Time-Referenced Effects of an Internal vs. External Focus of Attention on Muscular Activity and Compensatory Variability

PubMed Central

Hossner, Ernst-Joachim; Ehrlenspiel, Felix

2010-01-01

The paralysis-by-analysis phenomenon, i.e., attending to the execution of one's movement impairs performance, has gathered a lot of attention over recent years (see Wulf, 2007, for a review). Explanations of this phenomenon, e.g., the hypotheses of constrained action (Wulf et al., 2001) or of step-by-step execution (Masters, 1992; Beilock et al., 2002), however, do not refer to the level of underlying mechanisms on the level of sensorimotor control. For this purpose, a “nodal-point hypothesis” is presented here with the core assumption that skilled motor behavior is internally based on sensorimotor chains of nodal points, that attending to intermediate nodal points leads to a muscular re-freezing of the motor system at exactly and exclusively these points in time, and that this re-freezing is accompanied by the disruption of compensatory processes, resulting in an overall decrease of motor performance. Two experiments, on lever sequencing and basketball free throws, respectively, are reported that successfully tested these time-referenced predictions, i.e., showing that muscular activity is selectively increased and compensatory variability selectively decreased at movement-related nodal points if these points are in the focus of attention. PMID:21833285

Bayesian dynamic modeling of time series of dengue disease case counts.

PubMed

Martínez-Bello, Daniel Adyro; López-Quílez, Antonio; Torres-Prieto, Alexander

2017-07-01

The aim of this study is to model the association between weekly time series of dengue case counts and meteorological variables, in a high-incidence city of Colombia, applying Bayesian hierarchical dynamic generalized linear models over the period January 2008 to August 2015. Additionally, we evaluate the model's short-term performance for predicting dengue cases. The methodology shows dynamic Poisson log link models including constant or time-varying coefficients for the meteorological variables. Calendar effects were modeled using constant or first- or second-order random walk time-varying coefficients. The meteorological variables were modeled using constant coefficients and first-order random walk time-varying coefficients. We applied Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulations for parameter estimation, and deviance information criterion statistic (DIC) for model selection. We assessed the short-term predictive performance of the selected final model, at several time points within the study period using the mean absolute percentage error. The results showed the best model including first-order random walk time-varying coefficients for calendar trend and first-order random walk time-varying coefficients for the meteorological variables. Besides the computational challenges, interpreting the results implies a complete analysis of the time series of dengue with respect to the parameter estimates of the meteorological effects. We found small values of the mean absolute percentage errors at one or two weeks out-of-sample predictions for most prediction points, associated with low volatility periods in the dengue counts. We discuss the advantages and limitations of the dynamic Poisson models for studying the association between time series of dengue disease and meteorological variables. The key conclusion of the study is that dynamic Poisson models account for the dynamic nature of the variables involved in the modeling of time series of dengue disease, producing useful models for decision-making in public health.

A Comparison of Methods for Estimating Relationships in the Change between Two Time Points for Latent Variables

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Finch, W. Holmes; Shim, Sungok Serena

2018-01-01

Collection and analysis of longitudinal data is an important tool in understanding growth and development over time in a whole range of human endeavors. Ideally, researchers working in the longitudinal framework are able to collect data at more than two points in time, as this will provide them with the potential for a deeper understanding of the…

Accuracy and optimal timing of activity measurements in estimating the absorbed dose of radioiodine in the treatment of Graves' disease

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merrill, S.; Horowitz, J.; Traino, A. C.; Chipkin, S. R.; Hollot, C. V.; Chait, Y.

2011-02-01

Calculation of the therapeutic activity of radioiodine 131I for individualized dosimetry in the treatment of Graves' disease requires an accurate estimate of the thyroid absorbed radiation dose based on a tracer activity administration of 131I. Common approaches (Marinelli-Quimby formula, MIRD algorithm) use, respectively, the effective half-life of radioiodine in the thyroid and the time-integrated activity. Many physicians perform one, two, or at most three tracer dose activity measurements at various times and calculate the required therapeutic activity by ad hoc methods. In this paper, we study the accuracy of estimates of four 'target variables': time-integrated activity coefficient, time of maximum activity, maximum activity, and effective half-life in the gland. Clinical data from 41 patients who underwent 131I therapy for Graves' disease at the University Hospital in Pisa, Italy, are used for analysis. The radioiodine kinetics are described using a nonlinear mixed-effects model. The distributions of the target variables in the patient population are characterized. Using minimum root mean squared error as the criterion, optimal 1-, 2-, and 3-point sampling schedules are determined for estimation of the target variables, and probabilistic bounds are given for the errors under the optimal times. An algorithm is developed for computing the optimal 1-, 2-, and 3-point sampling schedules for the target variables. This algorithm is implemented in a freely available software tool. Taking into consideration 131I effective half-life in the thyroid and measurement noise, the optimal 1-point time for time-integrated activity coefficient is a measurement 1 week following the tracer dose. Additional measurements give only a slight improvement in accuracy.

Periodicity and stability for variable-time impulsive neural networks.

PubMed

Li, Hongfei; Li, Chuandong; Huang, Tingwen

2017-10-01

The paper considers a general neural networks model with variable-time impulses. It is shown that each solution of the system intersects with every discontinuous surface exactly once via several new well-proposed assumptions. Moreover, based on the comparison principle, this paper shows that neural networks with variable-time impulse can be reduced to the corresponding neural network with fixed-time impulses under well-selected conditions. Meanwhile, the fixed-time impulsive systems can be regarded as the comparison system of the variable-time impulsive neural networks. Furthermore, a series of sufficient criteria are derived to ensure the existence and global exponential stability of periodic solution of variable-time impulsive neural networks, and to illustrate the same stability properties between variable-time impulsive neural networks and the fixed-time ones. The new criteria are established by applying Schaefer's fixed point theorem combined with the use of inequality technique. Finally, a numerical example is presented to show the effectiveness of the proposed results. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Combining fixed effects and instrumental variable approaches for estimating the effect of psychosocial job quality on mental health: evidence from 13 waves of a nationally representative cohort study.

PubMed

Milner, Allison; Aitken, Zoe; Kavanagh, Anne; LaMontagne, Anthony D; Pega, Frank; Petrie, Dennis

2017-06-23

Previous studies suggest that poor psychosocial job quality is a risk factor for mental health problems, but they use conventional regression analytic methods that cannot rule out reverse causation, unmeasured time-invariant confounding and reporting bias. This study combines two quasi-experimental approaches to improve causal inference by better accounting for these biases: (i) linear fixed effects regression analysis and (ii) linear instrumental variable analysis. We extract 13 annual waves of national cohort data including 13 260 working-age (18-64 years) employees. The exposure variable is self-reported level of psychosocial job quality. The instruments used are two common workplace entitlements. The outcome variable is the Mental Health Inventory (MHI-5). We adjust for measured time-varying confounders. In the fixed effects regression analysis adjusted for time-varying confounders, a 1-point increase in psychosocial job quality is associated with a 1.28-point improvement in mental health on the MHI-5 scale (95% CI: 1.17, 1.40; P < 0.001). When the fixed effects was combined with the instrumental variable analysis, a 1-point increase psychosocial job quality is related to 1.62-point improvement on the MHI-5 scale (95% CI: -0.24, 3.48; P = 0.088). Our quasi-experimental results provide evidence to confirm job stressors as risk factors for mental ill health using methods that improve causal inference. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Faculty of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

Longitudinal Reliability of Self-Reported Age at Menarche in Adolescent Girls: Variability across Time and Setting

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dorn, Lorah D.; Sontag-Padilla, Lisa M.; Pabst, Stephanie; Tissot, Abbigail; Susman, Elizabeth J.

2013-01-01

Age at menarche is critical in research and clinical settings, yet there is a dearth of studies examining its reliability in adolescents. We examined age at menarche during adolescence, specifically, (a) average method reliability across 3 years, (b) test-retest reliability between time points and methods, (c) intraindividual variability of…

Intrinsic time quantum geometrodynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ita, Eyo Eyo; Soo, Chopin; Yu, Hoi-Lai

2015-08-01

Quantum geometrodynamics with intrinsic time development and momentric variables is presented. An underlying SU(3) group structure at each spatial point regulates the theory. The intrinsic time behavior of the theory is analyzed, together with its ground state and primordial quantum fluctuations. Cotton-York potential dominates at early times when the universe was small; the ground state naturally resolves Penrose's Weyl curvature hypothesis, and thermodynamic and gravitational "arrows of time" point in the same direction. Ricci scalar potential corresponding to Einstein's general relativity emerges as a zero-point energy contribution. A new set of fundamental commutation relations without Planck's constant emerges from the unification of gravitation and quantum mechanics.

Time course of the acute effects of core stabilisation exercise on seated postural control.

PubMed

Lee, Jordan B; Brown, Stephen H M

2017-09-20

Core stabilisation exercises are often promoted for purposes ranging from general fitness to high-performance athletics, and the prevention and rehabilitation of back troubles. These exercises, when performed properly, may have the potential to enhance torso postural awareness and control, yet the potential for achieving immediate gains has not been completely studied. Fourteen healthy young participants performed a single bout of non-fatiguing core stabilisation exercise that consisted of repeated sets of 2 isometric exercises, the side bridge and the four-point contralateral arm-and-leg extension. Seated postural control, using an unstable balance platform on top of a force plate, was assessed before and after exercise, including multiple time points within a 20-minute follow-up period. Nine standard postural control variables were calculated at each time point, including sway displacement and velocity ranges, root mean squares and cumulative path length. Statistical analysis showed that none of the postural control variables were significantly different at any time point following completion of core stabilisation exercise. Thus, we conclude that a single bout of acute core stabilisation exercise is insufficient to immediately improve seated trunk postural control in young healthy individuals.

A catalog of rules, variables, and definitions applied to accelerometer data in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 2003-2006.

PubMed

Tudor-Locke, Catrine; Camhi, Sarah M; Troiano, Richard P

2012-01-01

The National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) included accelerometry in the 2003-2006 data collection cycles. Researchers have used these data since their release in 2007, but the data have not been consistently treated, examined, or reported. The objective of this study was to aggregate data from studies using NHANES accelerometry data and to catalogue study decision rules, derived variables, and cut point definitions to facilitate a more uniform approach to these data. We conducted a PubMed search of English-language articles published (or indicated as forthcoming) from January 2007 through December 2011. Our initial search yielded 74 articles, plus 1 article that was not indexed in PubMed. After excluding 21 articles, we extracted and tabulated details on 54 studies to permit comparison among studies. The 54 articles represented various descriptive, methodological, and inferential analyses. Although some decision rules for treating data (eg, criteria for minimal wear-time) were consistently applied, cut point definitions used for accelerometer-derived variables (eg, time spent in various intensities of physical activity) were especially diverse. Unique research questions may require equally unique analytical approaches; some inconsistency in approaches must be tolerated if scientific discovery is to be encouraged. This catalog provides a starting point for researchers to consider relevant and/or comparable accelerometer decision rules, derived variables, and cut point definitions for their own research questions.

Remotely-sensed, nocturnal, dew point correlates with malaria transmission in Southern Province, Zambia: a time-series study

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Plasmodium falciparum transmission has decreased significantly in Zambia in the last decade. The malaria transmission is influenced by environmental variables. Incorporation of environmental variables in models of malaria transmission likely improves model fit and predicts probable trends in malaria disease. This work is based on the hypothesis that remotely-sensed environmental factors, including nocturnal dew point, are associated with malaria transmission and sustain foci of transmission during the low transmission season in the Southern Province of Zambia. Methods Thirty-eight rural health centres in Southern Province, Zambia were divided into three zones based on transmission patterns. Correlations between weekly malaria cases and remotely-sensed nocturnal dew point, nocturnal land surface temperature as well as vegetation indices and rainfall were evaluated in time-series analyses from 2012 week 19 to 2013 week 36. Zonal as well as clinic-based, multivariate, autoregressive, integrated, moving average (ARIMAX) models implementing environmental variables were developed to model transmission in 2011 week 19 to 2012 week 18 and forecast transmission in 2013 week 37 to week 41. Results During the dry, low transmission season significantly higher vegetation indices, nocturnal land surface temperature and nocturnal dew point were associated with the areas of higher transmission. Environmental variables improved ARIMAX models. Dew point and normalized differentiated vegetation index were significant predictors and improved all zonal transmission models. In the high-transmission zone, this was also seen for land surface temperature. Clinic models were improved by adding dew point and land surface temperature as well as normalized differentiated vegetation index. The mean average error of prediction for ARIMAX models ranged from 0.7 to 33.5%. Forecasts of malaria incidence were valid for three out of five rural health centres; however, with poor results at the zonal level. Conclusions In this study, the fit of ARIMAX models improves when environmental variables are included. There is a significant association of remotely-sensed nocturnal dew point with malaria transmission. Interestingly, dew point might be one of the factors sustaining malaria transmission in areas of general aridity during the dry season. PMID:24927747

Remotely-sensed, nocturnal, dew point correlates with malaria transmission in Southern Province, Zambia: a time-series study.

PubMed

Nygren, David; Stoyanov, Cristina; Lewold, Clemens; Månsson, Fredrik; Miller, John; Kamanga, Aniset; Shiff, Clive J

2014-06-13

Plasmodium falciparum transmission has decreased significantly in Zambia in the last decade. The malaria transmission is influenced by environmental variables. Incorporation of environmental variables in models of malaria transmission likely improves model fit and predicts probable trends in malaria disease. This work is based on the hypothesis that remotely-sensed environmental factors, including nocturnal dew point, are associated with malaria transmission and sustain foci of transmission during the low transmission season in the Southern Province of Zambia. Thirty-eight rural health centres in Southern Province, Zambia were divided into three zones based on transmission patterns. Correlations between weekly malaria cases and remotely-sensed nocturnal dew point, nocturnal land surface temperature as well as vegetation indices and rainfall were evaluated in time-series analyses from 2012 week 19 to 2013 week 36. Zonal as well as clinic-based, multivariate, autoregressive, integrated, moving average (ARIMAX) models implementing environmental variables were developed to model transmission in 2011 week 19 to 2012 week 18 and forecast transmission in 2013 week 37 to week 41. During the dry, low transmission season significantly higher vegetation indices, nocturnal land surface temperature and nocturnal dew point were associated with the areas of higher transmission. Environmental variables improved ARIMAX models. Dew point and normalized differentiated vegetation index were significant predictors and improved all zonal transmission models. In the high-transmission zone, this was also seen for land surface temperature. Clinic models were improved by adding dew point and land surface temperature as well as normalized differentiated vegetation index. The mean average error of prediction for ARIMAX models ranged from 0.7 to 33.5%. Forecasts of malaria incidence were valid for three out of five rural health centres; however, with poor results at the zonal level. In this study, the fit of ARIMAX models improves when environmental variables are included. There is a significant association of remotely-sensed nocturnal dew point with malaria transmission. Interestingly, dew point might be one of the factors sustaining malaria transmission in areas of general aridity during the dry season.

Social Cognitive Theory Predictors of Exercise Behavior in Endometrial Cancer Survivors

PubMed Central

Basen-Engquist, Karen; Carmack, Cindy L.; Li, Yisheng; Brown, Jubilee; Jhingran, Anuja; Hughes, Daniel C.; Perkins, Heidi Y.; Scruggs, Stacie; Harrison, Carol; Baum, George; Bodurka, Diane C.; Waters, Andrew

2014-01-01

Objective This study evaluated whether social cognitive theory (SCT) variables, as measured by questionnaire and ecological momentary assessment (EMA), predicted exercise in endometrial cancer survivors. Methods One hundred post-treatment endometrial cancer survivors received a 6-month home-based exercise intervention. EMAs were conducted using hand-held computers for 10- to 12-day periods every 2 months. Participants rated morning self-efficacy and positive and negative outcome expectations using the computer, recorded exercise information in real time and at night, and wore accelerometers. At the midpoint of each assessment period participants completed SCT questionnaires. Using linear mixed-effects models, we tested whether morning SCT variables predicted minutes of exercise that day (Question 1) and whether exercise minutes at time point Tj could be predicted by questionnaire measures of SCT variables from time point Tj-1 (Question 2). Results Morning self-efficacy significantly predicted that day’s exercise minutes (p<.0001). Morning positive outcome expectations was also associated with exercise minutes (p=0.0003), but the relationship was attenuated when self-efficacy was included in the model (p=0.4032). Morning negative outcome expectations was not associated with exercise minutes. Of the questionnaire measures of SCT variables, only exercise self-efficacy predicted exercise at the next time point (p=0.003). Conclusions The consistency of the relationship between self-efficacy and exercise minutes over short (same day) and longer (Tj to Tj-1) time periods provides support for a causal relationship. The strength of the relationship between morning self-efficacy and exercise minutes suggest that real-time interventions that target daily variation in self-efficacy may benefit endometrial cancer survivors’ exercise adherence. PMID:23437853

Software Design Document MCC CSCI (1). Volume 2, Sections 2.18.1 - 2.22

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-06-01

tparam pointer to long mnt +Standard C type. _____________________ Internal Variables _____________ Variable Type Where Typedef Declared td ...ist points to the last transaction pointer on the TimeList. The function call is AssocAddToStart~ffimieList( td , startTimeList, endTimeList). Table 2.20...42 describes the parameters used by this function. Parameters Parameter Type______ Where Typedef Declared td pointer to /simnetllibsrc/libassoc/assoc

Homogenising time series: Beliefs, dogmas and facts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Domonkos, P.

2010-09-01

For obtaining reliable information about climate change and climate variability the use of high quality data series is essentially important, and one basic tool of quality improvements is the statistical homogenisation of observed time series. In the recent decades large number of homogenisation methods has been developed, but the real effects of their application on time series are still not known entirely. The ongoing COST HOME project (COST ES0601) is devoted to reveal the real impacts of homogenisation methods more detailed and with higher confidence than earlier. As part of the COST activity, a benchmark dataset was built whose characteristics approach well the characteristics of real networks of observed time series. This dataset offers much better opportunity than ever to test the wide variety of homogenisation methods, and analyse the real effects of selected theoretical recommendations. The author believes that several old theoretical rules have to be re-evaluated. Some examples of the hot questions, a) Statistically detected change-points can be accepted only with the confirmation of metadata information? b) Do semi-hierarchic algorithms for detecting multiple change-points in time series function effectively in practise? c) Is it good to limit the spatial comparison of candidate series with up to five other series in the neighbourhood? Empirical results - those from the COST benchmark, and other experiments too - show that real observed time series usually include several inhomogeneities of different sizes. Small inhomogeneities seem like part of the climatic variability, thus the pure application of classic theory that change-points of observed time series can be found and corrected one-by-one is impossible. However, after homogenisation the linear trends, seasonal changes and long-term fluctuations of time series are usually much closer to the reality, than in raw time series. The developers and users of homogenisation methods have to bear in mind that the eventual purpose of homogenisation is not to find change-points, but to have the observed time series with statistical properties those characterise well the climate change and climate variability.

Space Technology 5 Multi-Point Observations of Temporal Variability of Field-Aligned Currents

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Le, Guan; Wang, Yongli; Slavin, James A.; Strangeway, Robert J.

2008-01-01

Space Technology 5 (ST5) is a three micro-satellite constellation deployed into a 300 x 4500 km, dawn-dusk, sun-synchronous polar orbit from March 22 to June 21, 2006, for technology validations. In this paper, we present a study of the temporal variability of field-aligned currents using multi-point magnetic field measurements from ST5. The data demonstrate that meso-scale current structures are commonly embedded within large-scale field-aligned current sheets. The meso-scale current structures are very dynamic with highly variable current density and/or polarity in time scales of approximately 10 min. They exhibit large temporal variations during both quiet and disturbed times in such time scales. On the other hand, the data also shown that the time scales for the currents to be relatively stable are approximately 1 min for meso-scale currents and approximately 10 min for large scale current sheets. These temporal features are obviously associated with dynamic variations of their particle carriers (mainly electrons) as they respond to the variations of the parallel electric field in auroral acceleration region. The characteristic time scales for the temporal variability of meso-scale field-aligned currents are found to be consistent with those of auroral parallel electric field.

Space Technology 5 Multi-point Observations of Field-aligned Currents: Temporal Variability of Meso-Scale Structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Le, Guan; Wang, Yongli; Slavin, James A.; Strangeway, Robert J.

2007-01-01

Space Technology 5 (ST5) is a three micro-satellite constellation deployed into a 300 x 4500 km, dawn-dusk, sun-synchronous polar orbit from March 22 to June 21, 2006, for technology validations. In this paper, we present a study of the temporal variability of field-aligned currents using multi-point magnetic field measurements from ST5. The data demonstrate that meso-scale current structures are commonly embedded within large-scale field-aligned current sheets. The meso-scale current structures are very dynamic with highly variable current density and/or polarity in time scales of - 10 min. They exhibit large temporal variations during both quiet and disturbed times in such time scales. On the other hand, the data also shown that the time scales for the currents to be relatively stable are approx. 1 min for meso-scale currents and approx. 10 min for large scale current sheets. These temporal features are obviously associated with dynamic variations of their particle carriers (mainly electrons) as they respond to the variations of the parallel electric field in auroral acceleration region. The characteristic time scales for the temporal variability of meso-scale field-aligned currents are found to be consistent with those of auroral parallel electric field.

Dynamical topology and statistical properties of spatiotemporal chaos.

PubMed

Zhuang, Quntao; Gao, Xun; Ouyang, Qi; Wang, Hongli

2012-12-01

For spatiotemporal chaos described by partial differential equations, there are generally locations where the dynamical variable achieves its local extremum or where the time partial derivative of the variable vanishes instantaneously. To a large extent, the location and movement of these topologically special points determine the qualitative structure of the disordered states. We analyze numerically statistical properties of the topologically special points in one-dimensional spatiotemporal chaos. The probability distribution functions for the number of point, the lifespan, and the distance covered during their lifetime are obtained from numerical simulations. Mathematically, we establish a probabilistic model to describe the dynamics of these topologically special points. In spite of the different definitions in different spatiotemporal chaos, the dynamics of these special points can be described in a uniform approach.

Bayesian dynamic modeling of time series of dengue disease case counts

PubMed Central

López-Quílez, Antonio; Torres-Prieto, Alexander

2017-01-01

The aim of this study is to model the association between weekly time series of dengue case counts and meteorological variables, in a high-incidence city of Colombia, applying Bayesian hierarchical dynamic generalized linear models over the period January 2008 to August 2015. Additionally, we evaluate the model’s short-term performance for predicting dengue cases. The methodology shows dynamic Poisson log link models including constant or time-varying coefficients for the meteorological variables. Calendar effects were modeled using constant or first- or second-order random walk time-varying coefficients. The meteorological variables were modeled using constant coefficients and first-order random walk time-varying coefficients. We applied Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulations for parameter estimation, and deviance information criterion statistic (DIC) for model selection. We assessed the short-term predictive performance of the selected final model, at several time points within the study period using the mean absolute percentage error. The results showed the best model including first-order random walk time-varying coefficients for calendar trend and first-order random walk time-varying coefficients for the meteorological variables. Besides the computational challenges, interpreting the results implies a complete analysis of the time series of dengue with respect to the parameter estimates of the meteorological effects. We found small values of the mean absolute percentage errors at one or two weeks out-of-sample predictions for most prediction points, associated with low volatility periods in the dengue counts. We discuss the advantages and limitations of the dynamic Poisson models for studying the association between time series of dengue disease and meteorological variables. The key conclusion of the study is that dynamic Poisson models account for the dynamic nature of the variables involved in the modeling of time series of dengue disease, producing useful models for decision-making in public health. PMID:28671941

Time-Structured and Net Intraindividual Variability: Tools for Examining the Development of Dynamic Characteristics and Processes

PubMed Central

Ram, Nilam; Gerstorf, Denis

2009-01-01

The study of intraindividual variability is the study of fluctuations, oscillations, adaptations, and “noise” in behavioral outcomes that manifest on micro-time scales. This paper provides a descriptive frame for the combined study of intraindividual variability and aging/development. At the conceptual level, we highlight that the study of intraindividual variability provides access to dynamic characteristics – construct-level descriptions of individuals' capacities for change (e.g., lability), and dynamic processes – the systematic changes individuals' exhibit in response to endogenous and exogenous influences (e.g., regulation). At the methodological level, we review how quantifications of net intraindividual variability (e.g., iSD) and models of time-structured intraindividual variability (e.g., time-series) are being used to measure and describe dynamic characteristics and processes. At the research design level, we point to the benefits of measurement burst study designs, wherein data are obtained across multiple time scales, for the study of development. PMID:20025395

Implementation of Point-of-Care Diagnostics Leads to Variable Uptake of Syphilis, Anemia and CD4+ T-Cell Count Testing in Rural Maternal and Child Health Clinics.

PubMed

De Schacht, Caroline; Lucas, Carlota; Sitoe, Nádia; Machekano, Rhoderick; Chongo, Patrina; Temmerman, Marleen; Tobaiwa, Ocean; Guay, Laura; Kassaye, Seble; Jani, Ilesh V

2015-01-01

Anemia, syphilis and HIV are high burden diseases among pregnant women in sub-Saharan Africa. A quasi-experimental study was conducted in four health facilities in Southern Mozambique to evaluate the effect of point-of-care technologies for hemoglobin quantification, syphilis testing and CD4+ T-cell enumeration performed within maternal and child health services on testing and treatment coverage, and assessing acceptability by health workers. Demographic and testing data on women attending first antenatal care services were extracted from existing records, before (2011; n = 865) and after (2012; n = 808) introduction of point-of-care testing. Study outcomes per health facility were compared using z-tests (categorical variables) and Wilcoxon rank-sum test (continuous variables), while inverse variance weights were used to adjust for possible cluster effects in the pooled analysis. A structured acceptability-assessment interview was conducted with health workers before (n = 22) and after (n = 19). After implementation of point-of-care testing, there was no significant change in uptake of overall hemoglobin screening (67.9% to 83.0%; p = 0.229), syphilis screening (80.8% to 87.0%; p = 0.282) and CD4+ T-cell testing (84.9% to 83.5%; p = 0.930). Initiation of antiretroviral therapy for treatment eligible women was similar in the weighted analysis before and after, with variability among the sites. Time from HIV diagnosis to treatment initiation decreased (median of 44 days to 17 days; p<0.0001). A generally good acceptability for point-of-care testing was seen among health workers. Point-of-care CD4+ T-cell enumeration resulted in a decreased time to initiation of antiretroviral therapy among treatment eligible women, without significant increase in testing coverage. Overall hemoglobin and syphilis screening increased. Despite the perception that point-of-care technologies increase access to health services, the variability in results indicate the potential for detrimental effects in some settings. Local context needs to be considered and services restructured to accommodate innovative technologies in order to improve service delivery to expectant mothers.

Extinction-Induced Variability in Human Behavior

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kinloch, Jennifer M.; Foster, T. Mary; McEwan, James S. A.

2009-01-01

Participants earned points by pressing a computer space bar (Experiment 1) or forming rectangles on the screen with the mouse (Experiment 2) under differential-reinforcement-of-low-rate schedules, followed by extinction. Variability in interresponse time (the contingent dimension) increased during extinction, as for Morgan and Lee (1996);…

Preadmission Predictors of On-time Graduation in a Doctor of Pharmacy Program.

PubMed

Allen, Rondall E; Diaz, Carroll; Gant, Kisha; Taylor, Ashley; Onor, Ifeanyi

2016-04-25

Objective. To determine which preadmission variables or combination of variables are able to predict on-time graduation in a doctor of pharmacy program. Methods. Transcripts and student files were reviewed for 460 students who entered the college between 2007 and 2009. Results. The preadmission variables with significant correlations to on-time graduation included having a prior degree, student type, the number of unsatisfactory grades (nonscience and math-science courses, and the combination), prepharmacy cumulative grade point average (GPA), and math-science GPA. Of these variables, the significant predictors of on-time graduation were prior degree, the presence of no unsatisfactory grades in nonscience courses, and prepharmacy cumulative GPA. Conclusion. Having a prior degree, lack of unsatisfactory grades in nonscience courses, and prepharmacy GPA were identified as significant predictors of on-time graduation.

Preadmission Predictors of On-time Graduation in a Doctor of Pharmacy Program

PubMed Central

Diaz, Carroll; Gant, Kisha; Taylor, Ashley; Onor, Ifeanyi

2016-01-01

Objective. To determine which preadmission variables or combination of variables are able to predict on-time graduation in a doctor of pharmacy program. Methods. Transcripts and student files were reviewed for 460 students who entered the college between 2007 and 2009. Results. The preadmission variables with significant correlations to on-time graduation included having a prior degree, student type, the number of unsatisfactory grades (nonscience and math-science courses, and the combination), prepharmacy cumulative grade point average (GPA), and math-science GPA. Of these variables, the significant predictors of on-time graduation were prior degree, the presence of no unsatisfactory grades in nonscience courses, and prepharmacy cumulative GPA. Conclusion. Having a prior degree, lack of unsatisfactory grades in nonscience courses, and prepharmacy GPA were identified as significant predictors of on-time graduation. PMID:27170814

[Correlation between long time systolic blood pressure variability and short time systolic blood pressure in aged population].

PubMed

An, Shasha; Zheng, Xiaoming; Li, Zhifang; Wang, Yang; Wu, Yuntao; Zhang, Wenyan; Zhao, Haiyan; Wu, Aiping; Wang, Ruixia; Tao, Jie; Gao, Xinying; Wu, Shouling

2015-11-01

To investigate the correlation between long time systolic blood pressure variability(SBPV)and short time SBPV in aged population. A total of 752 subjects aged ≥60 years of Kailuan Group who took part in 2006-2007, 2008-2009, 2010-2011 and 2012-2013 health examination were included by cluster sampling method.Long time SBPV was calculated by standard deviation of mean systolic blood pressure measured in 2006-2007, 2008-2009, 2010-2011 and 2012-2013, standard deviation represents short time systolic blood pressure which is derived from 24 hour ambulatory blood pressure monitoring. The observation population was divided into three groups according to the third tertiles of the time systolic blood pressure variability: the first point(<9.09 mmHg (1 mmHg=0.133 kPa)), second point (≥9.09 mmHg, and <14.29 mmHg), and third point (≥14.29 mmHg). Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to analyze the correlation between long time systolic blood pressure variability and short time systolic blood pressure. (1) The participants' age were (67.0±5.7) years old (284 women). (2) The 24 hours and daytime SSD were (14.7±4.0) mmHg, (14.7±3.5) mmHg, (15.7±4.4) mmHg (P=0.010) and (14.1±4.4) mmHg, (14.2±3.5) mmHg and (15.4±4.6) mmHg (P<0.001) according to the tertiles of long time systolic blood pressure variability, respectively, nighttime SSD were (12.0±4.4) mmHg, (11.8±4.8) mmHg and (11.9±4.9) mmHg (P=0.900). (3) Multiple logistic regression analysis showed that the tertiles of long time SSD was the risk factor for increasing daytime SSD>14.00 mmHg (OR=1.51, 95%CI: 1.03-2.23, P=0.037), but not a risk factor for increasing 24 hours SSD>14.41 mmHg (OR=1.10, 95%CI: 0.75-1.61, P=0.639) and nighttime SSD>11.11 mmHg (OR=0.98, 95%CI: 0.67-1.42, P=0.899). Increased long time SBPV is a risk factor for increasing daytime SBPV.

[Associations of the Employment Status during the First 2 Years Following Medical Rehabilitation and Long Term Occupational Trajectories: Implications for Outcome Measurement].

PubMed

Holstiege, J; Kaluscha, R; Jankowiak, S; Krischak, G

2017-02-01

Study Objectives: The aim was to investigate the predictive value of the employment status measured in the 6 th , 12 th , 18 th and 24 th month after medical rehabilitation for long-term employment trajectories during 4 years. Methods: A retrospective study was conducted based on a 20%-sample of all patients receiving inpatient rehabilitation funded by the German pension fund. Patients aged <62 years who were treated due to musculoskeletal, cardiovascular or psychosomatic disorders during the years 2002-2005 were included and followed for 4 consecutive years. The predictive value of the employment status in 4 predefined months after discharge (6 th , 12 th , 18 th and 24 th month), for the total number of months in employment in 4 years following rehabilitative treatment was analyzed using multiple linear regression. Per time point, separate regression analyses were conducted, including the employment status (employed vs. unemployed) at the respective point in time as explanatory variable, besides a standard set of additional prognostic variables. Results: A total of 252 591 patients were eligible for study inclusion. The level of explained variance of the regression models increased with the point in time used to measure the employment status, included as explanatory variable. Overall the R²-measure increased by 30% from the regression model that included the employment status in the 6 th month (R²=0.60) to the model that included the work status in the 24 th month (R²=0.78). Conclusion: The degree of accuracy in the prognosis of long-term employment biographies increases with the point in time used to measure employment in the first 2 years following rehabilitation. These findings should be taken into consideration for the predefinition of time points used to measure the employment status in future studies. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Creative use of pilot points to address site and regional scale heterogeneity in a variable-density model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dausman, Alyssa M.; Doherty, John; Langevin, Christian D.

2010-01-01

Pilot points for parameter estimation were creatively used to address heterogeneity at both the well field and regional scales in a variable-density groundwater flow and solute transport model designed to test multiple hypotheses for upward migration of fresh effluent injected into a highly transmissive saline carbonate aquifer. Two sets of pilot points were used within in multiple model layers, with one set of inner pilot points (totaling 158) having high spatial density to represent hydraulic conductivity at the site, while a second set of outer points (totaling 36) of lower spatial density was used to represent hydraulic conductivity further from the site. Use of a lower spatial density outside the site allowed (1) the total number of pilot points to be reduced while maintaining flexibility to accommodate heterogeneity at different scales, and (2) development of a model with greater areal extent in order to simulate proper boundary conditions that have a limited effect on the area of interest. The parameters associated with the inner pilot points were log transformed hydraulic conductivity multipliers of the conductivity field obtained by interpolation from outer pilot points. The use of this dual inner-outer scale parameterization (with inner parameters constituting multipliers for outer parameters) allowed smooth transition of hydraulic conductivity from the site scale, where greater spatial variability of hydraulic properties exists, to the regional scale where less spatial variability was necessary for model calibration. While the model is highly parameterized to accommodate potential aquifer heterogeneity, the total number of pilot points is kept at a minimum to enable reasonable calibration run times.

Robust estimation of pulse wave transit time using group delay.

PubMed

Meloni, Antonella; Zymeski, Heather; Pepe, Alessia; Lombardi, Massimo; Wood, John C

2014-03-01

To evaluate the efficiency of a novel transit time (Δt) estimation method from cardiovascular magnetic resonance flow curves. Flow curves were estimated from phase contrast images of 30 patients. Our method (TT-GD: transit time group delay) operates in the frequency domain and models the ascending aortic waveform as an input passing through a discrete-component "filter," producing the observed descending aortic waveform. The GD of the filter represents the average time delay (Δt) across individual frequency bands of the input. This method was compared with two previously described time-domain methods: TT-point using the half-maximum of the curves and TT-wave using cross-correlation. High temporal resolution flow images were studied at multiple downsampling rates to study the impact of differences in temporal resolution. Mean Δts obtained with the three methods were comparable. The TT-GD method was the most robust to reduced temporal resolution. While the TT-GD and the TT-wave produced comparable results for velocity and flow waveforms, the TT-point resulted in significant shorter Δts when calculated from velocity waveforms (difference: 1.8±2.7 msec; coefficient of variability: 8.7%). The TT-GD method was the most reproducible, with an intraobserver variability of 3.4% and an interobserver variability of 3.7%. Compared to the traditional TT-point and TT-wave methods, the TT-GD approach was more robust to the choice of temporal resolution, waveform type, and observer. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Which skills and factors better predict winning and losing in high-level men's volleyball?

PubMed

Peña, Javier; Rodríguez-Guerra, Jorge; Buscà, Bernat; Serra, Núria

2013-09-01

The aim of this study was to determine which skills and factors better predicted the outcomes of regular season volleyball matches in the Spanish "Superliga" and were significant for obtaining positive results in the game. The study sample consisted of 125 matches played during the 2010-11 Spanish men's first division volleyball championship. Matches were played by 12 teams composed of 148 players from 17 different nations from October 2010 to March 2011. The variables analyzed were the result of the game, team category, home/away court factors, points obtained in the break point phase, number of service errors, number of service aces, number of reception errors, percentage of positive receptions, percentage of perfect receptions, reception efficiency, number of attack errors, number of blocked attacks, attack points, percentage of attack points, attack efficiency, and number of blocks performed by both teams participating in the match. The results showed that the variables of team category, points obtained in the break point phase, number of reception errors, and number of blocked attacks by the opponent were significant predictors of winning or losing the matches. Odds ratios indicated that the odds of winning a volleyball match were 6.7 times greater for the teams belonging to higher rankings and that every additional point in Complex II increased the odds of winning a match by 1.5 times. Every reception and blocked ball error decreased the possibility of winning by 0.6 and 0.7 times, respectively.

Optimisation of gelatin extraction from Unicorn leatherjacket (Aluterus monoceros) skin waste: response surface approach.

PubMed

Hanjabam, Mandakini Devi; Kannaiyan, Sathish Kumar; Kamei, Gaihiamngam; Jakhar, Jitender Kumar; Chouksey, Mithlesh Kumar; Gudipati, Venkateshwarlu

2015-02-01

Physical properties of gelatin extracted from Unicorn leatherjacket (Aluterus monoceros) skin, which is generated as a waste from fish processing industries, were optimised using Response Surface Methodology (RSM). A Box-Behnken design was used to study the combined effects of three independent variables, namely phosphoric acid (H3PO4) concentration (0.15-0.25 M), extraction temperature (40-50 °C) and extraction time (4-12 h) on different responses like yield, gel strength and melting point of gelatin. The optimum conditions derived by RSM for the yield (10.58%) were 0.2 M H3PO4 for 9.01 h of extraction time and hot water extraction of 45.83 °C. The maximum achieved gel strength and melting point was 138.54 g and 22.61 °C respectively. Extraction time was found to be most influencing variable and had a positive coefficient on yield and negative coefficient on gel strength and melting point. The results indicated that Unicorn leatherjacket skins can be a source of gelatin having mild gel strength and melting point.

QUANTIFYING UNCERTAINTY IN NET PRIMARY PRODUCTION MEASUREMENTS

EPA Science Inventory

Net primary production (NPP, e.g., g m-2 yr-1), a key ecosystem attribute, is estimated from a combination of other variables, e.g. standing crop biomass at several points in time, each of which is subject to errors in their measurement. These errors propagate as the variables a...

Developing Real-Time Emissions Estimates for Enhanced Air Quality Forecasting

EPA Science Inventory

Exploring the relationship between ambient temperature, energy demand, and electric generating unit point source emissions and potential techniques for incorporating real-time information on the modulating effects of these variables using the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast Visibility Uni...

Modelling the association of dengue fever cases with temperature and relative humidity in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia-A generalised linear model with break-point analysis.

PubMed

Alkhaldy, Ibrahim

2017-04-01

The aim of this study was to examine the role of environmental factors in the temporal distribution of dengue fever in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. The relationship between dengue fever cases and climatic factors such as relative humidity and temperature was investigated during 2006-2009 to determine whether there is any relationship between dengue fever cases and climatic parameters in Jeddah City, Saudi Arabia. A generalised linear model (GLM) with a break-point was used to determine how different levels of temperature and relative humidity affected the distribution of the number of cases of dengue fever. Break-point analysis was performed to modelled the effect before and after a break-point (change point) in the explanatory parameters under various scenarios. Akaike information criterion (AIC) and cross validation (CV) were used to assess the performance of the models. The results showed that maximum temperature and mean relative humidity are most probably the better predictors of the number of dengue fever cases in Jeddah. In this study three scenarios were modelled: no time lag, 1-week lag and 2-weeks lag. Among these scenarios, the 1-week lag model using mean relative humidity as an explanatory variable showed better performance. This study showed a clear relationship between the meteorological variables and the number of dengue fever cases in Jeddah. The results also demonstrated that meteorological variables can be successfully used to estimate the number of dengue fever cases for a given period of time. Break-point analysis provides further insight into the association between meteorological parameters and dengue fever cases by dividing the meteorological parameters into certain break-points. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Two-point spectral model for variable density homogeneous turbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pal, Nairita; Kurien, Susan; Clark, Timothy; Aslangil, Denis; Livescu, Daniel

2017-11-01

We present a comparison between a two-point spectral closure model for buoyancy-driven variable density homogeneous turbulence, with Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS) data of the same system. We wish to understand how well a suitable spectral model might capture variable density effects and the transition to turbulence from an initially quiescent state. Following the BHRZ model developed by Besnard et al. (1990), the spectral model calculation computes the time evolution of two-point correlations of the density fluctuations with the momentum and the specific-volume. These spatial correlations are expressed as function of wavenumber k and denoted by a (k) and b (k) , quantifying mass flux and turbulent mixing respectively. We assess the accuracy of the model, relative to a full DNS of the complete hydrodynamical equations, using a and b as metrics. Work at LANL was performed under the auspices of the U.S. DOE Contract No. DE-AC52-06NA25396.

The a(3) Scheme--A Fourth-Order Space-Time Flux-Conserving and Neutrally Stable CESE Solver

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chang, Sin-Chung

2008-01-01

The CESE development is driven by a belief that a solver should (i) enforce conservation laws in both space and time, and (ii) be built from a non-dissipative (i.e., neutrally stable) core scheme so that the numerical dissipation can be controlled effectively. To initiate a systematic CESE development of high order schemes, in this paper we provide a thorough discussion on the structure, consistency, stability, phase error, and accuracy of a new 4th-order space-time flux-conserving and neutrally stable CESE solver of an 1D scalar advection equation. The space-time stencil of this two-level explicit scheme is formed by one point at the upper time level and three points at the lower time level. Because it is associated with three independent mesh variables (the numerical analogues of the dependent variable and its 1st-order and 2ndorder spatial derivatives, respectively) and three equations per mesh point, the new scheme is referred to as the a(3) scheme. Through the von Neumann analysis, it is shown that the a(3) scheme is stable if and only if the Courant number is less than 0.5. Moreover, it is established numerically that the a(3) scheme is 4th-order accurate.

3D facial landmarks: Inter-operator variability of manual annotation

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Manual annotation of landmarks is a known source of variance, which exist in all fields of medical imaging, influencing the accuracy and interpretation of the results. However, the variability of human facial landmarks is only sparsely addressed in the current literature as opposed to e.g. the research fields of orthodontics and cephalometrics. We present a full facial 3D annotation procedure and a sparse set of manually annotated landmarks, in effort to reduce operator time and minimize the variance. Method Facial scans from 36 voluntary unrelated blood donors from the Danish Blood Donor Study was randomly chosen. Six operators twice manually annotated 73 anatomical and pseudo-landmarks, using a three-step scheme producing a dense point correspondence map. We analyzed both the intra- and inter-operator variability, using mixed-model ANOVA. We then compared four sparse sets of landmarks in order to construct a dense correspondence map of the 3D scans with a minimum point variance. Results The anatomical landmarks of the eye were associated with the lowest variance, particularly the center of the pupils. Whereas points of the jaw and eyebrows have the highest variation. We see marginal variability in regards to intra-operator and portraits. Using a sparse set of landmarks (n=14), that capture the whole face, the dense point mean variance was reduced from 1.92 to 0.54 mm. Conclusion The inter-operator variability was primarily associated with particular landmarks, where more leniently landmarks had the highest variability. The variables embedded in the portray and the reliability of a trained operator did only have marginal influence on the variability. Further, using 14 of the annotated landmarks we were able to reduced the variability and create a dense correspondences mesh to capture all facial features. PMID:25306436

Stages in learning motor synergies: a view based on the equilibrium-point hypothesis.

PubMed

Latash, Mark L

2010-10-01

This review describes a novel view on stages in motor learning based on recent developments of the notion of synergies, the uncontrolled manifold hypothesis, and the equilibrium-point hypothesis (referent configuration) that allow to merge these notions into a single scheme of motor control. The principle of abundance and the principle of minimal final action form the foundation for analyses of natural motor actions performed by redundant sets of elements. Two main stages of motor learning are introduced corresponding to (1) discovery and strengthening of motor synergies stabilizing salient performance variable(s) and (2) their weakening when other aspects of motor performance are optimized. The first stage may be viewed as consisting of two steps, the elaboration of an adequate referent configuration trajectory and the elaboration of multi-joint (multi-muscle) synergies stabilizing the referent configuration trajectory. Both steps are expected to lead to more variance in the space of elemental variables that is compatible with a desired time profile of the salient performance variable ("good variability"). Adjusting control to other aspects of performance during the second stage (for example, esthetics, energy expenditure, time, fatigue, etc.) may lead to a drop in the "good variability". Experimental support for the suggested scheme is reviewed. Copyright © 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Last millennium Northern Hemisphere summer temperatures from tree rings: Part II, spatially resolved reconstructions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anchukaitis, Kevin J.; Wilson, Rob; Briffa, Keith R.; Büntgen, Ulf; Cook, Edward R.; D'Arrigo, Rosanne; Davi, Nicole; Esper, Jan; Frank, David; Gunnarson, Björn E.; Hegerl, Gabi; Helama, Samuli; Klesse, Stefan; Krusic, Paul J.; Linderholm, Hans W.; Myglan, Vladimir; Osborn, Timothy J.; Zhang, Peng; Rydval, Milos; Schneider, Lea; Schurer, Andrew; Wiles, Greg; Zorita, Eduardo

2017-05-01

Climate field reconstructions from networks of tree-ring proxy data can be used to characterize regional-scale climate changes, reveal spatial anomaly patterns associated with atmospheric circulation changes, radiative forcing, and large-scale modes of ocean-atmosphere variability, and provide spatiotemporal targets for climate model comparison and evaluation. Here we use a multiproxy network of tree-ring chronologies to reconstruct spatially resolved warm season (May-August) mean temperatures across the extratropical Northern Hemisphere (40-90°N) using Point-by-Point Regression (PPR). The resulting annual maps of temperature anomalies (750-1988 CE) reveal a consistent imprint of volcanism, with 96% of reconstructed grid points experiencing colder conditions following eruptions. Solar influences are detected at the bicentennial (de Vries) frequency, although at other time scales the influence of insolation variability is weak. Approximately 90% of reconstructed grid points show warmer temperatures during the Medieval Climate Anomaly when compared to the Little Ice Age, although the magnitude varies spatially across the hemisphere. Estimates of field reconstruction skill through time and over space can guide future temporal extension and spatial expansion of the proxy network.

Variables associated with detection probability, detection latency, and behavioral responses of Golden-winged Warblers (Vermivora chrysoptera)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Aldinger, Kyle R.; Wood, Petra B.

2015-01-01

Detection probability during point counts and its associated variables are important considerations for bird population monitoring and have implications for conservation planning by influencing population estimates. During 2008–2009, we evaluated variables hypothesized to be associated with detection probability, detection latency, and behavioral responses of male Golden-winged Warblers in pastures in the Monongahela National Forest, West Virginia, USA. This is the first study of male Golden-winged Warbler detection probability, detection latency, or behavioral response based on point-count sampling with known territory locations and identities for all males. During 3-min passive point counts, detection probability decreased as distance to a male's territory and time since sunrise increased. During 3-min point counts with playback, detection probability decreased as distance to a male's territory increased, but remained constant as time since sunrise increased. Detection probability was greater when point counts included type 2 compared with type 1 song playback, particularly during the first 2 min of type 2 song playback. Golden-winged Warblers primarily use type 1 songs (often zee bee bee bee with a higher-pitched first note) in intersexual contexts and type 2 songs (strident, rapid stutter ending with a lower-pitched buzzy note) in intrasexual contexts. Distance to a male's territory, ordinal date, and song playback type were associated with the type of behavioral response to song playback. Overall, ~2 min of type 2 song playback may increase the efficacy of point counts for monitoring populations of Golden-winged Warblers by increasing the conspicuousness of males for visual identification and offsetting the consequences of surveying later in the morning. Because playback may interfere with the ability to detect distant males, it is important to follow playback with a period of passive listening. Our results indicate that even in relatively open pasture vegetation, detection probability of male Golden-winged Warblers is imperfect and highly variable.

A point implicit time integration technique for slow transient flow problems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kadioglu, Samet Y.; Berry, Ray A.; Martineau, Richard C.

2015-05-01

We introduce a point implicit time integration technique for slow transient flow problems. The method treats the solution variables of interest (that can be located at cell centers, cell edges, or cell nodes) implicitly and the rest of the information related to same or other variables are handled explicitly. The method does not require implicit iteration; instead it time advances the solutions in a similar spirit to explicit methods, except it involves a few additional function(s) evaluation steps. Moreover, the method is unconditionally stable, as a fully implicit method would be. This new approach exhibits the simplicity of implementation ofmore » explicit methods and the stability of implicit methods. It is specifically designed for slow transient flow problems of long duration wherein one would like to perform time integrations with very large time steps. Because the method can be time inaccurate for fast transient problems, particularly with larger time steps, an appropriate solution strategy for a problem that evolves from a fast to a slow transient would be to integrate the fast transient with an explicit or semi-implicit technique and then switch to this point implicit method as soon as the time variation slows sufficiently. We have solved several test problems that result from scalar or systems of flow equations. Our findings indicate the new method can integrate slow transient problems very efficiently; and its implementation is very robust.« less

Identifying the control structure of multijoint coordination during pistol shooting.

PubMed

Scholz, J P; Schöner, G; Latash, M L

2000-12-01

The question of degrees of freedom in the control of multijoint movement is posed as the problem of discovering how the motor control system constrains the many possible combinations of joint postures to stabilize task-dependent essential variables. Success at a task can be achieved, in principle, by always adopting a particular joint combination. In contrast, we propose a more selective control strategy: variations of the joint configuration that leave the values of essential task variables unchanged are predicted to be less controlled (i.e., stabilized to a lesser degree) than joint configuration changes that shift the values of the task variables. Our experimental task involved shooting with a laser pistol at a target under four conditions. The seven joint angles of the arm were obtained from the recorded positions of markers on the limb segments. The joint configurations observed at each point in normalized time were analyzed with respect to trial-to-trial variability. Different hypotheses about relevant task variables were used to define sets of joint configurations ("uncontrolled manifolds" or UCMs) that, if realized, would leave essential task variables unchanged. The variability of joint configurations was decomposed into components lying parallel to those sets and components lying in their complement. The orientation of the gun's barrel relative to a vector pointing from the gun to the target was the task variable most successful at showing a difference between the two components of joint variability. This variable determines success at the task. Throughout the movement, not only while the gun was pointing at the target, fluctuations of joint configuration that affected this variable were much reduced compared with fluctuations that did not affect this variable. The UCM principle applied to relative gun orientation thus captures the structure of the motor control system across different parts of joint configuration space as the movement evolves in time. This suggests a specific control strategy in which changes of joint configuration that are irrelevant to success at the task are selectively released from control. By contrast, constraints representing an invariant spatial position of the gun or of the arm's center of mass structured joint configuration variability in the early and mid-portion of the movement trajectory, but not at the time of shooting. This specific control strategy is not trivial, because a target can be hit successfully also by controlling irrelevant directions in joint space equally to relevant ones. The results indicate that the method can be successfully used to determine the structure of coordination in joint space that underlies the control of the essential variables for a given task.

Strategies for satellite-based monitoring of CO2 from distributed area and point sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwandner, Florian M.; Miller, Charles E.; Duren, Riley M.; Natraj, Vijay; Eldering, Annmarie; Gunson, Michael R.; Crisp, David

2014-05-01

Atmospheric CO2 budgets are controlled by the strengths, as well as the spatial and temporal variabilities of CO2 sources and sinks. Natural CO2 sources and sinks are dominated by the vast areas of the oceans and the terrestrial biosphere. In contrast, anthropogenic and geogenic CO2 sources are dominated by distributed area and point sources, which may constitute as much as 70% of anthropogenic (e.g., Duren & Miller, 2012), and over 80% of geogenic emissions (Burton et al., 2013). Comprehensive assessments of CO2 budgets necessitate robust and highly accurate satellite remote sensing strategies that address the competing and often conflicting requirements for sampling over disparate space and time scales. Spatial variability: The spatial distribution of anthropogenic sources is dominated by patterns of production, storage, transport and use. In contrast, geogenic variability is almost entirely controlled by endogenic geological processes, except where surface gas permeability is modulated by soil moisture. Satellite remote sensing solutions will thus have to vary greatly in spatial coverage and resolution to address distributed area sources and point sources alike. Temporal variability: While biogenic sources are dominated by diurnal and seasonal patterns, anthropogenic sources fluctuate over a greater variety of time scales from diurnal, weekly and seasonal cycles, driven by both economic and climatic factors. Geogenic sources typically vary in time scales of days to months (geogenic sources sensu stricto are not fossil fuels but volcanoes, hydrothermal and metamorphic sources). Current ground-based monitoring networks for anthropogenic and geogenic sources record data on minute- to weekly temporal scales. Satellite remote sensing solutions would have to capture temporal variability through revisit frequency or point-and-stare strategies. Space-based remote sensing offers the potential of global coverage by a single sensor. However, no single combination of orbit and sensor provides the full range of temporal sampling needed to characterize distributed area and point source emissions. For instance, point source emission patterns will vary with source strength, wind speed and direction. Because wind speed, direction and other environmental factors change rapidly, short term variabilities should be sampled. For detailed target selection and pointing verification, important lessons have already been learned and strategies devised during JAXA's GOSAT mission (Schwandner et al, 2013). The fact that competing spatial and temporal requirements drive satellite remote sensing sampling strategies dictates a systematic, multi-factor consideration of potential solutions. Factors to consider include vista, revisit frequency, integration times, spatial resolution, and spatial coverage. No single satellite-based remote sensing solution can address this problem for all scales. It is therefore of paramount importance for the international community to develop and maintain a constellation of atmospheric CO2 monitoring satellites that complement each other in their temporal and spatial observation capabilities: Polar sun-synchronous orbits (fixed local solar time, no diurnal information) with agile pointing allow global sampling of known distributed area and point sources like megacities, power plants and volcanoes with daily to weekly temporal revisits and moderate to high spatial resolution. Extensive targeting of distributed area and point sources comes at the expense of reduced mapping or spatial coverage, and the important contextual information that comes with large-scale contiguous spatial sampling. Polar sun-synchronous orbits with push-broom swath-mapping but limited pointing agility may allow mapping of individual source plumes and their spatial variability, but will depend on fortuitous environmental conditions during the observing period. These solutions typically have longer times between revisits, limiting their ability to resolve temporal variations. Geostationary and non-sun-synchronous low-Earth-orbits (precessing local solar time, diurnal information possible) with agile pointing have the potential to provide, comprehensive mapping of distributed area sources such as megacities with longer stare times and multiple revisits per day, at the expense of global access and spatial coverage. An ad hoc CO2 remote sensing constellation is emerging. NASA's OCO-2 satellite (launch July 2014) joins JAXA's GOSAT satellite in orbit. These will be followed by GOSAT-2 and NASA's OCO-3 on the International Space Station as early as 2017. Additional polar orbiting satellites (e.g., CarbonSat, under consideration at ESA) and geostationary platforms may also become available. However, the individual assets have been designed with independent science goals and requirements, and limited consideration of coordinated observing strategies. Every effort must be made to maximize the science return from this constellation. We discuss the opportunities to exploit the complementary spatial and temporal coverage provided by these assets as well as the crucial gaps in the capabilities of this constellation. References Burton, M.R., Sawyer, G.M., and Granieri, D. (2013). Deep carbon emissions from volcanoes. Rev. Mineral. Geochem. 75: 323-354. Duren, R.M., Miller, C.E. (2012). Measuring the carbon emissions of megacities. Nature Climate Change 2, 560-562. Schwandner, F.M., Oda, T., Duren, R., Carn, S.A., Maksyutov, S., Crisp, D., Miller, C.E. (2013). Scientific Opportunities from Target-Mode Capabilities of GOSAT-2. NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena CA, White Paper, 6p., March 2013.

A shape-based segmentation method for mobile laser scanning point clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Bisheng; Dong, Zhen

2013-07-01

Segmentation of mobile laser point clouds of urban scenes into objects is an important step for post-processing (e.g., interpretation) of point clouds. Point clouds of urban scenes contain numerous objects with significant size variability, complex and incomplete structures, and holes or variable point densities, raising great challenges for the segmentation of mobile laser point clouds. This paper addresses these challenges by proposing a shape-based segmentation method. The proposed method first calculates the optimal neighborhood size of each point to derive the geometric features associated with it, and then classifies the point clouds according to geometric features using support vector machines (SVMs). Second, a set of rules are defined to segment the classified point clouds, and a similarity criterion for segments is proposed to overcome over-segmentation. Finally, the segmentation output is merged based on topological connectivity into a meaningful geometrical abstraction. The proposed method has been tested on point clouds of two urban scenes obtained by different mobile laser scanners. The results show that the proposed method segments large-scale mobile laser point clouds with good accuracy and computationally effective time cost, and that it segments pole-like objects particularly well.

Discrete-time bidirectional associative memory neural networks with variable delays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, variable delays [rapid communication] J.; Cao, J.; Ho, D. W. C.

2005-02-01

Based on the linear matrix inequality (LMI), some sufficient conditions are presented in this Letter for the existence, uniqueness and global exponential stability of the equilibrium point of discrete-time bidirectional associative memory (BAM) neural networks with variable delays. Some of the stability criteria obtained in this Letter are delay-dependent, and some of them are delay-independent, they are less conservative than the ones reported so far in the literature. Furthermore, the results provide one more set of easily verified criteria for determining the exponential stability of discrete-time BAM neural networks.

Predictors of outcomes of psychological treatments for disordered gambling: A systematic review.

PubMed

Merkouris, S S; Thomas, S A; Browning, C J; Dowling, N A

2016-08-01

This systematic review aimed to synthesise the evidence relating to pre-treatment predictors of gambling outcomes following psychological treatment for disordered gambling across multiple time-points (i.e., post-treatment, short-term, medium-term, and long-term). A systematic search from 1990 to 2016 identified 50 articles, from which 11 socio-demographic, 16 gambling-related, 21 psychological/psychosocial, 12 treatment, and no therapist-related variables, were identified. Male gender and low depression levels were the most consistent predictors of successful treatment outcomes across multiple time-points. Likely predictors of successful treatment outcomes also included older age, lower gambling symptom severity, lower levels of gambling behaviours and alcohol use, and higher treatment session attendance. Significant associations, at a minimum of one time-point, were identified between successful treatment outcomes and being employed, ethnicity, no gambling debt, personality traits and being in the action stage of change. Mixed results were identified for treatment goal, while education, income, preferred gambling activity, problem gambling duration, anxiety, any psychiatric comorbidity, psychological distress, substance use, prior gambling treatment and medication use were not significantly associated with treatment outcomes at any time-point. Further research involving consistent treatment outcome frameworks, examination of treatment and therapist predictor variables, and evaluation of predictors across long-term follow-ups is warranted to advance this developing field of research. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

The Propagation of Movement Variability in Time: A Methodological Approach for Discrete Movements with Multiple Degrees of Freedom.

PubMed

Krüger, Melanie; Straube, Andreas; Eggert, Thomas

2017-01-01

In recent years, theory-building in motor neuroscience and our understanding of the synergistic control of the redundant human motor system has significantly profited from the emergence of a range of different mathematical approaches to analyze the structure of movement variability. Approaches such as the Uncontrolled Manifold method or the Noise-Tolerance-Covariance decomposition method allow to detect and interpret changes in movement coordination due to e.g., learning, external task constraints or disease, by analyzing the structure of within-subject, inter-trial movement variability. Whereas, for cyclical movements (e.g., locomotion), mathematical approaches exist to investigate the propagation of movement variability in time (e.g., time series analysis), similar approaches are missing for discrete, goal-directed movements, such as reaching. Here, we propose canonical correlation analysis as a suitable method to analyze the propagation of within-subject variability across different time points during the execution of discrete movements. While similar analyses have already been applied for discrete movements with only one degree of freedom (DoF; e.g., Pearson's product-moment correlation), canonical correlation analysis allows to evaluate the coupling of inter-trial variability across different time points along the movement trajectory for multiple DoF-effector systems, such as the arm. The theoretical analysis is illustrated by empirical data from a study on reaching movements under normal and disturbed proprioception. The results show increased movement duration, decreased movement amplitude, as well as altered movement coordination under ischemia, which results in a reduced complexity of movement control. Movement endpoint variability is not increased under ischemia. This suggests that healthy adults are able to immediately and efficiently adjust the control of complex reaching movements to compensate for the loss of proprioceptive information. Further, it is shown that, by using canonical correlation analysis, alterations in movement coordination that indicate changes in the control strategy concerning the use of motor redundancy can be detected, which represents an important methodical advance in the context of neuromechanics.

Sensitivity of Catchment Transit Times to Rainfall Variability Under Present and Future Climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilusz, Daniel C.; Harman, Ciaran J.; Ball, William P.

2017-12-01

Hydrologists have a relatively good understanding of how rainfall variability shapes the catchment hydrograph, a reflection of the celerity of hydraulic head propagation. Much less is known about the influence of rainfall variability on catchment transit times, a reflection of water velocities that control solute transport. This work uses catchment-scale lumped parameter models to decompose the relationship between rainfall variability and an important metric of transit times, the time-varying fraction of young water (<90 days old) in streams (FYW). A coupled rainfall-runoff model and rank StorAge Selection (rSAS) transit time model were calibrated to extensive hydrometric and environmental tracer data from neighboring headwater catchments in Plynlimon, Wales from 1999 to 2008. At both sites, the mean annual FYW increased more than 13 percentage points from the driest to the wettest year. Yearly mean rainfall explained most between-year variation, but certain signatures of rainfall pattern were also associated with higher FYW including: more clustered storms, more negatively skewed storms, and higher covariance between daily rainfall and discharge. We show that these signatures are symptomatic of an "inverse storage effect" that may be common among watersheds. Looking to the future, changes in rainfall due to projected climate change caused an up to 19 percentage point increase in simulated mean winter FYW and similarly large decreases in the mean summer FYW. Thus, climate change could seasonally alter the ages of water in streams at these sites, with concomitant impacts on water quality.

Modeling Menstrual Cycle Length and Variability at the Approach of Menopause Using Hierarchical Change Point Models

PubMed Central

Huang, Xiaobi; Elliott, Michael R.; Harlow, Siobán D.

2013-01-01

SUMMARY As women approach menopause, the patterns of their menstrual cycle lengths change. To study these changes, we need to jointly model both the mean and variability of cycle length. Our proposed model incorporates separate mean and variance change points for each woman and a hierarchical model to link them together, along with regression components to include predictors of menopausal onset such as age at menarche and parity. Additional complexity arises from the fact that the calendar data have substantial missingness due to hormone use, surgery, and failure to report. We integrate multiple imputation and time-to event modeling in a Bayesian estimation framework to deal with different forms of the missingness. Posterior predictive model checks are applied to evaluate the model fit. Our method successfully models patterns of women’s menstrual cycle trajectories throughout their late reproductive life and identifies change points for mean and variability of segment length, providing insight into the menopausal process. More generally, our model points the way toward increasing use of joint mean-variance models to predict health outcomes and better understand disease processes. PMID:24729638

Observations of the variability of coronal bright points by the Soft X-ray Telescope on Yohkoh

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Strong, Keith T.; Harvey, Karen; Hirayama, Tadashi; Nitta, Nariaki; Shimizu, Toshifumi; Tsuneta, Saku

1992-01-01

We present the initial results of a study of X-ray bright points (XBPs) made with data from the Yohkoh Soft X-ray Telescope. High temporal and spatial resolution observations of several XBPs illustrate their intensity variability over a wide variety of time scales from a few minutes to hours, as well as rapid changes in their morphology. Several XBPs produced flares during their lifetime. These XBP flares often involve magnetic loops, which are considerably larger than the XBP itself, and which brighten along their lengths at speeds of up to 1100 km/s.

Age differences in big five behavior averages and variabilities across the adult life span: moving beyond retrospective, global summary accounts of personality.

PubMed

Noftle, Erik E; Fleeson, William

2010-03-01

In 3 intensive cross-sectional studies, age differences in behavior averages and variabilities were examined. Three questions were posed: Does variability differ among age groups? Does the sizable variability in young adulthood persist throughout the life span? Do past conclusions about trait development, based on trait questionnaires, hold up when actual behavior is examined? Three groups participated: young adults (18-23 years), middle-aged adults (35-55 years), and older adults (65-81 years). In 2 experience-sampling studies, participants reported their current behavior multiple times per day for 1- or 2-week spans. In a 3rd study, participants interacted in standardized laboratory activities on 8 occasions. First, results revealed a sizable amount of intraindividual variability in behavior for all adult groups, with average within-person standard deviations ranging from about half a point to well over 1 point on 6-point scales. Second, older adults were most variable in Openness, whereas young adults were most variable in Agreeableness and Emotional Stability. Third, most specific patterns of maturation-related age differences in actual behavior were more greatly pronounced and differently patterned than those revealed by the trait questionnaire method. When participants interacted in standardized situations, personality differences between young adults and middle-aged adults were larger, and older adults exhibited a more positive personality profile than they exhibited in their everyday lives.

Stability of Language Performance at 4 and 5 Years: Measurement and Participant Variability

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Eadie, Patricia; Nguyen, Cattram; Carlin, John; Bavin, Edith; Bretherton, Lesley; Reilly, Sheena

2014-01-01

Background: Language impairment (LI) in the preschool years is known to vary over time. Stability in the diagnosis of LI may be influenced by children's individual variability, the measurement error of commonly used assessment instruments and the cut-points used to define impairment. Aims: To investigate the agreement between two different…

40 CFR 1039.505 - How do I test engines using steady-state duty cycles, including ramped-modal testing?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

.... You may extend the sampling time to improve measurement accuracy of PM emissions, using good..., you may omit speed, torque, and power points from the duty-cycle regression statistics if the... mapped. (2) For variable-speed engines without low-speed governors, you may omit torque and power points...

40 CFR 1039.505 - How do I test engines using steady-state duty cycles, including ramped-modal testing?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

.... You may extend the sampling time to improve measurement accuracy of PM emissions, using good..., you may omit speed, torque, and power points from the duty-cycle regression statistics if the... mapped. (2) For variable-speed engines without low-speed governors, you may omit torque and power points...

Nonlinear Dynamic Models in Advanced Life Support

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, Harry

2002-01-01

To facilitate analysis, ALS systems are often assumed to be linear and time invariant, but they usually have important nonlinear and dynamic aspects. Nonlinear dynamic behavior can be caused by time varying inputs, changes in system parameters, nonlinear system functions, closed loop feedback delays, and limits on buffer storage or processing rates. Dynamic models are usually cataloged according to the number of state variables. The simplest dynamic models are linear, using only integration, multiplication, addition, and subtraction of the state variables. A general linear model with only two state variables can produce all the possible dynamic behavior of linear systems with many state variables, including stability, oscillation, or exponential growth and decay. Linear systems can be described using mathematical analysis. Nonlinear dynamics can be fully explored only by computer simulations of models. Unexpected behavior is produced by simple models having only two or three state variables with simple mathematical relations between them. Closed loop feedback delays are a major source of system instability. Exceeding limits on buffer storage or processing rates forces systems to change operating mode. Different equilibrium points may be reached from different initial conditions. Instead of one stable equilibrium point, the system may have several equilibrium points, oscillate at different frequencies, or even behave chaotically, depending on the system inputs and initial conditions. The frequency spectrum of an output oscillation may contain harmonics and the sums and differences of input frequencies, but it may also contain a stable limit cycle oscillation not related to input frequencies. We must investigate the nonlinear dynamic aspects of advanced life support systems to understand and counter undesirable behavior.

Longitudinal assessment of maternal parenting capacity variables and child adjustment outcomes in pediatric cancer.

PubMed

Fedele, David A; Mullins, Larry L; Wolfe-Christensen, Cortney; Carpentier, Melissa Y

2011-04-01

This preliminary investigation aimed to longitudinally examine parenting capacity variables, namely parental overprotection, perceived child vulnerability, and parenting stress and their relation to child adjustment in mothers of children on treatment for cancer. As part of a larger study, biological mothers (N=22) completed measures of parental overprotection, perceived child vulnerability, parenting stress, and child adjustment at Time 1 and a follow-up time point. Analyses were conducted to determine whether (1) levels of parental overprotection, perceived child vulnerability, and parenting stress declined from Time 1 to follow-up and (2) if Time 1 parenting capacity variables were associated with child adjustment at follow-up. Results revealed that parental overprotection, perceived child vulnerability, and parenting stress declined from Time 1 to follow-up, and levels of parental overprotection, perceived child vulnerability, and parenting stress at Time 1 were significantly related to child adjustment at follow-up. Collectively, the preliminary findings of this study indicate that mothers of children with cancer evidence improved parenting capacity over time. Furthermore, it seems that Time 1 parenting capacity variables are significantly related to later child adjustment.

Measuring Spatial Variability of Vapor Flux to Characterize Vadose-zone VOC Sources: Flow-cell Experiments

DOE PAGES

Mainhagu, Jon; Morrison, C.; Truex, Michael J.; ...

2014-08-05

A method termed vapor-phase tomography has recently been proposed to characterize the distribution of volatile organic contaminant mass in vadose-zone source areas, and to measure associated three-dimensional distributions of local contaminant mass discharge. The method is based on measuring the spatial variability of vapor flux, and thus inherent to its effectiveness is the premise that the magnitudes and temporal variability of vapor concentrations measured at different monitoring points within the interrogated area will be a function of the geospatial positions of the points relative to the source location. A series of flow-cell experiments was conducted to evaluate this premise. Amore » well-defined source zone was created by injection and extraction of a non-reactive gas (SF6). Spatial and temporal concentration distributions obtained from the tests were compared to simulations produced with a mathematical model describing advective and diffusive transport. Tests were conducted to characterize both areal and vertical components of the application. Decreases in concentration over time were observed for monitoring points located on the opposite side of the source zone from the local–extraction point, whereas increases were observed for monitoring points located between the local–extraction point and the source zone. We found that the results illustrate that comparison of temporal concentration profiles obtained at various monitoring points gives a general indication of the source location with respect to the extraction and monitoring points.« less

A study of engineering student attributes and time to completion of first-year required courses at Texas A&M University

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kimball, Jorja Lay

For many years, colleges of engineering across the nation have required that a foundational set of courses be completed for entry into upper division coursework or into a specific engineering major. Since 1998, The Dwight Look College of Engineering at Texas A&M University (TAMU) has required that incoming first-time enrolling students complete a Core Body of Knowledge (CBK) with specific cumulative grade points required for specific majors. However, considerations of the time to completion of coursework and other student characteristics and academic factors have not been taken into consideration by TAMU, like most institutions. The purpose of this study is to determine for first year engineering students at TAMU the relationship of gender, ethnicity, engineering major, unmet financial need, cumulative grade point average, and total transfer hours on time to completion of CBK courses. The results of the analysis showed that cumulative grade point average (CGPA) had the strongest relationship to completion of CBK of any independent variable in this study. Statistical significance was found for the following variables in this study: CGPA, gender, ethnicity, and unmet financial need. For the study's variable of major, statistical significance was found for Chemical, Electrical, and Computer Engineering majors. The one variable in this study that did not show statistical significance in relation to time to completion of CBK was transfer credit. Findings with implications for recruitment and retention of underrepresented in engineering is a statistical significance indicating that on average females are taking less time than males to complete CBK. The conclusion from the study is that efforts to attract more women into engineering have merit as do programs to support underrepresented students in order that they may complete CBK at a faster pace. Further study to determine profiles of those majors where statistical significance was found for students taking a greater or lesser amount of time for CBK completion than the mean is recommended, as is ongoing data collection and comparison for current cohorts of engineering majors at TAMU.

Titan's highly variable plasma environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolf, D. A.; Neubauer, F. M.

1982-02-01

It is noted that Titan's plasma environment is variable for two reasons. The variability of the solar wind is such that Titan may be located in the outer magnetosphere, the magnetosheath, or the interplanetary medium around noon Saturnian local time. What is more, there are local time variations in Saturn's magnetosphere. The location of the stagnation point of Saturn's magnetosphere is calculated, assuming a terrestrial type magnetosphere. Characteristic plasma parameters along the orbit of Titan are shown for high solar wind pressure. During crossings of the Saturnian magnetopause or bow shock by Titan, abrupt changes in the flow direction and stagnation pressure are expected, as are rapid associated changes in Titan's uppermost atmosphere.

Running Technique is an Important Component of Running Economy and Performance

PubMed Central

FOLLAND, JONATHAN P.; ALLEN, SAM J.; BLACK, MATTHEW I.; HANDSAKER, JOSEPH C.; FORRESTER, STEPHANIE E.

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Despite an intuitive relationship between technique and both running economy (RE) and performance, and the diverse techniques used by runners to achieve forward locomotion, the objective importance of overall technique and the key components therein remain to be elucidated. Purpose This study aimed to determine the relationship between individual and combined kinematic measures of technique with both RE and performance. Methods Ninety-seven endurance runners (47 females) of diverse competitive standards performed a discontinuous protocol of incremental treadmill running (4-min stages, 1-km·h−1 increments). Measurements included three-dimensional full-body kinematics, respiratory gases to determine energy cost, and velocity of lactate turn point. Five categories of kinematic measures (vertical oscillation, braking, posture, stride parameters, and lower limb angles) and locomotory energy cost (LEc) were averaged across 10–12 km·h−1 (the highest common velocity < velocity of lactate turn point). Performance was measured as season's best (SB) time converted to a sex-specific z-score. Results Numerous kinematic variables were correlated with RE and performance (LEc, 19 variables; SB time, 11 variables). Regression analysis found three variables (pelvis vertical oscillation during ground contact normalized to height, minimum knee joint angle during ground contact, and minimum horizontal pelvis velocity) explained 39% of LEc variability. In addition, four variables (minimum horizontal pelvis velocity, shank touchdown angle, duty factor, and trunk forward lean) combined to explain 31% of the variability in performance (SB time). Conclusions This study provides novel and robust evidence that technique explains a substantial proportion of the variance in RE and performance. We recommend that runners and coaches are attentive to specific aspects of stride parameters and lower limb angles in part to optimize pelvis movement, and ultimately enhance performance. PMID:28263283

Robust Airfoil Optimization to Achieve Consistent Drag Reduction Over a Mach Range

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, Wu; Huyse, Luc; Padula, Sharon; Bushnell, Dennis M. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

We prove mathematically that in order to avoid point-optimization at the sampled design points for multipoint airfoil optimization, the number of design points must be greater than the number of free-design variables. To overcome point-optimization at the sampled design points, a robust airfoil optimization method (called the profile optimization method) is developed and analyzed. This optimization method aims at a consistent drag reduction over a given Mach range and has three advantages: (a) it prevents severe degradation in the off-design performance by using a smart descent direction in each optimization iteration, (b) there is no random airfoil shape distortion for any iterate it generates, and (c) it allows a designer to make a trade-off between a truly optimized airfoil and the amount of computing time consumed. For illustration purposes, we use the profile optimization method to solve a lift-constrained drag minimization problem for 2-D airfoil in Euler flow with 20 free-design variables. A comparison with other airfoil optimization methods is also included.

Altered network topology in pediatric traumatic brain injury

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dennis, Emily L.; Rashid, Faisal; Babikian, Talin; Mink, Richard; Babbitt, Christopher; Johnson, Jeffrey; Giza, Christopher C.; Asarnow, Robert F.; Thompson, Paul M.

2017-11-01

Outcome after a traumatic brain injury (TBI) is quite variable, and this variability is not solely accounted for by severity or demographics. Identifying sub-groups of patients who recover faster or more fully will help researchers and clinicians understand sources of this variability, and hopefully lead to new therapies for patients with a more prolonged recovery profile. We have previously identified two subgroups within the pediatric TBI patient population with different recovery profiles based on an ERP-derived (event-related potential) measure of interhemispheric transfer time (IHTT). Here we examine structural network topology across both patient groups and healthy controls, focusing on the `rich-club' - the core of the network, marked by high degree nodes. These analyses were done at two points post-injury - 2-5 months (post-acute), and 13-19 months (chronic). In the post-acute time-point, we found that the TBI-slow group, those showing longitudinal degeneration, showed hyperconnectivity within the rich-club nodes relative to the healthy controls, at the expense of local connectivity. There were minimal differences between the healthy controls and the TBI-normal group (those patients who show signs of recovery). At the chronic phase, these disruptions were no longer significant, but closer analysis showed that this was likely due to the loss of power from a smaller sample size at the chronic time-point, rather than a sign of recovery. We have previously shown disruptions to white matter (WM) integrity that persist and progress over time in the TBI-slow group, and here we again find differences in the TBI-slow group that fail to resolve over the first year post-injury.

Extinction risk and eco-evolutionary dynamics in a variable environment with increasing frequency of extreme events

PubMed Central

Vincenzi, Simone

2014-01-01

One of the most dramatic consequences of climate change will be the intensification and increased frequency of extreme events. I used numerical simulations to understand and predict the consequences of directional trend (i.e. mean state) and increased variability of a climate variable (e.g. temperature), increased probability of occurrence of point extreme events (e.g. floods), selection pressure and effect size of mutations on a quantitative trait determining individual fitness, as well as the their effects on the population and genetic dynamics of a population of moderate size. The interaction among climate trend, variability and probability of point extremes had a minor effect on risk of extinction, time to extinction and distribution of the trait after accounting for their independent effects. The survival chances of a population strongly and linearly decreased with increasing strength of selection, as well as with increasing climate trend and variability. Mutation amplitude had no effects on extinction risk, time to extinction or genetic adaptation to the new climate. Climate trend and strength of selection largely determined the shift of the mean phenotype in the population. The extinction or persistence of the populations in an ‘extinction window’ of 10 years was well predicted by a simple model including mean population size and mean genetic variance over a 10-year time frame preceding the ‘extinction window’, although genetic variance had a smaller role than population size in predicting contemporary risk of extinction. PMID:24920116

The Impact of Soil Sampling Errors on Variable Rate Fertilization

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

R. L. Hoskinson; R C. Rope; L G. Blackwood

2004-07-01

Variable rate fertilization of an agricultural field is done taking into account spatial variability in the soil’s characteristics. Most often, spatial variability in the soil’s fertility is the primary characteristic used to determine the differences in fertilizers applied from one point to the next. For several years the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL) has been developing a Decision Support System for Agriculture (DSS4Ag) to determine the economically optimum recipe of various fertilizers to apply at each site in a field, based on existing soil fertility at the site, predicted yield of the crop that would result (and amore » predicted harvest-time market price), and the current costs and compositions of the fertilizers to be applied. Typically, soil is sampled at selected points within a field, the soil samples are analyzed in a lab, and the lab-measured soil fertility of the point samples is used for spatial interpolation, in some statistical manner, to determine the soil fertility at all other points in the field. Then a decision tool determines the fertilizers to apply at each point. Our research was conducted to measure the impact on the variable rate fertilization recipe caused by variability in the measurement of the soil’s fertility at the sampling points. The variability could be laboratory analytical errors or errors from variation in the sample collection method. The results show that for many of the fertility parameters, laboratory measurement error variance exceeds the estimated variability of the fertility measure across grid locations. These errors resulted in DSS4Ag fertilizer recipe recommended application rates that differed by up to 138 pounds of urea per acre, with half the field differing by more than 57 pounds of urea per acre. For potash the difference in application rate was up to 895 pounds per acre and over half the field differed by more than 242 pounds of potash per acre. Urea and potash differences accounted for almost 87% of the cost difference. The sum of these differences could result in a $34 per acre cost difference for the fertilization. Because of these differences, better analysis or better sampling methods may need to be done, or more samples collected, to ensure that the soil measurements are truly representative of the field’s spatial variability.« less

Health-Related Variables and Academic Performance among First-Year College Students: Implications for Sleep and Other Behaviors.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Trockel, Mickey T.; Barnes, Michael D.; Egget, Dennis L.

2000-01-01

Analyzed the effect of several health behaviors and health-related variables on college freshmen's grade point averages (GPAs). Survey data indicated that sleep habits, particularly wake-up time, accounted for the most variance in GPAs. Higher GPAs related to strength training and study of spiritually oriented material. Lower GPAs related to…

Single-Cell-Based Analysis Highlights a Surge in Cell-to-Cell Molecular Variability Preceding Irreversible Commitment in a Differentiation Process

PubMed Central

Boullu, Loïs; Morin, Valérie; Vallin, Elodie; Guillemin, Anissa; Papili Gao, Nan; Cosette, Jérémie; Arnaud, Ophélie; Kupiec, Jean-Jacques; Espinasse, Thibault

2016-01-01

In some recent studies, a view emerged that stochastic dynamics governing the switching of cells from one differentiation state to another could be characterized by a peak in gene expression variability at the point of fate commitment. We have tested this hypothesis at the single-cell level by analyzing primary chicken erythroid progenitors through their differentiation process and measuring the expression of selected genes at six sequential time-points after induction of differentiation. In contrast to population-based expression data, single-cell gene expression data revealed a high cell-to-cell variability, which was masked by averaging. We were able to show that the correlation network was a very dynamical entity and that a subgroup of genes tend to follow the predictions from the dynamical network biomarker (DNB) theory. In addition, we also identified a small group of functionally related genes encoding proteins involved in sterol synthesis that could act as the initial drivers of the differentiation. In order to assess quantitatively the cell-to-cell variability in gene expression and its evolution in time, we used Shannon entropy as a measure of the heterogeneity. Entropy values showed a significant increase in the first 8 h of the differentiation process, reaching a peak between 8 and 24 h, before decreasing to significantly lower values. Moreover, we observed that the previous point of maximum entropy precedes two paramount key points: an irreversible commitment to differentiation between 24 and 48 h followed by a significant increase in cell size variability at 48 h. In conclusion, when analyzed at the single cell level, the differentiation process looks very different from its classical population average view. New observables (like entropy) can be computed, the behavior of which is fully compatible with the idea that differentiation is not a “simple” program that all cells execute identically but results from the dynamical behavior of the underlying molecular network. PMID:28027290

Single-Cell-Based Analysis Highlights a Surge in Cell-to-Cell Molecular Variability Preceding Irreversible Commitment in a Differentiation Process.

PubMed

Richard, Angélique; Boullu, Loïs; Herbach, Ulysse; Bonnafoux, Arnaud; Morin, Valérie; Vallin, Elodie; Guillemin, Anissa; Papili Gao, Nan; Gunawan, Rudiyanto; Cosette, Jérémie; Arnaud, Ophélie; Kupiec, Jean-Jacques; Espinasse, Thibault; Gonin-Giraud, Sandrine; Gandrillon, Olivier

2016-12-01

In some recent studies, a view emerged that stochastic dynamics governing the switching of cells from one differentiation state to another could be characterized by a peak in gene expression variability at the point of fate commitment. We have tested this hypothesis at the single-cell level by analyzing primary chicken erythroid progenitors through their differentiation process and measuring the expression of selected genes at six sequential time-points after induction of differentiation. In contrast to population-based expression data, single-cell gene expression data revealed a high cell-to-cell variability, which was masked by averaging. We were able to show that the correlation network was a very dynamical entity and that a subgroup of genes tend to follow the predictions from the dynamical network biomarker (DNB) theory. In addition, we also identified a small group of functionally related genes encoding proteins involved in sterol synthesis that could act as the initial drivers of the differentiation. In order to assess quantitatively the cell-to-cell variability in gene expression and its evolution in time, we used Shannon entropy as a measure of the heterogeneity. Entropy values showed a significant increase in the first 8 h of the differentiation process, reaching a peak between 8 and 24 h, before decreasing to significantly lower values. Moreover, we observed that the previous point of maximum entropy precedes two paramount key points: an irreversible commitment to differentiation between 24 and 48 h followed by a significant increase in cell size variability at 48 h. In conclusion, when analyzed at the single cell level, the differentiation process looks very different from its classical population average view. New observables (like entropy) can be computed, the behavior of which is fully compatible with the idea that differentiation is not a "simple" program that all cells execute identically but results from the dynamical behavior of the underlying molecular network.

Meteorological factors, air pollutants, and emergency department visits for otitis media: a time series study.

PubMed

Gestro, Massimo; Condemi, Vincenzo; Bardi, Luisella; Fantino, Claudio; Solimene, Umberto

2017-10-01

AbstractOtitis media (OM) is a very common disease in children, which results in a significant economic burden to the healthcare system for hospital-based outpatient departments, emergency departments (EDs), unscheduled medical examinations, and antibiotic prescriptions. The aim of this retrospective observational study is to investigate the association between climate variables, air pollutants, and OM visits observed in the 2007-2010 period at the ED of Cuneo, Italy. Measures of meteorological parameters (temperature, humidity, atmospheric pressure, wind) and outdoor air pollutants (particulate matter, ozone, nitrous dioxide) were analyzed at two statistical stages and in several specific steps (crude and adjusted models) according to Poisson's regression. Response variables included daily examinations for age groups 0-3, 0-6, and 0-18. Control variables included upper respiratory infections (URI), flu (FLU), and several calendar factors. A statistical procedure was implemented to capture any delayed effects. Results show a moderate association for temperature (T), age 0-3, and 0-6 with P < 0.05, as well as nitrous dioxide (NO 2 ) with P < 0.005 at age 0-18. Results of subsequent models point out to URI as an important control variable. No statistical association was observed for other pollutants and meteorological variables. The dose-response models (DLNM-final stage) implemented separately on a daily and hourly basis point out to an association between temperature (daily model) and RR 1.44 at age 0-3, CI 1.11-1.88 (lag time 0-1 days) and RR 1.43, CI 1.05-1.94 (lag time 0-3 days). The hourly model confirms a specific dose-response effect for T with RR 1.20, CI 1.04-1.38 (lag time range from 0 to 11 to 0-15 h) and for NO 2 with RR 1.03, CI 1.01-1.05 (lag time range from 0 to 8 to 0-15 h). These results support the hypothesis that the clinical context of URI may be an important risk factor in the onset of OM diagnosed at ED level. The study highlights the relevance of URI as a control variable to be included in the statistical analysis in association with meteorological factors and air pollutants. The study also points out to a moderate association of OM with low temperatures and NO 2 , with specific risk factors for this variable early in life. Further studies are needed to confirm these findings, particularly with respect to air pollutants in larger urban environments.

Meteorological factors, air pollutants, and emergency department visits for otitis media: a time series study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gestro, Massimo; Condemi, Vincenzo; Bardi, Luisella; Fantino, Claudio; Solimene, Umberto

2017-10-01

Abstract Otitis media (OM) is a very common disease in children, which results in a significant economic burden to the healthcare system for hospital-based outpatient departments, emergency departments (EDs), unscheduled medical examinations, and antibiotic prescriptions. The aim of this retrospective observational study is to investigate the association between climate variables, air pollutants, and OM visits observed in the 2007-2010 period at the ED of Cuneo, Italy. Measures of meteorological parameters (temperature, humidity, atmospheric pressure, wind) and outdoor air pollutants (particulate matter, ozone, nitrous dioxide) were analyzed at two statistical stages and in several specific steps (crude and adjusted models) according to Poisson's regression. Response variables included daily examinations for age groups 0-3, 0-6, and 0-18. Control variables included upper respiratory infections (URI), flu (FLU), and several calendar factors. A statistical procedure was implemented to capture any delayed effects. Results show a moderate association for temperature ( T), age 0-3, and 0-6 with P < 0.05, as well as nitrous dioxide (NO2) with P < 0.005 at age 0-18. Results of subsequent models point out to URI as an important control variable. No statistical association was observed for other pollutants and meteorological variables. The dose-response models (DLNM—final stage) implemented separately on a daily and hourly basis point out to an association between temperature (daily model) and RR 1.44 at age 0-3, CI 1.11-1.88 (lag time 0-1 days) and RR 1.43, CI 1.05-1.94 (lag time 0-3 days). The hourly model confirms a specific dose-response effect for T with RR 1.20, CI 1.04-1.38 (lag time range from 0 to 11 to 0-15 h) and for NO2 with RR 1.03, CI 1.01-1.05 (lag time range from 0 to 8 to 0-15 h). These results support the hypothesis that the clinical context of URI may be an important risk factor in the onset of OM diagnosed at ED level. The study highlights the relevance of URI as a control variable to be included in the statistical analysis in association with meteorological factors and air pollutants. The study also points out to a moderate association of OM with low temperatures and NO2, with specific risk factors for this variable early in life. Further studies are needed to confirm these findings, particularly with respect to air pollutants in larger urban environments.

Statistical aspects of point count sampling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barker, R.J.; Sauer, J.R.; Ralph, C.J.; Sauer, J.R.; Droege, S.

1995-01-01

The dominant feature of point counts is that they do not census birds, but instead provide incomplete counts of individuals present within a survey plot. Considering a simple model for point count sampling, we demon-strate that use of these incomplete counts can bias estimators and testing procedures, leading to inappropriate conclusions. A large portion of the variability in point counts is caused by the incomplete counting, and this within-count variation can be confounded with ecologically meaningful varia-tion. We recommend caution in the analysis of estimates obtained from point counts. Using; our model, we also consider optimal allocation of sampling effort. The critical step in the optimization process is in determining the goals of the study and methods that will be used to meet these goals. By explicitly defining the constraints on sampling and by estimating the relationship between precision and bias of estimators and time spent counting, we can predict the optimal time at a point for each of several monitoring goals. In general, time spent at a point will differ depending on the goals of the study.

Investigating Surface and Near-Surface Bushfire Fuel Attributes: A Comparison between Visual Assessments and Image-Based Point Clouds.

PubMed

Spits, Christine; Wallace, Luke; Reinke, Karin

2017-04-20

Visual assessment, following guides such as the Overall Fuel Hazard Assessment Guide (OFHAG), is a common approach for assessing the structure and hazard of varying bushfire fuel layers. Visual assessments can be vulnerable to imprecision due to subjectivity between assessors, while emerging techniques such as image-based point clouds can offer land managers potentially more repeatable descriptions of fuel structure. This study compared the variability of estimates of surface and near-surface fuel attributes generated by eight assessment teams using the OFHAG and Fuels3D, a smartphone method utilising image-based point clouds, within three assessment plots in an Australian lowland forest. Surface fuel hazard scores derived from underpinning attributes were also assessed. Overall, this study found considerable variability between teams on most visually assessed variables, resulting in inconsistent hazard scores. Variability was observed within point cloud estimates but was, however, on average two to eight times less than that seen in visual estimates, indicating greater consistency and repeatability of this method. It is proposed that while variability within the Fuels3D method may be overcome through improved methods and equipment, inconsistencies in the OFHAG are likely due to the inherent subjectivity between assessors, which may be more difficult to overcome. This study demonstrates the capability of the Fuels3D method to efficiently and consistently collect data on fuel hazard and structure, and, as such, this method shows potential for use in fire management practices where accurate and reliable data is essential.

Decoding the spatial signatures of multi-scale climate variability - a climate network perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donner, R. V.; Jajcay, N.; Wiedermann, M.; Ekhtiari, N.; Palus, M.

2017-12-01

During the last years, the application of complex networks as a versatile tool for analyzing complex spatio-temporal data has gained increasing interest. Establishing this approach as a new paradigm in climatology has already provided valuable insights into key spatio-temporal climate variability patterns across scales, including novel perspectives on the dynamics of the El Nino Southern Oscillation or the emergence of extreme precipitation patterns in monsoonal regions. In this work, we report first attempts to employ network analysis for disentangling multi-scale climate variability. Specifically, we introduce the concept of scale-specific climate networks, which comprises a sequence of networks representing the statistical association structure between variations at distinct time scales. For this purpose, we consider global surface air temperature reanalysis data and subject the corresponding time series at each grid point to a complex-valued continuous wavelet transform. From this time-scale decomposition, we obtain three types of signals per grid point and scale - amplitude, phase and reconstructed signal, the statistical similarity of which is then represented by three complex networks associated with each scale. We provide a detailed analysis of the resulting connectivity patterns reflecting the spatial organization of climate variability at each chosen time-scale. Global network characteristics like transitivity or network entropy are shown to provide a new view on the (global average) relevance of different time scales in climate dynamics. Beyond expected trends originating from the increasing smoothness of fluctuations at longer scales, network-based statistics reveal different degrees of fragmentation of spatial co-variability patterns at different scales and zonal shifts among the key players of climate variability from tropically to extra-tropically dominated patterns when moving from inter-annual to decadal scales and beyond. The obtained results demonstrate the potential usefulness of systematically exploiting scale-specific climate networks, whose general patterns are in line with existing climatological knowledge, but provide vast opportunities for further quantifications at local, regional and global scales that are yet to be explored.

A multi-site stochastic weather generator of daily precipitation and temperature

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Stochastic weather generators are used to generate time series of climate variables that have statistical properties similar to those of observed data. Most stochastic weather generators work for a single site, and can only generate climate data at a single point, or independent time series at sever...

Two-phase strategy of neural control for planar reaching movements: I. XY coordination variability and its relation to end-point variability.

PubMed

Rand, Miya K; Shimansky, Yury P

2013-03-01

A quantitative model of optimal transport-aperture coordination (TAC) during reach-to-grasp movements has been developed in our previous studies. The utilization of that model for data analysis allowed, for the first time, to examine the phase dependence of the precision demand specified by the CNS for neurocomputational information processing during an ongoing movement. It was shown that the CNS utilizes a two-phase strategy for movement control. That strategy consists of reducing the precision demand for neural computations during the initial phase, which decreases the cost of information processing at the expense of lower extent of control optimality. To successfully grasp the target object, the CNS increases precision demand during the final phase, resulting in higher extent of control optimality. In the present study, we generalized the model of optimal TAC to a model of optimal coordination between X and Y components of point-to-point planar movements (XYC). We investigated whether the CNS uses the two-phase control strategy for controlling those movements, and how the strategy parameters depend on the prescribed movement speed, movement amplitude and the size of the target area. The results indeed revealed a substantial similarity between the CNS's regulation of TAC and XYC. First, the variability of XYC within individual trials was minimal, meaning that execution noise during the movement was insignificant. Second, the inter-trial variability of XYC was considerable during the majority of the movement time, meaning that the precision demand for information processing was lowered, which is characteristic for the initial phase. That variability significantly decreased, indicating higher extent of control optimality, during the shorter final movement phase. The final phase was the longest (shortest) under the most (least) challenging combination of speed and accuracy requirements, fully consistent with the concept of the two-phase control strategy. This paper further discussed the relationship between motor variability and XYC variability.

Spatial and temporal distribution of trunk-injected (14) C-imidacloprid in Fraxinus trees.

PubMed

Tanis, Sara R; Cregg, Bert M; Mota-Sanchez, David; McCullough, Deborah G; Poland, Therese M

2012-04-01

Since the discovery of Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire (emerald ash borer) in 2002, researchers have tested several methods of chemical control. Soil drench or trunk injection products containing imidacloprid are commonly used to control adults. However, efficacy can be highly variable and may be due to uneven translocation of systemic insecticides. The purpose of this study was to determine whether sectored xylem anatomy might influence imidacloprid distribution in tree crowns. Imidacloprid equivalent concentrations were higher in leaves from branches in the plane of the injection point (0°) than in leaves from branches on the opposite side of the injection point (180°). Leaves from branches 90° to the right of injection points had higher imidacloprid equivalent concentrations than leaves from branches 90° to the left of injection points. Leaves and shoots had higher imidacloprid equivalent concentrations than roots and trunk cores, indicating that imidacloprid moves primarily through the xylem. Imidacloprid equivalent concentration in leaves varied over time and in relation to injection points. It is concluded that ash trees have sectored 'zigzag' xylem architecture patterns consistent with sectored flow distribution. This could lead to variable distribution of imidacloprid in tree crowns and therefore to variable control of A. planipennis. Copyright © 2012 Society of Chemical Industry.

Multilevel Dynamic Generalized Structured Component Analysis for Brain Connectivity Analysis in Functional Neuroimaging Data.

PubMed

Jung, Kwanghee; Takane, Yoshio; Hwang, Heungsun; Woodward, Todd S

2016-06-01

We extend dynamic generalized structured component analysis (GSCA) to enhance its data-analytic capability in structural equation modeling of multi-subject time series data. Time series data of multiple subjects are typically hierarchically structured, where time points are nested within subjects who are in turn nested within a group. The proposed approach, named multilevel dynamic GSCA, accommodates the nested structure in time series data. Explicitly taking the nested structure into account, the proposed method allows investigating subject-wise variability of the loadings and path coefficients by looking at the variance estimates of the corresponding random effects, as well as fixed loadings between observed and latent variables and fixed path coefficients between latent variables. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach by applying the method to the multi-subject functional neuroimaging data for brain connectivity analysis, where time series data-level measurements are nested within subjects.

Eleventh International Laser Radar Conference, Wisconsin University-Madison, 21-25 June 1982.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-06-01

an aircraft altitude, Iif(x) is an intensity of if beat signal in the sky at the point x, I is the laser power , y is the albedo of the ground surface...the aircraft flight path 2) Minimize degradation or power loss to the input/output path 3) Provide variable scan time points at rates up to .25...water particles. A lidar measurement at a specific point , therefore, is not necessarily representative of the entire globe. This will be discussed with

Impact of survey workflow on precision and accuracy of terrestrial LiDAR datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gold, P. O.; Cowgill, E.; Kreylos, O.

2009-12-01

Ground-based LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) survey techniques are enabling remote visualization and quantitative analysis of geologic features at unprecedented levels of detail. For example, digital terrain models computed from LiDAR data have been used to measure displaced landforms along active faults and to quantify fault-surface roughness. But how accurately do terrestrial LiDAR data represent the true ground surface, and in particular, how internally consistent and precise are the mosaiced LiDAR datasets from which surface models are constructed? Addressing this question is essential for designing survey workflows that capture the necessary level of accuracy for a given project while minimizing survey time and equipment, which is essential for effective surveying of remote sites. To address this problem, we seek to define a metric that quantifies how scan registration error changes as a function of survey workflow. Specifically, we are using a Trimble GX3D laser scanner to conduct a series of experimental surveys to quantify how common variables in field workflows impact the precision of scan registration. Primary variables we are testing include 1) use of an independently measured network of control points to locate scanner and target positions, 2) the number of known-point locations used to place the scanner and point clouds in 3-D space, 3) the type of target used to measure distances between the scanner and the known points, and 4) setting up the scanner over a known point as opposed to resectioning of known points. Precision of the registered point cloud is quantified using Trimble Realworks software by automatic calculation of registration errors (errors between locations of the same known points in different scans). Accuracy of the registered cloud (i.e., its ground-truth) will be measured in subsequent experiments. To obtain an independent measure of scan-registration errors and to better visualize the effects of these errors on a registered point cloud, we scan from multiple locations an object of known geometry (a cylinder mounted above a square box). Preliminary results show that even in a controlled experimental scan of an object of known dimensions, there is significant variability in the precision of the registered point cloud. For example, when 3 scans of the central object are registered using 4 known points (maximum time, maximum equipment), the point clouds align to within ~1 cm (normal to the object surface). However, when the same point clouds are registered with only 1 known point (minimum time, minimum equipment), misalignment of the point clouds can range from 2.5 to 5 cm, depending on target type. The greater misalignment of the 3 point clouds when registered with fewer known points stems from the field method employed in acquiring the dataset and demonstrates the impact of field workflow on LiDAR dataset precision. By quantifying the degree of scan mismatch in results such as this, we can provide users with the information needed to maximize efficiency in remote field surveys.

Urinary Tract Infection Antibiotic Trial Study Design: A Systematic Review.

PubMed

Basmaci, Romain; Vazouras, Konstantinos; Bielicki, Julia; Folgori, Laura; Hsia, Yingfen; Zaoutis, Theoklis; Sharland, Mike

2017-12-01

Urinary tract infections (UTIs) represent common bacterial infections in children. No guidance on the conduct of pediatric febrile UTI clinical trials (CTs) exist. To assess the criteria used for patient selection and the efficacy end points in febrile pediatric UTI CTs. Medline, Embase, Cochrane central databases, and clinicaltrials.gov were searched between January 1, 1990, and November 24, 2016. We combined Medical Subject Headings terms and free-text terms for "urinary tract infections" and "therapeutics" and "clinical trials" in children (0-18 years), identifying 3086 articles. Two independent reviewers assessed study quality and performed data extraction. We included 40 CTs in which a total of 4381 cases of pediatric UTIs were investigated. Positive urine culture results and fever were the most common inclusion criteria (93% and 78%, respectively). Urine sampling method, pyuria, and colony thresholds were highly variable. Clinical and microbiological end points were assessed in 88% and 93% of the studies, respectively. Timing for end point assessment was highly variable, and only 3 studies (17%) out of the 18 performed after the Food and Drug Administration 1998 guidance publication assessed primary and secondary end points consistently with this guidance. Our limitations included a mixed population of healthy children and children with an underlying condition. In 6 trials, researchers studied a subgroup of patients with afebrile UTI. We observed a wide variability in the microbiological inclusion criteria and the timing for end point assessment. The available guidance for adults appear not to be used by pediatricians and do not seem applicable to the childhood UTI. A harmonized design for pediatric UTIs CT is necessary. Copyright © 2017 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

Intraday X-Ray Variability of QSOs/AGN Using the Chandra Archives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tartamella, C.; Busche, J.

2005-05-01

X-ray variability is a common characteristic of Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN), and it can be used to probe the nuclear region at short time scales. Quantitative analysis of this variability has been difficult due to low signal-to-noise ratios and short time baselines, but serendipitous Chandra data acquired within the last six years have opened the door to such analysis. Cross-correlation of the Chandra archives with QSO/AGN catalogs on NASA's HEASARC website (e.g. Veron, Sloan) yields a sample of 50+ objects that satisfy the following criteria: absolute magnitude M≤ -22.5, proper time baselines greater than 2 hours, and count rates leading to 10% error bars for 8+ flux points on the light curve. The sample includes a range of red-shifts, magnitudes, and type (e.g. radio loud, radio quiet), and hence may yield empirical clues about luminosity or evolutionary trends. As a beginning of such analysis, we present 11 light curves for 9 objects for which the exposure time was greater than 10 hours. The variability was analyzed using three different statistical methods. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test proved to be impractical because of the unavoidably small number of data points and the simplistic nature of the test. A χ2 test indicated in most cases that there were significant departures from constant brightness (as expected). Autocorrelation plots were also generated for each light curve. With more work and a larger sample size, these plots can be used to identify any trends in the lightcurve such as whether the variability is stochastic or periodic in nature. This test was useful even with the small number of datapoints available. In future work, more sophisticated analyses based on Fourier series, power density spectra, or wavelets are likely to yield more meaningful and useful results.

Variability in total ozone associated with baroclinic waves

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mote, Philip W.; Holton, James R.; Wallace, John M.

1991-01-01

One-point regression maps of total ozone formed by regressing the time series of bandpass-filtered geopotential height data have been analyzed against Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer data. Results obtained reveal a strong signature of baroclinic waves in the ozone variability. The regressed patterns are found to be similar in extent and behavior to the relative vorticity patterns reported by Lim and Wallace (1991).

The tropopause cold trap in the Australian Monsoon during STEP/AMEX 1987

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Selkirk, Henry B.

1993-01-01

The relationship between deep convection and tropopause cold trap conditions is examined for the tropical northern Australia region during the 1986-87 summer monsoon season, emphasizing the Australia Monsoon Experiment (AMEX) period when the NASA Stratosphere-Troposphere Exchange Project (STEP) was being conducted. The factors related to the spatial and temporal variability of the cold point potential temperature (CPPT) are investigated. A framework is developed for describing the relationships among surface average equivalent potential temperature in the surface layer (AEPTSL) the height of deep convection, and stratosphere-troposphere exchange. The time-mean pattern of convection, large-scale circulation, and surface AEPTSL in the Australian monsoon and the evolution of the convective environment during the monsoon period and the extended transition season which preceded it are described. The time-mean fields of cold point level variables are examined and the statistical relationships between mean CPPT, surface AEPTSL, and deep convection are described. Day-to-day variations of CPPT are examined in terms of these time mean relationships.

Use of personalized Dynamic Treatment Regimes (DTRs) and Sequential Multiple Assignment Randomized Trials (SMARTs) in mental health studies

PubMed Central

Liu, Ying; ZENG, Donglin; WANG, Yuanjia

2014-01-01

Summary Dynamic treatment regimens (DTRs) are sequential decision rules tailored at each point where a clinical decision is made based on each patient’s time-varying characteristics and intermediate outcomes observed at earlier points in time. The complexity, patient heterogeneity, and chronicity of mental disorders call for learning optimal DTRs to dynamically adapt treatment to an individual’s response over time. The Sequential Multiple Assignment Randomized Trial (SMARTs) design allows for estimating causal effects of DTRs. Modern statistical tools have been developed to optimize DTRs based on personalized variables and intermediate outcomes using rich data collected from SMARTs; these statistical methods can also be used to recommend tailoring variables for designing future SMART studies. This paper introduces DTRs and SMARTs using two examples in mental health studies, discusses two machine learning methods for estimating optimal DTR from SMARTs data, and demonstrates the performance of the statistical methods using simulated data. PMID:25642116

Spatial variability of turbulent fluxes in the roughness sublayer of an even-aged pine forest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Katul, G.; Hsieh, C.-I.; Bowling, D.; Clark, K.; Shurpali, N.; Turnipseed, A.; Albertson, J.; Tu, K.; Hollinger, D.; Evans, B. M.; Offerle, B.; Anderson, D.; Ellsworth, D.; Vogel, C.; Oren, R.

1999-01-01

The spatial variability of turbulent flow statistics in the roughness sublayer (RSL) of a uniform even-aged 14 m (= h) tall loblolly pine forest was investigated experimentally. Using seven existing walkup towers at this stand, high frequency velocity, temperature, water vapour and carbon dioxide concentrations were measured at 15.5 m above the ground surface from October 6 to 10 in 1997. These seven towers were separated by at least 100 m from each other. The objective of this study was to examine whether single tower turbulence statistics measurements represent the flow properties of RSL turbulence above a uniform even-aged managed loblolly pine forest as a best-case scenario for natural forested ecosystems. From the intensive space-time series measurements, it was demonstrated that standard deviations of longitudinal and vertical velocities (??(u), ??(w)) and temperature (??(T)) are more planar homogeneous than their vertical flux of momentum (u(*)2) and sensible heat (H) counterparts. Also, the measured H is more horizontally homogeneous when compared to fluxes of other scalar entities such as CO2 and water vapour. While the spatial variability in fluxes was significant (> 15%), this unique data set confirmed that single tower measurements represent the 'canonical' structure of single-point RSL turbulence statistics, especially flux-variance relationships. Implications to extending the 'moving-equilibrium' hypothesis for RSL flows are discussed. The spatial variability in all RSL flow variables was not constant in time and varied strongly with spatially averaged friction velocity u(*), especially when u(*) was small. It is shown that flow properties derived from two-point temporal statistics such as correlation functions are more sensitive to local variability in leaf area density when compared to single point flow statistics. Specifically, that the local relationship between the reciprocal of the vertical velocity integral time scale (I(w)) and the arrival frequency of organized structures (u??/h) predicted from a mixing-layer theory exhibited dependence on the local leaf area index. The broader implications of these findings to the measurement and modelling of RSL flows are also discussed.

Variability of residue concentrations of ciprofloxacin in honey from treated hives.

PubMed

Chan, Danny; Macarthur, Roy; Fussell, Richard J; Wilford, Jack; Budge, Giles

2017-04-01

Honey bees (Apis mellifera L.) were treated with a model veterinary drug compound (ciprofloxacin) in a 3-year study (2012-14) to investigate the variability of residue concentration in honey. Sucrose solution containing ciprofloxacin was administered to 45 hives (1 g of ciprofloxacin per hive) at the beginning of the honey flow in late May/mid-June 2012, 2013 and 2014. Buckfast honey bees (A. mellifera - hybrid) were used in years 2012 and 2013. Carniolan honey bees (A. mellifera carnica) were used instead of the Buckfast honey bees as a replacement due to unforeseen circumstances in the final year of the study (2014). Honey was collected over nine scheduled time points from May/June till late October each year. Up to five hives were removed and their honey analysed per time point. Honey samples were analysed by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) to determine ciprofloxacin concentration. Statistical assessment of the data shows that the inter-hive variation of ciprofloxacin concentrations in 2012/13 is very different compared with that of 2014 with relative standard deviations (RSDs) of 138% and 61%, respectively. The average ciprofloxacin concentration for 2014 at the last time point was more than 10 times the concentration compared with samples from 2012/13 at the same time point. The difference between the 2012/13 data compared with the 2014 data is likely due to the different type of honey bees used in this study (2012/13 Buckfast versus 2014 Carniolan). Uncertainty estimates for honey with high ciprofloxacin concentration (upper 95th percentile) across all hives for 55-day withdrawal samples gave residual standard errors (RSEs) of 22%, 20% and 11% for 2012, 2013 and 2014, respectively. If the number of hives were to be reduced for future studies, RSEs were estimated to be 52% (2012), 54% (2013) and 26% (2014) for one hive per time point (nine total hives).

Timing at peak force may be the hidden target controlled in continuation and synchronization tapping.

PubMed

Du, Yue; Clark, Jane E; Whitall, Jill

2017-05-01

Timing control, such as producing movements at a given rate or synchronizing movements to an external event, has been studied through a finger-tapping task where timing is measured at the initial contact between finger and tapping surface or the point when a key is pressed. However, the point of peak force is after the time registered at the tapping surface and thus is a less obvious but still an important event during finger tapping. Here, we compared the time at initial contact with the time at peak force as participants tapped their finger on a force sensor at a given rate after the metronome was turned off (continuation task) or in synchrony with the metronome (sensorimotor synchronization task). We found that, in the continuation task, timing was comparably accurate between initial contact and peak force. These two timing events also exhibited similar trial-by-trial statistical dependence (i.e., lag-one autocorrelation). However, the central clock variability was lower at the peak force than the initial contact. In the synchronization task, timing control at peak force appeared to be less variable and more accurate than that at initial contact. In addition to lower central clock variability, the mean SE magnitude at peak force (SEP) was around zero while SE at initial contact (SEC) was negative. Although SEC and SEP demonstrated the same trial-by-trial statistical dependence, we found that participants adjusted the time of tapping to correct SEP, but not SEC, toward zero. These results suggest that timing at peak force is a meaningful target of timing control, particularly in synchronization tapping. This result may explain the fact that SE at initial contact is typically negative as widely observed in the preexisting literature.

(abstract) Short Time Period Variations in Jupiter's Synchrotron Radiation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bolton, S. J.; Klein, M. J.; Gulkis, S.; Foster, R.; Heiles, C.; Pater, I. de

1994-01-01

The long term time variability of Jupiter's synchrotron radiation on yearly time scales has been established for some time. For many years, theorists have speculated about the effects variations in the solar wind, solar flux, Io, the Io torus, and Jupiter's magnetic field have on the ultra-relativistic electron population responsible for the emission. Early observational results suggested the additional possibility of a short term time variability, on timescales of days to weeks. In 1989 a program designed to investigate the existence of short term time variability using the 85 foot Hat Creek radio telescope operating at 1400 MHz was initiated. The availability of a dedicated telescope provided the opportunity, for the first time, to obtain numerous observations over the full Jupiter rotation period. These and future observations will enable two important studies, characterization and confirmation of possible short term variations, and the investigation of the stability of Jupiter's synchrotron emission beaming curve. Analysis of Hat Creek observations and early results from the Maryland Point Naval research Laboratory will be presented.

Surrogate markers for time-varying treatments and outcomes

PubMed Central

Hsu, Jesse Y; Kennedy, Edward H; Roy, Jason A; Stephens-Shields, Alisa J; Small, Dylan S; Joffe, Marshall M

2015-01-01

Background A surrogate marker is a variable commonly used in clinical trials to guide treatment decisions when the outcome of ultimate interest is not available. A good surrogate marker is one where the treatment effect on the surrogate is a strong predictor of the effect of treatment on the outcome. We review the situation when there is one treatment delivered at baseline, one surrogate measured at one later time point and one ultimate outcome of interest, and discuss new issues arising when variables are time-varying. Methods Most of the literature on surrogate markers has only considered simple settings with one treatment, one surrogate, and one outcome of interest at a fixed time point. However, more complicated time-varying settings are common in practice. In this paper, we describe the unique challenges in two settings, time-varying treatments and time-varying surrogates, while relating the ideas back to the causal-effects and causal-association paradigms. Conclusions In addition to discussing and extending popular notions of surrogacy to time-varying settings, we give examples illustrating that one can be misled by not taking into account time-varying information about the surrogate or treatment. We hope this paper has provided some motivation for future work on estimation and inference in such settings. PMID:25948621

Intrafractional gastric motion and interfractional stomach deformity during radiation therapy.

PubMed

Watanabe, Miho; Isobe, Koichi; Takisima, Haduki; Uno, Takashi; Ueno, Naoyuki; Kawakami, Hiroyuki; Shigematsu, Naoyuki; Yamashita, Miki; Ito, Hisao

2008-06-01

To evaluate intrafractional gastric motion and interfractional variability of the stomach shape during radiation therapy (RT) for gastric lymphoma. For 11 patients with gastric lymphomas, we undertook fluoroscopic examinations at the time of the simulation, and once a week during RT to evaluate inter- and intrafractional gastric variations. We recorded anteroposterior and left to right X-ray images at inhale and exhale in each examination. We gave coordinates based on the bony landmarks in each patient, and identified the most superior, inferior, lateral, ventral, and dorsal points of the stomach on each film. The interfractional motion was assessed as the distance between a point at inhale and the corresponding point at exhale. We also analyzed interfractional variation based on each point measured. The intrafractional gastric motion was 11.7+/-8.3, 11.0+/-7.1, 6.5+/-6.5, 3.4+/-2.3, 7.1+/-8.2, 6.6+/-5.8mm (mean+/-SD) for the superior, inferior, right, left, ventral and dorsal points, respectively, which was significantly different between each point. The interfractional variability of stomach filling was -2.9+/-14.4, -6.0+/-13.4, 9.3+/-22.0mm for the superior-inferior (SI), lateral (LAT), and ventro-dorsal (VD) directions, respectively, and the differences of variabilities were also statistically significant. Thus, the appropriate treatment margins calculated from both systematic and random errors are 30.3, 41.0, and 50.8mm for the SI, LAT, and ventro-dorsal directions, respectively. Both intrafractional gastric motion and interfractional variability of the stomach shape were considerable during RT. We recommend regular verification of gastric movement and shape before and during RT to individualize treatment volume.

Variability of Stimulant Levels in Nine Sports Supplements Over a 9-Month Period.

PubMed

Attipoe, Selasi; Cohen, Pieter A; Eichner, Amy; Deuster, Patricia A

2016-10-01

Many studies have found that some dietary supplement product labels do not accurately reflect the actual ingredients. However, studies have not been performed to determine if ingredients in the same dietary supplement product vary over time. The objective of this study was to assess the consistency of stimulant ingredients in popular sports supplements sold in the United States over a 9-month period. Three samples of nine popular sports supplements were purchased over the 9-month period. The 27 samples were analyzed for caffeine and several other stimulants (including adulterants). The identity and quantity of stimulants were compared with stimulants listed on the label and stimulants found at earlier time points to determine the variability in individual products over the 9-month period. The primary outcome measure was the variability of stimulant amounts in the products examined. Many supplements did not contain the same number and quantity of stimulants at all time points over the 9-month period. Caffeine content varied widely in five of the six caffeinated supplements compared with the initial measurement (-7% to +266%). In addition, the stimulants-synephrine, octopamine, cathine, ephedrine, pseudoephedrine, strychnine, and methylephedrine-occurred in variable amounts in eight of the nine products. The significance of these findings is uncertain: the sample size was insufficient to support statistical analysis. In our sample of nine popular sports supplements, the presence and quantity of stimulants varied over a 9-month period. However, future studies are warranted to determine if the variability found is significant and generalizable to other supplements.

Extinction risk and eco-evolutionary dynamics in a variable environment with increasing frequency of extreme events.

PubMed

Vincenzi, Simone

2014-08-06

One of the most dramatic consequences of climate change will be the intensification and increased frequency of extreme events. I used numerical simulations to understand and predict the consequences of directional trend (i.e. mean state) and increased variability of a climate variable (e.g. temperature), increased probability of occurrence of point extreme events (e.g. floods), selection pressure and effect size of mutations on a quantitative trait determining individual fitness, as well as the their effects on the population and genetic dynamics of a population of moderate size. The interaction among climate trend, variability and probability of point extremes had a minor effect on risk of extinction, time to extinction and distribution of the trait after accounting for their independent effects. The survival chances of a population strongly and linearly decreased with increasing strength of selection, as well as with increasing climate trend and variability. Mutation amplitude had no effects on extinction risk, time to extinction or genetic adaptation to the new climate. Climate trend and strength of selection largely determined the shift of the mean phenotype in the population. The extinction or persistence of the populations in an 'extinction window' of 10 years was well predicted by a simple model including mean population size and mean genetic variance over a 10-year time frame preceding the 'extinction window', although genetic variance had a smaller role than population size in predicting contemporary risk of extinction. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

An equilibrium-point model for fast, single-joint movement: I. Emergence of strategy-dependent EMG patterns.

PubMed

Latash, M L; Gottlieb, G L

1991-09-01

We describe a model for the regulation of fast, single-joint movements, based on the equilibrium-point hypothesis. Limb movement follows constant rate shifts of independently regulated neuromuscular variables. The independently regulated variables are tentatively identified as thresholds of a length sensitive reflex for each of the participating muscles. We use the model to predict EMG patterns associated with changes in the conditions of movement execution, specifically, changes in movement times, velocities, amplitudes, and moments of limb inertia. The approach provides a theoretical neural framework for the dual-strategy hypothesis, which considers certain movements to be results of one of two basic, speed-sensitive or speed-insensitive strategies. This model is advanced as an alternative to pattern-imposing models based on explicit regulation of timing and amplitudes of signals that are explicitly manifest in the EMG patterns.

Investigating Surface and Near-Surface Bushfire Fuel Attributes: A Comparison between Visual Assessments and Image-Based Point Clouds

PubMed Central

Spits, Christine; Wallace, Luke; Reinke, Karin

2017-01-01

Visual assessment, following guides such as the Overall Fuel Hazard Assessment Guide (OFHAG), is a common approach for assessing the structure and hazard of varying bushfire fuel layers. Visual assessments can be vulnerable to imprecision due to subjectivity between assessors, while emerging techniques such as image-based point clouds can offer land managers potentially more repeatable descriptions of fuel structure. This study compared the variability of estimates of surface and near-surface fuel attributes generated by eight assessment teams using the OFHAG and Fuels3D, a smartphone method utilising image-based point clouds, within three assessment plots in an Australian lowland forest. Surface fuel hazard scores derived from underpinning attributes were also assessed. Overall, this study found considerable variability between teams on most visually assessed variables, resulting in inconsistent hazard scores. Variability was observed within point cloud estimates but was, however, on average two to eight times less than that seen in visual estimates, indicating greater consistency and repeatability of this method. It is proposed that while variability within the Fuels3D method may be overcome through improved methods and equipment, inconsistencies in the OFHAG are likely due to the inherent subjectivity between assessors, which may be more difficult to overcome. This study demonstrates the capability of the Fuels3D method to efficiently and consistently collect data on fuel hazard and structure, and, as such, this method shows potential for use in fire management practices where accurate and reliable data is essential. PMID:28425957

Prediction of problematic wine fermentations using artificial neural networks.

PubMed

Román, R César; Hernández, O Gonzalo; Urtubia, U Alejandra

2011-11-01

Artificial neural networks (ANNs) have been used for the recognition of non-linear patterns, a characteristic of bioprocesses like wine production. In this work, ANNs were tested to predict problems of wine fermentation. A database of about 20,000 data from industrial fermentations of Cabernet Sauvignon and 33 variables was used. Two different ways of inputting data into the model were studied, by points and by fermentation. Additionally, different sub-cases were studied by varying the predictor variables (total sugar, alcohol, glycerol, density, organic acids and nitrogen compounds) and the time of fermentation (72, 96 and 256 h). The input of data by fermentations gave better results than the input of data by points. In fact, it was possible to predict 100% of normal and problematic fermentations using three predictor variables: sugars, density and alcohol at 72 h (3 days). Overall, ANNs were capable of obtaining 80% of prediction using only one predictor variable at 72 h; however, it is recommended to add more fermentations to confirm this promising result.

Detecting correlation changes in multivariate time series: A comparison of four non-parametric change point detection methods.

PubMed

Cabrieto, Jedelyn; Tuerlinckx, Francis; Kuppens, Peter; Grassmann, Mariel; Ceulemans, Eva

2017-06-01

Change point detection in multivariate time series is a complex task since next to the mean, the correlation structure of the monitored variables may also alter when change occurs. DeCon was recently developed to detect such changes in mean and\\or correlation by combining a moving windows approach and robust PCA. However, in the literature, several other methods have been proposed that employ other non-parametric tools: E-divisive, Multirank, and KCP. Since these methods use different statistical approaches, two issues need to be tackled. First, applied researchers may find it hard to appraise the differences between the methods. Second, a direct comparison of the relative performance of all these methods for capturing change points signaling correlation changes is still lacking. Therefore, we present the basic principles behind DeCon, E-divisive, Multirank, and KCP and the corresponding algorithms, to make them more accessible to readers. We further compared their performance through extensive simulations using the settings of Bulteel et al. (Biological Psychology, 98 (1), 29-42, 2014) implying changes in mean and in correlation structure and those of Matteson and James (Journal of the American Statistical Association, 109 (505), 334-345, 2014) implying different numbers of (noise) variables. KCP emerged as the best method in almost all settings. However, in case of more than two noise variables, only DeCon performed adequately in detecting correlation changes.

Variability and Comprehensiveness of North American Online Available Physical Therapy Protocols Following Hip Arthroscopy for Femoroacetabular Impingement and Labral Repair.

PubMed

Cvetanovich, Gregory L; Lizzio, Vincent; Meta, Fabien; Chan, Derek; Zaltz, Ira; Nho, Shane J; Makhni, Eric C

2017-11-01

To assess comprehensiveness and variability of postoperative physical therapy protocols published online following hip arthroscopy for femoroacetabular impingement (FAI) and/or labral repair. Surgeons were identified by the International Society for Hip Arthroscopy "Find a Surgeon" feature in North America (http://www.isha.net/members/, search August 10, 2016). Exclusion criteria included nonsurgeons and protocols for conditions other than hip arthroscopy for FAI and/or labral tear. Protocols were identified by review of surgeons' personal and departmental websites and evaluated for postoperative restrictions, rehabilitation components, and the time points for ending restrictions and initiating activities. Of 111 surgeons available online, 31 (27.9%) had postoperative hip arthroscopy physical therapy protocols available online. Bracing was used in 54.8% (17/31) of protocols for median 2-week duration (range, 1-6 weeks). Most protocols specified the initial postoperative weight-bearing status (29/31, 93.5%), most frequently partial weight-bearing with 20 pounds foot flat (20/29, 69.0%). The duration of weight-bearing restriction was median 3 weeks (range, 2-6) for FAI and median 6 weeks (range, 3-8) for microfracture. The majority of protocols specified initial range of motion limitations (26/31, 83.9%) for median 3 weeks (range, 1.5-12). There was substantial variation in the rehabilitation activities and time points for initiating activities. Time to return to running was specified by 20/31 (64.5%) protocols at median 12 weeks (range, 6-19), and return to sport timing was specified by 13/31 (41.9%) protocols at median 15.5 weeks (range, 9-23). There is considerable variability in postoperative physical therapy protocols available online following hip arthroscopy for FAI, including postoperative restrictions, rehabilitation activities, and time points for activities. This information offers residents, fellows, and established hip arthroscopists a centralized comparison of publicly available physical therapy protocols following hip arthroscopy. Practicing arthroscopists might find this analysis useful to compare various therapy strategies to their own recommendations. The variability we report can also provide inspiration for future efficacy research toward a more standard rehabilitation. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Experimental design and efficient parameter estimation in preclinical pharmacokinetic studies.

PubMed

Ette, E I; Howie, C A; Kelman, A W; Whiting, B

1995-05-01

Monte Carlo simulation technique used to evaluate the effect of the arrangement of concentrations on the efficiency of estimation of population pharmacokinetic parameters in the preclinical setting is described. Although the simulations were restricted to the one compartment model with intravenous bolus input, they provide the basis of discussing some structural aspects involved in designing a destructive ("quantic") preclinical population pharmacokinetic study with a fixed sample size as is usually the case in such studies. The efficiency of parameter estimation obtained with sampling strategies based on the three and four time point designs were evaluated in terms of the percent prediction error, design number, individual and joint confidence intervals coverage for parameter estimates approaches, and correlation analysis. The data sets contained random terms for both inter- and residual intra-animal variability. The results showed that the typical population parameter estimates for clearance and volume were efficiently (accurately and precisely) estimated for both designs, while interanimal variability (the only random effect parameter that could be estimated) was inefficiently (inaccurately and imprecisely) estimated with most sampling schedules of the two designs. The exact location of the third and fourth time point for the three and four time point designs, respectively, was not critical to the efficiency of overall estimation of all population parameters of the model. However, some individual population pharmacokinetic parameters were sensitive to the location of these times.

Stages in Learning Motor Synergies: A View Based on the Equilibrium-Point Hypothesis

PubMed Central

Latash, Mark L.

2009-01-01

This review describes a novel view on stages in motor learning based on recent developments of the notion of synergies, the uncontrolled manifold hypothesis, and the equilibrium-point hypothesis (referent configuration) that allow to merge these notions into a single scheme of motor control. The principle of abundance and the principle of minimal final action form the foundation for analyses of natural motor actions performed by redundant sets of elements. Two main stages of motor learning are introduced corresponding to (1) discovery and strengthening of motor synergies stabilizing salient performance variable(s), and (2) their weakening when other aspects of motor performance are optimized. The first stage may be viewed as consisting of two steps, the elaboration of an adequate referent configuration trajectory and the elaboration of multi-joint (multi-muscle) synergies stabilizing the referent configuration trajectory. Both steps are expected to lead to more variance in the space of elemental variables that is compatible with a desired time profile of the salient performance variable (“good variability”). Adjusting control to other aspects of performance during the second stage (for example, esthetics, energy expenditure, time, fatigue, etc.) may lead to a drop in the “good variability”. Experimental support for the suggested scheme is reviewed. PMID:20060610

Levels and trends of childhood undernutrition by wealth and education according to a Composite Index of Anthropometric Failure: evidence from 146 Demographic and Health Surveys from 39 countries.

PubMed

Vollmer, Sebastian; Harttgen, Kenneth; Kupka, Roland; Subramanian, S V

2017-01-01

Governments have endorsed global targets to reduce childhood undernutrition as part of the Sustainable Development Goals. Understanding the socioeconomic differences in childhood undernutrition has the potential to be helpful for targeting policy to reach these goals. We specify a logistic regression model with the Composite Index of Anthropometric Failure (CIAF) as the outcome and indicator variables for wealth quartiles, maternal education categories and a set of covariates as explanatory variables. Wealth and education variables are interacted with a period indicator for 1990-2000 compared with 2001-2014 to observe differences over time. Based on these regressions we calculate predicted CIAF prevalence by wealth and education categories and over time. The sample included 146 surveys from 39 low-income and lower-middle-income countries with an overall sample size of 533 217 children. CIAF prevalence was 47.5% in 1990-2000, and it declined to 42.6% in 2001-2014. In 1990-2000 the CIAF prevalence of children with mothers with less than primary education was 31 percentage points higher than for mothers with secondary or higher education. This difference slightly decreased to 27 percentage points in 2001-2014. The difference in predicted CIAF prevalence of children from the highest and lowest wealth quartiles was 21 percentage points and did not change over time. We find evidence for persistent and even increasing socioeconomic inequalities in childhood undernutrition, which underlines the importance of previous calls for equity-driven approaches targeting the most vulnerable to reduce childhood malnutrition.

The variability in Oxford hip and knee scores in the preoperative period: is there an ideal time to score?

PubMed

Quah, C; Holmes, D; Khan, T; Cockshott, S; Lewis, J; Stephen, A

2018-01-01

Background All NHS-funded providers are required to collect and report patient-reported outcome measures for hip and knee arthroplasty. Although there are established guidelines for timing such measures following arthroplasty, there are no specific time-points for collection in the preoperative period. The primary aim of this study was to identify whether there was a significant amount of variability in the Oxford hip and knee scores prior to surgical intervention when completed in the outpatient clinic at the time of listing for arthroplasty or when completed at the preoperative assessment clinic. Methods A prospective cohort study of patients listed for primary hip or knee arthroplasty was conducted. Patients were asked to fill in a preoperative Oxford score in the outpatient clinic at the time of listing. They were then invited to fill in the official outcome measures questionnaire at the preoperative assessment clinic. The postoperative Oxford score was then completed when the patient was seen again at their postoperative follow up in clinic. Results Of the total of 109 patients included in this study period, there were 18 (17%) who had a worse score of 4 or more points difference and 43 (39.4%) who had an improvement of 4 or more points difference when the scores were compared between time of listing at the outpatient and at the preoperative assessment clinic. There was a statistically significant difference (P = 0.0054) in the mean Oxford scores. Conclusions The results of our study suggest that there should be standardisation of timing for completing the preoperative patient-reported outcome measures.

Response to depression treatment in the Aging Brain Care Medical Home model.

PubMed

LaMantia, Michael A; Perkins, Anthony J; Gao, Sujuan; Austrom, Mary G; Alder, Cathy A; French, Dustin D; Litzelman, Debra K; Cottingham, Ann H; Boustani, Malaz A

2016-01-01

To evaluate the effect of the Aging Brain Care (ABC) Medical Home program's depression module on patients' depression severity measurement over time. Retrospective chart review. Public hospital system. Patients enrolled in the ABC Medical Home program between October 1, 2012 and March 31, 2014. The response of 773 enrolled patients who had multiple patient health questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9) scores recorded in the ABC Medical Home program's depression care protocol was evaluated. Repeatedly measured PHQ-9 change scores were the dependent variables in the mixed effects models, and demographic and comorbid medical conditions were tested as potential independent variables while including random effects for time and intercept. Among those patients with baseline PHQ-9 scores >10, there was a significant decrease in PHQ-9 scores over time ( P <0.001); however, the effect differed by gender ( P =0.015). On average, women's scores (4.5 point drop at 1 month) improved faster than men's scores (1 point drop at 1 month). Moreover, both men and women had a predicted drop of 7 points (>50% decline from baseline) on the PHQ-9 at 6 months. These analyses demonstrate evidence for the sustained effectiveness of the ABC Medical Home program at inducing depression remission outcomes while employing clinical staff who required less formal training than earlier clinical trials.

A Novel Health Evaluation Strategy for Multifunctional Self-Validating Sensors

PubMed Central

Shen, Zhengguang; Wang, Qi

2013-01-01

The performance evaluation of sensors is very important in actual application. In this paper, a theory based on multi-variable information fusion is studied to evaluate the health level of multifunctional sensors. A novel conception of health reliability degree (HRD) is defined to indicate a quantitative health level, which is different from traditional so-called qualitative fault diagnosis. To evaluate the health condition from both local and global perspectives, the HRD of a single sensitive component at multiple time points and the overall multifunctional sensor at a single time point are defined, respectively. The HRD methodology is emphasized by using multi-variable data fusion technology coupled with a grey comprehensive evaluation method. In this method, to acquire the distinct importance of each sensitive unit and the sensitivity of different time points, the information entropy and analytic hierarchy process method are used, respectively. In order to verify the feasibility of the proposed strategy, a health evaluating experimental system for multifunctional self-validating sensors was designed. The five different health level situations have been discussed. Successful results show that the proposed method is feasible, the HRD could be used to quantitatively indicate the health level and it does have a fast response to the performance changes of multifunctional sensors. PMID:23291576

Early Childhood Development over Time for a Cohort of Australian Aboriginal Children Living in an Urban Environment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Grace, Rebekah; Elcombe, Emma; Knight, Jennifer; McMahon, Catherine; McDonald, Jenny; Comino, Elizabeth

2017-01-01

Child development for a cohort of urban Aboriginal children was assessed at three time points: 12 months, 3 years and 4.5 years. This paper reports developmental findings and explores the impact of child, family, home and community variables over time. Overall, child development at 4.5 years was significantly below the standardised mean. Female…

Trend analysis of precipitation in Jharkhand State, India. Investigating precipitation variability in Jharkhand State

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chandniha, Surendra Kumar; Meshram, Sarita Gajbhiye; Adamowski, Jan Franklin; Meshram, Chandrashekhar

2017-10-01

Jharkhand is one of the eastern states of India which has an agriculture-based economy. Uncertain and erratic distribution of precipitation as well as a lack of state water resources planning is the major limitation to crop growth in the region. In this study, the spatial and temporal variability in precipitation in the state was examined using a monthly precipitation time series of 111 years (1901-2011) from 18 meteorological stations. Autocorrelation and Mann-Kendall/modified Mann-Kendall tests were utilized to detect possible trends, and the Theil and Sen slope estimator test was used to determine the magnitude of change over the entire time series. The most probable change year (change point) was detected using the Pettitt-Mann-Whitney test, and the entire time series was sub-divided into two parts: before and after the change point. Arc-Map 9.3 software was utilized to assess the spatial patterns of the trends over the entire state. Annual precipitation exhibited a decreasing trend in 5 out of 18 stations during the whole period. For annual, monsoon and winter periods of precipitation, the slope test indicated a decreasing trend for all stations during 1901-2011. The highest variability was observed in post-monsoon precipitation (77.87 %) and the lowest variability was observed in the annual series (15.76 %) over the 111 years. An increasing trend in precipitation in the state was found during the period 1901-1949, which was reversed during the subsequent period (1950-2011).

Approximation methods for combined thermal/structural design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haftka, R. T.; Shore, C. P.

1979-01-01

Two approximation concepts for combined thermal/structural design are evaluated. The first concept is an approximate thermal analysis based on the first derivatives of structural temperatures with respect to design variables. Two commonly used first-order Taylor series expansions are examined. The direct and reciprocal expansions are special members of a general family of approximations, and for some conditions other members of that family of approximations are more accurate. Several examples are used to compare the accuracy of the different expansions. The second approximation concept is the use of critical time points for combined thermal and stress analyses of structures with transient loading conditions. Significant time savings are realized by identifying critical time points and performing the stress analysis for those points only. The design of an insulated panel which is exposed to transient heating conditions is discussed.

A model for helicopter guidance on spiral trajectories

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mendenhall, S.; Slater, G. L.

1980-01-01

A point mass model is developed for helicopter guidance on spiral trajectories. A fully coupled set of state equations is developed and perturbation equations suitable for 3-D and 4-D guidance are derived and shown to be amenable to conventional state variable feedback methods. Control variables are chosen to be the magnitude and orientation of the net rotor thrust. Using these variables reference controls for nonlevel accelerating trajectories are easily determined. The effects of constant wind are shown to require significant feedforward correction to some of the reference controls and to the time. Although not easily measured themselves, the controls variables chosen are shown to be easily related to the physical variables available in the cockpit.

A Ballistic Model of Choice Response Time

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brown, Scott; Heathcote, Andrew

2005-01-01

Almost all models of response time (RT) use a stochastic accumulation process. To account for the benchmark RT phenomena, researchers have found it necessary to include between-trial variability in the starting point and/or the rate of accumulation, both in linear (R. Ratcliff & J. N. Rouder, 1998) and nonlinear (M. Usher & J. L. McClelland, 2001)…

Identification and agreement of first turn point by mathematical analysis applied to heart rate, carbon dioxide output and electromyography

PubMed Central

Zamunér, Antonio R.; Catai, Aparecida M.; Martins, Luiz E. B.; Sakabe, Daniel I.; Silva, Ester Da

2013-01-01

Background The second heart rate (HR) turn point has been extensively studied, however there are few studies determining the first HR turn point. Also, the use of mathematical and statistical models for determining changes in dynamic characteristics of physiological variables during an incremental cardiopulmonary test has been suggested. Objectives To determine the first turn point by analysis of HR, surface electromyography (sEMG), and carbon dioxide output () using two mathematical models and to compare the results to those of the visual method. Method Ten sedentary middle-aged men (53.9±3.2 years old) were submitted to cardiopulmonary exercise testing on an electromagnetic cycle ergometer until exhaustion. Ventilatory variables, HR, and sEMG of the vastus lateralis were obtained in real time. Three methods were used to determine the first turn point: 1) visual analysis based on loss of parallelism between and oxygen uptake (); 2) the linear-linear model, based on fitting the curves to the set of data (Lin-Lin ); 3) a bi-segmental linear regression of Hinkley' s algorithm applied to HR (HMM-HR), (HMM- ), and sEMG data (HMM-RMS). Results There were no differences between workload, HR, and ventilatory variable values at the first ventilatory turn point as determined by the five studied parameters (p>0.05). The Bland-Altman plot showed an even distribution of the visual analysis method with Lin-Lin , HMM-HR, HMM-CO2, and HMM-RMS. Conclusion The proposed mathematical models were effective in determining the first turn point since they detected the linear pattern change and the deflection point of , HR responses, and sEMG. PMID:24346296

Identification and agreement of first turn point by mathematical analysis applied to heart rate, carbon dioxide output and electromyography.

PubMed

Zamunér, Antonio R; Catai, Aparecida M; Martins, Luiz E B; Sakabe, Daniel I; Da Silva, Ester

2013-01-01

The second heart rate (HR) turn point has been extensively studied, however there are few studies determining the first HR turn point. Also, the use of mathematical and statistical models for determining changes in dynamic characteristics of physiological variables during an incremental cardiopulmonary test has been suggested. To determine the first turn point by analysis of HR, surface electromyography (sEMG), and carbon dioxide output (VCO2) using two mathematical models and to compare the results to those of the visual method. Ten sedentary middle-aged men (53.9 ± 3.2 years old) were submitted to cardiopulmonary exercise testing on an electromagnetic cycle ergometer until exhaustion. Ventilatory variables, HR, and sEMG of the vastus lateralis were obtained in real time. Three methods were used to determine the first turn point: 1) visual analysis based on loss of parallelism between VCO2 and oxygen uptake (VO2); 2) the linear-linear model, based on fitting the curves to the set of VCO2 data (Lin-LinVCO2); 3) a bi-segmental linear regression of Hinkley's algorithm applied to HR (HMM-HR), VCO2 (HMM-VCO2), and sEMG data (HMM-RMS). There were no differences between workload, HR, and ventilatory variable values at the first ventilatory turn point as determined by the five studied parameters (p>0.05). The Bland-Altman plot showed an even distribution of the visual analysis method with Lin-LinVCO2, HMM-HR, HMM-VCO2, and HMM-RMS. The proposed mathematical models were effective in determining the first turn point since they detected the linear pattern change and the deflection point of VCO2, HR responses, and sEMG.

Options for Robust Airfoil Optimization under Uncertainty

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Padula, Sharon L.; Li, Wu

2002-01-01

A robust optimization method is developed to overcome point-optimization at the sampled design points. This method combines the best features from several preliminary methods proposed by the authors and their colleagues. The robust airfoil shape optimization is a direct method for drag reduction over a given range of operating conditions and has three advantages: (1) it prevents severe degradation in the off-design performance by using a smart descent direction in each optimization iteration, (2) it uses a large number of spline control points as design variables yet the resulting airfoil shape does not need to be smoothed, and (3) it allows the user to make a tradeoff between the level of optimization and the amount of computing time consumed. For illustration purposes, the robust optimization method is used to solve a lift-constrained drag minimization problem for a two-dimensional (2-D) airfoil in Euler flow with 20 geometric design variables.

What do we mean by the word “Shock”?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Runnels, Scott Robert

From one vantage point, a shock is a continuous but drastic change in state variables that occurs over very small time and length scales. These scales and associated changes in state variables can be measured experimentally. From another vantage point, a shock is a mathematical singularity consisting of instantaneous changes in state variables. This more mathematical view gives rise to analytical solutions to idealized problems. And from a third vantage point, a shock is a structure in a hydrocode prediction. Its width depends on the simulation’s grid resolution and artificial viscosity. These three vantage points can be in conflict whenmore » ideas from the associated fields are combined, and yet combining them is an important goal of an integrated modeling program. This presentation explores an example of how models for real materials in the presence of real shocks react to a hydrocode’s numerical shocks of finite width. The presentation will include an introduction to plasticity for the novice, an historical view of plasticity algorithms, a demonstration of how pursuing the meaning of “shock” has resulted in hydrocode improvements, and will conclude by answering some of the questions that arise from that pursuit. After the technical part of the presentation, a few slides advertising LANL’s Computational Physics Student Summer Workshop will be shown.« less

Searching for X-ray variability/periodicity in HD 4004.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wessolowski, U.; Niedzielski, A.

1996-02-01

The authors present preliminary results of a combined X-ray and optical search for variability/periodicity in HD 4004 (WR 1, WN5-s), an apparently single Wolf-Rayet star known to show radial velocity variations (Lamontagne 1983) and some variability both in photometry (Moffat and Shara 1986) and in optical line profiles (Niedzielski 1995). The two ROSAT PSPC pointed observations of HD 4004 (total effective exposure time of 35 ks) do not provide significant evidence for variability in X-rays. Line profile variations present in newly obtained optical spectra are similar to those of EZ CMa (WR 6, WN5-s+c?), the banner WR+compact companion candidate.

A study of the application of singular perturbation theory. [development of a real time algorithm for optimal three dimensional aircraft maneuvers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mehra, R. K.; Washburn, R. B.; Sajan, S.; Carroll, J. V.

1979-01-01

A hierarchical real time algorithm for optimal three dimensional control of aircraft is described. Systematic methods are developed for real time computation of nonlinear feedback controls by means of singular perturbation theory. The results are applied to a six state, three control variable, point mass model of an F-4 aircraft. Nonlinear feedback laws are presented for computing the optimal control of throttle, bank angle, and angle of attack. Real Time capability is assessed on a TI 9900 microcomputer. The breakdown of the singular perturbation approximation near the terminal point is examined Continuation methods are examined to obtain exact optimal trajectories starting from the singular perturbation solutions.

Insight as a social identity process in the evolution of psychosocial functioning in the early phase of psychosis.

PubMed

Klaas, H S; Clémence, A; Marion-Veyron, R; Antonietti, J-P; Alameda, L; Golay, P; Conus, P

2017-03-01

Awareness of illness (insight) has been found to have contradictory effects for different functional outcomes after the early course of psychosis. Whereas it is related to psychotic symptom reduction and medication adherence, it is also associated with increased depressive symptoms. In this line, the specific effects of insight on the evolution of functioning over time have not been identified, and social indicators, such as socio-occupational functioning have barely been considered. Drawing from social identity theory we investigated the impact of insight on the development of psychosocial outcomes and the interactions of these variables over time. The participants, 240 patients in early phase of psychosis from the Treatment and Early Intervention in Psychosis Program (TIPP) of the University Hospital of Lausanne, Switzerland, were assessed at eight time points over 3 years. Cross-lagged panel analyses and multilevel analyses were conducted on socio-occupational and general functioning [Social and Occupational Functioning Assessment Scale (SOFAS) and Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF)] with insight, time and depressive symptoms as independent variables. Results from multilevel analyses point to an overall positive impact of insight on psychosocial functioning, which increases over time. Yet the cross-lagged panel analysis did not reveal a systematic positive and causal effect of insight on SOFAS and GAF scores. Depressive symptoms seem only to be relevant in the beginning of the treatment process. Our results point to a complex process in which the positive impact of insight on psychosocial functioning increases over time, even when considering depressive symptoms. Future studies and treatment approaches should consider the procedural aspect of insight.

Predictors of academic success for Māori, Pacific and non-Māori non-Pacific students in health professional education: a quantitative analysis.

PubMed

Wikaire, Erena; Curtis, Elana; Cormack, Donna; Jiang, Yannan; McMillan, Louise; Loto, Rob; Reid, Papaarangi

2017-05-01

Tertiary institutions internationally aim to increase student diversity, however are struggling to achieve equitable academic outcomes for indigenous and ethnic minority students and detailed exploration of factors that impact on success is required. This study explored the predictive effect of admission variables on academic outcomes for health professional students by ethnic grouping. Kaupapa Māori and Pacific research methodologies were used to conduct a quantitative analysis using data for 2686 health professional students [150 Māori, 257 Pacific, 2279, non-Māori non-Pacific (nMnP)]. The predictive effect of admission variables: school decile; attending school in Auckland; type of admission; bridging programme; and first-year bachelor results on academic outcomes: year 2-4 grade point average (GPA); graduating; graduating in the minimum time; and optimal completion for the three ethnic groupings and the full cohort was explored using multiple regression analyses. After adjusting for admission variables, for every point increase in first year bachelor GPA: year 2-4 GPA increased by an average of 0.46 points for Māori (p = 0.0002, 95% CI 0.22, 0.69), 0.70 points for Pacific (p < 0.0001, CI 0.52, 0.87), and 0.55 points for nMnP (p < 0.0001, CI 0.51, 0.58) students. For the total cohort, ethnic grouping was consistently the most significant predictor of academic outcomes. This study demonstrated clear differences in academic outcomes between both Māori and Pacific students when compared to nMnP students. Some (but not all) of the disparities between ethnic groupings could be explained by controlling for admission variables.

a Empirical Modelation of Runoff in Small Watersheds Using LIDAR Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lopatin, J.; Hernández, J.; Galleguillos, M.; Mancilla, G.

2013-12-01

Hydrological models allow the simulation of water natural processes and also the quantification and prediction of the effects of human impacts in runoff behavior. However, obtaining the information that is need for applying these models can be costly in both time and resources, especially in large and difficult to access areas. The objective of this research was to integrate LiDAR data in the hydrological modeling of runoff in small watersheds, using derivated hydrologic, vegetation and topography variables. The study area includes 10 small head watersheds cover bay forest, between 2 and 16 ha, which are located in the south-central coastal range of Chile. In each of the former instantaneous rainfall and runoff flow of a total of 15 rainfall events were measured, between August 2012 and July 2013, yielding a total of 79 observations. In March 2011 a Harrier 54/G4 Dual System was used to obtain a LiDAR point cloud of discrete pulse with an average of 4.64 points per square meter. A Digital Terrain Model (DTM) of 1 meter resolution was obtained from the point cloud, and subsequently 55 topographic variables were derived, such as physical watershed parameters and morphometric features. At the same time, 30 vegetation descriptive variables were obtained directly from the point cloud and from a Digital Canopy Model (DCM). The classification and regression "Random Forest" (RF) algorithm was used to select the most important variables in predicting water height (liters), and the "Partial Least Squares Path Modeling" (PLS-PM) algorithm was used to fit a model using the selected set of variables. Four Latent variables were selected (outer model) related to: climate, topography, vegetation and runoff, where in each one was designated a group of the predictor variables selected by RF (inner model). The coefficient of determination (R2) and Goodnes-of-Fit (GoF) of the final model were obtained. The best results were found when modeling using only the upper 50th percentile of rainfall events. The best variables selected by the RF algorithm were three topographic variables and three vegetation related ones. We obtained an R2 of 0.82 and a GoF of 0.87 with a 95% of confidence interval. This study shows that it is possible to predict the water harvesting collected during a rainstorm event in forest environment using only LiDAR data. However, this type of methodology does not have good result in flow produced by low magnitude rainfall events, as these are more influenced by initial conditions of soil, vegetation and climate, which make their behavior slower and erratic.

Bioprocess development workflow: Transferable physiological knowledge instead of technological correlations.

PubMed

Reichelt, Wieland N; Haas, Florian; Sagmeister, Patrick; Herwig, Christoph

2017-01-01

Microbial bioprocesses need to be designed to be transferable from lab scale to production scale as well as between setups. Although substantial effort is invested to control technological parameters, usually the only true constant parameter is the actual producer of the product: the cell. Hence, instead of solely controlling technological process parameters, the focus should be increasingly laid on physiological parameters. This contribution aims at illustrating a workflow of data life cycle management with special focus on physiology. Information processing condenses the data into physiological variables, while information mining condenses the variables further into physiological descriptors. This basis facilitates data analysis for a physiological explanation for observed phenomena in productivity. Targeting transferability, we demonstrate this workflow using an industrially relevant Escherichia coli process for recombinant protein production and substantiate the following three points: (1) The postinduction phase is independent in terms of productivity and physiology from the preinduction variables specific growth rate and biomass at induction. (2) The specific substrate uptake rate during induction phase was found to significantly impact the maximum specific product titer. (3) The time point of maximum specific titer can be predicted by an easy accessible physiological variable: while the maximum specific titers were reached at different time points (19.8 ± 7.6 h), those maxima were reached all within a very narrow window of cumulatively consumed substrate dSn (3.1 ± 0.3 g/g). Concluding, this contribution provides a workflow on how to gain a physiological view on the process and illustrates potential benefits. © 2016 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Biotechnol. Prog., 33:261-270, 2017. © 2016 American Institute of Chemical Engineers.

Bayesian change-point analyses in ecology

Treesearch

Brian Bekcage; Lawrence Joseph; Patrick Belisle; David B. Wolfson; William J. Platt

2007-01-01

Ecological and biological processes can change from one state to another once a threshold has been crossed in space or time. Threshold responses to incremental changes in underlying variables can characterize diverse processes from climate change to the desertification of arid lands from overgrazing.

Detection, attribution, and sensitivity of trends toward earlier streamflow in the Sierra Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Maurer, E.P.; Stewart, I.T.; Bonfils, Celine; Duffy, P.B.; Cayan, D.

2007-01-01

Observed changes in the timing of snowmelt dominated streamflow in the western United States are often linked to anthropogenic or other external causes. We assess whether observed streamflow timing changes can be statistically attributed to external forcing, or whether they still lie within the bounds of natural (internal) variability for four large Sierra Nevada (CA) basins, at inflow points to major reservoirs. Streamflow timing is measured by "center timing" (CT), the day when half the annual flow has passed a given point. We use a physically based hydrology model driven by meteorological input from a global climate model to quantify the natural variability in CT trends. Estimated 50-year trends in CT due to natural climate variability often exceed estimated actual CT trends from 1950 to 1999. Thus, although observed trends in CT to date may be statistically significant, they cannot yet be statistically attributed to external influences on climate. We estimate that projected CT changes at the four major reservoir inflows will, with 90% confidence, exceed those from natural variability within 1-4 decades or 4-8 decades, depending on rates of future greenhouse gas emissions. To identify areas most likely to exhibit CT changes in response to rising temperatures, we calculate changes in CT under temperature increases from 1 to 5??. We find that areas with average winter temperatures between -2??C and -4??C are most likely to respond with significant CT shifts. Correspondingly, elevations from 2000 to 2800 in are most sensitive to temperature increases, with CT changes exceeding 45 days (earlier) relative to 1961-1990. Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union.

Impacts of variability in cellulosic biomass yields on energy security.

PubMed

Mullins, Kimberley A; Matthews, H Scott; Griffin, W Michael; Anex, Robert

2014-07-01

The practice of modeling biomass yields on the basis of deterministic point values aggregated over space and time obscures important risks associated with large-scale biofuel use, particularly risks related to drought-induced yield reductions that may become increasingly frequent under a changing climate. Using switchgrass as a case study, this work quantifies the variability in expected yields over time and space through switchgrass growth modeling under historical and simulated future weather. The predicted switchgrass yields across the United States range from about 12 to 19 Mg/ha, and the 80% confidence intervals range from 20 to 60% of the mean. Average yields are predicted to decrease with increased temperatures and weather variability induced by climate change. Feedstock yield variability needs to be a central part of modeling to ensure that policy makers acknowledge risks to energy supplies and develop strategies or contingency plans that mitigate those risks.

Instance-Based Learning: Integrating Sampling and Repeated Decisions from Experience

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gonzalez, Cleotilde; Dutt, Varun

2011-01-01

In decisions from experience, there are 2 experimental paradigms: sampling and repeated-choice. In the sampling paradigm, participants sample between 2 options as many times as they want (i.e., the stopping point is variable), observe the outcome with no real consequences each time, and finally select 1 of the 2 options that cause them to earn or…

Mesoscale Circulation Variability from Five years of Quasi-continuous Glider Observations and Numerical Simulation at a Key Sub-basin 'Choke' Point.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heslop, E. E.; Mourre, B.; Juza, M.; Troupin, C.; Escudier, R.; Torner, M.; Tintore, J.

2016-02-01

Quasi-continuous glider observations over 5 years have uniquely characterised a high frequency variability in the circulation through the Ibiza Channel, an important `choke' point in the Western Mediterranean Sea. This `choke' point governs the basin/sub-basin scale circulation and the north/south exchanges of different water masses. The resulting multi-scale variability impacts the regional shelf and open ocean ecosystems, including the spawning grounds of Atlantic bluefin tuna. Through the unique glider record we show the relevance of the weekly/mesoscale variability, which is of same order as the previously established seasonal and inter-annual variability. To understand the drivers of this variability we combine the glider data with numerical simulations (WMOP) and altimetry. Two key drivers are identified; extreme winter events, which cause the formation of a cold winter mode water (Winter Intermediate Water) in the shelf areas to the north of the Ibiza Channel, and mesoscale activity, which to the north produce channel `blocking' eddies and to the south intermittent and vigorous flows of fresher `Atlantic' waters through the Ibiza Channel. Results from the 2 km resolution WMOP are compared with the high-resolution (2 - 3 km.) glider data, giving insight into model validation across different scales, for both circulation and water masses. There is an emerging consensus that gliders can uniquely access critical time and length scales and in this study gliders complement existing satellite measurements and models, while opening up new capabilities for multidisciplinary, autonomous and high-resolution ocean observation.

Effects of temporal averaging on short-term irradiance variability under mixed sky conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lohmann, Gerald M.; Monahan, Adam H.

2018-05-01

Characterizations of short-term variability in solar radiation are required to successfully integrate large numbers of photovoltaic power systems into the electrical grid. Previous studies have used ground-based irradiance observations with a range of different temporal resolutions and a systematic analysis of the effects of temporal averaging on the representation of variability is lacking. Using high-resolution surface irradiance data with original temporal resolutions between 0.01 and 1 s from six different locations in the Northern Hemisphere, we characterize the changes in representation of temporal variability resulting from time averaging. In this analysis, we condition all data to states of mixed skies, which are the most potentially problematic in terms of local PV power volatility. Statistics of clear-sky index k* and its increments Δk*τ (i.e., normalized surface irradiance and changes therein over specified intervals of time) are considered separately. Our results indicate that a temporal averaging time scale of around 1 s marks a transition in representing single-point irradiance variability, such that longer averages result in substantial underestimates of variability. Higher-resolution data increase the complexity of data management and quality control without appreciably improving the representation of variability. The results do not show any substantial discrepancies between locations or seasons.

Effect of climate variables on cocoa black pod incidence in Sabah using ARIMAX model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ling Sheng Chang, Albert; Ramba, Haya; Mohd. Jaaffar, Ahmad Kamil; Kim Phin, Chong; Chong Mun, Ho

2016-06-01

Cocoa black pod disease is one of the major diseases affecting the cocoa production in Malaysia and also around the world. Studies have shown that the climate variables have influenced the cocoa black pod disease incidence and it is important to quantify the black pod disease variation due to the effect of climate variables. Application of time series analysis especially auto-regressive moving average (ARIMA) model has been widely used in economics study and can be used to quantify the effect of climate variables on black pod incidence to forecast the right time to control the incidence. However, ARIMA model does not capture some turning points in cocoa black pod incidence. In order to improve forecasting performance, other explanatory variables such as climate variables should be included into ARIMA model as ARIMAX model. Therefore, this paper is to study the effect of climate variables on the cocoa black pod disease incidence using ARIMAX model. The findings of the study showed ARIMAX model using MA(1) and relative humidity at lag 7 days, RHt - 7 gave better R square value compared to ARIMA model using MA(1) which could be used to forecast the black pod incidence to assist the farmers determine timely application of fungicide spraying and culture practices to control the black pod incidence.

Temporal variability in lipoprotein(a) levels in patients enrolled in the placebo arms of IONIS-APO(a)Rx and IONIS-APO(a)-LRx antisense oligonucleotide clinical trials.

PubMed

Marcovina, Santica M; Viney, Nicholas J; Hughes, Steven G; Xia, Shuting; Witztum, Joseph L; Tsimikas, Sotirios

Lipoprotein(a) [Lp(a)] levels are primarily genetically determined, but their natural variability is not well known. The aim of the study was to evaluate the short-term temporal variability in Lp(a) in 3 placebo groups from the IONIS-APO(a) Rx and IONIS-APO(a)-L Rx trials. The placebo groups comprised 3 studies: Study 1 with 10 subjects with any Lp(a) concentration; Study 2 with 13 subjects with Lp(a) ≥75 nmol/L (∼30 mg/dL); and Study 3 with 29 patients with Lp(a) ≥125 nmol/L (≥∼50 mg/dL). Lp(a) was measured in serial blood samples (range 7-12 samples up to 190 days of follow-up) and analyzed as absolute change and mean percent change from baseline. Outliers were defined as having a > ±25% difference in Lp(a) from baseline at any future time point. No significant temporal differences in mean absolute Lp(a) levels were present in any group. However, among individuals, the mean change in absolute Lp(a) levels at any time point ranged from -16.2 to +7.0 nmol/L in Study 1, -15.8 to +9.8 nmol/L in Study 2, and -60.2 to +16.6 nmol/L in Study 3. The mean percent change from baseline ranged from -9.4% to +21.6% for Study 1, -13.1% to 2.8% for Study 2, and -12.1% to +4.9% in Study 3. A total of 21 of 52 subjects (40.4%) were outliers, with 13 (62%) >25% up and 8 (38%) >25% down. Significant variability was also noted in other lipid parameters, but no outliers were noted with serum albumin. In subjects randomized to placebo in Lp(a) lowering trials, modest intra-individual temporal variability of mean Lp(a) levels was present. Significant number of subjects had > ±25% variation in Lp(a) in at least 1 time point. Although Lp(a) levels are primarily genetically determined, further study is required to define additional factors mediating short-term variability. Copyright © 2017 National Lipid Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Detecting P and S-wave of Mt. Rinjani seismic based on a locally stationary autoregressive (LSAR) model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nurhaida, Subanar, Abdurakhman, Abadi, Agus Maman

2017-08-01

Seismic data is usually modelled using autoregressive processes. The aim of this paper is to find the arrival times of the seismic waves of Mt. Rinjani in Indonesia. Kitagawa algorithm's is used to detect the seismic P and S-wave. Householder transformation used in the algorithm made it effectively finding the number of change points and parameters of the autoregressive models. The results show that the use of Box-Cox transformation on the variable selection level makes the algorithm works well in detecting the change points. Furthermore, when the basic span of the subinterval is set 200 seconds and the maximum AR order is 20, there are 8 change points which occur at 1601, 2001, 7401, 7601,7801, 8001, 8201 and 9601. Finally, The P and S-wave arrival times are detected at time 1671 and 2045 respectively using a precise detection algorithm.

1SXPS: A Deep Swift X-Ray Telescope Point Source Catalog with Light Curves and Spectra

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Evans, P. A.; Osborne, J. P.; Beardmore, A. P.; Page, K. L.; Willingale, R.; Mountford, C. J.; Pagani, C.; Burrows, D. N.; Kennea, J. A.; Perri, M.;

Mapping current and potential distribution of non-native Prosopis juliflora in the Afar region of Ethiopia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wakie, Tewodros; Evangelista, Paul H.; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Laituri, Melinda

2014-01-01

We used correlative models with species occurrence points, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) vegetation indices, and topo-climatic predictors to map the current distribution and potential habitat of invasive Prosopis juliflora in Afar, Ethiopia. Time-series of MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Indices (EVI) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Indices (NDVI) with 250 m2 spatial resolution were selected as remote sensing predictors for mapping distributions, while WorldClim bioclimatic products and generated topographic variables from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission product (SRTM) were used to predict potential infestations. We ran Maxent models using non-correlated variables and the 143 species-occurrence points. Maxent generated probability surfaces were converted into binary maps using the 10-percentile logistic threshold values. Performances of models were evaluated using area under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC). Our results indicate that the extent of P. juliflora invasion is approximately 3,605 km2 in the Afar region (AUC = 0.94), while the potential habitat for future infestations is 5,024 km2 (AUC = 0.95). Our analyses demonstrate that time-series of MODIS vegetation indices and species occurrence points can be used with Maxent modeling software to map the current distribution of P. juliflora, while topo-climatic variables are good predictors of potential habitat in Ethiopia. Our results can quantify current and future infestations, and inform management and policy decisions for containing P. juliflora. Our methods can also be replicated for managing invasive species in other East African countries.

Precise determination of time to reach viral load set point after acute HIV-1 infection.

PubMed

Huang, Xiaojie; Chen, Hui; Li, Wei; Li, Haiying; Jin, Xia; Perelson, Alan S; Fox, Zoe; Zhang, Tong; Xu, Xiaoning; Wu, Hao

2012-12-01

The HIV viral load set point has long been used as a prognostic marker of disease progression and more recently as an end-point parameter in HIV vaccine clinical trials. The definition of set point, however, is variable. Moreover, the earliest time at which the set point is reached after the onset of infection has never been clearly defined. In this study, we obtained sequential plasma viral load data from 60 acutely HIV-infected Chinese patients among a cohort of men who have sex with men, mathematically determined viral load set point levels, and estimated time to attain set point after infection. We also compared the results derived from our models and that obtained from an empirical method. With novel uncomplicated mathematic model, we discovered that set points may vary from 21 to 119 days dependent on the patients' initial viral load trajectory. The viral load set points were 4.28 ± 0.86 and 4.25 ± 0.87 log10 copies per milliliter (P = 0.08), respectively, as determined by our model and an empirical method, suggesting an excellent agreement between the old and new methods. We provide a novel method to estimate viral load set point at the very early stage of HIV infection. Application of this model can accurately and reliably determine the set point, thus providing a new tool for physicians to better monitor early intervention strategies in acutely infected patients and scientists to rationally design preventative vaccine studies.

Trends and Divergences in Childhood Income Dynamics, 1970-2010.

PubMed

Hill, Heather D

2018-01-01

Earnings and income variability have increased since the 1970s, particularly at the bottom of the income distribution. Considerable evidence suggests that childhood income levels-captured as average or point-in-time yearly income-are associated with numerous child and adult outcomes. The importance to child development of stable proximal processes during childhood suggests that income variability may also be important, particularly if it is unpredictable, unintentional, or does not reflect an upward trend in family income. Using the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, this study documents trends since the 1970s in three dimensions of childhood income dynamics: level, variability, and growth (n=7991). The analysis reveals that income variability during childhood has grown over time, while income growth rates have not. In addition, the economic context of childhood has diverged substantially by socioeconomic status, race, and family structure, with the most disadvantaged children facing a double-whammy of low income and high variability. © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Uncertainty Quantification of Water Quality in Tamsui River in Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kao, D.; Tsai, C.

2017-12-01

In Taiwan, modeling of non-point source pollution is unavoidably associated with uncertainty. The main purpose of this research is to better understand water contamination in the metropolitan Taipei area, and also to provide a new analysis method for government or companies to establish related control and design measures. In this research, three methods are utilized to carry out the uncertainty analysis step by step with Mike 21, which is widely used for hydro-dynamics and water quality modeling, and the study area is focused on Tamsui river watershed. First, a sensitivity analysis is conducted which can be used to rank the order of influential parameters and variables such as Dissolved Oxygen, Nitrate, Ammonia and Phosphorous. Then we use the First-order error method (FOEA) to determine the number of parameters that could significantly affect the variability of simulation results. Finally, a state-of-the-art method for uncertainty analysis called the Perturbance moment method (PMM) is applied in this research, which is more efficient than the Monte-Carlo simulation (MCS). For MCS, the calculations may become cumbersome when involving multiple uncertain parameters and variables. For PMM, three representative points are used for each random variable, and the statistical moments (e.g., mean value, standard deviation) for the output can be presented by the representative points and perturbance moments based on the parallel axis theorem. With the assumption of the independent parameters and variables, calculation time is significantly reduced for PMM as opposed to MCS for a comparable modeling accuracy.

Long-term variability of T Tauri stars using WASP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rigon, Laura; Scholz, Alexander; Anderson, David; West, Richard

2017-03-01

We present a reference study of the long-term optical variability of young stars using data from the WASP project. Our primary sample is a group of well-studied classical T Tauri stars (CTTSs), mostly in Taurus-Auriga. WASP light curves cover time-scales of up to 7 yr and typically contain 10 000-30 000 data points. We quantify the variability as a function of time-scale using the time-dependent standard deviation 'pooled sigma'. We find that the overwhelming majority of CTTSs have a low-level variability with σ < 0.3 mag dominated by time-scales of a few weeks, consistent with rotational modulation. Thus, for most young stars, monitoring over a month is sufficient to constrain the total amount of variability over time-scales of up to a decade. The fraction of stars with a strong optical variability (σ > 0.3 mag) is 21 per cent in our sample and 21 per cent in an unbiased control sample. An even smaller fraction (13 per cent in our sample, 6 per cent in the control) show evidence for an increase in variability amplitude as a function of time-scale from weeks to months or years. The presence of long-term variability correlates with the spectral slope at 3-5 μm, which is an indicator of inner disc geometry, and with the U-B band slope, which is an accretion diagnostics. This shows that the long-term variations in CTTSs are predominantly driven by processes in the inner disc and in the accretion zone. Four of the stars with long-term variations show periods of 20-60 d, significantly longer than the rotation periods and stable over months to years. One possible explanation is cyclic changes in the interaction between the disc and the stellar magnetic field.

Wet-bulb, dew point, and air temperature trends in Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moratiel, R.; Soriano, B.; Centeno, A.; Spano, D.; Snyder, R. L.

2017-10-01

This study analyses trends of mean ( T m), maximum ( T x), minimum ( T n), dew point ( T d), and wet-bulb temperatures ( T w) on an annual, seasonal, and monthly time scale over Spain during the period 1981-2010. The main purpose was to determine how temperature and humidity changes are impacting on T w, which is probably a better measure of climate change than temperature alone. In this study, 43 weather stations were used to detect data trends using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test and the Sen method to estimate the slope of trends. Significant linear trends observed for T m, T x, and T n versus year were 56, 58, and 47 % of the weather stations, respectively, with temperature ranges between 0.2 and 0.4 °C per decade. The months with bigger trends were April, May, June, and July with the highest trend for T x. The spatial behaviour of T d and T w was variable, with various locations showing trends from -0.6 to +0.3 °C per decade for T d and from -0.4 to +0.5 °C per decade for T w. Both T d and T w showed negative trends for July, August, September, November, and December. Comparing the trends versus time of each variable versus each of the other variables exhibited poor relationships, which means you cannot predict the trend of one variable from the trend of another variable. The trend of T x was not related to the trend of T n. The trends of T x, T m, and T n versus time were unrelated to the trends versus time of either T d or T w. The trend of T w showed a high coefficient of determination with the trend of T d with an annual value of R 2 = 0.86. Therefore, the T w trend is more related to changes in humidity than temperature.

On the photo-gravitational restricted four-body problem with variable mass

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mittal, Amit; Agarwal, Rajiv; Suraj, Md Sanam; Arora, Monika

2018-05-01

This paper deals with the photo-gravitational restricted four-body problem (PR4BP) with variable mass. Following the procedure given by Gascheau (C. R. 16:393-394, 1843) and Routh (Proc. Lond. Math. Soc. 6:86-97, 1875), the conditions of linear stability of Lagrange triangle solution in the PR4BP are determined. The three radiating primaries having masses m1, m2 and m3 in an equilateral triangle with m2=m3 will be stable as long as they satisfy the linear stability condition of the Lagrangian triangle solution. We have derived the equations of motion of the mentioned problem and observed that there exist eight libration points for a fixed value of parameters γ (m at time t/m at initial time, 0<γ≤1 ), α (the proportionality constant in Jeans' law (Astronomy and Cosmogony, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1928), 0≤α≤2.2), the mass parameter μ=0.005 and radiation parameters qi, (0< qi≤1, i=1, 2, 3). All the libration points are non-collinear if q2≠ q3. It has been observed that the collinear and out-of-plane libration points also exist for q2=q3. In all the cases, each libration point is found to be unstable. Further, zero velocity curves (ZVCs) and Newton-Raphson basins of attraction are also discussed.

Cosmic infinity: a dynamical system approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouhmadi-López, Mariam; Marto, João; Morais, João; Silva, César M.

2017-03-01

Dynamical system techniques are extremely useful to study cosmology. It turns out that in most of the cases, we deal with finite isolated fixed points corresponding to a given cosmological epoch. However, it is equally important to analyse the asymptotic behaviour of the universe. On this paper, we show how this can be carried out for 3-form models. In fact, we show that there are fixed points at infinity mainly by introducing appropriate compactifications and defining a new time variable that washes away any potential divergence of the system. The richness of 3-form models allows us as well to identify normally hyperbolic non-isolated fixed points. We apply this analysis to three physically interesting situations: (i) a pre-inflationary era; (ii) an inflationary era; (iii) the late-time dark matter/dark energy epoch.

An Assessment of the Impact of Hafting on Paleoindian Point Variability

PubMed Central

Buchanan, Briggs; O'Brien, Michael J.; Kilby, J. David; Huckell, Bruce B.; Collard, Mark

2012-01-01

It has long been argued that the form of North American Paleoindian points was affected by hafting. According to this hypothesis, hafting constrained point bases such that they are less variable than point blades. The results of several studies have been claimed to be consistent with this hypothesis. However, there are reasons to be skeptical of these results. None of the studies employed statistical tests, and all of them focused on points recovered from kill and camp sites, which makes it difficult to be certain that the differences in variability are the result of hafting rather than a consequence of resharpening. Here, we report a study in which we tested the predictions of the hafting hypothesis by statistically comparing the variability of different parts of Clovis points. We controlled for the potentially confounding effects of resharpening by analyzing largely unused points from caches as well as points from kill and camp sites. The results of our analyses were not consistent with the predictions of the hypothesis. We found that several blade characters and point thickness were no more variable than the base characters. Our results indicate that the hafting hypothesis does not hold for Clovis points and indicate that there is a need to test its applicability in relation to post-Clovis Paleoindian points. PMID:22666320

Trajectories of marital, parent-child, and sibling conflict during pediatric cancer treatment.

PubMed

Katz, Lynn Fainsilber; Fladeboe, Kaitlyn; Lavi, Iris; King, Kevin; Kawamura, Joy; Friedman, Debra; Compas, Bruce; Breiger, David; Lengua, Liliana; Gurtovenko, Kyrill; Stettler, Nicole

2018-05-28

The stress of having a child with cancer can impact the quality of relationships within the family. The current study describes the longitudinal trajectory of marital, parent-child, and sibling conflict beginning around the time of diagnosis through the first year of treatment. We examined the average level of marital, parent-child, and sibling conflict at each monthly time point in the first year of treatment; the proportion of families that fall into the distressed range of marital, parent-child, and sibling conflict at each time point; the typical trajectory of conflict during the first year of treatment and whether there are differences in trajectories across families. A total of 160 families of children newly diagnosed with cancer (Mage = 5.6 years; range = 2-18 years) participated in a short-term prospective longitudinal study. Primary caregivers provided monthly reports of marital, parent-child, and sibling conflict. Using multilevel modeling (MLM), most families showed stability in quality of family relationships, although considerable between-family variability was observed. For married couples, 25-36% of couples were in the distressed range at one time point over the first year of treatment. For married couples, more distress occurred at earlier months, particularly month 3. For parent-child and sibling dyads, the most difficult time periods were during later months. Implications for development of interventions that target at-risk family relationships are discussed. Identifying processes that predict between-family variability in trajectories of family relationships is an important next step, particularly for the marital relationship. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Stochastic modeling of neurobiological time series: Power, coherence, Granger causality, and separation of evoked responses from ongoing activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yonghong; Bressler, Steven L.; Knuth, Kevin H.; Truccolo, Wilson A.; Ding, Mingzhou

2006-06-01

In this article we consider the stochastic modeling of neurobiological time series from cognitive experiments. Our starting point is the variable-signal-plus-ongoing-activity model. From this model a differentially variable component analysis strategy is developed from a Bayesian perspective to estimate event-related signals on a single trial basis. After subtracting out the event-related signal from recorded single trial time series, the residual ongoing activity is treated as a piecewise stationary stochastic process and analyzed by an adaptive multivariate autoregressive modeling strategy which yields power, coherence, and Granger causality spectra. Results from applying these methods to local field potential recordings from monkeys performing cognitive tasks are presented.

Comparison of the basin-scale effect of dredging operations and natural estuarine processes on suspended sediment concentration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schoellhamer, D.H.

2002-01-01

Suspended sediment concentration (SSC) data from San Pablo Bay, California, were analyzed to compare the basin-scale effect of dredging and disposal of dredged material (dredging operations) and natural estuarine processes. The analysis used twelve 3-wk to 5-wk periods of mid-depth and near-bottom SSC data collected at Point San Pablo every 15 min from 1993-1998. Point San Pablo is within a tidal excursion of a dredged-material disposal site. The SSC data were compared to dredging volume, Julian day, and hydrodynamic and meteorological variables that could affect SSC. Kendall's ??, Spearman's ??, and weighted (by the fraction of valid data in each period) Spearman's ??w correlation coefficients of the variables indicated which variables were significantly correlated with SSC. Wind-wave resuspension had the greatest effect on SSC. Median water-surface elevation was the primary factor affecting mid-depth SSC. Greater depths inhibit wind-wave resuspension of bottom sediment and indicate greater influence of less turbid water from down estuary. Seasonal variability in the supply of erodible sediment is the primary factor affecting near-bottom SSC. Natural physical processes in San Pablo Bay are more areally extensive, of equal or longer duration, and as frequent as dredging operations (when occurring), and they affect SSC at the tidal time scale. Natural processes control SSC at Point San Pablo even when dredging operations are occurring.

That's close enough--a threshold effect of time headway on the experience of risk, task difficulty, effort, and comfort.

PubMed

Lewis-Evans, Ben; De Waard, Dick; Brookhuis, Karel A

2010-11-01

Subjective impressions of task difficulty, risk, effort, and comfort are key variables of several theories of driver behaviour. A point of difference between many of these theories is not only the importance of these variables, but also whether they are continuously present and monitored or only experienced by individuals at certain critical points in the driving task. Both a threshold relationship and evidence of constant monitoring of risk and task difficulty have been found for speed choice. In light of these conflicting findings this study seeks to examine a different part of the driving task, the choice of time headway. Participants (N=40, aged 19 to 30) drove in a simulator behind a vehicle travelling at 50 km/h at set time headways ranging from 0.5 seconds to 4.0 seconds. After each drive ratings of task difficulty, risk, comfort, and effort were collected. In addition participants were asked to drive at the time headway they preferred. In order to assess familiarity participants also drove on both the left and right hand side of the road and the role of driving experience was also examined. The results show support for a threshold awareness of task difficulty, risk, effort, and comfort in relation to time headway. Participant's ratings of these variables tended to be low or nil at large time headways, but then around the 2.0 second mark began to noticeably increase. Feelings of task difficulty, risk, and effort were also found to be highly correlated with each other. No effect of driving experience or side of the road was found. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Microwave assisted extraction of iodine and bromine from edible seaweed for inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry determination.

PubMed

Romarís-Hortas, Vanessa; Moreda-Piñeiro, Antonio; Bermejo-Barrera, Pilar

2009-08-15

The feasibility of microwave energy to assist the solubilisation of edible seaweed samples by tetramethylammonium hydroxide (TMAH) has been investigated to extract iodine and bromine. Inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) has been used as a multi-element detector. Variables affecting the microwave assisted extraction/solubilisation (temperature, TMAH volume, ramp time and hold time) were firstly screened by applying a fractional factorial design (2(5-1)+2), resolution V and 2 centre points. When extracting both halogens, results showed statistical significance (confidence interval of 95%) for TMAH volume and temperature, and also for the two order interaction between both variables. Therefore, these two variables were finally optimized by a 2(2)+star orthogonal central composite design with 5 centre points and 2 replicates, and optimum values of 200 degrees C and 10 mL for temperature and TMAH volume, respectively, were found. The extraction time (ramp and hold times) was found statistically non-significant, and values of 10 and 5 min were chosen for the ramp time and the hold time, respectively. This means a fast microwave heating cycle. Repeatability of the over-all procedure has been found to be 6% for both elements, while iodine and bromine concentrations of 24.6 and 19.9 ng g(-1), respectively, were established for the limit of detection. Accuracy of the method was assessed by analyzing the NIES-09 (Sargasso, Sargassum fulvellum) certified reference material (CRM) and the iodine and bromine concentrations found have been in good agreement with the indicative values for this CRM. Finally, the method was applied to several edible dried and canned seaweed samples.

The a(4) Scheme-A High Order Neutrally Stable CESE Solver

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chang, Sin-Chung

2009-01-01

The CESE development is driven by a belief that a solver should (i) enforce conservation laws in both space and time, and (ii) be built from a nondissipative (i.e., neutrally stable) core scheme so that the numerical dissipation can be controlled effectively. To provide a solid foundation for a systematic CESE development of high order schemes, in this paper we describe a new high order (4-5th order) and neutrally stable CESE solver of a 1D advection equation with a constant advection speed a. The space-time stencil of this two-level explicit scheme is formed by one point at the upper time level and two points at the lower time level. Because it is associated with four independent mesh variables (the numerical analogues of the dependent variable and its first, second, and third-order spatial derivatives) and four equations per mesh point, the new scheme is referred to as the a(4) scheme. As in the case of other similar CESE neutrally stable solvers, the a(4) scheme enforces conservation laws in space-time locally and globally, and it has the basic, forward marching, and backward marching forms. Except for a singular case, these forms are equivalent and satisfy a space-time inversion (STI) invariant property which is shared by the advection equation. Based on the concept of STI invariance, a set of algebraic relations is developed and used to prove the a(4) scheme must be neutrally stable when it is stable. Numerically, it has been established that the scheme is stable if the value of the Courant number is less than 1/3

Have the temperature time series a structural change after 1998?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Werner, Rolf; Valev, Dimitare; Danov, Dimitar

2012-07-01

The global and hemisphere temperature GISS and Hadcrut3 time series were analysed for structural changes. We postulate the continuity of the preceding temperature function depending from the time. The slopes are calculated for a sequence of segments limited by time thresholds. We used a standard method, the restricted linear regression with dummy variables. We performed the calculations and tests for different number of thresholds. The thresholds are searched continuously in determined time intervals. The F-statistic is used to obtain the time points of the structural changes.

Evaluation of single-point sampling strategies for the estimation of moclobemide exposure in depressive patients.

PubMed

Ignjatovic, Anita Rakic; Miljkovic, Branislava; Todorovic, Dejan; Timotijevic, Ivana; Pokrajac, Milena

2011-05-01

Because moclobemide pharmacokinetics vary considerably among individuals, monitoring of plasma concentrations lends insight into its pharmacokinetic behavior and enhances its rational use in clinical practice. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether single concentration-time points could adequately predict moclobemide systemic exposure. Pharmacokinetic data (full 7-point pharmacokinetic profiles), obtained from 21 depressive inpatients receiving moclobemide (150 mg 3 times daily), were randomly split into development (n = 18) and validation (n = 16) sets. Correlations between the single concentration-time points and the area under the concentration-time curve within a 6-hour dosing interval at steady-state (AUC(0-6)) were assessed by linear regression analyses. The predictive performance of single-point sampling strategies was evaluated in the validation set by mean prediction error, mean absolute error, and root mean square error. Plasma concentrations in the absorption phase yielded unsatisfactory predictions of moclobemide AUC(0-6). The best estimation of AUC(0-6) was achieved from concentrations at 4 and 6 hours following dosing. As the most reliable surrogate for moclobemide systemic exposure, concentrations at 4 and 6 hours should be used instead of predose trough concentrations as an indicator of between-patient variability and a guide for dose adjustments in specific clinical situations.

A double hit model for the distribution of time to AIDS onset

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chillale, Nagaraja Rao

2013-09-01

Incubation time is a key epidemiologic descriptor of an infectious disease. In the case of HIV infection this is a random variable and is probably the longest one. The probability distribution of incubation time is the major determinant of the relation between the incidences of HIV infection and its manifestation to Aids. This is also one of the key factors used for accurate estimation of AIDS incidence in a region. The present article i) briefly reviews the work done, points out uncertainties in estimation of AIDS onset time and stresses the need for its precise estimation, ii) highlights some of the modelling features of onset distribution including immune failure mechanism, and iii) proposes a 'Double Hit' model for the distribution of time to AIDS onset in the cases of (a) independent and (b) dependent time variables of the two markers and examined the applicability of a few standard probability models.

Looking for Off-Fault Deformation and Measuring Strain Accumulation During the Past 70 years on a Portion of the Locked San Andreas Fault

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vadman, M.; Bemis, S. P.

2017-12-01

Even at high tectonic rates, detection of possible off-fault plastic/aseismic deformation and variability in far-field strain accumulation requires high spatial resolution data and likely decades of measurements. Due to the influence that variability in interseismic deformation could have on the timing, size, and location of future earthquakes and the calculation of modern geodetic estimates of strain, we attempt to use historical aerial photographs to constrain deformation through time across a locked fault. Modern photo-based 3D reconstruction techniques facilitate the creation of dense point clouds from historical aerial photograph collections. We use these tools to generate a time series of high-resolution point clouds that span 10-20 km across the Carrizo Plain segment of the San Andreas fault. We chose this location due to the high tectonic rates along the San Andreas fault and lack of vegetation, which may obscure tectonic signals. We use ground control points collected with differential GPS to establish scale and georeference the aerial photograph-derived point clouds. With a locked fault assumption, point clouds can be co-registered (to one another and/or the 1.7 km wide B4 airborne lidar dataset) along the fault trace to calculate relative displacements away from the fault. We use CloudCompare to compute 3D surface displacements, which reflect the interseismic strain accumulation that occurred in the time interval between photo collections. As expected, we do not observe clear surface displacements along the primary fault trace in our comparisons of the B4 lidar data against the aerial photograph-derived point clouds. However, there may be small scale variations within the lidar swath area that represent near-fault plastic deformation. With large-scale historical photographs available for the Carrizo Plain extending back to at least the 1940s, we can potentially sample nearly half the interseismic period since the last major earthquake on this portion of this fault (1857). Where sufficient aerial photograph coverage is available, this approach has the potential to illuminate complex fault zone processes for this and other major strike-slip faults.

Flexible and scalable methods for quantifying stochastic variability in the era of massive time-domain astronomical data sets

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kelly, Brandon C.; Becker, Andrew C.; Sobolewska, Malgosia

2014-06-10

We present the use of continuous-time autoregressive moving average (CARMA) models as a method for estimating the variability features of a light curve, and in particular its power spectral density (PSD). CARMA models fully account for irregular sampling and measurement errors, making them valuable for quantifying variability, forecasting and interpolating light curves, and variability-based classification. We show that the PSD of a CARMA model can be expressed as a sum of Lorentzian functions, which makes them extremely flexible and able to model a broad range of PSDs. We present the likelihood function for light curves sampled from CARMA processes, placingmore » them on a statistically rigorous foundation, and we present a Bayesian method to infer the probability distribution of the PSD given the measured light curve. Because calculation of the likelihood function scales linearly with the number of data points, CARMA modeling scales to current and future massive time-domain data sets. We conclude by applying our CARMA modeling approach to light curves for an X-ray binary, two active galactic nuclei, a long-period variable star, and an RR Lyrae star in order to illustrate their use, applicability, and interpretation.« less

Variability within Systemic In Vivo Toxicity Studies (ASCCT)

EPA Science Inventory

In vivo studies have long been considered the gold standard for toxicology screening. Often time models developed in silico and/or using in vitro data to estimate points of departures (POD) are compared to the in vivo data to benchmark and evaluate quality and goodness of fit. ...

COSmic-ray soil moisture observing system (COSMOS) in grazing-cap fields at El Reno, Oklahoma

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Soil water content (SWC), especially over large areas, is an important variable needed by hydrological, meteorological, climatological, agricultural, and environmental scientists. Point measurements of SWC are impractical to obtain over extensive areas; thus, methods that provide real-time, hectare...

[Centralization of health services in primary care in summer: Patients and professionals view during two consecutive years].

PubMed

Giménez, N; Martínez, J M; Clanchet, T

2015-01-01

The Spanish primary health care, gateway and pillar of the Health Care System has his resources increasingly constrained by current crisis. To know the opinion of users and professionals on two primary care centers which centralized in August 2011 and 2012 the attendance of seven primary care centers. Two questionnaires were designed: a telephone survey of a random sample of users and a self-completed questionnaire for health care professionals. The variables were scored on a scale of 1-10 (low to high). Cronbach's coefficient α>0,84. 1293 people responded (836 users and 357 professionals). Users rated, in 2011, the satisfaction with 6.7 points in August and 7.3 points the rest of the year (P<.001). And, in 2012, with 7.7 points in August and 8.1 points the rest of the year (P<.001). Health care professionals, rated their satisfaction with 6.8 points in 2011 and 7.3 points in 2012. The waiting time was the only variable best scores in August that the rest of the year. The perception of the solution given in consultation did not change. Satisfaction, marking, care and treatment were highest rated in the regular center than in the reference center (P<.001). The centralization of primary health care during periods of reduced demand could reduce costs while maintaining quality. The experience of centralizing primary care services during August was perceived as acceptable and improved over time. Users showed a slight, but significant, preference for their usual primary care center. Copyright © 2014 Sociedad Española de Médicos de Atención Primaria (SEMERGEN). Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Investigation of JP-8 Autoignition Under Vitiated Combustion Conditions

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-01-01

no less than 1.5 times the dew point temperature of the mixture for all test cases that involved H2O. The flow path and apparatus for the steam...Variable m Interaction Effect of Design Variables m and n R Universal Gas Constant [cal/mol-K] E Activation Energy of Ignition Process [cal/mol] T...combustion including CO2, CO, H2O, and NOX. Vitiated conditions are often the result of flue or exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) into a fresh air stream

Cortical Action Potential Backpropagation Explains Spike Threshold Variability and Rapid-Onset Kinetics

PubMed Central

Yu, Yuguo; Shu, Yousheng; McCormick, David A.

2008-01-01

Neocortical action potential responses in vivo are characterized by considerable threshold variability, and thus timing and rate variability, even under seemingly identical conditions. This finding suggests that cortical ensembles are required for accurate sensorimotor integration and processing. Intracellularly, trial-to-trial variability results not only from variation in synaptic activities, but also in the transformation of these into patterns of action potentials. Through simultaneous axonal and somatic recordings and computational simulations, we demonstrate that the initiation of action potentials in the axon initial segment followed by backpropagation of these spikes throughout the neuron results in a distortion of the relationship between the timing of synaptic and action potential events. In addition, this backpropagation also results in an unusually high rate of rise of membrane potential at the foot of the action potential. The distortion of the relationship between the amplitude time course of synaptic inputs and action potential output caused by spike back-propagation results in the appearance of high spike threshold variability at the level of the soma. At the point of spike initiation, the axon initial segment, threshold variability is considerably less. Our results indicate that spike generation in cortical neurons is largely as expected by Hodgkin—Huxley theory and is more precise than previously thought. PMID:18632930

Simulation and experiment of a fuzzy logic based MPPT controller for a small wind turbine system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petrila, Diana; Muntean, Nicolae

2012-09-01

This paper describes the development of a fuzzy logic based maximum power point tracking (MPPT) strategy for a variable speed wind turbine system (VSWT). For this scope, a fuzzy logic controller (FLC) was described, simulated and tested on a real time "hardware in the loop" wind turbine emulator. Simulation and experimental results show that the controller is able to track the maximum power point for various wind conditions and validate the proposed control strategy.

The influence of biological and technical factors on quantitative analysis of amyloid PET: Points to consider and recommendations for controlling variability in longitudinal data.

PubMed

Schmidt, Mark E; Chiao, Ping; Klein, Gregory; Matthews, Dawn; Thurfjell, Lennart; Cole, Patricia E; Margolin, Richard; Landau, Susan; Foster, Norman L; Mason, N Scott; De Santi, Susan; Suhy, Joyce; Koeppe, Robert A; Jagust, William

2015-09-01

In vivo imaging of amyloid burden with positron emission tomography (PET) provides a means for studying the pathophysiology of Alzheimer's and related diseases. Measurement of subtle changes in amyloid burden requires quantitative analysis of image data. Reliable quantitative analysis of amyloid PET scans acquired at multiple sites and over time requires rigorous standardization of acquisition protocols, subject management, tracer administration, image quality control, and image processing and analysis methods. We review critical points in the acquisition and analysis of amyloid PET, identify ways in which technical factors can contribute to measurement variability, and suggest methods for mitigating these sources of noise. Improved quantitative accuracy could reduce the sample size necessary to detect intervention effects when amyloid PET is used as a treatment end point and allow more reliable interpretation of change in amyloid burden and its relationship to clinical course. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Development of Quadratic Programming Algorithm Based on Interior Point Method with Estimation Mechanism of Active Constraints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hashimoto, Hiroyuki; Takaguchi, Yusuke; Nakamura, Shizuka

Instability of calculation process and increase of calculation time caused by increasing size of continuous optimization problem remain the major issues to be solved to apply the technique to practical industrial systems. This paper proposes an enhanced quadratic programming algorithm based on interior point method mainly for improvement of calculation stability. The proposed method has dynamic estimation mechanism of active constraints on variables, which fixes the variables getting closer to the upper/lower limit on them and afterwards releases the fixed ones as needed during the optimization process. It is considered as algorithm-level integration of the solution strategy of active-set method into the interior point method framework. We describe some numerical results on commonly-used bench-mark problems called “CUTEr” to show the effectiveness of the proposed method. Furthermore, the test results on large-sized ELD problem (Economic Load Dispatching problems in electric power supply scheduling) are also described as a practical industrial application.

Adjusted variable plots for Cox's proportional hazards regression model.

PubMed

Hall, C B; Zeger, S L; Bandeen-Roche, K J

1996-01-01

Adjusted variable plots are useful in linear regression for outlier detection and for qualitative evaluation of the fit of a model. In this paper, we extend adjusted variable plots to Cox's proportional hazards model for possibly censored survival data. We propose three different plots: a risk level adjusted variable (RLAV) plot in which each observation in each risk set appears, a subject level adjusted variable (SLAV) plot in which each subject is represented by one point, and an event level adjusted variable (ELAV) plot in which the entire risk set at each failure event is represented by a single point. The latter two plots are derived from the RLAV by combining multiple points. In each point, the regression coefficient and standard error from a Cox proportional hazards regression is obtained by a simple linear regression through the origin fit to the coordinates of the pictured points. The plots are illustrated with a reanalysis of a dataset of 65 patients with multiple myeloma.

Early maternal language use during book sharing in families from low-income environments.

PubMed

Abraham, Linzy M; Crais, Elizabeth; Vernon-Feagans, Lynne

2013-02-01

The authors examined the language used by mothers from low-income and rural environments with their infants at ages 6 and 15 months to identify predictors of maternal language use at the 15-month time point. Maternal language use by 82 mothers with their children was documented during book-sharing interactions within the home in a prospective longitudinal study. The authors analyzed transcripts for maternal language strategies and maternal language productivity. Analyses indicated variability across mothers in their language use and revealed some stability within mothers, as maternal language use at the 6-month time point significantly predicted later maternal language. Mothers who used more language strategies at the 6-month time point were likely to use more of these language strategies at the 15-month time point, even after accounting for maternal education, family income, maternal language productivity, and children's communicative attempts. Mothers' language use with their children was highly predictive of later maternal language use, as early as age 6 months. Children's communication also influenced concurrent maternal language productivity. Thus, programs to enhance maternal language use would need to begin in infancy, promoting varied and increased maternal language use and also encouraging children's communication.

Comparison and assessment of semi-automatic image segmentation in computed tomography scans for image-guided kidney surgery.

PubMed

Glisson, Courtenay L; Altamar, Hernan O; Herrell, S Duke; Clark, Peter; Galloway, Robert L

2011-11-01

Image segmentation is integral to implementing intraoperative guidance for kidney tumor resection. Results seen in computed tomography (CT) data are affected by target organ physiology as well as by the segmentation algorithm used. This work studies variables involved in using level set methods found in the Insight Toolkit to segment kidneys from CT scans and applies the results to an image guidance setting. A composite algorithm drawing on the strengths of multiple level set approaches was built using the Insight Toolkit. This algorithm requires image contrast state and seed points to be identified as input, and functions independently thereafter, selecting and altering method and variable choice as needed. Semi-automatic results were compared to expert hand segmentation results directly and by the use of the resultant surfaces for registration of intraoperative data. Direct comparison using the Dice metric showed average agreement of 0.93 between semi-automatic and hand segmentation results. Use of the segmented surfaces in closest point registration of intraoperative laser range scan data yielded average closest point distances of approximately 1 mm. Application of both inverse registration transforms from the previous step to all hand segmented image space points revealed that the distance variability introduced by registering to the semi-automatically segmented surface versus the hand segmented surface was typically less than 3 mm both near the tumor target and at distal points, including subsurface points. Use of the algorithm shortened user interaction time and provided results which were comparable to the gold standard of hand segmentation. Further, the use of the algorithm's resultant surfaces in image registration provided comparable transformations to surfaces produced by hand segmentation. These data support the applicability and utility of such an algorithm as part of an image guidance workflow.

Spatial variability of extreme rainfall at radar subpixel scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peleg, Nadav; Marra, Francesco; Fatichi, Simone; Paschalis, Athanasios; Molnar, Peter; Burlando, Paolo

2018-01-01

Extreme rainfall is quantified in engineering practice using Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves (IDF) that are traditionally derived from rain-gauges and more recently also from remote sensing instruments, such as weather radars. These instruments measure rainfall at different spatial scales: rain-gauge samples rainfall at the point scale while weather radar averages precipitation on a relatively large area, generally around 1 km2. As such, a radar derived IDF curve is representative of the mean areal rainfall over a given radar pixel and neglects the within-pixel rainfall variability. In this study, we quantify subpixel variability of extreme rainfall by using a novel space-time rainfall generator (STREAP model) that downscales in space the rainfall within a given radar pixel. The study was conducted using a unique radar data record (23 years) and a very dense rain-gauge network in the Eastern Mediterranean area (northern Israel). Radar-IDF curves, together with an ensemble of point-based IDF curves representing the radar subpixel extreme rainfall variability, were developed fitting Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distributions to annual rainfall maxima. It was found that the mean areal extreme rainfall derived from the radar underestimate most of the extreme values computed for point locations within the radar pixel (on average, ∼70%). The subpixel variability of rainfall extreme was found to increase with longer return periods and shorter durations (e.g. from a maximum variability of 10% for a return period of 2 years and a duration of 4 h to 30% for 50 years return period and 20 min duration). For the longer return periods, a considerable enhancement of extreme rainfall variability was found when stochastic (natural) climate variability was taken into account. Bounding the range of the subpixel extreme rainfall derived from radar-IDF can be of major importance for different applications that require very local estimates of rainfall extremes.

The role of urgency in maladaptive behaviors.

PubMed

Anestis, Michael D; Selby, Edward A; Joiner, Thomas E

2007-12-01

Prior work on maladaptive behaviors has cited impulsivity as a risk factor. The concept of impulsivity, however, fails to address the potential role of negative affect in such behaviors. The UPPS Impulsive Behavior Scale addresses this weakness by dividing impulsivity into four subscales: Urgency, Sensation Seeking, (lack of) Premeditation, and (lack of) Perseverance. We predicted that urgency, defined as the tendency, specifically in the face of negative affect, to act quickly and without planning, would predict elevations on three maladaptive behaviors--excessive reassurance seeking, drinking to cope, and bulimic symptoms as measured by the Eating Disorder Inventory--in both cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses in an undergraduate sample (N=70). Participants were assessed at two time points, 3-4 weeks apart. Urgency significantly predicted all three outcome variables cross-sectionally at both Time 1 and Time 2. Time 1 urgency significantly predicted Time 2 excessive reassurance seeking. Changes in urgency from Time 1 to Time 2 predicted changes in all three outcome variables. Results indicate a clear cross-sectional relationship between urgency and certain maladaptive behaviors. Additionally, some form of longitudinal relationship may exist between these variables, although the use of residual change scores precluded distinction between true change and change due to error.

Experimental investigation of stress-inducing properties of system response times.

PubMed

Kuhmann, W

1989-03-01

System response times are regarded as a major stressor in human-computer interaction. In two earlier studies short (2s) and long (8s) response times were found to have differential effects on psychological, subjective, and performance variables, but results did not favour either response time. Therefore, in another laboratory study with 48 subjects in four independent groups working at a stimulated computer workplace, system response times of 2, 4, 6 and 8s were introduced in the same error detection task as used before, during 3 training and 5 working trials of 20 min each, and the same physiological, subjective and performance measures were obtained. There were no global effects on physiological variables, possibly due to low work load as a result of missing time pressure, but subjective and performance variables clearly favoured the longer system response times. When task periods and response time-periods were analysed separately, a shift of electrodermal activity could be observed from task- to response time-periods during the course of trials in the 8s condition. This did not appear in any other condition, which points to psychophysiological excitement that develops when system response times are too long, thus providing support for the concept of optimal system response times.

Norepinephrine genes predict response time variability and methylphenidate-induced changes in neuropsychological function in attention deficit hyperactivity disorder.

PubMed

Kim, Bung-Nyun; Kim, Jae-Won; Cummins, Tarrant D R; Bellgrove, Mark A; Hawi, Ziarih; Hong, Soon-Beom; Yang, Young-Hui; Kim, Hyo-Jin; Shin, Min-Sup; Cho, Soo-Churl; Kim, Ji-Hoon; Son, Jung-Woo; Shin, Yun-Mi; Chung, Un-Sun; Han, Doug-Hyun

2013-06-01

Noradrenergic dysfunction may be associated with cognitive impairments in attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), including increased response time variability, which has been proposed as a leading endophenotype for ADHD. The aim of this study was to examine the relationship between polymorphisms in the α-2A-adrenergic receptor (ADRA2A) and norepinephrine transporter (SLC6A2) genes and attentional performance in ADHD children before and after pharmacological treatment.One hundred one medication-naive ADHD children were included. All subjects were administered methylphenidate (MPH)-OROS for 12 weeks. The subjects underwent a computerized comprehensive attention test to measure the response time variability at baseline before MPH treatment and after 12 weeks. Additive regression analyses controlling for ADHD symptom severity, age, sex, IQ, and final dose of MPH examined the association between response time variability on the comprehensive attention test measures and allelic variations in single-nucleotide polymorphisms of the ADRA2A and SLC6A2 before and after MPH treatment.Increasing possession of an A allele at the G1287A polymorphism of SLC6A2 was significantly related to heightened response time variability at baseline in the sustained (P = 2.0 × 10) and auditory selective attention (P = 1.0 × 10) tasks. Response time variability at baseline increased additively with possession of the T allele at the DraI polymorphism of the ADRA2A gene in the auditory selective attention task (P = 2.0 × 10). After medication, increasing possession of a G allele at the MspI polymorphism of the ADRA2A gene was associated with increased MPH-related change in response time variability in the flanker task (P = 1.0 × 10).Our study suggested an association between norepinephrine gene variants and response time variability measured at baseline and after MPH treatment in children with ADHD. Our results add to a growing body of evidence, suggesting that response time variability is a viable endophenotype for ADHD and suggesting its utility as a surrogate end point for measuring stimulant response in pharmacogenetic studies.

A Bayesian Approach for Analyzing Longitudinal Structural Equation Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Song, Xin-Yuan; Lu, Zhao-Hua; Hser, Yih-Ing; Lee, Sik-Yum

2011-01-01

This article considers a Bayesian approach for analyzing a longitudinal 2-level nonlinear structural equation model with covariates, and mixed continuous and ordered categorical variables. The first-level model is formulated for measures taken at each time point nested within individuals for investigating their characteristics that are dynamically…

Stability and Hopf Bifurcation for Two Advertising Systems, Coupled with Delay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sterpu, Mihaela; Rocşoreanu, Carmen

2007-09-01

Two advertising systems were linearly coupled via the first variable, with time delay. The stability and the Hopf bifurcation corresponding to the symmetric equilibrium point (the origin) in the 4D system are analyzed. Different types of oscillations corresponding to the limit cycles are compared.

Teachers' Perceptions of Teaching Mathematics at the Senior Secondary Level in Fiji

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dayal, Hem Chand

2013-01-01

In recent times, there has been considerable interest shown in the affective domain of mathematics education with research findings pointing out that affective variables have profound impact on classroom practices of mathematics teachers. In other words, teachers' conceptions of mathematics and mathematics teaching are greatly influenced by…

Early Handedness in Infancy Predicts Language Ability in Toddlers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nelson, Eliza L.; Campbell, Julie M.; Michel, George F.

2014-01-01

Researchers have long been interested in the relationship between handedness and language in development. However, traditional handedness studies using single age groups, small samples, or too few measurement time points have not capitalized on individual variability and may have masked 2 recently identified patterns in infants: those with a…

Field scale spatiotemporal analysis of surface soil moisture for evaluating point-scale in situ networks

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Soil moisture is an intrinsic state variable that varies considerably in space and time. From a hydrologic viewpoint, soil moisture controls runoff, infiltration, storage and drainage. Soil moisture determines the partitioning of the incoming radiation between latent and sensible heat fluxes. Althou...

Relation between Video Game Addiction and Interfamily Relationships on Primary School Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zorbaz, Selen Demirtas; Ulas, Ozlem; Kizildag, Seval

2015-01-01

This study seeks to analyze whether or not the following three variables of "Discouraging Family Relations," "Supportive Family Relations," "Total Time Spent on the Computer," and "Grade Point Average (GPA)" predict elementary school students' video game addiction rates, and whether or not there exists a…

Work History of Schizophrenics and Alcoholics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gregory, Caesar C.; Downie, N. M.

1970-01-01

Data were obtained from 308 alcoholic and 297 schizophrenics on the following variables: age, hospitalizations, funds, education, number and quality of jobs, time longest job held, placement related to past work, and marital status. Results pointed to new insights into the working behavior and social adjustment of the two groups. (Author)

Student Success Factors in Graduate Psychology Professional Programs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Newhouse, Noelle K.; Cerniak, Jessica

2016-01-01

Research examining factors contributing to online students' success typically focuses on a single point in time or completion of a single course, as well as individual difference variables, such as learning style or motivation, that may predispose a student to succeed. However, research concerning longer term online student outcomes, such as…

Comparison of Support Vector Machine, Neural Network, and CART Algorithms for the Land-Cover Classification Using Limited Training Data Points

EPA Science Inventory

Support vector machine (SVM) was applied for land-cover characterization using MODIS time-series data. Classification performance was examined with respect to training sample size, sample variability, and landscape homogeneity (purity). The results were compared to two convention...

Longitudinal Adult Practical Problem-Solving: 1983, 1993, 2003

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Haught, Patricia A.; Walls, Richard T.

2007-01-01

A 20-year longitudinal study was conducted to examine adult performance on practical problems. Effects of independent variables of age, education, and administration time were assessed on solutions generated and quality points earned. Younger adults generated more solutions than other adults in 1983, 1993, and 2003. Both younger and middle adults…

Cosmic infinity: a dynamical system approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bouhmadi-López, Mariam; Marto, João; Morais, João

2017-03-01

Dynamical system techniques are extremely useful to study cosmology. It turns out that in most of the cases, we deal with finite isolated fixed points corresponding to a given cosmological epoch. However, it is equally important to analyse the asymptotic behaviour of the universe. On this paper, we show how this can be carried out for 3-form models. In fact, we show that there are fixed points at infinity mainly by introducing appropriate compactifications and defining a new time variable that washes away any potential divergence of the system. The richness of 3-form models allows us as well to identifymore » normally hyperbolic non-isolated fixed points. We apply this analysis to three physically interesting situations: (i) a pre-inflationary era; (ii) an inflationary era; (iii) the late-time dark matter/dark energy epoch.« less

Atmospheric Teleconnection and Climate Variability: Affecting Rice Productivity of Bihar, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saini, A.

2017-12-01

Climate variability brought various negative results to the environment around us and area under rice crop in Bihar has also faced a lot of negative impacts due to variability in temperature and rainfall. Location of Bihar in Northern Plain of India automatically makes it prime location for agriculture and therefore variability in climatic variables brings highly sensitive results to the agricultural production (especially rice). In this study, rainfall and temperature variables are taken into consideration to investigate the impact on rice cultivated area. Change in climate variable with the passage of time is prevailing since the start of geological time scale, how the variability in climate variables has affected the major crops. Climate index of Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean influences the seasonal weather in Bihar and therefore role of ENSO and IOD is an interesting point of inquiry. Does there exists direct relation between climate variability and area under agricultural crops? How many important variables directly signals towards the change in area under agriculture production? These entire questions are answered with respect to change in area under rice cultivation of Bihar State of India. Temperature, rainfall and ENSO are a good indicator with respect to rice cultivation in Indian subcontinent. Impact on the area under rice has been signaled through ONI, Niño3 and DMI. Increasing range of temperature in the rice productivity declining years is observed since 1990.

Current Research In The Institut D'optique - Orsay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marechal, A.

1985-01-01

I - FUNDAMENTAL PROBLEMS A. ASPECT : Non locality in wave mechanics. The Einstein-Bohr dispute and the optical test of Bell's inequalities. A. Einstein and N. Bohr had a discussion about the role of probabilities in microphysics; as is well known the location and momentum of particles cannot be known precisely but only through probabilistic expressions. Einstein thought that complementary variables (hidden variables) are unknown at the present time and that the knowledge of those variables would suppress the actual uncertainty "God does not play random games". On the contrary, Bohr advocated the fundamental role of probabilities. During the sixties J. Bell established inequalities supporting the Einstein point of view. These inequalities are in contradiction with the predictions of quantum mechanics in some very rare situations. A.Aspect designed and realised an optical experiment where the correlation of polarisation of photons emitted by a single atom was measured with a very good signal to noise ratio. Moreover the orientation of the polarisation analyser was changed during the time of flight of photons. The experimental result is in full agreement with the point of view of N. Bohr : the uncertainty on the movement of particles is a fundamental component of the laws of nature and Bell's inequalities do not hold.

Accelerating simulation for the multiple-point statistics algorithm using vector quantization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zuo, Chen; Pan, Zhibin; Liang, Hao

2018-03-01

Multiple-point statistics (MPS) is a prominent algorithm to simulate categorical variables based on a sequential simulation procedure. Assuming training images (TIs) as prior conceptual models, MPS extracts patterns from TIs using a template and records their occurrences in a database. However, complex patterns increase the size of the database and require considerable time to retrieve the desired elements. In order to speed up simulation and improve simulation quality over state-of-the-art MPS methods, we propose an accelerating simulation for MPS using vector quantization (VQ), called VQ-MPS. First, a variable representation is presented to make categorical variables applicable for vector quantization. Second, we adopt a tree-structured VQ to compress the database so that stationary simulations are realized. Finally, a transformed template and classified VQ are used to address nonstationarity. A two-dimensional (2D) stationary channelized reservoir image is used to validate the proposed VQ-MPS. In comparison with several existing MPS programs, our method exhibits significantly better performance in terms of computational time, pattern reproductions, and spatial uncertainty. Further demonstrations consist of a 2D four facies simulation, two 2D nonstationary channel simulations, and a three-dimensional (3D) rock simulation. The results reveal that our proposed method is also capable of solving multifacies, nonstationarity, and 3D simulations based on 2D TIs.

State-of-the-Art Sensor Technology in Spain: Invasive and Non-Invasive Techniques for Monitoring Respiratory Variables

PubMed Central

Domingo, Christian; Blanch, Lluis; Murias, Gaston; Luján, Manel

2010-01-01

The interest in measuring physiological parameters (especially arterial blood gases) has grown progressively in parallel to the development of new technologies. Physiological parameters were first measured invasively and at discrete time points; however, it was clearly desirable to measure them continuously and non-invasively. The development of intensive care units promoted the use of ventilators via oral intubation ventilators via oral intubation and mechanical respiratory variables were progressively studied. Later, the knowledge gained in the hospital was applied to out-of-hospital management. In the present paper we review the invasive and non-invasive techniques for monitoring respiratory variables. PMID:22399898

State-of-the-art sensor technology in Spain: invasive and non-invasive techniques for monitoring respiratory variables.

PubMed

Domingo, Christian; Blanch, Lluis; Murias, Gaston; Luján, Manel

2010-01-01

The interest in measuring physiological parameters (especially arterial blood gases) has grown progressively in parallel to the development of new technologies. Physiological parameters were first measured invasively and at discrete time points; however, it was clearly desirable to measure them continuously and non-invasively. The development of intensive care units promoted the use of ventilators via oral intubation ventilators via oral intubation and mechanical respiratory variables were progressively studied. Later, the knowledge gained in the hospital was applied to out-of-hospital management. In the present paper we review the invasive and non-invasive techniques for monitoring respiratory variables.

Determining the Ocean's Role on the Variable Gravity Field on Earth Rotation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ponte, Rui M.

1999-01-01

A number of ocean models of different complexity have been used to study changes in the oceanic mass field and angular momentum and their relation to the variable Earth rotation and gravity field. Time scales examined range from seasonal to a few days. Results point to the importance of oceanic signals in driving polar motion, in particular the Chandler and annual wobbles. Results also show that oceanic signals have a measurable impact on length-of-day variations. Various circulation features and associated mass signals, including the North Pacific subtropical gyre, the equatorial currents, and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current play a significant role in oceanic angular momentum variability.

Space Technology 5 (ST-5) Observations of Field-Aligned Currents: Temporal Variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Le, Guan

2010-01-01

Space Technology 5 (ST-5) is a three micro-satellite constellation deployed into a 300 x 4500 km, dawn-dusk, sun-synchronous polar orbit from March 22 to June 21, 2006, for technology validations. In this paper, we present a study of the temporal variability of field-aligned currents using multi-point magnetic field measurements from STS. The data demonstrate that masoscale current structures are commonly embedded within large-scale field-aligned current sheets. The meso-scale current structures are very dynamic with highly variable current density and/or polarity in time scales of about 10 min. They exhibit large temporal variations during both quiet and disturbed times in such time scales. On the other hand, the data also shown that the time scales for the currents to be relatively stable are about I min for meso-scale currents and about 10 min for large scale current sheets. These temporal features are obviously associated with dynamic variations of their particle carriers (mainly electrons) as they respond to the variations of the parallel electric field in auroral acceleration region. The characteristic time scales for the temporal variability of meso-scale field-aligned currents are found to be consistent with those of auroral parallel electric field.

Space Technology 5 (ST-5) Multipoint Observations of Temporal and Spatial Variability of Field-Aligned Currents

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Le, Guan

2010-01-01

Space Technology 5 (ST-5) is a three micro-satellite constellation deployed into a 300 x 4500 km, dawn-dusk, sun-synchronous polar orbit from March 22 to June 21, 2006, for technology validations. In this paper, we present a study of the temporal variability of field-aligned currents using multi-point magnetic field measurements from ST5. The data demonstrate that mesoscale current structures are commonly embedded within large-scale field-aligned current sheets. The meso-scale current structures are very dynamic with highly variable current density and/or polarity in time scales of about 10 min. They exhibit large temporal variations during both quiet and disturbed times in such time scales. On the other hand, the data also shown that the time scales for the currents to be relatively stable are about 1 min for meso-scale currents and about 10 min for large scale current sheets. These temporal features are obviously associated with dynamic variations of their particle carriers (mainly electrons) as they respond to the variations of the parallel electric field in auroral acceleration region. The characteristic time scales for the temporal variability of meso-scale field-aligned currents are found to be consistent with those of auroral parallel electric field.

Reliability of fitness tests using methods and time periods common in sport and occupational management.

PubMed

Burnstein, Bryan D; Steele, Russell J; Shrier, Ian

2011-01-01

Fitness testing is used frequently in many areas of physical activity, but the reliability of these measurements under real-world, practical conditions is unknown. To evaluate the reliability of specific fitness tests using the methods and time periods used in the context of real-world sport and occupational management. Cohort study. Eighteen different Cirque du Soleil shows. Cirque du Soleil physical performers who completed 4 consecutive tests (6-month intervals) and were free of injury or illness at each session (n = 238 of 701 physical performers). Performers completed 6 fitness tests on each assessment date: dynamic balance, Harvard step test, handgrip, vertical jump, pull-ups, and 60-second jump test. We calculated the intraclass coefficient (ICC) and limits of agreement between baseline and each time point and the ICC over all 4 time points combined. Reliability was acceptable (ICC > 0.6) over an 18-month time period for all pairwise comparisons and all time points together for the handgrip, vertical jump, and pull-up assessments. The Harvard step test and 60-second jump test had poor reliability (ICC < 0.6) between baseline and other time points. When we excluded the baseline data and calculated the ICC for 6-month, 12-month, and 18-month time points, both the Harvard step test and 60-second jump test demonstrated acceptable reliability. Dynamic balance was unreliable in all contexts. Limit-of-agreement analysis demonstrated considerable intraindividual variability for some tests and a learning effect by administrators on others. Five of the 6 tests in this battery had acceptable reliability over an 18-month time frame, but the values for certain individuals may vary considerably from time to time for some tests. Specific tests may require a learning period for administrators.

Least-rattling feedback from strong time-scale separation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chvykov, Pavel; England, Jeremy

2018-03-01

In most interacting many-body systems associated with some "emergent phenomena," we can identify subgroups of degrees of freedom that relax on dramatically different time scales. Time-scale separation of this kind is particularly helpful in nonequilibrium systems where only the fast variables are subjected to external driving; in such a case, it may be shown through elimination of fast variables that the slow coordinates effectively experience a thermal bath of spatially varying temperature. In this paper, we investigate how such a temperature landscape arises according to how the slow variables affect the character of the driven quasisteady state reached by the fast variables. Brownian motion in the presence of spatial temperature gradients is known to lead to the accumulation of probability density in low-temperature regions. Here, we focus on the implications of attraction to low effective temperature for the long-term evolution of slow variables. After quantitatively deriving the temperature landscape for a general class of overdamped systems using a path-integral technique, we then illustrate in a simple dynamical system how the attraction to low effective temperature has a fine-tuning effect on the slow variable, selecting configurations that bring about exceptionally low force fluctuation in the fast-variable steady state. We furthermore demonstrate that a particularly strong effect of this kind can take place when the slow variable is tuned to bring about orderly, integrable motion in the fast dynamics that avoids thermalizing energy absorbed from the drive. We thus point to a potentially general feedback mechanism in multi-time-scale active systems, that leads to the exploration of slow variable space, as if in search of fine tuning for a "least-rattling" response in the fast coordinates.

When Learning Disturbs Memory – Temporal Profile of Retroactive Interference of Learning on Memory Formation

PubMed Central

Sosic-Vasic, Zrinka; Hille, Katrin; Kröner, Julia; Spitzer, Manfred; Kornmeier, Jürgen

2018-01-01

Introduction: Consolidation is defined as the time necessary for memory stabilization after learning. In the present study we focused on effects of interference during the first 12 consolidation minutes after learning. Participants had to learn a set of German – Japanese word pairs in an initial learning task and a different set of German – Japanese word pairs in a subsequent interference task. The interference task started in different experimental conditions at different time points (0, 3, 6, and 9 min) after the learning task and was followed by subsequent cued recall tests. In a control experiment the interference periods were replaced by rest periods without any interference. Results: The interference task decreased memory performance by up to 20%, with negative effects at all interference time points and large variability between participants concerning both the time point and the size of maximal interference. Further, fast learners seem to be more affected by interference than slow learners. Discussion: Our results indicate that the first 12 min after learning are highly important for memory consolidation, without a general pattern concerning the precise time point of maximal interference across individuals. This finding raises doubts about the generalized learning recipes and calls for individuality of learning schedules. PMID:29503621

Simulating Ice Shelf Response to Potential Triggers of Collapse Using the Material Point Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huth, A.; Smith, B. E.

2017-12-01

Weakening or collapse of an ice shelf can reduce the buttressing effect of the shelf on its upstream tributaries, resulting in sea level rise as the flux of grounded ice into the ocean increases. Here we aim to improve sea level rise projections by developing a prognostic 2D plan-view model that simulates the response of an ice sheet/ice shelf system to potential triggers of ice shelf weakening or collapse, such as calving events, thinning, and meltwater ponding. We present initial results for Larsen C. Changes in local ice shelf stresses can affect flow throughout the entire domain, so we place emphasis on calibrating our model to high-resolution data and precisely evolving fracture-weakening and ice geometry throughout the simulations. We primarily derive our initial ice geometry from CryoSat-2 data, and initialize the model by conducting a dual inversion for the ice viscosity parameter and basal friction coefficient that minimizes mismatch between modeled velocities and velocities derived from Landsat data. During simulations, we implement damage mechanics to represent fracture-weakening, and track ice thickness evolution, grounding line position, and ice front position. Since these processes are poorly represented by the Finite Element Method (FEM) due to mesh resolution issues and numerical diffusion, we instead implement the Material Point Method (MPM) for our simulations. In MPM, the ice domain is discretized into a finite set of Lagrangian material points that carry all variables and are tracked throughout the simulation. Each time step, information from the material points is projected to a Eulerian grid where the momentum balance equation (shallow shelf approximation) is solved similarly to FEM, but essentially treating the material points as integration points. The grid solution is then used to determine the new positions of the material points and update variables such as thickness and damage in a diffusion-free Lagrangian frame. The grid does not store any variables permanently, and can be replaced at any time step. MPM naturally tracks the ice front and grounding line at a subgrid scale. MPM also facilitates the implementation of rift propagation in arbitrary directions, and therefore shows promise for predicting calving events. To our knowledge, this is the first application of MPM to ice flow modeling.

Variability of Physical Activity Patterns by Type of Day and Season in 8-10-Year-Old Boys

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rowlands, Ann V.; Hughes, Dylan R.

2006-01-01

The aims of this study were to: (a) compare physical activity across two seasons and, within those seasons, across school and vacation time, and (b) compare the proportion of children meeting the activity thresholds recommended by Tudor-Locke et al. (2004) at each time point. Thirty-six boys, between the ages of 8 and 10 years (M age = 8.8 years,…

Within-patient temporal variance in MELD score and impact on survival prediction after TIPS creation.

PubMed

Gaba, Ron C; Shah, Kruti D; Couture, Patrick M; Parvinian, Ahmad; Minocha, Jeet; Knuttinen, M Grace; Bui, James T

2013-01-01

To assess within-patient temporal variability in Model for End Stage Liver Disease (MELD) scores and impact on outcome prognostication after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) creation. In this single institution retrospective study, MELD score was calculated in 68 patients (M:F = 42:26, mean age 55 years) at 4 pre-procedure time points (1, 2-6, 7-14, and 15-35 days) before TIPS creation. Medical record review was used to identify 30- and 90-day clinical outcomes. Within-patient variability in pre-procedure MELD scores was assessed using repeated measures analysis of variance, and the ability of MELD scores at different time points to predict post-TIPS mortality was evaluated by comparing area under receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curves. TIPS were successfully created for ascites (n = 30), variceal hemorrhage (n = 29), hepatic hydrothorax (n = 8), and portal vein thrombosis (n = 1). Pre-TIPS MELD scores showed significant (P = 0.032) within-subject variance that approached ± 18.5%. Higher MELD scores demonstrated greater variability in sequential scores as compared to lower MELD scores. Overall 30- and 90-day patient mortality was 22% (15/67) and 38% (24/64). AUROC curves showed that most recent MELD scores performed on the day of TIPS had superior predictive capacity for 30- (0.876, P = 0.037) and 90-day (0.805 P = 0.020) mortality compared to MELD scores performed 2-6 or 7-14 days prior. In conclusion, MELD scores show within-patient variability over time, and scores calculated on the day of TIPS most accurately predict risk and should be used for patient selection and counseling.

A simple tool to predict admission at the time of triage.

PubMed

Cameron, Allan; Rodgers, Kenneth; Ireland, Alastair; Jamdar, Ravi; McKay, Gerard A

2015-03-01

To create and validate a simple clinical score to estimate the probability of admission at the time of triage. This was a multicentre, retrospective, cross-sectional study of triage records for all unscheduled adult attendances in North Glasgow over 2 years. Clinical variables that had significant associations with admission on logistic regression were entered into a mixed-effects multiple logistic model. This provided weightings for the score, which was then simplified and tested on a separate validation group by receiving operator characteristic (ROC) analysis and goodness-of-fit tests. 215 231 presentations were used for model derivation and 107 615 for validation. Variables in the final model showing clinically and statistically significant associations with admission were: triage category, age, National Early Warning Score (NEWS), arrival by ambulance, referral source and admission within the last year. The resulting 6-variable score showed excellent admission/discharge discrimination (area under ROC curve 0.8774, 95% CI 0.8752 to 0.8796). Higher scores also predicted early returns for those who were discharged: the odds of subsequent admission within 28 days doubled for every 7-point increase (log odds=+0.0933 per point, p<0.0001). This simple, 6-variable score accurately estimates the probability of admission purely from triage information. Most patients could accurately be assigned to 'admission likely', 'admission unlikely', 'admission very unlikely' etc., by setting appropriate cut-offs. This could have uses in patient streaming, bed management and decision support. It also has the potential to control for demographics when comparing performance over time or between departments. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Variability in heart rate recovery measurements over 1 year in healthy, middle-aged adults.

PubMed

Mellis, M G; Ingle, L; Carroll, S

2014-02-01

This study assessed the longer-term (12-month) variability in post-exercise heart rate recovery following a submaximal exercise test. Longitudinal data was analysed for 97 healthy middle-aged adults (74 male, 23 female) from 2 occasions, 12 months apart. Participants were retrospectively selected if they had stable physical activity habits, submaximal treadmill fitness and anthropometric measurements between the 2 assessment visits. A submaximal Bruce treadmill test was performed to at least 85% age-predicted maximum heart rate. Absolute heart rate and Δ heart rate recovery (change from peak exercise heart rate) were recorded for 1 and 2 min post-exercise in an immediate supine position. Heart rate recovery at both time-points was shown to be reliable with intra-class correlation coefficient values ≥ 0.714. Absolute heart rate 1-min post-exercise showed the strongest agreement between repeat tests (r = 0.867, P < 0.001). Lower coefficient of variation (≤ 10.2%) and narrower limits of agreement were found for actual heart rate values rather than Δ heart rate recovery, and for 1-min rather than 2-min post-exercise recovery time points. Log-transformed values generated better variability with acceptable coefficient of variation for all measures (2.2-10%). Overall, 1 min post-exercise heart rate recovery data had least variability over the 12-month period in apparently healthy middle-aged adults. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Positive psychology in rehabilitation medicine: a brief report.

PubMed

Bertisch, Hilary; Rath, Joseph; Long, Coralynn; Ashman, Teresa; Rashid, Tayyab

2014-01-01

The field of positive psychology has grown exponentially within the last decade. To date, however, there have been few empirical initiatives to clarify the constructs within positive psychology as they relate to rehabilitation medicine. Character strengths, and in particular resilience, following neurological trauma are clinically observable within rehabilitation settings, and greater knowledge of the way in which these factors relate to treatment variables may allow for enhanced treatment conceptualization and planning. The goal of this study was to explore the relationships between positive psychology constructs (character strengths, resilience, and positive mood) and rehabilitation-related variables (perceptions of functional ability post-injury and beliefs about treatment) within a baseline data set, a six-month follow-up data set, and longitudinally across time points. Pearson correlations and supplementary multiple regression analyses were conducted within and across these time points from a starting sample of thirty-nine individuals with acquired brain injury (ABI) in an outpatient rehabilitation program. Positive psychology constructs were related to rehabilitation-related variables within the baseline data set, within the follow-up data set, and longitudinally between baseline positive psychology variables and follow-up rehabilitation-related data. These preliminary findings support relationships between character strengths, resilience, and positive mood states with perceptions of functional ability and expectations of treatment, respectively, which are primary factors in treatment success and quality of life outcomes in rehabilitation medicine settings. The results suggest the need for more research in this area, with an ultimate goal of incorporating positive psychology constructs into rehabilitation conceptualization and treatment planning.

Physiological and biochemical variables in captive tigers (Panthera tigris) immobilised with dexmedetomidine and ketamine or dexmedetomidine, midazolam and ketamine.

PubMed

Clark-Price, S C; Lascola, K M; Schaeffer, D J

2015-12-05

Physiological and biochemical variables in captive tigers (Panthera tigris) immobilised with dexmedetomidine and ketamine or dexmedetomidine, midazolam and ketamine were evaluated. Thirty tigers received either dexmedetomidine (0.025 mg/kg) and ketamine (3 mg/kg) (group DK) or dexmedetomidine (0.0125 mg/kg), midazolam (0.1 mg/kg) and ketamine (3 mg/kg) (group DMK). Heart rate, SPO2 and blood pressure were measured at five-minute intervals. Arterial pH, PO2, PCO2, glucose, K+ and arterial and venous lactate were measured at 15 and 45 minutes after immobilisation. A generalised linear mixed model was used for statistical comparison. There was no difference within or between groups at any time point for any measured variable. Measured PO2 was 73.2±17.5 mm Hg and SPO2 was 88.9±10.8 per cent. Systolic, mean and diastolic blood pressures were 170.5±48.4, 138.9±41.8 and 121.8±37.2 mm Hg, respectively. Venous lactate was higher than arterial lactate within groups at each time point. Seizure-like behaviour was observed in 25 per cent of tigers in group DK but not in group DMK. The addition of midazolam into a protocol for immobilisation of tigers did not result in a difference in any of the measured variables but may have prevented the development of seizure-like behaviour. British Veterinary Association.

Monitoring small pioneer trees in the forest-tundra ecotone: using multi-temporal airborne laser scanning data to model height growth.

PubMed

Hauglin, Marius; Bollandsås, Ole Martin; Gobakken, Terje; Næsset, Erik

2017-12-08

Monitoring of forest resources through national forest inventory programmes is carried out in many countries. The expected climate changes will affect trees and forests and might cause an expansion of trees into presently treeless areas, such as above the current alpine tree line. It is therefore a need to develop methods that enable the inclusion of also these areas into monitoring programmes. Airborne laser scanning (ALS) is an established tool in operational forest inventories, and could be a viable option for monitoring tasks. In the present study, we used multi-temporal ALS data with point density of 8-15 points per m 2 , together with field measurements from single trees in the forest-tundra ecotone along a 1500-km-long transect in Norway. The material comprised 262 small trees with an average height of 1.78 m. The field-measured height growth was derived from height measurements at two points in time. The elapsed time between the two measurements was 4 years. Regression models were then used to model the relationship between ALS-derived variables and tree heights as well as the height growth. Strong relationships between ALS-derived variables and tree heights were found, with R 2 values of 0.93 and 0.97 for the two points in time. The relationship between the ALS data and the field-derived height growth was weaker, with R 2 values of 0.36-0.42. A cross-validation gave corresponding results, with root mean square errors of 19 and 11% for the ALS height models and 60% for the model relating ALS data to single-tree height growth.

Family, peer, and neighborhood influences on academic achievement among African-American adolescents: one-year prospective effects.

PubMed

Gonzales, N A; Cauce, A M; Friedman, R J; Mason, C A

1996-06-01

Using a 1-year prospective design, this study examined the influence of family status variables (family income, parental education, family structure), parenting variables (maternal support and restrictive control), peer support, and neighborhood risk on the school performance of 120 African American junior high school students. In addition to main effects of these variables, neighborhood risk was examined as a moderator of the effects of parenting and peer support. Family status variables were not predictive of adolescent school performance as indexed by self-reported grade point average. Maternal support at Time 1 was prospectively related to adolescent grades at Time 2. Neighborhood risk was related to lower grades, while peer support predicted better grades in the prospective analyses. Neighborhood risk also moderated the effects of maternal restrictive control and peer support on adolescent grades in prospective analyses. These findings highlight the importance of an ecological approach to the problem of academic underachievement within the African American Community.

Online prediction of organileptic data for snack food using color images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Honglu; MacGregor, John F.

2004-11-01

In this paper, a study for the prediction of organileptic properties of snack food in real-time using RGB color images is presented. The so-called organileptic properties, which are properties based on texture, taste and sight, are generally measured either by human sensory response or by mechanical devices. Neither of these two methods can be used for on-line feedback control in high-speed production. In this situation, a vision-based soft sensor is very attractive. By taking images of the products, the samples remain untouched and the product properties can be predicted in real time from image data. Four types of organileptic properties are considered in this study: blister level, toast points, taste and peak break force. Wavelet transform are applied on the color images and the averaged absolute value for each filtered image is used as texture feature variable. In order to handle the high correlation among the feature variables, Partial Least Squares (PLS) is used to regress the extracted feature variables against the four response variables.

Navier-Stokes solution on the CYBER-203 by a pseudospectral technique

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lambiotte, J. J.; Hussaini, M. Y.; Bokhari, S.; Orszag, S. A.

1983-01-01

A three-level, time-split, mixed spectral/finite difference method for the numerical solution of the three-dimensional, compressible Navier-Stokes equations has been developed and implemented on the Control Data Corporation (CDC) CYBER-203. This method uses a spectral representation for the flow variables in the streamwise and spanwise coordinates, and central differences in the normal direction. The five dependent variables are interleaved one horizontal plane at a time and the array of their values at the grid points of each horizontal plane is a typical vector in the computation. The code is organized so as to require, per time step, a single forward-backward pass through the entire data base. The one-and two-dimensional Fast Fourier Transforms are performed using software especially developed for the CYBER-203.

The role of natural disaster in individual and relational adjustment in Sri Lankan mothers following the 2004 tsunami.

PubMed

Banford, Alyssa; Ivey, David C; Wickrama, Thulitha; Fischer, Judith; Prouty, Anne; Smith, Douglas

2016-01-01

The purpose of this study is to examine the associations between maternal mental health distress symptoms, including depression and post-traumatic stress disorder, the extent to which the presence of a child's disaster-related physical health problem(s) have interfered with daily functioning, and family cohesion over time among Sri Lankan mothers who survived the tsunami on 26 December 2004. Study variables were measured using a self-report questionnaire administered approximately four months after the event and three years later in summer 2008. Univariate, bivariate, and multivariate analyses were conducted. Path analysis was employed to assess the relationships between the key variables over time and the correlations in the study variables at each time point. Among other findings, the results of the path analysis indicated that post-traumatic stress symptom distress four months after the disaster significantly predicted variance in family cohesion three years later. Clinical and empirical research implications are presented and discussed. © 2016 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2016.

Beach response dynamics of a littoral cell using a 17-year single-point time series of sand thickness

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barnard, P.L.; Hubbard, D.M.; Dugan, J.E.

2012-01-01

A 17-year time series of near-daily sand thickness measurements at a single intertidal location was compared with 5. years of semi-annual 3-dimensional beach surveys at the same beach, and at two other beaches within the same littoral cell. The daily single point measurements correlated extremely well with the mean beach elevation and shoreline position of ten high-spatial resolution beach surveys. Correlations were statistically significant at all spatial scales, even for beach surveys 10s of kilometers downcoast, and therefore variability at the single point monitoring site was representative of regional coastal behavior, allowing us to examine nearly two decades of continuous coastal evolution. The annual cycle of beach oscillations dominated the signal, typical of this region, with additional, less intense spectral peaks associated with seasonal wave energy fluctuations (~. 45 to 90. days), as well as full lunar (~. 29. days) and semi-lunar (~. 13. days; spring-neap cycle) tidal cycles. Sand thickness variability was statistically linked to wave energy with a 2. month peak lag, as well as the average of the previous 7-8. months of wave energy. Longer term anomalies in sand thickness were also apparent on time scales up to 15. months. Our analyses suggest that spatially-limited morphological data sets can be extremely valuable (with robust validation) for understanding the details of beach response to wave energy over timescales that are not resolved by typical survey intervals, as well as the regional behavior of coastal systems. ?? 2011.

Bayesian change point analysis of abundance trends for pelagic fishes in the upper San Francisco Estuary.

PubMed

Thomson, James R; Kimmerer, Wim J; Brown, Larry R; Newman, Ken B; Mac Nally, Ralph; Bennett, William A; Feyrer, Frederick; Fleishman, Erica

2010-07-01

We examined trends in abundance of four pelagic fish species (delta smelt, longfin smelt, striped bass, and threadfin shad) in the upper San Francisco Estuary, California, USA, over 40 years using Bayesian change point models. Change point models identify times of abrupt or unusual changes in absolute abundance (step changes) or in rates of change in abundance (trend changes). We coupled Bayesian model selection with linear regression splines to identify biotic or abiotic covariates with the strongest associations with abundances of each species. We then refitted change point models conditional on the selected covariates to explore whether those covariates could explain statistical trends or change points in species abundances. We also fitted a multispecies change point model that identified change points common to all species. All models included hierarchical structures to model data uncertainties, including observation errors and missing covariate values. There were step declines in abundances of all four species in the early 2000s, with a likely common decline in 2002. Abiotic variables, including water clarity, position of the 2 per thousand isohaline (X2), and the volume of freshwater exported from the estuary, explained some variation in species' abundances over the time series, but no selected covariates could explain statistically the post-2000 change points for any species.

Reliable and accurate point-based prediction of cumulative infiltration using soil readily available characteristics: A comparison between GMDH, ANN, and MLR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahmati, Mehdi

2017-08-01

Developing accurate and reliable pedo-transfer functions (PTFs) to predict soil non-readily available characteristics is one of the most concerned topic in soil science and selecting more appropriate predictors is a crucial factor in PTFs' development. Group method of data handling (GMDH), which finds an approximate relationship between a set of input and output variables, not only provide an explicit procedure to select the most essential PTF input variables, but also results in more accurate and reliable estimates than other mostly applied methodologies. Therefore, the current research was aimed to apply GMDH in comparison with multivariate linear regression (MLR) and artificial neural network (ANN) to develop several PTFs to predict soil cumulative infiltration point-basely at specific time intervals (0.5-45 min) using soil readily available characteristics (RACs). In this regard, soil infiltration curves as well as several soil RACs including soil primary particles (clay (CC), silt (Si), and sand (Sa)), saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ks), bulk (Db) and particle (Dp) densities, organic carbon (OC), wet-aggregate stability (WAS), electrical conductivity (EC), and soil antecedent (θi) and field saturated (θfs) water contents were measured at 134 different points in Lighvan watershed, northwest of Iran. Then, applying GMDH, MLR, and ANN methodologies, several PTFs have been developed to predict cumulative infiltrations using two sets of selected soil RACs including and excluding Ks. According to the test data, results showed that developed PTFs by GMDH and MLR procedures using all soil RACs including Ks resulted in more accurate (with E values of 0.673-0.963) and reliable (with CV values lower than 11 percent) predictions of cumulative infiltrations at different specific time steps. In contrast, ANN procedure had lower accuracy (with E values of 0.356-0.890) and reliability (with CV values up to 50 percent) compared to GMDH and MLR. The results also revealed that Ks exclusion from input variables list caused around 30 percent decrease in PTFs accuracy for all applied procedures. However, it seems that Ks exclusion resulted in more practical PTFs especially in the case of GMDH network applying input variables which are less time consuming than Ks. In general, it is concluded that GMDH provides more accurate and reliable estimates of cumulative infiltration (a non-readily available characteristic of soil) with a minimum set of input variables (2-4 input variables) and can be promising strategy to model soil infiltration combining the advantages of ANN and MLR methodologies.

Extreme AGN Captured in a Low State by XMM-Newton and NuSTAR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frederick, Sara; Kara, Erin; Reynolds, Christopher S.

2018-01-01

The most variable active galactic nuclei (AGN), taken together, are a compelling wellspring of interesting accretion-related phenomena and can exhibit dramatic variability in the X-ray band down to timescales of a few minutes. We present the exemplifying case study of 1H 1934-063 (z = 0.0102), a narrow-line Seyfert I (NLS1) that is among the most variable AGN ever observed with XMM-Newton. We present spectroscopic and temporal analyses of a concurrent XMM-Newton and NuSTAR 120 ks observation, during which the source exhibited a steep (factor of 1.5) plummet and subsequent full recovery of flux that we explore in detail. Combined spectral and timing results point to a dramatic change in the continuum on timescales as short as a few ks. Similar to other highly variable Seyfert 1s, this AGN is X-ray bright and displays strong reflection spectral features. We find agreement with a change in the continuum, and we rule out absorption as the cause for this dramatic variability that is observed even at NuSTAR energies. We compare measurements from detailed time-resolved spectral fitting with Fourier-based timing results to constrain coronal geometry, dynamics, and emission/absorption processes dictating the nature of this variability. We also announce the discovery of a Fe-K time lag between the hard X-ray continuum emission (1-4 keV) and relativistically-blurred reprocessing by the inner accretion flow (0.3-1 keV).

Spatial uncertainty analysis: Propagation of interpolation errors in spatially distributed models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Phillips, D.L.; Marks, D.G.

1996-01-01

In simulation modelling, it is desirable to quantify model uncertainties and provide not only point estimates for output variables but confidence intervals as well. Spatially distributed physical and ecological process models are becoming widely used, with runs being made over a grid of points that represent the landscape. This requires input values at each grid point, which often have to be interpolated from irregularly scattered measurement sites, e.g., weather stations. Interpolation introduces spatially varying errors which propagate through the model We extended established uncertainty analysis methods to a spatial domain for quantifying spatial patterns of input variable interpolation errors and how they propagate through a model to affect the uncertainty of the model output. We applied this to a model of potential evapotranspiration (PET) as a demonstration. We modelled PET for three time periods in 1990 as a function of temperature, humidity, and wind on a 10-km grid across the U.S. portion of the Columbia River Basin. Temperature, humidity, and wind speed were interpolated using kriging from 700- 1000 supporting data points. Kriging standard deviations (SD) were used to quantify the spatially varying interpolation uncertainties. For each of 5693 grid points, 100 Monte Carlo simulations were done, using the kriged values of temperature, humidity, and wind, plus random error terms determined by the kriging SDs and the correlations of interpolation errors among the three variables. For the spring season example, kriging SDs averaged 2.6??C for temperature, 8.7% for relative humidity, and 0.38 m s-1 for wind. The resultant PET estimates had coefficients of variation (CVs) ranging from 14% to 27% for the 10-km grid cells. Maps of PET means and CVs showed the spatial patterns of PET with a measure of its uncertainty due to interpolation of the input variables. This methodology should be applicable to a variety of spatially distributed models using interpolated inputs.

Combining Fourier and lagged k-nearest neighbor imputation for biomedical time series data.

PubMed

Rahman, Shah Atiqur; Huang, Yuxiao; Claassen, Jan; Heintzman, Nathaniel; Kleinberg, Samantha

2015-12-01

Most clinical and biomedical data contain missing values. A patient's record may be split across multiple institutions, devices may fail, and sensors may not be worn at all times. While these missing values are often ignored, this can lead to bias and error when the data are mined. Further, the data are not simply missing at random. Instead the measurement of a variable such as blood glucose may depend on its prior values as well as that of other variables. These dependencies exist across time as well, but current methods have yet to incorporate these temporal relationships as well as multiple types of missingness. To address this, we propose an imputation method (FLk-NN) that incorporates time lagged correlations both within and across variables by combining two imputation methods, based on an extension to k-NN and the Fourier transform. This enables imputation of missing values even when all data at a time point is missing and when there are different types of missingness both within and across variables. In comparison to other approaches on three biological datasets (simulated and actual Type 1 diabetes datasets, and multi-modality neurological ICU monitoring) the proposed method has the highest imputation accuracy. This was true for up to half the data being missing and when consecutive missing values are a significant fraction of the overall time series length. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Detection of bifurcations in noisy coupled systems from multiple time series

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Williamson, Mark S., E-mail: m.s.williamson@exeter.ac.uk; Lenton, Timothy M.

We generalize a method of detecting an approaching bifurcation in a time series of a noisy system from the special case of one dynamical variable to multiple dynamical variables. For a system described by a stochastic differential equation consisting of an autonomous deterministic part with one dynamical variable and an additive white noise term, small perturbations away from the system's fixed point will decay slower the closer the system is to a bifurcation. This phenomenon is known as critical slowing down and all such systems exhibit this decay-type behaviour. However, when the deterministic part has multiple coupled dynamical variables, themore » possible dynamics can be much richer, exhibiting oscillatory and chaotic behaviour. In our generalization to the multi-variable case, we find additional indicators to decay rate, such as frequency of oscillation. In the case of approaching a homoclinic bifurcation, there is no change in decay rate but there is a decrease in frequency of oscillations. The expanded method therefore adds extra tools to help detect and classify approaching bifurcations given multiple time series, where the underlying dynamics are not fully known. Our generalisation also allows bifurcation detection to be applied spatially if one treats each spatial location as a new dynamical variable. One may then determine the unstable spatial mode(s). This is also something that has not been possible with the single variable method. The method is applicable to any set of time series regardless of its origin, but may be particularly useful when anticipating abrupt changes in the multi-dimensional climate system.« less

Detection of bifurcations in noisy coupled systems from multiple time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williamson, Mark S.; Lenton, Timothy M.

2015-03-01

We generalize a method of detecting an approaching bifurcation in a time series of a noisy system from the special case of one dynamical variable to multiple dynamical variables. For a system described by a stochastic differential equation consisting of an autonomous deterministic part with one dynamical variable and an additive white noise term, small perturbations away from the system's fixed point will decay slower the closer the system is to a bifurcation. This phenomenon is known as critical slowing down and all such systems exhibit this decay-type behaviour. However, when the deterministic part has multiple coupled dynamical variables, the possible dynamics can be much richer, exhibiting oscillatory and chaotic behaviour. In our generalization to the multi-variable case, we find additional indicators to decay rate, such as frequency of oscillation. In the case of approaching a homoclinic bifurcation, there is no change in decay rate but there is a decrease in frequency of oscillations. The expanded method therefore adds extra tools to help detect and classify approaching bifurcations given multiple time series, where the underlying dynamics are not fully known. Our generalisation also allows bifurcation detection to be applied spatially if one treats each spatial location as a new dynamical variable. One may then determine the unstable spatial mode(s). This is also something that has not been possible with the single variable method. The method is applicable to any set of time series regardless of its origin, but may be particularly useful when anticipating abrupt changes in the multi-dimensional climate system.

Observing the Fast X-ray Spectral Variability of NLS1 1H1934-063 with XMM-Newton and NuSTAR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frederick, Sara; Kara, Erin; Reynolds, Christopher S.

2017-08-01

The most variable active galactic nuclei (AGN), taken together, are a compelling wellspring of interesting accretion-related phenomena. They can exhibit dramatic variability in the X-ray band on a range of timescales down to a few minutes. We present the exemplifying case study of 1H1934-063 (z = 0.0102), a narrow-line Seyfert I (NLS1) that is among the most variable AGN ever observed with XMM-Newton. We present spectral and temporal analyses of a concurrent XMM-Newton and NuSTAR observation taken in 2015 and lasting 120 ks, during which the source exhibited a steep (factor of 1.5) plummet and subsequent full recovery of flux that we explore in detail here. Combined spectral and timing results point to a dramatic change in the continuum on timescales as short as a few ks. Similar to other highly variable Seyfert 1s, this AGN is quite X-ray bright and displays strong reflection spectral features. We find agreement with a change in the continuum, and we rule out absorption as the cause for this dramatic variability observed even at NuSTAR energies. We compare detailed time-resolved spectral fitting with Fourier-based timing analysis in order to constrain coronal geometry, dynamics, and emission/absorption processes dictating the nature of this variability. We also announce the discovery of a Fe-K time lag between the hard X-ray continuum emission (1 - 4 keV) and its relativistically-blurred reflection off the inner accretion flow (0.3 - 1 keV).

Inverse Ising problem in continuous time: A latent variable approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donner, Christian; Opper, Manfred

2017-12-01

We consider the inverse Ising problem: the inference of network couplings from observed spin trajectories for a model with continuous time Glauber dynamics. By introducing two sets of auxiliary latent random variables we render the likelihood into a form which allows for simple iterative inference algorithms with analytical updates. The variables are (1) Poisson variables to linearize an exponential term which is typical for point process likelihoods and (2) Pólya-Gamma variables, which make the likelihood quadratic in the coupling parameters. Using the augmented likelihood, we derive an expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm to obtain the maximum likelihood estimate of network parameters. Using a third set of latent variables we extend the EM algorithm to sparse couplings via L1 regularization. Finally, we develop an efficient approximate Bayesian inference algorithm using a variational approach. We demonstrate the performance of our algorithms on data simulated from an Ising model. For data which are simulated from a more biologically plausible network with spiking neurons, we show that the Ising model captures well the low order statistics of the data and how the Ising couplings are related to the underlying synaptic structure of the simulated network.

Recent updates in developing a statistical pseudo-dynamic source-modeling framework to capture the variability of earthquake rupture scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Seok Goo; Kwak, Sangmin; Lee, Kyungbook; Park, Donghee

2017-04-01

It is a critical element to predict the intensity and variability of strong ground motions in seismic hazard assessment. The characteristics and variability of earthquake rupture process may be a dominant factor in determining the intensity and variability of near-source strong ground motions. Song et al. (2014) demonstrated that the variability of earthquake rupture scenarios could be effectively quantified in the framework of 1-point and 2-point statistics of earthquake source parameters, constrained by rupture dynamics and past events. The developed pseudo-dynamic source modeling schemes were also validated against the recorded ground motion data of past events and empirical ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) at the broadband platform (BBP) developed by the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC). Recently we improved the computational efficiency of the developed pseudo-dynamic source-modeling scheme by adopting the nonparametric co-regionalization algorithm, introduced and applied in geostatistics initially. We also investigated the effect of earthquake rupture process on near-source ground motion characteristics in the framework of 1-point and 2-point statistics, particularly focusing on the forward directivity region. Finally we will discuss whether the pseudo-dynamic source modeling can reproduce the variability (standard deviation) of empirical GMPEs and the efficiency of 1-point and 2-point statistics to address the variability of ground motions.

Ephemeral active regions and coronal bright points: A solar maximum Mission 2 guest investigator study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harvey, K. L.; Tang, F. Y. C.; Gaizauskas, V.; Poland, A. I.

1986-01-01

A dominate association of coronal bright points (as seen in He wavelength 10830) was confirmed with the approach and subsequent disappearance of opposite polarity magnetic network. While coronal bright points do occur with ephemeral regions, this association is a factor of 2 to 4 less than with sites of disappearing magnetic flux. The intensity variations seen in He I wavelength 10830 are intermittent and often rapid, varying over the 3 minute time resolution of the data; their bright point counterparts in the C IV wavelength 1548 and 20 cm wavelength show similar, though not always coincident time variations. Ejecta are associated with about 1/3 of the dark points and are evident in the C IV and H alpha data. These results support the idea that the anti-correlation of X-ray bright points with the solar cycle can be explained by the correlation of these coronal emission structures with sites of cancelling flux, indicating that, in some cases, the process of magnetic flux removal results in the release of energy. That the intensity variations are rapid and variable suggests that this process works intermittently.

Characterizing the temporal variability of L-band backscatter using dense UAVSAR time-series in preparation for the NISAR mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lavalle, M.; Lee, A.; Shiroma, G. X. H.; Rosen, P. A.

2017-12-01

The NASA-ISRO SAR (NISAR) mission will deliver unprecedented global maps of L-band HH/HV backscatter every 12 days with resolution ranging from a few to tens of meters in support of ecosystem, solid Earth and cryosphere science and applications. Understanding and modeling the temporal variability of L-band backscatter over temporal scales of years, months and days is critical for developing retrieval algorithms that can robustly extract the biophysical variables of interest (e.g., forest biomass, soil moisture, etc.) from NISAR time series. In this talk, we will focus on the 5-year time series of 60 JPL/UAVSAR polarimetric images collected near the Sacramento Delta to characterize the inter-annual, seasonal and short-scale variability of the L-band polarimetric backscatter for a broad range of land cover types. Our preliminary analysis reveals that backscatter from man-made structures is very stable over time, whereas backscatter from bare soil and herbaceous vegetation fluctuates over time with standard deviation of 2.3 dB. Land-cover classes with larger biomass such as trees and tall vegetation show about 1.5 dB standard deviation in temporal backscatter variability. Closer examination of high-spatial resolution UAVSAR imagery reveal also that vegetation structure, speckle noise and horizontal forest heterogeneity in the Sacramento Delta area can significantly affect the point-wise backscatter value. In our talk, we will illustrate the long UAVSAR time series, describe our data analysis strategy, show the results of polarimetric variability for different land cover classes and number of looks, and discuss the implications for the development of NISAR L2/L3 retrieval algorithms of ecosystem science.

Youth and Work: Toward a Model of Lifetime Economic Prospects.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carroll, Stephen J.; Pascal, Anthony H.

As part of an effort to reduce inequalities in economic opportunities confronting the young, this general model of youth behavior and opportunity was developed. Underlying the model are three sets of variables which influence economic opportunities: experience, perceptions, and opportunities. The relations between behavior at a point in time and…

Temporal and spatial genetic variability among tarnished plant bug, Lygus lineolaris (Hemiptera: Mididae)population in a small geographic area

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Lygus lineolaris (Palisot de Beauvois) populations were sampled from five locations near Stoneville, MS, USA at three time points in May, July, and September 2006. Genotype data obtained from 1418 insects using 13 microsatellite markers were analyzed using standard methods to obtain population gene...

Applying Longitudinal Mean and Covariance Structures (LMACS) Analysis to Assess Construct Stability Over Two Time Points: An Example Using Psychological Entitlement

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bashkov, Bozhidar M.; Finney, Sara J.

2013-01-01

Traditional methods of assessing construct stability are reviewed and longitudinal mean and covariance structures (LMACS) analysis, a modern approach, is didactically illustrated using psychological entitlement data. Measurement invariance and latent variable stability results are interpreted, emphasizing substantive implications for educators and…

Effect of processing conditions on oil point pressure of moringa oleifera seed.

PubMed

Aviara, N A; Musa, W B; Owolarafe, O K; Ogunsina, B S; Oluwole, F A

2015-07-01

Seed oil expression is an important economic venture in rural Nigeria. The traditional techniques of carrying out the operation is not only energy sapping and time consuming but also wasteful. In order to reduce the tedium involved in the expression of oil from moringa oleifera seed and develop efficient equipment for carrying out the operation, the oil point pressure of the seed was determined under different processing conditions using a laboratory press. The processing conditions employed were moisture content (4.78, 6.00, 8.00 and 10.00 % wet basis), heating temperature (50, 70, 85 and 100 °C) and heating time (15, 20, 25 and 30 min). Results showed that the oil point pressure increased with increase in seed moisture content, but decreased with increase in heating temperature and heating time within the above ranges. Highest oil point pressure value of 1.1239 MPa was obtained at the processing conditions of 10.00 % moisture content, 50 °C heating temperature and 15 min heating time. The lowest oil point pressure obtained was 0.3164 MPa and it occurred at the moisture content of 4.78 %, heating temperature of 100 °C and heating time of 30 min. Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) showed that all the processing variables and their interactions had significant effect on the oil point pressure of moringa oleifera seed at 1 % level of significance. This was further demonstrated using Response Surface Methodology (RSM). Tukey's test and Duncan's Multiple Range Analysis successfully separated the means and a multiple regression equation was used to express the relationship existing between the oil point pressure of moringa oleifera seed and its moisture content, processing temperature, heating time and their interactions. The model yielded coefficients that enabled the oil point pressure of the seed to be predicted with very high coefficient of determination.

Linear dynamical modes as new variables for data-driven ENSO forecast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gavrilov, Andrey; Seleznev, Aleksei; Mukhin, Dmitry; Loskutov, Evgeny; Feigin, Alexander; Kurths, Juergen

2018-05-01

A new data-driven model for analysis and prediction of spatially distributed time series is proposed. The model is based on a linear dynamical mode (LDM) decomposition of the observed data which is derived from a recently developed nonlinear dimensionality reduction approach. The key point of this approach is its ability to take into account simple dynamical properties of the observed system by means of revealing the system's dominant time scales. The LDMs are used as new variables for empirical construction of a nonlinear stochastic evolution operator. The method is applied to the sea surface temperature anomaly field in the tropical belt where the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the main mode of variability. The advantage of LDMs versus traditionally used empirical orthogonal function decomposition is demonstrated for this data. Specifically, it is shown that the new model has a competitive ENSO forecast skill in comparison with the other existing ENSO models.

Dissolution comparisons using a Multivariate Statistical Distance (MSD) test and a comparison of various approaches for calculating the measurements of dissolution profile comparison.

PubMed

Cardot, J-M; Roudier, B; Schütz, H

2017-07-01

The f 2 test is generally used for comparing dissolution profiles. In cases of high variability, the f 2 test is not applicable, and the Multivariate Statistical Distance (MSD) test is frequently proposed as an alternative by the FDA and EMA. The guidelines provide only general recommendations. MSD tests can be performed either on raw data with or without time as a variable or on parameters of models. In addition, data can be limited-as in the case of the f 2 test-to dissolutions of up to 85% or to all available data. In the context of the present paper, the recommended calculation included all raw dissolution data up to the first point greater than 85% as a variable-without the various times as parameters. The proposed MSD overcomes several drawbacks found in other methods.

Cortisol and somatization.

PubMed

Rief, W; Auer, C

2000-05-01

Somatization symptoms are frequently associated with depression, anxiety, and feelings of distress. These features interact with the activity of the HPA-axis. Therefore we investigated relationships between somatization symptoms and cortisol. Seventy-seven participants were classified into three groups: somatization syndrome (at least eight physical symptoms from the DSM-IV somatization disorder list), somatization syndrome combined with major depression, and healthy controls. The following data were collected: salivary cortisol at three time points (morning, afternoon, evening), nighttime urinary cortisol, serum cortisol after the dexamethasone suppression test (DST), and psychological variables such as depression, anxiety, somatization, and hypochondriasis. Salivary cortisol showed typical diurnal variations. However, the groups did not differ on any of the cortisol variables. A possible explanation may be counteracting effects of somatization and depression. Exploratory correlational analyses revealed that associations between cortisol and psychopathological variables were time-dependent. DST results correlated with psychological aspects of somatization, but not with the number of somatoform symptoms per se.

Coordinated Multiwavelength Observations of PKS 0528+134 in Quiescence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boettcher, Markus; Palma, N.

2011-01-01

We report results of an intensive multiwavelength campaign on the prominent high-redshift (z = 2.06) gamma-ray bright blazar PKS 0528+134 in September - October 2009. The campaign was centered on four 30 ksec pointings with XMM-Newton, supplemented with ground-based optical (MDM, Perkins) and radio (UMRAO, Medicina, Metsaehovi, Noto, SMA) observations as well as long-term X-ray monitoring with RXTE and gamma-ray monitoring by Fermi. We find significant variability on 1 day time scales in the optical regime, accompanied by a weak redder-when-brighter trend. X-ray variability is found on longer ( 1 week) time scales, while the Fermi light curve shows no evidence for variability, neither in flux nor spectral index. We constructed four simultaneous spectral energy distributions, which can all be fit satisfactorily with a one-zone leptonic jet model. This work was supported by NASA through XMM-Newton Guest Observer Grant NNX09AV45G.

The outcome and survival of palliative surgery in thoraco-lumbar spinal metastases: contemporary retrospective cohort study.

PubMed

Nemelc, R M; Stadhouder, A; van Royen, B J; Jiya, T U

2014-11-01

Purpose: To evaluate outcome and survival and to identify prognostic variables for patients surgically treated for spinal metastases. Methods: A retrospective study was performed on 86 patients, surgically treated for spinal metastases. Preoperative analyses of the ASIA and spinal instability neoplastic scores (SINS) were performed. Survival curves of different prognostic variables were made by Kaplan–Meier analysis and the variables entered in a Cox proportional hazards model to determine their significance on survival. The correlation between preoperative radiotherapy and postoperative wound infections was also evaluated. Results: Survival analysis was performed on 81 patients,37 women and 44 men. Five patients were excluded due to missing data. Median overall survival was 38 weeks [95 % confidence interval (CI) 27.5–48.5 weeks], with a 3-month survival rate of 81.5 %. Breast tumor had the best median survival of 127 weeks and lung tumor the worst survival of 18 weeks. Univariate analysis showed tumor type, preoperative ASIA score (p = 0.01) and visceral metastases(p = 0.18) were significant prognostic variables for survival.Colon tumors had 5.53 times hazard ratio compared to patients with breast tumor. ASIA-C score had more than 13.03 times the hazard ratio compared to patients with an ASIA-E score. Retrospective analysis of the SINS scores showed 34 patients with a score of 13–18 points, 44 patients with a score of 7–12 points, and 1 patient with a score of 6 points. Preoperative radiotherapy had no influence on the postoperative incidence of deep surgical wound infections (p = 0.37). Patients with spinal metastases had a median survival of 38 weeks postoperative. The primary tumor type and ASIA score were significant prognostic factors for survival. Preoperative radiotherapy neither had influence on survival nor did it constitute a risk for postoperative surgical wound infections.

A multiple-time-scale turbulence model based on variable partitioning of turbulent kinetic energy spectrum

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, S.-W.; Chen, C.-P.

1988-01-01

The paper presents a multiple-time-scale turbulence model of a single point closure and a simplified split-spectrum method. Consideration is given to a class of turbulent boundary layer flows and of separated and/or swirling elliptic turbulent flows. For the separated and/or swirling turbulent flows, the present turbulence model yielded significantly improved computational results over those obtained with the standard k-epsilon turbulence model.

Coronae on stars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haisch, B. M.

1986-01-01

Three lines of evidence are noted to point to a flare heating source for stellar coronae: a strong correlation between time-averaged flare energy release and coronal X-ray luminosity, the high temperature flare-like component of the spectral signature of coronal X-ray emission, and the observed short time scale variability that indicates continuous flare activity. It is presently suggested that flares may represent only the extreme high energy tail of a continuous distribution of coronal energy release events.

The use of multiple time point dynamic positron emission tomography/computed tomography in patients with oral/head and neck cancer does not predictably identify metastatic cervical lymph nodes.

PubMed

Carlson, Eric R; Schaefferkoetter, Josh; Townsend, David; McCoy, J Michael; Campbell, Paul D; Long, Misty

2013-01-01

To determine whether the time course of 18-fluorine fluorodeoxyglucose (18F-FDG) activity in multiple consecutively obtained 18F-FDG positron emission tomography (PET)/computed tomography (CT) scans predictably identifies metastatic cervical adenopathy in patients with oral/head and neck cancer. It is hypothesized that the activity will increase significantly over time only in those lymph nodes harboring metastatic cancer. A prospective cohort study was performed whereby patients with oral/head and neck cancer underwent consecutive imaging at 9 time points with PET/CT from 60 to 115 minutes after injection with (18)F-FDG. The primary predictor variable was the status of the lymph nodes based on dynamic PET/CT imaging. Metastatic lymph nodes were defined as those that showed an increase greater than or equal to 10% over the baseline standard uptake values. The primary outcome variable was the pathologic status of the lymph node. A total of 2,237 lymph nodes were evaluated histopathologically in the 83 neck dissections that were performed in 74 patients. A total of 119 lymph nodes were noted to have hypermetabolic activity on the 90-minute (static) portion of the study and were able to be assessed by time points. When we compared the PET/CT time point (dynamic) data with the histopathologic analysis of the lymph nodes, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and accuracy were 60.3%, 70.5%, 66.0%, 65.2%, and 65.5%, respectively. The use of dynamic PET/CT imaging does not permit the ablative surgeon to depend only on the results of the PET/CT study to determine which patients will benefit from neck dissection. As such, we maintain that surgeons should continue to rely on clinical judgment and maintain a low threshold for executing neck dissection in patients with oral/head and neck cancer, including those patients with N0 neck designations. Copyright © 2013 American Association of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

General constraints on sampling wildlife on FIA plots

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bailey, L.L.; Sauer, J.R.; Nichols, J.D.; Geissler, P.H.; McRoberts, Ronald E.; Reams, Gregory A.; Van Deusen, Paul C.; McWilliams, William H.; Cieszewski, Chris J.

2005-01-01

This paper reviews the constraints to sampling wildlife populations at FIA points. Wildlife sampling programs must have well-defined goals and provide information adequate to meet those goals. Investigators should choose a State variable based on information needs and the spatial sampling scale. We discuss estimation-based methods for three State variables: species richness, abundance, and patch occupancy. All methods incorporate two essential sources of variation: detectability estimation and spatial variation. FIA sampling imposes specific space and time criteria that may need to be adjusted to meet local wildlife objectives.

Optical EVPA rotations in blazars: testing a stochastic variability model with RoboPol data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiehlmann, S.; Blinov, D.; Pearson, T. J.; Liodakis, I.

2017-12-01

We identify rotations of the polarization angle in a sample of blazars observed for three seasons with the RoboPol instrument. A simplistic stochastic variability model is tested against this sample of rotation events. The model is capable of producing samples of rotations with parameters similar to the observed ones, but fails to reproduce the polarization fraction at the same time. Even though we can neither accept nor conclusively reject the model, we point out various aspects of the observations that are fully consistent with a random walk process.

Air Force Research Initiation Program 1986 Technical Report Volume 2

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-04-01

the two time points where q I= I - Pi, etc. The likelihood of the whole data for the Truncated case can be written as 2 m.K xk m,-xk 7k Yn y k-n k L...variables as "truly independent". No matter how a problem is reformulated, it will always trend in the same direction on these variables. Trend...addition, the Principal Investigat,"r atteVidEd the VDI meetings and Network Management workshop as well as being consulted. The Principal Investigator al

SU-E-T-539: Fixed Versus Variable Optimization Points in Combined-Mode Modulated Arc Therapy Planning

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kainz, K; Prah, D; Ahunbay, E

2014-06-01

Purpose: A novel modulated arc therapy technique, mARC, enables superposition of step-and-shoot IMRT segments upon a subset of the optimization points (OPs) of a continuous-arc delivery. We compare two approaches to mARC planning: one with the number of OPs fixed throughout optimization, and another where the planning system determines the number of OPs in the final plan, subject to an upper limit defined at the outset. Methods: Fixed-OP mARC planning was performed for representative cases using Panther v. 5.01 (Prowess, Inc.), while variable-OP mARC planning used Monaco v. 5.00 (Elekta, Inc.). All Monaco planning used an upper limit of 91more » OPs; those OPs with minimal MU were removed during optimization. Plans were delivered, and delivery times recorded, on a Siemens Artiste accelerator using a flat 6MV beam with 300 MU/min rate. Dose distributions measured using ArcCheck (Sun Nuclear Corporation, Inc.) were compared with the plan calculation; the two were deemed consistent if they agreed to within 3.5% in absolute dose and 3.5 mm in distance-to-agreement among > 95% of the diodes within the direct beam. Results: Example cases included a prostate and a head-and-neck planned with a single arc and fraction doses of 1.8 and 2.0 Gy, respectively. Aside from slightly more uniform target dose for the variable-OP plans, the DVHs for the two techniques were similar. For the fixed-OP technique, the number of OPs was 38 and 39, and the delivery time was 228 and 259 seconds, respectively, for the prostate and head-and-neck cases. For the final variable-OP plans, there were 91 and 85 OPs, and the delivery time was 296 and 440 seconds, correspondingly longer than for fixed-OP. Conclusion: For mARC, both the fixed-OP and variable-OP approaches produced comparable-quality plans whose delivery was successfully verified. To keep delivery time per fraction short, a fixed-OP planning approach is preferred.« less

Disparity in disinfection byproducts concentration between hot and cold tap water.

PubMed

Liu, Boning; Reckhow, David A

2015-03-01

The quality of water entering a distribution system may differ substantially from the quality at the point of exposure to the consumer. This study investigated temporal variations in the levels of regulated and non-regulated disinfection byproducts (DBPs) in cold and hot tap water in a home on a medium-sized municipal water system. In addition, samples were collected directly from the water plant with some being held in accordance with a simulated distribution system (SDS) test protocol. The location for this work was a system in western Massachusetts, USA that uses free chlorine as a final disinfectant. Very little short term variability of DBPs at the point of entry (POE) was observed. The concentration of DBPs in the time-variable SDS test was similar to concentrations in the cold water tap. For most DBPs, the concentrations continued to increase as the cold water tap sample was held for the time-variable SDS incubation period. However, the impact of heating on DBP levels was compound specific. For example, the concentrations of trihalomethanes (THMs), dichloroacetic acid (DCAA) and chloropicrin (CP) were substantially higher in the hot water tap than in the cold water time-variable SDS samples. In contrast, the concentration of trichloroacetic acid (TCAA) was lower in the heated hot tap water, but about equal to that observed in the cold tap water. The situation was more pronounced for dichloroacetonitrile (DCAN), bromodichloroacetic acid (BDCAA), bromochloroacetic acid (BCAA) and 1,1,1-trichloropropanone (TCP), which all showed lower concentrations in the hot water then in either of the cold water samples (instantaneous or time-variable SDS). The latter was viewed as a clear indication of thermally-induced decomposition. The ratio of unknown total organic halide (UTOX) to TOX was substantially lower in the hot tap water as the THM to TOX ratio became correspondingly larger. The results of this study show that DBP exposure in the home is not well represented by concentrations measured in cold water taps where most compliance monitoring is done. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Improving Psychological Measurement: Does It Make a Difference? A Comment on Nesselroade and Molenaar (2016).

PubMed

Maydeu-Olivares, Alberto

2016-01-01

Nesselroade and Molenaar advocate the use of an idiographic filter approach. This is a fixed-effects approach, which may limit the number of individuals that can be simultaneously modeled, and it is not clear how to model the presence of subpopulations. Most important, Nesselroade and Molenaar's proposal appears to be best suited for modeling long time series on a few variables for a few individuals. Long time series are not common in psychological applications. Can it be applied to the usual longitudinal data we face? These are characterized by short time series (four to five points in time), hundreds of individuals, and dozens of variables. If so, what do we gain? Applied settings most often involve between-individual decisions. I conjecture that their approach will not outperform common, simpler, methods. However, when intraindividual decisions are involved, their approach may have an edge.

One Medicine, One Acupuncture

PubMed Central

Robinson, Narda G.

2012-01-01

Simple Summary “One Acupuncture”, modeled after “One Medicine”, embodies a system of translational acupuncture built upon science and hypothesis-driven research. Forging a synthesis between human and veterinary acupuncture requires consistency in point location across species so that meaningful comparisons can be made. The human acupuncture network provides a template of well-studied neurovascular sites that have changed little over the years, in comparison to their veterinary counterparts. This paper identifies disparities that remain. Reconciling inconsistencies will bolster the ability for researchers and clinicians to better understand and interpret findings from acupuncture studies on various species so that more can benefit from these insights. Abstract “One Acupuncture”, like “One Medicine”, has the potential to improve research quality and clinical outcomes. However, while human acupuncture point locations have remained largely consistent over time, the veterinary versions remain imprecise and variable. Establishing anatomical criteria for veterinary acupuncture atlases in keeping with the human template will create congruence across species, benefiting both research and practice. Anatomic criteria for points based on objectively verifiable structures will facilitate translational research. Functionally comparative innervation, in particular, should be similar between species, as the nerves initiate and mediate physiologic changes that result from point stimulation. If researchers choose points that activate different nerves in one species than in another, unpredictable outcomes may occur. Variability in point placement will impede progress and hamper the ability of researchers and clinicians to make meaningful comparisons across species. This paper reveals incongruities that remain between human and veterinary acupuncture points, illustrating the need to analyze anatomical characteristics of each point to assure accuracy in selecting transpositional acupuncture locations. PMID:26487029

The endurance of the effects of the penalty point system in Spain three years after. Main influencing factors.

PubMed

Izquierdo, F Aparicio; Ramírez, B Arenas; McWilliams, J M Mira; Ayuso, J Páez

2011-05-01

In this work we have used ARIMA time series models to analyse the contribution of the penalty point system, the most important legislative measure for driving licences, in reducing the number of fatalities over 24h on the roads in Spain during the study period (January 1995 to June 2009). In addition, because of this long period of analysis, other control variables were introduced to model the enactment of the Reform of the Penal Code in December 2007, together with other more specific effects needed to fit the model correctly. The ARIMA intervention models methodology combines the basic features of specific times series models: it controls the trend and seasonal variation in data that is present when modelling the structure through autoregressive and moving average parameters and allows for inserting step or impulse input variables for checking and evaluating the effects of deterministic measures, such as legislative changes which are the object of study in this work. This paper analyses the surveillance and control measures introduced in the periods before and after the implementation of the penalty point system and helps to partly explain its apparent endurance over time. The results show that the introduction of the penalty point system in Spain had a very positive effect in reducing the number of fatalities (over 24h) on the road, and that this effect has endured up to the present time. This success may be due to the continuing increase in surveillance measures and fines as well the significantly growing interest shown by the news media in road safety since the measures were introduced. All this has led to positive changes in driver behaviour. It is, therefore, a combination of three factors: the penalty point system, the gradual stepping up of surveillance measures and sanctions, and the publicity given to road safety issues in the mass media would appear to be the key to success. The absence of any of these three factors would have predictably led to a far less positive evolution of the accident rate on Spanish roads. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mendelian randomization analysis of a time-varying exposure for binary disease outcomes using functional data analysis methods.

PubMed

Cao, Ying; Rajan, Suja S; Wei, Peng

2016-12-01

A Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis is performed to analyze the causal effect of an exposure variable on a disease outcome in observational studies, by using genetic variants that affect the disease outcome only through the exposure variable. This method has recently gained popularity among epidemiologists given the success of genetic association studies. Many exposure variables of interest in epidemiological studies are time varying, for example, body mass index (BMI). Although longitudinal data have been collected in many cohort studies, current MR studies only use one measurement of a time-varying exposure variable, which cannot adequately capture the long-term time-varying information. We propose using the functional principal component analysis method to recover the underlying individual trajectory of the time-varying exposure from the sparsely and irregularly observed longitudinal data, and then conduct MR analysis using the recovered curves. We further propose two MR analysis methods. The first assumes a cumulative effect of the time-varying exposure variable on the disease risk, while the second assumes a time-varying genetic effect and employs functional regression models. We focus on statistical testing for a causal effect. Our simulation studies mimicking the real data show that the proposed functional data analysis based methods incorporating longitudinal data have substantial power gains compared to standard MR analysis using only one measurement. We used the Framingham Heart Study data to demonstrate the promising performance of the new methods as well as inconsistent results produced by the standard MR analysis that relies on a single measurement of the exposure at some arbitrary time point. © 2016 WILEY PERIODICALS, INC.

Environmental triggers of Past Ebola Outbreaks in Africa, 1981 - 2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dartevelle, S.; NguyRobertson, A. L.

2016-12-01

Ebola virus, especially its most common and lethal form, Zaire Ebolavirus, has eluded scientists nearly 50 years. What is its primary host? Why does it go dormant to suddenly to reappear full force years later? What are the driving forces behind its intriguing dynamic? It has been surmised that local environmental factors (such as droughts, seasons) might be at play behind the on-and-off Ebola outbreak outbursts. However, so far, no clear lead has been demonstrated making Ebola a constant hidden lethal menace lurking in the environment for many African communities. We have analyzed long-term time-series of three environmental variables that influence the controlling factor behind the cycle of Ebola virus outbreaks: (i) vegetation health, as determined from the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) collected by AVHRR and MODIS satellite sensors, and the weather variables (ii) temperature and (iii) precipitation from the Climate Forecast System ver. 2. Time series data were averaged monthly and spatially over a 100 km grid around past known outbreak locations. Seasonal effects were removed from these time series before applying statistical analyses identifying causal linkages between NDVI, temperature, precipitation and Ebola outbreaks. Likewise, possible tipping-points prior to outbreaks (i.e., early warning signals of an upcoming outbreak) were identified. Our results indicate that there is a causal dynamic link between outbreaks and the three environmental variables examined months prior to an outbreak. This was likely due to an abnormal change in the local precipitation pattern which influence NDVI values and to a lesser extent temperature. Furthermore, our results provide evidence that these factors demonstrate early warning signals of a dynamical system at a tipping-point, prior to a future outbreak. These tipping-point or early warning models may open new ways to furthermore develop forecast models of future Ebola outbreaks. [US Government — Approved for Public Release 16-560].

Development of a Novel Floating In-situ Gelling System for Stomach Specific Drug Delivery of the Narrow Absorption Window Drug Baclofen.

PubMed

R Jivani, Rishad; N Patel, Chhagan; M Patel, Dashrath; P Jivani, Nurudin

2010-01-01

The present study deals with development of a floating in-situ gel of the narrow absorption window drug baclofen. Sodium alginate-based in-situ gelling systems were prepared by dissolving various concentrations of sodium alginate in deionized water, to which varying concentrations of drug and calcium bicarbonate were added. Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) and differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) were used to check the presence of any interaction between the drug and the excipients. A 3(2) full factorial design was used for optimization. The concentrations of sodium alginate (X1) and calcium bicarbonate (X2) were selected as the independent variables. The amount of the drug released after 1 h (Q1) and 10 h (Q10) and the viscosity of the solution were selected as the dependent variables. The gels were studied for their viscosity, in-vitro buoyancy and drug release. Contour plots were drawn for each dependent variable and check-point batches were prepared in order to get desirable release profiles. The drug release profiles were fitted into different kinetic models. The floating lag time and floating time found to be 2 min and 12 h respectively. A decreasing trend in drug release was observed with increasing concentrations of CaCO3. The computed values of Q1 and Q10 for the check-point batch were 25% and 86% respectively, compared to the experimental values of 27.1% and 88.34%. The similarity factor (f 2) for the check-point batch being 80.25 showed that the two dissolution profiles were similar. The drug release from the in-situ gel follows the Higuchi model, which indicates a diffusion-controlled release. A stomach specific in-situ gel of baclofen could be prepared using floating mechanism to increase the residence time of the drug in stomach and thereby increase the absorption.

Optimization of phase feeding of starter, grower, and finisher diets for male broilers by mixture experimental design: forty-eight-day production period.

PubMed

Roush, W B; Boykin, D; Branton, S L

2004-08-01

A mixture experiment, a variant of response surface methodology, was designed to determine the proportion of time to feed broiler starter (23% protein), grower (20% protein), and finisher (18% protein) diets to optimize production and processing variables based on a total production time of 48 d. Mixture designs are useful for proportion problems where the components of the experiment (i.e., length of time the diets were fed) add up to a unity (48 d). The experiment was conducted with day-old male Ross x Ross broiler chicks. The birds were placed 50 birds per pen in each of 60 pens. The experimental design was a 10-point augmented simplex-centroid (ASC) design with 6 replicates of each point. Each design point represented the portion(s) of the 48 d that each of the diets was fed. Formulation of the diets was based on NRC standards. At 49 d, each pen of birds was evaluated for production data including BW, feed conversion, and cost of feed consumed. Then, 6 birds were randomly selected from each pen for processing data. Processing variables included live weight, hot carcass weight, dressing percentage, fat pad percentage, and breast yield (pectoralis major and pectoralis minor weights). Production and processing data were fit to simplex regression models. Model terms determined not to be significant (P > 0.05) were removed. The models were found to be statistically adequate for analysis of the response surfaces. A compromise solution was calculated based on optimal constraints designated for the production and processing data. The results indicated that broilers fed a starter and finisher diet for 30 and 18 d, respectively, would meet the production and processing constraints. Trace plots showed that the production and processing variables were not very sensitive to the grower diet.

Extended Fitts' model of pointing time in eye-gaze input system - Incorporating effects of target shape and movement direction into modeling.

PubMed

Murata, Atsuo; Fukunaga, Daichi

2018-04-01

This study attempted to investigate the effects of the target shape and the movement direction on the pointing time using an eye-gaze input system and extend Fitts' model so that these factors are incorporated into the model and the predictive power of Fitts' model is enhanced. The target shape, the target size, the movement distance, and the direction of target presentation were set as within-subject experimental variables. The target shape included: a circle, and rectangles with an aspect ratio of 1:1, 1:2, 1:3, and 1:4. The movement direction included eight directions: upper, lower, left, right, upper left, upper right, lower left, and lower right. On the basis of the data for identifying the effects of the target shape and the movement direction on the pointing time, an attempt was made to develop a generalized and extended Fitts' model that took into account the movement direction and the target shape. As a result, the generalized and extended model was found to fit better to the experimental data, and be more effective for predicting the pointing time for a variety of human-computer interaction (HCI) task using an eye-gaze input system. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Neural network-based nonlinear model predictive control vs. linear quadratic gaussian control

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cho, C.; Vance, R.; Mardi, N.; Qian, Z.; Prisbrey, K.

1997-01-01

One problem with the application of neural networks to the multivariable control of mineral and extractive processes is determining whether and how to use them. The objective of this investigation was to compare neural network control to more conventional strategies and to determine if there are any advantages in using neural network control in terms of set-point tracking, rise time, settling time, disturbance rejection and other criteria. The procedure involved developing neural network controllers using both historical plant data and simulation models. Various control patterns were tried, including both inverse and direct neural network plant models. These were compared to state space controllers that are, by nature, linear. For grinding and leaching circuits, a nonlinear neural network-based model predictive control strategy was superior to a state space-based linear quadratic gaussian controller. The investigation pointed out the importance of incorporating state space into neural networks by making them recurrent, i.e., feeding certain output state variables into input nodes in the neural network. It was concluded that neural network controllers can have better disturbance rejection, set-point tracking, rise time, settling time and lower set-point overshoot, and it was also concluded that neural network controllers can be more reliable and easy to implement in complex, multivariable plants.

Stability analysis of BWR nuclear-coupled thermal-hyraulics using a simple model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Karve, A.A.; Rizwan-uddin; Dorning, J.J.

1995-09-01

A simple mathematical model is developed to describe the dynamics of the nuclear-coupled thermal-hydraulics in a boiling water reactor (BWR) core. The model, which incorporates the essential features of neutron kinetics, and single-phase and two-phase thermal-hydraulics, leads to simple dynamical system comprised of a set of nonlinear ordinary differential equations (ODEs). The stability boundary is determined and plotted in the inlet-subcooling-number (enthalpy)/external-reactivity operating parameter plane. The eigenvalues of the Jacobian matrix of the dynamical system also are calculated at various steady-states (fixed points); the results are consistent with those of the direct stability analysis and indicate that a Hopf bifurcationmore » occurs as the stability boundary in the operating parameter plane is crossed. Numerical simulations of the time-dependent, nonlinear ODEs are carried out for selected points in the operating parameter plane to obtain the actual damped and growing oscillations in the neutron number density, the channel inlet flow velocity, and the other phase variables. These indicate that the Hopf bifurcation is subcritical, hence, density wave oscillations with growing amplitude could result from a finite perturbation of the system even where the steady-state is stable. The power-flow map, frequently used by reactor operators during start-up and shut-down operation of a BWR, is mapped to the inlet-subcooling-number/neutron-density (operating-parameter/phase-variable) plane, and then related to the stability boundaries for different fixed inlet velocities corresponding to selected points on the flow-control line. The stability boundaries for different fixed inlet subcooling numbers corresponding to those selected points, are plotted in the neutron-density/inlet-velocity phase variable plane and then the points on the flow-control line are related to their respective stability boundaries in this plane.« less

Visualization of Time-Series Sensor Data to Inform the Design of Just-In-Time Adaptive Stress Interventions.

PubMed

Sharmin, Moushumi; Raij, Andrew; Epstien, David; Nahum-Shani, Inbal; Beck, J Gayle; Vhaduri, Sudip; Preston, Kenzie; Kumar, Santosh

2015-09-01

We investigate needs, challenges, and opportunities in visualizing time-series sensor data on stress to inform the design of just-in-time adaptive interventions (JITAIs). We identify seven key challenges: massive volume and variety of data, complexity in identifying stressors, scalability of space, multifaceted relationship between stress and time, a need for representation at multiple granularities, interperson variability, and limited understanding of JITAI design requirements due to its novelty. We propose four new visualizations based on one million minutes of sensor data (n=70). We evaluate our visualizations with stress researchers (n=6) to gain first insights into its usability and usefulness in JITAI design. Our results indicate that spatio-temporal visualizations help identify and explain between- and within-person variability in stress patterns and contextual visualizations enable decisions regarding the timing, content, and modality of intervention. Interestingly, a granular representation is considered informative but noise-prone; an abstract representation is the preferred starting point for designing JITAIs.

Visualization of Time-Series Sensor Data to Inform the Design of Just-In-Time Adaptive Stress Interventions

PubMed Central

Sharmin, Moushumi; Raij, Andrew; Epstien, David; Nahum-Shani, Inbal; Beck, J. Gayle; Vhaduri, Sudip; Preston, Kenzie; Kumar, Santosh

2015-01-01

We investigate needs, challenges, and opportunities in visualizing time-series sensor data on stress to inform the design of just-in-time adaptive interventions (JITAIs). We identify seven key challenges: massive volume and variety of data, complexity in identifying stressors, scalability of space, multifaceted relationship between stress and time, a need for representation at multiple granularities, interperson variability, and limited understanding of JITAI design requirements due to its novelty. We propose four new visualizations based on one million minutes of sensor data (n=70). We evaluate our visualizations with stress researchers (n=6) to gain first insights into its usability and usefulness in JITAI design. Our results indicate that spatio-temporal visualizations help identify and explain between- and within-person variability in stress patterns and contextual visualizations enable decisions regarding the timing, content, and modality of intervention. Interestingly, a granular representation is considered informative but noise-prone; an abstract representation is the preferred starting point for designing JITAIs. PMID:26539566

Experimental determination of material damping using vibration analyzer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chowdhury, Mostafiz R.; Chowdhury, Farida

1990-01-01

Structural damping is an important dynamic characteristic of engineering materials that helps to damp vibrations by reducing their amplitudes. In this investigation, an experimental method is illustrated to determine the damping characteristics of engineering materials using a dual channel Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) analyzer. A portable Compaq III computer which houses the analyzer, is used to collect the dynamic responses of three metal rods. Time-domain information is analyzed to obtain the logarithmic decrement of their damping. The damping coefficients are then compared to determine the variation of damping from material to material. The variations of damping from one point to another of the same material, due to a fixed point excitation, and the variable damping at a fixed point due to excitation at different points, are also demonstrated.

The Hot-Pressing of Hafnium Carbide (Melting Point, 7030 F)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sanders, William A.; Grisaffe, Salvatore J.

1960-01-01

An investigation was undertaken to determine the effects of the hot-pressing variables (temperature, pressure, and time) on the density and grain size of hafnium carbide disks. The purpose was to provide information necessary for the production of high-density test shapes for the determination of physical and mechanical properties. Hot-pressing of -325 mesh hafnium carbide powder was accomplished with a hydraulic press and an inductively heated graphite die assembly. The ranges investigated for each variable were as follows: temperature, 3500 to 4870 F; pressure, 1000 to 6030 pounds per square inch; and time, 5 to 60 minutes. Hafnium carbide bodies of approximately 98 percent theoretical density can be produced under the following minimal conditions: 4230 F, 3500 pounds per square inch, and 15 minutes. Further increases in temperature and time resulted only in greater grain size.

The role of transcriptome resilience in resistance of corals to bleaching.

PubMed

Seneca, Francois O; Palumbi, Stephen R

2015-04-01

Wild populations increasingly experience extreme conditions as climate change amplifies environmental variability. How individuals respond to environmental extremes determines the impact of climate change overall. The variability of response from individual to individual can represent the opportunity for natural selection to occur as a result of extreme conditions. Here, we experimentally replicated the natural exposure to extreme temperatures of the reef lagoon at Ofu Island (American Samoa), where corals can experience severe heat stress during midday low tide. We investigated the bleaching and transcriptome response of 20 Acropora hyacinthus colonies 5 and 20 h after exposure to control (29 °C) or heated (35 °C) conditions. We found a highly dynamic transcriptome response: 27% of the coral transcriptome was significantly regulated 1 h postheat exposure. Yet 15 h later, when heat-induced coral bleaching became apparent, only 12% of the transcriptome was differentially regulated. A large proportion of responsive genes at the first time point returned to control levels, others remained differentially expressed over time, while an entirely different subset of genes was successively regulated at the second time point. However, a noteworthy variability in gene expression was observed among individual coral colonies. Among the genes of which expression lingered over time, fast return to normal levels was associated with low bleaching. Colonies that maintained higher expression levels of these genes bleached severely. Return to normal levels of gene expression after stress has been termed transcriptome resilience, and in the case of some specific genes may signal the physiological health and response ability of individuals to environmental stress. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

"Should I tell my employer and coworkers I have arthritis?" A longitudinal examination of self-disclosure in the work place.

PubMed

Gignac, Monique A M; Cao, Xingshan

2009-12-15

To examine arthritis self-disclosure at work, factors associated with disclosure, and prospective relationships of self-disclosure and work place support with changes to work place interactions, work transitions, and work place stress. Using a structured questionnaire, participants with osteoarthritis or inflammatory arthritis were interviewed at 4 time points, 18 months apart. At time 1, all participants (n = 490; 381 women, 109 men) were employed. Of the entire sample, 71% were retained throughout the study. Respondents were recruited using community advertising and from rheumatology and rehabilitation clinics. Self-disclosure and perceived support from managers and coworkers was assessed, as well as demographic, illness, work-context, and psychological variables. Generalized estimating equations modeled associations of disclosure and support on changes at work (e.g., job disruptions, work place stress). At each time point, 70.6-76.6% of participants had self-disclosed arthritis to their manager and 85.2-88.1% had told a coworker. Intraindividual variability in disclosure was considerable. Factors associated with self-disclosure were often inconsistent over time, with the exception of variables assessing the need to self-disclose (e.g., activity limitations) and perceived coworker support. Self-disclosure was not associated with changes to work. However, coworker support was related to fewer job disruptions, help with work tasks, and being less likely to reduce hours. Perceived managerial support was associated with less work place stress. Greater awareness is needed about issues related to self-disclosing arthritis at work. This study emphasizes the importance of a supportive work place, especially supportive coworkers, in decisions to discuss arthritis at work and in changes to work that might enable people to remain employed.

Thermal, physiological and perceptual strain mediate alterations in match-play tennis under heat stress.

PubMed

Périard, Julien D; Racinais, Sébastien; Knez, Wade L; Herrera, Christopher P; Christian, Ryan J; Girard, Olivier

2014-04-01

This study compared the thermal, physiological and perceptual responses associated with match-play tennis in HOT (∼34°C wet-bulb-globe temperature (WBGT)) and COOL (∼19°C WBGT) conditions, along with the accompanying alterations in match characteristics. 12 male tennis players undertook two matches for an effective playing time (ie, ball in play) of 20 min, corresponding to ∼119 and ∼102 min of play in HOT and COOL conditions, respectively. Rectal and skin temperatures, heart rate, subjective ratings of thermal comfort, thermal sensation and perceived exertion were recorded, along with match characteristics. End-match rectal temperature increased to a greater extent in the HOT (∼39.4°C) compared with the COOL (∼38.7°C) condition (p<0.05). Thigh skin temperature was higher throughout the HOT match (p<0.001). Heart rate, thermal comfort, thermal sensation and perceived exertion were also higher during the HOT match (p<0.001). Total playing time was longer in the HOT compared with the COOL match (p<0.05). Point duration (∼7.1 s) was similar between conditions, while the time between points was ∼10 s longer in the HOT relative to the COOL match (p<0.05). This led to a ∼3.4% lower effective playing percentage in the heat (p<0.05). Although several thermal, physiological and perceptual variables were individually correlated to the adjustments in time between points and effective playing percentage, thermal sensation was the only predictor variable associated with both adjustments (p<0.005). These adjustments in match-play tennis characteristics under severe heat stress appear to represent a behavioural strategy adopted to minimise or offset the sensation of environmental conditions being rated as difficult.

Self-Exciting Point Process Modeling of Conversation Event Sequences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masuda, Naoki; Takaguchi, Taro; Sato, Nobuo; Yano, Kazuo

Self-exciting processes of Hawkes type have been used to model various phenomena including earthquakes, neural activities, and views of online videos. Studies of temporal networks have revealed that sequences of social interevent times for individuals are highly bursty. We examine some basic properties of event sequences generated by the Hawkes self-exciting process to show that it generates bursty interevent times for a wide parameter range. Then, we fit the model to the data of conversation sequences recorded in company offices in Japan. In this way, we can estimate relative magnitudes of the self excitement, its temporal decay, and the base event rate independent of the self excitation. These variables highly depend on individuals. We also point out that the Hawkes model has an important limitation that the correlation in the interevent times and the burstiness cannot be independently modulated.

Effect of nose shape on three-dimensional stagnation region streamlines and heating rates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hassan, Basil; Dejarnette, Fred R.; Zoby, E. V.

1991-01-01

A new method for calculating the three-dimensional inviscid surface streamlines and streamline metrics using Cartesian coordinates and time as the independent variable of integration has been developed. The technique calculates the streamline from a specified point on the body to a point near the stagnation point by using a prescribed pressure distribution in the Euler equations. The differential equations, which are singular at the stagnation point, are of the two point boundary value problem type. Laminar heating rates are calculated using the axisymmetric analog concept for three-dimensional boundary layers and approximate solutions to the axisymmetric boundary layer equations. Results for elliptic conic forebody geometries show that location of the point of maximum heating depends on the type of conic in the plane of symmetry and the angle of attack, and that this location is in general different from the stagnation point. The new method was found to give smooth predictions of heat transfer in the nose region where previous methods gave oscillatory results.

Legendre submanifolds in contact manifolds as attractors and geometric nonequilibrium thermodynamics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Goto, Shin-itiro, E-mail: sgoto@ims.ac.jp

It has been proposed that equilibrium thermodynamics is described on Legendre submanifolds in contact geometry. It is shown in this paper that Legendre submanifolds embedded in a contact manifold can be expressed as attractors in phase space for a certain class of contact Hamiltonian vector fields. By giving a physical interpretation that points outside the Legendre submanifold can represent nonequilibrium states of thermodynamic variables, in addition to that points of a given Legendre submanifold can represent equilibrium states of the variables, this class of contact Hamiltonian vector fields is physically interpreted as a class of relaxation processes, in which thermodynamicmore » variables achieve an equilibrium state from a nonequilibrium state through a time evolution, a typical nonequilibrium phenomenon. Geometric properties of such vector fields on contact manifolds are characterized after introducing a metric tensor field on a contact manifold. It is also shown that a contact manifold and a strictly convex function induce a lower dimensional dually flat space used in information geometry where a geometrization of equilibrium statistical mechanics is constructed. Legendre duality on contact manifolds is explicitly stated throughout.« less

Efficient robust doubly adaptive regularized regression with applications.

PubMed

Karunamuni, Rohana J; Kong, Linglong; Tu, Wei

2018-01-01

We consider the problem of estimation and variable selection for general linear regression models. Regularized regression procedures have been widely used for variable selection, but most existing methods perform poorly in the presence of outliers. We construct a new penalized procedure that simultaneously attains full efficiency and maximum robustness. Furthermore, the proposed procedure satisfies the oracle properties. The new procedure is designed to achieve sparse and robust solutions by imposing adaptive weights on both the decision loss and the penalty function. The proposed method of estimation and variable selection attains full efficiency when the model is correct and, at the same time, achieves maximum robustness when outliers are present. We examine the robustness properties using the finite-sample breakdown point and an influence function. We show that the proposed estimator attains the maximum breakdown point. Furthermore, there is no loss in efficiency when there are no outliers or the error distribution is normal. For practical implementation of the proposed method, we present a computational algorithm. We examine the finite-sample and robustness properties using Monte Carlo studies. Two datasets are also analyzed.

Home advantage in southern hemisphere rugby union: national and international.

PubMed

Morton R, Hugh

2006-05-01

This study evaluates home advantages both for national (Super 12) and international (Tri-nations) rugby union teams from South Africa, Australia and New Zealand, over the five-year period 2000 - 2004 using linear modelling. These home advantages are examined for statistical and practical significance, for variability between teams, for stability over time and for inter-correlation. These data reveal that the overall home advantage in elite rugby union has a mean of +6.7 points, and that this changes little from year to year. Closer scrutiny nevertheless reveals a high degree of variability. Different teams can and do have different home advantages, which ranges from a low of -0.7 to a high of +28.3 points in any one year. Furthermore, some team home advantages change up or down from one year to the next, by as much as -36.5 to +31.4 points at the extremes. There is no evidence that the stronger teams have the higher home advantages, or that a high home advantage leads to a superior finishing position in the competition.

Bayesian Inference for Functional Dynamics Exploring in fMRI Data.

PubMed

Guo, Xuan; Liu, Bing; Chen, Le; Chen, Guantao; Pan, Yi; Zhang, Jing

2016-01-01

This paper aims to review state-of-the-art Bayesian-inference-based methods applied to functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data. Particularly, we focus on one specific long-standing challenge in the computational modeling of fMRI datasets: how to effectively explore typical functional interactions from fMRI time series and the corresponding boundaries of temporal segments. Bayesian inference is a method of statistical inference which has been shown to be a powerful tool to encode dependence relationships among the variables with uncertainty. Here we provide an introduction to a group of Bayesian-inference-based methods for fMRI data analysis, which were designed to detect magnitude or functional connectivity change points and to infer their functional interaction patterns based on corresponding temporal boundaries. We also provide a comparison of three popular Bayesian models, that is, Bayesian Magnitude Change Point Model (BMCPM), Bayesian Connectivity Change Point Model (BCCPM), and Dynamic Bayesian Variable Partition Model (DBVPM), and give a summary of their applications. We envision that more delicate Bayesian inference models will be emerging and play increasingly important roles in modeling brain functions in the years to come.

A time domain inverse dynamic method for the end point tracking control of a flexible manipulator

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kwon, Dong-Soo; Book, Wayne J.

1991-01-01

The inverse dynamic equation of a flexible manipulator was solved in the time domain. By dividing the inverse system equation into the causal part and the anticausal part, we calculated the torque and the trajectories of all state variables for a given end point trajectory. The interpretation of this method in the frequency domain was explained in detail using the two-sided Laplace transform and the convolution integral. The open loop control of the inverse dynamic method shows an excellent result in simulation. For real applications, a practical control strategy is proposed by adding a feedback tracking control loop to the inverse dynamic feedforward control, and its good experimental performance is presented.

AGN Accretion Physics in the Time Domain: Survey Cadences, Stochastic Analysis, and Physical Interpretations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moreno, Jackeline; Vogeley, Michael S.; Richards, Gordon; O'Brien, John T.; Kasliwal, Vishal

2018-01-01

We present rigorous testing of survey cadences (K2, SDSS, CRTS, & Pan-STARRS) for quasar variability science using a magnetohydrodynamics synthetic lightcurve and the canonical lightcurve from Kepler, Zw 229.15. We explain where the state of the art is in regards to physical interpretations of stochastic models (CARMA) applied to AGN variability. Quasar variability offers a time domain approach of probing accretion physics at the SMBH scale. Evidence shows that the strongest amplitude changes in the brightness of AGN occur on long timescales ranging from months to hundreds of days. These global behaviors can be constrained by survey data despite low sampling resolution. CARMA processes provide a flexible family of models used to interpolate between data points, predict future observations and describe behaviors in a lightcurve. This is accomplished by decomposing a signal into rise and decay timescales, frequencies for cyclic behavior and shock amplitudes. Characteristic timescales may point to length-scales over which a physical process operates such as turbulent eddies, warping or hotspots due to local thermal instabilities. We present the distribution of SDSS Stripe 82 quasars in CARMA parameters space that pass our cadence tests and also explain how the Damped Harmonic Oscillator model, CARMA(2,1), reduces to the Damped Random Walk, CARMA(1,0), given the data in a specific region of the parameter space.

A Hybrid Symbiotic Organisms Search Algorithm with Variable Neighbourhood Search for Solving Symmetric and Asymmetric Traveling Salesman Problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Umam, M. I. H.; Santosa, B.

2018-04-01

Combinatorial optimization has been frequently used to solve both problems in science, engineering, and commercial applications. One combinatorial problems in the field of transportation is to find a shortest travel route that can be taken from the initial point of departure to point of destination, as well as minimizing travel costs and travel time. When the distance from one (initial) node to another (destination) node is the same with the distance to travel back from destination to initial, this problems known to the Traveling Salesman Problem (TSP), otherwise it call as an Asymmetric Traveling Salesman Problem (ATSP). The most recent optimization techniques is Symbiotic Organisms Search (SOS). This paper discuss how to hybrid the SOS algorithm with variable neighborhoods search (SOS-VNS) that can be applied to solve the ATSP problem. The proposed mechanism to add the variable neighborhoods search as a local search is to generate the better initial solution and then we modify the phase of parasites with adapting mechanism of mutation. After modification, the performance of the algorithm SOS-VNS is evaluated with several data sets and then the results is compared with the best known solution and some algorithm such PSO algorithm and SOS original algorithm. The SOS-VNS algorithm shows better results based on convergence, divergence and computing time.

Prospective versus predictive control in timing of hitting a falling ball.

PubMed

Katsumata, Hiromu; Russell, Daniel M

2012-02-01

Debate exists as to whether humans use prospective or predictive control to intercept an object falling under gravity (Baurès et al. in Vis Res 47:2982-2991, 2007; Zago et al. in Vis Res 48:1532-1538, 2008). Prospective control involves using continuous information to regulate action. τ, the ratio of the size of the gap to the rate of gap closure, has been proposed as the information used in guiding interceptive actions prospectively (Lee in Ecol Psychol 10:221-250, 1998). This form of control is expected to generate movement modulation, where variability decreases over the course of an action based upon more accurate timing information. In contrast, predictive control assumes that a pre-programmed movement is triggered at an appropriate criterion timing variable. For a falling object it is commonly argued that an internal model of gravitational acceleration is used to predict the motion of the object and determine movement initiation. This form of control predicts fixed duration movements initiated at consistent time-to-contact (TTC), either across conditions (constant criterion operational timing) or within conditions (variable criterion operational timing). The current study sought to test predictive and prospective control hypotheses by disrupting continuous visual information of a falling ball and examining consistency in movement initiation and duration, and evidence for movement modulation. Participants (n = 12) batted a ball dropped from three different heights (1, 1.3 and 1.5 m), under both full-vision and partial occlusion conditions. In the occlusion condition, only the initial ball drop and the final 200 ms of ball flight to the interception point could be observed. The initiation of the swing did not occur at a consistent TTC, τ, or any other timing variable across drop heights, in contrast with previous research. However, movement onset was not impacted by occluding the ball flight for 280-380 ms. This finding indicates that humans did not need to be continuously coupled to vision of the ball to initiate the swing accurately, but instead could use predictive control based on acceleration timing information (TTC2). However, other results provide evidence for movement modulation, a characteristic of prospective control. Strong correlations between movement initiation and duration and reduced timing variability from swing onset to arrival at the interception point, both support compensatory variability. An analysis of modulation within the swing revealed that early in the swing, the movement acceleration was strongly correlated to the required mean velocity at swing onset and that later in the swing, the movement acceleration was again strongly correlated with the current required mean velocity. Rather than a consistent movement initiated at the same time, these findings show that the swing was variable but modulated for meeting the demands of each trial. A prospective model of coupling τ (bat-ball) with τ (ball-target) was found to provide a very strong linear fit for an average of 69% of the movement duration. These findings provide evidence for predictive control based on TTC2 information in initiating the swing and prospective control based on τ in guiding the bat to intercept the ball.

How long bones grow children: Mechanistic paths to variation in human height growth.

PubMed

Lampl, Michelle; Schoen, Meriah

2017-03-01

Eveleth and Tanner's descriptive documentation of worldwide variability in human growth provided evidence of the interaction between genetics and environment during development that has been foundational to the science of human growth. There remains a need, however, to describe the mechanistic foundations of variability in human height growth patterns. A review of research documenting cellular activities at the endochondral growth plate aims to show how the unique microenvironment and cell functions during the sequential phases of the chondrocyte lifecycle affect long bone elongation, a fundamental source of height growth. There are critical junctures within the chondrocytic differentiation cascade at which environmental influences are integrated and have the ability to influence progression to the hypertrophic chondrocyte phase, the primary driver of long bone elongation. Phenotypic differences in height growth patterns reflect variability in amplitude and frequency of discretely timed hypertrophic cellular expansion events, the cellular basis of saltation and stasis growth biology. Final height is a summary of the dynamic processes carried out by the growth plate cellular machinery. As these cell-level mechanisms unfold in an individual, time-specific manner, there are many critical points at which a genetic growth program can be enhanced or perturbed. Recognizing both the complexity and fluidity of this adaptive system questions the likelihood of a single, optimal growth pattern and instead identifies a larger bandwidth of saltatory frequencies for "normal" growth. Further inquiry into mechanistic sources of variability acting at critical organizational points of chondrogenesis can provide new opportunities for growth interventions. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

On the construction, comparison, and variability of airsheds for interpreting semivolatile organic compounds in passively sampled air.

PubMed

Westgate, John N; Wania, Frank

2011-10-15

Air mass origin as determined by back trajectories often aids in explaining some of the short-term variability in the atmospheric concentrations of semivolatile organic contaminants. Airsheds, constructed by amalgamating large numbers of back trajectories, capture average air mass origins over longer time periods and thus have found use in interpreting air concentrations obtained by passive air samplers. To explore some of their key characteristics, airsheds for 54 locations on Earth were constructed and compared for roundness, seasonality, and interannual variability. To avoid the so-called "pole problem" and to simplify the calculation of roundness, a "geodesic grid" was used to bin the back-trajectory end points. Departures from roundness were seen to occur at all latitudes and to correlate significantly with local slope but no strong relationship between latitude and roundness was revealed. Seasonality and interannual variability vary widely enough to imply that static models of transport are not sufficient to describe the proximity of an area to potential sources of contaminants. For interpreting an air measurement an airshed should be generated specifically for the deployment time of the sampler, especially when investigating long-term trends. Samples taken in a single season may not represent the average annual atmosphere, and samples taken in linear, as opposed to round, airsheds may not represent the average atmosphere in the area. Simple methods are proposed to ascertain the significance of an airshed or individual cell. It is recommended that when establishing potential contaminant source regions only end points with departure heights of less than ∼700 m be considered.

Momentary assessment of PTSD symptoms and sexual risk behavior in male OEF/OIF/OND Veterans.

PubMed

Black, Anne C; Cooney, Ned L; Justice, Amy C; Fiellin, Lynn E; Pietrzak, Robert H; Lazar, Christina M; Rosen, Marc I

2016-01-15

Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in Veterans is associated with increased sexual risk behaviors, but the nature of this association is not well understood. Typical PTSD measurement deriving a summary estimate of symptom severity over a period of time precludes inferences about symptom variability, and whether momentary changes in symptom severity predict risk behavior. We assessed the feasibility of measuring daily PTSD symptoms, substance use, and high-risk sexual behavior in Veterans using ecological momentary assessment (EMA). Feasibility indicators were survey completion, PTSD symptom variability, and variability in rates of substance use and sexual risk behavior. Nine male Veterans completed web-based questionnaires by cell phone three times per day for 28 days. Median within-day survey completion rates maintained near 90%, and PTSD symptoms showed high within-person variability, ranging up to 59 points on the 80-point scale. Six Veterans reported alcohol or substance use, and substance users reported use of more than one drug. Eight Veterans reported 1 to 28 high-risk sexual events. Heightened PTSD-related negative affect and externalizing behaviors preceded high-risk sexual events. Greater PTSD symptom instability was associated with having multiple sexual partners in the 28-day period. These results are preliminary, given this small sample size, and multiple comparisons, and should be verified with larger Veteran samples. Results support the feasibility and utility of using of EMA to better understand the relationship between PTSD symptoms and sexual risk behavior in Veterans. Specific antecedent-risk behavior patterns provide promise for focused clinical interventions. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Re/Os constraint on the time variability of the fine-structure constant.

PubMed

Fujii, Yasunori; Iwamoto, Akira

2003-12-31

We argue that the accuracy by which the isochron parameters of the decay 187Re-->187Os are determined by dating iron meteorites may constrain the possible time dependence of the decay rate and hence of the fine-structure constant alpha, not directly but only in a model-dependent manner. From this point of view, some of the attempts to analyze the Oklo constraint and the results of the quasistellar-object absorption lines are reexamined.

Survival analysis with error-prone time-varying covariates: a risk set calibration approach

PubMed Central

Liao, Xiaomei; Zucker, David M.; Li, Yi; Spiegelman, Donna

2010-01-01

Summary Occupational, environmental, and nutritional epidemiologists are often interested in estimating the prospective effect of time-varying exposure variables such as cumulative exposure or cumulative updated average exposure, in relation to chronic disease endpoints such as cancer incidence and mortality. From exposure validation studies, it is apparent that many of the variables of interest are measured with moderate to substantial error. Although the ordinary regression calibration approach is approximately valid and efficient for measurement error correction of relative risk estimates from the Cox model with time-independent point exposures when the disease is rare, it is not adaptable for use with time-varying exposures. By re-calibrating the measurement error model within each risk set, a risk set regression calibration method is proposed for this setting. An algorithm for a bias-corrected point estimate of the relative risk using an RRC approach is presented, followed by the derivation of an estimate of its variance, resulting in a sandwich estimator. Emphasis is on methods applicable to the main study/external validation study design, which arises in important applications. Simulation studies under several assumptions about the error model were carried out, which demonstrated the validity and efficiency of the method in finite samples. The method was applied to a study of diet and cancer from Harvard’s Health Professionals Follow-up Study (HPFS). PMID:20486928

Growth Modeling with Nonignorable Dropout: Alternative Analyses of the STAR*D Antidepressant Trial

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Muthen, Bengt; Asparouhov, Tihomir; Hunter, Aimee M.; Leuchter, Andrew F.

2011-01-01

This article uses a general latent variable framework to study a series of models for nonignorable missingness due to dropout. Nonignorable missing data modeling acknowledges that missingness may depend not only on covariates and observed outcomes at previous time points as with the standard missing at random assumption, but also on latent…

The Relation between Binge Drinking and Academic Performance: Considering the Mediating Effects of Academic Involvement

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

An, Brian P.; Loes, Chad N.; Trolian, Teniell L.

2017-01-01

Using longitudinal data from multiple institutions, we focused on the relation between binge drinking and academic performance. Binge drinking exerts a negative influence on grade point average, even after accounting for a host of precollege confounding variables. Furthermore, the number of times a student binge drinks in college is less…

A Vernacular for Linear Latent Growth Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hancock, Gregory R.; Choi, Jaehwa

2006-01-01

In its most basic form, latent growth modeling (latent curve analysis) allows an assessment of individuals' change in a measured variable X over time. For simple linear models, as with other growth models, parameter estimates associated with the a construct (amount of X at a chosen temporal reference point) and b construct (growth in X per unit…

Growth of Expressive Syntax in Children with Fragile X Syndrome

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Komesidou, Rouzana; Brady, Nancy C.; Fleming, Kandace; Esplund, Amy; Warren, Steven F.

2017-01-01

Purpose: This research explored syntactic growth in children with fragile X syndrome (FXS) over a 5-year period, and variability in growth in relation to autism symptoms, nonverbal cognition, maternal responsivity, and gender. Method: Language samples at 4 time points from 39 children with FXS, 31 boys and 8 girls, were analyzed using the Index of…

A General Approach to Defining Latent Growth Components

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mayer, Axel; Steyer, Rolf; Mueller, Horst

2012-01-01

We present a 3-step approach to defining latent growth components. In the first step, a measurement model with at least 2 indicators for each time point is formulated to identify measurement error variances and obtain latent variables that are purged from measurement error. In the second step, we use contrast matrices to define the latent growth…

Use of Mobile Applications for Hospital Discharge Letters: Improving Handover at Point of Practice

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Maher, Bridget; Drachsler, Hendrik; Kalz, Marco; Hoare, Cathal; Sorensen, Humphrey; Lezcano, Leonardo; Henn, Pat; Specht, Marcus

2013-01-01

Handover of patient care is a time of particular risk and it is important that accurate and relevant information is clearly communicated. The hospital discharge letter is an important part of handover. However, the quality of hospital discharge letters is variable and letters frequently omit important information. The Cork Letter-Writing…

Optimizing the sequence of diameter distributions and selection harvests for uneven-aged stand management

Treesearch

Robert G. Haight; J. Douglas Brodie; Darius M. Adams

1985-01-01

The determination of an optimal sequence of diameter distributions and selection harvests for uneven-aged stand management is formulated as a discrete-time optimal-control problem with bounded control variables and free-terminal point. An efficient programming technique utilizing gradients provides solutions that are stable and interpretable on the basis of economic...

Connecting the Forgotten Half: The School-to-Work Transition of Noncollege-Bound Youth

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ling, Thomson J.; O'Brien, Karen M.

2013-01-01

While previous research has examined the school-to-work transition of noncollege-bound youth, most have considered how a limited set of variables relate to job attainment at a single point in time. This exploratory study extended beyond the identification of constructs associated with obtaining a job to investigate how several factors, collected…

Anomalous dispersion in correlated porous media: a coupled continuous time random walk approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Comolli, Alessandro; Dentz, Marco

2017-09-01

We study the causes of anomalous dispersion in Darcy-scale porous media characterized by spatially heterogeneous hydraulic properties. Spatial variability in hydraulic conductivity leads to spatial variability in the flow properties through Darcy's law and thus impacts on solute and particle transport. We consider purely advective transport in heterogeneity scenarios characterized by broad distributions of heterogeneity length scales and point values. Particle transport is characterized in terms of the stochastic properties of equidistantly sampled Lagrangian velocities, which are determined by the flow and conductivity statistics. The persistence length scales of flow and transport velocities are imprinted in the spatial disorder and reflect the distribution of heterogeneity length scales. Particle transitions over the velocity length scales are kinematically coupled with the transition time through velocity. We show that the average particle motion follows a coupled continuous time random walk (CTRW), which is fully parameterized by the distribution of flow velocities and the medium geometry in terms of the heterogeneity length scales. The coupled CTRW provides a systematic framework for the investigation of the origins of anomalous dispersion in terms of heterogeneity correlation and the distribution of conductivity point values. We derive analytical expressions for the asymptotic scaling of the moments of the spatial particle distribution and first arrival time distribution (FATD), and perform numerical particle tracking simulations of the coupled CTRW to capture the full average transport behavior. Broad distributions of heterogeneity point values and lengths scales may lead to very similar dispersion behaviors in terms of the spatial variance. Their mechanisms, however are very different, which manifests in the distributions of particle positions and arrival times, which plays a central role for the prediction of the fate of dissolved substances in heterogeneous natural and engineered porous materials. Contribution to the Topical Issue "Continuous Time Random Walk Still Trendy: Fifty-year History, Current State and Outlook", edited by Ryszard Kutner and Jaume Masoliver.

Are Study and Journal Characteristics Reliable Indicators of "Truth" in Imaging Research?

PubMed

Frank, Robert A; McInnes, Matthew D F; Levine, Deborah; Kressel, Herbert Y; Jesurum, Julia S; Petrcich, William; McGrath, Trevor A; Bossuyt, Patrick M

2018-04-01

Purpose To evaluate whether journal-level variables (impact factor, cited half-life, and Standards for Reporting of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies [STARD] endorsement) and study-level variables (citation rate, timing of publication, and order of publication) are associated with the distance between primary study results and summary estimates from meta-analyses. Materials and Methods MEDLINE was searched for meta-analyses of imaging diagnostic accuracy studies, published from January 2005 to April 2016. Data on journal-level and primary-study variables were extracted for each meta-analysis. Primary studies were dichotomized by variable as first versus subsequent publication, publication before versus after STARD introduction, STARD endorsement, or by median split. The mean absolute deviation of primary study estimates from the corresponding summary estimates for sensitivity and specificity was compared between groups. Means and confidence intervals were obtained by using bootstrap resampling; P values were calculated by using a t test. Results Ninety-eight meta-analyses summarizing 1458 primary studies met the inclusion criteria. There was substantial variability, but no significant differences, in deviations from the summary estimate between paired groups (P > .0041 in all comparisons). The largest difference found was in mean deviation for sensitivity, which was observed for publication timing, where studies published first on a topic demonstrated a mean deviation that was 2.5 percentage points smaller than subsequently published studies (P = .005). For journal-level factors, the greatest difference found (1.8 percentage points; P = .088) was in mean deviation for sensitivity in journals with impact factors above the median compared with those below the median. Conclusion Journal- and study-level variables considered important when evaluating diagnostic accuracy information to guide clinical decisions are not systematically associated with distance from the truth; critical appraisal of individual articles is recommended. © RSNA, 2017 Online supplemental material is available for this article.

Anxiety as a factor influencing physiological effects of acupuncture.

PubMed

Vickland, Victor; Rogers, Carole; Craig, Ashley; Tran, Yvonne

2009-08-01

This study investigated the influence of manual acupuncture on heart rate variability and the role which anxiety can play in modifying physiological outcomes. Analysis of heart rate variability (HRV) was used as a sensitive and a reliable indicator of the balance between sympathetic and parasympathetic regulation of the heartbeat. Two groups of healthy female subjects were recruited into the study. The control group (n=30) attended one experimental session where no acupuncture treatment was used. The experimental group (n=30) attended three sessions in which unilateral manual stimulation of acupuncture points LU7 and KD6 was performed. The stimulation of the acupuncture points LU7 and KD6 was not associated with significant changes in HRV. Previous familiarity with acupuncture did not influence the outcomes but level of anxiety had a strong impact on physiological outcomes. Stimulation of LU7 acupuncture point counterbalanced naturally occurring sympathetic increase over time and had relaxing and harmonizing effect on the heart rhythm without influencing subjective perception of increased anxiety. Stimulation of KD6 acupuncture point had sympathetic influence on HRV in subjects with low "trait" anxiety and this influence was nullified by simultaneous stimulation of LU7 acupuncture point. It seems likely that the level of anxiety can modify HRV during acupuncture treatment and up to 40 min after the treatment. Psychological factors such as anxiety level should be considered as having important influence on physiological response to acupuncture.

Exposure to traffic pollution, acute inflammation and autonomic response in a panel of car commuters.

PubMed

Sarnat, Jeremy A; Golan, Rachel; Greenwald, Roby; Raysoni, Amit U; Kewada, Priya; Winquist, Andrea; Sarnat, Stefanie E; Dana Flanders, W; Mirabelli, Maria C; Zora, Jennifer E; Bergin, Michael H; Yip, Fuyuen

2014-08-01

Exposure to traffic pollution has been linked to numerous adverse health endpoints. Despite this, limited data examining traffic exposures during realistic commutes and acute response exists. We conducted the Atlanta Commuters Exposures (ACE-1) Study, an extensive panel-based exposure and health study, to measure chemically-resolved in-vehicle exposures and corresponding changes in acute oxidative stress, lipid peroxidation, pulmonary and systemic inflammation and autonomic response. We recruited 42 adults (21 with and 21 without asthma) to conduct two 2-h scripted highway commutes during morning rush hour in the metropolitan Atlanta area. A suite of in-vehicle particulate components were measured in the subjects' private vehicles. Biomarker measurements were conducted before, during, and immediately after the commutes and in 3 hourly intervals after commutes. At measurement time points within 3h after the commute, we observed mild to pronounced elevations relative to baseline in exhaled nitric oxide, C-reactive-protein, and exhaled malondialdehyde, indicative of pulmonary and systemic inflammation and oxidative stress initiation, as well as decreases relative to baseline levels in the time-domain heart-rate variability parameters, SDNN and rMSSD, indicative of autonomic dysfunction. We did not observe any detectable changes in lung function measurements (FEV1, FVC), the frequency-domain heart-rate variability parameter or other systemic biomarkers of vascular injury. Water soluble organic carbon was associated with changes in eNO at all post-commute time-points (p<0.0001). Our results point to measureable changes in pulmonary and autonomic biomarkers following a scripted 2-h highway commute. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Exposure to traffic pollution, acute inflammation and autonomic response in a panel of car commuters

PubMed Central

Sarnat, Jeremy A.; Golan, Rachel; Greenwald, Roby; Raysoni, Amit U.; Kewada, Priya; Winquist, Andrea; Sarnat, Stefanie E.; Flanders, W. Dana; Mirabelli, Maria C.; Zora, Jennifer E.; Bergin, Michael H.; Yip, Fuyuen

2015-01-01

Background Exposure to traffic pollution has been linked to numerous adverse health endpoints. Despite this, limited data examining traffic exposures during realistic commutes and acute response exists. Objectives: We conducted the Atlanta Commuters Exposures (ACE-1) Study, an extensive panel-based exposure and health study, to measure chemically-resolved in-vehicle exposures and corresponding changes in acute oxidative stress, lipid peroxidation, pulmonary and systemic inflammation and autonomic response. Methods We recruited 42 adults (21 with and 21 without asthma) to conduct two 2-h scripted highway commutes during morning rush hour in the metropolitan Atlanta area. A suite of in-vehicle particulate components were measured in the subjects’ private vehicles. Biomarker measurements were conducted before, during, and immediately after the commutes and in 3 hourly intervals after commutes. Results At measurement time points within 3 h after the commute, we observed mild to pronounced elevations relative to baseline in exhaled nitric oxide, C-reactive-protein, and exhaled malondialdehyde, indicative of pulmonary and systemic inflammation and oxidative stress initiation, as well as decreases relative to baseline levels in the time-domain heart-rate variability parameters, SDNN and rMSSD, indicative of autonomic dysfunction. We did not observe any detectable changes in lung function measurements (FEV1, FVC), the frequency-domain heart-rate variability parameter or other systemic biomarkers of vascular injury. Water soluble organic carbon was associated with changes in eNO at all post-commute time-points (p < 0.0001). Conclusions Our results point to measureable changes in pulmonary and autonomic biomarkers following a scripted 2-h highway commute. PMID:24906070

Process optimization for osmo-dehydrated carambola (Averrhoa carambola L) slices and its storage studies.

PubMed

Roopa, N; Chauhan, O P; Raju, P S; Das Gupta, D K; Singh, R K R; Bawa, A S

2014-10-01

An osmotic-dehydration process protocol for Carambola (Averrhoacarambola L.,), an exotic star shaped tropical fruit, was developed. The process was optimized using Response Surface Methodology (RSM) following Central Composite Rotatable Design (CCRD). The experimental variables selected for the optimization were soak solution concentration (°Brix), soaking temperature (°C) and soaking time (min) with 6 experiments at central point. The effect of process variables was studied on solid gain and water loss during osmotic dehydration process. The data obtained were analyzed employing multiple regression technique to generate suitable mathematical models. Quadratic models were found to fit well (R(2), 95.58 - 98.64 %) in describing the effect of variables on the responses studied. The optimized levels of the process variables were achieved at 70°Brix, 48 °C and 144 min for soak solution concentration, soaking temperature and soaking time, respectively. The predicted and experimental results at optimized levels of variables showed high correlation. The osmo-dehydrated product prepared at optimized conditions showed a shelf-life of 10, 8 and 6 months at 5 °C, ambient (30 ± 2 °C) and 37 °C, respectively.

Assessing Variability in Brain Tumor Segmentation to Improve Volumetric Accuracy and Characterization of Change.

PubMed

Rios Piedra, Edgar A; Taira, Ricky K; El-Saden, Suzie; Ellingson, Benjamin M; Bui, Alex A T; Hsu, William

2016-02-01

Brain tumor analysis is moving towards volumetric assessment of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), providing a more precise description of disease progression to better inform clinical decision-making and treatment planning. While a multitude of segmentation approaches exist, inherent variability in the results of these algorithms may incorrectly indicate changes in tumor volume. In this work, we present a systematic approach to characterize variability in tumor boundaries that utilizes equivalence tests as a means to determine whether a tumor volume has significantly changed over time. To demonstrate these concepts, 32 MRI studies from 8 patients were segmented using four different approaches (statistical classifier, region-based, edge-based, knowledge-based) to generate different regions of interest representing tumor extent. We showed that across all studies, the average Dice coefficient for the superset of the different methods was 0.754 (95% confidence interval 0.701-0.808) when compared to a reference standard. We illustrate how variability obtained by different segmentations can be used to identify significant changes in tumor volume between sequential time points. Our study demonstrates that variability is an inherent part of interpreting tumor segmentation results and should be considered as part of the interpretation process.

Statistical analysis of environmental variability within the CELSS breadboard project's biomass production chamber

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stutte, G. W.; Chetirkin, P. V.; Mackowiak, C. L.; Fortson, R. E.

1993-01-01

Variability in the aerial and root environments of NASA's Breadboard Project's Biomass Production Chamber (BPC) was determined. Data from two lettuce and two potato growouts were utilized. One growout of each crop was conducted prior to separating the upper and lower chambers; the other was subsequent to separation. There were little or no differences in pH, EC, or solution temperature between the upper and lower chamber or within a chamber. Variation in the aerial environment within a chamber was two to three times greater than variation between chambers for air temperature, relative humidity, and PPF. High variability in air velocity, relative to tray position, was observed. Separating the BPC had no effect on PPF, air velocity, solution temperature, pH, or EC. Separation reduced the gradient in air temperature and relative humidity between the upper and lower chambers, but increased the variability within a chamber. Variation between upper and lower chambers was within 5 percent of environmental set-points and of little or no physiological significance. In contrast, the variability within a chamber limits the capability of the BPC to generate statistically reliable data from individual tray treatments at this time.

Short-term variability in QT interval and ventricular arrhythmias induced by dofetilide are dependent on high-frequency autonomic oscillations

PubMed Central

Champeroux, P; Thireau, J; Judé, S; Laigot-Barbé, C; Maurin, A; Sola, M L; Fowler, J S L; Richard, S; Le Guennec, J Y

2015-01-01

Background and Purpose The present study was undertaken to investigate an effect of dofetilide, a potent arrhythmic blocker of the voltage-gated K+ channel, hERG, on cardiac autonomic control. Combined with effects on ardiomyocytes, these properties could influence its arrhythmic potency. Experimental Approach The short-term variability of beat-to-beat QT interval (STVQT), induced by dofetilide is a strong surrogate of Torsades de pointes liability. Involvement of autonomic modulation in STVQT was investigated in healthy cynomolgus monkeys and beagle dogs by power spectral analysis under conditions of autonomic blockade with hexamethonium. Key Results Increase in STVQT induced by dofetilide in monkeys and dogs was closely associated with an enhancement of endogenous heart rate and QT interval high-frequency (HF) oscillations. These effects were fully suppressed under conditions of autonomic blockade with hexamethonium. Ventricular arrhythmias, including Torsades de pointes in monkeys, were prevented in both species when HF oscillations were suppressed by autonomic blockade. Similar enhancements of heart rate HF oscillations were found in dogs with other hERG blockers described as causing Torsades de pointes in humans. Conclusions and Implications These results demonstrate for the first time that beat-to-beat ventricular repolarization variability and ventricular arrhythmias induced by dofetilide are dependent on endogenous HF autonomic oscillations in heart rate. When combined with evidence of hERG-blocking properties, enhancement of endogenous HF oscillations in heart rate could constitute an earlier and more sensitive biomarker than STVQT for Torsades de pointes liability, applicable to preclinical regulatory studies conducted in healthy animals. PMID:25625756

Comparisons of chewing rhythm, craniomandibular morphology, body mass and height between mothers and their biological daughters.

PubMed

Cho, Catherine; Louie, Ke'ale; Maawadh, Ahmed; Gerstner, Geoffrey E

2015-11-01

To study and compare the relationships between mean chewing cycle duration, selected cephalometric variables representing mandibular length, face height, etc., measured in women and in their teenage or young-adult biological daughters. Daughters were recruited from local high schools and the University of Michigan School of Dentistry. Selection criteria included healthy females with full dentition, 1st molar occlusion, no active orthodontics, no medical conditions nor medication use that could interfere with normal masticatory motor function. Mothers had to be biologically related to their daughters. All data were obtained in the School of Dentistry. Measurements obtained from lateral cephalograms included: two "jaw length" measures, condylion-gnathion and gonion-gnathion, and four measures of facial profile including lower anterior face height, and angles sella-nasion-A point (SNA), sella-nasion-B point (SNB) and A point-nasion-B point (ANB). Mean cycle duration was calculated from 60 continuous chewing cycles, where a cycle was defined as the time between two successive maximum jaw openings in the vertical dimension. Other variables included subject height and weight. Linear and logistic regression analyses were used to evaluate the mother-daughter relationships and to study the relationships between cephalometric variables and chewing cycle duration. Height, weight, Co-Gn and Go-Gn were significantly correlated between mother-daughter pairs; however, mean cycle duration was not (r(2)=0.015). Mean cycle duration was positively correlated with ANB and height in mothers, but negatively correlated with Co-Gn in daughters. Chewing rate is not correlated between mothers and daughters in humans. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Short-term variability in QT interval and ventricular arrhythmias induced by dofetilide are dependent on high-frequency autonomic oscillations.

PubMed

Champeroux, P; Thireau, J; Judé, S; Laigot-Barbé, C; Maurin, A; Sola, M L; Fowler, J S L; Richard, S; Le Guennec, J Y

2015-06-01

The present study was undertaken to investigate an effect of dofetilide, a potent arrhythmic blocker of the voltage-gated K(+) channel, hERG, on cardiac autonomic control. Combined with effects on ardiomyocytes, these properties could influence its arrhythmic potency. The short-term variability of beat-to-beat QT interval (STVQT ), induced by dofetilide is a strong surrogate of Torsades de pointes liability. Involvement of autonomic modulation in STVQT was investigated in healthy cynomolgus monkeys and beagle dogs by power spectral analysis under conditions of autonomic blockade with hexamethonium. Increase in STVQT induced by dofetilide in monkeys and dogs was closely associated with an enhancement of endogenous heart rate and QT interval high-frequency (HF) oscillations. These effects were fully suppressed under conditions of autonomic blockade with hexamethonium. Ventricular arrhythmias, including Torsades de pointes in monkeys, were prevented in both species when HF oscillations were suppressed by autonomic blockade. Similar enhancements of heart rate HF oscillations were found in dogs with other hERG blockers described as causing Torsades de pointes in humans. These results demonstrate for the first time that beat-to-beat ventricular repolarization variability and ventricular arrhythmias induced by dofetilide are dependent on endogenous HF autonomic oscillations in heart rate. When combined with evidence of hERG-blocking properties, enhancement of endogenous HF oscillations in heart rate could constitute an earlier and more sensitive biomarker than STVQT for Torsades de pointes liability, applicable to preclinical regulatory studies conducted in healthy animals. © 2015 The British Pharmacological Society.

Expanding space-time and variable vacuum energy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parmeggiani, Claudio

2017-08-01

The paper describes a cosmological model which contemplates the presence of a vacuum energy varying, very slightly (now), with time. The constant part of the vacuum energy generated, some 6 Gyr ago, a deceleration/acceleration transition of the metric expansion; so now, in an aged Universe, the expansion is inexorably accelerating. The vacuum energy varying part is instead assumed to be eventually responsible of an acceleration/deceleration transition, which occurred about 14 Gyr ago; this transition has a dynamic origin: it is a consequence of the general relativistic Einstein-Friedmann equations. Moreover, the vacuum energy (constant and variable) is here related to the zero-point energy of some quantum fields (scalar, vector, or spinor); these fields are necessarily described in a general relativistic way: their structure depends on the space-time metric, typically non-flat. More precisely, the commutators of the (quantum field) creation/annihilation operators are here assumed to depend on the local value of the space-time metric tensor (and eventually of its curvature); furthermore, these commutators rapidly decrease for high momentum values and they reduce to the standard ones for a flat metric. In this way, the theory is ”gravitationally” regularized; in particular, the zero-point (vacuum) energy density has a well defined value and, for a non static metric, depends on the (cosmic) time. Note that this varying vacuum energy can be negative (Fermi fields) and that a change of its sign typically leads to a minimum for the metric expansion factor (a ”bounce”).

Solution of the advection-dispersion equation by a finite-volume eulerian-lagrangian local adjoint method

USGS Publications Warehouse

Healy, R.W.; Russell, T.F.

1992-01-01

A finite-volume Eulerian-Lagrangian local adjoint method for solution of the advection-dispersion equation is developed and discussed. The method is mass conservative and can solve advection-dominated ground-water solute-transport problems accurately and efficiently. An integrated finite-difference approach is used in the method. A key component of the method is that the integral representing the mass-storage term is evaluated numerically at the current time level. Integration points, and the mass associated with these points, are then forward tracked up to the next time level. The number of integration points required to reach a specified level of accuracy is problem dependent and increases as the sharpness of the simulated solute front increases. Integration points are generally equally spaced within each grid cell. For problems involving variable coefficients it has been found to be advantageous to include additional integration points at strategic locations in each well. These locations are determined by backtracking. Forward tracking of boundary fluxes by the method alleviates problems that are encountered in the backtracking approaches of most characteristic methods. A test problem is used to illustrate that the new method offers substantial advantages over other numerical methods for a wide range of problems.

Improving energy efficiency in handheld biometric applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoyle, David C.; Gale, John W.; Schultz, Robert C.; Rakvic, Ryan N.; Ives, Robert W.

2012-06-01

With improved smartphone and tablet technology, it is becoming increasingly feasible to implement powerful biometric recognition algorithms on portable devices. Typical iris recognition algorithms, such as Ridge Energy Direction (RED), utilize two-dimensional convolution in their implementation. This paper explores the energy consumption implications of 12 different methods of implementing two-dimensional convolution on a portable device. Typically, convolution is implemented using floating point operations. If a given algorithm implemented integer convolution vice floating point convolution, it could drastically reduce the energy consumed by the processor. The 12 methods compared include 4 major categories: Integer C, Integer Java, Floating Point C, and Floating Point Java. Each major category is further divided into 3 implementations: variable size looped convolution, static size looped convolution, and unrolled looped convolution. All testing was performed using the HTC Thunderbolt with energy measured directly using a Tektronix TDS5104B Digital Phosphor oscilloscope. Results indicate that energy savings as high as 75% are possible by using Integer C versus Floating Point C. Considering the relative proportion of processing time that convolution is responsible for in a typical algorithm, the savings in energy would likely result in significantly greater time between battery charges.

Getting to the point: Rapid point selection and variable density InSAR time series for urban deformation monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spaans, K.; Hooper, A. J.

2017-12-01

The short revisit time and high data acquisition rates of current satellites have resulted in increased interest in the development of deformation monitoring and rapid disaster response capability, using InSAR. Fast, efficient data processing methodologies are required to deliver the timely results necessary for this, and also to limit computing resources required to process the large quantities of data being acquired. Contrary to volcano or earthquake applications, urban monitoring requires high resolution processing, in order to differentiate movements between buildings, or between buildings and the surrounding land. Here we present Rapid time series InSAR (RapidSAR), a method that can efficiently update high resolution time series of interferograms, and demonstrate its effectiveness over urban areas. The RapidSAR method estimates the coherence of pixels on an interferogram-by-interferogram basis. This allows for rapid ingestion of newly acquired images without the need to reprocess the earlier acquired part of the time series. The coherence estimate is based on ensembles of neighbouring pixels with similar amplitude behaviour through time, which are identified on an initial set of interferograms, and need be re-evaluated only occasionally. By taking into account scattering properties of points during coherence estimation, a high quality coherence estimate is achieved, allowing point selection at full resolution. The individual point selection maximizes the amount of information that can be extracted from each interferogram, as no selection compromise has to be reached between high and low coherence interferograms. In other words, points do not have to be coherent throughout the time series to contribute to the deformation time series. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method over urban areas in the UK. We show how the algorithm successfully extracts high density time series from full resolution Sentinel-1 interferograms, and distinguish clearly between buildings and surrounding vegetation or streets. The fact that new interferograms can be processed separately from the remainder of the time series helps manage the high data volumes, both in space and time, generated by current missions.

Prognostic grouping of metastatic prostate cancer using conventional pretreatment prognostic factors.

PubMed

Mikkola, Arto; Aro, Jussi; Rannikko, Sakari; Ruutu, Mirja

2009-01-01

To develop three prognostic groups for disease specific mortality based on the binary classified pretreatment variables age, haemoglobin concentration (Hb), erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), alkaline phosphatase (ALP), prostate-specific antigen (PSA), plasma testosterone and estradiol level in hormonally treated patients with metastatic prostate cancer (PCa). The present study comprised 200 Finnprostate 6 study patients, but data on all variables were not known for every patient. The patients were divided into three prognostic risk groups (Rgs) using the prognostically best set of pretreatment variables. The best set was found by backward stepwise selection and the effect of every excluded variable on the binary classification cut-off points of the remaining variables was checked and corrected when needed. The best group of variables was ALP, PSA, ESR and age. All data were known in 142 patients. Patients were given one risk point each for ALP > 180 U/l (normal value 60-275 U/l), PSA > 35 microg/l, ESR > 80 mm/h and age < 60 years. Three risk groups were formed: Rg-a (0-1 risk points), Rg-b (2 risk points) and Rg-c (3-4 risk points). The risk of death from PCa increased statistically significantly with advancing prognostic group. Patients with metastatic PCa can be divided into three statistically significantly different prognostic risk groups for PCa-specific mortality by using the binary classified pretreatment variables ALP, PSA, ESR and age.

Segmented Poincaré plot analysis for risk stratification in patients with dilated cardiomyopathy.

PubMed

Voss, A; Fischer, C; Schroeder, R; Figulla, H R; Goernig, M

2010-01-01

The prognostic value of heart rate variability in patients with dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) is limited and does not contribute to risk stratification although the dynamics of ventricular repolarization differs considerably between DCM patients and healthy subjects. Neither linear nor nonlinear methods of heart rate variability analysis could discriminate between patients at high and low risk for sudden cardiac death. The aim of this study was to analyze the suitability of the new developed segmented Poincaré plot analysis (SPPA) to enhance risk stratification in DCM. In contrast to the usual applied Poincaré plot analysis the SPPA retains nonlinear features from investigated beat-to-beat interval time series. Main features of SPPA are the rotation of cloud of points and their succeeded variability depended segmentation. Significant row and column probabilities were calculated from the segments and led to discrimination (up to p<0.005) between low and high risk in DCM patients. For the first time an index from Poincaré plot analysis of heart rate variability was able to contribute to risk stratification in patients suffering from DCM.

The Stochastic X-Ray Variability of the Accreting Millisecond Pulsar MAXI J0911-655

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bult, Peter

2017-01-01

In this work, I report on the stochastic X-ray variability of the 340 hertz accreting millisecond pulsar MAXI J0911-655. Analyzing pointed observations of the XMM-Newton and NuSTAR observatories, I find that the source shows broad band-limited stochastic variability in the 0.01-10 hertz range with a total fractional variability of approximately 24 percent root mean square timing residuals in the 0.4 to 3 kiloelectronvolt energy band that increases to approximately 40 percent root mean square timing residuals in the 3 to 10 kiloelectronvolt band. Additionally, a pair of harmonically related quasi-periodic oscillations (QPOs) are discovered. The fundamental frequency of this harmonic pair is observed between frequencies of 62 and 146 megahertz. Like the band-limited noise, the amplitudes of the QPOs show a steep increase as a function of energy; this suggests that they share a similar origin, likely the inner accretion flow. Based on their energy dependence and frequency relation with respect to the noise terms, the QPOs are identified as low-frequency oscillations and discussed in terms of the Lense-Thirring precession model.

Reliability of Fitness Tests Using Methods and Time Periods Common in Sport and Occupational Management

PubMed Central

Burnstein, Bryan D.; Steele, Russell J.; Shrier, Ian

2011-01-01

Context: Fitness testing is used frequently in many areas of physical activity, but the reliability of these measurements under real-world, practical conditions is unknown. Objective: To evaluate the reliability of specific fitness tests using the methods and time periods used in the context of real-world sport and occupational management. Design: Cohort study. Setting: Eighteen different Cirque du Soleil shows. Patients or Other Participants: Cirque du Soleil physical performers who completed 4 consecutive tests (6-month intervals) and were free of injury or illness at each session (n = 238 of 701 physical performers). Intervention(s): Performers completed 6 fitness tests on each assessment date: dynamic balance, Harvard step test, handgrip, vertical jump, pull-ups, and 60-second jump test. Main Outcome Measure(s): We calculated the intraclass coefficient (ICC) and limits of agreement between baseline and each time point and the ICC over all 4 time points combined. Results: Reliability was acceptable (ICC > 0.6) over an 18-month time period for all pairwise comparisons and all time points together for the handgrip, vertical jump, and pull-up assessments. The Harvard step test and 60-second jump test had poor reliability (ICC < 0.6) between baseline and other time points. When we excluded the baseline data and calculated the ICC for 6-month, 12-month, and 18-month time points, both the Harvard step test and 60-second jump test demonstrated acceptable reliability. Dynamic balance was unreliable in all contexts. Limit-of-agreement analysis demonstrated considerable intraindividual variability for some tests and a learning effect by administrators on others. Conclusions: Five of the 6 tests in this battery had acceptable reliability over an 18-month time frame, but the values for certain individuals may vary considerably from time to time for some tests. Specific tests may require a learning period for administrators. PMID:22488138

Point-of-care blood gases, electrolytes, chemistries, hemoglobin, and hematocrit measurement in venous samples from pet rabbits.

PubMed

Selleri, Paolo; Di Girolamo, Nicola

2014-01-01

Point-of-care testing is an attractive option in rabbit medicine, because it permits rapid analysis of a panel of electrolytes, chemistries, blood gases, hemoglobin, and hematocrit, requiring only 65 μL of blood. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the performance of a portable clinical analyzer for measurement of pH, partial pressure of CO2, Na, chloride, potassium, blood urea nitrogen, glucose, hematocrit, and hemoglobin in healthy and diseased rabbits. Blood samples obtained from 30 pet rabbits were analyzed immediately after collection by the portable clinical analyzer (PCA) and immediately thereafter (time <20 sec) by a reference analyzer. Bland-Altman plots and Passing-Bablok regression analysis were used to compare the results. Limits of agreement were wide for all the variables studied, with the exception of pH. Most variables presented significant proportional and/or constant bias. The current study provides sufficient evidence that the PCA presents reliability for pH, although its low agreement with a reference analyzer for the other variables does not support their interchangeability. Limits of agreement provided for each variable allow researchers to evaluate if the PCA is reliable enough for their scope. To the authors' knowledge, the present is the first report evaluating a PCA in the rabbit.

Learning an intrinsic-variable preserving manifold for dynamic visual tracking.

PubMed

Qiao, Hong; Zhang, Peng; Zhang, Bo; Zheng, Suiwu

2010-06-01

Manifold learning is a hot topic in the field of computer science, particularly since nonlinear dimensionality reduction based on manifold learning was proposed in Science in 2000. The work has achieved great success. The main purpose of current manifold-learning approaches is to search for independent intrinsic variables underlying high dimensional inputs which lie on a low dimensional manifold. In this paper, a new manifold is built up in the training step of the process, on which the input training samples are set to be close to each other if the values of their intrinsic variables are close to each other. Then, the process of dimensionality reduction is transformed into a procedure of preserving the continuity of the intrinsic variables. By utilizing the new manifold, the dynamic tracking of a human who can move and rotate freely is achieved. From the theoretical point of view, it is the first approach to transfer the manifold-learning framework to dynamic tracking. From the application point of view, a new and low dimensional feature for visual tracking is obtained and successfully applied to the real-time tracking of a free-moving object from a dynamic vision system. Experimental results from a dynamic tracking system which is mounted on a dynamic robot validate the effectiveness of the new algorithm.

Resilience, rapid transitions and regime shifts: fingerprinting the responses of Lake Żabińskie (NE Poland) to climate variability and human disturbance since 1000 AD

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tylmann, Wojciech; Hernández-Almeida, Iván; Grosjean, Martin; José Gómez Navarro, Juan; Larocque-Tobler, Isabelle; Bonk, Alicja; Enters, Dirk; Ustrzycka, Alicja; Piotrowska, Natalia; Przybylak, Rajmund; Wacnik, Agnieszka; Witak, Małgorzata

2016-04-01

Rapid ecosystem transitions and adverse effects on ecosystem services as responses to combined climate and human impacts are of major concern. Yet few quantitative observational data exist, particularly for ecosystems that have a long history of human intervention. Here, we combine quantitative summer and winter climate reconstructions, climate model simulations and proxies for three major environmental pressures (land use, nutrients and erosion) to explore the system dynamics, resilience, and the role of disturbance regimes in varved eutrophic Lake Żabińskie since AD 1000. Comparison between regional and global climate simulations and quantitative climate reconstructions indicate that proxy data capture noticeably natural forced climate variability, while internal variability appears as the dominant source of climate variability in the climate model simulations during most parts of the last millennium. Using different multivariate analyses and change point detection techniques, we identify ecosystem changes through time and shifts between rather stable states and highly variable ones, as expressed by the proxies for land-use, erosion and productivity in the lake. Prior to AD 1600, the lake ecosystem was characterized by a high stability and resilience against considerable observed natural climate variability. In contrast, lake-ecosystem conditions started to fluctuate at high frequency across a broad range of states after AD 1600. The period AD 1748-1868 represents the phase with the strongest human disturbance of the ecosystem. Analyses of the frequency of change points in the multi-proxy dataset suggests that the last 400 years were highly variable and flickering with increasing vulnerability of the ecosystem to the combined effects of climate variability and anthropogenic disturbances. This led to significant rapid ecosystem transformations.

Statistical methods and regression analysis of stratospheric ozone and meteorological variables in Isfahan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hassanzadeh, S.; Hosseinibalam, F.; Omidvari, M.

2008-04-01

Data of seven meteorological variables (relative humidity, wet temperature, dry temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, ground temperature and sun radiation time) and ozone values have been used for statistical analysis. Meteorological variables and ozone values were analyzed using both multiple linear regression and principal component methods. Data for the period 1999-2004 are analyzed jointly using both methods. For all periods, temperature dependent variables were highly correlated, but were all negatively correlated with relative humidity. Multiple regression analysis was used to fit the meteorological variables using the meteorological variables as predictors. A variable selection method based on high loading of varimax rotated principal components was used to obtain subsets of the predictor variables to be included in the linear regression model of the meteorological variables. In 1999, 2001 and 2002 one of the meteorological variables was weakly influenced predominantly by the ozone concentrations. However, the model did not predict that the meteorological variables for the year 2000 were not influenced predominantly by the ozone concentrations that point to variation in sun radiation. This could be due to other factors that were not explicitly considered in this study.

Exploring the Variability of the Fermi LAT Blazar Population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macomb, Daryl J.; Shrader, C. R.

2014-01-01

The flux variability of the approximately 2000 point sources cataloged by the Fermi Gamma-Ray Space Telescope provide important clues to population characteristics. This is particularly true of the more than 1100 source that are likely AGN. By characterizing the intrinsic flux variability and distinguishing this variability from flaring behavior, we can better address questions of flare amplitudes, durations, recurrence times, and temporal profiles. A better understanding of the responsible physical environments, such as the scale and location of jet structures responsible for the high-energy emission, may emerge from such studies. Assessing these characteristics as a function of blazar sub-class is a further goal in order to address questions about the fundamentals of blazar AGN physics. Here we report on progress made in categorizing blazar flare behavior, and correlate these behaviors with blazar sub-type and other source parameters.

Empirical mode decomposition and long-range correlation analysis of sunspot time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Yu; Leung, Yee

2010-12-01

Sunspots, which are the best known and most variable features of the solar surface, affect our planet in many ways. The number of sunspots during a period of time is highly variable and arouses strong research interest. When multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) is employed to study the fractal properties and long-range correlation of the sunspot series, some spurious crossover points might appear because of the periodic and quasi-periodic trends in the series. However many cycles of solar activities can be reflected by the sunspot time series. The 11-year cycle is perhaps the most famous cycle of the sunspot activity. These cycles pose problems for the investigation of the scaling behavior of sunspot time series. Using different methods to handle the 11-year cycle generally creates totally different results. Using MF-DFA, Movahed and co-workers employed Fourier truncation to deal with the 11-year cycle and found that the series is long-range anti-correlated with a Hurst exponent, H, of about 0.12. However, Hu and co-workers proposed an adaptive detrending method for the MF-DFA and discovered long-range correlation characterized by H≈0.74. In an attempt to get to the bottom of the problem in the present paper, empirical mode decomposition (EMD), a data-driven adaptive method, is applied to first extract the components with different dominant frequencies. MF-DFA is then employed to study the long-range correlation of the sunspot time series under the influence of these components. On removing the effects of these periods, the natural long-range correlation of the sunspot time series can be revealed. With the removal of the 11-year cycle, a crossover point located at around 60 months is discovered to be a reasonable point separating two different time scale ranges, H≈0.72 and H≈1.49. And on removing all cycles longer than 11 years, we have H≈0.69 and H≈0.28. The three cycle-removing methods—Fourier truncation, adaptive detrending and the proposed EMD-based method—are further compared, and possible reasons for the different results are given. Two numerical experiments are designed for quantitatively evaluating the performances of these three methods in removing periodic trends with inexact/exact cycles and in detecting the possible crossover points.

Explaining Leibniz equivalence as difference of non-inertial appearances: Dis-solution of the Hole Argument and physical individuation of point-events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lusanna, Luca; Pauri, Massimo

"The last remnant of physical objectivity of space-time" is disclosed in the case of a continuous family of spatially non-compact models of general relativity (GR). The physical individuation of point-events is furnished by the autonomous degrees of freedom of the gravitational field (viz., the Dirac observables) which represent-as it were-the ontic part of the metric field. The physical role of the epistemic part (viz. the gauge variables) is likewise clarified as embodying the unavoidable non-inertial aspects of GR. At the end the philosophical import of the Hole Argument is substantially weakened and in fact the Argument itself dissolved, while a specific four-dimensional holistic and structuralist view of space-time (called point-structuralism) emerges, including elements common to the tradition of both substantivalism and relationism. The observables of our models undergo real temporal change: this gives new evidence to the fact that statements like the frozen-time character of evolution, as other ontological claims about GR, are model dependent.

Multiresolution analysis of the spatiotemporal variability in global radiation observed by a dense network of 99 pyranometers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lakshmi Madhavan, Bomidi; Deneke, Hartwig; Witthuhn, Jonas; Macke, Andreas

2017-03-01

The time series of global radiation observed by a dense network of 99 autonomous pyranometers during the HOPE campaign around Jülich, Germany, are investigated with a multiresolution analysis based on the maximum overlap discrete wavelet transform and the Haar wavelet. For different sky conditions, typical wavelet power spectra are calculated to quantify the timescale dependence of variability in global transmittance. Distinctly higher variability is observed at all frequencies in the power spectra of global transmittance under broken-cloud conditions compared to clear, cirrus, or overcast skies. The spatial autocorrelation function including its frequency dependence is determined to quantify the degree of similarity of two time series measurements as a function of their spatial separation. Distances ranging from 100 m to 10 km are considered, and a rapid decrease of the autocorrelation function is found with increasing frequency and distance. For frequencies above 1/3 min-1 and points separated by more than 1 km, variations in transmittance become completely uncorrelated. A method is introduced to estimate the deviation between a point measurement and a spatially averaged value for a surrounding domain, which takes into account domain size and averaging period, and is used to explore the representativeness of a single pyranometer observation for its surrounding region. Two distinct mechanisms are identified, which limit the representativeness; on the one hand, spatial averaging reduces variability and thus modifies the shape of the power spectrum. On the other hand, the correlation of variations of the spatially averaged field and a point measurement decreases rapidly with increasing temporal frequency. For a grid box of 10 km × 10 km and averaging periods of 1.5-3 h, the deviation of global transmittance between a point measurement and an area-averaged value depends on the prevailing sky conditions: 2.8 (clear), 1.8 (cirrus), 1.5 (overcast), and 4.2 % (broken clouds). The solar global radiation observed at a single station is found to deviate from the spatial average by as much as 14-23 (clear), 8-26 (cirrus), 4-23 (overcast), and 31-79 W m-2 (broken clouds) from domain averages ranging from 1 km × 1 km to 10 km × 10 km in area.

Instrumental variables estimation of exposure effects on a time-to-event endpoint using structural cumulative survival models.

PubMed

Martinussen, Torben; Vansteelandt, Stijn; Tchetgen Tchetgen, Eric J; Zucker, David M

2017-12-01

The use of instrumental variables for estimating the effect of an exposure on an outcome is popular in econometrics, and increasingly so in epidemiology. This increasing popularity may be attributed to the natural occurrence of instrumental variables in observational studies that incorporate elements of randomization, either by design or by nature (e.g., random inheritance of genes). Instrumental variables estimation of exposure effects is well established for continuous outcomes and to some extent for binary outcomes. It is, however, largely lacking for time-to-event outcomes because of complications due to censoring and survivorship bias. In this article, we make a novel proposal under a class of structural cumulative survival models which parameterize time-varying effects of a point exposure directly on the scale of the survival function; these models are essentially equivalent with a semi-parametric variant of the instrumental variables additive hazards model. We propose a class of recursive instrumental variable estimators for these exposure effects, and derive their large sample properties along with inferential tools. We examine the performance of the proposed method in simulation studies and illustrate it in a Mendelian randomization study to evaluate the effect of diabetes on mortality using data from the Health and Retirement Study. We further use the proposed method to investigate potential benefit from breast cancer screening on subsequent breast cancer mortality based on the HIP-study. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

Determining Directional Dependency in Causal Associations

PubMed Central

Pornprasertmanit, Sunthud; Little, Todd D.

2014-01-01

Directional dependency is a method to determine the likely causal direction of effect between two variables. This article aims to critique and improve upon the use of directional dependency as a technique to infer causal associations. We comment on several issues raised by von Eye and DeShon (2012), including: encouraging the use of the signs of skewness and excessive kurtosis of both variables, discouraging the use of D’Agostino’s K2, and encouraging the use of directional dependency to compare variables only within time points. We offer improved steps for determining directional dependency that fix the problems we note. Next, we discuss how to integrate directional dependency into longitudinal data analysis with two variables. We also examine the accuracy of directional dependency evaluations when several regression assumptions are violated. Directional dependency can suggest the direction of a relation if (a) the regression error in population is normal, (b) an unobserved explanatory variable correlates with any variables equal to or less than .2, (c) a curvilinear relation between both variables is not strong (standardized regression coefficient ≤ .2), (d) there are no bivariate outliers, and (e) both variables are continuous. PMID:24683282

Distribution of Reynolds stress carried by mesoscale variability in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Thomas J.; Stewart, Robert H.; Shum, C. K.; Tapley, Byron D.

1992-01-01

Satellite altimeter data collected by the Geosat Exact Repeat Mission were used to investigate turbulent stress resulting from the variability of surface geostrophic currents in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. The altimeter measured sea level along the subsatellite track. The variability of the along-track slope of sea level is directly proportional to the variability of surface geostrophic currents in the cross-track direction. Because the grid of crossover points is dense at high latitudes, the satellite data could be used for mapping the temporal and spatial variability of the current. Two and a half years of data were used to compute the statistical structure of the variability. The statistics included the probability distribution functions for each component of the current, the time-lagged autocorrelation functions of the variability, and the Reynolds stress produced by the variability. The results demonstrate that stress is correlated with bathymetry. In some areas the distribution of negative stress indicate that eddies contribute to an acceleration of the mean flow, strengthening the hypothesis that baroclinic instability makes important contributions to strong oceanic currents.

Optimization of Supercritical CO2 Extraction of Fish Oil from Viscera of African Catfish (Clarias gariepinus)

PubMed Central

Sarker, Mohamed Zaidul Islam; Selamat, Jinap; Habib, Abu Sayem Md. Ahsan; Ferdosh, Sahena; Akanda, Mohamed Jahurul Haque; Jaffri, Juliana Mohamed

2012-01-01

Fish oil was extracted from the viscera of African Catfish using supercritical carbon dioxide (SC-CO2). A Central Composite Design of Response Surface methodology (RSM) was employed to optimize the SC-CO2 extraction parameters. The oil yield (Y) as response variable was executed against the four independent variables, namely pressure, temperature, flow rate and soaking time. The oil yield varied with the linear, quadratic and interaction of pressure, temperature, flow rate and soaking time. Optimum points were observed within the variables of temperature from 35 °C to 80 °C, pressure from 10 MPa to 40 MPa, flow rate from 1 mL/min to 3 mL/min and soaking time from 1 h to 4 h. However, the extraction parameters were found to be optimized at temperature 57.5 °C, pressure 40 MPa, flow rate 2.0 mL/min and soaking time 2.5 h. At this optimized condition, the highest oil yields were found to be 67.0% (g oil/100 g sample on dry basis) in the viscera of catfish which was reasonable to the yields of 78.0% extracted using the Soxhlet method. PMID:23109854

Improving Gastric Cancer Outcome Prediction Using Single Time-Point Artificial Neural Network Models

PubMed Central

Nilsaz-Dezfouli, Hamid; Abu-Bakar, Mohd Rizam; Arasan, Jayanthi; Adam, Mohd Bakri; Pourhoseingholi, Mohamad Amin

2017-01-01

In cancer studies, the prediction of cancer outcome based on a set of prognostic variables has been a long-standing topic of interest. Current statistical methods for survival analysis offer the possibility of modelling cancer survivability but require unrealistic assumptions about the survival time distribution or proportionality of hazard. Therefore, attention must be paid in developing nonlinear models with less restrictive assumptions. Artificial neural network (ANN) models are primarily useful in prediction when nonlinear approaches are required to sift through the plethora of available information. The applications of ANN models for prognostic and diagnostic classification in medicine have attracted a lot of interest. The applications of ANN models in modelling the survival of patients with gastric cancer have been discussed in some studies without completely considering the censored data. This study proposes an ANN model for predicting gastric cancer survivability, considering the censored data. Five separate single time-point ANN models were developed to predict the outcome of patients after 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 years. The performance of ANN model in predicting the probabilities of death is consistently high for all time points according to the accuracy and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. PMID:28469384

The Galileo scan platform pointing control system - A modern control theoretic viewpoint

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sevaston, G. E.; Macala, G. A.; Man, G. K.

1985-01-01

The current Galileo scan platform pointing control system (SPPCS) is described, and ways in which modern control concepts could serve to enhance it are considered. Of particular interest are: the multi-variable design model and overall control system architecture, command input filtering, feedback compensator and command input design, stability robustness constraint for both continuous time control systems and for sampled data control systems, and digital implementation of the control system. The proposed approach leads to the design of a system that is similar to current Galileo SPPCS configuration, but promises to be more systematic.

Reproducibility of Interferon Gamma (IFN-γ) Release Assays. A Systematic Review

PubMed Central

Tagmouti, Saloua; Slater, Madeline; Benedetti, Andrea; Kik, Sandra V.; Banaei, Niaz; Cattamanchi, Adithya; Metcalfe, John; Dowdy, David; van Zyl Smit, Richard; Dendukuri, Nandini

2014-01-01

Rationale: Interferon gamma (IFN-γ) release assays for latent tuberculosis infection result in a larger-than-expected number of conversions and reversions in occupational screening programs, and reproducibility of test results is a concern. Objectives: Knowledge of the relative contribution and extent of the individual sources of variability (immunological, preanalytical, or analytical) could help optimize testing protocols. Methods: We performed a systematic review of studies published by October 2013 on all potential sources of variability of commercial IFN-γ release assays (QuantiFERON-TB Gold In-Tube and T-SPOT.TB). The included studies assessed test variability under identical conditions and under different conditions (the latter both overall and stratified by individual sources of variability). Linear mixed effects models were used to estimate within-subject SD. Measurements and Main Results: We identified a total of 26 articles, including 7 studies analyzing variability under the same conditions, 10 studies analyzing variability with repeat testing over time under different conditions, and 19 studies reporting individual sources of variability. Most data were on QuantiFERON (only three studies on T-SPOT.TB). A considerable number of conversions and reversions were seen around the manufacturer-recommended cut-point. The estimated range of variability of IFN-γ response in QuantiFERON under identical conditions was ±0.47 IU/ml (coefficient of variation, 13%) and ±0.26 IU/ml (30%) for individuals with an initial IFN-γ response in the borderline range (0.25–0.80 IU/ml). The estimated range of variability in noncontrolled settings was substantially larger (±1.4 IU/ml; 60%). Blood volume inoculated into QuantiFERON tubes and preanalytic delay were identified as key sources of variability. Conclusions: This systematic review shows substantial variability with repeat IFN-γ release assays testing even under identical conditions, suggesting that reversions and conversions around the existing cut-point should be interpreted with caution. PMID:25188809

Passenger comfort response times as a function of aircraft motion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rinalducci, E. J.

1975-01-01

The relationship between a passenger's response time of changes in level of comfort experienced as a function of aircraft motion was examined. The aircraft used in this investigation was capable of providing a wide range of vertical and transverse accelerations by means of direct lift flap control surfaces and side force generator surfaces in addition to normal control surfaces. Response times to changes in comfort were recorded along with the passenger's rating of comfort on a five point scale. In addition, a number of aircraft motion variables including vertical and transverse accelerations were also recorded. Results indicate some relationship between human comfort response times to reaction time data.

Multivariate random regression analysis for body weight and main morphological traits in genetically improved farmed tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus).

PubMed

He, Jie; Zhao, Yunfeng; Zhao, Jingli; Gao, Jin; Han, Dandan; Xu, Pao; Yang, Runqing

2017-11-02

Because of their high economic importance, growth traits in fish are under continuous improvement. For growth traits that are recorded at multiple time-points in life, the use of univariate and multivariate animal models is limited because of the variable and irregular timing of these measures. Thus, the univariate random regression model (RRM) was introduced for the genetic analysis of dynamic growth traits in fish breeding. We used a multivariate random regression model (MRRM) to analyze genetic changes in growth traits recorded at multiple time-point of genetically-improved farmed tilapia. Legendre polynomials of different orders were applied to characterize the influences of fixed and random effects on growth trajectories. The final MRRM was determined by optimizing the univariate RRM for the analyzed traits separately via penalizing adaptively the likelihood statistical criterion, which is superior to both the Akaike information criterion and the Bayesian information criterion. In the selected MRRM, the additive genetic effects were modeled by Legendre polynomials of three orders for body weight (BWE) and body length (BL) and of two orders for body depth (BD). By using the covariance functions of the MRRM, estimated heritabilities were between 0.086 and 0.628 for BWE, 0.155 and 0.556 for BL, and 0.056 and 0.607 for BD. Only heritabilities for BD measured from 60 to 140 days of age were consistently higher than those estimated by the univariate RRM. All genetic correlations between growth time-points exceeded 0.5 for either single or pairwise time-points. Moreover, correlations between early and late growth time-points were lower. Thus, for phenotypes that are measured repeatedly in aquaculture, an MRRM can enhance the efficiency of the comprehensive selection for BWE and the main morphological traits.

Change Points in the Population Trends of Aerial-Insectivorous Birds in North America: Synchronized in Time across Species and Regions.

PubMed

Smith, Adam C; Hudson, Marie-Anne R; Downes, Constance M; Francis, Charles M

2015-01-01

North American populations of aerial insectivorous birds are in steep decline. Aerial insectivores (AI) are a group of bird species that feed almost exclusively on insects in flight, and include swallows, swifts, nightjars, and flycatchers. The causes of the declines are not well understood. Indeed, it is not clear when the declines began, or whether the declines are shared across all species in the group (e.g., caused by changes in flying insect populations) or specific to each species (e.g., caused by changes in species' breeding habitat). A recent study suggested that population trends of aerial insectivores changed for the worse in the 1980s. If there was such a change point in trends of the group, understanding its timing and geographic pattern could help identify potential causes of the decline. We used a hierarchical Bayesian, penalized regression spline, change point model to estimate group-level change points in the trends of 22 species of AI, across 153 geographic strata of North America. We found evidence for group-level change points in 85% of the strata. Change points for flycatchers (FC) were distinct from those for swallows, swifts and nightjars (SSN) across North America, except in the Northeast, where all AI shared the same group-level change points. During the 1980s, there was a negative change point across most of North America, in the trends of SSN. For FC, the group-level change points were more geographically variable, and in many regions there were two: a positive change point followed by a negative change point. This group-level synchrony in AI population trends is likely evidence of a response to a common environmental factor(s) with similar effects on many species across broad spatial extents. The timing and geographic patterns of the change points that we identify here should provide a spring-board for research into the causes behind aerial insectivore declines.

Change Points in the Population Trends of Aerial-Insectivorous Birds in North America: Synchronized in Time across Species and Regions

PubMed Central

Smith, Adam C.; Hudson, Marie-Anne R.; Downes, Constance M.; Francis, Charles M.

2015-01-01

North American populations of aerial insectivorous birds are in steep decline. Aerial insectivores (AI) are a group of bird species that feed almost exclusively on insects in flight, and include swallows, swifts, nightjars, and flycatchers. The causes of the declines are not well understood. Indeed, it is not clear when the declines began, or whether the declines are shared across all species in the group (e.g., caused by changes in flying insect populations) or specific to each species (e.g., caused by changes in species’ breeding habitat). A recent study suggested that population trends of aerial insectivores changed for the worse in the 1980s. If there was such a change point in trends of the group, understanding its timing and geographic pattern could help identify potential causes of the decline. We used a hierarchical Bayesian, penalized regression spline, change point model to estimate group-level change points in the trends of 22 species of AI, across 153 geographic strata of North America. We found evidence for group-level change points in 85% of the strata. Change points for flycatchers (FC) were distinct from those for swallows, swifts and nightjars (SSN) across North America, except in the Northeast, where all AI shared the same group-level change points. During the 1980s, there was a negative change point across most of North America, in the trends of SSN. For FC, the group-level change points were more geographically variable, and in many regions there were two: a positive change point followed by a negative change point. This group-level synchrony in AI population trends is likely evidence of a response to a common environmental factor(s) with similar effects on many species across broad spatial extents. The timing and geographic patterns of the change points that we identify here should provide a spring-board for research into the causes behind aerial insectivore declines. PMID:26147572

Contact geometry and quantum mechanics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herczeg, Gabriel; Waldron, Andrew

2018-06-01

We present a generally covariant approach to quantum mechanics in which generalized positions, momenta and time variables are treated as coordinates on a fundamental "phase-spacetime". We show that this covariant starting point makes quantization into a purely geometric flatness condition. This makes quantum mechanics purely geometric, and possibly even topological. Our approach is especially useful for time-dependent problems and systems subject to ambiguities in choices of clock or observer. As a byproduct, we give a derivation and generalization of the Wigner functions of standard quantum mechanics.

Satellite attitude prediction by multiple time scales method

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, Y. C.; Ramnath, R.

1975-01-01

An investigation is made of the problem of predicting the attitude of satellites under the influence of external disturbing torques. The attitude dynamics are first expressed in a perturbation formulation which is then solved by the multiple scales approach. The independent variable, time, is extended into new scales, fast, slow, etc., and the integration is carried out separately in the new variables. The theory is applied to two different satellite configurations, rigid body and dual spin, each of which may have an asymmetric mass distribution. The disturbing torques considered are gravity gradient and geomagnetic. Finally, as multiple time scales approach separates slow and fast behaviors of satellite attitude motion, this property is used for the design of an attitude control device. A nutation damping control loop, using the geomagnetic torque for an earth pointing dual spin satellite, is designed in terms of the slow equation.

Organic-matter loading determines regime shifts and alternative states in an aquatic ecosystem

PubMed Central

Sirota, Jennie; Baiser, Benjamin; Gotelli, Nicholas J.; Ellison, Aaron M.

2013-01-01

Slow changes in underlying state variables can lead to “tipping points,” rapid transitions between alternative states (“regime shifts”) in a wide range of complex systems. Tipping points and regime shifts routinely are documented retrospectively in long time series of observational data. Experimental induction of tipping points and regime shifts is rare, but could lead to new methods for detecting impending tipping points and forestalling regime shifts. By using controlled additions of detrital organic matter (dried, ground arthropod prey), we experimentally induced a shift from aerobic to anaerobic states in a miniature aquatic ecosystem: the self-contained pools that form in leaves of the carnivorous northern pitcher plant, Sarracenia purpurea. In unfed controls, the concentration of dissolved oxygen ([O2]) in all replicates exhibited regular diurnal cycles associated with daytime photosynthesis and nocturnal plant respiration. In low prey-addition treatments, the regular diurnal cycles of [O2] were disrupted, but a regime shift was not detected. In high prey-addition treatments, the variance of the [O2] time series increased until the system tipped from an aerobic to an anaerobic state. In these treatments, replicate [O2] time series predictably crossed a tipping point at ∼45 h as [O2] was decoupled from diurnal cycles of photosynthesis and respiration. Increasing organic-matter loading led to predictable changes in [O2] dynamics, with high loading consistently driving the system past a well-defined tipping point. The Sarracenia microecosystem functions as a tractable experimental system in which to explore the forecasting and management of tipping points and alternative regimes. PMID:23613583

Organic-matter loading determines regime shifts and alternative states in an aquatic ecosystem.

PubMed

Sirota, Jennie; Baiser, Benjamin; Gotelli, Nicholas J; Ellison, Aaron M

2013-05-07

Slow changes in underlying state variables can lead to "tipping points," rapid transitions between alternative states ("regime shifts") in a wide range of complex systems. Tipping points and regime shifts routinely are documented retrospectively in long time series of observational data. Experimental induction of tipping points and regime shifts is rare, but could lead to new methods for detecting impending tipping points and forestalling regime shifts. By using controlled additions of detrital organic matter (dried, ground arthropod prey), we experimentally induced a shift from aerobic to anaerobic states in a miniature aquatic ecosystem: the self-contained pools that form in leaves of the carnivorous northern pitcher plant, Sarracenia purpurea. In unfed controls, the concentration of dissolved oxygen ([O2]) in all replicates exhibited regular diurnal cycles associated with daytime photosynthesis and nocturnal plant respiration. In low prey-addition treatments, the regular diurnal cycles of [O2] were disrupted, but a regime shift was not detected. In high prey-addition treatments, the variance of the [O2] time series increased until the system tipped from an aerobic to an anaerobic state. In these treatments, replicate [O2] time series predictably crossed a tipping point at ~45 h as [O2] was decoupled from diurnal cycles of photosynthesis and respiration. Increasing organic-matter loading led to predictable changes in [O2] dynamics, with high loading consistently driving the system past a well-defined tipping point. The Sarracenia microecosystem functions as a tractable experimental system in which to explore the forecasting and management of tipping points and alternative regimes.

A new interpolation method for gridded extensive variables with application in Lagrangian transport and dispersion models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hittmeir, Sabine; Philipp, Anne; Seibert, Petra

2017-04-01

In discretised form, an extensive variable usually represents an integral over a 3-dimensional (x,y,z) grid cell. In the case of vertical fluxes, gridded values represent integrals over a horizontal (x,y) grid face. In meteorological models, fluxes (precipitation, turbulent fluxes, etc.) are usually written out as temporally integrated values, thus effectively forming 3D (x,y,t) integrals. Lagrangian transport models require interpolation of all relevant variables towards the location in 4D space of each of the computational particles. Trivial interpolation algorithms usually implicitly assume the integral value to be a point value valid at the grid centre. If the integral value would be reconstructed from the interpolated point values, it would in general not be correct. If nonlinear interpolation methods are used, non-negativity cannot easily be ensured. This problem became obvious with respect to the interpolation of precipitation for the calculation of wet deposition FLEXPART (http://flexpart.eu) which uses ECMWF model output or other gridded input data. The presently implemented method consists of a special preprocessing in the input preparation software and subsequent linear interpolation in the model. The interpolated values are positive but the criterion of cell-wise conservation of the integral property is violated; it is also not very accurate as it smoothes the field. A new interpolation algorithm was developed which introduces additional supporting grid points in each time interval with linear interpolation to be applied in FLEXPART later between them. It preserves the integral precipitation in each time interval, guarantees the continuity of the time series, and maintains non-negativity. The function values of the remapping algorithm at these subgrid points constitute the degrees of freedom which can be prescribed in various ways. Combining the advantages of different approaches leads to a final algorithm respecting all the required conditions. To improve the monotonicity behaviour we additionally derived a filter to restrict over- or undershooting. At the current stage, the algorithm is meant primarily for the temporal dimension. It can also be applied with operator-splitting to include the two horizontal dimensions. An extension to 2D appears feasible, while a fully 3D version would most likely not justify the effort compared to the operator-splitting approach.

Early sensory over-responsivity in toddlers with autism spectrum disorders as a predictor of family impairment and parenting stress.

PubMed

Ben-Sasson, A; Soto, T W; Martínez-Pedraza, F; Carter, A S

2013-08-01

Sensory over-responsivity (SOR) affects many individuals with autism spectrum disorders (ASD), often leading to stressful encounters during daily routines. This study describes the associations between early SOR symptoms and the longitudinal course of restrictions in family life activities and parenting stress across three time-points in families raising a child with ASD (n = 174). Covariates were child diagnostic severity, emotional problems, and maternal affective symptoms. At time 1 mean chronological age was 28.5 months. Children were administered the Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule (ADOS) and Mullen Scales of Early Learning (MSEL). Parents completed the Infant Toddler Sensory Profile (ITSP), Infant-Toddler Social Emotional Assessment (ITSEA), Beck Anxiety Index (BAI), and the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Inventory (CES-D) at time 1; and the Parenting Stress Index (PSI) and Family Life Impairment Scale (FLIS) at the three annual time-points. Latent Growth Curve Models indicated that higher SOR scores on the ITSP at time 1 were associated with higher initial levels of family life impairment and parenting stress and with a smaller magnitude of change over time. These associations were independent of severity of ADOS social-communication symptoms, MSEL composite score, ITSEA externalizing and anxiety symptoms, and maternal affective symptoms as measured by the BAI and CES-D. On average FLIS and PSI did not change over time, however, there was significant individual variability. Concurrently, SOR at time 1 explained 39-45% of the variance in family stress and impairment variables. An evaluation of SOR should be integrated into the assessment of toddlers with ASD considering their role in family life impairment and stress. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry © 2013 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

How Are They Now? Longer Term Effects of eCoaching through Online Bug-in-Ear Technology

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rock, Marcia L.; Schumacker, Randall E.; Gregg, Madeleine; Howard, Pamela W.; Gable, Robert A.; Zigmond, Naomi

2014-01-01

In this study, using mixed methods, we investigated the longer term effects of eCoaching through advanced online bug-in-ear (BIE) technology. Quantitative data on five dependent variables were extracted from 14 participants' electronically archived video files at three points in time--Spring 1 (i.e., baseline, which was the first semester of…

Results of a Two-Year Longitudinal Study of Beverage-Specific Alcohol Use among Adolescents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moore, Michele Johnson; Werch, Chudley

2007-01-01

This study explored beverage-specific alcohol consumption patterns among a sample of high school students over a two-year period. Four hundred fifty-five students completed the validated questionnaire at all three time points (2002, 2003, 2004). Variables of interest included five use measures (past year use, 30-day frequency, quantity, heavy use,…

Predicting Students' Skills in the Context of Scientific Inquiry with Cognitive, Motivational, and Sociodemographic Variables

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nehring, Andreas; Nowak, Kathrin H.; zu Belzen, Annette Upmeier; Tiemann, Rüdiger

2015-01-01

Research on predictors of achievement in science is often targeted on more traditional content-based assessments and single student characteristics. At the same time, the development of skills in the field of scientific inquiry constitutes a focal point of interest for science education. Against this background, the purpose of this study was to…

Impact of the Penalty Points System on Road Traffic Injuries in Spain: A Time–Series Study

PubMed Central

Novoa, Ana M.; Santamariña-Rubio, Elena; Marí-Dell'Olmo, Marc; Ferrando, Josep; Peiró, Rosana; Tobías, Aurelio; Zori, Pilar; Borrell, Carme

2010-01-01

Objectives. We assessed the effectiveness of the penalty points system (PPS) introduced in Spain in July 2006 in reducing traffic injuries. Methods. We performed an evaluation study with an interrupted time–series design. We stratified dependent variables—numbers of drivers involved in injury collisions and people injured in traffic collisions in Spain from 2000 to 2007 (police data)—by age, injury severity, type of road user, road type, and time of collision, and analyzed variables separately by gender. The explanatory variable (the PPS) compared the postintervention period (July 2006 to December 2007) with the preintervention period (January 2000 to June 2006). We used quasi-Poisson regression, controlling for time trend and seasonality. Results. Among men, we observed a significant risk reduction in the postintervention period for seriously injured drivers (relative risk [RR] = 0.89) and seriously injured people (RR = 0.89). The RRs among women were 0.91 (P = .095) and 0.88 (P < .05), respectively. Risk reduction was greater among male drivers, moped riders, and on urban roads. Conclusions. The PPS was associated with reduced numbers of drivers involved in injury collisions and people injured by traffic collisions in Spain. PMID:20864703

Predictors of early person reference development: maternal language input, attachment and neurodevelopmental markers.

PubMed

Lemche, Erwin; Joraschky, Peter; Klann-Delius, Gisela

2013-12-01

In a longitudinal natural language development study in Germany, the acquisition of verbal symbols for present persons, absent persons, inanimate things and the mother-toddler dyad was investigated. Following the notion that verbal referent use is more developed in ostensive contexts, symbolic play situations were coded for verbal person reference by means of noun and pronoun use. Depending on attachment classifications at twelve months of age, effects of attachment classification and maternal language input were studied up to 36 months in four time points. Hierarchical regression analyses revealed that, except for mother absence, maternal verbal referent input rates at 17 and 36 months were stronger predictors for all referent types than any of the attachment organizations, or any other social or biological predictor variable. Attachment effects accounted for up to 9.8% of unique variance proportions in the person reference variables. Perinatal and familial measures predicted person references dependent on reference type. The results of this investigation indicate that mother-reference, self-reference and thing-reference develop in similar quantities measured from the 17-month time point, but are dependent of attachment quality. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Multilevel regression analyses to investigate the relationship between two variables over time: examining the longitudinal association between intrusion and avoidance.

PubMed

Suvak, Michael K; Walling, Sherry M; Iverson, Katherine M; Taft, Casey T; Resick, Patricia A

2009-12-01

Multilevel modeling is a powerful and flexible framework for analyzing nested data structures (e.g., repeated measures or longitudinal designs). The authors illustrate a series of multilevel regression procedures that can be used to elucidate the nature of the relationship between two variables across time. The goal is to help trauma researchers become more aware of the utility of multilevel modeling as a tool for increasing the field's understanding of posttraumatic adaptation. These procedures are demonstrated by examining the relationship between two posttraumatic symptoms, intrusion and avoidance, across five assessment points in a sample of rape and robbery survivors (n = 286). Results revealed that changes in intrusion were highly correlated with changes in avoidance over the 18-month posttrauma period.

Mediator of moderators: temporal stability of intention and the intention-behavior relation.

PubMed

Sheeran, Paschal; Abraham, Charles

2003-02-01

Intention certainty, past behavior, self-schema, anticipated regret, and attitudinal versus normative control all have been found to moderate intention-behavior relations. It is argued that moderation occurs because these variables produce "strong" intentions. Stability of intention over time is a key index of intention strength. Consequently, it was hypothesized that temporal stability of intention would mediate moderation by these other moderators. Participants (N = 185) completed questionnaire measures of theory of planned behavior constructs and moderator variables at two time points and subsequently reported their exercise behavior. Findings showed that all of the moderators, including temporal stability, were associated with significant improvements in consistency between intention and behavior. Temporal stability also mediated the effects of the other moderators, supporting the study hypothesis. Copyright 2003 Society for Personality and Social Psychology, Inc.

Modeling Sea-Level Change using Errors-in-Variables Integrated Gaussian Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cahill, Niamh; Parnell, Andrew; Kemp, Andrew; Horton, Benjamin

2014-05-01

We perform Bayesian inference on historical and late Holocene (last 2000 years) rates of sea-level change. The data that form the input to our model are tide-gauge measurements and proxy reconstructions from cores of coastal sediment. To accurately estimate rates of sea-level change and reliably compare tide-gauge compilations with proxy reconstructions it is necessary to account for the uncertainties that characterize each dataset. Many previous studies used simple linear regression models (most commonly polynomial regression) resulting in overly precise rate estimates. The model we propose uses an integrated Gaussian process approach, where a Gaussian process prior is placed on the rate of sea-level change and the data itself is modeled as the integral of this rate process. The non-parametric Gaussian process model is known to be well suited to modeling time series data. The advantage of using an integrated Gaussian process is that it allows for the direct estimation of the derivative of a one dimensional curve. The derivative at a particular time point will be representative of the rate of sea level change at that time point. The tide gauge and proxy data are complicated by multiple sources of uncertainty, some of which arise as part of the data collection exercise. Most notably, the proxy reconstructions include temporal uncertainty from dating of the sediment core using techniques such as radiocarbon. As a result of this, the integrated Gaussian process model is set in an errors-in-variables (EIV) framework so as to take account of this temporal uncertainty. The data must be corrected for land-level change known as glacio-isostatic adjustment (GIA) as it is important to isolate the climate-related sea-level signal. The correction for GIA introduces covariance between individual age and sea level observations into the model. The proposed integrated Gaussian process model allows for the estimation of instantaneous rates of sea-level change and accounts for all available sources of uncertainty in tide-gauge and proxy-reconstruction data. Our response variable is sea level after correction for GIA. By embedding the integrated process in an errors-in-variables (EIV) framework, and removing the estimate of GIA, we can quantify rates with better estimates of uncertainty than previously possible. The model provides a flexible fit and enables us to estimate rates of change at any given time point, thus observing how rates have been evolving from the past to present day.

The quiet revolution: continuous glider monitoring at ocean 'choke' points as a key component of new cross-platform ocean observation systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heslop, E. E.; Tintore, J.; Ruiz, S.; Allen, J.; López-Jurado, J. L.

2014-12-01

A quiet revolution is taking place in ocean observations; in the last decade new multi-platform, integrated ocean observatories have been progressively implemented by forward looking countries with ocean borders of economic and strategic importance. These systems are designed to fill significant gaps in our knowledge of the ocean state and ocean variability, through long-term, science and society-led, ocean monitoring. These ocean observatories are now delivering results, not the headline results of a single issue experiment, but carefully and systematically improving our knowledge of ocean variability, and thereby, increasing model forecast skill and our ability to link physical processes to ecosystem response. Here we present the results from a 3-year quasi-continuous glider monitoring of a key circulation 'choke' point in the Western Mediterranean, undertaken by SOCIB (Balearic Islands Coastal Ocean Observing and Forecasting System). For the first time data from the high frequency glider sampling show variations in the transport volumes of water over timescales of days to weeks, as large as those previously only identifiable as seasonal or eddy driven. Although previous surveys noted high cruise-to-cruise variability, they were insufficient to show that in fact water volumes exchanged through this narrow 'choke' point fluctuate on 'weather' timescales. Using the glider data to leverage an 18-year record of ship missions, we define new seasonal cycles for the exchange of watermasses, challenging generally held assumptions. The pattern of the exchange is further simplified through the characterisation of 5 circulation modes and the defining of a new seasonal cycle for the interplay between mesoscale and basin scale dynamics. Restricted 'choke points' between our ocean basins are critical locations to monitor water transport variability, as they constrain the inter-basin exchange of heat, salt and nutrients. At the Ibiza Channel 'choke' point, the exchange of watermass is known to affect local ecosystems, including the spawning grounds of commercially important fish stocks, at a biodiversity hotspot. This new insight will be vital in improving our ocean model forecast skill and in the development of integrated ocean products for society.

The bias associated with amplicon sequencing does not affect the quantitative assessment of bacterial community dynamics.

PubMed

Ibarbalz, Federico M; Pérez, María Victoria; Figuerola, Eva L M; Erijman, Leonardo

2014-01-01

The performance of two sets of primers targeting variable regions of the 16S rRNA gene V1-V3 and V4 was compared in their ability to describe changes of bacterial diversity and temporal turnover in full-scale activated sludge. Duplicate sets of high-throughput amplicon sequencing data of the two 16S rRNA regions shared a collection of core taxa that were observed across a series of twelve monthly samples, although the relative abundance of each taxon was substantially different between regions. A case in point was the changes in the relative abundance of filamentous bacteria Thiothrix, which caused a large effect on diversity indices, but only in the V1-V3 data set. Yet the relative abundance of Thiothrix in the amplicon sequencing data from both regions correlated with the estimation of its abundance determined using fluorescence in situ hybridization. In nonmetric multidimensional analysis samples were distributed along the first ordination axis according to the sequenced region rather than according to sample identities. The dynamics of microbial communities indicated that V1-V3 and the V4 regions of the 16S rRNA gene yielded comparable patterns of: 1) the changes occurring within the communities along fixed time intervals, 2) the slow turnover of activated sludge communities and 3) the rate of species replacement calculated from the taxa-time relationships. The temperature was the only operational variable that showed significant correlation with the composition of bacterial communities over time for the sets of data obtained with both pairs of primers. In conclusion, we show that despite the bias introduced by amplicon sequencing, the variable regions V1-V3 and V4 can be confidently used for the quantitative assessment of bacterial community dynamics, and provide a proper qualitative account of general taxa in the community, especially when the data are obtained over a convenient time window rather than at a single time point.

Break point on the auto-correlation function of Elsässer variable z- in the super-Alfvénic solar wind fluctuations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, X.; Tu, C. Y.; He, J.; Wang, L.

2017-12-01

It has been a longstanding debate on what the nature of Elsässer variables z- observed in the Alfvénic solar wind is. It is widely believed that z- represents inward propagating Alfvén waves and undergoes non-linear interaction with z+ to produce energy cascade. However, z- variations sometimes show nature of convective structures. Here we present a new data analysis on z- autocorrelation functions to get some definite information on its nature. We find that there is usually a break point on the z- auto-correlation function when the fluctuations show nearly pure Alfvénicity. The break point observed by Helios-2 spacecraft near 0.3 AU is at the first time lag ( 81 s), where the autocorrelation coefficient has the value less than that at zero-time lag by a factor of more than 0.4. The autocorrelation function breaks also appear in the WIND observations near 1 AU. The z- autocorrelation function is separated by the break into two parts: fast decreasing part and slowly decreasing part, which cannot be described in a whole by an exponential formula. The breaks in the z- autocorrelation function may represent that the z- time series are composed of high-frequency white noise and low-frequency apparent structures, which correspond to the flat and steep parts of the function, respectively. This explanation is supported by a simple test with a superposition of an artificial random data series and a smoothed random data series. Since in many cases z- autocorrelation functions do not decrease very quickly at large time lag and cannot be considered as the Lanczos type, no reliable value for correlation-time can be derived. Our results showed that in these cases with high Alfvénicity, z- should not be considered as inward-propagating wave. The power-law spectrum of z+ should be made by fluid turbulence cascade process presented by Kolmogorov.

Patterns of variations in large pelagic fish: A comparative approach between the Indian and the Atlantic Oceans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Corbineau, A.; Rouyer, T.; Fromentin, J.-M.; Cazelles, B.; Fonteneau, A.; Ménard, F.

2010-07-01

Catch data of large pelagic fish such as tuna, swordfish and billfish are highly variable ranging from short to long term. Based on fisheries data, these time series are noisy and reflect mixed information on exploitation (targeting, strategy, fishing power), population dynamics (recruitment, growth, mortality, migration, etc.), and environmental forcing (local conditions or dominant climate patterns). In this work, we investigated patterns of variation of large pelagic fish (i.e. yellowfin tuna, bigeye tuna, swordfish and blue marlin) in Japanese longliners catch data from 1960 to 2004. We performed wavelet analyses on the yearly time series of each fish species in each biogeographic province of the tropical Indian and Atlantic Oceans. In addition, we carried out cross-wavelet analyses between these biological time series and a large-scale climatic index, i.e. the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Results showed that the biogeographic province was the most important factor structuring the patterns of variability of Japanese catch time series. Relationships between the SOI and the fish catches in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans also pointed out the role of climatic variability for structuring patterns of variation of catch time series. This work finally confirmed that Japanese longline CPUE data poorly reflect the underlying population dynamics of tunas.

Coastal sea level variability in the eastern English Channel: Potentialities for future SWOT applicability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turki, Imen; Laignel, Benoit; Chevalier, Laetitia; Costa, Stephane

2014-05-01

Scientists and engineers need to understand the sea level variability in order to provide better estimates of the sea level rise for coastal defense using tide gauges and radar altimetry missions. The natural limitation of the tide gauge records is their geographical sparsity and confinement to coastlines. The future Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission will be launched in 2015 over a period of 5 years and will be designated to address this issue. This research was carried out in the framework of the program Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) which is a partnership between NASA and CNES. Using a series of statistical analyses, we point to characterize the sea level variability in the eastern English Channel (western France) from four tide gauges in Dunkirk, Dieppe, Le Havre and Cherbourg for the period 1964-2012. To assess the extent to which tide gauge point observations represent tide gauge data, we compare tide gauge records to SWOT measurements in their vicinity. Results have shown that the bimodality of the sea level, provided by the distribution analysis, can be reproduced by SWOT measurements with an overestimation of both modes and also the extreme values. The rate of the linear regression was also overestimated from 1.7-4 mm/yr to 2.6-5.4 mm/yr. The continuous wavelet transform of sea level records has shown the large-scale variability of annual (1-year band) and interannual cycles (2-6- and 6-12-year bands) in sea level, which can be explained by oceanographic and hydrological factors. High frequency dynamics of the sea level variability at short time-scales were extracted from SWOT measurements. They provide a good survey of the surge events (band of 3-4 months) and the spring-neap tidal cycle (band of 28 days). Then, tide gauges should be used in conjunction with satellite data to infer the full time-scale variability. Further studies are needed to refine the SWOT applicability in coastal areas. Key words: coastal zone, sea level variability, tide gauges, virtual SWOT measurements

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Blijderveen, Maarten van; University of Twente, Department of Thermal Engineering, Drienerlolaan 5, 7522 NB Enschede; Bramer, Eddy A.

Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We model piloted ignition times of wood and plastics. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The model is applied on a packed bed. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer When the air flow is above a critical level, no ignition can take place. - Abstract: To gain insight in the startup of an incinerator, this article deals with piloted ignition. A newly developed model is described to predict the piloted ignition times of wood, PMMA and PVC. The model is based on the lower flammability limit and the adiabatic flame temperature at this limit. The incoming radiative heat flux, sample thickness and moisture content are some of themore » used variables. Not only the ignition time can be calculated with the model, but also the mass flux and surface temperature at ignition. The ignition times for softwoods and PMMA are mainly under-predicted. For hardwoods and PVC the predicted ignition times agree well with experimental results. Due to a significant scatter in the experimental data the mass flux and surface temperature calculated with the model are hard to validate. The model is applied on the startup of a municipal waste incineration plant. For this process a maximum allowable primary air flow is derived. When the primary air flow is above this maximum air flow, no ignition can be obtained.« less

A cross-sectional study of the individual, social, and built environmental correlates of pedometer-based physical activity among elementary school children.

PubMed

McCormack, Gavin R; Giles-Corti, Billie; Timperio, Anna; Wood, Georgina; Villanueva, Karen

2011-04-12

Children who participate in regular physical activity obtain health benefits. Preliminary pedometer-based cut-points representing sufficient levels of physical activity among youth have been established; however limited evidence regarding correlates of achieving these cut-points exists. The purpose of this study was to identify correlates of pedometer-based cut-points among elementary school-aged children. A cross-section of children in grades 5-7 (10-12 years of age) were randomly selected from the most (n = 13) and least (n = 12) 'walkable' public elementary schools (Perth, Western Australia), stratified by socioeconomic status. Children (n = 1480; response rate = 56.6%) and parents (n = 1332; response rate = 88.8%) completed a survey, and steps were collected from children using pedometers. Pedometer data were categorized to reflect the sex-specific pedometer-based cut-points of ≥15000 steps/day for boys and ≥12000 steps/day for girls. Associations between socio-demographic characteristics, sedentary and active leisure-time behavior, independent mobility, active transportation and built environmental variables - collected from the child and parent surveys - and meeting pedometer-based cut-points were estimated (odds ratios: OR) using generalized estimating equations. Overall 927 children participated in all components of the study and provided complete data. On average, children took 11407 ± 3136 steps/day (boys: 12270 ± 3350 vs. girls: 10681 ± 2745 steps/day; p < 0.001) and 25.9% (boys: 19.1 vs. girls: 31.6%; p < 0.001) achieved the pedometer-based cut-points.After adjusting for all other variables and school clustering, meeting the pedometer-based cut-points was negatively associated (p < 0.05) with being male (OR = 0.42), parent self-reported number of different destinations in the neighborhood (OR 0.93), and a friend's (OR 0.62) or relative's (OR 0.44, boys only) house being at least a 10-minute walk from home. Achieving the pedometer-based cut-points was positively associated with participating in screen-time < 2 hours/day (OR 1.88), not being driven to school (OR 1.48), attending a school located in a high SES neighborhood (OR 1.33), the average number of steps among children within the respondent's grade (for each 500 step/day increase: OR 1.29), and living further than a 10-minute walk from a relative's house (OR 1.69, girls only). Comprehensive multi-level interventions that reduce screen-time, encourage active travel to/from school and foster a physically active classroom culture might encourage more physical activity among children.

A cross-sectional study of the individual, social, and built environmental correlates of pedometer-based physical activity among elementary school children

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Children who participate in regular physical activity obtain health benefits. Preliminary pedometer-based cut-points representing sufficient levels of physical activity among youth have been established; however limited evidence regarding correlates of achieving these cut-points exists. The purpose of this study was to identify correlates of pedometer-based cut-points among elementary school-aged children. Method A cross-section of children in grades 5-7 (10-12 years of age) were randomly selected from the most (n = 13) and least (n = 12) 'walkable' public elementary schools (Perth, Western Australia), stratified by socioeconomic status. Children (n = 1480; response rate = 56.6%) and parents (n = 1332; response rate = 88.8%) completed a survey, and steps were collected from children using pedometers. Pedometer data were categorized to reflect the sex-specific pedometer-based cut-points of ≥15000 steps/day for boys and ≥12000 steps/day for girls. Associations between socio-demographic characteristics, sedentary and active leisure-time behavior, independent mobility, active transportation and built environmental variables - collected from the child and parent surveys - and meeting pedometer-based cut-points were estimated (odds ratios: OR) using generalized estimating equations. Results Overall 927 children participated in all components of the study and provided complete data. On average, children took 11407 ± 3136 steps/day (boys: 12270 ± 3350 vs. girls: 10681 ± 2745 steps/day; p < 0.001) and 25.9% (boys: 19.1 vs. girls: 31.6%; p < 0.001) achieved the pedometer-based cut-points. After adjusting for all other variables and school clustering, meeting the pedometer-based cut-points was negatively associated (p < 0.05) with being male (OR = 0.42), parent self-reported number of different destinations in the neighborhood (OR 0.93), and a friend's (OR 0.62) or relative's (OR 0.44, boys only) house being at least a 10-minute walk from home. Achieving the pedometer-based cut-points was positively associated with participating in screen-time < 2 hours/day (OR 1.88), not being driven to school (OR 1.48), attending a school located in a high SES neighborhood (OR 1.33), the average number of steps among children within the respondent's grade (for each 500 step/day increase: OR 1.29), and living further than a 10-minute walk from a relative's house (OR 1.69, girls only). Conclusions Comprehensive multi-level interventions that reduce screen-time, encourage active travel to/from school and foster a physically active classroom culture might encourage more physical activity among children. PMID:21486475

Response surface modeling of acid activation of raw diatomite using in sunflower oil bleaching by: Box-Behnken experimental design.

PubMed

Larouci, M; Safa, M; Meddah, B; Aoues, A; Sonnet, P

2015-03-01

The optimum conditions for acid activation of diatomite for maximizing bleaching efficiency of the diatomite in sun flower oil treatment were studied. Box-Behnken experimental design combining with response surface modeling (RSM) and quadratic programming (QP) was employed to obtain the optimum conditions of three independent variables (acid concentration, activation time and solid to liquid) for acid activation of diatomite. The significance of independent variables and their interactions were tested by means of the analysis of variance (ANOVA) with 95 % confidence limits (α = 0.05). The optimum values of the selected variables were obtained by solving the quadratic regression model, as well as by analyzing the response surface contour plots. The experimental conditions at this global point were determined to be acid concentration = 8.963 N, activation time = 11.9878 h, and solid to liquid ratio = 221.2113 g/l, the corresponding bleaching efficiency was found to be about 99 %.

A New Test Unit for Disintegration End-Point Determination of Orodispersible Films.

PubMed

Low, Ariana; Kok, Si Ling; Khong, Yuet Mei; Chan, Sui Yung; Gokhale, Rajeev

2015-11-01

No standard time or pharmacopoeia disintegration test method for orodispersible films (ODFs) exists. The USP disintegration test for tablets and capsules poses significant challenges for end-point determination when used for ODFs. We tested a newly developed disintegration test unit (DTU) against the USP disintegration test. The DTU is an accessory to the USP disintegration apparatus. It holds the ODF in a horizontal position, allowing top-view of the ODF during testing. A Gauge R&R study was conducted to assign relative contributions of the total variability from the operator, sample or the experimental set-up. Precision was compared using commercial ODF products in different media. Agreement between the two measurement methods was analysed. The DTU showed improved repeatability and reproducibility compared to the USP disintegration system with tighter standard deviations regardless of operator or medium. There is good agreement between the two methods, with the USP disintegration test giving generally longer disintegration times possibly due to difficulty in end-point determination. The DTU provided clear end-point determination and is suitable for quality control of ODFs during product developmental stage or manufacturing. This may facilitate the development of a standardized methodology for disintegration time determination of ODFs. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. and the American Pharmacists Association.

DORIS-based point mascons for the long term stability of precise orbit solutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cerri, L.; Lemoine, J. M.; Mercier, F.; Zelensky, N. P.; Lemoine, F. G.

2013-08-01

In recent years non-tidal Time Varying Gravity (TVG) has emerged as the most important contributor in the error budget of Precision Orbit Determination (POD) solutions for altimeter satellites' orbits. The Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission has provided POD analysts with static and time-varying gravity models that are very accurate over the 2002-2012 time interval, but whose linear rates cannot be safely extrapolated before and after the GRACE lifespan. One such model based on a combination of data from GRACE and Lageos from 2002-2010, is used in the dynamic POD solutions developed for the Geophysical Data Records (GDRs) of the Jason series of altimeter missions and the equivalent products from lower altitude missions such as Envisat, Cryosat-2, and HY-2A. In order to accommodate long-term time-variable gravity variations not included in the background geopotential model, we assess the feasibility of using DORIS data to observe local mass variations using point mascons. In particular, we show that the point-mascon approach can stabilize the geographically correlated orbit errors which are of fundamental interest for the analysis of regional Mean Sea Level trends based on altimeter data, and can therefore provide an interim solution in the event of GRACE data loss. The time series of point-mass solutions for Greenland and Antarctica show good agreement with independent series derived from GRACE data, indicating a mass loss at rate of 210 Gt/year and 110 Gt/year respectively.

Reciprocal Associations between Negative Affect, Binge Eating, and Purging in the Natural Environment in Women with Bulimia Nervosa

PubMed Central

Lavender, Jason M.; Utzinger, Linsey M.; Cao, Li; Wonderlich, Stephen A.; Engel, Scott G.; Mitchell, James E.; Crosby, Ross D.

2016-01-01

Although negative affect (NA) has been identified as a common trigger for bulimic behaviors, findings regarding NA following such behaviors have been mixed. This study examined reciprocal associations between NA and bulimic behaviors using real-time, naturalistic data. Participants were 133 women with DSM-IV bulimia nervosa (BN) who completed a two-week ecological momentary assessment (EMA) protocol in which they recorded bulimic behaviors and provided multiple daily ratings of NA. A multilevel autoregressive cross-lagged analysis was conducted to examine concurrent, first-order autoregressive, and prospective associations between NA, binge eating, and purging across the day. Results revealed positive concurrent associations between all variables across all time points, as well as numerous autoregressive associations. For prospective associations, higher NA predicted subsequent bulimic symptoms at multiple time points; conversely, binge eating predicted lower NA at multiple time points, and purging predicted higher NA at one time point. Several autoregressive and prospective associations were also found between binge eating and purging. This study used a novel approach to examine NA in relation to bulimic symptoms, contributing to the existing literature by directly examining the magnitude of the associations, examining differences in the associations across the day, and controlling for other associations in testing each effect in the model. These findings may have relevance for understanding the etiology and/or maintenance of bulimic symptoms, as well as potentially informing psychological interventions for BN. PMID:26692122

Variability of United States Online Rehabilitation Protocols for Proximal Hamstring Tendon Repair.

PubMed

Lightsey, Harry M; Kantrowitz, David E; Swindell, Hasani W; Trofa, David P; Ahmad, Christopher S; Lynch, T Sean

2018-02-01

The optimal postoperative rehabilitation protocol following repair of complete proximal hamstring tendon ruptures is the subject of ongoing investigation, with a need for more standardized regimens and evidence-based modalities. To assess the variability across proximal hamstring tendon repair rehabilitation protocols published online by United States (US) orthopaedic teaching programs. Cross-sectional study. Online proximal hamstring physical therapy protocols from US academic orthopaedic programs were reviewed. A web-based search using the search term complete proximal hamstring repair rehabilitation protocol provided an additional 14 protocols. A comprehensive scoring rubric was developed after review of all protocols and was used to assess each protocol for both the presence of various rehabilitation components and the point at which those components were introduced. Of 50 rehabilitation protocols identified, 35 satisfied inclusion criteria and were analyzed. Twenty-five protocols (71%) recommended immediate postoperative bracing: 12 (34%) prescribed knee bracing, 8 (23%) prescribed hip bracing, and 5 (14%) did not specify the type of brace recommended. Fourteen protocols (40%) advised immediate nonweightbearing with crutches, while 16 protocols (46%) permitted immediate toe-touch weightbearing. Advancement to full weightbearing was allowed at a mean of 7.1 weeks (range, 4-12 weeks). Most protocols (80%) recommended gentle knee and hip passive range of motion and active range of motion, starting at a mean 1.4 weeks (range, 0-3 weeks) and 4.0 weeks (range, 0-6 weeks), respectively. However, only 6 protocols (17%) provided specific time points to initiate full hip and knee range of motion: a mean 8.0 weeks (range, 4-12 weeks) and 7.8 weeks (range, 0-12 weeks), respectively. Considerable variability was noted in the inclusion and timing of strengthening, stretching, proprioception, and cardiovascular exercises. Fifteen protocols (43%) required completion of specific return-to-sport criteria before resuming training. Marked variability is found in both the composition and timing of rehabilitation components across the various complete proximal hamstring repair rehabilitation protocols published online. This finding mirrors the variability of proposed rehabilitation protocols in the professional literature and represents an opportunity to improve patient care.

Automated Approach to Very High-Order Aeroacoustic Computations. Revision

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dyson, Rodger W.; Goodrich, John W.

2001-01-01

Computational aeroacoustics requires efficient, high-resolution simulation tools. For smooth problems, this is best accomplished with very high-order in space and time methods on small stencils. However, the complexity of highly accurate numerical methods can inhibit their practical application, especially in irregular geometries. This complexity is reduced by using a special form of Hermite divided-difference spatial interpolation on Cartesian grids, and a Cauchy-Kowalewski recursion procedure for time advancement. In addition, a stencil constraint tree reduces the complexity of interpolating grid points that am located near wall boundaries. These procedures are used to develop automatically and to implement very high-order methods (> 15) for solving the linearized Euler equations that can achieve less than one grid point per wavelength resolution away from boundaries by including spatial derivatives of the primitive variables at each grid point. The accuracy of stable surface treatments is currently limited to 11th order for grid aligned boundaries and to 2nd order for irregular boundaries.

A novel in vitro image-based assay identifies new drug leads for giardiasis.

PubMed

Hart, Christopher J S; Munro, Taylah; Andrews, Katherine T; Ryan, John H; Riches, Andrew G; Skinner-Adams, Tina S

2017-04-01

Giardia duodenalis is an intestinal parasite that causes giardiasis, a widespread human gastrointestinal disease. Treatment of giardiasis relies on a small arsenal of compounds that can suffer from limitations including side-effects, variable treatment efficacy and parasite drug resistance. Thus new anti-Giardia drug leads are required. The search for new compounds with anti-Giardia activity currently depends on assays that can be labour-intensive, expensive and restricted to measuring activity at a single time-point. Here we describe a new in vitro assay to assess anti-Giardia activity. This image-based assay utilizes the Perkin-Elmer Operetta ® and permits automated assessment of parasite growth at multiple time points without cell-staining. Using this new approach, we assessed the "Malaria Box" compound set for anti-Giardia activity. Three compounds with sub-μM activity (IC 50 0.6-0.9 μM) were identified as potential starting points for giardiasis drug discovery. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

An Automated Approach to Very High Order Aeroacoustic Computations in Complex Geometries

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dyson, Rodger W.; Goodrich, John W.

2000-01-01

Computational aeroacoustics requires efficient, high-resolution simulation tools. And for smooth problems, this is best accomplished with very high order in space and time methods on small stencils. But the complexity of highly accurate numerical methods can inhibit their practical application, especially in irregular geometries. This complexity is reduced by using a special form of Hermite divided-difference spatial interpolation on Cartesian grids, and a Cauchy-Kowalewslci recursion procedure for time advancement. In addition, a stencil constraint tree reduces the complexity of interpolating grid points that are located near wall boundaries. These procedures are used to automatically develop and implement very high order methods (>15) for solving the linearized Euler equations that can achieve less than one grid point per wavelength resolution away from boundaries by including spatial derivatives of the primitive variables at each grid point. The accuracy of stable surface treatments is currently limited to 11th order for grid aligned boundaries and to 2nd order for irregular boundaries.

Individual set-point and gain of emmetropization in chickens.

PubMed

Tepelus, Tudor Cosmin; Schaeffel, Frank

2010-01-01

During the developmental process of emmetropization evidence shows that visual feedback guides the eye as it approaches a refractive state close to zero, or slightly hyperopic. How this "set-point" is internally defined, in the presence of continuous shifts of the focal plane with different viewing distances and accommodation, remains unclear. Minimizing defocus blur over time should produce similar end-point refractions in different individuals. However, we found that individual chickens display considerable variability in their set-point refractive states, despite that they all had the same visual experience. This variability is not random since the refractions in both eyes were highly correlated - even though it is known that they can emmetropize independently. Furthermore, if chicks underwent a period of experimentally induced ametropia, they returned to their individual set-point refractions during recovery (correlation of the refractions before treatment versus after recovery: n=19 chicks, 38 eyes, left eyes: slope 1.01, R=0.860; right eyes: slope 0.85, R=0.610, p<0.001, linear regression). Also, the induced deprivation myopia was correlated in both eyes (n=18 chicks, 36 eyes, p<0.01, orthogonal regression). If chicks were treated with spectacle lenses, the compensatory changes in refraction were, on average, appropriate but individual chicks displayed variable responses. Again, the refractions of both eyes remained correlated (negative lenses, n=18 chicks, 36 eyes, slope 0.89, R=0.504, p<0.01, positive lenses: n=21 chicks, 42 eyes, slope 1.14, R=0.791, p<0.001). The amount of deprivation myopia that developed in two successive treatment cycles, with an intermittent period of recovery, was not correlated; only vitreous chamber growth was almost significantly correlated in both cycles (n=7 chicks, 14 eyes; p<0.05). The amounts of ametropia and vitreous chamber changes induced in two successive cycles of treatment, first with lenses and then with diffusers, were also not correlated, suggesting that the "gains of lens compensation" are different from those in deprivation myopia. In summary, (1) there appears to be an endogenous, possibly genetic, definition of the set-point of emmetropization in each individual, which is similar in both eyes, (2) visual conditions that induce ametropia produce variable changes in refractions, with high correlations between both eyes, (3) overall, the "gain of emmetropization" appears only weakly controlled by endogenous factors.

Quality of Acute Psychedelic Experience Predicts Therapeutic Efficacy of Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression.

PubMed

Roseman, Leor; Nutt, David J; Carhart-Harris, Robin L

2017-01-01

Introduction: It is a basic principle of the "psychedelic" treatment model that the quality of the acute experience mediates long-term improvements in mental health. In the present paper we sought to test this using data from a clinical trial assessing psilocybin for treatment-resistant depression (TRD). In line with previous reports, we hypothesized that the occurrence and magnitude of Oceanic Boundlessness (OBN) (sharing features with mystical-type experience) and Dread of Ego Dissolution (DED) (similar to anxiety) would predict long-term positive outcomes, whereas sensory perceptual effects would have negligible predictive value. Materials and Methods: Twenty patients with treatment resistant depression underwent treatment with psilocybin (two separate sessions: 10 and 25 mg psilocybin). The Altered States of Consciousness (ASC) questionnaire was used to assess the quality of experiences in the 25 mg psilocybin session. From the ASC, the dimensions OBN and DED were used to measure the mystical-type and challenging experiences, respectively. The Self-Reported Quick Inventory of Depressive Symptoms (QIDS-SR) at 5 weeks served as the endpoint clinical outcome measure, as in later time points some of the subjects had gone on to receive new treatments, thus confounding inferences. In a repeated measure ANOVA, Time was the within-subject factor (independent variable), with QIDS-SR as the within-subject dependent variable in baseline, 1-day, 1-week, 5-weeks. OBN and DED were independent variables. OBN-by-Time and DED-by-Time interactions were the primary outcomes of interest. Results: For the interaction of OBN and DED with Time (QIDS-SR as dependent variable), the main effect and the effects at each time point compared to baseline were all significant ( p = 0.002 and p = 0.003, respectively, for main effects), confirming our main hypothesis. Furthermore, Pearson's correlation of OBN with QIDS-SR (5 weeks) was specific compared to perceptual dimensions of the ASC ( p < 0.05). Discussion: This report further bolsters the view that the quality of the acute psychedelic experience is a key mediator of long-term changes in mental health. Future therapeutic work with psychedelics should recognize the essential importance of quality of experience in determining treatment efficacy and consider ways of enhancing mystical-type experiences and reducing anxiety. Trial Registration: ISRCTN, number ISRCTN14426797, http://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN14426797.

Quality of Acute Psychedelic Experience Predicts Therapeutic Efficacy of Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression

PubMed Central

Roseman, Leor; Nutt, David J.; Carhart-Harris, Robin L.

2018-01-01

Introduction: It is a basic principle of the “psychedelic” treatment model that the quality of the acute experience mediates long-term improvements in mental health. In the present paper we sought to test this using data from a clinical trial assessing psilocybin for treatment-resistant depression (TRD). In line with previous reports, we hypothesized that the occurrence and magnitude of Oceanic Boundlessness (OBN) (sharing features with mystical-type experience) and Dread of Ego Dissolution (DED) (similar to anxiety) would predict long-term positive outcomes, whereas sensory perceptual effects would have negligible predictive value. Materials and Methods: Twenty patients with treatment resistant depression underwent treatment with psilocybin (two separate sessions: 10 and 25 mg psilocybin). The Altered States of Consciousness (ASC) questionnaire was used to assess the quality of experiences in the 25 mg psilocybin session. From the ASC, the dimensions OBN and DED were used to measure the mystical-type and challenging experiences, respectively. The Self-Reported Quick Inventory of Depressive Symptoms (QIDS-SR) at 5 weeks served as the endpoint clinical outcome measure, as in later time points some of the subjects had gone on to receive new treatments, thus confounding inferences. In a repeated measure ANOVA, Time was the within-subject factor (independent variable), with QIDS-SR as the within-subject dependent variable in baseline, 1-day, 1-week, 5-weeks. OBN and DED were independent variables. OBN-by-Time and DED-by-Time interactions were the primary outcomes of interest. Results: For the interaction of OBN and DED with Time (QIDS-SR as dependent variable), the main effect and the effects at each time point compared to baseline were all significant (p = 0.002 and p = 0.003, respectively, for main effects), confirming our main hypothesis. Furthermore, Pearson's correlation of OBN with QIDS-SR (5 weeks) was specific compared to perceptual dimensions of the ASC (p < 0.05). Discussion: This report further bolsters the view that the quality of the acute psychedelic experience is a key mediator of long-term changes in mental health. Future therapeutic work with psychedelics should recognize the essential importance of quality of experience in determining treatment efficacy and consider ways of enhancing mystical-type experiences and reducing anxiety. Trial Registration: ISRCTN, number ISRCTN14426797, http://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN14426797 PMID:29387009

Identification of critical formulation and processing variables for metoprolol tartrate extended-release (ER) matrix tablets.

PubMed

Rekhi, G S; Nellore, R V; Hussain, A S; Tillman, L G; Malinowski, H J; Augsburger, L L

1999-06-02

The objective of this study, was to examine the influence of critical formulation and processing variables as described in the AAPS/FDA Workshop II report on scale-up of oral extended-release dosage forms, using a hydrophilic polymer hydroxypropyl methylcellulose (Methocel K100LV). A face-centered central composite design (26 runs+3 center points) was selected and the variables studied were: filler ratio (lactose:dicalcium phosphate (50:50)), polymer level (15/32.5/50%), magnesium stearate level (1/1.5/2%), lubricant blend time (2/6/10 min) and compression force (400/600/800 kg). Granulations (1.5 kg, 3000 units) were manufactured using a fluid-bed process, lubricated and tablets (100 mg metoprolol tartrate) were compressed on an instrumented Manesty D3B rotary tablet press. Dissolution tests were performed using USP apparatus 2, at 50 rpm in 900 ml phosphate buffer (pH 6.8). Responses studied included percent drug released at Q1 (1 h), Q4, Q6, Q12. Analysis of variance indicated that change in polymer level was the most significant factor affecting drug release. Increase in dicalcium phosphate level and compression force were found to affect the percent released at the later dissolution time points. Some interaction effects between the variables studied were also found to be statistically significant. The drug release mechanism was predominantly found to be Fickian diffusion controlled (n=0.46-0.59). Response surface plots and regression models were developed which adequately described the experimental space. Three formulations having slow-, medium- and fast-releasing dissolution profiles were identified for a future bioavailability/bioequivalency study. The results of this study provided the framework for further work involving both in vivo studies and scale-up.

Development of a neural-based forecasting tool to classify recreational water quality using fecal indicator organisms.

PubMed

Motamarri, Srinivas; Boccelli, Dominic L

2012-09-15

Users of recreational waters may be exposed to elevated pathogen levels through various point/non-point sources. Typical daily notifications rely on microbial analysis of indicator organisms (e.g., Escherichia coli) that require 18, or more, hours to provide an adequate response. Modeling approaches, such as multivariate linear regression (MLR) and artificial neural networks (ANN), have been utilized to provide quick predictions of microbial concentrations for classification purposes, but generally suffer from high false negative rates. This study introduces the use of learning vector quantization (LVQ)--a direct classification approach--for comparison with MLR and ANN approaches and integrates input selection for model development with respect to primary and secondary water quality standards within the Charles River Basin (Massachusetts, USA) using meteorologic, hydrologic, and microbial explanatory variables. Integrating input selection into model development showed that discharge variables were the most important explanatory variables while antecedent rainfall and time since previous events were also important. With respect to classification, all three models adequately represented the non-violated samples (>90%). The MLR approach had the highest false negative rates associated with classifying violated samples (41-62% vs 13-43% (ANN) and <16% (LVQ)) when using five or more explanatory variables. The ANN performance was more similar to LVQ when a larger number of explanatory variables were utilized, but the ANN performance degraded toward MLR performance as explanatory variables were removed. Overall, the use of LVQ as a direct classifier provided the best overall classification ability with respect to violated/non-violated samples for both standards. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Optimal Low Energy Earth-Moon Transfers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Griesemer, Paul Ricord; Ocampo, Cesar; Cooley, D. S.

2010-01-01

The optimality of a low-energy Earth-Moon transfer is examined for the first time using primer vector theory. An optimal control problem is formed with the following free variables: the location, time, and magnitude of the transfer insertion burn, and the transfer time. A constraint is placed on the initial state of the spacecraft to bind it to a given initial orbit around a first body, and on the final state of the spacecraft to limit its Keplerian energy with respect to a second body. Optimal transfers in the system are shown to meet certain conditions placed on the primer vector and its time derivative. A two point boundary value problem containing these necessary conditions is created for use in targeting optimal transfers. The two point boundary value problem is then applied to the ballistic lunar capture problem, and an optimal trajectory is shown. Additionally, the ballistic lunar capture trajectory is examined to determine whether one or more additional impulses may improve on the cost of the transfer.

Improved Results for Route Planning in Stochastic Transportation Networks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boyan, Justin; Mitzenmacher, Michael

2000-01-01

In the bus network problem, the goal is to generate a plan for getting from point X to point Y within a city using buses in the smallest expected time. Because bus arrival times are not determined by a fixed schedule but instead may be random. the problem requires more than standard shortest path techniques. In recent work, Datar and Ranade provide algorithms in the case where bus arrivals are assumed to be independent and exponentially distributed. We offer solutions to two important generalizations of the problem, answering open questions posed by Datar and Ranade. First, we provide a polynomial time algorithm for a much wider class of arrival distributions, namely those with increasing failure rate. This class includes not only exponential distributions but also uniform, normal, and gamma distributions. Second, in the case where bus arrival times are independent and geometric discrete random variable,. we provide an algorithm for transportation networks of buses and trains, where trains run according to a fixed schedule.

Unsteady steady-states: Central causes of unintentional force drift

PubMed Central

Ambike, Satyajit; Mattos, Daniela; Zatsiorsky, Vladimir M.; Latash, Mark L.

2016-01-01

We applied the theory of synergies to analyze the processes that lead to unintentional decline in isometric fingertip force when visual feedback of the produced force is removed. We tracked the changes in hypothetical control variables involved in single fingertip force production based on the equilibrium-point hypothesis, namely, the fingertip referent coordinate (RFT) and its apparent stiffness (CFT). The system's state is defined by a point in the {RFT; CFT} space. We tested the hypothesis that, after visual feedback removal, this point (1) moves along directions leading to drop in the output fingertip force, and (2) has even greater motion along directions that leaves the force unchanged. Subjects produced a prescribed fingertip force using visual feedback, and attempted to maintain this force for 15 s after the feedback was removed. We used the “inverse piano” apparatus to apply small and smooth positional perturbations to fingers at various times after visual feedback removal. The time courses of RFT and CFT showed that force drop was mostly due to a drift in RFT towards the actual fingertip position. Three analysis techniques, namely, hyperbolic regression, surrogate data analysis, and computation of motor-equivalent and non-motor-equivalent motions, suggested strong co-variation in RFT and CFT stabilizing the force magnitude. Finally, the changes in the two hypothetical control variables {RFT; CFT} relative to their average trends also displayed covariation. On the whole the findings suggest that unintentional force drop is associated with (a) a slow drift of the referent coordinate that pulls the system towards a low-energy state, and (b) a faster synergic motion of RFT and CFT that tends to stabilize the output fingertip force about the slowly-drifting equilibrium point. PMID:27540726

Unsteady steady-states: central causes of unintentional force drift.

PubMed

Ambike, Satyajit; Mattos, Daniela; Zatsiorsky, Vladimir M; Latash, Mark L

2016-12-01

We applied the theory of synergies to analyze the processes that lead to unintentional decline in isometric fingertip force when visual feedback of the produced force is removed. We tracked the changes in hypothetical control variables involved in single fingertip force production based on the equilibrium-point hypothesis, namely the fingertip referent coordinate (R FT ) and its apparent stiffness (C FT ). The system's state is defined by a point in the {R FT ; C FT } space. We tested the hypothesis that, after visual feedback removal, this point (1) moves along directions leading to drop in the output fingertip force, and (2) has even greater motion along directions that leaves the force unchanged. Subjects produced a prescribed fingertip force using visual feedback and attempted to maintain this force for 15 s after the feedback was removed. We used the "inverse piano" apparatus to apply small and smooth positional perturbations to fingers at various times after visual feedback removal. The time courses of R FT and C FT showed that force drop was mostly due to a drift in R FT toward the actual fingertip position. Three analysis techniques, namely hyperbolic regression, surrogate data analysis, and computation of motor-equivalent and non-motor-equivalent motions, suggested strong covariation in R FT and C FT stabilizing the force magnitude. Finally, the changes in the two hypothetical control variables {R FT ; C FT } relative to their average trends also displayed covariation. On the whole, the findings suggest that unintentional force drop is associated with (a) a slow drift of the referent coordinate that pulls the system toward a low-energy state and (b) a faster synergic motion of R FT and C FT that tends to stabilize the output fingertip force about the slowly drifting equilibrium point.

Behavior of sensitivities in the one-dimensional advection-dispersion equation: Implications for parameter estimation and sampling design

USGS Publications Warehouse

Knopman, Debra S.; Voss, Clifford I.

1987-01-01

The spatial and temporal variability of sensitivities has a significant impact on parameter estimation and sampling design for studies of solute transport in porous media. Physical insight into the behavior of sensitivities is offered through an analysis of analytically derived sensitivities for the one-dimensional form of the advection-dispersion equation. When parameters are estimated in regression models of one-dimensional transport, the spatial and temporal variability in sensitivities influences variance and covariance of parameter estimates. Several principles account for the observed influence of sensitivities on parameter uncertainty. (1) Information about a physical parameter may be most accurately gained at points in space and time with a high sensitivity to the parameter. (2) As the distance of observation points from the upstream boundary increases, maximum sensitivity to velocity during passage of the solute front increases and the consequent estimate of velocity tends to have lower variance. (3) The frequency of sampling must be “in phase” with the S shape of the dispersion sensitivity curve to yield the most information on dispersion. (4) The sensitivity to the dispersion coefficient is usually at least an order of magnitude less than the sensitivity to velocity. (5) The assumed probability distribution of random error in observations of solute concentration determines the form of the sensitivities. (6) If variance in random error in observations is large, trends in sensitivities of observation points may be obscured by noise and thus have limited value in predicting variance in parameter estimates among designs. (7) Designs that minimize the variance of one parameter may not necessarily minimize the variance of other parameters. (8) The time and space interval over which an observation point is sensitive to a given parameter depends on the actual values of the parameters in the underlying physical system.

Controls on sinuosity in the sparsely vegetated Fossálar River, southern Iceland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ielpi, Alessandro

2017-06-01

Vegetation exerts strong controls on fluvial sinuosity, providing bank stability and buffering surface runoff. These controls are manifest in densely vegetated landscapes, whereas sparsely vegetated fluvial systems have been so far overlooked. This study integrates remote sensing and gauging records of the meandering to wandering Fossálar River, a relatively steep-sloped (< 2.5%) Icelandic river featuring well-developed point bars (79%-85% of total active bar surface) despite the lack of thick, arborescent vegetation. Over four decades, fluctuations in the sinuosity index (1.15-1.43) and vegetation cover (63%-83%) are not significantly correlated (r = 0.28, p > 0.05), suggesting that relationships between the two are mediated by intervening variables and uncertain lag times. By comparison, discharge regime and fluvial planform show direct correlation over monthly to yearly time scales, with stable discharge stages accompanying the accretion of meander bends and peak floods related to destructive point-bar reworking. Rapid planform change is aided by the unconsolidated nature of unrooted alluvial banks, with recorded rates of lateral channel-belt migration averaging 18 m/yr. Valley confinement and channel mobility also control the geometry and evolution of individual point bars, with the highest degree of spatial geomorphic variability recorded in low-gradient stretches where lateral migration is unimpeded. Point bars in the Fossálar River display morphometric values comparable to those of other sparsely vegetated rivers, suggesting shared scalar properties. This conjecture prompts the need for more sophisticated integrations between remote sensing and gauging records on modern rivers lacking widespread plant life. While a large volume of experimental and field-based work maintains that thick vegetation has a critical role in limiting braiding, thus favouring sinuosity, this study demonstrates the stronger controls of discharge regime and alluvial morphology on sparsely vegetated sinuous rivers.

Visit-to-visit and 24-h blood pressure variability: association with endothelial and smooth muscle function in African Americans.

PubMed

Diaz, K M; Veerabhadrappa, P; Kashem, M A; Thakkar, S R; Feairheller, D L; Sturgeon, K M; Ling, C; Williamson, S T; Kretzschmar, J; Lee, H; Grimm, H; Babbitt, D M; Vin, C; Fan, X; Crabbe, D L; Brown, M D

2013-11-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate the association of visit-to-visit and 24-h blood pressure (BP) variability with markers of endothelial injury and vascular function. We recruited 72 African Americans who were non-diabetic, non-smoking and free of cardiovascular (CV) and renal disease. Office BP was measured at three visits and 24-h ambulatory BP monitoring was conducted to measure visit-to-visit and 24-h BP variability, respectively. The 5-min time-course of brachial artery flow-mediated dilation and nitroglycerin-mediated dilation were assessed as measures of endothelial and smooth muscle function. Fasted blood samples were analyzed for circulating endothelial microparticles (EMPs). Significantly lower CD31+CD42- EMPs were found in participants with high visit-to-visit systolic blood pressure (SBP) variability or high 24-h diastolic blood pressure (DBP) variability. Participants with high visit-to-visit DBP variability had significantly lower flow-mediated dilation and higher nitroglycerin-mediated dilation at multiple time-points. When analyzed as continuous variables, 24-h mean arterial pressure variability was inversely associated with CD62+ EMPs; visit-to-visit DBP variability was inversely associated with flow-mediated dilation normalized by smooth muscle function and was positively associated with nitroglycerin-mediated dilation; and 24-h DBP variability was positively associated with nitroglycerin-mediated dilation. All associations were independent of age, gender, body mass index and mean BP. In conclusion, in this cohort of African Americans visit-to-visit and 24-h BP variability were associated with measures of endothelial injury, endothelial function and smooth muscle function. These results suggest that BP variability may influence the pathogenesis of CV disease, in part, through influences on vascular health.

Optimal ballistically captured Earth-Moon transfers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ricord Griesemer, Paul; Ocampo, Cesar; Cooley, D. S.

2012-07-01

The optimality of a low-energy Earth-Moon transfer terminating in ballistic capture is examined for the first time using primer vector theory. An optimal control problem is formed with the following free variables: the location, time, and magnitude of the transfer insertion burn, and the transfer time. A constraint is placed on the initial state of the spacecraft to bind it to a given initial orbit around a first body, and on the final state of the spacecraft to limit its Keplerian energy with respect to a second body. Optimal transfers in the system are shown to meet certain conditions placed on the primer vector and its time derivative. A two point boundary value problem containing these necessary conditions is created for use in targeting optimal transfers. The two point boundary value problem is then applied to the ballistic lunar capture problem, and an optimal trajectory is shown. Additionally, the problem is then modified to fix the time of transfer, allowing for optimal multi-impulse transfers. The tradeoff between transfer time and fuel cost is shown for Earth-Moon ballistic lunar capture transfers.

Landscape Change Detected Over A 60 Year Period In The Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, Alaska, Using High Resolution Aerial Photographs And Satellite Images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jorgenson, J. C.; Jorgenson, M. T.; Boldenow, M.; Orndahl, K. M.

2016-12-01

We documented landscape change over a 60 year period in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in northeastern Alaska using aerial photographs and satellite images. We used a stratified random sample to allow inference to the whole refuge (78,050 km2), with five random sites in each of seven ecoregions. Each site (2 km2) had a systematic grid of 100 points for a total of 3500 points. We chose study sites in the overlap area covered by acceptable imagery in three time periods: aerial photographs from 1947 - 1955 and 1978 - 1988, Quick Bird and IKONOS satellite images from 2000 - 2007.At each point a 10 meter radius circle was visually evaluated in ARC-MAP for each time period for vegetation type, disturbance, presence of ice wedge polygon microtopography and surface water. A landscape change category was assigned to each point based on differences detected between the three periods. Change types were assigned for time interval 1, interval 2 and overall. Additional explanatory variables included elevation, slope, aspect, geology, physiography and temperature. Overall, 23% of points changed over the study period. Fire was the most common change agent, affecting 28% of the Boreal Forest points. The next most common change was degradation of soil ice wedges (thermokarst), detected at 12% of the points on the North Slope Tundra. The other most common changes included increase in cover of trees or shrubs (7% of Boreal Forest and Brooks Range points) and erosion or deposition on river floodplains and at the Beaufort Sea coast. Changes on the North Slope Tundra tended to be related to landscape wetting, mainly thermokarst. Changes in the Boreal Forest tended to involve landscape drying, including fire, reduced area of lakes and tree increase on wet sites. The second time interval coincided with a shift towards a warmer climate and had greater change in several categories including thermokarst, lake changes and tree and shrub increase.

State-space modeling of population sizes and trends in Nihoa Finch and Millerbird

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gorresen, P. Marcos; Brinck, Kevin W.; Camp, Richard J.; Farmer, Chris; Plentovich, Sheldon M.; Banko, Paul C.

2016-01-01

Both of the 2 passerines endemic to Nihoa Island, Hawai‘i, USA—the Nihoa Millerbird (Acrocephalus familiaris kingi) and Nihoa Finch (Telespiza ultima)—are listed as endangered by federal and state agencies. Their abundances have been estimated by irregularly implemented fixed-width strip-transect sampling from 1967 to 2012, from which area-based extrapolation of the raw counts produced highly variable abundance estimates for both species. To evaluate an alternative survey method and improve abundance estimates, we conducted variable-distance point-transect sampling between 2010 and 2014. We compared our results to those obtained from strip-transect samples. In addition, we applied state-space models to derive improved estimates of population size and trends from the legacy time series of strip-transect counts. Both species were fairly evenly distributed across Nihoa and occurred in all or nearly all available habitat. Population trends for Nihoa Millerbird were inconclusive because of high within-year variance. Trends for Nihoa Finch were positive, particularly since the early 1990s. Distance-based analysis of point-transect counts produced mean estimates of abundance similar to those from strip-transects but was generally more precise. However, both survey methods produced biologically unrealistic variability between years. State-space modeling of the long-term time series of abundances obtained from strip-transect counts effectively reduced uncertainty in both within- and between-year estimates of population size, and allowed short-term changes in abundance trajectories to be smoothed into a long-term trend.

The Schaake shuffle: A method for reconstructing space-time variability in forecasted precipitation and temperature fields

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clark, M.R.; Gangopadhyay, S.; Hay, L.; Rajagopalan, B.; Wilby, R.

2004-01-01

A number of statistical methods that are used to provide local-scale ensemble forecasts of precipitation and temperature do not contain realistic spatial covariability between neighboring stations or realistic temporal persistence for subsequent forecast lead times. To demonstrate this point, output from a global-scale numerical weather prediction model is used in a stepwise multiple linear regression approach to downscale precipitation and temperature to individual stations located in and around four study basins in the United States. Output from the forecast model is downscaled for lead times up to 14 days. Residuals in the regression equation are modeled stochastically to provide 100 ensemble forecasts. The precipitation and temperature ensembles from this approach have a poor representation of the spatial variability and temporal persistence. The spatial correlations for downscaled output are considerably lower than observed spatial correlations at short forecast lead times (e.g., less than 5 days) when there is high accuracy in the forecasts. At longer forecast lead times, the downscaled spatial correlations are close to zero. Similarly, the observed temporal persistence is only partly present at short forecast lead times. A method is presented for reordering the ensemble output in order to recover the space-time variability in precipitation and temperature fields. In this approach, the ensemble members for a given forecast day are ranked and matched with the rank of precipitation and temperature data from days randomly selected from similar dates in the historical record. The ensembles are then reordered to correspond to the original order of the selection of historical data. Using this approach, the observed intersite correlations, intervariable correlations, and the observed temporal persistence are almost entirely recovered. This reordering methodology also has applications for recovering the space-time variability in modeled streamflow. ?? 2004 American Meteorological Society.

Brain Signal Variability is Parametrically Modifiable

PubMed Central

Garrett, Douglas D.; McIntosh, Anthony R.; Grady, Cheryl L.

2014-01-01

Moment-to-moment brain signal variability is a ubiquitous neural characteristic, yet remains poorly understood. Evidence indicates that heightened signal variability can index and aid efficient neural function, but it is not known whether signal variability responds to precise levels of environmental demand, or instead whether variability is relatively static. Using multivariate modeling of functional magnetic resonance imaging-based parametric face processing data, we show here that within-person signal variability level responds to incremental adjustments in task difficulty, in a manner entirely distinct from results produced by examining mean brain signals. Using mixed modeling, we also linked parametric modulations in signal variability with modulations in task performance. We found that difficulty-related reductions in signal variability predicted reduced accuracy and longer reaction times within-person; mean signal changes were not predictive. We further probed the various differences between signal variance and signal means by examining all voxels, subjects, and conditions; this analysis of over 2 million data points failed to reveal any notable relations between voxel variances and means. Our results suggest that brain signal variability provides a systematic task-driven signal of interest from which we can understand the dynamic function of the human brain, and in a way that mean signals cannot capture. PMID:23749875

Finite-Size Scaling Analysis of Binary Stochastic Processes and Universality Classes of Information Cascade Phase Transition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mori, Shintaro; Hisakado, Masato

2015-05-01

We propose a finite-size scaling analysis method for binary stochastic processes X(t) in { 0,1} based on the second moment correlation length ξ for the autocorrelation function C(t). The purpose is to clarify the critical properties and provide a new data analysis method for information cascades. As a simple model to represent the different behaviors of subjects in information cascade experiments, we assume that X(t) is a mixture of an independent random variable that takes 1 with probability q and a random variable that depends on the ratio z of the variables taking 1 among recent r variables. We consider two types of the probability f(z) that the latter takes 1: (i) analog [f(z) = z] and (ii) digital [f(z) = θ(z - 1/2)]. We study the universal functions of scaling for ξ and the integrated correlation time τ. For finite r, C(t) decays exponentially as a function of t, and there is only one stable renormalization group (RG) fixed point. In the limit r to ∞ , where X(t) depends on all the previous variables, C(t) in model (i) obeys a power law, and the system becomes scale invariant. In model (ii) with q ≠ 1/2, there are two stable RG fixed points, which correspond to the ordered and disordered phases of the information cascade phase transition with the critical exponents β = 1 and ν|| = 2.

Predictive factors in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma receiving sorafenib therapy using time-dependent receiver operating characteristic analysis.

PubMed

Nishikawa, Hiroki; Nishijima, Norihiro; Enomoto, Hirayuki; Sakamoto, Azusa; Nasu, Akihiro; Komekado, Hideyuki; Nishimura, Takashi; Kita, Ryuichi; Kimura, Toru; Iijima, Hiroko; Nishiguchi, Shuhei; Osaki, Yukio

2017-01-01

To investigate variables before sorafenib therapy on the clinical outcomes in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients receiving sorafenib and to further assess and compare the predictive performance of continuous parameters using time-dependent receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis. A total of 225 HCC patients were analyzed. We retrospectively examined factors related to overall survival (OS) and progression free survival (PFS) using univariate and multivariate analyses. Subsequently, we performed time-dependent ROC analysis of continuous parameters which were significant in the multivariate analysis in terms of OS and PFS. Total sum of area under the ROC in all time points (defined as TAAT score) in each case was calculated. Our cohort included 175 male and 50 female patients (median age, 72 years) and included 158 Child-Pugh A and 67 Child-Pugh B patients. The median OS time was 0.68 years, while the median PFS time was 0.24 years. On multivariate analysis, gender, body mass index (BMI), Child-Pugh classification, extrahepatic metastases, tumor burden, aspartate aminotransferase (AST) and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) were identified as significant predictors of OS and ECOG-performance status, Child-Pugh classification and extrahepatic metastases were identified as significant predictors of PFS. Among three continuous variables (i.e., BMI, AST and AFP), AFP had the highest TAAT score for the entire cohort. In subgroup analyses, AFP had the highest TAAT score except for Child-Pugh B and female among three continuous variables. In continuous variables, AFP could have higher predictive accuracy for survival in HCC patients undergoing sorafenib therapy.

[Educational Inequality in Physical Inactivity in Leisure Time in Spanish Adult Population: differences in Ten Years (2002-2012)].

PubMed

Maestre-Miquel, Clara; Regidor, Enrique; Cuthill, Fiona; Martínez, David

2015-01-01

Social inequality in health is an increasing phenomenon in the world. The aim was to compare in 2002 and 2012, the magnitude of inequalities in leisure-time physical inactivity by educational level in Spain, but also the trends in health perception, in physically inactive people. A cross-sectional study from the National Health Survey in Spain in 2002 (n=21,650) and 2012 (n=21,007). The population aged from 25 to 64 years. At the first stage, physical inactivity in leisure-time was the dependent variable, and educational level was the independent variable. At the second stage, self-perception of health in last 12 months was the dependent variable. Logistic regression was adjusted using other variables: age, marital status, employment status and social class of the head of the family. Prevalence of leisure time physical inactivity was in 2012, up to 53.9% (men) and 67.5% (women), in the group aged between 25-44 with primary education. It declined in all age and sex groups in 2012, compared to 2002 (down to 18.7 percentage points). More than three times inactive women in between those who have primary or less education: OR 3.27 (2.35-4.55) in 2012. Bad health perceived in women with less educational level comparing with those with higher education. It also has declined over time: OR 1.45 in 2002 to OR 1.91, in 2012 (45-64 aged group). Although the prevalence of physical inactivity has decreased, inequalities in such behavior have increased in 2012 respect 2002.

Time-Variable Gravity from Satellite Laser-Ranging: The Low-Degree Components and Their Connections with Geophysical/Climatic Changes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chao, Benjamin F.; Cox, Christopher M.

2004-01-01

Satellite laser-ranging (SLR) has been observing the tiny variations in Earth s global gravity for over 2 decades. The oblateness of the Earth's gravity field, J2, has been observed to undergo a secular decrease of J2 due mainly to the post-glacial rebound of the mantle. Sometime around 1998 this trend reversed quite suddenly. This reversal persisted until 2001, at which point the atmosphere-corrected time series appears to have reversed yet again towards normal. This anomaly signifies a large interannual change in global mass distribution. A number of possible causes have been considered, with oceanic mass redistribution as the leading candidate although other effects, such as glacial melting and core effects may be contributing. In fact, a strong correlation has been found between the J2 variability and the Pacific decadal oscillation. It is relatively more difficult to solve for corresponding signals in the shorter wavelength harmonics from the existing SLR-derived time variable gravity results, although it appears that geophysical fluid mass transport is being observed. For example, the recovered J3 time series shows remarkable agreement with NCEP-derived estimates of atmospheric gravity variations. Likewise, some of the non-zonal harmonic components have significant interannual signal that appears to be related to mass transport related to climatic effects such as El Nino Southern Oscillation. We will present recent updates on the J2 evolution, as well as a monthly time sequence of low-degree component map of the time-variable gravity complete through degree 4, and examine possible geophysical/climatic causes.

Factors associated with the income distribution of full-time physicians: a quantile regression approach.

PubMed

Shih, Ya-Chen Tina; Konrad, Thomas R

2007-10-01

Physician income is generally high, but quite variable; hence, physicians have divergent perspectives regarding health policy initiatives and market reforms that could affect their incomes. We investigated factors underlying the distribution of income within the physician population. Full-time physicians (N=10,777) from the restricted version of the 1996-1997 Community Tracking Study Physician Survey (CTS-PS), 1996 Area Resource File, and 1996 health maintenance organization penetration data. We conducted separate analyses for primary care physicians (PCPs) and specialists. We employed least square and quantile regression models to examine factors associated with physician incomes at the mean and at various points of the income distribution, respectively. We accounted for the complex survey design for the CTS-PS data using appropriate weighted procedures and explored endogeneity using an instrumental variables method. We detected widespread and subtle effects of many variables on physician incomes at different points (10th, 25th, 75th, and 90th percentiles) in the distribution that were undetected when employing regression estimations focusing on only the means or medians. Our findings show that the effects of managed care penetration are demonstrable at the mean of specialist incomes, but are more pronounced at higher levels. Conversely, a gender gap in earnings occurs at all levels of income of both PCPs and specialists, but is more pronounced at lower income levels. The quantile regression technique offers an analytical tool to evaluate policy effects beyond the means. A longitudinal application of this approach may enable health policy makers to identify winners and losers among segments of the physician workforce and assess how market dynamics and health policy initiatives affect the overall physician income distribution over various time intervals.

Relationship between strength, power, speed, and change of direction performance of female softball players.

PubMed

Nimphius, Sophia; McGuigan, Michael R; Newton, Robert U

2010-04-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate (a) the cross-sectional relationship of strength, power, and performance variables in trained female athletes and (b) determine if the relationship between these variables changes over the course of a season. Ten female softball players (age = 18.1 +/- 1.6 years, height = 166.5 +/- 8.9 cm, and weight = 72.4 +/- 10.8 kg) from a state Australian Institute of Sport softball team were tested for maximal lower body strength (one repetition maximum [1RM]), peak force (PF), peak velocity (PV), and peak power (PP) during jump squats unloaded and loaded, unloaded countermovement vertical jump height (VJH) 1 base and 2 base sprint performance and change of direction performance on dominant and nondominant sides. The testing sessions occurred pre, mid, and post a 20-week training period. Relationship between body weight (BW), relative strength (1RM/BW), VJH, relative PP, relative PF, PV, speed, and change of direction variables were assessed by Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient at each testing session. Significant relationships were found across all time points with BW, speed, and change of direction measures (r = 0.70-0.93) and relative strength and measures of speed and change of direction ability (r = -0.73-0.85). There were no significant relationships between VJH and any measure of performance at any time point. In conclusion, BW and relative strength have strong to very strong correlations with speed and change of direction ability, and these correlations remain consistent over the course of the season. However, it seems as if many relationships vary with time, and their relationships should therefore be investigated longitudinally to better determine if these cross-sectional relationships truly reflect a deterministic relationship.

Chandra X-ray Time-Domain Study of Alpha Centauri AB, Procyon, and their Environs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ayres, Thomas R.

2018-06-01

For more than a decade, Chandra X-ray Observatory has been monitoring the central AB binary (G2V+K1V) of the α Centauri triple system with semi-annual pointings, using the High-Resolution Camera. This study has been extended in recent years to the mid-F subgiant, Procyon. The main objective is to follow the coronal (T~1MK) activity variations of the three stars, analogous to the Sun's 11-year sunspot cycle. Tentative periods of 20 yr and 8 yr have been deduced for α Cen A and B, respectively; but so far Procyon has shown only a slow, very modest decline in count rate, which could well reflect a slight instrumental degradation rather than intrinsic behavior. The negligible high-energy variability of Procyon sits in stark contrast to the dramatic factor of several to ten changes in the X-ray luminosities of α Cen AB and the Sun over their respective cycles. Further, although sunlike α Cen A has been observed by successive generations of X-ray observatories for nearly four decades, albeit sporadically, there are key gaps in the coverage that affect the determination of the cycle period. In fact, the most recent pointings suggest a downturn in A's count rate that might be signaling a shorter, more solar-like cycle following a delayed minimum in the 2005--2010 time frame (perhaps an exaggerated version of the extended solar minimum between recent Cycles 23 and 24). Beyond the coronal cycles of the three stars, the sequence of periodic X-ray images represents a unique time-domain history concerning steady as well as variable sources in the two 30'x30' fields. The most conspicuous of the variable objects -- in the α Cen field -- will be described here.

Factors Associated with the Income Distribution of Full-Time Physicians: A Quantile Regression Approach

PubMed Central

Shih, Ya-Chen Tina; Konrad, Thomas R

2007-01-01

Objective Physician income is generally high, but quite variable; hence, physicians have divergent perspectives regarding health policy initiatives and market reforms that could affect their incomes. We investigated factors underlying the distribution of income within the physician population. Data Sources Full-time physicians (N=10,777) from the restricted version of the 1996–1997 Community Tracking Study Physician Survey (CTS-PS), 1996 Area Resource File, and 1996 health maintenance organization penetration data. Study Design We conducted separate analyses for primary care physicians (PCPs) and specialists. We employed least square and quantile regression models to examine factors associated with physician incomes at the mean and at various points of the income distribution, respectively. We accounted for the complex survey design for the CTS-PS data using appropriate weighted procedures and explored endogeneity using an instrumental variables method. Principal Findings We detected widespread and subtle effects of many variables on physician incomes at different points (10th, 25th, 75th, and 90th percentiles) in the distribution that were undetected when employing regression estimations focusing on only the means or medians. Our findings show that the effects of managed care penetration are demonstrable at the mean of specialist incomes, but are more pronounced at higher levels. Conversely, a gender gap in earnings occurs at all levels of income of both PCPs and specialists, but is more pronounced at lower income levels. Conclusions The quantile regression technique offers an analytical tool to evaluate policy effects beyond the means. A longitudinal application of this approach may enable health policy makers to identify winners and losers among segments of the physician workforce and assess how market dynamics and health policy initiatives affect the overall physician income distribution over various time intervals. PMID:17850525

Harmonic regression of Landsat time series for modeling attributes from national forest inventory data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, Barry T.; Knight, Joseph F.; McRoberts, Ronald E.

2018-03-01

Imagery from the Landsat Program has been used frequently as a source of auxiliary data for modeling land cover, as well as a variety of attributes associated with tree cover. With ready access to all scenes in the archive since 2008 due to the USGS Landsat Data Policy, new approaches to deriving such auxiliary data from dense Landsat time series are required. Several methods have previously been developed for use with finer temporal resolution imagery (e.g. AVHRR and MODIS), including image compositing and harmonic regression using Fourier series. The manuscript presents a study, using Minnesota, USA during the years 2009-2013 as the study area and timeframe. The study examined the relative predictive power of land cover models, in particular those related to tree cover, using predictor variables based solely on composite imagery versus those using estimated harmonic regression coefficients. The study used two common non-parametric modeling approaches (i.e. k-nearest neighbors and random forests) for fitting classification and regression models of multiple attributes measured on USFS Forest Inventory and Analysis plots using all available Landsat imagery for the study area and timeframe. The estimated Fourier coefficients developed by harmonic regression of tasseled cap transformation time series data were shown to be correlated with land cover, including tree cover. Regression models using estimated Fourier coefficients as predictor variables showed a two- to threefold increase in explained variance for a small set of continuous response variables, relative to comparable models using monthly image composites. Similarly, the overall accuracies of classification models using the estimated Fourier coefficients were approximately 10-20 percentage points higher than the models using the image composites, with corresponding individual class accuracies between six and 45 percentage points higher.

Doubly stochastic Poisson process models for precipitation at fine time-scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramesh, Nadarajah I.; Onof, Christian; Xie, Dichao

2012-09-01

This paper considers a class of stochastic point process models, based on doubly stochastic Poisson processes, in the modelling of rainfall. We examine the application of this class of models, a neglected alternative to the widely-known Poisson cluster models, in the analysis of fine time-scale rainfall intensity. These models are mainly used to analyse tipping-bucket raingauge data from a single site but an extension to multiple sites is illustrated which reveals the potential of this class of models to study the temporal and spatial variability of precipitation at fine time-scales.

Efficient SRAM yield optimization with mixture surrogate modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhongjian, Jiang; Zuochang, Ye; Yan, Wang

2016-12-01

Largely repeated cells such as SRAM cells usually require extremely low failure-rate to ensure a moderate chi yield. Though fast Monte Carlo methods such as importance sampling and its variants can be used for yield estimation, they are still very expensive if one needs to perform optimization based on such estimations. Typically the process of yield calculation requires a lot of SPICE simulation. The circuit SPICE simulation analysis accounted for the largest proportion of time in the process yield calculation. In the paper, a new method is proposed to address this issue. The key idea is to establish an efficient mixture surrogate model. The surrogate model is based on the design variables and process variables. This model construction method is based on the SPICE simulation to get a certain amount of sample points, these points are trained for mixture surrogate model by the lasso algorithm. Experimental results show that the proposed model is able to calculate accurate yield successfully and it brings significant speed ups to the calculation of failure rate. Based on the model, we made a further accelerated algorithm to further enhance the speed of the yield calculation. It is suitable for high-dimensional process variables and multi-performance applications.

Minimum and Maximum Times Required to Obtain Representative Suspended Sediment Samples

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gitto, A.; Venditti, J. G.; Kostaschuk, R.; Church, M. A.

2014-12-01

Bottle sampling is a convenient method of obtaining suspended sediment measurements for the development of sediment budgets. While these methods are generally considered to be reliable, recent analysis of depth-integrated sampling has identified considerable uncertainty in measurements of grain-size concentration between grain-size classes of multiple samples. Point-integrated bottle sampling is assumed to represent the mean concentration of suspended sediment but the uncertainty surrounding this method is not well understood. Here we examine at-a-point variability in velocity, suspended sediment concentration, grain-size distribution, and grain-size moments to determine if traditional point-integrated methods provide a representative sample of suspended sediment. We present continuous hour-long observations of suspended sediment from the sand-bedded portion of the Fraser River at Mission, British Columbia, Canada, using a LISST laser-diffraction instrument. Spectral analysis suggests that there are no statistically significant peak in energy density, suggesting the absence of periodic fluctuations in flow and suspended sediment. However, a slope break in the spectra at 0.003 Hz corresponds to a period of 5.5 minutes. This coincides with the threshold between large-scale turbulent eddies that scale with channel width/mean velocity and hydraulic phenomena related to channel dynamics. This suggests that suspended sediment samples taken over a period longer than 5.5 minutes incorporate variability that is larger scale than turbulent phenomena in this channel. Examination of 5.5-minute periods of our time series indicate that ~20% of the time a stable mean value of volumetric concentration is reached within 30 seconds, a typical bottle sample duration. In ~12% of measurements a stable mean was not reached over the 5.5 minute sample duration. The remaining measurements achieve a stable mean in an even distribution over the intervening interval.

A random sampling approach for robust estimation of tissue-to-plasma ratio from extremely sparse data.

PubMed

Chu, Hui-May; Ette, Ene I

2005-09-02

his study was performed to develop a new nonparametric approach for the estimation of robust tissue-to-plasma ratio from extremely sparsely sampled paired data (ie, one sample each from plasma and tissue per subject). Tissue-to-plasma ratio was estimated from paired/unpaired experimental data using independent time points approach, area under the curve (AUC) values calculated with the naïve data averaging approach, and AUC values calculated using sampling based approaches (eg, the pseudoprofile-based bootstrap [PpbB] approach and the random sampling approach [our proposed approach]). The random sampling approach involves the use of a 2-phase algorithm. The convergence of the sampling/resampling approaches was investigated, as well as the robustness of the estimates produced by different approaches. To evaluate the latter, new data sets were generated by introducing outlier(s) into the real data set. One to 2 concentration values were inflated by 10% to 40% from their original values to produce the outliers. Tissue-to-plasma ratios computed using the independent time points approach varied between 0 and 50 across time points. The ratio obtained from AUC values acquired using the naive data averaging approach was not associated with any measure of uncertainty or variability. Calculating the ratio without regard to pairing yielded poorer estimates. The random sampling and pseudoprofile-based bootstrap approaches yielded tissue-to-plasma ratios with uncertainty and variability. However, the random sampling approach, because of the 2-phase nature of its algorithm, yielded more robust estimates and required fewer replications. Therefore, a 2-phase random sampling approach is proposed for the robust estimation of tissue-to-plasma ratio from extremely sparsely sampled data.

Pointing to double-step visual stimuli from a standing position: motor corrections when the speed-accuracy trade-off is unexpectedly modified in-flight. A breakdown of the perception-action coupling.

PubMed

Fautrelle, L; Barbieri, G; Ballay, Y; Bonnetblanc, F

2011-10-27

The time required to complete a fast and accurate movement is a function of its amplitude and the target size. This phenomenon refers to the well known speed-accuracy trade-off. Some interpretations have suggested that the speed-accuracy trade-off is already integrated into the movement planning phase. More specifically, pointing movements may be planned to minimize the variance of the final hand position. However, goal-directed movements can be altered at any time, if for instance, the target location is changed during execution. Thus, one possible limitation of these interpretations may be that they underestimate feedback processes. To further investigate this hypothesis we designed an experiment in which the speed-accuracy trade-off was unexpectedly varied at the hand movement onset by modifying separately the target distance or size, or by modifying both of them simultaneously. These pointing movements were executed from an upright standing position. Our main results showed that the movement time increased when there was a change to the size or location of the target. In addition, the terminal variability of finger position did not change. In other words, it showed that the movement velocity is modulated according to the target size and distance during motor programming or during the final approach, independently of the final variability of the hand position. It suggests that when the speed-accuracy trade-off is unexpectedly modified, terminal feedbacks based on intermediate representations of the endpoint velocity are used to monitor and control the hand displacement. There is clearly no obvious perception-action coupling in this case but rather intermediate processing that may be involved. Copyright © 2011 IBRO. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS), an alternative for the analysis of time series].

PubMed

Vanegas, Jairo; Vásquez, Fabián

Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) is a non-parametric modelling method that extends the linear model, incorporating nonlinearities and interactions between variables. It is a flexible tool that automates the construction of predictive models: selecting relevant variables, transforming the predictor variables, processing missing values and preventing overshooting using a self-test. It is also able to predict, taking into account structural factors that might influence the outcome variable, thereby generating hypothetical models. The end result could identify relevant cut-off points in data series. It is rarely used in health, so it is proposed as a tool for the evaluation of relevant public health indicators. For demonstrative purposes, data series regarding the mortality of children under 5 years of age in Costa Rica were used, comprising the period 1978-2008. Copyright © 2016 SESPAS. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Gap-filling meteorological variables with Empirical Orthogonal Functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graf, Alexander

2017-04-01

Gap-filling or modelling surface-atmosphere fluxes critically depends on an, ideally continuous, availability of their meteorological driver variables, such as e.g. air temperature, humidity, radiation, wind speed and precipitation. Unlike for eddy-covariance-based fluxes, data gaps are not unavoidable for these measurements. Nevertheless, missing or erroneous data can occur in practice due to instrument or power failures, disturbance, and temporary sensor or station dismounting for e.g. agricultural management or maintenance. If stations with similar measurements are available nearby, using their data for imputation (i.e. estimating missing data) either directly, after an elevation correction or via linear regression, is usually preferred over linear interpolation or monthly mean diurnal cycles. The popular implementation of regional networks of (partly low-cost) stations increases both, the need and the potential, for such neighbour-based imputation methods. For repeated satellite imagery, Beckers and Rixen (2003) suggested an imputation method based on empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs). While exploiting the same linear relations between time series at different observation points as regression, it is able to use information from all observation points to simultaneously estimate missing data at all observation points, provided that never all observations are missing at the same time. Briefly, the method uses the ability of the first few EOFs of a data matrix to reconstruct a noise-reduced version of this matrix; iterating missing data points from an initial guess (the column-wise averages) to an optimal version determined by cross-validation. The poster presents and discusses lessons learned from adapting and applying this methodology to station data. Several years of 10-minute averages of air temperature, pressure and humidity, incoming shortwave, longwave and photosynthetically active radiation, wind speed and precipitation, measured by a regional (70 km by 20 km by 650 m elevation difference) network of 18 sites, were treated by various modifications of the method. The performance per variable and as a function of methodology, such as e.g. number of used EOFs and method to determine its optimum, period length and data transformation, is assessed by cross-validation. Beckers, J.-M., Rixen, M. (2003): EOF calculations and data filling from incomplete oceanographic datasets. J. Atmos. Ocean. Tech. 20, 1839-1856.

A predictive model for recurrence in patients with glottic cancer implemented in a mobile application for Android.

PubMed

Jover-Esplá, Ana Gabriela; Palazón-Bru, Antonio; Folgado-de la Rosa, David Manuel; Severá-Ferrándiz, Guillermo; Sancho-Mestre, Manuela; de Juan-Herrero, Joaquín; Gil-Guillén, Vicente Francisco

2018-05-01

The existing predictive models of laryngeal cancer recurrence present limitations for clinical practice. Therefore, we constructed, internally validated and implemented in a mobile application (Android) a new model based on a points system taking into account the internationally recommended statistical methodology. This longitudinal prospective study included 189 patients with glottic cancer in 2004-2016 in a Spanish region. The main variable was time-to-recurrence, and its potential predictors were: age, gender, TNM classification, stage, smoking, alcohol consumption, and histology. A points system was developed to predict five-year risk of recurrence based on a Cox model. This was validated internally by bootstrapping, determining discrimination (C-statistics) and calibration (smooth curves). A total of 77 patients presented recurrence (40.7%) in a mean follow-up period of 3.4 ± 3.0 years. The factors in the model were: age, lymph node stage, alcohol consumption and stage. Discrimination and calibration were satisfactory. A points system was developed to obtain the probability of recurrence of laryngeal glottic cancer in five years, using five clinical variables. Our system should be validated externally in other geographical areas. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Point process modeling and estimation: Advances in the analysis of dynamic neural spiking data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, Xinyi

2016-08-01

A common interest of scientists in many fields is to understand the relationship between the dynamics of a physical system and the occurrences of discrete events within such physical system. Seismologists study the connection between mechanical vibrations of the Earth and the occurrences of earthquakes so that future earthquakes can be better predicted. Astrophysicists study the association between the oscillating energy of celestial regions and the emission of photons to learn the Universe's various objects and their interactions. Neuroscientists study the link between behavior and the millisecond-timescale spike patterns of neurons to understand higher brain functions. Such relationships can often be formulated within the framework of state-space models with point process observations. The basic idea is that the dynamics of the physical systems are driven by the dynamics of some stochastic state variables and the discrete events we observe in an interval are noisy observations with distributions determined by the state variables. This thesis proposes several new methodological developments that advance the framework of state-space models with point process observations at the intersection of statistics and neuroscience. In particular, we develop new methods 1) to characterize the rhythmic spiking activity using history-dependent structure, 2) to model population spike activity using marked point process models, 3) to allow for real-time decision making, and 4) to take into account the need for dimensionality reduction for high-dimensional state and observation processes. We applied these methods to a novel problem of tracking rhythmic dynamics in the spiking of neurons in the subthalamic nucleus of Parkinson's patients with the goal of optimizing placement of deep brain stimulation electrodes. We developed a decoding algorithm that can make decision in real-time (for example, to stimulate the neurons or not) based on various sources of information present in population spiking data. Lastly, we proposed a general three-step paradigm that allows us to relate behavioral outcomes of various tasks to simultaneously recorded neural activity across multiple brain areas, which is a step towards closed-loop therapies for psychological diseases using real-time neural stimulation. These methods are suitable for real-time implementation for content-based feedback experiments.

Lack of Critical Slowing Down Suggests that Financial Meltdowns Are Not Critical Transitions, yet Rising Variability Could Signal Systemic Risk.

PubMed

Guttal, Vishwesha; Raghavendra, Srinivas; Goel, Nikunj; Hoarau, Quentin

2016-01-01

Complex systems inspired analysis suggests a hypothesis that financial meltdowns are abrupt critical transitions that occur when the system reaches a tipping point. Theoretical and empirical studies on climatic and ecological dynamical systems have shown that approach to tipping points is preceded by a generic phenomenon called critical slowing down, i.e. an increasingly slow response of the system to perturbations. Therefore, it has been suggested that critical slowing down may be used as an early warning signal of imminent critical transitions. Whether financial markets exhibit critical slowing down prior to meltdowns remains unclear. Here, our analysis reveals that three major US (Dow Jones Index, S&P 500 and NASDAQ) and two European markets (DAX and FTSE) did not exhibit critical slowing down prior to major financial crashes over the last century. However, all markets showed strong trends of rising variability, quantified by time series variance and spectral function at low frequencies, prior to crashes. These results suggest that financial crashes are not critical transitions that occur in the vicinity of a tipping point. Using a simple model, we argue that financial crashes are likely to be stochastic transitions which can occur even when the system is far away from the tipping point. Specifically, we show that a gradually increasing strength of stochastic perturbations may have caused to abrupt transitions in the financial markets. Broadly, our results highlight the importance of stochastically driven abrupt transitions in real world scenarios. Our study offers rising variability as a precursor of financial meltdowns albeit with a limitation that they may signal false alarms.

E-waste collection in Italy: Results from an exploratory analysis.

PubMed

Favot, Marinella; Grassetti, Luca

2017-09-01

This study looks at the performance of household electrical and electronic waste (WEEE) collection in 20 Italian regions from 2008 to 2015. The impact of several explicative variables on the results of e-waste collection is evaluated. The independent variables are socio-economic and demographic ones (age, gender, household size, education level, migration and income) along with technical-organisational variables (population density, presence of metropoles, macro regions, characteristics of the territory, percentage of household waste collected separately and number of e-waste collection points). The results show that the presence of collection points, the percentage of household waste collected separately and the percentage of females are positively correlated with the kg collected per inhabitant per year. For example, a variation of 1% of input (presence of collection points) corresponds to a 0.25% variation in the output (collection results) while 1% difference in the percentage of females in the population corresponds to a 7.549% difference in the collection rate. Population density, instead, is negatively correlated. It is interesting to note that there is a discrepancy between the Southern regions and the Centre regions (the former have an outcome 0.66 times lower than the latter) while the Northern regions perform similarly to the Centre ones. Moreover, the first year (2008) had a very low performance compared to the following years when the scheme constantly improved, mainly due to the additional collection points available. The Stochastic Frontier Model allows for the identification of the optimal production function among the 20 Italian regions. The best performing region is Tuscany (in the Centre), followed by Sardinia and Sicily (in the South). Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Lack of Critical Slowing Down Suggests that Financial Meltdowns Are Not Critical Transitions, yet Rising Variability Could Signal Systemic Risk

PubMed Central

Hoarau, Quentin

2016-01-01

Complex systems inspired analysis suggests a hypothesis that financial meltdowns are abrupt critical transitions that occur when the system reaches a tipping point. Theoretical and empirical studies on climatic and ecological dynamical systems have shown that approach to tipping points is preceded by a generic phenomenon called critical slowing down, i.e. an increasingly slow response of the system to perturbations. Therefore, it has been suggested that critical slowing down may be used as an early warning signal of imminent critical transitions. Whether financial markets exhibit critical slowing down prior to meltdowns remains unclear. Here, our analysis reveals that three major US (Dow Jones Index, S&P 500 and NASDAQ) and two European markets (DAX and FTSE) did not exhibit critical slowing down prior to major financial crashes over the last century. However, all markets showed strong trends of rising variability, quantified by time series variance and spectral function at low frequencies, prior to crashes. These results suggest that financial crashes are not critical transitions that occur in the vicinity of a tipping point. Using a simple model, we argue that financial crashes are likely to be stochastic transitions which can occur even when the system is far away from the tipping point. Specifically, we show that a gradually increasing strength of stochastic perturbations may have caused to abrupt transitions in the financial markets. Broadly, our results highlight the importance of stochastically driven abrupt transitions in real world scenarios. Our study offers rising variability as a precursor of financial meltdowns albeit with a limitation that they may signal false alarms. PMID:26761792

Accuracy of heart rate variability estimation by photoplethysmography using an smartphone: Processing optimization and fiducial point selection.

PubMed

Ferrer-Mileo, V; Guede-Fernandez, F; Fernandez-Chimeno, M; Ramos-Castro, J; Garcia-Gonzalez, M A

2015-08-01

This work compares several fiducial points to detect the arrival of a new pulse in a photoplethysmographic signal using the built-in camera of smartphones or a photoplethysmograph. Also, an optimization process for the signal preprocessing stage has been done. Finally we characterize the error produced when we use the best cutoff frequencies and fiducial point for smartphones and photopletysmograph and compare if the error of smartphones can be reasonably be explained by variations in pulse transit time. The results have revealed that the peak of the first derivative and the minimum of the second derivative of the pulse wave have the lowest error. Moreover, for these points, high pass filtering the signal between 0.1 to 0.8 Hz and low pass around 2.7 Hz or 3.5 Hz are the best cutoff frequencies. Finally, the error in smartphones is slightly higher than in a photoplethysmograph.

Relationship between team assists and win-loss record in The National Basketball Association.

PubMed

Melnick, M J

2001-04-01

Using research methodology for analysis of secondary data, statistical data for five National Basketball Association (NBA) seasons (1993-1994 to 1997-1998) were examined to test for a relationship between team assists (a behavioral measure of teamwork) and win-loss record. Rank-difference correlation indicated a significant relationship between the two variables, the coefficients ranging from .42 to .71. Team assist totals produced higher correlations with win-loss record than assist totals for the five players receiving the most playing time ("the starters"). A comparison of "assisted team points" and "unassisted team points" in relationship to win-loss record favored the former and strongly suggested that how a basketball team scores points is more important than the number of points it scores. These findings provide circumstantial support for the popular dictum in competitive team sports that "Teamwork Means Success-Work Together, Win Together."

Adolescent health-risk behavior and community disorder.

PubMed

Wiehe, Sarah E; Kwan, Mei-Po; Wilson, Jeff; Fortenberry, J Dennis

2013-01-01

Various forms of community disorder are associated with health outcomes but little is known about how dynamic context where an adolescent spends time relates to her health-related behaviors. Assess whether exposure to contexts associated with crime (as a marker of community disorder) correlates with self-reported health-related behaviors among adolescent girls. Girls (N = 52), aged 14-17, were recruited from a single geographic urban area and monitored for 1 week using a GPS-enabled cell phone. Adolescents completed an audio computer-assisted self-administered interview survey on substance use (cigarette, alcohol, or marijuana use) and sexual intercourse in the last 30 days. In addition to recorded home and school address, phones transmitted location data every 5 minutes (path points). Using ArcGIS, we defined community disorder as aggregated point-level Unified Crime Report data within a 200-meter Euclidian buffer from home, school and each path point. Using Stata, we analyzed how exposures to areas of higher crime prevalence differed among girls who reported each behavior or not. Participants lived and spent time in areas with variable crime prevalence within 200 meters of their home, school and path points. Significant differences in exposure occurred based on home location among girls who reported any substance use or not (p 0.04) and sexual intercourse or not (p 0.01). Differences in exposure by school and path points were only significant among girls reporting any substance use or not (p 0.03 and 0.02, respectively). Exposure also varied by school/non-school day as well as time of day. Adolescent travel patterns are not random. Furthermore, the crime context where an adolescent spends time relates to her health-related behavior. These data may guide policy relating to crime control and inform time- and space-specific interventions to improve adolescent health.

PolyWaTT: A polynomial water travel time estimator based on Derivative Dynamic Time Warping and Perceptually Important Points

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Claure, Yuri Navarro; Matsubara, Edson Takashi; Padovani, Carlos; Prati, Ronaldo Cristiano

2018-03-01

Traditional methods for estimating timing parameters in hydrological science require a rigorous study of the relations of flow resistance, slope, flow regime, watershed size, water velocity, and other local variables. These studies are mostly based on empirical observations, where the timing parameter is estimated using empirically derived formulas. The application of these studies to other locations is not always direct. The locations in which equations are used should have comparable characteristics to the locations from which such equations have been derived. To overcome this barrier, in this work, we developed a data-driven approach to estimate timing parameters such as travel time. Our proposal estimates timing parameters using historical data of the location without the need of adapting or using empirical formulas from other locations. The proposal only uses one variable measured at two different locations on the same river (for instance, two river-level measurements, one upstream and the other downstream on the same river). The recorded data from each location generates two time series. Our method aligns these two time series using derivative dynamic time warping (DDTW) and perceptually important points (PIP). Using data from timing parameters, a polynomial function generalizes the data by inducing a polynomial water travel time estimator, called PolyWaTT. To evaluate the potential of our proposal, we applied PolyWaTT to three different watersheds: a floodplain ecosystem located in the part of Brazil known as Pantanal, the world's largest tropical wetland area; and the Missouri River and the Pearl River, in United States of America. We compared our proposal with empirical formulas and a data-driven state-of-the-art method. The experimental results demonstrate that PolyWaTT showed a lower mean absolute error than all other methods tested in this study, and for longer distances the mean absolute error achieved by PolyWaTT is three times smaller than empirical formulas.

A comparison of multiple imputation methods for handling missing values in longitudinal data in the presence of a time-varying covariate with a non-linear association with time: a simulation study.

PubMed

De Silva, Anurika Priyanjali; Moreno-Betancur, Margarita; De Livera, Alysha Madhu; Lee, Katherine Jane; Simpson, Julie Anne

2017-07-25

Missing data is a common problem in epidemiological studies, and is particularly prominent in longitudinal data, which involve multiple waves of data collection. Traditional multiple imputation (MI) methods (fully conditional specification (FCS) and multivariate normal imputation (MVNI)) treat repeated measurements of the same time-dependent variable as just another 'distinct' variable for imputation and therefore do not make the most of the longitudinal structure of the data. Only a few studies have explored extensions to the standard approaches to account for the temporal structure of longitudinal data. One suggestion is the two-fold fully conditional specification (two-fold FCS) algorithm, which restricts the imputation of a time-dependent variable to time blocks where the imputation model includes measurements taken at the specified and adjacent times. To date, no study has investigated the performance of two-fold FCS and standard MI methods for handling missing data in a time-varying covariate with a non-linear trajectory over time - a commonly encountered scenario in epidemiological studies. We simulated 1000 datasets of 5000 individuals based on the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children (LSAC). Three missing data mechanisms: missing completely at random (MCAR), and a weak and a strong missing at random (MAR) scenarios were used to impose missingness on body mass index (BMI) for age z-scores; a continuous time-varying exposure variable with a non-linear trajectory over time. We evaluated the performance of FCS, MVNI, and two-fold FCS for handling up to 50% of missing data when assessing the association between childhood obesity and sleep problems. The standard two-fold FCS produced slightly more biased and less precise estimates than FCS and MVNI. We observed slight improvements in bias and precision when using a time window width of two for the two-fold FCS algorithm compared to the standard width of one. We recommend the use of FCS or MVNI in a similar longitudinal setting, and when encountering convergence issues due to a large number of time points or variables with missing values, the two-fold FCS with exploration of a suitable time window.

Spatio-temporal Variability of Albedo and its Impact on Glacier Melt Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kinnard, C.; Mendoza, C.; Abermann, J.; Petlicki, M.; MacDonell, S.; Urrutia, R.

2017-12-01

Albedo is an important variable for the surface energy balance of glaciers, yet its representation within distributed glacier mass-balance models is often greatly simplified. Here we study the spatio-temporal evolution of albedo on Glacier Universidad, central Chile (34°S, 70°W), using time-lapse terrestrial photography, and investigate its effect on the shortwave radiation balance and modelled melt rates. A 12 megapixel digital single-lens reflex camera was setup overlooking the glacier and programmed to take three daily images of the glacier during a two-year period (2012-2014). One image was chosen for each day with no cloud shading on the glacier. The RAW images were projected onto a 10m resolution digital elevation model (DEM), using the IMGRAFT software (Messerli and Grinsted, 2015). A six-parameter camera model was calibrated using a single image and a set of 17 ground control points (GCPs), yielding a georeferencing accuracy of <1 pixel in image coordinates. The camera rotation was recalibrated for new images based on a set of common tie points over stable terrain, thus accounting for possible camera movement over time. The reflectance values from the projected image were corrected for topographic and atmospheric influences using a parametric solar irradiation model, following a modified algorithm based on Corripio (2004), and then converted to albedo using reference albedo measurements from an on-glacier automatic weather station (AWS). The image-based albedo was found to compare well with independent albedo observations from a second AWS in the glacier accumulation area. Analysis of the albedo maps showed that the albedo is more spatially-variable than the incoming solar radiation, making albedo a more important factor of energy balance spatial variability. The incorporation of albedo maps within an enhanced temperature index melt model revealed that the spatio-temporal variability of albedo is an important factor for the calculation of glacier-wide meltwater fluxes.

HEATING 7. 1 user's manual

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Childs, K.W.

1991-07-01

HEATING is a FORTRAN program designed to solve steady-state and/or transient heat conduction problems in one-, two-, or three- dimensional Cartesian, cylindrical, or spherical coordinates. A model may include multiple materials, and the thermal conductivity, density, and specific heat of each material may be both time- and temperature-dependent. The thermal conductivity may be anisotropic. Materials may undergo change of phase. Thermal properties of materials may be input or may be extracted from a material properties library. Heating generation rates may be dependent on time, temperature, and position, and boundary temperatures may be time- and position-dependent. The boundary conditions, which maymore » be surface-to-boundary or surface-to-surface, may be specified temperatures or any combination of prescribed heat flux, forced convection, natural convection, and radiation. The boundary condition parameters may be time- and/or temperature-dependent. General graybody radiation problems may be modeled with user-defined factors for radiant exchange. The mesh spacing may be variable along each axis. HEATING is variably dimensioned and utilizes free-form input. Three steady-state solution techniques are available: point-successive-overrelaxation iterative method with extrapolation, direct-solution (for one-dimensional or two-dimensional problems), and conjugate gradient. Transient problems may be solved using one of several finite-difference schemes: Crank-Nicolson implicit, Classical Implicit Procedure (CIP), Classical Explicit Procedure (CEP), or Levy explicit method (which for some circumstances allows a time step greater than the CEP stability criterion). The solution of the system of equations arising from the implicit techniques is accomplished by point-successive-overrelaxation iteration and includes procedures to estimate the optimum acceleration parameter.« less

Vagal-dependent nonlinear variability in the respiratory pattern of anesthetized, spontaneously breathing rats

PubMed Central

Dhingra, R. R.; Jacono, F. J.; Fishman, M.; Loparo, K. A.; Rybak, I. A.

2011-01-01

Physiological rhythms, including respiration, exhibit endogenous variability associated with health, and deviations from this are associated with disease. Specific changes in the linear and nonlinear sources of breathing variability have not been investigated. In this study, we used information theory-based techniques, combined with surrogate data testing, to quantify and characterize the vagal-dependent nonlinear pattern variability in urethane-anesthetized, spontaneously breathing adult rats. Surrogate data sets preserved the amplitude distribution and linear correlations of the original data set, but nonlinear correlation structure in the data was removed. Differences in mutual information and sample entropy between original and surrogate data sets indicated the presence of deterministic nonlinear or stochastic non-Gaussian variability. With vagi intact (n = 11), the respiratory cycle exhibited significant nonlinear behavior in templates of points separated by time delays ranging from one sample to one cycle length. After vagotomy (n = 6), even though nonlinear variability was reduced significantly, nonlinear properties were still evident at various time delays. Nonlinear deterministic variability did not change further after subsequent bilateral microinjection of MK-801, an N-methyl-d-aspartate receptor antagonist, in the Kölliker-Fuse nuclei. Reversing the sequence (n = 5), blocking N-methyl-d-aspartate receptors bilaterally in the dorsolateral pons significantly decreased nonlinear variability in the respiratory pattern, even with the vagi intact, and subsequent vagotomy did not change nonlinear variability. Thus both vagal and dorsolateral pontine influences contribute to nonlinear respiratory pattern variability. Furthermore, breathing dynamics of the intact system are mutually dependent on vagal and pontine sources of nonlinear complexity. Understanding the structure and modulation of variability provides insight into disease effects on respiratory patterning. PMID:21527661

Application of fluorescence spectroscopy for on-line bioprocess monitoring and control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boehl, Daniela; Solle, D.; Toussaint, Hans J.; Menge, M.; Renemann, G.; Lindemann, Carsten; Hitzmann, Bernd; Scheper, Thomas-Helmut

2001-02-01

12 Modern bioprocess control requires fast data acquisition and in-time evaluation of bioprocess variables. On-line fluorescence spectroscopy for data acquisition and the use of chemometric methods accomplish these requirements. The presented investigations were performed with fluorescence spectrometers with wide ranges of excitation and emission wavelength. By detection of several biogenic fluorophors (amino acids, coenzymes and vitamins) a large amount of information about the state of the bioprocess are obtained. For the evaluation of the process variables partial least squares regression is used. This technique was applied to several bioprocesses: the production of ergotamine by Claviceps purpurea, the production of t-PA (tissue plasminogen activator) by animal cells and brewing processes. The main point of monitoring the brewing processes was to determine the process variables cell count and extract concentration.

The Relationship between Baseline Drinking Status, Peer Motivational Interviewing Microskills, and Drinking Outcomes in a Brief Alcohol Intervention for Matriculating College Students: A Replication

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tollison, Sean J.; Mastroleo, Nadine R.; Mallett, Kimberly A.; Witkiewitz, Katie; Lee, Christine M.; Ray, Anne E.; Larimer, Mary E.

2013-01-01

The purpose of this study was to replicate and extend previous findings (Tollison et al., 2008) on the association between peer facilitator adherence to motivational interviewing (MI) microskills and college student drinking behavior. This study used a larger sample size, multiple follow-up time-points, and latent variable analyses allowing for…

Child involvement, alliance, and therapist flexibility: process variables in cognitive-behavioural therapy for anxiety disorders in childhood.

PubMed

Hudson, Jennifer L; Kendall, Philip C; Chu, Brian C; Gosch, Elizabeth; Martin, Erin; Taylor, Alan; Knight, Ashleigh

2014-01-01

This study examined the relations between treatment process variables and child anxiety outcomes. Independent raters watched/listened to taped therapy sessions of 151 anxiety-disordered (6-14 yr-old; M = 10.71) children (43% boys) and assessed process variables (child alliance, therapist alliance, child involvement, therapist flexibility and therapist functionality) within a manual-based cognitive-behavioural treatment. Latent growth modelling examined three latent variables (intercept, slope, and quadratic) for each process variable. Child age, gender, family income and ethnicity were examined as potential antecedents. Outcome was analyzed using factorially derived clinician, mother, father, child and teacher scores from questionnaire and structured diagnostic interviews at pretreatment, posttreatment and 12-month follow-up. Latent growth models demonstrated a concave quadratic curve for child involvement and therapist flexibility over time. A predominantly linear, downward slope was observed for alliance, and functional flexibility remained consistent over time. Increased alliance, child involvement and therapist flexibility showed some albeit inconsistent, associations with positive treatment outcome. Findings support the notion that maintaining the initial high level of alliance or involvement is important for clinical improvement. There is some support that progressively increasing alliance/involvement also positively impacts on treatment outcome. These findings were not consistent across outcome measurement points or reporters. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Integration of electromagnetic induction sensor data in soil sampling scheme optimization using simulated annealing.

PubMed

Barca, E; Castrignanò, A; Buttafuoco, G; De Benedetto, D; Passarella, G

2015-07-01

Soil survey is generally time-consuming, labor-intensive, and costly. Optimization of sampling scheme allows one to reduce the number of sampling points without decreasing or even increasing the accuracy of investigated attribute. Maps of bulk soil electrical conductivity (EC a ) recorded with electromagnetic induction (EMI) sensors could be effectively used to direct soil sampling design for assessing spatial variability of soil moisture. A protocol, using a field-scale bulk EC a survey, has been applied in an agricultural field in Apulia region (southeastern Italy). Spatial simulated annealing was used as a method to optimize spatial soil sampling scheme taking into account sampling constraints, field boundaries, and preliminary observations. Three optimization criteria were used. the first criterion (minimization of mean of the shortest distances, MMSD) optimizes the spreading of the point observations over the entire field by minimizing the expectation of the distance between an arbitrarily chosen point and its nearest observation; the second criterion (minimization of weighted mean of the shortest distances, MWMSD) is a weighted version of the MMSD, which uses the digital gradient of the grid EC a data as weighting function; and the third criterion (mean of average ordinary kriging variance, MAOKV) minimizes mean kriging estimation variance of the target variable. The last criterion utilizes the variogram model of soil water content estimated in a previous trial. The procedures, or a combination of them, were tested and compared in a real case. Simulated annealing was implemented by the software MSANOS able to define or redesign any sampling scheme by increasing or decreasing the original sampling locations. The output consists of the computed sampling scheme, the convergence time, and the cooling law, which can be an invaluable support to the process of sampling design. The proposed approach has found the optimal solution in a reasonable computation time. The use of bulk EC a gradient as an exhaustive variable, known at any node of an interpolation grid, has allowed the optimization of the sampling scheme, distinguishing among areas with different priority levels.

Smooth random change point models.

PubMed

van den Hout, Ardo; Muniz-Terrera, Graciela; Matthews, Fiona E

2011-03-15

Change point models are used to describe processes over time that show a change in direction. An example of such a process is cognitive ability, where a decline a few years before death is sometimes observed. A broken-stick model consists of two linear parts and a breakpoint where the two lines intersect. Alternatively, models can be formulated that imply a smooth change between the two linear parts. Change point models can be extended by adding random effects to account for variability between subjects. A new smooth change point model is introduced and examples are presented that show how change point models can be estimated using functions in R for mixed-effects models. The Bayesian inference using WinBUGS is also discussed. The methods are illustrated using data from a population-based longitudinal study of ageing, the Cambridge City over 75 Cohort Study. The aim is to identify how many years before death individuals experience a change in the rate of decline of their cognitive ability. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Methane Seeps in the Gulf of Mexico: repeat acoustic surveying shows highly temporally and spatially variable venting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beaumont, B. C.; Raineault, N.

2016-02-01

Scientists have recognized that natural seeps account for a large amount of methane emissions. Despite their widespread occurrence in areas like the Gulf of Mexico, little is known about the temporal variability and site-scale spatial variability of venting over time. We used repeat acoustic surveys to compare multiple days of seep activity and determine the changes in the locus of methane emission and plume height. The Sleeping Dragon site was surveyed with an EM302 multibeam sonar on three consecutive days in 2014 and 4 days within one week in 2015. The data revealed three distinctive plume regions. The locus of venting varied by 10-60 meters at each site. The plume that exhibited the least spatial variability in venting, was also the most temporally variable. This seep was present in one-third of survey dates in 2014 and three quarters of survey dates in 2015, showing high day-to-day variability. The plume height was very consistent for this plume, whereas the other plumes were more consistent temporally, but varied in maximum plume height detection by 25-85 m. The single locus of emission at the site that had high day-to-day variability may be due to a single conduit for methane release, which is sometimes closed off by carbonate or clathrate hydrate formation. In addition to day-to-day temporal variability, the locus of emission at one site was observed to shift from a point-source in 2014 to a diffuse source in 2015 at a nearby location. ROV observations showed that one of the seep sites that closed off temporarily, experienced an explosive breakthrough of gas, releasing confined methane and blowing out rock. The mechanism that causes on/off behavior of certain plumes, combined with the spatial variability of the locus of methane release shown in this study may point to carbonate or hydrate formation in the seep plumbing system and should be further investigated.

Environmental links to interannual variability in shellfish toxicity in Cobscook Bay and eastern Maine, a strongly tidally mixed coastal region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horecka, Hannah M.; Thomas, Andrew C.; Weatherbee, Ryan A.

2014-05-01

The Gulf of Maine experiences annual closures of shellfish harvesting due to the accumulation of toxins produced by dinoflagellates of the genus Alexandrium. Factors controlling the timing, location, and magnitude of these events in eastern Maine remain poorly understood. Previous work identified possible linkages between interannual variability of oceanographic variables and shellfish toxicity along the western Maine coastline but no such linkages were evident along the eastern Maine coast in the vicinity of Cobscook Bay, where strong tidal mixing tends to reduce seasonal variability in oceanographic properties. Using 21 years (1985-2005) of shellfish toxicity data, interannual variability in two metrics of annual toxicity, maximum magnitude and total annual toxicity, from stations in the Cobscook Bay region are examined for relationships to a suite of available environmental variables. Consistent with earlier work, no (or only weak) correlations were found between toxicity and oceanographic variables, even those very proximate to the stations such as local sea surface temperature. Similarly no correlations were evident between toxicity and air temperature, precipitation or relative humidity. The data suggest possible connections to local river discharge, but plausible mechanisms are not obvious. Correlations between toxicity and two variables indicative of local meteorological conditions, dew point and atmospheric pressure, both suggest a link between increased toxicity in these eastern Maine stations and weather conditions characterized by clearer skies/drier air (or less stormy/humid conditions). As no correlation of opposite sign was evident between toxicity and local precipitation, one plausible link is through light availability and its positive impact on phytoplankton production in this persistently foggy section of coast. These preliminary findings point to both the value of maintaining long-term shellfish toxicity sampling and a need for inclusion of weather variability in future modeling studies aimed at development of a more mechanistic understanding of factors controlling interannual differences in eastern Gulf of Maine shellfish toxicity.

Characterization and evaluation of an aeolian-photovoltaic system in operation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonfatti, F.; Calzolari, P. U.; Cardinali, G. C.; Vivanti, G.; Zani, A.

Data management, analysis techniques and results of performance monitoring of a prototype combined photovoltaic (PV)-wind turbine farm power plant in northern Italy are reported. Emphasis is placed on the PV I-V characteristics and irradiance and cell temperatures. Automated instrumentation monitors and records meteorological data and generator variables such as voltages, currents, output, battery electrolyte temperature, etc. Analysis proceeds by automated selection of I-V data for specific intervals of the year when other variables can be treated as constants. The technique permits characterization of generator performance, adjusting the power plant set points for optimal output, and tracking performance degradation over time.

Observations of the sun, an ultraviolet variable star

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Heath, D. F.

1972-01-01

The uncertainty as to whether or not the sun is a variable star in that region of the ultraviolet which is absorbed in the mesosphere and stratosphere led to an experiment with acronym MUSE, Monitor of Ultraviolet Solar Energy. The experiment was first flown on an Aerobee rocket in August 1966 and subsequently on Nimbus 3 and 4 in April 1969 and April 1970 respectively. The basic philosophy behind the design of the experiment was to provide an instrument which would not require a solar pointing mechanism and at the same time would be capable of high radiometric accuracy for long periods in space.

Optimal orbit transfer suitable for large flexible structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chatterjee, Alok K.

1989-01-01

The problem of continuous low-thrust planar orbit transfer of large flexible structures is formulated as an optimal control problem with terminal state constraints. The dynamics of the spacecraft motion are treated as a point-mass central force field problem; the thrust-acceleration magnitude is treated as an additional state variable; and the rate of change of thrust-acceleration is treated as a control variable. To ensure smooth transfer, essential for flexible structures, an additional quadratic term is appended to the time cost functional. This term penalizes any abrupt change in acceleration. Numerical results are presented for the special case of a planar transfer.

Variations in non-prescription drug consumption and expenditure: Determinants and policy implications.

PubMed

Otto, Monica; Armeni, Patrizio; Jommi, Claudio

2018-01-31

This paper analyses the determinants of cross-regional variations in expenditure and consumption for non-prescription drugs using the Italian Health Care Service as a case study. This research question has never been posed in other literature contributions. Per capita income, the incidence of elderly people, the presence of distribution points alternative to community pharmacies (para-pharmacies and drug corners in supermarkets), and the disease prevalence were included as possible explanatory variables. A trade-off between consumption of non-prescription and prescription-only drugs was also investigated. Correlation was tested through linear regression models with regional fixed-effects. Demand-driven variables, including the prevalence of the target diseases and income, were found to be more influential than supply-side variables, such as the presence of alternative distribution points. Hence, the consumption of non-prescription drugs appears to respond to needs and is not induced by the supply. The expected trade-off between consumption for prescription-only and non-prescription drugs was not empirically found: increasing the use of non-prescription drugs did not automatically imply savings on prescription-only drugs covered by third payers. Despite some caveats (the short period of time covered by the longitudinal data and some missing monthly data), the regression model revealed a high explanatory power of the variability and a strong predictive ability of future values. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Application of square-root filtering for spacecraft attitude control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sorensen, J. A.; Schmidt, S. F.; Goka, T.

1978-01-01

Suitable digital algorithms are developed and tested for providing on-board precision attitude estimation and pointing control for potential use in the Landsat-D spacecraft. These algorithms provide pointing accuracy of better than 0.01 deg. To obtain necessary precision with efficient software, a six state-variable square-root Kalman filter combines two star tracker measurements to update attitude estimates obtained from processing three gyro outputs. The validity of the estimation and control algorithms are established, and the sensitivity of their performance to various error sources and software parameters are investigated by detailed digital simulation. Spacecraft computer memory, cycle time, and accuracy requirements are estimated.

Extrapolation of Functions of Many Variables by Means of Metric Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kryanev, Alexandr; Ivanov, Victor; Romanova, Anastasiya; Sevastianov, Leonid; Udumyan, David

2018-02-01

The paper considers a problem of extrapolating functions of several variables. It is assumed that the values of the function of m variables at a finite number of points in some domain D of the m-dimensional space are given. It is required to restore the value of the function at points outside the domain D. The paper proposes a fundamentally new method for functions of several variables extrapolation. In the presented paper, the method of extrapolating a function of many variables developed by us uses the interpolation scheme of metric analysis. To solve the extrapolation problem, a scheme based on metric analysis methods is proposed. This scheme consists of two stages. In the first stage, using the metric analysis, the function is interpolated to the points of the domain D belonging to the segment of the straight line connecting the center of the domain D with the point M, in which it is necessary to restore the value of the function. In the second stage, based on the auto regression model and metric analysis, the function values are predicted along the above straight-line segment beyond the domain D up to the point M. The presented numerical example demonstrates the efficiency of the method under consideration.

Outcomes of Basic Versus Advanced Life Support for Out-of-Hospital Medical Emergencies.

PubMed

Sanghavi, Prachi; Jena, Anupam B; Newhouse, Joseph P; Zaslavsky, Alan M

2015-11-03

Most Medicare patients seeking emergency medical transport are treated by ambulance providers trained in advanced life support (ALS). Evidence supporting the superiority of ALS over basic life support (BLS) is limited, but some studies suggest ALS may harm patients. To compare outcomes after ALS and BLS in out-of-hospital medical emergencies. Observational study with adjustment for propensity score weights and instrumental variable analyses based on county-level variations in ALS use. Traditional Medicare. 20% random sample of Medicare beneficiaries from nonrural counties between 2006 and 2011 with major trauma, stroke, acute myocardial infarction (AMI), or respiratory failure. Neurologic functioning and survival to 30 days, 90 days, 1 year, and 2 years. Except in cases of AMI, patients showed superior unadjusted outcomes with BLS despite being older and having more comorbidities. In propensity score analyses, survival to 90 days among patients with trauma, stroke, and respiratory failure was higher with BLS than ALS (6.1 percentage points [95% CI, 5.4 to 6.8 percentage points] for trauma; 7.0 percentage points [CI, 6.2 to 7.7 percentage points] for stroke; and 3.7 percentage points [CI, 2.5 to 4.8 percentage points] for respiratory failure). Patients with AMI did not exhibit differences in survival at 30 days but had better survival at 90 days with ALS (1.0 percentage point [CI, 0.1 to 1.9 percentage points]). Neurologic functioning favored BLS for all diagnoses. Results from instrumental variable analyses were broadly consistent with propensity score analyses for trauma and stroke, showed no survival differences between BLS and ALS for respiratory failure, and showed better survival at all time points with BLS than ALS for patients with AMI. Only Medicare beneficiaries from nonrural counties were studied. Advanced life support is associated with substantially higher mortality for several acute medical emergencies than BLS. National Science Foundation, Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, and National Institutes of Health.

Spatiotemporal variability in wildfire patterns and analysis of the main drivers in Honduras using GIS and MODIS data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valdez Vasquez, M. C.; Chen, C. F.

2017-12-01

Wildfires are unrestrained fires in an area of flammable vegetation and they are one of the most frequent disasters in Honduras during the dry season. During this period, anthropogenic activity combined with the harsh climatic conditions, dry vegetation and topographical variables, cause a large amount of wildfires. For this reason, there is a need to identify the drivers of wildfires and their susceptibility variations during the wildfire season. In this study, we combined the wildfire points during the 2010-2016 period every 8 days with a series of variables using the random forest (RF) algorithm. In addition to the wildfire points, we randomly generated a similar amount of background points that we use as pseudo-absence data. To represent the human imprint, we included proximity to different types of roads, trails, settlements and agriculture sites. Other variables included are the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectra-radiometer (MODIS)-derived 8-day composites of land surface temperature (LST) and the normalized multi-band drought index (NMDI), derived from the MODIS surface reflectance data. We also included monthly average precipitation, solar radiation, and topographical variables. The exploratory analysis of the variables reveals that low precipitation combined with the low NMDI and accessibility to non-paved roads were the major drivers of wildfires during the early months of the dry season. During April, which is the peak of the dry season, the explanatory variables of relevance also included elevation and LST in addition to the proximity to paved and non-paved roads. During May, proximity to crops becomes relevant, in addition to the aforesaid variables. The average estimated area with high and very high wildfire susceptibility was 22% of the whole territory located mainly in the central and eastern regions, drifting towards the northeast areas during May. We validated the results using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) for each 8-day period, and the average AUC acquired was acceptable using an independent test data. We suggest that the 8-day frequency spatiotemporal mapping of wildfire patterns and the identification of the most relevant drivers can lead to localized prevention and control actions in specific time-frames in areas of high wildfire susceptibility.

Vascular Glucose Sensor Symposium: Continuous Glucose Monitoring Systems (CGMS) for Hospitalized and Ambulatory Patients at Risk for Hyperglycemia, Hypoglycemia, and Glycemic Variability.

PubMed

Joseph, Jeffrey I; Torjman, Marc C; Strasma, Paul J

2015-07-01

Hyperglycemia, hypoglycemia, and glycemic variability have been associated with increased morbidity, mortality, length of stay, and cost in a variety of critical care and non-critical care patient populations in the hospital. The results from prospective randomized clinical trials designed to determine the risks and benefits of intensive insulin therapy and tight glycemic control have been confusing; and at times conflicting. The limitations of point-of-care blood glucose (BG) monitoring in the hospital highlight the great clinical need for an automated real-time continuous glucose monitoring system (CGMS) that can accurately measure the concentration of glucose every few minutes. Automation and standardization of the glucose measurement process have the potential to significantly improve BG control, clinical outcome, safety and cost. © 2015 Diabetes Technology Society.

Nowcasting of Low-Visibility Procedure States with Ordered Logistic Regression at Vienna International Airport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kneringer, Philipp; Dietz, Sebastian; Mayr, Georg J.; Zeileis, Achim

2017-04-01

Low-visibility conditions have a large impact on aviation safety and economic efficiency of airports and airlines. To support decision makers, we develop a statistical probabilistic nowcasting tool for the occurrence of capacity-reducing operations related to low visibility. The probabilities of four different low visibility classes are predicted with an ordered logistic regression model based on time series of meteorological point measurements. Potential predictor variables for the statistical models are visibility, humidity, temperature and wind measurements at several measurement sites. A stepwise variable selection method indicates that visibility and humidity measurements are the most important model inputs. The forecasts are tested with a 30 minute forecast interval up to two hours, which is a sufficient time span for tactical planning at Vienna Airport. The ordered logistic regression models outperform persistence and are competitive with human forecasters.

Orbit and uncertainty propagation: a comparison of Gauss-Legendre-, Dormand-Prince-, and Chebyshev-Picard-based approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aristoff, Jeffrey M.; Horwood, Joshua T.; Poore, Aubrey B.

2014-01-01

We present a new variable-step Gauss-Legendre implicit-Runge-Kutta-based approach for orbit and uncertainty propagation, VGL-IRK, which includes adaptive step-size error control and which collectively, rather than individually, propagates nearby sigma points or states. The performance of VGL-IRK is compared to a professional (variable-step) implementation of Dormand-Prince 8(7) (DP8) and to a fixed-step, optimally-tuned, implementation of modified Chebyshev-Picard iteration (MCPI). Both nearly-circular and highly-elliptic orbits are considered using high-fidelity gravity models and realistic integration tolerances. VGL-IRK is shown to be up to eleven times faster than DP8 and up to 45 times faster than MCPI (for the same accuracy), in a serial computing environment. Parallelization of VGL-IRK and MCPI is also discussed.

Instructional versus schedule control of humans' choices in situations of diminishing returns

PubMed Central

Hackenberg, Timothy D.; Joker, Veronica R.

1994-01-01

Four adult humans chose repeatedly between a fixed-time schedule (of points later exchangeable for money) and a progressive-time schedule that began at 0 s and increased by a fixed number of seconds with each point delivered by that schedule. Each point delivered by the fixed-time schedule reset the requirements of the progressive-time schedule to its minimum value. Subjects were provided with instructions that specified a particular sequence of choices. Under the initial conditions, the instructions accurately specified the optimal choice sequence. Thus, control by instructions and optimal control by the programmed contingencies both supported the same performance. To distinguish the effects of instructions from schedule sensitivity, the correspondence between the instructed and optimal choice patterns was gradually altered across conditions by varying the step size of the progressive-time schedule while maintaining the same instructions. Step size was manipulated, typically in 1-s units, first in an ascending and then in a descending sequence of conditions. Instructions quickly established control in all 4 subjects but, by narrowing the range of choice patterns, they reduced subsequent sensitivity to schedule changes. Instructional control was maintained across the ascending sequence of progressive-time values for each subject, but eventually diminished, giving way to more schedule-appropriate patterns. The transition from instruction-appropriate to schedule-appropriate behavior was characterized by an increase in the variability of choice patterns and local increases in point density. On the descending sequence of progressive-time values, behavior appeared to be schedule sensitive, sometimes even optimally sensitive, but it did not always change systematically with the contingencies, suggesting the involvement of other factors. PMID:16812747

Spatial Representativeness of Surface-Measured Variations of Downward Solar Radiation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwarz, M.; Folini, D.; Hakuba, M. Z.; Wild, M.

2017-12-01

When using time series of ground-based surface solar radiation (SSR) measurements in combination with gridded data, the spatial and temporal representativeness of the point observations must be considered. We use SSR data from surface observations and high-resolution (0.05°) satellite-derived data to infer the spatiotemporal representativeness of observations for monthly and longer time scales in Europe. The correlation analysis shows that the squared correlation coefficients (R2) between SSR times series decrease linearly with increasing distance between the surface observations. For deseasonalized monthly mean time series, R2 ranges from 0.85 for distances up to 25 km between the stations to 0.25 at distances of 500 km. A decorrelation length (i.e., the e-folding distance of R2) on the order of 400 km (with spread of 100-600 km) was found. R2 from correlations between point observations and colocated grid box area means determined from satellite data were found to be 0.80 for a 1° grid. To quantify the error which arises when using a point observation as a surrogate for the area mean SSR of larger surroundings, we calculated a spatial sampling error (SSE) for a 1° grid of 8 (3) W/m2 for monthly (annual) time series. The SSE based on a 1° grid, therefore, is of the same magnitude as the measurement uncertainty. The analysis generally reveals that monthly mean (or longer temporally aggregated) point observations of SSR capture the larger-scale variability well. This finding shows that comparing time series of SSR measurements with gridded data is feasible for those time scales.

Fibromyalgia Outcomes Over Time: Results from a Prospective Observational Study in the United States

PubMed Central

Schaefer, Caroline P.; Adams, Edgar H.; Udall, Margarita; Masters, Elizabeth T.; Mann, Rachael M.; Daniel, Shoshana R.; McElroy, Heather J.; Cappelleri, Joseph C.; Clair, Andrew G.; Hopps, Markay; Staud, Roland; Mease, Philip; Silverman, Stuart L.

2016-01-01

Background: Longitudinal research on outcomes of patients with fibromyalgia is limited. Objective: To assess clinician and patient-reported outcomes over time among fibromyalgia patients. Methods: At enrollment (Baseline) and follow-up (approximately 2 years later), consented patients were screened for chronic widespread pain (CWP), attended a physician site visit to determine fibromyalgia status, and completed an online questionnaire assessing pain, sleep, function, health status, productivity, medications, and healthcare resource use. Results: Seventy-six fibromyalgia patients participated at both time points (at Baseline: 86.8% white, 89.5% female, mean age 50.9 years, and mean duration of fibromyalgia 4.1 years). Mean number of tender points at each physician visit was 14.1 and 13.5, respectively; 11 patients no longer screened positive for CWP at follow-up. A majority reported medication use for pain (59.2% at Baseline, 62.0% at Follow-up). The most common medication classes were opioids (32.4%), SSRIs (16.9%), and tramadol (14.1%) at Follow-up. Significant mean changes over time were observed for fibromyalgia symptoms (modified American College of Rheumatology 2010 criteria: 18.4 to 16.9; P=0.004), pain interference with function (Brief Pain Inventory-Short Form: 5.9 to 5.3; P=0.013), and sleep (Medical Outcomes Study-Sleep Scale: 58.3 to 52.7; P=0.004). Patients achieving ≥2 point improvement in pain (14.5%) experienced greater changes in pain interference with function (6.8 to 3.4; P=0.001) and sleep (62.4 to 51.0; P=0.061). Conclusion: Fibromyalgia patients reported high levels of burden at both time points, with few significant changes observed over time. Outcomes were variable among patients over time and were better among those with greater pain improvement. PMID:28077978

Genetic history of the population of Corsica (western Mediterranean) as inferred from autosomal STR analysis.

PubMed

Tofanelli, Sergio; Taglioli, Luca; Varesi, Laurent; Paoli, Giorgio

2004-04-01

To genetically reconstruct the demographic history of the human population of Corsica (western Mediterranean), we analyzed the variability at eight autosomal STR loci (FES, VWA, CSF1PO, TH01, F13A1, TPOX, CD4, and D3S1358) in a sample of 179 native blood donors from 4 out of the 5 administrative districts. The main line of genetic discontinuity inferred from the spatial distribution of STR variability overlapped the linguistic and geographic boundaries. In the innermost areas (Corte district) several estimators had larger stochastic effects on allele frequencies. Genetic distance measures underlying different evolutionary models all pointed to a higher variability within Corsicans than within the rest of the Mediterranean reference populations. All Corsican subsamples showed the highest distance with a pooled sample from central Sardinia, thus making recent gene flow between the two neighboring islands unlikely. Hierarchical AMOVA and distance-based multivariate genetic spaces stressed the closeness of Tuscan and Corsican frequency distributions, which could reflect peopling events with different time depths. Anyway, estimated separation times well support the linguistic hypothesis that Neolithic/Chalcolithic events have been far more important than Paleolithic or historical processes in the shaping of present Corsican variability.

Forecasting Global Point Rainfall using ECMWF's Ensemble Forecasting System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pillosu, Fatima; Hewson, Timothy; Zsoter, Ervin; Baugh, Calum

2017-04-01

ECMWF (the European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecasts), in collaboration with the EFAS (European Flood Awareness System) and GLOFAS (GLObal Flood Awareness System) teams, has developed a new operational system that post-processes grid box rainfall forecasts from its ensemble forecasting system to provide global probabilistic point-rainfall predictions. The project attains a higher forecasting skill by applying an understanding of how different rainfall generation mechanisms lead to different degrees of sub-grid variability in rainfall totals. In turn this approach facilitates identification of cases in which very localized extreme totals are much more likely. This approach aims also to improve the rainfall input required in different hydro-meteorological applications. Flash flood forecasting, in particular in urban areas, is a good example. In flash flood scenarios precipitation is typically characterised by high spatial variability and response times are short. In this case, to move beyond radar based now casting, the classical approach has been to use very high resolution hydro-meteorological models. Of course these models are valuable but they can represent only very limited areas, may not be spatially accurate and may give reasonable results only for limited lead times. On the other hand, our method aims to use a very cost-effective approach to downscale global rainfall forecasts to a point scale. It needs only rainfall totals from standard global reporting stations and forecasts over a relatively short period to train it, and it can give good results even up to day 5. For these reasons we believe that this approach better satisfies user needs around the world. This presentation aims to describe two phases of the project: The first phase, already completed, is the implementation of this new system to provide 6 and 12 hourly point-rainfall accumulation probabilities. To do this we use a limited number of physically relevant global model parameters (i.e. convective precipitation ratio, speed of steering winds, CAPE - Convective Available Potential Energy - and solar radiation), alongside the rainfall forecasts themselves, to define the "weather types" that in turn define the expected sub-grid variability. The calibration and computational strategy intrinsic to the system will be illustrated. The quality of the global point rainfall forecasts is also illustrated by analysing recent case studies in which extreme totals and a greatly elevated flash flood risk could be foreseen some days in advance but especially by a longer-term verification that arises out of retrospective global point rainfall forecasting for 2016. The second phase, currently in development, is focussing on the relationships with other relevant geographical aspects, for instance, orography and coastlines. Preliminary results will be presented. These are promising but need further study to fully understand their impact on the spatial distribution of point rainfall totals.

Adjustment to Acute Leukemia: The Impact of Social Support and Marital Satisfaction on Distress and Quality of Life Among Newly Diagnosed Patients and Their Caregivers.

PubMed

Pailler, Megan E; Johnson, Teresa M; Kuszczak, Sarah; Attwood, Kristopher M; Zevon, Michael A; Griffiths, Elizabeth; Thompson, James; Wang, Eunice S; Wetzler, Meir

2016-09-01

Little is known about the specific patterns of adjustment among newly diagnosed acute leukemia patients and their caregivers. This study examined the trajectories of patient and caregiver distress over time as well as the extent to which marital satisfaction and social support moderated these trajectories among those with significant-other caregivers. Forty six patient-caregiver dyads provided ratings at four time points: within 1 week of diagnosis (T1), 2 week follow-up (T2), 6 week follow-up (T3) and 12 week follow-up (T4). As anticipated, patients and caregivers reported higher levels of distress around the time of diagnosis than they did during subsequent time points. Marital satisfaction was a significant predictor of distress among patients, whereas among caregivers, social support predicted distress and quality of life. Results support the inclusion of relational variables such as social support and relationship satisfaction in the assessment of newly diagnosed patients and families in order to best identify those at risk for distress over time.

REVISITING EVIDENCE OF CHAOS IN X-RAY LIGHT CURVES: THE CASE OF GRS 1915+105

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mannattil, Manu; Gupta, Himanshu; Chakraborty, Sagar, E-mail: mmanu@iitk.ac.in, E-mail: hiugupta@iitk.ac.in, E-mail: sagarc@iitk.ac.in

2016-12-20

Nonlinear time series analysis has been widely used to search for signatures of low-dimensional chaos in light curves emanating from astrophysical bodies. A particularly popular example is the microquasar GRS 1915+105, whose irregular but systematic X-ray variability has been well studied using data acquired by the Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer . With a view to building simpler models of X-ray variability, attempts have been made to classify the light curves of GRS 1915+105 as chaotic or stochastic. Contrary to some of the earlier suggestions, after careful analysis, we find no evidence for chaos or determinism in any of the GRS 1915+105 classes. Themore » dearth of long and stationary data sets representing all the different variability classes of GRS 1915+105 makes it a poor candidate for analysis using nonlinear time series techniques. We conclude that either very exhaustive data analysis with sufficiently long and stationary light curves should be performed, keeping all the pitfalls of nonlinear time series analysis in mind, or alternative schemes of classifying the light curves should be adopted. The generic limitations of the techniques that we point out in the context of GRS 1915+105 affect all similar investigations of light curves from other astrophysical sources.« less

"Utstein style" spreadsheet and database programs based on Microsoft Excel and Microsoft Access software for CPR data management of in-hospital resuscitation.

PubMed

Adams, Bruce D; Whitlock, Warren L

2004-04-01

In 1997, The American Heart Association in association with representatives of the International Committee on Resuscitation (ILCOR) published recommended guidelines for reviewing, reporting and conducting in-hospital cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) outcomes using the "Utstein style". Using these guidelines, we developed two Microsoft Office based database management programs that may be useful to the resuscitation community. We developed a user-friendly spreadsheet based on MS Office Excel. The user enters patient variables such as name, age, and diagnosis. Then, event resuscitation variables such as time of collapse and CPR team arrival are entered from a "code flow sheet". Finally, outcome variables such as patient condition at different time points are recorded. The program then makes automatic calculations of average response times, survival rates and other important outcome measurements. Also using the Utstein style, we developed a database program based on MS Office Access. To promote free public access to these programs, we established at a website. These programs will help hospitals track, analyze, and present their CPR outcomes data. Clinical CPR researchers might also find the programs useful because they are easily modified and have statistical functions.

Factors Influencing the Sahelian Paradox at the Local Watershed Scale: Causal Inference Insights

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Gordon, M.; Groenke, A.; Larsen, L.

2017-12-01

While the existence of paradoxical rainfall-runoff and rainfall-groundwater correlations are well established in the West African Sahel, the hydrologic mechanisms involved are poorly understood. In pursuit of mechanistic explanations, we perform a causal inference analysis on hydrologic variables in three watersheds in Benin and Niger. Using an ensemble of techniques, we compute the strength of relationships between observational soil moisture, runoff, precipitation, and temperature data at seasonal and event timescales. Performing analysis over a range of time lags allows dominant time scales to emerge from the relationships between variables. By determining the time scales of hydrologic connectivity over vertical and lateral space, we show differences in the importance of overland and subsurface flow over the course of the rainy season and between watersheds. While previous work on the paradoxical hydrologic behavior in the Sahel focuses on surface processes and infiltration, our results point toward the importance of subsurface flow to rainfall-runoff relationships in these watersheds. The hypotheses generated from our ensemble approach suggest that subsequent explorations of mechanistic hydrologic processes in the region include subsurface flow. Further, this work highlights how an ensemble approach to causal analysis can reveal nuanced relationships between variables even in poorly understood hydrologic systems.

Prognostic indicators for dogs with dilated cardiomyopathy.

PubMed

Borgarelli, Michele; Santilli, Roberto A; Chiavegato, David; D'Agnolo, Gino; Zanatta, Renato; Mannelli, Alessandro; Tarducci, Alberto

2006-01-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate the prognostic value of various clinical, ECG, echocardiographic, and Doppler echocardiographic variables in dogs with dilated cardiomyopathy. The relationship to survival of 11 variables was evaluated in 63 dogs. Studied variables were age at time of diagnosis, class of heart failure (HF), dyspnea, ascites, atrial fibrillation (AF), ejection fraction (EF), E-point septal separation, end-diastolic volume index, end-systolic volume index (ESV-I), and restrictive or nonrestrictive transmitral flow (TMF) pattern. Median survival time was 671 days (lower 95% confidence limit, 350 days). Survival curves showed that severity of HF, ascites, ESV-I greater than 140 mL/m2, EF less than 25%, and restrictive TMF pattern had a significant negative relation to survival time. Thirty-nine dogs with both sinus rhythm and AF presented adequate TMF recordings; in these dogs, after stratification by TMF pattern, the restrictive TMF pattern was the most important negative prognostic indicator. We conclude that in dogs with dilated cardiomyopathy the restrictive TMF pattern appears to represent a useful prognostic indicator. Class of HF, ascites, ESV-I, and EF are also useful indexes if an adequate TMF pattern is not recorded.

A multiple-time-scale turbulence model based on variable partitioning of turbulent kinetic energy spectrum

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, S.-W.; Chen, C.-P.

1987-01-01

A multiple-time-scale turbulence model of a single point closure and a simplified split-spectrum method is presented. In the model, the effect of the ratio of the production rate to the dissipation rate on eddy viscosity is modeled by use of the multiple-time-scales and a variable partitioning of the turbulent kinetic energy spectrum. The concept of a variable partitioning of the turbulent kinetic energy spectrum and the rest of the model details are based on the previously reported algebraic stress turbulence model. Example problems considered include: a fully developed channel flow, a plane jet exhausting into a moving stream, a wall jet flow, and a weakly coupled wake-boundary layer interaction flow. The computational results compared favorably with those obtained by using the algebraic stress turbulence model as well as experimental data. The present turbulence model, as well as the algebraic stress turbulence model, yielded significantly improved computational results for the complex turbulent boundary layer flows, such as the wall jet flow and the wake boundary layer interaction flow, compared with available computational results obtained by using the standard kappa-epsilon turbulence model.

A multiple-time-scale turbulence model based on variable partitioning of the turbulent kinetic energy spectrum

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, S.-W.; Chen, C.-P.

1989-01-01

A multiple-time-scale turbulence model of a single point closure and a simplified split-spectrum method is presented. In the model, the effect of the ratio of the production rate to the dissipation rate on eddy viscosity is modeled by use of the multiple-time-scales and a variable partitioning of the turbulent kinetic energy spectrum. The concept of a variable partitioning of the turbulent kinetic energy spectrum and the rest of the model details are based on the previously reported algebraic stress turbulence model. Example problems considered include: a fully developed channel flow, a plane jet exhausting into a moving stream, a wall jet flow, and a weakly coupled wake-boundary layer interaction flow. The computational results compared favorably with those obtained by using the algebraic stress turbulence model as well as experimental data. The present turbulence model, as well as the algebraic stress turbulence model, yielded significantly improved computational results for the complex turbulent boundary layer flows, such as the wall jet flow and the wake boundary layer interaction flow, compared with available computational results obtained by using the standard kappa-epsilon turbulence model.

A short note on the maximal point-biserial correlation under non-normality.

PubMed

Cheng, Ying; Liu, Haiyan

2016-11-01

The aim of this paper is to derive the maximal point-biserial correlation under non-normality. Several widely used non-normal distributions are considered, namely the uniform distribution, t-distribution, exponential distribution, and a mixture of two normal distributions. Results show that the maximal point-biserial correlation, depending on the non-normal continuous variable underlying the binary manifest variable, may not be a function of p (the probability that the dichotomous variable takes the value 1), can be symmetric or non-symmetric around p = .5, and may still lie in the range from -1.0 to 1.0. Therefore researchers should exercise caution when they interpret their sample point-biserial correlation coefficients based on popular beliefs that the maximal point-biserial correlation is always smaller than 1, and that the size of the correlation is always further restricted as p deviates from .5. © 2016 The British Psychological Society.

Spatial and temporal variability of contaminants within estuarine sediments and native Olympia oysters: A contrast between a developed and an undeveloped estuary

USGS Publications Warehouse

Granek, Elise F.; Conn, Kathleen E.; Nilsen, Elena B.; Pillsbury, Lori; Strecker, Angela L.; Rumrill, Steve; Fish, William

2016-01-01

Chemical contaminants can be introduced into estuarine and marine ecosystems from a variety of sources including wastewater, agriculture and forestry practices, point and non-point discharges, runoff from industrial, municipal, and urban lands, accidental spills, and atmospheric deposition. The diversity of potential sources contributes to the likelihood of contaminated marine waters and sediments and increases the probability of uptake by marine organisms. Despite widespread recognition of direct and indirect pathways for contaminant deposition and organismal exposure in coastal systems, spatial and temporal variability in contaminant composition, deposition, and uptake patterns are still poorly known. We investigated these patterns for a suite of persistent legacy contaminants including polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and chemicals of emerging concern including pharmaceuticals within two Oregon coastal estuaries (Coos and Netarts Bays). In the more urbanized Coos Bay, native Olympia oyster (Ostrea lurida) tissue had approximately twice the number of PCB congeners at over seven times the total concentration, yet fewer PBDEs at one-tenth the concentration as compared to the more rural Netarts Bay. Different pharmaceutical suites were detected during each sampling season. Variability in contaminant types and concentrations across seasons and between species and media (organisms versus sediment) indicates the limitation of using indicator species and/or sampling annually to determine contaminant loads at a site or for specific species. The results indicate the prevalence of legacy contaminants and CECs in relatively undeveloped coastal environments highlighting the need to improve policy and management actions to reduce contaminant releases into estuarine and marine waters and to deal with legacy compounds that remain long after prohibition of use. Our results point to the need for better understanding of the ecological and human health risks of exposure to the diverse cocktail of pollutants and harmful compounds that will continue to leach from estuarine sediments over time.

SU-E-T-56: A Novel Approach to Computing Expected Value and Variance of Point Dose From Non-Gated Radiotherapy Delivery

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhou, S; Zhu, X; Zhang, M

Purpose: Randomness in patient internal organ motion phase at the beginning of non-gated radiotherapy delivery may introduce uncertainty to dose received by the patient. Concerns of this dose deviation from the planned one has motivated many researchers to study this phenomenon although unified theoretical framework for computing it is still missing. This study was conducted to develop such framework for analyzing the effect. Methods: Two reasonable assumptions were made: a) patient internal organ motion is stationary and periodic; b) no special arrangement is made to start a non -gated radiotherapy delivery at any specific phase of patient internal organ motion.more » A statistical ensemble was formed consisting of patient’s non-gated radiotherapy deliveries at all equally possible initial organ motion phases. To characterize the patient received dose, statistical ensemble average method is employed to derive formulae for two variables: expected value and variance of dose received by a patient internal point from a non-gated radiotherapy delivery. Fourier Series was utilized to facilitate our analysis. Results: According to our formulae, the two variables can be computed from non-gated radiotherapy generated dose rate time sequences at the point’s corresponding locations on fixed phase 3D CT images sampled evenly in time over one patient internal organ motion period. The expected value of point dose is simply the average of the doses to the point’s corresponding locations on the fixed phase CT images. The variance can be determined by time integration in terms of Fourier Series coefficients of the dose rate time sequences on the same fixed phase 3D CT images. Conclusion: Given a non-gated radiotherapy delivery plan and patient’s 4D CT study, our novel approach can predict the expected value and variance of patient radiation dose. We expect it to play a significant role in determining both quality and robustness of patient non-gated radiotherapy plan.« less

Thermal, physiological and perceptual strain mediate alterations in match-play tennis under heat stress

PubMed Central

Périard, Julien D; Racinais, Sébastien; Knez, Wade L; Herrera, Christopher P; Christian, Ryan J; Girard, Olivier

2014-01-01

Objectives This study compared the thermal, physiological and perceptual responses associated with match-play tennis in HOT (∼34°C wet-bulb-globe temperature (WBGT)) and COOL (∼19°C WBGT) conditions, along with the accompanying alterations in match characteristics. Methods 12 male tennis players undertook two matches for an effective playing time (ie, ball in play) of 20 min, corresponding to ∼119 and ∼102 min of play in HOT and COOL conditions, respectively. Rectal and skin temperatures, heart rate, subjective ratings of thermal comfort, thermal sensation and perceived exertion were recorded, along with match characteristics. Results End-match rectal temperature increased to a greater extent in the HOT (∼39.4°C) compared with the COOL (∼38.7°C) condition (p<0.05). Thigh skin temperature was higher throughout the HOT match (p<0.001). Heart rate, thermal comfort, thermal sensation and perceived exertion were also higher during the HOT match (p<0.001). Total playing time was longer in the HOT compared with the COOL match (p<0.05). Point duration (∼7.1 s) was similar between conditions, while the time between points was ∼10 s longer in the HOT relative to the COOL match (p<0.05). This led to a ∼3.4% lower effective playing percentage in the heat (p<0.05). Although several thermal, physiological and perceptual variables were individually correlated to the adjustments in time between points and effective playing percentage, thermal sensation was the only predictor variable associated with both adjustments (p<0.005). Conclusions These adjustments in match-play tennis characteristics under severe heat stress appear to represent a behavioural strategy adopted to minimise or offset the sensation of environmental conditions being rated as difficult. PMID:24668377

Application of closed-form solutions to a mesh point field in silicon solar cells

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lamorte, M. F.

1985-01-01

A computer simulation method is discussed that provides for equivalent simulation accuracy, but that exhibits significantly lower CPU running time per bias point compared to other techniques. This new method is applied to a mesh point field as is customary in numerical integration (NI) techniques. The assumption of a linear approximation for the dependent variable, which is typically used in the finite difference and finite element NI methods, is not required. Instead, the set of device transport equations is applied to, and the closed-form solutions obtained for, each mesh point. The mesh point field is generated so that the coefficients in the set of transport equations exhibit small changes between adjacent mesh points. Application of this method to high-efficiency silicon solar cells is described; and the method by which Auger recombination, ambipolar considerations, built-in and induced electric fields, bandgap narrowing, carrier confinement, and carrier diffusivities are treated. Bandgap narrowing has been investigated using Fermi-Dirac statistics, and these results show that bandgap narrowing is more pronounced and that it is temperature-dependent in contrast to the results based on Boltzmann statistics.

A microcosm of musical expression. III. Contributions of timing and dynamics to the aesthetic impression of pianists' performances of the initial measures of Chopin's Etude in E major.

PubMed

Repp, B H

1999-07-01

Four judges repeatedly assessed the overall aesthetic quality of more than 100 recorded performances of the opening of Chopin's Etude in E major on a 10-point scale. The judgments, which exhibited reasonable reliability and modest intercorrelations, were entered into regression analyses with 16 independent variables derived from earlier objective analyses of the expressive timing and dynamics of the performances [Repp, J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 104, 1085-1100 (1998); 105, 1972-1988 (1999)]. Only between 9% and 18% of the variance in the judges' ratings was accounted for. By contrast, timing variables accounted for 53% of the variance in one judge's ratings of synthesized performances that varied in timing only and mimicked the timing patterns of the original performances. These results indicate, first, that the aesthetic impression of the original recordings rested primarily on aspects other than those measured (such as texture, tone, or aspects of timing and dynamics that eluded the earlier analyses) and, second, that very different patterns of timing and dynamics are aesthetically acceptable for the same music, provided that other, aesthetically more crucial performance aspects are present.

Extending nonlinear analysis to short ecological time series.

PubMed

Hsieh, Chih-hao; Anderson, Christian; Sugihara, George

2008-01-01

Nonlinearity is important and ubiquitous in ecology. Though detectable in principle, nonlinear behavior is often difficult to characterize, analyze, and incorporate mechanistically into models of ecosystem function. One obvious reason is that quantitative nonlinear analysis tools are data intensive (require long time series), and time series in ecology are generally short. Here we demonstrate a useful method that circumvents data limitation and reduces sampling error by combining ecologically similar multispecies time series into one long time series. With this technique, individual ecological time series containing as few as 20 data points can be mined for such important information as (1) significantly improved forecast ability, (2) the presence and location of nonlinearity, and (3) the effective dimensionality (the number of relevant variables) of an ecological system.

Reciprocal associations between negative affect, binge eating, and purging in the natural environment in women with bulimia nervosa.

PubMed

Lavender, Jason M; Utzinger, Linsey M; Cao, Li; Wonderlich, Stephen A; Engel, Scott G; Mitchell, James E; Crosby, Ross D

2016-04-01

Although negative affect (NA) has been identified as a common trigger for bulimic behaviors, findings regarding NA following such behaviors have been mixed. This study examined reciprocal associations between NA and bulimic behaviors using real-time, naturalistic data. Participants were 133 women with bulimia nervosa (BN) according to the 4th edition of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders who completed a 2-week ecological momentary assessment protocol in which they recorded bulimic behaviors and provided multiple daily ratings of NA. A multilevel autoregressive cross-lagged analysis was conducted to examine concurrent, first-order autoregressive, and prospective associations between NA, binge eating, and purging across the day. Results revealed positive concurrent associations between all variables across all time points, as well as numerous autoregressive associations. For prospective associations, higher NA predicted subsequent bulimic symptoms at multiple time points; conversely, binge eating predicted lower NA at multiple time points, and purging predicted higher NA at 1 time point. Several autoregressive and prospective associations were also found between binge eating and purging. This study used a novel approach to examine NA in relation to bulimic symptoms, contributing to the existing literature by directly examining the magnitude of the associations, examining differences in the associations across the day, and controlling for other associations in testing each effect in the model. These findings may have relevance for understanding the etiology and/or maintenance of bulimic symptoms, as well as potentially informing psychological interventions for BN. (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

[Multiple time scales analysis of spatial differentiation characteristics of non-point source nitrogen loss within watershed].

PubMed

Liu, Mei-bing; Chen, Xing-wei; Chen, Ying

2015-07-01

Identification of the critical source areas of non-point source pollution is an important means to control the non-point source pollution within the watershed. In order to further reveal the impact of multiple time scales on the spatial differentiation characteristics of non-point source nitrogen loss, a SWAT model of Shanmei Reservoir watershed was developed. Based on the simulation of total nitrogen (TN) loss intensity of all 38 subbasins, spatial distribution characteristics of nitrogen loss and critical source areas were analyzed at three time scales of yearly average, monthly average and rainstorms flood process, respectively. Furthermore, multiple linear correlation analysis was conducted to analyze the contribution of natural environment and anthropogenic disturbance on nitrogen loss. The results showed that there were significant spatial differences of TN loss in Shanmei Reservoir watershed at different time scales, and the spatial differentiation degree of nitrogen loss was in the order of monthly average > yearly average > rainstorms flood process. TN loss load mainly came from upland Taoxi subbasin, which was identified as the critical source area. At different time scales, land use types (such as farmland and forest) were always the dominant factor affecting the spatial distribution of nitrogen loss, while the effect of precipitation and runoff on the nitrogen loss was only taken in no fertilization month and several processes of storm flood at no fertilization date. This was mainly due to the significant spatial variation of land use and fertilization, as well as the low spatial variability of precipitation and runoff.

Interactions between Point Bar Growth and Bank Erosion on a Low Sinuosity Meander Bend in an Ephemeral Channel: Insights from Repeat Topographic Surveys and Numerical Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ursic, M.; Langendoen, E. J.

2017-12-01

Interactions between point bar growth, bank migration, and hydraulics on meandering rivers are complicated and not well understood. For ephemeral streams, rapid fluctuations in flow further complicate studying and understanding these interactions. This study seeks to answer the following `cause-and-effect' question: Does point bar morphologic adjustment determine where bank erosion occurs (for example, through topographic steering of the flow), or does local bank retreat determine where accretion/erosion occurs on the point bar, or do bank erosion and point bar morphologic adjustment co-evolve? Further, is there a response time between the `cause-and-effect' processes and what variables determine its magnitude and duration? In an effort to answer these questions for an ephemeral stream, a dataset of forty-eight repeat topographic surveys over a ten-year period (1996-2006) of a low sinuosity bend within the Goodwin Creek Experimental Watershed, located near Batesville, MS, were utilized in conjunction with continuous discharge measurements to correlate flow variability and erosional and depositional zones, spatially and temporally. Hydraulically, the bend is located immediately downstream of a confluence with a major tributary. Supercritical flumes on both the primary and tributary channels just upstream of the confluence provide continuous measured discharges to the bend over the survey period. In addition, water surface elevations were continuously measured at the upstream and downstream ends of the bend. No spatial correlation trends could be discerned between reach-scale bank retreat, point bar morphologic adjustment, and flow discharge. Because detailed flow patterns were not available, the two-dimensional computer model Telemac2D was used to provide these details. The model was calibrated and validated for a set of runoff events for which more detailed flow data were available. Telemac2D simulations were created for each topographic survey period. Flows greater than baseflow were combined to create contiguous hydrographs for each survey period. Statistical examination of local flow variability and morphological changes throughout the bend will be conducted and presented.

A Longitudinal Assessment of Associations Between Women's Tendency to Pretend Orgasm, Orgasm Function, and Intercourse-Related Pain in Different Partner Relationship Constellations.

PubMed

Jern, Patrick; Hakala, Outi; Kärnä, Antti; Gunst, Annika

2018-04-01

The aim of the present study was to investigate how women's tendency to pretend orgasm during intercourse is associated with orgasm function and intercourse-related pain, using a longitudinal design where temporal stability and possible causal relationships could be modeled. The study sample consisted of 1421 Finnish women who had participated in large-scale population-based data collections conducted at two time points 7 years apart. Pretending orgasm was assessed for the past 4 weeks, and orgasm function and pain were assessed using the Female Sexual Function Index for the past 4 weeks. Associations were also computed separately in three groups of women based on relationship status. Pretending orgasm was considerably variable over time, with 34% of the women having pretended orgasm a few times or more at least at one time point, and 11% having done so at both time points. Initial bivariate correlations revealed associations between pretending orgasm and orgasm problems within and across time, whereas associations with pain were more ambiguous. However, we found no support in the path model for the leading hypotheses that pretending orgasms would predict pain or orgasm problems over a long period of time, or that pain or orgasm problems would predict pretending orgasm. The strongest predictor of future pretending in our model was previous pretending (R 2  = .14). Relationship status did not seem to affect pretending orgasm in any major way.

Identification of human plasma metabolites exhibiting time-of-day variation using an untargeted liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry metabolomic approach.

PubMed

Ang, Joo Ern; Revell, Victoria; Mann, Anuska; Mäntele, Simone; Otway, Daniella T; Johnston, Jonathan D; Thumser, Alfred E; Skene, Debra J; Raynaud, Florence

2012-08-01

Although daily rhythms regulate multiple aspects of human physiology, rhythmic control of the metabolome remains poorly understood. The primary objective of this proof-of-concept study was identification of metabolites in human plasma that exhibit significant 24-h variation. This was assessed via an untargeted metabolomic approach using liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC-MS). Eight lean, healthy, and unmedicated men, mean age 53.6 (SD ± 6.0) yrs, maintained a fixed sleep/wake schedule and dietary regime for 1 wk at home prior to an adaptation night and followed by a 25-h experimental session in the laboratory where the light/dark cycle, sleep/wake, posture, and calorific intake were strictly controlled. Plasma samples from each individual at selected time points were prepared using liquid-phase extraction followed by reverse-phase LC coupled to quadrupole time-of-flight MS analysis in positive ionization mode. Time-of-day variation in the metabolites was screened for using orthogonal partial least square discrimination between selected time points of 10:00 vs. 22:00 h, 16:00 vs. 04:00 h, and 07:00 (d 1) vs. 16:00 h, as well as repeated-measures analysis of variance with time as an independent variable. Subsequently, cosinor analysis was performed on all the sampled time points across the 24-h day to assess for significant daily variation. In this study, analytical variability, assessed using known internal standards, was low with coefficients of variation <10%. A total of 1069 metabolite features were detected and 203 (19%) showed significant time-of-day variation. Of these, 34 metabolites were identified using a combination of accurate mass, tandem MS, and online database searches. These metabolites include corticosteroids, bilirubin, amino acids, acylcarnitines, and phospholipids; of note, the magnitude of the 24-h variation of these identified metabolites was large, with the mean ratio of oscillation range over MESOR (24-h time series mean) of 65% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 49-81%). Importantly, several of these human plasma metabolites, including specific acylcarnitines and phospholipids, were hitherto not known to be 24-h variant. These findings represent an important baseline and will be useful in guiding the design and interpretation of future metabolite-based studies.

Variability of visual responses of superior colliculus neurons depends on stimulus velocity.

PubMed

Mochol, Gabriela; Wójcik, Daniel K; Wypych, Marek; Wróbel, Andrzej; Waleszczyk, Wioletta J

2010-03-03

Visually responding neurons in the superficial, retinorecipient layers of the cat superior colliculus receive input from two primarily parallel information processing channels, Y and W, which is reflected in their velocity response profiles. We quantified the time-dependent variability of responses of these neurons to stimuli moving with different velocities by Fano factor (FF) calculated in discrete time windows. The FF for cells responding to low-velocity stimuli, thus receiving W inputs, increased with the increase in the firing rate. In contrast, the dynamics of activity of the cells responding to fast moving stimuli, processed by Y pathway, correlated negatively with FF whether the response was excitatory or suppressive. These observations were tested against several types of surrogate data. Whereas Poisson description failed to reproduce the variability of all collicular responses, the inclusion of secondary structure to the generating point process recovered most of the observed features of responses to fast moving stimuli. Neither model could reproduce the variability of low-velocity responses, which suggests that, in this case, more complex time dependencies need to be taken into account. Our results indicate that Y and W channels may differ in reliability of responses to visual stimulation. Apart from previously reported morphological and physiological differences of the cells belonging to Y and W channels, this is a new feature distinguishing these two pathways.

An improved maximum power point tracking method for a photovoltaic system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ouoba, David; Fakkar, Abderrahim; El Kouari, Youssef; Dkhichi, Fayrouz; Oukarfi, Benyounes

2016-06-01

In this paper, an improved auto-scaling variable step-size Maximum Power Point Tracking (MPPT) method for photovoltaic (PV) system was proposed. To achieve simultaneously a fast dynamic response and stable steady-state power, a first improvement was made on the step-size scaling function of the duty cycle that controls the converter. An algorithm was secondly proposed to address wrong decision that may be made at an abrupt change of the irradiation. The proposed auto-scaling variable step-size approach was compared to some various other approaches from the literature such as: classical fixed step-size, variable step-size and a recent auto-scaling variable step-size maximum power point tracking approaches. The simulation results obtained by MATLAB/SIMULINK were given and discussed for validation.

Lost in Virtual Reality: Pathfinding Algorithms Detect Rock Fractures and Contacts in Point Clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiele, S.; Grose, L.; Micklethwaite, S.

2016-12-01

UAV-based photogrammetric and LiDAR techniques provide high resolution 3D point clouds and ortho-rectified photomontages that can capture surface geology in outstanding detail over wide areas. Automated and semi-automated methods are vital to extract full value from these data in practical time periods, though the nuances of geological structures and materials (natural variability in colour and geometry, soft and hard linkage, shadows and multiscale properties) make this a challenging task. We present a novel method for computer assisted trace detection in dense point clouds, using a lowest cost path solver to "follow" fracture traces and lithological contacts between user defined end points. This is achieved by defining a local neighbourhood network where each point in the cloud is linked to its neighbours, and then using a least-cost path algorithm to search this network and estimate the trace of the fracture or contact. A variety of different algorithms can then be applied to calculate the best fit plane, produce a fracture network, or map properties such as roughness, curvature and fracture intensity. Our prototype of this method (Fig. 1) suggests the technique is feasible and remarkably good at following traces under non-optimal conditions such as variable-shadow, partial occlusion and complex fracturing. Furthermore, if a fracture is initially mapped incorrectly, the user can easily provide further guidance by defining intermediate waypoints. Future development will include optimization of the algorithm to perform well on large point clouds and modifications that permit the detection of features such as step-overs. We also plan on implementing this approach in an interactive graphical user environment.

Pharmaceutics, Drug Delivery and Pharmaceutical Technology: A New Test Unit for Disintegration End-Point Determination of Orodispersible Films.

PubMed

Low, Ariana; Kok, Si Ling; Khong, Yuetmei; Chan, Sui Yung; Gokhale, Rajeev

2015-11-01

No standard time or pharmacopoeia disintegration test method for orodispersible films (ODFs) exists. The USP disintegration test for tablets and capsules poses significant challenges for end-point determination when used for ODFs. We tested a newly developed disintegration test unit (DTU) against the USP disintegration test. The DTU is an accessory to the USP disintegration apparatus. It holds the ODF in a horizontal position, allowing top-view of the ODF during testing. A Gauge R&R study was conducted to assign relative contributions of the total variability from the operator, sample or the experimental set-up. Precision was compared using commercial ODF products in different media. Agreement between the two measurement methods was analysed. The DTU showed improved repeatability and reproducibility compared to the USP disintegration system with tighter standard deviations regardless of operator or medium. There is good agreement between the two methods, with the USP disintegration test giving generally longer disintegration times possibly due to difficulty in end-point determination. The DTU provided clear end-point determination and is suitable for quality control of ODFs during product developmental stage or manufacturing. This may facilitate the development of a standardized methodology for disintegration time determination of ODFs. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. and the American Pharmacists Association J Pharm Sci 104:3893-3903, 2015. Copyright © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. and the American Pharmacists Association.

Comment on "Applications of homogenous balanced principle on investigating exact solutions to a series of time fractional nonlinear PDEs", [Commun Nonlinear Sci Numer Simulat 47 (2017) 253-266

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xiangzheng

2018-06-01

A counterexample is given to show that the product rule of the Caputo fractional derivatives does not hold except on a special point. The function-expansion method of separation variable proposed by Rui[Commun Nonlinear Sci Numer Simulat 47 (2017) 253-266] based on the product rule must be modified.

Orbital Maneuvers for Spacecrafts Travelling to/from the Lagrangian Points

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bertachini, A.

The well-known Lagrangian points that appear in the planar restricted three-body problem (Szebehely, 1967) are very important for astronautical applications. They are five points of equilibrium in the equations of motion, what means that a particle located at one of those points with zero velocity will remain there indefinitely. The collinear points (L1, L2 and L3) are always unstable and the triangular points (L4 and L5) are stable in the present case studied (Sun-Earth system). They are all very good points to locate a space-station, since they require a small amount of V (and fuel), the control to be used for station-keeping. The triangular points are specially good for this purpose, since they are stable equilibrium points. In this paper, the planar restricted three-body problem is regularized (using Lemaître regularization) and combined with numerical integration and gradient methods to solve the two point boundary value problem (the Lambert's three-body problem). This combination is applied to the search of families of transfer orbits between the Lagrangian points and the Earth, in the Sun-Earth system, with the minimum possible cost of the control used. So, the final goal of this paper is to find the magnitude and direction of the two impulses to be applied in the spacecraft to complete the transfer: the first one when leaving/arriving at the Lagrangian point and the second one when arriving/living at the Earth. This paper is a continuation of two previous papers that studied transfers in the Earth-Moon system: Broucke (1979), that studied transfer orbits between the Lagrangian points and the Moon and Prado (1996), that studied transfer orbits between the Lagrangian points and the Earth. So, the equations of motion are: whereis the pseudo-potential given by: To solve the TPBVP in the regularized variables the following steps are used: i) Guess a initial velocity Vi, so together with the initial prescribed position ri the complete initial state is known; ii) Guess a final regularized time f and integrate the regularized equations of motion from 0 = 0 until f; iii) Check the final position rf obtained from the numerical integration with the prescribed final position and the final real time with the specified time of flight. If there is an agreement (difference less than a specified error allowed) the solution is found and the process can stop here. If there is no agreement, an increment in the initial guessed velocity Vi and in the guessed final regularized time is made and the process goes back to step i). The method used to find the increment in the guessed variables is the standard gradient method, as described in Press et. al., 1989. The routines available in this reference are also used in this research with minor modifications. After that this algorithm is implemented, the Lambert's three-body problem between the Earth and the Lagrangian points is solved for several values of the time of flight. Since the regularized system is used to solve this problem, there is no need to specify the final position of M3 as lying in an primary's parking orbit (to avoid the singularity). Then, to make a comparison with previous papers (Broucke, 1979 and Prado, 1996) the centre of the primary is used as the final position for M3. The results are organized in plots of the energy and the initial flight path angle (the control to be used) in the rotating frame against the time of flight. The definition of the angle is such that the zero is in the "x" axis, (pointing to the positive direction) and it increases in the counter-clock-wise sense. This problem, as well as the Lambert's original version, has two solutions for a given transfer time: one in the counter-clock-wise direction and one in the clock-wise direction in the inertial frame. In this paper, emphasis is given in finding the families with the smallest possible energy (and velocity), although many other families do exist. Broucke, R., (1979) Travelling Between the Lagrange Points and the Moon, Journal of Guidance and Control, Vol. 2, Prado, A.F.B.A., (1969) Travelling Between the Lagrangian Points and the Earth, Acta Astronautica, Vol. 39, No. 7, pp. Press, W. H.; B. P. Flannery; S. A. Teukolsky and W. T. Vetterling (1989), Numerical Recipes, Cambridge University Szebehely, V., (1967), Theory of Orbits, Academic Press, New York.

Development and validation of a prognostic index for 4-year mortality in older adults.

PubMed

Lee, Sei J; Lindquist, Karla; Segal, Mark R; Covinsky, Kenneth E

2006-02-15

Both comorbid conditions and functional measures predict mortality in older adults, but few prognostic indexes combine both classes of predictors. Combining easily obtained measures into an accurate predictive model could be useful to clinicians advising patients, as well as policy makers and epidemiologists interested in risk adjustment. To develop and validate a prognostic index for 4-year mortality using information that can be obtained from patient report. Using the 1998 wave of the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), a population-based study of community-dwelling US adults older than 50 years, we developed the prognostic index from 11,701 individuals and validated the index with 8009. Individuals were asked about their demographic characteristics, whether they had specific diseases, and whether they had difficulty with a series of functional measures. We identified variables independently associated with mortality and weighted the variables to create a risk index. Death by December 31, 2002. The overall response rate was 81%. During the 4-year follow-up, there were 1361 deaths (12%) in the development cohort and 1072 deaths (13%) in the validation cohort. Twelve independent predictors of mortality were identified: 2 demographic variables (age: 60-64 years, 1 point; 65-69 years, 2 points; 70-74 years, 3 points; 75-79 years, 4 points; 80-84 years, 5 points, >85 years, 7 points and male sex, 2 points), 6 comorbid conditions (diabetes, 1 point; cancer, 2 points; lung disease, 2 points; heart failure, 2 points; current tobacco use, 2 points; and body mass index <25, 1 point), and difficulty with 4 functional variables (bathing, 2 points; walking several blocks, 2 points; managing money, 2 points, and pushing large objects, 1 point. Scores on the risk index were strongly associated with 4-year mortality in the validation cohort, with 0 to 5 points predicting a less than 4% risk, 6 to 9 points predicting a 15% risk, 10 to 13 points predicting a 42% risk, and 14 or more points predicting a 64% risk. The risk index showed excellent discrimination with a cstatistic of 0.84 in the development cohort and 0.82 in the validation cohort. This prognostic index, incorporating age, sex, self-reported comorbid conditions, and functional measures, accurately stratifies community-dwelling older adults into groups at varying risk of mortality.

Within-subject template estimation for unbiased longitudinal image analysis.

PubMed

Reuter, Martin; Schmansky, Nicholas J; Rosas, H Diana; Fischl, Bruce

2012-07-16

Longitudinal image analysis has become increasingly important in clinical studies of normal aging and neurodegenerative disorders. Furthermore, there is a growing appreciation of the potential utility of longitudinally acquired structural images and reliable image processing to evaluate disease modifying therapies. Challenges have been related to the variability that is inherent in the available cross-sectional processing tools, to the introduction of bias in longitudinal processing and to potential over-regularization. In this paper we introduce a novel longitudinal image processing framework, based on unbiased, robust, within-subject template creation, for automatic surface reconstruction and segmentation of brain MRI of arbitrarily many time points. We demonstrate that it is essential to treat all input images exactly the same as removing only interpolation asymmetries is not sufficient to remove processing bias. We successfully reduce variability and avoid over-regularization by initializing the processing in each time point with common information from the subject template. The presented results show a significant increase in precision and discrimination power while preserving the ability to detect large anatomical deviations; as such they hold great potential in clinical applications, e.g. allowing for smaller sample sizes or shorter trials to establish disease specific biomarkers or to quantify drug effects. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Influence of laser power on the penetration depth and geometry of scanning tracks in selective laser melting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stopyra, Wojciech; Kurzac, Jarosław; Gruber, Konrad; Kurzynowski, Tomasz; Chlebus, Edward

2016-12-01

SLM technology allows production of a fully functional objects from metal and ceramic powders, with true density of more than 99,9%. The quality of manufactured items in SLM method affects more than 100 parameters, which can be divided into fixed and variable. Fixed parameters are those whose value before the process should be defined and maintained in an appropriate range during the process, e.g. chemical composition and morphology of the powder, oxygen level in working chamber, heating temperature of the substrate plate. In SLM technology, five parameters are variables that optimal set allows to produce parts without defects (pores, cracks) and with an acceptable speed. These parameters are: laser power, distance between points, time of exposure, distance between lines and layer thickness. To develop optimal parameters thin walls or single track experiments are performed, to select the best sets narrowed to three parameters: laser power, exposure time and distance between points. In this paper, the effect of laser power on the penetration depth and geometry of scanned single track was shown. In this experiment, titanium (grade 2) substrate plate was used and scanned by fibre laser of 1064 nm wavelength. For each track width, height and penetration depth of laser beam was measured.

Heart rate variability associated with posttraumatic stress disorder in victims' families of sewol ferry disaster.

PubMed

Lee, Sang Min; Han, Hyesung; Jang, Kuk-In; Huh, Seung; Huh, Hyu Jung; Joo, Ji-Young; Chae, Jeong-Ho

2018-01-01

Posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), which is caused by a major traumatic event, has been associated with autonomic nervous function. However, there have been few explorations of measuring biological stress in the victims' family members who have been indirectly exposed to the disaster. Therefore, this longitudinal study examined the heart rate variability (HRV) of the family members of victims of the Sewol ferry disaster. We recruited 112 family members of victims 18 months after the disaster. Sixty-seven participants were revisited at the 30 months postdisaster time point. HRV and psychiatric symptoms including PTSD, depression and anxiety were evaluated at each time point. Participants with PTSD had a higher low frequency to high frequency ratio (LF:HF ratio) than those without PTSD. Logistic regression analysis showed that the LF:HF ratio at 18 months postdisaster was associated with a PTSD diagnosis at 30 months postdisaster. These results suggest that disrupted autonomic nervous system functioning for longer than a year after trauma exposure contributes to predicting PTSD vulnerability. Our finding may contribute to understand neurophysiologic mechanisms underlying secondary traumatic stress. Future studies will be needed to clarify the interaction between autonomic regulation and trauma exposure. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Optimization of Culture Conditions for Enrichment of Saccharomyces cerevisiae with Dl-α-Tocopherol by Response Surface Methodology.

PubMed

Mohajeri Amiri, Morteza; Fazeli, Mohammad Reza; Amini, Mohsen; Hayati Roodbari, Nasim; Samadi, Nasrin

2017-01-01

Designing enriched probiotic supplements may have some advantages including protection of probiotic microorganism from oxidative destruction, improving enzyme activity of the gastrointestinal tract, and probably increasing half-life of micronutrient. In this study Saccharomyces cerevisiae enriched with dl-α-tocopherol was produced as an accumulator and transporter of a lipid soluble vitamin for the first time. By using one variable at the time screening studies, three independent variables were selected. Optimization of the level of dl-α-tocopherol entrapment in S. cerevisiae cells was performed by using Box-Behnken design via design expert software. A modified quadratic polynomial model appropriately fit the data. The convex shape of three-dimensional plots reveal that we could calculate the optimal point of the response in the range of parameters. The optimum points of independent parameters to maximize the response were dl-α-tocopherol initial concentration of 7625.82 µg/mL, sucrose concentration of 6.86 % w/v, and shaking speed of 137.70 rpm. Under these conditions, the maximum level of dl-α-tocopherol in dry cell weight of S. cerevisiae was 5.74 µg/g. The resemblance between the R-squared and adjusted R-squared and acceptable value of C.V% revealed acceptability and accuracy of the model.

[Exposure pathways to pesticides in schoolchildren in the Province of Talca, Chile].

PubMed

Muñoz-Quezada, María Teresa; Lucero, Boris; Iglesias, Verónica; Muñoz, María Pía

2014-01-01

To describe pesticide concentrations in distinct environmental matrices at two time points (low and high seasons in local agricultural production) and to estimate the association between the presence of pesticide residues in matrices and the use of pesticides in the home with the sociodemographic variables of schoolchildren in the Province of Talca, Chile. A cross-sectional study was conducted in 190 schoolchildren. Families were surveyed about their children's vegetable consumption in school and at home, the use of pesticides in the home, and other sociodemographic variables. Additionally, we measured pesticide residues in vegetables and water consumed by the schoolchildren and in the soil of 14 schools. At both time points, the vegetable matrix had the highest pesticide concentration, both in urban and rural schoolchildren. The most common pesticide residues in vegetables were chlorpyrifos, diphenylamine, pyrimethanil, and thiabendazole. In the home, pyrethroid and organophosphate pesticides were mainly used in summer. Dangerous pesticide residues such as azinphos methyl and dimethoate were found in vegetables consumed by the children in schools and households, and organochlorines were found in the soil in some schools. Pesticide exposure should be limited and the health effects related to pesticide exposure should be assessed in the school population. Copyright © 2013 SESPAS. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Dissolved organic nitrogen dynamics in the North Sea: A time series analysis (1995-2005)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Engeland, T.; Soetaert, K.; Knuijt, A.; Laane, R. W. P. M.; Middelburg, J. J.

2010-09-01

Dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) dynamics in the North Sea was explored by means of long-term time series of nitrogen parameters from the Dutch national monitoring program. Generally, the data quality was good with little missing data points. Different imputation methods were used to verify the robustness of the patterns against these missing data. No long-term trends in DON concentrations were found over the sampling period (1995-2005). Inter-annual variability in the different time series showed both common and station-specific behavior. The stations could be divided into two regions, based on absolute concentrations and the dominant times scales of variability. Average DON concentrations were 11 μmol l -1 in the coastal region and 5 μmol l -1 in the open sea. Organic fractions of total dissolved nitrogen (TDN) averaged 38 and 71% in the coastal zone and open sea, respectively, but increased over time due to decreasing dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) concentrations. In both regions intra-annual variability dominated over inter-annual variability, but DON variation in the open sea was markedly shifted towards shorter time scales relative to coastal stations. In the coastal zone a consistent seasonal DON cycle existed with high values in spring-summer and low values in autumn-winter. In the open sea seasonality was weak. A marked shift in the seasonality was found at the Dogger Bank, with DON accumulation towards summer and low values in winter prior to 1999, and accumulation in spring and decline throughout summer after 1999. This study clearly shows that DON is a dynamic actor in the North Sea and should be monitored systematically to enable us to understand fully the functioning of this ecosystem.

Soil moisture optimal sampling strategy for Sentinel 1 validation super-sites in Poland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Usowicz, Boguslaw; Lukowski, Mateusz; Marczewski, Wojciech; Lipiec, Jerzy; Usowicz, Jerzy; Rojek, Edyta; Slominska, Ewa; Slominski, Jan

2014-05-01

Soil moisture (SM) exhibits a high temporal and spatial variability that is dependent not only on the rainfall distribution, but also on the topography of the area, physical properties of soil and vegetation characteristics. Large variability does not allow on certain estimation of SM in the surface layer based on ground point measurements, especially in large spatial scales. Remote sensing measurements allow estimating the spatial distribution of SM in the surface layer on the Earth, better than point measurements, however they require validation. This study attempts to characterize the SM distribution by determining its spatial variability in relation to the number and location of ground point measurements. The strategy takes into account the gravimetric and TDR measurements with different sampling steps, abundance and distribution of measuring points on scales of arable field, wetland and commune (areas: 0.01, 1 and 140 km2 respectively), taking into account the different status of SM. Mean values of SM were lowly sensitive on changes in the number and arrangement of sampling, however parameters describing the dispersion responded in a more significant manner. Spatial analysis showed autocorrelations of the SM, which lengths depended on the number and the distribution of points within the adopted grids. Directional analysis revealed a differentiated anisotropy of SM for different grids and numbers of measuring points. It can therefore be concluded that both the number of samples, as well as their layout on the experimental area, were reflected in the parameters characterizing the SM distribution. This suggests the need of using at least two variants of sampling, differing in the number and positioning of the measurement points, wherein the number of them must be at least 20. This is due to the value of the standard error and range of spatial variability, which show little change with the increase in the number of samples above this figure. Gravimetric method gives a more varied distribution of SM than those derived from TDR measurements. It should be noted that reducing the number of samples in the measuring grid leads to flattening the distribution of SM from both methods and increasing the estimation error at the same time. Grid of sensors for permanent measurement points should include points that have similar distributions of SM in the vicinity. Results of the analysis including number, the maximum correlation ranges and the acceptable estimation error should be taken into account when choosing of the measurement points. Adoption or possible adjustment of the distribution of the measurement points should be verified by performing additional measuring campaigns during the dry and wet periods. Presented approach seems to be appropriate for creation of regional-scale test (super) sites, to validate products of satellites equipped with SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar), operating in C-band, with spatial resolution suited to single field scale, as for example: ERS-1, ERS-2, Radarsat and Sentinel-1, which is going to be launched in next few months. The work was partially funded by the Government of Poland through an ESA Contract under the PECS ELBARA_PD project No. 4000107897/13/NL/KML.

Real-time Continuous Assessment Method for Mental and Physiological Condition using Heart Rate Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoshida, Yutaka; Yokoyama, Kiyoko; Ishii, Naohiro

It is necessary to monitor the daily health condition for preventing stress syndrome. In this study, it was proposed the method assessing the mental and physiological condition, such as the work stress or the relaxation, using heart rate variability at real time and continuously. The instantanuous heart rate (HR), and the ratio of the number of extreme points (NEP) and the number of heart beats were calculated for assessing mental and physiological condition. In this method, 20 beats heart rate were used to calculate these indexes. These were calculated in one beat interval. Three conditions, which are sitting rest, performing mental arithmetic and watching relaxation movie, were assessed using our proposed algorithm. The assessment accuracies were 71.9% and 55.8%, when performing mental arithmetic and watching relaxation movie respectively. In this method, the mental and physiological condition was assessed using only 20 regressive heart beats, so this method is considered as the real time assessment method.

Registered Replication Report: Rand, Greene, and Nowak (2012).

PubMed

Bouwmeester, S; Verkoeijen, P P J L; Aczel, B; Barbosa, F; Bègue, L; Brañas-Garza, P; Chmura, T G H; Cornelissen, G; Døssing, F S; Espín, A M; Evans, A M; Ferreira-Santos, F; Fiedler, S; Flegr, J; Ghaffari, M; Glöckner, A; Goeschl, T; Guo, L; Hauser, O P; Hernan-Gonzalez, R; Herrero, A; Horne, Z; Houdek, P; Johannesson, M; Koppel, L; Kujal, P; Laine, T; Lohse, J; Martins, E C; Mauro, C; Mischkowski, D; Mukherjee, S; Myrseth, K O R; Navarro-Martínez, D; Neal, T M S; Novakova, J; Pagà, R; Paiva, T O; Palfi, B; Piovesan, M; Rahal, R-M; Salomon, E; Srinivasan, N; Srivastava, A; Szaszi, B; Szollosi, A; Thor, K Ø; Tinghög, G; Trueblood, J S; Van Bavel, J J; van 't Veer, A E; Västfjäll, D; Warner, M; Wengström, E; Wills, J; Wollbrant, C E

2017-05-01

In an anonymous 4-person economic game, participants contributed more money to a common project (i.e., cooperated) when required to decide quickly than when forced to delay their decision (Rand, Greene & Nowak, 2012), a pattern consistent with the social heuristics hypothesis proposed by Rand and colleagues. The results of studies using time pressure have been mixed, with some replication attempts observing similar patterns (e.g., Rand et al., 2014) and others observing null effects (e.g., Tinghög et al., 2013; Verkoeijen & Bouwmeester, 2014). This Registered Replication Report (RRR) assessed the size and variability of the effect of time pressure on cooperative decisions by combining 21 separate, preregistered replications of the critical conditions from Study 7 of the original article (Rand et al., 2012). The primary planned analysis used data from all participants who were randomly assigned to conditions and who met the protocol inclusion criteria (an intent-to-treat approach that included the 65.9% of participants in the time-pressure condition and 7.5% in the forced-delay condition who did not adhere to the time constraints), and we observed a difference in contributions of -0.37 percentage points compared with an 8.6 percentage point difference calculated from the original data. Analyzing the data as the original article did, including data only for participants who complied with the time constraints, the RRR observed a 10.37 percentage point difference in contributions compared with a 15.31 percentage point difference in the original study. In combination, the results of the intent-to-treat analysis and the compliant-only analysis are consistent with the presence of selection biases and the absence of a causal effect of time pressure on cooperation.

The time-delayed inverted pendulum: Implications for human balance control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Milton, John; Cabrera, Juan Luis; Ohira, Toru; Tajima, Shigeru; Tonosaki, Yukinori; Eurich, Christian W.; Campbell, Sue Ann

2009-06-01

The inverted pendulum is frequently used as a starting point for discussions of how human balance is maintained during standing and locomotion. Here we examine three experimental paradigms of time-delayed balance control: (1) mechanical inverted time-delayed pendulum, (2) stick balancing at the fingertip, and (3) human postural sway during quiet standing. Measurements of the transfer function (mechanical stick balancing) and the two-point correlation function (Hurst exponent) for the movements of the fingertip (real stick balancing) and the fluctuations in the center of pressure (postural sway) demonstrate that the upright fixed point is unstable in all three paradigms. These observations imply that the balanced state represents a more complex and bounded time-dependent state than a fixed-point attractor. Although mathematical models indicate that a sufficient condition for instability is for the time delay to make a corrective movement, τn, be greater than a critical delay τc that is proportional to the length of the pendulum, this condition is satisfied only in the case of human stick balancing at the fingertip. Thus it is suggested that a common cause of instability in all three paradigms stems from the difficulty of controlling both the angle of the inverted pendulum and the position of the controller simultaneously using time-delayed feedback. Considerations of the problematic nature of control in the presence of delay and random perturbations ("noise") suggest that neural control for the upright position likely resembles an adaptive-type controller in which the displacement angle is allowed to drift for small displacements with active corrections made only when θ exceeds a threshold. This mechanism draws attention to an overlooked type of passive control that arises from the interplay between retarded variables and noise.

Registered Replication Report: Rand, Greene, and Nowak (2012)

PubMed Central

Bouwmeester, S.; Verkoeijen, P. P. J. L.; Aczel, B.; Barbosa, F.; Bègue, L.; Brañas-Garza, P.; Chmura, T. G. H.; Cornelissen, G.; Døssing, F. S.; Espín, A. M.; Evans, A. M.; Ferreira-Santos, F.; Fiedler, S.; Flegr, J.; Ghaffari, M.; Glöckner, A.; Goeschl, T.; Guo, L.; Hauser, O. P.; Hernan-Gonzalez, R.; Herrero, A.; Horne, Z.; Houdek, P.; Johannesson, M.; Koppel, L.; Kujal, P.; Laine, T.; Lohse, J.; Martins, E. C.; Mauro, C.; Mischkowski, D.; Mukherjee, S.; Myrseth, K. O. R.; Navarro-Martínez, D.; Neal, T. M. S.; Novakova, J.; Pagà, R.; Paiva, T. O.; Palfi, B.; Piovesan, M.; Rahal, R.-M.; Salomon, E.; Srinivasan, N.; Srivastava, A.; Szaszi, B.; Szollosi, A.; Thor, K. Ø.; Tinghög, G.; Trueblood, J. S.; Van Bavel, J. J.; van ‘t Veer, A. E.; Västfjäll, D.; Warner, M.; Wengström, E.; Wills, J.; Wollbrant, C. E.

2017-01-01

In an anonymous 4-person economic game, participants contributed more money to a common project (i.e., cooperated) when required to decide quickly than when forced to delay their decision (Rand, Greene & Nowak, 2012), a pattern consistent with the social heuristics hypothesis proposed by Rand and colleagues. The results of studies using time pressure have been mixed, with some replication attempts observing similar patterns (e.g., Rand et al., 2014) and others observing null effects (e.g., Tinghög et al., 2013; Verkoeijen & Bouwmeester, 2014). This Registered Replication Report (RRR) assessed the size and variability of the effect of time pressure on cooperative decisions by combining 21 separate, preregistered replications of the critical conditions from Study 7 of the original article (Rand et al., 2012). The primary planned analysis used data from all participants who were randomly assigned to conditions and who met the protocol inclusion criteria (an intent-to-treat approach that included the 65.9% of participants in the time-pressure condition and 7.5% in the forced-delay condition who did not adhere to the time constraints), and we observed a difference in contributions of −0.37 percentage points compared with an 8.6 percentage point difference calculated from the original data. Analyzing the data as the original article did, including data only for participants who complied with the time constraints, the RRR observed a 10.37 percentage point difference in contributions compared with a 15.31 percentage point difference in the original study. In combination, the results of the intent-to-treat analysis and the compliant-only analysis are consistent with the presence of selection biases and the absence of a causal effect of time pressure on cooperation. PMID:28475467

Predicting Internet risks: a longitudinal panel study of gratifications-sought, Internet addiction symptoms, and social media use among children and adolescents

PubMed Central

Leung, Louis

2014-01-01

This study used longitudinal panel survey data collected from 417 adolescents at 2 points in time 1 year apart. It examined relationships between Internet risks changes in Time 2 and social media gratifications-sought, Internet addiction symptoms, and social media use all measured at Time 1. By controlling for age, gender, education, and criterion variable scores in Internet addiction at Time 1, entertainment and instant messaging use at Time 1 significantly predicted increased Internet addiction measured at Time 2. The study also controlled for demographics and scores of criterion variables in Internet risks: targeted for harassment, privacy exposed, and pornographic or violent content consumed in Time 1. Gratifications-sought (including status-gaining, expressing opinions, and identity experimentation), Internet addiction symptoms (including withdrawal and negative life consequences), and social media use (in particular, blogs, and Facebook) significantly predicted Internet risk changes in Time 2. These findings suggest that, with their predictive power, these predictors at Time 1 could be used to identify those adolescents who are likely to develop Internet addiction symptoms and the likelihood of experiencing Internet risks based on their previous gratifications-sought, previous addiction symptoms, and their habits of social media use at Time 1. PMID:25750792

Predicting Internet risks: a longitudinal panel study of gratifications-sought, Internet addiction symptoms, and social media use among children and adolescents.

PubMed

Leung, Louis

2014-01-01

This study used longitudinal panel survey data collected from 417 adolescents at 2 points in time 1 year apart. It examined relationships between Internet risks changes in Time 2 and social media gratifications-sought, Internet addiction symptoms, and social media use all measured at Time 1. By controlling for age, gender, education, and criterion variable scores in Internet addiction at Time 1, entertainment and instant messaging use at Time 1 significantly predicted increased Internet addiction measured at Time 2. The study also controlled for demographics and scores of criterion variables in Internet risks: targeted for harassment, privacy exposed, and pornographic or violent content consumed in Time 1. Gratifications-sought (including status-gaining, expressing opinions, and identity experimentation), Internet addiction symptoms (including withdrawal and negative life consequences), and social media use (in particular, blogs, and Facebook) significantly predicted Internet risk changes in Time 2. These findings suggest that, with their predictive power, these predictors at Time 1 could be used to identify those adolescents who are likely to develop Internet addiction symptoms and the likelihood of experiencing Internet risks based on their previous gratifications-sought, previous addiction symptoms, and their habits of social media use at Time 1.

A predictive model for diagnosing bipolar disorder based on the clinical characteristics of major depressive episodes in Chinese population.

PubMed

Gan, Zhaoyu; Diao, Feici; Wei, Qinling; Wu, Xiaoli; Cheng, Minfeng; Guan, Nianhong; Zhang, Ming; Zhang, Jinbei

2011-11-01

A correct timely diagnosis of bipolar depression remains a big challenge for clinicians. This study aimed to develop a clinical characteristic based model to predict the diagnosis of bipolar disorder among patients with current major depressive episodes. A prospective study was carried out on 344 patients with current major depressive episodes, with 268 completing 1-year follow-up. Data were collected through structured interviews. Univariate binary logistic regression was conducted to select potential predictive variables among 19 initial variables, and then multivariate binary logistic regression was performed to analyze the combination of risk factors and build a predictive model. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was plotted. Of 19 initial variables, 13 variables were preliminarily selected, and then forward stepwise exercise produced a final model consisting of 6 variables: age at first onset, maximum duration of depressive episodes, somatalgia, hypersomnia, diurnal variation of mood, irritability. The correct prediction rate of this model was 78% (95%CI: 75%-86%) and the area under the ROC curve was 0.85 (95%CI: 0.80-0.90). The cut-off point for age at first onset was 28.5 years old, while the cut-off point for maximum duration of depressive episode was 7.5 months. The limitations of this study include small sample size, relatively short follow-up period and lack of treatment information. Our predictive models based on six clinical characteristics of major depressive episodes prove to be robust and can help differentiate bipolar depression from unipolar depression. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Rate equation analysis and non-Hermiticity in coupled semiconductor laser arrays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Zihe; Johnson, Matthew T.; Choquette, Kent D.

2018-05-01

Optically coupled semiconductor laser arrays are described by coupled rate equations. The coupled mode equations and carrier densities are included in the analysis, which inherently incorporate the carrier-induced nonlinearities including gain saturation and amplitude-phase coupling. We solve the steady-state coupled rate equations and consider the cavity frequency detuning and the individual laser pump rates as the experimentally controlled variables. We show that the carrier-induced nonlinearities play a critical role in the mode control, and we identify gain contrast induced by cavity frequency detuning as a unique mechanism for mode control. Photon-mediated energy transfer between cavities is also discussed. Parity-time symmetry and exceptional points in this system are studied. Unbroken parity-time symmetry can be achieved by judiciously combining cavity detuning and unequal pump rates, while broken symmetry lies on the boundary of the optical locking region. Exceptional points are identified at the intersection between broken symmetry and unbroken parity-time symmetry.

Different methods to analyze stepped wedge trial designs revealed different aspects of intervention effects.

PubMed

Twisk, J W R; Hoogendijk, E O; Zwijsen, S A; de Boer, M R

2016-04-01

Within epidemiology, a stepped wedge trial design (i.e., a one-way crossover trial in which several arms start the intervention at different time points) is increasingly popular as an alternative to a classical cluster randomized controlled trial. Despite this increasing popularity, there is a huge variation in the methods used to analyze data from a stepped wedge trial design. Four linear mixed models were used to analyze data from a stepped wedge trial design on two example data sets. The four methods were chosen because they have been (frequently) used in practice. Method 1 compares all the intervention measurements with the control measurements. Method 2 treats the intervention variable as a time-independent categorical variable comparing the different arms with each other. In method 3, the intervention variable is a time-dependent categorical variable comparing groups with different number of intervention measurements, whereas in method 4, the changes in the outcome variable between subsequent measurements are analyzed. Regarding the results in the first example data set, methods 1 and 3 showed a strong positive intervention effect, which disappeared after adjusting for time. Method 2 showed an inverse intervention effect, whereas method 4 did not show a significant effect at all. In the second example data set, the results were the opposite. Both methods 2 and 4 showed significant intervention effects, whereas the other two methods did not. For method 4, the intervention effect attenuated after adjustment for time. Different methods to analyze data from a stepped wedge trial design reveal different aspects of a possible intervention effect. The choice of a method partly depends on the type of the intervention and the possible time-dependent effect of the intervention. Furthermore, it is advised to combine the results of the different methods to obtain an interpretable overall result. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Impact of Retardance Pattern Variability on Nerve Fiber Layer Measurements over Time Using GDx with Variable and Enhanced Corneal Compensation

PubMed Central

Grewal, Dilraj S.; Sehi, Mitra; Cook, Richard J.

2011-01-01

Purpose. To examine the impact of retardance pattern variability on retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) measurements over time using scanning laser polarimetry with variable (GDxVCC) and enhanced corneal compensation (GDxECC; both by Carl Zeiss Meditec, Inc., Dublin, CA). Methods. Glaucoma suspect and glaucomatous eyes with 4 years of follow-up participating in the Advanced Imaging in Glaucoma Study were prospectively enrolled. All eyes underwent standard automated perimetry (SAP), GDxVCC, and GDxECC imaging every 6 months. SAP progression was determined with point-wise linear regression analysis of SAP sensitivity values. Typical scan score (TSS) values were extracted as a measure of retardance image quality; an atypical retardation pattern (ARP) was defined as TSS < 80. TSS fluctuation over time was measured using three parameters: change in TSS from baseline, absolute difference (maximum minus minimum TSS value), and TSS variance. Linear mixed-effects models that accommodated the association between the two eyes were constructed to evaluate the relationship between change in TSS and RNFL thickness over time. Results. Eighty-six eyes (51 suspected glaucoma, 35 glaucomatous) of 45 patients were enrolled. Twenty (23.3%) eyes demonstrated SAP progression. There was significantly greater fluctuation in TSS over time with GDxVCC compared with GDxECC as measured by absolute difference (18.40 ± 15.35 units vs. 2.50 ± 4.69 units; P < 0.001), TSS variance (59.63 ± 87.27 units vs. 3.82 ± 9.63 units, P < 0.001), and change in TSS from baseline (−0.83 ± 11.2 vs. 0.25 ± 2.9, P = 0.01). The change in TSS over time significantly (P = 0.006) influenced the TSNIT average RNFL thickness when measured by GDxVCC but not by GDxECC. Conclusions. Longitudinal images obtained with GDxECC have significantly less variability in TSS and retardance patterns and have reduced bias produced by ARP on RNFL progression assessment. PMID:21296821

Development and validation of a canine radius replica for mechanical testing of orthopedic implants.

PubMed

Little, Jeffrey P; Horn, Timothy J; Marcellin-Little, Denis J; Harrysson, Ola L A; West, Harvey A

2012-01-01

To design and fabricate fiberglass-reinforced composite (FRC) replicas of a canine radius and compare their mechanical properties with those of radii from dog cadavers. Replicas based on 3 FRC formulations with 33%, 50%, or 60% short-length discontinuous fiberglass by weight (7 replicas/group) and 5 radii from large (> 30-kg) dog cadavers. Bones and FRC replicas underwent nondestructive mechanical testing including 4-point bending, axial loading, and torsion and destructive testing to failure during 4-point bending. Axial, internal and external torsional, and bending stiffnesses were calculated. Axial pullout loads for bone screws placed in the replicas and cadaveric radii were also assessed. Axial, internal and external torsional, and 4-point bending stiffnesses of FRC replicas increased significantly with increasing fiberglass content. The 4-point bending stiffness of 33% and 50% FRC replicas and axial and internal torsional stiffnesses of 33% FRC replicas were equivalent to the cadaveric bone stiffnesses. Ultimate 4-point bending loads did not differ significantly between FRC replicas and bones. Ultimate screw pullout loads did not differ significantly between 33% or 50% FRC replicas and bones. Mechanical property variability (coefficient of variation) of cadaveric radii was approximately 2 to 19 times that of FRC replicas, depending on loading protocols. Within the range of properties tested, FRC replicas had mechanical properties equivalent to and mechanical property variability less than those of radii from dog cadavers. Results indicated that FRC replicas may be a useful alternative to cadaveric bones for biomechanical testing of canine bone constructs.

A longitudinal investigation of children internationally adopted at school age.

PubMed

Helder, Emily J; Mulder, Elizabeth; Gunnoe, Marjorie Linder

2016-01-01

Most existing research on children adopted internationally has focused on those adopted as infants and toddlers. The current study longitudinally tracked several outcomes, including cognitive, behavioral, emotional, attachment, and family functioning, in 25 children who had been internationally adopted at school age (M = 7.7 years old at adoption, SD = 3.4, range = 4–15 years). We examined the incidence of clinically significant impairments, significant change in outcomes over the three study points, and variables that predicted outcomes over time. Clinically significant impairments in sustained attention, full-scale intelligence, reading, language, executive functioning, externalizing problems, and parenting stress were common, with language and executive functioning impairments present at higher levels in the current study compared with past research focusing on children adopted as infants and toddlers. Over the three study points, significant improvements across most cognitive areas and attachment functioning were observed, though significant worsening in executive functioning and internalizing problems was present. Adoptive family-specific variables, such as greater maternal education, smaller family size, a parenting approach that encouraged age-expected behaviors, home schooling, and being the sole adopted child in the family were associated with greater improvement across several cognitive outcomes. In contrast, decreased parenting stress was predicted by having multiple adopted children and smaller family sizes were associated with greater difficulties with executive functioning. Child-specific variables were also linked to outcomes, with girls displaying worse attachment and poorer cognitive performance and with less time in orphanage care resulting in greater adoption success. Implications for future research and clinical applications are discussed.

Mental Health Status, Health Care Utilisation, and Service Satisfaction among Immigrants in Montreal: An Epidemiological Comparison.

PubMed

Whitley, Rob; Wang, JiaWei; Fleury, Marie-Josee; Liu, Aihua; Caron, Jean

2017-08-01

To examine variations between immigrants and nonimmigrants in 1) prevalence of common mental disorders and other mental health variables; 2) health service utilisation for emotional problems, mental disorders, and addictions, and 3) health service satisfaction. This article is based on a longitudinal cohort study conducted from May 2007 to the present: the Epidemiological Catchment Area Study of Montreal South-West (ZEPSOM). Participants were followed up at 4 time points (T1, n = 2433; T4, n = 1095). Core exposure variables include immigrant status (immigrant vs. nonimmigrant), duration of residence, and region of origin. Key outcome variables included mental health status, health service utilisation, and health service satisfaction. Data were analysed both cross-sectionally and longitudinally. Immigrants had been in Canada for 20 years on average. Immigrants had significantly lower rates of high psychological distress (32.6% vs. 39.1%, P = 0.016), alcohol dependence (1.4% vs. 3.9%, P =0.010), depression (5.2% vs. 9.2%, P = 0.008), and various other mental disorders. They had significantly higher scores of mental well-being (48.9 vs. 47.1 score, P = 0.014) and satisfaction with social (34.0 vs. 33.4 score, P = 0.021) and personal relationships (16.7 vs. 15.6 score, P < 0.001). Immigrants had significantly lower rates of health service utilisation for emotional problems, mental disorders, and addictions and significantly higher rates of health service satisfaction at all time points. Asian and African immigrants had particularly low rates of utilisation and high rates of satisfaction. Immigrants had better overall mental health than nonimmigrants.

State-Level Point-of-Sale Tobacco News Coverage and Policy Progression Over a 2-Year Period.

PubMed

Myers, Allison E; Southwell, Brian G; Ribisl, Kurt M; Moreland-Russell, Sarah; Bowling, J Michael; Lytle, Leslie A

2018-01-01

Mass media content may play an important role in policy change. However, the empirical relationship between media advocacy efforts and tobacco control policy success has rarely been studied. We examined the extent to which newspaper content characteristics (volume, slant, frame, source, use of evidence, and degree of localization) that have been identified as important in past descriptive studies were associated with policy progression over a 2-year period in the context of point-of-sale (POS) tobacco control. We used regression analyses to test the relationships between newspaper content and policy progression from 2012 to 2014. The dependent variable was the level of implementation of state-level POS tobacco control policies at Time 2. Independent variables were newspaper article characteristics (volume, slant, frame, source, use of evidence, and degree of localization) and were collected via content analysis of the articles. State-level policy environment contextual variables were examined as confounders. Positive, significant bivariate relationships exist between characteristics of news content (e.g., high overall volume, public health source present, local quote and local angle present, and pro-tobacco control slant present) and Time 2 POS score. However, in a multivariate model controlling for other factors, significant relationships did not hold. Newspaper coverage can be a marker of POS policy progression. Whether media can influence policy implementation remains an important question. Future work should continue to tease out and confirm the unique characteristics of media content that are most associated with subsequent policy progression, in order to inform media advocacy efforts.

Improved Quality in Aerospace Testing Through the Modern Design of Experiments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeLoach, R.

2000-01-01

This paper illustrates how, in the presence of systematic error, the quality of an experimental result can be influenced by the order in which the independent variables are set. It is suggested that in typical experimental circumstances in which systematic errors are significant, the common practice of organizing the set point order of independent variables to maximize data acquisition rate results in a test matrix that fails to produce the highest quality research result. With some care to match the volume of data required to satisfy inference error risk tolerances, it is possible to accept a lower rate of data acquisition and still produce results of higher technical quality (lower experimental error) with less cost and in less time than conventional test procedures, simply by optimizing the sequence in which independent variable levels are set.

A hierarchical Bayesian method for vibration-based time domain force reconstruction problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Qiaofeng; Lu, Qiuhai

2018-05-01

Traditional force reconstruction techniques require prior knowledge on the force nature to determine the regularization term. When such information is unavailable, the inappropriate term is easily chosen and the reconstruction result becomes unsatisfactory. In this paper, we propose a novel method to automatically determine the appropriate q as in ℓq regularization and reconstruct the force history. The method incorporates all to-be-determined variables such as the force history, precision parameters and q into a hierarchical Bayesian formulation. The posterior distributions of variables are evaluated by a Metropolis-within-Gibbs sampler. The point estimates of variables and their uncertainties are given. Simulations of a cantilever beam and a space truss under various loading conditions validate the proposed method in providing adaptive determination of q and better reconstruction performance than existing Bayesian methods.

Recent social and biogeophysical changes in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna, Mekong, and Amazon deltas as inputs into evolutionary policy-making.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Araujo Barbosa, C. C.; Hossain, S.; Szabo, S.; Matthews, Z.; Heard, S.; Dearing, J.

2014-12-01

Policy-making in social-ecological systems increasingly looks to iterative, evolutionary approaches that can address the inherent complexity of interactions between human wellbeing, agricultural and aquacultural production, and ecosystem services. Here we show how an analysis of available time-series in delta regions over past decades can provide important insight into the social-ecological system dynamics that result from the complexity. The presentation summarises the recent changes for major elements of each social-ecological system, for example demography, economy, health, climate, food, and water. Time-series data from official statistics, monitoring programmes and sequential satellite imagery are analysed to define the range of trends, the presence of change points, slow and fast variables, and the significant drivers of change. For example, in the Bangladesh delta zone, increasing gross domestic product and per capita income levels since the 1980s mirror rising levels of food and inland fish production. In contrast, non-food ecosystem services such as water availability, water quality and land stability have deteriorated. As a result, poverty alleviation is associated with environmental degradation. Trends in indicators of human wellbeing and ecosystem services point to widespread non-stationary dynamics governed by slowly changing variables with increased probability of systemic threshold changes/tipping points in the near future. We conclude by examining how the findings could feed into new management tools, such as system dynamic models and assessments of safe operating spaces. Such tools have the potential to help create policies that deliver alternative and sustainable paths for land management while accommodating social and environmental change.

Predictors of suicide and suicide attempt in subway stations: a population-based ecological study.

PubMed

Niederkrotenthaler, Thomas; Sonneck, Gernot; Dervic, Kanita; Nader, Ingo W; Voracek, Martin; Kapusta, Nestor D; Etzersdorfer, Elmar; Mittendorfer-Rutz, Ellenor; Dorner, Thomas

2012-04-01

Suicidal behavior on the subway often involves young people and has a considerable impact on public life, but little is known about factors associated with suicides and suicide attempts in specific subway stations. Between 1979 and 2009, 185 suicides and 107 suicide attempts occurred on the subway in Vienna, Austria. Station-specific suicide and suicide attempt rates (defined as the frequency of suicidal incidents per time period) were modeled as the outcome variables in bivariate and multivariate Poisson regression models. Structural station characteristics (presence of a surveillance unit, train types used, and construction on street level versus other construction), contextual station characteristics (neighborhood to historical sites, size of the catchment area, and in operation during time period of extensive media reporting on subway suicides), and passenger-based characteristics (number of passengers getting on the trains per day, use as meeting point by drug users, and socioeconomic status of the population in the catchment area) were used as the explanatory variables. In the multivariate analyses, subway suicides increased when stations were served by the faster train type. Subway suicide attempts increased with the daily number of passengers getting on the trains and with the stations' use as meeting points by drug users. The findings indicate that there are some differences between subway suicides and suicide attempts. Completed suicides seem to vary most with train type used. Suicide attempts seem to depend mostly on passenger-based characteristics, specifically on the station's crowdedness and on its use as meeting point by drug users. Suicide-preventive interventions should concentrate on crowded stations and on stations frequented by risk groups.

Travel Time Estimation Using Freeway Point Detector Data Based on Evolving Fuzzy Neural Inference System.

PubMed

Tang, Jinjun; Zou, Yajie; Ash, John; Zhang, Shen; Liu, Fang; Wang, Yinhai

2016-01-01

Travel time is an important measurement used to evaluate the extent of congestion within road networks. This paper presents a new method to estimate the travel time based on an evolving fuzzy neural inference system. The input variables in the system are traffic flow data (volume, occupancy, and speed) collected from loop detectors located at points both upstream and downstream of a given link, and the output variable is the link travel time. A first order Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy rule set is used to complete the inference. For training the evolving fuzzy neural network (EFNN), two learning processes are proposed: (1) a K-means method is employed to partition input samples into different clusters, and a Gaussian fuzzy membership function is designed for each cluster to measure the membership degree of samples to the cluster centers. As the number of input samples increases, the cluster centers are modified and membership functions are also updated; (2) a weighted recursive least squares estimator is used to optimize the parameters of the linear functions in the Takagi-Sugeno type fuzzy rules. Testing datasets consisting of actual and simulated data are used to test the proposed method. Three common criteria including mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), and mean absolute relative error (MARE) are utilized to evaluate the estimation performance. Estimation results demonstrate the accuracy and effectiveness of the EFNN method through comparison with existing methods including: multiple linear regression (MLR), instantaneous model (IM), linear model (LM), neural network (NN), and cumulative plots (CP).

Travel Time Estimation Using Freeway Point Detector Data Based on Evolving Fuzzy Neural Inference System

PubMed Central

Tang, Jinjun; Zou, Yajie; Ash, John; Zhang, Shen; Liu, Fang; Wang, Yinhai

2016-01-01

Travel time is an important measurement used to evaluate the extent of congestion within road networks. This paper presents a new method to estimate the travel time based on an evolving fuzzy neural inference system. The input variables in the system are traffic flow data (volume, occupancy, and speed) collected from loop detectors located at points both upstream and downstream of a given link, and the output variable is the link travel time. A first order Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy rule set is used to complete the inference. For training the evolving fuzzy neural network (EFNN), two learning processes are proposed: (1) a K-means method is employed to partition input samples into different clusters, and a Gaussian fuzzy membership function is designed for each cluster to measure the membership degree of samples to the cluster centers. As the number of input samples increases, the cluster centers are modified and membership functions are also updated; (2) a weighted recursive least squares estimator is used to optimize the parameters of the linear functions in the Takagi-Sugeno type fuzzy rules. Testing datasets consisting of actual and simulated data are used to test the proposed method. Three common criteria including mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), and mean absolute relative error (MARE) are utilized to evaluate the estimation performance. Estimation results demonstrate the accuracy and effectiveness of the EFNN method through comparison with existing methods including: multiple linear regression (MLR), instantaneous model (IM), linear model (LM), neural network (NN), and cumulative plots (CP). PMID:26829639

Real-time plasma control in a dual-frequency, confined plasma etcher

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Milosavljević, V.; Ellingboe, A. R.; Gaman, C.; Ringwood, J. V.

2008-04-01

The physics issues of developing model-based control of plasma etching are presented. A novel methodology for incorporating real-time model-based control of plasma processing systems is developed. The methodology is developed for control of two dependent variables (ion flux and chemical densities) by two independent controls (27 MHz power and O2 flow). A phenomenological physics model of the nonlinear coupling between the independent controls and the dependent variables of the plasma is presented. By using a design of experiment, the functional dependencies of the response surface are determined. In conjunction with the physical model, the dependencies are used to deconvolve the sensor signals onto the control inputs, allowing compensation of the interaction between control paths. The compensated sensor signals and compensated set-points are then used as inputs to proportional-integral-derivative controllers to adjust radio frequency power and oxygen flow to yield the desired ion flux and chemical density. To illustrate the methodology, model-based real-time control is realized in a commercial semiconductor dielectric etch chamber. The two radio frequency symmetric diode operates with typical commercial fluorocarbon feed-gas mixtures (Ar/O2/C4F8). Key parameters for dielectric etching are known to include ion flux to the surface and surface flux of oxygen containing species. Control is demonstrated using diagnostics of electrode-surface ion current, and chemical densities of O, O2, and CO measured by optical emission spectrometry and/or mass spectrometry. Using our model-based real-time control, the set-point tracking accuracy to changes in chemical species density and ion flux is enhanced.

Predicting critical thresholds in outlet glacier terminus behavior, Disko and Uummannaq Bays, West Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

York, A.; Frey, K. E.; Das, S. B.

2017-12-01

The seasonal and interannual variability in outlet glacier terminus position is an important indicator of overall glacier health and the net effects of ice-ocean-atmosphere interactions. However, challenges arise in determining a primary driver of glacier change, as the magnitude of retreat observed at the terminus is controlled not only by atmospheric and oceanic temperatures, but also physical constraints unique to each glacier (e.g., ice mélange buttressing and underlying bedrock/bathymetry) which often lead to a non-linear response to climate. For example, previous studies have shown varying magnitudes of terminus retreat over the last 40 years at glaciers in West Greenland, despite exposure to similar atmospheric forcings. Satellite imagery can provide the necessary spatially- and temporally-extensive resource for monitoring glacier terminus behavior. Here, we constructed a time series of 18 glacier termini digitized from over 1200 all-season Landsat images between 1985 and 2015 within Disko and Uummannaq Bays, West Greenland. We calculated change points in the annual maximum terminus retreat of the glaciers using a bootstrapping algorithm within a change point detection software. We interpolated the average monthly retreat of each terminus in order to calculate the average seasonal amplitude of each year. We found the 11 glaciers in Uummannaq Bay retreated an average of -1.26 ± 1.36 km, while the seven glaciers in Disko Bay averaged -1.13 ± 0.82 km. The majority of glaciers retreated, yet we see no latitudinal trend in magnitude of retreat on either a seasonal or long-term scale. We observe change points in the annual maximum retreat of four glacier termini in Uummannaq Bay and one in Disko Bay which are generally coincident with increased summer sea surface temperatures. In some cases, we observed smaller interannual variability in the average seasonal amplitude of years leading up to a critical threshold, followed by an increase in seasonal variability in the year prior and throughout the regime shift, until returning to a similar range of variability observed prior to the shift. As such, our findings may provide a method to predict an approaching change point at glacier termini which have not yet crossed a critical threshold through observations of increases in seasonal amplitude variability.

Optimal variable flip angle schemes for dynamic acquisition of exchanging hyperpolarized substrates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xing, Yan; Reed, Galen D.; Pauly, John M.; Kerr, Adam B.; Larson, Peder E. Z.

2013-09-01

In metabolic MRI with hyperpolarized contrast agents, the signal levels vary over time due to T1 decay, T2 decay following RF excitations, and metabolic conversion. Efficient usage of the nonrenewable hyperpolarized magnetization requires specialized RF pulse schemes. In this work, we introduce two novel variable flip angle schemes for dynamic hyperpolarized MRI in which the flip angle is varied between excitations and between metabolites. These were optimized to distribute the magnetization relatively evenly throughout the acquisition by accounting for T1 decay, prior RF excitations, and metabolic conversion. Simulation results are presented to confirm the flip angle designs and evaluate the variability of signal dynamics across typical ranges of T1 and metabolic conversion. They were implemented using multiband spectral-spatial RF pulses to independently modulate the flip angle at various chemical shift frequencies. With these schemes we observed increased SNR of [1-13C]lactate generated from [1-13C]pyruvate, particularly at later time points. This will allow for improved characterization of tissue perfusion and metabolic profiles in dynamic hyperpolarized MRI.

How the variability issue was uncovered: the history of the UK residue variability findings.

PubMed

Harris, C A

2000-07-01

As a result of routine monitoring data on carrots generated in the 1990s indicating MRL exceedances, further studies showed that residues of organophosphorus compounds in individual roots could vary up to 25 times the levels found in composite samples. Additional work found that this phenomenon also extended to other crops including apples, peaches and celery. Variability (defined as the highest residue level found in any one crop item divided by the level found in a composite sample from the same batch) of up to 34 times mean values was found in one batch of plums. Conventional deterministic methods used in consumer assessments were likely to give gross overestimates of short-term exposure because of the assumptions employed. This led to the development of probabilistic models which made the best use of all available information and was capable of indicating percentages of consumers that could exceed relevant toxicological end points. This indicated that there was unlikely to be serious health effects as a result of ingesting these residues and has subsequently proved to be a useful aid to regulatory decision making.

Implications for Nucleus Heterogeneity from the Comparison of Pre- and Post-Equinox Neutral ROSINA Observations Inbound and Outbound Beyond 3 AU

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luspay-Kuti, A.; Altwegg, K.; Berthelier, J. J.; Beth, A.; Dhooghe, F.; Fiethe, B.; Fuselier, S. A.; Gombosi, T. I.; Hansen, K. C.; Hässig, M.; Mall, U.; Mandt, K.; Mousis, O.; Steven, P. M.; Rubin, M.; Trattner, K. J.; Tzou, C. Y.; Wurz, P.

2017-12-01

Pre-equinox ROSINA/DFMS measurements revealed a strongly heterogeneous coma. The concentrations of major and various minor volatile species were found to depend on the latitude and longitude of the nadir point of the spacecraft. The observed time variability of coma species remained consistent for about three months up to equinox. The chemical variability could be generally interpreted in terms of temperature and seasonal effects superposed on some kind of nucleus heterogeneity. We compare here pre-equinox (inbound) ROSINA/DFMS measurements from 2014 to measurements taken after the outbound equinox in 2016, both at heliocentric distances larger than 3 AU. For a direct comparison we limit our observations to the southern, poorly illuminated hemisphere only. We report the similarities and differences in the concentrations and time variability of neutral species under similar insolation conditions (heliocentric distance, season) pre- and post-equinox, and interpret them in light of the pre-equinox observations. Such direct comparison of the neutral behavior is important to better understand the evolution of cometary outgassing.

A longitudinal study of the relationship between work engagement and symptoms of anxiety and depression.

PubMed

Innstrand, Siw Tone; Langballe, Ellen Melbye; Falkum, Erik

2012-02-01

This longitudinal study examined the dynamic relationship between work engagement (vigour and dedication) and symptoms of anxiety and depression. A sample of 3475 respondents from eight different occupational groups (lawyers, physicians, nurses, teachers, church ministers, bus drivers, people working in advertising and people working in information technology) in Norway supplied data at two points in time with a 2-year time interval. The advantages of longitudinal design were utilized, including testing of reversed causation and controlling for unmeasured third variables. In general, the results showed that the hypothesized normal causal relationship was superior to a reversed causation model. In other words, this study supported the assumption that work engagement is more likely to be the antecedent for symptoms of depression and anxiety than the outcome. In particular, the vigour facet of work engagement provides lower levels of depression and anxiety 2 years later. However, additional analyses modelling unmeasured third variables indicate that unknown third variables may have created some spurious effects on the pattern of the observed relationship. Implications of the findings are discussed in the paper. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Determining the Ocean's Role on the Variable Gravity Field and Earth Rotation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ponte, Rui M.; Frey, H. (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

A number of ocean models of different complexity have been used to study changes in the oceanic angular momentum (OAM) and mass fields and their relation to the variable Earth rotation and gravity field. Time scales examined range from seasonal to a few days. Results point to the importance of oceanic signals in driving polar motion, in particular the Chandler and annual wobbles. Results also show that oceanic signals have a measurable impact on length-of-day variations. Various circulation features and associated mass signals, including the North Pacific subtropical gyre, the equatorial currents, and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current play a significant role in oceanic angular momentum variability. The impact on OAM values of an optimization procedure that uses available data to constrain ocean model results was also tested for the first time. The optimization procedure yielded substantial changes, in OAM, related to adjustments in both motion and mass fields,as well as in the wind stress torques acting on the ocean. Constrained OAM values were found to yield noticeable improvements in the agreement with the observed Earth rotation parameters, particularly at the seasonal timescale.

Modeling seasonal variation of hip fracture in Montreal, Canada.

PubMed

Modarres, Reza; Ouarda, Taha B M J; Vanasse, Alain; Orzanco, Maria Gabriela; Gosselin, Pierre

2012-04-01

The investigation of the association of the climate variables with hip fracture incidences is important in social health issues. This study examined and modeled the seasonal variation of monthly population based hip fracture rate (HFr) time series. The seasonal ARIMA time series modeling approach is used to model monthly HFr incidences time series of female and male patients of the ages 40-74 and 75+ of Montreal, Québec province, Canada, in the period of 1993-2004. The correlation coefficients between meteorological variables such as temperature, snow depth, rainfall depth and day length and HFr are significant. The nonparametric Mann-Kendall test for trend assessment and the nonparametric Levene's test and Wilcoxon's test for checking the difference of HFr before and after change point are also used. The seasonality in HFr indicated sharp difference between winter and summer time. The trend assessment showed decreasing trends in HFr of female and male groups. The nonparametric test also indicated a significant change of the mean HFr. A seasonal ARIMA model was applied for HFr time series without trend and a time trend ARIMA model (TT-ARIMA) was developed and fitted to HFr time series with a significant trend. The multi criteria evaluation showed the adequacy of SARIMA and TT-ARIMA models for modeling seasonal hip fracture time series with and without significant trend. In the time series analysis of HFr of the Montreal region, the effects of the seasonal variation of climate variables on hip fracture are clear. The Seasonal ARIMA model is useful for modeling HFr time series without trend. However, for time series with significant trend, the TT-ARIMA model should be applied for modeling HFr time series. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predictors of First-Year Sultan Qaboos University Students' Grade Point Average

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Alkhausi, Hussain Ali; Al-Yahmadi, Hamad; Al-Kalbani, Muna; Clayton, David; Al-Barwani, Thuwayba; Al-Sulaimani, Humaira; Neisler, Otherine; Khan, Mohammad Athar

2015-01-01

This study investigated predictors of first-year university grade point average (GPA) using academic and nonacademic variables. Data were collected from 1511 Omani students selected conveniently from the population of students entering Sultan Qaboos University (SQU) in Fall 2010. Variables considered in the analysis were general education diploma…

A Lyapunov based approach to energy maximization in renewable energy technologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iyasere, Erhun

This dissertation describes the design and implementation of Lyapunov-based control strategies for the maximization of the power captured by renewable energy harnessing technologies such as (i) a variable speed, variable pitch wind turbine, (ii) a variable speed wind turbine coupled to a doubly fed induction generator, and (iii) a solar power generating system charging a constant voltage battery. First, a torque control strategy is presented to maximize wind energy captured in variable speed, variable pitch wind turbines at low to medium wind speeds. The proposed strategy applies control torque to the wind turbine pitch and rotor subsystems to simultaneously control the blade pitch and tip speed ratio, via the rotor angular speed, to an optimum point at which the capture efficiency is maximum. The control method allows for aerodynamic rotor power maximization without exact knowledge of the wind turbine model. A series of numerical results show that the wind turbine can be controlled to achieve maximum energy capture. Next, a control strategy is proposed to maximize the wind energy captured in a variable speed wind turbine, with an internal induction generator, at low to medium wind speeds. The proposed strategy controls the tip speed ratio, via the rotor angular speed, to an optimum point at which the efficiency constant (or power coefficient) is maximal for a particular blade pitch angle and wind speed by using the generator rotor voltage as a control input. This control method allows for aerodynamic rotor power maximization without exact wind turbine model knowledge. Representative numerical results demonstrate that the wind turbine can be controlled to achieve near maximum energy capture. Finally, a power system consisting of a photovoltaic (PV) array panel, dc-to-dc switching converter, charging a battery is considered wherein the environmental conditions are time-varying. A backstepping PWM controller is developed to maximize the power of the solar generating system. The controller tracks a desired array voltage, designed online using an incremental conductance extremum-seeking algorithm, by varying the duty cycle of the switching converter. The stability of the control algorithm is demonstrated by means of Lyapunov analysis. Representative numerical results demonstrate that the grid power system can be controlled to track the maximum power point of the photovoltaic array panel in varying atmospheric conditions. Additionally, the performance of the proposed strategy is compared to the typical maximum power point tracking (MPPT) method of perturb and observe (P&O), where the converter dynamics are ignored, and is shown to yield better results.

Reply to Comment by Laprise on 'the Added Value to Global Model Projections of Climate Change by Dynamical Downscaling: a Case Study over the Continental U.S. Using the GISS-ModelE2 and WRF Models'

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shindell, Drew Todd; Racherla, Pavan; Milly, George Peter

2014-01-01

In his comment, Laprise raises several points that we agree merit consideration. His primary critique is that our study [Racherla et al., 2012] tested the ability of the WRF regional climate model to reproduce historical temperature and precipitation change relative to the driving global climate model (GCM) using only a single simulation rather than an ensemble. He asserts that the observed changes are smaller than the internal variability in the climate system (i.e., not statistically significant) and that thus a single simulation should not necessarily be able to capture the observations. Laprise points out that the statistical signal is reduced for a multi-decadal trend such as the one we analyzed in comparison with mean climatology and cites two studies showing that for particular climate parameters it can take any years for a signal to be discerned over internal variability. He states that The results of theexperiment as designed were strongly influenced by the presence of internal variability and sampling errors,which masked the rather small climate changes that may have occurred as a consequence of changes inforcing during the period considered. While Laprise discusses statistics in general terms at some length, for the actual climate trends examined in our study, he offers no evidence that the forced signal was smallcompared with internal variability. The two studies he cites [de Ela et al., 2013; Maraun, 2013] do not provide convincing evidence as they concern climate variables averaged over different times and areas. One in fact examines extreme precipitation events, which by definition are rare and thus have a lower significance level. We accept the general point that it is important to consider internal variability, and as noted in our paper we agree that an ensemble of simulations is in principle an optimal, though computationally expensive, approach. While we did not present the statistical significance of the observations in our original paper, we have now evaluated those for the regional temperature trends used in our study to evaluate the added value of WRF and thus can analyze data as to the magnitude of the trends with respect to internal variability.

How Much Is Too Little to Detect Impacts? A Case Study of a Nuclear Power Plant

PubMed Central

Széchy, Maria T. M.; Viana, Mariana S.; Curbelo-Fernandez, Maria P.; Lavrado, Helena P.; Junqueira, Andrea O. R.; Vilanova, Eduardo; Silva, Sérgio H. G.

2012-01-01

Several approaches have been proposed to assess impacts on natural assemblages. Ideally, the potentially impacted site and multiple reference sites are sampled through time, before and after the impact. Often, however, the lack of information regarding the potential overall impact, the lack of knowledge about the environment in many regions worldwide, budgets constraints and the increasing dimensions of human activities compromise the reliability of the impact assessment. We evaluated the impact, if any, and its extent of a nuclear power plant effluent on sessile epibiota assemblages using a suitable and feasible sampling design with no ‘before’ data and budget and logistic constraints. Assemblages were sampled at multiple times and at increasing distances from the point of the discharge of the effluent. There was a clear and localized effect of the power plant effluent (up to 100 m from the point of the discharge). However, depending on the time of the year, the impact reaches up to 600 m. We found a significantly lower richness of taxa in the Effluent site when compared to other sites. Furthermore, at all times, the variability of assemblages near the discharge was also smaller than in other sites. Although the sampling design used here (in particular the number of replicates) did not allow an unambiguously evaluation of the full extent of the impact in relation to its intensity and temporal variability, the multiple temporal and spatial scales used allowed the detection of some differences in the intensity of the impact, depending on the time of sampling. Our findings greatly contribute to increase the knowledge on the effects of multiple stressors caused by the effluent of a power plant and also have important implications for management strategies and conservation ecology, in general. PMID:23110117

How much is too little to detect impacts? A case study of a nuclear power plant.

PubMed

Mayer-Pinto, Mariana; Ignacio, Barbara L; Széchy, Maria T M; Viana, Mariana S; Curbelo-Fernandez, Maria P; Lavrado, Helena P; Junqueira, Andrea O R; Vilanova, Eduardo; Silva, Sérgio H G

2012-01-01

Several approaches have been proposed to assess impacts on natural assemblages. Ideally, the potentially impacted site and multiple reference sites are sampled through time, before and after the impact. Often, however, the lack of information regarding the potential overall impact, the lack of knowledge about the environment in many regions worldwide, budgets constraints and the increasing dimensions of human activities compromise the reliability of the impact assessment. We evaluated the impact, if any, and its extent of a nuclear power plant effluent on sessile epibiota assemblages using a suitable and feasible sampling design with no 'before' data and budget and logistic constraints. Assemblages were sampled at multiple times and at increasing distances from the point of the discharge of the effluent. There was a clear and localized effect of the power plant effluent (up to 100 m from the point of the discharge). However, depending on the time of the year, the impact reaches up to 600 m. We found a significantly lower richness of taxa in the Effluent site when compared to other sites. Furthermore, at all times, the variability of assemblages near the discharge was also smaller than in other sites. Although the sampling design used here (in particular the number of replicates) did not allow an unambiguously evaluation of the full extent of the impact in relation to its intensity and temporal variability, the multiple temporal and spatial scales used allowed the detection of some differences in the intensity of the impact, depending on the time of sampling. Our findings greatly contribute to increase the knowledge on the effects of multiple stressors caused by the effluent of a power plant and also have important implications for management strategies and conservation ecology, in general.

Predicting the La Niña of 2020-21: Termination of Solar Cycles and Correlated Variance in Solar and Atmospheric Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leamon, R. J.; McIntosh, S. W.

2017-12-01

Establishing a solid physical connection between solar and tropospheric variability has posed a considerable challenge across the spectrum of Earth-system science. Over the past few years a new picture to describe solar variability has developed, based on observing, understanding and tracing the progression, interaction and intrinsic variability of the magnetized activity bands that belong to the Sun's 22-year magnetic activity cycle. The intra- and extra-hemispheric interaction of these magnetic bands appear to explain the occurrence of decadal scale variability that primarily manifests itself in the sunspot cycle. However, on timescales of ten months or so, those bands posses their own internal variability with an amplitude of the same order of magnitude as the decadal scale. The latter have been tied to the existence of magnetized Rossby waves in the solar convection zone that result in surges of magnetic flux emergence that correspondingly modulate our star's radiative and particulate output. One of the most important events in the progression of these bands is their (apparent) termination at the solar equator that signals a global increase in magnetic flux emergence that becomes the new solar cycle. We look at the particulate and radiative implications of these termination points, their temporal recurrence and signature, from the Sun to the Earth, and show the correlated signature of solar cycle termination events and major oceanic oscillations that extend back many decades. A combined one-two punch of reduced particulate forcing and increased radiative forcing that result from the termination of one solar cycle and rapid blossoming of another correlates strongly with a shift from El Niño to La Niña conditions in the Pacific Ocean. This shift does not occur at solar minima, nor solar maxima, but at a particular, non-periodic, time in between. The failure to identify these termination points, and their relative irregularity, have inhibited a correlation to be observed and physical processes to be studied. This result potentially opens the door to a broader understanding of solar variability on our planet and its weather. Ongoing tracking of solar magnetic band migration indicates that Cycle 24 will terminate in the 2020 timeframe and thus we may expect to see an attendant shift to La Niña conditions at that time.

Development of criteria for the use of asphalt-rubber as a Stress-Absorbing Membrane Interlayer (SAMI)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Newcomb, D. E.; McKeen, R. G.

1983-12-01

This report documents over 2 years of research efforts to characterize asphalt-rubber mixtures to be used in Stress-Absorbing Membrane Interlayers (SAMI). The purpose of these SAMIs is to retard or prevent reflection cracking in asphalt-concrete overlays. Several laboratory experiments and one field trial were conducted to define significant test methods and parameters for incorporation into construction design and specification documents. Test methods used in this study included a modified softening point test, force-ductility, and Schweyer viscosity. Variables investigated included (1) Laboratory-mixing temperature; (2) Rubber type; (3) Laboratory storage time; (4) Laboratory storage condition; (5) Laboratory batch replication; (6) Laboratory mixing time; (7) Field mixing time; (8) Laboratory test temperature; (9) Force-Ductility elongation rates; and (10) Asphalt grade. It was found that mixing temperature, mixing time, rubber type, and asphalt grade all have significant effects upon the behavior of asphalt-rubber mixtures. Significant variability was also noticed in different laboratory batch replications. Varying laboratory test temperature and force-ductility elongation rate revealed further differences in asphalt-rubber mixtures.

Mediators of the Development and Prevention of Violent Behavior

PubMed Central

Morgan-Lopez, Antonio A.; Howard, Terry-Lee; Browne, Dorothy C.; Flay, Brian R.

2008-01-01

The purpose of this investigation was to determine if the Aban Aya Youth Project, a culturally grounded intervention, produced differences in changes over time in core intervening variables (i.e., communal value orientation, empathy, violence avoidance efficacy beliefs) and whether these variables mediated intervention effects on the development of youth violent behavior. Fifth grade cohorts at 12 schools were randomly assigned to one of two intervention conditions or an attention placebo control condition and followed longitudinally through eighth grade. A total of 668 students (49% male) participated in the study. Mediation analyses suggested that both program conditions (as compared to the control condition) led to steeper increases over time in empathy which, in turn were related to reductions in the likelihood of violent behavior over time. No other significant program effects were detected, although changes over time in violence avoidance efficacy were associated with reduced likelihood of violent behavior. Findings are discussed in terms of theory development, program development and points of refinement of the Aban Aya Youth Project and implications for future research. PMID:17558552

The validity of ACT-PEP test scores for predicting academic performance of registered nurses in BSN programs.

PubMed

Yang, J C; Noble, J

1990-01-01

This study investigated the validity of three American College Testing-Proficiency Examination Program (ACT-PEP) tests (Maternal and Child Nursing, Psychiatric/Mental Health Nursing, Adult Nursing) for predicting the academic performance of registered nurses (RNs) enrolled in bachelor's degree BSN programs nationwide. This study also examined RN students' performance on the ACT-PEP tests by their demographic characteristics: student's age, sex, race, student status (full- or part-time), and employment status (full- or part-time). The total sample for the three tests comprised 2,600 students from eight institutions nationwide. The median correlation coefficients between the three ACT-PEP tests and the semester grade point averages ranged from .36 to .56. Median correlation coefficients increased over time, supporting the stability of ACT-PEP test scores for predicting academic performance over time. The relative importance of selected independent variables for predicting academic performance was also examined; the most important variable for predicting academic performance was typically the ACT-PEP test score. Across the institutions, student demographic characteristics did not contribute significantly to explaining academic performance, over and above ACT-PEP scores.

A Longitudinal Study of Financial Difficulties and Mental Health in a National Sample of British Undergraduate Students.

PubMed

Richardson, Thomas; Elliott, Peter; Roberts, Ron; Jansen, Megan

2017-04-01

Previous research has shown a relationship between financial difficulties and poor mental health in students, but most research is cross-sectional. To examine longitudinal relationships over time between financial variables and mental health in students. A national sample of 454 first year British undergraduate students completed measures of mental health and financial variables at up to four time points across a year. Cross-sectional relationships were found between poorer mental health and female gender, having a disability and non-white ethnicity. Greater financial difficulties predicted greater depression and stress cross-sectionally, and also predicted poorer anxiety, global mental health and alcohol dependence over time. Depression worsened over time for those who had considered abandoning studies or not coming to university for financial reasons, and there were effects for how students viewed their student loan. Anxiety and alcohol dependence also predicted worsening financial situation suggesting a bi-directional relationship. Financial difficulties appear to lead to poor mental health in students with the possibility of a vicious cycle occurring.

Ideal evolution of magnetohydrodynamic turbulence when imposing Taylor-Green symmetries.

PubMed

Brachet, M E; Bustamante, M D; Krstulovic, G; Mininni, P D; Pouquet, A; Rosenberg, D

2013-01-01

We investigate the ideal and incompressible magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) equations in three space dimensions for the development of potentially singular structures. The methodology consists in implementing the fourfold symmetries of the Taylor-Green vortex generalized to MHD, leading to substantial computer time and memory savings at a given resolution; we also use a regridding method that allows for lower-resolution runs at early times, with no loss of spectral accuracy. One magnetic configuration is examined at an equivalent resolution of 6144(3) points and three different configurations on grids of 4096(3) points. At the highest resolution, two different current and vorticity sheet systems are found to collide, producing two successive accelerations in the development of small scales. At the latest time, a convergence of magnetic field lines to the location of maximum current is probably leading locally to a strong bending and directional variability of such lines. A novel analytical method, based on sharp analysis inequalities, is used to assess the validity of the finite-time singularity scenario. This method allows one to rule out spurious singularities by evaluating the rate at which the logarithmic decrement of the analyticity-strip method goes to zero. The result is that the finite-time singularity scenario cannot be ruled out, and the singularity time could be somewhere between t=2.33 and t=2.70. More robust conclusions will require higher resolution runs and grid-point interpolation measurements of maximum current and vorticity.

Variability of Passing Grades in Undergraduate Nursing Education Programs in New York State.

PubMed

Reynolds, Diane

2015-01-01

The purpose of this descriptive study was to provide information about passing grades and their corresponding numeric grades for undergraduate nursing programs in New York State. An additional purpose was to report on differences in grading between faculty teaching in associate versus baccalaureate nursing programs, full-time versus adjunct faculty, and tenured versus nontenured faculty. There is a paucity of research on grade variability in undergraduate nursing programs. Three hundred eighty-four full-time and 96 adjunct faculty responded to an invitation to complete an online survey. Grades are not uniformly awarded across institutions. Passing grades ranged from 70 to 85 percent (C- to B+, respectively), with a mean of 74.79 percent. Wide variations in grades in different institutions across the country may undermine grade point average as a reliable measure of education, making it difficult to evaluate individual student performance.

Assessing medication effects in the MTA study using neuropsychological outcomes.

PubMed

Epstein, Jeffery N; Conners, C Keith; Hervey, Aaron S; Tonev, Simon T; Arnold, L Eugene; Abikoff, Howard B; Elliott, Glen; Greenhill, Laurence L; Hechtman, Lily; Hoagwood, Kimberly; Hinshaw, Stephen P; Hoza, Betsy; Jensen, Peter S; March, John S; Newcorn, Jeffrey H; Pelham, William E; Severe, Joanne B; Swanson, James M; Wells, Karen; Vitiello, Benedetto; Wigal, Timothy

2006-05-01

While studies have increasingly investigated deficits in reaction time (RT) and RT variability in children with attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), few studies have examined the effects of stimulant medication on these important neuropsychological outcome measures. 316 children who participated in the Multimodal Treatment Study of Children with ADHD (MTA) completed the Conners' Continuous Performance Test (CPT) at the 24-month assessment point. Outcome measures included standard CPT outcomes (e.g., errors of commission, mean hit reaction time (RT)) and RT indicators derived from an Ex-Gaussian distributional model (i.e., mu, sigma, and tau). Analyses revealed significant effects of medication across all neuropsychological outcome measures. Results on the Ex-Gaussian outcome measures revealed that stimulant medication slows RT and reduces RT variability. This demonstrates the importance of including analytic strategies that can accurately model the actual distributional pattern, including the positive skew. Further, the results of the study relate to several theoretical models of ADHD.

ICD-10 mental and behavioural disorders due to use of crack and powder cocaine as treated at a public psychiatric emergency service: an analysis of visit predictors.

PubMed

da Cruz, Thalita Alves; da Cunha, Gustavo Nunes; de Moraes, Vinicius Papa Milani; Massarini, Renata; Yoshida, Camila Mie Kawata; Tenguam, Patrícia Tomiatto; Garcia, Marcelo Valeiro; Varoto, Daniela Arruda; de Oliveira, Murilo Barutti; de Andrade, Arthur Guerra; de Azevedo-Marques Périco, Cíntia; do Nascimento, Vania Barbosa; Castaldelli-Maia, João Mauricio

2014-08-01

The present study investigated the predictors of an increased number of visits from individuals with some of the diagnoses noted in chapter F14 of ICD-10, from calls to the emergency psychiatric unit of a general hospital in São Paulo state, Brazil, in the period 2011-2012. Poisson regression models were carried out for the outcome variable, accounting for number of subsequent visits to the psychiatric emergency unit. For the analysis of this outcome we took into account the exposure time of each individual in the study. Our findings point to a population at risk for frequent psychiatric emergency service visits: individuals over 25 years. This population should be targeted for interventions on entry into public healthcare due to increased psychiatric morbidity and greater clinical morbidity already confirmed by previous studies. We discussed the need of these individuals for special attention during the clinical or psychiatric emergency consultation which, unfortunately, may be the access point for the public health system. None of the other variables were related to the outcome of interest, such as those related to the level of individual entry into the care network before and after treatment, and other variables related to medical acts during the visit.

Pneumatic Variable Series Elastic Actuator.

PubMed

Zheng, Hao; Wu, Molei; Shen, Xiangrong

2016-08-01

Inspired by human motor control theory, stiffness control is highly effective in manipulation and human-interactive tasks. The implementation of stiffness control in robotic systems, however, has largely been limited to closed-loop control, and suffers from multiple issues such as limited frequency range, potential instability, and lack of contribution to energy efficiency. Variable-stiffness actuator represents a better solution, but the current designs are complex, heavy, and bulky. The approach in this paper seeks to address these issues by using pneumatic actuator as a variable series elastic actuator (VSEA), leveraging the compressibility of the working fluid. In this work, a pneumatic actuator is modeled as an elastic element with controllable stiffness and equilibrium point, both of which are functions of air masses in the two chambers. As such, for the implementation of stiffness control in a robotic system, the desired stiffness/equilibrium point can be converted to the desired chamber air masses, and a predictive pressure control approach is developed to control the timing of valve switching to obtain the desired air mass while minimizing control action. Experimental results showed that the new approach in this paper requires less expensive hardware (on-off valve instead of proportional valve), causes less control action in implementation, and provides good control performance by leveraging the inherent dynamics of the actuator.

Spatiotemporal drought variability of the eastern Tibetan Plateau during the last millennium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, Yang; Gou, Xiaohua; Gao, Linlin; Yang, Meixue; Zhang, Fen

2017-09-01

Tibetan Plateau is the headwater region of many major Asian rivers and very susceptive to climate change. Therefore, knowledge about climate and its spatiotemporal variability in this area is very important for ecological conservation, water resource management and social development. The aim of this study was to reconstruct and analyze the hydroclimate variation on eastern Tibetan Plateau (ETP) over many centuries and explore possible forcing factors on regional hydroclimate variability. We used 118 tree-ring chronologies from ETP to reconstruct the gridded May-July Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index for the ETP over the last millennium. The reconstruction was developed using an ensemble point-by-point reconstruction method, and a searching region method was used to locate the candidate tree-ring chronologies. The reconstructions have nicely captured the spatial and temporal features of the regional drought variation. The drought variations in south and north of 32.5°N are notably different, which may be related to the divergence influence of North Atlantic Oscillation on the climate systems in the south and north, as well as differences in local climate. Spectral analysis and series comparison suggest that the drought variation in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau has been possibly influenced by solar activity on centurial and longer time scale.

Pneumatic Variable Series Elastic Actuator

PubMed Central

Zheng, Hao; Wu, Molei; Shen, Xiangrong

2016-01-01

Inspired by human motor control theory, stiffness control is highly effective in manipulation and human-interactive tasks. The implementation of stiffness control in robotic systems, however, has largely been limited to closed-loop control, and suffers from multiple issues such as limited frequency range, potential instability, and lack of contribution to energy efficiency. Variable-stiffness actuator represents a better solution, but the current designs are complex, heavy, and bulky. The approach in this paper seeks to address these issues by using pneumatic actuator as a variable series elastic actuator (VSEA), leveraging the compressibility of the working fluid. In this work, a pneumatic actuator is modeled as an elastic element with controllable stiffness and equilibrium point, both of which are functions of air masses in the two chambers. As such, for the implementation of stiffness control in a robotic system, the desired stiffness/equilibrium point can be converted to the desired chamber air masses, and a predictive pressure control approach is developed to control the timing of valve switching to obtain the desired air mass while minimizing control action. Experimental results showed that the new approach in this paper requires less expensive hardware (on–off valve instead of proportional valve), causes less control action in implementation, and provides good control performance by leveraging the inherent dynamics of the actuator. PMID:27354755