Variable Stiffness Panel Structural Analyses With Material Nonlinearity and Correlation With Tests

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, K. Chauncey; Gurdal, Zafer

2006-01-01

Results from structural analyses of three tow-placed AS4/977-3 composite panels with both geometric and material nonlinearities are presented. Two of the panels have variable stiffness layups where the fiber orientation angle varies as a continuous function of location on the panel planform. One variable stiffness panel has overlapping tow bands of varying thickness, while the other has a theoretically uniform thickness. The third panel has a conventional uniform-thickness [plus or minus 45](sub 5s) layup with straight fibers, providing a baseline for comparing the performance of the variable stiffness panels. Parametric finite element analyses including nonlinear material shear are first compared with material characterization test results for two orthotropic layups. This nonlinear material model is incorporated into structural analysis models of the variable stiffness and baseline panels with applied end shortenings. Measured geometric imperfections and mechanical prestresses, generated by forcing the variable stiffness panels from their cured anticlastic shapes into their flatter test configurations, are also modeled. Results of these structural analyses are then compared to the measured panel structural response. Good correlation is observed between the analysis results and displacement test data throughout deep postbuckling up to global failure, suggesting that nonlinear material behavior is an important component of the actual panel structural response.

Variable structure control of nonlinear systems through simplified uncertain models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sira-Ramirez, Hebertt

1986-01-01

A variable structure control approach is presented for the robust stabilization of feedback equivalent nonlinear systems whose proposed model lies in the same structural orbit of a linear system in Brunovsky's canonical form. An attempt to linearize exactly the nonlinear plant on the basis of the feedback control law derived for the available model results in a nonlinearly perturbed canonical system for the expanded class of possible equivalent control functions. Conservatism tends to grow as modeling errors become larger. In order to preserve the internal controllability structure of the plant, it is proposed that model simplification be carried out on the open-loop-transformed system. As an example, a controller is developed for a single link manipulator with an elastic joint.

A Second-Order Conditionally Linear Mixed Effects Model with Observed and Latent Variable Covariates

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Harring, Jeffrey R.; Kohli, Nidhi; Silverman, Rebecca D.; Speece, Deborah L.

2012-01-01

A conditionally linear mixed effects model is an appropriate framework for investigating nonlinear change in a continuous latent variable that is repeatedly measured over time. The efficacy of the model is that it allows parameters that enter the specified nonlinear time-response function to be stochastic, whereas those parameters that enter in a…

Order Selection for General Expression of Nonlinear Autoregressive Model Based on Multivariate Stepwise Regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Jinfei; Zhu, Songqing; Chen, Ruwen

2017-12-01

An order selection method based on multiple stepwise regressions is proposed for General Expression of Nonlinear Autoregressive model which converts the model order problem into the variable selection of multiple linear regression equation. The partial autocorrelation function is adopted to define the linear term in GNAR model. The result is set as the initial model, and then the nonlinear terms are introduced gradually. Statistics are chosen to study the improvements of both the new introduced and originally existed variables for the model characteristics, which are adopted to determine the model variables to retain or eliminate. So the optimal model is obtained through data fitting effect measurement or significance test. The simulation and classic time-series data experiment results show that the method proposed is simple, reliable and can be applied to practical engineering.

Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Nonlinear Structural Equation Models with Ignorable Missing Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Sik-Yum; Song, Xin-Yuan; Lee, John C. K.

2003-01-01

The existing maximum likelihood theory and its computer software in structural equation modeling are established on the basis of linear relationships among latent variables with fully observed data. However, in social and behavioral sciences, nonlinear relationships among the latent variables are important for establishing more meaningful models…

Independence screening for high dimensional nonlinear additive ODE models with applications to dynamic gene regulatory networks.

PubMed

Xue, Hongqi; Wu, Shuang; Wu, Yichao; Ramirez Idarraga, Juan C; Wu, Hulin

2018-05-02

Mechanism-driven low-dimensional ordinary differential equation (ODE) models are often used to model viral dynamics at cellular levels and epidemics of infectious diseases. However, low-dimensional mechanism-based ODE models are limited for modeling infectious diseases at molecular levels such as transcriptomic or proteomic levels, which is critical to understand pathogenesis of diseases. Although linear ODE models have been proposed for gene regulatory networks (GRNs), nonlinear regulations are common in GRNs. The reconstruction of large-scale nonlinear networks from time-course gene expression data remains an unresolved issue. Here, we use high-dimensional nonlinear additive ODEs to model GRNs and propose a 4-step procedure to efficiently perform variable selection for nonlinear ODEs. To tackle the challenge of high dimensionality, we couple the 2-stage smoothing-based estimation method for ODEs and a nonlinear independence screening method to perform variable selection for the nonlinear ODE models. We have shown that our method possesses the sure screening property and it can handle problems with non-polynomial dimensionality. Numerical performance of the proposed method is illustrated with simulated data and a real data example for identifying the dynamic GRN of Saccharomyces cerevisiae. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Treatment Effect Estimation Using Nonlinear Two-Stage Instrumental Variable Estimators: Another Cautionary Note.

PubMed

Chapman, Cole G; Brooks, John M

2016-12-01

To examine the settings of simulation evidence supporting use of nonlinear two-stage residual inclusion (2SRI) instrumental variable (IV) methods for estimating average treatment effects (ATE) using observational data and investigate potential bias of 2SRI across alternative scenarios of essential heterogeneity and uniqueness of marginal patients. Potential bias of linear and nonlinear IV methods for ATE and local average treatment effects (LATE) is assessed using simulation models with a binary outcome and binary endogenous treatment across settings varying by the relationship between treatment effectiveness and treatment choice. Results show that nonlinear 2SRI models produce estimates of ATE and LATE that are substantially biased when the relationships between treatment and outcome for marginal patients are unique from relationships for the full population. Bias of linear IV estimates for LATE was low across all scenarios. Researchers are increasingly opting for nonlinear 2SRI to estimate treatment effects in models with binary and otherwise inherently nonlinear dependent variables, believing that it produces generally unbiased and consistent estimates. This research shows that positive properties of nonlinear 2SRI rely on assumptions about the relationships between treatment effect heterogeneity and choice. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

Non-Darcy flow of water-based carbon nanotubes with nonlinear radiation and heat generation/absorption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayat, T.; Ullah, Siraj; Khan, M. Ijaz; Alsaedi, A.; Zaigham Zia, Q. M.

2018-03-01

Here modeling and computations are presented to introduce the novel concept of Darcy-Forchheimer three-dimensional flow of water-based carbon nanotubes with nonlinear thermal radiation and heat generation/absorption. Bidirectional stretching surface induces the flow. Darcy's law is commonly replace by Forchheimer relation. Xue model is implemented for nonliquid transport mechanism. Nonlinear formulation based upon conservation laws of mass, momentum and energy is first modeled and then solved by optimal homotopy analysis technique. Optimal estimations of auxiliary variables are obtained. Importance of influential variables on the velocity and thermal fields is interpreted graphically. Moreover velocity and temperature gradients are discussed and analyzed. Physical interpretation of influential variables is examined.

A Bayesian Model for the Estimation of Latent Interaction and Quadratic Effects When Latent Variables Are Non-Normally Distributed

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kelava, Augustin; Nagengast, Benjamin

2012-01-01

Structural equation models with interaction and quadratic effects have become a standard tool for testing nonlinear hypotheses in the social sciences. Most of the current approaches assume normally distributed latent predictor variables. In this article, we present a Bayesian model for the estimation of latent nonlinear effects when the latent…

An efficient variable projection formulation for separable nonlinear least squares problems.

PubMed

Gan, Min; Li, Han-Xiong

2014-05-01

We consider in this paper a class of nonlinear least squares problems in which the model can be represented as a linear combination of nonlinear functions. The variable projection algorithm projects the linear parameters out of the problem, leaving the nonlinear least squares problems involving only the nonlinear parameters. To implement the variable projection algorithm more efficiently, we propose a new variable projection functional based on matrix decomposition. The advantage of the proposed formulation is that the size of the decomposed matrix may be much smaller than those of previous ones. The Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm using finite difference method is then applied to minimize the new criterion. Numerical results show that the proposed approach achieves significant reduction in computing time.

Stabilizing detached Bridgman melt crystal growth: Model-based nonlinear feedback control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yeckel, Andrew; Daoutidis, Prodromos; Derby, Jeffrey J.

2012-12-01

The dynamics and operability limits of a nonlinear-proportional-integral controller designed to stabilize detached vertical Bridgman crystal growth are studied. The manipulated variable is the pressure difference between upper and lower vapor spaces, and the controlled variable is the gap width at the triple-phase line. The controller consists of a model-based nonlinear component coupled with a standard proportional-integral controller. The nonlinear component is based on a capillary model of shape stability. Perturbations to gap width, pressure difference, wetting angle, and growth angle are studied under both shape stable and shape unstable conditions. The nonlinear-PI controller allows a wider operating range of gain than a standard PI controller used alone, is easier to tune, and eliminates solution multiplicity from closed-loop operation.

Modeling workplace bullying using catastrophe theory.

PubMed

Escartin, J; Ceja, L; Navarro, J; Zapf, D

2013-10-01

Workplace bullying is defined as negative behaviors directed at organizational members or their work context that occur regularly and repeatedly over a period of time. Employees' perceptions of psychosocial safety climate, workplace bullying victimization, and workplace bullying perpetration were assessed within a sample of nearly 5,000 workers. Linear and nonlinear approaches were applied in order to model both continuous and sudden changes in workplace bullying. More specifically, the present study examines whether a nonlinear dynamical systems model (i.e., a cusp catastrophe model) is superior to the linear combination of variables for predicting the effect of psychosocial safety climate and workplace bullying victimization on workplace bullying perpetration. According to the AICc, and BIC indices, the linear regression model fits the data better than the cusp catastrophe model. The study concludes that some phenomena, especially unhealthy behaviors at work (like workplace bullying), may be better studied using linear approaches as opposed to nonlinear dynamical systems models. This can be explained through the healthy variability hypothesis, which argues that positive organizational behavior is likely to present nonlinear behavior, while a decrease in such variability may indicate the occurrence of negative behaviors at work.

Non-Linear Relationship between Economic Growth and CO2 Emissions in China: An Empirical Study Based on Panel Smooth Transition Regression Models

PubMed Central

Wang, Zheng-Xin; Hao, Peng; Yao, Pei-Yi

2017-01-01

The non-linear relationship between provincial economic growth and carbon emissions is investigated by using panel smooth transition regression (PSTR) models. The research indicates that, on the condition of separately taking Gross Domestic Product per capita (GDPpc), energy structure (Es), and urbanisation level (Ul) as transition variables, three models all reject the null hypothesis of a linear relationship, i.e., a non-linear relationship exists. The results show that the three models all contain only one transition function but different numbers of location parameters. The model taking GDPpc as the transition variable has two location parameters, while the other two models separately considering Es and Ul as the transition variables both contain one location parameter. The three models applied in the study all favourably describe the non-linear relationship between economic growth and CO2 emissions in China. It also can be seen that the conversion rate of the influence of Ul on per capita CO2 emissions is significantly higher than those of GDPpc and Es on per capita CO2 emissions. PMID:29236083

Non-Linear Relationship between Economic Growth and CO₂ Emissions in China: An Empirical Study Based on Panel Smooth Transition Regression Models.

PubMed

Wang, Zheng-Xin; Hao, Peng; Yao, Pei-Yi

2017-12-13

The non-linear relationship between provincial economic growth and carbon emissions is investigated by using panel smooth transition regression (PSTR) models. The research indicates that, on the condition of separately taking Gross Domestic Product per capita (GDPpc), energy structure (Es), and urbanisation level (Ul) as transition variables, three models all reject the null hypothesis of a linear relationship, i.e., a non-linear relationship exists. The results show that the three models all contain only one transition function but different numbers of location parameters. The model taking GDPpc as the transition variable has two location parameters, while the other two models separately considering Es and Ul as the transition variables both contain one location parameter. The three models applied in the study all favourably describe the non-linear relationship between economic growth and CO₂ emissions in China. It also can be seen that the conversion rate of the influence of Ul on per capita CO₂ emissions is significantly higher than those of GDPpc and Es on per capita CO₂ emissions.

Agent based reasoning for the non-linear stochastic models of long-range memory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kononovicius, A.; Gontis, V.

2012-02-01

We extend Kirman's model by introducing variable event time scale. The proposed flexible time scale is equivalent to the variable trading activity observed in financial markets. Stochastic version of the extended Kirman's agent based model is compared to the non-linear stochastic models of long-range memory in financial markets. The agent based model providing matching macroscopic description serves as a microscopic reasoning of the earlier proposed stochastic model exhibiting power law statistics.

Rank-based estimation in the {ell}1-regularized partly linear model for censored outcomes with application to integrated analyses of clinical predictors and gene expression data.

PubMed

Johnson, Brent A

2009-10-01

We consider estimation and variable selection in the partial linear model for censored data. The partial linear model for censored data is a direct extension of the accelerated failure time model, the latter of which is a very important alternative model to the proportional hazards model. We extend rank-based lasso-type estimators to a model that may contain nonlinear effects. Variable selection in such partial linear model has direct application to high-dimensional survival analyses that attempt to adjust for clinical predictors. In the microarray setting, previous methods can adjust for other clinical predictors by assuming that clinical and gene expression data enter the model linearly in the same fashion. Here, we select important variables after adjusting for prognostic clinical variables but the clinical effects are assumed nonlinear. Our estimator is based on stratification and can be extended naturally to account for multiple nonlinear effects. We illustrate the utility of our method through simulation studies and application to the Wisconsin prognostic breast cancer data set.

[Spectral quantitative analysis by nonlinear partial least squares based on neural network internal model for flue gas of thermal power plant].

PubMed

Cao, Hui; Li, Yao-Jiang; Zhou, Yan; Wang, Yan-Xia

2014-11-01

To deal with nonlinear characteristics of spectra data for the thermal power plant flue, a nonlinear partial least square (PLS) analysis method with internal model based on neural network is adopted in the paper. The latent variables of the independent variables and the dependent variables are extracted by PLS regression firstly, and then they are used as the inputs and outputs of neural network respectively to build the nonlinear internal model by train process. For spectra data of flue gases of the thermal power plant, PLS, the nonlinear PLS with the internal model of back propagation neural network (BP-NPLS), the non-linear PLS with the internal model of radial basis function neural network (RBF-NPLS) and the nonlinear PLS with the internal model of adaptive fuzzy inference system (ANFIS-NPLS) are compared. The root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP) of sulfur dioxide of BP-NPLS, RBF-NPLS and ANFIS-NPLS are reduced by 16.96%, 16.60% and 19.55% than that of PLS, respectively. The RMSEP of nitric oxide of BP-NPLS, RBF-NPLS and ANFIS-NPLS are reduced by 8.60%, 8.47% and 10.09% than that of PLS, respectively. The RMSEP of nitrogen dioxide of BP-NPLS, RBF-NPLS and ANFIS-NPLS are reduced by 2.11%, 3.91% and 3.97% than that of PLS, respectively. Experimental results show that the nonlinear PLS is more suitable for the quantitative analysis of glue gas than PLS. Moreover, by using neural network function which can realize high approximation of nonlinear characteristics, the nonlinear partial least squares method with internal model mentioned in this paper have well predictive capabilities and robustness, and could deal with the limitations of nonlinear partial least squares method with other internal model such as polynomial and spline functions themselves under a certain extent. ANFIS-NPLS has the best performance with the internal model of adaptive fuzzy inference system having ability to learn more and reduce the residuals effectively. Hence, ANFIS-NPLS is an accurate and useful quantitative thermal power plant flue gas analysis method.

Nonlinear effects in a plain journal bearing. I - Analytical study. II - Results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Choy, F. K.; Braun, M. J.; Hu, Y.

1991-01-01

In the first part of this work, a numerical model is presented which couples the variable-property Reynolds equation with a rotor-dynamics model for the calculation of a plain journal bearing's nonlinear characteristics when working with a cryogenic fluid, LOX. The effects of load on the linear/nonlinear plain journal bearing characteristics are analyzed and presented in a parametric form. The second part of this work presents numerical results obtained for specific parametric-study input variables (lubricant inlet temperature, external load, angular rotational speed, and axial misalignment). Attention is given to the interrelations between pressure profiles and bearing linear and nonlinear characteristics.

An Unscented Kalman Filter Approach to the Estimation of Nonlinear Dynamical Systems Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chow, Sy-Miin; Ferrer, Emilio; Nesselroade, John R.

2007-01-01

In the past several decades, methodologies used to estimate nonlinear relationships among latent variables have been developed almost exclusively to fit cross-sectional models. We present a relatively new estimation approach, the unscented Kalman filter (UKF), and illustrate its potential as a tool for fitting nonlinear dynamic models in two ways:…

Matrix completion by deep matrix factorization.

PubMed

Fan, Jicong; Cheng, Jieyu

2018-02-01

Conventional methods of matrix completion are linear methods that are not effective in handling data of nonlinear structures. Recently a few researchers attempted to incorporate nonlinear techniques into matrix completion but there still exists considerable limitations. In this paper, a novel method called deep matrix factorization (DMF) is proposed for nonlinear matrix completion. Different from conventional matrix completion methods that are based on linear latent variable models, DMF is on the basis of a nonlinear latent variable model. DMF is formulated as a deep-structure neural network, in which the inputs are the low-dimensional unknown latent variables and the outputs are the partially observed variables. In DMF, the inputs and the parameters of the multilayer neural network are simultaneously optimized to minimize the reconstruction errors for the observed entries. Then the missing entries can be readily recovered by propagating the latent variables to the output layer. DMF is compared with state-of-the-art methods of linear and nonlinear matrix completion in the tasks of toy matrix completion, image inpainting and collaborative filtering. The experimental results verify that DMF is able to provide higher matrix completion accuracy than existing methods do and DMF is applicable to large matrices. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimation of Contextual Effects through Nonlinear Multilevel Latent Variable Modeling with a Metropolis-Hastings Robbins-Monro Algorithm

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yang, Ji Seung; Cai, Li

2014-01-01

The main purpose of this study is to improve estimation efficiency in obtaining maximum marginal likelihood estimates of contextual effects in the framework of nonlinear multilevel latent variable model by adopting the Metropolis-Hastings Robbins-Monro algorithm (MH-RM). Results indicate that the MH-RM algorithm can produce estimates and standard…

Advanced Nonlinear Latent Variable Modeling: Distribution Analytic LMS and QML Estimators of Interaction and Quadratic Effects

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kelava, Augustin; Werner, Christina S.; Schermelleh-Engel, Karin; Moosbrugger, Helfried; Zapf, Dieter; Ma, Yue; Cham, Heining; Aiken, Leona S.; West, Stephen G.

2011-01-01

Interaction and quadratic effects in latent variable models have to date only rarely been tested in practice. Traditional product indicator approaches need to create product indicators (e.g., x[superscript 2] [subscript 1], x[subscript 1]x[subscript 4]) to serve as indicators of each nonlinear latent construct. These approaches require the use of…

Predicting radiotherapy outcomes using statistical learning techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El Naqa, Issam; Bradley, Jeffrey D.; Lindsay, Patricia E.; Hope, Andrew J.; Deasy, Joseph O.

2009-09-01

Radiotherapy outcomes are determined by complex interactions between treatment, anatomical and patient-related variables. A common obstacle to building maximally predictive outcome models for clinical practice is the failure to capture potential complexity of heterogeneous variable interactions and applicability beyond institutional data. We describe a statistical learning methodology that can automatically screen for nonlinear relations among prognostic variables and generalize to unseen data before. In this work, several types of linear and nonlinear kernels to generate interaction terms and approximate the treatment-response function are evaluated. Examples of institutional datasets of esophagitis, pneumonitis and xerostomia endpoints were used. Furthermore, an independent RTOG dataset was used for 'generalizabilty' validation. We formulated the discrimination between risk groups as a supervised learning problem. The distribution of patient groups was initially analyzed using principle components analysis (PCA) to uncover potential nonlinear behavior. The performance of the different methods was evaluated using bivariate correlations and actuarial analysis. Over-fitting was controlled via cross-validation resampling. Our results suggest that a modified support vector machine (SVM) kernel method provided superior performance on leave-one-out testing compared to logistic regression and neural networks in cases where the data exhibited nonlinear behavior on PCA. For instance, in prediction of esophagitis and pneumonitis endpoints, which exhibited nonlinear behavior on PCA, the method provided 21% and 60% improvements, respectively. Furthermore, evaluation on the independent pneumonitis RTOG dataset demonstrated good generalizabilty beyond institutional data in contrast with other models. This indicates that the prediction of treatment response can be improved by utilizing nonlinear kernel methods for discovering important nonlinear interactions among model variables. These models have the capacity to predict on unseen data. Part of this work was first presented at the Seventh International Conference on Machine Learning and Applications, San Diego, CA, USA, 11-13 December 2008.

Automated reverse engineering of nonlinear dynamical systems

PubMed Central

Bongard, Josh; Lipson, Hod

2007-01-01

Complex nonlinear dynamics arise in many fields of science and engineering, but uncovering the underlying differential equations directly from observations poses a challenging task. The ability to symbolically model complex networked systems is key to understanding them, an open problem in many disciplines. Here we introduce for the first time a method that can automatically generate symbolic equations for a nonlinear coupled dynamical system directly from time series data. This method is applicable to any system that can be described using sets of ordinary nonlinear differential equations, and assumes that the (possibly noisy) time series of all variables are observable. Previous automated symbolic modeling approaches of coupled physical systems produced linear models or required a nonlinear model to be provided manually. The advance presented here is made possible by allowing the method to model each (possibly coupled) variable separately, intelligently perturbing and destabilizing the system to extract its less observable characteristics, and automatically simplifying the equations during modeling. We demonstrate this method on four simulated and two real systems spanning mechanics, ecology, and systems biology. Unlike numerical models, symbolic models have explanatory value, suggesting that automated “reverse engineering” approaches for model-free symbolic nonlinear system identification may play an increasing role in our ability to understand progressively more complex systems in the future. PMID:17553966

Automated reverse engineering of nonlinear dynamical systems.

PubMed

Bongard, Josh; Lipson, Hod

2007-06-12

Complex nonlinear dynamics arise in many fields of science and engineering, but uncovering the underlying differential equations directly from observations poses a challenging task. The ability to symbolically model complex networked systems is key to understanding them, an open problem in many disciplines. Here we introduce for the first time a method that can automatically generate symbolic equations for a nonlinear coupled dynamical system directly from time series data. This method is applicable to any system that can be described using sets of ordinary nonlinear differential equations, and assumes that the (possibly noisy) time series of all variables are observable. Previous automated symbolic modeling approaches of coupled physical systems produced linear models or required a nonlinear model to be provided manually. The advance presented here is made possible by allowing the method to model each (possibly coupled) variable separately, intelligently perturbing and destabilizing the system to extract its less observable characteristics, and automatically simplifying the equations during modeling. We demonstrate this method on four simulated and two real systems spanning mechanics, ecology, and systems biology. Unlike numerical models, symbolic models have explanatory value, suggesting that automated "reverse engineering" approaches for model-free symbolic nonlinear system identification may play an increasing role in our ability to understand progressively more complex systems in the future.

Linear theory for filtering nonlinear multiscale systems with model error

PubMed Central

Berry, Tyrus; Harlim, John

2014-01-01

In this paper, we study filtering of multiscale dynamical systems with model error arising from limitations in resolving the smaller scale processes. In particular, the analysis assumes the availability of continuous-time noisy observations of all components of the slow variables. Mathematically, this paper presents new results on higher order asymptotic expansion of the first two moments of a conditional measure. In particular, we are interested in the application of filtering multiscale problems in which the conditional distribution is defined over the slow variables, given noisy observation of the slow variables alone. From the mathematical analysis, we learn that for a continuous time linear model with Gaussian noise, there exists a unique choice of parameters in a linear reduced model for the slow variables which gives the optimal filtering when only the slow variables are observed. Moreover, these parameters simultaneously give the optimal equilibrium statistical estimates of the underlying system, and as a consequence they can be estimated offline from the equilibrium statistics of the true signal. By examining a nonlinear test model, we show that the linear theory extends in this non-Gaussian, nonlinear configuration as long as we know the optimal stochastic parametrization and the correct observation model. However, when the stochastic parametrization model is inappropriate, parameters chosen for good filter performance may give poor equilibrium statistical estimates and vice versa; this finding is based on analytical and numerical results on our nonlinear test model and the two-layer Lorenz-96 model. Finally, even when the correct stochastic ansatz is given, it is imperative to estimate the parameters simultaneously and to account for the nonlinear feedback of the stochastic parameters into the reduced filter estimates. In numerical experiments on the two-layer Lorenz-96 model, we find that the parameters estimated online, as part of a filtering procedure, simultaneously produce accurate filtering and equilibrium statistical prediction. In contrast, an offline estimation technique based on a linear regression, which fits the parameters to a training dataset without using the filter, yields filter estimates which are worse than the observations or even divergent when the slow variables are not fully observed. This finding does not imply that all offline methods are inherently inferior to the online method for nonlinear estimation problems, it only suggests that an ideal estimation technique should estimate all parameters simultaneously whether it is online or offline. PMID:25002829

Nonlinear Prediction Model for Hydrologic Time Series Based on Wavelet Decomposition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwon, H.; Khalil, A.; Brown, C.; Lall, U.; Ahn, H.; Moon, Y.

2005-12-01

Traditionally forecasting and characterizations of hydrologic systems is performed utilizing many techniques. Stochastic linear methods such as AR and ARIMA and nonlinear ones such as statistical learning theory based tools have been extensively used. The common difficulty to all methods is the determination of sufficient and necessary information and predictors for a successful prediction. Relationships between hydrologic variables are often highly nonlinear and interrelated across the temporal scale. A new hybrid approach is proposed for the simulation of hydrologic time series combining both the wavelet transform and the nonlinear model. The present model employs some merits of wavelet transform and nonlinear time series model. The Wavelet Transform is adopted to decompose a hydrologic nonlinear process into a set of mono-component signals, which are simulated by nonlinear model. The hybrid methodology is formulated in a manner to improve the accuracy of a long term forecasting. The proposed hybrid model yields much better results in terms of capturing and reproducing the time-frequency properties of the system at hand. Prediction results are promising when compared to traditional univariate time series models. An application of the plausibility of the proposed methodology is provided and the results conclude that wavelet based time series model can be utilized for simulating and forecasting of hydrologic variable reasonably well. This will ultimately serve the purpose of integrated water resources planning and management.

Robust nonlinear variable selective control for networked systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahmani, Behrooz

2016-10-01

This paper is concerned with the networked control of a class of uncertain nonlinear systems. In this way, Takagi-Sugeno (T-S) fuzzy modelling is used to extend the previously proposed variable selective control (VSC) methodology to nonlinear systems. This extension is based upon the decomposition of the nonlinear system to a set of fuzzy-blended locally linearised subsystems and further application of the VSC methodology to each subsystem. To increase the applicability of the T-S approach for uncertain nonlinear networked control systems, this study considers the asynchronous premise variables in the plant and the controller, and then introduces a robust stability analysis and control synthesis. The resulting optimal switching-fuzzy controller provides a minimum guaranteed cost on an H2 performance index. Simulation studies on three nonlinear benchmark problems demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Valuation of financial models with non-linear state spaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Webber, Nick

2001-02-01

A common assumption in valuation models for derivative securities is that the underlying state variables take values in a linear state space. We discuss numerical implementation issues in an interest rate model with a simple non-linear state space, formulating and comparing Monte Carlo, finite difference and lattice numerical solution methods. We conclude that, at least in low dimensional spaces, non-linear interest rate models may be viable.

A data-driven approach for modeling post-fire debris-flow volumes and their uncertainty

USGS Publications Warehouse

Friedel, Michael J.

2011-01-01

This study demonstrates the novel application of genetic programming to evolve nonlinear post-fire debris-flow volume equations from variables associated with a data-driven conceptual model of the western United States. The search space is constrained using a multi-component objective function that simultaneously minimizes root-mean squared and unit errors for the evolution of fittest equations. An optimization technique is then used to estimate the limits of nonlinear prediction uncertainty associated with the debris-flow equations. In contrast to a published multiple linear regression three-variable equation, linking basin area with slopes greater or equal to 30 percent, burn severity characterized as area burned moderate plus high, and total storm rainfall, the data-driven approach discovers many nonlinear and several dimensionally consistent equations that are unbiased and have less prediction uncertainty. Of the nonlinear equations, the best performance (lowest prediction uncertainty) is achieved when using three variables: average basin slope, total burned area, and total storm rainfall. Further reduction in uncertainty is possible for the nonlinear equations when dimensional consistency is not a priority and by subsequently applying a gradient solver to the fittest solutions. The data-driven modeling approach can be applied to nonlinear multivariate problems in all fields of study.

A nonlinear Kalman filtering approach to embedded control of turbocharged diesel engines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rigatos, Gerasimos; Siano, Pierluigi; Arsie, Ivan

2014-10-01

The development of efficient embedded control for turbocharged Diesel engines, requires the programming of elaborated nonlinear control and filtering methods. To this end, in this paper nonlinear control for turbocharged Diesel engines is developed with the use of Differential flatness theory and the Derivative-free nonlinear Kalman Filter. It is shown that the dynamic model of the turbocharged Diesel engine is differentially flat and admits dynamic feedback linearization. It is also shown that the dynamic model can be written in the linear Brunovsky canonical form for which a state feedback controller can be easily designed. To compensate for modeling errors and external disturbances the Derivative-free nonlinear Kalman Filter is used and redesigned as a disturbance observer. The filter consists of the Kalman Filter recursion on the linearized equivalent of the Diesel engine model and of an inverse transformation based on differential flatness theory which enables to obtain estimates for the state variables of the initial nonlinear model. Once the disturbances variables are identified it is possible to compensate them by including an additional control term in the feedback loop. The efficiency of the proposed control method is tested through simulation experiments.

The prediction of nonlinear dynamic loads on helicopters from flight variables using artificial neural networks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cook, A. B.; Fuller, C. R.; O'Brien, W. F.; Cabell, R. H.

1992-01-01

A method of indirectly monitoring component loads through common flight variables is proposed which requires an accurate model of the underlying nonlinear relationships. An artificial neural network (ANN) model learns relationships through exposure to a database of flight variable records and corresponding load histories from an instrumented military helicopter undergoing standard maneuvers. The ANN model, utilizing eight standard flight variables as inputs, is trained to predict normalized time-varying mean and oscillatory loads on two critical components over a range of seven maneuvers. Both interpolative and extrapolative capabilities are demonstrated with agreement between predicted and measured loads on the order of 90 percent to 95 percent. This work justifies pursuing the ANN method of predicting loads from flight variables.

Parameter estimation of variable-parameter nonlinear Muskingum model using excel solver

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, Ling; Zhou, Liwei

2018-02-01

Abstract . The Muskingum model is an effective flood routing technology in hydrology and water resources Engineering. With the development of optimization technology, more and more variable-parameter Muskingum models were presented to improve effectiveness of the Muskingum model in recent decades. A variable-parameter nonlinear Muskingum model (NVPNLMM) was proposed in this paper. According to the results of two real and frequently-used case studies by various models, the NVPNLMM could obtain better values of evaluation criteria, which are used to describe the superiority of the estimated outflows and compare the accuracies of flood routing using various models, and the optimal estimated outflows by the NVPNLMM were closer to the observed outflows than the ones by other models.

The ice age cycle and the deglaciations: an application of nonlinear regression modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dalgleish, A. N.; Boulton, G. S.; Renshaw, E.

2000-03-01

We have applied the nonlinear regression technique known as additivity and variance stabilisation (AVAS) to time series which reflect Earth's climate over the last 600 ka. AVAS estimates a smooth, nonlinear transform for each variable, under the assumption of an additive model. The Earth's orbital parameters and insolation variations have been used as regression variables. Analysis of the contribution of each variable shows that the deglaciations are characterised by periods of increasing obliquity and perihelion approaching the vernal equinox, but not by any systematic change in eccentricity. The magnitude of insolation changes also plays no role. By approximating the transforms we can obtain a future prediction, with a glacial maximum at 60 ka AP, and a subsequent obliquity and precession forced deglaciation.

Exact and Approximate Statistical Inference for Nonlinear Regression and the Estimating Equation Approach.

PubMed

Demidenko, Eugene

2017-09-01

The exact density distribution of the nonlinear least squares estimator in the one-parameter regression model is derived in closed form and expressed through the cumulative distribution function of the standard normal variable. Several proposals to generalize this result are discussed. The exact density is extended to the estimating equation (EE) approach and the nonlinear regression with an arbitrary number of linear parameters and one intrinsically nonlinear parameter. For a very special nonlinear regression model, the derived density coincides with the distribution of the ratio of two normally distributed random variables previously obtained by Fieller (1932), unlike other approximations previously suggested by other authors. Approximations to the density of the EE estimators are discussed in the multivariate case. Numerical complications associated with the nonlinear least squares are illustrated, such as nonexistence and/or multiple solutions, as major factors contributing to poor density approximation. The nonlinear Markov-Gauss theorem is formulated based on the near exact EE density approximation.

Estimating and Visualizing Nonlinear Relations among Latent Variables: A Semiparametric Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pek, Jolynn; Sterba, Sonya K.; Kok, Bethany E.; Bauer, Daniel J.

2009-01-01

The graphical presentation of any scientific finding enhances its description, interpretation, and evaluation. Research involving latent variables is no exception, especially when potential nonlinear effects are suspect. This article has multiple aims. First, it provides a nontechnical overview of a semiparametric approach to modeling nonlinear…

Development of an Integrated Nonlinear Aeroservoelastic Flight Dynamic Model of the NASA Generic Transport Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nguyen, Nhan; Ting, Eric

2018-01-01

This paper describes a recent development of an integrated fully coupled aeroservoelastic flight dynamic model of the NASA Generic Transport Model (GTM). The integrated model couples nonlinear flight dynamics to a nonlinear aeroelastic model of the GTM. The nonlinearity includes the coupling of the rigid-body aircraft states in the partial derivatives of the aeroelastic angle of attack. Aeroservoelastic modeling of the control surfaces which are modeled by the Variable Camber Continuous Trailing Edge Flap is also conducted. The R.T. Jones' method is implemented to approximate unsteady aerodynamics. Simulations of the GTM are conducted with simulated continuous and discrete gust loads..

Research on the Diesel Engine with Sliding Mode Variable Structure Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Zhexuan; Mao, Xiaobing; Cai, Le

2018-05-01

This study constructed the nonlinear mathematical model of the diesel engine high-pressure common rail (HPCR) system through two polynomial fitting which was treated as a kind of affine nonlinear system. Based on sliding-mode variable structure control (SMVSC) theory, a sliding-mode controller for affine nonlinear systems was designed for achieving the control of common rail pressure and the diesel engine’s rotational speed. Finally, on the simulation platform of MATLAB, the designed nonlinear HPCR system was simulated. The simulation results demonstrated that sliding-mode variable structure control algorithm shows favourable control performances which are overcoming the shortcomings of traditional PID control in overshoot, parameter adjustment, system precision, adjustment time and ascending time.

Separation of the atmospheric variability into non-Gaussian multidimensional sources by projection pursuit techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pires, Carlos A. L.; Ribeiro, Andreia F. S.

2017-02-01

We develop an expansion of space-distributed time series into statistically independent uncorrelated subspaces (statistical sources) of low-dimension and exhibiting enhanced non-Gaussian probability distributions with geometrically simple chosen shapes (projection pursuit rationale). The method relies upon a generalization of the principal component analysis that is optimal for Gaussian mixed signals and of the independent component analysis (ICA), optimized to split non-Gaussian scalar sources. The proposed method, supported by information theory concepts and methods, is the independent subspace analysis (ISA) that looks for multi-dimensional, intrinsically synergetic subspaces such as dyads (2D) and triads (3D), not separable by ICA. Basically, we optimize rotated variables maximizing certain nonlinear correlations (contrast functions) coming from the non-Gaussianity of the joint distribution. As a by-product, it provides nonlinear variable changes `unfolding' the subspaces into nearly Gaussian scalars of easier post-processing. Moreover, the new variables still work as nonlinear data exploratory indices of the non-Gaussian variability of the analysed climatic and geophysical fields. The method (ISA, followed by nonlinear unfolding) is tested into three datasets. The first one comes from the Lorenz'63 three-dimensional chaotic model, showing a clear separation into a non-Gaussian dyad plus an independent scalar. The second one is a mixture of propagating waves of random correlated phases in which the emergence of triadic wave resonances imprints a statistical signature in terms of a non-Gaussian non-separable triad. Finally the method is applied to the monthly variability of a high-dimensional quasi-geostrophic (QG) atmospheric model, applied to the Northern Hemispheric winter. We find that quite enhanced non-Gaussian dyads of parabolic shape, perform much better than the unrotated variables in which concerns the separation of the four model's centroid regimes (positive and negative phases of the Arctic Oscillation and of the North Atlantic Oscillation). Triads are also likely in the QG model but of weaker expression than dyads due to the imposed shape and dimension. The study emphasizes the existence of nonlinear dyadic and triadic nonlinear teleconnections.

Long-term forecasting of meteorological time series using Nonlinear Canonical Correlation Analysis (NLCCA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woldesellasse, H. T.; Marpu, P. R.; Ouarda, T.

2016-12-01

Wind is one of the crucial renewable energy sources which is expected to bring solutions to the challenges of clean energy and the global issue of climate change. A number of linear and nonlinear multivariate techniques has been used to predict the stochastic character of wind speed. A wind forecast with good accuracy has a positive impact on the reduction of electricity system cost and is essential for the effective grid management. Over the past years, few studies have been done on the assessment of teleconnections and its possible effects on the long-term wind speed variability in the UAE region. In this study Nonlinear Canonical Correlation Analysis (NLCCA) method is applied to study the relationship between global climate oscillation indices and meteorological variables, with a major emphasis on wind speed and wind direction, of Abu Dhabi, UAE. The wind dataset was obtained from six ground stations. The first mode of NLCCA is capable of capturing the nonlinear mode of the climate indices at different seasons, showing the symmetry between the warm states and the cool states. The strength of the nonlinear canonical correlation between the two sets of variables varies with the lead/lag time. The performance of the models is assessed by calculating error indices such as the root mean square error (RMSE) and Mean absolute error (MAE). The results indicated that NLCCA models provide more accurate information about the nonlinear intrinsic behaviour of the dataset of variables than linear CCA model in terms of the correlation and root mean square error. Key words: Nonlinear Canonical Correlation Analysis (NLCCA), Canonical Correlation Analysis, Neural Network, Climate Indices, wind speed, wind direction

On solitons: the biomolecular nonlinear transmission line models with constant and time variable coefficients

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raza, Nauman; Murtaza, Isma Ghulam; Sial, Sultan; Younis, Muhammad

2018-07-01

The article studies the dynamics of solitons in electrical microtubule ? model, which describes the propagation of waves in nonlinear dynamical system. Microtubules are not only a passive support of a cell but also they have highly dynamic structures involved in cell motility, intracellular transport and signaling. The underlying model has been considered with constant and variable coefficients of time function. The solitary wave ansatz has been applied successfully to extract these solitons. The corresponding integrability criteria, also known as constraint conditions, naturally emerge from the analysis of these models.

Non-Linear Approach in Kinesiology Should Be Preferred to the Linear--A Case of Basketball.

PubMed

Trninić, Marko; Jeličić, Mario; Papić, Vladan

2015-07-01

In kinesiology, medicine, biology and psychology, in which research focus is on dynamical self-organized systems, complex connections exist between variables. Non-linear nature of complex systems has been discussed and explained by the example of non-linear anthropometric predictors of performance in basketball. Previous studies interpreted relations between anthropometric features and measures of effectiveness in basketball by (a) using linear correlation models, and by (b) including all basketball athletes in the same sample of participants regardless of their playing position. In this paper the significance and character of linear and non-linear relations between simple anthropometric predictors (AP) and performance criteria consisting of situation-related measures of effectiveness (SE) in basketball were determined and evaluated. The sample of participants consisted of top-level junior basketball players divided in three groups according to their playing time (8 minutes and more per game) and playing position: guards (N = 42), forwards (N = 26) and centers (N = 40). Linear (general model) and non-linear (general model) regression models were calculated simultaneously and separately for each group. The conclusion is viable: non-linear regressions are frequently superior to linear correlations when interpreting actual association logic among research variables.

Process fault detection and nonlinear time series analysis for anomaly detection in safeguards

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Burr, T.L.; Mullen, M.F.; Wangen, L.E.

In this paper we discuss two advanced techniques, process fault detection and nonlinear time series analysis, and apply them to the analysis of vector-valued and single-valued time-series data. We investigate model-based process fault detection methods for analyzing simulated, multivariate, time-series data from a three-tank system. The model-predictions are compared with simulated measurements of the same variables to form residual vectors that are tested for the presence of faults (possible diversions in safeguards terminology). We evaluate two methods, testing all individual residuals with a univariate z-score and testing all variables simultaneously with the Mahalanobis distance, for their ability to detect lossmore » of material from two different leak scenarios from the three-tank system: a leak without and with replacement of the lost volume. Nonlinear time-series analysis tools were compared with the linear methods popularized by Box and Jenkins. We compare prediction results using three nonlinear and two linear modeling methods on each of six simulated time series: two nonlinear and four linear. The nonlinear methods performed better at predicting the nonlinear time series and did as well as the linear methods at predicting the linear values.« less

Non-linear feedback control of the p53 protein-mdm2 inhibitor system using the derivative-free non-linear Kalman filter.

PubMed

Rigatos, Gerasimos G

2016-06-01

It is proven that the model of the p53-mdm2 protein synthesis loop is a differentially flat one and using a diffeomorphism (change of state variables) that is proposed by differential flatness theory it is shown that the protein synthesis model can be transformed into the canonical (Brunovsky) form. This enables the design of a feedback control law that maintains the concentration of the p53 protein at the desirable levels. To estimate the non-measurable elements of the state vector describing the p53-mdm2 system dynamics, the derivative-free non-linear Kalman filter is used. Moreover, to compensate for modelling uncertainties and external disturbances that affect the p53-mdm2 system, the derivative-free non-linear Kalman filter is re-designed as a disturbance observer. The derivative-free non-linear Kalman filter consists of the Kalman filter recursion applied on the linearised equivalent of the protein synthesis model together with an inverse transformation based on differential flatness theory that enables to retrieve estimates for the state variables of the initial non-linear model. The proposed non-linear feedback control and perturbations compensation method for the p53-mdm2 system can result in more efficient chemotherapy schemes where the infusion of medication will be better administered.

Modern aspects of nonlinear convection and magnetic field in flow of thixotropic nanofluid over a nonlinear stretching sheet with variable thickness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayat, Tasawar; Qayyum, Sajid; Alsaedi, Ahmed; Ahmad, Bashir

2018-05-01

Main objective of present analysis is to study the magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) nonlinear convective flow of thixotropic nanofluid. Flow is due to nonlinear stretching surface with variable thickness. Nonlinear thermal radiation and heat generation/absorption are utilized in the energy expression. Convective conditions and zero mass flux at sheet are considered. Intention in present analysis is to develop a model for nanomaterial comprising Brownian motion and thermophoresis phenomena. Appropriate transformations are implemented for the conversion of partial differential systems into a sets of ordinary differential equations. The transformed expressions have been scrutinized through homotopic algorithm. Behavior of various sundry variables on velocity, temperature, nanoparticle concentration, skin friction coefficient and local Nusselt number are displayed through graphs. It is concluded that qualitative behaviors of temperature and thermal layer thickness are similar for radiation and temperature ratio variables. Moreover an enhancement in heat generation/absorption show rise to thermal field.

Eddy-driven low-frequency variability: physics and observability through altimetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Penduff, Thierry; Sérazin, Guillaume; Arbic, Brian; Mueller, Malte; Richman, James G.; Shriver, Jay F.; Morten, Andrew J.; Scott, Robert B.

2015-04-01

Model studies have revealed the propensity of the eddying ocean circulation to generate strong low-frequency variability (LFV) intrinsically, i.e. without low-frequency atmospheric variability. In the present study, gridded satellite altimeter products, idealized quasi-geostrophic (QG) turbulent simulations, and realistic high-resolution global ocean simulations are used to study the spontaneous tendency of mesoscale (relatively high frequency and high wavenumber) kinetic energy to non-linearly cascade towards larger time and space scales. The QG model reveals that large-scale variability, arising from the well-known spatial inverse cascade, is associated with low frequencies. Low-frequency, low-wavenumber energy is maintained primarily by nonlinearities in the QG model, with forcing (by large-scale shear) and friction playing secondary roles. In realistic simulations, nonlinearities also generally drive kinetic energy to low frequencies and low wavenumbers. In some, but not all, regions of the gridded altimeter product, surface kinetic energy is also found to cascade toward low frequencies. Exercises conducted with the realistic model suggest that the spatial and temporal filtering inherent in the construction of gridded satellite altimeter maps may contribute to the discrepancies seen in some regions between the direction of frequency cascade in models versus gridded altimeter maps. Finally, the range of frequencies that are highly energized and engaged these cascades appears much greater than the range of highly energized and engaged wavenumbers. Global eddying simulations, performed in the context of the CHAOCEAN project in collaboration with the CAREER project, provide estimates of the range of timescales that these oceanic nonlinearities are likely to feed without external variability.

Periodic solutions for one dimensional wave equation with bounded nonlinearity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ji, Shuguan

2018-05-01

This paper is concerned with the periodic solutions for the one dimensional nonlinear wave equation with either constant or variable coefficients. The constant coefficient model corresponds to the classical wave equation, while the variable coefficient model arises from the forced vibrations of a nonhomogeneous string and the propagation of seismic waves in nonisotropic media. For finding the periodic solutions of variable coefficient wave equation, it is usually required that the coefficient u (x) satisfies ess infηu (x) > 0 with ηu (x) = 1/2 u″/u - 1/4 (u‧/u)2, which actually excludes the classical constant coefficient model. For the case ηu (x) = 0, it is indicated to remain an open problem by Barbu and Pavel (1997) [6]. In this work, for the periods having the form T = 2p-1/q (p , q are positive integers) and some types of boundary value conditions, we find some fundamental properties for the wave operator with either constant or variable coefficients. Based on these properties, we obtain the existence of periodic solutions when the nonlinearity is monotone and bounded. Such nonlinearity may cross multiple eigenvalues of the corresponding wave operator. In particular, we do not require the condition ess infηu (x) > 0.

A Fully Associative, Non-Linear Kinematic, Unified Viscoplastic Model for Titanium Based Matrices

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arnold, S. M.; Saleeb, A. F.; Castelli, M. G.

1994-01-01

Specific forms for both the Gibb's and complementary dissipation potentials are chosen such that a complete (i.e., fully associative) potential based multiaxial unified viscoplastic model is obtained. This model possesses one tensorial internal state variable that is associated with dislocation substructure, with an evolutionary law that has nonlinear kinematic hardening and both thermal and strain induced recovery mechanisms. A unique aspect of the present model is the inclusion of non-linear hardening through the use of a compliance operator, derived from the Gibb's potential, in the evolution law for the back stress. This non-linear tensorial operator is significant in that it allows both the flow and evolutionary laws to be fully associative (and therefore easily integrated) and greatly influences the multiaxial response under non-proportional loading paths. In addition to this nonlinear compliance operator, a new consistent, potential preserving, internal strain unloading criterion has been introduced to prevent abnormalities in the predicted stress-strain curves, which are present with nonlinear hardening formulations, during unloading and reversed loading of the external variables. Specification of an experimental program for the complete determination of the material functions and parameters for characterizing a metallic matrix, e.g., TIMETAL 21S, is given. The experiments utilized are tensile, creep, and step creep tests. Finally, a comparison of this model and a commonly used Bodner-Partom model is made on the basis of predictive accuracy and numerical efficiency.

Low-order nonlinear dynamic model of IC engine-variable pitch propeller system for general aviation aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Richard, Jacques C.

1995-01-01

This paper presents a dynamic model of an internal combustion engine coupled to a variable pitch propeller. The low-order, nonlinear time-dependent model is useful for simulating the propulsion system of general aviation single-engine light aircraft. This model is suitable for investigating engine diagnostics and monitoring and for control design and development. Furthermore, the model may be extended to provide a tool for the study of engine emissions, fuel economy, component effects, alternative fuels, alternative engine cycles, flight simulators, sensors, and actuators. Results show that the model provides a reasonable representation of the propulsion system dynamics from zero to 10 Hertz.

Study on the variable cycle engine modeling techniques based on the component method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Lihua; Xue, Hui; Bao, Yuhai; Li, Jijun; Yan, Lan

2016-01-01

Based on the structure platform of the gas turbine engine, the components of variable cycle engine were simulated by using the component method. The mathematical model of nonlinear equations correspondeing to each component of the gas turbine engine was established. Based on Matlab programming, the nonlinear equations were solved by using Newton-Raphson steady-state algorithm, and the performance of the components for engine was calculated. The numerical simulation results showed that the model bulit can describe the basic performance of the gas turbine engine, which verified the validity of the model.

On Insensitivity of the Chi-Square Model Test to Nonlinear Misspecification in Structural Equation Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mooijaart, Ab; Satorra, Albert

2009-01-01

In this paper, we show that for some structural equation models (SEM), the classical chi-square goodness-of-fit test is unable to detect the presence of nonlinear terms in the model. As an example, we consider a regression model with latent variables and interactions terms. Not only the model test has zero power against that type of…

LINEAR - DERIVATION AND DEFINITION OF A LINEAR AIRCRAFT MODEL

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Duke, E. L.

1994-01-01

The Derivation and Definition of a Linear Model program, LINEAR, provides the user with a powerful and flexible tool for the linearization of aircraft aerodynamic models. LINEAR was developed to provide a standard, documented, and verified tool to derive linear models for aircraft stability analysis and control law design. Linear system models define the aircraft system in the neighborhood of an analysis point and are determined by the linearization of the nonlinear equations defining vehicle dynamics and sensors. LINEAR numerically determines a linear system model using nonlinear equations of motion and a user supplied linear or nonlinear aerodynamic model. The nonlinear equations of motion used are six-degree-of-freedom equations with stationary atmosphere and flat, nonrotating earth assumptions. LINEAR is capable of extracting both linearized engine effects, such as net thrust, torque, and gyroscopic effects and including these effects in the linear system model. The point at which this linear model is defined is determined either by completely specifying the state and control variables, or by specifying an analysis point on a trajectory and directing the program to determine the control variables and the remaining state variables. The system model determined by LINEAR consists of matrices for both the state and observation equations. The program has been designed to provide easy selection of state, control, and observation variables to be used in a particular model. Thus, the order of the system model is completely under user control. Further, the program provides the flexibility of allowing alternate formulations of both the state and observation equations. Data describing the aircraft and the test case is input to the program through a terminal or formatted data files. All data can be modified interactively from case to case. The aerodynamic model can be defined in two ways: a set of nondimensional stability and control derivatives for the flight point of interest, or a full non-linear aerodynamic model as used in simulations. LINEAR is written in FORTRAN and has been implemented on a DEC VAX computer operating under VMS with a virtual memory requirement of approximately 296K of 8 bit bytes. Both an interactive and batch version are included. LINEAR was developed in 1988.

Change detection in the dynamics of an intracellular protein synthesis model using nonlinear Kalman filtering.

PubMed

Rigatos, Gerasimos G; Rigatou, Efthymia G; Djida, Jean Daniel

2015-10-01

A method for early diagnosis of parametric changes in intracellular protein synthesis models (e.g. the p53 protein - mdm2 inhibitor model) is developed with the use of a nonlinear Kalman Filtering approach (Derivative-free nonlinear Kalman Filter) and of statistical change detection methods. The intracellular protein synthesis dynamic model is described by a set of coupled nonlinear differential equations. It is shown that such a dynamical system satisfies differential flatness properties and this allows to transform it, through a change of variables (diffeomorphism), to the so-called linear canonical form. For the linearized equivalent of the dynamical system, state estimation can be performed using the Kalman Filter recursion. Moreover, by applying an inverse transformation based on the previous diffeomorphism it becomes also possible to obtain estimates of the state variables of the initial nonlinear model. By comparing the output of the Kalman Filter (which is assumed to correspond to the undistorted dynamical model) with measurements obtained from the monitored protein synthesis system, a sequence of differences (residuals) is obtained. The statistical processing of the residuals with the use of x2 change detection tests, can provide indication within specific confidence intervals about parametric changes in the considered biological system and consequently indications about the appearance of specific diseases (e.g. malignancies).

Measurement Model Nonlinearity in Estimation of Dynamical Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Majji, Manoranjan; Junkins, J. L.; Turner, J. D.

2012-06-01

The role of nonlinearity of the measurement model and its interactions with the uncertainty of measurements and geometry of the problem is studied in this paper. An examination of the transformations of the probability density function in various coordinate systems is presented for several astrodynamics applications. Smooth and analytic nonlinear functions are considered for the studies on the exact transformation of uncertainty. Special emphasis is given to understanding the role of change of variables in the calculus of random variables. The transformation of probability density functions through mappings is shown to provide insight in to understanding the evolution of uncertainty in nonlinear systems. Examples are presented to highlight salient aspects of the discussion. A sequential orbit determination problem is analyzed, where the transformation formula provides useful insights for making the choice of coordinates for estimation of dynamic systems.

Non-linear scaling of a musculoskeletal model of the lower limb using statistical shape models.

PubMed

Nolte, Daniel; Tsang, Chui Kit; Zhang, Kai Yu; Ding, Ziyun; Kedgley, Angela E; Bull, Anthony M J

2016-10-03

Accurate muscle geometry for musculoskeletal models is important to enable accurate subject-specific simulations. Commonly, linear scaling is used to obtain individualised muscle geometry. More advanced methods include non-linear scaling using segmented bone surfaces and manual or semi-automatic digitisation of muscle paths from medical images. In this study, a new scaling method combining non-linear scaling with reconstructions of bone surfaces using statistical shape modelling is presented. Statistical Shape Models (SSMs) of femur and tibia/fibula were used to reconstruct bone surfaces of nine subjects. Reference models were created by morphing manually digitised muscle paths to mean shapes of the SSMs using non-linear transformations and inter-subject variability was calculated. Subject-specific models of muscle attachment and via points were created from three reference models. The accuracy was evaluated by calculating the differences between the scaled and manually digitised models. The points defining the muscle paths showed large inter-subject variability at the thigh and shank - up to 26mm; this was found to limit the accuracy of all studied scaling methods. Errors for the subject-specific muscle point reconstructions of the thigh could be decreased by 9% to 20% by using the non-linear scaling compared to a typical linear scaling method. We conclude that the proposed non-linear scaling method is more accurate than linear scaling methods. Thus, when combined with the ability to reconstruct bone surfaces from incomplete or scattered geometry data using statistical shape models our proposed method is an alternative to linear scaling methods. Copyright © 2016 The Author. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Maximum Likelihood Analysis of a Two-Level Nonlinear Structural Equation Model with Fixed Covariates

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Sik-Yum; Song, Xin-Yuan

2005-01-01

In this article, a maximum likelihood (ML) approach for analyzing a rather general two-level structural equation model is developed for hierarchically structured data that are very common in educational and/or behavioral research. The proposed two-level model can accommodate nonlinear causal relations among latent variables as well as effects…

Feedback linearization for control of air breathing engines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Phillips, Stephen; Mattern, Duane

1991-01-01

The method of feedback linearization for control of the nonlinear nozzle and compressor components of an air breathing engine is presented. This method overcomes the need for a large number of scheduling variables and operating points to accurately model highly nonlinear plants. Feedback linearization also results in linear closed loop system performance simplifying subsequent control design. Feedback linearization is used for the nonlinear partial engine model and performance is verified through simulation.

Variable-Structure Control of a Model Glider Airplane

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Waszak, Martin R.; Anderson, Mark R.

2008-01-01

A variable-structure control system designed to enable a fuselage-heavy airplane to recover from spin has been demonstrated in a hand-launched, instrumented model glider airplane. Variable-structure control is a high-speed switching feedback control technique that has been developed for control of nonlinear dynamic systems.

Nonlinearities of heart rate variability in animal models of impaired cardiac control: contribution of different time scales.

PubMed

Silva, Luiz Eduardo Virgilio; Lataro, Renata Maria; Castania, Jaci Airton; Silva, Carlos Alberto Aguiar; Salgado, Helio Cesar; Fazan, Rubens; Porta, Alberto

2017-08-01

Heart rate variability (HRV) has been extensively explored by traditional linear approaches (e.g., spectral analysis); however, several studies have pointed to the presence of nonlinear features in HRV, suggesting that linear tools might fail to account for the complexity of the HRV dynamics. Even though the prevalent notion is that HRV is nonlinear, the actual presence of nonlinear features is rarely verified. In this study, the presence of nonlinear dynamics was checked as a function of time scales in three experimental models of rats with different impairment of the cardiac control: namely, rats with heart failure (HF), spontaneously hypertensive rats (SHRs), and sinoaortic denervated (SAD) rats. Multiscale entropy (MSE) and refined MSE (RMSE) were chosen as the discriminating statistic for the surrogate test utilized to detect nonlinearity. Nonlinear dynamics is less present in HF animals at both short and long time scales compared with controls. A similar finding was found in SHR only at short time scales. SAD increased the presence of nonlinear dynamics exclusively at short time scales. Those findings suggest that a working baroreflex contributes to linearize HRV and to reduce the likelihood to observe nonlinear components of the cardiac control at short time scales. In addition, an increased sympathetic modulation seems to be a source of nonlinear dynamics at long time scales. Testing nonlinear dynamics as a function of the time scales can provide a characterization of the cardiac control complementary to more traditional markers in time, frequency, and information domains. NEW & NOTEWORTHY Although heart rate variability (HRV) dynamics is widely assumed to be nonlinear, nonlinearity tests are rarely used to check this hypothesis. By adopting multiscale entropy (MSE) and refined MSE (RMSE) as the discriminating statistic for the nonlinearity test, we show that nonlinear dynamics varies with time scale and the type of cardiac dysfunction. Moreover, as complexity metrics and nonlinearities provide complementary information, we strongly recommend using the test for nonlinearity as an additional index to characterize HRV. Copyright © 2017 the American Physiological Society.

One- and Two-dimensional Solitary Wave States in the Nonlinear Kramers Equation with Movement Direction as a Variable

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sakaguchi, Hidetsugu; Ishibashi, Kazuya

2018-06-01

We study self-propelled particles by direct numerical simulation of the nonlinear Kramers equation for self-propelled particles. In our previous paper, we studied self-propelled particles with velocity variables in one dimension. In this paper, we consider another model in which each particle exhibits directional motion. The movement direction is expressed with a variable ϕ. We show that one-dimensional solitary wave states appear in direct numerical simulations of the nonlinear Kramers equation in one- and two-dimensional systems, which is a generalization of our previous result. Furthermore, we find two-dimensionally localized states in the case that each self-propelled particle exhibits rotational motion. The center of mass of the two-dimensionally localized state exhibits circular motion, which implies collective rotating motion. Finally, we consider a simple one-dimensional model equation to qualitatively understand the formation of the solitary wave state.

Research on Zheng Classification Fusing Pulse Parameters in Coronary Heart Disease

PubMed Central

Guo, Rui; Wang, Yi-Qin; Xu, Jin; Yan, Hai-Xia; Yan, Jian-Jun; Li, Fu-Feng; Xu, Zhao-Xia; Xu, Wen-Jie

2013-01-01

This study was conducted to illustrate that nonlinear dynamic variables of Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) pulse can improve the performances of TCM Zheng classification models. Pulse recordings of 334 coronary heart disease (CHD) patients and 117 normal subjects were collected in this study. Recurrence quantification analysis (RQA) was employed to acquire nonlinear dynamic variables of pulse. TCM Zheng models in CHD were constructed, and predictions using a novel multilabel learning algorithm based on different datasets were carried out. Datasets were designed as follows: dataset1, TCM inquiry information including inspection information; dataset2, time-domain variables of pulse and dataset1; dataset3, RQA variables of pulse and dataset1; and dataset4, major principal components of RQA variables and dataset1. The performances of the different models for Zheng differentiation were compared. The model for Zheng differentiation based on RQA variables integrated with inquiry information had the best performance, whereas that based only on inquiry had the worst performance. Meanwhile, the model based on time-domain variables of pulse integrated with inquiry fell between the above two. This result showed that RQA variables of pulse can be used to construct models of TCM Zheng and improve the performance of Zheng differentiation models. PMID:23737839

A fully associative, nonisothermal, nonlinear kinematic, unified viscoplastic model for titanium alloys

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arnold, S. M.; Saleeb, A. F.; Castelli, M. G.

1995-05-01

Specific forms for both the Gibb's and complementary dissipation potentials are chosen such that a complete (i.e., fully associative) potential base multiaxial, nonisothermal unified viscoplastic model is obtained. This model possesses one tensorial internal state variable (that is, associated with dislocation substructure) and an evolutionary law that has nonlinear kinematic hardening and both thermal and strain induced recovery mechanisms. A unique aspect of the present model is the inclusion of nonlinear hardening through the use of a compliance operator, derived from the Gibb's potential, in the evolution law for the back stress. This nonlinear tensorial operator is significant in that it allows both the flow and evolutionary laws to be fully associative (and therefore easily integrated), greatly influences the multiaxial response under non-proportional loading paths, and in the case of nonisothermal histories, introduces an instantaneous thermal softening mechanism proportional to the rate of change in temperature. In addition to this nonlinear compliance operator, a new consistent, potential preserving, internal strain unloading criterion has been introduced to prevent abnormalities in the predicted stress-strain curves, which are present with nonlinear hardening formulations, during unloading and reversed loading of the external variables. The specific model proposed is characterized for a representative titanium alloy commonly used as the matrix material in SiC fiber reinforced composites, i.e., TIMETAL 21S. Verification of the proposed model is shown using 'specialized' non-standard isothermal and thermomechanical deformation tests.

A fully associative, nonisothermal, nonlinear kinematic, unified viscoplastic model for titanium alloys

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arnold, S. M.; Saleeb, A. F.; Castelli, M. G.

1995-01-01

Specific forms for both the Gibb's and complementary dissipation potentials are chosen such that a complete (i.e., fully associative) potential base multiaxial, nonisothermal unified viscoplastic model is obtained. This model possesses one tensorial internal state variable (that is, associated with dislocation substructure) and an evolutionary law that has nonlinear kinematic hardening and both thermal and strain induced recovery mechanisms. A unique aspect of the present model is the inclusion of nonlinear hardening through the use of a compliance operator, derived from the Gibb's potential, in the evolution law for the back stress. This nonlinear tensorial operator is significant in that it allows both the flow and evolutionary laws to be fully associative (and therefore easily integrated), greatly influences the multiaxial response under non-proportional loading paths, and in the case of nonisothermal histories, introduces an instantaneous thermal softening mechanism proportional to the rate of change in temperature. In addition to this nonlinear compliance operator, a new consistent, potential preserving, internal strain unloading criterion has been introduced to prevent abnormalities in the predicted stress-strain curves, which are present with nonlinear hardening formulations, during unloading and reversed loading of the external variables. The specific model proposed is characterized for a representative titanium alloy commonly used as the matrix material in SiC fiber reinforced composites, i.e., TIMETAL 21S. Verification of the proposed model is shown using 'specialized' non-standard isothermal and thermomechanical deformation tests.

Economic growth and CO2 emissions: an investigation with smooth transition autoregressive distributed lag models for the 1800-2014 period in the USA.

PubMed

Bildirici, Melike; Ersin, Özgür Ömer

2018-01-01

The study aims to combine the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) cointegration framework with smooth transition autoregressive (STAR)-type nonlinear econometric models for causal inference. Further, the proposed STAR distributed lag (STARDL) models offer new insights in terms of modeling nonlinearity in the long- and short-run relations between analyzed variables. The STARDL method allows modeling and testing nonlinearity in the short-run and long-run parameters or both in the short- and long-run relations. To this aim, the relation between CO 2 emissions and economic growth rates in the USA is investigated for the 1800-2014 period, which is one of the largest data sets available. The proposed hybrid models are the logistic, exponential, and second-order logistic smooth transition autoregressive distributed lag (LSTARDL, ESTARDL, and LSTAR2DL) models combine the STAR framework with nonlinear ARDL-type cointegration to augment the linear ARDL approach with smooth transitional nonlinearity. The proposed models provide a new approach to the relevant econometrics and environmental economics literature. Our results indicated the presence of asymmetric long-run and short-run relations between the analyzed variables that are from the GDP towards CO 2 emissions. By the use of newly proposed STARDL models, the results are in favor of important differences in terms of the response of CO 2 emissions in regimes 1 and 2 for the estimated LSTAR2DL and LSTARDL models.

Development and validation of a general purpose linearization program for rigid aircraft models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Duke, E. L.; Antoniewicz, R. F.

1985-01-01

A FORTRAN program that provides the user with a powerful and flexible tool for the linearization of aircraft models is discussed. The program LINEAR numerically determines a linear systems model using nonlinear equations of motion and a user-supplied, nonlinear aerodynamic model. The system model determined by LINEAR consists of matrices for both the state and observation equations. The program has been designed to allow easy selection and definition of the state, control, and observation variables to be used in a particular model. Also, included in the report is a comparison of linear and nonlinear models for a high performance aircraft.

Linear and nonlinear variable selection in competing risks data.

PubMed

Ren, Xiaowei; Li, Shanshan; Shen, Changyu; Yu, Zhangsheng

2018-06-15

Subdistribution hazard model for competing risks data has been applied extensively in clinical researches. Variable selection methods of linear effects for competing risks data have been studied in the past decade. There is no existing work on selection of potential nonlinear effects for subdistribution hazard model. We propose a two-stage procedure to select the linear and nonlinear covariate(s) simultaneously and estimate the selected covariate effect(s). We use spectral decomposition approach to distinguish the linear and nonlinear parts of each covariate and adaptive LASSO to select each of the 2 components. Extensive numerical studies are conducted to demonstrate that the proposed procedure can achieve good selection accuracy in the first stage and small estimation biases in the second stage. The proposed method is applied to analyze a cardiovascular disease data set with competing death causes. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A Bayesian Approach for Nonlinear Structural Equation Models with Dichotomous Variables Using Logit and Probit Links

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Sik-Yum; Song, Xin-Yuan; Cai, Jing-Heng

2010-01-01

Analysis of ordered binary and unordered binary data has received considerable attention in social and psychological research. This article introduces a Bayesian approach, which has several nice features in practical applications, for analyzing nonlinear structural equation models with dichotomous data. We demonstrate how to use the software…

Visualizing Confidence Bands for Semiparametrically Estimated Nonlinear Relations among Latent Variables

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pek, Jolynn; Chalmers, R. Philip; Kok, Bethany E.; Losardo, Diane

2015-01-01

Structural equation mixture models (SEMMs), when applied as a semiparametric model (SPM), can adequately recover potentially nonlinear latent relationships without their specification. This SPM is useful for exploratory analysis when the form of the latent regression is unknown. The purpose of this article is to help users familiar with structural…

Compounding nonlinearities in the climate and wildfire system contribute to high uncertainty in estimates of future burned area in the western United State

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, P.

2015-12-01

Ecological studies are increasingly recognizing the importance of atmospheric vapor-pressure deficit (VPD) as a driver of forest drought stress and disturbance processes such as wildfire. Because of the nonlinear Clausius-Clapeyron relationship between temperature and saturation vapor pressure, small variations in temperature can have large impacts on VPD, and therefore drought, particularly in warm, dry areas and particularly during the warm season. It is also clear that VPD and drought affect forest fire nonlinearly, as incremental drying leads to increasingly large burned areas. Forest fire is also affected by fuel amount and connectivity, which are promoted by vegetation growth in previous years, which is in turn promoted by lack of drought, highlighting the importance of nuances in the sequencing of natural interannual climate variations in modulating the impacts of drought on wildfire. The many factors affecting forest fire, and the nonlinearities embedded within the climate and wildfire systems, cause interannual variability in forest-fire area and frequency to be wildly variable and strongly affected by internal climate variability. In addition, warming over the past century has produced a background increase in forest fire frequency and area in many regions. In this talk I focus on the western United States and will explore whether the relationships between internal climate variability on forest fire area have been amplified by the effects of warming as a result of the compounding nonlinearities described above. I will then explore what this means for future burned area in the western United States and make the case that uncertainties in the future global greenhouse gas emissions trajectory, model projections of mean temperatures, model projections of precipitation, and model projections of natural climate variability translate to very large uncertainties in the effects of future climate variability on forest fire area in the United States and globally.

Predicting adsorptive removal of chlorophenol from aqueous solution using artificial intelligence based modeling approaches.

PubMed

Singh, Kunwar P; Gupta, Shikha; Ojha, Priyanka; Rai, Premanjali

2013-04-01

The research aims to develop artificial intelligence (AI)-based model to predict the adsorptive removal of 2-chlorophenol (CP) in aqueous solution by coconut shell carbon (CSC) using four operational variables (pH of solution, adsorbate concentration, temperature, and contact time), and to investigate their effects on the adsorption process. Accordingly, based on a factorial design, 640 batch experiments were conducted. Nonlinearities in experimental data were checked using Brock-Dechert-Scheimkman (BDS) statistics. Five nonlinear models were constructed to predict the adsorptive removal of CP in aqueous solution by CSC using four variables as input. Performances of the constructed models were evaluated and compared using statistical criteria. BDS statistics revealed strong nonlinearity in experimental data. Performance of all the models constructed here was satisfactory. Radial basis function network (RBFN) and multilayer perceptron network (MLPN) models performed better than generalized regression neural network, support vector machines, and gene expression programming models. Sensitivity analysis revealed that the contact time had highest effect on adsorption followed by the solution pH, temperature, and CP concentration. The study concluded that all the models constructed here were capable of capturing the nonlinearity in data. A better generalization and predictive performance of RBFN and MLPN models suggested that these can be used to predict the adsorption of CP in aqueous solution using CSC.

Investigation on the Nonlinear Control System of High-Pressure Common Rail (HPCR) System in a Diesel Engine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, Le; Mao, Xiaobing; Ma, Zhexuan

2018-02-01

This study first constructed the nonlinear mathematical model of the high-pressure common rail (HPCR) system in the diesel engine. Then, the nonlinear state transformation was performed using the flow’s calculation and the standard state space equation was acquired. Based on sliding-mode variable structure control (SMVSC) theory, a sliding-mode controller for nonlinear systems was designed for achieving the control of common rail pressure and the diesel engine’s rotational speed. Finally, on the simulation platform of MATLAB, the designed nonlinear HPCR system was simulated. The simulation results demonstrate that sliding-mode variable structure control algorithm shows favorable control performances and overcome the shortcomings of traditional PID control in overshoot, parameter adjustment, system precision, adjustment time and ascending time.

Generation of linear dynamic models from a digital nonlinear simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Daniele, C. J.; Krosel, S. M.

1979-01-01

The results and methodology used to derive linear models from a nonlinear simulation are presented. It is shown that averaged positive and negative perturbations in the state variables can reduce numerical errors in finite difference, partial derivative approximations and, in the control inputs, can better approximate the system response in both directions about the operating point. Both explicit and implicit formulations are addressed. Linear models are derived for the F 100 engine, and comparisons of transients are made with the nonlinear simulation. The problem of startup transients in the nonlinear simulation in making these comparisons is addressed. Also, reduction of the linear models is investigated using the modal and normal techniques. Reduced-order models of the F 100 are derived and compared with the full-state models.

A non-linear data mining parameter selection algorithm for continuous variables

PubMed Central

Razavi, Marianne; Brady, Sean

2017-01-01

In this article, we propose a new data mining algorithm, by which one can both capture the non-linearity in data and also find the best subset model. To produce an enhanced subset of the original variables, a preferred selection method should have the potential of adding a supplementary level of regression analysis that would capture complex relationships in the data via mathematical transformation of the predictors and exploration of synergistic effects of combined variables. The method that we present here has the potential to produce an optimal subset of variables, rendering the overall process of model selection more efficient. This algorithm introduces interpretable parameters by transforming the original inputs and also a faithful fit to the data. The core objective of this paper is to introduce a new estimation technique for the classical least square regression framework. This new automatic variable transformation and model selection method could offer an optimal and stable model that minimizes the mean square error and variability, while combining all possible subset selection methodology with the inclusion variable transformations and interactions. Moreover, this method controls multicollinearity, leading to an optimal set of explanatory variables. PMID:29131829

Comparing and improving proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) to reduce the complexity of groundwater models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gosses, Moritz; Nowak, Wolfgang; Wöhling, Thomas

2017-04-01

Physically-based modeling is a wide-spread tool in understanding and management of natural systems. With the high complexity of many such models and the huge amount of model runs necessary for parameter estimation and uncertainty analysis, overall run times can be prohibitively long even on modern computer systems. An encouraging strategy to tackle this problem are model reduction methods. In this contribution, we compare different proper orthogonal decomposition (POD, Siade et al. (2010)) methods and their potential applications to groundwater models. The POD method performs a singular value decomposition on system states as simulated by the complex (e.g., PDE-based) groundwater model taken at several time-steps, so-called snapshots. The singular vectors with the highest information content resulting from this decomposition are then used as a basis for projection of the system of model equations onto a subspace of much lower dimensionality than the original complex model, thereby greatly reducing complexity and accelerating run times. In its original form, this method is only applicable to linear problems. Many real-world groundwater models are non-linear, tough. These non-linearities are introduced either through model structure (unconfined aquifers) or boundary conditions (certain Cauchy boundaries, like rivers with variable connection to the groundwater table). To date, applications of POD focused on groundwater models simulating pumping tests in confined aquifers with constant head boundaries. In contrast, POD model reduction either greatly looses accuracy or does not significantly reduce model run time if the above-mentioned non-linearities are introduced. We have also found that variable Dirichlet boundaries are problematic for POD model reduction. An extension to the POD method, called POD-DEIM, has been developed for non-linear groundwater models by Stanko et al. (2016). This method uses spatial interpolation points to build the equation system in the reduced model space, thereby allowing the recalculation of system matrices at every time-step necessary for non-linear models while retaining the speed of the reduced model. This makes POD-DEIM applicable for groundwater models simulating unconfined aquifers. However, in our analysis, the method struggled to reproduce variable river boundaries accurately and gave no advantage for variable Dirichlet boundaries compared to the original POD method. We have developed another extension for POD that targets to address these remaining problems by performing a second POD operation on the model matrix on the left-hand side of the equation. The method aims to at least reproduce the accuracy of the other methods where they are applicable while outperforming them for setups with changing river boundaries or variable Dirichlet boundaries. We compared the new extension with original POD and POD-DEIM for different combinations of model structures and boundary conditions. The new method shows the potential of POD extensions for applications to non-linear groundwater systems and complex boundary conditions that go beyond the current, relatively limited range of applications. References: Siade, A. J., Putti, M., and Yeh, W. W.-G. (2010). Snapshot selection for groundwater model reduction using proper orthogonal decomposition. Water Resour. Res., 46(8):W08539. Stanko, Z. P., Boyce, S. E., and Yeh, W. W.-G. (2016). Nonlinear model reduction of unconfined groundwater flow using pod and deim. Advances in Water Resources, 97:130 - 143.

Nonlinear Inference in Partially Observed Physical Systems and Deep Neural Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rozdeba, Paul J.

The problem of model state and parameter estimation is a significant challenge in nonlinear systems. Due to practical considerations of experimental design, it is often the case that physical systems are partially observed, meaning that data is only available for a subset of the degrees of freedom required to fully model the observed system's behaviors and, ultimately, predict future observations. Estimation in this context is highly complicated by the presence of chaos, stochasticity, and measurement noise in dynamical systems. One of the aims of this dissertation is to simultaneously analyze state and parameter estimation in as a regularized inverse problem, where the introduction of a model makes it possible to reverse the forward problem of partial, noisy observation; and as a statistical inference problem using data assimilation to transfer information from measurements to the model states and parameters. Ultimately these two formulations achieve the same goal. Similar aspects that appear in both are highlighted as a means for better understanding the structure of the nonlinear inference problem. An alternative approach to data assimilation that uses model reduction is then examined as a way to eliminate unresolved nonlinear gating variables from neuron models. In this formulation, only measured variables enter into the model, and the resulting errors are themselves modeled by nonlinear stochastic processes with memory. Finally, variational annealing, a data assimilation method previously applied to dynamical systems, is introduced as a potentially useful tool for understanding deep neural network training in machine learning by exploiting similarities between the two problems.

Sensitivity analysis and nonlinearity assessment of steam cracking furnace process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosli, M. N.; Sudibyo, Aziz, N.

2017-11-01

In this paper, sensitivity analysis and nonlinearity assessment of cracking furnace process are presented. For the sensitivity analysis, the fractional factorial design method is employed as a method to analyze the effect of input parameters, which consist of four manipulated variables and two disturbance variables, to the output variables and to identify the interaction between each parameter. The result of the factorial design method is used as a screening method to reduce the number of parameters, and subsequently, reducing the complexity of the model. It shows that out of six input parameters, four parameters are significant. After the screening is completed, step test is performed on the significant input parameters to assess the degree of nonlinearity of the system. The result shows that the system is highly nonlinear with respect to changes in an air-to-fuel ratio (AFR) and feed composition.

Highway traffic estimation of improved precision using the derivative-free nonlinear Kalman Filter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rigatos, Gerasimos; Siano, Pierluigi; Zervos, Nikolaos; Melkikh, Alexey

2015-12-01

The paper proves that the PDE dynamic model of the highway traffic is a differentially flat one and by applying spatial discretization its shows that the model's transformation into an equivalent linear canonical state-space form is possible. For the latter representation of the traffic's dynamics, state estimation is performed with the use of the Derivative-free nonlinear Kalman Filter. The proposed filter consists of the Kalman Filter recursion applied on the transformed state-space model of the highway traffic. Moreover, it makes use of an inverse transformation, based again on differential flatness theory which enables to obtain estimates of the state variables of the initial nonlinear PDE model. By avoiding approximate linearizations and the truncation of nonlinear terms from the PDE model of the traffic's dynamics the proposed filtering methods outperforms, in terms of accuracy, other nonlinear estimators such as the Extended Kalman Filter. The article's theoretical findings are confirmed through simulation experiments.

Nonlinear transient analysis by energy minimization: A theoretical basis for the ACTION computer code. [predicting the response of a lightweight aircraft during a crash

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kamat, M. P.

1980-01-01

The formulation basis for establishing the static or dynamic equilibrium configurations of finite element models of structures which may behave in the nonlinear range are provided. With both geometric and time independent material nonlinearities included, the development is restricted to simple one and two dimensional finite elements which are regarded as being the basic elements for modeling full aircraft-like structures under crash conditions. Representations of a rigid link and an impenetrable contact plane are added to the deformation model so that any number of nodes of the finite element model may be connected by a rigid link or may contact the plane. Equilibrium configurations are derived as the stationary conditions of a potential function of the generalized nodal variables of the model. Minimization of the nonlinear potential function is achieved by using the best current variable metric update formula for use in unconstrained minimization. Powell's conjugate gradient algorithm, which offers very low storage requirements at some slight increase in the total number of calculations, is the other alternative algorithm to be used for extremely large scale problems.

Non-linear modelling and control of semi-active suspensions with variable damping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Huang; Long, Chen; Yuan, Chao-Chun; Jiang, Hao-Bin

2013-10-01

Electro-hydraulic dampers can provide variable damping force that is modulated by varying the command current; furthermore, they offer advantages such as lower power, rapid response, lower cost, and simple hardware. However, accurate characterisation of non-linear f-v properties in pre-yield and force saturation in post-yield is still required. Meanwhile, traditional linear or quarter vehicle models contain various non-linearities. The development of a multi-body dynamics model is very complex, and therefore, SIMPACK was used with suitable improvements for model development and numerical simulations. A semi-active suspension was built based on a belief-desire-intention (BDI)-agent model framework. Vehicle handling dynamics were analysed, and a co-simulation analysis was conducted in SIMPACK and MATLAB to evaluate the BDI-agent controller. The design effectively improved ride comfort, handling stability, and driving safety. A rapid control prototype was built based on dSPACE to conduct a real vehicle test. The test and simulation results were consistent, which verified the simulation.

Nonlinear time series modeling and forecasting the seismic data of the Hindu Kush region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, Muhammad Yousaf; Mittnik, Stefan

2018-01-01

In this study, we extended the application of linear and nonlinear time models in the field of earthquake seismology and examined the out-of-sample forecast accuracy of linear Autoregressive (AR), Autoregressive Conditional Duration (ACD), Self-Exciting Threshold Autoregressive (SETAR), Threshold Autoregressive (TAR), Logistic Smooth Transition Autoregressive (LSTAR), Additive Autoregressive (AAR), and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models for seismic data of the Hindu Kush region. We also extended the previous studies by using Vector Autoregressive (VAR) and Threshold Vector Autoregressive (TVAR) models and compared their forecasting accuracy with linear AR model. Unlike previous studies that typically consider the threshold model specifications by using internal threshold variable, we specified these models with external transition variables and compared their out-of-sample forecasting performance with the linear benchmark AR model. The modeling results show that time series models used in the present study are capable of capturing the dynamic structure present in the seismic data. The point forecast results indicate that the AR model generally outperforms the nonlinear models. However, in some cases, threshold models with external threshold variables specification produce more accurate forecasts, indicating that specification of threshold time series models is of crucial importance. For raw seismic data, the ACD model does not show an improved out-of-sample forecasting performance over the linear AR model. The results indicate that the AR model is the best forecasting device to model and forecast the raw seismic data of the Hindu Kush region.

Nonlinear internal waves in the Gulf of Guinea: observations and modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baquet, Emeric; Pichon, Annick; Raynaud, Stephane; Carton, Xavier

2017-04-01

Nonlinear internal waves are known hazards to offshore operations. They have been observed at different locations around the world and have been studied for a long time in Southeast Asia. However in West Africa, they are less documented. This research presents original data of currentmeters in northeastern part of the Gulf of Guinea, in the vicinity of offshore oil platforms. Nonlinear internal waves were observed. Their characteristics were determined under the assumptions of the weakly nonlinear and non-hydrostatic Korteweg-de Vries equation. Their directions of propagation were studied to determine generation zones. The monthly distribution was shown to assess seasonal variability. Their main generation mechanism was the barotropic tides over the shelf break, but other processes were at work too. The seasonal variability due to the monsoon, river discharges also played a part in the nonlinear internal wave dynamics. Since several processes, of different time and space scales, are at work, interactions between them must be investigated. Thus, a two-layered numerical model was used to reproduce nonlinear internal waves. Sensitivity experiments were made, in order to investigate the balance between nonlinearities, Coriolis and non-hydrostatic dispersions. The impact of non-uniform bathymetry and the presence of another flow in addition to the tides were also tested.

A data assimilation technique to account for the nonlinear dependence of scattering microwave observations of precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haddad, Z. S.; Steward, J. L.; Tseng, H.-C.; Vukicevic, T.; Chen, S.-H.; Hristova-Veleva, S.

2015-06-01

Satellite microwave observations of rain, whether from radar or passive radiometers, depend in a very crucial way on the vertical distribution of the condensed water mass and on the types and sizes of the hydrometeors in the volume resolved by the instrument. This crucial dependence is nonlinear, with different types and orders of nonlinearity that are due to differences in the absorption/emission and scattering signatures at the different instrument frequencies. Because it is not monotone as a function of the underlying condensed water mass, the nonlinearity requires great care in its representation in the observation operator, as the inevitable uncertainties in the numerous precipitation variables are not directly convertible into an additive white uncertainty in the forward calculated observations. In particular, when attempting to assimilate such data into a cloud-permitting model, special care needs to be applied to describe and quantify the expected uncertainty in the observations operator in order not to turn the implicit white additive uncertainty on the input values into complicated biases in the calculated radiances. One approach would be to calculate the means and covariances of the nonlinearly calculated radiances given an a priori joint distribution for the input variables. This would be a very resource-intensive proposal if performed in real time. We propose a representation of the observation operator based on performing this moment calculation off line, with a dimensionality reduction step to allow for the effective calculation of the observation operator and the associated covariance in real time during the assimilation. The approach is applicable to other remotely sensed observations that depend nonlinearly on model variables, including wind vector fields. The approach has been successfully applied to the case of tropical cyclones, where the organization of the system helps in identifying the dimensionality-reducing variables.

User's manual for interactive LINEAR: A FORTRAN program to derive linear aircraft models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Antoniewicz, Robert F.; Duke, Eugene L.; Patterson, Brian P.

1988-01-01

An interactive FORTRAN program that provides the user with a powerful and flexible tool for the linearization of aircraft aerodynamic models is documented in this report. The program LINEAR numerically determines a linear system model using nonlinear equations of motion and a user-supplied linear or nonlinear aerodynamic model. The nonlinear equations of motion used are six-degree-of-freedom equations with stationary atmosphere and flat, nonrotating earth assumptions. The system model determined by LINEAR consists of matrices for both the state and observation equations. The program has been designed to allow easy selection and definition of the state, control, and observation variables to be used in a particular model.

User's manual for LINEAR, a FORTRAN program to derive linear aircraft models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Duke, Eugene L.; Patterson, Brian P.; Antoniewicz, Robert F.

1987-01-01

This report documents a FORTRAN program that provides a powerful and flexible tool for the linearization of aircraft models. The program LINEAR numerically determines a linear system model using nonlinear equations of motion and a user-supplied nonlinear aerodynamic model. The system model determined by LINEAR consists of matrices for both state and observation equations. The program has been designed to allow easy selection and definition of the state, control, and observation variables to be used in a particular model.

Linear dynamical modes as new variables for data-driven ENSO forecast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gavrilov, Andrey; Seleznev, Aleksei; Mukhin, Dmitry; Loskutov, Evgeny; Feigin, Alexander; Kurths, Juergen

2018-05-01

A new data-driven model for analysis and prediction of spatially distributed time series is proposed. The model is based on a linear dynamical mode (LDM) decomposition of the observed data which is derived from a recently developed nonlinear dimensionality reduction approach. The key point of this approach is its ability to take into account simple dynamical properties of the observed system by means of revealing the system's dominant time scales. The LDMs are used as new variables for empirical construction of a nonlinear stochastic evolution operator. The method is applied to the sea surface temperature anomaly field in the tropical belt where the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the main mode of variability. The advantage of LDMs versus traditionally used empirical orthogonal function decomposition is demonstrated for this data. Specifically, it is shown that the new model has a competitive ENSO forecast skill in comparison with the other existing ENSO models.

Using waveform information in nonlinear data assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rey, Daniel; Eldridge, Michael; Morone, Uriel; Abarbanel, Henry D. I.; Parlitz, Ulrich; Schumann-Bischoff, Jan

2014-12-01

Information in measurements of a nonlinear dynamical system can be transferred to a quantitative model of the observed system to establish its fixed parameters and unobserved state variables. After this learning period is complete, one may predict the model response to new forces and, when successful, these predictions will match additional observations. This adjustment process encounters problems when the model is nonlinear and chaotic because dynamical instability impedes the transfer of information from the data to the model when the number of measurements at each observation time is insufficient. We discuss the use of information in the waveform of the data, realized through a time delayed collection of measurements, to provide additional stability and accuracy to this search procedure. Several examples are explored, including a few familiar nonlinear dynamical systems and small networks of Colpitts oscillators.

Extracting Leading Nonlinear Modes of Changing Climate From Global SST Time Series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mukhin, D.; Gavrilov, A.; Loskutov, E. M.; Feigin, A. M.; Kurths, J.

2017-12-01

Data-driven modeling of climate requires adequate principal variables extracted from observed high-dimensional data. For constructing such variables it is needed to find spatial-temporal patterns explaining a substantial part of the variability and comprising all dynamically related time series from the data. The difficulties of this task rise from the nonlinearity and non-stationarity of the climate dynamical system. The nonlinearity leads to insufficiency of linear methods of data decomposition for separating different processes entangled in the observed time series. On the other hand, various forcings, both anthropogenic and natural, make the dynamics non-stationary, and we should be able to describe the response of the system to such forcings in order to separate the modes explaining the internal variability. The method we present is aimed to overcome both these problems. The method is based on the Nonlinear Dynamical Mode (NDM) decomposition [1,2], but takes into account external forcing signals. An each mode depends on hidden, unknown a priori, time series which, together with external forcing time series, are mapped onto data space. Finding both the hidden signals and the mapping allows us to study the evolution of the modes' structure in changing external conditions and to compare the roles of the internal variability and forcing in the observed behavior. The method is used for extracting of the principal modes of SST variability on inter-annual and multidecadal time scales accounting the external forcings such as CO2, variations of the solar activity and volcanic activity. The structure of the revealed teleconnection patterns as well as their forecast under different CO2 emission scenarios are discussed.[1] Mukhin, D., Gavrilov, A., Feigin, A., Loskutov, E., & Kurths, J. (2015). Principal nonlinear dynamical modes of climate variability. Scientific Reports, 5, 15510. [2] Gavrilov, A., Mukhin, D., Loskutov, E., Volodin, E., Feigin, A., & Kurths, J. (2016). Method for reconstructing nonlinear modes with adaptive structure from multidimensional data. Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, 26(12), 123101.

Grey-box state-space identification of nonlinear mechanical vibrations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noël, J. P.; Schoukens, J.

2018-05-01

The present paper deals with the identification of nonlinear mechanical vibrations. A grey-box, or semi-physical, nonlinear state-space representation is introduced, expressing the nonlinear basis functions using a limited number of measured output variables. This representation assumes that the observed nonlinearities are localised in physical space, which is a generic case in mechanics. A two-step identification procedure is derived for the grey-box model parameters, integrating nonlinear subspace initialisation and weighted least-squares optimisation. The complete procedure is applied to an electrical circuit mimicking the behaviour of a single-input, single-output (SISO) nonlinear mechanical system and to a single-input, multiple-output (SIMO) geometrically nonlinear beam structure.

Control of variable speed variable pitch wind turbine based on a disturbance observer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, Haijun; Lei, Xin

2017-11-01

In this paper, a novel sliding mode controller based on disturbance observer (DOB) to optimize the efficiency of variable speed variable pitch (VSVP) wind turbine is developed and analyzed. Due to the highly nonlinearity of the VSVP system, the model is linearly processed to obtain the state space model of the system. Then, a conventional sliding mode controller is designed and a DOB is added to estimate wind speed. The proposed control strategy can successfully deal with the random nature of wind speed, the nonlinearity of VSVP system, the uncertainty of parameters and external disturbance. Via adding the observer to the sliding mode controller, it can greatly reduce the chattering produced by the sliding mode switching gain. The simulation results show that the proposed control system has the effectiveness and robustness.

A novel approach for prediction of tacrolimus blood concentration in liver transplantation patients in the intensive care unit through support vector regression.

PubMed

Van Looy, Stijn; Verplancke, Thierry; Benoit, Dominique; Hoste, Eric; Van Maele, Georges; De Turck, Filip; Decruyenaere, Johan

2007-01-01

Tacrolimus is an important immunosuppressive drug for organ transplantation patients. It has a narrow therapeutic range, toxic side effects, and a blood concentration with wide intra- and interindividual variability. Hence, it is of the utmost importance to monitor tacrolimus blood concentration, thereby ensuring clinical effect and avoiding toxic side effects. Prediction models for tacrolimus blood concentration can improve clinical care by optimizing monitoring of these concentrations, especially in the initial phase after transplantation during intensive care unit (ICU) stay. This is the first study in the ICU in which support vector machines, as a new data modeling technique, are investigated and tested in their prediction capabilities of tacrolimus blood concentration. Linear support vector regression (SVR) and nonlinear radial basis function (RBF) SVR are compared with multiple linear regression (MLR). Tacrolimus blood concentrations, together with 35 other relevant variables from 50 liver transplantation patients, were extracted from our ICU database. This resulted in a dataset of 457 blood samples, on average between 9 and 10 samples per patient, finally resulting in a database of more than 16,000 data values. Nonlinear RBF SVR, linear SVR, and MLR were performed after selection of clinically relevant input variables and model parameters. Differences between observed and predicted tacrolimus blood concentrations were calculated. Prediction accuracy of the three methods was compared after fivefold cross-validation (Friedman test and Wilcoxon signed rank analysis). Linear SVR and nonlinear RBF SVR had mean absolute differences between observed and predicted tacrolimus blood concentrations of 2.31 ng/ml (standard deviation [SD] 2.47) and 2.38 ng/ml (SD 2.49), respectively. MLR had a mean absolute difference of 2.73 ng/ml (SD 3.79). The difference between linear SVR and MLR was statistically significant (p < 0.001). RBF SVR had the advantage of requiring only 2 input variables to perform this prediction in comparison to 15 and 16 variables needed by linear SVR and MLR, respectively. This is an indication of the superior prediction capability of nonlinear SVR. Prediction of tacrolimus blood concentration with linear and nonlinear SVR was excellent, and accuracy was superior in comparison with an MLR model.

New insights into soil temperature time series modeling: linear or nonlinear?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonakdari, Hossein; Moeeni, Hamid; Ebtehaj, Isa; Zeynoddin, Mohammad; Mahoammadian, Abdolmajid; Gharabaghi, Bahram

2018-03-01

Soil temperature (ST) is an important dynamic parameter, whose prediction is a major research topic in various fields including agriculture because ST has a critical role in hydrological processes at the soil surface. In this study, a new linear methodology is proposed based on stochastic methods for modeling daily soil temperature (DST). With this approach, the ST series components are determined to carry out modeling and spectral analysis. The results of this process are compared with two linear methods based on seasonal standardization and seasonal differencing in terms of four DST series. The series used in this study were measured at two stations, Champaign and Springfield, at depths of 10 and 20 cm. The results indicate that in all ST series reviewed, the periodic term is the most robust among all components. According to a comparison of the three methods applied to analyze the various series components, it appears that spectral analysis combined with stochastic methods outperformed the seasonal standardization and seasonal differencing methods. In addition to comparing the proposed methodology with linear methods, the ST modeling results were compared with the two nonlinear methods in two forms: considering hydrological variables (HV) as input variables and DST modeling as a time series. In a previous study at the mentioned sites, Kim and Singh Theor Appl Climatol 118:465-479, (2014) applied the popular Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) neural network and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) nonlinear methods and considered HV as input variables. The comparison results signify that the relative error projected in estimating DST by the proposed methodology was about 6%, while this value with MLP and ANFIS was over 15%. Moreover, MLP and ANFIS models were employed for DST time series modeling. Due to these models' relatively inferior performance to the proposed methodology, two hybrid models were implemented: the weights and membership function of MLP and ANFIS (respectively) were optimized with the particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm in conjunction with the wavelet transform and nonlinear methods (Wavelet-MLP & Wavelet-ANFIS). A comparison of the proposed methodology with individual and hybrid nonlinear models in predicting DST time series indicates the lowest Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) index value, which considers model simplicity and accuracy simultaneously at different depths and stations. The methodology presented in this study can thus serve as an excellent alternative to complex nonlinear methods that are normally employed to examine DST.

Vagal-dependent nonlinear variability in the respiratory pattern of anesthetized, spontaneously breathing rats

PubMed Central

Dhingra, R. R.; Jacono, F. J.; Fishman, M.; Loparo, K. A.; Rybak, I. A.

2011-01-01

Physiological rhythms, including respiration, exhibit endogenous variability associated with health, and deviations from this are associated with disease. Specific changes in the linear and nonlinear sources of breathing variability have not been investigated. In this study, we used information theory-based techniques, combined with surrogate data testing, to quantify and characterize the vagal-dependent nonlinear pattern variability in urethane-anesthetized, spontaneously breathing adult rats. Surrogate data sets preserved the amplitude distribution and linear correlations of the original data set, but nonlinear correlation structure in the data was removed. Differences in mutual information and sample entropy between original and surrogate data sets indicated the presence of deterministic nonlinear or stochastic non-Gaussian variability. With vagi intact (n = 11), the respiratory cycle exhibited significant nonlinear behavior in templates of points separated by time delays ranging from one sample to one cycle length. After vagotomy (n = 6), even though nonlinear variability was reduced significantly, nonlinear properties were still evident at various time delays. Nonlinear deterministic variability did not change further after subsequent bilateral microinjection of MK-801, an N-methyl-d-aspartate receptor antagonist, in the Kölliker-Fuse nuclei. Reversing the sequence (n = 5), blocking N-methyl-d-aspartate receptors bilaterally in the dorsolateral pons significantly decreased nonlinear variability in the respiratory pattern, even with the vagi intact, and subsequent vagotomy did not change nonlinear variability. Thus both vagal and dorsolateral pontine influences contribute to nonlinear respiratory pattern variability. Furthermore, breathing dynamics of the intact system are mutually dependent on vagal and pontine sources of nonlinear complexity. Understanding the structure and modulation of variability provides insight into disease effects on respiratory patterning. PMID:21527661

Control of AUVs using differential flatness theory and the derivative-free nonlinear Kalman Filter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rigatos, Gerasimos; Raffo, Guilerme

2015-12-01

The paper proposes nonlinear control and filtering for Autonomous Underwater Vessels (AUVs) based on differential flatness theory and on the use of the Derivative-free nonlinear Kalman Filter. First, it is shown that the 6-DOF dynamic model of the AUV is a differentially flat one. This enables its transformation into the linear canonical (Brunovsky) form and facilitates the design of a state feedback controller. A problem that has to be dealt with is the uncertainty about the parameters of the AUV's dynamic model, as well the external perturbations which affect its motion. To cope with this, it is proposed to use a disturbance observer which is based on the Derivative-free nonlinear Kalman Filter. The considered filtering method consists of the standard Kalman Filter recursion applied on the linearized model of the vessel and of an inverse transformation based on differential flatness theory, which enables to obtain estimates of the state variables of the initial nonlinear model of the vessel. The Kalman Filter-based disturbance observer performs simultaneous estimation of the non-measurable state variables of the AUV and of the perturbation terms that affect its dynamics. By estimating such disturbances, their compensation is also succeeded through suitable modification of the feedback control input. The efficiency of the proposed AUV control and estimation scheme is confirmed through simulation experiments.

The Use of Linear Instrumental Variables Methods in Health Services Research and Health Economics: A Cautionary Note

PubMed Central

Terza, Joseph V; Bradford, W David; Dismuke, Clara E

2008-01-01

Objective To investigate potential bias in the use of the conventional linear instrumental variables (IV) method for the estimation of causal effects in inherently nonlinear regression settings. Data Sources Smoking Supplement to the 1979 National Health Interview Survey, National Longitudinal Alcohol Epidemiologic Survey, and simulated data. Study Design Potential bias from the use of the linear IV method in nonlinear models is assessed via simulation studies and real world data analyses in two commonly encountered regression setting: (1) models with a nonnegative outcome (e.g., a count) and a continuous endogenous regressor; and (2) models with a binary outcome and a binary endogenous regressor. Principle Findings The simulation analyses show that substantial bias in the estimation of causal effects can result from applying the conventional IV method in inherently nonlinear regression settings. Moreover, the bias is not attenuated as the sample size increases. This point is further illustrated in the survey data analyses in which IV-based estimates of the relevant causal effects diverge substantially from those obtained with appropriate nonlinear estimation methods. Conclusions We offer this research as a cautionary note to those who would opt for the use of linear specifications in inherently nonlinear settings involving endogeneity. PMID:18546544

NLSCIDNT user's guide maximum likehood parameter identification computer program with nonlinear rotorcraft model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1979-01-01

A nonlinear, maximum likelihood, parameter identification computer program (NLSCIDNT) is described which evaluates rotorcraft stability and control coefficients from flight test data. The optimal estimates of the parameters (stability and control coefficients) are determined (identified) by minimizing the negative log likelihood cost function. The minimization technique is the Levenberg-Marquardt method, which behaves like the steepest descent method when it is far from the minimum and behaves like the modified Newton-Raphson method when it is nearer the minimum. Twenty-one states and 40 measurement variables are modeled, and any subset may be selected. States which are not integrated may be fixed at an input value, or time history data may be substituted for the state in the equations of motion. Any aerodynamic coefficient may be expressed as a nonlinear polynomial function of selected 'expansion variables'.

Diagnostic Procedures for Detecting Nonlinear Relationships between Latent Variables

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bauer, Daniel J.; Baldasaro, Ruth E.; Gottfredson, Nisha C.

2012-01-01

Structural equation models are commonly used to estimate relationships between latent variables. Almost universally, the fitted models specify that these relationships are linear in form. This assumption is rarely checked empirically, largely for lack of appropriate diagnostic techniques. This article presents and evaluates two procedures that can…

Separation of the low-frequency atmospheric variability into non-Gaussian multidimensional sources by Independent Subspace Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pires, Carlos; Ribeiro, Andreia

2016-04-01

An efficient nonlinear method of statistical source separation of space-distributed non-Gaussian distributed data is proposed. The method relies in the so called Independent Subspace Analysis (ISA), being tested on a long time-series of the stream-function field of an atmospheric quasi-geostrophic 3-level model (QG3) simulating the winter's monthly variability of the Northern Hemisphere. ISA generalizes the Independent Component Analysis (ICA) by looking for multidimensional and minimally dependent, uncorrelated and non-Gaussian distributed statistical sources among the rotated projections or subspaces of the multivariate probability distribution of the leading principal components of the working field whereas ICA restrict to scalar sources. The rationale of that technique relies upon the projection pursuit technique, looking for data projections of enhanced interest. In order to accomplish the decomposition, we maximize measures of the sources' non-Gaussianity by contrast functions which are given by squares of nonlinear, cross-cumulant-based correlations involving the variables spanning the sources. Therefore sources are sought matching certain nonlinear data structures. The maximized contrast function is built in such a way that it provides the minimization of the mean square of the residuals of certain nonlinear regressions. The issuing residuals, followed by spherization, provide a new set of nonlinear variable changes that are at once uncorrelated, quasi-independent and quasi-Gaussian, representing an advantage with respect to the Independent Components (scalar sources) obtained by ICA where the non-Gaussianity is concentrated into the non-Gaussian scalar sources. The new scalar sources obtained by the above process encompass the attractor's curvature thus providing improved nonlinear model indices of the low-frequency atmospheric variability which is useful since large circulation indices are nonlinearly correlated. The non-Gaussian tested sources (dyads and triads, respectively of two and three dimensions) lead to a dense data concentration along certain curves or surfaces, nearby which the clusters' centroids of the joint probability density function tend to be located. That favors a better splitting of the QG3 atmospheric model's weather regimes: the positive and negative phases of the Arctic Oscillation and positive and negative phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation. The leading model's non-Gaussian dyad is associated to a positive correlation between: 1) the squared anomaly of the extratropical jet-stream and 2) the meridional jet-stream meandering. Triadic sources coming from maximized third-order cross cumulants between pairwise uncorrelated components reveal situations of triadic wave resonance and nonlinear triadic teleconnections, only possible thanks to joint non-Gaussianity. That kind of triadic synergies are accounted for an Information-Theoretic measure: the Interaction Information. The dominant model's triad occurs between anomalies of: 1) the North Pole anomaly pressure 2) the jet-stream intensity at the Eastern North-American boundary and 3) the jet-stream intensity at the Eastern Asian boundary. Publication supported by project FCT UID/GEO/50019/2013 - Instituto Dom Luiz.

Understanding climate impacts on vegetation using a spatiotemporal non-linear Granger causality framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papagiannopoulou, Christina; Decubber, Stijn; Miralles, Diego; Demuzere, Matthias; Dorigo, Wouter; Verhoest, Niko; Waegeman, Willem

2017-04-01

Satellite data provide an abundance of information about crucial climatic and environmental variables. These data - consisting of global records, spanning up to 35 years and having the form of multivariate time series with different spatial and temporal resolutions - enable the study of key climate-vegetation interactions. Although methods which are based on correlations and linear models are typically used for this purpose, their assumptions for linearity about the climate-vegetation relationships are too simplistic. Therefore, we adopt a recently proposed non-linear Granger causality analysis [1], in which we incorporate spatial information, concatenating data from neighboring pixels and training a joint model on the combined data. Experimental results based on global data sets show that considering non-linear relationships leads to a higher explained variance of past vegetation dynamics, compared to simple linear models. Our approach consists of several steps. First, we compile an extensive database [1], which includes multiple data sets for land surface temperature, near-surface air temperature, surface radiation, precipitation, snow water equivalents and surface soil moisture. Based on this database, high-level features are constructed and considered as predictors in our machine-learning framework. These high-level features include (de-trended) seasonal anomalies, lagged variables, past cumulative variables, and extreme indices, all calculated based on the raw climatic data. Second, we apply a spatiotemporal non-linear Granger causality framework - in which the linear predictive model is substituted for a non-linear machine learning algorithm - in order to assess which of these predictor variables Granger-cause vegetation dynamics at each 1° pixel. We use the de-trended anomalies of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to characterize vegetation, being the target variable of our framework. Experimental results indicate that climate strongly (Granger-)causes vegetation dynamics in most regions globally. More specifically, water availability is the most dominant vegetation driver, being the dominant vegetation driver in 54% of the vegetated surface. Furthermore, our results show that precipitation and soil moisture have prolonged impacts on vegetation in semiarid regions, with up to 10% of additional explained variance on the vegetation dynamics occurring three months later. Finally, hydro-climatic extremes seem to have a remarkable impact on vegetation, since they also explain up to 10% of additional variance of vegetation in certain regions despite their infrequent occurrence. References [1] Papagiannopoulou, C., Miralles, D. G., Verhoest, N. E. C., Dorigo, W. A., and Waegeman, W.: A non-linear Granger causality framework to investigate climate-vegetation dynamics, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., doi:10.5194/gmd-2016-266, in review, 2016.

A network model of successive partitioning-limited solute diffusion through the stratum corneum.

PubMed

Schumm, Phillip; Scoglio, Caterina M; van der Merwe, Deon

2010-02-07

As the most exposed point of contact with the external environment, the skin is an important barrier to many chemical exposures, including medications, potentially toxic chemicals and cosmetics. Traditional dermal absorption models treat the stratum corneum lipids as a homogenous medium through which solutes diffuse according to Fick's first law of diffusion. This approach does not explain non-linear absorption and irregular distribution patterns within the stratum corneum lipids as observed in experimental data. A network model, based on successive partitioning-limited solute diffusion through the stratum corneum, where the lipid structure is represented by a large, sparse, and regular network where nodes have variable characteristics, offers an alternative, efficient, and flexible approach to dermal absorption modeling that simulates non-linear absorption data patterns. Four model versions are presented: two linear models, which have unlimited node capacities, and two non-linear models, which have limited node capacities. The non-linear model outputs produce absorption to dose relationships that can be best characterized quantitatively by using power equations, similar to the equations used to describe non-linear experimental data.

The spike trains of inhibited pacemaker neurons seen through the magnifying glass of nonlinear analyses.

PubMed

Segundo, J P; Sugihara, G; Dixon, P; Stiber, M; Bersier, L F

1998-12-01

This communication describes the new information that may be obtained by applying nonlinear analytical techniques to neurobiological time-series. Specifically, we consider the sequence of interspike intervals Ti (the "timing") of trains recorded from synaptically inhibited crayfish pacemaker neurons. As reported earlier, different postsynaptic spike train forms (sets of timings with shared properties) are generated by varying the average rate and/or pattern (implying interval dispersions and sequences) of presynaptic spike trains. When the presynaptic train is Poisson (independent exponentially distributed intervals), the form is "Poisson-driven" (unperturbed and lengthened intervals succeed each other irregularly). When presynaptic trains are pacemaker (intervals practically equal), forms are either "p:q locked" (intervals repeat periodically), "intermittent" (mostly almost locked but disrupted irregularly), "phase walk throughs" (intermittencies with briefer regular portions), or "messy" (difficult to predict or describe succinctly). Messy trains are either "erratic" (some intervals natural and others lengthened irregularly) or "stammerings" (intervals are integral multiples of presynaptic intervals). The individual spike train forms were analysed using attractor reconstruction methods based on the lagged coordinates provided by successive intervals from the time-series Ti. Numerous models were evaluated in terms of their predictive performance by a trial-and-error procedure: the most successful model was taken as best reflecting the true nature of the system's attractor. Each form was characterized in terms of its dimensionality, nonlinearity and predictability. (1) The dimensionality of the underlying dynamical attractor was estimated by the minimum number of variables (coordinates Ti) required to model acceptably the system's dynamics, i.e. by the system's degrees of freedom. Each model tested was based on a different number of Ti; the smallest number whose predictions were judged successful provided the best integer approximation of the attractor's true dimension (not necessarily an integer). Dimensionalities from three to five provided acceptable fits. (2) The degree of nonlinearity was estimated by: (i) comparing the correlations between experimental results and data from linear and nonlinear models, and (ii) tuning model nonlinearity via a distance-weighting function and identifying the either local or global neighborhood size. Lockings were compatible with linear models and stammerings were marginal; nonlinear models were best for Poisson-driven, intermittent and erratic forms. (3) Finally, prediction accuracy was plotted against increasingly long sequences of intervals forecast: the accuracies for Poisson-driven, locked and stammering forms were invariant, revealing irregularities due to uncorrelated noise, but those of intermittent and messy erratic forms decayed rapidly, indicating an underlying deterministic process. The excellent reconstructions possible for messy erratic and for some intermittent forms are especially significant because of their relatively low dimensionality (around 4), high degree of nonlinearity and prediction decay with time. This is characteristic of chaotic systems, and provides evidence that nonlinear couplings between relatively few variables are the major source of the apparent complexity seen in these cases. This demonstration of different dimensions, degrees of nonlinearity and predictabilities provides rigorous support for the categorization of different synaptically driven discharge forms proposed earlier on the basis of more heuristic criteria. This has significant implications. (1) It demonstrates that heterogeneous postsynaptic forms can indeed be induced by manipulating a few presynaptic variables. (2) Each presynaptic timing induces a form with characteristic dimensionality, thus breaking up the preparation into subsystems such that the physical variables in each operate as one

Data-driven non-Markovian closure models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kondrashov, Dmitri; Chekroun, Mickaël D.; Ghil, Michael

2015-03-01

This paper has two interrelated foci: (i) obtaining stable and efficient data-driven closure models by using a multivariate time series of partial observations from a large-dimensional system; and (ii) comparing these closure models with the optimal closures predicted by the Mori-Zwanzig (MZ) formalism of statistical physics. Multilayer stochastic models (MSMs) are introduced as both a generalization and a time-continuous limit of existing multilevel, regression-based approaches to closure in a data-driven setting; these approaches include empirical model reduction (EMR), as well as more recent multi-layer modeling. It is shown that the multilayer structure of MSMs can provide a natural Markov approximation to the generalized Langevin equation (GLE) of the MZ formalism. A simple correlation-based stopping criterion for an EMR-MSM model is derived to assess how well it approximates the GLE solution. Sufficient conditions are derived on the structure of the nonlinear cross-interactions between the constitutive layers of a given MSM to guarantee the existence of a global random attractor. This existence ensures that no blow-up can occur for a broad class of MSM applications, a class that includes non-polynomial predictors and nonlinearities that do not necessarily preserve quadratic energy invariants. The EMR-MSM methodology is first applied to a conceptual, nonlinear, stochastic climate model of coupled slow and fast variables, in which only slow variables are observed. It is shown that the resulting closure model with energy-conserving nonlinearities efficiently captures the main statistical features of the slow variables, even when there is no formal scale separation and the fast variables are quite energetic. Second, an MSM is shown to successfully reproduce the statistics of a partially observed, generalized Lotka-Volterra model of population dynamics in its chaotic regime. The challenges here include the rarity of strange attractors in the model's parameter space and the existence of multiple attractor basins with fractal boundaries. The positivity constraint on the solutions' components replaces here the quadratic-energy-preserving constraint of fluid-flow problems and it successfully prevents blow-up.

Brain signal variability as a window into the bidirectionality between music and language processing: moving from a linear to a nonlinear model

PubMed Central

Hutka, Stefanie; Bidelman, Gavin M.; Moreno, Sylvain

2013-01-01

There is convincing empirical evidence for bidirectional transfer between music and language, such that experience in either domain can improve mental processes required by the other. This music-language relationship has been studied using linear models (e.g., comparing mean neural activity) that conceptualize brain activity as a static entity. The linear approach limits how we can understand the brain’s processing of music and language because the brain is a nonlinear system. Furthermore, there is evidence that the networks supporting music and language processing interact in a nonlinear manner. We therefore posit that the neural processing and transfer between the domains of language and music are best viewed through the lens of a nonlinear framework. Nonlinear analysis of neurophysiological activity may yield new insight into the commonalities, differences, and bidirectionality between these two cognitive domains not measurable in the local output of a cortical patch. We thus propose a novel application of brain signal variability (BSV) analysis, based on mutual information and signal entropy, to better understand the bidirectionality of music-to-language transfer in the context of a nonlinear framework. This approach will extend current methods by offering a nuanced, network-level understanding of the brain complexity involved in music-language transfer. PMID:24454295

Brain signal variability as a window into the bidirectionality between music and language processing: moving from a linear to a nonlinear model.

PubMed

Hutka, Stefanie; Bidelman, Gavin M; Moreno, Sylvain

2013-12-30

There is convincing empirical evidence for bidirectional transfer between music and language, such that experience in either domain can improve mental processes required by the other. This music-language relationship has been studied using linear models (e.g., comparing mean neural activity) that conceptualize brain activity as a static entity. The linear approach limits how we can understand the brain's processing of music and language because the brain is a nonlinear system. Furthermore, there is evidence that the networks supporting music and language processing interact in a nonlinear manner. We therefore posit that the neural processing and transfer between the domains of language and music are best viewed through the lens of a nonlinear framework. Nonlinear analysis of neurophysiological activity may yield new insight into the commonalities, differences, and bidirectionality between these two cognitive domains not measurable in the local output of a cortical patch. We thus propose a novel application of brain signal variability (BSV) analysis, based on mutual information and signal entropy, to better understand the bidirectionality of music-to-language transfer in the context of a nonlinear framework. This approach will extend current methods by offering a nuanced, network-level understanding of the brain complexity involved in music-language transfer.

Comment on "Scaling regimes and linear/nonlinear responses of last millennium climate to volcanic and solar forcing" by S. Lovejoy and C. Varotsos (2016)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rypdal, Kristoffer; Rypdal, Martin

2016-07-01

Lovejoy and Varotsos (2016) (L&V) analyse the temperature response to solar, volcanic, and solar plus volcanic forcing in the Zebiak-Cane (ZC) model, and to solar and solar plus volcanic forcing in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) E2-R model. By using a simple wavelet filtering technique they conclude that the responses in the ZC model combine subadditively on timescales from 50 to 1000 years. Nonlinear response on shorter timescales is claimed by analysis of intermittencies in the forcing and the temperature signal for both models. The analysis of additivity in the ZC model suffers from a confusing presentation of results based on an invalid approximation, and from ignoring the effect of internal variability. We present tests without this approximation which are not able to detect nonlinearity in the response, even without accounting for internal variability. We also demonstrate that internal variability will appear as subadditivity if it is not accounted for. L&V's analysis of intermittencies is based on a mathematical result stating that the intermittencies of forcing and response are the same if the response is linear. We argue that there are at least three different factors that may invalidate the application of this result for these data. It is valid only for a power-law response function; it assumes power-law scaling of structure functions of forcing as well as temperature signal; and the internal variability, which is strong at least on the short timescales, will exert an influence on temperature intermittence which is independent of the forcing. We demonstrate by a synthetic example that the differences in intermittencies observed by L&V easily can be accounted for by these effects under the assumption of a linear response. Our conclusion is that the analysis performed by L&V does not present valid evidence for a detectable nonlinear response in the global temperature in these climate models.

Estimating PM2.5 Concentrations in Xi'an City Using a Generalized Additive Model with Multi-Source Monitoring Data

PubMed Central

Song, Yong-Ze; Yang, Hong-Lei; Peng, Jun-Huan; Song, Yi-Rong; Sun, Qian; Li, Yuan

2015-01-01

Particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter <2.5 μm (PM2.5) represents a severe environmental problem and is of negative impact on human health. Xi'an City, with a population of 6.5 million, is among the highest concentrations of PM2.5 in China. In 2013, in total, there were 191 days in Xi’an City on which PM2.5 concentrations were greater than 100 μg/m3. Recently, a few studies have explored the potential causes of high PM2.5 concentration using remote sensing data such as the MODIS aerosol optical thickness (AOT) product. Linear regression is a commonly used method to find statistical relationships among PM2.5 concentrations and other pollutants, including CO, NO2, SO2, and O3, which can be indicative of emission sources. The relationships of these variables, however, are usually complicated and non-linear. Therefore, a generalized additive model (GAM) is used to estimate the statistical relationships between potential variables and PM2.5 concentrations. This model contains linear functions of SO2 and CO, univariate smoothing non-linear functions of NO2, O3, AOT and temperature, and bivariate smoothing non-linear functions of location and wind variables. The model can explain 69.50% of PM2.5 concentrations, with R2 = 0.691, which improves the result of a stepwise linear regression (R2 = 0.582) by 18.73%. The two most significant variables, CO concentration and AOT, represent 20.65% and 19.54% of the deviance, respectively, while the three other gas-phase concentrations, SO2, NO2, and O3 account for 10.88% of the total deviance. These results show that in Xi'an City, the traffic and other industrial emissions are the primary source of PM2.5. Temperature, location, and wind variables also non-linearly related with PM2.5. PMID:26540446

Inferring Instantaneous, Multivariate and Nonlinear Sensitivities for the Analysis of Feedback Processes in a Dynamical System: Lorenz Model Case Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Aires, Filipe; Rossow, William B.; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

A new approach is presented for the analysis of feedback processes in a nonlinear dynamical system by observing its variations. The new methodology consists of statistical estimates of the sensitivities between all pairs of variables in the system based on a neural network modeling of the dynamical system. The model can then be used to estimate the instantaneous, multivariate and nonlinear sensitivities, which are shown to be essential for the analysis of the feedbacks processes involved in the dynamical system. The method is described and tested on synthetic data from the low-order Lorenz circulation model where the correct sensitivities can be evaluated analytically.

Exact traveling-wave and spatiotemporal soliton solutions to the generalized (3+1)-dimensional Schrödinger equation with polynomial nonlinearity of arbitrary order.

PubMed

Petrović, Nikola Z; Belić, Milivoj; Zhong, Wei-Ping

2011-02-01

We obtain exact traveling wave and spatiotemporal soliton solutions to the generalized (3+1)-dimensional nonlinear Schrödinger equation with variable coefficients and polynomial Kerr nonlinearity of an arbitrarily high order. Exact solutions, given in terms of Jacobi elliptic functions, are presented for the special cases of cubic-quintic and septic models. We demonstrate that the widely used method for finding exact solutions in terms of Jacobi elliptic functions is not applicable to the nonlinear Schrödinger equation with saturable nonlinearity. ©2011 American Physical Society

Coupled oscillators in identification of nonlinear damping of a real parametric pendulum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olejnik, Paweł; Awrejcewicz, Jan

2018-01-01

A damped parametric pendulum with friction is identified twice by means of its precise and imprecise mathematical model. A laboratory test stand designed for experimental investigations of nonlinear effects determined by a viscous resistance and the stick-slip phenomenon serves as the model mechanical system. An influence of accurateness of mathematical modeling on the time variability of the nonlinear damping coefficient of the oscillator is proved. A free decay response of a precisely and imprecisely modeled physical pendulum is dependent on two different time-varying coefficients of damping. The coefficients of the analyzed parametric oscillator are identified with the use of a new semi-empirical method based on a coupled oscillators approach, utilizing the fractional order derivative of the discrete measurement series treated as an input to the numerical model. Results of application of the proposed method of identification of the nonlinear coefficients of the damped parametric oscillator have been illustrated and extensively discussed.

Identification of aerodynamic models for maneuvering aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chin, Suei; Lan, C. Edward

1990-01-01

Due to the requirement of increased performance and maneuverability, the flight envelope of a modern fighter is frequently extended to the high angle-of-attack regime. Vehicles maneuvering in this regime are subjected to nonlinear aerodynamic loads. The nonlinearities are due mainly to three-dimensional separated flow and concentrated vortex flow that occur at large angles of attack. Accurate prediction of these nonlinear airloads is of great importance in the analysis of a vehicle's flight motion and in the design of its flight control system. A satisfactory evaluation of the performance envelope of the aircraft may require a large number of coupled computations, one for each change in initial conditions. To avoid the disadvantage of solving the coupled flow-field equations and aircraft's motion equations, an alternate approach is to use a mathematical modeling to describe the steady and unsteady aerodynamics for the aircraft equations of motion. Aerodynamic forces and moments acting on a rapidly maneuvering aircraft are, in general, nonlinear functions of motion variables, their time rate of change, and the history of maneuvering. A numerical method was developed to analyze the nonlinear and time-dependent aerodynamic response to establish the generalized indicial function in terms of motion variables and their time rates of change.

Dynamic modeling and adaptive vibration suppression of a high-speed macro-micro manipulator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Yi-ling; Wei, Yan-ding; Lou, Jun-qiang; Fu, Lei; Fang, Sheng; Chen, Te-huan

2018-05-01

This paper presents a dynamic modeling and microscopic vibration suppression for a flexible macro-micro manipulator dedicated to high-speed operation. The manipulator system mainly consists of a macro motion stage and a flexible micromanipulator bonded with one macro-fiber-composite actuator. Based on Hamilton's principle and the Bouc-Wen hysteresis equation, the nonlinear dynamic model is obtained. Then, a hybrid control scheme is proposed to simultaneously suppress the elastic vibration during and after the motor motion. In particular, the hybrid control strategy is composed of a trajectory planning approach and an adaptive variable structure control. Moreover, two optimization indices regarding the comprehensive torques and synthesized vibrations are designed, and the optimal trajectories are acquired using a genetic algorithm. Furthermore, a nonlinear fuzzy regulator is used to adjust the switching gain in the variable structure control. Thus, a fuzzy variable structure control with nonlinear adaptive control law is achieved. A series of experiments are performed to verify the effectiveness and feasibility of the established system model and hybrid control strategy. The excited vibration during the motor motion and the residual vibration after the motor motion are decreased. Meanwhile, the settling time is shortened. Both the manipulation stability and operation efficiency of the manipulator are improved by the proposed hybrid strategy.

A novel model incorporating two variability sources for describing motor evoked potentials

PubMed Central

Goetz, Stefan M.; Luber, Bruce; Lisanby, Sarah H.; Peterchev, Angel V.

2014-01-01

Objective Motor evoked potentials (MEPs) play a pivotal role in transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS), e.g., for determining the motor threshold and probing cortical excitability. Sampled across the range of stimulation strengths, MEPs outline an input–output (IO) curve, which is often used to characterize the corticospinal tract. More detailed understanding of the signal generation and variability of MEPs would provide insight into the underlying physiology and aid correct statistical treatment of MEP data. Methods A novel regression model is tested using measured IO data of twelve subjects. The model splits MEP variability into two independent contributions, acting on both sides of a strong sigmoidal nonlinearity that represents neural recruitment. Traditional sigmoidal regression with a single variability source after the nonlinearity is used for comparison. Results The distribution of MEP amplitudes varied across different stimulation strengths, violating statistical assumptions in traditional regression models. In contrast to the conventional regression model, the dual variability source model better described the IO characteristics including phenomena such as changing distribution spread and skewness along the IO curve. Conclusions MEP variability is best described by two sources that most likely separate variability in the initial excitation process from effects occurring later on. The new model enables more accurate and sensitive estimation of the IO curve characteristics, enhancing its power as a detection tool, and may apply to other brain stimulation modalities. Furthermore, it extracts new information from the IO data concerning the neural variability—information that has previously been treated as noise. PMID:24794287

Ecological prediction with nonlinear multivariate time-frequency functional data models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yang, Wen-Hsi; Wikle, Christopher K.; Holan, Scott H.; Wildhaber, Mark L.

2013-01-01

Time-frequency analysis has become a fundamental component of many scientific inquiries. Due to improvements in technology, the amount of high-frequency signals that are collected for ecological and other scientific processes is increasing at a dramatic rate. In order to facilitate the use of these data in ecological prediction, we introduce a class of nonlinear multivariate time-frequency functional models that can identify important features of each signal as well as the interaction of signals corresponding to the response variable of interest. Our methodology is of independent interest and utilizes stochastic search variable selection to improve model selection and performs model averaging to enhance prediction. We illustrate the effectiveness of our approach through simulation and by application to predicting spawning success of shovelnose sturgeon in the Lower Missouri River.

A Comparison of Methods for Estimating Quadratic Effects in Nonlinear Structural Equation Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Harring, Jeffrey R.; Weiss, Brandi A.; Hsu, Jui-Chen

2012-01-01

Two Monte Carlo simulations were performed to compare methods for estimating and testing hypotheses of quadratic effects in latent variable regression models. The methods considered in the current study were (a) a 2-stage moderated regression approach using latent variable scores, (b) an unconstrained product indicator approach, (c) a latent…

Performance of nonlinear mixed effects models in the presence of informative dropout.

PubMed

Björnsson, Marcus A; Friberg, Lena E; Simonsson, Ulrika S H

2015-01-01

Informative dropout can lead to bias in statistical analyses if not handled appropriately. The objective of this simulation study was to investigate the performance of nonlinear mixed effects models with regard to bias and precision, with and without handling informative dropout. An efficacy variable and dropout depending on that efficacy variable were simulated and model parameters were reestimated, with or without including a dropout model. The Laplace and FOCE-I estimation methods in NONMEM 7, and the stochastic simulations and estimations (SSE) functionality in PsN, were used in the analysis. For the base scenario, bias was low, less than 5% for all fixed effects parameters, when a dropout model was used in the estimations. When a dropout model was not included, bias increased up to 8% for the Laplace method and up to 21% if the FOCE-I estimation method was applied. The bias increased with decreasing number of observations per subject, increasing placebo effect and increasing dropout rate, but was relatively unaffected by the number of subjects in the study. This study illustrates that ignoring informative dropout can lead to biased parameters in nonlinear mixed effects modeling, but even in cases with few observations or high dropout rate, the bias is relatively low and only translates into small effects on predictions of the underlying effect variable. A dropout model is, however, crucial in the presence of informative dropout in order to make realistic simulations of trial outcomes.

Bayesian Estimation of Panel Data Fractional Response Models with Endogeneity: An Application to Standardized Test Rates

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kessler, Lawrence M.

2013-01-01

In this paper I propose Bayesian estimation of a nonlinear panel data model with a fractional dependent variable (bounded between 0 and 1). Specifically, I estimate a panel data fractional probit model which takes into account the bounded nature of the fractional response variable. I outline estimation under the assumption of strict exogeneity as…

The Mathematics of Psychotherapy: A Nonlinear Model of Change Dynamics.

PubMed

Schiepek, Gunter; Aas, Benjamin; Viol, Kathrin

2016-07-01

Psychotherapy is a dynamic process produced by a complex system of interacting variables. Even though there are qualitative models of such systems the link between structure and function, between network and network dynamics is still missing. The aim of this study is to realize these links. The proposed model is composed of five state variables (P: problem severity, S: success and therapeutic progress, M: motivation to change, E: emotions, I: insight and new perspectives) interconnected by 16 functions. The shape of each function is modified by four parameters (a: capability to form a trustful working alliance, c: mentalization and emotion regulation, r: behavioral resources and skills, m: self-efficacy and reward expectation). Psychologically, the parameters play the role of competencies or traits, which translate into the concept of control parameters in synergetics. The qualitative model was transferred into five coupled, deterministic, nonlinear difference equations generating the dynamics of each variable as a function of other variables. The mathematical model is able to reproduce important features of psychotherapy processes. Examples of parameter-dependent bifurcation diagrams are given. Beyond the illustrated similarities between simulated and empirical dynamics, the model has to be further developed, systematically tested by simulated experiments, and compared to empirical data.

Nonlinear dynamical modes of climate variability: from curves to manifolds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gavrilov, Andrey; Mukhin, Dmitry; Loskutov, Evgeny; Feigin, Alexander

2016-04-01

The necessity of efficient dimensionality reduction methods capturing dynamical properties of the system from observed data is evident. Recent study shows that nonlinear dynamical mode (NDM) expansion is able to solve this problem and provide adequate phase variables in climate data analysis [1]. A single NDM is logical extension of linear spatio-temporal structure (like empirical orthogonal function pattern): it is constructed as nonlinear transformation of hidden scalar time series to the space of observed variables, i. e. projection of observed dataset onto a nonlinear curve. Both the hidden time series and the parameters of the curve are learned simultaneously using Bayesian approach. The only prior information about the hidden signal is the assumption of its smoothness. The optimal nonlinearity degree and smoothness are found using Bayesian evidence technique. In this work we do further extension and look for vector hidden signals instead of scalar with the same smoothness restriction. As a result we resolve multidimensional manifolds instead of sum of curves. The dimension of the hidden manifold is optimized using also Bayesian evidence. The efficiency of the extension is demonstrated on model examples. Results of application to climate data are demonstrated and discussed. The study is supported by Government of Russian Federation (agreement #14.Z50.31.0033 with the Institute of Applied Physics of RAS). 1. Mukhin, D., Gavrilov, A., Feigin, A., Loskutov, E., & Kurths, J. (2015). Principal nonlinear dynamical modes of climate variability. Scientific Reports, 5, 15510. http://doi.org/10.1038/srep15510

Sparse 4D TomoSAR imaging in the presence of non-linear deformation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khwaja, Ahmed Shaharyar; ćetin, Müjdat

2018-04-01

In this paper, we present a sparse four-dimensional tomographic synthetic aperture radar (4D TomoSAR) imaging scheme that can estimate elevation and linear as well as non-linear seasonal deformation rates of scatterers using the interferometric phase. Unlike existing sparse processing techniques that use fixed dictionaries based on a linear deformation model, we use a variable dictionary for the non-linear deformation in the form of seasonal sinusoidal deformation, in addition to the fixed dictionary for the linear deformation. We estimate the amplitude of the sinusoidal deformation using an optimization method and create the variable dictionary using the estimated amplitude. We show preliminary results using simulated data that demonstrate the soundness of our proposed technique for sparse 4D TomoSAR imaging in the presence of non-linear deformation.

An analytical approach to top predator interference on the dynamics of a food chain model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Senthamarai, R.; Vijayalakshmi, T.

2018-04-01

In this paper, a nonlinear mathematical model is proposed and analyzed to study of top predator interference on the dynamics of a food chain model. The mathematical model is formulated using the system of non-linear ordinary differential equations. In this model, there are three state dimensionless variables, viz, size of prey population x, size of intermediate predator y and size of top predator population z. The analytical results are compared with the numerical simulation using MATLAB software and satisfactory results are noticed.

Operations research investigations of satellite power stations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cole, J. W.; Ballard, J. L.

1976-01-01

A systems model reflecting the design concepts of Satellite Power Stations (SPS) was developed. The model is of sufficient scope to include the interrelationships of the following major design parameters: the transportation to and between orbits; assembly of the SPS; and maintenance of the SPS. The systems model is composed of a set of equations that are nonlinear with respect to the system parameters and decision variables. The model determines a figure of merit from which alternative concepts concerning transportation, assembly, and maintenance of satellite power stations are studied. A hybrid optimization model was developed to optimize the system's decision variables. The optimization model consists of a random search procedure and the optimal-steepest descent method. A FORTRAN computer program was developed to enable the user to optimize nonlinear functions using the model. Specifically, the computer program was used to optimize Satellite Power Station system components.

Intraseasonal-to-semiannual variability of sea-surface height in the eastern, equatorial Indian Ocean and southern Bay of Bengal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, X.; McCreary, J. P., Jr.; Qiu, B.; Yu, Z.; DU, Y.

2016-12-01

Intraseasonal-to-semiannual variability of sea-surface height (SSH) in the eastern, equatorial Indian Ocean (EEIO) and southern Bay of Bengal (BoB) is investigated using altimetric data, and solutions to 1½-layer (first-baroclinic-mode) and linear, continuously stratified (LCS; multi-baroclinic-mode) models. The amplitude and dominant period of SSH variability differ regionally. Large-amplitude variability is found along the west coast of Sumatra, in a zonal band across the BoB centered along 5°N, east of Sri Lanka, and in the northwestern BoB. Along the Sumatran west coast, SSH variability peaks at 30-60 days, 90 days, and 180 days. Along 5°N and east of Sri Lanka, 30-60-day variability is dominant. Sensitivity experiments using a nonlinear version of the 1½-layer model forced by realistic winds reproduce the observed patterns of intraseasonal variability in the southern BoB. At 30-60 days, the solutions show that eddies (nonlinear Rossby waves) propagating from the east, rather than local wind forcing, account for most of the variance east of Sri Lanka; furthermore, they demonstrate that the variance is significantly enhance by the nonlinear transfer of 90-120-day energy into the intraseasonal band. The LCS solutions show that the first two baroclinic modes explain most of the SSH variance at 90-180 days. The second-baroclinic-mode dominates the SSH variance at 180 days, a consequence of basin resonance and strong wind forcing.

A Multiscale Nested Modeling Framework to Simulate the Interaction of Surface Gravity Waves with Nonlinear Internal Gravity Waves

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-30

We aim at understanding the impact of tidal , seasonal, and mesoscale variability of the internal wave field and how it influences the surface waves ...Interaction of Surface Gravity Waves with Nonlinear Internal Gravity Waves Lian Shen St. Anthony Falls Laboratory and Department of Mechanical...on studying surface gravity wave evolution and spectrum in the presence of surface currents caused by strongly nonlinear internal solitary waves

Reconstruction of Complex Directional Networks with Group Lasso Nonlinear Conditional Granger Causality.

PubMed

Yang, Guanxue; Wang, Lin; Wang, Xiaofan

2017-06-07

Reconstruction of networks underlying complex systems is one of the most crucial problems in many areas of engineering and science. In this paper, rather than identifying parameters of complex systems governed by pre-defined models or taking some polynomial and rational functions as a prior information for subsequent model selection, we put forward a general framework for nonlinear causal network reconstruction from time-series with limited observations. With obtaining multi-source datasets based on the data-fusion strategy, we propose a novel method to handle nonlinearity and directionality of complex networked systems, namely group lasso nonlinear conditional granger causality. Specially, our method can exploit different sets of radial basis functions to approximate the nonlinear interactions between each pair of nodes and integrate sparsity into grouped variables selection. The performance characteristic of our approach is firstly assessed with two types of simulated datasets from nonlinear vector autoregressive model and nonlinear dynamic models, and then verified based on the benchmark datasets from DREAM3 Challenge4. Effects of data size and noise intensity are also discussed. All of the results demonstrate that the proposed method performs better in terms of higher area under precision-recall curve.

Neural control of fast nonlinear systems--application to a turbocharged SI engine with VCT.

PubMed

Colin, Guillaume; Chamaillard, Yann; Bloch, Gérard; Corde, Gilles

2007-07-01

Today, (engine) downsizing using turbocharging appears as a major way in reducing fuel consumption and pollutant emissions of spark ignition (SI) engines. In this context, an efficient control of the air actuators [throttle, turbo wastegate, and variable camshaft timing (VCT)] is needed for engine torque control. This paper proposes a nonlinear model-based control scheme which combines separate, but coordinated, control modules. Theses modules are based on different control strategies: internal model control (IMC), model predictive control (MPC), and optimal control. It is shown how neural models can be used at different levels and included in the control modules to replace physical models, which are too complex to be online embedded, or to estimate nonmeasured variables. The results obtained from two different test benches show the real-time applicability and good control performance of the proposed methods.

R programming for parameters estimation of geographically weighted ordinal logistic regression (GWOLR) model based on Newton Raphson

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zuhdi, Shaifudin; Saputro, Dewi Retno Sari

2017-03-01

GWOLR model used for represent relationship between dependent variable has categories and scale of category is ordinal with independent variable influenced the geographical location of the observation site. Parameters estimation of GWOLR model use maximum likelihood provide system of nonlinear equations and hard to be found the result in analytic resolution. By finishing it, it means determine the maximum completion, this thing associated with optimizing problem. The completion nonlinear system of equations optimize use numerical approximation, which one is Newton Raphson method. The purpose of this research is to make iteration algorithm Newton Raphson and program using R software to estimate GWOLR model. Based on the research obtained that program in R can be used to estimate the parameters of GWOLR model by forming a syntax program with command "while".

Stochastic foundations of undulatory transport phenomena: generalized Poisson-Kac processes—part III extensions and applications to kinetic theory and transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giona, Massimiliano; Brasiello, Antonio; Crescitelli, Silvestro

2017-08-01

This third part extends the theory of Generalized Poisson-Kac (GPK) processes to nonlinear stochastic models and to a continuum of states. Nonlinearity is treated in two ways: (i) as a dependence of the parameters (intensity of the stochastic velocity, transition rates) of the stochastic perturbation on the state variable, similarly to the case of nonlinear Langevin equations, and (ii) as the dependence of the stochastic microdynamic equations of motion on the statistical description of the process itself (nonlinear Fokker-Planck-Kac models). Several numerical and physical examples illustrate the theory. Gathering nonlinearity and a continuum of states, GPK theory provides a stochastic derivation of the nonlinear Boltzmann equation, furnishing a positive answer to the Kac’s program in kinetic theory. The transition from stochastic microdynamics to transport theory within the framework of the GPK paradigm is also addressed.

General job stress: a unidimensional measure and its non-linear relations with outcome variables.

PubMed

Yankelevich, Maya; Broadfoot, Alison; Gillespie, Jennifer Z; Gillespie, Michael A; Guidroz, Ashley

2012-04-01

This article aims to examine the non-linear relations between a general measure of job stress [Stress in General (SIG)] and two outcome variables: intentions to quit and job satisfaction. In so doing, we also re-examine the factor structure of the SIG and determine that, as a two-factor scale, it obscures non-linear relations with outcomes. Thus, in this research, we not only test for non-linear relations between stress and outcome variables but also present an updated version of the SIG scale. Using two distinct samples of working adults (sample 1, N = 589; sample 2, N = 4322), results indicate that a more parsimonious eight-item SIG has better model-data fit than the 15-item two-factor SIG and that the eight-item SIG has non-linear relations with job satisfaction and intentions to quit. Specifically, the revised SIG has an inverted curvilinear J-shaped relation with job satisfaction such that job satisfaction drops precipitously after a certain level of stress; the SIG has a J-shaped curvilinear relation with intentions to quit such that turnover intentions increase exponentially after a certain level of stress. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Forecasting Glacier Evolution and Hindcasting Paleoclimates In Light of Mass Balance Nonlinearities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malone, A.; Doughty, A. M.; MacAyeal, D. R.

2016-12-01

Glaciers are commonly used barometers of present and past climate change, with their variations often being linked to shifts in the mean climate. Climate variability within a unchanging mean state, however, can produce short term mass balance and glacier length anomalies, complicating this linkage. Also, the mass balance response to this variability can be nonlinear, possibly impacting the longer term state of the glacier. We propose a conceptual model to understand these nonlinearities and quantify their impacts on the longer term mass balance and glacier length. The relationship between mass balance and elevation, i.e. the vertical balance profile (VBP), illuminates these nonlinearities (Figure A). The VBP, given here for a wet tropical glacier, is piecewise, which can lead to different mass balance responses to climate anomalies of similar magnitude but opposite sign. We simulate the mass balance response to climate variability by vertically (temperature anomalies) and horizontally (precipitation anomalies) transposing the VBP for the mean climate (Figure A). The resulting anomalous VBP is the superposition of the two translations. We drive a 1-D flowline model with 10,000 years of anomalous VBPs. The aggregate VBP for the mean climate including variability differs from the VBP for the mean climate excluding variability, having a higher equilibrium line altitude (ELA) and a negative mass balance (Figure B). Accordingly, the glacier retreats, and the equilibrium glacier length for the aggregate VBP is the same as the mean length from the 10,000 year flowline simulation (Figure C). The magnitude of the VBP shift and glacier retreat increases with greater temperature variability and larger discontinuities in the VBP slope. These results highlight the importance of both the climate mean and variability in determining the longer term state of the glacier. Thus, forecasting glacier evolution or hindcasting past climates should also include representation of climate variability.

A Time Integration Algorithm Based on the State Transition Matrix for Structures with Time Varying and Nonlinear Properties

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bartels, Robert E.

2003-01-01

A variable order method of integrating the structural dynamics equations that is based on the state transition matrix has been developed. The method has been evaluated for linear time variant and nonlinear systems of equations. When the time variation of the system can be modeled exactly by a polynomial it produces nearly exact solutions for a wide range of time step sizes. Solutions of a model nonlinear dynamic response exhibiting chaotic behavior have been computed. Accuracy of the method has been demonstrated by comparison with solutions obtained by established methods.

Empirical Investigation of Critical Transitions in Paleoclimate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loskutov, E. M.; Mukhin, D.; Gavrilov, A.; Feigin, A.

2016-12-01

In this work we apply a new empirical method for the analysis of complex spatially distributed systems to the analysis of paleoclimate data. The method consists of two general parts: (i) revealing the optimal phase-space variables and (ii) construction the empirical prognostic model by observed time series. The method of phase space variables construction based on the data decomposition into nonlinear dynamical modes which was successfully applied to global SST field and allowed clearly separate time scales and reveal climate shift in the observed data interval [1]. The second part, the Bayesian approach to optimal evolution operator reconstruction by time series is based on representation of evolution operator in the form of nonlinear stochastic function represented by artificial neural networks [2,3]. In this work we are focused on the investigation of critical transitions - the abrupt changes in climate dynamics - in match longer time scale process. It is well known that there were number of critical transitions on different time scales in the past. In this work, we demonstrate the first results of applying our empirical methods to analysis of paleoclimate variability. In particular, we discuss the possibility of detecting, identifying and prediction such critical transitions by means of nonlinear empirical modeling using the paleoclimate record time series. The study is supported by Government of Russian Federation (agreement #14.Z50.31.0033 with the Institute of Applied Physics of RAS). 1. Mukhin, D., Gavrilov, A., Feigin, A., Loskutov, E., & Kurths, J. (2015). Principal nonlinear dynamical modes of climate variability. Scientific Reports, 5, 15510. http://doi.org/10.1038/srep155102. Ya. I. Molkov, D. N. Mukhin, E. M. Loskutov, A.M. Feigin, (2012) : Random dynamical models from time series. Phys. Rev. E, Vol. 85, n.3.3. Mukhin, D., Kondrashov, D., Loskutov, E., Gavrilov, A., Feigin, A., & Ghil, M. (2015). Predicting Critical Transitions in ENSO models. Part II: Spatially Dependent Models. Journal of Climate, 28(5), 1962-1976. http://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00240.1

Robust variable selection method for nonparametric differential equation models with application to nonlinear dynamic gene regulatory network analysis.

PubMed

Lu, Tao

2016-01-01

The gene regulation network (GRN) evaluates the interactions between genes and look for models to describe the gene expression behavior. These models have many applications; for instance, by characterizing the gene expression mechanisms that cause certain disorders, it would be possible to target those genes to block the progress of the disease. Many biological processes are driven by nonlinear dynamic GRN. In this article, we propose a nonparametric differential equation (ODE) to model the nonlinear dynamic GRN. Specially, we address following questions simultaneously: (i) extract information from noisy time course gene expression data; (ii) model the nonlinear ODE through a nonparametric smoothing function; (iii) identify the important regulatory gene(s) through a group smoothly clipped absolute deviation (SCAD) approach; (iv) test the robustness of the model against possible shortening of experimental duration. We illustrate the usefulness of the model and associated statistical methods through a simulation and a real application examples.

Nonlinear probabilistic finite element models of laminated composite shells

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Engelstad, S. P.; Reddy, J. N.

1993-01-01

A probabilistic finite element analysis procedure for laminated composite shells has been developed. A total Lagrangian finite element formulation, employing a degenerated 3-D laminated composite shell with the full Green-Lagrange strains and first-order shear deformable kinematics, forms the modeling foundation. The first-order second-moment technique for probabilistic finite element analysis of random fields is employed and results are presented in the form of mean and variance of the structural response. The effects of material nonlinearity are included through the use of a rate-independent anisotropic plasticity formulation with the macroscopic point of view. Both ply-level and micromechanics-level random variables can be selected, the latter by means of the Aboudi micromechanics model. A number of sample problems are solved to verify the accuracy of the procedures developed and to quantify the variability of certain material type/structure combinations. Experimental data is compared in many cases, and the Monte Carlo simulation method is used to check the probabilistic results. In general, the procedure is quite effective in modeling the mean and variance response of the linear and nonlinear behavior of laminated composite shells.

Use of nonlinear programming to optimize performance response to energy density in broiler feed formulation.

PubMed

Guevara, V R

2004-02-01

A nonlinear programming optimization model was developed to maximize margin over feed cost in broiler feed formulation and is described in this paper. The model identifies the optimal feed mix that maximizes profit margin. Optimum metabolizable energy level and performance were found by using Excel Solver nonlinear programming. Data from an energy density study with broilers were fitted to quadratic equations to express weight gain, feed consumption, and the objective function income over feed cost in terms of energy density. Nutrient:energy ratio constraints were transformed into equivalent linear constraints. National Research Council nutrient requirements and feeding program were used for examining changes in variables. The nonlinear programming feed formulation method was used to illustrate the effects of changes in different variables on the optimum energy density, performance, and profitability and was compared with conventional linear programming. To demonstrate the capabilities of the model, I determined the impact of variation in prices. Prices for broiler, corn, fish meal, and soybean meal were increased and decreased by 25%. Formulations were identical in all other respects. Energy density, margin, and diet cost changed compared with conventional linear programming formulation. This study suggests that nonlinear programming can be more useful than conventional linear programming to optimize performance response to energy density in broiler feed formulation because an energy level does not need to be set.

A kinematically driven anisotropic viscoelastic constitutive model applied to tires

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Arthur R.; Tanner, John A.; Mason, Angela J.

1995-01-01

Aircraft tires are composite structures manufactured with viscoelastic materials such as carbon black filled rubber and nylon cords. When loaded they experience large deflections and moderately large strains. Detailed structural models of tires require the use of either nonlinear shell or nonlinear three dimensional solid finite elements. Computational predictions of the dynamic response of tires must consider the composite viscoelastic material behavior in a realistic fashion. We describe a modification to a nonlinear anisotropic shell finite element so it can be used to model viscoelastic stresses during general deformations. The model is developed by introducing internal variables of the type used to model elastic strain energy. The internal variables are strains, curvatures, and transverse shear angles which are in a one-to-one correspondence with the generalized coordinates used to model the elastic strain energy for nonlinear response. A difference-relaxation equation is used to relate changes in the observable strain field to changes in the internal strain field. The internal stress state is introduced into the equilibrium equations by converting it to nodal loads associated with the element's displacement degrees of freedom. In this form the tangent matrix in the Newton-Raphson solution algorithm is not modified from its form for the nonlinear statics problem. Only the gradient vector is modified and the modification is not computationally costly. The existing finite element model for the Space Shuttle nose gear tire is used to provide examples of the algorithm. In the first example, the tire's rim is displaced at a constant rate up to a fixed value. In the second example, the tire's rim is enforced to follow a saw tooth load and unload curve to generate hysteresis loops.

A kinematically driven anisotropic viscoelastic constitutive model applied to tires

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, Arthur R.; Tanner, John A.; Mason, Angela J.

1995-08-01

Aircraft tires are composite structures manufactured with viscoelastic materials such as carbon black filled rubber and nylon cords. When loaded they experience large deflections and moderately large strains. Detailed structural models of tires require the use of either nonlinear shell or nonlinear three dimensional solid finite elements. Computational predictions of the dynamic response of tires must consider the composite viscoelastic material behavior in a realistic fashion. We describe a modification to a nonlinear anisotropic shell finite element so it can be used to model viscoelastic stresses during general deformations. The model is developed by introducing internal variables of the type used to model elastic strain energy. The internal variables are strains, curvatures, and transverse shear angles which are in a one-to-one correspondence with the generalized coordinates used to model the elastic strain energy for nonlinear response. A difference-relaxation equation is used to relate changes in the observable strain field to changes in the internal strain field. The internal stress state is introduced into the equilibrium equations by converting it to nodal loads associated with the element's displacement degrees of freedom. In this form the tangent matrix in the Newton-Raphson solution algorithm is not modified from its form for the nonlinear statics problem. Only the gradient vector is modified and the modification is not computationally costly. The existing finite element model for the Space Shuttle nose gear tire is used to provide examples of the algorithm. In the first example, the tire's rim is displaced at a constant rate up to a fixed value. In the second example, the tire's rim is enforced to follow a saw tooth load and unload curve to generate hysteresis loops.

GWM-a ground-water management process for the U.S. Geological Survey modular ground-water model (MODFLOW-2000)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ahlfeld, David P.; Barlow, Paul M.; Mulligan, Anne E.

2005-01-01

GWM is a Ground?Water Management Process for the U.S. Geological Survey modular three?dimensional ground?water model, MODFLOW?2000. GWM uses a response?matrix approach to solve several types of linear, nonlinear, and mixed?binary linear ground?water management formulations. Each management formulation consists of a set of decision variables, an objective function, and a set of constraints. Three types of decision variables are supported by GWM: flow?rate decision variables, which are withdrawal or injection rates at well sites; external decision variables, which are sources or sinks of water that are external to the flow model and do not directly affect the state variables of the simulated ground?water system (heads, streamflows, and so forth); and binary variables, which have values of 0 or 1 and are used to define the status of flow?rate or external decision variables. Flow?rate decision variables can represent wells that extend over one or more model cells and be active during one or more model stress periods; external variables also can be active during one or more stress periods. A single objective function is supported by GWM, which can be specified to either minimize or maximize the weighted sum of the three types of decision variables. Four types of constraints can be specified in a GWM formulation: upper and lower bounds on the flow?rate and external decision variables; linear summations of the three types of decision variables; hydraulic?head based constraints, including drawdowns, head differences, and head gradients; and streamflow and streamflow?depletion constraints. The Response Matrix Solution (RMS) Package of GWM uses the Ground?Water Flow Process of MODFLOW to calculate the change in head at each constraint location that results from a perturbation of a flow?rate variable; these changes are used to calculate the response coefficients. For linear management formulations, the resulting matrix of response coefficients is then combined with other components of the linear management formulation to form a complete linear formulation; the formulation is then solved by use of the simplex algorithm, which is incorporated into the RMS Package. Nonlinear formulations arise for simulated conditions that include water?table (unconfined) aquifers or head?dependent boundary conditions (such as streams, drains, or evapotranspiration from the water table). Nonlinear formulations are solved by sequential linear programming; that is, repeated linearization of the nonlinear features of the management problem. In this approach, response coefficients are recalculated for each iteration of the solution process. Mixed?binary linear (or mildly nonlinear) formulations are solved by use of the branch and bound algorithm, which is also incorporated into the RMS Package. Three sample problems are provided to demonstrate the use of GWM for typical ground?water flow management problems. These sample problems provide examples of how GWM input files are constructed to specify the decision variables, objective function, constraints, and solution process for a GWM run. The GWM Process runs with the MODFLOW?2000 Global and Ground?Water Flow Processes, but in its current form GWM cannot be used with the Observation, Sensitivity, Parameter?Estimation, or Ground?Water Transport Processes. The GWM Process is written with a modular structure so that new objective functions, constraint types, and solution algorithms can be added.

Real-Time Fault Detection Approach for Nonlinear Systems and its Asynchronous T-S Fuzzy Observer-Based Implementation.

PubMed

Li, Linlin; Ding, Steven X; Qiu, Jianbin; Yang, Ying

2017-02-01

This paper is concerned with a real-time observer-based fault detection (FD) approach for a general type of nonlinear systems in the presence of external disturbances. To this end, in the first part of this paper, we deal with the definition and the design condition for an L ∞ / L 2 type of nonlinear observer-based FD systems. This analytical framework is fundamental for the development of real-time nonlinear FD systems with the aid of some well-established techniques. In the second part, we address the integrated design of the L ∞ / L 2 observer-based FD systems by applying Takagi-Sugeno (T-S) fuzzy dynamic modeling technique as the solution tool. This fuzzy observer-based FD approach is developed via piecewise Lyapunov functions, and can be applied to the case that the premise variables of the FD system is nonsynchronous with the premise variables of the fuzzy model of the plant. In the end, a case study on the laboratory setup of three-tank system is given to show the efficiency of the proposed results.

Nonparametric model validations for hidden Markov models with applications in financial econometrics.

PubMed

Zhao, Zhibiao

2011-06-01

We address the nonparametric model validation problem for hidden Markov models with partially observable variables and hidden states. We achieve this goal by constructing a nonparametric simultaneous confidence envelope for transition density function of the observable variables and checking whether the parametric density estimate is contained within such an envelope. Our specification test procedure is motivated by a functional connection between the transition density of the observable variables and the Markov transition kernel of the hidden states. Our approach is applicable for continuous time diffusion models, stochastic volatility models, nonlinear time series models, and models with market microstructure noise.

Validation of the alternating conditional estimation algorithm for estimation of flexible extensions of Cox's proportional hazards model with nonlinear constraints on the parameters.

PubMed

Wynant, Willy; Abrahamowicz, Michal

2016-11-01

Standard optimization algorithms for maximizing likelihood may not be applicable to the estimation of those flexible multivariable models that are nonlinear in their parameters. For applications where the model's structure permits separating estimation of mutually exclusive subsets of parameters into distinct steps, we propose the alternating conditional estimation (ACE) algorithm. We validate the algorithm, in simulations, for estimation of two flexible extensions of Cox's proportional hazards model where the standard maximum partial likelihood estimation does not apply, with simultaneous modeling of (1) nonlinear and time-dependent effects of continuous covariates on the hazard, and (2) nonlinear interaction and main effects of the same variable. We also apply the algorithm in real-life analyses to estimate nonlinear and time-dependent effects of prognostic factors for mortality in colon cancer. Analyses of both simulated and real-life data illustrate good statistical properties of the ACE algorithm and its ability to yield new potentially useful insights about the data structure. © 2016 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Decreasing the temporal complexity for nonlinear, implicit reduced-order models by forecasting

DOE PAGES

Carlberg, Kevin; Ray, Jaideep; van Bloemen Waanders, Bart

2015-02-14

Implicit numerical integration of nonlinear ODEs requires solving a system of nonlinear algebraic equations at each time step. Each of these systems is often solved by a Newton-like method, which incurs a sequence of linear-system solves. Most model-reduction techniques for nonlinear ODEs exploit knowledge of system's spatial behavior to reduce the computational complexity of each linear-system solve. However, the number of linear-system solves for the reduced-order simulation often remains roughly the same as that for the full-order simulation. We propose exploiting knowledge of the model's temporal behavior to (1) forecast the unknown variable of the reduced-order system of nonlinear equationsmore » at future time steps, and (2) use this forecast as an initial guess for the Newton-like solver during the reduced-order-model simulation. To compute the forecast, we propose using the Gappy POD technique. As a result, the goal is to generate an accurate initial guess so that the Newton solver requires many fewer iterations to converge, thereby decreasing the number of linear-system solves in the reduced-order-model simulation.« less

A nonlinear quality-related fault detection approach based on modified kernel partial least squares.

PubMed

Jiao, Jianfang; Zhao, Ning; Wang, Guang; Yin, Shen

2017-01-01

In this paper, a new nonlinear quality-related fault detection method is proposed based on kernel partial least squares (KPLS) model. To deal with the nonlinear characteristics among process variables, the proposed method maps these original variables into feature space in which the linear relationship between kernel matrix and output matrix is realized by means of KPLS. Then the kernel matrix is decomposed into two orthogonal parts by singular value decomposition (SVD) and the statistics for each part are determined appropriately for the purpose of quality-related fault detection. Compared with relevant existing nonlinear approaches, the proposed method has the advantages of simple diagnosis logic and stable performance. A widely used literature example and an industrial process are used for the performance evaluation for the proposed method. Copyright © 2016 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An optimization model for the US Air-Traffic System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mulvey, J. M.

1986-01-01

A systematic approach for monitoring U.S. air traffic was developed in the context of system-wide planning and control. Towards this end, a network optimization model with nonlinear objectives was chosen as the central element in the planning/control system. The network representation was selected because: (1) it provides a comprehensive structure for depicting essential aspects of the air traffic system, (2) it can be solved efficiently for large scale problems, and (3) the design can be easily communicated to non-technical users through computer graphics. Briefly, the network planning models consider the flow of traffic through a graph as the basic structure. Nodes depict locations and time periods for either individual planes or for aggregated groups of airplanes. Arcs define variables as actual airplanes flying through space or as delays across time periods. As such, a special case of the network can be used to model the so called flow control problem. Due to the large number of interacting variables and the difficulty in subdividing the problem into relatively independent subproblems, an integrated model was designed which will depict the entire high level (above 29000 feet) jet route system for the 48 contiguous states in the U.S. As a first step in demonstrating the concept's feasibility a nonlinear risk/cost model was developed for the Indianapolis Airspace. The nonlinear network program --NLPNETG-- was employed in solving the resulting test cases. This optimization program uses the Truncated-Newton method (quadratic approximation) for determining the search direction at each iteration in the nonlinear algorithm. It was shown that aircraft could be re-routed in an optimal fashion whenever traffic congestion increased beyond an acceptable level, as measured by the nonlinear risk function.

Neuromechanical tuning of nonlinear postural control dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ting, Lena H.; van Antwerp, Keith W.; Scrivens, Jevin E.; McKay, J. Lucas; Welch, Torrence D. J.; Bingham, Jeffrey T.; DeWeerth, Stephen P.

2009-06-01

Postural control may be an ideal physiological motor task for elucidating general questions about the organization, diversity, flexibility, and variability of biological motor behaviors using nonlinear dynamical analysis techniques. Rather than presenting "problems" to the nervous system, the redundancy of biological systems and variability in their behaviors may actually be exploited to allow for the flexible achievement of multiple and concurrent task-level goals associated with movement. Such variability may reflect the constant "tuning" of neuromechanical elements and their interactions for movement control. The problem faced by researchers is that there is no one-to-one mapping between the task goal and the coordination of the underlying elements. We review recent and ongoing research in postural control with the goal of identifying common mechanisms underlying variability in postural control, coordination of multiple postural strategies, and transitions between them. We present a delayed-feedback model used to characterize the variability observed in muscle coordination patterns during postural responses to perturbation. We emphasize the significance of delays in physiological postural systems, requiring the modulation and coordination of both the instantaneous, "passive" response to perturbations as well as the delayed, "active" responses to perturbations. The challenge for future research lies in understanding the mechanisms and principles underlying neuromechanical tuning of and transitions between the diversity of postural behaviors. Here we describe some of our recent and ongoing studies aimed at understanding variability in postural control using physical robotic systems, human experiments, dimensional analysis, and computational models that could be enhanced from a nonlinear dynamics approach.

Linear versus non-linear measures of temporal variability in finger tapping and their relation to performance on open- versus closed-loop motor tasks: comparing standard deviations to Lyapunov exponents.

PubMed

Christman, Stephen D; Weaver, Ryan

2008-05-01

The nature of temporal variability during speeded finger tapping was examined using linear (standard deviation) and non-linear (Lyapunov exponent) measures. Experiment 1 found that right hand tapping was characterised by lower amounts of both linear and non-linear measures of variability than left hand tapping, and that linear and non-linear measures of variability were often negatively correlated with one another. Experiment 2 found that increased non-linear variability was associated with relatively enhanced performance on a closed-loop motor task (mirror tracing) and relatively impaired performance on an open-loop motor task (pointing in a dark room), especially for left hand performance. The potential uses and significance of measures of non-linear variability are discussed.

Families of stable solitons and excitations in the PT-symmetric nonlinear Schrödinger equations with position-dependent effective masses.

PubMed

Chen, Yong; Yan, Zhenya; Mihalache, Dumitru; Malomed, Boris A

2017-04-28

Since the parity-time-([Formula: see text]-) symmetric quantum mechanics was put forward, fundamental properties of some linear and nonlinear models with [Formula: see text]-symmetric potentials have been investigated. However, previous studies of [Formula: see text]-symmetric waves were limited to constant diffraction coefficients in the ambient medium. Here we address effects of variable diffraction coefficient on the beam dynamics in nonlinear media with generalized [Formula: see text]-symmetric Scarf-II potentials. The broken linear [Formula: see text] symmetry phase may enjoy a restoration with the growing diffraction parameter. Continuous families of one- and two-dimensional solitons are found to be stable. Particularly, some stable solitons are analytically found. The existence range and propagation dynamics of the solitons are identified. Transformation of the solitons by means of adiabatically varying parameters, and collisions between solitons are studied too. We also explore the evolution of constant-intensity waves in a model combining the variable diffraction coefficient and complex potentials with globally balanced gain and loss, which are more general than [Formula: see text]-symmetric ones, but feature similar properties. Our results may suggest new experiments for [Formula: see text]-symmetric nonlinear waves in nonlinear nonuniform optical media.

Comparison of Random Forest and Parametric Imputation Models for Imputing Missing Data Using MICE: A CALIBER Study

PubMed Central

Shah, Anoop D.; Bartlett, Jonathan W.; Carpenter, James; Nicholas, Owen; Hemingway, Harry

2014-01-01

Multivariate imputation by chained equations (MICE) is commonly used for imputing missing data in epidemiologic research. The “true” imputation model may contain nonlinearities which are not included in default imputation models. Random forest imputation is a machine learning technique which can accommodate nonlinearities and interactions and does not require a particular regression model to be specified. We compared parametric MICE with a random forest-based MICE algorithm in 2 simulation studies. The first study used 1,000 random samples of 2,000 persons drawn from the 10,128 stable angina patients in the CALIBER database (Cardiovascular Disease Research using Linked Bespoke Studies and Electronic Records; 2001–2010) with complete data on all covariates. Variables were artificially made “missing at random,” and the bias and efficiency of parameter estimates obtained using different imputation methods were compared. Both MICE methods produced unbiased estimates of (log) hazard ratios, but random forest was more efficient and produced narrower confidence intervals. The second study used simulated data in which the partially observed variable depended on the fully observed variables in a nonlinear way. Parameter estimates were less biased using random forest MICE, and confidence interval coverage was better. This suggests that random forest imputation may be useful for imputing complex epidemiologic data sets in which some patients have missing data. PMID:24589914

Comparison of random forest and parametric imputation models for imputing missing data using MICE: a CALIBER study.

PubMed

Shah, Anoop D; Bartlett, Jonathan W; Carpenter, James; Nicholas, Owen; Hemingway, Harry

2014-03-15

Multivariate imputation by chained equations (MICE) is commonly used for imputing missing data in epidemiologic research. The "true" imputation model may contain nonlinearities which are not included in default imputation models. Random forest imputation is a machine learning technique which can accommodate nonlinearities and interactions and does not require a particular regression model to be specified. We compared parametric MICE with a random forest-based MICE algorithm in 2 simulation studies. The first study used 1,000 random samples of 2,000 persons drawn from the 10,128 stable angina patients in the CALIBER database (Cardiovascular Disease Research using Linked Bespoke Studies and Electronic Records; 2001-2010) with complete data on all covariates. Variables were artificially made "missing at random," and the bias and efficiency of parameter estimates obtained using different imputation methods were compared. Both MICE methods produced unbiased estimates of (log) hazard ratios, but random forest was more efficient and produced narrower confidence intervals. The second study used simulated data in which the partially observed variable depended on the fully observed variables in a nonlinear way. Parameter estimates were less biased using random forest MICE, and confidence interval coverage was better. This suggests that random forest imputation may be useful for imputing complex epidemiologic data sets in which some patients have missing data.

Modeling Linguistic Variables With Regression Models: Addressing Non-Gaussian Distributions, Non-independent Observations, and Non-linear Predictors With Random Effects and Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale, and Shape

PubMed Central

Coupé, Christophe

2018-01-01

As statistical approaches are getting increasingly used in linguistics, attention must be paid to the choice of methods and algorithms used. This is especially true since they require assumptions to be satisfied to provide valid results, and because scientific articles still often fall short of reporting whether such assumptions are met. Progress is being, however, made in various directions, one of them being the introduction of techniques able to model data that cannot be properly analyzed with simpler linear regression models. We report recent advances in statistical modeling in linguistics. We first describe linear mixed-effects regression models (LMM), which address grouping of observations, and generalized linear mixed-effects models (GLMM), which offer a family of distributions for the dependent variable. Generalized additive models (GAM) are then introduced, which allow modeling non-linear parametric or non-parametric relationships between the dependent variable and the predictors. We then highlight the possibilities offered by generalized additive models for location, scale, and shape (GAMLSS). We explain how they make it possible to go beyond common distributions, such as Gaussian or Poisson, and offer the appropriate inferential framework to account for ‘difficult’ variables such as count data with strong overdispersion. We also demonstrate how they offer interesting perspectives on data when not only the mean of the dependent variable is modeled, but also its variance, skewness, and kurtosis. As an illustration, the case of phonemic inventory size is analyzed throughout the article. For over 1,500 languages, we consider as predictors the number of speakers, the distance from Africa, an estimation of the intensity of language contact, and linguistic relationships. We discuss the use of random effects to account for genealogical relationships, the choice of appropriate distributions to model count data, and non-linear relationships. Relying on GAMLSS, we assess a range of candidate distributions, including the Sichel, Delaporte, Box-Cox Green and Cole, and Box-Cox t distributions. We find that the Box-Cox t distribution, with appropriate modeling of its parameters, best fits the conditional distribution of phonemic inventory size. We finally discuss the specificities of phoneme counts, weak effects, and how GAMLSS should be considered for other linguistic variables. PMID:29713298

Modeling Linguistic Variables With Regression Models: Addressing Non-Gaussian Distributions, Non-independent Observations, and Non-linear Predictors With Random Effects and Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale, and Shape.

PubMed

Coupé, Christophe

2018-01-01

As statistical approaches are getting increasingly used in linguistics, attention must be paid to the choice of methods and algorithms used. This is especially true since they require assumptions to be satisfied to provide valid results, and because scientific articles still often fall short of reporting whether such assumptions are met. Progress is being, however, made in various directions, one of them being the introduction of techniques able to model data that cannot be properly analyzed with simpler linear regression models. We report recent advances in statistical modeling in linguistics. We first describe linear mixed-effects regression models (LMM), which address grouping of observations, and generalized linear mixed-effects models (GLMM), which offer a family of distributions for the dependent variable. Generalized additive models (GAM) are then introduced, which allow modeling non-linear parametric or non-parametric relationships between the dependent variable and the predictors. We then highlight the possibilities offered by generalized additive models for location, scale, and shape (GAMLSS). We explain how they make it possible to go beyond common distributions, such as Gaussian or Poisson, and offer the appropriate inferential framework to account for 'difficult' variables such as count data with strong overdispersion. We also demonstrate how they offer interesting perspectives on data when not only the mean of the dependent variable is modeled, but also its variance, skewness, and kurtosis. As an illustration, the case of phonemic inventory size is analyzed throughout the article. For over 1,500 languages, we consider as predictors the number of speakers, the distance from Africa, an estimation of the intensity of language contact, and linguistic relationships. We discuss the use of random effects to account for genealogical relationships, the choice of appropriate distributions to model count data, and non-linear relationships. Relying on GAMLSS, we assess a range of candidate distributions, including the Sichel, Delaporte, Box-Cox Green and Cole, and Box-Cox t distributions. We find that the Box-Cox t distribution, with appropriate modeling of its parameters, best fits the conditional distribution of phonemic inventory size. We finally discuss the specificities of phoneme counts, weak effects, and how GAMLSS should be considered for other linguistic variables.

Commande de vol non lineaire d'un drone a voilure fixe par la methode du backstepping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Finoki, Edouard

This thesis describes the design of a non-linear controller for a UAV using the backstepping method. It is a fixed-wing UAV, the NexSTAR ARF from HobbicoRTM. The aim is to find the expressions of the aileron, the elevator, and the rudder deflection in order to command the flight path angle, the heading angle and the sideslip angle. Controlling the flight path angle allows a steady, climb or descent flight, controlling the heading cap allows to choose the heading and annul the sideslip angle allows an efficient flight. A good technical control has to ensure the stability of the system and provide optimal performances. Backstepping interlaces the choice of a Lyapunov function with the design of feedback control. This control technique works with the true non-linear model without any approximation. The procedure is to transform intermediate state variables into virtual inputs which will control other state variables. Advantages of this technique are its recursivity, its minimum control effort and its cascaded structure that allows dividing a high order system into several simpler lower order systems. To design this non-linear controller, a non-linear model of the UAV was used. Equations of motion are very accurate, aerodynamic coefficients result from interpolations between several essential variables in flight. The controller has been implemented in Matlab/Simulink and FlightGear.

Nonlinear predictive control of a boiler-turbine unit: A state-space approach with successive on-line model linearisation and quadratic optimisation.

PubMed

Ławryńczuk, Maciej

2017-03-01

This paper details development of a Model Predictive Control (MPC) algorithm for a boiler-turbine unit, which is a nonlinear multiple-input multiple-output process. The control objective is to follow set-point changes imposed on two state (output) variables and to satisfy constraints imposed on three inputs and one output. In order to obtain a computationally efficient control scheme, the state-space model is successively linearised on-line for the current operating point and used for prediction. In consequence, the future control policy is easily calculated from a quadratic optimisation problem. For state estimation the extended Kalman filter is used. It is demonstrated that the MPC strategy based on constant linear models does not work satisfactorily for the boiler-turbine unit whereas the discussed algorithm with on-line successive model linearisation gives practically the same trajectories as the truly nonlinear MPC controller with nonlinear optimisation repeated at each sampling instant. Copyright © 2017 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Intraseasonal-to-semiannual variability of sea-surface height in the astern, equatorial Indian Ocean and southern Bay of Bengal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Xuhua; McCreary, Julian P.; Qiu, Bo; Qi, Yiquan; Du, Yan

2017-05-01

Intraseasonal-to-semiannual variability of sea-surface height (SSH) in the eastern, equatorial Indian Ocean (EEIO) and southern Bay of Bengal (BoB) is investigated using altimetric data, and solutions to 1½ layer (first baroclinic mode) and linear, continuously stratified (LCS; multibaroclinic-mode) models. The amplitude and dominant periods of SSH variability differ regionally. Large-amplitude variability is found along the west coast of Sumatra, in a zonal band across the BoB centered along 5°N, east of Sri Lanka, and in the northwestern BoB, respectively. Along the Sumatran west coast, SSH variability peaks at 30-60, 90, and 180 days. Along 5°N and east of Sri Lanka, the 30-60 day variability is dominant. Sensitivity experiments using a nonlinear version of the 1½ layer model forced by realistic winds reproduce the observed patterns of intraseasonal variability in the southern BoB. At 30-60 days, the solutions show that eddies (nonlinear Rossby waves) propagating from the east, rather than local wind forcing, account for most of the variance east of Sri Lanka; furthermore, they demonstrate that the variance is significantly enhanced by the nonlinear transfer of 90-120 day energy into the intraseasonal band of 30-60 days. The LCS solutions show that the first two baroclinic modes explain most of the SSH variance at 90-180 days. The second baroclinic mode dominates the SSH variance at 180 days, a consequence of basin resonance and strong wind forcing.

Ensemble survival tree models to reveal pairwise interactions of variables with time-to-events outcomes in low-dimensional setting

PubMed Central

Dazard, Jean-Eudes; Ishwaran, Hemant; Mehlotra, Rajeev; Weinberg, Aaron; Zimmerman, Peter

2018-01-01

Unraveling interactions among variables such as genetic, clinical, demographic and environmental factors is essential to understand the development of common and complex diseases. To increase the power to detect such variables interactions associated with clinical time-to-events outcomes, we borrowed established concepts from random survival forest (RSF) models. We introduce a novel RSF-based pairwise interaction estimator and derive a randomization method with bootstrap confidence intervals for inferring interaction significance. Using various linear and nonlinear time-to-events survival models in simulation studies, we first show the efficiency of our approach: true pairwise interaction-effects between variables are uncovered, while they may not be accompanied with their corresponding main-effects, and may not be detected by standard semi-parametric regression modeling and test statistics used in survival analysis. Moreover, using a RSF-based cross-validation scheme for generating prediction estimators, we show that informative predictors may be inferred. We applied our approach to an HIV cohort study recording key host gene polymorphisms and their association with HIV change of tropism or AIDS progression. Altogether, this shows how linear or nonlinear pairwise statistical interactions of variables may be efficiently detected with a predictive value in observational studies with time-to-event outcomes. PMID:29453930

Ensemble survival tree models to reveal pairwise interactions of variables with time-to-events outcomes in low-dimensional setting.

PubMed

Dazard, Jean-Eudes; Ishwaran, Hemant; Mehlotra, Rajeev; Weinberg, Aaron; Zimmerman, Peter

2018-02-17

Unraveling interactions among variables such as genetic, clinical, demographic and environmental factors is essential to understand the development of common and complex diseases. To increase the power to detect such variables interactions associated with clinical time-to-events outcomes, we borrowed established concepts from random survival forest (RSF) models. We introduce a novel RSF-based pairwise interaction estimator and derive a randomization method with bootstrap confidence intervals for inferring interaction significance. Using various linear and nonlinear time-to-events survival models in simulation studies, we first show the efficiency of our approach: true pairwise interaction-effects between variables are uncovered, while they may not be accompanied with their corresponding main-effects, and may not be detected by standard semi-parametric regression modeling and test statistics used in survival analysis. Moreover, using a RSF-based cross-validation scheme for generating prediction estimators, we show that informative predictors may be inferred. We applied our approach to an HIV cohort study recording key host gene polymorphisms and their association with HIV change of tropism or AIDS progression. Altogether, this shows how linear or nonlinear pairwise statistical interactions of variables may be efficiently detected with a predictive value in observational studies with time-to-event outcomes.

Data-based Non-Markovian Model Inference

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghil, Michael

2015-04-01

This talk concentrates on obtaining stable and efficient data-based models for simulation and prediction in the geosciences and life sciences. The proposed model derivation relies on using a multivariate time series of partial observations from a large-dimensional system, and the resulting low-order models are compared with the optimal closures predicted by the non-Markovian Mori-Zwanzig formalism of statistical physics. Multilayer stochastic models (MSMs) are introduced as both a very broad generalization and a time-continuous limit of existing multilevel, regression-based approaches to data-based closure, in particular of empirical model reduction (EMR). We show that the multilayer structure of MSMs can provide a natural Markov approximation to the generalized Langevin equation (GLE) of the Mori-Zwanzig formalism. A simple correlation-based stopping criterion for an EMR-MSM model is derived to assess how well it approximates the GLE solution. Sufficient conditions are given for the nonlinear cross-interactions between the constitutive layers of a given MSM to guarantee the existence of a global random attractor. This existence ensures that no blow-up can occur for a very broad class of MSM applications. The EMR-MSM methodology is first applied to a conceptual, nonlinear, stochastic climate model of coupled slow and fast variables, in which only slow variables are observed. The resulting reduced model with energy-conserving nonlinearities captures the main statistical features of the slow variables, even when there is no formal scale separation and the fast variables are quite energetic. Second, an MSM is shown to successfully reproduce the statistics of a partially observed, generalized Lokta-Volterra model of population dynamics in its chaotic regime. The positivity constraint on the solutions' components replaces here the quadratic-energy-preserving constraint of fluid-flow problems and it successfully prevents blow-up. This work is based on a close collaboration with M.D. Chekroun, D. Kondrashov, S. Kravtsov and A.W. Robertson.

Nonparametric model validations for hidden Markov models with applications in financial econometrics

PubMed Central

Zhao, Zhibiao

2011-01-01

We address the nonparametric model validation problem for hidden Markov models with partially observable variables and hidden states. We achieve this goal by constructing a nonparametric simultaneous confidence envelope for transition density function of the observable variables and checking whether the parametric density estimate is contained within such an envelope. Our specification test procedure is motivated by a functional connection between the transition density of the observable variables and the Markov transition kernel of the hidden states. Our approach is applicable for continuous time diffusion models, stochastic volatility models, nonlinear time series models, and models with market microstructure noise. PMID:21750601

VALIDITY OF A TWO-DIMENSIONAL MODEL FOR VARIABLE-DENSITY HYDRODYNAMIC CIRCULATION

EPA Science Inventory

A three-dimensional model of temperatures and currents has been formulated to assist in the analysis and interpretation of the dynamics of stratified lakes. In this model, nonlinear eddy coefficients for viscosity and conductivities are included. A two-dimensional model (one vert...

On the interannual oscillations in the northern temperate total ozone

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Krzyscin, J.W.

1994-07-01

The interannual variations in total ozone are studied using revised Dobson total ozone records (1961-1990) from 17 stations located within the latitude band 30 deg N - 60 deg N. To obtain the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and 11-year solar cycle manifestation in the `northern temperate` total ozone data, various multiple regression models are constructed by the least squares fitting to the observed ozone. The statistical relationships between the selected indices of the atmospheric variabilities and total ozone are described in the linear and nonlinear regression models. Nonlinear relationships to the predictor variables are found. That is,more » the total ozone variations are statistically modeled by nonlinear terms accounting for the coupling between QBO and ENSO, QBO and solar activity, and ENSO and solar activity. It is suggested that large reduction of total ozone values over the `northern temperate` region occurs in cold season when a strong ENSO warm event meets the west phase of the QBO during the period of high solar activity.« less

Documentation of computer program VS2D to solve the equations of fluid flow in variably saturated porous media

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lappala, E.G.; Healy, R.W.; Weeks, E.P.

1987-01-01

This report documents FORTRAN computer code for solving problems involving variably saturated single-phase flow in porous media. The flow equation is written with total hydraulic potential as the dependent variable, which allows straightforward treatment of both saturated and unsaturated conditions. The spatial derivatives in the flow equation are approximated by central differences, and time derivatives are approximated either by a fully implicit backward or by a centered-difference scheme. Nonlinear conductance and storage terms may be linearized using either an explicit method or an implicit Newton-Raphson method. Relative hydraulic conductivity is evaluated at cell boundaries by using either full upstream weighting, the arithmetic mean, or the geometric mean of values from adjacent cells. Nonlinear boundary conditions treated by the code include infiltration, evaporation, and seepage faces. Extraction by plant roots that is caused by atmospheric demand is included as a nonlinear sink term. These nonlinear boundary and sink terms are linearized implicitly. The code has been verified for several one-dimensional linear problems for which analytical solutions exist and against two nonlinear problems that have been simulated with other numerical models. A complete listing of data-entry requirements and data entry and results for three example problems are provided. (USGS)

Climate sensitivity to the lower stratospheric ozone variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kilifarska, N. A.

2012-12-01

The strong sensitivity of the Earth's radiation balance to variations in the lower stratospheric ozone—reported previously—is analysed here by the use of non-linear statistical methods. Our non-linear model of the land air temperature (T)—driven by the measured Arosa total ozone (TOZ)—explains 75% of total variability of Earth's T variations during the period 1926-2011. We have analysed also the factors which could influence the TOZ variability and found that the strongest impact belongs to the multi-decadal variations of galactic cosmic rays. Constructing a statistical model of the ozone variability, we have been able to predict the tendency in the land air T evolution till the end of the current decade. Results show that Earth is facing a weak cooling of the surface T by 0.05-0.25 K (depending on the ozone model) until the end of the current solar cycle. A new mechanism for O3 influence on climate is proposed.

Big Data Toolsets to Pharmacometrics: Application of Machine Learning for Time‐to‐Event Analysis

PubMed Central

Gong, Xiajing; Hu, Meng

2018-01-01

Abstract Additional value can be potentially created by applying big data tools to address pharmacometric problems. The performances of machine learning (ML) methods and the Cox regression model were evaluated based on simulated time‐to‐event data synthesized under various preset scenarios, i.e., with linear vs. nonlinear and dependent vs. independent predictors in the proportional hazard function, or with high‐dimensional data featured by a large number of predictor variables. Our results showed that ML‐based methods outperformed the Cox model in prediction performance as assessed by concordance index and in identifying the preset influential variables for high‐dimensional data. The prediction performances of ML‐based methods are also less sensitive to data size and censoring rates than the Cox regression model. In conclusion, ML‐based methods provide a powerful tool for time‐to‐event analysis, with a built‐in capacity for high‐dimensional data and better performance when the predictor variables assume nonlinear relationships in the hazard function. PMID:29536640

Application of numerical optimization techniques to control system design for nonlinear dynamic models of aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lan, C. Edward; Ge, Fuying

1989-01-01

Control system design for general nonlinear flight dynamic models is considered through numerical simulation. The design is accomplished through a numerical optimizer coupled with analysis of flight dynamic equations. The general flight dynamic equations are numerically integrated and dynamic characteristics are then identified from the dynamic response. The design variables are determined iteratively by the optimizer to optimize a prescribed objective function which is related to desired dynamic characteristics. Generality of the method allows nonlinear effects to aerodynamics and dynamic coupling to be considered in the design process. To demonstrate the method, nonlinear simulation models for an F-5A and an F-16 configurations are used to design dampers to satisfy specifications on flying qualities and control systems to prevent departure. The results indicate that the present method is simple in formulation and effective in satisfying the design objectives.

A 1.26 μW Cytomimetic IC Emulating Complex Nonlinear Mammalian Cell Cycle Dynamics: Synthesis, Simulation and Proof-of-Concept Measured Results.

PubMed

Houssein, Alexandros; Papadimitriou, Konstantinos I; Drakakis, Emmanuel M

2015-08-01

Cytomimetic circuits represent a novel, ultra low-power, continuous-time, continuous-value class of circuits, capable of mapping on silicon cellular and molecular dynamics modelled by means of nonlinear ordinary differential equations (ODEs). Such monolithic circuits are in principle able to emulate on chip, single or multiple cell operations in a highly parallel fashion. Cytomimetic topologies can be synthesized by adopting the Nonlinear Bernoulli Cell Formalism (NBCF), a mathematical framework that exploits the striking similarities between the equations describing weakly-inverted Metal-Oxide Semiconductor (MOS) devices and coupled nonlinear ODEs, typically appearing in models of naturally encountered biochemical systems. The NBCF maps biological state variables onto strictly positive subthreshold MOS circuit currents. This paper presents the synthesis, the simulation and proof-of-concept chip results corresponding to the emulation of a complex cellular network mechanism, the skeleton model for the network of Cyclin-dependent Kinases (CdKs) driving the mammalian cell cycle. This five variable nonlinear biological model, when appropriate model parameter values are assigned, can exhibit multiple oscillatory behaviors, varying from simple periodic oscillations, to complex oscillations such as quasi-periodicity and chaos. The validity of our approach is verified by simulated results with realistic process parameters from the commercially available AMS 0.35 μm technology and by chip measurements. The fabricated chip occupies an area of 2.27 mm2 and consumes a power of 1.26 μW from a power supply of 3 V. The presented cytomimetic topology follows closely the behavior of its biological counterpart, exhibiting similar time-dependent solutions of the Cdk complexes, the transcription factors and the proteins.

Predicting human chronically paralyzed muscle force: a comparison of three mathematical models.

PubMed

Frey Law, Laura A; Shields, Richard K

2006-03-01

Chronic spinal cord injury (SCI) induces detrimental musculoskeletal adaptations that adversely affect health status, ranging from muscle paralysis and skin ulcerations to osteoporosis. SCI rehabilitative efforts may increasingly focus on preserving the integrity of paralyzed extremities to maximize health quality using electrical stimulation for isometric training and/or functional activities. Subject-specific mathematical muscle models could prove valuable for predicting the forces necessary to achieve therapeutic loading conditions in individuals with paralyzed limbs. Although numerous muscle models are available, three modeling approaches were chosen that can accommodate a variety of stimulation input patterns. To our knowledge, no direct comparisons between models using paralyzed muscle have been reported. The three models include 1) a simple second-order linear model with three parameters and 2) two six-parameter nonlinear models (a second-order nonlinear model and a Hill-derived nonlinear model). Soleus muscle forces from four individuals with complete, chronic SCI were used to optimize each model's parameters (using an increasing and decreasing frequency ramp) and to assess the models' predictive accuracies for constant and variable (doublet) stimulation trains at 5, 10, and 20 Hz in each individual. Despite the large differences in modeling approaches, the mean predicted force errors differed only moderately (8-15% error; P=0.0042), suggesting physiological force can be adequately represented by multiple mathematical constructs. The two nonlinear models predicted specific force characteristics better than the linear model in nearly all stimulation conditions, with minimal differences between the two nonlinear models. Either nonlinear mathematical model can provide reasonable force estimates; individual application needs may dictate the preferred modeling strategy.

IN11B-1621: Quantifying How Climate Affects Vegetation in the Amazon Rainforest

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Das, Kamalika; Kodali, Anuradha; Szubert, Marcin; Ganguly, Sangram; Bongard, Joshua

2016-01-01

Amazon droughts in 2005 and 2010 have raised serious concern about the future of the rainforest. Amazon forests are crucial because of their role as the largest carbon sink in the world which would effect the global warming phenomena with decreased photosynthesis activity. Especially, after a decline in plant growth in 1.68 million km2 forest area during the once-in-a-century severe drought in 2010, it is of primary importance to understand the relationship between different climatic variables and vegetation. In an earlier study, we have shown that non-linear models are better at capturing the relation dynamics of vegetation and climate variables such as temperature and precipitation, compared to linear models. In this research, we learn precise models between vegetation and climatic variables (temperature, precipitation) for normal conditions in the Amazon region using genetic programming based symbolic regression. This is done by removing high elevation and drought affected areas and also considering the slope of the region as one of the important factors while building the model. The model learned reveals new and interesting ways historical and current climate variables affect the vegetation at any location. MAIAC data has been used as a vegetation surrogate in our study. For temperature and precipitation, we have used TRMM and MODIS Land Surface Temperature data sets while learning the non-linear regression model. However, to generalize the model to make it independent of the data source, we perform transfer learning where we regress a regularized least squares to learn the parameters of the non-linear model using other data sources such as the precipitation and temperature from the Climatic Research Center (CRU). This new model is very similar in structure and performance compared to the original learned model and verifies the same claims about the nature of dependency between these climate variables and the vegetation in the Amazon region. As a result of this study, we are able to learn, for the very first time how exactly different climate factors influence vegetation at any location in the Amazon rainforests, independent of the specific sources from which the data has been obtained.

Quantifying How Climate Affects Vegetation in the Amazon Rainforest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Das, K.; Kodali, A.; Szubert, M.; Ganguly, S.; Bongard, J.

2016-12-01

Amazon droughts in 2005 and 2010 have raised serious concern about the future of the rainforest. Amazon forests are crucial because of their role as the largest carbon sink in the world which would effect the global warming phenomena with decreased photosynthesis activity. Especially, after a decline in plant growth in 1.68 million km2 forest area during the once-in-a-century severe drought in 2010, it is of primary importance to understand the relationship between different climatic variables and vegetation. In an earlier study, we have shown that non-linear models are better at capturing the relation dynamics of vegetation and climate variables such as temperature and precipitation, compared to linear models. In this research, we learn precise models between vegetation and climatic variables (temperature, precipitation) for normal conditions in the Amazon region using genetic programming based symbolic regression. This is done by removing high elevation and drought affected areas and also considering the slope of the region as one of the important factors while building the model. The model learned reveals new and interesting ways historical and current climate variables affect the vegetation at any location. MAIAC data has been used as a vegetation surrogate in our study. For temperature and precipitation, we have used TRMM and MODIS Land Surface Temperature data sets while learning the non-linear regression model. However, to generalize the model to make it independent of the data source, we perform transfer learning where we regress a regularized least squares to learn the parameters of the non-linear model using other data sources such as the precipitation and temperature from the Climatic Research Center (CRU). This new model is very similar in structure and performance compared to the original learned model and verifies the same claims about the nature of dependency between these climate variables and the vegetation in the Amazon region. As a result of this study, we are able to learn, for the very first time how exactly different climate factors influence vegetation at any location in the Amazon rainforests, independent of the specific sources from which the data has been obtained.

Modeling climate effects on hip fracture rate by the multivariate GARCH model in Montreal region, Canada.

PubMed

Modarres, Reza; Ouarda, Taha B M J; Vanasse, Alain; Orzanco, Maria Gabriela; Gosselin, Pierre

2014-07-01

Changes in extreme meteorological variables and the demographic shift towards an older population have made it important to investigate the association of climate variables and hip fracture by advanced methods in order to determine the climate variables that most affect hip fracture incidence. The nonlinear autoregressive moving average with exogenous variable-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARMAX-GARCH) and multivariate GARCH (MGARCH) time series approaches were applied to investigate the nonlinear association between hip fracture rate in female and male patients aged 40-74 and 75+ years and climate variables in the period of 1993-2004, in Montreal, Canada. The models describe 50-56% of daily variation in hip fracture rate and identify snow depth, air temperature, day length and air pressure as the influencing variables on the time-varying mean and variance of the hip fracture rate. The conditional covariance between climate variables and hip fracture rate is increasing exponentially, showing that the effect of climate variables on hip fracture rate is most acute when rates are high and climate conditions are at their worst. In Montreal, climate variables, particularly snow depth and air temperature, appear to be important predictors of hip fracture incidence. The association of climate variables and hip fracture does not seem to change linearly with time, but increases exponentially under harsh climate conditions. The results of this study can be used to provide an adaptive climate-related public health program and ti guide allocation of services for avoiding hip fracture risk.

Modeling climate effects on hip fracture rate by the multivariate GARCH model in Montreal region, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Modarres, Reza; Ouarda, Taha B. M. J.; Vanasse, Alain; Orzanco, Maria Gabriela; Gosselin, Pierre

2014-07-01

Changes in extreme meteorological variables and the demographic shift towards an older population have made it important to investigate the association of climate variables and hip fracture by advanced methods in order to determine the climate variables that most affect hip fracture incidence. The nonlinear autoregressive moving average with exogenous variable-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARMA X-GARCH) and multivariate GARCH (MGARCH) time series approaches were applied to investigate the nonlinear association between hip fracture rate in female and male patients aged 40-74 and 75+ years and climate variables in the period of 1993-2004, in Montreal, Canada. The models describe 50-56 % of daily variation in hip fracture rate and identify snow depth, air temperature, day length and air pressure as the influencing variables on the time-varying mean and variance of the hip fracture rate. The conditional covariance between climate variables and hip fracture rate is increasing exponentially, showing that the effect of climate variables on hip fracture rate is most acute when rates are high and climate conditions are at their worst. In Montreal, climate variables, particularly snow depth and air temperature, appear to be important predictors of hip fracture incidence. The association of climate variables and hip fracture does not seem to change linearly with time, but increases exponentially under harsh climate conditions. The results of this study can be used to provide an adaptive climate-related public health program and ti guide allocation of services for avoiding hip fracture risk.

A non-modal analytical method to predict turbulent properties applied to the Hasegawa-Wakatani model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Friedman, B., E-mail: friedman11@llnl.gov; Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California 94550; Carter, T. A.

2015-01-15

Linear eigenmode analysis often fails to describe turbulence in model systems that have non-normal linear operators and thus nonorthogonal eigenmodes, which can cause fluctuations to transiently grow faster than expected from eigenmode analysis. When combined with energetically conservative nonlinear mode mixing, transient growth can lead to sustained turbulence even in the absence of eigenmode instability. Since linear operators ultimately provide the turbulent fluctuations with energy, it is useful to define a growth rate that takes into account non-modal effects, allowing for prediction of energy injection, transport levels, and possibly even turbulent onset in the subcritical regime. We define such amore » non-modal growth rate using a relatively simple model of the statistical effect that the nonlinearities have on cross-phases and amplitude ratios of the system state variables. In particular, we model the nonlinearities as delta-function-like, periodic forces that randomize the state variables once every eddy turnover time. Furthermore, we estimate the eddy turnover time to be the inverse of the least stable eigenmode frequency or growth rate, which allows for prediction without nonlinear numerical simulation. We test this procedure on the 2D and 3D Hasegawa-Wakatani model [A. Hasegawa and M. Wakatani, Phys. Rev. Lett. 50, 682 (1983)] and find that the non-modal growth rate is a good predictor of energy injection rates, especially in the strongly non-normal, fully developed turbulence regime.« less

A non-modal analytical method to predict turbulent properties applied to the Hasegawa-Wakatani model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Friedman, B.; Carter, T. A.

2015-01-15

Linear eigenmode analysis often fails to describe turbulence in model systems that have non-normal linear operators and thus nonorthogonal eigenmodes, which can cause fluctuations to transiently grow faster than expected from eigenmode analysis. When combined with energetically conservative nonlinear mode mixing, transient growth can lead to sustained turbulence even in the absence of eigenmode instability. Since linear operators ultimately provide the turbulent fluctuations with energy, it is useful to define a growth rate that takes into account non-modal effects, allowing for prediction of energy injection, transport levels, and possibly even turbulent onset in the subcritical regime. Here, we define suchmore » a non-modal growth rate using a relatively simple model of the statistical effect that the nonlinearities have on cross-phases and amplitude ratios of the system state variables. In particular, we model the nonlinearities as delta-function-like, periodic forces that randomize the state variables once every eddy turnover time. Furthermore, we estimate the eddy turnover time to be the inverse of the least stable eigenmode frequency or growth rate, which allows for prediction without nonlinear numerical simulation. Also, we test this procedure on the 2D and 3D Hasegawa-Wakatani model [A. Hasegawa and M. Wakatani, Phys. Rev. Lett. 50, 682 (1983)] and find that the non-modal growth rate is a good predictor of energy injection rates, especially in the strongly non-normal, fully developed turbulence regime.« less

Thermal radiation and heat generation/absorption aspects in third grade magneto-nanofluid over a slendering stretching sheet with Newtonian conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qayyum, Sajid; Hayat, Tasawar; Alsaedi, Ahmed

2018-05-01

Mathematical modeling for magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) radiative flow of third grade nano-material bounded by a nonlinear stretching sheet with variable thickness is introduced. The sheet moves with nonlinear velocity. Definitions of thermal radiation and heat generation/absorption are utilized in the energy expression. Intention in present investigation is to develop a model for nanomaterial comprising Brownian motion and thermophoresis phenomena. Newtonian conditions for heat and mass species are imposed. Governing equations of the locally similar flow are attempted through a homotopic technique and behaviors of involved variables on the flow fields are displayed graphically. It is revealed that increasing values of thermal conjugate variable corresponds to high temperature. Numerical investigation are explored to obtain the results of skin friction coefficient and local Nusselt and Sherwood numbers. It is revealed that velocity field reduces in the frame of magnetic variable while reverse situation is observed due to mixed convection parameter. Here qualitative behaviors of thermal field and heat transfer rate are opposite for thermophoresis variable. Moreover nanoparticle concentration and local Sherwood number via Brownian motion parameter are opposite.

Estimation of Hidden State Variables of the Intracranial System Using Constrained Nonlinear Kalman Filters

PubMed Central

Nenov, Valeriy; Bergsneider, Marvin; Glenn, Thomas C.; Vespa, Paul; Martin, Neil

2007-01-01

Impeded by the rigid skull, assessment of physiological variables of the intracranial system is difficult. A hidden state estimation approach is used in the present work to facilitate the estimation of unobserved variables from available clinical measurements including intracranial pressure (ICP) and cerebral blood flow velocity (CBFV). The estimation algorithm is based on a modified nonlinear intracranial mathematical model, whose parameters are first identified in an offline stage using a nonlinear optimization paradigm. Following the offline stage, an online filtering process is performed using a nonlinear Kalman filter (KF)-like state estimator that is equipped with a new way of deriving the Kalman gain satisfying the physiological constraints on the state variables. The proposed method is then validated by comparing different state estimation methods and input/output (I/O) configurations using simulated data. It is also applied to a set of CBFV, ICP and arterial blood pressure (ABP) signal segments from brain injury patients. The results indicated that the proposed constrained nonlinear KF achieved the best performance among the evaluated state estimators and that the state estimator combined with the I/O configuration that has ICP as the measured output can potentially be used to estimate CBFV continuously. Finally, the state estimator combined with the I/O configuration that has both ICP and CBFV as outputs can potentially estimate the lumped cerebral arterial radii, which are not measurable in a typical clinical environment. PMID:17281533

Estimation and Model Selection for Finite Mixtures of Latent Interaction Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hsu, Jui-Chen

2011-01-01

Latent interaction models and mixture models have received considerable attention in social science research recently, but little is known about how to handle if unobserved population heterogeneity exists in the endogenous latent variables of the nonlinear structural equation models. The current study estimates a mixture of latent interaction…

Improving near-infrared prediction model robustness with support vector machine regression: a pharmaceutical tablet assay example.

PubMed

Igne, Benoît; Drennen, James K; Anderson, Carl A

2014-01-01

Changes in raw materials and process wear and tear can have significant effects on the prediction error of near-infrared calibration models. When the variability that is present during routine manufacturing is not included in the calibration, test, and validation sets, the long-term performance and robustness of the model will be limited. Nonlinearity is a major source of interference. In near-infrared spectroscopy, nonlinearity can arise from light path-length differences that can come from differences in particle size or density. The usefulness of support vector machine (SVM) regression to handle nonlinearity and improve the robustness of calibration models in scenarios where the calibration set did not include all the variability present in test was evaluated. Compared to partial least squares (PLS) regression, SVM regression was less affected by physical (particle size) and chemical (moisture) differences. The linearity of the SVM predicted values was also improved. Nevertheless, although visualization and interpretation tools have been developed to enhance the usability of SVM-based methods, work is yet to be done to provide chemometricians in the pharmaceutical industry with a regression method that can supplement PLS-based methods.

New thermodynamics of entropy generation minimization with nonlinear thermal radiation and nanomaterials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayat, T.; Khan, M. Ijaz; Qayyum, Sumaira; Alsaedi, A.; Khan, M. Imran

2018-03-01

This research addressed entropy generation for MHD stagnation point flow of viscous nanofluid over a stretching surface. Characteristics of heat transport are analyzed through nonlinear radiation and heat generation/absorption. Nanoliquid features for Brownian moment and thermophoresis have been considered. Fluid in the presence of constant applied inclined magnetic field is considered. Flow problem is mathematically modeled and governing expressions are changed into nonlinear ordinary ones by utilizing appropriate transformations. The effects of pertinent variables on velocity, nanoparticle concentration and temperature are discussed graphically. Furthermore Brownian motion and thermophoresis effects on entropy generation and Bejan number have been examined. Total entropy generation is inspected through various flow variables. Consideration is mainly given to the convergence process. Velocity, temperature and mass gradients at the surface of sheet are calculated numerically.

A nonlinear cochlear model with the outer hair cell piezoelectric activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Xiaoai; Grosh, Karl

2003-10-01

In this paper we present a simple cochlear model which captures the most important aspect of nonlinearity in the cochlea-the nonlinearity caused by the piezoelectric-like activity of outer hair cells and the variable conductance of the outer hair cell stereocilia. A one-dimensional long-wave model is built to simulate the dynamic response of the fluid-loaded basilar membrane. The basilar membrane is simulated as isolated linear oscillators along the cochlear length, and its motion is coupled with the fluid pressure and the nonlinear force produced by the outer hair cells. As the basilar membrane moves, the fluid shears stereocilia, and the resulting ion flow changes the transmembrane potential of the outer hair cells and subsequently their length, leading to further movement of the basilar membrane. The piezoelectric-like activity of the outer hair cell is simulated by a current source, and stereocilia motion is modeled as a varying conductance that changes as the basilar membrane moves. A solution in the time domain will be presented. [Work supported by NIH.

Does preprocessing change nonlinear measures of heart rate variability?

PubMed

Gomes, Murilo E D; Guimarães, Homero N; Ribeiro, Antônio L P; Aguirre, Luis A

2002-11-01

This work investigated if methods used to produce a uniformly sampled heart rate variability (HRV) time series significantly change the deterministic signature underlying the dynamics of such signals and some nonlinear measures of HRV. Two methods of preprocessing were used: the convolution of inverse interval function values with a rectangular window and the cubic polynomial interpolation. The HRV time series were obtained from 33 Wistar rats submitted to autonomic blockade protocols and from 17 healthy adults. The analysis of determinism was carried out by the method of surrogate data sets and nonlinear autoregressive moving average modelling and prediction. The scaling exponents alpha, alpha(1) and alpha(2) derived from the detrended fluctuation analysis were calculated from raw HRV time series and respective preprocessed signals. It was shown that the technique of cubic interpolation of HRV time series did not significantly change any nonlinear characteristic studied in this work, while the method of convolution only affected the alpha(1) index. The results suggested that preprocessed time series may be used to study HRV in the field of nonlinear dynamics.

Variational Bayesian identification and prediction of stochastic nonlinear dynamic causal models.

PubMed

Daunizeau, J; Friston, K J; Kiebel, S J

2009-11-01

In this paper, we describe a general variational Bayesian approach for approximate inference on nonlinear stochastic dynamic models. This scheme extends established approximate inference on hidden-states to cover: (i) nonlinear evolution and observation functions, (ii) unknown parameters and (precision) hyperparameters and (iii) model comparison and prediction under uncertainty. Model identification or inversion entails the estimation of the marginal likelihood or evidence of a model. This difficult integration problem can be finessed by optimising a free-energy bound on the evidence using results from variational calculus. This yields a deterministic update scheme that optimises an approximation to the posterior density on the unknown model variables. We derive such a variational Bayesian scheme in the context of nonlinear stochastic dynamic hierarchical models, for both model identification and time-series prediction. The computational complexity of the scheme is comparable to that of an extended Kalman filter, which is critical when inverting high dimensional models or long time-series. Using Monte-Carlo simulations, we assess the estimation efficiency of this variational Bayesian approach using three stochastic variants of chaotic dynamic systems. We also demonstrate the model comparison capabilities of the method, its self-consistency and its predictive power.

Describing the Elephant: Structure and Function in Multivariate Data.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McDonald, Roderick P.

1986-01-01

There is a unity underlying the diversity of models for the analysis of multivariate data. Essentially, they constitute a family of models, most generally nonlinear, for structural/functional relations between variables drawn from a behavior domain. (Author)

The protection motivation theory within the stages of the transtheoretical model - stage-specific interplay of variables and prediction of exercise stage transitions.

PubMed

Lippke, Sonia; Plotnikoff, Ronald C

2009-05-01

Two different theories of health behaviour have been chosen with the aim of theory integration: a continuous theory (protection motivation theory, PMT) and a stage model (transtheoretical model, TTM). This is the first study to test whether the stages of the TTM moderate the interrelation of PMT-variables and the mediation of motivation, as well as PMT-variables' interactions in predicting stage transitions. Hypotheses were tested regarding (1) mean patterns, stage pair-comparisons and nonlinear trends using ANOVAs; (2) prediction-patterns for the different stage groups employing multi-group structural equation modelling (MSEM) and nested model analyses; and (3) stage transitions using binary logistic regression analyses. Adults (N=1,602) were assessed over a 6 month period on their physical activity stages, PMT-variables and subsequent behaviour. (1) Particular mean differences and nonlinear trends in all test variables were found. (2) The PMT adequately fitted the five stage groups. The MSEM revealed that covariances within threat appraisal and coping appraisal were invariant and all other constrains were stage-specific, i.e. stage was a moderator. Except for self-efficacy, motivation fully mediated the relationship between the social-cognitive variables and behaviour. (3) Predicting stage transitions with the PMT-variables underscored the importance of self-efficacy. Only when threat appraisal and coping appraisal were high, stage movement was more likely in the preparation stage. Results emphasize stage-specific differences of the PMT mechanisms, and hence, support the stage construct. The findings may guide further theory building and research integrating different theoretical approaches.

Application of a baseflow filter for evaluating model structure suitability of the IHACRES CMD

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, H. S.

2015-02-01

The main objective of this study was to assess the predictive uncertainty from the rainfall-runoff model structure coupling a conceptual module (non-linear module) with a metric transfer function module (linear module). The methodology was primarily based on the comparison between the outputs of the rainfall-runoff model and those from an alternative model approach. An alternative model approach was used to minimise uncertainties arising from data and the model structure. A baseflow filter was adopted to better understand deficiencies in the forms of the rainfall-runoff model by avoiding the uncertainties related to data and the model structure. The predictive uncertainty from the model structure was investigated for representative groups of catchments having similar hydrological response characteristics in the upper Murrumbidgee Catchment. In the assessment of model structure suitability, the consistency (or variability) of catchment response over time and space in model performance and parameter values has been investigated to detect problems related to the temporal and spatial variability of the model accuracy. The predictive error caused by model uncertainty was evaluated through analysis of the variability of the model performance and parameters. A graphical comparison of model residuals, effective rainfall estimates and hydrographs was used to determine a model's ability related to systematic model deviation between simulated and observed behaviours and general behavioural differences in the timing and magnitude of peak flows. The model's predictability was very sensitive to catchment response characteristics. The linear module performs reasonably well in the wetter catchments but has considerable difficulties when applied to the drier catchments where a hydrologic response is dominated by quick flow. The non-linear module has a potential limitation in its capacity to capture non-linear processes for converting observed rainfall into effective rainfall in both the wetter and drier catchments. The comparative study based on a better quantification of the accuracy and precision of hydrological modelling predictions yields a better understanding for the potential improvement of model deficiencies.

A Two-Step Approach to Analyze Satisfaction Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ferrari, Pier Alda; Pagani, Laura; Fiorio, Carlo V.

2011-01-01

In this paper a two-step procedure based on Nonlinear Principal Component Analysis (NLPCA) and Multilevel models (MLM) for the analysis of satisfaction data is proposed. The basic hypothesis is that observed ordinal variables describe different aspects of a latent continuous variable, which depends on covariates connected with individual and…

Modeling and enhanced sampling of molecular systems with smooth and nonlinear data-driven collective variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hashemian, Behrooz; Millán, Daniel; Arroyo, Marino

2013-12-01

Collective variables (CVs) are low-dimensional representations of the state of a complex system, which help us rationalize molecular conformations and sample free energy landscapes with molecular dynamics simulations. Given their importance, there is need for systematic methods that effectively identify CVs for complex systems. In recent years, nonlinear manifold learning has shown its ability to automatically characterize molecular collective behavior. Unfortunately, these methods fail to provide a differentiable function mapping high-dimensional configurations to their low-dimensional representation, as required in enhanced sampling methods. We introduce a methodology that, starting from an ensemble representative of molecular flexibility, builds smooth and nonlinear data-driven collective variables (SandCV) from the output of nonlinear manifold learning algorithms. We demonstrate the method with a standard benchmark molecule, alanine dipeptide, and show how it can be non-intrusively combined with off-the-shelf enhanced sampling methods, here the adaptive biasing force method. We illustrate how enhanced sampling simulations with SandCV can explore regions that were poorly sampled in the original molecular ensemble. We further explore the transferability of SandCV from a simpler system, alanine dipeptide in vacuum, to a more complex system, alanine dipeptide in explicit water.

Modeling and enhanced sampling of molecular systems with smooth and nonlinear data-driven collective variables.

PubMed

Hashemian, Behrooz; Millán, Daniel; Arroyo, Marino

2013-12-07

Collective variables (CVs) are low-dimensional representations of the state of a complex system, which help us rationalize molecular conformations and sample free energy landscapes with molecular dynamics simulations. Given their importance, there is need for systematic methods that effectively identify CVs for complex systems. In recent years, nonlinear manifold learning has shown its ability to automatically characterize molecular collective behavior. Unfortunately, these methods fail to provide a differentiable function mapping high-dimensional configurations to their low-dimensional representation, as required in enhanced sampling methods. We introduce a methodology that, starting from an ensemble representative of molecular flexibility, builds smooth and nonlinear data-driven collective variables (SandCV) from the output of nonlinear manifold learning algorithms. We demonstrate the method with a standard benchmark molecule, alanine dipeptide, and show how it can be non-intrusively combined with off-the-shelf enhanced sampling methods, here the adaptive biasing force method. We illustrate how enhanced sampling simulations with SandCV can explore regions that were poorly sampled in the original molecular ensemble. We further explore the transferability of SandCV from a simpler system, alanine dipeptide in vacuum, to a more complex system, alanine dipeptide in explicit water.

On framing potential features of SWCNTs and MWCNTs in mixed convective flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayat, T.; Ullah, Siraj; Khan, M. Ijaz; Alsaedi, A.

2018-03-01

Our target in this research article is to elaborate the characteristics of Darcy-Forchheimer relation in carbon-water nanoliquid flow induced by impermeable stretched cylinder. Energy expression is modeled through viscous dissipation and nonlinear thermal radiation. Application of appropriate transformations yields nonlinear ODEs through nonlinear PDEs. Shooting technique is adopted for the computations of nonlinear ODEs. Importance of influential variables for velocity and thermal fields is elaborated graphically. Moreover rate of heat transfer and drag force are calculated and demonstrated through Tables. Our analysis reports that velocity is higher for ratio of rate constant and buoyancy factor when compared with porosity and volume fraction.

General implementation of arbitrary nonlinear quadrature phase gates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marek, Petr; Filip, Radim; Ogawa, Hisashi; Sakaguchi, Atsushi; Takeda, Shuntaro; Yoshikawa, Jun-ichi; Furusawa, Akira

2018-02-01

We propose general methodology of deterministic single-mode quantum interaction nonlinearly modifying single quadrature variable of a continuous-variable system. The methodology is based on linear coupling of the system to ancillary systems subsequently measured by quadrature detectors. The nonlinear interaction is obtained by using the data from the quadrature detection for dynamical manipulation of the coupling parameters. This measurement-induced methodology enables direct realization of arbitrary nonlinear quadrature interactions without the need to construct them from the lowest-order gates. Such nonlinear interactions are crucial for more practical and efficient manipulation of continuous quadrature variables as well as qubits encoded in continuous-variable systems.

A simple ecohydrological model captures essentials of seasonal leaf dynamics in semi-arid tropical grasslands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choler, P.; Sea, W.; Briggs, P.; Raupach, M.; Leuning, R.

2009-09-01

Modelling leaf phenology in water-controlled ecosystems remains a difficult task because of high spatial and temporal variability in the interaction of plant growth and soil moisture. Here, we move beyond widely used linear models to examine the performance of low-dimensional, nonlinear ecohydrological models that couple the dynamics of plant cover and soil moisture. The study area encompasses 400 000 km2 of semi-arid perennial tropical grasslands, dominated by C4 grasses, in the Northern Territory and Queensland (Australia). We prepared 8 yr time series (2001-2008) of climatic variables and estimates of fractional vegetation cover derived from MODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for 400 randomly chosen sites, of which 25% were used for model calibration and 75% for model validation. We found that the mean absolute error of linear and nonlinear models did not markedly differ. However, nonlinear models presented key advantages: (1) they exhibited far less systematic error than their linear counterparts; (2) their error magnitude was consistent throughout a precipitation gradient while the performance of linear models deteriorated at the driest sites, and (3) they better captured the sharp transitions in leaf cover that are observed under high seasonality of precipitation. Our results showed that low-dimensional models including feedbacks between soil water balance and plant growth adequately predict leaf dynamics in semi-arid perennial grasslands. Because these models attempt to capture fundamental ecohydrological processes, they should be the favoured approach for prognostic models of phenology.

A simple ecohydrological model captures essentials of seasonal leaf dynamics in semi-arid tropical grasslands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choler, P.; Sea, W.; Briggs, P.; Raupach, M.; Leuning, R.

2010-03-01

Modelling leaf phenology in water-controlled ecosystems remains a difficult task because of high spatial and temporal variability in the interaction of plant growth and soil moisture. Here, we move beyond widely used linear models to examine the performance of low-dimensional, nonlinear ecohydrological models that couple the dynamics of plant cover and soil moisture. The study area encompasses 400 000 km2 of semi-arid perennial tropical grasslands, dominated by C4 grasses, in the Northern Territory and Queensland (Australia). We prepared 8-year time series (2001-2008) of climatic variables and estimates of fractional vegetation cover derived from MODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for 400 randomly chosen sites, of which 25% were used for model calibration and 75% for model validation. We found that the mean absolute error of linear and nonlinear models did not markedly differ. However, nonlinear models presented key advantages: (1) they exhibited far less systematic error than their linear counterparts; (2) their error magnitude was consistent throughout a precipitation gradient while the performance of linear models deteriorated at the driest sites, and (3) they better captured the sharp transitions in leaf cover that are observed under high seasonality of precipitation. Our results showed that low-dimensional models including feedbacks between soil water balance and plant growth adequately predict leaf dynamics in semi-arid perennial grasslands. Because these models attempt to capture fundamental ecohydrological processes, they should be the favoured approach for prognostic models of phenology.

A stepwise-cluster microbial biomass inference model in food waste composting

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sun Wei; Huang, Guo H., E-mail: huangg@iseis.or; Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Science, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 100012-102206

2009-12-15

A stepwise-cluster microbial biomass inference (SMI) model was developed through introducing stepwise-cluster analysis (SCA) into composting process modeling to tackle the nonlinear relationships among state variables and microbial activities. The essence of SCA is to form a classification tree based on a series of cutting or mergence processes according to given statistical criteria. Eight runs of designed experiments in bench-scale reactors in a laboratory were constructed to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed method. The results indicated that SMI could help establish a statistical relationship between state variables and composting microbial characteristics, where discrete and nonlinear complexities exist. Significance levelsmore » of cutting/merging were provided such that the accuracies of the developed forecasting trees were controllable. Through an attempted definition of input effects on the output in SMI, the effects of the state variables on thermophilic bacteria were ranged in a descending order as: Time (day) > moisture content (%) > ash content (%, dry) > Lower Temperature (deg. C) > pH > NH{sub 4}{sup +}-N (mg/Kg, dry) > Total N (%, dry) > Total C (%, dry); the effects on mesophilic bacteria were ordered as: Time > Upper Temperature (deg. C) > Total N > moisture content > NH{sub 4}{sup +}-N > Total C > pH. This study made the first attempt in applying SCA to mapping the nonlinear and discrete relationships in composting processes.« less

Computational Fluid Dynamics Modeling of a Supersonic Nozzle and Integration into a Variable Cycle Engine Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Connolly, Joseph W.; Friedlander, David; Kopasakis, George

2015-01-01

This paper covers the development of an integrated nonlinear dynamic simulation for a variable cycle turbofan engine and nozzle that can be integrated with an overall vehicle Aero-Propulso-Servo-Elastic (APSE) model. A previously developed variable cycle turbofan engine model is used for this study and is enhanced here to include variable guide vanes allowing for operation across the supersonic flight regime. The primary focus of this study is to improve the fidelity of the model's thrust response by replacing the simple choked flow equation convergent-divergent nozzle model with a MacCormack method based quasi-1D model. The dynamic response of the nozzle model using the MacCormack method is verified by comparing it against a model of the nozzle using the conservation element/solution element method. A methodology is also presented for the integration of the MacCormack nozzle model with the variable cycle engine.

Computational Fluid Dynamics Modeling of a Supersonic Nozzle and Integration into a Variable Cycle Engine Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Connolly, Joseph W.; Friedlander, David; Kopasakis, George

2014-01-01

This paper covers the development of an integrated nonlinear dynamic simulation for a variable cycle turbofan engine and nozzle that can be integrated with an overall vehicle Aero-Propulso-Servo-Elastic (APSE) model. A previously developed variable cycle turbofan engine model is used for this study and is enhanced here to include variable guide vanes allowing for operation across the supersonic flight regime. The primary focus of this study is to improve the fidelity of the model's thrust response by replacing the simple choked flow equation convergent-divergent nozzle model with a MacCormack method based quasi-1D model. The dynamic response of the nozzle model using the MacCormack method is verified by comparing it against a model of the nozzle using the conservation element/solution element method. A methodology is also presented for the integration of the MacCormack nozzle model with the variable cycle engine.

On the nonlinear forced response of the North Atlantic atmosphere to meridional shifts of the Gulf Stream path

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seo, H.; Kwon, Y. O.; Joyce, T. M.; Ummenhofer, C.

2016-12-01

This study examines the North Atlantic atmospheric circulation response to the meridional shift of Gulf Stream path using a large-ensemble, high-resolution, and hemispheric-scale WRF simulations. The model is forced with wintertime SST anomalies derived from a wide range of Gulf Stream shift scenarios. The key result of the model experiments, supported in part by an independent analysis of a reanalysis data set, is that the large-scale, quasi-steady North Atlantic circulation response is unambiguously nonlinear about the sign and amplitude of chosen SST anomalies. This nonlinear response prevails over the weak linear response and resembles the negative North Atlantic Oscillation, the leading intrinsic mode of variability in the model and the observations. Further analysis of the associated dynamics reveals that the nonlinear responses are accompanied by the anomalous southward shift of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet stream, which is reinforced nearly equally by the high-frequency transient eddy feedback and the low-frequency high-latitude wave breaking events. The result highlights the importance of the intrinsically nonlinear transient eddy dynamics and eddy-mean flow interactions in generating the nonlinear forced response to the meridional shift in the Gulf Stream.

Simple quasi-analytical holonomic homogenization model for the non-linear analysis of in-plane loaded masonry panels: Part 1, meso-scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Milani, G.; Bertolesi, E.

2017-07-01

A simple quasi analytical holonomic homogenization approach for the non-linear analysis of masonry walls in-plane loaded is presented. The elementary cell (REV) is discretized with 24 triangular elastic constant stress elements (bricks) and non-linear interfaces (mortar). A holonomic behavior with softening is assumed for mortar. It is shown how the mechanical problem in the unit cell is characterized by very few displacement variables and how homogenized stress-strain behavior can be evaluated semi-analytically.

Solution of nonlinear multivariable constrained systems using a gradient projection digital algorithm that is insensitive to the initial state

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hargrove, A.

1982-01-01

Optimal digital control of nonlinear multivariable constrained systems was studied. The optimal controller in the form of an algorithm was improved and refined by reducing running time and storage requirements. A particularly difficult system of nine nonlinear state variable equations was chosen as a test problem for analyzing and improving the controller. Lengthy analysis, modeling, computing and optimization were accomplished. A remote interactive teletype terminal was installed. Analysis requiring computer usage of short duration was accomplished using Tuskegee's VAX 11/750 system.

Extending nonlinear analysis to short ecological time series.

PubMed

Hsieh, Chih-hao; Anderson, Christian; Sugihara, George

2008-01-01

Nonlinearity is important and ubiquitous in ecology. Though detectable in principle, nonlinear behavior is often difficult to characterize, analyze, and incorporate mechanistically into models of ecosystem function. One obvious reason is that quantitative nonlinear analysis tools are data intensive (require long time series), and time series in ecology are generally short. Here we demonstrate a useful method that circumvents data limitation and reduces sampling error by combining ecologically similar multispecies time series into one long time series. With this technique, individual ecological time series containing as few as 20 data points can be mined for such important information as (1) significantly improved forecast ability, (2) the presence and location of nonlinearity, and (3) the effective dimensionality (the number of relevant variables) of an ecological system.

Relating the bipolar spectrum to dysregulation of behavioural activation: a perspective from dynamical modelling.

PubMed

Steinacher, Arno; Wright, Kim A

2013-01-01

Bipolar Disorders affect a substantial minority of the population and result in significant personal, social and economic costs. Understanding of the causes of, and consequently the most effective interventions for, this condition is an area requiring development. Drawing upon theories of Bipolar Disorder that propose the condition to be underpinned by dysregulation of systems governing behavioural activation or approach motivation, we present a mathematical model of the regulation of behavioural activation. The model is informed by non-linear, dynamical principles and as such proposes that the transition from "non-bipolar" to "bipolar" diagnostic status corresponds to a switch from mono- to multistability of behavioural activation level, rather than an increase in oscillation of mood. Consistent with descriptions of the behavioural activation or approach system in the literature, auto-activation and auto-inhibitory feedback is inherent within our model. Comparison between our model and empirical, observational data reveals that by increasing the non-linearity dimension in our model, important features of Bipolar Spectrum disorders are reproduced. Analysis from stochastic simulation of the system reveals the role of noise in behavioural activation regulation and indicates that an increase of nonlinearity promotes noise to jump scales from small fluctuations of activation levels to longer lasting, but less variable episodes. We conclude that further research is required to relate parameters of our model to key behavioural and biological variables observed in Bipolar Disorder.

Modeling dynamic interactions and coherence between marine zooplankton and fishes linked to environmental variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Hui; Fogarty, Michael J.; Hare, Jonathan A.; Hsieh, Chih-hao; Glaser, Sarah M.; Ye, Hao; Deyle, Ethan; Sugihara, George

2014-03-01

The dynamics of marine fishes are closely related to lower trophic levels and the environment. Quantitatively understanding ecosystem dynamics linking environmental variability and prey resources to exploited fishes is crucial for ecosystem-based management of marine living resources. However, standard statistical models typically grounded in the concept of linear system may fail to capture the complexity of ecological processes. We have attempted to model ecosystem dynamics using a flexible, nonparametric class of nonlinear forecasting models. We analyzed annual time series of four environmental indices, 22 marine copepod taxa, and four ecologically and commercially important fish species during 1977 to 2009 on Georges Bank, a highly productive and intensively studied area of the northeast U.S. continental shelf ecosystem. We examined the underlying dynamic features of environmental indices and copepods, quantified the dynamic interactions and coherence with fishes, and explored the potential control mechanisms of ecosystem dynamics from a nonlinear perspective. We found: (1) the dynamics of marine copepods and environmental indices exhibiting clear nonlinearity; (2) little evidence of complex dynamics across taxonomic levels of copepods; (3) strong dynamic interactions and coherence between copepods and fishes; and (4) the bottom-up forcing of fishes and top-down control of copepods coexisting as target trophic levels vary. These findings highlight the nonlinear interactions among ecosystem components and the importance of marine zooplankton to fish populations which point to two forcing mechanisms likely interactively regulating the ecosystem dynamics on Georges Bank under a changing environment.

Assessment of the uncertainty and predictive power of large-scale predictors for nonlinear precipitation downscaling in the European Arctic (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sauter, T.

2013-12-01

Despite the extensive research on downscaling methods there is still little consensus about the choice of useful atmospheric predictor variables. Besides the general decision of a proper statistical downscaling model, the selection of an informative predictor set is crucial for the accuracy and stability of the resulting downscaled time series. These requirements must be fullfilled by both the atmospheric variables and the predictor domains in terms of geographical location and spatial extend, to which in general not much attention is paid. However, only a limited number of studies is interested in the predictive capability of the predictor domain size or shape, and the question to what extent variability of neighboring grid points influence local-scale events. In this study we emphasized the spatial relationships between observed daily precipitation and selected number of atmospheric variables for the European Arctic. Several nonlinear regression models are used to link the large-scale predictors obtained from reanalysed Weather Research and Forecast model runs to the local-scale observed precipitation. Inferences on the sources of uncertainty are then drawn from variance based sensitivity measures, which also permit to capture interaction effects between individual predictors. The information is further used to develop more parsimonious downscaling models with only small decreases in accuracy. Individual predictors (without interactions) account for almost 2/3 of the total output variance, while the remaining fraction is solely due to interactions. Neglecting predictor interactions in the screening process will lead to some loss of information. Hence, linear screening methods are insufficient as they neither account for interactions nor for non-additivity as given by many nonlinear prediction algorithms.

Boosted Regression Tree Models to Explain Watershed Nutrient Concentrations and Biological Condition

EPA Science Inventory

Boosted regression tree (BRT) models were developed to quantify the nonlinear relationships between landscape variables and nutrient concentrations in a mesoscale mixed land cover watershed during base-flow conditions. Factors that affect instream biological components, based on ...

Applications of information theory, genetic algorithms, and neural models to predict oil flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ludwig, Oswaldo; Nunes, Urbano; Araújo, Rui; Schnitman, Leizer; Lepikson, Herman Augusto

2009-07-01

This work introduces a new information-theoretic methodology for choosing variables and their time lags in a prediction setting, particularly when neural networks are used in non-linear modeling. The first contribution of this work is the Cross Entropy Function (XEF) proposed to select input variables and their lags in order to compose the input vector of black-box prediction models. The proposed XEF method is more appropriate than the usually applied Cross Correlation Function (XCF) when the relationship among the input and output signals comes from a non-linear dynamic system. The second contribution is a method that minimizes the Joint Conditional Entropy (JCE) between the input and output variables by means of a Genetic Algorithm (GA). The aim is to take into account the dependence among the input variables when selecting the most appropriate set of inputs for a prediction problem. In short, theses methods can be used to assist the selection of input training data that have the necessary information to predict the target data. The proposed methods are applied to a petroleum engineering problem; predicting oil production. Experimental results obtained with a real-world dataset are presented demonstrating the feasibility and effectiveness of the method.

Modeling heart rate variability by stochastic feedback

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Amaral, L. A.; Goldberger, A. L.; Stanley, H. E.

1999-01-01

We consider the question of how the cardiac rhythm spontaneously self-regulates and propose a new mechanism as a possible answer. We model the neuroautonomic regulation of the heart rate as a stochastic feedback system and find that the model successfully accounts for key characteristics of cardiac variability, including the 1/f power spectrum, the functional form and scaling of the distribution of variations of the interbeat intervals, and the correlations in the Fourier phases which indicate nonlinear dynamics.

Modeling actual evapotranspiration with routine meteorological variables in the data-scarce region of the Tibetan Plateau: Comparisons and implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Ning; Zhang, Yinsheng; Xu, Chong-Yu; Szilagyi, Jozsef

2015-08-01

Quantitative estimation of actual evapotranspiration (ETa) by in situ measurements and mathematical modeling is a fundamental task for physical understanding of ETa as well as the feedback mechanisms between land and the ambient atmosphere. However, the ETa information in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) has been greatly impeded by the extremely sparse ground observation network in the region. Approaches for estimating ETa solely from routine meteorological variables are therefore important for investigating spatiotemporal variations of ETa in the data-scarce region of the TP. Motivated by this need, the complementary relationship (CR) and Penman-Monteith approaches were evaluated against in situ measurements of ETa on a daily basis in an alpine steppe region of the TP. The former includes the Nonlinear Complementary Relationship (Nonlinear-CR) as well as the Complementary Relationship Areal Evapotranspiration (CRAE) models, while the latter involves the Katerji-Perrier and the Todorovic models. Results indicate that the Nonlinear-CR, CRAE, and Katerji-Perrier models are all capable of efficiently simulating daily ETa, provided their parameter values were appropriately calibrated. The Katerji-Perrier model performed best since its site-specific parameters take the soil water status into account. The Nonlinear-CR model also performed well with the advantage of not requiring the user to choose between a symmetric and asymmetric CR. The CRAE model, even with a relatively low Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) value, is also an acceptable approach in this data-scarce region as it does not need information of wind speed and ground surface conditions. In contrast, application of the Todorovic model was found to be inappropriate in the dry regions of the TP due to its significant overestimation of ETa as it neglects the effect of water stress on the bulk surface resistance. Sensitivity analysis of the parameter values demonstrated the relative importance of each parameter in the corresponding model. Overall, the Nonlinear-CR model is recommended in the absence of measured ETa for local calibration of the model parameter values.

Robust check loss-based variable selection of high-dimensional single-index varying-coefficient model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Yunquan; Lin, Lu; Jian, Ling

2016-07-01

Single-index varying-coefficient model is an important mathematical modeling method to model nonlinear phenomena in science and engineering. In this paper, we develop a variable selection method for high-dimensional single-index varying-coefficient models using a shrinkage idea. The proposed procedure can simultaneously select significant nonparametric components and parametric components. Under defined regularity conditions, with appropriate selection of tuning parameters, the consistency of the variable selection procedure and the oracle property of the estimators are established. Moreover, due to the robustness of the check loss function to outliers in the finite samples, our proposed variable selection method is more robust than the ones based on the least squares criterion. Finally, the method is illustrated with numerical simulations.

CALCULATION OF NONLINEAR CONFIDENCE AND PREDICTION INTERVALS FOR GROUND-WATER FLOW MODELS.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cooley, Richard L.; Vecchia, Aldo V.

1987-01-01

A method is derived to efficiently compute nonlinear confidence and prediction intervals on any function of parameters derived as output from a mathematical model of a physical system. The method is applied to the problem of obtaining confidence and prediction intervals for manually-calibrated ground-water flow models. To obtain confidence and prediction intervals resulting from uncertainties in parameters, the calibrated model and information on extreme ranges and ordering of the model parameters within one or more independent groups are required. If random errors in the dependent variable are present in addition to uncertainties in parameters, then calculation of prediction intervals also requires information on the extreme range of error expected. A simple Monte Carlo method is used to compute the quantiles necessary to establish probability levels for the confidence and prediction intervals. Application of the method to a hypothetical example showed that inclusion of random errors in the dependent variable in addition to uncertainties in parameters can considerably widen the prediction intervals.

A comparison of the stochastic and machine learning approaches in hydrologic time series forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, T.; Joo, K.; Seo, J.; Heo, J. H.

2016-12-01

Hydrologic time series forecasting is an essential task in water resources management and it becomes more difficult due to the complexity of runoff process. Traditional stochastic models such as ARIMA family has been used as a standard approach in time series modeling and forecasting of hydrological variables. Due to the nonlinearity in hydrologic time series data, machine learning approaches has been studied with the advantage of discovering relevant features in a nonlinear relation among variables. This study aims to compare the predictability between the traditional stochastic model and the machine learning approach. Seasonal ARIMA model was used as the traditional time series model, and Random Forest model which consists of decision tree and ensemble method using multiple predictor approach was applied as the machine learning approach. In the application, monthly inflow data from 1986 to 2015 of Chungju dam in South Korea were used for modeling and forecasting. In order to evaluate the performances of the used models, one step ahead and multi-step ahead forecasting was applied. Root mean squared error and mean absolute error of two models were compared.

Vis-NIR spectrometric determination of Brix and sucrose in sugar production samples using kernel partial least squares with interval selection based on the successive projections algorithm.

PubMed

de Almeida, Valber Elias; de Araújo Gomes, Adriano; de Sousa Fernandes, David Douglas; Goicoechea, Héctor Casimiro; Galvão, Roberto Kawakami Harrop; Araújo, Mario Cesar Ugulino

2018-05-01

This paper proposes a new variable selection method for nonlinear multivariate calibration, combining the Successive Projections Algorithm for interval selection (iSPA) with the Kernel Partial Least Squares (Kernel-PLS) modelling technique. The proposed iSPA-Kernel-PLS algorithm is employed in a case study involving a Vis-NIR spectrometric dataset with complex nonlinear features. The analytical problem consists of determining Brix and sucrose content in samples from a sugar production system, on the basis of transflectance spectra. As compared to full-spectrum Kernel-PLS, the iSPA-Kernel-PLS models involve a smaller number of variables and display statistically significant superiority in terms of accuracy and/or bias in the predictions. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Force and Moment Approach for Achievable Dynamics Using Nonlinear Dynamic Inversion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ostroff, Aaron J.; Bacon, Barton J.

1999-01-01

This paper describes a general form of nonlinear dynamic inversion control for use in a generic nonlinear simulation to evaluate candidate augmented aircraft dynamics. The implementation is specifically tailored to the task of quickly assessing an aircraft's control power requirements and defining the achievable dynamic set. The achievable set is evaluated while undergoing complex mission maneuvers, and perfect tracking will be accomplished when the desired dynamics are achievable. Variables are extracted directly from the simulation model each iteration, so robustness is not an issue. Included in this paper is a description of the implementation of the forces and moments from simulation variables, the calculation of control effectiveness coefficients, methods for implementing different types of aerodynamic and thrust vectoring controls, adjustments for control effector failures, and the allocation approach used. A few examples illustrate the perfect tracking results obtained.

Equation-free mechanistic ecosystem forecasting using empirical dynamic modeling

PubMed Central

Ye, Hao; Beamish, Richard J.; Glaser, Sarah M.; Grant, Sue C. H.; Hsieh, Chih-hao; Richards, Laura J.; Schnute, Jon T.; Sugihara, George

2015-01-01

It is well known that current equilibrium-based models fall short as predictive descriptions of natural ecosystems, and particularly of fisheries systems that exhibit nonlinear dynamics. For example, model parameters assumed to be fixed constants may actually vary in time, models may fit well to existing data but lack out-of-sample predictive skill, and key driving variables may be misidentified due to transient (mirage) correlations that are common in nonlinear systems. With these frailties, it is somewhat surprising that static equilibrium models continue to be widely used. Here, we examine empirical dynamic modeling (EDM) as an alternative to imposed model equations and that accommodates both nonequilibrium dynamics and nonlinearity. Using time series from nine stocks of sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) from the Fraser River system in British Columbia, Canada, we perform, for the the first time to our knowledge, real-data comparison of contemporary fisheries models with equivalent EDM formulations that explicitly use spawning stock and environmental variables to forecast recruitment. We find that EDM models produce more accurate and precise forecasts, and unlike extensions of the classic Ricker spawner–recruit equation, they show significant improvements when environmental factors are included. Our analysis demonstrates the strategic utility of EDM for incorporating environmental influences into fisheries forecasts and, more generally, for providing insight into how environmental factors can operate in forecast models, thus paving the way for equation-free mechanistic forecasting to be applied in management contexts. PMID:25733874

Hierarchical cluster-based partial least squares regression (HC-PLSR) is an efficient tool for metamodelling of nonlinear dynamic models.

PubMed

Tøndel, Kristin; Indahl, Ulf G; Gjuvsland, Arne B; Vik, Jon Olav; Hunter, Peter; Omholt, Stig W; Martens, Harald

2011-06-01

Deterministic dynamic models of complex biological systems contain a large number of parameters and state variables, related through nonlinear differential equations with various types of feedback. A metamodel of such a dynamic model is a statistical approximation model that maps variation in parameters and initial conditions (inputs) to variation in features of the trajectories of the state variables (outputs) throughout the entire biologically relevant input space. A sufficiently accurate mapping can be exploited both instrumentally and epistemically. Multivariate regression methodology is a commonly used approach for emulating dynamic models. However, when the input-output relations are highly nonlinear or non-monotone, a standard linear regression approach is prone to give suboptimal results. We therefore hypothesised that a more accurate mapping can be obtained by locally linear or locally polynomial regression. We present here a new method for local regression modelling, Hierarchical Cluster-based PLS regression (HC-PLSR), where fuzzy C-means clustering is used to separate the data set into parts according to the structure of the response surface. We compare the metamodelling performance of HC-PLSR with polynomial partial least squares regression (PLSR) and ordinary least squares (OLS) regression on various systems: six different gene regulatory network models with various types of feedback, a deterministic mathematical model of the mammalian circadian clock and a model of the mouse ventricular myocyte function. Our results indicate that multivariate regression is well suited for emulating dynamic models in systems biology. The hierarchical approach turned out to be superior to both polynomial PLSR and OLS regression in all three test cases. The advantage, in terms of explained variance and prediction accuracy, was largest in systems with highly nonlinear functional relationships and in systems with positive feedback loops. HC-PLSR is a promising approach for metamodelling in systems biology, especially for highly nonlinear or non-monotone parameter to phenotype maps. The algorithm can be flexibly adjusted to suit the complexity of the dynamic model behaviour, inviting automation in the metamodelling of complex systems.

Hierarchical Cluster-based Partial Least Squares Regression (HC-PLSR) is an efficient tool for metamodelling of nonlinear dynamic models

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Deterministic dynamic models of complex biological systems contain a large number of parameters and state variables, related through nonlinear differential equations with various types of feedback. A metamodel of such a dynamic model is a statistical approximation model that maps variation in parameters and initial conditions (inputs) to variation in features of the trajectories of the state variables (outputs) throughout the entire biologically relevant input space. A sufficiently accurate mapping can be exploited both instrumentally and epistemically. Multivariate regression methodology is a commonly used approach for emulating dynamic models. However, when the input-output relations are highly nonlinear or non-monotone, a standard linear regression approach is prone to give suboptimal results. We therefore hypothesised that a more accurate mapping can be obtained by locally linear or locally polynomial regression. We present here a new method for local regression modelling, Hierarchical Cluster-based PLS regression (HC-PLSR), where fuzzy C-means clustering is used to separate the data set into parts according to the structure of the response surface. We compare the metamodelling performance of HC-PLSR with polynomial partial least squares regression (PLSR) and ordinary least squares (OLS) regression on various systems: six different gene regulatory network models with various types of feedback, a deterministic mathematical model of the mammalian circadian clock and a model of the mouse ventricular myocyte function. Results Our results indicate that multivariate regression is well suited for emulating dynamic models in systems biology. The hierarchical approach turned out to be superior to both polynomial PLSR and OLS regression in all three test cases. The advantage, in terms of explained variance and prediction accuracy, was largest in systems with highly nonlinear functional relationships and in systems with positive feedback loops. Conclusions HC-PLSR is a promising approach for metamodelling in systems biology, especially for highly nonlinear or non-monotone parameter to phenotype maps. The algorithm can be flexibly adjusted to suit the complexity of the dynamic model behaviour, inviting automation in the metamodelling of complex systems. PMID:21627852

Energetics of slope flows: linear and weakly nonlinear solutions of the extended Prandtl model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Güttler, Ivan; Marinović, Ivana; Večenaj, Željko; Grisogono, Branko

2016-07-01

The Prandtl model succinctly combines the 1D stationary boundary-layer dynamics and thermodynamics of simple anabatic and katabatic flows over uniformly inclined surfaces. It assumes a balance between the along-the-slope buoyancy component and adiabatic warming/cooling, and the turbulent mixing of momentum and heat. In this study, energetics of the Prandtl model is addressed in terms of the total energy (TE) concept. Furthermore, since the authors recently developed a weakly nonlinear version of the Prandtl model, the TE approach is also exercised on this extended model version, which includes an additional nonlinear term in the thermodynamic equation. Hence, interplay among diffusion, dissipation and temperature-wind interaction of the mean slope flow is further explored. The TE of the nonlinear Prandtl model is assessed in an ensemble of solutions where the Prandtl number, the slope angle and the nonlinearity parameter are perturbed. It is shown that nonlinear effects have the lowest impact on variability in the ensemble of solutions of the weakly nonlinear Prandtl model when compared to the other two governing parameters. The general behavior of the nonlinear solution is similar to the linear solution, except that the maximum of the along-the-slope wind speed in the nonlinear solution reduces for larger slopes. Also, the dominance of PE near the sloped surface, and the elevated maximum of KE in the linear and nonlinear energetics of the extended Prandtl model are found in the PASTEX-94 measurements. The corresponding level where KE>PE most likely marks the bottom of the sublayer subject to shear-driven instabilities. Finally, possible limitations of the weakly nonlinear solutions of the extended Prandtl model are raised. In linear solutions, the local storage of TE term is zero, reflecting the stationarity of solutions by definition. However, in nonlinear solutions, the diffusion, dissipation and interaction terms (where the height of the maximum interaction is proportional to the height of the low-level jet by the factor ≈4/9) do not balance and the local storage of TE attains non-zero values. In order to examine the issue of non-stationarity, the inclusion of velocity-pressure covariance in the momentum equation is suggested for future development of the extended Prandtl model.

Spatial variability of the effect of air pollution on term birth weight: evaluating influential factors using Bayesian hierarchical models.

PubMed

Li, Lianfa; Laurent, Olivier; Wu, Jun

2016-02-05

Epidemiological studies suggest that air pollution is adversely associated with pregnancy outcomes. Such associations may be modified by spatially-varying factors including socio-demographic characteristics, land-use patterns and unaccounted exposures. Yet, few studies have systematically investigated the impact of these factors on spatial variability of the air pollution's effects. This study aimed to examine spatial variability of the effects of air pollution on term birth weight across Census tracts and the influence of tract-level factors on such variability. We obtained over 900,000 birth records from 2001 to 2008 in Los Angeles County, California, USA. Air pollution exposure was modeled at individual level for nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) using spatiotemporal models. Two-stage Bayesian hierarchical non-linear models were developed to (1) quantify the associations between air pollution exposure and term birth weight within each tract; and (2) examine the socio-demographic, land-use, and exposure-related factors contributing to the between-tract variability of the associations between air pollution and term birth weight. Higher air pollution exposure was associated with lower term birth weight (average posterior effects: -14.7 (95 % CI: -19.8, -9.7) g per 10 ppb increment in NO2 and -6.9 (95 % CI: -12.9, -0.9) g per 10 ppb increment in NOx). The variation of the association across Census tracts was significantly influenced by the tract-level socio-demographic, exposure-related and land-use factors. Our models captured the complex non-linear relationship between these factors and the associations between air pollution and term birth weight: we observed the thresholds from which the influence of the tract-level factors was markedly exacerbated or attenuated. Exacerbating factors might reflect additional exposure to environmental insults or lower socio-economic status with higher vulnerability, whereas attenuating factors might indicate reduced exposure or higher socioeconomic status with lower vulnerability. Our Bayesian models effectively combined a priori knowledge with training data to infer the posterior association of air pollution with term birth weight and to evaluate the influence of the tract-level factors on spatial variability of such association. This study contributes new findings about non-linear influences of socio-demographic factors, land-use patterns, and unaccounted exposures on spatial variability of the effects of air pollution.

Effect Of Long-Period Earthquake Ground Motions On Nonlinear Vibration Of Shells With Variable Thickness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdikarimov, R.; Bykovtsev, A.; Khodzhaev, D.; Research Team Of Geotechnical; Structural Engineers

2010-12-01

Long-period earthquake ground motions (LPEGM) with multiple oscillations have become a crucial consideration in seismic hazard assessment because of the rapid increase of tall buildings and special structures (SP).Usually, SP refers to innovative long-span structural systems. More specifically, they include many types of structures, such as: geodesic showground; folded plates; and thin shells. As continuation of previous research (Bykovtsev, Abdikarimov, Khodzhaev 2003, 2010) analysis of nonlinear vibrations (NV) and dynamic stability of SP simulated as shells with variable rigidity in geometrically nonlinear statement will be presented for two cases. The first case will represent NV example of a viscoelastic orthotropic cylindrical shell with radius R, length L and variable thickness h=h(x,y). The second case will be NV example of a viscoelastic shell with double curvature, variable thickness, and bearing the concentrated masses. In both cases we count, that the SP will be operates under seismic load generated by LPEGM with multiple oscillations. For different seismic loads simulations, Bykovtsev’s Model and methodology was used for generating LPEGM time history. The methodology for synthesizing LPEGM from fault with multiple segmentations was developed by Bykovtev (1978-2010) and based on 3D-analytical solutions by Bykovtsev-Kramarovskii (1987&1989) constructed for faults with multiple segmentations. This model is based on a kinematics description of displacement function on the fault and included in consideration of all possible combinations of 3 components of vector displacement (two slip vectors and one tension component). The opportunities to take into consideration fault segmentations with both shear and tension vector components of displacement on the fault plane provide more accurate LPEGM evaluations. Radiation patterns and directivity effects were included in the model and more physically realistic results for simulated LPEGM were considered. The system of nonlinear integro-differential equations (NIDE) with variable coefficients concerning a deflection w=w(x,y) and displacements u=u(x,y), v=v(x,y) was used for construction mathematical model of the problem. The Kichhoff-Love hypothesis was used as basis for description physical and geometrical relations and construction of a discrete model of nonlinear problems dynamic theory of viscoelasticity. The most effective variational Bubnov-Galerkin method was used for obtaining Volterra type system of NIDE. The integration of the obtained equations system was carried out with the help of the numerical method based on quadrature formula. The computer codes on algorithmic language Delphi were created for investigation amplitude-time, deflected mode and torque-time characteristic of vibrations of the viscoelastic shells. For real composite materials at wide ranges of change of physical-mechanical and geometrical parameters the behavior of shells were investigated. Calculations were carried out at different laws of change of thickness. Results will be presented as graphs and tables.

A Bayesian Approach for Analyzing Longitudinal Structural Equation Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Song, Xin-Yuan; Lu, Zhao-Hua; Hser, Yih-Ing; Lee, Sik-Yum

2011-01-01

This article considers a Bayesian approach for analyzing a longitudinal 2-level nonlinear structural equation model with covariates, and mixed continuous and ordered categorical variables. The first-level model is formulated for measures taken at each time point nested within individuals for investigating their characteristics that are dynamically…

Applying additive modeling and gradient boosting to assess the effects of watershed and reach characteristics on riverine assemblages

USGS Publications Warehouse

Maloney, Kelly O.; Schmid, Matthias; Weller, Donald E.

2012-01-01

Issues with ecological data (e.g. non-normality of errors, nonlinear relationships and autocorrelation of variables) and modelling (e.g. overfitting, variable selection and prediction) complicate regression analyses in ecology. Flexible models, such as generalized additive models (GAMs), can address data issues, and machine learning techniques (e.g. gradient boosting) can help resolve modelling issues. Gradient boosted GAMs do both. Here, we illustrate the advantages of this technique using data on benthic macroinvertebrates and fish from 1573 small streams in Maryland, USA.

Modeling rainfall-runoff relationship using multivariate GARCH model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Modarres, R.; Ouarda, T. B. M. J.

2013-08-01

The traditional hydrologic time series approaches are used for modeling, simulating and forecasting conditional mean of hydrologic variables but neglect their time varying variance or the second order moment. This paper introduces the multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (MGARCH) modeling approach to show how the variance-covariance relationship between hydrologic variables varies in time. These approaches are also useful to estimate the dynamic conditional correlation between hydrologic variables. To illustrate the novelty and usefulness of MGARCH models in hydrology, two major types of MGARCH models, the bivariate diagonal VECH and constant conditional correlation (CCC) models are applied to show the variance-covariance structure and cdynamic correlation in a rainfall-runoff process. The bivariate diagonal VECH-GARCH(1,1) and CCC-GARCH(1,1) models indicated both short-run and long-run persistency in the conditional variance-covariance matrix of the rainfall-runoff process. The conditional variance of rainfall appears to have a stronger persistency, especially long-run persistency, than the conditional variance of streamflow which shows a short-lived drastic increasing pattern and a stronger short-run persistency. The conditional covariance and conditional correlation coefficients have different features for each bivariate rainfall-runoff process with different degrees of stationarity and dynamic nonlinearity. The spatial and temporal pattern of variance-covariance features may reflect the signature of different physical and hydrological variables such as drainage area, topography, soil moisture and ground water fluctuations on the strength, stationarity and nonlinearity of the conditional variance-covariance for a rainfall-runoff process.

Free oscillations in a climate model with ice-sheet dynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kallen, E.; Crafoord, C.; Ghil, M.

1979-01-01

A study of stable periodic solutions to a simple nonlinear model of the ocean-atmosphere-ice system is presented. The model has two dependent variables: ocean-atmosphere temperature and latitudinal extent of the ice cover. No explicit dependence on latitude is considered in the model. Hence all variables depend only on time and the model consists of a coupled set of nonlinear ordinary differential equations. The globally averaged ocean-atmosphere temperature in the model is governed by the radiation balance. The reflectivity to incoming solar radiation, i.e., the planetary albedo, includes separate contributions from sea ice and from continental ice sheets. The major physical mechanisms active in the model are (1) albedo-temperature feedback, (2) continental ice-sheet dynamics and (3) precipitation-rate variations. The model has three-equilibrium solutions, two of which are linearly unstable, while one is linearly stable. For some choices of parameters, the stability picture changes and sustained, finite-amplitude oscillations obtain around the previously stable equilibrium solution. The physical interpretation of these oscillations points to the possibility of internal mechanisms playing a role in glaciation cycles.

Inheritance of Cell-Cycle Duration in the Presence of Periodic Forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mosheiff, Noga; Martins, Bruno M. C.; Pearl-Mizrahi, Sivan; Grünberger, Alexander; Helfrich, Stefan; Mihalcescu, Irina; Kohlheyer, Dietrich; Locke, James C. W.; Glass, Leon; Balaban, Nathalie Q.

2018-04-01

Periodic forcing of nonlinear oscillators leads to a large number of dynamic behaviors. The coupling of the cell cycle to the circadian clock provides a biological realization of such forcing. A previous model of forcing leads to nontrivial relations between correlations along cell lineages. Here, we present a simplified two-dimensional nonlinear map for the periodic forcing of the cell cycle. Using high-throughput single-cell microscopy, we have studied the correlations between cell-cycle duration in discrete lineages of several different organisms, including those with known coupling to a circadian clock and those without known coupling to a circadian clock. The model reproduces the paradoxical correlations and predicts new features that can be compared with the experimental data. By fitting the model to the data, we extract the important parameters that govern the dynamics. Interestingly, the model reproduces bimodal distributions for cell-cycle duration, as well as the gating of cell division by the phase of the clock, without having been explicitly fed into the model. In addition, the model predicts that circadian coupling may increase cell-to-cell variability in a clonal population of cells. In agreement with this prediction, deletion of the circadian clock reduces variability. Our results show that simple correlations can identify systems under periodic forcing and that studies of nonlinear coupling of biological oscillators provide insight into basic cellular processes of growth.

Taper equation and volume tables for plantation-grown red alder.

Treesearch

Andrew A. Bluhm; Sean M. Garber; David E. Hibbs

2007-01-01

A taper equation and associated tables are presented for red alder (Alnus rubra Bong.) trees grown in plantations. The data were gathered from variable-density experimental plantations throughout the Pacific Northwest. Diameter inside bark along the stem was fitted to a variable exponent model form by using generalized nonlinear least squares and a...

Seasonality in trauma admissions - Are daylight and weather variables better predictors than general cyclic effects?

PubMed

Røislien, Jo; Søvik, Signe; Eken, Torsten

2018-01-01

Trauma is a leading global cause of death, and predicting the burden of trauma admissions is vital for good planning of trauma care. Seasonality in trauma admissions has been found in several studies. Seasonal fluctuations in daylight hours, temperature and weather affect social and cultural practices but also individual neuroendocrine rhythms that may ultimately modify behaviour and potentially predispose to trauma. The aim of the present study was to explore to what extent the observed seasonality in daily trauma admissions could be explained by changes in daylight and weather variables throughout the year. Retrospective registry study on trauma admissions in the 10-year period 2001-2010 at Oslo University Hospital, Ullevål, Norway, where the amount of daylight varies from less than 6 hours to almost 19 hours per day throughout the year. Daily number of admissions was analysed by fitting non-linear Poisson time series regression models, simultaneously adjusting for several layers of temporal patterns, including a non-linear long-term trend and both seasonal and weekly cyclic effects. Five daylight and weather variables were explored, including hours of daylight and amount of precipitation. Models were compared using Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC). A regression model including daylight and weather variables significantly outperformed a traditional seasonality model in terms of AIC. A cyclic week effect was significant in all models. Daylight and weather variables are better predictors of seasonality in daily trauma admissions than mere information on day-of-year.

Landscape-scale soil moisture heterogeneity and its influence on surface fluxes at the Jornada LTER site: Evaluating a new model parameterization for subgrid-scale soil moisture variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, I. T.; Prihodko, L.; Vivoni, E. R.; Denning, A. S.

2017-12-01

Arid and semiarid regions represent a large fraction of global land, with attendant importance of surface energy and trace gas flux to global totals. These regions are characterized by strong seasonality, especially in precipitation, that defines the level of ecosystem stress. Individual plants have been observed to respond non-linearly to increasing soil moisture stress, where plant function is generally maintained as soils dry down to a threshold at which rapid closure of stomates occurs. Incorporating this nonlinear mechanism into landscape-scale models can result in unrealistic binary "on-off" behavior that is especially problematic in arid landscapes. Subsequently, models have `relaxed' their simulation of soil moisture stress on evapotranspiration (ET). Unfortunately, these relaxations are not physically based, but are imposed upon model physics as a means to force a more realistic response. Previously, we have introduced a new method to represent soil moisture regulation of ET, whereby the landscape is partitioned into `BINS' of soil moisture wetness, each associated with a fractional area of the landscape or grid cell. A physically- and observationally-based nonlinear soil moisture stress function is applied, but when convolved with the relative area distribution represented by wetness BINS the system has the emergent property of `smoothing' the landscape-scale response without the need for non-physical impositions on model physics. In this research we confront BINS simulations of Bowen ratio, soil moisture variability and trace gas flux with soil moisture and eddy covariance observations taken at the Jornada LTER dryland site in southern New Mexico. We calculate the mean annual wetting cycle and associated variability about the mean state and evaluate model performance against this variability and time series of land surface fluxes from the highly instrumented Tromble Weir watershed. The BINS simulations capture the relatively rapid reaction to wetting events and more prolonged response to drying cycles, as opposed to binary behavior in the control.

Gene Expression Data to Mouse Atlas Registration Using a Nonlinear Elasticity Smoother and Landmark Points Constraints

PubMed Central

Lin, Tungyou; Guyader, Carole Le; Dinov, Ivo; Thompson, Paul; Toga, Arthur; Vese, Luminita

2013-01-01

This paper proposes a numerical algorithm for image registration using energy minimization and nonlinear elasticity regularization. Application to the registration of gene expression data to a neuroanatomical mouse atlas in two dimensions is shown. We apply a nonlinear elasticity regularization to allow larger and smoother deformations, and further enforce optimality constraints on the landmark points distance for better feature matching. To overcome the difficulty of minimizing the nonlinear elasticity functional due to the nonlinearity in the derivatives of the displacement vector field, we introduce a matrix variable to approximate the Jacobian matrix and solve for the simplified Euler-Lagrange equations. By comparison with image registration using linear regularization, experimental results show that the proposed nonlinear elasticity model also needs fewer numerical corrections such as regridding steps for binary image registration, it renders better ground truth, and produces larger mutual information; most importantly, the landmark points distance and L2 dissimilarity measure between the gene expression data and corresponding mouse atlas are smaller compared with the registration model with biharmonic regularization. PMID:24273381

A Synergetic Approach to Describe the Stability and Variability of Motor Behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Witte, Kersttn; Bock, Holger; Storb, Ulrich; Blaser, Peter

At the beginning of the 20th century, the Russian physiologist and biomechanist Bernstein developed his cyclograms, in which he showed in the non-repetition of the same movement under constant conditions. We can also observe this phenomenon when we analyze several cyclic sports movements. For example, we investigated the trajectories of single joints and segments of the body in breaststroke, walking, and running. The problem of the stability and variability of movement, and the relation between the two, cannot be satisfactorily tackled by means of linear methods. Thus, several authors (Turvey, 1977; Kugler et al., 1980; Haken et al., 1985; Schöner et al., 1986; Mitra et al., 1997; Kay et al., 1991; Ganz et al., 1996; Schöllhorn, 1999) use nonlinear models to describe human movement. These models and approaches have shown that nonlinear theories of complex systems provide a new understanding of the stability and variability of motor control. The purpose of this chapter is a presentation of a common synergetic model of motor behavior and its application to foot tapping, walking, and running.

Big Data Toolsets to Pharmacometrics: Application of Machine Learning for Time-to-Event Analysis.

PubMed

Gong, Xiajing; Hu, Meng; Zhao, Liang

2018-05-01

Additional value can be potentially created by applying big data tools to address pharmacometric problems. The performances of machine learning (ML) methods and the Cox regression model were evaluated based on simulated time-to-event data synthesized under various preset scenarios, i.e., with linear vs. nonlinear and dependent vs. independent predictors in the proportional hazard function, or with high-dimensional data featured by a large number of predictor variables. Our results showed that ML-based methods outperformed the Cox model in prediction performance as assessed by concordance index and in identifying the preset influential variables for high-dimensional data. The prediction performances of ML-based methods are also less sensitive to data size and censoring rates than the Cox regression model. In conclusion, ML-based methods provide a powerful tool for time-to-event analysis, with a built-in capacity for high-dimensional data and better performance when the predictor variables assume nonlinear relationships in the hazard function. © 2018 The Authors. Clinical and Translational Science published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

Compatible Models of Carbon Content of Individual Trees on a Cunninghamia lanceolata Plantation in Fujian Province, China

PubMed Central

Zhuo, Lin; Tao, Hong; Wei, Hong; Chengzhen, Wu

2016-01-01

We tried to establish compatible carbon content models of individual trees for a Chinese fir (Cunninghamia lanceolata (Lamb.) Hook.) plantation from Fujian province in southeast China. In general, compatibility requires that the sum of components equal the whole tree, meaning that the sum of percentages calculated from component equations should equal 100%. Thus, we used multiple approaches to simulate carbon content in boles, branches, foliage leaves, roots and the whole individual trees. The approaches included (i) single optimal fitting (SOF), (ii) nonlinear adjustment in proportion (NAP) and (iii) nonlinear seemingly unrelated regression (NSUR). These approaches were used in combination with variables relating diameter at breast height (D) and tree height (H), such as D, D2H, DH and D&H (where D&H means two separate variables in bivariate model). Power, exponential and polynomial functions were tested as well as a new general function model was proposed by this study. Weighted least squares regression models were employed to eliminate heteroscedasticity. Model performances were evaluated by using mean residuals, residual variance, mean square error and the determination coefficient. The results indicated that models with two dimensional variables (DH, D2H and D&H) were always superior to those with a single variable (D). The D&H variable combination was found to be the most useful predictor. Of all the approaches, SOF could establish a single optimal model separately, but there were deviations in estimating results due to existing incompatibilities, while NAP and NSUR could ensure predictions compatibility. Simultaneously, we found that the new general model had better accuracy than others. In conclusion, we recommend that the new general model be used to estimate carbon content for Chinese fir and considered for other vegetation types as well. PMID:26982054

Equilibrium control of nonlinear verticum-type systems, applied to integrated pest control.

PubMed

Molnár, S; Gámez, M; López, I; Cabello, T

2013-08-01

Linear verticum-type control and observation systems have been introduced for modelling certain industrial systems, consisting of subsystems, vertically connected by certain state variables. Recently the concept of verticum-type observation systems and the corresponding observability condition have been extended by the authors to the nonlinear case. In the present paper the general concept of a nonlinear verticum-type control system is introduced, and a sufficient condition for local controllability to equilibrium is obtained. In addition to a usual linearization, the basic idea is a decomposition of the control of the whole system into the control of the subsystems. Starting from the integrated pest control model of Rafikov and Limeira (2012) and Rafikov et al. (2012), a nonlinear verticum-type model has been set up an equilibrium control is obtained. Furthermore, a corresponding bioeconomical problem is solved minimizing the total cost of integrated pest control (combining chemical control with a biological one). Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Finding Bayesian Optimal Designs for Nonlinear Models: A Semidefinite Programming-Based Approach.

PubMed

Duarte, Belmiro P M; Wong, Weng Kee

2015-08-01

This paper uses semidefinite programming (SDP) to construct Bayesian optimal design for nonlinear regression models. The setup here extends the formulation of the optimal designs problem as an SDP problem from linear to nonlinear models. Gaussian quadrature formulas (GQF) are used to compute the expectation in the Bayesian design criterion, such as D-, A- or E-optimality. As an illustrative example, we demonstrate the approach using the power-logistic model and compare results in the literature. Additionally, we investigate how the optimal design is impacted by different discretising schemes for the design space, different amounts of uncertainty in the parameter values, different choices of GQF and different prior distributions for the vector of model parameters, including normal priors with and without correlated components. Further applications to find Bayesian D-optimal designs with two regressors for a logistic model and a two-variable generalised linear model with a gamma distributed response are discussed, and some limitations of our approach are noted.

Finding Bayesian Optimal Designs for Nonlinear Models: A Semidefinite Programming-Based Approach

PubMed Central

Duarte, Belmiro P. M.; Wong, Weng Kee

2014-01-01

Summary This paper uses semidefinite programming (SDP) to construct Bayesian optimal design for nonlinear regression models. The setup here extends the formulation of the optimal designs problem as an SDP problem from linear to nonlinear models. Gaussian quadrature formulas (GQF) are used to compute the expectation in the Bayesian design criterion, such as D-, A- or E-optimality. As an illustrative example, we demonstrate the approach using the power-logistic model and compare results in the literature. Additionally, we investigate how the optimal design is impacted by different discretising schemes for the design space, different amounts of uncertainty in the parameter values, different choices of GQF and different prior distributions for the vector of model parameters, including normal priors with and without correlated components. Further applications to find Bayesian D-optimal designs with two regressors for a logistic model and a two-variable generalised linear model with a gamma distributed response are discussed, and some limitations of our approach are noted. PMID:26512159

Differential flatness properties and multivariable adaptive control of ovarian system dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rigatos, Gerasimos

2016-12-01

The ovarian system exhibits nonlinear dynamics which is modeled by a set of coupled nonlinear differential equations. The paper proposes adaptive fuzzy control based on differential flatness theory for the complex dynamics of the ovarian system. It is proven that the dynamic model of the ovarian system, having as state variables the LH and the FSH hormones and their derivatives, is a differentially flat one. This means that all its state variables and its control inputs can be described as differential functions of the flat output. By exploiting differential flatness properties the system's dynamic model is written in the multivariable linear canonical (Brunovsky) form, for which the design of a state feedback controller becomes possible. After this transformation, the new control inputs of the system contain unknown nonlinear parts, which are identified with the use of neurofuzzy approximators. The learning procedure for these estimators is determined by the requirement the first derivative of the closed-loop's Lyapunov function to be a negative one. Moreover, Lyapunov stability analysis shows that H-infinity tracking performance is succeeded for the feedback control loop and this assures improved robustness to the aforementioned model uncertainty as well as to external perturbations. The efficiency of the proposed adaptive fuzzy control scheme is confirmed through simulation experiments.

Robustness of predator-prey models for confinement regime transitions in fusion plasmas

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhu, H.; Chapman, S. C.; Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Tromso

2013-04-15

Energy transport and confinement in tokamak fusion plasmas is usually determined by the coupled nonlinear interactions of small-scale drift turbulence and larger scale coherent nonlinear structures, such as zonal flows, together with free energy sources such as temperature gradients. Zero-dimensional models, designed to embody plausible physical narratives for these interactions, can help to identify the origin of enhanced energy confinement and of transitions between confinement regimes. A prime zero-dimensional paradigm is predator-prey or Lotka-Volterra. Here, we extend a successful three-variable (temperature gradient; microturbulence level; one class of coherent structure) model in this genre [M. A. Malkov and P. H. Diamond,more » Phys. Plasmas 16, 012504 (2009)], by adding a fourth variable representing a second class of coherent structure. This requires a fourth coupled nonlinear ordinary differential equation. We investigate the degree of invariance of the phenomenology generated by the model of Malkov and Diamond, given this additional physics. We study and compare the long-time behaviour of the three-equation and four-equation systems, their evolution towards the final state, and their attractive fixed points and limit cycles. We explore the sensitivity of paths to attractors. It is found that, for example, an attractive fixed point of the three-equation system can become a limit cycle of the four-equation system. Addressing these questions which we together refer to as 'robustness' for convenience is particularly important for models which, as here, generate sharp transitions in the values of system variables which may replicate some key features of confinement transitions. Our results help to establish the robustness of the zero-dimensional model approach to capturing observed confinement phenomenology in tokamak fusion plasmas.« less

Mechanical-magnetic-electric coupled behaviors for stress-driven Terfenol-D energy harvester

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Shuying; Zheng, Jiaju; Wang, Bowen; Pan, Ruzheng; Zhao, Ran; Weng, Ling; Sun, Ying; Liu, Chengcheng

2017-05-01

The stress-driven Terfernol-D energy harvester exhibits the nonlinear mechanical-magnetic-electric coupled (MMEC) behaviors and the eddy current effects. To analyze and design the device, it is necessary to establish an accurate model of the device. Based on the effective magnetic field expression, the constitutive equations with eddy currents and variable coefficients, and the dynamic equations, a nonlinear dynamic MMEC model for the device is founded. Comparisons between the measured and calculated results show that the model can describe the nonlinear coupled curves of magnetization versus stress and strain versus stress under different bias fields, and can provide the reasonable data trends of piezomagnetic coefficients, Young's modulus and relative permeability for Terfenol-D. Moreover, the calculated power results show that the model can determine the optimal bias conditions, optimal resistance, suitable proof mass, suitable slices for the maximum energy extraction of the device under broad stress amplitude and broad frequency.

Geographical variation of cerebrovascular disease in New York State: the correlation with income

PubMed Central

Han, Daikwon; Carrow, Shannon S; Rogerson, Peter A; Munschauer, Frederick E

2005-01-01

Background Income is known to be associated with cerebrovascular disease; however, little is known about the more detailed relationship between cerebrovascular disease and income. We examined the hypothesis that the geographical distribution of cerebrovascular disease in New York State may be predicted by a nonlinear model using income as a surrogate socioeconomic risk factor. Results We used spatial clustering methods to identify areas with high and low prevalence of cerebrovascular disease at the ZIP code level after smoothing rates and correcting for edge effects; geographic locations of high and low clusters of cerebrovascular disease in New York State were identified with and without income adjustment. To examine effects of income, we calculated the excess number of cases using a non-linear regression with cerebrovascular disease rates taken as the dependent variable and income and income squared taken as independent variables. The resulting regression equation was: excess rate = 32.075 - 1.22*10-4(income) + 8.068*10-10(income2), and both income and income squared variables were significant at the 0.01 level. When income was included as a covariate in the non-linear regression, the number and size of clusters of high cerebrovascular disease prevalence decreased. Some 87 ZIP codes exceeded the critical value of the local statistic yielding a relative risk of 1.2. The majority of low cerebrovascular disease prevalence geographic clusters disappeared when the non-linear income effect was included. For linear regression, the excess rate of cerebrovascular disease falls with income; each $10,000 increase in median income of each ZIP code resulted in an average reduction of 3.83 observed cases. The significant nonlinear effect indicates a lessening of this income effect with increasing income. Conclusion Income is a non-linear predictor of excess cerebrovascular disease rates, with both low and high observed cerebrovascular disease rate areas associated with higher income. Income alone explains a significant amount of the geographical variance in cerebrovascular disease across New York State since both high and low clusters of cerebrovascular disease dissipate or disappear with income adjustment. Geographical modeling, including non-linear effects of income, may allow for better identification of other non-traditional risk factors. PMID:16242043

The development and validation of a numerical integration method for non-linear viscoelastic modeling

PubMed Central

Ramo, Nicole L.; Puttlitz, Christian M.

2018-01-01

Compelling evidence that many biological soft tissues display both strain- and time-dependent behavior has led to the development of fully non-linear viscoelastic modeling techniques to represent the tissue’s mechanical response under dynamic conditions. Since the current stress state of a viscoelastic material is dependent on all previous loading events, numerical analyses are complicated by the requirement of computing and storing the stress at each step throughout the load history. This requirement quickly becomes computationally expensive, and in some cases intractable, for finite element models. Therefore, we have developed a strain-dependent numerical integration approach for capturing non-linear viscoelasticity that enables calculation of the current stress from a strain-dependent history state variable stored from the preceding time step only, which improves both fitting efficiency and computational tractability. This methodology was validated based on its ability to recover non-linear viscoelastic coefficients from simulated stress-relaxation (six strain levels) and dynamic cyclic (three frequencies) experimental stress-strain data. The model successfully fit each data set with average errors in recovered coefficients of 0.3% for stress-relaxation fits and 0.1% for cyclic. The results support the use of the presented methodology to develop linear or non-linear viscoelastic models from stress-relaxation or cyclic experimental data of biological soft tissues. PMID:29293558

Predicting Ecologically Important Vegetation Variables from Remotely Sensed Optical/Radar Data Using Neural Networks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kimes, Daniel S.; Nelson, Ross F.

1998-01-01

A number of satellite sensor systems will collect large data sets of the Earth's surface during NASA's Earth Observing System (EOS) era. Efforts are being made to develop efficient algorithms that can incorporate a wide variety of spectral data and ancillary data in order to extract vegetation variables required for global and regional studies of ecosystem processes, biosphere-atmosphere interactions, and carbon dynamics. These variables are, for the most part, continuous (e.g. biomass, leaf area index, fraction of vegetation cover, vegetation height, vegetation age, spectral albedo, absorbed photosynthetic active radiation, photosynthetic efficiency, etc.) and estimates may be made using remotely sensed data (e.g. nadir and directional optical wavelengths, multifrequency radar backscatter) and any other readily available ancillary data (e.g., topography, sun angle, ground data, etc.). Using these types of data, neural networks can: 1) provide accurate initial models for extracting vegetation variables when an adequate amount of data is available; 2) provide a performance standard for evaluating existing physically-based models; 3) invert multivariate, physically based models; 4) in a variable selection process, identify those independent variables which best infer the vegetation variable(s) of interest; and 5) incorporate new data sources that would be difficult or impossible to use with conventional techniques. In addition, neural networks employ a more powerful and adaptive nonlinear equation form as compared to traditional linear, index transformations, and simple nonlinear analyses. These neural networks attributes are discussed in the context of the authors' investigations of extracting vegetation variables of ecological interest.

Nonlinear Estimation of Discrete-Time Signals Under Random Observation Delay

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Caballero-Aguila, R.; Jimenez-Lopez, J. D.; Hermoso-Carazo, A.

2008-11-06

This paper presents an approximation to the nonlinear least-squares estimation problem of discrete-time stochastic signals using nonlinear observations with additive white noise which can be randomly delayed by one sampling time. The observation delay is modelled by a sequence of independent Bernoulli random variables whose values, zero or one, indicate that the real observation arrives on time or it is delayed and, hence, the available measurement to estimate the signal is not up-to-date. Assuming that the state-space model generating the signal is unknown and only the covariance functions of the processes involved in the observation equation are ready for use,more » a filtering algorithm based on linear approximations of the real observations is proposed.« less

Data-Driven Nonlinear Subspace Modeling for Prediction and Control of Molten Iron Quality Indices in Blast Furnace Ironmaking

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhou, Ping; Song, Heda; Wang, Hong

Blast furnace (BF) in ironmaking is a nonlinear dynamic process with complicated physical-chemical reactions, where multi-phase and multi-field coupling and large time delay occur during its operation. In BF operation, the molten iron temperature (MIT) as well as Si, P and S contents of molten iron are the most essential molten iron quality (MIQ) indices, whose measurement, modeling and control have always been important issues in metallurgic engineering and automation field. This paper develops a novel data-driven nonlinear state space modeling for the prediction and control of multivariate MIQ indices by integrating hybrid modeling and control techniques. First, to improvemore » modeling efficiency, a data-driven hybrid method combining canonical correlation analysis and correlation analysis is proposed to identify the most influential controllable variables as the modeling inputs from multitudinous factors would affect the MIQ indices. Then, a Hammerstein model for the prediction of MIQ indices is established using the LS-SVM based nonlinear subspace identification method. Such a model is further simplified by using piecewise cubic Hermite interpolating polynomial method to fit the complex nonlinear kernel function. Compared to the original Hammerstein model, this simplified model can not only significantly reduce the computational complexity, but also has almost the same reliability and accuracy for a stable prediction of MIQ indices. Last, in order to verify the practicability of the developed model, it is applied in designing a genetic algorithm based nonlinear predictive controller for multivariate MIQ indices by directly taking the established model as a predictor. Industrial experiments show the advantages and effectiveness of the proposed approach.« less

Prediction of municipal solid waste generation using nonlinear autoregressive network.

PubMed

Younes, Mohammad K; Nopiah, Z M; Basri, N E Ahmad; Basri, H; Abushammala, Mohammed F M; Maulud, K N A

2015-12-01

Most of the developing countries have solid waste management problems. Solid waste strategic planning requires accurate prediction of the quality and quantity of the generated waste. In developing countries, such as Malaysia, the solid waste generation rate is increasing rapidly, due to population growth and new consumption trends that characterize society. This paper proposes an artificial neural network (ANN) approach using feedforward nonlinear autoregressive network with exogenous inputs (NARX) to predict annual solid waste generation in relation to demographic and economic variables like population number, gross domestic product, electricity demand per capita and employment and unemployment numbers. In addition, variable selection procedures are also developed to select a significant explanatory variable. The model evaluation was performed using coefficient of determination (R(2)) and mean square error (MSE). The optimum model that produced the lowest testing MSE (2.46) and the highest R(2) (0.97) had three inputs (gross domestic product, population and employment), eight neurons and one lag in the hidden layer, and used Fletcher-Powell's conjugate gradient as the training algorithm.

Quasi-Static Viscoelastic Finite Element Model of an Aircraft Tire

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Arthur R.; Tanner, John A.; Mason, Angela J.

1999-01-01

An elastic large displacement thick-shell mixed finite element is modified to allow for the calculation of viscoelastic stresses. Internal strain variables are introduced at the element's stress nodes and are employed to construct a viscous material model. First order ordinary differential equations relate the internal strain variables to the corresponding elastic strains at the stress nodes. The viscous stresses are computed from the internal strain variables using viscous moduli which are a fraction of the elastic moduli. The energy dissipated by the action of the viscous stresses is included in the mixed variational functional. The nonlinear quasi-static viscous equilibrium equations are then obtained. Previously developed Taylor expansions of the nonlinear elastic equilibrium equations are modified to include the viscous terms. A predictor-corrector time marching solution algorithm is employed to solve the algebraic-differential equations. The viscous shell element is employed to computationally simulate a stair-step loading and unloading of an aircraft tire in contact with a frictionless surface.

New preconditioning strategy for Jacobian-free solvers for variably saturated flows with Richards’ equation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lipnikov, Konstantin; Moulton, David; Svyatskiy, Daniil

2016-04-29

We develop a new approach for solving the nonlinear Richards’ equation arising in variably saturated flow modeling. The growing complexity of geometric models for simulation of subsurface flows leads to the necessity of using unstructured meshes and advanced discretization methods. Typically, a numerical solution is obtained by first discretizing PDEs and then solving the resulting system of nonlinear discrete equations with a Newton-Raphson-type method. Efficiency and robustness of the existing solvers rely on many factors, including an empiric quality control of intermediate iterates, complexity of the employed discretization method and a customized preconditioner. We propose and analyze a new preconditioningmore » strategy that is based on a stable discretization of the continuum Jacobian. We will show with numerical experiments for challenging problems in subsurface hydrology that this new preconditioner improves convergence of the existing Jacobian-free solvers 3-20 times. Furthermore, we show that the Picard method with this preconditioner becomes a more efficient nonlinear solver than a few widely used Jacobian-free solvers.« less

SOS based robust H(∞) fuzzy dynamic output feedback control of nonlinear networked control systems.

PubMed

Chae, Seunghwan; Nguang, Sing Kiong

2014-07-01

In this paper, a methodology for designing a fuzzy dynamic output feedback controller for discrete-time nonlinear networked control systems is presented where the nonlinear plant is modelled by a Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy model and the network-induced delays by a finite state Markov process. The transition probability matrix for the Markov process is allowed to be partially known, providing a more practical consideration of the real world. Furthermore, the fuzzy controller's membership functions and premise variables are not assumed to be the same as the plant's membership functions and premise variables, that is, the proposed approach can handle the case, when the premise of the plant are not measurable or delayed. The membership functions of the plant and the controller are approximated as polynomial functions, then incorporated into the controller design. Sufficient conditions for the existence of the controller are derived in terms of sum of square inequalities, which are then solved by YALMIP. Finally, a numerical example is used to demonstrate the validity of the proposed methodology.

Nonlinear synthesis of infrasound propagation through an inhomogeneous, absorbing atmosphere.

PubMed

de Groot-Hedlin, C D

2012-08-01

An accurate and efficient method to predict infrasound amplitudes from large explosions in the atmosphere is required for diverse source types, including bolides, volcanic eruptions, and nuclear and chemical explosions. A finite-difference, time-domain approach is developed to solve a set of nonlinear fluid dynamic equations for total pressure, temperature, and density fields rather than acoustic perturbations. Three key features for the purpose of synthesizing nonlinear infrasound propagation in realistic media are that it includes gravitational terms, it allows for acoustic absorption, including molecular vibration losses at frequencies well below the molecular vibration frequencies, and the environmental models are constrained to have axial symmetry, allowing a three-dimensional simulation to be reduced to two dimensions. Numerical experiments are performed to assess the algorithm's accuracy and the effect of source amplitudes and atmospheric variability on infrasound waveforms and shock formation. Results show that infrasound waveforms steepen and their associated spectra are shifted to higher frequencies for nonlinear sources, leading to enhanced infrasound attenuation. Results also indicate that nonlinear infrasound amplitudes depend strongly on atmospheric temperature and pressure variations. The solution for total field variables and insertion of gravitational terms also allows for the computation of other disturbances generated by explosions, including gravity waves.

A Nonlinear Multigrid Solver for an Atmospheric General Circulation Model Based on Semi-Implicit Semi-Lagrangian Advection of Potential Vorticity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McCormick, S.; Ruge, John W.

1998-01-01

This work represents a part of a project to develop an atmospheric general circulation model based on the semi-Lagrangian advection of potential vorticity (PC) with divergence as the companion prognostic variable.

State-variable analysis of non-linear circuits with a desk computer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cohen, E.

1981-01-01

State variable analysis was used to analyze the transient performance of non-linear circuits on a desk top computer. The non-linearities considered were not restricted to any circuit element. All that is required for analysis is the relationship defining each non-linearity be known in terms of points on a curve.

Green-Naghdi dynamics of surface wind waves in finite depth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manna, M. A.; Latifi, A.; Kraenkel, R. A.

2018-04-01

The Miles’ quasi laminar theory of waves generation by wind in finite depth h is presented. In this context, the fully nonlinear Green-Naghdi model equation is derived for the first time. This model equation is obtained by the non perturbative Green-Naghdi approach, coupling a nonlinear evolution of water waves with the atmospheric dynamics which works as in the classic Miles’ theory. A depth-dependent and wind-dependent wave growth γ is drawn from the dispersion relation of the coupled Green-Naghdi model with the atmospheric dynamics. Different values of the dimensionless water depth parameter δ = gh/U 1, with g the gravity and U 1 a characteristic wind velocity, produce two families of growth rate γ in function of the dimensionless theoretical wave-age c 0: a family of γ with h constant and U 1 variable and another family of γ with U 1 constant and h variable. The allowed minimum and maximum values of γ in this model are exhibited.

A novel framework to simulating non-stationary, non-linear, non-Normal hydrological time series using Markov Switching Autoregressive Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Birkel, C.; Paroli, R.; Spezia, L.; Tetzlaff, D.; Soulsby, C.

2012-12-01

In this paper we present a novel model framework using the class of Markov Switching Autoregressive Models (MSARMs) to examine catchments as complex stochastic systems that exhibit non-stationary, non-linear and non-Normal rainfall-runoff and solute dynamics. Hereby, MSARMs are pairs of stochastic processes, one observed and one unobserved, or hidden. We model the unobserved process as a finite state Markov chain and assume that the observed process, given the hidden Markov chain, is conditionally autoregressive, which means that the current observation depends on its recent past (system memory). The model is fully embedded in a Bayesian analysis based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms for model selection and uncertainty assessment. Hereby, the autoregressive order and the dimension of the hidden Markov chain state-space are essentially self-selected. The hidden states of the Markov chain represent unobserved levels of variability in the observed process that may result from complex interactions of hydroclimatic variability on the one hand and catchment characteristics affecting water and solute storage on the other. To deal with non-stationarity, additional meteorological and hydrological time series along with a periodic component can be included in the MSARMs as covariates. This extension allows identification of potential underlying drivers of temporal rainfall-runoff and solute dynamics. We applied the MSAR model framework to streamflow and conservative tracer (deuterium and oxygen-18) time series from an intensively monitored 2.3 km2 experimental catchment in eastern Scotland. Statistical time series analysis, in the form of MSARMs, suggested that the streamflow and isotope tracer time series are not controlled by simple linear rules. MSARMs showed that the dependence of current observations on past inputs observed by transport models often in form of the long-tailing of travel time and residence time distributions can be efficiently explained by non-stationarity either of the system input (climatic variability) and/or the complexity of catchment storage characteristics. The statistical model is also capable of reproducing short (event) and longer-term (inter-event) and wet and dry dynamical "hydrological states". These reflect the non-linear transport mechanisms of flow pathways induced by transient climatic and hydrological variables and modified by catchment characteristics. We conclude that MSARMs are a powerful tool to analyze the temporal dynamics of hydrological data, allowing for explicit integration of non-stationary, non-linear and non-Normal characteristics.

Ecosystem response to climatic variables - air temperature and precipitation: How can these variables alter plant productions in C4-grass dominant ecosystem?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jung, C. G.; Jiang, L.; Luo, Y.

2017-12-01

Understanding net primary production (NPP) response to the key climatic variables, temperature and precipitation, is essential since the response could be represented by one of future consequences from ecosystem responses. Under future climatic warming, fluctuating precipitation is expected. In addition, NPP solely could not explain whole ecosystem response; therefore, not only NPP, but also above- and below-ground NPP (ANPP and BNPP, respectively) need to be examined. This examination needs to include how the plant productions response along temperature and precipitation gradients. Several studies have examined the response of NPP against each of single climatic variable, but understanding the response of ANPP and BNPP to the multiple variables is notably poor. In this study, we used the plant productions data (NPP, ANPP, and BNPP) with climatic variables, i.e., air temperature and precipitation, from 1999 to 2015 under warming and clipping treatments (mimicking hay-harvesting) in C4-grass dominant ecosystem located in central Oklahoma, United States. Firstly, we examined the nonlinear relationships with the climatic variables for NPP, ANPP and BNPP; and then predicted possible responses in the temperature - precipitation space by using a linear mixed effect model. Nonlinearities of NPP, ANPP and BNPP to the climatic variables have been found to show unimodal curves, and nonlinear models have better goodness of fit as shown lower Akaike information criterion (AIC) than linear models. Optimum condition for NPP is represented at high temperature and precipitation level whereas BNPP is maximized at moderate precipitation levels while ANPP has same range of NPP's optimum condition. Clipping significantly reduced ANPP while there was no clipping effect on NPP and BNPP. Furthermore, inclining NPP and ANPP have shown in a range from moderate to high precipitation level with increasing temperature while inclining pattern for BNPP was observed in moderate precipitation level. Overall, the C4-grass dominant ecosystem has a potential for considerable increases in NPP in hotter and wetter conditions as shown a range from moderate to high temperature and precipitation levels; ANPP has peaked at the high temperature and precipitation level, but maximum BNPP needs moderate precipitation level and high temperature.

A Generic Nonlinear Aerodynamic Model for Aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grauer, Jared A.; Morelli, Eugene A.

2014-01-01

A generic model of the aerodynamic coefficients was developed using wind tunnel databases for eight different aircraft and multivariate orthogonal functions. For each database and each coefficient, models were determined using polynomials expanded about the state and control variables, and an othgonalization procedure. A predicted squared-error criterion was used to automatically select the model terms. Modeling terms picked in at least half of the analyses, which totalled 45 terms, were retained to form the generic nonlinear aerodynamic (GNA) model. Least squares was then used to estimate the model parameters and associated uncertainty that best fit the GNA model to each database. Nonlinear flight simulations were used to demonstrate that the GNA model produces accurate trim solutions, local behavior (modal frequencies and damping ratios), and global dynamic behavior (91% accurate state histories and 80% accurate aerodynamic coefficient histories) under large-amplitude excitation. This compact aerodynamics model can be used to decrease on-board memory storage requirements, quickly change conceptual aircraft models, provide smooth analytical functions for control and optimization applications, and facilitate real-time parametric system identification.

Regression modeling of ground-water flow

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cooley, R.L.; Naff, R.L.

1985-01-01

Nonlinear multiple regression methods are developed to model and analyze groundwater flow systems. Complete descriptions of regression methodology as applied to groundwater flow models allow scientists and engineers engaged in flow modeling to apply the methods to a wide range of problems. Organization of the text proceeds from an introduction that discusses the general topic of groundwater flow modeling, to a review of basic statistics necessary to properly apply regression techniques, and then to the main topic: exposition and use of linear and nonlinear regression to model groundwater flow. Statistical procedures are given to analyze and use the regression models. A number of exercises and answers are included to exercise the student on nearly all the methods that are presented for modeling and statistical analysis. Three computer programs implement the more complex methods. These three are a general two-dimensional, steady-state regression model for flow in an anisotropic, heterogeneous porous medium, a program to calculate a measure of model nonlinearity with respect to the regression parameters, and a program to analyze model errors in computed dependent variables such as hydraulic head. (USGS)

Spatiotemporal estimation of historical PM2.5 concentrations using PM10, meteorological variables, and spatial effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Lianfa; Wu, Anna H.; Cheng, Iona; Chen, Jiu-Chiuan; Wu, Jun

2017-10-01

Monitoring of fine particulate matter with diameter <2.5 μm (PM2.5) started from 1999 in the US and even later in many other countries. The lack of historical PM2.5 data limits epidemiological studies of long-term exposure of PM2.5 and health outcomes such as cancer. In this study, we aimed to design a flexible approach to reliably estimate historical PM2.5 concentrations by incorporating spatial effect and the measurements of existing co-pollutants such as particulate matter with diameter <10 μm (PM10) and meteorological variables. Monitoring data of PM10, PM2.5, and meteorological variables covering the entire state of California were obtained from 1999 through 2013. We developed a spatiotemporal model that quantified non-linear associations between PM2.5 concentrations and the following predictor variables: spatiotemporal factors (PM10 and meteorological variables), spatial factors (land-use patterns, traffic, elevation, distance to shorelines, and spatial autocorrelation), and season. Our model accounted for regional-(county) scale spatial autocorrelation, using spatial weight matrix, and local-scale spatiotemporal variability, using local covariates in additive non-linear model. The spatiotemporal model was evaluated, using leaving-one-site-month-out cross validation. Our final daily model had an R2 of 0.81, with PM10, meteorological variables, and spatial autocorrelation, explaining 55%, 10%, and 10% of the variance in PM2.5 concentrations, respectively. The model had a cross-validation R2 of 0.83 for monthly PM2.5 concentrations (N = 8170) and 0.79 for daily PM2.5 concentrations (N = 51,421) with few extreme values in prediction. Further, the incorporation of spatial effects reduced bias in predictions. Our approach achieved a cross validation R2 of 0.61 for the daily model when PM10 was replaced by total suspended particulate. Our model can robustly estimate historical PM2.5 concentrations in California when PM2.5 measurements were not available.

A Maximum Likelihood Approach for Multisample Nonlinear Structural Equation Models with Missing Continuous and Dichotomous Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Song, Xin-Yuan; Lee, Sik-Yum

2006-01-01

Structural equation models are widely appreciated in social-psychological research and other behavioral research to model relations between latent constructs and manifest variables and to control for measurement error. Most applications of SEMs are based on fully observed continuous normal data and models with a linear structural equation.…

Modeling non-linear growth responses to temperature and hydrology in wetland trees

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keim, R.; Allen, S. T.

2016-12-01

Growth responses of wetland trees to flooding and climate variations are difficult to model because they depend on multiple, apparently interacting factors, but are a critical link in hydrological control of wetland carbon budgets. To more generally understand tree growth to hydrological forcing, we modeled non-linear responses of tree ring growth to flooding and climate at sub-annual time steps, using Vaganov-Shashkin response functions. We calibrated the model to six baldcypress tree-ring chronologies from two hydrologically distinct sites in southern Louisiana, and tested several hypotheses of plasticity in wetlands tree responses to interacting environmental variables. The model outperformed traditional multiple linear regression. More importantly, optimized response parameters were generally similar among sites with varying hydrological conditions, suggesting generality to the functions. Model forms that included interacting responses to multiple forcing factors were more effective than were single response functions, indicating the principle of a single limiting factor is not correct in wetlands and both climatic and hydrological variables must be considered in predicting responses to hydrological or climate change.

Numerical optimization of Ignition and Growth reactive flow modeling for PAX2A

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, E. L.; Schimel, B.; Grantham, W. J.

1996-05-01

Variable metric nonlinear optimization has been successfully applied to the parameterization of unreacted and reacted products thermodynamic equations of state and reactive flow modeling of the HMX based high explosive PAX2A. The NLQPEB nonlinear optimization program has been recently coupled to the LLNL developed two-dimensional high rate continuum modeling programs DYNA2D and CALE. The resulting program has the ability to optimize initial modeling parameters. This new optimization capability was used to optimally parameterize the Ignition and Growth reactive flow model to experimental manganin gauge records. The optimization varied the Ignition and Growth reaction rate model parameters in order to minimize the difference between the calculated pressure histories and the experimental pressure histories.

On the relationship between the classical Dicke-Jaynes-Cummings-Gaudin model and the nonlinear Schroedinger equation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Du, Dianlou; Geng, Xue

2013-05-15

In this paper, the relationship between the classical Dicke-Jaynes-Cummings-Gaudin (DJCG) model and the nonlinear Schroedinger (NLS) equation is studied. It is shown that the classical DJCG model is equivalent to a stationary NLS equation. Moreover, the standard NLS equation can be solved by the classical DJCG model and a suitably chosen higher order flow. Further, it is also shown that classical DJCG model can be transformed into the classical Gaudin spin model in an external magnetic field through a deformation of Lax matrix. Finally, the separated variables are constructed on the common level sets of Casimir functions and the generalizedmore » action-angle coordinates are introduced via the Hamilton-Jacobi equation.« less

Ultra-fast dynamics in the nonlinear optical response of silver nanoprism ordered arrays.

PubMed

Sánchez-Esquivel, Héctor; Raygoza-Sanchez, Karen Y; Rangel-Rojo, Raúl; Kalinic, Boris; Michieli, Niccolò; Cesca, Tiziana; Mattei, Giovanni

2018-03-15

In this work we present the study of the ultra-fast dynamics of the nonlinear optical response of a honeycomb array of silver triangular nanoprisms, performed using a femtosecond pulsed laser tuned with the dipolar surface plasmon resonance of the nanoarray. Nonlinear absorption and refraction, and their time-dependence, were explored using the z-scan and time-resolved excite-probe techniques. Nonlinear absorption is shown to change sign with the input irradiance and the behavior was explained on the basis of a three-level model. The response time was determined to be in the picosecond regime. A technique based on a variable frequency chopper was also used in order to discriminate the thermal and electronic contributions to the nonlinearity, which were found to have opposite signs. All these findings propel the investigated nanoprism arrays as good candidates for applications in advanced ultra-fast nonlinear nanophotonic devices.

A hybrid machine learning model to estimate nitrate contamination of production zone groundwater in the Central Valley, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ransom, K.; Nolan, B. T.; Faunt, C. C.; Bell, A.; Gronberg, J.; Traum, J.; Wheeler, D. C.; Rosecrans, C.; Belitz, K.; Eberts, S.; Harter, T.

2016-12-01

A hybrid, non-linear, machine learning statistical model was developed within a statistical learning framework to predict nitrate contamination of groundwater to depths of approximately 500 m below ground surface in the Central Valley, California. A database of 213 predictor variables representing well characteristics, historical and current field and county scale nitrogen mass balance, historical and current landuse, oxidation/reduction conditions, groundwater flow, climate, soil characteristics, depth to groundwater, and groundwater age were assigned to over 6,000 private supply and public supply wells measured previously for nitrate and located throughout the study area. The machine learning method, gradient boosting machine (GBM) was used to screen predictor variables and rank them in order of importance in relation to the groundwater nitrate measurements. The top five most important predictor variables included oxidation/reduction characteristics, historical field scale nitrogen mass balance, climate, and depth to 60 year old water. Twenty-two variables were selected for the final model and final model errors for log-transformed hold-out data were R squared of 0.45 and root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.124. Modeled mean groundwater age was tested separately for error improvement in the model and when included decreased model RMSE by 0.5% compared to the same model without age and by 0.20% compared to the model with all 213 variables. 1D and 2D partial plots were examined to determine how variables behave individually and interact in the model. Some variables behaved as expected: log nitrate decreased with increasing probability of anoxic conditions and depth to 60 year old water, generally decreased with increasing natural landuse surrounding wells and increasing mean groundwater age, generally increased with increased minimum depth to high water table and with increased base flow index value. Other variables exhibited much more erratic or noisy behavior in the model making them more difficult to interpret but highlighting the usefulness of the non-linear machine learning method. 2D interaction plots show probability of anoxic groundwater conditions largely control estimated nitrate concentrations compared to the other predictors.

On a model for the Navier-Stokes equations using magnetization variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pooley, Benjamin C.

2018-04-01

It is known that in a classical setting, the Navier-Stokes equations can be reformulated in terms of so-called magnetization variables w that satisfy Our main focus is the proof of global well-posedness in H 1 / 2 for a new variant of (1), where Pw is replaced by w in the second nonlinear term:

Nonlinear system controller design based on domain of attaction: An application to CELSS analysis and control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Babcock, P. S., IV

1986-01-01

Nonlinear system controller design based on the domain of attraction is presented. This is particularly suited to investigating Closed Ecological Life Support Systems (CELSS) models. In particular, the dynamic consequences of changes in the waste storage capacity and system mass, and how information is used for control in CELSS models are examined. The models' high dimensionality and nonlinear state equations make them difficult to analyze by any other technique. The domain of attraction is the region in initial conditions that tend toward an attractor and it is delineated by randomly selecting initial conditions from the region of state space being investigated. Error analysis is done by repeating the domain simulations with independent samples. A refinement of this region is the domain of performance which is the region of initial conditions meeting a performance criteria. In nonlinear systems, local stability does not insure stability over a larger region. The domain of attraction marks out this stability region; hence, it can be considered a measure of a nonlinear system's ability to recovery from state perturbations. Considering random perturbations, the minimum radius of the domain is a measure of the magnitude of perturbations for which recovery is guaranteed. Design of both linear and nonlinear controllers are shown. Three CELSS models, with 9 to 30 state variable, are presented. Measures of the domain of attraction are used to show the global behavior of these models under a variety of design and controller scenarios.

On the use of internal state variables in thermoviscoplastic constitutive equations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Allen, D. H.; Beek, J. M.

1985-01-01

The general theory of internal state variables are reviewed to apply it to inelastic metals in use in high temperature environments. In this process, certain constraints and clarifications will be made regarding internal state variables. It is shown that the Helmholtz free energy can be utilized to construct constitutive equations which are appropriate for metallic superalloys. Internal state variables are shown to represent locally averaged measures of dislocation arrangement, dislocation density, and intergranular fracture. The internal state variable model is demonstrated to be a suitable framework for comparison of several currently proposed models for metals and can therefore be used to exhibit history dependence, nonlinearity, and rate as well as temperature sensitivity.

On discrete control of nonlinear systems with applications to robotics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eslami, Mansour

1989-01-01

Much progress has been reported in the areas of modeling and control of nonlinear dynamic systems in a continuous-time framework. From implementation point of view, however, it is essential to study these nonlinear systems directly in a discrete setting that is amenable for interfacing with digital computers. But to develop discrete models and discrete controllers for a nonlinear system such as robot is a nontrivial task. Robot is also inherently a variable-inertia dynamic system involving additional complications. Not only the computer-oriented models of these systems must satisfy the usual requirements for such models, but these must also be compatible with the inherent capabilities of computers and must preserve the fundamental physical characteristics of continuous-time systems such as the conservation of energy and/or momentum. Preliminary issues regarding discrete systems in general and discrete models of a typical industrial robot that is developed with full consideration of the principle of conservation of energy are presented. Some research on the pertinent tactile information processing is reviewed. Finally, system control methods and how to integrate these issues in order to complete the task of discrete control of a robot manipulator are also reviewed.

Development and Evaluation of Models for the Relationship between Tree Height and Diameter at Breast Height for Chinese-Fir Plantations in Subtropical China.

PubMed

Li, Yan-qiong; Deng, Xiang-wen; Huang, Zhi-hong; Xiang, Wen-hua; Yan, Wen-de; Lei, Pi-feng; Zhou, Xiao-lu; Peng, Chang-hui

2015-01-01

Tree diameter at breast height (dbh) and height are the most important variables used in forest inventory and management as well as forest carbon-stock estimation. In order to identify the key stand variables that influence the tree height-dbh relationship and to develop and validate a suit of models for predicting tree height, data from 5961 tree samples aged from 6 years to 53 years and collected from 80 Chinese-fir plantation plots were used to fit 39 models, including 33 nonlinear models and 6 linear models, were developed and evaluated into two groups. The results showed that composite models performed better in height estimate than one-independent-variable models. Nonlinear composite Model 34 and linear composite Model 6 were recommended for predicting tree height in Chinese fir plantations with a dbh range between 4 cm and 40 cm when the dbh data for each tree and the quadratic mean dbh of the stand (Dq) and mean height of the stand (Hm) were available. Moreover, Hm could be estimated by using the formula Hm = 11.707 × l n(Dq)-18.032. Clearly, Dq was the primary stand variable that influenced the height-dbh relationship. The parameters of the models varied according to stand age and site. The inappropriate application of provincial or regional height-dbh models for predicting small tree height at local scale may result in larger uncertainties. The method and the recommended models developed in this study were statistically reliable for applications in growth and yield estimation for even-aged Chinese-fir plantation in Huitong and Changsha. The models could be extended to other regions and to other tree species only after verification in subtropical China.

Development and Evaluation of Models for the Relationship between Tree Height and Diameter at Breast Height for Chinese-Fir Plantations in Subtropical China

PubMed Central

Li, Yan-qiong; Deng, Xiang-wen; Huang, Zhi-hong; Xiang, Wen-hua; Yan, Wen-de; Lei, Pi-feng; Zhou, Xiao-lu; Peng, Chang-hui

2015-01-01

Tree diameter at breast height (dbh) and height are the most important variables used in forest inventory and management as well as forest carbon-stock estimation. In order to identify the key stand variables that influence the tree height-dbh relationship and to develop and validate a suit of models for predicting tree height, data from 5961 tree samples aged from 6 years to 53 years and collected from 80 Chinese-fir plantation plots were used to fit 39 models, including 33 nonlinear models and 6 linear models, were developed and evaluated into two groups. The results showed that composite models performed better in height estimate than one-independent-variable models. Nonlinear composite Model 34 and linear composite Model 6 were recommended for predicting tree height in Chinese fir plantations with a dbh range between 4 cm and 40 cm when the dbh data for each tree and the quadratic mean dbh of the stand (Dq) and mean height of the stand (Hm) were available. Moreover, Hm could be estimated by using the formula Hm=11.707×ln(Dq)-18.032. Clearly, Dq was the primary stand variable that influenced the height-dbh relationship. The parameters of the models varied according to stand age and site. The inappropriate application of provincial or regional height-dbh models for predicting small tree height at local scale may result in larger uncertainties. The method and the recommended models developed in this study were statistically reliable for applications in growth and yield estimation for even-aged Chinese-fir plantation in Huitong and Changsha. The models could be extended to other regions and to other tree species only after verification in subtropical China. PMID:25905458

A Nonlinear Mixed Effects Approach for Modeling the Cell-To-Cell Variability of Mig1 Dynamics in Yeast

PubMed Central

Almquist, Joachim; Bendrioua, Loubna; Adiels, Caroline Beck; Goksör, Mattias; Hohmann, Stefan; Jirstrand, Mats

2015-01-01

The last decade has seen a rapid development of experimental techniques that allow data collection from individual cells. These techniques have enabled the discovery and characterization of variability within a population of genetically identical cells. Nonlinear mixed effects (NLME) modeling is an established framework for studying variability between individuals in a population, frequently used in pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics, but its potential for studies of cell-to-cell variability in molecular cell biology is yet to be exploited. Here we take advantage of this novel application of NLME modeling to study cell-to-cell variability in the dynamic behavior of the yeast transcription repressor Mig1. In particular, we investigate a recently discovered phenomenon where Mig1 during a short and transient period exits the nucleus when cells experience a shift from high to intermediate levels of extracellular glucose. A phenomenological model based on ordinary differential equations describing the transient dynamics of nuclear Mig1 is introduced, and according to the NLME methodology the parameters of this model are in turn modeled by a multivariate probability distribution. Using time-lapse microscopy data from nearly 200 cells, we estimate this parameter distribution according to the approach of maximizing the population likelihood. Based on the estimated distribution, parameter values for individual cells are furthermore characterized and the resulting Mig1 dynamics are compared to the single cell times-series data. The proposed NLME framework is also compared to the intuitive but limited standard two-stage (STS) approach. We demonstrate that the latter may overestimate variabilities by up to almost five fold. Finally, Monte Carlo simulations of the inferred population model are used to predict the distribution of key characteristics of the Mig1 transient response. We find that with decreasing levels of post-shift glucose, the transient response of Mig1 tend to be faster, more extended, and displays an increased cell-to-cell variability. PMID:25893847

Nonlinear feedback guidance law for aero-assisted orbit transfer maneuvers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Menon, P. K. A.

1992-01-01

Aero-assisted orbit transfer vehicles have the potential for significantly reducing the fuel requirements in certain classes of orbit transfer operations. Development of a nonlinear feedback guidance law for performing aero-assisted maneuvers that accomplish simultaneous change of all the orbital elements with least vehicle acceleration magnitude is discussed. The analysis is based on a sixth order nonlinear point-mass vehicle model with lift, bank angle, thrust and drag modulation as the control variables. The guidance law uses detailed vehicle aerodynamic and the atmosphere models in the feedback loop. Higher-order gravitational harmonics, planetary atmosphere rotation and ambient winds are included in the formulation. Due to modest computational requirements, the guidance law is implementable on-board an orbit transfer vehicle. The guidance performance is illustrated for three sets of boundary conditions.

Analysis of complex neural circuits with nonlinear multidimensional hidden state models

PubMed Central

Friedman, Alexander; Slocum, Joshua F.; Tyulmankov, Danil; Gibb, Leif G.; Altshuler, Alex; Ruangwises, Suthee; Shi, Qinru; Toro Arana, Sebastian E.; Beck, Dirk W.; Sholes, Jacquelyn E. C.; Graybiel, Ann M.

2016-01-01

A universal need in understanding complex networks is the identification of individual information channels and their mutual interactions under different conditions. In neuroscience, our premier example, networks made up of billions of nodes dynamically interact to bring about thought and action. Granger causality is a powerful tool for identifying linear interactions, but handling nonlinear interactions remains an unmet challenge. We present a nonlinear multidimensional hidden state (NMHS) approach that achieves interaction strength analysis and decoding of networks with nonlinear interactions by including latent state variables for each node in the network. We compare NMHS to Granger causality in analyzing neural circuit recordings and simulations, improvised music, and sociodemographic data. We conclude that NMHS significantly extends the scope of analyses of multidimensional, nonlinear networks, notably in coping with the complexity of the brain. PMID:27222584

Monotonic entropy growth for a nonlinear model of random exchanges.

PubMed

Apenko, S M

2013-02-01

We present a proof of the monotonic entropy growth for a nonlinear discrete-time model of a random market. This model, based on binary collisions, also may be viewed as a particular case of Ulam's redistribution of energy problem. We represent each step of this dynamics as a combination of two processes. The first one is a linear energy-conserving evolution of the two-particle distribution, for which the entropy growth can be easily verified. The original nonlinear process is actually a result of a specific "coarse graining" of this linear evolution, when after the collision one variable is integrated away. This coarse graining is of the same type as the real space renormalization group transformation and leads to an additional entropy growth. The combination of these two factors produces the required result which is obtained only by means of information theory inequalities.

Monotonic entropy growth for a nonlinear model of random exchanges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Apenko, S. M.

2013-02-01

We present a proof of the monotonic entropy growth for a nonlinear discrete-time model of a random market. This model, based on binary collisions, also may be viewed as a particular case of Ulam's redistribution of energy problem. We represent each step of this dynamics as a combination of two processes. The first one is a linear energy-conserving evolution of the two-particle distribution, for which the entropy growth can be easily verified. The original nonlinear process is actually a result of a specific “coarse graining” of this linear evolution, when after the collision one variable is integrated away. This coarse graining is of the same type as the real space renormalization group transformation and leads to an additional entropy growth. The combination of these two factors produces the required result which is obtained only by means of information theory inequalities.

A Nonlinear Diffusion Equation-Based Model for Ultrasound Speckle Noise Removal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Zhenyu; Guo, Zhichang; Zhang, Dazhi; Wu, Boying

2018-04-01

Ultrasound images are contaminated by speckle noise, which brings difficulties in further image analysis and clinical diagnosis. In this paper, we address this problem in the view of nonlinear diffusion equation theories. We develop a nonlinear diffusion equation-based model by taking into account not only the gradient information of the image, but also the information of the gray levels of the image. By utilizing the region indicator as the variable exponent, we can adaptively control the diffusion type which alternates between the Perona-Malik diffusion and the Charbonnier diffusion according to the image gray levels. Furthermore, we analyze the proposed model with respect to the theoretical and numerical properties. Experiments show that the proposed method achieves much better speckle suppression and edge preservation when compared with the traditional despeckling methods, especially in the low gray level and low-contrast regions.

Phase space analysis for anisotropic universe with nonlinear bulk viscosity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharif, M.; Mumtaz, Saadia

2018-06-01

In this paper, we discuss phase space analysis of locally rotationally symmetric Bianchi type I universe model by taking a noninteracting mixture of dust like and viscous radiation like fluid whose viscous pressure satisfies a nonlinear version of the Israel-Stewart transport equation. An autonomous system of equations is established by defining normalized dimensionless variables. In order to investigate stability of the system, we evaluate corresponding critical points for different values of the parameters. We also compute power-law scale factor whose behavior indicates different phases of the universe model. It is found that our analysis does not provide a complete immune from fine-tuning because the exponentially expanding solution occurs only for a particular range of parameters. We conclude that stable solutions exist in the presence of nonlinear model for bulk viscosity with different choices of the constant parameter m for anisotropic universe.

Design and verification of a hybrid nonlinear MRE vibration absorber for controllable broadband performance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, S. S.; Yildirim, T.; Wu, Jichu; Yang, J.; Du, H.; Zhang, S. W.; Li, W. H.

2017-09-01

In this work, a hybrid nonlinear magnetorheological elastomer (MRE) vibration absorber has been designed, theoretically investigated and experimentally verified. The proposed nonlinear MRE absorber has the dual advantages of a nonlinear force-displacement relationship and variable stiffness technology; the purpose for coupling these two technologies is to achieve a large broadband vibration absorber with controllable capability. To achieve a nonlinear stiffness in the device, two pairs of magnets move at a rotary angle against each other, and the theoretical nonlinear force-displacement relationship has been theoretically calculated. For the experimental investigation, the effects of base excitation, variable currents applied to the device (i.e. variable stiffness of the MRE) and semi-active control have been conducted to determine the enhanced broadband performance of the designed device. It was observed the device was able to change resonance frequency with the applied current; moreover, the hybrid nonlinear MRE absorber displayed a softening-type nonlinear response with clear discontinuous bifurcations observed. Furthermore, the performance of the device under a semi-active control algorithm displayed the optimal performance in attenuating the vibration from a primary system to the absorber over a large frequency bandwidth from 4 to 12 Hz. By coupling nonlinear stiffness attributes with variable stiffness MRE technology, the performance of a vibration absorber is substantially improved.

Assessing the Impact of Drug Use on Hospital Costs

PubMed Central

Stuart, Bruce C; Doshi, Jalpa A; Terza, Joseph V

2009-01-01

Objective To assess whether outpatient prescription drug utilization produces offsets in the cost of hospitalization for Medicare beneficiaries. Data Sources/Study Setting The study analyzed a sample (N=3,101) of community-dwelling fee-for-service U.S. Medicare beneficiaries drawn from the 1999 and 2000 Medicare Current Beneficiary Surveys. Study Design Using a two-part model specification, we regressed any hospital admission (part 1: probit) and hospital spending by those with one or more admissions (part 2: nonlinear least squares regression) on drug use in a standard model with strong covariate controls and a residual inclusion instrumental variable (IV) model using an exogenous measure of drug coverage as the instrument. Principal Findings The covariate control model predicted that each additional prescription drug used (mean=30) raised hospital spending by $16 (p<.001). The residual inclusion IV model prediction was that each additional prescription fill reduced hospital spending by $104 (p<.001). Conclusions The findings indicate that drug use is associated with cost offsets in hospitalization among Medicare beneficiaries, once omitted variable bias is corrected using an IV technique appropriate for nonlinear applications. PMID:18783453

Nonlinear data assimilation: towards a prediction of the solar cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Svedin, Andreas

The solar cycle is the cyclic variation of solar activity, with a span of 9-14 years. The prediction of the solar cycle is an important and unsolved problem with implications for communications, aviation and other aspects of our high-tech society. Our interest is model-based prediction, and we present a self-consistent procedure for parameter estimation and model state estimation, even when only one of several model variables can be observed. Data assimilation is the art of comparing, combining and transferring observed data into a mathematical model or computer simulation. We use the 3DVAR methodology, based on the notion of least squares, to present an implementation of a traditional data assimilation. Using the Shadowing Filter — a recently developed method for nonlinear data assimilation — we outline a path towards model based prediction of the solar cycle. To achieve this end we solve a number of methodological challenges related to unobserved variables. We also provide a new framework for interpretation that can guide future predictions of the Sun and other astrophysical objects.

Uncertainty quantification in Rothermel's Model using an efficient sampling method

Treesearch

Edwin Jimenez; M. Yousuff Hussaini; Scott L. Goodrick

2007-01-01

The purpose of the present work is to quantify parametric uncertainty in Rothermel’s wildland fire spread model (implemented in software such as BehavePlus3 and FARSITE), which is undoubtedly among the most widely used fire spread models in the United States. This model consists of a nonlinear system of equations that relates environmental variables (input parameter...

Traveling waves and conservation laws for highly nonlinear wave equations modeling Hertz chains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Przedborski, Michelle; Anco, Stephen C.

2017-09-01

A highly nonlinear, fourth-order wave equation that models the continuum theory of long wavelength pulses in weakly compressed, homogeneous, discrete chains with a general power-law contact interaction is studied. For this wave equation, all solitary wave solutions and all nonlinear periodic wave solutions, along with all conservation laws, are derived. The solutions are explicitly parameterized in terms of the asymptotic value of the wave amplitude in the case of solitary waves and the peak of the wave amplitude in the case of nonlinear periodic waves. All cases in which the solution expressions can be stated in an explicit analytic form using elementary functions are worked out. In these cases, explicit expressions for the total energy and total momentum for all solutions are obtained as well. The derivation of the solutions uses the conservation laws combined with an energy analysis argument to reduce the wave equation directly to a separable first-order differential equation that determines the wave amplitude in terms of the traveling wave variable. This method can be applied more generally to other highly nonlinear wave equations.

Prognostic characteristics of the lowest-mode internal waves in the Sea of Okhotsk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kurkin, Andrey; Kurkina, Oxana; Zaytsev, Andrey; Rybin, Artem; Talipova, Tatiana

2017-04-01

The nonlinear dynamics of short-period internal waves on ocean shelves is well described by generalized nonlinear evolutionary models of Korteweg - de Vries type. Parameters of these models such as long wave propagation speed, nonlinear and dispersive coefficients can be calculated using hydrological data (sea water density stratification), and therefore have geographical and seasonal variations. The internal wave parameters for the basin of the Sea of Okhotsk are computed on a base of recent version of hydrological data source GDEM V3.0. Geographical and seasonal variability of internal wave characteristics is investigated. It is shown that annually or seasonally averaged data can be used for linear parameters. The nonlinear parameters are more sensitive to temporal averaging of hydrological data and detailed data are preferable to use. The zones for nonlinear parameters to change their signs (so-called "turning points") are selected. Possible internal waveforms appearing in the process of internal tide transformation including the solitary waves changing polarities are simulated for the hydrological conditions in the Sea of Okhotsk shelf to demonstrate different scenarios of internal wave adjustment, transformation, refraction and cylindrical divergence.

A dual-input nonlinear system analysis of autonomic modulation of heart rate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chon, K. H.; Mullen, T. J.; Cohen, R. J.

1996-01-01

Linear analyses of fluctuations in heart rate and other hemodynamic variables have been used to elucidate cardiovascular regulatory mechanisms. The role of nonlinear contributions to fluctuations in hemodynamic variables has not been fully explored. This paper presents a nonlinear system analysis of the effect of fluctuations in instantaneous lung volume (ILV) and arterial blood pressure (ABP) on heart rate (HR) fluctuations. To successfully employ a nonlinear analysis based on the Laguerre expansion technique (LET), we introduce an efficient procedure for broadening the spectral content of the ILV and ABP inputs to the model by adding white noise. Results from computer simulations demonstrate the effectiveness of broadening the spectral band of input signals to obtain consistent and stable kernel estimates with the use of the LET. Without broadening the band of the ILV and ABP inputs, the LET did not provide stable kernel estimates. Moreover, we extend the LET to the case of multiple inputs in order to accommodate the analysis of the combined effect of ILV and ABP effect on heart rate. Analyzes of data based on the second-order Volterra-Wiener model reveal an important contribution of the second-order kernels to the description of the effect of lung volume and arterial blood pressure on heart rate. Furthermore, physiological effects of the autonomic blocking agents propranolol and atropine on changes in the first- and second-order kernels are also discussed.

A diffusion model of protected population on bilocal habitat with generalized resource

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vasilyev, Maxim D.; Trofimtsev, Yuri I.; Vasilyeva, Natalya V.

2017-11-01

A model of population distribution in a two-dimensional area divided by an ecological barrier, i.e. the boundaries of natural reserve, is considered. Distribution of the population is defined by diffusion, directed migrations and areal resource. The exchange of specimens occurs between two parts of the habitat. The mathematical model is presented in the form of a boundary value problem for a system of non-linear parabolic equations with variable parameters of diffusion and growth function. The splitting space variables, sweep method and simple iteration methods were used for the numerical solution of a system. A set of programs was coded in Python. Numerical simulation results for the two-dimensional unsteady non-linear problem are analyzed in detail. The influence of migration flow coefficients and functions of natural birth/death ratio on the distributions of population densities is investigated. The results of the research would allow to describe the conditions of the stable and sustainable existence of populations in bilocal habitat containing the protected and non-protected zones.

Flap-lag-torsional dynamic modelling of rotor blades in hover and in forward flight, including the effect of cubic nonlinearities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crespodasilva, M. R. M.

1981-01-01

The differential equations of motion, and boundary conditions, describing the flap-lead/lag-torsional motion of a flexible rotor blade with a precone angle and a variable pitch angle, which incorporates a pretwist, are derived via Hamilton's principle. The meaning of inextensionality is discussed. The equations are reduced to a set of three integro partial differential equations by elimination of the extension variable. The generalized aerodynamic forces are modelled using Greenberg's extension of Theodorsen's strip theory. The equations of motion are systematically expanded into polynomial nonlinearities with the objective of retaining all terms up to third degree. The blade is modeled as a long, slender, of isotropic Hookean materials. Offsets from the blade's elastic axis through its shear center and the axes for the mass, area and aerodynamic centers, radial nonuniformaties of the blade's stiffnesses and cross section properties are considered and the effect of warp of the cross section is included in the formulation.

On the modeling and nonlinear dynamics of autonomous Silva-Young type chaotic oscillators with flat power spectrum

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kengne, Jacques; Kenmogne, Fabien

2014-12-15

The nonlinear dynamics of fourth-order Silva-Young type chaotic oscillators with flat power spectrum recently introduced by Tamaseviciute and collaborators is considered. In this type of oscillators, a pair of semiconductor diodes in an anti-parallel connection acts as the nonlinear component necessary for generating chaotic oscillations. Based on the Shockley diode equation and an appropriate selection of the state variables, a smooth mathematical model (involving hyperbolic sine and cosine functions) is derived for a better description of both the regular and chaotic dynamics of the system. The complex behavior of the oscillator is characterized in terms of its parameters by usingmore » time series, bifurcation diagrams, Lyapunov exponents' plots, Poincaré sections, and frequency spectra. It is shown that the onset of chaos is achieved via the classical period-doubling and symmetry restoring crisis scenarios. Some PSPICE simulations of the nonlinear dynamics of the oscillator are presented in order to confirm the ability of the proposed mathematical model to accurately describe/predict both the regular and chaotic behaviors of the oscillator.« less

Linear and nonlinear trending and prediction for AVHRR time series data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smid, J.; Volf, P.; Slama, M.; Palus, M.

1995-01-01

The variability of AVHRR calibration coefficient in time was analyzed using algorithms of linear and non-linear time series analysis. Specifically we have used the spline trend modeling, autoregressive process analysis, incremental neural network learning algorithm and redundancy functional testing. The analysis performed on available AVHRR data sets revealed that (1) the calibration data have nonlinear dependencies, (2) the calibration data depend strongly on the target temperature, (3) both calibration coefficients and the temperature time series can be modeled, in the first approximation, as autonomous dynamical systems, (4) the high frequency residuals of the analyzed data sets can be best modeled as an autoregressive process of the 10th degree. We have dealt with a nonlinear identification problem and the problem of noise filtering (data smoothing). The system identification and filtering are significant problems for AVHRR data sets. The algorithms outlined in this study can be used for the future EOS missions. Prediction and smoothing algorithms for time series of calibration data provide a functional characterization of the data. Those algorithms can be particularly useful when calibration data are incomplete or sparse.

Feedback linearization based control of a variable air volume air conditioning system for cooling applications.

PubMed

Thosar, Archana; Patra, Amit; Bhattacharyya, Souvik

2008-07-01

Design of a nonlinear control system for a Variable Air Volume Air Conditioning (VAVAC) plant through feedback linearization is presented in this article. VAVAC systems attempt to reduce building energy consumption while maintaining the primary role of air conditioning. The temperature of the space is maintained at a constant level by establishing a balance between the cooling load generated in the space and the air supply delivered to meet the load. The dynamic model of a VAVAC plant is derived and formulated as a MIMO bilinear system. Feedback linearization is applied for decoupling and linearization of the nonlinear model. Simulation results for a laboratory scale plant are presented to demonstrate the potential of keeping comfort and maintaining energy optimal performance by this methodology. Results obtained with a conventional PI controller and a feedback linearizing controller are compared and the superiority of the proposed approach is clearly established.

Nonlinear model predictive control for chemical looping process

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Joshi, Abhinaya; Lei, Hao; Lou, Xinsheng

A control system for optimizing a chemical looping ("CL") plant includes a reduced order mathematical model ("ROM") that is designed by eliminating mathematical terms that have minimal effect on the outcome. A non-linear optimizer provides various inputs to the ROM and monitors the outputs to determine the optimum inputs that are then provided to the CL plant. An estimator estimates the values of various internal state variables of the CL plant. The system has one structure adapted to control a CL plant that only provides pressure measurements in the CL loops A and B, a second structure adapted to amore » CL plant that provides pressure measurements and solid levels in both loops A, and B, and a third structure adapted to control a CL plant that provides full information on internal state variables. A final structure provides a neural network NMPC controller to control operation of loops A and B.« less

Adaptive optimal input design and parametric estimation of nonlinear dynamical systems: application to neuronal modeling.

PubMed

Madi, Mahmoud K; Karameh, Fadi N

2018-05-11

Many physical models of biological processes including neural systems are characterized by parametric nonlinear dynamical relations between driving inputs, internal states, and measured outputs of the process. Fitting such models using experimental data (data assimilation) is a challenging task since the physical process often operates in a noisy, possibly non-stationary environment; moreover, conducting multiple experiments under controlled and repeatable conditions can be impractical, time consuming or costly. The accuracy of model identification, therefore, is dictated principally by the quality and dynamic richness of collected data over single or few experimental sessions. Accordingly, it is highly desirable to design efficient experiments that, by exciting the physical process with smart inputs, yields fast convergence and increased accuracy of the model. We herein introduce an adaptive framework in which optimal input design is integrated with Square root Cubature Kalman Filters (OID-SCKF) to develop an online estimation procedure that first, converges significantly quicker, thereby permitting model fitting over shorter time windows, and second, enhances model accuracy when only few process outputs are accessible. The methodology is demonstrated on common nonlinear models and on a four-area neural mass model with noisy and limited measurements. Estimation quality (speed and accuracy) is benchmarked against high-performance SCKF-based methods that commonly employ dynamically rich informed inputs for accurate model identification. For all the tested models, simulated single-trial and ensemble averages showed that OID-SCKF exhibited (i) faster convergence of parameter estimates and (ii) lower dependence on inter-trial noise variability with gains up to around 1000 msec in speed and 81% increase in variability for the neural mass models. In terms of accuracy, OID-SCKF estimation was superior, and exhibited considerably less variability across experiments, in identifying model parameters of (a) systems with challenging model inversion dynamics and (b) systems with fewer measurable outputs that directly relate to the underlying processes. Fast and accurate identification therefore carries particular promise for modeling of transient (short-lived) neuronal network dynamics using a spatially under-sampled set of noisy measurements, as is commonly encountered in neural engineering applications. © 2018 IOP Publishing Ltd.

Frequency Preference Response to Oscillatory Inputs in Two-dimensional Neural Models: A Geometric Approach to Subthreshold Amplitude and Phase Resonance.

PubMed

Rotstein, Horacio G

2014-01-01

We investigate the dynamic mechanisms of generation of subthreshold and phase resonance in two-dimensional linear and linearized biophysical (conductance-based) models, and we extend our analysis to account for the effect of simple, but not necessarily weak, types of nonlinearities. Subthreshold resonance refers to the ability of neurons to exhibit a peak in their voltage amplitude response to oscillatory input currents at a preferred non-zero (resonant) frequency. Phase-resonance refers to the ability of neurons to exhibit a zero-phase (or zero-phase-shift) response to oscillatory input currents at a non-zero (phase-resonant) frequency. We adapt the classical phase-plane analysis approach to account for the dynamic effects of oscillatory inputs and develop a tool, the envelope-plane diagrams, that captures the role that conductances and time scales play in amplifying the voltage response at the resonant frequency band as compared to smaller and larger frequencies. We use envelope-plane diagrams in our analysis. We explain why the resonance phenomena do not necessarily arise from the presence of imaginary eigenvalues at rest, but rather they emerge from the interplay of the intrinsic and input time scales. We further explain why an increase in the time-scale separation causes an amplification of the voltage response in addition to shifting the resonant and phase-resonant frequencies. This is of fundamental importance for neural models since neurons typically exhibit a strong separation of time scales. We extend this approach to explain the effects of nonlinearities on both resonance and phase-resonance. We demonstrate that nonlinearities in the voltage equation cause amplifications of the voltage response and shifts in the resonant and phase-resonant frequencies that are not predicted by the corresponding linearized model. The differences between the nonlinear response and the linear prediction increase with increasing levels of the time scale separation between the voltage and the gating variable, and they almost disappear when both equations evolve at comparable rates. In contrast, voltage responses are almost insensitive to nonlinearities located in the gating variable equation. The method we develop provides a framework for the investigation of the preferred frequency responses in three-dimensional and nonlinear neuronal models as well as simple models of coupled neurons.

A Numerical Scheme for Ordinary Differential Equations Having Time Varying and Nonlinear Coefficients Based on the State Transition Matrix

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bartels, Robert E.

2002-01-01

A variable order method of integrating initial value ordinary differential equations that is based on the state transition matrix has been developed. The method has been evaluated for linear time variant and nonlinear systems of equations. While it is more complex than most other methods, it produces exact solutions at arbitrary time step size when the time variation of the system can be modeled exactly by a polynomial. Solutions to several nonlinear problems exhibiting chaotic behavior have been computed. Accuracy of the method has been demonstrated by comparison with an exact solution and with solutions obtained by established methods.

Application of nonlinear least-squares regression to ground-water flow modeling, west-central Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yobbi, D.K.

2000-01-01

A nonlinear least-squares regression technique for estimation of ground-water flow model parameters was applied to an existing model of the regional aquifer system underlying west-central Florida. The regression technique minimizes the differences between measured and simulated water levels. Regression statistics, including parameter sensitivities and correlations, were calculated for reported parameter values in the existing model. Optimal parameter values for selected hydrologic variables of interest are estimated by nonlinear regression. Optimal estimates of parameter values are about 140 times greater than and about 0.01 times less than reported values. Independently estimating all parameters by nonlinear regression was impossible, given the existing zonation structure and number of observations, because of parameter insensitivity and correlation. Although the model yields parameter values similar to those estimated by other methods and reproduces the measured water levels reasonably accurately, a simpler parameter structure should be considered. Some possible ways of improving model calibration are to: (1) modify the defined parameter-zonation structure by omitting and/or combining parameters to be estimated; (2) carefully eliminate observation data based on evidence that they are likely to be biased; (3) collect additional water-level data; (4) assign values to insensitive parameters, and (5) estimate the most sensitive parameters first, then, using the optimized values for these parameters, estimate the entire data set.

Mutual information and phase dependencies: measures of reduced nonlinear cardiorespiratory interactions after myocardial infarction.

PubMed

Hoyer, Dirk; Leder, Uwe; Hoyer, Heike; Pompe, Bernd; Sommer, Michael; Zwiener, Ulrich

2002-01-01

The heart rate variability (HRV) is related to several mechanisms of the complex autonomic functioning such as respiratory heart rate modulation and phase dependencies between heart beat cycles and breathing cycles. The underlying processes are basically nonlinear. In order to understand and quantitatively assess those physiological interactions an adequate coupling analysis is necessary. We hypothesized that nonlinear measures of HRV and cardiorespiratory interdependencies are superior to the standard HRV measures in classifying patients after acute myocardial infarction. We introduced mutual information measures which provide access to nonlinear interdependencies as counterpart to the classically linear correlation analysis. The nonlinear statistical autodependencies of HRV were quantified by auto mutual information, the respiratory heart rate modulation by cardiorespiratory cross mutual information, respectively. The phase interdependencies between heart beat cycles and breathing cycles were assessed basing on the histograms of the frequency ratios of the instantaneous heart beat and respiratory cycles. Furthermore, the relative duration of phase synchronized intervals was acquired. We investigated 39 patients after acute myocardial infarction versus 24 controls. The discrimination of these groups was improved by cardiorespiratory cross mutual information measures and phase interdependencies measures in comparison to the linear standard HRV measures. This result was statistically confirmed by means of logistic regression models of particular variable subsets and their receiver operating characteristics.

State variable modeling of the integrated engine and aircraft dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rotaru, Constantin; Sprinţu, Iuliana

2014-12-01

This study explores the dynamic characteristics of the combined aircraft-engine system, based on the general theory of the state variables for linear and nonlinear systems, with details leading first to the separate formulation of the longitudinal and the lateral directional state variable models, followed by the merging of the aircraft and engine models into a single state variable model. The linearized equations were expressed in a matrix form and the engine dynamics was included in terms of variation of thrust following a deflection of the throttle. The linear model of the shaft dynamics for a two-spool jet engine was derived by extending the one-spool model. The results include the discussion of the thrust effect upon the aircraft response when the thrust force associated with the engine has a sizable moment arm with respect to the aircraft center of gravity for creating a compensating moment.

An analysis of input errors in precipitation-runoff models using regression with errors in the independent variables

USGS Publications Warehouse

Troutman, Brent M.

1982-01-01

Errors in runoff prediction caused by input data errors are analyzed by treating precipitation-runoff models as regression (conditional expectation) models. Independent variables of the regression consist of precipitation and other input measurements; the dependent variable is runoff. In models using erroneous input data, prediction errors are inflated and estimates of expected storm runoff for given observed input variables are biased. This bias in expected runoff estimation results in biased parameter estimates if these parameter estimates are obtained by a least squares fit of predicted to observed runoff values. The problems of error inflation and bias are examined in detail for a simple linear regression of runoff on rainfall and for a nonlinear U.S. Geological Survey precipitation-runoff model. Some implications for flood frequency analysis are considered. A case study using a set of data from Turtle Creek near Dallas, Texas illustrates the problems of model input errors.

A first approach to the distortion analysis of nonlinear analog circuits utilizing X-parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weber, H.; Widemann, C.; Mathis, W.

2013-07-01

In this contribution a first approach to the distortion analysis of nonlinear 2-port-networks with X-parameters1 is presented. The X-parameters introduced by Verspecht and Root (2006) offer the possibility to describe nonlinear microwave 2-port-networks under large signal conditions. On the basis of X-parameter measurements with a nonlinear network analyzer (NVNA) behavioral models can be extracted for the networks. These models can be used to consider the nonlinear behavior during the design process of microwave circuits. The idea of the present work is to extract the behavioral models in order to describe the influence of interfering signals on the output behavior of the nonlinear circuits. Hereby, a simulator is used instead of a NVNA to extract the X-parameters. Assuming that the interfering signals are relatively small compared to the nominal input signal, the output signal can be described as a superposition of the effects of each input signal. In order to determine the functional correlation between the scattering variables, a polynomial dependency is assumed. The required datasets for the approximation of the describing functions are simulated by a directional coupler model in Cadence Design Framework. The polynomial coefficients are obtained by a least-square method. The resulting describing functions can be used to predict the system's behavior under certain conditions as well as the effects of the interfering signal on the output signal. 1 X-parameter is a registered trademark of Agilent Technologies, Inc.

Modeling soybean canopy resistance from micrometeorological and plant variables for estimating evapotranspiration using one-step Penman-Monteith approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Irmak, Suat; Mutiibwa, Denis; Payero, Jose; Marek, Thomas; Porter, Dana

2013-12-01

Canopy resistance (rc) is one of the most important variables in evapotranspiration, agronomy, hydrology and climate change studies that link vegetation response to changing environmental and climatic variables. This study investigates the concept of generalized nonlinear/linear modeling approach of rc from micrometeorological and plant variables for soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] canopy at different climatic zones in Nebraska, USA (Clay Center, Geneva, Holdrege and North Platte). Eight models estimating rc as a function of different combination of micrometeorological and plant variables are presented. The models integrated the linear and non-linear effects of regulating variables (net radiation, Rn; relative humidity, RH; wind speed, U3; air temperature, Ta; vapor pressure deficit, VPD; leaf area index, LAI; aerodynamic resistance, ra; and solar zenith angle, Za) to predict hourly rc. The most complex rc model has all regulating variables and the simplest model has only Rn, Ta and RH. The rc models were developed at Clay Center in the growing season of 2007 and applied to other independent sites and years. The predicted rc for the growing seasons at four locations were then used to estimate actual crop evapotranspiration (ETc) as a one-step process using the Penman-Monteith model and compared to the measured data at all locations. The models were able to account for 66-93% of the variability in measured hourly ETc across locations. Models without LAI generally underperformed and underestimated due to overestimation of rc, especially during full canopy cover stage. Using vapor pressure deficit or relative humidity in the models had similar effect on estimating rc. The root squared error (RSE) between measured and estimated ETc was about 0.07 mm h-1 for most of the models at Clay Center, Geneva and Holdrege. At North Platte, RSE was above 0.10 mm h-1. The results at different sites and different growing seasons demonstrate the robustness and consistency of the models in estimating soybean rc, which is encouraging towards the general application of one-step estimation of soybean canopy ETc in practice using the Penman-Monteith model and could aid in enhancing the utilization of the approach by irrigation and water management community.

Comparing Models of Spontaneous Variations, Maneuvers and Indexes to Assess Dynamic Cerebral Autoregulation.

PubMed

Chacón, Max; Noh, Sun-Ho; Landerretche, Jean; Jara, José L

2018-01-01

We analyzed the performance of linear and nonlinear models to assess dynamic cerebral autoregulation (dCA) from spontaneous variations in healthy subjects and compared it with the use of two known maneuvers to abruptly change arterial blood pressure (BP): thigh cuffs and sit-to-stand. Cerebral blood flow velocity and BP were measured simultaneously at rest and while the maneuvers were performed in 20 healthy subjects. To analyze the spontaneous variations, we implemented two types of models using support vector machine (SVM): linear and nonlinear finite impulse response models. The classic autoregulation index (ARI) and the more recently proposed model-free ARI (mfARI) were used as measures of dCA. An ANOVA analysis was applied to compare the different methods and the coefficient of variation was calculated to evaluate their variability. There are differences between indexes, but not between models and maneuvers. The mfARI index with the sit-to-stand maneuver shows the least variability. Support vector machine modeling of spontaneous variation with the mfARI index could be used for the assessment of dCA as an alternative to maneuvers to introduce large BP fluctuations.

Substorm Electric And Magnetic Fields In The Earth's Magnetotail: Observations Compared To The WINDMI Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Srinivas, P. G.; Spencer, E. A.; Vadepu, S. K.; Horton, W., Jr.

2017-12-01

We compare satellite observations of substorm electric fields and magnetic fields to the output of a low dimensional nonlinear physics model of the nightside magnetosphere called WINDMI. The electric and magnetic field satellite data are used to calculate the E X B drift, which is one of the intermediate variables of the WINDMI model. The model uses solar wind and IMF measurements from the ACE spacecraft as input into a system of 8 nonlinear ordinary differential equations. The state variables of the differential equations represent the energy stored in the geomagnetic tail, central plasma sheet, ring current and field aligned currents. The output from the model is the ground based geomagnetic westward auroral electrojet (AL) index, and the Dst index.Using ACE solar wind data, IMF data and SuperMAG identification of substorm onset times up to December 2015, we constrain the WINDMI model to trigger substorm events, and compare the model intermediate variables to THEMIS and GEOTAIL satellite data in the magnetotail. By forcing the model to be consistent with satellite electric and magnetic field observations, we are able to track the magnetotail energy dynamics, the field aligned current contributions, energy injections into the ring current, and ensure that they are within allowable limts. In addition we are able to constrain the physical parameters of the model, in particular the lobe inductance, the plasma sheet capacitance, and the resistive and conductive parameters in the plasma sheet and ionosphere.

Does Nonlinear Modeling Play a Role in Plasmid Bioprocess Monitoring Using Fourier Transform Infrared Spectra?

PubMed

Lopes, Marta B; Calado, Cecília R C; Figueiredo, Mário A T; Bioucas-Dias, José M

2017-06-01

The monitoring of biopharmaceutical products using Fourier transform infrared (FT-IR) spectroscopy relies on calibration techniques involving the acquisition of spectra of bioprocess samples along the process. The most commonly used method for that purpose is partial least squares (PLS) regression, under the assumption that a linear model is valid. Despite being successful in the presence of small nonlinearities, linear methods may fail in the presence of strong nonlinearities. This paper studies the potential usefulness of nonlinear regression methods for predicting, from in situ near-infrared (NIR) and mid-infrared (MIR) spectra acquired in high-throughput mode, biomass and plasmid concentrations in Escherichia coli DH5-α cultures producing the plasmid model pVAX-LacZ. The linear methods PLS and ridge regression (RR) are compared with their kernel (nonlinear) versions, kPLS and kRR, as well as with the (also nonlinear) relevance vector machine (RVM) and Gaussian process regression (GPR). For the systems studied, RR provided better predictive performances compared to the remaining methods. Moreover, the results point to further investigation based on larger data sets whenever differences in predictive accuracy between a linear method and its kernelized version could not be found. The use of nonlinear methods, however, shall be judged regarding the additional computational cost required to tune their additional parameters, especially when the less computationally demanding linear methods herein studied are able to successfully monitor the variables under study.

Median regression spline modeling of longitudinal FEV1 measurements in cystic fibrosis (CF) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients.

PubMed

Conrad, Douglas J; Bailey, Barbara A; Hardie, Jon A; Bakke, Per S; Eagan, Tomas M L; Aarli, Bernt B

2017-01-01

Clinical phenotyping, therapeutic investigations as well as genomic, airway secretion metabolomic and metagenomic investigations can benefit from robust, nonlinear modeling of FEV1 in individual subjects. We demonstrate the utility of measuring FEV1 dynamics in representative cystic fibrosis (CF) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) populations. Individual FEV1 data from CF and COPD subjects were modeled by estimating median regression splines and their predicted first and second derivatives. Classes were created from variables that capture the dynamics of these curves in both cohorts. Nine FEV1 dynamic variables were identified from the splines and their predicted derivatives in individuals with CF (n = 177) and COPD (n = 374). Three FEV1 dynamic classes (i.e. stable, intermediate and hypervariable) were generated and described using these variables from both cohorts. In the CF cohort, the FEV1 hypervariable class (HV) was associated with a clinically unstable, female-dominated phenotypes while stable FEV1 class (S) individuals were highly associated with the male-dominated milder clinical phenotype. In the COPD cohort, associations were found between the FEV1 dynamic classes, the COPD GOLD grades, with exacerbation frequency and symptoms. Nonlinear modeling of FEV1 with splines provides new insights and is useful in characterizing CF and COPD clinical phenotypes.

A unifying view of synchronization for data assimilation in complex nonlinear networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abarbanel, Henry D. I.; Shirman, Sasha; Breen, Daniel; Kadakia, Nirag; Rey, Daniel; Armstrong, Eve; Margoliash, Daniel

2017-12-01

Networks of nonlinear systems contain unknown parameters and dynamical degrees of freedom that may not be observable with existing instruments. From observable state variables, we want to estimate the connectivity of a model of such a network and determine the full state of the model at the termination of a temporal observation window during which measurements transfer information to a model of the network. The model state at the termination of a measurement window acts as an initial condition for predicting the future behavior of the network. This allows the validation (or invalidation) of the model as a representation of the dynamical processes producing the observations. Once the model has been tested against new data, it may be utilized as a predictor of responses to innovative stimuli or forcing. We describe a general framework for the tasks involved in the "inverse" problem of determining properties of a model built to represent measured output from physical, biological, or other processes when the measurements are noisy, the model has errors, and the state of the model is unknown when measurements begin. This framework is called statistical data assimilation and is the best one can do in estimating model properties through the use of the conditional probability distributions of the model state variables, conditioned on observations. There is a very broad arena of applications of the methods described. These include numerical weather prediction, properties of nonlinear electrical circuitry, and determining the biophysical properties of functional networks of neurons. Illustrative examples will be given of (1) estimating the connectivity among neurons with known dynamics in a network of unknown connectivity, and (2) estimating the biophysical properties of individual neurons in vitro taken from a functional network underlying vocalization in songbirds.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Davis, C.G.

Starting with the initial understanding that pulsation in variable stars is caused by the heat engine of Hydrogen and Helium ionization in their atmospheres (A.S. Eddington in Cox 1980) it was soon realized that non-linear effects were responsible for the detailed features on their light and velocity curves. With the advent of the computer we were able to solve the coupled set of hydrodynamics and radiation diffusion equations to model these non-linear features. This paper describes some recent model results for long period (LP) Cepheids in an attempt to get another handle on Cepheid masses. Section II discusses these resultsmore » and Section III considers the implications of these model results on the problem of the Cepheid mass discrepancy.« less

Nonlinear models for estimating GSFC travel requirements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Buffalano, C.; Hagan, F. J.

1974-01-01

A methodology is presented for estimating travel requirements for a particular period of time. Travel models were generated using nonlinear regression analysis techniques on a data base of FY-72 and FY-73 information from 79 GSFC projects. Although the subject matter relates to GSFX activities, the type of analysis used and the manner of selecting the relevant variables would be of interest to other NASA centers, government agencies, private corporations and, in general, any organization with a significant travel budget. Models were developed for each of six types of activity: flight projects (in-house and out-of-house), experiments on non-GSFC projects, international projects, ART/SRT, data analysis, advanced studies, tracking and data, and indirects.

Enhanced model of gear transmission dynamics for condition monitoring applications: Effects of torque, friction and bearing clearance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandez-del-Rincon, A.; Garcia, P.; Diez-Ibarbia, A.; de-Juan, A.; Iglesias, M.; Viadero, F.

2017-02-01

Gear transmissions remain as one of the most complex mechanical systems from the point of view of noise and vibration behavior. Research on gear modeling leading to the obtaining of models capable of accurately reproduce the dynamic behavior of real gear transmissions has spread out the last decades. Most of these models, although useful for design stages, often include simplifications that impede their application for condition monitoring purposes. Trying to filling this gap, the model presented in this paper allows us to simulate gear transmission dynamics including most of these features usually neglected by the state of the art models. This work presents a model capable of considering simultaneously the internal excitations due to the variable meshing stiffness (including the coupling among successive tooth pairs in contact, the non-linearity linked with the contacts between surfaces and the dissipative effects), and those excitations consequence of the bearing variable compliance (including clearances or pre-loads). The model can also simulate gear dynamics in a realistic torque dependent scenario. The proposed model combines a hybrid formulation for calculation of meshing forces with a non-linear variable compliance approach for bearings. Meshing forces are obtained by means of a double approach which combines numerical and analytical aspects. The methodology used provides a detailed description of the meshing forces, allowing their calculation even when gear center distance is modified due to shaft and bearing flexibilities, which are unavoidable in real transmissions. On the other hand, forces at bearing level were obtained considering a variable number of supporting rolling elements, depending on the applied load and clearances. Both formulations have been developed and applied to the simulation of the vibration of a sample transmission, focusing the attention on the transmitted load, friction meshing forces and bearing preloads.

Some new retarded nonlinear Volterra-Fredholm type integral inequalities with maxima in two variables and their applications.

PubMed

Xu, Run; Ma, Xiangting

2017-01-01

In this paper, we establish some new retarded nonlinear Volterra-Fredholm type integral inequalities with maxima in two independent variables, and we present the applications to research the boundedness of solutions to retarded nonlinear Volterra-Fredholm type integral equations.

A genuine nonlinear approach for controller design of a boiler-turbine system.

PubMed

Yang, Shizhong; Qian, Chunjiang; Du, Haibo

2012-05-01

This paper proposes a genuine nonlinear approach for controller design of a drum-type boiler-turbine system. Based on a second order nonlinear model, a finite-time convergent controller is first designed to drive the states to their setpoints in a finite time. In the case when the state variables are unmeasurable, the system will be regulated using a constant controller or an output feedback controller. An adaptive controller is also designed to stabilize the system since the model parameters may vary under different operating points. The novelty of the proposed controller design approach lies in fully utilizing the system nonlinearities instead of linearizing or canceling them. In addition, the newly developed techniques for finite-time convergent controller are used to guarantee fast convergence of the system. Simulations are conducted under different cases and the results are presented to illustrate the performance of the proposed controllers. Copyright © 2011 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A thermodynamic approach to nonlinear ultrasonics for material state awareness and prognosis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chillara, Vamshi Krishna

2017-11-01

We develop a thermodynamic framework for modeling nonlinear ultrasonic damage sensing and prognosis in materials undergoing progressive damage. The framework is based on the internal variable approach and relies on the construction of a pseudo-elastic strain energy function that captures the energetics associated with the damage progression. The pseudo-elastic strain energy function is composed of two energy functions—one that describes how a material stores energy in an elastic fashion and the other describes how material dissipates energy or stores it in an inelastic fashion. Experimental motivation for the choice of the above two functionals is discussed and some specific choices pertaining to damage progression during fatigue and creep are presented. The thermodynamic framework is employed to model the nonlinear response of material undergoing stress relaxation and creep-like degradation. For each of the above cases, evolution of the nonlinearity parameter with damage as well as with macroscopic measurables like accumulated plastic strain is obtained.

Experiences from the testing of a theory for modelling groundwater flow in heterogeneous media

USGS Publications Warehouse

Christensen, S.; Cooley, R.L.

2002-01-01

Usually, small-scale model error is present in groundwater modelling because the model only represents average system characteristics having the same form as the drift and small-scale variability is neglected. These errors cause the true errors of a regression model to be correlated. Theory and an example show that the errors also contribute to bias in the estimates of model parameters. This bias originates from model nonlinearity. In spite of this bias, predictions of hydraulic head are nearly unbiased if the model intrinsic nonlinearity is small. Individual confidence and prediction intervals are accurate if the t-statistic is multiplied by a correction factor. The correction factor can be computed from the true error second moment matrix, which can be determined when the stochastic properties of the system characteristics are known.

Experience gained in testing a theory for modelling groundwater flow in heterogeneous media

USGS Publications Warehouse

Christensen, S.; Cooley, R.L.

2002-01-01

Usually, small-scale model error is present in groundwater modelling because the model only represents average system characteristics having the same form as the drift, and small-scale variability is neglected. These errors cause the true errors of a regression model to be correlated. Theory and an example show that the errors also contribute to bias in the estimates of model parameters. This bias originates from model nonlinearity. In spite of this bias, predictions of hydraulic head are nearly unbiased if the model intrinsic nonlinearity is small. Individual confidence and prediction intervals are accurate if the t-statistic is multiplied by a correction factor. The correction factor can be computed from the true error second moment matrix, which can be determined when the stochastic properties of the system characteristics are known.

Variation in Plant Defense Suppresses Herbivore Performance.

PubMed

Pearse, Ian S; Paul, Ryan; Ode, Paul J

2018-06-18

Defensive variability of crops and natural systems can alter herbivore communities and reduce herbivory [1, 2]. However, it is still unknown how defense variability translates into herbivore suppression. Nonlinear averaging and constraints in physiological tracking (also more generally called time-dependent effects) are the two mechanisms by which defense variability might impact herbivores [3, 4]. We conducted a set of experiments manipulating the mean and variability of a plant defense, showing that defense variability does suppress herbivore performance and that it does so through physiological tracking effects that cannot be explained by nonlinear averaging. While nonlinear averaging predicted higher or the same herbivore performance on a variable defense than on an invariable defense, we show that variability actually decreased herbivore performance and population growth rate. Defense variability reduces herbivore performance in a way that is more than the average of its parts. This is consistent with constraints in physiological matching of detoxification systems for herbivores experiencing variable toxin levels in their diet and represents a more generalizable way of understanding the impacts of variability on herbivory [5]. Increasing defense variability in croplands at a scale encountered by individual herbivores can suppress herbivory, even if that is not anticipated by nonlinear averaging. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Variation in plant defense suppresses herbivore performance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pearse, Ian; Paul, Ryan; Ode, Paul J.

2018-01-01

Defensive variability of crops and natural systems can alter herbivore communities and reduce herbivory. However, it is still unknown how defense variability translates into herbivore suppression. Nonlinear averaging and constraints in physiological tracking (also more generally called time-dependent effects) are the two mechanisms by which defense variability might impact herbivores. We conducted a set of experiments manipulating the mean and variability of a plant defense, showing that defense variability does suppress herbivore performance and that it does so through physiological tracking effects that cannot be explained by nonlinear averaging. While nonlinear averaging predicted higher or the same herbivore performance on a variable defense than on an invariable defense, we show that variability actually decreased herbivore performance and population growth rate. Defense variability reduces herbivore performance in a way that is more than the average of its parts. This is consistent with constraints in physiological matching of detoxification systems for herbivores experiencing variable toxin levels in their diet and represents a more generalizable way of understanding the impacts of variability on herbivory. Increasing defense variability in croplands at a scale encountered by individual herbivores can suppress herbivory, even if that is not anticipated by nonlinear averaging.

Inverting Monotonic Nonlinearities by Entropy Maximization

PubMed Central

López-de-Ipiña Pena, Karmele; Caiafa, Cesar F.

2016-01-01

This paper proposes a new method for blind inversion of a monotonic nonlinear map applied to a sum of random variables. Such kinds of mixtures of random variables are found in source separation and Wiener system inversion problems, for example. The importance of our proposed method is based on the fact that it permits to decouple the estimation of the nonlinear part (nonlinear compensation) from the estimation of the linear one (source separation matrix or deconvolution filter), which can be solved by applying any convenient linear algorithm. Our new nonlinear compensation algorithm, the MaxEnt algorithm, generalizes the idea of Gaussianization of the observation by maximizing its entropy instead. We developed two versions of our algorithm based either in a polynomial or a neural network parameterization of the nonlinear function. We provide a sufficient condition on the nonlinear function and the probability distribution that gives a guarantee for the MaxEnt method to succeed compensating the distortion. Through an extensive set of simulations, MaxEnt is compared with existing algorithms for blind approximation of nonlinear maps. Experiments show that MaxEnt is able to successfully compensate monotonic distortions outperforming other methods in terms of the obtained Signal to Noise Ratio in many important cases, for example when the number of variables in a mixture is small. Besides its ability for compensating nonlinearities, MaxEnt is very robust, i.e. showing small variability in the results. PMID:27780261

Inverting Monotonic Nonlinearities by Entropy Maximization.

PubMed

Solé-Casals, Jordi; López-de-Ipiña Pena, Karmele; Caiafa, Cesar F

2016-01-01

This paper proposes a new method for blind inversion of a monotonic nonlinear map applied to a sum of random variables. Such kinds of mixtures of random variables are found in source separation and Wiener system inversion problems, for example. The importance of our proposed method is based on the fact that it permits to decouple the estimation of the nonlinear part (nonlinear compensation) from the estimation of the linear one (source separation matrix or deconvolution filter), which can be solved by applying any convenient linear algorithm. Our new nonlinear compensation algorithm, the MaxEnt algorithm, generalizes the idea of Gaussianization of the observation by maximizing its entropy instead. We developed two versions of our algorithm based either in a polynomial or a neural network parameterization of the nonlinear function. We provide a sufficient condition on the nonlinear function and the probability distribution that gives a guarantee for the MaxEnt method to succeed compensating the distortion. Through an extensive set of simulations, MaxEnt is compared with existing algorithms for blind approximation of nonlinear maps. Experiments show that MaxEnt is able to successfully compensate monotonic distortions outperforming other methods in terms of the obtained Signal to Noise Ratio in many important cases, for example when the number of variables in a mixture is small. Besides its ability for compensating nonlinearities, MaxEnt is very robust, i.e. showing small variability in the results.

Mixed Effects Modeling Using Stochastic Differential Equations: Illustrated by Pharmacokinetic Data of Nicotinic Acid in Obese Zucker Rats.

PubMed

Leander, Jacob; Almquist, Joachim; Ahlström, Christine; Gabrielsson, Johan; Jirstrand, Mats

2015-05-01

Inclusion of stochastic differential equations in mixed effects models provides means to quantify and distinguish three sources of variability in data. In addition to the two commonly encountered sources, measurement error and interindividual variability, we also consider uncertainty in the dynamical model itself. To this end, we extend the ordinary differential equation setting used in nonlinear mixed effects models to include stochastic differential equations. The approximate population likelihood is derived using the first-order conditional estimation with interaction method and extended Kalman filtering. To illustrate the application of the stochastic differential mixed effects model, two pharmacokinetic models are considered. First, we use a stochastic one-compartmental model with first-order input and nonlinear elimination to generate synthetic data in a simulated study. We show that by using the proposed method, the three sources of variability can be successfully separated. If the stochastic part is neglected, the parameter estimates become biased, and the measurement error variance is significantly overestimated. Second, we consider an extension to a stochastic pharmacokinetic model in a preclinical study of nicotinic acid kinetics in obese Zucker rats. The parameter estimates are compared between a deterministic and a stochastic NiAc disposition model, respectively. Discrepancies between model predictions and observations, previously described as measurement noise only, are now separated into a comparatively lower level of measurement noise and a significant uncertainty in model dynamics. These examples demonstrate that stochastic differential mixed effects models are useful tools for identifying incomplete or inaccurate model dynamics and for reducing potential bias in parameter estimates due to such model deficiencies.

Understanding Coupling of Global and Diffuse Solar Radiation with Climatic Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamdan, Lubna

Global solar radiation data is very important for wide variety of applications and scientific studies. However, this data is not readily available because of the cost of measuring equipment and the tedious maintenance and calibration requirements. Wide variety of models have been introduced by researchers to estimate and/or predict the global solar radiations and its components (direct and diffuse radiation) using other readily obtainable atmospheric parameters. The goal of this research is to understand the coupling of global and diffuse solar radiation with climatic variability, by investigating the relationships between these radiations and atmospheric parameters. For this purpose, we applied multilinear regression analysis on the data of National Solar Radiation Database 1991--2010 Update. The analysis showed that the main atmospheric parameters that affect the amount of global radiation received on earth's surface are cloud cover and relative humidity. Global radiation correlates negatively with both variables. Linear models are excellent approximations for the relationship between atmospheric parameters and global radiation. A linear model with the predictors total cloud cover, relative humidity, and extraterrestrial radiation is able to explain around 98% of the variability in global radiation. For diffuse radiation, the analysis showed that the main atmospheric parameters that affect the amount received on earth's surface are cloud cover and aerosol optical depth. Diffuse radiation correlates positively with both variables. Linear models are very good approximations for the relationship between atmospheric parameters and diffuse radiation. A linear model with the predictors total cloud cover, aerosol optical depth, and extraterrestrial radiation is able to explain around 91% of the variability in diffuse radiation. Prediction analysis showed that the linear models we fitted were able to predict diffuse radiation with efficiency of test adjusted R2 values equal to 0.93, using the data of total cloud cover, aerosol optical depth, relative humidity and extraterrestrial radiation. However, for prediction purposes, using nonlinear terms or nonlinear models might enhance the prediction of diffuse radiation.

A proposed Kalman filter algorithm for estimation of unmeasured output variables for an F100 turbofan engine

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alag, Gurbux S.; Gilyard, Glenn B.

1990-01-01

To develop advanced control systems for optimizing aircraft engine performance, unmeasurable output variables must be estimated. The estimation has to be done in an uncertain environment and be adaptable to varying degrees of modeling errors and other variations in engine behavior over its operational life cycle. This paper represented an approach to estimate unmeasured output variables by explicitly modeling the effects of off-nominal engine behavior as biases on the measurable output variables. A state variable model accommodating off-nominal behavior is developed for the engine, and Kalman filter concepts are used to estimate the required variables. Results are presented from nonlinear engine simulation studies as well as the application of the estimation algorithm on actual flight data. The formulation presented has a wide range of application since it is not restricted or tailored to the particular application described.

Variable-Speed Simulation of a Dual-Clutch Gearbox Tiltrotor Driveline

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeSmidt, Hans; Wang, Kon-Well; Smith, Edward C.; Lewicki, David G.

2012-01-01

This investigation explores the variable-speed operation and shift response of a prototypical two-speed dual-clutch transmission tiltrotor driveline in forward flight. Here, a Comprehensive Variable-Speed Rotorcraft Propulsion System Modeling (CVSRPM) tool developed under a NASA funded NRA program is utilized to simulate the drive system dynamics. In this study, a sequential shifting control strategy is analyzed under a steady forward cruise condition. This investigation attempts to build upon previous variable-speed rotorcraft propulsion studies by 1) including a fully nonlinear transient gas-turbine engine model, 2) including clutch stick-slip friction effects, 3) including shaft flexibility, 4) incorporating a basic flight dynamics model to account for interactions with the flight control system. Through exploring the interactions between the various subsystems, this analysis provides important insights into the continuing development of variable-speed rotorcraft propulsion systems.

Investigation of heat and mass transfer under the influence of variable diffusion coefficient and thermal conductivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohyud Din, S. T.; Zubair, T.; Usman, M.; Hamid, M.; Rafiq, M.; Mohsin, S.

2018-04-01

This study is devoted to analyze the influence of variable diffusion coefficient and variable thermal conductivity on heat and mass transfer in Casson fluid flow. The behavior of concentration and temperature profiles in the presence of Joule heating and viscous dissipation is also studied. The dimensionless conversation laws with suitable BCs are solved via Modified Gegenbauer Wavelets Method (MGWM). It has been observed that increase in Casson fluid parameter (β ) and parameter ɛ enhances the Nusselt number. Moreover, Nusselt number of Newtonian fluid is less than that of the Casson fluid. The phenomenon of mass transport can be increased by solute of variable diffusion coefficient rather than solute of constant diffusion coefficient. A detailed analysis of results is appropriately highlighted. The obtained results, error estimates, and convergence analysis reconfirm the credibility of proposed algorithm. It is concluded that MGWM is an appropriate tool to tackle nonlinear physical models and hence may be extended to some other nonlinear problems of diversified physical nature also.

Development and Application of Nonlinear Land-Use Regression Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Champendal, Alexandre; Kanevski, Mikhail; Huguenot, Pierre-Emmanuel

2014-05-01

The problem of air pollution modelling in urban zones is of great importance both from scientific and applied points of view. At present there are several fundamental approaches either based on science-based modelling (air pollution dispersion) or on the application of space-time geostatistical methods (e.g. family of kriging models or conditional stochastic simulations). Recently, there were important developments in so-called Land Use Regression (LUR) models. These models take into account geospatial information (e.g. traffic network, sources of pollution, average traffic, population census, land use, etc.) at different scales, for example, using buffering operations. Usually the dimension of the input space (number of independent variables) is within the range of (10-100). It was shown that LUR models have some potential to model complex and highly variable patterns of air pollution in urban zones. Most of LUR models currently used are linear models. In the present research the nonlinear LUR models are developed and applied for Geneva city. Mainly two nonlinear data-driven models were elaborated: multilayer perceptron and random forest. An important part of the research deals also with a comprehensive exploratory data analysis using statistical, geostatistical and time series tools. Unsupervised self-organizing maps were applied to better understand space-time patterns of the pollution. The real data case study deals with spatial-temporal air pollution data of Geneva (2002-2011). Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) has caught our attention. It has effects on human health and on plants; NO2 contributes to the phenomenon of acid rain. The negative effects of nitrogen dioxides on plants are the reduction of the growth, production and pesticide resistance. And finally, the effects on materials: nitrogen dioxide increases the corrosion. The data used for this study consist of a set of 106 NO2 passive sensors. 80 were used to build the models and the remaining 36 have constituted the testing set. Missing data have been completed using multiple linear regression and annual average values of pollutant concentrations were computed. All sensors are dispersed homogeneously over the central urban area of Geneva. The main result of the study is that the nonlinear LUR models developed have demonstrated their efficiency in modelling complex phrenomena of air pollution in urban zones and significantly reduced the testing error in comparison with linear models. Further research deals with the development and application of other non-linear data-driven models (Kanevski et al. 2009). References Kanevski M., Pozdnoukhov A. and Timonin V. (2009). Machine Learning for Spatial Environmental Data. Theory, Applications and Software. EPLF Press, Lausanne.

Cocaine Dependence Treatment Data: Methods for Measurement Error Problems With Predictors Derived From Stationary Stochastic Processes

PubMed Central

Guan, Yongtao; Li, Yehua; Sinha, Rajita

2011-01-01

In a cocaine dependence treatment study, we use linear and nonlinear regression models to model posttreatment cocaine craving scores and first cocaine relapse time. A subset of the covariates are summary statistics derived from baseline daily cocaine use trajectories, such as baseline cocaine use frequency and average daily use amount. These summary statistics are subject to estimation error and can therefore cause biased estimators for the regression coefficients. Unlike classical measurement error problems, the error we encounter here is heteroscedastic with an unknown distribution, and there are no replicates for the error-prone variables or instrumental variables. We propose two robust methods to correct for the bias: a computationally efficient method-of-moments-based method for linear regression models and a subsampling extrapolation method that is generally applicable to both linear and nonlinear regression models. Simulations and an application to the cocaine dependence treatment data are used to illustrate the efficacy of the proposed methods. Asymptotic theory and variance estimation for the proposed subsampling extrapolation method and some additional simulation results are described in the online supplementary material. PMID:21984854

Data-driven Climate Modeling and Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kondrashov, D. A.; Chekroun, M.

2016-12-01

Global climate models aim to simulate a broad range of spatio-temporal scales of climate variability with state vector having many millions of degrees of freedom. On the other hand, while detailed weather prediction out to a few days requires high numerical resolution, it is fairly clear that a major fraction of large-scale climate variability can be predicted in a much lower-dimensional phase space. Low-dimensional models can simulate and predict this fraction of climate variability, provided they are able to account for linear and nonlinear interactions between the modes representing large scales of climate dynamics, as well as their interactions with a much larger number of modes representing fast and small scales. This presentation will highlight several new applications by Multilayered Stochastic Modeling (MSM) [Kondrashov, Chekroun and Ghil, 2015] framework that has abundantly proven its efficiency in the modeling and real-time forecasting of various climate phenomena. MSM is a data-driven inverse modeling technique that aims to obtain a low-order nonlinear system of prognostic equations driven by stochastic forcing, and estimates both the dynamical operator and the properties of the driving noise from multivariate time series of observations or a high-end model's simulation. MSM leads to a system of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) involving hidden (auxiliary) variables of fast-small scales ranked by layers, which interact with the macroscopic (observed) variables of large-slow scales to model the dynamics of the latter, and thus convey memory effects. New MSM climate applications focus on development of computationally efficient low-order models by using data-adaptive decomposition methods that convey memory effects by time-embedding techniques, such as Multichannel Singular Spectrum Analysis (M-SSA) [Ghil et al. 2002] and recently developed Data-Adaptive Harmonic (DAH) decomposition method [Chekroun and Kondrashov, 2016]. In particular, new results by DAH-MSM modeling and prediction of Arctic Sea Ice, as well as decadal predictions of near-surface Earth temperatures will be presented.

Comprehensive Modeling and Analysis of Rotorcraft Variable Speed Propulsion System With Coupled Engine/Transmission/Rotor Dynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeSmidt, Hans A.; Smith, Edward C.; Bill, Robert C.; Wang, Kon-Well

2013-01-01

This project develops comprehensive modeling and simulation tools for analysis of variable rotor speed helicopter propulsion system dynamics. The Comprehensive Variable-Speed Rotorcraft Propulsion Modeling (CVSRPM) tool developed in this research is used to investigate coupled rotor/engine/fuel control/gearbox/shaft/clutch/flight control system dynamic interactions for several variable rotor speed mission scenarios. In this investigation, a prototypical two-speed Dual-Clutch Transmission (DCT) is proposed and designed to achieve 50 percent rotor speed variation. The comprehensive modeling tool developed in this study is utilized to analyze the two-speed shift response of both a conventional single rotor helicopter and a tiltrotor drive system. In the tiltrotor system, both a Parallel Shift Control (PSC) strategy and a Sequential Shift Control (SSC) strategy for constant and variable forward speed mission profiles are analyzed. Under the PSC strategy, selecting clutch shift-rate results in a design tradeoff between transient engine surge margins and clutch frictional power dissipation. In the case of SSC, clutch power dissipation is drastically reduced in exchange for the necessity to disengage one engine at a time which requires a multi-DCT drive system topology. In addition to comprehensive simulations, several sections are dedicated to detailed analysis of driveline subsystem components under variable speed operation. In particular an aeroelastic simulation of a stiff in-plane rotor using nonlinear quasi-steady blade element theory was conducted to investigate variable speed rotor dynamics. It was found that 2/rev and 4/rev flap and lag vibrations were significant during resonance crossings with 4/rev lagwise loads being directly transferred into drive-system torque disturbances. To capture the clutch engagement dynamics, a nonlinear stick-slip clutch torque model is developed. Also, a transient gas-turbine engine model based on first principles mean-line compressor and turbine approximations is developed. Finally an analysis of high frequency gear dynamics including the effect of tooth mesh stiffness variation under variable speed operation is conducted including experimental validation. Through exploring the interactions between the various subsystems, this investigation provides important insights into the continuing development of variable-speed rotorcraft propulsion systems.

Plate falling in a fluid: Regular and chaotic dynamics of finite-dimensional models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuznetsov, Sergey P.

2015-05-01

Results are reviewed concerning the planar problem of a plate falling in a resisting medium studied with models based on ordinary differential equations for a small number of dynamical variables. A unified model is introduced to conduct a comparative analysis of the dynamical behaviors of models of Kozlov, Tanabe-Kaneko, Belmonte-Eisenberg-Moses and Andersen-Pesavento-Wang using common dimensionless variables and parameters. It is shown that the overall structure of the parameter spaces for the different models manifests certain similarities caused by the same inherent symmetry and by the universal nature of the phenomena involved in nonlinear dynamics (fixed points, limit cycles, attractors, and bifurcations).

Parametric reduced models for the nonlinear Schrödinger equation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harlim, John; Li, Xiantao

2015-05-01

Reduced models for the (defocusing) nonlinear Schrödinger equation are developed. In particular, we develop reduced models that only involve the low-frequency modes given noisy observations of these modes. The ansatz of the reduced parametric models are obtained by employing a rational approximation and a colored-noise approximation, respectively, on the memory terms and the random noise of a generalized Langevin equation that is derived from the standard Mori-Zwanzig formalism. The parameters in the resulting reduced models are inferred from noisy observations with a recently developed ensemble Kalman filter-based parametrization method. The forecasting skill across different temperature regimes are verified by comparing the moments up to order four, a two-time correlation function statistics, and marginal densities of the coarse-grained variables.

Parametric reduced models for the nonlinear Schrödinger equation.

PubMed

Harlim, John; Li, Xiantao

2015-05-01

Reduced models for the (defocusing) nonlinear Schrödinger equation are developed. In particular, we develop reduced models that only involve the low-frequency modes given noisy observations of these modes. The ansatz of the reduced parametric models are obtained by employing a rational approximation and a colored-noise approximation, respectively, on the memory terms and the random noise of a generalized Langevin equation that is derived from the standard Mori-Zwanzig formalism. The parameters in the resulting reduced models are inferred from noisy observations with a recently developed ensemble Kalman filter-based parametrization method. The forecasting skill across different temperature regimes are verified by comparing the moments up to order four, a two-time correlation function statistics, and marginal densities of the coarse-grained variables.

Heat and mass transfer of Williamson nanofluid flow yield by an inclined Lorentz force over a nonlinear stretching sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, Mair; Malik, M. Y.; Salahuddin, T.; Hussian, Arif.

2018-03-01

The present analysis is devoted to explore the computational solution of the problem addressing the variable viscosity and inclined Lorentz force effects on Williamson nanofluid over a stretching sheet. Variable viscosity is assumed to vary as a linear function of temperature. The basic mathematical modelled problem i.e. system of PDE's is converted nonlinear into ODE's via applying suitable transformations. Computational solutions of the problem is also achieved via efficient numerical technique shooting. Characteristics of controlling parameters i.e. stretching index, inclined angle, Hartmann number, Weissenberg number, variable viscosity parameter, mixed convention parameter, Brownian motion parameter, Prandtl number, Lewis number, thermophoresis parameter and chemical reactive species on concentration, temperature and velocity gradient. Additionally, friction factor coefficient, Nusselt number and Sherwood number are describe with the help of graphics as well as tables verses flow controlling parameters.

Multi-time-scale X-ray reverberation mapping of accreting black holes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mastroserio, Guglielmo; Ingram, Adam; van der Klis, Michiel

2018-04-01

Accreting black holes show characteristic reflection features in their X-ray spectrum, including an iron Kα line, resulting from hard X-ray continuum photons illuminating the accretion disc. The reverberation lag resulting from the path-length difference between direct and reflected emission provides a powerful tool to probe the innermost regions around both stellar-mass and supermassive black holes. Here, we present for the first time a reverberation mapping formalism that enables modelling of energy-dependent time lags and variability amplitude for a wide range of variability time-scales, taking the complete information of the cross-spectrum into account. We use a pivoting power-law model to account for the spectral variability of the continuum that dominates over the reverberation lags for longer time-scale variability. We use an analytic approximation to self-consistently account for the non-linear effects caused by this continuum spectral variability, which have been ignored by all previous reverberation studies. We find that ignoring these non-linear effects can bias measurements of the reverberation lags, particularly at low frequencies. Since our model is analytic, we are able to fit simultaneously for a wide range of Fourier frequencies without prohibitive computational expense. We also introduce a formalism of fitting to real and imaginary parts of our cross-spectrum statistic, which naturally avoids some mistakes/inaccuracies previously common in the literature. We perform proof-of-principle fits to Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer data of Cygnus X-1.

A reduced successive quadratic programming strategy for errors-in-variables estimation.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tjoa, I.-B.; Biegler, L. T.; Carnegie-Mellon Univ.

Parameter estimation problems in process engineering represent a special class of nonlinear optimization problems, because the maximum likelihood structure of the objective function can be exploited. Within this class, the errors in variables method (EVM) is particularly interesting. Here we seek a weighted least-squares fit to the measurements with an underdetermined process model. Thus, both the number of variables and degrees of freedom available for optimization increase linearly with the number of data sets. Large optimization problems of this type can be particularly challenging and expensive to solve because, for general-purpose nonlinear programming (NLP) algorithms, the computational effort increases atmore » least quadratically with problem size. In this study we develop a tailored NLP strategy for EVM problems. The method is based on a reduced Hessian approach to successive quadratic programming (SQP), but with the decomposition performed separately for each data set. This leads to the elimination of all variables but the model parameters, which are determined by a QP coordination step. In this way the computational effort remains linear in the number of data sets. Moreover, unlike previous approaches to the EVM problem, global and superlinear properties of the SQP algorithm apply naturally. Also, the method directly incorporates inequality constraints on the model parameters (although not on the fitted variables). This approach is demonstrated on five example problems with up to 102 degrees of freedom. Compared to general-purpose NLP algorithms, large improvements in computational performance are observed.« less

Nonlinear spike-and-slab sparse coding for interpretable image encoding.

PubMed

Shelton, Jacquelyn A; Sheikh, Abdul-Saboor; Bornschein, Jörg; Sterne, Philip; Lücke, Jörg

2015-01-01

Sparse coding is a popular approach to model natural images but has faced two main challenges: modelling low-level image components (such as edge-like structures and their occlusions) and modelling varying pixel intensities. Traditionally, images are modelled as a sparse linear superposition of dictionary elements, where the probabilistic view of this problem is that the coefficients follow a Laplace or Cauchy prior distribution. We propose a novel model that instead uses a spike-and-slab prior and nonlinear combination of components. With the prior, our model can easily represent exact zeros for e.g. the absence of an image component, such as an edge, and a distribution over non-zero pixel intensities. With the nonlinearity (the nonlinear max combination rule), the idea is to target occlusions; dictionary elements correspond to image components that can occlude each other. There are major consequences of the model assumptions made by both (non)linear approaches, thus the main goal of this paper is to isolate and highlight differences between them. Parameter optimization is analytically and computationally intractable in our model, thus as a main contribution we design an exact Gibbs sampler for efficient inference which we can apply to higher dimensional data using latent variable preselection. Results on natural and artificial occlusion-rich data with controlled forms of sparse structure show that our model can extract a sparse set of edge-like components that closely match the generating process, which we refer to as interpretable components. Furthermore, the sparseness of the solution closely follows the ground-truth number of components/edges in the images. The linear model did not learn such edge-like components with any level of sparsity. This suggests that our model can adaptively well-approximate and characterize the meaningful generation process.

Nonlinear Spike-And-Slab Sparse Coding for Interpretable Image Encoding

PubMed Central

Shelton, Jacquelyn A.; Sheikh, Abdul-Saboor; Bornschein, Jörg; Sterne, Philip; Lücke, Jörg

2015-01-01

Sparse coding is a popular approach to model natural images but has faced two main challenges: modelling low-level image components (such as edge-like structures and their occlusions) and modelling varying pixel intensities. Traditionally, images are modelled as a sparse linear superposition of dictionary elements, where the probabilistic view of this problem is that the coefficients follow a Laplace or Cauchy prior distribution. We propose a novel model that instead uses a spike-and-slab prior and nonlinear combination of components. With the prior, our model can easily represent exact zeros for e.g. the absence of an image component, such as an edge, and a distribution over non-zero pixel intensities. With the nonlinearity (the nonlinear max combination rule), the idea is to target occlusions; dictionary elements correspond to image components that can occlude each other. There are major consequences of the model assumptions made by both (non)linear approaches, thus the main goal of this paper is to isolate and highlight differences between them. Parameter optimization is analytically and computationally intractable in our model, thus as a main contribution we design an exact Gibbs sampler for efficient inference which we can apply to higher dimensional data using latent variable preselection. Results on natural and artificial occlusion-rich data with controlled forms of sparse structure show that our model can extract a sparse set of edge-like components that closely match the generating process, which we refer to as interpretable components. Furthermore, the sparseness of the solution closely follows the ground-truth number of components/edges in the images. The linear model did not learn such edge-like components with any level of sparsity. This suggests that our model can adaptively well-approximate and characterize the meaningful generation process. PMID:25954947

Quantum information processing with a travelling wave of light

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serikawa, Takahiro; Shiozawa, Yu; Ogawa, Hisashi; Takanashi, Naoto; Takeda, Shuntaro; Yoshikawa, Jun-ichi; Furusawa, Akira

2018-02-01

We exploit quantum information processing on a traveling wave of light, expecting emancipation from thermal noise, easy coupling to fiber communication, and potentially high operation speed. Although optical memories are technically challenging, we have an alternative approach to apply multi-step operations on traveling light, that is, continuous-variable one-way computation. So far our achievement includes generation of a one-million-mode entangled chain in time-domain, mode engineering of nonlinear resource states, and real-time nonlinear feedforward. Although they are implemented with free space optics, we are also investigating photonic integration and performed quantum teleportation with a passive liner waveguide chip as a demonstration of entangling, measurement, and feedforward. We also suggest a loop-based architecture as another model of continuous-variable computing.

Modeling the zonal disintegration of rocks near deep level tunnels by gradient internal variable continuous phase transition theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haoxiang, Chen; Qi, Chengzhi; Peng, Liu; Kairui, Li; Aifantis, Elias C.

2015-12-01

The occurrence of alternating damage zones surrounding underground openings (commonly known as zonal disintegration) is treated as a "far from thermodynamic equilibrium" dynamical process or a nonlinear continuous phase transition phenomenon. The approach of internal variable gradient theory with diffusive transport, which may be viewed as a subclass of Landau's phase transition theory, is adopted. The order parameter is identified with an irreversible strain quantity, the gradient of which enters into the expression for the free energy of the rock system. The gradient term stabilizes the material behavior in the post-softening regime, where zonal disintegration occurs. The results of a simplified linearized analysis are confirmed by the numerical solution of the nonlinear problem.

Asymptotic Properties of Induced Maximum Likelihood Estimates of Nonlinear Models for Item Response Variables: The Finite-Generic-Item-Pool Case.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jones, Douglas H.

The progress of modern mental test theory depends very much on the techniques of maximum likelihood estimation, and many popular applications make use of likelihoods induced by logistic item response models. While, in reality, item responses are nonreplicate within a single examinee and the logistic models are only ideal, practitioners make…

Application of an Ensemble Smoother to Precipitation Assimilation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhang, Sara; Zupanski, Dusanka; Hou, Arthur; Zupanski, Milija

2008-01-01

Assimilation of precipitation in a global modeling system poses a special challenge in that the observation operators for precipitation processes are highly nonlinear. In the variational approach, substantial development work and model simplifications are required to include precipitation-related physical processes in the tangent linear model and its adjoint. An ensemble based data assimilation algorithm "Maximum Likelihood Ensemble Smoother (MLES)" has been developed to explore the ensemble representation of the precipitation observation operator with nonlinear convection and large-scale moist physics. An ensemble assimilation system based on the NASA GEOS-5 GCM has been constructed to assimilate satellite precipitation data within the MLES framework. The configuration of the smoother takes the time dimension into account for the relationship between state variables and observable rainfall. The full nonlinear forward model ensembles are used to represent components involving the observation operator and its transpose. Several assimilation experiments using satellite precipitation observations have been carried out to investigate the effectiveness of the ensemble representation of the nonlinear observation operator and the data impact of assimilating rain retrievals from the TMI and SSM/I sensors. Preliminary results show that this ensemble assimilation approach is capable of extracting information from nonlinear observations to improve the analysis and forecast if ensemble size is adequate, and a suitable localization scheme is applied. In addition to a dynamically consistent precipitation analysis, the assimilation system produces a statistical estimate of the analysis uncertainty.

Modelization of highly nonlinear waves in coastal regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gouin, Maïté; Ducrozet, Guillaume; Ferrant, Pierre

2015-04-01

The proposed work deals with the development of a highly non-linear model for water wave propagation in coastal regions. The accurate modelization of surface gravity waves is of major interest in ocean engineering, especially in the field of marine renewable energy. These marine structures are intended to be settled in coastal regions where the effect of variable bathymetry may be significant on local wave conditions. This study presents a numerical model for the wave propagation with complex bathymetry. It is based on High-Order Spectral (HOS) method, initially limited to the propagation of non-linear wave fields over flat bottom. Such a model has been developed and validated at the LHEEA Lab. (Ecole Centrale Nantes) over the past few years and the current developments will enlarge its application range. This new numerical model will keep the interesting numerical properties of the original pseudo-spectral approach (convergence, efficiency with the use of FFTs, …) and enable the possibility to propagate highly non-linear wave fields over long time and large distance. Different validations will be provided in addition to the presentation of the method. At first, Bragg reflection will be studied with the proposed approach. If the Bragg condition is satisfied, the reflected wave generated by a sinusoidal bottom patch should be amplified as a result of resonant quadratic interactions between incident wave and bottom. Comparisons will be provided with experiments and reference solutions. Then, the method will be used to consider the transformation of a non-linear monochromatic wave as it propagates up and over a submerged bar. As the waves travel up the front slope of the bar, it steepens and high harmonics are generated due to non-linear interactions. Comparisons with experimental data will be provided. The different test cases will assess the accuracy and efficiency of the method proposed.

Nonlinear Friction Compensation of Ball Screw Driven Stage Based on Variable Natural Length Spring Model and Disturbance Observer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asaumi, Hiroyoshi; Fujimoto, Hiroshi

Ball screw driven stages are used for industrial equipments such as machine tools and semiconductor equipments. Fast and precise positioning is necessary to enhance productivity and microfabrication technology of the system. The rolling friction of the ball screw driven stage deteriorate the positioning performance. Therefore, the control system based on the friction model is necessary. In this paper, we propose variable natural length spring model (VNLS model) as the friction model. VNLS model is simple and easy to implement as friction controller. Next, we propose multi variable natural length spring model (MVNLS model) as the friction model. MVNLS model can represent friction characteristic of the stage precisely. Moreover, the control system based on MVNLS model and disturbance observer is proposed. Finally, the simulation results and experimental results show the advantages of the proposed method.

Multiresponse semiparametric regression for modelling the effect of regional socio-economic variables on the use of information technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wibowo, Wahyu; Wene, Chatrien; Budiantara, I. Nyoman; Permatasari, Erma Oktania

2017-03-01

Multiresponse semiparametric regression is simultaneous equation regression model and fusion of parametric and nonparametric model. The regression model comprise several models and each model has two components, parametric and nonparametric. The used model has linear function as parametric and polynomial truncated spline as nonparametric component. The model can handle both linearity and nonlinearity relationship between response and the sets of predictor variables. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the application of the regression model for modeling of effect of regional socio-economic on use of information technology. More specific, the response variables are percentage of households has access to internet and percentage of households has personal computer. Then, predictor variables are percentage of literacy people, percentage of electrification and percentage of economic growth. Based on identification of the relationship between response and predictor variable, economic growth is treated as nonparametric predictor and the others are parametric predictors. The result shows that the multiresponse semiparametric regression can be applied well as indicate by the high coefficient determination, 90 percent.

Nonlinear Waves In A Stenosed Elastic Tube Filled With Viscous Fluid: Forced Perturbed Korteweg-De Vries Equation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaik*, Tay Kim; Demiray, Hilmi; Tiong, Ong Chee

In the present work, treating the artery as a prestressed thin-walled and long circularly cylindrical elastic tube with a mild symmetrical stenosis and the blood as an incompressible Newtonian fluid, we have studied the pro pagation of weakly nonlinear waves in such a composite medium, in the long wave approximation, by use of the reductive perturbation method. By intro ducing a set of stretched coordinates suitable for the boundary value type of problems and expanding the field variables into asymptotic series of the small-ness parameter of nonlinearity and dispersion, we obtained a set of nonlinear differential equations governing the terms at various order. By solving these nonlinear differential equations, we obtained the forced perturbed Korteweg-de Vries equation with variable coefficient as the nonlinear evolution equation. By use of the coordinate transformation, it is shown that this type of nonlinear evolution equation admits a progressive wave solution with variable wave speed.

Impact of Seawater Nonlinearities on Nordic Seas Circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Helber, R. W.; Wallcraft, A. J.; Shriver, J. F.

2017-12-01

The Nordic Seas (Greenland, Iceland, and Norwegian Seas) form an ocean basin important for Arctic-mid-latitude climate linkages. Cold fresh water from the Arctic Ocean and warm salty water from the North Atlantic Ocean meet in the Nordic Seas, where a delicate balance between temperature and salinity variability results in deep water formation. Seawater non-linearities are stronger at low temperatures and salinities making high-latitude oceans highly subject to thermbaricity and cabbeling. This presentation highlights and quantifies the impact of seawater non-linearities on the Nordic Seas circulation. We use two layered ocean circulation models, the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYOCM) and the Modular Ocean Model version 6 (MOM6), that enable accurate representation of processes along and across density or neutral density surfaces. Different equations-of-state and vertical coordinates are evaluated to clarify the impact of seawater non-linearities. Present Navy systems, however, do not capture some features in the Nrodic Seas vertical structure. For example, observations from the Greenland Sea reveal a subsurface temperature maximum that deepens from approximately 1500 m during 1998 to 1800 m during 2005. We demonstrate that in terms of density, salinity is the largest source of error in Nordic Seas Navy forecasts, regional scale models can represent mesoscale features driven by thermobaricity, vertical coordinates are a critical issue in Nordic Sea circulation modeling.

Self-organizing biochemical cycle in dynamic feedback with soil structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vasilyeva, Nadezda; Vladimirov, Artem; Smirnov, Alexander; Matveev, Sergey; Tyrtyshnikov, Evgeniy; Yudina, Anna; Milanovskiy, Evgeniy; Shein, Evgeniy

2016-04-01

In the present study we perform bifurcation analysis of a physically-based mathematical model of self-organized structures in soil (Vasilyeva et al., 2015). The state variables in this model included microbial biomass, two organic matter types, oxygen, carbon dioxide, water content and capillary pore size. According to our previous experimental studies, organic matter affinity to water is an important property affecting soil structure. Therefore, organic matter wettability was taken as principle distinction between organic matter types in this model. It considers general known biological feedbacks with soil physical properties formulated as a system of parabolic type non-linear partial differential equations with elements of discrete modeling for water and pore formation. The model shows complex behavior, involving emergence of temporal and spatial irregular auto-oscillations from initially homogeneous distributions. The energy of external impact on a system was defined by a constant oxygen level on the boundary. Non-linear as opposed to linear oxygen diffusion gives possibility of modeling anaerobic micro-zones formation (organic matter conservation mechanism). For the current study we also introduced population competition of three different types of microorganisms according to their mobility/feeding (diffusive, moving and fungal growth). The strongly non-linear system was solved and parameterized by time-optimized algorithm combining explicit and implicit (matrix form of Thomas algorithm) methods considering the time for execution of the evaluated time-step according to accuracy control. The integral flux of the CO2 state variable was used as a macroscopic parameter to describe system as a whole and validation was carried out on temperature series of moisture dependence for soil heterotrophic respiration data. Thus, soil heterotrophic respiration can be naturally modeled as an integral result of complex dynamics on microscale, arising from biological processes formulated as a sum of state variables products, with no need to introduce any saturation functions, such as Mikhaelis-Menten type kinetics, inside the model. Analyzed dynamic soil model is being further developed to describe soil structure formation and its effect on organic matter decomposition at macro-scale, to predict changes with external perturbations. To link micro- and macro-scales we additionally model soil particles aggregation process. The results from local biochemical soil organic matter cycle serve as inputs to aggregation process, while the output aggregate size distributions define physical properties in the soil profile, these in turn serve as dynamic parameters in local biochemical cycles. The additional formulation is a system of non-linear ordinary differential equations, including Smoluchowski-type equations for aggregation and reaction kinetics equations for coagulation/adsorption/adhesion processes. Vasilyeva N.A., Ingtem J.G., Silaev D.A. Nonlinear dynamical model of microbial growth in soil medium. Computational Mathematics and Modeling, vol. 49, p.31-44, 2015 (in Russian). English version is expected in corresponding vol.27, issue 2, 2016.

Nonlinear effects on sound propagation through high subsonic Mach number flows in variable area ducts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Callegari, A. J.

1979-01-01

A nonlinear theory for sound propagation in variable area ducts carrying a nearly sonic flow is presented. Linear acoustic theory is shown to be singular and the detailed nature of the singularity is used to develop the correct nonlinear theory. The theory is based on a quasi-one dimensional model. It is derived by the method of matched asymptotic expansions. In a nearly chocked flow, the theory indicates the following processes to be acting: a transonic trapping of upstream propagating sound causing an intensification of this sound in the throat region of the duct; generation of superharmonics and an acoustic streaming effect; development of shocks in the acoustic quantities near the throat. Several specific problems are solved analytically and numerical parameter studies are carried out. Results indicate that appreciable acoustic power is shifted to higher harmonics as shocked conditions are approached. The effect of the throat Mach number on the attenuation of upstream propagating sound excited by a fixed source is also determined.

Nonlinear image registration with bidirectional metric and reciprocal regularization

PubMed Central

Ying, Shihui; Li, Dan; Xiao, Bin; Peng, Yaxin; Du, Shaoyi; Xu, Meifeng

2017-01-01

Nonlinear registration is an important technique to align two different images and widely applied in medical image analysis. In this paper, we develop a novel nonlinear registration framework based on the diffeomorphic demons, where a reciprocal regularizer is introduced to assume that the deformation between two images is an exact diffeomorphism. In detail, first, we adopt a bidirectional metric to improve the symmetry of the energy functional, whose variables are two reciprocal deformations. Secondly, we slack these two deformations into two independent variables and introduce a reciprocal regularizer to assure the deformations being the exact diffeomorphism. Then, we utilize an alternating iterative strategy to decouple the model into two minimizing subproblems, where a new closed form for the approximate velocity of deformation is calculated. Finally, we compare our proposed algorithm on two data sets of real brain MR images with two relative and conventional methods. The results validate that our proposed method improves accuracy and robustness of registration, as well as the gained bidirectional deformations are actually reciprocal. PMID:28231342

Stability of Nonlinear Principal Components Analysis: An Empirical Study Using the Balanced Bootstrap

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Linting, Marielle; Meulman, Jacqueline J.; Groenen, Patrick J. F.; van der Kooij, Anita J.

2007-01-01

Principal components analysis (PCA) is used to explore the structure of data sets containing linearly related numeric variables. Alternatively, nonlinear PCA can handle possibly nonlinearly related numeric as well as nonnumeric variables. For linear PCA, the stability of its solution can be established under the assumption of multivariate…

Nonlinear dynamics of the CAM circadian rhythm in response to environmental forcing.

PubMed

Hartzell, Samantha; Bartlett, Mark S; Virgin, Lawrence; Porporato, Amilcare

2015-03-07

Crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) photosynthesis functions as an endogenous circadian rhythm coupled to external environmental forcings of energy and water availability. This paper explores the nonlinear dynamics of a new CAM photosynthesis model (Bartlett et al., 2014) and investigates the responses of CAM plant carbon assimilation to different combinations of environmental conditions. The CAM model (Bartlett et al., 2014) consists of a Calvin cycle typical of C3 plants coupled to an oscillator of the type employed in the Van der Pol and FitzHugh-Nagumo systems. This coupled system is a function of environmental variables including leaf temperature, leaf moisture potential, and irradiance. Here, we explore the qualitative response of the system and the expected carbon assimilation under constant and periodically forced environmental conditions. The model results show how the diurnal evolution of these variables entrains the CAM cycle with prevailing environmental conditions. While constant environmental conditions generate either steady-state or periodically oscillating responses in malic acid uptake and release, forcing the CAM system with periodic daily fluctuations in light exposure and leaf temperature results in quasi-periodicity and possible chaos for certain ranges of these variables. This analysis is a first step in quantifying changes in CAM plant productivity with variables such as the mean temperature, daily temperature range, irradiance, and leaf moisture potential. Results may also be used to inform model parametrization based on the observed fluctuating regime. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A new polytopic approach for the unknown input functional observer design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bezzaoucha, Souad; Voos, Holger; Darouach, Mohamed

2018-03-01

In this paper, a constructive procedure to design Functional Unknown Input Observers for nonlinear continuous time systems is proposed under the Polytopic Takagi-Sugeno framework. An equivalent representation for the nonlinear model is achieved using the sector nonlinearity transformation. Applying the Lyapunov theory and the ? attenuation, linear matrix inequalities conditions are deduced which are solved for feasibility to obtain the observer design matrices. To cope with the effect of unknown inputs, classical approach of decoupling the unknown input for the linear case is used. Both algebraic and solver-based solutions are proposed (relaxed conditions). Necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of the functional polytopic observer are given. For both approaches, the general and particular cases (measurable premise variables, full state estimation with full and reduced order cases) are considered and it is shown that the proposed conditions correspond to the one presented for standard linear case. To illustrate the proposed theoretical results, detailed numerical simulations are presented for a Quadrotor Aerial Robots Landing and a Waste Water Treatment Plant. Both systems are highly nonlinear and represented in a T-S polytopic form with unmeasurable premise variables and unknown inputs.

Metadynamics in the conformational space nonlinearly dimensionally reduced by Isomap

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spiwok, Vojtěch; Králová, Blanka

2011-12-01

Atomic motions in molecules are not linear. This infers that nonlinear dimensionality reduction methods can outperform linear ones in analysis of collective atomic motions. In addition, nonlinear collective motions can be used as potentially efficient guides for biased simulation techniques. Here we present a simulation with a bias potential acting in the directions of collective motions determined by a nonlinear dimensionality reduction method. Ad hoc generated conformations of trans,trans-1,2,4-trifluorocyclooctane were analyzed by Isomap method to map these 72-dimensional coordinates to three dimensions, as described by Brown and co-workers [J. Chem. Phys. 129, 064118 (2008)]. Metadynamics employing the three-dimensional embeddings as collective variables was applied to explore all relevant conformations of the studied system and to calculate its conformational free energy surface. The method sampled all relevant conformations (boat, boat-chair, and crown) and corresponding transition structures inaccessible by an unbiased simulation. This scheme allows to use essentially any parameter of the system as a collective variable in biased simulations. Moreover, the scheme we used for mapping out-of-sample conformations from the 72D to 3D space can be used as a general purpose mapping for dimensionality reduction, beyond the context of molecular modeling.

Forecasting daily source air quality using multivariate statistical analysis and radial basis function networks.

PubMed

Sun, Gang; Hoff, Steven J; Zelle, Brian C; Nelson, Minda A

2008-12-01

It is vital to forecast gas and particle matter concentrations and emission rates (GPCER) from livestock production facilities to assess the impact of airborne pollutants on human health, ecological environment, and global warming. Modeling source air quality is a complex process because of abundant nonlinear interactions between GPCER and other factors. The objective of this study was to introduce statistical methods and radial basis function (RBF) neural network to predict daily source air quality in Iowa swine deep-pit finishing buildings. The results show that four variables (outdoor and indoor temperature, animal units, and ventilation rates) were identified as relative important model inputs using statistical methods. It can be further demonstrated that only two factors, the environment factor and the animal factor, were capable of explaining more than 94% of the total variability after performing principal component analysis. The introduction of fewer uncorrelated variables to the neural network would result in the reduction of the model structure complexity, minimize computation cost, and eliminate model overfitting problems. The obtained results of RBF network prediction were in good agreement with the actual measurements, with values of the correlation coefficient between 0.741 and 0.995 and very low values of systemic performance indexes for all the models. The good results indicated the RBF network could be trained to model these highly nonlinear relationships. Thus, the RBF neural network technology combined with multivariate statistical methods is a promising tool for air pollutant emissions modeling.

Hybrid modeling of spatial continuity for application to numerical inverse problems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Friedel, Michael J.; Iwashita, Fabio

2013-01-01

A novel two-step modeling approach is presented to obtain optimal starting values and geostatistical constraints for numerical inverse problems otherwise characterized by spatially-limited field data. First, a type of unsupervised neural network, called the self-organizing map (SOM), is trained to recognize nonlinear relations among environmental variables (covariates) occurring at various scales. The values of these variables are then estimated at random locations across the model domain by iterative minimization of SOM topographic error vectors. Cross-validation is used to ensure unbiasedness and compute prediction uncertainty for select subsets of the data. Second, analytical functions are fit to experimental variograms derived from original plus resampled SOM estimates producing model variograms. Sequential Gaussian simulation is used to evaluate spatial uncertainty associated with the analytical functions and probable range for constraining variables. The hybrid modeling of spatial continuity is demonstrated using spatially-limited hydrologic measurements at different scales in Brazil: (1) physical soil properties (sand, silt, clay, hydraulic conductivity) in the 42 km2 Vargem de Caldas basin; (2) well yield and electrical conductivity of groundwater in the 132 km2 fractured crystalline aquifer; and (3) specific capacity, hydraulic head, and major ions in a 100,000 km2 transboundary fractured-basalt aquifer. These results illustrate the benefits of exploiting nonlinear relations among sparse and disparate data sets for modeling spatial continuity, but the actual application of these spatial data to improve numerical inverse modeling requires testing.

Dynamic performance and mechanical model analysis of a shear thickening fluid damper

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Qian; He, Yonghui; Yao, Hongliang; Wen, Bangchun

2018-07-01

This paper presents an experimental study of the dynamic performance of a self-developed shear thickening fluid (STF) damper and its mechanical model was proposed by nonlinear fitting. First, STF samples with different mass fraction and dispersion medium were fabricated by nano fumed silica and polyethylene glycol, and its rheological properties were investigated by a rheometer. Second, a smart STF damper was developed and manufactured. Its dynamic properties were experimentally investigated by establishing a vibration test bench, and results indicated that the STF damper can output variable damping force by controlling the loading frequency, loading amplitude and fluid gap. Third, the Bouc–Wen model was proposed to address the dynamic properties of STF damper, and mechanical model analysis was carried out by comparing several fitting functions. It verified that the Bouc–Wen hysteresis model can be better used to describe the nonlinear stiffness, nonlinear damping and rate-dependence characteristics of the STF damper. All these investigations can offer an effective guidance for further theoretical and application study of the smart STF damper in energy dissipation fields.

Comparative Analysis on Nonlinear Models for Ron Gasoline Blending Using Neural Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aguilera, R. Carreño; Yu, Wen; Rodríguez, J. C. Tovar; Mosqueda, M. Elena Acevedo; Ortiz, M. Patiño; Juarez, J. J. Medel; Bautista, D. Pacheco

The blending process always being a nonlinear process is difficult to modeling, since it may change significantly depending on the components and the process variables of each refinery. Different components can be blended depending on the existing stock, and the chemical characteristics of each component are changing dynamically, they all are blended until getting the expected specification in different properties required by the customer. One of the most relevant properties is the Octane, which is difficult to control in line (without the component storage). Since each refinery process is quite different, a generic gasoline blending model is not useful when a blending in line wants to be done in a specific process. A mathematical gasoline blending model is presented in this paper for a given process described in state space as a basic gasoline blending process description. The objective is to adjust the parameters allowing the blending gasoline model to describe a signal in its trajectory, representing in neural networks extreme learning machine method and also for nonlinear autoregressive-moving average (NARMA) in neural networks method, such that a comparative work be developed.

Combined genetic algorithm and multiple linear regression (GA-MLR) optimizer: Application to multi-exponential fluorescence decay surface.

PubMed

Fisz, Jacek J

2006-12-07

The optimization approach based on the genetic algorithm (GA) combined with multiple linear regression (MLR) method, is discussed. The GA-MLR optimizer is designed for the nonlinear least-squares problems in which the model functions are linear combinations of nonlinear functions. GA optimizes the nonlinear parameters, and the linear parameters are calculated from MLR. GA-MLR is an intuitive optimization approach and it exploits all advantages of the genetic algorithm technique. This optimization method results from an appropriate combination of two well-known optimization methods. The MLR method is embedded in the GA optimizer and linear and nonlinear model parameters are optimized in parallel. The MLR method is the only one strictly mathematical "tool" involved in GA-MLR. The GA-MLR approach simplifies and accelerates considerably the optimization process because the linear parameters are not the fitted ones. Its properties are exemplified by the analysis of the kinetic biexponential fluorescence decay surface corresponding to a two-excited-state interconversion process. A short discussion of the variable projection (VP) algorithm, designed for the same class of the optimization problems, is presented. VP is a very advanced mathematical formalism that involves the methods of nonlinear functionals, algebra of linear projectors, and the formalism of Fréchet derivatives and pseudo-inverses. Additional explanatory comments are added on the application of recently introduced the GA-NR optimizer to simultaneous recovery of linear and weakly nonlinear parameters occurring in the same optimization problem together with nonlinear parameters. The GA-NR optimizer combines the GA method with the NR method, in which the minimum-value condition for the quadratic approximation to chi(2), obtained from the Taylor series expansion of chi(2), is recovered by means of the Newton-Raphson algorithm. The application of the GA-NR optimizer to model functions which are multi-linear combinations of nonlinear functions, is indicated. The VP algorithm does not distinguish the weakly nonlinear parameters from the nonlinear ones and it does not apply to the model functions which are multi-linear combinations of nonlinear functions.

Modeling Nonlinear Site Response Uncertainty in Broadband Ground Motion Simulations for the Los Angeles Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Assimaki, D.; Li, W.; Steidl, J. M.; Schmedes, J.

2007-12-01

The assessment of strong motion site response is of great significance, both for mitigating seismic hazard and for performing detailed analyses of earthquake source characteristics. There currently exists, however, large degree of uncertainty concerning the mathematical model to be employed for the computationally efficient evaluation of local site effects, and the site investigation program necessary to evaluate the nonlinear input model parameters and ensure cost-effective predictions; and while site response observations may provide critical constraints on interpretation methods, the lack of a statistically significant number of in-situ strong motion records prohibits statistical analyses to be conducted and uncertainties to be quantified based entirely on field data. In this paper, we combine downhole observations and broadband ground motion synthetics for characteristic site conditions the Los Angeles Basin, and investigate the variability in ground motion estimation introduced by the site response assessment methodology. In particular, site-specific regional velocity and attenuation structures are initially compiled using near-surface geotechnical data collected at downhole geotechnical arrays, inverse low-strain velocity and attenuation profiles at these sites obtained by inversion of weak motion records and the crustal velocity structure at the corresponding locations obtained from the Southern California Earthquake Centre Community Velocity Model. Successively, broadband ground motions are simulated by means of a hybrid low/high-frequency finite source model with correlated random parameters for rupture scenaria of weak, medium and large magnitude events (M =3.5-7.5). Observed estimates of site response at the stations of interest are first compared to the ensemble of approximate and incremental nonlinear site response models. Parametric studies are next conducted for each fixed magnitude (fault geometry) scenario by varying the source-to-site distance and source parameters for the ensemble of site conditions. Elastic, equivalent linear and nonlinear simulations are implemented for the deterministic description of the base-model velocity and attenuation structures and nonlinear soil properties, to examine the variability in ground motion predictions as a function of ground motion amplitude and frequency content, and nonlinear site response methodology. The modeling site response uncertainty introduced in the broadband ground motion predictions is reported by means of the COV of site amplification, defined as the ratio of the predicted peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration (SA) at short and long periods to the corresponding intensity measure on the ground surface of a typical NEHRP BC boundary profile (Vs30=760m/s), for the ensemble of approximate and incremental nonlinear models implemented. A frequency index is developed to describe the frequency content of incident ground motion. In conjunction with the rock-outcrop acceleration level, this index is used to identify the site and ground motion conditions where incremental nonlinear analyses should be employed in lieu of approximate methodologies. Finally, the effects of modeling uncertainty in ground response analysis is evaluated in the estimation of site amplification factors, which are successively compared to recently published factors of the New Generation Attenuation Relations (NGA) and the currently employed Seismic Code Provisions (NEHRP).

Nonlinear information fusion algorithms for data-efficient multi-fidelity modelling.

PubMed

Perdikaris, P; Raissi, M; Damianou, A; Lawrence, N D; Karniadakis, G E

2017-02-01

Multi-fidelity modelling enables accurate inference of quantities of interest by synergistically combining realizations of low-cost/low-fidelity models with a small set of high-fidelity observations. This is particularly effective when the low- and high-fidelity models exhibit strong correlations, and can lead to significant computational gains over approaches that solely rely on high-fidelity models. However, in many cases of practical interest, low-fidelity models can only be well correlated to their high-fidelity counterparts for a specific range of input parameters, and potentially return wrong trends and erroneous predictions if probed outside of their validity regime. Here we put forth a probabilistic framework based on Gaussian process regression and nonlinear autoregressive schemes that is capable of learning complex nonlinear and space-dependent cross-correlations between models of variable fidelity, and can effectively safeguard against low-fidelity models that provide wrong trends. This introduces a new class of multi-fidelity information fusion algorithms that provide a fundamental extension to the existing linear autoregressive methodologies, while still maintaining the same algorithmic complexity and overall computational cost. The performance of the proposed methods is tested in several benchmark problems involving both synthetic and real multi-fidelity datasets from computational fluid dynamics simulations.

A heuristic neural network initialization scheme for modeling nonlinear functions in engineering mechanics: continuous development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pei, Jin-Song; Mai, Eric C.

2007-04-01

This paper introduces a continuous effort towards the development of a heuristic initialization methodology for constructing multilayer feedforward neural networks to model nonlinear functions. In this and previous studies that this work is built upon, including the one presented at SPIE 2006, the authors do not presume to provide a universal method to approximate arbitrary functions, rather the focus is given to the development of a rational and unambiguous initialization procedure that applies to the approximation of nonlinear functions in the specific domain of engineering mechanics. The applications of this exploratory work can be numerous including those associated with potential correlation and interpretation of the inner workings of neural networks, such as damage detection. The goal of this study is fulfilled by utilizing the governing physics and mathematics of nonlinear functions and the strength of the sigmoidal basis function. A step-by-step graphical procedure utilizing a few neural network prototypes as "templates" to approximate commonly seen memoryless nonlinear functions of one or two variables is further developed in this study. Decomposition of complex nonlinear functions into a summation of some simpler nonlinear functions is utilized to exploit this prototype-based initialization methodology. Training examples are presented to demonstrate the rationality and effciency of the proposed methodology when compared with the popular Nguyen-Widrow initialization algorithm. Future work is also identfied.

Thermal runaway and microwave heating in thin cylindrical domains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ward, Michael J.

2002-04-01

The behaviour of the solution to two nonlinear heating problems in a thin cylinder of revolution of variable cross-sectional area is analysed using asymptotic and numerical methods. The first problem is to calculate the fold point, corresponding to the onset of thermal runaway, for a steady-state nonlinear elliptic equation that arises in combustion theory. In the limit of thin cylindrical domains, it is shown that the onset of thermal runaway can be delayed when a circular cylindrical domain is perturbed into a dumbell shape. Numerical values for the fold point for different domain shapes are obtained asymptotically and numerically. The second problem that is analysed is a nonlinear parabolic equation modelling the microwave heating of a ceramic cylinder by a known electric field. The basic model in a thin circular cylindrical domain was analysed in Booty & Kriegsmann (Meth. Appl. Anal. 4 (1994) p. 403). Their analysis is extended to treat thin cylindrical domains of variable cross-section. It is shown that the steady-state and dynamic behaviours of localized regions of high temperature, called hot-spots, depend on a competition between the maxima of the electric field and the maximum deformation of the circular cylinder. For a dumbell-shaped region it is shown that two disconnected hot-spot regions can occur. Depending on the parameters in the model, these regions, ultimately, either merge as time increases or else remain as disconnected regions for all time.

An exploration of viscosity models in the realm of kinetic theory of liquids originated fluids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hussain, Azad; Ghafoor, Saadia; Malik, M. Y.; Jamal, Sarmad

The preeminent perspective of this article is to study flow of an Eyring Powell fluid model past a penetrable plate. To find the effects of variable viscosity on fluid model, continuity, momentum and energy equations are elaborated. Here, viscosity is taken as function of temperature. To understand the phenomenon, Reynold and Vogel models of variable viscosity are incorporated. The highly non-linear partial differential equations are transfigured into ordinary differential equations with the help of suitable similarity transformations. The numerical solution of the problem is presented. Graphs are plotted to visualize the behavior of pertinent parameters on the velocity and temperature profiles.

Linear and nonlinear winter atmospheric responses to extreme phases of low frequency Pacific sea surface temperature variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Dandan; Wu, Qigang; Hu, Aixue; Yao, Yonghong; Liu, Shizuo; Schroeder, Steven R.; Yang, Fucheng

2018-02-01

This study examines Northern Hemisphere winter (DJFM) atmospheric responses to opposite strong phases of interdecadal (low frequency, LF) Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) forcing, which resembles El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on a longer time scale, in observations and GFDL and CAM4 model simulations. Over the Pacific-North America (PNA) sector, linear observed responses of 500-hPa height (Z500) anomalies resemble the PNA teleconnection pattern, but show a PNA-like nonlinear response because of a westward Z500 shift in the negative (LF-) relative to the positive LF (LF+) phase. Significant extratropical linear responses include a North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-like Z500 anomaly, a dipole-like Z500 anomaly over northern Eurasia associated with warming over mid-high latitude Eurasia, and a Southern Annular anomaly pattern associated with warming in southern land areas. Significant nonlinear Z500 responses also include a NAO-like anomaly pattern. Models forced by LF+ and LF- SST anomalies reproduce many aspects of observed linear and nonlinear responses over the Pacific-North America sector, and linear responses over southern land, but not in the North Atlantic-European sector and Eurasia. Both models simulate PNA-like linear responses in the North Pacific-North America region similar to observed, but show larger PNA-like LF+ responses, resulting in a PNA nonlinear response. The nonlinear PNA responses result from both nonlinear western tropical Pacific rainfall changes and extratropical transient eddy feedbacks. With LF tropical Pacific forcing only (LFTP+ and LFTP-, climatological SST elsewhere), CAM4 simulates a significant NAO response to LFTP-, including a linear negative and nonlinear positive NAO response.

Nonlinear static and dynamic analysis of beam structures using fully intrinsic equations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sotoudeh, Zahra

2011-07-01

Beams are structural members with one dimension much larger than the other two. Examples of beams include propeller blades, helicopter rotor blades, and high aspect-ratio aircraft wings in aerospace engineering; shafts and wind turbine blades in mechanical engineering; towers, highways and bridges in civil engineering; and DNA modeling in biomedical engineering. Beam analysis includes two sets of equations: a generally linear two-dimensional problem over the cross-sectional plane and a nonlinear, global one-dimensional analysis. This research work deals with a relatively new set of equations for one-dimensional beam analysis, namely the so-called fully intrinsic equations. Fully intrinsic equations comprise a set of geometrically exact, nonlinear, first-order partial differential equations that is suitable for analyzing initially curved and twisted anisotropic beams. A fully intrinsic formulation is devoid of displacement and rotation variables, making it especially attractive because of the absence of singularities, infinite-degree nonlinearities, and other undesirable features associated with finite rotation variables. In spite of the advantages of these equations, using them with certain boundary conditions presents significant challenges. This research work will take a broad look at these challenges of modeling various boundary conditions when using the fully intrinsic equations. Hopefully it will clear the path for wider and easier use of the fully intrinsic equations in future research. This work also includes application of fully intrinsic equations in structural analysis of joined-wing aircraft, different rotor blade configuration and LCO analysis of HALE aircraft.

A Ballistic Model of Choice Response Time

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brown, Scott; Heathcote, Andrew

2005-01-01

Almost all models of response time (RT) use a stochastic accumulation process. To account for the benchmark RT phenomena, researchers have found it necessary to include between-trial variability in the starting point and/or the rate of accumulation, both in linear (R. Ratcliff & J. N. Rouder, 1998) and nonlinear (M. Usher & J. L. McClelland, 2001)…

Quantifying and Testing Indirect Effects in Simple Mediation Models when the Constituent Paths Are Nonlinear

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hayes, Andrew F.; Preacher, Kristopher J.

2010-01-01

Most treatments of indirect effects and mediation in the statistical methods literature and the corresponding methods used by behavioral scientists have assumed linear relationships between variables in the causal system. Here we describe and extend a method first introduced by Stolzenberg (1980) for estimating indirect effects in models of…

Modeling the demand-price relations in a high-frequency foreign exchange market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmidt, Anatoly B.

1999-09-01

A stochastic nonlinear dynamics model is introduced in terms of observable variables (price and excess demand assumed to be proportional to the number of buyers) to describe a high-frequency foreign exchange market. It is shown how the fundamentalist and chartist patterns of the trader behavior affect the correlation between excess demand and exchange rates.

Prediction of dislocation generation during Bridgman growth of GaAs crystals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tsai, C. T.; Yao, M. W.; Chait, Arnon

1992-01-01

Dislocation densities are generated in GaAs single crystals due to the excessive thermal stresses induced by temperature variations during growth. A viscoplastic material model for GaAs, which takes into account the movement and multiplication of dislocations in the plastic deformation, is developed according to Haasen's theory. The dislocation density is expressed as an internal state variable in this dynamic viscoplastic model. The deformation process is a nonlinear function of stress, strain rate, dislocation density and temperature. The dislocation density in the GaAs crystal during vertical Bridgman growth is calculated using a nonlinear finite element model. The dislocation multiplication in GaAs crystals for several temperature fields obtained from thermal modeling of both the GTE GaAs experimental data and artificially designed data are investigated.

Prediction of dislocation generation during Bridgman growth of GaAs crystals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsai, C. T.; Yao, M. W.; Chait, Arnon

1992-11-01

Dislocation densities are generated in GaAs single crystals due to the excessive thermal stresses induced by temperature variations during growth. A viscoplastic material model for GaAs, which takes into account the movement and multiplication of dislocations in the plastic deformation, is developed according to Haasen's theory. The dislocation density is expressed as an internal state variable in this dynamic viscoplastic model. The deformation process is a nonlinear function of stress, strain rate, dislocation density and temperature. The dislocation density in the GaAs crystal during vertical Bridgman growth is calculated using a nonlinear finite element model. The dislocation multiplication in GaAs crystals for several temperature fields obtained from thermal modeling of both the GTE GaAs experimental data and artificially designed data are investigated.

Adequacy assessment of mathematical models in the dynamics of litter decomposition in a tropical forest Mosaic Atlantic, in southeastern Brazil.

PubMed

Nunes, F P; Garcia, Q S

2015-05-01

The study of litter decomposition and nutrient cycling is essential to know native forests structure and functioning. Mathematical models can help to understand the local and temporal litter fall variations and their environmental variables relationships. The objective of this study was test the adequacy of mathematical models for leaf litter decomposition in the Atlantic Forest in southeastern Brazil. We study four native forest sites in Parque Estadual do Rio Doce, a Biosphere Reserve of the Atlantic, which were installed 200 bags of litter decomposing with 20 × 20 cm nylon screen of 2 mm, with 10 grams of litter. Monthly from 09/2007 to 04/2009, 10 litterbags were removed for determination of the mass loss. We compared 3 nonlinear models: 1 - Olson Exponential Model (1963), which considers the constant K, 2 - Model proposed by Fountain and Schowalter (2004), 3 - Model proposed by Coelho and Borges (2005), which considers the variable K through QMR, SQR, SQTC, DMA and Test F. The Fountain and Schowalter (2004) model was inappropriate for this study by overestimating decomposition rate. The decay curve analysis showed that the model with the variable K was more appropriate, although the values of QMR and DMA revealed no significant difference (p > 0.05) between the models. The analysis showed a better adjustment of DMA using K variable, reinforced by the values of the adjustment coefficient (R2). However, convergence problems were observed in this model for estimate study areas outliers, which did not occur with K constant model. This problem can be related to the non-linear fit of mass/time values to K variable generated. The model with K constant shown to be adequate to describe curve decomposition for separately areas and best adjustability without convergence problems. The results demonstrated the adequacy of Olson model to estimate tropical forest litter decomposition. Although use of reduced number of parameters equaling the steps of the decomposition process, no difficulties of convergence were observed in Olson model. So, this model can be used to describe decomposition curves in different types of environments, estimating K appropriately.

Stability of the accelerated expansion in nonlinear electrodynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharif, M.; Mumtaz, Saadia

2017-02-01

This paper is devoted to the phase space analysis of an isotropic and homogeneous model of the universe by taking a noninteracting mixture of the electromagnetic and viscous radiating fluids whose viscous pressure satisfies a nonlinear version of the Israel-Stewart transport equation. We establish an autonomous system of equations by introducing normalized dimensionless variables. In order to analyze the stability of the system, we find corresponding critical points for different values of the parameters. We also evaluate the power-law scale factor whose behavior indicates different phases of the universe in this model. It is concluded that the bulk viscosity as well as electromagnetic field enhances the stability of the accelerated expansion of the isotropic and homogeneous model of the universe.

Unbiased split variable selection for random survival forests using maximally selected rank statistics.

PubMed

Wright, Marvin N; Dankowski, Theresa; Ziegler, Andreas

2017-04-15

The most popular approach for analyzing survival data is the Cox regression model. The Cox model may, however, be misspecified, and its proportionality assumption may not always be fulfilled. An alternative approach for survival prediction is random forests for survival outcomes. The standard split criterion for random survival forests is the log-rank test statistic, which favors splitting variables with many possible split points. Conditional inference forests avoid this split variable selection bias. However, linear rank statistics are utilized by default in conditional inference forests to select the optimal splitting variable, which cannot detect non-linear effects in the independent variables. An alternative is to use maximally selected rank statistics for the split point selection. As in conditional inference forests, splitting variables are compared on the p-value scale. However, instead of the conditional Monte-Carlo approach used in conditional inference forests, p-value approximations are employed. We describe several p-value approximations and the implementation of the proposed random forest approach. A simulation study demonstrates that unbiased split variable selection is possible. However, there is a trade-off between unbiased split variable selection and runtime. In benchmark studies of prediction performance on simulated and real datasets, the new method performs better than random survival forests if informative dichotomous variables are combined with uninformative variables with more categories and better than conditional inference forests if non-linear covariate effects are included. In a runtime comparison, the method proves to be computationally faster than both alternatives, if a simple p-value approximation is used. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Predicting Survival From Large Echocardiography and Electronic Health Record Datasets: Optimization With Machine Learning.

PubMed

Samad, Manar D; Ulloa, Alvaro; Wehner, Gregory J; Jing, Linyuan; Hartzel, Dustin; Good, Christopher W; Williams, Brent A; Haggerty, Christopher M; Fornwalt, Brandon K

2018-06-09

The goal of this study was to use machine learning to more accurately predict survival after echocardiography. Predicting patient outcomes (e.g., survival) following echocardiography is primarily based on ejection fraction (EF) and comorbidities. However, there may be significant predictive information within additional echocardiography-derived measurements combined with clinical electronic health record data. Mortality was studied in 171,510 unselected patients who underwent 331,317 echocardiograms in a large regional health system. We investigated the predictive performance of nonlinear machine learning models compared with that of linear logistic regression models using 3 different inputs: 1) clinical variables, including 90 cardiovascular-relevant International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision, codes, and age, sex, height, weight, heart rate, blood pressures, low-density lipoprotein, high-density lipoprotein, and smoking; 2) clinical variables plus physician-reported EF; and 3) clinical variables and EF, plus 57 additional echocardiographic measurements. Missing data were imputed with a multivariate imputation by using a chained equations algorithm (MICE). We compared models versus each other and baseline clinical scoring systems by using a mean area under the curve (AUC) over 10 cross-validation folds and across 10 survival durations (6 to 60 months). Machine learning models achieved significantly higher prediction accuracy (all AUC >0.82) over common clinical risk scores (AUC = 0.61 to 0.79), with the nonlinear random forest models outperforming logistic regression (p < 0.01). The random forest model including all echocardiographic measurements yielded the highest prediction accuracy (p < 0.01 across all models and survival durations). Only 10 variables were needed to achieve 96% of the maximum prediction accuracy, with 6 of these variables being derived from echocardiography. Tricuspid regurgitation velocity was more predictive of survival than LVEF. In a subset of studies with complete data for the top 10 variables, multivariate imputation by chained equations yielded slightly reduced predictive accuracies (difference in AUC of 0.003) compared with the original data. Machine learning can fully utilize large combinations of disparate input variables to predict survival after echocardiography with superior accuracy. Copyright © 2018 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Multi-application controls: Robust nonlinear multivariable aerospace controls applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Enns, Dale F.; Bugajski, Daniel J.; Carter, John; Antoniewicz, Bob

1994-01-01

This viewgraph presentation describes the general methodology used to apply Honywell's Multi-Application Control (MACH) and the specific application to the F-18 High Angle-of-Attack Research Vehicle (HARV) including piloted simulation handling qualities evaluation. The general steps include insertion of modeling data for geometry and mass properties, aerodynamics, propulsion data and assumptions, requirements and specifications, e.g. definition of control variables, handling qualities, stability margins and statements for bandwidth, control power, priorities, position and rate limits. The specific steps include choice of independent variables for least squares fits to aerodynamic and propulsion data, modifications to the management of the controls with regard to integrator windup and actuation limiting and priorities, e.g. pitch priority over roll, and command limiting to prevent departures and/or undesirable inertial coupling or inability to recover to a stable trim condition. The HARV control problem is characterized by significant nonlinearities and multivariable interactions in the low speed, high angle-of-attack, high angular rate flight regime. Systematic approaches to the control of vehicle motions modeled with coupled nonlinear equations of motion have been developed. This paper will discuss the dynamic inversion approach which explicity accounts for nonlinearities in the control design. Multiple control effectors (including aerodynamic control surfaces and thrust vectoring control) and sensors are used to control the motions of the vehicles in several degrees-of-freedom. Several maneuvers will be used to illustrate performance of MACH in the high angle-of-attack flight regime. Analytical methods for assessing the robust performance of the multivariable control system in the presence of math modeling uncertainty, disturbances, and commands have reached a high level of maturity. The structured singular value (mu) frequency response methodology is presented as a method for analyzing robust performance and the mu-synthesis method will be presented as a method for synthesizing a robust control system. The paper concludes with the author's expectations regarding future applications of robust nonlinear multivariable controls.

Sparse Event Modeling with Hierarchical Bayesian Kernel Methods

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-01-05

SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: The research objective of this proposal was to develop a predictive Bayesian kernel approach to model count data based on...several predictive variables. Such an approach, which we refer to as the Poisson Bayesian kernel model , is able to model the rate of occurrence of...which adds specificity to the model and can make nonlinear data more manageable. Early results show that the 1. REPORT DATE (DD-MM-YYYY) 4. TITLE

A Nonlinear Model for Gene-Based Gene-Environment Interaction.

PubMed

Sa, Jian; Liu, Xu; He, Tao; Liu, Guifen; Cui, Yuehua

2016-06-04

A vast amount of literature has confirmed the role of gene-environment (G×E) interaction in the etiology of complex human diseases. Traditional methods are predominantly focused on the analysis of interaction between a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) and an environmental variable. Given that genes are the functional units, it is crucial to understand how gene effects (rather than single SNP effects) are influenced by an environmental variable to affect disease risk. Motivated by the increasing awareness of the power of gene-based association analysis over single variant based approach, in this work, we proposed a sparse principle component regression (sPCR) model to understand the gene-based G×E interaction effect on complex disease. We first extracted the sparse principal components for SNPs in a gene, then the effect of each principal component was modeled by a varying-coefficient (VC) model. The model can jointly model variants in a gene in which their effects are nonlinearly influenced by an environmental variable. In addition, the varying-coefficient sPCR (VC-sPCR) model has nice interpretation property since the sparsity on the principal component loadings can tell the relative importance of the corresponding SNPs in each component. We applied our method to a human birth weight dataset in Thai population. We analyzed 12,005 genes across 22 chromosomes and found one significant interaction effect using the Bonferroni correction method and one suggestive interaction. The model performance was further evaluated through simulation studies. Our model provides a system approach to evaluate gene-based G×E interaction.

[Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS), an alternative for the analysis of time series].

PubMed

Vanegas, Jairo; Vásquez, Fabián

Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) is a non-parametric modelling method that extends the linear model, incorporating nonlinearities and interactions between variables. It is a flexible tool that automates the construction of predictive models: selecting relevant variables, transforming the predictor variables, processing missing values and preventing overshooting using a self-test. It is also able to predict, taking into account structural factors that might influence the outcome variable, thereby generating hypothetical models. The end result could identify relevant cut-off points in data series. It is rarely used in health, so it is proposed as a tool for the evaluation of relevant public health indicators. For demonstrative purposes, data series regarding the mortality of children under 5 years of age in Costa Rica were used, comprising the period 1978-2008. Copyright © 2016 SESPAS. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

State estimation and prediction using clustered particle filters.

PubMed

Lee, Yoonsang; Majda, Andrew J

2016-12-20

Particle filtering is an essential tool to improve uncertain model predictions by incorporating noisy observational data from complex systems including non-Gaussian features. A class of particle filters, clustered particle filters, is introduced for high-dimensional nonlinear systems, which uses relatively few particles compared with the standard particle filter. The clustered particle filter captures non-Gaussian features of the true signal, which are typical in complex nonlinear dynamical systems such as geophysical systems. The method is also robust in the difficult regime of high-quality sparse and infrequent observations. The key features of the clustered particle filtering are coarse-grained localization through the clustering of the state variables and particle adjustment to stabilize the method; each observation affects only neighbor state variables through clustering and particles are adjusted to prevent particle collapse due to high-quality observations. The clustered particle filter is tested for the 40-dimensional Lorenz 96 model with several dynamical regimes including strongly non-Gaussian statistics. The clustered particle filter shows robust skill in both achieving accurate filter results and capturing non-Gaussian statistics of the true signal. It is further extended to multiscale data assimilation, which provides the large-scale estimation by combining a cheap reduced-order forecast model and mixed observations of the large- and small-scale variables. This approach enables the use of a larger number of particles due to the computational savings in the forecast model. The multiscale clustered particle filter is tested for one-dimensional dispersive wave turbulence using a forecast model with model errors.

State estimation and prediction using clustered particle filters

PubMed Central

Lee, Yoonsang; Majda, Andrew J.

2016-01-01

Particle filtering is an essential tool to improve uncertain model predictions by incorporating noisy observational data from complex systems including non-Gaussian features. A class of particle filters, clustered particle filters, is introduced for high-dimensional nonlinear systems, which uses relatively few particles compared with the standard particle filter. The clustered particle filter captures non-Gaussian features of the true signal, which are typical in complex nonlinear dynamical systems such as geophysical systems. The method is also robust in the difficult regime of high-quality sparse and infrequent observations. The key features of the clustered particle filtering are coarse-grained localization through the clustering of the state variables and particle adjustment to stabilize the method; each observation affects only neighbor state variables through clustering and particles are adjusted to prevent particle collapse due to high-quality observations. The clustered particle filter is tested for the 40-dimensional Lorenz 96 model with several dynamical regimes including strongly non-Gaussian statistics. The clustered particle filter shows robust skill in both achieving accurate filter results and capturing non-Gaussian statistics of the true signal. It is further extended to multiscale data assimilation, which provides the large-scale estimation by combining a cheap reduced-order forecast model and mixed observations of the large- and small-scale variables. This approach enables the use of a larger number of particles due to the computational savings in the forecast model. The multiscale clustered particle filter is tested for one-dimensional dispersive wave turbulence using a forecast model with model errors. PMID:27930332

Sustainability of transport structures - some aspects of the nonlinear reliability assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pukl, Radomír; Sajdlová, Tereza; Strauss, Alfred; Lehký, David; Novák, Drahomír

2017-09-01

Efficient techniques for both nonlinear numerical analysis of concrete structures and advanced stochastic simulation methods have been combined in order to offer an advanced tool for assessment of realistic behaviour, failure and safety assessment of transport structures. The utilized approach is based on randomization of the non-linear finite element analysis of the structural models. Degradation aspects such as carbonation of concrete can be accounted in order predict durability of the investigated structure and its sustainability. Results can serve as a rational basis for the performance and sustainability assessment based on advanced nonlinear computer analysis of the structures of transport infrastructure such as bridges or tunnels. In the stochastic simulation the input material parameters obtained from material tests including their randomness and uncertainty are represented as random variables or fields. Appropriate identification of material parameters is crucial for the virtual failure modelling of structures and structural elements. Inverse analysis using artificial neural networks and virtual stochastic simulations approach is applied to determine the fracture mechanical parameters of the structural material and its numerical model. Structural response, reliability and sustainability have been investigated on different types of transport structures made from various materials using the above mentioned methodology and tools.

Studying Climate Response to Forcing by the Nonlinear Dynamical Mode Decomposition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mukhin, Dmitry; Gavrilov, Andrey; Loskutov, Evgeny; Feigin, Alexander

2017-04-01

An analysis of global climate response to external forcing, both anthropogenic (mainly, CO2 and aerosol) and natural (solar and volcanic), is needed for adequate predictions of global climate change. Being complex dynamical system, the climate reacts to external perturbations exciting feedbacks (both positive and negative) making the response non-trivial and poorly predictable. Thus an extraction of internal modes of climate system, investigation of their interaction with external forcings and further modeling and forecast of their dynamics, are all the problems providing the success of climate modeling. In the report the new method for principal mode extraction from climate data is presented. The method is based on the Nonlinear Dynamical Mode (NDM) expansion [1,2], but takes into account a number of external forcings applied to the system. Each NDM is represented by hidden time series governing the observed variability, which, together with external forcing time series, are mapped onto data space. While forcing time series are considered to be known, the hidden unknown signals underlying the internal climate dynamics are extracted from observed data by the suggested method. In particular, it gives us an opportunity to study the evolution of principal system's mode structure in changing external conditions and separate the internal climate variability from trends forced by external perturbations. Furthermore, the modes so obtained can be extrapolated beyond the observational time series, and long-term prognosis of modes' structure including characteristics of interconnections and responses to external perturbations, can be carried out. In this work the method is used for reconstructing and studying the principal modes of climate variability on inter-annual and decadal time scales accounting the external forcings such as anthropogenic emissions, variations of the solar activity and volcanic activity. The structure of the obtained modes as well as their response to external factors, e.g. forecast their change in 21 century under different CO2 emission scenarios, are discussed. [1] Mukhin, D., Gavrilov, A., Feigin, A., Loskutov, E., & Kurths, J. (2015). Principal nonlinear dynamical modes of climate variability. Scientific Reports, 5, 15510. http://doi.org/10.1038/srep15510 [2] Gavrilov, A., Mukhin, D., Loskutov, E., Volodin, E., Feigin, A., & Kurths, J. (2016). Method for reconstructing nonlinear modes with adaptive structure from multidimensional data. Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, 26(12), 123101. http://doi.org/10.1063/1.4968852

A variable-gain output feedback control design approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haylo, Nesim

1989-01-01

A multi-model design technique to find a variable-gain control law defined over the whole operating range is proposed. The design is formulated as an optimal control problem which minimizes a cost function weighing the performance at many operating points. The solution is obtained by embedding into the Multi-Configuration Control (MCC) problem, a multi-model robust control design technique. In contrast to conventional gain scheduling which uses a curve fit of single model designs, the optimal variable-gain control law stabilizes the plant at every operating point included in the design. An iterative algorithm to compute the optimal control gains is presented. The methodology has been successfully applied to reconfigurable aircraft flight control and to nonlinear flight control systems.

Deriving dynamical models from paleoclimatic records: application to glacial millennial-scale climate variability.

PubMed

Kwasniok, Frank; Lohmann, Gerrit

2009-12-01

A method for systematically deriving simple nonlinear dynamical models from ice-core data is proposed. It offers a tool to integrate models and theories with paleoclimatic data. The method is based on the unscented Kalman filter, a nonlinear extension of the conventional Kalman filter. Here, we adopt the abstract conceptual model of stochastically driven motion in a potential that allows for two distinctly different states. The parameters of the model-the shape of the potential and the noise level-are estimated from a North Greenland ice-core record. For the glacial period from 70 to 20 ky before present, a potential is derived that is asymmetric and almost degenerate. There is a deep well corresponding to a cold stadial state and a very shallow well corresponding to a warm interstadial state.

A new adaptive estimation method of spacecraft thermal mathematical model with an ensemble Kalman filter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akita, T.; Takaki, R.; Shima, E.

2012-04-01

An adaptive estimation method of spacecraft thermal mathematical model is presented. The method is based on the ensemble Kalman filter, which can effectively handle the nonlinearities contained in the thermal model. The state space equations of the thermal mathematical model is derived, where both temperature and uncertain thermal characteristic parameters are considered as the state variables. In the method, the thermal characteristic parameters are automatically estimated as the outputs of the filtered state variables, whereas, in the usual thermal model correlation, they are manually identified by experienced engineers using trial-and-error approach. A numerical experiment of a simple small satellite is provided to verify the effectiveness of the presented method.

Sparse covariance estimation in heterogeneous samples*

PubMed Central

Rodríguez, Abel; Lenkoski, Alex; Dobra, Adrian

2015-01-01

Standard Gaussian graphical models implicitly assume that the conditional independence among variables is common to all observations in the sample. However, in practice, observations are usually collected from heterogeneous populations where such an assumption is not satisfied, leading in turn to nonlinear relationships among variables. To address such situations we explore mixtures of Gaussian graphical models; in particular, we consider both infinite mixtures and infinite hidden Markov models where the emission distributions correspond to Gaussian graphical models. Such models allow us to divide a heterogeneous population into homogenous groups, with each cluster having its own conditional independence structure. As an illustration, we study the trends in foreign exchange rate fluctuations in the pre-Euro era. PMID:26925189

Fitting Nonlinear Curves by use of Optimization Techniques

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hill, Scott A.

2005-01-01

MULTIVAR is a FORTRAN 77 computer program that fits one of the members of a set of six multivariable mathematical models (five of which are nonlinear) to a multivariable set of data. The inputs to MULTIVAR include the data for the independent and dependent variables plus the user s choice of one of the models, one of the three optimization engines, and convergence criteria. By use of the chosen optimization engine, MULTIVAR finds values for the parameters of the chosen model so as to minimize the sum of squares of the residuals. One of the optimization engines implements a routine, developed in 1982, that utilizes the Broydon-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno (BFGS) variable-metric method for unconstrained minimization in conjunction with a one-dimensional search technique that finds the minimum of an unconstrained function by polynomial interpolation and extrapolation without first finding bounds on the solution. The second optimization engine is a faster and more robust commercially available code, denoted Design Optimization Tool, that also uses the BFGS method. The third optimization engine is a robust and relatively fast routine that implements the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm.

Subgrid-scale parameterization and low-frequency variability: a response theory approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demaeyer, Jonathan; Vannitsem, Stéphane

2016-04-01

Weather and climate models are limited in the possible range of resolved spatial and temporal scales. However, due to the huge space- and time-scale ranges involved in the Earth System dynamics, the effects of many sub-grid processes should be parameterized. These parameterizations have an impact on the forecasts or projections. It could also affect the low-frequency variability present in the system (such as the one associated to ENSO or NAO). An important question is therefore to know what is the impact of stochastic parameterizations on the Low-Frequency Variability generated by the system and its model representation. In this context, we consider a stochastic subgrid-scale parameterization based on the Ruelle's response theory and proposed in Wouters and Lucarini (2012). We test this approach in the context of a low-order coupled ocean-atmosphere model, detailed in Vannitsem et al. (2015), for which a part of the atmospheric modes is considered as unresolved. A natural separation of the phase-space into a slow invariant set and its fast complement allows for an analytical derivation of the different terms involved in the parameterization, namely the average, the fluctuation and the long memory terms. Its application to the low-order system reveals that a considerable correction of the low-frequency variability along the invariant subset can be obtained. This new approach of scale separation opens new avenues of subgrid-scale parameterizations in multiscale systems used for climate forecasts. References: Vannitsem S, Demaeyer J, De Cruz L, Ghil M. 2015. Low-frequency variability and heat transport in a low-order nonlinear coupled ocean-atmosphere model. Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena 309: 71-85. Wouters J, Lucarini V. 2012. Disentangling multi-level systems: averaging, correlations and memory. Journal of Statistical Mechanics: Theory and Experiment 2012(03): P03 003.

The application of neural network model to the simulation nitrous oxide emission in the hydro-fluctuation belt of Three Gorges Reservoir

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Lanlan

2017-04-01

Nitrous oxide is much more potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide. However, the estimation of N2O flux is usually clouded with uncertainty, mainly due to high spatial and temporal variations. This hampers the development of general mechanistic models for N2O emission as well, as most previously developed models were empirical or exhibited low predictability with numerous assumptions. In this study, we tested General Regression Neural Networks (GRNN) as an alternative to classic empirical models for simulating N2O emission in riparian zones of Reservoirs. GRNN and nonlinear regression (NLR) were applied to estimate the N2O flux of 1-year observations in riparian zones of Three Gorge Reservoir. NLR resulted in lower prediction power and higher residuals compared to GRNN. Although nonlinear regression model estimated similar average values of N2O, it could not capture the fluctuation patterns accurately. In contrast, GRNN model achieved a fairly high predictability, with an R2 of 0.59 for model validation, 0.77 for model calibration (training), and a low root mean square error (RMSE), indicating a high capacity to simulate the dynamics of N2O flux. According to a sensitivity analysis of the GRNN, nonlinear relationships between input variables and N2O flux were well explained. Our results suggest that the GRNN developed in this study has a greater performance in simulating variations in N2O flux than nonlinear regressions.

Does the high–tech industry consistently reduce CO{sub 2} emissions? Results from nonparametric additive regression model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xu, Bin; Research Center of Applied Statistics, Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanchang, Jiangxi 330013; Lin, Boqiang, E-mail: bqlin@xmu.edu.cn

China is currently the world's largest carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) emitter. Moreover, total energy consumption and CO{sub 2} emissions in China will continue to increase due to the rapid growth of industrialization and urbanization. Therefore, vigorously developing the high–tech industry becomes an inevitable choice to reduce CO{sub 2} emissions at the moment or in the future. However, ignoring the existing nonlinear links between economic variables, most scholars use traditional linear models to explore the impact of the high–tech industry on CO{sub 2} emissions from an aggregate perspective. Few studies have focused on nonlinear relationships and regional differences in China. Basedmore » on panel data of 1998–2014, this study uses the nonparametric additive regression model to explore the nonlinear effect of the high–tech industry from a regional perspective. The estimated results show that the residual sum of squares (SSR) of the nonparametric additive regression model in the eastern, central and western regions are 0.693, 0.054 and 0.085 respectively, which are much less those that of the traditional linear regression model (3.158, 4.227 and 7.196). This verifies that the nonparametric additive regression model has a better fitting effect. Specifically, the high–tech industry produces an inverted “U–shaped” nonlinear impact on CO{sub 2} emissions in the eastern region, but a positive “U–shaped” nonlinear effect in the central and western regions. Therefore, the nonlinear impact of the high–tech industry on CO{sub 2} emissions in the three regions should be given adequate attention in developing effective abatement policies. - Highlights: • The nonlinear effect of the high–tech industry on CO{sub 2} emissions was investigated. • The high–tech industry yields an inverted “U–shaped” effect in the eastern region. • The high–tech industry has a positive “U–shaped” nonlinear effect in other regions. • The linear impact of the high–tech industry in the eastern region is the strongest.« less

A predictability study of Lorenz's 28-variable model as a dynamical system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krishnamurthy, V.

1993-01-01

The dynamics of error growth in a two-layer nonlinear quasi-geostrophic model has been studied to gain an understanding of the mathematical theory of atmospheric predictability. The growth of random errors of varying initial magnitudes has been studied, and the relation between this classical approach and the concepts of the nonlinear dynamical systems theory has been explored. The local and global growths of random errors have been expressed partly in terms of the properties of an error ellipsoid and the Liapunov exponents determined by linear error dynamics. The local growth of small errors is initially governed by several modes of the evolving error ellipsoid but soon becomes dominated by the longest axis. The average global growth of small errors is exponential with a growth rate consistent with the largest Liapunov exponent. The duration of the exponential growth phase depends on the initial magnitude of the errors. The subsequent large errors undergo a nonlinear growth with a steadily decreasing growth rate and attain saturation that defines the limit of predictability. The degree of chaos and the largest Liapunov exponent show considerable variation with change in the forcing, which implies that the time variation in the external forcing can introduce variable character to the predictability.

Nonlinear Dynamics of the Nearshore Boundary Layer of a Large Lake (Lake Geneva)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cimatoribus, Andrea A.; Lemmin, U.; Bouffard, D.; Barry, D. A.

2018-02-01

We examine nearshore and pelagic current variability in Lake Geneva, a large and deep lake in western Europe, using observations from several measurement locations and a three-dimensional numerical model for the period 2014-2016. Linear internal seiche modes excited by wind forcing clearly appear as peaks in the energy spectra for measurements in offshore locations. In contrast, spectra from the nearshore data, where currents interact with the lake bed, reveal a negligible contribution of internal seiches to the total kinetic energy. A similar contrast is seen in the spectra obtained from the numerical model at the same locations. Comparing the contribution of the different terms in the vertically averaged momentum equation from the modeling results shows that the nonlinear advective term dominates in the nearshore boundary layer. Its contribution decays with distance from shore. The width of this nearshore boundary layer, which may extend for several kilometers, seems to be mainly determined by local topography. Both field measurements and modeling results indicate that nonlinear dynamics are of primary importance in the nearshore boundary layer.

Adaptive Finite Element Methods for Continuum Damage Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Min, J. B.; Tworzydlo, W. W.; Xiques, K. E.

1995-01-01

The paper presents an application of adaptive finite element methods to the modeling of low-cycle continuum damage and life prediction of high-temperature components. The major objective is to provide automated and accurate modeling of damaged zones through adaptive mesh refinement and adaptive time-stepping methods. The damage modeling methodology is implemented in an usual way by embedding damage evolution in the transient nonlinear solution of elasto-viscoplastic deformation problems. This nonlinear boundary-value problem is discretized by adaptive finite element methods. The automated h-adaptive mesh refinements are driven by error indicators, based on selected principal variables in the problem (stresses, non-elastic strains, damage, etc.). In the time domain, adaptive time-stepping is used, combined with a predictor-corrector time marching algorithm. The time selection is controlled by required time accuracy. In order to take into account strong temperature dependency of material parameters, the nonlinear structural solution a coupled with thermal analyses (one-way coupling). Several test examples illustrate the importance and benefits of adaptive mesh refinements in accurate prediction of damage levels and failure time.

Integrating Growth Variability of the Ilium, Fifth Lumbar Vertebra, and Clavicle with Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines Models for Subadult Age Estimation.

PubMed

Corron, Louise; Marchal, François; Condemi, Silvana; Telmon, Norbert; Chaumoitre, Kathia; Adalian, Pascal

2018-05-31

Subadult age estimation should rely on sampling and statistical protocols capturing development variability for more accurate age estimates. In this perspective, measurements were taken on the fifth lumbar vertebrae and/or clavicles of 534 French males and females aged 0-19 years and the ilia of 244 males and females aged 0-12 years. These variables were fitted in nonparametric multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) models with 95% prediction intervals (PIs) of age. The models were tested on two independent samples from Marseille and the Luis Lopes reference collection from Lisbon. Models using ilium width and module, maximum clavicle length, and lateral vertebral body heights were more than 92% accurate. Precision was lower for postpubertal individuals. Integrating punctual nonlinearities of the relationship between age and the variables and dynamic prediction intervals incorporated the normal increase in interindividual growth variability (heteroscedasticity of variance) with age for more biologically accurate predictions. © 2018 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

Nonlinear zero-sum differential game analysis by singular perturbation methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sinar, J.; Farber, N.

1982-01-01

A class of nonlinear, zero-sum differential games, exhibiting time-scale separation properties, can be analyzed by singular-perturbation techniques. The merits of such an analysis, leading to an approximate game solution, as well as the 'well-posedness' of the formulation, are discussed. This approach is shown to be attractive for investigating pursuit-evasion problems; the original multidimensional differential game is decomposed to a 'simple pursuit' (free-stream) game and two independent (boundary-layer) optimal-control problems. Using multiple time-scale boundary-layer models results in a pair of uniformly valid zero-order composite feedback strategies. The dependence of suboptimal strategies on relative geometry and own-state measurements is demonstrated by a three dimensional, constant-speed example. For game analysis with realistic vehicle dynamics, the technique of forced singular perturbations and a variable modeling approach is proposed. Accuracy of the analysis is evaluated by comparison with the numerical solution of a time-optimal, variable-speed 'game of two cars' in the horizontal plane.

Controls of soil hydraulic characteristics on modeling groundwater recharge under different climatic conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Tiejun; Franz, Trenton E.; Zlotnik, Vitaly A.

2015-02-01

To meet the challenge of estimating spatially varying groundwater recharge (GR), increasing attention has been given to the use of vadose zone models (VZMs). However, the application of this approach is usually constrained by the lack of field soil hydraulic characteristics (SHCs) required by VZMs. To tackle this issue, SHCs based on the van Genuchten or Brooks-Corey model are generally estimated by pedotransfer functions or taken from texture based class averages. With the increasing use of this method, it is important to elucidate the controls of SHCs on computing GR mostly due to the high nonlinearity of the models. In this study, it is hypothesized that the nonlinear controls of SHCs on computing GR would vary with climatic conditions. To test this hypothesis, a widely used VZM along with two SHCs datasets for sand and loamy sand is used to compute GR at four sites in the continental Unites States with a significant gradient of precipitation (P). The simulation results show that the distribution patterns of mean annual GR ratios (GR ‾ / P ‾ , where GR ‾ and P ‾ are mean annual GR and P, respectively) vary considerably across the sites, largely depending on soil texture and climatic conditions at each site. It is found that GR ‾ / P ‾ is mainly controlled by the shape factor n in the van Genuchten model and the nonlinear effect of n on GR ‾ / P ‾ varies with climatic conditions. Specifically, for both soil textures, the variability in GR ‾ / P ‾ is smallest at the Andrews Forest with the highest P ‾ (191.3 cm/year) and GR ‾ / P ‾ is least sensitive to n; whereas, the variability in GR ‾ / P ‾ at the Konza Prairie (P ‾ = 84.2 cm/year) is the largest and GR ‾ / P ‾ is most sensitive to n. With further decreasing P ‾ , the nonlinear effect of n weakens at the Barta Brothers (P ‾ = 57.3 cm/year) and Sevilleta (P ‾ = 20.3 cm/year), leading to smaller GR ‾ / P ‾ variability at those two sites than at the Konza Prairie. The results also reveal that GR ‾ / P ‾ in finer soils with smaller n values decreases more rapidly with decreasing P ‾ .

Synthesis of robust nonlinear autopilots using differential game theory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Menon, P. K. A.

1991-01-01

A synthesis technique for handling unmodeled disturbances in nonlinear control law synthesis was advanced using differential game theory. Two types of modeling inaccuracies can be included in the formulation. The first is a bias-type error, while the second is the scale-factor-type error in the control variables. The disturbances were assumed to satisfy an integral inequality constraint. Additionally, it was assumed that they act in such a way as to maximize a quadratic performance index. Expressions for optimal control and worst-case disturbance were then obtained using optimal control theory.

The relationship between phytoplankton concentration and light attenuation in ocean waters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Phinney, David A.; Yentsch, Charles S.

1986-01-01

The accuracy of chlorophyll estimates by ocean color algorithms is affected by the variability of particulate attenuation; the presence of dissolved organic matter; and the nonlinear inverse relationship between the attenuation coefficient, K, and chlorophyll. Data collected during the Warm Core Rings Program were used to model the downwelling light field and determine the impact of these errors. A possible mechanism for the nonlinearity of K and chlorophyll is suggested; namely, that changing substrate from nitrate-nitrogen to ammonium causes enhanced blue absorption by photosynthetic phytoplankton in oligotrophic surface waters.

Predicting seizures in untreated temporal lobe epilepsy using point-process nonlinear models of heartbeat dynamics.

PubMed

Valenza, G; Romigi, A; Citi, L; Placidi, F; Izzi, F; Albanese, M; Scilingo, E P; Marciani, M G; Duggento, A; Guerrisi, M; Toschi, N; Barbieri, R

2016-08-01

Symptoms of temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE) are frequently associated with autonomic dysregulation, whose underlying biological processes are thought to strongly contribute to sudden unexpected death in epilepsy (SUDEP). While abnormal cardiovascular patterns commonly occur during ictal events, putative patterns of autonomic cardiac effects during pre-ictal (PRE) periods (i.e. periods preceding seizures) are still unknown. In this study, we investigated TLE-related heart rate variability (HRV) through instantaneous, nonlinear estimates of cardiovascular oscillations during inter-ictal (INT) and PRE periods. ECG recordings from 12 patients with TLE were processed to extract standard HRV indices, as well as indices of instantaneous HRV complexity (dominant Lyapunov exponent and entropy) and higher-order statistics (bispectra) obtained through definition of inhomogeneous point-process nonlinear models, employing Volterra-Laguerre expansions of linear, quadratic, and cubic kernels. Experimental results demonstrate that the best INT vs. PRE classification performance (balanced accuracy: 73.91%) was achieved only when retaining the time-varying, nonlinear, and non-stationary structure of heartbeat dynamical features. The proposed approach opens novel important avenues in predicting ictal events using information gathered from cardiovascular signals exclusively.

Exact docking flight controller for autonomous aerial refueling with back-stepping based high order sliding mode

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Su, Zikang; Wang, Honglun; Li, Na; Yu, Yue; Wu, Jianfa

2018-02-01

Autonomous aerial refueling (AAR) exact docking control has always been an intractable problem due to the strong nonlinearity, the tight coupling of the 6 DOF aircraft model and the complex disturbances of the multiple environment flows. In this paper, the strongly coupled nonlinear 6 DOF model of the receiver aircraft which considers the multiple flow disturbances is established in the affine nonlinear form to facilitate the nonlinear controller design. The items reflecting the influence of the unknown flow disturbances in the receiver dynamics are taken as the components of the "lumped disturbances" together with the items which have no linear correlation with the virtual control variables. These unmeasurable lumped disturbances are estimated and compensated by a specially designed high order sliding mode observer (HOSMO) with excellent estimation property. With the compensation of the estimated lumped disturbances, a back-stepping high order sliding mode based exact docking flight controller is proposed for AAR in the presence of multiple flow disturbances. Extensive simulation results demonstrate the feasibility and superiority of the proposed docking controller.

Flatness-based control and Kalman filtering for a continuous-time macroeconomic model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rigatos, G.; Siano, P.; Ghosh, T.; Busawon, K.; Binns, R.

2017-11-01

The article proposes flatness-based control for a nonlinear macro-economic model of the UK economy. The differential flatness properties of the model are proven. This enables to introduce a transformation (diffeomorphism) of the system's state variables and to express the state-space description of the model in the linear canonical (Brunowsky) form in which both the feedback control and the state estimation problem can be solved. For the linearized equivalent model of the macroeconomic system, stabilizing feedback control can be achieved using pole placement methods. Moreover, to implement stabilizing feedback control of the system by measuring only a subset of its state vector elements the Derivative-free nonlinear Kalman Filter is used. This consists of the Kalman Filter recursion applied on the linearized equivalent model of the financial system and of an inverse transformation that is based again on differential flatness theory. The asymptotic stability properties of the control scheme are confirmed.

Thermospheric dynamics - A system theory approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Codrescu, M.; Forbes, J. M.; Roble, R. G.

1990-01-01

A system theory approach to thermospheric modeling is developed, based upon a linearization method which is capable of preserving nonlinear features of a dynamical system. The method is tested using a large, nonlinear, time-varying system, namely the thermospheric general circulation model (TGCM) of the National Center for Atmospheric Research. In the linearized version an equivalent system, defined for one of the desired TGCM output variables, is characterized by a set of response functions that is constructed from corresponding quasi-steady state and unit sample response functions. The linearized version of the system runs on a personal computer and produces an approximation of the desired TGCM output field height profile at a given geographic location.

An endochronic theory for transversely isotropic fibrous composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pindera, M. J.; Herakovich, C. T.

1981-01-01

A rational methodology of modelling both nonlinear and elastic dissipative response of transversely isotropic fibrous composites is developed and illustrated with the aid of the observed response of graphite-polyimide off-axis coupons. The methodology is based on the internal variable formalism employed within the text of classical irreversible thermodynamics and entails extension of Valanis' endochronic theory to transversely isotropic media. Applicability of the theory to prediction of various response characteristics of fibrous composites is illustrated by accurately modelling such often observed phenomena as: stiffening reversible behavior along fiber direction; dissipative response in shear and transverse tension characterized by power-laws with different hardening exponents; permanent strain accumulation; nonlinear unloading and reloading; and stress-interaction effects.

Chaotic behaviour of the Rossler model and its analysis by using bifurcations of limit cycles and chaotic attractors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ibrahim, K. M.; Jamal, R. K.; Ali, F. H.

2018-05-01

The behaviour of certain dynamical nonlinear systems are described in term as chaos, i.e., systems’ variables change with the time, displaying very sensitivity to initial conditions of chaotic dynamics. In this paper, we study archetype systems of ordinary differential equations in two-dimensional phase spaces of the Rössler model. A system displays continuous time chaos and is explained by three coupled nonlinear differential equations. We study its characteristics and determine the control parameters that lead to different behavior of the system output, periodic, quasi-periodic and chaos. The time series, attractor, Fast Fourier Transformation and bifurcation diagram for different values have been described.

Nonideal transport of reactive solutes in heterogeneous porous media: 4. Analysis of the Cape Cod Natural‐Gradient Field Experiment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brusseau, Mark L.; Srivastava, Rajesh

1999-01-01

One of the largest field studies of reactive‐solute transport is the natural‐gradient experiment conducted at Cape Cod from 1985 to 1988. Major findings regarding the transport behavior of the reactive solute (lithium) were that the rate of plume displacement decreased with time (temporal increase in effective retardation), the degree of longitudinal spreading was much greater than that observed for bromide for an equivalent travel distance, and the plume was asymmetric, with maximum concentrations located near the leading edges. The objective of our work was to quantitatively analyze the transport of lithium and to attempt to identify the factor or factors that contributed significantly to its observed nonideal transport. We used a mathematical model that accounted for several transport factors, including spatially variable hydraulic conductivity and spatially variable, nonlinear, rate‐limited sorption, with all parameter values obtained independently. The transport behavior observed during the first 250 days, corresponding to a transport distance of 60 m, was predicted reasonably well by the simulation that incorporated spatially variable hydraulic conductivity; nonlinear, rate‐limited, spatially variable sorption; and uniform water chemistry. However, the larger degree of deceleration observed during the latter stage of the experiment (the filial 20 m) was not. The larger deceleration was successfully simulated by increasing 3‐fold the mean sorption capacity of the latter portion of the transport domain. Such a change in sorption capacity is consistent with the potential impact on lithium sorption of measured changes in water chemistry (e.g.,pH increase, reduction in resident Zn)at occur in the zone through which the lithium plume traversed. The results of the analyses suggest that nonlinear sorption and variable water chemistry may have btors responsible for the nonuniform displacement of the lithium plume, with rate‐limited sorption/desorption having minimal impact. In addition, the asymmetry of the plume appears to have been caused primarily by nonlinear sorption, whereas the enhanced longitudinal spreading appears to have been caused by the combined influences of spatially variable hydraulic conductivity and sorption, nonlinear sorption, and rate‐limited sorption/desorption. A comparison of the results of this analysis to those we obtained from an analysis of the Borden natural‐gradient study reveals several similarities regarding the transport of reactive contaminants at the field scale.

Analytical and Numerical solutions of a nonlinear alcoholism model via variable-order fractional differential equations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gómez-Aguilar, J. F.

2018-03-01

In this paper, we analyze an alcoholism model which involves the impact of Twitter via Liouville-Caputo and Atangana-Baleanu-Caputo fractional derivatives with constant- and variable-order. Two fractional mathematical models are considered, with and without delay. Special solutions using an iterative scheme via Laplace and Sumudu transform were obtained. We studied the uniqueness and existence of the solutions employing the fixed point postulate. The generalized model with variable-order was solved numerically via the Adams method and the Adams-Bashforth-Moulton scheme. Stability and convergence of the numerical solutions were presented in details. Numerical examples of the approximate solutions are provided to show that the numerical methods are computationally efficient. Therefore, by including both the fractional derivatives and finite time delays in the alcoholism model studied, we believe that we have established a more complete and more realistic indicator of alcoholism model and affect the spread of the drinking.

General description and understanding of the nonlinear dynamics of mode-locked fiber lasers.

PubMed

Wei, Huai; Li, Bin; Shi, Wei; Zhu, Xiushan; Norwood, Robert A; Peyghambarian, Nasser; Jian, Shuisheng

2017-05-02

As a type of nonlinear system with complexity, mode-locked fiber lasers are known for their complex behaviour. It is a challenging task to understand the fundamental physics behind such complex behaviour, and a unified description for the nonlinear behaviour and the systematic and quantitative analysis of the underlying mechanisms of these lasers have not been developed. Here, we present a complexity science-based theoretical framework for understanding the behaviour of mode-locked fiber lasers by going beyond reductionism. This hierarchically structured framework provides a model with variable dimensionality, resulting in a simple view that can be used to systematically describe complex states. Moreover, research into the attractors' basins reveals the origin of stochasticity, hysteresis and multistability in these systems and presents a new method for quantitative analysis of these nonlinear phenomena. These findings pave the way for dynamics analysis and system designs of mode-locked fiber lasers. We expect that this paradigm will also enable potential applications in diverse research fields related to complex nonlinear phenomena.

Period of vibration of axially vibrating truly nonlinear rod

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cveticanin, L.

2016-07-01

In this paper the axial vibration of a muscle whose fibers are parallel to the direction of muscle compression is investigated. The model is a clamped-free rod with a strongly nonlinear elastic property. Axial vibration is described by a nonlinear partial differential equation. A solution of the equation is constructed for special initial conditions by using the method of separation of variables. The partial differential equation is separated into two uncoupled strongly nonlinear second order differential equations. Both equations, with displacement function and with time function are exactly determined. Exact solutions are given in the form of inverse incomplete and inverse complete Beta function. Using boundary and initial conditions, the frequency of vibration is obtained. It has to be mentioned that the determined frequency represents the exact analytic description for the axially vibrating truly nonlinear clamped-free rod. The procedure suggested in this paper is applied for calculation of the frequency of the longissimus dorsi muscle of a cow. The influence of elasticity order and elasticity coefficient on the frequency property is tested.

Nonlinear Response of the Stratosphere and the North Atlantic-European Climate to Global Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manzini, E.; Karpechko, A. Yu.; Kornblueh, L.

2018-05-01

The response of the northern winter atmospheric circulation for two consecutive global warming periods of 2 K is examined in a grand ensemble (68 members) of idealized CO2 increase experiments performed with the same climate model. The comparison of the atmospheric responses for the two periods shows remarkable differences, indicating the nonlinearity of the response. The nonlinear signature of the atmospheric and surface responses is reminiscent of the positive phase of the annular mode of variability. The stratospheric vortex response shifts from an easterly wind change for the first 2 K to a westerly wind change for the second 2 K. The North Atlantic storm track shifts poleward only in the second period. A weaker November Arctic amplification during the second period suggests that differences in Arctic sea ice changes can act to trigger the atmospheric nonlinear response. Stratosphere-troposphere coupling thereafter can provide for the persistence of this nonlinearity throughout the winter.

Decentralized robust nonlinear model predictive controller for unmanned aerial systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia Garreton, Gonzalo A.

The nonlinear and unsteady nature of aircraft aerodynamics together with limited practical range of controls and state variables make the use of the linear control theory inadequate especially in the presence of external disturbances, such as wind. In the classical approach, aircraft are controlled by multiple inner and outer loops, designed separately and sequentially. For unmanned aerial systems in particular, control technology must evolve to a point where autonomy is extended to the entire mission flight envelope. This requires advanced controllers that have sufficient robustness, track complex trajectories, and use all the vehicles control capabilities at higher levels of accuracy. In this work, a robust nonlinear model predictive controller is designed to command and control an unmanned aerial system to track complex tight trajectories in the presence of internal and external perturbance. The Flight System developed in this work achieves the above performance by using: 1. A nonlinear guidance algorithm that enables the vehicle to follow an arbitrary trajectory shaped by moving points; 2. A formulation that embeds the guidance logic and trajectory information in the aircraft model, avoiding cross coupling and control degradation; 3. An artificial neural network, designed to adaptively estimate and provide aerodynamic and propulsive forces in real-time; and 4. A mixed sensitivity approach that enhances the robustness for a nonlinear model predictive controller overcoming the effect of un-modeled dynamics, external disturbances such as wind, and measurement additive perturbations, such as noise and biases. These elements have been integrated and tested in simulation and with previously stored flight test data and shown to be feasible.

Reinforcement learning state estimator.

PubMed

Morimoto, Jun; Doya, Kenji

2007-03-01

In this study, we propose a novel use of reinforcement learning for estimating hidden variables and parameters of nonlinear dynamical systems. A critical issue in hidden-state estimation is that we cannot directly observe estimation errors. However, by defining errors of observable variables as a delayed penalty, we can apply a reinforcement learning frame-work to state estimation problems. Specifically, we derive a method to construct a nonlinear state estimator by finding an appropriate feedback input gain using the policy gradient method. We tested the proposed method on single pendulum dynamics and show that the joint angle variable could be successfully estimated by observing only the angular velocity, and vice versa. In addition, we show that we could acquire a state estimator for the pendulum swing-up task in which a swing-up controller is also acquired by reinforcement learning simultaneously. Furthermore, we demonstrate that it is possible to estimate the dynamics of the pendulum itself while the hidden variables are estimated in the pendulum swing-up task. Application of the proposed method to a two-linked biped model is also presented.

Modeling Sea-Surface Variability Caused by Kilometer-Scale Marine Atmospheric Boundary Layer Circulations

DTIC Science & Technology

1994-05-01

expressions except those of the form f trig,(x’,y’) trigo (x,y’)Ad" = 4, p: c. (2.73) 00 For the nonlinear term, we retain expressions of the form f ftrig...eigenvalue. We use separation of variables to find solutions of the form 7 =trig (x*, y *)FJ. (z), (B.3) where trigo (x*,y*)= I (B.4) trig,(x*,y*) = sin 2,x

Comparison of empirical and data driven hydrometeorological hazard models on coastal cities of São Paulo, Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koga-Vicente, A.; Friedel, M. J.

2010-12-01

Every year thousands of people are affected by floods and landslide hazards caused by rainstorms. The problem is more serious in tropical developing countries because of the susceptibility as a result of the high amount of available energy to form storms, and the high vulnerability due to poor economic and social conditions. Predictive models of hazards are important tools to manage this kind of risk. In this study, a comparison of two different modeling approaches was made for predicting hydrometeorological hazards in 12 cities on the coast of São Paulo, Brazil, from 1994 to 2003. In the first approach, an empirical multiple linear regression (MLR) model was developed and used; the second approach used a type of unsupervised nonlinear artificial neural network called a self-organized map (SOM). By using twenty three independent variables of susceptibility (precipitation, soil type, slope, elevation, and regional atmospheric system scale) and vulnerability (distribution and total population, income and educational characteristics, poverty intensity, human development index), binary hazard responses were obtained. Model performance by cross-validation indicated that the respective MLR and SOM model accuracy was about 67% and 80%. Prediction accuracy can be improved by the addition of information, but the SOM approach is preferred because of sparse data and highly nonlinear relations among the independent variables.

REVISITING EVIDENCE OF CHAOS IN X-RAY LIGHT CURVES: THE CASE OF GRS 1915+105

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mannattil, Manu; Gupta, Himanshu; Chakraborty, Sagar, E-mail: mmanu@iitk.ac.in, E-mail: hiugupta@iitk.ac.in, E-mail: sagarc@iitk.ac.in

2016-12-20

Nonlinear time series analysis has been widely used to search for signatures of low-dimensional chaos in light curves emanating from astrophysical bodies. A particularly popular example is the microquasar GRS 1915+105, whose irregular but systematic X-ray variability has been well studied using data acquired by the Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer . With a view to building simpler models of X-ray variability, attempts have been made to classify the light curves of GRS 1915+105 as chaotic or stochastic. Contrary to some of the earlier suggestions, after careful analysis, we find no evidence for chaos or determinism in any of the GRS 1915+105 classes. Themore » dearth of long and stationary data sets representing all the different variability classes of GRS 1915+105 makes it a poor candidate for analysis using nonlinear time series techniques. We conclude that either very exhaustive data analysis with sufficiently long and stationary light curves should be performed, keeping all the pitfalls of nonlinear time series analysis in mind, or alternative schemes of classifying the light curves should be adopted. The generic limitations of the techniques that we point out in the context of GRS 1915+105 affect all similar investigations of light curves from other astrophysical sources.« less

Effect of non-linearity in predicting doppler waveforms through a novel model

PubMed Central

Gayasen, Aman; Dua, Sunil Kumar; Sengupta, Amit; Nagchoudhuri, D

2003-01-01

Background In pregnancy, the uteroplacental vascular system develops de novo locally in utero and a systemic haemodynamic & bio-rheological alteration accompany it. Any abnormality in the non-linear vascular system is believed to trigger the onset of serious morbid conditions like pre-eclampsia and/or intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR). Exact Aetiopathogenesis is unknown. Advancement in the field of non-invasive doppler image analysis and simulation incorporating non-linearities may unfold the complexities associated with the inaccessible uteroplacental vessels. Earlier modeling approaches approximate it as a linear system. Method We proposed a novel electrical model for the uteroplacental system that uses MOSFETs as non-linear elements in place of traditional linear transmission line (TL) model. The model to simulate doppler FVW's was designed by including the inputs from our non-linear mathematical model. While using the MOSFETs as voltage-controlled switches, a fair degree of controlled-non-linearity has been introduced in the model. Comparative analysis was done between the simulated data and the actual doppler FVW's waveforms. Results & Discussion Normal pregnancy has been successfully modeled and the doppler output waveforms are simulated for different gestation time using the model. It is observed that the dicrotic notch disappears and the S/D ratio decreases as the pregnancy matures. Both these results are established clinical facts. Effects of blood density, viscosity and the arterial wall elasticity on the blood flow velocity profile were also studied. Spectral analysis on the output of the model (blood flow velocity) indicated that the Total Harmonic Distortion (THD) falls during the mid-gestation. Conclusion Total harmonic distortion (THD) is found to be informative in determining the Feto-maternal health. Effects of the blood density, the viscosity and the elasticity changes on the blood FVW are simulated. Future works are expected to concentrate mainly on improving the load with respect to varying non-linear parameters in the model. Heart rate variability, which accounts for the vascular tone, should also be included. We also expect the model to initiate extensive clinical or experimental studies in the near future. PMID:14561227

Subgrid-scale Condensation Modeling for Entropy-based Large Eddy Simulations of Clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaul, C. M.; Schneider, T.; Pressel, K. G.; Tan, Z.

2015-12-01

An entropy- and total water-based formulation of LES thermodynamics, such as that used by the recently developed code PyCLES, is advantageous from physical and numerical perspectives. However, existing closures for subgrid-scale thermodynamic fluctuations assume more traditional choices for prognostic thermodynamic variables, such as liquid potential temperature, and are not directly applicable to entropy-based modeling. Since entropy and total water are generally nonlinearly related to diagnosed quantities like temperature and condensate amounts, neglecting their small-scale variability can lead to bias in simulation results. Here we present the development of a subgrid-scale condensation model suitable for use with entropy-based thermodynamic formulations.

A joint modeling and estimation method for multivariate longitudinal data with mixed types of responses to analyze physical activity data generated by accelerometers.

PubMed

Li, Haocheng; Zhang, Yukun; Carroll, Raymond J; Keadle, Sarah Kozey; Sampson, Joshua N; Matthews, Charles E

2017-11-10

A mixed effect model is proposed to jointly analyze multivariate longitudinal data with continuous, proportion, count, and binary responses. The association of the variables is modeled through the correlation of random effects. We use a quasi-likelihood type approximation for nonlinear variables and transform the proposed model into a multivariate linear mixed model framework for estimation and inference. Via an extension to the EM approach, an efficient algorithm is developed to fit the model. The method is applied to physical activity data, which uses a wearable accelerometer device to measure daily movement and energy expenditure information. Our approach is also evaluated by a simulation study. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Mixed convection flow of viscoelastic fluid by a stretching cylinder with heat transfer.

PubMed

Hayat, Tasawar; Anwar, Muhammad Shoaib; Farooq, Muhammad; Alsaedi, Ahmad

2015-01-01

Flow of viscoelastic fluid due to an impermeable stretching cylinder is discussed. Effects of mixed convection and variable thermal conductivity are present. Thermal conductivity is taken temperature dependent. Nonlinear partial differential system is reduced into the nonlinear ordinary differential system. Resulting nonlinear system is computed for the convergent series solutions. Numerical values of skin friction coefficient and Nusselt number are computed and discussed. The results obtained with the current method are in agreement with previous studies using other methods as well as theoretical ideas. Physical interpretation reflecting the contribution of influential parameters in the present flow is presented. It is hoped that present study serves as a stimulus for modeling further stretching flows especially in polymeric and paper production processes.

Mixed Convection Flow of Viscoelastic Fluid by a Stretching Cylinder with Heat Transfer

PubMed Central

Hayat, Tasawar; Anwar, Muhammad Shoaib; Farooq, Muhammad; Alsaedi, Ahmad

2015-01-01

Flow of viscoelastic fluid due to an impermeable stretching cylinder is discussed. Effects of mixed convection and variable thermal conductivity are present. Thermal conductivity is taken temperature dependent. Nonlinear partial differential system is reduced into the nonlinear ordinary differential system. Resulting nonlinear system is computed for the convergent series solutions. Numerical values of skin friction coefficient and Nusselt number are computed and discussed. The results obtained with the current method are in agreement with previous studies using other methods as well as theoretical ideas. Physical interpretation reflecting the contribution of influential parameters in the present flow is presented. It is hoped that present study serves as a stimulus for modeling further stretching flows especially in polymeric and paper production processes. PMID:25775032

A non-linear optimization programming model for air quality planning including co-benefits for GHG emissions.

PubMed

Turrini, Enrico; Carnevale, Claudio; Finzi, Giovanna; Volta, Marialuisa

2018-04-15

This paper introduces the MAQ (Multi-dimensional Air Quality) model aimed at defining cost-effective air quality plans at different scales (urban to national) and assessing the co-benefits for GHG emissions. The model implements and solves a non-linear multi-objective, multi-pollutant decision problem where the decision variables are the application levels of emission abatement measures allowing the reduction of energy consumption, end-of pipe technologies and fuel switch options. The objectives of the decision problem are the minimization of tropospheric secondary pollution exposure and of internal costs. The model assesses CO 2 equivalent emissions in order to support decision makers in the selection of win-win policies. The methodology is tested on Lombardy region, a heavily polluted area in northern Italy. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Metadynamics in the conformational space nonlinearly dimensionally reduced by Isomap.

PubMed

Spiwok, Vojtěch; Králová, Blanka

2011-12-14

Atomic motions in molecules are not linear. This infers that nonlinear dimensionality reduction methods can outperform linear ones in analysis of collective atomic motions. In addition, nonlinear collective motions can be used as potentially efficient guides for biased simulation techniques. Here we present a simulation with a bias potential acting in the directions of collective motions determined by a nonlinear dimensionality reduction method. Ad hoc generated conformations of trans,trans-1,2,4-trifluorocyclooctane were analyzed by Isomap method to map these 72-dimensional coordinates to three dimensions, as described by Brown and co-workers [J. Chem. Phys. 129, 064118 (2008)]. Metadynamics employing the three-dimensional embeddings as collective variables was applied to explore all relevant conformations of the studied system and to calculate its conformational free energy surface. The method sampled all relevant conformations (boat, boat-chair, and crown) and corresponding transition structures inaccessible by an unbiased simulation. This scheme allows to use essentially any parameter of the system as a collective variable in biased simulations. Moreover, the scheme we used for mapping out-of-sample conformations from the 72D to 3D space can be used as a general purpose mapping for dimensionality reduction, beyond the context of molecular modeling. © 2011 American Institute of Physics

Double symbolic joint entropy in nonlinear dynamic complexity analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yao, Wenpo; Wang, Jun

2017-07-01

Symbolizations, the base of symbolic dynamic analysis, are classified as global static and local dynamic approaches which are combined by joint entropy in our works for nonlinear dynamic complexity analysis. Two global static methods, symbolic transformations of Wessel N. symbolic entropy and base-scale entropy, and two local ones, namely symbolizations of permutation and differential entropy, constitute four double symbolic joint entropies that have accurate complexity detections in chaotic models, logistic and Henon map series. In nonlinear dynamical analysis of different kinds of heart rate variability, heartbeats of healthy young have higher complexity than those of the healthy elderly, and congestive heart failure (CHF) patients are lowest in heartbeats' joint entropy values. Each individual symbolic entropy is improved by double symbolic joint entropy among which the combination of base-scale and differential symbolizations have best complexity analysis. Test results prove that double symbolic joint entropy is feasible in nonlinear dynamic complexity analysis.

Nonlinear dynamics in flow through unsaturated fractured-porous media: Status and perspectives

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Faybishenko, Boris

2002-11-27

The need has long been recognized to improve predictions of flow and transport in partially saturated heterogeneous soils and fractured rock of the vadose zone for many practical applications, such as remediation of contaminated sites, nuclear waste disposal in geological formations, and climate predictions. Until recently, flow and transport processes in heterogeneous subsurface media with oscillating irregularities were assumed to be random and were not analyzed using methods of nonlinear dynamics. The goals of this paper are to review the theoretical concepts, present the results, and provide perspectives on investigations of flow and transport in unsaturated heterogeneous soils and fracturedmore » rock, using the methods of nonlinear dynamics and deterministic chaos. The results of laboratory and field investigations indicate that the nonlinear dynamics of flow and transport processes in unsaturated soils and fractured rocks arise from the dynamic feedback and competition between various nonlinear physical processes along with complex geometry of flow paths. Although direct measurements of variables characterizing the individual flow processes are not technically feasible, their cumulative effect can be characterized by analyzing time series data using the models and methods of nonlinear dynamics and chaos. Identifying flow through soil or rock as a nonlinear dynamical system is important for developing appropriate short- and long-time predictive models, evaluating prediction uncertainty, assessing the spatial distribution of flow characteristics from time series data, and improving chemical transport simulations. Inferring the nature of flow processes through the methods of nonlinear dynamics could become widely used in different areas of the earth sciences.« less

Neutron star dynamics under time dependent external torques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alpar, M. A.; Gügercinoğlu, E.

2017-12-01

The two component model of neutron star dynamics describing the behaviour of the observed crust coupled to the superfluid interior has so far been applied to radio pulsars for which the external torques are constant on dynamical timescales. We recently solved this problem under arbitrary time dependent external torques. Our solutions pertain to internal torques that are linear in the rotation rates, as well as to the extremely non-linear internal torques of the vortex creep model. Two-component models with linear or nonlinear internal torques can now be applied to magnetars and to neutron stars in binary systems, with strong variability and timing noise. Time dependent external torques can be obtained from the observed spin-down (or spin-up) time series, \\dot Ω ≤ft( t \\right).

Spatial distribution estimation of malaria in northern China and its scenarios in 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050.

PubMed

Song, Yongze; Ge, Yong; Wang, Jinfeng; Ren, Zhoupeng; Liao, Yilan; Peng, Junhuan

2016-07-07

Malaria is one of the most severe parasitic diseases in the world. Spatial distribution estimation of malaria and its future scenarios are important issues for malaria control and elimination. Furthermore, sophisticated nonlinear relationships for prediction between malaria incidence and potential variables have not been well constructed in previous research. This study aims to estimate these nonlinear relationships and predict future malaria scenarios in northern China. Nonlinear relationships between malaria incidence and predictor variables were constructed using a genetic programming (GP) method, to predict the spatial distributions of malaria under climate change scenarios. For this, the examples of monthly average malaria incidence were used in each county of northern China from 2004 to 2010. Among the five variables at county level, precipitation rate and temperature are used for projections, while elevation, water density index, and gross domestic product are held at their present-day values. Average malaria incidence was 0.107 ‰ per annum in northern China, with incidence characteristics in significant spatial clustering. A GP-based model fit the relationships with average relative error (ARE) = 8.127 % for training data (R(2) = 0.825) and 17.102 % for test data (R(2) = 0.532). The fitness of GP results are significantly improved compared with those by generalized additive models (GAM) and linear regressions. With the future precipitation rate and temperature conditions in Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) family B1, A1B and A2 scenarios, spatial distributions and changes in malaria incidences in 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 were predicted and mapped. The GP method increases the precision of predicting the spatial distribution of malaria incidence. With the assumption of varied precipitation rate and temperature, and other variables controlled, the relationships between incidence and the varied variables appear sophisticated nonlinearity and spatially differentiation. Using the future fluctuated precipitation and the increased temperature, median malaria incidence in 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 would significantly increase that it might increase 19 to 29 % in 2020, but currently China is in the malaria elimination phase, indicating that the effective strategies and actions had been taken. While the mean incidences will not increase even reduce due to the incidence reduction in high-risk regions but the simultaneous expansion of the high-risk areas.

Characterization of depressive States in bipolar patients using wearable textile technology and instantaneous heart rate variability assessment.

PubMed

Valenza, Gaetano; Citi, Luca; Gentili, Claudio; Lanata, Antonio; Scilingo, Enzo Pasquale; Barbieri, Riccardo

2015-01-01

The analysis of cognitive and autonomic responses to emotionally relevant stimuli could provide a viable solution for the automatic recognition of different mood states, both in normal and pathological conditions. In this study, we present a methodological application describing a novel system based on wearable textile technology and instantaneous nonlinear heart rate variability assessment, able to characterize the autonomic status of bipolar patients by considering only electrocardiogram recordings. As a proof of this concept, our study presents results obtained from eight bipolar patients during their normal daily activities and being elicited according to a specific emotional protocol through the presentation of emotionally relevant pictures. Linear and nonlinear features were computed using a novel point-process-based nonlinear autoregressive integrative model and compared with traditional algorithmic methods. The estimated indices were used as the input of a multilayer perceptron to discriminate the depressive from the euthymic status. Results show that our system achieves much higher accuracy than the traditional techniques. Moreover, the inclusion of instantaneous higher order spectra features significantly improves the accuracy in successfully recognizing depression from euthymia.

An energy balance model exploration of the impacts of interactions between surface albedo, cloud cover and water vapor on polar amplification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Södergren, A. Helena; McDonald, Adrian J.; Bodeker, Gregory E.

2017-11-01

We examine the effects of non-linear interactions between surface albedo, water vapor and cloud cover (referred to as climate variables) on amplified warming of the polar regions, using a new energy balance model. Our simulations show that the sum of the contributions to surface temperature changes due to any variable considered in isolation is smaller than the temperature changes from coupled feedback simulations. This non-linearity is strongest when all three climate variables are allowed to interact. Surface albedo appears to be the strongest driver of this non-linear behavior, followed by water vapor and clouds. This is because increases in longwave radiation absorbed by the surface, related to increases in water vapor and clouds, and increases in surface absorbed shortwave radiation caused by a decrease in surface albedo, amplify each other. Furthermore, our results corroborate previous findings that while increases in cloud cover and water vapor, along with the greenhouse effect itself, warm the polar regions, water vapor also significantly warms equatorial regions, which reduces polar amplification. Changes in surface albedo drive large changes in absorption of incoming shortwave radiation, thereby enhancing surface warming. Unlike high latitudes, surface albedo change at low latitudes are more constrained. Interactions between surface albedo, water vapor and clouds drive larger increases in temperatures in the polar regions compared to low latitudes. This is in spite of the fact that, due to a forcing, cloud cover increases at high latitudes and decreases in low latitudes, and that water vapor significantly enhances warming at low latitudes.

Linear parameter varying representations for nonlinear control design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carter, Lance Huntington

Linear parameter varying (LPV) systems are investigated as a framework for gain-scheduled control design and optimal hybrid control. An LPV system is defined as a linear system whose dynamics depend upon an a priori unknown but measurable exogenous parameter. A gain-scheduled autopilot design is presented for a bank-to-turn (BTT) missile. The method is novel in that the gain-scheduled design does not involve linearizations about operating points. Instead, the missile dynamics are brought to LPV form via a state transformation. This idea is applied to the design of a coupled longitudinal/lateral BTT missile autopilot. The pitch and yaw/roll dynamics are separately transformed to LPV form, where the cross axis states are treated as "exogenous" parameters. These are actually endogenous variables, so such a plant is called "quasi-LPV." Once in quasi-LPV form, a family of robust controllers using mu synthesis is designed for both the pitch and yaw/roll channels, using angle-of-attack and roll rate as the scheduling variables. The closed-loop time response is simulated using the original nonlinear model and also using perturbed aerodynamic coefficients. Modeling and control of engine idle speed is investigated using LPV methods. It is shown how generalized discrete nonlinear systems may be transformed into quasi-LPV form. A discrete nonlinear engine model is developed and expressed in quasi-LPV form with engine speed as the scheduling variable. An example control design is presented using linear quadratic methods. Simulations are shown comparing the LPV based controller performance to that using PID control. LPV representations are also shown to provide a setting for hybrid systems. A hybrid system is characterized by control inputs consisting of both analog signals and discrete actions. A solution is derived for the optimal control of hybrid systems with generalized cost functions. This is shown to be computationally intensive, so a suboptimal strategy is proposed that neglects a subset of possible parameter trajectories. A computational algorithm is constructed for this suboptimal solution applied to a class of linear non-quadratic cost functions.

Soft sensor modelling by time difference, recursive partial least squares and adaptive model updating

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, Y.; Yang, W.; Xu, O.; Zhou, L.; Wang, J.

2017-04-01

To investigate time-variant and nonlinear characteristics in industrial processes, a soft sensor modelling method based on time difference, moving-window recursive partial least square (PLS) and adaptive model updating is proposed. In this method, time difference values of input and output variables are used as training samples to construct the model, which can reduce the effects of the nonlinear characteristic on modelling accuracy and retain the advantages of recursive PLS algorithm. To solve the high updating frequency of the model, a confidence value is introduced, which can be updated adaptively according to the results of the model performance assessment. Once the confidence value is updated, the model can be updated. The proposed method has been used to predict the 4-carboxy-benz-aldehyde (CBA) content in the purified terephthalic acid (PTA) oxidation reaction process. The results show that the proposed soft sensor modelling method can reduce computation effectively, improve prediction accuracy by making use of process information and reflect the process characteristics accurately.

The impact of composite AUC estimates on the prediction of systemic exposure in toxicology experiments.

PubMed

Sahota, Tarjinder; Danhof, Meindert; Della Pasqua, Oscar

2015-06-01

Current toxicity protocols relate measures of systemic exposure (i.e. AUC, Cmax) as obtained by non-compartmental analysis to observed toxicity. A complicating factor in this practice is the potential bias in the estimates defining safe drug exposure. Moreover, it prevents the assessment of variability. The objective of the current investigation was therefore (a) to demonstrate the feasibility of applying nonlinear mixed effects modelling for the evaluation of toxicokinetics and (b) to assess the bias and accuracy in summary measures of systemic exposure for each method. Here, simulation scenarios were evaluated, which mimic toxicology protocols in rodents. To ensure differences in pharmacokinetic properties are accounted for, hypothetical drugs with varying disposition properties were considered. Data analysis was performed using non-compartmental methods and nonlinear mixed effects modelling. Exposure levels were expressed as area under the concentration versus time curve (AUC), peak concentrations (Cmax) and time above a predefined threshold (TAT). Results were then compared with the reference values to assess the bias and precision of parameter estimates. Higher accuracy and precision were observed for model-based estimates (i.e. AUC, Cmax and TAT), irrespective of group or treatment duration, as compared with non-compartmental analysis. Despite the focus of guidelines on establishing safety thresholds for the evaluation of new molecules in humans, current methods neglect uncertainty, lack of precision and bias in parameter estimates. The use of nonlinear mixed effects modelling for the analysis of toxicokinetics provides insight into variability and should be considered for predicting safe exposure in humans.

Optimal design of stimulus experiments for robust discrimination of biochemical reaction networks.

PubMed

Flassig, R J; Sundmacher, K

2012-12-01

Biochemical reaction networks in the form of coupled ordinary differential equations (ODEs) provide a powerful modeling tool for understanding the dynamics of biochemical processes. During the early phase of modeling, scientists have to deal with a large pool of competing nonlinear models. At this point, discrimination experiments can be designed and conducted to obtain optimal data for selecting the most plausible model. Since biological ODE models have widely distributed parameters due to, e.g. biologic variability or experimental variations, model responses become distributed. Therefore, a robust optimal experimental design (OED) for model discrimination can be used to discriminate models based on their response probability distribution functions (PDFs). In this work, we present an optimal control-based methodology for designing optimal stimulus experiments aimed at robust model discrimination. For estimating the time-varying model response PDF, which results from the nonlinear propagation of the parameter PDF under the ODE dynamics, we suggest using the sigma-point approach. Using the model overlap (expected likelihood) as a robust discrimination criterion to measure dissimilarities between expected model response PDFs, we benchmark the proposed nonlinear design approach against linearization with respect to prediction accuracy and design quality for two nonlinear biological reaction networks. As shown, the sigma-point outperforms the linearization approach in the case of widely distributed parameter sets and/or existing multiple steady states. Since the sigma-point approach scales linearly with the number of model parameter, it can be applied to large systems for robust experimental planning. An implementation of the method in MATLAB/AMPL is available at http://www.uni-magdeburg.de/ivt/svt/person/rf/roed.html. flassig@mpi-magdeburg.mpg.de Supplementary data are are available at Bioinformatics online.

Numerical investigation for entropy generation in hydromagnetic flow of fluid with variable properties and slip

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, M. Ijaz; Hayat, Tasawar; Alsaedi, Ahmed

2018-02-01

This modeling and computations present the study of viscous fluid flow with variable properties by a rotating stretchable disk. Rotating flow is generated through nonlinear rotating stretching surface. Nonlinear thermal radiation and heat generation/absorption are studied. Flow is conducting for a constant applied magnetic field. No polarization is taken. Induced magnetic field is not taken into account. Attention is focused on the entropy generation rate and Bejan number. The entropy generation rate and Bejan number clearly depend on velocity and thermal fields. The von Kármán approach is utilized to convert the partial differential expressions into ordinary ones. These expressions are non-dimensionalized, and numerical results are obtained for flow variables. The effects of the magnetic parameter, Prandtl number, radiative parameter, heat generation/absorption parameter, and slip parameter on velocity and temperature fields as well as the entropy generation rate and Bejan number are discussed. Drag forces (radial and tangential) and heat transfer rates are calculated and discussed. Furthermore the entropy generation rate is a decreasing function of magnetic variable and Reynolds number. The Bejan number effect on the entropy generation rate is reverse to that of the magnetic variable. Also opposite behavior of heat transfers is observed for varying estimations of radiative and slip variables.

The use of neural network technology to model swimming performance.

PubMed

Silva, António José; Costa, Aldo Manuel; Oliveira, Paulo Moura; Reis, Victor Machado; Saavedra, José; Perl, Jurgen; Rouboa, Abel; Marinho, Daniel Almeida

2007-01-01

to identify the factors which are able to explain the performance in the 200 meters individual medley and 400 meters front crawl events in young swimmers, to model the performance in those events using non-linear mathematic methods through artificial neural networks (multi-layer perceptrons) and to assess the neural network models precision to predict the performance. A sample of 138 young swimmers (65 males and 73 females) of national level was submitted to a test battery comprising four different domains: kinanthropometric evaluation, dry land functional evaluation (strength and flexibility), swimming functional evaluation (hydrodynamics, hydrostatic and bioenergetics characteristics) and swimming technique evaluation. To establish a profile of the young swimmer non-linear combinations between preponderant variables for each gender and swim performance in the 200 meters medley and 400 meters font crawl events were developed. For this purpose a feed forward neural network was used (Multilayer Perceptron) with three neurons in a single hidden layer. The prognosis precision of the model (error lower than 0.8% between true and estimated performances) is supported by recent evidence. Therefore, we consider that the neural network tool can be a good approach in the resolution of complex problems such as performance modeling and the talent identification in swimming and, possibly, in a wide variety of sports. Key pointsThe non-linear analysis resulting from the use of feed forward neural network allowed us the development of four performance models.The mean difference between the true and estimated results performed by each one of the four neural network models constructed was low.The neural network tool can be a good approach in the resolution of the performance modeling as an alternative to the standard statistical models that presume well-defined distributions and independence among all inputs.The use of neural networks for sports sciences application allowed us to create very realistic models for swimming performance prediction based on previous selected criterions that were related with the dependent variable (performance).

Development and evaluation of height diameter at breast models for native Chinese Metasequoia.

PubMed

Liu, Mu; Feng, Zhongke; Zhang, Zhixiang; Ma, Chenghui; Wang, Mingming; Lian, Bo-Ling; Sun, Renjie; Zhang, Li

2017-01-01

Accurate tree height and diameter at breast height (dbh) are important input variables for growth and yield models. A total of 5503 Chinese Metasequoia trees were used in this study. We studied 53 fitted models, of which 7 were linear models and 46 were non-linear models. These models were divided into two groups of single models and multivariate models according to the number of independent variables. The results show that the allometry equation of tree height which has diameter at breast height as independent variable can better reflect the change of tree height; in addition the prediction accuracy of the multivariate composite models is higher than that of the single variable models. Although tree age is not the most important variable in the study of the relationship between tree height and dbh, the consideration of tree age when choosing models and parameters in model selection can make the prediction of tree height more accurate. The amount of data is also an important parameter what can improve the reliability of models. Other variables such as tree height, main dbh and altitude, etc can also affect models. In this study, the method of developing the recommended models for predicting the tree height of native Metasequoias aged 50-485 years is statistically reliable and can be used for reference in predicting the growth and production of mature native Metasequoia.

Development and evaluation of height diameter at breast models for native Chinese Metasequoia

PubMed Central

Feng, Zhongke; Zhang, Zhixiang; Ma, Chenghui; Wang, Mingming; Lian, Bo-ling; Sun, Renjie; Zhang, Li

2017-01-01

Accurate tree height and diameter at breast height (dbh) are important input variables for growth and yield models. A total of 5503 Chinese Metasequoia trees were used in this study. We studied 53 fitted models, of which 7 were linear models and 46 were non-linear models. These models were divided into two groups of single models and multivariate models according to the number of independent variables. The results show that the allometry equation of tree height which has diameter at breast height as independent variable can better reflect the change of tree height; in addition the prediction accuracy of the multivariate composite models is higher than that of the single variable models. Although tree age is not the most important variable in the study of the relationship between tree height and dbh, the consideration of tree age when choosing models and parameters in model selection can make the prediction of tree height more accurate. The amount of data is also an important parameter what can improve the reliability of models. Other variables such as tree height, main dbh and altitude, etc can also affect models. In this study, the method of developing the recommended models for predicting the tree height of native Metasequoias aged 50–485 years is statistically reliable and can be used for reference in predicting the growth and production of mature native Metasequoia. PMID:28817600

Response Surface Modeling Using Multivariate Orthogonal Functions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morelli, Eugene A.; DeLoach, Richard

2001-01-01

A nonlinear modeling technique was used to characterize response surfaces for non-dimensional longitudinal aerodynamic force and moment coefficients, based on wind tunnel data from a commercial jet transport model. Data were collected using two experimental procedures - one based on modem design of experiments (MDOE), and one using a classical one factor at a time (OFAT) approach. The nonlinear modeling technique used multivariate orthogonal functions generated from the independent variable data as modeling functions in a least squares context to characterize the response surfaces. Model terms were selected automatically using a prediction error metric. Prediction error bounds computed from the modeling data alone were found to be- a good measure of actual prediction error for prediction points within the inference space. Root-mean-square model fit error and prediction error were less than 4 percent of the mean response value in all cases. Efficacy and prediction performance of the response surface models identified from both MDOE and OFAT experiments were investigated.

Nonlinear digital signal processing in mental health: characterization of major depression using instantaneous entropy measures of heartbeat dynamics.

PubMed

Valenza, Gaetano; Garcia, Ronald G; Citi, Luca; Scilingo, Enzo P; Tomaz, Carlos A; Barbieri, Riccardo

2015-01-01

Nonlinear digital signal processing methods that address system complexity have provided useful computational tools for helping in the diagnosis and treatment of a wide range of pathologies. More specifically, nonlinear measures have been successful in characterizing patients with mental disorders such as Major Depression (MD). In this study, we propose the use of instantaneous measures of entropy, namely the inhomogeneous point-process approximate entropy (ipApEn) and the inhomogeneous point-process sample entropy (ipSampEn), to describe a novel characterization of MD patients undergoing affective elicitation. Because these measures are built within a nonlinear point-process model, they allow for the assessment of complexity in cardiovascular dynamics at each moment in time. Heartbeat dynamics were characterized from 48 healthy controls and 48 patients with MD while emotionally elicited through either neutral or arousing audiovisual stimuli. Experimental results coming from the arousing tasks show that ipApEn measures are able to instantaneously track heartbeat complexity as well as discern between healthy subjects and MD patients. Conversely, standard heart rate variability (HRV) analysis performed in both time and frequency domains did not show any statistical significance. We conclude that measures of entropy based on nonlinear point-process models might contribute to devising useful computational tools for care in mental health.

Batch process fault detection and identification based on discriminant global preserving kernel slow feature analysis.

PubMed

Zhang, Hanyuan; Tian, Xuemin; Deng, Xiaogang; Cao, Yuping

2018-05-16

As an attractive nonlinear dynamic data analysis tool, global preserving kernel slow feature analysis (GKSFA) has achieved great success in extracting the high nonlinearity and inherently time-varying dynamics of batch process. However, GKSFA is an unsupervised feature extraction method and lacks the ability to utilize batch process class label information, which may not offer the most effective means for dealing with batch process monitoring. To overcome this problem, we propose a novel batch process monitoring method based on the modified GKSFA, referred to as discriminant global preserving kernel slow feature analysis (DGKSFA), by closely integrating discriminant analysis and GKSFA. The proposed DGKSFA method can extract discriminant feature of batch process as well as preserve global and local geometrical structure information of observed data. For the purpose of fault detection, a monitoring statistic is constructed based on the distance between the optimal kernel feature vectors of test data and normal data. To tackle the challenging issue of nonlinear fault variable identification, a new nonlinear contribution plot method is also developed to help identifying the fault variable after a fault is detected, which is derived from the idea of variable pseudo-sample trajectory projection in DGKSFA nonlinear biplot. Simulation results conducted on a numerical nonlinear dynamic system and the benchmark fed-batch penicillin fermentation process demonstrate that the proposed process monitoring and fault diagnosis approach can effectively detect fault and distinguish fault variables from normal variables. Copyright © 2018 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Modeling Investigation of Thermal and Strain Induced Recovery and Nonlinear Hardening in Potential Based Viscoplasticity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arnold, S. M.; Saleeb, A. F.; Wilt, T. E.

1993-01-01

Specific forms for both the Gibb's and the complementary dissipation potentials were chosen such that a complete potential based multiaxial, isothermal, viscoplastic model was obtained. This model in general possesses three internal state variables (two scalars associated with dislocation density and one tensor associated with dislocation motion) both thermal and dynamic recovery mechanisms, and nonlinear kinematic hardening. This general model, although possessing associated flow and evolutionary laws, is shown to emulate three distinct classes of theories found in the literature, by modification of the driving threshold function F. A parametric study was performed on a specialized nondimensional multiaxial form containing only a single tensorial internal state variable (i.e., internal stress). The study was conducted with the idea of examining the impact of including a strain-induced recovery mechanism and the compliance operator, derived from the Gibb's potential, on the uniaxial and multiaxial response. One important finding was that inclusion of strain recovery provided the needed flexibility in modeling stress-strain and creep response of metals at low homologous temperatures, without adversely affecting the high temperature response. Furthermore, for nonproportional loading paths, the inclusion of the compliance operator had a significant influence on the multiaxial response, but had no influence on either uniaxial or proportional load histories.

Downscaling scheme to drive soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schomburg, Annika; Venema, Victor; Lindau, Ralf; Ament, Felix; Simmer, Clemens

2010-05-01

The earth's surface is characterized by heterogeneity at a broad range of scales. Weather forecast models and climate models are not able to resolve this heterogeneity at the smaller scales. Many processes in the soil or at the surface, however, are highly nonlinear. This holds, for example, for evaporation processes, where stomata or aerodynamic resistances are nonlinear functions of the local micro-climate. Other examples are threshold dependent processes, e.g., the generation of runoff or the melting of snow. It has been shown that using averaged parameters in the computation of these processes leads to errors and especially biases, due to the involved nonlinearities. Thus it is necessary to account for the sub-grid scale surface heterogeneities in atmospheric modeling. One approach to take the variability of the earth's surface into account is the mosaic approach. Here the soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer (SVAT) model is run on an explicit higher resolution than the atmospheric part of a coupled model, which is feasible due to generally lower computational costs of a SVAT model compared to the atmospheric part. The question arises how to deal with the scale differences at the interface between the two resolutions. Usually the assumption of a homogeneous forcing for all sub-pixels is made. However, over a heterogeneous surface, usually the boundary layer is also heterogeneous. Thus, by assuming a constant atmospheric forcing again biases in the turbulent heat fluxes may occur due to neglected atmospheric forcing variability. Therefore we have developed and tested a downscaling scheme to disaggregate the atmospheric variables of the lower atmosphere that are used as input to force a SVAT model. Our downscaling scheme consists of three steps: 1) a bi-quadratic spline interpolation of the coarse-resolution field; 2) a "deterministic" part, where relationships between surface and near-surface variables are exploited; and 3) a noise-generation step, in which the still missing, not explained, variance is added as noise. The scheme has been developed and tested based on high-resolution (400 m) model output of the weather forecast (and regional climate) COSMO model. Downscaling steps 1 and 2 reduce the error made by the homogeneous assumption considerably, whereas the third step leads to close agreement of the sub-grid scale variance with the reference. This is, however, achieved at the cost of higher root mean square errors. Thus, before applying the downscaling system to atmospheric data a decision should be made whether the lowest possible errors (apply only downscaling step 1 and 2) or a most realistic sub-grid scale variability (apply also step 3) is desired. This downscaling scheme is currently being implemented into the COSMO model, where it will be used in combination with the mosaic approach. However, this downscaling scheme can also be applied to drive stand-alone SVAT models or hydrological models, which usually also need high-resolution atmospheric forcing data.

Association between climate variability and malaria epidemics in the East African highlands.

PubMed

Zhou, Guofa; Minakawa, Noboru; Githeko, Andrew K; Yan, Guiyun

2004-02-24

The causes of the recent reemergence of Plasmodium falciparum epidemic malaria in the East African highlands are controversial. Regional climate changes have been invoked as a major factor; however, assessing the impact of climate in malaria resurgence is difficult due to high spatial and temporal climate variability and the lack of long-term data series on malaria cases from different sites. Climate variability, defined as short-term fluctuations around the mean climate state, may be epidemiologically more relevant than mean temperature change, but its effects on malaria epidemics have not been rigorously examined. Here we used nonlinear mixed-regression model to investigate the association between autoregression (number of malaria outpatients during the previous time period), seasonality and climate variability, and the number of monthly malaria outpatients of the past 10-20 years in seven highland sites in East Africa. The model explained 65-81% of the variance in the number of monthly malaria outpatients. Nonlinear and synergistic effects of temperature and rainfall on the number of malaria outpatients were found in all seven sites. The net variance in the number of monthly malaria outpatients caused by autoregression and seasonality varied among sites and ranged from 18 to 63% (mean=38.6%), whereas 12-63% (mean=36.1%) of variance is attributed to climate variability. Our results suggest that there was a high spatial variation in the sensitivity of malaria outpatient number to climate fluctuations in the highlands, and that climate variability played an important role in initiating malaria epidemics in the East African highlands.

Alternatives for jet engine control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sain, M. K.

1980-01-01

Nonlinear modeling researches involving the use of tensor analysis are presented. Progress was achieved by extending the studies to a controlled equation and by considering more complex situations. Included in the report are calculations illustrating the modeling methodology for cases in which variables take values in real spaces of dimension up to three, and in which the degree of tensor term retention is as high as three.

Nonlinear responses of southern African rainfall to forcing from Atlantic SST in a high-resolution regional climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, C.; Kniveton, D.; Layberry, R.

2009-04-01

It is increasingly accepted that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. A change in the distribution and magnitude of extreme rainfall events (associated with changing variability), such as droughts or flooding, may have a far greater impact on human and natural systems than a changing mean. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The subcontinent is considered especially vulnerable to and ill-equipped (in terms of adaptation) for extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, famine, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. In this research, high resolution satellite derived rainfall data from the Microwave Infra-Red Algorithm (MIRA) are used as a basis for undertaking model experiments using a state-of-the-art regional climate model. The MIRA dataset covers the period from 1993-2002 and the whole of southern Africa at a spatial resolution of 0.1 degree longitude/latitude. Once the model's ability to reproduce extremes has been assessed, idealised regions of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are used to force the model, with the overall aim of investigating the ways in which SST anomalies influence rainfall extremes over southern Africa. In this paper, results from sensitivity testing of the regional climate model's domain size are briefly presented, before a comparison of simulated daily rainfall from the model with the satellite-derived dataset. Secondly, simulations of current climate and rainfall extremes from the model are compared to the MIRA dataset at daily timescales. Finally, the results from the idealised SST experiments are presented, suggesting highly nonlinear associations between rainfall extremes remote SST anomalies.

A downscaling scheme for atmospheric variables to drive soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schomburg, A.; Venema, V.; Lindau, R.; Ament, F.; Simmer, C.

2010-09-01

For driving soil-vegetation-transfer models or hydrological models, high-resolution atmospheric forcing data is needed. For most applications the resolution of atmospheric model output is too coarse. To avoid biases due to the non-linear processes, a downscaling system should predict the unresolved variability of the atmospheric forcing. For this purpose we derived a disaggregation system consisting of three steps: (1) a bi-quadratic spline-interpolation of the low-resolution data, (2) a so-called `deterministic' part, based on statistical rules between high-resolution surface variables and the desired atmospheric near-surface variables and (3) an autoregressive noise-generation step. The disaggregation system has been developed and tested based on high-resolution model output (400m horizontal grid spacing). A novel automatic search-algorithm has been developed for deriving the deterministic downscaling rules of step 2. When applied to the atmospheric variables of the lowest layer of the atmospheric COSMO-model, the disaggregation is able to adequately reconstruct the reference fields. Applying downscaling step 1 and 2, root mean square errors are decreased. Step 3 finally leads to a close match of the subgrid variability and temporal autocorrelation with the reference fields. The scheme can be applied to the output of atmospheric models, both for stand-alone offline simulations, and a fully coupled model system.

A linear and nonlinear study of Mira

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cox, A. N.; Ostlie, D. A.

1993-12-01

Both linear and nonlinear calculations of the 331 day, long period variable star Mira have been undertaken to see what radial pulsation mode is naturally selected. Models are similar to those considered in the linear nonadiabatic stellar pulsation study of Ostlie and Cox (1986). Models are considered with masses near one solar mass, luminosities between 4000 and 5000 solar luminosities, and effective temperatures of approximately 3000 K. These models have fundamental mode periods that closely match the pulsation period of Mira. The equation of state for the stellar material is given by the Stellingwerf (1975ab) procedure, and the opacity is obtained from a fit by Cahn that matches the low temperature molecular absorption data for the poplulation I Ross-Aller 1 mixture calculated from the Los Alamos Astrophysical Opacity Library. For the linear study, the Cox, Brownlee, and Eilers (1966) approximation is used for the linear theory variation of the convection luminosity. For the nonlinear work, the method described by Ostlie (1990) and Cox (1990) is followed. Results showing internal details of the radial fundamental and first overtone modes behavior in linear theory are presented. Preliminary radial fundamental mode nonlinear calculations are discussed. The very tentative conclusion is that neither the fundamental or first overtone mode is excluded from being the actual observed one.

Adaptive Control via Neural Output Feedback for a Class of Nonlinear Discrete-Time Systems in a Nested Interconnected Form.

PubMed

Li, Dong-Juan; Li, Da-Peng

2017-09-14

In this paper, an adaptive output feedback control is framed for uncertain nonlinear discrete-time systems. The considered systems are a class of multi-input multioutput nonaffine nonlinear systems, and they are in the nested lower triangular form. Furthermore, the unknown dead-zone inputs are nonlinearly embedded into the systems. These properties of the systems will make it very difficult and challenging to construct a stable controller. By introducing a new diffeomorphism coordinate transformation, the controlled system is first transformed into a state-output model. By introducing a group of new variables, an input-output model is finally obtained. Based on the transformed model, the implicit function theorem is used to determine the existence of the ideal controllers and the approximators are employed to approximate the ideal controllers. By using the mean value theorem, the nonaffine functions of systems can become an affine structure but nonaffine terms still exist. The adaptation auxiliary terms are skillfully designed to cancel the effect of the dead-zone input. Based on the Lyapunov difference theorem, the boundedness of all the signals in the closed-loop system can be ensured and the tracking errors are kept in a bounded compact set. The effectiveness of the proposed technique is checked by a simulation study.

Modeling turbidity and flow at daily steps in karst using ARIMA/ARFIMA-GARCH error models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Massei, N.

2013-12-01

Hydrological and physico-chemical variations recorded at karst springs usually reflect highly non-linear processes and the corresponding time series are then very often also highly non-linear. Among others, turbidity, as an important parameter regarding water quality and management, is a very complex response of karst systems to rain events, involving direct transfer of particles from point-source recharge as well as resuspension of particles previously deposited and stored within the system. For those reasons, turbidity modeling has not been well taken in karst hydrological models so far. Most of the time, the modeling approaches would involve stochastic linear models such ARIMA-type models and their derivatives (ARMA, ARMAX, ARIMAX, ARFIMA...). Yet, linear models usually fail to represent well the whole (stochastic) process variability, and their residuals still contain useful information that can be used to either understand the whole variability or to enhance short-term predictability and forecasting. Model residuals are actually not i.i.d., which can be identified by the fact that squared residuals still present clear and significant serial correlation. Indeed, high (low) amplitudes are followed in time by high (low) amplitudes, which can be seen on residuals time series as periods of time during which amplitudes are higher (lower) then the mean amplitude. This is known as the ARCH effet (AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity), and the corresponding non-linear process affecting residuals of a linear model can be modeled using ARCH or generalized ARCH (GARCH) non-linear modeling, which approaches are very well known in econometrics. Here we investigated the capability of ARIMA-GARCH error models to represent a ~20-yr daily turbidity time series recorded at a karst spring used for water supply of the city of Le Havre (Upper Normandy, France). ARIMA and ARFIMA models were used to represent the mean behavior of the time series and the residuals clearly appeared to present a pronounced ARCH effect, as confirmed by Ljung-Box and McLeod-Li tests. We then identified and fitted GARCH models to the residuals of ARIMA and ARFIMA models in order to model the conditional variance and volatility of the turbidity time series. The results eventually showed that serial correlation was succesfully removed in the last standardized residuals of the GARCH model, and hence that the ARIMA-GARCH error model appeared consistent for modeling such time series. The approach finally improved short-term (e.g a few steps-ahead) turbidity forecasting.

Can we quantify the variability of soil moisture across scales using Electromagnetic Induction ?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robinet, Jérémy; von Hebel, Christian; van der Kruk, Jan; Govers, Gerard; Vanderborght, Jan

2017-04-01

Soil moisture is a key variable in many natural processes. Therefore, technological and methodological advancements are of primary importance to provide accurate measurements of spatial and temporal variability of soil moisture. In that context, ElectroMagnetic Induction (EMI) instruments are often cited as a hydrogeophysical method with a large potential, through the measurement of the soil apparent electrical conductivity (ECa). To our knowledge, no studies have evaluated the potential of EMI to characterize variability of soil moisture on both agricultural and forested land covers in a (sub-) tropical environment. These differences in land use could be critical as differences in temperature, transpiration and root water uptake can have significant effect, notably on the electrical conductivity of the pore water. In this study, we used an EMI instrument to carry out a first assessment of the impact of deforestation and agriculture on soil moisture in a subtropical region in the south of Brazil. We selected slopes of different topographies (gentle vs. steep) and contrasting land uses (natural forest vs. agriculture) within two nearby catchments. At selected locations on the slopes, we measured simultaneously ECa using EMI and a depth-weighted average of the soil moisture using TDR probes installed within soil pits. We found that the temporal variability of the soil moisture could not be measured accurately with EMI, probably because of important temporal variations of the pore water electrical conductivity and the relatively small temporal variations in soil moisture content. However, we found that its spatial variability could be effectively quantified using a non-linear relationship, for both intra- and inter-slopes variations. Within slopes, the ECa could explained between 67 and 90% of the variability of the soil moisture, while a single non-linear model for all the slopes could explain 55% of the soil moisture variability. We eventually showed that combining a specific relationship for the most degraded slope (steep slope under agriculture) and a single relationship for all the other slopes, both non-linear relations, yielded the best results with an overall explained variance of 90%. We applied the latter model to measurements of the ECa along transects at the different slopes, which allowed us to highlight the strong control of topography on the soil moisture content. We also observed a significant impact of the land use with higher moisture content on the agricultural slopes, probably due to a reduced evapotranspiration.

Diffuse-interface model for rapid phase transformations in nonequilibrium systems.

PubMed

Galenko, Peter; Jou, David

2005-04-01

A thermodynamic approach to rapid phase transformations within a diffuse interface in a binary system is developed. Assuming an extended set of independent thermodynamic variables formed by the union of the classic set of slow variables and the space of fast variables, we introduce finiteness of the heat and solute diffusive propagation at the finite speed of the interface advancing. To describe transformations within the diffuse interface, we use the phase-field model which allows us to follow steep but smooth changes of phase within the width of the diffuse interface. Governing equations of the phase-field model are derived for the hyperbolic model, a model with memory, and a model of nonlinear evolution of transformation within the diffuse interface. The consistency of the model is proved by the verification of the validity of the condition of positive entropy production and by outcomes of the fluctuation-dissipation theorem. A comparison with existing sharp-interface and diffuse-interface versions of the model is given.

Apparently noninvariant terms of nonlinear sigma models in lattice perturbation theory

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Harada, Koji; Hattori, Nozomu; Kubo, Hirofumi

2009-03-15

Apparently noninvariant terms (ANTs) that appear in loop diagrams for nonlinear sigma models are revisited in lattice perturbation theory. The calculations have been done mostly with dimensional regularization so far. In order to establish that the existence of ANTs is independent of the regularization scheme, and of the potential ambiguities in the definition of the Jacobian of the change of integration variables from group elements to 'pion' fields, we employ lattice regularization, in which everything (including the Jacobian) is well defined. We show explicitly that lattice perturbation theory produces ANTs in the four-point functions of the pion fields at one-loopmore » and the Jacobian does not play an important role in generating ANTs.« less

Under which climate and soil conditions the plant productivity-precipitation relationship is linear or nonlinear?

PubMed

Ye, Jian-Sheng; Pei, Jiu-Ying; Fang, Chao

2018-03-01

Understanding under which climate and soil conditions the plant productivity-precipitation relationship is linear or nonlinear is useful for accurately predicting the response of ecosystem function to global environmental change. Using long-term (2000-2016) net primary productivity (NPP)-precipitation datasets derived from satellite observations, we identify >5600pixels in the North Hemisphere landmass that fit either linear or nonlinear temporal NPP-precipitation relationships. Differences in climate (precipitation, radiation, ratio of actual to potential evapotranspiration, temperature) and soil factors (nitrogen, phosphorous, organic carbon, field capacity) between the linear and nonlinear types are evaluated. Our analysis shows that both linear and nonlinear types exhibit similar interannual precipitation variabilities and occurrences of extreme precipitation. Permutational multivariate analysis of variance suggests that linear and nonlinear types differ significantly regarding to radiation, ratio of actual to potential evapotranspiration, and soil factors. The nonlinear type possesses lower radiation and/or less soil nutrients than the linear type, thereby suggesting that nonlinear type features higher degree of limitation from resources other than precipitation. This study suggests several factors limiting the responses of plant productivity to changes in precipitation, thus causing nonlinear NPP-precipitation pattern. Precipitation manipulation and modeling experiments should combine with changes in other climate and soil factors to better predict the response of plant productivity under future climate. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Kinetic Modeling of Corn Fermentation with S. cerevisiae Using a Variable Temperature Strategy.

PubMed

Souza, Augusto C M; Mousaviraad, Mohammad; Mapoka, Kenneth O M; Rosentrater, Kurt A

2018-04-24

While fermentation is usually done at a fixed temperature, in this study, the effect of having a controlled variable temperature was analyzed. A nonlinear system was used to model batch ethanol fermentation, using corn as substrate and the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae , at five different fixed and controlled variable temperatures. The lower temperatures presented higher ethanol yields but took a longer time to reach equilibrium. Higher temperatures had higher initial growth rates, but the decay of yeast cells was faster compared to the lower temperatures. However, in a controlled variable temperature model, the temperature decreased with time with the initial value of 40 ∘ C. When analyzing a time window of 60 h, the ethanol production increased 20% compared to the batch with the highest temperature; however, the yield was still 12% lower compared to the 20 ∘ C batch. When the 24 h’ simulation was analyzed, the controlled model had a higher ethanol concentration compared to both fixed temperature batches.

Adaptive Variability in Skilled Human Movements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kudo, Kazutoshi; Ohtsuki, Tatsuyuki

Human movements are produced in variable external/internal environments. Because of this variability, the same motor command can result in quite different movement patterns. Therefore, to produce skilled movements humans must coordinate the variability, not try to exclude it. In addition, because human movements are produced in redundant and complex systems, a combination of variability should be observed in different anatomical/physiological levels. In this paper, we introduce our research about human movement variability that shows remarkable coordination among components, and between organism and environment. We also introduce nonlinear dynamical models that can describe a variety of movements as a self-organization of a dynamical system, because the dynamical systems approach is a major candidate to understand the principle underlying organization of varying systems with huge degrees-of-freedom.

Variable camber wing based on pneumatic artificial muscles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Weilong; Liu, Libo; Chen, Yijin; Leng, Jinsong

2009-07-01

As a novel bionic actuator, pneumatic artificial muscle has high power to weight ratio. In this paper, a variable camber wing with the pneumatic artificial muscle is developed. Firstly, the experimental setup to measure the static output force of pneumatic artificial muscle is designed. The relationship between the static output force and the air pressure is investigated. Experimental result shows the static output force of pneumatic artificial muscle decreases nonlinearly with increasing contraction ratio. Secondly, the finite element model of the variable camber wing is developed. Numerical results show that the tip displacement of the trailing-edge increases linearly with increasing external load and limited with the maximum static output force of pneumatic artificial muscles. Finally, the variable camber wing model is manufactured to validate the variable camber concept. Experimental result shows that the wing camber increases with increasing air pressure and that it compare very well with the FEM result.

INDIRECT INTELLIGENT SLIDING MODE CONTROL OF A SHAPE MEMORY ALLOY ACTUATED FLEXIBLE BEAM USING HYSTERETIC RECURRENT NEURAL NETWORKS.

PubMed

Hannen, Jennifer C; Crews, John H; Buckner, Gregory D

2012-08-01

This paper introduces an indirect intelligent sliding mode controller (IISMC) for shape memory alloy (SMA) actuators, specifically a flexible beam deflected by a single offset SMA tendon. The controller manipulates applied voltage, which alters SMA tendon temperature to track reference bending angles. A hysteretic recurrent neural network (HRNN) captures the nonlinear, hysteretic relationship between SMA temperature and bending angle. The variable structure control strategy provides robustness to model uncertainties and parameter variations, while effectively compensating for system nonlinearities, achieving superior tracking compared to an optimized PI controller.

Application of the MNA design method to a nonlinear turbofan engine. [multivariable Nyquist array method

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Leininger, G. G.

1981-01-01

Using nonlinear digital simulation as a representative model of the dynamic operation of the QCSEE turbofan engine, a feedback control system is designed by variable frequency design techniques. Transfer functions are generated for each of five power level settings covering the range of operation from approach power to full throttle (62.5% to 100% full power). These transfer functions are then used by an interactive control system design synthesis program to provide a closed loop feedback control using the multivariable Nyquist array and extensions to multivariable Bode diagrams and Nichols charts.

A dynamic load estimation method for nonlinear structures with unscented Kalman filter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, L. N.; Ding, Y.; Wang, Z.; Xu, G. S.; Wu, B.

2018-02-01

A force estimation method is proposed for hysteretic nonlinear structures. The equation of motion for the nonlinear structure is represented in state space and the state variable is augmented by the unknown the time history of external force. Unscented Kalman filter (UKF) is improved for the force identification in state space considering the ill-condition characteristic in the computation of square roots for the covariance matrix. The proposed method is firstly validated by a numerical simulation study of a 3-storey nonlinear hysteretic frame excited by periodic force. Each storey is supposed to follow a nonlinear hysteretic model. The external force is identified and the measurement noise is considered in this case. Then a case of a seismically isolated building subjected to earthquake excitation and impact force is studied. The isolation layer performs nonlinearly during the earthquake excitation. Impact force between the seismically isolated structure and the retaining wall is estimated with the proposed method. Uncertainties such as measurement noise, model error in storey stiffness and unexpected environmental disturbances are considered. A real-time substructure testing of an isolated structure is conducted to verify the proposed method. In the experimental study, the linear main structure is taken as numerical substructure while the one of the isolations with additional mass is taken as the nonlinear physical substructure. The force applied by the actuator on the physical substructure is identified and compared with the measured value from the force transducer. The method proposed in this paper is also validated by shaking table test of a seismically isolated steel frame. The acceleration of the ground motion as the unknowns is identified by the proposed method. Results from both numerical simulation and experimental studies indicate that the UKF based force identification method can be used to identify external excitations effectively for the nonlinear structure with accurate results even with measurement noise, model error and environmental disturbances.

Systematic Computation of Nonlinear Cellular and Molecular Dynamics with Low-Power CytoMimetic Circuits: A Simulation Study

PubMed Central

Papadimitriou, Konstantinos I.; Stan, Guy-Bart V.; Drakakis, Emmanuel M.

2013-01-01

This paper presents a novel method for the systematic implementation of low-power microelectronic circuits aimed at computing nonlinear cellular and molecular dynamics. The method proposed is based on the Nonlinear Bernoulli Cell Formalism (NBCF), an advanced mathematical framework stemming from the Bernoulli Cell Formalism (BCF) originally exploited for the modular synthesis and analysis of linear, time-invariant, high dynamic range, logarithmic filters. Our approach identifies and exploits the striking similarities existing between the NBCF and coupled nonlinear ordinary differential equations (ODEs) typically appearing in models of naturally encountered biochemical systems. The resulting continuous-time, continuous-value, low-power CytoMimetic electronic circuits succeed in simulating fast and with good accuracy cellular and molecular dynamics. The application of the method is illustrated by synthesising for the first time microelectronic CytoMimetic topologies which simulate successfully: 1) a nonlinear intracellular calcium oscillations model for several Hill coefficient values and 2) a gene-protein regulatory system model. The dynamic behaviours generated by the proposed CytoMimetic circuits are compared and found to be in very good agreement with their biological counterparts. The circuits exploit the exponential law codifying the low-power subthreshold operation regime and have been simulated with realistic parameters from a commercially available CMOS process. They occupy an area of a fraction of a square-millimetre, while consuming between 1 and 12 microwatts of power. Simulations of fabrication-related variability results are also presented. PMID:23393550

Climate variability, rice production and groundwater depletion in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhargava, Alok

2018-03-01

This paper modeled the proximate determinants of rice outputs and groundwater depths in 27 Indian states during 1980-2010. Dynamic random effects models were estimated by maximum likelihood at state and well levels. The main findings from models for rice outputs were that temperatures and rainfall levels were significant predictors, and the relationships were quadratic with respect to rainfall. Moreover, nonlinearities with respect to population changes indicated greater rice production with population increases. Second, groundwater depths were positively associated with temperatures and negatively with rainfall levels and there were nonlinear effects of population changes. Third, dynamic models for in situ groundwater depths in 11 795 wells in mainly unconfined aquifers, accounting for latitudes, longitudes and altitudes, showed steady depletion. Overall, the results indicated that population pressures on food production and environment need to be tackled via long-term healthcare, agricultural, and groundwater recharge policies in India.

Electrical fatigue behaviour in lead zirconate titanate: an experimental and theoretical study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhattacharyya, Mainak; Arockiarajan, A.

2013-08-01

A systematic investigation on electrical fatigue in lead zirconate titanate (PZT) is carried out for different loading frequencies. Experiments are conducted up to 106 cycles to measure the electrical displacement and longitudinal strain on bulk ceramics in the bipolar mode with large electrical loading conditions. A simplified macroscopic model based on physical mechanisms of domain switching is developed to predict the non-linear behaviour. In this model, the volume fraction of a domain is used as the internal variable by considering the mechanisms of domain nucleation and propagation (domain wall movement). The measured material properties at different fatigue cycles are incorporated into the switching model as damage parameters and the classical strain versus electric field and electric displacement versus electric field curves are simulated. Comparison between the experiments and simulations shows that the proposed model can reproduce the characteristics of non-linear as well as fatigue responses.

Modeling and simulation of different and representative engineering problems using Network Simulation Method

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Mathematical models simulating different and representative engineering problem, atomic dry friction, the moving front problems and elastic and solid mechanics are presented in the form of a set of non-linear, coupled or not coupled differential equations. For different parameters values that influence the solution, the problem is numerically solved by the network method, which provides all the variables of the problems. Although the model is extremely sensitive to the above parameters, no assumptions are considered as regards the linearization of the variables. The design of the models, which are run on standard electrical circuit simulation software, is explained in detail. The network model results are compared with common numerical methods or experimental data, published in the scientific literature, to show the reliability of the model. PMID:29518121

Modeling and simulation of different and representative engineering problems using Network Simulation Method.

PubMed

Sánchez-Pérez, J F; Marín, F; Morales, J L; Cánovas, M; Alhama, F

2018-01-01

Mathematical models simulating different and representative engineering problem, atomic dry friction, the moving front problems and elastic and solid mechanics are presented in the form of a set of non-linear, coupled or not coupled differential equations. For different parameters values that influence the solution, the problem is numerically solved by the network method, which provides all the variables of the problems. Although the model is extremely sensitive to the above parameters, no assumptions are considered as regards the linearization of the variables. The design of the models, which are run on standard electrical circuit simulation software, is explained in detail. The network model results are compared with common numerical methods or experimental data, published in the scientific literature, to show the reliability of the model.

STICK-SLIP-SEPARATION Analysis and Non-Linear Stiffness and Damping Characterization of Friction Contacts Having Variable Normal Load

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, B. D.; Chu, M. L.; Menq, C. H.

1998-03-01

Mechanical systems in which moving components are mutually constrained through contacts often lead to complex contact kinematics involving tangential and normal relative motions. A friction contact model is proposed to characterize this type of contact kinematics that imposes both friction non-linearity and intermittent separation non-linearity on the system. The stick-slip friction phenomenon is analyzed by establishing analytical criteria that predict the transition between stick, slip, and separation of the interface. The established analytical transition criteria are particularly important to the proposed friction contact model for the transition conditions of the contact kinematics are complicated by the effect of normal load variation and possible interface separation. With these transition criteria, the induced friction force on the contact plane and the variable normal load perpendicular to the contact plane, can be predicted for any given cyclic relative motions at the contact interface and hysteresis loops can be produced so as to characterize the equivalent damping and stiffness of the friction contact. These-non-linear damping and stiffness methods along with the harmonic balance method are then used to predict the resonant response of a frictionally constrained two-degree-of-freedom oscillator. The predicted results are compared with those of the time integration method and the damping effect, the resonant frequency shift, and the jump phenomenon are examined.

Spectral variability of sea surface skylight reflectance and its effect on ocean color.

PubMed

Cui, Ting-Wei; Song, Qing-Jun; Tang, Jun-Wu; Zhang, Jie

2013-10-21

In this study, sea surface skylight spectral reflectance ρ(λ) was retrieved by means of the non-linear spectral optimization method and a bio-optical model. The spectral variability of ρ(λ) was found to be mainly influenced by the uniformity of the incident skylight, and a model is proposed to predict the ρ(λ) spectral dependency based on skylight reflectance at 750 nm. It is demonstrated that using the spectrally variable ρ(λ), rather than a constant, yields an improved agreement between the above-water remote sensing reflectance R(rs)(λ) estimates and concurrent profiling ones. The findings of this study highlight the necessity to re-process the relevant historical above-water data and update ocean color retrieval algorithms accordingly.

Regional variability among nonlinear chlorophyll-phosphorus relationships in lakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Filstrup, Christopher T.; Wagner, Tyler; Soranno, Patricia A.; Stanley, Emily H.; Stow, Craig A.; Webster, Katherine E.; Downing, John A.

2014-01-01

The relationship between chlorophyll a (Chl a) and total phosphorus (TP) is a fundamental relationship in lakes that reflects multiple aspects of ecosystem function and is also used in the regulation and management of inland waters. The exact form of this relationship has substantial implications on its meaning and its use. We assembled a spatially extensive data set to examine whether nonlinear models are a better fit for Chl a—TP relationships than traditional log-linear models, whether there were regional differences in the form of the relationships, and, if so, which regional factors were related to these differences. We analyzed a data set from 2105 temperate lakes across 35 ecoregions by fitting and comparing two different nonlinear models and one log-linear model. The two nonlinear models fit the data better than the log-linear model. In addition, the parameters for the best-fitting model varied among regions: the maximum and lower Chl aasymptotes were positively and negatively related to percent regional pasture land use, respectively, and the rate at which chlorophyll increased with TP was negatively related to percent regional wetland cover. Lakes in regions with more pasture fields had higher maximum chlorophyll concentrations at high TP concentrations but lower minimum chlorophyll concentrations at low TP concentrations. Lakes in regions with less wetland cover showed a steeper Chl a—TP relationship than wetland-rich regions. Interpretation of Chl a—TP relationships depends on regional differences, and theory and management based on a monolithic relationship may be inaccurate.

Sorption of metolachlor and atrazine in fly ash amended soils: comparison of optimized isotherm models.

PubMed

Ghosh, Rakesh K; Singh, Neera

2012-01-01

Adsorption of metolachlor and atrazine was studied in the fly ash (Inderprastha and Badarpur)- amended Inceptisol and Alfisol soils using batch method. Results indicated that sorption of both the herbicides in soil+fly ash mixtures was highly nonlinear and sorption decreased with a higher herbicide concentration in the solution. Also, nonlinearity increased with an increase in the level of fly ash amendment from 0-5%. Three two-parameter monolayer isotherms viz. Langmuir, Temkin, Jovanovic and one imperical Freundlich models were used to fit the experimental data. Data analysis and comparison revealed that the Temkin and the Freundlich isotherms were best-suited to explain the sorption results and the observed and the calculated adsorption coefficient values showed less variability. The study suggested that sorption mechanism of metolachlor and atrazine involved the physical association at the sorbate surface and the nonlinearity in the sorption at higher pesticide or fly ash concentration was due to a decrease in the heat of adsorption and higher binding energy.

Tethered satellite system control using electromagnetic forces and reaction wheels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alandi Hallaj, Mohammad Amin; Assadian, Nima

2015-12-01

In this paper a novel non-rotating space tethered configuration is introduced which its relative positions controlled using electromagnetic forces. The attitude dynamics is controlled by three reaction wheels in the body axes. The nonlinear coupled orbital dynamics of a dumbbell tethered satellite formation flight are derived through a constrained Lagrangian approach. These equations are presented in the leader satellite orbital frame. The tether is assumed to be mass-less and straight, and the J2 perturbation is included to the analysis. The forces and the moments of the electromagnetic coils are modeled based on the far-filed model of the magnetic dipoles. A guidance scheme for generating the desired positions as a function of time in Cartesian form is presented. The satellite tethered formation with variable length is controlled utilizing a linear controller. This approach is applied to a specified scenario and it is shown that the nonlinear guidance method and the linear controller can control the nonlinear system of the tethered formation and the results are compared with optimal control approach.

Validation of a RANS transition model using a high-order weighted compact nonlinear scheme

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tu, GuoHua; Deng, XiaoGang; Mao, MeiLiang

2013-04-01

A modified transition model is given based on the shear stress transport (SST) turbulence model and an intermittency transport equation. The energy gradient term in the original model is replaced by flow strain rate to saving computational costs. The model employs local variables only, and then it can be conveniently implemented in modern computational fluid dynamics codes. The fifth-order weighted compact nonlinear scheme and the fourth-order staggered scheme are applied to discrete the governing equations for the purpose of minimizing discretization errors, so as to mitigate the confusion between numerical errors and transition model errors. The high-order package is compared with a second-order TVD method on simulating the transitional flow of a flat plate. Numerical results indicate that the high-order package give better grid convergence property than that of the second-order method. Validation of the transition model is performed for transitional flows ranging from low speed to hypersonic speed.

Nonlinear Dynamic Modeling and Controls Development for Supersonic Propulsion System Research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Connolly, Joseph W.; Kopasakis, George; Paxson, Daniel E.; Stuber, Eric; Woolwine, Kyle

2012-01-01

This paper covers the propulsion system component modeling and controls development of an integrated nonlinear dynamic simulation for an inlet and engine that can be used for an overall vehicle (APSE) model. The focus here is on developing a methodology for the propulsion model integration, which allows for controls design that prevents inlet instabilities and minimizes the thrust oscillation experienced by the vehicle. Limiting thrust oscillations will be critical to avoid exciting vehicle aeroelastic modes. Model development includes both inlet normal shock position control and engine rotor speed control for a potential supersonic commercial transport. A loop shaping control design process is used that has previously been developed for the engine and verified on linear models, while a simpler approach is used for the inlet control design. Verification of the modeling approach is conducted by simulating a two-dimensional bifurcated inlet and a representative J-85 jet engine previously used in a NASA supersonics project. Preliminary results are presented for the current supersonics project concept variable cycle turbofan engine design.

A theory for modeling ground-water flow in heterogeneous media

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cooley, Richard L.

2004-01-01

Construction of a ground-water model for a field area is not a straightforward process. Data are virtually never complete or detailed enough to allow substitution into the model equations and direct computation of the results of interest. Formal model calibration through optimization, statistical, and geostatistical methods is being applied to an increasing extent to deal with this problem and provide for quantitative evaluation and uncertainty analysis of the model. However, these approaches are hampered by two pervasive problems: 1) nonlinearity of the solution of the model equations with respect to some of the model (or hydrogeologic) input variables (termed in this report system characteristics) and 2) detailed and generally unknown spatial variability (heterogeneity) of some of the system characteristics such as log hydraulic conductivity, specific storage, recharge and discharge, and boundary conditions. A theory is developed in this report to address these problems. The theory allows construction and analysis of a ground-water model of flow (and, by extension, transport) in heterogeneous media using a small number of lumped or smoothed system characteristics (termed parameters). The theory fully addresses both nonlinearity and heterogeneity in such a way that the parameters are not assumed to be effective values. The ground-water flow system is assumed to be adequately characterized by a set of spatially and temporally distributed discrete values, ?, of the system characteristics. This set contains both small-scale variability that cannot be described in a model and large-scale variability that can. The spatial and temporal variability in ? are accounted for by imagining ? to be generated by a stochastic process wherein ? is normally distributed, although normality is not essential. Because ? has too large a dimension to be estimated using the data normally available, for modeling purposes ? is replaced by a smoothed or lumped approximation y?. (where y is a spatial and temporal interpolation matrix). Set y?. has the same form as the expected value of ?, y 'line' ? , where 'line' ? is the set of drift parameters of the stochastic process; ?. is a best-fit vector to ?. A model function f(?), such as a computed hydraulic head or flux, is assumed to accurately represent an actual field quantity, but the same function written using y?., f(y?.), contains error from lumping or smoothing of ? using y?.. Thus, the replacement of ? by y?. yields nonzero mean model errors of the form E(f(?)-f(y?.)) throughout the model and covariances between model errors at points throughout the model. These nonzero means and covariances are evaluated through third and fifth-order accuracy, respectively, using Taylor series expansions. They can have a significant effect on construction and interpretation of a model that is calibrated by estimating ?.. Vector ?.. is estimated as 'hat' ? using weighted nonlinear least squares techniques to fit a set of model functions f(y'hat' ?) to a. corresponding set of observations of f(?), Y. These observations are assumed to be corrupted by zero-mean, normally distributed observation errors, although, as for ?, normality is not essential. An analytical approximation of the nonlinear least squares solution is obtained using Taylor series expansions and perturbation techniques that assume model and observation errors to be small. This solution is used to evaluate biases and other results to second-order accuracy in the errors. The correct weight matrix to use in the analysis is shown to be the inverse of the second-moment matrix E(Y-f(y?.))(Y-f(y?.))', but the weight matrix is assumed to be arbitrary in most developments. The best diagonal approximation is the inverse of the matrix of diagonal elements of E(Y-f(y?.))(Y-f(y?.))', and a method of estimating this diagonal matrix when it is unknown is developed using a special objective function to compute 'hat' ?. When considered to be an estimate of f

Development of the Transport Class Model (TCM) Aircraft Simulation From a Sub-Scale Generic Transport Model (GTM) Simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hueschen, Richard M.

2011-01-01

A six degree-of-freedom, flat-earth dynamics, non-linear, and non-proprietary aircraft simulation was developed that is representative of a generic mid-sized twin-jet transport aircraft. The simulation was developed from a non-proprietary, publicly available, subscale twin-jet transport aircraft simulation using scaling relationships and a modified aerodynamic database. The simulation has an extended aerodynamics database with aero data outside the normal transport-operating envelope (large angle-of-attack and sideslip values). The simulation has representative transport aircraft surface actuator models with variable rate-limits and generally fixed position limits. The simulation contains a generic 40,000 lb sea level thrust engine model. The engine model is a first order dynamic model with a variable time constant that changes according to simulation conditions. The simulation provides a means for interfacing a flight control system to use the simulation sensor variables and to command the surface actuators and throttle position of the engine model.

A New Approach of Juvenile Age Estimation using Measurements of the Ilium and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) Models for Better Age Prediction.

PubMed

Corron, Louise; Marchal, François; Condemi, Silvana; Chaumoître, Kathia; Adalian, Pascal

2017-01-01

Juvenile age estimation methods used in forensic anthropology generally lack methodological consistency and/or statistical validity. Considering this, a standard approach using nonparametric Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) models were tested to predict age from iliac biometric variables of male and female juveniles from Marseilles, France, aged 0-12 years. Models using unidimensional (length and width) and bidimensional iliac data (module and surface) were constructed on a training sample of 176 individuals and validated on an independent test sample of 68 individuals. Results show that MARS prediction models using iliac width, module and area give overall better and statistically valid age estimates. These models integrate punctual nonlinearities of the relationship between age and osteometric variables. By constructing valid prediction intervals whose size increases with age, MARS models take into account the normal increase of individual variability. MARS models can qualify as a practical and standardized approach for juvenile age estimation. © 2016 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

Nonlinear parametric model for Granger causality of time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marinazzo, Daniele; Pellicoro, Mario; Stramaglia, Sebastiano

2006-06-01

The notion of Granger causality between two time series examines if the prediction of one series could be improved by incorporating information of the other. In particular, if the prediction error of the first time series is reduced by including measurements from the second time series, then the second time series is said to have a causal influence on the first one. We propose a radial basis function approach to nonlinear Granger causality. The proposed model is not constrained to be additive in variables from the two time series and can approximate any function of these variables, still being suitable to evaluate causality. Usefulness of this measure of causality is shown in two applications. In the first application, a physiological one, we consider time series of heart rate and blood pressure in congestive heart failure patients and patients affected by sepsis: we find that sepsis patients, unlike congestive heart failure patients, show symmetric causal relationships between the two time series. In the second application, we consider the feedback loop in a model of excitatory and inhibitory neurons: we find that in this system causality measures the combined influence of couplings and membrane time constants.

Fuzzy logic based robotic controller

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Attia, F.; Upadhyaya, M.

1994-01-01

Existing Proportional-Integral-Derivative (PID) robotic controllers rely on an inverse kinematic model to convert user-specified cartesian trajectory coordinates to joint variables. These joints experience friction, stiction, and gear backlash effects. Due to lack of proper linearization of these effects, modern control theory based on state space methods cannot provide adequate control for robotic systems. In the presence of loads, the dynamic behavior of robotic systems is complex and nonlinear, especially where mathematical modeling is evaluated for real-time operators. Fuzzy Logic Control is a fast emerging alternative to conventional control systems in situations where it may not be feasible to formulate an analytical model of the complex system. Fuzzy logic techniques track a user-defined trajectory without having the host computer to explicitly solve the nonlinear inverse kinematic equations. The goal is to provide a rule-based approach, which is closer to human reasoning. The approach used expresses end-point error, location of manipulator joints, and proximity to obstacles as fuzzy variables. The resulting decisions are based upon linguistic and non-numerical information. This paper presents a solution to the conventional robot controller which is independent of computationally intensive kinematic equations. Computer simulation results of this approach as obtained from software implementation are also discussed.

An improved switching converter model using discrete and average techniques

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shortt, D. J.; Lee, F. C.

1982-01-01

The nonlinear modeling and analysis of dc-dc converters has been done by averaging and discrete-sampling techniques. The averaging technique is simple, but inaccurate as the modulation frequencies approach the theoretical limit of one-half the switching frequency. The discrete technique is accurate even at high frequencies, but is very complex and cumbersome. An improved model is developed by combining the aforementioned techniques. This new model is easy to implement in circuit and state variable forms and is accurate to the theoretical limit.

Infrasound propagation in tropospheric ducts and acoustic shadow zones.

PubMed

de Groot-Hedlin, Catherine D

2017-10-01

Numerical computations of the Navier-Stokes equations governing acoustic propagation are performed to investigate infrasound propagation in the troposphere and into acoustic shadow zones. An existing nonlinear finite-difference, time-domain (FDTD) solver that constrains input sound speed models to be axisymmetric is expanded to allow for advection and rigid, stair-step topography. The FDTD solver permits realistic computations along a given azimuth. It is applied to several environmental models to examine the effects of nonlinearity, topography, advection, and two-dimensional (2D) variations in wind and sound speeds on the penetration of infrasound into shadow zones. Synthesized waveforms are compared to a recording of a rocket motor fuel elimination event at the Utah Test and Training Range. Results show good agreement in the amplitude, duration, and spectra of synthesized and recorded waveforms for propagation through 2D atmospheric models whether or not topography, advection, or nonlinearity is explicitly included. However, infrasound propagation through a one-dimensional, range-averaged, atmospheric model yields waveforms with lower amplitudes and frequencies, suggesting that small-scale atmospheric variability causes significant scatter within the troposphere, leading to enhanced infrasound penetration into shadow zones. Thus, unresolved fine-scale atmospheric dynamics are not required to explain infrasound propagation into shadow zones.

Lipschitz regularity results for nonlinear strictly elliptic equations and applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ley, Olivier; Nguyen, Vinh Duc

2017-10-01

Most of Lipschitz regularity results for nonlinear strictly elliptic equations are obtained for a suitable growth power of the nonlinearity with respect to the gradient variable (subquadratic for instance). For equations with superquadratic growth power in gradient, one usually uses weak Bernstein-type arguments which require regularity and/or convex-type assumptions on the gradient nonlinearity. In this article, we obtain new Lipschitz regularity results for a large class of nonlinear strictly elliptic equations with possibly arbitrary growth power of the Hamiltonian with respect to the gradient variable using some ideas coming from Ishii-Lions' method. We use these bounds to solve an ergodic problem and to study the regularity and the large time behavior of the solution of the evolution equation.

Nonlinear analysis of heart rate variability within independent frequency components during the sleep-wake cycle.

PubMed

Vigo, Daniel E; Dominguez, Javier; Guinjoan, Salvador M; Scaramal, Mariano; Ruffa, Eduardo; Solernó, Juan; Siri, Leonardo Nicola; Cardinali, Daniel P

2010-04-19

Heart rate variability (HRV) is a complex signal that results from the contribution of different sources of oscillation related to the autonomic nervous system activity. Although linear analysis of HRV has been applied to sleep studies, the nonlinear dynamics of HRV underlying frequency components during sleep is less known. We conducted a study to evaluate nonlinear HRV within independent frequency components in wake status, slow-wave sleep (SWS, stages III or IV of non-rapid eye movement sleep), and rapid-eye-movement sleep (REM). The sample included 10 healthy adults. Polysomnography was performed to detect sleep stages. HRV was studied globally during each phase and then very low frequency (VLF), low frequency (LF) and high frequency (HF) components were separated by means of the wavelet transform algorithm. HRV nonlinear dynamics was estimated with sample entropy (SampEn). A higher SampEn was found when analyzing global variability (Wake: 1.53+/-0.28, SWS: 1.76+/-0.32, REM: 1.45+/-0.19, p=0.005) and VLF variability (Wake: 0.13+/-0.03, SWS: 0.19+/-0.03, REM: 0.14+/-0.03, p<0.001) at SWS. REM was similar to wake status regarding nonlinear HRV. We propose nonlinear HRV is a useful index of the autonomic activity that characterizes the different sleep-wake cycle stages. 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Broadband continuous-variable entanglement source using a chirped poling nonlinear crystal

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhao, J. S.; Sun, L.; Yu, X. Q.

2010-01-15

Aperiodically poled nonlinear crystal can be used as a broadband continuous-variable entanglement source and has strong stability under perturbations. We study the conversion dynamics of the sum-frequency generation and the quantum correlation of the two pump fields in a chirped-structure nonlinear crystal using the quantum stochastic method. The results show that there exists a frequency window for the pumps where two optical fields can perform efficient upconversion. The two pump fields are demonstrated to be entangled in the window and the chirped-structure crystal can be used as a continuous-variable entanglement source with a broad response bandwidth.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dechant, Lawrence J.

Wave packet analysis provides a connection between linear small disturbance theory and subsequent nonlinear turbulent spot flow behavior. The traditional association between linear stability analysis and nonlinear wave form is developed via the method of stationary phase whereby asymptotic (simplified) mean flow solutions are used to estimate dispersion behavior and stationary phase approximation are used to invert the associated Fourier transform. The resulting process typically requires nonlinear algebraic equations inversions that can be best performed numerically, which partially mitigates the value of the approximation as compared to a more complete, e.g. DNS or linear/nonlinear adjoint methods. To obtain a simpler,more » closed-form analytical result, the complete packet solution is modeled via approximate amplitude (linear convected kinematic wave initial value problem) and local sinusoidal (wave equation) expressions. Significantly, the initial value for the kinematic wave transport expression follows from a separable variable coefficient approximation to the linearized pressure fluctuation Poisson expression. The resulting amplitude solution, while approximate in nature, nonetheless, appears to mimic many of the global features, e.g. transitional flow intermittency and pressure fluctuation magnitude behavior. A low wave number wave packet models also recover meaningful auto-correlation and low frequency spectral behaviors.« less

Human systems dynamics: Toward a computational model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eoyang, Glenda H.

2012-09-01

A robust and reliable computational model of complex human systems dynamics could support advancements in theory and practice for social systems at all levels, from intrapersonal experience to global politics and economics. Models of human interactions have evolved from traditional, Newtonian systems assumptions, which served a variety of practical and theoretical needs of the past. Another class of models has been inspired and informed by models and methods from nonlinear dynamics, chaos, and complexity science. None of the existing models, however, is able to represent the open, high dimension, and nonlinear self-organizing dynamics of social systems. An effective model will represent interactions at multiple levels to generate emergent patterns of social and political life of individuals and groups. Existing models and modeling methods are considered and assessed against characteristic pattern-forming processes in observed and experienced phenomena of human systems. A conceptual model, CDE Model, based on the conditions for self-organizing in human systems, is explored as an alternative to existing models and methods. While the new model overcomes the limitations of previous models, it also provides an explanatory base and foundation for prospective analysis to inform real-time meaning making and action taking in response to complex conditions in the real world. An invitation is extended to readers to engage in developing a computational model that incorporates the assumptions, meta-variables, and relationships of this open, high dimension, and nonlinear conceptual model of the complex dynamics of human systems.

Streamflow Forecasting Using Nuero-Fuzzy Inference System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nanduri, U. V.; Swain, P. C.

2005-12-01

The prediction of flow into a reservoir is fundamental in water resources planning and management. The need for timely and accurate streamflow forecasting is widely recognized and emphasized by many in water resources fraternity. Real-time forecasts of natural inflows to reservoirs are of particular interest for operation and scheduling. The physical system of the river basin that takes the rainfall as an input and produces the runoff is highly nonlinear, complicated and very difficult to fully comprehend. The system is influenced by large number of factors and variables. The large spatial extent of the systems forces the uncertainty into the hydrologic information. A variety of methods have been proposed for forecasting reservoir inflows including conceptual (physical) and empirical (statistical) models (WMO 1994), but none of them can be considered as unique superior model (Shamseldin 1997). Owing to difficulties of formulating reasonable non-linear watershed models, recent attempts have resorted to Neural Network (NN) approach for complex hydrologic modeling. In recent years the use of soft computing in the field of hydrological forecasting is gaining ground. The relatively new soft computing technique of Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), developed by Jang (1993) is able to take care of the non-linearity, uncertainty, and vagueness embedded in the system. It is a judicious combination of the Neural Networks and fuzzy systems. It can learn and generalize highly nonlinear and uncertain phenomena due to the embedded neural network (NN). NN is efficient in learning and generalization, and the fuzzy system mimics the cognitive capability of human brain. Hence, ANFIS can learn the complicated processes involved in the basin and correlate the precipitation to the corresponding discharge. In the present study, one step ahead forecasts are made for ten-daily flows, which are mostly required for short term operational planning of multipurpose reservoirs. A Neuro-Fuzzy model is developed to forecast ten-daily flows into the Hirakud reservoir on River Mahanadi in the state of Orissa in India. Correlation analysis is carried out to find out the most influential variables on the ten daily flow at Hirakud. Based on this analysis, four variables, namely, flow during the previous time period, ql1, rainfall during the previous two time periods, rl1 and rl2, and flow during the same period in previous year, qpy, are identified as the most influential variables to forecast the ten daily flow. Performance measures such as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Correlation Coefficient (CORR) and coefficient of efficiency R2 are computed for training and testing phases of the model to evaluate its performance. The results indicate that the ten-daily forecasting model is efficient in predicting the high and medium flows with reasonable accuracy. The forecast of low flows is associated with less efficiency. REFERENCES Jang, J.S.R. (1993). "ANFIS: Adaptive - network- based fuzzy inference system." IEEE Trans. on Systems, Man and Cybernetics, 23 (3), 665-685. Shamseldin, A.Y. (1997). "Application of a neural network technique to rainfall-runoff modeling." Journal of Hydrology, 199, 272-294. World Meteorological Organization (1975). Intercomparison of conceptual models used in operational hydrological forecasting. World Meteorological Organization, Technical Report No.429, Geneva, Switzerland.

Nonlinear Field Equations and Solitons as Particles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maccari, Attilio

2006-05-01

Profound advances have recently interested nonlinear field theories and their exact or approximate solutions. We review the last results and point out some important unresolved questions. It is well known that quantum field theories are based upon Fourier series and the identification of plane waves with free particles. On the contrary, nonlinear field theories admit the existence of coherent solutions (dromions, solitons and so on). Moreover, one can construct lower dimensional chaotic patterns, periodic-chaotic patterns, chaotic soliton and dromion patterns. In a similar way, fractal dromion and lump patterns as well as stochastic fractal excitations can appear in the solution. We discuss in some detail a nonlinear Dirac field and a spontaneous symmetry breaking model that are reduced by means of the asymptotic perturbation method to a system of nonlinear evolution equations integrable via an appropriate change of variables. Their coherent, chaotic and fractal solutions are examined in some detail. Finally, we consider the possible identification of some types of coherent solutions with extended particles along the de Broglie-Bohm theory. However, the last findings suggest an inadequacy of the particle concept that appears only as a particular case of nonlinear field theories excitations.

Seasonal prediction for hydro-meteorological variables in the Korean Peninsula: Links with atmospheric teleconnections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoon, S.

2016-12-01

This study analyzes nonlinear behavior links with atmospheric teleconnections between hydrologic variables and climate indices using statistical models over the Korean Peninsula (KP). The ocean-related major climate factors such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mode in the Tropical Ocean (TO) region were used to analyze the atmospheric teleconnections by principal component analysis (PCA) and a singular spectrum analysis (SSA). The nonlinear lag time correlations between climate indices and hydrological variables are calculated by the Mutual Information (MI) techniques. Results show that teleconnection based nonlinear correlation coefficients (CCs) were higher than linear CCs, ENSO shows a few months of lag time correlation with IOD, which has a direct influence on rainfall and streamflow anomalies in the KP. The precipitation and streamflow in KP shows a significant increasing and decreasing tendency during warm pool (WP) and cold tongue (CT) El Niño decaying years, respectively, while the La Niña year shows slightly above normal conditions. IOD events show significantly decreasing and increasing long-term normal conditions during positive and negative years, respectively. A better understanding of the relationship between climate indices and streamflow can help policy makers prepare for possible options in river discharge pattern changes. Furthermore, these results provide useful information for water managers and end-users to support long-range water resources prediction and water-related management plan.

Flexible and structured survival model for a simultaneous estimation of non-linear and non-proportional effects and complex interactions between continuous variables: Performance of this multidimensional penalized spline approach in net survival trend analysis.

PubMed

Remontet, Laurent; Uhry, Zoé; Bossard, Nadine; Iwaz, Jean; Belot, Aurélien; Danieli, Coraline; Charvat, Hadrien; Roche, Laurent

2018-01-01

Cancer survival trend analyses are essential to describe accurately the way medical practices impact patients' survival according to the year of diagnosis. To this end, survival models should be able to account simultaneously for non-linear and non-proportional effects and for complex interactions between continuous variables. However, in the statistical literature, there is no consensus yet on how to build such models that should be flexible but still provide smooth estimates of survival. In this article, we tackle this challenge by smoothing the complex hypersurface (time since diagnosis, age at diagnosis, year of diagnosis, and mortality hazard) using a multidimensional penalized spline built from the tensor product of the marginal bases of time, age, and year. Considering this penalized survival model as a Poisson model, we assess the performance of this approach in estimating the net survival with a comprehensive simulation study that reflects simple and complex realistic survival trends. The bias was generally small and the root mean squared error was good and often similar to that of the true model that generated the data. This parametric approach offers many advantages and interesting prospects (such as forecasting) that make it an attractive and efficient tool for survival trend analyses.

Nonlinear Principal Components Analysis: Introduction and Application

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Linting, Marielle; Meulman, Jacqueline J.; Groenen, Patrick J. F.; van der Koojj, Anita J.

2007-01-01

The authors provide a didactic treatment of nonlinear (categorical) principal components analysis (PCA). This method is the nonlinear equivalent of standard PCA and reduces the observed variables to a number of uncorrelated principal components. The most important advantages of nonlinear over linear PCA are that it incorporates nominal and ordinal…

Wilderness recreation participation: Projections for the next half century

Treesearch

J. M. Bowker; D. Murphy; H. K. Cordell; D. B. K. English; J. C. Bergstrom; C. M. Starbuck; C. J. Betz; G. T. Green; P. Reed

2007-01-01

This paper explores the influence of demographic and spatial variables on individual participation in wildland area recreation. Data from the National Survey on Recreation and the Environment (NSRE) are combined with GIS-based distance measures to develop nonlinear regression models used to predict both participation and the number of days of participation in...

A DST Model of Multilingualism and the Role of Metalinguistic Awareness

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jessner, Ulrike

2008-01-01

This paper suggests that a dynamic systems theory (DST) provides an adequate conceptual metaphor for discussing multilingual development. Multilingual acquisition is a nonlinear and complex dynamic process depending on a number of interacting factors. Variability plays a crucial role in the multilingual system as it changes over time (Herdina &…

Genetic algorithm optimized rainfall-runoff fuzzy inference system for row crop watersheds with claypan soils

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The fuzzy logic algorithm has the ability to describe knowledge in a descriptive human-like manner in the form of simple rules using linguistic variables, and provides a new way of modeling uncertain or naturally fuzzy hydrological processes like non-linear rainfall-runoff relationships. Fuzzy infe...

A Tightly Coupled Non-Equilibrium Magneto-Hydrodynamic Model for Inductively Coupled RF Plasmas

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-02-29

development a tightly coupled magneto-hydrodynamic model for Inductively Coupled Radio- Frequency (RF) Plasmas. Non Local Thermodynamic Equilibrium (NLTE...for Inductively Coupled Radio-Frequency (RF) Plasmas. Non Local Thermodynamic Equilibrium (NLTE) effects are described based on a hybrid State-to-State... thermodynamic variable. This choice allows one to hide the non-linearity of the gas (total) thermal conductivity κ and can partially alle- 2 viate numerical

Theorems and application of local activity of CNN with five state variables and one port.

PubMed

Xiong, Gang; Dong, Xisong; Xie, Li; Yang, Thomas

2012-01-01

Coupled nonlinear dynamical systems have been widely studied recently. However, the dynamical properties of these systems are difficult to deal with. The local activity of cellular neural network (CNN) has provided a powerful tool for studying the emergence of complex patterns in a homogeneous lattice, which is composed of coupled cells. In this paper, the analytical criteria for the local activity in reaction-diffusion CNN with five state variables and one port are presented, which consists of four theorems, including a serial of inequalities involving CNN parameters. These theorems can be used for calculating the bifurcation diagram to determine or analyze the emergence of complex dynamic patterns, such as chaos. As a case study, a reaction-diffusion CNN of hepatitis B Virus (HBV) mutation-selection model is analyzed and simulated, the bifurcation diagram is calculated. Using the diagram, numerical simulations of this CNN model provide reasonable explanations of complex mutant phenomena during therapy. Therefore, it is demonstrated that the local activity of CNN provides a practical tool for the complex dynamics study of some coupled nonlinear systems.

Apparent mass matrix of standing subjects exposed to multi-axial whole-body vibration.

PubMed

Tarabini, Marco; Solbiati, Stefano; Saggin, Bortolino; Scaccabarozzi, Diego

2016-08-01

This paper describes the experimental characterisation of the apparent mass matrix of eight male subjects in standing position and the identification of nonlinearities under both mono-axial and dual-axis whole-body vibration. The nonlinear behaviour of the response was studied using the conditioned response techniques considering models of increasing complexity. Results showed that the cross-axis terms are comparable to the diagonal terms. The contribution of the nonlinear effects are minor and can be endorsed to the change of modal parameters during the tests. The nonlinearity generated by the vibration magnitude is more evident in the subject response, since magnitude-dependent effects in the population are overlaid by the scatter in the subjects' biometric data. The biodynamic response is influenced by the addition of a secondary vibration axis and, in case of dual-axis vibrations, the overall magnitude has a marginal contribution. Practitioner Summary: We have measured both the diagonal and cross-axis elements of the apparent mass matrix. The effect of nonlinearities and the simultaneous presence of vibration along two axes are smaller than the inter-subject variability.

Multi-criteria analysis for PM10 planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pisoni, Enrico; Carnevale, Claudio; Volta, Marialuisa

To implement sound air quality policies, Regulatory Agencies require tools to evaluate outcomes and costs associated to different emission reduction strategies. These tools are even more useful when considering atmospheric PM10 concentrations due to the complex nonlinear processes that affect production and accumulation of the secondary fraction of this pollutant. The approaches presented in the literature (Integrated Assessment Modeling) are mainly cost-benefit and cost-effective analysis. In this work, the formulation of a multi-objective problem to control particulate matter is proposed. The methodology defines: (a) the control objectives (the air quality indicator and the emission reduction cost functions); (b) the decision variables (precursor emission reductions); (c) the problem constraints (maximum feasible technology reductions). The cause-effect relations between air quality indicators and decision variables are identified tuning nonlinear source-receptor models. The multi-objective problem solution provides to the decision maker a set of not-dominated scenarios representing the efficient trade-off between the air quality benefit and the internal costs (emission reduction technology costs). The methodology has been implemented for Northern Italy, often affected by high long-term exposure to PM10. The source-receptor models used in the multi-objective analysis are identified processing long-term simulations of GAMES multiphase modeling system, performed in the framework of CAFE-Citydelta project.