Assessing Variability in Brain Tumor Segmentation to Improve Volumetric Accuracy and Characterization of Change.

PubMed

Rios Piedra, Edgar A; Taira, Ricky K; El-Saden, Suzie; Ellingson, Benjamin M; Bui, Alex A T; Hsu, William

2016-02-01

Brain tumor analysis is moving towards volumetric assessment of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), providing a more precise description of disease progression to better inform clinical decision-making and treatment planning. While a multitude of segmentation approaches exist, inherent variability in the results of these algorithms may incorrectly indicate changes in tumor volume. In this work, we present a systematic approach to characterize variability in tumor boundaries that utilizes equivalence tests as a means to determine whether a tumor volume has significantly changed over time. To demonstrate these concepts, 32 MRI studies from 8 patients were segmented using four different approaches (statistical classifier, region-based, edge-based, knowledge-based) to generate different regions of interest representing tumor extent. We showed that across all studies, the average Dice coefficient for the superset of the different methods was 0.754 (95% confidence interval 0.701-0.808) when compared to a reference standard. We illustrate how variability obtained by different segmentations can be used to identify significant changes in tumor volume between sequential time points. Our study demonstrates that variability is an inherent part of interpreting tumor segmentation results and should be considered as part of the interpretation process.

A method for screening climate change-sensitive infectious diseases.

PubMed

Wang, Yunjing; Rao, Yuhan; Wu, Xiaoxu; Zhao, Hainan; Chen, Jin

2015-01-14

Climate change is a significant and emerging threat to human health, especially where infectious diseases are involved. Because of the complex interactions between climate variables and infectious disease components (i.e., pathogen, host and transmission environment), systematically and quantitatively screening for infectious diseases that are sensitive to climate change is still a challenge. To address this challenge, we propose a new statistical indicator, Relative Sensitivity, to identify the difference between the sensitivity of the infectious disease to climate variables for two different climate statuses (i.e., historical climate and present climate) in non-exposure and exposure groups. The case study in Anhui Province, China has demonstrated the effectiveness of this Relative Sensitivity indicator. The application results indicate significant sensitivity of many epidemic infectious diseases to climate change in the form of changing climatic variables, such as temperature, precipitation and absolute humidity. As novel evidence, this research shows that absolute humidity has a critical influence on many observed infectious diseases in Anhui Province, including dysentery, hand, foot and mouth disease, hepatitis A, hemorrhagic fever, typhoid fever, malaria, meningitis, influenza and schistosomiasis. Moreover, some infectious diseases are more sensitive to climate change in rural areas than in urban areas. This insight provides guidance for future health inputs that consider spatial variability in response to climate change.

A Method for Screening Climate Change-Sensitive Infectious Diseases

PubMed Central

Wang, Yunjing; Rao, Yuhan; Wu, Xiaoxu; Zhao, Hainan; Chen, Jin

2015-01-01

Climate change is a significant and emerging threat to human health, especially where infectious diseases are involved. Because of the complex interactions between climate variables and infectious disease components (i.e., pathogen, host and transmission environment), systematically and quantitatively screening for infectious diseases that are sensitive to climate change is still a challenge. To address this challenge, we propose a new statistical indicator, Relative Sensitivity, to identify the difference between the sensitivity of the infectious disease to climate variables for two different climate statuses (i.e., historical climate and present climate) in non-exposure and exposure groups. The case study in Anhui Province, China has demonstrated the effectiveness of this Relative Sensitivity indicator. The application results indicate significant sensitivity of many epidemic infectious diseases to climate change in the form of changing climatic variables, such as temperature, precipitation and absolute humidity. As novel evidence, this research shows that absolute humidity has a critical influence on many observed infectious diseases in Anhui Province, including dysentery, hand, foot and mouth disease, hepatitis A, hemorrhagic fever, typhoid fever, malaria, meningitis, influenza and schistosomiasis. Moreover, some infectious diseases are more sensitive to climate change in rural areas than in urban areas. This insight provides guidance for future health inputs that consider spatial variability in response to climate change. PMID:25594780

Recent changes in county-level corn yield variability in the United States from observations and crop models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Leng, Guoyong

The United States is responsible for 35% and 60% of global corn supply and exports. Enhanced supply stability through a reduction in the year-to-year variability of US corn yield would greatly benefit global food security. Important in this regard is to understand how corn yield variability has evolved geographically in the history and how it relates to climatic and non-climatic factors. Results showed that year-to-year variation of US corn yield has decreased significantly during 1980-2010, mainly in Midwest Corn Belt, Nebraska and western arid regions. Despite the country-scale decreasing variability, corn yield variability exhibited an increasing trend in South Dakota,more » Texas and Southeast growing regions, indicating the importance of considering spatial scales in estimating yield variability. The observed pattern is partly reproduced by process-based crop models, simulating larger areas experiencing increasing variability and underestimating the magnitude of decreasing variability. And 3 out of 11 models even produced a differing sign of change from observations. Hence, statistical model which produces closer agreement with observations is used to explore the contribution of climatic and non-climatic factors to the changes in yield variability. It is found that climate variability dominate the change trends of corn yield variability in the Midwest Corn Belt, while the ability of climate variability in controlling yield variability is low in southeastern and western arid regions. Irrigation has largely reduced the corn yield variability in regions (e.g. Nebraska) where separate estimates of irrigated and rain-fed corn yield exist, demonstrating the importance of non-climatic factors in governing the changes in corn yield variability. The results highlight the distinct spatial patterns of corn yield variability change as well as its influencing factors at the county scale. I also caution the use of process-based crop models, which have substantially underestimated the change trend of corn yield variability, in projecting its future changes.« less

Intraindividual variability is related to cognitive change in older adults: evidence for within-person coupling.

PubMed

Bielak, Allison A M; Hultsch, David F; Strauss, Esther; MacDonald, Stuart W S; Hunter, Michael A

2010-09-01

In this study, the authors addressed the longitudinal nature of intraindividual variability over 3 years. A sample of 304 community-dwelling older adults, initially between the ages of 64 and 92 years, completed 4 waves of annual testing on a battery of accuracy- and latency-based tests covering a wide range of cognitive complexity. Increases in response-time inconsistency on moderately and highly complex tasks were associated with increasing age, but there were significant individual differences in change across the entire sample. The time-varying covariation between cognition and inconsistency was significant across the 1-year intervals and remained stable across both time and age. On occasions when intraindividual variability was high, participants' cognitive performance was correspondingly low. The strength of the coupling relationship was greater for more fluid cognitive domains such as memory, reasoning, and processing speed than for more crystallized domains such as verbal ability. Variability based on moderately and highly complex tasks provided the strongest prediction. These results suggest that intraindividual variability is highly sensitive to even subtle changes in cognitive ability. (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved.

Climate Variability and Phytoplankton in the Pacific Ocean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rousseaux, Cecile

2012-01-01

The effect of climate variability on phytoplankton communities was assessed for the tropical and sub-tropical Pacific Ocean between 1998 and 2005 using an established biogeochemical assimilation model. The phytoplankton communities exhibited wide range of responses to climate variability, from radical shifts in the Equatorial Pacific, to changes of only a couple of phytoplankton groups in the North Central Pacific, to no significant changes in the South Pacific. In the Equatorial Pacific, climate variability dominated the variability of phytoplankton. Here, nitrate, chlorophyll and all but one of the 4 phytoplankton types (diatoms, cyanobacteria and coccolithophores) were strongly correlated (p<0.01) with the Multivariate El Nino Southern Oscillation Index (MEI). In the North Central Pacific, MEI and chlorophyll were significantly (p<0.01) correlated along with two of the phytoplankton groups (chlorophytes and coccolithophores). Ocean biology in the South Pacific was not significantly correlated with MEI. During La Nina events, diatoms increased and expanded westward along the cold tongue (correlation with MEI, r=-0.81), while cyanobacteria concentrations decreased significantly (r=0.78). El Nino produced the reverse pattern, with cyanobacteria populations increasing while diatoms plummeted. The diverse response of phytoplankton in the different major basins of the Pacific suggests the different roles climate variability can play in ocean biology.

[Dietary intervention programs in the workplace: an effective prevention strategy].

PubMed

Barbato, D Lettieri; Sancini, A; Caciari, T; Rosati, M V; Tomei, G; Tomei, F

2010-01-01

The main purpose of our meta-analysis was to investigate the effect of workplace dietary intervention on several variables. We made a systematic literature search by selecting articles published up to September 2009. Only 18 studies were deemed suitable for inclusion criteria considered in our meta-analysis. Among the dietary variables there was significant difference between the two groups after the administration of nutritional intervention programs. A significant improvement was also observed between the anthropometric and metabolic variables. No significant change was instead documented in relation to functional variables (systolic and diastolic pressure). Workplace dietary intervention, improving nutritional, anthropometrical and metabolic variables, can be identified as effective prevention strategy toward chronic diseases.

Improving power to detect changes in blood miRNA expression by accounting for sources of variability in experimental designs.

PubMed

Daniels, Sarah I; Sillé, Fenna C M; Goldbaum, Audrey; Yee, Brenda; Key, Ellen F; Zhang, Luoping; Smith, Martyn T; Thomas, Reuben

2014-12-01

Blood miRNAs are a new promising area of disease research, but variability in miRNA measurements may limit detection of true-positive findings. Here, we measured sources of miRNA variability and determine whether repeated measures can improve power to detect fold-change differences between comparison groups. Blood from healthy volunteers (N = 12) was collected at three time points. The miRNAs were extracted by a method predetermined to give the highest miRNA yield. Nine different miRNAs were quantified using different qPCR assays and analyzed using mixed models to identify sources of variability. A larger number of miRNAs from a publicly available blood miRNA microarray dataset with repeated measures were used for a bootstrapping procedure to investigate effects of repeated measures on power to detect fold changes in miRNA expression for a theoretical case-control study. Technical variability in qPCR replicates was identified as a significant source of variability (P < 0.05) for all nine miRNAs tested. Variability was larger in the TaqMan qPCR assays (SD = 0.15-0.61) versus the qScript qPCR assays (SD = 0.08-0.14). Inter- and intraindividual and extraction variability also contributed significantly for two miRNAs. The bootstrapping procedure demonstrated that repeated measures (20%-50% of N) increased detection of a 2-fold change for approximately 10% to 45% more miRNAs. Statistical power to detect small fold changes in blood miRNAs can be improved by accounting for sources of variability using repeated measures and choosing appropriate methods to minimize variability in miRNA quantification. This study demonstrates the importance of including repeated measures in experimental designs for blood miRNA research. See all the articles in this CEBP Focus section, "Biomarkers, Biospecimens, and New Technologies in Molecular Epidemiology." ©2014 American Association for Cancer Research.

Changes in heart rate variability are associated with expression of short-term and long-term contextual and cued fear memories.

PubMed

Liu, Jun; Wei, Wei; Kuang, Hui; Zhao, Fang; Tsien, Joe Z

2013-01-01

Heart physiology is a highly useful indicator for measuring not only physical states, but also emotional changes in animals. Yet changes of heart rate variability during fear conditioning have not been systematically studied in mice. Here, we investigated changes in heart rate and heart rate variability in both short-term and long-term contextual and cued fear conditioning. We found that while fear conditioning could increase heart rate, the most significant change was the reduction in heart rate variability which could be further divided into two distinct stages: a highly rhythmic phase (stage-I) and a more variable phase (stage-II). We showed that the time duration of the stage-I rhythmic phase were sensitive enough to reflect the transition from short-term to long-term fear memories. Moreover, it could also detect fear extinction effect during the repeated tone recall. These results suggest that heart rate variability is a valuable physiological indicator for sensitively measuring the consolidation and expression of fear memories in mice.

Pacific Decadal Variability and Central Pacific Warming El Niño in a Changing Climate

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Di Lorenzo, Emanuele

This research aimed at understanding the dynamics controlling decadal variability in the Pacific Ocean and its interactions with global-scale climate change. The first goal was to assess how the dynamics and statistics of the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the modes of Pacific decadal variability are represented in global climate models used in the IPCC. The second goal was to quantify how decadal dynamics are projected to change under continued greenhouse forcing, and determine their significance in the context of paleo-proxy reconstruction of long-term climate.

Examining for any impact of climate change on the association between seasonality and hospitalization for mania.

PubMed

Parker, Gordon B; Hadzi-Pavlovic, Dusan; Graham, Rebecca K

2017-01-15

Studies have established higher rates of hospitalization for mania in spring and summer and posit various explanatory climatic variables. As the earth's climate is changing, we pursue whether this is reflected in the yearly seasonal variation in hospitalizations for mania. This would be indicated by the presence of secular changes in both the hospitalization seasonal pattern and climatic variables, and associations between both variable sets. Data were obtained for 21,882 individuals hospitalized to psychiatric hospitals in the Australian state of New South Wales (NSW) over a 14-year period (2000-2014) with ICD-diagnosed mania - and with NSW population figures and salient climatic variables collected for the same period. Regression analyses were conducted to examine the predictive value of climate variables on hospital admissions. Data quantified a peak for manic admissions in spring of the southern hemisphere, in the months of October and November. There was a significant linear increase in manic admissions (0.5%/year) over the 14-year time period, with significant variation across years. In terms of climatic variables, there was a significant linear trend over the interval for solar radiation, although the trend indicated a decrease rather than an increase. Seasonal variation in admissions was most closely associated with two climate variables - evaporation in the current month and temperature in the previous month. Hospitalization rates do not necessarily provide an accurate estimate of the onset of manic episodes and findings may be limited to the southern hemisphere, or New South Wales. While overall findings do not support the hypothesis that climate change is leading to a higher seasonal impact for manic hospital admissions in the southern hemisphere, analyses identified two climate/weather variables - evaporation and temperature - that may account for the yearly spring excess. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Millennial-scale variability in the local radiocarbon reservoir age of the Florida Keys reef tract during the Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashe, E.; Toth, L. T.; Cheng, H.; Edwards, R. L.; Richey, J. N.

2016-12-01

The oceanic passage between the Florida Keys and Cuba, known as the Straits of Florida, provides a critical connection between the tropics and northern Atlantic. Changes in the character of water masses transported through this region may ultimately have important impacts on high-latitude climate variability. Although recent studies have documented significant changes in the density of regional surface waters over millennial timescales, little is known about the contribution of local- to regional-scale changes in circulation to surface-water variability. Local variability in the radiocarbon age, ΔR, of surface waters can be used to trace changes in local water-column mixing and/or changes in regional source water over a variety of spatial and temporal scales. We reconstructed "snapshots" of ΔR variability across the Florida Keys reef tract during the last 10,000 years by dating 68 unaltered corals collected from Holocene reef cores with both U-series and radiocarbon techniques. We combined the snapshots of ΔR into a semi-empirical model to develop a robust statistical reconstruction of millennial-scale variability in ΔR on the Florida Keys reef tract. Our model demonstrates that ΔR varied significantly during the Holocene, with relatively high values during the early Holocene and around 3000 years BP and relatively low values around 7000 years BP and at present. We compare the trends in ΔR to existing paleoceanographic reconstructions to evaluate the relative contribution of local upwelling versus changes in source water to the region as a whole in driving local radiocarbon variability, and discuss the importance of these results to our understanding of regional-scale oceanographic and climatic variability during the Holocene. We also discuss the implications of our results for radiocarbon dating of marine samples from south Florida and present a model of ΔR versus 14C age that can be used to improve the accuracy of radiocarbon calibrations from this region.

A Decline in Response Variability Improves Neural Signal Detection during Auditory Task Performance

PubMed Central

Buran, Bradley N.; Sen, Kamal; Semple, Malcolm N.; Sanes, Dan H.

2016-01-01

The detection of a sensory stimulus arises from a significant change in neural activity, but a sensory neuron's response is rarely identical to successive presentations of the same stimulus. Large trial-to-trial variability would limit the central nervous system's ability to reliably detect a stimulus, presumably affecting perceptual performance. However, if response variability were to decrease while firing rate remained constant, then neural sensitivity could improve. Here, we asked whether engagement in an auditory detection task can modulate response variability, thereby increasing neural sensitivity. We recorded telemetrically from the core auditory cortex of gerbils, both while they engaged in an amplitude-modulation detection task and while they sat quietly listening to the identical stimuli. Using a signal detection theory framework, we found that neural sensitivity was improved during task performance, and this improvement was closely associated with a decrease in response variability. Moreover, units with the greatest change in response variability had absolute neural thresholds most closely aligned with simultaneously measured perceptual thresholds. Our findings suggest that the limitations imposed by response variability diminish during task performance, thereby improving the sensitivity of neural encoding and potentially leading to better perceptual sensitivity. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT The detection of a sensory stimulus arises from a significant change in neural activity. However, trial-to-trial variability of the neural response may limit perceptual performance. If the neural response to a stimulus is quite variable, then the response on a given trial could be confused with the pattern of neural activity generated when the stimulus is absent. Therefore, a neural mechanism that served to reduce response variability would allow for better stimulus detection. By recording from the cortex of freely moving animals engaged in an auditory detection task, we found that variability of the neural response becomes smaller during task performance, thereby improving neural detection thresholds. PMID:27798189

Long-term variability and environmental preferences of calycophoran siphonophores in the Bay of Villefranche (north-western Mediterranean)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Licandro, P.; Souissi, S.; Ibanez, F.; Carré, C.

2012-05-01

Long-term variability of the main calycophoran siphonophores was investigated between 1974 and 1999 in a coastal station in the north-western Mediterranean. The data were collected at weekly frequency using a macroplankton net (680 μm mesh size) adapted to quantitatively sample delicate gelatinous plankton. A 3-year collection (1967-1969) of siphonophores from offshore waters using the same methodology showed that the patterns of variability observed inshore were representative of siphonophores’ changes at a regional scale. The aims of the study were: (i) to investigate the patterns of variability that characterised the dominant calycophoran species and assemblages; (ii) to identify the environmental optima that were associated with a significant increase in the dominant siphonophore species and (iii) to verify the influence of hydroclimatic variability on long-term changes of siphonophores. Our results showed that during nearly 3 decades the standing stock of calycophoran siphonophores did not show any significant change, with the annual maximum usually recorded in spring as a result of high densities of the dominant species Lensia subtilis, Muggiaea kochi and Muggiaea atlantica. Nevertheless, major changes in community composition occurred within the calycophoran population. Since the middle 1980s, M. kochi, once the most dominant species, started to decrease allowing other species, the congeneric M. atlantica and Chelophyes appendiculata, to increasingly dominate in spring and summer-autumn, respectively. The comparison of environmental and biotic long-term trends suggests that the decrease of M. kochi was triggered by hydrological changes that occurred in the north-western Mediterranean under the forcing of large-scale climate oscillations. Salinity, water stratification and water temperature were the main hydroclimatic factors associated with a significant increase of siphonophores, different species showing different environmental preferences.

The relative impacts of climate and land-use change on conterminous United States bird species from 2001 to 2075

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sohl, Terry L.

2014-01-01

Species distribution models often use climate data to assess contemporary and/or future ranges for animal or plant species. Land use and land cover (LULC) data are important predictor variables for determining species range, yet are rarely used when modeling future distributions. In this study, maximum entropy modeling was used to construct species distribution maps for 50 North American bird species to determine relative contributions of climate and LULC for contemporary (2001) and future (2075) time periods. Species presence data were used as a dependent variable, while climate, LULC, and topographic data were used as predictor variables. Results varied by species, but in general, measures of model fit for 2001 indicated significantly poorer fit when either climate or LULC data were excluded from model simulations. Climate covariates provided a higher contribution to 2001 model results than did LULC variables, although both categories of variables strongly contributed. The area deemed to be "suitable" for 2001 species presence was strongly affected by the choice of model covariates, with significantly larger ranges predicted when LULC was excluded as a covariate. Changes in species ranges for 2075 indicate much larger overall range changes due to projected climate change than due to projected LULC change. However, the choice of study area impacted results for both current and projected model applications, with truncation of actual species ranges resulting in lower model fit scores and increased difficulty in interpreting covariate impacts on species range. Results indicate species-specific response to climate and LULC variables; however, both climate and LULC variables clearly are important for modeling both contemporary and potential future species ranges.

The Relative Impacts of Climate and Land-Use Change on Conterminous United States Bird Species from 2001 to 2075

PubMed Central

Sohl, Terry L.

2014-01-01

Species distribution models often use climate data to assess contemporary and/or future ranges for animal or plant species. Land use and land cover (LULC) data are important predictor variables for determining species range, yet are rarely used when modeling future distributions. In this study, maximum entropy modeling was used to construct species distribution maps for 50 North American bird species to determine relative contributions of climate and LULC for contemporary (2001) and future (2075) time periods. Species presence data were used as a dependent variable, while climate, LULC, and topographic data were used as predictor variables. Results varied by species, but in general, measures of model fit for 2001 indicated significantly poorer fit when either climate or LULC data were excluded from model simulations. Climate covariates provided a higher contribution to 2001 model results than did LULC variables, although both categories of variables strongly contributed. The area deemed to be “suitable” for 2001 species presence was strongly affected by the choice of model covariates, with significantly larger ranges predicted when LULC was excluded as a covariate. Changes in species ranges for 2075 indicate much larger overall range changes due to projected climate change than due to projected LULC change. However, the choice of study area impacted results for both current and projected model applications, with truncation of actual species ranges resulting in lower model fit scores and increased difficulty in interpreting covariate impacts on species range. Results indicate species-specific response to climate and LULC variables; however, both climate and LULC variables clearly are important for modeling both contemporary and potential future species ranges. PMID:25372571

Climate variability differentially impacts thermal fitness traits in three coprophagic beetle species.

PubMed

Nyamukondiwa, Casper; Chidawanyika, Frank; Machekano, Honest; Mutamiswa, Reyard; Sands, Bryony; Mgidiswa, Neludo; Wall, Richard

2018-01-01

While the impacts of extreme and rising mean temperatures are well documented, increased thermal variability associated with climate change may also threaten ectotherm fitness and survival, but remains poorly explored. Using three wild collected coprophagic species Copris elphenor, Metacatharsius opacus and Scarabaeus zambezianus, we explored the effects of thermal amplitude around the mean on thermal tolerance. Using standardized protocols, we measured traits of high- (critical thermal maxima [CTmax] and heat knockdown time [HKDT]) and -low temperature tolerance (critical thermal minima [CTmin], chill coma recovery time [CCRT] and supercooling points [SCPs]) following variable temperature pulses (δ0, δ3, δ6 and δ9°C) around the mean (27°C). Our results show that increased temperature variability may offset basal and plastic responses to temperature and differs across species and metrics tested. Furthermore, we also show differential effects of body mass, body water content (BWC) and body lipid content (BLC) on traits of thermal tolerance. For example, body mass significantly influenced C. elphenor and S. zambezianus CTmax and S. zambezianus HKDT but not CTmin and CCRT. BWC significantly affected M. opacus and C. elphenor CTmax and in only M. opacus HKDT, CTmin and CCRT. Similarly, BLC only had a significant effect for M opacus CTmin. These results suggest differential and species dependent effects of climate variability of thermal fitness traits. It is therefore likely that the ecological services provided by these species may be constrained in the face of climate change. This implies that, to develop more realistic predictions for the effects of climate change on insect biodiversity and ecosystem function, thermal variability is a significant determinant.

Effect of Seasonal Changes in Soil Temperature and Moisture on Wood Consumption and Foraging Activity of the Formosan Subterranean Termite (Isoptera: Rhinotermitidae)

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The objective of this study was to determine whether seasonal changes cause significant effects on the foraging activity and wood consumption of C. formosanus in New Orleans and how changes in specific climatic variables affect termite foraging behavior. There was a significant correlation between w...

Changes in sodium and uric acid concentrations in plasma during the menstrual cycle.

PubMed

Mira, M; Stewart, P M; Gebski, V; Llewellyn-Jones, D; Abraham, S F

1984-03-01

Hormonal changes during the menstrual cycle are well documented, but many other biochemical variables have not been studied. We find that in the luteal phase of the menstrual cycle the concentrations of sodium and uric acid are significantly lower. The changes may be of significance for the determination of the normal reference interval.

Pharyngeal airway changes associated with maxillary distraction osteogenesis in adult cleft lip and palate patients.

PubMed

Aksu, Muge; Taner, Tülin; Sahin-Veske, Pınar; Kocadereli, Ilken; Konas, Ersoy; Mavili, Mehmet Emin

2012-02-01

To investigate 1) the changes in pharyngeal airway sizes associated with maxillary distraction osteogenesis and 2) the correlations between maxillary skeletal variables and the pharyngeal airway in adult patients with cleft lip and palate. The study was carried out in 14 adult subjects with cleft lip and palate. Predistraction records were taken at a mean age of 22.7 ± 4.6 years. All patients had placement of a rigid external distraction device (RED I; KLS Martin, Tuttlingen, Germany) after Le Fort I osteotomy. Lateral cephalograms were assessed before surgery and at short-term follow-up (8.0 ± 6.4 months). The cephalometric skeletal and pharyngeal airway variables were statistically evaluated by use of the Wilcoxon signed-rank test. Spearman ρ correlation was performed to check the correlations between maxillary skeletal and pharyngeal variables. The maxillary movement was 8.7 mm (P < .01). The maxillary depth angle (+7.9°) and effective maxillary length (9.4 mm) increased significantly (P < .01) after distraction, whereas the palatal plane angle remained unchanged. Anterior nasal spine (8.2 mm) and Posterior nasal spine (6.9 mm) moved anteriorly. The overjet increased (9.5 mm) significantly (P < .01). Posterior, superoposterior, and middle airway spaces increased significantly, with mean differences of 7.5 mm, 5.1 mm, and 3.3 mm, respectively. The soft palate moved anteriorly, with the greatest movement at its superior point. Significant positive correlations were observed for the posterior and superoposterior airway spaces and maxillary movement. PNS changes showed the highest correlation with posterior airway changes. The significant anterior movement of the maxilla resulted in significant increases in posterior, superoposterior, and middle airway spaces. The posterior airway space showed the highest significant positive correlation with the movement of PNS. The posterior and superoposterior airway spaces also showed significant positive correlations with the maxillary skeletal variables. Copyright © 2012 American Association of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Detecting changes resulting from human pressure in a naturally quick-changing and heterogeneous environment: Spatial and temporal scales of variability in coastal lagoons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pérez-Ruzafa, A.; Marcos, C.; Pérez-Ruzafa, I. M.; Barcala, E.; Hegazi, M. I.; Quispe, J.

2007-10-01

To detect changes in ecosystems due to human impact, experimental designs must include replicates at the appropriate scale to avoid pseudoreplication. Although coastal lagoons, with their highly variable environmental factors and biological assemblages, are relatively well-studied systems, very little is known about their natural scales of variation. In this study, we investigate the spatio-temporal scales of variability in the Mar Menor coastal lagoon (SE Spain) using structured hierarchical sampling designs, mixed and permutational multi-variate analyses of variance, and ordination multi-variate analyses applied to hydrographical parameters, nutrients, chlorophyll a and ichthyoplankton in the water column, and to macrophyte and fish benthic assemblages. Lagoon processes in the Mar Menor show heterogeneous patterns at different temporal and spatial scales. The water column characteristics (including nutrient concentration) showed small-scale spatio-temporal variability, from 10 0 to 10 1 km and from fortnightly to seasonally. Biological features (chlorophyll a concentration and ichthyoplankton assemblage descriptors) showed monthly changes and spatial patterns at the scale of 10 0 (chlorophyll a) - 10 1 km (ichthyoplankton). Benthic assemblages (macrophytes and fishes) showed significant differences between types of substrates in the same locality and between localities, according to horizontal gradients related with confinement in the lagoon, at the scale of 10 0-10 1 km. The vertical zonation of macrophyte assemblages (at scales of 10 1-10 2 cm) overlaps changes in substrata and horizontal gradients. Seasonal patterns in vegetation biomass were not significant, but the significant interaction between Locality and Season indicated that the seasons of maximum and minimum biomass depend on local environmental conditions. Benthic fish assemblages showed no significant patterns at the monthly scale but did show seasonal patterns.

Changes in the type of precipitation and associated cloud types in Eastern Romania (1961-2008)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manea, Ancuta; Birsan, Marius-Victor; Tudorache, George; Cărbunaru, Felicia

2016-03-01

Recent climate change is characterized (among other things) by changes in the frequency of some meteorological phenomena. This paper deals with the long-term changes in various precipitation types, and the connection between their variability and cloud type frequencies, at 11 meteorological stations from Eastern Romania over 1961-2008. These stations were selected with respect to data record completeness for all considered variables (weather phenomena and cloud type). The meteorological variables involved in the present study are: monthly number of days with rain, snowfall, snow showers, rain and snow (sleet), sleet showers and monthly frequency of the Cumulonimbus, Nimbostratus and Stratus clouds. Our results show that all stations present statistically significant decreasing trends in the number of days with rain in the warm period of the year. Changes in the frequency of days for each precipitation type show statistically significant decreasing trends for non-convective (stratiform) precipitation - rain, drizzle, sleet and snowfall -, while the frequencies of rain shower and snow shower (convective precipitation) are increasing. Cloud types show decreasing trends for Nimbostratus and Stratus, and increasing trends for Cumulonimbus.

The role of androgen receptor CAG repeat polymorphism and other factors which affect the clinical response to testosterone replacement in metabolic syndrome and type 2 diabetes: TIMES2 sub-study.

PubMed

Stanworth, R D; Akhtar, S; Channer, K S; Jones, T H

2014-02-01

The TIMES2 (testosterone replacement in hypogonadal men with either metabolic syndrome or type 2 diabetes) study reported beneficial effects of testosterone replacement therapy (TRT) on insulin resistance and other variables in men with diabetes or metabolic syndrome. The androgen receptor CAG repeat polymorphism (AR CAG) is known to affect stimulated AR activity and has been linked to various clinically relevant variables. To assess the role of AR CAG in the alteration of clinical response to TRT in the TIMES2 study. Subgroup analysis from a multicentre, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled and parallel group study. Outpatient study recruiting from secondary and primary care. A total of 139 men with hypogonadism and type 2 diabetes or metabolic syndrome, of which 73 received testosterone during the TIMES2 study. Testosterone 2% transdermal gel vs placebo. Regression coefficient of AR CAG from linear regression models for each variable. AR CAG was independently positively associated with change in fasting insulin, triglycerides and diastolic blood pressure during TRT with a trend to association with HOMA-IR - the primary outcome variable. There was a trend to negative association between AR CAG and change in PSA. There was no association of AR CAG with change in other glycaemic variables, other lipid variables or obesity. AR CAG affected the response of some variables to TRT in the TIMES2 study, although the association with HOMA-IR did not reach significance. Various factors may have limited the power of our study to detect the significant associations between AR CAG, testosterone levels and change in variables with testosterone treatment. Analysis of similar data sets from other clinical trials is warranted.

The Effect of ENSO on Phytoplankton Composition in the Pacific Ocean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rousseaux, Cecile

2012-01-01

The effect of climate variability on phytoplankton communities was assessed for the tropical and sub-tropical Pacific Ocean between 1998 and 2005 using an established biogeochemical assimilation model. The phytoplankton communities exhibited wide range of responses to climate variability, from radical shifts in the Equatorial Pacific, to changes of only a couple of phytoplankton groups in the North Central Pacific, to no significant changes in the South Pacific. In the Equatorial Pacific, climate variability dominated the variability of phytoplankton. Here, nitrate, chlorophyll and all but one of the 4 phytoplankton types (diatoms, cyanobacteria and coccolithophores) were strongly correlated (p less than 0.01) with the Multivariate El Nino Southern Oscillation Index (MEI). In the North Central Pacific, MEI and chlorophyll were significantly (p<0.01) correlated along with two of the phytoplankton groups (chlorophytes and coccolithophores). Ocean biology in the South Pacific was not significantly correlated with MEI. During La Ni a events, diatoms increased and expanded westward along the cold tongue (correlation with MEI, r=-0.81), while cyanobacteria concentrations decreased significantly (r=0.78). El Nino produced the reverse pattern, with cyanobacteria populations increasing while diatoms plummeted. The diverse response of phytoplankton in the different major basins of the Pacific suggests the different roles climate variability can play in ocean biology.

Conveying the Science of Climate Change: Explaining Natural Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chanton, J.

2011-12-01

One of the main problems in climate change education is reconciling the role of humans and natural variability. The climate is always changing, so how can humans have a role in causing change? How do we reconcile and differentiate the anthropogenic effect from natural variability? This talk will offer several approaches that have been successful for the author. First, the context of climate change during the Pleistocene must be addressed. Second, is the role of the industrial revolution in significantly altering Pleistocene cycles, and introduction of the concept of the Anthropocene. Finally the positive feedbacks between climatic nudging due to increased insolation and greenhouse gas forcing can be likened to a rock rolling down a hill, without a leading cause. This approach has proven successful in presentations to undergraduates to state agencies.

Regional changes in extreme monsoon rainfall deficit and excess in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pal, Indrani; Al-Tabbaa, Abir

2010-04-01

With increasing concerns about climate change, the need to understand the nature and variability of monsoon climatic conditions and to evaluate possible future changes becomes increasingly important. This paper deals with the changes in frequency and magnitudes of extreme monsoon rainfall deficiency and excess in India from 1871 to 2005. Five regions across India comprising variable climates were selected for the study. Apart from changes in individual regions, changing tendencies in extreme monsoon rainfall deficit and excess were also determined for the Indian region as a whole. The trends and their significance were assessed using non-parametric Mann-Kendall technique. The results show that intra-region variability for extreme monsoon seasonal precipitation is large and mostly exhibited a negative tendency leading to increasing frequency and magnitude of monsoon rainfall deficit and decreasing frequency and magnitude of monsoon rainfall excess.

Influence of ECG sampling rate in fetal heart rate variability analysis.

PubMed

De Jonckheere, J; Garabedian, C; Charlier, P; Champion, C; Servan-Schreiber, E; Storme, L; Debarge, V; Jeanne, M; Logier, R

2017-07-01

Fetal hypoxia results in a fetal blood acidosis (pH<;7.10). In such a situation, the fetus develops several adaptation mechanisms regulated by the autonomic nervous system. Many studies demonstrated significant changes in heart rate variability in hypoxic fetuses. So, fetal heart rate variability analysis could be of precious help for fetal hypoxia prediction. Commonly used fetal heart rate variability analysis methods have been shown to be sensitive to the ECG signal sampling rate. Indeed, a low sampling rate could induce variability in the heart beat detection which will alter the heart rate variability estimation. In this paper, we introduce an original fetal heart rate variability analysis method. We hypothesize that this method will be less sensitive to ECG sampling frequency changes than common heart rate variability analysis methods. We then compared the results of this new heart rate variability analysis method with two different sampling frequencies (250-1000 Hz).

Change in the magnitude and mechanisms of global temperature variability with warming.

PubMed

Brown, Patrick T; Ming, Yi; Li, Wenhong; Hill, Spencer A

2017-01-01

Natural unforced variability in global mean surface air temperature (GMST) can mask or exaggerate human-caused global warming, and thus a complete understanding of this variability is highly desirable. Significant progress has been made in elucidating the magnitude and physical origins of present-day unforced GMST variability, but it has remained unclear how such variability may change as the climate warms. Here we present modeling evidence that indicates that the magnitude of low-frequency GMST variability is likely to decline in a warmer climate and that its generating mechanisms may be fundamentally altered. In particular, a warmer climate results in lower albedo at high latitudes, which yields a weaker albedo feedback on unforced GMST variability. These results imply that unforced GMST variability is dependent on the background climatological conditions, and thus climate model control simulations run under perpetual preindustrial conditions may have only limited relevance for understanding the unforced GMST variability of the future.

Change in the Magnitude and Mechanisms of Global Temperature Variability with Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, P. T.; Ming, Y.; Li, W.; Hill, S. A.

2017-12-01

Natural unforced variability in global mean surface air temperature (GMST) can mask or exaggerate human-caused global warming, and thus a complete understanding of this variability is highly desirable. Significant progress has been made in elucidating the magnitude and physical origins of present-day unforced GMST variability, but it has remained unclear how such variability may change as the climate warms. Here we present modeling evidence that indicates that the magnitude of low-frequency GMST variability is likely to decline in a warmer climate and that its generating mechanisms may be fundamentally altered. In particular, a warmer climate results in lower albedo at high latitudes, which yields a weaker albedo feedback on unforced GMST variability. These results imply that unforced GMST variability is dependent on the background climatological conditions, and thus climate model control simulations run under perpetual preindustrial conditions may have only limited relevance for understanding the unforced GMST variability of the future.

A Doubly Stochastic Change Point Detection Algorithm for Noisy Biological Signals.

PubMed

Gold, Nathan; Frasch, Martin G; Herry, Christophe L; Richardson, Bryan S; Wang, Xiaogang

2017-01-01

Experimentally and clinically collected time series data are often contaminated with significant confounding noise, creating short, noisy time series. This noise, due to natural variability and measurement error, poses a challenge to conventional change point detection methods. We propose a novel and robust statistical method for change point detection for noisy biological time sequences. Our method is a significant improvement over traditional change point detection methods, which only examine a potential anomaly at a single time point. In contrast, our method considers all suspected anomaly points and considers the joint probability distribution of the number of change points and the elapsed time between two consecutive anomalies. We validate our method with three simulated time series, a widely accepted benchmark data set, two geological time series, a data set of ECG recordings, and a physiological data set of heart rate variability measurements of fetal sheep model of human labor, comparing it to three existing methods. Our method demonstrates significantly improved performance over the existing point-wise detection methods.

The physical self in motion: within-person change and associations of change in self-esteem, physical self-concept, and physical activity in adolescent girls.

PubMed

Lindwall, Magnus; Asci, Hulya; Crocker, Peter

2014-12-01

The purpose of this study was to examine patterns of within-person change, and associations of change, in global self-esteem (GSE), physical self-perceptions (PSP), and physical activity in a sample of 705 Canadian adolescent girls over three measurements points and 24 months. The Physical Self-Perceptions Profile (PSPP) was used to measure GSE and PSP, and the Physical Activity Questionnaire for Adolescents (PAQ-A) was used to assess physical activity. Latent growth curve models were used to analyze the data. All PSP variables except for body attractiveness demonstrated significant average decline, but also significant was the change in between-person heterogeneity. Change in GSE and PSP was moderately to strongly related on a between-person level and weakly to moderately associated on a within-person level. Change in physical activity was related to change in the majority of the PSP variables but not to change in GSE.

Indian monsoon variability on millennial-orbital timescales.

PubMed

Kathayat, Gayatri; Cheng, Hai; Sinha, Ashish; Spötl, Christoph; Edwards, R Lawrence; Zhang, Haiwei; Li, Xianglei; Yi, Liang; Ning, Youfeng; Cai, Yanjun; Lui, Weiguo Lui; Breitenbach, Sebastian F M

2016-04-13

The Indian summer monsoon (ISM) monsoon is critical to billions of people living in the region. Yet, significant debates remain on primary ISM drivers on millennial-orbital timescales. Here, we use speleothem oxygen isotope (δ(18)O) data from Bittoo cave, Northern India to reconstruct ISM variability over the past 280,000 years. We find strong coherence between North Indian and Chinese speleothem δ(18)O records from the East Asian monsoon domain, suggesting that both Asian monsoon subsystems exhibit a coupled response to changes in Northern Hemisphere summer insolation (NHSI) without significant temporal lags, supporting the view that the tropical-subtropical monsoon variability is driven directly by precession-induced changes in NHSI. Comparisons of the North Indian record with both Antarctic ice core and sea-surface temperature records from the southern Indian Ocean over the last glacial period do not suggest a dominant role of Southern Hemisphere climate processes in regulating the ISM variability on millennial-orbital timescales.

Short-term variability in biomarkers of bone metabolism in sheep.

PubMed

Sousa, Cristina P; de Azevedo, Jorge T; Reis, Rui L; Gomes, Manuela E; Dias, Isabel R

2014-01-01

Changes in bone remodeling during pathological states and during their treatment can be assessed noninvasively by measuring biomarkers of bone metabolism. Their application is limited, however, by the potential biological variability in the levels of these biomarkers over time. To determine the short-term variability in biomarkers of bone metabolism in adult sheep, the authors measured serum levels of alkaline phosphatase (ALP), bone-specific alkaline phosphatase (BALP), osteocalcin (OC), N-terminal propeptide of type-III procollagen (PIIINP), deoxypyridinoline (DPD), tartrate-resistant acid phosphatase (TRAP), calcium and phosphorus intermittently over a 12-week period. There were significant differences in mean ALP activity and in phosphorus concentrations over time, but all other biomarkers showed no significant short-term variability. The results suggest that biomarkers of bone metabolism in sheep, especially the bone resorption marker DPD and the bone formation marker BALP, can be used reliably to detect changes in bone cellular activity.

Metabolic and respiratory derangements associated with death in cold-stunned Kemp's ridley turtles (Lepidochelys kempii): 32 cases (2005-2009).

PubMed

Keller, Krista A; Innis, Charles J; Tlusty, Michael F; Kennedy, Adam E; Bean, Sarah B; Cavin, Julie M; Merigo, Constance

2012-02-01

To assess selected clinicopathologic variables at hospital admission (day 1) for cold-stunned Kemp's ridley turtles (Lepidochelys kempii) that died during the first 3 days after admission (nonsurvivors) and turtles that survived (survivors) and to determine the percentage change of each variable from day 1 to day of death (nonsurvivors) or to day 2 or 3 of hospitalization (survivors). Retrospective case-control study. Animals-64 stranded, cold-stunned Kemp's ridley turtles hospitalized from October 2005 through December 2009. Blood gas, pH, Hct, and selected biochemical values in blood samples determined on day 1 and day of death (nonsurvivors; n = 32) or day 2 or 3 of hospitalization (survivors; 32) were obtained from medical records. For each variable, initial values and percentage changes (from initial values to values at the day of death or day 2 or 3 of hospitalization) were compared between survivors and nonsurvivors. Compared with blood analysis findings for survivors, nonsurvivors initially had significantly higher potassium concentration and Pco(2) and significantly lower Po(2), pH, and bicarbonate concentration than did survivors. For the first 2 or 3 days of hospitalization, percentage changes in potassium, lactate, and ionized calcium concentrations were significantly higher and percentage changes in pH and plasma glucose and bicarbonate concentrations were significantly lower in nonsurvivors. At hospital admission, cold-stunned Kemp's ridley turtles were affected by metabolic and respiratory derangements; severe derangements were associated with death. Evaluation of blood gas, pH, Hct, and selected clinicopathologic variables provided useful clinical and prognostic information during rehabilitation of cold-stunned Kemp's ridley turtles.

Temporal variability in chlorophyll fluorescence of back-reef corals in Ofu, American Samoa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Piniak, G.A.; Brown, E.K.

2009-01-01

Change in the yield of chlorophyll a fluorescence is a common indicator of thermal stress in corals. The present study reports temporal variability in quantum yield measurements for 10 coral species in Ofu, American Samoa - a place known to experience elevated and variable seawater temperatures. In winter, the zooxanthellae generally had higher dark-adapted maximum quantum yield (F v/Fm), higher light- adapted effective quantum yield (??F/F'm), and lower relative electron transport rates (rETR) than in the summer. Temporal changes appeared unrelated to the expected bleaching sensitivity of corals. All species surveyed, with the exception of Montipora grisea, demonstrated significant temporal changes in the three fluorescence parameters. Fluorescence responses were influenced by the microhabitat - temporal differences in fluorescence parameters were usually observed in the habitat with a more variable temperature regime (pool 300), while differences in Fv/Fm between species were observed only in the more environmentally stable habitat (pool 400). Such species-specific responses and microhabitat variability should be considered when attempting to determine whether observed in situ changes are normal seasonal changes or early signs of bleaching. ?? 2009 Marine Biological Laboratory.

Cross-conditional entropy and coherence analysis of pharmaco-EEG changes induced by alprazolam.

PubMed

Alonso, J F; Mañanas, M A; Romero, S; Rojas-Martínez, M; Riba, J

2012-06-01

Quantitative analysis of electroencephalographic signals (EEG) and their interpretation constitute a helpful tool in the assessment of the bioavailability of psychoactive drugs in the brain. Furthermore, psychotropic drug groups have typical signatures which relate biochemical mechanisms with specific EEG changes. To analyze the pharmacological effect of a dose of alprazolam on the connectivity of the brain during wakefulness by means of linear and nonlinear approaches. EEG signals were recorded after alprazolam administration in a placebo-controlled crossover clinical trial. Nonlinear couplings assessed by means of corrected cross-conditional entropy were compared to linear couplings measured with the classical magnitude squared coherence. Linear variables evidenced a statistically significant drug-induced decrease, whereas nonlinear variables showed significant increases. All changes were highly correlated to drug plasma concentrations. The spatial distribution of the observed connectivity changes clearly differed from a previous study: changes before and after the maximum drug effect were mainly observed over the anterior half of the scalp. Additionally, a new variable with very low computational cost was defined to evaluate nonlinear coupling. This is particularly interesting when all pairs of EEG channels are assessed as in this study. Results showed that alprazolam induced changes in terms of uncoupling between regions of the scalp, with opposite trends depending on the variables: decrease in linear ones and increase in nonlinear features. Maps provided consistent information about the way brain changed in terms of connectivity being definitely necessary to evaluate separately linear and nonlinear interactions.

An Integrated Hydro-Economic Model for Economy-Wide Climate Change Impact Assessment for Zambia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, T.; Thurlow, J.; Diao, X.

2008-12-01

Zambia is a landlocked country in Southern Africa, with a total population of about 11 million and a total area of about 752 thousand square kilometers. Agriculture in the country depends heavily on rainfall as the majority of cultivated land is rain-fed. Significant rainfall variability has been a huge challenge for the country to keep a sustainable agricultural growth, which is an important condition for the country to meet the United Nations Millennium Development Goals. The situation is expected to become even more complex as climate change would impose additional impacts on rainwater availability and crop water requirements, among other changes. To understand the impacts of climate variability and change on agricultural production and national economy, a soil hydrology model and a crop water production model are developed to simulate actual crop water uses and yield losses under water stress which provide annual shocks for a recursive dynamic computational general equilibrium (CGE) model developed for Zambia. Observed meteorological data of the past three decades are used in the integrated hydro-economic model for climate variability impact analysis, and as baseline climatology for climate change impact assessment together with several GCM-based climate change scenarios that cover a broad range of climate projections. We found that climate variability can explain a significant portion of the annual variations of agricultural production and GDP of Zambia in the past. Hidden beneath climate variability, climate change is found to have modest impacts on agriculture and national economy of Zambia around 2025 but the impacts would be pronounced in the far future if appropriate adaptations are not implemented. Policy recommendations are provided based on scenario analysis.

Variability of Neuronal Responses: Types and Functional Significance in Neuroplasticity and Neural Darwinism

PubMed Central

Chervyakov, Alexander V.; Sinitsyn, Dmitry O.; Piradov, Michael A.

2016-01-01

HIGHLIGHTS We suggest classifying variability of neuronal responses as follows: false (associated with a lack of knowledge about the influential factors), “genuine harmful” (noise), “genuine neutral” (synonyms, repeats), and “genuine useful” (the basis of neuroplasticity and learning).The genuine neutral variability is considered in terms of the phenomenon of degeneracy.Of particular importance is the genuine useful variability that is considered as a potential basis for neuroplasticity and learning. This type of variability is considered in terms of the neural Darwinism theory. In many cases, neural signals detected under the same external experimental conditions significantly change from trial to trial. The variability phenomenon, which complicates extraction of reproducible results and is ignored in many studies by averaging, has attracted attention of researchers in recent years. In this paper, we classify possible types of variability based on its functional significance and describe features of each type. We describe the key adaptive significance of variability at the neural network level and the degeneracy phenomenon that may be important for learning processes in connection with the principle of neuronal group selection. PMID:27932969

Variability of Neuronal Responses: Types and Functional Significance in Neuroplasticity and Neural Darwinism.

PubMed

Chervyakov, Alexander V; Sinitsyn, Dmitry O; Piradov, Michael A

2016-01-01

HIGHLIGHTS We suggest classifying variability of neuronal responses as follows: false (associated with a lack of knowledge about the influential factors), "genuine harmful" (noise), "genuine neutral" (synonyms, repeats), and "genuine useful" (the basis of neuroplasticity and learning).The genuine neutral variability is considered in terms of the phenomenon of degeneracy.Of particular importance is the genuine useful variability that is considered as a potential basis for neuroplasticity and learning. This type of variability is considered in terms of the neural Darwinism theory. In many cases, neural signals detected under the same external experimental conditions significantly change from trial to trial. The variability phenomenon, which complicates extraction of reproducible results and is ignored in many studies by averaging, has attracted attention of researchers in recent years. In this paper, we classify possible types of variability based on its functional significance and describe features of each type. We describe the key adaptive significance of variability at the neural network level and the degeneracy phenomenon that may be important for learning processes in connection with the principle of neuronal group selection.

Projected Changes in Mean and Interannual Variability of Surface Water over Continental China

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Leng, Guoyong; Tang, Qiuhong; Huang, Maoyi

Five General Circulation Model (GCM) climate projections under the RCP8.5 emission scenario were used to drive the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model to investigate the impacts of climate change on hydrologic cycle over continental China in the 21st century. The bias-corrected climatic variables were generated for the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5) by the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP). Results showed much larger fractional changes of annual mean Evaportranspiration (ET) per unit warming than the corresponding fractional changes of Precipitation (P) per unit warming across the country especially for South China,more » which led to notable decrease of surface water variability (P-E). Specifically, negative trends for annual mean runoff up to -0.33%/decade and soil moisture trends varying between -0.02 to -0.13%/decade were found for most river basins across China. Coincidentally, interannual variability for both runoff and soil moisture exhibited significant positive trends for almost all river basins across China, implying an increase in extremes relative to the mean conditions. Noticeably, the largest positive trends for runoff variability and soil moisture variability, which were up to 38 0.41%/decade and 0.90%/decade, both occurred in Southwest China. In addition to the regional contrast, intra-seasonal variation was also large for the runoff mean and runoff variability changes, but small for the soil moisture mean and variability changes. Our results suggest that future climate change could further exacerbate existing water-related risks (e.g. floods and droughts) across China as indicated by the marked decrease of surface water amounts combined with steady increase of interannual variability throughout the 21st century. This study highlights the regional contrast and intra-seasonal variations for the projected hydrologic changes and could provide muti-scale guidance for assessing effective adaptation strategies for the country on a river basin, regional, or as whole.« less

Effect of trotting speed on kinematic variables measured by use of extremity-mounted inertial measurement units in nonlame horses performing controlled treadmill exercise.

PubMed

Cruz, Antonio M; Vidondo, Beatriz; Ramseyer, Alessandra A; Maninchedda, Ugo E

2018-02-01

OBJECTIVE To assess effects of speed on kinematic variables measured by use of extremity-mounted inertial measurement units (IMUs) in nonlame horses performing controlled exercise on a treadmill. ANIMALS 10 nonlame horses. PROCEDURES 6 IMUs were attached at predetermined locations on 10 nonlame Franches Montagnes horses. Data were collected in triplicate during trotting at 3.33 and 3.88 m/s on a high-speed treadmill. Thirty-three selected kinematic variables were analyzed. Repeated-measures ANOVA was used to assess the effect of speed. RESULTS Significant differences between the 2 speeds were detected for most temporal (11/14) and spatial (12/19) variables. The observed spatial and temporal changes would translate into a gait for the higher speed characterized by increased stride length, protraction and retraction, flexion and extension, mediolateral movement of the tibia, and symmetry, but with similar temporal variables and a reduction in stride duration. However, even though the tibia coronal range of motion was significantly different between speeds, the high degree of variability raised concerns about whether these changes were clinically relevant. For some variables, the lower trotting speed apparently was associated with more variability than was the higher trotting speed. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE At a higher trotting speed, horses moved in the same manner (eg, the temporal events investigated occurred at the same relative time within the stride). However, from a spatial perspective, horses moved with greater action of the segments evaluated. The detected changes in kinematic variables indicated that trotting speed should be controlled or kept constant during gait evaluation.

Psychosocial predictors of four health-promoting behaviors for cancer prevention using the stage of change of Transtheoretical Model.

PubMed

Choi, Jean H; Chung, Kyong-Mee; Park, Keeho

2013-10-01

The present study aimed to examine whether demographic as well as psychosocial variables related to the five stages of change of the Transtheoretical Model can predict non-clinical adults' cancer preventive and health-promoting behaviors. This study specifically focused on cancer, one of the major chronic diseases, which is a serious threat of national health. A total of 1530 adults participated in the study and completed questionnaires. Collected data were analyzed by using multinominal logistic regression. The significant predictors of later stages varied among the types of health-promoting behaviors. Certain cancer preventive health-promoting behaviors such as well-balanced diet and exercise were significantly associated with psychosocial variables including cancer prevention-related self-efficacy, personality traits, psychosocial stress, and social support. On the other hand, smoking cessation and moderate or abstinence from drinking were more likely to be predicted by demographic variables including sex and age. The present study found that in addition to self-efficacy-a relatively well-studied psychological variable-other personality traits and psychological factors including introversion, neuroticism, psychosocial stress, and social support also significantly predicted later stages of change with respect to cancer preventive health-promoting behaviors. The implications of this study are also discussed. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Tree Density and Species Decline in the African Sahel Attributable to Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gonzalez, Patrick; Tucker, Compton J.; Sy, H.

2012-01-01

Increased aridity and human population have reduced tree cover in parts of the African Sahel and degraded resources for local people. Yet, tree cover trends and the relative importance of climate and population remain unresolved. From field measurements, aerial photos, and Ikonos satellite images, we detected significant 1954-2002 tree density declines in the western Sahel of 18 +/- 14% (P = 0.014, n = 204) and 17 +/- 13% (P = 0.0009, n = 187). From field observations, we detected a significant 1960-2000 species richness decline of 21 +/- 11% (P = 0.0028, n = 14) across the Sahel and a southward shift of the Sahel, Sudan, and Guinea zones. Multivariate analyses of climate, soil, and population showed that temperature most significantly (P < 0.001) explained tree cover changes. Multivariate and bivariate tests and field observations indicated the dominance of temperature and precipitation, supporting attribution of tree cover changes to climate variability. Climate change forcing of Sahel climate variability, particularly the significant (P < 0.05) 1901-2002 temperature increases and precipitation decreases in the research areas, connects Sahel tree cover changes to global climate change. This suggests roles for global action and local adaptation to address ecological change in the Sahel.

Do Running Kinematic Characteristics Change over a Typical HIIT for Endurance Runners?

PubMed

García-Pinillos, Felipe; Soto-Hermoso, Víctor M; Latorre-Román, Pedro Á

2016-10-01

García-Pinillos, F, Soto-Hermoso, VM, and Latorre-Román, PÁ. Do running kinematic characteristics change over a typical HIIT for endurance runners?. J Strength Cond Res 30(10): 2907-2917, 2016-The purpose of this study was to describe kinematic changes that occur during a common high-intensity intermittent training (HIIT) session for endurance runners. Twenty-eight male endurance runners participated in this study. A high-speed camera was used to measure sagittal-plane kinematics at the first and the last run during a HIIT (4 × 3 × 400 m). The dependent variables were spatial-temporal variables, joint angles during support and swing, and foot strike pattern. Physiological variables, rate of perceived exertion, and athletic performance were also recorded. No significant changes (p ≥ 0.05) in kinematic variables were found during the HIIT session. Two cluster analyses were performed, according to the average running pace-faster vs. slower, and according to exhaustion level reached-exhausted group vs. nonexhausted group (NEG). At first run, no significant differences were found between groups. As for the changes induced by the running protocol, significant differences (p ≤ 0.05) were found between faster and slower athletes at toe-off in θhip and θknee, whereas some changes were found in NEG in θhip during toe-off (+4.3°) and θknee at toe-off (-5.2°) during swing. The results show that a common HIIT session for endurance runners did not consistently or substantially perturb the running kinematics of trained male runners. Additionally, although some differences between groups have been found, neither athletic performance nor exhaustion level reached seems to be determinant in the kinematic response during a HIIT, at least for this group of moderately trained endurance runners.

Climate change and the impact of increased rainfall variability on sediment transport and catchment scale water quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hancock, G. R.; Willgoose, G. R.; Cohen, S.

2009-12-01

Recently there has been recognition that changing climate will affect rainfall and storm patterns with research directed to examine how the global hydrological cycle will respond to climate change. This study investigates the effect of different rainfall patterns on erosion and resultant water quality for a well studied tropical monsoonal catchment that is undisturbed by Europeans in the Northern Territory, Australia. Water quality has a large affect on a range of aquatic flora and fauna and a significant change in sediment could have impacts on the aquatic ecosystems. There have been several studies of the effect of climate change on rainfall patterns in the study area with projections indicating a significant increase in storm activity. Therefore it is important that the impact of this variability be assessed in terms of catchment hydrology, sediment transport and water quality. Here a numerical model of erosion and hydrology (CAESAR) is used to assess several different rainfall scenarios over a 1000 year modelled period. The results show that that increased rainfall amount and intensity increases sediment transport rates but predicted water quality was variable and non-linear but within the range of measured field data for the catchment and region. Therefore an assessment of sediment transport and water quality is a significant and complex issue that requires further understandings of the role of biophysical feedbacks such as vegetation as well as the role of humans in managing landscapes (i.e. controlled and uncontrolled fire). The study provides a robust methodology for assessing the impact of enhanced climate variability on sediment transport and water quality.

Relative importance of climate changes at different time scales on net primary productivity-a case study of the Karst area of northwest Guangxi, China.

PubMed

Liu, Huiyu; Zhang, Mingyang; Lin, Zhenshan

2017-10-05

Climate changes are considered to significantly impact net primary productivity (NPP). However, there are few studies on how climate changes at multiple time scales impact NPP. With MODIS NPP product and station-based observations of sunshine duration, annual average temperature and annual precipitation, impacts of climate changes at different time scales on annual NPP, have been studied with EEMD (ensemble empirical mode decomposition) method in the Karst area of northwest Guangxi, China, during 2000-2013. Moreover, with partial least squares regression (PLSR) model, the relative importance of climatic variables for annual NPP has been explored. The results show that (1) only at quasi 3-year time scale do sunshine duration and temperature have significantly positive relations with NPP. (2) Annual precipitation has no significant relation to NPP by direct comparison, but significantly positive relation at 5-year time scale, which is because 5-year time scale is not the dominant scale of precipitation; (3) the changes of NPP may be dominated by inter-annual variabilities. (4) Multiple time scales analysis will greatly improve the performance of PLSR model for estimating NPP. The variable importance in projection (VIP) scores of sunshine duration and temperature at quasi 3-year time scale, and precipitation at quasi 5-year time scale are greater than 0.8, indicating important for NPP during 2000-2013. However, sunshine duration and temperature at quasi 3-year time scale are much more important. Our results underscore the importance of multiple time scales analysis for revealing the relations of NPP to changing climate.

Latent change models of adult cognition: are changes in processing speed and working memory associated with changes in episodic memory?

PubMed

Hertzog, Christopher; Dixon, Roger A; Hultsch, David F; MacDonald, Stuart W S

2003-12-01

The authors used 6-year longitudinal data from the Victoria Longitudinal Study (VLS) to investigate individual differences in amount of episodic memory change. Latent change models revealed reliable individual differences in cognitive change. Changes in episodic memory were significantly correlated with changes in other cognitive variables, including speed and working memory. A structural equation model for the latent change scores showed that changes in speed and working memory predicted changes in episodic memory, as expected by processing resource theory. However, these effects were best modeled as being mediated by changes in induction and fact retrieval. Dissociations were detected between cross-sectional ability correlations and longitudinal changes. Shuffling the tasks used to define the Working Memory latent variable altered patterns of change correlations.

The effect of virtual reality on gait variability.

PubMed

Katsavelis, Dimitrios; Mukherjee, Mukul; Decker, Leslie; Stergiou, Nicholas

2010-07-01

Optic Flow (OF) plays an important role in human locomotion and manipulation of OF characteristics can cause changes in locomotion patterns. The purpose of the study was to investigate the effect of the velocity of optic flow on the amount and structure of gait variability. Each subject underwent four conditions of treadmill walking at their self-selected pace. In three conditions the subjects walked in an endless virtual corridor, while a fourth control condition was also included. The three virtual conditions differed in the speed of the optic flow displayed as follows--same speed (OFn), faster (OFf), and slower (OFs) than that of the treadmill. Gait kinematics were tracked with an optical motion capture system. Gait variability measures of the hip, knee and ankle range of motion and stride interval were analyzed. Amount of variability was evaluated with linear measures of variability--coefficient of variation, while structure of variability i.e., its organization over time, were measured with nonlinear measures--approximate entropy and detrended fluctuation analysis. The linear measures of variability, CV, did not show significant differences between Non-VR and VR conditions while nonlinear measures of variability identified significant differences at the hip, ankle, and in stride interval. In response to manipulation of the optic flow, significant differences were observed between the three virtual conditions in the following order: OFn greater than OFf greater than OFs. Measures of structure of variability are more sensitive to changes in gait due to manipulation of visual cues, whereas measures of the amount of variability may be concealed by adaptive mechanisms. Visual cues increase the complexity of gait variability and may increase the degrees of freedom available to the subject. Further exploration of the effects of optic flow manipulation on locomotion may provide us with an effective tool for rehabilitation of subjects with sensorimotor issues.

Identification of formulation and manufacturing variables that influence in vitro dissolution and in vivo bioavailability of propranolol hydrochloride tablets.

PubMed

Eddington, N D; Ashraf, M; Augsburger, L L; Leslie, J L; Fossler, M J; Lesko, L J; Shah, V P; Rekhi, G S

1998-11-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of formulation and processing changes on the dissolution and bioavailability of propranolol hydrochloride tablets. Directly compressed blends of 6 kg (20,000 units) were prepared by mixing in a 16-qt V blender and tablets were compressed on an instrumented Manesty D3B tablet press. A half-factorial (2(5-1), Resolution V) design was used to study the following variables: filler ratio (lactose/dicalcium phosphate), sodium starch glycolate level, magnesium stearate level, lubricant blend time, and compression force. The levels and ranges of the excipients and processing changes studied represented level 2 or greater changes as indicated by the Scale-up and Post Approval Changes (SUPAC-IR) Guidance. Changes in filler ratio, disintegrant level, and compression force were significant in affecting percent drug released (Q) in 5 min (Q5) and Q10. However, changes in magnesium stearate level and lubricant blend time did not influence Q5 and Q10. Hardness was found to be affected by changes in all of the variables studied. Some interaction effects between the variables studied were also found to be significant. To examine the impact of formulation and processing variables on in vivo absorption, three batches were selected for a bioavailability study based on their dissolution profiles. Thirteen subjects received four propranolol treatments (slow-, medium-, and fast-dissolving formulations and Inderal 80 mg) separated by 1 week washout according to a randomized crossover design. The formulations were found to be bioequivalent with respect to the log Cmax and log AUC0-infinity. The results of this study suggest that (i) bioavailability/bioequivalency studies may not be necessary for propranolol and perhaps other class 1 drugs after level 2 type changes, and (ii) in vitro dissolution tests may be used to show bioequivalence of propranolol formulations with processing or formulation changes within the specified level 2 ranges examined.

Divergent phenological response to hydroclimate variability in forested mountain watersheds

Treesearch

Taehee Hwang; Lawrence E. Band; Chelcy F. Miniat; Conghe Song; Paul V . Bolstad; James M. Vose; Jason P. Love

2014-01-01

Mountain watersheds are primary sources of freshwater, carbon sequestration, and other ecosystem services. There is significant interest in the effects of climate change and variability on these processes over short to long time scales. Much of the impact of hydroclimate variability in forest ecosystems is manifested in vegetation dynamics in space and time. In steep...

Variability in baseline travel behaviour as a predictor of changes in commuting by active travel, car and public transport: a natural experimental study

PubMed Central

Heinen, Eva; Ogilvie, David

2016-01-01

Purpose To strengthen our understanding of the impact of baseline variability in mode choice on the likelihood of travel behaviour change. Methods Quasi-experimental analyses in a cohort study of 450 commuters exposed to a new guided busway with a path for walking and cycling in Cambridge, UK. Exposure to the intervention was defined using the shortest network distance from each participant’s home to the busway. Variability in commuter travel behaviour at baseline was defined using the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index, the number of different modes of transport used over a week, and the proportion of trips made by the main (combination of) mode(s). The outcomes were changes in the share of commute trips (i) involving any active travel, (ii) involving any public transport, and (iii) made entirely by car. Variability and change data were derived from a self-reported seven-day record collected before (2009) and after (2012) the intervention. Separate multinomial regression models were estimated to assess the influence of baseline variability on behaviour change, both independently and as an interaction effect with exposure to the intervention. Results All three measures of variability predicted changes in mode share in most models. The effect size for the intervention was slightly strengthened after including variability. Commuters with higher baseline variability were more likely to increase their active mode share (e.g. for HHI: relative risk ratio [RRR] for interaction 3.34, 95% CI 1.41, 7.89) and decrease their car mode share in response to the intervention (e.g. for HHI: RRR 7.50, 95% CI 2.52, 22.34). Conclusions People reporting a higher level of variability in mode choice were more likely to change their travel behaviour following an intervention. Future research should consider such variability as a potential predictor and effect modifier of travel and physical activity behaviour change, and its significance for the design and targeting of interventions. PMID:27200265

High Resolution ECG for Evaluation of QT Interval Variability during Exposure to Acute Hypoxia

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zupet, P.; Finderle, Z.; Schlegel, Todd T.; Starc, V.

2010-01-01

Ventricular repolarization instability as quantified by the index of QT interval variability (QTVI) is one of the best predictors for risk of malignant ventricular arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death. Because it is difficult to appropriately monitor early signs of organ dysfunction at high altitude, we investigated whether high resolution advanced ECG (HR-ECG) analysis might be helpful as a non-invasive and easy-to-use tool for evaluating the risk of cardiac arrhythmias during exposure to acute hypoxia. 19 non-acclimatized healthy trained alpinists (age 37, 8 plus or minus 4,7 years) participated in the study. Five-minute high-resolution 12-lead electrocardiograms (ECGs) were recorded (Cardiosoft) in each subject at rest in the supine position breathing room air and then after breathing 12.5% oxygen for 30 min. For beat-to-beat RR and QT variability, the program of Starc was utilized to derive standard time domain measures such as root mean square of the successive interval difference (rMSSD) of RRV and QTV, the corrected QT interval (QTc) and the QTVI in lead II. Changes were evaluated with paired-samples t-test with p-values less than 0.05 considered statistically significant. As expected, the RR interval and its variability both decreased with increasing altitude, with p = 0.000 and p = 0.005, respectively. Significant increases were found in both the rMSSDQT and the QTVI in lead II, with p = 0.002 and p = 0.003, respectively. There was no change in QTc interval length (p = non significant). QT variability parameters may be useful for evaluating changes in ventricular repolarization caused by hypoxia. These changes might be driven by increases in sympathetic nervous system activity at ventricular level.

Emergence of new hydrologic regimes of surface water resources in the conterminous United States under future warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Maoyi; Voisin, Nathalie; Zhang, Xuesong; Asrar, Ghassem R.; Leung, L. Ruby

2016-11-01

Despite the importance of surface water to people and ecosystems, few studies have explored detectable changes in surface water supply in a changing climate, given its large natural variability. Here we analyze runoff projections from the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrological model driven by 97 downscaled and bias-corrected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate projections over the conterminous United States (CONUS). Our results show that more than 40% of the CONUS land area will experience significant changes in the probability distribution functions (i.e. PDFs) of summer and winter runoff by the end of the 21st century, which may pose great challenges to future surface water supply. Sub-basin mean runoff PDFs are projected to change significantly after 2040s depending on the emission scenarios, with earliest occurrence in the Pacific Northwest and northern California regions. When examining the response as a function of changes in the global mean temperature (ΔGMT), a linear relationship is revealed at the 95% confidence level. Generally, 1 °C increase of GMT leads to 11% and 17% more lands experiencing changes in summer and winter runoff PDFs, respectively. Such changes in land fraction scale with ΔGMT at the country scale independent of emission scenarios, but the same relationship does not necessarily hold at sub-basin scales, due to the larger role of atmospheric circulation changes and their uncertainties on regional precipitation. Further analyses show that the emergence of significant changes in sub-basin runoff PDFs is indicative of the emergence of new hydrology regimes and it is dominated by the changes in variability rather than shift in the mean, regardless of the emission scenarios.

Decadal trend of precipitation and temperature patterns and impacts on snow-related variables in a semiarid region, Sierra Nevada, Spain.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

José Pérez-Palazón, María; Pimentel, Rafael; Herrero, Javier; José Polo, María

2016-04-01

In the current context of global change, mountainous areas constitute singular locations in which these changes can be traced. Early detection of significant shifts of snow state variables in semiarid regions can help assess climate variability impacts and future snow dynamics in northern latitudes. The Sierra Nevada mountain range, in southern Spain, is a representative example of snow areas in Mediterranean-climate regions and both monitoring and modelling efforts have been performed to assess this variability and its significant scales. This work presents a decadal trend analysis throughout the 50-yr period 1960-2010 performed on some snow-related variables over Sierra Nevada, in Spain, which is included in the global climate change observatories network around the world. The study area comprises 4583 km2 distributed throughout the five head basins influenced by these mountains, with altitude values ranging from 140 to 3479 m.a.s.l., just 40 km from the Mediterranean coastline. Meteorological variables obtained from 44 weather stations from the National Meteorological Agency were studied and further used as input to the distributed hydrological model WiMMed (Polo et al., 2010), operational at the study area, to obtain selected snow variables. Decadal trends were obtained, together with their statistical significance, over the following variables, averaged over the whole study area: (1) annual precipitation; (2) annual snowfall; annual (3) mean, (4) maximum and (5) minimum daily temperature; annual (6) mean and (7) maximum daily fraction of snow covered areas; (8) annual number of days with snow cover; (9) mean and (10) maximum daily snow water equivalent; (11) annual number of extreme precipitation events; and (12) mean intensity of the annual extreme precipitation events. These variables were also studied over each of the five regions associated to each basin in the range. Globally decreasing decadal trends were obtained for all the meteorological variables, with the exception of the average annual mean and maximum daily temperature. In the case of the snow-related variables, no significant trends are observed at this time scale; nonetheless, a global decreasing rate is predominant in most of the variables. The torrential events are more frequent in the last decades of the study period, with an apparently increasing associated dispersion. This study constitutes a first sound analysis of the long-term observed trends of the snow regime in this area under the context of increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation regimes. The results highlight the complexity of non-linearity in environmental processes in Mediterranean regions, and point out to a significant shift in the precipitation and temperature regime, and thus on the snow-affected hydrological variables in the study area.

The process of cognitive behaviour therapy for chronic fatigue syndrome: which changes in perpetuating cognitions and behaviour are related to a reduction in fatigue?

PubMed

Heins, Marianne J; Knoop, Hans; Burk, William J; Bleijenberg, Gijs

2013-09-01

Cognitive behaviour therapy (CBT) can significantly reduce fatigue in chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS), but little is known about the process of change taking place during CBT. Based on a recent treatment model (Wiborg et al. J Psych Res 2012), we examined how (changes in) cognitions and behaviour are related to the decrease in fatigue. We included 183 patients meeting the US Centers for Disease Control criteria for CFS, aged 18 to 65 years, starting CBT. We measured fatigue and possible process variables before treatment; after 6, 12 and 18 weeks; and after treatment. Possible process variables were sense of control over fatigue, focusing on symptoms, self-reported physical functioning, perceived physical activity and objective (actigraphic) physical activity. We built multiple regression models, explaining levels of fatigue during therapy by (changes in) proposed process variables. We observed large individual variation in the patterns of change in fatigue and process variables during CBT for CFS. Increases in the sense of control over fatigue, perceived activity and self-reported physical functioning, and decreases in focusing on symptoms explained 20 to 46% of the variance in fatigue. An increase in objective activity was not a process variable. A change in cognitive factors seems to be related to the decrease in fatigue during CBT for CFS. The pattern of change varies considerably between patients, but changes in process variables and fatigue occur mostly in the same period. © 2013.

Spatiotemporal patterns of evapotranspiration along the North American east coast as influenced by multiple environmental changes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Qichun; Tian, Hanqin; Li, Xia

The North American east coast has experienced significant land-use and climate changes since the beginning of the 20th century. In this study, using the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model 2.0 driven by time-series input data of land use, climate and atmospheric CO 2, we examined how these driving forces have affected the spatiotemporal trends and variability of evapotranspiration (ET) in this region during 1901–2008. Annual ET in the North American east coast during this period was 648.3 ± 38.6 mm/year and demonstrated an increasing trend. Factorial model simulations indicated that climate variability explained 76% of the inter-annual ET variability. Although land-usemore » change only explained 16% of the ET temporal variability, afforestation induced the upward trend of ET and increased annual ET by 12.8 mm/year. Elevated atmospheric CO 2 reduced annual ET by 0.84 mm, and its potential impacts under future atmospheric CO 2 levels could be much larger than estimates for the historical 1901–2008 period. Climate change determined the spatial pattern of ET changes across the entire study area, whereas land-use changes dramatically affected ET in watersheds with significant land conversions. In spite of the multiple benefits from afforestation, its impacts on water resources should be considered in future land-use policy making. As a result, elevated ET may also affect fresh water availability for the increasing social and economic water demands.« less

Spatiotemporal patterns of evapotranspiration along the North American east coast as influenced by multiple environmental changes

DOE PAGES

Yang, Qichun; Tian, Hanqin; Li, Xia; ...

2014-08-08

The North American east coast has experienced significant land-use and climate changes since the beginning of the 20th century. In this study, using the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model 2.0 driven by time-series input data of land use, climate and atmospheric CO 2, we examined how these driving forces have affected the spatiotemporal trends and variability of evapotranspiration (ET) in this region during 1901–2008. Annual ET in the North American east coast during this period was 648.3 ± 38.6 mm/year and demonstrated an increasing trend. Factorial model simulations indicated that climate variability explained 76% of the inter-annual ET variability. Although land-usemore » change only explained 16% of the ET temporal variability, afforestation induced the upward trend of ET and increased annual ET by 12.8 mm/year. Elevated atmospheric CO 2 reduced annual ET by 0.84 mm, and its potential impacts under future atmospheric CO 2 levels could be much larger than estimates for the historical 1901–2008 period. Climate change determined the spatial pattern of ET changes across the entire study area, whereas land-use changes dramatically affected ET in watersheds with significant land conversions. In spite of the multiple benefits from afforestation, its impacts on water resources should be considered in future land-use policy making. As a result, elevated ET may also affect fresh water availability for the increasing social and economic water demands.« less

Emergence of new hydrologic regimes of surface water resources in the conterminous United States under future warming

DOE PAGES

Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Maoyi; Voisin, Nathalie; ...

2016-10-25

Emergence of significant changes in surface water PDF is detected across CONUS. Such emergence can be derived using global temperature increments at the national scale independent of emission scenarios but the relationship does not hold at sub-basin scale. The emergence of significant changes are due to changes in interannual variability rather than seasonal mean.

Recent changes and drivers of the atmospheric evaporative demand in the Canary Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M.; Azorin-Molina, Cesar; Sanchez-Lorenzo, Arturo; El Kenawy, Ahmed; Martín-Hernández, Natalia; Peña-Gallardo, Marina; Beguería, Santiago; Tomas-Burguera, Miquel

2016-08-01

We analysed recent evolution and meteorological drivers of the atmospheric evaporative demand (AED) in the Canary Islands for the period 1961-2013. We employed long and high-quality time series of meteorological variables to analyse current AED changes in this region and found that AED has increased during the investigated period. Overall, the annual ETo, which was estimated by means of the FAO-56 Penman-Monteith equation, increased significantly by 18.2 mm decade-1 on average, with a stronger trend in summer (6.7 mm decade-1). In this study we analysed the contribution of (i) the aerodynamic (related to the water vapour that a parcel of air can store) and (ii) radiative (related to the available energy to evaporate a quantity of water) components to the decadal variability and trends of ETo. More than 90 % of the observed ETo variability at the seasonal and annual scales can be associated with the variability in the aerodynamic component. The variable that recorded more significant changes in the Canary Islands was relative humidity, and among the different meteorological factors used to calculate ETo, relative humidity was the main driver of the observed ETo trends. The observed trend could have negative consequences in a number of water-depending sectors if it continues in the future.

Yearly fluctuations of flower landscape in a Mediterranean scrubland: Consequences for floral resource availability.

PubMed

Flo, Víctor; Bosch, Jordi; Arnan, Xavier; Primante, Clara; Martín González, Ana M; Barril-Graells, Helena; Rodrigo, Anselm

2018-01-01

Species flower production and flowering phenology vary from year to year due to extrinsic factors. Inter-annual variability in flowering patterns may have important consequences for attractiveness to pollinators, and ultimately, plant reproductive output. To understand the consequences of flowering pattern variability, a community approach is necessary because pollinator flower choice is highly dependent on flower context. Our objectives were: 1) To quantify yearly variability in flower density and phenology; 2) To evaluate whether changes in flowering patterns result in significant changes in pollen/nectar composition. We monitored weekly flowering patterns in a Mediterranean scrubland community (23 species) over 8 years. Floral resource availability was estimated based on field measures of pollen and nectar production per flower. We analysed inter-annual variation in flowering phenology (duration and date of peak bloom) and flower production, and inter-annual and monthly variability in flower, pollen and nectar species composition. We also investigated potential phylogenetic effects on inter-annual variability of flowering patterns. We found dramatic variation in yearly flower production both at the species and community levels. There was also substantial variation in flowering phenology. Importantly, yearly fluctuations were far from synchronous across species, and resulted in significant changes in floral resources availability and composition at the community level. Changes were especially pronounced late in the season, at a time when flowers are scarce and pollinator visitation rates are particularly high. We discuss the consequences of our findings for pollinator visitation and plant reproductive success in the current scenario of climate change.

Yearly fluctuations of flower landscape in a Mediterranean scrubland: Consequences for floral resource availability

PubMed Central

Primante, Clara; Martín González, Ana M.; Barril-Graells, Helena

2018-01-01

Species flower production and flowering phenology vary from year to year due to extrinsic factors. Inter-annual variability in flowering patterns may have important consequences for attractiveness to pollinators, and ultimately, plant reproductive output. To understand the consequences of flowering pattern variability, a community approach is necessary because pollinator flower choice is highly dependent on flower context. Our objectives were: 1) To quantify yearly variability in flower density and phenology; 2) To evaluate whether changes in flowering patterns result in significant changes in pollen/nectar composition. We monitored weekly flowering patterns in a Mediterranean scrubland community (23 species) over 8 years. Floral resource availability was estimated based on field measures of pollen and nectar production per flower. We analysed inter-annual variation in flowering phenology (duration and date of peak bloom) and flower production, and inter-annual and monthly variability in flower, pollen and nectar species composition. We also investigated potential phylogenetic effects on inter-annual variability of flowering patterns. We found dramatic variation in yearly flower production both at the species and community levels. There was also substantial variation in flowering phenology. Importantly, yearly fluctuations were far from synchronous across species, and resulted in significant changes in floral resources availability and composition at the community level. Changes were especially pronounced late in the season, at a time when flowers are scarce and pollinator visitation rates are particularly high. We discuss the consequences of our findings for pollinator visitation and plant reproductive success in the current scenario of climate change. PMID:29346453

Autonomic function responses to training: Correlation with body composition changes.

PubMed

Tian, Ye; Huang, Chuanye; He, Zihong; Hong, Ping; Zhao, Jiexiu

2015-11-01

The causal relation between autonomic function and adiposity is an unresolved issue. Thus, we studied whether resting heart rate variability (HRV) changes could be used to predict changes in body composition after 16 weeks of individualized exercise training. A total of 117 sedentary overweight/obese adults volunteered to join an intervention group (IN, n=82) or a control group (CON, n=35). The intervention group trained for 30-40 min three times a week with an intensity of 85-100% of individual ventilatory threshold (Thvent). At baseline and after a 16-week training period, resting HRV variables, body composition and peak oxygen uptake (VO2peak) were assessed. Compared with CON, exercise training significantly improved HRV and body composition and increased VO2peak (P<0.05). Significant correlations were observed between changes of HRV variables and body composition indices and VO2peak (P<0.05). Greater individual changes in HRV in response to exercise training were observed for those with greater total and central fat loss. Individual aerobic-based exercise training was for improving autonomic function and resting HRV responses to aerobic training is a potential indicator for adaptations to exercise training. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc.

The role of urgency in maladaptive behaviors.

PubMed

Anestis, Michael D; Selby, Edward A; Joiner, Thomas E

2007-12-01

Prior work on maladaptive behaviors has cited impulsivity as a risk factor. The concept of impulsivity, however, fails to address the potential role of negative affect in such behaviors. The UPPS Impulsive Behavior Scale addresses this weakness by dividing impulsivity into four subscales: Urgency, Sensation Seeking, (lack of) Premeditation, and (lack of) Perseverance. We predicted that urgency, defined as the tendency, specifically in the face of negative affect, to act quickly and without planning, would predict elevations on three maladaptive behaviors--excessive reassurance seeking, drinking to cope, and bulimic symptoms as measured by the Eating Disorder Inventory--in both cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses in an undergraduate sample (N=70). Participants were assessed at two time points, 3-4 weeks apart. Urgency significantly predicted all three outcome variables cross-sectionally at both Time 1 and Time 2. Time 1 urgency significantly predicted Time 2 excessive reassurance seeking. Changes in urgency from Time 1 to Time 2 predicted changes in all three outcome variables. Results indicate a clear cross-sectional relationship between urgency and certain maladaptive behaviors. Additionally, some form of longitudinal relationship may exist between these variables, although the use of residual change scores precluded distinction between true change and change due to error.

Changes in Financial Practices: Southeast Asian Refugees.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnson, Phyllis J.

1989-01-01

Presents research on changes over a two-year period in the use of new, Western financial practices by Southeast Asian refugees and in variables affecting those changes. Significant interaction effects showed that increased use of new practices was affected by age, education, work experience, and changes in English ability. (JOW)

Cervical vertebral bone mineral density changes in adolescents during orthodontic treatment.

PubMed

Crawford, Bethany; Kim, Do-Gyoon; Moon, Eun-Sang; Johnson, Elizabeth; Fields, Henry W; Palomo, J Martin; Johnston, William M

2014-08-01

The cervical vertebral maturation (CVM) stages have been used to estimate facial growth status. In this study, we examined whether cone-beam computed tomography images can be used to detect changes of CVM-related parameters and bone mineral density distribution in adolescents during orthodontic treatment. Eighty-two cone-beam computed tomography images were obtained from 41 patients before (14.47 ± 1.42 years) and after (16.15 ± 1.38 years) orthodontic treatment. Two cervical vertebral bodies (C2 and C3) were digitally isolated from each image, and their volumes, means, and standard deviations of gray-level histograms were measured. The CVM stages and mandibular lengths were also estimated after converting the cone-beam computed tomography images. Significant changes for the examined variables were detected during the observation period (P ≤0.018) except for C3 vertebral body volume (P = 0.210). The changes of CVM stage had significant positive correlations with those of vertebral body volume (P ≤0.021). The change of the standard deviation of bone mineral density (variability) showed significant correlations with those of vertebral body volume and mandibular length for C2 (P ≤0.029). The means and variability of the gray levels account for bone mineral density and active remodeling, respectively. Our results indicate that bone mineral density distribution and the volume of the cervical vertebral body changed because of active bone remodeling during maturation. Copyright © 2014 American Association of Orthodontists. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Temporal and spatial changes of rainfall and streamflow in the Upper Tekezē-Atbara river basin, Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gebremicael, Tesfay G.; Mohamed, Yasir A.; Zaag, Pieter v.; Hagos, Eyasu Y.

2017-04-01

The Upper Tekezē-Atbara river sub-basin, part of the Nile Basin, is characterized by high temporal and spatial variability of rainfall and streamflow. In spite of its importance for sustainable water use and food security, the changing patterns of streamflow and its association with climate change is not well understood. This study aims to improve the understanding of the linkages between rainfall and streamflow trends and identify possible drivers of streamflow variabilities in the basin. Trend analyses and change-point detections of rainfall and streamflow were analysed using Mann-Kendall and Pettitt tests, respectively, using data records for 21 rainfall and 9 streamflow stations. The nature of changes and linkages between rainfall and streamflow were carefully examined for monthly, seasonal and annual flows, as well as indicators of hydrologic alteration (IHA). The trend and change-point analyses found that 19 of the tested 21 rainfall stations did not show statistically significant changes. In contrast, trend analyses on the streamflow showed both significant increasing and decreasing patterns. A decreasing trend in the dry season (October to February), short season (March to May), main rainy season (June to September) and annual totals is dominant in six out of the nine stations. Only one out of nine gauging stations experienced significant increasing flow in the dry and short rainy seasons, attributed to the construction of Tekezē hydropower dam upstream this station in 2009. Overall, streamflow trends and change-point timings were found to be inconsistent among the stations. Changes in streamflow without significant change in rainfall suggests factors other than rainfall drive the change. Most likely the observed changes in streamflow regimes could be due to changes in catchment characteristics of the basin. Further studies are needed to verify and quantify the hydrological changes shown in statistical tests by identifying the physical mechanisms behind those changes. The findings from this study are useful as a prerequisite for studying the effects of catchment management dynamics on the hydrological variabilities in the basin.

Factors affecting temporal variability of arsenic in groundwater used for drinking water supply in the United States.

PubMed

Ayotte, Joseph D; Belaval, Marcel; Olson, Scott A; Burow, Karen R; Flanagan, Sarah M; Hinkle, Stephen R; Lindsey, Bruce D

2015-02-01

The occurrence of arsenic in groundwater is a recognized environmental hazard with worldwide importance and much effort has been focused on surveying and predicting where arsenic occurs. Temporal variability is one aspect of this environmental hazard that has until recently received less attention than other aspects. For this study, we analyzed 1245 wells with two samples per well. We suggest that temporal variability, often reported as affecting very few wells, is perhaps a larger issue than it appears and has been overshadowed by datasets with large numbers of non-detect data. Although there was only a slight difference in arsenic concentration variability among samples from public and private wells (p=0.0452), the range of variability was larger for public than for private wells. Further, we relate the variability we see to geochemical factors-primarily variability in redox-but also variability in major-ion chemistry. We also show that in New England there is a weak but statistically significant indication that seasonality may have an effect on concentrations, whereby concentrations in the first two quarters of the year (January-June) are significantly lower than in the second two quarters (July-December) (p<0.0001). In the Central Valley of California, the relation of arsenic concentration to season was not statistically significant (p=0.4169). In New England, these changes appear to follow groundwater levels. It is possible that this difference in arsenic concentrations is related to groundwater level changes, pumping stresses, evapotranspiration effects, or perhaps mixing of more oxidizing, lower pH recharge water in wetter months. Focusing on the understanding the geochemical conditions in aquifers where arsenic concentrations are concerns and causes of geochemical changes in the groundwater environment may lead to a better understanding of where and by how much arsenic will vary over time. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Factors affecting temporal variability of arsenic in groundwater used for drinking water supply in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ayotte, Joseph D.; Belaval, Marcel; Olson, Scott A.; Burow, Karen R.; Flanagan, Sarah M.; Hinkle, Stephen R.; Lindsey, Bruce D.

2014-01-01

The occurrence of arsenic in groundwater is a recognized environmental hazard with worldwide importance and much effort has been focused on surveying and predicting where arsenic occurs. Temporal variability is one aspect of this environmental hazard that has until recently received less attention than other aspects. For this study, we analyzed 1245 wells with two samples per well. We suggest that temporal variability, often reported as affecting very few wells, is perhaps a larger issue than it appears and has been masked by datasets with large numbers of non-detect data. Although there was only a slight difference in arsenic concentration variability among samples from public and private wells (p = 0.0452), the range of variability was larger for public than for private wells. Further, we relate the variability we see to geochemical factors—primarily variability in redox—but also variability in pH and major-ion chemistry. We also show that in New England there is a weak but statistically significant indication that seasonality may have an effect on concentrations, whereby concentrations in the first two quarters of the year (January–June) are significantly lower than in the second two quarters (July–December) (p < 0.0001). In the Central Valley of California, though not statistically significant (p = 0.4169), arsenic concentration is lower in the first quarter of the year but increases in subsequent quarters. In both regions, these changes appear to follow groundwater levels. It is possible that this difference in arsenic concentrations is related to groundwater level changes, pumping stresses, evapotranspiration effects, or perhaps mixing of more oxidizing, lower pH recharge water in wetter months. Focusing on the understanding the geochemical conditions in aquifers where arsenic concentrations are concerns and causes of geochemical changes in the groundwater environment may lead to a better understanding of where and by how much arsenic will vary over time.

A prospective study on the effects on hemostasis of two oral contraceptives containing drospirenone in combination with either 30 or 20 microg ethinyl estradiol and a reference containing desogestrel and 30 microg ethinyl estradiol.

PubMed

Kluft, Cornelis; Endrikat, Jan; Mulder, Simone M; Gerlinger, Christoph; Heithecker, Renate

2006-04-01

In this open-label, randomized study, we assessed the effects on hemostasis of two combined oral contraceptives containing drospirenone (DRSP) as progestogen component. Three milligrams of DRSP, a progestogen with antimineralocorticoid activity, was combined with either 30 or 20 microg ethinyl estradiol (EE) (DRSP/30EE; DRSP/20EE) and compared with a preparation containing 150 microg desogestrel (DSG) and 30 microg ethinyl estradiol (DSG/30EE). A total of 75 healthy female volunteers aged 18-35 years were enrolled. The hemostasis variables were measured in the medication-free precycle (baseline); in the first, third and sixth treatment cycle; and in the follow-up phase. The target variables for comparison were the relative changes from baseline to Cycle 6. Data of 25 volunteers in each group were valid for the per-protocol evaluation. Most changes in hemostasis variables were similar in the three treatment groups. All procoagulatory variables and the anticoagulatory variable protein C antigen increased slightly, while protein S antigen and activity decreased. For fibrinogen and protein S activity, the changes were statistically significant: less pronounced with DRSP/20EE compared to DSG/30EE at Cycle 6. There were no statistically significant differences in the changes of antifibrinolytic variables, the global clotting tests and D-dimer. All pairwise comparisons of DRSP/30EE vs. DSG/30EE yielded nonsignificant results; however, there was a trend of a lower impact of DRSP/20EE on nearly all hemostatic parameters compared to the 30EE products. All three study treatments were safe and well tolerated by the volunteers and provided adequate contraceptive reliability. The changes in the hemostatic variables for DRSP/20EE were less pronounced compared to DSG/30EE and DRSP/30EE. The results were in accordance with previous reports on effects of similar OCs.

Response of wheat restricted-tillering and vigorous growth traits to variables of climate change.

PubMed

Dias de Oliveira, Eduardo A; Siddique, Kadambot H M; Bramley, Helen; Stefanova, Katia; Palta, Jairo A

2015-02-01

The response of wheat to the variables of climate change includes elevated CO2, high temperature, and drought which vary according to the levels of each variable and genotype. Independently, elevated CO2, high temperature, and terminal drought affect wheat biomass and grain yield, but the interactive effects of these three variables are not well known. The aim of this study was to determine the effects of elevated CO2 when combined with high temperature and terminal drought on the high-yielding traits of restricted-tillering and vigorous growth. It was hypothesized that elevated CO2 alone, rather than combined with high temperature, ameliorates the effects of terminal drought on wheat biomass and grain yield. It was also hypothesized that wheat genotypes with more sink capacity (e.g. high-tillering capacity and leaf area) have more grain yield under combined elevated CO2, high temperature, and terminal drought. Two pairs of sister lines with contrasting tillering and vigorous growth were grown in poly-tunnels in a four-factor completely randomized split-plot design with elevated CO2 (700 µL L(-1)), high day time temperature (3 °C above ambient), and drought (induced from anthesis) in all combinations to test whether elevated CO2 ameliorates the effects of high temperature and terminal drought on biomass accumulation and grain yield. For biomass and grain yield, only main effects for climate change variables were significant. Elevated CO2 significantly increased grain yield by 24-35% in all four lines and terminal drought significantly reduced grain yield by 16-17% in all four lines, while high temperature (3 °C above the ambient) had no significant effect. A trade-off between yield components limited grain yield in lines with greater sink capacity (free-tillering lines). This response suggests that any positive response to predicted changes in climate will not overcome the limitations imposed by the trade-off in yield components. © 2014 Commonwealth of Australia. Global Change Biology © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The effects of cognitive-behavioral therapy on depression, anger, and self-control for Korean soldiers.

PubMed

Hyun, Myung-Sun; Chung, Hyang-In C; De Gagne, Jennie C; Kang, Hee Sun

2014-02-01

This quasi-experimental study examined the effects of cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) to control depression, anger, and self-control in soldiers from South Korea. Using a pretest-posttest design, the sample was composed of an experimental group (n = 16) and a control group (n = 12). The experimental group participated in four sessions of CBT. No significant differences were found between the groups with regard to demographic characteristics. Changes in the variables after the intervention were analyzed using Wilcoxon's signed-rank sum test. The depression scores decreased significantly after the intervention (z = -3.05, p = 0.002); whereas, the scores of state-trait anger and self-control did not change. In the control group, none of the outcome variable scores changed significantly. The results indicate that the developed CBT program might be an effective modality to decrease the depression of soldiers who are in military service. Copyright 2014, SLACK Incorporated.

Change in the magnitude and mechanisms of global temperature variability with warming

PubMed Central

Brown, Patrick T.; Ming, Yi; Li, Wenhong; Hill, Spencer A.

2017-01-01

Natural unforced variability in global mean surface air temperature (GMST) can mask or exaggerate human-caused global warming, and thus a complete understanding of this variability is highly desirable. Significant progress has been made in elucidating the magnitude and physical origins of present-day unforced GMST variability, but it has remained unclear how such variability may change as the climate warms. Here we present modeling evidence that indicates that the magnitude of low-frequency GMST variability is likely to decline in a warmer climate and that its generating mechanisms may be fundamentally altered. In particular, a warmer climate results in lower albedo at high latitudes, which yields a weaker albedo feedback on unforced GMST variability. These results imply that unforced GMST variability is dependent on the background climatological conditions, and thus climate model control simulations run under perpetual preindustrial conditions may have only limited relevance for understanding the unforced GMST variability of the future. PMID:29391875

Two centuries of observed atmospheric variability and change over the North Sea region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stendel, Martin; van den Besselaar, Else; Hannachi, Abdel; Kent, Elizabeth; Lefebvre, Christiana; van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; Rosenhagen, Gudrun; Schenk, Frederik; van der Schrier, Gerard

2015-04-01

Situated in northwestern Europe, the North Sea region is under influence of air masses from subtropical to arctic origin, and thus exhibits significant natural climate variability. As the land areas surrounding the North Sea are densely populated, climate change is an important issue in terms of e.g. coastal protection, fishery and trade. This study is part of the NOSCCA initiative (North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment) and presents observed variability and changes in atmospheric parameters during the last roughly 200 years. Circulation patterns show considerable decadal variability. In recent decades, a northward shift of storm tracks and increased cyclonic activity has been observed. There is also an indication of increased persistence of weather types. The wind climate is dominated by large multidecadal variability, and no robust long-term trends can be identified in the available datasets. There is a clear positive trend in near-surface temperatures, in particular during spring and winter. Over the region as a whole, no clear long-term precipitation trends are visible, although regional indications exist for an increased risk of extreme precipitation events.

Detection of carbon monoxide trends in the presence of interannual variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strode, Sarah A.; Pawson, Steven

2013-11-01

in fossil fuel emissions are a major driver of changes in atmospheric CO, but detection of trends in CO from anthropogenic sources is complicated by the presence of large interannual variability (IAV) in biomass burning. We use a multiyear model simulation of CO with year-specific biomass burning to predict the number of years needed to detect the impact of changes in Asian anthropogenic emissions on downwind regions. Our study includes two cases for changing anthropogenic emissions: a stepwise change of 15% and a linear trend of 3% yr-1. We first examine how well the model reproduces the observed IAV of CO over the North Pacific, since this variability impacts the time needed to detect significant anthropogenic trends. The modeled IAV over the North Pacific correlates well with that seen from the Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) instrument but underestimates the magnitude of the variability. The model predicts that a 3% yr-1 trend in Asian anthropogenic emissions would lead to a statistically significant trend in CO surface concentration in the western United States within 12 years, and accounting for Siberian boreal biomass-burning emissions greatly reduces the number of years needed for trend detection. Combining the modeled trend with the observed MOPITT variability at 500 hPa, we estimate that the 3% yr-1 trend could be detectable in satellite observations over Asia in approximately a decade. Our predicted timescales for trend detection highlight the importance of long-term measurements of CO from satellites.

The Influence of Individual Variability on Zooplankton Population Dynamics under Different Environmental Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bi, R.; Liu, H.

2016-02-01

Understanding how biological components respond to environmental changes could be insightful to predict ecosystem trajectories under different climate scenarios. Zooplankton are key components of marine ecosystems and changes in their dynamics could have major impact on ecosystem structure. We developed an individual-based model of a common coastal calanoid copepod Acartia tonsa to examine how environmental factors affect zooplankton population dynamics and explore the role of individual variability in sustaining population under various environmental conditions consisting of temperature, food concentration and salinity. Total abundance, egg production and proportion of survival were used to measure population success. Results suggested population benefits from high level of individual variability under extreme environmental conditions including unfavorable temperature, salinity, as well as low food concentration, and selection on fast-growers becomes stronger with increasing individual variability and increasing environmental stress. Multiple regression analysis showed that temperature, food concentration, salinity and individual variability have significant effects on survival of A. tonsa population. These results suggest that environmental factors have great influence on zooplankton population, and individual variability has important implications for population survivability under unfavorable conditions. Given that marine ecosystems are at risk from drastic environmental changes, understanding how individual variability sustains populations could increase our capability to predict population dynamics in a changing environment.

Relative roles of weather variables and change in human population in malaria: comparison over different states of India.

PubMed

Goswami, Prashant; Murty, Upadhayula Suryanarayana; Mutheneni, Srinivasa Rao; Krishnan, Swathi Trithala

2014-01-01

Pro-active and effective control as well as quantitative assessment of impact of climate change on malaria requires identification of the major drivers of the epidemic. Malaria depends on vector abundance which, in turn, depends on a combination of weather variables. However, there remain several gaps in our understanding and assessment of malaria in a changing climate. Most of the studies have considered weekly or even monthly mean values of weather variables, while the malaria vector is sensitive to daily variations. Secondly, rarely all the relevant meteorological variables have been considered together. An important question is the relative roles of weather variables (vector abundance) and change in host (human) population, in the change in disease load. We consider the 28 states of India, characterized by diverse climatic zones and changing population as well as complex variability in malaria, as a natural test bed. An annual vector load for each of the 28 states is defined based on the number of vector genesis days computed using daily values of temperature, rainfall and humidity from NCEP daily Reanalysis; a prediction of potential malaria load is defined by taking into consideration changes in the human population and compared with the reported number of malaria cases. For most states, the number of malaria cases is very well correlated with the vector load calculated with the combined conditions of daily values of temperature, rainfall and humidity; no single weather variable has any significant association with the observed disease prevalence. The association between vector-load and daily values of weather variables is robust and holds for different climatic regions (states of India). Thus use of all the three weather variables provides a reliable means of pro-active and efficient vector sanitation and control as well as assessment of impact of climate change on malaria.

Relative Roles of Weather Variables and Change in Human Population in Malaria: Comparison over Different States of India

PubMed Central

Goswami, Prashant; Murty, Upadhayula Suryanarayana; Mutheneni, Srinivasa Rao; Krishnan, Swathi Trithala

2014-01-01

Background Pro-active and effective control as well as quantitative assessment of impact of climate change on malaria requires identification of the major drivers of the epidemic. Malaria depends on vector abundance which, in turn, depends on a combination of weather variables. However, there remain several gaps in our understanding and assessment of malaria in a changing climate. Most of the studies have considered weekly or even monthly mean values of weather variables, while the malaria vector is sensitive to daily variations. Secondly, rarely all the relevant meteorological variables have been considered together. An important question is the relative roles of weather variables (vector abundance) and change in host (human) population, in the change in disease load. Method We consider the 28 states of India, characterized by diverse climatic zones and changing population as well as complex variability in malaria, as a natural test bed. An annual vector load for each of the 28 states is defined based on the number of vector genesis days computed using daily values of temperature, rainfall and humidity from NCEP daily Reanalysis; a prediction of potential malaria load is defined by taking into consideration changes in the human population and compared with the reported number of malaria cases. Results For most states, the number of malaria cases is very well correlated with the vector load calculated with the combined conditions of daily values of temperature, rainfall and humidity; no single weather variable has any significant association with the observed disease prevalence. Conclusion The association between vector-load and daily values of weather variables is robust and holds for different climatic regions (states of India). Thus use of all the three weather variables provides a reliable means of pro-active and efficient vector sanitation and control as well as assessment of impact of climate change on malaria. PMID:24971510

Alcohol Use and Sexual Risk Behaviors in a Migrant Worker Community.

PubMed

McCoy, H Virginia; Shehadeh, Nancy; Rubens, Muni

2016-06-01

There are not many studies exploring the association between alcohol use and risky sexual behaviors among migrant workers. This study analyzed how changes in alcohol use was associated with changes in risky sexual behavior and psychosocial variables. Data for this study was drawn from an HIV risk reduction project. Repeated measures ANOVA and Linear mixed model statistical method was conducted to find changes and association between alcohol use, sexual risk and psychosocial variables over time. The sample (n = 203) was composed of African Americans (33.0 %) and Hispanics (77.0 %) men. Both groups, over time, showed reduction in sexual risk in accordance with reduction in alcohol use. Changes in alcohol use and psychosocial variables showed significant association with sexual risk changes over time. Psychological strategies like building social support should be considered for HIV risk reduction intervention directed towards high alcohol consuming migrant workers.

Effects of 12 weeks combined aerobic and resistance exercise on heart rate variability in type 2 diabetes mellitus patients.

PubMed

Kang, Seol-Jung; Ko, Kwang-Jun; Baek, Un-Hyo

2016-07-01

[Purpose] This study evaluated the effects of 12 weeks combined aerobic and resistance exercise on heart rate variability in patients with Type 2 diabetes mellitus. [Subjects and Methods] The subjects were 16 female patients with Type 2 diabetes mellitus selected among the participants of a chronic disease management exercise class at C Region Public Health Center in South Korea. Subjects were randomly assigned to the exercise group (n=8; age, 55.97 ± 7.37) or the control group (n=8; age, 57.53 ± 4.63) The exercise group performed aerobic and resistance exercises for 60 minutes per day, 3 times per week for 12 weeks. Anthropometric measurements, biochemical markers, physical fitness, and heart rate variability were examined. [Results] After 12 weeks of exercise, weight, body fat percentage, waist circumference, blood glucose, insulin resistance, glycated hemoglobin level, systolic blood pressure, and diastolic blood pressure significantly decreased and cardiorespiratory fitness and muscular strength significantly increased in the exercise group. Although heart rate variability measures showed favorable changes with the exercise program, none were significant. [Conclusion] Although the exercise program did not show notable changes in heart rate variability in patients with Type 2 diabetes within the timeframe of the study, exercise may contribute to the prevention and control of cardiovascular autonomic neuropathy.

Impacts of Climate Trends and Variability on Livestock Production in Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohn, A.; Munger, J.; Gibbs, H.

2015-12-01

Cattle systems of Brazil are of major economic and environmental importance. They occupy ¼ of the land surface of the country, account for over 15 billion USD of annual revenue through the sale of beef, leather, and milk, are closely associated with deforestation, and have been projected to substantially grow in the coming decades. Sustainable intensification of production in the sector could help to limit environmental harm from increased production, but productivity growth could be inhibited by climate change. Gauging the potential future impacts of climate change on the Brazilian livestock sector can be aided by examining past evidence of the link between climate and cattle production and productivity. We use statistical techniques to investigate the contribution of climate variability and climate change to variability in cattle system output in Brazil's municipalities over the period 1974 to 2013. We find significant impacts of both temperature and precipitation variability and temperature trends on municipality-level exports and the production of both milk and beef. Pasture productivity, represented by a vegetation index, also varies significantly with climate shocks. In some regions, losses from exposure to climate trends were of comparable magnitude to technology and/or market-driven productivity gains over the study period.

A prospective 2-year examination of cognitive and behavioral correlates of provoked vestibulodynia outcomes.

PubMed

Davis, Seth N P; Bergeron, Sophie; Bois, Katy; Sadikaj, Gentiana; Binik, Yitzchak M; Steben, Marc

2015-04-01

Provoked vestibulodynia (PVD) is a common genital pain disorder in women that is associated with sexual dysfunction and lowered sexual satisfaction. A potentially applicable cognitive-behavioral model of chronic pain and disability is the fear-avoidance model (FAM) of pain. The FAM posits that cognitive variables, such as pain catastrophizing, fear, and anxiety lead to avoidance of pain-provoking behaviors (eg, intercourse), resulting in continued pain and disability. Although some of the FAM variables have been shown to be associated with PVD pain and sexuality outcomes, the model as a whole has never been tested in this population. An additional protective factor, pain self-efficacy (SE), is also associated with PVD, but has not been tested within the FAM model. Using a 2-year longitudinal design, we examine (1) whether initial levels (T1) of the independent FAM variables and pain SE were associated with changes in pain, sexual function, and sexual satisfaction over the 2-year time period; (2) the prospective contribution of changes in cognitive-affective (FAM) variables to changes in pain, and sexuality outcomes; and (3) whether these were mediated by behavioral change (avoidance of intercourse). A sample of 222 women with PVD completed self-report measures of FAM variables, SE, pain, sexual function, and sexual satisfaction at time 1 and at a 2-year follow-up. Structural equation modeling with Latent Difference Scores was used to examine changes and to examine mediation between variables. Questionnaires included the Pain Catastrophizing Scale, McGill Pain Questionnaire, Trait Anxiety Inventory, Pain Self-Efficacy Scale, and Global Measure of Sexual Satisfaction, Female Sexual Function Index. Participants who reported higher SE at T1 reported greater declines in pain, greater increases in sexual satisfaction, and greater declines in sexual function over the 2 time points. The overall change model did not support the FAM using negative cognitive-affective variables. Only increases in pain SE were associated with reductions in pain intensity. The relationship between changes in SE and changes in pain was partially mediated through changes in avoidance (more intercourse attempts). The same pattern of results was found for changes in sexual satisfaction as the outcome, and a partial mediation effect was found. There were no significant predictors of changes in sexual function other than T1 SE. Changes in both cognitive and behavioral variables were significantly associated with improved pain and sexual satisfaction outcomes. However, it was the positive changes in SE that better predicted changes in avoidance behavior, pain, and sexual satisfaction. Cognitive-behavior therapy is often focused on changing negative pain-related cognitions to reduce avoidance and pain, but the present results demonstrate the potential importance of bolstering positive self-beliefs as well. Indeed, before engaging in exposure therapies, SE beliefs should be assessed and potentially targeted to improve adherence to exposure strategies.

Predictors of science success: The impact of motivation and learning strategies on college chemistry performance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Obrentz, Shari B.

As the number of college students studying science continues to grow, it is important to identify variables that predict their success. The literature indicates that motivation and learning strategy use facilitate science success. Research findings show these variables can change throughout a semester and differ by performance level, gender and ethnicity. However, significant predictors of performance vary by research study and by group. The current study looks beyond the traditional predictors of grade point averages, SAT scores and completion of advanced placement (AP) chemistry to consider a comprehensive set of variables not previously investigated within the same study. Research questions address the predictive ability of motivation constructs and learning strategies for success in introductory college chemistry, how these variables change throughout a semester, and how they differ by performance level, gender and ethnicity. Participants were 413 introductory college chemistry students at a highly selective university in the southeast. Participants completed the Chemistry Motivation Questionnaire (CMQ) and Learning Strategies section of the Motivated Strategies for Learning Questionnaire (MSLQ) three times during the semester. Self-efficacy, effort regulation, assessment anxiety and previous achievement were significant predictors of chemistry course success. Levels of motivation changed with significant decreases in self-efficacy and increases in personal relevance and assessment anxiety. Learning strategy use changed with significant increases in elaboration, critical thinking, metacognitive self-regulation skills and peer learning, and significant decreases in time and study management and effort regulation. High course performers reported the highest levels of motivation and learning strategy use. Females reported lower intrinsic motivation, personal relevance, self-efficacy and critical thinking, and higher assessment anxiety, rehearsal and organization. Self-efficacy predicted performance for males and females, while self-determination, help-seeking and time and study environment also predicted female success. Few differences in these variables were found between ethnicity groups. Self-efficacy positively predicted performance for Asians and Whites, and metacognitive self-regulation skills negatively predicted success for Other students. The results have implications for college science instructors who are encouraged to collect and utilize data on students' motivation and learning strategy use, promote both in science classes, and design interventions for specific students who need more support.

Indian monsoon variability on millennial-orbital timescales

PubMed Central

Kathayat, Gayatri; Cheng, Hai; Sinha, Ashish; Spötl, Christoph; Edwards, R. Lawrence; Zhang, Haiwei; Li, Xianglei; Yi, Liang; Ning, Youfeng; Cai, Yanjun; Lui, Weiguo Lui; Breitenbach, Sebastian F. M.

2016-01-01

The Indian summer monsoon (ISM) monsoon is critical to billions of people living in the region. Yet, significant debates remain on primary ISM drivers on millennial-orbital timescales. Here, we use speleothem oxygen isotope (δ18O) data from Bittoo cave, Northern India to reconstruct ISM variability over the past 280,000 years. We find strong coherence between North Indian and Chinese speleothem δ18O records from the East Asian monsoon domain, suggesting that both Asian monsoon subsystems exhibit a coupled response to changes in Northern Hemisphere summer insolation (NHSI) without significant temporal lags, supporting the view that the tropical-subtropical monsoon variability is driven directly by precession-induced changes in NHSI. Comparisons of the North Indian record with both Antarctic ice core and sea-surface temperature records from the southern Indian Ocean over the last glacial period do not suggest a dominant role of Southern Hemisphere climate processes in regulating the ISM variability on millennial-orbital timescales. PMID:27071753

Neuroticism Combined With Slower and More Variable Reaction Time: Synergistic Risk Factors for 7-Year Cognitive Decline in Females

PubMed Central

Shickle, Darren A.; Roberts, Beverly A.; Deary, Ian J.

2012-01-01

Objective. Among adults, slower and more variable reaction times are associated with worse cognitive function and increased mortality risk. Therefore, it is important to elucidate risk factors for reaction time change over the life course. Method. Data from the Health and Lifestyle Survey (HALS) were used to examine predictors of 7-year decline in reaction time (N = 4,260). Regression-derived factor scores were used to summarize general change across 4 reaction time variables: simple mean, 4-choice mean, simple variability, and 4-choice variability (53.52% of variance). Results. Age (B = .02, p < .001) and HALS1 baseline reaction time (B = −.10, p = .001) were significant risk factors for males (N = 1,899). In addition to these variables, in females (N = 2,361), neuroticism was significant and interacted synergistically with baseline reaction time (B = .06, p = .04). Adjustment for physiological variables explained the interaction with neuroticism, suggesting that candidate mechanisms had been identified. Discussion. A priority for future research is to replicate interactions between personality and reaction time in other samples and find specific mechanisms. Stratification of population data on cognitive health by personality and reaction time could improve strategies for identifying those at greater risk of cognitive decline. PMID:22367712

Factors that affect the postnatal increase in superior mesenteric artery blood flow velocity in very low birth weight preterm infants.

PubMed

Havranek, Thomas; Miladinovic, Branko; Wadhawan, Rajan; Carver, Jane D

2012-04-15

To identify factors related to the postnatal increase in superior mesenteric artery blood flow velocity (SMA BFV). SMA BFV was measured in 35 infants (birth weight 1047±246 g) on day of life (DOL) 1, 3, 5, 7 10 and 14. Latent curve modeling (LCM) was used to measure the longitudinal change in BFV for each subject, and the correlation between changes in BFV and baseline values. Non-parametric correlations were calculated between BFV and variables previously reported to be related to SMA BFV. There was significant variability in SMA BFV on DOL 1, a significant increase from DOL 1-14, and significant variability in the postnatal increase. Infants with higher enteral feeding volumes had greater increases, while infants receiving positive pressure ventilation or hyperalimentation had lower increases. Several clinical factors affect the postnatal increase in SMA BFV. The use of LCM is useful in longitudinal studies of very low birth weight (VLBW) infants, who are clinically and demographically heterogeneous.

Long-term behaviour and cross-correlation water quality analysis of the River Elbe, Germany.

PubMed

Lehmann, A; Rode, M

2001-06-01

This study analyses weekly data samples from the river Elbe at Magdeburg between 1984 and 1996 to investigate the changes in metabolism and water quality in the river Elbe since the German reunification in 1990. Modelling water quality variables by autoregressive component models and ARIMA models reveals the improvement of water quality due to the reduction of waste water emissions since 1990. The models are used to determine the long-term and seasonal behaviour of important water quality variables. Organic and heavy metal pollution parameters showed a significant decrease since 1990, however, no significant change of chlorophyll-a as a measure for primary production could be found. A new procedure for testing the significance of a sample correlation coefficient is discussed, which is able to detect spurious sample correlation coefficients without making use of time-consuming prewhitening. The cross-correlation analysis is applied to hydrophysical, biological, and chemical water quality variables of the river Elbe since 1984. Special emphasis is laid on the detection of spurious sample correlation coefficients.

Cognitive inconsistency in bipolar patients is determined by increased intra-individual variability in initial phase of task performance.

PubMed

Krukow, Paweł; Szaniawska, Ola; Harciarek, Michał; Plechawska-Wójcik, Małgorzata; Jonak, Kamil

2017-03-01

Bipolar patients show high intra-individual variability during cognitive processing. However, it is not known whether there are a specific fluctuations of variability contributing to the overall high cognitive inconsistency. The objective was to compare dynamic profiles of patients and healthy controls to identify hypothetical differences and their associations with overall variability and processing speed. Changes of reaction times iSD during processing speed test performance over time was measured by dividing the iSD for whole task into four consecutive parts. Motor speed and cognitive effort were controlled. Patients with BD exhibited significantly lower results regarding processing speed and higher intra-individual variability comparing with HC. The profile of intra-individual variability changes over time of performance was significantly different in BD versus HC groups: F(3, 207)=8.60, p<0.0001, η p 2 =0.11. iSD of BD patients in the initial phase of performance was three times higher than in the last. There was no significant differences between four intervals in HC group. Inter-group difference in the initial part of the profiles was significant also after controlling for several cognitive and clinical variables. Applied computer version of Cognitive Speed Test was relatively new and, thus, replication studies are needed. Effect seen in the present study is driven mainly by the BD type I. Patients with BD exhibits problems with setting a stimulus-response association in starting phase of cognitive processing. This deficit may negatively interfere with the other cognitive functions, decreasing level of psychosocial functioning, therefore should be explored in future studies. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Explanatory Variables Associated with Campylobacter and Escherichia coli Concentrations on Broiler Chicken Carcasses during Processing in Two Slaughterhouses.

PubMed

Pacholewicz, Ewa; Swart, Arno; Wagenaar, Jaap A; Lipman, Len J A; Havelaar, Arie H

2016-12-01

This study aimed at identifying explanatory variables that were associated with Campylobacter and Escherichia coli concentrations throughout processing in two commercial broiler slaughterhouses. Quantative data on Campylobacter and E. coli along the processing line were collected. Moreover, information on batch characteristics, slaughterhouse practices, process performance, and environmental variables was collected through questionnaires, observations, and measurements, resulting in data on 19 potential explanatory variables. Analysis was conducted separately in each slaughterhouse to identify which variables were related to changes in concentrations of Campylobacter and E. coli during the processing steps: scalding, defeathering, evisceration, and chilling. Associations with explanatory variables were different in the slaughterhouses studied. In the first slaughterhouse, there was only one significant association: poorer uniformity of the weight of carcasses within a batch with less decrease in E. coli concentrations after defeathering. In the second slaughterhouse, significant statistical associations were found with variables, including age, uniformity, average weight of carcasses, Campylobacter concentrations in excreta and ceca, and E. coli concentrations in excreta. Bacterial concentrations in excreta and ceca were found to be the most prominent variables, because they were associated with concentration on carcasses at various processing points. Although the slaughterhouses produced specific products and had different batch characteristics and processing parameters, the effect of the significant variables was not always the same for each slaughterhouse. Therefore, each slaughterhouse needs to determine its particular relevant measures for hygiene control and process management. This identification could be supported by monitoring changes in bacterial concentrations during processing in individual slaughterhouses. In addition, the possibility that management and food handling practices in slaughterhouses contribute to the differences in bacterial contamination between slaughterhouses needs further investigation.

Long-term trend analysis of reservoir water quality and quantity at the landscape scale in two major river basins of Texas, USA.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Patino, Reynaldo; Asquith, William H.; VanLandeghem, Matthew M.; Dawson, D.

2016-01-01

Trends in water quality and quantity were assessed for 11 major reservoirs of the Brazos and Colorado river basins in the southern Great Plains (maximum period of record, 1965–2010). Water quality, major contributing-stream inflow, storage, local precipitation, and basin-wide total water withdrawals were analyzed. Inflow and storage decreased and total phosphorus increased in most reservoirs. The overall, warmest-, or coldest-monthly temperatures increased in 7 reservoirs, decreased in 1 reservoir, and did not significantly change in 3 reservoirs. The most common monotonic trend in salinity-related variables (specific conductance, chloride, sulfate) was one of no change, and when significant change occurred, it was inconsistent among reservoirs. No significant change was detected in monthly sums of local precipitation. Annual water withdrawals increased in both basins, but the increase was significant (P < 0.05) only in the Colorado River and marginally significant (P < 0.1) in the Brazos River. Salinity-related variables dominated spatial variability in water quality data due to the presence of high- and low-salinity reservoirs in both basins. These observations present a landscape in the Brazos and Colorado river basins where, in the last ∼40 years, reservoir inflow and storage generally decreased, eutrophication generally increased, and water temperature generally increased in at least 1 of 3 temperature indicators evaluated. Because local precipitation remained generally stable, observed reductions in reservoir inflow and storage during the study period may be attributable to other proximate factors, including increased water withdrawals (at least in the Colorado River basin) or decreased runoff from contributing watersheds.

Perceived Social Support Change in Patients with Early-stage Breast Cancer and Controls

PubMed Central

Thompson, Tess; Rodebaugh, Thomas L.; Pérez, Maria; Schootman, Mario; Jeffe, Donna B.

2014-01-01

Objective To identify variables associated with levels of and change in social support in a cohort of early-stage breast cancer patients and age-matched controls. Methods Telephone interviews measuring perceived social support and other demographic and psychosocial variables were conducted at 4–6 weeks and 6, 12, and 24 months after surgery (patients) or a normal/benign screening mammogram (controls). A latent trajectory model was used to model the intercept (starting point) and slope (changing) aspects of social support. Results Participants included 542 controls and 541 patients (77% White, 23% African American; mean age 57.7 [SD = 10.6]). Most participants reported high social support. Patients reported significantly higher levels of social support at baseline than controls. For patients, social support had a significant negative slope that significantly varied between individuals; the intercept of social support also varied significantly. Predictors of lower social support intercept in patients included not being married/partnered, being White, having lower perceived general health, and having higher negative affect (modeled as a latent variable defined by anxiety and depression symptom severity). Patients who were African American (vs. White) or had mastectomy (vs. lumpectomy) had steeper social support declines, and participants with both these characteristics had lower starting points as well as steeper declines. Social support among controls did not change significantly. Conclusions Clinicians might consider psychosocial interventions for patients reporting low social support around the time of diagnosis and surgical treatment, and for patients at risk for steeper declines in support, such as African Americans and women undergoing mastectomy. PMID:23477582

Reply to Comment by Laprise on 'the Added Value to Global Model Projections of Climate Change by Dynamical Downscaling: a Case Study over the Continental U.S. Using the GISS-ModelE2 and WRF Models'

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shindell, Drew Todd; Racherla, Pavan; Milly, George Peter

2014-01-01

In his comment, Laprise raises several points that we agree merit consideration. His primary critique is that our study [Racherla et al., 2012] tested the ability of the WRF regional climate model to reproduce historical temperature and precipitation change relative to the driving global climate model (GCM) using only a single simulation rather than an ensemble. He asserts that the observed changes are smaller than the internal variability in the climate system (i.e., not statistically significant) and that thus a single simulation should not necessarily be able to capture the observations. Laprise points out that the statistical signal is reduced for a multi-decadal trend such as the one we analyzed in comparison with mean climatology and cites two studies showing that for particular climate parameters it can take any years for a signal to be discerned over internal variability. He states that The results of theexperiment as designed were strongly influenced by the presence of internal variability and sampling errors,which masked the rather small climate changes that may have occurred as a consequence of changes inforcing during the period considered. While Laprise discusses statistics in general terms at some length, for the actual climate trends examined in our study, he offers no evidence that the forced signal was smallcompared with internal variability. The two studies he cites [de Ela et al., 2013; Maraun, 2013] do not provide convincing evidence as they concern climate variables averaged over different times and areas. One in fact examines extreme precipitation events, which by definition are rare and thus have a lower significance level. We accept the general point that it is important to consider internal variability, and as noted in our paper we agree that an ensemble of simulations is in principle an optimal, though computationally expensive, approach. While we did not present the statistical significance of the observations in our original paper, we have now evaluated those for the regional temperature trends used in our study to evaluate the added value of WRF and thus can analyze data as to the magnitude of the trends with respect to internal variability.

The impact of sampling, PCR, and sequencing replication on discerning changes in drinking water bacterial community over diurnal time-scales.

PubMed

Bautista-de Los Santos, Quyen Melina; Schroeder, Joanna L; Blakemore, Oliver; Moses, Jonathan; Haffey, Mark; Sloan, William; Pinto, Ameet J

2016-03-01

High-throughput and deep DNA sequencing, particularly amplicon sequencing, is being increasingly utilized to reveal spatial and temporal dynamics of bacterial communities in drinking water systems. Whilst the sampling and methodological biases associated with PCR and sequencing have been studied in other environments, they have not been quantified for drinking water. These biases are likely to have the greatest effect on the ability to characterize subtle spatio-temporal patterns influenced by process/environmental conditions. In such cases, intra-sample variability may swamp any underlying small, systematic variation. To evaluate this, we undertook a study with replication at multiple levels including sampling sites, sample collection, PCR amplification, and high throughput sequencing of 16S rRNA amplicons. The variability inherent to the PCR amplification and sequencing steps is significant enough to mask differences between bacterial communities from replicate samples. This was largely driven by greater variability in detection of rare bacteria (relative abundance <0.01%) across PCR/sequencing replicates as compared to replicate samples. Despite this, we captured significant changes in bacterial community over diurnal time-scales and find that the extent and pattern of diurnal changes is specific to each sampling location. Further, we find diurnal changes in bacterial community arise due to differences in the presence/absence of the low abundance bacteria and changes in the relative abundance of dominant bacteria. Finally, we show that bacterial community composition is significantly different across sampling sites for time-periods during which there are typically rapid changes in water use. This suggests hydraulic changes (driven by changes in water demand) contribute to shaping the bacterial community in bulk drinking water over diurnal time-scales. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate Change and the Central American Mid-summer Drought - The Importance of Changing Precipitation Patterns for Food and Water Security

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maurer, E. P.; Stewart, I. T.; Sundstrom, W.; Bacon, C. M.

2016-12-01

In addition to periodic long-term drought, much of Central America experiences a rainy season with two peaks separated by a dry period of weeks to over a month in duration, termed the mid-summer drought (MSD). Food and water security for smallholder farmers in the region hinge on accommodating this phenomenon, anticipating its arrival and estimating its duration. Model output from 1980 through the late 21st century projects changes in precipitation amount, variability, and timing, with potential to affect regional food production. Using surveys of farmer experiences in conjunction with gridded daily precipitation for a historic period on multiple scales, and with projections through the 21st century, we characterize the MSD across much of Central America using four measures: onset date, duration, intensity, and minimum, and test for significant changes. Our findings indicate that the most significant changes are for the duration, which, by the end of the century, is projected to increase by an average of over a week, and the MSD minimum precipitation, which is projected to decline by an average of over 26%, with statistically significant changes for most of Nicaragua, Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala (assuming a higher emissions pathway through the 21st century). These changes toward a longer and drier MSD have important implications for food and water security for vulnerable communities through the region. We find that for the four metrics the changes in interannual variability are small compared to historical variability, and are generally statistically insignificant. New farmer survey results are compared to findings from our climate analysis for the historic period, are used to interpret what MSD characteristics are of greatest interest locally, and are used for the development of adaptation strategies.

Land change variability and human-environment dynamics in the United States Great Plains

USGS Publications Warehouse

Drummond, M.A.; Auch, Roger F.; Karstensen, K.A.; Sayler, K. L.; Taylor, Janis L.; Loveland, Thomas R.

2012-01-01

Land use and land cover changes have complex linkages to climate variability and change, biophysical resources, and socioeconomic driving forces. To assess these land change dynamics and their causes in the Great Plains, we compare and contrast contemporary changes across 16 ecoregions using Landsat satellite data and statistical analysis. Large-area change analysis of agricultural regions is often hampered by change detection error and the tendency for land conversions to occur at the local-scale. To facilitate a regional-scale analysis, a statistical sampling design of randomly selected 10 km × 10 km blocks is used to efficiently identify the types and rates of land conversions for four time intervals between 1973 and 2000, stratified by relatively homogenous ecoregions. Nearly 8% of the overall Great Plains region underwent land-use and land-cover change during the study period, with a substantial amount of ecoregion variability that ranged from less than 2% to greater than 13%. Agricultural land cover declined by more than 2% overall, with variability contingent on the differential characteristics of regional human–environment systems. A large part of the Great Plains is in relatively stable land cover. However, other land systems with significant biophysical and climate limitations for agriculture have high rates of land change when pushed by economic, policy, technology, or climate forcing factors. The results indicate the regionally based potential for land cover to persist or fluctuate as land uses are adapted to spatially and temporally variable forcing factors.

Change in heart rate variability after the adult attachment interview in dissociative patients.

PubMed

Farina, Benedetto; Speranza, Anna Maria; Imperatori, Claudio; Quintiliani, Maria Isabella; Della Marca, Giacomo

2015-01-01

The aim of this study was to assess heart rate variability (HRV) in individuals with dissociative disorders (DD) before and after the Adult Attachment Interview (AAI). Electrocardiograms were recorded before, during, and after the AAI in 13 individuals with DD and 13 healthy participants matched for age and gender. Significant change in HRV was observed only in the DD group. After the AAI, those with DD showed significant increases in the low frequency/high frequency ratio (pre-AAI = 1.91 ± 1.19; post-AAI = 4.03 ± 2.40; Wilcoxon test = -2.76, p = .005). Our results suggest that the retrieval of childhood attachment experiences in individuals with DD is associated with a change in HRV patterns that could reflect the emotion dysregulation of dissociative psychopathological processes.

A Decline in Response Variability Improves Neural Signal Detection during Auditory Task Performance.

PubMed

von Trapp, Gardiner; Buran, Bradley N; Sen, Kamal; Semple, Malcolm N; Sanes, Dan H

2016-10-26

The detection of a sensory stimulus arises from a significant change in neural activity, but a sensory neuron's response is rarely identical to successive presentations of the same stimulus. Large trial-to-trial variability would limit the central nervous system's ability to reliably detect a stimulus, presumably affecting perceptual performance. However, if response variability were to decrease while firing rate remained constant, then neural sensitivity could improve. Here, we asked whether engagement in an auditory detection task can modulate response variability, thereby increasing neural sensitivity. We recorded telemetrically from the core auditory cortex of gerbils, both while they engaged in an amplitude-modulation detection task and while they sat quietly listening to the identical stimuli. Using a signal detection theory framework, we found that neural sensitivity was improved during task performance, and this improvement was closely associated with a decrease in response variability. Moreover, units with the greatest change in response variability had absolute neural thresholds most closely aligned with simultaneously measured perceptual thresholds. Our findings suggest that the limitations imposed by response variability diminish during task performance, thereby improving the sensitivity of neural encoding and potentially leading to better perceptual sensitivity. The detection of a sensory stimulus arises from a significant change in neural activity. However, trial-to-trial variability of the neural response may limit perceptual performance. If the neural response to a stimulus is quite variable, then the response on a given trial could be confused with the pattern of neural activity generated when the stimulus is absent. Therefore, a neural mechanism that served to reduce response variability would allow for better stimulus detection. By recording from the cortex of freely moving animals engaged in an auditory detection task, we found that variability of the neural response becomes smaller during task performance, thereby improving neural detection thresholds. Copyright © 2016 the authors 0270-6474/16/3611097-10$15.00/0.

Blood pressure response to renal denervation is correlated with baseline blood pressure variability: a patient-level meta-analysis.

PubMed

Persu, Alexandre; Gordin, Daniel; Jacobs, Lotte; Thijs, Lutgarde; Bots, Michiel L; Spiering, Wilko; Miroslawska, Atena; Spaak, Jonas; Rosa, Ján; de Jong, Mark R; Berra, Elena; Fadl Elmula, Fadl Elmula M; Wuerzner, Gregoire; Taylor, Alison H M; Olszanecka, Agnieszka; Czarnecka, Danuta; Mark, Patrick B; Burnier, Michel; Renkin, Jean; Kjeldsen, Sverre E; Widimský, Jiří; Elvan, Arif; Kahan, Thomas; Steigen, Terje K; Blankestijn, Peter J; Tikkanen, Ilkka; Staessen, Jan A

2018-02-01

Sympathetic tone is one of the main determinants of blood pressure (BP) variability and treatment-resistant hypertension. The aim of our study was to assess changes in BP variability after renal denervation (RDN). In addition, on an exploratory basis, we investigated whether baseline BP variability predicted the BP changes after RDN. We analyzed 24-h BP recordings obtained at baseline and 6 months after RDN in 167 treatment-resistant hypertension patients (40% women; age, 56.7 years; mean 24-h BP, 152/90 mmHg) recruited at 11 expert centers. BP variability was assessed by weighted SD [SD over time weighted for the time interval between consecutive readings (SDiw)], average real variability (ARV), coefficient of variation, and variability independent of the mean (VIM). Mean office and 24-h BP fell by 15.4/6.6 and 5.5/3.7 mmHg, respectively (P < 0.001). In multivariable-adjusted analyses, systolic/diastolic SDiw and VIM for 24-h SBP/DBP decreased by 1.18/0.63 mmHg (P ≤ 0.01) and 0.86/0.42 mmHg (P ≤ 0.05), respectively, whereas no significant changes in ARV or coefficient of variation occurred. Furthermore, baseline SDiw (P = 0.0006), ARV (P = 0.01), and VIM (P = 0.04) predicted the decrease in 24-h DBP but not 24-h SBP after RDN. RDN was associated with a decrease in BP variability independent of the BP level, suggesting that responders may derive benefits from the reduction in BP variability as well. Furthermore, baseline DBP variability estimates significantly correlated with mean DBP decrease after RDN. If confirmed in younger patients with less arterial damage, in the absence of the confounding effect of drugs and drug adherence, baseline BP variability may prove a good predictor of BP response to RDN.

Attributing carbon changes in conterminous U.S

Treesearch

Fangmin Zhang; Jing M. Chen; Yude Pan; Richard A. Birdsey; Shuanghe Shen; Weimin Ju; Liming He

2012-01-01

Recent climate variability (increasing temperature, droughts) and atmospheric composition changes (nitrogen deposition, rising CO2 concentration) along with harvesting, wildfires, and insect infestations have had significant effects on U.S. forest carbon (C) uptake. In this study, we attribute C changes in the conterminous U.S. forests to...

Variability of growing degree days in Poland in response to ongoing climate changes in Europe.

PubMed

Wypych, Agnieszka; Sulikowska, Agnieszka; Ustrnul, Zbigniew; Czekierda, Danuta

2017-01-01

An observed increase in air temperature can lead to significant changes in the phenology of plants and, consequently, changes in agricultural production. The aim of the study was to evaluate the spatial differentiation of thermal resources in Poland and their variability during a period of changing thermal conditions in Europe. Since the variability of thermal conditions is of paramount importance for perennial crops, the study focused on apple, plum, and cherry orchard regions in Poland. The analysis was conducted for the period of 1951-2010 using air temperature daily data. Thermal resources have been defined using the growing degree days (GDD) index calculated independently for the whole year and during in frost-free season for three air temperature thresholds: 0, 5, and 10 °C, which determine the non-winter period, growing season, and the period of full plant growth, respectively. In addition, due to the high significance for perennials in particular, the incidence and intensity of frost during flowering were calculated. In this study, a detailed analysis of the spatial differentiation of thermal resources was first performed, followed by an evaluation of long-term variability and associated change patterns. The obtained results confirmed an increase in thermal resources in Poland as a consequence of the lengthening of the growing season. However, the frequency and intensity of spring frost, especially during flowering or even during ripening of plants, remain a threat to harvests in both the eastern and western parts of the country.

Examining shifts in zooplankton community as a response of environmental change in Lakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghadouani, Anas; Mines, Conor; Legendre, Pierre; Yan, Norman

2014-05-01

We examined 20 years of zooplankton samples from Harp Lake for shifts in zooplankton variability following invasion by zooplankton predator Bythotrephes longimanus, using organism body size—as measured at high resolution by Laser Optical Plankton Counter (LOPC)—as the primary metric of investigation. A period of transitory high variability in the 2yr post-invasion was observed for both body size compositional variability and aggregate variability metrics, with both measures of variability shifting from low or intermediate to high variability immediately following invasion, before shifting again to intermediate variability, 2 yr post-invasion. Aggregate and compositional variability dynamics were also considered in combination over the study period, revealing that the period of transitory high variability coincided with a shift from a community-wide stasis variability pattern to one of asynchrony, before a shift back to stasis 2 yr post-invasion. These dynamics were related to changes in the significant zooplankton species within the Harp Lake community over the pre- and post- invasion periods, and are likely to be indicative of changes in the stability in the zooplankton community following invasion by Bythotrephes. The dual consideration of aggregate and compositional variability as measured by LOPC was found to provide a valuable means to assess the ecological effects of biological invasion on zooplankton communities as a whole, extending our knowledge of the effects of invasion beyond that already revealed through more traditional taxonomic investigation.

Monitoring Dissolved Oxygen in New Jersey Coastal Waters Using Autonomous Gliders

EPA Science Inventory

The coastal ocean is a highly variable system with processes that have significant implications on the hydrographic and oxygen characteristics of the water column. The spatial and temporal variability of these fields can cause dramatic changes to water quality and in turn the h...

Effects of Short Term Bioturbation by Common Voles on Biogeochemical Soil Variables

PubMed Central

Wilske, Burkhard; Eccard, Jana A.; Zistl-Schlingmann, Marcus; Hohmann, Maximilian; Methler, Annabel; Herde, Antje; Liesenjohann, Thilo; Dannenmann, Michael; Butterbach-Bahl, Klaus; Breuer, Lutz

2015-01-01

Bioturbation contributes to soil formation and ecosystem functioning. With respect to the active transport of matter by voles, bioturbation may be considered as a very dynamic process among those shaping soil formation and biogeochemistry. The present study aimed at characterizing and quantifying the effects of bioturbation by voles on soil water relations and carbon and nitrogen stocks. Bioturbation effects were examined based on a field set up in a luvic arenosol comprising of eight 50 × 50 m enclosures with greatly different numbers of common vole (Microtus arvalis L., ca. 35–150 individuals ha–1 mth–1). Eleven key soil variables were analyzed: bulk density, infiltration rate, saturated hydraulic conductivity, water holding capacity, contents of soil organic carbon (SOC) and total nitrogen (N), CO2 emission potential, C/N ratio, the stable isotopic signatures of 13C and 15N, and pH. The highest vole densities were hypothesized to cause significant changes in some variables within 21 months. Results showed that land history had still a major influence, as eight key variables displayed an additional or sole influence of topography. However, the δ15N at depths of 10–20 and 20–30 cm decreased and increased with increasing vole numbers, respectively. Also the CO2 emission potential from soil collected at a depth of 15–30 cm decreased and the C/N ratio at 5–10 cm depth narrowed with increasing vole numbers. These variables indicated the first influence of voles on the respective mineralization processes in some soil layers. Tendencies of vole activity homogenizing SOC and N contents across layers were not significant. The results of the other seven key variables did not confirm significant effects of voles. Thus overall, we found mainly a first response of variables that are indicative for changes in biogeochemical dynamics but not yet of those representing changes in pools. PMID:25954967

Effects of short term bioturbation by common voles on biogeochemical soil variables.

PubMed

Wilske, Burkhard; Eccard, Jana A; Zistl-Schlingmann, Marcus; Hohmann, Maximilian; Methler, Annabel; Herde, Antje; Liesenjohann, Thilo; Dannenmann, Michael; Butterbach-Bahl, Klaus; Breuer, Lutz

2015-01-01

Bioturbation contributes to soil formation and ecosystem functioning. With respect to the active transport of matter by voles, bioturbation may be considered as a very dynamic process among those shaping soil formation and biogeochemistry. The present study aimed at characterizing and quantifying the effects of bioturbation by voles on soil water relations and carbon and nitrogen stocks. Bioturbation effects were examined based on a field set up in a luvic arenosol comprising of eight 50 × 50 m enclosures with greatly different numbers of common vole (Microtus arvalis L., ca. 35-150 individuals ha-1 mth-1). Eleven key soil variables were analyzed: bulk density, infiltration rate, saturated hydraulic conductivity, water holding capacity, contents of soil organic carbon (SOC) and total nitrogen (N), CO2 emission potential, C/N ratio, the stable isotopic signatures of 13C and 15N, and pH. The highest vole densities were hypothesized to cause significant changes in some variables within 21 months. Results showed that land history had still a major influence, as eight key variables displayed an additional or sole influence of topography. However, the δ15N at depths of 10-20 and 20-30 cm decreased and increased with increasing vole numbers, respectively. Also the CO2 emission potential from soil collected at a depth of 15-30 cm decreased and the C/N ratio at 5-10 cm depth narrowed with increasing vole numbers. These variables indicated the first influence of voles on the respective mineralization processes in some soil layers. Tendencies of vole activity homogenizing SOC and N contents across layers were not significant. The results of the other seven key variables did not confirm significant effects of voles. Thus overall, we found mainly a first response of variables that are indicative for changes in biogeochemical dynamics but not yet of those representing changes in pools.

Value of Nephrometry Score Constituents on Perioperative Outcomes and Split Renal Function in Patients Undergoing Minimally Invasive Partial Nephrectomy.

PubMed

Watts, Kara L; Ghosh, Propa; Stein, Solomon; Ghavamian, Reza

2017-01-01

To assess the relationship between individual nephrometry score (NS) constituents (RENAL) on perioperative outcomes and renal function of the surgical kidney in patients undergoing laparoscopic partial nephrectomy or robotic-assisted partial nephrectomy. Two hundred forty-five patients who underwent laparoscopic partial nephrectomy or robotic-assisted partial nephrectomy between 2005 and 2014 were retrospectively reviewed. Each renal mass' NS was calculated from preoperative computed tomography imaging. Multivariate regression analysis was used to evaluate the effect of NS variables on perioperative outcomes and change in overall renal function (as estimated by glomerular filtration rate) from preoperative to 1-year postoperative. A cohort analysis assessed the effect of NS variables on change in split renal function of the surgical kidney from pre- to postoperative based on nuclear medicine renal scintigraphy. Tumor radius (R), endophytic nature (E), and nearness to collecting system (N) variables significantly and incrementally predicted a longer operative time and warm ischemia time. Overall renal function based on glomerular filtration rate was not affected by any NS variable. However, percent function of the surgical kidney by renal scintigraphy significantly decreased postoperatively as R and E values increased. R, E, and N were associated with significant changes in warm ischemia time and operative time. R and E were associated with a significant decrease in split renal function of the surgical kidney at 1 year after surgery but not with overall renal function. R, E, and N are the NS constituents most relevant to perioperative outcomes and postoperative differential renal function after partial nephrectomy. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

A Sustained Dietary Change Increases Epigenetic Variation in Isogenic Mice

PubMed Central

Cowley, Mark J.; Preiss, Thomas; Martin, David I. K.; Suter, Catherine M.

2011-01-01

Epigenetic changes can be induced by adverse environmental exposures, such as nutritional imbalance, but little is known about the nature or extent of these changes. Here we have explored the epigenomic effects of a sustained nutritional change, excess dietary methyl donors, by assessing genomic CpG methylation patterns in isogenic mice exposed for one or six generations. We find stochastic variation in methylation levels at many loci; exposure to methyl donors increases the magnitude of this variation and the number of variable loci. Several gene ontology categories are significantly overrepresented in genes proximal to these methylation-variable loci, suggesting that certain pathways are susceptible to environmental influence on their epigenetic states. Long-term exposure to the diet (six generations) results in a larger number of loci exhibiting epigenetic variability, suggesting that some of the induced changes are heritable. This finding presents the possibility that epigenetic variation within populations can be induced by environmental change, providing a vehicle for disease predisposition and possibly a substrate for natural selection. PMID:21541011

Analyzing the responses of species assemblages to climate change across the Great Basin, USA.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henareh Khalyani, A.; Falkowski, M. J.; Crookston, N.; Yousef, F.

2016-12-01

The potential impacts of climate change on the future distribution of tree species in not well understood. Climate driven changes in tree species distribution could cause significant changes in realized species niches, potentially resulting in the loss of ecotonal species as well as the formation on novel assemblages of overlapping tree species. In an effort to gain a better understating of how the geographic distribution of tree species may respond to climate change, we model the potential future distribution of 50 different tree species across 70 million ha in the Great Basin, USA. This is achieved by leveraging a species realized niche model based on non-parametric analysis of species occurrences across climatic, topographic, and edaphic variables. Spatially explicit, high spatial resolution (30 m) climate variables (e.g., precipitation, and minimum, maximum, and mean temperature) and associated climate indices were generated on an annual basis between 1981-2010 by integrating climate station data with digital elevation data (Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission (SRTM) data) in a thin plate spline interpolation algorithm (ANUSPLIN). Bioclimate models of species niches in in the cotemporary period and three following 30 year periods were then generated by integrating the climate variables, soil data, and CMIP 5 general circulation model projections. Our results suggest that local scale contemporary variations in species realized niches across space are influenced by edaphic and topographic variables as well as climatic variables. The local variability in soil properties and topographic variability across space also affect the species responses to climate change through time and potential formation of species assemblages in future. The results presented here in will aid in the development of adaptive forest management techniques aimed at mitigating negative impacts of climate change on forest composition, structure, and function.

Soil moisture and soil temperature variability among three plant communities in a High Arctic Lake Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, M. L.; Konkel, J.; Welker, J. M.; Schaeffer, S. M.

2017-12-01

Soil moisture and soil temperature are critical to plant community distribution and soil carbon cycle processes in High Arctic tundra. As environmental drivers of soil biochemical processes, the predictability of soil moisture and soil temperature by vegetation zone in High Arctic landscapes has significant implications for the use of satellite imagery and vegetation distribution maps to estimate of soil gas flux rates. During the 2017 growing season, we monitored soil moisture and soil temperature weekly at 48 sites in dry tundra, moist tundra, and wet grassland vegetation zones in a High Arctic lake basin. Soil temperature in all three communities reflected fluctuations in air temperature throughout the season. Mean soil temperature was highest in the dry tundra community at 10.5±0.6ºC, however, did not differ between moist tundra and wet grassland communities (2.7±0.6 and 3.1±0.5ºC, respectively). Mean volumetric soil moisture differed significantly among all three plant communities with the lowest and highest soil moisture measured in the dry tundra and wet grassland (30±1.2 and 65±2.7%), respectively. For all three communities, soil moisture was highest during the early season snow melt. Soil moisture in wet grassland remained high with no significant change throughout the season, while significant drying occurred in dry tundra. The most significant change in soil moisture was measured in moist tundra, ranging from 61 to 35%. Our results show different gradients in soil moisture variability within each plant community where: 1) soil moisture was lowest in dry tundra with little change, 2) highest in wet grassland with negligible change, and 3) variable in moist tundra which slowly dried but remained moist. Consistently high soil moisture in wet grassland restricts this plant community to areas with no significant drying during summer. The moist tundra occupies the intermediary areas between wet grassland and dry tundra and experiences the widest range of soil moisture variability. As climate projections predict wetter summers in the High Arctic, expansion of areas with seasonally inundated soils and increased soil moisture variability could result in an expansion of wet grassland and moist tundra communities with a commensurate decrease in dry tundra area.

Does weather shape rodents? Climate related changes in morphology of two heteromyid species

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolf, Mosheh; Friggens, Michael; Salazar-Bravo, Jorge

2009-01-01

Geographical variation in morphometric characters in heteromyid rodents has often correlated with climate gradients. Here, we used the long-term database of rodents trapped in the Sevilleta National Wildlife Refuge in New Mexico, USA to test whether significant annual changes in external morphometric characters are observed in a region with large variations in temperature and precipitation. We looked at the relationships between multiple temperature and precipitation variables and a number of morphological traits (body mass, body, tail, hind leg, and ear length) for two heteromyid rodents, Dipodomys merriami and Perognathus flavescens. Because these rodents can live multiple years in the wild, the climate variables for the year of the capture and the previous 2 years were included in the analyses. Using multiple linear regressions, we found that all of our morphometric traits, with the exception of tail length in D. merriami, had a significant relationship with one or more of the climate variables used. Our results demonstrate that effects of climate change on morphological traits occur over short periods, even in noninsular mammal populations. It is unclear, though, whether these changes are the result of morphological plasticity or natural selection.

Mechanisms for improved running economy in beginner runners.

PubMed

Moore, Isabel S; Jones, Andrew M; Dixon, Sharon J

2012-09-01

Controversy surrounds whether running mechanics make good predictors of running economy (RE) with little known about the development of an economical running gait. The aim of this study was to identify if mechanical or physiological variables changed during 10 wk of running in beginners and whether these changes could account for any change in RE. A 10-wk running program (10 wkRP) was completed by 10 female beginner runners. A bilateral three-dimensional kinematic and kinetic analysis, in addition to RE and lower body flexibility measurements, was performed before and after the 10 wkRP. The Balke-Ware graded walking exercise test was performed before and after the 10 wkRP to determine VO2max. Seven kinematic and kinetic variables significantly changed from before to after training, in addition to a significant decrease in calf flexibility (27.3° ± 6.3° vs 23.9° ± 5.6°, P < 0.05). A significant improvement was seen in RE (224 ± 24 vs 205 ± 27 mL · kg(-1) · km(-1), P < 0.05) and treadmill time to exhaustion (16.4 ± 3.2 vs 17.3 ± 2.8 min, P < 0.05); however, VO2max remained unchanged from before to after training (34.7 ± 5.1 vs 34.3 ± 5.6 mL · kg(-1) · min(-1)). Stepwise regression analysis showed three kinematic variables to explain 94.3% of the variance in change in RE. They were a less extended knee at toe off (P = 0.004), peak dorsiflexion occurring later in stance (P = 0.001), and a slower eversion velocity at touchdown (P = 0.042). The magnitude of change for each variable was 1.5%, 4.7%, and 34.1%, respectively. These results show that beginner runners naturally developed their running gait as they became more economical runners.

South Asian climate change at the end of urban Harappan (Indus valley) civilization and mechanisms of Holocene monsoon variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Staubwasser, M.; Sirocko, F.; Erlenkeuser, H.; Grootes, P. M.; Segl, M.

2003-04-01

Planktonic oxygen isotope ratios from the well-dated laminated sediment core 63KA off the river Indus delta are presented. The record reveals significant climate changes in the south Asian monsoon system throughout the Holocene. The most prominent event of the early-mid Holocene occurred after 8.4 ka BP and is within dating error of the GISP/GRIP event centered at 8.2 ka BP. The late Holocene is generally more variable and the largest change of the entire Holocene occurred at 4.2 ka BP. This event is concordant with the end of urban Harappan civilization in the Indus valley. Opposing isotopic trends across the northern Arabian Sea surface indicate a reduction in Indus river discharge at that time. Consequently, sustained drought may have initiated the archaeologically recorded interval of southeastward habitat tracking within the Harappan cultural domain. The hemispheric significance of the 4.2 ka BP event is evident from concordant climate change in the eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East. The remainder of the late Holocene shows drought cycles of approximately 700 years that are coherent with the evolution of cosmogenic radiocarbon production rates in the atmosphere. This suggests that solar variability is one fundamental cause behind late Holocene rainfall changes over south Asia.

Spatial and Temporal Monitoring of Dissolved Oxygen in NJ Coastal Waters using AUVs (Presentation)

EPA Science Inventory

The coastal ocean is a highly variable system with processes that have significant implications on the hydrographic and oxygen characteristics of the water column. The spatial and temporal variability of these fields can cause dramatic changes to water quality and in turn the h...

Historical Compilation and Georeferencing of Dengue and Chikungunya outbreak data for Disease Modeling

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The risk of vector-borne disease spread is increasing due to significant changes and variability in the global climate and increasing global travel and trade. Understanding the relationships between climate variability and disease outbreak patterns are critical to the design and construction of pred...

A comparative modeling analysis of multiscale temporal variability of rainfall in Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samuel, Jos M.; Sivapalan, Murugesu

2008-07-01

The effects of long-term natural climate variability and human-induced climate change on rainfall variability have become the focus of much concern and recent research efforts. In this paper, we present the results of a comparative analysis of observed multiscale temporal variability of rainfall in the Perth, Newcastle, and Darwin regions of Australia. This empirical and stochastic modeling analysis explores multiscale rainfall variability, i.e., ranging from short to long term, including within-storm patterns, and intra-annual, interannual, and interdecadal variabilities, using data taken from each of these regions. The analyses investigated how storm durations, interstorm periods, and average storm rainfall intensities differ for different climate states and demonstrated significant differences in this regard between the three selected regions. In Perth, the average storm intensity is stronger during La Niña years than during El Niño years, whereas in Newcastle and Darwin storm duration is longer during La Niña years. Increase of either storm duration or average storm intensity is the cause of higher average annual rainfall during La Niña years as compared to El Niño years. On the other hand, within-storm variability does not differ significantly between different ENSO states in all three locations. In the case of long-term rainfall variability, the statistical analyses indicated that in Newcastle the long-term rainfall pattern reflects the variability of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) index, whereas in Perth and Darwin the long-term variability exhibits a step change in average annual rainfall (up in Darwin and down in Perth) which occurred around 1970. The step changes in Perth and Darwin and the switch in IPO states in Newcastle manifested differently in the three study regions in terms of changes in the annual number of rainy days or the average daily rainfall intensity or both. On the basis of these empirical data analyses, a stochastic rainfall time series model was developed that incorporates the entire range of multiscale variabilities observed in each region, including within-storm, intra-annual, interannual, and interdecadal variability. Such ability to characterize, model, and synthetically generate realistic time series of rainfall intensities is essential for addressing many hydrological problems, including estimation of flood and drought frequencies, pesticide risk assessment, and landslide frequencies.

Accounting for multiple climate components when estimating climate change exposure and velocity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nadeau, Christopher P.; Fuller, Angela K.

2015-01-01

The effect of anthropogenic climate change on organisms will likely be related to climate change exposure and velocity at local and regional scales. However, common methods to estimate climate change exposure and velocity ignore important components of climate that are known to affect the ecology and evolution of organisms.We develop a novel index of climate change (climate overlap) that simultaneously estimates changes in the means, variation and correlation between multiple weather variables. Specifically, we estimate the overlap between multivariate normal probability distributions representing historical and current or projected future climates. We provide methods for estimating the statistical significance of climate overlap values and methods to estimate velocity using climate overlap.We show that climates have changed significantly across 80% of the continental United States in the last 32 years and that much of this change is due to changes in the variation and correlation between weather variables (two statistics that are rarely incorporated into climate change studies). We also show that projected future temperatures are predicted to be locally novel (<1·5% overlap) across most of the global land surface and that exposure is likely to be highest in areas with low historical climate variation. Last, we show that accounting for changes in the variation and correlation between multiple weather variables can dramatically affect velocity estimates; mean velocity estimates in the continental United States were between 3·1 and 19·0 km yr−1when estimated using climate overlap compared to 1·4 km yr−1 when estimated using traditional methods.Our results suggest that accounting for changes in the means, variation and correlation between multiple weather variables can dramatically affect estimates of climate change exposure and velocity. These climate components are known to affect the ecology and evolution of organisms, but are ignored by most measures of climate change. We conclude with a set of future directions and recommend future work to determine which measures of climate change exposure and velocity are most related to biological responses to climate change.

Identifying bird and reptile vulnerabilities to climate change in the southwestern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hatten, James R.; Giermakowski, J. Tomasz; Holmes, Jennifer A.; Nowak, Erika M.; Johnson, Matthew J.; Ironside, Kirsten E.; van Riper, Charles; Peters, Michael; Truettner, Charles; Cole, Kenneth L.

2016-07-06

Current and future breeding ranges of 15 bird and 16 reptile species were modeled in the Southwestern United States. Rather than taking a broad-scale, vulnerability-assessment approach, we created a species distribution model (SDM) for each focal species incorporating climatic, landscape, and plant variables. Baseline climate (1940–2009) was characterized with Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) data and future climate with global-circulation-model data under an A1B emission scenario. Climatic variables included monthly and seasonal temperature and precipitation; landscape variables included terrain ruggedness, soil type, and insolation; and plant variables included trees and shrubs commonly associated with a focal species. Not all species-distribution models contained a plant, but if they did, we included a built-in annual migration rate for more accurate plant-range projections in 2039 or 2099. We conducted a group meta-analysis to (1) determine how influential each variable class was when averaged across all species distribution models (birds or reptiles), and (2) identify the correlation among contemporary (2009) habitat fragmentation and biological attributes and future range projections (2039 or 2099). Projected changes in bird and reptile ranges varied widely among species, with one-third of the ranges predicted to expand and two-thirds predicted to contract. A group meta-analysis indicated that climatic variables were the most influential variable class when averaged across all models for both groups, followed by landscape and plant variables (birds), or plant and landscape variables (reptiles), respectively. The second part of the meta-analysis indicated that numerous contemporary habitat-fragmentation (for example, patch isolation) and biological-attribute (for example, clutch size, longevity) variables were significantly correlated with the magnitude of projected range changes for birds and reptiles. Patch isolation was a significant trans-specific driver of projected bird and reptile ranges, suggesting that strategic actions should focus on restoration and enhancement of habitat at local and regional scales to promote landscape connectivity and conservation of core areas.

Control conditions for footwear insole and orthotic research.

PubMed

Lewinson, Ryan T; Worobets, Jay T; Stefanyshyn, Darren J

2016-07-01

Footwear insoles/orthotics alter variables associated with musculoskeletal injury; however, their clinical effectiveness is inconclusive. One explanation for this is the possibility that control conditions may actually produce biomechanical changes that induce clinical responses. The purpose of this study was to compare insole/orthotic control conditions to identify if variables at the ground, ankle and knee that are associated with injury are altered relative to what participants would normally experience in their own shoes. Gait analysis was performed on 15 participants during walking and running while wearing (1) their own shoes, (2) #1 with a 3mm flat insole, (3) a standardized shoe, and (4) #3 with a 3mm flat insole, where external knee adduction moments, external knee adduction angular impulses, internal ankle inversion moments, and vertical ground reaction force loading rates were determined. Conditions 2-4 were expressed as percent changes relative to condition 1, and tests of proportions assessed if there were a significant number of individuals experiencing a biomechanically relevant change for each variable. Repeated-measures ANOVAs were used to identify group differences between conditions. The majority of movement-footwear-variable combinations contained a proportion of individuals experiencing biomechanically relevant changes compared to condition 1 that was significantly greater than the expected proportion of 20%. No systematic differences were found between conditions. This suggests that conditions 2-4 may alter biomechanics relative to baseline for many participants, but not in a consistent way across participants. It is recommended that participant's own footwear be used as control conditions in future trials where biomechanics are primary variables of interest. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Central Tropical Pacific Variability And ENSO Response To Changing Climate Boundary Conditions: Evidence From Individual Line Island Foraminifera

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rustic, G. T.; Polissar, P. J.; Ravelo, A. C.; White, S. M.

2017-12-01

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) plays a dominant role in Earth's climate variability. Paleoceanographic evidence suggests that ENSO has changed in the past, and these changes have been linked to large-scale climatic shifts. While a close relationship between ENSO evolution and climate boundary conditions has been predicted, testing these predictions remains challenging. These climate boundary conditions, including insolation, the mean surface temperature gradient of the tropical Pacific, global ice volume, and tropical thermocline depth, often co-vary and may work together to suppress or enhance the ocean-atmosphere feedbacks that drive ENSO variability. Furthermore, suitable paleo-archives spanning multiple climate states are sparse. We have aimed to test ENSO response to changing climate boundary conditions by generating new reconstructions of mixed-layer variability from sedimentary archives spanning the last three glacial-interglacial cycles from the Central Tropical Pacific Line Islands, where El Niño is strongly expressed. We analyzed Mg/Ca ratios from individual foraminifera to reconstruct mixed-layer variability at discrete time intervals representing combinations of climatic boundary conditions from the middle Holocene to Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 8. We observe changes in the mixed-layer temperature variability during MIS 5 and during the previous interglacial (MIS 7) showing significant reductions in ENSO amplitude. Differences in variability during glacial and interglacial intervals are also observed. Additionally, we reconstructed mixed-layer and thermocline conditions using multi-species Mg/Ca and stable isotope measurements to more fully characterize the state of the Central Tropical Pacific during these intervals. These reconstructions provide us with a unique view of Central Tropical Pacific variability and water-column structure at discrete intervals under varying boundary climate conditions with which to assess factors that shape ENSO variability.

Climate change and associated spatial heterogeneity of Pakistan: Empirical evidence using multidisciplinary approach.

PubMed

Ali, Ghaffar

2018-09-01

Climate change is a multidimensional phenomenon, which has various implications for the environment and socio-economic conditions of the people. Its effects are deeper in an agrarian economy which is susceptible to the vagaries of nature. Therefore, climate change directly impacts the society in different ways, and society must pay the cost. Focusing on this truth, the main objective of this research was to investigate the empirical changes and spatial heterogeneity in the climate of Pakistan in real terms using time series data. Climate change and variability in Pakistan, over time, were estimated from 1961 to 2014 using all the climate variables for the very first time. Several studies were available on climate change impacts, mitigation, and adaptation; however, it was difficult to observe exactly how much change occurred in which province and when. A multidisciplinary approach was utilized to estimate the absolute change through a combination of environmental, econometric, and remote sensing methods. Moreover, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was used to ascertain the extent of variability in climate change and information was digitalized through ground truthing. Results showed that the average temperature of Pakistan increased by 2°C between 1960 and 1987 and 4°C between 1988 and 2014, and R 2 was 0.978. The rate of temperature increased 0.09°C between 1960 and 2014. The mean annual precipitation of Pakistan increased by 478mm, and its R 2 were 0.34-0.64. The mean annual humidity of Pakistan increased by 2.94%, and the rate of humidity has been increased by 0.97% from 1988 to 2014. Notably, Sindh and Balochistan provinces have shown a significant spatial heterogeneity regarding the increase in precipitation. Statistically all variables are significant. This would serve as a baseline information for climate change-related studies in Pakistan and its application in different sectors. This would also serve the plant breeders and policymakers of the country. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effects of head-down bed rest on complex heart rate variability: Response to LBNP testing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goldberger, Ary L.; Mietus, Joseph E.; Rigney, David R.; Wood, Margie L.; Fortney, Suzanne M.

1994-01-01

Head-down bed rest is used to model physiological changes during spaceflight. We postulated that bed rest would decrease the degree of complex physiological heart rate variability. We analyzed continuous heart rate data from digitized Holter recordings in eight healthy female volunteers (age 28-34 yr) who underwent a 13-day 6 deg head-down bed rest study with serial lower body negative pressure (LBNP) trials. Heart rate variability was measured on a 4-min data sets using conventional time and frequency domain measures as well as with a new measure of signal 'complexity' (approximate entropy). Data were obtained pre-bed rest (control), during bed rest (day 4 and day 9 or 11), and 2 days post-bed rest (recovery). Tolerance to LBNP was significantly reduced on both bed rest days vs. pre-bed rest. Heart rate variability was assessed at peak LBNP. Heart rate approximate entropy was significantly decreased at day 4 and day 9 or 11, returning toward normal during recovery. Heart rate standard deviation and the ratio of high- to low-power frequency did not change significantly. We conclude that short-term bed rest is associated with a decrease in the complex variability of heart rate during LBNP testing in healthy young adult women. Measurement of heart rate complexity, using a method derived from nonlinear dynamics ('chaos theory'), may provide a sensitive marker of this loss of physiological variability, complementing conventional time and frequency domain statistical measures.

Terrestrial water cycle induced meridional overturning circulation variability over the Atlantic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsu, C. W.; Velicogna, I.

2016-12-01

Terrestrial water cycle has a significant role in the long-term changes of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). With the fresh water input over the ocean from the river runoff or ice melting at the higher latitude, AMOC transport has been predicted to slow down at the end of the century. We compare ocean bottom pressure measured from the GRACE satellite data with the conventional density derived transport observations from the RAPID MOC/MOCHA array to study the impact of the terrestrial water cycle on the seasonal and inter annual AMOC variability detected by the RAPID MOC/MOCHA array observations. We propose that the observed short-term variability is due to coupling of wind driven and terrestrial water cycle changes. We show that the proposed mechanism explains a significant portion of the transport variance and we present new possible mechanism that can explain the residual transport signal in AMOC.

Night-to-Night Sleep Variability in Older Adults With Chronic Insomnia: Mediators and Moderators in a Randomized Controlled Trial of Brief Behavioral Therapy (BBT-I)

PubMed Central

Chan, Wai Sze; Williams, Jacob; Dautovich, Natalie D.; McNamara, Joseph P.H.; Stripling, Ashley; Dzierzewski, Joseph M.; Berry, Richard B.; McCoy, Karin J.M.; McCrae, Christina S.

2017-01-01

Study Objectives: Sleep variability is a clinically significant variable in understanding and treating insomnia in older adults. The current study examined changes in sleep variability in the course of brief behavioral therapy for insomnia (BBT-I) in older adults who had chronic insomnia. Additionally, the current study examined the mediating mechanisms underlying reductions of sleep variability and the moderating effects of baseline sleep variability on treatment responsiveness. Methods: Sixty-two elderly participants were randomly assigned to either BBT-I or self-monitoring and attention control (SMAC). Sleep was assessed by sleep diaries and actigraphy from baseline to posttreatment and at 3-month follow-up. Mixed models were used to examine changes in sleep variability (within-person standard deviations of weekly sleep parameters) and the hypothesized mediation and moderation effects. Results: Variabilities in sleep diary-assessed sleep onset latency (SOL) and actigraphy-assessed total sleep time (TST) significantly decreased in BBT-I compared to SMAC (Pseudo R2 = .12, .27; P = .018, .008). These effects were mediated by reductions in bedtime and wake time variability and time in bed. Significant time × group × baseline sleep variability interactions on sleep outcomes indicated that participants who had higher baseline sleep variability were more responsive to BBT-I; their actigraphy-assessed TST, SOL, and sleep efficiency improved to a greater degree (Pseudo R2 = .15 to .66; P < .001 to .044). Conclusions: BBT-I is effective in reducing sleep variability in older adults who have chronic insomnia. Increased consistency in bedtime and wake time and decreased time in bed mediate reductions of sleep variability. Baseline sleep variability may serve as a marker of high treatment responsiveness to BBT-I. Clinical Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov, Identifier: NCT02967185 Citation: Chan WS, Williams J, Dautovich ND, McNamara JP, Stripling A, Dzierzewski JM, Berry RB, McCoy KJ, McCrae CS. Night-to-night sleep variability in older adults with chronic insomnia: mediators and moderators in a randomized controlled trial of brief behavioral therapy (BBT-I). J Clin Sleep Med. 2017;13(11):1243–1254. PMID:28992829

Estimating verbal fluency and naming ability from the test of premorbid functioning and demographic variables: Regression equations derived from a regional UK sample.

PubMed

Jenkinson, Toni-Marie; Muncer, Steven; Wheeler, Miranda; Brechin, Don; Evans, Stephen

2018-06-01

Neuropsychological assessment requires accurate estimation of an individual's premorbid cognitive abilities. Oral word reading tests, such as the test of premorbid functioning (TOPF), and demographic variables, such as age, sex, and level of education, provide a reasonable indication of premorbid intelligence, but their ability to predict other related cognitive abilities is less well understood. This study aimed to develop regression equations, based on the TOPF and demographic variables, to predict scores on tests of verbal fluency and naming ability. A sample of 119 healthy adults provided demographic information and were tested using the TOPF, FAS, animal naming test (ANT), and graded naming test (GNT). Multiple regression analyses, using the TOPF and demographics as predictor variables, were used to estimate verbal fluency and naming ability test scores. Change scores and cases of significant impairment were calculated for two clinical samples with diagnosed neurological conditions (TBI and meningioma) using the method in Knight, McMahon, Green, and Skeaff (). Demographic variables provided a significant contribution to the prediction of all verbal fluency and naming ability test scores; however, adding TOPF score to the equation considerably improved prediction beyond that afforded by demographic variables alone. The percentage of variance accounted for by demographic variables and/or TOPF score varied from 19 per cent (FAS), 28 per cent (ANT), and 41 per cent (GNT). Change scores revealed significant differences in performance in the clinical groups, particularity the TBI group. Demographic variables, particularly education level, and scores on the TOPF should be taken into consideration when interpreting performance on tests of verbal fluency and naming ability. © 2017 The British Psychological Society.

Spatio-temporal atmospheric circulation variability around the Antarctic Peninsula based on hemispheric circulation modes and weather types

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wachter, Paul; Beck, Christoph; Philipp, Andreas; Jacobeit, Jucundus; Höppner, Kathrin

2017-04-01

Large parts of the Polar Regions are affected by a warming trend associated with substantial changes in the cryosphere. In Antarctica this positive trend pattern is most dominant in the western part of the continent and on the Antarctic Peninsula (AP). An important driving mechanism of temperature variability and trends in this region is the atmospheric circulation. Changes in atmospheric circulation modes and frequencies of circulation types have major impacts on temperature characteristics at a certain station or region. We present results of a statistical downscaling study focused on AP temperature variability showing both results of large-scale atmospheric circulation modes and regional weather type classifications derived from monthly and daily gridded reanalysis data sets. In order to investigate spatial trends and variabilities of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), we analyze spatio-temporally resolved SAM-pattern maps from 1979 to 2015. First results show dominant multi-annual to decadal pattern variabilities which can be directly linked to temperature variabilities at the Antarctic Peninsula. A sub-continental to regional view on the influence of atmospheric circulation on AP temperature variability is given by the analysis of weather type classifications (WTC). With this analysis we identify significant changes in the frequency of occurrence of highly temperature-relevant circulation patterns. The investigated characteristics of weather type frequencies can also be related to the identified changes of the SAM.

Effects of HRV-Guided vs. Predetermined Block Training on Performance, HRV and Serum Hormones.

PubMed

Nuuttila, Olli-Pekka; Nikander, Aku; Polomoshnov, Dmitry; Laukkanen, Jari Antero; Häkkinen, Keijo

2017-11-01

The aim of this study was to compare heart rate variability -guided (HRVG) and predetermined (PD) block periodization of high intensity aerobic training (HIT). Endurance performance, neuromuscular performance, heart rate variability (HRV) and serum hormone concentrations were measured before, in the middle and after the 8-week training period in 24 endurance trained males. Both groups improved significantly maximal treadmill velocity (V max ) (p<0.001) and 3000 m running performance (HRVG; p<0.001 and PD; p=0.001). The relative changes in V max and countermovement jump were significantly greater in HRVG (p<0.05). Nocturnal heart rate decreased in both groups (p<0.01), but HRV (RMSSD, LF and TP) increased significantly only in HRVG (p<0.05). The significant increase in serum testosterone concentration was observed from mid to post in HRVG (p<0.05). Significant correlations were found between individual V max changes and absolute serum testosterone levels. Individual baseline level of HF correlated significantly with V max changes in PD. Block periodization of HIT seems to be an effective way to improve endurance and running performance in already endurance trained males. Based on training induced increases in endurance and neuromuscular performance combined with significant changes in HRV and serum testosterone levels observed in HRVG, individually HRV -guided block training may be more optimal compared to predetermined training. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

A further assessment of vegetation feedback on decadal Sahel rainfall variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kucharski, Fred; Zeng, Ning; Kalnay, Eugenia

2013-03-01

The effect of vegetation feedback on decadal-scale Sahel rainfall variability is analyzed using an ensemble of climate model simulations in which the atmospheric general circulation model ICTPAGCM ("SPEEDY") is coupled to the dynamic vegetation model VEGAS to represent feedbacks from surface albedo change and evapotranspiration, forced externally by observed sea surface temperature (SST) changes. In the control experiment, where the full vegetation feedback is included, the ensemble is consistent with the observed decadal rainfall variability, with a forced component 60 % of the observed variability. In a sensitivity experiment where climatological vegetation cover and albedo are prescribed from the control experiment, the ensemble of simulations is not consistent with the observations because of strongly reduced amplitude of decadal rainfall variability, and the forced component drops to 35 % of the observed variability. The decadal rainfall variability is driven by SST forcing, but significantly enhanced by land-surface feedbacks. Both, local evaporation and moisture flux convergence changes are important for the total rainfall response. Also the internal decadal variability across the ensemble members (not SST-forced) is much stronger in the control experiment compared with the one where vegetation cover and albedo are prescribed. It is further shown that this positive vegetation feedback is physically related to the albedo feedback, supporting the Charney hypothesis.

Plausible Effect of Weather on Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation with a Coupled General Circulation Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Zedong; Wan, Xiuquan

2018-04-01

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a vital component of the global ocean circulation and the heat engine of the climate system. Through the use of a coupled general circulation model, this study examines the role of synoptic systems on the AMOC and presents evidence that internally generated high-frequency, synoptic-scale weather variability in the atmosphere could play a significant role in maintaining the overall strength and variability of the AMOC, thereby affecting climate variability and change. Results of a novel coupling technique show that the strength and variability of the AMOC are greatly reduced once the synoptic weather variability is suppressed in the coupled model. The strength and variability of the AMOC are closely linked to deep convection events at high latitudes, which could be strongly affected by the weather variability. Our results imply that synoptic weather systems are important in driving the AMOC and its variability. Thus, interactions between atmospheric weather variability and AMOC may be an important feedback mechanism of the global climate system and need to be taken into consideration in future climate change studies.

Aerobic Exercise Training and Arterial Changes in African-Americans versus Caucasians

PubMed Central

Ranadive, Sushant M.; Yan, Huimin; Lane, Abbi D.; Kappus, Rebecca M.; Cook, Marc D.; Sun, Peng; Harvey, Idethia; Ploutz-Synder, Robert; Woods, Jeffrey A.; Wilund, Kenneth R.; Fernhall, Bo

2015-01-01

African-Americans (AA) have increased carotid artery intima-media thickness and decreased vascular function compared to their Caucasian (CA) peers. Aerobic exercise prevents and potentially reverses arterial dysfunction. Purpose The purpose of this study was to examine the effect of 8 weeks of moderate-high intensity aerobic training in young healthy sedentary AA and CA men and women. Methods Sixty-four healthy volunteers (men = 28, women = 36) with mean age = 24 underwent measures of arterial structure, function and blood pressure variables at baseline, post-4 week control period and 8 weeks post-training. Results There was a significant increase in VO2peak amongst both groups post exercise training. Brachial systolic blood pressure decreased significantly following control period in both groups but not following exercise training. Carotid pulse pressure decreased significantly in both groups post exercise training as compared to baseline. There was no change in any of the other blood pressure variables. AAs had a higher intima-media thickness at baseline and post-control period, but significantly decreased following exercise training compared to CAs. AAs had significantly lower baseline forearm blood flow and RH compared to CAs, but exercise training had no effect on these variables. There was no significant difference in arterial stiffness (cPWV) and wave-reflection (AIx) between the two groups at any time point. Conclusions This is the first study to show that, 8 weeks of aerobic exercise training causes significant improvement in the arterial structure in young, healthy AAs, making it comparable to the CAs and with minimal effects on blood pressure variables. PMID:26225767

Aerobic Exercise Training and Arterial Changes in African Americans versus Caucasians.

PubMed

Ranadive, Sushant M; Yan, Huimin; Lane, Abbi D; Kappus, Rebecca M; Cook, Marc D; Sun, Peng; Harvey, Idethia; Ploutz-Synder, Robert; Woods, Jeffrey A; Wilund, Kenneth R; Fernhall, B O

2016-01-01

African Americans (AA) have increased carotid artery intima-media thickness and decreased vascular function compared with their Caucasian (CA) peers. Aerobic exercise prevents and potentially reverses arterial dysfunction. The purpose of this study was to examine the effect of 8 wk of moderate- to high-intensity aerobic training in young healthy sedentary AA and CA men and women. Sixty-four healthy volunteers (men, 28; women, 36) with mean age 24 yr underwent measures of arterial structure, function, and blood pressure (BP) variables at baseline, after the 4-wk control period, and 8 wk after training. There was a significant increase in VO2peak among both groups after exercise training. Brachial systolic BP decreased significantly after the control period in both groups but not after exercise training. Carotid pulse pressure decreased significantly in both groups after exercise training as compared with that in baseline. There was no change in any of the other BP variables. AA had higher intima-media thickness at baseline and after the control period but it significantly decreased after exercise training compared with that of CA. AA had significantly lower baseline forearm blood flow and reactive hyperemia compared with those of CA, but exercise training had no effect on these variables. There was no significant difference in arterial stiffness (central pulse wave velocity) and wave-reflection (augmentation index) between the two groups at any time point. This is the first study to show that 8 wk of aerobic exercise training causes significant improvement in the arterial structure in young, healthy AA, making it comparable with the CA and with minimal effects on BP variables.

Identifying Significant Changes in Cerebrovascular Reactivity to Carbon Dioxide.

PubMed

Sobczyk, O; Crawley, A P; Poublanc, J; Sam, K; Mandell, D M; Mikulis, D J; Duffin, J; Fisher, J A

2016-05-01

Changes in cerebrovascular reactivity can be used to assess disease progression and response to therapy but require discrimination of pathology from normal test-to-test variability. Such variability is due to variations in methodology, technology, and physiology with time. With uniform test conditions, our aim was to determine the test-to-test variability of cerebrovascular reactivity in healthy subjects and in patients with known cerebrovascular disease. Cerebrovascular reactivity was the ratio of the blood oxygen level-dependent MR imaging response divided by the change in carbon dioxide stimulus. Two standardized cerebrovascular reactivity tests were conducted at 3T in 15 healthy men (36.7 ± 16.1 years of age) within a 4-month period and were coregistered into standard space to yield voxelwise mean cerebrovascular reactivity interval difference measures, composing a reference interval difference atlas. Cerebrovascular reactivity interval difference maps were prepared for 11 male patients. For each patient, the test-retest difference of each voxel was scored statistically as z-values of the corresponding voxel mean difference in the reference atlas and then color-coded and superimposed on the anatomic images to create cerebrovascular reactivity interval difference z-maps. There were no significant test-to-test differences in cerebrovascular reactivity in either gray or white matter (mean gray matter, P = .431; mean white matter, P = .857; paired t test) in the healthy cohort. The patient cerebrovascular reactivity interval difference z-maps indicated regions where cerebrovascular reactivity increased or decreased and the probability that the changes were significant. Accounting for normal test-to-test differences in cerebrovascular reactivity enables the assessment of significant changes in disease status (stability, progression, or regression) in patients with time. © 2016 by American Journal of Neuroradiology.

Long term variability of the annual hydrological regime and sensitivity to temperature phase shifts in Saxony/Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Renner, M.; Bernhofer, C.

2011-01-01

The timing of the seasons strongly effects ecosystems and human activities. Recently, there is increasing evidence of changes in the timing of the seasons, such as earlier spring seasons detected in phenological records, advanced seasonal timing of surface temperature, earlier snow melt or streamflow timing. For water resources management there is a need to quantitatively describe the variability in the timing of hydrological regimes and to understand how climatic changes control the seasonal water budget of river basins on the regional scale. In this study, changes of the annual cycle of hydrological variables are analysed for 27 river basins in Saxony/Germany. Thereby monthly series of basin runoff ratios, the ratio of runoff and basin precipitation are investigated for changes and variability of their annual periodicity over the period 1930-2009. Approximating the annual cycle by the means of harmonic functions gave acceptable results, while only two parameters, phase and amplitude, are required. It has been found that the annual phase of runoff ratio, representing the timing of the hydrological regime, is subject to considerable year-to-year variability, being concurrent with basins in similar hydro-climatic conditions. Two distinct basin classes have been identified, whereby basin elevation has been found to be the delimiting factor. An increasing importance of snow on the basin water balance with elevation is apparent and mainly governs the temporal variability of the annual timing of hydrological regimes. Further there is evidence of coincident changes in trend direction (change points in 1971 and 1988) in snow melt influenced basins. In these basins the timing of the runoff ratio is significantly correlated with the timing of temperature, and effects on runoff by temperature phase changes are even amplified. Interestingly, temperature effects may explain the low frequent variability of the second change point until today. However, the first change point can not be explained by temperature alone and other causes have to be considered.

Topography alters tree growth–climate relationships in a semi-arid forested catchment

DOE PAGES

Adams, Hallie R.; Barnard, Holly R.; Loomis, Alexander K.

2014-11-26

Topography and climate play an integral role in the spatial variability and annual dynamics of aboveground carbon sequestration. Despite knowledge of vegetation–climate–topography relationships on the landscape and hillslope scales, little is known about the influence of complex terrain coupled with hydrologic and topoclimatic variation on tree growth and physiology at the catchment scale. Climate change predictions for the semi-arid, western United States include increased temperatures, more frequent and extreme drought events, and decreases in snowpack, all of which put forests at risk of drought induced mortality and enhanced susceptibility to disturbance events. In this study, we determine how species-specific treemore » growth patterns and water use efficiency respond to interannual climate variability and how this response varies with topographic position. We found that Pinus contorta and Pinus ponderosa both show significant decreases in growth with water-limiting climate conditions, but complex terrain mediates this response by controlling moisture conditions in variable topoclimates. Foliar carbon isotope analyses show increased water use efficiency during drought for Pinus contorta, but indicate no significant difference in water use efficiency of Pinus ponderosa between a drought year and a non-drought year. The responses of the two pine species to climate indicate that semi-arid forests are especially susceptible to changes and risks posed by climate change and that topographic variability will likely play a significant role in determining the future vegetation patterns of semi-arid systems.« less

Motivational stage of change in young patients undergoing day treatment for eating disorders.

PubMed

Bustin, Lisa A; Lane-Loney, Susan E; Hollenbeak, Christopher S; Ornstein, Rollyn M

2013-01-01

The objective was to determine whether motivation to change is significantly altered over the course of partial hospitalization in children and adolescents with eating disorders (EDs). This study was a retrospective chart review of 30 sets of adolescents and their parents who completed the Motivational Stage of Change for Adolescents Recovering from an Eating Disorder (MSCARED) at both intake and discharge from partial hospitalization. The main outcome variables included change in stage of change (SOC) for patients and their parents. Secondary outcomes included correlations between SOC and other baseline variables, as well as changes in SOC and psychological test scores. The SOC was significantly higher at discharge than at intake in both the patients and parents, but the two groups were not in agreement at discharge. The change in the SOC was correlated with change in Children's Eating Attitudes Test scores. Assessment of decisional balance showed correlations with SOC. Age, change in weight, and psychiatric diagnoses did not correlate with initial SOC. The MSCARED may be a useful tool for monitoring young ED patients' psychological improvements with day treatment. Initial SOC is not predictive of treatment outcomes.

Climatic change controls productivity variation in global grasslands

PubMed Central

Gao, Qingzhu; Zhu, Wenquan; Schwartz, Mark W.; Ganjurjav, Hasbagan; Wan, Yunfan; Qin, Xiaobo; Ma, Xin; Williamson, Matthew A.; Li, Yue

2016-01-01

Detection and identification of the impacts of climate change on ecosystems have been core issues in climate change research in recent years. In this study, we compared average annual values of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) with theoretical net primary productivity (NPP) values based on temperature and precipitation to determine the effect of historic climate change on global grassland productivity from 1982 to 2011. Comparison of trends in actual productivity (NDVI) with climate-induced potential productivity showed that the trends in average productivity in nearly 40% of global grassland areas have been significantly affected by climate change. The contribution of climate change to variability in grassland productivity was 15.2–71.2% during 1982–2011. Climate change contributed significantly to long-term trends in grassland productivity mainly in North America, central Eurasia, central Africa, and Oceania; these regions will be more sensitive to future climate change impacts. The impacts of climate change on variability in grassland productivity were greater in the Western Hemisphere than the Eastern Hemisphere. Confirmation of the observed trends requires long-term controlled experiments and multi-model ensembles to reduce uncertainties and explain mechanisms. PMID:27243565

White Matter Integrity and Treatment-Based Change in Speech Performance in Minimally Verbal Children with Autism Spectrum Disorder.

PubMed

Chenausky, Karen; Kernbach, Julius; Norton, Andrea; Schlaug, Gottfried

2017-01-01

We investigated the relationship between imaging variables for two language/speech-motor tracts and speech fluency variables in 10 minimally verbal (MV) children with autism. Specifically, we tested whether measures of white matter integrity-fractional anisotropy (FA) of the arcuate fasciculus (AF) and frontal aslant tract (FAT)-were related to change in percent syllable-initial consonants correct, percent items responded to, and percent syllable insertion errors (from best baseline to post 25 treatment sessions). Twenty-three MV children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) received Auditory-Motor Mapping Training (AMMT), an intonation-based treatment to improve fluency in spoken output, and we report on seven who received a matched control treatment. Ten of the AMMT participants were able to undergo a magnetic resonance imaging study at baseline; their performance on baseline speech production measures is compared to that of the other two groups. No baseline differences were found between groups. A canonical correlation analysis (CCA) relating FA values for left- and right-hemisphere AF and FAT to speech production measures showed that FA of the left AF and right FAT were the largest contributors to the synthetic independent imaging-related variable. Change in percent syllable-initial consonants correct and percent syllable-insertion errors were the largest contributors to the synthetic dependent fluency-related variable. Regression analyses showed that FA values in left AF significantly predicted change in percent syllable-initial consonants correct, no FA variables significantly predicted change in percent items responded to, and FA of right FAT significantly predicted change in percent syllable-insertion errors. Results are consistent with previously identified roles for the AF in mediating bidirectional mapping between articulation and acoustics, and the FAT in its relationship to speech initiation and fluency. They further suggest a division of labor between the hemispheres, implicating the left hemisphere in accuracy of speech production and the right hemisphere in fluency in this population. Changes in response rate are interpreted as stemming from factors other than the integrity of these two fiber tracts. This study is the first to document the existence of a subgroup of MV children who experience increases in syllable- insertion errors as their speech develops in response to therapy.

Transverse Motion of a Particle with an Oscillating Charge and Variable Mass in a Magnetic Field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alisultanov, Z. Z.; Ragimkhanov, G. B.

2018-03-01

The problem of motion of a particle with an oscillating electric charge and variable mass in an uniform magnetic field has been solved. Three laws of mass variation have been considered: linear growth, oscillations, and stepwise growth. Analytical expressions for the particle velocity at different time dependences of the particle mass are obtained. It is established that simultaneous consideration of changes in the mass and charge leads to a significant change in the particle trajectory.

Human Responses to Climate Variability: The Case of South Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oppenheimer, M.; Licker, R.; Mastrorillo, M.; Bohra-Mishra, P.; Estes, L. D.; Cai, R.

2014-12-01

Climate variability has been associated with a range of societal and individual outcomes including migration, violent conflict, changes in labor productivity, and health impacts. Some of these may be direct responses to changes in mean temperature or precipitation or extreme events, such as displacement of human populations by tropical cyclones. Others may be mediated by a variety of biological, social, or ecological factors such as migration in response to long-term changes in crops yields. Research is beginning to elucidate and distinguish the many channels through which climate variability may influence human behavior (ranging from the individual to the collective, societal level) in order to better understand how to improve resilience in the face of current variability as well as future climate change. Using a variety of data sets from South Africa, we show how climate variability has influenced internal (within country) migration in recent history. We focus on South Africa as it is a country with high levels of internal migration and dramatic temperature and precipitation changes projected for the 21st century. High poverty rates and significant levels of rain-fed, smallholder agriculture leave large portions of South Africa's population base vulnerable to future climate change. In this study, we utilize two complementary statistical models - one micro-level model, driven by individual and household level survey data, and one macro-level model, driven by national census statistics. In both models, we consider the effect of climate on migration both directly (with gridded climate reanalysis data) and indirectly (with agricultural production statistics). With our historical analyses of climate variability, we gain insights into how the migration decisions of South Africans may be influenced by future climate change. We also offer perspective on the utility of micro and macro level approaches in the study of climate change and human migration.

Transportation planning, policy and climate change : making the long-term connection.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-03-01

Climate change and variability will have significant impacts on the future mobility of the population in this : country. Previous research has found that the transportation sector is not considering adaptation as a : solution to these potential impac...

Influence of snow cover changes on surface radiation and heat balance based on the WRF model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Lingxue; Liu, Tingxiang; Bu, Kun; Yang, Jiuchun; Chang, Liping; Zhang, Shuwen

2017-10-01

The snow cover extent in mid-high latitude areas of the Northern Hemisphere has significantly declined corresponding to the global warming, especially since the 1970s. Snow-climate feedbacks play a critical role in regulating the global radiation balance and influencing surface heat flux exchange. However, the degree to which snow cover changes affect the radiation budget and energy balance on a regional scale and the difference between snow-climate and land use/cover change (LUCC)-climate feedbacks have been rarely studied. In this paper, we selected Heilongjiang Basin, where the snow cover has changed obviously, as our study area and used the WRF model to simulate the influences of snow cover changes on the surface radiation budget and heat balance. In the scenario simulation, the localized surface parameter data improved the accuracy by 10 % compared with the control group. The spatial and temporal analysis of the surface variables showed that the net surface radiation, sensible heat flux, Bowen ratio, temperature and percentage of snow cover were negatively correlated and that the ground heat flux and latent heat flux were positively correlated with the percentage of snow cover. The spatial analysis also showed that a significant relationship existed between the surface variables and land cover types, which was not obviously as that for snow cover changes. Finally, six typical study areas were selected to quantitatively analyse the influence of land cover types beneath the snow cover on heat absorption and transfer, which showed that when the land was snow covered, the conversion of forest to farmland can dramatically influence the net radiation and other surface variables, whereas the snow-free land showed significantly reduced influence. Furthermore, compared with typical land cover changes, e.g., the conversion of forest into farmland, the influence of snow cover changes on net radiation and sensible heat flux were 60 % higher than that of land cover changes, indicating the importance of snow cover changes in the surface-atmospheric feedback system.

Radiation changes in vaginal and cervical cytology in carcinoma of the cervix uteri

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gupta, S.; Gupta, Y.N.; Sanyal, B.

1982-02-01

Radiation changes are observed in all postirradiated smears of squamous cell carcinoma of the cervix from 56 females, although to a variable degree. After 1 year the changes subside gradually. A high cornification index is a good guide for recurrence. The significance of dysplastic cells as premonition for recurrence is debatable. The presence of malignant cells at any stage was considered of grave significance, and indicates poor radiation response or recurrence.

The Impact of Retardance Pattern Variability on Nerve Fiber Layer Measurements over Time Using GDx with Variable and Enhanced Corneal Compensation

PubMed Central

Grewal, Dilraj S.; Sehi, Mitra; Cook, Richard J.

2011-01-01

Purpose. To examine the impact of retardance pattern variability on retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) measurements over time using scanning laser polarimetry with variable (GDxVCC) and enhanced corneal compensation (GDxECC; both by Carl Zeiss Meditec, Inc., Dublin, CA). Methods. Glaucoma suspect and glaucomatous eyes with 4 years of follow-up participating in the Advanced Imaging in Glaucoma Study were prospectively enrolled. All eyes underwent standard automated perimetry (SAP), GDxVCC, and GDxECC imaging every 6 months. SAP progression was determined with point-wise linear regression analysis of SAP sensitivity values. Typical scan score (TSS) values were extracted as a measure of retardance image quality; an atypical retardation pattern (ARP) was defined as TSS < 80. TSS fluctuation over time was measured using three parameters: change in TSS from baseline, absolute difference (maximum minus minimum TSS value), and TSS variance. Linear mixed-effects models that accommodated the association between the two eyes were constructed to evaluate the relationship between change in TSS and RNFL thickness over time. Results. Eighty-six eyes (51 suspected glaucoma, 35 glaucomatous) of 45 patients were enrolled. Twenty (23.3%) eyes demonstrated SAP progression. There was significantly greater fluctuation in TSS over time with GDxVCC compared with GDxECC as measured by absolute difference (18.40 ± 15.35 units vs. 2.50 ± 4.69 units; P < 0.001), TSS variance (59.63 ± 87.27 units vs. 3.82 ± 9.63 units, P < 0.001), and change in TSS from baseline (−0.83 ± 11.2 vs. 0.25 ± 2.9, P = 0.01). The change in TSS over time significantly (P = 0.006) influenced the TSNIT average RNFL thickness when measured by GDxVCC but not by GDxECC. Conclusions. Longitudinal images obtained with GDxECC have significantly less variability in TSS and retardance patterns and have reduced bias produced by ARP on RNFL progression assessment. PMID:21296821

Individual Variability in Aerobic Fitness Adaptations to 70-d of Bed Rest and Exercise Training

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Downs, Meghan; Buxton, Roxanne; Goetchius, Elizabeth; DeWitt, John; Ploutz-Snyder, Lori

2016-01-01

Change in maximal aerobic capacity (VO2pk) in response to exercise training and disuse is highly variable among individuals. Factors that could contribute to the observed variability (lean mass, daily activity, diet, sleep, stress) are not routinely controlled in studies. The NASA bed rest (BR) studies use a highly controlled hospital based model as an analog of spaceflight. In this study, diet, hydration, physical activity and light/dark cycles were precisely controlled and provided the opportunity to investigate individual variability. PURPOSE. Evaluate the contribution of exercise intensity and lean mass on change in VO2pk during 70-d of BR or BR + exercise. METHODS. Subjects completed 70-d of BR alone (CON, N=9) or BR + exercise (EX, N=17). The exercise prescription included 6 d/wk of aerobic exercise at 70 - 100% of max and 3 d/wk of lower body resistance exercise. Subjects were monitored 24 hr/d. VO2pk and lean mass (iDXA) were measured pre and post BR. ANOVA was used to evaluate changes in VO2pk pre to post BR. Subjects were retrospectively divided into high and low responders based on change in VO2pk (CON > 20% loss, n=5; EX >10% loss, n=4, or 5% gain, n=4) to further understand individual variability. RESULTS. VO2pk decreased from pre to post BR in CON (P<0.05) and was maintained in EX; however, significant individual variability was observed (CON: -22%, range: -39% to -.5%; EX: -1.8%, range: -16% to 12.6%). The overlap in ranges between groups included 3 CON who experienced smaller reduction in VO2pk (<16%) than the worst responding EX subjects. Individual variability was maintained when VO2pk was normalized to lean mass (range, CON: -33.7% to -5.7%; EX: -15.8% to 11%), and the overlap included 5 CON with smaller reductions in VO2pk than the worst responding EX subjects. High responders to disuse also lost the most lean mass; however, this relationship was not maintained in EX (i.e. the largest gains/losses in lean mass were observed in both high and low responders). Change in VO2pk was not related to exercise intensity. CONCLUSION. Change in VO2pk in response to disuse and exercise was highly variable among individuals, even in this tightly controlled study. Loss in lean mass accounts for a significant degree of variability in the CON; however, training induced gains in VO2pk appear unrelated to lean mass or exercise intensity.

Whole-Body Vibration Training Improves Heart Rate Variability and Body Fat Percentage in Obese Hispanic Postmenopausal Women.

PubMed

Severino, Gregory; Sanchez-Gonzalez, Marcos; Walters-Edwards, Michelle; Nordvall, Michael; Chernykh, Oksana; Adames, Jason; Wong, Alexei

2017-07-01

The present study examined the effects of a 6-week whole-body vibration training (WBVT) regimen on heart rate variability (HRV) and body composition in obese Hispanic postmenopausal women. Participants were randomly assigned to either WBVT (n = 13) or a nonexercising control group (n = 14). HRV and body composition were measured before and after 6 weeks. There was a significant group by time interaction (P < .05) for heart rate, sympathovagal balance, and body fat percentage (BF%) such that all significantly decreased (P < .05); and R-R intervals significantly increased (P < .05) following WBVT compared to no changes after control. The changes in sympathovagal balance were correlated with changes in BF% (r = .63, P < .05). Our findings indicate that WBVT improves HRV and BF% in obese Hispanic postmenopausal women. The improvement in BF% partially explained the decrease in sympathovagal balance. Since obese and older individuals are at increased risk of developing cardiovascular diseases, they could potentially benefit from WBVT.

Understanding the science of climate change: Talking Points - Impacts to arid lands

Treesearch

Rachel Loehman

2010-01-01

Arid ecosystems are particularly sensitive to climate change and climate variability because organisms in these regions live near their physiological limits for water and temperature stress. Slight changes in temperature or precipitation regimes, or in magnitude and frequency of extreme climatic events, can significantly alter the composition, abundance, and...

Temporal changes in the abundance, leaf growth and photosynthesis of three co-occurring Philippine seagrasses.

PubMed

Agawin, N S.R.; Duarte, C M.; Fortes, M D.; Uri, J S.; Vermaat, J E.

2001-06-01

The analysis of the temporal changes in shoot density, areal leaf biomass, leaf growth and parameters of the photosynthesis-irradiance relationship of three tropical seagrass species (Enhalus acoroides, Thalassia hemprichii and Cymodocea rotundata), co-existing in a shallow subtidal meadow in Cape Bolinao, Philippines, shows that species-specific traits are significant sources of temporal variability, and indicates that these seagrass species respond differently to a common environmental forcing. Species-specific differences are much less important as source of variability of the temporal change in chlorophyll concentration of seagrass leaves. The results indicate that the temporal changes in photosynthetic performance of these seagrasses were driven by environmental forcing and their specific responses to it mostly, but the temporal change in their abundance and leaf growth was also controlled by other factors. The significant contribution of species-specific factors in the temporal changes of biomass, growth and photosynthetic performance of co-occurring seagrass species in Cape Bolinao should contribute to the maintenance of the multispecific, highly productive meadows characteristic of pristine coastal ecosystems in Southeast (SE) Asia.

Effects of annual and interannual environmental variability on soil fungi associated with an old-growth, temperate hardwood forest.

PubMed

Burke, David J

2015-06-01

Seasonal and interannual variability in temperature, precipitation and chemical resources may regulate fungal community structure in forests but the effect of such variability is still poorly understood. In this study, I examined changes in fungal communities over two years and how these changes were correlated to natural variation in soil conditions. Soil cores were collected every month for three years from permanent plots established in an old-growth hardwood forest, and molecular methods were used to detect fungal species. Species richness and diversity were not consistent between years with richness and diversity significantly affected by season in one year but significantly affected by depth in the other year. These differences were associated with variation in late winter snow cover. Fungal communities significantly varied by plot location, season and depth and differences were consistent between years but fungal species within the community were not consistent in their seasonality or in their preference for certain soil depths. Some fungal species, however, were found to be consistently correlated with soil chemistry across sampled years. These results suggest that fungal community changes reflect the behavior of the individual species within the community pool and how those species respond to local resource availability. © FEMS 2015. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Seasonal variation in pans in relation to limno-chemistry, size, hydroperiod, and river connectivity in a semi-arid subtropical region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nhiwatiwa, Tamuka; Dalu, Tatenda

2017-02-01

Seasonal pans are hydrologically dynamic, with significant changes in water volume and depth in response to high evaporation, infiltration rates and inundation events. Intra-seasonal and inter-seasonal changes in endorheic and floodplain pans in relation to limnology, size, hydroperiod, and river connectivity were studied over two rainfall seasons across 36 pans at the Save Valley Conservancy. In the study region, floodplain pans were identified as pans that had connectivity with the Save River, while the endorheic pans (large and small) were hydrologically isolated basins. Seasonal trends for physico-chemical variables were initial low and gradual increased for both rainfall seasons. Significant inter-seasonal differences for several physico-chemical variables were observed. No significant differences in physico-chemical variables were observed between large and small endorheic pans, with the except for vegetation cover, which was higher in large pans. Floodplain pans differed from the endorheic systems in pH, conductivity, nutrients and suspended solids. Connectivity was found to be insignificant, as connections between these systems were probably too infrequent. Seasonal pans were uniquely distinguished by their morphometric, physico-chemical and hydrological characteristics. Inevitably, they are vulnerable to climate change with the extent of their resilience currently unknown.

Thrust modulation methods for a subsonic V/STOL aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Woollett, R. R.

1981-01-01

Low speed wind tunnel tests were conducted to assess four methods for attaining thrust modulation for V/STOL aircraft. The four methods were: (1) fan speed change, (2) fan nozzle exit area change, (3) variable pitch rotor (VPR) fan, and (4) variable inlet guide vanes (VIGV). The interrelationships between inlet and thrust modulation system were also investigated using a double slotted inlet and thick lip inlet. Results can be summarized as: (1) the VPR and VIGV systems were the most promising, (2) changes in blade angle to obtain changes in fan thrust have significant implications for the inlet, and (3) both systems attained required level of thrust with acceptable levels of fan blade stress.

Identifying Decadal to Multi-decadal Variability in the Pacific by Empirical Mode Decomposition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sommers, L. A.; Hamlington, B.; Cheon, S. H.

2016-12-01

Large scale climate variability in the Pacific Ocean like that associated with ENSO and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) has been shown to have a significant impact on climate and sea level across a range of timescales. The changes related to these climate signals have worldwide impacts on fisheries, weather, and precipitation patterns among others. Understanding these inter-annual to multi-decadal oscillations is imperative to longer term climate forecasts and understanding how climate will behave, and its effect on changes in sea level. With a 110-year reconstruction of sea level, we examine decadal to multi-decadal variability seen in the sea level fluctuations in the Pacific Ocean. Using empirical mode decomposition (EMD), we break down regional sea level into a series of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) and attempt attribution of these IMFs to specific climate modes of variability. In particular, and not unexpectedly, we identify IMFs associated with the PDO, finding correlations between the PDO Index and IMFs in the Pacific Ocean upwards of 0.6-0.8 over the 110-year reconstructed record. Perhaps more significantly, we also find evidence of a longer multi-decadal signal ( 50-60 years) in the higher order IMFs. This lower frequency variability has been suggested in previous literature as influencing GMSL, but here we find a regional pattern associated with this multi-decadal signal. By identifying and separating these periodic climate signals, we can gain a better understanding of how the sea level variability associated with these modes can impact sea level on short timescales and serve to exacerbate the effects of long-term sea level change.

Detection, attribution, and sensitivity of trends toward earlier streamflow in the Sierra Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Maurer, E.P.; Stewart, I.T.; Bonfils, Celine; Duffy, P.B.; Cayan, D.

2007-01-01

Observed changes in the timing of snowmelt dominated streamflow in the western United States are often linked to anthropogenic or other external causes. We assess whether observed streamflow timing changes can be statistically attributed to external forcing, or whether they still lie within the bounds of natural (internal) variability for four large Sierra Nevada (CA) basins, at inflow points to major reservoirs. Streamflow timing is measured by "center timing" (CT), the day when half the annual flow has passed a given point. We use a physically based hydrology model driven by meteorological input from a global climate model to quantify the natural variability in CT trends. Estimated 50-year trends in CT due to natural climate variability often exceed estimated actual CT trends from 1950 to 1999. Thus, although observed trends in CT to date may be statistically significant, they cannot yet be statistically attributed to external influences on climate. We estimate that projected CT changes at the four major reservoir inflows will, with 90% confidence, exceed those from natural variability within 1-4 decades or 4-8 decades, depending on rates of future greenhouse gas emissions. To identify areas most likely to exhibit CT changes in response to rising temperatures, we calculate changes in CT under temperature increases from 1 to 5??. We find that areas with average winter temperatures between -2??C and -4??C are most likely to respond with significant CT shifts. Correspondingly, elevations from 2000 to 2800 in are most sensitive to temperature increases, with CT changes exceeding 45 days (earlier) relative to 1961-1990. Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union.

Revisiting sea level changes in the North Sea during the Anthropocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jensen, Jürgen; Dangendorf, Sönke; Wahl, Thomas; Niehüser, Sebastian

2016-04-01

The North Sea is one of the best instrumented ocean basins in the world. Here we revisit sea level changes in the North Sea region from tide gauges, satellite altimetry, hydrographic profiles and ocean reanalysis data from the beginning of the 19th century to present. This includes an overview of the sea level chapter of the North Sea Climate Change Assessment (NOSCCA) complemented by results from more recent investigations. The estimates of long-term changes from tide gauge records are significantly affected by vertical land motion (VLM), which is related to both the large-scale viscoelastic response of the solid earth to ice melting since the last deglaciation and local effects. Removing VLM (estimated from various data sources such as GPS, tide gauge minus altimetry and GIA) significantly reduces the spatial variability of long-term trends in the basin. VLM corrected tide gauge records suggest a transition from relatively moderate changes in the 19th century towards modern trends of roughly 1.5 mm/yr during the 20th century. Superimposed on the long-term changes there is a considerable inter-annual to multi-decadal variability. On inter-annual timescales this variability mainly reflects the barotropic response of the ocean to atmospheric forcing with the inverted barometer effect dominating along the UK and Norwegian coastlines and wind forcing controlling the southeastern part of the basin. The decadal variability is mostly remotely forced and dynamically linked to the North Atlantic via boundary waves in response to long-shore winds along the continental slope. These findings give valuable information about the required horizontal resolution of ocean models and the necessary boundary conditions and are therefore important for the dynamical downscaling of sea level projections for the North Sea coastlines.

Longitudinal assessment of optical quality and intraocular scattering using the double-pass instrument in normal eyes and eyes with short tear breakup time.

PubMed

Kobashi, Hidenaga; Kamiya, Kazutaka; Yanome, Kyohei; Igarashi, Akihito; Shimizu, Kimiya

2013-01-01

To assess the longitudinal changes in optical quality including intraocular scattering in normal eyes and eyes with short tear breakup time (TBUT). We prospectively examined twenty eyes of 20 healthy subjects, and age-matched twenty eyes of 20 short TBUT subjects. The modulation transfer function (MTF) cutoff frequency, the Strehl ratio, and the objective scattering index (OSI) were quantitatively assessed using an Optical Quality Analysis System. We investigated the changes in these variables measured consecutively at the initial examination, 5, and 10 seconds without blinking. We also compared these variables in eyes with short TBUT with those in normal eyes. No significant differences in the MTF cutoff frequency, Strehl ratio, or OSI were detected over a 10-second period in normal eyes. These variables also became significantly degraded even over a 5-second period in eyes with short TBUT (p<0.01). We found significant differences in these variables at 5 and 10 seconds (p<0.05), but none immediately after the blink between normal and short TBUT eyes. Optical quality including intraocular scattering deteriorated significantly with time in eyes with short TBUT, whereas we found significant differences over a 10-second period in normal eyes. Eyes with short TBUT showed greater deterioration in optical quality after the blink than normal eyes. The longitudinal assessment of optical quality may be effective in distinguishing eyes with short TBUT from normal eyes.

What makes patients with fibromyalgia feel better? Correlations between Patient Global Impression of Improvement and changes in clinical symptoms and function: a pooled analysis of 4 randomized placebo-controlled trials of duloxetine.

PubMed

Hudson, James I; Arnold, Lesley M; Bradley, Laurence A; Choy, Ernest H S; Mease, Philip J; Wang, Fujun; Ahl, Jonna; Wohlreich, Madelaine M

2009-11-01

To investigate the relationship between changes in clinical rating scale items and endpoint Patient Global Impression of Improvement (PGI-I). Data were pooled from 4 randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled studies of duloxetine in patients with fibromyalgia (FM). Variables included in the analyses were those that assessed symptoms in FM domains of pain, fatigue, sleep, cognitive difficulties, emotional well-being, physical function, and impact on daily living. The association of endpoint PGI-I with changes from baseline in individual variables was assessed using Pearson product-moment correlations (r). Stepwise linear regression was used to identify those variables for which changes from baseline were statistically significant independent predictors of the endpoint PGI-I ratings. Changes in pain variables and interference of symptoms with the ability to work were highly correlated (r >or= 0.5 or r

Precipitation variability within the West Pacific Warm Pool over the past 120 ka: Evidence from the Davao Gulf, southern Philippines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fraser, Nicholas; Kuhnt, Wolfgang; Holbourn, Ann; Bolliet, Timothé; Andersen, Nils; Blanz, Thomas; Beaufort, Luc

2014-11-01

Proxy records of hydrologic variability in the West Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP) have revealed wide-scale changes in past convective activity in response to orbital and suborbital climate forcings. However, attributing proxy responses to regional changes in WPWP hydrology versus local variations in precipitation requires independent records linking the terrestrial and marine realms. We present high-resolution stable isotope, UK'37 sea surface temperature, X-ray fluorescence (XRF) core scanning, and coccolithophore-derived paleoproductivity records covering the past 120 ka from International Marine Global Change (IMAGES) Program Core MD06-3075 (6°29'N, 125°50'E, water depth 1878 m), situated in the Davao Gulf on the southern side of Mindanao. XRF-derived log(Fe/Ca) records provide a robust proxy for runoff-driven sedimentary discharge from Mindanao, while past changes in local productivity are associated with variable freshwater runoff and stratification of the surface layer. Significant precessional-scale variability in sedimentary discharge occurred during marine isotope stage (MIS) 5, with peaks in discharge contemporaneous with Northern Hemisphere summer insolation minima. We attribute these changes to the latitudinal migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) over the WPWP together with variability in the strength of the Walker circulation acting on precessional timescales. Between 60 and 15 ka sedimentary discharge at Mindanao was muted, displaying little orbital- or millennial-scale variability, likely in response to weakened precessional insolation forcing and lower sea level driving increased subsidence of air masses over the exposed Sunda Shelf. These results highlight the high degree of local variability in the precipitation response to past climate changes in the WPWP.

Climate change enhances interannual variability of the Nile river flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siam, Mohamed S.; Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.

2017-04-01

The human population living in the Nile basin countries is projected to double by 2050, approaching one billion. The increase in water demand associated with this burgeoning population will put significant stress on the available water resources. Potential changes in the flow of the Nile River as a result of climate change may further strain this critical situation. Here, we present empirical evidence from observations and consistent projections from climate model simulations suggesting that the standard deviation describing interannual variability of total Nile flow could increase by 50% (+/-35%) (multi-model ensemble mean +/- 1 standard deviation) in the twenty-first century compared to the twentieth century. We attribute the relatively large change in interannual variability of the Nile flow to projected increases in future occurrences of El Niño and La Niña events and to observed teleconnection between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Nile River flow. Adequacy of current water storage capacity and plans for additional storage capacity in the basin will need to be re-evaluated given the projected enhancement of interannual variability in the future flow of the Nile river.

Morphing Wing Weight Predictors and Their Application in a Template-Based Morphing Aircraft Sizing Environment II. Part 2; Morphing Aircraft Sizing via Multi-level Optimization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Skillen, Michael D.; Crossley, William A.

2008-01-01

This report presents an approach for sizing of a morphing aircraft based upon a multi-level design optimization approach. For this effort, a morphing wing is one whose planform can make significant shape changes in flight - increasing wing area by 50% or more from the lowest possible area, changing sweep 30 or more, and/or increasing aspect ratio by as much as 200% from the lowest possible value. The top-level optimization problem seeks to minimize the gross weight of the aircraft by determining a set of "baseline" variables - these are common aircraft sizing variables, along with a set of "morphing limit" variables - these describe the maximum shape change for a particular morphing strategy. The sub-level optimization problems represent each segment in the morphing aircraft's design mission; here, each sub-level optimizer minimizes fuel consumed during each mission segment by changing the wing planform within the bounds set by the baseline and morphing limit variables from the top-level problem.

Effect of Stimulation of Neurotransmitter Systems on Heart Rate Variability and β-Adrenergic Responsiveness of Erythrocytes in Outbred Rats.

PubMed

Kur'yanova, E V; Tryasuchev, A V; Stupin, V O; Teplyi, D L

2017-05-01

We studied heart rate variability and β-adrenergic responsiveness of erythrocytes and changes in these parameters in response to single administration of β-adrenoblocker propranolol (2 mg/kg) in outbred male rats against the background of activation of the noradrenergic, serotonergic, and dopaminergic neurotransmitter systems achieved by 4-fold injections maprotiline (10 mg/kg), 5-hydroxytryptophan (50 mg/kg) combined with fluoxetine (3 mg/kg), and L-DOPA (20 mg/kg) with amantadine (20 mg/kg), respectively. Stimulation of the noradrenergic system moderately enhanced the heart rhythm rigidity and β-adrenergic responsiveness of erythrocytes. In addition, it markedly augmented the moderating effect of subsequently administered propranolol on LF and VLF components in the heart rate variability and reversed the effect of propranolol on β-adrenergic responsiveness of erythrocytes. Stimulation of the serotonergic system dramatically decreased all components in the heart rate variability and pronouncedly enhanced β-adrenergic responsiveness of erythrocytes. Subsequent injection of propranolol slightly restored all components in the heart rate variability and decreased β-adrenergic responsiveness of erythrocytes to the control level. Stimulation of the dopaminergic system made the heart rate more rigid due to decrease of all components in the heart rate variability; in addition, it slightly but significantly enhanced β-adrenergic responsiveness of erythrocytes. Subsequent injection of propranolol produced no significant effects on all components in the heart rate variability and on β-adrenergic responsiveness of erythrocytes. Stimulation of noradrenergic, serotonergic, and dopaminergic neurotransmitter systems produced unidirectional and consorted effects on heart rate variability and β-adrenergic responsiveness of erythrocytes, although the magnitudes of these effects were different. Probably, the changes in the heart rate variability in rats with stimulated neurotransmitter systems results from modification of the cellular sensitivity in peripheral organs to adrenergic influences. However, the differences in the reactions to β-adrenoblocker attest to specificity of the mechanisms underlying the changes in membrane reception and adrenergic pathways in every experimental model employed in this study.

Data Mine and Forget It?: A Cautionary Tale

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tada, Yuri; Kraft, Norbert Otto; Orasanu, Judith M.

2011-01-01

With the development of new technologies, data mining has become increasingly popular. However, caution should be exercised in choosing the variables to include in data mining. A series of regression trees was created to demonstrate the change in the selection by the program of significant predictors based on the nature of variables.

Spatial and Temporal Monitoring of Dissolved Oxygen (DO) in New Jersey Coastal Waters Using Autonomous Gliders

EPA Science Inventory

The coastal ocean is a highly variable system with processes that have significant implications on the hydrographic and oxygen characteristics of the water column. The spatial and temporal variability of these fields can cause dramatic changes to water quality and in turn the h...

Ensemble simulations of the role of the stratosphere in the attribution of northern extratropical tropospheric ozone variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hess, P.; Kinnison, D.; Tang, Q.

2015-03-01

Despite the need to understand the impact of changes in emissions and climate on tropospheric ozone, the attribution of tropospheric interannual ozone variability to specific processes has proven difficult. Here, we analyze the stratospheric contribution to tropospheric ozone variability and trends from 1953 to 2005 in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) mid-latitudes using four ensemble simulations of the free running (FR) Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). The simulations are externally forced with observed time-varying (1) sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), (2) greenhouse gases (GHGs), (3) ozone depleting substances (ODS), (4) quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), (5) solar variability (SV) and (6) stratospheric sulfate surface area density (SAD). A detailed representation of stratospheric chemistry is simulated, including the ozone loss due to volcanic eruptions and polar stratospheric clouds. In the troposphere, ozone production is represented by CH4-NOx smog chemistry, where surface chemical emissions remain interannually constant. Despite the simplicity of its tropospheric chemistry, at many NH measurement locations, the interannual ozone variability in the FR WACCM simulations is significantly correlated with the measured interannual variability. This suggests the importance of the external forcing applied in these simulations in driving interannual ozone variability. The variability and trend in the simulated 1953-2005 tropospheric ozone from 30 to 90° N at background surface measurement sites, 500 hPa measurement sites and in the area average are largely explained on interannual timescales by changes in the 30-90° N area averaged flux of ozone across the 100 hPa surface and changes in tropospheric methane concentrations. The average sensitivity of tropospheric ozone to methane (percent change in ozone to a percent change in methane) from 30 to 90° N is 0.17 at 500 hPa and 0.21 at the surface; the average sensitivity of tropospheric ozone to the 100 hPa ozone flux (percent change in ozone to a percent change in the ozone flux) from 30 to 90° N is 0.19 at 500 hPa and 0.11 at the surface. The 30-90° N simulated downward residual velocity at 100 hPa increased by 15% between 1953 and 2005. However, the impact of this on the 30-90° N 100 hPa ozone flux is modulated by the long-term changes in stratospheric ozone. The ozone flux decreases from 1965 to 1990 due to stratospheric ozone depletion, but increases again by approximately 7% from 1990 to 2005. The first empirical orthogonal function of interannual ozone variability explains from 40% (at the surface) to over 80% (at 150 hPa) of the simulated ozone interannual variability from 30 to 90° N. This identified mode of ozone variability shows strong stratosphere-troposphere coupling, demonstrating the importance of the stratosphere in an attribution of tropospheric ozone variability. The simulations, with no change in emissions, capture almost 50% of the measured ozone change during the 1990s at a variety of locations. This suggests that a large portion of the measured change is not due to changes in emissions, but can be traced to changes in large-scale modes of ozone variability. This emphasizes the difficulty in the attribution of ozone changes, and the importance of natural variability in understanding the trends and variability of ozone. We find little relation between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index and large-scale tropospheric ozone variability over the long-term record.

Modeling mountain pine beetle habitat suitability within Sequoia National Park

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nguyen, Andrew

Understanding significant changes in climate and their effects on timber resources can help forest managers make better decisions regarding the preservation of natural resources and land management. These changes may to alter natural ecosystems dependent on historical and current climate conditions. Increasing mountain pine beetle (MBP) outbreaks within the southern Sierra Nevada are the result of these alterations. This study better understands MPB behavior within Sequoia National Park (SNP) and model its current and future habitat distribution. Variables contributing to MPB spread are vegetation stress, soil moisture, temperature, precipitation, disturbance, and presence of Ponderosa (Pinus ponderosa) and Lodgepole (Pinus contorta) pine trees. These variables were obtained using various modeled, insitu, and remotely sensed sources. The generalized additive model (GAM) was used to calculate the statistical significance of each variable contributing to MPB spread and also created maps identifying habitat suitability. Results indicate vegetation stress and forest disturbance to be variables most indicative of MPB spread. Additionally, the model was able to detect habitat suitability of MPB with a 45% accuracy concluding that a geospatial driven modeling approach can be used to delineate potential MPB spread within SNP.

The Effect of Three Cognitive Variables on Students' Understanding of the Particulate Nature of Matter and its Changes of State

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsitsipis, Georgios; Stamovlasis, Dimitrios; Papageorgiou, George

2010-05-01

In this study, students' understanding of the structure of matter and its changes of state such as melting, evaporation, boiling, and condensation was investigated in relation to three cognitive variables: logical thinking (LTh), field dependence/independence, and convergence/divergence dimension. The study took place in Greece with the participation of 329 ninth-grade junior high school pupils (age 14-15). A stepwise multiple regression analysis revealed that all of the above-mentioned cognitive variables were statistically significant predictors of the students' achievement. Among the three predictors, LTh was found to be the most dominant. In addition, students' understanding of the structure of matter, along with the cognitive variables, was shown to have an effect on their understanding of the changes of states and on their competence to interpret these physical changes. Path analyses were implemented to depict these effects. Moreover, a theoretical analysis is provided that associates LTh and cognitive styles with the nature of mental tasks involved when learning the material concerning the particulate nature of matter and its changes of state. Implications for science education are also discussed.

Effects of hypocaloric diets with different glycemic indexes on endothelial function and glycemic variability in overweight and in obese adult patients at increased cardiovascular risk.

PubMed

Buscemi, Silvio; Cosentino, Loretta; Rosafio, Giuseppe; Morgana, Manuela; Mattina, Alessandro; Sprini, Delia; Verga, Salvatore; Rini, Giovam Battista

2013-06-01

The role of glycemic index of the diet in glucose control and cardiovascular prevention is still not clear. The aim of this study was to determine the effects of hypocaloric diets with different glycemic indexes and glycemic loads on endothelial function and glycemic variability in nondiabetic participants at increased cardiovascular risk. Forty nondiabetic obese participants were randomly assigned to a three-month treatment with either a low glycemic index (LGI; n=19) or high glycemic index (HGI; n=21) hypocaloric diet with similar macronutrient and fiber content. Endothelial function was measured as flow-mediated dilatation (FMD) of the brachial artery before and after dieting. In addition, 48-h continuous subcutaneous glucose monitoring was done before and after dieting in a subgroup of 24 participants. The amount of weight loss after dieting was similar in both groups. The glycemic index of the diet significantly influenced the FMD (P<0.005). In particular, the change of FMD was 2.3±2.6% following the LGI diet, and -0.9±3.6% after the HGI diet (P<0.005). The mean 48-h glycemia decreased significantly after dietary treatment (P<0.05), but no significant effect of the glycemic index of the diet on results was observed. The glycemic index of the diet significantly influenced the 48-h glycemic variability measured as coefficient of variability (CV%; P<0.001). The CV% decreased after the LGI diet (from 23.5 to 20.0%) and increased after the HGI diet (from 23.6 to 26.6%). The change in percentage of FMD was inversely correlated with the change in the 48-h glycemic CV% (r=-0.45; P<0.05). Endothelial function and glycemic variability ameliorate in association with the adherence to an LGI hypocaloric diet in nondiabetic obese persons. ISRCTN56834511. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd and European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism. All rights reserved.

Quantitative and qualitative measure of intralaboratory two-dimensional protein gel reproducibility and the effects of sample preparation, sample load, and image analysis.

PubMed

Choe, Leila H; Lee, Kelvin H

2003-10-01

We investigate one approach to assess the quantitative variability in two-dimensional gel electrophoresis (2-DE) separations based on gel-to-gel variability, sample preparation variability, sample load differences, and the effect of automation on image analysis. We observe that 95% of spots present in three out of four replicate gels exhibit less than a 0.52 coefficient of variation (CV) in fluorescent stain intensity (% volume) for a single sample run on multiple gels. When four parallel sample preparations are performed, this value increases to 0.57. We do not observe any significant change in quantitative value for an increase or decrease in sample load of 30% when using appropriate image analysis variables. Increasing use of automation, while necessary in modern 2-DE experiments, does change the observed level of quantitative and qualitative variability among replicate gels. The number of spots that change qualitatively for a single sample run in parallel varies from a CV = 0.03 for fully manual analysis to CV = 0.20 for a fully automated analysis. We present a systematic method by which a single laboratory can measure gel-to-gel variability using only three gel runs.

The changes of densities and patterns of roads and rural buildings: a case study on Dongzhi Yuan of the Loess Plateau, China.

PubMed

Bi, Xiaoli; Wang, Hui; Ge, Jianping

2010-05-01

Roads and buildings are considered as primary causes of rural landscape changes. In this study, linear regression models were used to analyze the dynamic influences of environmental factors and variables on roads and rural buildings from 1979 to 2005 in Dongzhi Yuan (tableland) of the Loess Plateau, China. The relationship between roads and rural buildings and their effects on Dongzhi Yuan are discussed also. The results showed that three environmental factors (topography, land cover, and development level) explained roads better than rural buildings referring densities and patterns. The environmental variables significantly related to roads have decreased, whereas those related to rural buildings have increased over time. Among these significant variables, percent of farmland mostly determined the densities and patterns of both roads and rural buildings. There was significant correlation between roads and rural buildings in terms of density and pattern. In addition, roads and rural buildings have increased greatly in gully areas of this region. Therefore, more attention should be paid to planning of roads and rural buildings in Dongzhi Yuan.

The use of generalized estimating equations in the analysis of motor vehicle crash data.

PubMed

Hutchings, Caroline B; Knight, Stacey; Reading, James C

2003-01-01

The purpose of this study was to determine if it is necessary to use generalized estimating equations (GEEs) in the analysis of seat belt effectiveness in preventing injuries in motor vehicle crashes. The 1992 Utah crash dataset was used, excluding crash participants where seat belt use was not appropriate (n=93,633). The model used in the 1996 Report to Congress [Report to congress on benefits of safety belts and motorcycle helmets, based on data from the Crash Outcome Data Evaluation System (CODES). National Center for Statistics and Analysis, NHTSA, Washington, DC, February 1996] was analyzed for all occupants with logistic regression, one level of nesting (occupants within crashes), and two levels of nesting (occupants within vehicles within crashes) to compare the use of GEEs with logistic regression. When using one level of nesting compared to logistic regression, 13 of 16 variance estimates changed more than 10%, and eight of 16 parameter estimates changed more than 10%. In addition, three of the independent variables changed from significant to insignificant (alpha=0.05). With the use of two levels of nesting, two of 16 variance estimates and three of 16 parameter estimates changed more than 10% from the variance and parameter estimates in one level of nesting. One of the independent variables changed from insignificant to significant (alpha=0.05) in the two levels of nesting model; therefore, only two of the independent variables changed from significant to insignificant when the logistic regression model was compared to the two levels of nesting model. The odds ratio of seat belt effectiveness in preventing injuries was 12% lower when a one-level nested model was used. Based on these results, we stress the need to use a nested model and GEEs when analyzing motor vehicle crash data.

Climate change and occurrence of diarrheal diseases: evolving facts from Nepal.

PubMed

Bhandari, G P; Gurung, S; Dhimal, M; Bhusal, C L

2012-09-01

Climate change is becoming huge threat to health especially for those from developing countries. Diarrhea as one of the major diseases linked with changing climate. This study has been carried out to assess the relationship between climatic variables, and malaria and to find out the range of non-climatic factors that can confound the relationship of climate change and human health. It is a Retrospective study where data of past ten years relating to climate and disease (diarrhea) variable were analyzed. The study conducted trend analysis based on correlation. The climate related data were obtained from Department of Hydrology and Meteorology. Time Series analysis was also being conducted. The trend of number of yearly cases of diarrhea has been increasing from 1998 to 2001 after which the cases remain constant till 2006.The climate types in Jhapa vary from humid to per-humid based on the moisture index and Mega-thermal based on thermal efficiency. The mean annual temperature is increasing at an average of 0.04 °C/year with maximum temperature increasing faster than the minimum temperature. The annual total rainfall of Jhapa is decreasing at an average rate of -7.1 mm/year. Statistically significant correlation between diarrheal cases occurrence and temperature and rainfall has been observed. However, climate variables were not the significant predictors of diarrheal occurrence. The association among climate variables and diarrheal disease occurrence cannot be neglected which has been showed by this study. Further prospective longitudinal study adjusting influence of non-climatic factors is recommended.

Changes in nasal airflow and heat transfer correlate with symptom improvement after surgery for nasal obstruction.

PubMed

Kimbell, J S; Frank, D O; Laud, Purushottam; Garcia, G J M; Rhee, J S

2013-10-18

Surgeries to correct nasal airway obstruction (NAO) often have less than desirable outcomes, partly due to the absence of an objective tool to select the most appropriate surgical approach for each patient. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models can be used to investigate nasal airflow, but variables need to be identified that can detect surgical changes and correlate with patient symptoms. CFD models were constructed from pre- and post-surgery computed tomography scans for 10 NAO patients showing no evidence of nasal cycling. Steady-state inspiratory airflow, nasal resistance, wall shear stress, and heat flux were computed for the main nasal cavity from nostrils to posterior nasal septum both bilaterally and unilaterally. Paired t-tests indicated that all CFD variables were significantly changed by surgery when calculated on the most obstructed side, and that airflow, nasal resistance, and heat flux were significantly changed bilaterally as well. Moderate linear correlations with patient-reported symptoms were found for airflow, heat flux, unilateral allocation of airflow, and unilateral nasal resistance as a fraction of bilateral nasal resistance when calculated on the most obstructed nasal side, suggesting that these variables may be useful for evaluating the efficacy of nasal surgery objectively. Similarity in the strengths of these correlations suggests that patient-reported symptoms may represent a constellation of effects and that these variables should be tracked concurrently during future virtual surgery planning. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hydrological influences on the water quality trends in Tamiraparani Basin, South India.

PubMed

Ravichandran, S

2003-09-01

Water quality variables--Turbidity, pH, Electrical Conductivity (EC), Chlorides and Total Hardness (TH) were monitored at a downstream location in the Tamiraparani River during 1978-1992. The observations were made at weekly intervals in a water treatment and supply plant using standard methods. Graphical and statistical analyses were used for data exploration, trend detection and assessment. Box-Whisker plots of annual and seasonal changes in variables indicated apparent trends being present in the data and their response to the seasonal influence of the monsoon rainfall. Further, the examination of the median values of the variables indicated that changes in the direction of trend occurred during 1985-1986, especially in pH, EC and TH. The statistical analyses were done using non-parametric methods, the ANCOVA on rank transformed data and the Seasonal Man-Kendall test. The presence of monotonic trend in all the water quality variables was confirmed, however, with independent direction of change. The trend line was fitted by the method of least squares. The estimated values indicated significant increases in EC (28 microS cm(-1)) while significant decreases were observed in turbidity (90 NTU), pH (0.78), and total hardness (23 ppm) in a span of 15 years. The changes induced in river flow by the addition of a stabilizing reservoir, the influence of seasonal and spatial pattern of monsoon rainfall across the river basin and the increased agriculture appear causative factors for the water quality trends seen in the Tamiraparani River system.

[The effects of 16-weeks pilates mat program on anthropometric variables and body composition in active adult women after a short detraining period].

PubMed

Vaquero-Cristóbal, Raquel; Alacid, Fernando; Esparza-Ros, Francisco; Muyor, José M; López-Miñarro, Pedro Ángel

2015-04-01

previous studies have analysed the effect of mat Pilates practice on anthropometric variables and body composition in sedentaries. To date no researchs have investigated the benefits of Pilates on these variables after a short detraining period. to determine the effect of a 16-week mat Pilates program on anthropometric variables, body composition and somatotype of women with previous practice experience after three weeks of detraining period. twenty-one women underwent a complete anthropometric assessment according with ISAK guidelines before and after a 16 week mat Pilates program (two days, one hour). All women had one to three years of mat Pilates experience and came to three weeks of detraining period (Christmas holiday). women showed significant decreases for body mass, BMI, upper limb (biceps and triceps) and trunk (subscapular, iliac crest, supraspinale and abdominal) individual skinfolds, 6 and 8 skinfold sums, endomorphy and fat mass; and a significant increases for muscle mass. The mean somatotype was classified as mesomorphic endomorph in the pre- (4.91, 4.01, 1.47) and post-test (4.68, 4.16, 1.69). Eight women changed their somatotype clasification after the intervention program. the practice of mat Pilates for 16 weeks caused changes associated with health state improvements on anthropometric variables, especially on skinfolds which significantly decreased, body composition (fat and muscle masses decreased and increased, respectively) and somatotype (there was a significantly decreased on the endomorph component in experienced women after three week of detraning. Copyright AULA MEDICA EDICIONES 2014. Published by AULA MEDICA. All rights reserved.

Longitudinal Changes in Functioning and Disability in Patients with Disorders of Consciousness: The Importance of Environmental Factors

PubMed Central

Willems, Michelle; Sattin, Davide; Vingerhoets, Ad J.J.M.; Leonardi, Matilde

2015-01-01

Disorders of consciousness are neurological conditions associated with low levels of functioning which pose a serious challenge to public health systems. The current study aimed to examine longitudinal changes in functioning in patients with disorders of consciousness and to identify associated biopsychosocial factors using the International Classification of Functioning, Disability, and Health. An Italian sample of 248 patients was assessed longitudinally. Differences in relative variability (an index of change that controls for baseline levels) between acute and chronic patients and predictors of relative variability in “Activities & Participation” were examined. Results showed that there were subgroups of patients whose functioning improved over time. The number of problems in “Activities & Participation” decreased in acute patients over time, whereas in chronic patients, an increase was found. The significant difference in relative variability for the environmental factor “support and relationships” reflects the increase in facilitators in acute patients, whereas the number of facilitators in chronic patients remained unchanged over time. Age at event, time from event, and relative variability in “Environmental Factors” were significant predictors of relative variability in “Activities & Participation”. It is of clinical relevance that patients with disorders of consciousness are kept in a supportive and facilitative environment, in order to prevent a decline in their functioning. Moreover, caregivers should receive tailored support in order to enhance and facilitate appropriate care of patients with disorders of consciousness. PMID:25837348

The role of sex and body weight on the metabolic effects of high-fat diet in C57BL/6N mice.

PubMed

Ingvorsen, C; Karp, N A; Lelliott, C J

2017-04-10

Metabolic disorders are commonly investigated using knockout and transgenic mouse models on the C57BL/6N genetic background due to its genetic susceptibility to the deleterious metabolic effects of high-fat diet (HFD). There is growing awareness of the need to consider sex in disease progression, but limited attention has been paid to sexual dimorphism in mouse models and its impact in metabolic phenotypes. We assessed the effect of HFD and the impact of sex on metabolic variables in this strain. We generated a reference data set encompassing glucose tolerance, body composition and plasma chemistry data from 586 C57BL/6N mice fed a standard chow and 733 fed a HFD collected as part of a high-throughput phenotyping pipeline. Linear mixed model regression analysis was used in a dual analysis to assess the effect of HFD as an absolute change in phenotype, but also as a relative change accounting for the potential confounding effect of body weight. HFD had a significant impact on all variables tested with an average absolute effect size of 29%. For the majority of variables (78%), the treatment effect was modified by sex and this was dominated by male-specific or a male stronger effect. On average, there was a 13.2% difference in the effect size between the male and female mice for sexually dimorphic variables. HFD led to a significant body weight phenotype (24% increase), which acts as a confounding effect on the other analysed variables. For 79% of the variables, body weight was found to be a significant source of variation, but even after accounting for this confounding effect, similar HFD-induced phenotypic changes were found to when not accounting for weight. HFD and sex are powerful modifiers of metabolic parameters in C57BL/6N mice. We also demonstrate the value of considering body size as a covariate to obtain a richer understanding of metabolic phenotypes.

Cool-Season Moisture Delivery and Multi-Basin Streamflow Anomalies in the Western United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malevich, Steven B.

Widespread droughts can have a significant impact on western United States streamflow, but the causes of these events are not fully understood. This dissertation examines streamflow from multiple western US basins and establishes the robust, leading modes of variability in interannual streamflow throughout the past century. I show that approximately 50% of this variability is associated with spatially widespread streamflow anomalies that are statistically independent from streamflow's response to the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The ENSO-teleconnection accounts for approximately 25% of the interannual variability in streamflow, across this network. These atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with the most spatially widespread variability are associated with the Aleutian low and the persistent coastal atmospheric ridge in the Pacific Northwest. I use a watershed segmentation algorithm to explicitly track the position and intensity of these features and compare their variability to the multi-basin streamflow variability. Results show that latitudinal shifts in the coastal atmospheric ridge are more strongly associated with streamflow's north-south dipole response to ENSO variability while more spatially widespread anomalies in streamflow most strongly relate to seasonal changes in the coastal ridge intensity. This likely reflects persistent coastal ridge blocking of cool-season precipitation into western US river basins. I utilize the 35 model runs of the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESMLE) to determine whether the model ensemble simulates the anomalously strong coastal ridges and extreme widespread wintertime precipitation anomalies found in the observation record. Though there is considerable bias in the CESMLE, the CESMLE runs simulate extremely widespread dry precipitation anomalies with a frequency of approximately one extreme event per century during the historical simulations (1920 - 2005). These extremely widespread dry events correspond significantly with anomalously intense coastal atmospheric ridges. The results from these three papers connect widespread interannual streamflow anomalies in the western US--and especially extremely widespread streamflow droughts--with semi-permanent atmospheric ridge anomalies near the coastal Pacific Northwest. This is important to western US water managers because these widespread events appear to have been a robust feature of the past century. The semi-permanent atmospheric features associated with these widespread dry streamflow anomalies are projected to change position significantly in the next century as a response to global climate change. This may change widespread streamflow anomaly characteristic in the western US, though my results do not show evidence of these changes within the instrument record of last century.

Response of water temperatures and stratification to changing climate in three lakes with different morphometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Magee, Madeline R.; Wu, Chin H.

2017-12-01

Water temperatures and stratification are important drivers for ecological and water quality processes within lake systems, and changes in these with increases in air temperature and changes to wind speeds may have significant ecological consequences. To properly manage these systems under changing climate, it is important to understand the effects of increasing air temperatures and wind speed changes in lakes of different depths and surface areas. In this study, we simulate three lakes that vary in depth and surface area to elucidate the effects of the observed increasing air temperatures and decreasing wind speeds on lake thermal variables (water temperature, stratification dates, strength of stratification, and surface heat fluxes) over a century (1911-2014). For all three lakes, simulations showed that epilimnetic temperatures increased, hypolimnetic temperatures decreased, the length of the stratified season increased due to earlier stratification onset and later fall overturn, stability increased, and longwave and sensible heat fluxes at the surface increased. Overall, lake depth influences the presence of stratification, Schmidt stability, and differences in surface heat flux, while lake surface area influences differences in hypolimnion temperature, hypolimnetic heating, variability of Schmidt stability, and stratification onset and fall overturn dates. Larger surface area lakes have greater wind mixing due to increased surface momentum. Climate perturbations indicate that our larger study lakes have more variability in temperature and stratification variables than the smaller lakes, and this variability increases with larger wind speeds. For all study lakes, Pearson correlations and climate perturbation scenarios indicate that wind speed has a large effect on temperature and stratification variables, sometimes greater than changes in air temperature, and wind can act to either amplify or mitigate the effect of warmer air temperatures on lake thermal structure depending on the direction of local wind speed changes.

The Nature of Antarctic Temperature Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Markle, B. R.; Steig, E. J.

2017-12-01

The Antarctic is an important component of global climate. While the Arctic has warmed significantly in the last century, the Antarctic as a whole has shown considerably less variability. There is, however, a pronounced spatial pattern to modern Antarctic temperature change. The high East Antarctic Ice Sheet shows little to no warming over recent decades while West Antarctica and the Peninsula shows some of the largest rates of warming on the globe. Examining past climate variability can help reveal the physical processes governing this spatial pattern of Antarctic temperature change. Modern Antarctic temperature variability is known from satellite and weather station observations. Understanding changes in the past, however, requires paleoclimate-proxies such as ice-core water-isotope records. Here we assess the spatial pattern of Antarctic temperature changes across a range of timescales, from modern decadal changes to millennial and orbital-scale variability. We reconstruct past changes in absolute temperatures from a suite of deep ice core records and an improved isotope-temperature reconstruction method. We use δ18O and deuterium excess records to reconstruct both evaporation source and condensation site temperatures. In contrast to previous studies we use a novel method that accounts for nonlinearities in the water-isotope distillation process. We quantify past temperature changes over the Southern Ocean and Antarctic Continent and the magnitude of polar amplification. We identify patterns of Antarctic temperature change that are common across a wide range of timescales and independent of the source of forcing. We examine the nature of these changes and their relationship to atmospheric thermodynamics.

Analysis of Lung Tumor Motion in a Large Sample: Patterns and Factors Influencing Precise Delineation of Internal Target Volume

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Knybel, Lukas; VŠB-Technical University of Ostrava, Ostrava; Cvek, Jakub, E-mail: Jakub.cvek@fno.cz

Purpose/Objective: To evaluate lung tumor motion during respiration and to describe factors affecting the range and variability of motion in patients treated with stereotactic ablative radiation therapy. Methods and Materials: Log file analysis from online respiratory tumor tracking was performed in 145 patients. Geometric tumor location in the lungs, tumor volume and origin (primary or metastatic), sex, and tumor motion amplitudes in the superior-inferior (SI), latero-lateral (LL), and anterior-posterior (AP) directions were recorded. Tumor motion variability during treatment was described using intrafraction/interfraction amplitude variability and tumor motion baseline changes. Tumor movement dependent on the tumor volume, position and origin, andmore » sex were evaluated using statistical regression and correlation analysis. Results: After analysis of >500 hours of data, the highest rates of motion amplitudes, intrafraction/interfraction variation, and tumor baseline changes were in the SI direction (6.0 ± 2.2 mm, 2.2 ± 1.8 mm, 1.1 ± 0.9 mm, and −0.1 ± 2.6 mm). The mean motion amplitudes in the lower/upper geometric halves of the lungs were significantly different (P<.001). Motion amplitudes >15 mm were observed only in the lower geometric quarter of the lungs. Higher tumor motion amplitudes generated higher intrafraction variations (R=.86, P<.001). Interfraction variations and baseline changes >3 mm indicated tumors contacting mediastinal structures or parietal pleura. On univariate analysis, neither sex nor tumor origin (primary vs metastatic) was an independent predictive factor of different movement patterns. Metastatic lesions in women, but not men, showed significantly higher mean amplitudes (P=.03) and variability (primary, 2.7 mm; metastatic, 4.9 mm; P=.002) than primary tumors. Conclusion: Online tracking showed significant irregularities in lung tumor movement during respiration. Motion amplitude was significantly lower in upper lobe tumors; higher interfraction amplitude variability indicated tumors in contact with mediastinal structures, although adhesion to parietal pleura did not necessarily reduce tumor motion amplitudes. The most variable lung tumors were metastatic lesions in women.« less

Oxidative shift in tissue redox potential increases beat-to-beat variability of action potential duration.

PubMed

Kistamás, Kornél; Hegyi, Bence; Váczi, Krisztina; Horváth, Balázs; Bányász, Tamás; Magyar, János; Szentandrássy, Norbert; Nánási, Péter P

2015-07-01

Profound changes in tissue redox potential occur in the heart under conditions of oxidative stress frequently associated with cardiac arrhythmias. Since beat-to-beat variability (short term variability, SV) of action potential duration (APD) is a good indicator of arrhythmia incidence, the aim of this work was to study the influence of redox changes on SV in isolated canine ventricular cardiomyocytes using a conventional microelectrode technique. The redox potential was shifted toward a reduced state using a reductive cocktail (containing dithiothreitol, glutathione, and ascorbic acid) while oxidative changes were initiated by superfusion with H2O2. Redox effects were evaluated as changes in "relative SV" determined by comparing SV changes with the concomitant APD changes. Exposure of myocytes to the reductive cocktail decreased SV significantly without any detectable effect on APD. Application of H2O2 increased both SV and APD, but the enhancement of SV was the greater, so relative SV increased. Longer exposure to H2O2 resulted in the development of early afterdepolarizations accompanied by tremendously increased SV. Pretreatment with the reductive cocktail prevented both elevation in relative SV and the development of afterdepolarizations. The results suggest that the increased beat-to-beat variability during an oxidative stress contributes to the generation of cardiac arrhythmias.

Improved self-management skills predict improvements in quality of life and depression in patients with chronic disorders.

PubMed

Musekamp, Gunda; Bengel, Jürgen; Schuler, Michael; Faller, Hermann

2016-08-01

Self-management programs aim to improve patients' skills to manage their chronic condition in everyday life. Improvement in self-management is assumed to bring about improvements in more distal outcomes, such as quality of life. This study aimed to test the hypothesis that changes in self-reported self-management skills observed after participation in self-management programs predict changes in both quality of life and depressive symptoms three months later. Using latent change modeling, the relationship between changes in latent variables over three time points (start and end of rehabilitation, after three months) was analysed. The sample comprised 580 patients with different chronic conditions treated in inpatient rehabilitation clinics. The influence of additional predictor variables (age, sex, perceived social support) and type of disorder as a moderator variable was also tested. Changes in self-reported self-management skills after rehabilitation predicted changes in both quality of life and depressive symptoms at the end of rehabilitation and the 3 months follow-up. These relationships remained significant after the inclusion of other predictor variables and were similar across disorders. The findings provide support for the hypothesis that improvements in proximal outcomes of self-management programs may foster improvements in distal outcomes. Further studies should investigate treatment mechanisms. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Rainfall erosivity and sediment load over the Poyang Lake Basin under variable climate and human activities since the 1960s

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gu, Chaojun; Mu, Xingmin; Gao, Peng; Zhao, Guangju; Sun, Wenyi; Yu, Qiang

2018-03-01

Accelerated soil erosion exerts adverse effects on water and soil resources. Rainfall erosivity reflects soil erosion potential driven by rainfall, which is essential for soil erosive risk assessment. This study investigated the spatiotemporal variation of rainfall erosivity and its impacts on sediment load over the largest freshwater lake basin of China (the Poyang Lake Basin, abbreviate to PYLB). The spatiotemporal variations of rainfall erosivity from 1961 to 2014 based on 57 meteorological stations were detected using the Mann-Kendall test, linear regression, and kriging interpolation method. The sequential t test analysis of regime shift (STARS) was employed to identify the abrupt changes of sediment load, and the modified double mass curve was used to assess the impacts of rainfall erosivity variability on sediment load. It was found that there was significant increase (P < 0.05) in rainfall erosivity in winter due to the significant increase in January over the last 54 years, whereas no trend in year and other seasons. Annual sediment load into the Poyang Lake (PYL) decreased significantly (P < 0.01) between 1961 and 2014, and the change-points were identified in both 1985 and 2003. It was found that take annual rainfall erosivity as the explanatory variables of the double mass curves is more reasonable than annual rainfall and erosive rainfall. The estimation via the modified double mass curve demonstrated that compared with the period before change-point (1961-1984), the changes of rainfall erosivity increased 8.0 and 2.1% of sediment load during 1985-2002 and 2003-2014, respectively. Human activities decreased 50.2 and 69.7% of sediment load during the last two periods, which indicated effects of human activities on sediment load change was much larger than that of rainfall erosivity variability in the PYLB.

Exercise motivation, eating, and body image variables as predictors of weight control.

PubMed

Teixeira, Pedro J; Going, Scott B; Houtkooper, Linda B; Cussler, Ellen C; Metcalfe, Lauve L; Blew, Rob M; Sardinha, Luis B; Lohman, Timothy G

2006-01-01

This study investigated changes in psychosocial variables related to exercise, eating, and body image during a weight reduction program and evaluated their association with weight loss in middle-aged overweight and obese women up to 1 yr after intervention. The 136 participants (age, 48.1 +/- 4.4 yr; weight, 30.6 +/- 5.6 kg x m(-2)) who completed the 4-month lifestyle weight reduction program (86% retention), losing -6.2 +/- 4.6% (P < 0.001) of their initial weight, were followed up for 12 additional months. Of these, 82% completed 16-month assessments (weight change, -5.5 +/- 7.7%, P < 0.001). Psychosocial variables were assessed by validated instruments in standardized conditions at baseline and after the intervention (4 months). Compared with 4-month assessments, body weight did not change at 16 months (P > 0.09). Changes in eating restraint, disinhibition, and hunger; exercise, self-efficacy, and intrinsic motivation; body shape concerns; and physical self-worth were associated with weight change at 4 months (P < 0.001, except hunger, P < 0.05). Baseline-adjusted 4-month scores in all psychosocial variables also predicted weight change from baseline to 16 months (P < 0.01), except hunger (P > 0.05). After controlling for 4-month weight change and other covariates, increases in exercise intrinsic motivation remained predictive of weight loss at 16 months (P < 0.05). Multiple linear regression showed that eating variables were significant and independent correlates of short-term weight change, whereas changes in exercise variables were stronger predictors of longer term weight outcomes. Results highlight the importance of cognitive processes during weight control and support the notion that initial focus on diet is associated with short-term weight loss, while change in exercise-related motivational factors, with a special emphasis on intrinsic sources of motivation (e.g., interest and enjoyment in exercise), play a more important role in longer term weight management.

Mean-level change and intraindividual variability in self-esteem and depression among high-risk children

PubMed Central

Kim, Jungmeen; Cicchetti, Dante

2012-01-01

This study investigated mean-level changes and intraindividual variability of self-esteem among maltreated (n=142) and nonmaltreated (n=109) school-aged children from low-income families. Longitudinal factor analysis revealed higher temporal stability of self-esteem among maltreated children compared to nonmaltreated children. Cross-domain latent growth curve models indicated that nonmaltreated children showed higher initial levels and greater increases in self-esteem than maltreated children, and that the initial levels of self-esteem were significantly associated with depressive symptoms among maltreated and nonmaltreated children. The average level (mean of repeated measurements) of self-esteem was predictive of depression at the final occasion for both maltreated and nonmaltreated children. For nonmaltreated children intraindividual variability of self-esteem had a direct contribution to prediction of depression. The findings enhance our understanding of developmental changes in self-esteem and the role of the average level and within-person variability of self-esteem in predicting depressive symptoms among high-risk children. PMID:22822280

Macroalgal communities on multi-stressed coral reefs in the Caribbean: Long-term changes, spatial variations, and relationships with environmental variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sangil, Carlos; Guzman, Hector M.

2016-11-01

Long-term changes in macroalgal cover, spatial variation between macroalgal communities, and relationships with environmental variables and benthic groups were assessed in coral reefs along the Caribbean coast of Panama. Sampling was conducted in two regions: Western and Central. Data collected between 2000 and 2012 showed a continuous increase in macroalgal abundance, although patterns differed according to region and site. There were differences in macroalgal communities between regions, as well as within regions between different wave-exposure levels. There were also differences between sites within regions exposed to the same level of wave action. Multivariate analysis found that wave exposure along with herbivore density (Echinometra viridis) and sedimentation were the variables that explained most of the variability between communities. Other variables such as Echinometra lucunter and Diadema antillarum densities, fish density, productivity, and live coral cover had significant relationships with community structure, but explained less of the variability.

Impact of advanced monitoring variables on intraoperative clinical decision-making: an international survey.

PubMed

Joosten, Alexandre; Desebbe, Olivier; Suehiro, Koichi; Essiet, Mfonobong; Alexander, Brenton; Ricks, Cameron; Rinehart, Joseph; Faraoni, David; Cecconi, Maurizio; Van der Linden, Philippe; Cannesson, Maxime

2017-02-01

To assess the relationship between the addition of advanced monitoring variables and changes in clinical decision-making. A 15-questions survey was anonymously emailed to international experts and physician members of five anesthesia societies which focused on assessing treatment decisions of clinicians during three realistic clinical scenarios measured at two distinct time points. The first is when typical case information and basic monitoring (T1) were provided, and then once again after the addition of advanced monitoring variables (T2). We hypothesized that the addition of advanced variables would increase the incidence of an optimal therapeutic decision (a priori defined as the answer with the highest percentage of expert agreement) and decrease the variability among the physician's suggested treatments. The survey was completed by 18 experts and 839 physicians. Overall, adding advanced monitoring did not significantly increase physician response accuracy, with the least substantial changes noted on questions related to volume expansion or vasopressor administration. Moreover, advanced monitoring data did not significantly decrease the high level of initial practice variability in physician suggested treatments (P = 0.13), in contrast to the low variability observed within the expert group (P = 0.039). Additionally, 5-10 years of practice (P < 0.0001) and a cardiovascular subspecialty (P = 0.048) were both physician characteristics associated with a higher rate of optimal therapeutic decisions. The addition of advanced variables was of limited benefit for most physicians, further indicating the need for more in depth education on the clinical value and technical understanding of such variables.

Another look at the relationship between socioeconomic factors and the black-white health benefit inequality.

PubMed

Ohn, Jonathan; McMahon, Lauren; Carter, Tony

2006-01-01

This paper illustrates the black-white disparity in health benefit coverage and the socioeconomic variables-unemployment, income, and education. The health benefit disparity is strongly related to the disparity in underlying socioeconomic variables. Moreover, the time-series examination reveals that the change in white workers' health insurance coverage is largely determined by its year-to-year persistence and the labor market tightness (or the business cycle), while that of black workers is largely determined by the change in their earnings with a slight persistence. The effect of the change in annual earnings seems to dominate the effect of the labor market condition (unemployment rate) and other variables. Finally, although marginally significant, an increase in the attainment of higher education (college) has a positive effect on the black-white health benefit disparity.

Patterns of Change in Psychological Variables Leading up to Competition in Superior Versus Inferior Performers.

PubMed

Boat, Ruth; Taylor, Ian M

2015-06-01

The study explored patterns of change in a number of potentially performance-related variables (i.e., fatigue, social support, self-efficacy, autonomous motivation, mental skills) during the lead-up to a competitive triathlon, and whether these patterns of change differed for relatively superior versus inferior performers. Forty-two triathletes completed an inventory measuring the study variables every other day during a 2-week period leading up to competition. Performance was assessed using participants' race time, and using a self-referenced relative score compared with personal best times. Multilevel growth curve analyses revealed significant differences in growth trajectories over the 2-week period in mental skills use, social support, and fatigue. The results provide novel insight into how athletes' fluctuating psychological state in the 2 weeks before competition may be crucial in determining performance.

Human-modified temperatures induce species changes: Joint attribution.

PubMed

Root, Terry L; MacMynowski, Dena P; Mastrandrea, Michael D; Schneider, Stephen H

2005-05-24

Average global surface-air temperature is increasing. Contention exists over relative contributions by natural and anthropogenic forcings. Ecological studies attribute plant and animal changes to observed warming. Until now, temperature-species connections have not been statistically attributed directly to anthropogenic climatic change. Using modeled climatic variables and observed species data, which are independent of thermometer records and paleoclimatic proxies, we demonstrate statistically significant "joint attribution," a two-step linkage: human activities contribute significantly to temperature changes and human-changed temperatures are associated with discernible changes in plant and animal traits. Additionally, our analyses provide independent testing of grid-box-scale temperature projections from a general circulation model (HadCM3).

Trunk-pelvis coordination during turning: A cross sectional study of young adults with and without a history of low back pain.

PubMed

Smith, Jo Armour; Kulig, Kornelia

2016-07-01

During steady-state locomotion, symptomatic individuals with low back pain demonstrate reduced ability to modulate coordination between the trunk and the pelvis in the axial plane. It is unclear if this is also true during functional locomotor perturbations such as changing direction, or if this change in coordination adaptability persists between symptomatic episodes. The purpose of this study was to compare trunk-pelvis coordination during walking turns in healthy individuals and asymptomatic individuals with a history of low back pain. Participants performed multiple ipsilateral turns. Axial plane inter-segmental coordination and stride-to-stride coordination variability were quantified using the vector coding technique. Frequency of coordination mode and amplitude of coordination variability was compared between groups using Wilcoxon signed-rank tests and paired t-tests respectively. During stance phase of the turn, there was no significant difference in either inter-segmental coordination or coordination variability between groups. Inter-segmental coordination between the trunk and the pelvis was predominantly inphase during this part of the turn. During swing phase, patterns of coordination were more diversified, and individuals with a history of low back pain had significantly greater trunk phase coordination than healthy controls. Coordination variability was the same in both groups. Changes in trunk-pelvis coordination are evident between symptomatic episodes in individuals with a history of low back pain. However, previously demonstrated decreases in coordination variability were not found between symptomatic episodes in individuals with recurrent low back pain and therefore may represent a response to concurrent pain rather than a persistent change in motor control. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Morphometric analysis of developing crowns of maxillary primary second molars and permanent first molars in humans.

PubMed

Peretz, B; Nevis, N; Smith, P

1998-07-01

The purpose of this study was firstly to characterize the changes occurring in size and form of the mineralizing maxillary second primary molar and first permanent molar crowns, and secondly to determine if similar changes in size and form characterize enamel apposition in the crowns of these teeth. Twenty-five primary second molars and 20 maxillary permanent first molars at various stages of development, found in archaeological excavations in Israel, were examined for a number of measured variables using image analyser software. Teeth were divided into two groups according to their stage of development: stage I included all teeth at an early stage of development in which mesiobuccal-cusp height was less than 5 mm for the primary molar and 5.9 mm for the permanent molar; stage 2 included all teeth in later stages of development where mesiobuccal-cusp height was greater than these values. In the primary molar, a significant increase was found between the two stages in almost all variables. Significant correlations were also found between all intercusp distances and the external variables. Strong correlations between height of the mesiobuccal cusp and all external and internal variables were noted in stage 1, but fewer in stage 2. In the permanent tooth, no increase was observed in intercusp distances and very few correlations were found between and among the variables. The results suggest that a change in the shape of the maxillary primary second molar occurs during formation, with the lingual cusp tips moving lingually and distally, and the distobuccal cusp tips moving distally. No change occurs in the shape of the maxillary permanent first molar during crown formation. Growth of the maxillary primary second and permanent first molar crowns occurs in 'bursts' of development.

Addressing Air, Land & Water Nitrogen Issues under Changing Climate Trends & Variability

EPA Science Inventory

The climate of western U.S. dairy producing states is anticipated to change significantly over the next 50 to 75 years. A multimedia modeling system based upon the “nitrogen cascade” concept has been configured to address three aspects of sustainability (environmenta...

Patterns of change in high frequency precipitation variability over North America.

PubMed

Roque-Malo, Susana; Kumar, Praveen

2017-09-18

Precipitation variability encompasses attributes associated with the sequencing and duration of events of the full range of magnitudes. However, climate change studies have largely focused on extreme events. Using analyses of long-term weather station data, we show that high frequency events, such as fraction of wet days in a year and average duration of wet and dry periods, are undergoing significant changes across North America. Further, these changes are more prevalent and larger than those associated with extremes. Such trends also exist for events of a range of magnitudes. Existence of localized clusters with opposing trend to that of broader geographic variation illustrates the role of microclimate and other drivers of trends. Such hitherto unknown patterns over the entire North American continent have the potential to significantly inform our characterization of the resilience and vulnerability of a broad range of ecosystems and agricultural and socio-economic systems. They can also set new benchmarks for climate model assessments.

Variations in Kinematics during Clinical Gait Analysis in Stroke Patients

PubMed Central

Boudarham, Julien; Roche, Nicolas; Pradon, Didier; Bonnyaud, Céline; Bensmail, Djamel; Zory, Raphael

2013-01-01

In addition to changes in spatio-temporal and kinematic parameters, patients with stroke exhibit fear of falling as well as fatigability during gait. These changes could compromise interpretation of data from gait analysis. The aim of this study was to determine if the gait of hemiplegic patients changes significantly over successive gait trials. Forty two stroke patients and twenty healthy subjects performed 9 gait trials during a gait analysis session. The mean and variability of spatio-temporal and kinematic joint parameters were analyzed during 3 groups of consecutive gait trials (1–3, 4–6 and 7–9). Principal component analysis was used to reduce the number of variables from the joint kinematic waveforms and to identify the parts of the gait cycle which changed during the gait analysis session. The results showed that i) spontaneous gait velocity and the other spatio-temporal parameters significantly increased, and ii) gait variability decreased, over the last 6 gait trials compared to the first 3, for hemiplegic patients but not healthy subjects. Principal component analysis revealed changes in the sagittal waveforms of the hip, knee and ankle for hemiplegic patients after the first 3 gait trials. These results suggest that at the beginning of the gait analysis session, stroke patients exhibited phase of adaptation,characterized by a “cautious gait” but no fatigue was observed. PMID:23799100

Solar Influences on El Nino/Southern Oscillation Dynamics Over the Last Millennium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stevenson, S.; Capotondi, A.; Fasullo, J.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.

2017-12-01

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exhibits considerable differences between the evolution of individual El Nino and La Nina events (`ENSO diversity'), with significant implications for impacts studies. However, the degree to which external forcing may affect ENSO diversity is not well understood, due to both internal variability and potentially compensatory contributions from multiple forcings. The Community Earth System Model Last Millennium Ensemble (CESM LME) provides an ideal testbed for studying the sensitivity of twentieth century ENSO to forced climate changes, as it contains many realizations of the 850-2005 period with differing combinations of forcings. Metrics of ENSO amplitude and diversity are compared across LME simulations, and although forced changes to ENSO amplitude are generally small, forced changes to diversity are often detectable. Anthropogenic changes to greenhouse gas and ozone/aerosol emissions modify the persistence of Eastern and Central Pacific El Nino events, through shifts in the upwelling and zonal advective feedbacks; these influences generally cancel one another over the twentieth century. Natural forcings are generally small over the 20th century, but when epochs of high/low solar irradiance are compared, distinct shifts in the development and termination of El Nino events can be observed. This indicates that solar variability can indeed have a significant role to play in setting the characteristics of tropical Pacific climate variability. Implications for configuring and evaluating projections of future climate change will be discussed.

Factors influencing soft tissue profile changes following orthodontic treatment in patients with Class II Division 1 malocclusion.

PubMed

Maetevorakul, Suhatcha; Viteporn, Smorntree

2016-01-01

Several studies have shown soft tissue profile changes after orthodontic treatment in Class II Division 1 patients. However, a few studies have described factors influencing the soft tissue changes. The purpose of this study was to investigate the factors influencing the soft tissue profile changes following orthodontic treatment in Class II Division 1 patients. The subjects comprised 104 Thai patients age 8-16 years who presented Class II Division 1 malocclusions and were treated with different orthodontic modalities comprising cervical headgear, Class II traction and extraction of the four first premolars. The profile changes were evaluated from the lateral cephalograms before and after treatment by means of the X-Y coordinate system. Significant soft tissue profile changes were evaluated by paired t test at a 0.05 significance level. The correlations among significant soft tissue changes and independent variables comprising treatment modality, age, sex, pretreatment skeletal, dental and soft tissue morphology were evaluated by stepwise multiple regression analysis at a 0.05 significance level. The multiple regression analysis indicated that different treatment modalities, age, sex, pretreatment skeletal, dental and soft tissue morphology were related to the profile changes. The predictive power of these variables on the soft tissue profile changes ranged from 9.9 to 40.3%. Prediction of the soft tissue profile changes following treatment of Class II Division 1 malocclusion from initial patient morphology, age, sex and types of treatment was complicated and required several variables to explain their variations. Upper lip change in horizontal direction could be found only at the stomion superius and was less predictable than those of the lower lip. Variations in upper lip retraction at the stomion superius were explained by types of treatment (R(2) = 0.099), whereas protrusion of the lower lip at the labrale inferius was correlated with initial inclination of the lower incisor (L1 to NB), jaw relation (ANB angle), lower lip thickness and sex (R(2) = 0.403). Prediction of chin protrusion at the soft tissue pogonion was also low predictable (R(2) = 0.190) depending upon sex, age and initial mandibular plane angle (SN-GoGn). Additionally, age and sex also had mainly effect on change of the soft tissue profile in the vertical direction.

Day-to-day variability in spot urine albumin-creatinine ratio.

PubMed

Naresh, Chetana N; Hayen, Andrew; Weening, Alexander; Craig, Jonathan C; Chadban, Steven J

2013-12-01

Accurate quantification of albuminuria is important in the diagnosis and management of chronic kidney disease. The reference test, a timed urinary albumin excretion, is cumbersome and prone to collection errors. Spot urine albumin-creatinine ratio (ACR) is convenient and commonly used, but random day-to-day variability in ACR measurements has not been assessed. Prospective cohort study of day-to-day variability in spot urine ACR measurements. Clinically stable outpatients (N = 157) attending a university hospital clinic in Australia between July 2007 and April 2010. Spot urine ACR variability was assessed and repeatability limits were determined using fractional polynomials. ACRs were measured from spot urine samples collected at 9:00 am on consecutive days and 24-hour urine albuminuria was measured concurrently. Paired ACRs were obtained from 157 patients (median age, 56 years; 60% men; median daily albumin excretion, 226 [range, 2.5-14,000] mg/d). Day-to-day variability was substantial and increased in absolute terms, but decreased in relative terms, with increasing baseline ACR. For patients with normoalbuminuria (ACR < 3 mg/mmol [<27 mg/g]), a change greater than ±467% (0-17 mg/mmol [0-150 mg/g]) is required to indicate a significant change in albuminuria status with 95% certainty; for those with microalbuminuria (ACR of 3-30 mg/mmol [27-265 mg/g]), a change of ±170% (0-27 mg/mmol [0-239 mg/g]) is required; for those with macroalbuminuria (ACR > 30 mg/mmol [>265 mg/g]), a change of ±83% (5-55 mg/mmol [44-486 mg/g]) is required; and for those with nephrotic-range proteinuria (ACR > 300 mg/mmol [>2,652 mg/g]), a change of ±48% (158-443 mg/mmol [1,397-3,916 mg/g]) is needed to represent a significant change. These study results need to be replicated in other ethnic groups. Changes in chronic kidney disease status attributed to therapy or disease progression, when based solely on a change in ACR, may be incorrect unless the potential for day-to-day biological variation has been considered. Only relatively large changes are likely to indicate a change in disease status. Copyright © 2013 National Kidney Foundation, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Plant Trait Diversity Buffers Variability in Denitrification Potential over Changes in Season and Soil Conditions

PubMed Central

McGill, Bonnie M.; Sutton-Grier, Ariana E.; Wright, Justin P.

2010-01-01

Background Denitrification is an important ecosystem service that removes nitrogen (N) from N-polluted watersheds, buffering soil, stream, and river water quality from excess N by returning N to the atmosphere before it reaches lakes or oceans and leads to eutrophication. The denitrification enzyme activity (DEA) assay is widely used for measuring denitrification potential. Because DEA is a function of enzyme levels in soils, most ecologists studying denitrification have assumed that DEA is less sensitive to ambient levels of nitrate (NO3 −) and soil carbon and thus, less variable over time than field measurements. In addition, plant diversity has been shown to have strong effects on microbial communities and belowground processes and could potentially alter the functional capacity of denitrifiers. Here, we examined three questions: (1) Does DEA vary through the growing season? (2) If so, can we predict DEA variability with environmental variables? (3) Does plant functional diversity affect DEA variability? Methodology/Principal Findings The study site is a restored wetland in North Carolina, US with native wetland herbs planted in monocultures or mixes of four or eight species. We found that denitrification potentials for soils collected in July 2006 were significantly greater than for soils collected in May and late August 2006 (p<0.0001). Similarly, microbial biomass standardized DEA rates were significantly greater in July than May and August (p<0.0001). Of the soil variables measured—soil moisture, organic matter, total inorganic nitrogen, and microbial biomass—none consistently explained the pattern observed in DEA through time. There was no significant relationship between DEA and plant species richness or functional diversity. However, the seasonal variance in microbial biomass standardized DEA rates was significantly inversely related to plant species functional diversity (p<0.01). Conclusions/Significance These findings suggest that higher plant functional diversity may support a more constant level of DEA through time, buffering the ecosystem from changes in season and soil conditions. PMID:20661464

The role of the oceans in changes of the Earth's climate system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

von Schuckmann, K.

2016-12-01

Any changes to the Earth's climate system affect an imbalance of the Earth's energy budget due to natural or human made climate forcing. The current positive Earth's energy imbalance is mostly caused by human activity, and is driving global warming. Variations in the world's ocean heat storage and its associated volume changes are a key factor to gauge global warming, to assess changes in the Earth's energy budget and to estimate contributions to the global sea level budget. Present-day sea-level rise is one of the major symptoms of the current positive Earth Energy Imbalance. Sea level also responds to natural climate variability that is superimposing and altering the global warming signal. The most prominent signature in the global mean sea level interannual variability is caused by El Niño-Southern Oscillation. It has been also shown that sea level variability in other regions of the Indo-Pacific area significantly alters estimates of the rate of sea level rise, i.e. in the Indonesian archipelago. In summary, improving the accuracy of our estimates of global Earth's climate state and variability is critical for advancing the understanding and prediction of the evolution of our climate, and an overview on recent findings on the role of the global ocean in changes of the Earth's climate system with particular focus on sea level variability in the Indo-Pacific region will be given in this contribution.

The Remarkable Change in Euro-American Cranial Shape and Size.

PubMed

Jantz, Richard L; Jantz, Lee Meadows

2016-01-01

Secular changes in stature, weight, or other components of the body that can be obtained from historical records have been extensively studied. Cranial change has been central to anthropology for more than a century, but the focus has normally been on change measured in centuries or millennia. Cranial change measured in decades, normally considered to result from plastic response to the environment, has been less studied. This article reports on change in cranial vault dimensions in white Americans. Variables were glabello-occipital length (GOL), basion-bregma height (BBH), basion-nasion length (BNL), maximum cranial breadth (XCB), and biauricular breadth (AUB). Cranial size was calculated as the geometric mean of these variables, and shape dimensions were calculated as described by Darroch and Mosimann ( 1985 ). Cranial module and cranial capacity were also calculated. Samples consisted of 1,112 males and 668 females complete for those variables. Samples were organized into 10-year birth cohorts, with birth years ranging from 1820 to 1990. One-way ANOVA was used to test for variation among cohorts. The pattern of secular change was examined graphically and was compared with quality-of-life and environmental indicators, including stature, infant mortality, calories per person, and relative number of immigrants. All variables showed significant secular change, but BBH, XCB, and BNL responded most strongly. Over the past 170 years, crania became relatively higher, narrower, and larger with longer cranial bases. Both sexes changed, but female change was less pronounced than male change. The cranial variables tracked secular changes in stature, most prominently BNL. The highest correlation between a cranial variable and quality-of-life indicator was BBH and infant mortality. We are not able to identify specific causes of secular changes in cranial morphology. However, given that modern Americans have introduced themselves into a novel environment never before experienced by human populations, we consider it unlikely that it is pure plasticity. In addition to possible plastic responses, it is likely that selection, acting through the dramatic changes in infant mortality, is also involved.

The Influence of Teacher Variables on Climate Change Science Literacy of Geography Teachers in the Western Cape, South Africa

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Anyanwu, Raymond; Le Grange, Lesley

2017-01-01

Teachers play an important role in promoting climate change literacy in schools, but not much is known about which teacher characteristics significantly influence Geography teachers' climate change science literacy. The purpose of this study is to determine the influence of teachers' characteristics such as gender, age, qualification,…

Attributing carbon changes in conterminous U.S. forests to disturbance and non-disturbance factors from 1901 to 2010

Treesearch

Fangmin Zhang; Jing M. Chen; Yude Pan; Richard A. Birdsey; Shuanghe Shen; Weimin Ju; Liming. He

2012-01-01

Recent climate variability (increasing temperature, droughts) and atmospheric composition changes (nitrogen deposition, rising CO2 concentration) along with harvesting, wildfires, and insect infestations have had significant effects on U.S. forest carbon (C) uptake. In this study, we attribute C changes in the conterminous U.S. forests to...

Explaining Changing Suicide Rates in Norway 1948-2004: The Role of Social Integration

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Barstad, Anders

2008-01-01

Using Norway 1948-2004 as a case, I test whether changes in variables related to social integration can explain changes in suicide rates. The method is the Box-Jenkins approach to time-series analysis. Different aspects of family integration contribute significantly to the explanation of Norwegian suicide rates in this period. The estimated effect…

Parent predictors of child weight change in family based behavioral obesity treatment.

PubMed

Boutelle, Kerri N; Cafri, Guy; Crow, Scott J

2012-07-01

Family based behavioral treatment for overweight and obese children includes parenting skills targeting the modification of child eating and activity change. The purpose of this study was to examine parenting skills and parent weight change as predictors of child weight change in a sample of 80 parent/child dyads who were enrolled in a family based behavioral weight loss program for childhood obesity. Eighty overweight and obese children and their parents who enrolled in treatment in two sites were included in the study. Variables included those related to parent modeling (parent BMI), home food environment, parenting (parent and child report), and demographics. Results suggested that parent BMI change was a significant predictor of child weight, in that a reduction of 1 BMI unit in the parent was associated with a 0.255 reduction in child BMI. None of the other variables were significant in the final model. This study is consistent with other research showing that parent weight change is a key contributor to child weight change in behavioral treatment for childhood obesity. Researchers and clinicians should focus on encouraging parents to lose weight to assist their overweight and obese child in weight management.

Importance of coastal change variables in determining vulnerability to sea- and lake-level change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pendleton, E.A.; Thieler, E.R.; Williams, S.J.

2010-01-01

In 2001, the U.S. Geological Survey began conducting scientific assessments of coastal vulnerability to potential future sea- and lake-level changes in 22 National Park Service sea- and lakeshore units. Coastal park units chosen for the assessment included a variety of geological and physical settings along the U.S. Atlantic, Pacific, Gulf of Mexico, Gulf of Alaska, Caribbean, and Great Lakes shorelines. This research is motivated by the need to understand and anticipate coastal changes caused by accelerating sea-level rise, as well as lake-level changes caused by climate change, over the next century. The goal of these assessments is to provide information that can be used to make long-term (decade to century) management decisions. Here we analyze the results of coastal vulnerability assessments for several coastal national park units. Index-based assessments quantify the likelihood that physical changes may occur based on analysis of the following variables: tidal range, ice cover, wave height, coastal slope, historical shoreline change rate, geomorphology, and historical rate of relative sea- or lake-level change. This approach seeks to combine a coastal system's susceptibility to change with its natural ability to adapt to changing environmental conditions, and it provides a measure of the system's potential vulnerability to the effects of sea- or lake-level change. Assessments for 22 park units are combined to evaluate relationships among the variables used to derive the index. Results indicate that Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico parks have the highest vulnerability rankings relative to other park regions. A principal component analysis reveals that 99% of the index variability can be explained by four variables: geomorphology, regional coastal slope, water-level change rate, and mean significant wave height. Tidal range, ice cover, and historical shoreline change are not as important when the index is evaluated at large spatial scales (thousands of kilometers). ?? 2010 Coastal Education and Research Foundation.

Climate and environmental change drives Ixodes ricinus geographical expansion at the northern range margin.

PubMed

Jore, Solveig; Vanwambeke, Sophie O; Viljugrein, Hildegunn; Isaksen, Ketil; Kristoffersen, Anja B; Woldehiwet, Zerai; Johansen, Bernt; Brun, Edgar; Brun-Hansen, Hege; Westermann, Sebastian; Larsen, Inger-Lise; Ytrehus, Bjørnar; Hofshagen, Merete

2014-01-08

Global environmental change is causing spatial and temporal shifts in the distribution of species and the associated diseases of humans, domesticated animals and wildlife. In the on-going debate on the influence of climate change on vectors and vector-borne diseases, there is a lack of a comprehensive interdisciplinary multi-factorial approach utilizing high quality spatial and temporal data. We explored biotic and abiotic factors associated with the latitudinal and altitudinal shifts in the distribution of Ixodes ricinus observed during the last three decades in Norway using antibodies against Anaplasma phagocytophilum in sheep as indicators for tick presence. Samples obtained from 2963 sheep from 90 farms in 3 ecologically different districts during 1978 - 2008 were analysed. We modelled the presence of antibodies against A. phagocytophilum to climatic-, environmental and demographic variables, and abundance of wild cervids and domestic animals, using mixed effect logistic regressions. Significant predictors were large diurnal fluctuations in ground surface temperature, spring precipitation, duration of snow cover, abundance of red deer and farm animals and bush encroachment/ecotones. The length of the growth season, mean temperature and the abundance of roe deer were not significant in the model. Our results highlight the need to consider climatic variables year-round to disentangle important seasonal variation, climatic threshold changes, climate variability and to consider the broader environmental change, including abiotic and biotic factors. The results offer novel insight in how tick and tick-borne disease distribution might be modified by future climate and environmental change.

Distribution of Personal Income in Agriculture-Dependent Counties of Midwestern States: A Policy Variables Approach.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Goreham, Gary A.; And Others

Significant social, demographic, and economic changes have occurred in the North Central states since 1960. This document examines structural and policy variables related to distribution of income, during the years 1960-80 in the 397 counties defined as agriculture-dependent in 13 North Central states. Personal income distribution has been…

Statistical results on restorative dentistry experiments: effect of the interaction between main variables

PubMed Central

CAVALCANTI, Andrea Nóbrega; MARCHI, Giselle Maria; AMBROSANO, Gláucia Maria Bovi

2010-01-01

Statistical analysis interpretation is a critical field in scientific research. When there is more than one main variable being studied in a research, the effect of the interaction between those variables is fundamental on experiments discussion. However, some doubts can occur when the p-value of the interaction is greater than the significance level. Objective To determine the most adequate interpretation for factorial experiments with p-values of the interaction nearly higher than the significance level. Materials and methods The p-values of the interactions found in two restorative dentistry experiments (0.053 and 0.068) were interpreted in two distinct ways: considering the interaction as not significant and as significant. Results Different findings were observed between the two analyses, and studies results became more coherent when the significant interaction was used. Conclusion The p-value of the interaction between main variables must be analyzed with caution because it can change the outcomes of research studies. Researchers are strongly advised to interpret carefully the results of their statistical analysis in order to discuss the findings of their experiments properly. PMID:20857003

Untangling Trends and Drivers of Changing River Discharge Along Florida's Gulf Coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glodzik, K.; Kaplan, D. A.; Klarenberg, G.

2017-12-01

Along the relatively undeveloped Big Bend coastline of Florida, discharge in many rivers and springs is decreasing. The causes are unclear, though they likely include a combination of groundwater extraction for water supply, climate variability, and altered land use. Saltwater intrusion from altered freshwater influence and sea level rise is causing transformative ecosystem impacts along this flat coastline, including coastal forest die-off and oyster reef collapse. A key uncertainty for understanding river discharge change is predicting discharge from rainfall, since Florida's karstic bedrock stores large amounts of groundwater, which has a long residence time. This study uses Dynamic Factor Analysis (DFA), a multivariate data reduction technique for time series, to find common trends in flow and reveal hydrologic variables affecting flow in eight Big Bend rivers since 1965. The DFA uses annual river flows as response time series, and climate data (annual rainfall and evapotranspiration by watershed) and climatic indices (El Niño Southern Oscillation [ENSO] Index and North Atlantic Oscillation [NAO] Index) as candidate explanatory variables. Significant explanatory variables (one evapotranspiration and three rainfall time series) explained roughly 50% of discharge variation across rivers. Significant trends (representing unexplained variation) were shared among rivers, with geographical grouping of five northern rivers and three southern rivers, along with a strong downward trend affecting six out of eight systems. ENSO and NAO had no significant impact. Advancing knowledge of these dynamics is necessary for forecasting how altered rainfall and temperatures from climate change may impact flows. Improved forecasting is especially important given Florida's reliance on groundwater extraction to support its growing population.

Lung function decline in bronchial asthma.

PubMed

Cibella, Fabio; Cuttitta, Giuseppina; Bellia, Vincenzo; Bucchieri, Salvatore; D'Anna, Silvestre; Guerrera, Daniela; Bonsignore, Giovanni

2002-12-01

We evaluated the longitudinal changes in lung function and the factors associated with FEV(1) changes over time in a sample of asthmatic subjects. FEV(1) measures were recorded every 3 months over a 5-year follow-up period. To compare all subjects independently of body size, FEV(1) values were normalized for the subject's height at the third power. We evaluated the possible effect of age, baseline FEV(1), disease duration, and FEV(1) variability on the rate of change of FEV(1). We studied 142 subjects with asthma diagnosed on the basis of validated clinical and functional criteria. FEV(1) showed a linear decay with aging in each subject. For a subject 1.65 m in height, the median overall FEV(1) decay was 40.9 mL/yr. FEV(1) decay slopes were significantly influenced by age and sex, being steeper in younger male subjects. A significant interaction was found between age and baseline FEV(1): the FEV(1) decay was significantly higher among younger asthmatics with a poorer baseline functional condition. A longer disease duration was associated with a lower FEV(1) slope. FEV(1) variability was strongly associated with an increased rate of FEV(1) decline. FEV(1) decline in patients with bronchial asthma is significantly influenced by baseline FEV(1), disease duration, and FEV(1) variability. Moreover, the rate of FEV(1) decline seems to increase in younger subjects only when the baseline function is poorer.

Evaluating the response of Lake Prespa (SW Balkan) to future climate change projections from a high-resolution model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Schriek, Tim; Varotsos, Konstantinos V.; Giannakopoulos, Christos

2017-04-01

The Mediterranean stands out globally due to its sensitivity to (future) climate change. Projections suggest that the Balkans will experience precipitation and runoff decreases of up to 30% by 2100. However, these projections show large regional spatial variability. Mediterranean lake-wetland systems are particularly threatened by projected climate changes that compound increasingly intensive human impacts (e.g. water extraction, drainage, pollution and dam-building). Protecting the remaining systems is extremely important for supporting global biodiversity. This protection should be based on a clear understanding of individual lake-wetland hydrological responses to future climate changes, which requires fine-resolution projections and a good understanding of the impact of hydro-climate variability on individual lakes. Climate change may directly affect lake level (variability), volume and water temperatures. In turn, these variables influence lake-ecology, habitats and water quality. Land-use intensification and water abstraction multiply these climate-driven changes. To date, there are no projections of future water level and -temperature of individual Mediterranean lakes under future climate scenarios. These are, however, of crucial importance to steer preservation strategies on the relevant catchment-scale. Here we present the first projections of water level and -temperature of the Prespa Lakes covering the period 2071-2100. These lakes are of global significance for biodiversity, and of great regional socio-economic importance as a water resource and tourist attraction. Impact projections are assessed by the Regional Climate Model RCA4 of the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) driven by the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology global climate model MPI-ESM-LR under two RCP future emissions scenarios, the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5, with the simulations carried out in the framework of EURO-CORDEX. Temperature, evapo(transpi)ration and precipitation over the Prespa catchment were simulated with this high horizontal resolution (12 × 12 km) regional climate model. Lake temperatures were derived from surface temperatures based on physical models, while water levels were calculated with the lake water balance model. Climate simulations indicate that annual- and wet season catchment precipitation does not significantly change by the end of the century. The median precipitation decreases, while precipitation variability increases. The percentage of annual precipitation falling in the wet season increases by 5-10%, indicating a stronger seasonality in the precipitation regime. Summer (lake) temperatures and lake surface evaporation will rise significantly under both explored climate change scenarios. Lake impact projections indicate that evaporation changes will cause the water level of Lake Megali Prespa to fall by 5m to 840-839m. The increased precipitation variability will cause large inter-annual water level fluctuations. Average water level may fall even further if: (1) drier summers lead to more water abstraction for irrigation, and (2) there is a reduction in winter snowfall/accumulation and thus less discharge. These findings are of key importance for developing sustainable lake water resource management in a region that is highly vulnerable to future climate change and already experiences significant water stress. Research paves the way for innovative management adaptation strategies focussed on decreasing water abstraction, for example through introducing smart irrigation and selecting more water efficient crops.

Changes in systolic arterial pressure variability are associated with the decreased aerobic performance of rats subjected to physical exercise in the heat.

PubMed

Müller-Ribeiro, Flávia C; Wanner, Samuel P; Santos, Weslley H M; Malheiros-Lima, Milene R; Fonseca, Ivana A T; Coimbra, Cândido C; Pires, Washington

2017-01-01

Enhanced cardiovascular strain is one of the factors that explains degraded aerobic capacity in hot environments. The cardiovascular system is regulated by the autonomic nervous system, whose activity can be indirectly evaluated by analyzing heart rate variability (HRV) and systolic arterial pressure (SAP) variability. However, no study has addressed whether HRV or SAP variability can predict aerobic performance during a single bout of exercise. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate whether there is an association between cardiovascular variability and performance in rats subjected to treadmill running at two ambient temperatures. In addition, this study investigated whether the heat-induced changes in cardiovascular variability and reductions in performance are associated with each other. Male Wistar rats were implanted with a catheter into their carotid artery for pulsatile blood pressure recordings. After recovery from surgery, the animals were subjected to incremental-speed exercise until they were fatigued under temperate (25°C) and hot (35°C) conditions. Impaired performance and exaggerated cardiovascular responses were observed in the hot relative to the temperate environment. Significant and negative correlations between most of the SAP variability components (standard deviation, variance, very low frequency [VLF], and low frequency [LF]) at the earlier stages of exercise and total exercise time were observed in both environmental conditions. Furthermore, the heat-induced changes in the sympathetic components of SAP variability (VLF and LF) were associated with heat-induced impairments in performance. Overall, the results indicate that SAP variability at the beginning of exercise predicts the acute performance of rats. Our findings also suggest that heat impairments in aerobic performance are associated with changes in cardiovascular autonomic control. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Aerobic Fitness of Starter and Non-Starter Soccer Players in the Champion’s League

PubMed Central

Paraskevas, Giorgos; Hadjicharalambous, Marios

2018-01-01

Abstract To identify individual response patterns in selected aerobic fitness variables of regular starters (ST; N = 7) and non-starters (Non-ST; N = 10), top level professional soccer players were tested for maximal oxygen uptake (VO2max), velocity at 4 mM of lactate (V4), velocity at maximal oxygen uptake (νVO2max) and oxygen pulse (O2-pulse) in July and December following consecutive periods of fixture congestion. V4 was the only variable that increased significantly in December compared to July (15.1 ± 0.5 vs. 14.6 ± 0.5, p = 0.001). There was an almost certain beneficial large mean team change for V4 (ES = 1.2 (0.67; 1.57), 100/0/0), while beneficial mean team changes were less likely for νVO2max and O2-pulse [ES = 0.31 (-0.08; 0.70), 68/30/2 and ES = 0.24 (0.01; 0.49), 64/36/0, respectively] and unclear for VO2max (ES = 0.02 (-0.31; 0.70), 18/69/13). With the exception of V4 where 10 out of 17 players (7 ST and 3 Non-ST) showed positive changes higher than the biological variability, all other variables were characterized by a substantial proportion of changes lower than the biological variability. The present study demonstrated that aerobic fitness variables that require maximal effort may be characterized by greater variability of the individual response pattern compared to that of submaximal aerobic fitness variables irrespective of the accumulated game time. Submaximal aerobic fitness variables appear to be more informative in the physiological evaluation of top level soccer players and this may be an advantage during exposure to periods of consecutive games. PMID:29599863

Effects of reaction time variability and age on brain activity during Stroop task performance.

PubMed

Tam, Angela; Luedke, Angela C; Walsh, Jeremy J; Fernandez-Ruiz, Juan; Garcia, Angeles

2015-09-01

Variability in reaction time during task performance may reflect fluctuations in attention and cause reduced performance in goal-directed tasks, yet it is unclear whether the mechanisms behind this phenomenon change with age. Using fMRI, we tested young and cognitively healthy older adults with the Stroop task to determine whether aging affects the neural mechanisms underlying intra-individual reaction time variability. We found significant between-group differences in BOLD activity modulated by reaction time. In older adults, longer reaction times were associated with greater activity in frontoparietal attentional areas, while in younger adults longer reaction times were associated with greater activity in default mode network areas. Our results suggest that the neural correlates of reaction time variability change with healthy aging, reinforcing the concept of functional plasticity to maintain high cognitive function throughout the lifespan.

Interannual to decadal climate variability of sea salt aerosols in the coupled climate model CESM1.0: Climate variability of sea salt aerosols

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xu, Li; Pierce, David W.; Russell, Lynn M.

This study examines multi-year climate variability associated with sea salt aerosols and their contribution to the variability of shortwave cloud forcing (SWCF) using a 150-year simulation for pre-industrial conditions of the Community Earth System Model version 1.0 (CESM1). The results suggest that changes in sea salt and related cloud and radiative properties on interannual timescales are dominated by the ENSO cycle. Sea salt variability on longer (interdecadal) timescales is associated with low-frequency Pacific ocean variability similar to the interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), but does not show a statistically significant spectral peak. A multivariate regression suggests that sea salt aerosol variabilitymore » may contribute to SWCF variability in the tropical Pacific, explaining up to 25-35% of the variance in that region. Elsewhere, there is only a small aerosol influence on SWCF through modifying cloud droplet number and liquid water path that contributes to the change of cloud effective radius and cloud optical depth (and hence cloud albedo), producing a multi-year aerosol-cloud-wind interaction.« less

Enhanced future variability during India's rainy season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menon, Arathy; Levermann, Anders; Schewe, Jacob

2013-04-01

The Indian summer monsoon shapes the livelihood of a large share of the world's population. About 80% of annual precipitation over India occurs during the monsoon season from June through September. Next to its seasonal mean rainfall the day-to-day variability is crucial for the risk of flooding, national water supply and agricultural productivity. Here we show that the latest ensemble of climate model simulations, prepared for the IPCC's AR-5, consistently projects significant increases in day-to-day rainfall variability under unmitigated climate change. While all models show an increase in day-to-day variability, some models are more realistic in capturing the observed seasonal mean rainfall over India than others. While no model's monsoon rainfall exceeds the observed value by more than two standard deviations, half of the models simulate a significantly weaker monsoon than observed. The relative increase in day-to-day variability by the year 2100 ranges from 15% to 48% under the strongest scenario (RCP-8.5), in the ten models which capture seasonal mean rainfall closest to observations. The variability increase per degree of global warming is independent of the scenario in most models, and is 8% +/- 4% per K on average. This consistent projection across 20 comprehensive climate models provides confidence in the results and suggests the necessity of profound adaptation measures in the case of unmitigated climate change.

Untapped genetic variability in Herefords: implications for climate change

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Global climate change (CC) has the potential to significantly alter US cattle productivity. As a result, the creation of genetic resources for a specific environment may be necessary, given that genetic-environmental interactions are present and may become more important. Molecular evaluation of a s...

Attachment change processes in the early years of marriage.

PubMed

Davila, J; Karney, B R; Bradbury, T N

1999-05-01

The authors examined 4 models of attachment change: a contextual model, a social-cognitive model, an individual-difference model, and a diathesis-stress model. Models were examined in a sample of newlyweds over the first 2 years of marriage, using growth curve analyses. Reciprocal processes, whereby attachment representations and interpersonal life circumstances affect one another over time, also were studied. On average, newlyweds became more secure over time. However, there was significant within-subject variability on attachment change that was predicted by intra- and interpersonal factors. Attachment representations changed in response to contextual, social-cognitive, and individual-difference factors. Reciprocal processes between attachment representations and marital variables emerged, suggesting that these factors influence one another in an ongoing way.

Factor analysis and multiple regression between topography and precipitation on Jeju Island, Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Um, Myoung-Jin; Yun, Hyeseon; Jeong, Chang-Sam; Heo, Jun-Haeng

2011-11-01

SummaryIn this study, new factors that influence precipitation were extracted from geographic variables using factor analysis, which allow for an accurate estimation of orographic precipitation. Correlation analysis was also used to examine the relationship between nine topographic variables from digital elevation models (DEMs) and the precipitation in Jeju Island. In addition, a spatial analysis was performed in order to verify the validity of the regression model. From the results of the correlation analysis, it was found that all of the topographic variables had a positive correlation with the precipitation. The relations between the variables also changed in accordance with a change in the precipitation duration. However, upon examining the correlation matrix, no significant relationship between the latitude and the aspect was found. According to the factor analysis, eight topographic variables (latitude being the exception) were found to have a direct influence on the precipitation. Three factors were then extracted from the eight topographic variables. By directly comparing the multiple regression model with the factors (model 1) to the multiple regression model with the topographic variables (model 3), it was found that model 1 did not violate the limits of statistical significance and multicollinearity. As such, model 1 was considered to be appropriate for estimating the precipitation when taking into account the topography. In the study of model 1, the multiple regression model using factor analysis was found to be the best method for estimating the orographic precipitation on Jeju Island.

Parental education predicts change in intelligence quotient after childhood epilepsy surgery.

PubMed

Meekes, Joost; van Schooneveld, Monique M J; Braams, Olga B; Jennekens-Schinkel, Aag; van Rijen, Peter C; Hendriks, Marc P H; Braun, Kees P J; van Nieuwenhuizen, Onno

2015-04-01

To know whether change in the intelligence quotient (IQ) of children who undergo epilepsy surgery is associated with the educational level of their parents. Retrospective analysis of data obtained from a cohort of children who underwent epilepsy surgery between January 1996 and September 2010. We performed simple and multiple regression analyses to identify predictors associated with IQ change after surgery. In addition to parental education, six variables previously demonstrated to be associated with IQ change after surgery were included as predictors: age at surgery, duration of epilepsy, etiology, presurgical IQ, reduction of antiepileptic drugs, and seizure freedom. We used delta IQ (IQ 2 years after surgery minus IQ shortly before surgery) as the primary outcome variable, but also performed analyses with pre- and postsurgical IQ as outcome variables to support our findings. To validate the results we performed simple regression analysis with parental education as the predictor in specific subgroups. The sample for regression analysis included 118 children (60 male; median age at surgery 9.73 years). Parental education was significantly associated with delta IQ in simple regression analysis (p = 0.004), and also contributed significantly to postsurgical IQ in multiple regression analysis (p = 0.008). Additional analyses demonstrated that parental education made a unique contribution to prediction of delta IQ, that is, it could not be replaced by the illness-related variables. Subgroup analyses confirmed the association of parental education with IQ change after surgery for most groups. Children whose parents had higher education demonstrate on average a greater increase in IQ after surgery and a higher postsurgical--but not presurgical--IQ than children whose parents completed at most lower secondary education. Parental education--and perhaps other environmental variables--should be considered in the prognosis of cognitive function after childhood epilepsy surgery. Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2015 International League Against Epilepsy.

A controlled study of changes in conversation following aphasia therapy for anomia

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

This paper investigates the relationship between change in picture naming with anomia therapy and changes in word retrieval in conversations between adults with aphasia and a regular conversational partner. We present data from two therapy projects (Hickin et al. [1] and Best et al. [2]). In each study, therapy involved cueing with the aim of improving retrieval of a set of nouns. Naming of the experimental items was assessed twice prior to therapy and again immediately afterwards. There was a significant change in word finding, as measured by picture naming, for the group and for 11 of the 13 participants. At the same time points, we collected conversations between the person with aphasia and a regular conversational partner. We analysed these using Profile of Word Errors and Retrieval in Speech (Herbert et al. [3]) and investigated a set of conversational variables predicted to change with therapy. Unsurprisingly, the conversation data is not straightforward. There is no significant change on the conversation measures for the group but some changes for individuals. We predicted change in word retrieval after therapy would relate to change in everyday conversations and tested this by correlating the change (post-therapy minus mean pre-therapy) in picture naming with the change in conversation variables. There was a significant positive relationship between the change in picture naming and change in some conversation measures including the number of nouns produced in 5 min of conversation (r = 0.50, p < 0.05, one-tailed) and the number of nouns produced per substantive turn (r = 0.55, p < 0.05, one-tailed). The findings suggest changes in word finding following therapy for aphasia can be reflected in changes in conversation. The clinical implications of the complex results are explored. PMID:21128833

Variability in Global Top-of-Atmosphere Shortwave Radiation Between 2000 and 2005

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Loebe, Norman G.; Wielicki, Bruce A.; Rose, Fred G.; Doelling, David R.

2007-01-01

Measurements from various instruments and analysis techniques are used to directly compare changes in Earth-atmosphere shortwave (SW) top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiation between 2000 and 2005. Included in the comparison are estimates of TOA reflectance variability from published ground-based Earthshine observations and from new satellite-based CERES, MODIS and ISCCP results. The ground-based Earthshine data show an order-of-magnitude more variability in annual mean SW TOA flux than either CERES or ISCCP, while ISCCP and CERES SW TOA flux variability is consistent to 40%. Most of the variability in CERES TOA flux is shown to be dominated by variations global cloud fraction, as observed using coincident CERES and MODIS data. Idealized Earthshine simulations of TOA SW radiation variability for a lunar-based observer show far less variability than the ground-based Earthshine observations, but are still a factor of 4-5 times more variable than global CERES SW TOA flux results. Furthermore, while CERES global albedos exhibit a well-defined seasonal cycle each year, the seasonal cycle in the lunar Earthshine reflectance simulations is highly variable and out-of-phase from one year to the next. Radiative transfer model (RTM) approaches that use imager cloud and aerosol retrievals reproduce most of the change in SW TOA radiation observed in broadband CERES data. However, assumptions used to represent the spectral properties of the atmosphere, clouds, aerosols and surface in the RTM calculations can introduce significant uncertainties in annual mean changes in regional and global SW TOA flux.

Variability in global top-of-atmosphere shortwave radiation between 2000 and 2005

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loeb, Norman G.; Wielicki, Bruce A.; Rose, Fred G.; Doelling, David R.

2007-02-01

Measurements from various instruments and analysis techniques are used to directly compare changes in Earth-atmosphere shortwave (SW) top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiation between 2000 and 2005. Included in the comparison are estimates of TOA reflectance variability from published ground-based Earthshine observations and from new satellite-based CERES, MODIS and ISCCP results. The ground-based Earthshine data show an order-of-magnitude more variability in annual mean SW TOA flux than either CERES or ISCCP, while ISCCP and CERES SW TOA flux variability is consistent to 40%. Most of the variability in CERES TOA flux is shown to be dominated by variations global cloud fraction, as observed using coincident CERES and MODIS data. Idealized Earthshine simulations of TOA SW radiation variability for a lunar-based observer show far less variability than the ground-based Earthshine observations, but are still a factor of 4-5 times more variable than global CERES SW TOA flux results. Furthermore, while CERES global albedos exhibit a well-defined seasonal cycle each year, the seasonal cycle in the lunar Earthshine reflectance simulations is highly variable and out-of-phase from one year to the next. Radiative transfer model (RTM) approaches that use imager cloud and aerosol retrievals reproduce most of the change in SW TOA radiation observed in broadband CERES data. However, assumptions used to represent the spectral properties of the atmosphere, clouds, aerosols and surface in the RTM calculations can introduce significant uncertainties in annual mean changes in regional and global SW TOA flux.

Analysis of climate and anthropogenic impacts on runoff in the Lower Pra River Basin of Ghana.

PubMed

Awotwi, Alfred; Anornu, Geophrey Kwame; Quaye-Ballard, Jonathan; Annor, Thompson; Forkuo, Eric Kwabena

2017-12-01

The Lower Pra River Basin (LPRB), located in the forest zone of southern Ghana has experienced changes due to variability in precipitation and diverse anthropogenic activities. Therefore, to maintain the functions of the ecosystem for water resources management, planning and sustainable development, it is important to differentiate the impacts of precipitation variability and anthropogenic activities on stream flow changes. We investigated the variability in runoff and quantified the contributions of precipitation and anthropogenic activities on runoff at the LPRB. Analysis of the precipitation-runoff for the period 1970-2010 revealed breakpoints in 1986, 2000, 2004 and 2010 in the LPRB. The periods influenced by anthropogenic activities were categorized into three periods 1987-2000, 2001-2004 and 2005-2010, revealing a decrease in runoff during 1987-2000 and an increase in runoff during 2001-2004 and 2005-2010. Assessment of monthly, seasonal and annual runoff depicted a significant increasing trend in the runoff time series during the dry season. Generally, runoff increased at a rate of 9.98 × 10 7 m 3 yr -1 , with precipitation variability and human activities contributing 17.4% and 82.3% respectively. The dominant small scale alluvial gold mining activity significantly contributes to the net runoff variability in LPRB.

Masculine role adherence and outcomes among men with traumatic brain injury.

PubMed

Schopp, Laura H; Good, Glenn E; Barker, Katharine B; Mazurek, Micah O; Hathaway, Stefani L

2006-10-01

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is a significant health problem disproportionately affecting men and is often associated with changes in masculine role functioning in life domains such as vocational functioning, sexual and inter-personal functioning and personal independence. These changes could have serious implications for men's adjustment following injury. The aim of this study was to examine the relations among traditional masculine role adherence, psychosocial adjustment and rehabilitation outcomes in men with TBI. A correlational design was chosen to examine the relations among variables. Spearman correlations and Wilcoxon Rank Sum tests were used to examine relationships between masculine role variables and outcome variables. The study included 33 men with TBI who had been discharged from inpatient rehabilitation within 5 years. Participants completed surveys on traditional masculine gender role adherence and gender role conflict and additional data, including measures of functional outcome, life satisfaction, psychosocial outcomes and earnings, were obtained through the TBI Model System longitudinal data collection system. The results revealed significant associations between masculine role adherence and satisfaction with life, follow-up earnings and FIM change from admission to discharge. In the current study, particular masculine role variables corresponded to different functional and psychological outcomes. Understanding these differences provides new directions for treatment and offers important information about aspects of traditional masculine roles that may enhance or hinder adjustment to injury.

Spatial variability of climate change impacts on yield of rice and wheat in the Indian Ganga Basin.

PubMed

Mishra, Ashok; Singh, R; Raghuwanshi, N S; Chatterjee, C; Froebrich, Jochen

2013-12-01

Indian Ganga Basin (IGB), one of the most densely populated areas in the world, is facing a significant threat to food grain production, besides increased yield gap between actual and potential production, due to climate change. We have analyzed the spatial variability of climate change impacts on rice and wheat yields at three different locations representing the upper, middle and lower IGB. The DSSAT model is used to simulate the effects of climate variability and climate change on rice and wheat yields by analyzing: (i) spatial crop yield response to current climate, and (ii) impact of a changing climate as projected by two regional climate models, REMO and HadRM3, based on SRES A1B emission scenarios for the period 2011-2040. Results for current climate demonstrate a significant gap between actual and potential yield for upper, middle and lower IGB stations. The analysis based on RCM projections shows that during 2011-2040, the largest reduction in rice and wheat yields will occur in the upper IGB (reduction of potential rice and wheat yield respectively by 43.2% and 20.9% by REMO, and 24.8% and 17.2% by HadRM3). In the lower IGB, however, contrasting results are obtained, with HadRM3 based projections showing an increase in the potential rice and wheat yields, whereas, REMO based projections show decreased potential yields. We discuss the influence of agro-climatic factors; variation in temperature, length of maturity period and leaf area index which are responsible for modeled spatial variability in crop yield response within the IGB. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The impact of multi-decadal sub-surface circulation changes on sea surface chlorophyll patterns in the tropical Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schollaert Uz, S.; Busalacchi, A. J.; Smith, T. M.; Evans, M. N.; Brown, C.; Hackert, E. C.; Wang, X.

2016-12-01

The tropical Pacific is a region of strong forcing where physical oceanography primarily controls biological variability over the seasonal to interannual time scales observed since dedicated ocean color satellite remote sensing began in 1997. To quantify how multi-decadal, climate-scale changes impact marine biological dynamics, we used the correlation with sea-surface temperature and height to reconstruct a 50-year time series of surface chlorophyll concentrations. The reconstruction demonstrates greatest skill away from the coast and within 10o of the equator where chlorophyll variance is greatest and primarily associated with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dynamics and secondarily associated with decadal variability. We observe significant basin-wide differences between east and central Pacific events when the El Niño events are strong: chlorophyll increases with La Niña and decreases with El Niño, with larger declines east of 180o for remotely-forced east Pacific events and west of 180o for locally-forced central Pacific events. Chlorophyll variations also reflect the physical dynamics of Pacific decadal variability with small but significant differences between cool and warm eras: consistent with advection variability west of 180o and likely driven by subsurface changes in the nutricline depth between 110-140oW. Comparisons with output from a fully-coupled biogeochemical model support the hypothesis that this anomalous region is controlled by lower frequency changes in subsurface circulation patterns that transport nutrients to the surface. Basin-wide chlorophyll distributions exhibiting spatial heterogeneity in response to multi-decadal climate forcing imply similar long-term changes in phytoplankton productivity, with implications for the marine food web and the ocean's role as a carbon sink.

Emotional and Cognitive Variables Associated with Contamination-Related Obsessive-Compulsive Symptoms.

PubMed

García-Soriano, Gemma; Rosell-Clari, Vicent; Serrano, Miguel Ángel

2016-05-23

Different variables have been associated with the development/ maintenance of contamination-related obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD), although the relevance of these factors has not been clearly established. The present study aimed to analyze the relevance and specificity of these variables. Forty-five women with high scores on obsessive-compulsive contamination symptoms (n = 16) or checking symptoms (n = 15), or non-clinical scores (n = 14) participated in a behavioral approach/avoidance task (BAT) with a contamination-OCD stimulus. Vulnerability variables and participants' emotional, cognitive, physiological and behavioral responses to the BAT were appraised. Results show that fear of illness was a relevant vulnerability variable specific to contamination participants (p = .001; η2 p = .291). Contamination participants responded with significantly higher subjective disgust (p =.001; η2 p = .269), anxiety (p = .001; η2 p = .297), urge to wash (p < .001; η2 p = 370), threat from emotion (p < .001; η2 p = .338) and contamination severity (p = .002; η2 p = .260) appraisals, and with lower behavioral approach (p = .008; η2 p = .208) than the other two groups. Moreover, contamination participants showed lower heart rate acceleration (p = .046; η2 p = .170) and higher contamination likelihood appraisals (p < .001; η2 p = .342) than the non-clinical group. Urge to wash was predicted by state disgust (R 2 change = .346) and threat from emotion (R 2 change = .088). These responses were predicted by general anxiety sensitivity (R 2 change = .161), disgust propensity (R 2 change = .255) and fear of illness (R 2 change = .116), but not by other vulnerability variables such as dysfunctional beliefs about thoughts (Responsibility and Overestimation of threat) or disgust sensitivity. State disgust, threat from disgust, anxiety sensitivity and fear of illness were found to be the most relevant variables in contamination symptoms.

Variability in isotope discrimination factors in coral reef fishes: implications for diet and food web reconstruction.

PubMed

Wyatt, Alex S J; Waite, Anya M; Humphries, Stuart

2010-10-27

Interpretation of stable isotope ratios of carbon and nitrogen (δ(13)C and δ(15)N) is generally based on the assumption that with each trophic level there is a constant enrichment in the heavier isotope, leading to diet-tissue discrimination factors of 3.4‰ for (15)N (ΔN) and ∼0.5‰ for (13)C (ΔC). Diet-tissue discrimination factors determined from paired tissue and gut samples taken from 152 individuals from 26 fish species at Ningaloo Reef, Western Australia demonstrate a large amount of variability around constant values. While caution is necessary in using gut contents to represent diet due to the potential for high temporal variability, there were significant effects of trophic position and season that may also lead to variability in ΔN under natural conditions. Nitrogen enrichment increased significantly at higher trophic levels (higher tissue δ(15)N), with significantly higher ΔN in carnivorous species. Changes in diet led to significant changes in ΔN, but not tissue δ(15)N, between seasons for several species: Acanthurus triostegus, Chromis viridis, Parupeneus signatus and Pomacentrus moluccensis. These results confirm that the use of meta-analysis averages for ΔN is likely to be inappropriate for accurately determining diets and trophic relationships using tissue stable isotope ratios. Where feasible, discrimination factors should be directly quantified for each species and trophic link in question, acknowledging the potential for significant variation away from meta-analysis averages and, perhaps, controlled laboratory diets and conditions.

Assessment of Air Temperature Trends in the Source Region of Yellow River and Its Sub-Basins, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iqbal, Mudassar; Wen, Jun; Wang, Xin; Lan, Yongchao; Tian, Hui; Anjum, Muhammad Naveed; Adnan, Muhammad

2018-02-01

Changes in climatic variables at the sub-basins scale (having different features of land cover) are crucial for planning, development and designing of water resources infrastructure in the context of climate change. Accordingly, to explore the features of climate changes in sub-basins of the Source Region of Yellow River (SRYR), absolute changes and trends of temperature variables, maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), mean temperature (Tavg) and diurnal temperature range (DTR), were analyzed annually and seasonally by using daily observed air temperature dataset from 1965 to 2014. Results showed that annual Tmax, Tmin and Tavg for the SRYR were experiencing warming trends respectively at the rate of 0.28, 0.36 and 0.31°C (10 yr)-1. In comparison with the 1st period (1965-1989), more absolute changes and trends towards increasing were observed during the 2nd period (1990-2014). Apart from Tangnaihai (a low altitude sub-basin), these increasing trends and changes seemed more significant in other basins with highest magnitude during winter. Among sub-basins the increasing trends were more dominant in Huangheyan compared to other sub-basins. The largest increase magnitude of Tmin, 1.24 and 1.18°C (10 yr)-1, occurred in high altitude sub-basins Jimai and Huangheyan, respectively, while the smallest increase magnitude of 0.23°C (10 yr)-1 occurred in a low altitude sub-basin Tangnaihai. The high elevation difference in Tangnaihai probably was the main reason for the less increase in the magnitude of Tmin. In the last decade, smaller magnitude of trend for all temperature variables signified the signal of cooling in the region. Overall, changes of temperature variables had significant spatial and seasonal variations. It implies that seasonal variations of runoff might be greater or different for each sub-basin.

Breastfeeding status and maternal cardiovascular variables across the postpartum.

PubMed

Groer, Maureen W; Jevitt, Cecilia M; Sahebzamani, Frances; Beckstead, Jason W; Keefe, David L

2013-05-01

There have been recent reports that lactational history is associated with long-term women's health benefits. Most of these studies are epidemiological. If particular cardiometabolic changes that occur during lactation ultimately influence women's health later is unknown. Seventy-one healthy women participated in a prospective postpartum study that provided an opportunity to study anthropometric, endocrine, immune, and behavioral variables across time. Variables studied were heart rate (HR), systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), C-reactive protein, body mass index (BMI), perceived stress, and hormones. A cohort of women without a change in breastfeeding (N=22) or formula feeding (N=23) group membership for 5 months was used for analysis of effects of feeding status. The data were analyzed using factorial repeated measures analysis of variance and analysis of covariance. SBP and HR declined across the postpartum and were significantly lower in breastfeeding compared to formula feeding mothers (p<0.05). These differences remained statistically significant when BMI was added to the model. Other covariates of income, stress, marital status, and ethnicity were not significantly associated with these variables over time. DBP was also lower, but the significance was reduced by the addition of BMI as a covariate. Stress also was lower in breastfeeders, but this effect was reduced by the addition of income as a covariate. These data suggest that there are important physiological differences in women during months of breastfeeding. These may have roles in influencing or programming later risks for a number of midlife diseases.

Patient characteristics and variability in adherence and competence in cognitive-behavioral therapy for panic disorder.

PubMed

Boswell, James F; Gallagher, Matthew W; Sauer-Zavala, Shannon E; Bullis, Jacqueline; Gorman, Jack M; Shear, M Katherine; Woods, Scott; Barlow, David H

2013-06-01

Although associations with outcome have been inconsistent, therapist adherence and competence continues to garner attention, particularly within the context of increasing interest in the dissemination, implementation, and sustainability of evidence-based treatments. To date, research on therapist adherence and competence has focused on average levels across therapists. With a few exceptions, research has failed to address multiple sources of variability in adherence and competence, identify important factors that might account for variability, or take these sources of variability into account when examining associations with symptom change. (a) statistically demonstrate between- and within-therapist variability in adherence and competence ratings and examine patient characteristics as predictors of this variability and (b) examine the relationship between adherence/competence and symptom change. Randomly selected audiotaped sessions from a randomized controlled trial of cognitive-behavioral therapy for panic disorder were rated for therapist adherence and competence. Patients completed a self-report measure of panic symptom severity prior to each session and the Inventory of Interpersonal Problems-Personality Disorder Scale prior to the start of treatment. Significant between- and within-therapist variability in adherence and competence were observed. Adherence and competence deteriorated significantly over the course of treatment. Higher patient interpersonal aggression was associated with decrements in both adherence and competence. Neither adherence nor competence predicted subsequent panic severity. Variability and "drift" in adherence and competence can be observed in controlled trials. Training and implementation efforts should involve continued consultation over multiple cases in order to account for relevant patient factors and promote sustainability across sessions and patients.

Remote-sensing based approach to forecast habitat quality under climate change scenarios.

PubMed

Requena-Mullor, Juan M; López, Enrique; Castro, Antonio J; Alcaraz-Segura, Domingo; Castro, Hermelindo; Reyes, Andrés; Cabello, Javier

2017-01-01

As climate change is expected to have a significant impact on species distributions, there is an urgent challenge to provide reliable information to guide conservation biodiversity policies. In addressing this challenge, we propose a remote sensing-based approach to forecast the future habitat quality for European badger, a species not abundant and at risk of local extinction in the arid environments of southeastern Spain, by incorporating environmental variables related with the ecosystem functioning and correlated with climate and land use. Using ensemble prediction methods, we designed global spatial distribution models for the distribution range of badger using presence-only data and climate variables. Then, we constructed regional models for an arid region in the southeast Spain using EVI (Enhanced Vegetation Index) derived variables and weighting the pseudo-absences with the global model projections applied to this region. Finally, we forecast the badger potential spatial distribution in the time period 2071-2099 based on IPCC scenarios incorporating the uncertainty derived from the predicted values of EVI-derived variables. By including remotely sensed descriptors of the temporal dynamics and spatial patterns of ecosystem functioning into spatial distribution models, results suggest that future forecast is less favorable for European badgers than not including them. In addition, change in spatial pattern of habitat suitability may become higher than when forecasts are based just on climate variables. Since the validity of future forecast only based on climate variables is currently questioned, conservation policies supported by such information could have a biased vision and overestimate or underestimate the potential changes in species distribution derived from climate change. The incorporation of ecosystem functional attributes derived from remote sensing in the modeling of future forecast may contribute to the improvement of the detection of ecological responses under climate change scenarios.

Remote-sensing based approach to forecast habitat quality under climate change scenarios

PubMed Central

Requena-Mullor, Juan M.; López, Enrique; Castro, Antonio J.; Alcaraz-Segura, Domingo; Castro, Hermelindo; Reyes, Andrés; Cabello, Javier

2017-01-01

As climate change is expected to have a significant impact on species distributions, there is an urgent challenge to provide reliable information to guide conservation biodiversity policies. In addressing this challenge, we propose a remote sensing-based approach to forecast the future habitat quality for European badger, a species not abundant and at risk of local extinction in the arid environments of southeastern Spain, by incorporating environmental variables related with the ecosystem functioning and correlated with climate and land use. Using ensemble prediction methods, we designed global spatial distribution models for the distribution range of badger using presence-only data and climate variables. Then, we constructed regional models for an arid region in the southeast Spain using EVI (Enhanced Vegetation Index) derived variables and weighting the pseudo-absences with the global model projections applied to this region. Finally, we forecast the badger potential spatial distribution in the time period 2071–2099 based on IPCC scenarios incorporating the uncertainty derived from the predicted values of EVI-derived variables. By including remotely sensed descriptors of the temporal dynamics and spatial patterns of ecosystem functioning into spatial distribution models, results suggest that future forecast is less favorable for European badgers than not including them. In addition, change in spatial pattern of habitat suitability may become higher than when forecasts are based just on climate variables. Since the validity of future forecast only based on climate variables is currently questioned, conservation policies supported by such information could have a biased vision and overestimate or underestimate the potential changes in species distribution derived from climate change. The incorporation of ecosystem functional attributes derived from remote sensing in the modeling of future forecast may contribute to the improvement of the detection of ecological responses under climate change scenarios. PMID:28257501

Climate induced changes in biome distribution, NPP and hydrology for potential vegetation of the Upper Midwest U.S

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Motew, M.; Kucharik, C. J.

2011-12-01

While much attention is focused on future impacts of climate change on ecosystems, much can be learned about the previous interactions of ecosystems with recent climate change. In this study, we investigated the impacts of climate change on potential vegetation distributions (i.e. grasses, trees, and shrubs) and carbon and water cycling across the Upper Midwest USA from 1948-2007 using the Agro-IBIS dynamic vegetation model. We drove the model using a historical, gridded daily climate data set (temperature, precipitation, humidity, solar radiation, and wind speed) at a spatial resolution of 5 min x 5 min. While trends in climate variables exhibited heterogeneous spatial patterns over the study period, the overall impact of climate change on vegetation productivity was positive. We observed total increases in net primary productivity (NPP) ranging from 20-150 g C m-2, based on linear regression analysis. We determined that increased summer relative humidity, increased annual precipitation and decreased mean maximum summer temperatures were key variables contributing to these positive trends, likely through a reduction in soil moisture stress (e.g., increased available water) and heat stress. Model simulations also illustrated an increase in annual drainage throughout the region of 20-140 mm yr-1, driven by substantial increases in annual precipitation. Evapotranspiration had a highly variable spatial trend over the 60-year period, with total change over the study period ranging between -100 and +100 mm yr-1. We also analyzed potential changes in plant functional type (PFT) distributions at the biome level, but hypothesize that the model may be unable to adequately capture competitive interactions among PFTs as well as the dynamics between upper and lower canopies consisting of trees, grasses and shrubs. An analysis of the bioclimatic envelopes for PFTs common to the region revealed no significant change to the boreal conifer tree climatic domain over the study period, yet did reveal a slightly expanded domain for temperate deciduous broadleaf trees. The location of the Tension Zone, a broad ecotone dividing mixed forests in the north and southern hardwood forests and prairies in the south, was not observed to shift using analyses of both meteorological variables and through the results of simulated vegetation distributions. In general, our results supported the idea that climate change is spatially variable in nature, having significant effects on ecosystem structure and function. Our analysis also revealed interesting relationships among the key climatic quantities driving plant productivity and hydrology in the region. Most notably, while the model suggested that potential biome and PFT distributions have not likely shifted significantly in the past 60 years, climate change has contributed to substantial changes in coupled carbon, water, and energy exchange in natural ecosystems of the Upper Midwest US. We conclude that incorporating recent, high-resolution climate records into ecological studies offers valuable insight into the heterogeneous nature of climate change and its impacts on ecosystems at the local level.

Differing Roles of Functional Movement Variability as Experience Increases in Gymnastics

PubMed Central

Busquets, Albert; Marina, Michel; Davids, Keith; Angulo-Barroso, Rosa

2016-01-01

Current theories, like Ecological Dynamics, propose that inter-trial movement variability is functional when acquiring or refining movement coordination. Here, we examined how age-based experience levels of gymnasts constrained differences in emergent movement pattern variability during task performance. Specifically, we investigated different roles of movement pattern variability when gymnasts in different age groups performed longswings on a high bar, capturing the range of experience from beginner to advanced status. We also investigated the functionality of the relationships between levels of inter-trial variability and longswing amplitude during performance. One-hundred and thirteen male gymnasts in five age groups were observed performing longswings (with three different experience levels: beginners, intermediates and advanced performers). Performance was evaluated by analysis of key events in coordination of longswing focused on the arm-trunk and trunk-thigh segmental relations. Results revealed that 10 of 18 inter-trial variability measures changed significantly as a function of increasing task experience. Four of ten variability measures conformed to a U-shaped function with age implying exploratory strategies amongst beginners and functional adaptive variability amongst advanced performers. Inter-trial variability of arm-trunk coordination variables (6 of 10) conformed to a \\-shaped curve, as values were reduced to complete the longswings. Changes in coordination variability from beginner to intermediate status were largely restrictive, with only one variability measure related to exploration. Data revealed how inter-trial movement variability in gymnastics, relative to performance outcomes, needs careful interpretation, implying different roles as task experience changes. Key points Inter-trial variability while performing longswings on a high bar was assessed in a large sample (113 participants) divided into five age groups (form beginners to advanced gymnasts). Longswing assessment allowed us to evaluate inter-trial variability in representative performance context. Coordination variability presented two different configurations across experience levels depending on the variable of interest: either a U-shaped or a L- or \\-shaped graph. Increased inter-trial variability of the functional phase events offered flexibility to adapt the longswing performance in the advanced gymnasts, while decreasing variability in arm-trunk coordination modes was critical to improve longswing and to achieve the most advanced level. In addition, the relationship between variability measures and the global performance outcome (i.e. the swing amplitude) revealed different functional roles of movement variability (exploratory or restrictive) as a function of changes in experience levels. PMID:27274664

Temperature and aridity regulate spatial variability of soil multifunctionality in drylands across the globe.

PubMed

Durán, Jorge; Delgado-Baquerizo, Manuel; Dougill, Andrew J; Guuroh, Reginald T; Linstädter, Anja; Thomas, Andrew D; Maestre, Fernando T

2018-05-01

The relationship between the spatial variability of soil multifunctionality (i.e., the capacity of soils to conduct multiple functions; SVM) and major climatic drivers, such as temperature and aridity, has never been assessed globally in terrestrial ecosystems. We surveyed 236 dryland ecosystems from six continents to evaluate the relative importance of aridity and mean annual temperature, and of other abiotic (e.g., texture) and biotic (e.g., plant cover) variables as drivers of SVM, calculated as the averaged coefficient of variation for multiple soil variables linked to nutrient stocks and cycling. We found that increases in temperature and aridity were globally correlated to increases in SVM. Some of these climatic effects on SVM were direct, but others were indirectly driven through reductions in the number of vegetation patches and increases in soil sand content. The predictive capacity of our structural equation modelling was clearly higher for the spatial variability of N- than for C- and P-related soil variables. In the case of N cycling, the effects of temperature and aridity were both direct and indirect via changes in soil properties. For C and P, the effect of climate was mainly indirect via changes in plant attributes. These results suggest that future changes in climate may decouple the spatial availability of these elements for plants and microbes in dryland soils. Our findings significantly advance our understanding of the patterns and mechanisms driving SVM in drylands across the globe, which is critical for predicting changes in ecosystem functioning in response to climate change. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

Pronounced centennial-scale Atlantic Ocean climate variability correlated with Western Hemisphere hydroclimate.

PubMed

Thirumalai, Kaustubh; Quinn, Terrence M; Okumura, Yuko; Richey, Julie N; Partin, Judson W; Poore, Richard Z; Moreno-Chamarro, Eduardo

2018-01-26

Surface-ocean circulation in the northern Atlantic Ocean influences Northern Hemisphere climate. Century-scale circulation variability in the Atlantic Ocean, however, is poorly constrained due to insufficiently-resolved paleoceanographic records. Here we present a replicated reconstruction of sea-surface temperature and salinity from a site sensitive to North Atlantic circulation in the Gulf of Mexico which reveals pronounced centennial-scale variability over the late Holocene. We find significant correlations on these timescales between salinity changes in the Atlantic, a diagnostic parameter of circulation, and widespread precipitation anomalies using three approaches: multiproxy synthesis, observational datasets, and a transient simulation. Our results demonstrate links between centennial changes in northern Atlantic surface-circulation and hydroclimate changes in the adjacent continents over the late Holocene. Notably, our findings reveal that weakened surface-circulation in the Atlantic Ocean was concomitant with well-documented rainfall anomalies in the Western Hemisphere during the Little Ice Age.

Pronounced centennial-scale Atlantic Ocean climate variability correlated with Western Hemisphere hydroclimate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thirumalai, Kaustubh; Quinn, Terrence M.; Okumura, Yuko; Richey, Julie; Partin, Judson W.; Poore, Richard Z.; Moreno-Chamarro, Eduardo

2018-01-01

Surface-ocean circulation in the northern Atlantic Ocean influences Northern Hemisphere climate. Century-scale circulation variability in the Atlantic Ocean, however, is poorly constrained due to insufficiently-resolved paleoceanographic records. Here we present a replicated reconstruction of sea-surface temperature and salinity from a site sensitive to North Atlantic circulation in the Gulf of Mexico which reveals pronounced centennial-scale variability over the late Holocene. We find significant correlations on these timescales between salinity changes in the Atlantic, a diagnostic parameter of circulation, and widespread precipitation anomalies using three approaches: multiproxy synthesis, observational datasets, and a transient simulation. Our results demonstrate links between centennial changes in northern Atlantic surface-circulation and hydroclimate changes in the adjacent continents over the late Holocene. Notably, our findings reveal that weakened surface-circulation in the Atlantic Ocean was concomitant with well-documented rainfall anomalies in the Western Hemisphere during the Little Ice Age.

Vegetation Interaction Enhances Interdecadal Climate Variability in the Sahel

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zeng, Ning; Neelin, J. David; Lau, William K.-M.

1999-01-01

The role of naturally varying vegetation in influencing the climate variability in the Sahel is explored in a coupled atmosphere-land-vegetation model. The Sahel rainfall variability is influenced by sea surface temperature (SST) variations in the oceans. Land-surface feedback is found to increase this variability both on interannual and interdecadal time scales. Interactive vegetation enhances the interdecadal variation significantly, but can reduce year to year variability due to a phase lag introduced by the relatively slow vegetation adjustment time. Variations in vegetation accompany the changes in rainfall, in particular, the multi-decadal drying trend from the 1950s to the 80s.

Changes in heart rate variability during the induction and decay of heat acclimation.

PubMed

Flouris, Andreas D; Poirier, Martin P; Bravi, Andrea; Wright-Beatty, Heather E; Herry, Christophe; Seely, Andrew J; Kenny, Glen P

2014-10-01

We evaluated the changes in core temperature, heart rate, and heart rate variability (HRV) during the induction and decay of heat acclimation. Ten males (23 ± 3 years; 79.5 ± 3.5 kg; 15.2 ± 4.5 percent body fat; 51.13 ± 4.61 mLO(2)∙kg(-1)∙min(-1) peak oxygen uptake) underwent a 14-day heat acclimation protocol comprising of 90-min cycling at ~50 % peak oxygen uptake at 40 °C and ~20 % relative humidity. Core temperature, heart rate, and 102 HRV measures were recorded during a heat tolerance test conducted at baseline (day 0) and at the end of the induction (day 14) and decay (day 28) phases. Heat acclimation resulted in significantly reduced core temperature [rectal (χ (2) = 1298.14, p < 0.001); esophageal (χ (2) = 1069.88, p < 0.001)] and heart rate (χ (2) = 1230.17, p < 0.001). Following the decay phase, 26, 40, and 60 % of the heat acclimation-induced reductions in rectal temperature, esophageal temperature, and heart rate, respectively, were lost. Heat acclimation was accompanied by profound and broad changes in HRV: at the end of the induction phase, 75 of the 102 variability measures computed were significantly different (p < 0.001), compared to only 47 of the 102 at the end of the decay phase. Heat acclimation is accompanied by reduced core temperature, significant bradycardia, and marked alterations in HRV, which we interpret as being related to vagal dominance. The observed changes in core temperature persist for at least 2 weeks of non-exposure to heat, while the changes in heart rate and HRV decay faster and are only partly evident after 2 weeks of non-exposure to heat.

Birth dimensions in Melanesian and Indian Fijians and their relationships with maternal and socio-economic factors.

PubMed

Clegg, E J; Clegg, S D

1989-01-01

Fifty-nine Melanesian (MF) and 39 Indian (IF) Fijian full-term newborns were studied within 5 days of birth. Dimensions recorded included birthweight, length, crown-rump length, head circumference, upper limb length, bycondylar humeral and femoral diameters and four skinfolds (triceps, subscapular, suprailiac and thigh). Data from previous pregnancies of the presenting newborns' mothers were added to presenting birthweights, giving a total of 160 MF and 84 IF birthweights. In all birthweight and linear dimensions MFs were the bigger. Sex differences were significant in respect only of head circumference and the two bicondylar diameters. Multiple regression analysis showed dimensions in MF newborns to have few significant relationships with the maternal and socio-economic variables of age, parity, stature and years of education, but IFs had many more significant relationships. When covariance correction was made for the significant maternal and socio-economic variables (maternal age and parity) little effect on racial differences was seen. All linear dimensions except length could be subsumed into birthweight. MFs had greater triceps and subscapular skinfold thicknesses than IFs, a difference which was not much changed by covariance correction for significant maternal and socio-economic variables (maternal stature and years of education). Measurements of shape, expressed as ratios of linear dimensions, showed few racial differences but males had relatively broader limbs. For upper limb shape only, this difference was maintained after covariance correction for significant maternal and socio-economic variables (parity, stature and education). The greater size of MF infants at birth is associated with lower peri- and neonatal death rates. However this advantage is reversed during the remainder of the first year of life. It is suggested that better standards of infant care among IFs are responsible for this change.

Comparison of valsartan and amlodipine on ambulatory blood pressure variability in hypertensive patients.

PubMed

Eguchi, Kazuo; Imaizumi, Yuki; Kaihara, Toshiki; Hoshide, Satoshi; Kario, Kazuomi

We tested the hypothesis that calcium channel blockers (CCBs: amlodipine group, n = 38)) are superior to angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs: valsartan group, n = 38) against ambulatory blood pressure variability (BPV) in untreated Japanese hypertensive patients. Both drugs significantly reduced ambulatory systolic and diastolic BP values. With regard to BPV, standard deviation (SD) in SBP did not change with the administration of either drug, but the ARB significantly increased SD in awake DBP (12 ± 4-14 ± 4 mmHg). The ARB also significantly increased the coefficients of variation (CVs)in awake and 24-h SBP/DBP (all P < 0.05), but amlodipine did not change the CV. CCB significantly reduced the maximum values of awake SBP (193 ± 24-182 ± 27 mmHg, P = 0.02), sleep SBP (156 ± 18-139 ± 14 mmHg, P < 0 .001), and awake and sleep DBP (P < 0.01 in both cases), but the ARB did not change the maximum BP values. In conclusion, a once-daily morning dose of CCB amlodipine was more effective at controlling ambulatory BPV than ARB valsartan, especially in reducing maximum BP levels.

[Short-term and long-term fetal heart rate variability after amnioinfusion treatment of oligohydramnios complicated pregnancy].

PubMed

Machalski, T; Sikora, J; Bakon, I; Magnucki, J; Grzesiak-Kubica, E; Szkodny, E

2001-12-01

Results of computerised analysis of cardiotocograms obtained in the group of 21 pregnancies complicated by idiopathic oligohydramnios are presented in the study. Amnioinfusion procedures were administered serially in local anesthesia with ultrasound and colour Doppler control on the base of oligohydramnios criteria by Phelan. The analysis was based on KOMPOR software created by ITAM Zabrze based on PC computer connected to Hewlett-Packard Series 50A cardiotocograph. Significant short-term variability increase just after amnioinfusion procedure from 5.55 ms to 8.24 ms and after 24 hours up to 7.25 ms was found, while significant long-term variability values changes were not observed.

An 8-Week Exercise Intervention Based on Zumba Improves Aerobic Fitness and Psychological Well-Being in Healthy Women.

PubMed

Delextrat, Anne A; Warner, Sarah; Graham, Sarah; Neupert, Emma

2016-02-01

Although Zumba is practiced by millions of people worldwide, there is a paucity of research about its potential benefits. The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of Zumba on physiological and psychological outcomes in healthy women. Cardiovascular fitness, body composition, physical self-perception and psychological well-being were assessed before and immediately after 8 weeks of Zumba performed 3 times weekly (Zumba group, n = 22, age: 26.6 ± 5.4 years old; height: 165.8 ± 7.1 cm) or no intervention (control group, n = 22, age: 27.9 ± 6.0 years old; height: 164.7 ± 6.2 cm). All variables were analyzed by a 2-way (Group × Time) analysis of variance with repeated measures, and a Bonferroni post hoc test. Pearson correlation coefficient assessed the relationship between changes in anthropometric, physiological and psychological variables. Zumba provided significant positive changes in maximal aerobic fitness (+3.6%), self-perception of physical strength (+16.3%) and muscular development (+18.6%), greater autonomy (+8.0%), and purpose in life (+4.4%). No significant changes were observed in the control group. In addition, some psychological changes were significantly correlated to body fat at baseline, and changes in fitness. These results highlight that Zumba is beneficial to improve fitness and well-being in healthy women, but does not change body composition.

Analysis of vegetation dynamics and climatic variability impacts on greenness across Canada using remotely sensed data from 2000 to 2009

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, Xiuqin; Zhu, Qiuan; Chen, Huai; Ma, Zhihai; Wang, Weifeng; Song, Xinzhang; Zhao, Pengxiang; Peng, Changhui

2014-01-01

Using time series of moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data from 2000 to 2009, we assessed decadal vegetation dynamics across Canada and examined the relationship between NDVI and climatic variables (precipitation and temperature). The Palmer drought severity index and vapor pressure difference (VPD) were used to relate the vegetation changes to the climate, especially in cases of drought. Results indicated that MODIS NDVI measurements provided a dynamic picture of interannual variation in Canadian vegetation patterns. Greenness declined in 2000, 2002, and 2009 and increased in 2005, 2006, and 2008. Vegetation dynamics varied across regions during the period. Most forest land shows little change, while vegetation in the ecozone of Pacific Maritime, Prairies, and Taiga Shield shows more dynamics than in the others. Significant correlations were found between NDVI and the climatic variables. The variation of NDVI resulting from climatic variability was more highly correlated to temperature than to precipitation in most ecozones. Vegetation grows better with higher precipitation and temperature in almost all ecozones. However, vegetation grows worse under higher temperature in the Prairies ecozone. The annual changes in NDVI corresponded well with the change in VPD in most ecozones.

Hydroclimate temporal variability in a coastal Mediterranean watershed: the Tafna basin, North-West Algeria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boulariah, Ouafik; Longobardi, Antonia; Meddi, Mohamed

2017-04-01

One of the major challenges scientists, practitioners and stakeholders are nowadays involved in, is to provide the worldwide population with reliable water supplies, protecting, at the same time, the freshwater ecosystems quality and quantity. Climate and land use changes undermine the balance between water demand and water availability, causing alteration of rivers flow regime. Knowledge of hydro-climate variables temporal and spatial variability is clearly helpful to plan drought and flood hazard mitigation strategies but also to adapt them to future environmental scenarios. The present study relates to the coastal semi-arid Tafna catchment, located in the North-West of Algeria, within the Mediterranean basin. The aim is the investigation of streamflow and rainfall indices temporal variability in six sub-basins of the large catchment Tafna, attempting to relate streamflow and rainfall changes. Rainfall and streamflow time series have been preliminary tested for data quality and homogeneity, through the coupled application of two-tailed t test, Pettitt test and Cumsum tests (significance level of 0.1, 0.05 and 0.01). Subsequently maximum annual daily rainfall and streamflow and average daily annual rainfall and streamflow time series have been derived and tested for temporal variability, through the application of the Mann Kendall and Sen's test. Overall maximum annual daily streamflow time series exhibit a negative trend which is however significant for only 30% of the station. Maximum annual daily rainfall also e exhibit a negative trend which is intend significant for the 80% of the stations. In the case of average daily annual streamflow and rainfall, the tendency for decrease in time is unclear and, in both cases, appear significant for 60% of stations.

The Borderlands and climate change: Chapter 10 in United States-Mexican Borderlands: Facing tomorrow's challenges through USGS science

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fitzpatrick, Joan; Gray, Floyd; Dubiel, Russell; Langman, Jeff; Moring, J. Bruce; Norman, Laura M.; Page, William R.; Parcher, Jean W.

2013-01-01

The prediction of global climate change in response to both natural forces and human activity is one of the defining issues of our times. The unprecedented observational capacity of modern earth-orbiting satellites coupled with the development of robust computational representations (models) of the Earth’s weather and climate systems afford us the opportunity to observe and investigate how these systems work now, how they have worked in the past, and how they will work in the future when forced in specific ways. In the most recent report on global climate change by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC; Solomon and others, 2007), analyses using multiple climate models support recent observations that the Earth’s climate is changing in response to a combination of natural and human-induced causes. These changes will be significant in the United States–Mexican border region, where the process of climate change affects all of the Borderlands challenge themes discussed in the preceding chapters. The dual possibilities of both significantly-changed climate and increasing variability in climate make it challenging to take full measure of the potential effects because the Borderlands already experience a high degree of interannual variability and climatological extremes.

Examining Impulse-Variability Theory and the Speed-Accuracy Trade-Off in Children's Overarm Throwing Performance.

PubMed

Molina, Sergio L; Stodden, David F

2018-04-01

This study examined variability in throwing speed and spatial error to test the prediction of an inverted-U function (i.e., impulse-variability [IV] theory) and the speed-accuracy trade-off. Forty-five 9- to 11-year-old children were instructed to throw at a specified percentage of maximum speed (45%, 65%, 85%, and 100%) and hit the wall target. Results indicated no statistically significant differences in variable error across the target conditions (p = .72), failing to support the inverted-U hypothesis. Spatial accuracy results indicated no statistically significant differences with mean radial error (p = .18), centroid radial error (p = .13), and bivariate variable error (p = .08) also failing to support the speed-accuracy trade-off in overarm throwing. As neither throwing performance variability nor accuracy changed across percentages of maximum speed in this sample of children as well as in a previous adult sample, current policy and practices of practitioners may need to be reevaluated.

Correlation of arterial fetal base deficit and lactate changes with severity of variable heart rate decelerations in the near-term ovine fetus.

PubMed

Ross, Michael G; Jessie, Marquis; Amaya, Kevin; Matushewski, Brad; Durosier, L Daniel; Frasch, Martin G; Richardson, Bryan S

2013-04-01

Recent guidelines classify variable decelerations without detail as to degree of depth. We hypothesized that variable deceleration severity is highly correlated with fetal base deficit accumulation. Seven near-term fetal sheep underwent a series of graded umbilical cord occlusions resulting in mild (30 bpm decrease), moderate (60 bpm decrease), or severe (decrease of 90 bpm to baseline <70 bpm) variable decelerations at 2.5 minute intervals. Mild, moderate, and severe variable decelerations increased fetal base deficit (0.21 ± 0.03, 0.27 ± 0.03, and 0.54 ± 0.09 mEq/L per minute) in direct proportion to severity. During recovery, fetal base deficit cleared at 0.12 mEq/L per minute. In this model, ovine fetuses can tolerate repetitive mild and moderate variable decelerations with minimal change in base deficit and lactate. In contrast, repetitive severe variable decelerations may result in significant base deficit increases, dependent on frequency. Modified guideline differentiation of mild/moderate vs severe variable decelerations may aid in the interpretation of fetal heart rate tracings and optimization of clinical management paradigms. Copyright © 2013 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimating and Modelling Bias of the Hierarchical Partitioning Public-Domain Software: Implications in Environmental Management and Conservation

PubMed Central

Olea, Pedro P.; Mateo-Tomás, Patricia; de Frutos, Ángel

2010-01-01

Background Hierarchical partitioning (HP) is an analytical method of multiple regression that identifies the most likely causal factors while alleviating multicollinearity problems. Its use is increasing in ecology and conservation by its usefulness for complementing multiple regression analysis. A public-domain software “hier.part package” has been developed for running HP in R software. Its authors highlight a “minor rounding error” for hierarchies constructed from >9 variables, however potential bias by using this module has not yet been examined. Knowing this bias is pivotal because, for example, the ranking obtained in HP is being used as a criterion for establishing priorities of conservation. Methodology/Principal Findings Using numerical simulations and two real examples, we assessed the robustness of this HP module in relation to the order the variables have in the analysis. Results indicated a considerable effect of the variable order on the amount of independent variance explained by predictors for models with >9 explanatory variables. For these models the nominal ranking of importance of the predictors changed with variable order, i.e. predictors declared important by its contribution in explaining the response variable frequently changed to be either most or less important with other variable orders. The probability of changing position of a variable was best explained by the difference in independent explanatory power between that variable and the previous one in the nominal ranking of importance. The lesser is this difference, the more likely is the change of position. Conclusions/Significance HP should be applied with caution when more than 9 explanatory variables are used to know ranking of covariate importance. The explained variance is not a useful parameter to use in models with more than 9 independent variables. The inconsistency in the results obtained by HP should be considered in future studies as well as in those already published. Some recommendations to improve the analysis with this HP module are given. PMID:20657734

Climate Change Impact Assessment in Pacific North West Using Copula based Coupling of Temperature and Precipitation variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qin, Y.; Rana, A.; Moradkhani, H.

2014-12-01

The multi downscaled-scenario products allow us to better assess the uncertainty of the changes/variations of precipitation and temperature in the current and future periods. Joint Probability distribution functions (PDFs), of both the climatic variables, might help better understand the interdependence of the two, and thus in-turn help in accessing the future with confidence. Using the joint distribution of temperature and precipitation is also of significant importance in hydrological applications and climate change studies. In the present study, we have used multi-modelled statistically downscaled-scenario ensemble of precipitation and temperature variables using 2 different statistically downscaled climate dataset. The datasets used are, 10 Global Climate Models (GCMs) downscaled products from CMIP5 daily dataset, namely, those from the Bias Correction and Spatial Downscaling (BCSD) technique generated at Portland State University and from the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) technique, generated at University of Idaho, leading to 2 ensemble time series from 20 GCM products. Thereafter the ensemble PDFs of both precipitation and temperature is evaluated for summer, winter, and yearly periods for all the 10 sub-basins across Columbia River Basin (CRB). Eventually, Copula is applied to establish the joint distribution of two variables enabling users to model the joint behavior of the variables with any level of correlation and dependency. Moreover, the probabilistic distribution helps remove the limitations on marginal distributions of variables in question. The joint distribution is then used to estimate the change trends of the joint precipitation and temperature in the current and future, along with estimation of the probabilities of the given change. Results have indicated towards varied change trends of the joint distribution of, summer, winter, and yearly time scale, respectively in all 10 sub-basins. Probabilities of changes, as estimated by the joint precipitation and temperature, will provide useful information/insights for hydrological and climate change predictions.

Seasonal and nonseasonal variability of satellite-derived chlorophyll and colored dissolved organic matter concentration in the California Current

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kahru, Mati; Mitchell, B. Greg

2001-02-01

Time series of surface chlorophyll a concentration (Chl) and colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) derived from the Ocean Color and Temperature Sensor and Sea-Viewing Wide Field-of-View Sensor were evaluated for the California Current area using regional algorithms. Satellite data composited for 8-day periods provide the ability to describe large-scale changes in surface parameters. These changes are difficult to detect based on in situ observations alone that suffer from undersampling the large temporal and spatial variability, especially in Chl. We detected no significant bias in satellite Chl estimates compared with ship-based measurements. The variability in CDOM concentration was significantly smaller than that in Chl, both spatially and temporally. While being subject to large interannual and short-term variations, offshore waters (100-1000 km from the shore) have an annual cycle of Chl and CDOM with a maximum in winter-spring (December-March) and a minimum in late summer. For inshore waters the maximum is more likely in spring (April-May). We detect significant increase in both Chl and CDOM off central and southern California during the La Niña year of 1999. The trend of increasing Chl and CDOM from October 1996 to June 2000 is statistically significant in many areas.

Perceived exercise self-efficacy as a predictor of exercise behavior in individuals aging with spinal cord injury.

PubMed

Kroll, Thilo; Kratz, Anna; Kehn, Matthew; Jensen, Mark P; Groah, Suzanne; Ljungberg, Inger H; Molton, Ivan R; Bombardier, Charles

2012-08-01

The purpose of this study was to test the hypothesized association between exercise self-efficacy and exercise behavior, controlling for demographic variables and clinical characteristics, in a sample of individuals with spinal cord injuries. A cross-sectional national survey of 612 community-dwelling adults with spinal cord injury in the United States ranging from 18 to 89 yrs of age was conducted. Sample consisted of 63.1% men with a mean (SD) duration of 15.8 (12.79) yrs postinjury; 86.3% reported using a wheelchair. Self-efficacy was the only independent variable that consistently predicted all four exercise outcomes. Self-efficacy beliefs were significantly related to frequency and intensity of resistance training (R(2) change = 0.08 and 0.03, respectively; P < 0.01 for all) and aerobic training (R(2) change = 0.07 and 0.05, respectively; P < 0.01 for all), thus explaining between 3% and 8% of the variance. Hierarchical linear regression analysis revealed that controlling for other demographic and physical capability variables, the age-related variables made statistically significant contributions and explained between 1% and 3% of the variance in aerobic exercise frequency and intensity (R(2) change = 0.01 and 0.03, respectively; P < 0.01 for all). Clinical functional characteristics but not demographic variables explained participation in resistance exercise. Self-efficacy beliefs play an important role as predictors of exercise. Variations in exercise intensity along the age continuum have implications for exercise prescription and composition. Future research should replicate findings with objective activity measures.

The role of ENSO in understanding changes in Colombia's annual malaria burden by region, 1960–2006

PubMed Central

Mantilla, Gilma; Oliveros, Hugo; Barnston, Anthony G

2009-01-01

Background Malaria remains a serious problem in Colombia. The number of malaria cases is governed by multiple climatic and non-climatic factors. Malaria control policies, and climate controls such as rainfall and temperature variations associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), have been associated with malaria case numbers. Using historical climate data and annual malaria case number data from 1960 to 2006, statistical models are developed to isolate the effects of climate in each of Colombia's five contrasting geographical regions. Methods Because year to year climate variability associated with ENSO causes interannual variability in malaria case numbers, while changes in population and institutional control policy result in more gradual trends, the chosen predictors in the models are annual indices of the ENSO state (sea surface temperature [SST] in the tropical Pacific Ocean) and time reference indices keyed to two major malaria trends during the study period. Two models were used: a Poisson and a Negative Binomial regression model. Two ENSO indices, two time reference indices, and one dummy variable are chosen as candidate predictors. The analysis was conducted using the five geographical regions to match the similar aggregation used by the National Institute of Health for its official reports. Results The Negative Binomial regression model is found better suited to the malaria cases in Colombia. Both the trend variables and the ENSO measures are significant predictors of malaria case numbers in Colombia as a whole, and in two of the five regions. A one degree Celsius change in SST (indicating a weak to moderate ENSO event) is seen to translate to an approximate 20% increase in malaria cases, holding other variables constant. Conclusion Regional differentiation in the role of ENSO in understanding changes in Colombia's annual malaria burden during 1960–2006 was found, constituting a new approach to use ENSO as a significant predictor of the malaria cases in Colombia. These results naturally point to additional needed work: (1) refining the regional and seasonal dependence of climate on the ENSO state, and of malaria on the climate variables; (2) incorporating ENSO-related climate variability into dynamic malaria models. PMID:19133152

Spectral Variability of the UXOR Star RR Tau Over 2.5 Magnitudes in V

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodgers, B.; Wooden, D. H.; Grinin, V. P.; Shakhovskoy, D.

2000-12-01

We present moderate resolution optical spectra of the highly variable Herbig Ae star RR Tau over 12 epochs spanning 2.5 magnitudes in V. The data cover most of the optical spectrum from the CaII K line in the blue to the CaII infrared triplet in the far red. Using contemporaneous photometric measurements from two sources, we have reliable estimates of the visual magnitude of the system at each spectral epoch. We find some spectral activity to be closely correlated with photometric variability, while other features are remarkably stable. Significant variability is common in the cores of Hα and Hβ , but is not well correlated with photometric variability. On the other hand, the wings (Δ v>400km/s) of the Balmer lines are quite stable, showing no change in spectral type when compared to Kurucz line profiles. This, along with the constant equivalent width seen in several weak metal lines, suggest that the physical conditions of the underlying continuum source are not changing significantly, despite a factor of ten change in brightness. In contrast, strong low-ionization permitted lines, such as FeII, CaII and NaI, are seen in deep absorption when the star is bright (V <= 12), but disappear during photometric minima to reveal weak emission lines. These absorption lines are not being filled in by the emission but rather are physically disappearing from the system. This could occur, for example, if an obscuring screen moved between the continuum source and the absorbing gas. The [OI]6300 line, a common wind diagnostic, is seen in emission at all epochs, with flux which is roughly constant except increasing slightly when the system is faint. We discuss these data in the context of different scenarios for the photometric variability and find them to be more consistent with the obscuration hypothesis, than changing accretion luminosity. This work is part of the dissertation research of B. Rodgers, which has been funded in large part by a NASA Graduate Student Research Program (GSRP) grant, for which D.H. Wooden is Rodgers' advisor. We gratefully acknowledge the use of the database of the Amateur Astronomers Variable Star Organization (AAVSO).

Modeling the influence of precipitation and nitrogen deposition on forest understory fuel connectivity in Sierra Nevada mixed-conifer forest

Treesearch

M. Hurteau; M. North; T. Foines

2009-01-01

Climate change models for California’s Sierra Nevada predict greater inter-annual variability in precipitation over the next 50 years. These increases in precipitation variability coupled with increases in nitrogen deposition fromfossil fuel consumption are likely to result in increased productivity levels and significant increases in...

Millennia-long tree-ring records from Tasmania and New Zealand: a basis for modelling climate variability and forcing, past, present and future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cook, Edward R.; Buckley, Brendan M.; Palmer, Jonathan G.; Fenwick, Pavla; Peterson, Michael J.; Boswijk, Gretel; Fowler, Anthony

2006-10-01

Progress in the development of millennia-long tree-ring chronologies from Australia and New Zealand is reviewed from the perspective of modelling long-term climate variability there. Three tree species have proved successful in this regard: Huon pine (Lagarostrobos franklinii) from Tasmania, silver pine (L. colensoi) from the South Island of New Zealand, and kauri (Agathis australis) from the North Island of New Zealand. Each of these species is very long-lived and produces abundant quantities of well-preserved wood for extending their tree-ring chronologies back several millennia into the past. The growth patterns on these chronologies strongly correlate with both local and regional warm-season temperature changes over significant areas of the Southern Hemisphere (especially Huon and silver pine) and to ENSO variability emanating from the equatorial Pacific region (especially kauri). In addition, there is evidence for significant, band-limited, multi-decadal and centennial timescale variability in the warm-season temperature reconstruction based on Huon pine tree rings that may be related to slowly varying changes in ocean circulation dynamics in the southern Indian Ocean. This suggests the possibility of long-term climate predictability there. Copyright

Effect of flow rate on environmental variables and phytoplankton dynamics: results from field enclosures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Haiping; Chen, Ruihong; Li, Feipeng; Chen, Ling

2015-03-01

To investigate the effects of flow rate on phytoplankton dynamics and related environment variables, a set of enclosure experiments with different flow rates were conducted in an artificial lake. We monitored nutrients, temperature, dissolved oxygen, pH, conductivity, turbidity, chlorophyll- a and phytoplankton levels. The lower biomass in all flowing enclosures showed that flow rate significantly inhibited the growth of phytoplankton. A critical flow rate occurred near 0.06 m/s, which was the lowest relative inhibitory rate. Changes in flow conditions affected algal competition for light, resulting in a dramatic shift in phytoplankton composition, from blue-green algae in still waters to green algae in flowing conditions. These findings indicate that critical flow rate can be useful in developing methods to reduce algal bloom occurrence. However, flow rate significantly enhanced the inter-relationships among environmental variables, in particular by inducing higher water turbidity and vegetative reproduction of periphyton ( Spirogyra). These changes were accompanied by a decrease in underwater light intensity, which consequently inhibited the photosynthetic intensity of phytoplankton. These results warn that a universal critical flow rate might not exist, because the effect of flow rate on phytoplankton is interlinked with many other environmental variables.

The Impact of Changing Snowmelt Timing on Non-Irrigated Crop Yield in Idaho

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murray, E. M.; Cobourn, K.; Flores, A. N.; Pierce, J. L.; Kunkel, M. L.

2013-12-01

The impacts of climate change on water resources have implications for both agricultural production and grower welfare. Many mountainous regions in the western U.S. rely on snowmelt as the dominant surface water source, and in Idaho, reconstructions of spring snowmelt timing have demonstrated a trend toward earlier, more variable snowmelt dates within the past 20 years. This earlier date and increased variability in snowmelt timing have serious implications for agriculture, but there is considerable uncertainty about how agricultural impacts vary by region, crop-type, and practices like irrigation vs. dryland farming. Establishing the relationship between snowmelt timing and agricultural yield is important for understanding how changes in large-scale climatic indices (like snowmelt date) may be associated with changes in agricultural yield. This is particularly important where local practitioner behavior is influenced by historically observed relationships between these climate indices and yield. In addition, a better understanding of the influence of changes in snowmelt on non-irrigated crop yield may be extrapolated to better understand how climate change may alter biomass production in non-managed ecosystems. To investigate the impact of snowmelt date on non-irrigated crop yield, we developed a multiple linear regression model to predict historical wheat and barley yield in several Idaho counties as a function of snowmelt date, climate variables (precipitation and growing degree-days), and spatial differences between counties. The relationship between snowmelt timing and non-irrigated crop yield at the county level is strong in many of the models, but differs in magnitude and direction for the two different crops. Results show interesting spatial patterns of variability in the correlation between snowmelt timing and crop yield. In four southern counties that border the Snake River Plain and one county bordering Oregon, non-irrigated wheat and/or barley yield are significantly lower in years with early snowmelt timing, on average (P < 0.10). In contrast, in northern Idaho, barley yield is significantly higher in years with early snowmelt timing. Overall, this statistical modeling exercise indicates that the trend toward earlier snowmelt date may positively impact non-irrigated crop yield in some regions of Idaho, while negatively impacting yield in other areas. Additional research is necessary to identify spatial controls on the variable relationship between snowmelt timing and yield. Regional variability in the response of crops to changes in snowmelt timing may indicate that external factors (e.g. higher amounts of summer rain in northern vs. southern Idaho) may play an important role in crop yield. This study indicates that targeted regional analysis is necessary to determine the influence of climate change on agriculture, as local variability can cause the same forcing to produce opposite results.

Clinical Efficacy and Its Prognostic Factor of Percutaneous Endoscopic Lumbar Annuloplasty and Nucleoplasty for the Treatment of Patients with Discogenic Low Back Pain.

PubMed

Lee, Jung Hwan; Lee, Sang-Ho

2017-09-01

The choice of appropriate treatment of discogenic low back pain (DLBP) frequently is difficult. This study sought to identify the clinical efficacy of percutaneous endoscopic lumbar annuloplasty and nucleoplasty (PELAN) to treat patients with DLBP and to investigate prognostic clinical or radiologic variables. Eighty-nine patients with a diagnosis of DLBP who underwent PELAN were included. Numeric Rating Scale (NRS) for back pain, Oswestry Disability Index % (ODI%), and modified Macnab criteria were measured at short-term (3-4 weeks) and long-term follow-up period (at least 12 months) to investigate clinical efficacy of PELAN. The subjects were defined as successful group in case of 50% or more reduction of NRS, 40% or more reduction of ODI%, and good or excellent response of Macnab criteria. Clinical and radiologic variables were compared between successful and unsuccessful outcomes group to determine prognostic variables. NRS and ODI% were significantly reduced at short- and long-term follow-up after PELAN. Sixty-two (69.7%) and 68 (76.4%) obtained successful NRS reduction and 59 (66.3%) and 68 (76.4%) accomplished successful ODI% reduction at short-term and long-term follow-up, respectively. Successful Mcnab response was found in 61% at short term and 65.2% at long term. Pain during waist flexion among clinical variables was significantly related to good clinical outcomes and Modic change among radiologic variables was significantly related to poor clinical outcomes. PELAN provided favorable outcomes in patients with DLBP who were refractory to conservative treatments. Flexion pain was good prognostic, and Modic change was a poor prognostic variable. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Sex differences in verbal and visual-spatial tasks under different hemispheric visual-field presentation conditions.

PubMed

Boyle, Gregory J; Neumann, David L; Furedy, John J; Westbury, H Rae

2010-04-01

This paper reports sex differences in cognitive task performance that emerged when 39 Australian university undergraduates (19 men, 20 women) were asked to solve verbal (lexical) and visual-spatial cognitive matching tasks which varied in difficulty and visual field of presentation. Sex significantly interacted with task type, task difficulty, laterality, and changes in performance across trials. The results revealed that the significant individual-differences' variable of sex does not always emerge as a significant main effect, but instead in terms of significant interactions with other variables manipulated experimentally. Our results show that sex differences must be taken into account when conducting experiments into human cognitive-task performance.

Autonomic neural control of dynamic cerebral autoregulation in humans

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhang, Rong; Zuckerman, Julie H.; Iwasaki, Kenichi; Wilson, Thad E.; Crandall, Craig G.; Levine, Benjamin D.

2002-01-01

BACKGROUND: The purpose of the present study was to determine the role of autonomic neural control of dynamic cerebral autoregulation in humans. METHODS AND RESULTS: We measured arterial pressure and cerebral blood flow (CBF) velocity in 12 healthy subjects (aged 29+/-6 years) before and after ganglion blockade with trimethaphan. CBF velocity was measured in the middle cerebral artery using transcranial Doppler. The magnitude of spontaneous changes in mean blood pressure and CBF velocity were quantified by spectral analysis. The transfer function gain, phase, and coherence between these variables were estimated to quantify dynamic cerebral autoregulation. After ganglion blockade, systolic and pulse pressure decreased significantly by 13% and 26%, respectively. CBF velocity decreased by 6% (P<0.05). In the very low frequency range (0.02 to 0.07 Hz), mean blood pressure variability decreased significantly (by 82%), while CBF velocity variability persisted. Thus, transfer function gain increased by 81%. In addition, the phase lead of CBF velocity to arterial pressure diminished. These changes in transfer function gain and phase persisted despite restoration of arterial pressure by infusion of phenylephrine and normalization of mean blood pressure variability by oscillatory lower body negative pressure. CONCLUSIONS: These data suggest that dynamic cerebral autoregulation is altered by ganglion blockade. We speculate that autonomic neural control of the cerebral circulation is tonically active and likely plays a significant role in the regulation of beat-to-beat CBF in humans.

Hydrological Impacts of Land Use Change and Climate Variability in the Headwater Region of the Heihe River Basin, Northwest China

PubMed Central

Zhang, Ling; Nan, Zhuotong; Xu, Yi; Li, Shuo

2016-01-01

Land use change and climate variability are two key factors impacting watershed hydrology, which is strongly related to the availability of water resources and the sustainability of local ecosystems. This study assessed separate and combined hydrological impacts of land use change and climate variability in the headwater region of a typical arid inland river basin, known as the Heihe River Basin, northwest China, in the recent past (1995–2014) and near future (2015–2024), by combining two land use models (i.e., Markov chain model and Dyna-CLUE) with a hydrological model (i.e., SWAT). The potential impacts in the near future were explored using projected land use patterns and hypothetical climate scenarios established on the basis of analyzing long-term climatic observations. Land use changes in the recent past are dominated by the expansion of grassland and a decrease in farmland; meanwhile the climate develops with a wetting and warming trend. Land use changes in this period induce slight reductions in surface runoff, groundwater discharge and streamflow whereas climate changes produce pronounced increases in them. The joint hydrological impacts are similar to those solely induced by climate changes. Spatially, both the effects of land use change and climate variability vary with the sub-basin. The influences of land use changes are more identifiable in some sub-basins, compared with the basin-wide impacts. In the near future, climate changes tend to affect the hydrological regimes much more prominently than land use changes, leading to significant increases in all hydrological components. Nevertheless, the role of land use change should not be overlooked, especially if the climate becomes drier in the future, as in this case it may magnify the hydrological responses. PMID:27348224

Hydrological Impacts of Land Use Change and Climate Variability in the Headwater Region of the Heihe River Basin, Northwest China.

PubMed

Zhang, Ling; Nan, Zhuotong; Xu, Yi; Li, Shuo

2016-01-01

Land use change and climate variability are two key factors impacting watershed hydrology, which is strongly related to the availability of water resources and the sustainability of local ecosystems. This study assessed separate and combined hydrological impacts of land use change and climate variability in the headwater region of a typical arid inland river basin, known as the Heihe River Basin, northwest China, in the recent past (1995-2014) and near future (2015-2024), by combining two land use models (i.e., Markov chain model and Dyna-CLUE) with a hydrological model (i.e., SWAT). The potential impacts in the near future were explored using projected land use patterns and hypothetical climate scenarios established on the basis of analyzing long-term climatic observations. Land use changes in the recent past are dominated by the expansion of grassland and a decrease in farmland; meanwhile the climate develops with a wetting and warming trend. Land use changes in this period induce slight reductions in surface runoff, groundwater discharge and streamflow whereas climate changes produce pronounced increases in them. The joint hydrological impacts are similar to those solely induced by climate changes. Spatially, both the effects of land use change and climate variability vary with the sub-basin. The influences of land use changes are more identifiable in some sub-basins, compared with the basin-wide impacts. In the near future, climate changes tend to affect the hydrological regimes much more prominently than land use changes, leading to significant increases in all hydrological components. Nevertheless, the role of land use change should not be overlooked, especially if the climate becomes drier in the future, as in this case it may magnify the hydrological responses.

Benefits of oxytocin administration in obstructive sleep apnea.

PubMed

Jain, Vivek; Marbach, Joseph; Kimbro, Shawn; Andrade, David C; Jain, Arad; Capozzi, Eleanor; Mele, Kyle; Del Rio, Rodrigo; Kay, Matthew W; Mendelowitz, David

2017-11-01

Activation of oxytocin receptors has shown benefits in animal models of obstructive sleep apnea (OSA). We tested if nocturnal oxytocin administration could have beneficial effects in OSA patients. Eight patients diagnosed with OSA were administered intranasal oxytocin (40 IU). Changes in cardiorespiratory events during sleep, including apnea and hypopnea durations and frequency, risk of event-associated arousals, and heart rate variability, were assessed. Oxytocin significantly increased indexes of parasympathetic activity, including heart rate variability, total sleep time, and the postpolysommogram sleep assessment score, an index of self-reported sleep satisfaction. Although the apnea-hypopnea index was not significantly changed with oxytocin administration, when apnea and hypopnea events were compared independently, the frequency of hypopneas, but not apneas, was significantly ( P ≤ 0.005) decreased with oxytocin treatment. Both apneas and hypopneas were significantly shortened in duration with oxytocin treatment. Oxytocin treatment significantly decreased the percent of apnea and hypopnea events that were accompanied with an arousal. Oxytocin administration has the potential to restore cardiorespiratory homeostasis and reduce some clinically important (objective and patient-reported) adverse events that occur with OSA. Additional studies are needed to further understand the mechanisms by which oxytocin promotes these changes in cardiorespiratory and autonomic function in OSA patients. Copyright © 2017 the American Physiological Society.

Using Multigroup-Multiphase Latent State-Trait Models to Study Treatment-Induced Changes in Intra-Individual State Variability: An Application to Smokers' Affect.

PubMed

Geiser, Christian; Griffin, Daniel; Shiffman, Saul

2016-01-01

Sometimes, researchers are interested in whether an intervention, experimental manipulation, or other treatment causes changes in intra-individual state variability. The authors show how multigroup-multiphase latent state-trait (MG-MP-LST) models can be used to examine treatment effects with regard to both mean differences and differences in state variability. The approach is illustrated based on a randomized controlled trial in which N = 338 smokers were randomly assigned to nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) vs. placebo prior to quitting smoking. We found that post quitting, smokers in both the NRT and placebo group had significantly reduced intra-individual affect state variability with respect to the affect items calm and content relative to the pre-quitting phase. This reduction in state variability did not differ between the NRT and placebo groups, indicating that quitting smoking may lead to a stabilization of individuals' affect states regardless of whether or not individuals receive NRT.

Using Multigroup-Multiphase Latent State-Trait Models to Study Treatment-Induced Changes in Intra-Individual State Variability: An Application to Smokers' Affect

PubMed Central

Geiser, Christian; Griffin, Daniel; Shiffman, Saul

2016-01-01

Sometimes, researchers are interested in whether an intervention, experimental manipulation, or other treatment causes changes in intra-individual state variability. The authors show how multigroup-multiphase latent state-trait (MG-MP-LST) models can be used to examine treatment effects with regard to both mean differences and differences in state variability. The approach is illustrated based on a randomized controlled trial in which N = 338 smokers were randomly assigned to nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) vs. placebo prior to quitting smoking. We found that post quitting, smokers in both the NRT and placebo group had significantly reduced intra-individual affect state variability with respect to the affect items calm and content relative to the pre-quitting phase. This reduction in state variability did not differ between the NRT and placebo groups, indicating that quitting smoking may lead to a stabilization of individuals' affect states regardless of whether or not individuals receive NRT. PMID:27499744

Enhanced precipitation variability decreases grass- and increases shrub-productivity

PubMed Central

Gherardi, Laureano A.; Sala, Osvaldo E.

2015-01-01

Although projections of precipitation change indicate increases in variability, most studies of impacts of climate change on ecosystems focused on effects of changes in amount of precipitation, overlooking precipitation variability effects, especially at the interannual scale. Here, we present results from a 6-y field experiment, where we applied sequences of wet and dry years, increasing interannual precipitation coefficient of variation while maintaining a precipitation amount constant. Increased precipitation variability significantly reduced ecosystem primary production. Dominant plant-functional types showed opposite responses: perennial-grass productivity decreased by 81%, whereas shrub productivity increased by 67%. This pattern was explained by different nonlinear responses to precipitation. Grass productivity presented a saturating response to precipitation where dry years had a larger negative effect than the positive effects of wet years. In contrast, shrubs showed an increasing response to precipitation that resulted in an increase in average productivity with increasing precipitation variability. In addition, the effects of precipitation variation increased through time. We argue that the differential responses of grasses and shrubs to precipitation variability and the amplification of this phenomenon through time result from contrasting root distributions of grasses and shrubs and competitive interactions among plant types, confirmed by structural equation analysis. Under drought conditions, grasses reduce their abundance and their ability to absorb water that then is transferred to deep soil layers that are exclusively explored by shrubs. Our work addresses an understudied dimension of climate change that might lead to widespread shrub encroachment reducing the provisioning of ecosystem services to society. PMID:26417095

Variability in Phytoplankton Morphology and Macromolecular Composition With Nutrient Starvation and The Implications for Oceanic Elemental Stoichiometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liefer, J. D.; Benner, I.; Brown, C. M.; Garg, A.; Fiset, C.; Irwin, A. J.; Follows, M. J.; Finkel, Z.

2016-02-01

Trait based modeling efforts are an important tool for predicting the distribution of phytoplankton communities in the ocean and their interaction with elemental stoichiometry. The elemental stoichiometry of phytoplankton is based on their macromolecular composition. Many phytoplankton species accumulate C-rich storage products (carbohydrates and lipids) and reduce N and P-rich functional components (proteins and nucleic acids) upon N- or P-starvation. Reconciling global patterns in C:N:P stoichiometry and phytoplankton community structure and succession requires a better understanding of how phytoplankton macromolecular composition varies across taxa, size class, and growth conditions. We examined changes in cell size and composition from exponential growth to nitrogen starvation in four common phytoplankton species representing two size classes each of chlorophytes and diatoms. Variation in cell size, cell mass, and length of stationary growth phase appeared to be size dependent. The larger species of chlorophyte and diatom had a significant increase in cell mass and cell size with N-starvation and showed no significant change in cell density after starvation for 5-7 days. The smaller size species of both phyla showed no significant change in cell size or mass upon N-starvation and a consistent decline in cell density 1-2 days after peak densities were reached. All species had a similar significant increase in C quota, but changes in N quota and C:N were more variable and species-specific. We also present changes in macromolecular composition and C, N, and P-allocation due to N-starvation and their implications for elemental stoichiometry under natural conditions. These results are compared to field observations of C:N:P stoichiometry and phytoplankton community structure to examine the physiological plasticity that may underlie global oceanic C:N:P variability and demonstrate the importance of this plasticity in trait based models.

Nocturnal heart rate variability in 1-year-old infants analyzed by using the Least Square Cosine Spectrum Method.

PubMed

Kochiya, Yuko; Hirabayashi, Akari; Ichimaru, Yuhei

2017-09-16

To evaluate the dynamic nature of nocturnal heart rate variability, RR intervals recorded with a wearable heart rate sensor were analyzed using the Least Square Cosine Spectrum Method. Six 1-year-old infants participated in the study. A wearable heart rate sensor was placed on their chest to measure RR intervals and 3-axis acceleration. Heartbeat time series were analyzed for every 30 s using the Least Square Cosine Spectrum Method, and an original parameter to quantify the regularity of respiratory-related heart rate rhythm was extracted and referred to as "RA (RA-COSPEC: Respiratory Area obtained by COSPEC)." The RA value is higher when a cosine curve is fitted to the original data series. The time sequential changes of RA showed cyclic changes with significant rhythm during the night. The mean cycle length of RA was 70 ± 15 min, which is shorter than young adult's cycle in our previous study. At the threshold level of RA greater than 3, the HR was significantly decreased compared with the RA value less than 3. The regularity of heart rate rhythm showed dynamic changes during the night in 1-year-old infants. Significant decrease of HR at the time of higher RA suggests the increase of parasympathetic activity. We suspect that the higher RA reflects the regular respiratory pattern during the night. This analysis system may be useful for quantitative assessment of regularity and dynamic changes of nocturnal heart rate variability in infants.

Assessment of vertical changes during maxillary expansion using quad helix or bonded rapid maxillary expander.

PubMed

Conroy-Piskai, Cara; Galang-Boquiren, Maria Therese S; Obrez, Ales; Viana, Maria Grace Costa; Oppermann, Nelson; Sanchez, Flavio; Edgren, Bradford; Kusnoto, Budi

2016-11-01

To determine if there is a significantly different effect on vertical changes during phase I palatal expansion treatment using a quad helix and a bonded rapid maxillary expander in growing skeletal Class I and Class II patients. This retrospective study looked at 2 treatment groups, a quad helix group and a bonded rapid maxillary expander group, before treatment (T1) and at the completion of phase I treatment (T2). Each treatment group was compared to an untreated predicted growth model. Lateral cephalograms at T1 and T2 were traced and analyzed for changes in vertical dimension. No differences were found between the treatment groups at T1, but significant differences at T2 were found for convexity, lower facial height, total facial height, facial axis, and Frankfort Mandibular Plane Angle (FMA) variables. A comparison of treatment groups at T2 to their respective untreated predicted growth models found a significant difference for the lower facial height variable in the quad helix group and for the upper first molar to palatal plane (U6-PP) variable in the bonded expander group. Overall, both the quad helix expander and the bonded rapid maxillary expander showed minimal vertical changes during palatal expansion treatment. The differences at T2 suggested that the quad helix expander had more control over skeletal vertical measurements. When comparing treatment results to untreated predicted growth values, the quad helix expander appeared to better maintain lower facial height and the bonded rapid maxillary expander appeared to better maintain the maxillary first molar vertical height.

Fall in homicides in the City of São Paulo: an exploratory analysis of possible determinants

PubMed Central

Peres, Maria Fernanda Tourinho; de Almeida, Juliana Feliciano; Vicentin, Diego; Cerda, Magdalena; Cardia, Nancy; Adorno, Sérgio

2012-01-01

Throughout the first decade of the 2000s the homicide mortality rate (HMR) showed a significant reduction in the state and the city of São Paulo (MSP). The aim of this study is to describe the trend of HMR, socio-demographic indicators, and the investment in social and public security, and to analyze the correlation between HMR and independent variables in the MSP between 1996 and 2008. An exploratory time series ecological study was conducted. The following variables were included: HMR per 100,000 inhabitants, socio-demographic indicators, and investments in social and public security. The moving-averages for all variables were calculated and trends were analyzed through Simple Linear Regression models. Annual percentage changes, the average annual change and periodic percentage changes were calculated for all variables, and the associations between annual percentage changes were tested by Spearman’s correlation analysis. Correlations were found for the proportion of youth in the population (r = 0.69), unemployment rate (r = 0.60), State budget for education and culture (r = 0.87) and health and sanitation (r = 0.56), municipal (r = 0.68) and State (r = 0.53) budget for Public Security, firearms seized (r = 0.69) and the incarceration rate (r = 0.71). The results allow us to support the hypothesis that demographic changes, acceleration of the economy, in particular the fall in unemployment, investment in social policies and changes in public security policies act synergistically to reduce HMR in São Paulo. Complex models of analysis, incorporating the joint action of different potential explanatory variables, should be developed. PMID:22218669

Effect of traffic density on drivers' lane change and overtaking maneuvers in freeway situation - A driving simulator based study.

PubMed

Yang, Liu; Li, Xiaomeng; Guan, Wei; Zhang, H Michael; Fan, Lingling

2018-05-14

The aim of this study is to examine the effect of traffic density on drivers' lane change and overtaking maneuvers. The differences between drivers' left and right lane-changing/overtaking maneuvers were also investigated. A driving simulator experiment was conducted and 24 participants took part in this experiment. Based on the driving simulation data, lane change frequency, time duration, average speed and acceleration were extracted as key variables of lane change maneuvers; overtaking frequency, overtaking duration, initial overtaking distance and headway, instantaneous speed and acceleration before overtaking were analyzed as the key overtaking variables. One-way repeated measures ANOVA, Friedman test and Wilcoxon signed-rank test were adopted for hypothesis tests with significance level of 0.05. Further pairwise comparisons were performed with a Bonferroni correction for multiple comparisons. Some significant differences in lane change and overtake behaviors were observed among different traffic densities: 1) both lane change and overtaking frequencies significantly increase with traffic density; 2) the average lane change acceleration and instantaneous overtaking acceleration significantly increase with traffic density; 3) as the traffic density increases, the initial overtaking distance and headway decrease. As for the effect of the directions of maneuvers: 1) the time duration of lane change and overtaking from right side was significantly shorter than that from left side; 2) the right initial overtaking distance/headway was smaller than that of left side; 3) the right instantaneous overtaking acceleration was significantly higher than the left instantaneous acceleration. The results showed that as traffic density increases, drivers' intention for lane change and overtaking is enhanced. Both initial overtaking distance and headway decrease with traffic density, which might influence road safety. In addition, drivers do not show a preference on the directions of lane change or overtaking according to the frequency. However, drivers tend to be more decisive and reckless when conducting the right overtaking because of a smaller distance/headway before overtaking, higher instantaneous acceleration and also a more restricted field of view compared with left overtaking.

Temporal variability in lipoprotein(a) levels in patients enrolled in the placebo arms of IONIS-APO(a)Rx and IONIS-APO(a)-LRx antisense oligonucleotide clinical trials.

PubMed

Marcovina, Santica M; Viney, Nicholas J; Hughes, Steven G; Xia, Shuting; Witztum, Joseph L; Tsimikas, Sotirios

Lipoprotein(a) [Lp(a)] levels are primarily genetically determined, but their natural variability is not well known. The aim of the study was to evaluate the short-term temporal variability in Lp(a) in 3 placebo groups from the IONIS-APO(a) Rx and IONIS-APO(a)-L Rx trials. The placebo groups comprised 3 studies: Study 1 with 10 subjects with any Lp(a) concentration; Study 2 with 13 subjects with Lp(a) ≥75 nmol/L (∼30 mg/dL); and Study 3 with 29 patients with Lp(a) ≥125 nmol/L (≥∼50 mg/dL). Lp(a) was measured in serial blood samples (range 7-12 samples up to 190 days of follow-up) and analyzed as absolute change and mean percent change from baseline. Outliers were defined as having a > ±25% difference in Lp(a) from baseline at any future time point. No significant temporal differences in mean absolute Lp(a) levels were present in any group. However, among individuals, the mean change in absolute Lp(a) levels at any time point ranged from -16.2 to +7.0 nmol/L in Study 1, -15.8 to +9.8 nmol/L in Study 2, and -60.2 to +16.6 nmol/L in Study 3. The mean percent change from baseline ranged from -9.4% to +21.6% for Study 1, -13.1% to 2.8% for Study 2, and -12.1% to +4.9% in Study 3. A total of 21 of 52 subjects (40.4%) were outliers, with 13 (62%) >25% up and 8 (38%) >25% down. Significant variability was also noted in other lipid parameters, but no outliers were noted with serum albumin. In subjects randomized to placebo in Lp(a) lowering trials, modest intra-individual temporal variability of mean Lp(a) levels was present. Significant number of subjects had > ±25% variation in Lp(a) in at least 1 time point. Although Lp(a) levels are primarily genetically determined, further study is required to define additional factors mediating short-term variability. Copyright © 2017 National Lipid Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Drought variability and change across the Iberian Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coll, J. R.; Aguilar, E.; Ashcroft, L.

2017-11-01

Drought variability and change was assessed across the Iberian Peninsula over more than 100 years expanding through the twentieth century and the first decade of the twenty-first century. Daily temperature and precipitation data from 24 Iberian time series were quality controlled and homogenized to create the Monthly Iberian Temperature and Precipitation Series (MITPS) for the period 1906-2010. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), driven only by precipitation, and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), based on the difference between the precipitation and the reference evapotranspiration (ET0), were computed at annual and seasonal scale to describe the evolution of droughts across time. The results confirmed that a clear temperature increase has occurred over the entire Iberian Peninsula at the annual and seasonal scale, but no significant changes in precipitation accumulated amounts were found. Similar drought variability was provided by the SPI and SPEI, although the SPEI showed greater drought severity and larger surface area affected by drought than SPI from 1980s to 2010 due to the increase in atmospheric evaporative demand caused by increased temperatures. Moreover, a clear drying trend was found by the SPEI for most of the Iberian Peninsula at annual scale and also for spring and summer, although the SPI did not experience significant changes in drought conditions. From the drying trend identified for most of the Iberian Peninsula along the twentieth century, an increase in drought conditions can also be expected for this region in the twenty-first century according to future climate change projections and scenarios.

Longitudinal change in physical activity and its correlates in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis.

PubMed

Motl, Robert W; McAuley, Edward; Sandroff, Brian M

2013-08-01

Physical activity is beneficial for people with multiple sclerosis (MS), but this population is largely inactive. There is minimal information on change in physical activity and its correlates for informing the development of behavioral interventions. This study examined change in physical activity and its symptomatic, social-cognitive, and ambulatory or disability correlates over a 2.5-year period of time in people with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis. On 6 occasions, each separated by 6 months, people (N=269) with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis completed assessments of symptoms, self-efficacy, walking impairment, disability, and physical activity. The participants wore an accelerometer for 7 days. The change in study variables over 6 time points was examined with unconditional latent growth curve modeling. The association among changes in study variables over time was examined using conditional latent growth curve modeling, and the associations were expressed as standardized path coefficients (β). There were significant linear changes in self-reported and objectively measured physical activity, self-efficacy, walking impairment, and disability over the 2.5-year period; there were no changes in fatigue, depression, and pain. The changes in self-reported and objective physical activity were associated with change in self-efficacy (β=.49 and β=.61, respectively), after controlling for other variables and confounders. The primary limitations of the study were the generalizability of results among those with progressive multiple sclerosis and inclusion of a single variable from social-cognitive theory. Researchers should consider designing interventions that target self-efficacy for the promotion and maintenance of physical activity in this population.

Computational study of peptide permeation through membrane: searching for hidden slow variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cardenas, Alfredo E.; Elber, Ron

2013-12-01

Atomically detailed molecular dynamics trajectories in conjunction with Milestoning are used to analyse the different contributions of coarse variables to the permeation process of a small peptide (N-acetyl-l-tryptophanamide, NATA) through a 1,2-dioleoyl-sn-glycero-3-phosphocholine membrane. The peptide reverses its overall orientation as it permeates through the biological bilayer. The large change in orientation is investigated explicitly but is shown to impact the free energy landscape and permeation time only moderately. Nevertheless, a significant difference in permeation properties of the two halves of the membrane suggests the presence of other hidden slow variables. We speculate, based on calculation of the potential of mean force, that a conformational transition of NATA makes significant contribution to these differences. Other candidates for hidden slow variables may include water permeation and collective motions of phospholipids.

The pharmacist Aggregate Demand Index to explain changing pharmacist demand over a ten-year period.

PubMed

Knapp, Katherine K; Shah, Bijal M; Barnett, Mitchell J

2010-12-15

To describe Aggregate Demand Index (ADI) trends from 1999-2010; to compare ADI time trends to concurrent data for US unemployment levels, US entry-level pharmacy graduates, and US retail prescription growth rate; and to determine which variables were significant predictors of ADI. Annual ADI data (dependent variable) were analyzed against annual unemployment rates, annual number of pharmacy graduates, and annual prescription growth rate (independent variables). ADI data trended toward lower demand levels for pharmacists since late 2006, paralleling the US economic downturn. National ADI data were most highly correlated with unemployment (p < 0.001), then graduates (p < 0.006), then prescription growth rate (p < 0.093). A hierarchical model with the 3 variables was significant (p = 0.019), but only unemployment was a significant ADI predictor. Unemployment and ADI also were significantly related at the regional, division, and state levels. The ADI is strongly linked to US unemployment rates. The relationship suggests that an improving economy might coincide with increased pharmacist demand. Predictable increases in future graduates and other factors support revisiting the modeling process as new data accumulate.

Community change in the variable resource habitat of the abyssal northeast Pacific.

PubMed

Ruhl, Henry A

2008-04-01

Research capable of differentiating resource-related community-level change from random ecological drift in natural systems has been limited. Evidence for nonrandom, resource-driven change is presented here for an epibenthic megafauna community in the abyssal northeast Pacific Ocean from 1989 to 2004. The sinking particulate organic carbon food supply is linked not only to species-specific abundances, but also to species composition and equitability. Shifts in rank abundance distributions (RADs) and evenness, from more to less equitable, correlated to increased food supply during La Niña phases of the El Niño Southern Oscillation. The results suggest that each taxon exhibited a differential response to a sufficiently low dimension resource, which led to changes in community composition and equitability. Thus the shifts were not likely due to random ecological drift. Although the community can undergo population-level variations of one or more orders of magnitude, and the shape of the RADs was variable, the organization retained a significant consistency, providing evidence of limits for such changes. The growing evidence for limited resource-driven changes in RADs and evenness further emphasizes the potential importance of temporally variable disequilibria in understanding why communities have certain basic attributes.

An hourly variation in zoo visitor interest: measurement and significance for animal welfare research.

PubMed

Davey, Gareth

2006-01-01

A methodological difficulty facing welfare research on nonhuman animals in the zoo is the large number of uncontrolled variables due to variation within and between study sites. Zoo visitors act as uncontrolled variables, with number, density, size, and behavior constantly changing. This is worrisome because previous research linked visitor variables to animal behavioral changes indicative of stress. There are implications for research design: Studies not accounting for visitors' effect on animal welfare risk confounding (visitor) variables distorting their findings. Zoos need methods to measure and minimize effects of visitor behavior and to ensure that there are no hidden variables in research models. This article identifies a previously unreported variable--hourly variation (decrease) in visitor interest--that may impinge on animal welfare and validates a methodology for measuring it. That visitor interest wanes across the course of the day has important implications for animal welfare management; visitor effects on animal welfare are likely to occur, or intensify, during the morning or in earlier visits when visitor interest is greatest. This article discusses this issue and possible solutions to reduce visitor effects on animal well-being.

Use of Heart Rate Variability and Photoplethysmograph-Derived Parameters as Assessment Signals of Radiofrequency Therapy Efficacy for Chronic Pain.

PubMed

Ye, Jing-Jhao; Chuang, Chiung-Cheng; Tai, Yu-Ting; Lee, Kuan-Ting; Hung, Kuo-Sheng

2017-09-01

Radiofrequency therapy (RFT) generates molecular motion and produces heat and electromagnetic effects on tissues, which attenuate pain sensation and thereby relieve pain. This study was to observe the altering trend of physiological parameters after RFT for chronic cervical or lumbar pain. This study recruited 66 patients with chronic cervical or lumbar pain and recorded their physiological parameters before and after RFT using heart rate variability (HRV) and photoplethysmography (PPG) to explore the feasibility of RFT efficacy assessment. The patients' visual analog scale scores significantly decreased after RFT and the HRV parameters that represented parasympathetic activity significantly changed (HR decreased, and R-R interval and low- and high-frequency power increased significantly). Meanwhile, the PPG parameters that represented sympathetic activity also increased (PPG amplitude and autonomic nervous system state significantly decreased). This study showed significant efficacy of RFT in patients with chronic cervical or lumbar pain. The changes of HRV and PPG parameters may explain part of the mechanisms of RFT. © 2016 World Institute of Pain.

Paleoecology and high-resolution paleohydrology of a kettle peatland in upper Michigan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Booth, Robert K.; Jackson, Stephen T.; Gray, Catherine E. D.

2004-01-01

We investigated the developmental and hydrological history of a Sphagnum-dominated, kettle peatland in Upper Michigan using testate amoebae, plant macrofossils, and pollen. Our primary objective was to determine if the paleohydrological record of the peatland represents a record of past climate variability at subcentennial to millennial time scales. To assess the role of millennial-scale climate variability on peatland paleohydrology, we compared the timing of peatland and upland vegetation changes. To investigate the role of higher-frequency climate variability on peatland paleohydrology, we used testate amoebae to reconstruct a high-resolution, hydrologic history of the peatland for the past 5100 years, and compared this record to other regional records of paleoclimate and vegetation. Comparisons revealed coherent patterns of hydrological, vegetational, and climatic changes, suggesting that peatland paleohydrology responded to climate variability at millennial to sub-centennial time scales. Although ombrotrophic peatlands have been the focus of most high-resolution peatland paleoclimate research, paleohydrological records from Sphagnum-dominated, closed-basin peatlands record high-frequency and low-magnitude climatic changes and thus represent a significant source of unexplored paleoclimate data.

The Future of Wind Energy in California: Future Projections in Variable-Resolution CESM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, M.; Ullrich, P. A.; Millstein, D.; Collier, C.

2017-12-01

This study focuses on the wind energy characterization and future projection at five primary wind turbine sites in California. Historical (1980-2000) and mid-century (2030-2050) simulations were produced using the Variable-Resolution Community Earth System Model (VR-CESM) to analyze the trends and variations in wind energy under climate change. Datasets from Det Norske Veritas Germanischer Llyod (DNV GL), MERRA-2, CFSR, NARR, as well as surface observational data were used for model validation and comparison. Significant seasonal wind speed changes under RCP8.5 were detected from several wind farm sites. Large-scale patterns were then investigated to analyze the synoptic-scale impact on localized wind change. The agglomerative clustering method was applied to analyze and group different wind patterns. The associated meteorological background of each cluster was investigated to analyze the drivers of different wind patterns. This study improves the characterization of uncertainty around the magnitude and variability in space and time of California's wind resources in the near future, and also enhances understanding of the physical mechanisms related to the trends in wind resource variability.

Climate and environmental change drives Ixodes ricinus geographical expansion at the northern range margin

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Global environmental change is causing spatial and temporal shifts in the distribution of species and the associated diseases of humans, domesticated animals and wildlife. In the on-going debate on the influence of climate change on vectors and vector-borne diseases, there is a lack of a comprehensive interdisciplinary multi-factorial approach utilizing high quality spatial and temporal data. Methods We explored biotic and abiotic factors associated with the latitudinal and altitudinal shifts in the distribution of Ixodes ricinus observed during the last three decades in Norway using antibodies against Anaplasma phagocytophilum in sheep as indicators for tick presence. Samples obtained from 2963 sheep from 90 farms in 3 ecologically different districts during 1978 – 2008 were analysed. We modelled the presence of antibodies against A. phagocytophilum to climatic-, environmental and demographic variables, and abundance of wild cervids and domestic animals, using mixed effect logistic regressions. Results Significant predictors were large diurnal fluctuations in ground surface temperature, spring precipitation, duration of snow cover, abundance of red deer and farm animals and bush encroachment/ecotones. The length of the growth season, mean temperature and the abundance of roe deer were not significant in the model. Conclusions Our results highlight the need to consider climatic variables year-round to disentangle important seasonal variation, climatic threshold changes, climate variability and to consider the broader environmental change, including abiotic and biotic factors. The results offer novel insight in how tick and tick-borne disease distribution might be modified by future climate and environmental change. PMID:24401487

Effects of Heart Rate Variability Biofeedback on EEG Alpha Asymmetry and Anxiety Symptoms in Male Athletes: A Pilot Study.

PubMed

Dziembowska, Inga; Izdebski, Paweł; Rasmus, Anna; Brudny, Janina; Grzelczak, Marta; Cysewski, Piotr

2016-06-01

Heart rate variability biofeedback (HRV-BFB) has been shown as useful tool to manage stress in various populations. The present study was designed to investigate whether the biofeedback-based stress management tool consisting of rhythmic breathing, actively self-generated positive emotions and a portable biofeedback device induce changes in athletes' HRV, EEG patterns, and self-reported anxiety and self-esteem. The study involved 41 healthy male athletes, aged 16-21 (mean 18.34 ± 1.36) years. Participants were randomly divided into two groups: biofeedback and control. Athletes in the biofeedback group received HRV biofeedback training, athletes in the control group didn't receive any intervention. During the randomized controlled trial (days 0-21), the mean anxiety score declined significantly for the intervention group (change-4 p < 0.001) but not for the control group (p = 0.817). In addition, as compared to the control, athletes in biofeedback group showed substantial and statistically significant improvement in heart rate variability indices and changes in power spectra of both theta and alpha brain waves, and alpha asymmetry. These changes suggest better self-control in the central nervous system and better flexibility of the autonomic nervous system in the group that received biofeedback training. A HRV biofeedback-based stress management tool may be beneficial for stress reduction for young male athletes.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chavas, Daniel R.; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Thomson, Allison M.

Increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are expected to induce significant climate change over the next century and beyond, but the impacts on society remain highly uncertain. This work examines potential climate change impacts on the productivity of five major crops in northeastern China: canola, corn, potato, rice, and winter wheat. In addition to determining domain-wide trends, the objective is to identify vulnerable and emergent regions under future climate conditions, defined as having a greater than 10% decrease and increase in productivity, respectively. Data from the ICTP RegCM3 regional climate model for baseline (1961-1990) and future (2071-2100) periods under A2 scenariomore » conditions are used as input in the EPIC agro-ecosystem simulation model in the domain [30ºN, 108ºE] to [42ºN, 123ºE]. Simulations are performed with and without the enhanced CO2 fertilization effect. Results indicate that aggregate potential productivity (i.e. if the crop is grown everywhere) increases 6.5% for rice, 8.3% for canola, 18.6% for corn, 22.9% for potato, and 24.9% for winter wheat, although with significant spatial variability for each crop. However, absent the enhanced CO2 fertilization effect, potential productivity declines in all cases ranging from 2.5-12%. Interannual yield variability remains constant or declines in all cases except rice. Climate variables are found to be more significant drivers of simulated yield changes than changes in soil properties, except in the case of potato production in the northwest where the effects of wind erosion are more significant. Overall, in the future period corn and winter wheat benefit significantly in the North China Plain, rice remains dominant in the southeast and emerges in the northeast, potato and corn yields become viable in the northwest, and potato yields suffer in the southwest with no other crop emerging as a clear beneficiary from among those simulated in this study.« less

Effects of task and age on the magnitude and structure of force fluctuations: insights into underlying neuro-behavioral processes.

PubMed

Vieluf, Solveig; Temprado, Jean-Jacques; Berton, Eric; Jirsa, Viktor K; Sleimen-Malkoun, Rita

2015-03-13

The present study aimed at characterizing the effects of increasing (relative) force level and aging on isometric force control. To achieve this objective and to infer changes in the underlying control mechanisms, measures of information transmission, as well as magnitude and time-frequency structure of behavioral variability were applied to force-time-series. Older adults were found to be weaker, more variable, and less efficient than young participants. As a function of force level, efficiency followed an inverted-U shape in both groups, suggesting a similar organization of the force control system. The time-frequency structure of force output fluctuations was only significantly affected by task conditions. Specifically, a narrower spectral distribution with more long-range correlations and an inverted-U pattern of complexity changes were observed with increasing force level. Although not significant older participants displayed on average a less complex behavior for low and intermediate force levels. The changes in force signal's regularity presented a strong dependence on time-scales, which significantly interacted with age and condition. An inverted-U profile was only observed for the time-scale relevant to the sensorimotor control process. However, in both groups the peak was not aligned with the optimum of efficiency. Our results support the view that behavioral variability, in terms of magnitude and structure, has a functional meaning and affords non-invasive markers of the adaptations of the sensorimotor control system to various constraints. The measures of efficiency and variability ought to be considered as complementary since they convey specific information on the organization of control processes. The reported weak age effect on variability and complexity measures suggests that the behavioral expression of the loss of complexity hypothesis is not as straightforward as conventionally admitted. However, group differences did not completely vanish, which suggests that age differences can be more or less apparent depending on task properties and whether difficulty is scaled in relative or absolute terms.

Bayesian hierarchical modelling of North Atlantic windiness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vanem, E.; Breivik, O. N.

2013-03-01

Extreme weather conditions represent serious natural hazards to ship operations and may be the direct cause or contributing factor to maritime accidents. Such severe environmental conditions can be taken into account in ship design and operational windows can be defined that limits hazardous operations to less extreme conditions. Nevertheless, possible changes in the statistics of extreme weather conditions, possibly due to anthropogenic climate change, represent an additional hazard to ship operations that is less straightforward to account for in a consistent way. Obviously, there are large uncertainties as to how future climate change will affect the extreme weather conditions at sea and there is a need for stochastic models that can describe the variability in both space and time at various scales of the environmental conditions. Previously, Bayesian hierarchical space-time models have been developed to describe the variability and complex dependence structures of significant wave height in space and time. These models were found to perform reasonably well and provided some interesting results, in particular, pertaining to long-term trends in the wave climate. In this paper, a similar framework is applied to oceanic windiness and the spatial and temporal variability of the 10-m wind speed over an area in the North Atlantic ocean is investigated. When the results from the model for North Atlantic windiness is compared to the results for significant wave height over the same area, it is interesting to observe that whereas an increasing trend in significant wave height was identified, no statistically significant long-term trend was estimated in windiness. This may indicate that the increase in significant wave height is not due to an increase in locally generated wind waves, but rather to increased swell. This observation is also consistent with studies that have suggested a poleward shift of the main storm tracks.

Personality and psychosocial function after brain injury.

PubMed

Malia, K; Powell, G; Torode, S

1995-10-01

A total of 74 brain-injured patients and 46 non-neurologically matched controls consecutively admitted to a specialist medical rehabilitation unit, were administered the 'Headley Court psychosocial rating scale' and four questionnaires examining personality traits of 'locus of control', 'use of humour', 'optimism' and 'easy-going disposition'. Both pre- and post-injury personality ratings were obtained. The relatives of all participants were sent the same scales. Personality changes are reported in each of the four areas; however, time post-injury appears to be a significant factor in the type of change reported; in this cross-sectional study, at 6 and 12 months post-injury, changes are noted in all variables except locus of control, whereas at 18 months post-injury only 'easy-going disposition' showed significant change, at 24 months post-injury changes were noted in all variables except optimism, and at 30 months post-injury no changes were noted. In the present study, examining a period of 2.5 years post-injury, the personality changes remain static once they have occurred. Despite widespread reports in the literature on the importance of pre- and post-trauma personality to good psychosocial functioning, the present study found that it was only an 'easy-going disposition' post-trauma that was consistently related to good psychosocial functioning. Reasons for this are discussed.

Inter-decadal change in potential predictability of the East Asian summer monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jiao; Ding, Ruiqiang; Wu, Zhiwei; Zhong, Quanjia; Li, Baosheng; Li, Jianping

2018-05-01

The significant inter-decadal change in potential predictability of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) has been investigated using the signal-to-noise ratio method. The relatively low potential predictability appears from the early 1950s through the late 1970s and during the early 2000s, whereas the potential predictability is relatively high from the early 1980s through the late 1990s. The inter-decadal change in potential predictability of the EASM can be attributed mainly to variations in the external signal of the EASM. The latter is mostly caused by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) inter-decadal variability. As a major external signal of the EASM, the ENSO inter-decadal variability experiences phase transitions from negative to positive phases in the late 1970s, and to negative phases in the late 1990s. Additionally, ENSO is generally strong (weak) during a positive (negative) phase of the ENSO inter-decadal variability. The strong ENSO is expected to have a greater influence on the EASM, and vice versa. As a result, the potential predictability of the EASM tends to be high (low) during a positive (negative) phase of the ENSO inter-decadal variability. Furthermore, a suite of Pacific Pacemaker experiments suggests that the ENSO inter-decadal variability may be a key pacemaker of the inter-decadal change in potential predictability of the EASM.

Observed and simulated changes in Antarctic sea ice and sea level pressure: anthropogenic or natural variability? (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hobbs, W. R.

2013-12-01

Statistically-significant changes in Antarctic sea ice cover and the overlying atmosphere have been observed over the last 30 years, but there is an open question of whether these changes are due to multi-decadal natural variability or an anthropogenically-forced response. A number of recent papers have shown that the slight increase in total sea ice cover is within the bounds of internal variability exhibited by coupled climate models in the CMIP5 suite. Modelled changes for the same time period generally show a decrease, but again with a magnitude that is within internal variability. However, in contrast to the Arctic, sea ice tends in the Antarctic are spatially highly heterogeneous, and consideration of the total ice cover may mask important regional signals. In this work, a robust ';fingerprinting' approach is used to show that the observed spatial pattern of sea ice trends is in fact outside simulated natural variability in west Antarctic, and furthermore that the CMIP5 models consistently show decreased ice cover in the Ross and Weddell Seas, sectors which in fact have an observed increase in cover. As a first step towards understanding the disagreement between models and observations, modelled sea level pressure trends are analysed using and optimal fingerprinting approach, to identify whether atmospheric deficiencies in the models can explain the model-observation discrepancy.

The Effect of Propulsion Style on Wrist Movement Variability During the Push Phase After a Bout of Fatiguing Propulsion.

PubMed

Zukowski, Lisa A; Christou, Evangelos A; Shechtman, Orit; Hass, Christopher J; Tillman, Mark D

2017-03-01

Wheelchair propulsion has been linked to overuse injuries regardless of propulsion style. Many aspects of the arcing (ARC) and semicircular (SEMI) propulsion styles have been compared, but differences in intracycle movement variability, which have been linked to overuse injuries, have not been examined. To explore how ARC and SEMI affect changes in intracycle wrist movement variability after a fatiguing bout of propulsion. Repeated measures crossover design. Wheelchair rollers and wheelchair fatigue course in a research laboratory. Twenty healthy, nondisabled adult men without previous wheelchair experience. Participants learned ARC and SEMI and used each to perform a wheelchair fatigue protocol. Thirty seconds of propulsion on rollers were recorded by motion-capture cameras before and after a fatigue protocol for each propulsion style on 2 testing days. Angular wrist orientations (flexion/extension and radial/ulnar deviation) and linear wrist trajectories (mediolateral direction) were computed, and intracycle movement variability was calculated as standard deviations of the detrended and filtered values during the push phase beginning and end. Paired samples t tests were used to compare ARC and SEMI based on the percent changes from pre- to postfatigue protocol. Both propulsion styles resulted in increased intracycle wrist movement variability postfatigue, but observed increases did not significantly differ between ARC and SEMI. This study evinces that intersubject variability exceeded average changes in intracycle wrist movement variability for both propulsion styles. Neither propulsion style resulting in a greater change in intracycle movement variability may suggest that no single propulsion style is ideal for everyone. The large intersubject variability may indicate that the propulsion style resulting in the smallest increase in intracycle movement variability after a fatiguing bout of propulsion may differ for each person and may help explain why wheelchair users self-select to use different propulsion styles. Copyright © 2017 American Academy of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Identification of weather variables sensitive to dysentery in disease-affected county of China.

PubMed

Liu, Jianing; Wu, Xiaoxu; Li, Chenlu; Xu, Bing; Hu, Luojia; Chen, Jin; Dai, Shuang

2017-01-01

Climate change mainly refers to long-term change in weather variables, and it has significant impact on sustainability and spread of infectious diseases. Among three leading infectious diseases in China, dysentery is exclusively sensitive to climate change. Previous researches on weather variables and dysentery mainly focus on determining correlation between dysentery incidence and weather variables. However, the contribution of each variable to dysentery incidence has been rarely clarified. Therefore, we chose a typical county in epidemic of dysentery as the study area. Based on data of dysentery incidence, weather variables (monthly mean temperature, precipitation, wind speed, relative humidity, absolute humidity, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature) and lagged analysis, we used principal component analysis (PCA) and classification and regression trees (CART) to examine the relationships between the incidence of dysentery and weather variables. Principal component analysis showed that temperature, precipitation, and humidity played a key role in determining transmission of dysentery. We further selected weather variables including minimum temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity based on results of PCA, and used CART to clarify contributions of these three weather variables to dysentery incidence. We found when minimum temperature was at a high level, the high incidence of dysentery occurred if relative humidity or precipitation was at a high level. We compared our results with other studies on dysentery incidence and meteorological factors in areas both in China and abroad, and good agreement has been achieved. Yet, some differences remain for three reasons: not identifying all key weather variables, climate condition difference caused by local factors, and human factors that also affect dysentery incidence. This study hopes to shed light on potential early warnings for dysentery transmission as climate change occurs, and provide a theoretical basis for the control and prevention of dysentery. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Changes in Physical Activity and Psychological Variables Following a Web-Based Motivational Interviewing Intervention: Pilot Study.

PubMed

Karnes, Sasha L; Meyer, Barbara B; Berger, Lisa M; Brondino, Michael J

2015-10-29

Web-based interventions for enhancing physical activity participation are in demand for application in health care settings. Recent research suggests Web-based interventions that are based on motivational interviewing are effective to increase physical activity. It is unclear whether motivational interviewing can influence targeted psychological variables such as perceived readiness, willingness, and ability to participate in physical activity. The aims of this study were to determine whether there were changes in physical activity and psychological variables associated with readiness, willingness, and perceived ability to participate in physical activity following completion of a novel Web-based intervention. The goal of the motivational interviewing-based intervention was to increase physical activity. Twenty-three underactive or inactive urban dwelling adults were recruited at a medical office for participation in a 4-session Web-based intervention lasting approximately 15 minutes per week. Sessions were based on principles of motivational interviewing. Assessment of physical activity was conducted using pedometers immediately prior to intervention participation (pre) and immediately post intervention (post1). Self-report assessments of physical activity and psychological variables were conducted using online surveys at pre, post1, and again at one month following intervention participation (post2). Comparisons of pre and post1 pedometer recordings revealed significant increases in steps per day (t22=2.09, P=.049). There were also significant changes in total physical activity energy expenditure per week (χ(2) 2=8.4, P=.02) and in moderate intensity physical activity energy expenditure per week (χ(2) 2=13.9, P<.001) over time following participation in the Web-based intervention. Significant changes in psychological variables following participation in the Web-based intervention included: (1) change in stage classification over time (χ(2) 2=21.5, P<.001), where the percentage of participants classified in the action or maintenance stages of change in physical activity increased over time (pre=25% [6/24], post1=71% [17/24], post2=68% [15/22]); (2) decreases in self-reported decisional balance cons (F2,42=12.76, P<.001); (3) increases in self-reported decisional balance pros (F2,42=16.19, P<.001); (4) increases in physical activity enjoyment (F2,20=3.85, P=.04); and (5) increases in self-efficacy (F2,42=3.30, P=.047). The Web-based intervention piloted in this study shows preliminary promise as a tool to promote physical activity in health care settings. Additional research is needed to test the effectiveness of motivational interviewing compared to a control condition and to refine content by considering mediation by psychological variables in a larger sample.

[The influence of immobilized fibronectin on karyotypic variability of two rat kangaroo kidney cell lines].

PubMed

Polianskaia, G G; Goriachaia, T S; Pinaev, G P

2007-01-01

The numerical and structural karyotypic variability has been investigated in "markerless" Rat kangaroo kidney cell lines NBL-3-17 and NBL-3-11 when cultivating on a fibronectin-coated surface. In cell line NBL-3-17, cultivated on the fibronectin-coated surface for 1, 2, 4 and 8 days, the character of cell distribution for the chromosome number has changed. These changes involve a significant decrease in frequency of cells with modal number of chromosomes, and an increase in frequency of cells with lower chromosomal number. Many new additional structural variants of the karyotype (SVK) appear. The observed alterations seem to be due preference adhesion of cells with lower chromosome number, disturbances of mitotic apparatus and selection of SVK, which are more adopted to changes in culture conditions. Detachment of cells from the fibronectin-coated surface, followed by 5 days cultivation on a hydrophilic surface restored control distribution. In cell line NBL-3-11, cultivated on the fibronectin-coated surface for 1, 2, 4 and 8 days, the character of numerical karyotypic variability did not change compared to control variants. In cell line NBL-3-17 the frequency of chromosomal aberrations under cultivation on the fibronectin-coated surface for 1, 2, 4 and 8 days did not change relative to control variants. In cell line NBL-3-11 the frequency of chromosomal aberrations under the same conditions significantly increases, mainly at the expence of chromosomal, chromatid breaks and dicentrics (telomeric association) relative to control variants. We discuss possible reasons of differences in the character of numerical and structural karyotypic variability between cell lines NBL-3-17 (hypotriploid) and NBL-3-11 (hypodiploid) under cultivation on fibronectin. The reasons of the observed interline karyotypic differences possibly consist in peculiarity of karyotypic structure of cell line NBL-3-11 and in the change of gene expression, namely in a dose of certain functioning genes in the hypotryploid cell line NBL-3-17.

Contribution of Lateral Column Lengthening to Correction of Forefoot Abduction in Stage IIb Adult Acquired Flatfoot Deformity Reconstruction.

PubMed

Chan, Jeremy Y; Greenfield, Stephen T; Soukup, Dylan S; Do, Huong T; Deland, Jonathan T; Ellis, Scott J

2015-12-01

Correction of forefoot abduction in stage IIb adult acquired flatfoot likely depends on the amount of lateral column lengthening (LCL) performed, although this represents only one aspect of a successful reconstruction. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the correlation between common reconstructive variables and the observed change in forefoot abduction. Forty-one patients who underwent flatfoot reconstruction involving an Evans-type LCL were assessed retrospectively. Preoperative and postoperative anteroposterior (AP) radiographs of the foot at a minimum of 40 weeks (mean, 2 years) after surgery were reviewed to determine correction in forefoot abduction as measured by talonavicular coverage (TNC) angle, talonavicular uncoverage percent, talus-first metatarsal (T-1MT) angle, and lateral incongruency angle. Fourteen demographic and intraoperative variables were evaluated for association with change in forefoot abduction including age, gender, height, weight, body mass index, as well as the amount of LCL and medializing calcaneal osteotomy performed, LCL graft type, Cotton osteotomy, first tarsometatarsal fusion, flexor digitorum longus transfer, spring ligament repair, gastrocnemius recession and any one of the modified McBride/Akin/Silver procedures. Two variables significantly affected the change in lateral incongruency angle. These were weight (P = .04) and the amount of LCL performed (P < .001). No variables were associated with the change in TNC angle, talonavicular uncoverage percent, or T-1MT angle. Multivariate regression analysis revealed that LCL was the only significant predictor of the change in lateral incongruency angle. The final regression model for LCL showed a good fit (R2 = 0.70, P < .001). Each millimeter of LCL corresponded to a 6.8-degree change in lateral incongruency angle. Correction of forefoot abduction in flatfoot reconstruction was primarily determined by the LCL procedure and could be modeled linearly. We believe that the lateral incongruency angle can serve as a valuable preoperative measurement to help surgeons titrate the proper amount of correction performed intraoperatively. © The Author(s) 2015.

Climate change but not unemployment explains the changing suicidality in Thessaloniki Greece (2000-2012).

PubMed

Fountoulakis, Konstantinos N; Savopoulos, Christos; Zannis, Prodromos; Apostolopoulou, Martha; Fountoukidis, Ilias; Kakaletsis, Nikolaos; Kanellos, Ilias; Dimellis, Dimos; Hyphantis, Thomas; Tsikerdekis, Athanasios; Pompili, Maurizio; Hatzitolios, Apostolos I

2016-03-15

Recently there was a debate concerning the etiology behind attempts and completed suicides. The aim of the current study was to search for possible correlations between the rates of attempted and completed suicide and climate variables and regional unemployment per year in the county of Thessaloniki, Macedonia, northern Greece, for the years 2000-12. The regional rates of suicide and attempted suicide as well as regional unemployment were available from previous publications of the authors. The climate variables were calculated from the daily E-OBS gridded dataset which is based on observational data Only the male suicide rates correlate significantly with high mean annual temperature but not with unemployment. The multiple linear regression analysis results suggest that temperature is the only variable that determines male suicides and explains 51% of their variance. Unemployment fails to contribute significantly to the model. There seems to be a seasonal distribution for attempts with mean rates being higher for the period from May to October and the rates clearly correlate with temperature. The highest mean rates were observed during May and August and the lowest during December and February. Multiple linear regression analysis suggests that temperature also determines the female attempts rate although the explained variable is significant but very low (3-5%) Climate variables and specifically high temperature correlate both with suicide and attempted suicide rates but with a different way between males and females. The climate effect was stronger than the effect of unemployment. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Using MERRA, AMIP II, CMIP5 Outputs to Assess Actual and Potential Building Climate Zone Change and Variability From the Last 30 Years Through 2100

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stackhouse, P. W.; Westberg, D. J.; Hoell, J. M., Jr.; Chandler, W.; Zhang, T.

2014-12-01

In the US, residential and commercial building infrastructure combined consumes about 40% of total energy usage and emits about 39% of total CO2emission (DOE/EIA "Annual Energy Outlook 2013"). Thus, increasing the energy efficiency of buildings is paramount to reducing energy costs and emissions. Building codes, as used by local and state enforcement entities are typically tied to the dominant climate within an enforcement jurisdiction classified according to various climate zones. These climates zones are based upon a 30-year average of local surface observations and are developed by DOE and ASHRAE (formerly known as the American Society of Hearting, Refrigeration and Air-Conditioning Engineers). A significant shortcoming of the methodology used in constructing such maps is the use of surface observations (located mainly near airports) that are unequally distributed and frequently have periods of missing data that need to be filled by various approximation schemes. This paper demonstrates the usefulness of using NASA's Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) atmospheric data assimilation to derive the ASHRAE climate zone maps and then using MERRA to define the last 30 years of variability in climate zones. These results show that there is a statistically significant increase in the area covered by warmer climate zones and some tendency for a reduction of area in colder climate zones that require longer time series to confirm. Using the uncertainties of the basic surface temperature and precipitation parameters from MERRA as determined by comparison to surface measurements, we first compare patterns and variability of ASHRAE climate zones from MERRA relative to present day climate model runs from AMIP simulations to establish baseline sensitivity. Based upon these results, we assess the variability of the ASHRAE climate zones according to CMIP runs through 2100 using an ensemble analysis that classifies model output changes by percentiles. Estimates of statistical significance are then compared to original model variability during the AMIP period. This work quantifies and tests for significance the changes seen in the various US regions that represent a potential contribution by NASA to the ongoing National Climate Assessment.

Mesospheric OH layer altitude at midlatitudes: variability over the Sierra Nevada Observatory in Granada, Spain (37° N, 3° W)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García-Comas, Maya; José López-González, María; González-Galindo, Francisco; de la Rosa, José Luis; López-Puertas, Manuel; Shepherd, Marianna G.; Shepherd, Gordon G.

2017-10-01

The mesospheric OH layer varies on several timescales, primarily driven by variations in atomic oxygen, temperature, density and transport (advection). Vibrationally excited OH airglow intensity, rotational temperature and altitude are closely interrelated and thus accompany each other through these changes. A correct interpretation of the OH layer variability from airglow measurements requires the study of the three variables simultaneously. Ground-based instruments measure excited OH intensities and temperatures with high temporal resolution, but they do not generally observe altitude directly. Information on the layer height is crucial in order to identify the sources of its variability and the causes of discrepancies in measurements and models. We have used SABER space-based 2002-2015 data to infer an empirical function for predicting the altitude of the layer at midlatitudes from ground-based measurements of OH intensity and rotational temperature. In the course of the analysis, we found that the SABER altitude (weighted by the OH volume emission rate) at midlatitudes decreases at a rate of 40 m decade-1, accompanying an increase of 0.7 % decade-1 in OH intensity and a decrease of 0.6 K decade-1 in OH equivalent temperature. SABER OH altitude barely changes with the solar cycle, whereas OH intensity and temperature vary by 7.8 % per 100 s.f.u. and 3.9 K per 100 s.f.u., respectively. For application of the empirical function to Sierra Nevada Observatory SATI data, we have calculated OH intensity and temperature SATI-to-SABER transfer functions, which point to relative instrumental drifts of -1.3 % yr-1 and 0.8 K yr-1, respectively, and a temperature bias of 5.6 K. The SATI predicted altitude using the empirical function shows significant short-term variability caused by overlapping waves, which often produce changes of more than 3-4 km in a few hours, going along with 100 % and 40 K changes in intensity and temperature, respectively. SATI OH layer wave effects are smallest in summer and largest around New Year's Day. Moreover, those waves vary significantly from day to day. Our estimations suggest that peak-to-peak OH nocturnal variability, mainly due to wave variability, changes within 60 days at least 0.8 km for altitude in autumn, 45 % for intensity in early winter and 6 K for temperature in midwinter. Plausible upper limit ranges of those variabilities are 0.3-0.9 km, 40-55 % and 4-7 K, with the exact values depending on the season.

Economic factors influencing land use changes in the South-Central United States

Treesearch

Ralph J. Alig; Fred C. White; Brian C. Murray

1988-01-01

Econometric models of land use change were estimated for two physiographic regions in the South-Central United States. Results are consistent-with the economic hierarchy of land use, with population and personal income being significant explanatory variables. Findings regarding the importance of relative agricultural and forestry market-based incomes in influencing...

Investigating glacial mass balance variability around the Prince Gustav Channel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Royston, Samantha; Gudmundsson, Hilmar; Clarke, Lucy; Fox, Adrian

2015-04-01

Glaciers on the Antarctic Peninsula have shown a varied response to recent climatic change. Most commonly, AP tidewater glaciers have retreated at the calving front and their flow rate has accelerated, increasing the contribution to sea level rise. Here, we utilise the results from a new photogrammetric technique that unlocks the archives of aerial photography from the 1940's to present, to investigate the driving mechanisms of glacier mass change on the AP over this period. Surface DEMs at different epochs have been derived using the new technique for a number of individual glacier basins. A higher-order vertically-integrated ice stream model is used to investigate the driving mechanisms of change for the area around the Prince Gustav Channel, incorporating basins covered by the new datasets. The Prince Gustav Ice Shelf collapsed in January 1995, followed by significant frontal retreat and speed up of its tributary glaciers. Additionally, significant changes have been observed for non-tributary glaciers such as Whisky Glacier on James Ross Island. Here, we investigate the sensitivity of this region's glaciers to ice shelf collapse, atmospheric and oceanic variability.

Non-neural BOLD variability in block and event-related paradigms.

PubMed

Kannurpatti, Sridhar S; Motes, Michael A; Rypma, Bart; Biswal, Bharat B

2011-01-01

Block and event-related stimulus designs are typically used in fMRI studies depending on the importance of detection power or estimation efficiency. The extent of vascular contribution to variability in block and event-related fMRI-BOLD response is not known. With scaling, the extent of vascular variability in the fMRI-BOLD response during block and event-related design tasks was investigated. Blood oxygen level-dependent (BOLD) contrast data from healthy volunteers performing a block design motor task and an event-related memory task requiring performance of a motor response were analyzed from the regions of interest (ROIs) surrounding the primary and supplementary motor cortices. Average BOLD signal change was significantly larger during the block design compared to the event-related design. In each subject, BOLD signal change across voxels in the ROIs had higher variation during the block design task compared to the event-related design task. Scaling using the resting state fluctuation of amplitude (RSFA) and breath-hold (BH), which minimizes BOLD variation due to vascular origins, reduced the within-subject BOLD variability in every subject during both tasks but significantly reduced BOLD variability across subjects only during the block design task. The strong non-neural source of intra- and intersubject variability of BOLD response during the block design compared to event-related task indicates that study designs optimizing for statistical power through enhancement of the BOLD contrast (for, e.g., block design) can be affected by enhancement of non-neural sources of BOLD variability. Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Inc.

A cross-sectional analysis of age and sex patterns in grip strength, tooth loss, near vision and hearing levels in Chinese aged 50-74 years.

PubMed

Wu, Yili; Pang, Zengchang; Zhang, Dongfeng; Jiang, Wenjie; Wang, Shaojie; Li, Shuxia; Kruse, Torben A; Christensen, Kaare; Tan, Qihua

2012-01-01

By focusing on four health variables, handgrip strength, near visual acuity, tooth loss and hearing level, this study examined the different patterns of age-related changes in these variables in Chinese aged from 50 to 74 years, as well as explored the relationship among the variables in a cross-sectional sample of 2006 individuals. The data exhibited high quality with a low missing rate of under 5% in any age groups for each variable. Effects of age and sex on the changes in the four health variables were assessed using multiple regression models with age and sex interactions included. Upon the highly significant effects of age on all four measurements, we observed substantially higher grip strength for men who, however, exhibited a faster age-related decline than for women. No sex difference or age-sex interaction was found in the number of teeth lost. Near visual acuity displayed a faster age-related decline in women than in men but neither the overall sex difference nor age-sex interaction reached statistical significance. For hearing function, while no sex difference was found at middle frequency, women had better sensitivity at high frequency and men were more sensitive at low frequency. Multivariate analysis did not support an age-related common mechanism underlying the four health variables. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Psychosocial predictors of emotional eating and their weight-loss treatment-induced changes in women with obesity.

PubMed

Annesi, James J; Mareno, Nicole; McEwen, Kristin

2016-06-01

This study aimed at assessing whether psychosocial predictors of controlled eating and weight loss also predict emotional eating, and how differing weight-loss treatment methods affect those variables. Women with obesity (M = 47.8 ± 7.9 years; BMI = 35.4 ± 3.3 kg/m(2)) were randomized into groups of either phone-supported self-help (Self-Help; n = 50) or in-person contact (Personal Contact; n = 53) intended to increase exercise, improve eating behaviors, and reduce weight over 6 months. A multiple regression analysis indicated that at baseline mood, self-regulating eating, body satisfaction, and eating-related self-efficacy significantly predicted emotional eating (R (2) = 0.35), with mood and self-efficacy as independent predictors. Improvements over 6 months on each psychosocial measure were significantly greater in the Personal Contact group. Changes in mood, self-regulation, body satisfaction, and self-efficacy significantly predicted emotional eating change (R (2) = 0.38), with all variables except self-regulation change being an independent predictor. Decreased emotional eating was significantly associated with weight loss. Findings suggest that weight-loss interventions should target specific psychosocial factors to improve emotional eating. The administration of cognitive-behavioral methods through personal contact might be more beneficial for those improvements than self-help formats.

Relationship between strength, power, speed, and change of direction performance of female softball players.

PubMed

Nimphius, Sophia; McGuigan, Michael R; Newton, Robert U

2010-04-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate (a) the cross-sectional relationship of strength, power, and performance variables in trained female athletes and (b) determine if the relationship between these variables changes over the course of a season. Ten female softball players (age = 18.1 +/- 1.6 years, height = 166.5 +/- 8.9 cm, and weight = 72.4 +/- 10.8 kg) from a state Australian Institute of Sport softball team were tested for maximal lower body strength (one repetition maximum [1RM]), peak force (PF), peak velocity (PV), and peak power (PP) during jump squats unloaded and loaded, unloaded countermovement vertical jump height (VJH) 1 base and 2 base sprint performance and change of direction performance on dominant and nondominant sides. The testing sessions occurred pre, mid, and post a 20-week training period. Relationship between body weight (BW), relative strength (1RM/BW), VJH, relative PP, relative PF, PV, speed, and change of direction variables were assessed by Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient at each testing session. Significant relationships were found across all time points with BW, speed, and change of direction measures (r = 0.70-0.93) and relative strength and measures of speed and change of direction ability (r = -0.73-0.85). There were no significant relationships between VJH and any measure of performance at any time point. In conclusion, BW and relative strength have strong to very strong correlations with speed and change of direction ability, and these correlations remain consistent over the course of the season. However, it seems as if many relationships vary with time, and their relationships should therefore be investigated longitudinally to better determine if these cross-sectional relationships truly reflect a deterministic relationship.

The significance of spatial variability of rainfall on streamflow: A synthetic analysis at the Upper Lee catchment, UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pechlivanidis, Ilias; McIntyre, Neil; Wheater, Howard

2017-04-01

Rainfall, one of the main inputs in hydrological modeling, is a highly heterogeneous process over a wide range of scales in space, and hence the ignorance of the spatial rainfall information could affect the simulated streamflow. Calibration of hydrological model parameters is rarely a straightforward task due to parameter equifinality and parameters' 'nature' to compensate for other uncertainties, i.e. structural and forcing input. In here, we analyse the significance of spatial variability of rainfall on streamflow as a function of catchment scale and type, and antecedent conditions using the continuous time, semi-distributed PDM hydrological model at the Upper Lee catchment, UK. The impact of catchment scale and type is assessed using 11 nested catchments ranging in scale from 25 to 1040 km2, and further assessed by artificially changing the catchment characteristics and translating these to model parameters with uncertainty using model regionalisation. Synthetic rainfall events are introduced to directly relate the change in simulated streamflow to the spatial variability of rainfall. Overall, we conclude that the antecedent catchment wetness and catchment type play an important role in controlling the significance of the spatial distribution of rainfall on streamflow. Results show a relationship between hydrograph characteristics (streamflow peak and volume) and the degree of spatial variability of rainfall for the impermeable catchments under dry antecedent conditions, although this decreases at larger scales; however this sensitivity is significantly undermined under wet antecedent conditions. Although there is indication that the impact of spatial rainfall on streamflow varies as a function of catchment scale, the variability of antecedent conditions between the synthetic catchments seems to mask this significance. Finally, hydrograph responses to different spatial patterns in rainfall depend on assumptions used for model parameter estimation and also the spatial variation in parameters indicating the need of an uncertainty framework in such investigation.

The role of sex and body weight on the metabolic effects of high-fat diet in C57BL/6N mice

PubMed Central

Ingvorsen, C; Karp, N A; Lelliott, C J

2017-01-01

Background: Metabolic disorders are commonly investigated using knockout and transgenic mouse models on the C57BL/6N genetic background due to its genetic susceptibility to the deleterious metabolic effects of high-fat diet (HFD). There is growing awareness of the need to consider sex in disease progression, but limited attention has been paid to sexual dimorphism in mouse models and its impact in metabolic phenotypes. We assessed the effect of HFD and the impact of sex on metabolic variables in this strain. Methods: We generated a reference data set encompassing glucose tolerance, body composition and plasma chemistry data from 586 C57BL/6N mice fed a standard chow and 733 fed a HFD collected as part of a high-throughput phenotyping pipeline. Linear mixed model regression analysis was used in a dual analysis to assess the effect of HFD as an absolute change in phenotype, but also as a relative change accounting for the potential confounding effect of body weight. Results: HFD had a significant impact on all variables tested with an average absolute effect size of 29%. For the majority of variables (78%), the treatment effect was modified by sex and this was dominated by male-specific or a male stronger effect. On average, there was a 13.2% difference in the effect size between the male and female mice for sexually dimorphic variables. HFD led to a significant body weight phenotype (24% increase), which acts as a confounding effect on the other analysed variables. For 79% of the variables, body weight was found to be a significant source of variation, but even after accounting for this confounding effect, similar HFD-induced phenotypic changes were found to when not accounting for weight. Conclusion: HFD and sex are powerful modifiers of metabolic parameters in C57BL/6N mice. We also demonstrate the value of considering body size as a covariate to obtain a richer understanding of metabolic phenotypes. PMID:28394359

Relationships between atmospheric circulation indices and rainfall in Northern Algeria and comparison of observed and RCM-generated rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taibi, S.; Meddi, M.; Mahé, G.; Assani, A.

2017-01-01

This work aims, as a first step, to analyze rainfall variability in Northern Algeria, in particular extreme events, during the period from 1940 to 2010. Analysis of annual rainfall shows that stations in the northwest record a significant decrease in rainfall since the 1970s. Frequencies of rainy days for each percentile (5th, 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, 90th, 95th, and 99th) and each rainfall interval class (1-5, 5-10, 10-20, 20-50, and ≥50 mm) do not show a significant change in the evolution of daily rainfall. The Tenes station is the only one to show a significant decrease in the frequency of rainy days up to the 75th percentile and for the 10-20-mm interval class. There is no significant change in the temporal evolution of extreme events in the 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles. The relationships between rainfall variability and general atmospheric circulation indices for interannual and extreme event variability are moderately influenced by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Mediterranean Oscillation. Significant correlations are observed between the Southern Oscillation Index and annual rainfall in the northwestern part of the study area, which is likely linked with the decrease in rainfall in this region. Seasonal rainfall in Northern Algeria is affected by the Mediterranean Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation in the west. The ENSEMBLES regional climate models (RCMs) are assessed using the bias method to test their ability to reproduce rainfall variability at different time scales. The Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM), Czech Hydrometeorological Institute (CHMI), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich (ETHZ), and Forschungszentrum Geesthacht (GKSS) models yield the least biased results.

Decadal variability on the Northwest European continental shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, Sam; Cottier, Finlo; Inall, Mark; Griffiths, Colin

2018-02-01

Decadal scale time series of the shelf seas are important for understanding both climate and process studies. Despite numerous investigations of long-term temperature variability in the shelf seas, studies of salinity variability are few. Salt is a more conservative tracer than temperature in shallow seas, and it can reveal changes in local hydrographic conditions as well as transmitted basin-scale changes. Here, new inter-annual salinity time series on the northwest European shelf are developed and a 13 year high resolution salinity record from a coastal mooring in western Scotland is presented and analysed. We find strong temporal variability in coastal salinity on timescales ranging from tidal to inter-annual, with the magnitude of variability greatest during winter months. There is little seasonality and no significant decadal trend in the coastal time series of salinity. We propose 4 hydrographic states to explain salinity variance in the shelf area west of Scotland based on the interaction between a baroclinic coastal current and wind-forced barotropic flow: while wind forcing is important, we find that changes in the buoyancy-driven flow are more likely to influence long-term salinity observations. We calculate that during prevailing westerly wind conditions, surface waters in the Sea of the Hebrides receive a mix of 62% Atlantic origin water to 38% coastal sources. This contrasts with easterly wind conditions, during which the mix is 6% Atlantic to 94% coastal sources on average. This 'switching' between hydrographic states is expected to impact nutrient transport and therefore modify the level of primary productivity on the shelf. This strong local variability in salinity is roughly an order of magnitude greater than changes in the adjacent ocean basin, and we infer from this that Scottish coastal waters are likely to be resilient to decadal changes in ocean climate.

Comparison of outcomes and other variables between conference abstracts and subsequent peer-reviewed papers involving pre-harvest or abattoir-level interventions against foodborne pathogens.

PubMed

Snedeker, Kate G; Campbell, Mollie; Totton, Sarah C; Guthrie, Alessia; Sargeant, Jan M

2010-11-01

Accuracy in the reporting of studies in conference abstracts is important because the majority of studies in such abstracts are never further detailed in peer-reviewed publications, and data from such abstracts may be used in systematic reviews. Previous research on interventional studies in human biomedicine indicates that there is no guarantee of consistency between a conference abstract and paper in the reporting of results and other key variables. However, no research has been done to determine if this lack of reporting consistency in abstracts and papers extends to interventional studies in pre-harvest/harvest-level food safety. The goal of this study was to compare outcome results and other key variables between conference abstracts and subsequent peer-reviewed publications describing studies of pre-harvest and abattoir-level interventions against foodborne pathogens, and to determine whether the agreement in the results or key variables was associated with the time to full publication. A systematic search identified 59 conference abstracts with matching peer-reviewed papers (matches), and data on variables including outcome measures and results, pathogens, species, interventions, overall efficacy of intervention, sample size and housing were extracted from both the conference abstracts and the papers. The matching of variables between abstracts and papers was described, and logistic regression used to test for associations between variable matching and time to publication. Sample size was only provided for both abstract and paper in 24 matches; the same sample size was reported in 20 of these matches. Most other variables were reported in the majority of abstracts/papers, and with the exception of outcomes and intervention effect, the reporting of variables was relatively consistent. There was no significant difference in the numbers of authors, with the first author the same in 78.3% of matches. Of 231 outcome measures reported in both abstracts and papers, nearly one third (77% or 32.2%) had different results, with 32 changing direction of effect. More than a quarter of matches involved at least one significant change in outcome result. The overall conclusion on the efficacy of the intervention changed in 10.7% of matches. There was a significant association between increased time to publication and differences in the number of authors, and having fewer outcome measures in the abstract reported in the paper. These results suggest that data from conference abstracts should be considered with caution. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A six-month prospective evaluation of personality traits, psychiatric symptoms and quality of life in ayahuasca-naïve subjects.

PubMed

Barbosa, Paulo Cesar Ribeiro; Cazorla, Irene Maurício; Giglio, Joel Sales; Strassman, Rick

2009-09-01

The authors assessed 23 subjects immediately before and six months (27.5 weeks) after their first ayahuasca experience in an urban Brazilian religious setting, either Santo Daime (N = 15) or União do Vegetal (N = 8). Measures included scores on instruments assessing psychiatric symptoms, personality variables and quality of life. Independent variables were the frequency of ayahuasca use throughout the period and the length of ayahuasca wash-out after six months. Santo Daime subjects had a significant reduction of minor psychiatric symptoms, improvement of mental health, and a change in attitude towards more confidence and optimism. The União do Vegetal group had a significant decrease in physical pain, and attitude change towards more independence. Independence was positively correlated with the frequency of ayahuasca use and negatively correlated with the wash-out period. We discuss possible mechanisms by which these changes may occur and suggest areas for future research.

Climate-driven changes to the atmospheric CO2 sink in the subtropical North Pacific Ocean.

PubMed

Dore, John E; Lukas, Roger; Sadler, Daniel W; Karl, David M

2003-08-14

The oceans represent a significant sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide. Variability in the strength of this sink occurs on interannual timescales, as a result of regional and basin-scale changes in the physical and biological parameters that control the flux of this greenhouse gas into and out of the surface mixed layer. Here we analyse a 13-year time series of oceanic carbon dioxide measurements from station ALOHA in the subtropical North Pacific Ocean near Hawaii, and find a significant decrease in the strength of the carbon dioxide sink over the period 1989-2001. We show that much of this reduction in sink strength can be attributed to an increase in the partial pressure of surface ocean carbon dioxide caused by excess evaporation and the accompanying concentration of solutes in the water mass. Our results suggest that carbon dioxide uptake by ocean waters can be strongly influenced by changes in regional precipitation and evaporation patterns brought on by climate variability.

A study to compare traditional and constructivism-based instruction of a high school biology unit on biosystematics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saigo, Barbara Woodworth

The researcher collaborated with four high school biology teachers who had been involved for 2-1/2 years in a constructivism-based professional development experience that emphasized teaching for conceptual change and using classroom-based inquiry as a basis for making instructional decisions. The researcher and teachers designed a five-day instructional unit on biosystematics using two contrasting approaches, comprising the treatment variable. The "traditional" unit emphasized lecture, written materials, and some laboratory activities. The "constructivist" unit emphasized a specific, inquiry-based, conceptual change strategy and collaborative learning. The study used a quasi-experimental, factorial design to explore impact of instructional approach (the treatment variable) on student performance (the dependent variable) on repeated measures (three) of a biology concept test. Additional independent variables considered were gender, cumulative GPA, and the section in which students were enrolled. Scores on the biology concept test were compiled for the 3 constructivist sections (N = 44) and the 3 traditional sections (N = 42). Analysis of Covariance (ANCOVA) was applied. The main findings in regard to the primary research question were that instructional approach did not have a significant relationship to immediate post test scores or gain, but that one month after instruction students in the constructivist group demonstrated less loss of gain than those in the traditional group; i.e., their longer-term retention was greater. Also, GPA*instructional approach effects were detected for post-post-test gain. GPA and gender were significantly associated with pre-test, post-test, and post-post scores; however, in terms of change (gain) from pre-test to post-test and pre-test to post-post-test, GPA and gender were not significant effects. Section was a significant effect for all three tests, in terms of both score and gain. Gender*section effects were detected for post-test gain and post-post-test scores.

Dry-wet variations and cause analysis in Northeast China at multi-time scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Qi; Pan, Feifei; Pan, Xuebiao; Hu, Liting; Wang, Xiaoxiao; Yang, Pengyu; Wei, Pei; Pan, Zhihua

2017-07-01

Global warming has caused unevenly distributed changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration, which has and will certainly impact on the wet-dry variations. Based on daily meteorological data collected at 91 weather stations in Northeast China (NEC), the spatiotemporal characteristics of dry and wet climatic variables (precipitation, crop reference evapotranspiration (ET0), and humid index (HI)) are analyzed, and the probable reasons causing the changes in these variables are discussed during the period of 1961-2014. Precipitation showed non-significant trend over the period of 1961-2014, while ET0 showed a significant decreasing trend, which led to climate wetting in NEC. The period of 2001-2012 exhibited smaller semiarid area and larger humid area compared to the period of 1961-1980, indicating NEC has experienced wetting process at decadal scale. ET0 was most sensitive to relative humidity, and wind speed was the second most sensitive variable. Sunshine hours and temperature were found to be less influential to ET0 in the study area. The changes in wind speed in the recent 54 years have caused the greatest influence on ET0, followed by temperature. For each month, wind speed was the most significant variable causing ET0 reduction in all months except July. Temperature, as a dominant factor, made a positive contribution to ET0 in February and March, as well as sunshine hours in June and July, and relative humidity in August and September. In summary, NEC has experienced noticeable climate wetting due to the significantly decreasing ET0, and the decrease in wind speed was the biggest contributor for the ET0 reduction. Although agricultural drought crisis is expected to be partly alleviated, regional water resources management and planning in Northeast China should consider the potential water shortage and water conflict in the future because of spatiotemporal dry-wet variations in NEC.

Quantifying the hydrological responses to climate change in an intact forested small watershed in Southern China

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhou, G.; Wei, X.; Wu, Y.; Huang, Y.; Yan, J.; Zhang, Dongxiao; Zhang, Q.; Liu, J.; Meng, Z.; Wang, C.; Chu, G.; Liu, S.; Tang, X.; Liu, Xiuying

2011-01-01

Responses of hydrological processes to climate change are key components in the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) assessment. Understanding these responses is critical for developing appropriate mitigation and adaptation strategies for sustainable water resources management and protection of public safety. However, these responses are not well understood and little long-term evidence exists. Herein, we show how climate change, specifically increased air temperature and storm intensity, can affect soil moisture dynamics and hydrological variables based on both long-term observation and model simulations using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in an intact forested watershed (the Dinghushan Biosphere Reserve) in Southern China. Our results show that, although total annual precipitation changed little from 1950 to 2009, soil moisture decreased significantly. A significant decline was also found in the monthly 7-day low flow from 2000 to 2009. However, the maximum daily streamflow in the wet season and unconfined groundwater tables have significantly increased during the same 10-year period. The significant decreasing trends on soil moisture and low flow variables suggest that the study watershed is moving towards drought-like condition. Our analysis indicates that the intensification of rainfall storms and the increasing number of annual no-rain days were responsible for the increasing chance of both droughts and floods. We conclude that climate change has indeed induced more extreme hydrological events (e.g. droughts and floods) in this watershed and perhaps other areas of Southern China. This study also demonstrated usefulness of our research methodology and its possible applications on quantifying the impacts of climate change on hydrology in any other watersheds where long-term data are available and human disturbance is negligible. ?? 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Quantifying the hydrological responses to climate change in an intact forested small watershed in southern China

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhou, Guo-Yi; Wei, Xiaohua; Wu, Yiping; Liu, Shu-Guang; Huang, Yuhui; Yan, Junhua; Zhang, Deqiang; Zhang, Qianmei; Liu, Juxiu; Meng, Ze; Wang, Chunlin; Chu, Guowei; Liu, Shizhong; Tang, Xu-Li; Liu, Xiaodong

2011-01-01

Responses of hydrological processes to climate change are key components in the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) assessment. Understanding these responses is critical for developing appropriate mitigation and adaptation strategies for sustainable water resources management and protection of public safety. However, these responses are not well understood and little long-term evidence exists. Herein, we show how climate change, specifically increased air temperature and storm intensity, can affect soil moisture dynamics and hydrological variables based on both long-term observation and model simulations using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in an intact forested watershed (the Dinghushan Biosphere Reserve) in Southern China. Our results show that, although total annual precipitation changed little from 1950 to 2009, soil moisture decreased significantly. A significant decline was also found in the monthly 7-day low flow from 2000 to 2009. However, the maximum daily streamflow in the wet season and unconfined groundwater tables have significantly increased during the same 10-year period. The significant decreasing trends on soil moisture and low flow variables suggest that the study watershed is moving towards drought-like condition. Our analysis indicates that the intensification of rainfall storms and the increasing number of annual no-rain days were responsible for the increasing chance of both droughts and floods. We conclude that climate change has indeed induced more extreme hydrological events (e.g. droughts and floods) in this watershed and perhaps other areas of Southern China. This study also demonstrated usefulness of our research methodology and its possible applications on quantifying the impacts of climate change on hydrology in any other watersheds where long-term data are available and human disturbance is negligible.

Hydro-meteorological trends in the Gidabo catchment of the Rift Valley Lakes Basin of Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belihu, Mamuye; Abate, Brook; Tekleab, Sirak; Bewket, Woldeamlak

2018-04-01

The global and regional variability and changes of climate and stream flows are likely to have significant influence on water resource availability. The magnitude and impacts of climate variability and change differs spatially and temporally. This study examines the long term hydroclimatic changes, analyses of the hydro-climate variability and detect whether there exist significant trend or not in the Gidabo catchment, rift valley lakes basin of Ethiopia. Precipitation, temperature and stream flow time series data were used in monthly, seasonal and annual time scales. The precipitation and temperature data span is between 1982 and 2014 and that of stream flow is between 1976 and 2006. To detect trends the analysis were done by using Mann Kendal (MK), Sen's graphical method and to detect change point using the Pettit test. The comparison of trend analysis between MK trend test and Sen graphical method results depict mostly similar pattern. The annual rainfall trends exhibited a significant decrease by about 12 mm per year in the upstream, which is largely driven by the significant decrease in the peak season rainfall. The Pettit test revealed that the years 1997 and 2007 were the change points. It is noted that the rise of temperature over a catchment might have decreased the availability of soil moisture which resulted in less runoff. The temperature analyses also revealed that the catchment was getting warmer; particularly in the upstream. The minimum temperature trend showed a significant increase about 0.08°c per annum. There is generally a decreasing trend in stream flow. The monthly stream flow also exhibited a decreasing trend in February, March and September. The decline in annual and seasonal rainfall and the increase in temperature lead to more evaporation and directly affecting the stream flow negatively. This trend compounded with the growth of population and increasing demand for irrigation water exacerbates the competing demand for water resources. It thus calls for prudence in devising appropriate intervention in the planning and sustainable development of the basin water resources.

Comparison of Prophylactic Naftopidil, Tamsulosin, and Silodosin for {sup 125}I Brachytherapy-Induced Lower Urinary Tract Symptoms in Patients With Prostate Cancer: Randomized Controlled Trial

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tsumura, Hideyasu, E-mail: sugan@pd5.so-net.ne.jp; Satoh, Takefumi; Ishiyama, Hiromichi

2011-11-15

Purpose: To compare the efficacy of three {alpha}{sub 1A}/{alpha}{sub 1D}-adrenoceptor (AR) antagonists-naftopidil, tamsulosin, and silodosin-that have differing affinities for the {alpha}{sub 1}-AR subtypes in treating urinary morbidities in Japanese men with {sup 125}I prostate implantation (PI) for prostate cancer. Methods and Materials: This single-institution prospective randomized controlled trial compared naftopidil, tamsulosin, and silodosin in patients undergoing PI. Patients were randomized and received either naftopidil, tamsulosin, or silodosin. Treatment began 1 day after PI and continued for 1 year. The primary efficacy variables were the changes in total International Prostate Symptom Score (IPSS) and postvoid residual urine (PVR). The secondary efficacymore » variables were changes in IPSS storage score and IPSS voiding score from baseline to set points during the study (1, 3, 6, and 12 months). Results: Two hundred twelve patients were evaluated in this study between June 2006 and February 2009: 71, 70, and 71 patients in the naftopidil, tamsulosin, and silodosin groups, respectively. With respect to the primary efficacy variables, the mean changes in the total IPSS at 1 month after PI in the naftopidil, tamsulosin, and silodosin groups were +10.3, +8.9, and +7.5, respectively. There were significantly greater decreases with silodosin than naftopidil at 1 month in the total IPSS. The mean changes in the PVR at 6 months were +14.6, +23.7, and +5.7 mL in the naftopidil, tamsulosin, and silodosin groups, respectively; silodosin showed a significant improvement in the PVR at 6 months vs. tamsulosin. With respect to the secondary efficacy variables, the mean changes in the IPSS voiding score at 1 month in the naftopidil, tamsulosin, and silodosin groups were +6.5, +5.6, and +4.5, respectively; silodosin showed a significant improvement in the IPSS voiding score at 1 month vs. naftopidil. Conclusions: Silodosin has a greater impact on improving PI-induced lower urinary tract symptoms than the other two agents.« less

A digital spatial predictive model of land-use change using economic and environmental inputs and a statistical tree classification approach: Thailand, 1970s--1990s

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Felkner, John Sames

The scale and extent of global land use change is massive, and has potentially powerful effects on the global climate and global atmospheric composition (Turner & Meyer, 1994). Because of this tremendous change and impact, there is an urgent need for quantitative, empirical models of land use change, especially predictive models with an ability to capture the trajectories of change (Agarwal, Green, Grove, Evans, & Schweik, 2000; Lambin et al., 1999). For this research, a spatial statistical predictive model of land use change was created and run in two provinces of Thailand. The model utilized an extensive spatial database, and used a classification tree approach for explanatory model creation and future land use (Breiman, Friedman, Olshen, & Stone, 1984). Eight input variables were used, and the trees were run on a dependent variable of land use change measured from 1979 to 1989 using classified satellite imagery. The derived tree models were used to create probability of change surfaces, and these were then used to create predicted land cover maps for 1999. These predicted 1999 maps were compared with actual 1999 landcover derived from 1999 Landsat 7 imagery. The primary research hypothesis was that an explanatory model using both economic and environmental input variables would better predict future land use change than would either a model using only economic variables or a model using only environmental. Thus, the eight input variables included four economic and four environmental variables. The results indicated a very slight superiority of the full models to predict future agricultural change and future deforestation, but a slight superiority of the economic models to predict future built change. However, the margins of superiority were too small to be statistically significant. The resulting tree structures were used, however, to derive a series of principles or "rules" governing land use change in both provinces. The model was able to predict future land use, given a series of assumptions, with 90 percent overall accuracies. The model can be used in other developing or developed country locations for future land use prediction, determination of future threatened areas, or to derive "rules" or principles driving land use change.

Breastfeeding Status and Maternal Cardiovascular Variables Across the Postpartum

PubMed Central

Jevitt, Cecilia M.; Sahebzamani, Frances; Beckstead, Jason W.; Keefe, David L.

2013-01-01

Abstract Background There have been recent reports that lactational history is associated with long-term women's health benefits. Most of these studies are epidemiological. If particular cardiometabolic changes that occur during lactation ultimately influence women's health later is unknown. Methods Seventy-one healthy women participated in a prospective postpartum study that provided an opportunity to study anthropometric, endocrine, immune, and behavioral variables across time. Variables studied were heart rate (HR), systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), C-reactive protein, body mass index (BMI), perceived stress, and hormones. A cohort of women without a change in breastfeeding (N=22) or formula feeding (N=23) group membership for 5 months was used for analysis of effects of feeding status. The data were analyzed using factorial repeated measures analysis of variance and analysis of covariance. Results SBP and HR declined across the postpartum and were significantly lower in breastfeeding compared to formula feeding mothers (p<0.05). These differences remained statistically significant when BMI was added to the model. Other covariates of income, stress, marital status, and ethnicity were not significantly associated with these variables over time. DBP was also lower, but the significance was reduced by the addition of BMI as a covariate. Stress also was lower in breastfeeders, but this effect was reduced by the addition of income as a covariate. Conclusions These data suggest that there are important physiological differences in women during months of breastfeeding. These may have roles in influencing or programming later risks for a number of midlife diseases. PMID:23659484

Moment-to-Moment BOLD Signal Variability Reflects Regional Changes in Neural Flexibility across the Lifespan.

PubMed

Nomi, Jason S; Bolt, Taylor S; Ezie, C E Chiemeka; Uddin, Lucina Q; Heller, Aaron S

2017-05-31

Variability of neuronal responses is thought to underlie flexible and optimal brain function. Because previous work investigating BOLD signal variability has been conducted within task-based fMRI contexts on adults and older individuals, very little is currently known regarding regional changes in spontaneous BOLD signal variability in the human brain across the lifespan. The current study used resting-state fMRI data from a large sample of male and female human participants covering a wide age range (6-85 years) across two different fMRI acquisition parameters (TR = 0.645 and 1.4 s). Variability in brain regions including a key node of the salience network (anterior insula) increased linearly across the lifespan across datasets. In contrast, variability in most other large-scale networks decreased linearly over the lifespan. These results demonstrate unique lifespan trajectories of BOLD variability related to specific regions of the brain and add to a growing literature demonstrating the importance of identifying normative trajectories of functional brain maturation. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Although brain signal variability has traditionally been considered a source of unwanted noise, recent work demonstrates that variability in brain signals during task performance is related to brain maturation in old age as well as individual differences in behavioral performance. The current results demonstrate that intrinsic fluctuations in resting-state variability exhibit unique maturation trajectories in specific brain regions and systems, particularly those supporting salience detection. These results have implications for investigations of brain development and aging, as well as interpretations of brain function underlying behavioral changes across the lifespan. Copyright © 2017 the authors 0270-6474/17/375539-10$15.00/0.

Uncertainties in discharge projections in consequence of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liebert, J.; Düthmann, D.; Berg, P.; Feldmann, H.; Ihringer, J.; Kunstmann, H.; Merz, B.; Ott, I.; Schädler, G.; Wagner, S.

2012-04-01

The fourth assessment report of the IPCC summarizes possible effects of the global climate change. For Europe an increasing variability of temperature and precipitation is expected. While the increasing temperature is projected almost uniformly for Europe, for precipitation the models indicate partly heterogeneous tendencies. In order to maintain current safety-standards in the infrastructure of our various water management systems, the possible future floods discharges are very often a central question. In the planning and operation of water infrastructure systems uncertainties considerations have an important function. In times of climate change the analyses of measured historical gauge data (normally 30 - 80 years) are not sufficient enough, because even significant trends are only valid in the analyzed time period and extrapolations are exceedingly difficult. Therefore combined climate and hydrological modeling for scenario based projections become more and more popular. Regarding that adaptation measures in water infrastructure are in general very time-consuming and cost intensive qualified questions to the variability and uncertainty of model based results are important as well. The CEDIM-Project "Flood hazards in a changing climate" is focusing on both: future changes in flood discharge and assess the uncertainties that are involved in such model based future predictions. In detail the study bases on an ensemble of hydrological model (HM) simulations in 3 representative small to medium sized German river catchments (Ammer, Mulde and Ruhr). The meteorological Input bases on 2 high resolution (7 km) regional climate models (RCM) driven by 2 global climate models (GCM) for the near future (2021 - 2050) following the A1B emission scenario (SRES). Two of the catchments (Ruhr and Mulde) have sub-mountainous and one (Ammer) has alpine character. Besides analyzing the future changes in discharge in the catchments, the describing and potential quantification of the variability of the results, based on the different driving data, regionalization methods, spatial resolutions and model types, is one main goal of the study and should stay in the focus of the poster. The general result is a large variability in the discharge projection. The identified variabilities are in the annual regime mainly attributable to different causes in the used model chain (GCM-RCM-HM). In winter the global climate models (GCM) bring the main uncertainties in the future projection. In summer the main variability refers to the meteorological downscaling to the regional scale (RCM) in combination with the hydrological modeling (HM). But with an appropriate ensemble statistic are despite the large variabilities mean future tendencies detectable. The Ruhr catchment shows tendencies to future higher flood discharges and in the Ammer and Mulde catchments are no significant changes expected.

Body temperature circadian rhythm variability corresponds to left ventricular systolic dysfunction in decompensated cardiomyopathic hamsters.

PubMed

Ahmed, Amany; Gondi, Sreedevi; Cox, Casey; Zheng, Minjuan; Mohammed, Anwarullah; Stupin, Igor V; Wang, Suwei; Vela, Deborah; Brewer, Alan; Elayda, Macarthur A; Buja, L Maximilian; Ward Casscells, S; Wilson, James M

2011-11-01

A declining amplitude of body temperature circadian rhythm (BTCR) predicts decompensation or death in cardiomyopathic hamsters. We tested the hypothesis that changes in BTCR amplitude accompany significant changes in left ventricular (LV) size and function. Using intraperitoneal transmitters, we continuously monitored the temperature of 30 male BIO TO-2 Syrian dilated cardiomyopathic hamsters. Cosinor analysis was used to detect significant changes--defined as changes >1 standard deviation from the baseline amplitude for 3 consecutive days--in BTCR amplitude over each hamster's lifespan. The Student t-test was used to compare BTCR variability and LV size and function (as assessed by 2D echocardiography) between baseline and the time that BTCR amplitude declined. All hamsters received 10 mg/kg furosemide daily. At the time of BTCR amplitude decline, functional parameters had changed significantly (P < .0001) from baseline: ejection fraction (0.31 ± 0.09% vs. 0.52 ± 0.08%), LV end-systolic volume (0.11 ± 0.03 vs. 0.05 ± 0.02 cm(3)), and LV end-diastolic volume (0.16 ± 0.04 vs. 0.10 ± 0.03 cm(3)). In decompensated cardiomyopathic hamsters, a decline in BTCR amplitude was associated with progression of heart failure and cardiac decompensation. Variation in BTCR warrants further investigation because of its potential implications for the diagnosis and treatment of cardiovascular disorders. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Increasing Children's Voluntary Physical Activity Outside of School Hours Through Targeting Social Cognitive Theory Variables.

PubMed

Annesi, James J; Walsh, Stephanie M; Greenwood, Brittney L

2016-10-01

Volume of moderate-to-vigorous physical activity completed during the elementary school day is insufficient, and associated with health risks. Improvements in theory-based psychosocial factors might facilitate increased out-of-school physical activity. A behaviorally based after-school care protocol, Youth Fit 4 Life, was tested for its association with increased voluntary, out-of-school physical activity and improvements in its theory-based psychosocial predictors in 9- to 12-year-olds. Increases over 12 weeks in out-of-school physical activity, and improvements in self-regulation for physical activity, exercise self-efficacy, and mood, were significantly greater in the Youth Fit 4 Life group (n = 88) when contrasted with a typical care control group (n = 57). Changes in the 3 psychosocial variables significantly mediated the group-physical activity change relationship (R(2) = .31, P < .001). Change in self-regulation was a significant independent mediator, and had a reciprocal relationship with change in out-of-school physical activity. In the Youth Fit 4 Life group, occurrence of 300 min/wk of overall physical activity increased from 41% to 71%. Targeting theory-based psychosocial changes within a structured after-school care physical activity program was associated with increases in children's overall time being physically active. After replication, large scale application will be warranted. © The Author(s) 2016.

No Significant Changes in Topsoil Carbon in the Grasslands of Northern China Between the 1980s and 2000s

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, S.; Yang, Y.; Shen, H.; Hu, H.; Zhao, X.; Li, H.; Liu, T.; Fang, J.

2017-12-01

The grasslands of northern China store a large amount of soil organic carbon (SOC), and the small changes in SOC stock could significantly affect the regional C cycle. However, recent estimates of SOC changes in this region are highly controversial. In this study, we examined and mapped the changes in the SOC density (SOCD) in the upper 30 cm of the grasslands of northern China between the 1980s and 2000s, using an improved approach that integrates field-based measurements into machine learning algorithms (artificial neural network and random forest). The random forest-generated SOCD averaged 5.55 kg C m-2 in the 1980s and 5.53 kg C m-2 in the 2000s. The change ranged between -0.17 and 0.22 kg C m-2 at the 95% confidence level, suggesting that the overall SOCD did not change significantly during the study period. However, the change in SOCD exhibited large regional variability. The topsoil of the Inner Mongolian grasslands experienced a significant C loss (4.86 vs. 4.33 kg C m-2), whereas that of the Xinjiang grasslands exhibited an accumulation of C (5.55 vs. 6.46 kg C m-2). In addition, the topsoil C in the Tibetan alpine grasslands remained relatively stable (6.12 vs. 6.06 kg C m-2). A comparison of different grassland types indicated that SOCD exhibited significant decreases in typical steppe, whereas showed increases in mountain meadow, and were stable in the remaining grasslands (alpine meadow, alpine steppe, mountain steppe and desert steppe). Climate variables were shown to be the main determines of the change of SOCD. Increases in precipitation could lead to SOC increase in temperate grasslands and SOC loss in alpine grasslands, while climate warming is likely to cause SOC loss in temperate grasslands. Overall, our study shows that northern grasslands in China remained a neutral SOC sink between the 1980s and 2000s.

Heart rate variability in prediction of individual adaptation to endurance training in recreational endurance runners.

PubMed

Vesterinen, V; Häkkinen, K; Hynynen, E; Mikkola, J; Hokka, L; Nummela, A

2013-03-01

The aim of this study was to investigate whether nocturnal heart rate variability (HRV) can be used to predict changes in endurance performance during 28 weeks of endurance training. The training was divided into 14 weeks of basic training (BTP) and 14 weeks of intensive training periods (ITP). Endurance performance characteristics, nocturnal HRV, and serum hormone concentrations were measured before and after both training periods in 28 recreational endurance runners. During the study peak treadmill running speed (Vpeak ) improved by 7.5 ± 4.5%. No changes were observed in HRV indices after BTP, but after ITP, these indices increased significantly (HFP: 1.9%, P=0.026; TP: 1.7%, P=0.007). Significant correlations were observed between the change of Vpeak and HRV indices (TP: r=0.75, P<0.001; HFP: r=0.71, P<0.001; LFP: r=0.69, P=0.01) at baseline during ITP. In order to lead to significant changes in HRV among recreational endurance runners, it seems that moderate- and high-intensity training are needed. This study showed that recreational endurance runners with a high HRV at baseline improved their endurance running performance after ITP more than runners with low baseline HRV. © 2011 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

Small-scale variability in peatland pore-water biogeochemistry, Hudson Bay Lowland, Canada.

PubMed

Ulanowski, T A; Branfireun, B A

2013-06-01

The Hudson Bay Lowland (HBL) of northern Ontario, Manitoba and Quebec, Canada is the second largest contiguous peatland complex in the world, currently containing more than half of Canada's soil carbon. Recent concerns about the ecohydrological impacts to these large northern peatlands resulting from climate change and resource extraction have catalyzed a resurgence in scientific research into this ecologically important region. However, the sheer size, heterogeneity and elaborate landscape arrangements of this ecosystem raise important questions concerning representative sampling of environmental media for chemical or physical characterization. To begin to quantify such variability, this study assessed the small-scale spatial (1m) and short temporal (21 day) variability of surface pore-water biogeochemistry (pH, dissolved organic carbon, and major ions) in a Sphagnum spp.-dominated, ombrotrophic raised bog, and a Carex spp.-dominated intermediate fen in the HBL. In general, pore-water pH and concentrations of dissolved solutes were similar to previously reported literature values from this region. However, systematic sampling revealed consistent statistically significant differences in pore-water chemistries between the bog and fen peatland types, and large within-site spatiotemporal variability. We found that microtopography in the bog was associated with consistent differences in most biogeochemical variables. Temporal changes in dissolved solute chemistry, particularly base cations (Na(+), Ca(2+) and Mg(2+)), were statistically significant in the intermediate fen, likely a result of a dynamic connection between surficial waters and mineral-rich deep groundwater. In both the bog and fen, concentrations of SO4(2-) showed considerable spatial variability, and a significant decrease in concentrations over the study period. The observed variability in peatland pore-water biogeochemistry over such small spatial and temporal scales suggests that under-sampling in northern peatland environments could lead to erroneous conclusions concerning the abundance and distribution of natural elements and pollutants alike. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Trajectories of the relationships of physical activity with body composition changes in older men: the MrOS study.

PubMed

Laddu, Deepika R; Cawthon, Peggy M; Parimi, Neeta; Hoffman, Andrew R; Orwoll, Eric; Miljkovic, Iva; Stefanick, Marcia L

2017-06-05

Excess adiposity gains and significant lean mass loss may be risk factors for chronic disease in old age. Long-term patterns of change in physical activity (PA) and their influence on body composition decline during aging has not been characterized. We evaluated the interrelationships of PA and body composition at the outset and over longitudinal follow-up to changes in older men. Self-reported PA by the Physical Activity Scale for the Elderly (PASE), clinic body weight, and whole-body lean mass (LM) and fat mass, by dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA), were assessed in 5964 community-dwelling men aged ≥65 years at baseline (2000-2002) and at two subsequent clinic visits up until March 2009 (an average 4.6 and 6.9 years later). Group-based trajectory modeling (GBTM) identified patterns of change in PA and body composition variables. Relationships of PA and body composition changes were then assessed. GBTM identified three discrete trajectory patterns, all with declining PA, associated primarily with initial PA levelshigh-activity (7.2% of men), moderate-activity (50.0%), and low-activity (42.8%). In separate models, GBTM identified eight discrete total weight change groups, five fat mass change groups, and six LM change groups. Joint trajectory modeling by PA and body composition group illustrated significant declines in total weight and LM, whereas fat mass levels were relatively unchanged among high-activity and low-activity-declining groups, and significantly increased in the moderate-activity-declining group. Although patterns of change in PA and body composition were identified, groups were primarily differentiated by initial PA or body composition rather than by distinct trajectories of change in these variables.

Academic problems in children with seizures: relationships with neuropsychological functioning and family variables during the 3 years after onset.

PubMed

Dunn, David W; Johnson, C S; Perkins, S M; Fastenau, P S; Byars, A W; deGrauw, T J; Austin, J K

2010-11-01

Children with long-standing epilepsy have a significantly increased risk of academic underachievement compared with healthy controls. We prospectively followed children from seizure onset to assess the relationship between change in neuropsychological functioning and change in academic achievement and to explore the risk and protective moderating effects of demographic, seizure, and family variables. As part of a larger study, neuropsychological and academic data were collected at both baseline and 36 months for 219 children 6-14 years of age with seizures. Prior factor analysis of results from a battery of well-standardized neuropsychological tests yielded four factors: language, processing speed, attention/executive/construction, and verbal memory/learning. Academic achievement was measured with the Woodcock-Johnson Revised Achievement Test Battery. Correlation coefficients and linear mixed models were used for analysis. The reading and math scores of children with seizures and siblings did not differ at baseline, but children with seizures had lower scores than siblings at 36 months. Writing scores were significantly lower for affected children than siblings at both times. Among children with seizures, there were positive correlations between neuropsychological functioning and academic achievement at baseline and 36 months. Changes in language and in verbal memory/learning were positively correlated with change in reading achievement (r = 0.25 and r = 0.17, respectively). Age at onset moderated the association between change in neuropsychological functioning and change in reading and writing achievement (P ≤ 0.006), with stronger relationships among younger children (β = 0.25-0.44). The association between change in language and change in writing achievement was moderated by caregiver anxiety (P = 0.04; stronger for more anxious parents, β = 0.40), and the association between change in processing speed and change in math achievement was moderated by etiology (P = 0.02; stronger for symptomatic/cryptogenic vs idiopathic, β = 0.29). Gender and other family variables did not have significant moderating effects. Changes in neuropsychological function were associated with changes in academic achievement following onset of seizures, with risk factors being younger age at onset, lower caregiver education, high parental anxiety, and symptomatic/cryptogenic etiology. Academic performance should be closely monitored in children with early-onset seizures. Copyright © 2010. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Effects of Southern Hemisphere Wind Changes on the Meridional Overturning Circulation in Ocean Models.

PubMed

Gent, Peter R

2016-01-01

Observations show that the Southern Hemisphere zonal wind stress maximum has increased significantly over the past 30 years. Eddy-resolving ocean models show that the resulting increase in the Southern Ocean mean flow meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is partially compensated by an increase in the eddy MOC. This effect can be reproduced in the non-eddy-resolving ocean component of a climate model, providing the eddy parameterization coefficient is variable and not a constant. If the coefficient is a constant, then the Southern Ocean mean MOC change is balanced by an unrealistically large change in the Atlantic Ocean MOC. Southern Ocean eddy compensation means that Southern Hemisphere winds cannot be the dominant mechanism driving midlatitude North Atlantic MOC variability.

Variability of methacholine bronchoprovocation and the effect of inhaled corticosteroids in mild asthma

PubMed Central

Sumino, Kaharu; Sugar, Elizabeth A.; Irvin, Charles G.; Kaminsky, David A.; Shade, Dave; Wei, Christine Y.; Holbrook, Janet T.; Wise, Robert A.; Castro, Mario

2014-01-01

Background The methacholine challenge test quantifies airway hyper-responsiveness, which is measured by the provocative concentration of methacholine causing a 20% decrease in forced expiration volume in 1 second (PC20). The dose–response effect of inhaled corticosteroids (ICS) on PC20 has been inconsistent and within-patient variability of PC20 is not well established. Objectives To determine the effect of high- vs low-dose ICS on PC20 and within-patient variability in those with repeated measurements of PC20. Methods A randomized, double-masked, crossover trial was conducted in patients with asthma on controller medications with PC20 of 8 mg/mL or lower (n = 64) to evaluate the effect of high-dose (1,000 μg/d) vs low-dose (250 μg/d) fluticasone for 4 weeks on PC20. In addition, the variability of PC20 was assessed in participants who underwent 2 or 3 PC20 measurements on the same dose of ICS (n = 27) over a 4-week interval. Results Because there was a significant period effect, dose comparison of the change in PC20 was assessed in the first treatment period. There was no significant difference in the change in PC20 for high- vs low-dose ICS (39% vs 30% increase, respectively; P = .87). The within- and between-participant variances for log PC20 were 0.84 and 0.96, respectively, with an intra-class correlation of 0.53, and 37% of participants had more than 2 doubling dose changes in PC20 in those with repeated measurements. Conclusion The effect of ICS on PC20 is not dose dependent at fluticasone levels of 250 and 1,000 μg/d. Interpersonal variability for PC20 is large. A lack of precise measurements should be taken into account when interpreting any change in PC20. PMID:24507830

Analysing streamflow variability and water allocation for sustainable management of water resources in the semi-arid Karkheh river basin, Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masih, Ilyas; Ahmad, Mobin-ud-Din; Uhlenbrook, Stefan; Turral, Hugh; Karimi, Poolad

This study provides a comprehensive spatio-temporal assessment of the surface water resources of the semi-arid Karkheh basin, Iran, and consequently enables decision makers to work towards a sustainable water development in that region. The analysis is based on the examination of statistical parameters, flow duration characteristics, base flow separation and trend analysis for which data of seven key gauging stations were used for the period of 1961-2001. Additionally, basin level water accounting was carried out for the water year 1993-94. The study shows that observed daily, monthly and annual streamflows are highly variable in space and time within the basin. The streamflows have not been changed significantly at annual scale, but few months have shown significant trends, most notably a decline during May and June and an increase during December and March. The major causes were related to changes in climate, land use and reservoir operations. The study concludes that the water allocations to different sectors were lower than the totally available resources during the study period. However, looking at the high variability of streamflows, changes in climate and land use and ongoing water resources development planning, it will be extremely difficult to meet the demands of all sectors in the future, particularly during dry years.

Predictive factors of insulin resistance resolution with adjustable gastric band surgery.

PubMed

Colsa Gutiérrez, Pablo; Kharazmi Taghavi, Mahgol; Sosa Medina, Rocío; Gutiérrez Cabezas, José Manuel; Ovejero Gómez, Víctor Jacinto; Ruiz, José Luis; Ingelmo Setién, Alfredo

2015-03-01

The aim of the study was to evaluate preoperative factors associated with remission of diabetes and weight loss after laparoscopic gastric band surgery. A retrospective cohort of 95 patients who had an adjustable gastric band placed were included. A preliminary descriptive study of prognostic factors was performed using the logistic regression model with SPSS 17.0. The independent variables were age, sex, body mass index (BMI), diabetes status and degree of obesity; dependent variables were the proportion of weight loss, change in diabetes status score and percent changes in fasting sugar and glycosylated hemoglobin. The variables that were significantly associated with the percentage of changes in fasting blood sugar and glycated hemoglobin were: the degree of obesity in the first year; preoperative and diabetes status respectively. The analysis of the need for antidiabetic treatment using the modified diabetes status score showed preoperative BMI, age and gender as significant predictors. In patients undergoing gastric band surgery, weight loss is the fundamental mechanism by which insulin sensitivity increases. This improvement in glucose metabolism is influenced by factors such as sex, age, insulin treatment, duration of diabetes and degree of preoperative obesity. Copyright © 2014 AEC. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Smallholder Farmers' Livelihood Security Options amidst Climate Variability and Change in Rural Ghana

PubMed Central

Appiah, Divine O.; Pokuaa-Siaw, Lawrencia; Asante, Felix

2017-01-01

Farming as a livelihood activity in the Bosomtwe District is threatened by climate change. This paper ascertained the alternative livelihood options of smallholder farmers against climate variability and change in the Bosomtwe District. Using a cross-sectional survey, 152 smallholder farmers were sampled from 12 communities using a multistage sampling procedure. The quantitative data collected were subjected to binary logistic regression analysis, contingency tables, frequencies, and Nagelkerke tests of association, embedded in the statistical package for social sciences (SPSS) v.17. The results indicate that farmers are resorting to alternative livelihood activities that are less capital intensive and require less skill in order to secure income and household food supply. Significant determinants of farmers' alternative livelihood are age, household size, and household food supply, which were significant at p < .030, p < .019, and p < .012, respectively. At a 95% confidence interval (CI), these variables had lower to upper CIs for each of the EXP (B), respectively, at CI = 1.134–12.524, CI = 1.359–30.224, and CI = 1.781–104.561, respectively. The paper recommends that government institutes policies that will create opportunities and draw on various local/grassroots opportunities and resources to expand farmers' asset base for sustainable livelihood strategies. PMID:29348969

Regular consumption of a flavanol-rich chocolate can improve oxidant stress in young soccer players.

PubMed

Fraga, Cesar G; Actis-Goretta, Lucas; Ottaviani, Javier I; Carrasquedo, Fernando; Lotito, Silvina B; Lazarus, Sheryl; Schmitz, Harold H; Keen, Carl L

2005-03-01

The consumption of a diet rich in certain flavonoids, including the flavanol sub-class, has been associated with a reduced risk for vascular disease. We evaluated the effects of the regular consumption (14 d) of a flavanol-containing milk chocolate (FCMC) or cocoa butter chocolate (CBC) on variables related to vascular disease risk, oxidative stress and physical activity. Twenty-eight free-living, young (18-20 years old) male soccer players consumed daily 105 g of FCMC (168 mg of flavanols) or CBC (< 5 mg of flavanols), as part of their normal diet. The consumption of FCMC was significantly associated with a decrease in diastolic blood pressure (- 5 mm Hg), mean blood pressure (- 5 mm Hg), plasma cholesterol (-11%), LDL-cholesterol (-15%), malondialdehyde (- 12%), urate (- 11%) and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) activity (- 11%), and an increase in vitamin E/cholesterol (+ 12%). No relevant changes in these variables were associated with CBC consumption. No changes in the plasma levels of (-)-epicatechin were observed following analysis of fasting blood samples. In conclusion, FCMC consumption was associated with changes in several variables often associated with cardiovascular health and oxidant stress. The presence of significant quantities of flavanols in FCMC is likely to have been one of the contributing factors to these results.

A century of variation in the dependence of Greenland iceberg calving on ice sheet surface mass balance and regional climate change.

PubMed

Bigg, G R; Wei, H L; Wilton, D J; Zhao, Y; Billings, S A; Hanna, E; Kadirkamanathan, V

2014-06-08

Iceberg calving is a major component of the total mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS). A century-long record of Greenland icebergs comes from the International Ice Patrol's record of icebergs (I48N) passing latitude 48° N, off Newfoundland. I48N exhibits strong interannual variability, with a significant increase in amplitude over recent decades. In this study, we show, through a combination of nonlinear system identification and coupled ocean-iceberg modelling, that I48N's variability is predominantly caused by fluctuation in GrIS calving discharge rather than open ocean iceberg melting. We also demonstrate that the episodic variation in iceberg discharge is strongly linked to a nonlinear combination of recent changes in the surface mass balance (SMB) of the GrIS and regional atmospheric and oceanic climate variability, on the scale of the previous 1-3 years, with the dominant causal mechanism shifting between glaciological (SMB) and climatic (ocean temperature) over time. We suggest that this is a change in whether glacial run-off or under-ice melting is dominant, respectively. We also suggest that GrIS calving discharge is episodic on at least a regional scale and has recently been increasing significantly, largely as a result of west Greenland sources.

Environmental factors associated with long-term changes in chlorophyll concentration in the Sacramento-San Joaquin delta and Suisun Bay, California

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lehman, P.W.

Long-term changes in chlorophyll concentration were predicted from environmental variables using Box-Jenkins transfer function models for the Sacramento and San Joaquin rivers and Suisun Bay. The indication that oceanic phytoplankton biomass for the California regions is associated with climatic phenomena produced by El Nino and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was one of several factors used to standardize the dataset. Data used for the analyses were collected continuously on a semimonthly or monthly basis over the 17-yr period between 1971 and 1987. Groups of highly correlated environmental variables were summarized along three environmental axes using principal component analysis. The first environmentalmore » axis summarized river flow and specific conductance. The second environmental axis summarized water transparency and the third environmental axis summarized air and water temperature. Chlorophyll concentration was significantly cross-correlated with environmental axes and individual environmental variables. Transfer function models developed to describe changes in chlorophyll concentration over time were characterized by lag responses and described between 41% and 51% of the data variation. Significant cross-correlations between environmental axes and the California climate index (CA SLP) were used to develop a conceptual model of the link between regional climate and estuarine production. 50 refs., 5 figs.« less

Interannual abundance changes of gelatinous carnivore zooplankton unveil climate-driven hydrographic variations in the Iberian Peninsula, Portugal.

PubMed

D'Ambrosio, Mariaelena; Molinero, Juan C; Azeiteiro, Ulisses M; Pardal, Miguel A; Primo, Ana L; Nyitrai, Daniel; Marques, Sónia C

2016-09-01

The persistent massive blooms of gelatinous zooplankton recorded during recent decades may be indicative of marine ecosystem changes. In this study, we investigated the potential influence of the North Atlantic climate (NAO) variability on decadal abundance changes of gelatinous carnivore zooplankton in the Mondego estuary, Portugal, over the period 2003-2013. During the 11-year study, the community of gelatinous carnivores encompassed a larger diversity of hydromedusae than siphonophores; the former dominated by Obelia spp., Lizzia blondina, Clythia hemisphaerica, Liriope tetraphylla and Solmaris corona, while the latter dominated by Muggiaea atlantica. Gelatinous carnivore zooplankton displayed marked interannual variability and mounting species richness over the period examined. Their pattern of abundance shifted towards larger abundances ca. 2007 and significant phenological changes. The latter included a shift in the mean annual pattern (from unimodal to bimodal peak, prior and after 2007 respectively) and an earlier timing of the first annual peak concurrent with enhanced temperatures. These changes were concurrent with the climate-driven environmental variability mainly controlled by the NAO, which displayed larger variance after 2007 along with an enhanced upwelling activity. Structural equation modelling allowed depicting cascading effects derived from the NAO influence on regional climate and upwelling variability further shaping water temperature. Such cascading effect percolated the structure and dynamics of the community of gelatinous carnivore zooplankton in the Mondego estuary. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Intersubject variability of near-infrared spectroscopy signals during sensorimotor cortex activation.

PubMed

Sato, Hiroki; Fuchino, Yutaka; Kiguchi, Masashi; Katura, Takusige; Maki, Atsushi; Yoro, Takeshi; Koizumi, Hideaki

2005-01-01

We investigate the intersubject signal variability of near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS), which is commonly used for noninvasive measurement of the product of the optical path length and the concentration change in oxygenated hemoglobin (DeltaC'oxy) and deoxygenated hemoglobin (DeltaC'deoxy) and their sum (DeltaC'total) related to human cortical activation. We do this by measuring sensorimotor cortex activation in 31 healthy adults using 24-measurement-position near-infrared (NIR) topography. A finger-tapping task is used to activate the sensorimotor cortex, and significant changes in the hemisphere contralateral to the tapping hand are assessed as being due to the activation. Of the possible patterns of signal changes, 90% include a positive DeltaC'oxy, 76% included a negative DeltaC'deoxy, and 73% included a positive DeltaC'total. The DeltaC'deoxy and DeltaC'total are less consistent because of a large intersubject variability in DeltaC'deoxy; in some cases there is a positive DeltaC'deoxy. In the cases with no positive DeltaC'oxy in the contralateral hemisphere, there are cases of other possible changes for either or both hemispheres and no cases of no change in any hemoglobin species in either hemisphere. These results suggest that NIR topography is useful for observing brain activity in most cases, although intersubject signal variability still needs to be resolved.

Polymorphism in the CLOCK gene may influence the effect of fat intake reduction on weight loss.

PubMed

Loria-Kohen, Viviana; Espinosa-Salinas, Isabel; Marcos-Pasero, Helena; Lourenço-Nogueira, Thais; Herranz, Jesús; Molina, Susana; Reglero, Guillermo; Ramirez de Molina, Ana

2016-04-01

The aim of this study was to assess the effect of a weight loss treatment on obesity- associated variables with respect to the CLOCK and FTO genotypes. In all, 179 volunteers (78% female) participated in a 12-week calorie-restriction program; hypocaloric diets of between 5442 and 10048 kJ/d were individually prescribed to all participants. Dietetic, anthropometric, and biochemical data were collected at baseline and at the end of the intervention. When treatment was over, five single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were sought in CLOCK and FTO in all participants who provided consent. Bonferroni-corrected linear regression models were used to examine the influence of interactions of the type genotype × dietetic change on obesity-associated variables. Variation in the CLOCK and FTO genotypes had no significant influence on the change in obesity-associated variables. The interaction genotype × percentage intake of dietary fat had a significant influence on body mass index (BMI; adjusted P = 0.03). Participants carrying CLOCK rs3749474 (TT + CT) showed a positive association between the change in percentage intake of dietary fat and change in BMI (β = 0.044; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.0119-0.0769; P = 0.008), whereas participants homozygous for the wild-type allele (CC) showed a negative, although nonsignificant association (β = -0.032; 95% CI, -0.0694 to 0.036; P = 0.077). The possession of CLOCK rs3749474 may influence the effect of reducing the percentage intake of dietary fat on obesity-associated variables. Participants carrying this SNP might benefit more than others from weight loss treatment involving dietary fat restriction. The treatment of obesity might therefore be customized, depending on the alleles carried. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Changes in temporal variability of precipitation over land due to anthropogenic forcings

DOE PAGES

Konapala, Goutam; Mishra, Ashok; Leung, L. Ruby

2017-02-02

This study investigated the anthropogenic influence on the temporal variability of annual precipitation for the period 1950-2005 as simulated by the CMIP5 models. The temporal variability of both annual precipitation amount (PRCPTOT) and intensity (SDII) was first measured using a metric of statistical dispersion called the Gini coefficient. Comparing simulations driven by both anthropogenic and natural forcings (ALL) with simulations of natural forcings only (NAT), we quantified the anthropogenic contributions to the changes in temporal variability at global, continental and sub-continental scales as a relative difference of the respective Gini coefficients of ALL and NAT. Over the period of 1950-2005,more » our results indicate that anthropogenic forcings have resulted in decreased uniformity (i.e., increase in unevenness or disparity) in annual precipitation amount and intensity at global as well as continental scales. In addition, out of the 21 sub-continental regions considered, 14 (PRCPTOT) and 17 (SDII) regions showed significant anthropogenic influences. The human impacts are generally larger for SDII compared to PRCTOT, indicating that the temporal variability of precipitation intensity is generally more susceptible to anthropogenic influence than precipitation amount. Lastly, the results highlight that anthropogenic activities have changed not only the trends but also the temporal variability of annual precipitation, which underscores the need to develop effective adaptation management practices to address the increased disparity.« less

Assessing conservation relevance of organism-environment relations using predicted changes in response variables

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gutzwiller, Kevin J.; Barrow, Wylie C.; White, Joseph D.; Johnson-Randall, Lori; Cade, Brian S.; Zygo, Lisa M.

2010-01-01

1. Organism–environment models are used widely in conservation. The degree to which they are useful for informing conservation decisions – the conservation relevance of these relations – is important because lack of relevance may lead to misapplication of scarce conservation resources or failure to resolve important conservation dilemmas. Even when models perform well based on model fit and predictive ability, conservation relevance of associations may not be clear without also knowing the magnitude and variability of predicted changes in response variables. 2. We introduce a method for evaluating the conservation relevance of organism–environment relations that employs confidence intervals for predicted changes in response variables. The confidence intervals are compared to a preselected magnitude of change that marks a threshold (trigger) for conservation action. To demonstrate the approach, we used a case study from the Chihuahuan Desert involving relations between avian richness and broad-scale patterns of shrubland. We considered relations for three winters and two spatial extents (1- and 2-km-radius areas) and compared predicted changes in richness to three thresholds (10%, 20% and 30% change). For each threshold, we examined 48 relations. 3. The method identified seven, four and zero conservation-relevant changes in mean richness for the 10%, 20% and 30% thresholds respectively. These changes were associated with major (20%) changes in shrubland cover, mean patch size, the coefficient of variation for patch size, or edge density but not with major changes in shrubland patch density. The relative rarity of conservation-relevant changes indicated that, overall, the relations had little practical value for informing conservation decisions about avian richness. 4. The approach we illustrate is appropriate for various response and predictor variables measured at any temporal or spatial scale. The method is broadly applicable across ecological environments, conservation objectives, types of statistical predictive models and levels of biological organization. By focusing on magnitudes of change that have practical significance, and by using the span of confidence intervals to incorporate uncertainty of predicted changes, the method can be used to help improve the effectiveness of conservation efforts.

Remote Sensing of Terrestrial Snow and Ice for Global Change Studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kelly, Richard; Hall, Dorothy K.

2007-01-01

Snow and ice play a significant role in the Earth's water cycle and are sensitive and informative indicators climate change. Significant changes in terrestrial snow and ice water storage are forecast, and while evidence of large-scale changes is emerging, in situ measurements alone are insufficient to help us understand and explain these changes. Imaging remote sensing systems are capable of successfully observing snow and ice in the cryosphere. This chapter examines how those remote sensing sensors, that now have more than 35 years of observation records, are capable of providing information about snow cover, snow water equivalent, snow melt, ice sheet temperature and ice sheet albedo. While significant progress has been made, especially in the last five years, a better understanding is required of the records of satellite observations of these cryospheric variables.

Decreasing reference evapotranspiration in a warming climate - A case of Changjiang (Yangtze) River catchment during 1970-2000

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, C. Y.; Gong, L. B.; Tong, J.; Chen, D. L.

2006-07-01

This study deals with temporal trends in the Penman-Monteith reference evapotranspiration estimated from standard meteorological observations, observed pan evaporation, and four related meteorological variables during 1970-2000 in the Yangtze River catchment. Relative contributions of the four meteorological variables to changes in the reference evapotranspiration are quantified. The results show that both the reference evapotranspiration and the pan evaporation have significant. decreasing trends in the upper, the middle as well as in the whole Changjiang (Yangtze) River catchment at the 5% significance level, while the air temperature shows a significant increasing trend. The decreasing trend detected in the reference evapotranspiration can be attributed to the significant decreasing trends in the net radiation and the wind speed.

Modeled impact of anthropogenic land cover change on climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Findell, K.L.; Shevliakova, E.; Milly, P.C.D.; Stouffer, R.J.

2007-01-01

Equilibrium experiments with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's climate model are used to investigate the impact of anthropogenic land cover change on climate. Regions of altered land cover include large portions of Europe, India, eastern China, and the eastern United States. Smaller areas of change are present in various tropical regions. This study focuses on the impacts of biophysical changes associated with the land cover change (albedo, root and stomatal properties, roughness length), which is almost exclusively a conversion from forest to grassland in the model; the effects of irrigation or other water management practices and the effects of atmospheric carbon dioxide changes associated with land cover conversion are not included in these experiments. The model suggests that observed land cover changes have little or no impact on globally averaged climatic variables (e.g., 2-m air temperature is 0.008 K warmer in a simulation with 1990 land cover compared to a simulation with potential natural vegetation cover). Differences in the annual mean climatic fields analyzed did not exhibit global field significance. Within some of the regions of land cover change, however, there are relatively large changes of many surface climatic variables. These changes are highly significant locally in the annual mean and in most months of the year in eastern Europe and northern India. They can be explained mainly as direct and indirect consequences of model-prescribed increases in surface albedo, decreases in rooting depth, and changes of stomatal control that accompany deforestation. ?? 2007 American Meteorological Society.

Structure-function covariation with nonfeeding ecological variables influences evolution of feeding specialization in Carnivora

PubMed Central

Tseng, Z. Jack; Flynn, John J.

2018-01-01

Skull shape convergence is pervasive among vertebrates. Although this is frequently inferred to indicate similar functional underpinnings, neither the specific structure-function linkages nor the selective environments in which the supposed functional adaptations arose are commonly identified and tested. We demonstrate that nonfeeding factors relating to sexual maturity and precipitation-related arboreality also can generate structure-function relationships in the skulls of carnivorans (dogs, cats, seals, and relatives) through covariation with masticatory performance. We estimated measures of masticatory performance related to ecological variables that covary with cranial shape in the mammalian order Carnivora, integrating geometric morphometrics and finite element analyses. Even after accounting for phylogenetic autocorrelation, cranial shapes are significantly correlated to both feeding and nonfeeding ecological variables, and covariation with both variable types generated significant masticatory performance gradients. This suggests that mechanisms of obligate shape covariation with nonfeeding variables can produce performance changes resembling those arising from feeding adaptations in Carnivora. PMID:29441363

[Follow-up of resting-state brain function with magnetic resonance imaging in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus].

PubMed

Qi, N; Cui, Y; Liu, J C; Yu, M; Teng, G J

2017-10-24

Objective: To investigate the changes of resting brain function with time in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) by using regional homogeneity (ReHo) with resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (rs-fMRI). Methods: Multidimensional cognitive function tests and rs-fMRI scans were performed in 21 T2DM patients and 12 healthy controls in 2012 and 2015 respectively.The differences in clinical variables and the ReHo values before and after were measured by paired sample t test, and the correlation between the change of ReHo value and the change of clinical variables was measured by Pearson correlation analysis based on voxel. Results: The delayed score (14±6) of the T2DM patients in 2015 was significantly lower than that in 2012 (18±6) ( t =-2.88, P =0.009); while the value of ReHo in the bilateral occipital lobe and right middle frontal gyrus was significantly lower than that in 2012 ( P <0.01, Alphasim correction). And the decreased ReHo value in the left occipital lobe was significantly correlated with the change of complex figure test (CFT) delay score and the trail making test-B (TMT-B)( r =0.52, -0.46, both P <0.05). No significant change in cognitive function tests in the healthy control group was found between the two years, ReHo value in right cuneus decreased significantly ( P <0.01, Alphasim correction), but it increased significantly in superior frontal gyrus ( P <0.01, Alphasim correction) in 2015.No significant correlation between the changes of the ReHo values in the right cuneus and right superior frontal gyrus and the changes of cognitive function scores was found in the healthy controls. Conclusions: The visual memory is significantly declined in T2DM patients within 3 years.The reduced neural activity areas in T2DM patients are in the bilateral occipitai lobes and the right middle frontal lobe. Decreased neural activity in the left occipital area is related to visual impairment, information processing speed and attention drops.

What Role Does Sleep Play in Weight Gain in the First Semester of University?

PubMed Central

Roane, BM; Seifer, R; Sharkey, KM; Van Reen, E; Bond, TLY; Raffray, T; Carskadon, MA

2016-01-01

Objectives We hypothesized that shorter sleep durations and greater variability in sleep patterns are associated with weight gain in the first semester of university. Methods Students (N=132) completed daily sleep diaries for 9-weeks, completed the MEQ (chronotype) and CES-D (depressed mood) at week9, and self-reported weight/height (weeks 1&9). Mean and variability scores were calculated for sleep duration (TST,TSTv), bedtime (BT,BTv), and wake time (WT,WTv). Results An initial hierarchical regression evaluated (block1) sex, ethnicity; (block2) depressed mood, chronotype; (block3) TST; (block4) BT, WT; and (block5; R2change=0.09, p=0.005) TSTv, BTv, WTv with weight change. A sex-by-TSTv interaction was found. A final model showed that ethnicity, TST, TSTv, and BTv accounted for 31% of the variance in weight change for males; TSTv was the most significant contributor (R2 change=0.21, p<0.001). Conclusions Daily variability in sleep duration contributes to males’ weight gain. Further investigation needs to examine sex-specific outcomes for sleep and weight. PMID:25115969

Short-term climate change impacts on Mara basin hydrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demaria, E. M.; Roy, T.; Valdés, J. B.; Lyon, B.; Valdés-Pineda, R.; Serrat-Capdevila, A.; Durcik, M.; Gupta, H.

2017-12-01

The predictability of climate diminishes significantly at shorter time scales (e.g. decadal). Both natural variability as well as sampling variability of climate can obscure or enhance climate change signals in these shorter scales. Therefore, in order to assess the impacts of climate change on basin hydrology, it is important to design climate projections with exhaustive climate scenarios. In this study, we first create seasonal climate scenarios by combining (1) synthetic precipitation projections generated from a Vector Auto-Regressive (VAR) model using the University of East Anglia Climate Research Unit (UEA-CRU) data with (2) seasonal trends calculated from 31 models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP). The seasonal climate projections are then disaggregated to daily level using the Agricultural Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (AgMERRA) data. The daily climate data are then bias-corrected and used as forcings to the land-surface model, Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC), to generate different hydrological projections for the Mara River basin in East Africa, which are then evaluated to study the hydrologic changes in the basin in the next three decades (2020-2050).

Modeling of Rolling Element Bearing Mechanics: Computer Program Updates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ryan, S. G.

1997-01-01

The Rolling Element Bearing Analysis System (REBANS) extends the capability available with traditional quasi-static bearing analysis programs by including the effects of bearing race and support flexibility. This tool was developed under contract for NASA-MSFC. The initial version delivered at the close of the contract contained several errors and exhibited numerous convergence difficulties. The program has been modified in-house at MSFC to correct the errors and greatly improve the convergence. The modifications consist of significant changes in the problem formulation and nonlinear convergence procedures. The original approach utilized sequential convergence for nested loops to achieve final convergence. This approach proved to be seriously deficient in robustness. Convergence was more the exception than the rule. The approach was changed to iterate all variables simultaneously. This approach has the advantage of using knowledge of the effect of each variable on each other variable (via the system Jacobian) when determining the incremental changes. This method has proved to be quite robust in its convergence. This technical memorandum documents the changes required for the original Theoretical Manual and User's Manual due to the new approach.

Meta-Analysis of Land Use / Land Cover Change Factors in the Conterminous US and Prediction of Potential Working Timberlands in the US South from FIA Inventory Plots and NLCD Cover Maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeuck, James A.

This dissertation consists of research projects related to forest land use / land cover (LULC): (1) factors predicting LULC change and (2) methodology to predict particular forest use, or "potential working timberland" (PWT), from current forms of land data. The first project resulted in a published paper, a meta-analysis of 64 econometric models from 47 studies predicting forest land use changes. The response variables, representing some form of forest land change, were organized into four groups: forest conversion to agriculture (F2A), forestland to development (F2D), forestland to non-forested (F2NF) and undeveloped (including forestland) to developed (U2D) land. Over 250 independent econometric variables were identified, from 21 F2A models, 21 F2D models, 12 F2NF models, and 10 U2D models. These variables were organized into a hierarchy of 119 independent variable groups, 15 categories, and 4 econometric drivers suitable for conducting simple vote count statistics. Vote counts were summarized at the independent variable group level and formed into ratios estimating the predictive success of each variable group. Two ratio estimates were developed based on (1) proportion of times independent variables successfully achieved statistical significance (p ≤0.10), and (2) proportion of times independent variables successfully met the original researchers'expectations. In F2D models, popular independent variables such as population, income, and urban proximity often achieved statistical significance. In F2A models, popular independent variables such as forest and agricultural rents and costs, governmental programs, and site quality often achieved statistical significance. In U2D models, successful independent variables included urban rents and costs, zoning issues concerning forestland loss, site quality, urban proximity, population, and income. F2NF models high success variables were found to be agricultural rents, site quality, population, and income. This meta-analysis provides insight into the general success of econometric independent variables for future forest use or cover change research. The second part of this dissertation developed a method for predicting area estimates and spatial distribution of PWT in the US South. This technique determined land use from USFS Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) and land cover from the National Land Cover Database (NLCD). Three dependent variable forms (DV Forms) were derived from the FIA data: DV Form 1, timberland, other; DV Form 2, short timberland, tall timberland, agriculture, other; and DV Form 3, short hardwood (HW) timberland, tall HW timberland, short softwood (SW) timberland, tall SW timberland, agriculture, other. The prediction accuracy of each DV Form was investigated using both random forest model and logistic regression model specifications and data optimization techniques. Model verification employing a "leave-group-out" Monte Carlo simulation determined the selection of a stratified version of the random forest model using one-year NLCD observations with an overall accuracy of 0.53-0.94. The lower accuracy side of the range was when predictions were made from an aggregated NLCD land cover class "grass_shrub". The selected model specification was run using 2011 NLCD and the other predictor variables to produce three levels of timberland prediction and probability maps for the US South. Spatial masks removed areas unlikely to be working forests (protected and urbanized lands) resulting in PWT maps. The area of the resulting maps compared well with USFS area estimates and masked PWT maps and had an 8-11% reduction of the USFS timberland estimate for the US South compared to the DV Form. Change analysis of the 2011 NLCD to PWT showed (1) the majority of the short timberland came from NLCD grass_shrub; (2) the majority of NLCD grass_shrub predicted into tall timberland, and (3) NLCD grass_shrub was more strongly associated with timberland in the Coastal Plain. Resulting map products provide practical analytical tools for those interested in studying the area and distribution of PWT in the US South.

‘Changing Minds’: determining the effectiveness and key ingredients of an educational intervention to enhance healthcare professionals’ intentions to prescribe physical activity to patients with physical disabilities

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Healthcare professionals (HCPs) are vital conduits of leisure-time physical activity (LTPA) information; however, few discuss LTPA with their patients with disabilities. ‘Changing Minds, Changing Lives’ (CMCL) is a nationwide, theory- and evidence-based seminar aimed at increasing LTPA-discussion among HCPs by enhancing their attitudes, subjective norms, perceived behavioural control (PBC), and intentions. The purposes of the current study were to: examine the effectiveness and short- and long-term maintenance of a CMCL seminar on HCPs’ social cognitions to discuss LTPA; and explore key implementation variables that predict changes in HCPs’ social cognitions. Methods Prior-to, as well as immediately, one, and six months following a CMCL seminar, 97 HCPs (Mage ± SD = 36.23 ± 10.42; 69.0% female; 97.9% Caucasian; 38.1% rehabilitation therapists; years in profession = 11.56 ± 9.94) from five Canadian provinces completed questionnaires that assessed the Theory of Planned Behaviour constructs with regard to discussing LTPA with their patients with a physical disability. Key presenter characteristics and intervention delivery components were extracted from presenter demographic questionnaires and seminar checklists, respectively. Separate repeated-measures ANOVAs and post-hoc t-tests evaluated changes in HCPs’ social cognitions. Hierarchical multiple regressions were conducted to predict intentions and to understand which implementation variables may help explain significant changes in social cognitions. Results Significant increases in HCPs’ social cognitions for discussing LTPA were reported from pre- to post-seminar (ps <0.002); however, increases were not maintained at follow-up. PBC emerged as the strongest predictor of participants’ post-CMCL intentions (β = 0.45, p <0.001). Although several implementation characteristics were related to changes in perceptions, the number of seminars the presenter delivered was the only significant negative predictor of post-seminar PBC (β = -0.18, p <0.05). Conclusions Future iterations of the CMCL intervention should include additional strategies to sustain improvements in HCPs’ social cognitions over time. Future CMCL evaluations should measure additional implementation variables so that the key ingredients for ‘Changing Minds’ can continue to be investigated. PMID:24581329

Normal rates of cognitive change in successful aging: the freedom house study.

PubMed

Royall, Donald R; Palmer, Raymond; Chiodo, Laura K; Polk, Marsha J

2005-11-01

We determined the rates of cognitive change associated with twenty individual measures. Participants included 547 noninstitutionalized septuagenarians and octogenarian residents of a comprehensive care retirement community who were studied over three years. Latent growth curves (LGC) of multiple cognitive measures were compared to a LGC model of the rates of change in Activities of Daily Living (ADL) and Instrumental Activities of Daily Living (IADL). All curves were standardized relative to each variable's baseline distribution. Baseline scores were within their expected normal age-specific ranges. Most measures showed significant rates of change over time. There was also significant variability about those rates, suggesting clinical heterogeneity. Many deteriorated over time, as did ADLs and IADLs. However, performance on some measures improved, consistent with learning effects. The rates of change in two measures, the Executive Interview and the Trail Making Test, were closely related to decline in IADLs. These results suggest that age-related cognitive decline is a dynamic longitudinal process affecting multiple cognitive domains. Heterogeneity in the rates of cognitive change may reflect the summed effects of age and comorbid conditions affecting cognition. Some measures may be ill-suited for measuring age-related changes in cognition, either because they are insensitive to change, or hindered by learning effects. Nonverbal measures appear to be particularly well suited for the prediction of age-related functional decline. These observations are relevant to the definition and diagnosis of "dementing" conditions.

Current temporal trends in moth abundance are counter to predicted effects of climate change in an assemblage of subarctic forest moths.

PubMed

Hunter, Mark D; Kozlov, Mikhail V; Itämies, Juhani; Pulliainen, Erkki; Bäck, Jaana; Kyrö, Ella-Maria; Niemelä, Pekka

2014-06-01

Changes in climate are influencing the distribution and abundance of the world's biota, with significant consequences for biological diversity and ecosystem processes. Recent work has raised concern that populations of moths and butterflies (Lepidoptera) may be particularly susceptible to population declines under environmental change. Moreover, effects of climate change may be especially pronounced in high latitude ecosystems. Here, we examine population dynamics in an assemblage of subarctic forest moths in Finnish Lapland to assess current trajectories of population change. Moth counts were made continuously over a period of 32 years using light traps. From 456 species recorded, 80 were sufficiently abundant for detailed analyses of their population dynamics. Climate records indicated rapid increases in temperature and winter precipitation at our study site during the sampling period. However, 90% of moth populations were stable (57%) or increasing (33%) over the same period of study. Nonetheless, current population trends do not appear to reflect positive responses to climate change. Rather, time-series models illustrated that the per capita rates of change of moth species were more frequently associated negatively than positively with climate change variables, even as their populations were increasing. For example, the per capita rates of change of 35% of microlepidoptera were associated negatively with climate change variables. Moth life-history traits were not generally strong predictors of current population change or associations with climate change variables. However, 60% of moth species that fed as larvae on resources other than living vascular plants (e.g. litter, lichen, mosses) were associated negatively with climate change variables in time-series models, suggesting that such species may be particularly vulnerable to climate change. Overall, populations of subarctic forest moths in Finland are performing better than expected, and their populations appear buffered at present from potential deleterious effects of climate change by other ecological forces. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Evaluating climate change impacts on streamflow variability based on a multisite multivariate GCM downscaling method in the Jing River of China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhi; Jin, Jiming

2017-11-01

Projected hydrological variability is important for future resource and hazard management of water supplies because changes in hydrological variability can cause more disasters than changes in the mean state. However, climate change scenarios downscaled from Earth System Models (ESMs) at single sites cannot meet the requirements of distributed hydrologic models for simulating hydrological variability. This study developed multisite multivariate climate change scenarios via three steps: (i) spatial downscaling of ESMs using a transfer function method, (ii) temporal downscaling of ESMs using a single-site weather generator, and (iii) reconstruction of spatiotemporal correlations using a distribution-free shuffle procedure. Multisite precipitation and temperature change scenarios for 2011-2040 were generated from five ESMs under four representative concentration pathways to project changes in streamflow variability using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for the Jing River, China. The correlation reconstruction method performed realistically for intersite and intervariable correlation reproduction and hydrological modeling. The SWAT model was found to be well calibrated with monthly streamflow with a model efficiency coefficient of 0.78. It was projected that the annual mean precipitation would not change, while the mean maximum and minimum temperatures would increase significantly by 1.6 ± 0.3 and 1.3 ± 0.2 °C; the variance ratios of 2011-2040 to 1961-2005 were 1.15 ± 0.13 for precipitation, 1.15 ± 0.14 for mean maximum temperature, and 1.04 ± 0.10 for mean minimum temperature. A warmer climate was predicted for the flood season, while the dry season was projected to become wetter and warmer; the findings indicated that the intra-annual and interannual variations in the future climate would be greater than in the current climate. The total annual streamflow was found to change insignificantly but its variance ratios of 2011-2040 to 1961-2005 increased by 1.25 ± 0.55. Streamflow variability was predicted to become greater over most months on the seasonal scale because of the increased monthly maximum streamflow and decreased monthly minimum streamflow. The increase in streamflow variability was attributed mainly to larger positive contributions from increased precipitation variances rather than negative contributions from increased mean temperatures.

[Changes in cortical power distribution produced by memory consolidation as a function of a typewriting skill].

PubMed

Cunha, Marlo; Bastos, Victor Hugo; Veiga, Heloisa; Cagy, Maurício; McDowell, Kaleb; Furtado, Vernon; Piedade, Roberto; Ribeiro, Pedro

2004-09-01

The present study aimed to investigate alterations in EEG patterns in normal, right-handed individuals, during the process of learning a specific motor skill (typewriting). Recent studies have shown that the cerebral cortex is susceptible to several changes during a learning process and that alterations in the brain's electrical patterns take place as a result of the acquisition of a motor skill and memory consolidation. In this context, subjects' brain electrical activity was analyzed before and after the motor task. EEG data were collected by a Braintech 3000 and analyzed by Neurometrics. For the statistical analysis, the behavioral variables "time" and "number of errors" were assessed by a one-way ANOVA. For the neurophysiological variable "Absolute Power", a paired t-Test was performed for each pair of electrodes CZ-C3/CZ-C4, in the theta and alpha frequency bands. The main results demonstrated a change in performance, through both behavioral variables ("time" and "number of errors"). At the same time, no changes were observed for the neurophysiological variable ("Absolute Power") in the theta band. On the other hand, a significant increase was observed in the alpha band in central areas (CZ-C3/CZ-C4). These results suggest an adaptation of the sensory-motor cortex, as a consequence of the typewriting training.

Changes in In Vivo Knee Loading with a Variable-Stiffness Intervention Shoe Correlate with Changes in the Knee Adduction Moment

PubMed Central

Erhart, Jennifer C.; Dyrby, Chris O.; D'Lima, Darryl D.; Colwell, Clifford W.; Andriacchi, Thomas P.

2010-01-01

External knee adduction moment can be reduced using footwear interventions, but the exact changes in in vivo medial joint loading remain unknown. An instrumented knee replacement was used to assess changes in in vivo medial joint loading in a single patient walking with a variable-stiffness intervention shoe. We hypothesized that during walking with a load modifying variable-stiffness shoe intervention: (1) the first peak knee adduction moment will be reduced compared to a subject's personal shoes; (2) the first peak in vivo medial contact force will be reduced compared to personal shoes; and (3) the reduction in knee adduction moment will be correlated with the reduction in medial contact force. The instrumentation included a motion capture system, force plate, and the instrumented knee prosthesis. The intervention shoe reduced the first peak knee adduction moment (13.3%, p=0.011) and medial compartment joint contact force (22%; p=0.008) compared to the personal shoe. The change in first peak knee adduction moment was significantly correlated with the change in first peak medial contact force (R2=0.67, p=0.007). Thus, for a single subject with a total knee prosthesis the variable-stiffness shoe reduces loading on the affected compartment of the joint. The reductions in the external knee adduction moment are indicative of reductions in in vivo medial compressive force with this intervention. PMID:20973058

Assessing LULC changes over Chilika Lake watershed in Eastern India using Driving Force Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jadav, S.; Syed, T. H.

2017-12-01

Rapid population growth and industrial development has brought about significant changes in Land Use Land Cover (LULC) of many developing countries in the world. This study investigates LULC changes in the Chilika Lake watershed of Eastern India for the period of 1988 to 2016. The methodology involves pre-processing and classification of Landsat satellite images using support vector machine (SVM) supervised classification algorithm. Results reveal that `Cropland', `Emergent Vegetation' and `Settlement' has expanded over the study period by 284.61 km², 106.83 km² and 98.83 km² respectively. Contemporaneously, `Lake Area', `Vegetation' and `Scrub Land' have decreased by 121.62 km², 96.05 km² and 80.29 km² respectively. This study also analyzes five major driving force variables of socio-economic and climatological factors triggering LULC changes through a bivariate logistic regression model. The outcome gives credible relative operating characteristics (ROC) value of 0.76 that indicate goodness fit of logistic regression model. In addition, independent variables like distance to drainage network and average annual rainfall have negative regression coefficient values that represent decreased rate of dependent variable (changed LULC) whereas independent variables (population density, distance to road and distance to railway) have positive regression coefficient indicates increased rate of changed LULC . Results from this study will be crucial for planning and restoration of this vital lake water body that has major implications over the society and environment at large.

Impact of terrorism and political instability on equity premium: Evidence from Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MengYun, Wu; Imran, Muhammad; Zakaria, Muhammad; Linrong, Zhang; Farooq, Muhammad Umer; Muhammad, Shah Khalid

2018-02-01

The study quantifies the impact of terrorism and political instability on firm equity premium in Pakistan using panel data for 306 non-financial firms for the period 2001 to 2014. Other variables included are law & order, government regime change and financial crisis of 2007/08. The estimated results reveal that terrorism has statistically significant negative impact on firm equity premium in Pakistan. This result is robust with alternative equation specifications. The result also remains same when terrorism variable is replaced with external and internal conflict variables. Law & order variable has significant positive effect on firm equity premium, which implies that equity premium increases with the improvement in law & order situation in the country. Equity premium also increases with government stability and when there is democratic system in the country. The result also reveals that global financial crisis of 2007/08 negatively influenced the firm equity premium. The study suggests some policy implications.

Racial composition, unemployment, and crime: dealing with inconsistencies in panel designs.

PubMed

Worrall, John L

2008-09-01

Racial composition and unemployment have appeared as either theoretically-relevant controls or variables of substantive interest in numerous studies of crime. While there is no clear consensus in the literature as to their statistical significance, the lack of consensus has been most apparent in panel analyses with unit fixed effects. One explanation for this is that racial composition and unemployment are fairly invariant, or slow-moving, which leads to collinearity with unit dummies. A number of pertinent studies are reviewed to illustrate how two slow-moving variables, percent black and percent unemployed, have behaved inconsistently. A fixed effects vector decomposition procedure [Plumper, V., Troeger, V. E., 2007. Efficient estimation of time-invariant and rarely changing variables in finite sample panel analyses with unit fixed effects. Political Analysis, 15, 124-139.] is used to illustrate how these variables' coefficients appear positive and significant when the slow-moving process is accounted for.

RELIABILITY CONCERNS IN THE REPEATED COMPUTERIZED ASSESSMENT OF ATTENTION IN CHILDREN

PubMed Central

Zabel, T. Andrew; von Thomsen, Christian; Cole, Carolyn; Martin, Rebecca; Mahone, E. Mark

2010-01-01

Assessment of attentional processes via computerized assessment is frequently used to quantify intra-individual cognitive improvement or decline in response to treatment. However, assessment of intra-individual change is highly dependent on sufficient test reliability. We examined the test–retest reliability of selected variables from one popular computerized continuous performance test (CPT)—i.e., the Conners’ CPT – Second Edition (CPT-II). Participants were 39 healthy children (20 girls) ages 6–18 without intellectual impairment (mean PPVT-III SS = 102.6), LD, or psychiatric disorders (DICA-IV). Test–retest reliability over the 3–8 month interval (mean = 6 months) was acceptable (Intraclass Correlations [ICC] = .82 to .92) on comparison measures (Beery Test of Visual Perception, WISC-IV Block Design, PPVT-III). In contrast, test–retest reliability was only modest for CPT-II raw scores (ICCs ranging from .62 to .82) and T-scores (ICCs ranging from .33 to .65) for variables of interest (Omissions, Commissions, Variability, Hit Reaction Time, and Attentiveness). Using test–retest reliability information published in the CPT-II manual, 90% confidence intervals based on reliable change index (RCI) methodology were constructed to examine the significance of test–retest difference/change scores. Of the participants in this sample of typically developing youth, 30% generated intra-individual changes in T-scores on the Omissions and Attentiveness variables that exceeded the 90% confidence intervals and qualified as “statistically rare” changes in score. These results suggest a considerable degree of normal variability in CPT-II test scores over extended test–retest intervals, and suggest a need for caution when interpreting test score changes in neurologically unstable clinical populations. PMID:19452302

Why and How the Dairy Farmers of India are Vulnerable to the Impacts of Climate Variability and Change?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Radhakrishnan, A.; Gupta, J.

2017-12-01

Climate change and variability has added many atrociousness to India's food security challenges and the relationship between the asset components of farmers and climate change is always complex. In India, dairy farming substantially contributes towards the food security and always plays a supportive role to agriculture from the adversities. This study provides an overview of the socio economic and livelihood vulnerability of small holder dairy farmers of India to climate change and variability in three dimensions — sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity by combining 70 indicators and 12 major components. The livelihood and socio economic vulnerability of dairy farmers to climate change and variability is assessed at taluka level in India through detailed house hold level data of livelihoods of Western Ghats region of India collected by several levels of survey and through Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA) techniques from selected farmers complemented by thirty years of gridded weather data and other secondary data sources. The index score of dairy based livelihoods of Maharashtra was highly negative compared to other states with about 50 percent of farmers having high level of vulnerability with significant tradeoff between milk productivity and health, food, natural disasters-climate variability components. It finds that ensuring food security in the scenario of climate change will be a dreadful challenge and recommends identification of different potential options depending on local contexts at grass root level, the adoption of sustainable agricultural practices, focusing on improving the adaptive capacity component, provision of livelihood security, preparing the extensionists of Krishi Vigyan Kendras (KVKs)- universities to deal with the risks through extensive training programmes, long-term relief measures in the event of natural disasters, workshops on climate science and communication and promoting farmer centric extension system.

Ocean angular momentum signals in a climate model and implications for Earth rotation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ponte, R. M.; Rajamony, J.; Gregory, J. M.

2002-03-01

Estimates of ocean angular momentum (OAM) provide an integrated measure of variability in ocean circulation and mass fields and can be directly related to observed changes in Earth rotation. We use output from a climate model to calculate 240 years of 3-monthly OAM values (two equatorial terms L1 and L2, related to polar motion or wobble, and axial term L3, related to length of day variations) representing the period 1860-2100. Control and forced runs permit the study of the effects of natural and anthropogenically forced climate variability on OAM. All OAM components exhibit a clear annual cycle, with large decadal modulations in amplitude, and also longer period fluctuations, all associated with natural climate variability in the model. Anthropogenically induced signals, inferred from the differences between forced and control runs, include an upward trend in L3, related to inhomogeneous ocean warming and increases in the transport of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, and a significantly weaker seasonal cycle in L2 in the second half of the record, related primarily to changes in seasonal bottom pressure variability in the Southern Ocean and North Pacific. Variability in mass fields is in general more important to OAM signals than changes in circulation at the seasonal and longer periods analyzed. Relation of OAM signals to changes in surface atmospheric forcing are discussed. The important role of the oceans as an excitation source for the annual, Chandler and Markowitz wobbles, is confirmed. Natural climate variability in OAM and related excitation is likely to measurably affect the Earth rotation, but anthropogenically induced effects are comparatively weak.

Evolution of multidecadal variability in the West African monsoon during the last deglaciation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shanahan, T. M.; McKay, N.

2017-12-01

The West African monsoon system is strongly linked to changes in Atlantic variability on multidecadal to millennial timescales. Understanding the nature of these linkages thus provides important insights into the susceptibility of West African precipitation to past and future changes in Atlantic circulation. Here, we use an annually-resolved record of lamination thickness variations from Lake Bosumtwi, Ghana to generate an unprecedented record of changes in the West African monsoon spanning the last deglaciation ( 12.8-24 ka BP) and the latest Holocene (0-2.6 ka BP). Millennial-scale variability in varve thickness is consistent with published data from hydrogen isotopes in leaf waxes, showing a dramatic and sustained shift to drier conditions during HS1, a rapid recovery at the onset of the Bølling-Allerød and a gradual shift towards drier conditions following the end of the African Humid Period. The varve thickness record also indicates the presence of significant multidecadal ( 40- 80 years) West African monsoon variability throughout much of the record, disappearing only during the later portion of HS1 ( 14.8-16 ka BP). Previous studies have linked multidecadal variability in the West African monsoon to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), a low frequency mode of North Atlantic sea surface temperature variability that is hypothesized to be controlled by changes in North Atlantic heat transport via the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Our reconstruction indicates that this mode of multidecadal variability was active not only throughout the late Holocene but during the Last Glacial Maximum and much of the deglaciation, including the first half of HS1. The later result is unexpected in that it suggests that the AMO remained active even as the Atlantic overturning circulation collapsed and the African monsoon weakened during the initial phase of HS1. The decoupling of multidecadal and millennial scale variability suggests either a complex, time-transgressive Atlantic circulation response to changing conditions during HS1 or that the driver of multidecadal variability resides in some process other than the AMOC.

Long-term trends in a Dimictic Lake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robertson, Dale M.; Hsieh, Yi-Fang; Lathrop, Richard C; Wu, Chin H; Magee, Madeline; Hamilton, David P.

2016-01-01

 The one-dimensional hydrodynamic ice model, DYRESM-WQ-I, was modified to simulate ice cover and thermal structure of dimictic Lake Mendota, Wisconsin, USA, over a continuous 104-year period (1911–2014). The model results were then used to examine the drivers of changes in ice cover and water temperature, focusing on the responses to shifts in air temperature, wind speed, and water clarity at multiyear timescales. Observations of the drivers include a change in the trend of warming air temperatures from 0.081 °C per decade before 1981 to 0.334 °C per decade thereafter, as well as a shift in mean wind speed from 4.44 m s−1 before 1994 to 3.74 m s−1 thereafter. Observations show that Lake Mendota has experienced significant changes in ice cover: later ice-on date(9.0 days later per century), earlier ice-off date (12.3 days per century), decreasing ice cover duration (21.3 days per century), while model simulations indicate a change in maximum ice thickness (12.7 cm decrease per century). Model simulations also show changes in the lake thermal regime of earlier stratification onset (12.3 days per century), later fall turnover (14.6 days per century), longer stratification duration (26.8 days per century), and decreasing summer hypolimnetic temperatures (−1.4 °C per century). Correlation analysis of lake variables and driving variables revealed ice cover variables, stratification onset, epilimnetic temperature, and hypolimnetic temperature were most closely correlated with air temperature, whereas freeze-over water temperature, hypolimnetic heating, and fall turnover date were more closely correlated with wind speed. Each lake variable (i.e., ice-on and ice-off dates, ice cover duration, maximum ice thickness, freeze-over water temperature, stratification onset, fall turnover date, stratification duration, epilimnion temperature, hypolimnion temperature, and hypolimnetic heating) was averaged for the three periods (1911–1980, 1981–1993, and 1994–2014) delineated by abrupt changes in air temperature and wind speed. Average summer hypolimnetic temperature and fall turnover date exhibit significant differences between the third period and the first two periods. Changes in ice cover (ice-on and ice-off dates, ice cover duration, and maximum ice thickness) exhibit an abrupt change after 1994, which was related in part to the warm El Niño winter of 1997–1998. Under-ice water temperature, freeze-over water temperature, hypolimnetic temperature, fall turnover date, and stratification duration demonstrate a significant difference in the third period (1994–2014), when air temperature was warmest and wind speeds decreased rather abruptly. The trends in ice cover and water temperature demonstrate responses to both long-term and abrupt changes in meteorological conditions that can be complemented with numerical modeling to better understand how these variables will respond in a future climate.

Short-term variability in body weight predicts long-term weight gain1

PubMed Central

Lowe, Michael R; Feig, Emily H; Winter, Samantha R; Stice, Eric

2015-01-01

Background: Body weight in lower animals and humans is highly stable despite a very large flux in energy intake and expenditure over time. Conversely, the existence of higher-than-average variability in weight may indicate a disruption in the mechanisms responsible for homeostatic weight regulation. Objective: In a sample chosen for weight-gain proneness, we evaluated whether weight variability over a 6-mo period predicted subsequent weight change from 6 to 24 mo. Design: A total of 171 nonobese women were recruited to participate in this longitudinal study in which weight was measured 4 times over 24 mo. The initial 3 weights were used to calculate weight variability with the use of a root mean square error approach to assess fluctuations in weight independent of trajectory. Linear regression analysis was used to examine whether weight variability in the initial 6 mo predicted weight change 18 mo later. Results: Greater weight variability significantly predicted amount of weight gained. This result was unchanged after control for baseline body mass index (BMI) and BMI change from baseline to 6 mo and for measures of disinhibition, restrained eating, and dieting. Conclusions: Elevated weight variability in young women may signal the degradation of body weight regulatory systems. In an obesogenic environment this may eventuate in accelerated weight gain, particularly in those with a genetic susceptibility toward overweight. Future research is needed to evaluate the reliability of weight variability as a predictor of future weight gain and the sources of its predictive effect. The trial on which this study is based is registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT00456131. PMID:26354535

Short-term variability in body weight predicts long-term weight gain.

PubMed

Lowe, Michael R; Feig, Emily H; Winter, Samantha R; Stice, Eric

2015-11-01

Body weight in lower animals and humans is highly stable despite a very large flux in energy intake and expenditure over time. Conversely, the existence of higher-than-average variability in weight may indicate a disruption in the mechanisms responsible for homeostatic weight regulation. In a sample chosen for weight-gain proneness, we evaluated whether weight variability over a 6-mo period predicted subsequent weight change from 6 to 24 mo. A total of 171 nonobese women were recruited to participate in this longitudinal study in which weight was measured 4 times over 24 mo. The initial 3 weights were used to calculate weight variability with the use of a root mean square error approach to assess fluctuations in weight independent of trajectory. Linear regression analysis was used to examine whether weight variability in the initial 6 mo predicted weight change 18 mo later. Greater weight variability significantly predicted amount of weight gained. This result was unchanged after control for baseline body mass index (BMI) and BMI change from baseline to 6 mo and for measures of disinhibition, restrained eating, and dieting. Elevated weight variability in young women may signal the degradation of body weight regulatory systems. In an obesogenic environment this may eventuate in accelerated weight gain, particularly in those with a genetic susceptibility toward overweight. Future research is needed to evaluate the reliability of weight variability as a predictor of future weight gain and the sources of its predictive effect. The trial on which this study is based is registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT00456131. © 2015 American Society for Nutrition.

Climate Change Impact on Rainfall: How will Threaten Wheat Yield?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tafoughalti, K.; El Faleh, E. M.; Moujahid, Y.; Ouargaga, F.

2018-05-01

Climate change has a significant impact on the environmental condition of the agricultural region. Meknes has an agrarian economy and wheat production is of paramount importance. As most arable area are under rainfed system, Meknes is one of the sensitive regions to rainfall variability and consequently to climate change. Therefore, the use of changes in rainfall is vital for detecting the influence of climate system on agricultural productivity. This article identifies rainfall temporal variability and its impact on wheat yields. We used monthly rainfall records for three decades and wheat yields records of fifteen years. Rainfall variability is assessed utilizing the precipitation concentration index and the variation coefficient. The association between wheat yields and cumulative rainfall amounts of different scales was calculated based on a regression model. The analysis shown moderate seasonal and irregular annual rainfall distribution. Yields fluctuated from 210 to 4500 Kg/ha with 52% of coefficient of variation. The correlation results shows that wheat yields are strongly correlated with rainfall of the period January to March. This investigation concluded that climate change is altering wheat yield and it is crucial to adept the necessary adaptation to challenge the risk.

Drought variability in six catchments in the UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwok-Pan, Chun; Onof, Christian; Wheater, Howard

2010-05-01

Drought is fundamentally related to consistent low precipitation levels. Changes in global and regional drought patterns are suggested by numerous recent climate change studies. However, most of the climate change adaptation measures are at a catchment scale, and the development of a framework for studying persistence in precipitation is still at an early stage. Two stochastic approaches for modelling drought severity index (DSI) are proposed to investigate possible changes in droughts in six catchments in the UK. They are the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and the generalised linear model (GLM) approach. Results of ARIMA modelling show that mean sea level pressure and possibly the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index are important climate variables for short term drought forecasts, whereas relative humidity is not a significant climate variable despite its high correlation with the DSI series. By simulating rainfall series, the generalised linear model (GLM) approach can provide the probability density function of the DSI. GLM simulations indicate that the changes in the 10th and 50th quantiles of drought events are more noticeable than in the 90th extreme droughts. The possibility of extending the GLM approach to support risk-based water management is also discussed.

Modelling landscape change in paddy fields using logistic regression and GIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Franjaya, E. E.; Syartinilia; Setiawan, Y.

2018-05-01

Paddy field in karawang district, as an important agricultural land in west java, has been decreased since 1994. From previous study, paddy fields dominantly turned into built area. The changes were almost occured in the middle area of the district where roadways, industries, settlements, and commercial buildings were existed. These were estimated as driving forces. But, we still need to prove it. This study aimed to construct the paddy field probability change model, subsequently the driving forces will be obtained. GIS combined with logistic regression using environmental variables were used as main method in this study. Ten environmental variables were elevation 0–500 m, elevation>500 m, slope<8%, slope>8%, CBD, build up area, river, irrigation, toll and national roadway, and collector and local roadway. The result indicated that four variables were significantly played as driving forces (slope>8%, CBD area, build up area, and collector and local roadway). Paddy field has high, medium, and low probability to change which covered about 27.8%, 7.8%, and 64.4% area in Karawang respectively. Based on landscape ecology, the recommendation that suitable with landscape change is adaptive management.

The variable effects of stress on alcohol use from adolescence to early adulthood.

PubMed

Aseltine, R H; Gore, S L

2000-04-01

Despite evidence of a strong association between stress and level of drinking in adolescent populations, the role of stress in accounting for changes in drinking behavior throughout the adolescent years is unclear. This study uses a linear growth curve analysis to examine the determinants of within-individual changes in drinking frequency and binge drinking across five waves of data from a community sample of adolescents who were followed into young adulthood. Predictors of drinking include: stressful life events, parental and peer social support, and parental and peer relationship problems. Findings indicate significant effects of stressful life events and parental support and conflict on both the frequency and intensity of alcohol use. Although age-related changes in these variables coincide with changes in drinking behavior, they do not account for drinking variability over this period. Results from conditional models demonstrate that the impact of the stress is contingent on age, and that the strong associations between drinking and stress evidenced during the high school years weaken considerably as individuals move into their late teens and early twenties. Discussion centers on the complex motivations for and facilitators of drinking as young people mature and change environments over the adolescent years.

Effect of levofloxacin treatment on semen hyperviscosity in chronic bacterial prostatitis patients.

PubMed

Vicari, L O; Castiglione, R; Salemi, M; Vicari, B O; Mazzarino, M C; Vicari, E

2016-05-01

Changes in seminal fluid viscosity (SFV), reactive oxygen species (ROS) production, cytokines and seminal leucocyte concentration related to microbiological outcome in patients with chronic bacterial prostatitis (CBP) were studied. One hundred and ten infertile patients with CBP (positive sperm culture ≥10(5) colony-forming units [CFU] ml(-1), pathogens or Chlamydia in expressed prostatic secretions) were treated with levofloxacin 500 mg daily for 14 consecutive days per month for 3 months. In case of bacterial prostatitis, two conditions were examined: responders, eradication of 0 to <10(3) CFU ml(-1) (n = 78) and poor responders, >10(3) to <10(5) CFU ml(-1) (n = 32). Compared with poor responders, responders showed a significant increase of sperm progressive motility and a significant decrease in seminal leucocyte count, SFV, liquefaction time, ROS production (in all fractions and conditions), seminal tumour necrosis factor-α and interleukin 6. None of these variables showed significant differences compared with a control group of 37 fertile men. On the other hand, the poor responders showed significant changes in these variables compared with matched pretreatment values. In patients with CBP, antibiotic therapy alone leads to eradication in ≈71%, with improvement of sperm progressive motility, SFV and the framework of prooxidative factors. However, in the remaining ≈29% with poor antibiotic responsiveness, a deterioration of all variables is observed. © 2015 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

High glucose variability is associated with poor neurodevelopmental outcomes in neonatal hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy.

PubMed

Al Shafouri, N; Narvey, M; Srinivasan, G; Vallance, J; Hansen, G

2015-01-01

In neonatal hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy (HIE), hypo- and hyperglycemia have been associated with poor outcomes. However, glucose variability has not been reported in this population. To examine the association between serum glucose variability within the first 24 hours and two-year neurodevelopmental outcomes in neonates cooled for HIE. In this retrospective cohort study, glucose, clinical and demographic data were documented from 23 term newborns treated with whole body therapeutic hypothermia. Severe neurodevelopmental outcomes from planned two-year assessments were defined as the presence of any one of the following: Gross Motor Function Classification System levels 3 to 5, Bayley III Motor Standard Score <70, Bayley III Language Score <70 and Bayley III Cognitive Standard Score <70. The neurodevelopmental outcomes from 8 of 23 patients were considered severe, and this group demonstrated a significant increase of mean absolute glucose (MAG) change (-0.28 to -0.03, 95% CI, p = 0.032). There were no significant differences between outcome groups with regards to number of patients with hyperglycemic means, one or multiple hypo- or hyperglycemic measurement(s). There were also no differences between both groups with mean glucose, although mean glucose standard deviation was approaching significance. Poor neurodevelopmental outcomes in whole body cooled HIE neonates are significantly associated with MAG changes. This information may be relevant for prognostication and potential management strategies.

Disentangling the effects of climate variability and functional change on ecosystem carbon dynamics using semi-empirical modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, J.; van der Linden, L.; Lasslop, G.; Carvalhais, N.; Pilegaard, K.; Beier, C.; Ibrom, A.

2012-04-01

The ecosystem carbon balance is affected by both external climatic forcing (e.g. solar radiation, air temperature and humidity) and internal dynamics in the ecosystem functional properties (e.g. canopy structure, leaf photosynthetic capacity and carbohydrate reserve). In order to understand to what extent and at which temporal scale, climatic variability and functional changes regulated the interannual variation (IAV) in the net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (NEE), data-driven analysis and semi-empirical modelling (Lasslop et al. 2010) were performed based on a 13 year NEE record in a temperate deciduous forest (Pilegaard et al 2011, Wu et al. 2012). We found that the sensitivity of carbon fluxes to climatic variability was significantly higher at shorter than at longer time scales and changed seasonally. This implied that the changing distribution of climate anomalies during the vegetation period could have stronger impacts on future ecosystem carbon balances than changes in average climate. At the annual time scale, approximately 80% of the interannual variability in NEE was attributed to the variation in the model parameters, indicating the observed IAV in the carbon dynamics at the investigated site was dominated by changes in ecosystem functioning. In general this study showed the need for understanding the mechanisms of ecosystem functional change. The method can be applied at other sites to explore ecosystem behavior across different plant functional types and climate gradients. Incorporating ecosystem functional change into process based models will reduce the uncertainties in long-term predictions of ecosystem carbon balances in global climate change projections. Acknowledgements. This work was supported by the EU FP7 project CARBO-Extreme, the DTU Climate Centre and the Danish national project ECOCLIM (Danish Council for Strategic Research).

Assessment of climate change impacts on climate variables using probabilistic ensemble modeling and trend analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Safavi, Hamid R.; Sajjadi, Sayed Mahdi; Raghibi, Vahid

2017-10-01

Water resources in snow-dependent regions have undergone significant changes due to climate change. Snow measurements in these regions have revealed alarming declines in snowfall over the past few years. The Zayandeh-Rud River in central Iran chiefly depends on winter falls as snow for supplying water from wet regions in high Zagrous Mountains to the downstream, (semi-)arid, low-lying lands. In this study, the historical records (baseline: 1971-2000) of climate variables (temperature and precipitation) in the wet region were chosen to construct a probabilistic ensemble model using 15 GCMs in order to forecast future trends and changes while the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) was utilized to project climate variables under two A2 and B1 scenarios to a future period (2015-2044). Since future snow water equivalent (SWE) forecasts by GCMs were not available for the study area, an artificial neural network (ANN) was implemented to build a relationship between climate variables and snow water equivalent for the baseline period to estimate future snowfall amounts. As a last step, homogeneity and trend tests were performed to evaluate the robustness of the data series and changes were examined to detect past and future variations. Results indicate different characteristics of the climate variables at upstream stations. A shift is observed in the type of precipitation from snow to rain as well as in its quantities across the subregions. The key role in these shifts and the subsequent side effects such as water losses is played by temperature.

Systemic oxidative stress associated with the neurological diseases of aging.

PubMed

Serra, Jorge A; Domínguez, Raúl O; Marschoff, Enrique R; Guareschi, Eduardo M; Famulari, Arturo L; Boveris, Alberto

2009-12-01

Markers of oxidative stress were measured in blood samples of 338 subjects (965 observations): Alzheimer's, vascular dementia, diabetes (type II) superimposed to dementias, Parkinson's disease and controls. Patients showed increased thiobarbituric acid reactive substances (+21%; P < 0.05), copper-zinc superoxide dismutase (+64%; P < 0.001) and decreased antioxidant capacity (-28%; P < 0.001); pairs of variables resulted linearly related across groups (P < 0.001). Catalase and glutathione peroxidase, involved in discrimination between diseases, resulted non-significant. When diabetes is superimposed with dementias, changes resulted less marked but significant. Also, superoxide dismutase resulted not linearly correlated with any other variable or age-related (pure Alzheimer's peaks at 70 years, P < 0.001). Systemic oxidative stress was significantly associated (P < 0.001) with all diseases indicating a disbalance in peripheral/adaptive responses to oxidative disorders through different free radical metabolic pathways. While other changes - methionine cycle, insulin correlation - are also associated with dementias, the responses presented here show a simple linear relation between prooxidants and antioxidant defenses.

Pharmacology of saccadic eye movements in man. 1. Effects of the benzodiazepine receptor ligands midazolam and flumazenil.

PubMed

Ball, D M; Glue, P; Wilson, S; Nutt, D J

1991-01-01

A paradigm for assessing benzodiazepine receptor sensitivity was developed using intravenous midazolam in normal volunteers. After administration of incremental doses of midazolam, alterations in saccadic eye movement parameters and psychological self ratings were assessed. Significant changes included dose-dependent slowing of peak velocity, peak acceleration, peak deceleration, reduced saccade acceleration/deceleration ratio and saccade accuracy, and increased sedation self-ratings. Changes in saccade variables and sedation ratings were significantly correlated, and also correlated with plasma midazolam concentrations. No significant changes were seen in saccade latency or anxiety self-ratings. Pharmacological specificity of these changes was demonstrated by their reversal with the benzodiazepine antagonist flumazenil. This challenge paradigm appears to be a sensitive means of assessing benzodiazepine receptor function in man.

Changes in haematology measurements with the Sysmex XT-2000iV during storage of feline blood sampled in EDTA or EDTA plus CTAD.

PubMed

Granat, Fanny; Geffré, Anne; Bourgès-Abella, Nathalie; Braun, Jean-Pierre; Trumel, Catherine

2013-06-01

In veterinary medicine a complete blood cell count (CBC) cannot always be performed within 24 h as usually recommended, particularly for specimens shipped to a reference laboratory. This raises the question of the stability of the variables, especially in ethylenediamine tetra-acetic acid (EDTA) feline blood specimens, known to be prone to in vitro platelet aggregation. Citrate, theophylline, adenosine and dipyridamole (CTAD) has been reported to limit platelet aggregation in feline blood specimens. The aim of this study was to measure the stability of the haematological variables and the platelet aggregation score in EDTA and EDTA plus CTAD (EDCT) feline blood specimens during 48 h of storage at room temperature. Forty-six feline EDTA and EDCT blood specimens were analysed with a Sysmex XT-2000iV analyser, and the platelet count and score of platelet aggregation were estimated immediately and after 24 and 48 h of storage. A significant increase in mean corpuscular volume, haematocrit, reticulocyte and eosinophil counts, and a significant decrease in mean corpuscular haemoglobin concentration and monocyte count were observed. Haemoglobin, mean corpuscular haemoglobin, and red blood cell, white blood cell, neutrophil and lymphocyte counts remained stable. Changes in reticulocyte indexes with time (low fluorescence ratio, medium fluorescence ratio, high fluorescence ratio and immature reticulocyte fraction) were not significant. Changes were generally more pronounced in EDTA than in EDCT. Platelet aggregation decreased markedly in initially highly aggregated EDTA specimens, and increased slightly in initially non- or mildly-aggregated EDTA or EDCT specimens. Platelet counts increased and decreased, or remained stable, respectively. CTAD can reduce storage-induced changes of the haematological variables in feline samples, thus improving the reliability of a CBC and limiting clinical misinterpretations.

Young Faculty Job Perceptions in the Midst of Chinese Higher Education Reform: The Case of Zhejiang University

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Li, Yan; Li, Jessica; Sun, Ye

2013-01-01

Chinese higher education is undergoing fundamental changes to meet the demand of producing high quantity and quality college students. These changes have significantly impacted the work lives of Chinese faculty members. This study investigated Chinese young faculty's job perceptions using four variables: intrinsic motivation, job burnout, job…

Balance disorders caused by running and jumping occurring in young basketball players.

PubMed

Struzik, Artur; Zawadzki, Jerzy; Pietraszewski, Bogdan

2015-01-01

Body balance, as one of the coordination abilities,is a desirable variable for basketball players as regards the necessity of efficient responses in constantly changing situations on a basketball court. The aim of this study was to check whether physical activity in the form of running and jumping influences variables characterizing the process of keeping body balance of a basketball player in the standing position. The research was conducted on 11 young basketball players. The measurements were taken with a Kistler force plate. Apart from commonly registered COP displacements, an additional variable describing the process of keeping body balance by a basketball player was ankle joint stiffness on the basis of which an "Index of Balance-Stiffness" (IB-S) was created. Statistically significant differences were obtained for the maximum COP displacements and ankle joint stiffness between measurements of balance in the standing position before and after the employed movement tasks whereas there were no statistically significant differences for the aforementioned variables describing the process of keeping balance between measurements after running and after jumping. The research results indicate that the employed movement activities brought about significant changes in the process of keeping balance of basketball player in the standing position which, after the run performed, remain on a similar level to the series of jumps being performed. The authors attempted to establish an index based on the stiffness which yields a possibility to perceive each basketball player as an individual person in the process of keeping balance.

Test-Retest Intervisit Variability of Functional and Structural Parameters in X-Linked Retinoschisis.

PubMed

Jeffrey, Brett G; Cukras, Catherine A; Vitale, Susan; Turriff, Amy; Bowles, Kristin; Sieving, Paul A

2014-09-01

To examine the variability of four outcome measures that could be used to address safety and efficacy in therapeutic trials with X-linked juvenile retinoschisis. Seven men with confirmed mutations in the RS1 gene were evaluated over four visits spanning 6 months. Assessments included visual acuity, full-field electroretinograms (ERG), microperimetric macular sensitivity, and retinal thickness measured by optical coherence tomography (OCT). Eyes were separated into Better or Worse Eye groups based on acuity at baseline. Repeatability coefficients were calculated for each parameter and jackknife resampling used to derive 95% confidence intervals (CIs). The threshold for statistically significant change in visual acuity ranged from three to eight letters. For ERG a-wave, an amplitude reduction greater than 56% would be considered significant. For other parameters, variabilities were lower in the Worse Eye group, likely a result of floor effects due to collapse of the schisis pockets and/or retinal atrophy. The criteria for significant change (Better/Worse Eye) for three important parameters were: ERG b/a-wave ratio (0.44/0.23), point wise sensitivity (10.4/7.0 dB), and central retinal thickness (31%/18%). The 95% CI range for visual acuity, ERG, retinal sensitivity, and central retinal thickness relative to baseline are described for this cohort of participants with X-linked juvenile retinoschisis (XLRS). A quantitative understanding of the variability of outcome measures is vital to establishing the safety and efficacy limits for therapeutic trials of XLRS patients.

Neural, electrophysiological and anatomical basis of brain-network variability and its characteristic changes in mental disorders.

PubMed

Zhang, Jie; Cheng, Wei; Liu, Zhaowen; Zhang, Kai; Lei, Xu; Yao, Ye; Becker, Benjamin; Liu, Yicen; Kendrick, Keith M; Lu, Guangming; Feng, Jianfeng

2016-08-01

SEE MATTAR ET AL DOI101093/AWW151 FOR A SCIENTIFIC COMMENTARY ON THIS ARTICLE: Functional brain networks demonstrate significant temporal variability and dynamic reconfiguration even in the resting state. Currently, most studies investigate temporal variability of brain networks at the scale of single (micro) or whole-brain (macro) connectivity. However, the mechanism underlying time-varying properties remains unclear, as the coupling between brain network variability and neural activity is not readily apparent when analysed at either micro or macroscales. We propose an intermediate (meso) scale analysis and characterize temporal variability of the functional architecture associated with a particular region. This yields a topography of variability that reflects the whole-brain and, most importantly, creates an analytical framework to establish the fundamental relationship between variability of regional functional architecture and its neural activity or structural connectivity. We find that temporal variability reflects the dynamical reconfiguration of a brain region into distinct functional modules at different times and may be indicative of brain flexibility and adaptability. Primary and unimodal sensory-motor cortices demonstrate low temporal variability, while transmodal areas, including heteromodal association areas and limbic system, demonstrate the high variability. In particular, regions with highest variability such as hippocampus/parahippocampus, inferior and middle temporal gyrus, olfactory gyrus and caudate are all related to learning, suggesting that the temporal variability may indicate the level of brain adaptability. With simultaneously recorded electroencephalography/functional magnetic resonance imaging and functional magnetic resonance imaging/diffusion tensor imaging data, we also find that variability of regional functional architecture is modulated by local blood oxygen level-dependent activity and α-band oscillation, and is governed by the ratio of intra- to inter-community structural connectivity. Application of the mesoscale variability measure to multicentre datasets of three mental disorders and matched controls involving 1180 subjects reveals that those regions demonstrating extreme, i.e. highest/lowest variability in controls are most liable to change in mental disorders. Specifically, we draw attention to the identification of diametrically opposing patterns of variability changes between schizophrenia and attention deficit hyperactivity disorder/autism. Regions of the default-mode network demonstrate lower variability in patients with schizophrenia, but high variability in patients with autism/attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, compared with respective controls. In contrast, subcortical regions, especially the thalamus, show higher variability in schizophrenia patients, but lower variability in patients with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder. The changes in variability of these regions are also closely related to symptom scores. Our work provides insights into the dynamic organization of the resting brain and how it changes in brain disorders. The nodal variability measure may also be potentially useful as a predictor for learning and neural rehabilitation. © The Author (2016). Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Guarantors of Brain. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Objective assessment of motor fatigue in multiple sclerosis using kinematic gait analysis: a pilot study

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Fatigue is a frequent and serious symptom in patients with Multiple Sclerosis (MS). However, to date there are only few methods for the objective assessment of fatigue. The aim of this study was to develop a method for the objective assessment of motor fatigue using kinematic gait analysis based on treadmill walking and an infrared-guided system. Patients and methods Fourteen patients with clinically definite MS participated in this study. Fatigue was defined according to the Fatigue Scale for Motor and Cognition (FSMC). Patients underwent a physical exertion test involving walking at their pre-determined patient-specific preferred walking speed until they reached complete exhaustion. Gait was recorded using a video camera, a three line-scanning camera system with 11 infrared sensors. Step length, width and height, maximum circumduction with the right and left leg, maximum knee flexion angle of the right and left leg, and trunk sway were measured and compared using paired t-tests (α = 0.005). In addition, variability in these parameters during one-minute intervals was examined. The fatigue index was defined as the number of significant mean and SD changes from the beginning to the end of the exertion test relative to the total number of gait kinematic parameters. Results Clearly, for some patients the mean gait parameters were more affected than the variability of their movements while other patients had smaller differences in mean gait parameters with greater increases in variability. Finally, for other patients gait changes with physical exertion manifested both in changes in mean gait parameters and in altered variability. The variability and fatigue indices correlated significantly with the motoric but not with the cognitive dimension of the FSMC score (R = -0.602 and R = -0.592, respectively; P < 0.026). Conclusions Changes in gait patterns following a physical exertion test in patients with MS suffering from motor fatigue can be measured objectively. These changes in gait patterns can be described using the motor fatigue index and represent an objective measure to assess motor fatigue in MS patients. The results of this study have important implications for the assessments and treatment evaluations of fatigue in MS. PMID:22029427

Effect of vowel context on test-retest nasalance score variability in children with and without cleft palate.

PubMed

Ha, Seunghee; Jung, Seungeun; Koh, Kyung S

2018-06-01

The purpose of this study was to determine whether test-retest nasalance score variability differs between Korean children with and without cleft palate (CP) and vowel context influences variability in nasalance score. Thirty-four 3-to-5-year-old children with and without CP participated in the study. Three 8-syllable speech stimuli devoid of nasal consonants were used for data collection. Each stimulus was loaded with high, low, or mixed vowels, respectively. All participants were asked to repeat the speech stimuli twice after the examiner, and an immediate test-retest nasalance score was assessed with no headgear change. Children with CP exhibited significantly greater absolute difference in nasalance scores than children without CP. Variability in nasalance scores was significantly different for the vowel context, and the high vowel sentence showed a significantly larger difference in nasalance scores than the low vowel sentence. The cumulative frequencies indicated that, for children with CP in the high vowel sentence, only 8 of 17 (47%) repeated nasalance scores were within 5 points. Test-retest nasalance score variability was greater for children with CP than children without CP, and there was greater variability for the high vowel sentence(s) for both groups. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Forest carbon changes of the United States in response to impacts of disturbances, succession, climate variability and atmospheric chemistry

Treesearch

Yude Pan; Richard Birdsey; Jing Chen; kevin McCullough

2008-01-01

U.S. forests and forest products currently offset about 20% of the nation's fossil fuel emissions. Two of the most significant recent scientific findings cast doubt on the sustainability of this offset. First, there are clear indications that the strength of the U.S. forest carbon offset is weakening due to increasing forest age, climate variability, and...

The sensitivity of relative toxicity rankings by the USF/NASA test method to some test variables

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hilado, C. J.; Labossiere, L. A.; Leon, H. A.; Kourtides, D. A.; Parker, J. A.; Hsu, M.-T. S.

1976-01-01

Pyrolysis temperature and the distance between the source and sensor of effluents are two important variables in tests for relative toxicity. Modifications of the USF/NASA toxicity screening test method to increase the upper temperature limit of pyrolysis, reduce the distance between the sample and the test animals, and increase the chamber volume available for animal occupancy, did not significantly alter rankings of relative toxicity of four representative materials. The changes rendered some differences no longer significant, but did not reverse any rankings. The materials studied were cotton, wool, aromatic polyamide, and polybenzimidazole.

N-of-1 study of weight loss maintenance assessing predictors of physical activity, adherence to weight loss plan and weight change.

PubMed

Kwasnicka, Dominika; Dombrowski, Stephan U; White, Martin; Sniehotta, Falko F

2017-06-01

Behaviour change interventions are effective in supporting individuals to achieve clinically significant weight loss, but weight loss maintenance (WLM) is less often attained. This study examined predictive variables associated with WLM. N-of-1 study with daily ecological momentary assessment combined with objective measurement of weight and physical activity, collected with wireless devices (Fitbit™) for six months. Eight previously obese adults who had lost over 5% of their body weight in the past year took part. Data were analysed using time series methods. Predictor variables were based on five theoretical themes: maintenance motives, self-regulation, personal resources, habits, and environmental influences. Dependent variables were: objectively estimated step count and weight, and self-reported WLM plan adherence. For all participants, daily fluctuations in self-reported adherence to their WLM plan were significantly associated with most of the explanatory variables, including maintenance motivation and satisfaction with outcomes, self-regulation, habit, and stable environment. Personal resources were not a consistent predictor of plan adherence. This is the first study to assess theoretical predictions of WLM within individuals. WLM is a dynamic process including the interplay of motivation, self-regulation, habit, resources, and perceptions of environmental context. Individuals maintaining their weight have unique psychological profiles which could be accounted for in interventions.

Matrix-type transdermal films to enhance simvastatin ex vivo skin permeability.

PubMed

El-Say, Khalid M; Ahmed, Osama A A; Aljaeid, Bader M; Zidan, Ahmed S

2017-06-01

This study aimed at employing Plackett-Burman design in screening formulation variables that affect quality of matrix-type simvastatin (SMV) transdermal film. To achieve this goal, 12 formulations were prepared by casting method. The investigated variables were Eudragit RL percentage, polymer mixture percentage, plasticizer type, plasticizer percentage, enhancer type, enhancer percentage and dichloromethane fraction in organic phase. The films were evaluated for physicochemical properties and ex vivo SMV permeation. SMV initial, delayed flux, diffusivity and permeability coefficient were calculated on the delayed flux phase with constraint to minimize the initial flux and approaching steady-state flux. The obtained results revealed flat films with homogeneous distribution of SMV within the films. Thickness values changed from 65 to 180 μm by changing the factors' combinations. Most of the permeation profiles showed sustained release feature with fast permeation phase followed by slow phase. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) showed significant effects (p < 0.05) of the investigated variables on the responses with Prob > F values of 0.0147, 0.0814, 0.0063 and 0.0142 for the initial and delayed fluxes, permeability coefficients and diffusivities, respectively. The findings of screening study showed the importance of the significant variables to be scaled up for full optimization study as a promising alternative drug delivery system.

Nonlinear dynamics of global atmospheric and Earth system processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Saltzman, Barry

1993-01-01

During the past eight years, we have been engaged in a NASA-supported program of research aimed at establishing the connection between satellite signatures of the earth's environmental state and the nonlinear dynamics of the global weather and climate system. Thirty-five publications and four theses have resulted from this work, which included contributions in five main areas of study: (1) cloud and latent heat processes in finite-amplitude baroclinic waves; (2) application of satellite radiation data in global weather analysis; (3) studies of planetary waves and low-frequency weather variability; (4) GCM studies of the atmospheric response to variable boundary conditions measurable from satellites; and (5) dynamics of long-term earth system changes. Significant accomplishments from the three main lines of investigation pursued during the past year are presented and include the following: (1) planetary atmospheric waves and low frequency variability; (2) GCM studies of the atmospheric response to changed boundary conditions; and (3) dynamics of long-term changes in the global earth system.

Effects of Changing Climate During the Snow Ablation Season on Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gutzler, D. S.; Chavarria, S. B.

2017-12-01

Seasonal forecasts of total surface runoff (Q) in snowmelt-dominated watersheds derive most of their prediction skill from the historical relationship between late winter snowpack (SWE) and subsequent snowmelt runoff. Across the western US, however, the relationship between SWE and Q is weakening as temperatures rise. We describe the effects of climate variability and change during the springtime snow ablation season on water supply outlooks (forecasts of Q) for southwestern rivers. As snow melts earlier, the importance of post-snow rainfall increases: interannual variability of spring season precipitation accounts for an increasing fraction of the variability of Q in recent decades. The results indicate that improvements to the skill of S2S forecasts of spring season temperature and precipitation would contribute very significantly to water supply outlooks that are now based largely on observed SWE. We assess this hypothesis using historical data from several snowpack-dominated basins in the American Southwest (Rio Grande, Pecos, and Gila Rivers) which are undergoing rapid climate change.

An energy balance model exploration of the impacts of interactions between surface albedo, cloud cover and water vapor on polar amplification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Södergren, A. Helena; McDonald, Adrian J.; Bodeker, Gregory E.

2017-11-01

We examine the effects of non-linear interactions between surface albedo, water vapor and cloud cover (referred to as climate variables) on amplified warming of the polar regions, using a new energy balance model. Our simulations show that the sum of the contributions to surface temperature changes due to any variable considered in isolation is smaller than the temperature changes from coupled feedback simulations. This non-linearity is strongest when all three climate variables are allowed to interact. Surface albedo appears to be the strongest driver of this non-linear behavior, followed by water vapor and clouds. This is because increases in longwave radiation absorbed by the surface, related to increases in water vapor and clouds, and increases in surface absorbed shortwave radiation caused by a decrease in surface albedo, amplify each other. Furthermore, our results corroborate previous findings that while increases in cloud cover and water vapor, along with the greenhouse effect itself, warm the polar regions, water vapor also significantly warms equatorial regions, which reduces polar amplification. Changes in surface albedo drive large changes in absorption of incoming shortwave radiation, thereby enhancing surface warming. Unlike high latitudes, surface albedo change at low latitudes are more constrained. Interactions between surface albedo, water vapor and clouds drive larger increases in temperatures in the polar regions compared to low latitudes. This is in spite of the fact that, due to a forcing, cloud cover increases at high latitudes and decreases in low latitudes, and that water vapor significantly enhances warming at low latitudes.

Global variation in thermal tolerances and vulnerability of endotherms to climate change

PubMed Central

Khaliq, Imran; Hof, Christian; Prinzinger, Roland; Böhning-Gaese, Katrin; Pfenninger, Markus

2014-01-01

The relationships among species' physiological capacities and the geographical variation of ambient climate are of key importance to understanding the distribution of life on the Earth. Furthermore, predictions of how species will respond to climate change will profit from the explicit consideration of their physiological tolerances. The climatic variability hypothesis, which predicts that climatic tolerances are broader in more variable climates, provides an analytical framework for studying these relationships between physiology and biogeography. However, direct empirical support for the hypothesis is mostly lacking for endotherms, and few studies have tried to integrate physiological data into assessments of species' climatic vulnerability at the global scale. Here, we test the climatic variability hypothesis for endotherms, with a comprehensive dataset on thermal tolerances derived from physiological experiments, and use these data to assess the vulnerability of species to projected climate change. We find the expected relationship between thermal tolerance and ambient climatic variability in birds, but not in mammals—a contrast possibly resulting from different adaptation strategies to ambient climate via behaviour, morphology or physiology. We show that currently most of the species are experiencing ambient temperatures well within their tolerance limits and that in the future many species may be able to tolerate projected temperature increases across significant proportions of their distributions. However, our findings also underline the high vulnerability of tropical regions to changes in temperature and other threats of anthropogenic global changes. Our study demonstrates that a better understanding of the interplay among species' physiology and the geography of climate change will advance assessments of species' vulnerability to climate change. PMID:25009066

Change in anthropometrics and aerobic fitness in Air Force cadets during 3 years of academy studies.

PubMed

Aandstad, Anders; Hageberg, Rune; Saether, Øystein; Nilsen, Rune O

2012-01-01

Favorable anthropometrical status and aerobic fitness levels are emphasized in Norwegian Air Force personnel. However, it is unknown how these variables develop in Air Force cadets. Thus, the main aim of the present study was to examine how anthropometrics and maximal oxygen uptake (VO2(max)) change among Norwegian Air Force cadets during 3 yr of Academy studies. There were 30 male cadets included in the study. Bodyweight, body mass index (BMI), estimated percent body fat, and VO2(max) were measured at entry and at the end of the first year of Academy studies. After the first year, 14 cadets left the Academy, while the remaining cadets were retested at the end of the second and third years. RESULTS63: At entry, mean (95% CI) bodyweight, BMI, percent body fat, and VO2(max) were 78.4 (75.2, 81.6) kg, 24.3 (23.5, 25.1) kg x m(-2), 17.8 (16.3, 19.3)%, and 4.48 (4.25, 4.72) L x min(-1), respectively. Percent body fat decreased significantly by 1.1 (0.2, 2.0) percentage points at the end of the first year, while the other variables did not change during the first year. Between entry and end of third year there was no change in any of the main outcome variables. Anthropometrical status and VO2(max) did not change in Norwegian Air Force cadets between entry and the end of 3 yr of Air Force Academy studies. From the 1- and 3-yr follow-up analysis, the only significant change was a small reduction in estimated percent body fat from entry to the end of the first year.

Teleconnections in the Presence of Climate Change: A Case Study of the Annular Modes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gerber, Edwin; Baldwin, Mark

2010-05-01

Long model integrations of future and past climates present a problem for defining teleconnection patterns through Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) or correlation analysis when trends in the underlying climate begin to dominate the covariance structure. Similar issues may soon appear in observations as the record becomes longer, especially if climate trends accelerate. The Northern and Southern Annular Modes provide a prime example, because the poleward shift of the jet streams strongly projects onto these patterns, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere. Climate forecasts of the 21st century by chemistry climate models provide a case study. Computation of the annular modes in these long data sets with secular trends requires refinement of the standard definition of the annular mode, and a more robust procedure that allows for slowly varying trends is established and verified. The new procedure involves two key changes. First, the global mean geopotential height is removed at each time step before computing anomalies. This is particularly important high in the atmosphere, where seasonal variations in geopotential height become significant, and filters out trends due to changes in the temperature structure of the atmosphere. Pattern definition can be very sensitive near the tropopause, as regions of the atmosphere that used to be more of stratospheric character begin to take on tropospheric characteristics as the tropopause rises. The second change is to define anomalies relative to a slowly evolving seasonal climatology, so that the covariance structure reflects internal variability. Once these changes are accounted for, it is found that the zonal mean variability of the atmosphere stays remarkably constant, despite significant changes in the baseline climate forecast for the rest of the century. This stability of the internal variability makes it possible to relate trends in climate to teleconnections.

Impact of climate change on vector transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi (Chagas, 1909) in North America.

PubMed

Carmona-Castro, O; Moo-Llanes, D A; Ramsey, J M

2018-03-01

Climate change can influence the geographical range of the ecological niche of pathogens by altering biotic interactions with vectors and reservoirs. The distributions of 20 epidemiologically important triatomine species in North America were modelled, comparing the genetic algorithm for rule-set prediction (GARP) and maximum entropy (MaxEnt), with or without topographical variables. Potential shifts in transmission niche for Trypanosoma cruzi (Trypanosomatida: Trypanosomatidae) (Chagas, 1909) were analysed for 2050 and 2070 in Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5. There were no significant quantitative range differences between the GARP and MaxEnt models, but GARP models best represented known distributions for most species [partial-receiver operating characteristic (ROC) > 1]; elevation was an important variable contributing to the ecological niche model (ENM). There was little difference between niche breadth projections for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5; the majority of species shifted significantly in both periods. Those species with the greatest current distribution range are expected to have the greatest shifts. Positional changes in the centroid, although reduced for most species, were associated with latitude. A significant increase or decrease in mean niche elevation is expected principally for Neotropical 1 species. The impact of climate change will be specific to each species, its biogeographical region and its latitude. North American triatomines with the greatest current distribution ranges (Nearctic 2 and Nearctic/Neotropical) will have the greatest future distribution shifts. Significant shifts (increases or decreases) in mean elevation over time are projected principally for the Neotropical species with the broadest current distributions. Changes in the vector exposure threat to the human population were significant for both future periods, with a 1.48% increase for urban populations and a 1.76% increase for rural populations in 2050. © 2017 The Royal Entomological Society.

Phenology Analysis of Forest Vegetation to Environmental Variables during - and Post-Monsoon Seasons in Western Himalayan Region of India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khare, S.; Latifi, H.; Ghosh, K.

2016-06-01

To assess the phenological changes in Moist Deciduous Forest (MDF) of western Himalayan region of India, we carried out NDVI time series analysis from 2013 to 2015 using Landsat 8 OLI data. We used the vegetation index differencing method to calculate the change in NDVI (NDVIchange) during pre and post monsoon seasons and these changes were used to assess the phenological behaviour of MDF by taking the effect of a set of environmental variables into account. To understand the effect of environmental variables on change in phenology, we designed a linear regression analysis with sample-based NDVIchange values as the response variable and elevation aspect, and Land Surface Temperature (LST) as explanatory variables. The Landsat-8 derived phenology transition stages were validated by calculating the phenology variation from Nov 2008 to April 2009 using Landsat-7 which has the same spatial resolution as Landsat-8. The Landsat-7 derived NDVI trajectories were plotted in accordance with MODIS derived phenology stages (from Nov 2008 to April 2009) of MDF. Results indicate that the Landsat -8 derived NDVI trajectories describing the phenology variation of MDF during spring, monsoon autumn and winter seasons agreed closely with Landsat-7 and MODIS derived phenology transition from Nov 2008 to April 2009. Furthermore, statistical analysis showed statistically significant correlations (p < 0.05) amongst the environmental variables and the NDVIchange between full greenness and maximum frequency stage of Onset of Greenness (OG) activity.. The major change in NDVI was observed in medium (600 to 650 m) and maximum (650 to 750 m) elevation areas. The change in LST showed also to be highly influential. The results of this study can be used for large scale monitoring of difficult-to-reach mountainous forests, with additional implications in biodiversity assessment. By means of a sufficient amount of available cloud-free imagery, detailed phenological trends across mountainous forests could be explained.

A New High Resolution Climate Dataset for Climate Change Impacts Assessments in New England

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Komurcu, M.; Huber, M.

2016-12-01

Assessing regional impacts of climate change (such as changes in extreme events, land surface hydrology, water resources, energy, ecosystems and economy) requires much higher resolution climate variables than those available from global model projections. While it is possible to run global models in higher resolution, the high computational cost associated with these simulations prevent their use in such manner. To alleviate this problem, dynamical downscaling offers a method to deliver higher resolution climate variables. As part of an NSF EPSCoR funded interdisciplinary effort to assess climate change impacts on New Hampshire ecosystems, hydrology and economy (the New Hampshire Ecosystems and Society project), we create a unique high-resolution climate dataset for New England. We dynamically downscale global model projections under a high impact emissions scenario using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) with three nested grids of 27, 9 and 3 km horizontal resolution with the highest resolution innermost grid focusing over New England. We prefer dynamical downscaling over other methods such as statistical downscaling because it employs physical equations to progressively simulate climate variables as atmospheric processes interact with surface processes, emissions, radiation, clouds, precipitation and other model components, hence eliminates fix relationships between variables. In addition to simulating mean changes in regional climate, dynamical downscaling also allows for the simulation of climate extremes that significantly alter climate change impacts. We simulate three time slices: 2006-2015, 2040-2060 and 2080-2100. This new high-resolution climate dataset (with more than 200 variables saved in hourly (six hourly) intervals for the highest resolution domain (outer two domains)) along with model input and restart files used in our WRF simulations will be publicly available for use to the broader scientific community to support in-depth climate change impacts assessments for New England. We present results focusing on future changes in New England extreme events.

Determinants of pre-procedural state anxiety and negative affect in first-time colposcopy patients: implications for intervention.

PubMed

Kola, S; Walsh, J C

2012-07-01

Women experience significant emotional distress in relation to further diagnostic evaluation of pre-cancerous cell changes of the cervix. However, less is known about the specific variables that contribute to elevated state anxiety and negative affect prior to colposcopy. The study aims to identify psychosocial factors that predict distress in this patient group, which can help in the development of more sophisticated interventions to reduce psychological distress. Socio-demographic variables, scores for state anxiety, negative affect, trait anxiety, fear of pain, coping style, pain-related expectancy and knowledge were assessed in 164 first-time colposcopy patients immediately before the colposcopy examination. Twenty-six per cent of variance in pre-colposcopy state anxiety was significantly explained by marital status, parity, trait anxiety, fear of minor pain and expectations of discomfort. Twenty-nine per cent of variance in pre-colposcopy negative affect was significantly explained by trait anxiety and expectations of pain. Women who are single, have children, are high trait anxious, and anticipate pain and discomfort appear to be at risk for pre-colposcopy distress. Interventions aimed at reducing pre-colposcopy psychological distress should include situation-specific variables that are amenable to change, and trait anxious women are likely to benefit from interventions to reduce distress. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Climate-driven variability in the occurrence of major floods across North America and Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Whitfield, Paul H.; Burn, Donald H.; Hannaford, Jamie; Renard, Benjamin; Stahl, Kerstin; Fleig, Anne K.; Madsen, Henrik; Mediero, Luis; Korhonen, Johanna; Murphy, Conor; Wilson, Donna

2017-09-01

Concern over the potential impact of anthropogenic climate change on flooding has led to a proliferation of studies examining past flood trends. Many studies have analysed annual-maximum flow trends but few have quantified changes in major (25-100 year return period) floods, i.e. those that have the greatest societal impacts. Existing major-flood studies used a limited number of very large catchments affected to varying degrees by alterations such as reservoirs and urbanisation. In the current study, trends in major-flood occurrence from 1961 to 2010 and from 1931 to 2010 were assessed using a very large dataset (>1200 gauges) of diverse catchments from North America and Europe; only minimally altered catchments were used, to focus on climate-driven changes rather than changes due to catchment alterations. Trend testing of major floods was based on counting the number of exceedances of a given flood threshold within a group of gauges. Evidence for significant trends varied between groups of gauges that were defined by catchment size, location, climate, flood threshold and period of record, indicating that generalizations about flood trends across large domains or a diversity of catchment types are ungrounded. Overall, the number of significant trends in major-flood occurrence across North America and Europe was approximately the number expected due to chance alone. Changes over time in the occurrence of major floods were dominated by multidecadal variability rather than by long-term trends. There were more than three times as many significant relationships between major-flood occurrence and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation than significant long-term trends.

Climate-driven variability in the occurrence of major floods across North America and Europe

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Whitfield, Paul H.; Burn, Donald H.; Hannaford, Jamie; Renard, Benjamin; Stahl, Kerstin; Fleig, Anne K.; Madsen, Henrik; Mediero, Luis; Korhonen, Johanna; Murphy, Conor; Wilson, Donna

2017-01-01

Concern over the potential impact of anthropogenic climate change on flooding has led to a proliferation of studies examining past flood trends. Many studies have analysed annual-maximum flow trends but few have quantified changes in major (25–100 year return period) floods, i.e. those that have the greatest societal impacts. Existing major-flood studies used a limited number of very large catchments affected to varying degrees by alterations such as reservoirs and urbanisation. In the current study, trends in major-flood occurrence from 1961 to 2010 and from 1931 to 2010 were assessed using a very large dataset (>1200 gauges) of diverse catchments from North America and Europe; only minimally altered catchments were used, to focus on climate-driven changes rather than changes due to catchment alterations. Trend testing of major floods was based on counting the number of exceedances of a given flood threshold within a group of gauges. Evidence for significant trends varied between groups of gauges that were defined by catchment size, location, climate, flood threshold and period of record, indicating that generalizations about flood trends across large domains or a diversity of catchment types are ungrounded. Overall, the number of significant trends in major-flood occurrence across North America and Europe was approximately the number expected due to chance alone. Changes over time in the occurrence of major floods were dominated by multidecadal variability rather than by long-term trends. There were more than three times as many significant relationships between major-flood occurrence and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation than significant long-term trends.

Climate variation explains a third of global crop yield variability

PubMed Central

Ray, Deepak K.; Gerber, James S.; MacDonald, Graham K.; West, Paul C.

2015-01-01

Many studies have examined the role of mean climate change in agriculture, but an understanding of the influence of inter-annual climate variations on crop yields in different regions remains elusive. We use detailed crop statistics time series for ~13,500 political units to examine how recent climate variability led to variations in maize, rice, wheat and soybean crop yields worldwide. While some areas show no significant influence of climate variability, in substantial areas of the global breadbaskets, >60% of the yield variability can be explained by climate variability. Globally, climate variability accounts for roughly a third (~32–39%) of the observed yield variability. Our study uniquely illustrates spatial patterns in the relationship between climate variability and crop yield variability, highlighting where variations in temperature, precipitation or their interaction explain yield variability. We discuss key drivers for the observed variations to target further research and policy interventions geared towards buffering future crop production from climate variability. PMID:25609225

Costs and Benefits of Orthographic Inconsistency in Reading: Evidence from a Cross-Linguistic Comparison

PubMed Central

Marinelli, Chiara Valeria; Romani, Cristina; Burani, Cristina; McGowan, Victoria A.; Zoccolotti, Pierluigi

2016-01-01

We compared reading acquisition in English and Italian children up to late primary school analyzing RTs and errors as a function of various psycholinguistic variables and changes due to experience. Our results show that reading becomes progressively more reliant on larger processing units with age, but that this is modulated by consistency of the language. In English, an inconsistent orthography, reliance on larger units occurs earlier on and it is demonstrated by faster RTs, a stronger effect of lexical variables and lack of length effect (by fifth grade). However, not all English children are able to master this mode of processing yielding larger inter-individual variability. In Italian, a consistent orthography, reliance on larger units occurs later and it is less pronounced. This is demonstrated by larger length effects which remain significant even in older children and by larger effects of a global factor (related to speed of orthographic decoding) explaining changes of performance across ages. Our results show the importance of considering not only overall performance, but inter-individual variability and variability between conditions when interpreting cross-linguistic differences. PMID:27355364

Costs and Benefits of Orthographic Inconsistency in Reading: Evidence from a Cross-Linguistic Comparison.

PubMed

Marinelli, Chiara Valeria; Romani, Cristina; Burani, Cristina; McGowan, Victoria A; Zoccolotti, Pierluigi

2016-01-01

We compared reading acquisition in English and Italian children up to late primary school analyzing RTs and errors as a function of various psycholinguistic variables and changes due to experience. Our results show that reading becomes progressively more reliant on larger processing units with age, but that this is modulated by consistency of the language. In English, an inconsistent orthography, reliance on larger units occurs earlier on and it is demonstrated by faster RTs, a stronger effect of lexical variables and lack of length effect (by fifth grade). However, not all English children are able to master this mode of processing yielding larger inter-individual variability. In Italian, a consistent orthography, reliance on larger units occurs later and it is less pronounced. This is demonstrated by larger length effects which remain significant even in older children and by larger effects of a global factor (related to speed of orthographic decoding) explaining changes of performance across ages. Our results show the importance of considering not only overall performance, but inter-individual variability and variability between conditions when interpreting cross-linguistic differences.

Substantial increase in concurrent droughts and heatwaves in the United States

PubMed Central

Mazdiyasni, Omid; AghaKouchak, Amir

2015-01-01

A combination of climate events (e.g., low precipitation and high temperatures) may cause a significant impact on the ecosystem and society, although individual events involved may not be severe extremes themselves. Analyzing historical changes in concurrent climate extremes is critical to preparing for and mitigating the negative effects of climatic change and variability. This study focuses on the changes in concurrences of heatwaves and meteorological droughts from 1960 to 2010. Despite an apparent hiatus in rising temperature and no significant trend in droughts, we show a substantial increase in concurrent droughts and heatwaves across most parts of the United States, and a statistically significant shift in the distribution of concurrent extremes. Although commonly used trend analysis methods do not show any trend in concurrent droughts and heatwaves, a unique statistical approach discussed in this study exhibits a statistically significant change in the distribution of the data. PMID:26324927

Substantial increase in concurrent droughts and heatwaves in the United States.

PubMed

Mazdiyasni, Omid; AghaKouchak, Amir

2015-09-15

A combination of climate events (e.g., low precipitation and high temperatures) may cause a significant impact on the ecosystem and society, although individual events involved may not be severe extremes themselves. Analyzing historical changes in concurrent climate extremes is critical to preparing for and mitigating the negative effects of climatic change and variability. This study focuses on the changes in concurrences of heatwaves and meteorological droughts from 1960 to 2010. Despite an apparent hiatus in rising temperature and no significant trend in droughts, we show a substantial increase in concurrent droughts and heatwaves across most parts of the United States, and a statistically significant shift in the distribution of concurrent extremes. Although commonly used trend analysis methods do not show any trend in concurrent droughts and heatwaves, a unique statistical approach discussed in this study exhibits a statistically significant change in the distribution of the data.

Sexual dimorphism in immune function changes during the annual cycle in house sparrows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pap, Péter László; Czirják, Gábor Árpád; Vágási, Csongor István; Barta, Zoltán; Hasselquist, Dennis

2010-10-01

Difference between sexes in parasitism is a common phenomenon among birds, which may be related to differences between males and females in their investment into immune functions or as a consequence of differential exposure to parasites. Because life-history strategies change sex specifically during the annual cycle, immunological responses of the host aiming to reduce the impact of parasites may be sexually dimorphic. Despite the great complexity of the immune system, studies on immunoecology generally characterise the immune status through a few variables, often overlooking potentially important seasonal and gender effects. However, because of the differences in physiological and defence mechanisms among different arms of the immune system, we expect divergent responses of immune components to environmental seasonality. In male and female house sparrows ( Passer domesticus), we measured the major components of the immune system (innate, acquired, cellular and humoral) during four important life-history stages across the year: (1) mating, (2) breeding, (3) moulting and (4) during the winter capture and also following introduction to captivity in aviary. Different individuals were sampled from the same population during the four life cycle stages. We found that three out of eight immune variables showed a significant life cycle stage × sex interaction. The difference in immune response between the sexes was significant in five immune variables during the mating stage, when females had consistently stronger immune function than males, while variables varied generally non-significantly with sex during the remaining three life cycle stages. Our results show that the immune system is highly variable between life cycle stages and sexes, highlighting the potential fine tuning of the immune system to specific physiological states and environmental conditions.

Kinematic variability, fractal dynamics and local dynamic stability of treadmill walking

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Motorized treadmills are widely used in research or in clinical therapy. Small kinematics, kinetics and energetics changes induced by Treadmill Walking (TW) as compared to Overground Walking (OW) have been reported in literature. The purpose of the present study was to characterize the differences between OW and TW in terms of stride-to-stride variability. Classical (Standard Deviation, SD) and non-linear (fractal dynamics, local dynamic stability) methods were used. In addition, the correlations between the different variability indexes were analyzed. Methods Twenty healthy subjects performed 10 min TW and OW in a random sequence. A triaxial accelerometer recorded trunk accelerations. Kinematic variability was computed as the average SD (MeanSD) of acceleration patterns among standardized strides. Fractal dynamics (scaling exponent α) was assessed by Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) of stride intervals. Short-term and long-term dynamic stability were estimated by computing the maximal Lyapunov exponents of acceleration signals. Results TW did not modify kinematic gait variability as compared to OW (multivariate T2, p = 0.87). Conversely, TW significantly modified fractal dynamics (t-test, p = 0.01), and both short and long term local dynamic stability (T2 p = 0.0002). No relationship was observed between variability indexes with the exception of significant negative correlation between MeanSD and dynamic stability in TW (3 × 6 canonical correlation, r = 0.94). Conclusions Treadmill induced a less correlated pattern in the stride intervals and increased gait stability, but did not modify kinematic variability in healthy subjects. This could be due to changes in perceptual information induced by treadmill walking that would affect locomotor control of the gait and hence specifically alter non-linear dependencies among consecutive strides. Consequently, the type of walking (i.e. treadmill or overground) is important to consider in each protocol design. PMID:21345241

Glaucoma Structural and Functional Progression in American and Korean Cohorts

PubMed Central

Kostanyan, Tigran; Sung, Kyung Rim; Schuman, Joel S.; Ling, Yun; Lucy, Katie A.; Bilonick, Richard A.; Ishikawa, Hiroshi; Kagemann, Larry; Lee, Jin Y.; Wollstein, Gadi

2016-01-01

Objective To compare the rate of glaucoma structural and functional progression in American and Korean cohorts. Design Retrospective longitudinal study. Participants 313 eyes from 189 glaucoma and glaucoma suspects, followed for an average of 38 months. Methods All subjects were examined semiannually with visual field (VF) testing and spectral-domain optical coherence tomography. All subjects had ≥5 reliable visits. Main Outcome Measurements The rates of change of retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) thickness, cup-to-disc (C/D) ratios, and VF mean deviation (MD) were compared between the cohorts. Variables affecting the rate of change for each parameter were determined, including ethnicity, refraction, baseline age and severity, disease subtype (high vs. normal tension glaucoma), clinical diagnosis (glaucoma vs. glaucoma suspect), and the interactions between variables. Results The Korean cohort was predominantly normal tension glaucoma, while the American cohort was high tension glaucoma. Cohorts had similar VF parameters at baseline, but the Korean eyes had significantly thinner mean RNFL and larger cups. Korean glaucoma eyes showed a faster thinning of mean RNFL (mean: −0.71 vs. −0.24μm/year, p<0.01). There was no detectable difference in the rate of change between the glaucoma cohorts for C/D ratios and VF MD and for all parameters in glaucoma suspect eyes. Different combinations of the tested variables significantly impacted the rate of change. Conclusion Ethnicity, baseline severity, disease subtype, and clinical diagnosis should be considered when comparing glaucoma progression studies. PMID:26778345

Long-term rise of the Water Table in the Northeast US: Climate Variability, Land-Use Change, or Angry Beavers?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boutt, D. F.

2011-12-01

The scientific evidence that humans are directly influencing the Earth's natural climate is increasingly compelling. Numerous studies suggest that climate change will lead to changes in the seasonality of surface water availability thereby increasing the need for groundwater development to offset those shortages. Research suggests that the Northeast region of the U.S. is experiencing significant changes to its' natural climate and hydrologic systems. Previous analysis of a long-term regional compilation of the water table response to the last 60 years of climate variability in New England documented a wide range of variability. The investigation evaluated the physical mechanisms, natural variability and response of aquifers in New England using 100 long term groundwater monitoring stations with 20 or more years of data coupled with 67 stream gages, 75 precipitation stations, and 43 temperature stations. Groundwater trends were calculated as normalized anomalies and analyzed with respect to regional compiled precipitation, temperature, and streamflow anomalies to understand the sensitivity of the aquifer systems to change. Interestingly, a trend and regression analysis demonstrate that water level fluctuations are producing statistically significant results with increasing water levels over at least the past thirty years at most (80 out of 100) well sites. In this contribution we investigate the causal mechanisms behind the observed ground water level trends using site-by-site land-use change assessments, cluster analysis, and spatial analysis of beaver populations (a possible proxy for beaver activity). Regionally, average annual precipitation has been slightly increasing since 1900, with 95% of the stations having statistically significant positive trends. Despite this, no correlation is observed between the magnitude of the annual precipitation trends and the magnitude of the groundwater level changes. Land-use change throughout the region has primarily taken place in and around existing urban centers with an overall increase in the percentage of forested land. Individual analysis of well sites in areas with documented land-use change from agriculture and forested land cover to urban land use suggests a positive correlation with increasing water levels. Recently, beaver populations been begun to rise that has led to local increases in wetland areas. These regions also show a high positive correlation to the magnitude of water table rise. Local factors such as land-use change and beaver activity appear to overprint and mask the impact of consistent increases in annual precipitation. Rising water tables have major implications for not only water management but also the agriculture, forestry, fishing, and tourism industries as they all depend on the quantity and quality of water resources of the region.

Adapting to variable prismatic displacement

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Welch, Robert B.; Cohen, Malcolm M.

1989-01-01

In each of two studies, subjects were exposed to a continuously changing prismatic displacement with a mean value of 19 prism diopters (variable displacement) and to a fixed 19-diopter displacement (fixed displacement). In Experiment 1, significant adaptation (post-pre shifts in hand-eye coordination) was found for fixed, but not for variable, displacement. Experiment 2 demonstrated that adaptation was obtained for variable displacement, but it was very fragile and is lost if the measures of adaptation are preceded by even a very brief exposure of the hand to normal or near-normal vision. Contrary to the results of some previous studies, an increase in within-S dispersion was not found of target pointing responses as a result of exposure to variable displacement.

Evaluation of corneal changes after conventional versus accelerated corneal cross-linking: a randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Hashemian, Hesam; Jabbarvand, Mahmoud; Khodaparast, Mehdi; Ameli, Kambiz

2014-12-01

To evaluate the outcome of accelerated and conventional corneal cross-linking (CXL) procedures regarding their effect on morphological and optical properties of the cornea. One hundred fifty-three eyes of 153 patients were evaluated before and during a 15-month follow-up period after CXL (76 eyes in the conventional group and 77 eyes in the accelerated group). Measured variables include corrected distance visual acuity (CDVA), uncorrected distance visual acuity (UDVA), refraction, maximum keratometry, endothelial cell density, anterior and posterior stromal keratocyte density, and subbasal nerve density. All variables were compared between the two study groups. Cylindrical and spherical components of refraction improved significantly during 15 months of follow-up. No difference was observed between the two study groups. UDVA and CDVA improved in the same manner, with no intergroup differences. Endothelial cell density did not change significantly during the follow-up period in either group. K-max increased slightly in the first month of the follow-up, but started to decrease at postoperative visits without any significant difference in the two groups. Anterior stromal keratocyte density and subbasal nerve density decreased significantly in both groups 1 month postoperatively. Both variables had a more significant decrease in the conventional group at all visits before the 1-year visit. At the final 15-month visit, there were no significant differences in any value between the two groups. Accelerated and conventional CXL seem to have a comparable and acceptable effect on keratoconus in the short-term follow-up period. Copyright 2014, SLACK Incorporated.

Mediators effecting moderate-to-vigorous physical activity and inactivity for girls from an intervention program delivered in an organised youth sports setting.

PubMed

Guagliano, Justin M; Lonsdale, Chris; Rosenkranz, Richard R; Parker, Philip D; Agho, Kingsley E; Kolt, Gregory S

2015-11-01

The objective of this study was to test whether coaches' physical activity levels, contextual variables, and coaches' behavioural variables mediated the effect of an intervention on female basketball players' moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) and inactivity in an organised youth sport (OYS) setting. Randomised controlled trial Data for the current study were derived from a two-armed, parallel-group randomised controlled trial. This study ran over the course of a 5-day OYS basketball program in 2 sports centres in Sydney, Australia. A convenience sample of 76 female players and 8 coaches were recruited. Coaches allocated to the intervention condition attended 2 coach education sessions, where strategies to increase MVPA and decrease inactivity were taught. There was a significant effect between changes in coach MVPA and player MVPA (unstandardised regression coefficient [B] = 0.26, 95% CI = 0.14 to 0.38) which coincided with a significant indirect effect (B = 1.80, 95% CI = 0.85 to 2.85). There was also a significant effect between changes in coach inactivity and player inactivity (B = -0.23, 95% CI = -0.14 to -0.31), which coincided with a significant indirect effect (B = -3.20, 95% CI = -0.14 to -0.31). No significant indirect effects were found for lesson context and coaches' behaviours variables. Coaches' MVPA and inactivity significantly mediated the effect of the intervention on player MVPA and inactivity, respectively. Consequently, coaches' physical activity levels appear to be important for influencing their players' physical activity levels. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Investigation of phase-change coatings for variable thermal control of spacecraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kelliher, W. C.; Young, P. R.

1972-01-01

An investigation was conducted to determine the feasibility of producing a spacecraft coating system that could vary the ratio of its solar absorptance to thermal emittance to adjust automatically for changes in the thermal balance of a spacecraft. This study resulted in a new concept called the phase-change effect which uses the change that occurs in the optical properties of many materials during the phase transition from a crystalline solid to an amorphous material. A series of two-component model coatings was developed which, when placed on a highly reflecting substrate, exhibited a sharp decrease in solar absorptance within a narrow temperature range. A variable thermal control coating can have a significant amount of temperature regulation with the phase-change effect. Data are presented on several crystallite-polymer formulations, their physical and optical properties, and associated phase-change temperatures. Aspects pertaining to their use in a space environment and an example of the degree of thermal regulation attainable with these coatings is also given.

Variability and Reliability of Paired-Pulse Depression and Cortical Oscillation Induced by Median Nerve Stimulation.

PubMed

Onishi, Hideaki; Otsuru, Naofumi; Kojima, Sho; Miyaguchi, Shota; Saito, Kei; Inukai, Yasuto; Yamashiro, Koya; Sato, Daisuke; Tamaki, Hiroyuki; Shirozu, Hiroshi; Kameyama, Shigeki

2018-05-08

Paired-pulse depression (PPD) has been widely used to investigate the functional profiles of somatosensory cortical inhibition. However, PPD induced by somatosensory stimulation is variable, and the reasons for between- and within-subject PPD variability remains unclear. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to clarify the factors influencing PPD variability induced by somatosensory stimulation. The study participants were 19 healthy volunteers. First, we investigated the relationship between the PPD ratio of each component (N20m, P35m, and P60m) of the somatosensory magnetic field, and the alpha, beta, and gamma band changes in power [event-related desynchronization (ERD) and event-related synchronization (ERS)] induced by median nerve stimulation. Second, because brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) gene polymorphisms reportedly influence the PPD ratio, we assessed whether BDNF genotype influences PPD ratio variability. Finally, we evaluated the test-retest reliability of PPD and the alpha, beta, and gamma ERD/ERS induced by somatosensory stimulation. Significant positive correlations were observed between the P60m_PPD ratio and beta power change, and the P60m_PPD ratio was significantly smaller for the beta ERD group than for the beta ERS group. P35m_PPD was found to be robust and highly reproducible; however, P60m_PPD reproducibility was poor. In addition, the ICC values for alpha, beta, and gamma ERD/ERS were 0.680, 0.760, and 0.552 respectively. These results suggest that the variability of PPD for the P60m deflection may be influenced by the ERD/ERS magnitude, which is induced by median nerve stimulation.

Body Composition of Elite Female Players in Five Different Sports Games

PubMed Central

Mala, Lucia; Maly, Tomas; Zahalka, František; Bunc, Vaclav; Kaplan, Ales; Jebavy, Radim; Tuma, Martin

2015-01-01

The goal of this study was to identify and compare body composition (BC) variables in elite female athletes (age ± years): volleyball (27.4 ± 4.1), softball (23.6 ± 4.9), basketball (25.9 ± 4.2), soccer (23.2 ± 4.2) and handball (24.0 ± 3.5) players. Fat-free mass (FFM), fat mass, percentage of fat mass (FMP), body cell mass (BCM), extracellular mass (ECM), their ratio, the percentage of BCM in FFM, the phase angle (α), and total body water, with a distinction between extracellular (ECW) and intracellular water, were measured using bioimpedance analysis. MANOVA showed significant differences in BC variables for athletes in different sports (F60.256 = 2.93, p < 0.01, η2 = 0.407). The results did not indicate any significant differences in FMP or α among the tested groups (p > 0.05). Significant changes in other BC variables were found in analyses when sport was used as an independent variable. Soccer players exhibited the most distinct BC, differing from players of other sports in 8 out of 10 variables. In contrast, the athletes with the most similar BC were volleyball and basketball players, who did not differ in any of the compared variables. Discriminant analysis revealed two significant functions (p < 0.01). The first discriminant function primarily represented differences based on the FFM proportion (volleyball, basketball vs. softball, soccer). The second discriminant function represented differences based on the ECW proportion (softball vs. soccer). Although all of the members of the studied groups competed at elite professional levels, significant differences in the selected BC variables were found. The results of the present study may serve as normative values for comparison or target values for training purposes. PMID:25964823

Body composition of elite female players in five different sports games.

PubMed

Mala, Lucia; Maly, Tomas; Zahalka, František; Bunc, Vaclav; Kaplan, Ales; Jebavy, Radim; Tuma, Martin

2015-03-29

The goal of this study was to identify and compare body composition (BC) variables in elite female athletes (age ± years): volleyball (27.4 ± 4.1), softball (23.6 ± 4.9), basketball (25.9 ± 4.2), soccer (23.2 ± 4.2) and handball (24.0 ± 3.5) players. Fat-free mass (FFM), fat mass, percentage of fat mass (FMP), body cell mass (BCM), extracellular mass (ECM), their ratio, the percentage of BCM in FFM, the phase angle (α), and total body water, with a distinction between extracellular (ECW) and intracellular water, were measured using bioimpedance analysis. MANOVA showed significant differences in BC variables for athletes in different sports (F60.256 = 2.93, p < 0.01, η2 = 0.407). The results did not indicate any significant differences in FMP or α among the tested groups (p > 0.05). Significant changes in other BC variables were found in analyses when sport was used as an independent variable. Soccer players exhibited the most distinct BC, differing from players of other sports in 8 out of 10 variables. In contrast, the athletes with the most similar BC were volleyball and basketball players, who did not differ in any of the compared variables. Discriminant analysis revealed two significant functions (p < 0.01). The first discriminant function primarily represented differences based on the FFM proportion (volleyball, basketball vs. softball, soccer). The second discriminant function represented differences based on the ECW proportion (softball vs. soccer). Although all of the members of the studied groups competed at elite professional levels, significant differences in the selected BC variables were found. The results of the present study may serve as normative values for comparison or target values for training purposes.

Enhanced future variability during India's rainy season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menon, Arathy; Levermann, Anders; Schewe, Jacob

2013-06-01

The Indian summer monsoon shapes the livelihood of a large share of the world's population. About 80% of annual precipitation over India occurs during the monsoon season from June through September. Next to its seasonal mean rainfall, the day-to-day variability is crucial for the risk of flooding, national water supply, and agricultural productivity. Here we show that the latest ensemble of climate model simulations, prepared for the AR-5 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, consistently projects significant increases in day-to-day rainfall variability under unmitigated climate change. The relative increase by the period 2071-2100 with respect to the control period 1871-1900 ranges from 13% to 50% under the strongest scenario (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP-8.5), in the 10 models with the most realistic monsoon climatology; and 13% to 85% when all the 20 models are considered. The spread across models reduces when variability increase per degree of global warming is considered, which is independent of the scenario in most models, and is 8% ± 4%/K on average. This consistent projection across 20 comprehensive climate models provides confidence in the results and suggests the necessity of profound adaptation measures in the case of unmitigated climate change.

Vulnerability and Tradeoffs of Dairy Farmers to the Impacts of Climate Variability and Change in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Radhakrishnan, A.; Gupta, J.; R, D.

2016-12-01

In recent years climate variability has threatened the sustainability of dairy animals and dairy farming in India. The study aims at assessing the vulnerability and tradeoffs of Dairy Based Livelihoods to Climate Variability and Change in the Western Ghat ecosystem and for this purpose; data were aggregated to an overall Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) to Climate Change underlying the principles of IPCC, using 28 indicators and trade-off between vulnerability and milk production was calculated. Data were collected through Participatory Rural Appraisal and personal interviews from 360 randomly selected dairy farmers of three states of Western Ghat region, complemented by thirty years of gridded weather data and livestock data. The index score of dairy based livelihoods of many regions were negative. Lanja taluka of Maharashtra has highest level of vulnerability with overall LVI value -4.17 with 48% farmers falling in highly vulnerable category. There is also significant tradeoff between milk production and components of LVI. Thus our research will provide an important basis for policy makers to develop appropriate adaptation strategies for alarming situation and decision making for farmers to minimize the risk of dairy sector to climate variability.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lopez, Anthony; Maclaurin, Galen; Roberts, Billy

Long-term variability of solar resource is an important factor in planning a utility-scale photovoltaic (PV) generation plant, and annual generation for a given location can vary significantly from year to year. Based on multiple years of solar irradiance data, an exceedance probability is the amount of energy that could potentially be produced by a power plant in any given year. An exceedance probability accounts for long-term variability and climate cycles (e.g., monsoons or changes in aerosols), which ultimately impact PV energy generation. Study results indicate that a significant bias could be associated with relying solely on typical meteorological year (TMY)more » resource data to capture long-term variability. While the TMY tends to under-predict annual generation overall compared to the P50, there appear to be pockets of over-prediction as well.« less

Modelling spatial and temporal variability of hydrologic impacts under climate changes over the Nenjiang River Basin, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Hao; Zhang, Wanchang

2017-10-01

The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model was adopted for investigating spatial and temporal variability of hydrologic impacts of climate change over the Nenjiang River Basin (NRB) based on a set of gridded forcing dataset at 1/12th degree resolution from 1970 to 2013. Basin-scale changes in the input forcing data and the simulated hydrological variables of the NRB, as well as station-scale changes in discharges for three major hydrometric stations were examined, which suggested that the model was performed fairly satisfactory in reproducing the observed discharges, meanwhile, the snow cover and evapotranspiration in temporal and spatial patterns were simulated reasonably corresponded to the remotely sensed ones. Wetland maps produced by multi-sources satellite images covering the entire basin between 1978 and 2008 were also utilized for investigating the responses and feedbacks of hydrological regimes on wetland dynamics. Results revealed that significant decreasing trends appeared in annual, spring and autumn streamflow demonstrated strong affection of precipitation and temperature changes over the study watershed, and the effects of climate change on the runoff reduction varied in the sub-basin area over different time scales. The proportion of evapotranspiration to precipitation characterized several severe fluctuations in droughts and floods took place in the region, which implied the enhanced sensitiveness and vulnerability of hydrologic regimes to changing environment of the region. Furthermore, it was found that the different types of wetlands undergone quite unique variation features with the varied hydro-meteorological conditions over the region, such as precipitation, evapotranspiration and soil moisture. This study provided effective scientific basis for water resource managers to develop effective eco-environment management plans and strategies that address the consequences of climate changes.

High skill in low-frequency climate response through fluctuation dissipation theorems despite structural instability.

PubMed

Majda, Andrew J; Abramov, Rafail; Gershgorin, Boris

2010-01-12

Climate change science focuses on predicting the coarse-grained, planetary-scale, longtime changes in the climate system due to either changes in external forcing or internal variability, such as the impact of increased carbon dioxide. The predictions of climate change science are carried out through comprehensive, computational atmospheric, and oceanic simulation models, which necessarily parameterize physical features such as clouds, sea ice cover, etc. Recently, it has been suggested that there is irreducible imprecision in such climate models that manifests itself as structural instability in climate statistics and which can significantly hamper the skill of computer models for climate change. A systematic approach to deal with this irreducible imprecision is advocated through algorithms based on the Fluctuation Dissipation Theorem (FDT). There are important practical and computational advantages for climate change science when a skillful FDT algorithm is established. The FDT response operator can be utilized directly for multiple climate change scenarios, multiple changes in forcing, and other parameters, such as damping and inverse modelling directly without the need of running the complex climate model in each individual case. The high skill of FDT in predicting climate change, despite structural instability, is developed in an unambiguous fashion using mathematical theory as guidelines in three different test models: a generic class of analytical models mimicking the dynamical core of the computer climate models, reduced stochastic models for low-frequency variability, and models with a significant new type of irreducible imprecision involving many fast, unstable modes.

Modeling soil organic carbon dynamics and their driving factors in the main global cereal cropping systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Guocheng; Zhang, Wen; Sun, Wenjuan; Li, Tingting; Han, Pengfei

2017-10-01

Changes in the soil organic carbon (SOC) stock are determined by the balance between the carbon input from organic materials and the output from the decomposition of soil C. The fate of SOC in cropland soils plays a significant role in both sustainable agricultural production and climate change mitigation. The spatiotemporal changes of soil organic carbon in croplands in response to different carbon (C) input management and environmental conditions across the main global cereal systems were studied using a modeling approach. We also identified the key variables that drive SOC changes at a high spatial resolution (0.1° × 0.1°) and over a long timescale (54 years from 1961 to 2014). A widely used soil C turnover model (RothC) and state-of-the-art databases of soil and climate variables were used in the present study. The model simulations suggested that, on a global average, the cropland SOC density increased at annual rates of 0.22, 0.45 and 0.69 Mg C ha-1 yr-1 under crop residue retention rates of 30, 60 and 90 %, respectively. Increasing the quantity of C input could enhance soil C sequestration or reduce the rate of soil C loss, depending largely on the local soil and climate conditions. Spatially, under a specific crop residue retention rate, relatively higher soil C sinks were found across the central parts of the USA, western Europe, and the northern regions of China. Relatively smaller soil C sinks occurred in the high-latitude regions of both the Northern and Southern hemispheres, and SOC decreased across the equatorial zones of Asia, Africa and America. We found that SOC change was significantly influenced by the crop residue retention rate (linearly positive) and the edaphic variable of initial SOC content (linearly negative). Temperature had weak negative effects, and precipitation had significantly negative impacts on SOC changes. The results can help guide carbon input management practices to effectively mitigate climate change through soil C sequestration in croplands on a global scale.

Estimating the impact of internal climate variability on ice sheet model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsai, C. Y.; Forest, C. E.; Pollard, D.

2016-12-01

Rising sea level threatens human societies and coastal habitats and melting ice sheets are a major contributor to sea level rise (SLR). Thus, understanding uncertainty of both forcing and variability within the climate system is essential for assessing long-term risk of SLR given their impact on ice sheet evolution. The predictability of polar climate is limited by uncertainties from the given forcing, the climate model response to this forcing, and the internal variability from feedbacks within the fully coupled climate system. Among those sources of uncertainty, the impact of internal climate variability on ice sheet changes has not yet been robustly assessed. Here we investigate how internal variability affects ice sheet projections using climate fields from two Community Earth System Model (CESM) large-ensemble (LE) experiments to force a three-dimensional ice sheet model. Each ensemble member in an LE experiment undergoes the same external forcings but with unique initial conditions. We find that for both LEs, 2m air temperature variability over Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) can lead to significantly different ice sheet responses. Our results show that the internal variability from two fully coupled CESM LEs can cause about 25 35 mm differences of GrIS's contribution to SLR in 2100 compared to present day (about 20% of the total change), and 100m differences of SLR in 2300. Moreover, only using ensemble-mean climate fields as the forcing in ice sheet model can significantly underestimate the melt of GrIS. As the Arctic region becomes warmer, the role of internal variability is critical given the complex nonlinear interactions between surface temperature and ice sheet. Our results demonstrate that internal variability from coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model can affect ice sheet simulations and the resulting sea-level projections. This study highlights an urgent need to reassess associated uncertainties of projecting ice sheet loss over the next few centuries to obtain robust estimates of the contribution of ice sheet melt to SLR.

Neural and vascular variability and the fMRI-BOLD response in normal aging

PubMed Central

Kannurpatti, Sridhar S.; Motes, Michael A.; Rypma, Bart; Biswal, Bharat B.

2010-01-01

Neural, vascular and structural variables contributing to the BOLD signal response variability were investigated in younger and older humans. Twelve younger healthy human subjects (6M and 6F; mean age: 24 years; range: 19–27 years) and twelve older healthy subjects (5M and 7F; mean age: 58 years; range: 55–71 years) with no history of head trauma and neurological disease were scanned. FMRI measurements using the BOLD contrast were made when participants performed a motor, cognitive or a breath hold task. Activation volume and the BOLD response amplitude were estimated for the younger and older at both group and subject levels. Mean activation volume was reduced by 45, 40 and 38% in the elderly group during the motor, cognitive and breath hold tasks respectively compared to the younger. Reduction in activation volume was substantially higher compared to the reduction in the gray matter volume of 14% in the older compared to the younger. A significantly larger variability in the inter-subject BOLD signal change occurred during the motor task, compared to the cognitive task. BH-induced BOLD signal change between subjects was significantly less-variable in the motor task-activated areas in the younger compared to older whereas such a difference between age groups was not observed during the cognitive task. Hemodynamic scaling using the BH signal substantially reduced the BOLD signal variability during the motor task compared to the cognitive task. The results indicate that the origin of the BOLD signal variability between subjects was predominantly vascular during the motor task while being principally a consequence of neural variability during the cognitive task. Thus, in addition to gray matter differences, the type of task performed can have different vascular variability weighting that can influence age-related differences in brain functional response. PMID:20117893

Neural and vascular variability and the fMRI-BOLD response in normal aging.

PubMed

Kannurpatti, Sridhar S; Motes, Michael A; Rypma, Bart; Biswal, Bharat B

2010-05-01

Neural, vascular and structural variables contributing to the blood oxygen level-dependent (BOLD) signal response variability were investigated in younger and older humans. Twelve younger healthy human subjects (six male and six female; mean age: 24 years; range: 19-27 years) and 12 older healthy subjects (five male and seven female; mean age: 58 years; range: 55-71 years) with no history of head trauma and neurological disease were scanned. Functional magnetic resonance imaging measurements using the BOLD contrast were made when participants performed a motor, cognitive or a breath hold (BH) task. Activation volume and the BOLD response amplitude were estimated for the younger and older at both group and subject levels. Mean activation volume was reduced by 45%, 40% and 38% in the elderly group during the motor, cognitive and BH tasks, respectively, compared to the younger. Reduction in activation volume was substantially higher compared to the reduction in the gray matter volume of 14% in the older compared to the younger. A significantly larger variability in the intersubject BOLD signal change occurred during the motor task, compared to the cognitive task. BH-induced BOLD signal change between subjects was significantly less-variable in the motor task-activated areas in the younger compared to older whereas such a difference between age groups was not observed during the cognitive task. Hemodynamic scaling using the BH signal substantially reduced the BOLD signal variability during the motor task compared to the cognitive task. The results indicate that the origin of the BOLD signal variability between subjects was predominantly vascular during the motor task while being principally a consequence of neural variability during the cognitive task. Thus, in addition to gray matter differences, the type of task performed can have different vascular variability weighting that can influence age-related differences in brain functional response. 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Analysis of weight control in Korean adolescents using the transtheoretical model.

PubMed

Chae, Sun-Mi; Kwon, Insook; Kim, Chun-Ja; Jang, Jaecheol

2010-06-01

The purpose of this study was to identify the stages of change, the processes of change, and the decisional balance for weight control, self-efficacy, and other weight control-related variables and to determine the significant factors explaining movements between the stages of change in Korean adolescents. A total of 475 adolescents completed questionnaires and anthropometric measures. The majority of the adolescents were in the precontemplation (42.1%) and contemplation (43.0%) stages. The benefits of weight control (pros), desire for weight change, perceived body shape, and past experience with weight control increased the odds ratio of movement from precontemplation to contemplation. Stimulus control, self-reevaluation, regular exercise, and past experience of weight control significantly influenced the movement to action and maintenance from contemplation. The study results suggest that weight control programs should emphasize significant factors to help adolescents move through the stages of change.

Temporal changes in aquatic-invertebrate and fish assemblages in streams of the north-central and northeastern U.S.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kennen, Jonathan G.; Sullivan, Daniel J.; May, Jason T.; Bell, Amanda H.; Beaulieu, Karen M.; Rice, Donald E.

2012-01-01

Many management agencies seek to evaluate temporal changes in aquatic assemblages at monitoring sites, but few have sites with ecological time series that are long enough for this purpose. Trends in aquatic-invertebrate and fish assemblage composition were assessed at 27 long-term monitoring sites in the north-central and northeastern United States. Temporal changes were identified using serial trend analysis. Sites with significant serial trends were further evaluated by relating explanatory environmental variables (e.g., streamflow, habitat, and water chemistry) to changes in assemblage composition. Significant trends were found at 19 of 27 study sites; however, differences in the sensitivity of the aquatic fauna to environmental stressors were identified. For example, significant trends in fish assemblages were found at more sites (15 of 27) than for aquatic-invertebrate assemblages (10 of 27 sites). In addition, trends in the invertebrate assemblage were most often explained by changes in streamflow processes (e.g., duration and magnitude of low- and high-flows, streamflow variability, and annual rates of change), whereas trends in the fish assemblage were more related to changes in water chemistry. Results illustrate the value of long-term monitoring for the purpose of assessing temporal trends in aquatic assemblages. The ability to detect trends in assemblage composition and to attribute these changes to environmental factors is necessary to understand mechanistic pathways and to further our understanding of how incremental anthropogenic alterations modify aquatic assemblages over time. Finally, this study's approach to trends analysis can be used to better inform the design of monitoring programs as well as support the ongoing management needs of stakeholders, water-resource agencies, and policy makers.

Computer mouse movement patterns: A potential marker of mild cognitive impairment.

PubMed

Seelye, Adriana; Hagler, Stuart; Mattek, Nora; Howieson, Diane B; Wild, Katherine; Dodge, Hiroko H; Kaye, Jeffrey A

2015-12-01

Subtle changes in cognitively demanding activities occur in MCI but are difficult to assess with conventional methods. In an exploratory study, we examined whether patterns of computer mouse movements obtained from routine home computer use discriminated between older adults with and without MCI. Participants were 42 cognitively intact and 20 older adults with MCI enrolled in a longitudinal study of in-home monitoring technologies. Mouse pointer movement variables were computed during one week of routine home computer use using algorithms that identified and characterized mouse movements within each computer use session. MCI was associated with making significantly fewer total mouse moves ( p <.01), and making mouse movements that were more variable, less efficient, and with longer pauses between movements ( p <.05). Mouse movement measures were significantly associated with several cognitive domains ( p 's<.01-.05). Remotely monitored computer mouse movement patterns are a potential early marker of real-world cognitive changes in MCI.

A Motivational Physical Activity Intervention for Improving Mobility in Older Korean Americans.

PubMed

Yeom, Hye-A; Fleury, Julie

2014-07-01

There has been limited empirical support for interventions designed to promote physical activity targeting mobility in racially diverse older adults. This study aims to examine the effects of a Motivational Physical Activity Intervention (MPAI) on social resource, behavioral change process, physical activity, and mobility variables in sedentary older Korean Americans. A quasi-experimental, repeated-measure, pre- and post-tests design was used. Sixty-four community-dwelling, sedentary older Korean Americans (n = 33 for MPAI group, n = 31 for Attention Control group) participated in the study. There were significant improvements in social resources, including social support from family and friends; behavioral change process variables, including self-efficacy; motivational appraisal; and self-regulation for physical activity. There were significant intervention effects on physical activity, walking endurance, and flexibility. The MPAI is supported as improving mobility and physical activity, as well as increasing motivation for physical activity in older Korean Americans. © The Author(s) 2013.

Changes in lipid profile variables in response to submaximal and maximal exercise in trained cyclists.

PubMed

El-Sayed, M S; Rattu, A J

1996-01-01

This study examined the effect of prolonged submaximal exercise followed by a self-paced maximal performance test on cholesterol (T-Chol), triglycerides (TG), and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDLC). Nine trained male athletes cycled at 70 percent of maximal oxygen consumption for 60 min, followed by a self-paced maximal ride for 10 min. Venous blood samples were obtained at rest, at 30 and 60 min during submaximal exercise, and immediately after the performance test. Lactic acid, haematocrit (Hct), haemoglobin (Hb), T-Chol and TG were measured in the blood, while plasma was assayed for HDL-C. Plasma volume changes in response to exercise were calculated from Hct and Hb values and all lipid measurements were corrected accordingly. In order to ascertain the repeatability of lipid responses to exercise, all subjects were re-tested under identical testing conditions and experimental protocols. When data obtained during the two exercise trials were analysed by two-way ANOVA no significant differences (P > 0.05) between tests were observed. Consequently the data obtained during the two testing trials were pooled and analysed by one-way ANOVA. Blood lactic acid increased nonsignificantly (P > 0.05) during the prolonged submaximal test, but rose markedly (P <0.05) following the performance ride. Lipid variables ascertained at rest were within the normal range for healthy subjects. ANOVA showed that blood T-Chol and TG were unchanged (P > 0.05), whereas HDL-C rose significantly (P <0.05) in response to exercise. Post hoc analyses indicated that the latter change was due to a significant rise in HDL-C after the performance ride. It is concluded that apparent favourable changes in lipid profile variables occur in response to prolonged submaximal exercise followed by maximal effort, and these changes showed a good level of agreement over the two testing occasions.

Yoga Nidra relaxation increases heart rate variability and is unaffected by a prior bout of Hatha yoga.

PubMed

Markil, Nina; Whitehurst, Michael; Jacobs, Patrick L; Zoeller, Robert F

2012-10-01

The measurement of heart rate variability (HRV) is often applied as an index of autonomic nervous system (ANS) balance and, therefore, myocardial stability. Previous studies have suggested that relaxation or mind-body exercise can influence ANS balance positively as measured by HRV but may act via different mechanisms. No studies, to the authors' knowledge, have examined the acute response in HRV to interventions combining relaxation and mind-body exercise. The objective of this study was to compare the acute HRV responses to Yoga Nidra relaxation alone versus Yoga Nidra relaxation preceded by Hatha yoga. This was a randomized counter-balanced trial. The trial was conducted in a university exercise physiology laboratory. Subjects included 20 women and men (29.15±6.98 years of age, with a range of 18-47 years). Participants completed a yoga plus relaxation (YR) session and a relaxation only (R) session. The YR condition produced significant changes from baseline in heart rate (HR; beats per minute [bpm], p<0.001) and indices of HRV: R-R (ms, p<0.001), pNN50 (%, p=0.009), low frequency (LF; %, p=0.008) and high frequency (HF; %, p=0.035). The R condition produced significant changes from baseline in heart rate (bpm, p<0.001) as well as indices of HRV: R-R (ms, p<0.001), HF (ms(2), p=0.004), LF (%, p=0.005), HF (%, p=0.008) and LF:HF ratio (%, p=0.008). There were no significant differences between conditions at baseline nor for the changes from baseline for any of the variables. These changes demonstrate a favorable shift in autonomic balance to the parasympathetic branch of the ANS for both conditions, and that Yoga Nidra relaxation produces favorable changes in measures of HRV whether alone or preceded by a bout of Hatha yoga.

Water-quality trend analysis and sampling design for streams in the Red River of the North Basin, Minnesota, North Dakota, and South Dakota, 1970-2001

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vecchia, Aldo V.

2005-01-01

The Bureau of Reclamation is considering several alternatives to meet the future municipal, rural, and industrial water-supply needs in the Red River of the North (Red River) Basin, and an environmental impact statement is being prepared to evaluate the potential effects of the various alternatives on the water quality and aquatic health in the basin in relation to the historical variability of streamflow and constituent concentration. Therefore, a water-quality trend analysis was needed to determine the amount of natural water-quality variability that can be expected to occur in the basin, to determine if significant water-quality changes have occurred as a result of human activities, to explore potential causal mechanisms for water-quality changes, and to establish a baseline from which to monitor future water-quality trends. This report presents the results of a study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation, to analyze historical water-quality trends in two dissolved major ions, dissolved solids, three nutrients, and two dissolved trace metals for nine streamflow-gaging stations in the basin. Annual variability in streamflow in the Red River Basin was high during the trend-analysis period (1970-2001). The annual variability affects constituent concentrations in individual tributaries to the Red River and, in turn, affects constituent concentrations in the main stem of the Red River because of the relative streamflow contribution from the tributaries to the main stem. Therefore, an annual concentration anomaly, which is an estimate of the interannual variability in concentration that can be attributed to long-term variability in streamflow, was used to analyze annual streamflow-related variability in constituent concentrations. The concentration trend is an estimate of the long-term systematic changes in concentration that are unrelated to seasonal or long-term variability in streamflow. Concentrations that have both the seasonal and annual variability removed are called standardized concentrations. Numerous changes that could not be attributed to natural streamflow-related variability occurred in the standardized concentrations during the trend-analysis period. During various times from the late 1970's to the mid-1990's, significant increases occurred in standardized dissolved sulfate, dissolved chloride, and dissolved- solids concentrations for eight of the nine stations for which water-quality trends were analyzed. Significant increases also occurred from the early 1980's to the mid-1990's for standardized dissolved nitrite plus nitrate concentrations for the main-stem stations. The increasing concentrations for the main-stem stations indicate the upward trends may have been caused by human activities along the main stem of the Red River. Significant trends for standardized total ammonia plus organic nitrogen concentrations occurred for most stations. The fitted trends for standardized total phosphorus concentrations for one tributary station increased from the late 1970's to the early 1980's and decreased from the early 1980's to the mid-1990's. Small but insignificant increases occurred for two main-stem stations. No trends were detected for standardized dissolved iron or dissolved manganese concentrations. However, the combination of extreme high-frequency variability, few data, and the number of censored values may have disguised the streamflow-related variability for iron. The time-series model used to detect historical concentration trends also was used to evaluate sampling designs to monitor future water-quality trends. Various sampling designs were evaluated with regard to their sensitivity to detect both annual and seasonal trends during three 4-month seasons. A reasonable overall design for detecting trends for all stations and constituents consisted of eight samples per year, with monthly sampling from April to August and bimonthly sampling from October to February.

Prognostic significance of day-by-day variability of home blood pressure on progression to macroalbuminuria in patients with diabetes.

PubMed

Ushigome, Emi; Matsumoto, Shinobu; Oyabu, Chikako; Kitagawa, Noriyuki; Tanaka, Toru; Hasegawa, Goji; Ohnishi, Masayoshi; Tsunoda, Sei; Ushigome, Hidetaka; Yokota, Isao; Nakamura, Naoto; Oda, Yohei; Asano, Mai; Tanaka, Muhei; Yamazaki, Masahiro; Fukui, Michiaki

2018-05-01

Previously, we have shown in cross-sectional analysis of patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus that the presence of diabetic nephropathy is associated with increased home blood pressure (HBP) variability. We now examine the prognostic significance of HBP variability in substantially the same cohort. We performed a prospective cohort study of type 2 diabetes patients. We analyzed 714 patients. Major exclusion criteria are missing data of urinary albumin excretion and newly prescribed or stopped renin-angiotensin system inhibitors during 2-year follow-up. Patients were instructed to perform triplicate morning and evening HBP measurements for 14 consecutive days. We computed day-by-day HBP variability as within-patient standard deviation (SD) and coefficient of variation (CV) of measurements. During the follow-up period of 2 years, 23 patients progressed to macroalbuminuria. The changing risk of progression to macroalbuminuria with increasing day-by-day variability of morning SBP was better depicted using smoothing spline analyses. Patients with greater SD of morning SBP tended to significantly progress to macroalbuminuria [odds ratio: 5.24 (95% confidence interval: 2.10-13.03; P > 0.001)]. Patients with greater CV of morning SBP also tended to significantly progress to macroalbuminuria [odds ratio: 3.36 (95% confidence interval: 1.39-8.12; P = 0.007)]. Day-by-day variability of morning SBP was proven as an independent predictor for progression to macroalbuminuria in patients with type 2 diabetes.

Variability of a "force signature" during windmill softball pitching and relationship between discrete force variables and pitch velocity.

PubMed

Nimphius, Sophia; McGuigan, Michael R; Suchomel, Timothy J; Newton, Robert U

2016-06-01

This study assessed reliability of discrete ground reaction force (GRF) variables over multiple pitching trials, investigated the relationships between discrete GRF variables and pitch velocity (PV) and assessed the variability of the "force signature" or continuous force-time curve during the pitching motion of windmill softball pitchers. Intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) for all discrete variables was high (0.86-0.99) while the coefficient of variance (CV) was low (1.4-5.2%). Two discrete variables were significantly correlated to PV; second vertical peak force (r(5)=0.81, p=0.03) and time between peak forces (r(5)=-0.79; p=0.03). High ICCs and low CVs support the reliability of discrete GRF and PV variables over multiple trials and significant correlations indicate there is a relationship between the ability to produce force and the timing of this force production with PV. The mean of all pitchers' curve-average standard deviation of their continuous force-time curves demonstrated low variability (CV=4.4%) indicating a repeatable and identifiable "force signature" pattern during this motion. As such, the continuous force-time curve in addition to discrete GRF variables should be examined in future research as a potential method to monitor or explain changes in pitching performance. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spatiotemporal movement variability in ALS: Speaking rate effects on tongue, lower lip, and jaw motor control

PubMed Central

Kuruvilla-Dugdale, Mili; Mefferd, Antje

2017-01-01

Purpose Although it is frequently presumed that bulbar muscle degeneration in Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) is associated with progressive loss of speech motor control, empirical evidence is limited. Furthermore, because speaking rate slows with disease progression and rate manipulations are used to improve intelligibility in ALS, this study sought to (i) determine between and within-group differences in articulatory motor control as a result of speaking rate changes and (ii) identify the strength of association between articulatory motor control and speech impairment severity. Method Ten talkers with ALS and 11 healthy controls repeated the target sentence at habitual, fast, and slow rates. The spatiotemporal variability index (STI) was calculated to determine tongue, lower lip, and jaw movement variability. Results During habitual speech, talkers with mild-moderate dysarthria displayed significantly lower tongue and lip movement variability whereas those with severe dysarthria showed greater variability compared to controls. Within-group rate effects were significant only for talkers with ALS. Specifically, lip and tongue movement variability significantly increased during slow speech relative to habitual and fast speech. Finally, preliminary associations between speech impairment severity and movement variability were moderate to strong in talkers with ALS. Conclusion Between-group differences for habitual speech and within-group effects for slow speech replicated previous findings for lower lip and jaw movements. Preliminary findings of moderate to strong associations between speech impairment severity and STI suggest that articulatory variability may vary from pathologically low (possibly indicating articulatory compensation) to pathologically high variability (possibly indicating loss of control) with dysarthria progression in ALS. PMID:28528293

Variability in nest density, occupancy, and home range size of western bluebirds after forest treatments

Treesearch

Sarah Hurteau; Thomas Sisk; Brett Dickson; William Block

2010-01-01

Complex land use and fuels management histories have resulted in significant changes in composition, structure, and function of southwestern forests and subsequent changes in the extent and quality of wildlife habitats. We evaluated how several currently used fuel reduction treatments (e.g., mechanical thinning and prescribed fire alone and in combination) affect nest...

An Analysis of the Relationship between the Attitudes of Iranian EFL Learners to Native English Speakers and Their Reported Identity Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mokhtarnia, Shabnam; Ghafar-Samar, Reza

2016-01-01

This study aimed at exploring the possible differences between Iranian English and non-English major students in terms of their attitude towards native English speakers and reported self-identity change. It also attempted to investigate the possible significant relationships between these two variables. The results of the independent-sample…

A Model of the Base Civil Engineering Work Request/Work Order Processing System.

DTIC Science & Technology

1979-09-01

changes to the work order processing system. This research identifies the variables that significantly affect the accomplishment time and proposes a... order processing system and its behavior with respect to work order processing time. A conceptual model was developed to describe the work request...work order processing system as a stochastic queueing system in which the processing times and the various distributions are treated as random variables

Acoustic changes of the voice as signs of vocal fatigue in radio broadcasters: preliminary findings.

PubMed

Guzmán, Marco; Malebrán, María Celina; Zavala, Paulina; Saldívar, Patricio; Muñoz, Daniel

2013-01-01

Vocal fatigue is one of the most common voice symptoms. It usually refers to the sensation of vocal tiredness after a long period of speaking or singing. The purpose of this study was to compare the acoustic characteristics of the voice before and after a long period of voice use in a group of radio broadcasters. Eight radio broadcasters with normal voices were assessed. We used cepstrum, energy ratio, noise to harmonic ratio and soft phonation index as acoustic variables to assess the possible pre-post vocal loading changes objectively. There were no statistically significant pre-post differences in any of the acoustic parameters. Although cepstrum at high pitch did not show a significant difference, it obtained the greatest difference among the acoustic variables. The acoustic measurements used in the present study might not be sensitive enough or appropriate for detecting vocal changes after a long period of voice use, whether in reading (as reported in previous research) or speaking tasks. Moreover, a longer period of vocal loading would eventually reveal more evident and consistent acoustic voice changes. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

[Changes in PCO2 and pH gradients in a canine model of experimental acute hemorrhage].

PubMed

Rabanal, J M; Mons, R; Galindo, M; Solares, G; Seco, I; García-Castrillo, L

1999-01-01

To study changes in arterial-venous PCO2 pressures (Da-vPCO2) and in pH (Da-vpH) in an experimental dog model of acute bleeding. To emphasize the utility of monitoring these variables in situations of acute bleeding. ANIMALS AND METHOD: Eighteen dogs were anesthesized and monitored while being subjected to gradual bleeding. Gasometric and hemodynamic variables were recorded at the following moments: baseline, stage I (15% of volemic loss), stage Ib (20%), stage II (25%), stage IIb (30%) and stage III (35%). No significant differences in pH or PCO2 in either arterial or mixed venous blood were found. Bleeding induced a constant and progressive increase in Da-vPCO2 that correlated with changes in volume (r = -0.56, p < 0.001), SvO2 (r = 0.71; p < 0.001), Da-vO2 gradient (r = 0.62; p < 0.001) and cardiac output (r = 0.63; p < 0.001). Gradual bleeding caused a constant and significant increase of Da-vPCO2. Monitoring such changes in states of circulatory insufficiency may be useful for evaluating tissue ischemia.

Thermal infrared imaging of the temporal variability in stomatal conductance for fruit trees

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Struthers, Raymond; Ivanova, Anna; Tits, Laurent; Swennen, Rony; Coppin, Pol

2015-07-01

Repeated measurements using thermal infrared remote sensing were used to characterize the change in canopy temperature over time and factors that influenced this change on 'Conference' pear trees (Pyrus communis L.). Three different types of sensors were used, a leaf porometer to measure leaf stomatal conductance, a thermal infrared camera to measure the canopy temperature and a meteorological sensor to measure weather variables. Stomatal conductance of water stressed pear was significantly lower than in the control group 9 days after stress began. This decrease in stomatal conductance reduced transpiration, reducing evaporative cooling that increased canopy temperature. Using thermal infrared imaging with wavelengths between 7.5 and13 μm, the first significant difference was measured 18 days after stress began. A second order derivative described the average rate of change of the difference between the stress treatment and control group. The average rate of change for stomatal conductance was 0.06 (mmol m-2 s-1) and for canopy temperature was -0.04 (°C) with respect to days. Thermal infrared remote sensing and data analysis presented in this study demonstrated that the differences in canopy temperatures between the water stress and control treatment due to stomata regulation can be validated.

Effects of increased wind power generation on Mid-Norway's energy balance under climate change: A market based approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Francois, Baptiste; Martino, Sara; Tofte, Lena; Hingray, Benoit; Mo, Birger; Creutin, Jean-Dominique

2017-04-01

Thanks to its huge water storage capacity, Norway has an excess of energy generation at annual scale, although significant regional disparity exists. On average, the Mid-Norway region has an energy deficit and needs to import more electricity than it exports. We show that this energy deficit can be reduced with an increase in wind generation and transmission line capacity, even in future climate scenarios where both mean annual temperature and precipitation are changed. For the considered scenarios, the deficit observed in winter disappears, i.e. when electricity consumption and prices are high. At the annual scale, the deficit behavior depends more on future changes in precipitation. Another consequence of changes in wind production and transmission capacity is the modification of electricity exchanges with neighboring regions which are also modified both in terms of average, variability and seasonality. Keywords: Variable renewable energy, Wind, Hydro, Energy balance, Energy market

Object view in spatial system dynamics: a grassland farming example

PubMed Central

Neuwirth, Christian; Hofer, Barbara; Schaumberger, Andreas

2016-01-01

Abstract Spatial system dynamics (SSD) models are typically implemented by linking stock variables to raster grids while the use of object representations of human artefacts such as buildings or ownership has been limited. This limitation is addressed by this article, which demonstrates the use of object representations in SSD. The objects are parcels of land that are attributed to grassland farms. The model simulates structural change in agriculture, i.e., change in the size of farms. The aim of the model is to reveal relations between structural change, farmland fragmentation and variable farmland quality. Results show that fragmented farms tend to become consolidated by structural change, whereas consolidated initial conditions result in a significant increase of fragmentation. Consolidation is reinforced by a dynamic land market and high transportation costs. The example demonstrates the capabilities of the object-based approach for integrating object geometries (parcel shapes) and relations between objects (distances between parcels) dynamically in SSD. PMID:28190972

Reliable change of the sensory organization test.

PubMed

Broglio, Steven P; Ferrara, Michael S; Sopiarz, Kay; Kelly, Michael S

2008-03-01

To establish the sensitivity and specificity of the NeuroCom Sensory Organization Test (SOT) and provide practitioners with cut-scores for clinical decision making using estimates of reliable change. Retrospective cohort study. Research laboratory. Healthy (n = 66) and concussed (n = 63) young adult participants. Postural control assessments on the NeuroCom SOT were completed twice (baseline and follow-up) for both groups. Postconcussion assessments were administered within 24 hours of injury diagnosis. The reliable change technique was used to calculated cut-scores for each SOT variable (composite balance; somatosensory, visual, and vestibular ratios) at the 95%, 90%, 85%, 80%, 75%, and 70% confidence interval levels. When cut-scores were applied to the post-concussion evaluations, sensitivity and specificity varied with SOT variable and confidence interval. An evaluation for change on one or more SOT variable resulted in the highest combined sensitivity (57%) and specificity (80%) at the 75% confidence interval. Use of reliable change scores to detect significant changes in performance on the SOT resulted in decreased sensitivity and improved specificity compared to a previous report. These findings indicate that some concussed athletes may not show large changes in postconcussion postural control and this postural control evaluation should not be used in exclusion of other assessment techniques. The postural control assessment should be combined with other evaluative measures to gain the highest sensitivity to concussive injuries.

Children with developmental coordination disorder (DCD) can adapt to perceptible and subliminal rhythm changes but are more variable.

PubMed

Roche, Renuka; Viswanathan, Priya; Clark, Jane E; Whitall, Jill

2016-12-01

Children with DCD demonstrate impairments in bimanual finger tapping during self-paced tapping and tapping in synchrony to different frequencies. In this study, we investigated the ability of children with DCD to adapt motorically to perceptible or subliminal changes of the auditory stimuli without a change in frequency, and compared their performance to typically developing controls (TDC). Nineteen children with DCD between ages 6-11years (mean age±SD=114±21months) and 17 TDC (mean age±SD=113±21months) participated in this study. Auditory perceptual threshold was established. Children initially tapped bimanually to an antiphase beat and then to either a perceptible change in rhythm or to gradual subliminal changes in rhythm. Children with DCD were able to perceive changes in rhythm similar to TDC. They were also able to adapt to both perceptible and subliminal changes in rhythms similar to their age- and gender- matched TDC. However, these children were significantly more variable compared with TDC in all phasing conditions. The results suggest that the performance impairments in bilateral tapping are not a result of poor conscious or sub-conscious perception of the auditory cue. The increased motor variability may be associated with cerebellar dysfunction but further behavioral and neurophysiological studies are needed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests.

PubMed

Abatzoglou, John T; Williams, A Park

2016-10-18

Increased forest fire activity across the western continental United States (US) in recent decades has likely been enabled by a number of factors, including the legacy of fire suppression and human settlement, natural climate variability, and human-caused climate change. We use modeled climate projections to estimate the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to observed increases in eight fuel aridity metrics and forest fire area across the western United States. Anthropogenic increases in temperature and vapor pressure deficit significantly enhanced fuel aridity across western US forests over the past several decades and, during 2000-2015, contributed to 75% more forested area experiencing high (>1 σ) fire-season fuel aridity and an average of nine additional days per year of high fire potential. Anthropogenic climate change accounted for ∼55% of observed increases in fuel aridity from 1979 to 2015 across western US forests, highlighting both anthropogenic climate change and natural climate variability as important contributors to increased wildfire potential in recent decades. We estimate that human-caused climate change contributed to an additional 4.2 million ha of forest fire area during 1984-2015, nearly doubling the forest fire area expected in its absence. Natural climate variability will continue to alternate between modulating and compounding anthropogenic increases in fuel aridity, but anthropogenic climate change has emerged as a driver of increased forest fire activity and should continue to do so while fuels are not limiting.

Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abatzoglou, John T.; Park Williams, A.

2016-10-01

Increased forest fire activity across the western continental United States (US) in recent decades has likely been enabled by a number of factors, including the legacy of fire suppression and human settlement, natural climate variability, and human-caused climate change. We use modeled climate projections to estimate the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to observed increases in eight fuel aridity metrics and forest fire area across the western United States. Anthropogenic increases in temperature and vapor pressure deficit significantly enhanced fuel aridity across western US forests over the past several decades and, during 2000-2015, contributed to 75% more forested area experiencing high (>1 σ) fire-season fuel aridity and an average of nine additional days per year of high fire potential. Anthropogenic climate change accounted for ˜55% of observed increases in fuel aridity from 1979 to 2015 across western US forests, highlighting both anthropogenic climate change and natural climate variability as important contributors to increased wildfire potential in recent decades. We estimate that human-caused climate change contributed to an additional 4.2 million ha of forest fire area during 1984-2015, nearly doubling the forest fire area expected in its absence. Natural climate variability will continue to alternate between modulating and compounding anthropogenic increases in fuel aridity, but anthropogenic climate change has emerged as a driver of increased forest fire activity and should continue to do so while fuels are not limiting.

Study on changes in cognitive function of elderly individuals certified for long-term care insurance.

PubMed

Horiguchi, Minako; Kokubu, Keiko; Mori, Toru

2017-01-01

Objectives　To elucidate the changes in cognitive function in elderly individuals as observed in the results of a long-term care certification survey.Methods　The data were obtained from the long-term care insurance of 121 subjects who applied for benefit renewal between 2010 and 2011, in a city in Japan. The subjects were grouped into one of three groups (improved, maintained, or worsened) according to the change in status of overall cognitive function. Analyses were completed with this grouping as the main dependent variable and with sex, age, degree of independence at the initial insurance application in 2006, and levels of seven categories of cognitive function as independent variables.Results　There was a statistically significant association between age and deterioration of various cognitive functions. Sex had no significant effect on the rate of deterioration. The initial degree of independence was positively associated with the cognitive function change. Multivariate analysis (logistic regression analysis) incorporating age, sex, and initial degree of dependence as independent variables revealed that sex does not significantly influence the prognosis of cognitive function. Changes in the score of each of the seven cognitive functions were analyzed with ANOVA, with categories of functions and individuals as sources of variance. Both function category and individuals were significantly associated with deterioration. Among the seven categories of functions, "understanding daily activities" had the greatest deterioration, while "calling him/herself by his/her own name" had the least.Conclusion　Cognitive function, as observed in the long-term care certification survey, is more likely to deteriorate in elderly individuals and in those who were at higher levels of dependency index at the time of initial certification, and this effect is observed equally in men and women. Our results suggest that, in providing long-term care for elderly people, it may be useful to call the clients by their names and ask them to name themselves, as well as to try to improve their understanding regarding the daily activities by articulating the components of each activity.

Educational Pathways and Change in Crime Between Adolescence and Early Adulthood

PubMed Central

Swisher, Raymond R.; Dennison, Christopher R.

2016-01-01

Objectives This article examines the relationship between intergenerational educational pathways and change in crime. Moreover, it examines the potential mediating roles of family and employment transitions, economic stressors, and social psychological factors. Method Data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (N = 14,742) and negative binomial models are used to assess associations between educational pathways (i.e., upward, downward, and stable) and change in crime between adolescence and early adulthood. Selection effects are assessed with lagged dependent variables and controls for self-control, grades, and the Add Health Picture Vocabulary Test. Results Intergenerational educational pathways are significantly associated with changes in crime. Downward educational pathways were predictive of increases in crime, whereas upward pathways were associated with decreases in crime. These associations were partly mediated by family transitions, and more strongly by economic stressors. These results were robust to controls for selection related variables. Conclusions This study is among the first to examine the relationship between intergenerational educational pathways and crime in the United States. Both upward and downward changes in educational attainments were found to be significant for crime. These findings are notable given the continuing expansion of higher education as well as concerns regarding increasing stratification and downward mobility in the United States. PMID:28348441

Quantifying the effects of climate variability and human activities on runoff for Kaidu River Basin in arid region of northwest China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Zhongsheng; Chen, Yaning; Li, Baofu

2013-02-01

Much attention has recently been focused on the effects that climate variability and human activities have had on runoff. In this study, data from the Kaidu River Basin in the arid region of northwest China were analyzed to investigate changes in annual runoff during the period of 1960-2009. The nonparametric Mann-Kendall test and the Mann-Kendall-Sneyers test were used to identify trend and step change point in the annual runoff. It was found that the basin had a significant increasing trend in annual runoff. Step change point in annual runoff was identified in the basin, which occurred in the year around 1993 dividing the long-term runoff series into a natural period (1960-1993) and a human-induced period (1994-2009). Then, the hydrologic sensitivity analysis method was employed to evaluate the effects of climate variability and human activities on mean annual runoff for the human-induced period based on precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. In 1994-2009, climate variability was the main factor that increased runoff with contribution of 90.5 %, while the increasing percentage due to human activities only accounted for 9.5 %, showing that runoff in the Kaidu River Basin is more sensitive to climate variability than human activities. This study quantitatively distinguishes the effects between climate variability and human activities on runoff, which can do duty for a reference for regional water resources assessment and management.

Stochastic variation in avian survival rates: Life-history predictions, population consequences, and the potential responses to human perturbations and climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schmutz, Joel A.; Thomson, David L.; Cooch, Evan G.; Conroy, Michael J.

2009-01-01

Stochastic variation in survival rates is expected to decrease long-term population growth rates. This expectation influences both life-history theory and the conservation of species. From this expectation, Pfister (1998) developed the important life-history prediction that natural selection will have minimized variability in those elements of the annual life cycle (such as adult survival rate) with high sensitivity. This prediction has not been rigorously evaluated for bird populations, in part due to statistical difficulties related to variance estimation. I here overcome these difficulties, and in an analysis of 62 populations, I confirm her prediction by showing a negative relationship between the proportional sensitivity (elasticity) of adult survival and the proportional variance (CV) of adult survival. However, several species deviated significantly from this expectation, with more process variance in survival than predicted. For instance, projecting the magnitude of process variance in annual survival for American redstarts (Setophaga ruticilla) for 25 years resulted in a 44% decline in abundance without assuming any change in mean survival rate. For most of these species with high process variance, recent changes in harvest, habitats, or changes in climate patterns are the likely sources of environmental variability causing this variability in survival. Because of climate change, environmental variability is increasing on regional and global scales, which is expected to increase stochasticity in vital rates of species. Increased stochasticity in survival will depress population growth rates, and this result will magnify the conservation challenges we face.

Impact of socio-demographic factors on the mitigating actions for climate change: a path analysis with mediating effects of attitudinal variables.

PubMed

Masud, Muhammad Mehedi; Akhatr, Rulia; Nasrin, Shamima; Adamu, Ibrahim Mohammed

2017-12-01

Socio-demographic factors play a significant role in increasing the individual's climate change awareness and in setting a favorable individual attitude towards its mitigation. To better understand how the adversative effects of climate change can be mitigated, this study attempts to investigate the impact of socio-demographic factors on the mitigating actions of the individuals (MAOI) on climate change. Qualitative data were collected from a face-to-face survey of 360 respondents in the Kuala Lumpur region of Malaysia through a close-ended questionnaire. Analysis was conducted on the mediating effects of attitudinal variables through the path model by using the SEM. Findings indicate that the socio-demographic factors such as gender, age, education, income, and ethnicity can greatly influence the individual's awareness, attitude, risk perception, and knowledge of climate change issues. The results drawn from this study also revealed that the attitudinal factors act as a mediating effect between the socio-demographic factors and the MAOI, thereby, indicating that both the socio-demographic factors and the attitudinal factors have significant effects on the MAOI towards climate change. The outcome of this study can help policy makers and other private organizations to decide on the appropriate actions to take in managing climate change effects. These actions which encompass improving basic climate change education and making the public more aware of the local dimensions of climate change are important for harnessing public engagement and support that can also stimulate climate change awareness and promote mitigating actions to n protect the environment from the impact of climate change.

Optical Coherence Tomography Measurements and Analysis Methods in Optical Coherence Tomography Studies of Diabetic Macular Edema

PubMed Central

Browning, David J.; Glassman, Adam R.; Aiello, Lloyd P.; Bressler, Neil M.; Bressler, Susan; Danis, Ronald P.; Davis, Matthew D.; Ferris, Frederick L.; Huang, Suber S.; Kaiser, Peter K.; Kollman, Craig; Sadda, Srinavas; Scott, Ingrid U.; Qin, Haijing

2009-01-01

Objective To evaluate optical coherence tomography (OCT) measurements and methods of analysis of OCT data in studies of diabetic macular edema (DME). Design Associations of pairs of OCT variables and results of three analysis methods using data from two studies of DME. Participants Two hundred sixty-three subjects from a study of modified Early Treatment of Diabetic Retinopathy Study (mETDRS) versus modified macular grid (MMG) photocoagulation for DME and 96 subjects from a study of diurnal variation of DME. Methods Correlations were calculated for pairs of OCT variables at baseline and for changes in the variables over time. Distribution of OCT measurement changes, predictive factors for OCT measurement changes, and treatment group outcomes were compared when three measures of change in macular thickness were analyzed: absolute change in retinal thickness, relative change in retinal thickness, and relative change in retinal thickening. Main Outcome Measures Concordance of results using different OCT variables and analysis methods. Results Center point thickness correlated highly with central subfield mean thickness (CSMT) at baseline (0.98–0.99). The distributions of changes in CSMT were approximately normally distributed for absolute change in retinal thickness and relative change in retinal thickness, but not for relative change in retinal thickening. The macular thinning in the mETDRS group was significantly greater than in the MMG group when absolute change in retinal thickness was used, but not when relative change in thickness and relative change in thickening were used. Relative change in macular thickening provides unstable data in eyes with mild degrees of baseline thickening, unlike the situation with absolute or relative change in retinal thickness. Conclusions Central subfield mean thickness is the preferred OCT measurement for the central macula because of its higher reproducibility and correlation with other measurements of the central macula. Total macular volume may be preferred when the central macula is less important. Absolute change in retinal thickness is the preferred analysis method in studies involving eyes with mild macular thickening. Relative change in thickening may be preferable when retinal thickening is more severe. PMID:18675696

Optical coherence tomography measurements and analysis methods in optical coherence tomography studies of diabetic macular edema.

PubMed

Browning, David J; Glassman, Adam R; Aiello, Lloyd P; Bressler, Neil M; Bressler, Susan B; Danis, Ronald P; Davis, Matthew D; Ferris, Frederick L; Huang, Suber S; Kaiser, Peter K; Kollman, Craig; Sadda, Srinavas; Scott, Ingrid U; Qin, Haijing

2008-08-01

To evaluate optical coherence tomography (OCT) measurements and methods of analysis of OCT data in studies of diabetic macular edema (DME). Associations of pairs of OCT variables and results of 3 analysis methods using data from 2 studies of DME. Two hundred sixty-three subjects from a study of modified Early Treatment of Diabetic Retinopathy Study (mETDRS) versus modified macular grid (MMG) photocoagulation for DME and 96 subjects from a study of diurnal variation of DME. Correlations were calculated for pairs of OCT variables at baseline and for changes in the variables over time. Distribution of OCT measurement changes, predictive factors for OCT measurement changes, and treatment group outcomes were compared when 3 measures of change in macular thickness were analyzed: absolute change in retinal thickness, relative change in retinal thickness, and relative change in retinal thickening. Concordance of results using different OCT variables and analysis methods. Center point thickness correlated highly with central subfield mean thickness (CSMT) at baseline (0.98-0.99). The distributions of changes in CSMT were approximately normally distributed for absolute change in retinal thickness and relative change in retinal thickness, but not for relative change in retinal thickening. Macular thinning in the mETDRS group was significantly greater than in the MMG group when absolute change in retinal thickness was used, but not when relative change in thickness and relative change in thickening were used. Relative change in macular thickening provides unstable data in eyes with mild degrees of baseline thickening, unlike the situation with absolute or relative change in retinal thickness. Central subfield mean thickness is the preferred OCT measurement for the central macula because of its higher reproducibility and correlation with other measurements of the central macula. Total macular volume may be preferred when the central macula is less important. Absolute change in retinal thickness is the preferred analysis method in studies involving eyes with mild macular thickening. Relative change in thickening may be preferable when retinal thickening is more severe.

Importance of scale, land cover, and weather on the abundance of bird species in a managed forest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grinde, Alexis R.; Hiemi, Gerald J.; Sturtevant, Brian R.; Panci, Hannah; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Wolter, Peter

2017-01-01

Climate change and habitat loss are projected to be the two greatest drivers of biodiversity loss over the coming century. While public lands have the potential to increase regional resilience of bird populations to these threats, long-term data are necessary to document species responses to changes in climate and habitat to better understand population vulnerabilities. We used generalized linear mixed models to determine the importance of stand-level characteristics, multi-scale land cover, and annual weather factors to the abundance of 61 bird species over a 20-year time frame in Chippewa National Forest, Minnesota, USA. Of the 61 species modeled, we were able to build final models with R-squared values that ranged from 26% to 69% for 37 species; the remaining 24 species models had issues with convergence or low explanatory power (R-squared < 20%). Models for the 37 species show that stand-level characteristics, land cover factors, and annual weather effects on species abundance were species-specific and varied within guilds. Forty-one percent of the final species models included stand-level characteristics, 92% included land cover variables at the 200 m scale, 51% included land cover variables at the 500 m scale, 46% included land cover variables at the 1000 m scale, and 38% included weather variables in best models. Three species models (8%) included significant weather and land cover interaction terms. Overall, models indicated that aboveground tree biomass and land cover variables drove changes in the majority of species. Of those species models including weather variables, more included annual variation in precipitation or drought than temperature. Annual weather variability was significantly more likely to impact abundance of species associated with deciduous forests and bird species that are considered climate sensitive. The long-term data and models we developed are particularly suited to informing science-based adaptive forest management plans that incorporate climate sensitivity, aim to conserve large areas of forest habitat, and maintain an historical mosaic of cover types for conserving a diverse and abundant avian assemblage.

Resilience, rapid transitions and regime shifts: fingerprinting the responses of Lake Żabińskie (NE Poland) to climate variability and human disturbance since 1000 AD

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tylmann, Wojciech; Hernández-Almeida, Iván; Grosjean, Martin; José Gómez Navarro, Juan; Larocque-Tobler, Isabelle; Bonk, Alicja; Enters, Dirk; Ustrzycka, Alicja; Piotrowska, Natalia; Przybylak, Rajmund; Wacnik, Agnieszka; Witak, Małgorzata

2016-04-01

Rapid ecosystem transitions and adverse effects on ecosystem services as responses to combined climate and human impacts are of major concern. Yet few quantitative observational data exist, particularly for ecosystems that have a long history of human intervention. Here, we combine quantitative summer and winter climate reconstructions, climate model simulations and proxies for three major environmental pressures (land use, nutrients and erosion) to explore the system dynamics, resilience, and the role of disturbance regimes in varved eutrophic Lake Żabińskie since AD 1000. Comparison between regional and global climate simulations and quantitative climate reconstructions indicate that proxy data capture noticeably natural forced climate variability, while internal variability appears as the dominant source of climate variability in the climate model simulations during most parts of the last millennium. Using different multivariate analyses and change point detection techniques, we identify ecosystem changes through time and shifts between rather stable states and highly variable ones, as expressed by the proxies for land-use, erosion and productivity in the lake. Prior to AD 1600, the lake ecosystem was characterized by a high stability and resilience against considerable observed natural climate variability. In contrast, lake-ecosystem conditions started to fluctuate at high frequency across a broad range of states after AD 1600. The period AD 1748-1868 represents the phase with the strongest human disturbance of the ecosystem. Analyses of the frequency of change points in the multi-proxy dataset suggests that the last 400 years were highly variable and flickering with increasing vulnerability of the ecosystem to the combined effects of climate variability and anthropogenic disturbances. This led to significant rapid ecosystem transformations.

Surface atrial frequency analysis in patients with atrial fibrillation: a tool for evaluating the effects of intervention.

PubMed

Raine, Dan; Langley, Philip; Murray, Alan; Dunuwille, Asunga; Bourke, John P

2004-09-01

The aims of this study were to evaluate (1) principal component analysis as a technique for extracting the atrial signal waveform from the standard 12-lead ECG and (2) its ability to distinguish changes in atrial fibrillation (AF) frequency parameters over time and in response to pharmacologic manipulation using drugs with different effects on atrial electrophysiology. Twenty patients with persistent AF were studied. Continuous 12-lead Holter ECGs were recorded for 60 minutes, first, in the drug-free state. Mean and variability of atrial waveform frequency were measured using an automated computer technique. This extracted the atrial signal by principal component analysis and identified the main frequency component using Fourier analysis. Patients were then allotted sequentially to receive 1 of 4 drugs intravenously (amiodarone, flecainide, sotalol, or metoprolol), and changes induced in mean and variability of atrial waveform frequency measured. Mean and variability of atrial waveform frequency did not differ within patients between the two 30-minute sections of the drug-free state. As hypothesized, significant changes in mean and variability of atrial waveform frequency were detected after manipulation with amiodarone (mean: 5.77 vs 4.86 Hz; variability: 0.55 vs 0.31 Hz), flecainide (mean: 5.33 vs 4.72 Hz; variability: 0.71 vs 0.31 Hz), and sotalol (mean: 5.94 vs 4.90 Hz; variability: 0.73 vs 0.40 Hz) but not with metoprolol (mean: 5.41 vs 5.17 Hz; variability: 0.81 vs 0.82 Hz). A technique for continuously analyzing atrial frequency characteristics of AF from the surface ECG has been developed and validated.

The Contribution of Vegetation and Landscape Configuration for Predicting Environmental Change Impacts on Iberian Birds

PubMed Central

Triviño, Maria; Thuiller, Wilfried; Cabeza, Mar; Hickler, Thomas; Araújo, Miguel B.

2011-01-01

Although climate is known to be one of the key factors determining animal species distributions amongst others, projections of global change impacts on their distributions often rely on bioclimatic envelope models. Vegetation structure and landscape configuration are also key determinants of distributions, but they are rarely considered in such assessments. We explore the consequences of using simulated vegetation structure and composition as well as its associated landscape configuration in models projecting global change effects on Iberian bird species distributions. Both present-day and future distributions were modelled for 168 bird species using two ensemble forecasting methods: Random Forests (RF) and Boosted Regression Trees (BRT). For each species, several models were created, differing in the predictor variables used (climate, vegetation, and landscape configuration). Discrimination ability of each model in the present-day was then tested with four commonly used evaluation methods (AUC, TSS, specificity and sensitivity). The different sets of predictor variables yielded similar spatial patterns for well-modelled species, but the future projections diverged for poorly-modelled species. Models using all predictor variables were not significantly better than models fitted with climate variables alone for ca. 50% of the cases. Moreover, models fitted with climate data were always better than models fitted with landscape configuration variables, and vegetation variables were found to correlate with bird species distributions in 26–40% of the cases with BRT, and in 1–18% of the cases with RF. We conclude that improvements from including vegetation and its landscape configuration variables in comparison with climate only variables might not always be as great as expected for future projections of Iberian bird species. PMID:22216263

Rainfall variability over southern Africa: an overview of current research using satellite and climate model data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, C.; Kniveton, D.; Layberry, R.

2009-04-01

It is increasingly accepted that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. A change in the distribution and magnitude of extreme rainfall events (associated with changing variability), such as droughts or flooding, may have a far greater impact on human and natural systems than a changing mean. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The subcontinent is considered especially vulnerable to and ill-equipped (in terms of adaptation) for extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, famine, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. In this research, satellite-derived rainfall data are used as a basis for undertaking model experiments using a state-of-the-art climate model, run at both high and low spatial resolution. Once the model's ability to reproduce extremes has been assessed, idealised regions of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are used to force the model, with the overall aim of investigating the ways in which SST anomalies influence rainfall extremes over southern Africa. In this paper, a brief overview is given of the authors' research to date, pertaining to southern African rainfall. This covers (i) a description of present-day rainfall variability over southern Africa; (ii) a comparison of model simulated daily rainfall with the satellite-derived dataset; (iii) results from sensitivity testing of the model's domain size; and (iv) results from the idealised SST experiments.

Variability of alpha-tocopherol values associated with procurement, storage, and freezing of equine serum and plasma samples.

PubMed

Craig, A M; Blythe, L L; Rowe, K E; Lassen, E D; Barrington, R; Walker, K C

1992-12-01

Recent evidence concerning the pathogenesis of equine degenerative myeloencephalopathy indicated that low blood alpha-tocopherol values are a factor in the disease process. Variables that could be introduced by a veterinarian procuring, transporting, or storing samples were evaluated for effects on alpha-tocopherol concentration in equine blood. These variables included temperature; light; exposure to the rubber stopper of the evacuated blood collection tube; hemolysis; duration of freezing time, with and without nitrogen blanketing; and repeated freeze/thaw cycles. It was found that hemolysis caused the greatest change in high-performance liquid chromatography-measured serum alpha-tocopherol values, with mean decrease of 33% (P < 0.001). Lesser, but significant (P < 0.01) changes in serum alpha-tocopherol values were an approximate 10% decrease when refrigerated blood was left in contact with the red rubber stopper of the blood collection tube for 72 hours and an approximate 5% increase when blood was stored at 20 to 25 C (room temperature) for 72 hours. Repeated freeze/thaw cycles resulted in a significant (P < 0.05) 3% decrease in alpha-tocopherol values in heparinized plasma by the third thawing cycle. Freezer storage for a 3-month period without nitrogen blanketing resulted in slight (2%) decrease in mean serum alpha-tocopherol values, whereas values in serum stored for an identical period under nitrogen blanketing did not change. A significant (P < 0.001) mean decrease (10.3%) in alpha-tocopherol values was associated with freezer (-16 C) storage of nitrogen blanketed serum for 6 months.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Changes in mental health services and suicide mortality in Norway: an ecological study

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Mental disorders are strongly associated with excess suicide risk, and successful treatment might prevent suicide. Since 1990, and particularly after 1998, there has been a substantial increase in mental health service resources in Norway. This study aimed to investigate whether these changes have had an impact on suicide mortality. Methods We used Poisson regression analyses to assess the effect of changes in five mental health services variables on suicide mortality in five Norwegian health regions during the period 1990-2006. These variables included: number of man-labour years by all personnel, number of discharges, number of outpatient consultations, number of inpatient days, and number of hospital beds. Adjustments were made for sales of alcohol, sales of antidepressants, education, and unemployment. Results In the period 1990-2006, we observed a total of 9480 suicides and the total suicide rate declined by 26%. None of the mental health services variables were significantly associated with female or male suicide mortality in the adjusted analyses (p > 0.05). Sales of antidepressants (adjusted Incidence Rate Ratio = 0.98; 95% CI = 0.97-1.00) and sales of alcohol (adjusted IRR = 1.41; 95% CI = 1.18-1.72) were significantly associated with female suicide mortality; education (adjusted IRR = 0.86; 95% CI = 0.79-0.94) and unemployment (adjusted IRR = 0.91; 95% CI = 0.85-0.97) were significantly associated with male suicide mortality. Conclusions The adjusted analyses in the present study indicate that increased resources in Norwegian mental health services in the period 1990-2006 were statistically unrelated to suicide mortality. PMID:21443801

High-resolution multi-model projections of onshore wind resources over Portugal under a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nogueira, Miguel; Soares, Pedro M. M.; Tomé, Ricardo; Cardoso, Rita M.

2018-05-01

We present a detailed evaluation of wind energy density (WED) over Portugal, based on the EURO-CORDEX database of high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) simulations. Most RCMs showed reasonable accuracy in reproducing the observed near-surface wind speed. The climatological patterns of WED displayed large sub-regional heterogeneity, with higher values over coastal regions and steep orography. Subsequently, we investigated the future changes of WED throughout the twenty-first century, considering mid- and end-century periods, and two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). On the yearly average, the multi-model ensemble WED changes were below 10% (15%) under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5). However, the projected WED anomalies displayed strong seasonality, dominated by low positive values in summer (< 10% for both scenarios), negative values in winter and spring (up to - 10% (- 20%) under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5)), and stronger negative anomalies in autumn (up to - 25% (- 35%) under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5)). These projected WED anomalies displayed large sub-regional variability. The largest reductions (and lowest increases) are linked to the northern and central-eastern elevated terrain, and the southwestern coast. In contrast, the largest increases (and lowest reductions) are linked to the central-western orographic features of moderate elevation. The projections also showed changes in inter-annual variability of WED, with small increases for annual averages, but with distinct behavior when considering year-to-year variability over a specific season: small increases in winter, larger increases in summer, slight decrease in autumn, and no relevant change in spring. The changes in inter-annual variability also displayed strong dependence on the underlying terrain. Finally, we found significant model spread in the magnitude of projected WED anomalies and inter-annual variability, affecting even the signal of the changes.

Extreme events, trends, and variability in Northern Hemisphere lake-ice phenology (1855-2005)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Benson, Barbara J.; Magnuson, John J.; Jensen, Olaf P.; Card, Virginia M.; Hodgkins, Glenn; Korhonen, Johanna; Livingstone, David M.; Stewart, Kenton M.; Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A.; Granin, Nick G.

2012-01-01

Often extreme events, more than changes in mean conditions, have the greatest impact on the environment and human well-being. Here we examine changes in the occurrence of extremes in the timing of the annual formation and disappearance of lake ice in the Northern Hemisphere. Both changes in the mean condition and in variability around the mean condition can alter the probability of extreme events. Using long-term ice phenology data covering two periods 1855–6 to 2004–5 and 1905–6 to 2004–5 for a total of 75 lakes, we examined patterns in long-term trends and variability in the context of understanding the occurrence of extreme events. We also examined patterns in trends for a 30-year subset (1975–6 to 2004–5) of the 100-year data set. Trends for ice variables in the recent 30-year period were steeper than those in the 100- and 150-year periods, and trends in the 150-year period were steeper than in the 100-year period. Ranges of rates of change (days per decade) among time periods based on linear regression were 0.3−1.6 later for freeze, 0.5−1.9 earlier for breakup, and 0.7−4.3 shorter for duration. Mostly, standard deviation did not change, or it decreased in the 150-year and 100-year periods. During the recent 50-year period, standard deviation calculated in 10-year windows increased for all ice measures. For the 150-year and 100-year periods changes in the mean ice dates rather than changes in variability most strongly influenced the significant increases in the frequency of extreme lake ice events associated with warmer conditions and decreases in the frequency of extreme events associated with cooler conditions.

Urban green land cover changes and their relation to climatic variables in an anthropogenically impacted area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zoran, Maria A.; Dida, Adrian I.

2017-10-01

Urban green areas are experiencing rapid land cover change caused by human-induced land degradation and extreme climatic events. Vegetation index time series provide a useful way to monitor urban vegetation phenological variations. This study quantitatively describes Normalized Difference Vegetation Index NDVI) /Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) and Leaf Area Index (LAI) temporal changes for Bucharest metropolitan region land cover in Romania from the perspective of vegetation phenology and its relation with climate changes and extreme climate events. The time series from 2000 to 2016 of the NOAA AVHRR and MODIS Terra/Aqua satellite data were analyzed to extract anomalies. Time series of climatic variables were also analyzed through anomaly detection techniques and the Fourier Transform. Correlations between NDVI/EVI time series and climatic variables were computed. Temperature, rainfall and radiation were significantly correlated with almost all land-cover classes for the harmonic analysis amplitude term. However, vegetation phenology was not correlated with climatic variables for the harmonic analysis phase term suggesting a delay between climatic variations and vegetation response. Training and validation were based on a reference dataset collected from IKONOS high resolution remote sensing data. The mean detection accuracy for period 2000- 2016 was assessed to be of 87%, with a reasonable balance between change commission errors (19.3%), change omission errors (24.7%), and Kappa coefficient of 0.73. This paper demonstrates the potential of moderate - and high resolution, multispectral imagery to map and monitor the evolution of the physical urban green land cover under climate and anthropogenic pressure.

WEATHER RELATED VARIABILITY OF CALORIMETERY PERFORMANCE IN A POORLY CONTROLLED ENVIRONMENT

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

CAMERON, M.A.

2007-04-16

Four Antech airbath calorimeters at the Hanford site were studied for three summers and two winters in a location not well-shielded from outside temperature changes. All calorimeters showed significant increases in variability of standard measurements during hot weather. The increased variability is postulated to be due to a low setting of the Peltier cold face temperature, which doesn't allow the instrument to drain heat fast enough in a hot environment. A higher setting of the Peltier cold face might lead to better performance in environments subjected to a broad range of temperatures.

WEATHER RELATED VARIABILITY OF CALORIMETERY PERFORMANCE IN A POORLY CONTROLLED ENVIRONMENT

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

CAMERON, M.A.

2007-04-16

Four Antech airbath calorimeters at the Hanford site were studied for three summers and two winters in a location not well-shielded from outside temperature changes. Calorimeters showed significant increases in variability of standard measurements during hot weather. The increased variability is postulated to be due to a low setting of the Peltier cold face temperature, which doesn't allow the instrument to drain heat fast enough in a hot environment. A higher setting of the Peltier cold face might lead to better performance in environments subjected to a broad range of temperatures.

Millennial-scale variability in the local radiocarbon reservoir age of south Florida during the Holocene

USGS Publications Warehouse

Toth, Lauren T.; Cheng, Hai; Edwards, R. Lawrence; Ashe, Erica; Richey, Julie N.

2017-01-01

A growing body of research suggests that the marine environments of south Florida provide a critical link between the tropical and high-latitude Atlantic. Changes in the characteristics of water masses off south Florida may therefore have important implications for our understanding of climatic and oceanographic variability over a broad spatial scale; however, the sources of variability within this oceanic corridor remain poorly understood. Measurements of ΔR, the local offset of the radiocarbon reservoir age, from shallow-water marine environments can serve as a powerful tracer of water-mass sources that can be used to reconstruct variability in local-to regional-scale oceanography and hydrology. We combined radiocarbon and U-series measurements of Holocene-aged corals from the shallow-water environments of the Florida Keys reef tract (FKRT) with robust statistical modeling to quantify the millennial-scale variability in ΔR at locations with (“nearshore”) and without (“open ocean”) substantial terrestrial influence. Our reconstructions demonstrate that there was significant spatial and temporal variability in ΔR on the FKRT during the Holocene. Whereas ΔR was similar throughout the region after ∼4000 years ago, nearshore ΔR was significantly higher than in the open ocean during the middle Holocene. We suggest that the elevated nearshore ΔR from ∼8000 to 5000 years ago was most likely the result of greater groundwater influence associated with lower sea level at this time. In the open ocean, which would have been isolated from the influence of groundwater, ΔR was lowest ∼7000 years ago, and was highest ∼3000 years ago. We evaluated our open-ocean model of ΔR variability against records of local-to regional-scale oceanography and conclude that local upwelling was not a significant driver of open-ocean radiocarbon variability in this region. Instead, the millennial-scale trends in open-ocean ΔR were more likely a result of broader-scale changes in western Atlantic circulation associated with an increase in the supply of equatorial South Atlantic water to the Caribbean and shifts in the character of South Atlantic waters resulting from variation in the intensity of upwelling off the southwest coast of Africa. Because accurate estimates of ΔR are critical to precise calibrations of radiocarbon dates from marine samples, we also developed models of nearshore and open-ocean ΔR versus conventional 14C ages that can be used for regional radiocarbon calibrations for the Holocene. Our study provides new insights into the patterns and drivers of oceanographic and hydrologic variability in the Straits of Florida and highlights the value of the paleoceanographic records from south Florida to our understanding of Holocene changes in climate and ocean circulation throughout the Atlantic.

Precipitation variability on global pasturelands may affect food security in livestock-dependent regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sloat, L.; Gerber, J. S.; Samberg, L. H.; Smith, W. K.; West, P. C.; Herrero, M.; Brendan, P.; Cecile, G.; Katharina, W.; Smith, W. K.

2016-12-01

The need to feed an increasing number of people while maintaining biodiversity and ecosystem services is one of the key challenges currently facing humanity. Livestock systems are likely to be a crucial piece of this puzzle, as urbanization and changing diets in much of the world lead to increases in global meat consumption. This predicted increase in global demand for livestock products will challenge the ability of pastures and rangelands to maintain or increase their productivity. The majority of people that depend on animal production for food security do so through grazing and herding on natural rangelands, and these systems make a significant contribution to global production of meat and milk. The vegetation dynamics of natural forage are highly dependent on climate, and subject to disruption with changes in climate and climate variability. Precipitation heterogeneity has been linked to the ecosystem dynamics of grazing lands through impacts on livestock carrying capacity and grassland degradation potential. Additionally, changes in precipitation variability are linked to the increased incidence of extreme events (e.g. droughts, floods) that negatively impact food production and food security. Here, we use the inter-annual coefficient of variation (CV) of precipitation as a metric to assess climate risk on global pastures. Comparisons of global satellite measures of vegetation greenness to climate reveal that the CV of precipitation is negatively related to mean annual NDVI, such that areas with low year-to-year precipitation variability have the highest measures of vegetation greenness, and vice versa. Furthermore, areas with high CV of precipitation support lower livestock densities and produce less meat. A sliding window analysis of changes in CV of precipitation over the last century shows that, overall, precipitation variability is increasing in global pasture areas, although global maps reveal a patchwork of both positive and negative changes. We use this information to identify regions in which changes in the variability of precipitation may already be affecting the ability of grazing systems to support intensified livestock production, and assess the potential impacts of those changes on pasture productivity.

Predictors of self-reported negative mood following a depressive mood induction procedure across previously depressed, currently anxious, and control individuals.

PubMed

Scherrer, Martin C; Dobson, Keith S; Quigley, Leanne

2014-09-01

This study identified and examined a set of potential predictors of self-reported negative mood following a depressive mood induction procedure (MIP) in a sample of previously depressed, clinically anxious, and control participants. The examined predictor variables were selected on the basis of previous research and theories of depression, and included symptoms of depression and anxiety, negative and positive affect, negative and positive automatic thoughts, dysfunctional beliefs, rumination, self-concept, and occurrence and perceived unpleasantness of recent negative events. The sample consisted of 33 previously depressed, 22 currently anxious, and 26 non-clinical control participants, recruited from community sources. Participant group status was confirmed through structured diagnostic interviews. Participants completed the Velten negative self-statement MIP as well as self-report questionnaires of affective, cognitive, and psychosocial variables selected as potential predictors of mood change. Symptoms of anxiety were associated with increased self-reported negative mood shift following the MIP in previously depressed participants, but not clinically anxious or control participants. Increased occurrence of recent negative events was a marginally significant predictor of negative mood shift for the previously depressed participants only. None of the other examined variables was significant predictors of MIP response for any of the participant groups. These results identify factors that may increase susceptibility to negative mood states in previously depressed individuals, with implications for theory and prevention of relapse to depression. The findings also identify a number of affective, cognitive, and psychosocial variables that do not appear to influence mood change following a depressive MIP in previously depressed, currently anxious, and control individuals. Limitations of the study and directions for future research are discussed. Current anxiety symptomatology was a significant predictor and occurrence of recent negative events was a marginally significant predictor of greater negative mood shift following the depressive mood induction for previously depressed individuals. None of the examined variables predicted change in mood following the depressive mood induction for currently anxious or control individuals. These results suggest that anxiety symptoms and experience with negative events may increase risk for experiencing depressive mood states among individuals with a vulnerability to depression. The generalizability of the present results to individuals with comorbid depression and anxiety is limited. Future research employing appropriate statistical approaches for confirmatory research is needed to test and confirm the present results. © 2014 The British Psychological Society.

Divorce: different experiences of men and women.

PubMed

Wadsby, M; Svedin, C G

1992-12-01

Demographic variables, the reasons for the divorce, the changes as a consequence of the divorce and the differences between the sexes were studied among 157 Swedish-speaking spouses through interviews and assessments on visual analogue scales. The results showed that various conflicts were the main reason for the divorce in half of the families. Compared to men, women came significantly more often from broken homes, were the initiators of the divorce in most cases, and felt that the marriage had been dissatisfying for a significantly longer time period. Self-employed men were significantly overrepresented. The changes as a consequence of the divorce were significantly different for men and women in several areas, in most cases in favour of the women.

Astigmatism at nearpoint: adventitious, purposeful, and environmental influences.

PubMed

Nicholson, S B; Garzia, R P

1988-12-01

Previous studies indicate that a number of individuals display significant differences between astigmatism measured at farpoint and nearpoint. Adventitious effects, purposeful lenticular changes and adaptations in response to environmental forces are reviewed as possible sources of this astigmatic variability.

The Watcombe housing study: the short-term effect of improving housing conditions on the indoor environment.

PubMed

Richardson, George; Barton, Andrew; Basham, Meryl; Foy, Chris; Eick, Susan Ann; Somerville, Margaret

2006-05-15

A three-year study (1999-2001) was initiated in the UK to assess the effect of improving housing conditions in 3-4 bedroom, single-family unit, social rented sector houses on the health of the occupants. The houses were randomised into two groups. Phase I houses received extensive upgrading including wet central heating, on demand ventilation, double-glazed doors, cavity wall and roof/loft insulation. An identical intervention for Phase II houses was delayed for one year. As part of this randomised waiting list study, discrete measurements were made of indoor environmental variables in each house, to assess the short-term effects of improving housing conditions on the indoor environment. Variables representative of indoor environmental conditions were measured in the living room, bedroom and outdoors in each of the three years of the study. In 2000, there was a significant difference between the changes from 1999 to 2000 between Phase I (upgraded) and II (not then upgraded) houses for bedroom temperatures (p=0.002). Changes in wall surface dampness and wall dampness in Phase I houses were also significantly different to the change in Phase II houses in 2000 (p=0.001), but by 2001 the Phase I houses had reverted to the same dampness levels they had before upgrading. The housing upgrades increased bedroom temperatures in all houses. Other indoor environmental variables were not affected.

Regional Changes in Earths Color and Texture as Observed From Space Over a 15-Year Period

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhao, Guangyu; Di Girolamo, Larry; Diner, David J.; Bruegge, Carol J.; Mueller, Kevin J.; Wu, Dong L.

2016-01-01

Earth-observing satellites provide global observations of many geophysical variables. As these variables are derived from measured radiances, the underlying radiance data are the most reliable sources of information for change detection. Here, we identify statistically significant trends in the color and spatial texture of the Earth as viewed from multiple directions from the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR), which has been sampling the angular distribution of scattered sunlight since 2000. Globally, our results show that the Earth has been appearing relatively bluer (up to 1.6 % per decade from both nadir and oblique views) and smoother (up to 1.5 % per decade only from oblique views) over the past 15 years. The magnitude of the global blueing trends is comparable to that of uncertainties in radiometric calibration stability. Regional shifts in color and texture, which are significantly larger than global means, are observed, particularly over polar regions, along the boundaries of the subtropical highs, the tropical western Pacific, Southwestern Asia, and Australia. We demonstrate that the large regional trends cannot be explained either by uncertainties in radiometric calibration or variability in total or spectral solar irradiance; hence, they reflect changes internal to the Earths climate system. The 15-year-mean true color composites and texture images of the Earth at both nadir and oblique views are also presented for the first time.

Understanding adolescent response to a technology-based depression prevention program.

PubMed

Gladstone, Tracy; Marko-Holguin, Monika; Henry, Jordan; Fogel, Joshua; Diehl, Anne; Van Voorhees, Benjamin W

2014-01-01

Guided by the Behavioral Vaccine Theory of prevention, this study uses a no-control group design to examine intervention variables that predict favorable changes in depressive symptoms at 6- to 8-week follow-up in at-risk adolescents who participated in a primary care, Internet-based prevention program. Participants included 83 adolescents from primary care settings ages 14 to 21 (M = 17.5, SD = 2.04), 56.2% female, with 41% non-White. Participants completed self-report measures, met with a physician, and then completed a 14-module Internet intervention targeting the prevention of depression. Linear regression models indicated that several intervention factors (duration on website in days, the strength of the relationship with the physician, perceptions of ease of use, and the perceived relevance of the material presented) were significantly associated with greater reductions in depressive symptoms from baseline to follow-up. Automatic negative thoughts significantly mediated the relation between change in depressive symptoms scores and both duration of use and physician relationship. Several intervention variables predicted favorable changes in depressive symptom scores among adolescents who participated in an Internet-based prevention program, and the strength of two of these variables was mediated by automatic negative thoughts. These findings support the importance of cognitive factors in preventing adolescent depression and suggest that modifiable aspects of technology-based intervention experience and relationships should be considered in optimizing intervention design.

Airborne Laser Altimetry Mapping of the Greenland Ice Sheet: Application to Mass Balance Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Abdalati, W.; Krabill, W.; Frederick, E.; Manizade, S.; Martin, C.; Sonntag, J.; Swift, R.; Thomas, R.; Wright, W.; Yungel, J.

2000-01-01

In 1998 and '99, the Arctic Ice Mapping (AIM) program completed resurveys of lines occupied 5 years earlier revealing elevation changes of the Greenland ice sheet and identifying areas of significant thinning, thickening and balance. In planning these surveys, consideration had to be given to the spatial constraints associated with aircraft operation, the spatial nature of ice sheet behavior, and limited resources, as well as temporal issues, such as seasonal and interannual variability in the context of measurement accuracy. This paper examines the extent to which the sampling and survey strategy is valid for drawing conclusions on the current state of balance of the Greenland ice sheet. The surveys covered the entire ice sheet with an average distance of 21.4 km between each location on the ice sheet and the nearest flight line. For most of the ice sheet, the elevation changes show relatively little spatial variability, and their magnitudes are significantly smaller than the observed elevation change signal. As a result, we conclude that the density of the sampling and the accuracy of the measurements are sufficient to draw meaningful conclusions on the state of balance of the entire ice sheet over the five-year survey period. Outlet glaciers, however, show far more spatial and temporal variability, and each of the major ones is likely to require individual surveys in order to determine its balance.

Remembrance of ecohydrologic extremes past

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Band, L. E.; Hwang, T.

2013-12-01

Ecohydrological systems operate at time scales that span several orders of magnitude. Significant processes and feedbacks range from subdaily physiologic response to meteorological drivers, to soil forming and geomorphic processes ranging up through 10^3-10^4 years. While much attention in ecohydrology has focused on ecosystem optimization paradigms, these systems can show significant transience in structure and function, with apparent memory of hydroclimate extremes and regime shifts. While optimization feedbacks can be reconciled with system transience, a better understanding of the time scales and mechanisms of adjustment to increased hydroclimate variability and to specific events is required to understand and predict dynamics and vulnerability of ecosystems. Under certain circumstances of slowly varying hydroclimate, we hypothesize that ecosystems can remain adjusted to changing climate regimes, without displaying apparent system memory. Alternatively, rapid changes in hydroclimate and increased hydroclimate variability, amplified with well expressed non-linearity in the processes controlling feedbacks between water, carbon and nutrients, can move ecosystems far from adjusted states. The Coweeta Hydrological Laboratory is typical of humid, broadleaf forests in eastern North America, with a range of forest biomes from northern hardwoods at higher elevations, to oak-pine assemblages at lower elevations. The site provides almost 80 years of rainfall-runoff records for a set of watersheds under different management, along with multi-decadal forest plot structural information, soil moisture conditions and stream chemistry. An initial period of multi-decadal cooling, was followed by three decades of warming and increased hydroclimate variability. While mean temperature has risen over this time period, precipitation shows no long term trends in the mean, but has had a significant rise in variability with repeated extreme drought and wet periods. Over this latter period, intra and interannual shifts of canopy structure and phenology are discernable, along with long term canopy adjustment. We use a combination of field observations, long term remote sensing records and distributed ecohydrological modeling to investigate transient behavior, apparent memory and mechanisms of ecosystem adjustment to hydroclimate variability and change over the range of biomes in the watershed.

"Deal justly with them ...": (in)justice in polygyny--the male perspective.

PubMed

Profanter, Annemarie; Cate, Stephanie Ryan

2009-06-01

The authors explored the concept of justice toward wives as perceived by polygynously married Bedouin-Arab husbands of three generations living in Southern Oman perceive it in relation to the following key variables: (a) overall evaluation of just treatment, (b) time, (c) finances and socioeconomic status, (d) emotional attachment, and (e) sexual contact. Findings indicate that the evaluation of just treatment is not significantly related to the variables of age, number of wives and children, living arrangements, educational attainment, emotional attachment, or monthly income. However, findings also suggest significant changes in husbands' sexual contact with wives because of remarriage. Moreover, the effect of remarriage on the socioeconomic status of families appears to have a significant effect on husbands' application of the concept of justice.

Patient satisfaction with psychotropic drugs: sensitivity to change and relationship to clinical status, quality-of-life, compliance and effectiveness of treatment. Results from a nation-wide 6-month prospective study.

PubMed

Gasquet, Isabelle; Tcherny-Lessenot, Stéphanie; Lépine, Jean-Pierre; Falissard, Bruno

2006-12-01

To see if patient satisfaction with psychotropics (PSP) could be used as a patient-oriented outcome variable in the evaluation of PSP drugs in clinical epidemiological studies, relationships between PSP, clinical status, QoL, compliance and the type of antipsychotic were analyzed. Elements of validation of PSP were also assessed. In a 6-month prospective study, 933 schizophrenic outpatients with initiation or change to their antipsychotic treatment were enrolled. Psychiatrists completed five CGI-SCH scales (positive, negative, cognitive, depressive and global), hospitalization, compliance, and prescription variables. Patients completed PSP, EuroQoL scales, sexual function and compliance variables. A satisfactory structural equation model was obtained showing significant relationships PSP/compliance (coef.=0.16), QoL/PSP (coef.=0.37), clinical status/QoL (coef.=0.61), clinical status/compliance (coef.=0.09). Patients receiving olanzapine were more satisfied than patients receiving other atypicals (coef.=012) and had better clinical status than patients treated with typicals (coef.=0.08). Evolution of PSP was related to clinical status, QoL, and continuation of treatment (all P<001). Sensitivity to change of PSP was moderate (effect size=0.2). PSP produced consistent results in relation to validated outcome variables. However, a single-item measure was not sufficiently sensitive to change. Multi-item questionnaires evaluating different dimensions are needed.

Changes in the aromatic profile of espresso coffee as a function of the grinding grade and extraction time: a study by the electronic nose system.

PubMed

Severini, C; Ricci, I; Marone, M; Derossi, A; De Pilli, T

2015-03-04

The changes in chemical attributes and aromatic profile of espresso coffee (EC) were studied taking into account the extraction time and grinding level as independent variables. Particularly, using an electronic nose system, the changes of the global aromatic profile of EC were highlighted. The results shown as the major amounts of organic acids, solids, and caffeine were extracted in the first 8 s of percolation. The grinding grade significantly affected the quality of EC probably as an effect of the particle size distribution and the percolation pathways of water through the coffee cake. The use of an electronic nose system allowed us to discriminate the fractions of the brew as a function of the percolation time and also the regular coffee obtained from different grinding grades. Particularly, the aromatic profile of a regular coffee (25 mL) was significantly affected by the grinding level of the coffee grounds and percolation time, which are two variables under the control of the bar operator.

Does preprocessing change nonlinear measures of heart rate variability?

PubMed

Gomes, Murilo E D; Guimarães, Homero N; Ribeiro, Antônio L P; Aguirre, Luis A

2002-11-01

This work investigated if methods used to produce a uniformly sampled heart rate variability (HRV) time series significantly change the deterministic signature underlying the dynamics of such signals and some nonlinear measures of HRV. Two methods of preprocessing were used: the convolution of inverse interval function values with a rectangular window and the cubic polynomial interpolation. The HRV time series were obtained from 33 Wistar rats submitted to autonomic blockade protocols and from 17 healthy adults. The analysis of determinism was carried out by the method of surrogate data sets and nonlinear autoregressive moving average modelling and prediction. The scaling exponents alpha, alpha(1) and alpha(2) derived from the detrended fluctuation analysis were calculated from raw HRV time series and respective preprocessed signals. It was shown that the technique of cubic interpolation of HRV time series did not significantly change any nonlinear characteristic studied in this work, while the method of convolution only affected the alpha(1) index. The results suggested that preprocessed time series may be used to study HRV in the field of nonlinear dynamics.

Evaluation of the significance of abrupt changes in precipitation and runoff process in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Ping; Wu, Ziyi; Sang, Yan-Fang; Gu, Haiting; Zhao, Yuxi; Singh, Vijay P.

2018-05-01

Abrupt changes are an important manifestation of hydrological variability. How to accurately detect the abrupt changes in hydrological time series and evaluate their significance is an important issue, but methods for dealing with them effectively are lacking. In this study, we propose an approach to evaluate the significance of abrupt changes in time series at five levels: no, weak, moderate, strong, and dramatic. The approach was based on an index of correlation coefficient calculated for the original time series and its abrupt change component. A bigger value of correlation coefficient reflects a higher significance level of abrupt change. Results of Monte-Carlo experiments verified the reliability of the proposed approach, and also indicated the great influence of statistical characteristics of time series on the significance level of abrupt change. The approach was derived from the relationship between correlation coefficient index and abrupt change, and can estimate and grade the significance levels of abrupt changes in hydrological time series. Application of the proposed approach to ten major watersheds in China showed that abrupt changes mainly occurred in five watersheds in northern China, which have arid or semi-arid climate and severe shortages of water resources. Runoff processes in northern China were more sensitive to precipitation change than those in southern China. Although annual precipitation and surface water resources amount (SWRA) exhibited a harmonious relationship in most watersheds, abrupt changes in the latter were more significant. Compared with abrupt changes in annual precipitation, human activities contributed much more to the abrupt changes in the corresponding SWRA, except for the Northwest Inland River watershed.

Dryland ecosystem responses to precipitation extremes and wildfire at a long-term rainfall manipulation experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, R. F.; Collins, S. L.

2017-12-01

Climate is becoming increasingly more variable due to global environmental change, which is evidenced by fewer, but more extreme precipitation events, changes in precipitation seasonality, and longer, higher severity droughts. These changes, combined with a rising incidence of wildfire, have the potential to strongly impact net primary production (NPP) and key biogeochemical cycles, particularly in dryland ecosystems where NPP is sequentially limited by water and nutrient availability. Here we utilize a ten-year dataset from an ongoing long-term field experiment established in 2007 in which we experimentally altered monsoon rainfall variability to examine how our manipulations, along with naturally occurring events, affect NPP and associated biogeochemical cycles in a semi-arid grassland in central New Mexico, USA. Using long-term regional averages, we identified extremely wet monsoon years (242.8 mm, 2013), and extremely dry monsoon years (86.0 mm, 2011; 80.0 mm, 2015) and water years (117.0 mm, 2011). We examined how changes in precipitation variability and extreme events affected ecosystem processes and function particularly in the context of ecosystem recovery following a 2009 wildfire. Response variables included above- and below-ground plant biomass (ANPP & BNPP) and abundance, soil nitrogen availability, and soil CO2 efflux. Mean ANPP ranged from 3.6 g m-2 in 2011 to 254.5 g m-2 in 2013, while BNPP ranged from 23.5 g m-2 in 2015 to 194.2 g m-2 in 2013, demonstrating NPP in our semi-arid grassland is directly linked to extremes in both seasonal and annual precipitation. We also show increased nitrogen deposition positively affects NPP in unburned grassland, but has no significant impact on NPP post-fire except during extremely wet monsoon years. While soil respiration rates reflect lower ANPP post-fire, patterns in CO2 efflux have not been shown to change significantly in that efflux is greatest following large precipitation events preceded by longer drying periods. Current land surface models poorly represent dryland ecosystems, which frequently undergo extreme weather events. Our long-term experiment provides key insights into ecosystem processes and function, thereby providing capacity for model improvement particularly in the context of future environmental change.

Nonlinear Variability of Body Sway in Patients with Phobic Postural Vertigo

PubMed Central

Schniepp, Roman; Wuehr, Max; Pradhan, Cauchy; Novozhilov, Sergej; Krafczyk, Siegbert; Brandt, Thomas; Jahn, Klaus

2013-01-01

Background: Subjective postural imbalance is a key symptom in the somatoform phobic postural vertigo (PPV). It has been assumed that more attentional control of body posture and / or co-contraction of leg muscles during standing is used to minimize the physiological body sway in PPV. Here we analyze nonlinear variability of body sway in patients with PPV in order to disclose changes in postural control strategy associated with PPV. Methods: Twenty patients with PPV and 20 age-matched healthy subjects (HS) were recorded on a stabilometer platform with eyes open (EO), eyes closed (EC), and while standing on a foam rubber with eyes closed (ECF). Spatio-temporal changes of the center of pressure (CoP) displacement were analyzed to assess the structure of postural variability by computing the scaling exponent α and the sample entropy (SEn) of the time series. Results: With EO on firm ground α and SEn of CoP displacement were significantly lower in patients (p < 0.001). For more difficult conditions (EC, ECF) postural variability in PPV assimilated to that of HS. Conclusion: Postural control in PPV patients differs from HS under normal stance condition. It is characterized by a reduced scaling behavior and higher regularity. These changes in the structure of postural variability might suggest an inappropriate attentional involvement with stabilizing strategies, which are used by HS only for more demanding balance tasks. PMID:23966974