentric distance rsun, through linear regression; and (4) use the model to estimate and compare the polar distribution of the disturbance σ under different conditions for a systematic comparison. The comparison illustrates that the disturbance peak over the cusp is strongest and widest extending in local time for negative IMF Bx and negative IMF Bz, and when Mercury is around the perihelion. Azimuthal shifts are associated with both IMF By and rsun: the cusp moves toward dawn when IMF By or rsun decrease. These dependences are explained in terms of the IMF Bx-controlled dayside magnetospheric topology, the component reconnection model applied to IMF By and Bz, and the variability of solar wind ram pressure associated with heliocentric distance rsun. The applicability of the component reconnection model on IMF By indicates that at Mercury reconnection occurs at lower shear angles than at Earth.