Sample records for variable-coefficient gardner model

  1. Kinematic parameters of internal waves of the second mode in the South China Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kurkina, Oxana; Talipova, Tatyana; Soomere, Tarmo; Giniyatullin, Ayrat; Kurkin, Andrey

    2017-10-01

    Spatial distributions of the main properties of the mode function and kinematic and non-linear parameters of internal waves of the second mode are derived for the South China Sea for typical summer conditions in July. The calculations are based on the Generalized Digital Environmental Model (GDEM) climatology of hydrological variables, from which the local stratification is evaluated. The focus is on the phase speed of long internal waves and the coefficients at the dispersive, quadratic and cubic terms of the weakly non-linear Gardner model. Spatial distributions of these parameters, except for the coefficient at the cubic term, are qualitatively similar for waves of both modes. The dispersive term of Gardner's equation and phase speed for internal waves of the second mode are about a quarter and half, respectively, of those for waves of the first mode. Similarly to the waves of the first mode, the coefficients at the quadratic and cubic terms of Gardner's equation are practically independent of water depth. In contrast to the waves of the first mode, for waves of the second mode the quadratic term is mostly negative. The results can serve as a basis for expressing estimates of the expected parameters of internal waves for the South China Sea.

  2. Equivalence transformations and conservation laws for a generalized variable-coefficient Gardner equation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de la Rosa, R.; Gandarias, M. L.; Bruzón, M. S.

    2016-11-01

    In this paper we study the generalized variable-coefficient Gardner equations of the form ut + A(t) unux + C(t) u2nux + B(t) uxxx + Q(t) u = 0 . This class broadens out many other equations previously considered: Johnpillai and Khalique (2010), Molati and Ramollo (2012) and Vaneeva et al. (2015). The use of the equivalence group of this class allows us to perform an exhaustive study and a simple and clear formulation of the results. Some conservation laws are derived for the nonlinearly self-adjoint equations by using a general theorem on conservation laws. We also construct conservation laws by applying the multipliers method.

  3. A descriptivist approach to trait conceptualization and inference.

    PubMed

    Jonas, Katherine G; Markon, Kristian E

    2016-01-01

    In their recent article, How Functionalist and Process Approaches to Behavior Can Explain Trait Covariation, Wood, Gardner, and Harms (2015) underscore the need for more process-based understandings of individual differences. At the same time, the article illustrates a common error in the use and interpretation of latent variable models: namely, the misuse of models to arbitrate issues of causation and the nature of latent variables. Here, we explain how latent variables can be understood simply as parsimonious summaries of data, and how statistical inference can be based on choosing those summaries that minimize information required to represent the data using the model. Although Wood, Gardner, and Harms acknowledge this perspective, they underestimate its significance, including its importance to modeling and the conceptualization of psychological measurement. We believe this perspective has important implications for understanding individual differences in a number of domains, including current debates surrounding the role of formative versus reflective latent variables. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  4. Adsorption Behavior of Heat Modified Soybean Oil via Boundary Lubrication Coefficient of Friction Measurements

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    The frictional behaviors of soybean oil and heat modified soybean oils with different Gardner scale viscosities as additives in hexadecane have been examined in a boundary lubrication test regime (steel contacts) using Langmuir adsorption model. The free energy of adsorption (delta-Gads) of various...

  5. Propagation regimes and populations of internal waves in the Mediterranean Sea basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kurkina, Oxana; Rouvinskaya, Ekaterina; Talipova, Tatiana; Soomere, Tarmo

    2017-02-01

    The geographical and seasonal distributions of kinematic and nonlinear parameters of long internal waves are derived from the Generalized Digital Environmental Model (GDEM) climatology for the Mediterranean Sea region, including the Black Sea. The considered parameters are phase speed of long internal waves and the coefficients at the dispersion, quadratic and cubic terms of the weakly-nonlinear Korteweg-de Vries-type models (in particular, the Gardner model). These parameters govern the possible polarities and shapes of solitary internal waves, their limiting amplitudes and propagation speeds. The key outcome is an express estimate of the expected parameters of internal waves for different regions of the Mediterranean basin.

  6. Initial-value problem for the Gardner equation applied to nonlinear internal waves

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rouvinskaya, Ekaterina; Kurkina, Oxana; Kurkin, Andrey; Talipova, Tatiana; Pelinovsky, Efim

    2017-04-01

    The Gardner equation is a fundamental mathematical model for the description of weakly nonlinear weakly dispersive internal waves, when cubic nonlinearity cannot be neglected. Within this model coefficients of quadratic and cubic nonlinearity can both be positive as well as negative, depending on background conditions of the medium, where waves propagate (sea water density stratification, shear flow profile) [Rouvinskaya et al., 2014, Kurkina et al., 2011, 2015]. For the investigation of weakly dispersive behavior in the framework of nondimensional Gardner equation with fixed (positive) sign of quadratic nonlinearity and positive or negative cubic nonlinearity {eq1} partial η/partial t+6η( {1± η} )partial η/partial x+partial ^3η/partial x^3=0, } the series of numerical experiments of initial-value problem was carried out for evolution of a bell-shaped impulse of negative polarity (opposite to the sign of quadratic nonlinear coefficient): {eq2} η(x,t=0)=-asech2 ( {x/x0 } ), for which amplitude a and width x0 was varied. Similar initial-value problem was considered in the paper [Trillo et al., 2016] for the Korteweg - de Vries equation. For the Gardner equation with different signs of cubic nonlinearity the initial-value problem for piece-wise constant initial condition was considered in detail in [Grimshaw et al., 2002, 2010]. It is widely known, for example, [Pelinovsky et al., 2007], that the Gardner equation (1) with negative cubic nonlinearity has a family of classic solitary wave solutions with only positive polarity,and with limiting amplitude equal to 1. Therefore evolution of impulses (2) of negative polarity (whose amplitudes a were varied from 0.1 to 3, and widths at the level of a/2 were equal to triple width of solitons with the same amplitude for a 1) was going on a universal scenario with the generation of nonlinear Airy wave. For the Gardner equation (1) with the positive cubic nonlinearity coefficient there exist two one-parametric families of solitons (family with positive polarity, and family with negative polarity bounded below by the amplitude of 2) and two-parametric family of breathers (oscillatory wave packets). In this case varying amplitude and width of bell-shaped initial impulse leads to plenty of different evolutionary scenarios with the generation of solitary waves, breathers, solibores and nonlinear Airy wave in their various combinations. Statistical analysis of the wave field in time shows almost permanent substantial exceedance of the level of the significant wave height in some position in spatial coordinate. Evolution of Fourier spectrum of the wave field is also analyzed, and its behavior after a long time of initial wave evolution demonstrates the power asymptotic for small wave numbers and exponential asymptotic for large wave numbers. The presented results of research are obtained with the support of the grant of the President of the Russian Federation for state support of the young Russian scientists - Candidates of Sciences (MK-5208.2016.5) and Russian Foundation for Basic Research grant 16-05-00049. References: Grimshaw R., Pelinovsky D., Pelinovsky E and Slunyaev A. Generation of large-amplitude solitons in the extended Korteweg-de Vries equation // Chaos, 2002. - V.12. - No 4. - 1070-1076. Grimshaw, R., Slunyaev, A., and Pelinovsky, E. Generation of solitons and breathers in the extended Korteweg-de Vries equation with positive cubic nonlinearity //Chaos, 2010. - vol. 20.-013102. Kurkina O.E., Kurkin A.A., Soomere T., Pelinovsky E.N., Rouvinskaya E.A. Higher-order (2+4) Korteweg-de Vries - like equation for interfacial waves in a symmetric three-layer fluid // Physics of Fluids, 2011. - Volume 23. - Issue 11. - p.116602--1--13. Kurkina O., Rouvinskaya E., Talipova T., Kurkin A., Pelinovsky E. Nonlinear disintegration of sine wave in the framework of the Gardner equation // Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, 2015. - doi:10.1016/j.physd.2015.12.007. Pelinovsky E., Polukhina O., Slunyaev A., Talipova T. Internal solitary waves // Chapter 4 in the book ``Solitary Waves in Fluids''. WIT Press. Southampton, Boston. 2007. P. 85 - 110. Rouvinskaya E., Kurkina O., Kurkin A. Dynamics of nonlinear internal gravity waves in layered fluids // NNSTU n.a. R.E. Alekseev Press - Nizhny Novgorod, 2014 - 160 p. [In Russian] Trillo S., Klein M., Clauss G., Onorato M. Observation of dispersive shock waves developing from initial depressions in shallow water // Physica D, 2016. - http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.physd.2016.01.007.

  7. Undular bore theory for the Gardner equation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kamchatnov, A. M.; Kuo, Y.-H.; Lin, T.-C.; Horng, T.-L.; Gou, S.-C.; Clift, R.; El, G. A.; Grimshaw, R. H. J.

    2012-09-01

    We develop modulation theory for undular bores (dispersive shock waves) in the framework of the Gardner, or extended Korteweg-de Vries (KdV), equation, which is a generic mathematical model for weakly nonlinear and weakly dispersive wave propagation, when effects of higher order nonlinearity become important. Using a reduced version of the finite-gap integration method we derive the Gardner-Whitham modulation system in a Riemann invariant form and show that it can be mapped onto the well-known modulation system for the Korteweg-de Vries equation. The transformation between the two counterpart modulation systems is, however, not invertible. As a result, the study of the resolution of an initial discontinuity for the Gardner equation reveals a rich phenomenology of solutions which, along with the KdV-type simple undular bores, include nonlinear trigonometric bores, solibores, rarefaction waves, and composite solutions representing various combinations of the above structures. We construct full parametric maps of such solutions for both signs of the cubic nonlinear term in the Gardner equation. Our classification is supported by numerical simulations.

  8. Muscular Dystrophy

    MedlinePlus

    ... Gardner-Medwin D. Variability in clinical, genetic and protein abnormalities in manifesting carriers of Duchenne and Becker muscular dystrophy . Neuromuscul. Disord. Jan 1993;3(1):57-64. 3. Bushby KM, Appleton R, Anderson ...

  9. DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Bovier, A.; Klein, A.

    We show that the formal perturbation expansion of the invariant measure for the Anderson model in one dimension has singularities at all energies E/sub 0/ = 2 cos ..pi..(p/q); we derive a modified expansion near these energies that we show to have finite coefficients to all orders. Moreover, we show that the first q - 3 of them coincide with those of the naive expansion, while there is an anomaly in the (q - 2)th term. This also gives a weak disorder expansion for the Liapunov exponent and for the density of states. This generalizes previous results of Kappus andmore » Wegner and of Derrida and Gardner.« less

  10. Trailblazer 1B Flight Preparations

    NASA Image and Video Library

    1959-06-04

    L59-3896 Engineers W. N. Gardner and C.A. Brown, Jr., check operations as Trailblazer 1b is readied for Flight, June 4, 1959. Photograph published in A New Dimension Wallops Island Flight Test Range: The First Fifteen Years by Joseph Shortal. A NASA publication, page 675. D58-3001 Model. Engineers W. N. Gardner and C.A. Brown

  11. Kinematic parameters of second-mode internal waves in the South China Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kurkina, Oxana; Talipova, Tatiana; Kurkin, Andrey; Naumov, Alexander; Rybin, Artem

    2017-04-01

    Kinematic parameters of second-mode internal waves (in the framework of weakly nonlinear model of the Gardner equation) are calculated for the region of the South China Sea on a base of GDEM climatology. The prognostic parameters of the model include phase speed of long linear waves, coefficients of dispersion, quadratic and cubic nonlinearity, location (in vertical) of minimum, zero and maximum of the second vertical baroclinic mode and the ratio of its maximal and minimal values. All the parameters are presented in the form of geographical maps for winter (January) and summer (July) seasons. Frequence (in the sense of occurrence) histograms and scatter plots with depth are also given for all the parameters. Special attention is paid to the conditions of normalizing for internal waves of the second mode, as it possesses two extremes. Here some freedom exists, but for correct further modeling of internal waves within the Gardner model one has to fix and keep the same normalization (at maximum or at minimum) for whole a basin. Constructed arrays of prognostic parameters of second-mode internal waves are necessary for the estimations of shape and width (at fixed amplitude) of internal solitary and breather-like waves, limiting amplitudes of internal solitary waves of different families, for assessment of near-bed and near-surface flows induced by such waves, and for evaluation of transport distance for dissolved and suspended matter. The presented results of research are obtained with the support of the Russian Foundation for Basic Research grant 16-05-00049.

  12. Useful Brazilian plants listed in the manuscripts and publications of the Scottish medic and naturalist George Gardner (1812-1849).

    PubMed

    Fagg, Christopher W; Lughadha, Eimear Nic; Milliken, William; Nicholas Hind, D J; Brandão, Maria G L

    2015-02-23

    Information regarding the beneficial use of native Brazilian plants was compiled by a number of European naturalists in the 19th century. The Scottish surgeon botanist George Gardner (1812-1849) was one such naturalist; however, the useful plants recorded in his manuscripts have not yet been studied in depth. To present data recorded by Gardner in his manuscript Catalogue of Brazilian Plants regarding the use of native plants by Brazilian people and evaluate the extent to which they have been explored. Data on useful plants were obtained from Gardner׳s manuscript Catalogue of Brazilian Plants deposited in the Archives of the Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, UK. The identification of each plant was determined and/or updated by consulting the preserved botanical collections of Gardner deposited in the Herbarium of the Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew (hereafter K), and expert determinations in other herbaria where duplicates are held. Correlated pharmacological studies for each plant were obtained from the PubMed database. Information recorded in Gardner׳s diary and previously published elsewhere complemented these data. A total of 63 useful plants was recorded from the Catalogue and a further 30 from Gardner׳s book Travels in the Interior of Brazil (Gardner, 1846). Of the recorded names in the Catalogue, 46 (73%) could be identified to species by consulting specimens collected by Gardner and held at Kew. Thirty-six different traditional uses were registered for the identified plants, the most common being as febrifuges, to treat venereal complaints and as purgatives. Fewer than 50% of these species have been the focus of published pharmacological studies, yet for those which have been thus investigated, the efficacies reported by Gardner were confirmed. The data recorded by Gardner represent a rich, relatively unexplored source of information regarding the traditional uses of Brazilian plants which merits further investigation. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. The Effect of the Accountability Variables of Responsibility, Openness, and Answerability on Authentic Leadership

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Frederick, Heidi R.; Wood, James A.; West, George R.; Winston, Bruce E.

    2016-01-01

    One salient aspect of authentic leadership is the possibility that it can be developed (Walumbwa, Avolio, Gardner, Wernsing, & Peterson, 2008). However, the relative paucity of research on authentic leadership as a dependent variable needs to be addressed. The purpose of this cross-sectional quantitative study is to examine the three factors…

  14. Montessori and Gardner's Theory of Multiple Intelligences.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vardin, Patricia A.

    2003-01-01

    Reviews Gardner's theory of multiple intelligences. Shows how Maria Montessori and Howard Gardner drew similar conclusions regarding human capacity and potential. Examines how Gardner's eight intelligences and underlying core operations lie at the heart of the Montessori exercises and activities. (KB)

  15. Simplification of the Gardner model: effects on maximum upward flux in the presence of a shallow water table

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xing, Xuguang; Ma, Xiaoyi

    2018-06-01

    The maximum upward flux ( E max) is a control condition for the development of groundwater evaporation models, which can be predicted through the Gardner model. A high-precision E max prediction helps to improve irrigation practice. When using the Gardner model, it has widely been accepted to ignore parameter b (a soil-water constant) for model simplification. However, this may affect the prediction accuracy; therefore, how parameter b affects E max requires detailed investigation. An indoor one-dimensional soil-column evaporation experiment was conducted to observe E max in the presence of a water table of depth 50 cm. The study consisted of 13 treatments based on four solutes and three concentrations in groundwater: KCl, NaCl, CaCl2, and MgCl2, with concentrations of 5, 30, and 100 g/L (salty groundwater); distilled water was used as a control treatment. Results indicated that for the experimental homogeneous loam, the average E max for the treatments supplied by salty groundwater was larger than that supplied by distilled water. Furthermore, during the prediction of the Gardner-model-based E max, ignoring b and including b always led to an overestimate and underestimate, respectively, compared to the observed E max. However, the maximum upward flux calculated including b (i.e. E bmax) had higher accuracy than that ignoring b for E max prediction. Moreover, the impact of ignoring b on E max gradually weakened with increasing b value. This research helps to reveal the groundwater evaporation mechanism.

  16. Numerical detection of the Gardner transition in a mean-field glass former.

    PubMed

    Charbonneau, Patrick; Jin, Yuliang; Parisi, Giorgio; Rainone, Corrado; Seoane, Beatriz; Zamponi, Francesco

    2015-07-01

    Recent theoretical advances predict the existence, deep into the glass phase, of a novel phase transition, the so-called Gardner transition. This transition is associated with the emergence of a complex free energy landscape composed of many marginally stable sub-basins within a glass metabasin. In this study, we explore several methods to detect numerically the Gardner transition in a simple structural glass former, the infinite-range Mari-Kurchan model. The transition point is robustly located from three independent approaches: (i) the divergence of the characteristic relaxation time, (ii) the divergence of the caging susceptibility, and (iii) the abnormal tail in the probability distribution function of cage order parameters. We show that the numerical results are fully consistent with the theoretical expectation. The methods we propose may also be generalized to more realistic numerical models as well as to experimental systems.

  17. Transcritical flow of a stratified fluid over topography: analysis of the forced Gardner equation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kamchatnov, A. M.; Kuo, Y.-H.; Lin, T.-C.; Horng, T.-L.; Gou, S.-C.; Clift, R.; El, G. A.; Grimshaw, R. H. J.

    2013-12-01

    Transcritical flow of a stratified fluid past a broad localised topographic obstacle is studied analytically in the framework of the forced extended Korteweg--de Vries (eKdV), or Gardner, equation. We consider both possible signs for the cubic nonlinear term in the Gardner equation corresponding to different fluid density stratification profiles. We identify the range of the input parameters: the oncoming flow speed (the Froude number) and the topographic amplitude, for which the obstacle supports a stationary localised hydraulic transition from the subcritical flow upstream to the supercritical flow downstream. Such a localised transcritical flow is resolved back into the equilibrium flow state away from the obstacle with the aid of unsteady coherent nonlinear wave structures propagating upstream and downstream. Along with the regular, cnoidal undular bores occurring in the analogous problem for the single-layer flow modeled by the forced KdV equation, the transcritical internal wave flows support a diverse family of upstream and downstream wave structures, including solibores, rarefaction waves, reversed and trigonometric undular bores, which we describe using the recent development of the nonlinear modulation theory for the (unforced) Gardner equation. The predictions of the developed analytic construction are confirmed by direct numerical simulations of the forced Gardner equation for a broad range of input parameters.

  18. Thermodynamical Limit for Correlated Gaussian Random Energy Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Contucci, P.; Esposti, M. Degli; Giardinà, C.; Graffi, S.

    Let {EΣ(N)}ΣΣN be a family of |ΣN|=2N centered unit Gaussian random variables defined by the covariance matrix CN of elements cN(Σ,τ):=Av(EΣ(N)Eτ(N)) and the corresponding random Hamiltonian. Then the quenched thermodynamical limit exists if, for every decomposition N=N1+N2, and all pairs (Σ,τ)ΣN×ΣN: where πk(Σ),k=1,2 are the projections of ΣΣN into ΣNk. The condition is explicitly verified for the Sherrington-Kirkpatrick, the even p-spin, the Derrida REM and the Derrida-Gardner GREM models.

  19. Astronaut Dale Gardner rehearses during EVA practice

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1984-01-01

    Astronaut Dale A. Gardner, 51-A mission specialist, rehearses control of manned maneuvering unit (MMU) during a practice for an extravehicular activity (EVA). Gardner is in the Shuttle mockup and integration laboratory at JSC. Gardner handles a stinger device to make initial contact with one of the two satellites they will be working with.

  20. Astronaut Dale Gardner rehearses during EVA practice

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1984-01-01

    Astronaut Dale A. Gardner, 51-A mission specialist, rehearses control of manned maneuvering unit (MMU) during a practice for an extravehicular activity (EVA). Gardner is in the Shuttle mockup and integration laboratory at JSC. Gardner works to deploy a large stinger device designed for locking onto the orbiting satellites via entering a spent engine's nozzle.

  1. Features of the Paired Soliton Interactions Within the Framework of the Gardner Equation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shurgalina, E. G.

    2018-02-01

    We study the dynamics of the two-soliton interaction within the framework of a completely integrable model, namely, the Gardner equation with negative cubic nonlinearity, which admits the existence of a limiting soliton. The features of the soliton interaction with participation of a thick soliton are demonstrated. Special attention is paid to the nonlinear-interaction influence on the wave-field moments, which determine the skewness and the kurtosis in the theory of turbulence.

  2. Adiabatic decay of internal solitons due to Earth's rotation within the framework of the Gardner-Ostrovsky equation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Obregon, Maria; Raj, Nawin; Stepanyants, Yury

    2018-03-01

    The adiabatic decay of different types of internal wave solitons caused by the Earth's rotation is studied within the framework of the Gardner-Ostrovsky equation. The governing equation describing such processes includes quadratic and cubic nonlinear terms, as well as the Boussinesq and Coriolis dispersions: (ut + c ux + α u ux + α1 u2 ux + β uxxx)x = γ u. It is shown that at the early stage of evolution solitons gradually decay under the influence of weak Earth's rotation described by the parameter γ. The characteristic decay time is derived for different types of solitons for positive and negative coefficients of cubic nonlinearity α1 (both signs of that parameter may occur in the oceans). The coefficient of quadratic nonlinearity α determines only a polarity of solitary wave when α1 < 0 or the asymmetry of solitary waves of opposite polarity when α1 > 0. It is found that the adiabatic theory describes well the decay of solitons having bell-shaped profiles. In contrast to that, large amplitude table-top solitons, which can exist when α1 is negative, are structurally unstable. Under the influence of Earth's rotation, they transfer first to the bell-shaped solitons, which decay then adiabatically. Estimates of the characteristic decay time of internal solitons are presented for the real oceanographic conditions.

  3. Modified Regression Correlation Coefficient for Poisson Regression Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kaengthong, Nattacha; Domthong, Uthumporn

    2017-09-01

    This study gives attention to indicators in predictive power of the Generalized Linear Model (GLM) which are widely used; however, often having some restrictions. We are interested in regression correlation coefficient for a Poisson regression model. This is a measure of predictive power, and defined by the relationship between the dependent variable (Y) and the expected value of the dependent variable given the independent variables [E(Y|X)] for the Poisson regression model. The dependent variable is distributed as Poisson. The purpose of this research was modifying regression correlation coefficient for Poisson regression model. We also compare the proposed modified regression correlation coefficient with the traditional regression correlation coefficient in the case of two or more independent variables, and having multicollinearity in independent variables. The result shows that the proposed regression correlation coefficient is better than the traditional regression correlation coefficient based on Bias and the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE).

  4. 12. August, 1970 DETAIL FRONT PORCH OF GEORGE B. GARDNER ...

    Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

    12. August, 1970 DETAIL FRONT PORCH OF GEORGE B. GARDNER HOUSE, 23 ORANGE STREET - Pierce, Easton, Russell, Bunker, & Gardner Houses, 15, 17, 19, 21 & 23 Orange Street, Nantucket, Nantucket County, MA

  5. Infinitely many symmetries and conservation laws for quad-graph equations via the Gardner method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rasin, Alexander G.

    2010-06-01

    The application of the Gardner method for the generation of conservation laws to all the ABS equations is considered. It is shown that all the necessary information for the application of the Gardner method, namely Bäcklund transformations and initial conservation laws, follows from the multidimensional consistency of ABS equations. We also apply the Gardner method to an asymmetric equation which is not included in the ABS classification. An analog of the Gardner method for the generation of symmetries is developed and applied to the discrete Korteweg-de Vries equation. It can also be applied to all the other ABS equations.

  6. Current Approaches to Assessment in Self-Access Language Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Reinders, Hayo; Lázaro, Noemí

    2007-01-01

    Assessment is generally seen as one of the key challenges in the field of self-access learning (Gardner & Miller, 1999; Champagne et al., 2001; Lai, 2001; Kinoshita Thomson, 1996). Many researchers and practitioners point to difficulties with assessing language gains in an environment in which variables cannot comprehensively be controlled…

  7. Structural invariance of multiple intelligences, based on the level of execution.

    PubMed

    Almeida, Leandro S; Prieto, María Dolores; Ferreira, Arístides; Ferrando, Mercedes; Ferrandiz, Carmen; Bermejo, Rosario; Hernández, Daniel

    2011-11-01

    The independence of multiple intelligences (MI) of Gardner's theory has been debated since its conception. This article examines whether the one- factor structure of the MI theory tested in previous studies is invariant for low and high ability students. Two hundred ninety-four children (aged 5 to 7) participated in this study. A set of Gardner's Multiple Intelligence assessment tasks based on the Spectrum Project was used. To analyze the invariance of a general dimension of intelligence, the different models of behaviours were studied in samples of participants with different performance on the Spectrum Project tasks with Multi-Group Confirmatory Factor Analysis (MGCFA). Results suggest an absence of structural invariance in Gardner's tasks. Exploratory analyses suggest a three-factor structure for individuals with higher performance levels and a two-factor structure for individuals with lower performance levels.

  8. Astronaut Dale Gardner rehearses control of MMU during EVA practice

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1984-01-01

    Astronaut Dale A. Gardner, 51-A mission specialist, rehearses control of manned maneuvering unit (MMU) during a practice for an extravehicular activity (EVA). Gardner is in the Shuttle mockup and integration laboratory at JSC.

  9. Transfer and Generalizability of Foreign Language Learning

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2009-02-01

    Gardner, 2003), particularly for language students at lower levels of proficiency (Lambert, Gardner, Barik , & Tunstall, 1963). Intrinsic motivation...and bilingual education (pp. 116-131). Washington, DC: Georgetown University Press. Lambert, W. E., Gardner, R. C., Barik , H. C., & Tunstall, K

  10. A Cross-Cultural Study of the Motivation of Students Learning a Second Language.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Benjamin, Jane; Chen, Yih-Lan E.

    This study examined the underlying factor structure of the Motivation Orientation Scale (MOS), determining its degree of consistency across two distinct cultures and identifying variables affecting students' motivation in learning a second language. The study investigated how intention theory with its three motivation orientations, and Gardner's…

  11. A Comparative Analysis of Multiple Intelligence Theory with Relationship to Gender and Grade Level in Selected Schools in Ghana

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Oteng, Ellen N.

    2012-01-01

    This dissertation examined the relationships between Howard Gardner's Multiple Intelligence Theory and students' gender, age, grade level, and enrollment into a public or private school. The research determined students' dominant intelligences and investigated whether students' intelligences may be influenced by demographic variables such as…

  12. Evaluating Secondary School Students' Levels of Five Mind Areas in Terms of Variables

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gelen, Ismail

    2015-01-01

    Gardner's "Five Minds for the Future" approach is focused on disciplined, synthesizing, creative, respectful, and ethical minds. Based on this approach, the purpose of this research is to determine senior secondary school students' levels of five mind areas, and investigate the relationship between these mind areas and the students'…

  13. [Gardner syndrome--parent alienation syndrome (PAS). Diagnosis or family reality?].

    PubMed

    Namysłowska, Irena; Heitzman, Janusz; Siewierska, Anna

    2009-01-01

    The authors present characteristics of Parental Alienation Syndrome (PAS) proposed by Gardner as well as data, which may help to differentiate that syndrome with real psychological, physical and sexual abuse. The consequences of Gardner Syndrome for legal decisions in the court cases of child custody and the critique of this syndrome in forensic and psychiatric literature are also discussed, and several questions posed. Authors propose to treat Gardner Syndrome not as as a child disorder but as a specific, dynamic family situation, which occurs sometimes, during divorce and fight about child custody.

  14. Dormancy, germination, emergence and ecology of Gardner saltbush (Atriplex gardneri (Moq. ) D. Dietr. ) seeds

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Ansley, R.J. Jr.

    1983-01-01

    Gardner saltbush (Atriplex gardneri (Moq.) D. Dietr.) provides valuable winter browse and is an important soil stabilizer in arid, alkaline, and saline areas of the intermountain region. However, seed dormancy and poor seedling vigor inhibit its potential for revegetation by direct seeding on disturbed lands. The objectives of this study were to 1) develop seed treatments which would overcome dormancy in Gardner saltbush seeds, 2) evaluate field establishment by direct seeding of Gardner saltbush, and 3) characterize seed dormancy, seedling vigor and some aspects of the ecology of germination in Gardner saltbush. In the laboratory, single and combined pretreatments removedmore » dormancy to varying degrees. Dormancy was completely alleviated with 15 months dry after-ripening + scarification + 24 hours washing + 4 weeks stratification. Dry after-ripening and scarification appeared to facilitate effects of washing and stratification. Physiologically, indirect evidence was obtained suggesting both embryo and seedcoat mediated dormancy occur in Gardner saltbush. Ecologically, the various levels of germination response to simulated environmental pretreatments appeared to be an adaptation of Gardner saltbush seeds to ensure a temporal dispersal of release from dormancy. This increases the probability that under natural conditions some seedlings will emerge during times when the environment is amenable to seedling survival.« less

  15. An instrumental variable random-coefficients model for binary outcomes

    PubMed Central

    Chesher, Andrew; Rosen, Adam M

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, we study a random-coefficients model for a binary outcome. We allow for the possibility that some or even all of the explanatory variables are arbitrarily correlated with the random coefficients, thus permitting endogeneity. We assume the existence of observed instrumental variables Z that are jointly independent with the random coefficients, although we place no structure on the joint determination of the endogenous variable X and instruments Z, as would be required for a control function approach. The model fits within the spectrum of generalized instrumental variable models, and we thus apply identification results from our previous studies of such models to the present context, demonstrating their use. Specifically, we characterize the identified set for the distribution of random coefficients in the binary response model with endogeneity via a collection of conditional moment inequalities, and we investigate the structure of these sets by way of numerical illustration. PMID:25798048

  16. Revisiting Vygotsky and Gardner: Realizing Human Potential

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Beliavsky, Ninah

    2006-01-01

    In this article, the author discusses her views on philosophies and theories by Lev Semenovich Vygotsky and Howard Gardner. Here, she argues that Vygotsky's ideas should be viewed through the prism of Gardner's theory of Multiple Intelligences, and that the combination of these concepts can shed new light on education--on teaching and learning.…

  17. Simplifying Gardner's Labyrinth: The Role of Interpersonal Relationships in Pablo Picasso's Artistic Development

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gupta, Anoop

    2012-01-01

    An attempt is made to demonstrate if not the dispensability of Gardner's (1983) theory of multiple intelligences, at least that it is not foundational, to understanding what motivated Picasso's creative development. Gardner used the theory of multiple intelligences to account for the extraordinariness of various figures, including Picasso, who is…

  18. Astronaut Dale Gardner using MMU to travel to Westar VI satellite

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1984-01-01

    Astronaut Dale A. Gardner, wearing the manned maneuvering unit (MMU) approaching the spinng Westar VI satellite over Bahama Banks. Gardner uses a large tool called the apogee kick motor capture device (ACD) to enter the nozzle of the spent Westar engine and stabilize the satellite to capture it for return to Earth.

  19. 33 CFR 334.1215 - Port Gardner, Everett Naval Base, naval restricted area, Everett, Washington.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 3 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Port Gardner, Everett Naval Base, naval restricted area, Everett, Washington. 334.1215 Section 334.1215 Navigation and Navigable Waters... REGULATIONS § 334.1215 Port Gardner, Everett Naval Base, naval restricted area, Everett, Washington. (a) The...

  20. The Effects of Social and Experiential Factors on the Interactions between the Phonetic Systems of Diglossic Bilinguals

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Law, Wai Ling

    2017-01-01

    In diglossic contexts, when speakers typically use two different languages on a regular basis, bilingual speakers display a wide array of attitudes towards each of their languages and associated cultures (Galindo, 1995) and such variability in attitudes can affect their linguistic behaviors (Lambert, Hodgson, Gardner & Fillenbaum, 1960).…

  1. Foundations of educational psychology: Howard Gardner's neoclassical psyche.

    PubMed

    Diessner, R

    2001-12-01

    This article is a theoretical examination of the implications of Howard Gardner's work in developmental and educational psychology (1983, 1993, 1999a, 1999b) for the structure of the psyche. The author accepts as axiomatic, in the context of this article, Gardner's educational manifesto (1999a) that all students should be taught disciplinary understandings of truth, beauty, and goodness. Rational inferences are then made indicating that the psyche that Gardner intends to educate and help develop is in the form of a neoclassical psyche and that it is structured by the capacities to know truth, to love beauty, and to will goodness.

  2. Bodily-Kinesthetic Intelligence and Dance Education: Critique, Revision, and Potentials for the Democratic Ideal

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Blumenfeld-Jones, Donald

    2009-01-01

    This paper offers a way of rethinking Howard Gardner's theory of Multiple Intelligences. The bodily-kinesthetic intelligence is used as the point of critique. The author provides a detailed discussion of the act of dancing as counterpoint to Gardner's understanding of the intelligence. The author critiques Gardner's exemplar and evolutionary…

  3. "g" and the Measurement of Multiple Intelligences: A Response to Gardner

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Visser, Beth A.; Ashton, Michael C.; Vernon, Philip A.

    2006-01-01

    Gardner [Gardner, H. (2006-this issue). On failing to grasp the core of MI theory: A response to Visser et al. "Intelligence"] criticized some aspects of our empirical examination [Visser, B. A., Ashton, M. C., & Vernon, P. A. (2006-this issue). Beyond "g": Putting multiple intelligences theory to the test. "Intelligence"] of his "Theory of…

  4. Howard Gardner: Knowledge, Learning and Development in Drama and Arts Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Roper, Bill; Davis, David

    2000-01-01

    Notes that Howard Gardner's theory of Multiple Intelligences (MI) has afforded support to educators and parents who want to see their children as equals no matter in what area of ability they develop competence. Explains the usefulness of Gardner's approach, based on Kantian notions of the power of mind to give order to the world. Discusses the…

  5. Martin Gardner: 100 Years of the Magic of Physics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gillaspy, John D.

    2014-01-01

    2014 marks the 100th anniversary of the birth of Martin Gardner, a man whose writings helped inspire generations of young students to pursue a career in physics and mathematics. From his first to his last, and many in between, Gardner's publications often combined magic and science. A recurring theme was the clever use of physical principles…

  6. Gardner Transition in Physical Dimensions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hicks, C. L.; Wheatley, M. J.; Godfrey, M. J.; Moore, M. A.

    2018-06-01

    The Gardner transition is the transition that at mean-field level separates a stable glass phase from a marginally stable phase. This transition has similarities with the de Almeida-Thouless transition of spin glasses. We have studied a well-understood problem, that of disks moving in a narrow channel, which shows many features usually associated with the Gardner transition. We show that some of these features are artifacts that arise when a disk escapes its local cage during the quench to higher densities. There is evidence that the Gardner transition becomes an avoided transition, in that the correlation length becomes quite large, of order 15 particle diameters, even in our quasi-one-dimensional system.

  7. [Correlation coefficient-based classification method of hydrological dependence variability: With auto-regression model as example].

    PubMed

    Zhao, Yu Xi; Xie, Ping; Sang, Yan Fang; Wu, Zi Yi

    2018-04-01

    Hydrological process evaluation is temporal dependent. Hydrological time series including dependence components do not meet the data consistency assumption for hydrological computation. Both of those factors cause great difficulty for water researches. Given the existence of hydrological dependence variability, we proposed a correlationcoefficient-based method for significance evaluation of hydrological dependence based on auto-regression model. By calculating the correlation coefficient between the original series and its dependence component and selecting reasonable thresholds of correlation coefficient, this method divided significance degree of dependence into no variability, weak variability, mid variability, strong variability, and drastic variability. By deducing the relationship between correlation coefficient and auto-correlation coefficient in each order of series, we found that the correlation coefficient was mainly determined by the magnitude of auto-correlation coefficient from the 1 order to p order, which clarified the theoretical basis of this method. With the first-order and second-order auto-regression models as examples, the reasonability of the deduced formula was verified through Monte-Carlo experiments to classify the relationship between correlation coefficient and auto-correlation coefficient. This method was used to analyze three observed hydrological time series. The results indicated the coexistence of stochastic and dependence characteristics in hydrological process.

  8. Theories of Learning: Teaching for Understanding and Creativity. Selected Papers from the Annual Conference of the Institute for the Study of Postsecondary Pedagogy (4th).

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kelder, Richard, Ed.

    This book presents 24 papers dealing with learning theory and its application at the postsecondary level, many stemming from the ideas of Robert Sternberg and Howard Gardner. Articles include: (1) "Introduction" (Richard Kelder); (2) "Teaching Variability in Problem Solving" (Patricia D. Stokes); (3) "Cognitive Theory and…

  9. Astronaut Dale Gardner holds up for sale sign after EVA

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1984-01-01

    Astronaut Dale A. Gardner, having just completed the major portion of his second extravehicular activity (EVA) period in three days, holds up a 'for sale' sign. Astronaut Joseph P. ALlen IV, who also participated in the two EVA's, is reflected in Gardner's helmet visor. A portion of each of two recovered satellites is in the lower right corner, with Westar nearer Discovery's aft.

  10. Wave-packet formation at the zero-dispersion point in the Gardner-Ostrovsky equation.

    PubMed

    Whitfield, A J; Johnson, E R

    2015-05-01

    The long-time effect of weak rotation on an internal solitary wave is the decay into inertia-gravity waves and the eventual emergence of a coherent, steadily propagating, nonlinear wave packet. There is currently no entirely satisfactory explanation as to why these wave packets form. Here the initial value problem is considered within the context of the Gardner-Ostrovsky, or rotation-modified extended Korteweg-de Vries, equation. The linear Gardner-Ostrovsky equation has maximum group velocity at a critical wave number, often called the zero-dispersion point. It is found here that a nonlinear splitting of the wave-number spectrum at the zero-dispersion point, where energy is shifted into the modulationally unstable regime of the Gardner-Ostrovsky equation, is responsible for the wave-packet formation. Numerical comparisons of the decay of a solitary wave in the Gardner-Ostrovsky equation and a derived nonlinear Schrödinger equation at the zero-dispersion point are used to confirm the spectral splitting.

  11. N=2 supersymmetric a=4-Korteweg-de Vries hierarchy derived via Gardner's deformation of Kaup-Boussinesq equation

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Hussin, V.; Kiselev, A. V.; Krutov, A. O.

    2010-08-15

    We consider the problem of constructing Gardner's deformations for the N=2 supersymmetric a=4-Korteweg-de Vries (SKdV) equation; such deformations yield recurrence relations between the super-Hamiltonians of the hierarchy. We prove the nonexistence of supersymmetry-invariant deformations that retract to Gardner's formulas for the Korteweg-de Vries (KdV) with equation under the component reduction. At the same time, we propose a two-step scheme for the recursive production of the integrals of motion for the N=2, a=4-SKdV. First, we find a new Gardner's deformation of the Kaup-Boussinesq equation, which is contained in the bosonic limit of the superhierarchy. This yields the recurrence relation between themore » Hamiltonians of the limit, whence we determine the bosonic super-Hamiltonians of the full N=2, a=4-SKdV hierarchy. Our method is applicable toward the solution of Gardner's deformation problems for other supersymmetric KdV-type systems.« less

  12. Nonlinear stability of Gardner breathers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alejo, Miguel A.

    2018-01-01

    We show that breather solutions of the Gardner equation, a natural generalization of the KdV and mKdV equations, are H2 (R) stable. Through a variational approach, we characterize Gardner breathers as minimizers of a new Lyapunov functional and we study the associated spectral problem, through (i) the analysis of the spectrum of explicit linear systems (spectral stability), and (ii) controlling degenerated directions by using low regularity conservation laws.

  13. Collision properties of overtaking supersolitons with small amplitudes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Olivier, C. P.; Verheest, F.; Hereman, W. A.

    2018-03-01

    The collision properties of overtaking small-amplitude supersolitons are investigated for the fluid model of a plasma consisting of cold ions and two-temperature Boltzmann electrons. A reductive perturbation analysis is performed for compositional parameters near the supercritical composition. A generalized Korteweg-de Vries equation with a quartic nonlinearity is derived, referred to as the modified Gardner equation. Criteria for the existence of small-amplitude supersolitons are derived. The modified Gardner equation is shown to be not completely integrable, implying that supersoliton collisions are inelastic, as confirmed by numerical simulations. These simulations also show that supersolitons may reduce to regular solitons as a result of overtaking collisions.

  14. A Study of the Relationship between Iranian EFL Learners' Level of Spatial Intelligence and Their Performance on Analytical and Perceptual Cloze Tests

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ahmadian, Moussa; Jalilian, Vahid

    2012-01-01

    During the last two decades, Gardner's theory of multiple intelligences with its emphasis on learner variables has been appreciated in language learning. Spatial intelligence, as one domain of the multiple structures of intelligence, which is thought to play a great role in reading, writing, and literacy, particularly in L2 learning, has not…

  15. Ectopic craniopharyngioma of the fourth ventricle in a patient with Gardner syndrome.

    PubMed

    Pena, Andres H; Chaudhry, Ammar; Seidman, Roberta J; Peyster, Robert; Bangiyev, Lev

    2016-01-01

    Ectopic craniopharyngioma is uncommon and a craniopharyngioma confined purely within the fourth ventricle is extremely rare. We report a craniopharyngioma of the fourth ventricle in a 20-year-old man with Gardner syndrome. Imaging characteristics of craniopharyngiomas and fourth ventricle lesions are discussed with a review of the literature regarding the pathogenesis of craniopharyngiomas and the possible association with Gardner syndrome. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. A measurement model of multiple intelligence profiles of management graduates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krishnan, Heamalatha; Awang, Siti Rahmah

    2017-05-01

    In this study, developing a fit measurement model and identifying the best fitting items to represent Howard Gardner's nine intelligences namely, musical intelligence, bodily-kinaesthetic intelligence, mathematical/logical intelligence, visual/spatial intelligence, verbal/linguistic intelligence, interpersonal intelligence, intrapersonal intelligence, naturalist intelligence and spiritual intelligence are the main interest in order to enhance the opportunities of the management graduates for employability. In order to develop a fit measurement model, Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) was applied. A psychometric test which is the Ability Test in Employment (ATIEm) was used as the instrument to measure the existence of nine types of intelligence of 137 University Teknikal Malaysia Melaka (UTeM) management graduates for job placement purposes. The initial measurement model contains nine unobserved variables and each unobserved variable is measured by ten observed variables. Finally, the modified measurement model deemed to improve the Normed chi-square (NC) = 1.331; Incremental Fit Index (IFI) = 0.940 and Root Mean Square of Approximation (RMSEA) = 0.049 was developed. The findings showed that the UTeM management graduates possessed all nine intelligences either high or low. Musical intelligence, mathematical/logical intelligence, naturalist intelligence and spiritual intelligence contributed highest loadings on certain items. However, most of the intelligences such as bodily kinaesthetic intelligence, visual/spatial intelligence, verbal/linguistic intelligence interpersonal intelligence and intrapersonal intelligence possessed by UTeM management graduates are just at the borderline.

  17. Addressing Diverse Learner Preferences and Intelligences with Emerging Technologies: Matching Models to Online Opportunities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zhang, Ke; Bonk, Curtis J.

    2008-01-01

    This paper critically reviews various learning preferences and human intelligence theories and models with a particular focus on the implications for online learning. It highlights a few key models, Gardner's multiple intelligences, Fleming and Mills' VARK model, Honey and Mumford's Learning Styles, and Kolb's Experiential Learning Model, and…

  18. A gathering for Gardner

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Crease, Robert P.

    2008-07-01

    Martin Gardner, who turns 94 this autumn, seems to have pulled off an astounding trick. Every other year hundreds of people gather to honour Gardner, who is the author of over 70 books and wrote the popular "Mathematical Games" column that appeared in Scientific American for a quarter of a century from 1956. What is astonishing is that the people come from a bewildering variety of professions and include jugglers, magicians, artists, puzzle-makers, logicians, computer scientists, pseudoscience debunkers and mathematicians.

  19. Bayesian dynamic modeling of time series of dengue disease case counts.

    PubMed

    Martínez-Bello, Daniel Adyro; López-Quílez, Antonio; Torres-Prieto, Alexander

    2017-07-01

    The aim of this study is to model the association between weekly time series of dengue case counts and meteorological variables, in a high-incidence city of Colombia, applying Bayesian hierarchical dynamic generalized linear models over the period January 2008 to August 2015. Additionally, we evaluate the model's short-term performance for predicting dengue cases. The methodology shows dynamic Poisson log link models including constant or time-varying coefficients for the meteorological variables. Calendar effects were modeled using constant or first- or second-order random walk time-varying coefficients. The meteorological variables were modeled using constant coefficients and first-order random walk time-varying coefficients. We applied Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulations for parameter estimation, and deviance information criterion statistic (DIC) for model selection. We assessed the short-term predictive performance of the selected final model, at several time points within the study period using the mean absolute percentage error. The results showed the best model including first-order random walk time-varying coefficients for calendar trend and first-order random walk time-varying coefficients for the meteorological variables. Besides the computational challenges, interpreting the results implies a complete analysis of the time series of dengue with respect to the parameter estimates of the meteorological effects. We found small values of the mean absolute percentage errors at one or two weeks out-of-sample predictions for most prediction points, associated with low volatility periods in the dengue counts. We discuss the advantages and limitations of the dynamic Poisson models for studying the association between time series of dengue disease and meteorological variables. The key conclusion of the study is that dynamic Poisson models account for the dynamic nature of the variables involved in the modeling of time series of dengue disease, producing useful models for decision-making in public health.

  20. Hereditary familial polyposis and Gardner's syndrome: contribution of the odonto-stomatology examination in its diagnosis and a case description.

    PubMed

    Chimenos-Küstner, Eduardo; Pascual, Montserrat; Blanco, Ignacio; Finestres, Fernando

    2005-01-01

    Familial Adenomatous Polyposis (FAP) and its phenotype variant, Gardner's syndrome, constitute a rare autosomal dominant inherited disorder. They are characterised by the development, generally during the second and third decades of life, of multiple adenomatous polyps in the colon and rectum. These polyps have a high risk of subsequently becoming malignant, which normally occurs in the third and fourth decades of life. The phenotypical features of FAP can be very variable. As well as colorectal polyps, these individuals can present with extra-colonic symptoms, among which are particularly: gastro-duodenal polyps, dermoid and epidermoid cysts, desmoid tumours, congenital hypertrophy of the retinal pigment epithelium, disorders of the maxillary and skeletal bones and dental anomalies. In this paper the most important aspects of this syndrome are reviewed, showing an example based on a well documented clinical case. The importance of odonto-stomatological examinations should be pointed out, among others, as a means of reaching a presumptive diagnosis, whose confirmation is vital to the patient.

  1. Robust check loss-based variable selection of high-dimensional single-index varying-coefficient model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Song, Yunquan; Lin, Lu; Jian, Ling

    2016-07-01

    Single-index varying-coefficient model is an important mathematical modeling method to model nonlinear phenomena in science and engineering. In this paper, we develop a variable selection method for high-dimensional single-index varying-coefficient models using a shrinkage idea. The proposed procedure can simultaneously select significant nonparametric components and parametric components. Under defined regularity conditions, with appropriate selection of tuning parameters, the consistency of the variable selection procedure and the oracle property of the estimators are established. Moreover, due to the robustness of the check loss function to outliers in the finite samples, our proposed variable selection method is more robust than the ones based on the least squares criterion. Finally, the method is illustrated with numerical simulations.

  2. 77 FR 21896 - Approval and Promulgation of Air Quality Implementation Plans; State of Nevada; Regional Haze...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-04-12

    ... proposed approval, including specific comments on NDEP's modeling and cost analysis of the RGGS BART Determination for NO X . See Modeling for the Reid Gardner Generating Station: Visibility Impacts in Class I... independent modeling analysis to evaluate the incremental visibility improvement attributable to the NO X...

  3. Astronaut Dale Gardner holds up for sale sign after EVA

    NASA Image and Video Library

    1984-11-14

    51A-104-049 (14 Nov. 1984) --- Astronaut Dale A. Gardner, having just completed the major portion of his second extravehicular activity (EVA) period in three days aboard the Earth-orbiting Discovery, holds up a for sale sign. Astronaut Joseph P. Allen IV, who also participated in the two EVA, is reflected in Gardner's helmet visor. A portion of each of two recovered satellites is in lower right corner, with Westar nearer Discovery's aft. Dr. Allen, standing on the mobile foot restraint, connected to the remote manipulator system. Photo credit: NASA

  4. Astronat Dale Gardner using MMU to travel to Westar VI satellite

    NASA Image and Video Library

    1984-11-14

    51A-104-008 (14 Nov 1984) --- Astronaut Dale A. Gardner appears to be under the remote manipulator system (RMS) end effector as he makes a turn in space and prepared to traverse, using the manned maneuvering unit (MMU) backpack, to the nearby Westar VI to "Sting" it with the device he carries. The stringer will enter the communications satellite through the nozzle of the spent motor. Gardner achieved a hard dock at 6:32 A.M. and this picture was photographed about five minutes earlier, on Nov. 14, 1984.

  5. 40 CFR 52.1126 - Control strategy: Sulfur oxides.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... granted by the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Quality Engineering.) Massachusetts Mutual Life... stack). Central Massachusetts APCD Borden, Inc., Chemical Division, Leominster (conditioned upon first... Department of Environmental Quality Engineering.). Gardner State Hospital, Gardner. Grafton State Hospital...

  6. 40 CFR 52.1126 - Control strategy: Sulfur oxides.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... granted by the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Quality Engineering.) Massachusetts Mutual Life... stack). Central Massachusetts APCD Borden, Inc., Chemical Division, Leominster (conditioned upon first... Department of Environmental Quality Engineering.). Gardner State Hospital, Gardner. Grafton State Hospital...

  7. 40 CFR 52.1126 - Control strategy: Sulfur oxides.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... granted by the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Quality Engineering.) Massachusetts Mutual Life... stack). Central Massachusetts APCD Borden, Inc., Chemical Division, Leominster (conditioned upon first... Department of Environmental Quality Engineering.). Gardner State Hospital, Gardner. Grafton State Hospital...

  8. Mission Specialist (MS) Gardner sleeps in middeck sleep restraint

    NASA Image and Video Library

    1983-09-05

    STS008-05-145 (5 Sept 1983) --- On middeck (MDK), Mission Specialist (MS) Gardner sleeps in sleep restraint attached to starboard wall. Open airlock hatch, airlock hatch hinge, and free-floating footwear appear in view.

  9. For the good of a common discipline. 1931.

    PubMed

    Abrams, Sarah E

    2007-01-01

    This historical commentary reprints excerpts from Mary Sewall Gardner's January 1, 1931, editorial in the original Public Health Nursing journal. Gardner (1871-1961) directed the Providence District Nursing Association until her retirement in 1931. She had also served as president of the National Organization for Public Health Nursing. In her editorial, Gardner sought to relieve the sense of hopelessness caused by the deepening Depression and ameliorate the fear that public health nursing advances had been reversed. An introduction to the impact of the Great Depression on working classes and its impact on organizations responsible for visiting nurses provides the background to help evaluate Gardner's intent. Her words find parallels in the inaugural address of Franklin Delano Roosevelt in 1933. This suggests that the pervasive crisis produced a distinctive tone and perspective of interdependence and mutual resolve that leaders used to help their followers through troubling times.

  10. Developing Mindful Learners Model: A 21st Century Ecological Approach.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fluellen, Jerry

    The Developing Mindful Learners Model (DMLM), developed within the framework of Howard Gardner's multiple intelligences theory, connects three factors--content, framework, and world vision--for the purpose of helping underachieving students to become more "mindful": i.e., to become one who welcomes new ideas, considers more than one…

  11. Nurturing the Imagination: Creativity Processes and Innovative Qualitative Research Projects

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mulvihill, Thalia M.; Swaminathan, Raji

    2012-01-01

    This article explores the creativity processes involved in designing and analyzing innovative qualitative research projects and evaluates examples of recent models and typologies that illustrate a variety of ways to approach qualitative inquiry. Using Gardner's Five Minds (2006) typology, Boyer's Model of Scholarship (1997) and Bloom's Taxonomy of…

  12. Motivation and Gender in the Japanese EFL Classroom

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mori, Setsuko; Gobel, Peter

    2006-01-01

    In the field of SLA, there have been various attempts to define second language learning motivation and to discover relationships between motivation and gender. Using two well-known motivational models: Expectancy-value theory, and Gardner's Socio-educational model, the present study sought to (1) first define foreign language learning motivation…

  13. Tests of Hypotheses Arising In the Correlated Random Coefficient Model*

    PubMed Central

    Heckman, James J.; Schmierer, Daniel

    2010-01-01

    This paper examines the correlated random coefficient model. It extends the analysis of Swamy (1971), who pioneered the uncorrelated random coefficient model in economics. We develop the properties of the correlated random coefficient model and derive a new representation of the variance of the instrumental variable estimator for that model. We develop tests of the validity of the correlated random coefficient model against the null hypothesis of the uncorrelated random coefficient model. PMID:21170148

  14. Bayesian dynamic modeling of time series of dengue disease case counts

    PubMed Central

    López-Quílez, Antonio; Torres-Prieto, Alexander

    2017-01-01

    The aim of this study is to model the association between weekly time series of dengue case counts and meteorological variables, in a high-incidence city of Colombia, applying Bayesian hierarchical dynamic generalized linear models over the period January 2008 to August 2015. Additionally, we evaluate the model’s short-term performance for predicting dengue cases. The methodology shows dynamic Poisson log link models including constant or time-varying coefficients for the meteorological variables. Calendar effects were modeled using constant or first- or second-order random walk time-varying coefficients. The meteorological variables were modeled using constant coefficients and first-order random walk time-varying coefficients. We applied Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulations for parameter estimation, and deviance information criterion statistic (DIC) for model selection. We assessed the short-term predictive performance of the selected final model, at several time points within the study period using the mean absolute percentage error. The results showed the best model including first-order random walk time-varying coefficients for calendar trend and first-order random walk time-varying coefficients for the meteorological variables. Besides the computational challenges, interpreting the results implies a complete analysis of the time series of dengue with respect to the parameter estimates of the meteorological effects. We found small values of the mean absolute percentage errors at one or two weeks out-of-sample predictions for most prediction points, associated with low volatility periods in the dengue counts. We discuss the advantages and limitations of the dynamic Poisson models for studying the association between time series of dengue disease and meteorological variables. The key conclusion of the study is that dynamic Poisson models account for the dynamic nature of the variables involved in the modeling of time series of dengue disease, producing useful models for decision-making in public health. PMID:28671941

  15. An Investigation on the Spatial Variability of Manning Roughness Coefficients in Continental-scale River Routing Simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luo, X.; Hong, Y.; Lei, X.; Leung, L. R.; Li, H. Y.; Getirana, A.

    2017-12-01

    As one essential component of the Earth system modeling, the continental-scale river routing computation plays an important role in applications of Earth system models, such as evaluating the impacts of the global change on water resources and flood hazards. The streamflow timing, which depends on the modeled flow velocities, can be an important aspect of the model results. River flow velocities have been estimated by using the Manning's equation where the Manning roughness coefficient is a key and sensitive parameter. In some early continental-scale studies, the Manning coefficient was determined with simplified methods, such as using a constant value for the entire basin. However, large spatial variability is expected in the Manning coefficients for the numerous channels composing the river network in distributed continental-scale hydrologic modeling. In the application of a continental-scale river routing model in the Amazon Basin, we use spatially varying Manning coefficients dependent on channel sizes and attempt to represent the dominant spatial variability of Manning coefficients. Based on the comparisons of simulation results with in situ streamflow records and remotely sensed river stages, we investigate the comparatively optimal Manning coefficients and explicitly demonstrate the advantages of using spatially varying Manning coefficients. The understanding obtained in this study could be helpful in the modeling of surface hydrology at regional to continental scales.

  16. Multiple Intelligences: Its Tensions and Possibilities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Eisner, Elliot W.

    2004-01-01

    This article explores the tensions between Howard Gardner's theory of multiple intelligences and current educational policies emphasizing standardized and predictable outcomes. The article situates Gardner's theory within the historical interests among psychometricians in identifying those core processes that constitute human intelligence.…

  17. 3. Historic American Buildings Survey Philip E. Gardner, Photographer April ...

    Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

    3. Historic American Buildings Survey Philip E. Gardner, Photographer April 1958 FRONT THRESHOLD FROM N. BEFORE OLD BRICK CAPPED BY NEW - Fort Frederica, Captain John Mackay House (Ruins), Lot No. 6, North Ward, Saint Simons Island, Glynn County, GA

  18. Hexaflexagons

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gardner, Martin

    2012-01-01

    This article is a slightly condensed reprint of Martin Gardner's very first "Mathematical Games" column (which appeared December 1956 in "Scientific American"). Here Gardner introduces flexagons (paper polygons folded from straight or crooked strips of paper which have the fascinating property of changing their faces when they are "flexed"),…

  19. Three Billy Goats and Gardner.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Merrefield, Gayle Emery

    1997-01-01

    Describes a Jewish Community Center's efforts to adapt Gardner's multiple-intelligences theory to a preschool special-education program. Since most students had moderate speech disorders, teachers decided to deemphasize linguistic expression in favor of the other seven intelligences. They created successful units exploring patterns and size…

  20. 50 CFR 665.806 - Prohibited area management.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... NWHI, as follows: Name N. lat. W. long. Nihoa Island 23°05′ 161°55′ Necker Island 23°35′ 164°40′ French..., French Frigate Shoals and Gardner Pinnacles, Gardner Pinnacles and Maro Reef, and Lisianski Island and...

  1. 50 CFR 665.806 - Prohibited area management.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... NWHI, as follows: Name N. lat. W. long. Nihoa Island 23°05′ 161°55′ Necker Island 23°35′ 164°40′ French..., French Frigate Shoals and Gardner Pinnacles, Gardner Pinnacles and Maro Reef, and Lisianski Island and...

  2. 50 CFR 665.806 - Prohibited area management.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... NWHI, as follows: Name N. lat. W. long. Nihoa Island 23°05′ 161°55′ Necker Island 23°35′ 164°40′ French..., French Frigate Shoals and Gardner Pinnacles, Gardner Pinnacles and Maro Reef, and Lisianski Island and...

  3. 50 CFR 665.806 - Prohibited area management.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... NWHI, as follows: Name N. lat. W. long. Nihoa Island 23°05′ 161°55′ Necker Island 23°35′ 164°40′ French..., French Frigate Shoals and Gardner Pinnacles, Gardner Pinnacles and Maro Reef, and Lisianski Island and...

  4. The Socio-Educational Model of Music Motivation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    MacIntyre, Peter D.; Potter, Gillian K.; Burns, Jillian N.

    2012-01-01

    The well-established socio-educational model of second language learning motivation developed by R. C. Gardner was adapted and applied to study instrumental music learning motivation. The similarities between music and language suggested that the adaptation might lead to new insights in the study of music motivation. At the heart of the proposed…

  5. The Actualization of Literary Learning Model Based on Verbal-Linguistic Intelligence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hali, Nur Ihsan

    2017-01-01

    This article is inspired by Howard Gardner's concept of linguistic intelligence and also from some authors' previous writings. All of them became the authors' reference in developing ideas on constructing a literary learning model based on linguistic intelligence. The writing of this article is not done by collecting data empirically, but by…

  6. Intraclass Correlation Coefficients in Hierarchical Design Studies with Discrete Response Variables: A Note on a Direct Interval Estimation Procedure

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Raykov, Tenko; Marcoulides, George A.

    2015-01-01

    A latent variable modeling procedure that can be used to evaluate intraclass correlation coefficients in two-level settings with discrete response variables is discussed. The approach is readily applied when the purpose is to furnish confidence intervals at prespecified confidence levels for these coefficients in setups with binary or ordinal…

  7. Astronaut Dale Gardner using MMU to travel to Westar VI satellite

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1984-01-01

    Astronaut Dale A. Gardner, wearing the manned maneuvering unit (MMU) approaching the spinng Westar VI satellite over Bahama Banks. The end effector of the remote manipulator system (RMS) controlled by Dr. Anna L. Fisher inside Discovery's cabin, awaits its duty at right.

  8. Johari-Goldstein Relaxation Far Below Tg: Experimental Evidence for the Gardner Transition in Structural Glasses?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Geirhos, K.; Lunkenheimer, P.; Loidl, A.

    2018-02-01

    Experimental evidence for the Gardner transition, theoretically predicted to arise deep in the glassy state of matter, is scarce. At this transition, the energy landscape sensed by the particles forming the glass is expected to become more complex. In the present Letter, we report the dielectric response of two typical glass formers with well-pronounced Johari-Goldstein β relaxation, following this response down to unprecedented low temperatures, far below the glass transition. As the Johari-Goldstein process is believed to arise from the local structure of the energy landscape, its investigation seems an ideal tool to seek evidence for the Gardner transition. Indeed, we find an unusual broadening of the β relaxation below about 110 K for sorbitol and 100 K for xylitol, in excess of the expected broadening arising from a distribution of energy barriers. These results are well consistent with the presence of the Gardner transition in canonical structural glass formers.

  9. Simulation modeling of forest landscape disturbances: Where do we go from here?

    Treesearch

    Ajith H. Perera; Brian R. Sturtevant; Lisa J. Buse

    2015-01-01

    It was nearly a quarter-century ago when Turner and Gardner (1991) drew attention to methods of quantifying landscape patterns and processes, including simulation modeling. The many authors who contributed to that seminal text collectively signaled the emergence of a new field—spatially explicit simulation modeling of broad-scale ecosystem dynamics. Of particular note...

  10. Periodic solutions for one dimensional wave equation with bounded nonlinearity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ji, Shuguan

    2018-05-01

    This paper is concerned with the periodic solutions for the one dimensional nonlinear wave equation with either constant or variable coefficients. The constant coefficient model corresponds to the classical wave equation, while the variable coefficient model arises from the forced vibrations of a nonhomogeneous string and the propagation of seismic waves in nonisotropic media. For finding the periodic solutions of variable coefficient wave equation, it is usually required that the coefficient u (x) satisfies ess infηu (x) > 0 with ηu (x) = 1/2 u″/u - 1/4 (u‧/u)2, which actually excludes the classical constant coefficient model. For the case ηu (x) = 0, it is indicated to remain an open problem by Barbu and Pavel (1997) [6]. In this work, for the periods having the form T = 2p-1/q (p , q are positive integers) and some types of boundary value conditions, we find some fundamental properties for the wave operator with either constant or variable coefficients. Based on these properties, we obtain the existence of periodic solutions when the nonlinearity is monotone and bounded. Such nonlinearity may cross multiple eigenvalues of the corresponding wave operator. In particular, we do not require the condition ess infηu (x) > 0.

  11. Creativity, Curiosity, Exploded Chickens.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Seal, David O.

    1995-01-01

    A discussion of creativity and curiosity, particularly in the context of college instruction, examines two psychological models of creativity, the cognitive approach of Howard Gardner and one aligned with depth psychology (James Hillman). Commonalities are noted: preference for mess over management and for boundaries transgressed rather than…

  12. Forage kochia and Russian wildrye potential for rehabilitating Gardner's saltbush ecosystems degraded by halogeton

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Gardner saltbush ecosystems are increasingly being invaded by halogeton (Halogeton glomeratus), which is extremely competitive and believed to increase soil surface salinity making it difficult to establish other desired plants. This study evaluated the ability of forage kochia (Kochia prostrata), ...

  13. An Holistic Approach for Counsellors: Embracing Multiple Intelligences

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Booth, Rosslyn; O'Brien, Patrick John

    2008-01-01

    This paper explores a range of therapeutic modalities used by counsellors of children and positions those modalities within Gardner's theory of multiple intelligences. Research by O'Brien ("Gardner's theory of multiple intelligence and its implications for the counselling of children." Unpublished doctoral dissertation, Queensland University of…

  14. Reframing the Mind

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Willingham, Daniel T.

    2004-01-01

    This article discusses Howard Gardner and his theory of multiple intelligences. Gardner became a hero among educators simply by redefining talents as "intelligences" in a theory first proposed in 1983. Since then, his theory has undergone incremental but not fundamental change, including the addition of one intelligence (bringing the total to…

  15. Multiple Intelligences in the Schools.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Quigley, Kathleen M.

    Within the context of school improvement and school reform, it is important to examine Howard Gardner's theory of multiple intelligences (MI theory). His work has far-reaching implications for curriculum development and classroom implementation. Gardner believes that the culture defines intelligence too narrowly. He sought to broaden the scope of…

  16. Multiple Intelligences: A Collection.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fogarty, Robin, Ed.; Bellanca, James, Ed.

    As a concise resource for Howard Gardner's theory of multiple intelligences and its implications for schooling around the world, this collection is designed for educators, parents, and others interested in education. The first section discusses Gardner and his background, and the second section expounds his theory. The third section explores the…

  17. Conceptions of Intelligence and Giftedness.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bireley, Marlene

    This paper presents a review of the major ideas on the nature of intelligence and giftedness. Especially noted are theories of Howard Gardner, Robert Sternberg, and J.P. Das. Gardner expanded traditional notions of intelligence to include such talents as spatial ability, musical intelligence, bodily-kinesthetic intelligence, and interpersonal and…

  18. Learning and Teaching through the Naturalist Intelligence.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Meyer, Maggie

    1998-01-01

    Howard Gardner defines naturalists as persons who recognize flora and fauna and other consequential distinctions in the natural world and use this ability productively. A sixth-grade teacher discusses Gardner's theory of multiple intelligences, specifically the naturalist intelligence, and suggests ways to teach the naturalist intelligence through…

  19. Fully nonlinear theory of transcritical shallow-water flow past topography

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    El, Gennady; Grimshaw, Roger; Smyth, Noel

    2010-05-01

    In this talk recent results on the generation of undular bores in one-dimensional fully nonlinear shallow-water flows past localised topographies will be presented. The description is made in the framework of the forced Su-Gardner (a.k.a. 1D Green-Naghdi) system of equations, with a primary focus on the transcritical regime when the Froude number of the oncoming flow is close to unity. A combination of the local transcritical hydraulic solution over the localized topography, which produces upstream and downstream hydraulic jumps, and unsteady undular bore solutions describing the resolution of these hydraulic jumps, is used to describe various flow regimes depending on the combination of the topography height and the Froude number. We take advantage of the recently developed modulation theory of Su-Gardner undular bores to derive the main parameters of transcritical fully nonlinear shallow-water flow, such as the leading solitary wave amplitudes for the upstream and downstream undular bores, the speeds of the undular bores edges and the drag force. Our results confirm that most of the features of the previously developed description in the framework of the uni-directional forced KdV model hold up qualitatively for finite amplitude waves, while the quantitative description can be obtained in the framework of the bi-directional forced Su-Gardner system.

  20. Understanding the Theory of Multiple Intelligences. Staff Workshop Handout

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Early Childhood Today, 2005

    2005-01-01

    In his "Theory of Multiple Intelligences," Dr. Howard Gardner expands the concept of intelligence to include such areas as music, spatial relations, and interpersonal knowledge in addition to the traditional view of two intelligences--mathematical and linguistic. Using biological as well as cultural research, Gardner formulated a list of seven…

  1. Forage kochia and Russian wildrye potential for rehabilitating Gardner's saltbush ecosystems degraded by halogeton

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Gardner saltbush ecosystems are increasingly being invaded by halogeton [Halogeton glomeratus (M. Bieb.) C.A. Mey.], an annual halophyte that increases soil surface salinity and reduces plant biodiversity. This study was established in the Flaming Gorge National Recreation Area near Manilla, UT, to...

  2. If the Shoe Fits...How To Develop Multiple Intelligences in the Classroom.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chapman, Carolyn

    This guide provides a rationale and approach for translating Howard Gardner's theory of multiple intelligences into classroom practice. Chapter 1 explains Gardner's theory and gives the definitions of the seven intelligences he identifies: verbal/linguistic, musical/rhythmic, logical/mathematical, visual/spatial, bodily/kinesthetic, intrapersonal,…

  3. Applying Multiple Intelligences

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Christodoulou, Joanna A.

    2009-01-01

    The ideas of multiple intelligences introduced by Howard Gardner of Harvard University more than 25 years ago have taken form in many ways, both in schools and in other sometimes-surprising settings. The silver anniversary of Gardner's learning theory provides an opportunity to reflect on the ways multiple intelligences theory has taken form and…

  4. How ocean lateral mixing changes Southern Ocean variability in coupled climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pradal, M. A. S.; Gnanadesikan, A.; Thomas, J. L.

    2016-02-01

    The lateral mixing of tracers represents a major uncertainty in the formulation of coupled climate models. The mixing of tracers along density surfaces in the interior and horizontally within the mixed layer is often parameterized using a mixing coefficient ARedi. The models used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 exhibit more than an order of magnitude range in the values of this coefficient used within the Southern Ocean. The impacts of such uncertainty on Southern Ocean variability have remained unclear, even as recent work has shown that this variability differs between different models. In this poster, we change the lateral mixing coefficient within GFDL ESM2Mc, a coarse-resolution Earth System model that nonetheless has a reasonable circulation within the Southern Ocean. As the coefficient varies from 400 to 2400 m2/s the amplitude of the variability varies significantly. The low-mixing case shows strong decadal variability with an annual mean RMS temperature variability exceeding 1C in the Circumpolar Current. The highest-mixing case shows a very similar spatial pattern of variability, but with amplitudes only about 60% as large. The suppression of mixing is larger in the Atlantic Sector of the Southern Ocean relatively to the Pacific sector. We examine the salinity budgets of convective regions, paying particular attention to the extent to which high mixing prevents the buildup of low-saline waters that are capable of shutting off deep convection entirely.

  5. An efficient deterministic-probabilistic approach to modeling regional groundwater flow: 2. Application to Owens Valley, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Guymon, Gary L.; Yen, Chung-Cheng

    1990-01-01

    The applicability of a deterministic-probabilistic model for predicting water tables in southern Owens Valley, California, is evaluated. The model is based on a two-layer deterministic model that is cascaded with a two-point probability model. To reduce the potentially large number of uncertain variables in the deterministic model, lumping of uncertain variables was evaluated by sensitivity analysis to reduce the total number of uncertain variables to three variables: hydraulic conductivity, storage coefficient or specific yield, and source-sink function. Results demonstrate that lumping of uncertain parameters reduces computational effort while providing sufficient precision for the case studied. Simulated spatial coefficients of variation for water table temporal position in most of the basin is small, which suggests that deterministic models can predict water tables in these areas with good precision. However, in several important areas where pumping occurs or the geology is complex, the simulated spatial coefficients of variation are over estimated by the two-point probability method.

  6. An efficient deterministic-probabilistic approach to modeling regional groundwater flow: 2. Application to Owens Valley, California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guymon, Gary L.; Yen, Chung-Cheng

    1990-07-01

    The applicability of a deterministic-probabilistic model for predicting water tables in southern Owens Valley, California, is evaluated. The model is based on a two-layer deterministic model that is cascaded with a two-point probability model. To reduce the potentially large number of uncertain variables in the deterministic model, lumping of uncertain variables was evaluated by sensitivity analysis to reduce the total number of uncertain variables to three variables: hydraulic conductivity, storage coefficient or specific yield, and source-sink function. Results demonstrate that lumping of uncertain parameters reduces computational effort while providing sufficient precision for the case studied. Simulated spatial coefficients of variation for water table temporal position in most of the basin is small, which suggests that deterministic models can predict water tables in these areas with good precision. However, in several important areas where pumping occurs or the geology is complex, the simulated spatial coefficients of variation are over estimated by the two-point probability method.

  7. Evaluation of Reliability Coefficients for Two-Level Models via Latent Variable Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Raykov, Tenko; Penev, Spiridon

    2010-01-01

    A latent variable analysis procedure for evaluation of reliability coefficients for 2-level models is outlined. The method provides point and interval estimates of group means' reliability, overall reliability of means, and conditional reliability. In addition, the approach can be used to test simple hypotheses about these parameters. The…

  8. Intraclass Correlation Coefficients in Hierarchical Designs: Evaluation Using Latent Variable Modeling

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Raykov, Tenko

    2011-01-01

    Interval estimation of intraclass correlation coefficients in hierarchical designs is discussed within a latent variable modeling framework. A method accomplishing this aim is outlined, which is applicable in two-level studies where participants (or generally lower-order units) are clustered within higher-order units. The procedure can also be…

  9. Howard Gardner on Learning for Understanding.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Steinberger, Elizabeth Donohoe

    1994-01-01

    Howard Gardner is known for his theory of multiple intelligences, which holds that each individual's unique smartness cannot be measured by conventional IQ tests. Even the best students have flawed theories about existence and human behavior. Schools teach and assess everybody as though each has the same kind of mind. The ATLAS project respects…

  10. Perspective on Certainty-Based Marking: An Interview with Tony Gardner-Medwin

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cornwell, Reid; Gardner-Medwin, Tony

    2008-01-01

    In this edition of Perspectives, Reid Cornwell discusses certainty-based marking (CBM) with Tony Gardner-Medwin, professor emeritus of physiology at University College London (UCL), which adopted a simple, theoretically sound version of CBM in its medical education program. CBM has been shown to encourage thinking, reflection, improved analysis,…

  11. Curriculum Integration: The Use of Technology to Support Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jackson, Allen; Gaudet, Laura; McDaniel, Larry; Brammer, Dawn

    2009-01-01

    Our understanding of how people learn is continually changing. Howard Gardner's Theory of Multiple Intelligences revolutionized the field education, because it accounts for a broader range of human potential in children and adults and suggests that individuals learn in a multitude of ways. Gardner's theory suggests there are a variety of…

  12. Theories of Intelligence, Learning, and Motivation as a Basis for Praxis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nderu-Boddington, Eulalee

    2008-01-01

    This paper examines how Piaget, Werner, and Gardner differ regarding the roles of cognition, intelligence, and learning in the developmental process. Piaget believes in the predominance of genetic factors. Werner stresses the influence of biological factors, while Gardner proposes that the environment plays a greater influence in how intelligence…

  13. Student Management and Human Intelligence Skills Enhanced through Community Service

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wilson, Stefanie Denise

    2012-01-01

    Based on years of human intelligence research conducted by Howard Gardner and results from a quantitative research study supporting Gardner's research collected from a sample of 205 faculty within the United States, the researcher examined students that are actively engaged in community service experiences and their approaches to reframing their…

  14. Efficacy in Teaching through "Multiple Intelligence" Instructional Strategies

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tamilselvi, B.; Geetha, D.

    2015-01-01

    Multiple intelligence is the theory that "people are smart in more ways than one has immense implication for educators". Howard Gardner proposed a new view of intelligence that is rapidly being incorporated in school curricula. In his theory of Multiple Intelligences, Gardner expanded the concept of intelligence with such areas as music,…

  15. Insights from the Use of Gardner's Notions of Mindset: Group Work

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Retna, Kala S.

    2015-01-01

    A body of literature asserts that group work can be beneficial in enhancing learning and in developing specific skills among students. This research builds on the literature and on Gardner's (2006a) five notions of mindsets: disciplined, synthesising, creation, ethical and respectful, as a descriptive framework to explore and understand the…

  16. Playing with the Multiple Intelligences: How Play Helps Them Grow

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Eberle, Scott G.

    2011-01-01

    Howard Gardner first posited a list of "multiple intelligences" as a liberating alternative to the assumptions underlying traditional IQ testing in his widely read study "Frames of Mind" (1983). Play has appeared only in passing in Gardner's thinking about intelligence, however, even though play instructs and trains the verbal, interpersonal,…

  17. An Intelligent Use for Belief

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Aborn, Matt

    2006-01-01

    Over the last three decades there has been a major shift in how practicing educators think about intelligence. One great driving force of this change can be attributed to "Frames of Mind: Theory of Multiple Intelligences," written by Howard Gardner in 1983. Gardner's book is conceived around the premise that every human being maintains seven (now…

  18. Martin Gardner's Mistake

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Khovanova, Tanya

    2012-01-01

    When Martin Gardner first presented the Two-Children problem, he made a mistake in its solution. Later he corrected the error, but unfortunately the incorrect solution is more widely known than his correction. In fact, a Tuesday-Child variation of this problem went viral in 2010, and the same flaw keeps reappearing in proposed solutions of that…

  19. A Direct Latent Variable Modeling Based Method for Point and Interval Estimation of Coefficient Alpha

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Raykov, Tenko; Marcoulides, George A.

    2015-01-01

    A direct approach to point and interval estimation of Cronbach's coefficient alpha for multiple component measuring instruments is outlined. The procedure is based on a latent variable modeling application with widely circulated software. As a by-product, using sample data the method permits ascertaining whether the population discrepancy…

  20. The Relationship between Music Instruction and Academic Achievement in Mathematics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sharpe, Nechelle Nipper

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between music instruction and mathematics achievement scores for 6th grade students at an Atlanta public school. Guided by Gardner's multiple intelligences model, neurological research, and National Consortium of Arts Education research, this study used a quasi-experimental…

  1. Gardner's Two Children Problems and Variations: Puzzles with Conditional Probability and Sample Spaces

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Taylor, Wendy; Stacey, Kaye

    2014-01-01

    This article presents "The Two Children Problem," published by Martin Gardner, who wrote a famous and widely-read math puzzle column in the magazine "Scientific American," and a problem presented by puzzler Gary Foshee. This paper explains the paradox of Problems 2 and 3 and many other variations of the theme. Then the authors…

  2. Enhancing Multiple Intelligences in Children Who Are Blind: A Guide to Improving Curricular Activities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Al-Balushi, Sulaiman Mohammed

    2006-01-01

    Howard Gardner's Theory of Multiple Intelligences has provided educators with a new view of intelligence. It emphasizes that science, math and language are not the only ways to exhibit intelligence. People exhibit intelligence in many different ways. Each type of intelligence is as valuable as the others. Gardner classifies these intelligences…

  3. Exploring the Application of Multiple Intelligences Theory to Career Counseling

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shearer, C. Branton; Luzzo, Darrell Anthony

    2009-01-01

    This article demonstrates the practical value of applying H. Gardner's (1993) theory of multiple intelligences (MI) to the practice of career counseling. An overview of H. Gardner's MI theory is presented, and the ways in which educational and vocational planning can be augmented by the integration of MI theory in career counseling contexts are…

  4. You're Smarter Than You Think: A Kid's Guide to Multiple Intelligences.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Armstrong, Thomas

    This book is intended to show children how to put Howard Gardner's theory of multiple intelligences (MI) into practice in their own lives. An introductory chapter discusses the nature of intelligence and introduces Gardner's theory and eight types of intelligences. Then a chapter is given to each of the eight intelligences: (1) "Word…

  5. Seven Windows to a Child's World: 100 Ideas for the Multiple Intelligences Classroom. Pre K-3. First Printing.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    O'Connor, Anna T.; Callahan-Young, Sheila

    While traditional schooling has focused mainly on math and linguistic skills, psychologist Howard Gardner suggests that there are at least five additional ways of learning. This curriculum guide applies Gardner's theory of multiple intelligences to the kindergarten class, providing teachers with a practical, thematic approach that will challenge…

  6. Predicting Chromophoric Dissolved Organic Matter Distributions in Coastal Waters

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2006-01-01

    Predicting Chromophoric Dissolved Organic Matter Distributions in Coastal Waters Robert F. Chen Environmental , Earth and Ocean Sciences...G. Bernard Gardner Environmental , Coastal and Ocean Sciences University of Massachusetts Boston 100 Morrissey Boulevard Boston, MA 02125-3393...phone: (617)287-7451 fax: (617)287-7474 email: bernie.gardner@umb.edu Yong Tian Environmental , Coastal and Ocean Sciences University of

  7. Predicting Chromophoric Dissolved Organic Matter Distributions in Coastal Waters

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2007-09-30

    Predicting Chromophoric Dissolved Organic Matter Distributions in Coastal Waters Robert F. Chen Environmental , Earth and Ocean Sciences...G. Bernard Gardner Environmental , Coastal and Ocean Sciences University of Massachusetts Boston 100 Morrissey Boulevard Boston, MA 02125-3393...phone: (617)287-7451 fax: (617)287-7474 email: bernie.gardner@umb.edu Yong Tian Environmental , Coastal and Ocean Sciences University of

  8. Predicting Chromophoric Dissolved Organic Matter Distributions in Coastal Waters

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2008-09-30

    Predicting Chromophoric Dissolved Organic Matter Distributions in Coastal Waters Robert F. Chen Environmental , Earth and Ocean...umb.edu G. Bernard Gardner Environmental , Coastal and Ocean Sciences University of Massachusetts Boston 100 Morrissey Boulevard Boston, MA...02125-3393 phone: (617) 287-7451 fax: (617) 287-7474 email: bernie.gardner@umb.edu Yong Tian Environmental , Coastal and Ocean Sciences

  9. Astronat Dale Gardner using MMU to travel to Westar VI satellite

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1984-01-01

    Astronat Dale A. Gardner appears to be under the remote manipulator system (RMS) end effector as he makes a turn in space and preapares to use the manned maneuvering unit (MMU) to travel to Westar VI satellite. The 'stinger' he carries will enter the communications satellite through the nozzle of the spent motor.

  10. Impact of alpine meadow degradation on soil hydraulic properties over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zeng, Chen; Zhang, Fan; Wang, Quanjiu; Chen, Yingying; Joswiak, Daniel R.

    2013-01-01

    SummaryAlpine meadow soil is an important ecosystem component of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. However, the alpine meadow soil is undergoing serious degradation mainly due to global climate change, overgrazing, human activities and rodents. In this paper, spatial sequencing was chosen over time succession sequencing to study the changes of soil hydraulic properties under different degrees of alpine meadow degradation. Soil saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ks) and Gardner α both at the surface and at 40-50 cm depth were investigated in the field using tension infiltrometers. Soil physical and chemical properties, together with the root index at 0-10 cm and 40-50 cm soil layer depths were also analyzed. Pearson correlations were adopted to study the relationships among the investigated factors and principal component analysis was performed to identify the dominant factor. Results show that with increasing degree of degradation, soil sand content increased while soil Ks and Gardner α as well as soil clay content, soil porosity decreased in the 0-10 cm soil layers, and organic matter and root gravimetric density decreased in both the 0-10 cm and 40-50 cm soil layers. However, soil moisture showed no significant changes with increasing degradation. With decreasing pressure head, soil unsaturated hydraulic conductivity reduced more slowly under degraded conditions than non-degraded conditions. Soil Ks and Gardner α were significantly correlated (P = 0.01) with bulk density, soil porosity, soil organic matter and root gravimetric density. Among these, soil porosity is the dominant factor explaining about 90% of the variability in total infiltration flow. Under non-degraded conditions, the infiltration flow principally depended on the presence of macropores. With increasing degree of degradation, soil macropores quickly changed to mesopores or micropores. The proportion of total infiltration flow through macropores and mesopores significantly decreased with the most substantial decrease observed for the macropores in the 0-10 cm soil layer. The substantial decrease of macropores caused a cut in soil moisture and hydraulic conductivity. This study improves the understanding and prediction of alpine meadow soil and ecosystem changes and provides guidelines for improving water flow modeling under the background of global climate change over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and similar regions.

  11. Improvement of the variable storage coefficient method with water surface gradient as a variable

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    The variable storage coefficient (VSC) method has been used for streamflow routing in continuous hydrological simulation models such as the Agricultural Policy/Environmental eXtender (APEX) and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for more than 30 years. APEX operates on a daily time step and ...

  12. Random effects coefficient of determination for mixed and meta-analysis models

    PubMed Central

    Demidenko, Eugene; Sargent, James; Onega, Tracy

    2011-01-01

    The key feature of a mixed model is the presence of random effects. We have developed a coefficient, called the random effects coefficient of determination, Rr2, that estimates the proportion of the conditional variance of the dependent variable explained by random effects. This coefficient takes values from 0 to 1 and indicates how strong the random effects are. The difference from the earlier suggested fixed effects coefficient of determination is emphasized. If Rr2 is close to 0, there is weak support for random effects in the model because the reduction of the variance of the dependent variable due to random effects is small; consequently, random effects may be ignored and the model simplifies to standard linear regression. The value of Rr2 apart from 0 indicates the evidence of the variance reduction in support of the mixed model. If random effects coefficient of determination is close to 1 the variance of random effects is very large and random effects turn into free fixed effects—the model can be estimated using the dummy variable approach. We derive explicit formulas for Rr2 in three special cases: the random intercept model, the growth curve model, and meta-analysis model. Theoretical results are illustrated with three mixed model examples: (1) travel time to the nearest cancer center for women with breast cancer in the U.S., (2) cumulative time watching alcohol related scenes in movies among young U.S. teens, as a risk factor for early drinking onset, and (3) the classic example of the meta-analysis model for combination of 13 studies on tuberculosis vaccine. PMID:23750070

  13. The Effect of a Variable Disc Pad Friction Coefficient for the Mechanical Brake System of a Railway Vehicle

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Nam-Jin; Kang, Chul-Goo

    2015-01-01

    A brake hardware-in-the-loop simulation (HILS) system for a railway vehicle is widely applied to estimate and validate braking performance in research studies and field tests. When we develop a simulation model for a full vehicle system, the characteristics of all components are generally properly simplified based on the understanding of each component’s purpose and interaction with other components. The friction coefficient between the brake disc and the pad used in simulations has been conventionally considered constant, and the effect of a variable friction coefficient is ignored with the assumption that the variability affects the performance of the vehicle braking very little. However, the friction coefficient of a disc pad changes significantly within a range due to environmental conditions, and thus, the friction coefficient can affect the performance of the brakes considerably, especially on the wheel slide. In this paper, we apply a variable friction coefficient and analyzed the effects of the variable friction coefficient on a mechanical brake system of a railway vehicle. We introduce a mathematical formula for the variable friction coefficient in which the variable friction is represented by two variables and five parameters. The proposed formula is applied to real-time simulations using a brake HILS system, and the effectiveness of the formula is verified experimentally by testing the mechanical braking performance of the brake HILS system. PMID:26267883

  14. The Effect of a Variable Disc Pad Friction Coefficient for the Mechanical Brake System of a Railway Vehicle.

    PubMed

    Lee, Nam-Jin; Kang, Chul-Goo

    2015-01-01

    A brake hardware-in-the-loop simulation (HILS) system for a railway vehicle is widely applied to estimate and validate braking performance in research studies and field tests. When we develop a simulation model for a full vehicle system, the characteristics of all components are generally properly simplified based on the understanding of each component's purpose and interaction with other components. The friction coefficient between the brake disc and the pad used in simulations has been conventionally considered constant, and the effect of a variable friction coefficient is ignored with the assumption that the variability affects the performance of the vehicle braking very little. However, the friction coefficient of a disc pad changes significantly within a range due to environmental conditions, and thus, the friction coefficient can affect the performance of the brakes considerably, especially on the wheel slide. In this paper, we apply a variable friction coefficient and analyzed the effects of the variable friction coefficient on a mechanical brake system of a railway vehicle. We introduce a mathematical formula for the variable friction coefficient in which the variable friction is represented by two variables and five parameters. The proposed formula is applied to real-time simulations using a brake HILS system, and the effectiveness of the formula is verified experimentally by testing the mechanical braking performance of the brake HILS system.

  15. Identifying Bearing Rotodynamic Coefficients Using an Extended Kalman Filter

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Miller, Brad A.; Howard, Samuel A.

    2008-01-01

    An Extended Kalman Filter is developed to estimate the linearized direct and indirect stiffness and damping force coefficients for bearings in rotor dynamic applications from noisy measurements of the shaft displacement in response to imbalance and impact excitation. The bearing properties are modeled as stochastic random variables using a Gauss-Markov model. Noise terms are introduced into the system model to account for all of the estimation error, including modeling errors and uncertainties and the propagation of measurement errors into the parameter estimates. The system model contains two user-defined parameters that can be tuned to improve the filter's performance; these parameters correspond to the covariance of the system and measurement noise variables. The filter is also strongly influenced by the initial values of the states and the error covariance matrix. The filter is demonstrated using numerically simulated data for a rotor bearing system with two identical bearings, which reduces the number of unknown linear dynamic coefficients to eight. The filter estimates for the direct damping coefficients and all four stiffness coefficients correlated well with actual values, whereas the estimates for the cross-coupled damping coefficients were the least accurate.

  16. The Longer They Stay the Less Talented They Perceive They Are: Females' Talent Based on Approaches to Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bowles, Terry

    2012-01-01

    A cohort of female adolescents from 11 to 18 Years of age (n = 325) completed a questionnaire based on Gardner's theory of multiple intelligences (Gardner, 1999) to examine their perception of their talents as they progressed through secondary school. Results showed that the highest ranking talents were Physical and Sport Activity, and Language…

  17. Becoming a Community School: A Study of Oakland Unified School District Community School Implementation, 2015-2016

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fehrer, Kendra; Leos-Urbel, Jacob; Messner, Erica; Riley, Nicole

    2016-01-01

    Since 2014, Oakland Unified School District (OUSD) has partnered with the Gardner Center for Youth and Their Communities at Stanford University (Gardner Center) to support OUSD's efforts to assess, enhance, and scale their community schools work. They began by working with the district to develop a System Strategy Map to articulate the district's…

  18. Structure, Content, and Process in Teacher Training: The Relevance of Copernicus, Gardner, and Dewey.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Soares, Louise M.

    1998-01-01

    Argues that a unique combination of (1) the Copernican Plan for block scheduling; (2) the application of Howard Gardner's theory of multiple intelligences; and (3) John Dewey's basic ideas about process create a teacher training program in which mastery is an achievable goal. Describes each component and illustrates how each has worked in one…

  19. The Evolution of Creativity, Giftedness, and Multiple Intelligences: An Interview with Ellen Winner and Howard Gardner

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Henshon, Suzanna E.

    2006-01-01

    This article presents an interview with Ellen Winner and Howard Gardner. Winner is Professor of Psychology at Boston College, and Senior Research Associate at Project Zero, Harvard Graduate School of Education. Her research focuses on learning and cognition in the arts in typical and gifted children. She is the author of over 100 articles and…

  20. Experimental evidences of the Gardner phase in a granular glass

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dauchot, Olivier; Seguin, Antoine

    The constituent particles of a glass are caged by their neighbors and thus cannot relax density fluctuations. This is also true for hard particles under compression. The associated slowing down of the dynamics is related to a complex free energy landscape. It was recently shown theoretically that the hard sphere glass in infinite dimension undergoes a Gardner transition, at which the glass basin breaks into a hierarchy of marginally stable sub-basins. This was very recently confirmed in simulations of 2d and 3d hard sphere (HS) glasses. We present the first direct experimental evidences of the Gardner phase, taking advantage of a well controlled granular experiment, which has already proven to successfully probe the vicinity of the jamming transition in a bi-dimensional granular glass former. More precisely, we perform independent compressions of a carefully prepared granular glass and show that for large enough compression, the final state differs from one compression to another. To do so we compare the average cage size within one state, and the average distance separating the cages of the same particles across successive compression cycles. The latter plateaus to a constant value, when entering the Gardner phase.

  1. The Effects of Multiple Intelligence Teaching Strategies on Achievement in Reading and Mathematics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Harriman, Vanessa

    2010-01-01

    Today's educators must use research-based teaching strategies that increase achievement levels of students. Howard Gardner's Theory of Multiple Intelligences is scientifically-based. The current model suggests eight different areas in which a person can demonstrate intelligence. This study compared reading and math assessments score of elementary…

  2. Connecting Multiple Intelligences through Open and Distance Learning: Going towards a Collective Intelligence?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Medeiros Vieira, Leandro Mauricio; Ferasso, Marcos; Schröeder, Christine da Silva

    2014-01-01

    This theoretical essay is a learning approach reflexion on Howard Gardner's Theory of Multiple Intelligences and the possibilities provided by the education model known as open and distance learning. Open and distance learning can revolutionize traditional pedagogical practice, meeting the needs of those who have different forms of cognitive…

  3. Adults as Learners: Proceedings of a Conference.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bortner, Rayman W., Ed.; And Others

    The proceedings consist of 11 papers grouped in two major categories: the context of adult learning (social significance and fact and fiction about adult learning) and the utilization of learning models for adult instruction. Contributors are Floyd B. Fischer, George L. Maddox, Rolf H. Monge, Eric F. Gardner, Arthur W. Combs, William J. Hoyer,…

  4. Early Childhood Education: A Model for 21st Century Secondary Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Berndt, Rene

    2012-01-01

    As the designer of primary and secondary educational facilities, the author has become familiar with educational thinkers such as Sir Kenneth Robinson, Peter Senge, Ewan McIntosh, Daniel Pink and Howard Gardner--each promoting an approach based on system-thinking, self-directed exploration and multidimensional, interactive learning. In 2009, he…

  5. Integrated Services and Supports in Oakland Community Schools. Knowledge Brief

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    John W. Gardner Center for Youth and Their Communities, 2015

    2015-01-01

    This brief is part of a series that shares findings from a research collaboration between the John W. Gardner Center for Youth and Their Communities at Stanford University and Oakland Unified School District (OUSD) focused on understanding implementation of the community school model in the district. This brief highlights findings related to…

  6. Teaching and Learning in Oakland Community Schools. Knowledge Brief

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    John W. Gardner Center for Youth and Their Communities, 2015

    2015-01-01

    This brief is part of a series that shares findings from a research collaboration between the John W. Gardner Center for Youth and Their Communities at Stanford University and Oakland Unified School District (OUSD) focused on understanding implementation of the community school model in the district. Community schools aim to address students'…

  7. Chinese Language Learning Motivation: A Comparative Study of Heritage and Non-Heritage Learners

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wen, Xiaohong

    2011-01-01

    This study investigates attitudes and motivation that influence heritage and non-heritage students' learning of Chinese as a second language, examining the similarities and differences among three subgroups: bilingual, heritage motivated, and non-heritage learners. The study uses the socio-educational model by Gardner (1985), the internal…

  8. Organizational Structures to Support Oakland Community Schools. Knowledge Brief

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    John W. Gardner Center for Youth and Their Communities, 2015

    2015-01-01

    This brief is part of a series that shares findings from a research collaboration between the John W. Gardner Center for Youth and Their Communities at Stanford University and Oakland Unified School District (OUSD) focused on understanding implementation of the community school model in the district. This brief highlights findings related to…

  9. Random effects coefficient of determination for mixed and meta-analysis models.

    PubMed

    Demidenko, Eugene; Sargent, James; Onega, Tracy

    2012-01-01

    The key feature of a mixed model is the presence of random effects. We have developed a coefficient, called the random effects coefficient of determination, [Formula: see text], that estimates the proportion of the conditional variance of the dependent variable explained by random effects. This coefficient takes values from 0 to 1 and indicates how strong the random effects are. The difference from the earlier suggested fixed effects coefficient of determination is emphasized. If [Formula: see text] is close to 0, there is weak support for random effects in the model because the reduction of the variance of the dependent variable due to random effects is small; consequently, random effects may be ignored and the model simplifies to standard linear regression. The value of [Formula: see text] apart from 0 indicates the evidence of the variance reduction in support of the mixed model. If random effects coefficient of determination is close to 1 the variance of random effects is very large and random effects turn into free fixed effects-the model can be estimated using the dummy variable approach. We derive explicit formulas for [Formula: see text] in three special cases: the random intercept model, the growth curve model, and meta-analysis model. Theoretical results are illustrated with three mixed model examples: (1) travel time to the nearest cancer center for women with breast cancer in the U.S., (2) cumulative time watching alcohol related scenes in movies among young U.S. teens, as a risk factor for early drinking onset, and (3) the classic example of the meta-analysis model for combination of 13 studies on tuberculosis vaccine.

  10. Project Probes Digital Media's Effect on Ethics: Howard Gardner Leads Team Studying Youths' Web Norms

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Viadero, Debra

    2008-01-01

    Noted Harvard psychologist Howard Gardner is leading a team studying the social and ethical norms of young people on the Web. Known as the "GoodPlay Project," the study is being financed with a grant from the Chicago-based Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation. What researchers hope to do through the project is fill a gap in the burgeoning research…

  11. The Howard Gardner School: A Portrait of a Small Progressive, Independent and Alternative High School for Bright, Creative Non-Traditional Learners

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Drakeford, Jocelyn G.

    2010-01-01

    Howard Gardner's theory of multiple intelligences has impacted the educational community since its inception in 1983. The theory became the framework for Gifted and Talented Education, in that it broaden the scope of giftedness to be defined in the context of students being identified with nontraditional gifts and talents as well as combinations…

  12. Learner Outcomes in Science in South Africa: Role of the Nature of Learner Difficulties with the Language for Learning and Teaching Science

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Oyoo, Samuel Ouma

    2017-01-01

    Paul Leslie Gardner pioneered the study of student difficulties with everyday words presented in the science context (Gardner 1971); several similarly designed studies (e.g. Cassels and Johnstone 1985; Tao in "Research in Science Education," 24, 322-330, 1994; Farell and Ventura in "Language and Education," 12(4), 243-254,…

  13. Oranges Aren't the Only Fruit. Ask a Gardner: Some Implications of the National Literacy and Numeracy Stategies

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Byard, Kevin

    2004-01-01

    The introduction of the National Literacy and Numeracy strategies in U.K. schools is discussed in the light of Howard Gardner's theory of multiple intelligences. Although the core curriculum is evidently important, it is argued that the introduction of the national strategies has created a possible over-emphasis in these subjects at the expense of…

  14. Teaching Technology: From Knowing to Feeling Enhancing Emotional and Content Acquisition Performance through Gardner's Multiple Intelligences Theory in Technology and Design Lessons

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sanchez-Martin, Jesus; Alvarez-Gragera, Garcia J.; Davila-Acedo, Maria Antonia; Mellado, Vicente

    2017-01-01

    Gardner's Multiple Intelligences Theory (MIT) can be a cognitive and emotional improvement if is taken into account in the standard development of the Technology lessons. This work presents a preliminary evaluation of the performance enhancement in two concomitant aspects: contents acquisition and emotional yield. The study was made on up to 150…

  15. STS-27 ATLANTIS - ORBITER VEHICLE(OV)-104 - OFFICIAL CREW PORTRAIT

    NASA Image and Video Library

    1988-08-25

    S88-45002 (August 1988) --- These five astronauts will fly aboard the Space Shuttle Atlantis for the STS-27 mission. They are (seated left to right) astronauts Guy S. Gardner, Robert L. Gibson and Jerry L. Ross; and (standing, left to right) William M. Shepherd and Richard M. (Mike) Mullane. Gibson is commander; Gardner, pilot; and the other three will serve as mission specialists.

  16. Confidence Intervals and "F" Tests for Intraclass Correlation Coefficients Based on Three-Way Mixed Effects Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zhou, Hong; Muellerleile, Paige; Ingram, Debra; Wong, Seok P.

    2011-01-01

    Intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) are commonly used in behavioral measurement and psychometrics when a researcher is interested in the relationship among variables of a common class. The formulas for deriving ICCs, or generalizability coefficients, vary depending on which models are specified. This article gives the equations for…

  17. Multilevel Model Prediction

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Frees, Edward W.; Kim, Jee-Seon

    2006-01-01

    Multilevel models are proven tools in social research for modeling complex, hierarchical systems. In multilevel modeling, statistical inference is based largely on quantification of random variables. This paper distinguishes among three types of random variables in multilevel modeling--model disturbances, random coefficients, and future response…

  18. A fast collocation method for a variable-coefficient nonlocal diffusion model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Che; Wang, Hong

    2017-02-01

    We develop a fast collocation scheme for a variable-coefficient nonlocal diffusion model, for which a numerical discretization would yield a dense stiffness matrix. The development of the fast method is achieved by carefully handling the variable coefficients appearing inside the singular integral operator and exploiting the structure of the dense stiffness matrix. The resulting fast method reduces the computational work from O (N3) required by a commonly used direct solver to O (Nlog ⁡ N) per iteration and the memory requirement from O (N2) to O (N). Furthermore, the fast method reduces the computational work of assembling the stiffness matrix from O (N2) to O (N). Numerical results are presented to show the utility of the fast method.

  19. SPSS macros to compare any two fitted values from a regression model.

    PubMed

    Weaver, Bruce; Dubois, Sacha

    2012-12-01

    In regression models with first-order terms only, the coefficient for a given variable is typically interpreted as the change in the fitted value of Y for a one-unit increase in that variable, with all other variables held constant. Therefore, each regression coefficient represents the difference between two fitted values of Y. But the coefficients represent only a fraction of the possible fitted value comparisons that might be of interest to researchers. For many fitted value comparisons that are not captured by any of the regression coefficients, common statistical software packages do not provide the standard errors needed to compute confidence intervals or carry out statistical tests-particularly in more complex models that include interactions, polynomial terms, or regression splines. We describe two SPSS macros that implement a matrix algebra method for comparing any two fitted values from a regression model. The !OLScomp and !MLEcomp macros are for use with models fitted via ordinary least squares and maximum likelihood estimation, respectively. The output from the macros includes the standard error of the difference between the two fitted values, a 95% confidence interval for the difference, and a corresponding statistical test with its p-value.

  20. Implementations of geographically weighted lasso in spatial data with multicollinearity (Case study: Poverty modeling of Java Island)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Setiyorini, Anis; Suprijadi, Jadi; Handoko, Budhi

    2017-03-01

    Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) is a regression model that takes into account the spatial heterogeneity effect. In the application of the GWR, inference on regression coefficients is often of interest, as is estimation and prediction of the response variable. Empirical research and studies have demonstrated that local correlation between explanatory variables can lead to estimated regression coefficients in GWR that are strongly correlated, a condition named multicollinearity. It later results on a large standard error on estimated regression coefficients, and, hence, problematic for inference on relationships between variables. Geographically Weighted Lasso (GWL) is a method which capable to deal with spatial heterogeneity and local multicollinearity in spatial data sets. GWL is a further development of GWR method, which adds a LASSO (Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator) constraint in parameter estimation. In this study, GWL will be applied by using fixed exponential kernel weights matrix to establish a poverty modeling of Java Island, Indonesia. The results of applying the GWL to poverty datasets show that this method stabilizes regression coefficients in the presence of multicollinearity and produces lower prediction and estimation error of the response variable than GWR does.

  1. Identifying Bearing Rotordynamic Coefficients using an Extended Kalman Filter

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Miller, Brad A.; Howard, Samuel A.

    2008-01-01

    An Extended Kalman Filter is developed to estimate the linearized direct and indirect stiffness and damping force coefficients for bearings in rotor-dynamic applications from noisy measurements of the shaft displacement in response to imbalance and impact excitation. The bearing properties are modeled as stochastic random variables using a Gauss-Markov model. Noise terms are introduced into the system model to account for all of the estimation error, including modeling errors and uncertainties and the propagation of measurement errors into the parameter estimates. The system model contains two user-defined parameters that can be tuned to improve the filter s performance; these parameters correspond to the covariance of the system and measurement noise variables. The filter is also strongly influenced by the initial values of the states and the error covariance matrix. The filter is demonstrated using numerically simulated data for a rotor-bearing system with two identical bearings, which reduces the number of unknown linear dynamic coefficients to eight. The filter estimates for the direct damping coefficients and all four stiffness coefficients correlated well with actual values, whereas the estimates for the cross-coupled damping coefficients were the least accurate.

  2. A Spoken English Recognition Expert System.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1983-09-01

    Davidson. "Representation of Knowledge," Handbook of Artificial Intelligence, edited by Avron Barr and Edward A. Felgenbaum. DTIC document number AD...Regents of the University of CalTorni, 1981. 9. Gardner, Anne. "Search," Handbook of Artificial Intelligence, edited by Avron Barr and Edward A...Felgenbaum, DTIC document number AD A074078, 1979. 10. Gardner, Anne,et al. "Natural Language Understanding," Handbook of Artificial Intelligence, edited

  3. Asynchronous timing and Doppler recovery in DSP based DPSK modems for fixed and mobile satellite applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koblents, B.; Belanger, M.; Woods, D.; McLane, P. J.

    While conventional analog modems employ some kind of clock wave regenerator circuit for synchronous timing recovery, in sampled modem receivers the timing is recovered asynchronously to the incoming data stream, with no adjustment being made to the input sampling rate. All timing corrections are accomplished by digital operations on the sampled data stream, and timing recovery is asynchronous with the uncontrolled, input A/D system. A good timing error measurement algorithm is a zero crossing tracker proposed by Gardner. Digital, speech rate (2400 - 4800 bps) M-PSK modem receivers employing Gardner's zero crossing tracker were implemented and tested and found to achieve BER performance very close to theoretical values on the AWGN channel. Nyguist pulse shaped modem systems with excess bandwidth factors ranging from 100 to 60 percent were considered. We can show that for any symmetric M-PSK signal set Gardner's NDA algorithm is free of pattern jitter for any carrier phase offset for rectangular pulses and for Nyquist pulses having 100 percent excess bandwidth. Also, the Nyquist pulse shaped system is studied on the mobile satellite channel, where Doppler shifts and multipath fading degrade the pi/4-DQPSK signal. Two simple modifications to Gardner's zero crossing tracker enable it to remain useful in the presence of multipath fading.

  4. Asynchronous timing and Doppler recovery in DSP based DPSK modems for fixed and mobile satellite applications

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Koblents, B.; Belanger, M.; Woods, D.; Mclane, P. J.

    1993-01-01

    While conventional analog modems employ some kind of clock wave regenerator circuit for synchronous timing recovery, in sampled modem receivers the timing is recovered asynchronously to the incoming data stream, with no adjustment being made to the input sampling rate. All timing corrections are accomplished by digital operations on the sampled data stream, and timing recovery is asynchronous with the uncontrolled, input A/D system. A good timing error measurement algorithm is a zero crossing tracker proposed by Gardner. Digital, speech rate (2400 - 4800 bps) M-PSK modem receivers employing Gardner's zero crossing tracker were implemented and tested and found to achieve BER performance very close to theoretical values on the AWGN channel. Nyguist pulse shaped modem systems with excess bandwidth factors ranging from 100 to 60 percent were considered. We can show that for any symmetric M-PSK signal set Gardner's NDA algorithm is free of pattern jitter for any carrier phase offset for rectangular pulses and for Nyquist pulses having 100 percent excess bandwidth. Also, the Nyquist pulse shaped system is studied on the mobile satellite channel, where Doppler shifts and multipath fading degrade the pi/4-DQPSK signal. Two simple modifications to Gardner's zero crossing tracker enable it to remain useful in the presence of multipath fading.

  5. On solitons: the biomolecular nonlinear transmission line models with constant and time variable coefficients

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raza, Nauman; Murtaza, Isma Ghulam; Sial, Sultan; Younis, Muhammad

    2018-07-01

    The article studies the dynamics of solitons in electrical microtubule ? model, which describes the propagation of waves in nonlinear dynamical system. Microtubules are not only a passive support of a cell but also they have highly dynamic structures involved in cell motility, intracellular transport and signaling. The underlying model has been considered with constant and variable coefficients of time function. The solitary wave ansatz has been applied successfully to extract these solitons. The corresponding integrability criteria, also known as constraint conditions, naturally emerge from the analysis of these models.

  6. Project START: Using a Multiple Intelligences Model in Identifying and Promoting Talent in High-Risk Students. Research Monograph 95136.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Callahan, Carolyn M.; Tomlinson, Carol A.; Moon, Tonya R.; Tomchin, Ellen M.; Plucker, Jonathan A.

    This monograph describes Project START (Support To Affirm Rising Talent), a three-year collaborative research effort to develop and apply gifted identification procedures based on Howard Gardner's (1983) theory of multiple intelligences. Specifically, the study attempted to: (1) develop identification procedures; (2) identify high-potential…

  7. Why Do Chinese College Students Learn ESP: An Analysis of Language Learning Motivations within SDT Framework

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Liu, Liangxing

    2016-01-01

    This study mainly investigates the motivational characteristics of Chinese college students learning English for Specific Purposes (ESP). By critically examining and comparing Gardner's (1985) Integrative-Instrumental model and the Self-determination Theory (SDT) by Deci and Ryan(1985), the researcher finds out that the latter one is more…

  8. Multiple Ways of Knowing: Fostering Resiliency through Providing Opportunities for Participating in Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shepard, Jerri Simms

    2004-01-01

    The model of multiple intelligences developed by Howard Gardner is proposed as a framework for developing strengths, which will provide protective factors against risk and contribute to resilient outcomes. Educators are continually challenged to find successful ways to meet the needs of their students. One means is to support students by…

  9. Hedgehogs and Foxes at the Crossroads: Leadership and Diversity at the University of California

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    González, Cristina

    2011-01-01

    Following Clark Kerr's distinction between hedgehogs, or visionary leaders who know "one big thing," and foxes, or shrewd leaders who know "many things," this paper studies Kerr, an archetypical hedgehog, and David Gardner, a quintessential fox, as models for these two types of leaders. The paper also analyzes the hedgehog…

  10. What do K-12 students feel when dealing with technology and engineering issues? Gardner's multiple intelligence theory implications in technology lessons for motivating engineering vocations at Spanish Secondary School

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sánchez-Martín, Jesús; Álvarez-Gragera, García J.; Dávila-Acedo, M. Antonia; Mellado, Vicente

    2017-11-01

    The interest on engineering and scientific studies can be raised up even from the early years of academic instructional process. This vocation may be linked to emotions and aptitudes towards technological education. Particularly, students get in touch with these technological issues (namely STEM) during the Compulsory Secondary Education in Spain (12-16 years old).This work presents a preliminary evaluation of how relevant is Gardner's multiple intelligence theory (MIT) in the teaching-learning process within the Technology Lessons. In this sense, MIT was considered as an explanation variable of the emotional response within the different educational parts (so-called syllabus units, SU) in the Technology spanish curriculum. Different intelligence style (IS) will orient the student to a vision of the engineering and technology. This work tries to identify which relationships can be established between IS and specific technology and engineering learning. This research involved up to 135 students were subsequently tested about their predominant (IS) and on the emotions that arouse in them when working with each SU. The results were statistically significant and only those with a Logic-arithmetic or Environmental IS were not affected by the SU.Best teaching and learning practicesare required for encouraging further engineering studies.

  11. An efficient deterministic-probabilistic approach to modeling regional groundwater flow: 1. Theory

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Yen, Chung-Cheng; Guymon, Gary L.

    1990-01-01

    An efficient probabilistic model is developed and cascaded with a deterministic model for predicting water table elevations in regional aquifers. The objective is to quantify model uncertainty where precise estimates of water table elevations may be required. The probabilistic model is based on the two-point probability method which only requires prior knowledge of uncertain variables mean and coefficient of variation. The two-point estimate method is theoretically developed and compared with the Monte Carlo simulation method. The results of comparisons using hypothetical determinisitic problems indicate that the two-point estimate method is only generally valid for linear problems where the coefficients of variation of uncertain parameters (for example, storage coefficient and hydraulic conductivity) is small. The two-point estimate method may be applied to slightly nonlinear problems with good results, provided coefficients of variation are small. In such cases, the two-point estimate method is much more efficient than the Monte Carlo method provided the number of uncertain variables is less than eight.

  12. An Efficient Deterministic-Probabilistic Approach to Modeling Regional Groundwater Flow: 1. Theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yen, Chung-Cheng; Guymon, Gary L.

    1990-07-01

    An efficient probabilistic model is developed and cascaded with a deterministic model for predicting water table elevations in regional aquifers. The objective is to quantify model uncertainty where precise estimates of water table elevations may be required. The probabilistic model is based on the two-point probability method which only requires prior knowledge of uncertain variables mean and coefficient of variation. The two-point estimate method is theoretically developed and compared with the Monte Carlo simulation method. The results of comparisons using hypothetical determinisitic problems indicate that the two-point estimate method is only generally valid for linear problems where the coefficients of variation of uncertain parameters (for example, storage coefficient and hydraulic conductivity) is small. The two-point estimate method may be applied to slightly nonlinear problems with good results, provided coefficients of variation are small. In such cases, the two-point estimate method is much more efficient than the Monte Carlo method provided the number of uncertain variables is less than eight.

  13. STS-35 Commander Brand is suspended over JSC WETF pool during egress exercise

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1990-01-01

    STS-35 Commander Vance D. Brand is suspended via his parachute harness above the pool in JSC's Weightless Environment Training Facility (WETF) Bldg 29 during launch emergency egress exercises. Divers in the pool hold Brand's feet to steady him. In the background and on the poolside is Pilot Guy S. Gardner. Both Brand and Gardner are wearing launch and entry suits (LESs) and launch and entry helmets (LEHs).

  14. Astronauts Gardner and Allen during loading of Palapa B-2 in payload bay

    NASA Image and Video Library

    1984-11-12

    51A-41-058 (12 November 1984) --- Astronaut Joseph P. Allen IV appears to be lifting weights. Astronaut Dale A. Gardner holding on. Actually, Dr. Allen is the sole anchor for the top portion (and most of) the captured Palapa B-2 communications satellite during the Nov. 12 retrieval extravehicular activity (EVA) of the two mission specialists. This scene came near the end of the long-duration task. Gardner used a torque wrench to tighten clamps on an adapter used to secure the Palapa to its "parking place" in Discovery's cargo bay. Note the difference between the two stinger devices stowed on Challenger's port side (right side of frame). The one nearer the spacecraft's vertical stabilizer is spent, having been inserted by Allen earlier in the day to stabilize the communications satellite. The one nearer the camera awaited duty in two days when it would aid in the capture of the Westar VI satellite.

  15. Gardner's Syndrome: Report of a Family

    PubMed Central

    Koren, E.; Lazarovitch, A.; Baratz, M.; Loewenthal, M.; Solowiejczyk, M.

    1974-01-01

    Two cases of Gardner's syndrome in one family are presented. The father presented all three stigmas of the syndrome, while in the daughter no osseous manifestations were found. In the first patient, the diagnosis was made only after the second abdominal operation, when a mesenteric fibrous mass was seen. In the second case, the intestinal polyposis was clinically suspected, considering the hereditary aspects of this syndrome, and the episode of bloody diarrhea presented by this patient. Both patients were treated by subtotal colectomy with ileo-rectal anastomosis. Both of them presented fibrous tumors after the abdominal operation (the father after six years and the daughter after one year). The authors stress the importance of postoperative followup for the detection of fibrous masses that may appear due to the surgical stimulus. The literature on Gardner's syndrome is reviewed and summarized. ImagesFig. 1.Fig. 2.Fig. 3.Fig. 4. PMID:4842981

  16. Clustering coefficients of protein-protein interaction networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miller, Gerald A.; Shi, Yi Y.; Qian, Hong; Bomsztyk, Karol

    2007-05-01

    The properties of certain networks are determined by hidden variables that are not explicitly measured. The conditional probability (propagator) that a vertex with a given value of the hidden variable is connected to k other vertices determines all measurable properties. We study hidden variable models and find an averaging approximation that enables us to obtain a general analytical result for the propagator. Analytic results showing the validity of the approximation are obtained. We apply hidden variable models to protein-protein interaction networks (PINs) in which the hidden variable is the association free energy, determined by distributions that depend on biochemistry and evolution. We compute degree distributions as well as clustering coefficients of several PINs of different species; good agreement with measured data is obtained. For the human interactome two different parameter sets give the same degree distributions, but the computed clustering coefficients differ by a factor of about 2. This shows that degree distributions are not sufficient to determine the properties of PINs.

  17. Does spatial arrangement of 3D plants affect light transmission and extinction coefficient within maize crops?

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Row spacing effects on light interception and extinction coefficient have been inconsistent for maize (Zea mays L.) when calculated with field measurements. To avoid inconsistencies due to variable light conditions and variable leaf canopies, we used a model to describe three-dimensional (3D) shoot ...

  18. Statistical Analysis for Multisite Trials Using Instrumental Variables with Random Coefficients

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Raudenbush, Stephen W.; Reardon, Sean F.; Nomi, Takako

    2012-01-01

    Multisite trials can clarify the average impact of a new program and the heterogeneity of impacts across sites. Unfortunately, in many applications, compliance with treatment assignment is imperfect. For these applications, we propose an instrumental variable (IV) model with person-specific and site-specific random coefficients. Site-specific IV…

  19. The Use of Structure Coefficients to Address Multicollinearity in Sport and Exercise Science

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yeatts, Paul E.; Barton, Mitch; Henson, Robin K.; Martin, Scott B.

    2017-01-01

    A common practice in general linear model (GLM) analyses is to interpret regression coefficients (e.g., standardized ß weights) as indicators of variable importance. However, focusing solely on standardized beta weights may provide limited or erroneous information. For example, ß weights become increasingly unreliable when predictor variables are…

  20. The effect of learning style on academic student success

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stackhouse, Omega N.

    The problem addressed in this study was that little was known about the impact on student academic achievement, when grouped by learning style, in a multiple intelligence based science curriculum. The larger problem was that many students were frequently unengaged and, consequently, low achieving in their science courses. This quantitative study used an ex post facto research design to better understand the impact of student learning style on the academic success of students in a Multiple Intelligence Theory based course room. Gardner's work on Multiple Intelligence served as the conceptual framework for this study. The research question for this study asked if academic instruction that employs multiple intelligence theories has a relationship with students' academic achievement differently according to their learning style group (auditory, visual, and kinesthetic). Existing data from 85 students were placed into 1 of 3 groups: (a) Auditory, (b) Visual, or (c) Kinesthetic Learning Style) using existing data from a student inventory instrument. The independent variable was existing data from student inventories of learning style and the dependent variable was existing student scores from the Physical Science End of Course Test. Existing data were taken from students that were all taught with the same strategies in similar classroom environments. The Physical Science End of Course Test was developed with stringent measures to protect validity by the developer, McGraw-Hill. Cronbach's Alpha was conducted to determine the internal reliability coefficient of the student inventory. The impact for social change is that adding to the body of knowledge regarding student learning style and science curriculum provides valuable information for teachers, administrators, and school policy makers. This will allow teachers to better prepare to engage their students' and to prepare them for their place in society.

  1. Propagation of uncertainty in nasal spray in vitro performance models using Monte Carlo simulation: Part II. Error propagation during product performance modeling.

    PubMed

    Guo, Changning; Doub, William H; Kauffman, John F

    2010-08-01

    Monte Carlo simulations were applied to investigate the propagation of uncertainty in both input variables and response measurements on model prediction for nasal spray product performance design of experiment (DOE) models in the first part of this study, with an initial assumption that the models perfectly represent the relationship between input variables and the measured responses. In this article, we discard the initial assumption, and extended the Monte Carlo simulation study to examine the influence of both input variable variation and product performance measurement variation on the uncertainty in DOE model coefficients. The Monte Carlo simulations presented in this article illustrate the importance of careful error propagation during product performance modeling. Our results show that the error estimates based on Monte Carlo simulation result in smaller model coefficient standard deviations than those from regression methods. This suggests that the estimated standard deviations from regression may overestimate the uncertainties in the model coefficients. Monte Carlo simulations provide a simple software solution to understand the propagation of uncertainty in complex DOE models so that design space can be specified with statistically meaningful confidence levels. (c) 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc. and the American Pharmacists Association

  2. Long-term behaviour and cross-correlation water quality analysis of the River Elbe, Germany.

    PubMed

    Lehmann, A; Rode, M

    2001-06-01

    This study analyses weekly data samples from the river Elbe at Magdeburg between 1984 and 1996 to investigate the changes in metabolism and water quality in the river Elbe since the German reunification in 1990. Modelling water quality variables by autoregressive component models and ARIMA models reveals the improvement of water quality due to the reduction of waste water emissions since 1990. The models are used to determine the long-term and seasonal behaviour of important water quality variables. Organic and heavy metal pollution parameters showed a significant decrease since 1990, however, no significant change of chlorophyll-a as a measure for primary production could be found. A new procedure for testing the significance of a sample correlation coefficient is discussed, which is able to detect spurious sample correlation coefficients without making use of time-consuming prewhitening. The cross-correlation analysis is applied to hydrophysical, biological, and chemical water quality variables of the river Elbe since 1984. Special emphasis is laid on the detection of spurious sample correlation coefficients.

  3. [Habitat suitability index of larval Japanese Halfbeak (Hyporhamphus sajori) in Bohai Sea based on geographically weighted regression.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Yang; Zhang, Xue Qing; Bian, Xiao Dong

    2018-01-01

    To investigate the early supplementary processes of fishre sources in the Bohai Sea, the geographically weighted regression (GWR) was introduced to the habitat suitability index (HSI) model. The Bohai Sea larval Japanese Halfbeak HSI GWR model was established with four environmental variables, including sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface salinity (SSS), water depth (DEP), and chlorophyll a concentration (Chl a). Results of the simulation showed that the four variables had different performances in August 2015. SST and Chl a were global variables, and had little impacts on HSI, with the regression coefficients of -0.027 and 0.006, respectively. SSS and DEP were local variables, and had larger impacts on HSI, while the average values of absolute values of their regression coefficients were 0.075 and 0.129, respectively. In the central Bohai Sea, SSS showed a negative correlation with HSI, and the most negative correlation coefficient was -0.3. In contrast, SSS was correlated positively but weakly with HSI in the three bays of Bohai Sea, and the largest correlation coefficient was 0.1. In particular, DEP and HSI were negatively correlated in the entire Bohai Sea, while they were more negatively correlated in the three bays of Bohai than in the central Bohai Sea, and the most negative correlation coefficient was -0.16 in the three bays. The Poisson regression coefficient of the HSI GWR model was 0.705, consistent with field measurements. Therefore, it could provide a new method for the research on fish habitats in the future.

  4. An Investigation of the Sampling Distribution of the Congruence Coefficient.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Broadbooks, Wendy J.; Elmore, Patricia B.

    This study developed and investigated an empirical sampling distribution of the congruence coefficient. The effects of sample size, number of variables, and population value of the congruence coefficient on the sampling distribution of the congruence coefficient were examined. Sample data were generated on the basis of the common factor model and…

  5. Retrospective Cost Adaptive Control with Concurrent Closed-Loop Identification

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sobolic, Frantisek M.

    Retrospective cost adaptive control (RCAC) is a discrete-time direct adaptive control algorithm for stabilization, command following, and disturbance rejection. RCAC is known to work on systems given minimal modeling information which is the leading numerator coefficient and any nonminimum-phase (NMP) zeros of the plant transfer function. This information is normally needed a priori and is key in the development of the filter, also known as the target model, within the retrospective performance variable. A novel approach to alleviate the need for prior modeling of both the leading coefficient of the plant transfer function as well as any NMP zeros is developed. The extension to the RCAC algorithm is the use of concurrent optimization of both the target model and the controller coefficients. Concurrent optimization of the target model and controller coefficients is a quadratic optimization problem in the target model and controller coefficients separately. However, this optimization problem is not convex as a joint function of both variables, and therefore nonconvex optimization methods are needed. Finally, insights within RCAC that include intercalated injection between the controller numerator and the denominator, unveil the workings of RCAC fitting a specific closed-loop transfer function to the target model. We exploit this interpretation by investigating several closed-loop identification architectures in order to extract this information for use in the target model.

  6. Effect of planecta and ROSE™ on the frequency characteristics of blood pressure-transducer kits.

    PubMed

    Fujiwara, Shigeki; Kawakubo, Yoshifumi; Mori, Satoshi; Tachihara, Keiichi; Toyoguchi, Izumi; Yokoyama, Takeshi

    2015-12-01

    Pressure-transducer kits have frequency characteristics such as natural frequency and damping coefficient, which affect the monitoring accuracy. The aim of the present study was to investigate the effect of planecta ports and a damping device (ROSE™, Argon Medical Devices, TX, USA) on the frequency characteristics of pressure-transducer kits. The FloTrac sensor kit (Edwards Lifesciences, CA, USA) and the DTXplus transducer kit (Argon Medical Devices) were prepared with planecta ports, and their frequency characteristics were tested with or without ROSE™. The natural frequency and damping coefficient of each kit were obtained using frequency characteristics analysis software and evaluated by plotting them on the Gardner's chart. By inserting a planecta port, the natural frequency markedly decreased in both the FloTrac sensor kit (from 40 to 22 Hz) and the DTXplus transducer kit (from 35 to 22 Hz). In both kits with one planecta port, the damping coefficient markedly increased by insertion of ROSE™ from 0.2 to 0.5, optimising frequency characteristics. In both kits with two planecta ports, however, the natural frequency decreased from 22 to 12 Hz. The damping coefficient increased from 0.2 to 0.8 by insertion of ROSE™; however, optimisation was not achieved even by ROSE™ insertion. Planecta ports decrease the natural frequency of the kit. ROSE™ is useful to optimise the frequency characteristics in the kits without or with one planecta port. However, optimisation is difficult with two or more planecta ports, even with the ROSE™ device.

  7. Motivation and Gender Differences in Learning Spanish as a Foreign Language in a Malaysian Technical University

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Khong, Hou-Keat; Hassan, Nurul Husna; Ramli, Norasrani

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this study is to investigate student motivation and gender differences in learning Spanish as a foreign language in the Malaysian context. Method: Student motivation was measured by means of a self-report questionnaire based on Gardner's social psychological model. The questionnaire contained both close-ended and open-ended…

  8. Application of an Automated Fish Biomonitoring System at Old O-Field for Continuous Acute Toxicity Effluent Monitoring

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1996-05-01

    Tommy R. Shedd, Henry S. Gardner , Robert A. Finch, and Robert C. Bishoff U.S. Army Biomedical Research and Development Laboratory Fort Detrick...Zeigler Bros., Inc., Gardners , PA) plus frozen brine shrimp (Living World, Virginia Pet Supply, Fairfax VA). Fish were not fed during the 2-week...Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC. 3. Diamond , J.M. and T.R.Shedd. 1995. Standard Guide for Ventilatory Behavioral Toxicology Testing

  9. 2012 Safety and Health Day

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2012-08-21

    Employees at NASA's John C. Stennis Space Center participated in 2012 Safety and Health Day activities Aug. 21. Various organizations provided interactive exhibits and information on a range of safety and health issues. During large group presentations, Brad Gardner also spoke about losing part of his right arm to an industrial accident in 2003 and what it has taught him about preventing accidents. Gardner served 22 years in the U.S. Air Force and has a background in safety management.

  10. Modelling the co-evolution of indirect genetic effects and inherited variability.

    PubMed

    Marjanovic, Jovana; Mulder, Han A; Rönnegård, Lars; Bijma, Piter

    2018-03-28

    When individuals interact, their phenotypes may be affected not only by their own genes but also by genes in their social partners. This phenomenon is known as Indirect Genetic Effects (IGEs). In aquaculture species and some plants, however, competition not only affects trait levels of individuals, but also inflates variability of trait values among individuals. In the field of quantitative genetics, the variability of trait values has been studied as a quantitative trait in itself, and is often referred to as inherited variability. Such studies, however, consider only the genetic effect of the focal individual on trait variability and do not make a connection to competition. Although the observed phenotypic relationship between competition and variability suggests an underlying genetic relationship, the current quantitative genetic models of IGE and inherited variability do not allow for such a relationship. The lack of quantitative genetic models that connect IGEs to inherited variability limits our understanding of the potential of variability to respond to selection, both in nature and agriculture. Models of trait levels, for example, show that IGEs may considerably change heritable variation in trait values. Currently, we lack the tools to investigate whether this result extends to variability of trait values. Here we present a model that integrates IGEs and inherited variability. In this model, the target phenotype, say growth rate, is a function of the genetic and environmental effects of the focal individual and of the difference in trait value between the social partner and the focal individual, multiplied by a regression coefficient. The regression coefficient is a genetic trait, which is a measure of cooperation; a negative value indicates competition, a positive value cooperation, and an increasing value due to selection indicates the evolution of cooperation. In contrast to the existing quantitative genetic models, our model allows for co-evolution of IGEs and variability, as the regression coefficient can respond to selection. Our simulations show that the model results in increased variability of body weight with increasing competition. When competition decreases, i.e., cooperation evolves, variability becomes significantly smaller. Hence, our model facilitates quantitative genetic studies on the relationship between IGEs and inherited variability. Moreover, our findings suggest that we may have been overlooking an entire level of genetic variation in variability, the one due to IGEs.

  11. Individual-tree probability of survival model for the Northeastern United States

    Treesearch

    Richard M. Teck; Donald E. Hilt

    1990-01-01

    Describes a distance-independent individual-free probability of survival model for the Northeastern United States. Survival is predicted using a sixparameter logistic function with species-specific coefficients. Coefficients are presented for 28 species groups. The model accounts for variability in annual survival due to species, tree size, site quality, and the tree...

  12. Overcoming multicollinearity in multiple regression using correlation coefficient

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zainodin, H. J.; Yap, S. J.

    2013-09-01

    Multicollinearity happens when there are high correlations among independent variables. In this case, it would be difficult to distinguish between the contributions of these independent variables to that of the dependent variable as they may compete to explain much of the similar variance. Besides, the problem of multicollinearity also violates the assumption of multiple regression: that there is no collinearity among the possible independent variables. Thus, an alternative approach is introduced in overcoming the multicollinearity problem in achieving a well represented model eventually. This approach is accomplished by removing the multicollinearity source variables on the basis of the correlation coefficient values based on full correlation matrix. Using the full correlation matrix can facilitate the implementation of Excel function in removing the multicollinearity source variables. It is found that this procedure is easier and time-saving especially when dealing with greater number of independent variables in a model and a large number of all possible models. Hence, in this paper detailed insight of the procedure is shown, compared and implemented.

  13. Dynamics analysis of SIR epidemic model with correlation coefficients and clustering coefficient in networks.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Juping; Yang, Chan; Jin, Zhen; Li, Jia

    2018-07-14

    In this paper, the correlation coefficients between nodes in states are used as dynamic variables, and we construct SIR epidemic dynamic models with correlation coefficients by using the pair approximation method in static networks and dynamic networks, respectively. Considering the clustering coefficient of the network, we analytically investigate the existence and the local asymptotic stability of each equilibrium of these models and derive threshold values for the prevalence of diseases. Additionally, we obtain two equivalent epidemic thresholds in dynamic networks, which are compared with the results of the mean field equations. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. A novel mutation of adenomatous polyposis coli (APC) gene results in the formation of supernumerary teeth.

    PubMed

    Yu, Fang; Cai, Wenping; Jiang, Beizhan; Xu, Laijun; Liu, Shangfeng; Zhao, Shouliang

    2018-01-01

    Supernumerary teeth are teeth that are present in addition to normal teeth. Although several hypotheses and some molecular signalling pathways explain the formation of supernumerary teeth, but their exact disease pathogenesis is unknown. To study the molecular mechanisms of supernumerary tooth-related syndrome (Gardner syndrome), a deeper understanding of the aetiology of supernumerary teeth and the associated syndrome is needed, with the goal of inhibiting disease inheritance via prenatal diagnosis. We recruited a Chinese family with Gardner syndrome. Haematoxylin and eosin staining of supernumerary teeth and colonic polyp lesion biopsies revealed that these patients exhibited significant pathological characteristics. APC gene mutations were detected by PCR and direct sequencing. We revealed the pathological pathway involved in human supernumerary tooth development and the mouse tooth germ development expression profile by RNA sequencing (RNA-seq). Sequencing analysis revealed that an APC gene mutation in exon 15, namely 4292-4293-Del GA, caused Gardner syndrome in this family. This mutation not only initiated the various manifestations typical of Gardner syndrome but also resulted in odontoma and supernumerary teeth in this case. Furthermore, RNA-seq analysis of human supernumerary teeth suggests that the APC gene is the key gene involved in the development of supernumerary teeth in humans. The mouse tooth germ development expression profile shows that the APC gene plays an important role in tooth germ development. We identified a new mutation in the APC gene that results in supernumerary teeth in association with Gardner syndrome. This information may shed light on the molecular pathogenesis of supernumerary teeth. Gene-based diagnosis and gene therapy for supernumerary teeth may become available in the future, and our study provides a high-resolution reference for treating other syndromes associated with supernumerary teeth. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Cellular and Molecular Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd and Foundation for Cellular and Molecular Medicine.

  15. Ridge: a computer program for calculating ridge regression estimates

    Treesearch

    Donald E. Hilt; Donald W. Seegrist

    1977-01-01

    Least-squares coefficients for multiple-regression models may be unstable when the independent variables are highly correlated. Ridge regression is a biased estimation procedure that produces stable estimates of the coefficients. Ridge regression is discussed, and a computer program for calculating the ridge coefficients is presented.

  16. Home-Based Diagnosis and Management of Sleep-Related Breathing Disorders in Spinal Cord Injury

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2016-02-01

    2011;105:143-50. 11. Miller MR, Hankinson J, Brusasco V, et al. Standardisation of spirometry. Eur Respir J 2005;26:319-38. 12. Crapo RO, Morris AH, Gardner...profile in persons with chronic motor complete spinal cord injury. J Spinal Cord Med 2010;33:6-15. 22. Crapo RO, Morris AH, Gardner RM. Reference...blood pressure was checked and found to be over 140 or less than 80 systolic SUNDAY MONDAY TUESDAY WEDNESDAY FRIDAY THURSDAY SATURDAY LUNG LUNG LUNG

  17. In Situ/On-Site Biodegradation of Refined Oils and Fuels (A Technology Review). Volume 2. Appendix A. Supplementary Text.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1992-06-01

    Dobbs, 1980) g - (Ohneck and Gardner, 1982) h - (Quince and Gardner, 1982) i a (Pritchard, Van Veld, and Cooper, 1981) j (Ehrlich, Schroeder, and Martin...1964) h - (Cerniglia and Gibson, 1977) i - (Ahearn, Meyers, and Standard, 1971) j - (Jamison, Raymond, and Hudson, 1975) k - (Stetzenbach and Sinclair...and Crow 1981) g - (Gibson and Mahadevan, 1975) h - (Gibson, Koch, and Kallio, 1968) i - (Zajic, 1964) j - (Cerniglia, Hebert, Szaniszlo, and Gibson

  18. HYPO: A Precedent-Based Legal Reasoner

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1987-11-01

    identify legal issues in the analysis of law school exam- ination fact patterns involving the contracts law of offer and acceptance. The program...primarily used i’-then rules and an ATN to represent its legal knowledge of contract law . It used heuristics for distinguishing "hard" and "easy" legal...similar to Gardner’s. Also, the use of rules in Meldmdn (to define the elements of a claim) and Gardner (to define ingredients of contract law ) are similar

  19. Lameness detection based on multivariate continuous sensing of milk yield, rumination, and neck activity.

    PubMed

    Van Hertem, T; Maltz, E; Antler, A; Romanini, C E B; Viazzi, S; Bahr, C; Schlageter-Tello, A; Lokhorst, C; Berckmans, D; Halachmi, I

    2013-07-01

    The objective of this study was to develop and validate a mathematical model to detect clinical lameness based on existing sensor data that relate to the behavior and performance of cows in a commercial dairy farm. Identification of lame (44) and not lame (74) cows in the database was done based on the farm's daily herd health reports. All cows were equipped with a behavior sensor that measured neck activity and ruminating time. The cow's performance was measured with a milk yield meter in the milking parlor. In total, 38 model input variables were constructed from the sensor data comprising absolute values, relative values, daily standard deviations, slope coefficients, daytime and nighttime periods, variables related to individual temperament, and milk session-related variables. A lame group, cows recognized and treated for lameness, to not lame group comparison of daily data was done. Correlations between the dichotomous output variable (lame or not lame) and the model input variables were made. The highest correlation coefficient was obtained for the milk yield variable (rMY=0.45). In addition, a logistic regression model was developed based on the 7 highest correlated model input variables (the daily milk yield 4d before diagnosis; the slope coefficient of the daily milk yield 4d before diagnosis; the nighttime to daytime neck activity ratio 6d before diagnosis; the milk yield week difference ratio 4d before diagnosis; the milk yield week difference 4d before diagnosis; the neck activity level during the daytime 7d before diagnosis; the ruminating time during nighttime 6d before diagnosis). After a 10-fold cross-validation, the model obtained a sensitivity of 0.89 and a specificity of 0.85, with a correct classification rate of 0.86 when based on the averaged 10-fold model coefficients. This study demonstrates that existing farm data initially used for other purposes, such as heat detection, can be exploited for the automated detection of clinically lame animals on a daily basis as well. Copyright © 2013 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. N-fold Darboux transformation and double-Wronskian-typed solitonic structures for a variable-coefficient modified Kortweg-de Vries equation

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Wang, Lei, E-mail: wanglei2239@126.com; Gao, Yi-Tian; State Key Laboratory of Software Development Environment, Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Beijing 100191

    2012-08-15

    Under investigation in this paper is a variable-coefficient modified Kortweg-de Vries (vc-mKdV) model describing certain situations from the fluid mechanics, ocean dynamics and plasma physics. N-fold Darboux transformation (DT) of a variable-coefficient Ablowitz-Kaup-Newell-Segur spectral problem is constructed via a gauge transformation. Multi-solitonic solutions in terms of the double Wronskian for the vc-mKdV model are derived by the reduction of the N-fold DT. Three types of the solitonic interactions are discussed through figures: (1) Overtaking collision; (2) Head-on collision; (3) Parallel solitons. Nonlinear, dispersive and dissipative terms have the effects on the velocities of the solitonic waves while the amplitudes ofmore » the waves depend on the perturbation term. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer N-fold DT is firstly applied to a vc-AKNS spectral problem. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Seeking a double Wronskian solution is changed into solving two systems. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Effects of the variable coefficients on the multi-solitonic waves are discussed in detail. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer This work solves the problem from Yi Zhang [Ann. Phys. 323 (2008) 3059].« less

  1. How to compare cross-lagged associations in a multilevel autoregressive model.

    PubMed

    Schuurman, Noémi K; Ferrer, Emilio; de Boer-Sonnenschein, Mieke; Hamaker, Ellen L

    2016-06-01

    By modeling variables over time it is possible to investigate the Granger-causal cross-lagged associations between variables. By comparing the standardized cross-lagged coefficients, the relative strength of these associations can be evaluated in order to determine important driving forces in the dynamic system. The aim of this study was twofold: first, to illustrate the added value of a multilevel multivariate autoregressive modeling approach for investigating these associations over more traditional techniques; and second, to discuss how the coefficients of the multilevel autoregressive model should be standardized for comparing the strength of the cross-lagged associations. The hierarchical structure of multilevel multivariate autoregressive models complicates standardization, because subject-based statistics or group-based statistics can be used to standardize the coefficients, and each method may result in different conclusions. We argue that in order to make a meaningful comparison of the strength of the cross-lagged associations, the coefficients should be standardized within persons. We further illustrate the bivariate multilevel autoregressive model and the standardization of the coefficients, and we show that disregarding individual differences in dynamics can prove misleading, by means of an empirical example on experienced competence and exhaustion in persons diagnosed with burnout. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  2. Swift Monitoring of NGC 4151: Evidence for a Second X-Ray/UV Reprocessing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Edelson, R.; Gelbord, J.; Cackett, E.; Connolly, S.; Done, C.; Fausnaugh, M.; Gardner, E.; Gehrels, N.; Goad, M.; Horne, K.; McHardy, I.; Peterson, B. M.; Vaughan, S.; Vestergaard, M.; Breeveld, A.; Barth, A. J.; Bentz, M.; Bottorff, M.; Brandt, W. N.; Crawford, S. M.; Dalla Bontà, E.; Emmanoulopoulos, D.; Evans, P.; Figuera Jaimes, R.; Filippenko, A. V.; Ferland, G.; Grupe, D.; Joner, M.; Kennea, J.; Korista, K. T.; Krimm, H. A.; Kriss, G.; Leonard, D. C.; Mathur, S.; Netzer, H.; Nousek, J.; Page, K.; Romero-Colmenero, E.; Siegel, M.; Starkey, D. A.; Treu, T.; Vogler, H. A.; Winkler, H.; Zheng, W.

    2017-05-01

    Swift monitoring of NGC 4151 with an ˜6 hr sampling over a total of 69 days in early 2016 is used to construct light curves covering five bands in the X-rays (0.3-50 keV) and six in the ultraviolet (UV)/optical (1900-5500 Å). The three hardest X-ray bands (>2.5 keV) are all strongly correlated with no measurable interband lag, while the two softer bands show lower variability and weaker correlations. The UV/optical bands are significantly correlated with the X-rays, lagging ˜3-4 days behind the hard X-rays. The variability within the UV/optical bands is also strongly correlated, with the UV appearing to lead the optical by ˜0.5-1 days. This combination of ≳3 day lags between the X-rays and UV and ≲1 day lags within the UV/optical appears to rule out the “lamp-post” reprocessing model in which a hot, X-ray emitting corona directly illuminates the accretion disk, which then reprocesses the energy in the UV/optical. Instead, these results appear consistent with the Gardner & Done picture in which two separate reprocessings occur: first, emission from the corona illuminates an extreme-UV-emitting toroidal component that shields the disk from the corona; this then heats the extreme-UV component, which illuminates the disk and drives its variability.

  3. Understanding global fire dynamics by classifying and comparing spatial models of vegetation and fire

    Treesearch

    Robert E. Keane; Geoffrey J. Cary; Ian D. Davies; Michael D. Flannigan; Robert H. Gardner; Sandra Lavorel; James M. Lenihan; Chao Li; T. Scott Rupp

    2007-01-01

    Wildland fire is a major disturbance in most ecosystems worldwide (Crutzen and Goldammer 1993). The interaction of fire with climate and vegetation over long time spans, often referred to as the fire regime (Agee 1993; Clark 1993; Swetnam and Baisan 1996; Swetnam 1997), has major effects on dominant vegetation, ecosystem carbon budget, and biodiversity (Gardner et aL...

  4. Writing through Modeling: Using Various Scholarship Enhancement Programs and Activities To Build Writing Interest and Skill.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brown, Les M.

    This paper focuses on the efforts at Gardner-Webb University in North Carolina to extend the writing efforts of a writing across the curriculum (WAC) retreat into a greater matrix of scholarly activity, not only in the classroom but outside as well. Noting that the initial idea was that an intensive year of emphasizing scholastic activity could…

  5. Large deviation approach to the generalized random energy model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dorlas, T. C.; Dukes, W. M. B.

    2002-05-01

    The generalized random energy model is a generalization of the random energy model introduced by Derrida to mimic the ultrametric structure of the Parisi solution of the Sherrington-Kirkpatrick model of a spin glass. It was solved exactly in two special cases by Derrida and Gardner. A complete solution for the thermodynamics in the general case was given by Capocaccia et al. Here we use large deviation theory to analyse the model in a very straightforward way. We also show that the variational expression for the free energy can be evaluated easily using the Cauchy-Schwarz inequality.

  6. Model averaging and muddled multimodel inferences.

    PubMed

    Cade, Brian S

    2015-09-01

    Three flawed practices associated with model averaging coefficients for predictor variables in regression models commonly occur when making multimodel inferences in analyses of ecological data. Model-averaged regression coefficients based on Akaike information criterion (AIC) weights have been recommended for addressing model uncertainty but they are not valid, interpretable estimates of partial effects for individual predictors when there is multicollinearity among the predictor variables. Multicollinearity implies that the scaling of units in the denominators of the regression coefficients may change across models such that neither the parameters nor their estimates have common scales, therefore averaging them makes no sense. The associated sums of AIC model weights recommended to assess relative importance of individual predictors are really a measure of relative importance of models, with little information about contributions by individual predictors compared to other measures of relative importance based on effects size or variance reduction. Sometimes the model-averaged regression coefficients for predictor variables are incorrectly used to make model-averaged predictions of the response variable when the models are not linear in the parameters. I demonstrate the issues with the first two practices using the college grade point average example extensively analyzed by Burnham and Anderson. I show how partial standard deviations of the predictor variables can be used to detect changing scales of their estimates with multicollinearity. Standardizing estimates based on partial standard deviations for their variables can be used to make the scaling of the estimates commensurate across models, a necessary but not sufficient condition for model averaging of the estimates to be sensible. A unimodal distribution of estimates and valid interpretation of individual parameters are additional requisite conditions. The standardized estimates or equivalently the t statistics on unstandardized estimates also can be used to provide more informative measures of relative importance than sums of AIC weights. Finally, I illustrate how seriously compromised statistical interpretations and predictions can be for all three of these flawed practices by critiquing their use in a recent species distribution modeling technique developed for predicting Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) distribution in Colorado, USA. These model averaging issues are common in other ecological literature and ought to be discontinued if we are to make effective scientific contributions to ecological knowledge and conservation of natural resources.

  7. Model averaging and muddled multimodel inferences

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cade, Brian S.

    2015-01-01

    Three flawed practices associated with model averaging coefficients for predictor variables in regression models commonly occur when making multimodel inferences in analyses of ecological data. Model-averaged regression coefficients based on Akaike information criterion (AIC) weights have been recommended for addressing model uncertainty but they are not valid, interpretable estimates of partial effects for individual predictors when there is multicollinearity among the predictor variables. Multicollinearity implies that the scaling of units in the denominators of the regression coefficients may change across models such that neither the parameters nor their estimates have common scales, therefore averaging them makes no sense. The associated sums of AIC model weights recommended to assess relative importance of individual predictors are really a measure of relative importance of models, with little information about contributions by individual predictors compared to other measures of relative importance based on effects size or variance reduction. Sometimes the model-averaged regression coefficients for predictor variables are incorrectly used to make model-averaged predictions of the response variable when the models are not linear in the parameters. I demonstrate the issues with the first two practices using the college grade point average example extensively analyzed by Burnham and Anderson. I show how partial standard deviations of the predictor variables can be used to detect changing scales of their estimates with multicollinearity. Standardizing estimates based on partial standard deviations for their variables can be used to make the scaling of the estimates commensurate across models, a necessary but not sufficient condition for model averaging of the estimates to be sensible. A unimodal distribution of estimates and valid interpretation of individual parameters are additional requisite conditions. The standardized estimates or equivalently the tstatistics on unstandardized estimates also can be used to provide more informative measures of relative importance than sums of AIC weights. Finally, I illustrate how seriously compromised statistical interpretations and predictions can be for all three of these flawed practices by critiquing their use in a recent species distribution modeling technique developed for predicting Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) distribution in Colorado, USA. These model averaging issues are common in other ecological literature and ought to be discontinued if we are to make effective scientific contributions to ecological knowledge and conservation of natural resources.

  8. A disease difficult to diagnose: Gardner-Diamond syndrome accompanied by platelet dysfunction

    PubMed Central

    Karakaş, Zeynep; Karaman, Serap; Avcı, Burcu; Ünüvar, Ayşegül; Öztürk, Gülyüz; Anak, Sema; Devecioğlu, Ömer

    2014-01-01

    Gardner Diamond syndrome is a rare condition characterized with painful ecchymoses in different parts of the body and cutaneous and mucosal hemorrhages. The etiology is not known fully and psychogenic factors are thought to be involved. Cutaneous lesions and hemorrhages develop mostly following emotional stress and rarely minor traumas and may recur. Although the extremities are involved with the highest rate, the lesions may be observed in any part of the body. Hemostatic tests are generally normal. The majority of the subjects is composed of young women. It is observed more rarely in men and children. In this article, a patient who presented with recurring painful echymoses and bleeding disorder and diagnosed with Gardner Diamond syndrome by intracutaneous injection of autologous blood was presented to emphasize that this syndrome is observed rarely in the childhood and should be considered not only in the differential diagnosis of cutaneous lesions, but also in the differential diagnosis of various system hemorrhages. PMID:26078671

  9. Suppressor Variables: The Difference between "Is" versus "Acting As"

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ludlow, Larry; Klein, Kelsey

    2014-01-01

    Correlated predictors in regression models are a fact of life in applied social science research. The extent to which they are correlated will influence the estimates and statistics associated with the other variables they are modeled along with. These effects, for example, may include enhanced regression coefficients for the other variables--a…

  10. Causal Models with Unmeasured Variables: An Introduction to LISREL.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wolfle, Lee M.

    Whenever one uses ordinary least squares regression, one is making an implicit assumption that all of the independent variables have been measured without error. Such an assumption is obviously unrealistic for most social data. One approach for estimating such regression models is to measure implied coefficients between latent variables for which…

  11. Analysis of eccentric annular incompressible seals. II - Effects of eccentricity on rotordynamic coefficients

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nelson, C. C.; Nguyen, D. T.

    1987-01-01

    A new analysis procedure has been presented which solves for the flow variables of an annular pressure seal in which the rotor has a large static displacement (eccentricity) from the centered position. The present paper incorporates the solutions to investigate the effect of eccentricity on the rotordynamic coefficients. The analysis begins with a set of governing equations based on a turbulent bulk-flow model and Moody's friction factor equation. Perturbations of the flow variables yields a set of zeroth- and first-order equations. After integration of the zeroth-order equations, the resulting zeroth-order flow variables are used as input in the solution of the first-order equations. Further integration of the first order pressures yields the eccentric rotordynamic coefficients. The results from this procedure compare well with available experimental and theoretical data, with accuracy just as good or slightly better than the predictions based on a finite-element model.

  12. Higher-order Peregrine combs and Peregrine walls for the variable-coefficient Lenells-Fokas equation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Zi-Qi; Wang, Xin; Wang, Lei; Sun, Wen-Rong; Qi, Feng-Hua

    2017-02-01

    In this paper, we study the variable-coefficient Lenells-Fokas (LF) model. Under large periodic modulations in the variable coefficients of the LF model, the generalized Akhmediev breathers develop into the breather multiple births (BMBs) from which we obtain the Peregrine combs (PCs). The PCs can be considered as the limiting case of the BMBs and be transformed into the Peregrine walls (PWs) with a specific amplitude of periodic modulation. We further investigate the spatiotemporal characteristics of the PCs and PWs analytically. Based on the second-order breather and rogue-wave solutions, we derive the corresponding higher-order structures (higher-order PCs and PWs) under proper periodic modulations. What is particularly noteworthy is that the second-order PC can be converted into the Peregrine pyramid which exhibits the higher amplitude and thickness. Our results could be helpful for the design of experiments in the optical fiber communications.

  13. A novel approach to selecting and weighting nutrients for nutrient profiling of foods and diets.

    PubMed

    Arsenault, Joanne E; Fulgoni, Victor L; Hersey, James C; Muth, Mary K

    2012-12-01

    Nutrient profiling of foods is the science of ranking or classifying foods based on their nutrient composition. Most profiling systems use similar weighting factors across nutrients due to lack of scientific evidence to assign levels of importance to nutrients. Our aim was to use a statistical approach to determine the nutrients that best explain variation in Healthy Eating Index (HEI) scores and to obtain β-coefficients for the nutrients for use as weighting factors for a nutrient-profiling algorithm. We used a cross-sectional analysis of nutrient intakes and HEI scores. Our subjects included 16,587 individuals from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2005-2008 who were 2 years of age or older and not pregnant. Our main outcome measure was variation (R(2)) in HEI scores. Linear regression analyses were conducted with HEI scores as the dependent variable and all possible combinations of 16 nutrients of interest as independent variables, with covariates age, sex, and ethnicity. The analyses identified the best 1-nutrient variable model (with the highest R(2)), the best 2-nutrient variable model, and up to the best 16-nutrient variable model. The model with 8 nutrients explained 65% of the variance in HEI scores, similar to the models with 9 to 16 nutrients, but substantially higher than previous algorithms reported in the literature. The model contained five nutrients with positive β-coefficients (ie, protein, fiber, calcium, unsaturated fat, and vitamin C) and three nutrients with negative coefficients (ie, saturated fat, sodium, and added sugar). β-coefficients from the model were used as weighting factors to create an algorithm that generated a weighted nutrient density score representing the overall nutritional quality of a food. The weighted nutrient density score can be easily calculated and is useful for describing the overall nutrient quality of both foods and diets. Copyright © 2012 Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Description of new dry granular materials of variable cohesion and friction coefficient: Implications for laboratory modeling of the brittle crust

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abdelmalak, M. M.; Bulois, C.; Mourgues, R.; Galland, O.; Legland, J.-B.; Gruber, C.

    2016-08-01

    Cohesion and friction coefficient are fundamental parameters for scaling brittle deformation in laboratory models of geological processes. However, they are commonly not experimental variable, whereas (1) rocks range from cohesion-less to strongly cohesive and from low friction to high friction and (2) strata exhibit substantial cohesion and friction contrasts. This brittle paradox implies that the effects of brittle properties on processes involving brittle deformation cannot be tested in laboratory models. Solving this paradox requires the use of dry granular materials of tunable and controllable brittle properties. In this paper, we describe dry mixtures of fine-grained cohesive, high friction silica powder (SP) and low-cohesion, low friction glass microspheres (GM) that fulfill this requirement. We systematically estimated the cohesions and friction coefficients of mixtures of variable proportions using two independent methods: (1) a classic Hubbert-type shear box to determine the extrapolated cohesion (C) and friction coefficient (μ), and (2) direct measurements of the tensile strength (T0) and the height (H) of open fractures to calculate the true cohesion (C0). The measured values of cohesion increase from 100 Pa for pure GM to 600 Pa for pure SP, with a sub-linear trend of the cohesion with the mixture GM content. The two independent cohesion measurement methods, from shear tests and tension/extensional tests, yield very similar results of extrapolated cohesion (C) and show that both are robust and can be used independently. The measured values of friction coefficients increase from 0.5 for pure GM to 1.05 for pure SP. The use of these granular material mixtures now allows testing (1) the effects of cohesion and friction coefficient in homogeneous laboratory models and (2) testing the effect of brittle layering on brittle deformation, as demonstrated by preliminary experiments. Therefore, the brittle properties become, at last, experimental variables.

  15. Hybrid robust model based on an improved functional link neural network integrating with partial least square (IFLNN-PLS) and its application to predicting key process variables.

    PubMed

    He, Yan-Lin; Xu, Yuan; Geng, Zhi-Qiang; Zhu, Qun-Xiong

    2016-03-01

    In this paper, a hybrid robust model based on an improved functional link neural network integrating with partial least square (IFLNN-PLS) is proposed. Firstly, an improved functional link neural network with small norm of expanded weights and high input-output correlation (SNEWHIOC-FLNN) was proposed for enhancing the generalization performance of FLNN. Unlike the traditional FLNN, the expanded variables of the original inputs are not directly used as the inputs in the proposed SNEWHIOC-FLNN model. The original inputs are attached to some small norm of expanded weights. As a result, the correlation coefficient between some of the expanded variables and the outputs is enhanced. The larger the correlation coefficient is, the more relevant the expanded variables tend to be. In the end, the expanded variables with larger correlation coefficient are selected as the inputs to improve the performance of the traditional FLNN. In order to test the proposed SNEWHIOC-FLNN model, three UCI (University of California, Irvine) regression datasets named Housing, Concrete Compressive Strength (CCS), and Yacht Hydro Dynamics (YHD) are selected. Then a hybrid model based on the improved FLNN integrating with partial least square (IFLNN-PLS) was built. In IFLNN-PLS model, the connection weights are calculated using the partial least square method but not the error back propagation algorithm. Lastly, IFLNN-PLS was developed as an intelligent measurement model for accurately predicting the key variables in the Purified Terephthalic Acid (PTA) process and the High Density Polyethylene (HDPE) process. Simulation results illustrated that the IFLNN-PLS could significant improve the prediction performance. Copyright © 2015 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Behavioral Scale Reliability and Measurement Invariance Evaluation Using Latent Variable Modeling

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Raykov, Tenko

    2004-01-01

    A latent variable modeling approach to reliability and measurement invariance evaluation for multiple-component measuring instruments is outlined. An initial discussion deals with the limitations of coefficient alpha, a frequently used index of composite reliability. A widely and readily applicable structural modeling framework is next described…

  17. New type side weir discharge coefficient simulation using three novel hybrid adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bonakdari, Hossein; Zaji, Amir Hossein

    2018-03-01

    In many hydraulic structures, side weirs have a critical role. Accurately predicting the discharge coefficient is one of the most important stages in the side weir design process. In the present paper, a new high efficient side weir is investigated. To simulate the discharge coefficient of these side weirs, three novel soft computing methods are used. The process includes modeling the discharge coefficient with the hybrid Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Interface System (ANFIS) and three optimization algorithms, namely Differential Evaluation (ANFIS-DE), Genetic Algorithm (ANFIS-GA) and Particle Swarm Optimization (ANFIS-PSO). In addition, sensitivity analysis is done to find the most efficient input variables for modeling the discharge coefficient of these types of side weirs. According to the results, the ANFIS method has higher performance when using simpler input variables. In addition, the ANFIS-DE with RMSE of 0.077 has higher performance than the ANFIS-GA and ANFIS-PSO methods with RMSE of 0.079 and 0.096, respectively.

  18. A Long-Term Psychological Observation in an Adolescent Affected with Gardner Diamond Syndrome

    PubMed Central

    Bizzi, Fabiola; Sciarretta, Lucia; D’Alessandro, Matteo; Picco, Paolo

    2016-01-01

    Gardner-Diamond syndrome (GDS) is an uncommon disease clinically characterized by a wide spectrum of psycho-emotive symptoms associated with painful ecchymoses/purpuric lesions and positivity of auto-erythrocyte sensitization skin test. Herein, a perspective clinical and psychological observation of an adolescent GDS is firstly reported focusing on her psychological features long-term monitored for a 1-year period. The administration of a standardized tools battery allowed us to define psychological features of the young patient over time and to monitored clinical course and response to treatment. PMID:27011410

  19. Gardner-Diamond syndrome: Difficulties in the management of patients with unexplained medical symptoms

    PubMed Central

    Meeder, Robert; Bannister, Susan

    2006-01-01

    The case of an adolescent girl who presented with unexplained bruising is reported. Subsequent investigations failed to elucidate an organic etiology. The diagnosis of Gardner-Diamond syndrome – a syndrome of predictable bruising preceded by pain and warmth at the bruise site, often associated with physical or psychosocial stress – was made. In the present report, the authors use their experience with this rare syndrome to highlight some important ethical and practical considerations with regard to investigation, treatment and communication in illnesses with unexplained medical symptoms. PMID:19030312

  20. Psychogenic Purpura (Gardner-Diamond Syndrome)

    PubMed Central

    Bhattacharya, Gaurav

    2015-01-01

    Psychogenic purpura, also known as Gardner-Diamond syndrome or autoerythrocyte sensitization syndrome, is a rare condition characterized by spontaneous development of painful edematous skin lesions progressing to ecchymosis over the next 24 hours. Severe stress and emotional trauma always precede the skin lesions. The condition is most commonly seen in women, but isolated cases have been reported in adolescents and in males. Psychodermatologic evaluation and dermatology and psychiatry liaison have been successful in the treatment of these patients. This report provides an overview of psychogenic purpura and presents the case of a 15-year-old girl. PMID:26137346

  1. National Program for Inspection of Non-Federal Dams. Lake Gardner Dam (MA 00152), Merrimack River Basin, Amesbury, Massachusetts. Phase I Inspection Report.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1978-09-01

    embankmenr approximately 750 ft. long and 25 ft. high and an ungrated granite block spillway about 73. ft. wide and 16 ft. high. A 24-in. reservoir...the Location Map, page viii. B. Dam and Appurtenances. Lake Gardner Dam is approxi- mately 1000 ft. long, consisting mainly of an ungated granite block...is a broad crested granite masonry structure, about 16 ft. high and 72. 6 ft. wide. The nine courses of stone ex- posed on the downstream face of the

  2. Quantitative models for predicting adsorption of oxytetracycline, ciprofloxacin and sulfamerazine to swine manures with contrasting properties.

    PubMed

    Cheng, Dengmiao; Feng, Yao; Liu, Yuanwang; Li, Jinpeng; Xue, Jianming; Li, Zhaojun

    2018-09-01

    Understanding antibiotic adsorption in livestock manures is crucial to assess the fate and risk of antibiotics in the environment. In this study, three quantitative models developed with swine manure-water distribution coefficients (LgK d ) for oxytetracycline (OTC), ciprofloxacin (CIP) and sulfamerazine (SM1) in swine manures. Physicochemical parameters (n=12) of the swine manure were used as independent variables using partial least-squares (PLSs) analysis. The cumulative cross-validated regression coefficients (Q 2 cum ) values, standard deviations (SDs) and external validation coefficient (Q 2 ext ) ranged from 0.761 to 0.868, 0.027 to 0.064, and 0.743 to 0.827 for the three models; as such, internal and external predictability of the models were strong. The pH, soluble organic carbon (SOC) and nitrogen (SON), and Ca were important explanatory variables for the OTC-Model, pH, SOC, and SON for the CIP-model, and pH, total organic nitrogen (TON), and SOC for the SM1-model. The high VIPs (variable importance in the projections) of pH (1.178-1.396), SOC (0.968-1.034), and SON (0.822 and 0.865) established these physicochemical parameters as likely being dominant (associatively) in affecting transport of antibiotics in swine manures. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Physics Learning Styles in Higher Education

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Loos, Rebecca; Ward, James

    2012-03-01

    Students in Physics learn in a variety ways depending on backgrounds and interests. This study proposes to evaluate how students in Physics learn using Howard Gardner's Theory of Multiple Intelligences. Physics utilizes numbers, conceptualization of models, observations and visualization skills, and the ability to understand and reflect on specific information. The main objective is to evaluate how Physics students learn specifically using spatial, visual and sequential approaches. This will be assessed by conducting a learning style survey provided by North Carolina State University (NCSU). The survey is completed online by the student after which the results are sent to NCSU. Students will print out the completed survey analysis for further evaluation. The NCSU results categorize students within five of ten learning styles. After the evaluation of Howard Gardner's Theory of Multiple Intelligences and the NCSU definitions of the ten learning styles, the NCSU sensing and visual learning styles will be defined as the Gardener's spatial, visual learning styles. NCSU's sequential learning style will be looked at separately. With the survey results, it can be determined if Physics students fall within the hypothesized learning styles.

  4. Effects of aging in catastrophe on the steady state and dynamics of a microtubule population

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jemseena, V.; Gopalakrishnan, Manoj

    2015-05-01

    Several independent observations have suggested that the catastrophe transition in microtubules is not a first-order process, as is usually assumed. Recent in vitro observations by Gardner et al. [M. K. Gardner et al., Cell 147, 1092 (2011), 10.1016/j.cell.2011.10.037] showed that microtubule catastrophe takes place via multiple steps and the frequency increases with the age of the filament. Here we investigate, via numerical simulations and mathematical calculations, some of the consequences of the age dependence of catastrophe on the dynamics of microtubules as a function of the aging rate, for two different models of aging: exponential growth, but saturating asymptotically, and purely linear growth. The boundary demarcating the steady-state and non-steady-state regimes in the dynamics is derived analytically in both cases. Numerical simulations, supported by analytical calculations in the linear model, show that aging leads to nonexponential length distributions in steady state. More importantly, oscillations ensue in microtubule length and velocity. The regularity of oscillations, as characterized by the negative dip in the autocorrelation function, is reduced by increasing the frequency of rescue events. Our study shows that the age dependence of catastrophe could function as an intrinsic mechanism to generate oscillatory dynamics in a microtubule population, distinct from hitherto identified ones.

  5. Investigation of heat and mass transfer under the influence of variable diffusion coefficient and thermal conductivity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mohyud Din, S. T.; Zubair, T.; Usman, M.; Hamid, M.; Rafiq, M.; Mohsin, S.

    2018-04-01

    This study is devoted to analyze the influence of variable diffusion coefficient and variable thermal conductivity on heat and mass transfer in Casson fluid flow. The behavior of concentration and temperature profiles in the presence of Joule heating and viscous dissipation is also studied. The dimensionless conversation laws with suitable BCs are solved via Modified Gegenbauer Wavelets Method (MGWM). It has been observed that increase in Casson fluid parameter (β ) and parameter ɛ enhances the Nusselt number. Moreover, Nusselt number of Newtonian fluid is less than that of the Casson fluid. The phenomenon of mass transport can be increased by solute of variable diffusion coefficient rather than solute of constant diffusion coefficient. A detailed analysis of results is appropriately highlighted. The obtained results, error estimates, and convergence analysis reconfirm the credibility of proposed algorithm. It is concluded that MGWM is an appropriate tool to tackle nonlinear physical models and hence may be extended to some other nonlinear problems of diversified physical nature also.

  6. A Maximum Likelihood Approach to Determine Sensor Radiometric Response Coefficients for NPP VIIRS Reflective Solar Bands

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lei, Ning; Chiang, Kwo-Fu; Oudrari, Hassan; Xiong, Xiaoxiong

    2011-01-01

    Optical sensors aboard Earth orbiting satellites such as the next generation Visible/Infrared Imager/Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) assume that the sensors radiometric response in the Reflective Solar Bands (RSB) is described by a quadratic polynomial, in relating the aperture spectral radiance to the sensor Digital Number (DN) readout. For VIIRS Flight Unit 1, the coefficients are to be determined before launch by an attenuation method, although the linear coefficient will be further determined on-orbit through observing the Solar Diffuser. In determining the quadratic polynomial coefficients by the attenuation method, a Maximum Likelihood approach is applied in carrying out the least-squares procedure. Crucial to the Maximum Likelihood least-squares procedure is the computation of the weight. The weight not only has a contribution from the noise of the sensor s digital count, with an important contribution from digitization error, but also is affected heavily by the mathematical expression used to predict the value of the dependent variable, because both the independent and the dependent variables contain random noise. In addition, model errors have a major impact on the uncertainties of the coefficients. The Maximum Likelihood approach demonstrates the inadequacy of the attenuation method model with a quadratic polynomial for the retrieved spectral radiance. We show that using the inadequate model dramatically increases the uncertainties of the coefficients. We compute the coefficient values and their uncertainties, considering both measurement and model errors.

  7. Designing Writing Exercises to Emphasize Environmental Education

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Narayanan, M.

    2008-12-01

    In this presentation, the author stresses the importance of writing exercises to educate students in certain disciplines. The objective is to make the students become personally involved so that their educational experience is more geared towards a learning paradigm instead of a teaching paradigm. In addition to accumulating a wealth of knowledge the students also refine and expand their writing skills and abilities. One should be pragmatic in one's approach. In other words, the instructor should have a clear understanding of the skills the students need to develop. It is important to define the target and implementation mode while designing writing exercises. Effective learning can thus be combined with enthusiasm in classroom instructional development. It is extremely important that all undergraduate engineering students are provided with an adequate understanding and thorough background of the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) of 1969. At present, undergraduate students at Miami University of Ohio do not acquire any knowledge pertaining to this particular topic. The author proposes that a topic based on NEPA be introduced in the Fluid Mechanics Course at a Junior Level. The author believes that there is an absolute and urgent need for introducing the students to the fact that various documents such as EA (Environmental Assessment), EIS (Environmental Impact Statement), FONSI (Finding Of No Significant Impact), are an essential part of present-day workplace environment. In this presentation the author talks about introducing NEPA in the classroom. More than a decade ago Harvard University Professor Dr. Howard Gardner suggested the theory of Multiple Intelligences. Dr. Gardner proposed that eight different Intelligences accounted for the development of human potential (Gardner, 1983, 1993, 2000). Leading scholars in the area of Cognitive Science and Educational Methodologies also agree and have concluded that it is essential that students need to be taught in a learning environment that enables them to acquire real-world problem-solving skills (Saxe, 1988; Senge, 1990; Sims, 1995). Educators should not allow the students to wonder whether they have been learning anything that would actually serve them in the workplace, upon graduation. (Barr and Tagg, 1995). Howard Gardner's list of Eight Intelligences is given below. 1. Linguistic intelligence ("word smart") 2. Logical intelligence ("number smart") 3. Spatial intelligence ("picture smart") 4. Kinesthetic intelligence ("body smart") 5. Musical intelligence ("music smart") 6. Interpersonal intelligence ("people smart") 7. Intrapersonal intelligence ("self smart") 8. Naturalist intelligence ("nature smart") The author has tried to examine students' learning development, behavior and exploration using some of the above eight Intelligences. In this presentation, he provides data he has collected while teaching certain selected courses (Narayanan, 2007). References Gardner, Howard. Frames of Mind: The Theory of Multiple Intelligences. New York: Basic,1983 Gardner, Howard. Multiple Intelligences: The Theory in Practice. New York: Basic, 1993. Gardner, Howard. Intelligence Reframed: Multiple Intelligences for the 21st Century. New York: Basic, 2000. Barr, R. B., and Tagg, J. (1995, November/December). From teaching to learning: A new paradigm for undergraduate education. Change: The Magazine of Higher Education, 13-24. Narayanan, Mysore (2007). Assessment of Perceptual Modality Styles. Proceedings of ASEE 2007 Annual Conference, Honolulu, Hawaii.

  8. Vertical structure of internal wave induced velocity for mode I and II solitary waves in two- and three-layer fluid

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gigiyatullin, Ayrat; Kurkin, Andrey; Kurkina, Oxana; Rouvinskaya, Ekaterina; Rybin, Artem

    2017-04-01

    With the use of the Gardner equation, or its variable-coefficient forms, the velocity components of fluid particles in the vertical section induced by a passage of internal waves can be estimated in weakly nonlinear limit. The horizontal velocity gives the greatest contribution into the local current speed. This is a typical property of long waves. This feature of an internal wave field may greatly contribute to the local sediment transport and/or resuspension. The velocity field induced by mode I and II internal solitary waves are studied. The contribution from second-order terms in asymptotic expansion into the horizontal velocity is estimated for the models of two- and three-layer fluid density stratification for solitons of positive and negative polarity, as well as for breathers of different shapes and amplitudes. The influence of the nonlinear correction manifests itself firstly in the shape of the lines of zero horizontal velocity: they are curved and the shape depends on the soliton amplitude and polarity while for the leading-order wave field they are horizontal. Also the wavefield accounting for the nonlinear correction for mode I waves has smaller maximal absolute values of negative velocities (near-surface for the soliton of elevation, and near-bottom for the soliton of depression) and larger maximums of positive velocities. Thus for the solitary internal waves of positive polarity weakly nonlinear theory overestimates the near-bottom velocities and underestimates the near-surface current. For solitary waves of negative polarity, which are the most typical for hydrological conditions of low and middle latitudes, the situation is the opposite. Similar estimations are produced for mode II waves, which possess more complex structure. The presented results of research are obtained with the support of the Russian Foundation for Basic Research grant 16-35-00413.

  9. Modeling temperature variations in a pilot plant thermophilic anaerobic digester.

    PubMed

    Valle-Guadarrama, Salvador; Espinosa-Solares, Teodoro; López-Cruz, Irineo L; Domaschko, Max

    2011-05-01

    A model that predicts temperature changes in a pilot plant thermophilic anaerobic digester was developed based on fundamental thermodynamic laws. The methodology utilized two simulation strategies. In the first, model equations were solved through a searching routine based on a minimal square optimization criterion, from which the overall heat transfer coefficient values, for both biodigester and heat exchanger, were determined. In the second, the simulation was performed with variable values of these overall coefficients. The prediction with both strategies allowed reproducing experimental data within 5% of the temperature span permitted in the equipment by the system control, which validated the model. The temperature variation was affected by the heterogeneity of the feeding and extraction processes, by the heterogeneity of the digestate recirculation through the heating system and by the lack of a perfect mixing inside the biodigester tank. The use of variable overall heat transfer coefficients improved the temperature change prediction and reduced the effect of a non-ideal performance of the pilot plant modeled.

  10. Harmonic regression of Landsat time series for modeling attributes from national forest inventory data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilson, Barry T.; Knight, Joseph F.; McRoberts, Ronald E.

    2018-03-01

    Imagery from the Landsat Program has been used frequently as a source of auxiliary data for modeling land cover, as well as a variety of attributes associated with tree cover. With ready access to all scenes in the archive since 2008 due to the USGS Landsat Data Policy, new approaches to deriving such auxiliary data from dense Landsat time series are required. Several methods have previously been developed for use with finer temporal resolution imagery (e.g. AVHRR and MODIS), including image compositing and harmonic regression using Fourier series. The manuscript presents a study, using Minnesota, USA during the years 2009-2013 as the study area and timeframe. The study examined the relative predictive power of land cover models, in particular those related to tree cover, using predictor variables based solely on composite imagery versus those using estimated harmonic regression coefficients. The study used two common non-parametric modeling approaches (i.e. k-nearest neighbors and random forests) for fitting classification and regression models of multiple attributes measured on USFS Forest Inventory and Analysis plots using all available Landsat imagery for the study area and timeframe. The estimated Fourier coefficients developed by harmonic regression of tasseled cap transformation time series data were shown to be correlated with land cover, including tree cover. Regression models using estimated Fourier coefficients as predictor variables showed a two- to threefold increase in explained variance for a small set of continuous response variables, relative to comparable models using monthly image composites. Similarly, the overall accuracies of classification models using the estimated Fourier coefficients were approximately 10-20 percentage points higher than the models using the image composites, with corresponding individual class accuracies between six and 45 percentage points higher.

  11. Electron and thermal transport via variable range hopping in MoSe2 single crystals

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Suri, Dhavala; Patel, R. S.

    2017-06-01

    Bulk single crystal molybdenum diselenide has been studied for its electronic and thermal transport properties. We perform resistivity measurements with current in-plane (CIP) and current perpendicular to plane (CPP) as a function of temperature. The CIP measurements exhibit metal to semiconductor transition at ≃31 K. In the semiconducting phase (T > 31 K), the transport is best explained by the variable range hopping (VRH) model. Large magnitude of resistivity in the CPP mode indicates strong structural anisotropy. The Seebeck coefficient as a function of temperature measured in the range of 90-300 K also agrees well with the VRH model. The room temperature Seebeck coefficient is found to be 139 μV/K. VRH fittings of the resistivity and the Seebeck coefficient data indicate high degree of localization.

  12. The intermediate endpoint effect in logistic and probit regression

    PubMed Central

    MacKinnon, DP; Lockwood, CM; Brown, CH; Wang, W; Hoffman, JM

    2010-01-01

    Background An intermediate endpoint is hypothesized to be in the middle of the causal sequence relating an independent variable to a dependent variable. The intermediate variable is also called a surrogate or mediating variable and the corresponding effect is called the mediated, surrogate endpoint, or intermediate endpoint effect. Clinical studies are often designed to change an intermediate or surrogate endpoint and through this intermediate change influence the ultimate endpoint. In many intermediate endpoint clinical studies the dependent variable is binary, and logistic or probit regression is used. Purpose The purpose of this study is to describe a limitation of a widely used approach to assessing intermediate endpoint effects and to propose an alternative method, based on products of coefficients, that yields more accurate results. Methods The intermediate endpoint model for a binary outcome is described for a true binary outcome and for a dichotomization of a latent continuous outcome. Plots of true values and a simulation study are used to evaluate the different methods. Results Distorted estimates of the intermediate endpoint effect and incorrect conclusions can result from the application of widely used methods to assess the intermediate endpoint effect. The same problem occurs for the proportion of an effect explained by an intermediate endpoint, which has been suggested as a useful measure for identifying intermediate endpoints. A solution to this problem is given based on the relationship between latent variable modeling and logistic or probit regression. Limitations More complicated intermediate variable models are not addressed in the study, although the methods described in the article can be extended to these more complicated models. Conclusions Researchers are encouraged to use an intermediate endpoint method based on the product of regression coefficients. A common method based on difference in coefficient methods can lead to distorted conclusions regarding the intermediate effect. PMID:17942466

  13. Soliton and periodic solutions for time-dependent coefficient non-linear equation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guner, Ozkan

    2016-01-01

    In this article, we establish exact solutions for the generalized (3+1)-dimensional variable coefficient Kadomtsev-Petviashvili (GVCKP) equation. Using solitary wave ansatz in terms of ? functions and the modified sine-cosine method, we find exact analytical bright soliton solutions and exact periodic solutions for the considered model. The physical parameters in the soliton solutions are obtained as function of the dependent model coefficients. The effectiveness and reliability of the method are shown by its application to the GVCKP equation.

  14. Glaciers and ice caps outside Greenland

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sharp, Marin; Wolken, G.; Burgess, D.; Cogley, J.G.; Copland, L.; Thomson, L.; Arendt, A.; Wouters, B.; Kohler, J.; Andreassen, L.M.; O'Neel, Shad; Pelto, M.

    2015-01-01

    Mountain glaciers and ice caps cover an area of over 400 000 km2 in the Arctic, and are a major influence on global sea level (Gardner et al. 2011, 2013; Jacob et al. 2012). They gain mass by snow accumulation and lose mass by meltwater runoff. Where they terminate in water (ocean or lake), they also lose mass by iceberg calving. The climatic mass balance (Bclim, the difference between annual snow accumulation and annual meltwater runoff) is a widely used index of how glaciers respond to climate variability and change. The total mass balance (ΔM) is defined as the difference between annual snow accumulation and annual mass losses (by iceberg calving plus runoff).

  15. Influence of the pressure dependent coefficient of friction on deep drawing springback predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gil, Imanol; Galdos, Lander; Mendiguren, Joseba; Mugarra, Endika; Sáenz de Argandoña, Eneko

    2016-10-01

    This research studies the effect of considering an advanced variable friction coefficient on the springback prediction of stamping processes. Traditional constant coefficient of friction considerations are being replaced by more advanced friction coefficient definitions. The aim of this work is to show the influence of defining a pressure dependent friction coefficient on numerical springback predictions of a DX54D mild steel, a HSLA380 and a DP780 high strength steel. The pressure dependent friction model of each material was fitted to the experimental data obtained by Strip Drawing tests. Then, these friction models were implemented in a numerical simulation of a drawing process of an industrial automotive part. The results showed important differences between defining a pressure dependent friction coefficient or a constant friction coefficient.

  16. The time-lapse AVO difference inversion for changes in reservoir parameters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Longxiao, Zhi; Hanming, Gu; Yan, Li

    2016-12-01

    The result of conventional time-lapse seismic processing is the difference between the amplitude and the post-stack seismic data. Although stack processing can improve the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of seismic data, it also causes a considerable loss of important information about the amplitude changes and only gives the qualitative interpretation. To predict the changes in reservoir fluid more precisely and accurately, we also need the quantitative information of the reservoir. To achieve this aim, we develop the method of time-lapse AVO (amplitude versus offset) difference inversion. For the inversion of reservoir changes in elastic parameters, we apply the Gardner equation as the constraint and convert the three-parameter inversion of elastic parameter changes into a two-parameter inversion to make the inversion more stable. For the inversion of variations in the reservoir parameters, we infer the relation between the difference of the reflection coefficient and variations in the reservoir parameters, and then invert reservoir parameter changes directly. The results of the theoretical modeling computation and practical application show that our method can estimate the relative variations in reservoir density, P-wave and S-wave velocity, calculate reservoir changes in water saturation and effective pressure accurately, and then provide reference for the rational exploitation of the reservoir.

  17. [From clinical judgment to linear regression model.

    PubMed

    Palacios-Cruz, Lino; Pérez, Marcela; Rivas-Ruiz, Rodolfo; Talavera, Juan O

    2013-01-01

    When we think about mathematical models, such as linear regression model, we think that these terms are only used by those engaged in research, a notion that is far from the truth. Legendre described the first mathematical model in 1805, and Galton introduced the formal term in 1886. Linear regression is one of the most commonly used regression models in clinical practice. It is useful to predict or show the relationship between two or more variables as long as the dependent variable is quantitative and has normal distribution. Stated in another way, the regression is used to predict a measure based on the knowledge of at least one other variable. Linear regression has as it's first objective to determine the slope or inclination of the regression line: Y = a + bx, where "a" is the intercept or regression constant and it is equivalent to "Y" value when "X" equals 0 and "b" (also called slope) indicates the increase or decrease that occurs when the variable "x" increases or decreases in one unit. In the regression line, "b" is called regression coefficient. The coefficient of determination (R 2 ) indicates the importance of independent variables in the outcome.

  18. SCI model structure determination program (OSR) user's guide. [optimal subset regression

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1979-01-01

    The computer program, OSR (Optimal Subset Regression) which estimates models for rotorcraft body and rotor force and moment coefficients is described. The technique used is based on the subset regression algorithm. Given time histories of aerodynamic coefficients, aerodynamic variables, and control inputs, the program computes correlation between various time histories. The model structure determination is based on these correlations. Inputs and outputs of the program are given.

  19. Astronauts Gardner and Allen on the RMS after recapture of Westar VI

    NASA Image and Video Library

    1984-11-14

    51A-39-063 (14 Nov 1984) --- A 70mm frame of WESTAR VI post-retrieval activity. Astronaut Dale A. Gardner (left), STS-51A mission specialist, holds a "For Sale" sign, making light reference to the status of the re-captured communications spacecraft, which has been stranded since its initial deployment. Astronaut Joseph P. Allen IV stands on the Mobile Foot Restraint (MFR), which in tandem with the Remote Manipulator System (RMS) arm, controlled by Dr. Anna L. Fisher inside the space shuttle Discovery's cabin, served as a cherry-picker for capture efforts. Photo credit: NASA

  20. Evaluation of Validity and Reliability for Hierarchical Scales Using Latent Variable Modeling

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Raykov, Tenko; Marcoulides, George A.

    2012-01-01

    A latent variable modeling method is outlined, which accomplishes estimation of criterion validity and reliability for a multicomponent measuring instrument with hierarchical structure. The approach provides point and interval estimates for the scale criterion validity and reliability coefficients, and can also be used for testing composite or…

  1. Meta-Analysis of Scale Reliability Using Latent Variable Modeling

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Raykov, Tenko; Marcoulides, George A.

    2013-01-01

    A latent variable modeling approach is outlined that can be used for meta-analysis of reliability coefficients of multicomponent measuring instruments. Important limitations of efforts to combine composite reliability findings across multiple studies are initially pointed out. A reliability synthesis procedure is discussed that is based on…

  2. Impact of baseline systolic blood pressure on visit-to-visit blood pressure variability: the Kailuan study.

    PubMed

    Wang, Anxin; Li, Zhifang; Yang, Yuling; Chen, Guojuan; Wang, Chunxue; Wu, Yuntao; Ruan, Chunyu; Liu, Yan; Wang, Yilong; Wu, Shouling

    2016-01-01

    To investigate the relationship between baseline systolic blood pressure (SBP) and visit-to-visit blood pressure variability in a general population. This is a prospective longitudinal cohort study on cardiovascular risk factors and cardiovascular or cerebrovascular events. Study participants attended a face-to-face interview every 2 years. Blood pressure variability was defined using the standard deviation and coefficient of variation of all SBP values at baseline and follow-up visits. The coefficient of variation is the ratio of the standard deviation to the mean SBP. We used multivariate linear regression models to test the relationships between SBP and standard deviation, and between SBP and coefficient of variation. Approximately 43,360 participants (mean age: 48.2±11.5 years) were selected. In multivariate analysis, after adjustment for potential confounders, baseline SBPs <120 mmHg were inversely related to standard deviation (P<0.001) and coefficient of variation (P<0.001). In contrast, baseline SBPs ≥140 mmHg were significantly positively associated with standard deviation (P<0.001) and coefficient of variation (P<0.001). Baseline SBPs of 120-140 mmHg were associated with the lowest standard deviation and coefficient of variation. The associations between baseline SBP and standard deviation, and between SBP and coefficient of variation during follow-ups showed a U curve. Both lower and higher baseline SBPs were associated with increased blood pressure variability. To control blood pressure variability, a good target SBP range for a general population might be 120-139 mmHg.

  3. Swift Monitoring of NGC 4151: Evidence for a Second X-Ray/UV Reprocessing

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Edelson, R.; Gelbord, J.; Cackett, E.

    Swift monitoring of NGC 4151 with an ∼6 hr sampling over a total of 69 days in early 2016 is used to construct light curves covering five bands in the X-rays (0.3–50 keV) and six in the ultraviolet (UV)/optical (1900–5500 Å). The three hardest X-ray bands (>2.5 keV) are all strongly correlated with no measurable interband lag, while the two softer bands show lower variability and weaker correlations. The UV/optical bands are significantly correlated with the X-rays, lagging ∼3–4 days behind the hard X-rays. The variability within the UV/optical bands is also strongly correlated, with the UV appearing to leadmore » the optical by ∼0.5–1 days. This combination of ≳3 day lags between the X-rays and UV and ≲1 day lags within the UV/optical appears to rule out the “lamp-post” reprocessing model in which a hot, X-ray emitting corona directly illuminates the accretion disk, which then reprocesses the energy in the UV/optical. Instead, these results appear consistent with the Gardner and Done picture in which two separate reprocessings occur: first, emission from the corona illuminates an extreme-UV-emitting toroidal component that shields the disk from the corona; this then heats the extreme-UV component, which illuminates the disk and drives its variability.« less

  4. Effect of Variable Manning Coefficients on Tsunami Inundation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barberopoulou, A.; Rees, D.

    2017-12-01

    Numerical simulations are commonly used to help estimate tsunami hazard, improve evacuation plans, issue or cancel tsunami warnings, inform forecasting and hazard assessments and have therefore become an integral part of hazard mitigation among the tsunami community. Many numerical codes exist for simulating tsunamis, most of which have undergone extensive benchmarking and testing. Tsunami hazard or risk assessments employ these codes following a deterministic or probabilistic approach. Depending on the scope these studies may or may not consider uncertainty in the numerical simulations, the effects of tides, variable friction or estimate financial losses, none of which are necessarily trivial. Distributed manning coefficients, the roughness coefficients used in hydraulic modeling, are commonly used in simulating both riverine and pluvial flood events however, their use in tsunami hazard assessments is primarily part of limited scope studies and for the most part, not a standard practice. For this work, we investigate variations in manning coefficients and their effects on tsunami inundation extent, pattern and financial loss. To assign manning coefficients we use land use maps that come from the New Zealand Land Cover Database (LCDB) and more recent data from the Ministry of the Environment. More than 40 classes covering different types of land use are combined into major classes such as cropland, grassland and wetland representing common types of land use in New Zealand, each of which is assigned a unique manning coefficient. By utilizing different data sources for variable manning coefficients, we examine the impact of data sources and classification methodology on the accuracy of model outputs.

  5. On the Asymptotic Relative Efficiency of Planned Missingness Designs.

    PubMed

    Rhemtulla, Mijke; Savalei, Victoria; Little, Todd D

    2016-03-01

    In planned missingness (PM) designs, certain data are set a priori to be missing. PM designs can increase validity and reduce cost; however, little is known about the loss of efficiency that accompanies these designs. The present paper compares PM designs to reduced sample (RN) designs that have the same total number of data points concentrated in fewer participants. In 4 studies, we consider models for both observed and latent variables, designs that do or do not include an "X set" of variables with complete data, and a full range of between- and within-set correlation values. All results are obtained using asymptotic relative efficiency formulas, and thus no data are generated; this novel approach allows us to examine whether PM designs have theoretical advantages over RN designs removing the impact of sampling error. Our primary findings are that (a) in manifest variable regression models, estimates of regression coefficients have much lower relative efficiency in PM designs as compared to RN designs, (b) relative efficiency of factor correlation or latent regression coefficient estimates is maximized when the indicators of each latent variable come from different sets, and (c) the addition of an X set improves efficiency in manifest variable regression models only for the parameters that directly involve the X-set variables, but it substantially improves efficiency of most parameters in latent variable models. We conclude that PM designs can be beneficial when the model of interest is a latent variable model; recommendations are made for how to optimize such a design.

  6. Advanced statistics: linear regression, part II: multiple linear regression.

    PubMed

    Marill, Keith A

    2004-01-01

    The applications of simple linear regression in medical research are limited, because in most situations, there are multiple relevant predictor variables. Univariate statistical techniques such as simple linear regression use a single predictor variable, and they often may be mathematically correct but clinically misleading. Multiple linear regression is a mathematical technique used to model the relationship between multiple independent predictor variables and a single dependent outcome variable. It is used in medical research to model observational data, as well as in diagnostic and therapeutic studies in which the outcome is dependent on more than one factor. Although the technique generally is limited to data that can be expressed with a linear function, it benefits from a well-developed mathematical framework that yields unique solutions and exact confidence intervals for regression coefficients. Building on Part I of this series, this article acquaints the reader with some of the important concepts in multiple regression analysis. These include multicollinearity, interaction effects, and an expansion of the discussion of inference testing, leverage, and variable transformations to multivariate models. Examples from the first article in this series are expanded on using a primarily graphic, rather than mathematical, approach. The importance of the relationships among the predictor variables and the dependence of the multivariate model coefficients on the choice of these variables are stressed. Finally, concepts in regression model building are discussed.

  7. Modeling Heterogeneity in Relationships between Initial Status and Rates of Change: Treating Latent Variable Regression Coefficients as Random Coefficients in a Three-Level Hierarchical Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Choi, Kilchan; Seltzer, Michael

    2010-01-01

    In studies of change in education and numerous other fields, interest often centers on how differences in the status of individuals at the start of a period of substantive interest relate to differences in subsequent change. In this article, the authors present a fully Bayesian approach to estimating three-level Hierarchical Models in which latent…

  8. NLSCIDNT user's guide maximum likehood parameter identification computer program with nonlinear rotorcraft model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1979-01-01

    A nonlinear, maximum likelihood, parameter identification computer program (NLSCIDNT) is described which evaluates rotorcraft stability and control coefficients from flight test data. The optimal estimates of the parameters (stability and control coefficients) are determined (identified) by minimizing the negative log likelihood cost function. The minimization technique is the Levenberg-Marquardt method, which behaves like the steepest descent method when it is far from the minimum and behaves like the modified Newton-Raphson method when it is nearer the minimum. Twenty-one states and 40 measurement variables are modeled, and any subset may be selected. States which are not integrated may be fixed at an input value, or time history data may be substituted for the state in the equations of motion. Any aerodynamic coefficient may be expressed as a nonlinear polynomial function of selected 'expansion variables'.

  9. Evaluation of Weighted Scale Reliability and Criterion Validity: A Latent Variable Modeling Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Raykov, Tenko

    2007-01-01

    A method is outlined for evaluating the reliability and criterion validity of weighted scales based on sets of unidimensional measures. The approach is developed within the framework of latent variable modeling methodology and is useful for point and interval estimation of these measurement quality coefficients in counseling and education…

  10. QSPR modeling of octanol/water partition coefficient of antineoplastic agents by balance of correlations.

    PubMed

    Toropov, Andrey A; Toropova, Alla P; Raska, Ivan; Benfenati, Emilio

    2010-04-01

    Three different splits into the subtraining set (n = 22), the set of calibration (n = 21), and the test set (n = 12) of 55 antineoplastic agents have been examined. By the correlation balance of SMILES-based optimal descriptors quite satisfactory models for the octanol/water partition coefficient have been obtained on all three splits. The correlation balance is the optimization of a one-variable model with a target function that provides both the maximal values of the correlation coefficient for the subtraining and calibration set and the minimum of the difference between the above-mentioned correlation coefficients. Thus, the calibration set is a preliminary test set. Copyright (c) 2009 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  11. Interval estimation and optimal design for the within-subject coefficient of variation for continuous and binary variables

    PubMed Central

    Shoukri, Mohamed M; Elkum, Nasser; Walter, Stephen D

    2006-01-01

    Background In this paper we propose the use of the within-subject coefficient of variation as an index of a measurement's reliability. For continuous variables and based on its maximum likelihood estimation we derive a variance-stabilizing transformation and discuss confidence interval construction within the framework of a one-way random effects model. We investigate sample size requirements for the within-subject coefficient of variation for continuous and binary variables. Methods We investigate the validity of the approximate normal confidence interval by Monte Carlo simulations. In designing a reliability study, a crucial issue is the balance between the number of subjects to be recruited and the number of repeated measurements per subject. We discuss efficiency of estimation and cost considerations for the optimal allocation of the sample resources. The approach is illustrated by an example on Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI). We also discuss the issue of sample size estimation for dichotomous responses with two examples. Results For the continuous variable we found that the variance stabilizing transformation improves the asymptotic coverage probabilities on the within-subject coefficient of variation for the continuous variable. The maximum like estimation and sample size estimation based on pre-specified width of confidence interval are novel contribution to the literature for the binary variable. Conclusion Using the sample size formulas, we hope to help clinical epidemiologists and practicing statisticians to efficiently design reliability studies using the within-subject coefficient of variation, whether the variable of interest is continuous or binary. PMID:16686943

  12. Towards Interactive Timing Analysis for Designing Reactive Systems

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-04-03

    analysis augments regions with timing anno - tations, shown in the upper right corner. In our prototype, they have the format 〈Flat WCET 〉/〈Deep WCET...USA, IEEE (2003) 64–83 4. Bernat, G., Davis, R., Merriam, N., Tuffen, J ., Gardner, A., Bennett, M., Armstrong, D.: Identifying opportunities for worst...Workshop on Model-Driven High-Level Programming of Embedded Systems (SLA++P’07), March 2007, Braga, Portugal. 6. Wilhelm, R., Engblom, J ., Ermedahl, A

  13. Gene expression models for prediction of longitudinal dispersion coefficient in streams

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sattar, Ahmed M. A.; Gharabaghi, Bahram

    2015-05-01

    Longitudinal dispersion is the key hydrologic process that governs transport of pollutants in natural streams. It is critical for spill action centers to be able to predict the pollutant travel time and break-through curves accurately following accidental spills in urban streams. This study presents a novel gene expression model for longitudinal dispersion developed using 150 published data sets of geometric and hydraulic parameters in natural streams in the United States, Canada, Europe, and New Zealand. The training and testing of the model were accomplished using randomly-selected 67% (100 data sets) and 33% (50 data sets) of the data sets, respectively. Gene expression programming (GEP) is used to develop empirical relations between the longitudinal dispersion coefficient and various control variables, including the Froude number which reflects the effect of reach slope, aspect ratio, and the bed material roughness on the dispersion coefficient. Two GEP models have been developed, and the prediction uncertainties of the developed GEP models are quantified and compared with those of existing models, showing improved prediction accuracy in favor of GEP models. Finally, a parametric analysis is performed for further verification of the developed GEP models. The main reason for the higher accuracy of the GEP models compared to the existing regression models is that exponents of the key variables (aspect ratio and bed material roughness) are not constants but a function of the Froude number. The proposed relations are both simple and accurate and can be effectively used to predict the longitudinal dispersion coefficients in natural streams.

  14. Forecast of future aviation fuels: The model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ayati, M. B.; Liu, C. Y.; English, J. M.

    1981-01-01

    A conceptual models of the commercial air transportation industry is developed which can be used to predict trends in economics, demand, and consumption. The methodology is based on digraph theory, which considers the interaction of variables and propagation of changes. Air transportation economics are treated by examination of major variables, their relationships, historic trends, and calculation of regression coefficients. A description of the modeling technique and a compilation of historic airline industry statistics used to determine interaction coefficients are included. Results of model validations show negligible difference between actual and projected values over the twenty-eight year period of 1959 to 1976. A limited application of the method presents forecasts of air tranportation industry demand, growth, revenue, costs, and fuel consumption to 2020 for two scenarios of future economic growth and energy consumption.

  15. Antidepressant-induced Remission of Gardner Diamond Syndrome

    PubMed Central

    Sawant, Neena Sanjiv; Singh, Deepika Abhainath

    2012-01-01

    We describe the clinical presentation of a 25-year-old female patient who presented in dermatology with recurrent episodes of painful ecchymotic bruising over the anterior aspect of both arms and face. On enquiry, these episodes were precipitated by emotional stress and were preceded with a history of fall from the stairs. The patient also had multiple stressors in her day-to-day life and symptoms of depression. A diagnosis of mild depressive disorder without somatic complaints and Gardner Diamond syndrome was made. The patient was started on antidepressants, which not only improved her mood symptoms but also caused a remission of her painful bruises. PMID:23723552

  16. Conway's Game of Life: Early Personal Recollections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wainwright, Robert

    When the October 1970 issue of Scientific American arrived, I had no idea the extent to which Martin Gardner's article in that issue would affect my life. As long as I can remember, my custom would be to seek out the Mathematical Games column in search for Gardner's latest topic with the usual reader challenges. My first reaction to that particular article introducing a new pastime titled "The fantastic combinations of John Conway's new solitaire game 'life''' was only mildly interesting. A couple of days later, still curious about the outcome of random patterns, I located an old checkerboard and a small jarful of pennies to investigate this new game.

  17. The Computational Complexity of RaceTrack

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holzer, Markus; McKenzie, Pierre

    Martin Gardner in the early 1970's described the game of RaceTrack [M. Gardner, Mathematical games - Sim, Chomp and Race Track: new games for the intellect (and not for Lady Luck), Scientific American, 228(1):108-115, Jan. 1973]. Here we study the complexity of deciding whether a RaceTrack player has a winning strategy. We first prove that the complexity of RaceTrack reachability, i.e., whether the finish line can be reached or not, crucially depends on whether the car can touch the edge of the carriageway (racetrack): the non-touching variant is NL-complete while the touching variant is equivalent to the undirected grid graph reachability problem, a problem in L but not known to be L-hard. Then we show that single-player RaceTrack is NL-complete, regardless of whether driving on the track boundary is allowed or not, and that deciding the existence of a winning strategy in Gardner's original two-player game is P-complete. Hence RaceTrack is an example of a game that is interesting to play despite the fact that deciding the existence of a winning strategy is most likely not NP-hard.

  18. Moderation analysis using a two-level regression model.

    PubMed

    Yuan, Ke-Hai; Cheng, Ying; Maxwell, Scott

    2014-10-01

    Moderation analysis is widely used in social and behavioral research. The most commonly used model for moderation analysis is moderated multiple regression (MMR) in which the explanatory variables of the regression model include product terms, and the model is typically estimated by least squares (LS). This paper argues for a two-level regression model in which the regression coefficients of a criterion variable on predictors are further regressed on moderator variables. An algorithm for estimating the parameters of the two-level model by normal-distribution-based maximum likelihood (NML) is developed. Formulas for the standard errors (SEs) of the parameter estimates are provided and studied. Results indicate that, when heteroscedasticity exists, NML with the two-level model gives more efficient and more accurate parameter estimates than the LS analysis of the MMR model. When error variances are homoscedastic, NML with the two-level model leads to essentially the same results as LS with the MMR model. Most importantly, the two-level regression model permits estimating the percentage of variance of each regression coefficient that is due to moderator variables. When applied to data from General Social Surveys 1991, NML with the two-level model identified a significant moderation effect of race on the regression of job prestige on years of education while LS with the MMR model did not. An R package is also developed and documented to facilitate the application of the two-level model.

  19. Fnk Model of Cracking Rate Calculus for a Variable Asymmetry Coefficient

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roşca, Vâlcu; Miriţoiu, Cosmin Mihai

    2017-12-01

    In the process of materials fracture, a very important parameter to study is the cracking rate growth da/dN. This paper proposes an analysis of the cracking rate, in a comparative way, by using four mathematical models:1 - polynomial method, by using successive iterations according to the ASTM E647 standard; 2 - model that uses the Paris formula; 3 - Walker formula method; 4 - NASGRO model or Forman - Newman - Konig equation, abbreviated as FNK model. This model is used in the NASA programs studies. For the tests, CT type specimens were made from stainless steel, V2A class, 10TiNiCr175 mark, and loaded to a variable tensile test axial - eccentrically, with the asymmetry coefficients: R= 0.1, 0.3 and 0.5; at the 213K (-60°C) temperature. There are analyzed the cracking rates variations according to the above models, especially through FNK method, highlighting the asymmetry factor variation.

  20. Effects of Southern Hemisphere Wind Changes on the Meridional Overturning Circulation in Ocean Models.

    PubMed

    Gent, Peter R

    2016-01-01

    Observations show that the Southern Hemisphere zonal wind stress maximum has increased significantly over the past 30 years. Eddy-resolving ocean models show that the resulting increase in the Southern Ocean mean flow meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is partially compensated by an increase in the eddy MOC. This effect can be reproduced in the non-eddy-resolving ocean component of a climate model, providing the eddy parameterization coefficient is variable and not a constant. If the coefficient is a constant, then the Southern Ocean mean MOC change is balanced by an unrealistically large change in the Atlantic Ocean MOC. Southern Ocean eddy compensation means that Southern Hemisphere winds cannot be the dominant mechanism driving midlatitude North Atlantic MOC variability.

  1. Uncertainty Quantification of Turbulence Model Closure Coefficients for Transonic Wall-Bounded Flows

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schaefer, John; West, Thomas; Hosder, Serhat; Rumsey, Christopher; Carlson, Jan-Renee; Kleb, William

    2015-01-01

    The goal of this work was to quantify the uncertainty and sensitivity of commonly used turbulence models in Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes codes due to uncertainty in the values of closure coefficients for transonic, wall-bounded flows and to rank the contribution of each coefficient to uncertainty in various output flow quantities of interest. Specifically, uncertainty quantification of turbulence model closure coefficients was performed for transonic flow over an axisymmetric bump at zero degrees angle of attack and the RAE 2822 transonic airfoil at a lift coefficient of 0.744. Three turbulence models were considered: the Spalart-Allmaras Model, Wilcox (2006) k-w Model, and the Menter Shear-Stress Trans- port Model. The FUN3D code developed by NASA Langley Research Center was used as the flow solver. The uncertainty quantification analysis employed stochastic expansions based on non-intrusive polynomial chaos as an efficient means of uncertainty propagation. Several integrated and point-quantities are considered as uncertain outputs for both CFD problems. All closure coefficients were treated as epistemic uncertain variables represented with intervals. Sobol indices were used to rank the relative contributions of each closure coefficient to the total uncertainty in the output quantities of interest. This study identified a number of closure coefficients for each turbulence model for which more information will reduce the amount of uncertainty in the output significantly for transonic, wall-bounded flows.

  2. Model aerodynamic test results for two variable cycle engine coannular exhaust systems at simulated takeoff and cruise conditions. Comprehensive data report. Volume 2: Tabulated aerodynamic data book 2

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nelson, D. P.

    1981-01-01

    Tabulated aerodynamic data from coannular nozzle performance tests are given for test runs 26 through 37. The data include nozzle thrust coefficient parameters, nozzle discharge coefficients, and static pressure tap measurements.

  3. Incorporating additional tree and environmental variables in a lodgepole pine stem profile model

    Treesearch

    John C. Byrne

    1993-01-01

    A new variable-form segmented stem profile model is developed for lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) trees from the northern Rocky Mountains of the United States. I improved estimates of stem diameter by predicting two of the model coefficients with linear equations using a measure of tree form, defined as a ratio of dbh and total height. Additional improvements were...

  4. Spatiotemporal characteristics of heat waves over China in regional climate simulations within the CORDEX-EA project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Pinya; Tang, Jianping; Sun, Xuguang; Liu, Jianyong; Juan, Fang

    2018-03-01

    Using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, this paper analyzes the spatiotemporal features of heat waves in 20-year regional climate simulations over East Asia, and investigates the capability of WRF to reproduce observational heat waves in China. Within the framework of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), the WRF model is driven by the ERA-Interim (ERAIN) reanalysis, and five continuous simulations are conducted from 1989 to 2008. Of these, four runs apply the interior spectral nudging (SN) technique with different wavenumbers, nudging variables and nudging coefficients. Model validations show that WRF can reasonably reproduce the spatiotemporal features of heat waves in China. Compared with the experiment without SN, the application of SN is effectie on improving the skill of the model in simulating both the spatial distributions and temporal variations of heat waves of different intensities. The WRF model shows advantages in reproducing the synoptic circulations with SN and therefore yields better representations for heat wave events. Besides, the SN method is able to preserve the variability of large-scale circulations quite well, which in turn adjusts the extreme temperature variability towards the observation. Among the four SN experiments, those with stronger nudging coefficients perform better in modulating both the spatial and temporal features of heat waves. In contrast, smaller nudging coefficients weaken the effects of SN on improving WRF's performances.

  5. An Obstruction to the Integrability of a Class of Non-linear Wave Equations by 1-Stable Cartan Characteristics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fackerell, E. D.; Hartley, D.; Tucker, R. W.

    We examine in detail the Cauchy problem for a class of non-linear hyperbolic equations in two independent variables. This class is motivated by the analysis of the dynamics of a line of non-linearly coupled particles by Fermi, Pasta, and Ulam and extends the recent investigation of this problem by Gardner and Kamran. We find conditions for the existence of a 1-stable Cartan characteristic of a Pfaffian exterior differential system whose integral curves provide a solution to the Cauchy problem. The same obstruction to involution is exposed in Darboux's method of integration and the two approaches are compared. A class of particular solutions to the obstruction is constructed.

  6. Coupled oscillators in identification of nonlinear damping of a real parametric pendulum

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Olejnik, Paweł; Awrejcewicz, Jan

    2018-01-01

    A damped parametric pendulum with friction is identified twice by means of its precise and imprecise mathematical model. A laboratory test stand designed for experimental investigations of nonlinear effects determined by a viscous resistance and the stick-slip phenomenon serves as the model mechanical system. An influence of accurateness of mathematical modeling on the time variability of the nonlinear damping coefficient of the oscillator is proved. A free decay response of a precisely and imprecisely modeled physical pendulum is dependent on two different time-varying coefficients of damping. The coefficients of the analyzed parametric oscillator are identified with the use of a new semi-empirical method based on a coupled oscillators approach, utilizing the fractional order derivative of the discrete measurement series treated as an input to the numerical model. Results of application of the proposed method of identification of the nonlinear coefficients of the damped parametric oscillator have been illustrated and extensively discussed.

  7. Quantifying Grain-Size Variability of Metal Pollutants in Road-Deposited Sediments Using the Coefficient of Variation

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Xiaoxue; Li, Xuyong

    2017-01-01

    Particle grain size is an important indicator for the variability in physical characteristics and pollutants composition of road-deposited sediments (RDS). Quantitative assessment of the grain-size variability in RDS amount, metal concentration, metal load and GSFLoad is essential to elimination of the uncertainty it causes in estimation of RDS emission load and formulation of control strategies. In this study, grain-size variability was explored and quantified using the coefficient of variation (Cv) of the particle size compositions, metal concentrations, metal loads, and GSFLoad values in RDS. Several trends in grain-size variability of RDS were identified: (i) the medium class (105–450 µm) variability in terms of particle size composition, metal loads, and GSFLoad values in RDS was smaller than the fine (<105 µm) and coarse (450–2000 µm) class; (ii) The grain-size variability in terms of metal concentrations increased as the particle size increased, while the metal concentrations decreased; (iii) When compared to the Lorenz coefficient (Lc), the Cv was similarly effective at describing the grain-size variability, whereas it is simpler to calculate because it did not require the data to be pre-processed. The results of this study will facilitate identification of the uncertainty in modelling RDS caused by grain-size class variability. PMID:28788078

  8. Consistent model identification of varying coefficient quantile regression with BIC tuning parameter selection

    PubMed Central

    Zheng, Qi; Peng, Limin

    2016-01-01

    Quantile regression provides a flexible platform for evaluating covariate effects on different segments of the conditional distribution of response. As the effects of covariates may change with quantile level, contemporaneously examining a spectrum of quantiles is expected to have a better capacity to identify variables with either partial or full effects on the response distribution, as compared to focusing on a single quantile. Under this motivation, we study a general adaptively weighted LASSO penalization strategy in the quantile regression setting, where a continuum of quantile index is considered and coefficients are allowed to vary with quantile index. We establish the oracle properties of the resulting estimator of coefficient function. Furthermore, we formally investigate a BIC-type uniform tuning parameter selector and show that it can ensure consistent model selection. Our numerical studies confirm the theoretical findings and illustrate an application of the new variable selection procedure. PMID:28008212

  9. A Model to Couple Flow, Thermal and Reactive Chemical Transport, and Geo-mechanics in Variably Saturated Media

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yeh, G. T.; Tsai, C. H.

    2015-12-01

    This paper presents the development of a THMC (thermal-hydrology-mechanics-chemistry) process model in variably saturated media. The governing equations for variably saturated flow and reactive chemical transport are obtained based on the mass conservation principle of species transport supplemented with Darcy's law, constraint of species concentration, equation of states, and constitutive law of K-S-P (Conductivity-Degree of Saturation-Capillary Pressure). The thermal transport equation is obtained based on the conservation of energy. The geo-mechanic displacement is obtained based on the assumption of equilibrium. Conventionally, these equations have been implicitly coupled via the calculations of secondary variables based on primary variables. The mechanisms of coupling have not been obvious. In this paper, governing equations are explicitly coupled for all primary variables. The coupling is accomplished via the storage coefficients, transporting velocities, and conduction-dispersion-diffusion coefficient tensor; one set each for every primary variable. With this new system of equations, the coupling mechanisms become clear. Physical interpretations of every term in the coupled equations will be discussed. Examples will be employed to demonstrate the intuition and superiority of these explicit coupling approaches. Keywords: Variably Saturated Flow, Thermal Transport, Geo-mechanics, Reactive Transport.

  10. Prediction of Partition Coefficients of Organic Compounds between SPME/PDMS and Aqueous Solution

    PubMed Central

    Chao, Keh-Ping; Lu, Yu-Ting; Yang, Hsiu-Wen

    2014-01-01

    Polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) is commonly used as the coated polymer in the solid phase microextraction (SPME) technique. In this study, the partition coefficients of organic compounds between SPME/PDMS and the aqueous solution were compiled from the literature sources. The correlation analysis for partition coefficients was conducted to interpret the effect of their physicochemical properties and descriptors on the partitioning process. The PDMS-water partition coefficients were significantly correlated to the polarizability of organic compounds (r = 0.977, p < 0.05). An empirical model, consisting of the polarizability, the molecular connectivity index, and an indicator variable, was developed to appropriately predict the partition coefficients of 61 organic compounds for the training set. The predictive ability of the empirical model was demonstrated by using it on a test set of 26 chemicals not included in the training set. The empirical model, applying the straightforward calculated molecular descriptors, for estimating the PDMS-water partition coefficient will contribute to the practical applications of the SPME technique. PMID:24534804

  11. Determination of the optimal training principle and input variables in artificial neural network model for the biweekly chlorophyll-a prediction: a case study of the Yuqiao Reservoir, China.

    PubMed

    Liu, Yu; Xi, Du-Gang; Li, Zhao-Liang

    2015-01-01

    Predicting the levels of chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) is a vital component of water quality management, which ensures that urban drinking water is safe from harmful algal blooms. This study developed a model to predict Chl-a levels in the Yuqiao Reservoir (Tianjin, China) biweekly using water quality and meteorological data from 1999-2012. First, six artificial neural networks (ANNs) and two non-ANN methods (principal component analysis and the support vector regression model) were compared to determine the appropriate training principle. Subsequently, three predictors with different input variables were developed to examine the feasibility of incorporating meteorological factors into Chl-a prediction, which usually only uses water quality data. Finally, a sensitivity analysis was performed to examine how the Chl-a predictor reacts to changes in input variables. The results were as follows: first, ANN is a powerful predictive alternative to the traditional modeling techniques used for Chl-a prediction. The back program (BP) model yields slightly better results than all other ANNs, with the normalized mean square error (NMSE), the correlation coefficient (Corr), and the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (NSE) at 0.003 mg/l, 0.880 and 0.754, respectively, in the testing period. Second, the incorporation of meteorological data greatly improved Chl-a prediction compared to models solely using water quality factors or meteorological data; the correlation coefficient increased from 0.574-0.686 to 0.880 when meteorological data were included. Finally, the Chl-a predictor is more sensitive to air pressure and pH compared to other water quality and meteorological variables.

  12. Direct numerical simulation of variable surface tension flows using a Volume-of-Fluid method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seric, Ivana; Afkhami, Shahriar; Kondic, Lou

    2018-01-01

    We develop a general methodology for the inclusion of a variable surface tension coefficient into a Volume-of-Fluid based Navier-Stokes solver. This new numerical model provides a robust and accurate method for computing the surface gradients directly by finding the tangent directions on the interface using height functions. The implementation is applicable to both temperature and concentration dependent surface tension coefficient, along with the setups involving a large jump in the temperature between the fluid and its surrounding, as well as the situations where the concentration should be strictly confined to the fluid domain, such as the mixing of fluids with different surface tension coefficients. We demonstrate the applicability of our method to the thermocapillary migration of bubbles and the coalescence of drops characterized by a different surface tension coefficient.

  13. An Application of Calculus: Optimum Parabolic Path Problem

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Atasever, Merve; Pakdemirli, Mehmet; Yurtsever, Hasan Ali

    2009-01-01

    A practical and technological application of calculus problem is posed to motivate freshman students or junior high school students. A variable coefficient of friction is used in modelling air friction. The case in which the coefficient of friction is a decreasing function of altitude is considered. The optimum parabolic path for a flying object…

  14. N-Soliton Solution and Soliton Resonances for the (2+1)-Dimensional Inhomogeneous Gardner Equation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Xin; Geng, Xian-Guo

    2017-08-01

    We derive the Lax pair and Darboux transformation for the (2+1)-dimensional inhomogeneous Gardner equation via the two-singular manifold method from Painlevé analysis. N-soliton solution in a compact determinant representation of Grammian type is presented. As an application, dynamic properties of the bright and dark soliton solutions under periodic and parabolic oscillations up to second order are shown. Resonant behaviors of two bright and two dark solitons are studied, and asymptotic analysis of the corresponding resonant bright and dark two-soliton solutions are performed, respectively. Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No. 11331008 and China Postdoctoral Science Foundation Funded Sixtieth Batches (2016M602252)

  15. Inventory implications of using sampling variances in estimation of growth model coefficients

    Treesearch

    Albert R. Stage; William R. Wykoff

    2000-01-01

    Variables based on stand densities or stocking have sampling errors that depend on the relation of tree size to plot size and on the spatial structure of the population, ignoring the sampling errors of such variables, which include most measures of competition used in both distance-dependent and distance-independent growth models, can bias the predictions obtained from...

  16. Drag coefficient Variability and Thermospheric models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moe, Kenneth

    Satellite drag coefficients depend upon a variety of factors: The shape of the satellite, its altitude, the eccentricity of its orbit, the temperature and mean molecular mass of the ambient atmosphere, and the time in the sunspot cycle. At altitudes where the mean free path of the atmospheric molecules is large compared to the dimensions of the satellite, the drag coefficients can be determined from the theory of free-molecule flow. The dependence on altitude is caused by the concentration of atomic oxygen which plays an important role by its ability to adsorb on the satellite surface and thereby affect the energy loss of molecules striking the surface. The eccentricity of the orbit determines the satellite velocity at perigee, and therefore the energy of the incident molecules relative to the energy of adsorption of atomic oxygen atoms on the surface. The temperature of the ambient atmosphere determines the extent to which the random thermal motion of the molecules influences the momentum transfer to the satellite. The time in the sunspot cycle affects the ambient temperature as well as the concentration of atomic oxygen at a particular altitude. Tables and graphs will be used to illustrate the variability of drag coefficients. Before there were any measurements of gas-surface interactions in orbit, Izakov and Cook independently made an excellent estimate that the drag coefficient of satellites of compact shape would be 2.2. That numerical value, independent of altitude, was used by Jacchia to construct his model from the early measurements of satellite drag. Consequently, there is an altitude dependent bias in the model. From the sparce orbital experiments that have been done, we know that the molecules which strike satellite surfaces rebound in a diffuse angular distribution with an energy loss given by the energy accommodation coefficient. As more evidence accumulates on the energy loss, more realistic drag coefficients are being calculated. These improved drag coefficients help evaluate the biases in present models. Moreover, they make possible the derivation of accurate densities from accelerometer measurements.

  17. A multivariable model for predicting the frictional behaviour and hydration of the human skin.

    PubMed

    Veijgen, N K; van der Heide, E; Masen, M A

    2013-08-01

    The frictional characteristics of skin-object interactions are important when handling objects, in the assessment of perception and comfort of products and materials and in the origins and prevention of skin injuries. In this study, based on statistical methods, a quantitative model is developed that describes the friction behaviour of human skin as a function of the subject characteristics, contact conditions, the properties of the counter material as well as environmental conditions. Although the frictional behaviour of human skin is a multivariable problem, in literature the variables that are associated with skin friction have been studied using univariable methods. In this work, multivariable models for the static and dynamic coefficients of friction as well as for the hydration of the skin are presented. A total of 634 skin-friction measurements were performed using a recently developed tribometer. Using a statistical analysis, previously defined potential influential variables were linked to the static and dynamic coefficient of friction and to the hydration of the skin, resulting in three predictive quantitative models that descibe the friction behaviour and the hydration of human skin respectively. Increased dynamic coefficients of friction were obtained from older subjects, on the index finger, with materials with a higher surface energy at higher room temperatures, whereas lower dynamic coefficients of friction were obtained at lower skin temperatures, on the temple with rougher contact materials. The static coefficient of friction increased with higher skin hydration, increasing age, on the index finger, with materials with a higher surface energy and at higher ambient temperatures. The hydration of the skin was associated with the skin temperature, anatomical location, presence of hair on the skin and the relative air humidity. Predictive models have been derived for the static and dynamic coefficient of friction using a multivariable approach. These two coefficients of friction show a strong correlation. Consequently the two multivariable models resemble, with the static coefficient of friction being on average 18% lower than the dynamic coefficient of friction. The multivariable models in this study can be used to describe the data set that was the basis for this study. Care should be taken when generalising these results. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  18. Observability and synchronization of neuron models.

    PubMed

    Aguirre, Luis A; Portes, Leonardo L; Letellier, Christophe

    2017-10-01

    Observability is the property that enables recovering the state of a dynamical system from a reduced number of measured variables. In high-dimensional systems, it is therefore important to make sure that the variable recorded to perform the analysis conveys good observability of the system dynamics. The observability of a network of neuron models depends nontrivially on the observability of the node dynamics and on the topology of the network. The aim of this paper is twofold. First, to perform a study of observability using four well-known neuron models by computing three different observability coefficients. This not only clarifies observability properties of the models but also shows the limitations of applicability of each type of coefficients in the context of such models. Second, to study the emergence of phase synchronization in networks composed of neuron models. This is done performing multivariate singular spectrum analysis which, to the best of the authors' knowledge, has not been used in the context of networks of neuron models. It is shown that it is possible to detect phase synchronization: (i) without having to measure all the state variables, but only one (that provides greatest observability) from each node and (ii) without having to estimate the phase.

  19. Modeling longitudinal data, I: principles of multivariate analysis.

    PubMed

    Ravani, Pietro; Barrett, Brendan; Parfrey, Patrick

    2009-01-01

    Statistical models are used to study the relationship between exposure and disease while accounting for the potential role of other factors' impact on outcomes. This adjustment is useful to obtain unbiased estimates of true effects or to predict future outcomes. Statistical models include a systematic component and an error component. The systematic component explains the variability of the response variable as a function of the predictors and is summarized in the effect estimates (model coefficients). The error element of the model represents the variability in the data unexplained by the model and is used to build measures of precision around the point estimates (confidence intervals).

  20. VALIDITY OF A TWO-DIMENSIONAL MODEL FOR VARIABLE-DENSITY HYDRODYNAMIC CIRCULATION

    EPA Science Inventory

    A three-dimensional model of temperatures and currents has been formulated to assist in the analysis and interpretation of the dynamics of stratified lakes. In this model, nonlinear eddy coefficients for viscosity and conductivities are included. A two-dimensional model (one vert...

  1. QSPR model for bioconcentration factors of nonpolar organic compounds using molecular electronegativity distance vector descriptors.

    PubMed

    Qin, Li-Tang; Liu, Shu-Shen; Liu, Hai-Ling

    2010-02-01

    A five-variable model (model M2) was developed for the bioconcentration factors (BCFs) of nonpolar organic compounds (NPOCs) by using molecular electronegativity distance vector (MEDV) to characterize the structures of NPOCs and variable selection and modeling based on prediction (VSMP) to select the optimum descriptors. The estimated correlation coefficient (r (2)) and the leave-one-out cross-validation correlation coefficients (q (2)) of model M2 were 0.9271 and 0.9171, respectively. The model was externally validated by splitting the whole data set into a representative training set of 85 chemicals and a validation set of 29 chemicals. The results show that the main structural factors influencing the BCFs of NPOCs are -cCc, cCcc, -Cl, and -Br (where "-" refers to a single bond and "c" refers to a conjugated bond). The quantitative structure-property relationship (QSPR) model can effectively predict the BCFs of NPOCs, and the predictions of the model can also extend the current BCF database of experimental values.

  2. Modeling rainfall-runoff process using soft computing techniques

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kisi, Ozgur; Shiri, Jalal; Tombul, Mustafa

    2013-02-01

    Rainfall-runoff process was modeled for a small catchment in Turkey, using 4 years (1987-1991) of measurements of independent variables of rainfall and runoff values. The models used in the study were Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) and Gene Expression Programming (GEP) which are Artificial Intelligence (AI) approaches. The applied models were trained and tested using various combinations of the independent variables. The goodness of fit for the model was evaluated in terms of the coefficient of determination (R2), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), coefficient of efficiency (CE) and scatter index (SI). A comparison was also made between these models and traditional Multi Linear Regression (MLR) model. The study provides evidence that GEP (with RMSE=17.82 l/s, MAE=6.61 l/s, CE=0.72 and R2=0.978) is capable of modeling rainfall-runoff process and is a viable alternative to other applied artificial intelligence and MLR time-series methods.

  3. Prediction of blood-brain partitioning: a model based on molecular electronegativity distance vector descriptors.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Yong-Hong; Xia, Zhi-Ning; Qin, Li-Tang; Liu, Shu-Shen

    2010-09-01

    The objective of this paper is to build a reliable model based on the molecular electronegativity distance vector (MEDV) descriptors for predicting the blood-brain barrier (BBB) permeability and to reveal the effects of the molecular structural segments on the BBB permeability. Using 70 structurally diverse compounds, the partial least squares regression (PLSR) models between the BBB permeability and the MEDV descriptors were developed and validated by the variable selection and modeling based on prediction (VSMP) technique. The estimation ability, stability, and predictive power of a model are evaluated by the estimated correlation coefficient (r), leave-one-out (LOO) cross-validation correlation coefficient (q), and predictive correlation coefficient (R(p)). It has been found that PLSR model has good quality, r=0.9202, q=0.7956, and R(p)=0.6649 for M1 model based on the training set of 57 samples. To search the most important structural factors affecting the BBB permeability of compounds, we performed the values of the variable importance in projection (VIP) analysis for MEDV descriptors. It was found that some structural fragments in compounds, such as -CH(3), -CH(2)-, =CH-, =C, triple bond C-, -CH<, =C<, =N-, -NH-, =O, and -OH, are the most important factors affecting the BBB permeability. (c) 2010. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  4. A stochastic model for density-dependent microwave Snow- and Graupel scattering coefficients of the NOAA JCSDA community radiative transfer model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stegmann, Patrick G.; Tang, Guanglin; Yang, Ping; Johnson, Benjamin T.

    2018-05-01

    A structural model is developed for the single-scattering properties of snow and graupel particles with a strongly heterogeneous morphology and an arbitrary variable mass density. This effort is aimed to provide a mechanism to consider particle mass density variation in the microwave scattering coefficients implemented in the Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM). The stochastic model applies a bicontinuous random medium algorithm to a simple base shape and uses the Finite-Difference-Time-Domain (FDTD) method to compute the single-scattering properties of the resulting complex morphology.

  5. Parameter and model uncertainty in a life-table model for fine particles (PM2.5): a statistical modeling study

    PubMed Central

    Tainio, Marko; Tuomisto, Jouni T; Hänninen, Otto; Ruuskanen, Juhani; Jantunen, Matti J; Pekkanen, Juha

    2007-01-01

    Background The estimation of health impacts involves often uncertain input variables and assumptions which have to be incorporated into the model structure. These uncertainties may have significant effects on the results obtained with model, and, thus, on decision making. Fine particles (PM2.5) are believed to cause major health impacts, and, consequently, uncertainties in their health impact assessment have clear relevance to policy-making. We studied the effects of various uncertain input variables by building a life-table model for fine particles. Methods Life-expectancy of the Helsinki metropolitan area population and the change in life-expectancy due to fine particle exposures were predicted using a life-table model. A number of parameter and model uncertainties were estimated. Sensitivity analysis for input variables was performed by calculating rank-order correlations between input and output variables. The studied model uncertainties were (i) plausibility of mortality outcomes and (ii) lag, and parameter uncertainties (iii) exposure-response coefficients for different mortality outcomes, and (iv) exposure estimates for different age groups. The monetary value of the years-of-life-lost and the relative importance of the uncertainties related to monetary valuation were predicted to compare the relative importance of the monetary valuation on the health effect uncertainties. Results The magnitude of the health effects costs depended mostly on discount rate, exposure-response coefficient, and plausibility of the cardiopulmonary mortality. Other mortality outcomes (lung cancer, other non-accidental and infant mortality) and lag had only minor impact on the output. The results highlight the importance of the uncertainties associated with cardiopulmonary mortality in the fine particle impact assessment when compared with other uncertainties. Conclusion When estimating life-expectancy, the estimates used for cardiopulmonary exposure-response coefficient, discount rate, and plausibility require careful assessment, while complicated lag estimates can be omitted without this having any major effect on the results. PMID:17714598

  6. Parameter and model uncertainty in a life-table model for fine particles (PM2.5): a statistical modeling study.

    PubMed

    Tainio, Marko; Tuomisto, Jouni T; Hänninen, Otto; Ruuskanen, Juhani; Jantunen, Matti J; Pekkanen, Juha

    2007-08-23

    The estimation of health impacts involves often uncertain input variables and assumptions which have to be incorporated into the model structure. These uncertainties may have significant effects on the results obtained with model, and, thus, on decision making. Fine particles (PM2.5) are believed to cause major health impacts, and, consequently, uncertainties in their health impact assessment have clear relevance to policy-making. We studied the effects of various uncertain input variables by building a life-table model for fine particles. Life-expectancy of the Helsinki metropolitan area population and the change in life-expectancy due to fine particle exposures were predicted using a life-table model. A number of parameter and model uncertainties were estimated. Sensitivity analysis for input variables was performed by calculating rank-order correlations between input and output variables. The studied model uncertainties were (i) plausibility of mortality outcomes and (ii) lag, and parameter uncertainties (iii) exposure-response coefficients for different mortality outcomes, and (iv) exposure estimates for different age groups. The monetary value of the years-of-life-lost and the relative importance of the uncertainties related to monetary valuation were predicted to compare the relative importance of the monetary valuation on the health effect uncertainties. The magnitude of the health effects costs depended mostly on discount rate, exposure-response coefficient, and plausibility of the cardiopulmonary mortality. Other mortality outcomes (lung cancer, other non-accidental and infant mortality) and lag had only minor impact on the output. The results highlight the importance of the uncertainties associated with cardiopulmonary mortality in the fine particle impact assessment when compared with other uncertainties. When estimating life-expectancy, the estimates used for cardiopulmonary exposure-response coefficient, discount rate, and plausibility require careful assessment, while complicated lag estimates can be omitted without this having any major effect on the results.

  7. Stepwise multiple regression method of greenhouse gas emission modeling in the energy sector in Poland.

    PubMed

    Kolasa-Wiecek, Alicja

    2015-04-01

    The energy sector in Poland is the source of 81% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Poland, among other European Union countries, occupies a leading position with regard to coal consumption. Polish energy sector actively participates in efforts to reduce GHG emissions to the atmosphere, through a gradual decrease of the share of coal in the fuel mix and development of renewable energy sources. All evidence which completes the knowledge about issues related to GHG emissions is a valuable source of information. The article presents the results of modeling of GHG emissions which are generated by the energy sector in Poland. For a better understanding of the quantitative relationship between total consumption of primary energy and greenhouse gas emission, multiple stepwise regression model was applied. The modeling results of CO2 emissions demonstrate a high relationship (0.97) with the hard coal consumption variable. Adjustment coefficient of the model to actual data is high and equal to 95%. The backward step regression model, in the case of CH4 emission, indicated the presence of hard coal (0.66), peat and fuel wood (0.34), solid waste fuels, as well as other sources (-0.64) as the most important variables. The adjusted coefficient is suitable and equals R2=0.90. For N2O emission modeling the obtained coefficient of determination is low and equal to 43%. A significant variable influencing the amount of N2O emission is the peat and wood fuel consumption. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  8. A prediction model of compressor with variable-geometry diffuser based on elliptic equation and partial least squares

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Chuanlei; Wang, Yinyan; Wang, Hechun

    2018-01-01

    To achieve a much more extensive intake air flow range of the diesel engine, a variable-geometry compressor (VGC) is introduced into a turbocharged diesel engine. However, due to the variable diffuser vane angle (DVA), the prediction for the performance of the VGC becomes more difficult than for a normal compressor. In the present study, a prediction model comprising an elliptical equation and a PLS (partial least-squares) model was proposed to predict the performance of the VGC. The speed lines of the pressure ratio map and the efficiency map were fitted with the elliptical equation, and the coefficients of the elliptical equation were introduced into the PLS model to build the polynomial relationship between the coefficients and the relative speed, the DVA. Further, the maximal order of the polynomial was investigated in detail to reduce the number of sub-coefficients and achieve acceptable fit accuracy simultaneously. The prediction model was validated with sample data and in order to present the superiority of compressor performance prediction, the prediction results of this model were compared with those of the look-up table and back-propagation neural networks (BPNNs). The validation and comparison results show that the prediction accuracy of the new developed model is acceptable, and this model is much more suitable than the look-up table and the BPNN methods under the same condition in VGC performance prediction. Moreover, the new developed prediction model provides a novel and effective prediction solution for the VGC and can be used to improve the accuracy of the thermodynamic model for turbocharged diesel engines in the future. PMID:29410849

  9. A prediction model of compressor with variable-geometry diffuser based on elliptic equation and partial least squares.

    PubMed

    Li, Xu; Yang, Chuanlei; Wang, Yinyan; Wang, Hechun

    2018-01-01

    To achieve a much more extensive intake air flow range of the diesel engine, a variable-geometry compressor (VGC) is introduced into a turbocharged diesel engine. However, due to the variable diffuser vane angle (DVA), the prediction for the performance of the VGC becomes more difficult than for a normal compressor. In the present study, a prediction model comprising an elliptical equation and a PLS (partial least-squares) model was proposed to predict the performance of the VGC. The speed lines of the pressure ratio map and the efficiency map were fitted with the elliptical equation, and the coefficients of the elliptical equation were introduced into the PLS model to build the polynomial relationship between the coefficients and the relative speed, the DVA. Further, the maximal order of the polynomial was investigated in detail to reduce the number of sub-coefficients and achieve acceptable fit accuracy simultaneously. The prediction model was validated with sample data and in order to present the superiority of compressor performance prediction, the prediction results of this model were compared with those of the look-up table and back-propagation neural networks (BPNNs). The validation and comparison results show that the prediction accuracy of the new developed model is acceptable, and this model is much more suitable than the look-up table and the BPNN methods under the same condition in VGC performance prediction. Moreover, the new developed prediction model provides a novel and effective prediction solution for the VGC and can be used to improve the accuracy of the thermodynamic model for turbocharged diesel engines in the future.

  10. The subtle danger of symmetry restrictions in time series regressions, with application to fertility models.

    PubMed

    Haynes, S E

    1983-10-01

    It is widely known that linear restrictions involve bias. What is not known is that some linear restrictions are especially dangerous for hypothesis testing. For some, the expected value of the restricted coefficient does not lie between (among) the true unconstrained coefficients, which implies that the estimate is not a simple average of these coefficients. In this paper, the danger is examined regarding the additive linear restriction almost universally imposed in statistical research--the restriction of symmetry. Symmetry implies that the response of the dependent variable to a unit decrease in an expanatory variable is identical, but of opposite sign, to the response to a unit increase. The 1st section of the paper demonstrates theoretically that a coefficient restricted by symmetry (unlike coefficients embodying other additive restrictions) is not a simple average of the unconstrained coefficients because the relevant interacted variables are inversly correlated by definition. The next section shows that, under the restriction of symmetry, fertility in Finland from 1885-1925 appears to respond in a prolonged manner to infant mortality (significant and positive with a lag of 4-6 years), suggesting a response to expected deaths. However, unscontrained estimates indicate that this finding is spurious. When the restriction is relaxed, the dominant response is rapid (significant and positive with a lag of 1-2 years) and stronger for declines in mortality, supporting an aymmetric response to actual deaths. For 2 reasons, the danger of the symmetry restriction may be especially pervasive. 1st, unlike most other linear constraints, symmetry is passively imposed merely by ignoring the possibility of asymmetry. 2nd, modles in a wide range of fields--including macroeconomics (e.g., demand for money, consumption, and investment models, and the Phillips curve), international economics (e.g., intervention models of central banks), and labor economics (e.g., sticky wage models)--predict asymmetry. The conclusion of the study is that, to avoid spurious hypothesis testing, empirical research should systematically test for asymmetry, especially when predicted by theory.

  11. Meteorological adjustment of yearly mean values for air pollutant concentration comparison

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sidik, S. M.; Neustadter, H. E.

    1976-01-01

    Using multiple linear regression analysis, models which estimate mean concentrations of Total Suspended Particulate (TSP), sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen dioxide as a function of several meteorologic variables, two rough economic indicators, and a simple trend in time are studied. Meteorologic data were obtained and do not include inversion heights. The goodness of fit of the estimated models is partially reflected by the squared coefficient of multiple correlation which indicates that, at the various sampling stations, the models accounted for about 23 to 47 percent of the total variance of the observed TSP concentrations. If the resulting model equations are used in place of simple overall means of the observed concentrations, there is about a 20 percent improvement in either: (1) predicting mean concentrations for specified meteorological conditions; or (2) adjusting successive yearly averages to allow for comparisons devoid of meteorological effects. An application to source identification is presented using regression coefficients of wind velocity predictor variables.

  12. Incorporation of a Variable Discharge Coefficient for the Primary Orifice into the Benet Labs Recoil Analysis Model via Results from Quasi-Steady State Simulations Using Computational Fluid Dynamics

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2008-03-01

    Appendix 82 MatLab© Cd Calculator Routine FORTRAN© Subroutine of the Variable Cd Model ii ABBREVIATIONS & ACRONYMS Cd...Figure 29. Overview Flowchart of Benét Labs Recoil Analysis Code Figure 30. Overview Flowchart of Recoil Brake Subroutine Figure 31...Detail Flowchart of Recoil Pressure/Force Calculations Figure 32. Detail Flowchart of Variable Cd Subroutine Figure 33. Simulated Brake

  13. Analyzing disparity trends for health care insurance coverage among non-elderly adults in the US: evidence from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, 1993-2009.

    PubMed

    Assaf, Shireen; Campostrini, Stefano; Di Novi, Cinzia; Xu, Fang; Gotway Crawford, Carol

    2017-04-01

    To explore the changing disparities in access to health care insurance in the United States using time-varying coefficient models. Secondary data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) from 1993 to 2009 was used. A time-varying coefficient model was constructed using a binary outcome of no enrollment in health insurance plan versus enrolled. The independent variables included age, sex, education, income, work status, race, and number of health conditions. Smooth functions of odds ratios and time were used to produce odds ratio plots. Significant time-varying coefficients were found for all the independent variables with the odds ratio plots showing changing trends except for a constant line for the categories of male, student, and having three health conditions. Some categories showed decreasing disparities, such as the income categories. However, some categories had increasing disparities in health insurance enrollment such as the education and race categories. As the Affordable Care Act is being gradually implemented, studies are needed to provide baseline information about disparities in access to health insurance, in order to gauge any changes in health insurance access. The use of time-varying coefficient models with BRFSS data can be useful in accomplishing this task.

  14. Robust Timing Synchronization in Aeronautical Mobile Communication Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Xiong, Fu-Qin; Pinchak, Stanley

    2004-01-01

    This work details a study of robust synchronization schemes suitable for satellite to mobile aeronautical applications. A new scheme, the Modified Sliding Window Synchronizer (MSWS), is devised and compared with existing schemes, including the traditional Early-Late Gate Synchronizer (ELGS), the Gardner Zero-Crossing Detector (GZCD), and the Sliding Window Synchronizer (SWS). Performance of the synchronization schemes is evaluated by a set of metrics that indicate performance in digital communications systems. The metrics are convergence time, mean square phase error (or root mean-square phase error), lowest SNR for locking, initial frequency offset performance, midstream frequency offset performance, and system complexity. The performance of the synchronizers is evaluated by means of Matlab simulation models. A simulation platform is devised to model the satellite to mobile aeronautical channel, consisting of a Quadrature Phase Shift Keying modulator, an additive white Gaussian noise channel, and a demodulator front end. Simulation results show that the MSWS provides the most robust performance at the cost of system complexity. The GZCD provides a good tradeoff between robustness and system complexity for communication systems that require high symbol rates or low overall system costs. The ELGS has a high system complexity despite its average performance. Overall, the SWS, originally designed for multi-carrier systems, performs very poorly in single-carrier communications systems. Table 5.1 in Section 5 provides a ranking of each of the synchronization schemes in terms of the metrics set forth in Section 4.1. Details of comparison are given in Section 5. Based on the results presented in Table 5, it is safe to say that the most robust synchronization scheme examined in this work is the high-sample-rate Modified Sliding Window Synchronizer. A close second is its low-sample-rate cousin. The tradeoff between complexity and lowest mean-square phase error determines the rankings of the Gardner Zero-Crossing Detector and both versions of the Early-Late Gate Synchronizer. The least robust models are the high and low-sample-rate Sliding Window Synchronizers. Consequently, the recommended replacement synchronizer for NASA's Advanced Air Transportation Technologies mobile aeronautical communications system is the high-sample-rate Modified Sliding Window Synchronizer. By incorporating this synchronizer into their system, NASA can be assured that their system will be operational in extremely adverse conditions. The quick convergence time of the MSWS should allow the use of high-level protocols. However, if NASA feels that reduced system complexity is the most important aspect of their replacement synchronizer, the Gardner Zero-Crossing Detector would be the best choice.

  15. Penalized spline estimation for functional coefficient regression models.

    PubMed

    Cao, Yanrong; Lin, Haiqun; Wu, Tracy Z; Yu, Yan

    2010-04-01

    The functional coefficient regression models assume that the regression coefficients vary with some "threshold" variable, providing appreciable flexibility in capturing the underlying dynamics in data and avoiding the so-called "curse of dimensionality" in multivariate nonparametric estimation. We first investigate the estimation, inference, and forecasting for the functional coefficient regression models with dependent observations via penalized splines. The P-spline approach, as a direct ridge regression shrinkage type global smoothing method, is computationally efficient and stable. With established fixed-knot asymptotics, inference is readily available. Exact inference can be obtained for fixed smoothing parameter λ, which is most appealing for finite samples. Our penalized spline approach gives an explicit model expression, which also enables multi-step-ahead forecasting via simulations. Furthermore, we examine different methods of choosing the important smoothing parameter λ: modified multi-fold cross-validation (MCV), generalized cross-validation (GCV), and an extension of empirical bias bandwidth selection (EBBS) to P-splines. In addition, we implement smoothing parameter selection using mixed model framework through restricted maximum likelihood (REML) for P-spline functional coefficient regression models with independent observations. The P-spline approach also easily allows different smoothness for different functional coefficients, which is enabled by assigning different penalty λ accordingly. We demonstrate the proposed approach by both simulation examples and a real data application.

  16. Model aerodynamic test results for two variable cycle engine coannular exhaust systems at simulated takeoff and cruise conditions. Comprehensive data report. Volume 3: Graphical data book 1

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nelson, D. P.

    1981-01-01

    A graphical presentation of the aerodynamic data acquired during coannular nozzle performance wind tunnel tests is given. The graphical data consist of plots of nozzle gross thrust coefficient, fan nozzle discharge coefficient, and primary nozzle discharge coefficient. Normalized model component static pressure distributions are presented as a function of primary total pressure, fan total pressure, and ambient static pressure for selected operating conditions. In addition, the supersonic cruise configuration data include plots of nozzle efficiency and secondary-to-fan total pressure pumping characteristics. Supersonic and subsonic cruise data are given.

  17. Mapping the spatial pattern of temperate forest above ground biomass by integrating airborne lidar with Radarsat-2 imagery via geostatistical models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Wang; Niu, Zheng; Gao, Shuai; Wang, Cheng

    2014-11-01

    Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) are two competitive active remote sensing techniques in forest above ground biomass estimation, which is important for forest management and global climate change study. This study aims to further explore their capabilities in temperate forest above ground biomass (AGB) estimation by emphasizing the spatial auto-correlation of variables obtained from these two remote sensing tools, which is a usually overlooked aspect in remote sensing applications to vegetation studies. Remote sensing variables including airborne LiDAR metrics, backscattering coefficient for different SAR polarizations and their ratio variables for Radarsat-2 imagery were calculated. First, simple linear regression models (SLR) was established between the field-estimated above ground biomass and the remote sensing variables. Pearson's correlation coefficient (R2) was used to find which LiDAR metric showed the most significant correlation with the regression residuals and could be selected as co-variable in regression co-kriging (RCoKrig). Second, regression co-kriging was conducted by choosing the regression residuals as dependent variable and the LiDAR metric (Hmean) with highest R2 as co-variable. Third, above ground biomass over the study area was estimated using SLR model and RCoKrig model, respectively. The results for these two models were validated using the same ground points. Results showed that both of these two methods achieved satisfactory prediction accuracy, while regression co-kriging showed the lower estimation error. It is proved that regression co-kriging model is feasible and effective in mapping the spatial pattern of AGB in the temperate forest using Radarsat-2 data calibrated by airborne LiDAR metrics.

  18. Liver fibrosis: stretched exponential model outperforms mono-exponential and bi-exponential models of diffusion-weighted MRI.

    PubMed

    Seo, Nieun; Chung, Yong Eun; Park, Yung Nyun; Kim, Eunju; Hwang, Jinwoo; Kim, Myeong-Jin

    2018-07-01

    To compare the ability of diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) parameters acquired from three different models for the diagnosis of hepatic fibrosis (HF). Ninety-five patients underwent DWI using nine b values at 3 T magnetic resonance. The hepatic apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) from a mono-exponential model, the true diffusion coefficient (D t ), pseudo-diffusion coefficient (D p ) and perfusion fraction (f) from a biexponential model, and the distributed diffusion coefficient (DDC) and intravoxel heterogeneity index (α) from a stretched exponential model were compared with the pathological HF stage. For the stretched exponential model, parameters were also obtained using a dataset of six b values (DDC # , α # ). The diagnostic performances of the parameters for HF staging were evaluated with Obuchowski measures and receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis. The measurement variability of DWI parameters was evaluated using the coefficient of variation (CoV). Diagnostic accuracy for HF staging was highest for DDC # (Obuchowski measures, 0.770 ± 0.03), and it was significantly higher than that of ADC (0.597 ± 0.05, p < 0.001), D t (0.575 ± 0.05, p < 0.001) and f (0.669 ± 0.04, p = 0.035). The parameters from stretched exponential DWI and D p showed higher areas under the ROC curve (AUCs) for determining significant fibrosis (≥F2) and cirrhosis (F = 4) than other parameters. However, D p showed significantly higher measurement variability (CoV, 74.6%) than DDC # (16.1%, p < 0.001) and α # (15.1%, p < 0.001). Stretched exponential DWI is a promising method for HF staging with good diagnostic performance and fewer b-value acquisitions, allowing shorter acquisition time. • Stretched exponential DWI provides a precise and accurate model for HF staging. • Stretched exponential DWI parameters are more reliable than D p from bi-exponential DWI model • Acquisition of six b values is sufficient to obtain accurate DDC and α.

  19. The importance of regional models in assessing canine cancer incidences in Switzerland

    PubMed Central

    Leyk, Stefan; Brunsdon, Christopher; Graf, Ramona; Pospischil, Andreas; Fabrikant, Sara Irina

    2018-01-01

    Fitting canine cancer incidences through a conventional regression model assumes constant statistical relationships across the study area in estimating the model coefficients. However, it is often more realistic to consider that these relationships may vary over space. Such a condition, known as spatial non-stationarity, implies that the model coefficients need to be estimated locally. In these kinds of local models, the geographic scale, or spatial extent, employed for coefficient estimation may also have a pervasive influence. This is because important variations in the local model coefficients across geographic scales may impact the understanding of local relationships. In this study, we fitted canine cancer incidences across Swiss municipal units through multiple regional models. We computed diagnostic summaries across the different regional models, and contrasted them with the diagnostics of the conventional regression model, using value-by-alpha maps and scalograms. The results of this comparative assessment enabled us to identify variations in the goodness-of-fit and coefficient estimates. We detected spatially non-stationary relationships, in particular, for the variables related to biological risk factors. These variations in the model coefficients were more important at small geographic scales, making a case for the need to model canine cancer incidences locally in contrast to more conventional global approaches. However, we contend that prior to undertaking local modeling efforts, a deeper understanding of the effects of geographic scale is needed to better characterize and identify local model relationships. PMID:29652921

  20. The importance of regional models in assessing canine cancer incidences in Switzerland.

    PubMed

    Boo, Gianluca; Leyk, Stefan; Brunsdon, Christopher; Graf, Ramona; Pospischil, Andreas; Fabrikant, Sara Irina

    2018-01-01

    Fitting canine cancer incidences through a conventional regression model assumes constant statistical relationships across the study area in estimating the model coefficients. However, it is often more realistic to consider that these relationships may vary over space. Such a condition, known as spatial non-stationarity, implies that the model coefficients need to be estimated locally. In these kinds of local models, the geographic scale, or spatial extent, employed for coefficient estimation may also have a pervasive influence. This is because important variations in the local model coefficients across geographic scales may impact the understanding of local relationships. In this study, we fitted canine cancer incidences across Swiss municipal units through multiple regional models. We computed diagnostic summaries across the different regional models, and contrasted them with the diagnostics of the conventional regression model, using value-by-alpha maps and scalograms. The results of this comparative assessment enabled us to identify variations in the goodness-of-fit and coefficient estimates. We detected spatially non-stationary relationships, in particular, for the variables related to biological risk factors. These variations in the model coefficients were more important at small geographic scales, making a case for the need to model canine cancer incidences locally in contrast to more conventional global approaches. However, we contend that prior to undertaking local modeling efforts, a deeper understanding of the effects of geographic scale is needed to better characterize and identify local model relationships.

  1. Gender differences in self-rated and partner-rated multiple intelligences: a Portuguese replication.

    PubMed

    Neto, Félix; Furnham, Adrian

    2006-11-01

    The authors examined gender differences and the influence of intelligence quotient (IQ) test experience in the self and partner estimation of H. Gardner's (1999) 10 multiple intelligences. Portuguese students (N = 190) completed a brief questionnaire developed on the basis of an instrument used in previous research (A. Furnham, 2001). Three of the 10 self-estimates yielded significant gender differences. Men believed they were more intelligent than were women on mathematical (logical), spatial, and naturalistic intelligence. Those who had previously completed an IQ test gave higher self-estimates on 2 of the 10 estimates. Factor analysis of the 10 and then 8 self-estimated scores did not confirm Gardner's 3-factor classification of multiple intelligences in this sample.

  2. Impact of volunteer-related and methodology-related factors on the reproducibility of brachial artery flow-mediated vasodilation: analysis of 672 individual repeated measurements.

    PubMed

    van Mil, Anke C C M; Greyling, Arno; Zock, Peter L; Geleijnse, Johanna M; Hopman, Maria T; Mensink, Ronald P; Reesink, Koen D; Green, Daniel J; Ghiadoni, Lorenzo; Thijssen, Dick H

    2016-09-01

    Brachial artery flow-mediated dilation (FMD) is a popular technique to examine endothelial function in humans. Identifying volunteer and methodological factors related to variation in FMD is important to improve measurement accuracy and applicability. Volunteer-related and methodology-related parameters were collected in 672 volunteers from eight affiliated centres worldwide who underwent repeated measures of FMD. All centres adopted contemporary expert-consensus guidelines for FMD assessment. After calculating the coefficient of variation (%) of the FMD for each individual, we constructed quartiles (n = 168 per quartile). Based on two regression models (volunteer-related factors and methodology-related factors), statistically significant components of these two models were added to a final regression model (calculated as β-coefficient and R). This allowed us to identify factors that independently contributed to the variation in FMD%. Median coefficient of variation was 17.5%, with healthy volunteers demonstrating a coefficient of variation 9.3%. Regression models revealed age (β = 0.248, P < 0.001), hypertension (β = 0.104, P < 0.001), dyslipidemia (β = 0.331, P < 0.001), time between measurements (β = 0.318, P < 0.001), lab experience (β = -0.133, P < 0.001) and baseline FMD% (β = 0.082, P < 0.05) as contributors to the coefficient of variation. After including all significant factors in the final model, we found that time between measurements, hypertension, baseline FMD% and lab experience with FMD independently predicted brachial artery variability (total R = 0.202). Although FMD% showed good reproducibility, larger variation was observed in conditions with longer time between measurements, hypertension, less experience and lower baseline FMD%. Accounting for these factors may improve FMD% variability.

  3. Impact of the calibration period on the conceptual rainfall-runoff model parameter estimates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Todorovic, Andrijana; Plavsic, Jasna

    2015-04-01

    A conceptual rainfall-runoff model is defined by its structure and parameters, which are commonly inferred through model calibration. Parameter estimates depend on objective function(s), optimisation method, and calibration period. Model calibration over different periods may result in dissimilar parameter estimates, while model efficiency decreases outside calibration period. Problem of model (parameter) transferability, which conditions reliability of hydrologic simulations, has been investigated for decades. In this paper, dependence of the parameter estimates and model performance on calibration period is analysed. The main question that is addressed is: are there any changes in optimised parameters and model efficiency that can be linked to the changes in hydrologic or meteorological variables (flow, precipitation and temperature)? Conceptual, semi-distributed HBV-light model is calibrated over five-year periods shifted by a year (sliding time windows). Length of the calibration periods is selected to enable identification of all parameters. One water year of model warm-up precedes every simulation, which starts with the beginning of a water year. The model is calibrated using the built-in GAP optimisation algorithm. The objective function used for calibration is composed of Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient for flows and logarithms of flows, and volumetric error, all of which participate in the composite objective function with approximately equal weights. Same prior parameter ranges are used in all simulations. The model is calibrated against flows observed at the Slovac stream gauge on the Kolubara River in Serbia (records from 1954 to 2013). There are no trends in precipitation nor in flows, however, there is a statistically significant increasing trend in temperatures at this catchment. Parameter variability across the calibration periods is quantified in terms of standard deviations of normalised parameters, enabling detection of the most variable parameters. Correlation coefficients among optimised model parameters and total precipitation P, mean temperature T and mean flow Q are calculated to give an insight into parameter dependence on the hydrometeorological drivers. The results reveal high sensitivity of almost all model parameters towards calibration period. The highest variability is displayed by the refreezing coefficient, water holding capacity, and temperature gradient. The only statistically significant (decreasing) trend is detected in the evapotranspiration reduction threshold. Statistically significant correlation is detected between the precipitation gradient and precipitation depth, and between the time-area histogram base and flows. All other correlations are not statistically significant, implying that changes in optimised parameters cannot generally be linked to the changes in P, T or Q. As for the model performance, the model reproduces the observed runoff satisfactorily, though the runoff is slightly overestimated in wet periods. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE) ranges from 0.44 to 0.79. Higher NSE values are obtained over wetter periods, what is supported by statistically significant correlation between NSE and flows. Overall, no systematic variations in parameters or in model performance are detected. Parameter variability may therefore rather be attributed to errors in data or inadequacies in the model structure. Further research is required to examine the impact of the calibration strategy or model structure on the variability in optimised parameters in time.

  4. Evaluating secular acceleration in geomagnetic field model GRIMM-3

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lesur, V.; Wardinski, I.

    2012-12-01

    Secular acceleration of the magnetic field is the rate of change of its secular variation. One of the main results of studying magnetic data collected by the German survey satellite CHAMP was the mapping of field acceleration and its evolution in time. Questions remain about the accuracy of the modeled acceleration and the effect of the applied regularization processes. We have evaluated to what extent the regularization affects the temporal variability of the Gauss coefficients. We also obtained results of temporal variability of the Gauss coefficients where alternative approaches to the usual smoothing norms have been applied for regularization. Except for the dipole term, the secular acceleration of the Gauss coefficients is fairly well described up to spherical harmonic degree 5 or 6. There is no clear evidence from observatory data that the spectrum of this acceleration is underestimated at the Earth surface. Assuming a resistive mantle, the observed acceleration supports a characteristic time scale for the secular variation of the order of 11 years.

  5. Distance correlation methods for discovering associations in large astrophysical databases

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Martínez-Gómez, Elizabeth; Richards, Mercedes T.; Richards, Donald St. P., E-mail: elizabeth.martinez@itam.mx, E-mail: mrichards@astro.psu.edu, E-mail: richards@stat.psu.edu

    2014-01-20

    High-dimensional, large-sample astrophysical databases of galaxy clusters, such as the Chandra Deep Field South COMBO-17 database, provide measurements on many variables for thousands of galaxies and a range of redshifts. Current understanding of galaxy formation and evolution rests sensitively on relationships between different astrophysical variables; hence an ability to detect and verify associations or correlations between variables is important in astrophysical research. In this paper, we apply a recently defined statistical measure called the distance correlation coefficient, which can be used to identify new associations and correlations between astrophysical variables. The distance correlation coefficient applies to variables of any dimension,more » can be used to determine smaller sets of variables that provide equivalent astrophysical information, is zero only when variables are independent, and is capable of detecting nonlinear associations that are undetectable by the classical Pearson correlation coefficient. Hence, the distance correlation coefficient provides more information than the Pearson coefficient. We analyze numerous pairs of variables in the COMBO-17 database with the distance correlation method and with the maximal information coefficient. We show that the Pearson coefficient can be estimated with higher accuracy from the corresponding distance correlation coefficient than from the maximal information coefficient. For given values of the Pearson coefficient, the distance correlation method has a greater ability than the maximal information coefficient to resolve astrophysical data into highly concentrated horseshoe- or V-shapes, which enhances classification and pattern identification. These results are observed over a range of redshifts beyond the local universe and for galaxies from elliptical to spiral.« less

  6. An Improved Method of Predicting Extinction Coefficients for the Determination of Protein Concentration.

    PubMed

    Hilario, Eric C; Stern, Alan; Wang, Charlie H; Vargas, Yenny W; Morgan, Charles J; Swartz, Trevor E; Patapoff, Thomas W

    2017-01-01

    Concentration determination is an important method of protein characterization required in the development of protein therapeutics. There are many known methods for determining the concentration of a protein solution, but the easiest to implement in a manufacturing setting is absorption spectroscopy in the ultraviolet region. For typical proteins composed of the standard amino acids, absorption at wavelengths near 280 nm is due to the three amino acid chromophores tryptophan, tyrosine, and phenylalanine in addition to a contribution from disulfide bonds. According to the Beer-Lambert law, absorbance is proportional to concentration and path length, with the proportionality constant being the extinction coefficient. Typically the extinction coefficient of proteins is experimentally determined by measuring a solution absorbance then experimentally determining the concentration, a measurement with some inherent variability depending on the method used. In this study, extinction coefficients were calculated based on the measured absorbance of model compounds of the four amino acid chromophores. These calculated values for an unfolded protein were then compared with an experimental concentration determination based on enzymatic digestion of proteins. The experimentally determined extinction coefficient for the native proteins was consistently found to be 1.05 times the calculated value for the unfolded proteins for a wide range of proteins with good accuracy and precision under well-controlled experimental conditions. The value of 1.05 times the calculated value was termed the predicted extinction coefficient. Statistical analysis shows that the differences between predicted and experimentally determined coefficients are scattered randomly, indicating no systematic bias between the values among the proteins measured. The predicted extinction coefficient was found to be accurate and not subject to the inherent variability of experimental methods. We propose the use of a predicted extinction coefficient for determining the protein concentration of therapeutic proteins starting from early development through the lifecycle of the product. LAY ABSTRACT: Knowing the concentration of a protein in a pharmaceutical solution is important to the drug's development and posology. There are many ways to determine the concentration, but the easiest one to use in a testing lab employs absorption spectroscopy. Absorbance of ultraviolet light by a protein solution is proportional to its concentration and path length; the proportionality constant is the extinction coefficient. The extinction coefficient of a protein therapeutic is usually determined experimentally during early product development and has some inherent method variability. In this study, extinction coefficients of several proteins were calculated based on the measured absorbance of model compounds. These calculated values for an unfolded protein were then compared with experimental concentration determinations based on enzymatic digestion of the proteins. The experimentally determined extinction coefficient for the native protein was 1.05 times the calculated value for the unfolded protein with good accuracy and precision under controlled experimental conditions, so the value of 1.05 times the calculated coefficient was called the predicted extinction coefficient. Comparison of predicted and measured extinction coefficients indicated that the predicted value was very close to the experimentally determined values for the proteins. The predicted extinction coefficient was accurate and removed the variability inherent in experimental methods. © PDA, Inc. 2017.

  7. Measured acoustic properties of variable and low density bulk absorbers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dahl, M. D.; Rice, E. J.

    1985-01-01

    Experimental data were taken to determine the acoustic absorbing properties of uniform low density and layered variable density samples using a bulk absober with a perforated plate facing to hold the material in place. In the layered variable density case, the bulk absorber was packed such that the lowest density layer began at the surface of the sample and progressed to higher density layers deeper inside. The samples were placed in a rectangular duct and measurements were taken using the two microphone method. The data were used to calculate specific acoustic impedances and normal incidence absorption coefficients. Results showed that for uniform density samples the absorption coefficient at low frequencies decreased with increasing density and resonances occurred in the absorption coefficient curve at lower densities. These results were confirmed by a model for uniform density bulk absorbers. Results from layered variable density samples showed that low frequency absorption was the highest when the lowest density possible was packed in the first layer near the exposed surface. The layers of increasing density within the sample had the effect of damping the resonances.

  8. Sensitivity of the reference evapotranspiration to key climatic variables during the growing season in the Ejina oasis northwest China.

    PubMed

    Hou, Lan-Gong; Zou, Song-Bing; Xiao, Hong-Lang; Yang, Yong-Gang

    2013-01-01

    The standardized FAO56 Penman-Monteith model, which has been the most reasonable method in both humid and arid climatic conditions, provides reference evapotranspiration (ETo) estimates for planning and efficient use of agricultural water resources. And sensitivity analysis is important in understanding the relative importance of climatic variables to the variation of reference evapotranspiration. In this study, a non-dimensional relative sensitivity coefficient was employed to predict responses of ETo to perturbations of four climatic variables in the Ejina oasis northwest China. A 20-year historical dataset of daily air temperature, wind speed, relative humidity and daily sunshine duration in the Ejina oasis was used in the analysis. Results have shown that daily sensitivity coefficients exhibited large fluctuations during the growing season, and shortwave radiation was the most sensitive variable in general for the Ejina oasis, followed by air temperature, wind speed and relative humidity. According to this study, the response of ETo can be preferably predicted under perturbation of air temperature, wind speed, relative humidity and shortwave radiation by their sensitivity coefficients.

  9. An Excellent Pilot Model for the Korean Air Force.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1988-12-01

    Address i cirv, state, and ZIP c^-de 10 Source of Funding Numbers Proeram Element No Protect No Task No Work Inn Accession N i Title...undergraduate pilots in the Korean Air Force. ui ^t Accession Fcr • - • - ORAJcI i; U": it : • in .’ H J . m _ . ; . • fr A...Squares (OLS) method. Table 22. RESULTS OF THE REGRESSION MODEL Variables Coefficient Prob>|t| Beta Coefficient Intercept 516. SS7 (56.2S6) APT

  10. Stochastic modeling of phosphorus transport in the Three Gorges Reservoir by incorporating variability associated with the phosphorus partition coefficient

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Huang, Lei; Fang, Hongwei; Xu, Xingya

    Phosphorus (P) fate and transport plays a crucial role in the ecology of rivers and reservoirs in which eutrophication is limited by P. A key uncertainty in models used to help manage P in such systems is the partitioning of P to suspended and bed sediments. By analyzing data from field and laboratory experiments, we stochastically characterize the variability of the partition coefficient (Kd) and derive spatio-temporal solutions for P transport in the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR). We formulate a set of stochastic partial different equations (SPDEs) to simulate P transport by randomly sampling Kd from the measured distributions, tomore » obtain statistical descriptions of the P concentration and retention in the TGR. The correspondence between predicted and observed P concentrations and P retention in the TGR combined with the ability to effectively characterize uncertainty suggests that a model that incorporates the observed variability can better describe P dynamics and more effectively serve as a tool for P management in the system. This study highlights the importance of considering parametric uncertainty in estimating uncertainty/variability associated with simulated P transport.« less

  11. Stochastic modeling of phosphorus transport in the Three Gorges Reservoir by incorporating variability associated with the phosphorus partition coefficient

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Huang, Lei; Fang, Hongwei; Xu, Xingya

    Phosphorus (P) fate and transport plays a crucial role in the ecology of rivers and reservoirs in which eutrophication is limited by P. A key uncertainty in models used to help manage P in such systems is the partitioning of P to suspended and bed sediments. By analyzing data from field and laboratory experiments, we stochastically characterize the variability of the partition coefficient (Kd) and derive spatio-temporal solutions for P transport in the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR). Here, we formulate a set of stochastic partial different equations (SPDEs) to simulate P transport by randomly sampling Kd from the measured distributions,more » to obtain statistical descriptions of the P concentration and retention in the TGR. Furthermore, the correspondence between predicted and observed P concentrations and P retention in the TGR combined with the ability to effectively characterize uncertainty suggests that a model that incorporates the observed variability can better describe P dynamics and more effectively serve as a tool for P management in the system. Our study highlights the importance of considering parametric uncertainty in estimating uncertainty/variability associated with simulated P transport.« less

  12. Stochastic modeling of phosphorus transport in the Three Gorges Reservoir by incorporating variability associated with the phosphorus partition coefficient

    DOE PAGES

    Huang, Lei; Fang, Hongwei; Xu, Xingya; ...

    2017-08-01

    Phosphorus (P) fate and transport plays a crucial role in the ecology of rivers and reservoirs in which eutrophication is limited by P. A key uncertainty in models used to help manage P in such systems is the partitioning of P to suspended and bed sediments. By analyzing data from field and laboratory experiments, we stochastically characterize the variability of the partition coefficient (Kd) and derive spatio-temporal solutions for P transport in the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR). Here, we formulate a set of stochastic partial different equations (SPDEs) to simulate P transport by randomly sampling Kd from the measured distributions,more » to obtain statistical descriptions of the P concentration and retention in the TGR. Furthermore, the correspondence between predicted and observed P concentrations and P retention in the TGR combined with the ability to effectively characterize uncertainty suggests that a model that incorporates the observed variability can better describe P dynamics and more effectively serve as a tool for P management in the system. Our study highlights the importance of considering parametric uncertainty in estimating uncertainty/variability associated with simulated P transport.« less

  13. A critical re-evaluation of the regression model specification in the US D1 EQ-5D value function

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background The EQ-5D is a generic health-related quality of life instrument (five dimensions with three levels, 243 health states), used extensively in cost-utility/cost-effectiveness analyses. EQ-5D health states are assigned values on a scale anchored in perfect health (1) and death (0). The dominant procedure for defining values for EQ-5D health states involves regression modeling. These regression models have typically included a constant term, interpreted as the utility loss associated with any movement away from perfect health. The authors of the United States EQ-5D valuation study replaced this constant with a variable, D1, which corresponds to the number of impaired dimensions beyond the first. The aim of this study was to illustrate how the use of the D1 variable in place of a constant is problematic. Methods We compared the original D1 regression model with a mathematically equivalent model with a constant term. Comparisons included implications for the magnitude and statistical significance of the coefficients, multicollinearity (variance inflation factors, or VIFs), number of calculation steps needed to determine tariff values, and consequences for tariff interpretation. Results Using the D1 variable in place of a constant shifted all dummy variable coefficients away from zero by the value of the constant, greatly increased the multicollinearity of the model (maximum VIF of 113.2 vs. 21.2), and increased the mean number of calculation steps required to determine health state values. Discussion Using the D1 variable in place of a constant constitutes an unnecessary complication of the model, obscures the fact that at least two of the main effect dummy variables are statistically nonsignificant, and complicates and biases interpretation of the tariff algorithm. PMID:22244261

  14. A critical re-evaluation of the regression model specification in the US D1 EQ-5D value function.

    PubMed

    Rand-Hendriksen, Kim; Augestad, Liv A; Dahl, Fredrik A

    2012-01-13

    The EQ-5D is a generic health-related quality of life instrument (five dimensions with three levels, 243 health states), used extensively in cost-utility/cost-effectiveness analyses. EQ-5D health states are assigned values on a scale anchored in perfect health (1) and death (0).The dominant procedure for defining values for EQ-5D health states involves regression modeling. These regression models have typically included a constant term, interpreted as the utility loss associated with any movement away from perfect health. The authors of the United States EQ-5D valuation study replaced this constant with a variable, D1, which corresponds to the number of impaired dimensions beyond the first. The aim of this study was to illustrate how the use of the D1 variable in place of a constant is problematic. We compared the original D1 regression model with a mathematically equivalent model with a constant term. Comparisons included implications for the magnitude and statistical significance of the coefficients, multicollinearity (variance inflation factors, or VIFs), number of calculation steps needed to determine tariff values, and consequences for tariff interpretation. Using the D1 variable in place of a constant shifted all dummy variable coefficients away from zero by the value of the constant, greatly increased the multicollinearity of the model (maximum VIF of 113.2 vs. 21.2), and increased the mean number of calculation steps required to determine health state values. Using the D1 variable in place of a constant constitutes an unnecessary complication of the model, obscures the fact that at least two of the main effect dummy variables are statistically nonsignificant, and complicates and biases interpretation of the tariff algorithm.

  15. Investigating the Performance of Alternate Regression Weights by Studying All Possible Criteria in Regression Models with a Fixed Set of Predictors

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Waller, Niels; Jones, Jeff

    2011-01-01

    We describe methods for assessing all possible criteria (i.e., dependent variables) and subsets of criteria for regression models with a fixed set of predictors, x (where x is an n x 1 vector of independent variables). Our methods build upon the geometry of regression coefficients (hereafter called regression weights) in n-dimensional space. For a…

  16. Determination of Time Dependent Virus Inactivation Rates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chrysikopoulos, C. V.; Vogler, E. T.

    2003-12-01

    A methodology is developed for estimating temporally variable virus inactivation rate coefficients from experimental virus inactivation data. The methodology consists of a technique for slope estimation of normalized virus inactivation data in conjunction with a resampling parameter estimation procedure. The slope estimation technique is based on a relatively flexible geostatistical method known as universal kriging. Drift coefficients are obtained by nonlinear fitting of bootstrap samples and the corresponding confidence intervals are obtained by bootstrap percentiles. The proposed methodology yields more accurate time dependent virus inactivation rate coefficients than those estimated by fitting virus inactivation data to a first-order inactivation model. The methodology is successfully applied to a set of poliovirus batch inactivation data. Furthermore, the importance of accurate inactivation rate coefficient determination on virus transport in water saturated porous media is demonstrated with model simulations.

  17. Using Bayesian hierarchical models to better understand nitrate sources and sinks in agricultural watersheds.

    PubMed

    Xia, Yongqiu; Weller, Donald E; Williams, Meghan N; Jordan, Thomas E; Yan, Xiaoyuan

    2016-11-15

    Export coefficient models (ECMs) are often used to predict nutrient sources and sinks in watersheds because ECMs can flexibly incorporate processes and have minimal data requirements. However, ECMs do not quantify uncertainties in model structure, parameters, or predictions; nor do they account for spatial and temporal variability in land characteristics, weather, and management practices. We applied Bayesian hierarchical methods to address these problems in ECMs used to predict nitrate concentration in streams. We compared four model formulations, a basic ECM and three models with additional terms to represent competing hypotheses about the sources of error in ECMs and about spatial and temporal variability of coefficients: an ADditive Error Model (ADEM), a SpatioTemporal Parameter Model (STPM), and a Dynamic Parameter Model (DPM). The DPM incorporates a first-order random walk to represent spatial correlation among parameters and a dynamic linear model to accommodate temporal correlation. We tested the modeling approach in a proof of concept using watershed characteristics and nitrate export measurements from watersheds in the Coastal Plain physiographic province of the Chesapeake Bay drainage. Among the four models, the DPM was the best--it had the lowest mean error, explained the most variability (R 2  = 0.99), had the narrowest prediction intervals, and provided the most effective tradeoff between fit complexity (its deviance information criterion, DIC, was 45.6 units lower than any other model, indicating overwhelming support for the DPM). The superiority of the DPM supports its underlying hypothesis that the main source of error in ECMs is their failure to account for parameter variability rather than structural error. Analysis of the fitted DPM coefficients for cropland export and instream retention revealed some of the factors controlling nitrate concentration: cropland nitrate exports were positively related to stream flow and watershed average slope, while instream nitrate retention was positively correlated with nitrate concentration. By quantifying spatial and temporal variability in sources and sinks, the DPM provides new information to better target management actions to the most effective times and places. Given the wide use of ECMs as research and management tools, our approach can be broadly applied in other watersheds and to other materials. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Seasonal Variability in Global Eddy Diffusion and the Effect on Thermospheric Neutral Density

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pilinski, M.; Crowley, G.

    2014-12-01

    We describe a method for making single-satellite estimates of the seasonal variability in global-average eddy diffusion coefficients. Eddy diffusion values as a function of time between January 2004 and January 2008 were estimated from residuals of neutral density measurements made by the CHallenging Minisatellite Payload (CHAMP) and simulations made using the Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Electrodynamics - Global Circulation Model (TIME-GCM). The eddy diffusion coefficient results are quantitatively consistent with previous estimates based on satellite drag observations and are qualitatively consistent with other measurement methods such as sodium lidar observations and eddy-diffusivity models. The eddy diffusion coefficient values estimated between January 2004 and January 2008 were then used to generate new TIME-GCM results. Based on these results, the RMS difference between the TIME-GCM model and density data from a variety of satellites is reduced by an average of 5%. This result, indicates that global thermospheric density modeling can be improved by using data from a single satellite like CHAMP. This approach also demonstrates how eddy diffusion could be estimated in near real-time from satellite observations and used to drive a global circulation model like TIME-GCM. Although the use of global values improves modeled neutral densities, there are some limitations of this method, which are discussed, including that the latitude-dependence of the seasonal neutral-density signal is not completely captured by a global variation of eddy diffusion coefficients. This demonstrates the need for a latitude-dependent specification of eddy diffusion consistent with diffusion observations made by other techniques.

  19. Seasonal variability in global eddy diffusion and the effect on neutral density

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pilinski, M. D.; Crowley, G.

    2015-04-01

    We describe a method for making single-satellite estimates of the seasonal variability in global-average eddy diffusion coefficients. Eddy diffusion values as a function of time were estimated from residuals of neutral density measurements made by the Challenging Minisatellite Payload (CHAMP) and simulations made using the thermosphere-ionosphere-mesosphere electrodynamics global circulation model (TIME-GCM). The eddy diffusion coefficient results are quantitatively consistent with previous estimates based on satellite drag observations and are qualitatively consistent with other measurement methods such as sodium lidar observations and eddy diffusivity models. Eddy diffusion coefficient values estimated between January 2004 and January 2008 were then used to generate new TIME-GCM results. Based on these results, the root-mean-square sum for the TIME-GCM model is reduced by an average of 5% when compared to density data from a variety of satellites, indicating that the fidelity of global density modeling can be improved by using data from a single satellite like CHAMP. This approach also demonstrates that eddy diffusion could be estimated in near real-time from satellite observations and used to drive a global circulation model like TIME-GCM. Although the use of global values improves modeled neutral densities, there are limitations to this method, which are discussed, including that the latitude dependence of the seasonal neutral-density signal is not completely captured by a global variation of eddy diffusion coefficients. This demonstrates the need for a latitude-dependent specification of eddy diffusion which is also consistent with diffusion observations made by other techniques.

  20. Dynamics relationship between stock prices and economic variables in Malaysia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chun, Ooi Po; Arsad, Zainudin; Huen, Tan Bee

    2014-07-01

    Knowledge on linkages between stock prices and macroeconomic variables are essential in the formulation of effective monetary policy. This study investigates the relationship between stock prices in Malaysia (KLCI) with four selected macroeconomic variables, namely industrial production index (IPI), quasi money supply (MS2), real exchange rate (REXR) and 3-month Treasury bill (TRB). The variables used in this study are monthly data from 1996 to 2012. Vector error correction (VEC) model and Kalman filter (KF) technique are utilized to assess the impact of macroeconomic variables on the stock prices. The results from the cointegration test revealed that the stock prices and macroeconomic variables are cointegrated. Different from the constant estimate from the static VEC model, the KF estimates noticeably exhibit time-varying attributes over the entire sample period. The varying estimates of the impact coefficients should be better reflect the changing economic environment. Surprisingly, IPI is negatively related to the KLCI with the estimates of the impact slowly increase and become positive in recent years. TRB is found to be generally negatively related to the KLCI with the impact fluctuating along the constant estimate of the VEC model. The KF estimates for REXR and MS2 show a mixture of positive and negative impact on the KLCI. The coefficients of error correction term (ECT) are negative in majority of the sample period, signifying the stock prices responded to stabilize any short term deviation in the economic system. The findings from the KF model indicate that any implication that is based on the usual static model may lead to authorities implementing less appropriate policies.

  1. Variable selection and model choice in geoadditive regression models.

    PubMed

    Kneib, Thomas; Hothorn, Torsten; Tutz, Gerhard

    2009-06-01

    Model choice and variable selection are issues of major concern in practical regression analyses, arising in many biometric applications such as habitat suitability analyses, where the aim is to identify the influence of potentially many environmental conditions on certain species. We describe regression models for breeding bird communities that facilitate both model choice and variable selection, by a boosting algorithm that works within a class of geoadditive regression models comprising spatial effects, nonparametric effects of continuous covariates, interaction surfaces, and varying coefficients. The major modeling components are penalized splines and their bivariate tensor product extensions. All smooth model terms are represented as the sum of a parametric component and a smooth component with one degree of freedom to obtain a fair comparison between the model terms. A generic representation of the geoadditive model allows us to devise a general boosting algorithm that automatically performs model choice and variable selection.

  2. Analysis of Sediment Transport for Rivers in South Korea based on Data Mining technique

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jang, Eun-kyung; Ji, Un; Yeo, Woonkwang

    2017-04-01

    The purpose of this study is to calculate of sediment discharge assessment using data mining in South Korea. The Model Tree was selected for this study which is the most suitable technique to explicitly analyze the relationship between input and output variables in various and diverse databases among the Data Mining. In order to derive the sediment discharge equation using the Model Tree of Data Mining used the dimensionless variables used in Engelund and Hansen, Ackers and White, Brownlie and van Rijn equations as the analytical condition. In addition, total of 14 analytical conditions were set considering the conditions dimensional variables and the combination conditions of the dimensionless variables and the dimensional variables according to the relationship between the flow and the sediment transport. For each case, the analysis results were analyzed by mean of discrepancy ratio, root mean square error, mean absolute percent error, correlation coefficient. The results showed that the best fit was obtained by using five dimensional variables such as velocity, depth, slope, width and Median Diameter. And closest approximation to the best goodness-of-fit was estimated from the depth, slope, width, main grain size of bed material and dimensionless tractive force and except for the slope in the single variable. In addition, the three types of Model Tree that are most appropriate are compared with the Ackers and White equation which is the best fit among the existing equations, the mean discrepancy ration and the correlation coefficient of the Model Tree are improved compared to the Ackers and White equation.

  3. Evaluating the effects of variable water chemistry on bacterial transport during infiltration.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Haibo; Nordin, Nahjan Amer; Olson, Mira S

    2013-07-01

    Bacterial infiltration through the subsurface has been studied experimentally under different conditions of interest and is dependent on a variety of physical, chemical and biological factors. However, most bacterial transport studies fail to adequately represent the complex processes occurring in natural systems. Bacteria are frequently detected in stormwater runoff, and may present risk of microbial contamination during stormwater recharge into groundwater. Mixing of stormwater runoff with groundwater during infiltration results in changes in local solution chemistry, which may lead to changes in both bacterial and collector surface properties and subsequent bacterial attachment rates. This study focuses on quantifying changes in bacterial transport behavior under variable solution chemistry, and on comparing the influences of chemical variability and physical variability on bacterial attachment rates. Bacterial attachment rate at the soil-water interface was predicted analytically using a combined rate equation, which varies temporally and spatially with respect to changes in solution chemistry. Two-phase Monte Carlo analysis was conducted and an overall input-output correlation coefficient was calculated to quantitatively describe the importance of physiochemical variation on the estimates of attachment rate. Among physical variables, soil particle size has the highest correlation coefficient, followed by porosity of the soil media, bacterial size and flow velocity. Among chemical variables, ionic strength has the highest correlation coefficient. A semi-reactive microbial transport model was developed within HP1 (HYDRUS1D-PHREEQC) and applied to column transport experiments with constant and variable solution chemistries. Bacterial attachment rates varied from 9.10×10(-3)min(-1) to 3.71×10(-3)min(-1) due to mixing of synthetic stormwater (SSW) with artificial groundwater (AGW), while bacterial attachment remained constant at 9.10×10(-3)min(-1) in a constant solution chemistry (AGW only). The model matched observed bacterial breakthrough curves well. Although limitations exist in the application of a semi-reactive microbial transport model, this method represents one step towards a more realistic model of bacterial transport in complex microbial-water-soil systems. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. FNAS/summer faculty fellowship research continuation program. Task 6: Integrated model development for liquid fueled rocket propulsion systems. Task 9: Aspects of model-based rocket engine condition monitoring and control

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Santi, L. Michael; Helmicki, Arthur J.

    1993-01-01

    The objective of Phase I of this research effort was to develop an advanced mathematical-empirical model of SSME steady-state performance. Task 6 of Phase I is to develop component specific modification strategy for baseline case influence coefficient matrices. This report describes the background of SSME performance characteristics and provides a description of the control variable basis of three different gains models. The procedure used to establish influence coefficients for each of these three models is also described. Gains model analysis results are compared to Rocketdyne's power balance model (PBM).

  5. Consistent Assignment of the Vibrations of Monohalosubstituted Benzenes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harris, Joe; Andrejeva, Anna; Tuttle, William Duncan; Pugliesi, Igor; Schriever, Christian; Wright, Tim

    2014-06-01

    When substituted benzenes become a focus of a spectroscopic study there are various well known vibrational labelling schemes present, however it was shown in recent works the description of monohalobenzene vibrations in terms of benzene modes (ie. Wilson notation) is questionable in some cases. A new scheme is presented which uses the motions of monofluorobenzene vibrations as a basis for labelling vibrational assignments of monosubstituted benzenes.d The scheme has been successfully applied to the ground and excited states of toluene and its deuterated-methyl group isotopologue. Here we present the application of the scheme to fluorobenzene and its fully deuterated analogue. One-colour resonance-enhanced multiphoton ionization (REMPI) spectroscopy was employed in order to characterise the fluorobenzene and fluorobenzene-d5 excited state. E. B. Wilson Jr., Phys. Rev., 45, 706 (1934) G .Varsanyi, Assignments of the Vibrational Spectra of Seven Hundred Benzene Derivatives,Wiley, New York, 1974, Vol. I and II I. Pugliesi, N. C. Tonge and M. C. R. Cockett, J. Chem. Phys., 129, 104303 (2008) A. M. Gardner and T. G. Wright, J. Chem. Phys., 135,114305 (2011) A. M. Gardner, A. M. Green, V. M. Tame-Reyes, V. H. K. Wilton and T. G. Wright, 138, 134303 (2013) A. M. Gardner, A. M. Green, V. M. Tame-Reyes, K. L. Reid, J. A. Davies, V. H. K. Wilton and T. G. Wright, manuscript accepted

  6. 3-D ballistic transport of ellipsoidal volcanic projectiles considering horizontal wind field and variable shape-dependent drag coefficients

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bertin, Daniel

    2017-02-01

    An innovative 3-D numerical model for the dynamics of volcanic ballistic projectiles is presented here. The model focuses on ellipsoidal particles and improves previous approaches by considering horizontal wind field, virtual mass forces, and drag forces subjected to variable shape-dependent drag coefficients. Modeling suggests that the projectile's launch velocity and ejection angle are first-order parameters influencing ballistic trajectories. The projectile's density and minor radius are second-order factors, whereas both intermediate and major radii of the projectile are of third order. Comparing output parameters, assuming different input data, highlights the importance of considering a horizontal wind field and variable shape-dependent drag coefficients in ballistic modeling, which suggests that they should be included in every ballistic model. On the other hand, virtual mass forces should be discarded since they almost do not contribute to ballistic trajectories. Simulation results were used to constrain some crucial input parameters (launch velocity, ejection angle, wind speed, and wind azimuth) of the block that formed the biggest and most distal ballistic impact crater during the 1984-1993 eruptive cycle of Lascar volcano, Northern Chile. Subsequently, up to 106 simulations were performed, whereas nine ejection parameters were defined by a Latin-hypercube sampling approach. Simulation results were summarized as a quantitative probabilistic hazard map for ballistic projectiles. Transects were also done in order to depict aerial hazard zones based on the same probabilistic procedure. Both maps combined can be used as a hazard prevention tool for ground and aerial transits nearby unresting volcanoes.

  7. First measurements of ambient aerosol over an ecologically sensitive zone in Central India: Relationships between PM2.5 mass, its optical properties, and meteorology.

    PubMed

    Sunder Raman, Ramya; Kumar, Samresh

    2016-04-15

    PM2.5 mass and its optical properties were measured over an ecologically sensitive zone in Central India between January and December, 2012. Meteorological parameters including temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, wind direction, and barometric pressure were also monitored. During the study period, the PM2.5 (fine PM) concentration ranged between 3.2μgm(-3) and 193.9μgm(-3) with a median concentration of 31.4μgm(-3). The attenuation coefficients, βATN at 370nm, 550nm, and 880nm had median values of 104.5Mm(-1), 79.2Mm(-1), and 59.8Mm(-1), respectively. Further, the dry scattering coefficient, βSCAT at 550nm had a median value of 17.1Mm(-1) while the absorption coefficient βABS at 550nm had a median value of 61.2Mm(-1). The relationship between fine PM mass and attenuation coefficients showed pronounced seasonality. Scattering, absorption, and attenuation coefficient at different wavelengths were all well correlated with fine PM mass only during the post-monsoon season (October, November, and December). The highest correlation (r(2)=0.81) was between fine PM mass and βSCAT at 550nm during post-monsoon season. During this season, the mass scattering efficiency (σSCAT) was 1.44m(2)g(-1). Thus, monitoring optical properties all year round, as a surrogate for fine PM mass was found unsuitable for the study location. In order to assess the relationships between fine PM mass and its optical properties and meteorological parameters, multiple linear regression (MLR) models were fitted for each season, with fine PM mass as the dependent variable. Such a model fitted for the post-monsoon season explained over 88% of the variability in fine PM mass. However, the MLR models were able to explain only 31 and 32% of the variability in fine PM during pre-monsoon (March, April, and May) and monsoon (June, July, August, and September) seasons, respectively. During the winter (January and February) season, the MLR model explained 54% of the PM2.5 variability. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. That's Using Your Brain!

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Visser, Dana R.

    1996-01-01

    Discusses new adult learning theories, including those of Roger Sperry (left brain/right brain), Paul McLean (triune brain), and Howard Gardner (multiple intelligences). Relates adult learning theory to training. (JOW)

  9. Parametric regression model for survival data: Weibull regression model as an example

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    Weibull regression model is one of the most popular forms of parametric regression model that it provides estimate of baseline hazard function, as well as coefficients for covariates. Because of technical difficulties, Weibull regression model is seldom used in medical literature as compared to the semi-parametric proportional hazard model. To make clinical investigators familiar with Weibull regression model, this article introduces some basic knowledge on Weibull regression model and then illustrates how to fit the model with R software. The SurvRegCensCov package is useful in converting estimated coefficients to clinical relevant statistics such as hazard ratio (HR) and event time ratio (ETR). Model adequacy can be assessed by inspecting Kaplan-Meier curves stratified by categorical variable. The eha package provides an alternative method to model Weibull regression model. The check.dist() function helps to assess goodness-of-fit of the model. Variable selection is based on the importance of a covariate, which can be tested using anova() function. Alternatively, backward elimination starting from a full model is an efficient way for model development. Visualization of Weibull regression model after model development is interesting that it provides another way to report your findings. PMID:28149846

  10. Climatological Modeling of Monthly Air Temperature and Precipitation in Egypt through GIS Techniques

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    El Kenawy, A.

    2009-09-01

    This paper describes a method for modeling and mapping four climatic variables (maximum temperature, minimum temperature, mean temperature and total precipitation) in Egypt using a multiple regression approach implemented in a GIS environment. In this model, a set of variables including latitude, longitude, elevation within a distance of 5, 10 and 15 km, slope, aspect, distance to the Mediterranean Sea, distance to the Red Sea, distance to the Nile, ratio between land and water masses within a radius of 5, 10, 15 km, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), the Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), the Normalized Difference Temperature Index (NDTI) and reflectance are included as independent variables. These variables were integrated as raster layers in MiraMon software at a spatial resolution of 1 km. Climatic variables were considered as dependent variables and averaged from quality controlled and homogenized 39 series distributing across the entire country during the period of (1957-2006). For each climatic variable, digital and objective maps were finally obtained using the multiple regression coefficients at monthly, seasonal and annual timescale. The accuracy of these maps were assessed through cross-validation between predicted and observed values using a set of statistics including coefficient of determination (R2), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), mean bias Error (MBE) and D Willmott statistic. These maps are valuable in the sense of spatial resolution as well as the number of observatories involved in the current analysis.

  11. DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Garcia-Fernandez, Ignacio; Pla-Castells, Marta; Martinez-Dura, Rafael J.

    A model of a cable and pulleys is presented that can be used in Real Time Computer Graphics applications. The model is formulated by the coupling of a damped spring and a variable coefficient wave equation, and can be integrated in more complex mechanical models of lift systems, such as cranes, elevators, etc. with a high degree of interactivity.

  12. The Evaluation and Selection of Adequate Causal Models: A Compensatory Education Example.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tanaka, Jeffrey S.

    1982-01-01

    Implications of model evaluation (using traditional chi square goodness of fit statistics, incremental fit indices for covariance structure models, and latent variable coefficients of determination) on substantive conclusions are illustrated with an example examining the effects of participation in a compensatory education program on posttreatment…

  13. Multicollinearity and Regression Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Daoud, Jamal I.

    2017-12-01

    In regression analysis it is obvious to have a correlation between the response and predictor(s), but having correlation among predictors is something undesired. The number of predictors included in the regression model depends on many factors among which, historical data, experience, etc. At the end selection of most important predictors is something objective due to the researcher. Multicollinearity is a phenomena when two or more predictors are correlated, if this happens, the standard error of the coefficients will increase [8]. Increased standard errors means that the coefficients for some or all independent variables may be found to be significantly different from In other words, by overinflating the standard errors, multicollinearity makes some variables statistically insignificant when they should be significant. In this paper we focus on the multicollinearity, reasons and consequences on the reliability of the regression model.

  14. Finite element modeling of diffusion and partitioning in biological systems: the infinite composite medium problem.

    PubMed

    Missel, P J

    2000-01-01

    Four methods are proposed for modeling diffusion in heterogeneous media where diffusion and partition coefficients take on differing values in each subregion. The exercise was conducted to validate finite element modeling (FEM) procedures in anticipation of modeling drug diffusion with regional partitioning into ocular tissue, though the approach can be useful for other organs, or for modeling diffusion in laminate devices. Partitioning creates a discontinuous value in the dependent variable (concentration) at an intertissue boundary that is not easily handled by available general-purpose FEM codes, which allow for only one value at each node. The discontinuity is handled using a transformation on the dependent variable based upon the region-specific partition coefficient. Methods were evaluated by their ability to reproduce a known exact result, for the problem of the infinite composite medium (Crank, J. The Mathematics of Diffusion, 2nd ed. New York: Oxford University Press, 1975, pp. 38-39.). The most physically intuitive method is based upon the concept of chemical potential, which is continuous across an interphase boundary (method III). This method makes the equation of the dependent variable highly nonlinear. This can be linearized easily by a change of variables (method IV). Results are also given for a one-dimensional problem simulating bolus injection into the vitreous, predicting time disposition of drug in vitreous and retina.

  15. Some Insights of Spectral Optimization in Ocean Color Inversion

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lee, Zhongping; Franz, Bryan; Shang, Shaoling; Dong, Qiang; Arnone, Robert

    2011-01-01

    In the past decades various algorithms have been developed for the retrieval of water constituents from the measurement of ocean color radiometry, and one of the approaches is spectral optimization. This approach defines an error target (or error function) between the input remote sensing reflectance and the output remote sensing reflectance, with the latter modeled with a few variables that represent the optically active properties (such as the absorption coefficient of phytoplankton and the backscattering coefficient of particles). The values of the variables when the error reach a minimum (optimization is achieved) are considered the properties that form the input remote sensing reflectance; or in other words, the equations are solved numerically. The applications of this approach implicitly assume that the error is a monotonic function of the various variables. Here, with data from numerical simulation and field measurements, we show the shape of the error surface, in a way to justify the possibility of finding a solution of the various variables. In addition, because the spectral properties could be modeled differently, impacts of such differences on the error surface as well as on the retrievals are also presented.

  16. Physical uniqueness of higher-order Korteweg-de Vries theory for continuously stratified fluids without background shear

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shimizu, Kenji

    2017-10-01

    The 2nd-order Korteweg-de Vries (KdV) equation and the Gardner (or extended KdV) equation are often used to investigate internal solitary waves, commonly observed in oceans and lakes. However, application of these KdV-type equations for continuously stratified fluids to geophysical problems is hindered by nonuniqueness of the higher-order coefficients and the associated correction functions to the wave fields. This study proposes to reduce arbitrariness of the higher-order KdV theory by considering its uniqueness in the following three physical senses: (i) consistency of the nonlinear higher-order coefficients and correction functions with the corresponding phase speeds, (ii) wavenumber-independence of the vertically integrated available potential energy, and (iii) its positive definiteness. The spectral (or generalized Fourier) approach based on vertical modes in the isopycnal coordinate is shown to enable an alternative derivation of the 2nd-order KdV equation, without encountering nonuniqueness. Comparison with previous theories shows that Parseval's theorem naturally yields a unique set of special conditions for (ii) and (iii). Hydrostatic fully nonlinear solutions, derived by combining the spectral approach and simple-wave analysis, reveal that both proposed and previous 2nd-order theories satisfy (i), provided that consistent definitions are used for the wave amplitude and the nonlinear correction. This condition reduces the arbitrariness when higher-order KdV-type theories are compared with observations or numerical simulations. The coefficients and correction functions that satisfy (i)-(iii) are given by explicit formulae to 2nd order and by algebraic recurrence relationships to arbitrary order for hydrostatic fully nonlinear and linear fully nonhydrostatic effects.

  17. Predicting Average Vehicle Speed in Two Lane Highways Considering Weather Condition and Traffic Characteristics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mirbaha, Babak; Saffarzadeh, Mahmoud; AmirHossein Beheshty, Seyed; Aniran, MirMoosa; Yazdani, Mirbahador; Shirini, Bahram

    2017-10-01

    Analysis of vehicle speed with different weather condition and traffic characteristics is very effective in traffic planning. Since the weather condition and traffic characteristics vary every day, the prediction of average speed can be useful in traffic management plans. In this study, traffic and weather data for a two-lane highway located in Northwest of Iran were selected for analysis. After merging traffic and weather data, the linear regression model was calibrated for speed prediction using STATA12.1 Statistical and Data Analysis software. Variables like vehicle flow, percentage of heavy vehicles, vehicle flow in opposing lane, percentage of heavy vehicles in opposing lane, rainfall (mm), snowfall and maximum daily wind speed more than 13m/s were found to be significant variables in the model. Results showed that variables of vehicle flow and heavy vehicle percent acquired the positive coefficient that shows, by increasing these variables the average vehicle speed in every weather condition will also increase. Vehicle flow in opposing lane, percentage of heavy vehicle in opposing lane, rainfall amount (mm), snowfall and maximum daily wind speed more than 13m/s acquired the negative coefficient that shows by increasing these variables, the average vehicle speed will decrease.

  18. A SEMIPARAMETRIC BAYESIAN MODEL FOR CIRCULAR-LINEAR REGRESSION

    EPA Science Inventory

    We present a Bayesian approach to regress a circular variable on a linear predictor. The regression coefficients are assumed to have a nonparametric distribution with a Dirichlet process prior. The semiparametric Bayesian approach gives added flexibility to the model and is usefu...

  19. Comparison of kinetic models for atom recombination on high-temperature reusable surface insulation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Willey, Ronald J.

    1993-01-01

    Five kinetic models are compared for their ability to predict recombination coefficients for oxygen and nitrogen atoms over high-temperature reusable surface insulation (HRSI). Four of the models are derived using Rideal-Eley or Langmuir-Hinshelwood catalytic mechanisms to describe the reaction sequence. The fifth model is an empirical expression that offers certain features unattainable through mechanistic description. The results showed that a four-parameter model, with temperature as the only variable, works best with data currently available. The model describes recombination coefficients for oxygen and nitrogen atoms for temperatures from 300 to 1800 K. Kinetic models, with atom concentrations, demonstrate the influence of atom concentration on recombination coefficients. These models can be used for the prediction of heating rates due to catalytic recombination during re-entry or aerobraking maneuvers. The work further demonstrates a requirement for more recombination experiments in the temperature ranges of 300-1000 K, and 1500-1850 K, with deliberate concentration variation to verify model requirements.

  20. [A case of parental alienation].

    PubMed

    Menz, Wolfgang

    2014-01-01

    The clinical term "Parental Alienation Syndrome" (PAS) was introduced in 1984 by Richard Gardner, an American psychiatrist. Gardner described PAS and its symptoms, as a personality disorder, which appears chiefly in connection to child custody disputes wherein a child turns suddenly and massively against the non-custodial parent without reasonable grounds for doing so. This action by the child is a result of the custodial parent's emotionally abusive attempts to incite the child against the non-custodial parent.Where the child's rejection is based on some real past experience, there is not PAS. PAS only occurs as a result of the custodial parent's actions. Despite intensive effort, PAS was not included in the new DSM-V. In this case, a particularly impressive case history of parental alienation is described and discussed.

  1. How transfer flights shape the structure of the airline network.

    PubMed

    Ryczkowski, Tomasz; Fronczak, Agata; Fronczak, Piotr

    2017-07-17

    In this paper, we analyse the gravity model in the global passenger air-transport network. We show that in the standard form, the model is inadequate for correctly describing the relationship between passenger flows and typical geo-economic variables that characterize connected countries. We propose a model for transfer flights that allows exploitation of these discrepancies in order to discover hidden subflows in the network. We illustrate its usefulness by retrieving the distance coefficient in the gravity model, which is one of the determinants of the globalization process. Finally, we discuss the correctness of the presented approach by comparing the distance coefficient to several well-known economic events.

  2. Empirical Models for the Shielding and Reflection of Jet Mixing Noise by a Surface

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Brown, Cliff

    2015-01-01

    Empirical models for the shielding and refection of jet mixing noise by a nearby surface are described and the resulting models evaluated. The flow variables are used to non-dimensionalize the surface position variables, reducing the variable space and producing models that are linear function of non-dimensional surface position and logarithmic in Strouhal frequency. A separate set of coefficients are determined at each observer angle in the dataset and linear interpolation is used to for the intermediate observer angles. The shielding and rejection models are then combined with existing empirical models for the jet mixing and jet-surface interaction noise sources to produce predicted spectra for a jet operating near a surface. These predictions are then evaluated against experimental data.

  3. Empirical Models for the Shielding and Reflection of Jet Mixing Noise by a Surface

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Brown, Clifford A.

    2016-01-01

    Empirical models for the shielding and reflection of jet mixing noise by a nearby surface are described and the resulting models evaluated. The flow variables are used to non-dimensionalize the surface position variables, reducing the variable space and producing models that are linear function of non-dimensional surface position and logarithmic in Strouhal frequency. A separate set of coefficients are determined at each observer angle in the dataset and linear interpolation is used to for the intermediate observer angles. The shielding and reflection models are then combined with existing empirical models for the jet mixing and jet-surface interaction noise sources to produce predicted spectra for a jet operating near a surface. These predictions are then evaluated against experimental data.

  4. Prediction of dimethyl disulfide levels from biosolids using statistical modeling.

    PubMed

    Gabriel, Steven A; Vilalai, Sirapong; Arispe, Susanna; Kim, Hyunook; McConnell, Laura L; Torrents, Alba; Peot, Christopher; Ramirez, Mark

    2005-01-01

    Two statistical models were used to predict the concentration of dimethyl disulfide (DMDS) released from biosolids produced by an advanced wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) located in Washington, DC, USA. The plant concentrates sludge from primary sedimentation basins in gravity thickeners (GT) and sludge from secondary sedimentation basins in dissolved air flotation (DAF) thickeners. The thickened sludge is pumped into blending tanks and then fed into centrifuges for dewatering. The dewatered sludge is then conditioned with lime before trucking out from the plant. DMDS, along with other volatile sulfur and nitrogen-containing chemicals, is known to contribute to biosolids odors. These models identified oxidation/reduction potential (ORP) values of a GT and DAF, the amount of sludge dewatered by centrifuges, and the blend ratio between GT thickened sludge and DAF thickened sludge in blending tanks as control variables. The accuracy of the developed regression models was evaluated by checking the adjusted R2 of the regression as well as the signs of coefficients associated with each variable. In general, both models explained observed DMDS levels in sludge headspace samples. The adjusted R2 value of the regression models 1 and 2 were 0.79 and 0.77, respectively. Coefficients for each regression model also had the correct sign. Using the developed models, plant operators can adjust the controllable variables to proactively decrease this odorant. Therefore, these models are a useful tool in biosolids management at WWTPs.

  5. Scott Gardner Act

    THOMAS, 111th Congress

    Rep. Myrick, Sue Wilkins [R-NC-9

    2009-02-25

    House - 03/16/2009 Referred to the Subcommittee on Immigration, Citizenship, Refugees, Border Security, and International Law. (All Actions) Tracker: This bill has the status IntroducedHere are the steps for Status of Legislation:

  6. The efficiency of parameter estimation of latent path analysis using summated rating scale (SRS) and method of successive interval (MSI) for transformation of score to scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Solimun, Fernandes, Adji Achmad Rinaldo; Arisoesilaningsih, Endang

    2017-12-01

    Research in various fields generally investigates systems and involves latent variables. One method to analyze the model representing the system is path analysis. The data of latent variables measured using questionnaires by applying attitude scale model yields data in the form of score, before analyzed should be transformation so that it becomes data of scale. Path coefficient, is parameter estimator, calculated from scale data using method of successive interval (MSI) and summated rating scale (SRS). In this research will be identifying which data transformation method is better. Path coefficients have smaller varieties are said to be more efficient. The transformation method that produces scaled data and used in path analysis capable of producing path coefficients (parameter estimators) with smaller varieties is said to be better. The result of analysis using real data shows that on the influence of Attitude variable to Intention Entrepreneurship, has relative efficiency (ER) = 1, where it shows that the result of analysis using data transformation of MSI and SRS as efficient. On the other hand, for simulation data, at high correlation between items (0.7-0.9), MSI method is more efficient 1.3 times better than SRS method.

  7. TEC variability near northern EIA crest and comparison with IRI model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aggarwal, Malini

    2011-10-01

    Monthly median values of hourly total electron content (TEC) is obtained with GPS at a station near northern anomaly crest, Rajkot (geog. 22.29°N, 70.74°E; geomag. 14.21°N, 144.9°E) to study the variability of low latitude ionospheric behavior during low solar activity period (April 2005 to March 2006). The TEC exhibit characteristic features like day-to-day variability, semiannual anomaly and noon bite out. The observed TEC is compared with latest International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) - 2007 model using options of topside electron density, NeQuick, IRI01-corr and IRI-2001 by using both URSI and CCIR coefficients. A good agreement of observed and predicted TEC is found during the daytime with underestimation at other times. The predicted TEC by NeQuick and IRI01-corr is closer to the observed TEC during the daytime whereas during nighttime and morning hours, IRI-2001 shows lesser discrepancy in all seasons by both URSI and CCIR coefficients.

  8. Effectiveness Trial of Community-Based I Choose Life-Africa Human Immunodeficiency Virus Prevention Program in Kenya

    PubMed Central

    Adam, Mary B.

    2014-01-01

    We measured the effectiveness of a human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevention program developed in Kenya and carried out among university students. A total of 182 student volunteers were randomized into an intervention group who received a 32-hour training course as HIV prevention peer educators and a control group who received no training. Repeated measures assessed HIV-related attitudes, intentions, knowledge, and behaviors four times over six months. Data were analyzed by using linear mixed models to compare the rate of change on 13 dependent variables that examined sexual risk behavior. Based on multi-level models, the slope coefficients for four variables showed reliable change in the hoped for direction: abstinence from oral, vaginal, or anal sex in the last two months, condom attitudes, HIV testing, and refusal skill. The intervention demonstrated evidence of non-zero slope coefficients in the hoped for direction on 12 of 13 dependent variables. The intervention reduced sexual risk behavior. PMID:24957544

  9. Effectiveness trial of community-based I Choose Life-Africa human immunodeficiency virus prevention program in Kenya.

    PubMed

    Adam, Mary B

    2014-09-01

    We measured the effectiveness of a human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevention program developed in Kenya and carried out among university students. A total of 182 student volunteers were randomized into an intervention group who received a 32-hour training course as HIV prevention peer educators and a control group who received no training. Repeated measures assessed HIV-related attitudes, intentions, knowledge, and behaviors four times over six months. Data were analyzed by using linear mixed models to compare the rate of change on 13 dependent variables that examined sexual risk behavior. Based on multi-level models, the slope coefficients for four variables showed reliable change in the hoped for direction: abstinence from oral, vaginal, or anal sex in the last two months, condom attitudes, HIV testing, and refusal skill. The intervention demonstrated evidence of non-zero slope coefficients in the hoped for direction on 12 of 13 dependent variables. The intervention reduced sexual risk behavior. © The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

  10. Is the Non-Dipole Magnetic Field Random?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Walker, Andrew D.; Backus, George E.

    1996-01-01

    Statistical modelling of the Earth's magnetic field B has a long history. In particular, the spherical harmonic coefficients of scalar fields derived from B can be treated as Gaussian random variables. In this paper, we give examples of highly organized fields whose spherical harmonic coefficients pass tests for independent Gaussian random variables. The fact that coefficients at some depth may be usefully summarized as independent samples from a normal distribution need not imply that there really is some physical, random process at that depth. In fact, the field can be extremely structured and still be regarded for some purposes as random. In this paper, we examined the radial magnetic field B(sub r) produced by the core, but the results apply to any scalar field on the core-mantle boundary (CMB) which determines B outside the CMB.

  11. Inter-annual and spatial variability of Hamon potential evapotranspiration model coefficients

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McCabe, Gregory J.; Hay, Lauren E.; Bock, Andy; Markstrom, Steven L.; Atkinson, R. Dwight

    2015-01-01

    Monthly calibrated values of the Hamon PET coefficient (C) are determined for 109,951 hydrologic response units (HRUs) across the conterminous United States (U.S.). The calibrated coefficient values are determined by matching calculated mean monthly Hamon PET to mean monthly free-water surface evaporation. For most locations and months the calibrated coefficients are larger than the standard value reported by Hamon. The largest changes in the coefficients were for the late winter/early spring and fall months, whereas the smallest changes were for the summer months. Comparisons of PET computed using the standard value of C and computed using calibrated values of C indicate that for most of the conterminous U.S. PET is underestimated using the standard Hamon PET coefficient, except for the southeastern U.S.

  12. Molecular electronegativity distance vector model for the prediction of bioconcentration factors in fish.

    PubMed

    Liu, Shu-Shen; Qin, Li-Tang; Liu, Hai-Ling; Yin, Da-Qiang

    2008-02-01

    Molecular electronegativity distance vector (MEDV) derived directly from the molecular topological structures was used to describe the structures of 122 nonionic organic compounds (NOCs) and a quantitative relationship between the MEDV descriptors and the bioconcentration factors (BCF) of NOCs in fish was developed using the variable selection and modeling based on prediction (VSMP). It was found that some main structural factors influencing the BCFs of NOCs are the substructures expressed by four atomic types of nos. 2, 3, 5, and 13, i.e., atom groups -CH(2)- or =CH-, -CH< or =C<, -NH(2), and -Cl or -Br where the former two groups exist in the molecular skeleton of NOC and the latter three groups are related closely to the substituting groups on a benzene ring. The best 5-variable model, with the correlation coefficient (r(2)) of 0.9500 and the leave-one-out cross-validation correlation coefficient (q(2)) of 0.9428, was built by multiple linear regressions, which shows a good estimation ability and stability. A predictive power for the external samples was tested by the model from the training set of 80 NOCs and the predictive correlation coefficient (u(2)) for the 42 external samples in the test set was 0.9028.

  13. Modeling Turbulent Combustion for Variable Prandtl and Schmidt Number

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hassan, H. A.

    2004-01-01

    This report consists of two abstracts submitted for possible presentation at the AIAA Aerospace Science Meeting to be held in January 2005. Since the submittal of these abstracts we are continuing refinement of the model coefficients derived for the case of a variable Turbulent Prandtl number. The test cases being investigated are a Mach 9.2 flow over a degree ramp and a Mach 8.2 3-D calculation of crossing shocks. We have developed an axisymmetric code for treating axisymmetric flows. In addition the variable Schmidt number formulation was incorporated in the code and we are in the process of determining the model constants.

  14. Artificial neural network modeling of dissolved oxygen in the Heihe River, Northwestern China.

    PubMed

    Wen, Xiaohu; Fang, Jing; Diao, Meina; Zhang, Chuanqi

    2013-05-01

    Identification and quantification of dissolved oxygen (DO) profiles of river is one of the primary concerns for water resources managers. In this research, an artificial neural network (ANN) was developed to simulate the DO concentrations in the Heihe River, Northwestern China. A three-layer back-propagation ANN was used with the Bayesian regularization training algorithm. The input variables of the neural network were pH, electrical conductivity, chloride (Cl(-)), calcium (Ca(2+)), total alkalinity, total hardness, nitrate nitrogen (NO3-N), and ammonical nitrogen (NH4-N). The ANN structure with 14 hidden neurons obtained the best selection. By making comparison between the results of the ANN model and the measured data on the basis of correlation coefficient (r) and root mean square error (RMSE), a good model-fitting DO values indicated the effectiveness of neural network model. It is found that the coefficient of correlation (r) values for the training, validation, and test sets were 0.9654, 0.9841, and 0.9680, respectively, and the respective values of RMSE for the training, validation, and test sets were 0.4272, 0.3667, and 0.4570, respectively. Sensitivity analysis was used to determine the influence of input variables on the dependent variable. The most effective inputs were determined as pH, NO3-N, NH4-N, and Ca(2+). Cl(-) was found to be least effective variables on the proposed model. The identified ANN model can be used to simulate the water quality parameters.

  15. A direct numerical simulation-based re-examination of coefficients in the pressure-strain models in second-moment closures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jakirlić, S.; Hanjalić, K.

    2013-10-01

    The most challenging task in closing the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations at the second-moment closure (SMC) level is to model the pressure-rate-of-strain correlation in the transport equation for the Reynolds-stress tensor. The accurate modelling of this term, commonly denoted as Φij, is the key prerequisite for the correct capturing of the stress anisotropy, which potentially gives SMCs a decisive advantage over the ‘anisotropy-blind’ eddy-viscosity models. A variety of models for Φij proposed in the literature can all be expressed as a function of the stress-anisotropy-, rate-of-strain- and rate-of-rotation second-rank tensors, so that the modelling task is reduced to determining the model coefficients. It is, thus, the coefficients, associated with various terms in the expression, which differ from one model to another. The model coefficients have been traditionally determined with reference to the available data for sets of generic flows while being forced to satisfying the known values at flow boundaries. We evaluated the coefficients up to the second-order terms (in stress-anisotropy aij) directly from the DNS database for Φij and the turbulence variables involved in its modelling. The variations of the coefficients across the flow in a plane channel over a range of Reynolds numbers are compared with several popular models. The analysis provided a reasonable support for the common tensor-expansion representation of both the slow and rapid terms. Apart from the near-wall region and the channel centre, most coefficients for higher Re numbers showed themselves to be reasonably uniform, with the values closest to those proposed by Sarkar et al (1991 J. Fluid Mech. 227 245-72). An illustration of the coefficient variation for the ‘quasi-linear’ model is also presented for flow over a backward-facing step.

  16. Seasonal and interannual variability of the Arctic sea ice: A comparison between AO-FVCOM and observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Yu; Chen, Changsheng; Beardsley, Robert C.; Gao, Guoping; Qi, Jianhua; Lin, Huichan

    2016-11-01

    A high-resolution (up to 2 km), unstructured-grid, fully ice-sea coupled Arctic Ocean Finite-Volume Community Ocean Model (AO-FVCOM) was used to simulate the sea ice in the Arctic over the period 1978-2014. The spatial-varying horizontal model resolution was designed to better resolve both topographic and baroclinic dynamics scales over the Arctic slope and narrow straits. The model-simulated sea ice was in good agreement with available observed sea ice extent, concentration, drift velocity and thickness, not only in seasonal and interannual variability but also in spatial distribution. Compared with six other Arctic Ocean models (ECCO2, GSFC, INMOM, ORCA, NAME, and UW), the AO-FVCOM-simulated ice thickness showed a higher mean correlation coefficient of ˜0.63 and a smaller residual with observations. Model-produced ice drift speed and direction errors varied with wind speed: the speed and direction errors increased and decreased as the wind speed increased, respectively. Efforts were made to examine the influences of parameterizations of air-ice external and ice-water interfacial stresses on the model-produced bias. The ice drift direction was more sensitive to air-ice drag coefficients and turning angles than the ice drift speed. Increasing or decreasing either 10% in water-ice drag coefficient or 10° in water-ice turning angle did not show a significant influence on the ice drift velocity simulation results although the sea ice drift speed was more sensitive to these two parameters than the sea ice drift direction. Using the COARE 4.0-derived parameterization of air-water drag coefficient for wind stress did not significantly influence the ice drift velocity simulation.

  17. Mediation Analysis with Survival Outcomes: Accelerated Failure Time vs. Proportional Hazards Models.

    PubMed

    Gelfand, Lois A; MacKinnon, David P; DeRubeis, Robert J; Baraldi, Amanda N

    2016-01-01

    Survival time is an important type of outcome variable in treatment research. Currently, limited guidance is available regarding performing mediation analyses with survival outcomes, which generally do not have normally distributed errors, and contain unobserved (censored) events. We present considerations for choosing an approach, using a comparison of semi-parametric proportional hazards (PH) and fully parametric accelerated failure time (AFT) approaches for illustration. We compare PH and AFT models and procedures in their integration into mediation models and review their ability to produce coefficients that estimate causal effects. Using simulation studies modeling Weibull-distributed survival times, we compare statistical properties of mediation analyses incorporating PH and AFT approaches (employing SAS procedures PHREG and LIFEREG, respectively) under varied data conditions, some including censoring. A simulated data set illustrates the findings. AFT models integrate more easily than PH models into mediation models. Furthermore, mediation analyses incorporating LIFEREG produce coefficients that can estimate causal effects, and demonstrate superior statistical properties. Censoring introduces bias in the coefficient estimate representing the treatment effect on outcome-underestimation in LIFEREG, and overestimation in PHREG. With LIFEREG, this bias can be addressed using an alternative estimate obtained from combining other coefficients, whereas this is not possible with PHREG. When Weibull assumptions are not violated, there are compelling advantages to using LIFEREG over PHREG for mediation analyses involving survival-time outcomes. Irrespective of the procedures used, the interpretation of coefficients, effects of censoring on coefficient estimates, and statistical properties should be taken into account when reporting results.

  18. Variable Density Multilayer Insulation for Cryogenic Storage

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hedayat, A.; Brown, T. M.; Hastings, L. J.; Martin, J.

    2000-01-01

    Two analytical models for a foam/Variable Density Multi-Layer Insulation (VD-MLI) system performance are discussed. Both models are one-dimensional and contain three heat transfer mechanisms, namely conduction through the spacer material, radiation between the shields, and conduction through the gas. One model is based on the methodology developed by McIntosh while the other model is based on the Lockheed semi-empirical approach. All models input variables are based on the Multi-purpose Hydrogen Test Bed (MHTB) geometry and available values for material properties and empirical solid conduction coefficient. Heat flux predictions are in good agreement with the MHTB data, The heat flux predictions are presented for the foam/MLI combinations with 30, 45, 60, and 75 MLI layers

  19. Yielding physically-interpretable emulators - A Sparse PCA approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Galelli, S.; Alsahaf, A.; Giuliani, M.; Castelletti, A.

    2015-12-01

    Projection-based techniques, such as Principal Orthogonal Decomposition (POD), are a common approach to surrogate high-fidelity process-based models by lower order dynamic emulators. With POD, the dimensionality reduction is achieved by using observations, or 'snapshots' - generated with the high-fidelity model -, to project the entire set of input and state variables of this model onto a smaller set of basis functions that account for most of the variability in the data. While reduction efficiency and variance control of POD techniques are usually very high, the resulting emulators are structurally highly complex and can hardly be given a physically meaningful interpretation as each basis is a projection of the entire set of inputs and states. In this work, we propose a novel approach based on Sparse Principal Component Analysis (SPCA) that combines the several assets of POD methods with the potential for ex-post interpretation of the emulator structure. SPCA reduces the number of non-zero coefficients in the basis functions by identifying a sparse matrix of coefficients. While the resulting set of basis functions may retain less variance of the snapshots, the presence of a few non-zero coefficients assists in the interpretation of the underlying physical processes. The SPCA approach is tested on the reduction of a 1D hydro-ecological model (DYRESM-CAEDYM) used to describe the main ecological and hydrodynamic processes in Tono Dam, Japan. An experimental comparison against a standard POD approach shows that SPCA achieves the same accuracy in emulating a given output variable - for the same level of dimensionality reduction - while yielding better insights of the main process dynamics.

  20. Forecasting models for sugi (Cryptomeria japonica D. Don) pollen count showing an alternate dispersal rhythm.

    PubMed

    Ito, Yukiko; Hattori, Reiko; Mase, Hiroki; Watanabe, Masako; Shiotani, Itaru

    2008-12-01

    Pollen information is indispensable for allergic individuals and clinicians. This study aimed to develop forecasting models for the total annual count of airborne pollen grains based on data monitored over the last 20 years at the Mie Chuo Medical Center, Tsu, Mie, Japan. Airborne pollen grains were collected using a Durham sampler. Total annual pollen count and pollen count from October to December (OD pollen count) of the previous year were transformed to logarithms. Regression analysis of the total pollen count was performed using variables such as the OD pollen count and the maximum temperature for mid-July of the previous year. Time series analysis revealed an alternate rhythm of the series of total pollen count. The alternate rhythm consisted of a cyclic alternation of an "on" year (high pollen count) and an "off" year (low pollen count). This rhythm was used as a dummy variable in regression equations. Of the three models involving the OD pollen count, a multiple regression equation that included the alternate rhythm variable and the interaction of this rhythm with OD pollen count showed a high coefficient of determination (0.844). Of the three models involving the maximum temperature for mid-July, those including the alternate rhythm variable and the interaction of this rhythm with maximum temperature had the highest coefficient of determination (0.925). An alternate pollen dispersal rhythm represented by a dummy variable in the multiple regression analysis plays a key role in improving forecasting models for the total annual sugi pollen count.

  1. Atmospheric form drag over Arctic sea ice derived from high-resolution IceBridge elevation data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Petty, A.; Tsamados, M.; Kurtz, N. T.

    2016-02-01

    Here we present a detailed analysis of atmospheric form drag over Arctic sea ice, using high resolution, three-dimensional surface elevation data from the NASA Operation IceBridge Airborne Topographic Mapper (ATM) laser altimeter. Surface features in the sea ice cover are detected using a novel feature-picking algorithm. We derive information regarding the height, spacing and orientation of unique surface features from 2009-2014 across both first-year and multiyear ice regimes. The topography results are used to explicitly calculate atmospheric form drag coefficients; utilizing existing form drag parameterizations. The atmospheric form drag coefficients show strong regional variability, mainly due to variability in ice type/age. The transition from a perennial to a seasonal ice cover therefore suggest a decrease in the atmospheric form drag coefficients over Arctic sea ice in recent decades. These results are also being used to calibrate a recent form drag parameterization scheme included in the sea ice model CICE, to improve the representation of form drag over Arctic sea ice in global climate models.

  2. Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationship of Insecticidal Activity of Benzyl Ether Diamidine Derivatives

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhai, Mengting; Chen, Yan; Li, Jing; Zhou, Jun

    2017-12-01

    The molecular electrongativity distance vector (MEDV-13) was used to describe the molecular structure of benzyl ether diamidine derivatives in this paper, Based on MEDV-13, The three-parameter (M 3, M 15, M 47) QSAR model of insecticidal activity (pIC 50) for 60 benzyl ether diamidine derivatives was constructed by leaps-and-bounds regression (LBR) . The traditional correlation coefficient (R) and the cross-validation correlation coefficient (R CV ) were 0.975 and 0.971, respectively. The robustness of the regression model was validated by Jackknife method, the correlation coefficient R were between 0.971 and 0.983. Meanwhile, the independent variables in the model were tested to be no autocorrelation. The regression results indicate that the model has good robust and predictive capabilities. The research would provide theoretical guidance for the development of new generation of anti African trypanosomiasis drugs with efficiency and low toxicity.

  3. STS-35 Columbia, OV-102, crew eats preflight breakfast at KSC O and C Bldg

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1990-01-01

    STS-35 crewmembers eat preflight breakfast at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Operations and Checkout (O and C) Building before boarding Columbia, Orbiter Vehicle (OV) 102. Sitting around table (left to right) are Mission Specialist (MS) Robert A.R. Parker, Payload Specialist Ronald A. Parise, Pilot Guy S. Gardner, Commander Vance D. Brand, Payload Specialist Sameul T. Durrance, MS Jeffrey A. Hoffman, and MS John M. Lounge. A cake decorated with the STS-35 mission insignia and silk flowers arranged in a shuttle model's payload bay (PLB) are in the center of the table.

  4. Sensitivity Analysis of Empirical Parameters in the Ionosphere-Plasmasphere Model

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2011-03-01

    IFM output grid (Gardner , 2010). The longitudes have to be fit as well because the IPM flux tubes form a type of ‘ S ...n d 2 0 d a y ru n , a n d th e ri g h t p lo t is th e d iff e re n c e . A ft e r d a y fi v e , th e m o d e l o u tp u t h a s re a ch e d st e a ...lo c a ti o n s * . T h

  5. Assessing Student Learning through Multiple Intelligences.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McClaskey, Janet

    1995-01-01

    Gives practical examples of multiple intelligences in the English classroom. Discusses Howard Gardner's "radicalism,""teaching" intelligence, teaching literature and multiple intelligences, and how a student developed strength in his own intelligences through poetry. (RS)

  6. The Dynamics of Creativity & the Courage to BE

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abraham, Frederick David

    The following sections are included: * Preliminary Note * Definitions Of Creativity * American Heritage (Morris, 1969-78)55 * Howard Gardner (1993)33 * Stephen Nachmanovich (1990)58 * Dynamical Metaphor * Literary, Philosophic, and Religious Roots of Ideas of Creativity * Myth * Mysticism * Existentialism * Psychological Analysis of Creativity * Barman (& Freud), The Two Faces of Creativity (1989)18 * Stephen Nachmanovich, Free Play: Improvisation in Life and Art (1990)58 * Rollo May Man's Search for Himself, Chap 6, The Creative Conscience (1953)53. * Joy P. Guilford, The Psychometric Approach. (1950,1953)37,38 * Wolfgang Köhler, The Mentality of Apes (1925)46,47 * Csitszentmihalyi, Humanistic Attributional Approaches; Flow(1990)25; The Evolving Mind (1993)26 * Howard Gardner, Creating Minds (1993)33 * Summary of Dynamical Concepts Involved In Creativity * Self-Organizational Bifurcations are Creativity * Chaos and Instability Facilitate Creativity * Chaos at the Controls * Summary * Acknowledgement * References

  7. Effect of ion beam on the characteristics of ion acoustic Gardner solitons and double layers in a multicomponent superthermal plasma

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kaur, Nimardeep; Singh, Kuldeep; Saini, N. S.

    2017-09-01

    The nonlinear propagation of ion acoustic solitary waves (IASWs) is investigated in an unmagnetized plasma composed of a positive warm ion fluid, two temperature electrons obeying kappa type distribution and penetrated by a positive ion beam. The reductive perturbation method is used to derive the nonlinear equations, namely, Korteweg-de Vries (KdV), modified KdV (mKdV), and Gardner equations. The characteristic features of both compressive and rarefactive nonlinear excitations from the solution of these equations are studied and compared in the context with the observation of the He+ beam in the polar cap region near solar maximum by the Dynamics Explorer 1 satellite. It is observed that the superthermality and density of cold electrons, number density, and temperature of the positive ion beam crucially modify the basic properties of compressive and rarefactive IASWs in the KdV and mKdV regimes. It is further analyzed that the amplitude and width of Gardner solitons are appreciably affected by different plasma parameters. The characteristics of double layers are also studied in detail below the critical density of cold electrons. The theoretical results may be useful for the observation of nonlinear excitations in laboratory and ion beam driven plasmas in the polar cap region near solar maximum and polar ionosphere as well in Saturn's magnetosphere, solar wind, pulsar magnetosphere, etc., where the population of two temperature superthermal electrons is present.

  8. Extending the Constant Coefficient Solution Technique to Variable Coefficient Ordinary Differential Equations

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mohammed, Ahmed; Zeleke, Aklilu

    2015-01-01

    We introduce a class of second-order ordinary differential equations (ODEs) with variable coefficients whose closed-form solutions can be obtained by the same method used to solve ODEs with constant coefficients. General solutions for the homogeneous case are discussed.

  9. Proportional hazards model with varying coefficients for length-biased data.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Feipeng; Chen, Xuerong; Zhou, Yong

    2014-01-01

    Length-biased data arise in many important applications including epidemiological cohort studies, cancer prevention trials and studies of labor economics. Such data are also often subject to right censoring due to loss of follow-up or the end of study. In this paper, we consider a proportional hazards model with varying coefficients for right-censored and length-biased data, which is used to study the interact effect nonlinearly of covariates with an exposure variable. A local estimating equation method is proposed for the unknown coefficients and the intercept function in the model. The asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators are established by using the martingale theory and kernel smoothing techniques. Our simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed estimators have an excellent finite-sample performance. The Channing House data is analyzed to demonstrate the applications of the proposed method.

  10. A Generic Nonlinear Aerodynamic Model for Aircraft

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Grauer, Jared A.; Morelli, Eugene A.

    2014-01-01

    A generic model of the aerodynamic coefficients was developed using wind tunnel databases for eight different aircraft and multivariate orthogonal functions. For each database and each coefficient, models were determined using polynomials expanded about the state and control variables, and an othgonalization procedure. A predicted squared-error criterion was used to automatically select the model terms. Modeling terms picked in at least half of the analyses, which totalled 45 terms, were retained to form the generic nonlinear aerodynamic (GNA) model. Least squares was then used to estimate the model parameters and associated uncertainty that best fit the GNA model to each database. Nonlinear flight simulations were used to demonstrate that the GNA model produces accurate trim solutions, local behavior (modal frequencies and damping ratios), and global dynamic behavior (91% accurate state histories and 80% accurate aerodynamic coefficient histories) under large-amplitude excitation. This compact aerodynamics model can be used to decrease on-board memory storage requirements, quickly change conceptual aircraft models, provide smooth analytical functions for control and optimization applications, and facilitate real-time parametric system identification.

  11. QSAR modeling of flotation collectors using principal components extracted from topological indices.

    PubMed

    Natarajan, R; Nirdosh, Inderjit; Basak, Subhash C; Mills, Denise R

    2002-01-01

    Several topological indices were calculated for substituted-cupferrons that were tested as collectors for the froth flotation of uranium. The principal component analysis (PCA) was used for data reduction. Seven principal components (PC) were found to account for 98.6% of the variance among the computed indices. The principal components thus extracted were used in stepwise regression analyses to construct regression models for the prediction of separation efficiencies (Es) of the collectors. A two-parameter model with a correlation coefficient of 0.889 and a three-parameter model with a correlation coefficient of 0.913 were formed. PCs were found to be better than partition coefficient to form regression equations, and inclusion of an electronic parameter such as Hammett sigma or quantum mechanically derived electronic charges on the chelating atoms did not improve the correlation coefficient significantly. The method was extended to model the separation efficiencies of mercaptobenzothiazoles (MBT) and aminothiophenols (ATP) used in the flotation of lead and zinc ores, respectively. Five principal components were found to explain 99% of the data variability in each series. A three-parameter equation with correlation coefficient of 0.985 and a two-parameter equation with correlation coefficient of 0.926 were obtained for MBT and ATP, respectively. The amenability of separation efficiencies of chelating collectors to QSAR modeling using PCs based on topological indices might lead to the selection of collectors for synthesis and testing from a virtual database.

  12. Beyond the income inequality hypothesis and human health: a worldwide exploration.

    PubMed

    Idrovo, Alvaro J; Ruiz-Rodríguez, Myriam; Manzano-Patiño, Abigail P

    2010-08-01

    To analyze whether the relationship between income inequality and human health is mediated through social capital, and whether political regime determines differences in income inequality and social capital among countries. Path analysis of cross sectional ecological data from 110 countries. Life expectancy at birth was the outcome variable, and income inequality (measured by the Gini coefficient), social capital (measured by the Corruption Perceptions Index or generalized trust), and political regime (measured by the Index of Freedom) were the predictor variables. Corruption Perceptions Index (an indirect indicator of social capital) was used to include more developing countries in the analysis. The correlation between Gini coefficient and predictor variables was calculated using Spearman's coefficients. The path analysis was designed to assess the effect of income inequality, social capital proxies and political regime on life expectancy. The path coefficients suggest that income inequality has a greater direct effect on life expectancy at birth than through social capital. Political regime acts on life expectancy at birth through income inequality. Income inequality and social capital have direct effects on life expectancy at birth. The "class/welfare regime model" can be useful for understanding social and health inequalities between countries, whereas the "income inequality hypothesis" which is only a partial approach is especially useful for analyzing differences within countries.

  13. Breather management in the derivative nonlinear Schrödinger equation with variable coefficients

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Zhong, Wei-Ping, E-mail: zhongwp6@126.com; Texas A&M University at Qatar, P.O. Box 23874 Doha; Belić, Milivoj

    2015-04-15

    We investigate breather solutions of the generalized derivative nonlinear Schrödinger (DNLS) equation with variable coefficients, which is used in the description of femtosecond optical pulses in inhomogeneous media. The solutions are constructed by means of the similarity transformation, which reduces a particular form of the generalized DNLS equation into the standard one, with constant coefficients. Examples of bright and dark breathers of different orders, that ride on finite backgrounds and may be related to rogue waves, are presented. - Highlights: • Exact solutions of a generalized derivative NLS equation are obtained. • The solutions are produced by means of amore » transformation to the usual integrable equation. • The validity of the solutions is verified by comparing them to numerical counterparts. • Stability of the solutions is checked by means of direct simulations. • The model applies to the propagation of ultrashort pulses in optical media.« less

  14. Bilinear forms and soliton solutions for a fourth-order variable-coefficient nonlinear Schrödinger equation in an inhomogeneous Heisenberg ferromagnetic spin chain or an alpha helical protein

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Jin-Wei; Gao, Yi-Tian; Wang, Qi-Min; Su, Chuan-Qi; Feng, Yu-Jie; Yu, Xin

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, a fourth-order variable-coefficient nonlinear Schrödinger equation is studied, which might describe a one-dimensional continuum anisotropic Heisenberg ferromagnetic spin chain with the octuple-dipole interaction or an alpha helical protein with higher-order excitations and interactions under continuum approximation. With the aid of auxiliary function, we derive the bilinear forms and corresponding constraints on the variable coefficients. Via the symbolic computation, we obtain the Lax pair, infinitely many conservation laws, one-, two- and three-soliton solutions. We discuss the influence of the variable coefficients on the solitons. With different choices of the variable coefficients, we obtain the parabolic, cubic, and periodic solitons, respectively. We analyse the head-on and overtaking interactions between/among the two and three solitons. Interactions between a bound state and a single soliton are displayed with different choices of variable coefficients. We also derive the quasi-periodic formulae for the three cases of the bound states.

  15. The Routine Fitting of Kinetic Data to Models

    PubMed Central

    Berman, Mones; Shahn, Ezra; Weiss, Marjory F.

    1962-01-01

    A mathematical formalism is presented for use with digital computers to permit the routine fitting of data to physical and mathematical models. Given a set of data, the mathematical equations describing a model, initial conditions for an experiment, and initial estimates for the values of model parameters, the computer program automatically proceeds to obtain a least squares fit of the data by an iterative adjustment of the values of the parameters. When the experimental measures are linear combinations of functions, the linear coefficients for a least squares fit may also be calculated. The values of both the parameters of the model and the coefficients for the sum of functions may be unknown independent variables, unknown dependent variables, or known constants. In the case of dependence, only linear dependencies are provided for in routine use. The computer program includes a number of subroutines, each one of which performs a special task. This permits flexibility in choosing various types of solutions and procedures. One subroutine, for example, handles linear differential equations, another, special non-linear functions, etc. The use of analytic or numerical solutions of equations is possible. PMID:13867975

  16. Impact of measurement invariance on construct correlations, mean differences, and relations with external correlates: an illustrative example using Big Five and RIASEC measures.

    PubMed

    Schmitt, Neal; Golubovich, Juliya; Leong, Frederick T L

    2011-12-01

    The impact of measurement invariance and the provision for partial invariance in confirmatory factor analytic models on factor intercorrelations, latent mean differences, and estimates of relations with external variables is investigated for measures of two sets of widely assessed constructs: Big Five personality and the six Holland interests (RIASEC). In comparing models that include provisions for partial invariance with models that do not, the results indicate quite small differences in parameter estimates involving the relations between factors, one relatively large standardized mean difference in factors between the subgroups compared and relatively small differences in the regression coefficients when the factors are used to predict external variables. The results provide support for the use of partially invariant models, but there does not seem to be a great deal of difference between structural coefficients when the measurement model does or does not include separate estimates of subgroup parameters that differ across subgroups. Future research should include simulations in which the impact of various factors related to invariance is estimated.

  17. Simulation of genotype-by-environment interactions on irrigated soybean yields in the U.S. Midsouth

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Dynamic crop models that incorporate the effect of environmental variables can potentially explain yield differences associated with location, year, planting date, and cultivars with different growing cycles. Soybean (Glycine max (L.) Mer.) cultivar coefficients for the DSSAT-CROPGRO model were cali...

  18. Three Cs in measurement models: causal indicators, composite indicators, and covariates.

    PubMed

    Bollen, Kenneth A; Bauldry, Shawn

    2011-09-01

    In the last 2 decades attention to causal (and formative) indicators has grown. Accompanying this growth has been the belief that one can classify indicators into 2 categories: effect (reflective) indicators and causal (formative) indicators. We argue that the dichotomous view is too simple. Instead, there are effect indicators and 3 types of variables on which a latent variable depends: causal indicators, composite (formative) indicators, and covariates (the "Three Cs"). Causal indicators have conceptual unity, and their effects on latent variables are structural. Covariates are not concept measures, but are variables to control to avoid bias in estimating the relations between measures and latent variables. Composite (formative) indicators form exact linear combinations of variables that need not share a concept. Their coefficients are weights rather than structural effects, and composites are a matter of convenience. The failure to distinguish the Three Cs has led to confusion and questions, such as, Are causal and formative indicators different names for the same indicator type? Should an equation with causal or formative indicators have an error term? Are the coefficients of causal indicators less stable than effect indicators? Distinguishing between causal and composite indicators and covariates goes a long way toward eliminating this confusion. We emphasize the key role that subject matter expertise plays in making these distinctions. We provide new guidelines for working with these variable types, including identification of models, scaling latent variables, parameter estimation, and validity assessment. A running empirical example on self-perceived health illustrates our major points.

  19. Multiresponse semiparametric regression for modelling the effect of regional socio-economic variables on the use of information technology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wibowo, Wahyu; Wene, Chatrien; Budiantara, I. Nyoman; Permatasari, Erma Oktania

    2017-03-01

    Multiresponse semiparametric regression is simultaneous equation regression model and fusion of parametric and nonparametric model. The regression model comprise several models and each model has two components, parametric and nonparametric. The used model has linear function as parametric and polynomial truncated spline as nonparametric component. The model can handle both linearity and nonlinearity relationship between response and the sets of predictor variables. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the application of the regression model for modeling of effect of regional socio-economic on use of information technology. More specific, the response variables are percentage of households has access to internet and percentage of households has personal computer. Then, predictor variables are percentage of literacy people, percentage of electrification and percentage of economic growth. Based on identification of the relationship between response and predictor variable, economic growth is treated as nonparametric predictor and the others are parametric predictors. The result shows that the multiresponse semiparametric regression can be applied well as indicate by the high coefficient determination, 90 percent.

  20. Uncertainty Analysis of Downscaled CMIP5 Precipitation Data for Louisiana, USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sumi, S. J.; Tamanna, M.; Chivoiu, B.; Habib, E. H.

    2014-12-01

    The downscaled CMIP3 and CMIP5 Climate and Hydrology Projections dataset contains fine spatial resolution translations of climate projections over the contiguous United States developed using two downscaling techniques (monthly Bias Correction Spatial Disaggregation (BCSD) and daily Bias Correction Constructed Analogs (BCCA)). The objective of this study is to assess the uncertainty of the CMIP5 downscaled general circulation models (GCM). We performed an analysis of the daily, monthly, seasonal and annual variability of precipitation downloaded from the Downscaled CMIP3 and CMIP5 Climate and Hydrology Projections website for the state of Louisiana, USA at 0.125° x 0.125° resolution. A data set of daily gridded observations of precipitation of a rectangular boundary covering Louisiana is used to assess the validity of 21 downscaled GCMs for the 1950-1999 period. The following statistics are computed using the CMIP5 observed dataset with respect to the 21 models: the correlation coefficient, the bias, the normalized bias, the mean absolute error (MAE), the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and the root mean square error (RMSE). A measure of variability simulated by each model is computed as the ratio of its standard deviation, in both space and time, to the corresponding standard deviation of the observation. The correlation and MAPE statistics are also computed for each of the nine climate divisions of Louisiana. Some of the patterns that we observed are: 1) Average annual precipitation rate shows similar spatial distribution for all the models within a range of 3.27 to 4.75 mm/day from Northwest to Southeast. 2) Standard deviation of summer (JJA) precipitation (mm/day) for the models maintains lower value than the observation whereas they have similar spatial patterns and range of values in winter (NDJ). 3) Correlation coefficients of annual precipitation of models against observation have a range of -0.48 to 0.36 with variable spatial distribution by model. 4) Most of the models show negative correlation coefficients in summer and positive in winter. 5) MAE shows similar spatial distribution for all the models within a range of 5.20 to 7.43 mm/day from Northwest to Southeast of Louisiana. 6) Highest values of correlation coefficients are found at seasonal scale within a range of 0.36 to 0.46.

  1. Wind Tunnel Database Development using Modern Experiment Design and Multivariate Orthogonal Functions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Morelli, Eugene A.; DeLoach, Richard

    2003-01-01

    A wind tunnel experiment for characterizing the aerodynamic and propulsion forces and moments acting on a research model airplane is described. The model airplane called the Free-flying Airplane for Sub-scale Experimental Research (FASER), is a modified off-the-shelf radio-controlled model airplane, with 7 ft wingspan, a tractor propeller driven by an electric motor, and aerobatic capability. FASER was tested in the NASA Langley 12-foot Low-Speed Wind Tunnel, using a combination of traditional sweeps and modern experiment design. Power level was included as an independent variable in the wind tunnel test, to allow characterization of power effects on aerodynamic forces and moments. A modeling technique that employs multivariate orthogonal functions was used to develop accurate analytic models for the aerodynamic and propulsion force and moment coefficient dependencies from the wind tunnel data. Efficient methods for generating orthogonal modeling functions, expanding the orthogonal modeling functions in terms of ordinary polynomial functions, and analytical orthogonal blocking were developed and discussed. The resulting models comprise a set of smooth, differentiable functions for the non-dimensional aerodynamic force and moment coefficients in terms of ordinary polynomials in the independent variables, suitable for nonlinear aircraft simulation.

  2. Monte Carlo calibration of avalanches described as Coulomb fluid flows.

    PubMed

    Ancey, Christophe

    2005-07-15

    The idea that snow avalanches might behave as granular flows, and thus be described as Coulomb fluid flows, came up very early in the scientific study of avalanches, but it is not until recently that field evidence has been provided that demonstrates the reliability of this idea. This paper aims to specify the bulk frictional behaviour of snow avalanches by seeking a universal friction law. Since the bulk friction coefficient cannot be measured directly in the field, the friction coefficient must be calibrated by adjusting the model outputs to closely match the recorded data. Field data are readily available but are of poor quality and accuracy. We used Bayesian inference techniques to specify the model uncertainty relative to data uncertainty and to robustly and efficiently solve the inverse problem. A sample of 173 events taken from seven paths in the French Alps was used. The first analysis showed that the friction coefficient behaved as a random variable with a smooth and bell-shaped empirical distribution function. Evidence was provided that the friction coefficient varied with the avalanche volume, but any attempt to adjust a one-to-one relationship relating friction to volume produced residual errors that could be as large as three times the maximum uncertainty of field data. A tentative universal friction law is proposed: the friction coefficient is a random variable, the distribution of which can be approximated by a normal distribution with a volume-dependent mean.

  3. Equations for Estimating Biomass of Herbaceous and Woody Vegetation in Early-Successional Southern Appalachian Pine-Hardwood Forests

    Treesearch

    Katherine J. Elliott; Barton D. Clinton

    1993-01-01

    Allometric equations were developed to predict aboveground dry weight of herbaceous and woody species on prescribe-burned sites in the Southern Appalachians. Best-fit least-square regression models were developed using diamet,er, height, or both, as the independent variables and dry weight as the dependent variable. Coefficients of determination for the selected total...

  4. Analysis of a hydraulic a scaled asymmetric labyrinth weir with Ansys-Fluent

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Otálora Carmona, Andrés Humberto; Santos Granados, Germán Ricardo

    2017-04-01

    This document presents the three dimensional computational modeling of a labyrinth weir, using the version 17.0 of the Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) software ANSYS - FLUENT. The computational characteristics of the model such as the geometry consideration, the mesh sensitivity, the numerical scheme, and the turbulence modeling parameters. The volume fraction of the water mixture - air, the velocity profile, the jet trajectory, the discharge coefficient and the velocity field are analyzed. With the purpose of evaluating the hydraulic behavior of the labyrinth weir of the Naveta's hydroelectric, in Apulo - Cundinamarca, was development a 1:21 scale model of the original structure, which was tested in the laboratory of the hydraulic studies in the Escuela Colombiana de Ingeniería Julio Garavito. The scale model of the structure was initially developed to determine the variability of the discharge coefficient with respect to the flow rate and their influence on the water level. It was elaborate because the original weir (labyrinth weir with not symmetrical rectangular section), did not have the capacity to work with the design flow of 31 m3/s, because over 15 m3/s, there were overflows in the adduction channel. This variation of efficiency was due to the thickening of the lateral walls by structural requirements. During the physical modeling doing by Rodríguez, H. and Matamoros H. (2015) in the test channel, it was found that, with the increase in the width of the side walls, the discharge coefficient is reduced an average by 34%, generating an increase of the water level by 0.26 m above the structure. This document aims to develop a splicing methodology between the physical models of a labyrinth weir and numerical modeling, using concepts of computational fluid dynamics and finite volume theories. For this, was carried out a detailed analysis of the variations in the different directions of the main hydraulic variables involved in the behavior, such as, the components of the velocity and the distribution of pressures, For the numerical development, we worked with ANSYS - FLUENT software modeling version 17.0. Initially, a digital model of a conventional triangular weir with a vertical angle of 102° was developed in order to find the most appropriate numerical scheme and conditions. The numerical results were compared with conventional theories, evaluating the path and discharge coefficient. Subsequently, one of the five cycles that compose the labyrinth weir was simulated, evaluating the behavior of the discharge coefficient, the water level, the streamline and the velocity field, with the purpose of understanding the hydraulic variables that are related in these geometries. According to the previous results, the numerical modeling of labyrinth weir was performed, comparing the obtained results with the data of the physical scale model, analyzing the variation of the discharge coefficient, the streamline, velocity field, pressure distribution and shear stress. Finally, based on the lessons learned from physical and numerical modeling, a methodological guide was created for any user with a computational and hydraulic fluid mechanics knowledge to develop a good practice of a computational and physical modeling.

  5. Influence of science and technology magnet middle schools on students' motivation and achievement in science

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Allen, David

    Some informal discussions among educators regarding motivation of students and academic performance have included the topic of magnet schools. The premise is that a focused theme, such as an aspect of science, positively affects student motivation and academic achievement. However, there is limited research involving magnet schools and their influence on student motivation and academic performance. This study provides empirical data for the discussion about magnet schools influence on motivation and academic ability. This study utilized path analysis in a structural equation modeling framework to simultaneously investigate the relationships between demographic exogenous independent variables, the independent variable of attending a science or technology magnet middle school, and the dependent variables of motivation to learn science and academic achievement in science. Due to the categorical nature of the variables, Bayesian statistical analysis was used to calculate the path coefficients and the standardized effects for each relationship in the model. The coefficients of determination were calculated to determine the amount of variance each path explained. Only five of 21 paths had statistical significance. Only one of the five statistically significant paths (Attended Magnet School to Motivation to Learn Science) explained a noteworthy amount (45.8%) of the variance.

  6. Generalized Path Analysis and Generalized Simultaneous Equations Model for Recursive Systems with Responses of Mixed Types

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tsai, Tien-Lung; Shau, Wen-Yi; Hu, Fu-Chang

    2006-01-01

    This article generalizes linear path analysis (PA) and simultaneous equations models (SiEM) to deal with mixed responses of different types in a recursive or triangular system. An efficient instrumental variable (IV) method for estimating the structural coefficients of a 2-equation partially recursive generalized path analysis (GPA) model and…

  7. MANCOVA for one way classification with homogeneity of regression coefficient vectors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mokesh Rayalu, G.; Ravisankar, J.; Mythili, G. Y.

    2017-11-01

    The MANOVA and MANCOVA are the extensions of the univariate ANOVA and ANCOVA techniques to multidimensional or vector valued observations. The assumption of a Gaussian distribution has been replaced with the Multivariate Gaussian distribution for the vectors data and residual term variables in the statistical models of these techniques. The objective of MANCOVA is to determine if there are statistically reliable mean differences that can be demonstrated between groups later modifying the newly created variable. When randomization assignment of samples or subjects to groups is not possible, multivariate analysis of covariance (MANCOVA) provides statistical matching of groups by adjusting dependent variables as if all subjects scored the same on the covariates. In this research article, an extension has been made to the MANCOVA technique with more number of covariates and homogeneity of regression coefficient vectors is also tested.

  8. Factors in Variability of Serial Gabapentin Concentrations in Elderly Patients with Epilepsy.

    PubMed

    Conway, Jeannine M; Eberly, Lynn E; Collins, Joseph F; Macias, Flavia M; Ramsay, R Eugene; Leppik, Ilo E; Birnbaum, Angela K

    2017-10-01

    To characterize and quantify the variability of serial gabapentin concentrations in elderly patients with epilepsy. This study included 83 patients (age ≥ 60 yrs) from an 18-center randomized double-blind double-dummy parallel study from the Veterans Affairs Cooperative 428 Study. All patients were taking 1500 mg/day gabapentin. Within-person coefficient of variation (CV) in gabapentin concentrations, measured weekly to bimonthly for up to 52 weeks, then quarterly, was computed. Impact of patient characteristics on gabapentin concentrations (linear mixed model) and CV (linear regression) were estimated. A total of 482 gabapentin concentration measurements were available for analysis. Gabapentin concentrations and intrapatient CVs ranged from 0.5 to 22.6 μg/ml (mean 7.9 μg/ml, standard deviation [SD] 4.1 μg/ml) and 2% to 79% (mean 27.9%, SD 15.3%), respectively, across all visits. Intrapatient CV was higher by 7.3% for those with a body mass index of ≥ 30 kg/m 2 (coefficient = 7.3, p=0.04). CVs were on average 0.5% higher for each 1-unit higher CV in creatinine clearance (coefficient = 0.5, p=0.03) and 1.2% higher for each 1-hour longer mean time after dose (coefficient = 1.2, p=0.04). Substantial intrapatient variability in serial gabapentin concentration was noted in elderly patients with epilepsy. Creatinine clearance, time of sampling relative to dose, and obesity were found to be positively associated with variability. © 2017 Pharmacotherapy Publications, Inc.

  9. A Tree Taper Model Based on Similar Triangles and Use of Crown Ratio as a Measure of Form in Taper Equations for Longleaf Pine

    Treesearch

    Dennis J. Shaw; Ralph S. Meldahl; John S. Kush; Greg L. Somers

    2003-01-01

    We used data from 322 natural longleaf pine (Pinus palustris Mill.) trees to include crown ratio as a continuous variable in taper equations. The data were divided into 10 crown-ratio classes and fitted taper equations into each class to detect trends in the coefficients. For application to longleaf pine, we replaced coefficients that exhibited a...

  10. Numerical Optimization of Synergetic Maneuvers

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1994-06-01

    7 A. EQ U A TION S O F M O TION ..................................................................... 7 B. CO N TRO L LA ...0O V2 AR =g-- r which yields the control programs D T=- cosa L + Tsina a = free variable 3. Aerobang The first step in modeling the aerobang control...coefficients as follows: sina cosa 7CL 37 where a is the angle of attack, CA is the axial direction aerodynamic coefficient, and CN is the normal direction

  11. Agreement between ambulatory, home, and office blood pressure variability.

    PubMed

    Juhanoja, Eeva P; Niiranen, Teemu J; Johansson, Jouni K; Puukka, Pauli J; Jula, Antti M

    2016-01-01

    Ambulatory, home, and office blood pressure (BP) variability are often treated as a single entity. Our aim was to assess the agreement between these three methods for measuring BP variability. Twenty-four-hour ambulatory BP monitoring, 28 home BP measurements, and eight office BP measurements were performed on 461 population-based or hypertensive participants. Five variability indices were calculated for all measurement methods: SD, coefficient of variation, maximum-minimum difference, variability independent of the mean, and average real variability. Pearson's correlation coefficients were calculated for indices measured with different methods. The agreement between different measurement methods on the diagnoses of extreme BP variability (participants in the highest decile of variability) was assessed with kappa (κ) coefficients. SBP/DBP variability was greater in daytime (coefficient of variation: 9.8 ± 2.9/11.9 ± 3.6) and night-time ambulatory measurements (coefficient of variation: 8.6 ± 3.4/12.1 ± 4.5) than in home (coefficient of variation: 4.4 ± 1.8/4.7 ± 1.9) and office (coefficient of variation: 4.6 ± 2.4/5.2 ± 2.6) measurements (P < 0.001/0.001 for all). Pearson's correlation coefficients for systolic/diastolic daytime or night-time ambulatory-home, ambulatory-office, and home-office variability indices ranged between 0.07-0.25/0.12-0.23, 0.13-0.26/0.03-0.22 and 0.13-0.24/0.10-0.19, respectively, indicating, at most, a weak positive (r < 0.3) relationship. The agreement between measurement methods on diagnoses of extreme SBP/DBP variability was only slight (κ < 0.2), with the κ coefficients for daytime and night-time ambulatory-home, ambulatory-office, and home-office agreement varying between-0.014-0.20/0.061-0.15, 0.037-0.18/0.082-0.15, and 0.082-0.13/0.045-0.15, respectively. Shorter-term and longer-term BP variability assessed by different methods of BP measurement seem to correlate only weakly with each other. Our study suggests that BP variability measured by different methods and timeframes may reflect different phenomena, not a single entity.

  12. [Quantitative structure-gas chromatographic retention relationship of polycyclic aromatic sulfur heterocycles using molecular electronegativity-distance vector].

    PubMed

    Li, Zhenghua; Cheng, Fansheng; Xia, Zhining

    2011-01-01

    The chemical structures of 114 polycyclic aromatic sulfur heterocycles (PASHs) have been studied by molecular electronegativity-distance vector (MEDV). The linear relationships between gas chromatographic retention index and the MEDV have been established by a multiple linear regression (MLR) model. The results of variable selection by stepwise multiple regression (SMR) and the powerful predictive abilities of the optimization model appraised by leave-one-out cross-validation showed that the optimization model with the correlation coefficient (R) of 0.994 7 and the cross-validated correlation coefficient (Rcv) of 0.994 0 possessed the best statistical quality. Furthermore, when the 114 PASHs compounds were divided into calibration and test sets in the ratio of 2:1, the statistical analysis showed our models possesses almost equal statistical quality, the very similar regression coefficients and the good robustness. The quantitative structure-retention relationship (QSRR) model established may provide a convenient and powerful method for predicting the gas chromatographic retention of PASHs.

  13. Impact Of The Material Variability On The Stamping Process: Numerical And Analytical Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ledoux, Yann; Sergent, Alain; Arrieux, Robert

    2007-05-01

    The finite element simulation is a very useful tool in the deep drawing industry. It is used more particularly for the development and the validation of new stamping tools. It allows to decrease cost and time for the tooling design and set up. But one of the most important difficulties to have a good agreement between the simulation and the real process comes from the definition of the numerical conditions (mesh, punch travel speed, limit conditions,…) and the parameters which model the material behavior. Indeed, in press shop, when the sheet set changes, often a variation of the formed part geometry is observed according to the variability of the material properties between these different sets. This last parameter represents probably one of the main source of process deviation when the process is set up. That's why it is important to study the influence of material data variation on the geometry of a classical stamped part. The chosen geometry is an omega shaped part because of its simplicity and it is representative one in the automotive industry (car body reinforcement). Moreover, it shows important springback deviations. An isotropic behaviour law is assumed. The impact of the statistical deviation of the three law coefficients characterizing the material and the friction coefficient around their nominal values is tested. A Gaussian distribution is supposed and their impact on the geometry variation is studied by FE simulation. An other approach is envisaged consisting in modeling the process variability by a mathematical model and then, in function of the input parameters variability, it is proposed to define an analytical model which leads to find the part geometry variability around the nominal shape. These two approaches allow to predict the process capability as a function of the material parameter variability.

  14. Statistical validity of using ratio variables in human kinetics research.

    PubMed

    Liu, Yuanlong; Schutz, Robert W

    2003-09-01

    The purposes of this study were to investigate the validity of the simple ratio and three alternative deflation models and examine how the variation of the numerator and denominator variables affects the reliability of a ratio variable. A simple ratio and three alternative deflation models were fitted to four empirical data sets, and common criteria were applied to determine the best model for deflation. Intraclass correlation was used to examine the component effect on the reliability of a ratio variable. The results indicate that the validity, of a deflation model depends on the statistical characteristics of the particular component variables used, and an optimal deflation model for all ratio variables may not exist. Therefore, it is recommended that different models be fitted to each empirical data set to determine the best deflation model. It was found that the reliability of a simple ratio is affected by the coefficients of variation and the within- and between-trial correlations between the numerator and denominator variables. It was recommended that researchers should compute the reliability of the derived ratio scores and not assume that strong reliabilities in the numerator and denominator measures automatically lead to high reliability in the ratio measures.

  15. Mediation Analysis with Survival Outcomes: Accelerated Failure Time vs. Proportional Hazards Models

    PubMed Central

    Gelfand, Lois A.; MacKinnon, David P.; DeRubeis, Robert J.; Baraldi, Amanda N.

    2016-01-01

    Objective: Survival time is an important type of outcome variable in treatment research. Currently, limited guidance is available regarding performing mediation analyses with survival outcomes, which generally do not have normally distributed errors, and contain unobserved (censored) events. We present considerations for choosing an approach, using a comparison of semi-parametric proportional hazards (PH) and fully parametric accelerated failure time (AFT) approaches for illustration. Method: We compare PH and AFT models and procedures in their integration into mediation models and review their ability to produce coefficients that estimate causal effects. Using simulation studies modeling Weibull-distributed survival times, we compare statistical properties of mediation analyses incorporating PH and AFT approaches (employing SAS procedures PHREG and LIFEREG, respectively) under varied data conditions, some including censoring. A simulated data set illustrates the findings. Results: AFT models integrate more easily than PH models into mediation models. Furthermore, mediation analyses incorporating LIFEREG produce coefficients that can estimate causal effects, and demonstrate superior statistical properties. Censoring introduces bias in the coefficient estimate representing the treatment effect on outcome—underestimation in LIFEREG, and overestimation in PHREG. With LIFEREG, this bias can be addressed using an alternative estimate obtained from combining other coefficients, whereas this is not possible with PHREG. Conclusions: When Weibull assumptions are not violated, there are compelling advantages to using LIFEREG over PHREG for mediation analyses involving survival-time outcomes. Irrespective of the procedures used, the interpretation of coefficients, effects of censoring on coefficient estimates, and statistical properties should be taken into account when reporting results. PMID:27065906

  16. Advanced colorectal neoplasia risk stratification by penalized logistic regression.

    PubMed

    Lin, Yunzhi; Yu, Menggang; Wang, Sijian; Chappell, Richard; Imperiale, Thomas F

    2016-08-01

    Colorectal cancer is the second leading cause of death from cancer in the United States. To facilitate the efficiency of colorectal cancer screening, there is a need to stratify risk for colorectal cancer among the 90% of US residents who are considered "average risk." In this article, we investigate such risk stratification rules for advanced colorectal neoplasia (colorectal cancer and advanced, precancerous polyps). We use a recently completed large cohort study of subjects who underwent a first screening colonoscopy. Logistic regression models have been used in the literature to estimate the risk of advanced colorectal neoplasia based on quantifiable risk factors. However, logistic regression may be prone to overfitting and instability in variable selection. Since most of the risk factors in our study have several categories, it was tempting to collapse these categories into fewer risk groups. We propose a penalized logistic regression method that automatically and simultaneously selects variables, groups categories, and estimates their coefficients by penalizing the [Formula: see text]-norm of both the coefficients and their differences. Hence, it encourages sparsity in the categories, i.e. grouping of the categories, and sparsity in the variables, i.e. variable selection. We apply the penalized logistic regression method to our data. The important variables are selected, with close categories simultaneously grouped, by penalized regression models with and without the interactions terms. The models are validated with 10-fold cross-validation. The receiver operating characteristic curves of the penalized regression models dominate the receiver operating characteristic curve of naive logistic regressions, indicating a superior discriminative performance. © The Author(s) 2013.

  17. [Study on HIV prevention related knowledge-motivation-psychological model in men who have sex with men, based on a structural equation model].

    PubMed

    Jiang, Y; Dou, Y L; Cai, A J; Zhang, Z; Tian, T; Dai, J H; Huang, A L

    2016-02-01

    Knowledge-motivation-psychological model was set up and tested through structural equation model to provide evidence on HIV prevention related strategy in Men who have Sex with Men (MSM). Snowball sampling method was used to recruit a total of 550 MSM volunteers from two MSM Non-Governmental Organizations in Urumqi, Xinjiang province. HIV prevention related information on MSM was collected through a questionnaire survey. A total of 477 volunteers showed with complete information. HIV prevention related Knowledge-motivation-psychological model was built under related experience and literature. Relations between knowledge, motivation and psychological was studied, using a ' structural equation model' with data from the fitting questionnaires and modification of the model. Structural equation model presented good fitting results. After revising the fitting index: RMSEA was 0.035, NFI was 0.965 and RFI was 0.920. Thereafter the exogenous latent variables would include knowledge, motivation and psychological effects. The endogenous latent variable appeared as prevention related behaviors. The standardized total effects of motivation, knowledge, psychological on prevention behavior were 0.44, 0.41 and 0.17 respectively. Correlation coefficient of motivation and psychological effects was 0.16. Correlation coefficient on knowledge and psychological effects was -0.17 (P<0.05). Correlation coefficient of knowledge and motivation did not show statistical significance. Knowledge of HIV and motivation of HIV prevention did not show any accordance in MSM population. It was necessary to increase the awareness and to improve the motivation of HIV prevention in MSM population.

  18. Developing a Model for Forecasting Road Traffic Accident (RTA) Fatalities in Yemen

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karim, Fareed M. A.; Abdo Saleh, Ali; Taijoobux, Aref; Ševrović, Marko

    2017-12-01

    The aim of this paper is to develop a model for forecasting RTA fatalities in Yemen. The yearly fatalities was modeled as the dependent variable, while the number of independent variables included the population, number of vehicles, GNP, GDP and Real GDP per capita. It was determined that all these variables are highly correlated with the correlation coefficient (r ≈ 0.9); in order to avoid multicollinearity in the model, a single variable with the highest r value was selected (real GDP per capita). A simple regression model was developed; the model was very good (R2=0.916); however, the residuals were serially correlated. The Prais-Winsten procedure was used to overcome this violation of the regression assumption. The data for a 20-year period from 1991-2010 were analyzed to build the model; the model was validated by using data for the years 2011-2013; the historical fit for the period 1991 - 2011 was very good. Also, the validation for 2011-2013 proved accurate.

  19. LSENS, a general chemical kinetics and sensitivity analysis code for gas-phase reactions: User's guide

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Radhakrishnan, Krishnan; Bittker, David A.

    1993-01-01

    A general chemical kinetics and sensitivity analysis code for complex, homogeneous, gas-phase reactions is described. The main features of the code, LSENS, are its flexibility, efficiency and convenience in treating many different chemical reaction models. The models include static system, steady, one-dimensional, inviscid flow, shock initiated reaction, and a perfectly stirred reactor. In addition, equilibrium computations can be performed for several assigned states. An implicit numerical integration method, which works efficiently for the extremes of very fast and very slow reaction, is used for solving the 'stiff' differential equation systems that arise in chemical kinetics. For static reactions, sensitivity coefficients of all dependent variables and their temporal derivatives with respect to the initial values of dependent variables and/or the rate coefficient parameters can be computed. This paper presents descriptions of the code and its usage, and includes several illustrative example problems.

  20. Investigating different approaches to develop informative priors in hierarchical Bayesian safety performance functions.

    PubMed

    Yu, Rongjie; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed

    2013-07-01

    The Bayesian inference method has been frequently adopted to develop safety performance functions. One advantage of the Bayesian inference is that prior information for the independent variables can be included in the inference procedures. However, there are few studies that discussed how to formulate informative priors for the independent variables and evaluated the effects of incorporating informative priors in developing safety performance functions. This paper addresses this deficiency by introducing four approaches of developing informative priors for the independent variables based on historical data and expert experience. Merits of these informative priors have been tested along with two types of Bayesian hierarchical models (Poisson-gamma and Poisson-lognormal models). Deviance information criterion (DIC), R-square values, and coefficients of variance for the estimations were utilized as evaluation measures to select the best model(s). Comparison across the models indicated that the Poisson-gamma model is superior with a better model fit and it is much more robust with the informative priors. Moreover, the two-stage Bayesian updating informative priors provided the best goodness-of-fit and coefficient estimation accuracies. Furthermore, informative priors for the inverse dispersion parameter have also been introduced and tested. Different types of informative priors' effects on the model estimations and goodness-of-fit have been compared and concluded. Finally, based on the results, recommendations for future research topics and study applications have been made. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Dark solitons for a variable-coefficient higher-order nonlinear Schrödinger equation in the inhomogeneous optical fiber

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, Yan; Tian, Bo; Wu, Xiao-Yu; Liu, Lei; Yuan, Yu-Qiang

    2017-04-01

    Under investigation in this paper is a variable-coefficient higher-order nonlinear Schrödinger equation, which has certain applications in the inhomogeneous optical fiber communication. Through the Hirota method, bilinear forms, dark one- and two-soliton solutions for such an equation are obtained. We graphically study the solitons with d1(z), d2(z) and d3(z), which represent the variable coefficients of the group-velocity dispersion, third-order dispersion and fourth-order dispersion, respectively. With the different choices of the variable coefficients, we obtain the parabolic, periodic and V-shaped dark solitons. Head-on and overtaking collisions are depicted via the dark two soliton solutions. Velocities of the dark solitons are linearly related to d1(z), d2(z) and d3(z), respectively, while the amplitudes of the dark solitons are not related to such variable coefficients.

  2. Volatilization of ketones from water

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rathbun, R.E.; Tai, D.Y.

    1982-01-01

    The overall mass-transfer coefficients for the volatilization from water of acetone, 2-butanone, 2-pentanone, 3-pentanone, 4-methyl-2-pentanone, 2-heptanone, and 2-octanone were measured simultaneously with the oxygen-absorption coefficient in a laboratory stirred water bath. The liquid-film and gas-film coefficients of the two-film model were determined for the ketones from the overall coefficients, and both film resistances were important for volatilization of the ketones.The liquid-film coefficients for the ketones varied with the 0.719 power of the molecular-diffusion coefficient, in agreement with the literature. The liquid-film coefficients showed a variable dependence on molecular weight, with the dependence ranging from the −0.263 power for acetone to the −0.378 power for 2-octanone. This is in contrast with the literature where a constant −0.500 power dependence on the molecular weight is assumed.The gas-film coefficients for the ketones showed no dependence on molecular weight, in contrast with the literature where a −0.500 power is assumed.

  3. Fourier Analysis of First-Overtone RR Lyrae Variables in the LMC

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clement, C. M.; Muzzin, A. V.; Rowe, J. F.; MACHO Collaboration

    2002-05-01

    Simon's (1989, ApJ, 343, L17) Fourier decomposition technique has been applied to the V magnitudes of the first-overtone RR Lyrae (RR1) variables in 16 LMC fields observed by the MACHO collaboration. The Fourier coefficients R21 and φ 31 derived for these stars have been compared with the coefficients of RR1 variables in the galactic globular clusters Omega Centauri, M2, M3, M5, M68, M107 (NGC 6171) and NGC 6441. Our analysis indicates that the majority of the LMC RR1 variables have coefficients similar to those in the Oosterhoff type I (OoI) clusters M3 and M5 and to the OoI variables in Omega Centauri. In a study of hydrodynamic pulsation models of first overtone RR Lyrae variables, Simon & Clement (1993, ApJ, 410, 526) found that the Fourier phase parameter φ 31 depends essentially on mass and luminosity. From this, we conclude that the masses and luminosities of most of the RR1 variables in the LMC are comparable to those of the OoI RR1 variables in Omega Centauri, M3 and M5, a fact that should be considered when RR Lyrae variables are used for determining the distance to the LMC. The MACHO collaboration includes C. Alcock, R. A. Allsman, D. R. Alves, T. S. Axelrod, A. C. Becker, D. P. Bennet, K. H. Cook, A. J. Drake, K. C. Freeman, M. Geha, K. Griest, M. J. Lehner, S. L. Marshall, D. Minniti, C. A. Nelson, B. A. Peterson, P. Popowski, M. R. Pratt, P. J. Quinn, C. W. Stubbs, W. Sutherland, T. Vandehel and D. L. Welch. This research has been supported in part by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada.

  4. Spatial Variability and Distribution of the Metals in Surface Runoff in a Nonferrous Metal Mine

    PubMed Central

    Ren, Bozhi; Chen, Yangbo; Zhu, Guocheng; Wang, Zhenghua; Zheng, Xie

    2016-01-01

    The spatial variation and distribution features of the metals tested in the surface runoff in Xikuangshan Bao Daxing miming area were analyzed by combining statistical methods with a geographic information system (GIS). The results showed that the maximum concentrations of those five kinds of the metals (Sb, Zn, Cu, Pb, and Cd) in the surface runoff of the antimony mining area were lower than the standard value except the concentration of metal Ni. Their concentrations were 497.1, 2.0, 1.8, 22.2, and 22.1 times larger than the standard value, respectively. This metal pollution was mainly concentrated in local areas, which were seriously polluted. The variation coefficient of Sb, Zn, Cu, Ni, Pb, and Cd was between 0.4 to 0.6, wherein the Sb's spatial variability coefficient is 50.56%, indicating a strong variability. Variation coefficients of the rest of metals were less than 50%, suggesting a moderate variability. The spatial structure analysis showed that the squared correlation coefficient (R 2) of the models fitting for Sb, Zn, Cu, Ni, Pb, and Cd was between 0.721 and 0.976; the ratio of the nugget value (C 0) to the abutment value (C + C 0) was between 0.0767 and 0.559; the semivariogram of Sb, Zn, Ni, and Pb was in agreement with a spherical model, while semivariogram of Cu and Cd was in agreement with Gaussian model, and both had a strong spatial correlation. The trend and spatial distribution indicated that those pollution distributions resulting from Ni, Pb, and Cd are similar, mainly concentrated in both ends of north and south in eastern part. The main reasons for the pollution were attributed to the residents living, transportation, and industrial activities; the Sb distribution was concentrated mainly in the central part, of which the pollution was assigned to the mining and the industrial activity; the pollution distributions of Zn and Cu were similar, mainly concentrated in both ends of north and south as well as in west; the sources of the metals were widely distributed. PMID:27069713

  5. Three Cs in Measurement Models: Causal Indicators, Composite Indicators, and Covariates

    PubMed Central

    Bollen, Kenneth A.; Bauldry, Shawn

    2013-01-01

    In the last two decades attention to causal (and formative) indicators has grown. Accompanying this growth has been the belief that we can classify indicators into two categories, effect (reflective) indicators and causal (formative) indicators. This paper argues that the dichotomous view is too simple. Instead, there are effect indicators and three types of variables on which a latent variable depends: causal indicators, composite (formative) indicators, and covariates (the “three Cs”). Causal indicators have conceptual unity and their effects on latent variables are structural. Covariates are not concept measures, but are variables to control to avoid bias in estimating the relations between measures and latent variable(s). Composite (formative) indicators form exact linear combinations of variables that need not share a concept. Their coefficients are weights rather than structural effects and composites are a matter of convenience. The failure to distinguish the “three Cs” has led to confusion and questions such as: are causal and formative indicators different names for the same indicator type? Should an equation with causal or formative indicators have an error term? Are the coefficients of causal indicators less stable than effect indicators? Distinguishing between causal and composite indicators and covariates goes a long way toward eliminating this confusion. We emphasize the key role that subject matter expertise plays in making these distinctions. We provide new guidelines for working with these variable types, including identification of models, scaling latent variables, parameter estimation, and validity assessment. A running empirical example on self-perceived health illustrates our major points. PMID:21767021

  6. Main predictors of periphyton species richness depend on adherence strategy and cell size

    PubMed Central

    Siqueira, Tadeu; Landeiro, Victor Lemes; Rodrigues, Liliana; Bonecker, Claudia Costa; Rodrigues, Luzia Cleide; Santana, Natália Fernanda; Thomaz, Sidinei Magela; Bini, Luis Mauricio

    2017-01-01

    Periphytic algae are important components of aquatic ecosystems. However, the factors driving periphyton species richness variation remain largely unexplored. Here, we used data from a subtropical floodplain (Upper Paraná River floodplain, Brazil) to quantify the influence of environmental variables (total suspended matter, temperature, conductivity, nutrient concentrations, hydrology, phytoplankton biomass, phytoplankton species richness, aquatic macrophyte species richness and zooplankton density) on overall periphytic algal species richness and on the richness of different algal groups defined by morphological traits (cell size and adherence strategy). We expected that the coefficients of determination of the models estimated for different trait-based groups would be higher than the model coefficient of determination of the entire algal community. We also expected that the relative importance of explanatory variables in predicting species richness would differ among algal groups. The coefficient of determination for the model used to predict overall periphytic algal species richness was higher than the ones obtained for models used to predict the species richness of the different groups. Thus, our first prediction was not supported. Species richness of aquatic macrophytes was the main predictor of periphyton species richness of the entire community and a significant predictor of the species richness of small mobile, large mobile and small-loosely attached algae. Abiotic variables, phytoplankton species richness, chlorophyll-a concentration, and hydrology were also significant predictors, depending on the group. These results suggest that habitat heterogeneity (as proxied by aquatic macrophytes richness) is important for maintaining periphyton species richness in floodplain environments. However, other factors played a role, suggesting that the analysis of species richness of different trait-based groups unveils relationships that were not detectable when the entire community was analysed together. PMID:28742122

  7. Not accounting for interindividual variability can mask habitat selection patterns: a case study on black bears.

    PubMed

    Lesmerises, Rémi; St-Laurent, Martin-Hugues

    2017-11-01

    Habitat selection studies conducted at the population scale commonly aim to describe general patterns that could improve our understanding of the limiting factors in species-habitat relationships. Researchers often consider interindividual variation in selection patterns to control for its effects and avoid pseudoreplication by using mixed-effect models that include individuals as random factors. Here, we highlight common pitfalls and possible misinterpretations of this strategy by describing habitat selection of 21 black bears Ursus americanus. We used Bayesian mixed-effect models and compared results obtained when using random intercept (i.e., population level) versus calculating individual coefficients for each independent variable (i.e., individual level). We then related interindividual variability to individual characteristics (i.e., age, sex, reproductive status, body condition) in a multivariate analysis. The assumption of comparable behavior among individuals was verified only in 40% of the cases in our seasonal best models. Indeed, we found strong and opposite responses among sampled bears and individual coefficients were linked to individual characteristics. For some covariates, contrasted responses canceled each other out at the population level. In other cases, interindividual variability was concealed by the composition of our sample, with the majority of the bears (e.g., old individuals and bears in good physical condition) driving the population response (e.g., selection of young forest cuts). Our results stress the need to consider interindividual variability to avoid misinterpretation and uninformative results, especially for a flexible and opportunistic species. This study helps to identify some ecological drivers of interindividual variability in bear habitat selection patterns.

  8. Beyond Intelligence Testing.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    White, Stephen; And Others

    1988-01-01

    Articles on IQ testing are presented: "Opportunity and Intelligence" (Stephen White); "Beyond the IQ: Education and Human Development" (Howard Gardner); "Beyond IQ Testing" (Robert J. Sternberg); "Working Smarter" (Roger J. Peters); "Varieties of Mind" (John L. Doris, Stephen J. Ceci); "Human…

  9. 50 CFR Appendix D to Part 404 - Boundary Coordinates for Papaha

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ..., 2008 edition; 19019, 2008 edition; 19022, 2008 edition. These charts are based on World Geodetic System...′.87 Table D-4—Inner Boundary Around Gardner Pinnacles, French Frigate Shoals, and Necker Island Point...

  10. 50 CFR Appendix D to Part 404 - Boundary Coordinates for Papaha

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ..., 2008 edition; 19019, 2008 edition; 19022, 2008 edition. These charts are based on World Geodetic System...′.87 Table D-4—Inner Boundary Around Gardner Pinnacles, French Frigate Shoals, and Necker Island Point...

  11. 50 CFR Appendix D to Part 404 - Boundary Coordinates for Papaha

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ..., 2008 edition; 19019, 2008 edition; 19022, 2008 edition. These charts are based on World Geodetic System...′.87 Table D-4—Inner Boundary Around Gardner Pinnacles, French Frigate Shoals, and Necker Island Point...

  12. 50 CFR Appendix D to Part 404 - Boundary Coordinates for Papaha

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ..., 2008 edition; 19019, 2008 edition; 19022, 2008 edition. These charts are based on World Geodetic System...′.87 Table D-4—Inner Boundary Around Gardner Pinnacles, French Frigate Shoals, and Necker Island Point...

  13. Estimating Prediction Uncertainty from Geographical Information System Raster Processing: A User's Manual for the Raster Error Propagation Tool (REPTool)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gurdak, Jason J.; Qi, Sharon L.; Geisler, Michael L.

    2009-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey Raster Error Propagation Tool (REPTool) is a custom tool for use with the Environmental System Research Institute (ESRI) ArcGIS Desktop application to estimate error propagation and prediction uncertainty in raster processing operations and geospatial modeling. REPTool is designed to introduce concepts of error and uncertainty in geospatial data and modeling and provide users of ArcGIS Desktop a geoprocessing tool and methodology to consider how error affects geospatial model output. Similar to other geoprocessing tools available in ArcGIS Desktop, REPTool can be run from a dialog window, from the ArcMap command line, or from a Python script. REPTool consists of public-domain, Python-based packages that implement Latin Hypercube Sampling within a probabilistic framework to track error propagation in geospatial models and quantitatively estimate the uncertainty of the model output. Users may specify error for each input raster or model coefficient represented in the geospatial model. The error for the input rasters may be specified as either spatially invariant or spatially variable across the spatial domain. Users may specify model output as a distribution of uncertainty for each raster cell. REPTool uses the Relative Variance Contribution method to quantify the relative error contribution from the two primary components in the geospatial model - errors in the model input data and coefficients of the model variables. REPTool is appropriate for many types of geospatial processing operations, modeling applications, and related research questions, including applications that consider spatially invariant or spatially variable error in geospatial data.

  14. Torsional, Vibrational and Vibration-Torsional Levels in the S_{1} and Ground Cationic D_{0}^{+} States of Para-Xylene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gardner, Adrian M.; Tuttle, William Duncan; Groner, Peter; Wright, Timothy G.

    2017-06-01

    Insight gained from examining the "pure" torsional, vibrational and vibration-torsional (vibtor) levels of the single rotor molecules: toluene (methylbenzene) and para-fluorotoluene (pFT), is applied to the double rotor para-xylene (p-dimethylbenzene) molecule . Resonance-enhanced multiphoton ionization (REMPI) spectroscopy and zero-kinetic-energy (ZEKE) spectroscopy are employed in order to investigate the S_{1} and ground cationic states of para-xylene. Observed transitions are assigned in the full molecular symmetry group (G_{72}) for the first time. J. R. Gascooke, E. A. Virgo, and W. D. Lawrance, J. Chem. Phys., 143, 044313 (2015). A. M. Gardner, W. D. Tuttle, L. Whalley, A. Claydon, J. H. Carter and T. G. Wright, J. Chem. Phys., 145, 124307 (2016). A. M. Gardner, W. D. Tuttle, P. Groner and T. G. Wright, J. Chem. Phys., (2017, in press).

  15. STS-4 landing at Edwards Air Foce Base, California

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1982-01-01

    STS-4 landing at Edwards Air Foce Base, California. Actor Roy Rogers with Astronauts Jerry L. Ross, left, and Guy S. Gardner at Edwards for the STS-4 landing on July 1, 1982. Also present (behind Gardner at extreme right) was former Astronaut Edwin E. Aldrin, Jr. (33226); President Ronald Reagan and First Lady Nancy Reagan meet Astronauts Thomas K. Mattingly, II., right, and Henry W. Hartsfield, Jr., after the landing of the Columbia at Edwards (33227,33230); Space Shuttle Columbia, followed by two T-38 chase planes, touches down on Edwards Air Force Base's Runway 22 to complete mission. In this view, one chase plane appears to be directly above and behind the Columbia, whose nose wheels have not yet touched ground. The other plane appears to be further up front (33228); The rear wheels of the Columbia touch down on the Edwards AFB runway. There are no chase planes in sight in this photo (33229).

  16. A diffusivity model for predicting VOC diffusion in porous building materials based on fractal theory.

    PubMed

    Liu, Yanfeng; Zhou, Xiaojun; Wang, Dengjia; Song, Cong; Liu, Jiaping

    2015-12-15

    Most building materials are porous media, and the internal diffusion coefficients of such materials have an important influences on the emission characteristics of volatile organic compounds (VOCs). The pore structure of porous building materials has a significant impact on the diffusion coefficient. However, the complex structural characteristics bring great difficulties to the model development. The existing prediction models of the diffusion coefficient are flawed and need to be improved. Using scanning electron microscope (SEM) observations and mercury intrusion porosimetry (MIP) tests of typical porous building materials, this study developed a new diffusivity model: the multistage series-connection fractal capillary-bundle (MSFC) model. The model considers the variable-diameter capillaries formed by macropores connected in series as the main mass transfer paths, and the diameter distribution of the capillary bundles obeys a fractal power law in the cross section. In addition, the tortuosity of the macrocapillary segments with different diameters is obtained by the fractal theory. Mesopores serve as the connections between the macrocapillary segments rather than as the main mass transfer paths. The theoretical results obtained using the MSFC model yielded a highly accurate prediction of the diffusion coefficients and were in a good agreement with the VOC concentration measurements in the environmental test chamber. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Short-term to seasonal variability in factors driving primary productivity in a shallow estuary: Implications for modeling production

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Canion, Andy; MacIntyre, Hugh L.; Phipps, Scott

    2013-10-01

    The inputs of primary productivity models may be highly variable on short timescales (hourly to daily) in turbid estuaries, but modeling of productivity in these environments is often implemented with data collected over longer timescales. Daily, seasonal, and spatial variability in primary productivity model parameters: chlorophyll a concentration (Chla), the downwelling light attenuation coefficient (kd), and photosynthesis-irradiance response parameters (Pmchl, αChl) were characterized in Weeks Bay, a nitrogen-impacted shallow estuary in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Variability in primary productivity model parameters in response to environmental forcing, nutrients, and microalgal taxonomic marker pigments were analysed in monthly and short-term datasets. Microalgal biomass (as Chla) was strongly related to total phosphorus concentration on seasonal scales. Hourly data support wind-driven resuspension as a major source of short-term variability in Chla and light attenuation (kd). The empirical relationship between areal primary productivity and a combined variable of biomass and light attenuation showed that variability in the photosynthesis-irradiance response contributed little to the overall variability in primary productivity, and Chla alone could account for 53-86% of the variability in primary productivity. Efforts to model productivity in similar shallow systems with highly variable microalgal biomass may benefit the most by investing resources in improving spatial and temporal resolution of chlorophyll a measurements before increasing the complexity of models used in productivity modeling.

  18. A Mixed Model for Real-Time, Interactive Simulation of a Cable Passing Through Several Pulleys

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    García-Fernández, Ignacio; Pla-Castells, Marta; Martínez-Durá, Rafael J.

    2007-09-01

    A model of a cable and pulleys is presented that can be used in Real Time Computer Graphics applications. The model is formulated by the coupling of a damped spring and a variable coefficient wave equation, and can be integrated in more complex mechanical models of lift systems, such as cranes, elevators, etc. with a high degree of interactivity.

  19. Predicting fire spread in Arizona's oak chaparral

    Treesearch

    A. W. Lindenmuth; James R. Davis

    1973-01-01

    Five existing fire models, both experimental and theoretical, did not adequately predict rate-of-spread (ROS) when tested on single- and multiclump fires in oak chaparral in Arizona. A statistical model developed using essentially the same input variables but weighted differently accounted for 81 percent ofthe variation in ROS. A chemical coefficient that accounts for...

  20. Generalized semiparametric varying-coefficient models for longitudinal data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qi, Li

    In this dissertation, we investigate the generalized semiparametric varying-coefficient models for longitudinal data that can flexibly model three types of covariate effects: time-constant effects, time-varying effects, and covariate-varying effects, i.e., the covariate effects that depend on other possibly time-dependent exposure variables. First, we consider the model that assumes the time-varying effects are unspecified functions of time while the covariate-varying effects are parametric functions of an exposure variable specified up to a finite number of unknown parameters. The estimation procedures are developed using multivariate local linear smoothing and generalized weighted least squares estimation techniques. The asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators are established. The simulation studies show that the proposed methods have satisfactory finite sample performance. ACTG 244 clinical trial of HIV infected patients are applied to examine the effects of antiretroviral treatment switching before and after HIV developing the 215-mutation. Our analysis shows benefit of treatment switching before developing the 215-mutation. The proposed methods are also applied to the STEP study with MITT cases showing that they have broad applications in medical research.

  1. Relationship between soybean yield/quality and soil quality in a major soybean-producing area based on a 2D-QSAR model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gao, Ming; Li, Shiwei

    2017-05-01

    Based on experimental data of the soybean yield and quality from 30 sampling points, a quantitative structure-activity relationship model (2D-QSAR) was established using the soil quality (elements, pH, organic matter content and cation exchange capacity) as independent variables and soybean yield or quality as the dependent variable, with SPSS software. During the modeling, the full data set (30 and 14 compounds) was divided into a training set (24 and 11 compounds) for model generation and a test set (6 and 3 compounds) for model validation. The R2 values of the resulting models and data were 0.826 and 0.808 for soybean yield and quality, respectively, and all regression coefficients were significant (P < 0.05). The correlation coefficient R2pred of observed values and predicted values of the soybean yield and soybean quality in the test set were 0.961 and 0.956, respectively, indicating that the models had a good predictive ability. Moreover, the Mo, Se, K, N and organic matter contents and the cation exchange capacity of soil had a positive effect on soybean production, and the B, Mo, Se, K and N contents and cation exchange coefficient had a positive effect on soybean quality. The results are instructive for enhancing soils to improve the yield and quality of soybean, and this method can also be used to study other crops or regions, providing a theoretical basis to improving the yield and quality of crops.

  2. LiDAR based prediction of forest biomass using hierarchical models with spatially varying coefficients

    Treesearch

    Chad Babcock; Andrew O. Finley; John B. Bradford; Randy Kolka; Richard Birdsey; Michael G. Ryan

    2015-01-01

    Many studies and production inventory systems have shown the utility of coupling covariates derived from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data with forest variables measured on georeferenced inventory plots through regression models. The objective of this study was to propose and assess the use of a Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework that accommodates both...

  3. The impact of nudging coefficient for the initialization on the atmospheric flow field and the photochemical ozone concentration of Seoul, Korea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Choi, Hyun-Jung; Lee, Hwa Woon; Sung, Kyoung-Hee; Kim, Min-Jung; Kim, Yoo-Keun; Jung, Woo-Sik

    In order to incorporate correctly the large or local scale circulation in the model, a nudging term is introduced into the equation of motion. Nudging effects should be included properly in the model to reduce the uncertainties and improve the air flow field. To improve the meteorological components, the nudging coefficient should perform the adequate influence on complex area for the model initialization technique which related to data reliability and error suppression. Several numerical experiments have been undertaken in order to evaluate the effects on air quality modeling by comparing the performance of the meteorological result with variable nudging coefficient experiment. All experiments are calculated by the upper wind conditions (synoptic or asynoptic condition), respectively. Consequently, it is important to examine the model response to nudging effect of wind and mass information. The MM5-CMAQ model was used to assess the ozone differences in each case, during the episode day in Seoul, Korea and we revealed that there were large differences in the ozone concentration for each run. These results suggest that for the appropriate simulation of large or small-scale circulations, nudging considering the synoptic and asynoptic nudging coefficient does have a clear advantage over dynamic initialization, so appropriate limitation of these nudging coefficient values on its upper wind conditions is necessary before making an assessment. The statistical verifications showed that adequate nudging coefficient for both wind and temperature data throughout the model had a consistently positive impact on the atmospheric and air quality field. On the case dominated by large-scale circulation, a large nudging coefficient shows a minor improvement in the atmospheric and air quality field. However, when small-scale convection is present, the large nudging coefficient produces consistent improvement in the atmospheric and air quality field.

  4. Determination and importance of temperature dependence of retention coefficient (RPHPLC) in QSAR model of nitrazepams' partition coefficient in bile acid micelles.

    PubMed

    Posa, Mihalj; Pilipović, Ana; Lalić, Mladena; Popović, Jovan

    2011-02-15

    Linear dependence between temperature (t) and retention coefficient (k, reversed phase HPLC) of bile acids is obtained. Parameters (a, intercept and b, slope) of the linear function k=f(t) highly correlate with bile acids' structures. Investigated bile acids form linear congeneric groups on a principal component (calculated from k=f(t)) score plot that are in accordance with conformations of the hydroxyl and oxo groups in a bile acid steroid skeleton. Partition coefficient (K(p)) of nitrazepam in bile acids' micelles is investigated. Nitrazepam molecules incorporated in micelles show modified bioavailability (depo effect, higher permeability, etc.). Using multiple linear regression method QSAR models of nitrazepams' partition coefficient, K(p) are derived on the temperatures of 25°C and 37°C. For deriving linear regression models on both temperatures experimentally obtained lipophilicity parameters are included (PC1 from data k=f(t)) and in silico descriptors of the shape of a molecule while on the higher temperature molecular polarisation is introduced. This indicates the fact that the incorporation mechanism of nitrazepam in BA micelles changes on the higher temperatures. QSAR models are derived using partial least squares method as well. Experimental parameters k=f(t) are shown to be significant predictive variables. Both QSAR models are validated using cross validation and internal validation method. PLS models have slightly higher predictive capability than MLR models. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Low dimensional model of heart rhythm dynamics as a tool for diagnosing the anaerobic threshold

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anosov, O. L.; Butkovskii, O. Ya.; Kadtke, J.; Kravtsov, Yu. A.; Protopopescu, V.

    1997-05-01

    We report preliminary results on describing the dependence of the heart rhythm variability on the stress level by using qualitative, low dimensional models. The reconstruction of macroscopic heart models yielding cardio cycles (RR-intervals) duration was based on actual clinical data. Our results show that the coefficients of the low dimensional models are sensitive to metabolic changes. In particular, at the transition between aerobic and aerobic-anaerobic metabolism, there are pronounced extrema in the functional dependence of the coefficients on the stress level. This strong sensitivity can be used to design an easy indirect method for determining the anaerobic threshold. This method could replace costly and invasive traditional methods such as gas analysis and blood tests.

  6. Vibration and Vibration-Torsion Levels of the S_{1} and Ground Cationic D_{0}^{+} States of Para-Fluorotoluene and Para-Xylene Below 1000 \\wn

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tuttle, William Duncan; Gardner, Adrian M.; Whalley, Laura E.; Wright, Timothy G.

    2017-06-01

    We have employed resonance-enhanced multiphoton ionisation (REMPI) spectroscopy and zero-kinetic-energy (ZEKE) spectroscopy to investigate the first excited electronic singlet (S_{1}) state and the cationic ground state (D_{0}^{+}) of para-fluorotoluene (pFT) and para-xylene (pXyl). Spectra have been recorded via a large number of selected intermediate levels, to support assignment of the vibration and vibration-torsion levels in these molecules and to investigate possible couplings. The study of levels in this region builds upon previous work on the lower energy regions of pFT and pXyl and here we are interested in how vibration-torsion (vibtor) levels might combine and interact with vibrational ones, and so we consider the possible couplings which occur. Comparisons between the spectra of the two molecules show a close correspondence, and the influence of the second methyl rotor in para-xylene on the onset of intramolecular vibrational redistribution (IVR) in the S_{1} state is a point of interest. This has bearing on future work which will need to consider the role of both more flexible side chains of substituted benzene molecules, and multiple side chains. A. M. Gardner, W. D. Tuttle, L. Whalley, A. Claydon, J. H. Carter and T. G. Wright, J. Chem. Phys., 145, 124307 (2016). A. M. Gardner, W. D. Tuttle, P. Groner and T. G. Wright, J. Chem. Phys., (2017, in press). W. D. Tuttle, A. M. Gardner, K. O'Regan, W. Malewicz and T. G. Wright, J. Chem. Phys., (2017, in press).

  7. Multibeam mapping of the West Florida Shelf, Gulf of Mexico

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gardner, James V.; Dartnell, Peter; Sulak, Kenneth J.

    2002-01-01

    A zone of deep-water reefs is thought to extend from the mid and outer shelf south of Mississippi and Alabama to at least the northwestern Florida shelf off Panama City, Florida (Figure 1). The reefs off Mississippi and Alabama are found in water depths of 60 to 120 m (Ludwick and Walton, 1957; Gardner et al., 2001, in press) and were the focus of a multibeam echosounder (MBES) mapping survey by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in 2000 (Gardner et al., 2000, Gardner et al., 2001, in press). If this deep-water-reef trend does exist along the northwestern Florida shelf, then it is critical to determine the accurate geomorphology and reef type that occur because of their importance as benthic habitats for fisheries. Georeferenced high-resolution mapping of bathymetry is a fundamental first step in the study of areas suspected to be critical habitats. Morphology is thought to be critical to defining the distribution of dominant demersal plankton/planktivores communities. Fish faunas of shallow hermatypic reefs have been well studied, but those of deep ahermatypic reefs have been relatively ignored. The ecology of deep-water ahermatypic reefs is fundamentally different from hermatypic reefs because autochthonous intracellular symbiotic zooxanthellae (the carbon source for hermatypic corals) do not form the base of the trophic web in ahermatypic reefs. Instead, exogenous plankton, transported to the reef by currents, serves as the primary carbon source. Thus, one of the principle uses of the morphology data will be to identify whether any reefs found are hermatypic or ahermatypic in origin.

  8. Impact of spatial variability and sampling design on model performance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schrape, Charlotte; Schneider, Anne-Kathrin; Schröder, Boris; van Schaik, Loes

    2017-04-01

    Many environmental physical and chemical parameters as well as species distributions display a spatial variability at different scales. In case measurements are very costly in labour time or money a choice has to be made between a high sampling resolution at small scales and a low spatial cover of the study area or a lower sampling resolution at the small scales resulting in local data uncertainties with a better spatial cover of the whole area. This dilemma is often faced in the design of field sampling campaigns for large scale studies. When the gathered field data are subsequently used for modelling purposes the choice of sampling design and resulting data quality influence the model performance criteria. We studied this influence with a virtual model study based on a large dataset of field information on spatial variation of earthworms at different scales. Therefore we built a virtual map of anecic earthworm distributions over the Weiherbach catchment (Baden-Württemberg in Germany). First of all the field scale abundance of earthworms was estimated using a catchment scale model based on 65 field measurements. Subsequently the high small scale variability was added using semi-variograms, based on five fields with a total of 430 measurements divided in a spatially nested sampling design over these fields, to estimate the nugget, range and standard deviation of measurements within the fields. With the produced maps, we performed virtual samplings of one up to 50 random points per field. We then used these data to rebuild the catchment scale models of anecic earthworm abundance with the same model parameters as in the work by Palm et al. (2013). The results of the models show clearly that a large part of the non-explained deviance of the models is due to the very high small scale variability in earthworm abundance: the models based on single virtual sampling points on average obtain an explained deviance of 0.20 and a correlation coefficient of 0.64. With increasing sampling points per field, we averaged the measured abundance of the sampling within each field to obtain a more representative value of the field average. Doubling the samplings per field strongly improved the model performance criteria (explained deviance 0.38 and correlation coefficient 0.73). With 50 sampling points per field the performance criteria were 0.91 and 0.97 respectively for explained deviance and correlation coefficient. The relationship between number of samplings and performance criteria can be described with a saturation curve. Beyond five samples per field the model improvement becomes rather small. With this contribution we wish to discuss the impact of data variability at sampling scale on model performance and the implications for sampling design and assessment of model results as well as ecological inferences.

  9. The artificial-free technique along the objective direction for the simplex algorithm

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boonperm, Aua-aree; Sinapiromsaran, Krung

    2014-03-01

    The simplex algorithm is a popular algorithm for solving linear programming problems. If the origin point satisfies all constraints then the simplex can be started. Otherwise, artificial variables will be introduced to start the simplex algorithm. If we can start the simplex algorithm without using artificial variables then the simplex iterate will require less time. In this paper, we present the artificial-free technique for the simplex algorithm by mapping the problem into the objective plane and splitting constraints into three groups. In the objective plane, one of variables which has a nonzero coefficient of the objective function is fixed in terms of another variable. Then it can split constraints into three groups: the positive coefficient group, the negative coefficient group and the zero coefficient group. Along the objective direction, some constraints from the positive coefficient group will form the optimal solution. If the positive coefficient group is nonempty, the algorithm starts with relaxing constraints from the negative coefficient group and the zero coefficient group. We guarantee the feasible region obtained from the positive coefficient group to be nonempty. The transformed problem is solved using the simplex algorithm. Additional constraints from the negative coefficient group and the zero coefficient group will be added to the solved problem and use the dual simplex method to determine the new optimal solution. An example shows the effectiveness of our algorithm.

  10. Innovating patient care delivery: DSRIP's interrupted time series analysis paradigm.

    PubMed

    Shenoy, Amrita G; Begley, Charles E; Revere, Lee; Linder, Stephen H; Daiger, Stephen P

    2017-12-08

    Adoption of Medicaid Section 1115 waiver is one of the many ways of innovating healthcare delivery system. The Delivery System Reform Incentive Payment (DSRIP) pool, one of the two funding pools of the waiver has four categories viz. infrastructure development, program innovation and redesign, quality improvement reporting and lastly, bringing about population health improvement. A metric of the fourth category, preventable hospitalization (PH) rate was analyzed in the context of eight conditions for two time periods, pre-reporting years (2010-2012) and post-reporting years (2013-2015) for two hospital cohorts, DSRIP participating and non-participating hospitals. The study explains how DSRIP impacted Preventable Hospitalization (PH) rates of eight conditions for both hospital cohorts within two time periods. Eight PH rates were regressed as the dependent variable with time, intervention and post-DSRIP Intervention as independent variables. PH rates of eight conditions were then consolidated into one rate for regressing with the above independent variables to evaluate overall impact of DSRIP. An interrupted time series regression was performed after accounting for auto-correlation, stationarity and seasonality in the dataset. In the individual regression model, PH rates showed statistically significant coefficients for seven out of eight conditions in DSRIP participating hospitals. In the combined regression model, the coefficient of the PH rate showed a statistically significant decrease with negative p-values for regression coefficients in DSRIP participating hospitals compared to positive/increased p-values for regression coefficients in DSRIP non-participating hospitals. Several macro- and micro-level factors may have likely contributed DSRIP hospitals outperforming DSRIP non-participating hospitals. Healthcare organization/provider collaboration, support from healthcare professionals, DSRIP's design, state reimbursement and coordination in care delivery methods may have led to likely success of DSRIP. IV, a retrospective cohort study based on longitudinal data. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. FADTTS: functional analysis of diffusion tensor tract statistics.

    PubMed

    Zhu, Hongtu; Kong, Linglong; Li, Runze; Styner, Martin; Gerig, Guido; Lin, Weili; Gilmore, John H

    2011-06-01

    The aim of this paper is to present a functional analysis of a diffusion tensor tract statistics (FADTTS) pipeline for delineating the association between multiple diffusion properties along major white matter fiber bundles with a set of covariates of interest, such as age, diagnostic status and gender, and the structure of the variability of these white matter tract properties in various diffusion tensor imaging studies. The FADTTS integrates five statistical tools: (i) a multivariate varying coefficient model for allowing the varying coefficient functions in terms of arc length to characterize the varying associations between fiber bundle diffusion properties and a set of covariates, (ii) a weighted least squares estimation of the varying coefficient functions, (iii) a functional principal component analysis to delineate the structure of the variability in fiber bundle diffusion properties, (iv) a global test statistic to test hypotheses of interest, and (v) a simultaneous confidence band to quantify the uncertainty in the estimated coefficient functions. Simulated data are used to evaluate the finite sample performance of FADTTS. We apply FADTTS to investigate the development of white matter diffusivities along the splenium of the corpus callosum tract and the right internal capsule tract in a clinical study of neurodevelopment. FADTTS can be used to facilitate the understanding of normal brain development, the neural bases of neuropsychiatric disorders, and the joint effects of environmental and genetic factors on white matter fiber bundles. The advantages of FADTTS compared with the other existing approaches are that they are capable of modeling the structured inter-subject variability, testing the joint effects, and constructing their simultaneous confidence bands. However, FADTTS is not crucial for estimation and reduces to the functional analysis method for the single measure. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Cyclotron Resonance of Electrons Trapped in a Microwave Cavity

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Elmore, W. C.

    1975-01-01

    Describes an experiment in which the free-electron cyclotron resonance of electrons trapped in a microwave cavity by a Penning trap is observed. The experiment constitutes an attractive alternative to one of the Gardner-Purcell variety. (Author/GS)

  13. Multilevel Dynamic Generalized Structured Component Analysis for Brain Connectivity Analysis in Functional Neuroimaging Data.

    PubMed

    Jung, Kwanghee; Takane, Yoshio; Hwang, Heungsun; Woodward, Todd S

    2016-06-01

    We extend dynamic generalized structured component analysis (GSCA) to enhance its data-analytic capability in structural equation modeling of multi-subject time series data. Time series data of multiple subjects are typically hierarchically structured, where time points are nested within subjects who are in turn nested within a group. The proposed approach, named multilevel dynamic GSCA, accommodates the nested structure in time series data. Explicitly taking the nested structure into account, the proposed method allows investigating subject-wise variability of the loadings and path coefficients by looking at the variance estimates of the corresponding random effects, as well as fixed loadings between observed and latent variables and fixed path coefficients between latent variables. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach by applying the method to the multi-subject functional neuroimaging data for brain connectivity analysis, where time series data-level measurements are nested within subjects.

  14. Determination of oral mucosal Poisson's ratio and coefficient of friction from in-vivo contact pressure measurements.

    PubMed

    Chen, Junning; Suenaga, Hanako; Hogg, Michael; Li, Wei; Swain, Michael; Li, Qing

    2016-01-01

    Despite their considerable importance to biomechanics, there are no existing methods available to directly measure apparent Poisson's ratio and friction coefficient of oral mucosa. This study aimed to develop an inverse procedure to determine these two biomechanical parameters by utilizing in vivo experiment of contact pressure between partial denture and beneath mucosa through nonlinear finite element (FE) analysis and surrogate response surface (RS) modelling technique. First, the in vivo denture-mucosa contact pressure was measured by a tactile electronic sensing sheet. Second, a 3D FE model was constructed based on the patient CT images. Third, a range of apparent Poisson's ratios and the coefficients of friction from literature was considered as the design variables in a series of FE runs for constructing a RS surrogate model. Finally, the discrepancy between computed in silico and measured in vivo results was minimized to identify the best matching Poisson's ratio and coefficient of friction. The established non-invasive methodology was demonstrated effective to identify such biomechanical parameters of oral mucosa and can be potentially used for determining the biomaterial properties of other soft biological tissues.

  15. Ion Storage Ring Measurements of Low Temperature Dielectronic Recombination Rate Coefficients for Modeling X-Ray Photoionized Cosmic Plasmas

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Savin, D. W.; Gwinner, G.; Schwalm, D.; Wolf, A.; Mueller, A.; Schippers, S.

    2002-01-01

    Low temperature dielectronic recombination (DR) is the dominant recombination mechanism for most ions in X-ray photoionized cosmic plasmas. Reliably modeling and interpreting spectra from these plasmas requires accurate low temperature DR rate Coefficients. Of particular importance are the DR rate coefficients for the iron L-shell ions (Fe XVII-Fe XXIV). These ions are predicted to play an important role in determining the thermal structure and line emission of X-ray photoionized plasmas, which form in the media surrounding accretion powered sources such as X-ray binaries (XRBs), active galactic nuclei (AGN), and cataclysmic variables (Savin et al., 2000). The need for reliable DR data of iron L-shell ions has become particularly urgent after the launches of Chandra and XMM-Newton. These satellites are now providing high-resolution X-ray spectra from a wide range of X-ray photoionized sources. Interpreting the spectra from these sources requires reliable DR rate coefficients. However, at the temperatures relevant, for X-ray photoionized plasmas, existing theoretical DR rate coefficients can differ from one another by factors of two to orders of magnitudes.

  16. Blood pressure variability in man: its relation to high blood pressure, age and baroreflex sensitivity.

    PubMed

    Mancia, G; Ferrari, A; Gregorini, L; Parati, G; Pomidossi, G; Bertinieri, G; Grassi, G; Zanchetti, A

    1980-12-01

    1. Intra-arterial blood pressure and heart rate were recorded for 24 h in ambulant hospitalized patients of variable age who had normal blood pressure or essential hypertension. Mean 24 h values, standard deviations and variation coefficient were obtained as the averages of values separately analysed for 48 consecutive half-hour periods. 2. In older subjects standard deviation and variation coefficient for mean arterial pressure were greater than in younger subjects with similar pressure values, whereas standard deviation and variation coefficient for mean arterial pressure were greater than in younger subjects with similar pressure values, whereas standard deviation aations and variation coefficient were obtained as the averages of values separately analysed for 48 consecurive half-hour periods. 2. In older subjects standard deviation and variation coefficient for mean arterial pressure were greater than in younger subjects with similar pressure values, whereas standard deviation and variation coefficient for heart rate were smaller. 3. In hypertensive subjects standard deviation for mean arterial pressure was greater than in normotensive subjects of similar ages, but this was not the case for variation coefficient, which was slightly smaller in the former than in the latter group. Normotensive and hypertensive subjects showed no difference in standard deviation and variation coefficient for heart rate. 4. In both normotensive and hypertensive subjects standard deviation and even more so variation coefficient were slightly or not related to arterial baroreflex sensitivity as measured by various methods (phenylephrine, neck suction etc.). 5. It is concluded that blood pressure variability increases and heart rate variability decreases with age, but that changes in variability are not so obvious in hypertension. Also, differences in variability among subjects are only marginally explained by differences in baroreflex function.

  17. Reduced basis technique for evaluating the sensitivity coefficients of the nonlinear tire response

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Noor, Ahmed K.; Tanner, John A.; Peters, Jeanne M.

    1992-01-01

    An efficient reduced-basis technique is proposed for calculating the sensitivity of nonlinear tire response to variations in the design variables. The tire is modeled using a 2-D, moderate rotation, laminated anisotropic shell theory, including the effects of variation in material and geometric parameters. The vector of structural response and its first-order and second-order sensitivity coefficients are each expressed as a linear combination of a small number of basis vectors. The effectiveness of the basis vectors used in approximating the sensitivity coefficients is demonstrated by a numerical example involving the Space Shuttle nose-gear tire, which is subjected to uniform inflation pressure.

  18. Hidden Connections between Regression Models of Strain-Gage Balance Calibration Data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ulbrich, Norbert

    2013-01-01

    Hidden connections between regression models of wind tunnel strain-gage balance calibration data are investigated. These connections become visible whenever balance calibration data is supplied in its design format and both the Iterative and Non-Iterative Method are used to process the data. First, it is shown how the regression coefficients of the fitted balance loads of a force balance can be approximated by using the corresponding regression coefficients of the fitted strain-gage outputs. Then, data from the manual calibration of the Ames MK40 six-component force balance is chosen to illustrate how estimates of the regression coefficients of the fitted balance loads can be obtained from the regression coefficients of the fitted strain-gage outputs. The study illustrates that load predictions obtained by applying the Iterative or the Non-Iterative Method originate from two related regression solutions of the balance calibration data as long as balance loads are given in the design format of the balance, gage outputs behave highly linear, strict statistical quality metrics are used to assess regression models of the data, and regression model term combinations of the fitted loads and gage outputs can be obtained by a simple variable exchange.

  19. A Nonlinear Model for Gene-Based Gene-Environment Interaction.

    PubMed

    Sa, Jian; Liu, Xu; He, Tao; Liu, Guifen; Cui, Yuehua

    2016-06-04

    A vast amount of literature has confirmed the role of gene-environment (G×E) interaction in the etiology of complex human diseases. Traditional methods are predominantly focused on the analysis of interaction between a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) and an environmental variable. Given that genes are the functional units, it is crucial to understand how gene effects (rather than single SNP effects) are influenced by an environmental variable to affect disease risk. Motivated by the increasing awareness of the power of gene-based association analysis over single variant based approach, in this work, we proposed a sparse principle component regression (sPCR) model to understand the gene-based G×E interaction effect on complex disease. We first extracted the sparse principal components for SNPs in a gene, then the effect of each principal component was modeled by a varying-coefficient (VC) model. The model can jointly model variants in a gene in which their effects are nonlinearly influenced by an environmental variable. In addition, the varying-coefficient sPCR (VC-sPCR) model has nice interpretation property since the sparsity on the principal component loadings can tell the relative importance of the corresponding SNPs in each component. We applied our method to a human birth weight dataset in Thai population. We analyzed 12,005 genes across 22 chromosomes and found one significant interaction effect using the Bonferroni correction method and one suggestive interaction. The model performance was further evaluated through simulation studies. Our model provides a system approach to evaluate gene-based G×E interaction.

  20. Analytical equation for outflow along the flow in a perforated fluid distribution pipe

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Huanfang; Lv, Hongxing; Jin, Jin

    2017-01-01

    Perforated fluid distribution pipes have been widely used in agriculture, water supply and drainage, ventilation, the chemical industry, and other sectors. The momentum equation for variable mass flow with a variable exchange coefficient and variable friction coefficient was developed by using the momentum conservation method under the condition of a certain slope. The change laws of the variable momentum exchange coefficient and the variable resistance coefficient along the flow were analyzed, and the function of the momentum exchange coefficient was given. According to the velocity distribution of the power function, the momentum equation of variable mass flow was solved for different Reynolds numbers. The analytical solution contains components of pressure, gravity, friction and momentum and reflects the influence of various factors on the pressure distribution along the perforated pipe. The calculated results of the analytical solution were compared with the experimental values of the study by Jin et al. 1984 and Wang et al. 2001 with the mean errors 8.2%, 3.8% and 2.7%, and showed that the analytical solution of the variable mass momentum equation was qualitatively and quantitatively consistent with the experimental results. PMID:29065112

  1. Inverse modeling of BTEX dissolution and biodegradation at the Bemidji, MN crude-oil spill site

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Essaid, H.I.; Cozzarelli, I.M.; Eganhouse, R.P.; Herkelrath, W.N.; Bekins, B.A.; Delin, G.N.

    2003-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) solute transport and biodegradation code BIOMOC was used in conjunction with the USGS universal inverse modeling code UCODE to quantify field-scale hydrocarbon dissolution and biodegradation at the USGS Toxic Substances Hydrology Program crude-oil spill research site located near Bemidji, MN. This inverse modeling effort used the extensive historical data compiled at the Bemidji site from 1986 to 1997 and incorporated a multicomponent transport and biodegradation model. Inverse modeling was successful when coupled transport and degradation processes were incorporated into the model and a single dissolution rate coefficient was used for all BTEX components. Assuming a stationary oil body, we simulated benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, m,p-xylene, and o-xylene (BTEX) concentrations in the oil and ground water, respectively, as well as dissolved oxygen. Dissolution from the oil phase and aerobic and anaerobic degradation processes were represented. The parameters estimated were the recharge rate, hydraulic conductivity, dissolution rate coefficient, individual first-order BTEX anaerobic degradation rates, and transverse dispersivity. Results were similar for simulations obtained using several alternative conceptual models of the hydrologic system and biodegradation processes. The dissolved BTEX concentration data were not sufficient to discriminate between these conceptual models. The calibrated simulations reproduced the general large-scale evolution of the plume, but did not reproduce the observed small-scale spatial and temporal variability in concentrations. The estimated anaerobic biodegradation rates for toluene and o-xylene were greater than the dissolution rate coefficient. However, the estimated anaerobic biodegradation rates for benzene, ethylbenzene, and m,p-xylene were less than the dissolution rate coefficient. The calibrated model was used to determine the BTEX mass balance in the oil body and groundwater plume. Dissolution from the oil body was greatest for compounds with large effective solubilities (benzene) and with large degradation rates (toluene and o-xylene). Anaerobic degradation removed 77% of the BTEX that dissolved into the water phase and aerobic degradation removed 17%. Although goodness-of-fit measures for the alternative conceptual models were not significantly different, predictions made with the models were quite variable. ?? 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Second order sliding mode control for a quadrotor UAV.

    PubMed

    Zheng, En-Hui; Xiong, Jing-Jing; Luo, Ji-Liang

    2014-07-01

    A method based on second order sliding mode control (2-SMC) is proposed to design controllers for a small quadrotor UAV. For the switching sliding manifold design, the selection of the coefficients of the switching sliding manifold is in general a sophisticated issue because the coefficients are nonlinear. In this work, in order to perform the position and attitude tracking control of the quadrotor perfectly, the dynamical model of the quadrotor is divided into two subsystems, i.e., a fully actuated subsystem and an underactuated subsystem. For the former, a sliding manifold is defined by combining the position and velocity tracking errors of one state variable, i.e., the sliding manifold has two coefficients. For the latter, a sliding manifold is constructed via a linear combination of position and velocity tracking errors of two state variables, i.e., the sliding manifold has four coefficients. In order to further obtain the nonlinear coefficients of the sliding manifold, Hurwitz stability analysis is used to the solving process. In addition, the flight controllers are derived by using Lyapunov theory, which guarantees that all system state trajectories reach and stay on the sliding surfaces. Extensive simulation results are given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed control method. Copyright © 2014 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Adjusted variable plots for Cox's proportional hazards regression model.

    PubMed

    Hall, C B; Zeger, S L; Bandeen-Roche, K J

    1996-01-01

    Adjusted variable plots are useful in linear regression for outlier detection and for qualitative evaluation of the fit of a model. In this paper, we extend adjusted variable plots to Cox's proportional hazards model for possibly censored survival data. We propose three different plots: a risk level adjusted variable (RLAV) plot in which each observation in each risk set appears, a subject level adjusted variable (SLAV) plot in which each subject is represented by one point, and an event level adjusted variable (ELAV) plot in which the entire risk set at each failure event is represented by a single point. The latter two plots are derived from the RLAV by combining multiple points. In each point, the regression coefficient and standard error from a Cox proportional hazards regression is obtained by a simple linear regression through the origin fit to the coordinates of the pictured points. The plots are illustrated with a reanalysis of a dataset of 65 patients with multiple myeloma.

  4. Parameter optimization of the QUAL2K model for a multiple-reach river using an influence coefficient algorithm.

    PubMed

    Cho, Jae Heon; Ha, Sung Ryong

    2010-03-15

    An influence coefficient algorithm and a genetic algorithm (GA) were introduced to develop an automatic calibration model for QUAL2K, the latest version of the QUAL2E river and stream water-quality model. The influence coefficient algorithm was used for the parameter optimization in unsteady state, open channel flow. The GA, used in solving the optimization problem, is very simple and comprehensible yet still applicable to any complicated mathematical problem, where it can find the global-optimum solution quickly and effectively. The previously established model QUAL2Kw was used for the automatic calibration of the QUAL2K. The parameter-optimization method using the influence coefficient and genetic algorithm (POMIG) developed in this study and QUAL2Kw were each applied to the Gangneung Namdaecheon River, which has multiple reaches, and the results of the two models were compared. In the modeling, the river reach was divided into two parts based on considerations of the water quality and hydraulic characteristics. The calibration results by POMIG showed a good correspondence between the calculated and observed values for most of water-quality variables. In the application of POMIG and QUAL2Kw, relatively large errors were generated between the observed and predicted values in the case of the dissolved oxygen (DO) and chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) in the lowest part of the river; therefore, two weighting factors (1 and 5) were applied for DO and Chl-a in the lower river. The sums of the errors for DO and Chl-a with a weighting factor of 5 were slightly lower compared with the application of a factor of 1. However, with a weighting factor of 5 the sums of errors for other water-quality variables were slightly increased in comparison to the case with a factor of 1. Generally, the results of the POMIG were slightly better than those of the QUAL2Kw.

  5. Remote-sensing data processing with the multivariate regression analysis method for iron mineral resource potential mapping: a case study in the Sarvian area, central Iran

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mansouri, Edris; Feizi, Faranak; Jafari Rad, Alireza; Arian, Mehran

    2018-03-01

    This paper uses multivariate regression to create a mathematical model for iron skarn exploration in the Sarvian area, central Iran, using multivariate regression for mineral prospectivity mapping (MPM). The main target of this paper is to apply multivariate regression analysis (as an MPM method) to map iron outcrops in the northeastern part of the study area in order to discover new iron deposits in other parts of the study area. Two types of multivariate regression models using two linear equations were employed to discover new mineral deposits. This method is one of the reliable methods for processing satellite images. ASTER satellite images (14 bands) were used as unique independent variables (UIVs), and iron outcrops were mapped as dependent variables for MPM. According to the results of the probability value (p value), coefficient of determination value (R2) and adjusted determination coefficient (Radj2), the second regression model (which consistent of multiple UIVs) fitted better than other models. The accuracy of the model was confirmed by iron outcrops map and geological observation. Based on field observation, iron mineralization occurs at the contact of limestone and intrusive rocks (skarn type).

  6. The consequences of ignoring measurement invariance for path coefficients in structural equation models

    PubMed Central

    Guenole, Nigel; Brown, Anna

    2014-01-01

    We report a Monte Carlo study examining the effects of two strategies for handling measurement non-invariance – modeling and ignoring non-invariant items – on structural regression coefficients between latent variables measured with item response theory models for categorical indicators. These strategies were examined across four levels and three types of non-invariance – non-invariant loadings, non-invariant thresholds, and combined non-invariance on loadings and thresholds – in simple, partial, mediated and moderated regression models where the non-invariant latent variable occupied predictor, mediator, and criterion positions in the structural regression models. When non-invariance is ignored in the latent predictor, the focal group regression parameters are biased in the opposite direction to the difference in loadings and thresholds relative to the referent group (i.e., lower loadings and thresholds for the focal group lead to overestimated regression parameters). With criterion non-invariance, the focal group regression parameters are biased in the same direction as the difference in loadings and thresholds relative to the referent group. While unacceptable levels of parameter bias were confined to the focal group, bias occurred at considerably lower levels of ignored non-invariance than was previously recognized in referent and focal groups. PMID:25278911

  7. Applying an economical scale-aware PDF-based turbulence closure model in NOAA NCEP GCMs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Belochitski, A.; Krueger, S. K.; Moorthi, S.; Bogenschutz, P.; Pincus, R.

    2016-12-01

    A novel unified representation of sub-grid scale (SGS) turbulence, cloudiness, and shallow convection is being implemented into the NOAA NCEP Global Forecasting System (GFS) general circulation model. The approach, known as Simplified High Order Closure (SHOC), is based on predicting a joint PDF of SGS thermodynamic variables and vertical velocity and using it to diagnose turbulent diffusion coefficients, SGS fluxes, condensation and cloudiness. Unlike other similar methods, only one new prognostic variable, turbulent kinetic energy (TKE), needs to be intoduced, making the technique computationally efficient.SHOC is now incorporated into a version of GFS, as well as into the next generation of the NCEP global model - NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS). Turbulent diffusion coefficients computed by SHOC are now used in place of those produced by the boundary layer turbulence and shallow convection parameterizations. Large scale microphysics scheme is no longer used to calculate cloud fraction or the large-scale condensation/deposition. Instead, SHOC provides these variables. Radiative transfer parameterization uses cloudiness computed by SHOC.Outstanding problems include high level tropical cloud fraction being too high in SHOC runs, possibly related to the interaction of SHOC with condensate detrained from deep convection.Future work will consist of evaluating model performance and tuning the physics if necessary, by performing medium-range NWP forecasts with prescribed initial conditions, and AMIP-type climate tests with prescribed SSTs. Depending on the results, the model will be tuned or parameterizations modified. Next, SHOC will be implemented in the NCEP CFS, and tuned and evaluated for climate applications - seasonal prediction and long coupled climate runs. Impact of new physics on ENSO, MJO, ISO, monsoon variability, etc will be examined.

  8. Selected Proceedings from the Texas Foreign Language Education Conference 2001.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Luke, Christopher, Ed.

    2001-01-01

    This collection of papers includes: "Language Learning Motivation: The Student, the Teacher, and the Researcher" (Robert C. Gardner); "The Self-Reported Perspectives Regarding Academic Writing among Taiwanese Graduate Students Specializing in TEFL" (Robert Johanson); "Contradictions, Appropriation, and Transformation: An…

  9. Solution of elliptic partial differential equations by fast Poisson solvers using a local relaxation factor. 2: Two-step method

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chang, S. C.

    1986-01-01

    A two-step semidirect procedure is developed to accelerate the one-step procedure described in NASA TP-2529. For a set of constant coefficient model problems, the acceleration factor increases from 1 to 2 as the one-step procedure convergence rate decreases from + infinity to 0. It is also shown numerically that the two-step procedure can substantially accelerate the convergence of the numerical solution of many partial differential equations (PDE's) with variable coefficients.

  10. Seasonal variations of Manning's coefficient depending on vegetation conditions in Tärnsjö, Sweden

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Plakane, Rūta; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Okoli, Kenechukwu

    2017-04-01

    Hydrological modelling and water resources management require observations of high and low river flows. To estimate them, rating curves based on the characteristics of the river channel and floodplain are often used. Yet, multiple factors can cause uncertainties in rating curves, one of them being the variability of the Manning's roughness coefficient due to seasonal changes of vegetation. Determining this uncertainty has been a challenge, and depending on vegetation conditions on a stream, values can temporarily show an important deviation from the calibrated rating curve, enhancing the importance to understand changes in Manning's roughness coefficient. Examining the aquatic vegetation on the site throughout different seasonal conditions allows one to observe changes within the channel. By depending on cyclical changes in Manning's roughness coefficient values, different discharges may correspond to the same stage conditions. In this context, we present a combination of field work and modelling exercise to the variation of the rating curve due to vegetation changes in a Swedish stream.

  11. Quality by design: optimization of a freeze-drying cycle via design space in case of heterogeneous drying behavior and influence of the freezing protocol.

    PubMed

    Pisano, Roberto; Fissore, Davide; Barresi, Antonello A; Brayard, Philippe; Chouvenc, Pierre; Woinet, Bertrand

    2013-02-01

    This paper shows how to optimize the primary drying phase, for both product quality and drying time, of a parenteral formulation via design space. A non-steady state model, parameterized with experimentally determined heat and mass transfer coefficients, is used to define the design space when the heat transfer coefficient varies with the position of the vial in the array. The calculations recognize both equipment and product constraints, and also take into account model parameter uncertainty. Examples are given of cycles designed for the same formulation, but varying the freezing conditions and the freeze-dryer scale. These are then compared in terms of drying time. Furthermore, the impact of inter-vial variability on design space, and therefore on the optimized cycle, is addressed. With this regard, a simplified method is presented for the cycle design, which reduces the experimental effort required for the system qualification. The use of mathematical modeling is demonstrated to be very effective not only for cycle development, but also for solving problem of process transfer. This study showed that inter-vial variability remains significant when vials are loaded on plastic trays, and how inter-vial variability can be taken into account during process design.

  12. Uncertainty propagation through an aeroelastic wind turbine model using polynomial surrogates

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Murcia, Juan Pablo; Réthoré, Pierre-Elouan; Dimitrov, Nikolay

    Polynomial surrogates are used to characterize the energy production and lifetime equivalent fatigue loads for different components of the DTU 10 MW reference wind turbine under realistic atmospheric conditions. The variability caused by different turbulent inflow fields are captured by creating independent surrogates for the mean and standard deviation of each output with respect to the inflow realizations. A global sensitivity analysis shows that the turbulent inflow realization has a bigger impact on the total distribution of equivalent fatigue loads than the shear coefficient or yaw miss-alignment. The methodology presented extends the deterministic power and thrust coefficient curves to uncertaintymore » models and adds new variables like damage equivalent fatigue loads in different components of the turbine. These surrogate models can then be implemented inside other work-flows such as: estimation of the uncertainty in annual energy production due to wind resource variability and/or robust wind power plant layout optimization. It can be concluded that it is possible to capture the global behavior of a modern wind turbine and its uncertainty under realistic inflow conditions using polynomial response surfaces. In conclusion, the surrogates are a way to obtain power and load estimation under site specific characteristics without sharing the proprietary aeroelastic design.« less

  13. Uncertainty propagation through an aeroelastic wind turbine model using polynomial surrogates

    DOE PAGES

    Murcia, Juan Pablo; Réthoré, Pierre-Elouan; Dimitrov, Nikolay; ...

    2017-07-17

    Polynomial surrogates are used to characterize the energy production and lifetime equivalent fatigue loads for different components of the DTU 10 MW reference wind turbine under realistic atmospheric conditions. The variability caused by different turbulent inflow fields are captured by creating independent surrogates for the mean and standard deviation of each output with respect to the inflow realizations. A global sensitivity analysis shows that the turbulent inflow realization has a bigger impact on the total distribution of equivalent fatigue loads than the shear coefficient or yaw miss-alignment. The methodology presented extends the deterministic power and thrust coefficient curves to uncertaintymore » models and adds new variables like damage equivalent fatigue loads in different components of the turbine. These surrogate models can then be implemented inside other work-flows such as: estimation of the uncertainty in annual energy production due to wind resource variability and/or robust wind power plant layout optimization. It can be concluded that it is possible to capture the global behavior of a modern wind turbine and its uncertainty under realistic inflow conditions using polynomial response surfaces. In conclusion, the surrogates are a way to obtain power and load estimation under site specific characteristics without sharing the proprietary aeroelastic design.« less

  14. Development of an Uncertainty Model for the National Transonic Facility

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Walter, Joel A.; Lawrence, William R.; Elder, David W.; Treece, Michael D.

    2010-01-01

    This paper introduces an uncertainty model being developed for the National Transonic Facility (NTF). The model uses a Monte Carlo technique to propagate standard uncertainties of measured values through the NTF data reduction equations to calculate the combined uncertainties of the key aerodynamic force and moment coefficients and freestream properties. The uncertainty propagation approach to assessing data variability is compared with ongoing data quality assessment activities at the NTF, notably check standard testing using statistical process control (SPC) techniques. It is shown that the two approaches are complementary and both are necessary tools for data quality assessment and improvement activities. The SPC approach is the final arbiter of variability in a facility. Its result encompasses variation due to people, processes, test equipment, and test article. The uncertainty propagation approach is limited mainly to the data reduction process. However, it is useful because it helps to assess the causes of variability seen in the data and consequently provides a basis for improvement. For example, it is shown that Mach number random uncertainty is dominated by static pressure variation over most of the dynamic pressure range tested. However, the random uncertainty in the drag coefficient is generally dominated by axial and normal force uncertainty with much less contribution from freestream conditions.

  15. Measurement of non-sugar solids content in Chinese rice wine using near infrared spectroscopy combined with an efficient characteristic variables selection algorithm.

    PubMed

    Ouyang, Qin; Zhao, Jiewen; Chen, Quansheng

    2015-01-01

    The non-sugar solids (NSS) content is one of the most important nutrition indicators of Chinese rice wine. This study proposed a rapid method for the measurement of NSS content in Chinese rice wine using near infrared (NIR) spectroscopy. We also systemically studied the efficient spectral variables selection algorithms that have to go through modeling. A new algorithm of synergy interval partial least square with competitive adaptive reweighted sampling (Si-CARS-PLS) was proposed for modeling. The performance of the final model was back-evaluated using root mean square error of calibration (RMSEC) and correlation coefficient (Rc) in calibration set and similarly tested by mean square error of prediction (RMSEP) and correlation coefficient (Rp) in prediction set. The optimum model by Si-CARS-PLS algorithm was achieved when 7 PLS factors and 18 variables were included, and the results were as follows: Rc=0.95 and RMSEC=1.12 in the calibration set, Rp=0.95 and RMSEP=1.22 in the prediction set. In addition, Si-CARS-PLS algorithm showed its superiority when compared with the commonly used algorithms in multivariate calibration. This work demonstrated that NIR spectroscopy technique combined with a suitable multivariate calibration algorithm has a high potential in rapid measurement of NSS content in Chinese rice wine. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Identification of sensitive parameters in the modeling of SVOC reemission processes from soil to atmosphere.

    PubMed

    Loizeau, Vincent; Ciffroy, Philippe; Roustan, Yelva; Musson-Genon, Luc

    2014-09-15

    Semi-volatile organic compounds (SVOCs) are subject to Long-Range Atmospheric Transport because of transport-deposition-reemission successive processes. Several experimental data available in the literature suggest that soil is a non-negligible contributor of SVOCs to atmosphere. Then coupling soil and atmosphere in integrated coupled models and simulating reemission processes can be essential for estimating atmospheric concentration of several pollutants. However, the sources of uncertainty and variability are multiple (soil properties, meteorological conditions, chemical-specific parameters) and can significantly influence the determination of reemissions. In order to identify the key parameters in reemission modeling and their effect on global modeling uncertainty, we conducted a sensitivity analysis targeted on the 'reemission' output variable. Different parameters were tested, including soil properties, partition coefficients and meteorological conditions. We performed EFAST sensitivity analysis for four chemicals (benzo-a-pyrene, hexachlorobenzene, PCB-28 and lindane) and different spatial scenari (regional and continental scales). Partition coefficients between air, solid and water phases are influent, depending on the precision of data and global behavior of the chemical. Reemissions showed a lower variability to soil parameters (soil organic matter and water contents at field capacity and wilting point). A mapping of these parameters at a regional scale is sufficient to correctly estimate reemissions when compared to other sources of uncertainty. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Covariate selection with group lasso and doubly robust estimation of causal effects

    PubMed Central

    Koch, Brandon; Vock, David M.; Wolfson, Julian

    2017-01-01

    Summary The efficiency of doubly robust estimators of the average causal effect (ACE) of a treatment can be improved by including in the treatment and outcome models only those covariates which are related to both treatment and outcome (i.e., confounders) or related only to the outcome. However, it is often challenging to identify such covariates among the large number that may be measured in a given study. In this paper, we propose GLiDeR (Group Lasso and Doubly Robust Estimation), a novel variable selection technique for identifying confounders and predictors of outcome using an adaptive group lasso approach that simultaneously performs coefficient selection, regularization, and estimation across the treatment and outcome models. The selected variables and corresponding coefficient estimates are used in a standard doubly robust ACE estimator. We provide asymptotic results showing that, for a broad class of data generating mechanisms, GLiDeR yields a consistent estimator of the ACE when either the outcome or treatment model is correctly specified. A comprehensive simulation study shows that GLiDeR is more efficient than doubly robust methods using standard variable selection techniques and has substantial computational advantages over a recently proposed doubly robust Bayesian model averaging method. We illustrate our method by estimating the causal treatment effect of bilateral versus single-lung transplant on forced expiratory volume in one year after transplant using an observational registry. PMID:28636276

  18. Covariate selection with group lasso and doubly robust estimation of causal effects.

    PubMed

    Koch, Brandon; Vock, David M; Wolfson, Julian

    2018-03-01

    The efficiency of doubly robust estimators of the average causal effect (ACE) of a treatment can be improved by including in the treatment and outcome models only those covariates which are related to both treatment and outcome (i.e., confounders) or related only to the outcome. However, it is often challenging to identify such covariates among the large number that may be measured in a given study. In this article, we propose GLiDeR (Group Lasso and Doubly Robust Estimation), a novel variable selection technique for identifying confounders and predictors of outcome using an adaptive group lasso approach that simultaneously performs coefficient selection, regularization, and estimation across the treatment and outcome models. The selected variables and corresponding coefficient estimates are used in a standard doubly robust ACE estimator. We provide asymptotic results showing that, for a broad class of data generating mechanisms, GLiDeR yields a consistent estimator of the ACE when either the outcome or treatment model is correctly specified. A comprehensive simulation study shows that GLiDeR is more efficient than doubly robust methods using standard variable selection techniques and has substantial computational advantages over a recently proposed doubly robust Bayesian model averaging method. We illustrate our method by estimating the causal treatment effect of bilateral versus single-lung transplant on forced expiratory volume in one year after transplant using an observational registry. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

  19. Improvement of Storm Forecasts Using Gridded Bayesian Linear Regression for Northeast United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, J.; Astitha, M.; Schwartz, C. S.

    2017-12-01

    Bayesian linear regression (BLR) is a post-processing technique in which regression coefficients are derived and used to correct raw forecasts based on pairs of observation-model values. This study presents the development and application of a gridded Bayesian linear regression (GBLR) as a new post-processing technique to improve numerical weather prediction (NWP) of rain and wind storm forecasts over northeast United States. Ten controlled variables produced from ten ensemble members of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) real-time prediction system are used for a GBLR model. In the GBLR framework, leave-one-storm-out cross-validation is utilized to study the performances of the post-processing technique in a database composed of 92 storms. To estimate the regression coefficients of the GBLR, optimization procedures that minimize the systematic and random error of predicted atmospheric variables (wind speed, precipitation, etc.) are implemented for the modeled-observed pairs of training storms. The regression coefficients calculated for meteorological stations of the National Weather Service are interpolated back to the model domain. An analysis of forecast improvements based on error reductions during the storms will demonstrate the value of GBLR approach. This presentation will also illustrate how the variances are optimized for the training partition in GBLR and discuss the verification strategy for grid points where no observations are available. The new post-processing technique is successful in improving wind speed and precipitation storm forecasts using past event-based data and has the potential to be implemented in real-time.

  20. Temporal Stability of Soil Moisture and Radar Backscatter Observed by the Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar (ASAR)

    PubMed Central

    Wagner, Wolfgang; Pathe, Carsten; Doubkova, Marcela; Sabel, Daniel; Bartsch, Annett; Hasenauer, Stefan; Blöschl, Günter; Scipal, Klaus; Martínez-Fernández, José; Löw, Alexander

    2008-01-01

    The high spatio-temporal variability of soil moisture is the result of atmospheric forcing and redistribution processes related to terrain, soil, and vegetation characteristics. Despite this high variability, many field studies have shown that in the temporal domain soil moisture measured at specific locations is correlated to the mean soil moisture content over an area. Since the measurements taken by Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) instruments are very sensitive to soil moisture it is hypothesized that the temporally stable soil moisture patterns are reflected in the radar backscatter measurements. To verify this hypothesis 73 Wide Swath (WS) images have been acquired by the ENVISAT Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar (ASAR) over the REMEDHUS soil moisture network located in the Duero basin, Spain. It is found that a time-invariant linear relationship is well suited for relating local scale (pixel) and regional scale (50 km) backscatter. The observed linear model coefficients can be estimated by considering the scattering properties of the terrain and vegetation and the soil moisture scaling properties. For both linear model coefficients, the relative error between observed and modelled values is less than 5 % and the coefficient of determination (R2) is 86 %. The results are of relevance for interpreting and downscaling coarse resolution soil moisture data retrieved from active (METOP ASCAT) and passive (SMOS, AMSR-E) instruments. PMID:27879759

  1. Mapping health outcome measures from a stroke registry to EQ-5D weights.

    PubMed

    Ghatnekar, Ola; Eriksson, Marie; Glader, Eva-Lotta

    2013-03-07

    To map health outcome related variables from a national register, not part of any validated instrument, with EQ-5D weights among stroke patients. We used two cross-sectional data sets including patient characteristics, outcome variables and EQ-5D weights from the national Swedish stroke register. Three regression techniques were used on the estimation set (n=272): ordinary least squares (OLS), Tobit, and censored least absolute deviation (CLAD). The regression coefficients for "dressing", "toileting", "mobility", "mood", "general health" and "proxy-responders" were applied to the validation set (n=272), and the performance was analysed with mean absolute error (MAE) and mean square error (MSE). The number of statistically significant coefficients varied by model, but all models generated consistent coefficients in terms of sign. Mean utility was underestimated in all models (least in OLS) and with lower variation (least in OLS) compared to the observed. The maximum attainable EQ-5D weight ranged from 0.90 (OLS) to 1.00 (Tobit and CLAD). Health states with utility weights <0.5 had greater errors than those with weights ≥ 0.5 (P<0.01). This study indicates that it is possible to map non-validated health outcome measures from a stroke register into preference-based utilities to study the development of stroke care over time, and to compare with other conditions in terms of utility.

  2. Artificial Intelligence Techniques for Predicting and Mapping Daily Pan Evaporation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arunkumar, R.; Jothiprakash, V.; Sharma, Kirty

    2017-09-01

    In this study, Artificial Intelligence techniques such as Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Model Tree (MT) and Genetic Programming (GP) are used to develop daily pan evaporation time-series (TS) prediction and cause-effect (CE) mapping models. Ten years of observed daily meteorological data such as maximum temperature, minimum temperature, relative humidity, sunshine hours, dew point temperature and pan evaporation are used for developing the models. For each technique, several models are developed by changing the number of inputs and other model parameters. The performance of each model is evaluated using standard statistical measures such as Mean Square Error, Mean Absolute Error, Normalized Mean Square Error and correlation coefficient (R). The results showed that daily TS-GP (4) model predicted better with a correlation coefficient of 0.959 than other TS models. Among various CE models, CE-ANN (6-10-1) resulted better than MT and GP models with a correlation coefficient of 0.881. Because of the complex non-linear inter-relationship among various meteorological variables, CE mapping models could not achieve the performance of TS models. From this study, it was found that GP performs better for recognizing single pattern (time series modelling), whereas ANN is better for modelling multiple patterns (cause-effect modelling) in the data.

  3. "L"-Bivariate and "L"-Multivariate Association Coefficients. Research Report. ETS RR-08-40

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kong, Nan; Lewis, Charles

    2008-01-01

    Given a system of multiple random variables, a new measure called the "L"-multivariate association coefficient is defined using (conditional) entropy. Unlike traditional correlation measures, the L-multivariate association coefficient measures the multiassociations or multirelations among the multiple variables in the given system; that…

  4. Low dimensional model of heart rhythm dynamics as a tool for diagnosing the anaerobic threshold

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Anosov, O.L.; Butkovskii, O.Y.; Kadtke, J.

    We report preliminary results on describing the dependence of the heart rhythm variability on the stress level by using qualitative, low dimensional models. The reconstruction of macroscopic heart models yielding cardio cycles (RR-intervals) duration was based on actual clinical data. Our results show that the coefficients of the low dimensional models are sensitive to metabolic changes. In particular, at the transition between aerobic and aerobic-anaerobic metabolism, there are pronounced extrema in the functional dependence of the coefficients on the stress level. This strong sensitivity can be used to design an easy indirect method for determining the anaerobic threshold. This methodmore » could replace costly and invasive traditional methods such as gas analysis and blood tests. {copyright} {ital 1997 American Institute of Physics.}« less

  5. Study on the PGNAA measurement of heavy metals in aqueous solution by the Monte Carlo-Library Least-Squares (MCLLS) approach.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Yan; Jia, WenBao; Gardner, Robin; Shan, Qing; Hei, Daqian

    2018-02-01

    In the present work, a prompt gamma neutron activation analysis (PGNAA) setup, which consists of a 300mCi 241 Americium-Beryllium (Am-Be) neutron source and a 4 × 4-in. Bismuth germanium oxide (BGO) detector, was developed for heavy metal detection in aqueous solutions. A series of standard samples with analytical purity were prepared by dissolving heavy metals in deionized water. Quantitative spectrum analysis was performed by the Monte Carlo-Least-Squares (MCLLS) approach to measure the standard samples. The detector response functions of 4 × 4-in. BGO detector were generated by using the CEARDRF code. The element libraries were simulated in silico by the CEARCPG code, which was developed by Dr. Gardner. The simulation results presented were in very good agreement with the experimental results. The correlation coefficients were very close to 1 when the fitted spectrum was compared with the experimental spectrum. By applying the MCLLS approach, the relative deviation of the measurement accuracy was less than 2.27% for Ni, Mn, and Cu and up to 69.33% for Pb. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Simple, Efficient Estimators of Treatment Effects in Randomized Trials Using Generalized Linear Models to Leverage Baseline Variables

    PubMed Central

    Rosenblum, Michael; van der Laan, Mark J.

    2010-01-01

    Models, such as logistic regression and Poisson regression models, are often used to estimate treatment effects in randomized trials. These models leverage information in variables collected before randomization, in order to obtain more precise estimates of treatment effects. However, there is the danger that model misspecification will lead to bias. We show that certain easy to compute, model-based estimators are asymptotically unbiased even when the working model used is arbitrarily misspecified. Furthermore, these estimators are locally efficient. As a special case of our main result, we consider a simple Poisson working model containing only main terms; in this case, we prove the maximum likelihood estimate of the coefficient corresponding to the treatment variable is an asymptotically unbiased estimator of the marginal log rate ratio, even when the working model is arbitrarily misspecified. This is the log-linear analog of ANCOVA for linear models. Our results demonstrate one application of targeted maximum likelihood estimation. PMID:20628636

  7. Audiences for the Theory of Multiple Intelligences

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gardner, Howard

    2004-01-01

    In his closing comments, Howard Gardner discusses the various audiences that have emerged over the years for the theory of multiple intelligences. Under that rubric, he places the various papers in this issue and speculates about future lines of work on MI theory.

  8. Multiple Intelligences for Differentiated Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Williams, R. Bruce

    2007-01-01

    There is an intricate literacy to Gardner's multiple intelligences theory that unlocks key entry points for differentiated learning. Using a well-articulated framework, rich with graphic representations, Williams provides a comprehensive discussion of multiple intelligences. He moves the teacher and students from curiosity, to confidence, to…

  9. Convergence: Human Intelligence The Next 100 Years

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fluellen, Jerry E., Jr.

    2005-01-01

    How might human intelligence evolve over the next 100 years? This issue paper explores that idea. First, the paper summarizes five emerging perspectives about human intelligence: Howard Gardner's multiple intelligences theory, Robert Sternberg's triarchic theory of intelligence, Ellen Langer's mindfulness theory, David Perkins' learnable…

  10. Haemodynamically Unstable Pelvic Fractures

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2009-01-01

    through the pubic symphysis, and posteriorlywith the sacrum forming the sacroiliac (SI) joints (Fig. 1). The SI joints are the strongest in the body...Gardner MJ, Kendoff D, Ostermeier S, et al. Sacroiliac joint compression using an anterior pelvic compressor: a mechanical study in synthetic bone. J

  11. Just Do It.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Black, Susan

    1995-01-01

    Kids may be learning a great deal in physical education class. The new emphasis on physical education (through sports, dance, and physical exercise) is partly due to Howard Gardner's multiple intelligences research underscoring the importance of bodily/kinesthetic perception. Research shows that promoting the mind-body connection increases…

  12. From Hexaflexagons to Edge Flexagons to Point Flexagons

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pook, Les

    2012-01-01

    Flexagons, introduced to a wide audience 50 years ago by Martin Gardner, now have an extensive literature and are an active field of research. This paper describes two kinds: edge flexagons and point flexagons, and gives an example of one means of classification.

  13. An Evaluation of Alternative Screening Procedures.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Reid, Carol; Romanoff, Brenda; Algozzine, Bob; Udall, Ann

    2000-01-01

    This study compared the Problem Solving Assessment (PSA) procedure, an application based on Gardner's theory of multiple intelligences, with more traditional criteria for the identification of minority students for gifted education programs. Although positive correlations among approaches and intelligences were observed, different groups of…

  14. Comparison of Grid Nudging and Spectral Nudging Techniques for Dynamical Climate Downscaling within the WRF Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fan, X.; Chen, L.; Ma, Z.

    2010-12-01

    Climate downscaling has been an active research and application area in the past several decades focusing on regional climate studies. Dynamical downscaling, in addition to statistical methods, has been widely used in downscaling as the advanced modern numerical weather and regional climate models emerge. The utilization of numerical models enables that a full set of climate variables are generated in the process of downscaling, which are dynamically consistent due to the constraints of physical laws. While we are generating high resolution regional climate, the large scale climate patterns should be retained. To serve this purpose, nudging techniques, including grid analysis nudging and spectral nudging, have been used in different models. There are studies demonstrating the benefit and advantages of each nudging technique; however, the results are sensitive to many factors such as nudging coefficients and the amount of information to nudge to, and thus the conclusions are controversy. While in a companion work of developing approaches for quantitative assessment of the downscaled climate, in this study, the two nudging techniques are under extensive experiments in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Using the same model provides fair comparability. Applying the quantitative assessments provides objectiveness of comparison. Three types of downscaling experiments were performed for one month of choice. The first type is serving as a base whereas the large scale information is communicated through lateral boundary conditions only; the second is using the grid analysis nudging; and the third is using spectral nudging. Emphases are given to the experiments of different nudging coefficients and nudging to different variables in the grid analysis nudging; while in spectral nudging, we focus on testing the nudging coefficients, different wave numbers on different model levels to nudge.

  15. New insight into pesticide partition coefficient Kd for modelling pesticide fluvial transport: application to an agricultural catchment in south-western France.

    PubMed

    Boithias, Laurie; Sauvage, Sabine; Merlina, Georges; Jean, Séverine; Probst, Jean-Luc; Sánchez Pérez, José Miguel

    2014-03-01

    Pesticides applied on crops are leached with rainfall to groundwater and surface water. They threat the aquatic environment and may render water unfit for human consumption. Pesticide partitioning is one of the pesticide fate processes in the environment that should be properly formalised in pesticide fate models. Based on the analysis of 7 pesticide molecules (alachlor, atrazine, atrazine's transformation product deethylatrazine or DEA, isoproturon, tebuconazole and trifluralin) sampled from July 2009 to October 2010 at the outlet of the river Save (south-western France), the objectives of this study were (1) to check which of the environmental factors (discharge, pH, concentrations of total suspended matter (TSM), dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and particulate organic carbon (POC) could control the pesticide sorption dynamic, and (2) to establish a relationship between environmental factors, the partition coefficient Kd and the octanol/water distribution coefficient Kow. The comparison of physico-chemical parameters values during low flow and high flow shows that discharge, TSM and POC are the factors most likely controlling the pesticide sorption processes in the Save river network, especially for lower values of TSM (below 13mgL(-1)). We therefore express Kd depending on the widely literature-related variable Kow and on the commonly simulated variable TSM concentration. The equation can be implemented in any model describing the fluvial transport and fate of pesticides in both dissolved and sorbed phases, thus, Kd becomes a variable in time and space. The Kd calculation method can be applied to a wide range of catchments and organic contaminants. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. On a generalized Ablowitz-Kaup-Newell-Segur hierarchy in inhomogeneities of media: soliton solutions and wave propagation influenced from coefficient functions and scattering data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Sheng; Hong, Siyu

    2018-07-01

    In this paper, a generalized Ablowitz-Kaup-Newell-Segur (AKNS) hierarchy in inhomogeneities of media described by variable coefficients is investigated, which includes some important nonlinear evolution equations as special cases, for example, the celebrated Korteweg-de Vries equation modeling waves on shallow water surfaces. To be specific, the known AKNS spectral problem and its time evolution equation are first generalized by embedding a finite number of differentiable and time-dependent functions. Starting from the generalized AKNS spectral problem and its generalized time evolution equation, a generalized AKNS hierarchy with variable coefficients is then derived. Furthermore, based on a systematic analysis on the time dependence of related scattering data of the generalized AKNS spectral problem, exact solutions of the generalized AKNS hierarchy are formulated through the inverse scattering transform method. In the case of reflectionless potentials, the obtained exact solutions are reduced to n-soliton solutions. It is graphically shown that the dynamical evolutions of such soliton solutions are influenced by not only the time-dependent coefficients but also the related scattering data in the process of propagations.

  17. Prediction of chromatographic relative retention time of polychlorinated biphenyls from the molecular electronegativity distance vector.

    PubMed

    Liu, Shu-Shen; Liu, Yan; Yin, Da-Qian; Wang, Xiao-Dong; Wang, Lian-Sheng

    2006-02-01

    Using the molecular electronegativity distance vector (MEDV) descriptors derived directly from the molecular topological structures, the gas chromatographic relative retention times (RRTs) of 209 polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) on the SE-54 stationary phase were predicted. A five-variable regression equation with the correlation coefficient of 0.9964 and the root mean square errors of 0.0152 was developed. The descriptors included in the equation represent degree of chlorination (nCl), nonortho index (Ino), and interactions between three pairs of atom types, i.e., atom groups -C= and -C=, -C= and >C=, -C= and -Cl. It has been proved that the retention times of all 209 PCB congeners can be accurately predicted as long as there are more than 50 calibration compounds. In the same way, the MEDV descriptors are also used to develop the five- or six-variable models of RRTs of PCBs on other 18 stationary phases and the correlation coefficients in both modeling stage and LOO cross-validation step are not lower than 0.99 except two models.

  18. Multinomial logistic regression modelling of obesity and overweight among primary school students in a rural area of Negeri Sembilan

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Ghazali, Amirul Syafiq Mohd; Ali, Zalila; Noor, Norlida Mohd

    Multinomial logistic regression is widely used to model the outcomes of a polytomous response variable, a categorical dependent variable with more than two categories. The model assumes that the conditional mean of the dependent categorical variables is the logistic function of an affine combination of predictor variables. Its procedure gives a number of logistic regression models that make specific comparisons of the response categories. When there are q categories of the response variable, the model consists of q-1 logit equations which are fitted simultaneously. The model is validated by variable selection procedures, tests of regression coefficients, a significant test ofmore » the overall model, goodness-of-fit measures, and validation of predicted probabilities using odds ratio. This study used the multinomial logistic regression model to investigate obesity and overweight among primary school students in a rural area on the basis of their demographic profiles, lifestyles and on the diet and food intake. The results indicated that obesity and overweight of students are related to gender, religion, sleep duration, time spent on electronic games, breakfast intake in a week, with whom meals are taken, protein intake, and also, the interaction between breakfast intake in a week with sleep duration, and the interaction between gender and protein intake.« less

  19. Multinomial logistic regression modelling of obesity and overweight among primary school students in a rural area of Negeri Sembilan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ghazali, Amirul Syafiq Mohd; Ali, Zalila; Noor, Norlida Mohd; Baharum, Adam

    2015-10-01

    Multinomial logistic regression is widely used to model the outcomes of a polytomous response variable, a categorical dependent variable with more than two categories. The model assumes that the conditional mean of the dependent categorical variables is the logistic function of an affine combination of predictor variables. Its procedure gives a number of logistic regression models that make specific comparisons of the response categories. When there are q categories of the response variable, the model consists of q-1 logit equations which are fitted simultaneously. The model is validated by variable selection procedures, tests of regression coefficients, a significant test of the overall model, goodness-of-fit measures, and validation of predicted probabilities using odds ratio. This study used the multinomial logistic regression model to investigate obesity and overweight among primary school students in a rural area on the basis of their demographic profiles, lifestyles and on the diet and food intake. The results indicated that obesity and overweight of students are related to gender, religion, sleep duration, time spent on electronic games, breakfast intake in a week, with whom meals are taken, protein intake, and also, the interaction between breakfast intake in a week with sleep duration, and the interaction between gender and protein intake.

  20. Multicollinearity in hierarchical linear models.

    PubMed

    Yu, Han; Jiang, Shanhe; Land, Kenneth C

    2015-09-01

    This study investigates an ill-posed problem (multicollinearity) in Hierarchical Linear Models from both the data and the model perspectives. We propose an intuitive, effective approach to diagnosing the presence of multicollinearity and its remedies in this class of models. A simulation study demonstrates the impacts of multicollinearity on coefficient estimates, associated standard errors, and variance components at various levels of multicollinearity for finite sample sizes typical in social science studies. We further investigate the role multicollinearity plays at each level for estimation of coefficient parameters in terms of shrinkage. Based on these analyses, we recommend a top-down method for assessing multicollinearity in HLMs that first examines the contextual predictors (Level-2 in a two-level model) and then the individual predictors (Level-1) and uses the results for data collection, research problem redefinition, model re-specification, variable selection and estimation of a final model. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Uncertainty Quantification in Simulations of Epidemics Using Polynomial Chaos

    PubMed Central

    Santonja, F.; Chen-Charpentier, B.

    2012-01-01

    Mathematical models based on ordinary differential equations are a useful tool to study the processes involved in epidemiology. Many models consider that the parameters are deterministic variables. But in practice, the transmission parameters present large variability and it is not possible to determine them exactly, and it is necessary to introduce randomness. In this paper, we present an application of the polynomial chaos approach to epidemiological mathematical models based on ordinary differential equations with random coefficients. Taking into account the variability of the transmission parameters of the model, this approach allows us to obtain an auxiliary system of differential equations, which is then integrated numerically to obtain the first-and the second-order moments of the output stochastic processes. A sensitivity analysis based on the polynomial chaos approach is also performed to determine which parameters have the greatest influence on the results. As an example, we will apply the approach to an obesity epidemic model. PMID:22927889

  2. Optimal variable-grid finite-difference modeling for porous media

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Xinxin; Yin, Xingyao; Li, Haishan

    2014-12-01

    Numerical modeling of poroelastic waves by the finite-difference (FD) method is more expensive than that of acoustic or elastic waves. To improve the accuracy and computational efficiency of seismic modeling, variable-grid FD methods have been developed. In this paper, we derived optimal staggered-grid finite difference schemes with variable grid-spacing and time-step for seismic modeling in porous media. FD operators with small grid-spacing and time-step are adopted for low-velocity or small-scale geological bodies, while FD operators with big grid-spacing and time-step are adopted for high-velocity or large-scale regions. The dispersion relations of FD schemes were derived based on the plane wave theory, then the FD coefficients were obtained using the Taylor expansion. Dispersion analysis and modeling results demonstrated that the proposed method has higher accuracy with lower computational cost for poroelastic wave simulation in heterogeneous reservoirs.

  3. Aircraft model prototypes which have specified handling-quality time histories

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johnson, S. H.

    1976-01-01

    Several techniques for obtaining linear constant-coefficient airplane models from specified handling-quality time histories are discussed. One technique, the pseudodata method, solves the basic problem, yields specified eigenvalues, and accommodates state-variable transfer-function zero suppression. The method is fully illustrated for a fourth-order stability-axis small-motion model with three lateral handling-quality time histories specified. The FORTRAN program which obtains and verifies the model is included and fully documented.

  4. Panel regressions to estimate low-flow response to rainfall variability in ungaged basins

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bassiouni, Maoya; Vogel, Richard M.; Archfield, Stacey A.

    2016-01-01

    Multicollinearity and omitted-variable bias are major limitations to developing multiple linear regression models to estimate streamflow characteristics in ungaged areas and varying rainfall conditions. Panel regression is used to overcome limitations of traditional regression methods, and obtain reliable model coefficients, in particular to understand the elasticity of streamflow to rainfall. Using annual rainfall and selected basin characteristics at 86 gaged streams in the Hawaiian Islands, regional regression models for three stream classes were developed to estimate the annual low-flow duration discharges. Three panel-regression structures (random effects, fixed effects, and pooled) were compared to traditional regression methods, in which space is substituted for time. Results indicated that panel regression generally was able to reproduce the temporal behavior of streamflow and reduce the standard errors of model coefficients compared to traditional regression, even for models in which the unobserved heterogeneity between streams is significant and the variance inflation factor for rainfall is much greater than 10. This is because both spatial and temporal variability were better characterized in panel regression. In a case study, regional rainfall elasticities estimated from panel regressions were applied to ungaged basins on Maui, using available rainfall projections to estimate plausible changes in surface-water availability and usable stream habitat for native species. The presented panel-regression framework is shown to offer benefits over existing traditional hydrologic regression methods for developing robust regional relations to investigate streamflow response in a changing climate.

  5. Panel regressions to estimate low-flow response to rainfall variability in ungaged basins

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bassiouni, Maoya; Vogel, Richard M.; Archfield, Stacey A.

    2016-12-01

    Multicollinearity and omitted-variable bias are major limitations to developing multiple linear regression models to estimate streamflow characteristics in ungaged areas and varying rainfall conditions. Panel regression is used to overcome limitations of traditional regression methods, and obtain reliable model coefficients, in particular to understand the elasticity of streamflow to rainfall. Using annual rainfall and selected basin characteristics at 86 gaged streams in the Hawaiian Islands, regional regression models for three stream classes were developed to estimate the annual low-flow duration discharges. Three panel-regression structures (random effects, fixed effects, and pooled) were compared to traditional regression methods, in which space is substituted for time. Results indicated that panel regression generally was able to reproduce the temporal behavior of streamflow and reduce the standard errors of model coefficients compared to traditional regression, even for models in which the unobserved heterogeneity between streams is significant and the variance inflation factor for rainfall is much greater than 10. This is because both spatial and temporal variability were better characterized in panel regression. In a case study, regional rainfall elasticities estimated from panel regressions were applied to ungaged basins on Maui, using available rainfall projections to estimate plausible changes in surface-water availability and usable stream habitat for native species. The presented panel-regression framework is shown to offer benefits over existing traditional hydrologic regression methods for developing robust regional relations to investigate streamflow response in a changing climate.

  6. How People Use Social Information to Find out What to Want in the Paradigmatic Case of Inter-temporal Preferences

    PubMed Central

    Dolan, Raymond J.

    2016-01-01

    The weight with which a specific outcome feature contributes to preference quantifies a person’s ‘taste’ for that feature. However, far from being fixed personality characteristics, tastes are plastic. They tend to align, for example, with those of others even if such conformity is not rewarded. We hypothesised that people can be uncertain about their tastes. Personal tastes are therefore uncertain beliefs. People can thus learn about them by considering evidence, such as the preferences of relevant others, and then performing Bayesian updating. If a person’s choice variability reflects uncertainty, as in random-preference models, then a signature of Bayesian updating is that the degree of taste change should correlate with that person’s choice variability. Temporal discounting coefficients are an important example of taste–for patience. These coefficients quantify impulsivity, have good psychometric properties and can change upon observing others’ choices. We examined discounting preferences in a novel, large community study of 14–24 year olds. We assessed discounting behaviour, including decision variability, before and after participants observed another person’s choices. We found good evidence for taste uncertainty and for Bayesian taste updating. First, participants displayed decision variability which was better accounted for by a random-taste than by a response-noise model. Second, apparent taste shifts were well described by a Bayesian model taking into account taste uncertainty and the relevance of social information. Our findings have important neuroscientific, clinical and developmental significance. PMID:27447491

  7. [Desmoid tumors in three patients].

    PubMed

    Mohos, E; Kovács, T; Brittig, F; Nagy, A

    2001-12-01

    Desmoids are rare tumors of the connective tissue. It develops about 1:1000 times more in patients with familial adenomatous polyposis (FAP, Gardner syndrome) compared to normal population. It has been shown in molecular genetic examinations, that different mutations of the APC gene are responsible for desmoid tumors in FAP. It means, that this disease is one of the extraintestinal manifestations of Gardner syndrome. This tumor has high recurrence rate and is growing rapidly, and as a result it is the second most common cause of death in FAP patients. That is why genetic examination for FAP patients is advised to decide if the patient has higher risk for desmoid formation. If the result of the genetic test is positive, it is advisable to try to slow the progression of polyposis with medical treatment, and so to delay the date of the colectomy because the surgical intervention--and connective tissue damage--can induce desmoid formation in these patients. At the same time it is reasonable to examine and regularly control patients with sporadic desmoid tumors searching for other manifestations of Gardner syndrome (colon, stomach and duodenum polyposis, tumor of papilla Vateri, retinopathy, etc.). Palliative surgery is not indicated in patients with inoperable intraabdominal desmoid tumors, because partial resections (R1, R2, debulking) result in further tumor progression. In these patients medical treatment (sulindac, tamoxifen), chemotherapy (doxorubicin, dacarbazin) and radiotherapy or combination of them can result tumor remission. We describe our three patients (an abdominal wall desmoid four years following Cesarean section; a desmoid tumor in the retroperitoneum and in the pelvis diagnosed three years after total colectomy; and a retroperitoneal and abdominal wall desmoid one year after total colectomy) and etiology, diagnosis and therapy of desmoid tumors are discussed.

  8. Severe Gardner syndrome in families with mutations restricted to a specific region of the APC gene

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Davies, D.R.; Armstrong, J.G.; Thakker, N.

    Familial adenomatous polyposis (FAP) is associated with a number of extraintestinal manifestations, which include osteomas, epidermoid cysts, and desmoid tumors, often referred to as {open_quotes}Gardner syndrome.{close_quotes} Recent studies have suggested that some of the phenotypic features of FAP are dependent on the position of the mutation within the APC gene. In particular, the correlation between congenital hypertrophy of the retinal pigment epithelium (CHRPE) and APC genotype indicates that affected families may be divided into distinct groups. We have investigated the association between the dento-osseous features of GS on dental panoramic radiographs (DPRs) and APC genotype in a regional cohort ofmore » FAP families. DPRs were performed on 84 affected individuals from 36 families, and the dento-osseous features of FAP were quantified by a weighted scoring system. Significant DPR abnormalities were present in 69% of affected individuals. The APC gene mutation was identified in 27 of these families, and for statistical analysis these were subdivided into three groups. Group 1 comprised 18 affected individuals from seven families with mutations 5{prime} of exon 9; these families (except one) did not express CHRPE. Groups 2 comprised 38 individuals from 16 families with mutations between exon 9 and codon 1444, all of whom expressed CHRPE. Group 3 comprised 11 individuals from four families with mutations 3{prime} of codon 1444, none of whom expressed CHRPE. Families with mutations 3{prime} of codon 1444 had significantly more lesions on DPRs (P < .001) and appeared to have a higher incidence of desmoid tumors. These results suggest that severity of some of the features of Gardner syndrome may correlate with genotype in FAP. 32 refs., 2 figs., 2 tabs.« less

  9. Species-to-species rate coefficients for the H3+ + H2 reacting system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sipilä, O.; Harju, J.; Caselli, P.

    2017-10-01

    Aims: We study whether or not rotational excitation can make a large difference to chemical models of the abundances of the H3+ isotopologs, including spin states, in physical conditions corresponding to starless cores and protostellar envelopes. Methods: We developed a new rate coefficient set for the chemistry of the H3+ isotopologs, allowing for rotational excitation, using previously published state-to-state rate coefficients. These new so-called species-to-species rate coefficients are compared with previously-used ground-state-to-species rate coefficients by calculating chemical evolution in variable physical conditions using a pseudo-time-dependent chemical code. Results: We find that the new species-to-species model produces different results to the ground state-to-species model at high density and toward increasing temperatures (T> 10 K). The most prominent difference is that the species-to-species model predicts a lower H3+ deuteration degree at high density owing to an increase of the rate coefficients of endothermic reactions that tend to decrease deuteration. For example at 20 K, the ground-state-to-species model overestimates the abundance of H2D+ by a factor of about two, while the abundance of D3+ can differ by up to an order of magnitude between the models. The spin-state abundance ratios of the various H3+ isotopologs are also affected, and the new model better reproduces recent observations of the abundances of ortho and para H2D+ and D2H+. The main caveat is that the applicability regime of the new rate coefficients depends on the critical densities of the various rotational transitions which vary with the abundances of the species and the temperature in dense clouds. Conclusions: The difference in the abundances of the H3+ isotopologs predicted by the species-to-species and ground state-to-species models is negligible at 10 K corresponding to physical conditions in starless cores, but inclusion of the excited states is very important in studies of deuteration at higher temperatures, for example in protostellar envelopes. The species-to-species rate coefficients provide a more realistic approach to the chemistry of the H3+ isotopologs than the ground-state-to-species rate coefficients do, and so the former should be adopted in chemical models describing the chemistry of the H3+ + H2 reacting system.

  10. Monthly gravity field solutions based on GRACE observations generated with the Celestial Mechanics Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meyer, Ulrich; Jäggi, Adrian; Beutler, Gerhard

    2012-09-01

    The main objective of the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission consists of determining the temporal variations of the Earth's gravity field. These variations are captured by time series of gravity field models of limited resolution at, e.g., monthly intervals. We present a new time series of monthly models, which was computed with the so-called Celestial Mechanics Approach (CMA), developed at the Astronomical Institute of the University of Bern (AIUB). The secular and seasonal variations in the monthly models are tested for statistical significance. Calibrated errors are derived from inter-annual variations. The time-variable signal can be extracted at least up to degree 60, but the gravity field coefficients of orders above 45 are heavily contaminated by noise. This is why a series of monthly models is computed up to a maximum degree of 60, but only a maximum order of 45. Spectral analysis of the residual time-variable signal shows a distinctive peak at a period of 160 days, which shows up in particular in the C20 spherical harmonic coefficient. Basic filter- and scaling-techniques are introduced to evaluate the monthly models. For this purpose, the variability over the oceans is investigated, which serves as a measure for the noisiness of the models. The models in selected regions show the expected seasonal and secular variations, which are in good agreement with the monthly models of the Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ). The results also reveal a few small outliers, illustrating the necessity for improved data screening. Our monthly models are available at the web page of the International Centre for Global Earth Models (ICGEM).

  11. Can mountain glacier melting explains the GRACE-observed mass loss in the southeast Tibetan Plateau: From a climate perspective?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Song, Chunqiao; Ke, Linghong; Huang, Bo; Richards, Keith S.

    2015-01-01

    The southeast Tibetan Plateau (SETP) includes the majority of monsoonal temperate glaciers in High Mountain Asia (HMA), which is an important source of water for the upper reaches of several large Asian river systems. Climatic change and variability has substantial impacts on cryosphere and hydrological processes in the SETP. The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) gravimetry observations between 2003 and 2009 suggest that there was an average mass loss rate of - 5.99 ± 2.78 Gigatonnes (Gt)/yr in this region. Meanwhile, the hydrological data by model calculations from the GLDAS/Noah and CPC are used to estimate terrestrial water storage (TWS) changes with a slight negative trend of about - 0.3 Gt/yr. The recent studies (Kääb et al., 2012; Gardner et al., 2013) reported the thinning rates of mountain glaciers in HMA based on the satellite laser altimetry, and an approximate estimation of the glacier mass budget in the SETP was 4.69 ± 2.03 Gt/yr during 2003-2009. This estimate accounted for a large proportion ( 78.3%) of the difference between the GRACE TWS and model-calculated TWS changes. To better understand the cause of sharp mass loss existing in the SETP, the correlations between key climatic variables (precipitation and temperature) and the GRACE TWS changes are examined at different timescales between 2003 and 2011. The results show that precipitation is the leading factors of abrupt, seasonal and multi-year undulating signals of GRACE TWS anomaly time series, but with weak correlations with the inter-annual trend and annual mass budget of GRACE TWS. In contrast, the annual mean temperature is tightly associated with the annual net mass budget (r = 0.81, p < 0.01), which indirectly suggests that the GRACE-observed mass loss in the SETP may be highly related to glacial processes.

  12. Spatiotemporal variability of light-absorbing carbon concentration in a residential area impacted by woodsmoke.

    PubMed

    Krecl, Patricia; Johansson, Christer; Ström, Johan

    2010-03-01

    Residential wood combustion (RWC) is responsible for 33% of the total carbon mass emitted in Europe. With the new European targets to increase the use of renewable energy, there is a growing concern that the population exposure to woodsmoke will also increase. This study investigates observed and simulated light-absorbing carbon mass (MLAC) concentrations in a residential neighborhood (Lycksele, Sweden) where RWC is a major air pollution source during winter. The measurement analysis included descriptive statistics, correlation coefficient, coefficient of divergence, linear regression, concentration roses, diurnal pattern, and weekend versus weekday concentration ratios. Hourly RWC and road traffic contributions to MLAC were simulated with a Gaussian dispersion model to assess whether the model was able to mimic the observations. Hourly mean and standard deviation concentrations measured at six sites ranged from 0.58 to 0.74 microg m(-3) and from 0.59 to 0.79 microg m(-3), respectively. The temporal and spatial variability decreased with increasing averaging time. Low-wind periods with relatively high MLAC concentrations correlated more strongly than high-wind periods with low concentrations. On average, the model overestimated the observations by 3- to 5-fold and explained less than 10% of the measured hourly variability at all sites. Large residual concentrations were associated with weak winds and relatively high MLAC loadings. The explanation of the observed variability increased to 31-45% when daily mean concentrations were compared. When the contribution from the boilers within the neighborhood was excluded from the simulations, the model overestimation decreased to 16-71%. When assessing the exposure to light-absorbing carbon particles using this type of model, the authors suggest using a longer averaging period (i.e., daily concentrations) in a larger area with an updated and very detailed emission inventory.

  13. GWM-a ground-water management process for the U.S. Geological Survey modular ground-water model (MODFLOW-2000)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ahlfeld, David P.; Barlow, Paul M.; Mulligan, Anne E.

    2005-01-01

    GWM is a Ground?Water Management Process for the U.S. Geological Survey modular three?dimensional ground?water model, MODFLOW?2000. GWM uses a response?matrix approach to solve several types of linear, nonlinear, and mixed?binary linear ground?water management formulations. Each management formulation consists of a set of decision variables, an objective function, and a set of constraints. Three types of decision variables are supported by GWM: flow?rate decision variables, which are withdrawal or injection rates at well sites; external decision variables, which are sources or sinks of water that are external to the flow model and do not directly affect the state variables of the simulated ground?water system (heads, streamflows, and so forth); and binary variables, which have values of 0 or 1 and are used to define the status of flow?rate or external decision variables. Flow?rate decision variables can represent wells that extend over one or more model cells and be active during one or more model stress periods; external variables also can be active during one or more stress periods. A single objective function is supported by GWM, which can be specified to either minimize or maximize the weighted sum of the three types of decision variables. Four types of constraints can be specified in a GWM formulation: upper and lower bounds on the flow?rate and external decision variables; linear summations of the three types of decision variables; hydraulic?head based constraints, including drawdowns, head differences, and head gradients; and streamflow and streamflow?depletion constraints. The Response Matrix Solution (RMS) Package of GWM uses the Ground?Water Flow Process of MODFLOW to calculate the change in head at each constraint location that results from a perturbation of a flow?rate variable; these changes are used to calculate the response coefficients. For linear management formulations, the resulting matrix of response coefficients is then combined with other components of the linear management formulation to form a complete linear formulation; the formulation is then solved by use of the simplex algorithm, which is incorporated into the RMS Package. Nonlinear formulations arise for simulated conditions that include water?table (unconfined) aquifers or head?dependent boundary conditions (such as streams, drains, or evapotranspiration from the water table). Nonlinear formulations are solved by sequential linear programming; that is, repeated linearization of the nonlinear features of the management problem. In this approach, response coefficients are recalculated for each iteration of the solution process. Mixed?binary linear (or mildly nonlinear) formulations are solved by use of the branch and bound algorithm, which is also incorporated into the RMS Package. Three sample problems are provided to demonstrate the use of GWM for typical ground?water flow management problems. These sample problems provide examples of how GWM input files are constructed to specify the decision variables, objective function, constraints, and solution process for a GWM run. The GWM Process runs with the MODFLOW?2000 Global and Ground?Water Flow Processes, but in its current form GWM cannot be used with the Observation, Sensitivity, Parameter?Estimation, or Ground?Water Transport Processes. The GWM Process is written with a modular structure so that new objective functions, constraint types, and solution algorithms can be added.

  14. Soliton interactions, Bäcklund transformations, Lax pair for a variable-coefficient generalized dispersive water-wave system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Lei; Tian, Bo; Zhen, Hui-Ling; Liu, De-Yin; Xie, Xi-Yang

    2018-04-01

    Under investigation in this paper is a variable-coefficient generalized dispersive water-wave system, which can simulate the propagation of the long weakly non-linear and weakly dispersive surface waves of variable depth in the shallow water. Under certain variable-coefficient constraints, by virtue of the Bell polynomials, Hirota method and symbolic computation, the bilinear forms, one- and two-soliton solutions are obtained. Bäcklund transformations and new Lax pair are also obtained. Our Lax pair is different from that previously reported. Based on the asymptotic and graphic analysis, with different forms of the variable coefficients, we find that there exist the elastic interactions for u, while either the elastic or inelastic interactions for v, with u and v as the horizontal velocity field and deviation height from the equilibrium position of the water, respectively. When the interactions are inelastic, we see the fission and fusion phenomena.

  15. Development of uncertainty-based work injury model using Bayesian structural equation modelling.

    PubMed

    Chatterjee, Snehamoy

    2014-01-01

    This paper proposed a Bayesian method-based structural equation model (SEM) of miners' work injury for an underground coal mine in India. The environmental and behavioural variables for work injury were identified and causal relationships were developed. For Bayesian modelling, prior distributions of SEM parameters are necessary to develop the model. In this paper, two approaches were adopted to obtain prior distribution for factor loading parameters and structural parameters of SEM. In the first approach, the prior distributions were considered as a fixed distribution function with specific parameter values, whereas, in the second approach, prior distributions of the parameters were generated from experts' opinions. The posterior distributions of these parameters were obtained by applying Bayesian rule. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling in the form Gibbs sampling was applied for sampling from the posterior distribution. The results revealed that all coefficients of structural and measurement model parameters are statistically significant in experts' opinion-based priors, whereas, two coefficients are not statistically significant when fixed prior-based distributions are applied. The error statistics reveals that Bayesian structural model provides reasonably good fit of work injury with high coefficient of determination (0.91) and less mean squared error as compared to traditional SEM.

  16. Decentralization and the Composition of Public Expenditures

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2012-01-01

    decentralized governance and expenditure composition by means of a distance-sensitive representative agent model. Then we estimate the impact of fiscal...countries with regards to population age structure. We are not certain of what effects that may have in our estimates , but previous studies have found find...variables to estimate a scalar value for g(xβ), which then is multiplied to each variables coefficient. For this, we choose the mean values of the

  17. Isolating the cow-specific part of residual energy intake in lactating dairy cows using random regressions.

    PubMed

    Fischer, A; Friggens, N C; Berry, D P; Faverdin, P

    2018-07-01

    The ability to properly assess and accurately phenotype true differences in feed efficiency among dairy cows is key to the development of breeding programs for improving feed efficiency. The variability among individuals in feed efficiency is commonly characterised by the residual intake approach. Residual feed intake is represented by the residuals of a linear regression of intake on the corresponding quantities of the biological functions that consume (or release) energy. However, the residuals include both, model fitting and measurement errors as well as any variability in cow efficiency. The objective of this study was to isolate the individual animal variability in feed efficiency from the residual component. Two separate models were fitted, in one the standard residual energy intake (REI) was calculated as the residual of a multiple linear regression of lactation average net energy intake (NEI) on lactation average milk energy output, average metabolic BW, as well as lactation loss and gain of body condition score. In the other, a linear mixed model was used to simultaneously fit fixed linear regressions and random cow levels on the biological traits and intercept using fortnight repeated measures for the variables. This method split the predicted NEI in two parts: one quantifying the population mean intercept and coefficients, and one quantifying cow-specific deviations in the intercept and coefficients. The cow-specific part of predicted NEI was assumed to isolate true differences in feed efficiency among cows. NEI and associated energy expenditure phenotypes were available for the first 17 fortnights of lactation from 119 Holstein cows; all fed a constant energy-rich diet. Mixed models fitting cow-specific intercept and coefficients to different combinations of the aforementioned energy expenditure traits, calculated on a fortnightly basis, were compared. The variance of REI estimated with the lactation average model represented only 8% of the variance of measured NEI. Among all compared mixed models, the variance of the cow-specific part of predicted NEI represented between 53% and 59% of the variance of REI estimated from the lactation average model or between 4% and 5% of the variance of measured NEI. The remaining 41% to 47% of the variance of REI estimated with the lactation average model may therefore reflect model fitting errors or measurement errors. In conclusion, the use of a mixed model framework with cow-specific random regressions seems to be a promising method to isolate the cow-specific component of REI in dairy cows.

  18. The Yale-Brown Obsessive Compulsive Scale: A Reliability Generalization Meta-Analysis.

    PubMed

    López-Pina, José Antonio; Sánchez-Meca, Julio; López-López, José Antonio; Marín-Martínez, Fulgencio; Núñez-Núñez, Rosa Maria; Rosa-Alcázar, Ana I; Gómez-Conesa, Antonia; Ferrer-Requena, Josefa

    2015-10-01

    The Yale-Brown Obsessive Compulsive Scale (Y-BOCS) is the most frequently applied test to assess obsessive compulsive symptoms. We conducted a reliability generalization meta-analysis on the Y-BOCS to estimate the average reliability, examine the variability among the reliability estimates, search for moderators, and propose a predictive model that researchers and clinicians can use to estimate the expected reliability of the Y-BOCS. We included studies where the Y-BOCS was applied to a sample of adults and reliability estimate was reported. Out of the 11,490 references located, 144 studies met the selection criteria. For the total scale, the mean reliability was 0.866 for coefficients alpha, 0.848 for test-retest correlations, and 0.922 for intraclass correlations. The moderator analyses led to a predictive model where the standard deviation of the total test and the target population (clinical vs. nonclinical) explained 38.6% of the total variability among coefficients alpha. Finally, clinical implications of the results are discussed. © The Author(s) 2014.

  19. Stability of Core Language Skill Stability of Core Language Skill from Early Childhood to Adolescence: A Latent Variable Approach

    PubMed Central

    Bornstein, Marc H.; Hahn, Chun-Shin; Putnick, Diane L.; Suwalsky, Joan T. D.

    2014-01-01

    This four-wave prospective longitudinal study evaluated stability of language in 324 children from early childhood to adolescence. Structural equation modeling supported loadings of multiple age-appropriate multi-source measures of child language on single-factor core language skills at 20 months and 4, 10, and 14 years. Large stability coefficients (standardized indirect effect = .46) were obtained between language latent variables from early childhood to adolescence and accounting for child nonverbal intelligence and social competence and maternal verbal intelligence, education, speech, and social desirability. Stability coefficients were similar for girls and boys. Stability of core language skill was stronger from 4 to 10 to 14 years than from 20 months to 4 years, so early intervention to improve lagging language is recommended. PMID:25165797

  20. Statistical Analysis of Tsunami Variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zolezzi, Francesca; Del Giudice, Tania; Traverso, Chiara; Valfrè, Giulio; Poggi, Pamela; Parker, Eric J.

    2010-05-01

    The purpose of this paper was to investigate statistical variability of seismically generated tsunami impact. The specific goal of the work was to evaluate the variability in tsunami wave run-up due to uncertainty in fault rupture parameters (source effects) and to the effects of local bathymetry at an individual location (site effects). This knowledge is critical to development of methodologies for probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment. Two types of variability were considered: • Inter-event; • Intra-event. Generally, inter-event variability refers to the differences of tsunami run-up at a given location for a number of different earthquake events. The focus of the current study was to evaluate the variability of tsunami run-up at a given point for a given magnitude earthquake. In this case, the variability is expected to arise from lack of knowledge regarding the specific details of the fault rupture "source" parameters. As sufficient field observations are not available to resolve this question, numerical modelling was used to generate run-up data. A scenario magnitude 8 earthquake in the Hellenic Arc was modelled. This is similar to the event thought to have caused the infamous 1303 tsunami. The tsunami wave run-up was computed at 4020 locations along the Egyptian coast between longitudes 28.7° E and 33.8° E. Specific source parameters (e.g. fault rupture length and displacement) were varied, and the effects on wave height were determined. A Monte Carlo approach considering the statistical distribution of the underlying parameters was used to evaluate the variability in wave height at locations along the coast. The results were evaluated in terms of the coefficient of variation of the simulated wave run-up (standard deviation divided by mean value) for each location. The coefficient of variation along the coast was between 0.14 and 3.11, with an average value of 0.67. The variation was higher in areas of irregular coast. This level of variability is similar to that seen in ground motion attenuation correlations used for seismic hazard assessment. The second issue was intra-event variability. This refers to the differences in tsunami wave run-up along a section of coast during a single event. Intra-event variability investigated directly considering field observations. The tsunami events used in the statistical evaluation were selected on the basis of the completeness and reliability of the available data. Tsunami considered for the analysis included the recent and well surveyed tsunami of Boxing Day 2004 (Great Indian Ocean Tsunami), Java 2006, Okushiri 1993, Kocaeli 1999, Messina 1908 and a case study of several historic events in Hawaii. Basic statistical analysis was performed on the field observations from these tsunamis. For events with very wide survey regions, the run-up heights have been grouped in order to maintain a homogeneous distance from the source. Where more than one survey was available for a given event, the original datasets were maintained separately to avoid combination of non-homogeneous data. The observed run-up measurements were used to evaluate the minimum, maximum, average, standard deviation and coefficient of variation for each data set. The minimum coefficient of variation was 0.12 measured for the 2004 Boxing Day tsunami at Nias Island (7 data) while the maximum is 0.98 for the Okushiri 1993 event (93 data). The average coefficient of variation is of the order of 0.45.

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