First-graders' allocation of attentional resources in an emotional Stroop task: The role of heart period variability and classroom climate.

PubMed

Scrimin, Sara; Moscardino, Ughetta; Mason, Lucia

2018-06-11

Children's ability to remain focused on a task despite the presence of emotionally salient distractors in the environment is crucial for successful learning and academic performance. This study investigated first-graders' allocation of attentional resources in the presence of distracting emotional, school-related social interaction stimuli. Moreover, we examined whether such attentional processes were influenced by students' self-regulation, as indexed by heart period variability, observed classroom climate, or their interaction. Seventy-two-first graders took part in the study. To assess allocation of attentional resources, students' reaction times on an emotional Stroop task were registered by recording response times to colour frames placed around pictures of distracting emotional, school-related social interaction stimuli (i.e., emotional interference index). Moreover, heart period variability was measured by recording children's electrocardiogram at rest during an individual session, whereas classroom climate was observed during class activities by a trained researcher. Images representing negative social interactions required greater attentional resources than images depicting positive ones. Heart period variability and classroom climate were each significantly and independently associated with the emotional interference index. A significant interaction also emerged, indicating that among children experiencing a negative classroom climate, those who had a higher basal heart period variability (higher self-regulation) were less distracted by negative emotional material and remained more focused on a task compared to those with lower heart period variability (lower self-regulation). Negative interactions require greater attentional resources than positive scenes. Moreover, with a negative classroom climate, higher basal heart period variability is a protective factor. Implications for theory and practice are discussed. © 2018 The British Psychological Society.

Variable Stars in M13. II.The Red Variables and the Globular Cluster Period-Luminosity Relation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osborn, W.; Layden, A.; Kopacki, G.; Smith, H.; Anderson, M.; Kelly, A.; McBride, K.; Pritzl, B.

2017-06-01

New CCD observations have been combined with archival data to investigate the nature of the red variables in the globular cluster M13. Mean magnitudes, colors and variation ranges on the UBVIC system have been determined for the 17 cataloged red variables. 15 of the stars are irregular or semi-regular variables that lie at the top of the red giant branch in the color-magnitude diagram. Two stars are not, including one with a well-defined period and a light curve shape indicating it is an ellipsoidal or eclipsing variable. All stars redder than (V-IC)0=1.38 mag vary, with the amplitudes being larger with increased stellar luminosity and with bluer filter passband. Searches of the data for periodicities yielded typical variability cycle times ranging from 30 d up to 92 d for the most luminous star. Several stars have evidence of multiple periods. The stars' period-luminosity diagram compared to those from microlensing survey data shows that most M13 red variables are overtone pulsators. Comparison with the diagrams for other globular clusters shows a correlation between red variable luminosity and cluster metallicity.

Characteristic variations of sea surface temperature with multiple time scales in the North Pacific

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tanimoto, Youichi; Hanawa, Kimio; Toba, Yoshiaki

1993-06-01

It is unclear whether the recent increases in global temperatures are really due to the increase of greenhouse gases or are a manifestation of natural variability. Temporal evolution and spectral structure of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the North Pacific over the last 37 years are investigated on the three characteristic time scales: shorter than 24 months (HF), 24-60 months (ES), and longer than 60 months (DC). The leading empirical-orthogonal function (EOF) for the DC time scale is characterized by a zonally elongated monopole centered at around 40[degrees]N, 180[degrees]. The leading EOF for the HF time scale is somewhatmore » similar to that for the DC time scale, although there are two centers of action with the same polarity at the mid and western Pacific. The leading EOF for the ES time scale, however, exhibits a different pattern whose center of action at the mid Pacific is located farther southeastward. In the time evolution of the SST anomalies associated with the leading EOF of the DC time scale, several anomaly periods can be identified that last five years or longer. The transition from a persistent period to another with the opposite polarity is generally very brief, except for the one that lasts throughout the late 1960s. The EOF analysis was repeated separately on these persistent anomaly periods and the long transition period. The spatial structure of the leading EOF of the SST variability with the ES time scale is found to be sensitive to the polarity of the decadal anomaly. These results are suggestive of the possible influence of the decadal SST variability upon the spatial structure of the variability with shorter time scales. 31 refs., 8 figs.« less

Using New Theory and Experimental Methods to Understand the Relative Controls of Storage, Antecedent Conditions and Precipitation Intensity on Transit Time Distributions through a Sloping Soil Lysimeter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, M.; Pangle, L. A.; Cardoso, C.; Lora, M.; Wang, Y.; Harman, C. J.; Troch, P. A. A.

2014-12-01

Transit time distributions (TTD) are an efficient way of characterizing transport through the complex flow dynamics of a hydrologic system, and can serve as a basis for spatially-integrated solute transport modeling. Recently there has been progress in the development of a theory of time-variable TTDs that captures the effect of temporal variability in the timing of fluxes as well as changes in flow pathways. Furthermore, a new formulation of this theory allows the essential transport properties of a system to be parameterized by a physically meaningful time-variable probability distribution, the Ω function. This distribution determines how the age distribution of water in storage is sampled by the outflow. The form of the Ω function varies if the flow pathways change, but is not determined by the timing of fluxes (unlike the TTD). In this study, we use this theory to characterize transport by transient flows through a homogeneously packed 1 m3 sloping soil lysimeter. The transit time distribution associated with each of four irrigation periods (repeated daily for 24 days) are compared to examine the significance of changes in the Ω function due to variations in total storage, antecedent conditions, and precipitation intensity. We observe both the time-variable TTD and the Ω function experimentally by applying the PERTH method (Harman and Kim, 2014, GRL, 41, 1567-1575). The method allows us to observe multiple overlapping time-variable TTD in controlled experiments using only two conservative tracers. We hypothesize that both the TTD and the Ω function will vary in time, even in this small scale, because water will take different flow pathways depending on the initial state of the lysimeter and irrigation intensity. However, based on primarily modeling, we conjecture that major variability in the Ω function will be limited to a period during and immediately after each irrigation. We anticipate the Ω function is almost time-invariant (or scales simply with total storage) during the recession period because flow pathways are stable during this period. This is one of the first experimental studies of this type, and the results offer insights into solute transport in transient, variably-saturated systems.

CCD time-resolved photometry of faint cataclysmic variables. I

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Howell, Steve; Szkody, Paula

1988-01-01

CCD time-resolved V and B differential light curves are presented for the dwarf novae AR And, FS Aur, TT Boo, UZ Boo, AF Cam, AL Com, AW Gem, X Leo, RZ Leo, CW Mon, SW UMa, and TW Vir. The time-series observations ranged from 2 to 6 hours and have accuracies of 0.025 mag or better for the majority of the runs. Except for AR And, X Leo, CW Mon, and TW Vir, the periods are below the cataclysmic-variable period gap (about 2 hours), and the systems are potential SU UMa stars. Photometric periods for five of the stars are the first such determinations, while those for the other seven generally confirm previous spectroscopic or photometric observations. In several cases, the photometric modulations are large amplitude (up to 0.5 mag). The results on AL Com and SW UMa indicate they may be magnetic variables.

Experimental investigation of stress-inducing properties of system response times.

PubMed

Kuhmann, W

1989-03-01

System response times are regarded as a major stressor in human-computer interaction. In two earlier studies short (2s) and long (8s) response times were found to have differential effects on psychological, subjective, and performance variables, but results did not favour either response time. Therefore, in another laboratory study with 48 subjects in four independent groups working at a stimulated computer workplace, system response times of 2, 4, 6 and 8s were introduced in the same error detection task as used before, during 3 training and 5 working trials of 20 min each, and the same physiological, subjective and performance measures were obtained. There were no global effects on physiological variables, possibly due to low work load as a result of missing time pressure, but subjective and performance variables clearly favoured the longer system response times. When task periods and response time-periods were analysed separately, a shift of electrodermal activity could be observed from task- to response time-periods during the course of trials in the 8s condition. This did not appear in any other condition, which points to psychophysiological excitement that develops when system response times are too long, thus providing support for the concept of optimal system response times.

Bayesian dynamic modeling of time series of dengue disease case counts

PubMed Central

López-Quílez, Antonio; Torres-Prieto, Alexander

2017-01-01

The aim of this study is to model the association between weekly time series of dengue case counts and meteorological variables, in a high-incidence city of Colombia, applying Bayesian hierarchical dynamic generalized linear models over the period January 2008 to August 2015. Additionally, we evaluate the model’s short-term performance for predicting dengue cases. The methodology shows dynamic Poisson log link models including constant or time-varying coefficients for the meteorological variables. Calendar effects were modeled using constant or first- or second-order random walk time-varying coefficients. The meteorological variables were modeled using constant coefficients and first-order random walk time-varying coefficients. We applied Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulations for parameter estimation, and deviance information criterion statistic (DIC) for model selection. We assessed the short-term predictive performance of the selected final model, at several time points within the study period using the mean absolute percentage error. The results showed the best model including first-order random walk time-varying coefficients for calendar trend and first-order random walk time-varying coefficients for the meteorological variables. Besides the computational challenges, interpreting the results implies a complete analysis of the time series of dengue with respect to the parameter estimates of the meteorological effects. We found small values of the mean absolute percentage errors at one or two weeks out-of-sample predictions for most prediction points, associated with low volatility periods in the dengue counts. We discuss the advantages and limitations of the dynamic Poisson models for studying the association between time series of dengue disease and meteorological variables. The key conclusion of the study is that dynamic Poisson models account for the dynamic nature of the variables involved in the modeling of time series of dengue disease, producing useful models for decision-making in public health. PMID:28671941

Effect of infusion pump fill-stroke flow interruption on response to sodium nitroprusside in surgical patients.

PubMed

Mann, H J; Fuhs, D W; Cerra, F B

1988-03-01

The influence of the piston-cassette pump fill stroke on the pharmacodynamic response to sodium nitroprusside was evaluated prospectively in 10 adult patients in the surgical intensive-care unit. Simultaneous analog recordings of blood pressure and fill stroke were made over three complete pump fill cycles in each patient. Sodium nitroprusside flow rates and concentrations were recorded throughout the data-collection period. Analysis was based on the maximum pressure obtained during the two-minute baseline period before a fill stroke (Pmax baseline), the pressure at the initiation of the fill stroke (P initial), and the maximum pressure obtained during the two-minute period after the fill stroke (Pmax postfill). The maximum systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), and mean blood pressure (MBP) during the baseline and post-fill-stroke periods were significantly different. The mean (+/- S.D.) variability in pressure between the time periods Pmax baseline and Pmax postfill was 3.9 +/- 5.8 mm Hg for SBP (range, -8 to +16), 3.5 +/- 5.7 mm Hg for DBP (range, -7 to +13), and 3.6 +/- 5.6 mm Hg for MBP (range, -7 to +14). The likelihood of a pharmacodynamic change was inconsistent both between and within patients. Within patients the difference between cycles for the variability between time periods ranged from a minimum of 2 mm Hg to a maximum of 16 mm Hg for SBP, 2 mm Hg to 17 mm Hg for DBP, and 1 mm Hg to 17 mm Hg for MBP. The variability within the baseline period (Pmax baseline - P initial) in SBP was significantly greater than the variability between the time periods, while the differences for DBP and MBP were not significant.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

A Detailed Survey of Pulsating Variables in Five Globular Clusters (Abstract)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murphy, B. W.

2016-12-01

(Abstract only) Globular clusters are ideal laboratories for conducting a stellar census. Of particular interest are pulsating variables, which provide astronomers with a tool to probe the properties of the stars and the cluster. We observed each of five globular clusters hundreds to thousands of times over a time span ranging from 2 to 4 years in B, V, and I filters using the SARA 0.6-meter telescope located at Cerro Tololo Interamerican Observatory and the 0.9-meter telescope located at Kitt Peak, Arizona. The images were analyzed using difference image analysis to identify and produce light curves of all variables found in each cluster. In total we identified 377 variables with 140 of these being newly discovered increasing the number of known variables stars in these clusters by 60%. Of the total we have identified 319 RR Lyrae variables (193 RR0, 18 RR01, 101 RR1, 7 RR2), 9 SX Phe stars, 5 Cepheid variables, 11 eclipsing variables, and 33 long period variables. For IC4499 we identified 64 RR0, 18 RR01, 14 RR1, 4 RR2, 1 SX Phe, 1 eclipsing binary, and 2 long period variables. For NGC4833 we identified 10 RR0, 7 RR1, 3 RR2, 6 SX Phe, 5 eclipsing binaries, and 9 long period variables. For NGC6171 (M107) we identified 14 RR0, 7 RR1, and 1 SX Phe. For NGC6402 (M14) we identified 55 RR0, 57 RR1, 1 RR2, 1 SX Phe, 6 Cepheids, 1 eclipsing binary, and 15 long period variables. For NGC6584 we identified 50 RR0, 16 RR1, 4 eclipsing binaries, and 7 long period variables. From our extensive data set we were able to obtain sufficient temporal and complete phase coverage of the RR Lyrae variables. This has allowed us not only to properly classify each of the RR Lyrae variables but also to use Fourier decomposition of the B, V, and I light curves to further analyze the properties of the variable stars and hence the physical properties of each globular cluster.

Basic properties and variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Querci, Francois R.

1987-01-01

Giant and supergiant M, S, and C stars are discussed in this survey of research. Basic properties as determined by spectra, chemical composition, photometry, or variability type are discussed. Space motions and space distributions of cool giants are described. Distribution of these stars in our galaxy and those nearby is discussed. Mira variables in particular are surveyed with emphasis on the following topics: (1) phase lag phenomenon; (2) Mira light curves; (3) variations in color indices; (4) determination of multiple periods; (5) correlations between quantities such as period length, light-curve shape, infrared (IR) excess, and visible and IR color diagram; (6) semiregular (SR) variables and different time scales in SR light variations; (7) irregular variable Lb and Lc stars; (8) different time-scale light variations; (9) hydrogen-deficient carbon (HdC) stars, in particular RCB stars; and (10) irreversible changes and rapid evolution in red variable stars.

Fluxes all of the time? A primer on the temporal representativeness of FLUXNET

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chu, Housen; Baldocchi, Dennis D.; John, Ranjeet; Wolf, Sebastian; Reichstein, Markus

2017-02-01

FLUXNET, the global network of eddy covariance flux towers, provides the largest synthesized data set of CO2, H2O, and energy fluxes. To achieve the ultimate goal of providing flux information "everywhere and all of the time," studies have attempted to address the representativeness issue, i.e., whether measurements taken in a set of given locations and measurement periods can be extrapolated to a space- and time-explicit extent (e.g., terrestrial globe, 1982-2013 climatological baseline). This study focuses on the temporal representativeness of FLUXNET and tests whether site-specific measurement periods are sufficient to capture the natural variability of climatological and biological conditions. FLUXNET is unevenly representative across sites in terms of the measurement lengths and potentials of extrapolation in time. Similarity of driver conditions among years generally enables the extrapolation of flux information beyond measurement periods. Yet such extrapolation potentials are further constrained by site-specific variability of driver conditions. Several driver variables such as air temperature, diurnal temperature range, potential evapotranspiration, and normalized difference vegetation index had detectable trends and/or breakpoints within the baseline period, and flux measurements generally covered similar and biased conditions in those drivers. About 38% and 60% of FLUXNET sites adequately sampled the mean conditions and interannual variability of all driver conditions, respectively. For long-record sites (≥15 years) the percentages increased to 59% and 69%, respectively. However, the justification of temporal representativeness should not rely solely on the lengths of measurements. Whenever possible, site-specific consideration (e.g., trend, breakpoint, and interannual variability in drivers) should be taken into account.

Sequential Modular Position and Momentum Measurements of a Trapped Ion Mechanical Oscillator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flühmann, C.; Negnevitsky, V.; Marinelli, M.; Home, J. P.

2018-04-01

The noncommutativity of position and momentum observables is a hallmark feature of quantum physics. However, this incompatibility does not extend to observables that are periodic in these base variables. Such modular-variable observables have been suggested as tools for fault-tolerant quantum computing and enhanced quantum sensing. Here, we implement sequential measurements of modular variables in the oscillatory motion of a single trapped ion, using state-dependent displacements and a heralded nondestructive readout. We investigate the commutative nature of modular variable observables by demonstrating no-signaling in time between successive measurements, using a variety of input states. Employing a different periodicity, we observe signaling in time. This also requires wave-packet overlap, resulting in quantum interference that we enhance using squeezed input states. The sequential measurements allow us to extract two-time correlators for modular variables, which we use to violate a Leggett-Garg inequality. Signaling in time and Leggett-Garg inequalities serve as efficient quantum witnesses, which we probe here with a mechanical oscillator, a system that has a natural crossover from the quantum to the classical regime.

The first search for variable stars in the open cluster NGC 6253 and its surrounding field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Marchi, F.; Poretti, E.; Montalto, M.; Desidera, S.; Piotto, G.

2010-01-01

Aims: This work presents the first high-precision variability survey in the field of the intermediate-age, metal-rich open cluster NGC 6253. Clusters of this type are benchmarks for stellar evolution models. Methods: Continuous photometric monitoring of the cluster and its surrounding field was performed over a time span of ten nights using the Wide Field Imager mounted at the ESO-MPI 2.2 m telescope. High-quality timeseries, each composed of about 800 datapoints, were obtained for 250 000 stars using ISIS and DAOPHOT packages. Candidate members were selected by using the colour-magnitude diagrams and period-luminosity-colour relations. Membership probabilities based on the proper motions were also used. The membership of all the variables discovered within a radius of 8´ from the centre is discussed by comparing the incidence of the classes in the cluster direction and in the surrounding field. Results: We discovered 595 variables and we also characterized most of them providing their variability classes, periods, and amplitudes. The sample is complete for short periods: we classified 20 pulsating variables, 225 contact systems, 99 eclipsing systems (22 β Lyr type, 59 β Per type, 18 RS CVn type), and 77 rotational variables. The time-baseline hampered the precise characterization of 173 variables with periods longer than 4-5 days. Moreover, we found a cataclysmic system undergoing an outburst of about 2.5 mag. We propose a list of 35 variable stars as probable members of NGC 6253. ARRAY(0x383c870)

IMS/Satellite Situation Center report. Predicted orbit plots for Hawkeye 1, 1976

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1975-01-01

The predicted orbit plots are shown in three projections. The time period covered by each set of projections is 2 days 1 hour, corresponding approximately to the period of Hawkeye 1. The three coordinate systems used are the Geocentric Solar Ecliptic system (GSE), the Geocentric Solar Magnetospheric system (GSM), and the Solar Magnetic system (SM). For each of the three projections, time ticks and codes are given on the satellite trajectories. The codes are interpreted in the table at the base of each plot. Time is given in the table as year/day/decimal hour. The total time covered by each plot is shown at the bottom of each table, and an additional variable is given in the table for each time tick. For the GSM and SM projection this variable is the geocentric distance to the satellite in earth radii, and for the GSE projection the variable is satellite ecliptic latitude in degrees.

Complexity analyses show two distinct types of nonlinear dynamics in short heart period variability recordings

PubMed Central

Porta, Alberto; Bari, Vlasta; Marchi, Andrea; De Maria, Beatrice; Cysarz, Dirk; Van Leeuwen, Peter; Takahashi, Anielle C. M.; Catai, Aparecida M.; Gnecchi-Ruscone, Tomaso

2015-01-01

Two diverse complexity metrics quantifying time irreversibility and local prediction, in connection with a surrogate data approach, were utilized to detect nonlinear dynamics in short heart period (HP) variability series recorded in fetuses, as a function of the gestational period, and in healthy humans, as a function of the magnitude of the orthostatic challenge. The metrics indicated the presence of two distinct types of nonlinear HP dynamics characterized by diverse ranges of time scales. These findings stress the need to render more specific the analysis of nonlinear components of HP dynamics by accounting for different temporal scales. PMID:25806002

Characterizing local variability in long‐period horizontal tilt noise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rohde, M.D.; Ringler, Adam; Hutt, Charles R.; Wilson, David; Holland, Austin; Sandoval, L.D; Storm, Tyler

2017-01-01

Horizontal seismic data are dominated by atmospherically induced tilt noise at long periods (i.e., 30 s and greater). Tilt noise limits our ability to use horizontal data for sensitive seismological studies such as observing free earth modes. To better understand the local spatial variability of long‐period horizontal noise, we observe horizontal noise during quiet time periods in the Albuquerque Seismological Laboratory (ASL) underground vault using four small‐aperture array configurations. Each array comprises eight Streckeisen STS‐2 broadband seismometers. We analyze the spectral content of the data using power spectral density and magnitude‐squared coherence (γ2‐coherence). Our results show a high degree of spatial variability and frequency dependence in the long‐period horizontal wavefield. The variable nature of long‐period horizontal noise in the ASL vault suggests that it might be highly local in nature and not easily characterized by simple physical models when overall noise levels are low, making it difficult to identify locations in the vault with lower horizontal noise. This variability could be limiting our ability to apply coherence analysis for estimating horizontal sensor self‐noise and could also complicate various indirect methods for removing long‐period horizontal noise (e.g., collocated rotational sensor or microbarograph).

Variability of Massive Young Stellar Objects in Cygnus-X

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, Nancy H.; Hora, J. L.; Smith, H. A.

2013-01-01

Young stellar objects (YSOs) are stars in the process of formation. Several recent investigations have shown a high rate of photometric variability in YSOs at near- and mid-infrared wavelengths. Theoretical models for the formation of massive stars (1-10 solar masses) remain highly idealized, and little is known about the mechanisms that produce the variability. An ongoing Spitzer Space Telescope program is studying massive star formation in the Cygnus-X region. In conjunction with the Spitzer observations, we have conducted a ground-based near-infrared observing program of the Cygnus-X DR21 field using PAIRITEL, the automated infrared telescope at Whipple Observatory. Using the Stetson index for variability, we identified variable objects and a number of variable YSOs in our time-series PAIRITEL data of DR21. We have searched for periodicity among our variable objects using the Lomb-Scargle algorithm, and identified periodic variable objects with an average period of 8.07 days. Characterization of these variable and periodic objects will help constrain models of star formation present. This work is supported in part by the NSF REU and DOD ASSURE programs under NSF grant no. 0754568 and by the Smithsonian Institution.

(abstract) Short Time Period Variations in Jupiter's Synchrotron Radiation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bolton, S. J.; Klein, M. J.; Gulkis, S.; Foster, R.; Heiles, C.; Pater, I. de

1994-01-01

The long term time variability of Jupiter's synchrotron radiation on yearly time scales has been established for some time. For many years, theorists have speculated about the effects variations in the solar wind, solar flux, Io, the Io torus, and Jupiter's magnetic field have on the ultra-relativistic electron population responsible for the emission. Early observational results suggested the additional possibility of a short term time variability, on timescales of days to weeks. In 1989 a program designed to investigate the existence of short term time variability using the 85 foot Hat Creek radio telescope operating at 1400 MHz was initiated. The availability of a dedicated telescope provided the opportunity, for the first time, to obtain numerous observations over the full Jupiter rotation period. These and future observations will enable two important studies, characterization and confirmation of possible short term variations, and the investigation of the stability of Jupiter's synchrotron emission beaming curve. Analysis of Hat Creek observations and early results from the Maryland Point Naval research Laboratory will be presented.

Test of synthetic DNA tracers in a periodic hydrodynamic system for time-variable transit time distribution assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dahlke, H. E.; Wang, C.; McNew, C.; McLaughlin, S.; Lyon, S. W.

2016-12-01

Recent research on time-varying transport through hydrologic systems proposed using decomposed over-printed tracer breakthrough curves to directly observe transport through complex flow systems. This method, also known as the PERTH (Periodic Tracer Hierarchy) method requires periodic flow and multiple tracer injections to reveal changes in flow pathways and transport behavior. Time-variable transit time distributions (TTD) estimated from tracer breakthrough curves often vary with the storage state of the system, which in turn is influenced by internal and external variabilities, such as the arrangement of flow pathways and fluctuations in system inputs. Deciphering internal from external variabilities in TTDs might help to advance the use of TTDs for estimating the physical state of a system; however, thus far the finite number of unique conservative tracers available for tracing has limited deeper insights. Synthetic DNA tracers consisting of short strands of synthetic DNA encapsulated by polylactic acid (PLA) microspheres could potentially provide multiple unique tracers with identical transport properties needed to explore time varying transport through hydrologic systems in more detail. An experiment was conducted on the miniLeo hillslope, a 1 m3 sloping lysimeter, within the Biosphere 2 Landscape Evolution Observatory near Tucson, AZ to investigate transit time variability. The goal of the experiment was to 1) test the suitability of using synthetic DNA tracers for estimating TTDs in a hydrologic system and 2) to determine the TTDs of individual tracer pulses under periodic steady-state conditions. Five DNA tracers, consisting of four unique, encapsulated DNA sequences and one free/non-encapsulated DNA sequence, were applied as reference and probe tracers together with deuterium, using the PERTH method. The lysimeter received three 2-hour pulses of rainfall at a rate of 30 mm/hr for 10 days. Initial results show that both the encapsulated and free DNA tracers were successfully transported in a pulsed manner through the system, but had overall longer breakthrough times than the reference deuterium tracer. Comparison of the DNA probe tracers indicate differences in transit times, likely related to differences in tracer mobilization in response to the time-variant rainfall input.

The 2.8-hour flux modulation of the cataclysmic variable PG1711 + 336

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosen, S. R.; Branduardi-Raymont, G.; Mason, K. O.; Murdin, P. G.

1989-04-01

High-speed optical photometry of the cataclysmic variable PG1711 + 336 is used to confirm the presence of a 2.8-hour periodic modulation in the light curve of the star and to improve its ephemeris. Pronounced flickering on time-scales between 10 and 20 minutes is found superimposed on the 2.8-hour variation. Three hours of time-resolved spectroscopy of PG1711 + 336 yields evidence for a radial velocity variation in the He II 4686-A emission line at a period consistent with the 2.8-hour photometric modulation. This is in contrast with observations of the H-alpha line reported in the literature which indicate a 15-hour radial velocity modulation period. The issue of which, if either, of these periods is the orbital period of the system remains unresolved. However, an observation made using the Exosat satellite failed to detect X-ray emission from PG1711 + 336 in the 0.1-10 keV range, which argues against this object being a member of the Intermediate Polar class of magnetic cataclysmic variables.

Cataclysmic variables. Recent multi-frequency observations and theoretical developments; Proceedings of the 93rd IAU Colloquium, Bamberg, West Germany, June 16-19, 1986

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Drechsel, H. (Editor); Rahe, J. (Editor); Kondo, Y. (Editor)

1987-01-01

Papers are presented on the formation and evolution of low-mass close binaries with compact components, the periods of cataclysmic variables, multiwavelength observations of dwarf novae during outbursts, and radio emission from cataclysmic variables. Also considered are long-term optical photometry of the dwarf nova VW Hyi, periodic modulations in the optical light curves of EX Hydrae, and Echelle-Mepsicron time-resolved spectroscopy of the dwarf nova SS Cygni. Other topics include UV and X-ray observations of cataclysmic variables, new EXOSAT observations of TV Columbae, accretion disk evolution, and the boundary layer in cataclysmic variables.

Here Be Dragons: Effective (X-ray) Timing with the Cospectrum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huppenkothen, Daniela; Bachetti, Matteo

2018-01-01

In recent years, the cross spectrum has received considerable attention as a means of characterising the variability of astronomical sources as a function of wavelength. While much has been written about the statistics of time and phase lags, the cospectrum—the real part of the cross spectrum—has only recently been understood as means of mitigating instrumental effects dependent on temporal frequency in astronomical detectors, as well as a method of characterizing the coherent variability in two wavelength ranges on different time scales. In this talk, I will present recent advances made in understanding the statistical properties of cospectra, leading to much improved inferences for periodic and quasi-periodic signals. I will also present a new method to reliably mitigate instrumental effects such as dead time in X-ray detectors, and show how we can use the cospectrum to model highly variable sources such as X-ray binaries or Active Galactic Nuclei.

No evidence for planetary influence on solar activity 330 000 years ago

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cauquoin, A.; Raisbeck, G. M.; Jouzel, J.; Bard, E.

2014-01-01

Context. Abreu et al. (2012, A&A. 548, A88) have recently compared the periodicities in a 14C - 10Be proxy record of solar variability during the Holocene and found a strong similarity with the periodicities predicted on the basis of a model of the time-dependent torque exerted by the planets on the sun's tachocline. If verified, this effect would represent a dramatic advance not only in the basic understanding of the Sun's variable activity, but also in the potential influence of this variability on the Earth's climate. Cameron and Schussler (2013, A&A. 557, A83) have seriously criticized the statistical treatment used by Abreu et al. to test the significance of the coincidences between the periodicities of their model with the Holocene proxy record. Aims: If the Abreu et al. hypothesis is correct, it should be possible to find the same periodicities in the records of cosmogenic nuclides at earlier times. Methods: We present here a high-resolution record of 10Be in the EPICA Dome C (EDC) ice core from Antarctica during the Marine Interglacial Stage 9.3 (MIS 9.3), 325-336 kyr ago, and investigate its spectral properties. Results: We find very limited similarity with the periodicities seen in the proxy record of solar variability during the Holocene, or with that of the model of Abreu et al. Conclusions: We find no support for the hypothesis of a planetary influence on solar activity, and raise the question of whether the centennial periodicities of solar activity observed during the Holocene are representative of solar activity variability in general.

A Search for Pulsation in Young Brown Dwarfs and Very Low Mass Stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cody, Ann Marie

2012-05-01

In 2005, Palla and Baraffe proposed that brown dwarfs and very low mass stars (<0.1 solar masses) may be unstable to radial oscillations during the pre-main-sequence deuterium burning phase. With associated oscillation periods of 1--4 hours, this potentially new class of pulsation offers unprecedented opportunities to probe the interiors and evolution of low-mass objects in the 1--15 million year age range. Furthermore, several previous reports of short-period variability have suggested that deuterium-burning pulsation is in fact at work in young clusters. For my dissertation, I developed a photometric monitoring campaign to search for low-amplitude periodic variability in young brown dwarfs and very low mass stars using meter-class telescopes from both the ground and space. The resulting high-precision, high-cadence time-series photometry targeted four young clusters and achieved sensitivity to periodic oscillations with photometric amplitudes down to several millimagnitudes. This unprecedented variability census probed timescales ranging from minutes to weeks in a sample of 200 young, low-mass cluster members of IC 348, Sigma Orionis, Chamaeleon I, and Upper Scorpius. While I find a dearth of photometric periods under 10 hours, the campaign's high time resolution and precision have enabled detailed study of diverse light curve behavior in the clusters: rotational spot modulation, accretion signatures, and occultations by surrounding disk material. Analysis of the data has led to the establishment of a lower limit for the timescale of periodic photometric variability in young low-mass and substellar objects, an extension of the rotation period distribution to the brown dwarf regime, as well as insights into the connection between variability and circumstellar disks in the Sigma Orionis and Chamaeleon I clusters.

Streamflow variability over the 1881–2011 period in northern Quebec: comparison of hydrological reconstructions based on tree rings and geopotential height field reanalysis

DOE PAGES

Brigode, Pierre; Brissette, Francois; Nicault, Antoine; ...

2016-09-06

Over the last decades, different methods have been used by hydrologists to extend observed hydro-climatic time series, based on other data sources, such as tree rings or sedimentological datasets. For example, tree ring multi-proxies have been studied for the Caniapiscau Reservoir in northern Québec (Canada), leading to the reconstruction of flow time series for the last 150 years. In this paper, we applied a new hydro-climatic reconstruction method on the Caniapiscau Reservoir and compare the obtained streamflow time series against time series derived from dendrohydrology by other authors on the same catchment and study the natural streamflow variability over themore » 1881–2011 period in that region. This new reconstruction is based not on natural proxies but on a historical reanalysis of global geopotential height fields, and aims firstly to produce daily climatic time series, which are then used as inputs to a rainfall–runoff model in order to obtain daily streamflow time series. The performances of the hydro-climatic reconstruction were quantified over the observed period, and showed good performances, in terms of both monthly regimes and interannual variability. The streamflow reconstructions were then compared to two different reconstructions performed on the same catchment by using tree ring data series, one being focused on mean annual flows and the other on spring floods. In terms of mean annual flows, the interannual variability in the reconstructed flows was similar (except for the 1930–1940 decade), with noteworthy changes seen in wetter and drier years. For spring floods, the reconstructed interannual variabilities were quite similar for the 1955–2011 period, but strongly different between 1880 and 1940. Here, the results emphasize the need to apply different reconstruction methods on the same catchments. Indeed, comparisons such as those above highlight potential differences between available reconstructions and, finally, allow a retrospective analysis of the proposed reconstructions of past hydro-climatological variabilities.« less

Streamflow variability over the 1881–2011 period in northern Quebec: comparison of hydrological reconstructions based on tree rings and geopotential height field reanalysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brigode, Pierre; Brissette, Francois; Nicault, Antoine

Over the last decades, different methods have been used by hydrologists to extend observed hydro-climatic time series, based on other data sources, such as tree rings or sedimentological datasets. For example, tree ring multi-proxies have been studied for the Caniapiscau Reservoir in northern Québec (Canada), leading to the reconstruction of flow time series for the last 150 years. In this paper, we applied a new hydro-climatic reconstruction method on the Caniapiscau Reservoir and compare the obtained streamflow time series against time series derived from dendrohydrology by other authors on the same catchment and study the natural streamflow variability over themore » 1881–2011 period in that region. This new reconstruction is based not on natural proxies but on a historical reanalysis of global geopotential height fields, and aims firstly to produce daily climatic time series, which are then used as inputs to a rainfall–runoff model in order to obtain daily streamflow time series. The performances of the hydro-climatic reconstruction were quantified over the observed period, and showed good performances, in terms of both monthly regimes and interannual variability. The streamflow reconstructions were then compared to two different reconstructions performed on the same catchment by using tree ring data series, one being focused on mean annual flows and the other on spring floods. In terms of mean annual flows, the interannual variability in the reconstructed flows was similar (except for the 1930–1940 decade), with noteworthy changes seen in wetter and drier years. For spring floods, the reconstructed interannual variabilities were quite similar for the 1955–2011 period, but strongly different between 1880 and 1940. Here, the results emphasize the need to apply different reconstruction methods on the same catchments. Indeed, comparisons such as those above highlight potential differences between available reconstructions and, finally, allow a retrospective analysis of the proposed reconstructions of past hydro-climatological variabilities.« less

Reliability analysis of structures under periodic proof tests in service

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yang, J.-N.

1976-01-01

A reliability analysis of structures subjected to random service loads and periodic proof tests treats gust loads and maneuver loads as random processes. Crack initiation, crack propagation, and strength degradation are treated as the fatigue process. The time to fatigue crack initiation and ultimate strength are random variables. Residual strength decreases during crack propagation, so that failure rate increases with time. When a structure fails under periodic proof testing, a new structure is built and proof-tested. The probability of structural failure in service is derived from treatment of all the random variables, strength degradations, service loads, proof tests, and the renewal of failed structures. Some numerical examples are worked out.

The Pan-STARRS 1 Medium Deep Field Variable Star Catalog

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flewelling, Heather

2016-01-01

We present the first Pan-STARRS 1 Medium Deep Field Variable Star Catalog (PS1-MDF-VSC). The Pan-STARRS 1 (PS1) telescope is a 1.8 meter survey telescope with a 1.4 Gigapixel camera, located in Haleakala, Hawaii. The Medium Deep survey, which consists of 10 fields located uniformly across the sky, totaling 70 square degrees, is observed each night, in 2-3 filters per field, with 8 exposures per filter, resulting in 3000-4000 data points per star over a time span of 3.5 years. To find the variables, we select objects with > 200 detections, and remove those flagged as saturated. No other cuts are used. There are approximately 2.4 million objects that fit this criteria, with magnitudes between 13th and 24th. These objects are then passed through a lomb-scargle fitting routine to determine periodicity. After a periodicity cut, the candidates are classified by eye into different types of variable stars. We have identified several thousand periodic variable stars, with periods ranging between a few minutes to a few days. We compare our findings to the variable star catalogs within Vizier and AAVSO. In particular, for field MD02, we recover all the variables that are faint in Vizier, and we find good agreement with the periods reported in Vizier.

Ionospheric responses during equinox and solstice periods over Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karatay, Secil; Cinar, Ali; Arikan, Feza

2017-11-01

Ionospheric electron density is the determining variable for investigation of the spatial and temporal variations in the ionosphere. Total Electron Content (TEC) is the integral of the electron density along a ray path that indicates the total variability through the ionosphere. Global Positioning System (GPS) recordings can be utilized to estimate the TEC, thus GPS proves itself as a useful tool in monitoring the total variability of electron distribution within the ionosphere. This study focuses on the analysis of the variations of ionosphere over Turkey that can be grouped into anomalies during equinox and solstice periods using TEC estimates obtained by a regional GPS network. It is observed that noon time depletions in TEC distributions predominantly occur in winter for minimum Sun Spots Numbers (SSN) in the central regions of Turkey which also exhibit high variability due to midlatitude winter anomaly. TEC values and ionospheric variations at solstice periods demonstrate significant enhancements compared to those at equinox periods.

The annual cycles of phytoplankton biomass

USGS Publications Warehouse

Winder, M.; Cloern, J.E.

2010-01-01

Terrestrial plants are powerful climate sentinels because their annual cycles of growth, reproduction and senescence are finely tuned to the annual climate cycle having a period of one year. Consistency in the seasonal phasing of terrestrial plant activity provides a relatively low-noise background from which phenological shifts can be detected and attributed to climate change. Here, we ask whether phytoplankton biomass also fluctuates over a consistent annual cycle in lake, estuarine-coastal and ocean ecosystems and whether there is a characteristic phenology of phytoplankton as a consistent phase and amplitude of variability. We compiled 125 time series of phytoplankton biomass (chloro-phyll a concentration) from temperate and subtropical zones and used wavelet analysis to extract their dominant periods of variability and the recurrence strength at those periods. Fewer than half (48%) of the series had a dominant 12-month period of variability, commonly expressed as the canonical spring-bloom pattern. About 20 per cent had a dominant six-month period of variability, commonly expressed as the spring and autumn or winter and summer blooms of temperate lakes and oceans. These annual patterns varied in recurrence strength across sites, and did not persist over the full series duration at some sites. About a third of the series had no component of variability at either the six-or 12-month period, reflecting a series of irregular pulses of biomass. These findings show that there is high variability of annual phytoplankton cycles across ecosystems, and that climate-driven annual cycles can be obscured by other drivers of population variability, including human disturbance, aperiodic weather events and strong trophic coupling between phytoplankton and their consumers. Regulation of phytoplankton biomass by multiple processes operating at multiple time scales adds complexity to the challenge of detecting climate-driven trends in aquatic ecosystems where the noise to signal ratio is high. ?? 2010 The Royal Society.

Is Solar Variability Reflected in the Nile River?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruzmaikin, Alexander; Feynman, Joan; Yung, Yuk L.

2006-01-01

We investigate the possibility that solar variability influences North African climate by using annual records of the water level of the Nile collected in 622-1470 A.D. The time series of these records are nonstationary, in that the amplitudes and frequencies of the quasi-periodic variations are time-dependent. We apply the Empirical Mode Decomposition technique especially designed to deal with such time series. We identify two characteristic timescales in the records that may be linked to solar variability: a period of about 88 years and one exceeding 200 years. We show that these timescales are present in the number of auroras reported per decade in the Northern Hemisphere at the same time. The 11-year cycle is seen in the Nile's high-water level variations, but it is damped in the low-water anomalies. We suggest a possible physical link between solar variability and the low-frequency variations of the Nile water level. This link involves the influence of solar variability on the atmospheric Northern Annual Mode and on its North Atlantic Ocean and Indian Ocean patterns that affect the rainfall over the sources of the Nile in eastern equatorial Africa.

[Gene method for inconsistent hydrological frequency calculation. I: Inheritance, variability and evolution principles of hydrological genes].

PubMed

Xie, Ping; Wu, Zi Yi; Zhao, Jiang Yan; Sang, Yan Fang; Chen, Jie

2018-04-01

A stochastic hydrological process is influenced by both stochastic and deterministic factors. A hydrological time series contains not only pure random components reflecting its inheri-tance characteristics, but also deterministic components reflecting variability characteristics, such as jump, trend, period, and stochastic dependence. As a result, the stochastic hydrological process presents complicated evolution phenomena and rules. To better understand these complicated phenomena and rules, this study described the inheritance and variability characteristics of an inconsistent hydrological series from two aspects: stochastic process simulation and time series analysis. In addition, several frequency analysis approaches for inconsistent time series were compared to reveal the main problems in inconsistency study. Then, we proposed a new concept of hydrological genes origined from biological genes to describe the inconsistent hydrolocal processes. The hydrologi-cal genes were constructed using moments methods, such as general moments, weight function moments, probability weight moments and L-moments. Meanwhile, the five components, including jump, trend, periodic, dependence and pure random components, of a stochastic hydrological process were defined as five hydrological bases. With this method, the inheritance and variability of inconsistent hydrological time series were synthetically considered and the inheritance, variability and evolution principles were fully described. Our study would contribute to reveal the inheritance, variability and evolution principles in probability distribution of hydrological elements.

Climate variability from the Florida Bay sedimentary record: Possible teleconnections to ENSO, PNA and CNP

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cronin, T. M.; Dwyer, Gary S.; Schwede, S.B.; Vann, C.D.; Dowsett, H.

2002-01-01

We analyzed decadal and interannual climate variability in South Florida since 1880 using geochemical and faunal paleosalinity indicators from isotopically dated sediment cores at Russell Bank in Florida Bay (FB). Using the relative abundance of 2 ostracode species and the Mg/Ca ratios in Loxoconcha matagordensis shells to reconstruct paleosalinity, we found evidence for cyclic oscillations in the salinity of central FB. During this time salinity fluctuated from as low as ~18 parts per thousand (ppt) to as high as ~57 ppt. Time series analyses suggest, in addition to a 5.6 yr Mg/Ca based salinity periodicity, there are 3 other modes of variability in paleosalinity indicators: 6-7, 8-9, and 13-14 yr periods which occur in all paleo-proxies. To search for factors that might cause salinity to vary in FB, we compared the Russell Bank paleosalinity record to South Florida winter rainfall, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the winter Pacific North American (PNA) index, and a surrogate for the PNA in the winter season, the Central North Pacific (CNP) index. SOI and PNA/CNP appear to be associated with South Florida winter precipitation. Time series analyses of SOI and winter rainfall for the period 1910-1999 suggest ~5, 6-7, 8-9 and 13-14 yr cycles. The 6-7 yr and 13-14 yr cycles correspond to those observed in the faunal and geochemical time series from Russell Bank. The main periods of the CNP index are 5-6 and 13-15 yr, which are similar to those observed in FB paleosalinity. Cross-spectral analyses show that winter rainfall and salinity are coherent at 5.6 yr with a salinity lag of ~1.6 mo. These results suggest that regional rainfall variability influences FB salinity over interannual and decadal timescales and that much of this variability may have its origin in climate variability in the Pacific Ocean/atmosphere system.

Extreme events, trends, and variability in Northern Hemisphere lake-ice phenology (1855-2005)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Benson, Barbara J.; Magnuson, John J.; Jensen, Olaf P.; Card, Virginia M.; Hodgkins, Glenn; Korhonen, Johanna; Livingstone, David M.; Stewart, Kenton M.; Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A.; Granin, Nick G.

2012-01-01

Often extreme events, more than changes in mean conditions, have the greatest impact on the environment and human well-being. Here we examine changes in the occurrence of extremes in the timing of the annual formation and disappearance of lake ice in the Northern Hemisphere. Both changes in the mean condition and in variability around the mean condition can alter the probability of extreme events. Using long-term ice phenology data covering two periods 1855–6 to 2004–5 and 1905–6 to 2004–5 for a total of 75 lakes, we examined patterns in long-term trends and variability in the context of understanding the occurrence of extreme events. We also examined patterns in trends for a 30-year subset (1975–6 to 2004–5) of the 100-year data set. Trends for ice variables in the recent 30-year period were steeper than those in the 100- and 150-year periods, and trends in the 150-year period were steeper than in the 100-year period. Ranges of rates of change (days per decade) among time periods based on linear regression were 0.3−1.6 later for freeze, 0.5−1.9 earlier for breakup, and 0.7−4.3 shorter for duration. Mostly, standard deviation did not change, or it decreased in the 150-year and 100-year periods. During the recent 50-year period, standard deviation calculated in 10-year windows increased for all ice measures. For the 150-year and 100-year periods changes in the mean ice dates rather than changes in variability most strongly influenced the significant increases in the frequency of extreme lake ice events associated with warmer conditions and decreases in the frequency of extreme events associated with cooler conditions.

Photometry of the three eclipsing novalike variables EC 21178-5417, GS Pav and V345 Pav

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bruch, Albert

2017-10-01

As part of a project to better characterize comparatively bright, yet little studied cataclysmic variables time resolved photometry of the three eclipsing novalike variables EC 21178-5417, GS Pav und V345 Pav is presented. Previously known orbital periods are significantly improved and long-term ephemeris are derived. Variations of eclipse profiles, occurring on time scales of days to weeks, are analyzed. Out of eclipse the light curves are characterized by low scale flickering superposed on more gradual variations with amplitudes limited to a few tenths of a magnitude and profiles which at least in EC 21178-5417 and GS Pav roughly follow the same pattern in all observed cycles. Additionally, signs for variations on the time scale of some tens of minutes are seen in GS Pav, most clearly in two subsequent nights when in the first of these a signal with a period of 15.7 min was observed over several hours. In the second night variations with twice this period were seen. While no additional insight could be gained on quasi periodic oscillations (QPOs) and dwarf nova oscillations in EC 21178-5417, previously detected by Warner et al. (2003), and while such oscillations could not be found in V345 Pav, stacked power spectra of GS Pav clearly reveal the presence of QPOs over time intervals of several hours with periods varying between 200 s and 500 s in that system.

Near-infrared variability study of the central 2.3 arcmin × 2.3 arcmin of the Galactic Centre - I. Catalogue of variable sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, Hui; Schödel, Rainer; Williams, Benjamin F.; Nogueras-Lara, Francisco; Gallego-Cano, Eulalia; Gallego-Calvente, Teresa; Wang, Q. Daniel; Morris, Mark R.; Do, Tuan; Ghez, Andrea

2017-09-01

We used 4-yr baseline Hubble Space Telescope/Wide Field Camera 3 IR observations of the Galactic Centre in the F153M band (1.53 μm) to identify variable stars in the central ∼2.3 arcmin × 2.3 arcmin field. We classified 3845 long-term (periods from months to years) and 76 short-term (periods of a few days or less) variables among a total sample of 33 070 stars. For 36 of the latter ones, we also derived their periods (<3 d). Our catalogue not only confirms bright long period variables and massive eclipsing binaries identified in previous works but also contains many newly recognized dim variable stars. For example, we found δ Scuti and RR Lyrae stars towards the Galactic Centre for the first time, as well as one BL Her star (period < 1.3 d). We cross-correlated our catalogue with previous spectroscopic studies and found that 319 variables have well-defined stellar types, such as Wolf-Rayet, OB main sequence, supergiants and asymptotic giant branch stars. We used colours and magnitudes to infer the probable variable types for those stars without accurately measured periods or spectroscopic information. We conclude that the majority of unclassified variables could potentially be eclipsing/ellipsoidal binaries and Type II Cepheids. Our source catalogue will be valuable for future studies aimed at constraining the distance, star formation history and massive binary fraction of the Milky Way nuclear star cluster.

IMS/Satellite Situation Center report. Predicted orbit plots for IMP-H-1976. [Explorer 47 satellite

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1975-01-01

Predicted orbit plots are shown in three projections. The time period covered by each set of projections is 12 days 6 hours, corresponding approximately to the period of IMP-H satellite. The three coordinate systems used are the Geocentric Solar Ecliptic system (GSE), the Geocentric Solar Magnetospheric system (GSM), and the Solar Magnetic system (SM). For each of the three projections, time ticks and codes are given on the satellite trajectories. The codes are interpreted in the table at the base of each plot. Time is given in the table as year/day/decimal hour. The total time covered by each plot is shown at the bottom of each table. An additional variable is given in the table for each time tick. For the GSM and SM projection this variable is the geocentric distance to the satellite in earth radii, and for the GSE projection the variable is satellite ecliptic latitude in degrees.

Near-infrared Variability in the 2MASS Calibration Fields: A Search for Planetary Transit Candidates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Plavchan, Peter; Jura, M.; Kirkpatrick, J. Davy; Cutri, Roc M.; Gallagher, S. C.

2008-01-01

The Two Micron All Sky Survey (2MASS) photometric calibration observations cover approximately 6 square degrees on the sky in 35 'calibration fields,' each sampled in nominal photometric conditions between 562 and 3692 times during the 4 years of the 2MASS mission. We compile a catalog of variables from the calibration observations to search for M dwarfs transited by extrasolar planets. We present our methods for measuring periodic and nonperiodic flux variability. From 7554 sources with apparent K(sub s) magnitudes between 5.6 and 16.1, we identify 247 variables, including extragalactic variables and 23 periodic variables. We have discovered three M dwarf eclipsing systems, including two candidates for transiting extrasolar planets.

Modeling of time trends and interactions in vital rates using restricted regression splines.

PubMed

Heuer, C

1997-03-01

For the analysis of time trends in incidence and mortality rates, the age-period-cohort (apc) model has became a widely accepted method. The considered data are arranged in a two-way table by age group and calendar period, which are mostly subdivided into 5- or 10-year intervals. The disadvantage of this approach is the loss of information by data aggregation and the problems of estimating interactions in the two-way layout without replications. In this article we show how splines can be useful when yearly data, i.e., 1-year age groups and 1-year periods, are given. The estimated spline curves are still smooth and represent yearly changes in the time trends. Further, it is straightforward to include interaction terms by the tensor product of the spline functions. If the data are given in a nonrectangular table, e.g., 5-year age groups and 1-year periods, the period and cohort variables can be parameterized by splines, while the age variable is parameterized as fixed effect levels, which leads to a semiparametric apc model. An important methodological issue in developing the nonparametric and semiparametric models is stability of the estimated spline curve at the boundaries. Here cubic regression splines will be used, which are constrained to be linear in the tails. Another point of importance is the nonidentifiability problem due to the linear dependency of the three time variables. This will be handled by decomposing the basis of each spline by orthogonal projection into constant, linear, and nonlinear terms, as suggested by Holford (1983, Biometrics 39, 311-324) for the traditional apc model. The advantage of using splines for yearly data compared to the traditional approach for aggregated data is the more accurate curve estimation for the nonlinear trend changes and the simple way of modeling interactions between the time variables. The method will be demonstrated with hypothetical data as well as with cancer mortality data.

Near-infrared Variability in the Orion Nebula Cluster

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rice, Thomas S.; Reipurth, Bo; Wolk, Scott J.; Vaz, Luiz Paulo; Cross, N. J. G.

2015-10-01

Using UKIRT on Mauna Kea, we have carried out a new near-infrared J, H, K monitoring survey of almost a square degree of the star-forming Orion Nebula Cluster with observations on 120 nights over three observing seasons, spanning a total of 894 days. We monitored ˜15,000 stars down to J≈ 20 using the WFCAM instrument, and have extracted 1203 significantly variable stars from our data. By studying variability in young stellar objects (YSOs) in the H - K, K color-magnitude diagram, we are able to distinguish between physical mechanisms of variability. Many variables show color behavior indicating either dust-extinction or disk/accretion activity, but we find that when monitored for longer periods of time, a number of stars shift between these two variability mechanisms. Further, we show that the intrinsic timescale of disk/accretion variability in young stars is longer than that of dust-extinction variability. We confirm that variability amplitude is statistically correlated with evolutionary class in all bands and colors. Our investigations of these 1203 variables have revealed 73 periodic AA Tau type variables, many large-amplitude and long-period (P\\gt 15 days) YSOs, including three stars showing widely spaced periodic brightening events consistent with circumbinary disk activity, and four new eclipsing binaries. These phenomena and others indicate the activity of long-term disk/accretion variability processes taking place in young stars. We have made the light curves and associated data for these 1203 variables available online.

ERP correlates of word production predictors in picture naming: a trial by trial multiple regression analysis from stimulus onset to response.

PubMed

Valente, Andrea; Bürki, Audrey; Laganaro, Marina

2014-01-01

A major effort in cognitive neuroscience of language is to define the temporal and spatial characteristics of the core cognitive processes involved in word production. One approach consists in studying the effects of linguistic and pre-linguistic variables in picture naming tasks. So far, studies have analyzed event-related potentials (ERPs) during word production by examining one or two variables with factorial designs. Here we extended this approach by investigating simultaneously the effects of multiple theoretical relevant predictors in a picture naming task. High density EEG was recorded on 31 participants during overt naming of 100 pictures. ERPs were extracted on a trial by trial basis from picture onset to 100 ms before the onset of articulation. Mixed-effects regression models were conducted to examine which variables affected production latencies and the duration of periods of stable electrophysiological patterns (topographic maps). Results revealed an effect of a pre-linguistic variable, visual complexity, on an early period of stable electric field at scalp, from 140 to 180 ms after picture presentation, a result consistent with the proposal that this time period is associated with visual object recognition processes. Three other variables, word Age of Acquisition, Name Agreement, and Image Agreement influenced response latencies and modulated ERPs from ~380 ms to the end of the analyzed period. These results demonstrate that a topographic analysis fitted into the single trial ERPs and covering the entire processing period allows one to associate the cost generated by psycholinguistic variables to the duration of specific stable electrophysiological processes and to pinpoint the precise time-course of multiple word production predictors at once.

Investigating Inter-Individual Differences in Short-Term Intra-Individual Variability

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wang, Lijuan; Hamaker, Ellen; Bergeman, C. S.

2012-01-01

Intra-individual variability over a short period of time may contain important information about how individuals differ from each other. In this article we begin by discussing diverse indicators for quantifying intra-individual variability and indicate their advantages and disadvantages. Then we propose an alternative method that models…

Period variation studies of six contact binaries in M4

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rukmini, Jagirdar; Shanti Priya, Devarapalli

2018-04-01

We present the first period study of six contact binaries in the closest globular cluster M4 the data collected from June 1995‑June 2009 and Oct 2012‑Sept 2013. New times of minima are determined for all the six variables and eclipse timing (O-C) diagrams along with the quadratic fit are presented. For all the variables, the study of (O-C) variations reveals changes in the periods. In addition, the fundamental parameters for four of the contact binaries obtained using the Wilson-Devinney code (v2003) are presented. Planned observations of these binaries using the 3.6-m Devasthal Optical Telescope (DOT) and the 4-m International Liquid Mirror Telescope (ILMT) operated by the Aryabhatta Research Institute of Observational Sciences (ARIES; Nainital) can throw light on their evolutionary status from long term period variation studies.

Long-term variability of T Tauri stars using WASP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rigon, Laura; Scholz, Alexander; Anderson, David; West, Richard

2017-03-01

We present a reference study of the long-term optical variability of young stars using data from the WASP project. Our primary sample is a group of well-studied classical T Tauri stars (CTTSs), mostly in Taurus-Auriga. WASP light curves cover time-scales of up to 7 yr and typically contain 10 000-30 000 data points. We quantify the variability as a function of time-scale using the time-dependent standard deviation 'pooled sigma'. We find that the overwhelming majority of CTTSs have a low-level variability with σ < 0.3 mag dominated by time-scales of a few weeks, consistent with rotational modulation. Thus, for most young stars, monitoring over a month is sufficient to constrain the total amount of variability over time-scales of up to a decade. The fraction of stars with a strong optical variability (σ > 0.3 mag) is 21 per cent in our sample and 21 per cent in an unbiased control sample. An even smaller fraction (13 per cent in our sample, 6 per cent in the control) show evidence for an increase in variability amplitude as a function of time-scale from weeks to months or years. The presence of long-term variability correlates with the spectral slope at 3-5 μm, which is an indicator of inner disc geometry, and with the U-B band slope, which is an accretion diagnostics. This shows that the long-term variations in CTTSs are predominantly driven by processes in the inner disc and in the accretion zone. Four of the stars with long-term variations show periods of 20-60 d, significantly longer than the rotation periods and stable over months to years. One possible explanation is cyclic changes in the interaction between the disc and the stellar magnetic field.

A Detailed Study of the Variable Stars in Five Galactic Globular Clusters: IC4499, NGC4833, NGC6171 (M107), NGC6402 (M14), and NGC6584

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murphy, Brian W.; Darragh, Andrew; Hettinger, Paul; Hibshman, Adam; Johnson, Elliott W.; Liu, Z. J.; Pajkos, Michael A.; Stephenson, Hunter R.; Vondersaar, John R.; Conroy, Kyle E.; McCombs, Thayne A.; Reinhardt, Erik D.; Toddy, Joseph

2015-08-01

We present the results of an extensive study intended to search for and properly classify the variable stars in five galactic globular clusters. Each of the five clusters was observed hundreds to thousands of times over a time span ranging from 2 to 4 years using the SARA 0.6m located at Cerro Tololo Interamerican Observatory. The images were analyzed using the image subtract method of Alard (2000) to identify and produce light curves of all variables found in each cluster. In total we identified 373 variables with 140 of these being newly discovered increasing the number of known variables stars in these clusters by 60%. Of the total we have identified 312 RR Lyrae variables (187 RR0, 18 RR01, 99 RR1, 8 RR2), 9 SX Phe stars, 6 Cepheid variables, 11 eclipsing variables, and 35 long period variables. For IC4499 we identified 64 RR0, 18 RR01, 14 RR1, 4 RR2, 1 SX Phe, 1 eclipsing binary, and 2 long period variables. For NGC4833 we identified 10 RR0, 7 RR1, 2 RR2, 6 SX Phe, 5 eclipsing binaries, and 9 long period variables. For NGC6171 (M107) we identified 13 RR0, 7 RR1, and 1 SX Phe. For NGC6402 (M14) we identified 52 RR0, 56 RR1, 1 RR2, 1 SX Phe, 6 Cepheids, 1 eclipsing binary, and 15 long period variables. For NGC6584 we identified 48 RR0, 15 RR1, 1 RR2, 5 eclipsing binaries, and 9 long period variables. Using the RR Lyrae variables we found the mean V magnitude of the horizontal branch to be VHB = ⟨V ⟩RR = 17.63, 15.51, 15.72, 17.13, and 16.37 magnitudes for IC4499, NGC4833, NGC6171 (M107), NGC6402 (M14), and NGC6584, respectively. From our extensive data set we were able to obtain sufficient temporal and complete phase coverage of the RR Lyrae variables. This has allowed us not only to properly classify each of the RR Lyrae variables but also to use Fourier decomposition of the light curves to further analyze the properties of the variable stars and hence physical properties of each clusters. In this poster we will give the temperature, radius, stellar mass, metallicity, and helium abundance of the set of RR Lyrae variable stars found in each of the five globular clusters.

Decadal time scale variability recorded in the Quelccaya summit ice core δ18O isotopic ratio series and its relation with the sea surface temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mélice, J. L.; Roucou, P.

The spectral characteristics of the δ18O isotopic ratio time series of the Quelccaya ice cap summit core are investigated with the multi taper method (MTM), the singular spectrum analysis (SSA) and the wavelet transform (WT) techniques for the 500 y long 1485-1984 period. The most significant (at the 99.8% level) cycle according to the MTM F-test has a period centered at 14.4 y while the largest variance explaining oscillation according to the SSA technique has a period centered at 12.9 y. The stability over time of these periods is investigated by performing evolutive MTM and SSA on the 500 y long δ18O series with a 100 y wide moving window. It is shown that the cycles with largest amplitude and that the oscillations with largest extracting variance have corresponding periods aggregated around 13.5 y that are very stable over the period between 1485 and 1984. The WT of the same isotopic time series reveals the existence of a main oscillation around 12 y which are also very stable in time. The relation between the isotopic data at Quelccaya and the annual sea surface temperature (SST) field anomalies is then evaluated for the overlapping 1919-1984 period. Significant global correlation and significant coherency at 12.1 y are found between the isotopic series and the annual global sea surface temperature (GSST) series. Moreover, the correlation between the low (over 8 y) frequency component of the isotopic time series and the annual SST field point out significant values in the tropical North Atlantic. This region is characterized by a main SST variability at 12.8 y. The Quelccaya δ18O isotopic ratio series may therefore be considered as a good recorder of the tropical North Atlantic SSTs. This may be explained by the following mechanism: the water vapor amount evaporated by the tropical North Atlantic is function of the SST. So is the water vapor δ18O isotopic ratio. This water vapor is advected during the rainy season by northeast winds and precipitates at the Quelccaya summit with its tropical North Atlantic isotopic signature. It is also suggested from this described stability of the decadal time scale variability observed in the Quelccaya isotopic series, that the decadal time scale GSST variability was also stable during the last five centuries.

Delay-induced wave instabilities in single-species reaction-diffusion systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otto, Andereas; Wang, Jian; Radons, Günter

2017-11-01

The Turing (wave) instability is only possible in reaction-diffusion systems with more than one (two) components. Motivated by the fact that a time delay increases the dimension of a system, we investigate the presence of diffusion-driven instabilities in single-species reaction-diffusion systems with delay. The stability of arbitrary one-component systems with a single discrete delay, with distributed delay, or with a variable delay is systematically analyzed. We show that a wave instability can appear from an equilibrium of single-species reaction-diffusion systems with fluctuating or distributed delay, which is not possible in similar systems with constant discrete delay or without delay. More precisely, we show by basic analytic arguments and by numerical simulations that fast asymmetric delay fluctuations or asymmetrically distributed delays can lead to wave instabilities in these systems. Examples, for the resulting traveling waves are shown for a Fisher-KPP equation with distributed delay in the reaction term. In addition, we have studied diffusion-induced instabilities from homogeneous periodic orbits in the same systems with variable delay, where the homogeneous periodic orbits are attracting resonant periodic solutions of the system without diffusion, i.e., periodic orbits of the Hutchinson equation with time-varying delay. If diffusion is introduced, standing waves can emerge whose temporal period is equal to the period of the variable delay.

Impact of the infectious period on epidemics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilkinson, Robert R.; Sharkey, Kieran J.

2018-05-01

The duration of the infectious period is a crucial determinant of the ability of an infectious disease to spread. We consider an epidemic model that is network based and non-Markovian, containing classic Kermack-McKendrick, pairwise, message passing, and spatial models as special cases. For this model, we prove a monotonic relationship between the variability of the infectious period (with fixed mean) and the probability that the infection will reach any given subset of the population by any given time. For certain families of distributions, this result implies that epidemic severity is decreasing with respect to the variance of the infectious period. The striking importance of this relationship is demonstrated numerically. We then prove, with a fixed basic reproductive ratio (R0), a monotonic relationship between the variability of the posterior transmission probability (which is a function of the infectious period) and the probability that the infection will reach any given subset of the population by any given time. Thus again, even when R0 is fixed, variability of the infectious period tends to dampen the epidemic. Numerical results illustrate this but indicate the relationship is weaker. We then show how our results apply to message passing, pairwise, and Kermack-McKendrick epidemic models, even when they are not exactly consistent with the stochastic dynamics. For Poissonian contact processes, and arbitrarily distributed infectious periods, we demonstrate how systems of delay differential equations and ordinary differential equations can provide upper and lower bounds, respectively, for the probability that any given individual has been infected by any given time.

Solar cycles: A tutorial

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moussas, X.; Polygiannakis, J. M.; Preka-Papadema, P.; Exarhos, G.

The Sun is the nearest stellar and astrophysical laboratory, available for detailed studies in several fields of physics and astronomy. It is a sphere of hot gas with a complex and highly variable magnetic field which plays a very important role. The Sun shows an unprecedented wealth of phenomena that can be studied extensively and to the greatest detail, in a way we will never be in a position to study in other stars. Humans have studied the Sun for millennia and after the discovery of the telescope they realized that the Sun varies with time, i.e., solar activity is highly variable, in tune scales of millennia to seconds. The study of these variabilities helps us to understand how the Sun works and how it affects the interplanetary medium, Earth and the other planets. Solar power varies substantially and greatly affects the Earth and humans. Solar activity has several important periodicities, and quasi-periodicities. Knowledge of these periodicities helps us to forecast, to an extent, solar events that affect our planet. The most prominent periodicity of solar activity is the one of 11 years. The actual period is in fact 22 years because the magnetic field polarity of the Sun has to be taken into account. The Sun can be considered as a non-linear RLC electric circuit with a period of 22 years. The RLC equivalent circuit of the Sun is a van der Pol oscillator and such a model can explain many solar phenomena, including the variability of solar energy with time. Other quasi-periodicities such as the ones of 154 days, the 1.3, 1.7 to 2 years, etc., some of which might be harmonics of the 22 year cycle are also present in solar activity, and their study is very interesting and important since they affect the Earth and human activities. The period of 27 days related to solar rotation plays also a very important role in geophysical phenomena. It is noticeable that almost all periodicities are highly variable with time as wavelet analysis reveals. It is very important for humans to be in a position to forecast solar activity during the next hour, day, year, decade and century, because solar phenomena affect life on Earth and such predictions will help politicians and policy makers to better serve their countries and our planet.

An alternative way to evaluate chemistry-transport model variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menut, Laurent; Mailler, Sylvain; Bessagnet, Bertrand; Siour, Guillaume; Colette, Augustin; Couvidat, Florian; Meleux, Frédérik

2017-03-01

A simple and complementary model evaluation technique for regional chemistry transport is discussed. The methodology is based on the concept that we can learn about model performance by comparing the simulation results with observational data available for time periods other than the period originally targeted. First, the statistical indicators selected in this study (spatial and temporal correlations) are computed for a given time period, using colocated observation and simulation data in time and space. Second, the same indicators are used to calculate scores for several other years while conserving the spatial locations and Julian days of the year. The difference between the results provides useful insights on the model capability to reproduce the observed day-to-day and spatial variability. In order to synthesize the large amount of results, a new indicator is proposed, designed to compare several error statistics between all the years of validation and to quantify whether the period and area being studied were well captured by the model for the correct reasons.

Periodic cycles of social outbursts of activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berestycki, H.; Rossi, L.; Rodríguez, N.

2018-01-01

We study the long-time behavior of a 2 × 2 continuous dynamical system with a time-periodic source term which is either of cooperative-type or activator-inhibitor type. This system was recently introduced in the literature [2] to model the dynamics of social outbursts and consists of an explicit field measuring the level of activity and an implicit field measuring the effective tension. The system can be used to represent a general type of phenomena in which one variable exhibits self-excitement once the other variable has reached a critical value. The time-periodic source term allows one to analyze the effect that periodic external shocks to the system play in the dynamics of the outburst of activity. For cooperative systems we prove that for small shocks the level of activity dies down whereas, as the intensity of the shocks increases, the level of activity converges to a positive periodic solution (excited cycle). We further show that in some cases there is multiplicity of excited cycles. We derive a subset of these results for the activator-inhibitor system.

An investigation of the photometric variability of confirmed and candidate Galactic Be stars using ASAS-3 data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernhard, Klaus; Otero, Sebastián; Hümmerich, Stefan; Kaltcheva, Nadejda; Paunzen, Ernst; Bohlsen, Terry

2018-05-01

We present an investigation of a large sample of confirmed (N=233) and candidate (N=54) Galactic classical Be stars (mean V magnitude range of 6.4 to 12.6 mag), with the main aim of characterizing their photometric variability. Our sample stars were preselected among early-type variables using light curve morphology criteria. Spectroscopic information was gleaned from the literature, and archival and newly-acquired spectra. Photometric variability was analyzed using archival ASAS-3 time series data. To enable a comparison of results, we have largely adopted the methodology of Labadie-Bartz et al. (2017), who carried out a similar investigation based on KELT data. Complex photometric variations were established in most stars: outbursts on different time-scales (in 73±5 % of stars), long-term variations (36±6 %), periodic variations on intermediate time-scales (1±1 %) and short-term periodic variations (6±3 %). 24±6 % of the outbursting stars exhibit (semi)periodic outbursts. We close the apparent void of rare outbursters reported by Labadie-Bartz et al. (2017), and show that Be stars with infrequent outbursts are not rare. While we do not find a significant difference in the percentage of stars showing outbursts among early-type, mid-type and late-type Be stars, we show that early-type Be stars exhibit much more frequent outbursts. We have measured rising and falling times for well-covered and well-defined outbursts. Nearly all outburst events are characterized by falling times that exceed the rising times. No differences were found between early-, mid- and late-type stars; a single non-linear function adequately describes the ratio of falling time to rising time across all spectral subtypes, with the ratio being larger for short events.

X-ray Variability of the Magnetic Cataclysmic Variable V1432 Aql and the Seyfert Galaxy NGC 6814

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mukai, K.; Hellier, C.; Madejski, G.; Patterson, J.; Skillman, D. R.

2003-01-01

V1432 Aquilae (=RX J1940.2-1025) is the X-ray bright, eclipsing magnetic cataclysmic variable approximately 37 (sup) away from the Seyfert galaxy, NGC 6814. Due to a 0.3% difference between the orbital (12116.3 s) and the spin (12150 s) periods: the accretion geometry changes over the approximately 50 day beat period. Here we report the results of an RXTE campaign to observe the eclipse 25 times, as well as of archival observations with ASCA and BeppoSAX. Having confirmed that the eclipse is indeed caused by the secondary, we use the eclipse timings and profiles to map the accretion geometry as a function of the beat phase. We find that the accretion region is compact, and that it moves relative to the center of white dwarf on the beat period. The amplitude of this movement suggest a low-mass white dwarf, in contrast to the high mass previously estimated from its X-ray spectrum. The size of the X-ray emission region appears to be larger than in other eclipsing magnetic CVs. We also report on the RXTE data as well as the long-term behavior of NGC 6814, indicating flux variability by a factor of at least 10 on time scales of years.

A possible giant planet orbiting the cataclysmic variable LX Ser

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Kai; Hu, Shaoming; Zhou, Jilin; Wu, Donghong; Guo, Difu; Jiang, Yunguo; Gao, Dongyang; Chen, Xu; Wang, Xianyu

2017-04-01

LX Ser is a deeply eclipsing cataclysmic variable with an orbital period of 0.1584325 d. 62 new eclipse times were determined by our observations and the AAVSO International Data base. Combining all available eclipse times, we analyzed the O - C behavior of LX Ser. We found that the O - C diagram of LX Ser shows a sinusoidal oscillation with a period of 22.8 yr and an amplitude of 0.00035 d. Two mechanisms (i.e., the Applegate mechanism and the light-travel time effect) are applied to explain the cyclic modulation. We found that it is difficult to apply the Applegate mechanism to explain the cyclic oscillation in the orbital period. Therefore, the cyclic period change is most likely to be caused by the light-travel time effect due to the presence of a third body. The mass of the tertiary component was determined to be M3 ∼ 7.5 MJup. We supposed that the tertiary companion is plausibly a giant planet. The stability of the giant planet was checked, and we found that the multiple system is stable.

A search for J-band variability from late-L and T brown dwarfs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clarke, F. J.; Hodgkin, S. T.; Oppenheimer, B. R.; Robertson, J.; Haubois, X.

2008-06-01

We present J-band photometric observations of eight late-L and T type brown dwarfs designed to search for variability. We detect small amplitude periodic variability from three of the objects on time-scales of several hours, probably indicating the rotation period of the objects. The other targets do not show any variability down to the level of 0.5-5 per cent This work is based on observations obtained at the European Southern Observatory, La Silla, Chile (ESO Programme 72.C-0006). E-mail: fclarke@astro.ox.ac.uk (FJC); sth@ast.cam.ac.uk (STH); bro@amnh.org (BRO); xavier.haubois@obspm.fr (XH)

Searching for X-ray variability/periodicity in HD 4004.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wessolowski, U.; Niedzielski, A.

1996-02-01

The authors present preliminary results of a combined X-ray and optical search for variability/periodicity in HD 4004 (WR 1, WN5-s), an apparently single Wolf-Rayet star known to show radial velocity variations (Lamontagne 1983) and some variability both in photometry (Moffat and Shara 1986) and in optical line profiles (Niedzielski 1995). The two ROSAT PSPC pointed observations of HD 4004 (total effective exposure time of 35 ks) do not provide significant evidence for variability in X-rays. Line profile variations present in newly obtained optical spectra are similar to those of EZ CMa (WR 6, WN5-s+c?), the banner WR+compact companion candidate.

Trend analysis of precipitation in Jharkhand State, India. Investigating precipitation variability in Jharkhand State

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chandniha, Surendra Kumar; Meshram, Sarita Gajbhiye; Adamowski, Jan Franklin; Meshram, Chandrashekhar

2017-10-01

Jharkhand is one of the eastern states of India which has an agriculture-based economy. Uncertain and erratic distribution of precipitation as well as a lack of state water resources planning is the major limitation to crop growth in the region. In this study, the spatial and temporal variability in precipitation in the state was examined using a monthly precipitation time series of 111 years (1901-2011) from 18 meteorological stations. Autocorrelation and Mann-Kendall/modified Mann-Kendall tests were utilized to detect possible trends, and the Theil and Sen slope estimator test was used to determine the magnitude of change over the entire time series. The most probable change year (change point) was detected using the Pettitt-Mann-Whitney test, and the entire time series was sub-divided into two parts: before and after the change point. Arc-Map 9.3 software was utilized to assess the spatial patterns of the trends over the entire state. Annual precipitation exhibited a decreasing trend in 5 out of 18 stations during the whole period. For annual, monsoon and winter periods of precipitation, the slope test indicated a decreasing trend for all stations during 1901-2011. The highest variability was observed in post-monsoon precipitation (77.87 %) and the lowest variability was observed in the annual series (15.76 %) over the 111 years. An increasing trend in precipitation in the state was found during the period 1901-1949, which was reversed during the subsequent period (1950-2011).

Optical photometric variable stars towards the Galactic H II region NGC 2282

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dutta, Somnath; Mondal, Soumen; Joshi, Santosh; Jose, Jessy; Das, Ramkrishna; Ghosh, Supriyo

2018-05-01

We report here CCD I-band time series photometry of a young (2-5 Myr) cluster NGC 2282, in order to identify and understand the variability of pre-main-sequence (PMS) stars. The I-band photometry, down to ˜20.5 mag, enables us to probe the variability towards the lower mass end (˜0.1 M⊙) of PMS stars. From the light curves of 1627 stars, we identified 62 new photometric variable candidates. Their association with the region was established from H α emission and infrared (IR) excess. Among 62 variables, 30 young variables exhibit H α emission, near-IR (NIR)/mid-IR (MIR) excess or both and are candidate members of the cluster. Out of 62 variables, 41 are periodic variables, with a rotation rate ranging from 0.2-7 d. The period distribution exhibits a median period at ˜1 d, as in many young clusters (e.g. NGC 2264, ONC, etc.), but it follows a unimodal distribution, unlike others that have bimodality, with slow rotators peaking at ˜6-8 d. To investigate the rotation-disc and variability-disc connection, we derived the NIR excess from Δ(I - K) and the MIR excess from Spitzer [3.6]-[4.5] μm data. No conclusive evidence of slow rotation with the presence of discs around stars and fast rotation for discless stars is obtained from our periodic variables. A clear increasing trend of the variability amplitude with IR excess is found for all variables.

Long-Term Study of Heart Rate Variability Responses to Changes in the Solar and Geomagnetic Environment.

PubMed

Alabdulgader, Abdullah; McCraty, Rollin; Atkinson, Michael; Dobyns, York; Vainoras, Alfonsas; Ragulskis, Minvydas; Stolc, Viktor

2018-02-08

This long-term study examined relationships between solar and magnetic factors and the time course and lags of autonomic nervous system (ANS) responses to changes in solar and geomagnetic activity. Heart rate variability (HRV) was recorded for 72 consecutive hours each week over a five-month period in 16 participants in order to examine ANS responses during normal background environmental periods. HRV measures were correlated with solar and geomagnetic variables using multivariate linear regression analysis with Bonferroni corrections for multiple comparisons after removing circadian influences from both datasets. Overall, the study confirms that daily ANS activity responds to changes in geomagnetic and solar activity during periods of normal undisturbed activity and it is initiated at different times after the changes in the various environmental factors and persist over varying time periods. Increase in solar wind intensity was correlated with increases in heart rate, which we interpret as a biological stress response. Increase in cosmic rays, solar radio flux, and Schumann resonance power was all associated with increased HRV and parasympathetic activity. The findings support the hypothesis that energetic environmental phenomena affect psychophysical processes that can affect people in different ways depending on their sensitivity, health status and capacity for self-regulation.

Forced and intrinsic variability in the response to increased wind stress of an idealized Southern Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, Chris; Hughes, Chris W.; Blundell, Jeffrey R.

2015-01-01

use ensemble runs of a three layer, quasi-geostrophic idealized Southern Ocean model to explore the roles of forced and intrinsic variability in response to a linear increase of wind stress imposed over a 30 year period. We find no increase of eastward circumpolar volume transport in response to the increased wind stress. A large part of the resulting time series can be explained by a response in which the eddy kinetic energy is linearly proportional to the wind stress with a possible time lag, but no statistically significant lag is found. However, this simple relationship is not the whole story: several intrinsic time scales also influence the response. We find an e-folding time scale for growth of small perturbations of 1-2 weeks. The energy budget for intrinsic variability at periods shorter than a year is dominated by exchange between kinetic and potential energy. At longer time scales, we find an intrinsic mode with period in the region of 15 years, which is dominated by changes in potential energy and frictional dissipation in a manner consistent with that seen by Hogg and Blundell (2006). A similar mode influences the response to changing wind stress. This influence, robust to perturbations, is different from the supposed linear relationship between wind stress and eddy kinetic energy, and persists for 5-10 years in this model, suggestive of a forced oscillatory mode with period of around 15 years. If present in the real ocean, such a mode would imply a degree of predictability of Southern Ocean dynamics on multiyear time scales.

A possible close supermassive black-hole binary in a quasar with optical periodicity.

PubMed

Graham, Matthew J; Djorgovski, S G; Stern, Daniel; Glikman, Eilat; Drake, Andrew J; Mahabal, Ashish A; Donalek, Ciro; Larson, Steve; Christensen, Eric

2015-02-05

Quasars have long been known to be variable sources at all wavelengths. Their optical variability is stochastic and can be due to a variety of physical mechanisms; it is also well-described statistically in terms of a damped random walk model. The recent availability of large collections of astronomical time series of flux measurements (light curves) offers new data sets for a systematic exploration of quasar variability. Here we report the detection of a strong, smooth periodic signal in the optical variability of the quasar PG 1302-102 with a mean observed period of 1,884 ± 88 days. It was identified in a search for periodic variability in a data set of light curves for 247,000 known, spectroscopically confirmed quasars with a temporal baseline of about 9 years. Although the interpretation of this phenomenon is still uncertain, the most plausible mechanisms involve a binary system of two supermassive black holes with a subparsec separation. Such systems are an expected consequence of galaxy mergers and can provide important constraints on models of galaxy formation and evolution.

Differences between measured and linearly interpolated synoptic variables over a 12-h period during AVE 4

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dupuis, L. R.; Scoggins, J. R.

1979-01-01

Results of analyses revealed that nonlinear changes or differences formed centers or systems, that were mesosynoptic in nature. These systems correlated well in space with upper level short waves, frontal zones, and radar observed convection, and were very systematic in time and space. Many of the centers of differences were well established in the vertical, extending up to the tropopause. Statistical analysis showed that on the average nonlinear changes were larger in convective areas than nonconvective regions. Errors often exceeding 100 percent were made by assuming variables to change linearly through a 12-h period in areas of thunderstorms, indicating that these nonlinear changes are important in the development of severe weather. Linear changes, however, accounted for more and more of an observed change as the time interval (within the 12-h interpolation period) increased, implying that the accuracy of linear interpolation increased over larger time intervals.

The Response of Ice Sheets to Climate Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Snow, K.; Goldberg, D. N.; Holland, P. R.; Jordan, J. R.; Arthern, R. J.; Jenkins, A.

2017-12-01

West Antarctic Ice Sheet loss is a significant contributor to sea level rise. While the ice loss is thought to be triggered by fluctuations in oceanic heat at the ice shelf bases, ice sheet response to ocean variability remains poorly understood. Using a synchronously coupled ice-ocean model permitting grounding line migration, this study evaluates the response of an ice sheet to periodic variations in ocean forcing. Resulting oscillations in grounded ice volume amplitude is shown to grow as a nonlinear function of ocean forcing period. This implies that slower oscillations in climatic forcing are disproportionately important to ice sheets. The ice shelf residence time offers a critical time scale, above which the ice response amplitude is a linear function of ocean forcing period and below which it is quadratic. These results highlight the sensitivity of West Antarctic ice streams to perturbations in heat fluxes occurring at decadal time scales.

New Variable Stars Discovered by Data Mining Images Taken during Recent Asteroid Photometric Observations. II. Results from July 2015 through December 2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papini, R.; Marchini, A.; Salvaggio, F.; Agnetti, D.; Bacci, P.; Banfi, M.; Bianciardi, G.; Collina, M.; Franco, L.; Galli, G.; Milani, M. G. A.; Lopresti, C.; Marino, G.; Rizzuti, L.; Ruocco, N.; Quadri, U.

2017-12-01

This paper follows the previous publication of new variables discovered at Astronomical Observatory, DSFTA, University of Siena, while observing asteroids in order to determine their rotational periods. Usually, this task requires time series images acquisition on a single field for as long as possible on a few nights not necessarily consecutive. Checking continually this "goldmine" allowed us to discover 57 variable stars not yet listed in catalogues or databases. While most of the new variables are eclipsing binaries, a few belong to the RR Lyrae or delta Scuti class. Since asteroid work is definitely a time-consuming activity, coordinated campaigns of follow-up with other observatories have been fundamental in order to determine the elements of the ephemeris and sometimes the right subclass of variability. Further observations of these new variables are therefore strongly encouraged in order to better characterize these stars, especially pulsating ones whose data combined with those taken during professional surveys seem to suggest the presence of light curve amplitude and period variations.

Evidence for photometric activity cycles in 3203 Kepler stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reinhold, Timo; Cameron, Robert H.; Gizon, Laurent

2017-07-01

Context. In recent years it has been claimed that the length of stellar activity cycles is determined by the stellar rotation rate. It has been observed that the cycle period increases with rotation period along two distinct sequences, known as the active and inactive sequences. In this picture the Sun occupies a solitary position between the two sequences. Whether the Sun might undergo a transitional evolutionary stage is currently under debate. Aims: Our goal is to measure cyclic variations of the stellar light curve amplitude and the rotation period using four years of Kepler data. Periodic changes in the light curve amplitude or the stellar rotation period are associated with an underlying activity cycle. Methods: Using a recent sample of active stars we compute the rotation period and the variability amplitude for each individual Kepler quarter and search for periodic variations of both time series. To test for periodicity in each stellar time series we consider Lomb-Scargle periodograms and use a selection based on a false alarm probability (FAP). Results: We detect amplitude periodicities in 3203 stars between 0.5 < Pcyc < 6 yr covering rotation periods between 1 < Prot < 40 days. Given our sample size of 23 601 stars and our selection criteria that the FAP is less than 5%, this number is almost three times higher than that expected from pure noise. We do not detect periodicities in the rotation period beyond those expected from noise. Our measurements reveal that the cycle period shows a weak dependence on rotation rate, slightly increasing for longer rotation periods. We further show that the shape of the variability deviates from a pure sine curve, consistent with observations of the solar cycle. The cycle shape does not show a statistically significant dependence on effective temperature. Conclusions: We detect activity cycles in more than 13% of our final sample with a FAP of 5% (calculated by randomly shuffling the measured 90-day variability measurements for each star). Our measurements do not support the existence of distinct sequences in the Prot-Pcyc plane, although there is some evidence for the inactive sequence for rotation periods between 5-25 days. Unfortunately, the total observing time is too short to draw sound conclusions on activity cycles with similar lengths to that of the solar cycle. A table containing all cycle periods and time series is only available in electronic form at the CDS via anonymous ftp to http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr (130.79.128.5) or via http://cdsweb.u-strasbg.fr/cgi-bin/qcat?J/A+A/603/A52

THE TAIWAN-AMERICAN OCCULTATION SURVEY PROJECT STELLAR VARIABILITY. I. DETECTION OF LOW-AMPLITUDE {delta} SCUTI STARS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kim, D.-W.; Protopapas, P.; Alcock, C.

2010-02-15

We analyzed data accumulated during 2005 and 2006 by the Taiwan-American Occultation Survey (TAOS) in order to detect short-period variable stars (periods of {approx}<1 hr) such as {delta} Scuti. TAOS is designed for the detection of stellar occultation by small-size Kuiper Belt Objects and is operating four 50 cm telescopes at an effective cadence of 5 Hz. The four telescopes simultaneously monitor the same patch of the sky in order to reduce false positives. To detect short-period variables, we used the fast Fourier transform algorithm (FFT) in as much as the data points in TAOS light curves are evenly spaced.more » Using FFT, we found 41 short-period variables with amplitudes smaller than a few hundredths of a magnitude and periods of about an hour, which suggest that they are low-amplitude {delta} Scuti stars. The light curves of TAOS {delta} Scuti stars are accessible online at the Time Series Center Web site (http://timemachine.iic.harvard.edu)« less

Period changes of 7 bright RR Lyrae variables included in the BAV standard program.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wunder, E.

1995-11-01

On the basis of 1578 times of maxima historical and present period changes of the RR Lyrae stars SW And, SW Aqr, AA Aql, X Ari, RS Boo, RR Cet and XZ Cyg are analysed. In tables the period jumps and the quadratic terms of the elements are quantified and timed; elements are given to describe the historical O-C-curves; instant elements are listed to support nowadays observations.

Multi-wavelength studies of wind driving cataclysmic variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Witherick, Dugan Kenneth

This thesis presents several case studies of disc winds from high-state cataclysmic variable stars, based on multi-wavelength time-series spectroscopy. The research presented here primarily focuses on three low-inclination, nova-like systems: RW Sextansis, V592 Cassiopeiae and BZ Camelopardalis. The aim was to derive and compare key spectral line diagnostics of the outflows, spanning a wide range of ionisation and excitation using (new) FUSE, HST, IUE and optical data. Analysis of the far-UV time-series of RW Sex reveals the wind to be highly variable but generally confined to between ~ -1000 and ~ 0 km/s for all ionisation states; no evidence of the wind at red-shifted velocities is found. This wind is modulated on the orbital period of the system and it is argued that the observed variability is due to changes in the blue-shifted absorption rather than a variable velocity emission. The Balmer profiles observed in the optical time-series of V592 Cas were found to be characterised by three components: a broad, shallow absorption trough, a narrow central emission and a blue-shifted absorption from the disc wind. The wind is also found to be modulated on the systems orbital period, although this modulation is slightly out of phase with the Balmer emission radial velocities. The wind of BZ Cam was found to behave very differently to that of RW Sex and V592 Cas. At times, it was seen (in the Balmer lines and some of the He I lines) to be extremely strong and variable but at other times is was seemingly not present; there was no evidence to suggest that it is modulated on the orbital or any other period. This study is an immense source of data on CV disc winds and importantly tries to parameterise three nova-like CVs to understand the similarities and differences between them and their winds.

Intradaily variability of water quality in a shallow tidal lagoon: Mechanisms and implications

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lucas, L.V.; Sereno, D.M.; Burau, J.R.; Schraga, T.S.; Lopez, C.B.; Stacey, M.T.; Parchevsky, K.V.; Parchevsky, V.P.

2006-01-01

Although surface water quality and its underlying processes vary over time scales ranging from seconds to decades, they have historically been studied at the lower (weekly to interannual) frequencies. The aim of this study was to investigate intradaily variability of three water quality parameters in a small freshwater tidal lagoon (Mildred Island, California). High frequency time series of specific conductivity, water temperature, and chlorophyll a at two locations within the habitat were analyzed in conjunction with supporting hydrodynamic, meteorological, biological, and spatial mapping data. All three constituents exhibited large amplitude intradaily (e.g., semidiurnal tidal and diurnal) oscillations, and periodicity varied across constituents, space, and time. Like other tidal embayments, this habitat is influenced by several processes with distinct periodicities including physical controls, such as tides, solar radiation, and wind, and biological controls, such as photosynthesis, growth, and grazing. A scaling approach was developed to estimate individual process contributions to the observed variability. Scaling results were generally consistent with observations and together with detailed examination of time series and time derivatives, revealed specific mechanisms underlying the observed periodicities, including interactions between the tidal variability, heating, wind, and biology. The implications for monitoring were illustrated through subsampling of the data set. This exercise demonstrated how quantities needed by scientists and managers (e.g., mean or extreme concentrations) may be misrepresented by low frequency data and how short-duration high frequency measurements can aid in the design and interpretation of temporally coarser sampling programs. The dispersive export of chlorophyll a from the habitat exhibited a fortnightly variability corresponding to the modulation of semidiurnal tidal currents with the diurnal cycle of phytoplankton variability, demonstrating how high frequency interactions can govern long-term trends. Process identification, as through the scaling analysis here, can help us anticipate changes in system behavior and adapt our own interactions with the system. ?? 2006 Estuarine Research Federation.

Time course of word production in fast and slow speakers: a high density ERP topographic study.

PubMed

Laganaro, Marina; Valente, Andrea; Perret, Cyril

2012-02-15

The transformation of an abstract concept into an articulated word is achieved through a series of encoding processes, which time course has been repeatedly investigated in the psycholinguistic and neuroimaging literature on single word production. The estimates of the time course issued from previous investigations represent the timing of process duration for mean processing speed: as production speed varies significantly across speakers, a crucial question is how the timing of encoding processing varies with speed. Here we investigated whether between-subjects variability in the speed of speech production is distributed along all encoding processes or if it is accounted for by a specific processing stage. We analysed event-related electroencephalographical (ERP) correlates during overt picture naming in 45 subjects divided into three speed subgroups according to their production latencies. Production speed modulated waveform amplitudes in the time window ranging from about 200 to 350 ms after picture presentation and the duration of a stable electrophysiological spatial configuration in the same time period. The remaining time windows from picture onset to 200 ms before articulation were unaffected by speed. By contrast, the manipulation of a psycholinguistic variable, word age-of-acquisition, modulated ERPs in all speed subgroups in a different and later time period, starting at around 400 ms after picture presentation, associated with phonological encoding processes. These results indicate that the between-subject variability in the speed of single word production is principally accounted for by the timing of a stable electrophysiological activity in the 200-350 ms time period, presumably associated with lexical selection. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

River-discharge variability and trends in southeastern Central Andes since 1940

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castino, Fabiana; Bookhagen, Bodo; Strecker, Manfred R.

2017-04-01

The southern Central Andes in NW Argentina comprise small to medium drainage basins (102-104 km2) particularly sensitive to climate variability. In this area and in contrast to larger drainage basins such as the Amazon or La Plata rivers, floodplains or groundwater reservoirs either do not exist or are small. This reduces their dampening effect on discharge variability. Previous studies highlighted a rapid discharge increase up to 40% in seven years in the southern Central Andes during the 1970s, inferred to have been associated with the global 1976-77 climate shift. To better understand the processes that drive variations in river discharge in this region, we analyze discharge variability on different timescales, relying on four time series of monthly discharge between 1940 and 2015. Since river discharge in this complex mountain environment results in a pronounced non-stationary and non-linear character, we apply the Hilbert-Huang Transform (HHT) to evaluate non-stationary oscillatory modes of variability and trends. An Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) analysis revealed that discharge variability in this region can be decomposed in four quasi-periodic, statistically significant oscillatory modes, associated with timescales varying from 1 to ˜20y. In addition, statistically significant long-term trends show increasing discharge during the period between 1940 and 2015, documenting an intensification of the hydrological cycle during this period. Furthermore, time-dependent intrinsic correlation (TDIC) analysis shows that discharge variability is most likely linked to the phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) at multi-decadal timescales (˜20y) and, to a lesser degree, to the Tropical South Atlantic SST anomaly (TSA) variability at shorter timescales (˜2-5y). Finally, our results suggest that the rapid discharge increased occurred during the 1970s coincides with the periodic enhancement of discharge mainly linked to the rise of the PDO oscillation from the negative to the positive phase in superposition with the long-term increasing trend, further modulated by TSA variability.

Timing of climate variability and grassland productivity

PubMed Central

Craine, Joseph M.; Nippert, Jesse B.; Elmore, Andrew J.; Skibbe, Adam M.; Hutchinson, Stacy L.; Brunsell, Nathaniel A.

2012-01-01

Future climates are forecast to include greater precipitation variability and more frequent heat waves, but the degree to which the timing of climate variability impacts ecosystems is uncertain. In a temperate, humid grassland, we examined the seasonal impacts of climate variability on 27 y of grass productivity. Drought and high-intensity precipitation reduced grass productivity only during a 110-d period, whereas high temperatures reduced productivity only during 25 d in July. The effects of drought and heat waves declined over the season and had no detectable impact on grass productivity in August. If these patterns are general across ecosystems, predictions of ecosystem response to climate change will have to account not only for the magnitude of climate variability but also for its timing. PMID:22331914

Time and space variability of spectral estimates of atmospheric pressure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Canavero, Flavio G.; Einaudi, Franco

1987-01-01

The temporal and spatial behaviors of atmospheric pressure spectra over the northern Italy and the Alpine massif were analyzed using data on surface pressure measurements carried out at two microbarograph stations in the Po Valley, one 50 km south of the Alps, the other in the foothills of the Dolomites. The first 15 days of the study overlapped with the Alpex Intensive Observation Period. The pressure records were found to be intrinsically nonstationary and were found to display substantial time variability, implying that the statistical moments depend on time. The shape and the energy content of spectra depended on different time segments. In addition, important differences existed between spectra obtained at the two stations, indicating a substantial effect of topography, particularly for periods less than 40 min.

Spatial and temporal variability of lightings over Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nastos, P. T.; Matsangouras, J. T.

2010-09-01

Lightings are the most powerful and spectacular natural phenomena in the lower atmosphere, being a major cause of storm related deaths. Cloud-to-ground lightning can kill and injure people by direct or indirect means. Lightning affects the many electrochemical systems in the body causing nerve damage, memory loss, personality change, and emotional problems. Besides, among the various nitrogen oxides sources, the contribution from lightning likely represents the largest uncertainty. In this study, the spatial and temporal variability of recorded lightings over Greece during the period from January 1, 2008 to December 31, 2009, were analyzed. The data for retrieving the location and time-of-occurrence of lightning were acquired from Hellenic National Meteorological Service (HNMS) archive dataset. An operational lighting detector network was established in 2007 by HNMS consisted of eight time-of-arrival sensors (TOA), spatially distributed across Greek territory. The spatial variability of lightings revealed their incidence within specific geographical sub-regions while the temporal variability concerning the seasonal, monthly and daily distributions resulted in better understanding of the time of lightings’ occurrence. All the analyses were carried out with respect to cloud to cloud, cloud to ground and ground to cloud lightings, within the examined time period.

Balancing out dwelling and moving: optimal sensorimotor synchronization

PubMed Central

Girard, Benoît; Guigon, Emmanuel

2015-01-01

Sensorimotor synchronization is a fundamental skill involved in the performance of many artistic activities (e.g., music, dance). After a century of research, the manner in which the nervous system produces synchronized movements remains poorly understood. Typical rhythmic movements involve a motion and a motionless phase (dwell). The dwell phase represents a sizable fraction of the rhythm period, and scales with it. The rationale for this organization remains unexplained and is the object of this study. Twelve participants, four drummers (D) and eight nondrummers (ND), performed tapping movements paced at 0.5–2.5 Hz by a metronome. The participants organized their tapping behavior into dwell and movement phases according to two strategies: 1) Eight participants (1 D, 7 ND) maintained an almost constant ratio of movement time (MT) and dwell time (DT) irrespective of the metronome period. 2) Four participants increased the proportion of DT as the period increased. The temporal variabilities of both the dwell and movement phases were consistent with Weber's law, i.e., their variability increased with their durations, and the longest phase always exhibited the smallest variability. We developed an optimal statistical model that formalized the distribution of time into dwell and movement intervals as a function of their temporal variability. The model accurately predicted the participants' dwell and movement durations irrespective of their strategy and musical skill, strongly suggesting that the distribution of DT and MT results from an optimization process, dependent on each participant's skill to predict time during rest and movement. PMID:25878154

Long term variability of the annual hydrological regime and sensitivity to temperature phase shifts in Saxony/Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Renner, M.; Bernhofer, C.

2011-01-01

The timing of the seasons strongly effects ecosystems and human activities. Recently, there is increasing evidence of changes in the timing of the seasons, such as earlier spring seasons detected in phenological records, advanced seasonal timing of surface temperature, earlier snow melt or streamflow timing. For water resources management there is a need to quantitatively describe the variability in the timing of hydrological regimes and to understand how climatic changes control the seasonal water budget of river basins on the regional scale. In this study, changes of the annual cycle of hydrological variables are analysed for 27 river basins in Saxony/Germany. Thereby monthly series of basin runoff ratios, the ratio of runoff and basin precipitation are investigated for changes and variability of their annual periodicity over the period 1930-2009. Approximating the annual cycle by the means of harmonic functions gave acceptable results, while only two parameters, phase and amplitude, are required. It has been found that the annual phase of runoff ratio, representing the timing of the hydrological regime, is subject to considerable year-to-year variability, being concurrent with basins in similar hydro-climatic conditions. Two distinct basin classes have been identified, whereby basin elevation has been found to be the delimiting factor. An increasing importance of snow on the basin water balance with elevation is apparent and mainly governs the temporal variability of the annual timing of hydrological regimes. Further there is evidence of coincident changes in trend direction (change points in 1971 and 1988) in snow melt influenced basins. In these basins the timing of the runoff ratio is significantly correlated with the timing of temperature, and effects on runoff by temperature phase changes are even amplified. Interestingly, temperature effects may explain the low frequent variability of the second change point until today. However, the first change point can not be explained by temperature alone and other causes have to be considered.

A New Catalog of Variable Stars in the Field of the Open Cluster M37

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, S.-W.; Byun, Y.-I.; Hartman, J. D.

2015-07-01

We present a comprehensive re-analysis of stellar photometric variability in the field of the open cluster M37 following the application of a new photometry and de-trending method to the MMT/Megacam image archive. This new analysis allows a rare opportunity to explore photometric variability over a broad range of timescales, from minutes to a month. The intent of this work is to examine the entire sample of more than 30,000 objects for periodic, aperiodic, and sporadic behaviors in their light curves. We show a modified version of the fast χ2 periodogram algorithm (Fχ2) and change-point analysis as tools for detecting and assessing the significance of periodic and non-periodic variations. The benefits of our new photometry and analysis methods are evident. A total of 2,306 stars exhibit convincing variations that are induced by flares, pulsations, eclipses, starspots, and unknown causes in some cases. This represents a 60% increase in the number of variables known in this field. Moreover, 30 of the previously identified variables are found to be false positives resulting from time-dependent systematic effects. The new catalog includes 61 eclipsing binary systems, 92 multiperiodic variable stars, 132 aperiodic variables, and 436 flare stars, as well as several hundreds of rotating variables. Based on extended and improved catalog of variables, we investigate the basic properties (e.g., period, amplitude, type) of all variables. The catalog can be accessed through the web interface (http://stardb.yonsei.ac.kr/).

Regression Analysis of Stage Variability for West-Central Florida Lakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sacks, Laura A.; Ellison, Donald L.; Swancar, Amy

2008-01-01

The variability in a lake's stage depends upon many factors, including surface-water flows, meteorological conditions, and hydrogeologic characteristics near the lake. An understanding of the factors controlling lake-stage variability for a population of lakes may be helpful to water managers who set regulatory levels for lakes. The goal of this study is to determine whether lake-stage variability can be predicted using multiple linear regression and readily available lake and basin characteristics defined for each lake. Regressions were evaluated for a recent 10-year period (1996-2005) and for a historical 10-year period (1954-63). Ground-water pumping is considered to have affected stage at many of the 98 lakes included in the recent period analysis, and not to have affected stage at the 20 lakes included in the historical period analysis. For the recent period, regression models had coefficients of determination (R2) values ranging from 0.60 to 0.74, and up to five explanatory variables. Standard errors ranged from 21 to 37 percent of the average stage variability. Net leakage was the most important explanatory variable in regressions describing the full range and low range in stage variability for the recent period. The most important explanatory variable in the model predicting the high range in stage variability was the height over median lake stage at which surface-water outflow would occur. Other explanatory variables in final regression models for the recent period included the range in annual rainfall for the period and several variables related to local and regional hydrogeology: (1) ground-water pumping within 1 mile of each lake, (2) the amount of ground-water inflow (by category), (3) the head gradient between the lake and the Upper Floridan aquifer, and (4) the thickness of the intermediate confining unit. Many of the variables in final regression models are related to hydrogeologic characteristics, underscoring the importance of ground-water exchange in controlling the stage of karst lakes in Florida. Regression equations were used to predict lake-stage variability for the recent period for 12 additional lakes, and the median difference between predicted and observed values ranged from 11 to 23 percent. Coefficients of determination for the historical period were considerably lower (maximum R2 of 0.28) than for the recent period. Reasons for these low R2 values are probably related to the small number of lakes (20) with stage data for an equivalent time period that were unaffected by ground-water pumping, the similarity of many of the lake types (large surface-water drainage lakes), and the greater uncertainty in defining historical basin characteristics. The lack of lake-stage data unaffected by ground-water pumping and the poor regression results obtained for that group of lakes limit the ability to predict natural lake-stage variability using this method in west-central Florida.

ENSO related variability in the Southern Hemisphere, 1948-2000

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ribera, Pedro; Mann, Michael E.

2003-01-01

The spatiotemporal evolution of Southern Hemisphere climate variability is diagnosed based on the use of the NCEP reanalysis (1948-2000) dataset. Using the MTM-SVD analysis method, significant narrowband variability is isolated from the multi-variate dataset. It is found that the ENSO signal exhibits statistically significant behavior at quasiquadrennial (3-6 yr) timescales for the full time-period. A significant quasibiennial (2-3 yr) timescales emerges only for the latter half of period. Analyses of the spatial evolution of the two reconstructed signals shed additional light on linkages between low and high-latitude Southern Hemisphere climate anomalies.

The Influence of Time Attitudes on Alcohol-Related Attitudes, Behaviors and Subjective Life Expectancy in Early Adolescence: A Longitudinal Examination Using Mover-Stayer Latent Transition Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wells, Kevin Eugene; Morgan, Grant; Worrell, Frank C.; Sumnall, Harry; McKay, Michael Thomas

2018-01-01

The goal of the present study is to examine the stability of time attitudes profiles across a one-year period as well as the association between time attitudes profiles and several variables. These variables include attitudes towards alcohol, context of alcohol use, consumption of a full drink, and subjective life expectancy. We assessed the…

Refractory periods and climate forcing in cholera dynamics.

PubMed

Koelle, Katia; Rodó, Xavier; Pascual, Mercedes; Yunus, Md; Mostafa, Golam

2005-08-04

Outbreaks of many infectious diseases, including cholera, malaria and dengue, vary over characteristic periods longer than 1 year. Evidence that climate variability drives these interannual cycles has been highly controversial, chiefly because it is difficult to isolate the contribution of environmental forcing while taking into account nonlinear epidemiological dynamics generated by mechanisms such as host immunity. Here we show that a critical interplay of environmental forcing, specifically climate variability, and temporary immunity explains the interannual disease cycles present in a four-decade cholera time series from Matlab, Bangladesh. We reconstruct the transmission rate, the key epidemiological parameter affected by extrinsic forcing, over time for the predominant strain (El Tor) with a nonlinear population model that permits a contributing effect of intrinsic immunity. Transmission shows clear interannual variability with a strong correspondence to climate patterns at long periods (over 7 years, for monsoon rains and Brahmaputra river discharge) and at shorter periods (under 7 years, for flood extent in Bangladesh, sea surface temperatures in the Bay of Bengal and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation). The importance of the interplay between extrinsic and intrinsic factors in determining disease dynamics is illustrated during refractory periods, when population susceptibility levels are low as the result of immunity and the size of cholera outbreaks only weakly reflects climate forcing.

Complexity quantification of cardiac variability time series using improved sample entropy (I-SampEn).

PubMed

Marwaha, Puneeta; Sunkaria, Ramesh Kumar

2016-09-01

The sample entropy (SampEn) has been widely used to quantify the complexity of RR-interval time series. It is a fact that higher complexity, and hence, entropy is associated with the RR-interval time series of healthy subjects. But, SampEn suffers from the disadvantage that it assigns higher entropy to the randomized surrogate time series as well as to certain pathological time series, which is a misleading observation. This wrong estimation of the complexity of a time series may be due to the fact that the existing SampEn technique updates the threshold value as a function of long-term standard deviation (SD) of a time series. However, time series of certain pathologies exhibits substantial variability in beat-to-beat fluctuations. So the SD of the first order difference (short term SD) of the time series should be considered while updating threshold value, to account for period-to-period variations inherited in a time series. In the present work, improved sample entropy (I-SampEn), a new methodology has been proposed in which threshold value is updated by considering the period-to-period variations of a time series. The I-SampEn technique results in assigning higher entropy value to age-matched healthy subjects than patients suffering atrial fibrillation (AF) and diabetes mellitus (DM). Our results are in agreement with the theory of reduction in complexity of RR-interval time series in patients suffering from chronic cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular diseases.

Queue position in the endoscopic schedule impacts effectiveness of colonoscopy.

PubMed

Lee, Alexander; Iskander, John M; Gupta, Nitin; Borg, Brian B; Zuckerman, Gary; Banerjee, Bhaskar; Gyawali, C Prakash

2011-08-01

Endoscopist fatigue potentially impacts colonoscopy. Fatigue is difficult to quantitate, but polyp detection rates between non-fatigued and fatigued time periods could represent a surrogate marker. We assessed whether timing variables impacted polyp detection rates at a busy tertiary care endoscopy suite. Consecutive patients undergoing colonoscopy were retrospectively identified. Indications, clinical demographics, pre-procedural, and procedural variables were extracted from chart review; colonoscopy findings were determined from the procedure reports. Three separate timing variables were assessed as surrogate markers for endoscopist fatigue: morning vs. afternoon procedures, start times throughout the day, and queue position, a unique variable that takes into account the number of procedures performed before the colonoscopy of interest. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to determine whether timing variables and other clinical, pre-procedural, and procedural variables predicted polyp detection. During the 4-month study period, 1,083 outpatient colonoscopy procedures (57.5±0.5 years, 59.5% female) were identified, performed by 28 endoscopists (mean 38.7 procedures/endoscopist), with a mean polyp detection rate of 0.851/colonoscopy. At least, one adenoma was detected in 297 procedures (27.4%). A 12.4% reduction in mean detected polyps was detected between morning and afternoon procedures (0.90±0.06 vs. 0.76±0.06, P=0.15). Using start time on a continuous scale, however, each elapsed hour in the day was associated with a 4.6% reduction in polyp detection (P=0.005). When queue position was assessed, a 5.4% reduction in polyp detection was noted with each increase in queue position (P=0.016). These results remained significant when controlled for each individual endoscopist. Polyp detection rates decline as time passes during an endoscopist's schedule, potentially from endoscopist fatigue. Queue position may be a novel surrogate measure for operator fatigue.

Identification of independent storm events: Seasonal and spatial variability of times between storms in Alpine area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iadanzaa, Carla; Rianna, Maura; Orlando, Dario; Ubertini, Lucio; Napolitano, Francesco

2013-10-01

The aim of the paper is the identification of rain events that trigger landslides through the use of an exponential method to separate stochastic independent events. This activity is carried out within the definition of empirical rainfall thresholds for debris flows and shallow landslides. The study area is the Trento district, which is located in the northeast zone of an Alpine area. The work evaluates the factors that affect the variability in space and time of the critical duration of each rain gauge, defined as the minimum dry period duration that separates two rainy periods that are stochastically independent.

M Dwarf Variability and Periodicities in Praesepe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamper, R.; Honeycutt, R. K.

2018-02-01

212 M dwarfs in the Praesepe cluster have been monitored photometrically for three observing seasons. It is found that Praesepe M dwarfs earlier than ∼M4 often have significant photometric variations, while variability is not detected for >M4. Time series analysis was performed on 147 of the targets having likely variability in order to study possible periodicities. For 83% of these targets, we detected no periodicities; these null results included targets with published photometric periods from earlier work. Our detected periods ranged from 20 to 45 days, and we are not able to confirm any of the 1–5 day periods in Praesepe periods reported by Schultz et al., which we attribute to the very different observing cadences of the two studies. We conjecture that our more widely spaced data cannot adequately sample the Schultz et al. periodicities before the growth and decay of spots have a chance to ruin the coherence. The new periods we find in the range 20–45 days (in targets that do not overlap with those from Schultz having shorter periods) have very small false alarm probabilities. We argue that rotation is unlikely to be responsible for these 20–45 day periods. Perhaps short activity cycles in the Praesepe M dwarfs play a role in generating such periodicities.

Social Cognitive Theory Predictors of Exercise Behavior in Endometrial Cancer Survivors

PubMed Central

Basen-Engquist, Karen; Carmack, Cindy L.; Li, Yisheng; Brown, Jubilee; Jhingran, Anuja; Hughes, Daniel C.; Perkins, Heidi Y.; Scruggs, Stacie; Harrison, Carol; Baum, George; Bodurka, Diane C.; Waters, Andrew

2014-01-01

Objective This study evaluated whether social cognitive theory (SCT) variables, as measured by questionnaire and ecological momentary assessment (EMA), predicted exercise in endometrial cancer survivors. Methods One hundred post-treatment endometrial cancer survivors received a 6-month home-based exercise intervention. EMAs were conducted using hand-held computers for 10- to 12-day periods every 2 months. Participants rated morning self-efficacy and positive and negative outcome expectations using the computer, recorded exercise information in real time and at night, and wore accelerometers. At the midpoint of each assessment period participants completed SCT questionnaires. Using linear mixed-effects models, we tested whether morning SCT variables predicted minutes of exercise that day (Question 1) and whether exercise minutes at time point Tj could be predicted by questionnaire measures of SCT variables from time point Tj-1 (Question 2). Results Morning self-efficacy significantly predicted that day’s exercise minutes (p<.0001). Morning positive outcome expectations was also associated with exercise minutes (p=0.0003), but the relationship was attenuated when self-efficacy was included in the model (p=0.4032). Morning negative outcome expectations was not associated with exercise minutes. Of the questionnaire measures of SCT variables, only exercise self-efficacy predicted exercise at the next time point (p=0.003). Conclusions The consistency of the relationship between self-efficacy and exercise minutes over short (same day) and longer (Tj to Tj-1) time periods provides support for a causal relationship. The strength of the relationship between morning self-efficacy and exercise minutes suggest that real-time interventions that target daily variation in self-efficacy may benefit endometrial cancer survivors’ exercise adherence. PMID:23437853

Assessing the catchment's filtering effect on the propagation of meteorological anomalies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

di Domenico, Antonella; Laguardia, Giovanni; Margiotta, Maria Rosaria

2010-05-01

The characteristics of drought propagation within a catchment are evaluated by means of the analysis of time series of water fluxes and storages' states. The study area is the Agri basin, Southern Italy, closed at the Tarangelo gauging station (507 km2). Once calibrated the IRP weather generator (Veneziano and Iacobellis, 2002) on observed data, a 100 years time series of precipitation has been produced. The drought statistics obtained from the synthetic data have been compared to the ones obtained from the limited observations available. The DREAM hydrological model has been calibrated based on observed precipitation and discharge. From the model run on the synthetic precipitation we have obtained the time series of variables relevant for assessing the status of the catchment, namely total runoff and its components, actual evapotranspiration, and soil moisture. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI; McKee et al., 1993) has been calculated for different averaging periods. The modelled data have been processed for the calculation of drought indices. In particular, we have chosen to use their transformation into standardized variables. We have performed autocorrelation analysis for assessing the characteristic time scales of the variables. Moreover, we have investigated through cross correlation their relationships, assessing also the SPI averaging period for which the maximum correlation is reached. The variables' drought statistics, namely number of events, duration, and deficit volumes, have been assessed. As a result of the filtering effect exerted by the different catchment storages, the characteristic time scale and the maximum correlation SPI averaging periods for the different time series tend to increase. Thus, the number of drought events tends to decrease and their duration to increase under increasing storage.

The millimagnitude variability of the HgMn star φ Phe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prvák, M.; Krtička, J.; Korhonen, H.

2018-01-01

The horizontally inhomogeneous chemical composition of the atmospheres of the chemically peculiar stars causes wavelength redistribution of the spectral energy in areas with increased abundance of heavier elements. Due to the rotation of the star, this usually leads to strictly periodic photometric variability in some spectral regions. We used abundance maps of the HgMn star φ Phe (HD 11753), obtained by means of the Doppler imaging, to model its photometric variability. Comparing the light curves derived from abundance maps obtained at different times, we also study how the time evolution of the surface spots affects this variability.

VARIABLE AND POLARIZED RADIO EMISSION FROM THE T6 BROWN DWARF WISEP J112254.73+255021.5

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Williams, P. K. G.; Berger, E.; Gizis, J. E., E-mail: pwilliams@cfa.harvard.edu

2017-01-10

Route and Wolszczan recently detected five radio bursts from the T6 dwarf WISEP J112254.73+255021.5 and used the timing of these events to propose that this object rotates with an ultra-short period of ∼17.3 minutes. We conducted follow-up observations with the Very Large Array and Gemini-North but found no evidence for this periodicity. We do, however, observe variable, highly circularly polarized radio emission. Assuming that the radio emission of this T dwarf is periodically variable on ∼hour timescales, like other radio-active ultracool dwarfs, we infer a likely period of 116 minutes. However, our observation lasted only 162 minutes and so more data are needed to test thismore » hypothesis. The handedness of the circular polarization switches twice and there is no evidence for any unpolarized emission component, the first time such a phenomenology has been observed in radio studies of very low-mass stars and brown dwarfs. We suggest that the object’s magnetic dipole axis may be highly misaligned relative to its rotation axis.« less

Starspots on WASP-107 and pulsations of WASP-118

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Močnik, T.; Hellier, C.; Anderson, D. R.; Clark, B. J. M.; Southworth, J.

2017-08-01

By analysing the K2 short-cadence photometry, we detect starspot occultation events in the light curve of WASP-107, the host star of a warm-Saturn exoplanet. WASP-107 also shows a rotational modulation with a period of 17.5 ± 1.4 d. Given that the rotational period is nearly three times the planet's orbital period, one would expect in an aligned system to see starspot occultation events to recur every three transits. The absence of such occultation recurrences suggests a misaligned orbit unless the starspots' lifetimes are shorter than the star's rotational period. We also find stellar variability resembling γ Doradus pulsations in the light curve of WASP-118, which hosts an inflated hot Jupiter. The variability is multiperiodic with a variable semi-amplitude of ˜200 ppm. In addition to these findings, we use the K2 data to refine the parameters of both systems and report non-detections of transit-timing variations, secondary eclipses and any additional transiting planets. We used the upper limits on the secondary-eclipse depths to estimate upper limits on the planetary geometric albedos of 0.7 for WASP-107b and 0.2 for WASP-118b.

Variability modifies life satisfaction's association with mortality risk in older adults

PubMed Central

Boehm, Julia K.; Winning, Ashley; Segerstrom, Suzanne; Kubzansky, Laura D.

2015-01-01

Life satisfaction is associated with greater longevity, but its variability across time has not been examined relative to longevity. We investigated whether mean levels of life satisfaction across time, variability in life satisfaction across time, and their interaction were associated with mortality over 9 years of follow-up. Participants were 4,458 Australians initially ≥50 years old. During the follow-up, 546 people died. Adjusting for age, greater mean life satisfaction was associated with reduced risk and greater variability in life satisfaction was associated with increased risk of mortality. These findings were qualified by a significant interaction such that individuals with low mean satisfaction and high variability in satisfaction had the greatest risk of mortality over the follow-up period. In combination with mean levels of life satisfaction, variability in life satisfaction is relevant for mortality risk among older adults. Considering intraindividual variability provides additional insight into associations between psychological characteristics and health. PMID:26048888

Quasi-Periodic Pulse Amplitude Modulation in the Accreting Millisecond Pulsar IGR J00291+5934

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bult, Peter; van Doesburgh, Marieke; van der Klis, Michiel

2017-01-01

We introduce a new method for analyzing the a periodic variability of coherent pulsations in accreting millisecond X-ray pulsars (AMXPs). Our method involves applying a complex frequency correction to the time-domain lightcurve, allowing for the aperiodic modulation of the pulse amplitude to be robustly extracted in the frequency domain. We discuss the statistical properties of the resulting modulation spectrum and show how it can be correlated with the non-pulsed emission to determine if the periodic and a periodic variability are coupled processes. Using this method, we study the 598.88 Hz coherent pulsations of the AMXP IGR J00291+5934 as observed with the Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer and XMM-Newton. We demonstrate that our method easily confirms the known coupling between the pulsations and a strong 8 mHz quasi-periodic oscillation (QPO) in XMM-Newton observations. Applying our method to the RXTE observations, we further show, for the first time, that the much weaker 20 mHz QPO and its harmonic are also coupled with the pulsations. We discuss the implications of this coupling and indicate how it may be used to extract new information on the underlying accretion process.

Long-Term Prediction of the Arctic Ionospheric TEC Based on Time-Varying Periodograms

PubMed Central

Liu, Jingbin; Chen, Ruizhi; Wang, Zemin; An, Jiachun; Hyyppä, Juha

2014-01-01

Knowledge of the polar ionospheric total electron content (TEC) and its future variations is of scientific and engineering relevance. In this study, a new method is developed to predict Arctic mean TEC on the scale of a solar cycle using previous data covering 14 years. The Arctic TEC is derived from global positioning system measurements using the spherical cap harmonic analysis mapping method. The study indicates that the variability of the Arctic TEC results in highly time-varying periodograms, which are utilized for prediction in the proposed method. The TEC time series is divided into two components of periodic oscillations and the average TEC. The newly developed method of TEC prediction is based on an extrapolation method that requires no input of physical observations of the time interval of prediction, and it is performed in both temporally backward and forward directions by summing the extrapolation of the two components. The backward prediction indicates that the Arctic TEC variability includes a 9 years period for the study duration, in addition to the well-established periods. The long-term prediction has an uncertainty of 4.8–5.6 TECU for different period sets. PMID:25369066

Period changes of cataclysmic variables below the period gap: V2051 Oph, OY Car and Z Cha

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pilarčík, L.; Wolf, M.; Zasche, P.; Vraštil, J.

2018-04-01

We present our results of a long-term monitoring of cataclysmic variable stars (CVs). About 40 new eclipses were measured for the three southern SU UMa-type eclipsing CVs: V2051 Oph, OY Car and Z Cha. Based on the current O - C diagrams we confirmed earlier findings that V2051 Oph and OY Car present cyclic changes of their orbital periods lasting 25 and 29 years, respectively. In case of Z Cha we propose the light-time effect caused probably by a presence of the third component orbiting the eclipsing CV with the period of 43.5 years. The minimal mass of this companion results about 15 MJup.

Evolution of starspots in the long-period RS CVN binary V1817 Cygni = HR 7428

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hall, Douglas S.; Gessner, Susan E.; Lines, Helen C.; Lines, Richard D.

1990-01-01

Photometry between 1982 and 1989, published and unpublished, is analyzed. The ellipticity effect produces variability with a full amplitude of 0.033 m in V. A recent time of light minimum (JD 2445988.0 + or - 0.3 d) combined with an old spectroscopic time of conjunction from the 1920's yields a much improved orbital period (108.854 + or - 0.003). Removal of the ellipticity effect reveals starspot variability. Four different spots were observed at various times, two of them present simultaneously in the light curve during 1985. Mean spot lifetimes were around 2 years and the largest amplitude attributed to starspots was 0.04 m in V during 1986. Derived rotation periods for two spots were 5.3 + or - 1.2 percent slower than synchronous and 3.0 + or - 0.4 percent faster. The differential rotation coefficient for the K2 giant is k = 0.25 + or - 0.04, compared to k = 0.186 for the sun. V1817 Cygni has the longest orbital period of any binary known to execute synchronous rotation.

Studies of the Long Secondary Periods in Pulsating Red Giants. II. Lower-Luminosity Stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Percy, J. R.; Leung, H. W.

2017-06-01

We have used AAVSO visual and photoelectric V data, and the AAVSO time-series package VSTAR and the Lomb-Scargle time-series algorithm to determine improved pulsation periods, "long secondary periods" (LSPs), and their amplitudes in 51 shorter-period pulsating red giants in the AAVSO photoelectric photometry program, and in the AAVSO long-period variable (LPV) binocular program. As is well known, radial pulsation becomes detectable in red giants at about spectral type M0, with periods of about 20 days. We find that the LSP phenomenon is also first detectable at about M0. Pulsation and LSP amplitudes increase from near zero to about 0.1 at pulsation periods of 100 days. At longer periods, the pulsation amplitudes continue to increase, but the LSP amplitudes are generally between 0.1 and 0.2 on average. The ratios of LSP to pulsation period cluster around 5 and 10, presumably depending on whether the pulsation period is the fundamental or first overtone. The pulsation and LSP phase curves are generally close to sinusoidal, except when the amplitude is small, in which case they may be distorted by observational scatter or, in the case of the LSP amplitude, by the pulsational variability. As with longer-period stars, the LSP amplitude i ncreases and decreases by a factor of two or more, for unknown reasons, on a time scale of about 20 LSPs. The LSP phenomenon is thus present and similar in radially pulsating red giants of all periods. Its cause remains unknown.

Seasonal controls of the short term variability of pCO2 at the Scotian Shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, H.; Craig, S.; Greenan, B. J. W.; Burt, W.; Herndl, G. J.; Higginson, S.; Salt, L.; Shadwick, E. H.; Urrego-Blanco, J.

2012-04-01

Much of the surface ocean carbon cycle variability can be attributed to the availability of sunlight, through processes such as heat fluxes or photosynthesis, which regulate the ocean carbon cycle over a wide range of time scales. The critical processes occurring on timescales of a day or less, however, have undergone few investigations, and most of those have been limited to a time span of several days to months, or exceptionally, for longer periods. Optical methods have helped to infer short-term biological variability, however lacking corresponding investigations of oceanic CO2 system. Here, we employ high-frequency CO2 system and optical observations covering the full seasonal cycle on the Scotian Shelf, Northwestern Atlantic Ocean, in order to unravel daily periodicity of the surface ocean carbon cycle and its effects on annual budgets. We show that significant daily periodicity occurs only if the water column is sufficiently stable as observed during seasonal warming. During that time biological CO2 drawdown, or net community production (NCP), is delayed for several hours relative to the daylight cycle due the daily build-up of essential Chlorophyll a, to cell physiology and to grazing effects, all restricting or hindering photosynthesis in the early morning hours. NCP collapses in summer by more than 90%, when the mixed layer depth reaches the seasonal minimum, which eventually makes the observed daily periodicity of the CO2 system vanish.

Patterns of Change in Psychological Variables Leading up to Competition in Superior Versus Inferior Performers.

PubMed

Boat, Ruth; Taylor, Ian M

2015-06-01

The study explored patterns of change in a number of potentially performance-related variables (i.e., fatigue, social support, self-efficacy, autonomous motivation, mental skills) during the lead-up to a competitive triathlon, and whether these patterns of change differed for relatively superior versus inferior performers. Forty-two triathletes completed an inventory measuring the study variables every other day during a 2-week period leading up to competition. Performance was assessed using participants' race time, and using a self-referenced relative score compared with personal best times. Multilevel growth curve analyses revealed significant differences in growth trajectories over the 2-week period in mental skills use, social support, and fatigue. The results provide novel insight into how athletes' fluctuating psychological state in the 2 weeks before competition may be crucial in determining performance.

Descriptors of natural thermal regimes in streams and their responsiveness to change in the Pacific Northwest of North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Arismendi, Ivan; Johnson, Sherri L.; Dunham, Jason B.; Haggerty, Roy

2013-01-01

1. Temperature is a major driver of ecological processes in stream ecosystems, yet the dynamics of thermal regimes remain poorly described. Most work has focused on relatively simple descriptors that fail to capture the full range of conditions that characterise thermal regimes of streams across seasons or throughout the year. 2. To more completely describe thermal regimes, we developed several descriptors of magnitude, variability, frequency, duration and timing of thermal events throughout a year. We evaluated how these descriptors change over time using long-term (1979–2009), continuous temperature data from five relatively undisturbed cold-water streams in western Oregon, U.S.A. In addition to trends for each descriptor, we evaluated similarities among them, as well as patterns of spatial coherence, and temporal synchrony. 3. Using different groups of descriptors, we were able to more fully capture distinct aspects of the full range of variability in thermal regimes across space and time. A subset of descriptors showed both higher coherence and synchrony and, thus, an appropriate level of responsiveness to examine evidence of regional climatic influences on thermal regimes. Most notably, daily minimum values during winter–spring were the most responsive descriptors to potential climatic influences. 4. Overall, thermal regimes in streams we studied showed high frequency and low variability of cold temperatures during the cold-water period in winter and spring, and high frequency and high variability of warm temperatures during the warm-water period in summer and autumn. The cold and warm periods differed in the distribution of events with a higher frequency and longer duration of warm events in summer than cold events in winter. The cold period exhibited lower variability in the duration of events, but showed more variability in timing. 5. In conclusion, our results highlight the importance of a year-round perspective in identifying the most responsive characteristics or descriptors of thermal regimes in streams. The descriptors we provide herein can be applied across hydro-ecological regions to evaluate spatial and temporal patterns in thermal regimes. Evaluation of coherence and synchrony of different components of thermal regimes can facilitate identification of impacts of regional climate variability or local human or natural influences.

Associating Long-term Gamma-ray Variability with the Superorbital Period of LS I + 61 Deg. 303

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ackermann, M.; Ajello, M.; Ballet, J.; Barbiellini, G.; Bastieri, D.; Bellazzini, R.; Bonamente, E.; Brandt, T. J.; Bregeon, J.; Brigida, M.;

The System of Secondary Periodicities and Resonances Based on β Lyrae Magnetic Field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skulsky, M. Yu.

Original integral interconsistent and interconnected magnetohydrodynamical system of periodicities and resonances over their long-time variabilities is developed. The study is based upon three different observed secondary periods in β Lyrae system and taking into account geometrical features of the nonstandard magnetic field in a losing star, as well as due to the asynchronizm of the orbital and rotational periods.

Uncovering the Anthropogenic Sea Level Change using an Improved Sea Level Reconstruction for the Indian Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, P.; Hamlington, B.; Thompson, P. R.; Han, W.

2016-12-01

Despite having some of the world's most densely populated and vulnerable coastal regions, sea level (SL) variability in the Indian Ocean (IO) has received considerably less attention than the Pacific Ocean. Differentiating the internal variability from the long-term trend in global mean sea level (GMSL) at decadal time-scales is vital for planning and mitigation efforts in the IO region. Understanding the dynamics of internal and anthropogenic SL change is essential for understanding the dynamic pathways that link the IO basin to terrestrial climates world-wide. With a sparse pre-satellite observational record of the IO, the Indo-Pacific internal climate variability is difficult to represent accurately. However, an improved representation of pre-satellite SL variability can be achieved by using a multivariate reconstruction technique. By using cyclostationary empirical orthogonal functions (CSEOFs) that can capture time-varying spatial patterns, gaps in the historical record when observations are sparse are filled using spatial relationships from time periods when the observational network is dense. This reconstruction method combines SL data and sea surface temperature (SST) to create a SL reconstruction that spans a period from 1900 to present, long enough to study climate signals over interannual to decadal time scales. This study aims at estimating the component of SL rise that relates to anthropogenic forcing by identifying and removing the fraction related to internal variability. An improved understanding of how the internal climate variability can affect the IO SL trend and variability, will provide an insight into the future SL changes. It is also important to study links between SL and climate variability in the past to understand how SL will respond to similar climatic events in the future and if this response will be influenced by the changing climate.

47 CFR 80.213 - Modulation requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... transmission period of 60 seconds followed by a minimum quiescent period four times the duration of the... designed to reduce interference caused by triggering from radar antenna sidelobes. (i) Variable frequency... using frequency agile techniques must include circuitry designed to reduce interference caused by...

Measurement and modeling of diel variability of polybrominated diphenyl ethers and chlordanes in air.

PubMed

Moeckel, Claudia; Macleod, Matthew; Hungerbühler, Konrad; Jones, Kevin C

2008-05-01

Short-term variability of concentrations of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and chlordanes in air at a semirural site in England over a 5 day period is reported. Four-hour air samples were collected during a period dominated by a high pressure system that produced stable diel (24-h) patterns of meteorological conditions such as temperature and atmospheric boundary layer height. PBDE and chlordane concentrations showed clear diel variability with concentrations in the afternoon and evening being 1.9 - 2.7 times higher than in the early morning. The measurements are interpreted using a multimedia mass balance model parametrized with forcing functions representing local temperature, atmospheric boundary layer height, wind speed and hydroxyl radical concentrations. Model results indicate that reversible, temperature-controlled air-surface exchange is the primary driver of the diel concentration pattern observed for chlordanes and PBDE 28. For higher brominated PBDE congeners (47, 99 and 100), the effect of variable atmospheric mixing height in combination with irreversible deposition on aerosol particles is dominant and explains the diel patterns almost entirely. Higher concentrations of chlordanes and PBDEs in air observed at the end of the study period could be related to likely source areas using back trajectory analysis. This is the first study to clearly document diel variability in concentrations of PBDEs in air over a period of several days. Our model analysis indicates that high daytime and low nighttime concentrations of semivolatile organic chemicals can arise from different underlying driving processes, and are not necessarily evidence of reversible air-surface exchange on a 24-h time scale.

Interpreting Significant Discrete-Time Periods in Survival Analysis.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schumacker, Randall E.; Denson, Kathleen B.

Discrete-time survival analysis is a new method for educational researchers to employ when looking at the timing of certain educational events. Previous continuous-time methods do not allow for the flexibility inherent in a discrete-time method. Because both time-invariant and time-varying predictor variables can now be used, the interaction of…

A Robust Parameterization of Human Gait Patterns Across Phase-Shifting Perturbations

PubMed Central

Villarreal, Dario J.; Poonawala, Hasan A.; Gregg, Robert D.

2016-01-01

The phase of human gait is difficult to quantify accurately in the presence of disturbances. In contrast, recent bipedal robots use time-independent controllers relying on a mechanical phase variable to synchronize joint patterns through the gait cycle. This concept has inspired studies to determine if human joint patterns can also be parameterized by a mechanical variable. Although many phase variable candidates have been proposed, it remains unclear which, if any, provide a robust representation of phase for human gait analysis or control. In this paper we analytically derive an ideal phase variable (the hip phase angle) that is provably monotonic and bounded throughout the gait cycle. To examine the robustness of this phase variable, ten able-bodied human subjects walked over a platform that randomly applied phase-shifting perturbations to the stance leg. A statistical analysis found the correlations between nominal and perturbed joint trajectories to be significantly greater when parameterized by the hip phase angle (0.95+) than by time or a different phase variable. The hip phase angle also best parameterized the transient errors about the nominal periodic orbit. Finally, interlimb phasing was best explained by local (ipsilateral) hip phase angles that are synchronized during the double-support period. PMID:27187967

Evidence for a possible modern and mid-Holocene solar influence on climate from Lake Titicaca, South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Theissen, K. M.; Dunbar, R. B.

2005-12-01

In tropical regions, there are few paleoclimate archives with the necessary resolution to investigate climate variability at interannual-to-decadal timescales prior to the onset of the instrumental record. Interannual variability associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is well documented in the instrumental record and the importance of the precessional forcing of millennial variability has been established in studies of tropical paleoclimate records. In contrast, decade-to-century variability is still poorly understood. Here, we examine interannual to decadal variability in the northern Altiplano of South America using digital image analysis of a floating interval of varved sediments of middle Holocene age (~6160-6310 yr BP) from Lake Titicaca. Multi-taper method (MTM) and wavelet frequency-domain analyses were performed on a time series generated from a gray-scaled digital image of the mm-thick laminations. Our results indicate significant power at a decadal periodicity (10-12 years) associated with the Schwabe cycle of solar activity. Frequency-domain analysis also indicates power at 2-2.5 year periodicities associated with ENSO. Similarly, spectral analysis of a 75 year instrumental record of Titicaca lake level shows significant power at both solar and ENSO periodicities. Although both of the examined records are short, our results imply that during both the mid-Holocene and modern times, solar and ENSO variability may have contributed to high frequency climate fluctuations over the northern Altiplano. We suspect that solar influence on large-scale atmospheric circulation features may account for the decadal variability in the mid-Holocene and present-day water balance of the Altiplano.

The Influence of Convection on Magnetotail Variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peroomian, Vahe; Ashour-Abdalla, Maha; Zelenyi, Lev M.; Petrukovich, Anatoli

1999-01-01

This study investigates the evolution of the magnetotail's magnetic field with the aid of a self-consistent two-dimensional model. In this model the plasma mantle continuously supplies particles to the magnetotail, the ion current periodically updates the magnetic field using the Biot-Savart law. The simulated magnetotail evolves into a quasi-steady state, characterized by the periodic motion of the model's near-Earth X-line. This variability results from the nonadiabatic acceleration of ions in the current sheet and their rapid loss from the tail. The characteristic time scale of variability in the magnetotail is on the order of 4 - 5 minutes. We also investigate how the magnetotail's topology responds to increased convection electric fields, and show examples of observations of variability in the magnetotail.

Time dependent analysis of assay comparability: a novel approach to understand intra- and inter-site variability over time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winiwarter, Susanne; Middleton, Brian; Jones, Barry; Courtney, Paul; Lindmark, Bo; Page, Ken M.; Clark, Alan; Landqvist, Claire

2015-09-01

We demonstrate here a novel use of statistical tools to study intra- and inter-site assay variability of five early drug metabolism and pharmacokinetics in vitro assays over time. Firstly, a tool for process control is presented. It shows the overall assay variability but allows also the following of changes due to assay adjustments and can additionally highlight other, potentially unexpected variations. Secondly, we define the minimum discriminatory difference/ratio to support projects to understand how experimental values measured at different sites at a given time can be compared. Such discriminatory values are calculated for 3 month periods and followed over time for each assay. Again assay modifications, especially assay harmonization efforts, can be noted. Both the process control tool and the variability estimates are based on the results of control compounds tested every time an assay is run. Variability estimates for a limited set of project compounds were computed as well and found to be comparable. This analysis reinforces the need to consider assay variability in decision making, compound ranking and in silico modeling.

Revisiting tropical instability wave variability in the Atlantic ocean using SODA reanalysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Decco, Hatsue Takanaca; Torres Junior, Audalio Rebelo; Pezzi, Luciano Ponzi; Landau, Luiz

2018-03-01

The spatial and temporal variability of energy exchange in Tropical Instability Waves (TIWs) in the Atlantic Ocean were investigated. A spectral analysis was used to filter the 5-day mean results from Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) reanalysis spanning from 1958 to 2008. TIWs were filtered over periods of 15 to 60 days and between wavelengths of 4 and 20 longitude degrees. The main approach of this study was the use of bidirectionally filtered TIW time series as the perturbation fields, and the difference in these time series from the SODA total results was considered to be the basic state for energetics analysis. The main result was that the annual cycle (period of 360 days) was the main source of variability of the waves, and the semi-annual cycle (period of 180 days) was a secondary variation, which indicated that TIWs occurred throughout the year but with intensity that varies seasonally. In SODA, barotropic instability acts as the mechanism that feeds and extracts energy to/from TIWs at equatorial Atlantic. Baroclinic instability is the main mechanism that extracts energy from TIWs to the equatorial circulation north of the Equator. All TIW patterns of variability were observed western of 10° W. The present study reveals new evidences regarding TIW variability and suggests that future investigations should include a detailed description of TIW dynamics as part of Atlantic Ocean equatorial circulation.

Time-Series Photometry of Variable Stars in the Globular Cluster NGC 288

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Dong-Joo; Koo, Jae-Rim; Hong, Kyeongsoo; Kim, Seung-Lee; Lee, Jae Woo; Lee, Chung-Uk; Jeon, Young-Beom; Kim, Yun-Hak; Lim, Beomdu; Ryu, Yoon-Hyun; Cha, Sang-Mok; Lee, Yongseok; Kim, Dong-Jin; Park, Byeong-Gon; Kim, Chun-Hwey

2016-12-01

We present the results of BV time-series photometry of the globular cluster NGC 288. Observations were carried out to search for variable stars using the Korea Microlensing Telescope Network (KMTNet) 1.6-m telescopes and a 4k pre-science CCD camera during a test observation from August to December, 2014. We found a new SX Phe star and confirmed twelve previously known variable stars in NGC 288. For the semi-regular variable star V1, we newly determined a period of 37.3 days from light curves spanning 137 days. The light-curve solution of the eclipsing binary V10 indicates that the system is probably a detached system. The pulsation properties of nine SX Phe stars were examined by applying multiple frequency analysis to their light curves. We derived a new Period-Luminosity (P-L) relation, < M_{V} rangle = -2.476(±0.300) log P - 0.354(±0.385), from six SX Phe stars showing the fundamental mode. Additionally, the period ratios of three SX Phe stars that probably have a double-radial mode were investigated; P_{FO}/P_{F} = 0.779 for V5, P_{TO}/P_{FO} = 0.685 for V9, P_{SO}/P_{FO} = 0.811 for V11. This paper is the first contribution in a series assessing the detections and properties of variable stars in six southern globular clusters with the KMTNet system.

Optical photometric variability of 2S 0114+65

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Taylor, M.; Finley, J. P.; Kurt, C.; Koenigsberger, G.

1995-01-01

In this paper we present Johnson V photometry of the Be/x-ray binary star system 2S 0114+65. Although this star exhibits periodic variations in x-rays, optical studies have failed to reveal fluctuations greater than 5 millimag. The data presented in this paper provide the first evidence for periodic optical variability in 2S 0114+65. On each of four nights in October 1993, we find low amplitude variations with a period of 2.77 +/- 0.48 h and with a semiamplitude of 4 millimag. This period is in good agreement with results of a comprehensive study of the x-ray data. We explore the possibility that this period represents the pulsational period of the B-star primary and the possibility that it is the rotational period of the neutron star. If the latter is the correct interpretation, we calculate a spin-up time scale of 5 x 10(exp 5) yr.

Spectroscopic and photometric variability of the O9.5 Vp star HD 93521

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rauw, G.; De Becker, M.; van Winckel, H.; Aerts, C.; Eenens, P.; Lefever, K.; Vandenbussche, B.; Linder, N.; Nazé, Y.; Gosset, E.

2008-08-01

Aims: The line profile variability and photometric variability of the O9.5 Vp star HD 93521 are examined in order to establish the properties of the non-radial pulsations in this star. Methods: Fourier techniques are used to characterize the modulations of the He i λλ 5876, 6678 and H α lines in several spectroscopic time series and to search for variations in a photometric time series. Results: Our spectroscopic data confirm the existence of two periods of 1.75 and 2.89 h. The line profiles, especially those affected by emission wings, exhibit also modulations on longer time scales, but these are epoch-dependent and change from line to line. Unlike previous claims, we find no unambiguous signature of the rotational period in our data, nor of a third pulsation period (corresponding to a frequency of 2.66 d-1). Conclusions: HD 93521 very likely exhibits non-radial pulsations with periods of 1.75 and 2.89 h with l ≃ 8 ± 1 and l ≃ 4 ± 1 respectively. No significant signal is found in the first harmonics of these two periods. The 2.89 h mode is seen at all epochs and in all lines investigated, while the visibility of the 1.75 h mode is clearly epoch-dependent. Whilst light variations are detected, their connection to these periodicities is not straightforward. Based on observations collected at the Observatoire de Haute Provence (France), the Flemish 1.2 m Mercator telescope at the Roque de los Muchachos observatory (La Palma, Spain) and the Observatorio Astronómico Nacional of San Pedro Mártir (Mexico).

Observations of candidate oscillating eclipsing binaries and two newly discovered pulsating variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liakos, A.; Niarchos, P.

2009-03-01

CCD observations of 24 eclipsing binary systems with spectral types ranging between A0-F0, candidate for containing pulsating components, were obtained. Appropriate exposure times in one or more photometric filters were used so that short-periodic pulsations could be detected. Their light curves were analyzed using the Period04 software in order to search for pulsational behaviour. Two new variable stars, namely GSC 2673-1583 and GSC 3641-0359, were discov- ered as by-product during the observations of eclipsing variables. The Fourier analysis of the observations of each star, the dominant pulsation frequencies and the derived frequency spectra are also presented.

Global Autocorrelation Scales of the Partial Pressure of Oceanic CO2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, Zhen; Adamec, David; Takahashi, Taro; Sutherland, Stewart C.

2004-01-01

A global database of approximately 1.7 million observations of the partial pressure of carbon dioxide in surface ocean waters (pCO2) collected between 1970 and 2003 is used to estimate its spatial autocorrelation structure. The patterns of the lag distance where the autocorrelation exceeds 0.8 is similar to patterns in the spatial distribution of the first baroclinic Rossby radius of deformation indicating that ocean circulation processes play a significant role in determining the spatial variability of pCO2. For example, the global maximum of the distance at which autocorrelations exceed 0.8 averages about 140 km in the equatorial Pacific. Also, the lag distance at which the autocorrelation exceed 0.8 is greater in the vicinity of the Gulf Stream than it is near the Kuroshio, approximately 50 km near the Gulf Stream as opposed to 20 km near the Kuroshio. Separate calculations for times when the sun is north and south of the equator revealed no obvious seasonal dependence of the spatial autocorrelation scales. The pCO2 measurements at Ocean Weather Station (OWS) 'P', in the eastern subarctic Pacific (50 N, 145 W) is the only fixed location where an uninterrupted time series of sufficient length exists to calculate a meaningful temporal autocorrelation function for lags greater than a few days. The estimated temporal autocorrelation function at OWS 'P', is highly variable. A spectral analysis of the longest four pCO2 time series indicates a high level of variability occurring over periods from the atmospheric synoptic to the maximum length of the time series, in this case 42 days. It is likely that a relative peak in variability with a period of 3-6 days is related to atmospheric synoptic period variability and ocean mixing events due to wind stirring. However, the short length of available time series makes identifying temporal relationships between pCO2 and atmospheric or ocean processes problematic.

JIGSAW: Preference-directed, co-operative scheduling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Linden, Theodore A.; Gaw, David

1992-01-01

Techniques that enable humans and machines to cooperate in the solution of complex scheduling problems have evolved out of work on the daily allocation and scheduling of Tactical Air Force resources. A generalized, formal model of these applied techniques is being developed. It is called JIGSAW by analogy with the multi-agent, constructive process used when solving jigsaw puzzles. JIGSAW begins from this analogy and extends it by propagating local preferences into global statistics that dynamically influence the value and variable ordering decisions. The statistical projections also apply to abstract resources and time periods--allowing more opportunities to find a successful variable ordering by reserving abstract resources and deferring the choice of a specific resource or time period.

Synchronization of Human Autonomic Nervous System Rhythms with Geomagnetic Activity in Human Subjects

PubMed Central

McCraty, Rollin; Atkinson, Mike; Stolc, Viktor; Alabdulgader, Abdullah A.; Vainoras, Alfonsas

2017-01-01

A coupling between geomagnetic activity and the human nervous system’s function was identified by virtue of continuous monitoring of heart rate variability (HRV) and the time-varying geomagnetic field over a 31-day period in a group of 10 individuals who went about their normal day-to-day lives. A time series correlation analysis identified a response of the group’s autonomic nervous systems to various dynamic changes in the solar, cosmic ray, and ambient magnetic field. Correlation coefficients and p values were calculated between the HRV variables and environmental measures during three distinct time periods of environmental activity. There were significant correlations between the group’s HRV and solar wind speed, Kp, Ap, solar radio flux, cosmic ray counts, Schumann resonance power, and the total variations in the magnetic field. In addition, the time series data were time synchronized and normalized, after which all circadian rhythms were removed. It was found that the participants’ HRV rhythms synchronized across the 31-day period at a period of approximately 2.5 days, even though all participants were in separate locations. Overall, this suggests that daily autonomic nervous system activity not only responds to changes in solar and geomagnetic activity, but is synchronized with the time-varying magnetic fields associated with geomagnetic field-line resonances and Schumann resonances. PMID:28703754

Period Changes in Pulsating Red Supergiant Stars: A Science and Education Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Percy, J. R.; Favaro, E.; Glasheen, J.; Ho, B.; Sato, H.

2008-12-01

We describe research done as part of the University of Toronto Mentorship Program, which enables outstanding senior high school students to work on research projects at the university. The students began with extensive background reading on variable stars, and became familiar with various forms of time-series analysis by applying them to a few red supergiant variables in the AAVSO International Database; we report on the results. They also prepared a useful manual for our publicly-available self-correlation analysis software. They undertook an intensive analysis of the period changes in BC Cyg, using the AAVSO and Turner data and the (O-C) method, in the hope that evolutionary period changes could be observed. The (O-C) diagram, however, is dominated by errors in determining the times of maximum, and by the effects of cycle-to-cycle period fluctuations. As a result, the (O-C) method is generally not effective for these stars. We also describe the Mentorship Program and its elements, and reflect on the students' experience.

Variability of activity patterns across mood disorders and time of day.

PubMed

Krane-Gartiser, Karoline; Vaaler, Arne E; Fasmer, Ole Bernt; Sørensen, Kjetil; Morken, Gunnar; Scott, Jan

2017-12-19

Few actigraphy studies in mood disorders have simultaneously included unipolar (UP) and bipolar (BD) depression or BD mixed states as a separate subgroup from mania. This study compared objectively measured activity in UP, BD depression, mania and mixed states and examined if patterns differed according to time of day and/or diagnostic group. Eighty -eight acutely admitted inpatients with mood disorders (52 UP; 18 mania; 12 BD depression; 6 mixed states) underwent 24 hours of actigraphy monitoring. Non-parametric analyses were used to compare median activity level over 24 h (counts per minute), two time series (64-min periods of continuous motor activity) in the morning and evening, and variability in activity across and within groups. There was no between-group difference in 24-h median level of activity, but significant differences emerged between BD depression compared to mania in the active morning period, and between UP and mania and mixed states in the active evening period. Within-group analyses revealed that UP cases showed several significant changes between morning and evening activity, with fewer changes in the BD groups. Mean activity over 24 hours has limited utility in differentiating UP and BD. In contrast, analysis of non-linear variability measures of activity at different times of day could help objectively distinguish between mood disorder subgroups. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01415323 , first registration July 6, 2011.

The influence of the call with a mobile phone on heart rate variability parameters in healthy volunteers.

PubMed

Andrzejak, Ryszard; Poreba, Rafal; Poreba, Malgorzata; Derkacz, Arkadiusz; Skalik, Robert; Gac, Pawel; Beck, Boguslaw; Steinmetz-Beck, Aleksandra; Pilecki, Witold

2008-08-01

It is possible that electromagnetic field (EMF) generated by mobile phones (MP) may have an influence on the autonomic nervous system (ANS) and modulates the function of circulatory system. The aim of the study was to estimate the influence of the call with a mobile phone on heart rate variability (HRV) in young healthy people. The time and frequency domain HRV analyses were performed to assess the changes in sympathovagal balance in a group of 32 healthy students with normal electrocardiogram (ECG) and echocardiogram at rest. The frequency domain variables were computed: ultra low frequency (ULF) power, very low frequency (VLF) power, low frequency (LF) power, high frequency (HF) power and LF/HF ratio was determined. ECG Holter monitoring was recorded in standardized conditions: from 08:00 to 09:00 in the morning in a sitting position, within 20 min periods: before the telephone call (period I), during the call with use of mobile phone (period II), and after the telephone call (period III). During 20 min call with a mobile phone time domain parameters such as standard deviation of all normal sinus RR intervals (SDNN [ms]--period I: 73.94+/-25.02, period II: 91.63+/-35.99, period III: 75.06+/-27.62; I-II: p<0.05, II-III: p<0.05) and standard deviation of the averaged normal sinus RR intervals for all 5-mm segments (SDANN [ms]--period I: 47.78+/-22.69, period II: 60.72+/-27.55, period III: 47.12+/-23.21; I-II: p<0.05, II-III: p<0.05) were significantly increased. As well as very low frequency (VLF [ms2]--period I: 456.62+/-214.13, period II: 566.84+/-216.99, period III: 477.43+/-203.94; I-II: p<0.05), low frequency (LF [ms(2)]--period I: 607.97+/-201.33, period II: 758.28+/-307.90, period III: 627.09+/-220.33; I-II: p<0.01, II-III: p<0.05) and high frequency (HF [ms(2)]--period I: 538.44+/-290.63, period II: 730.31+/-445.78, period III: 590.94+/-301.64; I-II: p<0.05) components were the highest and the LF/HF ratio (period I: 1.48+/-0.38, period II: 1.16+/-0.35, period III: 1.46+/-0.40; I-II: p<0.05, II-III: p<0.05) was the lowest during a call with a mobile phone. The tone of the parasympathetic system measured indirectly by analysis of heart rate variability was increased while sympathetic tone was lowered during the call with use of a mobile phone. It was shown that the call with a mobile phone may change the autonomic balance in healthy subjects. Changes in heart rate variability during the call with a mobile phone could be affected by electromagnetic field but the influence of speaking cannot be excluded.

Inconsistencies of interannual variability and trends in long-term satellite leaf area index products.

PubMed

Jiang, Chongya; Ryu, Youngryel; Fang, Hongliang; Myneni, Ranga; Claverie, Martin; Zhu, Zaichun

2017-10-01

Understanding the long-term performance of global satellite leaf area index (LAI) products is important for global change research. However, few effort has been devoted to evaluating the long-term time-series consistencies of LAI products. This study compared four long-term LAI products (GLASS, GLOBMAP, LAI3g, and TCDR) in terms of trends, interannual variabilities, and uncertainty variations from 1982 through 2011. This study also used four ancillary LAI products (GEOV1, MERIS, MODIS C5, and MODIS C6) from 2003 through 2011 to help clarify the performances of the four long-term LAI products. In general, there were marked discrepancies between the four long-term LAI products. During the pre-MODIS period (1982-1999), both linear trends and interannual variabilities of global mean LAI followed the order GLASS>LAI3g>TCDR>GLOBMAP. The GLASS linear trend and interannual variability were almost 4.5 times those of GLOBMAP. During the overlap period (2003-2011), GLASS and GLOBMAP exhibited a decreasing trend, TCDR no trend, and LAI3g an increasing trend. GEOV1, MERIS, and MODIS C6 also exhibited an increasing trend, but to a much smaller extent than that from LAI3g. During both periods, the R 2 of detrended anomalies between the four long-term LAI products was smaller than 0.4 for most regions. Interannual variabilities of the four long-term LAI products were considerably different over the two periods, and the differences followed the order GLASS>LAI3g>TCDR>GLOBMAP. Uncertainty variations quantified by a collocation error model followed the same order. Our results indicate that the four long-term LAI products were neither intraconsistent over time nor interconsistent with each other. These inconsistencies may be due to NOAA satellite orbit changes and MODIS sensor degradation. Caution should be used in the interpretation of global changes derived from the four long-term LAI products. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

An observational method for fast stochastic X-ray polarimetry timing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ingram, Adam R.; Maccarone, Thomas J.

2017-11-01

The upcoming launch of the first space based X-ray polarimeter in ˜40 yr will provide powerful new diagnostic information to study accreting compact objects. In particular, analysis of rapid variability of the polarization degree and angle will provide the opportunity to probe the relativistic motions of material in the strong gravitational fields close to the compact objects, and enable new methods to measure black hole and neutron star parameters. However, polarization properties are measured in a statistical sense, and a statistically significant polarization detection requires a fairly long exposure, even for the brightest objects. Therefore, the sub-minute time-scales of interest are not accessible using a direct time-resolved analysis of polarization degree and angle. Phase-folding can be used for coherent pulsations, but not for stochastic variability such as quasi-periodic oscillations. Here, we introduce a Fourier method that enables statistically robust detection of stochastic polarization variability for arbitrarily short variability time-scales. Our method is analogous to commonly used spectral-timing techniques. We find that it should be possible in the near future to detect the quasi-periodic swings in polarization angle predicted by Lense-Thirring precession of the inner accretion flow. This is contingent on the mean polarization degree of the source being greater than ˜4-5 per cent, which is consistent with the best current constraints on Cygnus X-1 from the late 1970s.

Surgeon and type of anesthesia predict variability in surgical procedure times.

PubMed

Strum, D P; Sampson, A R; May, J H; Vargas, L G

2000-05-01

Variability in surgical procedure times increases the cost of healthcare delivery by increasing both the underutilization and overutilization of expensive surgical resources. To reduce variability in surgical procedure times, we must identify and study its sources. Our data set consisted of all surgeries performed over a 7-yr period at a large teaching hospital, resulting in 46,322 surgical cases. To study factors associated with variability in surgical procedure times, data mining techniques were used to segment and focus the data so that the analyses would be both technically and intellectually feasible. The data were subdivided into 40 representative segments of manageable size and variability based on headers adopted from the common procedural terminology classification. Each data segment was then analyzed using a main-effects linear model to identify and quantify specific sources of variability in surgical procedure times. The single most important source of variability in surgical procedure times was surgeon effect. Type of anesthesia, age, gender, and American Society of Anesthesiologists risk class were additional sources of variability. Intrinsic case-specific variability, unexplained by any of the preceding factors, was found to be highest for shorter surgeries relative to longer procedures. Variability in procedure times among surgeons was a multiplicative function (proportionate to time) of surgical time and total procedure time, such that as procedure times increased, variability in surgeons' surgical time increased proportionately. Surgeon-specific variability should be considered when building scheduling heuristics for longer surgeries. Results concerning variability in surgical procedure times due to factors such as type of anesthesia, age, gender, and American Society of Anesthesiologists risk class may be extrapolated to scheduling in other institutions, although specifics on individual surgeons may not. This research identifies factors associated with variability in surgical procedure times, knowledge of which may ultimately be used to improve surgical scheduling and operating room utilization.

Comparison of calculation methods for estimating annual carbon stock change in German forests under forest management in the German greenhouse gas inventory.

PubMed

Röhling, Steffi; Dunger, Karsten; Kändler, Gerald; Klatt, Susann; Riedel, Thomas; Stümer, Wolfgang; Brötz, Johannes

2016-12-01

The German greenhouse gas inventory in the land use change sector strongly depends on national forest inventory data. As these data were collected periodically 1987, 2002, 2008 and 2012, the time series on emissions show several "jumps" due to biomass stock change, especially between 2001 and 2002 and between 2007 and 2008 while within the periods the emissions seem to be constant due to the application of periodical average emission factors. This does not reflect inter-annual variability in the time series, which would be assumed as the drivers for the carbon stock changes fluctuate between the years. Therefore additional data, which is available on annual basis, should be introduced into the calculations of the emissions inventories in order to get more plausible time series. This article explores the possibility of introducing an annual rather than periodical approach to calculating emission factors with the given data and thus smoothing the trajectory of time series for emissions from forest biomass. Two approaches are introduced to estimate annual changes derived from periodic data: the so-called logging factor method and the growth factor method. The logging factor method incorporates annual logging data to project annual values from periodic values. This is less complex to implement than the growth factor method, which additionally adds growth data into the calculations. Calculation of the input variables is based on sound statistical methodologies and periodically collected data that cannot be altered. Thus a discontinuous trajectory of the emissions over time remains, even after the adjustments. It is intended to adopt this approach in the German greenhouse gas reporting in order to meet the request for annually adjusted values.

Longitudinal assessment of optical quality and intraocular scattering using the double-pass instrument in normal eyes and eyes with short tear breakup time.

PubMed

Kobashi, Hidenaga; Kamiya, Kazutaka; Yanome, Kyohei; Igarashi, Akihito; Shimizu, Kimiya

2013-01-01

To assess the longitudinal changes in optical quality including intraocular scattering in normal eyes and eyes with short tear breakup time (TBUT). We prospectively examined twenty eyes of 20 healthy subjects, and age-matched twenty eyes of 20 short TBUT subjects. The modulation transfer function (MTF) cutoff frequency, the Strehl ratio, and the objective scattering index (OSI) were quantitatively assessed using an Optical Quality Analysis System. We investigated the changes in these variables measured consecutively at the initial examination, 5, and 10 seconds without blinking. We also compared these variables in eyes with short TBUT with those in normal eyes. No significant differences in the MTF cutoff frequency, Strehl ratio, or OSI were detected over a 10-second period in normal eyes. These variables also became significantly degraded even over a 5-second period in eyes with short TBUT (p<0.01). We found significant differences in these variables at 5 and 10 seconds (p<0.05), but none immediately after the blink between normal and short TBUT eyes. Optical quality including intraocular scattering deteriorated significantly with time in eyes with short TBUT, whereas we found significant differences over a 10-second period in normal eyes. Eyes with short TBUT showed greater deterioration in optical quality after the blink than normal eyes. The longitudinal assessment of optical quality may be effective in distinguishing eyes with short TBUT from normal eyes.

[Risk factors for absenteeism due to sick leave in the petroleum industry].

PubMed

Oenning, Nágila Soares Xavier; Carvalho, Fernando Martins; Lima, Veronica Maria Cadena

2014-02-01

To identify risk factors for absenteeism among workers with sick leave in an oil company. A case-control study (120 cases and 656 controls) nested in a retrospective cohort study following up all employees of an oil company in the North-Northeast of Brazil from 2007 to 2009. The response variable used to represent absenteeism with sick leave was the average incidence of sick leave, defined as the ratio between total sick days and potential working days in the period. Logistic regression techniques were used to investigate the association between average incidence of sick leave > 5.0% over the period and the variables sex, position, age, time at work, shift work, smoking, arterial hypertension, body mass index, physical activity, coronary risk, sleep, glycemia, non-managed diabetes, cardiovascular, digestive, musculoskeletal, neurological and neoplastic diseases, straining body positioning during work, satisfaction at work, relationship with management, and concentrated attention at work. Average incidence of sick leave higher than 5.0% in the cohort period was 15.5%. The logistic model revealed that workers with average incidence of sick leave higher than 5.0% were 2.6 times more likely to be female; 2.0 time more likely to be smokers; 1.8 time more likely to be former smokers; 2.2 times more likely to report abnormal sleep and 10.5 times more likely to report dissatisfaction with their than workers with average incidence of sick leave ≤ 5.0% in the period. In this population, female gender, being a smoker or a former smoker, reporting dissatisfaction with the job and reporting abnormal sleep are good predictors of occupational absenteeism with sick leave. To identify risk factors for absenteeism among workers with sick leave in an oil company. A case-control study (120 cases and 656 controls) nested in a retrospective cohort study following up all employees of an oil company in the North-Northeast of Brazil from 2007 to 2009. The response variable used to represent absenteeism with sick leave was the average incidence of sick leave, defined as the ratio between total sick days and potential working days in the period. Logistic regression techniques were used to investigate the association between average incidence of sick leave > 5.0% over the period and the variables sex, position, age, time at work, shift work, smoking, arterial hypertension, body mass index, physical activity, coronary risk, sleep, glycemia, non-managed diabetes, cardiovascular, digestive, musculoskeletal, neurological and neoplastic diseases, straining body positioning during work, satisfaction at work, relationship with management, and concentrated attention at work. Average incidence of sick leave higher than 5.0% in the cohort period was 15.5%. The logistic model revealed that workers with average incidence of sick leave higher than 5.0% were 2.6 times more likely to be female; 2.0 time more likely to be smokers; 1.8 time more likely to be former smokers; 2.2 times more likely to report abnormal sleep and 10.5 times more likely to report dissatisfaction with their than workers with average incidence of sick leave ≤ 5.0% in the period. In this population, female gender, being a smoker or a former smoker, reporting dissatisfaction with the job and reporting abnormal sleep are good predictors of occupational absenteeism with sick leave.

Associations of PM2.5 and black carbon concentrations with traffic, idling, background pollution, and meteorology during school dismissals.

PubMed

Richmond-Bryant, J; Saganich, C; Bukiewicz, L; Kalin, R

2009-05-01

An air quality study was performed outside a cluster of schools in the East Harlem neighborhood of New York City. PM(2.5) and black carbon concentrations were monitored using real-time equipment with a one-minute averaging interval. Monitoring was performed at 1:45-3:30 PM during school days over the period October 31-November 17, 2006. The designated time period was chosen to capture vehicle emissions during end-of-day dismissals from the schools. During the monitoring period, minute-by-minute volume counts of idling and passing school buses, diesel trucks, and automobiles were obtained. These data were transcribed into time series of number of diesel vehicles idling, number of gasoline automobiles idling, number of diesel vehicles passing, and number of automobiles passing along the block adjacent to the school cluster. Multivariate regression models of the log-transform of PM(2.5) and black carbon (BC) concentrations in the East Harlem street canyon were developed using the observation data and data from the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation on meteorology and background PM(2.5). Analysis of variance was used to test the contribution of each covariate to variability in the log-transformed concentrations as a means to judge the relative contribution of each covariate. The models demonstrated that variability in background PM(2.5) contributes 80.9% of the variability in log[PM(2.5)] and 81.5% of the variability in log[BC]. Local traffic sources were demonstrated to contribute 5.8% of the variability in log[BC] and only 0.43% of the variability in log[PM(2.5)]. Diesel idling and passing were both significant contributors to variability in log[BC], while diesel passing was a significant contributor to log[PM(2.5)]. Automobile idling and passing did not contribute significant levels of variability to either concentration. The remainder of variability in each model was explained by temperature, along-canyon wind, and cross-canyon wind, which were all significant in the models.

Latent class instrumental variables: A clinical and biostatistical perspective

PubMed Central

Baker, Stuart G.; Kramer, Barnett S.; Lindeman, Karen S.

2015-01-01

In some two-arm randomized trials, some participants receive the treatment assigned to the other arm as a result of technical problems, refusal of a treatment invitation, or a choice of treatment in an encouragement design. In some before-and-after studies, the availability of a new treatment changes from one time period to this next. Under assumptions that are often reasonable, the latent class instrumental variable (IV) method estimates the effect of treatment received in the aforementioned scenarios involving all-or-none compliance and all-or-none availability. Key aspects are four initial latent classes (sometimes called principal strata) based on treatment received if in each randomization group or time period, the exclusion restriction assumption (in which randomization group or time period is an instrumental variable), the monotonicity assumption (which drops an implausible latent class from the analysis), and the estimated effect of receiving treatment in one latent class (sometimes called efficacy, the local average treatment effect, or the complier average causal effect). Since its independent formulations in the biostatistics and econometrics literatures, the latent class IV method (which has no well-established name) has gained increasing popularity. We review the latent class IV method from a clinical and biostatistical perspective, focusing on underlying assumptions, methodological extensions, and applications in our fields of obstetrics and cancer research. PMID:26239275

Northern North Atlantic Sea Surface Height and Ocean Heat Content Variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hakkinen, Sirpa; Rhines, Peter; Worthen, Denise L.

2013-01-01

The evolution of nearly 20 years of altimetric sea surface height (SSH) is investigated to understand its association with decadal to multidecadal variability of the North Atlantic heat content. Altimetric SSH is dominated by an increase of about 14 cm in the Labrador and Irminger seas from 1993 to 2011, while the opposite has occurred over the Gulf Stream region over the same time period. During the altimeter period the observed 0-700 m ocean heat content (OHC) in the subpolar gyre mirrors the increased SSH by its dominantly positive trend. Over a longer period, 1955-2011, fluctuations in the subpolar OHC reflect Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) and can be attributed to advection driven by the wind stress ''gyre mode'' bringing more subtropical waters into the subpolar gyre. The extended subpolar warming evident in SSH and OHC during the altimeter period represents transition of the AMV from cold to warm phase. In addition to the dominant trend, the first empirical orthogonal function SSH time series shows an abrupt change 2009-2010 reaching a new minimum in 2010. The change coincides with the change in the meridional overturning circulation at 26.5N as observed by the RAPID (Rapid Climate Change) project, and with extreme behavior of the wind stress gyre mode and of atmospheric blocking. While the general relationship between northern warming and Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) volume transport remains undetermined, the meridional heat and salt transport carried by AMOC's arteries are rich with decade-to-century timescale variability.

John Goodricke, Edward Pigott, and Their Study of Variable Stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

French, Linda M.

2011-05-01

John Goodricke (1764-1786) and Edward Pigott (1753-1825) are credited with determining the first accurate periods for several important variable stars. Goodricke's name is associated with the determination of the period of the eclipsing binary Algol (Beta Persei); for this he was awarded the Copley Prize of the Royal Society of London. He also determined the periods of the contact binary Beta Lyrae and of Delta Cephei, the prototype Cepheid variable. Around the same time, Edward Pigott obtained the period of Eta Aquilae, another Cepheid. In actuality, the two collaborated on all these observations; today we would call them co-discoverers. Goodricke is the better known of the two, in part because he won the Copley Medal, in part because of his tragically short life, and in part because he was deaf. Edward Pigott was the more experienced observer, having worked with his father Nathaniel on determining the longitudes of several cities on the Continent. Evidence shows, however, that Goodricke had some astronomical experience while a student at the Warrington Academy. The journals of the two show that they developed a partnership that made the most of both their talents over the brief time (less than five years) they worked together before Goodricke's death. Today, the two are remembered as having suggested eclipses as the cause for the periodic dimming of Algol. This explanation is accepted today as the correct one. In their day, however, most eminent astronomers believed that starspots were a more likely cause for the dimming. By the time of John Goodricke's death, he seems to have accepted that explanation as well. A study of the work of Goodricke and Pigott contains many lessons for today's observers of variable stars. This work was supported by an AAS Small Research Grant and by the Pollack Award of the Dudley Observatory.

Exploring total cardiac variability in healthy and pathophysiological subjects using improved refined multiscale entropy.

PubMed

Marwaha, Puneeta; Sunkaria, Ramesh Kumar

2017-02-01

Multiscale entropy (MSE) and refined multiscale entropy (RMSE) techniques are being widely used to evaluate the complexity of a time series across multiple time scales 't'. Both these techniques, at certain time scales (sometimes for the entire time scales, in the case of RMSE), assign higher entropy to the HRV time series of certain pathologies than that of healthy subjects, and to their corresponding randomized surrogate time series. This incorrect assessment of signal complexity may be due to the fact that these techniques suffer from the following limitations: (1) threshold value 'r' is updated as a function of long-term standard deviation and hence unable to explore the short-term variability as well as substantial variability inherited in beat-to-beat fluctuations of long-term HRV time series. (2) In RMSE, entropy values assigned to different filtered scaled time series are the result of changes in variance, but do not completely reflect the real structural organization inherited in original time series. In the present work, we propose an improved RMSE (I-RMSE) technique by introducing a new procedure to set the threshold value by taking into account the period-to-period variability inherited in a signal and evaluated it on simulated and real HRV database. The proposed I-RMSE assigns higher entropy to the age-matched healthy subjects than that of patients suffering from atrial fibrillation, congestive heart failure, sudden cardiac death and diabetes mellitus, for the entire time scales. The results strongly support the reduction in complexity of HRV time series in female group, old-aged, patients suffering from severe cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular diseases, and in their corresponding surrogate time series.

Impact of the calibration period on the conceptual rainfall-runoff model parameter estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Todorovic, Andrijana; Plavsic, Jasna

2015-04-01

A conceptual rainfall-runoff model is defined by its structure and parameters, which are commonly inferred through model calibration. Parameter estimates depend on objective function(s), optimisation method, and calibration period. Model calibration over different periods may result in dissimilar parameter estimates, while model efficiency decreases outside calibration period. Problem of model (parameter) transferability, which conditions reliability of hydrologic simulations, has been investigated for decades. In this paper, dependence of the parameter estimates and model performance on calibration period is analysed. The main question that is addressed is: are there any changes in optimised parameters and model efficiency that can be linked to the changes in hydrologic or meteorological variables (flow, precipitation and temperature)? Conceptual, semi-distributed HBV-light model is calibrated over five-year periods shifted by a year (sliding time windows). Length of the calibration periods is selected to enable identification of all parameters. One water year of model warm-up precedes every simulation, which starts with the beginning of a water year. The model is calibrated using the built-in GAP optimisation algorithm. The objective function used for calibration is composed of Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient for flows and logarithms of flows, and volumetric error, all of which participate in the composite objective function with approximately equal weights. Same prior parameter ranges are used in all simulations. The model is calibrated against flows observed at the Slovac stream gauge on the Kolubara River in Serbia (records from 1954 to 2013). There are no trends in precipitation nor in flows, however, there is a statistically significant increasing trend in temperatures at this catchment. Parameter variability across the calibration periods is quantified in terms of standard deviations of normalised parameters, enabling detection of the most variable parameters. Correlation coefficients among optimised model parameters and total precipitation P, mean temperature T and mean flow Q are calculated to give an insight into parameter dependence on the hydrometeorological drivers. The results reveal high sensitivity of almost all model parameters towards calibration period. The highest variability is displayed by the refreezing coefficient, water holding capacity, and temperature gradient. The only statistically significant (decreasing) trend is detected in the evapotranspiration reduction threshold. Statistically significant correlation is detected between the precipitation gradient and precipitation depth, and between the time-area histogram base and flows. All other correlations are not statistically significant, implying that changes in optimised parameters cannot generally be linked to the changes in P, T or Q. As for the model performance, the model reproduces the observed runoff satisfactorily, though the runoff is slightly overestimated in wet periods. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE) ranges from 0.44 to 0.79. Higher NSE values are obtained over wetter periods, what is supported by statistically significant correlation between NSE and flows. Overall, no systematic variations in parameters or in model performance are detected. Parameter variability may therefore rather be attributed to errors in data or inadequacies in the model structure. Further research is required to examine the impact of the calibration strategy or model structure on the variability in optimised parameters in time.

Aging and death-associated changes in serum albumin variability over the course of chronic hemodialysis treatment.

PubMed

Nakazato, Yuichi; Kurane, Riichi; Hirose, Satoru; Watanabe, Akihisa; Shimoyama, Hiromi

2017-01-01

Several epidemiological studies have demonstrated associations between variability in a number of biological parameters and adverse outcomes. As the variability may reflect impaired homeostatic regulation, we assessed albumin variability over time in chronic hemodialysis (HD) patients. Data from 1346 subjects who received chronic HD treatment from May 2001 to February 2015 were analyzed according to three phases of HD treatment: post-HD initiation, during maintenance HD treatment, and before death. The serum albumin values were grouped according to the time interval from HD initiation or death, and the yearly trends for both the albumin levels and the intra-individual albumin variability (quantified by the residual coefficient of variation: Alb-rCV) were examined. The HD initiation and death-associated changes were also analyzed using generalized additive mixed models. Furthermore, the long-term trend throughout the maintenance treatment period was evaluated separately using linear regression models. Albumin levels and variability showed distinctive changes during each of the 3 periods. After HD initiation, albumin variability decreased and reached a nadir within a year. During the subsequent maintenance treatment period (interquartile range = 5.2-11.0 years), the log Alb-rCV showed a significant upward trend (mean slope: 0.011 ± 0.035 /year), and its overall mean was -1.49 ± 0.08 (equivalent to an Alb-rCV of 3.22%). During the 1-2 years before death, this upward trend clearly accelerated, and the mean log Alb-rCV in the last year of life was -1.36 ± 0.17. The albumin levels and variability were negatively correlated with each other and exhibited exactly opposite movements throughout the course of chronic HD treatment. Different from the albumin levels, albumin variability was not dependent on chronological age but was independently associated with an individual's aging and death process. The observed upward trend in albumin variability seems to be consistent with a presumed aging-related decline in homeostatic capacity.

The Pan-STARRS 1 Medium Deep Field Variable Star Catalog

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flewelling, Heather

2015-01-01

We present the first Pan-STARRS 1 Medium Deep Field Variable Star Catalog (PS1-MDF-VSC). The Pan-STARRS 1 (PS1) telescope is a 1.8 meter survey telescope with a 1.4 Gigapixel camera, located in Haleakala, Hawaii. The Medium Deep survey, which consists of 10 fields located uniformly across the sky, totalling 70 square degrees, is observed each night, in 2-3 filters per field, with 8 exposures per filter, resulting in 3000-4000 data points per star over a time span of 3.5 years. To find the variables, we select the stars with > 200 detections, between 16th and 21st magnitude. There are approximately 500k stars that fit this criteria, they then go through a lomb-scargle fitting routine to determine periodicity. After a periodicity cut, the ~400 candidates are classified by eye into different types of variable stars. We have identified several hundred variable stars, with periods ranging between a few minutes to a few days, and about half are not previously identified in the literature. We compare our results to the stripe 82 variable catalog, which overlaps part of the sky with the PS1 catalog.

The Pan-STARRS 1 Medium Deep Field Variable Star Catalog

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flewelling, Heather

2015-08-01

We present the first Pan-STARRS 1 Medium Deep Field Variable Star Catalog (PS1-MDF-VSC). The Pan-STARRS 1 (PS1) telescope is a 1.8 meter survey telescope with a 1.4 Gigapixel camera, located in Haleakala, Hawaii. The Medium Deep survey, which consists of 10 fields located uniformly across the sky, totalling 70 square degrees, is observed each night, in 2-3 filters per field, with 8 exposures per filter, resulting in 3000-4000 data points per star over a time span of 3.5 years. To find the variables, we select the stars with > 200 detections, between 16th and 21st magnitude. There are approximately 500k stars that fit this criteria, they then go through a lomb-scargle fitting routine to determine periodicity. After a periodicity cut, the ~400 candidates are classified by eye into different types of variable stars. We have identified several hundred variable stars, with periods ranging between a few minutes to a few days, and about half are not previously identified in the literature. We compare our results to the stripe 82 variable catalog, which overlaps part of the sky with the PS1 catalog.

Non-stationarity of extreme weather events in a changing climate - an application to long-term droughts in the US Southwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grossmann, I.

2013-12-01

Return periods of many extreme weather events are not stationary over time, given increasing risks due to global warming and multidecadal variability resulting from large scale climate patterns. This is problematic as extreme weather events and long-term climate risks such as droughts are typically conceptualized via measures such as return periods that implicitly assume non-stationarity. I briefly review these problems and present an application to the non-stationarity of droughts in the US Southwest. The US Southwest relies on annual precipitation maxima during winter and the North American Monsoon (NAM), both of which vary with large-scale climate patterns, in particular ENSO, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The latter two exhibit variability on longer (multi-decadal) time scales in addition to short-term variations. The region is also part of the subtropical belt projected to become more arid in a warming climate. The possible multidecadal impacts of the PDO on precipitation in the study region are analyzed with a focus on Arizona and New Mexico, using GPCC and CRU data since 1900. The projected impacts of the PDO on annual precipitation during the next three decades with GPCC data are similar in scale to the impacts of global warming on precipitation according to the A1B scenario and the CMIP2 multi-model means, while the combined impact of the PDO and AMO is about 19% larger. The effects according to the CRU dataset are about half as large as the projected global warming impacts. Given the magnitude of the projected impacts from both multidecadal variability and global warming, water management needs to explicitly incorporate both of these trends into long-term planning. Multi-decadal variability could be incorporated into the concept of return periods by presenting return periods as time-varying or as conditional on the respective 'phase' of relevant multidecadal patterns and on global warming. Problems in detecting the PDO signal and potential solutions are also discussed. We find that the long-term effect of the PDO can be more clearly separated from short-term variability by considering return periods of multi-year drought measures rather than return periods of simple drought measures that are more affected by short-term variations.

Simulating extreme low-discharge events for the Rhine using a stochastic model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macian-Sorribes, Hector; Mens, Marjolein; Schasfoort, Femke; Diermanse, Ferdinand; Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel

2017-04-01

The specific features of hydrological droughts make them more difficult to be analysed than other water-related phenomena: longer time scales (months to several years) so less historical events are available, and the drought severity and associate damage depends on a combination of variables with no clear prevalence (e.g., total water deficit, maximum deficit and duration). As part of drought risk analysis, which aims to provide insight into the variability of hydrological conditions and associated socio-economic impacts, long synthetic time series should therefore be developed. In this contribution, we increase the length of the available inflow time series using stochastic autoregressive modelling. This enhancement could improve the characterization of the extreme range and can define extreme droughts with similar periods of return but different patterns that can lead to distinctly different damages. The methodology consists of: 1) fitting an autoregressive model (AR, ARMA…) to the available records; 2) generating extended time series (thousands of years); 3) performing a frequency analysis with different characteristic variables (total, deficit, maximum deficit and so on); and 4) selecting extreme drought events associated with different characteristic variables and return periods. The methodology was applied to the Rhine river discharge at location Lobith, where the Rhine enters The Netherlands. A monthly ARMA(1,1) autoregressive model with seasonally varying parameters was fitted and successfully validated to the historical records available since year 1901. The maximum monthly deficit with respect to a threshold value of 1800 m3/s and the average discharge for a given time span in m3/s were chosen as indicators to identify drought periods. A synthetic series of 10,000 years of discharges was generated using the validated ARMA model. Two time spans were considered in the analysis: the whole calendar year and the half-year period between April and September (the summer half year, where water demands are highest). Frequency analysis was performed for both indicators and time spans for the generated time series and the historical records. The comparison between observed and generated series showed that the ARMA model provides a good reproduction of the maximum deficits and total discharges, especially for the summer half-year period. The resulting synthetic series are therefore considered credible. These synthetic series, with its wealth of information, can then be used as inputs for the damage assessment models, together with information on precipitation deficits, in order to estimate the risk that lower inflows can have on the urban, the agricultural, the shipping sector and so on. This will help in associating economic losses and periods of return, as well as for estimating how droughts with similar periods of return but different patterns can lead to different damages. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT This study has been supported by the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the IMPREX project (grant agreement no: 641.811), and by the Climate-KIC Pioneers into Practice Program supported by the European Union's EIT.

The 3.5 micron light curves of long period variable stars. Ph.D. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Strecker, D. W.

1973-01-01

Infrared observations at an effective wavelength of 3.5 microns of a selected group of long period variable (LPV) stars are presented. Mira type and semiregular stars of M, S, and C spectral classifications were monitored throughout the full cycle of variability. Although the variable infrared radiation does not exactly repeat in intensity or time, the regularity is sufficient to produce mean 3.5 micron light curves. The 3.5 micron maximum radiation lags the visual maximum by about one-seventh of a cycle, while the minimum 3.5 micron intensity occurs nearly one-half cycle after infrared maximum. In some stars, there are inflections or humps on the ascending portion of the 3.5 micron light curve which may also be seen in the visual variations.

Development of heat and drought related extreme weather events and their effect on winter wheat yields in Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lüttger, Andrea B.; Feike, Til

2018-04-01

Climate change constitutes a major challenge for high productivity in wheat, the most widely grown crop in Germany. Extreme weather events including dry spells and heat waves, which negatively affect wheat yields, are expected to aggravate in the future. It is crucial to improve the understanding of the spatiotemporal development of such extreme weather events and the respective crop-climate relationships in Germany. Thus, the present study is a first attempt to evaluate the historic development of relevant drought and heat-related extreme weather events from 1901 to 2010 on county level (NUTS-3) in Germany. Three simple drought indices and two simple heat stress indices were used in the analysis. A continuous increase in dry spells over time was observed over the investigated periods from 1901-1930, 1931-1960, 1961-1990 to 2001-2010. Short and medium dry spells, i.e., precipitation-free periods longer than 5 and 8 days, respectively, increased more strongly compared to longer dry spells (longer than 11 days). The heat-related stress indices with maximum temperatures above 25 and 28 °C during critical wheat growth phases showed no significant increase over the first three periods but an especially sharp increase in the final 1991-2010 period with the increases being particularly pronounced in parts of Southwestern Germany. Trend analysis over the entire 110-year period using Mann-Kendall test revealed a significant positive trend for all investigated indices except for heat stress above 25 °C during flowering period. The analysis of county-level yield data from 1981 to 2010 revealed declining spatial yield variability and rather constant temporal yield variability over the three investigated (1981-1990, 1991-2000, and 2001-2010) decades. A clear spatial gradient manifested over time with variability in the West being much smaller than in the east of Germany. Correlating yield variability with the previously analyzed extreme weather indices revealed strong spatiotemporal fluctuations in explanatory power of the different indices over all German counties and the three time periods. Over the 30 years, yield deviations were increasingly well correlated with heat and drought-related indices, with the number of days with maximum temperature above 25 °C during anthesis showing a sharp increase in explanatory power over entire Germany in the final 2001-2010 period.

Sunshine on my shoulders: Weather, pollution, and emotional distress.

PubMed

Beecher, Mark E; Eggett, Dennis; Erekson, Davey; Rees, Lawrence B; Bingham, Jennie; Klundt, Jared; Bailey, Russell J; Ripplinger, Clark; Kirchhoefer, Jessica; Gibson, Robert; Griner, Derek; Cox, Jonathan C; Boardman, R D

2016-11-15

Researchers have examined the relationship between mental health and weather/pollution with mixed results. The current study aimed to examine a range of weather and atmospheric phenomena and their association with time-bound mental health data. Nineteen different weather/pollution variables were examined in connection with an archive of self-reported mental health data for university students participating in mental health treatment (n=16,452) using the Outcome Questionnaire 45.2 (OQ-45). Statistical approach involved randomly selecting 500 subjects from the sample 1000 different times and testing each variable of interest using mixed models analyses. Seasonal changes in sun time were found to best account for relationships between weather variables and variability in mental health distress. Increased mental health distress was found during periods of reduced sun time hours. A separate analysis examining subjects' endorsement of a suicidality item, though not statistically significant, demonstrated a similar pattern. Initial results showed a relationship between pollution and changes in mental health distress; however, this was mediated by sun time. This study examined a relatively homogenous, predominantly European American, and religious sample of college counseling clients from an area that is subject to inversions and is at a high altitude and a latitude where sun time vacillates significantly more than locations closer to the equator. Seasonal increases in sun time were associated with decreased mental health distress. This suggests the need for institutions and public health entities to plan for intervention and prevention resources and strategies during periods of reduced sun time. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Associating long-term γ-ray variability with the superorbital period of LS I +61°303

DOE PAGES

Ackermann, M.; Ajello, M.; Ballet, J.; ...

2013-08-07

Gamma-ray binaries are stellar systems for which the spectral energy distribution (discounting the thermal stellar emission) peaks at high energies. Detected from radio to TeV gamma rays, the γ-ray binary LS I +61°303 is highly variable across all frequencies. One aspect of this system's variability is the modulation of its emission with the timescale set by the ~26.4960 day orbital period. Here we show that, during the time of our observations, the γ-ray emission of LS I +61°303 also presents a sinusoidal variability consistent with the previously known superorbital period of 1667 days. This modulation is more prominently seen atmore » orbital phases around apastron, whereas it does not introduce a visible change close to periastron. It is also found in the appearance and disappearance of variability at the orbital period in the power spectrum of the data. This behavior could be explained by a quasi-cyclical evolution of the equatorial outflow of the Be companion star, whose features influence the conditions for generating gamma rays. Furthermore, these findings open the possibility to use γ-ray observations to study the outflows of massive stars in eccentric binary systems.« less

Mechanisms Controlling Global Mean Sea Surface Temperature Determined From a State Estimate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ponte, R. M.; Piecuch, C. G.

2018-04-01

Global mean sea surface temperature (T¯) is a variable of primary interest in studies of climate variability and change. The temporal evolution of T¯ can be influenced by surface heat fluxes (F¯) and by diffusion (D¯) and advection (A¯) processes internal to the ocean, but quantifying the contribution of these different factors from data alone is prone to substantial uncertainties. Here we derive a closed T¯ budget for the period 1993-2015 based on a global ocean state estimate, which is an exact solution of a general circulation model constrained to most extant ocean observations through advanced optimization methods. The estimated average temperature of the top (10-m thick) level in the model, taken to represent T¯, shows relatively small variability at most time scales compared to F¯, D¯, or A¯, reflecting the tendency for largely balancing effects from all the latter terms. The seasonal cycle in T¯ is mostly determined by small imbalances between F¯ and D¯, with negligible contributions from A¯. While D¯ seems to simply damp F¯ at the annual period, a different dynamical role for D¯ at semiannual period is suggested by it being larger than F¯. At periods longer than annual, A¯ contributes importantly to T¯ variability, pointing to the direct influence of the variable ocean circulation on T¯ and mean surface climate.

ASSOCIATING LONG-TERM {gamma}-RAY VARIABILITY WITH THE SUPERORBITAL PERIOD OF LS I +61 Degree-Sign 303

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ackermann, M.; Buehler, R.; Ajello, M.

2013-08-20

Gamma-ray binaries are stellar systems for which the spectral energy distribution (discounting the thermal stellar emission) peaks at high energies. Detected from radio to TeV gamma rays, the {gamma}-ray binary LS I +61 Degree-Sign 303 is highly variable across all frequencies. One aspect of this system's variability is the modulation of its emission with the timescale set by the {approx}26.4960 day orbital period. Here we show that, during the time of our observations, the {gamma}-ray emission of LS I +61 Degree-Sign 303 also presents a sinusoidal variability consistent with the previously known superorbital period of 1667 days. This modulation ismore » more prominently seen at orbital phases around apastron, whereas it does not introduce a visible change close to periastron. It is also found in the appearance and disappearance of variability at the orbital period in the power spectrum of the data. This behavior could be explained by a quasi-cyclical evolution of the equatorial outflow of the Be companion star, whose features influence the conditions for generating gamma rays. These findings open the possibility to use {gamma}-ray observations to study the outflows of massive stars in eccentric binary systems.« less

Inverse medium scattering from periodic structures with fixed-direction incoming waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gibson, Peter; Hu, Guanghui; Zhao, Yue

2018-07-01

This paper is concerned with inverse time-harmonic acoustic and electromagnetic scattering from an infinite biperiodic medium (diffraction grating) in three dimensions. In the acoustic case, we prove that the near-field data of fixed-direction plane waves incited at multiple frequencies uniquely determine a refractive index function which depends on two variables. An analogous uniqueness result holds for time-harmonic Maxwell’s system if the inhomogeneity is periodic in one direction and remains invariant along the other two directions. Uniqueness for recovering (non-periodic) compactly supported contrast functions are also presented.

The eclipsing binary star RZ Cas: accretion-driven variability of the multimode oscillation spectrum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mkrtichian, D. E.; Lehmann, H.; Rodríguez, E.; Olson, E.; Kim, S.-L.; Kusakin, A. V.; Lee, J. W.; Youn, J.-H.; Kwon, S.-G.; López-González, M. J.; Janiashvili, E.; Tiwari, S. K.; Joshi, Santosh; Lampens, P.; Van Cauteren, P.; Glazunova, L.; Gamarova, A.; Grankin, K. N.; Rovithis-Livaniou, E.; Svoboda, P.; Uhlar, R.; Tsymbal, V.; Kokumbaeva, R.; Urushadze, T.; Kuratov, K.; Shin, H.-C.; Kang, Y.-W.; Soonthornthum, B.

2018-04-01

We analysed photometric time series of the active, semidetached Algol-type system RZ Cas obtained in 1999-2009, in order to search for seasonal and short-term variations in the oscillation spectrum of RZ Cas A. The orbital period shows ±1 s cyclic variations on time-scales of 6-9 years. We detected six low-degree p-mode oscillations with periods between 22.3 and 26.22 min and obtained safe mode identifications using the periodic spatial filter method. The amplitudes and frequencies of all modes vary.

The effects of food presentation at regular or irregular times on the development of activity-based anorexia in rats.

PubMed

Pérez-Padilla, Angeles; Magalhães, Paula; Pellón, Ricardo

2010-05-01

Activity-based anorexia occurs when food availability is restricted to 1h of the day and a wheel is freely available to the rest of the time. Under such conditions rats run excessively and stop eating even during periods in which food is available. A defining characteristic of the excessive activity is that there is a peak of running in the anticipation of food availability. The present study was designed to test whether the occurrence of the food period at different times of the light phase of the light-dark cycle (from 08:00 to 20:00h) could impede or postpone the normal development of activity anorexia. We compared the effect of presenting the food at a fixed time of the light period with presenting it on a variable schedule. Far from impeding or postponing the development of activity-based anorexia, presenting food at irregular times resulted in a pronounced body-weight loss, a low food intake and an increase in locomotor activity. Animals ran excessively, with a peak at the start of the dark period, and again when lights were turned on in the experimental room (running in the anticipation of food). Both fixed and variable schedules of food availability resulted in the development of activity-based anorexia in rats. Copyright (c) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Mars dust storms - Interannual variability and chaos

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ingersoll, Andrew P.; Lyons, James R.

1993-01-01

The hypothesis is that the global climate system, consisting of atmospheric dust interacting with the circulation, produces its own interannual variability when forced at the annual frequency. The model has two time-dependent variables representing the amount of atmospheric dust in the northern and southern hemispheres, respectively. Absorption of sunlight by the dust drives a cross-equatorial Hadley cell that brings more dust into the heated hemisphere. The circulation decays when the dust storm covers the globe. Interannual variability manifests itself either as a periodic solution in which the period is a multiple of the Martian year, or as an aperiodic (chaotic) solution that never repeats. Both kinds of solution are found in the model, lending support to the idea that interannual variability is an intrinsic property of the global climate system. The next step is to develop a hierarchy of dust-circulation models capable of being integrated for many years.

The 27-day versus 13.5-day variations in the solar Lyman-alpha radiation and the radio wave absorption in the lower ionosphere over Europe

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Delamorena, B. A.; Lastovicka, Jan; Rapoport, Z. TS.; Alberca, L.

1989-01-01

In order to clarify the question of solar periods in absorption, the pattern was studied of the solar Lyman-alpha radiation (the principal ionizing agent of the lower ionosphere) and of the radio wave absorption at five widely spaced places in Europe. When the solar Lyman-alpha flux variability is very well developed, then it dominates in the lower ionospheric variability. The most pronounced Lyman-alpha variation on time scale day-month is the solar rotation variation (about 27 days). When the Lyman-alpha variability is developed rather poorly, as it is typical for periods dominated by the 13.5 day variability, then the lower ionospheric variability appears to be dominated by variations of meteorological origin. The conclusions hold for all five widely spaced placed in Europe.

Global bioevents and the question of periodicity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sepkoski, J. John

The hypothesis of periodicity in extinction is an empirical claim that extinction events, while variable in magnitude, are regular in timing and therefore are serially dependent upon some single, ultimate cause with clocklike behavior. This hypothesis is controversal, in part because of questions regarding the identity and timing of certain extinction events and because of speculations concerning possible catastrophic extraterrestrial forcing mechanisms. New data on extinctions of marine animal genera are presented that display a high degree of periodicity in the Mesozoic and Cenozoic as well as a suggestion of nonstationary periodicity in the late Paleozoic. However, no periodicity is evident among the as yet poorly documented extinction events of the early and middle Paleozoic.

Molluscan sclerochronology on the Faroese Shelf and its potential to obtain closer insights into the climate variability of North Atlantic water masses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonitz, F. G. W.; Andersson Dahl, C.; Trofimova, T.

2016-12-01

In this study, we investigate the climate variability in the North Atlantic during the last 350 years by applying sclerochronological methods. The inflow of North Atlantic water masses into the Arctic and the Norwegian Sea is important for the climate in these regions. A better understanding of the climate variability on highly resolved time scales is needed to obtain a better fundament for climate predictions for these areas. However, highly resolved paleoclimate records are sparse in the North Atlantic and instrumental data cover only the last 50 - 150 years. Bivalve shells provide highly resolved climate archives, especially the shells of the long-lived bivalve species Arctica islandica. This widely occurring species forms annual growth increments, which can be analyzed similarly to tree rings. Climatic and oceanographic changes are recorded population-wide in the shell`s growth rate and in the isotopic composition of the shell. Hence, multi-centennial absolutely dated chronologies can be built by cross-matching live-collected and sub-fossil specimens. Our chronology building effort has led to the first multi-centennial absolutely dated chronology from the Faroese Shelf covering the time period from AD 1642 - 2013. The growth indices of the chronology anti-correlate with April - September sea surface temperatures (SST) for the last 100 years indicating favorable conditions for growth when temperatures are lower. This also suggests that the main growing season of A. islandica around the Faroe Islands occurs in this time period; a hypothesis supported by δ18O-based temperature reconstructions from growth increments representing the years 2001 - 2013. The RBAR, which is an indicator for the signal strength throughout the chronology shows an inverse relationship with Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) data indicating that periods of higher AMO indexes result in a weakened signal strength in the chronology for the same time period. In conclusion, our results suggest that a combination of the growth increment variability and δ18O measurements of the growth increments can provide a tool to obtain information about the year-to-year SST variability beyond instrumental observations and the signal strength throughout the chronology may provide information about the timing of major AMO shifts.

Long-term variability in sugarcane bagasse feedstock compositional methods: Sources and magnitude of analytical variability

DOE PAGES

Templeton, David W.; Sluiter, Justin B.; Sluiter, Amie; ...

2016-10-18

In an effort to find economical, carbon-neutral transportation fuels, biomass feedstock compositional analysis methods are used to monitor, compare, and improve biofuel conversion processes. These methods are empirical, and the analytical variability seen in the feedstock compositional data propagates into variability in the conversion yields, component balances, mass balances, and ultimately the minimum ethanol selling price (MESP). We report the average composition and standard deviations of 119 individually extracted National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) bagasse [Reference Material (RM) 8491] run by seven analysts over 7 years. Two additional datasets, using bulk-extracted bagasse (containing 58 and 291 replicates each),more » were examined to separate out the effects of batch, analyst, sugar recovery standard calculation method, and extractions from the total analytical variability seen in the individually extracted dataset. We believe this is the world's largest NIST bagasse compositional analysis dataset and it provides unique insight into the long-term analytical variability. Understanding the long-term variability of the feedstock analysis will help determine the minimum difference that can be detected in yield, mass balance, and efficiency calculations. The long-term data show consistent bagasse component values through time and by different analysts. This suggests that the standard compositional analysis methods were performed consistently and that the bagasse RM itself remained unchanged during this time period. The long-term variability seen here is generally higher than short-term variabilities. It is worth noting that the effect of short-term or long-term feedstock compositional variability on MESP is small, about $0.03 per gallon. The long-term analysis variabilities reported here are plausible minimum values for these methods, though not necessarily average or expected variabilities. We must emphasize the importance of training and good analytical procedures needed to generate this data. As a result, when combined with a robust QA/QC oversight protocol, these empirical methods can be relied upon to generate high-quality data over a long period of time.« less

Long-term variability in sugarcane bagasse feedstock compositional methods: Sources and magnitude of analytical variability

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Templeton, David W.; Sluiter, Justin B.; Sluiter, Amie

In an effort to find economical, carbon-neutral transportation fuels, biomass feedstock compositional analysis methods are used to monitor, compare, and improve biofuel conversion processes. These methods are empirical, and the analytical variability seen in the feedstock compositional data propagates into variability in the conversion yields, component balances, mass balances, and ultimately the minimum ethanol selling price (MESP). We report the average composition and standard deviations of 119 individually extracted National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) bagasse [Reference Material (RM) 8491] run by seven analysts over 7 years. Two additional datasets, using bulk-extracted bagasse (containing 58 and 291 replicates each),more » were examined to separate out the effects of batch, analyst, sugar recovery standard calculation method, and extractions from the total analytical variability seen in the individually extracted dataset. We believe this is the world's largest NIST bagasse compositional analysis dataset and it provides unique insight into the long-term analytical variability. Understanding the long-term variability of the feedstock analysis will help determine the minimum difference that can be detected in yield, mass balance, and efficiency calculations. The long-term data show consistent bagasse component values through time and by different analysts. This suggests that the standard compositional analysis methods were performed consistently and that the bagasse RM itself remained unchanged during this time period. The long-term variability seen here is generally higher than short-term variabilities. It is worth noting that the effect of short-term or long-term feedstock compositional variability on MESP is small, about $0.03 per gallon. The long-term analysis variabilities reported here are plausible minimum values for these methods, though not necessarily average or expected variabilities. We must emphasize the importance of training and good analytical procedures needed to generate this data. As a result, when combined with a robust QA/QC oversight protocol, these empirical methods can be relied upon to generate high-quality data over a long period of time.« less

VStar: Variable star data visualization and analysis tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

VStar Team

2014-07-01

VStar is a multi-platform, easy-to-use variable star data visualization and analysis tool. Data for a star can be read from the AAVSO (American Association of Variable Star Observers) database or from CSV and TSV files. VStar displays light curves and phase plots, can produce a mean curve, and analyzes time-frequency with Weighted Wavelet Z-Transform. It offers tools for period analysis, filtering, and other functions.

Low Luminosity States of the Black Hole Candidate GX 339-4. 2; Timing Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nowak, Michael A.; Wilms, Joern; Dove, James B.

1999-01-01

Here we present timing analysis of a set of eight Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer (RXTE) observations of the black hole candidate GX 339-4 that were taken during its hard/low state. On long time scales, the RXTE All Sky Monitor data reveal evidence of a 240 day periodicity, comparable to timescales expected from warped, precessing accretion disks. On short timescales all observations save one show evidence of a persistent f(qpo approximately equals 0.3 Hz quasi-periodic oscillations (QPO)). The broad band (10 (exp -3) to 10 (exp2) Hz) power appears to be dominated by two independent processes that can be modeled as very broad Lorentzians with Q approximately less than - 1. The coherence function between soft and hard photon variability shows that if these are truly independent processes, then they are individually coherent, but they are incoherent with one another. This is evidenced by the fact that the coherence function between the hard and soft variability is near unity between 5 x 10 (exp -3) but shows evidence of a dip at f approximately equals 1 Hz. This is the region of overlap between the broad Lorentzian fits to the Power Spectral Density (PSD). Similar to Cyg X-1, the coherence also drops dramatically at frequencies approximately greater than 1O Hz. Also similar to Cyg X-1, the hard photon variability is seen to lag the soft photon variability with the lag time increasing with decreasing Fourier frequency. The magnitude of this time lag appears to be positively correlated with the flux of GX 339-4. We discuss all of these observations in light of current theoretical models of both black hole spectra and temporal variability.

Sea Surface Temperature and Ocean Color Variability in the South China Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Conaty, A. P.

2001-12-01

The South China Sea is a marginal sea in the Southeast Asian region whose surface circulation is driven by monsoons and whose surface currents have complex seasonal patterns. Its rich natural resources and strategic location have made its small islands areas of political dispute among the neighboring nations. This study aims to show the seasonal and interannual variability of sea surface temperature and ocean color in South China Sea. It makes use of NOAA's Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) satellite data sets on sea surface temperature for the period 1981-2000 and NASA's Nimbus-7 Coastal Zone Color Scanner (CZCS) and Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) satellite data sets on pigment concentration (ocean color) for the period 1981-1996 and 1997-2000, respectively. Transect lines were drawn along several potential hotspot areas to show the variability in sea surface temperature and pigment concentration through time. In-situ data on sea surface temperature along South China Sea were likewise plotted to see the variability with time. Higher seasonal variability in sea surface temperature was seen at higher latitudes. Interannual variability was within 1-3 Kelvin. In most areas, pigment concentration was higher during northern hemisphere winter and autumn, after the monsoon rains, with a maximum of 30 milligrams per cubic meter.

A Survey of Phase Variable Candidates of Human Locomotion

PubMed Central

Villarreal, Dario J.; Gregg, Robert D.

2014-01-01

Studies show that the human nervous system is able to parameterize gait cycle phase using sensory feedback. In the field of bipedal robots, the concept of a phase variable has been successfully used to mimic this behavior by parameterizing the gait cycle in a time-independent manner. This approach has been applied to control a powered transfemoral prosthetic leg, but the proposed phase variable was limited to the stance period of the prosthesis only. In order to achieve a more robust controller, we attempt to find a new phase variable that fully parameterizes the gait cycle of a prosthetic leg. The angle with respect to a global reference frame at the hip is able to monotonically parameterize both the stance and swing periods of the gait cycle. This survey looks at multiple phase variable candidates involving the hip angle with respect to a global reference frame across multiple tasks including level-ground walking, running, and stair negotiation. In particular, we propose a novel phase variable candidate that monotonically parameterizes the whole gait cycle across all tasks, and does so particularly well across level-ground walking. In addition to furthering the design of robust robotic prosthetic leg controllers, this survey could help neuroscientists and physicians study human locomotion across tasks from a time-independent perspective. PMID:25570873

Non-stationary dynamics in the bouncing ball: A wavelet perspective

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Behera, Abhinna K., E-mail: abhinna@iiserkol.ac.in; Panigrahi, Prasanta K., E-mail: pprasanta@iiserkol.ac.in; Sekar Iyengar, A. N., E-mail: ansekar.iyengar@saha.ac.in

2014-12-01

The non-stationary dynamics of a bouncing ball, comprising both periodic as well as chaotic behavior, is studied through wavelet transform. The multi-scale characterization of the time series displays clear signatures of self-similarity, complex scaling behavior, and periodicity. Self-similar behavior is quantified by the generalized Hurst exponent, obtained through both wavelet based multi-fractal detrended fluctuation analysis and Fourier methods. The scale dependent variable window size of the wavelets aptly captures both the transients and non-stationary periodic behavior, including the phase synchronization of different modes. The optimal time-frequency localization of the continuous Morlet wavelet is found to delineate the scales corresponding tomore » neutral turbulence, viscous dissipation regions, and different time varying periodic modulations.« less

The cataclysmic variable AE Aquarii: orbital variability in V band

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zamanov, R.; Latev, G.

2017-07-01

We present 62.7 hours observations of the cataclysmic variable AE Aqr in Johnson V band. These are non-published archive electro-photometric data obtained during the time period 1993 to 1999. We construct the orbital variability in V band and obtain a Fourier fit to the double-wave quiescent light curve. The strongest flares in our data set are in phase interval 0.6 - 0.8. The data can be downloaded from http://www.astro.bas.bg/~rz/DATA/AEAqr.elphot.dat.

Using Variable Interval Reinforcement Schedules to Support Students in the Classroom: An Introduction with Illustrative Examples

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hulac, David; Benson, Nicholas; Nesmith, Matthew C.; Wollersheim Shervey, Sarah

2016-01-01

When behaviors are reinforced with a variable interval reinforcement schedule, reinforcement is available only after an unknown period of time. These types of reinforcement schedules are most useful for reinforcing slow and steady responding and for differentially reinforcing behaviors that are incompatible with some problematic behaviors. This…

Military Enlistments: What Can We Learn from Geographic Variation? Technical Report 620.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brown, Charles

Some economic variables were examined that affect enlistment decisions and therefore affect the continued success of the All-Volunteer Force. The study used a multiple regression, pooled cross-section/time-series model over the 1975-1982 period, including pay, unemployment, educational benefits, and recruiting resources as independent variables.…

The Adiabatic Invariance of the Action Variable in Classical Dynamics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wells, Clive G.; Siklos, Stephen T. C.

2007-01-01

We consider one-dimensional classical time-dependent Hamiltonian systems with quasi-periodic orbits. It is well known that such systems possess an adiabatic invariant which coincides with the action variable of the Hamiltonian formalism. We present a new proof of the adiabatic invariance of this quantity and illustrate our arguments by means of…

Children's Motivation in Elementary Physical Education: A Longitudinal Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Xiang, Ping; McBride, Ron; Guan, Jianmin

2004-01-01

The present study examined relationships among variables drawn from achievement goal theory and the expectancy-value model of achievement choice as well as mean level changes of these variables over time in elementary physical education. Participants (N = 207) completed questionnaires over a 2-year period: once while in the second and fourth…

Effects of state recovery on creep buckling under variable loading

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robinson, D. N.; Arnold, S. M.

1986-01-01

Structural alloys embody internal mechanisms that allow recovery of state with varying stress and elevated temperature, i.e., they can return to a softer state following periods of hardening. Such material behavior is known to strongly influence structural response under some important thermomechanical loadings, for example, that involving thermal ratchetting. The influence of dynamic and thermal recovery on the creep buckling of a column under variable loading is investigated. The column is taken as the idealized (Shanley) sandwich column. The constitutive model, unlike the commonly employed Norton creep model, incorporates a representation of both dynamic and thermal (state) recovery. The material parameters of the constitutive model are chosen to characterize Narloy Z, a representative copper alloy used in thrust nozzle liners of reusable rocket engines. Variable loading histories include rapid cyclic unloading/reloading sequences and intermittent reductions of load for extended periods of time; these are superimposed on a constant load. The calculated results show that state recovery significantly affects creep buckling under variable loading. Structural alloys embody internal mechanisms that allow recovery of state with varying stress and time.

Statistical methods and regression analysis of stratospheric ozone and meteorological variables in Isfahan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hassanzadeh, S.; Hosseinibalam, F.; Omidvari, M.

2008-04-01

Data of seven meteorological variables (relative humidity, wet temperature, dry temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, ground temperature and sun radiation time) and ozone values have been used for statistical analysis. Meteorological variables and ozone values were analyzed using both multiple linear regression and principal component methods. Data for the period 1999-2004 are analyzed jointly using both methods. For all periods, temperature dependent variables were highly correlated, but were all negatively correlated with relative humidity. Multiple regression analysis was used to fit the meteorological variables using the meteorological variables as predictors. A variable selection method based on high loading of varimax rotated principal components was used to obtain subsets of the predictor variables to be included in the linear regression model of the meteorological variables. In 1999, 2001 and 2002 one of the meteorological variables was weakly influenced predominantly by the ozone concentrations. However, the model did not predict that the meteorological variables for the year 2000 were not influenced predominantly by the ozone concentrations that point to variation in sun radiation. This could be due to other factors that were not explicitly considered in this study.

Evaluating the uncertainty of predicting future climate time series at the hourly time scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caporali, E.; Fatichi, S.; Ivanov, V. Y.

2011-12-01

A stochastic downscaling methodology is developed to generate hourly, point-scale time series for several meteorological variables, such as precipitation, cloud cover, shortwave radiation, air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and atmospheric pressure. The methodology uses multi-model General Circulation Model (GCM) realizations and an hourly weather generator, AWE-GEN. Probabilistic descriptions of factors of change (a measure of climate change with respect to historic conditions) are computed for several climate statistics and different aggregation times using a Bayesian approach that weights the individual GCM contributions. The Monte Carlo method is applied to sample the factors of change from their respective distributions thereby permitting the generation of time series in an ensemble fashion, which reflects the uncertainty of climate projections of future as well as the uncertainty of the downscaling procedure. Applications of the methodology and probabilistic expressions of certainty in reproducing future climates for the periods, 2000 - 2009, 2046 - 2065 and 2081 - 2100, using the 1962 - 1992 period as the baseline, are discussed for the location of Firenze (Italy). The climate predictions for the period of 2000 - 2009 are tested against observations permitting to assess the reliability and uncertainties of the methodology in reproducing statistics of meteorological variables at different time scales.

Period changes of the long-period cataclysmic binary EX Draconis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pilarčík, L.; Wolf, M.; Dubovský, P. A.; Hornoch, K.; Kotková, L.

2012-03-01

The cataclysmic variable star EX Dra is a relatively faint but frequently investigated eclipsing dwarf nova. In total 35 new eclipses were measured photometrically as part of our long-term monitoring of interesting eclipsing systems. Using published and new mid-eclipse times obtained between 2004 and 2011 we constructed the observed-minus-calculated diagram. The current data present 21 years of period modulation with a semi-amplitude of 2.5 min. The eclipse timings show significant deviations from the best sinusoidal fit, which indicates that this ephemeris is not a complete description of the data. The fractional period change is roughly ΔP/P = 3 × 10-6.

Rapid-cadence optical monitoring for short-period variability of ɛ Aurigae

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Billings, Gary

2013-07-01

ɛ Aurigae was observed with CCD cameras and 35 mm SLR camera lenses, at rapid cadence (>1/minute), for long runs (up to 11 hours), on multiple occasions during 2009 - 2011, to monitor for variability of the system at scales of minutes to hours. The lens and camera were changed during the period to improve results, finalizing on a 135 mm focal length Canon f/2 lens (at f/2.8), an ND8 neutral density filter, a Johnson V filter, and an SBIG ST-8XME camera (Kodak KAF-1603ME microlensed chip). Differential photometry was attempted, but because of the large separation between the variable and comparison star (η Aur), noise caused by transient extinction variations was not consistently eliminated. The lowest-noise time series for searching for short-period variability proved to be the extinction-corrected instrumental magnitude of ɛ Aur obtained on "photometric nights", with η Aur used to determine and monitor the extinction coefficient for the night. No flares or short-period variations of ɛ Aur were detected by visual inspection of the light curves from observing runs with noise levels as low as 0.008 magnitudes rms.

Partitioning the impacts of spatial and climatological rainfall variability in urban drainage modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peleg, Nadav; Blumensaat, Frank; Molnar, Peter; Fatichi, Simone; Burlando, Paolo

2017-03-01

The performance of urban drainage systems is typically examined using hydrological and hydrodynamic models where rainfall input is uniformly distributed, i.e., derived from a single or very few rain gauges. When models are fed with a single uniformly distributed rainfall realization, the response of the urban drainage system to the rainfall variability remains unexplored. The goal of this study was to understand how climate variability and spatial rainfall variability, jointly or individually considered, affect the response of a calibrated hydrodynamic urban drainage model. A stochastic spatially distributed rainfall generator (STREAP - Space-Time Realizations of Areal Precipitation) was used to simulate many realizations of rainfall for a 30-year period, accounting for both climate variability and spatial rainfall variability. The generated rainfall ensemble was used as input into a calibrated hydrodynamic model (EPA SWMM - the US EPA's Storm Water Management Model) to simulate surface runoff and channel flow in a small urban catchment in the city of Lucerne, Switzerland. The variability of peak flows in response to rainfall of different return periods was evaluated at three different locations in the urban drainage network and partitioned among its sources. The main contribution to the total flow variability was found to originate from the natural climate variability (on average over 74 %). In addition, the relative contribution of the spatial rainfall variability to the total flow variability was found to increase with longer return periods. This suggests that while the use of spatially distributed rainfall data can supply valuable information for sewer network design (typically based on rainfall with return periods from 5 to 15 years), there is a more pronounced relevance when conducting flood risk assessments for larger return periods. The results show the importance of using multiple distributed rainfall realizations in urban hydrology studies to capture the total flow variability in the response of the urban drainage systems to heavy rainfall events.

Optimizing ELISAs for precision and robustness using laboratory automation and statistical design of experiments.

PubMed

Joelsson, Daniel; Moravec, Phil; Troutman, Matthew; Pigeon, Joseph; DePhillips, Pete

2008-08-20

Transferring manual ELISAs to automated platforms requires optimizing the assays for each particular robotic platform. These optimization experiments are often time consuming and difficult to perform using a traditional one-factor-at-a-time strategy. In this manuscript we describe the development of an automated process using statistical design of experiments (DOE) to quickly optimize immunoassays for precision and robustness on the Tecan EVO liquid handler. By using fractional factorials and a split-plot design, five incubation time variables and four reagent concentration variables can be optimized in a short period of time.

Dengue dynamics in Binh Thuan province, southern Vietnam: periodicity, synchronicity and climate variability.

PubMed

Thai, Khoa T D; Cazelles, Bernard; Nguyen, Nam Van; Vo, Long Thi; Boni, Maciej F; Farrar, Jeremy; Simmons, Cameron P; van Doorn, H Rogier; de Vries, Peter J

2010-07-13

Dengue is a major global public health problem with increasing incidence and geographic spread. The epidemiology is complex with long inter-epidemic intervals and endemic with seasonal fluctuations. This study was initiated to investigate dengue transmission dynamics in Binh Thuan province, southern Vietnam. Wavelet analyses were performed on time series of monthly notified dengue cases from January 1994 to June 2009 (i) to detect and quantify dengue periodicity, (ii) to describe synchrony patterns in both time and space, (iii) to investigate the spatio-temporal waves and (iv) to associate the relationship between dengue incidence and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices in Binh Thuan province, southern Vietnam. We demonstrate a continuous annual mode of oscillation and a multi-annual cycle of around 2-3-years was solely observed from 1996-2001. Synchrony in time and between districts was detected for both the annual and 2-3-year cycle. Phase differences used to describe the spatio-temporal patterns suggested that the seasonal wave of infection was either synchronous among all districts or moving away from Phan Thiet district. The 2-3-year periodic wave was moving towards, rather than away from Phan Thiet district. A strong non-stationary association between ENSO indices and climate variables with dengue incidence in the 2-3-year periodic band was found. A multi-annual mode of oscillation was observed and these 2-3-year waves of infection probably started outside Binh Thuan province. Associations with climatic variables were observed with dengue incidence. Here, we have provided insight in dengue population transmission dynamics over the past 14.5 years. Further studies on an extensive time series dataset are needed to test the hypothesis that epidemics emanate from larger cities in southern Vietnam.

QATS: Quasiperiodic Automated Transit Search

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carter, Joshua A.; Agol, Eric

2017-12-01

QATS detects transiting extrasolar planets in time-series photometry. It relaxes the usual assumption of strictly periodic transits by permitting a variable, but bounded, interval between successive transits.

Decadal variability of drought conditions over the southern part of Europe based on Principal Oscillation Pattern Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ionita-Scholz, Monica; Tallaksen, Lena M.; Scholz, Patrick

2017-04-01

This study introduces a novel method of estimating the decay time, mean period and forcing statistics of drought conditions over large spatial domains, demonstrated here for southern part of Europe (10°E - 40°E, 35°N - 50°N). It uses a two-dimensional stochastically forced damped linear oscillator model with the model parameters estimated from a Principal Oscillation Pattern (POP) analysis and associated observed power spectra. POP is a diagnostic technique that aims to derive the space-time characteristics of a data set objectively. This analysis is performed on an extended observational time series of 114 years (1902 - 2015) of the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index for an accumulation period of 12 months (SPEI12), based on the Climate Research Unit (CRU TS v. 3.24) data set. The POP analysis reveals four exceptionally stable modes of variability, which together explain more than 62% of the total explained variance. The most stable POP mode, which explains 16.3% of the total explained variance, is characterized by a period of oscillation of 14 years and a decay time of 31 years. The real part of POP1 is characterized by a monopole-like structure with the highest loadings over Portugal, western part of Spain and Turkey. The second stable mode, which explains 15.9% of the total explained variance, is characterized by a period of oscillation of 20 years and a decay time of 26.4 years. The spatial structure of the real part of POP2 has a dipole-like structure with the highest positive loadings over France, southern Germany and Romania and negative loadings over southern part of Spain. The third POP mode, in terms of stability, explains 14.0% of the total variance and is characterized by a period of oscillation of 33 years and a decay time of 43.5 years. The real part of POP3 is characterized by negative loadings over the eastern part of Europe and positive loadings over Turkey. The fourth stable POP mode, explaining 15.5% of the total variance, is characterized by an oscillation of 65 years and a damping time of 54 years. The spatial structure of POP4 is characterized by positive loadings over France and negative loadings over the southern part of the Iberian Peninsula and the eastern part of Europe. The stable POP modes identified could be related to preferred modes of climate variability that are characterized by similar oscillation periods (e.g. the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, which is defined as a coherent pattern of variability in basin-wide North Atlantic sea surface temperatures with a period of 60-80 years). The decadal components identified by the POP analysis can be used operationally by decision makers as early predictors of drought conditions over the southern part of Europe.

Effect of Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy on Incident AIDS Using Calendar Period as an Instrumental Variable

PubMed Central

Cole, Stephen R.; Greenland, Sander; Brown, Todd T.; Chmiel, Joan S.; Kingsley, Lawrence; Detels, Roger

2009-01-01

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) researchers often use calendar periods as an imperfect proxy for highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) when estimating the effect of HAART on HIV disease progression. The authors report on 614 HIV-positive homosexual men followed from 1984 to 2007 in 4 US cities. During 5,321 person-years, 268 of 614 men incurred acquired immunodeficiency syndrome, 49 died, and 90 were lost to follow-up. Comparing the pre-HAART calendar period (<1996) with the HAART calendar period (≥1996) resulted in a naive rate ratio of 3.62 (95% confidence limits: 2.67, 4.92). However, this estimate is likely biased because of misclassification of HAART use by calendar period. Simple calendar period approaches may circumvent confounding by indication at the cost of inducing exposure misclassification. To correct this misclassification, the authors propose an instrumental-variable estimator analogous to ones previously used for noncompliance corrections in randomized clinical trials. When the pre-HAART calendar period was compared with the HAART calendar period, the instrumental-variable rate ratio was 5.02 (95% confidence limits: 3.45, 7.31), 39% higher than the naive result. Weighting by the inverse probability of calendar period given age at seroconversion, race/ethnicity, and time since seroconversion did not appreciably alter the results. These methods may help resolve discrepancies between observational and randomized evidence. PMID:19318615

The sensitivity of the atmospheric branch of the global water cycle to temperature fluctuations at synoptic to decadal time-scales in different satellite- and model-based products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nogueira, Miguel

2018-02-01

Spectral analysis of global-mean precipitation, P, evaporation, E, precipitable water, W, and surface temperature, Ts, revealed significant variability from sub-daily to multi-decadal time-scales, superposed on high-amplitude diurnal and yearly peaks. Two distinct regimes emerged from a transition in the spectral exponents, β. The weather regime covering time-scales < 10 days with β ≥ 1; and the macroweather regime extending from a few months to a few decades with 0 <β <1. Additionally, the spectra showed a generally good statistical agreement amongst several different model- and satellite-based datasets. Detrended cross-correlation analysis (DCCA) revealed three important results which are robust across all datasets: (1) Clausius-Clapeyron (C-C) relationship is the dominant mechanism of W non-periodic variability at multi-year time-scales; (2) C-C is not the dominant control of W, P or E non-periodic variability at time-scales below about 6 months, where the weather regime is approached and other mechanisms become important; (3) C-C is not a dominant control for P or E over land throughout the entire time-scale range considered. Furthermore, it is suggested that the atmosphere and oceans start to act as a single coupled system at time-scales > 1-2 years, while at time-scales < 6 months they are not the dominant drivers of each other. For global-ocean and full-globe averages, ρDCCA showed large spread of the C-C importance for P and E variability amongst different datasets at multi-year time-scales, ranging from negligible (< 0.3) to high ( 0.6-0.8) values. Hence, state-of-the-art climate datasets have significant uncertainties in the representation of macroweather precipitation and evaporation variability and its governing mechanisms.

Short-period cataclysmic variables at Observatorio Astronomico Nacional IA UNAM.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zharikov, S.

2014-03-01

We present results of time-resolved spectroscopy and photometry of faint (∼17-19 mag) Cataclysmic Variable stars with periods around the minimum orbital period (∼80 min). In this work we concentrated to our results of study of CVs systems which have evolved beyond the period minimum (so-called bounce-back systems). Using various instruments attached to 2.1m, 1.5m and 0.84m telescopes of OAN SPM of IA UNAM we explored conditions and structure of accretion disks in those short-period Cataclysmic Variables. We showed that the accretion disk in a system with an extremely low mass ratio (≤0.05) grows in the size reaching 2:1 resonance radius and is relatively cool. The disk in such systems also becomes largely optically thin in the continuum, contributing to the total flux less than the stellar components of the system. In contrast, the viscosity and the temperature in spiral arms formed at the outer edge of the disk are higher and their contribution in continuum plays an increasingly important role. We model such disks and generate light curves which successfully simulate the observed double-humped light curves in the quiescence. Thanks to support of our programs by the Time Allocation Commission of OAN SPM, the perfect astroclimate in the observatory, and the phase-locked method of spectroscopic observations, the significant progress in the study of bounce-back systems using a small size telescope was reached.

Weather extremes and the Romans - A marine palynological perspective on Italian temperature and precipitation between 200 BC and 500 AD

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zonneveld, Karin; Clotten, Caroline; Chen, Liang

2015-04-01

Sediments of a tephra-dated marine sediment core located at the distal part of the Po-river discharge plume (southern Italy) have been studied with a three annual resolution. Based on the variability in the dinoflagellate cyst content detailed reconstructions have been established of variability in precipitation related river discharge rates and local air temperature. Furthermore about the variability in distort water quality has been reconstructed. We show that both precipitation and temperature signals vary in tune with cyclic changes in solar insolation. On top of these cyclic changes, short term extremes in temperature and precipitation can be observed that can be interpreted to reflect periods of local weather extremes. Comparison of our reconstructions with historical information suggest that times of high temperatures and maximal precipitation corresponds to the period of maximal expansion of the Roman Empire. We have strong indications that at this time discharge waters might have contained higher nutrient concentrations compared to previous and later time intervals suggesting anthropogenic influence of the water quality. First pilot-results suggest that the decrease in temperature reconstructed just after the "Roman Optimum" corresponds to an increase in numbers of armored conflicts between the Roman and German cultures. Furthermore we observe a resemblance in timing of short-term intervals with cold weather spells during the early so called "Dark-Age-Period" to correspond to epidemic/pandemic events in Europe.

Effects of Meteorological Variability on the Thermosphere-Ionosphere System during the Moderate Geomagnetic Disturbed January 2013 Period As Simulated By Time-GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maute, A. I.; Hagan, M. E.; Richmond, A. D.; Liu, H.; Yudin, V. A.

2014-12-01

The ionosphere-thermosphere system is affected by solar and magnetospheric processes and by meteorological variability. Ionospheric observations of total electron content during the current solar cycle have shown that variability associated with meteorological forcing is important during solar minimum, and can have significant ionospheric effects during solar medium to maximum conditions. Numerical models can be used to study the comparative importance of geomagnetic and meterological forcing.This study focuses on the January 2013 Stratospheric Sudden Warming (SSW) period, which is associated with a very disturbed middle atmosphere as well as with moderately disturbed solar geomagntic conditions. We employ the NCAR Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIME-GCM) with a nudging scheme using Whole-Atmosphere-Community-Climate-Model-Extended (WACCM-X)/Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS5) results to simulate the effects of the meteorological and solar wind forcing on the upper atmosphere. The model results are evaluated by comparing with observations e.g., TEC, NmF2, ion drifts. We study the effect of the SSW on the wave spectrum, and the associated changes in the low latitude vertical drifts. These changes are compared to the impact of the moderate geomagnetic forcing on the TI-system during the January 2013 time period by conducting numerical experiments. We will present select highlights from our study and elude to the comparative importance of the forcing from above and below as simulated by the TIME-GCM.

Temporal dynamics of genetic variability in a mountain goat (Oreamnos americanus) population.

PubMed

Ortego, Joaquín; Yannic, Glenn; Shafer, Aaron B A; Mainguy, Julien; Festa-Bianchet, Marco; Coltman, David W; Côté, Steeve D

2011-04-01

The association between population dynamics and genetic variability is of fundamental importance for both evolutionary and conservation biology. We combined long-term population monitoring and molecular genetic data from 123 offspring and their parents at 28 microsatellite loci to investigate changes in genetic diversity over 14 cohorts in a small and relatively isolated population of mountain goats (Oreamnos americanus) during a period of demographic increase. Offspring heterozygosity decreased while parental genetic similarity and inbreeding coefficients (F(IS) ) increased over the study period (1995-2008). Immigrants introduced three novel alleles into the population and matings between residents and immigrants produced more heterozygous offspring than local crosses, suggesting that immigration can increase population genetic variability. The population experienced genetic drift over the study period, reflected by a reduced allelic richness over time and an 'isolation-by-time' pattern of genetic structure. The temporal decline of individual genetic diversity despite increasing population size probably resulted from a combination of genetic drift due to small effective population size, inbreeding and insufficient counterbalancing by immigration. This study highlights the importance of long-term genetic monitoring to understand how demographic processes influence temporal changes of genetic diversity in long-lived organisms. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Radio and γ -Ray Variability in the BL Lac PKS 0219−164: Detection of Quasi-periodic Oscillations in the Radio Light Curve

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bhatta, Gopal, E-mail: gopalbhatta716@gmail.com; Mt. Suhora Observatory, Pedagogical University, ul. Podchorazych 2, 30-084 Kraków

In this work, we explore the long-term variability properties of the blazar PKS 0219−164 in the radio and the γ -ray regime, utilizing the OVRO 15 GHz and the Fermi /LAT observations from the period 2008–2017. We found that γ -ray emission is more variable than the radio emission implying that γ -ray emission possibly originated in more compact regions while the radio emission represented continuum emission from the large-scale jets. Also, in the γ -ray, the source exhibited spectral variability, characterized by the softer-when-brighter trend, a less frequently observed feature in the high-energy emission by BL Lacs. In radio,more » using Lomb–Scargle periodogram and weighted wavelet z -transform, we detected a strong signal of quasi-periodic oscillation (QPO) with a periodicity of 270 ± 26 days with possible harmonics of 550 ± 42 and 1150 ± 157 day periods. At a time when detections of QPOs in blazars are still under debate, the observed QPO with high statistical significance (∼97%–99% global significance over underlying red-noise processes) and persistent over nearly 10 oscillations could make one of the strongest cases for the detection of QPOs in blazar light curves. We discuss various blazar models that might lead to the γ -ray and radio variability, QPO, and the achromatic behavior seen in the high-energy emission from the source.« less

A precursive study of the time-domain survey of the Galactic Anti-center using the Nanshan 1-meter telescope with variable stars detected

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Shu-Guo; Esamdin, Ali; Ma, Lu; Niu, Hu-Biao; Fu, Jian-Ning; Zhang, Yu; Liu, Jin-Zhong; Yang, Tao-Zhi; Song, Fang-Fang; Pu, Guang-Xin

2018-04-01

Following the LAMOST Spectroscopic Survey and the Xuyi's Photometric Survey of the Galactic Anti-center, we plan to carry out a time-domain survey of the Galactic Anti-center (TDS-GAC) to study variable stars by using the Nanshan 1-meter telescope. Before the beginning of TDS-GAC, a precursive sky survey (PSS) has been executed. The goal of the PSS is to optimize the observation strategy of TDS-GAC and to detect some strong transient events, as well as to find some short time-scale variable stars of different types. By observing a discontinuous sky area of 15.03 deg2 with the standard Johnson-Cousin-Bessel V filter, 48 variable stars are found and the time series are analyzed. Based on the behaviors of the light curves, 28 eclipsing binary stars, 10 RR Lyraes, 3 periodic pulsating variables of other types have been classified. The rest 7 variables stay unclassified with deficient data. In addition, the observation strategy of TD-GAC is described, and the pipeline of data reduction is tested.

Variable Stars in the Field of V729 Aql

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cagaš, P.

2017-04-01

Wide field instruments can be used to acquire light curves of tens or even hundreds of variable stars per night, which increases the probability of new discoveries of interesting variable stars and generally increases the efficiency of observations. At the same time, wide field instruments produce a large amount of data, which must be processed using advanced software. The traditional approach, typically used by amateur astronomers, requires an unacceptable amount of time needed to process each data set. New functionality, built into SIPS software package, can shorten the time needed to obtain light curves by several orders of magnitude. Also, newly introduced SILICUPS software is intended for post-processing of stored light curves. It can be used to visualize observations from many nights, to find variable star periods, evaluate types of variability, etc. This work provides an overview of tools used to process data from the large field of view around the variable star V729 Aql. and demonstrates the results.

Solar Cycle Variability and Surface Differential Rotation from Ca II K-line Time Series Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scargle, Jeffrey D.; Keil, Stephen L.; Worden, Simon P.

2013-07-01

Analysis of over 36 yr of time series data from the NSO/AFRL/Sac Peak K-line monitoring program elucidates 5 components of the variation of the 7 measured chromospheric parameters: (a) the solar cycle (period ~ 11 yr), (b) quasi-periodic variations (periods ~ 100 days), (c) a broadband stochastic process (wide range of periods), (d) rotational modulation, and (e) random observational errors, independent of (a)-(d). Correlation and power spectrum analyses elucidate periodic and aperiodic variation of these parameters. Time-frequency analysis illuminates periodic and quasi-periodic signals, details of frequency modulation due to differential rotation, and in particular elucidates the rather complex harmonic structure (a) and (b) at timescales in the range ~0.1-10 yr. These results using only full-disk data suggest that similar analyses will be useful for detecting and characterizing differential rotation in stars from stellar light curves such as those being produced by NASA's Kepler observatory. Component (c) consists of variations over a range of timescales, in the manner of a 1/f random process with a power-law slope index that varies in a systematic way. A time-dependent Wilson-Bappu effect appears to be present in the solar cycle variations (a), but not in the more rapid variations of the stochastic process (c). Component (d) characterizes differential rotation of the active regions. Component (e) is of course not characteristic of solar variability, but the fact that the observational errors are quite small greatly facilitates the analysis of the other components. The data analyzed in this paper can be found at the National Solar Observatory Web site http://nsosp.nso.edu/cak_mon/, or by file transfer protocol at ftp://ftp.nso.edu/idl/cak.parameters.

SOLAR CYCLE VARIABILITY AND SURFACE DIFFERENTIAL ROTATION FROM Ca II K-LINE TIME SERIES DATA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Scargle, Jeffrey D.; Worden, Simon P.; Keil, Stephen L.

Analysis of over 36 yr of time series data from the NSO/AFRL/Sac Peak K-line monitoring program elucidates 5 components of the variation of the 7 measured chromospheric parameters: (a) the solar cycle (period {approx} 11 yr), (b) quasi-periodic variations (periods {approx} 100 days), (c) a broadband stochastic process (wide range of periods), (d) rotational modulation, and (e) random observational errors, independent of (a)-(d). Correlation and power spectrum analyses elucidate periodic and aperiodic variation of these parameters. Time-frequency analysis illuminates periodic and quasi-periodic signals, details of frequency modulation due to differential rotation, and in particular elucidates the rather complex harmonic structuremore » (a) and (b) at timescales in the range {approx}0.1-10 yr. These results using only full-disk data suggest that similar analyses will be useful for detecting and characterizing differential rotation in stars from stellar light curves such as those being produced by NASA's Kepler observatory. Component (c) consists of variations over a range of timescales, in the manner of a 1/f random process with a power-law slope index that varies in a systematic way. A time-dependent Wilson-Bappu effect appears to be present in the solar cycle variations (a), but not in the more rapid variations of the stochastic process (c). Component (d) characterizes differential rotation of the active regions. Component (e) is of course not characteristic of solar variability, but the fact that the observational errors are quite small greatly facilitates the analysis of the other components. The data analyzed in this paper can be found at the National Solar Observatory Web site http://nsosp.nso.edu/cak{sub m}on/, or by file transfer protocol at ftp://ftp.nso.edu/idl/cak.parameters.« less

Chromospheric Variability: Analysis of 36 years of Time Series from the National Solar Observatory/Sacramento Peak Ca II K-line Monitoring Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scargle, Jeffrey D.; Keil, Stephen L.; Worden, Simon P.

2014-01-01

Analysis of more than 36 years of time series of seven parameters measured in the NSO/AFRL/Sac Peak K-line monitoring program elucidates five elucidates five components of the variation: (1) the solar cycle (period approx. 11 years), (2) quasi-periodic variations (periods approx 100 days), (3) a broad band stochastic process (wide range of periods), (4) rotational modulation, and (5) random observational errors. Correlation and power spectrum analyses elucidate periodic and aperiodic variation of the chromospheric parameters. Time-frequency analysis illuminates periodic and quasi periodic signals, details of frequency modulation due to differential rotation, and in particular elucidates the rather complex harmonic structure (1) and (2) at time scales in the range approx 0.1 - 10 years. These results using only full-disk data further suggest that similar analyses will be useful at detecting and characterizing differential rotation in stars from stellar light-curves such as those being produced by NASA's Kepler observatory. Component (3) consists of variations over a range of timescales, in the manner of a 1/f random noise process. A timedependent Wilson-Bappu effect appears to be present in the solar cycle variations (1), but not in the stochastic process (3). Component (4) characterizes differential rotation of the active regions, and (5) is of course not characteristic of solar variability, but the fact that the observational errors are quite small greatly facilitates the analysis of the other components. The recent data suggest that the current cycle is starting late and may be relatively weak. The data analyzed in this paper can be found at the National Solar Observatory web site http://nsosp.nso.edu/cak_mon/, or by file transfer protocol at ftp://ftp.nso.edu/idl/cak.parameters.

A precipitation regionalization and regime for Iran based on multivariate analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raziei, Tayeb

2018-02-01

Monthly precipitation time series of 155 synoptic stations distributed over Iran, covering 1990-2014 time period, were used to identify areas with different precipitation time variability and regimes utilizing S-mode principal component analysis (PCA) and cluster analysis (CA) preceded by T-mode PCA, respectively. Taking into account the maximum loading values of the rotated components, the first approach revealed five sub-regions characterized by different precipitation time variability, while the second method delineated eight sub-regions featured with different precipitation regimes. The sub-regions identified by the two used methods, although partly overlapping, are different considering their areal extent and complement each other as they are useful for different purposes and applications. Northwestern Iran and the Caspian Sea area were found as the two most distinctive Iranian precipitation sub-regions considering both time variability and precipitation regime since they were well captured with relatively identical areas by the two used approaches. However, the areal extents of the other three sub-regions identified by the first approach were not coincident with the coverage of their counterpart sub-regions defined by the second approach. Results suggest that the precipitation sub-region identified by the two methods would not be necessarily the same, as the first method which accounts for the variance of the data grouped stations with similar temporal variability while the second one which considers a fixed climatology defined by the average over the period 1990-2014 clusters stations having a similar march of monthly precipitation.

Two bodies with high eccentricity around the cataclysmic variable QS Vir

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Almeida, Leonardo A.; Jablonski, Francisco

2011-11-01

QS Vir is an eclipsing cataclysmic variable with 3.618 hrs orbital period. This system has the interesting characteristics that it does not show mass transfer between the components through the L1 Lagrangian point and shows a complex orbital period variation history. Qian et al. (2010) associated the orbital period variations to the presence of a giant planet in the system plus angular momentum loss via magnetic braking. Parsons et al. (2010) obtained new eclipse timings and observed that the orbital period variations associated to a hypothetical giant planet disagree with their measurements and concluded that the decrease in orbital period is part of a cyclic variation with period ~16 yrs. In this work, we present 28 new eclipse timings of QS Vir and suggest that the orbital period variations can be explained by a model with two circumbinary bodies. The best fitting gives the lower limit to the masses M1 sin(i) ~ 0.0086 M⊙ and M2 sin(i) ~ 0.054 M⊙ orbital periods P1 ~ 14.4 yrs and P2 ~ 16.99 yrs, and eccentricities e1 ~ 0.62 and e2~0.92 for the two external bodies. Under the assumption of coplanarity among the two external bodies and the inner binary, we obtain a giant planet with ~0.009 M⊙ and a brown dwarf with ~ 0.056 M⊙ around the eclipsing binary QS Vir.

Var C: Long-term photometric and spectral variability of a luminous blue variable in M 33

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burggraf, B.; Weis, K.; Bomans, D. J.; Henze, M.; Meusinger, H.; Sholukhova, O.; Zharova, A.; Pellerin, A.; Becker, A.

2015-09-01

Aims: So far the highly unstable phase of luminous blue variables (LBVs) has not been understood well. It is still uncertain why and which massive stars enter this phase. Investigating the variabilities by looking for a possible regular or even (semi-)periodic behaviour could give a hint at the underlying mechanism for these variations and might answer the question of where these variabilities originate. Finding out more about the LBV phase also means understanding massive stars better in general, which have (e.g. by enriching the ISM with heavy elements, providing ionising radiation and kinetic energy) a strong and significant influence on the ISM, hence also on their host galaxy. Methods: Photometric and spectroscopic data were taken for the LBV Var C in M 33 to investigate its recent status. In addition, scanned historic plates, archival data, and data from the literature were gathered to trace Var C's behaviour in the past. Its long-term variability and periodicity was investigated. Results: Our investigation of the variability indicates possible (semi-)periodic behaviour with a period of 42.3 years for Var C. That Var C's light curve covers a time span of more than 100 years means that more than two full periods of the cycle are visible. The critical historic maximum around 1905 is less strong but discernible even with the currently rare historic data. The semi-periodic and secular structure of the light curve is similar to the one of LMC R71. Both light curves hint at a new aspect in the evolution of LBVs. Based on observations collected at the Thüringer Landessternwarte (TLS) Tautenburg.Based on observations collected at the Centro Astronómico Hispano Alemán (CAHA) at Calar Alto, operated jointly by the Max-Planck Institut für Astronomie and the Instituto de Astrofísica de Andalucía (CSIC).Tables 2-4, and 6 are available in electronic form at http://www.aanda.org

Simulation of electricity demand in a remote island for optimal planning of a hybrid renewable energy system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koskinas, Aristotelis; Zacharopoulou, Eleni; Pouliasis, George; Engonopoulos, Ioannis; Mavroyeoryos, Konstantinos; Deligiannis, Ilias; Karakatsanis, Georgios; Dimitriadis, Panayiotis; Iliopoulou, Theano; Koutsoyiannis, Demetris; Tyralis, Hristos

2017-04-01

We simulate the electrical energy demand in the remote island of Astypalaia. To this end we first obtain information regarding the local socioeconomic conditions and energy demand. Secondly, the available hourly demand data are analysed at various time scales (hourly, weekly, daily, seasonal). The cross-correlations between the electrical energy demand and the mean daily temperature as well as other climatic variables for the same time period are computed. Also, we investigate the cross-correlation between those climatic variables and other variables related to renewable energy resources from numerous observations around the globe in order to assess the impact of each one to a hybrid renewable energy system. An exploratory data analysis including all variables is performed with the purpose to find hidden relationships. Finally, the demand is simulated considering all the periodicities found in the analysis. The simulation time series will be used in the development of a framework for planning of a hybrid renewable energy system in Astypalaia. Acknowledgement: This research is conducted within the frame of the undergraduate course "Stochastic Methods in Water Resources" of the National Technical University of Athens (NTUA). The School of Civil Engineering of NTUA provided moral support for the participation of the students in the Assembly.

The frequency response of a coupled ice sheet-ice shelf-ocean system to climate forcing variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldberg, D.; Snow, K.; Jordan, J. R.; Holland, P.; Arthern, R. J.

2017-12-01

Changes at the West Antarctic ice-ocean boundary in recent decades has triggered significant increases in the regions contribution to global sea-level rise, coincident with large scale, and in some cases potentially unstable, grounding line retreat. Much of the induced change is thought to be driven by fluctuations in the oceanic heat available at the ice-ocean boundary, transported on-shelf via warm Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW). However, the processes in which ocean heat drives ice-sheet loss remains poorly understood, with observational studies routinely hindered by the extreme environment notorious to the Antarctic region. In this study we apply a novel synchronous coupled ice-ocean model, developed within the MITgcm, and are thus able to provide detailed insight into the impacts of short time scale (interannual to decadal) climate variability and feedbacks within the ice-ocean system. Feedbacks and response are assessed in an idealised ice-sheet/ocean-cavity configuration in which the far field ocean condition is adjusted to emulate periodic climate variability patterns. We reveal a non-linear response of the ice-sheet to periodic variations in thermocline depth. These non-linearities illustrate the heightened sensitivity of fast flowing ice-shelves to periodic perturbations in heat fluxes occurring at interannual and decadal time scales. The results thus highlight how small perturbations in variable climate forcing, like that of ENSO, may trigger large changes in ice-sheet response.

Information transfer across the scales of climate data variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palus, Milan; Jajcay, Nikola; Hartman, David; Hlinka, Jaroslav

2015-04-01

Multitude of scales characteristic of the climate system variability requires innovative approaches in analysis of instrumental time series. We present a methodology which starts with a wavelet decomposition of a multi-scale signal into quasi-oscillatory modes of a limited band-with, described using their instantaneous phases and amplitudes. Then their statistical associations are tested in order to search for interactions across time scales. In particular, an information-theoretic formulation of the generalized, nonlinear Granger causality is applied together with surrogate data testing methods [1]. The method [2] uncovers causal influence (in the Granger sense) and information transfer from large-scale modes of climate variability with characteristic time scales from years to almost a decade to regional temperature variability on short time scales. In analyses of daily mean surface air temperature from various European locations an information transfer from larger to smaller scales has been observed as the influence of the phase of slow oscillatory phenomena with periods around 7-8 years on amplitudes of the variability characterized by smaller temporal scales from a few months to annual and quasi-biennial scales [3]. In sea surface temperature data from the tropical Pacific area an influence of quasi-oscillatory phenomena with periods around 4-6 years on the variability on and near the annual scale has been observed. This study is supported by the Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic within the Program KONTAKT II, Project No. LH14001. [1] M. Palus, M. Vejmelka, Phys. Rev. E 75, 056211 (2007) [2] M. Palus, Entropy 16(10), 5263-5289 (2014) [3] M. Palus, Phys. Rev. Lett. 112, 078702 (2014)

Temporal Variability of Upper-level Winds at the Eastern Range, Western Range and Wallops Flight Facility

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Decker, Ryan K.; Barbre, Robert E., Jr.

2014-01-01

Space launch vehicles incorporate upper-level wind profiles to determine wind effects on the vehicle and for a commit to launch decision. These assessments incorporate wind profiles measured hours prior to launch and may not represent the actual wind the vehicle will fly through. Uncertainty in the upper-level winds over the time period between the assessment and launch can be mitigated by a statistical analysis of wind change over time periods of interest using historical data from the launch range. Five sets of temporal wind pairs at various times (.75, 1.5, 2, 3 and 4-hrs) at the Eastern Range, Western Range and Wallops Flight Facility were developed for use in upper-level wind assessments. Database development procedures as well as statistical analysis of temporal wind variability at each launch range will be presented.

Spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation and stream flow variations in Tigris-Euphrates river basin.

PubMed

Daggupati, Prasad; Srinivasan, Raghavan; Ahmadi, Mehdi; Verma, Deepa

2017-01-01

Tigris and Euphrates river basin (TERB) is one of the largest river basins in the Middle East, and the precipitation (in the form of snowfall) is a major source of streamflow. This study investigates the spatial and temporal variability of precipitation and streamflow in TERB to better understand the hydroclimatic variables and how they varied over time. The precipitation shows a decreasing trend with 1980s being wetter and 2000s being drier. A total of 55 and 40% reduction in high flows in Tigris and Euphrates rivers at T20 and E3 was seen in post-reservoir period. A lag time of 3 to 4 and 5 to 6 months was estimated between peak snowfall and runoff time periods. Decreasing precipitation and streamflow along with several planned dams could hamper the sustainability of several Mesopotamian marshlands that completely depend on the water from the Tigris and Euphrates rivers.

Latent class instrumental variables: a clinical and biostatistical perspective.

PubMed

Baker, Stuart G; Kramer, Barnett S; Lindeman, Karen S

2016-01-15

In some two-arm randomized trials, some participants receive the treatment assigned to the other arm as a result of technical problems, refusal of a treatment invitation, or a choice of treatment in an encouragement design. In some before-and-after studies, the availability of a new treatment changes from one time period to this next. Under assumptions that are often reasonable, the latent class instrumental variable (IV) method estimates the effect of treatment received in the aforementioned scenarios involving all-or-none compliance and all-or-none availability. Key aspects are four initial latent classes (sometimes called principal strata) based on treatment received if in each randomization group or time period, the exclusion restriction assumption (in which randomization group or time period is an instrumental variable), the monotonicity assumption (which drops an implausible latent class from the analysis), and the estimated effect of receiving treatment in one latent class (sometimes called efficacy, the local average treatment effect, or the complier average causal effect). Since its independent formulations in the biostatistics and econometrics literatures, the latent class IV method (which has no well-established name) has gained increasing popularity. We review the latent class IV method from a clinical and biostatistical perspective, focusing on underlying assumptions, methodological extensions, and applications in our fields of obstetrics and cancer research. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

“Skill of Generalized Additive Model to Detect PM2.5 Health ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Summary. Measures of health outcomes are collinear with meteorology and air quality, making analysis of connections between human health and air quality difficult. The purpose of this analysis was to determine time scales and periods shared by the variables of interest (and by implication scales and periods that are not shared). Hospital admissions, meteorology (temperature and relative humidity), and air quality (PM2.5 and daily maximum ozone) for New York City during the period 2000-2006 were decomposed into temporal scales ranging from 2 days to greater than two years using a complex wavelet transform. Health effects were modeled as functions of the wavelet components of meteorology and air quality using the generalized additive model (GAM) framework. This simulation study showed that GAM is extremely successful at extracting and estimating a health effect embedded in a dataset. It also shows that, if the objective in mind is to estimate the health signal but not to fully explain this signal, a simple GAM model with a single confounder (calendar time) whose smooth representation includes a sufficient number of constraints is as good as a more complex model.Introduction. In the context of wavelet regression, confounding occurs when two or more independent variables interact with the dependent variable at the same frequency. Confounding also acts on a variety of time scales, changing the PM2.5 coefficient (magnitude and sign) and its significance ac

Automated classification of periodic variable stars detected by the wide-field infrared survey explorer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Masci, Frank J.; Grillmair, Carl J.; Cutri, Roc M.

2014-07-01

We describe a methodology to classify periodic variable stars identified using photometric time-series measurements constructed from the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) full-mission single-exposure Source Databases. This will assist in the future construction of a WISE Variable Source Database that assigns variables to specific science classes as constrained by the WISE observing cadence with statistically meaningful classification probabilities. We have analyzed the WISE light curves of 8273 variable stars identified in previous optical variability surveys (MACHO, GCVS, and ASAS) and show that Fourier decomposition techniques can be extended into the mid-IR to assist with their classification. Combined with other periodicmore » light-curve features, this sample is then used to train a machine-learned classifier based on the random forest (RF) method. Consistent with previous classification studies of variable stars in general, the RF machine-learned classifier is superior to other methods in terms of accuracy, robustness against outliers, and relative immunity to features that carry little or redundant class information. For the three most common classes identified by WISE: Algols, RR Lyrae, and W Ursae Majoris type variables, we obtain classification efficiencies of 80.7%, 82.7%, and 84.5% respectively using cross-validation analyses, with 95% confidence intervals of approximately ±2%. These accuracies are achieved at purity (or reliability) levels of 88.5%, 96.2%, and 87.8% respectively, similar to that achieved in previous automated classification studies of periodic variable stars.« less

A simple physical model for deep moonquake occurrence times

USGS Publications Warehouse

Weber, R.C.; Bills, B.G.; Johnson, C.L.

2010-01-01

The physical process that results in moonquakes is not yet fully understood. The periodic occurrence times of events from individual clusters are clearly related to tidal stress, but also exhibit departures from the temporal regularity this relationship would seem to imply. Even simplified models that capture some of the relevant physics require a large number of variables. However, a single, easily accessible variable - the time interval I(n) between events - can be used to reveal behavior not readily observed using typical periodicity analyses (e.g., Fourier analyses). The delay-coordinate (DC) map, a particularly revealing way to display data from a time series, is a map of successive intervals: I(n+. 1) plotted vs. I(n). We use a DC approach to characterize the dynamics of moonquake occurrence. Moonquake-like DC maps can be reproduced by combining sequences of synthetic events that occur with variable probability at tidal periods. Though this model gives a good description of what happens, it has little physical content, thus providing only little insight into why moonquakes occur. We investigate a more mechanistic model. In this study, we present a series of simple models of deep moonquake occurrence, with consideration of both tidal stress and stress drop during events. We first examine the behavior of inter-event times in a delay-coordinate context, and then examine the output, in that context, of a sequence of simple models of tidal forcing and stress relief. We find, as might be expected, that the stress relieved by moonquakes influences their occurrence times. Our models may also provide an explanation for the opposite-polarity events observed at some clusters. ?? 2010.

Spatial and temporal variability of cv. Tempranillo phenology and grape quality within the Ribera del Duero DO (Spain) and relationships with climate.

PubMed

Ramos, M C; Jones, G V; Yuste, J

2015-12-01

The aim of this work was to analyze spatial phenology and grape quality variability related to the climatic characteristics within the Ribera del Duero Designation of Origin (DO). Twenty plots planted with cv. Tempranillo and distributed within the DO were analyzed for phenology from 2004 to 2013. Grape quality parameters at ripening (berry weight, sugar content, acidity and pH, and anthocyanins) were analyzed in 26 plots for the period 2003-2013. The relationships between phenology and grape parameters with different climatic variables were confirmed with a multivariate analysis. On average, bud break was April 27(th), bloom June 17(th), and veraison August 12th. However, phenology during the time period showed high variability, with differences between years of up to 21 days for a phenology stage. The earliest dates were observed in dry years (2005, 2006, and to a lesser degree in 2009) while the later phenology dates occurred in the wettest year of the period (2008). High correlations were found between veraison date and temperature variables as well as with precipitation-evapotranspiration recorded during the bloom-veraison period. These effects tended to be higher in the central part of the DO. Grape quality parameters also showed high variability among the dry and the wet years, and the influence of extreme temperatures on color development as well as the effect of available water on acidity were observed.

Spatial and temporal variability of cv. Tempranillo phenology and grape quality within the Ribera del Duero DO (Spain) and relationships with climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramos, M. C.; Jones, G. V.; Yuste, J.

2015-12-01

The aim of this work was to analyze spatial phenology and grape quality variability related to the climatic characteristics within the Ribera del Duero Designation of Origin (DO). Twenty plots planted with cv. Tempranillo and distributed within the DO were analyzed for phenology from 2004 to 2013. Grape quality parameters at ripening (berry weight, sugar content, acidity and pH, and anthocyanins) were analyzed in 26 plots for the period 2003-2013. The relationships between phenology and grape parameters with different climatic variables were confirmed with a multivariate analysis. On average, bud break was April 27th, bloom June 17th, and veraison August 12th. However, phenology during the time period showed high variability, with differences between years of up to 21 days for a phenology stage. The earliest dates were observed in dry years (2005, 2006, and to a lesser degree in 2009) while the later phenology dates occurred in the wettest year of the period (2008). High correlations were found between veraison date and temperature variables as well as with precipitation-evapotranspiration recorded during the bloom-veraison period. These effects tended to be higher in the central part of the DO. Grape quality parameters also showed high variability among the dry and the wet years, and the influence of extreme temperatures on color development as well as the effect of available water on acidity were observed.

Timing and Variability of Postpartum Sleep in Relation to Daytime Performance

PubMed Central

McBean, Amanda L.; Montgomery-Downs, Hawley E.

2013-01-01

Postpartum women have highly disturbed sleep, also known as sleep fragmentation. Fragmentation extends their total sleep period, also disrupting sleep timing. A stable and earlier sleep period among non-postpartum populations are related to better performance, physical health, and mental health. However, sleep timing has not been examined among postpartum women who are also vulnerable to daytime impairment. The study objective was to examine how the timing and regularity of sleep during the early postpartum period are related to daytime functioning across postpartum weeks 2-13. In this field-based study, 71 primiparous women wore an actigraph, a small wrist-worn device that monitors sleep and sleep timing, for the 12-week study period. Mothers self-administered a 5-minute psychomotor vigilance test (PVT) each morning to evaluate the number of >500ms response lapses. They also completed a Morningness-Eveningness scale at the beginning of the study to identify chronotype. After controlling for maternal age, earlier sleep timing was associated with significantly fewer PVT lapses at postpartum weeks 9,12; a more stable sleep midpoint was associated with significantly fewer PVT lapses at postpartum weeks 2,5-13. Earlier sleep midpoints were related to more stable sleep midpoints at postpartum week 2 and a morning-type chronotype. An earlier sleep midpoint was also associated with a reduced slope of worsening PVT lapses across weeks. Across the first 12 postpartum weeks, women with earlier or more stable sleep periods had less daytime impairment than women with later or more variable sleep midpoints. Postpartum women with earlier sleep midpoints also showed less severe decrements in performance across time, which has been attributed to cumulative impacts of sleep disturbance. These data suggest the sleep period, in addition to sleep duration and fragmentation, should be more closely examined, particularly among vulnerable women, as it may affect the neurobehavioral performance of new mothers. PMID:24041725

D/H Ratios From Sierra Nevada Varved Lake Sediments Record Decadal Hydroclimate Variability During The Medieval Period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roach, L. D.; Cayan, D. R.; Sessions, A. L.; Charles, C. D.; Anderson, R. S.

2009-12-01

Assessment of the risks of persistent drought requires multiple realizations of decadal and centennial scale hydroclimate variability that extend beyond the relatively short period of instrumental record. Much remains to be learned about the so called “mega droughts” in the Sierra Nevada Mountains, where various lines of evidence point toward the occurrence of severe, decades-long droughts during Medieval times, approximately 900-1400 AD. Here we present a continuous, decadal scale record of hydroclimate variability in the Sierra Nevada Mountains that extends through the heart of the purported Medieval mega droughts. Previous work on the stable hydrogen isotope (D/H) ratios of refractory plant lipid compounds stored in lake sediments demonstrated that these compounds reflect the D/H values of lake water and/or shallow ground water--reservoirs both fed by local precipitation. Lake sediment D/H can therefore reflect the processes that determine D/H of precipitation, including temperature, humidity and moisture source. We have measured D/H of aquatic and terrestrial plant fatty acids extracted from a suite of sediment cores collected at Swamp Lake (elevation: 1554m), in Yosemite National Park, along the Sierra Nevada crest. Measurements with biennial resolution were made for two time periods: the 20th century and the 13th-15th centuries. D/H fluctuations in 20th century sediment contain relatively strong decadal structure. Comparison with instrumentally recorded climate variability reveals that lower D/H concentrations are associated with years of higher than normal annual precipitation, cooler than normal wintertime temperatures, and positive April 1 Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) anomalies throughout the Sierra Nevada, (and conversely for elevated D/H concentrations). The range of variability is approximately 50‰. These associations may be driven by the variable mass-balance impact of evaporation on the isotopic composition of lake water and shallow groundwater in the Swamp Lake watershed, depending on the extent to which these reservoirs are replenished seasonally by wintertime precipitation. Throughout the Medieval period, we observe significant (>30‰), reproducible D/H variability that also fluctuates on multi-year to decadal time scales, with mean values falling within the same range as those recorded over the 20th century. Strong covariance among the aquatic and terrestrial plant fatty acids analyzed, along with the mean values, lends confidence that primary isotopic signatures have been retained. These results can therefore be compared directly to other measures of hydroclimate variability throughout the last millennium, offering a unique new perspective on the mega-drought intervals.

Projected heat-related mortality under climate change in the metropolitan area of Skopje.

PubMed

Martinez, Gerardo Sanchez; Baccini, Michela; De Ridder, Koen; Hooyberghs, Hans; Lefebvre, Wouter; Kendrovski, Vladimir; Scott, Kristen; Spasenovska, Margarita

2016-05-16

Excessive summer heat is a serious environmental health problem in Skopje, the capital and largest city of the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. This paper attempts to forecast the impact of heat on mortality in Skopje in two future periods under climate change and compare it with a historical baseline period. After ascertaining the relationship between daily mean ambient air temperature and daily mortality in Skopje, we modelled the evolution of ambient temperatures in the city under a Representative Concentration Pathway scenario (RCP8.5) and the evolution of the city population in two future time periods: 2026-2045 and 2081-2100, and in a past time period (1986-2005) to serve as baseline for comparison. We then calculated the projected average annual mortality attributable to heat in the absence of adaptation or acclimatization during those time windows, and evaluated the contribution of each source of uncertainty on the final impact. Our estimates suggest that, compared to the baseline period (1986-2005), heat-related mortality in Skopje would more than double in 2026-2045, and more than quadruple in 2081-2100. When considering the impact in 2081-2100, sampling variability around the heat-mortality relationship and climate model explained 40.3 and 46.6 % of total variability. These results highlight the importance of a long-term perspective in the public health prevention of heat exposure, particularly in the context of a changing climate.

HydroClimATe: hydrologic and climatic analysis toolkit

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dickinson, Jesse; Hanson, Randall T.; Predmore, Steven K.

2014-01-01

The potential consequences of climate variability and climate change have been identified as major issues for the sustainability and availability of the worldwide water resources. Unlike global climate change, climate variability represents deviations from the long-term state of the climate over periods of a few years to several decades. Currently, rich hydrologic time-series data are available, but the combination of data preparation and statistical methods developed by the U.S. Geological Survey as part of the Groundwater Resources Program is relatively unavailable to hydrologists and engineers who could benefit from estimates of climate variability and its effects on periodic recharge and water-resource availability. This report documents HydroClimATe, a computer program for assessing the relations between variable climatic and hydrologic time-series data. HydroClimATe was developed for a Windows operating system. The software includes statistical tools for (1) time-series preprocessing, (2) spectral analysis, (3) spatial and temporal analysis, (4) correlation analysis, and (5) projections. The time-series preprocessing tools include spline fitting, standardization using a normal or gamma distribution, and transformation by a cumulative departure. The spectral analysis tools include discrete Fourier transform, maximum entropy method, and singular spectrum analysis. The spatial and temporal analysis tool is empirical orthogonal function analysis. The correlation analysis tools are linear regression and lag correlation. The projection tools include autoregressive time-series modeling and generation of many realizations. These tools are demonstrated in four examples that use stream-flow discharge data, groundwater-level records, gridded time series of precipitation data, and the Multivariate ENSO Index.

Species interactions may help explain the erratic periodicity of whooping cough dynamics.

PubMed

Bhattacharyya, Samit; Ferrari, Matthew J; Bjørnstad, Ottar N

2017-12-14

Incidence of whooping cough exhibits variable dynamics across time and space. The periodicity of this disease varies from annual to five years in different geographic regions in both developing and developed countries. Many hypotheses have been put forward to explain this variability such as nonlinearity and seasonality, stochasticity, variable recruitment of susceptible individuals via birth, immunization, and immune boosting. We propose an alternative hypothesis to describe the variability in periodicity - the intricate dynamical variability of whooping cough may arise from interactions between its dominant etiological agents of Bordetella pertussis and Bordetella parapertussis. We develop a two-species age-structured model, where two pathogens are allowed to interact by age-dependent convalescence of individuals with severe illness from infections. With moderate strength of interactions, the model exhibits multi-annual coexisting attractors that depend on the R 0 of the two pathogens. We also examine how perturbation from case importation and noise in transmission may push the system from one dynamical regime to another. The coexistence of multi-annual cycles and the behavior of switching between attractors suggest that variable dynamics of whopping cough could be an emergent property of its multi-agent etiology. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Long-term Photometric Variability in Kepler Full-frame Images: Magnetic Cycles of Sun–like Stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montet, Benjamin T.; Tovar, Guadalupe; Foreman-Mackey, Daniel

2017-12-01

Photometry from the Kepler mission is optimized to detect small, short-duration signals like planet transits at the expense of long-term trends. This long-term variability can be recovered in photometry from the full-frame images (FFIs), a set of calibration data collected approximately monthly during the Kepler mission. Here we present f3, an open-source package to perform photometry on the Kepler FFIs in order to detect changes in the brightness of stars in the Kepler field of view over long time baselines. We apply this package to a sample of 4000 Sun–like stars with measured rotation periods. We find that ≈10% of these targets have long-term variability in their observed flux. For the majority of targets, we find that the luminosity variations are either correlated or anticorrelated with the short-term variability due to starspots on the stellar surface. We find a transition between anticorrelated (starspot-dominated) variability and correlated (facula-dominated) variability between rotation periods of 15 and 25 days, suggesting the transition between the two modes is complete for stars at the age of the Sun. We also identify a sample of stars with apparently complete cycles, as well as a collection of short-period binaries with extreme photometric variation over the Kepler mission.

Environmental correlates of upstream migration of yellow-phase American eels in the Potomac River drainage

USGS Publications Warehouse

Welsh, Stuart A.; Heather L. Liller,

2013-01-01

Assessing the relationships between upstream migration and environmental variables is important to understanding the ecology of yellow-phase American Eels Anguilla rostrata. During an American Eel migration study within the lower Shenandoah River (Potomac River drainage), we counted and measured American Eels at the Millville Dam eel ladder for three periods: 14 May–23 July 2004, 7–30 September 2004, and 1 June–31 July 2005. Using generalized estimating equations, we modeled each time series of daily American Eel counts by fitting time-varying environmental covariates of lunar illumination (LI), river discharge (RD), and water temperature (WT), including 1-d and 2-d lags of each covariate. Information-theoretic approaches were used for model selection and inference. A total of 4,847 American Eels (19–74 cm total length) used the ladder during the three periods, including 2,622 individuals during a 2-d span following a hurricane-induced peak in river discharge. Additive-effects models of RD + WT, a 2-d lag of LI + RD, and LI + RD were supported for the three periods, respectively. Parameter estimates were positive for river discharge for each time period, negative for lunar illumination for two periods and positive for water temperature during one period. Additive-effects models supported synergistic influences of environmental variables on the upstream migration of yellow-phase American Eels, although river discharge was consistently supported as an influential correlate of upstream migration.

The Effect of Intensified Language Exposure on Accommodating Talker Variability

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Antoniou, Mark; Wong, Patrick C. M.; Wang, Suiping

2015-01-01

Purpose: This study systematically examined the role of intensified exposure to a second language on accommodating talker variability. Method: English native listeners (n = 37) were compared with Mandarin listeners who had either lived in the United States for an extended period of time (n = 33) or had lived only in China (n = 44). Listeners…

VizieR Online Data Catalog: BI light curves of DDO210 pulsating variables (Ordonez+, 2016)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ordonez, A. J.; Sarajedini, A.

2016-07-01

The data set used by Cole et al. (2014ApJ...794...64M) is very deep and covers a time baseline conducive to identifying short-period variable stars. These observations of DDO210 were originally intended for use in a detailed SFH analysis for this dwarf, and thus cover a significant portion of the galaxy while reaching photometric depths to the main-sequence turnoff. The observations consisting of 22920s in F475W and 33480s in F814W were taken with a cadence well suited for identifying short-period variable stars. We retrieved these images from the Mikulski Archive for Space Telescopes (MAST) for use in our study. (2 data files).

Zooplankton time-series in the Balearic Sea (Western Mediterranean): Variability during the decade 1994 2003

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernández de Puelles, Maria Luz; Alemany, Francisco; Jansá, Javier

2007-08-01

Studies of plankton time-series from the Balearic islands waters are presented for the past decade, with main emphasis on the variability of zooplankton and how it relates to the environment. The seasonal and interannual patterns of temperature, salinity, nutrients, chlorophyll concentration and zooplankton abundance are described with data obtained between 1994 and 2003. Samples were collected every 10 days at a monitoring station in the Mallorca channel, an area with marked hydrographic variability in the Western Mediterranean. Mesoscale variability was also assessed using data from monthly sampling survey carried out between 1994 and 1999 in a three station transect located in the same study area. The copepods were the most abundant group with three higher peaks (March, May and September) distinguished during the annual cycle and a clear coastal-offshore decreasing gradient. Analysis of the zooplankton community revealed two distinct periods: the mixing period during winter and early spring, where copepods, siphonophores and ostracods were most abundant and, the stratified period characterised by an increase of cladocerans and meroplankton abundances. Remarkable interannual zooplankton variability was observed in relation to hydrographic regime with higher abundances of main groups during cool years, when northern Mediterranean waters prevailed in the area. The warmer years showed the lowest zooplankton abundances, associated with the inflow of less saline and nutrient-depleted Atlantic Waters. Moreover, the correlation found between copepod abundance and large scale climatic factors (e.g., NAO) suggested that they act as main driver of the zooplankton variability. Therefore, the seasonal but particularly the interannual variation observed in plankton abundance and structure patterns of the Balearic Sea seems to be highly modulated by large-scale forcing and can be considered an ideal place where to investigate potential consequences of global climate change.

Long-term stability of diurnal salivary cortisol and alpha-amylase secretion patterns.

PubMed

Skoluda, Nadine; La Marca, Roberto; Gollwitzer, Mario; Müller, Andreas; Limm, Heribert; Marten-Mittag, Birgitt; Gündel, Harald; Angerer, Peter; Nater, Urs M

2017-06-01

This study aimed to investigate long-term stability and variability of diurnal cortisol and alpha-amylase patterns. Diurnal cortisol and alpha-amylase secretion patterns were assessed on a single workday with three waves of measurement across a total time period of 24months in 189 participants. Separate hierarchical linear models were analyzed, with and without a number of potential predictor variables (age, BMI, smoking, chronic stress, stress reactivity). While low long-term stability was found in diurnal cortisol, the stability of diurnal alpha-amylase was moderate across the time period of 24months. Several predictor variables had a positive impact on diurnal cortisol and alpha-amylase secretion patterns averaged across waves. Our findings underpin the notion that long-term stability is not necessarily warranted in longitudinal studies. It is important to choose an appropriate study design when attempting to disentangle clinically and biologically relevant changes from naturally occurring variations in diurnal cortisol and alpha-amylase. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Analysis of monthly, winter, and annual temperatures in Zagreb, Croatia, from 1864 to 2010: the 7.7-year cycle and the North Atlantic Oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sen, Asok K.; Ogrin, Darko

2016-02-01

Long instrumental records of meteorological variables such as temperature and precipitation are very useful for studying regional climate in the past, present, and future. They can also be useful for understanding the influence of large-scale atmospheric circulation processes on the regional climate. This paper investigates the monthly, winter, and annual temperature time series obtained from the instrumental records in Zagreb, Croatia, for the period 1864-2010. Using wavelet analysis, the dominant modes of variability in these temperature series are identified, and the time intervals over which these modes may persist are delineated. The results reveal that all three temperature records exhibit low-frequency variability with a dominant periodicity at around 7.7 years. The 7.7-year cycle has also been observed in the temperature data recorded at several other stations in Europe, especially in Northern and Western Europe, and may be linked to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and/or solar/geomagnetic activity.

Spectral and Timing States in Black Hole Binaries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilms, J.

Results on the long term variability of galactic black hole candidates are reviewed. I mainly present the results of a > 2 year long campaign with RXTE to monitor the canonical soft state black hole candidates LMC X-1 and LMC X-3 using monthly observations. These observations are presented within the context of the RXTE-ASM long term quasi-periodic variability on timescales of about 150d. For LMC X-3, times of low ASM count rate are correlated with a significant hardening of the X-ray spectrum. The observation with the lowest flux during the whole monitoring campaign can be modeled with a simple γ=1.7 power law -- a hard state spectrum. Since these spectral hardenings occur on the 150 d timescale it is probable that they are associated with periodic changes in the accretion rate. Possible causes for this behavior are discussed, e.g. a wind driven limit-cycle or long-term variability of the donor star.

[Previous abstinence time as a predictive factor at 12 months follow-up in a multi-component smoking cessation program].

PubMed

Moreno-Arnedillo, J J; Morante-Benadero, M E; Sánchez-Vegazo-Sánchez, E

2014-01-01

The objective of this study is to analyze the length of the longest period of previous abstinence time as a predictor of the results of a smoking cessation program at 12 months follow-up. A cross-sectional study was conducted on a sample of 475 smokers who had participated in a multi-component smoking cessation group therapy program. The independent variable is the longest abstinence time passed, measured in weeks, before the current treatment. Success was defined as self-reported abstinence. Bivariate analyses were applied to the independent variable and to other variables in order to determine the factors that would be part of a logistic regression model using contrasts Student t or χ(2) comparisons, as appropriate. Those that showed statistical significance were entered into a multivariate logistic regression model. Within the studied variables, previous abstinence time and sex were the only predictive variables of success at 12 month follow-up. The probability of being abstinent at 12 months follow-up was significantly associated with the length of the previous longest period of abstinence, and this is the best of the predictors considered. Successful cessation programs depend more on the relationship with the consumer biographical aspects than with biological factors. The history of previous attempts is a more valuable source of information for designing treatments than others traditionally considered. Copyright © 2013 Sociedad Española de Médicos de Atención Primaria (SEMERGEN). Publicado por Elsevier España. All rights reserved.

Highly variable recurrence of tsunamis in the 7,400 years before the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horton, B.; Rubin, C. M.; Sieh, K.; Jessica, P.; Daly, P.; Ismail, N.; Parnell, A. C.

2017-12-01

The devastating 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami caught millions of coastal residents and the scientific community off-guard. Subsequent research in the Indian Ocean basin has identified prehistoric tsunamis, but the timing and recurrence intervals of such events are uncertain. Here, we identify coastal caves as a new depositional environment for reconstructing tsunami records and present a 5,000 year record of continuous tsunami deposits from a coastal cave in Sumatra, Indonesia which shows the irregular recurrence of 11 tsunamis between 7,400 and 2,900 years BP. The data demonstrates that the 2004 tsunami was just the latest in a sequence of devastating tsunamis stretching back to at least the early Holocene and suggests a high likelihood for future tsunamis in the Indian Ocean. The sedimentary record in the cave shows that ruptures of the Sunda megathrust vary between large (which generated the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami) and smaller slip failures. The chronology of events suggests the recurrence of multiple smaller tsunamis within relatively short time periods, interrupted by long periods of strain accumulation followed by giant tsunamis. The average time period between tsunamis is about 450 years with intervals ranging from a long, dormant period of over 2,000 years, to multiple tsunamis within the span of a century. The very long dormant period suggests that the Sunda megathrust is capable of accumulating large slip deficits between earthquakes. Such a high slip rupture would produce a substantially larger earthquake than the 2004 event. Although there is evidence that the likelihood of another tsunamigenic earthquake in Aceh province is high, these variable recurrence intervals suggest that long dormant periods may follow Sunda Megathrust ruptures as large as that of 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. The remarkable variability of recurrence suggests that regional hazard mitigation plans should be based upon the high likelihood of future destructive tsunami demonstrated by the cave record and other paleotsunami sites, rather than estimates of recurrence intervals.

Investigating the Contribution of Climate Variables to Estimates of Net Primary Productivity in a Tropical Ecosystem in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tripathi, P.; Behera, M. D.; Behera, S. K.; Sahu, N.

2016-12-01

Investigating the impact of climate variables on net primary productivity is crucial to evaluate the ecosystem health and the status of forest type response to climate change. The objective of this paper is (1) to analyze the spatio-temporal pattern of net primary productivity (NPP) in a tropical forest ecosystem situated along the Himalayan foothills in India and (2) to investigate the continuous and delayed effects of climatic variables. Weapplied simple Monteith equation based Light use efficiency model for two dominant plant functional types; sal (Shorea robusta) forest and teak (Tectona grandis) plantation to estimate the NPP for a decadal period from 2001 to 2010. The impact of climate variables on NPP for these 10 years was seen by applying two correlation analyses; generalized linear modelling (GLM) and time lag correlation approach.The impact of different climate variables was observed to vary throughout the study period.A decline in mean NPP during 2002-2003, 2005 and 2008 to 2010 could be attributed to drought, increased vapour pressure deficit, and decreased humidity and solar radiation. In time lag correlation analysis, precipitation and humidity were observed to be the major variables affecting NPP; whereas combination of temperature, humidity and VPD showed dominant effect on NPP in GLM. Shorea robusta forest showed slightly higher NPP than that of Tectona grandis plantation throughout the study period. Highest decrease in NPP was observed during 2010,pertaining to lower solar radiation, humidity and precipitation along with increased VPD.Higher gains in NPP by sal during all years indicates their better adaptability to climate compared to teak. Contribution of different climatic variables through some link process is revealed in statistical analysis clearly indicates the co-dominance of all the variables in explaining NPP. Lacking of site specific meteorological observations and microclimate put constraint on broad level analyses.

Sensitivity of the interannual variability of mineral aerosol simulations to meteorological forcing dataset

DOE PAGES

Smith, Molly B.; Mahowald, Natalie M.; Albani, Samuel; ...

2017-03-07

Interannual variability in desert dust is widely observed and simulated, yet the sensitivity of these desert dust simulations to a particular meteorological dataset, as well as a particular model construction, is not well known. Here we use version 4 of the Community Atmospheric Model (CAM4) with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) to simulate dust forced by three different reanalysis meteorological datasets for the period 1990–2005. We then contrast the results of these simulations with dust simulated using online winds dynamically generated from sea surface temperatures, as well as with simulations conducted using other modeling frameworks but the same meteorological forcings, in order tomore » determine the sensitivity of climate model output to the specific reanalysis dataset used. For the seven cases considered in our study, the different model configurations are able to simulate the annual mean of the global dust cycle, seasonality and interannual variability approximately equally well (or poorly) at the limited observational sites available. Altogether, aerosol dust-source strength has remained fairly constant during the time period from 1990 to 2005, although there is strong seasonal and some interannual variability simulated in the models and seen in the observations over this time period. Model interannual variability comparisons to observations, as well as comparisons between models, suggest that interannual variability in dust is still difficult to simulate accurately, with averaged correlation coefficients of 0.1 to 0.6. Because of the large variability, at least 1 year of observations at most sites are needed to correctly observe the mean, but in some regions, particularly the remote oceans of the Southern Hemisphere, where interannual variability may be larger than in the Northern Hemisphere, 2–3 years of data are likely to be needed.« less

Oscillations and trends of river discharge in the southern Central Andes and linkages with climate variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castino, Fabiana; Bookhagen, Bodo; Strecker, Manfred R.

2017-12-01

This study analyzes the discharge variability of small to medium drainage basins (102-104 km2) in the southern Central Andes of NW Argentina. The Hilbert-Huang Transform (HHT) was applied to evaluate non-stationary oscillatory modes of variability and trends, based on four time series of monthly-normalized discharge anomaly between 1940 and 2015. Statistically significant trends reveal increasing discharge during the past decades and document an intensification of the hydrological cycle during this period. An Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) analysis revealed that discharge variability in this region can be best described by five quasi-periodic statistically significant oscillatory modes, with mean periods varying from 1 to ∼20 y. Moreover, we show that discharge variability is most likely linked to the phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) at multi-decadal timescales (∼20 y) and, to a lesser degree, to the Tropical South Atlantic SST anomaly (TSA) variability at shorter timescales (∼2-5 y). Previous studies highlighted a rapid increase in discharge in the southern Central Andes during the 1970s, inferred to have been associated with the global 1976-77 climate shift. Our results suggest that the rapid discharge increase in the NW Argentine Andes coincides with the periodic enhancement of discharge, which is mainly linked to a negative to positive transition of the PDO phase and TSA variability associated with a long-term increasing trend. We therefore suggest that variations in discharge in this region are largely driven by both natural variability and the effects of global climate change. We furthermore posit that the links between atmospheric and hydrologic processes result from a combination of forcings that operate on different spatiotemporal scales.

Prediction, time variance, and classification of hydraulic response to recharge in two karst aquifers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Long, Andrew J.; Mahler, Barbara J.

2013-01-01

Many karst aquifers are rapidly filled and depleted and therefore are likely to be susceptible to changes in short-term climate variability. Here we explore methods that could be applied to model site-specific hydraulic responses, with the intent of simulating these responses to different climate scenarios from high-resolution climate models. We compare hydraulic responses (spring flow, groundwater level, stream base flow, and cave drip) at several sites in two karst aquifers: the Edwards aquifer (Texas, USA) and the Madison aquifer (South Dakota, USA). A lumped-parameter model simulates nonlinear soil moisture changes for estimation of recharge, and a time-variant convolution model simulates the aquifer response to this recharge. Model fit to data is 2.4% better for calibration periods than for validation periods according to the Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency, which ranges from 0.53 to 0.94 for validation periods. We use metrics that describe the shapes of the impulse-response functions (IRFs) obtained from convolution modeling to make comparisons in the distribution of response times among sites and between aquifers. Time-variant IRFs were applied to 62% of the sites. Principal component analysis (PCA) of metrics describing the shapes of the IRFs indicates three principal components that together account for 84% of the variability in IRF shape: the first is related to IRF skewness and temporal spread and accounts for 51% of the variability; the second and third largely are related to time-variant properties and together account for 33% of the variability. Sites with IRFs that dominantly comprise exponential curves are separated geographically from those dominantly comprising lognormal curves in both aquifers as a result of spatial heterogeneity. The use of multiple IRF metrics in PCA is a novel method to characterize, compare, and classify the way in which different sites and aquifers respond to recharge. As convolution models are developed for additional aquifers, they could contribute to an IRF database and a general classification system for karst aquifers.

FO Aqr time-series observations requested

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Waagen, Elizabeth O.

2016-07-01

Dr. Colin Littlefield (University of Notre Dame) and colleagues Drs. Peter Garnavich (Notre Dame), Erin Aadland (Minnesota State), and Mark Kennedy (University College Cork) have requested AAVSO assistance in monitoring the intermediate polar cataclysmic variable FO Aqr beginning immediately. Littlefield, who with his colleagues recently published ATel #9216 and #9225, writes: "This system is in a faint state for the first time in its observational record, implying a dropoff in the mass-transfer rate. AAVSO observations contributed by Shawn Dvorak [the only observer following FO Aqr at the time] were particularly helpful in detecting this low state. Since early May, the system has recovered to V 15, but it is still well below its normal brightness. In addition, our time-series photometry shows a very strong 11.26-minute photometric period. By contrast, during its bright state, FO Aqr's light curve is dominated by a 20.9-minute period, corresponding with the spin period of the white dwarf. We interpret our observations as evidence that the system's accretion processes have changed dramatically as a result of the reduced mass-transfer rate. We have...determined that...[the 11.26-min] periodicity is dependent on the orbital phase of the binary. The 11.26-min period is dominant for about half of the orbit, but for the other half, a 22.5-min period is stronger. AAVSO observers can help us study both of these periods as well as their dependence on the orbital phase. We are particularly interested in any changes in this behavior as the system continues to brighten...Time-series photometry of FO Aqr [is requested] in order to better study the evolution of the 11.26-minute period as the system rebrightens. Unfiltered photometry reduced with a V zeropoint would be the most useful to us...A cadence of less than 60 seconds per image is important, given the brevity of these periods (especially the 11.26-min period). Finder charts with sequence may be created using the AAVSO Variable Star Plotter (https://www.aavso.org/vsp). Observations should be submitted to the AAVSO International Database. See full Alert Notice for more details.

A Systematic Search for Short-term Variability of EGRET Sources

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wallace, P. M.; Griffis, N. J.; Bertsch, D. L.; Hartman, R. C.; Thompson, D. J.; Kniffen, D. A.; Bloom, S. D.

2000-01-01

The 3rd EGRET Catalog of High-energy Gamma-ray Sources contains 170 unidentified sources, and there is great interest in the nature of these sources. One means of determining source class is the study of flux variability on time scales of days; pulsars are believed to be stable on these time scales while blazers are known to be highly variable. In addition, previous work has demonstrated that 3EG J0241-6103 and 3EG J1837-0606 are candidates for a new gamma-ray source class. These sources near the Galactic plane display transient behavior but cannot be associated with any known blazers. Although, many instances of flaring AGN have been reported, the EGRET database has not been systematically searched for occurrences of short-timescale (approximately 1 day) variability. These considerations have led us to conduct a systematic search for short-term variability in EGRET data, covering all viewing periods through proposal cycle 4. Six 3EG catalog sources are reported here to display variability on short time scales; four of them are unidentified. In addition, three non-catalog variable sources are discussed.

The Magnitude of Trial-By-Trial Neural Variability Is Reproducible over Time and across Tasks in Humans.

PubMed

Arazi, Ayelet; Gonen-Yaacovi, Gil; Dinstein, Ilan

2017-01-01

Numerous studies have shown that neural activity in sensory cortices is remarkably variable over time and across trials even when subjects are presented with an identical repeating stimulus or task. This trial-by-trial neural variability is relatively large in the prestimulus period and considerably smaller (quenched) following stimulus presentation. Previous studies have suggested that the magnitude of neural variability affects behavior such that perceptual performance is better on trials and in individuals where variability quenching is larger. To what degree are neural variability magnitudes of individual subjects flexible or static? Here, we used EEG recordings from adult humans to demonstrate that neural variability magnitudes in visual cortex are remarkably consistent across different tasks and recording sessions. While magnitudes of neural variability differed dramatically across individual subjects, they were surprisingly stable across four tasks with different stimuli, temporal structures, and attentional/cognitive demands as well as across experimental sessions separated by one year. These experiments reveal that, in adults, neural variability magnitudes are mostly solidified individual characteristics that change little with task or time, and are likely to predispose individual subjects to exhibit distinct behavioral capabilities.

Heisenberg (and Schrödinger, and Pauli) on hidden variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bacciagaluppi, Guido; Crull, Elise

In this paper, we discuss various aspects of Heisenberg's thought on hidden variables in the period 1927-1935. We also compare Heisenberg's approach to others current at the time, specifically that embodied by von Neumann's impossibility proof, but also views expressed mainly in correspondence by Pauli and by Schrödinger. We shall base ourselves mostly on published and unpublished materials that are known but little-studied, among others Heisenberg's own draft response to the EPR paper. Our aim will be not only to clarify Heisenberg's thought on the hidden-variables question, but in part also to clarify how this question was understood more generally at the time.

The enigmatic WR46: A binary or a pulsator in disguise. II. The spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Veen, P. M.; van Genderen, A. M.; Crowther, P. A.; van der Hucht, K. A.

2002-04-01

We present spectroscopic monitoring of the Wolf-Rayet (WR) star WR 46 between 1989 and 1998, which has been obtained simultaneously with multicolour photometry (Veen et al. \\cite{Veen02a}, Paper I). The spectroscopic monitoring data show that the radiative fluxes of the optical emission lines (O Vi 3811/34, O Vi 5290, N V 4944, N V 4604/20, He Ii 4686, He Ii 4859, He Ii 5411, He Ii 6560) vary in concert with the photometric single-wave (sw) frequency f_sw (Paper I), and also the difference of that period between 1989 and 1991. The line-flux variability does not provide obvious support for a short second period (Paper I). The radial-velocity variations show a remarkable behaviour: usually, they display a coherent single-wave on the time scale of the double-wave period, while during some nights the radial velocity appears surprisingly to stay constant (see also Marchenko et al. \\cite{Marchenko00}). These so-called stand-stills may be related to the observed time-delay effects. A time-delay effect manifests itself in several phenomena. Firstly, the line flux shows small, but persistent, time-delays for lines originating from lower optical depths, the outer-wind lines (N V 4604/20 and He Ii). Secondly, the radial-velocity variations display much larger time-delays than the line fluxes and their behaviour appears less consistent. Assuming that the double-wave period controls the radial velocity, the stand-still is observed to start when the radial motion is in anti-phase with the presumed orbital motion. Thirdly, the outer-wind lines are observed to enter a stand-still much later than the inner-wind lines. Fourthly, the radial-velocity variations of the peaks of the emission lines precede the radial-velocity variations of the wings of those lines. In addition to line-flux- and radial-velocity variability, the He Ii 4686 emission line shows pronounced line-profile changes on a time scale of hours. Our monitoring is not sufficient to study this in detail. Furthermore, we discern a flaring behaviour, i.e., an emission bump appeared on the blue wing of two He Ii-lines (around -1700 km s-1) lasting less than 5 min. Finally, the line fluxes follow the observed brightenings, also on a time scale of years. We conclude that the short-term cyclic variability confirms the WR nature as established from the WR standard model analysis by Crowther et al. (\\cite{Crowther95}; hereafter referred to as CSH). The various time-delay effects are consistent with the formation of the spectrum in a stratified stellar wind. The outer layers trail the inner ones. The variability is inconsistent with the formation of the spectrum in a stellar disc as proposed by Niemela et al. (\\cite{Niemela95}) and Steiner & Diaz (\\cite{Steiner98}). The long-term cyclic variability of the brightness and line fluxes is related to an increase of the mass-loss-rate, and, possibly, to the period changes. The interpretation of the nature of the variability is deferred to Veen et al. (\\cite{Veen02b}, Paper III). Based on observations collected at the European Southern Observatory (ESO), La Silla, Chile.

An Experimental Investigation of Infiltration in a Shallow Karst System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bellin, A.; Becker, M. W.; Borsato, A.

2008-12-01

We present preliminary results of a field investigation of infiltration in a karst terrain in the Dolomiti del Brenta ridge, North-East Italy. A sub-horizontal cave 40 m deep drains a small catchment of about 6,000 m2 at the elevation of 2,600 m a.s.l. in a fractured triassic dolomite formation. The surface is characterized by a thin soil cover, vertical fractures, and karst collapse features (dolines). Water infiltrates through the dolines and vertical shafts which are connected to an unsaturated cave system. Within the cave, water discharge, temperature, and electric conductivity are recorded. Meterological conditions were measured at a weather station installed within the cave contributing area. Furthermore, in order to study residence time distribution in the summer 2007 we conducted a tracer experiment by injecting fluorescein in one of the dolines and recording its concentration within the cave. The recorded time series are statistically non-stationary with a wavelet spectrum strongly variable in time. However, a closer inspection of the water discharge wavelet spectrum reveals three periods in which the local power spectrum is nearly time invariant: November-April, April -July and August-October. In the first period we observe a slow exponential decline of the water discharge. The season is dominated by release of water from subsurface storage, in absence of surface input. In the second period, the system is dominated by snowmelt with a time lag that reduces from 9 hours to 1 hour through the melting season. The variation in time apparently corresponds with reduction in snowpack thickness. In the final period, the system is dominated by rainfall. The lag time in this period is on the order of 1 hour or less. These results suggest that in this hydrologic system the distribution of the residence time, and thus the transfer function relating input to output signals, is not state invariant, as typically assumed in applications. Rather, hydraulic residence time is seasonally variable and linked to both surface and subsurface hydrologic conditions.

Exploring the crowded central region of ten Galactic globular clusters using EMCCDs. Variable star searches and new discoveries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Figuera Jaimes, R.; Bramich, D. M.; Skottfelt, J.; Kains, N.; Jørgensen, U. G.; Horne, K.; Dominik, M.; Alsubai, K. A.; Bozza, V.; Calchi Novati, S.; Ciceri, S.; D'Ago, G.; Galianni, P.; Gu, S.-H.; Harpsøe, K. B. W.; Haugbølle, T.; Hinse, T. C.; Hundertmark, M.; Juncher, D.; Korhonen, H.; Mancini, L.; Popovas, A.; Rabus, M.; Rahvar, S.; Scarpetta, G.; Schmidt, R. W.; Snodgrass, C.; Southworth, J.; Starkey, D.; Street, R. A.; Surdej, J.; Wang, X.-B.; Wertz, O.

2016-04-01

Aims: We aim to obtain time-series photometry of the very crowded central regions of Galactic globular clusters; to obtain better angular resolution thanhas been previously achieved with conventional CCDs on ground-based telescopes; and to complete, or improve, the census of the variable star population in those stellar systems. Methods: Images were taken using the Danish 1.54-m Telescope at the ESO observatory at La Silla in Chile. The telescope was equipped with an electron-multiplying CCD, and the short-exposure-time images obtained (ten images per second) were stacked using the shift-and-add technique to produce the normal-exposure-time images (minutes). Photometry was performed via difference image analysis. Automatic detection of variable stars in the field was attempted. Results: The light curves of 12 541 stars in the cores of ten globular clusters were statistically analysed to automatically extract the variable stars. We obtained light curves for 31 previously known variable stars (3 long-period irregular, 2 semi-regular, 20 RR Lyrae, 1 SX Phoenicis, 3 cataclysmic variables, 1 W Ursae Majoris-type and 1 unclassified) and we discovered 30 new variables (16 long-period irregular, 7 semi-regular, 4 RR Lyrae, 1 SX Phoenicis and 2 unclassified). Fluxes and photometric measurements for these stars are available in electronic form through the Strasbourg astronomical Data Center. Based on data collected by the MiNDSTEp team with the Danish 1.54m telescope at ESO's La Silla observatory in Chile.Full Table 1 is only available at CDS via anonymous ftp to http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr (ftp://130.79.128.5) or via http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr/viz-bin/qcat?J/A+A/588/A128

Inter-annual and spatial variability in hillslope runoff and mercury flux during spring snowmelt.

PubMed

Haynes, Kristine M; Mitchell, Carl P J

2012-08-01

Spring snowmelt is an important period of mercury (Hg) export from watersheds. Limited research has investigated the potential effects of climate variability on hydrologic and Hg fluxes during spring snowmelt. The purpose of this research was to assess the potential impacts of inter-annual climate variability on Hg mobility in forested uplands, as well as spatial variability in hillslope hydrology and Hg fluxes. We compared hydrological flows, Hg and solute mobility from three adjacent hillslopes in the S7 watershed of the Marcell Experimental Forest, Minnesota during two very different spring snowmelt periods: one following a winter (2009-2010) with severely diminished snow accumulation (snow water equivalent (SWE) = 48 mm) with an early melt, and a second (2010-2011) with significantly greater winter snow accumulation (SWE = 98 mm) with average to late melt timing. Observed inter-annual differences in total Hg (THg) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) yields were predominantly flow-driven, as the proportion by which solute yields increased was the same as the increase in runoff. Accounting for inter-annual differences in flow, there was no significant difference in THg and DOC export between the two snowmelt periods. The spring 2010 snowmelt highlighted the important contribution of melting soil frost in the timing of a considerable portion of THg exported from the hillslope, accounting for nearly 30% of the THg mobilized. Differences in slope morphology and soil depths to the confining till layer were important in controlling the large observed spatial variability in hydrological flowpaths, transmissivity feedback responses, and Hg flux trends across the adjacent hillslopes.

Remembrance of ecohydrologic extremes past

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Band, L. E.; Hwang, T.

2013-12-01

Ecohydrological systems operate at time scales that span several orders of magnitude. Significant processes and feedbacks range from subdaily physiologic response to meteorological drivers, to soil forming and geomorphic processes ranging up through 10^3-10^4 years. While much attention in ecohydrology has focused on ecosystem optimization paradigms, these systems can show significant transience in structure and function, with apparent memory of hydroclimate extremes and regime shifts. While optimization feedbacks can be reconciled with system transience, a better understanding of the time scales and mechanisms of adjustment to increased hydroclimate variability and to specific events is required to understand and predict dynamics and vulnerability of ecosystems. Under certain circumstances of slowly varying hydroclimate, we hypothesize that ecosystems can remain adjusted to changing climate regimes, without displaying apparent system memory. Alternatively, rapid changes in hydroclimate and increased hydroclimate variability, amplified with well expressed non-linearity in the processes controlling feedbacks between water, carbon and nutrients, can move ecosystems far from adjusted states. The Coweeta Hydrological Laboratory is typical of humid, broadleaf forests in eastern North America, with a range of forest biomes from northern hardwoods at higher elevations, to oak-pine assemblages at lower elevations. The site provides almost 80 years of rainfall-runoff records for a set of watersheds under different management, along with multi-decadal forest plot structural information, soil moisture conditions and stream chemistry. An initial period of multi-decadal cooling, was followed by three decades of warming and increased hydroclimate variability. While mean temperature has risen over this time period, precipitation shows no long term trends in the mean, but has had a significant rise in variability with repeated extreme drought and wet periods. Over this latter period, intra and interannual shifts of canopy structure and phenology are discernable, along with long term canopy adjustment. We use a combination of field observations, long term remote sensing records and distributed ecohydrological modeling to investigate transient behavior, apparent memory and mechanisms of ecosystem adjustment to hydroclimate variability and change over the range of biomes in the watershed.

Highly variable recurrence of tsunamis in the 7,400 years before the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami

PubMed Central

Rubin, Charles M.; Horton, Benjamin P.; Sieh, Kerry; Pilarczyk, Jessica E.; Daly, Patrick; Ismail, Nazli; Parnell, Andrew C.

2017-01-01

The devastating 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami caught millions of coastal residents and the scientific community off-guard. Subsequent research in the Indian Ocean basin has identified prehistoric tsunamis, but the timing and recurrence intervals of such events are uncertain. Here we present an extraordinary 7,400 year stratigraphic sequence of prehistoric tsunami deposits from a coastal cave in Aceh, Indonesia. This record demonstrates that at least 11 prehistoric tsunamis struck the Aceh coast between 7,400 and 2,900 years ago. The average time period between tsunamis is about 450 years with intervals ranging from a long, dormant period of over 2,000 years, to multiple tsunamis within the span of a century. Although there is evidence that the likelihood of another tsunamigenic earthquake in Aceh province is high, these variable recurrence intervals suggest that long dormant periods may follow Sunda megathrust ruptures as large as that of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. PMID:28722009

Highly variable recurrence of tsunamis in the 7,400 years before the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami.

PubMed

Rubin, Charles M; Horton, Benjamin P; Sieh, Kerry; Pilarczyk, Jessica E; Daly, Patrick; Ismail, Nazli; Parnell, Andrew C

2017-07-19

The devastating 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami caught millions of coastal residents and the scientific community off-guard. Subsequent research in the Indian Ocean basin has identified prehistoric tsunamis, but the timing and recurrence intervals of such events are uncertain. Here we present an extraordinary 7,400 year stratigraphic sequence of prehistoric tsunami deposits from a coastal cave in Aceh, Indonesia. This record demonstrates that at least 11 prehistoric tsunamis struck the Aceh coast between 7,400 and 2,900 years ago. The average time period between tsunamis is about 450 years with intervals ranging from a long, dormant period of over 2,000 years, to multiple tsunamis within the span of a century. Although there is evidence that the likelihood of another tsunamigenic earthquake in Aceh province is high, these variable recurrence intervals suggest that long dormant periods may follow Sunda megathrust ruptures as large as that of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami.

Satellite Observations of Antarctic Sea Ice Thickness and Volume

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kurtz, Nathan; Markus, Thorsten

2012-01-01

We utilize satellite laser altimetry data from ICESat combined with passive microwave measurements to analyze basin-wide changes in Antarctic sea ice thickness and volume over a 5 year period from 2003-2008. Sea ice thickness exhibits a small negative trend while area increases in the summer and fall balanced losses in thickness leading to small overall volume changes. Using a five year time-series, we show that only small ice thickness changes of less than -0.03 m/yr and volume changes of -266 cu km/yr and 160 cu km/yr occurred for the spring and summer periods, respectively. The calculated thickness and volume trends are small compared to the observational time period and interannual variability which masks the determination of long-term trend or cyclical variability in the sea ice cover. These results are in stark contrast to the much greater observed losses in Arctic sea ice volume and illustrate the different hemispheric changes of the polar sea ice covers in recent years.

On the orbital period of the magnetic cataclysmic variable HU Aquarii

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vogel, J.; Schwope, A.; Schwarz, R.; Kanbach, G.; Dhillon, V. S.; Marsh, T. R.

2008-02-01

We present an analysis of ULTRACAM light curves of the magnetic cataclysmic variable HU Aquarii which were taken at the VLT in May 2005. Since the light curves were serendipitously obtained during a low state, they allowed us to determine the binary and the stellar parameters with high accuracy. The light curve was decomposed into the components originating from the accretion spot, the photosphere surrounding it and the white dwarf itself, which allowed us to extract the eclipse light curve for the pure white dwarf. Combined with high-time resolution observations with different instruments over a 12 year baseline it was possible to get exact eclipse timings of the white dwarf and thus establish a significant deviation from a linear ephemeris. If described by a quadratic term, the period decreases by -1.13×10-11 ss-1. Interpreting this change in period as a pure angular momentum loss (AML) effect, the rate of J˙ = -4.9×1035 erg is much too high to be explained by gravitational radiation alone.

An analysis of the AVE-SESAME I period using statistical structure and correlation functions. [Atmospheric Variability Experiment-Severe Environmental Storm and Mesoscale Experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fuelberg, H. E.; Meyer, P. J.

1984-01-01

Structure and correlation functions are used to describe atmospheric variability during the 10-11 April day of AVE-SESAME 1979 that coincided with the Red River Valley tornado outbreak. The special mesoscale rawinsonde data are employed in calculations involving temperature, geopotential height, horizontal wind speed and mixing ratio. Functional analyses are performed in both the lower and upper troposphere for the composite 24 h experiment period and at individual 3 h observation times. Results show that mesoscale features are prominent during the composite period. Fields of mixing ratio and horizontal wind speed exhibit the greatest amounts of small-scale variance, whereas temperature and geopotential height contain the least. Results for the nine individual times show that small-scale variance is greatest during the convective outbreak. The functions also are used to estimate random errors in the rawinsonde data. Finally, sensitivity analyses are presented to quantify confidence limits of the structure functions.

Highly variable recurrence of tsunamis in the 7,400 years before the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rubin, Charles M.; Horton, Benjamin P.; Sieh, Kerry; Pilarczyk, Jessica E.; Daly, Patrick; Ismail, Nazli; Parnell, Andrew C.

2017-07-01

The devastating 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami caught millions of coastal residents and the scientific community off-guard. Subsequent research in the Indian Ocean basin has identified prehistoric tsunamis, but the timing and recurrence intervals of such events are uncertain. Here we present an extraordinary 7,400 year stratigraphic sequence of prehistoric tsunami deposits from a coastal cave in Aceh, Indonesia. This record demonstrates that at least 11 prehistoric tsunamis struck the Aceh coast between 7,400 and 2,900 years ago. The average time period between tsunamis is about 450 years with intervals ranging from a long, dormant period of over 2,000 years, to multiple tsunamis within the span of a century. Although there is evidence that the likelihood of another tsunamigenic earthquake in Aceh province is high, these variable recurrence intervals suggest that long dormant periods may follow Sunda megathrust ruptures as large as that of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami.

Elevated temperature alters the lunar timing of Planulation in the brooding coral Pocillopora damicornis.

PubMed

Crowder, Camerron M; Liang, Wei-Lo; Weis, Virginia M; Fan, Tung-Yung

2014-01-01

Reproductive timing in corals is associated with environmental variables including temperature, lunar periodicity, and seasonality. Although it is clear that these variables are interrelated, it remains unknown if one variable in particular acts as the proximate signaler for gamete and or larval release. Furthermore, in an era of global warming, the degree to which increases in ocean temperatures will disrupt normal reproductive patterns in corals remains unknown. Pocillopora damicornis, a brooding coral widely distributed in the Indo-Pacific, has been the subject of multiple reproductive ecology studies that show correlations between temperature, lunar periodicity, and reproductive timing. However, to date, no study has empirically measured changes in reproductive timing associated with increased seawater temperature. In this study, the effect of increased seawater temperature on the timing of planula release was examined during the lunar cycles of March and June 2012. Twelve brooding corals were removed from Hobihu reef in Nanwan Bay, southern Taiwan and placed in 23 and 28°C controlled temperature treatment tanks. For both seasons, the timing of planulation was found to be plastic, with the high temperature treatment resulting in significantly earlier peaks of planula release compared to the low temperature treatment. This suggests that temperature alone can influence the timing of larval release in Pocillopora damicornis in Nanwan Bay. Therefore, it is expected that continued increases in ocean temperature will result in earlier timing of reproductive events in corals, which may lead to either variations in reproductive success or phenotypic acclimatization.

Elevated Temperature Alters the Lunar Timing of Planulation in the Brooding Coral Pocillopora damicornis

PubMed Central

Crowder, Camerron M.; Liang, Wei-Lo; Weis, Virginia M.; Fan, Tung-Yung

2014-01-01

Reproductive timing in corals is associated with environmental variables including temperature, lunar periodicity, and seasonality. Although it is clear that these variables are interrelated, it remains unknown if one variable in particular acts as the proximate signaler for gamete and or larval release. Furthermore, in an era of global warming, the degree to which increases in ocean temperatures will disrupt normal reproductive patterns in corals remains unknown. Pocillopora damicornis, a brooding coral widely distributed in the Indo-Pacific, has been the subject of multiple reproductive ecology studies that show correlations between temperature, lunar periodicity, and reproductive timing. However, to date, no study has empirically measured changes in reproductive timing associated with increased seawater temperature. In this study, the effect of increased seawater temperature on the timing of planula release was examined during the lunar cycles of March and June 2012. Twelve brooding corals were removed from Hobihu reef in Nanwan Bay, southern Taiwan and placed in 23 and 28°C controlled temperature treatment tanks. For both seasons, the timing of planulation was found to be plastic, with the high temperature treatment resulting in significantly earlier peaks of planula release compared to the low temperature treatment. This suggests that temperature alone can influence the timing of larval release in Pocillopora damicornis in Nanwan Bay. Therefore, it is expected that continued increases in ocean temperature will result in earlier timing of reproductive events in corals, which may lead to either variations in reproductive success or phenotypic acclimatization. PMID:25329546

Modeling the response of a standard accretion disc to stochastic viscous fluctuations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmad, Naveel; Misra, Ranjeev; Iqbal, Naseer; Maqbool, Bari; Hamid, Mubashir

2018-01-01

The observed variability of X-ray binaries over a wide range of time-scales can be understood in the framework of a stochastic propagation model, where viscous fluctuations at different radii induce accretion rate variability that propagate inwards to the X-ray producing region. The scenario successfully explains the power spectra, the linear rms-flux relation as well as the time-lag between different energy photons. The predictions of this model have been obtained using approximate analytical solutions or empirically motivated models which take into account the effect of these propagating variability on the radiative process of complex accretion flows. Here, we study the variation of the accretion rate due to such viscous fluctuations using a hydro-dynamical code for the standard geometrically thin, gas pressure dominated α-disc with a zero torque boundary condition. Our results confirm earlier findings that the time-lag between a perturbation and the resultant inner accretion rate variation depends on the frequency (or time-period) of the perturbation. Here we have quantified that the time-lag tlag ∝f-0.54 , for time-periods less than the viscous time-scale of the perturbation radius and is nearly constant otherwise. This, coupled with radiative process would produce the observed frequency dependent time-lag between different energy bands. We also confirm that if there are random Gaussian fluctuations of the α-parameter at different radii, the resultant inner accretion rate has a power spectrum which is a power-law.

Ring Current He Ion Control by Bounce Resonant ULF Waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Hyomin; Gerrard, Andrew J.; Lanzerotti, Louis J.; Soto-Chavez, Rualdo; Cohen, Ross J.; Manweiler, Jerry W.

2017-12-01

Ring current energy He ion (˜65 keV to ˜520 keV) differential flux data from the Radiation Belt Storm Probe Ion Composition Experiment (RBSPICE) instrument aboard the Van Allan Probes spacecraft show considerable variability during quiet solar wind and geomagnetic time periods. Such variability is apparent from orbit to orbit (˜9 h) of the spacecraft and is observed to be ˜50-100% of the nominal flux. Using data from the Electric and Magnetic Field Instrument Suite and Integrated Science (EMFISIS) instrument, also aboard the Van Allen Probes spacecraft, we identify that a dominant source of this variability is from ULF waveforms with periods of tens of seconds. These periods correspond to the bounce resonant timescales of the ring current He ions being measured by RBSPICE. A statistical survey using the particle and field data for one full spacecraft precession period (approximately 2 years) shows that the wave and He ion flux variations are generally anticorrelated, suggesting the bounce resonant pitch angle scattering process as a major component in the scattering of He ions.

HS 0139+0559, HS 0229+8016, HS 0506+7725, and HS 0642+5049: four new long-period cataclysmic variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aungwerojwit, A.; Gänsicke, B. T.; Rodríguez-Gil, P.; Hagen, H.-J.; Harlaftis, E. T.; Papadimitriou, C.; Lehto, H.; Araujo-Betancor, S.; Heber, U.; Fried, R. E.; Engels, D.; Katajainen, S.

2005-12-01

We present time-resolved optical spectroscopy and photometry of four relatively bright (V˜14.0-15.5) long-period cataclysmic variables (CVs) discovered in the Hamburg Quasar Survey: HS 0139+0559, HS 0229+8016, HS 0506+7725, and HS 0642+5049. Their respective orbital periods, 243.69±0.49 min, 232.550±0.049 min, 212.7±0.2 min, and 225.90±0.23 min are determined from radial velocity and photometric variability studies. HS 0506+7725 is characterised by strong Balmer and He emission lines, short-period (~10-20 min) flickering, and weak X-ray emission in the ROSAT All Sky Survey. The detection of a deep low state (B≃18.5) identifies HS 0506+7725 as a member of the VY Scl stars. HS 0139+0559, HS 0229+8016, and HS 0642+5049 display thick-disc like spectra and no or only weak flickering activity. HS 0139+0559 and HS 0229+8016 exhibit clean quasi-sinusoidal radial velocity variations of their emission lines but no or very little orbital photometric variability. In contrast, we detect no radial velocity variation in HS 0642+5049 but a noticeable orbital brightness variation. We identify all three systems either as UX UMa-type novalike variables or as Z Cam-type dwarf novae. Our identification of these four new systems underlines that the currently known sample of CVs is rather incomplete even for bright objects. The four new systems add to the clustering of orbital periods in the 3-4 h range found in the sample of HQS selected CVs, and we discuss the large incidence of magnetic CVs and VY Scl/SW Sex stars found in this period range among the known population of CVs.

The Carina Project. I. Bright Variable Stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dall'Ora, M.; Ripepi, V.; Caputo, F.; Castellani, V.; Bono, G.; Smith, H. A.; Brocato, E.; Buonanno, R.; Castellani, M.; Corsi, C. E.; Marconi, M.; Monelli, M.; Nonino, M.; Pulone, L.; Walker, A. R.

2003-07-01

We present new BV time series data of the Carina dwarf spheroidal galaxy (dSph). Current data cover an area of ~0.3 deg2 around the center of the galaxy and allow us to identify 92 variables. Among them 75 are RR Lyrae stars, 15 are bona fide anomalous Cepheids, one might be a Galactic field RR Lyrae star, and one is located along the Carina red giant branch. Expanding upon the seminal photographic investigation by Saha, Monet, & Seitzer we supply, for the first time, accurate estimates of their pulsation parameters (periods, amplitudes, mean magnitudes, and colors) on the basis of CCD photometry. Approximately 50% of both RR Lyrae stars and anomalous Cepheids are new identifications. Among the RR Lyrae sample, six objects are new candidate double-mode (RRd) variables. On the basis of their pulsation properties we estimate that two variables (V158, V182) are about 50% more massive than typical RR Lyrae stars, while the bulk of the anomalous Cepheids are roughly a factor of 2 more massive than fundamental-mode (RRab) RR Lyrae stars. This finding supports the evidence that these objects are intermediate-mass stars during central He-burning phases. We adopted three different approaches to estimate the Carina distance modulus, namely, the first-overtone blue edge method, the period-luminosity-amplitude relation, and the period-luminosity-color relation. We found DM=20.19+/-0.12, a result that agrees quite well with similar estimates based on different distance indicators. The data for Carina, together with data available in the literature, strongly support the conclusion that dSph's can barely be classified into the classical Oosterhoff dichotomy. The mean period of RRab's in Carina resembles that found for Oosterhoff type II clusters, whereas the ratio between first-overtone (RRc) pulsators and the total number of RR Lyrae stars is quite similar to that found in Oosterhoff type I clusters. Based on observations collected at the European Southern Observatory, La Silla, Chile, on Osservatorio Astronomico di Capodimonte guaranteed time.

Dependence of vestibular reactions on frequency of action of sign-variable accelerations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lapayev, E. V.; Vorobyev, O. A.; Ivanov, V. V.

1980-01-01

It was revealed that during the tests with continuous action of sign variable Coriolis acceleration the development of kinetosis was proportionate to the time of head inclinations in the range of 1 to 4 seconds while illusions of rocking in sagittal plane was more expressed in fast inclinations. The obtained data provided the evidence of sufficient dependence of vestibulovegetative and vestibulosensory reactions on the period of repetition of sign variable Coriolis acceleration.

Tracking Central Hypovolemia with ECG in Humans: Cautions for the Use of Heart Period Variability in Patient Monitoring

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-06-01

without influences that may confound the re- sults (e.g., pain, anxiety , transport conditions, caregiver in- terventions). Second, rather than being...32. Ryan KL, Rickards CA, Muniz GW, Moralez G, Convertino VA: Interindi- vidual variability in heart rate variability ( HRV ) and complexity measure...Raimondi G, Legramante JM, Macerata A: Revisiting the potential of time-domain indexes in short-term HRV analysis. Biomed Tech (Berl) 51:190Y193, 2006

African hydroclimatic variability during the last 2000 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nash, David J.; De Cort, Gijs; Chase, Brian M.; Verschuren, Dirk; Nicholson, Sharon E.; Shanahan, Timothy M.; Asrat, Asfawossen; Lézine, Anne-Marie; Grab, Stefan W.

2016-12-01

The African continent is characterised by a wide range of hydroclimate regimes, ranging from humid equatorial West Africa to the arid deserts in the northern and southern subtropics. The livelihoods of much of its population are also vulnerable to future climate change, mainly through variability in rainfall affecting water resource availability. A growing number of data sources indicate that such hydroclimatic variability is an intrinsic component of Africa's natural environment. This paper, co-authored by members of the PAGES Africa 2k Working Group, presents an extensive assessment and discussion of proxy, historical and instrumental evidence for hydroclimatic variability across the African continent, spanning the last two millennia. While the African palaeoenvironmental record is characterised by spatially disjunctive datasets, with often less-than-optimal temporal resolution and chronological control, the available evidence allows the assessment of prominent spatial patterns of palaeomoisture variability through time. In this study, we focus sequentially on data for six major time windows: the first millennium CE, the Medieval Climate Anomaly (900-1250 CE), the Little Ice Age (1250-1750 CE), the end of the LIA (1750-1850 CE), the Early Modern Period (1850-1950), and the period of recent warming (1950 onwards). This results in a continent-wide synthesis of regional moisture-balance trends through history, allowing consideration of possible driving mechanisms, and suggestions for future research.

Heart rate variability in normal-weight patients with polycystic ovary syndrome.

PubMed

Kilit, Celal; Paşalı Kilit, Türkan

2017-05-01

Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is an endocrine disease closely related to several risk factors of cardiovascular disease. Obese women with PCOS show altered autonomic modulation. The results of studies investigating cardiac autonomic functions of normal-weight women with PCOS are conflicting. The aim of the study was to assess the reactivity of cardiac sympathovagal balance in normal-weight women with PCOS by heart rate variability analysis. We examined the heart rate variability in 60 normal-weight women with PCOS and compared them with that in 60 age-matched healthy women having a similar metabolic profile. Time and frequency domain parameters of heart rate variability were analyzed based on 5-min-long continuous electrocardiography recordings for the following 3 periods: (1) during rest in supine position, (2) during controlled breathing, and (3) during isometric handgrip exercise. Time and frequency domain parameters of heart rate variability for the 3 periods assessed were similar in the two groups. Although modified Ferriman-Gallwey score and serum testosterone and luteinizing hormone levels were significantly higher in women with PCOS, homeostatic model assessment-insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) was not different the between the PCOS and control groups. There were no significant correlations between serum testosterone levels and heart rate variability parameters among the study population. The findings of this study suggest that the reactivity of cardiac sympathovagal balance is not altered in normal-weight women with PCOS having a normal HOMA-IR.

BOKS 45906: a CV with an orbital period of 56.6 min in the Kepler field?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramsay, Gavin; Howell, Steve B.; Wood, Matt A.; Smale, Alan; Barclay, Thomas; Seebode, Sally A.; Gelino, Dawn; Still, Martin; Cannizzo, John K.

2014-02-01

BOKS 45906 was found to be a blue source in the Burrell-Optical-Kepler Survey which showed a 3 mag outburst lasting ˜5 d. We present the Kepler light curve of this source which covers nearly 3 years. We find that it is in a faint optical state for approximately half the time and shows a series of outbursts separated by distinct dips in flux. Using data with 1 min sampling, we find clear evidence that in its low state BOKS 45906 shows a flux variability on a period of 56.5574 ± 0.0014 min and a semi-amplitude of ˜3 per cent. Since we can phase all the 1 min cadence data on a common ephemeris using this period, it is probable that 56.56 min is the binary orbital period. Optical spectra of BOKS 45906 show the presence of Balmer lines in emission indicating it is not an AM CVn (pure Helium) binary. Swift data show that it is a weak X-ray source and is weakly detected in the bluest of the UVOT filters. We conclude that BOKS 45906 is a cataclysmic variable with a period shorter than the `period-bounce' systems and therefore BOKS 45906 could be the first helium-rich cataclysmic variable detected in the Kepler field.

FIRST LONG-TERM OPTICAL SPECTRAL MONITORING OF A BINARY BLACK HOLE CANDIDATE E1821+643. I. VARIABILITY OF SPECTRAL LINES AND CONTINUUM

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shapovalova, A. I.; Burenkov, A. N.; Zhdanova, V. E.

2016-02-15

We report the results of the first long-term (1990–2014) optical spectrophotometric monitoring of a binary black hole candidate QSO E1821+643, a low-redshift, high-luminosity, radio-quiet quasar. In the monitored period, the continua and Hγ fluxes changed about two times, while the Hβ flux changed about 1.4 times. We found periodical variations in the photometric flux with periods of 1200, 1850, and 4000 days, and 4500-day periodicity in the spectroscopic variations. However, the periodicity of 4000–4500 days covers only one cycle of variation and should be confirmed with a longer monitoring campaign. There is an indication of the period around 1300 daysmore » in the spectroscopic light curves, buts with small significance level, while the 1850-day period could not be clearly identified in the spectroscopic light curves. The line profiles have not significantly changed, showing an important red asymmetry and broad line peak redshifted around +1000 km s{sup −1}. However, Hβ shows a broader mean profile and has a larger time lag (τ ∼ 120 days) than Hγ (τ ∼ 60 days). We estimate that the mass of the black hole is ∼2.6 × 10{sup 9} M{sub ⊙}. The obtained results are discussed in the frame of the binary black hole hypothesis. To explain the periodicity in the flux variability and high redshift of the broad lines, we discuss a scenario where dense, gas-rich, cloudy-like structures are orbiting around a recoiling black hole.« less

ENSO activity during the last climate cycle using IFA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leduc, Guillaume; Vidal, Laurence; Thirumalai, Kaustubh

2017-04-01

The El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the principal mode of interannual climate variability and affects key climate parameters such as low-latitude rainfall variability. Anticipating future ENSO variability under anthropogenic forcing is vital due to its profound socioeconomic impact. Fossil corals suggest that 20th century ENSO variance is particularly high as compared to other time periods of the Holocene (Cobb et al., 2013, Science), the Last Glacial Maximum (Ford et al., 2015, Science) and the last glacial period (Tudhope et al., 2001, Science). Yet, recent climate modeling experiments suggest an increase in the frequency of both El Niño (Cai et al., 2014, Nature Climate Change) and La Niña (Cai et al., 2015, Nature Climate Change) events. We have expanded an Individual Foraminifera Analysis (IFA) dataset using the thermocline-dwelling N. dutertrei on a marine core collected in the Panama Basin (Leduc et al., 2009, Paleoceanography), that has proven to be a skillful way to reconstruct the ENSO (Thirumalai et al., 2013, Paleoceanography). Our new IFA dataset comprehensively covers the Holocene, the last deglaciation and Termination II (MIS5/6) time windows. We will also use previously published data from the Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS3). Our dataset confirms variable ENSO intensity during the Holocene and weaker activity during LGM than during the Holocene. As a next step, ENSO activity will be discussed with respect to the contrasting climatic background of the analysed time windows (millenial-scale variability, Terminations).

Effects of ice shelf basal melt variability on evolution of Thwaites Glacier

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoffman, M. J.; Fyke, J. G.; Price, S. F.; Asay-Davis, X.; Perego, M.

2017-12-01

Theory, modeling, and observations indicate that marine ice sheets on a retrograde bed, including Thwaites Glacier, Antarctica, are only conditionally stable. Previous modeling studies have shown that rapid, unstable retreat can occur when steady ice-shelf basal melting causes the grounding line to retreat past restraining bedrock bumps. Here we explore the initiation and evolution of unstable retreat of Thwaites Glacier when the ice-shelf basal melt forcing includes temporal variability mimicking realistic climate variability. We use the three-dimensional, higher-order Model for Prediction Across Scales-Land Ice (MPASLI) model forced with an ice shelf basal melt parameterization derived from previous coupled ice sheet/ocean simulations. We add sinusoidal temporal variability to the melt parameterization that represents shoaling and deepening of Circumpolar Deep Water. We perform an ensemble of 250 year duration simulations with different values for the amplitude, period, and phase of the variability. Preliminary results suggest that, overall, variability leads to slower grounding line retreat and less mass loss than steady simulations. Short period (2 yr) variability leads to similar results as steady forcing, whereas decadal variability can result in up to one-third less mass loss. Differences in phase lead to a large range in mass loss/grounding line retreat, but it is always less than the steady forcing. The timing of ungrounding from each restraining bedrock bump, which is strongly affected by the melt variability, is the rate limiting factor, and variability-driven delays in ungrounding at each bump accumulate. Grounding line retreat in the regions between bedrock bumps is relatively unaffected by ice shelf melt variability. While the results are sensitive to the form of the melt parameterization and its variability, we conclude that decadal period ice shelf melt variability could potentially delay marine ice sheet instability by up to many decades. However, it does not alter the eventual mass loss and sea level rise at centennial scales. The potential differences are significant enough to highlight the need for further observations to constrain the amplitude and period of the modes of climate and ocean variability relevant to Antarctic ice shelf melting.

Middle Pliocene sea surface temperature variability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dowsett, H.J.; Chandler, M.A.; Cronin, T. M.; Dwyer, Gary S.

2005-01-01

Estimates of sea surface temperature (SST) based upon foraminifer, diatom, and ostracod assemblages from ocean cores reveal a warm phase of the Pliocene between about 3.3 and 3.0 Ma. Pollen records and plant megafossils, although not as well dated, show evidence for a warmer climate at about the same time. Increased greenhouse forcing and altered ocean heat transport are the leading candidates for the underlying cause of Pliocene global warmth. Despite being a period of global warmth, this interval encompasses considerable variability. Two new SST reconstructions are presented that are designed to provide a climatological error bar for warm peak phases of the Pliocene and to document the spatial distribution and magnitude of SST variability within the mid-Pliocene warm period. These data suggest long-term stability of low-latitude SST and document greater variability in regions of maximum warming. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.

Variability of suspended-sediment concentration at tidal to annual time scales in San Francisco Bay, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schoellhamer, D.H.

2002-01-01

Singular spectrum analysis for time series with missing data (SSAM) was used to reconstruct components of a 6-yr time series of suspended-sediment concentration (SSC) from San Francisco Bay. Data were collected every 15 min and the time series contained missing values that primarily were due to sensor fouling. SSAM was applied in a sequential manner to calculate reconstructed components with time scales of variability that ranged from tidal to annual. Physical processes that controlled SSC and their contribution to the total variance of SSC were (1) diurnal, semidiurnal, and other higher frequency tidal constituents (24%), (2) semimonthly tidal cycles (21%), (3) monthly tidal cycles (19%), (4) semiannual tidal cycles (12%), and (5) annual pulses of sediment caused by freshwater inflow, deposition, and subsequent wind-wave resuspension (13%). Of the total variance 89% was explained and subtidal variability (65%) was greater than tidal variability (24%). Processes at subtidal time scales accounted for more variance of SSC than processes at tidal time scales because sediment accumulated in the water column and the supply of easily erodible bed sediment increased during periods of increased subtidal energy. This large range of time scales that each contained significant variability of SSC and associated contaminants can confound design of sampling programs and interpretation of resulting data.

Millennial-scale climate variations recorded in Early Pliocene colour reflectance time series from the lacustrine Ptolemais Basin (NW Greece)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steenbrink, J.; Kloosterboer-van Hoeve, M. L.; Hilgen, F. J.

2003-03-01

Quaternary climate proxy records show compelling evidence for climate variability on time scales of a few thousand years. The causes for these millennial-scale or sub-Milankovitch cycles are still poorly understood, not least due to the complex feedback mechanisms of large ice sheets during the Quaternary. We present evidence of millennial-scale climate variability in Early Pliocene lacustrine sediments from the intramontane Ptolemais Basin in northwestern Greece. The sediments are well exposed in a series of open-pit lignite mines and exhibit a distinct millennial-scale sedimentary cyclicity of alternating lignites and lacustrine marl beds that resulted from precession-induced variations in climate. The higher-frequency, millennial-scale cyclicity is particularly prominent within the grey-coloured marl segment of individual cycles. A stratigraphic interval of ˜115 ka, covering five precession-induced sedimentary cycles, was studied in nine parallel sections from two open-pit lignite mines located several km apart. High-resolution colour reflectance records were used to quantify the within-cycle variability and to determine its lateral continuity. Much of the within-cycle variability could be correlated between the parallel sections, even in fine detail, which suggests that these changes reflect basin-wide variations in environmental conditions related to (regional) climate fluctuations. Interbedded volcanic ash beds demonstrate the synchronicity of these fluctuations and spectral analysis of the reflectance time series shows a significant concentration of within-cycle variability at periods of ˜11, ˜5.5 and ˜2 ka. The occurrence of variability at such time scales at times before the intensification of the Northern Hemisphere glaciation suggests that they cannot solely have resulted from internal ice-sheet dynamics. Possible candidates include harmonics or combination tones of the main orbital cycles, variations in solar output or periodic motions of the Earth and Moon.

Evidence of solar activity and El Niño signals in tree rings of Araucaria araucana and A. angustifolia in South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perone, A.; Lombardi, F.; Marchetti, M.; Tognetti, R.; Lasserre, B.

2016-10-01

Tree rings reveal climatic variations through years, but also the effect of solar activity in influencing the climate on a large scale. In order to investigate the role of solar cycles on climatic variability and to analyse their influences on tree growth, we focused on tree-ring chronologies of Araucaria angustifolia and Araucaria araucana in four study areas: Irati and Curitiba in Brazil, Caviahue in Chile, and Tolhuaca in Argentina. We obtained an average tree-ring chronology of 218, 117, 439, and 849 years for these areas, respectively. Particularly, the older chronologies also included the period of the Maunder and Dalton minima. To identify periodicities and trends observable in tree growth, the time series were analysed using spectral, wavelet and cross-wavelet techniques. Analysis based on the Multitaper method of annual growth rates identified 2 cycles with periodicities of 11 (Schwebe cycle) and 5.5 years (second harmonic of Schwebe cycle). In the Chilean and Argentinian sites, significant agreement between the time series of tree rings and the 11-year solar cycle was found during the periods of maximum solar activity. Results also showed oscillation with periods of 2-7 years, probably induced by local environmental variations, and possibly also related to the El-Niño events. Moreover, the Morlet complex wavelet analysis was applied to study the most relevant variability factors affecting tree-ring time series. Finally, we applied the cross-wavelet spectral analysis to evaluate the time lags between tree-ring and sunspot-number time series, as well as for the interaction between tree rings, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and temperature and precipitation. Trees sampled in Chile and Argentina showed more evident responses of fluctuations in tree-ring time series to the variations of short and long periodicities in comparison with the Brazilian ones. These results provided new evidence on the solar activity-climate pattern-tree ring connections over centuries.

Orbital variability in the eclipsing pulsar binary PSR B1957+20

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arzoumanian, Z.; Fruchter, A. S.; Taylor, J. H.

1994-01-01

We have conducted timing observations of the eclipsing millisecond binary pulsar PSR B1957+20, extending the span of data on this pulsar to more than five years. During this time the orbital period of the system has varied by roughly Delta P(sub b)/P(sub b) = 1.6 x 10(exp -7), changing quardratically with time and displaying with time and displaying an orbital period second derivative of P(sub b) = (1.43 +/- 0.08) x 10(exp -18)/sec. The previous measurement of a large negative orbital period derivative reflected only the short-term behavior of the system during the early observations; the orbital period derivative is now positive. If, as we suspect, the PSR B1957+20 system is undergoing quasi-cyclic orbital period variations similar to those found in other close binaries such as Algol and RS CVn, then the 0.025 solar mass companion to PSR B1957+20 is most likely non-degenerate, convective, and magnetically active.

Macro- and micro-level predictors of age categorization: results from the European Social Survey.

PubMed

Ayalon, Liat; Doron, Israel; Bodner, Ehud; Inbar, Noit

2014-03-01

This study evaluated macro- and micro-level variables associated with individuals' perception of the ending of youth, the beginning of old age, and the length of the middle age period. The European Social Survey is a biennial multi-country, cross-sectional survey. Our analysis is based on the fourth wave, which included a rotating module on ageism. The source sample consisted of 28 countries and a total of 54,988 respondents. Whereas macro-level variability accounted for 14 % of the variance associated with the perception of the ending of youth, only 5.7 % of the variance associated with the perception of the beginning of old age was accounted for by macro-level variability. Almost 10 % of the variance associated with the perception of the middle age period was associated with macro-level variability. Different patterns of macro- and micro-level correlates emerged for the ending of youth, beginning of old age, and the period of middle age. Overall, results demonstrate that individual differences in the perception of the ending of youth, the beginning of old age, and the length of the middle age period are more pronounced than contextual differences. Results also suggest that individuals' mental maps regarding the timing of these events are not necessarily concordant.

Wheels within Wheels: Hamiltonian Dynamics as a Hierarchy of Action Variables

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Perkins, Rory J.; Bellan, Paul M.

2010-09-17

In systems where one coordinate undergoes periodic oscillation, the net displacement in any other coordinate over a single period is shown to be given by differentiation of the action integral associated with the oscillating coordinate. This result is then used to demonstrate that the action integral acts as a Hamiltonian for slow coordinates providing time is scaled to the 'tick time' of the oscillating coordinate. Numerous examples, including charged particle drifts and relativistic motion, are supplied to illustrate the varied application of these results.

Rapid variability as a probe of warped space-time around accreting black holes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Axelsson, Magnus

2016-07-01

The geometry of the inner accretion flow of X-ray binaries is complex, with multiple regions contributing to the observed emission. Frequency-resolved spectroscopy is a powerful tool in breaking this spectral degeneracy. We have extracted the spectra of the strong low-frequency quasi-periodic oscillation (QPO) and its harmonic in GX339-4 and XTE J1550-564, and compare these to the time-averaged spectrum and the spectrum of the rapid (<0.1 s) variability. Our results support the picture where the QPO arises from vertical (Lense-Thirring) precession of an inhomogeneous hot flow, softer at larger radii closer to the truncated disc and harder in the innermost parts where the rapid variability is produced. This coupling between variability and spectra allows us to constrain the soft Comptonization component, breaking the degeneracy plaguing the time-averaged spectrum and revealing the geometry of the accretion flow close to the black hole.

(Bayesian) Inference for X-ray Timing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huppenkothen, Daniela

2016-07-01

Fourier techniques have been incredibly successful in describing variability of X-ray binaries (XRBs) and Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN). The detection and characterization of both broadband noise components and quasi-periodic oscillations as well as their behavior in the context of spectral changes during XRB outbursts has become an important tool for studying the physical processes of accretion and ejection in these systems. In this talk, I will review state-of-the-art techniques for characterizing variability in compact objects and show how these methods help us understand the causes of the observed variability and how we may use it to probe fundamental physics. Despite numerous successes, however, it has also become clear that many scientific questions cannot be answered with traditional timing methods alone. I will therefore also present recent advances, some in the time domain like CARMA, to modeling variability with generative models and discuss where these methods might lead us in the future.

Inherent characteristics of sawtooth cycles can explain different glacial periodicities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Omta, Anne Willem; Kooi, Bob W.; van Voorn, George A. K.; Rickaby, Rosalind E. M.; Follows, Michael J.

2016-01-01

At the Mid-Pleistocene Transition about 1 Ma, the dominant periodicity of the glacial-interglacial cycles shifted from 40 to 100 kyr. Here, we use a previously developed mathematical model to investigate the possible dynamical origin of these different periodicities. The model has two variables, one of which exhibits sawtooth oscillations, resembling the glacial-interglacial cycles, whereas the other variable exhibits spikes at the rapid transitions. When applying a sinusoidal forcing with a fixed period, there emerges a rich variety of cycles with different periodicities, each being a multiple of the forcing period. Furthermore, the dominant periodicity of the system can change, while the forcing periodicity remains fixed, due to either random variations or different frequency components of the orbital forcing. Two key relationships stand out as predictions to be tested against observations: (1) the amplitude and the periodicity of the cycles are approximately linearly proportional to each other, a relationship that is also found in the δ ^{18}O temperature proxy. (2) The magnitude of the spikes increases with increasing periodicity and amplitude of the sawtooth. This prediction could be used to identify one or more currently hidden spiking variables driving the glacial-interglacial transitions. Essentially, the quest would be for any proxy record, concurrent with a dynamical model prediction, that exhibits deglacial spikes which increase at times when the amplitude/periodicity of the glacial cycles increases. In the specific context of our calcifier-alkalinity mechanism, the records of interest would be calcifier productivity and calcite accumulation. We believe that such a falsifiable hypothesis should provide a strong motivation for the collection of further records.

Improved short-term variability in the thermosphere-ionosphere-mesosphere-electrodynamics general circulation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Häusler, K.; Hagan, M. E.; Baumgaertner, A. J. G.; Maute, A.; Lu, G.; Doornbos, E.; Bruinsma, S.; Forbes, J. M.; Gasperini, F.

2014-08-01

We report on a new source of tidal variability in the National Center for Atmospheric Research thermosphere-ionosphere-mesosphere-electrodynamics general circulation model (TIME-GCM). Lower boundary forcing of the TIME-GCM for a simulation of November-December 2009 based on 3-hourly Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Application (MERRA) reanalysis data includes day-to-day variations in both diurnal and semidiurnal tides of tropospheric origin. Comparison with TIME-GCM results from a heretofore standard simulation that includes climatological tropospheric tides from the global-scale wave model reveal evidence of the impacts of MERRA forcing throughout the model domain, including measurable tidal variability in the TIME-GCM upper thermosphere. Additional comparisons with measurements made by the Gravity field and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer satellite show improved TIME-GCM capability to capture day-to-day variations in thermospheric density for the November-December 2009 period with the new MERRA lower boundary forcing.

Atmospheric circulation patterns associated to the variability of River Ammer floods: evidence from observed and proxy data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rimbu, N.; Czymzik, M.; Ionita, M.; Lohmann, G.; Brauer, A.

2015-09-01

The relationship between the frequency of River Ammer floods (southern Germany) and atmospheric circulation variability is investigated based on observational Ammer discharge data back to 1926 and a flood layer time series from varved sediments of the downstream Lake Ammersee for the pre-instrumental period back to 1766. A composite analysis reveals that, at synoptic time scales, observed River Ammer floods are associated with enhanced moisture transport from the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean towards the Ammer region, a pronounced trough over Western Europe as well as enhanced potential vorticity at upper levels. We argue that this synoptic scale configuration can trigger heavy precipitation and floods in the Ammer region. Interannual to multidecadal increases in flood frequency as recorded in the instrumental discharge record are associated to a wave-train pattern extending from the North Atlantic to western Asia with a prominent negative center over western Europe. A similar atmospheric circulation pattern is associated to increases in flood layer frequency in the Lake Ammersee sediment record during the pre-instrumental period. We argue that the complete flood layer time-series from Lake Ammersee sediments covering the last 5500 years, contains information about atmospheric circulation variability on inter-annual to millennial time-scales.

Dynamic Latent Trait Models with Mixed Hidden Markov Structure for Mixed Longitudinal Outcomes.

PubMed

Zhang, Yue; Berhane, Kiros

2016-01-01

We propose a general Bayesian joint modeling approach to model mixed longitudinal outcomes from the exponential family for taking into account any differential misclassification that may exist among categorical outcomes. Under this framework, outcomes observed without measurement error are related to latent trait variables through generalized linear mixed effect models. The misclassified outcomes are related to the latent class variables, which represent unobserved real states, using mixed hidden Markov models (MHMM). In addition to enabling the estimation of parameters in prevalence, transition and misclassification probabilities, MHMMs capture cluster level heterogeneity. A transition modeling structure allows the latent trait and latent class variables to depend on observed predictors at the same time period and also on latent trait and latent class variables at previous time periods for each individual. Simulation studies are conducted to make comparisons with traditional models in order to illustrate the gains from the proposed approach. The new approach is applied to data from the Southern California Children Health Study (CHS) to jointly model questionnaire based asthma state and multiple lung function measurements in order to gain better insight about the underlying biological mechanism that governs the inter-relationship between asthma state and lung function development.

Identification and period investigation of pulsation variable star UY Camelopardalis, an RR Lyrae star in binary system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Lin-Jia; Qian, Sheng-Bang; Voloshina, Irina; Metlov, Vladimir G.; Zhu, Li-Ying; Liao, Wen-Ping

2018-06-01

We present photometric measurements of the short period variable star UY Cam, which has been classified as a δ Scuti or c-type RR Lyrae (RRc) variable in different catalogs. Based on the analyses on Fourier coefficients and (NUV - V)0, we find that UY Cam is probably an RRc star. We obtain 58 new times of light maximum for UY Cam based on several sky surveys and our observations. Combining these with the times of light maximum in literature, a total of 154 times of light maximum are used to analyze the O - C diagram of UY Cam. The results show that the O - C pattern can be described by a downward parabolic component with a rate of -6.86 ± 0.47 × 10-11 d d-1, and a cyclic variation with a period of 65.7 ± 2.4 yr. We suppose these components are caused by the stellar evolution and the light travel time effect (LiTE) of a companion in elliptical orbit, respectively. By calculation, the minimum mass of the potential companion is about 0.17 M⊙, and its mass should be less than or equal to the pulsation primary star when the inclination i > 22.5°D. Therefore, the companion should be a low-mass star, like a late-type main-sequence star or a white dwarf. Due to the unique property of UY Cam, we suggest that more observations and studies on UY Cam and other RRc stars are needed to check the nature of these stars, including the pulsations and binarities.

Dental development in living and fossil orangutans.

PubMed

Smith, Tanya M

2016-05-01

Numerous studies have investigated molar development in extant and fossil hominoids, yet relatively little is known about orangutans, the only great ape with an extensive fossil record. This study characterizes aspects of dental development, including cuspal enamel daily secretion rate, long-period line periodicities, cusp-specific molar crown formation times and extension rates, and initiation and completion ages in living and fossil orangutan postcanine teeth. Daily secretion rate and periodicities in living orangutans are similar to previous reports, while crown formation times often exceed published values, although direct comparisons are limited. One wild Bornean individual died at 4.5 years of age with fully erupted first molars (M1s), while a captive individual and a wild Sumatran individual likely erupted their M1s around five or six years of age. These data underscore the need for additional samples of orangutans of known sex, species, and developmental environment to explore potential sources of variation in molar emergence and their relationship to life history variables. Fossil orangutans possess larger crowns than living orangutans, show similarities in periodicities, and have faster daily secretion rate, longer crown formation times, and slower extension rates. Molar crown formation times exceed reported values for other fossil apes, including Gigantopithecus blacki. When compared to African apes, both living and fossil orangutans show greater cuspal enamel thickness values and periodicities, resulting in longer crown formation times and slower extension rates. Several of these variables are similar to modern humans, representing examples of convergent evolution. Molar crown formation does not appear to be equivalent among extant great apes or consistent within living and fossil members of Pongo or Homo. Copyright © 2016 The Author. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Assessment of a stochastic downscaling methodology in generating an ensemble of hourly future climate time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fatichi, S.; Ivanov, V. Y.; Caporali, E.

2013-04-01

This study extends a stochastic downscaling methodology to generation of an ensemble of hourly time series of meteorological variables that express possible future climate conditions at a point-scale. The stochastic downscaling uses general circulation model (GCM) realizations and an hourly weather generator, the Advanced WEather GENerator (AWE-GEN). Marginal distributions of factors of change are computed for several climate statistics using a Bayesian methodology that can weight GCM realizations based on the model relative performance with respect to a historical climate and a degree of disagreement in projecting future conditions. A Monte Carlo technique is used to sample the factors of change from their respective marginal distributions. As a comparison with traditional approaches, factors of change are also estimated by averaging GCM realizations. With either approach, the derived factors of change are applied to the climate statistics inferred from historical observations to re-evaluate parameters of the weather generator. The re-parameterized generator yields hourly time series of meteorological variables that can be considered to be representative of future climate conditions. In this study, the time series are generated in an ensemble mode to fully reflect the uncertainty of GCM projections, climate stochasticity, as well as uncertainties of the downscaling procedure. Applications of the methodology in reproducing future climate conditions for the periods of 2000-2009, 2046-2065 and 2081-2100, using the period of 1962-1992 as the historical baseline are discussed for the location of Firenze (Italy). The inferences of the methodology for the period of 2000-2009 are tested against observations to assess reliability of the stochastic downscaling procedure in reproducing statistics of meteorological variables at different time scales.

Suwannee River flow variability 1550-2005 CE reconstructed from a multispecies tree-ring network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harley, Grant L.; Maxwell, Justin T.; Larson, Evan; Grissino-Mayer, Henri D.; Henderson, Joseph; Huffman, Jean

2017-01-01

Understanding the long-term natural flow regime of rivers enables resource managers to more accurately model water level variability. Models for managing water resources are important in Florida where population increase is escalating demand on water resources and infrastructure. The Suwannee River is the second largest river system in Florida and the least impacted by anthropogenic disturbance. We used new and existing tree-ring chronologies from multiple species to reconstruct mean March-October discharge for the Suwannee River during the period 1550-2005 CE and place the short period of instrumental flows (since 1927 CE) into historical context. We used a nested principal components regression method to maximize the use of chronologies with varying time coverage in the network. Modeled streamflow estimates indicated that instrumental period flow conditions do not adequately capture the full range of Suwannee River flow variability beyond the observational period. Although extreme dry and wet events occurred in the gage record, pluvials and droughts that eclipse the intensity and duration of instrumental events occurred during the 16-19th centuries. The most prolonged and severe dry conditions during the past 450 years occurred during the 1560s CE. In this prolonged drought period mean flow was estimated at 17% of the mean instrumental period flow. Significant peaks in spectral density at 2-7, 10, 45, and 85-year periodicities indicated the important influence of coupled oceanic-atmospheric processes on Suwannee River streamflow over the past four centuries, though the strength of these periodicities varied over time. Future water planning based on current flow expectations could prove devastating to natural and human systems if a prolonged and severe drought mirroring the 16th and 18th century events occurred. Future work in the region will focus on updating existing tree-ring chronologies and developing new collections from moisture-sensitive sites to improve understandings of past hydroclimate in the region.

Variable Stars Observed in the Galactic Disk by AST3-1 from Dome A, Antarctica

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Lingzhi; Ma, Bin; Hu, Yi

AST3-1 is the second-generation wide-field optical photometric telescope dedicated to time-domain astronomy at Dome A, Antarctica. Here, we present the results of an i -band images survey from AST3-1 toward one Galactic disk field. Based on time-series photometry of 92,583 stars, 560 variable stars were detected with i magnitude ≤16.5 mag during eight days of observations; 339 of these are previously unknown variables. We tentatively classify the 560 variables as 285 eclipsing binaries (EW, EB, and EA), 27 pulsating variable stars ( δ Scuti, γ Doradus, δ Cephei variable, and RR Lyrae stars), and 248 other types of variables (unclassifiedmore » periodic, multiperiodic, and aperiodic variable stars). Of the eclipsing binaries, 34 show O’Connell effects. One of the aperiodic variables shows a plateau light curve and another variable shows a secondary maximum after peak brightness. We also detected a complex binary system with an RS CVn-like light-curve morphology; this object is being followed-up spectroscopically using the Gemini South telescope.« less

Spatial and temporal analysis of drought variability at several time scales in Syria during 1961-2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mathbout, Shifa; Lopez-Bustins, Joan A.; Martin-Vide, Javier; Bech, Joan; Rodrigo, Fernando S.

2018-02-01

This paper analyses the observed spatiotemporal characteristics of drought phenomenon in Syria using the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Temporal variability of drought is calculated for various time scales (3, 6, 9, 12, and 24 months) for 20 weather stations over the 1961-2012 period. The spatial patterns of drought were identified by applying a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to the SPI and SPEI values at different time scales. The results revealed three heterogeneous and spatially well-defined regions with different temporal evolution of droughts: 1) Northeastern (inland desert); 2) Southern (mountainous landscape); 3) Northwestern (Mediterranean coast). The evolutionary characteristics of drought during 1961-2012 were analysed including spatial and temporal variability of SPI and SPEI, the frequency distribution, and the drought duration. The results of the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test applied to the SPI and SPEI series indicate prevailing significant negative trends (drought) at all stations. Both drought indices have been correlated both on spatial and temporal scales and they are highly comparable, especially, over a 12 and 24 month accumulation period. We concluded that the temporal and spatial characteristics of the SPI and SPEI can be used for developing a drought intensity - areal extent - and frequency curve that assesses the variability of regional droughts in Syria. The analysis of both indices suggests that all three regions had a severe drought in the 1990s, which had never been observed before in the country. Furthermore, the 2007-2010 drought was the driest period in the instrumental record, happening just before the onset of the recent conflict in Syria.

Periodicity analysis of δ18O in precipitation over Central Europe: Time-frequency considerations of the isotopic 'temperature' effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salamalikis, V.; Argiriou, A. A.; Dotsika, E.

2016-03-01

In this paper the periodic patterns of the isotopic composition of precipitation (δ18O) for 22 stations located around Central Europe are investigated through sinusoidal models and wavelet analysis over a 23 years period (1980/01-2002/12). The seasonal distribution of δ18O follows the temporal variability of air temperature providing seasonal amplitudes ranging from 0.94‰ to 4.47‰; the monthly isotopic maximum is observed in July. The isotopic amplitude reflects the geographical dependencies of the isotopic composition of precipitation providing higher values when moving inland. In order to describe the dominant oscillation modes included in δ18O time series, the Morlet Continuous Wavelet Transform is evaluated. The main periodicity is represented at 12-months (annual periodicity) where the wavelet power is mainly concentrated. Stations (i.e. Cuxhaven, Trier, etc.) with limited seasonal isotopic effect provide sparse wavelet power areas at the annual periodicity mode explaining the fact that precipitation has a complex isotopic fingerprint that cannot be examined solely by the seasonality effect. Since temperature is the main contributor of the isotopic variability in mid-latitudes, the isotope-temperature effect is also investigated. The isotope-temperature slope ranges from 0.11‰/°C to 0.47‰/°C with steeper values observed at the southernmost stations of the study area. Bivariate wavelet analysis is applied in order to determine the correlation and the slope of the δ18O - temperature relationship over the time-frequency plane. High coherencies are detected at the annual periodicity mode. The time-frequency slope is calculated at the annual periodicity mode ranging from 0.45‰/°C to 0.83‰/°C with higher values at stations that show a more distinguishable seasonal isotopic behavior. Generally the slope fluctuates around a mean value but in certain cases (sites with low seasonal effect) abrupt slope changes are derived and the slope becomes strongly unstable.

An 1800-yr record of decadal-scale hydroclimatic variability in the upper Arkansas River basin from bristlecone pine

USGS Publications Warehouse

Woodhouse, C.A.; Pederson, G.T.; Gray, S.T.

2011-01-01

Bristlecone pine trees are exceptionally long-lived, and with the incorporation of remnant material have been used to construct multi-millennial length ring-width chronologies. These chronologies can provide valuable information about past temperature and moisture variability. In this study, we outline a method to build a moisture-sensitive bristlecone chronology and assess the robustness and consistency of this sensitivity over the past 1200. yr using new reconstructions of Arkansas River flow (AD 1275-2002 and 1577-2002) and the summer Palmer Drought Sensitivity Index. The chronology, a composite built from parts of three collections in the central Rocky Mountains, is a proxy for decadal-scale moisture variability for the past 18 centuries. Since the sample size is small in some portions of the time series, the chronology should be considered preliminary; the timing and duration of drought events are likely the most robust characteristics. This chronology suggests that the region experienced increased aridity during the medieval period, as did much of western North America, but that the timing and duration of drought episodes within this period were somewhat different from those in other western locations, such as the upper Colorado River basin. ?? 2010 University of Washington.

Field Metabolic Rate Is Dependent on Time-Activity Budget in Ring-Billed Gulls (Larus delawarensis) Breeding in an Anthropogenic Environment.

PubMed

Marteinson, Sarah C; Giroux, Jean-François; Hélie, Jean-François; Gentes, Marie-Line; Verreault, Jonathan

2015-01-01

Environmental and behavioral factors have long been assumed to affect variation in avian field metabolic rate (FMR). However, due to the difficulties in measuring continuous behavior of birds over prolonged periods of time, complete time-activity budgets have rarely been examined in relation to FMR. Our objective was to determine the effect of activity (measured by detailed time-activity budgets) and a series of extrinsic and intrinsic factors on FMR of the omnivorous ring-billed gull (Larus delawarensis). The experiment was conducted during the incubation period when both members of the pair alternate between attending the nest-site and leaving the colony to forage in aquatic and anthropogenic environments (city, agricultural). FMR was determined using the doubly labeled water method. Time-activity budgets were extrapolated from spatio-temporal data (2-5 days) obtained from bird-borne GPS data loggers. Gulls had low FMRs compared to those predicted by allometric equations based on recorded FMRs from several seabird species. Gulls proportioned their time mainly to nest-site attendance (71% of total tracking time), which reduced FMR/g body mass, and was the best variable explaining energy expenditure. The next best variable was the duration of foraging trips, which increased FMR/g; FMR/g was also elevated by the proportion of time spent foraging or flying (17% and 8% of tracking time respectively). Most environmental variables measured did not impact FMR/g, however, the percent of time birds were subjected to temperatures below their lower critical temperature increased FMR. Time-activity budgets varied between the sexes, and with temperature and capture date suggesting that these variables indirectly affected FMR/g. The gulls foraged preferentially in anthropogenic-related habitats, which may have contributed to their low FMR/g due to the high availability of protein- and lipid-rich foods. This study demonstrates that activities were the best predictors of FMR/g in ring-billed gulls, thus providing strong support for this long-standing theory in bioenergetics.

Modulation of cardiac autonomic tone in non-hypotensive hypovolemia during blood donation.

PubMed

Yadav, Kavita; Singh, Akanksha; Jaryal, Ashok Kumar; Coshic, Poonam; Chatterjee, Kabita; Deepak, K K

2017-08-01

Non-hypotensive hypovolemia, observed during mild haemorrhage or blood donation leads to reflex readjustment of the cardiac autonomic tone. In the present study, the cardiac autonomic tone was quantified using heart rate and blood pressure variability during and after non-hypotensive hypovolemia of blood donation. 86 voluntary healthy male blood donors were recruited for the study (age 35 ± 9 years; weight 78 ± 12 kg; height 174 ± 6 cms). Continuous lead II ECG and beat-to-beat blood pressure was recorded before, during and after blood donation followed by offline time and frequency domain analysis of HRV and BPV. The overall heart rate variability (SDNN and total power) did not change during or after blood donation. However, there was a decrease in indices that represent the parasympathetic component (pNN50 %, SDSD and HF) while an increase was observed in sympathetic component (LF) along with an increase in sympathovagal balance (LF:HF ratio) during blood donation. These changes were sustained for the period immediately following blood donation. No fall of blood pressure was observed during the period of study. The blood pressure variability showed an increase in the SDNN, CoV and RMSSD time domain measures in the post donation period. These results suggest that mild hypovolemia produced by blood donation is non-hypotensive but is associated with significant changes in the autonomic tone. The increased blood pressure variability and heart rate changes that are seen only in the later part of donation period could be because of the progressive hypovolemia associated parasympathetic withdrawal and sympathetic activation that manifest during the course of blood donation.

Does the Nile reflect solar variability?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruzmaikin, Alexander; Feynman, Joan; Yung, Yuk

Historical records of the Nile water level provide a unique opportunity to investigate the possibility that solar variability influences the Earth's climate. Particularly important are the annual records of the water level, which are uninterrupted for the years 622-1470 A.D. These records are non-stationary, so that standard spectral analyses cannot adequately characterize them. Here the Empirical Mode Decomposition technique, which is designed to deal with non-stationary, nonlinear time series, becomes useful. It allows the identification of two characteristic time scales in the water level data that can be linked to solar variability: the 88 year period and a time scale of about 200 years. These time scales are also present in the concurrent aurora data. Auroras are driven by coronal mass ejections and the rate of auroras is an excellent proxy for solar variabiliy. Analysis of auroral data contemporaneous with the Nile data shows peaks at 88 years and about 200 years. This suggests a physical link between solar variability and the low-frequency variations of the Nile water level. The link involves the influence of solar variability on the North Annual Mode of atmospheric variability and its North Atlantic and Indian Oceans patterns that affect rainfall over Eastren Equatorial Africa where the Nile originates.

2500 Years of European Climate Variability and Human Susceptibility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Büntgen, Ulf; Tegel, Willy; Nicolussi, Kurt; McCormick, Michael; Frank, David; Trouet, Valerie; Kaplan, Jed O.; Herzig, Franz; Heussner, Karl-Uwe; Wanner, Heinz; Luterbacher, Jürg; Esper, Jan

2011-02-01

Climate variations influenced the agricultural productivity, health risk, and conflict level of preindustrial societies. Discrimination between environmental and anthropogenic impacts on past civilizations, however, remains difficult because of the paucity of high-resolution paleoclimatic evidence. We present tree ring-based reconstructions of central European summer precipitation and temperature variability over the past 2500 years. Recent warming is unprecedented, but modern hydroclimatic variations may have at times been exceeded in magnitude and duration. Wet and warm summers occurred during periods of Roman and medieval prosperity. Increased climate variability from ~250 to 600 C.E. coincided with the demise of the western Roman Empire and the turmoil of the Migration Period. Such historical data may provide a basis for counteracting the recent political and fiscal reluctance to mitigate projected climate change.

THE TAIWANESE-AMERICAN OCCULTATION SURVEY PROJECT STELLAR VARIABILITY. II. DETECTION OF 15 VARIABLE STARS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mondal, S.; Lin, C. C.; Chen, W. P.

2010-05-15

The Taiwanese-American Occultation Survey (TAOS) project has collected more than a billion photometric measurements since 2005 January. These sky survey data-covering timescales from a fraction of a second to a few hundred days-are a useful source to study stellar variability. A total of 167 star fields, mostly along the ecliptic plane, have been selected for photometric monitoring with the TAOS telescopes. This paper presents our initial analysis of a search for periodic variable stars from the time-series TAOS data on one particular TAOS field, No. 151 (R.A. = 17{sup h}30{sup m}6.{sup s}7, decl. = 27{sup 0}17'30'', J2000), which had beenmore » observed over 47 epochs in 2005. A total of 81 candidate variables are identified in the 3 deg{sup 2} field, with magnitudes in the range 8 < R < 16. On the basis of the periodicity and shape of the light curves, 29 variables, 15 of which were previously unknown, are classified as RR Lyrae, Cepheid, {delta} Scuti, SX Phonencis, semi-regular, and eclipsing binaries.« less

Constructing a multidimensional free energy surface like a spider weaving a web.

PubMed

Chen, Changjun

2017-10-15

Complete free energy surface in the collective variable space provides important information of the reaction mechanisms of the molecules. But, sufficient sampling in the collective variable space is not easy. The space expands quickly with the number of the collective variables. To solve the problem, many methods utilize artificial biasing potentials to flatten out the original free energy surface of the molecule in the simulation. Their performances are sensitive to the definitions of the biasing potentials. Fast-growing biasing potential accelerates the sampling speed but decreases the accuracy of the free energy result. Slow-growing biasing potential gives an optimized result but needs more simulation time. In this article, we propose an alternative method. It adds the biasing potential to a representative point of the molecule in the collective variable space to improve the conformational sampling. And the free energy surface is calculated from the free energy gradient in the constrained simulation, not given by the negative of the biasing potential as previous methods. So the presented method does not require the biasing potential to remove all the barriers and basins on the free energy surface exactly. Practical applications show that the method in this work is able to produce the accurate free energy surfaces for different molecules in a short time period. The free energy errors are small in the cases of various biasing potentials. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Four new Delta Scuti stars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schutt, R. L.

1991-01-01

Four new Delta Scuti stars are reported. Power, modified into amplitude, spectra, and light curves are used to determine periodicities. A complete frequency analysis is not performed due to the lack of a sufficient time base in the data. These new variables help verify the many predictions that Delta Scuti stars probably exist in prolific numbers as small amplitude variables. Two of these stars, HR 4344 and HD 107513, are possibly Am stars. If so, they are among the minority of variable stars which are also Am stars.

An eLIMA model for the 67 s X-ray periodicity in CAL 83

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Odendaal, A.; Meintjes, P. J.

2017-05-01

Supersoft X-ray sources (SSSs) are characterized by their low effective temperatures and high X-ray luminosities. The soft X-ray emission can be explained by hydrogen nuclear burning on the surface of a white dwarf (WD) accreting at an extremely high rate. A peculiar ˜67 s periodicity (P67) was previously discovered in the XMM-Newton light curves of the SSS CAL 83. P67 was detected in X-ray light curves spanning ˜9 yr, but exhibits variability of several seconds on time-scales as short as a few hours, and its properties are remarkably similar to those of dwarf nova oscillations (DNOs). DNOs are short time-scale modulations (≲1 min) often observed in dwarf novae during outburst. DNOs are explained by the well-established low-inertia magnetic accretor (LIMA) model. In this paper, we show that P67 and its associated period variability can be satisfactorily explained by an application of the LIMA model to the more 'extreme' environment in an SSS (eLIMA), contrary to another recent study attempting to explain P67 and its associated variability in terms of non-radial g-mode oscillations in the extended envelope of the rapidly accreting WD in CAL 83. In the eLIMA model, P67 originates in an equatorial belt in the WD envelope at the boundary with the inner accretion disc, with the belt weakly coupled to the WD core by an ˜105 G magnetic field. New optical light curves obtained with the Sutherland High-speed Optical Camera are also presented, exhibiting quasi-periodic modulations on time-scales of ˜1000 s, compatible with the eLIMA framework.

Lack of a decline in HIV incidence in a rural community with high HIV prevalence in South Africa, 2003-2007.

PubMed

Bärnighausen, Till; Tanser, Frank; Newell, Marie-Louise

2009-04-01

To understand the dynamics of the HIV epidemic and to plan HIV treatment and prevention programs, it is critical to know how HIV incidence in a population evolves over time. We used data from a large population-based longitudinal HIV surveillance in a rural community in South Africa to test whether HIV incidence in this population has changed in the period from 2003 through 2007. We observed 563 seroconversions in 8095 individuals over 16,256 person-years at risk, yielding an overall HIV incidence of 3.4 per 100 person-years (95% confidence interval 3.1-3.7). We included time-dependent period dummy variables (in half-yearly increments) in age-stratified Cox regressions in order to test for trends in HIV incidence. We first did regression analyses separately for women and men. In both regressions, the coefficients of all period dummy variables were individually insignificant (all p > or = 0.338) and jointly insignificant (p = 0.764 and p = 0.111, respectively). We then did regression analysis using the pooled data on women and men, controlling for sex and interactions between sex and age. Again, the coefficients of the eight period dummy variables were individually insignificant (all p > or = 0.387) and jointly insignificant (p = 0.701). We show for the first time that high levels of HIV incidence have been maintained without any sign of decline over the past 5 years in both women and men in a rural South African community with high HIV prevalence. It is unlikely that the HIV epidemic in rural South Africa can be reversed without new or intensified efforts to prevent HIV infection.

Inbreeding coefficients and degree of consanguineous marriages in Spain: a review.

PubMed

Fuster, Vicente; Colantonio, Sonia Edith

2003-01-01

The contribution of consanguineous marriages corresponding to uncle-niece or aunt-nephew (C12), first cousin (C22), first cousin once removed (C23), and second cousin (C33) to the inbreeding coefficient (alpha) was analyzed from a sample of Spanish areas and periods. Multiple regressions were performed taking as independent variables the different degrees of consanguinity previously selected (C12, C22, C23, and C33) and as dependent variable the inbreeding coefficient (alpha). According to the results obtained for any degree and period, rural frequencies always surpass urban. However, the pattern is similar in both areas. In the period where consanguinity was more elevated (1890-1929) the C22/C33 ratio increased. Its variation is not due to C22 and C33 changes in the same way. In rural areas, this ratio surpasses the expected value by a factor of 2-3, but in urban areas it was 7-10 times larger, in some cases due to migration. While in rural Spain the C33 frequency was approximately 1.5 times C22, in cities C22 was 1.5 times C33. The best fit among the various types of consanguineous matings and alpha involves a lineal relationship. Regardless of the number of variables contributing significantly to alpha, C22 matings are always present. Moreover, their standardized (beta) coefficients are the highest. The above indicates that this consanguineous relationship conditions the inbreeding coefficient the most. In the period of greater consanguinity, close relationships, uncle-niece C12, and first cousin once removed (C23) make a significant contribution to alpha. In rural Spain second cousins (C33) always significantly determined alpha; however, in cities the inbreeding variation was mainly due to C12 and C23. Copyright 2003 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Evaluation of listener-based anuran surveys with automated audio recording devices

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shearin, A. F.; Calhoun, A.J.K.; Loftin, C.S.

2012-01-01

Volunteer-based audio surveys are used to document long-term trends in anuran community composition and abundance. Current sampling protocols, however, are not region- or species-specific and may not detect relatively rare or audibly cryptic species. We used automated audio recording devices to record calling anurans during 2006–2009 at wetlands in Maine, USA. We identified species calling, chorus intensity, time of day, and environmental variables when each species was calling and developed logistic and generalized mixed models to determine the time interval and environmental variables that optimize detection of each species during peak calling periods. We detected eight of nine anurans documented in Maine. Individual recordings selected from the sampling period (0.5 h past sunset to 0100 h) described in the North American Amphibian Monitoring Program (NAAMP) detected fewer species than were detected in recordings from 30 min past sunset until sunrise. Time of maximum detection of presence and full chorusing for three species (green frogs, mink frogs, pickerel frogs) occurred after the NAAMP sampling end time (0100 h). The NAAMP protocol’s sampling period may result in omissions and misclassifications of chorus sizes for certain species. These potential errors should be considered when interpreting trends generated from standardized anuran audio surveys.

Spurious One-Month and One-Year Periods in Visual Observations of Variable Stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Percy, J. R.

2015-12-01

Visual observations of variable stars, when time-series analyzed with some algorithms such as DC-DFT in vstar, show spurious periods at or close to one synodic month (29.5306 days), and also at about a year, with an amplitude of typically a few hundredths of a magnitude. The one-year periods have been attributed to the Ceraski effect, which was believed to be a physiological effect of the visual observing process. This paper reports on time-series analysis, using DC-DFT in vstar, of visual observations (and in some cases, V observations) of a large number of stars in the AAVSO International Database, initially to investigate the one-month periods. The results suggest that both the one-month and one-year periods are actually due to aliasing of the stars' very low-frequency variations, though they do not rule out very low-amplitude signals (typically 0.01 to 0.02 magnitude) which may be due to a different process, such as a physiological one. Most or all of these aliasing effects may be avoided by using a different algorithm, which takes explicit account of the window function of the data, and/or by being fully aware of the possible presence of and aliasing by very low-frequency variations.

Climate impact on suicide rates in Finland from 1971 to 2003

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruuhela, Reija; Hiltunen, Laura; Venäläinen, Ari; Pirinen, Pentti; Partonen, Timo

2009-03-01

Seasonal patterns of death from suicide are well-documented and have been attributed to climatic factors such as solar radiation and ambient temperature. However, studies on the impact of weather and climate on suicide are not consistent, and conflicting data have been reported. In this study, we performed a correlation analysis between nationwide suicide rates and weather variables in Finland during the period 1971-2003. The weather parameters studied were global solar radiation, temperature and precipitation, and a range of time spans from 1 month to 1 year were used in order to elucidate the dose-response relationship, if any, between weather variables and suicide. Single and multiple linear regression models show weak associations using 1-month and 3-month time spans, but robust associations using a 12-month time span. Cumulative global solar radiation had the best explanatory power, while average temperature and cumulative precipitation had only a minor impact on suicide rates. Our results demonstrate that winters with low global radiation may increase the risk of suicide. The best correlation found was for the 5-month period from November to March; the inter-annual variability in the cumulative global radiation for that period explained 40 % of the variation in the male suicide rate and 14 % of the variation in the female suicide rate, both at a statistically significant level. Long-term variations in global radiation may also explain, in part, the observed increasing trend in the suicide rate until 1990 and the decreasing trend since then in Finland.

Quasi-periodic Pulse Amplitude Modulation in the Accreting Millisecond Pulsar IGR J00291+5934

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bult, Peter; Doesburgh, Marieke van; Klis, Michiel van der

We introduce a new method for analyzing the aperiodic variability of coherent pulsations in accreting millisecond X-ray pulsars (AMXPs). Our method involves applying a complex frequency correction to the time-domain light curve, allowing for the aperiodic modulation of the pulse amplitude to be robustly extracted in the frequency domain. We discuss the statistical properties of the resulting modulation spectrum and show how it can be correlated with the non-pulsed emission to determine if the periodic and aperiodic variability are coupled processes. Using this method, we study the 598.88 Hz coherent pulsations of the AMXP IGR J00291+5934 as observed with themore » Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer and XMM-Newton . We demonstrate that our method easily confirms the known coupling between the pulsations and a strong 8 mHz quasi-periodic oscillation (QPO) in XMM-Newton observations. Applying our method to the RXTE observations, we further show, for the first time, that the much weaker 20 mHz QPO and its harmonic are also coupled with the pulsations. We discuss the implications of this coupling and indicate how it may be used to extract new information on the underlying accretion process.« less

The effects of high energy particles on planetary missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robinson, Paul A., Jr.

1988-01-01

Researchers review the background and motivation for the detailed study of the variability and uncertainty of the particle environment from a space systems planning perspective. The engineering concern raised by each environment is emphasized rather than the underlying physics of the magnetosphere or the sun. Missions now being planned span the short term range of one to three years to periods over ten years. Thus the engineering interest is beginning to stretch over periods of several solar cycles. Coincidentally, detailed measurements of the environment are now becoming available over that period of time. Both short term and long term environmental predictions are needed for proper mission planning. Short term predictions, perhaps based on solar indices, real time observations, or short term systematics, are very useful in near term planning -- launches, EVAs (extravehicular activities), coordinated observations, and experiments which require the magnetosphere to be in a certain state. Long term predictions of both average and extreme conditions are essential to mission design. Engineering considerations are many times driven by the worst case environment. Knowledge of the average conditions and their variability allows trade-off studies to be made, implementation of designs which degrade gracefully under multi-stress environments.

Analysis of climate and anthropogenic impacts on runoff in the Lower Pra River Basin of Ghana.

PubMed

Awotwi, Alfred; Anornu, Geophrey Kwame; Quaye-Ballard, Jonathan; Annor, Thompson; Forkuo, Eric Kwabena

2017-12-01

The Lower Pra River Basin (LPRB), located in the forest zone of southern Ghana has experienced changes due to variability in precipitation and diverse anthropogenic activities. Therefore, to maintain the functions of the ecosystem for water resources management, planning and sustainable development, it is important to differentiate the impacts of precipitation variability and anthropogenic activities on stream flow changes. We investigated the variability in runoff and quantified the contributions of precipitation and anthropogenic activities on runoff at the LPRB. Analysis of the precipitation-runoff for the period 1970-2010 revealed breakpoints in 1986, 2000, 2004 and 2010 in the LPRB. The periods influenced by anthropogenic activities were categorized into three periods 1987-2000, 2001-2004 and 2005-2010, revealing a decrease in runoff during 1987-2000 and an increase in runoff during 2001-2004 and 2005-2010. Assessment of monthly, seasonal and annual runoff depicted a significant increasing trend in the runoff time series during the dry season. Generally, runoff increased at a rate of 9.98 × 10 7 m 3 yr -1 , with precipitation variability and human activities contributing 17.4% and 82.3% respectively. The dominant small scale alluvial gold mining activity significantly contributes to the net runoff variability in LPRB.

Variability of Red Supergiants in M31 from the Palomar Transient Factory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soraisam, Monika D.; Bildsten, Lars; Drout, Maria R.; Bauer, Evan B.; Gilfanov, Marat; Kupfer, Thomas; Laher, Russ R.; Masci, Frank; Prince, Thomas A.; Kulkarni, Shrinivas R.; Matheson, Thomas; Saha, Abhijit

2018-05-01

Most massive stars end their lives as red supergiants (RSGs), a short-lived evolutionary phase when they are known to pulsate with varying amplitudes. The RSG period–luminosity (PL) relation has been measured in the Milky Way, the Magellanic Clouds and M33 for about 120 stars in total. Using over 1500 epochs of R-band monitoring from the Palomar Transient Factory survey over a five-year period, we study the variability of 255 spectroscopically cataloged RSGs in M31. We find that all RGSs brighter than M K ≈ ‑10 mag (log(L/L ⊙) > 4.8) are variable at Δm R > 0.05 mag. Our period analysis finds 63 with significant pulsation periods. Using the periods found and the known values of M K for these stars, we derive the RSG PL relation in M31 and show that it is consistent with those derived earlier in other galaxies of different metallicities. We also detect, for the first time, a sequence of likely first-overtone pulsations. Comparison to stellar evolution models from MESA confirms the first-overtone hypothesis and indicates that the variable stars in this sample have 12 M ⊙ < M < 24 M ⊙. As these RSGs are the immediate progenitors to Type II-P core-collapse supernovae (SNe), we also explore the implication of their variability in the initial-mass estimates for SN progenitors based on archival images of the progenitors. We find that this effect is small compared to the present measurement errors.

A New method for identifying possible causal relationships between CO2, total solar irradiance and global temperature change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seip, Knut L.; Grøn, Øyvind

2017-02-01

We apply a novel method based upon "before" and "after" relationships to investigate and quantify interconnections between global temperature anomaly (GTA), as response variable, and greenhouse gases (CO2) and total solar irradiance (TSI) as candidate causal variables for the period 1880 to 2010. The most likely interpretations of our results for the 6 to 8 years cyclic components of the variables are that during the period 1929 to 1936, CO2 significantly leads GTA. However, during the period 1960-2003, GTA apparently leads CO2, that is, the peaks (and troughs) in GTA are in front of, and close to, the peaks (and troughs) in CO2. For time windows outside these periods, we did not find significant before or after-relations. An alternative interpretation is that there is a shift between short (≈1.5 year) and long (≈5 years) durations between cause and effect. Relationships between GTA and TSI suggest that "inertia" of the global sea, land, and atmosphere system leads to delays longer than half their common cycle length of about 10 years. Based on the interaction patterns between the variables GTA, CO2, and TSI, we suggest the possibility that a new regime for how the variables interact started around 1960. From trend forms, and not considering physical mechanisms, we found that the trend in CO2 contributes ≈ 90 %, and the trend in TSI ≈ 10 %, to the trend in GTA during the last 130 years.

The asymmetry of U.S. monetary policy: Evidence from a threshold Taylor rule with time-varying threshold values

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Yanli; Chen, Haiqiang

2017-05-01

In this paper, we revisit the issue whether U.S. monetary policy is asymmetric by estimating a forward-looking threshold Taylor rule with quarterly data from 1955 to 2015. In order to capture the potential heterogeneity for regime shift mechanism under different economic conditions, we modify the threshold model by assuming the threshold value as a latent variable following an autoregressive (AR) dynamic process. We use the unemployment rate as the threshold variable and separate the sample into two periods: expansion periods and recession periods. Our findings support that the U.S. monetary policy operations are asymmetric in these two regimes. More precisely, the monetary authority tends to implement an active Taylor rule with a weaker response to the inflation gap (the deviation of inflation from its target) and a stronger response to the output gap (the deviation of output from its potential level) in recession periods. The threshold value, interpreted as the targeted unemployment rate of monetary authorities, exhibits significant time-varying properties, confirming the conjecture that policy makers may adjust their reference point for the unemployment rate accordingly to reflect their attitude on the health of general economy.

Optimizing Multi-Product Multi-Constraint Inventory Control Systems with Stochastic Replenishments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allah Taleizadeh, Ata; Aryanezhad, Mir-Bahador; Niaki, Seyed Taghi Akhavan

Multi-periodic inventory control problems are mainly studied employing two assumptions. The first is the continuous review, where depending on the inventory level orders can happen at any time and the other is the periodic review, where orders can only happen at the beginning of each period. In this study, we relax these assumptions and assume that the periodic replenishments are stochastic in nature. Furthermore, we assume that the periods between two replenishments are independent and identically random variables. For the problem at hand, the decision variables are of integer-type and there are two kinds of space and service level constraints for each product. We develop a model of the problem in which a combination of back-order and lost-sales are considered for the shortages. Then, we show that the model is of an integer-nonlinear-programming type and in order to solve it, a search algorithm can be utilized. We employ a simulated annealing approach and provide a numerical example to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed methodology.

Sexual behaviors and sexual risk in a prospective cohort of HIV-positive men and women in New York City, 1994-2002: implications for prevention.

PubMed

Aidala, Angela A; Lee, Gunjeong; Garbers, Samantha; Chiasson, Mary Ann

2006-02-01

As an ever-increasing number of people infected with HIV are living longer, healthier lives, concerns about continued transmission are growing along with an awareness of the need to develop "prevention for positives." This study of HIV-positive adults in New York City is the first examination of patterns of sexual behavior in a large, representative cohort of HIV-infected individuals followed over an extended time period. A total of 968 HIV-positive adults were interviewed every 6-12 months between 1994 and 2002 and reported considerable variability in sexual behaviors over time. Many persons were not sexually active at all for months at a time; some continued to have multiple partners. Over one third of the cohort had one or more periods when they had engaged in unprotected sex with a partner who was HIV-negative or status unknown (unsafe sex) and one in five reported exchanging sex. Periods of unsafe sex alternated with periods of safer sex. Predictors of sexual risk varied by gender, and among men who had sex with men, and men sexually active with women only. Contextual factors such as partner relations, housing status, and receipt of HIV services were as important as individual attributes as predictors of unsafe sex and sex exchange. The variability observed in sexual risk behavior reported over time provides new insight into the importance of engaging persons living with HIV in ongoing prevention programs.

AUTORADIOGRAPHIC STUDY OF DNA SYNTHESIS AND THE CELL CYCLE IN SPERMATOGONIA AND SPERMATOCYTES OF MOUSE TESTIS USING TRITIATED THYMIDINE

PubMed Central

Monesi, Valerio

1962-01-01

Mice were injected intraperitoneally with 15 µc of H3-thymidine. The time course of the labeling in spermatogonia and spermatocytes was studied by using autoradiography on 5 µ sections stained by the periodic acid-Schiff method and hematoxylin over a period of 57 hours after injection. Four generations of type A (called AI, AII, AIII, and AIV), one of intermediate, and one of type B spermatogonia occur in one cycle of the seminiferous epithelium. The average life span is about the same in all spermatogonia, i.e., about 27 to 30.5 hours. The average pre-DNA synthetic time, including the mitotic stages from metaphase through telophase and the portion of interphase preceding DNA synthesis, is also not very different, ranging between 7.5 and 10.5 hours. A remarkable difference exists, however, in the duration of DNA synthesis and of the post-DNA synthetic period. The average DNA synthetic time is very long and is highly variable in type B (14.5 hours), a little shorter and less variable in intermediate (12.5 hours) and AIV (13 hours) spermatogonia, and much shorter and very constant in AIII (8 hours), AII and AI (7 to 7.5 hours) spermatogonia. Conversely, the average post-DNA synthetic time, corresponding essentially to the duration of the prophase, is short and very constant in type B (4.5 hours), longer and variable in intermediate (6 hours) and AIV (8 hours) spermatogonia, and much longer and much more variable in AIII (11 hours), AII and AI (14 hours) spermatogonia. The premeiotic synthesis of DNA takes place in primary spermatocytes during the resting phase and terminates just before the visible onset of the meiotic prophase. Its average duration is 14 hours. No further synthesis of DNA takes place in later stages of spermatogenesis. PMID:14475361

The variable rotation period of the inner region of Saturn's plasma disk.

PubMed

Gurnett, D A; Persoon, A M; Kurth, W S; Groene, J B; Averkamp, T F; Dougherty, M K; Southwood, D J

2007-04-20

We show that the plasma and magnetic fields in the inner region of Saturn's plasma disk rotate in synchronism with the time-variable modulation period of Saturn's kilometric radio emission. This relation suggests that the radio modulation has its origins in the inner region of the plasma disk, most likely from a centrifugally driven convective instability and an associated plasma outflow that slowly slips in phase relative to Saturn's internal rotation. The slippage rate is determined by the electrodynamic coupling of the plasma disk to Saturn and by the drag force exerted by its interaction with the Enceladus neutral gas torus.

Stability and predictors of change in salivary cortisol measures over six years: MESA.

PubMed

Wang, Xu; Sánchez, Brisa N; Golden, Sherita Hill; Shrager, Sandi; Kirschbaum, Clemens; Karlamangla, Arun S; Seeman, Teresa E; Roux, Ana V Diez

2014-11-01

A major challenge in characterizing features of the daily cortisol curve is variability in features over time. Few studies have examined the stability of daily features of the cortisol curve over long periods or the predictors of long term changes. Repeated salivary cortisol measures on 580 adults from the MESA Stress study were used to examine the stability of various features of the daily cortisol curve (wakeup value, the cortisol awakening response (CAR), the early and late decline slope and the area under the curve (AUC)), over short periods (several days) and long periods (approximately 6-years) and to investigate the association of demographic factors with the changes. Intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) were used to estimate the short and long term stability. Piecewise linear mixed models were used to assess factors associated with changes in features over time. For most features, short term stability (ICCs: 0.17-0.74) was higher than long term stability (ICCs: 0.05-0.42), and long term stability was highest when several days were averaged for each time point. The decline over the day showed the highest long term stability: when several days for each wave were averaged the stability of the daily decline slope across 6 years was similar (or higher) than the stability across short periods. AUC had high stability over short periods (ICCs: 0.65-0.74) but much lower stability across long periods (ICC: 0.05). All features of daily cortisol curve investigated changed significantly over the approximately 6 year follow-up period. The wakeup cortisol became higher; the CAR became smaller; both the early and late decline became flatter; and the AUC became larger. Hispanics experienced significantly larger increases in the wakeup value; and African-Americans and Hispanics showed less flattening over time of the early decline slope than Non-Hispanic Whites. Our findings have implications for characterization of features in studies linking cortisol to health outcomes. The presence of variability over time suggests opportunities for future investigation of the predictors of changes over time as well as the links between these changes and health outcomes. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Discovery of deep eclipses in the cataclysmic variable IPHAS J051814.33+294113.0

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kozhevnikov, V. P.

2018-06-01

Performing the photometric observations of the cataclysmic variable IPHAS J051814.33+294113.0, we discovered very deep eclipses. The observations were obtained over 14 nights, had a total duration of 56 hours and covered one year. The large time span, during which we observed the eclipses, allowed us to measure the orbital period in IPHAS J051814.33+294113.0 with high precision, P_{orb}=0.20603098± 0.00000025 d. The prominent parts of the eclipses lasted 0.1± 0.01 phases or 30± 3 min. The depth of the eclipses was variable in the range 1.8-2.9 mag. The average eclipse depth was equal to 2.42± 0.06 mag. The prominent parts of the eclipses revealed a smooth and symmetric shape. We derived the eclipse ephemeris, which, according to the precision of the orbital period, has a formal validity time of 500 years. This ephemeris can be useful for future investigations of the long-term period changes. During the latter four observational nights in 2017 January, we observed the sharp brightness decrease of IPHAS J051814.33+294113.0 by 2.3 mag. This brightness decrease imitated the end of the dwarf nova outburst. However, the long-term light curve of IPHAS J051814.33+294113.0 obtained in the course of the Catalina Sky Survey during 8 years showed no dwarf nova outbursts. From this we conclude that IPHAS J051814.33+294113.0 is a novalike variable. Moreover, the sharp brightness decrease, which we observed in IPHAS J051814.33+294113.0, suggests that this novalike variable belongs to the VY Scl-subtype. Due to very deep eclipses, IPHAS J051814.33+294113.0 is suitable to study the accretion disc structure using eclipse mapping techniques. Because this novalike variable has the long orbital period, it is of interest to determine the masses of the stellar components from radial velocity measurements. Then, our precise eclipse ephemeris can be useful to the phasing of spectroscopic data.

Analysis of equivalent widths of alluvial channels and application for instream habitat in the Rio Grande

Treesearch

Claudia A. Leon

2003-01-01

Rivers are natural systems that adjust to variable water and sediment discharges. Channels with spatial variability in width that are managed to maintain constant widths over a period of time are able to transport the same water and sediment discharges by adjusting the bed slope. Methods developed to de ne equilibrium hydraulic geometry characteristics of alluvial...

The Predictability of Large-Scale, Short-Period Variability in the Philippine Sea and the Influence of Such Variability on Long-Range acoustic Propagation

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-03-31

with the black line indicating an average of these travel times. Altimetry data from 2000- 2007 were used to obtain the predictions, hence the...Vol. 2), Venice, Italy, 21-25 September 2009, Hall, J., Harrison, D.E. & Stammer , D., Eds., ESA Publication WPP-306. Dushaw, B. D., P. F. Worcester

Logging effects on streamflow: water yields and summer flows at Caspar Creek in northwestern California

Treesearch

Elizabeth T. Keppeler; Robert R. Ziemer

1990-01-01

Streamflow data for a 21-year period were analyzed to determine the effects of selective tractor harvesting of second-growth Douglas fir and redwood forest on the volume, timing, and duration of low flows and annual water yield in northwestern California. The flow response to logging was highly variable. Some of this variability was correlated with antecedent...

Bayesian Models for Streamflow and River Network Reconstruction using Tree Rings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ravindranath, A.; Devineni, N.

2016-12-01

Water systems face non-stationary, dynamically shifting risks due to shifting societal conditions and systematic long-term variations in climate manifesting as quasi-periodic behavior on multi-decadal time scales. Water systems are thus vulnerable to long periods of wet or dry hydroclimatic conditions. Streamflow is a major component of water systems and a primary means by which water is transported to serve ecosystems' and human needs. Thus, our concern is in understanding streamflow variability. Climate variability and impacts on water resources are crucial factors affecting streamflow, and multi-scale variability increases risk to water sustainability and systems. Dam operations are necessary for collecting water brought by streamflow while maintaining downstream ecological health. Rules governing dam operations are based on streamflow records that are woefully short compared to periods of systematic variation present in the climatic factors driving streamflow variability and non-stationarity. We use hierarchical Bayesian regression methods in order to reconstruct paleo-streamflow records for dams within a basin using paleoclimate proxies (e.g. tree rings) to guide the reconstructions. The riverine flow network for the entire basin is subsequently modeled hierarchically using feeder stream and tributary flows. This is a starting point in analyzing streamflow variability and risks to water systems, and developing a scientifically-informed dynamic risk management framework for formulating dam operations and water policies to best hedge such risks. We will apply this work to the Missouri and Delaware River Basins (DRB). Preliminary results of streamflow reconstructions for eight dams in the upper DRB using standard Gaussian regression with regional tree ring chronologies give streamflow records that now span two to two and a half centuries, and modestly smoothed versions of these reconstructed flows indicate physically-justifiable trends in the time series.

Distinct features of intraspecific and intrapopulation variability of the skull size in the red fox.

PubMed

Gos'kov, A M; Bol'shakov, V N; Korytin, N S

2017-05-01

The range of chronographic variability of the average size of the skull in the red fox (data collected by the authors) from a compact area in the Middle Urals has been assessed for a 30-year period, and the results obtained have been compared with the published data on the geographical variability within the vast species range. The range of changes of the average dimensions of the skull over time spanned almost the entire range of geographical variability. Therefore, the problem of search for factors that determine the morphological diversity arises.

The Chaotic Long-term X-ray Variability of 4U 1705-44

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phillipson, R. A.; Boyd, P. T.; Smale, A. P.

2018-04-01

The low-mass X-ray binary 4U1705-44 exhibits dramatic long-term X-ray time variability with a timescale of several hundred days. The All-Sky Monitor (ASM) aboard the Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer (RXTE) and the Japanese Monitor of All-sky X-ray Image (MAXI) aboard the International Space Station together have continuously observed the source from December 1995 through May 2014. The combined ASM-MAXI data provide a continuous time series over fifty times the length of the timescale of interest. Topological analysis can help us identify 'fingerprints' in the phase-space of a system unique to its equations of motion. The Birman-Williams theorem postulates that if such fingerprints are the same between two systems, then their equations of motion must be closely related. The phase-space embedding of the source light curve shows a strong resemblance to the double-welled nonlinear Duffing oscillator. We explore a range of parameters for which the Duffing oscillator closely mirrors the time evolution of 4U1705-44. We extract low period, unstable periodic orbits from the 4U1705-44 and Duffing time series and compare their topological information. The Duffing and 4U1705-44 topological properties are identical, providing strong evidence that they share the same underlying template. This suggests that we can look to the Duffing equation to help guide the development of a physical model to describe the long-term X-ray variability of this and other similarly behaved X-ray binary systems.

Dengue Dynamics in Binh Thuan Province, Southern Vietnam: Periodicity, Synchronicity and Climate Variability

PubMed Central

Thai, Khoa T. D.; Cazelles, Bernard; Nguyen, Nam Van; Vo, Long Thi; Boni, Maciej F.; Farrar, Jeremy; Simmons, Cameron P.; van Doorn, H. Rogier; de Vries, Peter J.

2010-01-01

Background Dengue is a major global public health problem with increasing incidence and geographic spread. The epidemiology is complex with long inter-epidemic intervals and endemic with seasonal fluctuations. This study was initiated to investigate dengue transmission dynamics in Binh Thuan province, southern Vietnam. Methodology Wavelet analyses were performed on time series of monthly notified dengue cases from January 1994 to June 2009 (i) to detect and quantify dengue periodicity, (ii) to describe synchrony patterns in both time and space, (iii) to investigate the spatio-temporal waves and (iv) to associate the relationship between dengue incidence and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices in Binh Thuan province, southern Vietnam. Principal Findings We demonstrate a continuous annual mode of oscillation and a multi-annual cycle of around 2–3-years was solely observed from 1996–2001. Synchrony in time and between districts was detected for both the annual and 2–3-year cycle. Phase differences used to describe the spatio-temporal patterns suggested that the seasonal wave of infection was either synchronous among all districts or moving away from Phan Thiet district. The 2–3-year periodic wave was moving towards, rather than away from Phan Thiet district. A strong non-stationary association between ENSO indices and climate variables with dengue incidence in the 2–3-year periodic band was found. Conclusions A multi-annual mode of oscillation was observed and these 2–3-year waves of infection probably started outside Binh Thuan province. Associations with climatic variables were observed with dengue incidence. Here, we have provided insight in dengue population transmission dynamics over the past 14.5 years. Further studies on an extensive time series dataset are needed to test the hypothesis that epidemics emanate from larger cities in southern Vietnam. PMID:20644621

The chaotic long-term X-ray variability of 4U 1705-44

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phillipson, R. A.; Boyd, P. T.; Smale, A. P.

2018-07-01

The low-mass X-ray binary 4U1705-44 exhibits dramatic long-term X-ray time variability with a time-scale of several hundred days. The All-Sky Monitor (ASM) aboard the Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer (RXTE) and the Japanese Monitor of All-sky X-ray Image (MAXI) aboard the International Space Station together have continuously observed the source from 1995 December through 2014 May. The combined ASM-MAXI data provide a continuous time series over 50 times the length of the time-scale of interest. Topological analysis can help us identify `fingerprints' in the phase space of a system unique to its equations of motion. The Birman-Williams theorem postulates that if such fingerprints are the same between two systems, then their equations of motion must be closely related. The phase-space embedding of the source light curve shows a strong resemblance to the double-welled non-linear Duffing oscillator. We explore a range of parameters for which the Duffing oscillator closely mirrors the time evolution of 4U1705-44. We extract low period, unstable periodic orbits from the 4U1705-44 and Duffing time series and compare their topological information. The Duffing and 4U1705-44 topological properties are identical, providing strong evidence that they share the same underlying template. This suggests that we can look to the Duffing equation to help guide the development of a physical model to describe the long-term X-ray variability of this and other similarly behaved X-ray binary systems.

Contrasting scaling properties of interglacial and glacial climates

PubMed Central

Shao, Zhi-Gang; Ditlevsen, Peter D.

2016-01-01

Understanding natural climate variability is essential for assessments of climate change. This is reflected in the scaling properties of climate records. The scaling exponents of the interglacial and the glacial climates are fundamentally different. The Holocene record is monofractal, with a scaling exponent H∼0.7. On the contrary, the glacial record is multifractal, with a significantly higher scaling exponent H∼1.2, indicating a longer persistence time and stronger nonlinearities in the glacial climate. The glacial climate is dominated by the strong multi-millennial Dansgaard–Oeschger (DO) events influencing the long-time correlation. However, by separately analysing the last glacial maximum lacking DO events, here we find the same scaling for that period as for the full glacial period. The unbroken scaling thus indicates that the DO events are part of the natural variability and not externally triggered. At glacial time scales, there is a scale break to a trivial scaling, contrasting the DO events from the similarly saw-tooth-shaped glacial cycles. PMID:26980084

The tropopause cold trap in the Australian Monsoon during STEP/AMEX 1987

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Selkirk, Henry B.

1993-01-01

The relationship between deep convection and tropopause cold trap conditions is examined for the tropical northern Australia region during the 1986-87 summer monsoon season, emphasizing the Australia Monsoon Experiment (AMEX) period when the NASA Stratosphere-Troposphere Exchange Project (STEP) was being conducted. The factors related to the spatial and temporal variability of the cold point potential temperature (CPPT) are investigated. A framework is developed for describing the relationships among surface average equivalent potential temperature in the surface layer (AEPTSL) the height of deep convection, and stratosphere-troposphere exchange. The time-mean pattern of convection, large-scale circulation, and surface AEPTSL in the Australian monsoon and the evolution of the convective environment during the monsoon period and the extended transition season which preceded it are described. The time-mean fields of cold point level variables are examined and the statistical relationships between mean CPPT, surface AEPTSL, and deep convection are described. Day-to-day variations of CPPT are examined in terms of these time mean relationships.

Interactions between sleeping position and feeding on cardiorespiratory activity in preterm infants.

PubMed

Fifer, William P; Myers, Michael M; Sahni, Rakesh; Ohira-Kist, Kiyoko; Kashyap, Sudha; Stark, Raymond I; Schulze, Karl F

2005-11-01

Infants sleeping in the prone position are at greater risk for sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS). Sleep position-dependent changes in cardiorespiratory activity may contribute to this increased risk. Cardiorespiratory activity is also affected by feeding. Twenty prematurely-born infants were studied at 31-36 weeks postconceptional age while sleeping in the prone and supine positions. Heart rate, respiratory rate, and patterns of variability were recorded during interfeed intervals, and effects of position and time after feeding were analyzed by repeated measures analyses of variance. There were significant effects of both sleeping position and time after feeding. Heart rate is higher and heart period variability is lower in the prone position, and the effects of sleeping position on cardiac functioning are more pronounced during the middle of the intrafeed interval. In preterm infants, autonomic responses to nutrient processing modulate the cardiorespiratory effects of sleeping position. Prone sleeping risk may vary with time after feeding. Copyright 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A Primer on Longitudinal Data Analysis in Education. Technical Report #1320

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nese, Joseph F. T.; Lai, Cheng-Fei; Anderson, Daniel

2013-01-01

Longitudinal data analysis in education is the study growth over time. A longitudinal study is one in which repeated observations of the same variables are recorded for the same individuals over a period of time. This type of research is known by many names (e.g., time series analysis or repeated measures design), each of which can imply subtle…

The periodicity of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum in Venezuela.

PubMed

Grillet, María-Eugenia; El Souki, Mayida; Laguna, Francisco; León, José Rafael

2014-01-01

We investigated the periodicity of Plasmodium vivax and P. falciparum incidence in time-series of malaria data (1990-2010) from three endemic regions in Venezuela. In particular, we determined whether disease epidemics were related to local climate variability and regional climate anomalies such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Malaria periodicity was found to exhibit unique features in each studied region. Significant multi-annual cycles of 2- to about 6-year periods were identified. The inter-annual variability of malaria cases was coherent with that of SSTs (ENSO), mainly at temporal scales within the 3-6 year periods. Additionally, malaria cases were intensified approximately 1 year after an El Niño event, a pattern that highlights the role of climate inter-annual variability in the epidemic patterns. Rainfall mediated the effect of ENSO on malaria locally. Particularly, rains from the last phase of the season had a critical role in the temporal dynamics of Plasmodium. The malaria-climate relationship was complex and transient, varying in strength with the region and species. By identifying temporal cycles of malaria we have made a first step in predicting high-risk years in Venezuela. Our findings emphasize the importance of analyzing high-resolution spatial-temporal data to better understand malaria transmission dynamics. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Subtropical Climate Variability since the Last Glacial Maximum from Speleothem Precipitation Reconstructions in Florida

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polk, J.; van Beynen, P.; DeLong, K. L.; Asmerom, Y.; Polyak, V. J.

2017-12-01

Teleconnections between the tropical-subtropical regions of the Americas since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), particularly the Mid- to Late-Holocene, and high-resolution proxy records refining climate variability over this period continue to receive increasing attention. Here, we present a high-resolution, precisely dated speleothem record spanning multiple periods of time since the LGM ( 30 ka) for the Florida peninsula. The data indicate that the amount effect plays a significant role in determining the isotopic signal of the speleothem calcite. Collectively, the records indicate distinct differences in climate in the region between the LGM, Mid-Holocene, and Late Holocene, including a progressive shift in ocean composition and precipitation isotopic values through the period, suggesting Florida's sensitivity to regional and global climatic shifts. Comparisons between speleothem δ18O values and Gulf of Mexico marine records reveal a strong connection between the Gulf region and the terrestrial subtropical climate in the Late Holocene, while the North Atlantic's influence is clear in the earlier portions of the record. Warmer sea surface temperatures correspond to enhanced evaporation, leading to more intense atmospheric convection in Florida, and thereby modulating the isotopic composition of rainfall above the cave. These regional signals in climate extend from the subtropics to the tropics, with a clear covariance between the speleothem signal and other proxy records from around the region, as well as global agreement during the LGM period with other records. These latter connections appear to be driven by changes in the mean position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and time series analysis of the δ18O values reveals significant multidecadal periodicities in the record, which are evidenced by agreement with the AMV and other multidecadal influences (NAO and PDO) likely having varying influence throughout the period of record. The climate variability recorded in our record suggests complex responses to major and abrupt shifts during these periods, likely due to Florida's subtropical location and the influence of multiple climate forcing mechanisms in the region.

What can we learn from simulating Stratospheric Sudden Warming periods with the Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere-Electrodynamics GCM?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maute, A. I.; Hagan, M. E.; Roble, R. G.; Richmond, A. D.; Yudin, V. A.; Liu, H.; Goncharenko, L. P.; Burns, A. G.; Maruyama, N.

2013-12-01

The ionosphere-thermosphere system is not only influenced from geospace but also by meteorological variability. Ionospheric observations of GPS TEC during the current solar cycle have shown that the meteorological variability is important during solar minimum, but also can have significant ionospheric effects during solar medium to maximum conditions. Numerical models can be used to help understand the mechanisms that couple the lower and upper atmosphere over the solar cycle. Numerical modelers invoke different methods to simulate realistic, specified events of meteorological variability, e.g. specify the lower boundary forcing, nudge the middle atmosphere, data assimilation. To study the vertical coupling, we first need to assess the numerical models and the various methods used to simulate realistic events with respect to the dynamics of the mesosphere-lower thermosphere (MLT) region, the electrodynamics, and the ionosphere. This study focuses on Stratospheric Sudden Warming (SSW) periods since these are associated with a strongly disturbed middle atmosphere which can have effects up to the ionosphere. We will use the NCAR Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation model (TIME-GCM) to examine several recent SSW periods, e.g. 2009, 2012, and 2013. The SSW period in TIME-GCM will be specified in three different ways: 1. using reanalysis data to specify the lower boundary; 2. nudging the neutral atmosphere (temperature and winds) with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM)/Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5) results; 3. nudging the background atmosphere (temperature and winds) with WACCM/GEOS5 results. The different forcing methods will be evaluated for the SSW periods with respect to the dynamics of the MLT region, the low latitude vertical drift changes, and the ionospheric effects for the different SSW periods. With the help of ionospheric data at different longitudinal sectors it will be possible to assess the simulations of the SSW periods and provide guidance for future studies.

THE ROTATION PERIOD AND LIGHT-CURVE AMPLITUDE OF KUIPER BELT DWARF PLANET 136472 MAKEMAKE (2005 FY9)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Heinze, A. N.; DeLahunta, Daniel

Kuiper Belt dwarf planet 136472 Makemake, formerly known as 2005 FY9, is currently the third-largest known object in the Kuiper Belt, after the dwarf planets Pluto and Eris. It is currently second only to Pluto in apparent brightness, due to Eris' much larger heliocentric distance. Makemake shows very little photometric variability, which has prevented confident determination of its rotation period until now. Using extremely precise time-series photometry, we find that the rotation period of Makemake is 7.7710 {+-} 0.0030 hr, where the uncertainty is a 90% confidence interval. An alias period is detected at 11.41 hr, but is determined withmore » approximately 95% confidence not to be the true period. Makemake's 7.77 hr rotation period is in the typical range for Kuiper Belt objects, consistent with Makemake's apparent lack of a substantial satellite to alter its rotation through tides. The amplitude of Makemake's photometric light curve is 0.0286 {+-} 0.0016 mag in V. This amplitude is about 10 times less than Pluto's, which is surprising given the two objects' similar sizes and spectral characteristics. Makemake's photometric variability is instead similar to that of Eris, which is so small that no confident rotation period has yet been determined. It has been suggested that dwarf planets such as Makemake and Eris, both farther from the Sun and colder than Pluto, exhibit lower photometric variability because they are covered with a uniform layer of frost. Such a frost is probably the correct explanation for Eris. However, it may be inconsistent with the spectrum of Makemake, which resembles reddish Pluto more than neutrally colored Eris. Makemake may instead be a more Pluto-like object that we observe at present with a nearly pole-on viewing geometry-a possibility that can be tested with continuing observations over the coming decades.« less

The Effect of Seasonal and Long-Period Geopotential Variations on the GPS Orbits

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Melachroinos, Stavros A.; Lemoine, Frank G.; Chinn, Douglas S.; Zelensky, Nikita P.; Nicholas, Joseph B.; Beckley, Brian D.

2013-01-01

We examine the impact of using seasonal and long-period time-variable gravity field (TVG) models on GPS orbit determination, through simulations from 1994 to 2012. The models of time-variable gravity that we test include the GRGS release RL02 GRACE-derived 10-day gravity field models up to degree and order 20 (grgs20x20), a 4 x 4 series of weekly coefficients using GGM03S as a base derived from SLR and DORIS tracking to 11 satellites (tvg4x4), and a harmonic fit to the above 4 x 4 SLR-DORIS time series (goco2s_fit2). These detailed models are compared to GPS orbit simulations using a reference model (stdtvg) based on the International Earth Rotation Service (IERS) and International GNSS Service (IGS) repro1 standards. We find that the new TVG modeling produces significant along, cross-track orbit differences as well as annual, semi-annual, draconitic and long-period effects in the Helmert translation parameters (Tx, Ty, Tz) of the GPS orbits with magnitudes of several mm. We show that the simplistic TVG modeling approach used by all of the IGS Analysis Centers, which is based on the models provided by the IERS standards, becomes progressively less adequate following 2006 when compared to the seasonal and long-period TVG models.

The Orbital Period of the Classical Nova V458 Vul

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goranskij, V. P.; Metlova, N. V.; Barsukova, E. A.; Burenkov, A. N.; Soloviev, V. Ya.

2008-07-01

Classical nova V458 Vul (N Vul 2007 No.1) was detected as a supersoft X-ray source (SSS) by the Swift XRT several times in the time range between 2007 October 18 and 2008 June 18 (J. Drake et al., ATel #1246 and #1603). Our V photometry shows the plateau in the light curve continued since January till June 2008. This feature accompanies usually the SSS phases in some classical novae. The fragmentary monitoring during plateau shows night- to-night variability with the amplitudes between 1.2 and 0.4 mag and rapid variability by 0.1 mag in the time scale of an hour.

VARIABILITY IN PROTO-PLANETARY NEBULAE. III. LIGHT CURVE STUDIES OF MAGELLANIC CLOUD CARBON-RICH OBJECTS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hrivnak, Bruce J.; Lu, Wenxian; Volk, Kevin

2015-05-20

We have investigated the light variability in a sample of 22 carbon-rich post-AGB stars in the LMC and SMC, based primarily on photometric data from the Optical Gravitational Lensing Experiment survey. All are found to vary. Dominant periods are found in eight of them; these periods range from 49 to 157 days, and most of these stars have F spectral types. These eight are found to be similar to the Milky Way Galaxy (MWG) carbon-rich proto-planetary nebulae (PPNs) in several ways: (a) they are in the same period range of ∼38 to ∼160 days, (b) they have similar spectral types,more » (c) they are (all but one) redder when fainter, (d) they have multiple periods, closely spaced in time, with an average ratio of secondary to primary period of ∼1.0, and as an ensemble, (e) they show a trend of decreasing period with increasing temperature, and (f) they show a trend of decreasing amplitude with decreasing period. However, they possibly differ in that the decreasing trend of period with temperature may be slightly offset from that of the MWG. These eight are classified as PPNs. The other 14 all show evidence of variability on shorter timescales. They are likely hotter PPNs or young planetary nebulae. However, in the MWG the numbers of PPNs peak in the F−G spectral types, while it appears that in the LMC they peak at a hotter B spectral type. One of the periodic ones shows a small, R Coronae Borealis type light curve drop.« less

Joint variability of global runoff and global sea surface temperatures

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCabe, G.J.; Wolock, D.M.

2008-01-01

Global land surface runoff and sea surface temperatures (SST) are analyzed to identify the primary modes of variability of these hydroclimatic data for the period 1905-2002. A monthly water-balance model first is used with global monthly temperature and precipitation data to compute time series of annual gridded runoff for the analysis period. The annual runoff time series data are combined with gridded annual sea surface temperature data, and the combined dataset is subjected to a principal components analysis (PCA) to identify the primary modes of variability. The first three components from the PCA explain 29% of the total variability in the combined runoff/SST dataset. The first component explains 15% of the total variance and primarily represents long-term trends in the data. The long-term trends in SSTs are evident as warming in all of the oceans. The associated long-term trends in runoff suggest increasing flows for parts of North America, South America, Eurasia, and Australia; decreasing runoff is most notable in western Africa. The second principal component explains 9% of the total variance and reflects variability of the El Ni??o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its associated influence on global annual runoff patterns. The third component explains 5% of the total variance and indicates a response of global annual runoff to variability in North Aflantic SSTs. The association between runoff and North Atlantic SSTs may explain an apparent steplike change in runoff that occurred around 1970 for a number of continental regions.

X-ray variability of SS 433: Evidence for supercritical accretion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Atapin, K. E.; Fabrika, S. N.

2016-08-01

We study the X-ray variability of SS 433 based on data from the ASCA observatory and the MAXI and RXTE/ASM monitoring missions. Based on the ASCA data, we have constructed the power spectrum of SS 433 in the frequency range from 10-6 to 0.1 Hz, which confirms the presence of a flat portion in the spectrum at frequencies 3 × 10-5-10-3 Hz. The periodic variability (precession, nutation, eclipses) begins to dominate significantly over the stochastic variability at lower frequencies, which does not allow the stochastic variability to be studied reliably. The model in which the flat portion extends to 9.5 × 10-6 Hz, while a power-law rise with an index of 2.6 occurs below provides the best agreement with the observations. The nutational oscillations of the jets with a period of about three days suggests that the time for the passage of material through the disk is less than this value. At frequencies below 4 × 10-6 Hz, the shape of the power spectrum probably does not reflect the disk structure but is determined by external factors, for example, by a change in the amount of material supplied by the donor. The flat portion can arise from a rapid decrease in the viscous time in the supercritical or radiative disk zones. The flat spectrum is associated with the variability of the X-ray jets that are formed in the supercritical disk region.

Postural stabilization after single-leg vertical jump in individuals with chronic ankle instability.

PubMed

Nunes, Guilherme S; de Noronha, Marcos

2016-11-01

To investigate the impact different ways to define reference balance can have when analysing time to stabilization (TTS). Secondarily, to investigate the difference in TTS between people with chronic ankle instability (CAI) and healthy controls. Cross-sectional study. Laboratory. Fifty recreational athletes (25 CAI, 25 controls). TTS of the center of pressure (CoP) after maximal single-leg vertical jump using as reference method the single-leg stance, pre-jump period, and post-jump period; and the CoP variability during the reference methods. The post-jump reference period had lower values for TTS in the anterior-posterior (AP) direction when compared to single-leg stance (P = 0.001) and to pre-jump (P = 0.002). For TTS in the medio-lateral (ML) direction, the post-jump reference period showed lower TTS when compared to single-leg stance (P = 0.01). We found no difference between CAI and control group for TTS for any direction. The CAI group showed more CoP variability than control group in the single-leg stance reference period for both directions. Different reference periods will produce different results for TTS. There is no difference in TTS after a maximum vertical jump between groups. People with CAI have more CoP variability in both directions during single-leg stance. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

BOKS 45906: a CV with an Orbital Period of 56.6 Min in the Kepler Field?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ramsay, Gavin; Howell, Steve B.; Wood, Matt A.; Smale, Alan; Barclay, Thomas; Seebode, Sally A.; Gelino, Dawn; Still, Martin; Cannizzo, John K.

2013-01-01

BOKS 45906 was found to be a blue source in the Burrell-Optical-Kepler Survey which showed a 3 magnitude outburst lasting approximately 5 days. We present the Kepler light curve of this source which covers nearly 3 years. We find that it is in a faint optical state for approximately half the time and shows a series of outbursts separated by distinct dips in flux. Using data with 1 minute sampling, we find clear evidence that in its low state BOKS 45906 shows a flux variability on a period of 56.5574 plus or minus 0.0014 minutes and a semi-amplitude of approximately 3 percent. Since we can phase all the 1 minute cadence data on a common ephemeris using this period, it is probable that 56.56 minutes is the binary orbital period. Optical spectra of BOKS 45906 show the presence of Balmer lines in emission indicating it is not an AM CVn (pure Helium) binary. Swift data show that it is a weak X-ray source and is weakly detected in the bluest of the UVOT filters. We conclude that BOKS 45906 is a cataclysmic variable with a period shorter than the 'period-bounce' systems and therefore BOKS 45906 could be the first helium-rich cataclysmic variable detected in the Kepler field.

Past occurrences of hypoxia in the Baltic Sea and the role of climate variability, environmental change and human impact

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zillén, Lovisa; Conley, Daniel J.; Andrén, Thomas; Andrén, Elinor; Björck, Svante

2008-12-01

The hypoxic zone in the Baltic Sea has increased in area about four times since 1960 and widespread oxygen deficiency has severely reduced macro benthic communities below the halocline in the Baltic Proper and the Gulf of Finland, which in turn has affected food chain dynamics, fish habitats and fisheries in the entire Baltic Sea. The cause of increased hypoxia is believed to be enhanced eutrophication through increased anthropogenic input of nutrients, such as nitrogen and phosphorus. However, the spatial variability of hypoxia on long time-scales is poorly known: and so are the driving mechanisms. We review the occurrence of hypoxia in modern time (last c. 50 years), modern historical time (AD 1950-1800) and during the more distant past (the last c. 10 000 years) and explore the role of climate variability, environmental change and human impact. We present a compilation of proxy records of hypoxia (laminated sediments) based on long sediment cores from the Baltic Sea. The cumulated results show that the deeper depressions of the Baltic Sea have experienced intermittent hypoxia during most of the Holocene and that regular laminations started to form c. 8500-7800 cal. yr BP ago, in association with the formation of a permanent halocline at the transition between the Early Littorina Sea and the Littorina Sea s. str. Laminated sediments were deposited during three main periods (i.e. between c. 8000-4000, 2000-800 cal. yr BP and subsequent to AD 1800) which overlap the Holocene Thermal Maximum (c. 9000-5000 cal. yr BP), the Medieval Warm Period (c. AD 750-1200) and the modern historical period (AD 1800 to present) and coincide with intervals of high surface salinity (at least during the Littorina s. str.) and high total organic carbon content. This study implies that there may be a correlation between climate variability in the past and the state of the marine environment, where milder and dryer periods with less freshwater run-off correspond to increased salinities and higher accumulation of organic carbon resulting in amplified hypoxia and enlarged distribution of laminated sediments. We suggest that hydrology changes in the drainage area on long time-scales have, as well as the inflow of saltier North Sea waters, controlled the deep oxic conditions in the Baltic Sea and that such changes have followed the general Holocene climate development in Northwest Europe. Increased hypoxia during the Medieval Warm Period also correlates with large-scale changes in land use that occurred in much of the Baltic Sea watershed during the early-medieval expansion. We suggest that hypoxia during this period in the Baltic Sea was not only caused by climate, but increased human impact was most likely an additional trigger. Large areas of the Baltic Sea have experienced intermittent hypoxic from at least AD 1900 with laminated sediments present in the Gotland Basin in the Baltic Proper since then and up to present time. This period coincides with the industrial revolution in Northwestern Europe which started around AD 1850, when population grew, cutting of drainage ditches intensified, and agricultural and forest industry expanded extensively.

Risk factors for absenteeism due to sick leave in the petroleum industry

PubMed Central

Oenning, Nágila Soares Xavier; Carvalho, Fernando Martins; Lima, Veronica Maria Cadena

2014-01-01

OBJECTIVE To identify risk factors for absenteeism among workers with sick leave in an oil company. METHODS A case-control study (120 cases and 656 controls) nested in a retrospective cohort study following up all employees of an oil company in the North-Northeast of Brazil from 2007 to 2009. The response variable used to represent absenteeism with sick leave was the average incidence of sick leave, defined as the ratio between total sick days and potential working days in the period. Logistic regression techniques were used to investigate the association between average incidence of sick leave > 5.0% over the period and the variables sex, position, age, time at work, shift work, smoking, arterial hypertension, body mass index, physical activity, coronary risk, sleep, glycemia, non-managed diabetes, cardiovascular, digestive, musculoskeletal, neurological and neoplastic diseases, straining body positioning during work, satisfaction at work, relationship with management, and concentrated attention at work. RESULTS Average incidence of sick leave higher than 5.0% in the cohort period was 15.5%. The logistic model revealed that workers with average incidence of sick leave higher than 5.0% were 2.6 times more likely to be female; 2.0 time more likely to be smokers; 1.8 time more likely to be former smokers; 2.2 times more likely to report abnormal sleep and 10.5 times more likely to report dissatisfaction with their than workers with average incidence of sick leave ≤ 5.0% in the period. CONCLUSIONS In this population, female gender, being a smoker or a former smoker, reporting dissatisfaction with the job and reporting abnormal sleep are good predictors of occupational absenteeism with sick leave. PMID:24789643

Associations between a history of breast feeding, malocclusion and parafunctional habits in Puerto Rican children.

PubMed

López Del Valle, Lydia M; Singh, G Dave; Feliciano, Nilma; Machuca, María del Carmen

2006-03-01

Studies relating breast-feeding, malocclusion and parafunctional habits in young children are scarce. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the associations of a history of breast-feeding, incidence of malocclusion and parafunctional habits. The dental records of a sample of 540 children aged 6 to 72 months screened for oral conditions and behavioral risk factors were evaluated for variables such as a history of breastfeeding, malocclusion and parafunctional habits. Descriptive statistics using the EPI-INFO Program and Chi-square test at the 0.05 level of probability were performed. The results showed that the mean age of the children was 28 months +/- 14. The mothers' mean age was 26.4 years +/- 6. The prevalence of breast-feeding was 34% with a mean breast-feeding time period of 3 m +/- 3.7. About 95% of the children had a history of bottle-feeding and 90% showed some evidence of malocclusion at the time of dental examination. The main malocclusion problems were space deficiency (closed contacts among incisors) (31%), open bites (6%) and crossbites (5%). A habit of thumb sucking was reported in 32% of the cases and pacifier use in 21%. there were significant differences for the following variables: mother's age and breast-feeding time period; number of children in family and breast-feeding time period; breast-feeding history and breast-feeding time with bottle use, malocclusion and thumb sucking habit; and gender and thumb-sucking habit. It is concluded that breast-feeding practices and time period are behavioral factors that contribute in the prevention of malocclusion in addition to decreasing the practice of parafunctional habits in preschool children.

The P Wave Time-Frequency Variability Reflects Atrial Conduction Defects before Paroxysmal Atrial Fibrillation.

PubMed

Alcaraz, Raúl; Martínez, Arturo; Rieta, José J

2015-09-01

The study of atrial conduction defects associated with the onset of paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (PAF) can be addressed by analyzing the P wave from the surface electrocardiogram (ECG). Traditionally, signal-averaged ECGs have been mostly used for this purpose. However, this alternative hinders the possibility to quantify every single P wave, its variability over time, as well as to obtain complimentary and evolving information about the arrhythmia. This work analyzes the time progression of several time and frequency P wave features as potential indicators of atrial conduction variability several hours preceding the onset of PAF. The longest sinus rhythm interval from 24-hour Holter recordings of 46 PAF patients was selected. Next, the 2 hours before the onset of PAF were extracted and divided into two 1-hour periods. Every single P wave was automatically delineated and characterized by 16 time and frequency metrics, such as its duration, absolute energy in several frequency bands and high-to-low-frequency energy ratios. Finally, the P wave variability over each 1-hour period was estimated from the 16 features making use of a least-squares linear fitting. As a reference, the same parameters were also estimated from a set of 1-hour ECG segments randomly chosen from a control group of 53 healthy subjects age-, gender-, and heart rate-matched. All the analyzed metrics provided an increasing P wave variability trend as the onset of PAF approximated, being P wave duration and P wave high-frequency energy the most significant individual metrics. The linear fitting slope α associated with P wave duration was (2.48 ± 1.98)×10(-2) for healthy subjects, (23.8 ± 14.1)×10(-2) for ECG segments far from PAF and for (81.8 ± 48.7)×10(-2) ECG segments close to PAF p = 6.96×10(-22) . Similarly, the P wave high-frequency energy linear fitting slope was (2.42 ± 4.97)×10(-9) , (54.2 ± 107.1)×10(-9) and (274.2 ± 566.1)×10(-9) , respectively (p = 2.85×10(-20) ). A univariate discriminant analysis provided that both P wave duration and P wave high-frequency energy could discern among the three ECG sets with diagnostic ability around 80%, which was improved up to 88% by combining these metrics in a multivariate discriminant analysis. Alterations in atrial conduction can be successfully quantified several hours before the onset of PAF by estimating variability over time of several time and frequency P wave features. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Identification of young stellar variables with KELT for K2 - II. The Upper Scorpius association

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ansdell, Megan; Oelkers, Ryan J.; Rodriguez, Joseph E.; Gaidos, Eric; Somers, Garrett; Mamajek, Eric; Cargile, Phillip A.; Stassun, Keivan G.; Pepper, Joshua; Stevens, Daniel J.; Beatty, Thomas G.; Siverd, Robert J.; Lund, Michael B.; Kuhn, Rudolf B.; James, David; Gaudi, B. Scott

2018-01-01

High-precision photometry from space-based missions such as K2 and Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite enables detailed studies of young star variability. However, because space-based observing campaigns are often short (e.g. 80 d for K2), complementary long-baseline photometric surveys are critical for obtaining a complete understanding of young star variability, which can change on time-scales of minutes to years. We therefore present and analyse light curves of members of the Upper Scorpius association made over 5.5 yr by the ground-based Kilodegree Extremely Little Telescope (KELT), which complement the high-precision observations of this region taken by K2 during its Campaigns 2 and 15. We show that KELT data accurately identify the periodic signals found with high-precision K2 photometry, demonstrating the power of ground-based surveys in deriving stellar rotation periods of young stars. We also use KELT data to identify sources exhibiting variability that is likely related to circumstellar material and/or stellar activity cycles; these signatures are often unseen in the short-term K2 data, illustrating the importance of long-term monitoring surveys for studying the full range of young star variability. We provide the KELT light curves as electronic tables in an ongoing effort to establish legacy time series data sets for young stellar clusters.

SPECTROSCOPIC ORBITAL PERIODS FOR 29 CATACLYSMIC VARIABLES FROM THE SLOAN DIGITAL SKY SURVEY

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thorstensen, John R.; Taylor, Cynthia J.; Peters, Christopher S.

2015-04-15

We report follow-up spectroscopy of 29 cataclysmic variables from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS), 22 of which were discovered by SDSS and seven of which are previously known systems that were recovered in SDSS. The periods for 16 of these objects were included in the tabulation by Gänsicke et al. While most of the systems have periods less than 2 hr, only one has a period in the 80–86 minutes “spike” found by Gänsicke et al., and 11 have periods longer than 3 hr, indicating that the present sample is skewed toward longer-period, higher-luminosity objects. Seven of the objectsmore » have spectra resembling dwarf novae, but have apparently never been observed in outburst, suggesting that many cataclysmics with relatively low variability amplitude remain to be discovered. Some of the objects are notable. SDSS J07568+0858 and SDSS J08129+1911 were previously known to have deep eclipses; in addition to spectroscopy, we use archival data from the Catalina Real Time Transient Survey to refine their periods. We give a parallax-based distance of 195 (+54, −39) pc for LV Cnc (SDSS J09197+0857), which at P{sub orb} = 81 m has the shortest orbital period in our sample. SDSS J08091+3814 shows both the spectroscopic phase offset and phase-dependent absorption found in SW Sextantis stars. The average spectra of SDSS J08055+0720 and SDSS J16191+1351 show contributions from K-type secondaries, and SDSS J080440+0239 shows a contribution from an early M star. We use these to constrain the distances. SDSS J09459+2922 has characteristics typical of a magnetic system. SDSS11324+6249 may be a novalike variable, and if so, its orbital period (99 minutes) is unusually short for that subclass.« less

Predicting Positive Outcomes for Students with Emotional Disturbance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nickerson, Amanda B.; Brosof, Amy M.; Shapiro, Valerie B.

2004-01-01

This longitudinal study assessed changes in skills for students with emotional disturbance (ED) over a one-year time period in a private special education school and examined variables that predicted positive outcomes for these students. At Time 1, teachers rated 84 students with ED using standardized behavior rating scales to assess problem…

Intra- to Multi-Decadal Temperature Variability over the Continental United States: 1896-2012

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The Optimal Ranking Regime (ORR) method was used to identify intra- to multi-decadal (IMD) time windows containing significant ranking sequences in U.S. climate division temperature data. The simplicity of the ORR procedure’s output – a time series’ most significant non-overlapping periods of high o...

Optimal ranking regime analysis of intra- to multidecadal U.S. climate variability. Part I: Temperature

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The Optimal Ranking Regime (ORR) method was used to identify intra- to multi-decadal (IMD) time windows containing significant ranking sequences in U.S. climate division temperature data. The simplicity of the ORR procedure’s output – a time series’ most significant non-overlapping periods of high o...

Global trends

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Megie, G.; Chanin, M.-L.; Ehhalt, D.; Fraser, P.; Frederick, J. F.; Gille, J. C.; Mccormick, M. P.; Schoebert, M.; Bishop, L.; Bojkov, R. D.

1990-01-01

Measuring trends in ozone, and most other geophysical variables, requires that a small systematic change with time be determined from signals that have large periodic and aperiodic variations. Their time scales range from the day-to-day changes due to atmospheric motions through seasonal and annual variations to 11 year cycles resulting from changes in the sun UV output. Because of the magnitude of all of these variations is not well known and highly variable, it is necessary to measure over more than one period of the variations to remove their effects. This means that at least 2 or more times the 11 year sunspot cycle. Thus, the first requirement is for a long term data record. The second related requirement is that the record be consistent. A third requirement is for reasonable global sampling, to ensure that the effects are representative of the entire Earth. The various observational methods relevant to trend detection are reviewed to characterize their quality and time and space coverage. Available data are then examined for long term trends or recent changes in ozone total content and vertical distribution, as well as related parameters such as stratospheric temperature, source gases and aerosols.

Finding hidden periodic signals in time series - an application to stock prices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Shea, Michael

2014-03-01

Data in the form of time series appear in many areas of science. In cases where the periodicity is apparent and the only other contribution to the time series is stochastic in origin, the data can be `folded' to improve signal to noise and this has been done for light curves of variable stars with the folding resulting in a cleaner light curve signal. Stock index prices versus time are classic examples of time series. Repeating patterns have been claimed by many workers and include unusually large returns on small-cap stocks during the month of January, and small returns on the Dow Jones Industrial average (DJIA) in the months June through September compared to the rest of the year. Such observations imply that these prices have a periodic component. We investigate this for the DJIA. If such a component exists it is hidden in a large non-periodic variation and a large stochastic variation. We show how to extract this periodic component and for the first time reveal its yearly (averaged) shape. This periodic component leads directly to the `Sell in May and buy at Halloween' adage. We also drill down and show that this yearly variation emerges from approximately half of the underlying stocks making up the DJIA index.

Early-onset neonatal sepsis is associated with a high heart rate during automatically selected stationary periods.

PubMed

Nguyen, Nga; Vandenbroucke, Laurent; Hernández, Alfredo; Pham, Tu; Beuchée, Alain; Pladys, Patrick

2017-05-01

This study examined the heart rate variability characteristics associated with early-onset neonatal sepsis in a prospective, observational controlled study. Eligible patients were full-term neonates hospitalised with clinical signs that suggested early-onset sepsis and a C-reactive protein of >10 mg/L. Sepsis was considered proven in cases of symptomatic septicaemia, meningitis, pneumonia or enterocolitis. Heart rate variability parameters (n = 16) were assessed from five-, 15- and 30-minute stationary sequences automatically selected from electrocardiographic recordings performed at admission and compared with a control group using the U-test with post hoc Benjamini-Yekutieli correction. Stationary sequences corresponded to the periods with the lowest changes of heart rate variability over time. A total of 40 full-term infants were enrolled, including 14 with proven sepsis. The mean duration of the cardiac cycle length was lower in the proven sepsis group than in the control group (n = 11), without other significant changes in heart rate variability parameters. These durations, measured in five-minute stationary periods, were 406 (367-433) ms in proven sepsis group versus 507 (463-522) ms in the control group (p < 0.05). Early-onset neonatal sepsis was associated with a high mean heart rate measured during automatically selected stationary periods. ©2017 Foundation Acta Paediatrica. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

European Climate and Pinot Noir Grape-Harvest Dates in Burgundy, since the 17th Century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tourre, Y. M.

2011-12-01

Time-series of growing season air temperature anomalies in the Parisian region and of 'Pinot Noir' grape-harvest dates (GHD) in Burgundy (1676-2004) are analyzed in the frequency-domain. Variability of both time-series display three significant frequency-bands (peaks significant at the 5% level) i.e., a low-frequency band (multi-decadal) with a 25-year peak period; a 3-to-8 year band period (inter-annual) with a 3.1-year peak period; and a 2-to-3 year band period (quasi-biennial) with a 2.4-year peak period. Joint sea surface temperature/sea level pressure (SST/SLP) empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) analyses during the 20th century, along with spatio-temporal patterns for the above frequency-bands are presented. It is found that SST anomalies display early significant spatial SST patterns in the North Atlantic Ocean (air temperature lagging by 6 months) similar to those obtained from EOF analyses. It is thus proposed that the robust power spectra for the above frequency-bands could be linked with Atlantic climate variability metrics modulating Western European climate i.e., 1) the global Multi-decadal Oscillation (MDO) with its Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) footprint; 2) the Atlantic Inter-Annual (IA) fluctuations; and 3) the Atlantic Quasi-Biennial (QB) fluctuations, respectively. Moreover these specific Western European climate signals have effects on ecosystem health and can be perceived as contributors to the length of the growing season and the timing of GHD in Burgundy. Thus advance knowledge on the evolution and phasing of the above climate fluctuations become important elements for viticulture and wine industry management. It is recognized that anthropogenic effects could have modified time-series patterns presented here, particularly since the mid 1980s.

Modeling pollen time series using seasonal-trend decomposition procedure based on LOESS smoothing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rojo, Jesús; Rivero, Rosario; Romero-Morte, Jorge; Fernández-González, Federico; Pérez-Badia, Rosa

2017-02-01

Analysis of airborne pollen concentrations provides valuable information on plant phenology and is thus a useful tool in agriculture—for predicting harvests in crops such as the olive and for deciding when to apply phytosanitary treatments—as well as in medicine and the environmental sciences. Variations in airborne pollen concentrations, moreover, are indicators of changing plant life cycles. By modeling pollen time series, we can not only identify the variables influencing pollen levels but also predict future pollen concentrations. In this study, airborne pollen time series were modeled using a seasonal-trend decomposition procedure based on LOcally wEighted Scatterplot Smoothing (LOESS) smoothing (STL). The data series—daily Poaceae pollen concentrations over the period 2006-2014—was broken up into seasonal and residual (stochastic) components. The seasonal component was compared with data on Poaceae flowering phenology obtained by field sampling. Residuals were fitted to a model generated from daily temperature and rainfall values, and daily pollen concentrations, using partial least squares regression (PLSR). This method was then applied to predict daily pollen concentrations for 2014 (independent validation data) using results for the seasonal component of the time series and estimates of the residual component for the period 2006-2013. Correlation between predicted and observed values was r = 0.79 (correlation coefficient) for the pre-peak period (i.e., the period prior to the peak pollen concentration) and r = 0.63 for the post-peak period. Separate analysis of each of the components of the pollen data series enables the sources of variability to be identified more accurately than by analysis of the original non-decomposed data series, and for this reason, this procedure has proved to be a suitable technique for analyzing the main environmental factors influencing airborne pollen concentrations.

Modeling pollen time series using seasonal-trend decomposition procedure based on LOESS smoothing.

PubMed

Rojo, Jesús; Rivero, Rosario; Romero-Morte, Jorge; Fernández-González, Federico; Pérez-Badia, Rosa

2017-02-01

Analysis of airborne pollen concentrations provides valuable information on plant phenology and is thus a useful tool in agriculture-for predicting harvests in crops such as the olive and for deciding when to apply phytosanitary treatments-as well as in medicine and the environmental sciences. Variations in airborne pollen concentrations, moreover, are indicators of changing plant life cycles. By modeling pollen time series, we can not only identify the variables influencing pollen levels but also predict future pollen concentrations. In this study, airborne pollen time series were modeled using a seasonal-trend decomposition procedure based on LOcally wEighted Scatterplot Smoothing (LOESS) smoothing (STL). The data series-daily Poaceae pollen concentrations over the period 2006-2014-was broken up into seasonal and residual (stochastic) components. The seasonal component was compared with data on Poaceae flowering phenology obtained by field sampling. Residuals were fitted to a model generated from daily temperature and rainfall values, and daily pollen concentrations, using partial least squares regression (PLSR). This method was then applied to predict daily pollen concentrations for 2014 (independent validation data) using results for the seasonal component of the time series and estimates of the residual component for the period 2006-2013. Correlation between predicted and observed values was r = 0.79 (correlation coefficient) for the pre-peak period (i.e., the period prior to the peak pollen concentration) and r = 0.63 for the post-peak period. Separate analysis of each of the components of the pollen data series enables the sources of variability to be identified more accurately than by analysis of the original non-decomposed data series, and for this reason, this procedure has proved to be a suitable technique for analyzing the main environmental factors influencing airborne pollen concentrations.

Understanding north-western Mediterranean climate variability: a multi-proxy and multi-sequence approach based on wavelet analysis.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azuara, Julien; Lebreton, Vincent; Jalali, Bassem; Sicre, Marie-Alexandrine; Sabatier, Pierre; Dezileau, Laurent; Peyron, Odile; Frigola, Jaime; Combourieu-Nebout, Nathalie

2017-04-01

Forcings and physical mechanisms underlying Holocene climate variability still remain poorly understood. Comparison of different paleoclimatic reconstructions using spectral analysis allows to investigate their common periodicities and helps to understand the causes of past climate changes. Wavelet analysis applied on several proxy time series from the Atlantic domain already revealed the first key-issues on the origin of Holocene climate variability. However the differences in duration, resolution and variance between the time-series are important issues for comparing paleoclimatic sequences in the frequency domain. This work compiles 7 paleoclimatic proxy records from 4 time-series from the north-western Mediterranean all ranging from 7000 to 1000 yrs cal BP: -pollen and clay mineral contents from the lagoonal sediment core PB06 recovered in southern France, -Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) derived from alkenones, concentration of terrestrial alkanes and their average chain length (ACL) from core KSGC-31_GolHo-1B recovered in the Gulf of Lion inner-shelf, - δ18O record from speleothems recovered in the Asiul Cave in north-western Spain, -grain size record from the deep basin sediment drift core MD99-2343 north of Minorca island. A comparison of their frequency content is proposed using wavelet analysis and cluster analysis of wavelet power spectra. Common cyclicities are assessed using cross-wavelet analysis. In addition, a new algorithm is used in order to propagate the age model errors within wavelet power spectra. Results are consistents with a non-stationnary Holocene climate variability. The Halstatt cycles (2000-2500 years) depicted in many proxies (ACL, errestrial alkanes and SSTs) demonstrate solar activity influence in the north-western Mediterranean climate. Cluster analysis shows that pollen and ACL proxies, both indicating changes in aridity, are clearly distinct from other proxies and share significant common periodicities around 1000 and 600 years, since the mid-Holocene. The 1000 years period is also evidenced in terrestrial alkanes and Minorca sediment drift grain size, which respectively indicate changes in the Rhône hydrology and changes in the north-western Mediterranean deep water formation. These findings suggests that an original climate driver influences the Gulf of Lion area. Finally, both clay mineral content from PB06, indicative of past storminess and δ18O record from the north western Iberia, related to precipitations, record the well known 1500 years period since the middle Holocene. The presence of this period, widely encountered in the Atlantic, highlights the link between the north-western Mediterranean and the Atlantic climate variability.

Airport Choice in Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area: An Application of the Conditional Logit Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moreno, Marcelo Baena; Muller, Carlos

2003-01-01

Using the conditional LOGIT model, this paper addresses the airport choice in the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area. In this region, Guarulhos International Airport (GRU) and Congonhas Airport (CGH) compete for passengers flying to several domestic destinations. The airport choice is believed to be a result of the tradeoff passengers perform considering airport access characteristics, airline level of service characteristics and passenger experience with the analyzed airports. It was found that access time to the airports better explain the airport choice than access distance, whereas direct flight frequencies gives better explanation to the airport choice than the indirect (connections and stops) and total (direct plus indirect) flight frequencies. Out of 15 tested variables, passenger experience with the analyzed airports was the variable that best explained the airport choice in the region. Model specifications considering 1, 2 or 3 variables were tested. The model specification most adjusted to the observed data considered access time, direct flight frequencies in the travel period (morning or afternoon peak) and passenger experience with the analyzed airports. The influence of these variables was therefore analyzed across market segments according to departure airport and flight duration criteria. The choice of GRU (located neighboring Sao Paulo city) is not well explained by the rationality of access time economy and the increase of the supply of direct flight frequencies, while the choice of CGH (located inside Sao Paulo city) is. Access time was found to be more important to passengers flying shorter distances while direct flight frequencies in the travel period were more significant to those flying longer distances. Keywords: Airport choice, Multiple airport region, Conditional LOGIT model, Access time, Flight frequencies, Passenger experience with the analyzed airports, Transportation planning

Interannual variability of crop water footprint

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tuninetti, M.; Tamea, S.; Laio, F.; Ridolfi, L.

2016-12-01

The crop water footprint, CWF, is a useful tool to investigate the water-food nexus, since it measures the water requirement for crop production. Heterogeneous spatial patterns of climatic conditions and agricultural practices have inspired a flourishing literature on the geographic assessment of CWF, mostly referred to a fixed (time-averaged) period. However, given that both climatic conditions and crop yield may vary substantially over time, also the CWF temporal dynamics need to be addressed. As other studies have done, we base the CWF variability on yield, while keeping the crop evapotranspiration constant over time. As a new contribution, we prove the feasibility of this approach by comparing these CWF estimates with the results obtained with a full model considering variations of crop evapotranspiration: overall, the estimates compare well showing high coefficients of determination that read 0.98 for wheat, 0.97 for rice, 0.97 for maize, and 0.91 for soybean. From this comparison, we derive also the precision of the method, which is around ±10% that is higher than the precision of the model used to evaluate the crop evapotranspiration (i.e., ±30%). Over the period between 1961 and 2013, the CWF of the most cultivated grains has sharply decreased on a global basis (i.e., -68% for wheat, -62% for rice, -66% for maize, and -52% for soybean), mainly driven by enhanced yield values. The higher water use efficiency in crop production implies a reduced virtual displacement of embedded water per ton of traded crop and as a result, the temporal variability of virtual water trade is different if considering constant or time-varying CWF. The proposed yield-based approach to estimate the CWF variability implies low computational costs and requires limited input data, thus, it represents a promising tool for time-dependent water footprint assessments.

On the origin of the mesospheric quasi-stationary planetary waves in the unusual Arctic winter 2015/2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matthias, Vivien; Ern, Manfred

2018-04-01

The midwinter 2015/2016 was characterized by an unusually strong polar night jet (PNJ) and extraordinarily large stationary planetary wave (SPW) amplitudes in the subtropical mesosphere. The aim of this study is, therefore, to find the origin of these mesospheric SPWs in the midwinter 2015/2016 study period. The study duration is split into two periods: the first period runs from late December 2015 until early January 2016 (Period I), and the second period from early January until mid-January 2016 (Period II). While the SPW 1 dominates in the subtropical mesosphere in Period I, it is the SPW 2 that dominates in Period II. There are three possibilities explaining how SPWs can occur in the mesosphere: (1) they propagate upward from the stratosphere, (2) they are generated in situ by longitudinally variable gravity wave (GW) drag, or (3) they are generated in situ by barotropic and/or baroclinic instabilities. Using global satellite observations from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) the origin of the mesospheric SPWs is investigated for both time periods. We find that due to the strong PNJ the SPWs were not able to propagate upward into the mesosphere northward of 50° N but were deflected upward and equatorward into the subtropical mesosphere. We show that the SPWs observed in the subtropical mesosphere are the same SPWs as in the mid-latitudinal stratosphere. Simultaneously, we find evidence that the mesospheric SPWs in polar latitudes were generated in situ by longitudinally variable GW drag and that there is a mixture of in situ generation by longitudinally variable GW drag and by instabilities at mid-latitudes. Our results, based on observations, show that the abovementioned three mechanisms can act at the same time which confirms earlier model studies. Additionally, the possible contribution from, or impact of, unusually strong SPWs in the subtropical mesosphere to the disruption of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in the same winter is discussed.

Spatial variability of extreme rainfall at radar subpixel scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peleg, Nadav; Marra, Francesco; Fatichi, Simone; Paschalis, Athanasios; Molnar, Peter; Burlando, Paolo

2018-01-01

Extreme rainfall is quantified in engineering practice using Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves (IDF) that are traditionally derived from rain-gauges and more recently also from remote sensing instruments, such as weather radars. These instruments measure rainfall at different spatial scales: rain-gauge samples rainfall at the point scale while weather radar averages precipitation on a relatively large area, generally around 1 km2. As such, a radar derived IDF curve is representative of the mean areal rainfall over a given radar pixel and neglects the within-pixel rainfall variability. In this study, we quantify subpixel variability of extreme rainfall by using a novel space-time rainfall generator (STREAP model) that downscales in space the rainfall within a given radar pixel. The study was conducted using a unique radar data record (23 years) and a very dense rain-gauge network in the Eastern Mediterranean area (northern Israel). Radar-IDF curves, together with an ensemble of point-based IDF curves representing the radar subpixel extreme rainfall variability, were developed fitting Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distributions to annual rainfall maxima. It was found that the mean areal extreme rainfall derived from the radar underestimate most of the extreme values computed for point locations within the radar pixel (on average, ∼70%). The subpixel variability of rainfall extreme was found to increase with longer return periods and shorter durations (e.g. from a maximum variability of 10% for a return period of 2 years and a duration of 4 h to 30% for 50 years return period and 20 min duration). For the longer return periods, a considerable enhancement of extreme rainfall variability was found when stochastic (natural) climate variability was taken into account. Bounding the range of the subpixel extreme rainfall derived from radar-IDF can be of major importance for different applications that require very local estimates of rainfall extremes.

Observed variability in the upper layers at the Equator, 90°E in the Indian Ocean during 2001-2008, 1: zonal currents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rao, R. R.; Horii, T.; Masumoto, Y.; Mizuno, K.

2017-08-01

The observed variability of zonal currents (ZC) at the Equator, 90°E shows a strong seasonal cycle in the near-surface 40-350 m water column with periodic east-west reversals most pronounced at semiannual frequency. Superposed on this, a strong intraseasonal variability of 30-90 day periodicity is also prominently seen in the near-surface layer (40-80 m) almost throughout the year with the only exception of February-March. An eastward flowing equatorial undercurrent (EUC) is present in the depth range of 80-160 m during March-April and October-November. The observed intraseasonal variability in the near-surface layer is primarily determined by the equatorial zonal westerly wind bursts (WWBs) through local frictional coupling between the zonal flow in the surface layer and surface zonal winds and shows large interannual variability. The eastward flowing EUC maintained by the ZPG set up by the east-west slope of the thermocline remotely controlled by the zonal wind (ZW) and zonally propagating wave fields also shows significant interannual variability. This observed variability on interannual time scales appears to be controlled by the corresponding variability in the alongshore winds off the Somalia coast during the preceding boreal winter, the ZW field along the equator, and the associated zonally propagating Kelvin and Rossby waves. The salinity induced vertical stratification observed in the near-surface layer through barrier layer thickness (BLT) effects also shows a significant influence on the ZC field on intraseasonal time scale. Interestingly, among all the 8 years (2001-2008), relatively weaker annual cycle is seen in both ZC in the 40-350 m water column and boreal spring sea surface temperature (SST) only during 2001 and 2008 along the equator caused through propagating wave dynamics.

Framing 100-year overflowing and overtopping marine submersion hazard resulting from the propagation of 100-year joint hydrodynamic conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicolae Lerma, A.; Bulteau, T.; Elineau, S.; Paris, F.; Pedreros, R.

2016-12-01

Marine submersion is an increasing concern for coastal cities as urban development reinforces their vulnerabilities while climate change is likely to foster the frequency and magnitude of submersions. Characterising the coastal flooding hazard is therefore of paramount importance to ensure the security of people living in such places and for coastal planning. A hazard is commonly defined as an adverse phenomenon, often represented by a magnitude of a variable of interest (e.g. flooded area), hereafter called response variable, associated with a probability of exceedance or, alternatively, a return period. Characterising the coastal flooding hazard consists in finding the correspondence between the magnitude and the return period. The difficulty lies in the fact that the assessment is usually performed using physical numerical models taking as inputs scenarios composed by multiple forcing conditions that are most of the time interdependent. Indeed, a time series of the response variable is usually not available so we have to deal instead with time series of forcing variables (e.g. water level, waves). Thus, the problem is twofold: on the one hand, the definition of scenarios is a multivariate matter; on the other hand, it is tricky and approximate to associate the resulting response, being the output of the physical numerical model, to the return period defined for the scenarios. In this study, we illustrate the problem on the district of Leucate, located in the French Mediterranean coast. A multivariate extreme value analysis of waves and water levels is performed offshore using a conditional extreme model, then two different methods are used to define and select 100-year scenarios of forcing variables: one based on joint exceedance probability contours, a method classically used in coastal risks studies, the other based on environmental contours, which are commonly used in the field of structure design engineering. We show that these two methods enable one to frame the true 100-year response variable. The selected scenarios are propagated to the shore through a high resolution flood modelling coupling overflowing and overtopping processes. Results in terms of inundated areas and inland water volumes are finally compared for the two methods, giving upper and lower bounds for the true response variables.

Systolic time interval v heart rate regression equations using atropine: reproducibility studies.

PubMed Central

Kelman, A W; Sumner, D J; Whiting, B

1981-01-01

1. Systolic time intervals (STI) were recorded in six normal male subjects over a period of 3 weeks. On one day per week, each subject received incremental doses of atropine intravenously to increase heart rate, allowing the determination of individual STI v HR regression equations. On the other days STI were recorded with the subjects resting, in the supine position. 2. There were highly significant regression relationships between heart rate and both LVET and QS2, but not between heart rate and PEP. 3. The regression relationships showed little intra-subject variability, but a large degree of inter-subject variability: they proved adequate to correct the STI for the daily fluctuations in heart rate. 4. Administration of small doses of atropine intravenously provides a satisfactory and convenient method of deriving individual STI v HR regression equations which can be applied over a period of weeks. PMID:7248136

Systolic time interval v heart rate regression equations using atropine: reproducibility studies.

PubMed

Kelman, A W; Sumner, D J; Whiting, B

1981-07-01

1. Systolic time intervals (STI) were recorded in six normal male subjects over a period of 3 weeks. On one day per week, each subject received incremental doses of atropine intravenously to increase heart rate, allowing the determination of individual STI v HR regression equations. On the other days STI were recorded with the subjects resting, in the supine position. 2. There were highly significant regression relationships between heart rate and both LVET and QS2, but not between heart rate and PEP. 3. The regression relationships showed little intra-subject variability, but a large degree of inter-subject variability: they proved adequate to correct the STI for the daily fluctuations in heart rate. 4. Administration of small doses of atropine intravenously provides a satisfactory and convenient method of deriving individual STI v HR regression equations which can be applied over a period of weeks.

Beyond annual streamflow reconstructions for the Upper Colorado River Basin: a paleo-water-balance approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gangopadhyay, Subhrendu; McCabe, Gregory J.; Woodhouse, Connie A.

2015-01-01

In this paper, we present a methodology to use annual tree-ring chronologies and a monthly water balance model to generate annual reconstructions of water balance variables (e.g., potential evapotrans- piration (PET), actual evapotranspiration (AET), snow water equivalent (SWE), soil moisture storage (SMS), and runoff (R)). The method involves resampling monthly temperature and precipitation from the instrumental record directed by variability indicated by the paleoclimate record. The generated time series of monthly temperature and precipitation are subsequently used as inputs to a monthly water balance model. The methodology is applied to the Upper Colorado River Basin, and results indicate that the methodology reliably simulates water-year runoff, maximum snow water equivalent, and seasonal soil moisture storage for the instrumental period. As a final application, the methodology is used to produce time series of PET, AET, SWE, SMS, and R for the 1404–1905 period for the Upper Colorado River Basin.

Time-resolved multicolour photometry of bright B-type variable stars in Scorpius

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Handler, G.; Schwarzenberg-Czerny, A.

2013-09-01

Context. The first two of a total of six nano-satellites that will constitute the BRITE-Constellation space photometry mission have recently been launched successfully. Aims: In preparation for this project, we carried out time-resolved colour photometry in a field that is an excellent candidate for BRITE measurements from space. Methods: We acquired 117 h of Strömgren uvy data during 19 nights. Our targets comprised the β Cephei stars κ and λ Sco, the eclipsing binary μ1 Sco, and the variable super/hypergiant ζ1 Sco. Results: For κ Sco, a photometric mode identification in combination with results from the spectroscopic literature suggests a dominant (l,m) = (1, -1) β Cephei-type pulsation mode of the primary star. The longer period of the star may be a rotational variation or a g-mode pulsation. For λ Sco, we recover the known dominant β Cephei pulsation, a longer-period variation, and observed part of an eclipse. Lack of ultraviolet data precludes mode identification for this star. We noticed that the spectroscopic orbital ephemeris of the closer pair in this triple system is inconsistent with eclipse timings and propose a refined value for the orbital period of the closer pair of 5.95189 ± 0.00003 d. We also argue that the components of the λ Sco system are some 30% more massive than previously thought. The binary light curve solution of μ1 Sco requires inclusion of the irradiation effect to explain the u light curve, and the system could show additional low amplitude variations on top of the orbital light changes. ζ1 Sco shows long-term variability on a time scale of at least two weeks that we prefer to interpret in terms of a variable wind or strange mode pulsations. Based on observations carried out at the South African Astronomical ObservatoryReduced time series for all stars are only available at the CDS via anonymous ftp to http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr (ftp://130.79.128.5) or via http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr/viz-bin/qcat?J/A+A/557/A1

New SX Phoenicis Variables in the Globular Cluster NGC 4833

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Darragh, A. N.; Murphy, B. W.

2012-07-01

We report the discovery of 6 SX Phoenicis stars in the southern globular cluster NGC 4833. Images were obtained from January through June 2011 with the Southeastern Association for Research in Astronomy 0.6 meter telescope located at Cerro Tololo Interamerican Observatory. The ISIS image subtraction method was used to search for variable stars in the cluster. We confirmed 17 previously cataloged variables and have identified 10 new variables. Of the total number of confirmed variables in our 10×10 arcmin^2 field, we classified 10 RRab variables, with a mean period of 0.69591 days, 7 RRc, with a mean period of 0.39555 days, 2 possible RRe variables with a mean period of 0.30950 days, a W Ursae Majoris contact binary, an Algol-type binary, and the 6 SX Phoenicis stars with a mean period of 0.05847 days. The periods, relative numbers of RRab and RRc variables, and Bailey diagram are indicative of the cluster being of the Oosterhoff type II. We present the phased-light curves, periods of previously known variables and the periods and classifications of the newly discovered variables, and their location on the color-magnitude diagram.

The Predictability of Large-Scale, Short-Period Ocean Variability in the Philippine Sea and the Influence of Such Variability on Long-Range Acoustic Propagation

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-30

for the various ray arrivals on this path, with the black line indicating an average of these travel times. Altimetry data from 2000- 2007 were used...D.E. & Stammer , D., Eds., ESA Publication WPP-306. Dushaw, B. D., P. F. Worcester, W. H. Munk, R. C. Spindel, J. A. Mercer, B. M. Howe, K. Metzger

Symptom variability, affect and physical activity in ambulatory persons with multiple sclerosis: Understanding patterns and time-bound relationships.

PubMed

Kasser, Susan L; Goldstein, Amanda; Wood, Phillip K; Sibold, Jeremy

2017-04-01

Individuals with multiple sclerosis (MS) experience a clinical course that is highly variable with daily fluctuations in symptoms significantly affecting functional ability and quality of life. Yet, understanding how MS symptoms co-vary and associate with physical and psychological health is unclear. The purpose of the study was to explore variability patterns and time-bound relationships across symptoms, affect, and physical activity in individuals with MS. The study employed a multivariate, replicated, single-subject repeated-measures (MRSRM) design and involved four individuals with MS. Mood, fatigue, pain, balance confidence, and losses of balance were measured daily over 28 days by self-report. Physical activity was also measured daily over this same time period via accelerometry. Dynamic factor analysis (DFA) was used to determine the dimensionality and lagged relationships across the variables. Person-specific models revealed considerable time-dependent co-variation patterns as well as pattern variation across subjects. Results also offered insight into distinct variability structures at varying levels of disability. Modeling person-level variability may be beneficial for addressing the heterogeneity of experiences in individuals with MS and for understanding temporal and dynamic interrelationships among perceived symptoms, affect, and health outcomes in this group. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of the heat balance constituents of the upper mixed layer in the North Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polonsky, A. B.; Sukhonos, P. A.

2016-11-01

Different physical mechanisms which cause interannual and interdecadal temperature anomalies in the upper mixed layer (UML) of the North Atlantic are investigated using the data of ORA-S3 reanalysis for the period of 1959-2011. It is shown that the annual mean heat budget in UML is mainly caused by the balance between advective heat transfer and horizontal turbulent mixing (estimated as a residual term in the equation of thermal balance). The local UML temperature change and contribution from the heat fluxes on the lower boundary of the UML to the heat budget of the upper layer are insignificant for the time scale under consideration. The contribution of the heat fluxes on the upper UML boundary to the low-frequency variability of the upper layer temperature in the whole North Atlantic area is substantially less than 30%. Areas like the northwestern part of the Northern Subtropical Anticyclonic Gyre (NSAG), where their contribution exceeds 30-60%, are exceptions. The typical time scales of advective heat transfer variability are revealed. In the NSAG area, an interannual variability associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation dominates, while in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre, an interdecadal variability of advective transfers with periods of more than 30 years prevails.

The Arctic's sea ice cover: trends, variability, predictability, and comparisons to the Antarctic.

PubMed

Serreze, Mark C; Meier, Walter N

2018-05-28

As assessed over the period of satellite observations, October 1978 to present, there are downward linear trends in Arctic sea ice extent for all months, largest at the end of the melt season in September. The ice cover is also thinning. Downward trends in extent and thickness have been accompanied by pronounced interannual and multiyear variability, forced by both the atmosphere and ocean. As the ice thins, its response to atmospheric and oceanic forcing may be changing. In support of a busier Arctic, there is a growing need to predict ice conditions on a variety of time and space scales. A major challenge to providing seasonal scale predictions is the 7-10 days limit of numerical weather prediction. While a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean is likely well within this century, there is much uncertainty in the timing. This reflects differences in climate model structure, the unknown evolution of anthropogenic forcing, and natural climate variability. In sharp contrast to the Arctic, Antarctic sea ice extent, while highly variable, has increased slightly over the period of satellite observations. The reasons for this different behavior remain to be resolved, but responses to changing atmospheric circulation patterns appear to play a strong role. © 2018 New York Academy of Sciences.

Short communication: effects of frequency of feed delivery and bunk space on the feeding behavior of limit-fed dairy heifers.

PubMed

Greter, A M; Westerveld, R S; Duffield, T F; McBride, B W; Widowski, T M; Devries, T J

2013-03-01

The objective of this experiment was to determine the interaction between feed bunk space and frequency of feed provision on the feeding behavior patterns and growth of growing dairy heifers fed a limited amount. Sixteen Holstein dairy heifers (183.4 ± 9.1 d of age, mean ± standard deviation) were divided into 4 groups of 4. The groups were exposed to each of 4 treatments, using a 4 × 4 Latin square design with a 2 × 2 factorial arrangement of treatments, over 21-d periods (14-d adaptation period, 7-d data collection periods). The treatments were arranged in 2 feed delivery frequencies (once per day at 1200 h: 1 ×/d, and twice per day at 1200 and 1400 h: 2 ×/d) and 2 levels of feed bunk space (adequate feed bunk space: 0.40 m/heifer, and reduced feed bunk space: 0.29 m/heifer). Pen dry matter intake (DMI) was recorded daily, average daily gain (ADG) was recorded weekly, and variability in ADG was calculated from the standard deviation of ADG. Feeding, unrewarded behavior (time at feed bunk without feed present), and competitive behavior were recorded using time-lapse video. Feeding and unrewarded behavior were measured for the last 7 d of each period, whereas competitive behavior was recorded on d 16, 18, and 20 of each period. Lying time was recorded for the last 7 d of each period. A tendency for interaction between feed bunk space and frequency of feed delivery on the feed efficiency of limit-fed dairy heifers was noted. Heifers provided restricted bunk space were reported as being less efficient when fed 2 ×/d; however, no other interactions were found. Although DMI and variability in ADG were similar between treatments, ADG was higher (1.0 vs. 0.9 kg/d) when heifers were provided with 0.40 m of feed bunk space and tended to be higher when fed 1 ×/d compared with that of heifers given restricted bunk space or fed 2 ×/d. Heifers fed 1 ×/d spent more time feeding throughout the day (70.5 vs. 58.9 min/d) than heifers fed 2 ×/d. Heifers fed at a restricted bunk space or fed 1 ×/d were approximately 25% more variable in feeding time than heifers fed 2 ×/d or with adequate bunk space. Heifers spent a similar amount of time in unrewarded visits to the feed bunk (28.9 min/d). Although feed bunk space did not affect competition (3.6 displacements/d), heifers fed 1 ×/d were displaced twice as frequently than heifers fed 2 ×/d. Regardless of treatment, heifers spent a similar amount of time lying down and standing without eating. Overall, providing sufficient feed bunk space to allow all limit-fed heifers to feed simultaneously improves feed efficiency and ADG and reduces variability in feeding time. Additionally, although delivering feed 1 ×/d resulted in increased competition, it also enabled heifers to gain adequate weight and spend more time feeding each day. Copyright © 2013 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Atmospheric structure and variability in areas of convective storms determined from 3-h rawinsonde data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, G. S.; Scoggins, J. R.

1976-01-01

The structure and variability of the atmosphere in areas of radar-observed convection were established by using 3-h rawinsonde and surface data from NASA's second Atmospheric Variability Experiment. Convective activity was shown to exist in areas where the low and middle troposphere is moist and the air is potentially and convectively unstable and has upward motion, in combination with positive moisture advection, at either the surface or within the boundary layer. The large variability of the parameters associated with convective storms over time intervals less than 12 h was also demonstrated so as to possibly produce a change in the probability of convective activity by a factor of 8 or more in 3 h. Between 30 and 60 percent of the total changes in parameters associated with convective activity over a 12-h period were shown to take place during a 3-h period. These large changes in parameters are related to subsynoptic-scale systems that often produce convective storms.

Infant breathing rate counter based on variable resistor for pneumonia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sakti, Novi Angga; Hardiyanto, Ardy Dwi; La Febry Andira R., C.; Camelya, Kesa; Widiyanti, Prihartini

2016-03-01

Pneumonia is one of the leading causes of death in new born baby in Indonesia. According to WHO in 2002, breathing rate is very important index to be the symptom of pneumonia. In the Community Health Center, the nurses count with a stopwatch for exactly one minute. Miscalculation in Community Health Center occurs because of long time concentration and focus on two object at once. This calculation errors can cause the baby who should be admitted to the hospital only be attended at home. Therefore, an accurate breathing rate counter at Community Health Center level is necessary. In this work, resistance change of variable resistor is made to be breathing rate counter. Resistance change in voltage divider can produce voltage change. If the variable resistance moves periodically, the voltage will change periodically too. The voltage change counted by software in the microcontroller. For the every mm shift at the variable resistor produce average 0.96 voltage change. The software can count the number of wave generated by shifting resistor.

Year-to-year variations in annual average indoor 222Rn concentrations.

PubMed

Martz, D E; Rood, A S; George, J L; Pearson, M D; Langner, G H

1991-09-01

Annual average indoor 222Rn concentrations in 40 residences in and around Grand Junction, CO, have been measured repeatedly since 1984 using commercial alpha-track monitors (ATM) deployed for successive 12-mo time periods. Data obtained provide a quantitative measure of the year-to-year variations in the annual average Rn concentrations in these structures over this 6-y period. A mean coefficient of variation of 25% was observed for the year-to-year variability of the measurements at 25 sampling stations for which complete data were available. Individual coefficients of variation at the various stations ranged from a low of 7.7% to a high of 51%. The observed mean coefficient of variation includes contributions due to the variability in detector response as well as the true year-to-year variation in the annual average Rn concentrations. Factoring out the contributions from the measured variability in the response of the detectors used, the actual year-to-year variability of the annual average Rn concentrations was approximately 22%.

Large amplitude change in spot-induced rotational modulation of the Kepler Ap star KIC 2569073

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drury, Jason A.; Murphy, Simon J.; Derekas, Aliz; Sódor, Ádám; Stello, Dennis; Kuehn, Charles A.; Bedding, Timothy R.; Bognár, Zsófia; Szigeti, László; Szakáts, Róbert; Sárneczky, Krisztián; Molnár, László

2017-11-01

An investigation of the 200 × 200 pixel `superstamp' images of the centres of the open clusters NGC 6791 and NGC 6819 allows for the identification and study of many variable stars that were not included in the Kepler target list. KIC 2569073 (V = 14.22), is a particularly interesting variable Ap star that we discovered in the NGC 6791 superstamp. With a rotational period of 14.67 d and 0.034 mag variability, it has one of the largest peak-to-peak variations of any known Ap star. Colour photometry reveals an antiphase correlation between the B band, and the V, R and I bands. This Ap star is a rotational variable, also known as an α2 CVn star, and is one of only a handful of Ap stars observed by Kepler. While no change in spot period or amplitude is observed within the 4 yr Kepler time series, the amplitude shows a large increase compared to ground-based photometry obtained two decades ago.

X-Ray and UV Orbital Phase Dependence in LMC X-3

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dolan, Joseph F.; Boyd, P. T.; Smale, A. P.

2001-01-01

The black-hole binary LMC X-3 is known to be variable on time scales of days to years. We investigated X-ray and ultraviolet variability in the system as a function of the 1.7 d binary orbit using a 6.4 day observation with the Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer (RXTE) in 1998 December. An abrupt 14 % flux decrease lasting nearly an entire orbit was followed by a return to previous flux levels. This behavior occurred twice at nearly the same binary phase, but is not present in consecutive orbits. When the X-ray flux is at lower intensity, a periodic amplitude modulation of 7 % is evident in data folded modulo the orbital period. The higher intensity data show weaker correlation with phase. This is the first report of X-ray variability at the orbital period of LMC X-3. Archival RXTE observations of LMC X-3 during a high flux state in 1996 December show similar phase dependence. An ultraviolet light curve obtained with the High Speed Photometer (HSP) on the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) shows a phase dependent variability consistent with that observed in the visible, ascribed to the ellipsoidal variation of the visible star. The X-ray spectrum of LMC X-3 is acceptably represented by a phenomenological disk black-body plus a power law. Changes in the spectrum of LMX X-3 during our observations are compatible with earlier observations during which variations in the 2-10 keV flux are closely correlated with the disk geometry spectral model parameter.

Timescales of Equatorward Transport through the Solomon Sea from Glider and Altimetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hristova, H. G.; Kessler, W. S.; Davis, R.

2016-12-01

Passage through the semi-enclosed Solomon Sea is the last hurdle in the equatorward journey of the South Pacific western boundary currents before reaching the equator where they contribute to the mass, heat and salt budgets of the equatorial Pacific. We use satellite sea surface height (SSH) and in-situ data from 10 years of glider observations in the Solomon Sea to relate surface geostrophic currents to equatorward transport variability estimated from the gliders. The interior Solomon Sea has enhanced SSH variability compared to the surrounding ocean — its magnitude is largest on ENSO timescales, but also includes significant contributions from the annual and intraseasonal (<120 days) frequencies. Intraseasonal surface variability is dominated by basin-scale, westward propagating disturbances with 60-90 day period, consistent with basin resonance. Because the period of these disturbances is comparable to the time it takes a glider to complete a section across the Sea, the energetic intraseasonal variability is aliased in the glider data and results in section to section spikes in the glider transport estimates. Lower frequency (interannual and annual) SSH correlates well with dynamic height relative to 500m from the glider. Thus, a good lower frequency transport time-series can be obtained from SSH alone. However, the glider provides in addition a vertical structure for the mass transport, as well as estimates of heat and salt transport through the Sea. Two major El Nino events (2009/2010 and 2015/2016) occurred during the glider observation period, both of which show a distinct signature in the mass and heat transport anomalies.

Photometric detection of a candidate low-mass giant binary system at the Milky Way Galactic Center

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krishna Gautam, Abhimat; Do, Tuan; Ghez, Andrea; Sakai, Shoko; Morris, Mark; Lu, Jessica; Witzel, Gunther; Jia, Siyao; Becklin, Eric Eric; Matthews, Keith

2018-01-01

We present the discovery of a new periodic variable star at the Milky Way Galactic Center (GC). This study uses laser guide-star adaptive optics data collected with the W. M. Keck 10 m telescope in the K‧-band (2.2 µm) over 35 nights spanning an 11 year time baseline, and 5 nights of additional H-band (1.6 µm) data. We implemented an iterative photometric calibration and local correction technique, resulting in a photometric uncertainty of Δm_K‧ ∼ 0.03 to a magnitude of m_K‧ ∼ 16.The periodically variable star has a 39.42 day period. We find that the star is not consistent with known periodically variable star classes in this period range with its observed color and luminosity, nor with an eclipsing binary system. The star's color and luminosity are however consistent with an ellipsoidal binary system at the GC, consisting of a K-giant and a dwarf component with an orbital period of 78.84 days. If a binary system, it represents the first detection of a low-mass giant binary system in the central half parsec of the GC. Such long-period binary systems can easily evaporate in the dense environment of the GC due to interactions with other stars. The existence and properties of a low-mass, long-period binary system can thus place valuable constraints on dynamical models of the GC environment and probe the density of the hypothesized dark cusp of stellar remnants at the GC.

RApid Temporal Survey (RATS) - II. Followup observations of four newly discovered short-period variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramsay, Gavin; Napiwotzki, Ralf; Hakala, Pasi; Lehto, Harry

2006-09-01

The Rapid Temporal Survey (RATS) is a survey to detect objects whose optical intensity varies on time-scales of less than ~70 min. In our pilot data set taken with the Isaac Newton Telescope and the Wide Field Camera in 2003 November, we discovered nearly 50 new variable objects. Many of these varied on time-scales much longer than 1 h. However, only four objects showed a modulation on a time-scale of 1 h or less. This paper presents followup optical photometry and spectroscopy of these four objects. We find that RATJ0455 + 1305 is a pulsating (on a period of 374 s) subdwarf B star of the EC14026 type. We have modelled its spectrum and determine Teff = 29200 +/- 1900K and logg = 5.2 +/- 0.3 which locates it on the cool edge of the EC14026 instability strip. It has a modulation amplitude which is one of the highest of any known EC14026 star. Based on their spectra, photometric variability and their infrared colours, we find that RATJ0449 + 1756, J0455 + 1254 and J0807 + 1510 are likely to be SX Phe stars - dwarf δ Sct stars. Our results show that our observing strategy is a good method for finding rare pulsating stars.

Response of noctilucent cloud brightness to daily solar variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dalin, P.; Pertsev, N.; Perminov, V.; Dubietis, A.; Zadorozhny, A.; Zalcik, M.; McEachran, I.; McEwan, T.; Černis, K.; Grønne, J.; Taustrup, T.; Hansen, O.; Andersen, H.; Melnikov, D.; Manevich, A.; Romejko, V.; Lifatova, D.

2018-04-01

For the first time, long-term data sets of ground-based observations of noctilucent clouds (NLC) around the globe have been analyzed in order to investigate a response of NLC to solar UV irradiance variability on a day-to-day scale. NLC brightness has been considered versus variations of solar Lyman-alpha flux. We have found that day-to-day solar variability, whose effect is generally masked in the natural NLC variability, has a statistically significant effect when considering large statistics for more than ten years. Average increase in day-to-day solar Lyman-α flux results in average decrease in day-to-day NLC brightness that can be explained by robust physical mechanisms taking place in the summer mesosphere. Average time lags between variations of Lyman-α flux and NLC brightness are short (0-3 days), suggesting a dominant role of direct solar heating and of the dynamical mechanism compared to photodissociation of water vapor by solar Lyman-α flux. All found regularities are consistent between various ground-based NLC data sets collected at different locations around the globe and for various time intervals. Signatures of a 27-day periodicity seem to be present in the NLC brightness for individual summertime intervals; however, this oscillation cannot be unambiguously retrieved due to inevitable periods of tropospheric cloudiness.

First Results on the Variability of Mid- and High-Latitude Ionospheric Electric Fields at 1- Second Time Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruohoniemi, J. M.; Greenwald, R. A.; Oksavik, K.; Baker, J. B.

2007-12-01

The electric fields at high latitudes are often modeled as a static pattern in the absence of variation in solar wind parameters or geomagnetic disturbance. However, temporal variability in the local electric fields on time scales of minutes for stable conditions has been reported and characterized statistically as an intrinsic property amounting to turbulence. We describe the results of applying a new technique to SuperDARN HF radar observations of ionospheric plasma convection at middle and high latitudes that gives views of the variability of the electric fields at sub-second time scales. We address the question of whether there is a limit to the temporal scale of the electric field variability and consider whether the turbulence on minute time scales is due to organized but unresolved behavior. The basis of the measurements is the ability to record raw samples from the individual multipulse sequences that are transmitted during the standard 3 or 6-second SuperDARN integration period; a backscattering volume is then effectively sampled at a cadence of 200 ms. The returns from the individual sequences are often sufficiently well-ordered to permit a sequence-by-sequence characterization of the electric field and backscattered power. We attempt a statistical characterization of the variability at these heretofore inaccessible time scales and consider how variability is influenced by solar wind and magentospheric factors.

Effects of the 7-8-year cycle in daily mean air temperature as a cross-scale information transfer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jajcay, Nikola; Hlinka, Jaroslav; Paluš, Milan

2015-04-01

Using a novel nonlinear time-series analysis method, an information transfer from larger to smaller scales of the air temperature variability has been observed in daily mean surface air temperature (SAT) data from European stations as the influence of the phase of slow oscillatory phenomena with periods around 6-11 years on amplitudes of the variability characterized by smaller temporal scales from a few months to 4-5 years [1]. The strongest effect is exerted by an oscillatory mode with the period close to 8 years and its influence can be seen in 1-2 °C differences of the conditional SAT means taken conditionally on the phase of the 8-year cycle. The size of this effect, however, changes in space and time. The changes in time are studied using sliding window technique, showing that the effect evolves in time, and during the last decades the effect is stronger and significant. Sliding window technique was used along with seasonal division of the data, and it has been found that the cycle is most pronounced in the winter season. Different types of surrogate data are applied in order to establish statistical significance and distinguish the effect of the 7-8-yr cycle from climate variability on shorter time scales. [1] M. Palus, Phys. Rev. Lett. 112 078702 (2014) This study is supported by the Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic within the Program KONTAKT II, Project No. LH14001.

Rapid variability, dying pulse trains and black holes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stoeger, W. R.

1980-01-01

After reviewing the general model and arguments by which rapid temporal variability and quasi-periodicities are considered indicative of a compact source's possible black hole character, the paper presents a scenario for 'dying pulse trains'. These originate inside the inner edge of accretion disks encircling black holes from accreting flares or other self-luminous entities executing their final few revolutions before reaching the event horizon. Confirmed detection of such phenomena with time scales in the range 0.01 (M/solar mass) to 0.5 (M/solar mass)ms, where M is the mass of the compact source, would provide much better support for its black hole candidacy. Variability on time-scales larger than this by itself places few constraints on the nature of the compact object.

Individual and hospital-specific factors influencing medical graduates' time to medical specialization.

PubMed

Johannessen, Karl-Arne; Hagen, Terje P

2013-11-01

Previous studies of gender differences in relation to medical specialization have focused more on social variables than hospital-specific factors. In a multivariate analysis with extended Cox regression, we used register data for socio-demographic variables (gender, family and having a child born during the study period) together with hospital-specific variables (the amount of supervision available, efficiency pressure and the type of teaching hospital) to study the concurrent effect of these variables on specialty qualification among all 2474 Norwegian residents who began specialization in 1999-2001. We followed the residents until 2010. A lower proportion of women qualified for a specialty in the study period (67.9% compared with 78.7% of men, p < 0.001), and they took on average six months longer than men did to complete the specialization qualification (p < 0.01). Fewer women than men entered specialties providing emergency services and those with longer working hours, and women worked shorter hours than men in all specialties. Hospital factors were significant predictors for the timely attainment of specialization: working at university hospitals (regional) or central hospitals was associated with a reduction in the time taken to complete the specialization, whereas an increased patient load and less supervision had the opposite effect. Multivariate analysis showed that the smaller proportion of women who qualified for a specialty was explained principally by childbirth and by the number of children aged under 18 years. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The impact of design variables and aftercare regime on the long-term performance of pressure garments.

PubMed

Macintyre, Lisa; Gilmartin, Sian; Rae, Michelle

2007-01-01

We sought to establish the impact of pressure garment design variables, moisturizer use, and laundry method on the ability of pressure garments to maintain their pressure delivering potential, indicated here by garment tension, over time and use. Twenty-six sets of three replicate pressure garment sleeves were constructed from four powernet fabrics, using three reduction factors and six sleeve dimensions. These pressure garment sleeves were extended for 23 hours on static cylinder models followed by hand or machine laundry up to 28 times. Some sleeves were additionally exposed to moisturizers during their extension. Garment tension and dimensions were measured before and during the simulated wear and wash period to indicate each garment's ability to maintain its tension and therefore pressure throughout a period of "use." The results of the investigation were analyzed in groups where each group contained only 1 variable, thereby allowing the variables with the most significant impact on tension degradation to be identified. The investigation confirmed that all pressure garments lost tension and therefore pressure delivering ability over time and use. It further revealed that pressure garments designed to exert greater pressures degraded faster than those designed to exert lower pressures. Contact between pressure garments and moisturizers accelerated tension degradation, and machine-washing pressure garments tended to prolong their pressure-delivering properties compared with hand-washing them. To maintain the initial pressure delivered by pressure garments, powernet fabrics should be prestressed before being designed/constructed and they should be machine-washed by patients.

On the spectral characteristics of the Atlantic multidecadal variability in an ensemble of multi-century simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mavilia, Irene; Bellucci, Alessio; J. Athanasiadis, Panos; Gualdi, Silvio; Msadek, Rym; Ruprich-Robert, Yohan

2018-01-01

The Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) is a coherent pattern of variability of the North Atlantic sea surface temperature field affecting several components of the climate system in the Atlantic region and the surrounding areas. The relatively short observational record severely limits our understanding of the physical mechanisms leading to the AMV. The present study shows that the spatial and temporal characteristics of the AMV, as assessed from the historical records, should also be considered as highly uncertain. Using 11 multi-century preindustrial climate simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) database, we show that the AMV characteristics are not constant along the simulation when assessed from different 200-year-long periods to match the observed period length. An objective method is proposed to test whether the variations of the AMV characteristics are consistent with stochastic internal variability. For 7 out of the 11 models analysed, the results indicate a non-stationary behaviour for the AMV time series. However, the possibility that the non-stationarity arises from sampling errors can be excluded with high confidence only for one of the 7 models. Therefore, longer time series are needed to robustly assess the AMV characteristics. In addition to any changes imposed to the AMV by external forcings, the detected dependence on the time interval identified in most models suggests that the character of the observed AMV may undergo significant changes in the future.

A Hybrid Algorithm for Period Analysis from Multiband Data with Sparse and Irregular Sampling for Arbitrary Light-curve Shapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saha, Abhijit; Vivas, A. Katherina

2017-12-01

Ongoing and future surveys with repeat imaging in multiple bands are producing (or will produce) time-spaced measurements of brightness, resulting in the identification of large numbers of variable sources in the sky. A large fraction of these are periodic variables: compilations of these are of scientific interest for a variety of purposes. Unavoidably, the data sets from many such surveys not only have sparse sampling, but also have embedded frequencies in the observing cadence that beat against the natural periodicities of any object under investigation. Such limitations can make period determination ambiguous and uncertain. For multiband data sets with asynchronous measurements in multiple passbands, we wish to maximally use the information on periodicity in a manner that is agnostic of differences in the light-curve shapes across the different channels. Given large volumes of data, computational efficiency is also at a premium. This paper develops and presents a computationally economic method for determining periodicity that combines the results from two different classes of period-determination algorithms. The underlying principles are illustrated through examples. The effectiveness of this approach for combining asynchronously sampled measurements in multiple observables that share an underlying fundamental frequency is also demonstrated.

Indoor noise exposure at home: a field study in the family of urban schoolchildren.

PubMed

Pujol, S; Berthillier, M; Defrance, J; Lardies, J; Levain, J-P; Petit, R; Houot, H; Mauny, F

2014-10-01

This article aims at evaluating indoor noise levels at home and investigating the factors that may influence their variability. An 8-day noise measurement campaign was conducted in the homes of 44 schoolchildren attending the public primary schools of Besançon (France). The presence of the inhabitants in the dwelling and the noisy events occurring indoors and outdoors was daily collected using a time-location-activity diary (TLAD); 902 time periods were analyzed. The indoor noise level increased significantly with the outdoor noise level, along with the duration of the presence or level of activity of the inhabitants at home. However, this effect may vary according to the period of day and the day of the week. Moreover, a significant part of the day and evening indoor noise level variability was explained when considering the TLAD variables: 46% and 45% in the bedroom, 54% and 39% in the main room, respectively. Our results highlight the complexity of the indoor environment in the dwellings of children living in an urban area. Combining the inhabitant presence and indoor noise source descriptors with outdoor noise levels and other dwelling or inhabitant characteristics could improve large-scale epidemiological studies. However, additional efforts are still needed, particularly during the night period. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Space and time variability of heating requirements for greenhouse tomato production in the Euro-Mediterranean area.

PubMed

Mariani, Luigi; Cola, Gabriele; Bulgari, Roberta; Ferrante, Antonio; Martinetti, Livia

2016-08-15

The Euro-Mediterranean area is the seat of a relevant greenhouse activity, meeting the needs of important markets. A quantitative assessment of greenhouse energy consumption and of its variability in space and time is an important decision support tool for both greenhouse-sector policies and farmers. A mathematical model of greenhouse energy balance was developed and parameterized for a state-of-the-art greenhouse to evaluate the heating requirements for vegetables growing. Tomato was adopted as reference crop, due to its high energy requirement for fruit setting and ripening and its economic relevance. In order to gain a proper description of the Euro-Mediterranean area, 56 greenhouse areas located within the ranges 28°N-72°N and 11°W-55°E were analyzed over the period 1973-2014. Moreover, the two 1973-1987 and 1988-2014 sub-periods were separately studied to describe climate change effects on energy consumption. Results account for the spatial variability of energy needs for tomato growing, highlighting the strong influence of latitude on the magnitude of heat requirements. The comparison between the two selected sub-periods shows a decrease of energy demand in the current warm phase, more relevant for high latitudes. Finally, suggestions to reduce energy consumptions are provided. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cyclic Activity of Mud Volcanoes: Evidences from Trinidad (SE Caribbean)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deville, E.

2007-12-01

Fluid and solid transfer in mud volcanoes show different phases of activity, including catastrophic events followed by periods of relative quiescence characterized by moderate activity. This can be notably shown by historical data onshore Trinidad. Several authors have evoked a possible link between the frequencies of eruption of some mud volcanoes and seismic activity, but in Trinidad there is no direct correlation between mud eruptions and seisms. It appears that each eruptive mud volcano has its own period of catastrophic activity, and this period is highly variable from one volcano to another. The frequency of activity of mud volcanoes seems essentially controlled by local pressure regime within the sedimentary pile. At the most, a seism can, in some cases, activate an eruption close to its term. The dynamics of expulsion of the mud volcanoes during the quiescence phases has been studied notably from temperature measurements within the mud conduits. The mud temperature is concurrently controlled by, either, the gas flux (endothermic gas depressurizing induces a cooling effect), or by the mud flux (mud is a vector for convective heat transfer). Complex temperature distribution was observed in large conduits and pools. Indeed, especially in the bigger pools, the temperature distribution characterizes convective cells with an upward displacement of mud above the deep outlet, and ring-shaped rolls associated with the burial of the mud on the flanks of the pools. In simple, tube-like shaped, narrow conduits, the temperature is more regular, but we observed different types of profiles, with either downward increasing or decreasing temperatures. If the upward flow of mud would be regular, we should expect increasing temperatures and progressively decreasing gradient with depth within the conduits. However, the variable measured profiles from one place to another, as well as time-variable measured temperatures within the conduits and especially, at the base of the conduits, shows that the fluid flow expelled by the studied mud volcanoes is not constant but highly variable through short time-periods. We notably observed very short time-period cyclic variations with a frequency of about 10 minutes. These high frequencies temperature changes could be related to the dynamics of two-phase flows (gas and mud) through the mud volcano conduits. We also observed locally a significant daily changes of the temperature of the expelled mud which shows also that the mud flux is changing very rapidly from one day to another.

Skysurvey Results of RotseIIID Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bilir, Cansu; Varol Keskin, MR..

2016-07-01

The aim of this thesis is to find variable stars from the ROTSEIIID fields data files. In order to determine the variable stars, a simple but effective software, that works seamlessly, has been developed. Robotic Optical Transient Search Experiment (ROTSE) is a worldwide project with four robotic telescopes, established in order to follow the optical afterglow radiation of the Gamma-Ray Bursts (GRB). In this study, the observations of the fields obtained from the ROTSEIIID Telescope located in the TÜBİTAK (Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey) National Observatory were used. ROTSEIIID creates a calibrated object list (cobj) from the observations gathered automatically. The different values of each star (RA, DEC, Pixel Coordinates, M, MERR, Flags etc.) can be found in this generated list. In this thesis these values are extracted from data files. A php programme was developed in order to extract time series data of every star in a field. It also searches period, and if found, calculates phases for this data. The goal of this study is to determine the variable stars, especially unknown variables. Ds9 and fv programs are used for dealing with FITS files. Also flowchart of program is given in this thesis. In addition Debil (for finding some parameters of detached eclipsing binary stars) and Gnuplot (for drawing graphics) are used by php program. Using gnuplot, magnitude-time and period-time graphics of each star are plotted. The searching program is used for some different fields of RotseIIID data files. On the basis of the results of this research, 42 variable stars found and 14 of them are listed end of the thesis with their light curves. The data used in this thesis will be studied more detailed and research results of new/unknown variable stars will be published along the Msc thesis. We are still studying on the data of new variable stars which were discovered by this research and the results will be published in near future...

Yearly variation of bacterial production in the Arraial do Cabo protection area (Cabo Frio upwelling region): An evidence of anthropogenic pressure

PubMed Central

Coelho-Souza, Sérgio A.; Pereira, Gilberto C.; Coutinho, Ricardo; Guimarães, Jean R.D.

2013-01-01

Arraial do Cabo is where upwelling occurs more intensively on the Brazilian coast. Although it is a protection area it suffers anthropogenic pressure such as harbor activities and sporadic sewage emissions. Short-time studies showed a high variability of bacterial production (BP) in this region but none of them evaluated BP during long periods in a large spatial scale including stations under different natural (upwelling and cold fronts) and anthropogenic pressures. During 2006, we sampled surface waters 10 times (5 in upwelling and 5 in subsidence periods) in 8 stations and we measured BP, temperature as well as the concentrations of inorganic nutrients, pigments and particulate organic matter (POM). BP was up to 400 times higher when sewage emissions were observed visually and it had a positive correlation with ammonia concentrations. Therefore, in 2007, we did two samples (each during upwelling and subsidence periods) during sewage emissions in five stations under different anthropogenic pressure and we also measured particles abundance by flow cytometry. The 12 samples in the most impacted area confirmed that BP was highest when ammonia was higher than 2 μM, also reporting the highest concentrations of chlorophyll a and suspended particles. However, considering all measured variables, upwelling was the main disturbing factor but the pressure of fronts should not be neglected since it had consequences in the auto-heterotrophic coupling, increasing the concentrations of non fluorescent particles and POM. Stations clustered in function of natural and anthropogenic pressures degrees and both determined the temporal-spatial variability. PMID:24688533

Yearly variation of bacterial production in the Arraial do Cabo protection area (Cabo Frio upwelling region): an evidence of anthropogenic pressure.

PubMed

Coelho-Souza, Sérgio A; Pereira, Gilberto C; Coutinho, Ricardo; Guimarães, Jean R D

2013-12-01

Arraial do Cabo is where upwelling occurs more intensively on the Brazilian coast. Although it is a protection area it suffers anthropogenic pressure such as harbor activities and sporadic sewage emissions. Short-time studies showed a high variability of bacterial production (BP) in this region but none of them evaluated BP during long periods in a large spatial scale including stations under different natural (upwelling and cold fronts) and anthropogenic pressures. During 2006, we sampled surface waters 10 times (5 in upwelling and 5 in subsidence periods) in 8 stations and we measured BP, temperature as well as the concentrations of inorganic nutrients, pigments and particulate organic matter (POM). BP was up to 400 times higher when sewage emissions were observed visually and it had a positive correlation with ammonia concentrations. Therefore, in 2007, we did two samples (each during upwelling and subsidence periods) during sewage emissions in five stations under different anthropogenic pressure and we also measured particles abundance by flow cytometry. The 12 samples in the most impacted area confirmed that BP was highest when ammonia was higher than 2 μM, also reporting the highest concentrations of chlorophyll a and suspended particles. However, considering all measured variables, upwelling was the main disturbing factor but the pressure of fronts should not be neglected since it had consequences in the auto-heterotrophic coupling, increasing the concentrations of non fluorescent particles and POM. Stations clustered in function of natural and anthropogenic pressures degrees and both determined the temporal-spatial variability.

Variability Survey of ω Centauri in the Near-IR: Period-Luminosity Relations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Navarrete, Camila; Catelan, Márcio; Contreras Ramos, Rodrigo; Gran, Felipe; Alonso-García, Javier; Dékány, István

2015-08-01

ω Centauri (NGC 5139) is by far the most massive globular star cluster in the Milky Way, and has even been suggested to be the remnant of a dwarf galaxy. As such, it contains a large number of variable stars of different classes. Here we report on a deep, wide-field, near-infrared variability survey of omega Cen, carried out by our team using ESO's 4.1m VISTA telescope. Our time-series data comprise 42 and 100 epochs in J and Ks, respectively. This unique dataset has allowed us to derive complete light curves for hundreds of variable stars in the cluster, and thereby perform a detailed analysis of the near-infrared period-luminosity (PL) relations for different variability classes, including type II Cepheids, SX Phoenicis, and RR Lyrae stars. In this contribution, in addition to describing our survey and presenting the derived light curves, we present the resulting PL relations for each of these variability classes, including the first calibration of this sort for the SX Phoenicis stars. Based on these relations, we also provide an updated (pulsational) distance modulus for omega Cen, compare with results based on independent techniques, and discuss possible sources of systematic errors.

Effects of meteorological factors on incidence of scarlet fever during different periods in different districts of China.

PubMed

Duan, Yu; Yang, Li-Juan; Zhang, Yan-Jie; Huang, Xiao-Lei; Pan, Gui-Xia; Wang, Jing

2017-03-01

To reveal the difference of meteorological effect on scarlet fever in Beijing and Hong Kong, China, during different periods among 2004-2014. The data of monthly incidence of scarlet fever and meteorological variables from 2004 to 2014 in Beijing and Hong Kong were collected from Chinese science data center of public health, meteorological data website and Hong Kong observatory website. The whole study period was separated into two periods by the outbreak year 2011 (Jan 2004-Dec 2010 and Jan 2011-Dec 2014). A generalized additive Poisson model was conducted to estimate the effect of meteorological variables on monthly incidence of scarlet fever during two periods in Beijing and Hong Kong, China. Incidence of scarlet fever in two districts were compared and found the average incidence during period of 2004-2010 were significantly different (Z=203.973, P<0.001) while average incidence became generally equal during 2011-2014 (Z=2.125, P>0.05). There was also significant difference in meteorological variables between Beijing and Hong Kong during whole study period, except air pressure (Z=0.165, P=0.869). After fitting GAM model, it could be found monthly mean temperature showed a negative effect (RR=0.962, 95%CI: 0.933, 0.992) on scarlet fever in Hong Kong during the period of 2004-2010. By comparison, for data in Beijing during the period of 2011-2014, the RRs of monthly mean temperature range growing 1°C and monthly sunshine duration growing 1h was equal to 1.196(1.022, 1.399) and 1.006(1.001, 1.012), respectively. The changes of meteorological effect on scarlet fever over time were not significant both in Beijing and Hong Kong. This study suggests that meteorological variables were important factors for incidence of scarlet fever during different period in Beijing and Hong Kong. It also support that some meteorological effects were opposite in different period although these differences might not completely statistically significant. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The variability in Oxford hip and knee scores in the preoperative period: is there an ideal time to score?

PubMed

Quah, C; Holmes, D; Khan, T; Cockshott, S; Lewis, J; Stephen, A

2018-01-01

Background All NHS-funded providers are required to collect and report patient-reported outcome measures for hip and knee arthroplasty. Although there are established guidelines for timing such measures following arthroplasty, there are no specific time-points for collection in the preoperative period. The primary aim of this study was to identify whether there was a significant amount of variability in the Oxford hip and knee scores prior to surgical intervention when completed in the outpatient clinic at the time of listing for arthroplasty or when completed at the preoperative assessment clinic. Methods A prospective cohort study of patients listed for primary hip or knee arthroplasty was conducted. Patients were asked to fill in a preoperative Oxford score in the outpatient clinic at the time of listing. They were then invited to fill in the official outcome measures questionnaire at the preoperative assessment clinic. The postoperative Oxford score was then completed when the patient was seen again at their postoperative follow up in clinic. Results Of the total of 109 patients included in this study period, there were 18 (17%) who had a worse score of 4 or more points difference and 43 (39.4%) who had an improvement of 4 or more points difference when the scores were compared between time of listing at the outpatient and at the preoperative assessment clinic. There was a statistically significant difference (P = 0.0054) in the mean Oxford scores. Conclusions The results of our study suggest that there should be standardisation of timing for completing the preoperative patient-reported outcome measures.

Using Scaling to Understand, Model and Predict Global Scale Anthropogenic and Natural Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lovejoy, S.; del Rio Amador, L.

2014-12-01

The atmosphere is variable over twenty orders of magnitude in time (≈10-3 to 1017 s) and almost all of the variance is in the spectral "background" which we show can be divided into five scaling regimes: weather, macroweather, climate, macroclimate and megaclimate. We illustrate this with instrumental and paleo data. Based the signs of the fluctuation exponent H, we argue that while the weather is "what you get" (H>0: fluctuations increasing with scale), that it is macroweather (H<0: fluctuations decreasing with scale) - not climate - "that you expect". The conventional framework that treats the background as close to white noise and focuses on quasi-periodic variability assumes a spectrum that is in error by a factor of a quadrillion (≈ 1015). Using this scaling framework, we can quantify the natural variability, distinguish it from anthropogenic variability, test various statistical hypotheses and make stochastic climate forecasts. For example, we estimate the probability that the warming is simply a giant century long natural fluctuation is less than 1%, most likely less than 0.1% and estimate return periods for natural warming events of different strengths and durations, including the slow down ("pause") in the warming since 1998. The return period for the pause was found to be 20-50 years i.e. not very unusual; however it immediately follows a 6 year "pre-pause" warming event of almost the same magnitude with a similar return period (30 - 40 years). To improve on these unconditional estimates, we can use scaling models to exploit the long range memory of the climate process to make accurate stochastic forecasts of the climate including the pause. We illustrate stochastic forecasts on monthly and annual scale series of global and northern hemisphere surface temperatures. We obtain forecast skill nearly as high as the theoretical (scaling) predictability limits allow: for example, using hindcasts we find that at 10 year forecast horizons we can still explain ≈ 15% of the anomaly variance. These scaling hindcasts have comparable - or smaller - RMS errors than existing GCM's. We discuss how these be further improved by going beyond time series forecasts to space-time.

The influence of the North-Atlantic Oscillation on Variable Renewable Energy penetration rate in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Francois, Baptiste

2016-04-01

The on-going transition to low-carbon economy promotes the development of Variable Renewable Energies (VRE) such as wind-power, solar-power and hydro-power. The European Climate Foundation now typically dates for 2050 optimistic scenarios with close to 100 % renewable energy in Europe. When considering 100 % renewable scenarios, backup generation is needed for stabilizing the network when variable renewable energy sources such as wind, solar or run-of-the river hydropower are not sufficient for supplying the load. Several studies show that backup generation needs are reduced by dissipating power densities either in space through grids and time through storage. To our knowledge, most of these published studies were carried out using field measurements collected at meteorological and hydrological stations and over relatively short time period (less than 10 years). By using short period of times, such studies somehow disregarded the space and temporal variability of VRE power generation that could be induced by larger-scale climate variability patterns. This study investigates the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the VRE penetration for a set of 11 regions in Europe and Tunisia, and over 1980-2012 time period. These regions are located along two climate transects, the first one going from the Northern regions (Norway, Finland) to the Southern ones (Greece, Andalucía, Tunisia) and the second one going from the oceanic climate (West of France, Galicia) to the continental one (Romania, Belorussia). For each of those regions, we combine data from the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (wind speed, solar radiation; Vautard et al., 2014) and the European Climate Assessment & Dataset (temperature, precipitation; Haylock et al,. 2008) for estimating solar-power, wind-power, run-of-the-river hydro-power and the electricity demand over a time period of 33 years. For each region, we analyze seasonal differences in penetration rates of wind-, solar- and hydro-power and between positive and negative phases of the NAO index. We then discuss about opportunities of combining different VRE within the same region and among neighbor regions for limiting backup generation needs during both positive and negative NAO phases. References: Vautard, R., Thais, F., Tobin, I., Bréon, F.-M., de Lavergne, J.-G.D., Colette, A., Yiou, P., and Ruti, P.M. (2014).Regional climate model simulations indicate limited climatic impacts by operational and planned European wind farms. Nat. Commun. 5, 3196. Haylock, M.R., Hofstra, N., Tank, A.M.G.K., Klok, E.J., Jones, P.D., New, M., 2008. A European daily high-resolution gridded data set of surface temperature and precipitation for 1950-2006. J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos. 113. doi:10.1029/2008JD010201

The EPOCH Project. I. Periodic variable stars in the EROS-2 LMC database

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Dae-Won; Protopapas, Pavlos; Bailer-Jones, Coryn A. L.; Byun, Yong-Ik; Chang, Seo-Won; Marquette, Jean-Baptiste; Shin, Min-Su

2014-06-01

The EPOCH (EROS-2 periodic variable star classification using machine learning) project aims to detect periodic variable stars in the EROS-2 light curve database. In this paper, we present the first result of the classification of periodic variable stars in the EROS-2 LMC database. To classify these variables, we first built a training set by compiling known variables in the Large Magellanic Cloud area from the OGLE and MACHO surveys. We crossmatched these variables with the EROS-2 sources and extracted 22 variability features from 28 392 light curves of the corresponding EROS-2 sources. We then used the random forest method to classify the EROS-2 sources in the training set. We designed the model to separate not only δ Scuti stars, RR Lyraes, Cepheids, eclipsing binaries, and long-period variables, the superclasses, but also their subclasses, such as RRab, RRc, RRd, and RRe for RR Lyraes, and similarly for the other variable types. The model trained using only the superclasses shows 99% recall and precision, while the model trained on all subclasses shows 87% recall and precision. We applied the trained model to the entire EROS-2 LMC database, which contains about 29 million sources, and found 117 234 periodic variable candidates. Out of these 117 234 periodic variables, 55 285 have not been discovered by either OGLE or MACHO variability studies. This set comprises 1906 δ Scuti stars, 6607 RR Lyraes, 638 Cepheids, 178 Type II Cepheids, 34 562 eclipsing binaries, and 11 394 long-period variables. catalog of these EROS-2 LMC periodic variable stars is available at http://stardb.yonsei.ac.kr and at the CDS via anonymous ftp to http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr (ftp://130.79.128.5) or via http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr/viz-bin/qcat?J/A+A/566/A43

Double cyclic variations in orbital period of the eclipsing cataclysmic variable EX Dra

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Zhong-tao; Qian, Sheng-bang; Voloshina, Irina; Zhu, Li-Ying

2017-06-01

EX Dra is a long-period eclipsing dwarf nova with ˜2-3 mag amplitude outbursts. This star has been monitored photometrically from November, 2009 to March, 2016 and 29 new mid-eclipse times were obtained. By using new data together with the published data, the best fit to the O-C curve indicate that the orbital period of EX Dra have an upward parabolic change while undergoing double-cyclic variations with the periods of 21.4 and 3.99 years, respectively. The upward parabolic change reveals a long-term increase at a rate of \\dot{P}= {+7.46}×10^{-11} s s^{-1}. The evolutionary theory of cataclysmic variables (CVs) predicts that, as a CV evolves, the orbital period should be decreasing rather than increasing. Secular increase can be explained as the mass transfer between the secondary and primary or may be just an observed part of a longer cyclic change. Most plausible explanation for the double-cyclic variations is a pair of light travel-time effect via the presence of two companions. Their masses are determined to be MAsin i'A=29.3(±0.6) M_{Jup} and MBsin i'B=50.8(±0.2) M_{Jup}. When the two companions are coplanar to the orbital plane of the central eclipsing pair, their masses would match to brown dwarfs.

The new eclipsing magnetic binary system E 1114 + 182

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Biermann, P.; Schmidt, G. D.; Liebert, J.; Tapia, S.; Strittmatter, P. A.; West, S.; Stockman, H. S.; Kuehr, H.; Lamb, D. Q.

1985-01-01

A comprehensive analysis of E 1114 + 182, the first eclipsing AM Herculis binary system and the shortest-period eclipsing cataclysmic variable known, is presented. The time-resolved X-ray observations which led to the system's recognition as an AM Her system with a roughly 90 minute orbital period are reported. The current optical photometric and polarimetric ephemeris and a description of the system's phase-modulated properties are given. The detailed photometric eclipse profile and the highly variable spectroscopic behavior are addressed. This information is used to determine systemic parameters and derive new information on the line emission regions. The data put severe constraints on current torque models for keeping the binary and white dwarf rotation in phase.

Highlights of the LINEAR survey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palaversa, L.

2014-07-01

Lincoln Near-Earth Asteroid Research asteroid survey (LINEAR) observed proximately 10,000 deg2 of the northern sky in period roughly from 1998 to 2013. Long baseline of observations combined with good cadence and depth (14.5 < rSDSS < 17.5) provides excellent basis for investigation of variable and transient objects in this relatively faint and underexplored part of the sky. Details covering the repurposing of this survey for use in time domain astronomy, creation of a highly reliable catalogue of approximately 7,200 periodically variable stars (RR Lyrae, eclipsing binaries, SX Phe stars and LPVs) as well as search for optical signatures of exotic transient events (such as tidal disruption event candidates), are presented.

Flight attendant fatigue : a quantitative review of flight attendant comments.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-10-01

Todays aviation industry is a 24/7 operation that produces a variety of challenges for cabin crew members : including extended duty periods, highly variable schedules, frequent time zone changes, and increased passenger : loads. The present conten...

Integration of Fixed and Flexible Route Public Transportation Systems, Phase I

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-01-01

To provide efficient public transportation services in areas with high demand variability over time, it may be desirable : to switch vehicles between conventional services (with fixed routes and schedules) during peak periods and flexible : route ser...

Searching for Variables in one of the WHAT Fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shporer, A.; Mazeh, T.; Moran, A.; Bakos, G.; Kovacs, G.

2007-07-01

We present preliminary results on a single field observed by WHAT, a small-aperture short focal length automated telescope with an 8.2° × 8.2° deg field of view, located at the Wise Observatory. The system is similar to the members of HATNet (http://cfa-www.harvard.edu/~gbakos/HAT/) and is aimed at searching for transiting extrasolar planets and variable objects. With 5 min integration time, the telescope achieved a precision of a few mmag for the brightest objects. We detect variables with amplitudes less than 0.01 mag. All 152 periodic variables are presented at http://wise-obs.tau.ac.il/~amit/236/.

The Temporal and Spatial Variability of the Confined Aquifer Head and Storage Properties in the San Luis Valley, Colorado Inferred From Multiple InSAR Missions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Jingyi; Knight, Rosemary; Zebker, Howard A.

2017-11-01

Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data from multiple satellite missions were combined to study the temporal and spatial variability of head and storage properties in a confined aquifer system on a decadal time scale. The area of study was a 4,500 km2 agricultural basin in the San Luis Valley (SLV), Colorado. We had available previous analyses of C-band ERS-1/2 data from June 1992 to November 2000, and L-band ALOS PALSAR data from October 2009 to March 2011. We used C-band Envisat data to fill in the time period from November 2006 to July 2010. In processing the Envisat data, we successfully employed a phase interpolation between persistent scatterer pixels to reduce the impact of vegetation decorrelation, which can significantly reduce the quality of C-band InSAR data over agricultural basins. In comparing the results from the L-band ALOS data and C-band Envisat data in a 10 month overlapping time period, we found that the shorter wavelength of C-band InSAR allowed us to preserve small deformation signals that were not detectable using L-band ALOS data. A significant result was the finding that the elastic storage properties of the SLV confined aquifer system remained stable over the 20 year time period and vary slowly in space, allowing us to combine InSAR data acquired from multiple missions to fill the temporal and spatial gaps in well data. The InSAR estimated head levels were validated with well measurements, which indicate little permanent water-storage loss over the study time period in the SLV.

Blue large-amplitude pulsators as a new class of variable stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pietrukowicz, Paweł; Dziembowski, Wojciech A.; Latour, Marilyn; Angeloni, Rodolfo; Poleski, Radosław; di Mille, Francesco; Soszyński, Igor; Udalski, Andrzej; Szymański, Michał K.; Wyrzykowski, Łukasz; Kozłowski, Szymon; Skowron, Jan; Skowron, Dorota; Mróz, Przemek; Pawlak, Michał; Ulaczyk, Krzysztof

2017-08-01

Regular intrinsic brightness variations observed in many stars are caused by pulsations. These pulsations provide information on the global and structural parameters of the star. The pulsation periods range from seconds to years, depending on the compactness of the star and properties of the matter that forms its outer layers. Here, we report the discovery of more than a dozen previously unknown short-period variable stars: blue large-amplitude pulsators. These objects show very regular brightness variations with periods in the range of 20-40 min and amplitudes of 0.2-0.4 mag in the optical passbands. The phased light curves have a characteristic sawtooth shape, similar to the shape of classical Cepheids and RR Lyrae-type stars pulsating in the fundamental mode. The objects are significantly bluer than main-sequence stars observed in the same fields, which indicates that all of them are hot stars. Follow-up spectroscopy confirms a high surface temperature of about 30,000 K. Temperature and colour changes over the cycle prove the pulsational nature of the variables. However, large-amplitude pulsations at such short periods are not observed in any known type of stars, including hot objects. Long-term photometric observations show that the variable stars are very stable over time. Derived rates of period change are of the order of 10-7 per year and, in most cases, they are positive. According to pulsation theory, such large-amplitude oscillations may occur in evolved low-mass stars that have inflated helium-enriched envelopes. The evolutionary path that could lead to such stellar configurations remains unknown.

Seasonal and interannual variability of chlorophyll-a and associated physical synchronous variability in the western tropical Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hou, Xueyan; Dong, Qing; Xue, Cunjin; Wu, Shuchao

2016-06-01

Based on long-term satellite-derived ocean data sets and methods of empirical orthogonal function and singular value decomposition, we investigated the spatiotemporal variability of the chlorophyll-a concentration (CHL) on seasonal and interannual timescales in the western tropical Pacific associated with physical ocean variables of sea surface temperature (SST), sea level anomaly (SLA) and sea surface wind (SSW), and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index. The bio-physical synchronous variation on interannual timescale was also confirmed in terms of the scales of variability and oscillation periods in the time-frequency space using the methods of Fourier transform, Morlet wavelet transform, and wavelet coherence analysis. On a seasonal timescale, the first two modes of the monthly mean CHL fields described the consecutive spatiotemporal variation in CHL in the western tropical Pacific. CHL reached the maximum during late winter-early spring and minimum during summer-early autumn with the exception of the northeast of Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Islands. The CHL bloom in boreal winter-spring was closely associated with cold SST, high sea level along the North Equatorial Countercurrent meanders, and strong wind. On an interannual timescale, the variability of CHL exhibited a close correlation with SST, SLA, SSW, and ENSO. During El Niño, CHL increased in the oligotrophic western basin of the warm pool associated with cold SST, low SLA, and strong westerly winds but decreased in the mesotrophic eastern basin of the warm pool in association with warm SST, high SLA, and weak easterly trade winds. There may exist time-lag for the bio-physical covariation, i.e., CHL and SST varied simultaneously within 1 month, and CHL variations led SLA by approximately 0-3 months but lagged wind speed by about 1 month. In the time-frequency domain, the interannual variability in CHL and physical ocean variables had high common power, indicating that the variability scales and oscillation periods of CHL were significantly related to these of SST, SLA, and ENSO index. The significant anti-phase relationships were also shown between CHL and SST, CHL and SLA, and CHL and multivariate ENSO index through the wavelet coherence analysis.

An unusual very low-mass high-amplitude pre-main sequence periodic variable

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodríguez-Ledesma, M. V.; Mundt, R.; Ibrahimov, M.; Messina, S.; Parihar, P.; Hessman, F. V.; Alves de Oliveira, C.; Herbst, W.

2012-08-01

Aims: We have investigated the nature of the variability of CHS 7797, an unusual periodic variable in the Orion Nebula Cluster. Methods: An extensive I-band photometric data set of CHS 7797 was compiled between 2004-2010 using various telescopes. Further optical data have been collected in R and z' bands. In addition, simultaneous observations of the ONC region including CHS 7797 were performed in the I,J,Ks & IRAC 3.6 and 4.5 μm bands over a time interval of ≈40 d. Results: CHS 7797 shows an unusual large-amplitude variation of ≈1.7 mag in the R,I, and z' bands with a period 17.786 ± 0.03 d (FAP = 1 × 10-15%). The amplitude of the brightness modulation decreases only slightly at longer wavelengths. The star is faint during ≈2/3 of the period and the shape of the phased light-curves for the seven different observing seasons shows minor changes and small-amplitude variations. Interestingly, there are no significant colour-flux correlations for λ ≲ 2 μm, while the object becomes redder when fainter at longer wavelengths. CHS 7797 has a spectral type of M 6 and an estimated mass between 0.04-0.1 M⊙. Conclusions: The analysis of the data suggests that the periodic variability of CHS 7797 is most probably caused by an orbital motion. Variability as a result of rotational brightness modulation by a hot spot is excluded by the lack of any colour-brightness correlation in the optical. The latter indicates that CHS 7797 is most probably occulted by circumstellar matter in which grains have grown from typical 0.1 μm to ≈1-2 μm sizes. We discuss two possible scenarios in which CHS 7797 is periodically eclipsed by structures in a disc, namely that CHS 7797 is a single object with a circumstellar disc, or that CHS 7797 is a binary system, similar to KH 15D, in which an inclined circumbinary disc is responsible of the variability. Possible reasons for the typical 0.3 mag variations in I-band at a given phase are discussed.

Free Oscillations of the Facula Node at the Stage of Slow Dissipation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Solov'ev, A. A.; Kirichek, E. A.; Efremov, V. I.

2017-12-01

A solar faculae having an appearance of quite long-lived magnetic nodes can perform (as well as sunspots, chromospheric filaments, coronal loops) free oscillations, i.e., they can oscillate about the stable equilibrium position as a single whole, changing quasi-periodically magnetic field averaged over the section with periods from 1 to 4 hours. Kolotkov et al. (2017) described the case in which the average magnetic field strength of the facula node considerably decreased during observations of SDO magnetograms (13 hours), and, at the same time, its oscillations acquired a specific character: the fundamental mode of free oscillations of the facula considerably increased in amplitude (by approximately two times), while the period of oscillations increased by three times. At the end of the process, the system dissipated. In this work, we present the exact solution of the equation of small-amplitude oscillations of the system with a time-variable rigidity, describing the oscillation behavior at which the elasticity of the system decreases with time, while the period and amplitude of oscillations grow.

An Hα-selected sample of cataclysmic variables - I. Observations of newly discovered systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pretorius, Magaretha L.; Knigge, Christian

2008-04-01

Strong selection effects are present in observational samples of cataclysmic variables (CVs), complicating comparisons to theoretical predictions. The selection criteria used to define most CV samples discriminate heavily against the discovery of short-period, intrinsically faint systems. The situation can be improved by selecting CVs for the presence of emission lines. For this reason, we have constructed a homogeneous sample of CVs selected on the basis of Hα emission. We present discovery observations of the 14 CVs and two additional CV candidates found in this search. The orbital periods of 11 of the new CVs were measured; all are above 3 h. There are two eclipsing systems in the sample, and one in which we observed a quasi-periodic modulation on a ~1000s time-scale. We also detect the secondary star in the spectrum of one system, and measure its spectral type. Several of the new CVs have the spectroscopic appearance of nova-like variables, and a few display what may be SW Sex star behaviour. In a companion paper, we discuss the implications of this new sample for CV evolution.

The rotation of very low mass objects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scholz, Alexander

2004-10-01

This dissertation contains an investigation of the rotation of very low mass objects, i.e. Brown Dwarfs and stars with masses <0.4 MS. Today, it is well-established that there are large populations of such VLM objects in open clusters and in the field, but our knowledge about their physical properties and evolution is still very limited. Contrary to their solar-mass siblings, VLM objects are fully convective throughout their evolution. Thus, they are not able to form a large-scale magnetic field like for example the sun. The magnetic field, in turn, is crucial for the regulation of rotation: Magnetic interaction between star and circumstellar disk ("disk-locking") and angular momentum losses through stellar winds have dominant influence on the rotational evolution. Thus, we can expect major differences in the rotational behaviour of VLM objects and solar-mass stars. The best method to investigate stellar rotation is to measure rotation periods. If a star exhibits surface features which are asymmetrically distributed, its brightness may be modulated with the rotation period. Thus, this dissertation is based on the analysis of photometric time series. Open clusters are an ideal environment for such a project, since they enable one to follow many objects at the same time. Additionally, they allow one to investigate the age and mass dependence of rotation, because distance and age of the clusters are known in good approximation. For this thesis, five open clusters were observed, which span an age range from 3 to 750 Myr. In three of them (SigmaOri, EpsilonOri, IC4665), VLM objects were identified by means of colour magnitude diagrams. The candidate lists for these three regions comprise at least 100 objects, for which photometry in at least three wavelength bands is available. About a fifth to a third of these candidates could be contaminating field stars in the fore- or background of the clusters. For the remaining two clusters (Pleiades and Praesepe), objects from the literature were selected as targets for the variability study. Masses for all these candidates were estimated by comparing the photometry with stellar evolutionary tracks. For each of the clusters, at least one photometric monitoring campaign was carried out; three of them were observed twice. Subsequently, the magnitudes of the VLM objects were measured relative to non-variable stars in the same fields. The difference image analysis procedure was used to improve the precision for two time series. That way, a photometric precision between 5 and 20 mmag was reached for the brightest stars. A comparison of several period search techniques showed that periodogram analysis delivers by far the best results for the available time series data. Beside the Scargle and CLEAN periodogram, the period search includes several independent and robust control procedures, to assure the reliability of the results. Additionally, a test to identify even non-periodic variability was implemented. For 87 candidates, a photometric rotation period was determined, 80 of these objects have masses <0.4 MS. Thus, this work increases the number of known VLM rotation periods in the age range between 3 and 750 Myr by a factor of 14. Altogether, about 30-50% of the candidates are variable. In the two youngest clusters, several objects show variability with very high amplitudes between 0.2 and 1.1 mag. Their lightcurves contain in the most cases a periodic component, but additionally irregular brightness variations. For two VLM stars, a flare event was detected. The origin of the periodic variability is surface features co-rotating with the objects. In most cases, these surface features are cool magnetically induced spots. From the lightcurves, it can be concluded that the spot properties change on timescales of at most two or three weeks. The amplitudes of the lightcurves are in the VLM regime by a factor of 2.4 smaller than for solar-mass stars, indicating a change of the spot properties with mass. The best explanation for this phenomenon is a more symmetric spot distribution on VLM objects. Additionally, it is probable that the contrast between spots and photospheric environment is smaller than for more massive stars. The lightcurves of the highly variable objects in the youngest clusters cannot be understood only with cool spots. This kind of variability resembles very much the photometric behaviour of classical T Tauri stars, i.e. stars which accrete matter from a circumstellar disk. Thus, it is likely that the highly variable VLM objects possess accretion disks as well. This interpretation is confirmed by near-infrared photometry and optical spectroscopy. For VLM objects in the SigmaOri cluster, a disk frequency of 6-14% was estimated. From this value and the age of SigmaOri it follows that VLM objects loose their disk on shorter timescales than solar-mass stars, which could be an indication for a formation through ejection from a multiple system. This result, however, needs confirmation, since the derived disk frequency should only be considered as a lower limit. The majority of the periodic variable objects rotate with periods <2 d. Slow rotators, with periods longer than 2d, are rare, in contrast to solar-mass stars. For M<0.3 MS, a tendency of faster rotation with decreasing object mass is observed. The origin of this tendency lies very probably in the earliest phases of the rotational evolution. The lower limit of the periods is, within the statistical uncertainties, nearly independent of age and ranges from three to six hours. On the other hand, the upper period limit clearly evolves with time. Between ages of 3 and 100 Myr, it declines from at least ten days to about two days. Afterwards, it increases again up to at least four days. To investigate this behaviour in more detail, simple models were constructed which simulate the basic mechanisms of angular momentum regulation. It turns out that the basic aspects of the rotational evolution can be understood if one takes into account the contraction of the objects and exponential rotational braking through stellar winds. On the contrary, for solar-mass stars the angular momentum losses through stellar winds can be described with the Skumanich law, which predicts a period increase proportional to the squareroot of time. This Skumanich law is not applicable in the VLM regime. Moreover, in the considered age range, the influence of "disk-locking" is negligible. Many of these results can be understood by taking into account the fact that VLM objects are fully convective and cannot possess a large-scale magnetic field. This basic physical property could be responsible for the fast rotation, the breakdown of the Skumanich law, the exponential braking of the rotation, and a more symmetric spot distribution. Thus, main results of this thesis can be ascribed to the internal structure of VLM objects.

An analysis of surface air temperature trends and variability along the Andes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Franquist, Eric S.

Climate change is difficult to study in mountainous regions such as the Andes since steep changes in elevation cannot always be resolved by climate models. However, it is important to examine temperature trends in this region as rises in surface air temperature are leading to the melting of tropical glaciers. Local communities rely on the glacier-fed streamflow to get their water for drinking, irrigation, and livestock. Moreover, communities also rely on the tourism of hikers who come to the region to view the glaciers. As the temperatures increase, these glaciers are no longer in equilibrium with their current climate and are receding rapidly and decreasing the streamflow. This thesis examines surface air temperature from 858 weather stations across Ecuador, Peru, and Chile in order to analyze changes in trends and variability. Three time periods were studied: 1961--1990, 1971--2000, and 1981--2010. The greatest warming occurred during the period of 1971--2000 with 92% of the stations experiencing positive trends with a mean of 0.24°C/decade. There was a clear shift toward cooler temperatures at all latitudes and below elevations of 500 m during the most recent time period studied (1981--2010). Station temperatures were more strongly correlated with the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), than the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). A principal component analysis confirmed ENSO as the main contributor of variability with the most influence in the lower latitudes. There were clear multidecadal changes in correlation strength for the PDO. The PDO contributed the most to the increases in station temperature trends during the 1961--1990 period, consistent with the PDO shift to the positive phase in the middle of this period. There were many strong positive trends at individual stations during the 1971--2000 period; however, these trends could not fully be attributed to ENSO, PDO, or SAM, indicating anthropogenic effects of greenhouse gas emissions as the most likely cause.

1996-2007 Interannual Spatio-Temporal Variability in Snowmelt in Two Montane Watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jepsen, S. M.; Molotch, N. P.; Williams, M. W.; Rittger, K. E.; Sickman, J. O.

2010-12-01

Snowmelt is a primary water resource for urban/agricultural centers and ecosystems near mountain regions. Stream chemistry from montane catchments is controlled by the flowpaths of water from snowmelt and the timing and duration of snow coverage. A process level understanding of the variability in these processes requires an understanding of the effect of changing climate and anthropogenic loading on spatio-temporal snowmelt patterns. With this as our objective, we applied a snow reconstruction model (SRM) to two well-studied montane watersheds, Tokopah Basin (TOK), California and Green Lake 4 Valley (GLV), Colorado, to examine interannual variability in the timing and location of snowmelt in response to variable climate conditions during the period from 1996 to 2007. The reconstruction model back solves for snowmelt by combining surface energy fluxes, inferred from meteorological data, with sequences of melt season snow images derived from satellite data (i.e., snowmelt depletion curves). The SRM explained 84% of the observed interannual variability in maximum watershed SWE in TOK, with errors ranging from -23 to +27% for the different years. For GLV4, the SRM explained 61% of the interannual variability, with errors ranging from -37 to +34%. In GLV4, interannual variability in snowmelt timing is a factor of four greater than the variability in streamflow timing, unlike in TOK where the ratio is nearly 1:1. We attribute this difference primarily to differences in the magnitude of the turbulent fluxes and the hydrogeology of the two study areas.

Analysis of trends and dominant periodicities in drought variables in India: A wavelet transform based approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joshi, Nitin; Gupta, Divya; Suryavanshi, Shakti; Adamowski, Jan; Madramootoo, Chandra A.

2016-12-01

In this study, seasonal trends as well as dominant and significant periods of variability of drought variables were analyzed for 30 rainfall subdivisions in India over 141 years (1871-2012). Standardized precipitation index (SPI) was used as a meteorological drought indicator, and various drought variables (monsoon SPI, non-monsoon SPI, yearly SPI, annual drought duration, annual drought severity and annual drought peak) were analyzed. Discrete wavelet transform was used in conjunction with the Mann-Kendall test to analyze trends and dominant periodicities associated with the drought variables. Furthermore, continuous wavelet transform (CWT) based global wavelet spectrum was used to analyze significant periods of variability associated with the drought variables. From the trend analysis, we observed that over the second half of the 20th century, drought occurrences increased significantly in subdivisions of Northeast and Central India. In both short-term (2-8 years) and decadal (16-32 years) periodicities, the drought variables were found to influence the trend. However, CWT analysis indicated that the dominant periodic components were not significant for most of the geographical subdivisions. Although inter-annual and inter-decadal periodic components play an important role, they may not completely explain the variability associated with the drought variables across the country.

The time-domain behavior of power-law noises. [of many geophysical phenomena

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Agnew, Duncan C.

1992-01-01

The power spectra of many geophysical phenomena are well approximated by a power-law dependence on frequency or wavenumber. A simple expression for the root-mean-square variability of a process with such a spectrum over an interval of time or space is derived. The resulting expression yields the powerlaw time dependence characteristic of fractal processes, but can be generalized to give the temporal variability for more general spectral behaviors. The method is applied to spectra of crustal strain (to show what size of strain events can be detected over periods of months to seconds) and of sea level (to show the difficulty of extracting long-term rates from short records).

Statistical Analysis of Categorical Time Series of Atmospheric Elementary Circulation Mechanisms - Dzerdzeevski Classification for the Northern Hemisphere

PubMed Central

Brenčič, Mihael

2016-01-01

Northern hemisphere elementary circulation mechanisms, defined with the Dzerdzeevski classification and published on a daily basis from 1899–2012, are analysed with statistical methods as continuous categorical time series. Classification consists of 41 elementary circulation mechanisms (ECM), which are assigned to calendar days. Empirical marginal probabilities of each ECM were determined. Seasonality and the periodicity effect were investigated with moving dispersion filters and randomisation procedure on the ECM categories as well as with the time analyses of the ECM mode. The time series were determined as being non-stationary with strong time-dependent trends. During the investigated period, periodicity interchanges with periods when no seasonality is present. In the time series structure, the strongest division is visible at the milestone of 1986, showing that the atmospheric circulation pattern reflected in the ECM has significantly changed. This change is result of the change in the frequency of ECM categories; before 1986, the appearance of ECM was more diverse, and afterwards fewer ECMs appear. The statistical approach applied to the categorical climatic time series opens up new potential insight into climate variability and change studies that have to be performed in the future. PMID:27116375

Statistical Analysis of Categorical Time Series of Atmospheric Elementary Circulation Mechanisms - Dzerdzeevski Classification for the Northern Hemisphere.

PubMed

Brenčič, Mihael

2016-01-01

Northern hemisphere elementary circulation mechanisms, defined with the Dzerdzeevski classification and published on a daily basis from 1899-2012, are analysed with statistical methods as continuous categorical time series. Classification consists of 41 elementary circulation mechanisms (ECM), which are assigned to calendar days. Empirical marginal probabilities of each ECM were determined. Seasonality and the periodicity effect were investigated with moving dispersion filters and randomisation procedure on the ECM categories as well as with the time analyses of the ECM mode. The time series were determined as being non-stationary with strong time-dependent trends. During the investigated period, periodicity interchanges with periods when no seasonality is present. In the time series structure, the strongest division is visible at the milestone of 1986, showing that the atmospheric circulation pattern reflected in the ECM has significantly changed. This change is result of the change in the frequency of ECM categories; before 1986, the appearance of ECM was more diverse, and afterwards fewer ECMs appear. The statistical approach applied to the categorical climatic time series opens up new potential insight into climate variability and change studies that have to be performed in the future.

About the cumulants of periodic signals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barrau, Axel; El Badaoui, Mohammed

2018-01-01

This note studies cumulants of time series. These functions originating from the probability theory being commonly used as features of deterministic signals, their classical properties are examined in this modified framework. We show additivity of cumulants, ensured in the case of independent random variables, requires here a different hypothesis. Practical applications are proposed, in particular an analysis of the failure of the JADE algorithm to separate some specific periodic signals.

Resonant interaction of ϕ4 kink with PT-symmetric perturbation with spatially periodic gain/loss coefficient

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saadatmand, Danial; Borisov, Denis I.; Kevrekidis, Panayotis G.; Zhou, Kun; Dmitriev, Sergey V.

2018-03-01

The resonant interaction of the ϕ4 kink with a PT-symmetric perturbation is observed in the numerical study performed in the frame of the continuum model and with the help of a two degree of freedom collective variable model derived in PRA 89, 010102(R). The perturbation is in the form of first partial derivative in time term with a spatially periodic gain/loss coefficient. When the kink interacts with the perturbation, the kink's internal mode is excited with the amplitude varying in time quasiperiodically. The maximal value of the amplitude was found to grow when the kink velocity is such that it travels one period of the gain/loss prefactor in nearly one period of the kink's internal mode. It is also found that the kink's translational and vibrational modes are coupled in a way that an increase in the kink's internal mode amplitude results in a decrease in kink velocity. The results obtained with the collective variable method are in a good qualitative agreement with the numerical simulations for the continuum model. The results of the present study suggest that kink dynamics in open systems with balanced gain and loss can have new features in comparison with the case of conservative systems.

Backyard Telescopes Watch an Expanding Binary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kohler, Susanna

2018-01-01

What can you do with a team of people armed with backyard telescopes and a decade of patience? Test how binary star systems evolve under Einsteins general theory of relativity!Unusual VariablesCataclysmic variables irregularly brightening binary stars consisting of an accreting white dwarf and a donor star are a favorite target among amateur astronomers: theyre detectable even with small telescopes, and theres a lot we can learn about stellar astrophysics by observing them, if were patient.Diagram of a cataclysmic variable. In an AM CVn, the donor is most likely a white dwarf as well, or a low-mass helium star. [Philip D. Hall]Among the large family of cataclysmic variables is one unusual type: the extremely short-period AM Canum Venaticorum (AM CVn) stars. These rare variables (only 40 are known) are unique in having spectra dominated by helium, suggesting that they contain little or no hydrogen. Because of this, scientists have speculated that the donor stars in these systems are either white dwarfs themselves or very low-mass helium stars.Why study AM CVn stars? Because their unusual configuration allows us to predict the behavior of their orbital evolution. According to the general theory of relativity, the two components of an AM CVn will spiral closer and closer as the system loses angular momentum to gravitational-wave emission. Eventually they will get so close that the low-mass companion star overflows its Roche lobe, beginning mass transfer to the white dwarf. At this point, the orbital evolution will reverse and the binary orbit will expand, increasing its period.CBA member Enrique de Miguel, lead author on the study, with his backyard telescope in Huelva, Spain. [Enrique de Miguel]Backyard Astronomy Hard at WorkMeasuring the evolution of an AM CVns orbital period is the best way to confirm this model, but this is no simple task! To observe this evolution, we first need a system with a period that can be very precisely measured best achieved with an eclipsing binary system. Then the system must be observed regularly over a very long period of time.Though such a feat is challenging, a team of astronomers has done precisely this. The Center for Backyard Astrophysics (CBA) a group of primarily amateur astronomers located around the world has collectively observed the AM CVn star system ES Ceti using seven different telescopes over more than a decade. In total, they now have measurements of ES Cetis period spanning 20012017. Now, in a publication led by Enrique de Miguel (CBA-Huelva and University of Huelva, Spain), the group details the outcomes of their patience.Testing the ModelThis OC diagram of the timings of minimum light relative to a test ephemeris demonstrates that ES Cetis orbital period is steadily increasing over time. [de Miguel et al. 2017]De Miguel and collaborators find that ES Cetis 10.3-minute orbital period has indeed increased over time as predicted by the model at a relatively rapid rate: the timescale for change, described by P/(dP/dt), is 10 million years. This outcome is consistent with the hypothesis that the mass transfer and binary evolution of such systems is driven by gravitational radiation marking one of the first such demonstrations with a cataclysmic variable.Whats next for ES Ceti? Systems such as this one will make for interesting targets for the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA; planned for a 2034 launch). The gravitational radiation emitted by AM CVns like ES Ceti should be strong enough and in the right frequency range to be detected by LISA, providing another test of our models for how these star systems evolve.CitationEnrique de Miguel et al 2018 ApJ 852 19. doi:10.3847/1538-4357/aa9ed6

The influence of environmental variables on platelet concentration in horse platelet-rich plasma.

PubMed

Rinnovati, Riccardo; Romagnoli, Noemi; Gentilini, Fabio; Lambertini, Carlotta; Spadari, Alessandro

2016-07-04

Platelet-rich plasma (PRP) commonly refers to blood products which contain a higher platelet (PLT) concentration as compared to normal plasma. Autologous PRP has been shown to be safe and effective in promoting the natural processes of soft tissue healing or reconstruction in humans and horses. Variability in PLT concentration has been observed in practice between PRP preparations from different patients or from the same individual under different conditions. A change in PLT concentration could modify PRP efficacy in routine applications. The aim of this study was to test the influence of environmental, individual and agonistic variables on the PLT concentration of PRP in horses. Six healthy Standardbred mares were exposed to six different variables with a one-week washout period between variables, and PRP was subsequently obtained from each horse. The variables were time of withdrawal during the day (morning/evening), hydration status (overhydration/dehydration) treatment with anti-inflammatory drugs and training periods on a treadmill. The platelet concentration was significantly higher in horses treated with a non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug (P = 0.03). The leukocyte concentration increased 2-9 fold with respect to whole blood in the PRP which was obtained after exposure to all the variable considered. Environmental variation in platelet concentration should be taken into consideration during PRP preparation.

Intraseasonal variability and tides in Makassar Strait

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Susanto, R. Dwi; Gordon, Arnold L.; Sprintall, Janet; Herunadi, Bambang

2000-05-01

Intraseasonal variability and tides along the Makassar Strait, the major route of Indonesian throughflow, are investigated using spectral and time-frequency analyses which are applied to sea level, wind and mooring data. Semidiurnal and diurnal tides are dominant features, with higher (lower) semidiurnal (diurnal) energy in the north compared to the south. Sea levels and mooring data display intraseasonal variability which are probably a response to remotely forced Kelvin waves from the Indian Ocean through Lombok Strait and to Rossby waves from the Pacific Ocean. Sea levels in Tarakan and Balikpapan and Makassar mooring velocities reveal intraseasonal features with periods of 48-62 days associated with Rossby waves from the Sulawesi Sea. Kelvin wave features with periods of 67-100 days are seen in Bali (Lombok Strait), at the mooring sites and in Balikpapan, however, they are not seen in Tarakan, which implies that these waves diminish after passing through the Makassar Strait.

Daily and 3-hourly Variability in Global Fire Emissions and Consequences for Atmospheric Model Predictions of Carbon Monoxide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mu, M.; Randerson, J. T.; vanderWerf, G. R.; Giglio, L.; Kasibhatla, P.; Morton, D.; Collatz, G. J.; DeFries, R. S.; Hyer, E. J.; Prins, E. M.;

Daily and Hourly Variability in Global Fire Emissions and Consequences for Atmospheric Model Predictions of Carbon Monoxide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mu, M.; Randerson, J. T.; van der Werf, G. R.; Giglio, L.; Kasibhatla, P.; Morton, D.; Collatz, G. J.; DeFries, R. S.; Hyer, E. J.; Prins, E. M.;

Millennial-scale Climate Variations Recorded As Far Back As The Early Pliocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steenbrink, J.; Hilgen, F. J.; Lourens, L. J.

Quaternary climate proxy records show compelling evidence for climate variability on time scales of a few thousand years. The causes for these millennial-scale or sub- Milankovitch cycles are yet poorly understood, not in the least due to the complex feedback mechanisms of large ice-sheets during the Quaternary. We present evidence of millennial-scale climate variability in Early Pliocene lacustrine sediments from the intramontane Ptolemais Basin in northwestern Greece. The sediments are well ex- posed in a series of open-pit lignite mines and exhibit a distinct m-scale sedimentary cyclicity of alternating lignites and lacustrine marl beds that result from precession- induced variations in climate. A higher-frequency cyclicity is particular prominent within the marl segment of individual cycles. A stratigraphic interval of~115 kyr, cov- ering five precession-induced sedimentary cycles, was studied in nine parallel sections from two quarries located several km apart. Colour reflectance records were used to quantify the within-cycle variability and to determine its lateral continuity. Much of the within-cycle variability could be correlated between the parallel sections, even in fine detail, which suggests that these changes reflect basin-wide variations in environ- mental conditions related to (regional) climate fluctuations. Interbedded volcanic ash beds demonstrate the synchronicity of these fluctuations and spectral analysis of the reflectance time series shows a significant concentration of variability at periods of ~11,~5.5 and~2 kyr. Their occurrence at times before the intensification of the North- ern Hemisphere glaciation suggests that they cannot solely have resulted from internal ice-sheet dynamics. Possible candidates include harmonics or combination tones of the main orbital cycles, variations in solar output or periodic motions of the Earth and moon.

On the day-to-day variation of the equatorial electrojet during quiet periods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamazaki, Y.; Richmond, A. D.; Maute, A.; Liu, H.-L.; Pedatella, N.; Sassi, F.

2014-08-01

It has been known for a long time that the equatorial electrojet varies from day to day even when solar and geomagnetic activities are very low. The quiet time day-to-day variation is considered to be due to irregular variability of the neutral wind, but little is known about how variable winds drive the electrojet variability. We employ a numerical model introduced by Liu et al. (2013), which takes into account weather changes in the lower atmosphere and thus can reproduce ionospheric variability due to forcing from below. The simulation is run for May and June 2009. Constant solar and magnetospheric energy inputs are used so that day-to-day changes will arise only from lower atmospheric forcing. The simulated electrojet current shows day-to-day variability of ±25%, which produces day-to-day variations in ground level geomagnetic perturbations near the magnetic equator. The current system associated with the day-to-day variation of the equatorial electrojet is traced based on a covariance analysis. The current pattern reveals return flow at both sides of the electrojet, in agreement with those inferred from ground-based magnetometer data in previous studies. The day-to-day variation in the electrojet current is compared with those in the neutral wind at various altitudes, latitudes, and longitudes. It is found that the electrojet variability is dominated by the zonal wind at 100-120 km altitudes near the magnetic equator. These results suggest that the response of the zonal polarization electric field to variable zonal winds is the main source of the day-to-day variation of the equatorial electrojet during quiet periods.

Can we explain the observed methane variability after the Mount Pinatubo eruption?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bândă, N.; Krol, M.; van Weele, M.; van Noije, T.; Le Sager, P.; Röckmann, T.

2015-07-01

The CH4 growth rate in the atmosphere showed large variations after the Pinatubo eruption in June 1991. A decrease of more than 10 ppb yr-1 in the growth rate over the course of 1992 was reported and a partial recovery in the following year. Although several reasons have been proposed to explain the evolution of CH4 after the eruption, their contributions to the observed variations are not yet resolved. CH4 is removed from the atmosphere by the reaction with tropospheric OH, which in turn is produced by O3 photolysis under UV radiation. The CH4 removal after the Pinatubo eruption might have been affected by changes in tropospheric UV levels due to the presence of stratospheric SO2 and sulfate aerosols, and due to enhanced ozone depletion on Pinatubo aerosols. The perturbed climate after the eruption also altered both sources and sinks of atmospheric CH4. Furthermore, CH4 concentrations were influenced by other factors of natural variability in that period, such as ENSO and biomass burning events. Emissions of CO, NOX and NMVOCs also affected CH4 concentrations indirectly by influencing tropospheric OH levels. Potential drivers of CH4 variability are investigated using the TM5 global chemistry model. The contribution that each driver had to the global CH4 variability during the period 1990 to 1995 is quantified. We find that a decrease of 8-10 ppb yr-1 CH4 is explained by a combination of the above processes. However, the timing of the minimum growth rate is found 6-9 months later than observed. The long-term decrease in CH4 growth rate over the period 1990 to 1995 is well captured and can be attributed to an increase in OH concentrations over this time period. Potential uncertainties in our modelled CH4 growth rate include emissions of CH4 from wetlands, biomass burning emissions of CH4 and other compounds, biogenic NMVOC and the sensitivity of OH to NMVOC emission changes. Two inventories are used for CH4 emissions from wetlands, ORCHIDEE and LPJ, to investigate the role of uncertainties in these emissions. Although the higher climate sensitivity of ORCHIDEE improves the simulated CH4 growth rate change after Pinatubo, none of the two inventories properly captures the observed CH4 variability in this period.

VizieR Online Data Catalog: RR Lyrae in SDSS Stripe 82 (Suveges+, 2012)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suveges, M.; Sesar, B.; Varadi, M.; Mowlavi, N.; Becker, A. C.; Ivezic, Z.; Beck, M.; Nienartowicz, K.; Rimoldini, L.; Dubath, P.; Bartholdi, P.; Eyer, L.

2013-05-01

We propose a robust principal component analysis framework for the exploitation of multiband photometric measurements in large surveys. Period search results are improved using the time-series of the first principal component due to its optimized signal-to-noise ratio. The presence of correlated excess variations in the multivariate time-series enables the detection of weaker variability. Furthermore, the direction of the largest variance differs for certain types of variable stars. This can be used as an efficient attribute for classification. The application of the method to a subsample of Sloan Digital Sky Survey Stripe 82 data yielded 132 high-amplitude delta Scuti variables. We also found 129 new RR Lyrae variables, complementary to the catalogue of Sesar et al., extending the halo area mapped by Stripe 82 RR Lyrae stars towards the Galactic bulge. The sample also comprises 25 multiperiodic or Blazhko RR Lyrae stars. (8 data files).

Short-term variability in biomarkers of bone metabolism in sheep.

PubMed

Sousa, Cristina P; de Azevedo, Jorge T; Reis, Rui L; Gomes, Manuela E; Dias, Isabel R

2014-01-01

Changes in bone remodeling during pathological states and during their treatment can be assessed noninvasively by measuring biomarkers of bone metabolism. Their application is limited, however, by the potential biological variability in the levels of these biomarkers over time. To determine the short-term variability in biomarkers of bone metabolism in adult sheep, the authors measured serum levels of alkaline phosphatase (ALP), bone-specific alkaline phosphatase (BALP), osteocalcin (OC), N-terminal propeptide of type-III procollagen (PIIINP), deoxypyridinoline (DPD), tartrate-resistant acid phosphatase (TRAP), calcium and phosphorus intermittently over a 12-week period. There were significant differences in mean ALP activity and in phosphorus concentrations over time, but all other biomarkers showed no significant short-term variability. The results suggest that biomarkers of bone metabolism in sheep, especially the bone resorption marker DPD and the bone formation marker BALP, can be used reliably to detect changes in bone cellular activity.

A comparison of transient vehicle performance using a fixed geometry, wastegated turbocharger and a variable geometry turbocharger

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lundstrom, R.R.; Gall, J.M.

1986-01-01

The use of an exhaust-driven boosting device can significantly improve the performance of a vehicle using a small displacement engine. One of the concerns relative to the performance of vehicles using these devices is ''turbo lag,'' or the period of time during which no boost is generated. This paper presents the results of designed experiments comparing the performance of a fixed geometry, wastegated turbocharger to a variable geometry turbocharger incorporating a low-loss bearing system. In addition, experimental tests are presented for the naturally aspirated engine in the same vehicle. The results of the experiments show improvements with the use ofmore » pressure boosting and that there are signifcant differences in the boosting devices tested; specifically, the use of a variable geometry turbocharger demonstrates significant reduction in the length of time required to reach boost and reduced acceleration times for the tests conducted.« less

Detrital events and hydroclimate variability in the Romanian Carpathians during the mid-to-late Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Longman, Jack; Ersek, Vasile; Veres, Daniel; Salzmann, Ulrich

2017-07-01

The Romanian Carpathians are located at the confluence of three major atmospheric pressure fields: the North Atlantic, the Mediterranean and the Siberian. Despite its importance for understanding past human impact and climate change, high-resolution palaeoenvironmental reconstructions of Holocene hydroclimate variability, and in particular records of extreme precipitation events in the area, are rare. Here we present a 7500-year-long high-resolution record of past climatic change and human impact recorded in a peatbog from the Southern Carpathians, integrating palynological, geochemical and sedimentological proxies. Natural climate fluctuations appear to be dominant until 4500 years before present (yr BP), followed by increasing importance of human impact. Sedimentological and geochemical analyses document regular minerogenic deposition within the bog, linked to periods of high precipitation. Such minerogenic depositional events began 4000 yr BP, with increased depositional rates during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), the Little Ice Age (LIA) and during periods of societal upheaval (e.g. the Roman conquest of Dacia). The timing of minerogenic events appears to indicate a teleconnection between major shifts in North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and hydroclimate variability in southeastern Europe, with increased minerogenic deposition correlating to low NAO index values. By linking the minerogenic deposition to precipitation variability, we state that this link persists throughout the mid-to-late Holocene.

Inter- and intra-individual variation in urinary biomarker concentrations over a 6-day sampling period. Part 1: metals.

PubMed

Smolders, Roel; Koch, Holger M; Moos, Rebecca K; Cocker, John; Jones, Kate; Warren, Nick; Levy, Len; Bevan, Ruth; Hays, Sean M; Aylward, Lesa L

2014-12-01

The aim of the current HBM-study is to further the understanding of the impact of inter- and intra-individual variability in HBM surveys as it may have implications for the design and interpretation of the study outcomes. As spot samples only provide a snapshot in time of the concentrations of chemicals in an individual, it remains unclear to what extent intra-individual variability plays a role in the overall variability of population-wide HBM surveys. The current paper describes the results of an intensive biomonitoring study, in which all individual urine samples of 8 individuals were collected over a 6-day sampling period (a total of 352 unique samples). By analyzing different metals (As, Cd, Mn, Ni) in each individual sample, inter- and intra-individual variability for these four metals could be determined, and the relationships between exposure, internal dose, and sampling protocol assessed. Although the range of biomarker values for different metals was well within the normal range reported in large-scale population surveys, large intra-individual differences over a 6-day period could also be observed. Typically, measured biomarker values span at least an order of magnitude within an individual, and more if specific exposure episodes could be identified. Fish consumption for example caused a twenty- to thirty-fold increase in urinary As-levels over a period of 2-6h. Intra-class correlation coefficients (ICC) were typically low for uncorrected biomarker values (between 0.104 and 0.460 for the 4 metals), but improved when corrected for creatinine or specific gravity (SG). The results show that even though urine is a preferred matrix for HBM studies, there are certain methodological issues that need to be taken into account in the interpretation of urinary biomarker data, related to the intrinsic variability of the urination process itself, the relationship between exposure events and biomarker quantification, and the timing of sampling. When setting up HBM-projects, this expected relationship between individual exposure episode and urinary biomarker concentration needs to be taken into account. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

Precipitation recycling as a mechanism for ecoclimatological stability through local and non-local interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dominguez, Francina

This study is the first to analyze the mechanisms that drive precipitation recycling variability at the daily to intraseasonal timescale. A new Dynamic Precipitation Recycling model is developed which, unlike previous models, includes the moisture storage term in the equation of conservation of atmospheric moisture. As shown using scaling analysis, the moisture storage term is non-negligible at small time scales, so the new model enables us to analyze precipitation recycling variability at shorter timescales than traditional models. The daily to intraseasonal analysis enables us to uncover key relationships between recycling and the moisture and energy fluxes. In the second phase of this work, a spatiotemporal analysis of daily precipitation recycling is performed over two regions of North America: the Midwestern United States, and the North American Monsoon System (NAMS) region. These regions were chosen because they present contrasting land-atmosphere interactions. Different physical mechanisms drive precipitation recycling in each region. In the Midwestern United States, evapotranspiration is not significantly affected by soil moisture anomalies, and there is a high recycling ratio during periods of reduced total precipitation. The reason is that, during periods of drier atmospheric conditions, transpiration will continue to provide moisture to the overlying atmosphere and contribute to total rainfall. Consequently, precipitation recycling variability in not driven by changes in evapotranspiration. Precipitable water, sensible heat and moisture fluxes are the main drivers of recycling variability in the Midwest. However, the drier soil moisture conditions over the NAMS region limit evapotranspiration, which will drive recycling variability. In this region, evapotranspiration becomes an important contribution to precipitation after Monsoon onset when total precipitation and evapotranspiration are highest. The precipitation recycling process in the NAMS region relocates moisture from regions of high evapotranspiration like the seasonally dry tropical forests of Mexico to drier regions downwind. During long monsoons, when soil moisture is abundant for a prolonged period of time, precipitation recycling significantly contributes to precipitation during periods of reduced total rainfall. In both the moisture abundant Midwestern region and the drier NAMS region, precipitation recycling plays an important role in maintaining a favorable hydroclimatological environment for vegetation.

Rater variables associated with ITER ratings.

PubMed

Paget, Michael; Wu, Caren; McIlwrick, Joann; Woloschuk, Wayne; Wright, Bruce; McLaughlin, Kevin

2013-10-01

Advocates of holistic assessment consider the ITER a more authentic way to assess performance. But this assessment format is subjective and, therefore, susceptible to rater bias. Here our objective was to study the association between rater variables and ITER ratings. In this observational study our participants were clerks at the University of Calgary and preceptors who completed online ITERs between February 2008 and July 2009. Our outcome variable was global rating on the ITER (rated 1-5), and we used a generalized estimating equation model to identify variables associated with this rating. Students were rated "above expected level" or "outstanding" on 66.4 % of 1050 online ITERs completed during the study period. Two rater variables attenuated ITER ratings: the log transformed time taken to complete the ITER [β = -0.06, 95 % confidence interval (-0.10, -0.02), p = 0.002], and the number of ITERs that a preceptor completed over the time period of the study [β = -0.008 (-0.02, -0.001), p = 0.02]. In this study we found evidence of leniency bias that resulted in two thirds of students being rated above expected level of performance. This leniency bias appeared to be attenuated by delay in ITER completion, and was also blunted in preceptors who rated more students. As all biases threaten the internal validity of the assessment process, further research is needed to confirm these and other sources of rater bias in ITER ratings, and to explore ways of limiting their impact.

Sea Surface Temperature and Seawater Oxygen Isotope Variability Recorded in a Madagascar Coral Record

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zinke, J.; Dullo, W. Chr; Eisenhauer, A.

2003-04-01

We analysed a 336 year coral oxygen isotope record off southwest Madagascar in the Mozambique Channel. Based on temporal variability of skeletal oxygen isotopes annual mean sea surface temperatures are reconstructed for the period from 1659 to 1995. Sr/Ca ratios were measured for selected windows with monthly resolution (1973 to 1995, 1863 to 1910, 1784 to 1809, 1688 to 1710) to validate the SST reconstructions derived from oxygen isotopes. The coral proxy data were validated against gridded SST data sets. The coral oxygen isotope record is coherent with Kaplan-SST and GISST2.3b on an interdecadal frequency of 17 years, which is the most prominent frequency band observed in this region. The Sr/Ca-SST agree well with SST observations in the validation period (1863 to 1910), whereas the d18O derived SST show largest discrepencies during this time interval. By taking into account the SST values derived from coral Sr/Ca, we were able to reconstruct d18O seawater variability. This indicates that d18O seawater variations contributed significantly to interannual and interdecadal variations in coral d18O. We propose that the local surface-ocean evaporation-precipitation balance and remote forcing by ENSO via South Equatorial Current and/or Indonesian throughflow variability may contribute to observed d18O variability. Our results indicate that coral d18O may be used to reconstruct temporal variations in the fresh water balance within the Indian Ocean on interannual to interdecadal time scales.

The clinical evaluation of International Normalized Ratio variability and control in conventional oral anticoagulant administration by use of the variance growth rate.

PubMed

Ibrahim, S; Jespersen, J; Poller, L

2013-08-01

The time in target International Normalized Ratio (INR) range (TIR) is used to assess the control and intensity of oral anticoagulation, but it does not measure variation in the INR. The value of assessing INR variability by use of the variance growth rate (VGR) as a predictor of events was investigated in patients treated with warfarin. Three different methods of VGR determination (A, B1, and B2) together with the TIR were studied. Method A measures both INR variability and control, but methods B1 and B2 measure variability only. The VGR and TIR were determined over three time periods: overall follow-up to an event, and 6 months and 3 months before an event. Six hundred and sixty-one control patients were matched to 158 cases (bleeding, thromboembolism, or death). With all VGR methods, the risk of an event was greater in unstable patients at 6 months before an event than in stable patients. Method A demonstrated the greatest risk 3 months before an event in the unstable VGR group as compared with the stable group (odds ratio 3.3, 95% confidence interval 1.9-5.7, P < 0.005). The risk of an event was 1.9 times greater in patients with a low TIR (< 39%) than in those with a high TIR (> 80%) in the 3-month period (P = 0.02). Risk of bleeding was significantly greater in the 3-month period in patients with unstable VGR, with the greatest risk found with method B2 (P < 0.01). Patients with unstable anticoagulation have a significantly increased risk of 'clinical events' at 3 and 6 months before an event. The VGR can be incorporated into computer-dosage programs, and may offer additional safety when oral anticoagulation is monitored. © 2013 International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis.

Measuring the rotation periods of 4-10 Myr T-Tauri stars in the Orion OB1 association

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karim, Md Tanveer; Stassun, Keivan; Briceno, Cesar; Vivas, Kathy; Raetz, Stefanie; Calvet, Nuria; Mateu, Cecilia; Downes, Juan Jose; Hernandez, Jesus; Neuhäuser, Ralph; Mugrauer, Markus; Takahashi, Hidenori; Tachihara, Kengo; Chini, Rolf; YETI

2016-01-01

Most existing studies of young stellar populations have focused on the youngest (< 2-3 Myr) T-Tauri stars, which are usually associated with their natal gas and hence easier to identify. In contrast, older T-Tauri stars (~ 4-10 Myr), being more difficult to find, have been less studied, even though they hold key insight to understanding evolution of lower-mass (0.1-2 M⊙) stars and of protoplanetary discs. We present a study of photometric variability of 1974 confirmed 4-10 Myr old T-Tauri stars in the Orion OB1 association using optical time-series from three different surveys: the Centro de Investigaciones de Astronomía-Quest Equatorial Survey Team (CIDA-QUEST), the Young Exoplanet Transit Initiative (YETI) and from a Kitt Peak National Observatory (KPNO) campaign. We investigated stellar rotation periods according to the type of stars (Classical or Weak-lined T-Tauri stars) and their locations, to look for population-wide trends. We detected 563 periodic variables and 1411 non-periodic variables by investigating the light curves of these stars. We find that ~ 30% of Weak-line T-Tauri stars (WTTS) and ~ 20% of Classical T-Tauri stars (CTTS) are periodic. Though we did not find any noticeable difference in rotation period between CTTS and WTTS, our study does show a change in the overall rotation periods of stars 4-10 Myr old, consistent with predictions of angular momentum evolution models, an important constraint for theoretical models for an age range for which no similar data existed.

Ionosphere variability at mid latitudes during sudden stratosphere warmings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pedatella, N. M.; Maute, A. I.; Maruyama, N.

2015-12-01

Variability of the mid latitude ionosphere and thermosphere during the 2009 and 2013 sudden stratosphere warmings (SSWs) is investigated in the present study using a combination of Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC) observations and model simulations. The simulations are performed using the Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIME-GCM) and Ionosphere Plasmasphere Electrodynamics (IPE) model. Both the COSMIC observations and TIME-GCM simulations reveal perturbations in the F-region peak height (hmF2) at Southern Hemisphere mid latitudes during SSW time periods. The perturbations are ~20-30 km, which corresponds to 10-20% variability in hmF2. The TIME-GCM simulations and COSMIC observations of the hmF2 variability are in overall good agreement, and the simulations can thus be used to understand the physical processes responsible for the hmF2 variability. The simulation results demonstrate that the mid lattiude hmF2 variability is primarily driven by the propagation of the migrating semidiurnal lunar tide (M2) into the thermosphere where it modulates the field aligned neutrals winds, which in-turn raise and lower the F-region peak height. The importance of the thermosphere neutral winds on generating the ionosphere variability at mid latitudes during SSWs is supported by IPE simulations performed both with and without the neutral wind variability. Though there are subtle differences, the consistency of the behavior between the 2009 and 2013 SSWs suggests that variability in the Southern Hemisphere mid latitude ionosphere and thermosphere is a consistent feature of the SSW impact on the upper atmosphere.

Temporal clustering of floods in Germany: Do flood-rich and flood-poor periods exist?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merz, Bruno; Nguyen, Viet Dung; Vorogushyn, Sergiy

2016-10-01

The repeated occurrence of exceptional floods within a few years, such as the Rhine floods in 1993 and 1995 and the Elbe and Danube floods in 2002 and 2013, suggests that floods in Central Europe may be organized in flood-rich and flood-poor periods. This hypothesis is studied by testing the significance of temporal clustering in flood occurrence (peak-over-threshold) time series for 68 catchments across Germany for the period 1932-2005. To assess the robustness of the results, different methods are used: Firstly, the index of dispersion, which quantifies the departure from a homogeneous Poisson process, is investigated. Further, the time-variation of the flood occurrence rate is derived by non-parametric kernel implementation and the significance of clustering is evaluated via parametric and non-parametric tests. Although the methods give consistent overall results, the specific results differ considerably. Hence, we recommend applying different methods when investigating flood clustering. For flood estimation and risk management, it is of relevance to understand whether clustering changes with flood severity and time scale. To this end, clustering is assessed for different thresholds and time scales. It is found that the majority of catchments show temporal clustering at the 5% significance level for low thresholds and time scales of one to a few years. However, clustering decreases substantially with increasing threshold and time scale. We hypothesize that flood clustering in Germany is mainly caused by catchment memory effects along with intra- to inter-annual climate variability, and that decadal climate variability plays a minor role.

Dalfampridine Effects Beyond Walking Speed in Multiple Sclerosis

PubMed Central

Fjeldstad, Cecilie; Suárez, Gustavo; Klingler, Michael; Henney, Herbert R.; Rabinowicz, Adrian L.

2015-01-01

Background: Dalfampridine extended release (ER) improves walking in people with multiple sclerosis (MS), as demonstrated by walking speed improvement. This exploratory study evaluated treatment effects of dalfampridine-ER on gait, balance, and walking through treatment withdrawal and reinitiation. Methods: Dalfampridine-ER responders, based on Timed 25-Foot Walk (T25FW) assessment before study entry, were included in this open-label, three-period, single-center study. Period 1: on-drug evaluations performed at screening and 1 week after screening. Period 2: dalfampridine-ER withdrawal and off-drug evaluations (days 5 and 11). Period 3: dalfampridine-ER reinitiation/final on-drug evaluation (day 15). Primary outcome variables: NeuroCom composite scores for gait and balance; balance was evaluated if gait changes were significant. Secondary variables: individual NeuroCom scores, walking speed (T25FW) and distance (2-Minute Walk Test [2MWT]), and balance (Berg Balance Scale [BBS]). Results: All 20 patients completed the study: mean age, 53.1 years; mean MS duration, 11.3 years; mean time taking dalfampridine-ER, 315.3 days. NeuroCom gait composite scores worsened during period 2 relative to period 1 and improved during period 3; the mean ± SD difference in gait composite scores on drug was 4.03 ± 1.51 points (P = .015). Balance composite scores did not change significantly. Improvements were observed for off-drug versus on-drug for T25FW (0.36 ft/sec, P < .001), 2MWT (25.4 ft, P = .006), and BBS (1.7 points, P = .003). Safety profile was consistent with previous studies. Conclusions: Significant improvements in gait, walking speed, distance, and balance were demonstrated by dalfampridine-ER reinitiation after a 10-day withdrawal period. PMID:26664333

Modeling climate effects on hip fracture rate by the multivariate GARCH model in Montreal region, Canada.

PubMed

Modarres, Reza; Ouarda, Taha B M J; Vanasse, Alain; Orzanco, Maria Gabriela; Gosselin, Pierre

2014-07-01

Changes in extreme meteorological variables and the demographic shift towards an older population have made it important to investigate the association of climate variables and hip fracture by advanced methods in order to determine the climate variables that most affect hip fracture incidence. The nonlinear autoregressive moving average with exogenous variable-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARMAX-GARCH) and multivariate GARCH (MGARCH) time series approaches were applied to investigate the nonlinear association between hip fracture rate in female and male patients aged 40-74 and 75+ years and climate variables in the period of 1993-2004, in Montreal, Canada. The models describe 50-56% of daily variation in hip fracture rate and identify snow depth, air temperature, day length and air pressure as the influencing variables on the time-varying mean and variance of the hip fracture rate. The conditional covariance between climate variables and hip fracture rate is increasing exponentially, showing that the effect of climate variables on hip fracture rate is most acute when rates are high and climate conditions are at their worst. In Montreal, climate variables, particularly snow depth and air temperature, appear to be important predictors of hip fracture incidence. The association of climate variables and hip fracture does not seem to change linearly with time, but increases exponentially under harsh climate conditions. The results of this study can be used to provide an adaptive climate-related public health program and ti guide allocation of services for avoiding hip fracture risk.

Modeling climate effects on hip fracture rate by the multivariate GARCH model in Montreal region, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Modarres, Reza; Ouarda, Taha B. M. J.; Vanasse, Alain; Orzanco, Maria Gabriela; Gosselin, Pierre

2014-07-01

Changes in extreme meteorological variables and the demographic shift towards an older population have made it important to investigate the association of climate variables and hip fracture by advanced methods in order to determine the climate variables that most affect hip fracture incidence. The nonlinear autoregressive moving average with exogenous variable-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARMA X-GARCH) and multivariate GARCH (MGARCH) time series approaches were applied to investigate the nonlinear association between hip fracture rate in female and male patients aged 40-74 and 75+ years and climate variables in the period of 1993-2004, in Montreal, Canada. The models describe 50-56 % of daily variation in hip fracture rate and identify snow depth, air temperature, day length and air pressure as the influencing variables on the time-varying mean and variance of the hip fracture rate. The conditional covariance between climate variables and hip fracture rate is increasing exponentially, showing that the effect of climate variables on hip fracture rate is most acute when rates are high and climate conditions are at their worst. In Montreal, climate variables, particularly snow depth and air temperature, appear to be important predictors of hip fracture incidence. The association of climate variables and hip fracture does not seem to change linearly with time, but increases exponentially under harsh climate conditions. The results of this study can be used to provide an adaptive climate-related public health program and ti guide allocation of services for avoiding hip fracture risk.

On quasi-periodic variations of low-energy cosmic rays observed near earth.

PubMed

Kudela, Karel; Langer, Ronald

2015-06-01

Cosmic ray (CR) may partially, especially at high altitudes, contribute to the dosimetric characteristics. Along with irregular CR variations as Forbush decreases and solar particle events are, the quasi-periodic variations may be of some relevance too. A very short review (with references to original papers) of the present knowledge of various types of such variations is presented, namely (i) diurnal wave, (ii) ~27 d variability due to the solar rotation, (iii) Rieger-type periodicity, and (iv) quasi-biennial oscillations as well as waves on longer time scales related to solar activity and to polarity of magnetic field of the Sun. Variability is illustrated in measurements of secondary CR on the ground including the high-altitude observations at Lomnický štít. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

ENSO activity during the last climate cycle using Individual Foraminifera Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leduc, G.; Vidal, L.; Thirumalai, K.

2017-12-01

The El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the principal mode of interannual climate variability and affects key climate parameters such as low-latitude rainfall variability. Recent climate modeling experiments tend to suggest an increase in the frequency of both El Niño and La Niña events in the future, but these results remain model-dependent and require to be validated by paleodata-model comparisons. Fossil corals indicate that the ENSO variance during the 20th century is particularly high as compared to other time periods of the Holocene. Beyond the Holocene, however, little is known on past ENSO changes, which makes difficult to test paleoclimate model simulations that are used to study the ENSO sensitivity to various types of forcings. We have expanded an Individual Foraminifera Analysis (IFA) dataset using the thermocline-dwelling N. dutertrei on a marine core collected in the Panama Basin (Leduc et al., 2009), that has proven to be a skillful way to reconstruct the ENSO (Thirumalai et al., 2013). Our new IFA dataset comprehensively covers the Holocene, allowing to verify how the IFA method compares with ENSO reconstructions using corals. The dataset then extends back in time to Marine Isotope Stage 6 (MIS), with a special focus the last deglaciation and Termination II (MIS5/6) time windows, as well as key time periods to tests the sensitivity of ENSO to ice volume and orbital parameters. The new dataset confirms variable ENSO activity during the Holocene and weaker activity during LGM than during the Holocene, as a recent isotope-enabled climate model simulations of the LGM suggests (Zhu et al., 2017). Such pattern is reproduced for the Termination II. Leduc, G., L. Vidal, O. Cartapanis, and E. Bard (2009), Modes of eastern equatorial Pacific thermocline variability: Implications for ENSO dynamics over the last glacial period, Paleoceanography, 24, PA3202, doi:10.1029/2008PA001701. Thirumalai, K., J. W. Partin, C. S. Jackson, and T. M. Quinn (2013), Statistical constraints on El Niño Southern Oscillation reconstructions using individual foraminifera: A sensitivity analysis, Paleoceanography, 28, 401-412, doi:10.1002/palo.20037. Zhu, J., et al. (2017), Reduced ENSO variability at the LGM revealed by an isotope-enabled Earth system model, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 6984-6992, doi:10.1002/2017GL073406.

Multi-period natural gas market modeling Applications, stochastic extensions and solution approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Egging, Rudolf Gerardus

This dissertation develops deterministic and stochastic multi-period mixed complementarity problems (MCP) for the global natural gas market, as well as solution approaches for large-scale stochastic MCP. The deterministic model is unique in the combination of the level of detail of the actors in the natural gas markets and the transport options, the detailed regional and global coverage, the multi-period approach with endogenous capacity expansions for transportation and storage infrastructure, the seasonal variation in demand and the representation of market power according to Nash-Cournot theory. The model is applied to several scenarios for the natural gas market that cover the formation of a cartel by the members of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum, a low availability of unconventional gas in the United States, and cost reductions in long-distance gas transportation. 1 The results provide insights in how different regions are affected by various developments, in terms of production, consumption, traded volumes, prices and profits of market participants. The stochastic MCP is developed and applied to a global natural gas market problem with four scenarios for a time horizon until 2050 with nineteen regions and containing 78,768 variables. The scenarios vary in the possibility of a gas market cartel formation and varying depletion rates of gas reserves in the major gas importing regions. Outcomes for hedging decisions of market participants show some significant shifts in the timing and location of infrastructure investments, thereby affecting local market situations. A first application of Benders decomposition (BD) is presented to solve a large-scale stochastic MCP for the global gas market with many hundreds of first-stage capacity expansion variables and market players exerting various levels of market power. The largest problem solved successfully using BD contained 47,373 variables of which 763 first-stage variables, however using BD did not result in shorter solution times relative to solving the extensive-forms. Larger problems, up to 117,481 variables, were solved in extensive-form, but not when applying BD due to numerical issues. It is discussed how BD could significantly reduce the solution time of large-scale stochastic models, but various challenges remain and more research is needed to assess the potential of Benders decomposition for solving large-scale stochastic MCP. 1 www.gecforum.org

Atmospheric mechanisms governing the spatial and temporal variability of phenological phases in central Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scheifinger, Helfried; Menzel, Annette; Koch, Elisabeth; Peter, Christian; Ahas, Rein

2002-11-01

A data set of 17 phenological phases from Germany, Austria, Switzerland and Slovenia spanning the time period from 1951 to 1998 has been made available for analysis together with a gridded temperature data set (1° × 1° grid) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index time series. The disturbances of the westerlies constitute the main atmospheric source for the temporal variability of phenological events in Europe. The trend, the standard deviation and the discontinuity of the phenological time series at the end of the 1980s can, to a great extent, be explained by the NAO. A number of factors modulate the influence of the NAO in time and space. The seasonal northward shift of the westerlies overlaps with the sequence of phenological spring phases, thereby gradually reducing its influence on the temporal variability of phenological events with progression of spring (temporal loss of influence). This temporal process is reflected by a pronounced decrease in trend and standard deviation values and common variability with the NAO with increasing year-day. The reduced influence of the NAO with increasing distance from the Atlantic coast is not only apparent in studies based on the data set of the International Phenological Gardens, but also in the data set of this study with a smaller spatial extent (large-scale loss of influence). The common variance between phenological and NAO time series displays a discontinuous drop from the European Atlantic coast towards the Alps. On a local and regional scale, mountainous terrain reduces the influence of the large-scale atmospheric flow from the Atlantic via a proposed decoupling mechanism. Valleys in mountainous terrain have the inclination to harbour temperature inversions over extended periods of time during the cold season, which isolate the valley climate from the large-scale atmospheric flow at higher altitudes. Most phenological stations reside at valley bottoms and are thus largely decoupled in their temporal variability from the influence of the westerly flow regime (local-scale loss of influence). This study corroborates an increasing number of similar investigations that find that vegetation does react in a sensitive way to variations of its atmospheric environment across various temporal and spatial scales.

Extraordinary Activity in the BL Lac Object OJ 287

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hughes, P. A.; Aller, H. D.; Aller, M. F.

We present the results of a wavelet transform analysis of data for the BL Lac object OJ 287 acquired as part of the UMRAO variability program. We find clear evidence for a persistent modulation of the total flux and polarization with period 1.66 years, and for another signal that dominates activity in the 1980s with period 1.12 years. It appears that the longer time scale periodicity is associated with an otherwise quiescent jet, and the shorter time scale activity is associated with the passage of a shock, or shocks. The periodic behavior in polarization exhibits excursions in U which correspond to a direction 45circ from the VLBI jet axis. This behavior suggests a small amplitude, cyclic variation in the flow direction in that part of the flow that dominates cm-wavelength emission.

The U.S. health production function: evidence from 2001 to 2009.

PubMed

Tseng, Hui-Kuan; Olsen, Reed

2016-03-01

This study estimates the impact of the 2007 financial crisis upon U.S. health as measured by age adjusted death rates. OLS regression results suggest that the average death rate was lower in the post-crisis period than the pre-crisis period. The majority of the average decline in the death rate was a result of the time period and not a result of changes in the values of the underlying explanatory variables. We continue to find this result even adding state fixed effects. Contrary to other research, we find that the unemployment rate has no statistically significant impact on death rates either for the U.S. as a whole or for any states individually. Rather, the impact of the financial crisis is felt via year fixed effects that increased over time during the post-crisis period.

Time effect of erosion by solid particle impingement on ductile materials

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rao, P. V.; Buckley, D. H.

1983-01-01

Erosion and morphological studies of several metals and alloys eroded by normal impingement jets of spherical glass beads and angular crushed-glass erodent particles were conducted. Erosion morphology (the width, depth, and width-depth ratio of the pit) was studied in order to fully investigate the effect of time on erosion rate. The eroded surfaces were studied with a scanning electron microscope, and surface profiles were measured with a profilometer. A large amount of experimental data reported in the literature was also analyzed in order to understand the effect of variables such as the type of device, the erodent particle size and shape, the impact velocity, and the abrasive charge on erosion-rate-versus-time curves. In the present experiments the pit-width-versus-time or pit-depth-versus-time curves were similar to erosion-versus-time curves for glass-bead impingement. The pit-depth-rate-versus-time curves were similar to erosion-rate-versus-time curves for crushed-glass impingement. Analysis of experimental data with two forms of glass resulted in four types of erosion-rate-versus-time curves: (1) incubation, acceleration, and steady-state periods (type I), (2) incubation, acceleration, deceleration, and steady-state periods (type III), (3) incubation, acceleration, peak rate, and deceleration periods (type IV), and (4) incubation, acceleration, steady-state, and deceleration periods (type V).

The relationship of oocyte diameter and incubation temperature to incubation time in temperate freshwater fish species.

PubMed

Teletchea, F; Gardeur, J-N; Kamler, E; Fontaine, P

2009-02-01

Based on the analysis of six egg variables and incubation temperature of 65 temperate freshwater fish species, the possible relationships between oocyte diameter, incubation time and incubation temperature were reassessed and compared to the results obtained from marine fishes. Most freshwater species have eggs (mean +/-s.d. 2.19 +/- 1.52 mm) larger than marine species, that are chiefly demersal and develop stuck to various substrata, such as plants or rocks. A strong negative relationship was found between incubation time (t, days) and incubation temperature (T, degrees C): t = 186.23e(-0.197T) (r(2)= 0.87). A strong dependence of incubation time on oocyte diameter (Ø, mm) and incubation temperature was also found and was defined as: log(10)t= 3.002 + 0.599 log(10)Ø - 1.91 log(10) (T + 2), which explained 92% of the variance of the data set. Five major groups of species were defined based on the principal component analysis (PCA) of four quantitative variables. There were two distinct groups of salmonids, displaying demersal and non-adhesive eggs with a long incubation time at low temperature, the eggs of which required a high number of degree-days. There was a large group of species possessing small, mostly demersal and adhesive eggs developing at high temperature during a short period of time, and requiring a low number of degree-days. Between these two extremes, there was a fourth group displaying intermediate values and a fifth group including three species with large, adhesive and demersal eggs incubating at high temperatures during a short period of time. The burbot Lota lota displayed an unusual combination of variables compared to the remaining species in the data set.

The impact of water loading on postglacial decay times in Hudson Bay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Holly Kyeore; Gomez, Natalya

2018-05-01

Ongoing glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) due to surface loading (ice and water) variations during the last glacial cycle has been contributing to sea-level changes globally throughout the Holocene, especially in regions like Canada that were heavily glaciated during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). The spatial and temporal distribution of GIA, as manifested in relative sea-level (RSL) change, are sensitive to the ice history and the rheological structure of the solid Earth, both of which are uncertain. It has been shown that RSL curves near the center of previously glaciated regions with no ongoing surface loading follow an exponential-like form, with the postglacial decay times associated with that form having a weak sensitivity to the details of the ice loading history. Postglacial decay time estimates thus provide a powerful datum for constraining the Earth's viscous structure and improving GIA predictions. We explore spatial patterns of postglacial decay time predictions in Hudson Bay by decomposing numerically modeled RSL changes into contributions from water and ice loading effects, and computing their relative impact on the decay times. We demonstrate that ice loading can contribute a strong geographic trend on the decay time estimates if the time window used to compute decay times includes periods that are temporally close to (i.e. contemporaneous with, or soon after) periods of active loading. This variability can be avoided by choosing a suitable starting point for the decay time window. However, more surprisingly, we show that across any adopted time window, water loading effects associated with inundation into, and postglacial flux out of, Hudson Bay and James Bay will impart significant geographic variability onto decay time estimates. We emphasize this issue by considering both maps of predicted decay times across the region and site-specific estimates, and we conclude that variability in observed decay times (whether based on existing or future data sets) may reflect this water loading signal.

A photometric study of Be stars located in the seismology fields of COROT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gutiérrez-Soto, J.; Fabregat, J.; Suso, J.; Lanzara, M.; Garrido, R.; Hubert, A.-M.; Floquet, M.

2007-12-01

Context: In preparation for the COROT mission, an exhaustive photometric study of Be stars located in the seismology fields of the mission has been performed. The very precise and long-time-spanned photometric observations gathered by the COROT satellite will give important clues on the origin of the Be phenomenon. Aims: The aim of this work is to find short-period variable Be stars located in the seismology fields of COROT, and to study and characterise their pulsational properties. Methods: Light curves obtained at the Observatorio de Sierra Nevada, together with data from Hipparcos and ASAS-3 for a total of 84 Be stars, were analysed in order to search for short-term variations. We applied standard Fourier techniques and non-linear least-square fitting to the time series. Results: We found 7 multiperiodic, 21 mono-periodic and 26 non-variable Be stars. Short-term variability was detected in 74% of early-type Be stars and in 31% of mid- to late-type Be stars. We show that non-radial pulsations are more frequent among Be stars than in slow-rotating B stars of the same spectral range. Appendix A is only available in electronic form at http://www.aanda.org

Space Telescope and Optical Reverberation Mapping Project. VI. Reverberating Disk Models for NGS 5548

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Starkey, D.; Gehrels, Cornelis; Horne, Keith; Fausnaugh, M. M.; Peterson, B. M.; Bentz, M. C.; Kochanek, C. S.; Denney, K. D.; Edelson, R.; Goad, M. R.;

Effects of baseline conditions on the simulated hydrologic response to projected climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Koczot, Kathryn M.; Markstrom, Steven L.; Hay, Lauren E.

2011-01-01

Changes in temperature and precipitation projected from five general circulation models, using one late-twentieth-century and three twenty-first-century emission scenarios, were downscaled to three different baseline conditions. Baseline conditions are periods of measured temperature and precipitation data selected to represent twentieth-century climate. The hydrologic effects of the climate projections are evaluated using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), which is a watershed hydrology simulation model. The Almanor Catchment in the North Fork of the Feather River basin, California, is used as a case study. Differences and similarities between PRMS simulations of hydrologic components (i.e., snowpack formation and melt, evapotranspiration, and streamflow) are examined, and results indicate that the selection of a specific time period used for baseline conditions has a substantial effect on some, but not all, hydrologic variables. This effect seems to be amplified in hydrologic variables, which accumulate over time, such as soil-moisture content. Results also indicate that uncertainty related to the selection of baseline conditions should be evaluated using a range of different baseline conditions. This is particularly important for studies in basins with highly variable climate, such as the Almanor Catchment.

Annual precipitation in the Yellowstone National Park region since AD 1173

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gray, Stephen T.; Graumlich, Lisa J.; Betancourt, Julio L.

2007-01-01

Cores and cross sections from 133 limber pine (Pinus flexilis James) and Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirbel) Franco) at four sites were used to estimate annual (July to June) precipitation in the Yellowstone National Park region for the period from AD 1173 to 1998. Examination of the long-term record shows that the early 20th century was markedly wet compared to the previous 700 yr. Extreme wet and dry years within the instrumental period fall within the range of past variability, and the magnitude of the worst-case droughts of the 20th century (AD 1930s and 1950s) was likely equaled or exceeded on numerous occasions before AD 1900. Spectral analysis showed significant decadal to multidecadal precipitation variability. At times this lower frequency variability produces strong regime-like behavior in regional precipitation, with the potential for rapid, high-amplitude switching between predominately wet and predominately dry conditions. Over multiple time scales, strong Yellowstone region precipitation anomalies were almost always associated with spatially extensive events spanning various combinations of the central and southern U.S. Rockies, the northern U.S.-Southern Canadian Rockies and the Pacific Northwest.

Annual precipitation in the Yellowstone National Park region since AD 1173

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gray, S.T.; Graumlich, L.J.; Betancourt, J.L.

2007-01-01

Cores and cross sections from 133 limber pine (Pinus flexilis James) and Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirbel) Franco) at four sites were used to estimate annual (July to June) precipitation in the Yellowstone National Park region for the period from AD 1173 to 1998. Examination of the long-term record shows that the early 20th century was markedly wet compared to the previous 700??yr. Extreme wet and dry years within the instrumental period fall within the range of past variability, and the magnitude of the worst-case droughts of the 20th century (AD 1930s and 1950s) was likely equaled or exceeded on numerous occasions before AD 1900. Spectral analysis showed significant decadal to multidecadal precipitation variability. At times this lower frequency variability produces strong regime-like behavior in regional precipitation, with the potential for rapid, high-amplitude switching between predominately wet and predominately dry conditions. Over multiple time scales, strong Yellowstone region precipitation anomalies were almost always associated with spatially extensive events spanning various combinations of the central and southern U.S. Rockies, the northern U.S.-Southern Canadian Rockies and the Pacific Northwest. ?? 2007 University of Washington.

Temporal uncertainty analysis of human errors based on interrelationships among multiple factors: a case of Minuteman III missile accident.

PubMed

Rong, Hao; Tian, Jin; Zhao, Tingdi

2016-01-01

In traditional approaches of human reliability assessment (HRA), the definition of the error producing conditions (EPCs) and the supporting guidance are such that some of the conditions (especially organizational or managerial conditions) can hardly be included, and thus the analysis is burdened with incomprehensiveness without reflecting the temporal trend of human reliability. A method based on system dynamics (SD), which highlights interrelationships among technical and organizational aspects that may contribute to human errors, is presented to facilitate quantitatively estimating the human error probability (HEP) and its related variables changing over time in a long period. Taking the Minuteman III missile accident in 2008 as a case, the proposed HRA method is applied to assess HEP during missile operations over 50 years by analyzing the interactions among the variables involved in human-related risks; also the critical factors are determined in terms of impact that the variables have on risks in different time periods. It is indicated that both technical and organizational aspects should be focused on to minimize human errors in a long run. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

The demand for distilled spirits: an empirical investigation.

PubMed

McCornac, D C; Filante, R W

1984-03-01

Economic and social factors that explain variations in the consumption of distilled spirits among political jurisdictions are examined. Particular emphasis is placed on the economic roles of price and the unemployment rate. Using multivariate-analysis regression, equations are estimated for three separate time periods of 1970-1975. In addition, a pooled cross-sectional time-series analysis is undertaken for the entire time period. The dependent variable is the apparent per capita consumption of distilled spirits. The independent variables include price, availability and socioeconomic factors that determine consumption patterns. The results indicate that the price elasticity of demand for distilled spirits inelastic, and implies that a 1% change in price will result in a less than 1% change in the amount purchased, everything else being equal. A rise in price will increase total revenue. Thus, a tax increase on the commodity will generate an increase in tax revenue. The unemployment rate is shown to have a significant impact on the consumption of distilled spirits. The results suggest that further study into the relationship between unemployment and the consumption of distilled spirits is desirable.

Correlated bursts and the role of memory range

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jo, Hang-Hyun; Perotti, Juan I.; Kaski, Kimmo; Kertész, János

2015-08-01

Inhomogeneous temporal processes in natural and social phenomena have been described by bursts that are rapidly occurring events within short time periods alternating with long periods of low activity. In addition to the analysis of heavy-tailed interevent time distributions, higher-order correlations between interevent times, called correlated bursts, have been studied only recently. As the underlying mechanism behind such correlated bursts is far from being fully understood, we devise a simple model for correlated bursts using a self-exciting point process with a variable range of memory. Whether a new event occurs is stochastically determined by a memory function that is the sum of decaying memories of past events. In order to incorporate the noise and/or limited memory capacity of systems, we apply two memory loss mechanisms: a fixed number or a variable number of memories. By analysis and numerical simulations, we find that too much memory effect may lead to a Poissonian process, implying that there exists an intermediate range of memory effect to generate correlated bursts comparable to empirical findings. Our conclusions provide a deeper understanding of how long-range memory affects correlated bursts.

Contrasting scaling properties of interglacial and glacial climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ditlevsen, Peter; Shao, Zhi-Gang

2017-04-01

Understanding natural climate variability is essential for assessments of climate change. This is reflected in the scaling properties of climate records. The scaling exponents of the interglacial and the glacial climates are fundamentally different. The Holocene record is monofractal, with a scaling exponent H˜0.7. On the contrary, the glacial record is multifractal, with a significantly higher scaling exponent H˜1.2, indicating a longer persistence time and stronger nonlinearities in the glacial climate. The glacial climate is dominated by the strong multi-millennial Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events influencing the long-time correlation. However, by separately analysing the last glacial maximum lacking DO events, here we find the same scaling for that period as for the full glacial period. The unbroken scaling thus indicates that the DO events are part of the natural variability and not externally triggered. At glacial time scales, there is a scale break to a trivial scaling, contrasting the DO events from the similarly saw-tooth-shaped glacial cycles. Ref: Zhi-Gang Shao and Peter Ditlevsen, Nature Comm. 7, 10951, 2016

Characteristics of aggregation of daily rainfall in a middle-latitudes region during a climate variability in annual rainfall amount

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucero, Omar A.; Rozas, Daniel

Climate variability in annual rainfall occurs because the aggregation of daily rainfall changes. A topic open to debate is whether that change takes place because rainfall becomes more intense, or because it rains more often, or a combination of both. The answer to this question is of interest for water resources planning, hydrometeorological design, and agricultural management. Change in the number of rainy days can cause major disruptions in hydrological and ecological systems, with important economic and social effects. Furthermore, the characteristics of daily rainfall aggregation in ongoing climate variability provide a reference to evaluate the capability of GCM to simulate changes in the hydrologic cycle. In this research, we analyze changes in the aggregation of daily rainfall producing a climate positive trend in annual rainfall in central Argentina, in the southern middle-latitudes. This state-of-the-art agricultural region has a semiarid climate with dry and wet seasons. Weather effects in the region influence world-market prices of several crops. Results indicate that the strong positive trend in seasonal and annual rainfall amount is produced by an increase in number of rainy days. This increase takes place in the 3-month periods January-March (summer) and April-June (autumn). These are also the 3-month periods showing a positive trend in the mean of annual rainfall. The mean of the distribution of annual number of rainy day (ANRD) increased in 50% in a 36-year span (starting at 44 days/year). No statistically significant indications on time changes in the probability distribution of daily rainfall amount were found. Non-periodic fluctuations in the time series of annual rainfall were analyzed using an integral wavelet transform. Fluctuations with a time scale of about 10 and 20 years construct the trend in annual rainfall amount. These types of non-periodic fluctuations have been observed in other regions of the world. This suggests that results of this research could have further geographical validity.

Serendipitous discovery of a dwarf Nova in the Kepler field near the G dwarf KIC 5438845

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brown, Alexander; Ayres, Thomas R.; Neff, James E.

2015-02-01

The Kepler satellite provides a unique window into stellar temporal variability by observing a wide variety of stars with multi-year, near-continuous, high precision, optical photometric time series. While most Kepler targets are faint stars with poorly known physical properties, many unexpected discoveries should result from a long photometric survey of such a large area of sky. During our Kepler Guest Observer programs that monitored late-type stars for starspot and flaring variability, we discovered a previously unknown dwarf nova that lies within a few arcseconds of the mid-G dwarf star KIC 5438845. This dwarf nova underwent nine outbursts over a 4more » year time span. The two largest outbursts lasted ∼17–18 days and show strong modulations with a 110.8 minute period and a declining amplitude during the outburst decay phase. These properties are characteristic of an SU UMa-type cataclysmic variable. By analogy with other dwarf nova light curves, we associate the 110.8 minute (1.847 hr) period with the superhump period, close to but slightly longer than the orbital period of the binary. No precursor outbursts are seen before the super-outbursts and the overall super-outburst morphology corresponds to Osaki and Meyer “Case B” outbursts, which are initiated when the outer edge of the disk reaches the tidal truncation radius. “Case B” outbursts are rare within the Kepler light curves of dwarf novae. The dwarf nova is undergoing relatively slow mass transfer, as evidenced by the long intervals between outbursts, but the mass transfer rate appears to be steady, because the smaller “normal” outbursts show a strong correlation between the integrated outburst energy and the elapsed time since the previous outburst. At super-outburst maximum the system was at V ∼ 18, but in quiescence it is fainter than V ∼ 22, which will make any detailed quiescent follow-up of this system difficult.« less

Chaotic behaviour of the Rossler model and its analysis by using bifurcations of limit cycles and chaotic attractors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ibrahim, K. M.; Jamal, R. K.; Ali, F. H.

2018-05-01

The behaviour of certain dynamical nonlinear systems are described in term as chaos, i.e., systems’ variables change with the time, displaying very sensitivity to initial conditions of chaotic dynamics. In this paper, we study archetype systems of ordinary differential equations in two-dimensional phase spaces of the Rössler model. A system displays continuous time chaos and is explained by three coupled nonlinear differential equations. We study its characteristics and determine the control parameters that lead to different behavior of the system output, periodic, quasi-periodic and chaos. The time series, attractor, Fast Fourier Transformation and bifurcation diagram for different values have been described.

Spectral methods in time for a class of parabolic partial differential equations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ierley, G.; Spencer, B.; Worthing, R.

1992-09-01

In this paper, we introduce a fully spectral solution for the partial differential equation u[sub t] + uu[sub x] + vu[sub xx] + [mu]u[sub xxx] + [lambda]u[sub xxxx] = O. For periodic boundary conditions in space, the use of a Fourier expansion in x admits of a particularly efficient algorithm with respect to expansion of the time dependence in a Chebyshev series. Boundary conditions other than periodic may still be treated with reasonable, though lesser, efficiency. for all cases, very high accuracy is attainable at moderate computational cost relative to the expense of variable order finite difference methods in time.more » 14 refs., 9 figs.« less

Effect of landscape-level fuel treatments on carbon emissions and storage over a 50 yr time cycle

Treesearch

K. Osborne; C. Dicus; C. Isbell; Alan Ager; D. Weise; M. Landram

2011-01-01

We investigated how multiple fuel treatment types, organized in varying spatial arrangements, and at increasing proportions of a mixed-conifer forest in the Klamath Mountains of northern California (~20,000 ha) variably affect carbon sequestration and emissions over a 50 year time period. Preliminary analysis of three fuel treatment scenarios (fire only, mechanical...

Evidence against decay in verbal working memory.

PubMed

Oberauer, Klaus; Lewandowsky, Stephan

2013-05-01

The article tests the assumption that forgetting in working memory for verbal materials is caused by time-based decay, using the complex-span paradigm. Participants encoded 6 letters for serial recall; each letter was preceded and followed by a processing period comprising 4 trials of difficult visual search. Processing duration, during which memory could decay, was manipulated via search set size. This manipulation increased retention interval by up to 100% without having any effect on recall accuracy. This result held with and without articulatory suppression. Two experiments using a dual-task paradigm showed that the visual search process required central attention. Thus, even when memory maintenance by central attention and by articulatory rehearsal was prevented, a large delay had no effect on memory performance, contrary to the decay notion. Most previous experiments that manipulated the retention interval and the opportunity for maintenance processes in complex span have confounded these variables with time pressure during processing periods. Three further experiments identified time pressure as the variable that affected recall. We conclude that time-based decay does not contribute to the capacity limit of verbal working memory. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

Impact of the semidiurnal lunar tide on the midlatitude thermospheric wind and ionosphere during sudden stratosphere warmings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pedatella, N. M.; Maute, A.

2015-12-01

Variability of the midlatitude ionosphere and thermosphere during the 2009 and 2013 sudden stratosphere warmings (SSWs) is investigated in the present study using a combination of Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC) observations and thermosphere-ionosphere-mesosphere electrodynamics general circulation model (TIME-GCM) simulations. Both the COSMIC observations and TIME-GCM simulations reveal perturbations in the F region peak height (hmF2) at Southern Hemisphere midlatitudes during SSW time periods. The perturbations are ˜20-30 km, which corresponds to 10-20% variability of the background mean hmF2. The TIME-GCM simulations and COSMIC observations of the hmF2 variability are in overall good agreement, and the simulations can thus be used to understand the physical processes responsible for the hmF2 variability. Through comparison of simulations with and without the migrating semidiurnal lunar tide (M2), we conclude that the midlatitude hmF2 variability is primarily driven by the propagation of the M2 into the thermosphere where it modulates the field-aligned neutral winds, which in turn raise and lower the F region peak height. Though there are subtle differences, the consistency of the behavior between the 2009 and 2013 SSWs suggests that variability in the Southern Hemisphere midlatitude ionosphere and thermosphere is a consistent feature of the SSW impact on the upper atmosphere.

Does the terrestrial phenology concept apply in water?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winder, M.; Cloern, J. E.

2009-12-01

Terrestrial plants have a life history that has evolved to a circannual rhythm in concert with the seasonal climate system and overall biomass follows a regular cycle of growth and senescence having a period of 1 year. Consistency in phase and amplitude render terrestrial plant activity an effective tool to observe shifts in the seasonal life cycle in response to climate change. The other half of Earth’s primary production occurs in aquatic systems, dominated by unicellular algae having the capacity to divide daily under optimal conditions and population changes can, in principle, occur any time within a year. Given that periods of life cycles differ on land compared to aquatic systems, it can be expected that patterns of seasonal variability might differ between terrestrial and pelagic plants. We compiled 121 phytoplankton biomass time series with a median length of 16 years from estuarine-coastal and lake ecosystems in the temperate and subtropical zone and address three questions: Do aquatic pelagic plants follow the canonical seasonal pattern of terrestrial plants? What are the dominant periodicities of aquatic primary producers? How recurrent are cyclical patterns from year to year? We applied wavelet analysis to extract the phase and amplitude of these long-term phytoplankton time series. The data revealed that in about 45 % of the aquatic sites an annual cycle of 12-month periodicity was strongest expressed, corresponding to one peak per year. In about 20 % the 6-month periodicity dominated, characteristic of two peaks within a year, and about 35 % showed a pattern best attributed to the 2-5 month band periodicity and for 2 % no consistent periodicity emerged. The reoccurrence of the seasonal fluctuations varied however greatly from year to year, ranging from more predictable patterns to irregular patterns in other sites. These findings suggest that seasonal activity of chlorophyll a can be unpredictable and variable. We propose drivers that give rise to the broad pattern of seasonal phytoplankton fluctuations and discuss advantages and limitations of using phytoplankton phenology as indicators of climate change.

Low within- and between-day variability in exposure to new insulin glargine 300 U/ml.

PubMed

Becker, R H A; Nowotny, I; Teichert, L; Bergmann, K; Kapitza, C

2015-03-01

To characterize the variability in exposure and metabolic effect of insulin glargine 300 U/ml (Gla-300) at steady state in people with type 1 diabetes (T1DM). A total of 50 participants with T1DM underwent two 24-h euglycaemic clamps in steady-state conditions after six once-daily administrations of 0.4 U/kg Gla-300 in a double-blind, randomized, two-treatment, two-period, crossover clamp study. Participants were randomized to receive Gla-300 as a standard cartridge formulation in the first treatment period, and as a formulation with enhanced stability through polysorbate-20 addition in the second treatment period, or vice versa. This design allowed the assessment of bioequivalence between formulations and, subsequently, within- and between-day variability. The cumulative exposure and effect of Gla-300 developed linearly over 24 h, and were evenly distributed across 6- and 12-h intervals. Diurnal fluctuation in exposure (within-day variability) was low; the peak-to-trough ratio of insulin concentration profiles was <2, and both the swing and peak-to-trough fluctuation were <1. Day-to-day reproducibility of exposure was high: the between-day within-subject coefficients of variation for total systemic exposure (area under the serum insulin glargine concentration time curve from time 0 to 24 h after dosing) and maximum insulin concentration were 17.4% [95% confidence interval (CI) 15-21] and 33.4% (95% CI 28-41), respectively. Reproducibility of the metabolic effect was lower than that of exposure. Gla-300 provides predictable, evenly distributed 24-h coverage as a result of low fluctuation and high reproducibility in insulin exposure, and appears suitable for effective basal insulin use. © 2014 The Authors. Diabetes, Obesity and Metabolism published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Conditionally Active Min-Max Limit Regulators

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Garg, Sanjay (Inventor); May, Ryan D. (Inventor)

2017-01-01

A conditionally active limit regulator may be used to regulate the performance of engines or other limit regulated systems. A computing system may determine whether a variable to be limited is within a predetermined range of a limit value as a first condition. The computing system may also determine whether a current rate of increase or decrease of the variable to be limited is great enough that the variable will reach the limit within a predetermined period of time with no other changes as a second condition. When both conditions are true, the computing system may activate a simulated or physical limit regulator.

Variability and prediction of freshwater and nitrate fluxes for the Louisiana-Texas shelf: Mississippi and Atchafalaya River source functions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bratkovich, A.; Dinnel, S.P.; Goolsby, D.A.

1994-01-01

Time histories of riverine water discharge, nitrate concentration, and nitrate, flux have been analyzed for the Mississippi and Atchafalaya rivers. Results indicate that water discharge variability is dominated by the annual cycle and shorter-time-scale episodic events presumably associated with snowmelt runoff and spring or summer rains. Interannual variability in water discharge is relatively small compared to the above. In contrast, nitrate concentration exhibits strongest variability at decadal time scales. The interannual variability is not monotonic but more complicated in structure. Weak covariability between water discharge and nitrate concentration leads to a relatively “noisy” nitrate flux signal. Nitrate flux variations exhibit a low-amplitude, long-term modulation of a dominant annual cycle. Predictor-hindcastor analyses indicate that skilled forecasts of nitrate concentration and nitrate flux fields are feasible. Water discharge was the most reliably hindcast (on seasonal to interannual time scales) due to the fundamental strength of the annual hydrologic cycle. However, the forecasting effort for this variable was less successful than the hindcasting effort, mostly due to a phase shift in the annual cycle during our relatively short test period (18 mo). Nitrate concentration was more skillfully predicted (seasonal to interannual time scales) due to the relative dominance of the decadal-scale portion of the signal. Nitrate flux was also skillfully forecast even though historical analyses seemed to indicate that it should be more difficult to predict than either water discharge or nitrate concentration.

RELIABILITY OF BIOMARKERS OF PESTICIDE EXPOSURE AMONG CHILDREN AND ADULTS IN CTEPP OHIO

EPA Science Inventory

Urinary biomarkers offer the potential for providing an efficient tool for exposure classification by reflecting the aggregate of all exposure routes. Substantial variability observed in urinary pesticide metabolite concentrations over short periods of time, however, has cast so...

Optimal strategies for observation of active galactic nuclei variability with Imaging Atmospheric Cherenkov Telescopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giomi, Matteo; Gerard, Lucie; Maier, Gernot

2016-07-01

Variable emission is one of the defining characteristic of active galactic nuclei (AGN). While providing precious information on the nature and physics of the sources, variability is often challenging to observe with time- and field-of-view-limited astronomical observatories such as Imaging Atmospheric Cherenkov Telescopes (IACTs). In this work, we address two questions relevant for the observation of sources characterized by AGN-like variability: what is the most time-efficient way to detect such sources, and what is the observational bias that can be introduced by the choice of the observing strategy when conducting blind surveys of the sky. Different observing strategies are evaluated using simulated light curves and realistic instrument response functions of the Cherenkov Telescope Array (CTA), a future gamma-ray observatory. We show that strategies that makes use of very small observing windows, spread over large periods of time, allows for a faster detection of the source, and are less influenced by the variability properties of the sources, as compared to strategies that concentrate the observing time in a small number of large observing windows. Although derived using CTA as an example, our conclusions are conceptually valid for any IACTs facility, and in general, to all observatories with small field of view and limited duty cycle.

Use of a prototype pulse oximeter for time series analysis of heart rate variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González, Erika; López, Jehú; Hautefeuille, Mathieu; Velázquez, Víctor; Del Moral, Jésica

2015-05-01

This work presents the development of a low cost pulse oximeter prototype consisting of pulsed red and infrared commercial LEDs and a broad spectral photodetector used to register time series of heart rate and oxygen saturation of blood. This platform, besides providing these values, like any other pulse oximeter, processes the signals to compute a power spectrum analysis of the patient heart rate variability in real time and, additionally, the device allows access to all raw and analyzed data if databases construction is required or another kind of further analysis is desired. Since the prototype is capable of acquiring data for long periods of time, it is suitable for collecting data in real life activities, enabling the development of future wearable applications.

Nonlinear Time Series Analysis in the Absence of Strong Harmonics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stine, Peter; Jevtic, N.

2010-05-01

Nonlinear time series analysis has successfully been used for noise reduction and for identifying long term periodicities in variable star light curves. It was thought that good noise reduction could be obtained when a strong fundamental and second harmonic are present. We show that, quite unexpectedly, this methodology for noise reduction can be efficient for data with very noisy power spectra without a strong fundamental and second harmonic. Not only can one obtain almost two orders of magnitude noise reduction of the white noise tail, insight can also be gained into the short time scale of organized behavior. Thus, we are able to obtain an estimate of this short time scale, which is on the order of 1.5 hours in the case of a variable white dwarf.

Amplitude Variations in Pulsating Red Giants. II. Some Systematics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Percy, J. R.; Laing, J.

2017-12-01

In order to extend our previous studies of the unexplained phenomenon of cyclic amplitude variations in pulsating red giants, we have used the AAVSO time-series analysis package vstar to analyze long-term AAVSO visual observations of 50 such stars, mostly Mira stars. The relative amount of the variation, typically a factor of 1.5, and the time scale of the variation, typically 20-35 pulsation periods, are not significantly different in longer-period, shorter-period, and carbon stars in our sample, and they also occur in stars whose period is changing secularly, perhaps due to a thermal pulse. The time scale of the variations is similar to that in smaller-amplitude SR variables, but the relative amount of the variation appears to be larger in smaller-amplitude stars, and is therefore more conspicuous. The cause of the amplitude variations remains unclear, though they may be due to rotational modulation of a star whose pulsating surface is dominated by the effects of large convective cells.

Spatiotemporal Variability of Dimethylsulphoniopropionate on a Fringing Coral Reef: The Role of Reefal Carbonate Chemistry and Environmental Variability

PubMed Central

Burdett, Heidi L.; Donohue, Penelope J. C.; Hatton, Angela D.; Alwany, Magdy A.; Kamenos, Nicholas A.

2013-01-01

Oceanic pH is projected to decrease by up to 0.5 units by 2100 (a process known as ocean acidification, OA), reducing the calcium carbonate saturation state of the oceans. The coastal ocean is expected to experience periods of even lower carbonate saturation state because of the inherent natural variability of coastal habitats. Thus, in order to accurately project the impact of OA on the coastal ocean, we must first understand its natural variability. The production of dimethylsulphoniopropionate (DMSP) by marine algae and the release of DMSP’s breakdown product dimethylsulphide (DMS) are often related to environmental stress. This study investigated the spatiotemporal response of tropical macroalgae (Padina sp., Amphiroa sp. and Turbinaria sp.) and the overlying water column to natural changes in reefal carbonate chemistry. We compared macroalgal intracellular DMSP and water column DMSP+DMS concentrations between the environmentally stable reef crest and environmentally variable reef flat of the fringing Suleman Reef, Egypt, over 45-hour sampling periods. Similar diel patterns were observed throughout: maximum intracellular DMSP and water column DMS/P concentrations were observed at night, coinciding with the time of lowest carbonate saturation state. Spatially, water column DMS/P concentrations were highest over areas dominated by seagrass and macroalgae (dissolved DMS/P) and phytoplankton (particulate DMS/P) rather than corals. This research suggests that macroalgae may use DMSP to maintain metabolic function during periods of low carbonate saturation state. In the reef system, seagrass and macroalgae may be more important benthic producers of dissolved DMS/P than corals. An increase in DMS/P concentrations during periods of low carbonate saturation state may become ecologically important in the future under an OA regime, impacting larval settlement and increasing atmospheric emissions of DMS. PMID:23724073

Weather variables and the El Niño Southern Oscillation may drive the epidemics of dengue in Guangdong Province, China.

PubMed

Xiao, Jianpeng; Liu, Tao; Lin, Hualiang; Zhu, Guanghu; Zeng, Weilin; Li, Xing; Zhang, Bing; Song, Tie; Deng, Aiping; Zhang, Meng; Zhong, Haojie; Lin, Shao; Rutherford, Shannon; Meng, Xiaojing; Zhang, Yonghui; Ma, Wenjun

2018-05-15

To investigate the periodicity of dengue and the relationship between weather variables, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and dengue incidence in Guangdong Province, China. Guangdong monthly dengue incidence and weather data and El Niño index information for 1988 to 2015 were collected. Wavelet analysis was used to investigate the periodicity of dengue, and the coherence and time-lag phases between dengue and weather variables and ENSO. The Generalized Additive Model (GAM) approach was further employed to explore the dose-response relationship of those variables on dengue. Finally, random forest analysis was applied to measure the relative importance of the climate predictors. Dengue in Guangdong has a dominant annual periodicity over the period 1988-2015. Mean minimum temperature, total precipitation, and mean relative humidity are positively related to dengue incidence for 2, 3, and 4months lag, respectively. ENSO in the previous 12months may have driven the dengue epidemics in 1995, 2002, 2006 and 2010 in Guangdong. GAM analysis indicates an approximate linear association for the temperature-dengue relationship, approximate logarithm curve for the humidity-dengue relationship, and an inverted U-shape association for the precipitation-dengue (the threshold of precipitation is 348mm per month) and ENSO-dengue relationships (the threshold of ENSO index is 0.6°C). The monthly mean minimum temperature in the previous two months was identified as the most important climate variable associated with dengue epidemics in Guangdong Province. Our study suggests weather factors and ENSO are important predictors of dengue incidence. These findings provide useful evidence for early warning systems to help to respond to the global expansion of dengue fever. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Climate variability and vadose zone controls on damping of transient recharge

USGS Publications Warehouse

Corona, Claudia R.; Gurdak, Jason J.; Dickinson, Jesse; Ferré, T.P.A.; Maurer, Edwin P.

2018-01-01

Increasing demand on groundwater resources motivates understanding of the controls on recharge dynamics so model predictions under current and future climate may improve. Here we address questions about the nonlinear behavior of flux variability in the vadose zone that may explain previously reported teleconnections between global-scale climate variability and fluctuations in groundwater levels. We use hundreds of HYDRUS-1D simulations in a sensitivity analysis approach to evaluate the damping depth of transient recharge over a range of periodic boundary conditions and vadose zone geometries and hydraulic parameters that are representative of aquifer systems of the conterminous United States (U.S). Although the models were parameterized based on U.S. aquifers, findings from this study are applicable elsewhere that have mean recharge rates between 3.65 and 730 mm yr–1. We find that mean infiltration flux, period of time varying infiltration, and hydraulic conductivity are statistically significant predictors of damping depth. The resulting framework explains why some periodic infiltration fluxes associated with climate variability dampen with depth in the vadose zone, resulting in steady-state recharge, while other periodic surface fluxes do not dampen with depth, resulting in transient recharge. We find that transient recharge in response to the climate variability patterns could be detected at the depths of water levels in most U.S. aquifers. Our findings indicate that the damping behavior of transient infiltration fluxes is linear across soil layers for a range of texture combinations. The implications are that relatively simple, homogeneous models of the vadose zone may provide reasonable estimates of the damping depth of climate-varying transient recharge in some complex, layered vadose zone profiles.

Lights and shadows: multi-wavelength analysis of young stellar objects and their protoplanetary discs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rigon, Laura

2016-03-01

Stars form from the collapse of molecular clouds and evolve in an environment rich in gas and dust before becoming Main Sequence stars. During this phase, characterised by the presence of a protoplanetary disc, stars manifest changes in the structure and luminosity. This thesis performs a multi-wavelength analysis, from optical to mm range, on a sample of young stars (YSOs), mainly Classical T Tauri (CTTS). The purpose is to study optical and infrared variability and its relation with the protoplanetary disc. Longer wavelength, in the mm range, are used instead to investigate the evolution of the disc, in terms of dust growth. In optical, an F-test on a sample of 39 CTTS reveals that 67% of the stars are variable. The variability, quantified through pooled sigma, is visible both in magnitude amplitudes and changes over time. Time series analysis applied on the more variable stars finds the presence of quasi periodicity, with periods longer than two weeks, interpreted either as eclipsing material in the disc happening on a non-regular basis, or as a consequence of star-disc interaction via magnetic field lines. The variability of YSOs is confirmed also in infrared, even if with lower amplitude. No strong correlations are found between optical and infrared variability, which implies a different cause or a time shift in the two events. By using a toy model to explore their origin, I find that infrared variations are likely to stem from emissions in the inner disc. The evolution of discs in terms of dust growth is confirmed in most discs by the analysis of the slope of the spectral energy distribution (SED), after correcting for wind emission and optical depth effects. However, the comparison with a radiative transfer model highlights that a number of disc parameters, in particular disc masses and temperature, dust size distribution and composition, can also affect the slope of the SED.

Climatic and geologic controls on the piezometry of the Querença-Silves karst aquifer, Algarve (Portugal)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neves, Maria C.; Costa, Luis; Monteiro, José P.

2016-06-01

Karst aquifers in semi-arid regions, like Querença-Silves (Portugal), are particularly vulnerable to climate variability. For the first time in this region, the temporal structure of a groundwater-level time series (1985-2010) was explored using the continuous wavelet transform. The investigation focused on a set of four piezometers, two at each side of the S. Marcos-Quarteira fault, to demonstrate how each of the two sectors of the aquifer respond to climate-induced patterns. Singular spectral analysis applied to an extended set of piezometers enabled identification of several quasi-periodic modes of variability, with periods of 6.5, 4.3, 3.2 and 2.6 years, which can be explained by low-frequency climate patterns. The geologic forcing accounts for ~15 % of the differential variability between the eastern and western sectors of the aquifer. The western sector displays spatially homogenous piezometric variations, large memory effects and low-pass filtering characteristics, which are consistent with relatively large and uniform values of water storage capacity and transmissivity properties. In this sector, the 6.5-year mode of variability accounts for ~70 % of the total variance of the groundwater levels. The eastern sector shows larger spatial and temporal heterogeneity, is more reactive to short-term variations, and is less influenced by the low-frequency components related to climate patterns.

Stochastic investigation of wind process for climatic variability identification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deligiannis, Ilias; Tyrogiannis, Vassilis; Daskalou, Olympia; Dimitriadis, Panayiotis; Markonis, Yannis; Iliopoulou, Theano; Koutsoyiannis, Demetris

2016-04-01

The wind process is considered one of the hydrometeorological processes that generates and drives the climate dynamics. We use a dataset comprising hourly wind records to identify statistical variability with emphasis on the last period. Specifically, we investigate the occurrence of mean, maximum and minimum values and we estimate statistical properties such as marginal probability distribution function and the type of decay of the climacogram (i.e., mean process variance vs. scale) for various time periods. Acknowledgement: This research is conducted within the frame of the undergraduate course "Stochastic Methods in Water Resources" of the National Technical University of Athens (NTUA). The School of Civil Engineering of NTUA provided moral support for the participation of the students in the Assembly.

Selecting a proper design period for heliostat field layout optimization using Campo code

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saghafifar, Mohammad; Gadalla, Mohamed

2016-09-01

In this paper, different approaches are considered to calculate the cosine factor which is utilized in Campo code to expand the heliostat field layout and maximize its annual thermal output. Furthermore, three heliostat fields containing different number of mirrors are taken into consideration. Cosine factor is determined by considering instantaneous and time-average approaches. For instantaneous method, different design days and design hours are selected. For the time average method, daily time average, monthly time average, seasonally time average, and yearly time averaged cosine factor determinations are considered. Results indicate that instantaneous methods are more appropriate for small scale heliostat field optimization. Consequently, it is proposed to consider the design period as the second design variable to ensure the best outcome. For medium and large scale heliostat fields, selecting an appropriate design period is more important. Therefore, it is more reliable to select one of the recommended time average methods to optimize the field layout. Optimum annual weighted efficiency for heliostat fields (small, medium, and large) containing 350, 1460, and 3450 mirrors are 66.14%, 60.87%, and 54.04%, respectively.

Tridacna Derived ENSO Records From The Philippines During The Last Interglacial Show Similar ENSO Activity To The Present Day

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Welsh, K.; Morgan, Z.; Suzuki, A.

2016-12-01

Although modeled predictions for the relative strength and frequency of ENSO under mean warming conditions suggest an increase in the number and strength of ENSO event, however there are limited seasonally resolved records of ENSO variability during previous warm periods for example the last interglacial to test these models as reliable archives such as corals are not generally well preserved over these time periods. Presented here are two multi decadal Tridacna gigas derived stable isotopic time series from a coral terrace on the island of Cebu in the Philippines that formed during MIS5e based upon geomorphology and open-system corrected U/Th dating of corals. The ENSO activity observed in these time well preserved records indicate a similar level of ENSO activity during the last interglacial period as the present day based upon comparisons with recent coral derived stable isotopic records. Though these are relatively short records they provide further windows into ENSO activity from this important time period and demonstrate this area may be provide more opportunities to gather these archives.

Impact of the Penalty Points System on Road Traffic Injuries in Spain: A Time–Series Study

PubMed Central

Novoa, Ana M.; Santamariña-Rubio, Elena; Marí-Dell'Olmo, Marc; Ferrando, Josep; Peiró, Rosana; Tobías, Aurelio; Zori, Pilar; Borrell, Carme

2010-01-01

Objectives. We assessed the effectiveness of the penalty points system (PPS) introduced in Spain in July 2006 in reducing traffic injuries. Methods. We performed an evaluation study with an interrupted time–series design. We stratified dependent variables—numbers of drivers involved in injury collisions and people injured in traffic collisions in Spain from 2000 to 2007 (police data)—by age, injury severity, type of road user, road type, and time of collision, and analyzed variables separately by gender. The explanatory variable (the PPS) compared the postintervention period (July 2006 to December 2007) with the preintervention period (January 2000 to June 2006). We used quasi-Poisson regression, controlling for time trend and seasonality. Results. Among men, we observed a significant risk reduction in the postintervention period for seriously injured drivers (relative risk [RR] = 0.89) and seriously injured people (RR = 0.89). The RRs among women were 0.91 (P = .095) and 0.88 (P < .05), respectively. Risk reduction was greater among male drivers, moped riders, and on urban roads. Conclusions. The PPS was associated with reduced numbers of drivers involved in injury collisions and people injured by traffic collisions in Spain. PMID:20864703

A Global Three-Dimensional Radiation Hydrodynamic Simulation of a Self-Gravitating Accretion Disk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phillipson, Rebecca; Vogeley, Michael S.; McMillan, Stephen; Boyd, Patricia

2018-01-01

We present three-dimensional, radiation hydrodynamic simulations of initially thin accretion disks with self-gravity using the grid-based code PLUTO. We produce simulated light curves and spectral energy distributions and compare to observational data of X-ray binary (XRB) and active galactic nuclei (AGN) variability. These simulations are of interest for modeling the role of radiation in accretion physics across decades of mass and frequency. In particular, the characteristics of the time variability in various bandwidths can probe the timescales over which different physical processes dominate the accretion flow. For example, in the case of some XRBs, superorbital periods much longer than the companion orbital period have been observed. Smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) calculations have shown that irradiation-driven warping could be the mechanism underlying these long periods. In the case of AGN, irradiation-driven warping is also predicted to occur in addition to strong outflows originating from thermal and radiation pressure driving forces, which are important processes in understanding feedback and star formation in active galaxies. We compare our simulations to various toy models via traditional time series analysis of our synthetic and observed light curves.

Results of a prototype surface water network design for pesticides developed for the San Joaquin River Basin, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Domagalski, Joseph L.

1997-01-01

A nested surface water monitoring network was designed and tested to measure variability in pesticide concentrations in the San Joaquin River and selected tributaries during the irrigation season. The network design an d sampling frequency necessary for determining the variability and distribution in pesticide concentrations were tested in a prototype study. The San Joaquin River Basin, California, was sampled from April to August 1992, a period during the irrigation season where there was no rainfall. Orestimba Creek, which drains a part of the western San Joaquin Valley, was sampled three times per week for 6 weeks, followed by a once per week sampling for 6 weeks, and the three times per week sampling for 6 weeks. A site on the San Joaquin River near the mouth of the basin, and an irrigation drain of the eastern San Joaquin Valley, were sampled weekly during the entire sampling period. Pesticides were most often detected in samples collected from Orestimba Creek. This suggests that the western valley was the principal source of pesticides to the San Joaquin River during the irrigation season. Irrigation drainage water was the source of pesticides to Orestimba Creek. Pesticide concentrations of Orestimba Creek showed greater temporal variability when sampled three times per week than when sampled once a week, due to variations in field management and irrigation. The implication for the San Joaquin River basin (an irrigation-dominated agricultural setting) is that frequent sampling of tributary sites is necessary to describe the variability in pesticides transported to the San Joaquin River.

Effect of meteorological variables on the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease in children: a time-series analysis in Guangzhou, China.

PubMed

Huang, Yong; Deng, Te; Yu, Shicheng; Gu, Jing; Huang, Cunrui; Xiao, Gexin; Hao, Yuantao

2013-03-13

Over the last decade, major outbreaks of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) have been reported in Asian countries, resulting in thousands of deaths among children. However, less is known regarding the effect of meteorological variables on the incidence of HFMD in children. This study aims at quantifying the relationship between meteorological variables and the incidence of HFMD among children in Guangzhou, China. The association between weekly HFMD cases in children aged <15 years and meteorological variables in Guangzhou from 2008 to 2011 were analyzed using the generalized additive model (GAM) and time-series method, after controlling for long-term trend and seasonality, holiday effects, influenza period and delayed effects. Temperature and relative humidity with one week lag were significantly associated with HFMD infection among children. We found that a 1°C increase in temperature led to an increase of 1.86% (95% CI: 0.92, 2.81%) in the weekly number of cases in the 0-14 years age group. A one percent increase in relative humidity may lead to an increase of 1.42% (95% CI: 0.97, 1.87%) in the weekly number of cases in the 0-14 years age group. This study provides quantitative evidence that the incidence of HFMD in children was associated with high average temperature and high relative humidity. The one-week delay in the effects of temperature and relative humidity on HFMD is consistent with the enterovirus incubation period and the potential time lag between onset of children's sickness and parental awareness and response.

Longitudinal change in physical activity and its correlates in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis.

PubMed

Motl, Robert W; McAuley, Edward; Sandroff, Brian M

2013-08-01

Physical activity is beneficial for people with multiple sclerosis (MS), but this population is largely inactive. There is minimal information on change in physical activity and its correlates for informing the development of behavioral interventions. This study examined change in physical activity and its symptomatic, social-cognitive, and ambulatory or disability correlates over a 2.5-year period of time in people with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis. On 6 occasions, each separated by 6 months, people (N=269) with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis completed assessments of symptoms, self-efficacy, walking impairment, disability, and physical activity. The participants wore an accelerometer for 7 days. The change in study variables over 6 time points was examined with unconditional latent growth curve modeling. The association among changes in study variables over time was examined using conditional latent growth curve modeling, and the associations were expressed as standardized path coefficients (β). There were significant linear changes in self-reported and objectively measured physical activity, self-efficacy, walking impairment, and disability over the 2.5-year period; there were no changes in fatigue, depression, and pain. The changes in self-reported and objective physical activity were associated with change in self-efficacy (β=.49 and β=.61, respectively), after controlling for other variables and confounders. The primary limitations of the study were the generalizability of results among those with progressive multiple sclerosis and inclusion of a single variable from social-cognitive theory. Researchers should consider designing interventions that target self-efficacy for the promotion and maintenance of physical activity in this population.

Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes observed in Modena, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boccolari, M.; Malmusi, S.

2013-03-01

Climate changes has become one of the most analysed subjects from researchers community, mainly because of the numerous extreme events that hit the globe. To have a better view of climate changes and trends, long observations time series are needed. During last decade a lot of Italian time series, concerning several surface meteorological variables, have been analysed and published. No one of them includes one of the longest record in Italy, the time series of the Geophysical Observatory of the University of Modena and Reggio Emilia. Measurements, collected since early 19th century, always in the same position, except for some months during the second world war, embrace daily temperature, precipitation amount, relative humidity, pressure, cloudiness and other variables. In this work we concentrated on the analysis of yearly and seasonal trends and climate extremes of temperature, both minimum and maximum, and precipitation time series, for the periods 1861-2010 and 1831-2010 respectively, in which continuous measurements are available. In general, our results confirm quite well those reported by IPCC and in many other studies over Mediterranean area. In particular, we found that minimum temperature has a non significant positive trend of + 0.1 °C per decade considering all the period, the value increases to 0.9 °C per decade for 1981-2010. For maximum temperature we observed a non significant + 0.1 °C trend for all the period, while + 0.8 °C for the last thirty years. On the other hand precipitation is decreasing, -6.3 mm per decade, considering all the analysed period, while the last thirty years are characterised by a great increment of 74.8 mm per decade. For both variables several climate indices have been analysed and they confirm what has been found for minimum and maximum temperatures and precipitation. In particular, during last 30 years frost days and ice days are decreasing, whereas summer days are increasing. During the last 30-year tropical nights and warm spell duration indices are characterised by a particular strong increment, if compared to the ones of the entire period. Finally, a cursory comparison between winter precipitation and NAO index was done, showing a high anti-correlation, especially since the second half of 20th century.

New Variable Stars in the KP2001 Catalog from the Data Base of the Northern Sky Variability Survey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petrosyan, G. V.

2018-03-01

The optical variability of stars in the KP2001 catalog is studied. Monitor data from the automatic Northern Sky Variability Survey (NSVS) are used for this purpose. Of the 257 objects that were studied, 5 are Mira Ceti variables (mirids), 33 are semiregular (SR), and 108 are irregular variables (Ir). The light curves of the other objects show no noticeable signs of variability. For the first time, 11 stars are assigned to the semiregular and 105 stars to the irregular variables. Of the irregular variables, the light curves of two, No. 8 and No. 194, are distinct and are similar to the curves for eclipsing variables. The periods and amplitudes of the mirids and semiregular variables are determined using the "VStar" program package from AAVSO. The absolute stellar magnitudes M K and distances are also estimated, along with the mass loss for the mirids. The behavior of stars from KP2001 in 2MASS and WISE color diagrams is examined.

Accurate frequency domain measurement of the best linear time-invariant approximation of linear time-periodic systems including the quantification of the time-periodic distortions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Louarroudi, E.; Pintelon, R.; Lataire, J.

2014-10-01

Time-periodic (TP) phenomena occurring, for instance, in wind turbines, helicopters, anisotropic shaft-bearing systems, and cardiovascular/respiratory systems, are often not addressed when classical frequency response function (FRF) measurements are performed. As the traditional FRF concept is based on the linear time-invariant (LTI) system theory, it is only approximately valid for systems with varying dynamics. Accordingly, the quantification of any deviation from this ideal LTI framework is more than welcome. The “measure of deviation” allows us to define the notion of the best LTI (BLTI) approximation, which yields the best - in mean square sense - LTI description of a linear time-periodic LTP system. By taking into consideration the TP effects, it is shown in this paper that the variability of the BLTI measurement can be reduced significantly compared with that of classical FRF estimators. From a single experiment, the proposed identification methods can handle (non-)linear time-periodic [(N)LTP] systems in open-loop with a quantification of (i) the noise and/or the NL distortions, (ii) the TP distortions and (iii) the transient (leakage) errors. Besides, a geometrical interpretation of the BLTI approximation is provided, leading to a framework called vector FRF analysis. The theory presented is supported by numerical simulations as well as real measurements mimicking the well-known mechanical Mathieu oscillator.

Translating hydrologically-relevant variables from the ice sheet model SICOPOLIS to the Greenland Analog Project hydrologic modeling domain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vallot, Dorothée; Applegate, Patrick; Pettersson, Rickard

2013-04-01

Projecting future climate and ice sheet development requires sophisticated models and extensive field observations. Given the present state of our knowledge, it is very difficult to say what will happen with certainty. Despite the ongoing increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, the possibility that a new ice sheet might form over Scandinavia in the far distant future cannot be excluded. The growth of a new Scandinavian Ice Sheet would have important consequences for buried nuclear waste repositories. The Greenland Analogue Project, initiated by the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB), is working to assess the effects of a possible future ice sheet on groundwater flow by studying a constrained domain in Western Greenland by field measurements (including deep bedrock drilling in front of the ice sheet) combined with numerical modeling. To address the needs of the GAP project, we interpolated results from an ensemble of ice sheet model runs to the smaller and more finely resolved modeling domain used in the GAP project's hydrologic modeling. Three runs have been chosen with three fairly different positive degree-day factors among those that reproduced the modern ice margin at the borehole position. The interpolated results describe changes in hydrologically-relevant variables over two time periods, 115 ka to 80 ka, and 20 ka to 1 ka. In the first of these time periods, the ice margin advances over the model domain; in the second time period, the ice margin retreats over the model domain. The spatially-and temporally dependent variables that we treated include the ice thickness, basal melting rate, surface mass balance, basal temperature, basal thermal regime (frozen or thawed), surface temperature, and basal water pressure. The melt flux is also calculated.

Chandra X-ray Time-Domain Study of Alpha Centauri AB, Procyon, and their Environs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ayres, Thomas R.

2018-06-01

For more than a decade, Chandra X-ray Observatory has been monitoring the central AB binary (G2V+K1V) of the α Centauri triple system with semi-annual pointings, using the High-Resolution Camera. This study has been extended in recent years to the mid-F subgiant, Procyon. The main objective is to follow the coronal (T~1MK) activity variations of the three stars, analogous to the Sun's 11-year sunspot cycle. Tentative periods of 20 yr and 8 yr have been deduced for α Cen A and B, respectively; but so far Procyon has shown only a slow, very modest decline in count rate, which could well reflect a slight instrumental degradation rather than intrinsic behavior. The negligible high-energy variability of Procyon sits in stark contrast to the dramatic factor of several to ten changes in the X-ray luminosities of α Cen AB and the Sun over their respective cycles. Further, although sunlike α Cen A has been observed by successive generations of X-ray observatories for nearly four decades, albeit sporadically, there are key gaps in the coverage that affect the determination of the cycle period. In fact, the most recent pointings suggest a downturn in A's count rate that might be signaling a shorter, more solar-like cycle following a delayed minimum in the 2005--2010 time frame (perhaps an exaggerated version of the extended solar minimum between recent Cycles 23 and 24). Beyond the coronal cycles of the three stars, the sequence of periodic X-ray images represents a unique time-domain history concerning steady as well as variable sources in the two 30'x30' fields. The most conspicuous of the variable objects -- in the α Cen field -- will be described here.

Remote Sensing Characterization of Two-dimensional Wave Forcing in the Surf Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carini, R. J.; Chickadel, C. C.; Jessup, A. T.

2016-02-01

In the surf zone, breaking waves drive longshore currents, transport sediment, shape bathymetry, and enhance air-sea gas and particle exchange. Furthermore, wave group forcing influences the generation and duration of rip currents. Wave breaking exhibits large gradients in space and time, making it challenging to measure in situ. Remote sensing technologies, specifically thermal infrared (IR) imagery, can provide detailed spatial and temporal measurements of wave breaking at the water surface. We construct two-dimensional maps of active wave breaking from IR imagery collected during the Surf Zone Optics Experiment in September 2010 at the US Army Corps of Engineers' Field Research Facility in Duck, NC. For each breaker identified in the camera's field of view, the crest-perpendicular length of the aerated breaking region (roller length) and wave direction are estimated and used to compute the wave energy dissipation rate. The resultant dissipation rate maps are analyzed over different time scales: peak wave period, infragravity wave period, and tidal wave period. For each time scale, spatial maps of wave breaking are used to characterize wave forcing in the surf zone for a variety of wave conditions. The following phenomena are examined: (1) wave dissipation rates over the bar (location of most intense breaking) have increased variance in infragravity wave frequencies, which are different from the peak frequency of the incoming wave field and different from the wave forcing variability at the shoreline, and (2) wave forcing has a wider spatial distribution during low tide than during high tide due to depth-limited breaking over the barred bathymetry. Future work will investigate the response of the variability in wave setup, longshore currents and rip currents, to the variability in wave forcing in the surf zone.

Quantitative assessment of prevalence of pre-analytical variables and their effect on coagulation assay. Can intervention improve patient safety?

PubMed

Bhushan, Ravi; Sen, Arijit

2017-04-01

Very few Indian studies exist on evaluation of pre-analytical variables affecting "Prothrombin Time" the commonest coagulation assay performed. The study was performed in an Indian tertiary care setting with an aim to assess quantitatively the prevalence of pre-analytical variables and their effects on the results (patient safety), for Prothrombin time test. The study also evaluated their effects on the result and whether intervention, did correct the results. The firstly evaluated the prevalence for various pre-analytical variables detected in samples sent for Prothrombin Time testing. These samples with the detected variables wherever possible were tested and result noted. The samples from the same patients were repeated and retested ensuring that no pre-analytical variable is present. The results were again noted to check for difference the intervention produced. The study evaluated 9989 samples received for PT/INR over a period of 18 months. The prevalence of different pre-analytical variables was found to be 862 (8.63%). The proportion of various pre-analytical variables detected were haemolysed samples 515 (5.16%), over filled vacutainers 62 (0.62%), under filled vacutainers 39 (0.39%), low values 205 (2.05%), clotted samples 11 (0.11%), wrong labeling 4 (0.04%), wrong vacutainer use 2 (0.02%), chylous samples 7 (0.07%) and samples with more than one variable 17 (0.17%). The comparison of percentage of samples showing errors were noted for the first variables since they could be tested with and without the variable in place. The reduction in error percentage was 91.5%, 69.2%, 81.5% and 95.4% post intervention for haemolysed, overfilled, under filled and samples collected with excess pressure at phlebotomy respectively. Correcting the variables did reduce the error percentage to a great extent in these four variables and hence the variables are found to affect "Prothrombin Time" testing and can hamper patient safety.

Serendipitous discovery of an irregular and a semi-regular type variable in the field of BY Draconis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Messina, S.; Marino, G.; Rodonò, M.; Cutispoto, G.

2000-12-01

We present new evidence of the optical variability of two red giant stars: HD 172468 and HK Dra, based on photometric and spectroscopic observations. These stars had been included as check stars in our photometric monitoring program of BY Dra and turned out to be variable. HD 172468, whereas almost constant for most of the time, suddenly started to drop in brightness to such a low level to become undetectable. We suspect that such an abrupt event may be an ``obscurational'' minimum, that is typical of eruptive RCB stars, or may be due to the variable extinction by circumstellar dust in a young Orion type object. HK Dra, already known as an irregular variable, is characterised by periodic flux modulation with season-to-season changes of the photometric period, as inferred from a periodogram analysis. It also shows changes of the light curve peak-to-peak amplitude and shape. Such a behaviour in giant stars is commonly found among semi-regular giants (SR) at the Asymptotic Giant Branch (AGB). Our radial velocity measurements rule out that HK Dra may be a close binary system.

Flexible and scalable methods for quantifying stochastic variability in the era of massive time-domain astronomical data sets

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kelly, Brandon C.; Becker, Andrew C.; Sobolewska, Malgosia

2014-06-10

We present the use of continuous-time autoregressive moving average (CARMA) models as a method for estimating the variability features of a light curve, and in particular its power spectral density (PSD). CARMA models fully account for irregular sampling and measurement errors, making them valuable for quantifying variability, forecasting and interpolating light curves, and variability-based classification. We show that the PSD of a CARMA model can be expressed as a sum of Lorentzian functions, which makes them extremely flexible and able to model a broad range of PSDs. We present the likelihood function for light curves sampled from CARMA processes, placingmore » them on a statistically rigorous foundation, and we present a Bayesian method to infer the probability distribution of the PSD given the measured light curve. Because calculation of the likelihood function scales linearly with the number of data points, CARMA modeling scales to current and future massive time-domain data sets. We conclude by applying our CARMA modeling approach to light curves for an X-ray binary, two active galactic nuclei, a long-period variable star, and an RR Lyrae star in order to illustrate their use, applicability, and interpretation.« less

River discharge as a major driving force on spatial and temporal variations in zooplankton biomass and community structure in the Godavari estuary India.

PubMed

Venkataramana, V; Sarma, V V S S; Matta Reddy, Alavala

2017-08-28

Variability in horizontal zooplankton biomass distribution was investigated over 13 months in the Godavari estuary, along with physical (river discharge, temperature, salinity), chemical (nutrients, particulate organic matter), biological (phytoplankton biomass), and geological (suspended matter) properties to examine the influencing factors on their spatial and temporal variabilities. The entire estuary was filled with freshwater during peak discharge period and salinity near zero, increased to ~ 34 psu during dry period with relatively high nutrient levels during former than the latter period. Due to low flushing time (< 1 day) and high suspended load (> 500 mg L -1 ) during peak discharge period, picoplankton (cyanophyceae) contributed significantly to the phytoplankton biomass (Chl-a) whereas microplankton and nanoplankton (bacillariophyceae, and chlorophyceae) during moderate and mostly microplankton during dry period. Zooplankton biomass was the lowest during peak discharge period and increased during moderate followed by dry period. The zooplankton abundance was controlled by dead organic matter during peak discharge period, while both phytoplankton biomass and dead organic matter during moderate discharge and mostly phytoplankton biomass during dry period. This study suggests that significant modification of physico-chemical properties by river discharge led to changes in phytoplankton composition and dead organic matter concentrations that alters biomass, abundance, and composition of zooplankton in the Godavari estuary.

National and regional analysis of road accidents in Spain.

PubMed

Tolón-Becerra, A; Lastra-Bravo, X; Flores-Parra, I

2013-01-01

In Spain, the absolute fatality figures decreased almost 50 percent between 1998 and 2009. Despite this great effort, road mortality is still of great concern to political authorities. Further progress requires efficient road safety policy based on an optimal set of measures and targets that consider the initial conditions and characteristics in each region. This study attempts to analyze road accidents in Spain and its provinces in time and space during 1998-2009. First, we analyzed daily, monthly, and nationwide (NUTS 0) development of road accidents, the correlation between logarithmic transformations of road accidents and territorial and socioeconomic variables, the causality by simple linear regression of road accidents and territorial and socioeconomic variables, and preliminary frequency by fast Fourier transform. Then we analyzed the annual trend in accidents in the Spanish provinces (NUTS 3) and found a correlation between the logarithmic transformations of the mortality rate, fatalities per fatal accident, and accidents resulting in injuries per inhabitant variables and population, population density, gross domestic product (GDP), length of road network, and area. Finally, causality was analyzed by simple linear regression. The most outstanding results were the negative correlation between mortality rate and population density in Spanish provinces, which has increased over time, and that road accidents in Spain have an approximate periodicity of 57 days. The fast Fourier transform analysis of road accident frequency in Spain was useful in identifying the periodic, harmonic components of accidents and casualties. The periodicity observed both for the period 1998-2009 and by year showed that the highest intensity in road accidents was bimonthly, despite the lower number of accidents and casualties in the spectra of amplitude and power and efforts to reduce the intensity and concentration during off-season travel (summer and December).

Precision Photometry of Long Period Variable Stars: Flares and Bumps in the Night (Poster abstract)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mais, D.

2015-06-01

(Abstract only) Mira variable stars are a broad class of stars, which encompass spectroscopic classes of type M, S, and C. These stars are closely related in terms of their long term variability, position on the Hertzsprung-Russell diagram their intermediate mass (from ~0.8 to ~8 solar mass) and the fact that class M evolves into the S and C type stars as certain stages of shell burning around the core proceeds. Recently, evidence has accumulated to suggest that Mira variables may go through flare up stages which result in brightening on the order of several tenths of a magnitude or more and may last hours to days in length. Very little is known about these events, indeed it is not clear that these events are real. In order to address the reality of these events, we established an automated acquisition/analysis of a group of 108 Mira variables in order to obtain the densest coverage of the periods to better constrain the potential flare-ups. Telescope control scripts were put in place along with real time analysis. This allowed for unattended acquisition of data on every clear night, all night long, in the V, R, and I photometric bands. In addition, during the course of the night multiple determinations are often obtained for a given star. The light curves of many of the program stars show a Cepheid-like bump phenomenon, however these appear on the ascending part of the light curve. In general, these bumps appear in longer period Mira's (>350 days). Bumps are not obvious or easily seen in VISUAL data records, although slope changes during rising phase are seen in some cases. So far, greater than 100,000 magnitude determinations have been obtained, many closely spaced in time. This should help to further constrain the potential occurrences of flare-up events.

Quantitative estimation of time-variable earthquake hazard by using fuzzy set theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deyi, Feng; Ichikawa, M.

1989-11-01

In this paper, the various methods of fuzzy set theory, called fuzzy mathematics, have been applied to the quantitative estimation of the time-variable earthquake hazard. The results obtained consist of the following. (1) Quantitative estimation of the earthquake hazard on the basis of seismicity data. By using some methods of fuzzy mathematics, seismicity patterns before large earthquakes can be studied more clearly and more quantitatively, highly active periods in a given region and quiet periods of seismic activity before large earthquakes can be recognized, similarities in temporal variation of seismic activity and seismic gaps can be examined and, on the other hand, the time-variable earthquake hazard can be assessed directly on the basis of a series of statistical indices of seismicity. Two methods of fuzzy clustering analysis, the method of fuzzy similarity, and the direct method of fuzzy pattern recognition, have been studied is particular. One method of fuzzy clustering analysis is based on fuzzy netting, and another is based on the fuzzy equivalent relation. (2) Quantitative estimation of the earthquake hazard on the basis of observational data for different precursors. The direct method of fuzzy pattern recognition has been applied to research on earthquake precursors of different kinds. On the basis of the temporal and spatial characteristics of recognized precursors, earthquake hazards in different terms can be estimated. This paper mainly deals with medium-short-term precursors observed in Japan and China.

Monitoring Physiological Variables with Membrane Probes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Janle, Elsa M.

1997-01-01

This project has demonstrated the possibility of using membrane probes in rodents to monitor physiological variables for extended periods of time. The utility of these probes in physiological studies of microgravity has been demonstrated. The feasibility of developing on-line sensors has also been demonstrated and allows for the possibility of developing real-time automated monitoring systems which can be used in ground-base physiological research as well as in research and medical monitoring in space. In addition to space applications these techniques can be extended to medical monitoring in critical care situations on earth as well as facilitating research in many human and animal diseases.