Desert grassland responses to climate and soil moisture suggest divergent vulnerabilities across the southwestern United States.

PubMed

Gremer, Jennifer R; Bradford, John B; Munson, Seth M; Duniway, Michael C

2015-11-01

Climate change predictions include warming and drying trends, which are expected to be particularly pronounced in the southwestern United States. In this region, grassland dynamics are tightly linked to available moisture, yet it has proven difficult to resolve what aspects of climate drive vegetation change. In part, this is because it is unclear how heterogeneity in soils affects plant responses to climate. Here, we combine climate and soil properties with a mechanistic soil water model to explain temporal fluctuations in perennial grass cover, quantify where and the degree to which incorporating soil water dynamics enhances our ability to understand temporal patterns, and explore the potential consequences of climate change by assessing future trajectories of important climate and soil water variables. Our analyses focused on long-term (20-56 years) perennial grass dynamics across the Colorado Plateau, Sonoran, and Chihuahuan Desert regions. Our results suggest that climate variability has negative effects on grass cover, and that precipitation subsidies that extend growing seasons are beneficial. Soil water metrics, including the number of dry days and availability of water from deeper (>30 cm) soil layers, explained additional grass cover variability. While individual climate variables were ranked as more important in explaining grass cover, collectively soil water accounted for 40-60% of the total explained variance. Soil water conditions were more useful for understanding the responses of C3 than C4 grass species. Projections of water balance variables under climate change indicate that conditions that currently support perennial grasses will be less common in the future, and these altered conditions will be more pronounced in the Chihuahuan Desert and Colorado Plateau. We conclude that incorporating multiple aspects of climate and accounting for soil variability can improve our ability to understand patterns, identify areas of vulnerability, and predict the future of desert grasslands. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Bibliotherapy: Medicine for the Soul?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stevens, Michael J.; Pfost, Karen S.

1982-01-01

Reviews research on bibliotherapy in an attempt to find scientific justification for its use. An overview of the experimental research conveys a generally unfavorable picture of its effectiveness. Guidelines for future research suggest the experimental manipulation of specific variables of interest. (Author/JAC)

An approach to evaluate the intra-urban thermal variability in summer using an urban indicator.

PubMed

Massetti, Luciano; Petralli, Martina; Brandani, Giada; Orlandini, Simone

2014-09-01

Urban planners and managers need tools to evaluate the performance of the present state and future development of cities in terms of comfort and quality of life. In this paper, an approach to analyse the intra-urban summer thermal variability, using an urban planning indicator, is presented. The proportion of buildings and concrete surfaces in a specific buffer area are calculated. Besides, the relationship between urban and temperature indicators is investigated and used to produce thermal maps of the city. This approach is applied to the analysis of intra-urban variability in Florence (Italy), of two thermal indices (heat index and cooling degree days) used to evaluate impacts on thermal comfort and energy consumption for indoor cooling. Our results suggest that urban planning indicators can describe intra-urban thermal variability in a way that can easily be used by urban planners for evaluating the effects of future urbanization scenarios on human health. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predisposition for Empathy, Intercultural Sensitivity, and Intentions for Using Motivational Interviewing in First Year Pharmacy Students

PubMed Central

Kavookjian, Jan; Hutchison, Amber

2017-01-01

Objective. To assess first-year pharmacy (P1) students’ predispositions (eg, perceptions for empathy, intercultural sensitivity, and motivational interviewing (MI) as a patient-centered communication skillset) and identify potential curricula content/communication skills training needs. Methods. A cross-sectional survey was used to collect students’ self-reported perceptions for empathy, intercultural sensitivity, counseling contexts, and projected future MI use. Relationships between variables were explored and logistic regression was used to evaluate intention for using MI in future patient encounters. Results. There were 134 students who participated. Higher predisposition for empathy and for intercultural sensitivity were significantly correlated. Significant predictors for applying MI in future patient encounters were sex, confidence with counseling skills, and current use of MI. Conclusion. Results suggest the need to incorporate innovative training strategies in communication skills curricula. Potential areas include empathy, intercultural sensitivity and significant predictor variables for future MI use. Further investigation in other schools is needed. PMID:29200452

Predisposition for Empathy, Intercultural Sensitivity, and Intentions for Using Motivational Interviewing in First Year Pharmacy Students.

PubMed

Ekong, Gladys; Kavookjian, Jan; Hutchison, Amber

2017-10-01

Objective. To assess first-year pharmacy (P1) students' predispositions (eg, perceptions for empathy, intercultural sensitivity, and motivational interviewing (MI) as a patient-centered communication skillset) and identify potential curricula content/communication skills training needs. Methods. A cross-sectional survey was used to collect students' self-reported perceptions for empathy, intercultural sensitivity, counseling contexts, and projected future MI use. Relationships between variables were explored and logistic regression was used to evaluate intention for using MI in future patient encounters. Results. There were 134 students who participated. Higher predisposition for empathy and for intercultural sensitivity were significantly correlated. Significant predictors for applying MI in future patient encounters were sex, confidence with counseling skills, and current use of MI. Conclusion. Results suggest the need to incorporate innovative training strategies in communication skills curricula. Potential areas include empathy, intercultural sensitivity and significant predictor variables for future MI use. Further investigation in other schools is needed.

General Catalogue of Variable Stars: Current Status and New Name-Lists

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samus, N. N.; Kazarovets, E. V.; Kireeva, N. N.; Pastukhova, E. N.; Durlevich, O. V.

2010-12-01

A short history of variable-star catalogs is presented. After the second World War, the International Astronomical Union asked astronomers of the Soviet Union to become responsible for variable-star catalogs. Currently, the catalog is kept electronically and is a joint project of the Institute of Astronomy (Russian Academy of Sciences) and Sternberg Astronomical Institute (Moscow University). We review recent trends in the field of variable-star catalogs, discuss problems and new prospects related to modern large-scale automatic photometric sky surveys, outline the subject of discussions on the future of the variable-star catalogs in the profile commissions of the IAU, and call for suggestions from the astronomical community.

Remote-sensing based approach to forecast habitat quality under climate change scenarios.

PubMed

Requena-Mullor, Juan M; López, Enrique; Castro, Antonio J; Alcaraz-Segura, Domingo; Castro, Hermelindo; Reyes, Andrés; Cabello, Javier

2017-01-01

As climate change is expected to have a significant impact on species distributions, there is an urgent challenge to provide reliable information to guide conservation biodiversity policies. In addressing this challenge, we propose a remote sensing-based approach to forecast the future habitat quality for European badger, a species not abundant and at risk of local extinction in the arid environments of southeastern Spain, by incorporating environmental variables related with the ecosystem functioning and correlated with climate and land use. Using ensemble prediction methods, we designed global spatial distribution models for the distribution range of badger using presence-only data and climate variables. Then, we constructed regional models for an arid region in the southeast Spain using EVI (Enhanced Vegetation Index) derived variables and weighting the pseudo-absences with the global model projections applied to this region. Finally, we forecast the badger potential spatial distribution in the time period 2071-2099 based on IPCC scenarios incorporating the uncertainty derived from the predicted values of EVI-derived variables. By including remotely sensed descriptors of the temporal dynamics and spatial patterns of ecosystem functioning into spatial distribution models, results suggest that future forecast is less favorable for European badgers than not including them. In addition, change in spatial pattern of habitat suitability may become higher than when forecasts are based just on climate variables. Since the validity of future forecast only based on climate variables is currently questioned, conservation policies supported by such information could have a biased vision and overestimate or underestimate the potential changes in species distribution derived from climate change. The incorporation of ecosystem functional attributes derived from remote sensing in the modeling of future forecast may contribute to the improvement of the detection of ecological responses under climate change scenarios.

Enhanced recharge rates and altered recharge sensitivity to climate variability through subsurface heterogeneity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartmann, Andreas; Gleeson, Tom; Wada, Yoshihide; Wagener, Thorsten

2017-04-01

Karst aquifers in Europe are an important source of fresh water contributing up to half of the total drinking water supply in some countries. Karstic groundwater recharge is one of the most important components of the water balance of karst systems as it feeds the karst aquifers. Presently available large-scale hydrological models do not consider karst heterogeneity adequately. Projections of current and potential future groundwater recharge of Europe's karst aquifers are therefore unclear. In this study we compare simulations of present (1991-2010) and future (2080-2099) recharge using two different models to simulate groundwater recharge processes. One model includes karst processes (subsurface heterogeneity, lateral flow and concentrated recharge), while the other is based on the conceptual understanding of common hydrological systems (homogeneous subsurface, saturation excess overland flow). Both models are driven by the bias-corrected 5 GCMs of the ISI-MIP project (RCP8.5). To further assess sensitivity of groundwater recharge to climate variability, we calculate the elasticity of recharge rates to annual precipitation, temperature and average intensity of rainfall events, which is the median change of recharge that corresponds to the median change of these climate variables within the present and future time period, respectively. Our model comparison shows that karst regions over Europe have enhanced recharge rates with greater inter-annual variability compared to those with more homogenous subsurface properties. Furthermore, the heterogeneous representation shows stronger elasticity concerning climate variability than the homogeneous subsurface representation. This difference tends to increase towards the future. Our results suggest that water management in regions with heterogeneous subsurface can expect a higher water availability than estimated by most of the current large-scale simulations, while measures should be taken to prepare for increasingly variable groundwater recharge rates.

Remote-sensing based approach to forecast habitat quality under climate change scenarios

PubMed Central

Requena-Mullor, Juan M.; López, Enrique; Castro, Antonio J.; Alcaraz-Segura, Domingo; Castro, Hermelindo; Reyes, Andrés; Cabello, Javier

2017-01-01

As climate change is expected to have a significant impact on species distributions, there is an urgent challenge to provide reliable information to guide conservation biodiversity policies. In addressing this challenge, we propose a remote sensing-based approach to forecast the future habitat quality for European badger, a species not abundant and at risk of local extinction in the arid environments of southeastern Spain, by incorporating environmental variables related with the ecosystem functioning and correlated with climate and land use. Using ensemble prediction methods, we designed global spatial distribution models for the distribution range of badger using presence-only data and climate variables. Then, we constructed regional models for an arid region in the southeast Spain using EVI (Enhanced Vegetation Index) derived variables and weighting the pseudo-absences with the global model projections applied to this region. Finally, we forecast the badger potential spatial distribution in the time period 2071–2099 based on IPCC scenarios incorporating the uncertainty derived from the predicted values of EVI-derived variables. By including remotely sensed descriptors of the temporal dynamics and spatial patterns of ecosystem functioning into spatial distribution models, results suggest that future forecast is less favorable for European badgers than not including them. In addition, change in spatial pattern of habitat suitability may become higher than when forecasts are based just on climate variables. Since the validity of future forecast only based on climate variables is currently questioned, conservation policies supported by such information could have a biased vision and overestimate or underestimate the potential changes in species distribution derived from climate change. The incorporation of ecosystem functional attributes derived from remote sensing in the modeling of future forecast may contribute to the improvement of the detection of ecological responses under climate change scenarios. PMID:28257501

Greening of the Sahara suppressed ENSO activity during the mid-Holocene

PubMed Central

Pausata, Francesco S. R.; Zhang, Qiong; Muschitiello, Francesco; Lu, Zhengyao; Chafik, Léon; Niedermeyer, Eva M.; Stager, J. Curt; Cobb, Kim M.; Liu, Zhengyu

2017-01-01

The evolution of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during the Holocene remains uncertain. In particular, a host of new paleoclimate records suggest that ENSO internal variability or other external forcings may have dwarfed the fairly modest ENSO response to precessional insolation changes simulated in climate models. Here, using fully coupled ocean-atmosphere model simulations, we show that accounting for a vegetated and less dusty Sahara during the mid-Holocene relative to preindustrial climate can reduce ENSO variability by 25%, more than twice the decrease obtained using orbital forcing alone. We identify changes in tropical Atlantic mean state and variability caused by the momentous strengthening of the West Africa Monsoon (WAM) as critical factors in amplifying ENSO’s response to insolation forcing through changes in the Walker circulation. Our results thus suggest that potential changes in the WAM due to anthropogenic warming may influence ENSO variability in the future as well. PMID:28685758

Greening of the Sahara suppressed ENSO activity during the mid-Holocene.

PubMed

Pausata, Francesco S R; Zhang, Qiong; Muschitiello, Francesco; Lu, Zhengyao; Chafik, Léon; Niedermeyer, Eva M; Stager, J Curt; Cobb, Kim M; Liu, Zhengyu

2017-07-07

The evolution of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during the Holocene remains uncertain. In particular, a host of new paleoclimate records suggest that ENSO internal variability or other external forcings may have dwarfed the fairly modest ENSO response to precessional insolation changes simulated in climate models. Here, using fully coupled ocean-atmosphere model simulations, we show that accounting for a vegetated and less dusty Sahara during the mid-Holocene relative to preindustrial climate can reduce ENSO variability by 25%, more than twice the decrease obtained using orbital forcing alone. We identify changes in tropical Atlantic mean state and variability caused by the momentous strengthening of the West Africa Monsoon (WAM) as critical factors in amplifying ENSO's response to insolation forcing through changes in the Walker circulation. Our results thus suggest that potential changes in the WAM due to anthropogenic warming may influence ENSO variability in the future as well.

Accounting for downscaling and model uncertainty in fine-resolution seasonal climate projections over the Columbia River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmadalipour, Ali; Moradkhani, Hamid; Rana, Arun

2018-01-01

Climate change is expected to have severe impacts on natural systems as well as various socio-economic aspects of human life. This has urged scientific communities to improve the understanding of future climate and reduce the uncertainties associated with projections. In the present study, ten statistically downscaled CMIP5 GCMs at 1/16th deg. spatial resolution from two different downscaling procedures are utilized over the Columbia River Basin (CRB) to assess the changes in climate variables and characterize the associated uncertainties. Three climate variables, i.e. precipitation, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature, are studied for the historical period of 1970-2000 as well as future period of 2010-2099, simulated with representative concentration pathways of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) is employed to reduce the model uncertainty and develop a probabilistic projection for each variable in each scenario. Historical comparison of long-term attributes of GCMs and observation suggests a more accurate representation for BMA than individual models. Furthermore, BMA projections are used to investigate future seasonal to annual changes of climate variables. Projections indicate significant increase in annual precipitation and temperature, with varied degree of change across different sub-basins of CRB. We then characterized uncertainty of future projections for each season over CRB. Results reveal that model uncertainty is the main source of uncertainty, among others. However, downscaling uncertainty considerably contributes to the total uncertainty of future projections, especially in summer. On the contrary, downscaling uncertainty appears to be higher than scenario uncertainty for precipitation.

Complex Socio-Ecological Dynamics driven by extreme events in the Amazon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pinho, P. F.

2015-12-01

Several years with extreme floods or droughts in the past decade have caused human suffering in remote communities of the Brazilian Amazon. Despite documented local knowledge and practices for coping with the high seasonal variability characteristic of the region's hydrology (e.g. 10m change in river levels between dry and flood seasons), and despite 'civil Defense' interventions by various levels of government, the more extreme years seem to have exceeded the coping capacity of the community. In this paper, we explore whether there is a real increase in variability, whether the community perceives that recent extreme events are outside the experience which shapes their responses to 'normal' levels of variability, and what science-based policy could contribute to greater local resilience. Hydrological analyses suggest that variability is indeed increasing, in line with expectations from future climate change. However, current measures of hydrological regimes do not predict years with social hardship very well. Interviewees in two regions are able to express their strategies for dealing with 'normal' variability very well, but also identify ways in which abnormal years exceed their ability to cope. Current Civil Defense arrangements struggle to deliver emergency assistance in a sufficiently timely and locally appropriate fashion. Combining these insights in the context of social-ecological change, we suggest how better integration of science, policy and local knowledge could improve resilience to future trends, and identify some contributions science could make into such an arrangement.

Fluctuating seawater pH/pCO2 regimes are more energetically expensive than static pH/pCO2 levels in the mussel Mytilus edulis.

PubMed

Mangan, Stephanie; Urbina, Mauricio A; Findlay, Helen S; Wilson, Rod W; Lewis, Ceri

2017-10-25

Ocean acidification (OA) studies typically use stable open-ocean pH or CO 2 values. However, species living within dynamic coastal environments can naturally experience wide fluctuations in abiotic factors, suggesting their responses to stable pH conditions may not be reflective of either present or near-future conditions. Here we investigate the physiological responses of the mussel Mytilus edulis to variable seawater pH conditions over short- (6 h) and medium-term (2 weeks) exposures under both current and near-future OA scenarios. Mussel haemolymph pH closely mirrored that of seawater pH over short-term changes of 1 pH unit with acidosis or recovery accordingly, highlighting a limited capacity for acid-base regulation. After 2 weeks, mussels under variable pH conditions had significantly higher metabolic rates, antioxidant enzyme activities and lipid peroxidation than those exposed to static pH under both current and near-future OA scenarios. Static near-future pH conditions induced significant acid-base disturbances and lipid peroxidation compared with the static present-day conditions but did not affect the metabolic rate. These results clearly demonstrate that living in naturally variable environments is energetically more expensive than living in static seawater conditions, which has consequences for how we extrapolate future OA responses in coastal species. © 2017 The Authors.

The U.S. Geological Survey Monthly Water Balance Model Futures Portal

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bock, Andy

2017-03-16

Simulations of future climate suggest profiles of temperature and precipitation may differ significantly from those in the past. These changes in climate will likely lead to changes in the hydrologic cycle. As such, natural resource managers are in need of tools that can provide estimates of key components of the hydrologic cycle, uncertainty associated with the estimates, and limitations associated with the climate forcing data used to estimate these components. To help address this need, the U.S. Geological Survey Monthly Water Balance Model Futures Portal (https://my.usgs.gov/mows/) provides a user friendly interface to deliver hydrologic and meteorological variables for monthly historic and potential future climatic conditions across the continental United States.

Correlates of engaging in survival sex among homeless youth and young adults.

PubMed

Walls, N Eugene; Bell, Stephanie

2011-09-01

Using a sample of 1,625 homeless youth and young adults aged 10 to 25 from 28 different states in the United States, this study examines the correlates of having engaged in survival sex. Findings suggest that differences exist based on demographic variables (gender, age, race, and sexual orientation), lifetime drug use (inhalants, Valium™, crack cocaine, alcohol, Coricidin™, and morphine), recent drug use (alcohol, ecstasy, heroin, and methamphetamine), mental health variables (suicide attempts, familial history of substance use, and having been in substance abuse treatment), and health variables (sharing needles and having been tested for HIV). In addition to replicating previous findings, this study's findings suggest that African American youth; gay, lesbian, or bisexual youth; and youth who had been tested for HIV were significantly more likely to have engaged in survival sex than White, heterosexual youth, and youth who had not been tested for HIV, respectively. Implications for interventions with youth and suggestions for future research are discussed.

Identifying bird and reptile vulnerabilities to climate change in the southwestern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hatten, James R.; Giermakowski, J. Tomasz; Holmes, Jennifer A.; Nowak, Erika M.; Johnson, Matthew J.; Ironside, Kirsten E.; van Riper, Charles; Peters, Michael; Truettner, Charles; Cole, Kenneth L.

2016-07-06

Current and future breeding ranges of 15 bird and 16 reptile species were modeled in the Southwestern United States. Rather than taking a broad-scale, vulnerability-assessment approach, we created a species distribution model (SDM) for each focal species incorporating climatic, landscape, and plant variables. Baseline climate (1940–2009) was characterized with Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) data and future climate with global-circulation-model data under an A1B emission scenario. Climatic variables included monthly and seasonal temperature and precipitation; landscape variables included terrain ruggedness, soil type, and insolation; and plant variables included trees and shrubs commonly associated with a focal species. Not all species-distribution models contained a plant, but if they did, we included a built-in annual migration rate for more accurate plant-range projections in 2039 or 2099. We conducted a group meta-analysis to (1) determine how influential each variable class was when averaged across all species distribution models (birds or reptiles), and (2) identify the correlation among contemporary (2009) habitat fragmentation and biological attributes and future range projections (2039 or 2099). Projected changes in bird and reptile ranges varied widely among species, with one-third of the ranges predicted to expand and two-thirds predicted to contract. A group meta-analysis indicated that climatic variables were the most influential variable class when averaged across all models for both groups, followed by landscape and plant variables (birds), or plant and landscape variables (reptiles), respectively. The second part of the meta-analysis indicated that numerous contemporary habitat-fragmentation (for example, patch isolation) and biological-attribute (for example, clutch size, longevity) variables were significantly correlated with the magnitude of projected range changes for birds and reptiles. Patch isolation was a significant trans-specific driver of projected bird and reptile ranges, suggesting that strategic actions should focus on restoration and enhancement of habitat at local and regional scales to promote landscape connectivity and conservation of core areas.

Taking the pulse of mountains: Ecosystem responses to climatic variability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fagre, Daniel B.; Peterson, David L.; Hessl, Amy E.

2003-01-01

An integrated program of ecosystem modeling and field studies in the mountains of the Pacific Northwest (U.S.A.) has quantified many of the ecological processes affected by climatic variability. Paleoecological and contemporary ecological data in forest ecosystems provided model parameterization and validation at broad spatial and temporal scales for tree growth, tree regeneration and treeline movement. For subalpine tree species, winter precipitation has a strong negative correlation with growth; this relationship is stronger at higher elevations and west-side sites (which have more precipitation). Temperature affects tree growth at some locations with respect to length of growing season (spring) and severity of drought at drier sites (summer). Furthermore, variable but predictable climate-growth relationships across elevation gradients suggest that tree species respond differently to climate at different locations, making a uniform response of these species to future climatic change unlikely. Multi-decadal variability in climate also affects ecosystem processes. Mountain hemlock growth at high-elevation sites is negatively correlated with winter snow depth and positively correlated with the winter Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index. At low elevations, the reverse is true. Glacier mass balance and fire severity are also linked to PDO. Rapid establishment of trees in subalpine ecosystems during this century is increasing forest cover and reducing meadow cover at many subalpine locations in the western U.S.A. and precipitation (snow depth) is a critical variable regulating conifer expansion. Lastly, modeling potential future ecosystem conditions suggests that increased climatic variability will result in increasing forest fire size and frequency, and reduced net primary productivity in drier, east-side forest ecosystems. As additional empirical data and modeling output become available, we will improve our ability to predict the effects of climatic change across a broad range of climates and mountain ecosystems in the northwestern U.S.A.

Screen Layout Design: Research into the Overall Appearance of the Screen.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Grabinger, R. Scott

1989-01-01

Examines the current state of research into the visual effects of screen designs used in computer-assisted instruction and suggests areas for future efforts. Topics discussed include technical elements and comprehensibility elements in layout design; single element and multiple element research methodologies; dependent variables; and learning…

Soil modulates the effect of precipitation seasonality on bioenergy crop production

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Background/Questions/Methods Future climate change scenarios remain uncertain with respect to precipitation amounts and variability. In the U.S. Great Plains, spring precipitation is expected to decrease in the lower Great Plains but increase 20%–40% in the upper Mississippi Valley, suggesting pot...

Genetic and environmental limitations on crop responses to elevated [CO2

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

While the future crop growing environment is likely to be warmer and with more variable water availability, the stimulation of C3 photosynthesis by elevated CO2 concentration provides a potential benefit of global climate change. However, experimental field studies suggest that C3 crops fall short o...

Early emergence of anthropogenically forced heat waves in the western United States and Great Lakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lopez, Hosmay; West, Robert; Dong, Shenfu; Goni, Gustavo; Kirtman, Ben; Lee, Sang-Ki; Atlas, Robert

2018-05-01

Climate projections for the twenty-first century suggest an increase in the occurrence of heat waves. However, the time at which externally forced signals of anthropogenic climate change (ACC) emerge against background natural variability (time of emergence (ToE)) has been challenging to quantify, which makes future heat-wave projections uncertain. Here we combine observations and model simulations under present and future forcing to assess how internal variability and ACC modulate US heat waves. We show that ACC dominates heat-wave occurrence over the western United States and Great Lakes regions, with ToE that occurred as early as the 2020s and 2030s, respectively. In contrast, internal variability governs heat waves in the northern and southern Great Plains, where ToE occurs in the 2050s and 2070s; this later ToE is believed to be a result of a projected increase in circulation variability, namely the Great Plain low-level jet. Thus, greater mitigation and adaptation efforts are needed in the Great Lakes and western United States regions.

Climate change enhances interannual variability of the Nile river flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siam, Mohamed S.; Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.

2017-04-01

The human population living in the Nile basin countries is projected to double by 2050, approaching one billion. The increase in water demand associated with this burgeoning population will put significant stress on the available water resources. Potential changes in the flow of the Nile River as a result of climate change may further strain this critical situation. Here, we present empirical evidence from observations and consistent projections from climate model simulations suggesting that the standard deviation describing interannual variability of total Nile flow could increase by 50% (+/-35%) (multi-model ensemble mean +/- 1 standard deviation) in the twenty-first century compared to the twentieth century. We attribute the relatively large change in interannual variability of the Nile flow to projected increases in future occurrences of El Niño and La Niña events and to observed teleconnection between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Nile River flow. Adequacy of current water storage capacity and plans for additional storage capacity in the basin will need to be re-evaluated given the projected enhancement of interannual variability in the future flow of the Nile river.

1H NMR investigation of thermally triggered insulin release from poly(N-isopropylacrylamide) microgels.

PubMed

Nolan, Christine M; Gelbaum, Leslie T; Lyon, L Andrew

2006-10-01

We describe investigations of insulin release from thermoresponsive microgels using variable temperature (1)H NMR. Microgel particles composed of poly(N-isopropylacrylamide) were loaded with the peptide via a swelling technique, and this method was compared to simple equilibrium partitioning. Variable temperature (1)H NMR studies suggest that the swelling loading method results in enhanced entrapment of the peptide versus equilibrium partitioning. A centrifugation-loading assay supports this finding. Pseudo-temperature jump (1)H NMR measurements suggest that the insulin release rate is partially decoupled from microgel collapse. These types of direct release investigations could prove to be useful methods in the future design of controlled macromolecule drug delivery devices.

Analyzing the responses of species assemblages to climate change across the Great Basin, USA.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henareh Khalyani, A.; Falkowski, M. J.; Crookston, N.; Yousef, F.

2016-12-01

The potential impacts of climate change on the future distribution of tree species in not well understood. Climate driven changes in tree species distribution could cause significant changes in realized species niches, potentially resulting in the loss of ecotonal species as well as the formation on novel assemblages of overlapping tree species. In an effort to gain a better understating of how the geographic distribution of tree species may respond to climate change, we model the potential future distribution of 50 different tree species across 70 million ha in the Great Basin, USA. This is achieved by leveraging a species realized niche model based on non-parametric analysis of species occurrences across climatic, topographic, and edaphic variables. Spatially explicit, high spatial resolution (30 m) climate variables (e.g., precipitation, and minimum, maximum, and mean temperature) and associated climate indices were generated on an annual basis between 1981-2010 by integrating climate station data with digital elevation data (Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission (SRTM) data) in a thin plate spline interpolation algorithm (ANUSPLIN). Bioclimate models of species niches in in the cotemporary period and three following 30 year periods were then generated by integrating the climate variables, soil data, and CMIP 5 general circulation model projections. Our results suggest that local scale contemporary variations in species realized niches across space are influenced by edaphic and topographic variables as well as climatic variables. The local variability in soil properties and topographic variability across space also affect the species responses to climate change through time and potential formation of species assemblages in future. The results presented here in will aid in the development of adaptive forest management techniques aimed at mitigating negative impacts of climate change on forest composition, structure, and function.

A top-down approach to projecting market impacts of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lemoine, Derek; Kapnick, Sarah

2016-01-01

To evaluate policies to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions, economic models require estimates of how future climate change will affect well-being. So far, nearly all estimates of the economic impacts of future warming have been developed by combining estimates of impacts in individual sectors of the economy. Recent work has used variation in warming over time and space to produce top-down estimates of how past climate and weather shocks have affected economic output. Here we propose a statistical framework for converting these top-down estimates of past economic costs of regional warming into projections of the economic cost of future global warming. Combining the latest physical climate models, socioeconomic projections, and economic estimates of past impacts, we find that future warming could raise the expected rate of economic growth in richer countries, reduce the expected rate of economic growth in poorer countries, and increase the variability of growth by increasing the climate's variability. This study suggests we should rethink the focus on global impacts and the use of deterministic frameworks for modelling impacts and policy.

Suburban watershed nitrogen retention: Estimating the effectiveness of stormwater management structures

USGS Publications Warehouse

Koch, Benjamin J.; Febria, Catherine M.; Cooke, Roger M.; Hosen, Jacob D.; Baker, Matthew E.; Colson, Abigail R.; Filoso, Solange; Hayhoe, Katharine; Loperfido, J. V.; Stoner, Anne M.K.; Palmer, Margaret A.

2015-01-01

Expert knowledge indicated wide uncertainty in BMP performance, with N removal efficiencies ranging from <0% (BMP acting as a source of N during a rain event) to >40%. Experts believed that the amount of rain was the primary identifiable source of variability in BMP efficiency, which is relevant given climate projections of more frequent heavy rain events in the mid-Atlantic. To assess the extent to which those projected changes might alter N export from suburban BMPs and watersheds, we combined downscaled estimates of rainfall with distributions of N loads for different-sized rain events derived from our elicitation. The model predicted higher and more variable N loads under a projected future climate regime, suggesting that current BMP regulations for reducing nutrients may be inadequate in the future.

Response of ENSO amplitude to global warming in CESM large ensemble: uncertainty due to internal variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Xiao-Tong; Hui, Chang; Yeh, Sang-Wook

2018-06-01

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of variability in the coupled ocean-atmospheric system. Future projections of ENSO change under global warming are highly uncertain among models. In this study, the effect of internal variability on ENSO amplitude change in future climate projections is investigated based on a 40-member ensemble from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) project. A large uncertainty is identified among ensemble members due to internal variability. The inter-member diversity is associated with a zonal dipole pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) change in the mean along the equator, which is similar to the second empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode of tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV) in the unforced control simulation. The uncertainty in CESM-LE is comparable in magnitude to that among models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), suggesting the contribution of internal variability to the intermodel uncertainty in ENSO amplitude change. However, the causations between changes in ENSO amplitude and the mean state are distinct between CESM-LE and CMIP5 ensemble. The CESM-LE results indicate that a large ensemble of 15 members is needed to separate the relative contributions to ENSO amplitude change over the twenty-first century between forced response and internal variability.

Impacts of Model Bias on the Climate Change Signal and Effects of Weighted Ensembles of Regional Climate Model Simulations: A Case Study over Southern Québec, Canada

DOE PAGES

Eum, Hyung-Il; Gachon, Philippe; Laprise, René

2016-01-01

This study examined the impact of model biases on climate change signals for daily precipitation and for minimum and maximum temperatures. Through the use of multiple climate scenarios from 12 regional climate model simulations, the ensemble mean, and three synthetic simulations generated by a weighting procedure, we investigated intermodel seasonal climate change signals between current and future periods, for both median and extreme precipitation/temperature values. A significant dependence of seasonal climate change signals on the model biases over southern Québec in Canada was detected for temperatures, but not for precipitation. This suggests that the regional temperature change signal is affectedmore » by local processes. Seasonally, model bias affects future mean and extreme values in winter and summer. In addition, potentially large increases in future extremes of temperature and precipitation values were projected. For three synthetic scenarios, systematically less bias and a narrow range of mean change for all variables were projected compared to those of climate model simulations. In addition, synthetic scenarios were found to better capture the spatial variability of extreme cold temperatures than the ensemble mean scenario. Finally, these results indicate that the synthetic scenarios have greater potential to reduce the uncertainty of future climate projections and capture the spatial variability of extreme climate events.« less

Impacts of Model Bias on the Climate Change Signal and Effects of Weighted Ensembles of Regional Climate Model Simulations: A Case Study over Southern Québec, Canada

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Eum, Hyung-Il; Gachon, Philippe; Laprise, René

This study examined the impact of model biases on climate change signals for daily precipitation and for minimum and maximum temperatures. Through the use of multiple climate scenarios from 12 regional climate model simulations, the ensemble mean, and three synthetic simulations generated by a weighting procedure, we investigated intermodel seasonal climate change signals between current and future periods, for both median and extreme precipitation/temperature values. A significant dependence of seasonal climate change signals on the model biases over southern Québec in Canada was detected for temperatures, but not for precipitation. This suggests that the regional temperature change signal is affectedmore » by local processes. Seasonally, model bias affects future mean and extreme values in winter and summer. In addition, potentially large increases in future extremes of temperature and precipitation values were projected. For three synthetic scenarios, systematically less bias and a narrow range of mean change for all variables were projected compared to those of climate model simulations. In addition, synthetic scenarios were found to better capture the spatial variability of extreme cold temperatures than the ensemble mean scenario. Finally, these results indicate that the synthetic scenarios have greater potential to reduce the uncertainty of future climate projections and capture the spatial variability of extreme climate events.« less

Aftercare engagement: A review of the literature through the lens of disparities.

PubMed

Keefe, Kristen; Cardemil, Esteban V; Thompson, Matthew

2017-02-01

While prior research has well documented racial and ethnic disparities in mental health care broadly, significantly less attention has been given to possible disparities existing in the transition to aftercare. Grounded in Klinkenberg and Calsyn's (1996) framework, we review current research on aftercare, identify commonalities between the prior and current reviews, and highlight gaps for future research. We focus on variables pertinent to our understanding of racial/ethnic disparities. Articles were retrieved via PsycINFO, PubMed, PsycARTICLES, and Google Scholar. We targeted those written in English and conducted in the United States after 1996 that examined aftercare and disparities-related variables. Accumulating evidence across the 18 studies that we reviewed suggests that disparities exist in aftercare engagement. We found clear support for significant racial/ethnic effects on aftercare engagement, such that racial/ethnic minorities are typically more vulnerable to disengagement than Whites. In addition, we found modest support for the association between aftercare engagement and other individual- and community-level variables, including sex, insurance status, prior outpatient treatment, and residence in an urban versus rural setting. Moreover, extant qualitative research has identified barriers to aftercare engagement including stigma, low mental health literacy, and negative attitudes toward treatment. Finally, systems-level variables including assertive outreach efforts and reduced length of time on waitlists were identified as consistent predictors of engagement. Suggestions for future research and clinical implications are explored. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Natural and Human-Induced Variability in Barrier-Island Response to Sea Level Rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miselis, Jennifer L.; Lorenzo-Trueba, Jorge

2017-12-01

Storm-driven sediment fluxes onto and behind barrier islands help coastal barrier systems keep pace with sea level rise (SLR). Understanding what controls cross-shore sediment flux magnitudes is critical for making accurate forecasts of barrier response to increased SLR rates. Here, using an existing morphodynamic model for barrier island evolution, observations are used to constrain model parameters and explore potential variability in future barrier behavior. Using modeled drowning outcomes as a proxy for vulnerability to SLR, 0%, 28%, and 100% of the barrier is vulnerable to SLR rates of 4, 7, and 10 mm/yr, respectively. When only overwash fluxes are increased in the model, drowning vulnerability increases for the same rates of SLR, suggesting that future increases in storminess may increase island vulnerability particularly where sediment resources are limited. Developed sites are more vulnerable to SLR, indicating that anthropogenic changes to overwash fluxes and estuary depths could profoundly affect future barrier response to SLR.

Natural and human-induced variability in barrier-island response to sea level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miselis, Jennifer L.; Lorenzo-Trueba, Jorge

2017-01-01

Storm-driven sediment fluxes onto and behind barrier islands help coastal barrier systems keep pace with sea level rise (SLR). Understanding what controls cross-shore sediment flux magnitudes is critical for making accurate forecasts of barrier response to increased SLR rates. Here, using an existing morphodynamic model for barrier island evolution, observations are used to constrain model parameters and explore potential variability in future barrier behavior. Using modeled drowning outcomes as a proxy for vulnerability to SLR, 0%, 28%, and 100% of the barrier is vulnerable to SLR rates of 4, 7, and 10 mm/yr, respectively. When only overwash fluxes are increased in the model, drowning vulnerability increases for the same rates of SLR, suggesting that future increases in storminess may increase island vulnerability particularly where sediment resources are limited. Developed sites are more vulnerable to SLR, indicating that anthropogenic changes to overwash fluxes and estuary depths could profoundly affect future barrier response to SLR.

Climate change and the distribution and conservation of the world's highest elevation woodlands in the South American Altiplano

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cuyckens, G. A. E.; Christie, D. A.; Domic, A. I.; Malizia, L. R.; Renison, D.

2016-02-01

Climate change is becoming an increasing threat to biodiversity. Consequently, methods for delineation, establishment and management of protected areas must consider the species' future distribution in response to future climate conditions. Biodiversity in high altitude semiarid regions may be particularly threatened by future climate change. In this study we assess the main environmental variables that best explain present day presence of the world's highest elevation woodlands in the South American Altiplano, and model how climate change may affect the future distribution of this unique ecosystem under different climate change scenarios. These woodlands are dominated by Polylepis tarapacana (Rosaceae), a species that forms unique biological communities with important conservation value. Our results indicate that five environmental variables are responsible for 91% and 90.3% of the present and future P. tarapacana distribution models respectively, and suggest that at the end of the 21st century, there will be a significant reduction (56%) in the potential habitat for this species due to more arid conditions. Since it is predicted that P. tarapacana's potential distribution will be severely reduced in the future, we propose a new network of national protected areas across this species distribution range in order to insure the future conservation of this unique ecosystem. Based on an extensive literature review we identify research topics and recommendations for on-ground conservation and management of P. tarapacana woodlands.

Native Silk Feedstock as a Model Biopolymer: A Rheological Perspective.

PubMed

Laity, Peter R; Holland, Chris

2016-08-08

Variability in silk's rheology is often regarded as an impediment to understanding or successfully copying the natural spinning process. We have previously reported such variability in unspun native silk extracted straight from the gland of the domesticated silkworm Bombyx mori and discounted classical explanations such as differences in molecular weight and concentration. We now report that variability in oscillatory measurements can be reduced onto a simple master-curve through normalizing with respect to the crossover. This remarkable result suggests that differences between silk feedstocks are rheologically simple and not as complex as originally thought. By comparison, solutions of poly(ethylene-oxide) and hydroxypropyl-methyl-cellulose showed similar normalization behavior; however, the resulting curves were broader than for silk, suggesting greater polydispersity in the (semi)synthetic materials. Thus, we conclude Nature may in fact produce polymer feedstocks that are more consistent than typical man-made counterparts as a model for future rheological investigations.

Climate change and wildfires

Treesearch

William J. De Groot; Michael D. Flannigan; Brian J. Stocks

2013-01-01

Wildland fire regimes are primarily driven by climate/weather, fuels and people. All of these factors are dynamic and their variable interactions create a mosaic of fire regimes around the world. Climate change will have a substantial impact on future fire regimes in many global regions. Current research suggests a general increase in area burned and fire occurrence...

Nonindustrial forest landowner research: A synthesis and new directions

Treesearch

Gregory S. Amacher; M. Christine Conway; J. Sullivan

2004-01-01

In this chapter, we review recent empirical work related to the economics of nonindustrial forest landowner behavior, discuss emerging problems involving these landowners, and suggest topics for future research. Before the late 1980s, most work in this area was aimed at identifying variables affecting reforestation or harvesting decisions. Recently, researchers have...

Sampling flies or sampling flaws? Experimental design and inference strength in forensic entomology.

PubMed

Michaud, J-P; Schoenly, Kenneth G; Moreau, G

2012-01-01

Forensic entomology is an inferential science because postmortem interval estimates are based on the extrapolation of results obtained in field or laboratory settings. Although enormous gains in scientific understanding and methodological practice have been made in forensic entomology over the last few decades, a majority of the field studies we reviewed do not meet the standards for inference, which are 1) adequate replication, 2) independence of experimental units, and 3) experimental conditions that capture a representative range of natural variability. Using a mock case-study approach, we identify design flaws in field and lab experiments and suggest methodological solutions for increasing inference strength that can inform future casework. Suggestions for improving data reporting in future field studies are also proposed.

Sources and Impacts of Modeled and Observed Low-Frequency Climate Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parsons, Luke Alexander

Here we analyze climate variability using instrumental, paleoclimate (proxy), and the latest climate model data to understand more about the sources and impacts of low-frequency climate variability. Understanding the drivers of climate variability at interannual to century timescales is important for studies of climate change, including analyses of detection and attribution of climate change impacts. Additionally, correctly modeling the sources and impacts of variability is key to the simulation of abrupt change (Alley et al., 2003) and extended drought (Seager et al., 2005; Pelletier and Turcotte, 1997; Ault et al., 2014). In Appendix A, we employ an Earth system model (GFDL-ESM2M) simulation to study the impacts of a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) on the climate of the American Tropics. The AMOC drives some degree of local and global internal low-frequency climate variability (Manabe and Stouffer, 1995; Thornalley et al., 2009) and helps control the position of the tropical rainfall belt (Zhang and Delworth, 2005). We find that a major weakening of the AMOC can cause large-scale temperature, precipitation, and carbon storage changes in Central and South America. Our results suggest that possible future changes in AMOC strength alone will not be sufficient to drive a large-scale dieback of the Amazonian forest, but this key natural ecosystem is sensitive to dry-season length and timing of rainfall (Parsons et al., 2014). In Appendix B, we compare a paleoclimate record of precipitation variability in the Peruvian Amazon to climate model precipitation variability. The paleoclimate (Lake Limon) record indicates that precipitation variability in western Amazonia is 'red' (i.e., increasing variability with timescale). By contrast, most state-of-the-art climate models indicate precipitation variability in this region is nearly 'white' (i.e., equally variability across timescales). This paleo-model disagreement in the overall structure of the variance spectrum has important consequences for the probability of multi-year drought. Our lake record suggests there is a significant background threat of multi-year, and even decade-length, drought in western Amazonia, whereas climate model simulations indicate most droughts likely last no longer than one to three years. These findings suggest climate models may underestimate the future risk of extended drought in this important region. In Appendix C, we expand our analysis of climate variability beyond South America. We use observations, well-constrained tropical paleoclimate, and Earth system model data to examine the overall shape of the climate spectrum across interannual to century frequencies. We find a general agreement among observations and models that temperature variability increases with timescale across most of the globe outside the tropics. However, as compared to paleoclimate records, climate models generate too little low-frequency variability in the tropics (e.g., Laepple and Huybers, 2014). When we compare the shape of the simulated climate spectrum to the spectrum of a simple autoregressive process, we find much of the modeled surface temperature variability in the tropics could be explained by ocean smoothing of weather noise. Importantly, modeled precipitation tends to be similar to white noise across much of the globe. By contrast, paleoclimate records of various types from around the globe indicate that both temperature and precipitation variability should experience much more low-frequency variability than a simple autoregressive or white-noise process. In summary, state-of-the-art climate models generate some degree of dynamically driven low-frequency climate variability, especially at high latitudes. However, the latest climate models, observations, and paleoclimate data provide us with drastically different pictures of the background climate system and its associated risks. This research has important consequences for improving how we simulate climate extremes as we enter a warmer (and often drier) world in the coming centuries; if climate models underestimate low-frequency variability, we will underestimate the risk of future abrupt change and extreme events, such as megadroughts.

Modeling the role of environmental variables on the population dynamics of the malaria vector Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The impact of weather and climate on malaria transmission has attracted considerable attention in recent years, yet uncertainties around future disease trends under climate change remain. Mathematical models provide powerful tools for addressing such questions and understanding the implications for interventions and eradication strategies, but these require realistic modeling of the vector population dynamics and its response to environmental variables. Methods Published and unpublished field and experimental data are used to develop new formulations for modeling the relationships between key aspects of vector ecology and environmental variables. These relationships are integrated within a validated deterministic model of Anopheles gambiae s.s. population dynamics to provide a valuable tool for understanding vector response to biotic and abiotic variables. Results A novel, parsimonious framework for assessing the effects of rainfall, cloudiness, wind speed, desiccation, temperature, relative humidity and density-dependence on vector abundance is developed, allowing ease of construction, analysis, and integration into malaria transmission models. Model validation shows good agreement with longitudinal vector abundance data from Tanzania, suggesting that recent malaria reductions in certain areas of Africa could be due to changing environmental conditions affecting vector populations. Conclusions Mathematical models provide a powerful, explanatory means of understanding the role of environmental variables on mosquito populations and hence for predicting future malaria transmission under global change. The framework developed provides a valuable advance in this respect, but also highlights key research gaps that need to be resolved if we are to better understand future malaria risk in vulnerable communities. PMID:22877154

African hydroclimatic variability during the last 2000 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nash, David J.; De Cort, Gijs; Chase, Brian M.; Verschuren, Dirk; Nicholson, Sharon E.; Shanahan, Timothy M.; Asrat, Asfawossen; Lézine, Anne-Marie; Grab, Stefan W.

2016-12-01

The African continent is characterised by a wide range of hydroclimate regimes, ranging from humid equatorial West Africa to the arid deserts in the northern and southern subtropics. The livelihoods of much of its population are also vulnerable to future climate change, mainly through variability in rainfall affecting water resource availability. A growing number of data sources indicate that such hydroclimatic variability is an intrinsic component of Africa's natural environment. This paper, co-authored by members of the PAGES Africa 2k Working Group, presents an extensive assessment and discussion of proxy, historical and instrumental evidence for hydroclimatic variability across the African continent, spanning the last two millennia. While the African palaeoenvironmental record is characterised by spatially disjunctive datasets, with often less-than-optimal temporal resolution and chronological control, the available evidence allows the assessment of prominent spatial patterns of palaeomoisture variability through time. In this study, we focus sequentially on data for six major time windows: the first millennium CE, the Medieval Climate Anomaly (900-1250 CE), the Little Ice Age (1250-1750 CE), the end of the LIA (1750-1850 CE), the Early Modern Period (1850-1950), and the period of recent warming (1950 onwards). This results in a continent-wide synthesis of regional moisture-balance trends through history, allowing consideration of possible driving mechanisms, and suggestions for future research.

Patterns and variability of projected bioclimatic habitat for Pinus albicaulis in the Greater Yellowstone Area.

PubMed

Chang, Tony; Hansen, Andrew J; Piekielek, Nathan

2014-01-01

Projected climate change at a regional level is expected to shift vegetation habitat distributions over the next century. For the sub-alpine species whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis), warming temperatures may indirectly result in loss of suitable bioclimatic habitat, reducing its distribution within its historic range. This research focuses on understanding the patterns of spatiotemporal variability for future projected P.albicaulis suitable habitat in the Greater Yellowstone Area (GYA) through a bioclimatic envelope approach. Since intermodel variability from General Circulation Models (GCMs) lead to differing predictions regarding the magnitude and direction of modeled suitable habitat area, nine bias-corrected statistically down-scaled GCMs were utilized to understand the uncertainty associated with modeled projections. P.albicaulis was modeled using a Random Forests algorithm for the 1980-2010 climate period and showed strong presence/absence separations by summer maximum temperatures and springtime snowpack. Patterns of projected habitat change by the end of the century suggested a constant decrease in suitable climate area from the 2010 baseline for both Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 8.5 and 4.5 climate forcing scenarios. Percent suitable climate area estimates ranged from 2-29% and 0.04-10% by 2099 for RCP 8.5 and 4.5 respectively. Habitat projections between GCMs displayed a decrease of variability over the 2010-2099 time period related to consistent warming above the 1910-2010 temperature normal after 2070 for all GCMs. A decreasing pattern of projected P.albicaulis suitable habitat area change was consistent across GCMs, despite strong differences in magnitude. Future ecological research in species distribution modeling should consider a full suite of GCM projections in the analysis to reduce extreme range contractions/expansions predictions. The results suggest that restoration strageties such as planting of seedlings and controlling competing vegetation may be necessary to maintain P.albicaulis in the GYA under the more extreme future climate scenarios.

Patterns and Variability of Projected Bioclimatic Habitat for Pinus albicaulis in the Greater Yellowstone Area

PubMed Central

Chang, Tony; Hansen, Andrew J.; Piekielek, Nathan

2014-01-01

Projected climate change at a regional level is expected to shift vegetation habitat distributions over the next century. For the sub-alpine species whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis), warming temperatures may indirectly result in loss of suitable bioclimatic habitat, reducing its distribution within its historic range. This research focuses on understanding the patterns of spatiotemporal variability for future projected P.albicaulis suitable habitat in the Greater Yellowstone Area (GYA) through a bioclimatic envelope approach. Since intermodel variability from General Circulation Models (GCMs) lead to differing predictions regarding the magnitude and direction of modeled suitable habitat area, nine bias-corrected statistically down-scaled GCMs were utilized to understand the uncertainty associated with modeled projections. P.albicaulis was modeled using a Random Forests algorithm for the 1980–2010 climate period and showed strong presence/absence separations by summer maximum temperatures and springtime snowpack. Patterns of projected habitat change by the end of the century suggested a constant decrease in suitable climate area from the 2010 baseline for both Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 8.5 and 4.5 climate forcing scenarios. Percent suitable climate area estimates ranged from 2–29% and 0.04–10% by 2099 for RCP 8.5 and 4.5 respectively. Habitat projections between GCMs displayed a decrease of variability over the 2010–2099 time period related to consistent warming above the 1910–2010 temperature normal after 2070 for all GCMs. A decreasing pattern of projected P.albicaulis suitable habitat area change was consistent across GCMs, despite strong differences in magnitude. Future ecological research in species distribution modeling should consider a full suite of GCM projections in the analysis to reduce extreme range contractions/expansions predictions. The results suggest that restoration strageties such as planting of seedlings and controlling competing vegetation may be necessary to maintain P.albicaulis in the GYA under the more extreme future climate scenarios. PMID:25372719

Growth gains from selective breeding in a spruce hybrid zone do not compromise local adaptation to climate.

PubMed

MacLachlan, Ian R; Yeaman, Sam; Aitken, Sally N

2018-02-01

Hybrid zones contain extensive standing genetic variation that facilitates rapid responses to selection. The Picea glauca  ×  Picea engelmannii hybrid zone in western Canada is the focus of tree breeding programs that annually produce ~90 million reforestation seedlings. Understanding the direct and indirect effects of selective breeding on adaptive variation is necessary to implement assisted gene flow (AGF) polices in Alberta and British Columbia that match these seedlings with future climates. We decomposed relationships among hybrid ancestry, adaptive traits, and climate to understand the implications of selective breeding for climate adaptations and AGF strategies. The effects of selection on associations among hybrid index estimated from ~6,500 SNPs, adaptive traits, and provenance climates were assessed for ~2,400 common garden seedlings. Hybrid index differences between natural and selected seedlings within breeding zones were small in Alberta (average +2%), but larger and more variable in BC (average -7%, range -24% to +1%), slightly favoring P. glauca ancestry. The average height growth gain of selected seedlings over natural seedlings within breeding zones was 36% (range 12%-86%). Clines in growth with temperature-related variables were strong, but differed little between selected and natural populations. Seedling hybrid index and growth trait associations with evapotranspiration-related climate variables were stronger in selected than in natural seedlings, indicating possible preadaptation to drier future climates. Associations among cold hardiness, hybrid ancestry, and cold-related climate variables dominated signals of local adaptation and were preserved in breeding populations. Strong hybrid ancestry-phenotype-climate associations suggest that AGF will be necessary to match interior spruce breeding populations with shifting future climates. The absence of antagonistic selection responses among traits and maintenance of cold adaptation in selected seedlings suggests breeding populations can be safely redeployed using AGF prescriptions similar to those of natural populations.

Future warming patterns linked to today’s climate variability

DOE PAGES

Dai, Aiguo

2016-01-11

The reliability of model projections of greenhouse gas (GHG)-induced future climate change is often assessed based on models’ ability to simulate the current climate, but there has been little evidence that connects the two. In fact, this practice has been questioned because the GHG-induced future climate change may involve additional physical processes that are not important for the current climate. Here I show that the spatial patterns of the GHG-induced future warming in the 21 st century is highly correlated with the patterns of the year-to-year variations of surface air temperature for today’s climate, with areas of larger variations duringmore » 1950–1979 having more GHG-induced warming in the 21 st century in all climate models. Such a relationship also exists in other climate fields such as atmospheric water vapor, and it is evident in observed temperatures from 1950–2010. The results suggest that many physical processes may work similarly in producing the year-to-year climate variations in the current climate and the GHG-induced long-term changes in the 21 st century in models and in the real world. Furthermore, they support the notion that models that simulate present-day climate variability better are likely to make more reliable predictions of future climate change.« less

Future Time Perspective in the Work Context: A Systematic Review of Quantitative Studies.

PubMed

Henry, Hélène; Zacher, Hannes; Desmette, Donatienne

2017-01-01

A core construct in the lifespan theory of socioemotional selectivity, future time perspective (FTP) refers to individuals' perceptions of their remaining time in life. Its adaptation to the work context, occupational future time perspective (OFTP), entails workers' perceptions of remaining time and opportunities in their careers. Over the past decade, several quantitative studies have investigated antecedents and consequences of general FTP and OFTP in the work context (i.e., FTP at work). We systematically review and critically discuss this literature on general FTP ( k = 17 studies) and OFTP ( k = 16 studies) and highlight implications for future research and practice. Results of our systematic review show that, in addition to its strong negative relationship with age, FTP at work is also associated with other individual (e.g., personality traits) and contextual variables (e.g., job characteristics). Moreover, FTP at work has been shown to mediate and moderate relationships of individual and contextual antecedents with occupational well-being, as well as motivational and behavioral outcomes. As a whole, findings suggest that FTP at work is an important variable in the field of work and aging, and that future research should improve the ways in which FTP at work is measured and results on FTP at work are reported.

Future Time Perspective in the Work Context: A Systematic Review of Quantitative Studies

PubMed Central

Henry, Hélène; Zacher, Hannes; Desmette, Donatienne

2017-01-01

A core construct in the lifespan theory of socioemotional selectivity, future time perspective (FTP) refers to individuals’ perceptions of their remaining time in life. Its adaptation to the work context, occupational future time perspective (OFTP), entails workers’ perceptions of remaining time and opportunities in their careers. Over the past decade, several quantitative studies have investigated antecedents and consequences of general FTP and OFTP in the work context (i.e., FTP at work). We systematically review and critically discuss this literature on general FTP (k = 17 studies) and OFTP (k = 16 studies) and highlight implications for future research and practice. Results of our systematic review show that, in addition to its strong negative relationship with age, FTP at work is also associated with other individual (e.g., personality traits) and contextual variables (e.g., job characteristics). Moreover, FTP at work has been shown to mediate and moderate relationships of individual and contextual antecedents with occupational well-being, as well as motivational and behavioral outcomes. As a whole, findings suggest that FTP at work is an important variable in the field of work and aging, and that future research should improve the ways in which FTP at work is measured and results on FTP at work are reported. PMID:28400741

Future warming patterns linked to today’s climate variability

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dai, Aiguo

The reliability of model projections of greenhouse gas (GHG)-induced future climate change is often assessed based on models’ ability to simulate the current climate, but there has been little evidence that connects the two. In fact, this practice has been questioned because the GHG-induced future climate change may involve additional physical processes that are not important for the current climate. Here I show that the spatial patterns of the GHG-induced future warming in the 21 st century is highly correlated with the patterns of the year-to-year variations of surface air temperature for today’s climate, with areas of larger variations duringmore » 1950–1979 having more GHG-induced warming in the 21 st century in all climate models. Such a relationship also exists in other climate fields such as atmospheric water vapor, and it is evident in observed temperatures from 1950–2010. The results suggest that many physical processes may work similarly in producing the year-to-year climate variations in the current climate and the GHG-induced long-term changes in the 21 st century in models and in the real world. Furthermore, they support the notion that models that simulate present-day climate variability better are likely to make more reliable predictions of future climate change.« less

Future Warming Patterns Linked to Today's Climate Variability.

PubMed

Dai, Aiguo

2016-01-11

The reliability of model projections of greenhouse gas (GHG)-induced future climate change is often assessed based on models' ability to simulate the current climate, but there has been little evidence that connects the two. In fact, this practice has been questioned because the GHG-induced future climate change may involve additional physical processes that are not important for the current climate. Here I show that the spatial patterns of the GHG-induced future warming in the 21(st) century is highly correlated with the patterns of the year-to-year variations of surface air temperature for today's climate, with areas of larger variations during 1950-1979 having more GHG-induced warming in the 21(st) century in all climate models. Such a relationship also exists in other climate fields such as atmospheric water vapor, and it is evident in observed temperatures from 1950-2010. The results suggest that many physical processes may work similarly in producing the year-to-year climate variations in the current climate and the GHG-induced long-term changes in the 21(st) century in models and in the real world. They support the notion that models that simulate present-day climate variability better are likely to make more reliable predictions of future climate change.

Regionally dependent summer heat wave response to increased surface temperature in the US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lopez, H.; Dong, S.; Kirtman, B. P.; Goni, G. J.; Lee, S. K.; Atlas, R. M.; West, R.

2017-12-01

Climate projections for the 21st Century suggest an increase in the occurrence of heat waves. However, the time it takes for the externally forced signal of climate change to emerge against the background of natural variability (i.e., Time of Emergence, ToE) particularly on the regional scale makes reliable future projection of heat waves challenging. Here, we combine observations and model simulations under present and future climate forcing to assess internal variability versus external forcing in modulating US heat waves. We characterized the most common heat wave patterns over the US by the use of clustering of extreme events by their spatial distribution. For each heat wave cluster, we assess changes in the probability density function (PDF) of summer temperature extremes by modeling the PDF as a stochastically generated skewed (SGS) distribution. The probability of necessary causation for each heat wave cluster was also quantified, allowing to make assessments of heat extreme attribution to anthropogenic climate change. The results suggest that internal variability will dominate heat wave occurrence over the Great Plains with ToE occurring in the 2050s (2070s) and of occurrence of ratio of warm-to-cold extremes of 1.7 (1.7) for the Northern (Southern) Plains. In contrast, external forcing will dominate over the Western (Great Lakes) region with ToE occurring as early as in the 2020s (2030s) and warm-to-cold extremes ratio of 6.4 (10.2), suggesting caution in attributing heat extremes to external forcing due to their regional dependence.

Evidence for divergence of response in Indica, Japonica, and wild rice to high CO2 x temperature interaction

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Previous studies suggest that the intraspecific variability of rice yield response to rising carbon dioxide concentration, [CO2], could serve as a basis of selection to improve genotypes for future high CO2 conditions. However, assessment of responses to elevated [CO2] must consider air temperature,...

Legacies in switchgrass resistance to and recovery from drought suggest that good years can sustain plants through bad years

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The warm-season perennial switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) is a candidate bioenergy crop. To be successful, switchgrass production must be maintained on low-quality landscapes with minimal inputs while facing future climates that are expected to be more extreme and more variable. We propose that ant...

Movies and mood: an exploration of the critical variables related to mood states

Treesearch

Laura L. Payne; Tammie Shaw; Linda L. Caldwell

1998-01-01

The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between movie viewing and mood, and to test the Pleasure Arousal Dominance (PAD) mood theory in a theater setting. The results of this exploratory study are presented here, challenging the PAD model, and providing suggestions for future research regarding the leisure and mood relationship.

Radiation dose-volume effects in the esophagus.

PubMed

Werner-Wasik, Maria; Yorke, Ellen; Deasy, Joseph; Nam, Jiho; Marks, Lawrence B

2010-03-01

Publications relating esophageal radiation toxicity to clinical variables and to quantitative dose and dose-volume measures derived from three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy for non-small-cell lung cancer are reviewed. A variety of clinical and dosimetric parameters have been associated with acute and late toxicity. Suggestions for future studies are presented. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Gender Bias in the College Classroom: A Critical Review of the Literature and Implications for Future Research.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brady, Kristine L.; Eisler, Richard M.

1995-01-01

Summarizes eight studies on gender bias in college classrooms, examining the range of variables assessed and adequacy of evidence supporting the existence of bias. Inconsistent findings and significant methodological flaws in existing literature suggest that more empirical research is needed to investigate the existence of gender bias in college…

Assessing effects of variation in global climate data sets on spatial predictions from climate envelope models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Romañach, Stephanie; Watling, James I.; Fletcher, Robert J.; Speroterra, Carolina; Bucklin, David N.; Brandt, Laura A.; Pearlstine, Leonard G.; Escribano, Yesenia; Mazzotti, Frank J.

2014-01-01

Climate change poses new challenges for natural resource managers. Predictive modeling of species–environment relationships using climate envelope models can enhance our understanding of climate change effects on biodiversity, assist in assessment of invasion risk by exotic organisms, and inform life-history understanding of individual species. While increasing interest has focused on the role of uncertainty in future conditions on model predictions, models also may be sensitive to the initial conditions on which they are trained. Although climate envelope models are usually trained using data on contemporary climate, we lack systematic comparisons of model performance and predictions across alternative climate data sets available for model training. Here, we seek to fill that gap by comparing variability in predictions between two contemporary climate data sets to variability in spatial predictions among three alternative projections of future climate. Overall, correlations between monthly temperature and precipitation variables were very high for both contemporary and future data. Model performance varied across algorithms, but not between two alternative contemporary climate data sets. Spatial predictions varied more among alternative general-circulation models describing future climate conditions than between contemporary climate data sets. However, we did find that climate envelope models with low Cohen's kappa scores made more discrepant spatial predictions between climate data sets for the contemporary period than did models with high Cohen's kappa scores. We suggest conservation planners evaluate multiple performance metrics and be aware of the importance of differences in initial conditions for spatial predictions from climate envelope models.

Enhanced groundwater recharge rates and altered recharge sensitivity to climate variability through subsurface heterogeneity

PubMed Central

Hartmann, Andreas; Gleeson, Tom; Wagener, Thorsten

2017-01-01

Our environment is heterogeneous. In hydrological sciences, the heterogeneity of subsurface properties, such as hydraulic conductivities or porosities, exerts an important control on water balance. This notably includes groundwater recharge, which is an important variable for efficient and sustainable groundwater resources management. Current large-scale hydrological models do not adequately consider this subsurface heterogeneity. Here we show that regions with strong subsurface heterogeneity have enhanced present and future recharge rates due to a different sensitivity of recharge to climate variability compared with regions with homogeneous subsurface properties. Our study domain comprises the carbonate rock regions of Europe, Northern Africa, and the Middle East, which cover ∼25% of the total land area. We compare the simulations of two large-scale hydrological models, one of them accounting for subsurface heterogeneity. Carbonate rock regions strongly exhibit “karstification,” which is known to produce particularly strong subsurface heterogeneity. Aquifers from these regions contribute up to half of the drinking water supply for some European countries. Our results suggest that water management for these regions cannot rely on most of the presently available projections of groundwater recharge because spatially variable storages and spatial concentration of recharge result in actual recharge rates that are up to four times larger for present conditions and changes up to five times larger for potential future conditions than previously estimated. These differences in recharge rates for strongly heterogeneous regions suggest a need for groundwater management strategies that are adapted to the fast transit of water from the surface to the aquifers. PMID:28242703

Enhanced Groundwater Recharge Rates and Altered Recharge Sensitivity to Climate Variability Through Subsurface Heterogeneity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hartmann, Andreas; Gleeson, Tom; Wada, Yoshihide; Wagener, Thorsten

2017-01-01

Our environment is heterogeneous. In hydrological sciences, the heterogeneity of subsurface properties, such as hydraulic conductivities or porosities, exerts an important control on water balance. This notably includes groundwater recharge, which is an important variable for efficient and sustainable groundwater resources management. Current large-scale hydrological models do not adequately consider this subsurface heterogeneity. Here we show that regions with strong subsurface heterogeneity have enhanced present and future recharge rates due to a different sensitivity of recharge to climate variability compared with regions with homogeneous subsurface properties. Our study domain comprises the carbonate rock regions of Europe, Northern Africa, and the Middle East, which cover 25 of the total land area. We compare the simulations of two large-scale hydrological models, one of them accounting for subsurface heterogeneity. Carbonate rock regions strongly exhibit karstification, which is known to produce particularly strong subsurface heterogeneity. Aquifers from these regions contribute up to half of the drinking water supply for some European countries. Our results suggest that water management for these regions cannot rely on most of the presently available projections of groundwater recharge because spatially variable storages and spatial concentration of recharge result in actual recharge rates that are up to four times larger for present conditions and changes up to five times larger for potential future conditions than previously estimated. These differences in recharge rates for strongly heterogeneous regions suggest a need for groundwater management strategies that are adapted to the fast transit of water from the surface to the aquifers.

Highly variable recurrence of tsunamis in the 7,400 years before the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horton, B.; Rubin, C. M.; Sieh, K.; Jessica, P.; Daly, P.; Ismail, N.; Parnell, A. C.

2017-12-01

The devastating 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami caught millions of coastal residents and the scientific community off-guard. Subsequent research in the Indian Ocean basin has identified prehistoric tsunamis, but the timing and recurrence intervals of such events are uncertain. Here, we identify coastal caves as a new depositional environment for reconstructing tsunami records and present a 5,000 year record of continuous tsunami deposits from a coastal cave in Sumatra, Indonesia which shows the irregular recurrence of 11 tsunamis between 7,400 and 2,900 years BP. The data demonstrates that the 2004 tsunami was just the latest in a sequence of devastating tsunamis stretching back to at least the early Holocene and suggests a high likelihood for future tsunamis in the Indian Ocean. The sedimentary record in the cave shows that ruptures of the Sunda megathrust vary between large (which generated the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami) and smaller slip failures. The chronology of events suggests the recurrence of multiple smaller tsunamis within relatively short time periods, interrupted by long periods of strain accumulation followed by giant tsunamis. The average time period between tsunamis is about 450 years with intervals ranging from a long, dormant period of over 2,000 years, to multiple tsunamis within the span of a century. The very long dormant period suggests that the Sunda megathrust is capable of accumulating large slip deficits between earthquakes. Such a high slip rupture would produce a substantially larger earthquake than the 2004 event. Although there is evidence that the likelihood of another tsunamigenic earthquake in Aceh province is high, these variable recurrence intervals suggest that long dormant periods may follow Sunda Megathrust ruptures as large as that of 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. The remarkable variability of recurrence suggests that regional hazard mitigation plans should be based upon the high likelihood of future destructive tsunami demonstrated by the cave record and other paleotsunami sites, rather than estimates of recurrence intervals.

Optimal control of a variable spin speed CMG system for space vehicles. [Control Moment Gyros

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, T. C.; Chubb, W. B.; Seltzer, S. M.; Thompson, Z.

1973-01-01

Many future NASA programs require very high accurate pointing stability. These pointing requirements are well beyond anything attempted to date. This paper suggests a control system which has the capability of meeting these requirements. An optimal control law for the suggested system is specified. However, since no direct method of solution is known for this complicated system, a computation technique using successive approximations is used to develop the required solution. The method of calculus of variations is applied for estimating the changes of index of performance as well as those constraints of inequality of state variables and terminal conditions. Thus, an algorithm is obtained by the steepest descent method and/or conjugate gradient method. Numerical examples are given to show the optimal controls.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bougamont, M.; Christoffersen, P.; Price, S. F.

Ongoing, centennial-scale flow variability within the Ross ice streams of West Antarctica suggests that the present-day positive mass balance in this region may reverse in the future. Here we use a three-dimensional ice sheet model to simulate ice flow in this region over 250 years. The flow responds to changing basal properties, as a subglacial till layer interacts with water transported in an active subglacial hydrological system. We show that a persistent weak bed beneath the tributaries of the dormant Kamb Ice Stream is a source of internal ice flow instability, which reorganizes all ice streams in this region, leadingmore » to a reduced (positive) mass balance within decades and a net loss of ice within two centuries. This hitherto unaccounted for flow variability could raise sea level by 5 mm this century. Furthermore, better constraints on future sea level change from this region will require improved estimates of geothermal heat flux and subglacial water transport.« less

Reduced interdecadal variability of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation under global warming.

PubMed

Cheng, Jun; Liu, Zhengyu; Zhang, Shaoqing; Liu, Wei; Dong, Lina; Liu, Peng; Li, Hongli

2016-03-22

Interdecadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC-IV) plays an important role in climate variation and has significant societal impacts. Past climate reconstruction indicates that AMOC-IV has likely undergone significant changes. Despite some previous studies, responses of AMOC-IV to global warming remain unclear, in particular regarding its amplitude and time scale. In this study, we analyze the responses of AMOC-IV under various scenarios of future global warming in multiple models and find that AMOC-IV becomes weaker and shorter with enhanced global warming. From the present climate condition to the strongest future warming scenario, on average, the major period of AMOC-IV is shortened from ∼50 y to ∼20 y, and the amplitude is reduced by ∼60%. These reductions in period and amplitude of AMOC-IV are suggested to be associated with increased oceanic stratification under global warming and, in turn, the speedup of oceanic baroclinic Rossby waves.

Characterizing Temperature Variability and Associated Large Scale Meteorological Patterns Across South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Detzer, J.; Loikith, P. C.; Mechoso, C. R.; Barkhordarian, A.; Lee, H.

2017-12-01

South America's climate varies considerably owing to its large geographic range and diverse topographical features. Spanning the tropics to the mid-latitudes and from high peaks to tropical rainforest, the continent experiences an array of climate and weather patterns. Due to this considerable spatial extent, assessing temperature variability at the continent scale is particularly challenging. It is well documented in the literature that temperatures have been increasing across portions of South America in recent decades, and while there have been many studies that have focused on precipitation variability and change, temperature has received less scientific attention. Therefore, a more thorough understanding of the drivers of temperature variability is critical for interpreting future change. First, k-means cluster analysis is used to identify four primary modes of temperature variability across the continent, stratified by season. Next, composites of large scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs) are calculated for months assigned to each cluster. Initial results suggest that LSMPs, defined using meteorological variables such as sea level pressure (SLP), geopotential height, and wind, are able to identify synoptic scale mechanisms important for driving temperature variability at the monthly scale. Some LSMPs indicate a relationship with known recurrent modes of climate variability. For example, composites of geopotential height suggest that the Southern Annular Mode is an important, but not necessarily dominant, component of temperature variability over southern South America. This work will be extended to assess the drivers of temperature extremes across South America.

Sleep Disturbances in Child and Adolescent Mental Health Disorders: A Review of the Variability of Objective Sleep Markers.

PubMed

Baddam, Suman K R; Canapari, Craig A; van Noordt, Stefon J R; Crowley, Michael J

2018-06-04

Sleep disturbances are often observed in child and adolescent mental health disorders. Although previous research has identified consistent subjective reports of sleep disturbances, specific objective sleep markers have not yet been identified. We evaluated the current research on subjective and objective sleep markers in relation to attention deficit hyperactivity disorders, autism spectrum disorders, anxiety and depressive disorders. Subjective sleep markers are more consistent than objective markers of actigraphy, polysomnography, and circadian measures. We discuss the causes of variability in objective sleep findings and suggest future directions for research.

Living aloft: Human requirements for extended spaceflight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Connors, M. M.; Harrison, A. A.; Akins, F. R.

1985-01-01

Human psychological and social adjustment to space is investigated. Studies and experiences bearing on human performance capability, psychological well being, and social organization, as they relate to space, were identified and assessed, and suggestions offered as to where further research could ease the Earth/space transition. Special emphasis was given to the variables of crew size, crew diversity, and mission duration, all of which can be expected to increase in future spaceflight. By providing a conceptual framework in which issues and related information can be integrated, the hope is to aid in discovering those conditions under which future space travelers can flourish.

A systematic literature review of engineering identity: definitions, factors, and interventions affecting development, and means of measurement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morelock, John R.

2017-11-01

Studies exploring what it means to be an engineer professionally have been conducted for decades, but have boomed in recent years. This systematic literature review aims to organise extant studies on engineering identity by coding around four key variables: (a) definitions of engineering identity, (b) factors affecting engineering identity development, (c) interventions affecting engineering identity development, and (d) means of measuring identity. In doing so, this review provides strategies for future research and educational interventions to advance work related to engineering identity. Publications were selected for inclusion by screening and appraising results obtained from databases and keywords refined through a scoping study. Derived from key findings, suggestions for future research include bridging disparate strands of engineering identity literature and incorporating more varied methodological approaches. Also from key findings, suggestions for future practice involve better connecting existing definitions of engineering identity and factors known to affect identity development with identity-related interventions.

Future changes in peak river flows across northern Eurasia as inferred from an ensemble of regional climate projections under the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shkolnik, Igor; Pavlova, Tatiana; Efimov, Sergey; Zhuravlev, Sergey

2018-01-01

Climate change simulation based on 30-member ensemble of Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory RCM (resolution 25 km) for northern Eurasia is used to drive hydrological model CaMa-Flood. Using this modeling framework, we evaluate the uncertainties in the future projection of the peak river discharge and flood hazard by 2050-2059 relative to 1990-1999 under IPCC RCP8.5 scenario. Large ensemble size, along with reasonably high modeling resolution, allows one to efficiently sample natural climate variability and increase our ability to predict future changes in the hydrological extremes. It has been shown that the annual maximum river discharge can almost double by the mid-XXI century in the outlets of major Siberian rivers. In the western regions, there is a weak signal in the river discharge and flood hazard, hardly discernible above climate variability. Annual maximum flood area is projected to increase across Siberia mostly by 2-5% relative to the baseline period. A contribution of natural climate variability at different temporal scales to the uncertainty of ensemble prediction is discussed. The analysis shows that there expected considerable changes in the extreme river discharge probability at locations of the key hydropower facilities. This suggests that the extensive impact studies are required to develop recommendations for maintaining regional energy security.

The devil is in the details: Comparisons of episodic simulations of positive and negative future events.

PubMed

Puig, Vannia A; Szpunar, Karl K

2017-08-01

Over the past decade, psychologists have devoted considerable attention to episodic simulation-the ability to imagine specific hypothetical events. Perhaps one of the most consistent patterns of data to emerge from this literature is that positive simulations of the future are rated as more detailed than negative simulations of the future, a pattern of results that is commonly interpreted as evidence for a positivity bias in future thinking. In the present article, we demonstrate across two experiments that negative future events are consistently simulated in more detail than positive future events when frequency of prior thinking is taken into account as a possible confounding variable and when level of detail associated with simulated events is assessed using an objective scoring criterion. Our findings are interpreted in the context of the mobilization-minimization hypothesis of event cognition that suggests people are especially likely to devote cognitive resources to processing negative scenarios. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Evaluating Behavioral Economic Models of Heavy Drinking Among College Students.

PubMed

Acuff, Samuel F; Soltis, Kathryn E; Dennhardt, Ashley A; Berlin, Kristoffer S; Murphy, James G

2018-05-14

Heavy drinking among college students is a significant public health concern that can lead to profound social and health consequences, including alcohol use disorder. Behavioral economics posits that low future orientation and high valuation of alcohol (alcohol demand) combined with deficits in alternative reinforcement increase the likelihood of alcohol misuse (Bickel et al., 2011). Despite this, no study has examined the incremental utility of all three variables simultaneously in a comprehensive model METHOD: The current study uses structural equation modeling to test the associations between behavioral economic variables - alcohol demand (latent), future orientation (measured with a delay discounting task and the Consideration of Future Consequences (CFC) scale), and proportionate substance-related reinforcement - and alcohol consumption and problems among 393 heavy drinking college students. Two models are tested: 1) an iteration of the reinforcer pathology model that includes an interaction between future orientation and alcohol demand; and 2) an alternative model evaluating the interconnectedness of behavioral economic variables in predicting problematic alcohol use RESULTS: The interaction effects in model 1 were nonsignificant. Model 2 suggests that greater alcohol demand and proportionate substance-related reinforcement is associated with greater alcohol consumption and problems. Further, CFC was associated with alcohol-related problems and lower proportionate substance-related reinforcement but was not significantly associated with alcohol consumption or alcohol demand. Finally, greater proportionate substance-related reinforcement was associated with greater alcohol demand CONCLUSIONS: Our results support the validity of the behavioral economic reinforcer pathology model as applied to young adult heavy drinking. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Predicting future staffing needs at teaching hospitals: use of an analytical program with multiple variables.

PubMed

Mitchell, Christine C; Ashley, Stanley W; Zinner, Michael J; Moore, Francis D

2007-04-01

To develop a model to predict future staffing for the surgery service at a teaching hospital. Tertiary hospital. A computer model with potential future variables was constructed. Some of the variables were distribution of resident staff, fellows, and physician extenders; salary/wages; work hours; educational value of rotations; work units, inpatient wards, and clinics; future volume growth; and efficiency savings. Outcomes Number of staff to be hired, staffing expense, and educational impact. On a busy general surgery service, we estimated the impact of changes in resident work hours, service growth, and workflow efficiency in the next 5 years. Projecting a reduction in resident duty hours to 60 hours per week will require the hiring of 10 physician assistants at a cost of $1 134 000, a cost that is increased by $441 000 when hiring hospitalists instead. Implementing a day of didactic and simulator time (10 hours) will further increase the costs by $568 000. A 10% improvement in the efficiency of floor care, as might be gained by advanced information technology capability or by regionalization of patients, can mitigate these expenses by as much as 21%. On the other hand, a modest annual growth of 2% will increase the costs by $715 000 to $2 417 000. To simply replace residents with alternative providers requires large amounts of human and fiscal capital. The potential for simple efficiencies to mitigate some of this expense suggests that traditional patterns of care in teaching hospitals will have to change in response to educational mandates.

Obesity and severe obesity forecasts through 2030.

PubMed

Finkelstein, Eric A; Khavjou, Olga A; Thompson, Hope; Trogdon, Justin G; Pan, Liping; Sherry, Bettylou; Dietz, William

2012-06-01

Previous efforts to forecast future trends in obesity applied linear forecasts assuming that the rise in obesity would continue unabated. However, evidence suggests that obesity prevalence may be leveling off. This study presents estimates of adult obesity and severe obesity prevalence through 2030 based on nonlinear regression models. The forecasted results are then used to simulate the savings that could be achieved through modestly successful obesity prevention efforts. The study was conducted in 2009-2010 and used data from the 1990 through 2008 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS). The analysis sample included nonpregnant adults aged ≥ 18 years. The individual-level BRFSS variables were supplemented with state-level variables from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the American Chamber of Commerce Research Association, and the Census of Retail Trade. Future obesity and severe obesity prevalence were estimated through regression modeling by projecting trends in explanatory variables expected to influence obesity prevalence. Linear time trend forecasts suggest that by 2030, 51% of the population will be obese. The model estimates a much lower obesity prevalence of 42% and severe obesity prevalence of 11%. If obesity were to remain at 2010 levels, the combined savings in medical expenditures over the next 2 decades would be $549.5 billion. The study estimates a 33% increase in obesity prevalence and a 130% increase in severe obesity prevalence over the next 2 decades. If these forecasts prove accurate, this will further hinder efforts for healthcare cost containment. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The role of job strain in understanding midlife common mental disorder: a national birth cohort study.

PubMed

Harvey, Samuel B; Sellahewa, Dilan A; Wang, Min-Jung; Milligan-Saville, Josie; Bryan, Bridget T; Henderson, Max; Hatch, Stephani L; Mykletun, Arnstein

2018-06-01

Long-standing concerns exist about reverse causation and residual confounding in the prospective association between job strain and risk of future common mental disorders. We aimed to address these concerns through analysis of data collected in the UK National Child Development Study, a large British cohort study. Data from the National Child Development Study (n=6870) were analysed by use of multivariate logistic regression to investigate the prospective association between job strain variables at age 45 years and risk of future common mental disorders at age 50 years, controlling for lifetime psychiatric history and a range of other possible confounding variables across the lifecourse. Population attributable fractions were calculated to estimate the public health effect of job strain on midlife mental health. In the final model, adjusted for all measured confounders, high job demands (odds ratio 1·70, 95% CI 1·25-2·32; p=0·0008), low job control (1·89, 1·29-2·77; p=0·0010), and high job strain (2·22, 1·59-3·09; p<0·0001) remained significant independent predictors of future onset of common mental disorder. If causality is assumed, our findings suggest that 14% of new cases of common mental disorder could have been prevented through elimination of high job strain (population attributable fraction 0·14, 0·06-0·20). High job strain appears to independently affect the risk of future common mental disorders in midlife. These findings suggest that modifiable work-related risk factors might be an important target in efforts to reduce the prevalence of common mental disorders. iCare Foundation and Mental Health Branch, NSW Health. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Job stress and mental well-being: similarities and differences among American, Japanese, and Indian managers.

PubMed

DeFrank, R S; Ivancevich, J M; Schweiger, D M

1988-01-01

The sources and mediators of occupational stress have been assessed frequently but rarely from a cross-cultural perspective. The present study examined responses to a number of stress, social support, job satisfaction, and personal characteristics measures and their relationships to mental well-being among samples of lower-, middle-, and upper-level managers in the United States, Japan, and India. These data suggested basic similarities between 178 U.S. and 306 Indian managers; the 222 Japanese managers tended to report more negative reactions than the other two groups. Variability among these groups was seen, however, in the relative weights given to the factors of the mental well-being measure and in the association of these factors with the various independent variables. Implications and shortcomings of these results are discussed, along with suggestions for future research priorities.

Observations of Local Positive Low Cloud Feedback Patterns and Their Role in Internal Variability and Climate Sensitivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Tianle; Oreopoulos, Lazaros; Platnick, Steven E.; Meyer, Kerry

2018-05-01

Modeling studies have shown that cloud feedbacks are sensitive to the spatial pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, while cloud feedbacks themselves strongly influence the magnitude of SST anomalies. Observational counterparts to such patterned interactions are still needed. Here we show that distinct large-scale patterns of SST and low-cloud cover (LCC) emerge naturally from objective analyses of observations and demonstrate their close coupling in a positive local SST-LCC feedback loop that may be important for both internal variability and climate change. The two patterns that explain the maximum amount of covariance between SST and LCC correspond to the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, leading modes of multidecadal internal variability. Spatial patterns and time series of SST and LCC anomalies associated with both modes point to a strong positive local SST-LCC feedback. In many current climate models, our analyses suggest that SST-LCC feedback strength is too weak compared to observations. Modeled local SST-LCC feedback strength affects simulated internal variability so that stronger feedback produces more intense and more realistic patterns of internal variability. To the extent that the physics of the local positive SST-LCC feedback inferred from observed climate variability applies to future greenhouse warming, we anticipate significant amount of delayed warming because of SST-LCC feedback when anthropogenic SST warming eventually overwhelm the effects of internal variability that may mute anthropogenic warming over parts of the ocean. We postulate that many climate models may be underestimating both future warming and the magnitude of modeled internal variability because of their weak SST-LCC feedback.

Examining the moderating role of family cohesion on the relationship between witnessed community violence and delinquency in a national sample of adolescents.

PubMed

Barr, Simone C; Hanson, Rochelle; Begle, Angela M; Kilpatrick, Dean G; Saunders, Benjamin; Resnick, Heidi; Amstadter, Ananda

2012-01-01

Witnessed community violence has been linked to a number of internalizing and externalizing problems in adolescents. Guided by Cicchetti and Lynch's (1993) ecological-transactional model, this study aimed to examine the impact that family-level factors had on negative outcomes associated with witnessed community violence. Using a nationally representative sample, we explored the moderational role of family cohesion in the relationship between witnessing community violence and delinquent behavior while taking demographic variables into account. Results from the investigation suggested that low levels of family cohesion were predictive of delinquency after controlling for race, gender, past delinquency, and direct trauma. In addition, the findings suggested that family cohesion moderated the impact of witnessed community violence on future delinquent behavior. Future directions for research and implications for practice were also discussed.

Planting a Tree while Envisioning the Forest--The Recursive Relation between Theory and Research: Reply to Blustein (2003).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tokar, David M.; Hall, Rosalie J.; Moradi, Bonnie

2003-01-01

In his comments regarding Tokar et al.'s article (this issue) Blustein offered several useful suggestions for future research in the area of relationship variables and career development and raised several concerns about the rationale for and use of structural equation modeling in testing their models. In this reply, the authors note points of…

Physician communication in the operating room: expanding application of face-negotiation theory to the health communication context.

PubMed

Kirschbaum, Kristin

2012-01-01

Communication variables that are associated with face-negotiation theory were examined in a sample of operating-room physicians. A survey was administered to anesthesiologists and surgeons at a teaching hospital in the southwestern United States to measure three variables commonly associated with face-negotiation theory: conflict-management style, face concern, and self-construal. The survey instrument that was administered to physicians includes items that measured these three variables in previous face-negotiation research with slight modification of item wording for relevance in the medical setting. The physician data were analyzed using confirmatory factor analysis, Pearson's correlations, and t-tests. Results of this initial investigation showed that variables associated with face-negotiation theory were evident in the sample physician population. In addition, the correlations were similar among variables in the medical sample as those found in previous face-negotiation research. Finally, t-tests suggest variance between anesthesiologists and surgeons on specific communication variables. These findings suggest three implications that warrant further investigation with expanded sample size: (1) An intercultural communication theory and instrument can be utilized for health communication research; (2) as applied in a medical context, face-negotiation theory can be expanded beyond traditional intercultural communication boundaries; and (3) theoretically based communication structures applied in a medical context could help explain physician miscommunication in the operating room to assist future design of communication training programs for operating-room physicians.

Seemingly unrelated intervention time series models for effectiveness evaluation of large scale environmental remediation.

PubMed

Ip, Ryan H L; Li, W K; Leung, Kenneth M Y

2013-09-15

Large scale environmental remediation projects applied to sea water always involve large amount of capital investments. Rigorous effectiveness evaluations of such projects are, therefore, necessary and essential for policy review and future planning. This study aims at investigating effectiveness of environmental remediation using three different Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) time series models with intervention effects, including Model (1) assuming no correlation within and across variables, Model (2) assuming no correlation across variable but allowing correlations within variable across different sites, and Model (3) allowing all possible correlations among variables (i.e., an unrestricted model). The results suggested that the unrestricted SUR model is the most reliable one, consistently having smallest variations of the estimated model parameters. We discussed our results with reference to marine water quality management in Hong Kong while bringing managerial issues into consideration. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reservoirs performances under climate variability: a case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Longobardi, A.; Mautone, M.; de Luca, C.

2014-09-01

A case study, the Piano della Rocca dam (southern Italy) is discussed here in order to quantify the system performances under climate variability conditions. Different climate scenarios have been stochastically generated according to the tendencies in precipitation and air temperature observed during recent decades for the studied area. Climate variables have then been filtered through an ARMA model to generate, at the monthly scale, time series of reservoir inflow volumes. Controlled release has been computed considering the reservoir is operated following the standard linear operating policy (SLOP) and reservoir performances have been assessed through the calculation of reliability, resilience and vulnerability indices (Hashimoto et al. 1982), comparing current and future scenarios of climate variability. The proposed approach can be suggested as a valuable tool to mitigate the effects of moderate to severe and persistent droughts periods, through the allocation of new water resources or the planning of appropriate operational rules.

Dengue: recent past and future threats

PubMed Central

Rogers, David J.

2015-01-01

This article explores four key questions about statistical models developed to describe the recent past and future of vector-borne diseases, with special emphasis on dengue: (1) How many variables should be used to make predictions about the future of vector-borne diseases?(2) Is the spatial resolution of a climate dataset an important determinant of model accuracy?(3) Does inclusion of the future distributions of vectors affect predictions of the futures of the diseases they transmit?(4) Which are the key predictor variables involved in determining the distributions of vector-borne diseases in the present and future?Examples are given of dengue models using one, five or 10 meteorological variables and at spatial resolutions of from one-sixth to two degrees. Model accuracy is improved with a greater number of descriptor variables, but is surprisingly unaffected by the spatial resolution of the data. Dengue models with a reduced set of climate variables derived from the HadCM3 global circulation model predictions for the 1980s are improved when risk maps for dengue's two main vectors (Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus) are also included as predictor variables; disease and vector models are projected into the future using the global circulation model predictions for the 2020s, 2040s and 2080s. The Garthwaite–Koch corr-max transformation is presented as a novel way of showing the relative contribution of each of the input predictor variables to the map predictions. PMID:25688021

Wuestite (Fe/1-x/O) - A review of its defect structure and physical properties

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hazen, R. M.; Jeanloz, R.

1984-01-01

Such complexities of the Wustite structure as nonstoichiometry, ferric iron variable site distribution, long and short range ordering, and exsolution, yield complex physical properties. Magnesiowustite, a phase which has been suggested to occur in the earth's lower mantle, is also expected to exhibit many of these complexities. Geophysical models including the properties of (Mg, Fe)O should accordingly take into account the uncertainties associated with the synthesis and measurement of iron-rich oxides. Given the variability of the Fe(1-x)O structure, it is important that future researchers define the structural state and extent of exsolution of their samples.

Physical and property victimization behind bars: a multilevel examination.

PubMed

Lahm, Karen F

2009-06-01

The majority of the extant literature on inmate victimization considers only one level of analysis, thus ignoring the interaction effects between inmate- and prison-level variables. To extend this literature, multilevel modeling techniques were used to analyze self-report data from more than 1,000 inmates and 30 prisons in Kentucky, Tennessee, and Ohio. Results revealed that demographic variables were strong predictors of physical victimization (i.e., race and assaultive behavior). Also, security level had a contextual direct effect on physical victimization. Property victimization was best explained with an integrated model including inmate (i.e., race, assaultive behavior, prior education, prior employment, and time served), contextual (i.e., security level and proportion non-White), and micro-macro interaction variables (i.e., Race x Security Level). Policy implications and suggestions for future research are discussed.

Improving sea level simulation in Mediterranean regional climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adloff, Fanny; Jordà, Gabriel; Somot, Samuel; Sevault, Florence; Arsouze, Thomas; Meyssignac, Benoit; Li, Laurent; Planton, Serge

2017-08-01

For now, the question about future sea level change in the Mediterranean remains a challenge. Previous climate modelling attempts to estimate future sea level change in the Mediterranean did not meet a consensus. The low resolution of CMIP-type models prevents an accurate representation of important small scales processes acting over the Mediterranean region. For this reason among others, the use of high resolution regional ocean modelling has been recommended in literature to address the question of ongoing and future Mediterranean sea level change in response to climate change or greenhouse gases emissions. Also, it has been shown that east Atlantic sea level variability is the dominant driver of the Mediterranean variability at interannual and interdecadal scales. However, up to now, long-term regional simulations of the Mediterranean Sea do not integrate the full sea level information from the Atlantic, which is a substantial shortcoming when analysing Mediterranean sea level response. In the present study we analyse different approaches followed by state-of-the-art regional climate models to simulate Mediterranean sea level variability. Additionally we present a new simulation which incorporates improved information of Atlantic sea level forcing at the lateral boundary. We evaluate the skills of the different simulations in the frame of long-term hindcast simulations spanning from 1980 to 2012 analysing sea level variability from seasonal to multidecadal scales. Results from the new simulation show a substantial improvement in the modelled Mediterranean sea level signal. This confirms that Mediterranean mean sea level is strongly influenced by the Atlantic conditions, and thus suggests that the quality of the information in the lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) is crucial for the good modelling of Mediterranean sea level. We also found that the regional differences inside the basin, that are induced by circulation changes, are model-dependent and thus not affected by the LBCs. Finally, we argue that a correct configuration of LBCs in the Atlantic should be used for future Mediterranean simulations, which cover hindcast period, but also for scenarios.

Long-Term Climate Forcing in Loggerhead Sea Turtle Nesting

PubMed Central

Van Houtan, Kyle S.; Halley, John M.

2011-01-01

The long-term variability of marine turtle populations remains poorly understood, limiting science and management. Here we use basin-scale climate indices and regional surface temperatures to estimate loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta) nesting at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. Borrowing from fisheries research, our models investigate how oceanographic processes influence juvenile recruitment and regulate population dynamics. This novel approach finds local populations in the North Pacific and Northwest Atlantic are regionally synchronized and strongly correlated to ocean conditions—such that climate models alone explain up to 88% of the observed changes over the past several decades. In addition to its performance, climate-based modeling also provides mechanistic forecasts of historical and future population changes. Hindcasts in both regions indicate climatic conditions may have been a factor in recent declines, but future forecasts are mixed. Available climatic data suggests the Pacific population will be significantly reduced by 2040, but indicates the Atlantic population may increase substantially. These results do not exonerate anthropogenic impacts, but highlight the significance of bottom-up oceanographic processes to marine organisms. Future studies should consider environmental baselines in assessments of marine turtle population variability and persistence. PMID:21589639

Climate change and the northern Russian treeline zone.

PubMed

MacDonald, G M; Kremenetski, K V; Beilman, D W

2008-07-12

The Russian treeline is a dynamic ecotone typified by steep gradients in summer temperature and regionally variable gradients in albedo and heat flux. The location of the treeline is largely controlled by summer temperatures and growing season length. Temperatures have responded strongly to twentieth-century global warming and will display a magnified response to future warming. Dendroecological studies indicate enhanced conifer recruitment during the twentieth century. However, conifers have not yet recolonized many areas where trees were present during the Medieval Warm period (ca AD 800-1,300) or the Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM; ca 10,000-3,000 years ago). Reconstruction of tree distributions during the HTM suggests that the future position of the treeline due to global warming may approximate its former Holocene maximum position. An increased dominance of evergreen tree species in the northern Siberian forests may be an important difference between past and future conditions. Based on the slow rates of treeline expansion observed during the twentieth century, the presence of steep climatic gradients associated with the current Arctic coastline and the prevalence of organic soils, it is possible that rates of treeline expansion will be regionally variable and transient forest communities with species abundances different from today's may develop.

Long-term climate forcing in loggerhead sea turtle nesting.

PubMed

Van Houtan, Kyle S; Halley, John M

2011-04-27

The long-term variability of marine turtle populations remains poorly understood, limiting science and management. Here we use basin-scale climate indices and regional surface temperatures to estimate loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta) nesting at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. Borrowing from fisheries research, our models investigate how oceanographic processes influence juvenile recruitment and regulate population dynamics. This novel approach finds local populations in the North Pacific and Northwest Atlantic are regionally synchronized and strongly correlated to ocean conditions--such that climate models alone explain up to 88% of the observed changes over the past several decades. In addition to its performance, climate-based modeling also provides mechanistic forecasts of historical and future population changes. Hindcasts in both regions indicate climatic conditions may have been a factor in recent declines, but future forecasts are mixed. Available climatic data suggests the Pacific population will be significantly reduced by 2040, but indicates the Atlantic population may increase substantially. These results do not exonerate anthropogenic impacts, but highlight the significance of bottom-up oceanographic processes to marine organisms. Future studies should consider environmental baselines in assessments of marine turtle population variability and persistence.

Vulnerability of breeding waterbirds to climate change in the Prairie Pothole Region, U.S.A.

PubMed

Steen, Valerie; Skagen, Susan K; Noon, Barry R

2014-01-01

The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of the north-central U.S. and south-central Canada contains millions of small prairie wetlands that provide critical habitat to many migrating and breeding waterbirds. Due to their small size and the relatively dry climate of the region, these wetlands are considered at high risk for negative climate change effects as temperatures increase. To estimate the potential impacts of climate change on breeding waterbirds, we predicted current and future distributions of species common in the PPR using species distribution models (SDMs). We created regional-scale SDMs for the U.S. PPR using Breeding Bird Survey occurrence records for 1971-2011 and wetland, upland, and climate variables. For each species, we predicted current distribution based on climate records for 1981-2000 and projected future distributions to climate scenarios for 2040-2049. Species were projected to, on average, lose almost half their current habitat (-46%). However, individual species projections varied widely, from +8% (Upland Sandpiper) to -100% (Wilson's Snipe). Variable importance ranks indicated that land cover (wetland and upland) variables were generally more important than climate variables in predicting species distributions. However, climate variables were relatively more important during a drought period. Projected distributions of species responses to climate change contracted within current areas of distribution rather than shifting. Given the large variation in species-level impacts, we suggest that climate change mitigation efforts focus on species projected to be the most vulnerable by enacting targeted wetland management, easement acquisition, and restoration efforts.

Spatial heterogeneity of within-stream methane concentrations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crawford, John T.; Loken, Luke C.; West, William E.; Crary, Benjamin; Spawn, Seth A.; Gubbins, Nicholas; Jones, Stuart E.; Striegl, Robert G.; Stanley, Emily H.

2017-05-01

Streams, rivers, and other freshwater features may be significant sources of CH4 to the atmosphere. However, high spatial and temporal variabilities hinder our ability to understand the underlying processes of CH4 production and delivery to streams and also challenge the use of scaling approaches across large areas. We studied a stream having high geomorphic variability to assess the underlying scale of CH4 spatial variability and to examine whether the physical structure of a stream can explain the variation in surface CH4. A combination of high-resolution CH4 mapping, a survey of groundwater CH4 concentrations, quantitative analysis of methanogen DNA, and sediment CH4 production potentials illustrates the spatial and geomorphic controls on CH4 emissions to the atmosphere. We observed significant spatial clustering with high CH4 concentrations in organic-rich stream reaches and lake transitions. These sites were also enriched in the methane-producing mcrA gene and had highest CH4 production rates in the laboratory. In contrast, mineral-rich reaches had significantly lower concentrations and had lesser abundances of mcrA. Strong relationships between CH4 and the physical structure of this aquatic system, along with high spatial variability, suggest that future investigations will benefit from viewing streams as landscapes, as opposed to ecosystems simply embedded in larger terrestrial mosaics. In light of such high spatial variability, we recommend that future workers evaluate stream networks first by using similar spatial tools in order to build effective sampling programs.

Application of Hybrid Geo-Spatially Granular Fragility Curves to Improve Power Outage Predictions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fernandez, Steven J; Allen, Melissa R; Omitaomu, Olufemi A

2014-01-01

Fragility curves depict the relationship between a weather variable (wind speed, gust speed, ice accumulation, precipitation rate) and the observed outages for a targeted infrastructure network. This paper describes an empirical study of the county by county distribution of power outages and one minute weather variables during Hurricane Irene with the objective of comparing 1) as built fragility curves (statistical approach) to engineering as designed (bottom up) fragility curves for skill in forecasting outages during future hurricanes; 2) county specific fragility curves to find examples of significant deviation from average behavior; and 3) the engineering practices of outlier counties tomore » suggest future engineering studies of robustness. Outages in more than 90% of the impacted counties could be anticipated through an average or generic fragility curve. The remaining counties could be identified and handled as exceptions through geographic data sets. The counties with increased or decreased robustness were characterized by terrain more or less susceptible to persistent flooding in areas where above ground poles located their foundations. Land use characteristics of the area served by the power distribution system can suggest trends in the as built power grid vulnerabilities to extreme weather events that would be subjects for site specific studies.« less

Reactivation of Kamb Ice Stream tributaries triggers century-scale reorganization of Siple Coast ice flow in West Antarctica

DOE PAGES

Bougamont, M.; Christoffersen, P.; Price, S. F.; ...

2015-10-21

Ongoing, centennial-scale flow variability within the Ross ice streams of West Antarctica suggests that the present-day positive mass balance in this region may reverse in the future. Here we use a three-dimensional ice sheet model to simulate ice flow in this region over 250 years. The flow responds to changing basal properties, as a subglacial till layer interacts with water transported in an active subglacial hydrological system. We show that a persistent weak bed beneath the tributaries of the dormant Kamb Ice Stream is a source of internal ice flow instability, which reorganizes all ice streams in this region, leadingmore » to a reduced (positive) mass balance within decades and a net loss of ice within two centuries. This hitherto unaccounted for flow variability could raise sea level by 5 mm this century. Furthermore, better constraints on future sea level change from this region will require improved estimates of geothermal heat flux and subglacial water transport.« less

Electricity Consumption in the Industrial Sector of Jordan: Application of Multivariate Linear Regression and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samhouri, M.; Al-Ghandoor, A.; Fouad, R. H.

2009-08-01

In this study two techniques, for modeling electricity consumption of the Jordanian industrial sector, are presented: (i) multivariate linear regression and (ii) neuro-fuzzy models. Electricity consumption is modeled as function of different variables such as number of establishments, number of employees, electricity tariff, prevailing fuel prices, production outputs, capacity utilizations, and structural effects. It was found that industrial production and capacity utilization are the most important variables that have significant effect on future electrical power demand. The results showed that both the multivariate linear regression and neuro-fuzzy models are generally comparable and can be used adequately to simulate industrial electricity consumption. However, comparison that is based on the square root average squared error of data suggests that the neuro-fuzzy model performs slightly better for future prediction of electricity consumption than the multivariate linear regression model. Such results are in full agreement with similar work, using different methods, for other countries.

Reduced interdecadal variability of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation under global warming

PubMed Central

Cheng, Jun; Liu, Zhengyu; Zhang, Shaoqing; Liu, Wei; Dong, Lina; Liu, Peng; Li, Hongli

2016-01-01

Interdecadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC-IV) plays an important role in climate variation and has significant societal impacts. Past climate reconstruction indicates that AMOC-IV has likely undergone significant changes. Despite some previous studies, responses of AMOC-IV to global warming remain unclear, in particular regarding its amplitude and time scale. In this study, we analyze the responses of AMOC-IV under various scenarios of future global warming in multiple models and find that AMOC-IV becomes weaker and shorter with enhanced global warming. From the present climate condition to the strongest future warming scenario, on average, the major period of AMOC-IV is shortened from ∼50 y to ∼20 y, and the amplitude is reduced by ∼60%. These reductions in period and amplitude of AMOC-IV are suggested to be associated with increased oceanic stratification under global warming and, in turn, the speedup of oceanic baroclinic Rossby waves. PMID:26951654

Fragile and Enduring Positive Affect: Implications for Adaptive Aging.

PubMed

Ong, Anthony D; Ram, Nilam

2017-01-01

There is robust evidence linking interindividual differences in positive affect (PA) with adaptive psychological and physical health outcomes. However, recent research has suggested that intraindividual variability or fluctuations in PA states over time may also be an important predictor of individual health outcomes. Here, we report on research that focuses on PA level and various forms of PA dynamics (variability, instability, inertia, and reactivity) in relation to health. PA level refers to the average level of positive feelings. In contrast, PA dynamics refer to short-term changes in PA that unfold over time. We discuss how consideration of both PA level and PA dynamics can provide a framework for reconciling when high PA is conducive or detrimental to health. We conclude that more work on PA dynamics is needed, especially in combination with PA level, and suggest productive questions for future inquiry in this area. © 2016 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Examining the Moderating Role of Family Cohesion on the Relationship Between Witnessed Community Violence and Delinquency in a National Sample of Adolescents

PubMed Central

Barr, Simone C.; Hanson, Rochelle; Begle, Angela M.; Kilpatrick, Dean G.; Saunders, Benjamin; Resnick, Heidi; Amstadter, Ananda

2014-01-01

Witnessed community violence has been linked to a number of internalizing and externalizing problems in adolescents. Guided by Cicchetti and Lynch’s (1993) ecological-transactional model, this study aimed to examine the impact that family-level factors had on negative outcomes associated with witnessed community violence. Using a nationally representative sample, we explored the moderational role of family cohesion in the relationship between witnessing community violence and delinquent behavior while taking demographic variables into account. Results from the investigation suggested that low levels of family cohesion were predictive of delinquency after controlling for race, gender, past delinquency, and direct trauma. In addition, the findings suggested that family cohesion moderated the impact of witnessed community violence on future delinquent behavior. Future directions for research and implications for practice were also discussed. PMID:21920873

Range-expanding pests and pathogens in a warming world.

PubMed

Bebber, Daniel Patrick

2015-01-01

Crop pests and pathogens (CPPs) present a growing threat to food security and ecosystem management. The interactions between plants and their natural enemies are influenced by environmental conditions and thus global warming and climate change could affect CPP ranges and impact. Observations of changing CPP distributions over the twentieth century suggest that growing agricultural production and trade have been most important in disseminating CPPs, but there is some evidence for a latitudinal bias in range shifts that indicates a global warming signal. Species distribution models using climatic variables as drivers suggest that ranges will shift latitudinally in the future. The rapid spread of the Colorado potato beetle across Eurasia illustrates the importance of evolutionary adaptation, host distribution, and migration patterns in affecting the predictions of climate-based species distribution models. Understanding species range shifts in the framework of ecological niche theory may help to direct future research needs.

Future reef decalcification under a business-as-usual CO2 emission scenario

PubMed Central

Dove, Sophie G.; Kline, David I.; Pantos, Olga; Angly, Florent E.; Tyson, Gene W.; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove

2013-01-01

Increasing atmospheric partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) is a major threat to coral reefs, but some argue that the threat is mitigated by factors such as the variability in the response of coral calcification to acidification, differences in bleaching susceptibility, and the potential for rapid adaptation to anthropogenic warming. However the evidence for these mitigating factors tends to involve experimental studies on corals, as opposed to coral reefs, and rarely includes the influence of multiple variables (e.g., temperature and acidification) within regimes that include diurnal and seasonal variability. Here, we demonstrate that the inclusion of all these factors results in the decalcification of patch-reefs under business-as-usual scenarios and reduced, although positive, calcification under reduced-emission scenarios. Primary productivity was found to remain constant across all scenarios, despite significant bleaching and coral mortality under both future scenarios. Daylight calcification decreased and nocturnal decalcification increased sharply from the preindustrial and control conditions to the future scenarios of low (reduced emissions) and high (business-as-usual) increases in pCO2. These changes coincided with deeply negative carbonate budgets, a shift toward smaller carbonate sediments, and an increase in the abundance of sediment microbes under the business-as-usual emission scenario. Experimental coral reefs demonstrated highest net calcification rates and lowest rates of coral mortality under preindustrial conditions, suggesting that reef processes may not have been able to keep pace with the relatively minor environmental changes that have occurred during the last century. Taken together, our results have serious implications for the future of coral reefs under business-as-usual environmental changes projected for the coming decades and century. PMID:24003127

Future reef decalcification under a business-as-usual CO2 emission scenario.

PubMed

Dove, Sophie G; Kline, David I; Pantos, Olga; Angly, Florent E; Tyson, Gene W; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove

2013-09-17

Increasing atmospheric partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) is a major threat to coral reefs, but some argue that the threat is mitigated by factors such as the variability in the response of coral calcification to acidification, differences in bleaching susceptibility, and the potential for rapid adaptation to anthropogenic warming. However the evidence for these mitigating factors tends to involve experimental studies on corals, as opposed to coral reefs, and rarely includes the influence of multiple variables (e.g., temperature and acidification) within regimes that include diurnal and seasonal variability. Here, we demonstrate that the inclusion of all these factors results in the decalcification of patch-reefs under business-as-usual scenarios and reduced, although positive, calcification under reduced-emission scenarios. Primary productivity was found to remain constant across all scenarios, despite significant bleaching and coral mortality under both future scenarios. Daylight calcification decreased and nocturnal decalcification increased sharply from the preindustrial and control conditions to the future scenarios of low (reduced emissions) and high (business-as-usual) increases in pCO2. These changes coincided with deeply negative carbonate budgets, a shift toward smaller carbonate sediments, and an increase in the abundance of sediment microbes under the business-as-usual emission scenario. Experimental coral reefs demonstrated highest net calcification rates and lowest rates of coral mortality under preindustrial conditions, suggesting that reef processes may not have been able to keep pace with the relatively minor environmental changes that have occurred during the last century. Taken together, our results have serious implications for the future of coral reefs under business-as-usual environmental changes projected for the coming decades and century.

RandomForest4Life: a Random Forest for predicting ALS disease progression.

PubMed

Hothorn, Torsten; Jung, Hans H

2014-09-01

We describe a method for predicting disease progression in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) patients. The method was developed as a submission to the DREAM Phil Bowen ALS Prediction Prize4Life Challenge of summer 2012. Based on repeated patient examinations over a three- month period, we used a random forest algorithm to predict future disease progression. The procedure was set up and internally evaluated using data from 1197 ALS patients. External validation by an expert jury was based on undisclosed information of an additional 625 patients; all patient data were obtained from the PRO-ACT database. In terms of prediction accuracy, the approach described here ranked third best. Our interpretation of the prediction model confirmed previous reports suggesting that past disease progression is a strong predictor of future disease progression measured on the ALS functional rating scale (ALSFRS). We also found that larger variability in initial ALSFRS scores is linked to faster future disease progression. The results reported here furthermore suggested that approaches taking the multidimensionality of the ALSFRS into account promise some potential for improved ALS disease prediction.

The Importance of Biotic vs. Abiotic Drivers of Local Plant Community Composition Along Regional Bioclimatic Gradients

PubMed Central

Klanderud, Kari; Vandvik, Vigdis; Goldberg, Deborah

2015-01-01

We assessed if the relative importance of biotic and abiotic factors for plant community composition differs along environmental gradients and between functional groups, and asked which implications this may have in a warmer and wetter future. The study location is a unique grid of sites spanning regional-scale temperature and precipitation gradients in boreal and alpine grasslands in southern Norway. Within each site we sampled vegetation and associated biotic and abiotic factors, and combined broad- and fine-scale ordination analyses to assess the relative explanatory power of these factors for species composition. Although the community responses to biotic and abiotic factors did not consistently change as predicted along the bioclimatic gradients, abiotic variables tended to explain a larger proportion of the variation in species composition towards colder sites, whereas biotic variables explained more towards warmer sites, supporting the stress gradient hypothesis. Significant interactions with precipitation suggest that biotic variables explained more towards wetter climates in the sub alpine and boreal sites, but more towards drier climates in the colder alpine. Thus, we predict that biotic interactions may become more important in alpine and boreal grasslands in a warmer future, although more winter precipitation may counteract this trend in oceanic alpine climates. Our results show that both local and regional scales analyses are needed to disentangle the local vegetation-environment relationships and their regional-scale drivers, and biotic interactions and precipitation must be included when predicting future species assemblages. PMID:26091266

The Importance of Biotic vs. Abiotic Drivers of Local Plant Community Composition Along Regional Bioclimatic Gradients.

PubMed

Klanderud, Kari; Vandvik, Vigdis; Goldberg, Deborah

2015-01-01

We assessed if the relative importance of biotic and abiotic factors for plant community composition differs along environmental gradients and between functional groups, and asked which implications this may have in a warmer and wetter future. The study location is a unique grid of sites spanning regional-scale temperature and precipitation gradients in boreal and alpine grasslands in southern Norway. Within each site we sampled vegetation and associated biotic and abiotic factors, and combined broad- and fine-scale ordination analyses to assess the relative explanatory power of these factors for species composition. Although the community responses to biotic and abiotic factors did not consistently change as predicted along the bioclimatic gradients, abiotic variables tended to explain a larger proportion of the variation in species composition towards colder sites, whereas biotic variables explained more towards warmer sites, supporting the stress gradient hypothesis. Significant interactions with precipitation suggest that biotic variables explained more towards wetter climates in the sub alpine and boreal sites, but more towards drier climates in the colder alpine. Thus, we predict that biotic interactions may become more important in alpine and boreal grasslands in a warmer future, although more winter precipitation may counteract this trend in oceanic alpine climates. Our results show that both local and regional scales analyses are needed to disentangle the local vegetation-environment relationships and their regional-scale drivers, and biotic interactions and precipitation must be included when predicting future species assemblages.

Cerebrospinal Fluid Biomarkers and Reserve Variables as Predictors of Future "Non-Cognitive" Outcomes of Alzheimer's Disease.

PubMed

Ingber, Adam P; Hassenstab, Jason; Fagan, Anne M; Benzinger, Tammie L S; Grant, Elizabeth A; Holtzman, David M; Morris, John C; Roe, Catherine M

2016-01-01

The influence of reserve variables and Alzheimer's disease (AD) biomarkers on cognitive test performance has been fairly well-characterized. However, less is known about the influence of these factors on "non-cognitive" outcomes, including functional abilities and mood. We examined whether cognitive and brain reserve variables mediate how AD biomarker levels in cognitively normal persons predict future changes in function, mood, and neuropsychiatric behavior. Non-cognitive outcomes were examined in 328 individuals 50 years and older enrolled in ongoing studies of aging and dementia at the Knight Alzheimer Disease Research Center (ADRC). All participants were cognitively normal at baseline (Clinical Dementia Rating [CDR] 0), completed cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and structural neuroimaging studies within one year of baseline, and were followed for an average of 4.6 annual visits. Linear mixed effects models explored how cognitive reserve and brain reserve variables mediate the relationships between AD biomarker levels and changes in function, mood, and neuropsychiatric behavior in cognitively normal participants. Education levels did not have a significant effect on predicting non-cognitive decline. However, participants with smaller brain volumes exhibited the worst outcomes on measures of mood, functional abilities, and behavioral disturbance. This effect was most pronounced in individuals who also had abnormal CSF biomarkers. The findings suggest that brain reserve plays a stronger, or earlier, role than cognitive reserve in protecting against non-cognitive impairment in AD.

Centennial-scale Holocene climate variations amplified by Antarctic Ice Sheet discharge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bakker, Pepijn; Clark, Peter U.; Golledge, Nicholas R.; Schmittner, Andreas; Weber, Michael E.

2017-01-01

Proxy-based indicators of past climate change show that current global climate models systematically underestimate Holocene-epoch climate variability on centennial to multi-millennial timescales, with the mismatch increasing for longer periods. Proposed explanations for the discrepancy include ocean-atmosphere coupling that is too weak in models, insufficient energy cascades from smaller to larger spatial and temporal scales, or that global climate models do not consider slow climate feedbacks related to the carbon cycle or interactions between ice sheets and climate. Such interactions, however, are known to have strongly affected centennial- to orbital-scale climate variability during past glaciations, and are likely to be important in future climate change. Here we show that fluctuations in Antarctic Ice Sheet discharge caused by relatively small changes in subsurface ocean temperature can amplify multi-centennial climate variability regionally and globally, suggesting that a dynamic Antarctic Ice Sheet may have driven climate fluctuations during the Holocene. We analysed high-temporal-resolution records of iceberg-rafted debris derived from the Antarctic Ice Sheet, and performed both high-spatial-resolution ice-sheet modelling of the Antarctic Ice Sheet and multi-millennial global climate model simulations. Ice-sheet responses to decadal-scale ocean forcing appear to be less important, possibly indicating that the future response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet will be governed more by long-term anthropogenic warming combined with multi-centennial natural variability than by annual or decadal climate oscillations.

Potential sources of variability in mesocosm experiments on the response of phytoplankton to ocean acidification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moreno de Castro, Maria; Schartau, Markus; Wirtz, Kai

2017-04-01

Mesocosm experiments on phytoplankton dynamics under high CO2 concentrations mimic the response of marine primary producers to future ocean acidification. However, potential acidification effects can be hindered by the high standard deviation typically found in the replicates of the same CO2 treatment level. In experiments with multiple unresolved factors and a sub-optimal number of replicates, post-processing statistical inference tools might fail to detect an effect that is present. We propose that in such cases, data-based model analyses might be suitable tools to unearth potential responses to the treatment and identify the uncertainties that could produce the observed variability. As test cases, we used data from two independent mesocosm experiments. Both experiments showed high standard deviations and, according to statistical inference tools, biomass appeared insensitive to changing CO2 conditions. Conversely, our simulations showed earlier and more intense phytoplankton blooms in modeled replicates at high CO2 concentrations and suggested that uncertainties in average cell size, phytoplankton biomass losses, and initial nutrient concentration potentially outweigh acidification effects by triggering strong variability during the bloom phase. We also estimated the thresholds below which uncertainties do not escalate to high variability. This information might help in designing future mesocosm experiments and interpreting controversial results on the effect of acidification or other pressures on ecosystem functions.

Climate downscaling effects on predictive ecological models: a case study for threatened and endangered vertebrates in the southeastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bucklin, David N.; Watling, James I.; Speroterra, Carolina; Brandt, Laura A.; Mazzotti, Frank J.; Romañach, Stephanie S.

2013-01-01

High-resolution (downscaled) projections of future climate conditions are critical inputs to a wide variety of ecological and socioeconomic models and are created using numerous different approaches. Here, we conduct a sensitivity analysis of spatial predictions from climate envelope models for threatened and endangered vertebrates in the southeastern United States to determine whether two different downscaling approaches (with and without the use of a regional climate model) affect climate envelope model predictions when all other sources of variation are held constant. We found that prediction maps differed spatially between downscaling approaches and that the variation attributable to downscaling technique was comparable to variation between maps generated using different general circulation models (GCMs). Precipitation variables tended to show greater discrepancies between downscaling techniques than temperature variables, and for one GCM, there was evidence that more poorly resolved precipitation variables contributed relatively more to model uncertainty than more well-resolved variables. Our work suggests that ecological modelers requiring high-resolution climate projections should carefully consider the type of downscaling applied to the climate projections prior to their use in predictive ecological modeling. The uncertainty associated with alternative downscaling methods may rival that of other, more widely appreciated sources of variation, such as the general circulation model or emissions scenario with which future climate projections are created.

Reward-related neural activity and structure predict future substance use in dysregulated youth.

PubMed

Bertocci, M A; Bebko, G; Versace, A; Iyengar, S; Bonar, L; Forbes, E E; Almeida, J R C; Perlman, S B; Schirda, C; Travis, M J; Gill, M K; Diwadkar, V A; Sunshine, J L; Holland, S K; Kowatch, R A; Birmaher, B; Axelson, D A; Frazier, T W; Arnold, L E; Fristad, M A; Youngstrom, E A; Horwitz, S M; Findling, R L; Phillips, M L

2017-06-01

Identifying youth who may engage in future substance use could facilitate early identification of substance use disorder vulnerability. We aimed to identify biomarkers that predicted future substance use in psychiatrically un-well youth. LASSO regression for variable selection was used to predict substance use 24.3 months after neuroimaging assessment in 73 behaviorally and emotionally dysregulated youth aged 13.9 (s.d. = 2.0) years, 30 female, from three clinical sites in the Longitudinal Assessment of Manic Symptoms (LAMS) study. Predictor variables included neural activity during a reward task, cortical thickness, and clinical and demographic variables. Future substance use was associated with higher left middle prefrontal cortex activity, lower left ventral anterior insula activity, thicker caudal anterior cingulate cortex, higher depression and lower mania scores, not using antipsychotic medication, more parental stress, older age. This combination of variables explained 60.4% of the variance in future substance use, and accurately classified 83.6%. These variables explained a large proportion of the variance, were useful classifiers of future substance use, and showed the value of combining multiple domains to provide a comprehensive understanding of substance use development. This may be a step toward identifying neural measures that can identify future substance use disorder risk, and act as targets for therapeutic interventions.

Global patterns of declining temperature variability from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rehfeld, Kira; Münch, Thomas; Ho, Sze Ling; Laepple, Thomas

2018-02-01

Changes in climate variability are as important for society to address as are changes in mean climate. Contrasting temperature variability during the Last Glacial Maximum and the Holocene can provide insights into the relationship between the mean state of the climate and its variability. However, although glacial-interglacial changes in variability have been quantified for Greenland, a global view remains elusive. Here we use a network of marine and terrestrial temperature proxies to show that temperature variability decreased globally by a factor of four as the climate warmed by 3-8 degrees Celsius from the Last Glacial Maximum (around 21,000 years ago) to the Holocene epoch (the past 11,500 years). This decrease had a clear zonal pattern, with little change in the tropics (by a factor of only 1.6-2.8) and greater change in the mid-latitudes of both hemispheres (by a factor of 3.3-14). By contrast, Greenland ice-core records show a reduction in temperature variability by a factor of 73, suggesting influences beyond local temperature or a decoupling of atmospheric and global surface temperature variability for Greenland. The overall pattern of reduced variability can be explained by changes in the meridional temperature gradient, a mechanism that points to further decreases in temperature variability in a warmer future.

Global patterns of declining temperature variability from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Holocene.

PubMed

Rehfeld, Kira; Münch, Thomas; Ho, Sze Ling; Laepple, Thomas

2018-02-15

Changes in climate variability are as important for society to address as are changes in mean climate. Contrasting temperature variability during the Last Glacial Maximum and the Holocene can provide insights into the relationship between the mean state of the climate and its variability. However, although glacial-interglacial changes in variability have been quantified for Greenland, a global view remains elusive. Here we use a network of marine and terrestrial temperature proxies to show that temperature variability decreased globally by a factor of four as the climate warmed by 3-8 degrees Celsius from the Last Glacial Maximum (around 21,000 years ago) to the Holocene epoch (the past 11,500 years). This decrease had a clear zonal pattern, with little change in the tropics (by a factor of only 1.6-2.8) and greater change in the mid-latitudes of both hemispheres (by a factor of 3.3-14). By contrast, Greenland ice-core records show a reduction in temperature variability by a factor of 73, suggesting influences beyond local temperature or a decoupling of atmospheric and global surface temperature variability for Greenland. The overall pattern of reduced variability can be explained by changes in the meridional temperature gradient, a mechanism that points to further decreases in temperature variability in a warmer future.

Multifactor valuation models of energy futures and options on futures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bertus, Mark J.

The intent of this dissertation is to investigate continuous time pricing models for commodity derivative contracts that consider mean reversion. The motivation for pricing commodity futures and option on futures contracts leads to improved practical risk management techniques in markets where uncertainty is increasing. In the dissertation closed-form solutions to mean reverting one-factor, two-factor, three-factor Brownian motions are developed for futures contracts. These solutions are obtained through risk neutral pricing methods that yield tractable expressions for futures prices, which are linear in the state variables, hence making them attractive for estimation. These functions, however, are expressed in terms of latent variables (i.e. spot prices, convenience yield) which complicate the estimation of the futures pricing equation. To address this complication a discussion on Dynamic factor analysis is given. This procedure documents latent variables using a Kalman filter and illustrations show how this technique may be used for the analysis. In addition, to the futures contracts closed form solutions for two option models are obtained. Solutions to the one- and two-factor models are tailored solutions of the Black-Scholes pricing model. Furthermore, since these contracts are written on the futures contracts, they too are influenced by the same underlying parameters of the state variables used to price the futures contracts. To conclude, the analysis finishes with an investigation of commodity futures options that incorporate random discrete jumps.

Cognitive and contextual variables in sexual partner and relationship perception.

PubMed

Alvarez, Maria-João; Garcia-Marques, Leonel

2011-04-01

This study examined the effects of contextual and cognitive variables for sexual protection on perceived social relationship factors. University students (108 women and 108 men) read script-based narratives on sexual encounters in which six variables were manipulated in two independent analyses. In the first analysis, four variables were evaluated: relational context (stable, casual), condom use (yes, no), script terminus (beginning, middle or end), and the rater's sex. The dependent variables were interpersonal perception of one of the characters of the narrative, and expectations regarding characteristics and future of the relationship. In the second analysis, two other factors were manipulated only in the "yes" condom conditions: communication strategy (verbal, non-verbal) and condom proponent gender. Our findings corroborated other studies where condom use was viewed as unromantic with less positive characteristics for relationships. Condom proponents, especially male, were perceived as less romantic, particularly when proposing a condom non-verbally at the beginning of the encounter. However, the controlled variables enabled us to propose ways of associating condom use with positive expectations towards the proponent and the relationship itself. Romanticism, expectation of sexual intercourse, emotional proximity, and expectations of condom use in encounters where a condom was proposed increased when suggested by a woman, postponed to the end of the encounter, and verbally mentioned. We encourage women to take the lead in suggesting condom use, thus empowering them since they do not have to wait for the male to make the first move.

Predicting sun protection behaviors using protection motivation variables.

PubMed

Ch'ng, Joanne W M; Glendon, A Ian

2014-04-01

Protection motivation theory components were used to predict sun protection behaviors (SPBs) using four outcome measures: typical reported behaviors, previous reported behaviors, current sunscreen use as determined by interview, and current observed behaviors (clothing worn) to control for common method bias. Sampled from two SE Queensland public beaches during summer, 199 participants aged 18-29 years completed a questionnaire measuring perceived severity, perceived vulnerability, response efficacy, response costs, and protection motivation (PM). Personal perceived risk (similar to threat appraisal) and response likelihood (similar to coping appraisal) were derived from their respective PM components. Protection motivation predicted all four SPB criterion variables. Personal perceived risk and response likelihood predicted protection motivation. Protection motivation completely mediated the effect of response likelihood on all four criterion variables. Alternative models are considered. Strengths and limitations of the study are outlined and suggestions made for future research.

Variability in reef connectivity in the Coral Triangle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, D. M.; Kleypas, J. A.; Castruccio, F. S.; Watson, J. R.; Curchitser, E. N.

2015-12-01

The Coral Triangle (CT) is not only the global center of marine biodiversity, it also supports the livelihoods of millions of people. Unfortunately, it is also considered the most threatened of all reef regions, with rising temperature and coral bleaching already taking a toll. Reproductive connectivity between reefs plays a critical role in the reef's capacity to recover after such disturbances. Thus, oceanographic modeling efforts to understand patterns of reef connectivity are essential to the effective design of a network of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) to conserve marine ecosystems in the Coral Triangle. Here, we combine a Regional Ocean Modeling System developed for the Coral Triangle (CT-ROMS) with a Lagrangian particle tracking tool (TRACMASS) to investigate the probability of coral larval transport between reefs. A 47-year hindcast simulation (1960-2006) was used to investigate the variability in larval transport of a broadcasting coral following mass spawning events in April and September. Potential connectivity between reefs was highly variable and stochastic from year to year, emphasizing the importance of decadal or longer simulations in identifying connectivity patterns, key source and sink regions, and thus marine management targets for MPAs. The influence of temperature on realized connectivity (future work) may add further uncertainty to year-to-year patterns of connectivity between reefs. Nonetheless, the potential connectivity results we present here suggest that although reefs in this region are primarily self-seeded, rare long-distance dispersal may promote recovery and genetic exchange between reefs in the region. The spatial pattern of "subpopulations" based solely on the physical drivers of connectivity between reefs closely match regional patterns of biodiversity, suggesting that physical barriers to larval dispersal may be a key driver of reef biodiversity. Finally, 21st Century simulations driven by the Community Earth System Model (CESM) suggest that these major barriers to larval dispersal persist into the future under 8.5 W/m2 of climate forcing, despite some regional changes in connectivity between reefs.

Regional reduction in paleogroundwater discharge and rainfall in the Late Holocene Yucatan Peninsula reconstructed from trace metals in benthic foraminifera

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Broach, K. H.; Chapman, B. L.; Paytan, A.; Street, J.

2017-12-01

As climate change progresses, droughts are predicted to become more common in regions dominated by seasonal precipitation, a problem compounded where precipitation provides significant freshwater resources. The Yucatan Peninsula relies on rain-recharged groundwater for potable water, and regional development due to tourism will further strain supply. Historical and geochemical evidence suggest extensive droughts harmed Mayan Civilization and may again impact the Yucatan in the near future, but proxies around the Yucatan and Caribbean region are complicated by variability and even opposing interpretations. An integrated rainfall signal is needed to smooth variability and separate local aberrations from long-term regional trends that can be used for risk assessment. Here we present a 5,000 year record of rainfall sourced from a broad swath of the peninsula and recorded as trace metal ratios in the foram Ammonia parkinsoniana. Rainwater percolation across the western peninsula forms a groundwater lens that discharges as brackish springs in our field site Celestun Lagoon resulting in trace metal gradients (Li, B, Sr, Ba, Nd) along the lagoon that oscillate with discharge. Sr/Ca and Ba/Ca ratios in the forams suggest a long-term decrease in spring water discharge for the western Yucatan during the last 2,500 years with notable drops coinciding with known droughts (e.g. 800-950 CE) and more variability on a regional scale to 5,000 years. B/Ca ratios appear to depend on proximity to springs and may respond to low-pH discharge water while Nd/Ca ratios suggest sporadic incursions of seawater into the lagoon, possibly related to severely reduced spring water discharge or large hurricane events. We interpret these results to mean that periods of decreased rainfall broadly affect the western peninsula which may pose problems for large population centers like Merida. Future work will focus on periodicity of such rainfall changes and impact on the ecological environment of Celestun Lagoon.

Vulnerability of Breeding Waterbirds to Climate Change in the Prairie Pothole Region, U.S.A

PubMed Central

Steen, Valerie; Skagen, Susan K.; Noon, Barry R.

2014-01-01

The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of the north-central U.S. and south-central Canada contains millions of small prairie wetlands that provide critical habitat to many migrating and breeding waterbirds. Due to their small size and the relatively dry climate of the region, these wetlands are considered at high risk for negative climate change effects as temperatures increase. To estimate the potential impacts of climate change on breeding waterbirds, we predicted current and future distributions of species common in the PPR using species distribution models (SDMs). We created regional-scale SDMs for the U.S. PPR using Breeding Bird Survey occurrence records for 1971–2011 and wetland, upland, and climate variables. For each species, we predicted current distribution based on climate records for 1981–2000 and projected future distributions to climate scenarios for 2040–2049. Species were projected to, on average, lose almost half their current habitat (-46%). However, individual species projections varied widely, from +8% (Upland Sandpiper) to -100% (Wilson's Snipe). Variable importance ranks indicated that land cover (wetland and upland) variables were generally more important than climate variables in predicting species distributions. However, climate variables were relatively more important during a drought period. Projected distributions of species responses to climate change contracted within current areas of distribution rather than shifting. Given the large variation in species-level impacts, we suggest that climate change mitigation efforts focus on species projected to be the most vulnerable by enacting targeted wetland management, easement acquisition, and restoration efforts. PMID:24927165

Vulnerability of breeding waterbirds to climate change in the Prairie Pothole Region, U.S.A.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Steen, Valerie; Skagen, Susan K.; Noon, Barry R.

2014-01-01

The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of the north-central U.S. and south-central Canada contains millions of small prairie wetlands that provide critical habitat to many migrating and breeding waterbirds. Due to their small size and the relatively dry climate of the region, these wetlands are considered at high risk for negative climate change effects as temperatures increase. To estimate the potential impacts of climate change on breeding waterbirds, we predicted current and future distributions of species common in the PPR using species distribution models (SDMs). We created regional-scale SDMs for the U.S. PPR using Breeding Bird Survey occurrence records for 1971–2011 and wetland, upland, and climate variables. For each species, we predicted current distribution based on climate records for 1981–2000 and projected future distributions to climate scenarios for 2040–2049. Species were projected to, on average, lose almost half their current habitat (-46%). However, individual species projections varied widely, from +8% (Upland Sandpiper) to -100% (Wilson's Snipe). Variable importance ranks indicated that land cover (wetland and upland) variables were generally more important than climate variables in predicting species distributions. However, climate variables were relatively more important during a drought period. Projected distributions of species responses to climate change contracted within current areas of distribution rather than shifting. Given the large variation in species-level impacts, we suggest that climate change mitigation efforts focus on species projected to be the most vulnerable by enacting targeted wetland management, easement acquisition, and restoration efforts.

Spatial heterogeneity of within-stream methane concentrations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crawford, John T.; Loken, Luke C.; West, William E.; Crary, Benjamin; Spawn, Seth A.; Gubbins, Nicholas; Jones, Stuart E.; Striegl, Robert G.; Stanley, Emily H.

2017-01-01

Streams, rivers, and other freshwater features may be significant sources of CH4 to the atmosphere. However, high spatial and temporal variabilities hinder our ability to understand the underlying processes of CH4 production and delivery to streams and also challenge the use of scaling approaches across large areas. We studied a stream having high geomorphic variability to assess the underlying scale of CH4 spatial variability and to examine whether the physical structure of a stream can explain the variation in surface CH4. A combination of high-resolution CH4 mapping, a survey of groundwater CH4 concentrations, quantitative analysis of methanogen DNA, and sediment CH4 production potentials illustrates the spatial and geomorphic controls on CH4 emissions to the atmosphere. We observed significant spatial clustering with high CH4 concentrations in organic-rich stream reaches and lake transitions. These sites were also enriched in the methane-producing mcrA gene and had highest CH4 production rates in the laboratory. In contrast, mineral-rich reaches had significantly lower concentrations and had lesser abundances of mcrA. Strong relationships between CH4and the physical structure of this aquatic system, along with high spatial variability, suggest that future investigations will benefit from viewing streams as landscapes, as opposed to ecosystems simply embedded in larger terrestrial mosaics. In light of such high spatial variability, we recommend that future workers evaluate stream networks first by using similar spatial tools in order to build effective sampling programs.

Robust signals of future projections of Indian summer monsoon rainfall by IPCC AR5 climate models: Role of seasonal cycle and interannual variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jayasankar, C. B.; Surendran, Sajani; Rajendran, Kavirajan

2015-05-01

Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (Fifth Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) coupled global climate model Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 simulations are analyzed to derive robust signals of projected changes in Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) and its variability. Models project clear future temperature increase but diverse changes in ISMR with substantial intermodel spread. Objective measures of interannual variability (IAV) yields nearly equal chance for future increase or decrease. This leads to discrepancy in quantifying changes in ISMR and variability. However, based primarily on the physical association between mean changes in ISMR and its IAV, and objective methods such as k-means clustering with Dunn's validity index, mean seasonal cycle, and reliability ensemble averaging, projections fall into distinct groups. Physically consistent groups of models with the highest reliability project future reduction in the frequency of light rainfall but increase in high to extreme rainfall and thereby future increase in ISMR by 0.74 ± 0.36 mm d-1, along with increased future IAV. These robust estimates of future changes are important for useful impact assessments.

TEDS-M 2008 User Guide for the International Database. Supplement 3: Variables Derived from the Educator and Future Teacher Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brese, Falk, Ed.

2012-01-01

This supplement contains documentation on all the derived variables contained in the TEDS-M educator and future teacher data files. These derived variables were used to report data in the TEDS-M international reports. The variables that constitute the scales and indices are made available as part of the TEDS-M International Database to be used in…

Footprints in the Sand: Personal, Psychological, and Relational Profiles of Religious, Spiritual, and Atheist LGB Individuals.

PubMed

Foster, Aasha B; Brewster, Melanie E; Velez, Brandon L; Eklund, Austin; Keum, Brian T

2017-01-01

The present study offers a comparison of the demographic features and lived experiences of lesbian, gay, and bisexual (LGB) individuals with religious, spiritual, or atheist (R/S/A) belief systems. In this sample of 212 participants, the relationship of participants' R/S/A beliefs to personal variables (e.g., age, gender, race), mental health variables (e.g., life satisfaction, psychological distress, internalized heterosexism, self-esteem), and relational variables (e.g., outness, connection to LGBTQ communities) were assessed. Correlational analyses indicated that level of R/S/A belief was unrelated to self-esteem, life satisfaction, or psychological distress; however, greater religious belief was correlated positively and significantly with internalized heterosexism and outness as LGB. To test the interactions of R/S/A beliefs and categorical variables of interest (e.g., race), log-linear analyses with follow-up chi-square tests were conducted. Findings suggested more similarities than differences for LGB people across R/S/A systems of belief. Limitations and implications for future research are discussed.

Climate variability and extremes, interacting with nitrogen storage, amplify eutrophication risk

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lee, Minjin; Shevliakova, Elena; Malyshev, Sergey; Milly, P.C.D.; Jaffe, Peter R.

2016-01-01

Despite 30 years of basin-wide nutrient-reduction efforts, severe hypoxia continues to be observed in the Chesapeake Bay. Here we demonstrate the critical influence of climate variability, interacting with accumulated nitrogen (N) over multidecades, on Susquehanna River dissolved nitrogen (DN) loads, known precursors of the hypoxia in the Bay. We used the process model LM3-TAN (Terrestrial and Aquatic Nitrogen), which is capable of capturing both seasonal and decadal-to-century changes in vegetation-soil-river N storage, and produced nine scenarios of DN-load distributions under different short-term scenarios of climate variability and extremes. We illustrate that after 1 to 3 yearlong dry spells, the likelihood of exceeding a threshold DN load (56 kt yr−1) increases by 40 to 65% due to flushing of N accumulated throughout the dry spells and altered microbial processes. Our analyses suggest that possible future increases in climate variability/extremes—specifically, high precipitation occurring after multiyear dry spells—could likely lead to high DN-load anomalies and hypoxia.

The continuum of hydroclimate variability in western North America during the last millennium

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ault, Toby R.; Cole, Julia E.; Overpeck, Jonathan T.; Pederson, Gregory T.; St. George, Scott; Otto-Bliesner, Bette; Woodhouse, Connie A.; Deser, Clara

2013-01-01

The distribution of climatic variance across the frequency spectrum has substantial importance for anticipating how climate will evolve in the future. Here we estimate power spectra and power laws (ß) from instrumental, proxy, and climate model data to characterize the hydroclimate continuum in western North America (WNA). We test the significance of our estimates of spectral densities and ß against the null hypothesis that they reflect solely the effects of local (non-climate) sources of autocorrelation at the monthly timescale. Although tree-ring based hydroclimate reconstructions are generally consistent with this null hypothesis, values of ß calculated from long-moisture sensitive chronologies (as opposed to reconstructions), and other types of hydroclimate proxies, exceed null expectations. We therefore argue that there is more low-frequency variability in hydroclimate than monthly autocorrelation alone can generate. Coupled model results archived as part of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) are consistent with the null hypothesis and appear unable to generate variance in hydroclimate commensurate with paleoclimate records. Consequently, at decadal to multidecadal timescales there is more variability in instrumental and proxy data than in the models, suggesting that the risk of prolonged droughts under climate change may be underestimated by CMIP5 simulations of the future.

A demographic approach to study effects of climate change in desert plants.

PubMed

Salguero-Gómez, Roberto; Siewert, Wolfgang; Casper, Brenda B; Tielbörger, Katja

2012-11-19

Desert species respond strongly to infrequent, intense pulses of precipitation. Consequently, indigenous flora has developed a rich repertoire of life-history strategies to deal with fluctuations in resource availability. Examinations of how future climate change will affect the biota often forecast negative impacts, but these-usually correlative-approaches overlook precipitation variation because they are based on averages. Here, we provide an overview of how variable precipitation affects perennial and annual desert plants, and then implement an innovative, mechanistic approach to examine the effects of precipitation on populations of two desert plant species. This approach couples robust climatic projections, including variable precipitation, with stochastic, stage-structured models constructed from long-term demographic datasets of the short-lived Cryptantha flava in the Colorado Plateau Desert (USA) and the annual Carrichtera annua in the Negev Desert (Israel). Our results highlight these populations' potential to buffer future stochastic precipitation. Population growth rates in both species increased under future conditions: wetter, longer growing seasons for Cryptantha and drier years for Carrichtera. We determined that such changes are primarily due to survival and size changes for Cryptantha and the role of seed bank for Carrichtera. Our work suggests that desert plants, and thus the resources they provide, might be more resilient to climate change than previously thought.

A demographic approach to study effects of climate change in desert plants

PubMed Central

Salguero-Gómez, Roberto; Siewert, Wolfgang; Casper, Brenda B.; Tielbörger, Katja

2012-01-01

Desert species respond strongly to infrequent, intense pulses of precipitation. Consequently, indigenous flora has developed a rich repertoire of life-history strategies to deal with fluctuations in resource availability. Examinations of how future climate change will affect the biota often forecast negative impacts, but these—usually correlative—approaches overlook precipitation variation because they are based on averages. Here, we provide an overview of how variable precipitation affects perennial and annual desert plants, and then implement an innovative, mechanistic approach to examine the effects of precipitation on populations of two desert plant species. This approach couples robust climatic projections, including variable precipitation, with stochastic, stage-structured models constructed from long-term demographic datasets of the short-lived Cryptantha flava in the Colorado Plateau Desert (USA) and the annual Carrichtera annua in the Negev Desert (Israel). Our results highlight these populations' potential to buffer future stochastic precipitation. Population growth rates in both species increased under future conditions: wetter, longer growing seasons for Cryptantha and drier years for Carrichtera. We determined that such changes are primarily due to survival and size changes for Cryptantha and the role of seed bank for Carrichtera. Our work suggests that desert plants, and thus the resources they provide, might be more resilient to climate change than previously thought. PMID:23045708

Changes in Hydrological Extremes and its Relation to Climate Variability in Mountainous Watershed: A Case Study from Gandaki River Basin, Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shrestha, N. S.; Dahal, P.

2016-12-01

Changes in the hydrological extreme are expected due to climate variability and are needed to assess at local and regional scales since these changes are not uniform over the globe. This study analyses the changes in intensity, frequency and persistence hydrological extreme in Gandaki River Basin (GRB) Nepal over past and future and its relation to climate variability. Hydrological data of 12 different hydrological stations covering all the sub basins of Gandaki River Basin were analyzed. At least 1 hydrological station in each sub basin to the maximum of 3 was taken into consideration for this study. Results show that hydrological extreme have increased in intensity, frequency and persistence over recent year and are predicted to increase in future (2030-2060). The time-series analysis revealed an increase in the magnitude, frequency and duration of flood and drought. The instantaneous maximum flow, flood events and duration of flood events are found to have increasing trend. The minimum discharge was observed to be decreasing which entails that the water availability in the driest time is decreasing. Trend analysis of seasonal flow revealed an increase in monsoon flows and decreasing in post monsoon. Changes in climate variability over the same period shows higher anomalies in both temperature and precipitation in recent decades (1990s and 2000s) compared to the baseline period (1970-2000). Model suggests an increasing trend in annual flows with the increase more pronounced in 2060s. Significant increase in extreme flows and subsequent decrease in dependable flows suggest increase in frequency of isolated extreme flows followed by prolonged dry spells. Data also showed that the mean temperature will be increasing from 1.9 0C to 3.1 0C and precipitation will be changing by -8% to +12% in 2031-2060 compared to the baseline period. For long-term planning and management of water resources, current trend and future change in the pattern of water availability should be analysed well in advance. Climate change with intensifying extreme events will likely have serious consequences on the hydrological changes. Therefore, this study would be useful in understanding how the hydrological regime has been changing with climate change in mountainous watershed.

Genome-Wide Analysis of Yield in Europe: Allelic Effects Vary with Drought and Heat Scenarios1[OPEN

PubMed Central

Millet, Emilie J.; Welcker, Claude; Kruijer, Willem; Negro, Sandra; Coupel-Ledru, Aude; Laborde, Jacques; Bauland, Cyril; Praud, Sebastien; Presterl, Thomas; Usadel, Björn; Charcosset, Alain; Van Eeuwijk, Fred; Tardieu, François

2016-01-01

Assessing the genetic variability of plant performance under heat and drought scenarios can contribute to reduce the negative effects of climate change. We propose here an approach that consisted of (1) clustering time courses of environmental variables simulated by a crop model in current (35 years × 55 sites) and future conditions into six scenarios of temperature and water deficit as experienced by maize (Zea mays L.) plants; (2) performing 29 field experiments in contrasting conditions across Europe with 244 maize hybrids; (3) assigning individual experiments to scenarios based on environmental conditions as measured in each field experiment; frequencies of temperature scenarios in our experiments corresponded to future heat scenarios (+5°C); (4) analyzing the genetic variation of plant performance for each environmental scenario. Forty-eight quantitative trait loci (QTLs) of yield were identified by association genetics using a multi-environment multi-locus model. Eight and twelve QTLs were associated to tolerances to heat and drought stresses because they were specific to hot and dry scenarios, respectively, with low or even negative allelic effects in favorable scenarios. Twenty-four QTLs improved yield in favorable conditions but showed nonsignificant effects under stress; they were therefore associated with higher sensitivity. Our approach showed a pattern of QTL effects expressed as functions of environmental variables and scenarios, allowing us to suggest hypotheses for mechanisms and candidate genes underlying each QTL. It can be used for assessing the performance of genotypes and the contribution of genomic regions under current and future stress situations and to accelerate breeding for drought-prone environments. PMID:27436830

Using the NANA toolkit at home to predict older adults' future depression.

PubMed

Andrews, J A; Harrison, R F; Brown, L J E; MacLean, L M; Hwang, F; Smith, T; Williams, E A; Timon, C; Adlam, T; Khadra, H; Astell, A J

2017-04-15

Depression is currently underdiagnosed among older adults. As part of the Novel Assessment of Nutrition and Aging (NANA) validation study, 40 older adults self-reported their mood using a touchscreen computer over three, one-week periods. Here, we demonstrate the potential of these data to predict future depression status. We analysed data from the NANA validation study using a machine learning approach. We applied the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator with a logistic model to averages of six measures of mood, with depression status according to the Geriatric Depression Scale 10 weeks later as the outcome variable. We tested multiple values of the selection parameter in order to produce a model with low deviance. We used a cross-validation framework to avoid overspecialisation, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis to determine the quality of the fitted model. The model we report contained coefficients for two variables: sadness and tiredness, as well as a constant. The cross-validated area under the ROC curve for this model was 0.88 (CI: 0.69-0.97). While results are based on a small sample, the methodology for the selection of variables appears suitable for the problem at hand, suggesting promise for a wider study and ultimate deployment with older adults at increased risk of depression. We have identified self-reported scales of sadness and tiredness as sensitive measures which have the potential to predict future depression status in older adults, partially addressing the problem of underdiagnosis. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The predicted influence of climate change on lesser prairie-chicken reproductive parameters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grisham, Blake A.; Boal, Clint W.; Haukos, David A.; Davis, D.; Boydston, Kathy K.; Dixon, Charles; Heck, Willard R.

2013-01-01

The Southern High Plains is anticipated to experience significant changes in temperature and precipitation due to climate change. These changes may influence the lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) in positive or negative ways. We assessed the potential changes in clutch size, incubation start date, and nest survival for lesser prairie-chickens for the years 2050 and 2080 based on modeled predictions of climate change and reproductive data for lesser prairie-chickens from 2001-2011 on the Southern High Plains of Texas and New Mexico. We developed 9 a priori models to assess the relationship between reproductive parameters and biologically relevant weather conditions. We selected weather variable(s) with the most model support and then obtained future predicted values from climatewizard.org. We conducted 1,000 simulations using each reproductive parameter's linear equation obtained from regression calculations, and the future predicted value for each weather variable to predict future reproductive parameter values for lesser prairie-chickens. There was a high degree of model uncertainty for each reproductive value. Winter temperature had the greatest effect size for all three parameters, suggesting a negative relationship between above-average winter temperature and reproductive output. The above-average winter temperatures are correlated to La Nina events, which negatively affect lesser prairie-chickens through resulting drought conditions. By 2050 and 2080, nest survival was predicted to be below levels considered viable for population persistence; however, our assessment did not consider annual survival of adults, chick survival, or the positive benefit of habitat management and conservation, which may ultimately offset the potentially negative effect of drought on nest survival.

The predicted influence of climate change on lesser prairie-chicken reproductive parameters.

PubMed

Grisham, Blake A; Boal, Clint W; Haukos, David A; Davis, Dawn M; Boydston, Kathy K; Dixon, Charles; Heck, Willard R

2013-01-01

The Southern High Plains is anticipated to experience significant changes in temperature and precipitation due to climate change. These changes may influence the lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) in positive or negative ways. We assessed the potential changes in clutch size, incubation start date, and nest survival for lesser prairie-chickens for the years 2050 and 2080 based on modeled predictions of climate change and reproductive data for lesser prairie-chickens from 2001-2011 on the Southern High Plains of Texas and New Mexico. We developed 9 a priori models to assess the relationship between reproductive parameters and biologically relevant weather conditions. We selected weather variable(s) with the most model support and then obtained future predicted values from climatewizard.org. We conducted 1,000 simulations using each reproductive parameter's linear equation obtained from regression calculations, and the future predicted value for each weather variable to predict future reproductive parameter values for lesser prairie-chickens. There was a high degree of model uncertainty for each reproductive value. Winter temperature had the greatest effect size for all three parameters, suggesting a negative relationship between above-average winter temperature and reproductive output. The above-average winter temperatures are correlated to La Niña events, which negatively affect lesser prairie-chickens through resulting drought conditions. By 2050 and 2080, nest survival was predicted to be below levels considered viable for population persistence; however, our assessment did not consider annual survival of adults, chick survival, or the positive benefit of habitat management and conservation, which may ultimately offset the potentially negative effect of drought on nest survival.

School burnout: increased sympathetic vasomotor tone and attenuated ambulatory diurnal blood pressure variability in young adult women.

PubMed

May, Ross W; Sanchez-Gonzalez, Marcos A; Fincham, Frank D

2015-01-01

Two studies examined autonomic and cardiovascular functioning that may link school burnout to cardiovascular risk factors in young healthy adult females. Study 1 (N = 136) investigated whether school burnout was related to resting values of blood pressure (BP) and blood pressure variability (BPV) through laboratory beat-to-beat BP assessment. Study 2 (N = 94) examined the link between school burnout and diurnal BPV through ambulatory BP monitoring. Controlling for anxiety and depressive symptomatology, school burnout demonstrated strong positive relationships with indices of cardiac sympathovagal tone, sympathetic vasomotor tone, inefficient myocardial oxygen consumption, increased 24-h ambulatory heart rate and BP, blunted BP diurnal variability, and increased arterial stiffness. These studies establish cardiovascular biomarkers of school burnout and suggest that even in a seemingly healthy sample school burnout may predispose females to increased cardiovascular risk. Several future lines of research are outlined.

Keeping an Eye on Noisy Movements: On Different Approaches to Perceptual-Motor Skill Research and Training.

PubMed

Dicks, Matt; Button, Chris; Davids, Keith; Chow, Jia Yi; van der Kamp, John

2017-04-01

Contemporary theorizing on the complementary nature of perception and action in expert performance has led to different emphases in the study of movement coordination and gaze behavior. On the one hand, coordination research has examined the role of variability in movement control, evidencing that variability facilitates individualized adaptations during both learning and performance. On the other hand, and at odds with this principle, the majority of gaze behavior studies have tended to average data over participants and trials, proposing the importance of universal 'optimal' gaze patterns in a given task, for all performers, irrespective of stage of learning. In this article, we discuss new lines of inquiry with the aim of reconciling these two distinct approaches. We consider the role of inter- and intra-individual variability in gaze behaviors and suggest directions for future research.

Social Network Analysis for Assessing College-Aged Adults' Health: A Systematic Review.

PubMed

Patterson, Megan S; Go Odson, Patricia

2018-04-13

Social network analysis (SNA) is a useful, emerging method for studying health. College students are especially prone to social influence when it comes to health. This review aimed to identify network variables related to college student health and determine how SNA was used in the literature. A systematic review of relevant literature was conducted in October 2015. Studies employing egocentric or whole network analysis to study college student health were included. We used Garrard's Matrix Method to extract data from reviewed articles (n = 15). Drinking, smoking, aggression, homesickness, and stress were predicted by network variables in the reviewed literature. Methodological inconsistencies concerning boundary specification, data collection, nomination limits, and statistical analyses were revealed across studies. Results show the consistent relationship between network variables and college health outcomes, justifying further use of SNA to research college health. Suggestions and considerations for future use of SNA are provided.

Growth and variability in health plan premiums in the individual insurance market before the Affordable Care Act.

PubMed

Gruber, Jonathan

2014-06-01

Before we can evaluate the impact of the Affordable Care Act on health insurance premiums in the individual market, it is critical to understand the pricing trends of these premiums before the implementation of the law. Using rates of increase in the individual insurance market collected from state regulators, this issue brief documents trends in premium growth in the pre-ACA period. From 2008 to 2010, premiums grew by 10 percent or more per year. This growth was also highly variable across states, and even more variable across insurance plans within states. The study suggests that evaluating trends in premiums requires looking across a broad array of states and plans, and that policymakers must examine how present and future changes in premium rates compare with the more than 10 percent per year premium increases in the years preceding health reform.

More than just the mean: moving to a dynamic view of performance-based compensation.

PubMed

Barnes, Christopher M; Reb, Jochen; Ang, Dionysius

2012-05-01

Compensation decisions have important consequences for employees and organizations and affect factors such as retention, motivation, and recruitment. Past research has primarily focused on mean performance as a predictor of compensation, promoting the implicit assumption that alternative aspects of dynamic performance are not relevant. To address this gap in the literature, we examined the influence of dynamic performance characteristics on compensation decisions in the National Basketball Association (NBA). We predicted that, in addition to performance mean, performance trend and variability would also affect compensation decisions. Results revealed that performance mean and trend, but not variability, were significantly and positively related to changes in compensation levels of NBA players. Moreover, trend (but not mean or variability) predicted compensation when controlling for future performance, suggesting that organizations overweighted trend in their compensation decisions. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved).

Using a cross section to train veterinary students to visualize anatomical structures in three dimensions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Provo, Judy; Lamar, Carlton; Newby, Timothy

2002-01-01

A cross section was used to enhance three-dimensional knowledge of anatomy of the canine head. All veterinary students in two successive classes (n = 124) dissected the head; experimental groups also identified structures on a cross section of the head. A test assessing spatial knowledge of the head generated 10 dependent variables from two administrations. The test had content validity and statistically significant interrater and test-retest reliability. A live-dog examination generated one additional dependent variable. Analysis of covariance controlling for performance on course examinations and quizzes revealed no treatment effect. Including spatial skill as a third covariate revealed a statistically significant effect of spatial skill on three dependent variables. Men initially had greater spatial skill than women, but spatial skills were equal after 8 months. A qualitative analysis showed the positive impact of this experience on participants. Suggestions for improvement and future research are discussed.

Improving niche projections of plant species under climate change: Silene acaulis on the British Isles as a case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferrarini, Alessandro; Alsafran, Mohammed H. S. A.; Dai, Junhu; Alatalo, Juha M.

2018-04-01

Empirical works to assist in choosing climatically relevant variables in the attempt to predict climate change impacts on plant species are limited. Further uncertainties arise in choice of an appropriate niche model. In this study we devised and tested a sharp methodological framework, based on stringent variable ranking and filtering and flexible model selection, to minimize uncertainty in both niche modelling and successive projection of plant species distributions. We used our approach to develop an accurate, parsimonious model of Silene acaulis (L.) presence/absence on the British Isles and to project its presence/absence under climate change. The approach suggests the importance of (a) defining a reduced set of climate variables, actually relevant to species presence/absence, from an extensive list of climate predictors, and (b) considering climate extremes instead of, or together with, climate averages in projections of plant species presence/absence under future climate scenarios. Our methodological approach reduced the number of relevant climate predictors by 95.23% (from 84 to only 4), while simultaneously achieving high cross-validated accuracy (97.84%) confirming enhanced model performance. Projections produced under different climate scenarios suggest that S. acaulis will likely face climate-driven fast decline in suitable areas on the British Isles, and that upward and northward shifts to occupy new climatically suitable areas are improbable in the future. Our results also imply that conservation measures for S. acaulis based upon assisted colonization are unlikely to succeed on the British Isles due to the absence of climatically suitable habitat, so different conservation actions (seed banks and/or botanical gardens) are needed.

Cerebrospinal Fluid Biomarkers and Reserve Variables as Predictors of Future “Non-Cognitive” Outcomes of Alzheimer’s Disease

PubMed Central

Ingber, Adam P.; Hassenstab, Jason; Fagan, Anne M.; Benzinger, Tammie L.S.; Grant, Elizabeth A.; Holtzman, David M.; Morris, John C.; Roe, Catherine M.

2016-01-01

Background The influence of reserve variables and Alzheimer’s disease (AD) biomarkers on cognitive test performance has been fairly well-characterized. However, less is known about the influence of these factors on “non-cognitive” outcomes, including functional abilities and mood. Objective We examined whether cognitive and brain reserve variables mediate how AD biomarker levels in cognitively normal persons predict future changes in function, mood, and neuropsychiatric behavior. Methods Non-cognitive outcomes were examined in 328 individuals 50 years and older enrolled in ongoing studies of aging and dementia at the Knight Alzheimer Disease Research Center (ADRC). All participants were cognitively normal at baseline (Clinical Dementia Rating [CDR] 0), completed cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and structural neuroimaging studies within one year of baseline, and were followed for an average of 4.6 annual visits. Linear mixed effects models explored how cognitive reserve and brain reserve variables mediate the relationships between AD biomarker levels and changes in function, mood, and neuropsychiatric behavior in cognitively normal participants. Results Education levels did not have a significant effect on predicting non-cognitive decline. However, participants with smaller brain volumes exhibited the worst outcomes on measures of mood, functional abilities, and behavioral disturbance. This effect was most pronounced in individuals who also had abnormal CSF biomarkers. Conclusions The findings suggest that brain reserve plays a stronger, or earlier, role than cognitive reserve in protecting against non-cognitive impairment in AD. PMID:27104893

Population-Level Transcriptomic Responses of the Southern Ocean Salp Salpa thompsoni to Environment Variability of the Western Antarctic Peninsula Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bucklin, A. C.; Batta Lona, P. G.; Maas, A. E.; O'Neill, R. J.; Wiebe, P. H.

2015-12-01

In response to the changing Antarctic climate, the Southern Ocean salp Salpa thompsoni has shown altered patterns of distribution and abundance that are anticipated to have profound impacts on pelagic food webs and ecosystem dynamics. The physiological and molecular processes that underlay ecological function and biogeographical distribution are key to understanding present-day dynamics and predicting future trajectories. This study examined transcriptome-wide patterns of gene expression in relation to biological and physical oceanographic conditions in coastal, shelf and offshore waters of the Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) region during austral spring and summer 2011. Based on field observations and collections, seasonal changes in the distribution and abundance of salps of different life stages were associated with differences in water mass structure of the WAP. Our observations are consistent with previous suggestions that bathymetry and currents in Bransfield Strait could generate a retentive cell for an overwintering population of S. thompsoni, which may generate the characteristic salp blooms found throughout the region later in summer. The statistical analysis of transcriptome-wide patterns of gene expression revealed differences among salps collected in different seasons and from different habitats (i.e., coastal versus offshore) in the WAP. Gene expression patterns also clustered by station in austral spring - but not summer - collections, suggesting stronger heterogeneity of environmental conditions. During the summer, differentially expressed genes covered a wider range of functions, including those associated with stress responses. Future research using novel molecular transcriptomic / genomic characterization of S. thompsoni will allow more complete understanding of individual-, population-, and species-level responses to environmental variability and prediction of future dynamics of Southern Ocean food webs and ecosystems.

Team Composition Issues for Future Space Exploration: A Review and Directions for Future Research.

PubMed

Bell, Suzanne T; Brown, Shanique G; Abben, Daniel R; Outland, Neal B

2015-06-01

Future space exploration, such as a mission to Mars, will require space crews to live and work in extreme environments unlike those of previous space missions. Extreme conditions such as prolonged confinement, isolation, and expected communication time delays will require that crews have a higher level of interpersonal compatibility and be able to work autonomously, adapting to unforeseen challenges in order to ensure mission success. Team composition, or the configuration of member attributes, is an important consideration for maximizing crewmember well-being and team performance. We conducted an extensive search to find articles about team composition in long-distance space exploration (LDSE)-analogue environments, including a search of databases, specific relevant journals, and by contacting authors who publish in the area. We review the team composition research conducted in analogue environments in terms of two paths through which team composition is likely to be related to LDSE mission success, namely by 1) affecting social integration, and 2) the team processes and emergent states related to team task completion. Suggestions for future research are summarized as: 1) the need to identify ways to foster unit-level social integration within diverse crews; 2) the missed opportunity to use team composition variables as a way to improve team processes, emergent states, and task completion; and 3) the importance of disentangling the effect of specific team composition variables to determine the traits (e.g., personality, values) that are associated with particular risks (e.g., subgrouping) to performance.

Spatial variability of organic layer thickness and carbon stocks in mature boreal forest stands--implications and suggestions for sampling designs.

PubMed

Kristensen, Terje; Ohlson, Mikael; Bolstad, Paul; Nagy, Zoltan

2015-08-01

Accurate field measurements from inventories across fine spatial scales are critical to improve sampling designs and to increase the precision of forest C cycling modeling. By studying soils undisturbed from active forest management, this paper gives a unique insight in the naturally occurring variability of organic layer C and provides valuable references against which subsequent and future sampling schemes can be evaluated. We found that the organic layer C stocks displayed great short-range variability with spatial autocorrelation distances ranging from 0.86 up to 2.85 m. When spatial autocorrelations are known, we show that a minimum of 20 inventory samples separated by ∼5 m is needed to determine the organic layer C stock with a precision of ±0.5 kg C m(-2). Our data also demonstrates a strong relationship between the organic layer C stock and horizon thickness (R (2) ranging from 0.58 to 0.82). This relationship suggests that relatively inexpensive measurements of horizon thickness can supplement soil C sampling, by reducing the number of soil samples collected, or to enhance the spatial resolution of organic layer C mapping.

Regional climate impacts of a possible future grand solar minimum.

PubMed

Ineson, Sarah; Maycock, Amanda C; Gray, Lesley J; Scaife, Adam A; Dunstone, Nick J; Harder, Jerald W; Knight, Jeff R; Lockwood, Mike; Manners, James C; Wood, Richard A

2015-06-23

Any reduction in global mean near-surface temperature due to a future decline in solar activity is likely to be a small fraction of projected anthropogenic warming. However, variability in ultraviolet solar irradiance is linked to modulation of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations, suggesting the potential for larger regional surface climate effects. Here, we explore possible impacts through two experiments designed to bracket uncertainty in ultraviolet irradiance in a scenario in which future solar activity decreases to Maunder Minimum-like conditions by 2050. Both experiments show regional structure in the wintertime response, resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation, with enhanced relative cooling over northern Eurasia and the eastern United States. For a high-end decline in solar ultraviolet irradiance, the impact on winter northern European surface temperatures over the late twenty-first century could be a significant fraction of the difference in climate change between plausible AR5 scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations.

West African Monsoon dynamics in idealized simulations: the competitive roles of SST warming and CO2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaetani, Marco; Flamant, Cyrille; Hourdin, Frederic; Bastin, Sophie; Braconnot, Pascale; Bony, Sandrine

2015-04-01

The West African Monsoon (WAM) is affected by large climate variability at different timescales, from interannual to multidecadal, with strong environmental and socio-economic impacts associated to climate-related rainfall variability, especially in the Sahelian belt. State-of-the-art coupled climate models still show poor ability in correctly simulating the WAM past variability and also a large spread is observed in future climate projections. In this work, the July-to-September (JAS) WAM variability in the period 1979-2008 is studied in AMIP-like simulations (SST-forced) from CMIP5. The individual roles of global SST warming and CO2 concentration increasing are investigated through idealized experiments simulating a 4K warmer SST and a 4x CO2 concentration, respectively. Results show a dry response in Sahel to SST warming, with dryer conditions over western Sahel. On the contrary, wet conditions are observed when CO2 is increased, with the strongest response over central-eastern Sahel. The precipitation changes are associated to modifications in the regional atmospheric circulation: dry (wet) conditions are associated with reduced (increased) convergence in the lower troposphere, a southward (northward) shift of the African Easterly Jet, and a weaker (stronger) Tropical Easterly Jet. The co-variability between global SST and WAM precipitation is also investigated, highlighting a reorganization of the main co-variability modes. Namely, in the 4xCO2 simulation the influence of Tropical Pacific is dominant, while it is reduced in the 4K simulation, which also shows an increased coupling with the eastern Pacific and the Indian Ocean. The above results suggest a competitive action of SST warming and CO2 increasing on the WAM climate variability, with opposite effects on precipitation. The combination of the observed positive and negative response in precipitation, with wet conditions in central-eastern Sahel and dry conditions in western Sahel, is consistent with the future precipitation trends over West Africa resulting from CMIP5 coupled simulations. It is argued that the large spread in CMIP5 future projections may be related to the weight given to SST warming and direct CO2 effect by individual models. The capability of climate models in reproducing the SST-precipitation relationship appears to be crucial in this respect.

Accounting for multiple climate components when estimating climate change exposure and velocity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nadeau, Christopher P.; Fuller, Angela K.

2015-01-01

The effect of anthropogenic climate change on organisms will likely be related to climate change exposure and velocity at local and regional scales. However, common methods to estimate climate change exposure and velocity ignore important components of climate that are known to affect the ecology and evolution of organisms.We develop a novel index of climate change (climate overlap) that simultaneously estimates changes in the means, variation and correlation between multiple weather variables. Specifically, we estimate the overlap between multivariate normal probability distributions representing historical and current or projected future climates. We provide methods for estimating the statistical significance of climate overlap values and methods to estimate velocity using climate overlap.We show that climates have changed significantly across 80% of the continental United States in the last 32 years and that much of this change is due to changes in the variation and correlation between weather variables (two statistics that are rarely incorporated into climate change studies). We also show that projected future temperatures are predicted to be locally novel (<1·5% overlap) across most of the global land surface and that exposure is likely to be highest in areas with low historical climate variation. Last, we show that accounting for changes in the variation and correlation between multiple weather variables can dramatically affect velocity estimates; mean velocity estimates in the continental United States were between 3·1 and 19·0 km yr−1when estimated using climate overlap compared to 1·4 km yr−1 when estimated using traditional methods.Our results suggest that accounting for changes in the means, variation and correlation between multiple weather variables can dramatically affect estimates of climate change exposure and velocity. These climate components are known to affect the ecology and evolution of organisms, but are ignored by most measures of climate change. We conclude with a set of future directions and recommend future work to determine which measures of climate change exposure and velocity are most related to biological responses to climate change.

Drivers and potential predictability of summer time North Atlantic polar front jet variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hall, Richard J.; Jones, Julie M.; Hanna, Edward; Scaife, Adam A.; Erdélyi, Róbert

2017-06-01

The variability of the North Atlantic polar front jet stream is crucial in determining summer weather around the North Atlantic basin. Recent extreme summers in western Europe and North America have highlighted the need for greater understanding of this variability, in order to aid seasonal forecasting and mitigate societal, environmental and economic impacts. Here we find that simple linear regression and composite models based on a few predictable factors are able to explain up to 35 % of summertime jet stream speed and latitude variability from 1955 onwards. Sea surface temperature forcings impact predominantly on jet speed, whereas solar and cryospheric forcings appear to influence jet latitude. The cryospheric associations come from the previous autumn, suggesting the survival of an ice-induced signal through the winter season, whereas solar influences lead jet variability by a few years. Regression models covering the earlier part of the twentieth century are much less effective, presumably due to decreased availability of data, and increased uncertainty in observational reanalyses. Wavelet coherence analysis identifies that associations fluctuate over the study period but it is not clear whether this is just internal variability or genuine non-stationarity. Finally we identify areas for future research.

Understanding the Global Variability in Thermospheric Nitric Oxide Flux Using Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flynn, Sierra; Knipp, Delores J.; Matsuo, Tomoko; Mlynczak, Martin; Hunt, Linda

2018-05-01

We present the first-ever global assessment of thermospheric nitric oxide infrared radiative flux (NOF) variability. NOF (W/m2) from 100- to 250-km altitude is extracted from 13.7 years of data from the TIMED satellite, Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument, and decomposed into four empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) and their amplitudes. We determine the strongest modes of NOF variability in the data set and develop a compact model of NOF. The first four EOFs account for 83% of the variability in the data. We illustrate the NOF model and discuss the geophysical associations of the EOFs. The first EOF represents 69% of the total variance and correlates strongly with Kp and solar shortwave flux, suggesting that geomagnetic activity and solar weather account for a large portion of NOF variability. EOF 2 shows annual and seasonal variations, possibly due to annual and seasonal thermospheric composition and temperature changes and may represent the chemical breathing mode of NOF. EOF 3 shows annual variations and correlates with solar energetic particle events and X-flares. EOF 3 may represent winter time solar energetic particle event-enhanced diurnal tide effects. EOF 4 suggests a meridional transport mechanism at the predawn and postdusk equator after strong storms. The EOF uncertainty is verified using cross-validation analysis. Quantifying the spatial and temporal variabilities of NOF using eigenmodes will increase the understanding of how upper atmospheric nitric oxide cooling behaves and could increase the accuracy of future space weather and climate models.

Changes of reference evapotranspiration in the Haihe River Basin: Present observations and future projection from climatic variables through multi-model ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xing, Wanqiu; Wang, Weiguang; Shao, Quanxi; Peng, Shizhang; Yu, Zhongbo; Yong, Bin; Taylor, John

2014-04-01

As the most excellent indicator for hydrological cycle and a central link to water-balance calculations, the reference evapotranspiration (ET0) is of increasing importance in assessing the potential impacts of climate change on hydrology and water resources systems since the climate change has been becoming more pronounced. In this study, we conduct an investigation on the spatial and temporal changes in ET0 of the Haihe River Basin in present and future stages. The ET0 in the past five decades (1961-2010) are calculated by the Penman-Monteith method with historical climatic variables in 40 sites while the ET0 estimation for the future period of 2011-2099 is based on the related climatic variables projected by Coupled General Circulation Model (CGCM) multimodel ensemble projections in Phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) using the Bayesian Model Average (BMA) approach. Results can be summarized for the present and future as follows. (1) No coherent spatial patterns in ET0 changes are seen in the whole basin. Half of the stations distributed mainly in the eastern and southeastern plain regions present significant negative trends, while only 3 stations in the western mountainous and plateau basin show significant positive trends. Radiation is mainly responsible for the ET0 change in the southern and eastern basin, whereas relative humidity and wind speed are the leading factors in the eastern coastal and north parts. (2) BMA ensemble method is competent to produce lower bias in comparison with other common methods in this basin. Future spatiotemporal ET0 pattern analysis by means of the BMA method based on the ensembles of four CGCMs suggested that although the spatial patterns under three scenarios are different in the forthcoming two decades, generally increasing trends can be found in the 21st century, which is mainly attributed to the significant increasing temperature. In addition, the implication of future ET0 change in agriculture and local water resources is discussed as an extension of this work. The results can provide beneficial reference and comprehensive information to understand the impact of climate change on the future water balance and improve the regional strategy for water resource and eco-environment management in the Haihe River Basin.

Evidence of the Value of the Smoking Media Literacy Framework for Middle School Students.

PubMed

Bier, Melinda C; Zwarun, Lara; Sherblom, Stephen A

2016-10-01

Susceptibility to future smoking, positive beliefs about smoking, and perceptions of antismoking norms are all factors that are associated with future smoking. In previous research, smoking media literacy (SML) has been associated with these variables, even when controlling for other known risk factors for smoking. However, these studies were performed with older teenagers, often in high school, not younger teens at a crucial developmental point with respect to the decision to begin smoking. This study uses survey data collected from 656 American public middle school students representing multiple zip codes, schools, and school districts. Smoking media literacy levels for middle school students were similar to those of high school students in earlier studies. Higher SML levels were associated with lower susceptibility to future smoking and predicted susceptibility to smoke when controlling for other risk factors. This suggests that the same relationships found with teenagers may exist with middle school students. Although follow-up studies using larger and more controlled administrations of the SML scale are warranted, this study suggests the utility of the SML framework and scale in the development and investigation of media literacy as a prevention strategy in students this age. © 2016, American School Health Association.

Motivational indicators of protective behaviour in response to urban water shortage threat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mankad, Aditi; Greenhill, Murni; Tucker, David; Tapsuwan, Sorada

2013-05-01

The present study examined the role of protection motivation variables in predicting rainwater tank adoption among urban householders. A regression analysis found that subjective knowledge, threat appraisal, response efficacy, response costs, subjective norms and social norms significantly predicted adaptive behavioural intentions (F(6, 399) = 50.769, p < .001, Cohen's f2 = .763). The model accounted for 43% of the variance in intentions to install a rainwater tank as a protective measure against future water shortages. Results further indicated that several variables uniquely contributed to the prediction of rainwater tank adoption (listed in order of relative contribution: response efficacy, threat appraisal, response costs, subjective knowledge and subjective norms). This suggests that people who perceive there is a real water shortage threat, and believe that rainwater tanks are effective in relieving the threat and require minimal or manageable effort to obtain, are more likely to install a tank on their property as a protective measure. Implications of these results are discussed from a research and policy perspective. Recommendations for future motivational research in the area of urban decentralised system acceptance and adoption are presented.

The Effects of Mobile-Computer-Supported Collaborative Learning: Meta-Analysis and Critical Synthesis.

PubMed

Sung, Yao-Ting; Yang, Je-Ming; Lee, Han-Yueh

2017-08-01

One of the trends in collaborative learning is using mobile devices for supporting the process and products of collaboration, which has been forming the field of mobile-computer-supported collaborative learning (mCSCL). Although mobile devices have become valuable collaborative learning tools, evaluative evidence for their substantial contributions to collaborative learning is still scarce. The present meta-analysis, which included 48 peer-reviewed journal articles and doctoral dissertations written over a 16-year period (2000-2015) involving 5,294 participants, revealed that mCSCL has produced meaningful improvements for collaborative learning, with an overall mean effect size of 0.516. Moderator variables, such as domain subject, group size, teaching method, intervention duration, and reward method were related to different effect sizes. The results provided implications for future research and practice, such as suggestions on how to appropriately use the functionalities of mobile devices, how to best leverage mCSCL through effective group learning mechanisms, and what outcome variables should be included in future studies to fully elucidate the process and products of mCSCL.

The Effects of Mobile-Computer-Supported Collaborative Learning: Meta-Analysis and Critical Synthesis

PubMed Central

Sung, Yao-Ting; Yang, Je-Ming; Lee, Han-Yueh

2017-01-01

One of the trends in collaborative learning is using mobile devices for supporting the process and products of collaboration, which has been forming the field of mobile-computer-supported collaborative learning (mCSCL). Although mobile devices have become valuable collaborative learning tools, evaluative evidence for their substantial contributions to collaborative learning is still scarce. The present meta-analysis, which included 48 peer-reviewed journal articles and doctoral dissertations written over a 16-year period (2000–2015) involving 5,294 participants, revealed that mCSCL has produced meaningful improvements for collaborative learning, with an overall mean effect size of 0.516. Moderator variables, such as domain subject, group size, teaching method, intervention duration, and reward method were related to different effect sizes. The results provided implications for future research and practice, such as suggestions on how to appropriately use the functionalities of mobile devices, how to best leverage mCSCL through effective group learning mechanisms, and what outcome variables should be included in future studies to fully elucidate the process and products of mCSCL. PMID:28989193

ENSO activity during the last climate cycle using IFA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leduc, Guillaume; Vidal, Laurence; Thirumalai, Kaustubh

2017-04-01

The El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the principal mode of interannual climate variability and affects key climate parameters such as low-latitude rainfall variability. Anticipating future ENSO variability under anthropogenic forcing is vital due to its profound socioeconomic impact. Fossil corals suggest that 20th century ENSO variance is particularly high as compared to other time periods of the Holocene (Cobb et al., 2013, Science), the Last Glacial Maximum (Ford et al., 2015, Science) and the last glacial period (Tudhope et al., 2001, Science). Yet, recent climate modeling experiments suggest an increase in the frequency of both El Niño (Cai et al., 2014, Nature Climate Change) and La Niña (Cai et al., 2015, Nature Climate Change) events. We have expanded an Individual Foraminifera Analysis (IFA) dataset using the thermocline-dwelling N. dutertrei on a marine core collected in the Panama Basin (Leduc et al., 2009, Paleoceanography), that has proven to be a skillful way to reconstruct the ENSO (Thirumalai et al., 2013, Paleoceanography). Our new IFA dataset comprehensively covers the Holocene, the last deglaciation and Termination II (MIS5/6) time windows. We will also use previously published data from the Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS3). Our dataset confirms variable ENSO intensity during the Holocene and weaker activity during LGM than during the Holocene. As a next step, ENSO activity will be discussed with respect to the contrasting climatic background of the analysed time windows (millenial-scale variability, Terminations).

Methodological concerns for meta-analyses of meditation: Comment on Sedlmeier et al. (2012).

PubMed

Orme-Johnson, David W; Dillbeck, Michael C

2014-03-01

We commend Sedlmeier et al. (2012) for their significant undertaking of meta-analysis of all meditation types on all psychological variables, but additional analyses may modify some of their conclusions. Whereas they suggest from visual inspection of funnel diagrams that there may be publication bias of underreporting low-effect studies on the Transcendental Meditation (TM) technique, quantitative tests do not indicate the presence of bias for any type of meditation. We additionally found that there was no significant difference in effect sizes between studies originating from researchers affiliated with a TM organization and studies from other universities. We found that comparison of different types of meditation on their global index was confounded because their global index aggregated different sets of variables for the different groups. That is, using composite indices that only aggregated variables for which each group had at least 3 studies confirmed the authors' conclusion that effect sizes for different research designs were not different, but found that effect sizes for the TM technique were significantly larger than effect sizes for mindfulness meditation or other meditations. We also located 35 studies on the TM technique that appear to meet the authors' inclusion criteria that were missed by their meta-analysis, and several others on important psychosocial behavioral variables, such as job performance, substance abuse, and prison recidivism that were not reviewed. In addition, we suggest that future meta-analyses on psychological variables include cross-validating physiological studies.

Help Seeking Among Victims of Crime: A Review of the Empirical Literature

PubMed Central

McCart, Michael R.; Smith, Daniel W.; Sawyer, Genelle K.

2013-01-01

This paper reviews the literature on help-seeking behavior among adult victims of crime. Specifically, the paper summarizes prevalence rates for formal and informal help seeking and reviews predictors of and barriers to service use following victimization. Research suggests that only a small fraction of crime victims seek help from formal support networks; however, many seek support from informal sources. Several variables are associated with increased likelihood of formal help seeking, although the manner in which these variables affect reporting behavior is not clear. From this review, it is concluded that much remains to be learned regarding patterns of help seeking among victims of crime. Gaps in the literature and directions for future research are discussed. PMID:20336674

Optimization of a Small Scale Linear Reluctance Accelerator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barrera, Thor; Beard, Robby

2011-11-01

Reluctance accelerators are extremely promising future methods of transportation. Several problems still plague these devices, most prominently low efficiency. Variables to overcoming efficiency problems are many and difficult to correlate how they affect our accelerator. The study examined several differing variables that present potential challenges in optimizing the efficiency of reluctance accelerators. These include coil and projectile design, power supplies, switching, and the elusive gradient inductance problem. Extensive research in these areas has been performed from computational and theoretical to experimental. Findings show that these parameters share significant similarity to transformer design elements, thus general findings show current optimized parameters the research suggests as a baseline for further research and design. Demonstration of these current findings will be offered at the time of presentation.

The protective role of ethnic and racial identity and aspects of an Africentric orientation against drug use among African American young adults.

PubMed

Brook, Judith S; Pahl, Kerstin

2005-09-01

In this study, the authors examined (a) the protective potential of multiple components of ethnic and racial identity and (b) the aspects of an Africentric orientation for moderating psychobehavioral risk and protective factors for drug use among a sample of 333 urban low-income African American young adults. Ethnic and racial identity and Africentric variables moderated the relationship between psychobehavioral variables and drug stage in 32.5% of the cases. Ethnic and racial identity and Africentric values for African American young adults seemed to be important as moderators of the association between psychobehavioral factors and young adult drug use. The authors suggested implications for future research and interventions.

In-session behaviours and adolescents' self-concept and loneliness: A psychodrama process-outcome study.

PubMed

Orkibi, Hod; Azoulay, Bracha; Snir, Sharon; Regev, Dafna

2017-11-01

As adolescents spend many hours a day in school, it is crucial to examine the ways in which therapeutic practices in schools promote their well-being. This longitudinal pilot study examined the contribution of school-based psychodrama group therapy to the self-concept dimensions and perceived loneliness of 40 Israeli adolescents (aged 13-16, 60% boys) in public middle schools. From a process-outcome perspective, we also examined the understudied trajectory of adolescents' in-session behaviours (process variables) and its associations with changes in their self-concepts and loneliness (outcome variables). Psychodrama participants reported increases in global, social, and behavioural self-concepts and a decrease in loneliness compared to the control group. In-session productive behaviours increased and resistance decreased throughout the therapy, but varied process-outcome relationships were found. The study suggests that conducting further research into the process-outcome relationships in psychodrama group therapy is warranted to pinpoint specific mechanisms of change. Suggestions for future studies are provided. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Making stronger causal inferences: Accounting for selection bias in associations between high performance work systems, leadership, and employee and customer satisfaction.

PubMed

Schmidt, Joseph A; Pohler, Dionne M

2018-05-17

We develop competing hypotheses about the relationship between high performance work systems (HPWS) with employee and customer satisfaction. Drawing on 8 years of employee and customer survey data from a financial services firm, we used a recently developed empirical technique-covariate balanced propensity score (CBPS) weighting-to examine if the proposed relationships between HPWS and satisfaction outcomes can be explained by reverse causality, selection effects, or commonly omitted variables such as leadership behavior. The results provide support for leader behaviors as a primary driver of customer satisfaction, rather than HPWS, and also suggest that the problem of reverse causality requires additional attention in future human resource (HR) systems research. Model comparisons suggest that the estimates and conclusions vary across CBPS, meta-analytic, cross-sectional, and time-lagged models (with and without a lagged dependent variable as a control). We highlight the theoretical and methodological implications of the findings for HR systems research. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Human Influence on Tropical Cyclone Intensity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sobel, Adam H.; Camargo, Suzana J.; Hall, Timothy M.; Lee, Chia-Ying; Tippett, Michael K.; Wing, Allison A.

2016-01-01

Recent assessments agree that tropical cyclone intensity should increase as the climate warms. Less agreement exists on the detection of recent historical trends in tropical cyclone intensity.We interpret future and recent historical trends by using the theory of potential intensity, which predicts the maximum intensity achievable by a tropical cyclone in a given local environment. Although greenhouse gas-driven warming increases potential intensity, climate model simulations suggest that aerosol cooling has largely canceled that effect over the historical record. Large natural variability complicates analysis of trends, as do poleward shifts in the latitude of maximum intensity. In the absence of strong reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, future greenhouse gas forcing of potential intensity will increasingly dominate over aerosol forcing, leading to substantially larger increases in tropical cyclone intensities.

Affordances of Augmented Reality in Science Learning: Suggestions for Future Research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Kun-Hung; Tsai, Chin-Chung

2013-08-01

Augmented reality (AR) is currently considered as having potential for pedagogical applications. However, in science education, research regarding AR-aided learning is in its infancy. To understand how AR could help science learning, this review paper firstly has identified two major approaches of utilizing AR technology in science education, which are named as image- based AR and location- based AR. These approaches may result in different affordances for science learning. It is then found that students' spatial ability, practical skills, and conceptual understanding are often afforded by image-based AR and location-based AR usually supports inquiry-based scientific activities. After examining what has been done in science learning with AR supports, several suggestions for future research are proposed. For example, more research is required to explore learning experience (e.g., motivation or cognitive load) and learner characteristics (e.g., spatial ability or perceived presence) involved in AR. Mixed methods of investigating learning process (e.g., a content analysis and a sequential analysis) and in-depth examination of user experience beyond usability (e.g., affective variables of esthetic pleasure or emotional fulfillment) should be considered. Combining image-based and location-based AR technology may bring new possibility for supporting science learning. Theories including mental models, spatial cognition, situated cognition, and social constructivist learning are suggested for the profitable uses of future AR research in science education.

Potential human impacts of overlapping land-use and climate in a sensitive dryland: a case study of the Colorado Plateau, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Copeland, Stella; Bradford, John B.; Duniway, Michael C.; Schuster, Rudy

2017-01-01

Climate and land-use interactions are likely to affect future environmental and socioeconomic conditions in drylands, which tend to be limited by water resources and prone to land degradation. We characterized the potential for interactions between land-use types and land-use and climate change in a model dryland system, the Colorado Plateau, a region with a history of climatic variability and land-use change. We analyzed the spatial and temporal trends in aridification, land-use, and recreation at the county and 10 km2 grid scales. Our results show that oil and gas development and recreation may interact due to increasing trends and overlapping areas of high intensity. Projections suggest that aridification will impact all vegetation classes, with some of the highest proportional change in the south-east. The results suggest that the rate of change and spatial pattern of land-use in the future may differ from past patterns in land-use scale and intensity.

Among-provence variability of gas exchange and growth in response to long-term elevated CO2 exposure

Treesearch

James L.J. Houpis; Paul D. Anderson; James C. Pushnik; David J. Anschel

1999-01-01

Genetic variability can have profound effects on the interpretation of results from elevated CO2 studies, and future forest management decisions. Information on which varieties are best suited to future atmospheric conditions is needed to develop future forest management practices. A large-scale screening study of the effects of elevated CO

A 1,200-year perspective of 21st century drought in southwestern North America

PubMed Central

Woodhouse, Connie A.; Meko, David M.; MacDonald, Glen M.; Stahle, Dave W.; Cook, Edward R.

2010-01-01

A key feature of anticipated 21st century droughts in Southwest North America is the concurrence of elevated temperatures and increased aridity. Instrumental records and paleoclimatic evidence for past prolonged drought in the Southwest that coincide with elevated temperatures can be assessed to provide insights on temperature-drought relations and to develop worst-case scenarios for the future. In particular, during the medieval period, ∼AD 900–1300, the Northern Hemisphere experienced temperatures warmer than all but the most recent decades. Paleoclimatic and model data indicate increased temperatures in western North America of approximately 1 °C over the long-term mean. This was a period of extensive and persistent aridity over western North America. Paleoclimatic evidence suggests drought in the mid-12th century far exceeded the severity, duration, and extent of subsequent droughts. The driest decade of this drought was anomalously warm, though not as warm as the late 20th and early 21st centuries. The convergence of prolonged warming and arid conditions suggests the mid-12th century may serve as a conservative analogue for severe droughts that might occur in the future. The severity, extent, and persistence of the 12th century drought that occurred under natural climate variability, have important implications for water resource management. The causes of past and future drought will not be identical but warm droughts, inferred from paleoclimatic records, demonstrate the plausibility of extensive, severe droughts, provide a long-term perspective on the ongoing drought conditions in the Southwest, and suggest the need for regional sustainability planning for the future. PMID:21149683

Assessing the potential impacts of a changing climate on the distribution of a rabies virus vector

PubMed Central

Piaggio, Antoinette J.

2018-01-01

Common vampire bats (Desmodus rotundus) occur throughout much of South America to northern México. Vampire bats have not been documented in recent history in the United States, but have been documented within about 50 km of the U.S. state of Texas. Vampire bats feed regularly on the blood of mammals and can transmit rabies virus to native species and livestock, causing impacts on the health of prey. Thus cattle producers, wildlife management agencies, and other stakeholders have expressed concerns about whether vampire bats might spread into the southern United States. On the other hand, concerns about vampire-borne rabies can also result in wanton destruction at bat roosts in areas occupied by vampire bats, but also in areas not known to be occupied by this species. This can in turn negatively affect some bat roosts, populations, and species that are of conservation concern, including vampire bats. To better understand the current and possible future distribution of vampire bats in North America and help mitigate future cattle management problems, we used 7,094 vampire bat occurrence records from North America and species distribution modeling (SDM) to map the potential distribution of vampire bats in North America under current and future climate change scenarios. We analysed and mapped the potential distribution of this species using 5 approaches to species distribution modeling: logistic regression, multivariate adaptive regression splines, boosted regression trees, random forest, and maximum entropy. We then projected these models into 17 “worst-case” future climate scenarios for year 2070 to generate hypotheses about how the vampire bat distribution in North America might change in the future. Of the variables used in this analysis, minimum temperature of the coldest month had the highest variable importance using all 5 SDM approaches. These results suggest two potential near-future routes of vampire bat dispersal into the U.S., one via southern Texas, and a second into southern Florida. Some of our SDM models support the hypothesis that suitable habitat for vampire bats may currently exist in parts of the México–U.S. borderlands, including extreme southern portions of Texas, as well as in southern Florida. However, this analysis also suggests that extensive expansion into the south-eastern and south-western U.S. over the coming ~60 years appears unlikely. PMID:29466401

Assessing the potential impacts of a changing climate on the distribution of a rabies virus vector.

PubMed

Hayes, Mark A; Piaggio, Antoinette J

2018-01-01

Common vampire bats (Desmodus rotundus) occur throughout much of South America to northern México. Vampire bats have not been documented in recent history in the United States, but have been documented within about 50 km of the U.S. state of Texas. Vampire bats feed regularly on the blood of mammals and can transmit rabies virus to native species and livestock, causing impacts on the health of prey. Thus cattle producers, wildlife management agencies, and other stakeholders have expressed concerns about whether vampire bats might spread into the southern United States. On the other hand, concerns about vampire-borne rabies can also result in wanton destruction at bat roosts in areas occupied by vampire bats, but also in areas not known to be occupied by this species. This can in turn negatively affect some bat roosts, populations, and species that are of conservation concern, including vampire bats. To better understand the current and possible future distribution of vampire bats in North America and help mitigate future cattle management problems, we used 7,094 vampire bat occurrence records from North America and species distribution modeling (SDM) to map the potential distribution of vampire bats in North America under current and future climate change scenarios. We analysed and mapped the potential distribution of this species using 5 approaches to species distribution modeling: logistic regression, multivariate adaptive regression splines, boosted regression trees, random forest, and maximum entropy. We then projected these models into 17 "worst-case" future climate scenarios for year 2070 to generate hypotheses about how the vampire bat distribution in North America might change in the future. Of the variables used in this analysis, minimum temperature of the coldest month had the highest variable importance using all 5 SDM approaches. These results suggest two potential near-future routes of vampire bat dispersal into the U.S., one via southern Texas, and a second into southern Florida. Some of our SDM models support the hypothesis that suitable habitat for vampire bats may currently exist in parts of the México-U.S. borderlands, including extreme southern portions of Texas, as well as in southern Florida. However, this analysis also suggests that extensive expansion into the south-eastern and south-western U.S. over the coming ~60 years appears unlikely.

Characterizing Ship Navigation Patterns Using Automatic Identification System (AIS) Data in the Baltic Sea

DTIC Science & Technology

in the Saint Petersburg area. We use three random forest models, that differ in their use of past information , to predict a vessels next port of visit...network where past information is used to more accurately predict the future state. The transitional probabilities change when predictor variables are...added that reach deeper into the past. Our findings suggest that successful prediction of the movement of a vessel depends on having accurate information on its recent history.

Perception of potential nuclear disaster: the relation of likelihood and consequence estimates of risk.

PubMed

Mehta, M D; Simpson-Housley, P

1994-12-01

This study examined the correlations of ratings of expectation of a future disaster in a nuclear power plant and estimation of its consequences in a random sample of 150 adults who lived within two kilometers of a nuclear power plant. Analysis suggested a significant positive but low relation. This finding indicates that risk perception might be explored using constellations of beliefs and attitudes toward hazards without invoking personality characteristics like trait anxiety or demographic variables such as gender.

How have hospitals faced the pricing issues of the 1990's?

PubMed

Kleimenhagen, A; Naidu, G M; Pillari, G D

1994-01-01

National health care expenditures are rising rapidly, bringing on a health care financing crisis. For this reason, it is useful to see how hospitals are facing the price issues of the 1990's. This study examines the price strategies hospitals follow and analyzes their observations on price sensitivity and payer mix. The results clearly show that hospitals have not given much attention to the pricing variable. The study suggests that marketing and finance will have to work closely together in developing future pricing strategies.

Neuroticism Combined With Slower and More Variable Reaction Time: Synergistic Risk Factors for 7-Year Cognitive Decline in Females

PubMed Central

Shickle, Darren A.; Roberts, Beverly A.; Deary, Ian J.

2012-01-01

Objective. Among adults, slower and more variable reaction times are associated with worse cognitive function and increased mortality risk. Therefore, it is important to elucidate risk factors for reaction time change over the life course. Method. Data from the Health and Lifestyle Survey (HALS) were used to examine predictors of 7-year decline in reaction time (N = 4,260). Regression-derived factor scores were used to summarize general change across 4 reaction time variables: simple mean, 4-choice mean, simple variability, and 4-choice variability (53.52% of variance). Results. Age (B = .02, p < .001) and HALS1 baseline reaction time (B = −.10, p = .001) were significant risk factors for males (N = 1,899). In addition to these variables, in females (N = 2,361), neuroticism was significant and interacted synergistically with baseline reaction time (B = .06, p = .04). Adjustment for physiological variables explained the interaction with neuroticism, suggesting that candidate mechanisms had been identified. Discussion. A priority for future research is to replicate interactions between personality and reaction time in other samples and find specific mechanisms. Stratification of population data on cognitive health by personality and reaction time could improve strategies for identifying those at greater risk of cognitive decline. PMID:22367712

Evidence for a Time-Invariant Phase Variable in Human Ankle Control

PubMed Central

Gregg, Robert D.; Rouse, Elliott J.; Hargrove, Levi J.; Sensinger, Jonathon W.

2014-01-01

Human locomotion is a rhythmic task in which patterns of muscle activity are modulated by state-dependent feedback to accommodate perturbations. Two popular theories have been proposed for the underlying embodiment of phase in the human pattern generator: a time-dependent internal representation or a time-invariant feedback representation (i.e., reflex mechanisms). In either case the neuromuscular system must update or represent the phase of locomotor patterns based on the system state, which can include measurements of hundreds of variables. However, a much simpler representation of phase has emerged in recent designs for legged robots, which control joint patterns as functions of a single monotonic mechanical variable, termed a phase variable. We propose that human joint patterns may similarly depend on a physical phase variable, specifically the heel-to-toe movement of the Center of Pressure under the foot. We found that when the ankle is unexpectedly rotated to a position it would have encountered later in the step, the Center of Pressure also shifts forward to the corresponding later position, and the remaining portion of the gait pattern ensues. This phase shift suggests that the progression of the stance ankle is controlled by a biomechanical phase variable, motivating future investigations of phase variables in human locomotor control. PMID:24558485

Age and sex influences on running mechanics and coordination variability.

PubMed

Boyer, Katherine A; Freedman Silvernail, Julia; Hamill, Joseph

2017-11-01

The purpose of this study was to examine the impact of age on running mechanics separately for male and female runners and to quantify sex differences in running mechanics and coordination variability for older runners. Kinematics and kinetics were captured for 20 younger (10 male) and 20 older (10 male) adults running overground at 3.5 m · s -1 . A modified vector coding technique was used to calculate segment coordination variability. Lower extremity joint angles, moments and segment coordination variability were compared between age and sex groups. Significant sex-age interaction effects were found for heel-strike hip flexion and ankle in/eversion angles and peak ankle dorsiflexion angle. In older adults, mid-stance knee flexion angle, ankle inversion and abduction moments and hip abduction and external rotation moments differed by sex. Older compared with younger females had reduced coordination variability in the thigh-shank transverse plane couple but greater coordination variability for the shank rotation-foot eversion couple in early stance. These results suggest there may be a non-equivalent aging process in the movement mechanics for males and females. The age and sex differences in running mechanics and coordination variability highlight the need for sex-based analyses for future studies examining injury risk with age.

Individual differences in the day-to-day variability of pain, fatigue, and well-being in patients with rheumatic disease: Associations with psychological variables

PubMed Central

Schneider, Stefan; Junghaenel, Doerte U.; Keefe, Francis J.; Schwartz, Joseph E.; Stone, Arthur A.; Broderick, Joan E.

2012-01-01

This paper examines day-to-day variability in rheumatology patients' ratings of pain and related quality-of-life variables as well as predictors of that variability. Data from two studies were used. The hypothesis was that greater psychological distress (i.e., depression and anxiety) and poorer coping appraisals (i.e., higher pain catastrophizing and lower self-efficacy) are associated with more variability. Electronic daily diary ratings were collected from 106 patients from a community rheumatology practice across 28 days (Study 1), and from 194 osteoarthritis patients across 7 days (Study 2). In multilevel modeling analyses, substantial day-to-day variability was evident for all variables in both studies, andindividual patients differed considerably and somewhat reliably in the magnitude of their variability. Higher levels of depression significantly predicted greater variability in pain, as well as in happiness and frustration (Study 1). Lower self-efficacy was associated with more variability in patients' daily satisfaction with accomplishments and in the quality of their day (Study 2). Greater pain catastrophizing and higher depression predicted more variability in interference with social relationships (Study 2). Anxiety was not significantly associated with day-to-day variability. The results of these studies suggest that individual differences in the magnitude of symptom fluctuation may play a vital role in understanding patients' adjustment to pain. Future research will be needed to examine the clinical utility of measuring variability in patients' pain and well being, and to understand whether reducing variability may be an important treatment target. PMID:22349917

Non-traditional Serum Lipid Variables and Recurrent Stroke Risk

PubMed Central

Park, Jong-Ho; Lee, Juneyoung; Ovbiagele, Bruce

2014-01-01

Background and Purpose Expert consensus guidelines recommend low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) as the primary serum lipid target for recurrent stroke risk reduction. However, mounting evidence suggests that other lipid parameters might be additional therapeutic targets or at least also predict cardiovascular risk. Little is known about the effects of non-traditional lipid variables on recurrent stroke risk. Methods We analyzed the Vitamin Intervention for Stroke Prevention study database comprising 3680 recent (<120 days) ischemic stroke patients followed up for 2 years. Independent associations of baseline serum lipid variables with recurrent ischemic stroke (primary outcome) and the composite endpoint of ischemic stroke/coronary heart disease (CHD)/vascular death (secondary outcomes) were assessed. Results Of all variables evaluated, only triglycerides (TG)/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) ratio was consistently and independently related to both outcomes: compared with the lowest quintile, the highest TG/HDL-C ratio quintile was associated with stroke (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.56; 95% CI, 1.05−2.32) and stroke/CHD/vascular death (1.39; 1.05−1.83), including adjustment for lipid modifier use. Compared with the lowest quintile, the highest total cholesterol/HDL-C ratio quintile was associated with stroke/CHD/vascular death (1.45; 1.03−2.03). LDL-C/HDL-C ratio, non-HDL-C, elevated TG alone, and low HDL-C alone were not independently linked to either outcome. Conclusions Of various non-traditional lipid variables, elevated baseline TG/HDL-C and TC/HDL-C ratios predict future vascular risk after a stroke, but only elevated TG/HDL-C ratio is related to risk of recurrent stroke. Future studies should assess the role of TG/HDL as a potential therapeutic target for global vascular risk reduction after stroke. PMID:25236873

Revealing The Impact Of Climate Variability On The Wind Resource Using Data Mining Techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clifton, A.; Lundquist, J. K.

2011-12-01

Wind turbines harvest energy from the wind. Winds at heights where industrial-scale turbines operate, up to 200 m above ground, experience a complex interaction between the atmosphere and the Earth's surface. Previous studies for a variety of locations have shown that the wind resource varies over time. In some locations, this variability can be related to large-scale climate oscillations as revealed in climate indices such as the El-Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). These indices can be used to quantify climate change in the past, and can also be extracted from models of future climate. Understanding the correlation between climate indices and wind resources therefore allows us to understand how climate change may influence wind energy production. We present a new methodology for assessing relevant climate modes of oscillation at a given site in order to quantify future wind resource variability. We demonstrate the method on a 14-year record of 10-minute averaged wind speed and wind direction data from several levels of an 80m tower at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) National Wind Technology Center near Boulder, Colorado. Data mining techniques (based on k-means clustering) identify 4 major groups of wind speed and direction. After removing annual means, each cluster was compared to a series of climate indices, including the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI). Statistically significant relationships emerge between individual clusters and climate indices. At this location, this result is consistent with the MEI's relationship with other meteorological parameters, such as precipitation, in the Rocky Mountain Region. The presentation will illustrate these relationships between wind resource at this location and other relevant climate indices, and suggest how these relationships can provide a foundation for quantifying the potential future variability of wind energy production at this site and others.

Effects of climate change and variability on population dynamics in a long-lived shorebird.

PubMed

van de Pol, Martijn; Vindenes, Yngvild; Saether, Bernt-Erik; Engen, Steinar; Ens, Bruno J; Oosterbeek, Kees; Tinbergen, Joost M

2010-04-01

Climate change affects both the mean and variability of climatic variables, but their relative impact on the dynamics of populations is still largely unexplored. Based on a long-term study of the demography of a declining Eurasian Oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus) population, we quantify the effect of changes in mean and variance of winter temperature on different vital rates across the life cycle. Subsequently, we quantify, using stochastic stage-structured models, how changes in the mean and variance of this environmental variable affect important characteristics of the future population dynamics, such as the time to extinction. Local mean winter temperature is predicted to strongly increase, and we show that this is likely to increase the population's persistence time via its positive effects on adult survival that outweigh the negative effects that higher temperatures have on fecundity. Interannual variation in winter temperature is predicted to decrease, which is also likely to increase persistence time via its positive effects on adult survival that outweigh the negative effects that lower temperature variability has on fecundity. Overall, a 0.1 degrees C change in mean temperature is predicted to alter median time to extinction by 1.5 times as many years as would a 0.1 degrees C change in the standard deviation in temperature, suggesting that the dynamics of oystercatchers are more sensitive to changes in the mean than in the interannual variability of this climatic variable. Moreover, as climate models predict larger changes in the mean than in the standard deviation of local winter temperature, the effects of future climatic variability on this population's time to extinction are expected to be overwhelmed by the effects of changes in climatic means. We discuss the mechanisms by which climatic variability can either increase or decrease population viability and how this might depend both on species' life histories and on the vital rates affected. This study illustrates that, for making reliable inferences about population consequences in species in which life history changes with age or stage, it is crucial to investigate the impact of climate change on vital rates across the entire life cycle. Disturbingly, such data are unavailable for most species of conservation concern.

Environmental links to interannual variability in shellfish toxicity in Cobscook Bay and eastern Maine, a strongly tidally mixed coastal region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horecka, Hannah M.; Thomas, Andrew C.; Weatherbee, Ryan A.

2014-05-01

The Gulf of Maine experiences annual closures of shellfish harvesting due to the accumulation of toxins produced by dinoflagellates of the genus Alexandrium. Factors controlling the timing, location, and magnitude of these events in eastern Maine remain poorly understood. Previous work identified possible linkages between interannual variability of oceanographic variables and shellfish toxicity along the western Maine coastline but no such linkages were evident along the eastern Maine coast in the vicinity of Cobscook Bay, where strong tidal mixing tends to reduce seasonal variability in oceanographic properties. Using 21 years (1985-2005) of shellfish toxicity data, interannual variability in two metrics of annual toxicity, maximum magnitude and total annual toxicity, from stations in the Cobscook Bay region are examined for relationships to a suite of available environmental variables. Consistent with earlier work, no (or only weak) correlations were found between toxicity and oceanographic variables, even those very proximate to the stations such as local sea surface temperature. Similarly no correlations were evident between toxicity and air temperature, precipitation or relative humidity. The data suggest possible connections to local river discharge, but plausible mechanisms are not obvious. Correlations between toxicity and two variables indicative of local meteorological conditions, dew point and atmospheric pressure, both suggest a link between increased toxicity in these eastern Maine stations and weather conditions characterized by clearer skies/drier air (or less stormy/humid conditions). As no correlation of opposite sign was evident between toxicity and local precipitation, one plausible link is through light availability and its positive impact on phytoplankton production in this persistently foggy section of coast. These preliminary findings point to both the value of maintaining long-term shellfish toxicity sampling and a need for inclusion of weather variability in future modeling studies aimed at development of a more mechanistic understanding of factors controlling interannual differences in eastern Gulf of Maine shellfish toxicity.

Components of a Model for Forecasting Future Status of Selected Social Indicators. Department of Education Project on Social Indicators. Technical Report No. 3.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Collazo, Andres; And Others

Since a great number of variables influence future educational outcomes, forecasting possible trends is a complex task. One such model, the cross-impact matrix, has been developed. The use of this matrix in forecasting future values of social indicators of educational outcomes is described. Variables associated with educational outcomes are used…

Evaluating the response of Lake Prespa (SW Balkan) to future climate change projections from a high-resolution model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Schriek, Tim; Varotsos, Konstantinos V.; Giannakopoulos, Christos

2017-04-01

The Mediterranean stands out globally due to its sensitivity to (future) climate change. Projections suggest that the Balkans will experience precipitation and runoff decreases of up to 30% by 2100. However, these projections show large regional spatial variability. Mediterranean lake-wetland systems are particularly threatened by projected climate changes that compound increasingly intensive human impacts (e.g. water extraction, drainage, pollution and dam-building). Protecting the remaining systems is extremely important for supporting global biodiversity. This protection should be based on a clear understanding of individual lake-wetland hydrological responses to future climate changes, which requires fine-resolution projections and a good understanding of the impact of hydro-climate variability on individual lakes. Climate change may directly affect lake level (variability), volume and water temperatures. In turn, these variables influence lake-ecology, habitats and water quality. Land-use intensification and water abstraction multiply these climate-driven changes. To date, there are no projections of future water level and -temperature of individual Mediterranean lakes under future climate scenarios. These are, however, of crucial importance to steer preservation strategies on the relevant catchment-scale. Here we present the first projections of water level and -temperature of the Prespa Lakes covering the period 2071-2100. These lakes are of global significance for biodiversity, and of great regional socio-economic importance as a water resource and tourist attraction. Impact projections are assessed by the Regional Climate Model RCA4 of the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) driven by the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology global climate model MPI-ESM-LR under two RCP future emissions scenarios, the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5, with the simulations carried out in the framework of EURO-CORDEX. Temperature, evapo(transpi)ration and precipitation over the Prespa catchment were simulated with this high horizontal resolution (12 × 12 km) regional climate model. Lake temperatures were derived from surface temperatures based on physical models, while water levels were calculated with the lake water balance model. Climate simulations indicate that annual- and wet season catchment precipitation does not significantly change by the end of the century. The median precipitation decreases, while precipitation variability increases. The percentage of annual precipitation falling in the wet season increases by 5-10%, indicating a stronger seasonality in the precipitation regime. Summer (lake) temperatures and lake surface evaporation will rise significantly under both explored climate change scenarios. Lake impact projections indicate that evaporation changes will cause the water level of Lake Megali Prespa to fall by 5m to 840-839m. The increased precipitation variability will cause large inter-annual water level fluctuations. Average water level may fall even further if: (1) drier summers lead to more water abstraction for irrigation, and (2) there is a reduction in winter snowfall/accumulation and thus less discharge. These findings are of key importance for developing sustainable lake water resource management in a region that is highly vulnerable to future climate change and already experiences significant water stress. Research paves the way for innovative management adaptation strategies focussed on decreasing water abstraction, for example through introducing smart irrigation and selecting more water efficient crops.

Current and Future Decadal Trends in the Oceanic Carbon Uptake Are Dominated by Internal Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Hongmei; Ilyina, Tatiana

2018-01-01

We investigate the internal decadal variability of the ocean carbon uptake using 100 ensemble simulations based on the Max Planck Institute Earth system model (MPI-ESM). We find that on decadal time scales, internal variability (ensemble spread) is as large as the forced temporal variability (ensemble mean), and the largest internal variability is found in major carbon sink regions, that is, the 50-65°S band of the Southern Ocean, the North Pacific, and the North Atlantic. The MPI-ESM ensemble produces both positive and negative 10 year trends in the ocean carbon uptake in agreement with observational estimates. Negative decadal trends are projected to occur in the future under RCP4.5 scenario. Due to the large internal variability, the Southern Ocean and the North Pacific require the most ensemble members (more than 53 and 46, respectively) to reproduce the forced decadal trends. This number increases up to 79 in future decades as CO2 emission trajectory changes.

Grandparent-grandchild relationships: from families in contexts to families as contexts.

PubMed

Davey, Adam; Savla, Jyoti; Janke, Megan; Anderson, Shayne

2009-01-01

Relationships between grandparents and grandchildren provide an excellent framework for integrating family theory and family methodology. Systematic differences as a function of age, gender, life expectancy, and health as played out through generations suggest some topics are best studied by disentangling variability between and within families. Using data from 1,345 grandchildren (52% girls, mean age 13.69 years, range 9 to 20) reporting on 3,664 grandparents, we compare results obtained from studying grandparent-grandchild relationships individually and at the family level. Results suggest important predictors of relationship quality at the within-subject and between-subject levels. Future research should more carefully integrate each level into theory and design.

Sustainable management for rangelands in a variable climate: evidence and insights from northern Australia.

PubMed

O'Reagain, P J; Scanlan, J C

2013-03-01

Inter-annual rainfall variability is a major challenge to sustainable and productive grazing management on rangelands. In Australia, rainfall variability is particularly pronounced and failure to manage appropriately leads to major economic loss and environmental degradation. Recommended strategies to manage sustainably include stocking at long-term carrying capacity (LTCC) or varying stock numbers with forage availability. These strategies are conceptually simple but difficult to implement, given the scale and spatial heterogeneity of grazing properties and the uncertainty of the climate. This paper presents learnings and insights from northern Australia gained from research and modelling on managing for rainfall variability. A method to objectively estimate LTCC in large, heterogeneous paddocks is discussed, and guidelines and tools to tactically adjust stocking rates are presented. The possible use of seasonal climate forecasts (SCF) in management is also considered. Results from a 13-year grazing trial in Queensland show that constant stocking at LTCC was far more profitable and largely maintained land condition compared with heavy stocking (HSR). Variable stocking (VAR) with or without the use of SCF was marginally more profitable, but income variability was greater and land condition poorer than constant stocking at LTCC. Two commercial scale trials in the Northern Territory with breeder cows highlighted the practical difficulties of variable stocking and provided evidence that heavier pasture utilisation rates depress reproductive performance. Simulation modelling across a range of regions in northern Australia also showed a decline in resource condition and profitability under heavy stocking rates. Modelling further suggested that the relative value of variable v. constant stocking depends on stocking rate and land condition. Importantly, variable stocking may possibly allow slightly higher stocking rates without pasture degradation. Enterprise-level simulations run for breeder herds nevertheless show that poor economic performance can occur under constant stocking and even under variable stocking in some circumstances. Modelling and research results both suggest that a form of constrained flexible stocking should be applied to manage for climate variability. Active adaptive management and research will be required as future climate changes make managing for rainfall variability increasingly challenging.

The Predicted Influence of Climate Change on Lesser Prairie-Chicken Reproductive Parameters

PubMed Central

Grisham, Blake A.; Boal, Clint W.; Haukos, David A.; Davis, Dawn M.; Boydston, Kathy K.; Dixon, Charles; Heck, Willard R.

2013-01-01

The Southern High Plains is anticipated to experience significant changes in temperature and precipitation due to climate change. These changes may influence the lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) in positive or negative ways. We assessed the potential changes in clutch size, incubation start date, and nest survival for lesser prairie-chickens for the years 2050 and 2080 based on modeled predictions of climate change and reproductive data for lesser prairie-chickens from 2001–2011 on the Southern High Plains of Texas and New Mexico. We developed 9 a priori models to assess the relationship between reproductive parameters and biologically relevant weather conditions. We selected weather variable(s) with the most model support and then obtained future predicted values from climatewizard.org. We conducted 1,000 simulations using each reproductive parameter’s linear equation obtained from regression calculations, and the future predicted value for each weather variable to predict future reproductive parameter values for lesser prairie-chickens. There was a high degree of model uncertainty for each reproductive value. Winter temperature had the greatest effect size for all three parameters, suggesting a negative relationship between above-average winter temperature and reproductive output. The above-average winter temperatures are correlated to La Niña events, which negatively affect lesser prairie-chickens through resulting drought conditions. By 2050 and 2080, nest survival was predicted to be below levels considered viable for population persistence; however, our assessment did not consider annual survival of adults, chick survival, or the positive benefit of habitat management and conservation, which may ultimately offset the potentially negative effect of drought on nest survival. PMID:23874549

Direct and indirect climate controls predict heterogeneous early-mid 21st century wildfire burned area across western and boreal North America

PubMed Central

Falk, Donald A.; Westerling, Anthony L.; Swetnam, Thomas W.

2017-01-01

Predicting wildfire under future conditions is complicated by complex interrelated drivers operating across large spatial scales. Annual area burned (AAB) is a useful index of global wildfire activity. Current and antecedent seasonal climatic conditions, and the timing of snowpack melt, have been suggested as important drivers of AAB. As climate warms, seasonal climate and snowpack co-vary in intricate ways, influencing fire at continental and sub-continental scales. We used independent records of seasonal climate and snow cover duration (last date of permanent snowpack, LDPS) and cell-based Structural Equation Models (SEM) to separate direct (climatic) and indirect (snow cover) effects on relative changes in AAB under future climatic scenarios across western and boreal North America. To isolate seasonal climate variables with the greatest effect on AAB, we ran multiple regression models of log-transformed AAB on seasonal climate variables and LDPS. We used the results of multiple regressions to project future AAB using GCM ensemble climate variables and LDPS, and validated model predictions with recent AAB trends. Direct influences of spring and winter temperatures on AAB are larger and more widespread than the indirect effect mediated by changes in LDPS in most areas. Despite significant warming trends and reductions in snow cover duration, projected responses of AAB to early-mid 21st century are heterogeneous across the continent. Changes in AAB range from strongly increasing (one order of magnitude increases in AAB) to moderately decreasing (more than halving of baseline AAB). Annual wildfire area burned in coming decades is likely to be highly geographically heterogeneous, reflecting interacting regional and seasonal climate drivers of fire occurrence and spread. PMID:29244839

Direct and indirect climate controls predict heterogeneous early-mid 21st century wildfire burned area across western and boreal North America.

PubMed

Kitzberger, Thomas; Falk, Donald A; Westerling, Anthony L; Swetnam, Thomas W

2017-01-01

Predicting wildfire under future conditions is complicated by complex interrelated drivers operating across large spatial scales. Annual area burned (AAB) is a useful index of global wildfire activity. Current and antecedent seasonal climatic conditions, and the timing of snowpack melt, have been suggested as important drivers of AAB. As climate warms, seasonal climate and snowpack co-vary in intricate ways, influencing fire at continental and sub-continental scales. We used independent records of seasonal climate and snow cover duration (last date of permanent snowpack, LDPS) and cell-based Structural Equation Models (SEM) to separate direct (climatic) and indirect (snow cover) effects on relative changes in AAB under future climatic scenarios across western and boreal North America. To isolate seasonal climate variables with the greatest effect on AAB, we ran multiple regression models of log-transformed AAB on seasonal climate variables and LDPS. We used the results of multiple regressions to project future AAB using GCM ensemble climate variables and LDPS, and validated model predictions with recent AAB trends. Direct influences of spring and winter temperatures on AAB are larger and more widespread than the indirect effect mediated by changes in LDPS in most areas. Despite significant warming trends and reductions in snow cover duration, projected responses of AAB to early-mid 21st century are heterogeneous across the continent. Changes in AAB range from strongly increasing (one order of magnitude increases in AAB) to moderately decreasing (more than halving of baseline AAB). Annual wildfire area burned in coming decades is likely to be highly geographically heterogeneous, reflecting interacting regional and seasonal climate drivers of fire occurrence and spread.

A model for internalized stigma in children and adolescents with epilepsy.

PubMed

Austin, Joan K; Perkins, Susan M; Dunn, David W

2014-07-01

Perceptions of stigma in children and adolescents with epilepsy are associated with higher rates of mental health problems. The purpose of this study was to test relationships in a model that identified variables most strongly associated with perceptions of stigma in children and adolescents with epilepsy. Our ultimate goal is to develop a theoretical foundation for future intervention research by identifying variables associated with perceptions of stigma that are potentially amenable to psychosocial interventions. Participants were 173 children and adolescents with epilepsy who were between 9 and 14 years of age. Data were collected in telephone interviews. Stigma was measured using a self-report scale. Data were analyzed using structural equation modeling. Greater need for information and support, more fear and worry related to having epilepsy, greater seizure severity, and younger age were significantly associated with greater perceptions of stigma. Female gender, greater need for information and support, having at least one seizure in the past year, and lower self-efficacy for seizure management were significantly associated with more fear and worry related to having epilepsy. Findings suggest that perceptions of stigma are associated with two variables that are amenable to psychosocial interventions: fear and worry about having epilepsy and need for information and support. Future research should test the efficacy of interventions that reduce fear and worry, provide information about epilepsy, and reduce need for support. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Potential environmental impact of tidal energy extraction in the Pentland Firth at large spatial scales: results of a biogeochemical model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Molen, J.; Ruardij, P.; Greenwood, N.

2015-12-01

A model study was carried out of the potential large-scale (> 100 km) effects of marine renewable tidal energy generation in the Pentland Firth, using the 3-D hydrodynamics-biogeochemistry model GETM-ERSEM-BFM. A realistic 800 MW scenario and an exaggerated academic 8 GW scenario were considered. The realistic 800 MW scenario suggested minor effects on the tides, and undetectable effects on the biogeochemistry. The academic 8 GW scenario suggested effects would be observed over hundreds of kilometres away with changes of up to 10 % in tidal and ecosystem variables, in particular in a broad area in the vicinity of The Wash. There, waters became less turbid, and primary production increased with associated increases in faunal ecosystem variables. Moreover, a one-off increase in carbon storage in the sea bed was detected. Although these first results suggest positive environmental effects, further investigation is recommended of: (i) the residual circulation in the vicinity of the Pentland Firth and effects on larval dispersal using a higher resolution model, (ii) ecosystem effects with (future) state-of-the-art models if energy extraction substantially beyond 1 GW is planned.

HIV Treatment as Prevention: Modelling the Cost of Antiretroviral Treatment—State of the Art and Future Directions

PubMed Central

Meyer-Rath, Gesine; Over, Mead

2012-01-01

Policy discussions about the feasibility of massively scaling up antiretroviral therapy (ART) to reduce HIV transmission and incidence hinge on accurately projecting the cost of such scale-up in comparison to the benefits from reduced HIV incidence and mortality. We review the available literature on modelled estimates of the cost of providing ART to different populations around the world, and suggest alternative methods of characterising cost when modelling several decades into the future. In past economic analyses of ART provision, costs were often assumed to vary by disease stage and treatment regimen, but for treatment as prevention, in particular, most analyses assume a uniform cost per patient. This approach disregards variables that can affect unit cost, such as differences in factor prices (i.e., the prices of supplies and services) and the scale and scope of operations (i.e., the sizes and types of facilities providing ART). We discuss several of these variables, and then present a worked example of a flexible cost function used to determine the effect of scale on the cost of a proposed scale-up of treatment as prevention in South Africa. Adjusting previously estimated costs of universal testing and treatment in South Africa for diseconomies of small scale, i.e., more patients being treated in smaller facilities, adds 42% to the expected future cost of the intervention. PMID:22802731

Temporal discounting of monetary rewards in children and adolescents with ADHD and autism spectrum disorders.

PubMed

Demurie, Ellen; Roeyers, Herbert; Baeyens, Dieter; Sonuga-Barke, Edmund

2012-11-01

It has been difficult to differentiate attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and autism spectrum disorder (ASD) in terms of some aspects of their cognitive profile. While both show deficits in executive functions, it has been suggested that they may differ in their response to monetary reward. For instance, children with ADHD prefer small immediate over large delayed rewards more than typically developing controls. One explanation for this is that they discount the value of rewards to a higher degree as they are moved into the future. The current study investigated whether children with ADHD can be differentiated from those with ASD in terms of reward discounting. Thirty-nine children (8-16 y) with ADHD, 34 children with ASD and 46 typically developing controls performed a hypothetical monetary temporal discounting task. Participants were instructed to make repeated choices between small variable rewards (0, 5, 10, 20, 30€) delivered immediately and large rewards delivered after a variable delay. Children with ADHD but not ASD discounted future rewards at a higher rate than typically developing controls. These data confirm steeper discounting of future rewards in ADHD and add to a small but growing literature showing that the psychological profile of ADHD can be distinguished from that of ASD in terms of disrupted motivational processes. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Linking Inter-Individual Variability in Functional Brain Connectivity to Cognitive Ability in Elderly Individuals

PubMed Central

Li, Rui; Yin, Shufei; Zhu, Xinyi; Ren, Weicong; Yu, Jing; Wang, Pengyun; Zheng, Zhiwei; Niu, Ya-Nan; Huang, Xin; Li, Juan

2017-01-01

Increasing evidence suggests that functional brain connectivity is an important determinant of cognitive aging. However, the fundamental concept of inter-individual variations in functional connectivity in older individuals is not yet completely understood. It is essential to evaluate the extent to which inter-individual variability in connectivity impacts cognitive performance at an older age. In the current study, we aimed to characterize individual variability of functional connectivity in the elderly and to examine its significance to individual cognition. We mapped inter-individual variability of functional connectivity by analyzing whole-brain functional connectivity magnetic resonance imaging data obtained from a large sample of cognitively normal older adults. Our results demonstrated a gradual increase in variability in primary regions of the visual, sensorimotor, and auditory networks to specific subcortical structures, particularly the hippocampal formation, and the prefrontal and parietal cortices, which largely constitute the default mode and fronto-parietal networks, to the cerebellum. Further, the inter-individual variability of the functional connectivity correlated significantly with the degree of cognitive relevance. Regions with greater connectivity variability demonstrated more connections that correlated with cognitive performance. These results also underscored the crucial function of the long-range and inter-network connections in individual cognition. Thus, individual connectivity–cognition variability mapping findings may provide important information for future research on cognitive aging and neurocognitive diseases. PMID:29209203

Entropy of stable seasonal rainfall distribution in Kelantan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azman, Muhammad Az-zuhri; Zakaria, Roslinazairimah; Satari, Siti Zanariah; Radi, Noor Fadhilah Ahmad

2017-05-01

Investigating the rainfall variability is vital for any planning and management in many fields related to water resources. Climate change can gives an impact of water availability and may aggravate water scarcity in the future. Two statistics measurements which have been used by many researchers to measure the rainfall variability are variance and coefficient of variation. However, these two measurements are insufficient since rainfall distribution in Malaysia especially in the East Coast of Peninsular Malaysia is not symmetric instead it is positively skewed. In this study, the entropy concept is used as a tool to measure the seasonal rainfall variability in Kelantan and ten rainfall stations were selected. In previous studies, entropy of stable rainfall (ESR) and apportionment entropy (AE) were used to describe the rainfall amount variability during years for Australian rainfall data. In this study, the entropy of stable seasonal rainfall (ESSR) is suggested to model rainfall amount variability during northeast monsoon (NEM) and southwest monsoon (SWM) seasons in Kelantan. The ESSR is defined to measure the long-term average seasonal rainfall amount variability within a given year (1960-2012). On the other hand, the AE measures the rainfall amounts variability across the months. The results of ESSR and AE values show that stations in east coastline are more variable as compared to other stations inland for Kelantan rainfall. The contour maps of ESSR for Kelantan rainfall stations are also presented.

Using hypnosis to disrupt face processing: mirrored-self misidentification delusion and different visual media

PubMed Central

Connors, Michael H.; Barnier, Amanda J.; Coltheart, Max; Langdon, Robyn; Cox, Rochelle E.; Rivolta, Davide; Halligan, Peter W.

2014-01-01

Mirrored-self misidentification delusion is the belief that one’s reflection in the mirror is not oneself. This experiment used hypnotic suggestion to impair normal face processing in healthy participants and recreate key aspects of the delusion in the laboratory. From a pool of 439 participants, 22 high hypnotisable participants (“highs”) and 20 low hypnotisable participants were selected on the basis of their extreme scores on two separately administered measures of hypnotisability. These participants received a hypnotic induction and a suggestion for either impaired (i) self-face recognition or (ii) impaired recognition of all faces. Participants were tested on their ability to recognize themselves in a mirror and other visual media – including a photograph, live video, and handheld mirror – and their ability to recognize other people, including the experimenter and famous faces. Both suggestions produced impaired self-face recognition and recreated key aspects of the delusion in highs. However, only the suggestion for impaired other-face recognition disrupted recognition of other faces, albeit in a minority of highs. The findings confirm that hypnotic suggestion can disrupt face processing and recreate features of mirrored-self misidentification. The variability seen in participants’ responses also corresponds to the heterogeneity seen in clinical patients. An important direction for future research will be to examine sources of this variability within both clinical patients and the hypnotic model. PMID:24994973

Palaeoclimatic insights into future climate challenges.

PubMed

Alley, Richard B

2003-09-15

Palaeoclimatic data document a sensitive climate system subject to large and perhaps difficult-to-predict abrupt changes. These data suggest that neither the sensitivity nor the variability of the climate are fully captured in some climate-change projections, such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Summary for Policymakers. Because larger, faster and less-expected climate changes can cause more problems for economies and ecosystems, the palaeoclimatic data suggest the hypothesis that the future may be more challenging than anticipated in ongoing policy making. Large changes have occurred repeatedly with little net forcing. Increasing carbon dioxide concentration appears to have globalized deglacial warming, with climate sensitivity near the upper end of values from general circulation models (GCMs) used to project human-enhanced greenhouse warming; data from the warm Cretaceous period suggest a similarly high climate sensitivity to CO(2). Abrupt climate changes of the most recent glacial-interglacial cycle occurred during warm as well as cold times, linked especially to changing North Atlantic freshwater fluxes. GCMs typically project greenhouse-gas-induced North Atlantic freshening and circulation changes with notable but not extreme consequences; however, such models often underestimate the magnitude, speed or extent of past changes. Targeted research to assess model uncertainties would help to test these hypotheses.

When is affect variability bad for health? The association between affect variability and immune response to the influenza vaccination.

PubMed

Jenkins, Brooke N; Hunter, John F; Cross, Marie P; Acevedo, Amanda M; Pressman, Sarah D

2018-01-01

This study addresses methodological and theoretical questions about the association between affect and physical health. Specifically, we examine the role of affect variability and its interaction with mean levels of affect to predict antibody (Ab) levels in response to an influenza vaccination. Participants (N=83) received the vaccination and completed daily diary measures of affect four times a day for 13days. At one and four months post-vaccination, blood was collected from the participants to assess Ab levels. Findings indicate that affect variability and its interaction with mean levels of affect predict an individual's immune response. Those high in mean positive affect (PA) who had more PA variability were more likely to have a lower Ab response in comparison to those who had high mean PA and less PA variability. Although it did not interact with mean negative affect (NA), NA variability on its own was associated with Ab response, whereby those with less NA variability mounted a more robust immune response. Affect variability is related to immune response to an influenza vaccination and, in some cases, interacts with mean levels of affect. These oscillations in affective experiences are critical to consider in order to unpack the intricacies of how affect influences health. These findings suggest that future researchers should consider the important role of affect variability on physical health-relevant outcomes as well as examine the moderating effect of mean affect levels. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Relative Contribution of Monsoon Precipitation and Pumping to Changes in Groundwater Storage in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

A, A.; Gleeson, T. P.; Wada, Y.; Mishra, V.

2017-12-01

The availability and depletion of groundwater resources - a possible threat to food and water security - are impacted by both pumping and climate variability, although the relative importance of these two drivers is rarely quantified. Here we show that long-term change in the monsoon precipitation is a major driver of groundwater storage variability in most parts of India either directly by changing recharge or indirectly by changing abstraction. GRACE and observation well data show that groundwater storage has declined in north India with a rate of 2 cm/year and increased in the south India by 1 to 2 cm/year during the period of 2002-2013. A large fraction of total variability in groundwater storage is influenced by precipitation in northcentral and southern India. Groundwater storage variability in the northwestern India is mainly explained by variability in abstraction for irrigation, which is influenced by precipitation. Declines in precipitation in north India is linked with the Indian Ocean warming, suggesting a previously unrecognised teleconnection between ocean temperatures and groundwater storage. These results have strong implications for management of groundwater resources under current and future climate conditions in India.

Population viability of Pediocactus bradyi (Cactaceae) in a changing climate.

PubMed

Shryock, Daniel F; Esque, Todd C; Hughes, Lee

2014-11-01

A key question concerns the vulnerability of desert species adapted to harsh, variable climates to future climate change. Evaluating this requires coupling long-term demographic models with information on past and projected future climates. We investigated climatic drivers of population growth using a 22-yr demographic model for Pediocactus bradyi, an endangered cactus in northern Arizona. We used a matrix model to calculate stochastic population growth rates (λs) and the relative influences of life-cycle transitions on population growth. Regression models linked population growth with climatic variability, while stochastic simulations were used to (1) understand how predicted increases in drought frequency and extreme precipitation would affect λs, and (2) quantify variability in λs based on temporal replication of data. Overall λs was below unity (0.961). Population growth was equally influenced by fecundity and survival and significantly correlated with increased annual precipitation and higher winter temperatures. Stochastic simulations increasing the probability of drought and extreme precipitation reduced λs, but less than simulations increasing the probability of drought alone. Simulations varying the temporal replication of data suggested 14 yr were required for accurate λs estimates. Pediocactus bradyi may be vulnerable to increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events, particularly drought. Biotic interactions resulting in low survival during drought years outweighed increased seedling establishment following heavy precipitation. Climatic extremes beyond historical ranges of variability may threaten rare desert species with low population growth rates and therefore high susceptibility to stochastic events. © 2014 Botanical Society of America, Inc.

Climatic extremes improve predictions of spatial patterns of tree species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zimmermann, N.E.; Yoccoz, N.G.; Edwards, T.C.; Meier, E.S.; Thuiller, W.; Guisan, Antoine; Schmatz, D.R.; Pearman, P.B.

2009-01-01

Understanding niche evolution, dynamics, and the response of species to climate change requires knowledge of the determinants of the environmental niche and species range limits. Mean values of climatic variables are often used in such analyses. In contrast, the increasing frequency of climate extremes suggests the importance of understanding their additional influence on range limits. Here, we assess how measures representing climate extremes (i.e., interannual variability in climate parameters) explain and predict spatial patterns of 11 tree species in Switzerland. We find clear, although comparably small, improvement (+20% in adjusted D2, +8% and +3% in cross-validated True Skill Statistic and area under the receiver operating characteristics curve values) in models that use measures of extremes in addition to means. The primary effect of including information on climate extremes is a correction of local overprediction and underprediction. Our results demonstrate that measures of climate extremes are important for understanding the climatic limits of tree species and assessing species niche characteristics. The inclusion of climate variability likely will improve models of species range limits under future conditions, where changes in mean climate and increased variability are expected.

Metacognitive monitoring during category learning: how success affects future behaviour.

PubMed

Doyle, Mario E; Hourihan, Kathleen L

2016-10-01

The purpose of this study was to see how people perceive their own learning during a category learning task, and whether their perceptions matched their performance. In two experiments, participants were asked to learn natural categories, of both high and low variability, and make category learning judgements (CLJs). Variability was manipulated by varying the number of exemplars and the number of times each exemplar was presented within each category. Experiment 1 showed that participants were generally overconfident in their knowledge of low variability families, suggesting that they considered repetition to be more useful for learning than it actually was. Also, a correct trial, for a particular category, was more likely to occur if the previous trial was correct. CLJs had the largest increase when a trial was correct following an incorrect trial and the largest decrease when an incorrect trial followed a correct trial. Experiment 2 replicated these results, but also demonstrated that global CLJ ratings showed the same bias towards repetition. These results indicate that we generally identify success as being the biggest determinant of learning, but do not always recognise cues, such as variability, that enhance learning.

The pharmacist Aggregate Demand Index to explain changing pharmacist demand over a ten-year period.

PubMed

Knapp, Katherine K; Shah, Bijal M; Barnett, Mitchell J

2010-12-15

To describe Aggregate Demand Index (ADI) trends from 1999-2010; to compare ADI time trends to concurrent data for US unemployment levels, US entry-level pharmacy graduates, and US retail prescription growth rate; and to determine which variables were significant predictors of ADI. Annual ADI data (dependent variable) were analyzed against annual unemployment rates, annual number of pharmacy graduates, and annual prescription growth rate (independent variables). ADI data trended toward lower demand levels for pharmacists since late 2006, paralleling the US economic downturn. National ADI data were most highly correlated with unemployment (p < 0.001), then graduates (p < 0.006), then prescription growth rate (p < 0.093). A hierarchical model with the 3 variables was significant (p = 0.019), but only unemployment was a significant ADI predictor. Unemployment and ADI also were significantly related at the regional, division, and state levels. The ADI is strongly linked to US unemployment rates. The relationship suggests that an improving economy might coincide with increased pharmacist demand. Predictable increases in future graduates and other factors support revisiting the modeling process as new data accumulate.

Selection of single chain antibody fragments binding to the extracellular domain of 4-1BB receptor by phage display technology.

PubMed

Bagheri, Salman; Yousefi, Mehdi; Safaie Qamsari, Elmira; Riazi-Rad, Farhad; Abolhassani, Mohsen; Younesi, Vahid; Dorostkar, Ruhollah; Movassaghpour, Ali Akbar; Sharifzadeh, Zahra

2017-03-01

The 4-1BB is a surface glycoprotein that pertains to the tumor necrosis factor-receptor family. There is compelling evidence suggesting important roles for 4-1BB in the immune response, including cell activation and proliferation and also cytokine induction. Because of encouraging results of different agonistic monoclonal antibodies against 4-1BB in the treatment of cancer, infectious, and autoimmune diseases, 4-1BB has been suggested as an attractive target for immunotherapy. In this study, single chain variable fragment phage display libraries, Tomlinson I+J, were screened against specific synthetic oligopeptides (peptides I and II) designed from 4-1BB extracellular domain. Five rounds of panning led to selection of four 4-1BB specific single chain variable fragments (PI.12, PI.42, PII.16, and PII.29) which showed specific reaction to relevant peptides in phage enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. The selected clones were successfully expressed in Escherichia coli Rosetta-gami 2, and their expression was confirmed by western blot analysis. Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay experiments indicated that these antibodies were able to specifically recognize 4-1BB without any cross-reactivity with other antigens. Flow cytometry analysis demonstrated an acceptable specific binding of the single chain variable fragments to 4-1BB expressed on CCRF-CEM cells, while no binding was observed with an irrelevant antibody. Anti-4-1BB single chain variable fragments enhanced surface CD69 expression and interleukin-2 production in stimulated CCRF-CEM cells which confirmed the agonistic effect of the selected single chain variable fragments. The data from this study have provided a rationale for further experiments involving the biological functions of anti-4-1BB single chain variable fragments in future studies.

Does internal climate variability overwhelm climate change signals in streamflow? The upper Po and Rhone basin case studies.

PubMed

Fatichi, S; Rimkus, S; Burlando, P; Bordoy, R

2014-09-15

Projections of climate change effects in streamflow are increasingly required to plan water management strategies. These projections are however largely uncertain due to the spread among climate model realizations, internal climate variability, and difficulties in transferring climate model results at the spatial and temporal scales required by catchment hydrology. A combination of a stochastic downscaling methodology and distributed hydrological modeling was used in the ACQWA project to provide projections of future streamflow (up to year 2050) for the upper Po and Rhone basins, respectively located in northern Italy and south-western Switzerland. Results suggest that internal (stochastic) climate variability is a fundamental source of uncertainty, typically comparable or larger than the projected climate change signal. Therefore, climate change effects in streamflow mean, frequency, and seasonality can be masked by natural climatic fluctuations in large parts of the analyzed regions. An exception to the overwhelming role of stochastic variability is represented by high elevation catchments fed by glaciers where streamflow is expected to be considerably reduced due to glacier retreat, with consequences appreciable in the main downstream rivers in August and September. Simulations also identify regions (west upper Rhone and Toce, Ticino river basins) where a strong precipitation increase in the February to April period projects streamflow beyond the range of natural climate variability during the melting season. This study emphasizes the importance of including internal climate variability in climate change analyses, especially when compared to the limited uncertainty that would be accounted for by few deterministic projections. The presented results could be useful in guiding more specific impact studies, although design or management decisions should be better based on reliability and vulnerability criteria as suggested by recent literature. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Non-Dependent and Dependent Daily Cannabis Users Differ in Mental Health but Not Prospective Memory Ability

PubMed Central

Braidwood, Ruth; Mansell, Samantha; Waldron, Jon; Rendell, Peter G.; Kamboj, Sunjeev K.; Curran, H. Valerie

2018-01-01

Research suggests that daily cannabis users have impaired memory for past events, but it is not clear whether they are also impaired in prospective memory (PM) for future events. The present study examined PM in daily cannabis users who were either dependent (n = 18) or non-dependent (n = 18), and compared them with non-using controls (n = 18). The effect of future event simulation (FES) on PM performance was also examined. Participants were matched across groups on age, gender, and highest level of education. The virtual week (VW) was used to objectively assess PM abilities, both at baseline and following FES. Other measures used were: cannabis use variables, immediate and delayed prose recall, phonemic and category fluency, spot-the-word test (premorbid intelligence), Beck Depression Inventory, Beck Anxiety Inventory, and a measure of schizotypy (Oxford-Liverpool Inventory of Feelings and Experiences: unusual experiences subscale). No group differences were found in PM performance on the VW, and FES did not improve PM performance in any group. Dependent cannabis users scored higher on depression, anxiety, and schizotypy than both other groups with non-dependent cannabis users scoring at a similar level to controls. There were no group differences in alcohol use. Findings suggest that when carefully matched on baseline variables, and not differing in premorbid IQ or alcohol use, young, near-daily cannabis users do not differ from non-using controls in PM performance. PMID:29636705

Artificial pancreas (AP) clinical trial participants' acceptance of future AP technology.

PubMed

Bevier, Wendy C; Fuller, Serena M; Fuller, Ryan P; Rubin, Richard R; Dassau, Eyal; Doyle, Francis J; Jovanovič, Lois; Zisser, Howard C

2014-09-01

Artificial pancreas (AP) systems are currently an active field of diabetes research. This pilot study examined the attitudes of AP clinical trial participants toward future acceptance of the technology, having gained firsthand experience. After possible influencers of AP technology adoption were considered, a 34-question questionnaire was developed. The survey assessed current treatment satisfaction, dimensions of clinical trial participant motivation, and variables of the technology acceptance model (TAM). Forty-seven subjects were contacted to complete the survey. The reliability of the survey scales was tested using Cronbach's α. The relationship of the factors to the likelihood of AP technology adoption was explored using regression analysis. Thirty-six subjects (76.6%) completed the survey. Of the respondents, 86.1% were either highly likely or likely to adopt the technology once available. Reliability analysis of the survey dimensions revealed good internal consistency, with scores of >0.7 for current treatment satisfaction, convenience (motivation), personal health benefit (motivation), perceived ease of use (TAM), and perceived usefulness (TAM). Linear modeling showed that future acceptance of the AP was significantly associated with TAM and the motivation variables of convenience plus the individual item benefit to others (R(2)=0.26, P=0.05). When insulin pump and continuous glucose monitor use were added, the model significance improved (R(2)=0.37, P=0.02). This pilot study demonstrated that individuals with direct AP technology experience expressed high likelihood of future acceptance. Results support the factors of personal benefit, convenience, perceived usefulness, and perceived ease of use as reliable scales that suggest system adoption in this highly motivated patient population.

How will precipitation change in extratropical cyclones as the planet warms? Insights from a large initial condition climate model ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yettella, Vineel; Kay, Jennifer E.

2017-09-01

The extratropical precipitation response to global warming is investigated within a 30-member initial condition climate model ensemble. As in observations, modeled cyclonic precipitation contributes a large fraction of extratropical precipitation, especially over the ocean and in the winter hemisphere. When compared to present day, the ensemble projects increased cyclone-associated precipitation under twenty-first century business-as-usual greenhouse gas forcing. While the cyclone-associated precipitation response is weaker in the near-future (2016-2035) than in the far-future (2081-2100), both future periods have similar patterns of response. Though cyclone frequency changes are important regionally, most of the increased cyclone-associated precipitation results from increased within-cyclone precipitation. Consistent with this result, cyclone-centric composites show statistically significant precipitation increases in all cyclone sectors. Decomposition into thermodynamic (mean cyclone water vapor path) and dynamic (mean cyclone wind speed) contributions shows that thermodynamics explains 92 and 95% of the near-future and far-future within-cyclone precipitation increases respectively. Surprisingly, the influence of dynamics on future cyclonic precipitation changes is negligible. In addition, the forced response exceeds internal variability in both future time periods. Overall, this work suggests that future cyclonic precipitation changes will result primarily from increased moisture availability in a warmer world, with secondary contributions from changes in cyclone frequency and cyclone dynamics.

Crime Seasonality: Examining the Temporal Fluctuations of Property Crime in Cities With Varying Climates.

PubMed

Linning, Shannon J; Andresen, Martin A; Brantingham, Paul J

2017-12-01

This study investigates whether crime patterns fluctuate periodically throughout the year using data containing different property crime types in two Canadian cities with differing climates. Using police report data, a series of ordinary least squares (OLS; Vancouver, British Columbia) and negative binomial (Ottawa, Ontario) regressions were employed to examine the corresponding temporal patterns of property crime in Vancouver (2003-2013) and Ottawa (2006-2008). Moreover, both aggregate and disaggregate models were run to examine whether different weather and temporal variables had a distinctive impact on particular offences. Overall, results suggest that cities that experience greater variations in weather throughout the year have more distinct increases of property offences in the summer months and that different climate variables affect certain crime types, thus advocating for disaggregate analysis in the future.

Gene-environment interaction and suicidal behavior.

PubMed

Roy, Alec; Sarchiopone, Marco; Carli, Vladimir

2009-07-01

Studies have increasingly shown that gene-environment interactions are important in psychiatry. Suicidal behavior is a major public health problem. Suicide is generally considered to be a multi-determined act involving various areas of proximal and distal risk. Genetic risk factors are estimated to account for approximately 30% to 40% of the variance in suicidal behavior. In this article, the authors review relevant studies concerning the interaction between the serotonin transporter gene and environmental variables as a model of gene-environment interactions that may have an impact on suicidal behavior. The findings reviewed here suggest that there may be meaningful interactions between distal and proximal suicide risk factors that may amplify the risk of suicidal behavior. Future studies of suicidal behavior should examine both genetic and environmental variables and examine for gene-environment interactions.

Reasoning about variables in 11 to 18 year olds: informal, schooled and formal expression in learning about functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ayalon, Michal; Watson, Anne; Lerman, Steve

2016-09-01

This study examines expressions of reasoning by some higher achieving 11 to 18 year-old English students responding to a survey consisting of function tasks developed in collaboration with their teachers. We report on 70 students, 10 from each of English years 7-13. Iterative and comparative analysis identified capabilities and difficulties of students and suggested conjectures concerning links between the affordances of the tasks, the curriculum, and students' responses. The paper focuses on five of the survey tasks and highlights connections between informal and formal expressions of reasoning about variables in learning. We introduce the notion of `schooled' expressions of reasoning, neither formal nor informal, to emphasise the role of the formatting tools introduced in school that shape future understanding and reasoning.

Theory of Self- vs. Externally-Regulated LearningTM: Fundamentals, Evidence, and Applicability.

PubMed

de la Fuente-Arias, Jesús

2017-01-01

The Theory of Self- vs. Externally-Regulated Learning TM has integrated the variables of SRL theory, the DEDEPRO model, and the 3P model. This new Theory has proposed: (a) in general, the importance of the cyclical model of individual self-regulation (SR) and of external regulation stemming from the context (ER), as two different and complementary variables, both in combination and in interaction; (b) specifically, in the teaching-learning context, the relevance of different types of combinations between levels of self-regulation (SR) and of external regulation (ER) in the prediction of self-regulated learning (SRL), and of cognitive-emotional achievement. This review analyzes the assumptions, conceptual elements, empirical evidence, benefits and limitations of SRL vs. ERL Theory . Finally, professional fields of application and future lines of research are suggested.

Surface Variability of Short-wavelength Radiation and Temperature on Exoplanets around M Dwarfs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Xin; Tian, Feng; Wang, Yuwei

2017-03-10

It is a common practice to use 3D General Circulation Models (GCM) with spatial resolution of a few hundred kilometers to simulate the climate of Earth-like exoplanets. The enhanced albedo effect of clouds is especially important for exoplanets in the habitable zones around M dwarfs that likely have fixed substellar regions and substantial cloud coverage. Here, we carry out mesoscale model simulations with 3 km spatial resolution driven by the initial and boundary conditions in a 3D GCM and find that it could significantly underestimate the spatial variability of both the incident short-wavelength radiation and the temperature at planet surface.more » Our findings suggest that mesoscale models with cloud-resolving capability be considered for future studies of exoplanet climate.« less

Future vegetation ecosystem response to warming climate over the Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bao, Y.; Gao, Y.; Wang, Y.

2017-12-01

The amplified vegetation response to climate variability has been found over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) in recent decades. In this study, the potential impacts of 21st century climate change on the vegetation ecosystem over the TP are assessed based on the dynamic vegetation outputs of models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), and the sensitivity of the TP vegetation in response to warming climate was investigated. Models project a continuous and accelerating greening in future, especially in the eastern TP, which closely associates with the plant type upgrade due to the pronouncing warming in growing season.Vegetation leaf area index (LAI) increase well follows the global warming, suggesting the warming climate instead of co2 fertilization controlls the future TP plant growth. The warming spring may advance the start of green-up day and extend the growing season length. More carbon accumulation in vegetation and soil will intensify the TP carbon cycle and will keep it as a carbon sink in future. Keywords: Leaf Area Index (LAI), Climate Change, Global Dynamic Vegetation Models (DGVMs), CMIP5, Tibetan Plateau (TP)

Projecting coral reef futures under global warming and ocean acidification.

PubMed

Pandolfi, John M; Connolly, Sean R; Marshall, Dustin J; Cohen, Anne L

2011-07-22

Many physiological responses in present-day coral reefs to climate change are interpreted as consistent with the imminent disappearance of modern reefs globally because of annual mass bleaching events, carbonate dissolution, and insufficient time for substantial evolutionary responses. Emerging evidence for variability in the coral calcification response to acidification, geographical variation in bleaching susceptibility and recovery, responses to past climate change, and potential rates of adaptation to rapid warming supports an alternative scenario in which reef degradation occurs with greater temporal and spatial heterogeneity than current projections suggest. Reducing uncertainty in projecting coral reef futures requires improved understanding of past responses to rapid climate change; physiological responses to interacting factors, such as temperature, acidification, and nutrients; and the costs and constraints imposed by acclimation and adaptation.

Precipitation and carbon-water coupling jointly control the interannual variability of global land gross primary production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yao; Xiao, Xiangming; Guanter, Luis; Zhou, Sha; Ciais, Philippe; Joiner, Joanna; Sitch, Stephen; Wu, Xiaocui; Nabel, Julia; Dong, Jinwei; Kato, Etsushi; Jain, Atul K.; Wiltshire, Andy; Stocker, Benjamin D.

2016-12-01

Carbon uptake by terrestrial ecosystems is increasing along with the rising of atmospheric CO2 concentration. Embedded in this trend, recent studies suggested that the interannual variability (IAV) of global carbon fluxes may be dominated by semi-arid ecosystems, but the underlying mechanisms of this high variability in these specific regions are not well known. Here we derive an ensemble of gross primary production (GPP) estimates using the average of three data-driven models and eleven process-based models. These models are weighted by their spatial representativeness of the satellite-based solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF). We then use this weighted GPP ensemble to investigate the GPP variability for different aridity regimes. We show that semi-arid regions contribute to 57% of the detrended IAV of global GPP. Moreover, in regions with higher GPP variability, GPP fluctuations are mostly controlled by precipitation and strongly coupled with evapotranspiration (ET). This higher GPP IAV in semi-arid regions is co-limited by supply (precipitation)-induced ET variability and GPP-ET coupling strength. Our results demonstrate the importance of semi-arid regions to the global terrestrial carbon cycle and posit that there will be larger GPP and ET variations in the future with changes in precipitation patterns and dryland expansion.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Balaguru, Karthik; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Yoon, Jin-Ho

Despite the strong dependence of the Power Dissipation Index (PDI), which is a measure of the intensity of Tropical Cyclone (TC) activity, on tropical sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), the variations in PDI are not completely explained by SST. Here we show, using an analysis of a string of observational data sets, that the variability of the thermocline depth (TD) in the east Pacific exerts a significant degree of control on the variability of PDI in that region. On average, a deep thermocline with a larger reservoir of heat favors TC intensification by reducing SST cooling while a shallow thermocline with amore » smaller heat reservoir promotes enhanced SST cooling that contributes to TC decay. At interannual time scales, the variability of basin-mean TD accounts for nearly 30% of the variability in the PDI during the TC season. Also, about 20% of the interannual variability in the east Pacific basin-mean TD is due to the El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a dominant climate signal in this region. This study suggests that a better understanding of the factors governing the interannual variability of the TD conditions in the east Pacific and how they may change over time, may lead to an improved projection of future east Pacific TC activity.« less

Precipitation and Carbon-Water Coupling Jointly Control the Interannual Variability of Global Land Gross Primary Production

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhang, Yao; Xiao, Xiangming; Guanter, Luis; Zhou, Sha; Ciais, Philippe; Joiner, Joanna; Sitch, Stephen; Wu, Xiaocui; Nabel, Julian; Dong, Jinwei;

Spatial and temporal variability in rates of landsliding in seismically active mountain ranges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parker, R.; Petley, D.; Rosser, N.; Densmore, A.; Gunasekera, R.; Brain, M.

2012-04-01

Where earthquake and precipitation driven disasters occur in steep, mountainous regions, landslides often account for a large proportion of the associated damage and losses. This research addresses spatial and temporal variability in rates of landslide occurrence in seismically active mountain ranges as a step towards developing better regional scale prediction of losses in such events. In the first part of this paper we attempt to explain reductively the variability in spatial rates of landslide occurrence, using data from five major earthquakes. This is achieved by fitting a regression-based conditional probability model to spatial probabilities of landslide occurrence, using as predictor variables proxies for spatial patterns of seismic ground motion and modelled hillslope stability. A combined model for all earthquakes performs well in hindcasting spatial probabilities of landslide occurrence as a function of readily-attainable spatial variables. We present validation of the model and demonstrate the extent to which it may be applied globally to derive landslide probabilities for future earthquakes. In part two we examine the temporal behaviour of rates of landslide occurrence. This is achieved through numerical modelling to simulate the behaviour of a hypothetical landscape. The model landscape is composed of hillslopes that continually weaken, fail and reset in response to temporally-discrete forcing events that represent earthquakes. Hillslopes with different geometries require different amounts of weakening to fail, such that they fail and reset at different temporal rates. Our results suggest that probabilities of landslide occurrence are not temporally constant, but rather vary with time, irrespective of changes in forcing event magnitudes or environmental conditions. Various parameters influencing the magnitude and temporal patterns of this variability are identified, highlighting areas where future research is needed. This model has important implications for landslide hazard and risk analysis in mountain areas as existing techniques usually assume that susceptibility to failure does not change with time.

A synthesis of the theories and concepts of early human evolution.

PubMed

Maslin, Mark A; Shultz, Susanne; Trauth, Martin H

2015-03-05

Current evidence suggests that many of the major events in hominin evolution occurred in East Africa. Hence, over the past two decades, there has been intensive work undertaken to understand African palaeoclimate and tectonics in order to put together a coherent picture of how the environment of Africa has varied over the past 10 Myr. A new consensus is emerging that suggests the unusual geology and climate of East Africa created a complex, environmentally very variable setting. This new understanding of East African climate has led to the pulsed climate variability hypothesis that suggests the long-term drying trend in East Africa was punctuated by episodes of short alternating periods of extreme humidity and aridity which may have driven hominin speciation, encephalization and dispersals out of Africa. This hypothesis is unique as it provides a conceptual framework within which other evolutionary theories can be examined: first, at macro-scale comparing phylogenetic gradualism and punctuated equilibrium; second, at a more focused level of human evolution comparing allopatric speciation, aridity hypothesis, turnover pulse hypothesis, variability selection hypothesis, Red Queen hypothesis and sympatric speciation based on sexual selection. It is proposed that each one of these mechanisms may have been acting on hominins during these short periods of climate variability, which then produce a range of different traits that led to the emergence of new species. In the case of Homo erectus (sensu lato), it is not just brain size that changes but life history (shortened inter-birth intervals, delayed development), body size and dimorphism, shoulder morphology to allow thrown projectiles, adaptation to long-distance running, ecological flexibility and social behaviour. The future of evolutionary research should be to create evidence-based meta-narratives, which encompass multiple mechanisms that select for different traits leading ultimately to speciation.

A synthesis of the theories and concepts of early human evolution

PubMed Central

Maslin, Mark A.; Shultz, Susanne; Trauth, Martin H.

2015-01-01

Current evidence suggests that many of the major events in hominin evolution occurred in East Africa. Hence, over the past two decades, there has been intensive work undertaken to understand African palaeoclimate and tectonics in order to put together a coherent picture of how the environment of Africa has varied over the past 10 Myr. A new consensus is emerging that suggests the unusual geology and climate of East Africa created a complex, environmentally very variable setting. This new understanding of East African climate has led to the pulsed climate variability hypothesis that suggests the long-term drying trend in East Africa was punctuated by episodes of short alternating periods of extreme humidity and aridity which may have driven hominin speciation, encephalization and dispersals out of Africa. This hypothesis is unique as it provides a conceptual framework within which other evolutionary theories can be examined: first, at macro-scale comparing phylogenetic gradualism and punctuated equilibrium; second, at a more focused level of human evolution comparing allopatric speciation, aridity hypothesis, turnover pulse hypothesis, variability selection hypothesis, Red Queen hypothesis and sympatric speciation based on sexual selection. It is proposed that each one of these mechanisms may have been acting on hominins during these short periods of climate variability, which then produce a range of different traits that led to the emergence of new species. In the case of Homo erectus (sensu lato), it is not just brain size that changes but life history (shortened inter-birth intervals, delayed development), body size and dimorphism, shoulder morphology to allow thrown projectiles, adaptation to long-distance running, ecological flexibility and social behaviour. The future of evolutionary research should be to create evidence-based meta-narratives, which encompass multiple mechanisms that select for different traits leading ultimately to speciation. PMID:25602068

Long-term Records of Pacific Salmon Abundance From Sediment Core Analysis: Relationships to Past Climatic Change, and Implications for the Future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Finney, B.

2002-12-01

The response of Pacific salmon to future climatic change is uncertain, but will have large impacts on the economy, culture and ecology of the North Pacific Rim. Relationships between sockeye salmon populations and climatic change can be determined by analyzing sediment cores from lakes where sockeye return to spawn. Sockeye salmon return to their natal lake system to spawn and subsequently die following 2 - 3 years of feeding in the North Pacific Ocean. Sockeye salmon abundance can be reconstructed from stable nitrogen isotope analysis of lake sediment cores as returning sockeye transport significant quantities of N, relatively enriched in N-15, from the ocean to freshwater systems. Temporal changes in the input of salmon-derived N, and hence salmon abundance, can be quantified through downcore analysis of N isotopes. Reconstructions of sockeye salmon abundance from lakes in several regions of Alaska show similar temporal patterns, with variability occurring on decadal to millennial timescales. Over the past 2000 years, shifts in sockeye salmon abundance far exceed the historical decadal-scale variability. A decline occurred from about 100 BC - 800 AD, but salmon were consistently more abundant 1200 - 1900 AD. Declines since 1900 AD coincide with the period of extensive commercial fishing. Correspondence between these records and paleoclimatic data suggest that changes in salmon abundance are related to large scale climatic changes over the North Pacific. For example, the increase in salmon abundance c.a. 1200 AD corresponds to a period of glacial advance in southern Alaska, and a shift to drier conditions in western North America. Although the regionally coherent patterns in reconstructed salmon abundance are consistent with the hypothesis that climate is an important driver, the relationships do not always follow patterns observed in the 20th century. A main feature of recorded climate variability in this region is the alternation between multi-decade periods of above and below average strength of the Aleutian Low pressure system. During periods of stronger low pressure, sea surface temperature anomalies are warm in the northeast Pacific and cool in the central and northwest Pacific, a condition referred to as the positive phase of the Pacific Interdecadal Oscillation (PDO). Historically, during positive phases of the PDO Alaska salmon abundance is generally high. Consistent with this pattern, records of reconstructed sockeye salmon generally show higher abundance during warm periods over the past 300 years. However, the long-term trend suggests generally higher abundance during the cooler Little Ice Age, which southern Alaska glacial records suggest occurred between about 1200 - 1900 AD. The apparent complexity of salmon-climate relationships may be due to several factors. Long-term paleoclimate records from this region suggest additional modes of North Pacific climate variability, relative to the PDO. In addition, data on primary and secondary production in the Northeast Pacific Ocean indicates that climatic forcing has a direct impact on lower trophic levels, which subsequently affects salmon production. Thus records of ocean productivity, which are currently unavailable, may provide a mechanistic linkage between climate change and salmon abundance. The long-term perspective provided by the paleodata suggest that historical observations provide a limited understanding of how Pacific salmon respond to climatic change, and point to important areas of research necessary to better predict future responses.

OBSERVING CORONAL NANOFLARES IN ACTIVE REGION MOSS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Testa, Paola; DeLuca, Ed; Golub, Leon

2013-06-10

The High-resolution Coronal Imager (Hi-C) has provided Fe XII 193A images of the upper transition region moss at an unprecedented spatial ({approx}0.''3-0.''4) and temporal (5.5 s) resolution. The Hi-C observations show in some moss regions variability on timescales down to {approx}15 s, significantly shorter than the minute-scale variability typically found in previous observations of moss, therefore challenging the conclusion of moss being heated in a mostly steady manner. These rapid variability moss regions are located at the footpoints of bright hot coronal loops observed by the Solar Dynamics Observatory/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly in the 94 A channel, and by the Hinode/X-Raymore » Telescope. The configuration of these loops is highly dynamic, and suggestive of slipping reconnection. We interpret these events as signatures of heating events associated with reconnection occurring in the overlying hot coronal loops, i.e., coronal nanoflares. We estimate the order of magnitude of the energy in these events to be of at least a few 10{sup 23} erg, also supporting the nanoflare scenario. These Hi-C observations suggest that future observations at comparable high spatial and temporal resolution, with more extensive temperature coverage, are required to determine the exact characteristics of the heating mechanism(s).« less

Modeled ecohydrological responses to climate change at seven small watersheds in the northeastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pourmokhtarian, Afshin; Driscoll, Charles T.; Campbell, John L.; Hayhoe, Katharine; Stoner, Anne M. K.; Adams, Mary Beth; Burns, Douglas; Fernandez, Ivan; Mitchell, Myron J.; Shanley, James B.

2017-01-01

A cross-site analysis was conducted on seven diverse, forested watersheds in the northeastern United States to evaluate hydrological responses (evapotranspiration, soil moisture, seasonal and annual streamflow, and water stress) to projections of future climate. We used output from four atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs; CCSM4, HadGEM2-CC, MIROC5, and MRI-CGCM3) included in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, coupled with two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 8.5 and 4.5). The coarse resolution AOGCMs outputs were statistically downscaled using an asynchronous regional regression model to provide finer resolution future climate projections as inputs to the deterministic dynamic ecosystem model PnET-BGC. Simulation results indicated that projected warmer temperatures and longer growing seasons in the northeastern United States are anticipated to increase evapotranspiration across all sites, although invoking CO2 effects on vegetation (growth enhancement and increases in water use efficiency (WUE)) diminish this response. The model showed enhanced evapotranspiration resulted in drier growing season conditions across all sites and all scenarios in the future. Spruce-fir conifer forests have a lower optimum temperature for photosynthesis, making them more susceptible to temperature stress than more tolerant hardwood species, potentially giving hardwoods a competitive advantage in the future. However, some hardwood forests are projected to experience seasonal water stress, despite anticipated increases in precipitation, due to the higher temperatures, earlier loss of snow packs, longer growing seasons, and associated water deficits. Considering future CO2effects on WUE in the model alleviated water stress across all sites. Modeled streamflow responses were highly variable, with some sites showing significant increases in annual water yield, while others showed decreases. This variability in streamflow responses poses a challenge to water resource management in the northeastern United States. Our analyses suggest that dominant vegetation type and soil type are important attributes in determining future hydrological responses to climate change.

Modeled ecohydrological responses to climate change at seven small watersheds in the northeastern United States.

PubMed

Pourmokhtarian, Afshin; Driscoll, Charles T; Campbell, John L; Hayhoe, Katharine; Stoner, Anne M K; Adams, Mary Beth; Burns, Douglas; Fernandez, Ivan; Mitchell, Myron J; Shanley, James B

2017-02-01

A cross-site analysis was conducted on seven diverse, forested watersheds in the northeastern United States to evaluate hydrological responses (evapotranspiration, soil moisture, seasonal and annual streamflow, and water stress) to projections of future climate. We used output from four atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs; CCSM4, HadGEM2-CC, MIROC5, and MRI-CGCM3) included in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, coupled with two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 8.5 and 4.5). The coarse resolution AOGCMs outputs were statistically downscaled using an asynchronous regional regression model to provide finer resolution future climate projections as inputs to the deterministic dynamic ecosystem model PnET-BGC. Simulation results indicated that projected warmer temperatures and longer growing seasons in the northeastern United States are anticipated to increase evapotranspiration across all sites, although invoking CO 2 effects on vegetation (growth enhancement and increases in water use efficiency (WUE)) diminish this response. The model showed enhanced evapotranspiration resulted in drier growing season conditions across all sites and all scenarios in the future. Spruce-fir conifer forests have a lower optimum temperature for photosynthesis, making them more susceptible to temperature stress than more tolerant hardwood species, potentially giving hardwoods a competitive advantage in the future. However, some hardwood forests are projected to experience seasonal water stress, despite anticipated increases in precipitation, due to the higher temperatures, earlier loss of snow packs, longer growing seasons, and associated water deficits. Considering future CO 2 effects on WUE in the model alleviated water stress across all sites. Modeled streamflow responses were highly variable, with some sites showing significant increases in annual water yield, while others showed decreases. This variability in streamflow responses poses a challenge to water resource management in the northeastern United States. Our analyses suggest that dominant vegetation type and soil type are important attributes in determining future hydrological responses to climate change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Role of Internal Variability in Surface Temperature and Precipitation Change Uncertainties over India.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Achutarao, K. M.; Singh, R.

2017-12-01

There are various sources of uncertainty in model projections of future climate change. These include differences in the formulation of climate models, internal variability, and differences in scenarios. Internal variability in a climate system represents the unforced change due to the chaotic nature of the climate system and is considered irreducible (Deser et al., 2012). Internal variability becomes important at regional scales where it can dominate forced changes. Therefore it needs to be carefully assessed in future projections. In this study we segregate the role of internal variability in the future temperature and precipitation projections over the Indian region. We make use of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project - phase 5 (CMIP5; Taylor et al., 2012) database containing climate model simulations carried out by various modeling centers around the world. While the CMIP5 experimental protocol recommended producing numerous ensemble members, only a handful of the modeling groups provided multiple realizations. Having a small number of realizations is a limitation in producing a quantification of internal variability. We therefore exploit the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE; Kay et al., 2014) dataset which contains a 40 member ensemble of a single model- CESM1 (CAM5) to explore the role of internal variability in Future Projections. Surface air temperature and precipitation change projections over regional and sub-regional scale are analyzed under the IPCC emission scenario (RCP8.5) for different seasons and homogeneous climatic zones over India. We analyze the spread in projections due to internal variability in the CESM-LE and CMIP5 datasets over these regions.

Using a Bayesian network to predict barrier island geomorphologic characteristics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gutierrez, Ben; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Thieler, E. Robert; Turecek, Aaron

2015-01-01

Quantifying geomorphic variability of coastal environments is important for understanding and describing the vulnerability of coastal topography, infrastructure, and ecosystems to future storms and sea level rise. Here we use a Bayesian network (BN) to test the importance of multiple interactions between barrier island geomorphic variables. This approach models complex interactions and handles uncertainty, which is intrinsic to future sea level rise, storminess, or anthropogenic processes (e.g., beach nourishment and other forms of coastal management). The BN was developed and tested at Assateague Island, Maryland/Virginia, USA, a barrier island with sufficient geomorphic and temporal variability to evaluate our approach. We tested the ability to predict dune height, beach width, and beach height variables using inputs that included longer-term, larger-scale, or external variables (historical shoreline change rates, distances to inlets, barrier width, mean barrier elevation, and anthropogenic modification). Data sets from three different years spanning nearly a decade sampled substantial temporal variability and serve as a proxy for analysis of future conditions. We show that distinct geomorphic conditions are associated with different long-term shoreline change rates and that the most skillful predictions of dune height, beach width, and beach height depend on including multiple input variables simultaneously. The predictive relationships are robust to variations in the amount of input data and to variations in model complexity. The resulting model can be used to evaluate scenarios related to coastal management plans and/or future scenarios where shoreline change rates may differ from those observed historically.

Model-based choices involve prospective neural activity

PubMed Central

Doll, Bradley B.; Duncan, Katherine D.; Simon, Dylan A.; Shohamy, Daphna; Daw, Nathaniel D.

2015-01-01

Decisions may arise via “model-free” repetition of previously reinforced actions, or by “model-based” evaluation, which is widely thought to follow from prospective anticipation of action consequences using a learned map or model. While choices and neural correlates of decision variables sometimes reflect knowledge of their consequences, it remains unclear whether this actually arises from prospective evaluation. Using functional MRI and a sequential reward-learning task in which paths contained decodable object categories, we found that humans’ model-based choices were associated with neural signatures of future paths observed at decision time, suggesting a prospective mechanism for choice. Prospection also covaried with the degree of model-based influences on neural correlates of decision variables, and was inversely related to prediction error signals thought to underlie model-free learning. These results dissociate separate mechanisms underlying model-based and model-free evaluation and support the hypothesis that model-based influences on choices and neural decision variables result from prospection. PMID:25799041

(abstract) Short Time Period Variations in Jupiter's Synchrotron Radiation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bolton, S. J.; Klein, M. J.; Gulkis, S.; Foster, R.; Heiles, C.; Pater, I. de

1994-01-01

The long term time variability of Jupiter's synchrotron radiation on yearly time scales has been established for some time. For many years, theorists have speculated about the effects variations in the solar wind, solar flux, Io, the Io torus, and Jupiter's magnetic field have on the ultra-relativistic electron population responsible for the emission. Early observational results suggested the additional possibility of a short term time variability, on timescales of days to weeks. In 1989 a program designed to investigate the existence of short term time variability using the 85 foot Hat Creek radio telescope operating at 1400 MHz was initiated. The availability of a dedicated telescope provided the opportunity, for the first time, to obtain numerous observations over the full Jupiter rotation period. These and future observations will enable two important studies, characterization and confirmation of possible short term variations, and the investigation of the stability of Jupiter's synchrotron emission beaming curve. Analysis of Hat Creek observations and early results from the Maryland Point Naval research Laboratory will be presented.

Potential cognitive endophenotypes in multigenerational families: segregating ADHD from a genetic isolate

PubMed Central

Pineda, David A.; Lopera, Francisco; Puerta, Isabel C.; Trujillo-Orrego, Natalia; Aguirre-Acevedo, Daniel C.; Hincapié-Henao, Liliana; Arango, Clara P.; Acosta, Maria T.; Holzinger, Sandra I.; Palacio, Juan David; Pineda-Alvarez, Daniel E.; Velez, Jorge I.; Martinez, Ariel F.; Lewis, John E.

2014-01-01

Endophenotypes are neurobiological markers cosegregating and associated with illness. These biomarkers represent a promising strategy to dissect ADHD biological causes. This study was aimed at contrasting the genetics of neuropsychological tasks for intelligence, attention, memory, visual-motor skills, and executive function in children from multigenerational and extended pedigrees that cluster ADHD in a genetic isolate. In a sample of 288 children and adolescents, 194 (67.4%) ADHD affected and 94 (32.6%) unaffected, a battery of neuropsychological tests was utilized to assess the association between genetic transmission and the ADHD phenotype. We found significant differences between affected and unaffected children in the WISC block design, PIQ and FSIQ, continuous vigilance, and visual-motor skills, and these variables exhibited a significant heritability. Given the association between these neuropsychological variables and ADHD, and also the high genetic component underlying their transmission in the studied pedigrees, we suggest that these variables be considered as potential cognitive endophenotypes suitable as quantitative trait loci (QTLs) in future studies of linkage and association. PMID:21779842

Ocean-atmosphere forcing of centennial hydroclimatic variability in the Pacific Northwest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Steinman, Byron A.; Abbott, Mark B.; Mann, Michael E.; Ortiz, Joseph D.; Feng, Song; Pompeani, David P.; Stansell, Nathan D.; Anderson, Lesleigh; Finney, Bruce P.; Bird, Broxton W.

2014-01-01

Reconstructing centennial timescale hydroclimate variability during the late Holocene is critically important for understanding large-scale patterns of drought and their relationship with climate dynamics. We present sediment oxygen isotope records spanning the last two millennia from 10 lakes, as well as climate model simulations, indicating that the Little Ice Age was dry relative to the Medieval Climate Anomaly in much of the Pacific Northwest of North America. This pattern is consistent with observed associations between the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Northern Annular Mode and drought as well as with proxy-based reconstructions of Pacific ocean-atmosphere variations over the past 1000 years. The large amplitude of centennial variability indicated by the lake data suggests that regional hydroclimate is characterized by longer-term shifts in ENSO-like dynamics, and that an improved understanding of the centennial timescale relationship between external forcing and drought conditions is necessary for projecting future hydroclimatic conditions in western North America.

Seasonal variation in sports participation.

PubMed

Schüttoff, Ute; Pawlowski, Tim

2018-02-01

This study explores indicators describing socio-demographics, sports participation characteristics and motives which are associated with variation in sports participation across seasons. Data were drawn from the German Socio-Economic Panel which contains detailed information on the sports behaviour of adults in Germany. Overall, two different measures of seasonal variation are developed and used as dependent variables in our regression models. The first variable measures the coefficient of (seasonal) variation in sport-related energy expenditure per week. The second variable measures whether activity drops below the threshold as defined by the World Health Organization (WHO). Results suggest that the organisational setting, the intensity and number of sports practised, and the motive for participation are strongly correlated with the variation measures used. For example, both, participation in a sports club and a commercial facility, are associated with reduced seasonal variation and a significantly higher probability of participating at a volume above the WHO threshold across all seasons. These findings give some impetus for policymaking and the planning of sports programmes as well as future research directions.

Delta Scuti Variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Handler, Gerald

2009-09-01

We review recent research on Delta Scuti stars from an observer's viewpoint. First, some signposts helping to find the way through the Delta Scuti jungle are placed. Then, some problems in studying individual pulsators in the framework of asteroseismology are given before a view on how the study of these variables has benefited (or not) from past and present high-precision asteroseismic space missions is presented. Some possible pitfalls in the analysis of data with a large dynamical range in pulsational amplitudes are pointed out, and a strategy to optimize the outcome of asteroseismic studies of Delta Scuti stars is suggested. We continue with some views on ``hybrid'' pulsators and interesting individual High Amplitude Delta Scuti stars, and then take a look on Delta Scuti stars in stellar systems of several different kinds. Recent results on pre-main sequence Delta Scuti stars are discussed as are questions related to the instability strip of these variables. Finally, some remarkable new theoretical results are highlighted before, instead of a set of classical conclusions, questions to be solved in the future, are raised.

Drought effects on US maize and soybean production: spatiotemporal patterns and historical changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zipper, Samuel C.; Qiu, Jiangxiao; Kucharik, Christopher J.

2016-09-01

Maximizing agricultural production on existing cropland is one pillar of meeting future global food security needs. To close crop yield gaps, it is critical to understand how climate extremes such as drought impact yield. Here, we use gridded, daily meteorological data and county-level annual yield data to quantify meteorological drought sensitivity of US maize and soybean production from 1958 to 2007. Meteorological drought negatively affects crop yield over most US crop-producing areas, and yield is most sensitive to short-term (1-3 month) droughts during critical development periods from July to August. While meteorological drought is associated with 13% of overall yield variability, substantial spatial variability in drought effects and sensitivity exists, with central and southeastern US becoming increasingly sensitive to drought over time. Our study illustrates fine-scale spatiotemporal patterns of drought effects, highlighting where variability in crop production is most strongly associated with drought, and suggests that management strategies that buffer against short-term water stress may be most effective at sustaining long-term crop productivity.

Effects of short-term variability of meteorological variables on soil temperature in permafrost regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beer, Christian; Porada, Philipp; Ekici, Altug; Brakebusch, Matthias

2018-03-01

Effects of the short-term temporal variability of meteorological variables on soil temperature in northern high-latitude regions have been investigated. For this, a process-oriented land surface model has been driven using an artificially manipulated climate dataset. Short-term climate variability mainly impacts snow depth, and the thermal diffusivity of lichens and bryophytes. These impacts of climate variability on insulating surface layers together substantially alter the heat exchange between atmosphere and soil. As a result, soil temperature is 0.1 to 0.8 °C higher when climate variability is reduced. Earth system models project warming of the Arctic region but also increasing variability of meteorological variables and more often extreme meteorological events. Therefore, our results show that projected future increases in permafrost temperature and active-layer thickness in response to climate change will be lower (i) when taking into account future changes in short-term variability of meteorological variables and (ii) when representing dynamic snow and lichen and bryophyte functions in land surface models.

Uncertainties in the projection of species distributions related to general circulation models

PubMed Central

Goberville, Eric; Beaugrand, Grégory; Hautekèete, Nina-Coralie; Piquot, Yves; Luczak, Christophe

2015-01-01

Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) are increasingly used by ecologists to project species potential future distribution. However, the application of such models may be challenging, and some caveats have already been identified. While studies have generally shown that projections may be sensitive to the ENM applied or the emission scenario, to name just a few, the sensitivity of ENM-based scenarios to General Circulation Models (GCMs) has been often underappreciated. Here, using a multi-GCM and multi-emission scenario approach, we evaluated the variability in projected distributions under future climate conditions. We modeled the ecological realized niche (sensu Hutchinson) and predicted the baseline distribution of species with contrasting spatial patterns and representative of two major functional groups of European trees: the dwarf birch and the sweet chestnut. Their future distributions were then projected onto future climatic conditions derived from seven GCMs and four emissions scenarios using the new Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) developed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR5 report. Uncertainties arising from GCMs and those resulting from emissions scenarios were quantified and compared. Our study reveals that scenarios of future species distribution exhibit broad differences, depending not only on emissions scenarios but also on GCMs. We found that the between-GCM variability was greater than the between-RCP variability for the next decades and both types of variability reached a similar level at the end of this century. Our result highlights that a combined multi-GCM and multi-RCP approach is needed to better consider potential trajectories and uncertainties in future species distributions. In all cases, between-GCM variability increases with the level of warming, and if nothing is done to alleviate global warming, future species spatial distribution may become more and more difficult to anticipate. When future species spatial distributions are examined, we propose to use a large number of GCMs and RCPs to better anticipate potential trajectories and quantify uncertainties. PMID:25798227

An overview of current applications, challenges, and future trends in distributed process-based models in hydrology

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fatichi, Simone; Vivoni, Enrique R.; Odgen, Fred L; Ivanov, Valeriy Y; Mirus, Benjamin B.; Gochis, David; Downer, Charles W; Camporese, Matteo; Davison, Jason H; Ebel, Brian A.; Jones, Norm; Kim, Jongho; Mascaro, Giuseppe; Niswonger, Richard G.; Restrepo, Pedro; Rigon, Riccardo; Shen, Chaopeng; Sulis, Mauro; Tarboton, David

2016-01-01

Process-based hydrological models have a long history dating back to the 1960s. Criticized by some as over-parameterized, overly complex, and difficult to use, a more nuanced view is that these tools are necessary in many situations and, in a certain class of problems, they are the most appropriate type of hydrological model. This is especially the case in situations where knowledge of flow paths or distributed state variables and/or preservation of physical constraints is important. Examples of this include: spatiotemporal variability of soil moisture, groundwater flow and runoff generation, sediment and contaminant transport, or when feedbacks among various Earth’s system processes or understanding the impacts of climate non-stationarity are of primary concern. These are situations where process-based models excel and other models are unverifiable. This article presents this pragmatic view in the context of existing literature to justify the approach where applicable and necessary. We review how improvements in data availability, computational resources and algorithms have made detailed hydrological simulations a reality. Avenues for the future of process-based hydrological models are presented suggesting their use as virtual laboratories, for design purposes, and with a powerful treatment of uncertainty.

Workplace, psychosocial factors, and depressive symptoms among working people with arthritis: a longitudinal study.

PubMed

Li, Xin; Gignac, Monique A M; Anis, Aslam H

2006-09-01

To examine the role of demographic, illness-related, workplace support, workplace activity limitations, arthritis-related work changes, and psychosocial factors in predicting subsequent depressive symptoms among employed people with arthritis. In a prospective study, 366 employed individuals with arthritis were recruited from Toronto, Canada. Respondents completed a structured questionnaire assessing demographic, disease-related factors, workplace support, and employment-related transitions, as well as psychosocial variables at 2 timepoints 18 months apart. Depression was assessed using the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale. Hierarchical multiple regression was used for analyses. Individuals with greater education reported significantly less depression. Lower workplace support and greater workplace activity limitations were significantly associated with future depressive symptoms. No relationship was found between work transitions and later depression, but more work changes were strongly associated with concurrent depressive symptoms. An association was also found between greater pain catastrophizing and future depressive symptoms. Our results highlight the need to assess the influence of work-related changes, workplace support, and psychosocial variables on depressive symptoms among people with arthritis. These findings suggest that workplace interventions should address not only ways to reduce workplace activity limitations, but also ways to better manage emotional distress related to working with arthritis.

Long-Term Variability in o Ceti and Other Mira Variables: Signs of Supergranular Convection?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Templeton, Matthew R.; Karovska, Margarita

2009-09-01

We describe our study of long-term variability of o Ceti (Mira A), the prototype of the Mira-type pulsating stars. Our study was originally undertaken to search for coherent long-period variability, but the results of our analysis didn't uncover this. However, we detected a low-frequency ``red noise'' in the Fourier spectrum of the o Ceti century-long light curve. We have since found similar behavior in other Miras and pulsating giant stars and have begun a study of a large sample of Mira variables. Similar red noise has been previously detected in red supergiants and attributed to supergranular convection. Its presence in Miras suggests the phenomenon may be ubiquitous in cool giant pulsators. These results support high-angular resolution observations of Miras and supergiants showing asymmetries in their surface brightness distributions, which may be due to large supergranular convection cells. Theoretical modeling, and numerical simulations of pulsation processes in late-type giants and supergiants should therefore take into account the effects of deep convection and large supergranular structures, which in turn may provide important insights into the behavior of Miras and other giant and supergiant pulsators. In this work, we summarize our results for o Ceti, present preliminary results of our broader study of Mira variables, and discuss how the results of this study may be used by future studies of AGB variables.

Family context and externalizing correlates of childhood animal cruelty in adjudicated delinquents.

PubMed

Walters, Glenn D; Noon, Alexandria

2015-05-01

The purpose of this study was to determine whether childhood animal cruelty is primarily a feature of family context or of externalizing behavior. Twenty measures of family context and proactive (fearlessness) and reactive (disinhibition) externalizing behavior were correlated with the retrospective accounts of childhood animal cruelty provided by 1,354 adjudicated delinquents. A cross-sectional analysis revealed that all 20 family context, proactive externalizing, and reactive externalizing variables correlated significantly with animal cruelty. Prospective analyses showed that when the animal cruelty variable was included in a regression equation with the 10 family context variables (parental arguing and fighting, parental drug use, parental hostility, and parental knowledge and monitoring of offspring behavior) or in a regression equation with the five reactive externalizing variables (interpersonal hostility, secondary psychopathy, weak impulse control, weak suppression of aggression, and short time horizon), it continued to predict future violent and income (property + drug) offending. The animal cruelty variable no longer predicted offending, however, when included in a regression equation with the five proactive externalizing variables (early onset behavioral problems, primary psychopathy, moral disengagement, positive outcome expectancies for crime, and lack of consideration for others). These findings suggest that while animal cruelty correlates with a wide range of family context and externalizing variables, it may serve as a marker of violent and nonviolent offending by virtue of its position on the proactive subdimension of the externalizing spectrum. © The Author(s) 2014.

Improving media message interpretation processing skills to promote healthy decision making about substance use: the effects of the middle school media ready curriculum.

PubMed

Kupersmidt, Janis B; Scull, Tracy M; Benson, Jessica W

2012-01-01

The Media Ready Program was designed as a middle school, media literacy education, preventive intervention program to improve adolescents' media literacy skills and reduce their intention to use alcohol or tobacco products. In a short-term efficacy trial, schools in North Carolina were randomly assigned to conditions (Media Ready: n = 214; control: n = 198). Boys in the Media Ready group reported significantly less intention to use alcohol in the future than did boys in the control group. Also, students in the Media Ready group who had used tobacco in the past reported significantly less intention to use tobacco in the future than did students in the control group who had previously used tobacco. Multilevel multiple mediation analyses suggest that the set of logical analysis Message Interpretation Processing variables mediated the program's effect on students' intentions to use alcohol or tobacco in the future.

Changes in nasal airflow and heat transfer correlate with symptom improvement after surgery for nasal obstruction.

PubMed

Kimbell, J S; Frank, D O; Laud, Purushottam; Garcia, G J M; Rhee, J S

2013-10-18

Surgeries to correct nasal airway obstruction (NAO) often have less than desirable outcomes, partly due to the absence of an objective tool to select the most appropriate surgical approach for each patient. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models can be used to investigate nasal airflow, but variables need to be identified that can detect surgical changes and correlate with patient symptoms. CFD models were constructed from pre- and post-surgery computed tomography scans for 10 NAO patients showing no evidence of nasal cycling. Steady-state inspiratory airflow, nasal resistance, wall shear stress, and heat flux were computed for the main nasal cavity from nostrils to posterior nasal septum both bilaterally and unilaterally. Paired t-tests indicated that all CFD variables were significantly changed by surgery when calculated on the most obstructed side, and that airflow, nasal resistance, and heat flux were significantly changed bilaterally as well. Moderate linear correlations with patient-reported symptoms were found for airflow, heat flux, unilateral allocation of airflow, and unilateral nasal resistance as a fraction of bilateral nasal resistance when calculated on the most obstructed nasal side, suggesting that these variables may be useful for evaluating the efficacy of nasal surgery objectively. Similarity in the strengths of these correlations suggests that patient-reported symptoms may represent a constellation of effects and that these variables should be tracked concurrently during future virtual surgery planning. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Glutamatergic model psychoses: prediction error, learning, and inference.

PubMed

Corlett, Philip R; Honey, Garry D; Krystal, John H; Fletcher, Paul C

2011-01-01

Modulating glutamatergic neurotransmission induces alterations in conscious experience that mimic the symptoms of early psychotic illness. We review studies that use intravenous administration of ketamine, focusing on interindividual variability in the profundity of the ketamine experience. We will consider this individual variability within a hypothetical model of brain and cognitive function centered upon learning and inference. Within this model, the brains, neural systems, and even single neurons specify expectations about their inputs and responding to violations of those expectations with new learning that renders future inputs more predictable. We argue that ketamine temporarily deranges this ability by perturbing both the ways in which prior expectations are specified and the ways in which expectancy violations are signaled. We suggest that the former effect is predominantly mediated by NMDA blockade and the latter by augmented and inappropriate feedforward glutamatergic signaling. We suggest that the observed interindividual variability emerges from individual differences in neural circuits that normally underpin the learning and inference processes described. The exact source for that variability is uncertain, although it is likely to arise not only from genetic variation but also from subjects' previous experiences and prior learning. Furthermore, we argue that chronic, unlike acute, NMDA blockade alters the specification of expectancies more profoundly and permanently. Scrutinizing individual differences in the effects of acute and chronic ketamine administration in the context of the Bayesian brain model may generate new insights about the symptoms of psychosis; their underlying cognitive processes and neurocircuitry.

Assessment of future impacts of potential climate change scenarios on aquifer recharge in continental Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulido-Velazquez, David; Collados-Lara, Antonio-Juan; Alcalá, Francisco J.

2017-04-01

This research proposes and applies a method to assess potential impacts of future climatic scenarios on aquifer rainfall recharge in wide and varied regions. The continental Spain territory was selected to show the application. The method requires to generate future series of climatic variables (precipitation, temperature) in the system to simulate them within a previously calibrated hydrological model for the historical data. In a previous work, Alcalá and Custodio (2014) used the atmospheric chloride mass balance (CMB) method for the spatial evaluation of average aquifer recharge by rainfall over the whole of continental Spain, by assuming long-term steady conditions of the balance variables. The distributed average CMB variables necessary to calculate recharge were estimated from available variable-length data series of variable quality and spatial coverage. The CMB variables were regionalized by ordinary kriging at the same 4976 nodes of a 10 km x 10 km grid. Two main sources of uncertainty affecting recharge estimates (given by the coefficient of variation, CV), induced by the inherent natural variability of the variables and from mapping were segregated. Based on these stationary results we define a simple empirical rainfall-recharge model. We consider that spatiotemporal variability of rainfall and temperature are the most important climatic feature and variables influencing potential aquifer recharge in natural regime. Changes in these variables can be important in the assessment of future potential impacts of climatic scenarios over spatiotemporal renewable groundwater resource. For instance, if temperature increases, actual evapotranspitration (EA) will increases reducing the available water for others groundwater balance components, including the recharge. For this reason, instead of defining an infiltration rate coefficient that relates precipitation (P) and recharge we propose to define a transformation function that allows estimating the spatial distribution of recharge (both average value and its uncertainty) from the difference in P and EA in each area. A complete analysis of potential short-term (2016-2045) future climate scenarios in continental Spain has been performed by considering different sources of uncertainty. It is based on the historical climatic data for the period 1976-2005 and the climatic models simulations (for the control [1976-2005] and future scenarios [2016-2045]) performed in the frame of the CORDEX EU project. The most pessimistic emission scenario (RCP8.5) has been considered. For the RCP8.5 scenario we have analyzed the time series generated by simulating with 5 Regional Climatic models (CCLM4-8-17, RCA4, HIRHAM5, RACMO22E, and WRF331F) nested to 4 different General Circulation Models (GCMs). Two different conceptual approaches (bias correction and delta change techniques) have been applied to generate potential future climate scenarios from these data. Different ensembles of obtained time series have been proposed to obtain more representative scenarios by considering all the simulations or only those providing better approximations to the historical statistics based on a multicriteria analysis. This was a step to analyze future potential impacts on the aquifer recharge by simulating them within a rainfall-recharge model. This research has been supported by the CGL2013-48424-C2-2-R (MINECO) and the PMAFI/06/14 (UCAM) projects.

Military health system efficiency: a review of history and recommendations for the future.

PubMed

Coppola, Nicholas; Satterwhite, Robin; Fulton, Lawrence V; Shanderson, Laurie L; Pasupathy, Rubini

2012-06-01

This article reviews the history of measuring military medical health care efficiency. No single approved definition or uniform framework has ever been offered or suggested defining military medical treatment facility efficiency over the last 225 years within the Department of Defense. The purpose of this article is to consolidate much of the existing research on the latent variable of military medical efficiency over the last two centuries, and to provide health care leaders a framework for understanding past and current practices in measuring efficiency in the military health care setting.

A Framework for the Specificity of Addictions

PubMed Central

Sussman, Steve; Leventhal, Adam; Bluthenthal, Ricky N.; Freimuth, Marilyn; Forster, Myriam; Ames, Susan L.

2011-01-01

Research over the last two decades suggests that a wide range of substance and behavioral addictions may serve similar functions. Yet, co-occurrence of addictions has only been reported among a minority of addicts. “Addiction specificity” pertains to a phenomenon in which one pattern of addictive behaviors may be acquired whereas another is not. This paper presents the PACE model as a framework which might help explain addiction specificity. Pragmatics, attraction, communication, and expectation (PACE) variables are described, which may help give some direction to future research needs in this arena. PMID:21909314

Emergency cesarean section and the 30-minute rule: definitions.

PubMed

Schauberger, Charles W; Chauhan, Suneet P

2009-03-01

We explored the role that lack of a standard definition and heterogeneity in patient selection criteria in the literature might have on the apparent inability to routinely begin an emergency cesarean section in less than 30 minutes. A review of the literature on emergency cesarean delivery was performed. Although there are some similarities in definitions and the criteria used for patient selection in multiple studies, the variability in the definitions could be responsible for some of the apparent timeliness performance deficiency in the literature. A standard definition and directions for future research are suggested.

Death anxiety as a predictor of future time orientation among individuals with spinal cord injuries.

PubMed

Martz, E; Livneh, H

2003-09-16

The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between death anxiety and future time orientation among individuals who sustained spinal cord injuries (SCI). Participants were 317 individuals with SCI, of whom 57.4% were US veterans. Data were obtained by means of mailed questionnaires and included responses to the Death Anxiety Scale (DAS), the Future Time Orientation (FTOS) measure, as well as information on participants' personal and disability-related characteristics. A hierarchical multiple regression analysis was conducted to examine the influence of a set of demographic variables, followed by a set of disability-related variables, and finally two factorially-derived measures of death anxiety (denial of death and distressed awareness of death) on future time orientation. Two disability-related variables (pain level and existence of pressure ulcers) and one of the two death anxiety measures (distressed awareness of death) significantly predicted future time orientation. A post-hoc analysis, adding depression as a predictor, was also significant, indicating that an increased level of depression uniquely contributed to a truncated future time orientation. Distressed anxiety and depression may be important factors affecting goals and plans of people with SCI. Future research should attempt to clarify the intricate relationships among negative affectivity, future time orientation, and psychosocial adaptation to SCI.

SST Patterns, Atmospheric Variability, and Inferred Sensitivities in the CMIP5 Model Archive

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marvel, K.; Pincus, R.; Schmidt, G. A.

2017-12-01

An emerging consensus suggests that global mean feedbacks to increasing temperature are not constant in time. If feedbacks become more positive in the future, the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) inferred from recent observed global energy budget constraints is likely to be biased low. Time-varying feedbacks are largely tied to evolving sea-surface temperature patterns. In particular, recent anomalously cool conditions in the tropical Pacific may have triggered feedbacks that are not reproduced in equilibrium simulations where the tropical Pacific and Southern Ocean have had time to warm. Here, we use AMIP and CMIP5 historical simulations to explore the ECS that may be inferred over the recent historical period. We find that in all but one CMIP5 model, the feedbacks triggered by observed SST patterns are significantly less positive than those arising from historical simulations in which SST patterns are allowed to evolve unconstrained. However, there are substantial variations in feedbacks even when the SST pattern is held fixed, suggesting that atmospheric and land variability contribute to uncertainty in the estimates of ECS obtained from recent observations of the global energy budget.

Working memory and arithmetic calculation in children: the contributory roles of processing speed, short-term memory, and reading.

PubMed

Berg, Derek H

2008-04-01

The cognitive underpinnings of arithmetic calculation in children are noted to involve working memory; however, cognitive processes related to arithmetic calculation and working memory suggest that this relationship is more complex than stated previously. The purpose of this investigation was to examine the relative contributions of processing speed, short-term memory, working memory, and reading to arithmetic calculation in children. Results suggested four important findings. First, processing speed emerged as a significant contributor of arithmetic calculation only in relation to age-related differences in the general sample. Second, processing speed and short-term memory did not eliminate the contribution of working memory to arithmetic calculation. Third, individual working memory components--verbal working memory and visual-spatial working memory--each contributed unique variance to arithmetic calculation in the presence of all other variables. Fourth, a full model indicated that chronological age remained a significant contributor to arithmetic calculation in the presence of significant contributions from all other variables. Results are discussed in terms of directions for future research on working memory in arithmetic calculation.

Mindfulness and heart rate variability in individuals with high and low generalized anxiety symptoms.

PubMed

Mankus, Annette M; Aldao, Amelia; Kerns, Caroline; Mayville, Elena Wright; Mennin, Douglas S

2013-07-01

Mindfulness has been incorporated into several treatment approaches for psychopathology. Despite the popularity of this approach, relatively few empirical investigations have examined the relationship between mindfulness and autonomic indicators of flexible emotion regulation, such as heart rate variability (HRV). Generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) has been associated with both low levels of mindfulness and HRV. In this investigation, we examined the relationship between HRV and mindfulness in the context of elevated generalized anxiety (GA) symptoms--an analog for GAD--by examining whether GA level moderated this relationship. HRV was collected while participants completed self-report measures of GA and trait mindfulness. GA level interacted with mindfulness in the prediction of HRV; in the high GA, but not low GA group, mindfulness was positively associated with HRV. This suggests that for individuals with high GA, mindfulness may enhance parasympathetic influences on the heart rate. We address the limitations of the current investigation and suggest avenues for future research on mindfulness-related changes in tonic and phasic HRV over time. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Goals and potential career advancement of licensed practical nurses in Japan.

PubMed

Ikeda, Mari; Inoue, Katsuya; Kamibeppu, Kiyoko

2008-10-01

To investigate the effects of personal and professional variables on career advancement intentions of working Licensed Practical Nurses (LPNs). In Japan, two levels of professional nursing licensures, the LPN and the registered nurse (RN), are likely to be integrated in the future. Therefore, it is important to know the career advancement intentions of LPNs. Questionnaires were sent to a sample of 356 LPNs. Analysis of variance (anova) and discriminative analysis were used. We found that those who had a positive image of LPNs along with a positive image of RNs were identified as showing interest in career advancement. The results of anova showed that age had a negative effect; however, discriminative analysis suggested that age is not as significant compared with other variables. Our results indicate that the 'image of RNs', and 'role-acceptance factors' have an effect on career advancement intentions of LPNs. Our results suggest that Nursing Managers should create a supportive working environment where the LPN would feel encouraged to carry out the nursing role, thereby creating a positive image of nursing in general which would lead to career motivation and pursuing RN status.

Increased gait variability may not imply impaired stride-to-stride control of walking in healthy older adults: Winner: 2013 Gait and Clinical Movement Analysis Society Best Paper Award.

PubMed

Dingwell, Jonathan B; Salinas, Mandy M; Cusumano, Joseph P

2017-06-01

Older adults exhibit increased gait variability that is associated with fall history and predicts future falls. It is not known to what extent this increased variability results from increased physiological noise versus a decreased ability to regulate walking movements. To "walk", a person must move a finite distance in finite time, making stride length (L n ) and time (T n ) the fundamental stride variables to define forward walking. Multiple age-related physiological changes increase neuromotor noise, increasing gait variability. If older adults also alter how they regulate their stride variables, this could further exacerbate that variability. We previously developed a Goal Equivalent Manifold (GEM) computational framework specifically to separate these causes of variability. Here, we apply this framework to identify how both young and high-functioning healthy older adults regulate stepping from each stride to the next. Healthy older adults exhibited increased gait variability, independent of walking speed. However, despite this, these healthy older adults also concurrently exhibited no differences (all p>0.50) from young adults either in how their stride variability was distributed relative to the GEM or in how they regulated, from stride to stride, either their basic stepping variables or deviations relative to the GEM. Using a validated computational model, we found these experimental findings were consistent with increased gait variability arising solely from increased neuromotor noise, and not from changes in stride-to-stride control. Thus, age-related increased gait variability likely precedes impaired stepping control. This suggests these changes may in turn precede increased fall risk. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Very high energy gamma ray astronomy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grindlay, J. E.

1976-01-01

Recent results in ground based very high energy gamma ray astronomy are reviewed. The various modes of the atmospheric Cerenkov technique are described, and the importance of cosmic ray rejection methods is stressed. The positive detections of the Crab pulsar that suggest a very flat spectrum and time-variable pulse phase are discussed. Observations of other pulsars (particularly Vela) suggest these features may be general. Evidence that a 4.8 hr modulated effect was detected from Cyg X-3 is strengthened in that the exact period originally proposed agrees well with a recent determination of the X-ray period. The southern sky observations are reviewed, and the significance of the detection of an active galaxy (NGC 5128) is considered for source models and future observations.

The Effects of Budget, Delegation, and Other Variables on the Future of School Nursing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tetuan, Theresa M.; Akagi, Cynthia G.

2004-01-01

The purpose of this exploratory research study was to survey Kansas school nurses to determine the impact of budget, delegation, and other variables on the future of school nursing. Issues of education and certification status, educational budget, delegation, school nurse-to-student ratio, number of school buildings assigned, Metropolitan…

Toward the development of a children's science curiosity measure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harty, Harold; Beall, Dwight

Based on the need for, suggestions about the construction, and existing measures serving as models found in the literature both inside and outside of science education, the Children's Science Curiosity Scale has undergone six versions using four different samples of fifth graders. Respectable internal consistency (alpha) and test-retest reliabilities have been calculated. Concurrent validity has been demonstrated by significant positive correlations with another recognized curiosity measure, and by way of significant differences between students who were interested in science and students uncertain about interest in science. Somewhat weak predictive validity has been decided by way of significant positive correlations with students' semester science grades. Construct validity has been described and established by eight judges using six criteria, and supported through the use of factor analysis where four underlying factors were hypothesized as characteristics of science curiosity. Sex differences were also explored where significant differences were not found between the genders. Suggestions have been made concerning future attempts at instrument refinement, establishing conceptual validity, future research involving other variables, and classroom use in a variety of contexts.

The Future of Wind Energy in California: Future Projections in Variable-Resolution CESM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, M.; Ullrich, P. A.; Millstein, D.; Collier, C.

2017-12-01

This study focuses on the wind energy characterization and future projection at five primary wind turbine sites in California. Historical (1980-2000) and mid-century (2030-2050) simulations were produced using the Variable-Resolution Community Earth System Model (VR-CESM) to analyze the trends and variations in wind energy under climate change. Datasets from Det Norske Veritas Germanischer Llyod (DNV GL), MERRA-2, CFSR, NARR, as well as surface observational data were used for model validation and comparison. Significant seasonal wind speed changes under RCP8.5 were detected from several wind farm sites. Large-scale patterns were then investigated to analyze the synoptic-scale impact on localized wind change. The agglomerative clustering method was applied to analyze and group different wind patterns. The associated meteorological background of each cluster was investigated to analyze the drivers of different wind patterns. This study improves the characterization of uncertainty around the magnitude and variability in space and time of California's wind resources in the near future, and also enhances understanding of the physical mechanisms related to the trends in wind resource variability.

Effects of sources of variability on sample sizes required for RCTs, applied to trials of lipid-altering therapies on carotid artery intima-media thickness.

PubMed

Gould, A Lawrence; Koglin, Joerg; Bain, Raymond P; Pinto, Cathy-Anne; Mitchel, Yale B; Pasternak, Richard C; Sapre, Aditi

2009-08-01

Studies measuring progression of carotid artery intima-media thickness (cIMT) have been used to estimate the effect of lipid-modifying therapies cardiovascular event risk. The likelihood that future cIMT clinical trials will detect a true treatment effect is estimated by leveraging results from prior studies. The present analyses assess the impact of between- and within-study variability based on currently published data from prior clinical studies on the likelihood that ongoing or future cIMT trials will detect the true treatment effect of lipid-modifying therapies. Published data from six contemporary cIMT studies (ASAP, ARBITER 2, RADIANCE 1, RADIANCE 2, ENHANCE, and METEOR) including data from a total of 3563 patients were examined. Bayesian and frequentist methods were used to assess the impact of between study variability on the likelihood of detecting true treatment effects on 1-year cIMT progression/regression and to provide a sample size estimate that would specifically compensate for the effect of between-study variability. In addition to the well-described within-study variability, there is considerable between-study variability associated with the measurement of annualized change in cIMT. Accounting for the additional between-study variability decreases the power for existing study designs. In order to account for the added between-study variability, it is likely that future cIMT studies would require a large increase in sample size in order to provide substantial probability (> or =90%) to have 90% power of detecting a true treatment effect.Limitation Analyses are based on study level data. Future meta-analyses incorporating patient-level data would be useful for confirmation. Due to substantial within- and between-study variability in the measure of 1-year change of cIMT, as well as uncertainty about progression rates in contemporary populations, future study designs evaluating the effect of new lipid-modifying therapies on atherosclerotic disease progression are likely to be challenged by large sample sizes in order to demonstrate a true treatment effect.

Improving estuary models by reducing uncertainties associated with river flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robins, Peter E.; Lewis, Matt J.; Freer, Jim; Cooper, David M.; Skinner, Christopher J.; Coulthard, Tom J.

2018-07-01

To mitigate against future changes to estuaries such as water quality, catchment and estuary models can be coupled to simulate the transport of harmful pathogenic viruses, pollutants and nutrients from their terrestrial sources, through the estuary and to the coast. To predict future changes to estuaries, daily mean river flow projections are typically used. We show that this approach cannot resolve higher frequency discharge events that have large impacts to estuarine dilution, contamination and recovery for two contrasting estuaries. We therefore characterise sub-daily scale flow variability and propagate this through an estuary model to provide robust estimates of impacts for the future. River flow data (35-year records at 15-min sampling) were used to characterise variabilities in storm hydrograph shapes and simulate the estuarine response. In particular, we modelled a fast-responding catchment-estuary system (Conwy, UK), where the natural variability in hydrograph shapes generated large variability in estuarine circulation that was not captured when using daily-averaged river forcing. In the extreme, the freshwater plume from a 'flash' flood (lasting <12 h) was underestimated by up to 100% - and the response to nutrient loading was underestimated further still. A model of a slower-responding system (Humber, UK), where hydrographs typically last 2-4 days, showed less variability in estuarine circulation and good approximation with daily-averaged flow forcing. Our result has implications for entire system impact modelling; when we determine future changes to estuaries, some systems will need higher resolution future river flow estimates.

Coral bleaching pathways under the control of regional temperature variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Langlais, C. E.; Lenton, A.; Heron, S. F.; Evenhuis, C.; Sen Gupta, A.; Brown, J. N.; Kuchinke, M.

2017-11-01

Increasing sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are predicted to adversely impact coral populations worldwide through increasing thermal bleaching events. Future bleaching is unlikely to be spatially uniform. Therefore, understanding what determines regional differences will be critical for adaptation management. Here, using a cumulative heat stress metric, we show that characteristics of regional SST determine the future bleaching risk patterns. Incorporating observed information on SST variability, in assessing future bleaching risk, provides novel options for management strategies. As a consequence, the known biases in climate model variability and the uncertainties in regional warming rate across climate models are less detrimental than previously thought. We also show that the thresholds used to indicate reef viability can strongly influence a decision on what constitutes a potential refugia. Observing and understanding the drivers of regional variability, and the viability limits of coral reefs, is therefore critical for making meaningful projections of coral bleaching risk.

Evaluation of Stochastic Rainfall Models in Capturing Climate Variability for Future Drought and Flood Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chowdhury, A. F. M. K.; Lockart, N.; Willgoose, G. R.; Kuczera, G. A.; Kiem, A.; Nadeeka, P. M.

2016-12-01

One of the key objectives of stochastic rainfall modelling is to capture the full variability of climate system for future drought and flood risk assessment. However, it is not clear how well these models can capture the future climate variability when they are calibrated to Global/Regional Climate Model data (GCM/RCM) as these datasets are usually available for very short future period/s (e.g. 20 years). This study has assessed the ability of two stochastic daily rainfall models to capture climate variability by calibrating them to a dynamically downscaled RCM dataset in an east Australian catchment for 1990-2010, 2020-2040, and 2060-2080 epochs. The two stochastic models are: (1) a hierarchical Markov Chain (MC) model, which we developed in a previous study and (2) a semi-parametric MC model developed by Mehrotra and Sharma (2007). Our hierarchical model uses stochastic parameters of MC and Gamma distribution, while the semi-parametric model uses a modified MC process with memory of past periods and kernel density estimation. This study has generated multiple realizations of rainfall series by using parameters of each model calibrated to the RCM dataset for each epoch. The generated rainfall series are used to generate synthetic streamflow by using a SimHyd hydrology model. Assessing the synthetic rainfall and streamflow series, this study has found that both stochastic models can incorporate a range of variability in rainfall as well as streamflow generation for both current and future periods. However, the hierarchical model tends to overestimate the multiyear variability of wet spell lengths (therefore, is less likely to simulate long periods of drought and flood), while the semi-parametric model tends to overestimate the mean annual rainfall depths and streamflow volumes (hence, simulated droughts are likely to be less severe). Sensitivity of these limitations of both stochastic models in terms of future drought and flood risk assessment will be discussed.

Catchments' hedging strategy on evapotranspiration for climatic variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, W.; Zhang, C.; Li, Y.; Tang, Y.; Wang, D.; Xu, B.

2017-12-01

Hydrologic responses to climate variability and change are important for human society. Here we test the hypothesis that natural catchments utilize hedging strategies for evapotranspiration and water storage carryover with uncertain future precipitation. The hedging strategy for evapotranspiration in catchments under different levels of water availability is analytically derived from the economic perspective. It is found that there exists hedging between evapotranspiration for current and future only with a portion of water availability. Observation data sets of 160 catchments in the United States covering the period from 1983 to 2003 demonstrate the existence of hedging in catchment hydrology and validate the proposed hedging strategies. We also find that more water is allocated to carryover storage for hedging against the future evapotranspiration risk in the catchments with larger aridity indexes or with larger uncertainty in future precipitation, i.e., long-term climate and precipitation variability control the degree of hedging.

Assessment of a climate model to reproduce rainfall variability and extremes over Southern Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, C. J. R.; Kniveton, D. R.; Layberry, R.

2010-01-01

It is increasingly accepted that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. A change in the distribution and magnitude of extreme rainfall events (associated with changing variability), such as droughts or flooding, may have a far greater impact on human and natural systems than a changing mean. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The sub-continent is considered especially vulnerable to and ill-equipped (in terms of adaptation) for extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, famine, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability and the identification of rainfall extremes is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. The majority of previous climate model verification studies have compared model output with observational data at monthly timescales. In this research, the assessment of ability of a state of the art climate model to simulate climate at daily timescales is carried out using satellite-derived rainfall data from the Microwave Infrared Rainfall Algorithm (MIRA). This dataset covers the period from 1993 to 2002 and the whole of southern Africa at a spatial resolution of 0.1° longitude/latitude. This paper concentrates primarily on the ability of the model to simulate the spatial and temporal patterns of present-day rainfall variability over southern Africa and is not intended to discuss possible future changes in climate as these have been documented elsewhere. Simulations of current climate from the UK Meteorological Office Hadley Centre's climate model, in both regional and global mode, are firstly compared to the MIRA dataset at daily timescales. Secondly, the ability of the model to reproduce daily rainfall extremes is assessed, again by a comparison with extremes from the MIRA dataset. The results suggest that the model reproduces the number and spatial distribution of rainfall extremes with some accuracy, but that mean rainfall and rainfall variability is under-estimated (over-estimated) over wet (dry) regions of southern Africa.

Assessing the role of internal climate variability in Antarctica's contribution to future sea-level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsai, C. Y.; Forest, C. E.; Pollard, D.

2017-12-01

The Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) has the potential to be a major contributor to future sea-level rise (SLR). Current projections of SLR due to AIS mass loss remain highly uncertain. Better understanding of how ice sheets respond to future climate forcing and variability is essential for assessing the long-term risk of SLR. However, the predictability of future climate is limited by uncertainties from emission scenarios, model structural differences, and the internal variability that is inherently generated within the fully coupled climate system. Among those uncertainties, the impact of internal variability on the AIS changes has not been explicitly assessed. In this study, we quantify the effect of internal variability on the AIS evolutions by using climate fields from two large-ensemble experiments using the Community Earth System Model to force a three-dimensional ice sheet model. We find that internal variability of climate fields, particularly atmospheric fields, among ensemble members leads to significantly different AIS responses. Our results show that the internal variability can cause about 80 mm differences of AIS contribution to SLR by 2100 compared to the ensemble-mean contribution of 380-450 mm. Moreover, using ensemble-mean climate fields as the forcing in the ice sheet model does not produce realistic simulations of the ice loss. Instead, it significantly delays the onset of retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet for up to 20 years and significantly underestimates the AIS contribution to SLR by 0.07-0.11 m in 2100 and up to 0.34 m in the 2250's. Therefore, because the uncertainty caused by internal variability is irreducible, we seek to highlight a critical need to assess the role of internal variability in projecting the AIS loss over the next few centuries. By quantifying the impact of internal variability on AIS contribution to SLR, policy makers can obtain more robust estimates of SLR and implement suitable adaptation strategies.

“Maybe I Will Just Send a Quick Text…” – An Examination of Drivers’ Distractions, Causes, and Potential Interventions

PubMed Central

Johansson, Ole J.; Fyhri, Aslak

2017-01-01

Many people use cars all over the world. This is, however, not done without risk, as traffic accidents are one of the most common causes of death for adolescents worldwide. The number of deaths has steadily decreased, both worldwide and in Norway. Many of these accidents involve passenger cars and distracted driving. While there are many campaigns to improve safety in traffic, little research has looked at distractions. A recent report has investigated the occurrence of and damage caused by distraction, and one article has looked at what predicts baseline differences in levels of distracted driving. However, no one has tested an intervention to decrease distracted behavior in traffic. Motivational variables suggested by the Theory of Planned Behavior, personality traits, and demographic variables show utility in similar contexts and are all tested in this project. Data from two samples were collected to investigate the nature of distractions in traffic, what factors predict baseline levels of distractions, and to test an intervention to reduce distractions. Both samples feature randomly assigned intervention and control groups. The first sample (n = 1100 total; n = 208 was licensed to drive) consisted of high school students from all over Norway as a part of a larger attitudinal campaign, while the second sample (n = 414) was more general. The second tested a digital version of implementation intentions designed as volitional help sheets. The results from both samples suggest that there are some robust differences between people in how much they are distracted in everyday life, while some variables need further research. The second study failed to uncover any effects of the intervention. Reasons for this are discussed, along with points on the efficacy of digital interventions, the design of the volitional help sheets, and the design of the study in general. Notwithstanding the ineffectual interventions, this study contains novel information about baseline differences in distractive behavior that may further impact future behavior change interventions and guide future research. PMID:29204129

"Maybe I Will Just Send a Quick Text…" - An Examination of Drivers' Distractions, Causes, and Potential Interventions.

PubMed

Johansson, Ole J; Fyhri, Aslak

2017-01-01

Many people use cars all over the world. This is, however, not done without risk, as traffic accidents are one of the most common causes of death for adolescents worldwide. The number of deaths has steadily decreased, both worldwide and in Norway. Many of these accidents involve passenger cars and distracted driving. While there are many campaigns to improve safety in traffic, little research has looked at distractions. A recent report has investigated the occurrence of and damage caused by distraction, and one article has looked at what predicts baseline differences in levels of distracted driving. However, no one has tested an intervention to decrease distracted behavior in traffic. Motivational variables suggested by the Theory of Planned Behavior, personality traits, and demographic variables show utility in similar contexts and are all tested in this project. Data from two samples were collected to investigate the nature of distractions in traffic, what factors predict baseline levels of distractions, and to test an intervention to reduce distractions. Both samples feature randomly assigned intervention and control groups. The first sample ( n = 1100 total; n = 208 was licensed to drive) consisted of high school students from all over Norway as a part of a larger attitudinal campaign, while the second sample ( n = 414) was more general. The second tested a digital version of implementation intentions designed as volitional help sheets. The results from both samples suggest that there are some robust differences between people in how much they are distracted in everyday life, while some variables need further research. The second study failed to uncover any effects of the intervention. Reasons for this are discussed, along with points on the efficacy of digital interventions, the design of the volitional help sheets, and the design of the study in general. Notwithstanding the ineffectual interventions, this study contains novel information about baseline differences in distractive behavior that may further impact future behavior change interventions and guide future research.

Area Disadvantage and Intimate Partner Homicide: An Ecological Analysis of North Carolina Counties, 2004–2006

PubMed Central

Madkour, Aubrey Spriggs; Martin, Sandra L.; Halpern, Carolyn Tucker; Schoenbach, Victor J.

2009-01-01

Using data from the North Carolina Violent Death Reporting System and other sources, we examined ecologic relationships between county (n=100) disadvantage and intimate partner homicide (IPH), variability by victim gender and county urbanicity, and potential mediators. County disadvantage was related to female-victim homicide only in metropolitan counties (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 1.25); however, disadvantage was associated with male-victim IPH regardless of county urbanicity (IRR 1.17). None of the potential intervening variables examined (shelter availability, intimate partner violence services’ funding), was supported as a mediator. Results suggest disparities across North Carolina counties in IPH according to county disadvantage. Future research should explore other potential mediators (i.e., service accessibility and law enforcement responses), as well as test the robustness of findings using additional years of data. PMID:20565007

Theory of Self- vs. Externally-Regulated LearningTM: Fundamentals, Evidence, and Applicability

PubMed Central

de la Fuente-Arias, Jesús

2017-01-01

The Theory of Self- vs. Externally-Regulated LearningTM has integrated the variables of SRL theory, the DEDEPRO model, and the 3P model. This new Theory has proposed: (a) in general, the importance of the cyclical model of individual self-regulation (SR) and of external regulation stemming from the context (ER), as two different and complementary variables, both in combination and in interaction; (b) specifically, in the teaching-learning context, the relevance of different types of combinations between levels of self-regulation (SR) and of external regulation (ER) in the prediction of self-regulated learning (SRL), and of cognitive-emotional achievement. This review analyzes the assumptions, conceptual elements, empirical evidence, benefits and limitations of SRL vs. ERL Theory. Finally, professional fields of application and future lines of research are suggested. PMID:29033872

Anisotropic constitutive modeling for nickel-base single crystal superalloys. Ph.D. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sheh, Michael Y.

1988-01-01

An anisotropic constitutive model was developed based on crystallographic slip theory for nickel base single crystal superalloys. The constitutive equations developed utilizes drag stress and back stress state variables to model the local inelastic flow. Specially designed experiments were conducted to evaluate the existence of back stress in single crystal superalloy Rene N4 at 982 C. The results suggest that: (1) the back stress is orientation dependent; and (2) the back stress state variable is required for the current model to predict material anelastic recovery behavior. The model was evaluated for its predictive capability on single crystal material behavior including orientation dependent stress-strain response, tension/compression asymmetry, strain rate sensitivity, anelastic recovery behavior, cyclic hardening and softening, stress relaxation, creep and associated crystal lattice rotation. Limitation and future development needs are discussed.

Evaluation of climatic changes in South-Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kjellstrom, Erik; Rana, Arun; Grigory, Nikulin; Renate, Wilcke; Hansson, Ulf; Kolax, Michael

2016-04-01

Literature has sufficient evidences of climate change impact all over the world and its impact on various sectors. In light of new advancements made in climate modeling, availability of several climate downscaling approaches, the more robust bias correction methods with varying complexities and strengths, in the present study we performed a systematic evaluation of climate change impact over South-Asia region. We have used different Regional Climate Models (RCMs) (from CORDEX domain), (Global Climate Models GCMs) and gridded observations for the study area to evaluate the models in historical/control period (1980-2010) and changes in future period (2010-2099). Firstly, GCMs and RCMs are evaluated against the Gridded observational datasets in the area using precipitation and temperature as indicative variables. Observational dataset are also evaluated against the reliable set of observational dataset, as pointed in literature. Bias, Correlation, and changes (among other statistical measures) are calculated for the entire region and both the variables. Eventually, the region was sub-divided into various smaller domains based on homogenous precipitation zones to evaluate the average changes over time period. Spatial and temporal changes for the region are then finally calculated to evaluate the future changes in the region. Future changes are calculated for 2 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the middle emission (RCP4.5) and high emission (RCP8.5) and for both climatic variables, precipitation and temperature. Lastly, Evaluation of Extremes is performed based on precipitation and temperature based indices for whole region in future dataset. Results have indicated that the whole study region is under extreme stress in future climate scenarios for both climatic variables i.e. precipitation and temperature. Precipitation variability is dependent on the location in the area leading to droughts and floods in various regions in future. Temperature is hinting towards a constant increase throughout the region regardless of location.

The pace of past climate change vs. potential bird distributions and land use in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bateman, Brooke L.; Pidgeon, Anna M.; Radeloff, Volker C.; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Vavrus, Stephen J.; Heglund, Patricia J.

2016-01-01

Climate change may drastically alter patterns of species distributions and richness, but predicting future species patterns in occurrence is challenging. Significant shifts in distributions have already been observed, and understanding these recent changes can improve our understanding of potential future changes. We assessed how past climate change affected potential breeding distributions for landbird species in the conterminous United States. We quantified the bioclimatic velocity of potential breeding distributions, that is, the pace and direction of change for each species’ suitable climate space over the past 60 years. We found that potential breeding distributions for landbirds have shifted substantially with an average velocity of 1.27 km yr−1, about double the pace of prior distribution shift estimates across terrestrial systems globally (0.61 km yr−1). The direction of shifts was not uniform. The majority of species’ distributions shifted west, northwest, and north. Multidirectional shifts suggest that changes in climate conditions beyond mean temperature were influencing distributional changes. Indeed, precipitation variables that were proxies for extreme conditions were important variables across all models. There were winners and losers in terms of the area of distributions; many species experienced contractions along west and east distribution edges, and expansions along northern distribution edges. Changes were also reflected in the potential species richness, with some regions potentially gaining species (Midwest, East) and other areas potentially losing species (Southwest). However, the degree to which changes in potential breeding distributions are manifested in actual species richness depends on landcover. Areas that have become increasingly suitable for breeding birds due to changing climate are often those attractive to humans for agriculture and development. This suggests that many areas might have supported more breeding bird species had the landscape not been altered. Our study illustrates that climate change is not only a future threat, but something birds are already experiencing.

The pace of past climate change vs. potential bird distributions and land use in the United States.

PubMed

Bateman, Brooke L; Pidgeon, Anna M; Radeloff, Volker C; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Thogmartin, Wayne E; Vavrus, Stephen J; Heglund, Patricia J

2016-03-01

Climate change may drastically alter patterns of species distributions and richness, but predicting future species patterns in occurrence is challenging. Significant shifts in distributions have already been observed, and understanding these recent changes can improve our understanding of potential future changes. We assessed how past climate change affected potential breeding distributions for landbird species in the conterminous United States. We quantified the bioclimatic velocity of potential breeding distributions, that is, the pace and direction of change for each species' suitable climate space over the past 60 years. We found that potential breeding distributions for landbirds have shifted substantially with an average velocity of 1.27 km yr(-1) , about double the pace of prior distribution shift estimates across terrestrial systems globally (0.61 km yr(-1) ). The direction of shifts was not uniform. The majority of species' distributions shifted west, northwest, and north. Multidirectional shifts suggest that changes in climate conditions beyond mean temperature were influencing distributional changes. Indeed, precipitation variables that were proxies for extreme conditions were important variables across all models. There were winners and losers in terms of the area of distributions; many species experienced contractions along west and east distribution edges, and expansions along northern distribution edges. Changes were also reflected in the potential species richness, with some regions potentially gaining species (Midwest, East) and other areas potentially losing species (Southwest). However, the degree to which changes in potential breeding distributions are manifested in actual species richness depends on landcover. Areas that have become increasingly suitable for breeding birds due to changing climate are often those attractive to humans for agriculture and development. This suggests that many areas might have supported more breeding bird species had the landscape not been altered. Our study illustrates that climate change is not only a future threat, but something birds are already experiencing. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climatic and Landscape Influences on Fire Regimes from 1984 to 2010 in the Western United States

PubMed Central

Liu, Zhihua; Wimberly, Michael C.

2015-01-01

An improved understanding of the relative influences of climatic and landscape controls on multiple fire regime components is needed to enhance our understanding of modern fire regimes and how they will respond to future environmental change. To address this need, we analyzed the spatio-temporal patterns of fire occurrence, size, and severity of large fires (> 405 ha) in the western United States from 1984–2010. We assessed the associations of these fire regime components with environmental variables, including short-term climate anomalies, vegetation type, topography, and human influences, using boosted regression tree analysis. Results showed that large fire occurrence, size, and severity each exhibited distinctive spatial and spatio-temporal patterns, which were controlled by different sets of climate and landscape factors. Antecedent climate anomalies had the strongest influences on fire occurrence, resulting in the highest spatial synchrony. In contrast, climatic variability had weaker influences on fire size and severity and vegetation types were the most important environmental determinants of these fire regime components. Topography had moderately strong effects on both fire occurrence and severity, and human influence variables were most strongly associated with fire size. These results suggest a potential for the emergence of novel fire regimes due to the responses of fire regime components to multiple drivers at different spatial and temporal scales. Next-generation approaches for projecting future fire regimes should incorporate indirect climate effects on vegetation type changes as well as other landscape effects on multiple components of fire regimes. PMID:26465959

Alpine bird distributions along elevation gradients: the consistency of climate and habitat effects across geographic regions.

PubMed

Chamberlain, Dan; Brambilla, Mattia; Caprio, Enrico; Pedrini, Paolo; Rolando, Antonio

2016-08-01

Many species have shown recent shifts in their distributions in response to climate change. Patterns in species occurrence or abundance along altitudinal gradients often serve as the basis for detecting such changes and assessing future sensitivity. Quantifying the distribution of species along altitudinal gradients acts as a fundamental basis for future studies on environmental change impacts, but in order for models of altitudinal distribution to have wide applicability, it is necessary to know the extent to which altitudinal trends in occurrence are consistent across geographically separated areas. This was assessed by fitting models of bird species occurrence across altitudinal gradients in relation to habitat and climate variables in two geographically separated alpine regions, Piedmont and Trentino. The ten species studied showed non-random altitudinal distributions which in most cases were consistent across regions in terms of pattern. Trends in relation to altitude and differences between regions could be explained mostly by habitat or a combination of habitat and climate variables. Variation partitioning showed that most variation explained by the models was attributable to habitat, or habitat and climate together, rather than climate alone or geographic region. The shape and position of the altitudinal distribution curve is important as it can be related to vulnerability where the available space is limited, i.e. where mountains are not of sufficient altitude for expansion. This study therefore suggests that incorporating habitat and climate variables should be sufficient to construct models with high transferability for many alpine species.

Light induced intraspecific variability in response to thermal stress in the hard coral Stylophora pistillata

PubMed Central

Wijgerde, Tim; Dini-Andreote, Francisco; Eriksson, Britas Klemens; Salles, Joana Falcão; Pen, Ido; Wild, Christian

2017-01-01

Recent research suggests that prior exposure of several months to elevated irradiance induces enhanced thermal tolerance in scleractinian corals. While this tolerance has been reported at the species level, individual coral colonies may react differently due to individual variability in thermal tolerance. As thermal anomalies are predicted to become common in the upcoming future, intraspecific variation may be key to the survival of coral populations. In order to study light-history based thermal stress responses on individual colonies, we developed a preliminary microcosm experiment where three randomly chosen, aquacultured colonies of the model coral Stylophora pistillata were exposed to two irradiance treatments (200 and 400 μmol photons m−2 s−1) for 31 days, followed by artificially induced heat stress (∼33.4 °C). We found different responses to occur at both the intraspecific and the intracolonial levels, as indicated by either equal, less severe, delayed, and/or even non-necrotic responses of corals previously exposed to the irradiance of 400 compared to 200 μmol photons m−2 s−1. In addition, all individual colonies revealed light-enhanced calcification. Finally, elevated irradiance resulted in a lower chlorophyll a concentration in one colony compared to the control treatment, and the same colony displayed more rapid bleaching compared to the other ones. Taken together, this study highlights the potential importance of intra-individual variability in physiological responses of scleractinian corals and provides recommendations for improving methodological designs for future studies. PMID:29038747

Understanding and Forecasting Upper Atmosphere Nitric Oxide Through Data Mining Analysis of TIMED/SABER Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flynn, S.; Knipp, D. J.; Matsuo, T.; Mlynczak, M. G.; Hunt, L. A.

2017-12-01

Storm time energy input to the upper atmosphere is countered by infrared radiative emissions from nitric oxide (NO). The temporal profile of these energy sources and losses strongly control thermospheric density profiles, which in turn affect the drag experienced by low Earth orbiting satellites. Storm time processes create NO. In some extreme cases an overabundance of NO emissions unexpectedly decreases atmospheric temperature and density to lower than pre-storm values. Quantifying the spatial and temporal variability of the NO emissions using eigenmodes will increase the understanding of how upper atmospheric NO behaves, and could be used to increase the accuracy of future space weather and climate models. Thirteen years of NO flux data, observed at 100-250 km altitude by the SABER instrument onboard the TIMED satellite, is decomposed into five empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) and their amplitudes to: 1) determine the strongest modes of variability in the data set, and 2) develop a compact model of NO flux. The first five EOFs account for 85% of the variability in the data, and their uncertainty is verified using cross-validation analysis. Although these linearly independent EOFs are not necessarily independent in a geophysical sense, the first three EOFs correlate strongly with different geophysical processes. The first EOF correlates strongly with Kp and F10.7, suggesting that geomagnetic storms and solar weather account for a large portion of NO flux variability. EOF 2 shows annual variations, and EOF 3 correlates with solar wind parameters. Using these relations, an empirical model of the EOF amplitudes can be derived, which could be used as a predictive tool for future NO emissions. We illustrate the NO model, highlight some of the hemispheric asymmetries, and discuss the geophysical associations of the EOFs.

Mechanisms driving recruitment variability in fish: comparisons between the Laurentian Great Lakes and marine systems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pritt, Jeremy J.; Roseman, Edward F.; O'Brien, Timothy P.

2014-01-01

In his seminal work, Hjort (in Fluctuations in the great fisheries of Northern Europe. Conseil Parmanent International Pour L'Exploration De La Mar. Rapports et Proces-Verbaux, 20: 1–228, 1914) observed that fish population levels fluctuated widely, year-class strength was set early in life, and egg production by adults could not alone explain variability in year-class strength. These observations laid the foundation for hypotheses on mechanisms driving recruitment variability in marine systems. More recently, researchers have sought to explain year-class strength of important fish in the Laurentian Great Lakes and some of the hypotheses developed for marine fisheries have been transferred to Great Lakes fish. We conducted a literature review to determine the applicability of marine recruitment hypotheses to Great Lakes fish. We found that temperature, interspecific interactions, and spawner effects (abundance, age, and condition of adults) were the most important factors in explaining recruitment variability in Great Lakes fish, whereas relatively fewer studies identified bottom-up trophodynamic factors or hydrodynamic factors as important. Next, we compared recruitment between Great Lakes and Baltic Sea fish populations and found no statistical difference in factors driving recruitment between the two systems, indicating that recruitment hypotheses may often be transferable between Great Lakes and marine systems. Many recruitment hypotheses developed for marine fish have yet to be applied to Great Lakes fish. We suggest that future research on recruitment in the Great Lakes should focus on forecasting the effects of climate change and invasive species. Further, because the Great Lakes are smaller and more enclosed than marine systems, and have abundant fishery-independent data, they are excellent candidates for future hypothesis testing on recruitment in fish.

Patterns and controls of mercury accumulation in sediments from three thermokarst lakes on the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burke, Samantha M.; Zimmerman, Christian E.; Branfireun, Brian A.; Koch, Joshua C.; Swanson, Heidi K.

2018-01-01

The biogeochemical cycle of mercury will be influenced by climate change, particularly at higher latitudes. Investigations of historical mercury accumulation in lake sediments inform future predictions as to how climate change might affect mercury biogeochemistry; however, in regions with a paucity of data, such as the thermokarst-rich Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska (ACP), the trajectory of mercury accumulation in lake sediments is particularly uncertain. Sediment cores from three thermokarst lakes on the ACP were analyzed to understand changes in, and drivers of, Hg accumulation over the past ~ 100 years. Mercury accumulation in two of the three lakes was variable and high over the past century (91.96 and 78.6 µg/m2/year), and largely controlled by sedimentation rate. Mercury accumulation in the third lake was lower (14.2 µg/m2/year), more temporally uniform, and was more strongly related to sediment Hg concentration than sedimentation rate. Sediment mercury concentrations were quantitatively related to measures of sediment composition and VRS-inferred chlorophyll a, and sedimentation rates were related to various catchment characteristics. These results were compared to data from 37 previously studied Arctic and Alaskan lakes. Results from the meta-analysis indicate that thermokarst lakes have significantly higher and more variable Hg accumulation rates than non-thermokarst lakes, suggesting that certain properties (e.g., thermal erosion, thaw slumping, low hydraulic conductivity) likely make lakes prone to high and variable Hg accumulation rates. Differences and high variability in Hg accumulation among high latitude lakes highlight the complexity of predicting future climate-related change impacts on mercury cycling in these environments.

Human influence on tropical cyclone intensity.

PubMed

Sobel, Adam H; Camargo, Suzana J; Hall, Timothy M; Lee, Chia-Ying; Tippett, Michael K; Wing, Allison A

2016-07-15

Recent assessments agree that tropical cyclone intensity should increase as the climate warms. Less agreement exists on the detection of recent historical trends in tropical cyclone intensity. We interpret future and recent historical trends by using the theory of potential intensity, which predicts the maximum intensity achievable by a tropical cyclone in a given local environment. Although greenhouse gas-driven warming increases potential intensity, climate model simulations suggest that aerosol cooling has largely canceled that effect over the historical record. Large natural variability complicates analysis of trends, as do poleward shifts in the latitude of maximum intensity. In the absence of strong reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, future greenhouse gas forcing of potential intensity will increasingly dominate over aerosol forcing, leading to substantially larger increases in tropical cyclone intensities. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Prayer and health: review, meta-analysis, and research agenda.

PubMed

Masters, Kevin S; Spielmans, Glen I

2007-08-01

This article reviews the empirical research on prayer and health and offers a research agenda to guide future studies. Though many people practice prayer and believe it affects their health, scientific evidence is limited. In keeping with a general increase in interest in spirituality and complementary and alternative treatments, prayer has garnered attention among a growing number of behavioral scientists. The effects of distant intercessory prayer are examined by meta-analysis and it is concluded that no discernable effects can be found. The literature regarding frequency of prayer, content of prayer, and prayer as a coping strategy is subsequently reviewed. Suggestions for future research include the conduct of experimental studies based on conceptual models that include precise operationally defined constructs, longitudinal investigations with proper measure of control variables, and increased use of ecological momentary assessment techniques.

Drought in Northeast Brazil—past, present, and future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marengo, Jose A.; Torres, Roger Rodrigues; Alves, Lincoln Muniz

2017-08-01

This study provides an overview of the drought situation in Northeast Brazil for the past, present, and future. Droughts affect more people than any other natural hazard owing to their large scale and long-lasting nature. They are recurrent in the region and while some measures have been taken by the governments to mitigate their impacts, there is still a perception that residents, mainly in rural areas, are not yet adapted to these hazards. The drought affecting the Northeast from 2012 to 2015, however, has had an intensity and impact not seen in several decades and has already destroyed large swaths of cropland, affecting hundreds of cities and towns across the region, and leaving ranchers struggling to feed and water cattle. Future climate projections for the area show large temperature increases and rainfall reductions, which, together with a tendency for longer periods with consecutive dry days, suggest the occurrence of more frequent/intense dry spells and droughts and a tendency toward aridification in the region. All these conditions lead to an increase in evaporation from reservoirs and lakes, affecting irrigation and agriculture as well as key water uses including hydropower and industry, and thus, the welfare of the residents. Integrating drought monitoring and seasonal forecasting provides efficient means of assessing impacts of climate variability and change, identifying vulnerabilities, and allowing for better adaptation measures not only for medium- and long-term climate change but also for extremes of the interannual climate variability, particularly droughts.

Present and future global distributions of the marine Cyanobacteria Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus

PubMed Central

Flombaum, Pedro; Gallegos, José L.; Gordillo, Rodolfo A.; Rincón, José; Zabala, Lina L.; Jiao, Nianzhi; Karl, David M.; Li, William K. W.; Lomas, Michael W.; Veneziano, Daniele; Vera, Carolina S.; Vrugt, Jasper A.; Martiny, Adam C.

2013-01-01

The Cyanobacteria Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus account for a substantial fraction of marine primary production. Here, we present quantitative niche models for these lineages that assess present and future global abundances and distributions. These niche models are the result of neural network, nonparametric, and parametric analyses, and they rely on >35,000 discrete observations from all major ocean regions. The models assess cell abundance based on temperature and photosynthetically active radiation, but the individual responses to these environmental variables differ for each lineage. The models estimate global biogeographic patterns and seasonal variability of cell abundance, with maxima in the warm oligotrophic gyres of the Indian and the western Pacific Oceans and minima at higher latitudes. The annual mean global abundances of Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus are 2.9 ± 0.1 × 1027 and 7.0 ± 0.3 × 1026 cells, respectively. Using projections of sea surface temperature as a result of increased concentration of greenhouse gases at the end of the 21st century, our niche models projected increases in cell numbers of 29% and 14% for Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus, respectively. The changes are geographically uneven but include an increase in area. Thus, our global niche models suggest that oceanic microbial communities will experience complex changes as a result of projected future climate conditions. Because of the high abundances and contributions to primary production of Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus, these changes may have large impacts on ocean ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles. PMID:23703908

Using ensemble forecasting to examine how climate change promotes worldwide invasion of the golden apple snail (Pomacea canaliculata).

PubMed

Lei, Juncheng; Chen, Lian; Li, Hong

2017-08-01

The golden apple snail, Pomacea canaliculata, is one of the world's 100 most notorious invasive alien species. Knowledge about the critical climate variables that limit the global distribution range of the snail, as well as predictions of future species distributions under climate change, is very helpful for management of snail. In this study, the climatically suitable habitats for this kind of snail under current climate conditions were modeled by biomod2 and projected to eight future climate scenarios (2 time periods [2050s, 2080s] × 2 Representative Concentration Pathways [RCPs; RCP2.6, RCP8.5] × 2 atmospheric General Circulation Models [GCMs; Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCMA), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)]). The results suggest that the lowest temperature of coldest month is the critical climate variable to restrict the global distribution range of P. canaliculata. It is predicted that the climatically suitable habitats for P. canaliculata will increase by an average of 3.3% in 2050s and 3.8% in 2080s for the RCP2.6 scenario, while they increase by an average of 8.7% in 2050s and 10.3% in 2080s for the RCP8.5 scenario. In general, climate change in the future may promote the global invasion of the invasive species. Therefore, it is necessary to take proactive measures to monitor and preclude the invasion of this species.

Characterizing the landscape dynamics of an invasive plant and risk of invasion using remote sensing.

PubMed

Bradley, Bethany A; Mustard, John F

2006-06-01

Improved understanding of the spatial dynamics of invasive plant species may lead to more effective land management and reduced future invasion. Here, we identified the spatial extents of nonnative cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) in the north central Great Basin using remotely sensed data from Landsat MSS, TM, and ETM+. We compared cheatgrass extents in 1973 and 2001 to six spatially explicit landscape variables: elevation, aspect, hydrographic channels, cultivation, roads, and power lines. In 2001, Cheatgrass was 10% more likely to be found in elevation ranges from 1400 to 1700 m (although the data suggest a preferential invasion into lower elevations by 2001), 6% more likely on west and northwest facing slopes, and 3% more likely within hydrographic channels. Over this time period, cheatgrass expansion was also closely linked to proximity to land use. In 2001, cheatgrass was 20% more likely to be found within 3 km of cultivation, 13% more likely to be found within 700 m of a road, and 15% more likely to be found within 1 km of a power line. Finally, in 2001 cheatgrass was 26% more likely to be present within 150 m of areas occupied by cheatgrass in 1973. Using these relationships, we created a risk map of future cheatgrass invasion that may aid land management. These results highlight the importance of including land use variables and the extents of current plant invasion in predictions of future risk.

Predicting Noninsulin Antidiabetic Drug Adherence Using a Theoretical Framework Based on the Theory of Planned Behavior in Adults With Type 2 Diabetes

PubMed Central

Zomahoun, Hervé Tchala Vignon; Moisan, Jocelyne; Lauzier, Sophie; Guillaumie, Laurence; Grégoire, Jean-Pierre; Guénette, Line

2016-01-01

Abstract Understanding the process behind noninsulin antidiabetic drug (NIAD) nonadherence is necessary for designing effective interventions to resolve this problem. This study aimed to explore the ability of the theory of planned behavior (TPB), which is known as a good predictor of behaviors, to predict the future NIAD adherence in adults with type 2 diabetes. We conducted a prospective study of adults with type 2 diabetes. They completed a questionnaire on TPB variables and external variables. Linear regression was used to explore the TPB's ability to predict future NIAD adherence, which was prospectively measured as the proportion of days covered by at least 1 NIAD using pharmacy claims data. The interaction between past NIAD adherence and intention was tested. The sample included 340 people. There was an interaction between past NIAD adherence and intention to adhere to the NIAD (P = 0.032). Intention did not predict future NIAD adherence in the past adherers and nonadherers groups, but its association measure was high among past nonadherers (β = 5.686, 95% confidence interval [CI] −10.174, 21.546). In contrast, intention was mainly predicted by perceived behavioral control both in the past adherers (β = 0.900, 95% CI 0.796, 1.004) and nonadherers groups (β = 0.760, 95% CI 0.555, 0.966). The present study suggests that TPB is a good tool to predict intention to adhere and future NIAD adherence. However, there was a gap between intention to adhere and actual adherence to the NIAD, which is partly explained by the past adherence level in adults with type 2 diabetes. PMID:27082543

Modeling future scenarios of light attenuation and potential seagrass success in a eutrophic estuary

USGS Publications Warehouse

del Barrio, Pilar; Ganju, Neil K.; Aretxabaleta, Alfredo L.; Hayn, Melanie; García, Andrés; Howarth, Robert W.

2014-01-01

Estuarine eutrophication has led to numerous ecological changes, including loss of seagrass beds. One potential cause of these losses is a reduction in light availability due to increased attenuation by phytoplankton. Future sea level rise will also tend to reduce light penetration and modify seagrass habitat. In the present study, we integrate a spectral irradiance model into a biogeochemical model coupled to the Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS). It is linked to a bio-optical seagrass model to assess potential seagrass habitat in a eutrophic estuary under future nitrate loading and sea-level rise scenarios. The model was applied to West Falmouth Harbor, a shallow estuary located on Cape Cod (Massachusetts) where nitrate from groundwater has led to eutrophication and seagrass loss in landward portions of the estuary. Measurements of chlorophyll, turbidity, light attenuation, and seagrass coverage were used to assess the model accuracy. Mean chlorophyll based on uncalibrated in-situ fluorometry varied from 28 μg L−1 at the landward-most site to 6.5 μg L−1 at the seaward site, while light attenuation ranged from 0.86 to 0.45 m-1. The model reproduced the spatial variability in chlorophyll and light attenuation with RMS errors of 3.72 μg L−1 and 0.07 m-1 respectively. Scenarios of future nitrate reduction and sea-level rise suggest an improvement in light climate in the landward basin with a 75% reduction in nitrate loading. This coupled model may be useful to assess habitat availability changes due to eutrophication and sediment resuspension and fully considers spatial variability on the tidal timescale.

Present, Future, and Novel Bioclimates of the San Francisco, California Region

PubMed Central

Torregrosa, Alicia; Taylor, Maxwell D.; Flint, Lorraine E.; Flint, Alan L.

2013-01-01

Bioclimates are syntheses of climatic variables into biologically relevant categories that facilitate comparative studies of biotic responses to climate conditions. Isobioclimates, unique combinations of bioclimatic indices (continentality, ombrotype, and thermotype), were constructed for northern California coastal ranges based on the Rivas-Martinez worldwide bioclimatic classification system for the end of the 20th century climatology (1971–2000) and end of the 21st century climatology (2070–2099) using two models, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) model and the Parallel Climate Model (PCM), under the medium-high A2 emission scenario. The digitally mapped results were used to 1) assess the relative redistribution of isobioclimates and their magnitude of change, 2) quantify the loss of isobioclimates into the future, 3) identify and locate novel isobioclimates projected to appear, and 4) explore compositional change in vegetation types among analog isobioclimate patches. This study used downscaled climate variables to map the isobioclimates at a fine spatial resolution −270 m grid cells. Common to both models of future climate was a large change in thermotype. Changes in ombrotype differed among the two models. The end of 20th century climatology has 83 isobioclimates covering the 63,000 km2 study area. In both future projections 51 of those isobioclimates disappear over 40,000 km2. The ordination of vegetation-bioclimate relationships shows very strong correlation of Rivas-Martinez indices with vegetation distribution and composition. Comparisons of vegetation composition among analog patches suggest that vegetation change will be a local rearrangement of species already in place rather than one requiring long distance dispersal. The digitally mapped results facilitate comparison with other Mediterranean regions. Major remaining challenges include predicting vegetation composition of novel isobioclimates and developing metrics to compare differences in climate space. PMID:23526985

Present, future, and novel bioclimates of the San Francisco, California region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Torregrosa, Alicia; Taylor, Maxwell D.; Flint, Lorraine E.; Flint, Alan L.

2013-01-01

Bioclimates are syntheses of climatic variables into biologically relevant categories that facilitate comparative studies of biotic responses to climate conditions. Isobioclimates, unique combinations of bioclimatic indices (continentality, ombrotype, and thermotype), were constructed for northern California coastal ranges based on the Rivas-Martinez worldwide bioclimatic classification system for the end of the 20th century climatology (1971–2000) and end of the 21st century climatology (2070–2099) using two models, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) model and the Parallel Climate Model (PCM), under the medium-high A2 emission scenario. The digitally mapped results were used to 1) assess the relative redistribution of isobioclimates and their magnitude of change, 2) quantify the loss of isobioclimates into the future, 3) identify and locate novel isobioclimates projected to appear, and 4) explore compositional change in vegetation types among analog isobioclimate patches. This study used downscaled climate variables to map the isobioclimates at a fine spatial resolution −270 m grid cells. Common to both models of future climate was a large change in thermotype. Changes in ombrotype differed among the two models. The end of 20th century climatology has 83 isobioclimates covering the 63,000 km2 study area. In both future projections 51 of those isobioclimates disappear over 40,000 km2. The ordination of vegetation-bioclimate relationships shows very strong correlation of Rivas-Martinez indices with vegetation distribution and composition. Comparisons of vegetation composition among analog patches suggest that vegetation change will be a local rearrangement of species already in place rather than one requiring long distance dispersal. The digitally mapped results facilitate comparison with other Mediterranean regions. Major remaining challenges include predicting vegetation composition of novel isobioclimates and developing metrics to compare differences in climate space.

Interannual variability of terrestrial NEP and its attributions to carbon uptake amplitude and period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niu, S.

2015-12-01

Earth system exhibits strong interannual variability (IAV) in the global carbon cycle as reflected in the year-to-year anomalies of the atmospheric CO2 concentration. Although various analyses suggested that land ecosystems contribute mostly to the IAV of atmospheric CO2 concentration, processes leading to the IAV in the terrestrial carbon (C) cycle are far from clear and hinder our effort in predicting the IAV of global C cycle. Previous studies on IAV of global C cycle have focused on the regulation of climatic variables in tropical or semiarid areas, but generated inconsistent conclusions. Using long-term eddy-flux measurements of net ecosystem production (NEP), atmospheric CO2 inversion NEP, and the MODIS-derived gross primary production (GPP), we demonstrate that seasonal carbon uptake amplitude (CUA) and period (CUP) are two key processes that control the IAV in the terrestrial C cycle. The two processes together explain 78% of the variations in the IAV in eddy covariance NEP, 70% in global atmospheric inversed NEP, and 53% in the IAV of GPP. Moreover, the three lines of evidence consistently show that variability in CUA is much more important than that of CUP in determining the variation of NEP at most eddy-flux sites, and most grids of global NEP and GPP. Our results suggest that the maximum carbon uptake potential in the peak-growing season is a determinant process of global C cycle internnual variability and carbon uptake period may play less important role than previous expectations. This study uncovers the most parsimonious, proximate processes underlying the IAV in global C cycle of the Earth system. Future research is needed to identify how climate factors affect the IAV in terrestrial C cycle through their influence on CUA and CUP.

Correlates and predictors of sexual health among adolescent Latinas in the United States: A systematic review of the literature, 2004-2015.

PubMed

Morales-Alemán, Mercedes M; Scarinci, Isabel C

2016-06-01

Adolescent Latinas in the United States (US) are disproportionately affected by early pregnancy, sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in comparison to their non-Hispanic white counterparts. However, only a few studies have sought to understand the multi-level factors associated with sexual health in adolescent Latinas. Adhering to the preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses (PRISMA) guidelines, we conducted a systematic literature review to better understand the correlates and predictors of sexual health among adolescent Latinas in the US, identify gaps in the research, and suggest future directions for empirical studies and intervention efforts. Eleven studies were identified: five examined onset of sexual intercourse, nine examined determinants of sexual health/risk behaviors (e.g., number of sexual partners and condom use), and three examined determinants of a biological sexual health outcome (i.e., STIs or pregnancy). Two types of variables/factors emerged as important influences on sexual health outcomes: proximal context-level variables (i.e., variables pertaining to the individual's family, sexual/romantic partner or peer group) and individual-level variables (i.e., characteristics of the individual). A majority of the studies reviewed (n=9) examined some aspect of acculturation or Latino/a cultural values in relation to sexual health. Results varied widely between studies suggesting that the relationship between individual and proximal contextual variables (including acculturation) and sexual health may be more complex than previously conceived. This review integrates the findings on correlates and predictors of sexual health among adolescent Latinas, and supports the need for strengths-based theoretically guided research on the mechanisms driving these associations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evolution of multidecadal variability in the West African monsoon during the last deglaciation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shanahan, T. M.; McKay, N.

2017-12-01

The West African monsoon system is strongly linked to changes in Atlantic variability on multidecadal to millennial timescales. Understanding the nature of these linkages thus provides important insights into the susceptibility of West African precipitation to past and future changes in Atlantic circulation. Here, we use an annually-resolved record of lamination thickness variations from Lake Bosumtwi, Ghana to generate an unprecedented record of changes in the West African monsoon spanning the last deglaciation ( 12.8-24 ka BP) and the latest Holocene (0-2.6 ka BP). Millennial-scale variability in varve thickness is consistent with published data from hydrogen isotopes in leaf waxes, showing a dramatic and sustained shift to drier conditions during HS1, a rapid recovery at the onset of the Bølling-Allerød and a gradual shift towards drier conditions following the end of the African Humid Period. The varve thickness record also indicates the presence of significant multidecadal ( 40- 80 years) West African monsoon variability throughout much of the record, disappearing only during the later portion of HS1 ( 14.8-16 ka BP). Previous studies have linked multidecadal variability in the West African monsoon to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), a low frequency mode of North Atlantic sea surface temperature variability that is hypothesized to be controlled by changes in North Atlantic heat transport via the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Our reconstruction indicates that this mode of multidecadal variability was active not only throughout the late Holocene but during the Last Glacial Maximum and much of the deglaciation, including the first half of HS1. The later result is unexpected in that it suggests that the AMO remained active even as the Atlantic overturning circulation collapsed and the African monsoon weakened during the initial phase of HS1. The decoupling of multidecadal and millennial scale variability suggests either a complex, time-transgressive Atlantic circulation response to changing conditions during HS1 or that the driver of multidecadal variability resides in some process other than the AMOC.

A digital spatial predictive model of land-use change using economic and environmental inputs and a statistical tree classification approach: Thailand, 1970s--1990s

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Felkner, John Sames

The scale and extent of global land use change is massive, and has potentially powerful effects on the global climate and global atmospheric composition (Turner & Meyer, 1994). Because of this tremendous change and impact, there is an urgent need for quantitative, empirical models of land use change, especially predictive models with an ability to capture the trajectories of change (Agarwal, Green, Grove, Evans, & Schweik, 2000; Lambin et al., 1999). For this research, a spatial statistical predictive model of land use change was created and run in two provinces of Thailand. The model utilized an extensive spatial database, and used a classification tree approach for explanatory model creation and future land use (Breiman, Friedman, Olshen, & Stone, 1984). Eight input variables were used, and the trees were run on a dependent variable of land use change measured from 1979 to 1989 using classified satellite imagery. The derived tree models were used to create probability of change surfaces, and these were then used to create predicted land cover maps for 1999. These predicted 1999 maps were compared with actual 1999 landcover derived from 1999 Landsat 7 imagery. The primary research hypothesis was that an explanatory model using both economic and environmental input variables would better predict future land use change than would either a model using only economic variables or a model using only environmental. Thus, the eight input variables included four economic and four environmental variables. The results indicated a very slight superiority of the full models to predict future agricultural change and future deforestation, but a slight superiority of the economic models to predict future built change. However, the margins of superiority were too small to be statistically significant. The resulting tree structures were used, however, to derive a series of principles or "rules" governing land use change in both provinces. The model was able to predict future land use, given a series of assumptions, with 90 percent overall accuracies. The model can be used in other developing or developed country locations for future land use prediction, determination of future threatened areas, or to derive "rules" or principles driving land use change.

Selecting climate change scenarios using impact-relevant sensitivities

Treesearch

Julie A. Vano; John B. Kim; David E. Rupp; Philip W. Mote

2015-01-01

Climate impact studies often require the selection of a small number of climate scenarios. Ideally, a subset would have simulations that both (1) appropriately represent the range of possible futures for the variable/s most important to the impact under investigation and (2) come from global climate models (GCMs) that provide plausible results for future climate in the...

Potential environmental impact of tidal energy extraction in the Pentland Firth at large spatial scales: results of a biogeochemical model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Molen, Johan; Ruardij, Piet; Greenwood, Naomi

2016-05-01

A model study was carried out of the potential large-scale (> 100 km) effects of marine renewable tidal energy generation in the Pentland Firth, using the 3-D hydrodynamics-biogeochemistry model GETM-ERSEM-BFM. A realistic 800 MW scenario and a high-impact scenario with massive expansion of tidal energy extraction to 8 GW scenario were considered. The realistic 800 MW scenario suggested minor effects on the tides, and undetectable effects on the biogeochemistry. The massive-expansion 8 GW scenario suggested effects would be observed over hundreds of kilometres away with changes of up to 10 % in tidal and ecosystem variables, in particular in a broad area in the vicinity of the Wash. There, waters became less turbid, and primary production increased with associated increases in faunal ecosystem variables. Moreover, a one-off increase in carbon storage in the sea bed was detected. Although these first results suggest positive environmental effects, further investigation is recommended of (i) the residual circulation in the vicinity of the Pentland Firth and effects on larval dispersal using a higher-resolution model and (ii) ecosystem effects with (future) state-of-the-art models if energy extraction substantially beyond 1 GW is planned.

Automatic Classification of Time-variable X-Ray Sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lo, Kitty K.; Farrell, Sean; Murphy, Tara; Gaensler, B. M.

2014-05-01

To maximize the discovery potential of future synoptic surveys, especially in the field of transient science, it will be necessary to use automatic classification to identify some of the astronomical sources. The data mining technique of supervised classification is suitable for this problem. Here, we present a supervised learning method to automatically classify variable X-ray sources in the Second XMM-Newton Serendipitous Source Catalog (2XMMi-DR2). Random Forest is our classifier of choice since it is one of the most accurate learning algorithms available. Our training set consists of 873 variable sources and their features are derived from time series, spectra, and other multi-wavelength contextual information. The 10 fold cross validation accuracy of the training data is ~97% on a 7 class data set. We applied the trained classification model to 411 unknown variable 2XMM sources to produce a probabilistically classified catalog. Using the classification margin and the Random Forest derived outlier measure, we identified 12 anomalous sources, of which 2XMM J180658.7-500250 appears to be the most unusual source in the sample. Its X-ray spectra is suggestive of a ultraluminous X-ray source but its variability makes it highly unusual. Machine-learned classification and anomaly detection will facilitate scientific discoveries in the era of all-sky surveys.

Prompt optical emission from gamma-ray bursts with multiple timescale variability of central engine activities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Si-Yao; Li, Zhuo

2014-04-01

Complete high-resolution light curves of GRB 080319B observed by Swift present an opportunity for detailed temporal analysis of prompt optical emission. With a two-component distribution of initial Lorentz factors, we simulate the dynamical process of shells being ejected from the central engine in the framework of the internal shock model. The emitted radiations are decomposed into different frequency ranges for a temporal correlation analysis between the light curves in different energy bands. The resulting prompt optical and gamma-ray emissions show similar temporal profiles, with both showing a superposition of a component with slow variability and a component with fast variability, except that the gamma-ray light curve is much more variable than its optical counterpart. The variability in the simulated light curves and the strong correlation with a time lag between the optical and gamma-ray emissions are in good agreement with observations of GRB 080319B. Our simulations suggest that the variations seen in the light curves stem from the temporal structure of the shells injected from the central engine of gamma-ray bursts. Future observations with high temporal resolution of prompt optical emission from GRBs, e.g., by UFFO-Pathfinder and SVOM-GWAC, will provide a useful tool for investigating the central engine activity.

An examination of variables which influence high school students to enroll in an undergraduate engineering or physical science major

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Porter, Christopher H.

The purpose of this study was to examine the variables which influence a high school student to enroll in an engineering discipline versus a physical science discipline. Data was collected utilizing the High School Activities, Characteristics, and Influences Survey, which was administered to students who were freshmen in an engineering or physical science major at an institution in the Southeastern United States. A total of 413 students participated in the survey. Collected data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, two-sample Wilcoxon tests, and binomial logistic regression techniques. A total of 29 variables were deemed significant between the general engineering and physical science students. The 29 significant variables were further analyzed to see which have an independent impact on a student to enroll in an undergraduate engineering program, as opposed to an undergraduate physical science program. Four statistically significant variables were found to have an impact on a student's decision to enroll in a engineering undergraduate program versus a physical science program: father's influence, participation in Project Lead the Way, and the subjects of mathematics and physics. Recommendations for theory, policy, and practice were discussed based on the results of the study. This study presented suggestions for developing ways to attract, educate, and move future engineers into the workforce.

Coordination and variability in the elite female tennis serve.

PubMed

Whiteside, David; Elliott, Bruce Clifford; Lay, Brendan; Reid, Machar

2015-01-01

Enhancing the understanding of coordination and variability in the tennis serve may be of interest to coaches as they work with players to improve performance. The current study examined coordinated joint rotations and variability in the lower limbs, trunk, serving arm and ball location in the elite female tennis serve. Pre-pubescent, pubescent and adult players performed maximal effort flat serves while a 22-camera 500 Hz motion analysis system captured three-dimensional body kinematics. Coordinated joint rotations in the lower limbs and trunk appeared most consistent at the time players left the ground, suggesting that they coordinate the proximal elements of the kinematic chain to ensure that they leave the ground at a consistent time, in a consistent posture. Variability in the two degrees of freedom at the elbow became significantly greater closer to impact in adults, possibly illustrating the mechanical adjustments (compensation) these players employed to manage the changing impact location from serve to serve. Despite the variable ball toss, the temporal composition of the serve was highly consistent and supports previous assertions that players use the location of the ball to regulate their movement. Future work should consider these associations in other populations, while coaches may use the current findings to improve female serve performance.

Healthy Variability in Organizational Behavior: Empirical Evidence and New Steps for Future Research.

PubMed

Navarro, José; Rueff-Lopes, Rita

2015-10-01

The healthy variability thesis suggests that healthy systems function in a complex manner over time. This thesis is well-established in fields like physiology. In the field of organizational behavior, however, this relation is only starting to be explored. The objective of this article is threefold: First, we aim to provide a comprehensive review of the healthy variability thesis including some of the most important findings across different fields, with a focus on evidences from organizational research in work motivation and performance. Second, we discuss an opposite pattern, unhealthy stability, i.e., the relationship between unhealthy behaviors and lower variability. Again, we provide evidence from diverse areas, from affective processes to disruptive organizational comportments like mobbing. Third, we provide a critical evaluation of current methodological trends and highlight what we believe to be the main factors that are stopping organizational research from advancing in the field. Theoretical, methodological and epistemological implications are discussed. To conclude, we draw a compilation of the lessons learned, which hopefully provide insights for prolific research avenues. Our main purpose is to raise awareness of the healthy variability thesis and to enthuse organizational researchers to consider it in order to advance existing knowledge, revisit old theories and create new ones.

Fishing, fast growth and climate variability increase the risk of collapse

PubMed Central

Pinsky, Malin L.; Byler, David

2015-01-01

Species around the world have suffered collapses, and a key question is why some populations are more vulnerable than others. Traditional conservation biology and evidence from terrestrial species suggest that slow-growing populations are most at risk, but interactions between climate variability and harvest dynamics may alter or even reverse this pattern. Here, we test this hypothesis globally. We use boosted regression trees to analyse the influences of harvesting, species traits and climate variability on the risk of collapse (decline below a fixed threshold) across 154 marine fish populations around the world. The most important factor explaining collapses was the magnitude of overfishing, while the duration of overfishing best explained long-term depletion. However, fast growth was the next most important risk factor. Fast-growing populations and those in variable environments were especially sensitive to overfishing, and the risk of collapse was more than tripled for fast-growing when compared with slow-growing species that experienced overfishing. We found little evidence that, in the absence of overfishing, climate variability or fast growth rates alone drove population collapse over the last six decades. Expanding efforts to rapidly adjust harvest pressure to account for climate-driven lows in productivity could help to avoid future collapses, particularly among fast-growing species. PMID:26246548

Fishing, fast growth and climate variability increase the risk of collapse.

PubMed

Pinsky, Malin L; Byler, David

2015-08-22

Species around the world have suffered collapses, and a key question is why some populations are more vulnerable than others. Traditional conservation biology and evidence from terrestrial species suggest that slow-growing populations are most at risk, but interactions between climate variability and harvest dynamics may alter or even reverse this pattern. Here, we test this hypothesis globally. We use boosted regression trees to analyse the influences of harvesting, species traits and climate variability on the risk of collapse (decline below a fixed threshold) across 154 marine fish populations around the world. The most important factor explaining collapses was the magnitude of overfishing, while the duration of overfishing best explained long-term depletion. However, fast growth was the next most important risk factor. Fast-growing populations and those in variable environments were especially sensitive to overfishing, and the risk of collapse was more than tripled for fast-growing when compared with slow-growing species that experienced overfishing. We found little evidence that, in the absence of overfishing, climate variability or fast growth rates alone drove population collapse over the last six decades. Expanding efforts to rapidly adjust harvest pressure to account for climate-driven lows in productivity could help to avoid future collapses, particularly among fast-growing species. © 2015 The Author(s).

Inter-annual Variability of Snowfall in the Lower Peninsula of Michigan, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, L.

2016-12-01

Winter snowfall, particularly lake-effect snowfall, impacts all aspects of Michigan life in the wintertime, from motorsports and tourism to impacting the day-to-day lives of residents. Understanding the inter-annual variability of winter snowfall will provide sound basis for local community safety management and improve weather forecasting. This study attempts to understand the trend in winter snowfall and the influencing factors of winter snowfall variability in the Lower Peninsula of Michigan (LPM) using station snowfall measurements and statistical analysis. Our study demonstrates that snowfall has significantly increased from 1932 to 2015. Correlation analysis suggests that regionally average air temperatures have a strong negative relationship with snowfall in LPM. On average, approximately 27% of inter-annual variability in snowfall can be explained by regionally average air temperatures. ENSO events are also negatively related to snowfall in LPM and can explain 8% of inter-annual variability. North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) does not have strong influence on snowfall. Composite analysis demonstrates that on annual basis, more winter snowfall occurs during the years with higher maximum ice cover (MIC) than during the years with lower MIC in Lake Michigan. Higher MIC is often associated with lower air temperatures which are negatively related to winter snowfall. This study could provide insight on future snow related climate model improvement and weather forecasting.

Environmental dynamics and carbon accumulation rate of a tropical peatland in Central Sumatra, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hapsari, Kartika Anggi; Biagioni, Siria; Jennerjahn, Tim C.; Reimer, Peter Meyer; Saad, Asmadi; Achnopha, Yudhi; Sabiham, Supiandi; Behling, Hermann

2017-08-01

Tropical peatlands are important for the global carbon cycle as they store 18% of the total global peat carbon. As they are vulnerable to changes in temperature and precipitation, a rapidly changing environment endangers peatlands and their carbon storage potential. Understanding the mechanisms of peatland carbon accumulation from studying past developments may, therefore, help to assess the future role of tropical peatlands. Using a multi-proxy palaeoecological approach, a peat core taken from the Sungai Buluh peatland in Central Sumatra has been analyzed for its pollen and spore, macro charcoal and biogeochemical composition. The result suggests that peat and C accumulation rates were driven mainly by sea level change, river water level, climatic variability and anthropogenic activities. It is also suggested that peat C accumulation in Sungai Buluh is correlated to the abundance of Freycinetia, Myrtaceae, Calophyllum, Stemonuraceae, Ficus and Euphorbiaceae. Sungai Buluh has reasonable potential for being a future global tropical peat C sinks. However, considering the impact of rapid global climate change in addition to land-use change following rapid economic growth in Indonesia, such potential may be lost. Taking advantage of available palaeoecological records and advances made in Quaternary studies, some considerations for management practice such as identification of priority taxa and conservation sites are suggested.

Longitudinal, reciprocal effects of social skills and achievement from kindergarten to eighth grade.

PubMed

Caemmerer, Jacqueline M; Keith, Timothy Z

2015-08-01

Previous research suggests that students' social skills and achievement are interrelated, and some findings support bi-directional effects between the two constructs. The purpose of this research study was to estimate the possible longitudinal and reciprocal effects of social skills and achievement for kindergarten through eighth grade students. Data from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study program were analyzed; teachers' ratings of students' social skills and students' standardized math and reading achievement performance were collected 4 and 5 times, respectively. Latent variable structural equation modeling was used to test a panel model of reciprocal, longitudinal effects of social skills and achievement. The results suggest that the effects of students' social skills and achievement are bi-directional, but the effects of students' achievement on their later social skills are stronger than the effects of social skills on achievement. The significant effects of students' social skills on their later achievement are mostly indirect. These findings suggest that the future social skills of students who struggle academically may be of particular concern to educators, and intervention and prevention efforts aimed to address both social and achievement skills may help remediate the other skill in the future. Copyright © 2015 Society for the Study of School Psychology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quantifying the influence of CO2 seasonality on future aragonite undersaturation onset

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sasse, T. P.; McNeil, B. I.; Matear, R. J.; Lenton, A.

2015-10-01

Ocean acidification is a predictable consequence of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), and is highly likely to impact the entire marine ecosystem - from plankton at the base of the food chain to fish at the top. Factors which are expected to be impacted include reproductive health, organism growth and species composition and distribution. Predicting when critical threshold values will be reached is crucial for projecting the future health of marine ecosystems and for marine resources planning and management. The impacts of ocean acidification will be first felt at the seasonal scale, however our understanding how seasonal variability will influence rates of future ocean acidification remains poorly constrained due to current model and data limitations. To address this issue, we first quantified the seasonal cycle of aragonite saturation state utilizing new data-based estimates of global ocean-surface dissolved inorganic carbon and alkalinity. This seasonality was then combined with earth system model projections under different emissions scenarios (representative concentration pathways; RCPs 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5) to provide new insights into future aragonite undersaturation onset. Under a high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5), our results suggest accounting for seasonality will bring forward the initial onset of month-long undersaturation by 17 ± 10 years compared to annual-mean estimates, with differences extending up to 35 ± 16 years in the North Pacific due to strong regional seasonality. This earlier onset will result in large-scale undersaturation once atmospheric CO2 reaches 496 ppm in the North Pacific and 511 ppm in the Southern Ocean, independent of emission scenario. This work suggests accounting for seasonality is critical to projecting the future impacts of ocean acidification on the marine environment.

Pancreatic islet isolation variables in non-human primates (rhesus macaques).

PubMed

Andrades, P; Asiedu, C K; Gansuvd, B; Inusah, S; Goodwin, K J; Deckard, L A; Jargal, U; Thomas, J M

2008-07-01

Non-human primates (NHPs) are important preclinical models for pancreatic islet transplantation (PIT) because of their close phylogenetic and immunological relationship with humans. However, low availability of NHP tissue, long learning curves and prohibitive expenses constrain the consistency of isolated NHP islets for PIT studies. To advance preclinical studies, we attempted to identify key variables that consistently influence the quantity and quality of NHP islets. Seventy-two consecutive pancreatic islet isolations from rhesus macaques were reviewed retrospectively. A scaled down, semi-automated islet isolation method was used, and monkeys with streptozotocin-induced diabetes, weighing 3-7 kg, served as recipients for allotransplantation. We analysed the effects of 22 independent variables grouped as donor factors, surgical factors and isolation technique factors. Islet yields, success of isolation and transplantation results were used as quantitative and qualitative outcomes. In the multivariate analysis, variables that significantly affected islet yield were the type of monkey, pancreas preservation, enzyme lot and volume of enzyme delivered. The variables associated with successful isolation were the enzyme lot and volume delivered. The transplant result was correlated with pancreas preservation, enzyme lot, endotoxin levels and COBE collection method. Islet quantity and quality are highly variable between isolations. The data reviewed suggest that future NHP isolations should use bilayer preservation, infuse more than 80 ml of Liberase into the pancreas, collect non-fractioned tissue from the COBE, and strictly monitor for infection.

Enhanced future variability during India's rainy season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menon, Arathy; Levermann, Anders; Schewe, Jacob

2013-04-01

The Indian summer monsoon shapes the livelihood of a large share of the world's population. About 80% of annual precipitation over India occurs during the monsoon season from June through September. Next to its seasonal mean rainfall the day-to-day variability is crucial for the risk of flooding, national water supply and agricultural productivity. Here we show that the latest ensemble of climate model simulations, prepared for the IPCC's AR-5, consistently projects significant increases in day-to-day rainfall variability under unmitigated climate change. While all models show an increase in day-to-day variability, some models are more realistic in capturing the observed seasonal mean rainfall over India than others. While no model's monsoon rainfall exceeds the observed value by more than two standard deviations, half of the models simulate a significantly weaker monsoon than observed. The relative increase in day-to-day variability by the year 2100 ranges from 15% to 48% under the strongest scenario (RCP-8.5), in the ten models which capture seasonal mean rainfall closest to observations. The variability increase per degree of global warming is independent of the scenario in most models, and is 8% +/- 4% per K on average. This consistent projection across 20 comprehensive climate models provides confidence in the results and suggests the necessity of profound adaptation measures in the case of unmitigated climate change.

Quantitative comparison of cognitive behavioral therapy and music therapy research: a methodological best-practices analysis to guide future investigation for adult psychiatric patients.

PubMed

Silverman, Michael J

2008-01-01

While the music therapy profession is relatively young and small in size, it can treat a variety of clinical populations and has established a diverse research base. However, although the profession originated working with persons diagnosed with mental illnesses, there is a considerable lack of quantitative research concerning the effects of music therapy with this population. Music therapy clinicians and researchers have reported on this lack of evidence and the difficulty in conducting psychosocial research on their interventions (Choi, 1997; Silverman, 2003a). While published studies have provided suggestions for future research, no studies have provided detailed propositions for the methodology and design of meticulous high quality randomized controlled psychiatric music therapy research. How do other psychotherapies accomplish their databases and could the music therapy field borrow from their rigorous "methodological best practices" to strengthen its own literature base? Therefore, as the National Institutes of Mental Health state the treatment of choice for evidence-based psychotherapy is cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT), aspects of this psychotherapy's literature base were analyzed. The purpose of this literature analysis was to (a) analyze and identify components of high-quality quantitative CBT research for adult psychiatric consumers, (b) analyze and identify the variables and other elements of existing quantitative psychiatric music therapy research for adult consumers, and (c) compare the two data sets to identify the best methodological designs and variables for future quantitative music therapy research with the mental health population. A table analyzing randomized and thoroughly controlled studies involving the use of CBT for persons with severe mental illnesses is included to determine chief components of high-quality experimental research designs and implementation of quantitative clinical research. The table also shows the same analyzed components for existing quantitative psychiatric music therapy research with adult consumers, thus highlighting potential areas and elements for future investigations. A second table depicts a number of potential dependent measures and their sources to be evaluated in future music therapy studies. A third table providing suggestions for future research is derived from a synthesis of the tables and is included to guide researchers and encourage the advancement and expansion of the current literature base. The body of the paper is a discussion of the results of the literature analysis derived from the tables, meta-analyses, and reviews of literature. It is hoped that this report will lead to the addition of future high-quality quantitative research to the psychiatric music therapy literature base and thus provide evidence-based services to as many persons with mental illnesses as possible.

Understanding surface-water availability in the Central Valley as a means to projecting future groundwater storage with climate variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goodrich, J. P.; Cayan, D. R.

2017-12-01

California's Central Valley (CV) relies heavily on diverted surface water and groundwater pumping to supply irrigated agriculture. However, understanding the spatiotemporal character of water availability in the CV is difficult because of the number of individual farms and local, state, and federal agencies involved in using and managing water. Here we use the Central Valley Hydrologic Model (CVHM), developed by the USGS, to understand the relationships between climatic variability, surface water inputs, and resulting groundwater use over the historical period 1970-2013. We analyzed monthly surface water diversion data from >500 CV locations. Principle components analyses were applied to drivers constructed from meteorological data, surface reservoir storage, ET, land use cover, and upstream inflows, to feed multiple regressions and identify factors most important in predicting surface water diversions. Two thirds of the diversion locations ( 80% of total diverted water) can be predicted to within 15%. Along with monthly inputs, representations of cumulative precipitation over the previous 3 to 36 months can explain an additional 10% of variance, depending on location, compared to results that excluded this information. Diversions in the southern CV are highly sensitive to inter-annual variability in precipitation (R2 = 0.8), whereby more surface water is used during wet years. Until recently, this was not the case in the northern and mid-CV, where diversions were relatively constant annually, suggesting relative insensitivity to drought. In contrast, this has important implications for drought response in southern regions (eg. Tulare Basin) where extended dry conditions can severely limit surface water supplies and lead to excess groundwater pumping, storage loss, and subsidence. In addition to fueling our understanding of spatiotemporal variability in diversions, our ability to predict these water balance components allows us to update CVHM predictions before surface water data are compiled. We can then develop groundwater pumping and storage predictions in real time, and make them available to water managers. In addition, we are working toward future projections by coupling the regional CVHM to downscaled GCM output to assess future scenarios of water availability in this critical region.

Associations between neighbourhood and household environmental variables and fruit consumption: exploration of mediation by individual cognitions and habit strength in the GLOBE study.

PubMed

Tak, Nannah I; te Velde, Saskia J; Kamphuis, Carlijn Bm; Ball, Kylie; Crawford, David; Brug, Johannes; van Lenthe, Frank J

2013-03-01

The present study examined associations of several home and neighbourhood environmental variables with fruit consumption and explored whether these associations were mediated by variables derived from the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) and by habit strength. Data of the Dutch GLOBE study on household and neighbourhood environment, fruit intake and related factors were used, obtained by self-administered questionnaires (cross-sectional), face-to-face interviews and audits. The city of Eindhoven in the Netherlands Adults (n 333; mean age 58 years, 54% female). Multiple mediation analyses were conducted using regression analyses to assess the association between environmental variables and fruit consumption, as well as mediation of these associations by TPB variables and by habit strength. Intention, perceived behaviour control, subjective norm and habit strength were associated with fruit intake. None of the neighbourhood environmental variables was directly or indirectly associated with fruit intake. The home environmental variable 'modelling behaviour by family members' was indirectly, but not directly, associated with fruit intake. Habit strength and perceived behaviour control explained most of the mediated effect (71.9%). Modelling behaviour by family members was indirectly associated with fruit intake through habit strength and perceived behaviour control. None of the neighbourhood variables was directly or indirectly, through any of the proposed mediators, associated with adult fruit intake. These findings suggest that future interventions promoting fruit intake should address a combination of the home environment (especially modelling behaviour by family members), TPB variables and habit strength for fruit intake.

Enhanced future variability during India's rainy season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menon, Arathy; Levermann, Anders; Schewe, Jacob

2013-06-01

The Indian summer monsoon shapes the livelihood of a large share of the world's population. About 80% of annual precipitation over India occurs during the monsoon season from June through September. Next to its seasonal mean rainfall, the day-to-day variability is crucial for the risk of flooding, national water supply, and agricultural productivity. Here we show that the latest ensemble of climate model simulations, prepared for the AR-5 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, consistently projects significant increases in day-to-day rainfall variability under unmitigated climate change. The relative increase by the period 2071-2100 with respect to the control period 1871-1900 ranges from 13% to 50% under the strongest scenario (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP-8.5), in the 10 models with the most realistic monsoon climatology; and 13% to 85% when all the 20 models are considered. The spread across models reduces when variability increase per degree of global warming is considered, which is independent of the scenario in most models, and is 8% ± 4%/K on average. This consistent projection across 20 comprehensive climate models provides confidence in the results and suggests the necessity of profound adaptation measures in the case of unmitigated climate change.

Millennia-long tree-ring records from Tasmania and New Zealand: a basis for modelling climate variability and forcing, past, present and future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cook, Edward R.; Buckley, Brendan M.; Palmer, Jonathan G.; Fenwick, Pavla; Peterson, Michael J.; Boswijk, Gretel; Fowler, Anthony

2006-10-01

Progress in the development of millennia-long tree-ring chronologies from Australia and New Zealand is reviewed from the perspective of modelling long-term climate variability there. Three tree species have proved successful in this regard: Huon pine (Lagarostrobos franklinii) from Tasmania, silver pine (L. colensoi) from the South Island of New Zealand, and kauri (Agathis australis) from the North Island of New Zealand. Each of these species is very long-lived and produces abundant quantities of well-preserved wood for extending their tree-ring chronologies back several millennia into the past. The growth patterns on these chronologies strongly correlate with both local and regional warm-season temperature changes over significant areas of the Southern Hemisphere (especially Huon and silver pine) and to ENSO variability emanating from the equatorial Pacific region (especially kauri). In addition, there is evidence for significant, band-limited, multi-decadal and centennial timescale variability in the warm-season temperature reconstruction based on Huon pine tree rings that may be related to slowly varying changes in ocean circulation dynamics in the southern Indian Ocean. This suggests the possibility of long-term climate predictability there. Copyright

Multicriteria evaluation of discharge simulation in Dynamic Global Vegetation Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Hui; Piao, Shilong; Zeng, Zhenzhong; Ciais, Philippe; Yin, Yi; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Sitch, Stephen; Ahlström, Anders; Guimberteau, Matthieu; Huntingford, Chris; Levis, Sam; Levy, Peter E.; Huang, Mengtian; Li, Yue; Li, Xiran; Lomas, Mark R.; Peylin, Philippe; Poulter, Ben; Viovy, Nicolas; Zaehle, Soenke; Zeng, Ning; Zhao, Fang; Wang, Lei

2015-08-01

In this study, we assessed the performance of discharge simulations by coupling the runoff from seven Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs; LPJ, ORCHIDEE, Sheffield-DGVM, TRIFFID, LPJ-GUESS, CLM4CN, and OCN) to one river routing model for 16 large river basins. The results show that the seasonal cycle of river discharge is generally modeled well in the low and middle latitudes but not in the high latitudes, where the peak discharge (due to snow and ice melting) is underestimated. For the annual mean discharge, the DGVMs chained with the routing model show an underestimation. Furthermore, the 30 year trend of discharge is also underestimated. For the interannual variability of discharge, a skill score based on overlapping of probability density functions (PDFs) suggests that most models correctly reproduce the observed variability (correlation coefficient higher than 0.5; i.e., models account for 50% of observed interannual variability) except for the Lena, Yenisei, Yukon, and the Congo river basins. In addition, we compared the simulated runoff from different simulations where models were forced with either fixed or varying land use. This suggests that both seasonal and annual mean runoff has been little affected by land use change but that the trend itself of runoff is sensitive to land use change. None of the models when considered individually show significantly better performances than any other and in all basins. This suggests that based on current modeling capability, a regional-weighted average of multimodel ensemble projections might be appropriate to reduce the bias in future projection of global river discharge.

Multi-criteria Evaluation of Discharge Simulation in Dynamic Global Vegetation Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, H.; Piao, S.; Zeng, Z.; Ciais, P.; Yin, Y.; Friedlingstein, P.; Sitch, S.; Ahlström, A.; Guimberteau, M.; Huntingford, C.; Levis, S.; Levy, P. E.; Huang, M.; Li, Y.; Li, X.; Lomas, M.; Peylin, P. P.; Poulter, B.; Viovy, N.; Zaehle, S.; Zeng, N.; Zhao, F.; Wang, L.

2015-12-01

In this study, we assessed the performance of discharge simulations by coupling the runoff from seven Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs; LPJ, ORCHIDEE, Sheffield-DGVM, TRIFFID, LPJ-GUESS, CLM4CN, and OCN) to one river routing model for 16 large river basins. The results show that the seasonal cycle of river discharge is generally modelled well in the low and mid latitudes, but not in the high latitudes, where the peak discharge (due to snow and ice melting) is underestimated. For the annual mean discharge, the DGVMs chained with the routing model show an underestimation. Furthermore the 30-year trend of discharge is also under-estimated. For the inter-annual variability of discharge, a skill score based on overlapping of probability density functions (PDFs) suggests that most models correctly reproduce the observed variability (correlation coefficient higher than 0.5; i.e. models account for 50% of observed inter-annual variability) except for the Lena, Yenisei, Yukon, and the Congo river basins. In addition, we compared the simulated runoff from different simulations where models were forced with either fixed or varying land use. This suggests that both seasonal and annual mean runoff has been little affected by land use change, but that the trend itself of runoff is sensitive to land use change. None of the models when considered individually show significantly better performances than any other and in all basins. This suggests that based on current modelling capability, a regional-weighted average of multi-model ensemble projections might be appropriate to reduce the bias in future projection of global river discharge.

The Relationships among Imagination, Future Imagination Tendency, and Future Time Perspective of Junior High School Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tsai, Min-Ying

2015-01-01

The main purpose of the study were to investigate the relationships among imagination, future imagination tendency, and future time perspective of junior high school students, then to explore the future time perspective which is predicted by background variables, imaginative qualities, and future imagination tendency. The subjects were 331 from…

Incorporating abundance information and guiding variable selection for climate-based ensemble forecasting of species' distributional shifts.

PubMed

Tanner, Evan P; Papeş, Monica; Elmore, R Dwayne; Fuhlendorf, Samuel D; Davis, Craig A

2017-01-01

Ecological niche models (ENMs) have increasingly been used to estimate the potential effects of climate change on species' distributions worldwide. Recently, predictions of species abundance have also been obtained with such models, though knowledge about the climatic variables affecting species abundance is often lacking. To address this, we used a well-studied guild (temperate North American quail) and the Maxent modeling algorithm to compare model performance of three variable selection approaches: correlation/variable contribution (CVC), biological (i.e., variables known to affect species abundance), and random. We then applied the best approach to forecast potential distributions, under future climatic conditions, and analyze future potential distributions in light of available abundance data and presence-only occurrence data. To estimate species' distributional shifts we generated ensemble forecasts using four global circulation models, four representative concentration pathways, and two time periods (2050 and 2070). Furthermore, we present distributional shifts where 75%, 90%, and 100% of our ensemble models agreed. The CVC variable selection approach outperformed our biological approach for four of the six species. Model projections indicated species-specific effects of climate change on future distributions of temperate North American quail. The Gambel's quail (Callipepla gambelii) was the only species predicted to gain area in climatic suitability across all three scenarios of ensemble model agreement. Conversely, the scaled quail (Callipepla squamata) was the only species predicted to lose area in climatic suitability across all three scenarios of ensemble model agreement. Our models projected future loss of areas for the northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) and scaled quail in portions of their distributions which are currently areas of high abundance. Climatic variables that influence local abundance may not always scale up to influence species' distributions. Special attention should be given to selecting variables for ENMs, and tests of model performance should be used to validate the choice of variables.

Partitioning uncertainty in streamflow projections under nonstationary model conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chawla, Ila; Mujumdar, P. P.

2018-02-01

Assessing the impacts of Land Use (LU) and climate change on future streamflow projections is necessary for efficient management of water resources. However, model projections are burdened with significant uncertainty arising from various sources. Most of the previous studies have considered climate models and scenarios as major sources of uncertainty, but uncertainties introduced by land use change and hydrologic model assumptions are rarely investigated. In this paper an attempt is made to segregate the contribution from (i) general circulation models (GCMs), (ii) emission scenarios, (iii) land use scenarios, (iv) stationarity assumption of the hydrologic model, and (v) internal variability of the processes, to overall uncertainty in streamflow projections using analysis of variance (ANOVA) approach. Generally, most of the impact assessment studies are carried out with unchanging hydrologic model parameters in future. It is, however, necessary to address the nonstationarity in model parameters with changing land use and climate. In this paper, a regression based methodology is presented to obtain the hydrologic model parameters with changing land use and climate scenarios in future. The Upper Ganga Basin (UGB) in India is used as a case study to demonstrate the methodology. The semi-distributed Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model is set-up over the basin, under nonstationary conditions. Results indicate that model parameters vary with time, thereby invalidating the often-used assumption of model stationarity. The streamflow in UGB under the nonstationary model condition is found to reduce in future. The flows are also found to be sensitive to changes in land use. Segregation results suggest that model stationarity assumption and GCMs along with their interactions with emission scenarios, act as dominant sources of uncertainty. This paper provides a generalized framework for hydrologists to examine stationarity assumption of models before considering them for future streamflow projections and segregate the contribution of various sources to the uncertainty.

Will Outer Tropical Cyclone Size Change due to Anthropogenic Warming?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schenkel, B. A.; Lin, N.; Chavas, D. R.; Vecchi, G. A.; Knutson, T. R.; Oppenheimer, M.

2017-12-01

Prior research has shown significant interbasin and intrabasin variability in outer tropical cyclone (TC) size. Moreover, outer TC size has even been shown to vary substantially over the lifetime of the majority of TCs. However, the factors responsible for both setting initial outer TC size and determining its evolution throughout the TC lifetime remain uncertain. Given these gaps in our physical understanding, there remains uncertainty in how outer TC size will change, if at all, due to anthropogenic warming. The present study seeks to quantify whether outer TC size will change significantly in response to anthropogenic warming using data from a high-resolution global climate model and a regional hurricane model. Similar to prior work, the outer TC size metric used in this study is the radius in which the azimuthal-mean surface azimuthal wind equals 8 m/s. The initial results from the high-resolution global climate model data suggest that the distribution of outer TC size shifts significantly towards larger values in each global TC basin during future climates, as revealed by 1) statistically significant increase of the median outer TC size by 5-10% (p<0.05) according to a 1,000-sample bootstrap resampling approach with replacement and 2) statistically significant differences between distributions of outer TC size from current and future climate simulations as shown using two-sample Kolmogorov Smirnov testing (p<<0.01). Additional analysis of the high-resolution global climate model data reveals that outer TC size does not uniformly increase within each basin in future climates, but rather shows substantial locational dependence. Future work will incorporate the regional mesoscale hurricane model data to help focus on identifying the source of the spatial variability in outer TC size increases within each basin during future climates and, more importantly, why outer TC size changes in response to anthropogenic warming.

Quantifying the historic and future distribution of fire in Alaskan tundra ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Young, A. M.; Higuera, P. E.; Duffy, P. A.

2012-12-01

During the past 60 years fire has been relatively rare and small in size within tundra ecosystems. However, historical observations and paleoecological evidence indicates that fire regimes vary widely across Alaskan tundra, in both space and time. These lines of evidence suggest that fire occupies a highly specified niche or ecological space in Alaskan tundra, which may change significantly with future climate warming. The objective of this research was to quantify the relationships between fire occurrence and different seasonal climate variables, and to begin to make inferences about future distributions of fire across the tundra landscape. The results of this research will ultimately contribute to the goal of summarizing the linkages that exist among climate, vegetation, and fire in the historical record, and for making predictions concerning fire disturbance in tundra ecosystems throughout the next century. Historic tundra fires occurred non-randomly across space, and a relationship exists between fire occurrence and warm, dry climates. We quantified this relationship with generalized boosting models (GBM) using datasets of downscaled temperature and precipitation (2 km, 1971-2000), and historic records of tundra area burned (1950-2010). The GBM used six seasonal climate variables, focused on growing season temperature and precipitation, to predict the probability of fire occurrence over the 1950-2010 time period. To understand implications of these historic relationships given ongoing climate warming, we constructed future climatologies of temperature and precipitation for the five GCMs which performed best in Alaska under the IPCC AR4 A1B (middle-of-the-road) emissions scenario for the time period 2021-2050. The GBM performed well predicting the observed spatial distribution of tundra area burned, capturing key regions which experienced the most fire activity from 1950-2010. The mean temperature of the warmest month (MeanMaxTemp) was the most influential variable in the GBM, and partial dependence plots revealed a strong non-linear relationship between the probability of fire and MeanMaxTemp, with a distinct temperature threshold of approximately 12.0 oC. Climate projections in Alaskan tundra (2021-2050) from the five GCMs was on average 2.1 oC warmer (SD = 0.3 oC) than the 1971-2000 mean. During the 1971-2000 period, 62% of tundra existed above the 12.0 oC threshold. In contrast, four of the five GCMs predicted more tundra area will exist above this same temperature threshold during the 2021-2050 period (mean=77%, min=48%, max=93%), with large increases occurring on the North Slope. Ongoing work includes applying this GBM to future climate conditions to provide quantitative estimates of future tundra burning. Our results suggest that the ecological space that currently supports tundra burning will become more common during the next century. A more flammable tundra landscape could contribute to increased land surface temperatures through feedbacks between fire, increased carbon flux from the soil to atmosphere, and decreased albedo through vegetation succession. Given the rapid environmental changes projected for the Arctic throughout the next century, it is imperative that we understand when and where fire regimes are changing, not only across Alaskan tundra but across the global tundra biome as well.

The influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation regimes on eastern African vegetation and its future implications under the RCP8.5 warming scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fer, Istem; Tietjen, Britta; Jeltsch, Florian; Wolff, Christian

2017-09-01

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the main driver of the interannual variability in eastern African rainfall, with a significant impact on vegetation and agriculture and dire consequences for food and social security. In this study, we identify and quantify the ENSO contribution to the eastern African rainfall variability to forecast future eastern African vegetation response to rainfall variability related to a predicted intensified ENSO. To differentiate the vegetation variability due to ENSO, we removed the ENSO signal from the climate data using empirical orthogonal teleconnection (EOT) analysis. Then, we simulated the ecosystem carbon and water fluxes under the historical climate without components related to ENSO teleconnections. We found ENSO-driven patterns in vegetation response and confirmed that EOT analysis can successfully produce coupled tropical Pacific sea surface temperature-eastern African rainfall teleconnection from observed datasets. We further simulated eastern African vegetation response under future climate change as it is projected by climate models and under future climate change combined with a predicted increased ENSO intensity. Our EOT analysis highlights that climate simulations are still not good at capturing rainfall variability due to ENSO, and as we show here the future vegetation would be different from what is simulated under these climate model outputs lacking accurate ENSO contribution. We simulated considerable differences in eastern African vegetation growth under the influence of an intensified ENSO regime which will bring further environmental stress to a region with a reduced capacity to adapt effects of global climate change and food security.

Assessment of climate change impacts on climate variables using probabilistic ensemble modeling and trend analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Safavi, Hamid R.; Sajjadi, Sayed Mahdi; Raghibi, Vahid

2017-10-01

Water resources in snow-dependent regions have undergone significant changes due to climate change. Snow measurements in these regions have revealed alarming declines in snowfall over the past few years. The Zayandeh-Rud River in central Iran chiefly depends on winter falls as snow for supplying water from wet regions in high Zagrous Mountains to the downstream, (semi-)arid, low-lying lands. In this study, the historical records (baseline: 1971-2000) of climate variables (temperature and precipitation) in the wet region were chosen to construct a probabilistic ensemble model using 15 GCMs in order to forecast future trends and changes while the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) was utilized to project climate variables under two A2 and B1 scenarios to a future period (2015-2044). Since future snow water equivalent (SWE) forecasts by GCMs were not available for the study area, an artificial neural network (ANN) was implemented to build a relationship between climate variables and snow water equivalent for the baseline period to estimate future snowfall amounts. As a last step, homogeneity and trend tests were performed to evaluate the robustness of the data series and changes were examined to detect past and future variations. Results indicate different characteristics of the climate variables at upstream stations. A shift is observed in the type of precipitation from snow to rain as well as in its quantities across the subregions. The key role in these shifts and the subsequent side effects such as water losses is played by temperature.

The Dynamics of Vulnerability and Implications for Climate Change Adaptation: Lessons from Urban Water Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dilling, L.; Daly, M.; Travis, W.; Wilhelmi, O.; Klein, R.; Kenney, D.; Ray, A. J.; Miller, K.

2013-12-01

Recent reports and scholarship have suggested that adapting to current climate variability may represent a "no regrets" strategy for adapting to climate change. Filling "adaptation deficits" and other approaches that rely on addressing current vulnerabilities are of course helpful for responding to current climate variability, but we find here that they are not sufficient for adapting to climate change. First, following a comprehensive review and unique synthesis of the natural hazards and climate adaptation literatures, we advance six reasons why adapting to climate variability is not sufficient for adapting to climate change: 1) Vulnerability is different at different levels of exposure; 2) Coping with climate variability is not equivalent to adaptation to longer term change; 3) The socioeconomic context for vulnerability is constantly changing; 4) The perception of risk associated with climate variability does not necessarily promote adaptive behavior in the face of climate change; 5) Adaptations made to short term climate variability may reduce the flexibility of the system in the long term; and 6) Adaptive actions may shift vulnerabilities to other parts of the system or to other people. Instead we suggest that decision makers faced with choices to adapt to climate change must consider the dynamics of vulnerability in a connected system-- how choices made in one part of the system might impact other valued outcomes or even create new vulnerabilities. Furthermore we suggest that rather than expressing climate change adaptation as an extension of adaptation to climate variability, the research and practice communities would do well to articulate adaptation as an imperfect policy, with tradeoffs and consequences and that decisions be prioritized to preserve flexibility be revisited often as climate change unfolds. We then present the results of a number of empirical studies of decision making for drought in urban water systems in the United States to understand: a) the variety of actions taken; b) the limitations of actions available to water managers; and c) the effectiveness of actions taken to date. Time permitting, we briefly present the results of 3 in-depth case studies of drought response and current perception of preparedness with respect to future drought and climate change among urban water system managers. We examine the role of governance, system connectivity, public perceptions and other factors in driving decision making and outcomes.

Coral Luminescence Identifies the Pacific Decadal Oscillation as a Primary Driver of River Runoff Variability Impacting the Southern Great Barrier Reef

PubMed Central

Rodriguez-Ramirez, Alberto; Grove, Craig A.; Zinke, Jens; Pandolfi, John M.; Zhao, Jian-xin

2014-01-01

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a large-scale climatic phenomenon modulating ocean-atmosphere variability on decadal time scales. While precipitation and river flow variability in the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) catchments are sensitive to PDO phases, the extent to which the PDO influences coral reefs is poorly understood. Here, six Porites coral cores were used to produce a composite record of coral luminescence variability (runoff proxy) and identify drivers of terrestrial influence on the Keppel reefs, southern GBR. We found that coral skeletal luminescence effectively captured seasonal, inter-annual and decadal variability of river discharge and rainfall from the Fitzroy River catchment. Most importantly, although the influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events was evident in the luminescence records, the variability in the coral luminescence composite record was significantly explained by the PDO. Negative luminescence anomalies (reduced runoff) were associated with El Niño years during positive PDO phases while positive luminescence anomalies (increased runoff) coincided with strong/moderate La Niña years during negative PDO phases. This study provides clear evidence that not only ENSO but also the PDO have significantly affected runoff regimes at the Keppel reefs for at least a century, and suggests that upcoming hydrological disturbances and ecological responses in the southern GBR region will be mediated by the future evolution of these sources of climate variability. PMID:24416214

Mediators of weight loss in a family-based intervention presented over the internet.

PubMed

White, Marney A; Martin, Pamela D; Newton, Robert L; Walden, Heather M; York-Crowe, Emily E; Gordon, Stewart T; Ryan, Donna H; Williamson, Donald A

2004-07-01

To assess the process variables involved in a weight loss program for African-American adolescent girls. Several process variables have been identified as affecting success in in vivo weight loss programs for adults and children, including program adherence, self-efficacy, and social support. The current study sought to broaden the understanding of these process variables as they pertain to an intervention program that is presented using the Internet. It was hypothesized that variables such as program adherence, dietary self-efficacy, psychological factors, and family environment factors would mediate the effect of the experimental condition on weight loss. Participants were 57 adolescent African-American girls who joined the program with one obese parent; family pairs were randomized to either a behavioral or control condition in an Internet-based weight loss program. Outcome data (weight loss) are reported for the first 6 months of the intervention. Results partially supported the hypotheses. For weight loss among adolescents, parent variables pertaining to life and family satisfaction were the strongest mediating variables. For parental weight loss, changes in dietary practices over the course of 6 months were the strongest mediators. The identification of factors that enhance or impede weight loss for adolescents is an important step in improving weight loss programs for this group. The current findings suggest that family/parental variables exert a strong influence on weight loss efforts for adolescents and should be considered in developing future programs. Copyright 2004 NAASO

Coral luminescence identifies the Pacific Decadal Oscillation as a primary driver of river runoff variability impacting the southern Great Barrier Reef.

PubMed

Rodriguez-Ramirez, Alberto; Grove, Craig A; Zinke, Jens; Pandolfi, John M; Zhao, Jian-xin

2014-01-01

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a large-scale climatic phenomenon modulating ocean-atmosphere variability on decadal time scales. While precipitation and river flow variability in the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) catchments are sensitive to PDO phases, the extent to which the PDO influences coral reefs is poorly understood. Here, six Porites coral cores were used to produce a composite record of coral luminescence variability (runoff proxy) and identify drivers of terrestrial influence on the Keppel reefs, southern GBR. We found that coral skeletal luminescence effectively captured seasonal, inter-annual and decadal variability of river discharge and rainfall from the Fitzroy River catchment. Most importantly, although the influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events was evident in the luminescence records, the variability in the coral luminescence composite record was significantly explained by the PDO. Negative luminescence anomalies (reduced runoff) were associated with El Niño years during positive PDO phases while positive luminescence anomalies (increased runoff) coincided with strong/moderate La Niña years during negative PDO phases. This study provides clear evidence that not only ENSO but also the PDO have significantly affected runoff regimes at the Keppel reefs for at least a century, and suggests that upcoming hydrological disturbances and ecological responses in the southern GBR region will be mediated by the future evolution of these sources of climate variability.

Application of Climate Assessment Tool (CAT) to estimate climate variability impacts on nutrient loading from local watersheds

Treesearch

Ying Ouyang; Prem B. Parajuli; Gary Feng; Theodor D. Leininger; Yongshan Wan; Padmanava Dash

2018-01-01

A vast amount of future climate scenario datasets, created by climate models such as general circulation models (GCMs), have been used in conjunction with watershed models to project future climate variability impact on hydrological processes and water quality. However, these low spatial-temporal resolution datasets are often difficult to downscale spatially and...

Towards a More Biologically-meaningful Climate Characterization: Variability in Space and Time at Multiple Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Christianson, D. S.; Kaufman, C. G.; Kueppers, L. M.; Harte, J.

2013-12-01

Sampling limitations and current modeling capacity justify the common use of mean temperature values in summaries of historical climate and future projections. However, a monthly mean temperature representing a 1-km2 area on the landscape is often unable to capture the climate complexity driving organismal and ecological processes. Estimates of variability in addition to mean values are more biologically meaningful and have been shown to improve projections of range shifts for certain species. Historical analyses of variance and extreme events at coarse spatial scales, as well as coarse-scale projections, show increasing temporal variability in temperature with warmer means. Few studies have considered how spatial variance changes with warming, and analysis for both temporal and spatial variability across scales is lacking. It is unclear how the spatial variability of fine-scale conditions relevant to plant and animal individuals may change given warmer coarse-scale mean values. A change in spatial variability will affect the availability of suitable habitat on the landscape and thus, will influence future species ranges. By characterizing variability across both temporal and spatial scales, we can account for potential bias in species range projections that use coarse climate data and enable improvements to current models. In this study, we use temperature data at multiple spatial and temporal scales to characterize spatial and temporal variability under a warmer climate, i.e., increased mean temperatures. Observational data from the Sierra Nevada (California, USA), experimental climate manipulation data from the eastern and western slopes of the Rocky Mountains (Colorado, USA), projected CMIP5 data for California (USA) and observed PRISM data (USA) allow us to compare characteristics of a mean-variance relationship across spatial scales ranging from sub-meter2 to 10,000 km2 and across temporal scales ranging from hours to decades. Preliminary spatial analysis at fine-spatial scales (sub-meter to 10-meter) shows greater temperature variability with warmer mean temperatures. This is inconsistent with the inherent assumption made in current species distribution models that fine-scale variability is static, implying that current projections of future species ranges may be biased -- the direction and magnitude requiring further study. While we focus our findings on the cross-scaling characteristics of temporal and spatial variability, we also compare the mean-variance relationship between 1) experimental climate manipulations and observed conditions and 2) temporal versus spatial variance, i.e., variability in a time-series at one location vs. variability across a landscape at a single time. The former informs the rich debate concerning the ability to experimentally mimic a warmer future. The latter informs space-for-time study design and analyses, as well as species persistence via a combined spatiotemporal probability of suitable future habitat.

The relative impacts of climate and land-use change on conterminous United States bird species from 2001 to 2075

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sohl, Terry L.

2014-01-01

Species distribution models often use climate data to assess contemporary and/or future ranges for animal or plant species. Land use and land cover (LULC) data are important predictor variables for determining species range, yet are rarely used when modeling future distributions. In this study, maximum entropy modeling was used to construct species distribution maps for 50 North American bird species to determine relative contributions of climate and LULC for contemporary (2001) and future (2075) time periods. Species presence data were used as a dependent variable, while climate, LULC, and topographic data were used as predictor variables. Results varied by species, but in general, measures of model fit for 2001 indicated significantly poorer fit when either climate or LULC data were excluded from model simulations. Climate covariates provided a higher contribution to 2001 model results than did LULC variables, although both categories of variables strongly contributed. The area deemed to be "suitable" for 2001 species presence was strongly affected by the choice of model covariates, with significantly larger ranges predicted when LULC was excluded as a covariate. Changes in species ranges for 2075 indicate much larger overall range changes due to projected climate change than due to projected LULC change. However, the choice of study area impacted results for both current and projected model applications, with truncation of actual species ranges resulting in lower model fit scores and increased difficulty in interpreting covariate impacts on species range. Results indicate species-specific response to climate and LULC variables; however, both climate and LULC variables clearly are important for modeling both contemporary and potential future species ranges.

The Relative Impacts of Climate and Land-Use Change on Conterminous United States Bird Species from 2001 to 2075

PubMed Central

Sohl, Terry L.

2014-01-01

Species distribution models often use climate data to assess contemporary and/or future ranges for animal or plant species. Land use and land cover (LULC) data are important predictor variables for determining species range, yet are rarely used when modeling future distributions. In this study, maximum entropy modeling was used to construct species distribution maps for 50 North American bird species to determine relative contributions of climate and LULC for contemporary (2001) and future (2075) time periods. Species presence data were used as a dependent variable, while climate, LULC, and topographic data were used as predictor variables. Results varied by species, but in general, measures of model fit for 2001 indicated significantly poorer fit when either climate or LULC data were excluded from model simulations. Climate covariates provided a higher contribution to 2001 model results than did LULC variables, although both categories of variables strongly contributed. The area deemed to be “suitable” for 2001 species presence was strongly affected by the choice of model covariates, with significantly larger ranges predicted when LULC was excluded as a covariate. Changes in species ranges for 2075 indicate much larger overall range changes due to projected climate change than due to projected LULC change. However, the choice of study area impacted results for both current and projected model applications, with truncation of actual species ranges resulting in lower model fit scores and increased difficulty in interpreting covariate impacts on species range. Results indicate species-specific response to climate and LULC variables; however, both climate and LULC variables clearly are important for modeling both contemporary and potential future species ranges. PMID:25372571

Carbon cycle responses of semi-arid ecosystems to positive asymmetry in rainfall.

PubMed

Haverd, Vanessa; Ahlström, Anders; Smith, Benjamin; Canadell, Josep G

2017-02-01

Recent evidence shows that warm semi-arid ecosystems are playing a disproportionate role in the interannual variability and greening trend of the global carbon cycle given their mean lower productivity when compared with other biomes (Ahlström et al. 2015 Science, 348, 895). Using multiple observations (land-atmosphere fluxes, biomass, streamflow and remotely sensed vegetation cover) and two state-of-the-art biospheric models, we show that climate variability and extremes lead to positive or negative responses in the biosphere, depending on vegetation type. We find Australia to be a global hot spot for variability, with semi-arid ecosystems in that country exhibiting increased carbon uptake due to both asymmetry in the interannual distribution of rainfall (extrinsic forcing), and asymmetry in the response of gross primary production (GPP) to rainfall change (intrinsic response). The latter is attributable to the pulse-response behaviour of the drought-adapted biota of these systems, a response that is estimated to be as much as half of that from the CO 2 fertilization effect during 1990-2013. Mesic ecosystems, lacking drought-adapted species, did not show an intrinsic asymmetric response. Our findings suggest that a future more variable climate will induce large but contrasting ecosystem responses, differing among biomes globally, independent of changes in mean precipitation alone. The most significant changes are occurring in the extensive arid and semi-arid regions, and we suggest that the reported increased carbon uptake in response to asymmetric responses might be contributing to the observed greening trends there. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Exposure and response prevention process predicts treatment outcome in youth with OCD.

PubMed

Kircanski, Katharina; Peris, Tara S

2015-04-01

Recent research on the treatment of adults with anxiety disorders suggests that aspects of the in-session exposure therapy process are relevant to clinical outcomes. However, few comprehensive studies have been conducted with children and adolescents. In the present study, 35 youth diagnosed with primary obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD; M age = 12.9 years, 49% male, 63% Caucasian) completed 12 sessions of exposure and response prevention (ERP) in one of two treatment conditions as part of a pilot randomized controlled testing of a family focused intervention for OCD. Key exposure process variables, including youth self-reported distress during ERP and the quantity and quality of ERP completed, were computed. These variables were examined as predictors of treatment outcomes assessed at mid-treatment, post-treatment, and three-month follow-up, partialing treatment condition. In general, greater variability of distress during ERP and completing a greater proportion of combined exposures (i.e., exposures targeting more than one OC symptom at once) were predictive of better outcomes. Conversely, greater distress at the end of treatment was generally predictive of poorer outcomes. Finally, several variables, including within- and between-session decreases in distress during ERP, were not consistently predictive of outcomes. Findings signal potentially important facets of exposure for youth with OCD and have implications for treatment. A number of results also parallel recent findings in the adult literature, suggesting that there may be some continuity in exposure processes from child to adult development. Future work should examine additional measures of exposure process, such as psychophysiological arousal during exposure, in youth.

Insight on invasions and resilience derived from spatiotemporal discontinuities of biomass at local and regional scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Angeler, David G.; Allen, Criag R.; Johnson, Richard K.

2012-01-01

Understanding the social and ecological consequences of species invasions is complicated by nonlinearities in processes, and differences in process and structure as scale is changed. Here we use discontinuity analyses to investigate nonlinear patterns in the distribution of biomass of an invasive nuisance species that could indicate scale-specific organization. We analyze biomass patterns in the flagellate Gonyostomum semen (Raphidophyta) in 75 boreal lakes during an 11-year period (1997-2007). With simulations using a unimodal null model and cluster analysis, we identified regional groupings of lakes based on their biomass patterns. We evaluated the variability of membership of individual lakes in regional biomass groups. Temporal trends in local and regional discontinuity patterns were analyzed using regressions and correlations with environmental variables that characterize nutrient conditions, acidity status, temperature variability, and water clarity. Regionally, there was a significant increase in the number of biomass groups over time, indicative of an increased number of scales at which algal biomass organizes across lakes. This increased complexity correlated with the invasion history of G. semen and broad-scale environmental change (recovery from acidification). Locally, no consistent patterns of lake membership to regional biomass groups were observed, and correlations with environmental variables were lake specific. The increased complexity of regional biomass patterns suggests that processes that act within or between scales reinforce the presence of G. semen and its potential to develop high-biomass blooms in boreal lakes. Emergent regional patterns combined with locally stochastic dynamics suggest a bleak future for managing G. semen, and more generally why invasive species can be ecologically successful.

The U.S. Geological Survey Monthly Water Balance Model Futures Portal

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bock, Andrew R.; Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steven L.; Emmerich, Christopher; Talbert, Marian

2017-05-03

The U.S. Geological Survey Monthly Water Balance Model Futures Portal (https://my.usgs.gov/mows/) is a user-friendly interface that summarizes monthly historical and simulated future conditions for seven hydrologic and meteorological variables (actual evapotranspiration, potential evapotranspiration, precipitation, runoff, snow water equivalent, atmospheric temperature, and streamflow) at locations across the conterminous United States (CONUS).The estimates of these hydrologic and meteorological variables were derived using a Monthly Water Balance Model (MWBM), a modular system that simulates monthly estimates of components of the hydrologic cycle using monthly precipitation and atmospheric temperature inputs. Precipitation and atmospheric temperature from 222 climate datasets spanning historical conditions (1952 through 2005) and simulated future conditions (2020 through 2099) were summarized for hydrographic features and used to drive the MWBM for the CONUS. The MWBM input and output variables were organized into an open-access database. An Open Geospatial Consortium, Inc., Web Feature Service allows the querying and identification of hydrographic features across the CONUS. To connect the Web Feature Service to the open-access database, a user interface—the Monthly Water Balance Model Futures Portal—was developed to allow the dynamic generation of summary files and plots  based on plot type, geographic location, specific climate datasets, period of record, MWBM variable, and other options. Both the plots and the data files are made available to the user for download 

Variable Star Catalogs: Their Past, Present and Future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samus, N. N.; Kazarovets, E. V.; Kireeva, N. N.; Pastukhova, E. N.; Durlevich, O. V.

2010-02-01

After the second World War, the International Astronomical Union made astronomers of the Soviet Union responsible for variable-star catalogues. This work has been continued ever since the first edition of the General Catalogue of Variable Stars compiled by the team headed by P. P. Parenago and B. V. Kukarkin and published in 1948. Currently, the catalogue work is a joint project of the Institute of Astronomy (Russian Academy of Sciences) and Sternberg Astronomical Institute (Moscow University). This paper is a brief review of recent trends in the field of variable-star catalogues. We discuss problems as well as new prospects related to modern large-scale automatic photometric sky surveys, and outline the state of discussions on the future of the variable-star catalogues in the profile commissions of the IAU.

Social skills, friendship and happiness: a cross-cultural investigation.

PubMed

Demir, Melikşah; Jaafar, Jas; Bilyk, Nicholas; Ariff, Mohammad Raduan Mohd

2012-01-01

The present study investigated the associations between social skills, friendship quality, and happiness, and tested a mediational model positing that friendship quality would mediate the relationship between social skills and happiness among American and Malaysian college students. Although American students reported significantly higher levels of psychosocial well-being than Malaysian students, the study variables were positively associated with each other in both cultures. More importantly, findings supported the proposed model in both groups. Results suggest that part of the reason why social skills are associated with positive psychological well-being is because of friendship experiences. Overall, the findings of the present study reinforce, extend and cross-culturally generalize the presumed benefits of social skills in positive well-being elaborated by Segrin and Taylor (2007). The authors also provided suggestions for future research.

The conceptualization and measurement of cognitive health sophistication.

PubMed

Bodie, Graham D; Collins, William B; Jensen, Jakob D; Davis, Lashara A; Guntzviller, Lisa M; King, Andy J

2013-01-01

This article develops a conceptualization and measure of cognitive health sophistication--the complexity of an individual's conceptual knowledge about health. Study 1 provides initial validity evidence for the measure--the Healthy-Unhealthy Other Instrument--by showing its association with other cognitive health constructs indicative of higher health sophistication. Study 2 presents data from a sample of low-income adults to provide evidence that the measure does not depend heavily on health-related vocabulary or ethnicity. Results from both studies suggest that the Healthy-Unhealthy Other Instrument can be used to capture variability in the sophistication or complexity of an individual's health-related schematic structures on the basis of responses to two simple open-ended questions. Methodological advantages of the Healthy-Unhealthy Other Instrument and suggestions for future research are highlighted in the discussion.

New insight into the physics of atmospheres of early type stars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lamers, H. J. G. L. M.

1981-01-01

The phenomenon of mass loss and stellar winds from hot stars are discussed. The mass loss rate of early type stars increases by about a factor of 100 to 1000 during their evolution. This seems incompatible with the radiation driven wind models and may require another explanation for the mass loss from early type stars. The winds of early type stars are strongly variable and the stars may go through active phases. Eclipses in binary systems by the stellar winds can be used to probe the winds. A few future IUE studies are suggested.

Obsessive-compulsive disorder and romantic functioning.

PubMed

Abbey, Richard D; Clopton, James R; Humphreys, Joy D

2007-12-01

The current study examined the romantic relationships of individuals with obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD). Participants were 64 individuals recruited from a national conference who completed measures of OCD symptoms, depressive symptoms, intimacy, self-disclosure, relationship satisfaction, and relationship worry. Severity of obsessions was negatively correlated with intimacy, relationship satisfaction, and self-disclosure. In contrast, two compulsive behaviors (washing and neutralizing) were positively correlated with several relationship variables. Fears of contamination from sexual activity were positively correlated with the severity of OCD symptoms. The clinical implications of the findings from this study and suggestions for future research are presented.

Future shift of the relative roles of precipitation and temperature in controlling annual runoff in the conterminous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duan, Kai; Sun, Ge; McNulty, Steven G.; Caldwell, Peter V.; Cohen, Erika C.; Sun, Shanlei; Aldridge, Heather D.; Zhou, Decheng; Zhang, Liangxia; Zhang, Yang

2017-11-01

This study examines the relative roles of climatic variables in altering annual runoff in the conterminous United States (CONUS) in the 21st century, using a monthly ecohydrological model (the Water Supply Stress Index model, WaSSI) driven with historical records and future scenarios constructed from 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models. The results suggest that precipitation has been the primary control of runoff variation during the latest decades, but the role of temperature will outweigh that of precipitation in most regions if future climate change follows the projections of climate models instead of the historical tendencies. Besides these two key factors, increasing air humidity is projected to partially offset the additional evaporative demand caused by warming and consequently enhance runoff. Overall, the projections from 20 climate models suggest a high degree of consistency on the increasing trends in temperature, precipitation, and humidity, which will be the major climatic driving factors accounting for 43-50, 20-24, and 16-23 % of the runoff change, respectively. Spatially, while temperature rise is recognized as the largest contributor that suppresses runoff in most areas, precipitation is expected to be the dominant factor driving runoff to increase across the Pacific coast and the southwest. The combined effects of increasing humidity and precipitation may also surpass the detrimental effects of warming and result in a hydrologically wetter future in the east. However, severe runoff depletion is more likely to occur in the central CONUS as temperature effect prevails.

Demography of the Yellowstone grizzly bears

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pease, C.M.; Mattson, D.J.

1999-01-01

We undertook a demographic analysis of the Yellowstone grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) to identify critical environmental factors controlling grizzly bear vital rates, and thereby to help evaluate the effectiveness of past management and to identify future conservation issues. We concluded that, within the limits of uncertainty implied by the available data and our methods of data analysis, the size of the Yellowstone grizzly bear population changed little from 1975 to 1995. We found that grizzly bear mortality rates are about double in years when the whitebark pine crop fails than in mast years, and that the population probably declines when the crop fails and increases in mast years. Our model suggests that natural variation in whitebark pine crop size over the last two decades explains more of the perceived fluctuations in Yellowstone grizzly population size than do other variables. Our analysis used demographic data from 202 radio-telemetered bears followed between 1975 and 1992 and accounted for whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) crop failures during 1993-1995. We used a maximum likelihood method to estimate demographic parameters and used the Akaike Information Criteria to judge the significance of various independent variables. We identified no independent variables correlated with grizzly bear fecundity. In order of importance, we found that grizzly bear mortality rates are correlated with season, whitebark pine crop size (mast vs. nonmast year), sex, management-trapping status (never management-trapped vs. management-trapped once or more), and age. The mortality rate of bears that were management-trapped at least once was almost double that of bears that were never management-trapped, implying a source/sink (i.e., never management-trapped/management-trapped) structure. The rate at which bears move between the source and sink, estimated as the management-trapping rate (h), is critical to estimating the finite rate of increase, I>I?. We quantified h by estimating the rate at which bears that have never been management-trapped are management-trapped for the first time. It differed across seasons, was higher in nonmast than mast years, and varied with age. We calculate that I>I?=1.00 from 1975 to 1983 (four mast and five nonmast years) and 1.02 from 1984 to 1995 (seven mast and five nonmast years). Overall, we find that I>I?=1.01A? 0.04 (mean A? 1 SE) from 1975 to 1995. Our models suggest that future management should concentrate on the threats to whitebark pine, such as those posed by white pine blister rust, global warming, and fire suppression. As is currently widely recognized by Yellowstone land managers, our model also suggests that future management must compensate for the increased grizzly bear mortality that is likely to be caused by an increasing number of humans in Yellowstone.

Hindcasting and forecasting of climatology for Gilbert Bay, Labrador: A marine protected area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Best, Sara J.

Gilbert Bay is a marine protected area (MPA) on the southeastern coast of Labrador, Canada. The MPA was created to conserve a genetically distinctive population of Atlantic cod, Gadus morhua. Future climate change in the region is expected to have an impact on the coastal marine environment and local communities in the future. This thesis presents results from a hindcast and forecasts study of physical oceanographic conditions for Gilbert Bay. The first section of this thesis examines the interannual variability in atmospheric and physical oceanographic characteristics of Gilbert Bay over the period 1949-2006. The seasonal and interannual variability of the near surface atmospheric parameters are described. Seawater temperature, salinity and sea-ice thickness in winter are simulated with a physical ocean model, the General Ocean Turbulence Model (GOTM). The results of the hindcast model suggest that the atmospheric interannual variability of the Gilbert Bay region is linked to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). A warming trend observed in the subpolar North Atlantic was influenced by the local climate of coastal Labrador during the recent decade of 1995-2005. The second section of this thesis presents a model forecast of the impact of climate change on the physical conditions within Gilbert Bay over the next century. Climate scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment and the US Climate Change Science Program Project (US CCSP), specifically the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES), were used. Atmospheric parameters and related changes in seawater temperature, salinity and sea-ice thickness in winter for three SRES are simulated with the GOTM, and are then compared to the hindcast study results. The results suggest that the water column during future winters will become warmer in the second half of the 21st century. In the summer the atmosphere will be warmer and more humid. Cloudiness and precipitation are expected to increase. This will have an impact on the vertical stratification of the water column. The surface mixed layer is expected to become warmer, fresher and much shallower than seen in the past. The stratification below the seasonal thermocline will weaken and vertical mixing will intensify. A significant change in surface sea-ice coverage is also suggested by the forecast. Continuing reduction in sea-ice formation during the winter months as highlighted by the hindcast study is expected to affect living conditions of the neighbouring coastal communities around the bay, specifically by increasing the danger of travelling across the bay. A warming Gilbert Bay ecosystem may be favourable for cod growth, but reduced sea-ice formation during the winter months increases the danger of travelling across the bay by snowmobile.

Establishing the common patterns of future tropospheric ozone under diverse climate change scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jimenez-Guerrero, Pedro; Gómez-Navarro, Juan J.; Jerez, Sonia; Lorente-Plazas, Raquel; Baro, Rocio; Montávez, Juan P.

2013-04-01

The impacts of climate change on air quality may affect long-term air quality planning. However, the policies aimed at improving air quality in the EU directives have not accounted for the variations in the climate. Climate change alone influences future air quality through modifications of gas-phase chemistry, transport, removal, and natural emissions. As such, the aim of this work is to check whether the projected changes in gas-phase air pollution over Europe depends on the scenario driving the regional simulation. For this purpose, two full-transient regional climate change-air quality projections for the first half of the XXI century (1991-2050) have been carried out with MM5+CHIMERE system, including A2 and B2 SRES scenarios. Experiments span the periods 1971-2000, as a reference, and 2071-2100, as future enhanced greenhouse gas and aerosol scenarios (SRES A2 and B2). The atmospheric simulations have a horizontal resolution of 25 km and 23 vertical layers up to 100 mb, and were driven by ECHO-G global climate model outputs. The analysis focuses on the connection between meteorological and air quality variables. Our simulations suggest that the modes of variability for tropospheric ozone and their main precursors hardly change under different SRES scenarios. The effect of changing scenarios has to be sought in the intensity of the changing signal, rather than in the spatial structure of the variation patterns, since the correlation between the spatial patterns of variability in A2 and B2 simulation is r > 0.75 for all gas-phase pollutants included in this study. In both cases, full-transient simulations indicate an enhanced enhanced chemical activity under future scenarios. The causes for tropospheric ozone variations have to be sought in a multiplicity of climate factors, such as increased temperature, different distribution of precipitation patterns across Europe, increased photolysis of primary and secondary pollutants due to lower cloudiness, etc. Nonetheless, according to the results of this work future ozone is conditioned by the dependence of biogenic emissions on the climatological patterns of variability. In this sense, ozone over Europe is mainly driven by the warming-induced increase in biogenic emitting activity (vegetation is kept invariable in the simulations, but estimations of these emissions strongly depends on shortwave radiation and temperature, which are substantially modified in climatic simulations). Moreover, one of the most important drivers for ozone increase is the decrease of cloudiness (related to stronger solar radiation) mostly over southern Europe at the first half of the XXI century. However, given the large uncertainty isoprene sensitivity to climate change and the large uncertainties associated to the cloudiness projections, these results should be carefully considered.

Using a Bayesian network to clarify areas requiring research in a host-pathogen system.

PubMed

Bower, D S; Mengersen, K; Alford, R A; Schwarzkopf, L

2017-12-01

Bayesian network analyses can be used to interactively change the strength of effect of variables in a model to explore complex relationships in new ways. In doing so, they allow one to identify influential nodes that are not well studied empirically so that future research can be prioritized. We identified relationships in host and pathogen biology to examine disease-driven declines of amphibians associated with amphibian chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis). We constructed a Bayesian network consisting of behavioral, genetic, physiological, and environmental variables that influence disease and used them to predict host population trends. We varied the impacts of specific variables in the model to reveal factors with the most influence on host population trend. The behavior of the nodes (the way in which the variables probabilistically responded to changes in states of the parents, which are the nodes or variables that directly influenced them in the graphical model) was consistent with published results. The frog population had a 49% probability of decline when all states were set at their original values, and this probability increased when body temperatures were cold, the immune system was not suppressing infection, and the ambient environment was conducive to growth of B. dendrobatidis. These findings suggest the construction of our model reflected the complex relationships characteristic of host-pathogen interactions. Changes to climatic variables alone did not strongly influence the probability of population decline, which suggests that climate interacts with other factors such as the capacity of the frog immune system to suppress disease. Changes to the adaptive immune system and disease reservoirs had a large effect on the population trend, but there was little empirical information available for model construction. Our model inputs can be used as a base to examine other systems, and our results show that such analyses are useful tools for reviewing existing literature, identifying links poorly supported by evidence, and understanding complexities in emerging infectious-disease systems. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

Complex Morphological Variability in Complex Evaporitic Systems: Thermal Spring Snails from the Chihuahuan Desert, Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Carol M.; Roopnarine, Peter D.

2003-11-01

Thermal springs in evaporitic environments provide a unique biological laboratory in which to study natural selection and evolutionary diversification. These isolated systems may be an analogue for conditions in early Earth or Mars history. One modern example of such a system can be found in the Chihuahuan Desert of north-central Mexico. The Cuatro Cienegas basin hosts a series of thermal springs that form a complex of aquatic ecosystems under a range of environmental conditions. Using landmark-based morphometric techniques, we have quantified an unusually high level of morphological variability in the endemic gastropod Mexipyrgus from Cuatro Cienegas. The differentiation is seen both within and between hydrological systems. Our results suggest that this type of environmental system is capable of producing and maintaining a high level of morphological diversity on small spatial scales, and thus should be a target for future astrobiological research.

Value congruence, control, sense of community and demands as determinants of burnout syndrome among hospitality workers.

PubMed

Asensio-Martínez, Ángela; Leiter, Michael P; Gascón, Santiago; Gumuchian, Stephanie; Masluk, Bárbara; Herrera-Mercadal, Paola; Albesa, Agustín; García-Campayo, Javier

2017-09-07

Employees working in the hospitality industry are constantly exposed to occupational stressors that may lead employees into experiencing burnout syndrome. Research addressing the interactive effects of control, community and value congruence to alleviate the impact of workplace demands on experiencing burnout is relatively limited. The present study examined relationships among control, community and value congruence, workplace demands and the three components of burnout. A sample of 418 employees working in a variety of hospitality associations including restaurants and hotels in Spain were recruited. Moderation analyses and linear regressions analyzed the predictive power of control, community and value congruence as moderating variables. Results indicate that control, community and value congruence were successful buffers in the relationships between workplace demands and the burnout dimensions. The present findings offer suggestions for future research on potential moderating variables, as well as implications for reducing burnout among hospitality employees.

A human-driven decline in global burned area.

PubMed

Andela, N; Morton, D C; Giglio, L; Chen, Y; van der Werf, G R; Kasibhatla, P S; DeFries, R S; Collatz, G J; Hantson, S; Kloster, S; Bachelet, D; Forrest, M; Lasslop, G; Li, F; Mangeon, S; Melton, J R; Yue, C; Randerson, J T

2017-06-30

Fire is an essential Earth system process that alters ecosystem and atmospheric composition. Here we assessed long-term fire trends using multiple satellite data sets. We found that global burned area declined by 24.3 ± 8.8% over the past 18 years. The estimated decrease in burned area remained robust after adjusting for precipitation variability and was largest in savannas. Agricultural expansion and intensification were primary drivers of declining fire activity. Fewer and smaller fires reduced aerosol concentrations, modified vegetation structure, and increased the magnitude of the terrestrial carbon sink. Fire models were unable to reproduce the pattern and magnitude of observed declines, suggesting that they may overestimate fire emissions in future projections. Using economic and demographic variables, we developed a conceptual model for predicting fire in human-dominated landscapes. Copyright © 2017 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.

Perception and analysis of Spanish accents in English speech

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chism, Cori; Lass, Norman

2002-05-01

The purpose of the present study was to determine what relates most closely to the degree of perceived foreign accent in the English speech of native Spanish speakers: intonation, vowel length, stress, voice onset time (VOT), or segmental accuracy. Nineteen native English speaking listeners rated speech samples from 7 native English speakers and 15 native Spanish speakers for comprehensibility and degree of foreign accent. The speech samples were analyzed spectrographically and perceptually to obtain numerical values for each variable. Correlation coefficients were computed to determine the relationship beween these values and the average foreign accent scores. Results showed that the average foreign accent scores were statistically significantly correlated with three variables: the length of stressed vowels (r=-0.48, p=0.05), voice onset time (r =-0.62, p=0.01), and segmental accuracy (r=0.92, p=0.001). Implications of these findings and suggestions for future research are discussed.

Understanding women's mammography intentions: a theory-based investigation.

PubMed

Naito, Mikako; O'Callaghan, Frances V; Morrissey, Shirley

2009-01-01

The present study compared the utility of two models (the Theory of Planned Behavior and Protection Motivation Theory) in identifying factors associated with intentions to undertake screening mammography, before and after an intervention. The comparison was made between the unique components of the two models. The effect of including implementation intentions was also investigated. Two hundred and fifty-one women aged 37 to 69 years completed questionnaires at baseline and following the delivery of a standard (control) or a protection motivation theory-based informational intervention. Hierarchical multiple regressions indicated that theory of planned behavior variables were associated with mammography intentions. Results also showed that inclusion of implementation intention in the model significantly increased the association with mammography intentions. The findings suggest that future interventions aiming to increase screening mammography participation should focus on the theory of planned behavior variables and that implementation intention should also be targeted.

KOALA RETROVIRUS: A REVIEW.

PubMed

Kinney, Matthew E; Pye, Geoffrey W

2016-06-01

Koala retrovirus (KoRV) is a gammaretrovirus that has been identified in both captive and free-ranging koalas ( Phascolarctos cinereus ) with variable geographic distribution in Australia. KoRV is capable of both exogenous and endogenous transmission, which provides an interesting research platform for scientists to study active retrovirus endogenization into a host genome and offers veterinary scientists an opportunity to examine the clinical consequences of KoRV infection in koalas. Causation between KoRV and frequently recognized clinical conditions associated with immune suppression and neoplasia in koalas has not been definitively established, however research continues to evaluate a potential association. Three KoRV variants, KoRV-A, KoRV-B, and KoRV-J, have been the most thoroughly described and preliminary evidence suggests KoRV variability may be fundamental in host pathogenicity. In addition to reviewing what is currently known about KoRV, this article discusses treatment, management, and future research directions.

Advancing institutional anomie theory: a microlevel examination connecting culture, institutions, and deviance.

PubMed

Muftić, Lisa R

2006-12-01

Institutional anomie theory (IAT) contends that crime can be explained by an examination of American society, particularly the exaggerated emphasis on economic success inherent in American culture, which has created a "cheating orientation" that permeates structural institutions, including academia. Consistent with its macrosocial perspective, previous tests of IAT have examined IAT variables at the structural level only. The current study tests the robustness of IAT by operationalizing IAT variables at the individual level and looking at a minor form of deviance, student cheating. The author also examines the role statistical modeling has in testing the theory at the microlevel. Undergraduates, 122 American born and 48 international, were surveyed about their cheating behaviors and adherence to economic goal orientations. Results related to the hypothesis that American students, relative to foreign-born students, will have an increased adherence to economic goal orientations that increase cheating behaviors are presented, as are suggestions for future studies.

Estimating annual suspended-sediment loads in the northern and central Appalachian Coal region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Koltun, G.F.

1985-01-01

Multiple-regression equations were developed for estimating the annual suspended-sediment load, for a given year, from small to medium-sized basins in the northern and central parts of the Appalachian coal region. The regression analysis was performed with data for land use, basin characteristics, streamflow, rainfall, and suspended-sediment load for 15 sites in the region. Two variables, the maximum mean-daily discharge occurring within the year and the annual peak discharge, explained much of the variation in the annual suspended-sediment load. Separate equations were developed employing each of these discharge variables. Standard errors for both equations are relatively large, which suggests that future predictions will probably have a low level of precision. This level of precision, however, may be acceptable for certain purposes. It is therefore left to the user to asses whether the level of precision provided by these equations is acceptable for the intended application.

Measuring Five Dimensions of Religiosity across Adolescence

PubMed Central

Pearce, Lisa D.; Hayward, George M.; Pearlman, Jessica A.

2017-01-01

This paper theorizes and tests a latent variable model of adolescent religiosity in which five dimensions of religiosity are interrelated: religious beliefs, religious exclusivity, external religiosity, private practice, and religious salience. Research often theorizes overlapping and independent influences of single items or dimensions of religiosity on outcomes such as adolescent sexual behavior, but rarely operationalizes the dimensions in a measurement model accounting for their associations with each other and across time. We use longitudinal structural equation modeling (SEM) with latent variables to analyze data from two waves of the National Study of Youth and Religion. We test our hypothesized measurement model as compared to four alternate measurement models and find that our proposed model maintains superior fit. We then discuss the associations between the five dimensions of religiosity we measure and how these change over time. Our findings suggest how future research might better operationalize multiple dimensions of religiosity in studies of the influence of religion in adolescence. PMID:28931956

Scenario planning for water resource management in semi arid zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gupta, Rajiv; Kumar, Gaurav

2018-06-01

Scenario planning for water resource management in semi arid zone is performed using systems Input-Output approach of time domain analysis. This approach derived the future weights of input variables of the hydrological system from their precedent weights. Input variables considered here are precipitation, evaporation, population and crop irrigation. Ingles & De Souza's method and Thornthwaite model have been used to estimate runoff and evaporation respectively. Difference between precipitation inflow and the sum of runoff and evaporation has been approximated as groundwater recharge. Population and crop irrigation derived the total water demand. Compensation of total water demand by groundwater recharge has been analyzed. Further compensation has been evaluated by proposing efficient methods of water conservation. The best measure to be adopted for water conservation is suggested based on the cost benefit analysis. A case study for nine villages in Chirawa region of district Jhunjhunu, Rajasthan (India) validates the model.

Explaining sex differences in reactions to relationship infidelities: comparisons of the roles of sex, gender, beliefs, attachment, and sociosexual orientation.

PubMed

Brase, Gary L; Adair, Lora; Monk, Kale

2014-02-04

To the extent that sex differences are mediated by mechanisms such as sex-roles and beliefs, individual differences in these more proximate traits should account for significant portions of relevant sex differences. Differences between women and men in reactions to sexual and emotional infidelity were assessed in a large sample of participants (n = 477), and these target reactions were evaluated as a function of many potential proximate mediators (infidelity implications beliefs, gender-role beliefs, interpersonal trust, attachment style, sociosexuality, and culture of honor beliefs) and as a function of participant sex. Results found a consistent sex difference that was not mediated by any other variables, although a handful of other variables were related to male, but not female, individual differences. These findings suggest particularly promising directions for future research on integrating evolutionarily based sex differences and proximate individual differences.

Allocentric but not egocentric visual memory difficulties in adults with ADHD may represent cognitive inefficiency.

PubMed

Brown, Franklin C; Roth, Robert M; Katz, Lynda J

2015-08-30

Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) has often been conceptualized as arising executive dysfunctions (e.g., inattention, defective inhibition). However, recent studies suggested that cognitive inefficiency may underlie many ADHD symptoms, according to reaction time and processing speed abnormalities. This study explored whether a non-timed measure of cognitive inefficiency would also be abnormal. A sample of 23 ADHD subjects was compared to 23 controls on a test that included both egocentric and allocentric visual memory subtests. A factor analysis was used to determine which cognitive variables contributed to allocentric visual memory. The ADHD sample performed significantly lower on the allocentric but not egocentric conditions. Allocentric visual memory was not associated with timed, working memory, visual perception, or mental rotation variables. This paper concluded by discussing how these results supported a cognitive inefficiency explanation for some ADHD symptoms, and discussed future research directions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Examining the Relationships Between Education, Social Networks and Democratic Support With ABM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Drucker, Nick; Campbell, Kenyth

2011-01-01

This paper introduces an agent-based model that explores the relationships between education, social networks, and support for democratic ideals. This study examines two factors thai affect democratic support, education, and social networks. Current theory concerning these two variables suggests that positive relationships exist between education and democratic support and between social networks and the spread of ideas. The model contains multiple variables of democratic support, two of which are evaluated through experimentation. The model allows individual entities within the system to make "decisions" about their democratic support independent of one another. The agent based approach also allows entities to utilize their social networks to spread ideas. Current theory supports experimentation results. In addion , these results show the model is capable of reproducing real world outcomes. This paper addresses the model creation process and the experimentation procedure, as well as future research avenues and potential shortcomings of the model

Children's motivation in elementary physical education: a longitudinal study.

PubMed

Xiang, Ping; McBride, Ron; Guan, Jianmin

2004-03-01

The present study examined relationships among variables drawn from achievement goal theory and the expectancy-value model of achievement choice as well as mean level changes of these variables over time in elementary physical education. Participants (N = 207) completed questionnaires over a 2-year period: once while in the second and fourth grades and again when they were in the third and fifth grades. Results indicated that achievement goals, expectancy-related beliefs, and subjective task values were related to one another and were predictive of children's intention for future participation in physical education. Children's subjective task values of physical education decreased over time. Children in Cohort 1 (across second to third grades) generally had stronger motivation for learning in physical education than children in Cohort 2 (across fourth to fifth grades). Findings suggest the importance of integrating achievement goal theory and the expectancy-value model of achievement choice in understanding student motivation.

Stress appraisal, coping, and work engagement among police recruits: an exploratory study.

PubMed

Kaiseler, Mariana; Queirós, Cristina; Passos, Fernando; Sousa, Pedro

2014-04-01

This study investigated the influence of stress appraisal and coping on work engagement levels (Absorption, Vigour, and Dedication) of police recruits. Participants were 387 men, ages 20 to 33 yr. (M = 24.1, SD = 2.4), in their last month of academy training before becoming police officers. Partially in support of predictions, work engagement was associated with Stressor control perceived, but not Stress intensity experienced over a self-selected stressor. Although the three dimensions of work engagement were explained by Stressor control and coping, Absorption was the dimension better explained by these variables. Police recruits reporting higher Absorption, Vigour, and Dedication reported using more Active coping and less Behavioural disengagement. Results showed that stress appraisal and coping are important variables influencing work engagement among police recruits. Findings suggested that future applied interventions fostering work engagement among police recruits should reinforce perceptions of control over a stressor as well as Active coping strategies.

Comparison of Procedures for Dual and Triple Closely Spaced Parallel Runways

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Verma, Savita; Ballinger, Deborah; Subramanian Shobana; Kozon, Thomas

2012-01-01

A human-in-the-loop high fidelity flight simulation experiment was conducted, which investigated and compared breakout procedures for Very Closely Spaced Parallel Approaches (VCSPA) with two and three runways. To understand the feasibility, usability and human factors of two and three runway VCSPA, data were collected and analyzed on the dependent variables of breakout cross track error and pilot workload. Independent variables included number of runways, cause of breakout and location of breakout. Results indicated larger cross track error and higher workload using three runways as compared to 2-runway operations. Significant interaction effects involving breakout cause and breakout location were also observed. Across all conditions, cross track error values showed high levels of breakout trajectory accuracy and pilot workload remained manageable. Results suggest possible avenues of future adaptation for adopting these procedures (e.g., pilot training), while also showing potential promise of the concept.

Uncertainties in discharge projections in consequence of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liebert, J.; Düthmann, D.; Berg, P.; Feldmann, H.; Ihringer, J.; Kunstmann, H.; Merz, B.; Ott, I.; Schädler, G.; Wagner, S.

2012-04-01

The fourth assessment report of the IPCC summarizes possible effects of the global climate change. For Europe an increasing variability of temperature and precipitation is expected. While the increasing temperature is projected almost uniformly for Europe, for precipitation the models indicate partly heterogeneous tendencies. In order to maintain current safety-standards in the infrastructure of our various water management systems, the possible future floods discharges are very often a central question. In the planning and operation of water infrastructure systems uncertainties considerations have an important function. In times of climate change the analyses of measured historical gauge data (normally 30 - 80 years) are not sufficient enough, because even significant trends are only valid in the analyzed time period and extrapolations are exceedingly difficult. Therefore combined climate and hydrological modeling for scenario based projections become more and more popular. Regarding that adaptation measures in water infrastructure are in general very time-consuming and cost intensive qualified questions to the variability and uncertainty of model based results are important as well. The CEDIM-Project "Flood hazards in a changing climate" is focusing on both: future changes in flood discharge and assess the uncertainties that are involved in such model based future predictions. In detail the study bases on an ensemble of hydrological model (HM) simulations in 3 representative small to medium sized German river catchments (Ammer, Mulde and Ruhr). The meteorological Input bases on 2 high resolution (7 km) regional climate models (RCM) driven by 2 global climate models (GCM) for the near future (2021 - 2050) following the A1B emission scenario (SRES). Two of the catchments (Ruhr and Mulde) have sub-mountainous and one (Ammer) has alpine character. Besides analyzing the future changes in discharge in the catchments, the describing and potential quantification of the variability of the results, based on the different driving data, regionalization methods, spatial resolutions and model types, is one main goal of the study and should stay in the focus of the poster. The general result is a large variability in the discharge projection. The identified variabilities are in the annual regime mainly attributable to different causes in the used model chain (GCM-RCM-HM). In winter the global climate models (GCM) bring the main uncertainties in the future projection. In summer the main variability refers to the meteorological downscaling to the regional scale (RCM) in combination with the hydrological modeling (HM). But with an appropriate ensemble statistic are despite the large variabilities mean future tendencies detectable. The Ruhr catchment shows tendencies to future higher flood discharges and in the Ammer and Mulde catchments are no significant changes expected.

Projected Impact of Climate Change on Hydrological Regimes in the Philippines

PubMed Central

Kanamaru, Hideki; Keesstra, Saskia; Maroulis, Jerry; David, Carlos Primo C.; Ritsema, Coen J.

2016-01-01

The Philippines is one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to the potential impacts of climate change. To fully understand these potential impacts, especially on future hydrological regimes and water resources (2010-2050), 24 river basins located in the major agricultural provinces throughout the Philippines were assessed. Calibrated using existing historical interpolated climate data, the STREAM model was used to assess future river flows derived from three global climate models (BCM2, CNCM3 and MPEH5) under two plausible scenarios (A1B and A2) and then compared with baseline scenarios (20th century). Results predict a general increase in water availability for most parts of the country. For the A1B scenario, CNCM3 and MPEH5 models predict an overall increase in river flows and river flow variability for most basins, with higher flow magnitudes and flow variability, while an increase in peak flow return periods is predicted for the middle and southern parts of the country during the wet season. However, in the north, the prognosis is for an increase in peak flow return periods for both wet and dry seasons. These findings suggest a general increase in water availability for agriculture, however, there is also the increased threat of flooding and enhanced soil erosion throughout the country. PMID:27749908

Solar variability: Implications for global change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lean, Judith; Rind, David

1994-01-01

Solar variability is examined in search of implications for global change. The topics covered include the following: solar variation modification of global surface temperature; the significance of solar variability with respect to future climate change; and methods of reducing the uncertainty of the potential amplitude of solar variability on longer time scales.

Retrieval of Methane Source Strengths in Europe Using a Simple Modeling Approach to Assess the Potential of Spaceborne Lidar Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Weaver, C.; Kiemle, C.; Kawa, S. R.; Aalto, T.; Necki, J.; Steinbacher, M.; Arduini, J.; Apadula, F.; Berkhout, H.; Hatakka, J.

2014-01-01

We investigate the sensitivity of future spaceborne lidar measurements to changes in surface methane emissions. We use surface methane observations from nine European ground stations and a Lagrangian transport model to infer surface methane emissions for 2010. Our inversion shows the strongest emissions from the Netherlands, the coal mines in Upper Silesia, Poland, and wetlands in southern Finland. The simulated methane surface concentrations capture at least half of the daily variability in the observations, suggesting that the transport model is correctly simulating the regional transport pathways over Europe. With this tool we can test whether proposed methane lidar instruments will be sensitive to changes in surface emissions. We show that future lidar instruments should be able to detect a 50% reduction in methane emissions from the Netherlands and Germany, at least during summer.

Climate change and health modeling: horses for courses.

PubMed

Ebi, Kristie L; Rocklöv, Joacim

2014-01-01

Mathematical and statistical models are needed to understand the extent to which weather, climate variability, and climate change are affecting current and may affect future health burdens in the context of other risk factors and a range of possible development pathways, and the temporal and spatial patterns of any changes. Such understanding is needed to guide the design and the implementation of adaptation and mitigation measures. Because each model projection captures only a narrow range of possible futures, and because models serve different purposes, multiple models are needed for each health outcome ('horses for courses'). Multiple modeling results can be used to bracket the ranges of when, where, and with what intensity negative health consequences could arise. This commentary explores some climate change and health modeling issues, particularly modeling exposure-response relationships, developing early warning systems, projecting health risks over coming decades, and modeling to inform decision-making. Research needs are also suggested.

Food security and marine capture fisheries: characteristics, trends, drivers and future perspectives

PubMed Central

Garcia, Serge M.; Rosenberg, Andrew A.

2010-01-01

World population is expected to grow from the present 6.8 billion people to about 9 billion by 2050. The growing need for nutritious and healthy food will increase the demand for fisheries products from marine sources, whose productivity is already highly stressed by excessive fishing pressure, growing organic pollution, toxic contamination, coastal degradation and climate change. Looking towards 2050, the question is how fisheries governance, and the national and international policy and legal frameworks within which it is nested, will ensure a sustainable harvest, maintain biodiversity and ecosystem functions, and adapt to climate change. This paper looks at global fisheries production, the state of resources, contribution to food security and governance. It describes the main changes affecting the sector, including geographical expansion, fishing capacity-building, natural variability, environmental degradation and climate change. It identifies drivers and future challenges, while suggesting how new science, policies and interventions could best address those challenges. PMID:20713390

Pacific-North American teleconnection and North Pacific Oscillation: historical simulation and future projection in CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Zheng; Gan, Bolan; Wu, Lixin; Jia, Fan

2017-09-01

Based on reanalysis datasets and as many as 35 CMIP5 models, this study evaluates the capability of climate models to simulate the spatiotemporal features of Pacific-North American teleconnection (PNA) and North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) in the twentieth century wintertime, and further investigates their responses to greenhouse warming in the twenty-first century. Analysis reveals that while the majority (80%) of models reasonably simulate either the geographical distribution or the amplitude of PNA/NPO pattern, only half of models can well capture both features in space. As for the temporal features, variabilities of PNA and NPO in most models are biased toward higher amplitude. Additionally, most models simulate the interannual variabilities of PNA and NPO, qualitatively consistent with the observation, whereas models generally lack the capability to reproduce the decadal (20-25 years) variability of PNA. As the climate warms under the strongest future warming scenario, the PNA intensity is found to be strengthened, whereas there is no consensus on the direction of change in the NPO intensity among models. The intensification of positive PNA is primarily manifested in the large deepening of the North Pacific trough, which is robust as it is 2.3 times the unforced internal variability. By focusing on the tropical Pacific Ocean, we find that the multidecadal evolution of the North Pacific trough intensity (dominating the PNA intensity evolution) is closely related to that of the analogous trough in the PNA-like teleconnection forced by sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTa) in the tropical central Pacific (CP) rather than the tropical eastern Pacific (EP). Such association is also found to act under greenhouse warming: that is, the strengthening of the PNA-like teleconnection induced by the CP SSTa rather than the EP SSTa is a driving force for the intensification of PNA. This is in part owing to the robust enhancement of the tropical precipitation response to the CP SST variation. Indeed, further inspection suggests that models with stronger intensification of the CP SST variability and its related tropical precipitation response tend to have larger deepening magnitude of the North Pacific trough associated with the PNA variability.

Uncertainty and variability in computational and mathematical models of cardiac physiology.

PubMed

Mirams, Gary R; Pathmanathan, Pras; Gray, Richard A; Challenor, Peter; Clayton, Richard H

2016-12-01

Mathematical and computational models of cardiac physiology have been an integral component of cardiac electrophysiology since its inception, and are collectively known as the Cardiac Physiome. We identify and classify the numerous sources of variability and uncertainty in model formulation, parameters and other inputs that arise from both natural variation in experimental data and lack of knowledge. The impact of uncertainty on the outputs of Cardiac Physiome models is not well understood, and this limits their utility as clinical tools. We argue that incorporating variability and uncertainty should be a high priority for the future of the Cardiac Physiome. We suggest investigating the adoption of approaches developed in other areas of science and engineering while recognising unique challenges for the Cardiac Physiome; it is likely that novel methods will be necessary that require engagement with the mathematics and statistics community. The Cardiac Physiome effort is one of the most mature and successful applications of mathematical and computational modelling for describing and advancing the understanding of physiology. After five decades of development, physiological cardiac models are poised to realise the promise of translational research via clinical applications such as drug development and patient-specific approaches as well as ablation, cardiac resynchronisation and contractility modulation therapies. For models to be included as a vital component of the decision process in safety-critical applications, rigorous assessment of model credibility will be required. This White Paper describes one aspect of this process by identifying and classifying sources of variability and uncertainty in models as well as their implications for the application and development of cardiac models. We stress the need to understand and quantify the sources of variability and uncertainty in model inputs, and the impact of model structure and complexity and their consequences for predictive model outputs. We propose that the future of the Cardiac Physiome should include a probabilistic approach to quantify the relationship of variability and uncertainty of model inputs and outputs. © 2016 The Authors. The Journal of Physiology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of The Physiological Society.

Pacific-North American teleconnection and North Pacific Oscillation: historical simulation and future projection in CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Zheng; Gan, Bolan; Wu, Lixin; Jia, Fan

2018-06-01

Based on reanalysis datasets and as many as 35 CMIP5 models, this study evaluates the capability of climate models to simulate the spatiotemporal features of Pacific-North American teleconnection (PNA) and North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) in the twentieth century wintertime, and further investigates their responses to greenhouse warming in the twenty-first century. Analysis reveals that while the majority (80%) of models reasonably simulate either the geographical distribution or the amplitude of PNA/NPO pattern, only half of models can well capture both features in space. As for the temporal features, variabilities of PNA and NPO in most models are biased toward higher amplitude. Additionally, most models simulate the interannual variabilities of PNA and NPO, qualitatively consistent with the observation, whereas models generally lack the capability to reproduce the decadal (20-25 years) variability of PNA. As the climate warms under the strongest future warming scenario, the PNA intensity is found to be strengthened, whereas there is no consensus on the direction of change in the NPO intensity among models. The intensification of positive PNA is primarily manifested in the large deepening of the North Pacific trough, which is robust as it is 2.3 times the unforced internal variability. By focusing on the tropical Pacific Ocean, we find that the multidecadal evolution of the North Pacific trough intensity (dominating the PNA intensity evolution) is closely related to that of the analogous trough in the PNA-like teleconnection forced by sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTa) in the tropical central Pacific (CP) rather than the tropical eastern Pacific (EP). Such association is also found to act under greenhouse warming: that is, the strengthening of the PNA-like teleconnection induced by the CP SSTa rather than the EP SSTa is a driving force for the intensification of PNA. This is in part owing to the robust enhancement of the tropical precipitation response to the CP SST variation. Indeed, further inspection suggests that models with stronger intensification of the CP SST variability and its related tropical precipitation response tend to have larger deepening magnitude of the North Pacific trough associated with the PNA variability.

Smallholder agriculture in India and adaptation to current and future climate variability and climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murari, K. K.; Jayaraman, T.

2014-12-01

Modeling studies have indicated that global warming, in many regions, will increase the exposure of major crops to rainfall and temperature stress, leading to lower crop yields. Climate variability alone has a potential to decrease yield to an extent comparable to or greater than yield reductions expected due to rising temperature. For India, where agriculture is important, both in terms of food security as well as a source of livelihoods to a majority of its population, climate variability and climate change are subjects of serious concern. There is however a need to distinguish the impact of current climate variability and climate change on Indian agriculture, especially in relation to their socioeconomic impact. This differentiation is difficult to determine due to the secular trend of increasing production and yield of the past several decades. The current research in this aspect is in an initial stage and requires a multi-disciplinary effort. In this study, we assess the potential differential impacts of environmental stress and shock across different socioeconomic strata of the rural population, using village level survey data. The survey data from eight selected villages, based on the Project on Agrarian Relations in India conducted by the Foundation for Agrarian Studies, indicated that income from crop production of the top 20 households (based on the extent of operational land holding, employment of hired labour and asset holdings) is a multiple of the mean income of the village. In sharp contrast, the income of the bottom 20 households is a fraction of the mean and sometimes negative, indicating a net loss from crop production. The considerable differentials in output and incomes suggest that small and marginal farmers are far more susceptible to climate variability and climate change than the other sections. Climate change is effectively an immediate threat to small and marginal farmers, which is driven essentially by socioeconomic conditions. The impact of climate variability on smallholder agriculture in the present can therefore provide important insights into the nature of its vulnerability to future climate change.

An intersectional approach for understanding the vulnerabilities of English-speaking heterosexual Caribbean youth to HIV/AIDS and sexually transmitted infections: Prevention and intervention strategies

PubMed Central

Sutherland, Marcia Elizabeth

2016-01-01

Caribbean youth comprise about 30 percent of the English-speaking Caribbean population, and about 81,000 Caribbean and Latin American youth are HIV infected. AIDS is the leading cause of death for 15- to 24-year-old English-speaking Caribbean youth. This article relies on intersectionality theory in the assessment of the macro-level, or structural variables, and micro-level, or individual level, variables that influence the risk-taking sexual behaviors of heterosexual English-speaking Caribbean youth and increase their vulnerability to HIV/sexually transmitted infections. This article offers macro- and micro-level prevention/intervention strategies for reducing the prevalence of sexually transmitted infections in English-speaking Caribbean youth, including the promotion of condom use, voluntary male circumcision, and HIV testing and counseling. Suggestions are offered for future research investigations to explore the contributing factors to youth’s vulnerability to sexually transmitted infections and to empirically verify the relationship between and among variables that account for desired outcomes, including decreases in risky sexual behaviors. PMID:28070411

Decision Neuroscience: Neuroeconomics

PubMed Central

Smith, David V.; Huettel, Scott A.

2012-01-01

Few aspects of human cognition are more personal than the choices we make. Our decisions – from the mundane to the impossibly complex – continually shape the courses of our lives. In recent years, researchers have applied the tools of neuroscience to understand the mechanisms that underlie decision making, as part of the new discipline of decision neuroscience. A primary goal of this emerging field has been to identify the processes that underlie specific decision variables, including the value of rewards, the uncertainty associated with particular outcomes, and the consequences of social interactions. Recent work suggests potential neural substrates that integrate these variables, potentially reflecting a common neural currency for value, to facilitate value comparisons. Despite the successes of decision neuroscience research for elucidating brain mechanisms, significant challenges remain. These include building new conceptual frameworks for decision making, integrating research findings across disparate techniques and species, and extending results from neuroscience to shape economic theory. To overcome these challenges, future research will likely focus on interpersonal variability in decision making, with the eventual goal of creating biologically plausible models for individual choice. PMID:22754602

Mechanism by which BMI influences leisure-time physical activity behavior.

PubMed

Godin, Gaston; Bélanger-Gravel, Ariane; Nolin, Bertrand

2008-06-01

The objective of this prospective study was to clarify the mechanism by which BMI influences leisure-time physical activity. This was achieved in accordance with the assumptions underlying the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB), considered as one of the most useful theories to predict behavior adoption. At baseline, a sample of 1,530 respondents completed a short questionnaire to measure intention and perceived behavioral control (PBC), the two proximal determinants of behavior of TPB. Past behavior, sociodemographic variables, and weight and height were also assessed. The dependent variable, leisure-time physical activity was assessed 3 months later. Hierarchical multiple regression analyses revealed that BMI is a direct predictor of future leisure-time physical activity, not mediated by the variables of TPB. Additional hierarchical analyses indicated that BMI was not a moderator of the intention-behavior and PBC-behavior relationships. The results of this study suggest that high BMI is a significant negative determinant of leisure-time physical activity. This observation reinforces the importance of preventing weight gain as a health promotion strategy for avoiding a sedentary lifestyle.

Internal ocean-atmosphere variability drives megadroughts in Western North America.

PubMed

Coats, S; Smerdon, J E; Cook, B I; Seager, R; Cook, E R; Anchukaitis, K J

2016-09-28

Multidecadal droughts that occurred during the Medieval Climate Anomaly represent an important target for validating the ability of climate models to adequately characterize drought risk over the near-term future. A prominent hypothesis is that these megadroughts were driven by a centuries-long radiatively forced shift in the mean state of the tropical Pacific Ocean. Here we use a novel combination of spatiotemporal tree-ring reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere hydroclimate to infer the atmosphere-ocean dynamics that coincide with megadroughts over the American West, and find that these features are consistently associated with ten-to-thirty year periods of frequent cold El Niño Southern Oscillation conditions and not a centuries-long shift in the mean of the tropical Pacific Ocean. These results suggest an important role for internal variability in driving past megadroughts. State-of-the art climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5, however, do not simulate a consistent association between megadroughts and internal variability of the tropical Pacific Ocean, with implications for our confidence in megadrought risk projections.

Identifying the Driving Factors of Water Quality in a Sub-Watershed of the Republican River Basin, Kansas USA.

PubMed

Burke, Morgen W V; Shahabi, Mojtaba; Xu, Yeqian; Zheng, Haochi; Zhang, Xiaodong; VanLooy, Jeffrey

2018-05-22

Studies have shown that the agricultural expansion and land use changes in the Midwest of the U.S. are major drivers for increased nonpoint source pollution throughout the regional river systems. In this study, we empirically examined the relationship of planted area and production of three dominant crops with nitrate flux in the Republican River, Kansas, a sub-watershed of Mississippi River Basin. Our results show that land use in the region could not explain the observed changes in nitrate flux in the river. Instead, after including explanatory variables such as precipitation, growing degree days, and well water irrigation in the regression model we found that irrigation and spring precipitation could explain >85% of the variability in nitrate flux from 2000 to 2014. This suggests that changes in crop acreage and production alone cannot explain variability in nitrate flux. Future agricultural policy for the region should focus on controlling both the timing and amount of fertilizer applied to the field to reduce the potential leaching of excess fertilizer through spring time runoff and/or over-irrigation into nearby river systems.

An intersectional approach for understanding the vulnerabilities of English-speaking heterosexual Caribbean youth to HIV/AIDS and sexually transmitted infections: Prevention and intervention strategies.

PubMed

Sutherland, Marcia Elizabeth

2016-07-01

Caribbean youth comprise about 30 percent of the English-speaking Caribbean population, and about 81,000 Caribbean and Latin American youth are HIV infected. AIDS is the leading cause of death for 15- to 24-year-old English-speaking Caribbean youth. This article relies on intersectionality theory in the assessment of the macro-level, or structural variables, and micro-level, or individual level, variables that influence the risk-taking sexual behaviors of heterosexual English-speaking Caribbean youth and increase their vulnerability to HIV/sexually transmitted infections. This article offers macro- and micro-level prevention/intervention strategies for reducing the prevalence of sexually transmitted infections in English-speaking Caribbean youth, including the promotion of condom use, voluntary male circumcision, and HIV testing and counseling. Suggestions are offered for future research investigations to explore the contributing factors to youth's vulnerability to sexually transmitted infections and to empirically verify the relationship between and among variables that account for desired outcomes, including decreases in risky sexual behaviors.

Behavioral variability of choices versus structural inconsistency of preferences.

PubMed

Regenwetter, Michel; Davis-Stober, Clintin P

2012-04-01

Theories of rational choice often make the structural consistency assumption that every decision maker's binary strict preference among choice alternatives forms a strict weak order. Likewise, the very concept of a utility function over lotteries in normative, prescriptive, and descriptive theory is mathematically equivalent to strict weak order preferences over those lotteries, while intransitive heuristic models violate such weak orders. Using new quantitative interdisciplinary methodologies, we dissociate the variability of choices from the structural inconsistency of preferences. We show that laboratory choice behavior among stimuli of a classical "intransitivity" paradigm is, in fact, consistent with variable strict weak order preferences. We find that decision makers act in accordance with a restrictive mathematical model that, for the behavioral sciences, is extraordinarily parsimonious. Our findings suggest that the best place to invest future behavioral decision research is not in the development of new intransitive decision models but rather in the specification of parsimonious models consistent with strict weak order(s), as well as heuristics and other process models that explain why preferences appear to be weakly ordered.

A serological survey of infectious disease in Yellowstone National Park's canid community.

PubMed

Almberg, Emily S; Mech, L David; Smith, Douglas W; Sheldon, Jennifer W; Crabtree, Robert L

2009-09-16

Gray wolves (Canis lupus) were reintroduced into Yellowstone National Park (YNP) after a >70 year absence, and as part of recovery efforts, the population has been closely monitored. In 1999 and 2005, pup survival was significantly reduced, suggestive of disease outbreaks. We analyzed sympatric wolf, coyote (Canis latrans), and red fox (Vulpes vulpes) serologic data from YNP, spanning 1991-2007, to identify long-term patterns of pathogen exposure, identify associated risk factors, and examine evidence for disease-induced mortality among wolves for which there were survival data. We found high, constant exposure to canine parvovirus (wolf seroprevalence: 100%; coyote: 94%), canine adenovirus-1 (wolf pups [0.5-0.9 yr]: 91%, adults [>or=1 yr]: 96%; coyote juveniles [0.5-1.5 yrs]: 18%, adults [>or=1.6 yrs]: 83%), and canine herpesvirus (wolf: 87%; coyote juveniles: 23%, young adults [1.6-4.9 yrs]: 51%, old adults [>or=5 yrs]: 87%) suggesting that these pathogens were enzootic within YNP wolves and coyotes. An average of 50% of wolves exhibited exposure to the protozoan parasite, Neospora caninum, although individuals' odds of exposure tended to increase with age and was temporally variable. Wolf, coyote, and fox exposure to canine distemper virus (CDV) was temporally variable, with evidence for distinct multi-host outbreaks in 1999 and 2005, and perhaps a smaller, isolated outbreak among wolves in the interior of YNP in 2002. The years of high wolf-pup mortality in 1999 and 2005 in the northern region of the park were correlated with peaks in CDV seroprevalence, suggesting that CDV contributed to the observed mortality. Of the pathogens we examined, none appear to jeopardize the long-term population of canids in YNP. However, CDV appears capable of causing short-term population declines. Additional information on how and where CDV is maintained and the frequency with which future epizootics might be expected might be useful for future management of the Northern Rocky Mountain wolf population.

Statistical structure of intrinsic climate variability under global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Xiuhua; Bye, John; Fraedrich, Klaus

2017-04-01

Climate variability is often studied in terms of fluctuations with respect to the mean state, whereas the dependence between the mean and variability is rarely discussed. We propose a new climate metric to measure the relationship between means and standard deviations of annual surface temperature computed over non-overlapping 100-year segments. This metric is analyzed based on equilibrium simulations of the Max Planck Institute-Earth System Model (MPI-ESM): the last millennium climate (800-1799), the future climate projection following the A1B scenario (2100-2199), and the 3100-year unforced control simulation. A linear relationship is globally observed in the control simulation and thus termed intrinsic climate variability, which is most pronounced in the tropical region with negative regression slopes over the Pacific warm pool and positive slopes in the eastern tropical Pacific. It relates to asymmetric changes in temperature extremes and associates fluctuating climate means with increase or decrease in intensity and occurrence of both El Niño and La Niña events. In the future scenario period, the linear regression slopes largely retain their spatial structure with appreciable changes in intensity and geographical locations. Since intrinsic climate variability describes the internal rhythm of the climate system, it may serve as guidance for interpreting climate variability and climate change signals in the past and the future.

How uncertain is the future of electric vehicle market: Results from Monte Carlo simulations using a nested logit model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Changzheng; Oak Ridge National Lab.; Lin, Zhenhong

Plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) are widely regarded as an important component of the technology portfolio designed to accomplish policy goals in sustainability and energy security. However, the market acceptance of PEVs in the future remains largely uncertain from today's perspective. By integrating a consumer choice model based on nested multinomial logit and Monte Carlo simulation, this study analyzes the uncertainty of PEV market penetration using Monte Carlo simulation. Results suggest that the future market for PEVs is highly uncertain and there is a substantial risk of low penetration in the early and midterm market. Top factors contributing to market sharemore » variability are price sensitivities, energy cost, range limitation, and charging availability. The results also illustrate the potential effect of public policies in promoting PEVs through investment in battery technology and infrastructure deployment. Here, continued improvement of battery technologies and deployment of charging infrastructure alone do not necessarily reduce the spread of market share distributions, but may shift distributions toward right, i.e., increase the probability of having great market success.« less

How uncertain is the future of electric vehicle market: Results from Monte Carlo simulations using a nested logit model

DOE PAGES

Liu, Changzheng; Oak Ridge National Lab.; Lin, Zhenhong; ...

2016-12-08

Plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) are widely regarded as an important component of the technology portfolio designed to accomplish policy goals in sustainability and energy security. However, the market acceptance of PEVs in the future remains largely uncertain from today's perspective. By integrating a consumer choice model based on nested multinomial logit and Monte Carlo simulation, this study analyzes the uncertainty of PEV market penetration using Monte Carlo simulation. Results suggest that the future market for PEVs is highly uncertain and there is a substantial risk of low penetration in the early and midterm market. Top factors contributing to market sharemore » variability are price sensitivities, energy cost, range limitation, and charging availability. The results also illustrate the potential effect of public policies in promoting PEVs through investment in battery technology and infrastructure deployment. Here, continued improvement of battery technologies and deployment of charging infrastructure alone do not necessarily reduce the spread of market share distributions, but may shift distributions toward right, i.e., increase the probability of having great market success.« less

The role of science self-efficacy, science career efficacy, science career interest, and intentions to enroll in nonrequired science courses in the future selection of science-related careers for high school students

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ballard, Sherri Patrice

1998-12-01

Underrepresentation of non-Asian minority groups and women in science and math related professions has been an area of concern for many years. The purpose of this study was to examine the role of career selection variables for African-American and European-American students on future aspirations of pursuing a science-related career. Other examined variables included gender, academic track and socioeconomic status. A survey was completed by 368 high school students in rural settings in the Southeastern portion of the United States. Gender, race, tracking, and socioeconomic differences in career selection variables and future aspirations of pursuing a science-related career were explored using a 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 MANOVA. Multiple regression was used to examine the predictiveness of career selection variables relative to future career aspirations of pursuing a science-related career. Results indicated that African-Americans reported higher total science career interest, and higher science career efficacy. European-American students reported higher levels of science self-efficacy relative to making a B or better in science courses and solving science-related problems. Also, European-Americans reported higher levels of interest in science-related tasks, a subscale on the science career interest variable. When the effect of gender was examined across the total sample, no differences were found. However, when gender was examined by race, European-American females reported higher levels of science career interest than European-American males. Students from high academic tracking groups reported greater efficacy for completing science-related technical skills. Science career interest was predictive of future career selection for this sample.

[Considering housing arrangements in elderly life: factors influencing plans concerning future housing arrangements and preferences in a representative sample of 45+ year olds].

PubMed

Spangenberg, L; Glaesmer, H; Brähler, E; Kersting, A; Strauß, B

2013-04-01

Providing care and support for the elderly is a future challenge. Using regression analysis, a representative population-based sample (n = 1,445) was examined with respect to whether they had considered future housing and which variables influenced their thoughts and preferences. The majority of the sample reported thinking about housing in old age and preferred to stay at home in old age. Thoughts about future housing and housing preferences were predicted by different factors in the age groups analyzed. Thinking about future housing was positively associated with increasing age and depression. Other relevant predictors were gender, living with a partner, images of old age (especially negative ones), and anticipated subjective health. These variables also predicted housing preferences. Thoughts about future living arrangements are widespread, and their importance increases with age. The wishes reported do contrast to a certain extent with reality. Planning future care as well as developing consultation guidelines should address these issues while considering the reported influences.

IUEAGN: A database of ultraviolet spectra of active galactic nuclei

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pike, G.; Edelson, R.; Shull, J. M.; Saken, J.

1993-01-01

In 13 years of operation, IUE has gathered approximately 5000 spectra of almost 600 Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN). In order to undertake AGN studies which require large amounts of data, we are consistently reducing this entire archive and creating a homogeneous, easy-to-use database. First, the spectra are extracted using the Optimal extraction algorithm. Continuum fluxes are then measured across predefined bands, and line fluxes are measured with a multi-component fit. These results, along with source information such as redshifts and positions, are placed in the IUEAGN relational database. Analysis algorithms, statistical tests, and plotting packages run within the structure, and this flexible database can accommodate future data when they are released. This archival approach has already been used to survey line and continuum variability in six bright Seyfert 1s and rapid continuum variability in 14 blazars. Among the results that could only be obtained using a large archival study is evidence that blazars show a positive correlation between degree of variability and apparent luminosity, while Seyfert 1s show an anti-correlation. This suggests that beaming dominates the ultraviolet properties for blazars, while thermal emission from an accretion disk dominates for Seyfert 1s. Our future plans include a survey of line ratios in Seyfert 1s, to be fitted with photoionization models to test the models and determine the range of temperatures, densities and ionization parameters. We will also include data from IRAS, Einstein, EXOSAT, and ground-based telescopes to measure multi-wavelength correlations and broadband spectral energy distributions.

Contrasting determinants for the introduction and establishment success of exotic birds in Taiwan using decision trees models.

PubMed

Liang, Shih-Hsiung; Walther, Bruno Andreas; Shieh, Bao-Sen

2017-01-01

Biological invasions have become a major threat to biodiversity, and identifying determinants underlying success at different stages of the invasion process is essential for both prevention management and testing ecological theories. To investigate variables associated with different stages of the invasion process in a local region such as Taiwan, potential problems using traditional parametric analyses include too many variables of different data types (nominal, ordinal, and interval) and a relatively small data set with too many missing values. We therefore used five decision tree models instead and compared their performance. Our dataset contains 283 exotic bird species which were transported to Taiwan; of these 283 species, 95 species escaped to the field successfully (introduction success); of these 95 introduced species, 36 species reproduced in the field of Taiwan successfully (establishment success). For each species, we collected 22 variables associated with human selectivity and species traits which may determine success during the introduction stage and establishment stage. For each decision tree model, we performed three variable treatments: (I) including all 22 variables, (II) excluding nominal variables, and (III) excluding nominal variables and replacing ordinal values with binary ones. Five performance measures were used to compare models, namely, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), specificity, precision, recall, and accuracy. The gradient boosting models performed best overall among the five decision tree models for both introduction and establishment success and across variable treatments. The most important variables for predicting introduction success were the bird family, the number of invaded countries, and variables associated with environmental adaptation, whereas the most important variables for predicting establishment success were the number of invaded countries and variables associated with reproduction. Our final optimal models achieved relatively high performance values, and we discuss differences in performance with regard to sample size and variable treatments. Our results showed that, for both the establishment model and introduction model, the number of invaded countries was the most important or second most important determinant, respectively. Therefore, we suggest that future success for introduction and establishment of exotic birds may be gauged by simply looking at previous success in invading other countries. Finally, we found that species traits related to reproduction were more important in establishment models than in introduction models; importantly, these determinants were not averaged but either minimum or maximum values of species traits. Therefore, we suggest that in addition to averaged values, reproductive potential represented by minimum and maximum values of species traits should be considered in invasion studies.

Contrasting determinants for the introduction and establishment success of exotic birds in Taiwan using decision trees models

PubMed Central

Liang, Shih-Hsiung; Walther, Bruno Andreas

2017-01-01

Background Biological invasions have become a major threat to biodiversity, and identifying determinants underlying success at different stages of the invasion process is essential for both prevention management and testing ecological theories. To investigate variables associated with different stages of the invasion process in a local region such as Taiwan, potential problems using traditional parametric analyses include too many variables of different data types (nominal, ordinal, and interval) and a relatively small data set with too many missing values. Methods We therefore used five decision tree models instead and compared their performance. Our dataset contains 283 exotic bird species which were transported to Taiwan; of these 283 species, 95 species escaped to the field successfully (introduction success); of these 95 introduced species, 36 species reproduced in the field of Taiwan successfully (establishment success). For each species, we collected 22 variables associated with human selectivity and species traits which may determine success during the introduction stage and establishment stage. For each decision tree model, we performed three variable treatments: (I) including all 22 variables, (II) excluding nominal variables, and (III) excluding nominal variables and replacing ordinal values with binary ones. Five performance measures were used to compare models, namely, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), specificity, precision, recall, and accuracy. Results The gradient boosting models performed best overall among the five decision tree models for both introduction and establishment success and across variable treatments. The most important variables for predicting introduction success were the bird family, the number of invaded countries, and variables associated with environmental adaptation, whereas the most important variables for predicting establishment success were the number of invaded countries and variables associated with reproduction. Discussion Our final optimal models achieved relatively high performance values, and we discuss differences in performance with regard to sample size and variable treatments. Our results showed that, for both the establishment model and introduction model, the number of invaded countries was the most important or second most important determinant, respectively. Therefore, we suggest that future success for introduction and establishment of exotic birds may be gauged by simply looking at previous success in invading other countries. Finally, we found that species traits related to reproduction were more important in establishment models than in introduction models; importantly, these determinants were not averaged but either minimum or maximum values of species traits. Therefore, we suggest that in addition to averaged values, reproductive potential represented by minimum and maximum values of species traits should be considered in invasion studies. PMID:28316893

Exposure and materiality of the secondary room and its impact on the impulse response of coupled-volume concert halls

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ermann, Michael; Johnson, Marty

2005-06-01

How does sound decay when one room is partially exposed to another (acoustically coupled)? More specifically, this research aims to quantify how operational and design decisions impact sound fields in the design of concert halls with acoustical coupling. By adding a second room to a concert hall, and designing doors to control the sonic transparency between the two rooms, designers can create a new, coupled acoustic. Concert halls use coupling to achieve a variable, longer, and distinct reverberant quality for their musicians and listeners. For this study a coupled-volume shoebox concert hall is conceived with a fixed geometric volume, form, and primary-room sound absorption. Aperture size and secondary-room sound absorption levels are established as variables. Statistical analysis of sound decay in this simulated hall suggests a highly sensitive relationship between the double-sloped condition and (1) architectural composition, as defined by the aperture size exposing the chamber and (2) materiality, as defined by the sound absorptance in the coupled volume. The theoretical, mathematical predictions are compared with coupled-volume concert hall field measurements and guidelines are suggested for future designs of coupled-volume concert halls.

Tropical Pacific forcing on decadal-to-centennial NAO-dominated precipitation variability in northern Mediterranean over the past 6500 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, H. M.; Shen, C. C.; Michel, V.; Jiang, X.; Mii, H. S.; Wang, Y.; Valensi, P.

2017-12-01

We present a multi-annual-resolved absolute-dated stalagmite-inferred precipitation record, with age precision as good as ±2 years, from northern Italy, to reflect North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) dynamics since 6.5 ka (thousand years ago, before 1950 C.E.). Our record features millennial precipitation fluctuations punctuated by several centennial-scale drought periods centered at 5.6, 6.2, 4.2, 3.0 and 2.3 ka. The phase relationship with previous NAO-sensitive records suggests a multi-millennial southward migration of the northern Westerlies and enhanced NAO variability from the middle- to late-Holocene. We also found the multi-decadal to centennial rainfall amount could dramatically vary within few decades, possibly affecting ancient Mediterranean civilizations. Concurrence between northern Mediterranean precipitation and western tropical Pacific sea surface temperature records suggests the remote forcing on this NAO-dominated rainfall. We argue that the irregular NAO change nowadays could be related to high frequency of El Niño-Southern Oscillation events and might cause an inevitable abrupt hydroclimate change and irreparable impacts on the regional human society in the near future.

Multifarious anchovy and sardine regimes in the Humboldt Current System during the last 150 years.

PubMed

Salvatteci, Renato; Field, David; Gutiérrez, Dimitri; Baumgartner, Tim; Ferreira, Vicente; Ortlieb, Luc; Sifeddine, Abdel; Grados, Daniel; Bertrand, Arnaud

2018-03-01

The Humboldt Current System (HCS) has the highest production of forage fish in the world, although it is highly variable and the future of the primary component, anchovy, is uncertain in the context of global warming. Paradigms based on late 20th century observations suggest that large-scale forcing controls decadal-scale fluctuations of anchovy and sardine across different boundary currents of the Pacific. We develop records of anchovy and sardine fluctuations since 1860 AD using fish scales from multiple sites containing laminated sediments and compare them with Pacific basin-scale and regional indices of ocean climate variability. Our records reveal two main anchovy and sardine phases with a timescale that is not consistent with previously proposed periodicities. Rather, the regime shifts in the HCS are related to 3D habitat changes driven by changes in upwelling intensity from both regional and large-scale forcing. Moreover, we show that a long-term increase in coastal upwelling translates via a bottom-up mechanism to top predators suggesting that the warming climate, at least up to the start of the 21st century, was favorable for fishery productivity in the HCS. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Combating substance abuse with ibogaine: pre- and posttreatment recommendations and an example of successive model fitting analyses.

PubMed

Hittner, James B; Quello, Susan B

2004-06-01

Ibogaine is an indole alkaloid derived from the root bark of the African shrub Tabernan the iboga and it has been used for many years as a medicinal and ceremonial agent in West Central Africa. Furthermore, both anecdotal observations and recent studies suggest that ibogaine alleviates withdrawal symptoms and reduces drug cravings. Although ibogaine articles typically include information bearing on the duration of drug abstinence following treatment, little if any attention is given to the psychological and environmental factors that might facilitate a positive treatment outcome. Hence, a major purpose of the present review is to suggest a number of theory-driven, pretreatment and posttreatment recommendations that have good potential for enhancing ibogaine's effectiveness. The second major purpose of this review is to demonstrate, through a reanalysis of previously published results, the utility of conducting successive model fitting analyses on ibogaine treatment data. Such analyses are useful for determining both the strength and form of the association between pre-ibogaine treatment variables and post-ibogaine treatment outcomes. Finally, in order to facilitate future quantitative reviews, the authors recommend that a minimum set of patient- and treatment-related variables be included in all ibogaine publications involving human participants.

Climate change risks, extinction debt, and conservation implications for a threatened freshwater fish: Carmine shiner (Notropis percobromus).

PubMed

Pandit, Shubha N; Maitland, Bryan M; Pandit, Laxmi K; Poesch, Mark S; Enders, Eva C

2017-11-15

Climate change is affecting many freshwater species, particularly fishes. Predictions of future climate change suggest large and deleterious effects on species with narrow dispersal abilities due to limited hydrological connectivity. In turn, this creates the potential for population isolation in thermally unsuitable habitats, leading to physiological stress, species declines or possible extirpation. The current extent of many freshwater fish species' spatio-temporal distribution patterns and their sensitivity to thermal impacts from climate change - critical information for conservation planning - are often unknown. Carmine shiner (Notropis percobromus) is an ecologically important species listed as threatened or imperilled nationally (Canada) and regionally (South Dakota, United States) due to its restricted range and sensitivity to water quality and temperature. This research aimed to determine the current distribution and spatio-temporal variability in projected suitable habitat for Carmine shiner using niche-based modeling approaches (MaxEnt, BIOCLIM, and DOMAIN models). Statistically downscaled, bias-corrected Global Circulation Models (GCMs) data was used to model the distribution of Carmine shiner in central North America for the period of 2041-2060 (2050s). Maximum mean July temperature and temperature variability were the main factors in determining Carmine shiner distribution. Patterns of projected habitat change by the 2050s suggest the spatial extent of the current distribution of Carmine shiner would shift north, with >50% of the current distribution changing with future projections based on two Representative Concentrations Pathways for CO 2 emissions. Whereas the southern extent of the distribution would become unsuitable for Carmine shiner, suitable habitats are predicted to become available further north, if accessible. Importantly, the majority of habitat gains for Carmine shiner would be in areas currently inaccessible due to dispersal limitations, suggesting current populations may face an extinction debt within the next half century. These results provide evidence that Carmine shiner may be highly vulnerable to a warming climate and suggest that management actions - such as assisted migration - may be needed to mitigate impacts from climate change and ensure the long-term persistence of the species. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Analysis of the present and future winter Pacific-North American teleconnection in the ECHAM5 global and RegCM3 regional climate models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Allan, Andrea M.; Hostetler, Steven W.; Alder, Jay R.

2014-01-01

We use the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis (NCEP) and the MPI/ECHAM5 general circulation model to drive the RegCM3 regional climate model to assess the ability of the models to reproduce the spatiotemporal aspects of the Pacific-North American teleconnection (PNA) pattern. Composite anomalies of the NCEP-driven RegCM3 simulations for 1982–2000 indicate that the regional model is capable of accurately simulating the key features (500-hPa heights, surface temperature, and precipitation) of the positive and negative phases of the PNA with little loss of information in the downscaling process. The basic structure of the PNA is captured in both the ECHAM5 global and ECHAM5-driven RegCM3 simulations. The 1950–2000 ECHAM5 simulation displays similar temporal and spatial variability in the PNA index as that of NCEP; however, the magnitudes of the positive and negative phases are weaker than those of NCEP. The RegCM3 simulations clearly differentiate the climatology and associated anomalies of snow water equivalent and soil moisture of the positive and negative PNA phases. In the RegCM3 simulations of the future (2050–2100), changes in the location and extent of the Aleutian low and the continental high over North America alter the dominant flow patterns associated with positive and negative PNA modes. The future projections display a shift in the patterns of the relationship between the PNA and surface climate variables, which suggest the potential for changes in the PNA-related surface hydrology of North America.

Healthy-unhealthy weight and time preference. Is there an association? An analysis through a consumer survey.

PubMed

Cavaliere, Alessia; De Marchi, Elisa; Banterle, Alessandro

2014-12-01

Individual time preference has been recognized as key driver in explaining consumers' probability to have a healthy weight or to incur excess weight problems. The term time preference refers to the rate at which a person is disposed to trade a current satisfaction for a future benefit. This characteristic may affect the extent at which individuals invest in health and may influence diet choices. The purpose of this paper is to analyse which could be the role of time preference (measured in terms of diet-related behaviours) in explaining consumers' healthy or unhealthy body weight. The analysis also considers other drivers predicted to influence BMI, specifically information searching, health-related activities and socio-demographic conditions. The survey was based on face-to-face interviews on a sample of 240 consumers living in Milan. In order to test the hypothesis, we performed a set of seven ORM regressions, all having consumers' BMI as the dependent variable. Each ORM contains a different block of explanatory variables, while time preference is always included among the regressors. The results suggest that the healthy weight condition is associated with a high orientation to the future, with a high interest in nutrition claims, a low attention to health-related claims, and a high level of education. On the opposite, the probability to be overweight or obese increases when consumers are less future-concerned and is associated with a low searching for nutrition claims and to a high interest in health claims. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Optic variables used to judge future ball arrival position in expert and novice soccer players.

PubMed

Craig, Cathy M; Goulon, Cédric; Berton, Eric; Rao, Guillaume; Fernandez, Laure; Bootsma, Reinoud J

2009-04-01

Although many studies have looked at the perceptual-cognitive strategies used to make anticipatory judgments in sport, few have examined the informational invariants that our visual system may be attuned to. Using immersive interactive virtual reality to simulate the aerodynamics of the trajectory of a ball with and without sidespin, the present study examined the ability of expert and novice soccer players to make judgments about the ball's future arrival position. An analysis of their judgment responses showed how participants were strongly influenced by the ball's trajectory. The changes in trajectory caused by sidespin led to erroneous predictions about the ball's future arrival position. An analysis of potential informational variables that could explain these results points to the use of a first-order compound variable combining optical expansion and optical displacement.

The Sloan Digital Sky Survey Reverberation Mapping Project: Ensemble Spectroscopic Variability of Quasar Broad Emission Lines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Mouyuan; Trump, Jonathan R.; Shen, Yue; Brandt, W. N.; Dawson, Kyle; Denney, Kelly D.; Hall, Patrick B.; Ho, Luis C.; Horne, Keith; Jiang, Linhua; Richards, Gordon T.; Schneider, Donald P.; Bizyaev, Dmitry; Kinemuchi, Karen; Oravetz, Daniel; Pan, Kaike; Simmons, Audrey

2015-09-01

We explore the variability of quasars in the Mg ii and {{H}}β broad emission lines and ultraviolet/optical continuum emission using the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Reverberation Mapping project (SDSS-RM). This is the largest spectroscopic study of quasar variability to date: our study includes 29 spectroscopic epochs from SDSS-RM over 6 months, containing 357 quasars with Mg ii and 41 quasars with {{H}}β . On longer timescales, the study is also supplemented with two-epoch data from SDSS-I/II. The SDSS-I/II data include an additional 2854 quasars with Mg ii and 572 quasars with {{H}}β . The Mg ii emission line is significantly variable ({{Δ }}f/f∼ 10% on ∼100-day timescales), a necessary prerequisite for its use for reverberation mapping studies. The data also confirm that continuum variability increases with timescale and decreases with luminosity, and the continuum light curves are consistent with a damped random-walk model on rest-frame timescales of ≳ 5 days. We compare the emission-line and continuum variability to investigate the structure of the broad-line region. Broad-line variability shows a shallower increase with timescale compared to the continuum emission, demonstrating that the broad-line transfer function is not a δ-function. {{H}}β is more variable than Mg ii (roughly by a factor of ∼1.5), suggesting different excitation mechanisms, optical depths and/or geometrical configuration for each emission line. The ensemble spectroscopic variability measurements enabled by the SDSS-RM project have important consequences for future studies of reverberation mapping and black hole mass estimation of 1\\lt z\\lt 2 quasars.

Functional significance of men's testosterone reactivity to social stimuli.

PubMed

Zilioli, Samuele; Bird, Brian M

2017-10-01

Rapid testosterone fluctuations in response to social stimuli are observed across a wide range of species, and the highly conserved nature of these fluctuations suggests an adaptive function. This paper reviews the current literature on testosterone reactivity, primarily in human males, and illustrates how life-history theory provides an adequate theoretical framework to interpret findings. The review is structured around supporting evidence suggesting that situations implicated in mating effort either directly (e.g., interactions with a mate) or indirectly (e.g., intrasexual competition) are generally associated with a brief elevation of testosterone, while situations implicated in parenting effort (e.g., nurturant interactions with offspring) are generally associated with a decline in testosterone. Further, we discuss how these fluctuations in testosterone have been linked to future behaviors, and how situational, motivational, and physiological variables moderate the interplay between social stimuli, testosterone reactivity, and behavior. Supporting the notion that testosterone can play a causal role in modulating behavior in response to social stimuli, we also summarize recent single administration studies examining the effects of testosterone on physiology, neurobiology, and behavior. A conceptual model provides links between supported findings, and hypothesized pathways requiring future testing. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cloudy Windows: What GCM Ensembles, Reanalyses and Observations Tell Us About Uncertainty in Greenland's Future Climate and Surface Melting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reusch, D. B.

2016-12-01

Any analysis that wants to use a GCM-based scenario of future climate benefits from knowing how much uncertainty the GCM's inherent variability adds to the development of climate change predictions. This is extra relevant in the polar regions due to the potential of global impacts (e.g., sea level rise) from local (ice sheet) climate changes such as more frequent/intense surface melting. High-resolution, regional-scale models using GCMs for boundary/initial conditions in future scenarios inherit a measure of GCM-derived externally-driven uncertainty. We investigate these uncertainties for the Greenland ice sheet using the 30-member CESM1.0-CAM5-BGC Large Ensemble (CESMLE) for recent (1981-2000) and future (2081-2100, RCP 8.5) decades. Recent simulations are skill-tested against the ERA-Interim reanalysis and AWS observations with results informing future scenarios. We focus on key variables influencing surface melting through decadal climatologies, nonlinear analysis of variability with self-organizing maps (SOMs), regional-scale modeling (Polar WRF), and simple melt models. Relative to the ensemble average, spatially averaged climatological July temperature anomalies over a Greenland ice-sheet/ocean domain are mostly between +/- 0.2 °C. The spatial average hides larger local anomalies of up to +/- 2 °C. The ensemble average itself is 2 °C cooler than ERA-Interim. SOMs extend our diagnostics by providing a concise, objective summary of model variability as a set of generalized patterns. For CESMLE, the SOM patterns summarize the variability of multiple realizations of climate. Changes in pattern frequency by ensemble member show the influence of initial conditions. For example, basic statistical analysis of pattern frequency yields interquartile ranges of 2-4% for individual patterns across the ensemble. In climate terms, this tells us about climate state variability through the range of the ensemble, a potentially significant source of melt-prediction uncertainty. SOMs can also capture the different trajectories of climate due to intramodel variability over time. Polar WRF provides higher resolution regional modeling with improved, polar-centric model physics. Simple melt models allow us to characterize impacts of the upstream uncertainties on estimates of surface melting.

Schedule-Induced and Operant Mechanisms that Influence Response Variability: A Review and Implications for Future Investigations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Ronald; Sturmey, Peter; Fields, Lanny

2007-01-01

Response variability, a fundamental characteristic of behavior, may be in some cases an induced effect of reinforcement schedules. Research on schedule-induced response variability has shown that continuous reinforcement results in less variability than intermittent reinforcement schedules. Studies on the effects of intermittency of reinforcement,…

Productivity and phenological responses of natural vegetation to present and future inter-annual climate variability across semi-arid river basins in Chile.

PubMed

Glade, Francisco E; Miranda, Marcelo D; Meza, Francisco J; van Leeuwen, Willem J D

2016-12-01

Time series of vegetation indices and remotely sensed phenological data offer insights about the patterns in vegetation dynamics. Both are useful sources of information for analyzing and monitoring ecosystem responses to environmental variations caused by natural and anthropogenic drivers. In the semi-arid region of Chile, climate variability and recent severe droughts in addition to land-use changes pose threats to the stability of local ecosystems. Normalized difference vegetation index time series (2000-2013) data from the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) was processed to monitor the trends and patterns of vegetation productivity and phenology observed over the last decade. An analysis of the relationship between (i) vegetation productivity and (ii) precipitation and temperature data for representative natural land-use cover classes was made. Using these data and ground measurements, productivity estimates were projected for two climate change scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) at two altitudinal levels. Results showed negative trends of vegetation productivity below 2000 m a.s.l. and positive trends for higher elevations. Phenology analysis suggested that mountainous ecosystems were starting their growing period earlier in the season, coinciding with a decreased productivity peak during the growing season. The coastal shrubland/grassland land cover class had a significant positive relation with rainfall and a significant negative relation with temperature, suggesting that these ecosystems are vulnerable to climate change. Future productivity projections indicate that under an RCP8.5 climate change scenario, productivity could decline by 12% in the period of 2060-2100, leading to a severe vegetation degradation at lower altitudes and in drier areas.

Seasonal variation in the biocontrol efficiency of bacterial wilt is driven by temperature-mediated changes in bacterial competitive interactions.

PubMed

Wei, Zhong; Huang, Jianfeng; Yang, Tianjie; Jousset, Alexandre; Xu, Yangchun; Shen, Qirong; Friman, Ville-Petri

2017-10-01

Microbe-based biocontrol applications hold the potential to become an efficient way to control plant pathogen disease outbreaks in the future. However, their efficiency is still very variable, which could be due to their sensitivity to the abiotic environmental conditions.Here, we assessed how environmental temperature variation correlates with ability of Ralstonia pickettii , an endophytic bacterial biocontrol agent, to suppress the Ralstonia solanacearum pathogen during different tomato crop seasons in China.We found that suppression of the pathogen was highest when the seasonal mean temperatures were around 20 °C and rapidly decreased with increasing mean crop season temperatures. Interestingly, low levels of disease incidence did not correlate with low pathogen or high biocontrol agent absolute densities. Instead, the biocontrol to pathogen density ratio was a more important predictor of disease incidence levels between different crop seasons. To understand this mechanistically, we measured the growth and strength of competition between the biocontrol agent and the pathogen over a naturally occurring temperature gradient in vitro . We found that the biocontrol strain grew relatively faster at low temperature ranges, and the pathogen at high temperature ranges, and that similar to field experiments, pathogen suppression peaked at 20 °C.Together, our results suggest that temperature-mediated changes in the strength of bacterial competition could potentially explain the variable R. solanacearum biocontrol outcomes between different crop seasons in China. Synthesis and applications . Our results suggest that abiotic environmental conditions, such as temperature, can affect the efficacy of biocontrol applications. Thus, in order to develop more consistent biocontrol applications in the future, we might need to find and isolate bacterial strains that can retain their functionality regardless of the changing environmental conditions.

Extreme Events in China under Climate Change: Uncertainty and related impacts (CSSP-FOREX)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leckebusch, Gregor C.; Befort, Daniel J.; Hodges, Kevin I.

2016-04-01

Suitable adaptation strategies or the timely initiation of related mitigation efforts in East Asia will strongly depend on robust and comprehensive information about future near-term as well as long-term potential changes in the climate system. Therefore, understanding the driving mechanisms associated with the East Asian climate is of major importance. The FOREX project (Fostering Regional Decision Making by the Assessment of Uncertainties of Future Regional Extremes and their Linkage to Global Climate System Variability for China and East Asia) focuses on the investigation of extreme wind and rainfall related events over Eastern Asia and their possible future changes. Here, analyses focus on the link between local extreme events and their driving weather systems. This includes the coupling between local rainfall extremes and tropical cyclones, the Meiyu frontal system, extra-tropical teleconnections and monsoonal activity. Furthermore, the relation between these driving weather systems and large-scale variability modes, e.g. NAO, PDO, ENSO is analysed. Thus, beside analysing future changes of local extreme events, the temporal variability of their driving weather systems and related large-scale variability modes will be assessed in current CMIP5 global model simulations to obtain more robust results. Beyond an overview of FOREX itself, first results regarding the link between local extremes and their steering weather systems based on observational and reanalysis data are shown. Special focus is laid on the contribution of monsoonal activity, tropical cyclones and the Meiyu frontal system on the inter-annual variability of the East Asian summer rainfall.

How will wind and water erosion change in drylands in the future?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okin, G. S.; Sala, O.; Vivoni, E. R.

2017-12-01

Drylands are characterized as much by high spatial and temporal variability as they are by low precipitation. Cover that is patchy at multiple scales allows connectivity for wind and water transport. Vegetation dynamics at interannual scales occurs in the context of community change (including woody encroachment) at decadal scales. Periods of drought alternate with relatively wet periods. Future predictions for the world's drylands are that many will become more arid, but near all will experience greater climate variability. This work explores how future variability will affect transport by wind and water, both of which are crucial elements of biotic-abiotic feedbacks that control community change in drylands. This work is based on long-term observations from the Jornada Long Term Ecological Research (LTER), but with lessons that are applicable elsewhere. We find strong relationships between vegetation community, precipitation and aeolian transport related to changes in connectivity. We further identify strong, scale-dependent relationships between precipitation and runoff. Thus, aeolian transport decreases with increasing annual precipitation and transport by water increases with annual precipitation, with the combined effect that increased variability in annual precipitation is likely to increase both water and wind transport. The consequence of this is that feedbacks associated with community change are likely to strengthen in the future.

[Horizon scanning in preparation for future health threats: a pilot exercise conducted by the French Institute for Public Health Surveillance in 2014].

PubMed

Eilstein, Daniel; Xerri, Bertrand; Viso, Anne-Catherine; Therre, Hélène; Gorza, Maud; Fuchs, Doriane; Pozuelos, Jérôme; Ioos, Sophie; Che, Didier; Bertrand, Edwige; El Yamani, Mounia; Empereur-Bissonnet, Pascal; Duport, Nicolas; Desenclos, Jean-Claude

2016-01-01

Background: Health surveillance is a reactive process, with no real hindsight for dealing with signals and alerts. It may fail to detect more radical changes with a major medium-term or long-term impact on public health. To increase proactivity, the French Institute for Public Health Surveillance has opted for a prospective monitoring approach.Methods: Several steps were necessary: 1) Identification of public health determinants. 2) Identification of key variables based on a combination of determinants. Variables were classified into three groups (health event trigger factors, dissemination factors and response factors) and were submitted to future development assumptions. 3) Identification, in each of the three groups, of micro-scenarios derived from variable trends. 4) Identification of macro-scenarios, each built from the three micro-scenarios for each of the three groups. 5) Identification of issues for the future of public health.Results: The exercise identified 22 key variables, 17 micro-scenarios and 5 macro-scenarios. The topics retained relate to issues on social and territorial health inequalities, health burden, individual and collective responsibilities in terms of health, ethical aspects, emerging phenomena, ‘Big data’, data mining, new health technologies, interlocking of analysis scales.Conclusions: The approach presented here guides the programming of activities of a health safety agency, particularly for monitoring and surveillance. By describing possible future scenarios, health surveillance can help decision-makers to influence the context towards one or more favourable futures.

Automatic classification of time-variable X-ray sources

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lo, Kitty K.; Farrell, Sean; Murphy, Tara

2014-05-01

To maximize the discovery potential of future synoptic surveys, especially in the field of transient science, it will be necessary to use automatic classification to identify some of the astronomical sources. The data mining technique of supervised classification is suitable for this problem. Here, we present a supervised learning method to automatically classify variable X-ray sources in the Second XMM-Newton Serendipitous Source Catalog (2XMMi-DR2). Random Forest is our classifier of choice since it is one of the most accurate learning algorithms available. Our training set consists of 873 variable sources and their features are derived from time series, spectra, andmore » other multi-wavelength contextual information. The 10 fold cross validation accuracy of the training data is ∼97% on a 7 class data set. We applied the trained classification model to 411 unknown variable 2XMM sources to produce a probabilistically classified catalog. Using the classification margin and the Random Forest derived outlier measure, we identified 12 anomalous sources, of which 2XMM J180658.7–500250 appears to be the most unusual source in the sample. Its X-ray spectra is suggestive of a ultraluminous X-ray source but its variability makes it highly unusual. Machine-learned classification and anomaly detection will facilitate scientific discoveries in the era of all-sky surveys.« less

Revisiting tropical instability wave variability in the Atlantic ocean using SODA reanalysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Decco, Hatsue Takanaca; Torres Junior, Audalio Rebelo; Pezzi, Luciano Ponzi; Landau, Luiz

2018-03-01

The spatial and temporal variability of energy exchange in Tropical Instability Waves (TIWs) in the Atlantic Ocean were investigated. A spectral analysis was used to filter the 5-day mean results from Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) reanalysis spanning from 1958 to 2008. TIWs were filtered over periods of 15 to 60 days and between wavelengths of 4 and 20 longitude degrees. The main approach of this study was the use of bidirectionally filtered TIW time series as the perturbation fields, and the difference in these time series from the SODA total results was considered to be the basic state for energetics analysis. The main result was that the annual cycle (period of 360 days) was the main source of variability of the waves, and the semi-annual cycle (period of 180 days) was a secondary variation, which indicated that TIWs occurred throughout the year but with intensity that varies seasonally. In SODA, barotropic instability acts as the mechanism that feeds and extracts energy to/from TIWs at equatorial Atlantic. Baroclinic instability is the main mechanism that extracts energy from TIWs to the equatorial circulation north of the Equator. All TIW patterns of variability were observed western of 10° W. The present study reveals new evidences regarding TIW variability and suggests that future investigations should include a detailed description of TIW dynamics as part of Atlantic Ocean equatorial circulation.

Vicarious Futurity in Autism and Childhood Dementia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wong, Michelle G.; Heriot, Sandra A.

2007-01-01

Vicarious futurity is the hope and despair that a person has for another's future. This study examined the vicarious futurity of parents of children with autism and childhood dementia. Participants were 22 parents of children with autism and 7 parents of children with childhood dementia. Variability in levels of vicarious hope and vicarious…

A Study Space Analysis and Narrative Review of Trauma-Informed Mediators of Dating Violence.

PubMed

Cascardi, Michele; Jouriles, Ernest N

2018-07-01

Research linking child maltreatment and dating violence in adolescence and emerging adulthood has proliferated in the past two decades; however, the precise mechanisms by which these experiences are related remain elusive. A trauma-informed perspective suggests four particularly promising mediators: maladaptive attachment, emotion regulation difficulties, emotional distress, and hostility. The current article characterizes the status of the empirical literature examining these four mediators using a study space analysis and a narrative review of existing research. An extensive literature search identified 42 papers (44 studies) that met the following criteria: (1) at least one measure of child maltreatment (emotional, physical, sexual, neglect, or exposure to intimate partner violence); (2) a measure of one of the four mediator variables; (3) a measure of dating violence perpetration or victimization; and (4) a sample of adolescents or young adults. The study space analysis suggested several important observations about the research on this topic, including a dearth of studies examining hostility as a mediator and little research using prospective designs or clinical samples. There are also limitations with the conceptualization and measurement of dating violence, child maltreatment, and some of the mediator variables. In addition, few studies examined more than one mediator variable in the same study. The narrative review suggested that maladaptive attachment (specifically insecure attachment styles), emotion regulation difficulties (specifically regulation of the emotion of anger), and emotional distress construed broadly represent promising mediators of the association between child maltreatment and dating violence, but conclusions about mediation must remain tentative given the state of the literature. The discussion offers recommendations for improved theoretical and empirical rigor to advance future research on mechanisms linking child maltreatment and dating violence.

Reconstructing Eastern Tropical Pacific productivity across Marine Isotope Stage 3 using foraminifera faunal counts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCourty, M.; Schmidt, M. W.; Glaubke, R.; Hertzberg, J. E.; Marcantonio, F.; Bianchi, T. S.

2017-12-01

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation is one of Earth's largest sources of interannual climate variability that has many global environmental impacts. Furthermore, the mean state of the tropical Pacific has the potential to change in the near future due to anthropogenic warming of the planet. In order to provide an analogue for future climate states, there is a critical need to understand how the tropical Pacific evolved across abrupt warming events in Earth's recent past. While most studies have focused on the evolution of ENSO across Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 1 and 2, the dynamics of the tropical Pacific across the abrupt climate events of MIS 3 are still highly contentious. To develop a record of past changes in upwelling intensity in the EEP, a parameter critically linked to the tropical Pacific mean state, we quantify the faunal abundances of 6 planktonic foraminifera species from piston core MV1014-02-17JC (00° 10.83'S, 85° 52.00'W; 2846 m depth) on the Carnegie Ridge from 35 - 59 kyr. The relative abundance of Globigerina bulloides, a species associated with upwelling conditions, and 5 other planktonic foraminifera suggest an increase in water column productivity during Heinrich Event 4 and across several Dansgaard-Oeschger stadial intervals. Initial results suggest that stadials in the North Atlantic are associated with more permanent La Niña-like conditions in the EEP. However, multiple lines of evidence suggest that depth intervals in our core between 43.7 - 55.7 kyr were impacted by intense dissolution due to changes in bottom water chemistry, impacting the fidelity of our faunal count records across this interval. Future work includes extending our faunal record back to 100 kyr to include Heinrich Events 6 - 8.

Climate Controls AM Fungal Distributions from Global to Local Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kivlin, S. N.; Hawkes, C.; Muscarella, R.; Treseder, K. K.; Kazenel, M.; Lynn, J.; Rudgers, J.

2016-12-01

Arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi have key functions in terrestrial biogeochemical processes; thus, determining the relative importance of climate, edaphic factors, and plant community composition on their geographic distributions can improve predictions of their sensitivity to global change. Local adaptation by AM fungi to plant hosts, soil nutrients, and climate suggests that all of these factors may control fungal geographic distributions, but their relative importance is unknown. We created species distribution models for 142 AM fungal taxa at the global scale with data from GenBank. We compared climate variables (BioClim and soil moisture), edaphic variables (phosphorus, carbon, pH, and clay content), and plant variables using model selection on models with (1) all variables, (2) climatic variables only (including soil moisture) and (3) resource-related variables only (all other soil parameters and NPP) using the MaxEnt algorithm evaluated with ENMEval. We also evaluated whether drivers of AM fungal distributions were phylogenetically conserved. To test whether global correlates of AM fungal distributions were reflected at local scales, we then surveyed AM fungi in nine plant hosts along three elevation gradients in the Upper Gunnison Basin, Colorado, USA. At the global scale, the distributions of 55% of AM fungal taxa were affected by both climate and soil resources, whereas 16% were only affected by climate and 29% were only affected by soil resources. Even for AM fungi that were affected by both climate and resources, the effects of climatic variables nearly always outweighed those of resources. Soil moisture and isothermality were the main climatic and NPP and soil carbon the main resource related factors influencing AM fungal distributions. Distributions of closely related AM fungal taxa were similarly affected by climate, but not by resources. Local scale surveys of AM fungi across elevations confirmed that climate was a key driver of AM fungal composition and root colonization, with weaker influences of plant identity and soil nutrients. These two studies across scales suggest prevailing effects of climate on AM fungal distributions. Thus, incorporating climate when forecasting future ranges of AM fungi will enhance predictions of AM fungal abundance and associated ecosystem functions.

The impact of physical activity on cumulative cardiovascular disease risk factors among Malaysian adults.

PubMed

Rasiah, Rajah; Thangiah, Govindamal; Yusoff, Khalid; Manikam, Rishya; Chandrasekaran, Sankara Kumar; Mustafa, Rujhan; Bakar, Najmin Binti Abu

2015-12-16

Numerous studies have shown the importance of physical activity in reducing the morbidity and mortality rates caused by cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, most of these studies emphasise little on the cumulative effect of CVD risk factors. Hence, this study investigates the association between physical exercise and cumulative CVD risk factors among adults in three different age groups. Using a sample of 7276 respondents drawn from community centers, the REDISCOVER team gathered information on physical activity, CVD risk factors (obesity, diabetes, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, tobacco use) and socioeconomic and demographic variables in Malaysia. Because the study required medical examination, a convenience sampling frame was preferred in which all volunteers were included in the study. Fasting blood samples and anthropometric (height, weight and more) measurements were collected by trained staffs. Socio-demographic and physical activity variables were recorded through questionnaires. A Chi-square test was performed to identify the bivariate association between the covariates (socioeconomic variables, demographic variables and physical activity) and outcome variable. The association between the main exposure, physical activity, and the outcome variable, cumulative CVD risk factors, was assessed using an ordinal logistic regression model, controlling for socioeconomic status and demographic influences in three different age groups, 35-49, 50-64 and 65 and above. The mean age of participants is 51.8 (SD = 9.4). Respondents in the age groups of 35-49 (aORmoderate = 0.12; 95 % CI: 0.02 - 0.53 ) and 65 and above (aORhigh = 0.58; 95 % CI: 0.24, 0.78) showed a statistically significant inverse relationship between physical activity and cumulative CVD risk factors. However, this relationship was not significant among respondents in the 50-64 age group suggesting the possible influence of other variables, such as stress and environment. The statistically significant results show a negative association between physical exercise and cumulative CVD risk factors. However, the lack of a significant relationship in the 50-64 age group suggests the need to include other considerations in future studies, such as stress and environment.

NEPTUNE'S DYNAMIC ATMOSPHERE FROM KEPLER K2 OBSERVATIONS: IMPLICATIONS FOR BROWN DWARF LIGHT CURVE ANALYSES.

PubMed

Simon, Amy A; Rowe, Jason F; Gaulme, Patrick; Hammel, Heidi B; Casewell, Sarah L; Fortney, Jonathan J; Gizis, John E; Lissauer, Jack J; Morales-Juberias, Raul; Orton, Glenn S; Wong, Michael H; Marley, Mark S

2016-02-01

Observations of Neptune with the Kepler Space Telescope yield a 49 day light curve with 98% coverage at a 1 minute cadence. A significant signature in the light curve comes from discrete cloud features. We compare results extracted from the light curve data with contemporaneous disk-resolved imaging of Neptune from the Keck 10-m telescope at 1.65 microns and Hubble Space Telescope visible imaging acquired nine months later. This direct comparison validates the feature latitudes assigned to the K2 light curve periods based on Neptune's zonal wind profile, and confirms observed cloud feature variability. Although Neptune's clouds vary in location and intensity on short and long timescales, a single large discrete storm seen in Keck imaging dominates the K2 and Hubble light curves; smaller or fainter clouds likely contribute to short-term brightness variability. The K2 Neptune light curve, in conjunction with our imaging data, provides context for the interpretation of current and future brown dwarf and extrasolar planet variability measurements. In particular we suggest that the balance between large, relatively stable, atmospheric features and smaller, more transient, clouds controls the character of substellar atmospheric variability. Atmospheres dominated by a few large spots may show inherently greater light curve stability than those which exhibit a greater number of smaller features.

Affective Computing and the Impact of Gender and Age

PubMed Central

Rukavina, Stefanie; Gruss, Sascha; Hoffmann, Holger; Tan, Jun-Wen; Walter, Steffen; Traue, Harald C.

2016-01-01

Affective computing aims at the detection of users’ mental states, in particular, emotions and dispositions during human-computer interactions. Detection can be achieved by measuring multimodal signals, namely, speech, facial expressions and/or psychobiology. Over the past years, one major approach was to identify the best features for each signal using different classification methods. Although this is of high priority, other subject-specific variables should not be neglected. In our study, we analyzed the effect of gender, age, personality and gender roles on the extracted psychobiological features (derived from skin conductance level, facial electromyography and heart rate variability) as well as the influence on the classification results. In an experimental human-computer interaction, five different affective states with picture material from the International Affective Picture System and ULM pictures were induced. A total of 127 subjects participated in the study. Among all potentially influencing variables (gender has been reported to be influential), age was the only variable that correlated significantly with psychobiological responses. In summary, the conducted classification processes resulted in 20% classification accuracy differences according to age and gender, especially when comparing the neutral condition with four other affective states. We suggest taking age and gender specifically into account for future studies in affective computing, as these may lead to an improvement of emotion recognition accuracy. PMID:26939129

Looking for variable molecular markers in the chestnut gall wasp Dryocosmus kuriphilus: first comparison across genes.

PubMed

Bonal, Raúl; Vargas-Osuna, Enrique; Mena, Juan Diego; Aparicio, José Miguel; Santoro, María; Martín, Angela

2018-04-04

The quick spread of the chestnut gall wasp Dryocosmus kuriphilus in Europe constitutes an outstanding example of recent human-aided biological invasion with dramatic economic losses. We screened for the first time a set of five nuclear and mitochondrial genes from D. kuriphilus collected in the Iberian Peninsula, and compared the sequences with those available from the native and invasive range of the species. We found no genetic variability in Iberia in none of the five genes, moreover, the three genes compared with other European samples showed no variability either. We recorded four cytochrome b haplotypes in Europe; one was genuine mitochondrial DNA and the rest nuclear copies of mitDNA (numts), what stresses the need of careful in silico analyses. The numts formed a separate cluster in the gene tree and at least two of them might be orthologous, what suggests that the invasion might have started with more than one individual. Our results point at a low initial population size in Europe followed by a quick population growth. Future studies assessing the expansion of this pest should include a large number of sampling sites and use powerful nuclear markers (e. g. Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms) to detect genetic variability.

South Pacific hydrologic and cyclone variability during the last 3000 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toomey, Michael R.; Donnelly, Jeffrey P.; Tierney, Jessica E.

2016-04-01

Major excursions in the position of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) and/or changes in its intensity are thought to drive tropical cyclone (TC) and precipitation variability across much of the central South Pacific. A lack of conventional sites typically used for multimillennial proxy reconstructions has limited efforts to extend observational rainfall/TC data sets and our ability to fully assess the risks posed to central Pacific islands by future changes in fresh water availability or the frequency of storm landfalls. Here we use the sedimentary record of Apu Bay, offshore the island of Tahaa, French Polynesia, to explore the relationship between SPCZ position/intensity and tropical cyclone overwash, resolved at decadal time scales, since 3200 years B.P. Changes in orbital precession and Pacific sea surface temperatures best explain evidence for a coordinated pattern of rainfall variability at Tahaa and across the Pacific over the late Holocene. Our companion record of tropical cyclone activity from Tahaa suggests major storm activity was higher between 2600-1500 years B.P., when decadal scale SPCZ variability may also have been stronger. A transition to lower storm frequency and a shift or expansion of the SPCZ toward French Polynesia around 1000 years B.P. may have prompted Polynesian migration into the central Pacific.

Holocene Decadal to Multidecadal Hydrologic Variability in the Everglades: Climate and Implications for Ecosystem Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moses, C. S.; Anderson, W. T.; Saunders, C.; Rebenack, C.

2009-12-01

The Florida Everglades are a complex, unique ecosystem. Adding to the complexity, a system of canals and gates control the flow of waters from central Florida southward into the Everglades, and ultimately Florida Bay and the Gulf of Mexico. With south Florida’s distinct wet and dry seasons, the hydrology has driven ecosystem evolution over the last 4-5 kya. However, since the 1920s the water content of the Everglades has largely been anthropogenically modulated, with the exception of the natural variability of evaporation and precipitation over the large area south of the Tamiami Trail. Because of the incredibly flat nature of the Everglades, small changes in the freshwater balance have substantial impacts on the diversity and distribution of organisms. Decadal and multidecadal variability in precipitation, hurricane incidence, and sea level rise all have important effects on the ecosystem. During the instrumental record, the natural precipitation across south Florida has been strongly influenced by combinations of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and ENSO. Here we discuss evidence of natural climate variability impacts on the ecosystem beyond the anthropogenic hydrological controls. Proxy environmental data from seeds, charcoal, and trees, plus the sparse, but available, instrumental records provide evidence of changes in the ecosystem over the Holocene, and suggest considerations for future management.

Psychological variables implied in the therapeutic effect of ayahuasca: A contextual approach.

PubMed

Franquesa, Alba; Sainz-Cort, Alberto; Gandy, Sam; Soler, Joaquim; Alcázar-Córcoles, Miguel Ángel; Bouso, José Carlos

2018-06-01

Ayahuasca is a psychedelic decoction originating from Amazonia. The ayahuasca-induced introspective experience has been shown to have potential benefits in the treatment of several pathologies, to protect mental health and to improve neuropsychological functions and creativity, and boost mindfulness. The underlying psychological processes related to the use of ayahuasca in a psychotherapeutic context are not yet well described in the scientific literature, but there is some evidence to suggest that psychological variables described in psychotherapies could be useful in explaining the therapeutic effects of the brew. In this study we explore the link between ayahuasca use and Decentering, Values and Self, comparing subjects without experience of ayahuasca (n = 41) with subjects with experience (n = 81). Results confirm that ayahuasca users scored higher than non-users in Decentering and Positive self, but not in Valued living, Life fulfillment, Self in social relations, Self in close relations and General self. Scores in Decentering were higher in the more experienced subjects (more than 15 occasions) than in those with less experience (less than 15 occasions). Our results show that psychological process variables may explain the outcomes in ayahuasca psychotherapy. The introduction of these variables is warranted in future ayahuasca therapeutic studies. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Anomalously weak Labrador Sea convection and Atlantic overturning during the past 150 years.

PubMed

Thornalley, David J R; Oppo, Delia W; Ortega, Pablo; Robson, Jon I; Brierley, Chris M; Davis, Renee; Hall, Ian R; Moffa-Sanchez, Paola; Rose, Neil L; Spooner, Peter T; Yashayaev, Igor; Keigwin, Lloyd D

2018-04-01

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a system of ocean currents that has an essential role in Earth's climate, redistributing heat and influencing the carbon cycle 1, 2 . The AMOC has been shown to be weakening in recent years 1 ; this decline may reflect decadal-scale variability in convection in the Labrador Sea, but short observational datasets preclude a longer-term perspective on the modern state and variability of Labrador Sea convection and the AMOC 1, 3-5 . Here we provide several lines of palaeo-oceanographic evidence that Labrador Sea deep convection and the AMOC have been anomalously weak over the past 150 years or so (since the end of the Little Ice Age, LIA, approximately AD 1850) compared with the preceding 1,500 years. Our palaeoclimate reconstructions indicate that the transition occurred either as a predominantly abrupt shift towards the end of the LIA, or as a more gradual, continued decline over the past 150 years; this ambiguity probably arises from non-AMOC influences on the various proxies or from the different sensitivities of these proxies to individual components of the AMOC. We suggest that enhanced freshwater fluxes from the Arctic and Nordic seas towards the end of the LIA-sourced from melting glaciers and thickened sea ice that developed earlier in the LIA-weakened Labrador Sea convection and the AMOC. The lack of a subsequent recovery may have resulted from hysteresis or from twentieth-century melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet 6 . Our results suggest that recent decadal variability in Labrador Sea convection and the AMOC has occurred during an atypical, weak background state. Future work should aim to constrain the roles of internal climate variability and early anthropogenic forcing in the AMOC weakening described here.

MicroRNA Predictors of Longevity in Caenorhabditis elegans

PubMed Central

Pincus, Zachary; Smith-Vikos, Thalyana; Slack, Frank J.

2011-01-01

Neither genetic nor environmental factors fully account for variability in individual longevity: genetically identical invertebrates in homogenous environments often experience no less variability in lifespan than outbred human populations. Such variability is often assumed to result from stochasticity in damage accumulation over time; however, the identification of early-life gene expression states that predict future longevity would suggest that lifespan is least in part epigenetically determined. Such “biomarkers of aging,” genetic or otherwise, nevertheless remain rare. In this work, we sought early-life differences in organismal robustness in unperturbed individuals and examined the utility of microRNAs, known regulators of lifespan, development, and robustness, as aging biomarkers. We quantitatively examined Caenorhabditis elegans reared individually in a novel apparatus and observed throughout their lives. Early-to-mid–adulthood measures of homeostatic ability jointly predict 62% of longevity variability. Though correlated, markers of growth/muscle maintenance and of metabolic by-products (“age pigments”) report independently on lifespan, suggesting that graceful aging is not a single process. We further identified three microRNAs in which early-adulthood expression patterns individually predict up to 47% of lifespan differences. Though expression of each increases throughout this time, mir-71 and mir-246 correlate with lifespan, while mir-239 anti-correlates. Two of these three microRNA “biomarkers of aging” act upstream in insulin/IGF-1–like signaling (IIS) and other known longevity pathways, thus we infer that these microRNAs not only report on but also likely determine longevity. Thus, fluctuations in early-life IIS, due to variation in these microRNAs and from other causes, may determine individual lifespan. PMID:21980307

Impact of acquisition and interpretation on total inter-observer variability in echocardiography: results from the quality assurance program of the STAAB cohort study.

PubMed

Morbach, Caroline; Gelbrich, Götz; Breunig, Margret; Tiffe, Theresa; Wagner, Martin; Heuschmann, Peter U; Störk, Stefan

2018-02-14

Variability related to image acquisition and interpretation is an important issue of echocardiography in clinical trials. Nevertheless, there is no broadly accepted standard method for quality assessment of echocardiography in clinical research reports. We present analyses based on the echocardiography quality-assurance program of the ongoing STAAB cohort study (characteristics and course of heart failure stages A-B and determinants of progression). In 43 healthy individuals (mean age 50 ± 14 years; 18 females), duplicate echocardiography scans were acquired and mutually interpreted by one of three trained sonographers and an EACVI certified physician, respectively. Acquisition (AcV), interpretation (InV), and inter-observer variability (IOV; i.e., variability between the acquisition-interpretation sequences of two different observers), were determined for selected M-mode, B-mode, and Doppler parameters. We calculated Bland-Altman upper 95% limits of absolute differences, implying that 95% of measurement differences were smaller/equal to the given value: e.g. LV end-diastolic volume (mL): 25.0, 25.0, 27.9; septal e' velocity (cm/s): 3.03, 1.25, 3.58. Further, 90, 85, and 80% upper limits of absolute differences were determined for the respective parameters. Both, acquisition and interpretation, independently and sizably contributed to IOV. As such, separate assessment of AcV and InV is likely to aid in echocardiography training and quality-assurance. Our results further suggest to routinely determine IOV in clinical trials as a comprehensive measure of imaging quality. The derived 95, 90, 85, and 80% upper limits of absolute differences are suggested as reproducibility targets of future studies, thus contributing to the international efforts of standardization in quality-assurance.

Modeling the effects of anthropogenic habitat change on savanna snake invasions into African rainforest.

PubMed

Freedman, Adam H; Buermann, Wolfgang; Lebreton, Matthew; Chirio, Laurent; Smith, Thomas B

2009-02-01

We used a species-distribution modeling approach, ground-based climate data sets, and newly available remote-sensing data on vegetation from the MODIS and Quick Scatterometer sensors to investigate the combined effects of human-caused habitat alterations and climate on potential invasions of rainforest by 3 savanna snake species in Cameroon, Central Africa: the night adder (Causus maculatus), olympic lined snake (Dromophis lineatus), and African house snake (Lamprophis fuliginosus). Models with contemporary climate variables and localities from native savanna habitats showed that the current climate in undisturbed rainforest was unsuitable for any of the snake species due to high precipitation. Limited availability of thermally suitable nest sites and mismatches between important life-history events and prey availability are a likely explanation for the predicted exclusion from undisturbed rainforest. Models with only MODIS-derived vegetation variables and savanna localities predicted invasion in disturbed areas within the rainforest zone, which suggests that human removal of forest cover creates suitable microhabitats that facilitate invasions into rainforest. Models with a combination of contemporary climate, MODIS- and Quick Scatterometer-derived vegetation variables, and forest and savanna localities predicted extensive invasion into rainforest caused by rainforest loss. In contrast, a projection of the present-day species-climate envelope on future climate suggested a reduction in invasion potential within the rainforest zone as a consequence of predicted increases in precipitation. These results emphasize that the combined responses of deforestation and climate change will likely be complex in tropical rainforest systems.

All Fatigue is Not Created Equal: The Association of Fatigue and Its Subtypes on Pain Interference in Orofacial Pain.

PubMed

Boggero, Ian A; Rojas-Ramirez, Marcia V; Carlson, Charles R

2017-03-01

Fatigue is known to be a pathway through which depression, psychological distress, pain intensity, and sleep disturbance influence pain interference, but the independent effects of fatigue on pain interference after controlling for these variables remains unknown. In addition, no study to date has tested whether fatigue subtypes of general fatigue, mental fatigue, emotional fatigue, physical fatigue, or vigor differentially predict pain interference. The current study tested these associations using archival medical data of 2133 chronic orofacial pain patients, who completed a battery of psychological questionnaires at the time of their first appointment at an orofacial pain clinic. Hierarchical linear regression analysis revealed that after controlling for depression, psychological distress, sleep disturbance, pain intensity, and demographic variables, fatigue predicted higher pain interference (B=0.70, SE=0.17, P<0.001, η=0.01). Physical fatigue (B=1.70, SE=0.48, P<0.001, η=0.01) and vigor (B=-3.24, SE=0.47, P<0.001, η=0.03) were independently associated with pain interference after controlling for the aforementioned variables. The findings suggest that fatigue is an important independent predictor of pain interference and not merely a mediator. These findings also suggest that not all fatigue is created equal. Interventions aimed at reducing pain interference should target specific fatigue symptoms of physical fatigue and vigor. Future research investigating the independent associations of fatigue subtypes on pain outcomes may help clarify the nature of the interrelationships between pain and fatigue.

Future climate and land uses effects on flow and nutrient loads of a Mediterranean catchment in South Australia.

PubMed

Shrestha, Manoj K; Recknagel, Friedrich; Frizenschaf, Jacqueline; Meyer, Wayne

2017-07-15

Mediterranean catchments experience already high seasonal variability alternating between dry and wet periods, and are more vulnerable to future climate and land use changes. Quantification of catchment response under future changes is particularly crucial for better water resources management. This study assessed the combined effects of future climate and land use changes on water yield, total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) loads of the Mediterranean Onkaparinga catchment in South Australia by means of the eco-hydrological model SWAT. Six different global climate models (GCMs) under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and a hypothetical land use change were used for future simulations. The climate models suggested a high degree of uncertainty, varying seasonally, in both flow and nutrient loads; however, a decreasing trend was observed. Average monthly TN and TP load decreased up to -55% and -56% respectively and were found to be dependent on flow magnitude. The annual and seasonal water yield and nutrient loads may only slightly be affected by envisaged land uses, but significantly altered by intermediate and high emission scenarios, predominantly during the spring season. The combined scenarios indicated the possibility of declining flow in future but nutrient enrichment in summer months, originating mainly from the land use scenario, that may elevate the risk of algal blooms in downstream drinking water reservoir. Hence, careful planning of future water resources in a Mediterranean catchment requires the assessment of combined effects of multiple climate models and land use scenarios on both water quantity and quality. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Influence of potential sea level rise on societal vulnerability to hurricane storm-surge hazards, Sarasota County, Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frazier, T.G.; Wood, N.; Yarnal, B.; Bauer, D.H.

2010-01-01

Although the potential for hurricanes under current climatic conditions continue to threaten coastal communities, there is concern that climate change, specifically potential increases in sea level, could influence the impacts of future hurricanes. To examine the potential effect of sea level rise on community vulnerability to future hurricanes, we assess variations in socioeconomic exposure in Sarasota County, FL, to contemporary hurricane storm-surge hazards and to storm-surge hazards enhanced by sea level rise scenarios. Analysis indicates that significant portions of the population, economic activity, and critical facilities are in contemporary and future hurricane storm-surge hazard zones. The addition of sea level rise to contemporary storm-surge hazard zones effectively causes population and asset (infrastructure, natural resources, etc) exposure to be equal to or greater than what is in the hazard zone of the next higher contemporary Saffir-Simpson hurricane category. There is variability among communities for this increased exposure, with greater increases in socioeconomic exposure due to the addition of sea level rise to storm-surge hazard zones as one progresses south along the shoreline. Analysis of the 2050 comprehensive land use plan suggests efforts to manage future growth in residential, economic and infrastructure development in Sarasota County may increase societal exposure to hurricane storm-surge hazards. ?? 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

Influence of potential sea level rise on societal vulnerability to hurricane storm-surge hazards, Sarasota County, Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frazier, Tim G.; Wood, Nathan; Yarnal, Brent; Bauer, Denise H.

2010-01-01

Although the potential for hurricanes under current climatic conditions continue to threaten coastal communities, there is concern that climate change, specifically potential increases in sea level, could influence the impacts of future hurricanes. To examine the potential effect of sea level rise on community vulnerability to future hurricanes, we assess variations in socioeconomic exposure in Sarasota County, FL, to contemporary hurricane storm-surge hazards and to storm-surge hazards enhanced by sea level rise scenarios. Analysis indicates that significant portions of the population, economic activity, and critical facilities are in contemporary and future hurricane storm-surge hazard zones. The addition of sea level rise to contemporary storm-surge hazard zones effectively causes population and asset (infrastructure, natural resources, etc) exposure to be equal to or greater than what is in the hazard zone of the next higher contemporary Saffir–Simpson hurricane category. There is variability among communities for this increased exposure, with greater increases in socioeconomic exposure due to the addition of sea level rise to storm-surge hazard zones as one progresses south along the shoreline. Analysis of the 2050 comprehensive land use plan suggests efforts to manage future growth in residential, economic and infrastructure development in Sarasota County may increase societal exposure to hurricane storm-surge hazards.

Predictors of Extradyadic Sexual Involvement in Unmarried Opposite-Sex Relationships

PubMed Central

Maddox Shaw, Amanda M.; Rhoades, Galena K.; Allen, Elizabeth S.; Stanley, Scott M.; Markman, Howard J.

2012-01-01

Using a sample of unmarried individuals in opposite-sex romantic relationships that was representative of the United States (N = 933), the current study prospectively evaluated predictors of extradyadic sexual involvement (ESI) over 20-months. Data were collected with self-report questionnaires via U.S. mail. Participants were 18–35 years old and were 34.9% male. Variables tested as predictors included involved-partner factors such as demographic characteristics, sexual history, and mental health, as well as relationship-related factors including communication, sexual dynamics, and aspects of commitment. Future ESI was significantly predicted by lower baseline relationship satisfaction, negative communication, aggression, lower dedication, absence of plans to marry, suspicion of partner’s ESI, and partner’s ESI. It was not predicted by sexual frequency, sexual dissatisfaction, or cohabitation status. Although more problems with alcohol use, more previous sex partners, and having parents who never married one another predicted future ESI, there were many involved-partner demographic factors that did not predict later ESI (e.g., gender, age, education, religiosity, having divorced parents, and having children). None of the results were moderated by gender. These results suggest that compared to demographic characteristics, relationship dynamics and negative interactions are more strongly predictive of future ESI. Implications for future research are discussed. PMID:22524318

Earlier Snowmelt Changes the Ratio Between Early and Late Season Forest Productivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knowles, J. F.; Molotch, N. P.; Trujillo, E.; Litvak, M. E.

2017-12-01

Future projections of declining snowpack and increasing potential evaporation associated with climate warming are predicted to advance the timing of snowmelt in mountain ecosystems globally. This scenario has direct implications for snowmelt-driven forest productivity, but the net effect of temporally shifting moisture dynamics is unknown with respect to the annual carbon balance. Accordingly, this study uses both satellite- and tower-based observations to document the forest productivity response to snowpack and potential evaporation variability between 1989 and 2012 throughout the southern Rocky Mountain ecoregion, USA. These results show that a combination of low snow accumulation and record high potential evaporation in 2012 resulted in the 34-year minimum ecosystem productivity that could be indicative of future conditions. Moreover, early and late season productivity were significantly and inversely related, suggesting that future shifts toward earlier or reduced snowmelt could increase late-season moisture stress to vegetation and thus restrict productivity despite a longer growing season. This relationship was further subject to modification by summer precipitation, and the controls on the early/late season productivity ratio are explored within the context of ecosystem carbon storage in the future. Any perturbation to the carbon cycle at this scale represents a potential feedback to climate change since snow-covered forests represent an important global carbon sink.

Evaluations and Future Plans After Casual Sexual Experiences: Differences Across Partner Type.

PubMed

Wesche, Rose; Claxton, Shannon E; Lefkowitz, Eva S; van Dulmen, Manfred H M

2017-03-24

Casual sexual relationships and experiences (CSREs) are common among emerging adults, and their diversity may contribute to variability in their associations with mental health and future romantic relationship development. The present research used multiple regression analyses to examine how CSRE type (casual dating, friends with benefits [FWB], or booty call/one-night stand) is associated with short-term outcomes of these experiences, including positive and negative evaluations, plans to start a romantic relationship with a CSRE partner, and general plans for future CSREs. College students and non-college-attending emerging adults (N = 192, 80% female, mean age = 22.09 years) reported on recent sexual encounters through daily diaries collected around an alcohol consumption holiday. Individuals with casual dating partners evaluated their experiences more positively and/or less negatively than individuals with booty calls/one-night stands; these associations were moderated by gender and sexual behavior type. Individuals with casual dating partners were more oriented toward pursuing a romantic relationship with their partners than individuals with FWB or booty calls/one-night stands. However, no association was found between CSRE type and plans for future CSREs in general. Results highlight the diversity of CSREs and suggest that casual dating may be more rewarding than FWB and booty calls/one-night stands, particularly for women.

Climate variability and demand growth as drivers of water scarcity in the Turkwel river basin: a bottom-up risk assessment of a data-sparse basin in Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirpa, F. A.; Dyer, E.; Hope, R.; Dadson, S. J.

2017-12-01

Sustainable water management and allocation are essential for maintaining human well-being, sustaining healthy ecosystems, and supporting steady economic growth. The Turkwel river basin, located in north-western Kenya, experiences a high level of water scarcity due to its arid climate, high rainfall variability, and rapidly growing water demand. However, due to sparse hydro-climatic data and limited literature, the water resources system of the basin has been poorly understood. Here we apply a bottom-up climate risk assessment method to estimate the resilience of the basin's water resources system to growing demand and climate stressors. First, using a water resource system model and historical climate data, we construct a climate risk map that depicts the way in which the system responds to climate change and variability. Then we develop a set of water demand scenarios to identify the conditions that potentially lead to the risk of unmet water demand and groundwater depletion. Finally, we investigate the impact of climate change and variability by stress testing these development scenarios against historically strong El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) years and future climate projections from multiple Global Circulation Models (GCMs). The results reveal that climate variability and increased water demand are the main drivers of water scarcity in the basin. Our findings show that increases in water demand due to expanded irrigation and population growth exert the strongest influence on the ability of the system to meet water resource supply requirements, and in all cases considered increase the impacts of droughts caused by future climate variability. Our analysis illustrates the importance of combining analysis of future climate risks with other development decisions that affect water resources planning. Policy and investment decisions which maximise water use efficiency in the present day are likely to impart resilience to climate change and variability under a wide range of future scenarios and therefore constitute low regret measures for climate adaptation.

Managing temptation in obesity treatment: a neurobehavioral model of intervention strategies

PubMed Central

Appelhans, Bradley M; French, Simone A; Pagoto, Sherry L; Sherwood, Nancy E

2015-01-01

Weight loss outcomes in lifestyle interventions for obesity are primarily a function of sustained adherence to a reduced-energy diet, and most lapses in diet adherence are precipitated by temptation from palatable food. The high nonresponse and relapse rates of lifestyle interventions suggest that current temptation management approaches may be insufficient for most participants. In this conceptual review, we discuss three neurobehavioral processes (attentional bias, temporal discounting, and the cold-hot empathy gap) that emerge during temptation and contribute to lapses in diet adherence. Characterizing the neurobehavioral profile of temptation highlights an important distinction between temptation resistance strategies aimed at overcoming temptation while it is experienced, and temptation prevention strategies that seek to avoid or minimize exposure to tempting stimuli. Many temptation resistance and temptation prevention strategies heavily rely on executive functions mediated by prefrontal systems that are prone to disruption by common occurrences such as stress, insufficient sleep, and even exposure to tempting stimuli. In contrast, commitment strategies are a set of devices that enable individuals to manage temptation by constraining their future choices, without placing heavy demands on executive functions. These concepts are synthesized in a conceptual model that categorizes temptation management approaches based on their intended effects on reward processing and degree of reliance on executive functions. We conclude by discussing the implications of our model for strengthening temptation management approaches in future lifestyle interventions, tailoring these approaches based on key individual difference variables, and suggesting high-priority topics for future research. PMID:26431681

VARIABILITY IN HOT CARBON-DOMINATED ATMOSPHERE (HOT DQ) WHITE DWARFS: RAPID ROTATION?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Williams, Kurtis A.; Bierwagen, Michael; Montgomery, M. H.

2016-01-20

Hot white dwarfs (WDs) with carbon-dominated atmospheres (hot DQs) are a cryptic class of WDs. In addition to their deficiency of hydrogen and helium, most of these stars are highly magnetic, and a large fraction vary in luminosity. This variability has been ascribed to nonradial pulsations, but increasing data call this explanation into question. We present studies of short-term variability in seven hot DQ WDs. Three (SDSS J1426+5752, SDSS J2200−0741, and SDSS J2348−0942) were known to be variable. Their photometric modulations are coherent over at least two years, and we find no evidence for variability at frequencies that are notmore » harmonics. We present the first time-series photometry for three additional hot DQs (SDSS J0236−0734, SDSS J1402+3818, and SDSS J1615+4543); none are observed to vary, but the signal-to-noise is low. Finally, we present high speed photometry for SDSS J0005−1002, known to exhibit a 2.1-day photometric variation; we do not observe any short-term variability. Monoperiodicity is rare among pulsating WDs, so we contemplate whether the photometric variability is due to rotation rather than pulsations; similar hypotheses have been raised by other researchers. If the variability is due to rotation, then hot DQ WDs as a class contain many rapid rotators. Given the lack of companions to these stars, the origin of any fast rotation is unclear—both massive progenitor stars and double degenerate merger remnants are possibilities. We end with suggestions of future work that would best clarify the nature of these rare, intriguing objects.« less

Estuarine Response to River Flow and Sea-Level Rise under Future Climate Change and Human Development

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Zhaoqing; Wang, Taiping; Voisin, Nathalie

Understanding the response of river flow and estuarine hydrodynamics to climate change, land-use/land-cover change (LULC), and sea-level rise is essential to managing water resources and stress on living organisms under these changing conditions. This paper presents a modeling study using a watershed hydrology model and an estuarine hydrodynamic model, in a one-way coupling, to investigate the estuarine hydrodynamic response to sea-level rise and change in river flow due to the effect of future climate and LULC changes in the Snohomish River estuary, Washington, USA. A set of hydrodynamic variables, including salinity intrusion points, average water depth, and salinity of themore » inundated area, were used to quantify the estuarine response to river flow and sea-level rise. Model results suggest that salinity intrusion points in the Snohomish River estuary and the average salinity of the inundated areas are a nonlinear function of river flow, although the average water depth in the inundated area is approximately linear with river flow. Future climate changes will shift salinity intrusion points further upstream under low flow conditions and further downstream under high flow conditions. In contrast, under the future LULC change scenario, the salinity intrusion point will shift downstream under both low and high flow conditions, compared to present conditions. The model results also suggest that the average water depth in the inundated areas increases linearly with sea-level rise but at a slower rate, and the average salinity in the inundated areas increases linearly with sea-level rise; however, the response of salinity intrusion points in the river to sea-level rise is strongly nonlinear.« less

Critical reflections on methodological challenge in arts and dementia evaluation and research.

PubMed

Gray, Karen; Evans, Simon Chester; Griffiths, Amanda; Schneider, Justine

2017-01-01

Methodological rigour, or its absence, is often a focus of concern for the emerging field of evaluation and research around arts and dementia. However, this paper suggests that critical attention should also be paid to the way in which individual perceptions, hidden assumptions and underlying social and political structures influence methodological work in the field. Such attention will be particularly important for addressing methodological challenges relating to contextual variability, ethics, value judgement and signification identified through a literature review on this topic. Understanding how, where and when evaluators and researchers experience such challenges may help to identify fruitful approaches for future evaluation.

A Meta-Analysis of Social Capital and Health: A Case for Needed Research

PubMed Central

Gilbert, Keon L.; Quinn, Sandra C.; Goodman, Robert M.; Butler, James; Wallace, John

2014-01-01

Background Social capital refers to various levels of social relationships formed through social networks. Measurement differences have lead to imprecise measurement. Methods A meta-analysis of eligible studies assessing the bivariate association between social capital and self-reported health and all-cause mortality. Results Thirty-nine studies met inclusion criteria, showing social capital increased odds of good health by 27% (95% confidence intervals [CI] =21%, 34%). Social capital variables, reciprocity increased odds of good health by 39% (95% CI = 21%, 60%), trust by 32% (95% CI =19%, 46%). Future research suggests operationalizing measures by assessing differences by race/ethnicity, gender and socioeconomic status. PMID:23548810

AFRICAN-AMERICANS’ AND LATINOS’ PERCEPTIONS OF USING HYPNOSIS TO ALLEVIATE DISTRESS BEFORE A COLONOSCOPY

PubMed Central

Miller, Sarah J.; Schnur, Julie B.; Montgomery, Guy H.; Jandorf, Lina

2013-01-01

Although colorectal cancer (CRC) screenings can effectively detect and prevent cancer, a large portion of African-Americans and Latinos do not undergo regular colonoscopy screening. Research suggests that anticipatory distress can significantly hinder minorities’ adherence to colonoscopy recommendations. There is significant promise that hypnosis may effectively reduce such distress. The current study examined African-Americans’ and Latinos’ (n = 213) perceptions of using hypnosis prior to a colonoscopy. Overall, 69.9% of the sample expressed favourable perceptions of using pre-colonoscopy hypnosis, although there was notable variability. The results from this study can guide clinical decision making and inform future research efforts. PMID:26566440

The compressed work week as organizational change: behavioral and attitudinal outcomes.

PubMed

Ronen, S; Primps, S B

1981-01-01

The results from recent studies on the compressed work week have been compiled and categorized in order to provide some basis for generalizing the effects of the work schedule on employee attitudes and behavior. It appears that attitudes toward the compressed week are favorable, with some generalization to job attitudes. Performance outcomes are ambiguous, although there are no reported decreases; fatigue seems to be the only negative aspect of the longer day. An examination of mediating variables suggests more complex relationships between the implementation of the compressed work week and potential outcomes. These relationships are described and directions are indicated for future research.

Interdependence and organizational citizenship behavior: exploring the mediating effect of group cohesion in multilevel analysis.

PubMed

Chen, Chun-Hsi Vivian; Tang, Ya-Yun; Wang, Shih-Jon

2009-12-01

The authors investigated the mechanism of group cohesion in the relationship between (a) task interdependence and goal interdependence and (b) individuals' organizational citizenship behavior (OCB). The authors adopted a multilevel perspective to facilitate understanding of the complex relations among variables. They collected data from 53 supervisors and 270 employees from R&D departments in Taiwan. The authors found that group cohesion fully mediated the effects of task interdependence and goal interdependence on employees' OCB. In addition, task interdependence had a greater effect on group cohesion than did goal interdependence. The authors discuss implications and suggestions for future research.

The Sex Chromosomes of Frogs: Variability and Tolerance Offer Clues to Genome Evolution and Function

PubMed Central

Malcom, Jacob W.; Kudra, Randal S.; Malone, John H.

2014-01-01

Frog sex chromosomes offer an ideal system for advancing our understanding of genome evolution and function because of the variety of sex determination systems in the group, the diversity of sex chromosome maturation states, the ease of experimental manipulation during early development. After briefly reviewing sex chromosome biology generally, we focus on what is known about frog sex determination, sex chromosome evolution, and recent, genomics-facilitated advances in the field. In closing we highlight gaps in our current knowledge of frog sex chromosomes, and suggest priorities for future research that can advance broad knowledge of gene dose and sex chromosome evolution. PMID:25031658

Sexual fantasy.

PubMed

Leitenberg, H; Henning, K

1995-05-01

This article reviews the research literature on sexual fantasy, a central aspect of human sexual behavior. Topics include (a) gender similarities and differences in the incidence, frequency, and content of sexual fantasies and how they relate to sociocultural and sociobiological theories of sexual behavior; (b) the association between frequency or content of sexual fantasies and variables such as age, sexual adjustment and satisfaction, guilt, sexual orientation, personality, and sexual experience; and (c) "deviant" sexual fantasies (i.e., what they are, whether they play a role in the commission of sexual crimes, and whether they can be modified). The article ends with a summary of major findings and suggestions for future research.

Somatoparaphrenia: evolving theories and concepts.

PubMed

Feinberg, Todd E; Venneri, Annalena

2014-12-01

Somatoparaphrenia, a syndrome that involves at a minimum unawareness of ownership of a body part, in addition involves productive features including delusional misidentification and confabulation. In this review we describe some of the clinical and neuroanatomical features of somatoparaphrenia highlighting its delusional and confabulatory aspects. Possible theoretical frameworks are reviewed taking into account cognitive, psychodynamic, and philosophical views. We suggest that future studies should approach this syndrome through investigations of structural and functional connectivity and focus on the possible interplay between alterations in major functional networks of the brain, such as the default mode and salience networks, but also take into account motivational variables. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatio-temporal patterns and factors controlling the hydrogeochemistry of the river Jhelum basin, Kashmir Himalaya.

PubMed

Mir, Riyaz Ahmad; Jeelani, Gh; Dar, Farooq Ahmad

2016-07-01

River Jhelum is a major source of water for growing population and irrigation in the Kashmir Himalaya. The region is trending towards water scarcity as well as quality deterioration stage due to its highly unregulated development. The existence of few literature on various aspects of the basin prompts us to study the spatio-temporal variability of its physicochemical parameters and thereby to understand the regulating hydrogeochemical mechanisms based on 50 samples collected during high flow (June 2008) and low flow (January 2009) periods. The water chemistry exhibited significant spatial variability reflecting the mixing processes in the basin. The seasonal effect does change the concentration of ions significantly with modest variability in the order of ionic abundance. The Ca(2+) ion among cations and HCO3 (-) ion among anions dominate the ionic budget and correlates significantly with the diverse lithology of the basin. Three major water types, i.e., Ca-Mg-HCO3 (72 %), Ca-HCO3 (12 %), and Mg-Ca-HCO3 (16 %), suggest that the chemical composition of water is dominantly controlled by carbonate lithology, besides a significant contribution from silicates. However, at certain sites, the biological processes and anthropogenic activities play a major role. Relatively, the lower ionic concentration during high flow period (summer season) suggested the significant influence of higher discharge via dilution effect. The higher discharge due to higher rainfall and snow melting in response to rising temperature in this period leads to strong flushing of human and agricultural wastes into the river. The factor analysis also reflected the dominant control of varied lithology and anthropogenic sources on the water quality based on the four significant factors explaining collectively about 70-81 % of the total data variance. A two-member chloride mixing model used to estimate the discharge contribution of tributaries to the main river channel showed reliable results. It may be mentioned that the regular and continuous contamination through anthropogenic sources is likely to jeopardize and degrade the water quality in the near future. Thus, critical management approaches and strategies are very imperative for its future sustainability.

Impact of Climate Change on Food Security in Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yator, J. J.

2016-12-01

This study sought to address the existing gap on the impact of climate change on food security in support of policy measures to avert famine catastrophes. Fixed and random effects regressions for crop food security were estimated. The study simulated the expected impact of future climate change on food insecurity based on the Representative Concentration Pathways scenario (RCPs). The study makes use of county-level yields estimates (beans, maize, millet and sorghum) and daily climate data (1971 to 2010). Climate variability affects food security irrespective of how food security is defined. Rainfall during October-November-December (OND), as well as during March-April-May (MAM) exhibit an inverted U-shaped relationship with most food crops; the effects are most pronounced for maize and sorghum. Beans and Millet are found to be largely unresponsive to climate variability and also to time-invariant factors. OND rains and fall and summer temperature exhibit a U-shaped relationship with yields for most crops, while MAM rains temperature exhibits an inverted U-shaped relationship. However, winter temperatures exhibit a hill-shaped relationship with most crops. Project future climate change scenarios on crop productivity show that climate change will adversely affect food security, with up to 69% decline in yields by the year 2100. Climate variables have a non-linear relationship with food insecurity. Temperature exhibits an inverted U-shaped relationship with food insecurity, suggesting that increased temperatures will increase crop food insecurity. However, maize and millet, benefit from increased summer and winter temperatures. The simulated effects of different climate change scenarios on food insecurity suggest that adverse climate change will increase food insecurity in Kenya. The largest increases in food insecurity are predicted for the RCP 8.5Wm2, compared to RCP 4.5Wm2. Climate change is likely to have the greatest effects on maize insecurity, which is likely to increase by between 8.56% and 21% by the year 2100. There exists a need for policies that safeguard agriculture against the adverse effects of climate change to alleviate food insecurity in Kenya. Therefore, it is important that climate change mitigation is given much more priority in policy planning and also implementation.

Climate risks on potato yield in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Xun; Lall, Upmanu

2016-04-01

The yield of potatoes is affected by water and temperature during the growing season. We study the impact of a suite of climate variables on potato yield at country level. More than ten climate variables related to the growth of potato are considered, including the seasonal rainfall and temperature, but also extreme conditions at different averaging periods from daily to monthly. A Bayesian hierarchical model is developed to jointly consider the risk of heat stress, cold stress, wet and drought. Future climate risks are investigated through the projection of future climate data. This study contributes to assess the risks of present and future climate risks on potatoes yield, especially the risks of extreme events, which could be used to guide better sourcing strategy and ensure food security in the future.

Projecting pest population dynamics under global warming: the combined effect of inter- and intra-annual variations.

PubMed

Zidon, Royi; Tsueda, Hirotsugu; Morin, Efrat; Morin, Shai

2016-06-01

The typical short generation length of insects makes their population dynamics highly sensitive not only to mean annual temperatures but also to their intra-annual variations. To consider the combined effect of both thermal factors under global warming, we propose a modeling framework that links general circulation models (GCMs) with a stochastic weather generator and population dynamics models to predict species population responses to inter- and intra-annual temperature changes. This framework was utilized to explore future changes in populations of Bemisia tabaci, an invasive insect pest-species that affects multiple agricultural systems in the Mediterranean region. We considered three locations representing different pest status and climatic conditions: Montpellier (France), Seville (Spain), and Beit-Jamal (Israel). We produced ensembles of local daily temperature realizations representing current and future (mid-21st century) climatic conditions under two emission scenarios for the three locations. Our simulations predicted a significant increase in the average number of annual generations and in population size, and a significant lengthening of the growing season in all three locations. A negative effect was found only in Seville for the summer season, where future temperatures lead to a reduction in population size. High variability in population size was observed between years with similar annual mean temperatures, suggesting a strong effect of intra-annual temperature variation. Critical periods were from late spring to late summer in Montpellier and from late winter to early summer in Seville and Beit-Jamal. Although our analysis suggested that earlier seasonal activity does not necessarily lead to increased populations load unless an additional generation is produced, it is highly likely that the insect will become a significant pest of open-fields at Mediterranean latitudes above 40° during the next 50 years. Our simulations also implied that current predictions based on mean temperature anomalies are relatively conservative and it is better to apply stochastic tools to resolve complex responses to climate change while taking natural variability into account. In summary, we propose a modeling framework capable of determining distinct intra-annual temperature patterns leading to large or small population sizes, for pest risk assessment and management planning of both natural and agricultural ecosystems.

The role of Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation in the global mean temperature variability

DOE PAGES

Chylek, Petr; Klett, James D.; Dubey, Manvendra K.; ...

2016-11-01

We simulated the global mean 1900–2015 warming by 42 Coupled Models Inter-comparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models varies between 0.58 and 1.70 °C. The observed warming according to the NASA GISS temperature analysis is 0.95 °C with a 1200 km smoothing radius, or 0.86 °C with a 250 km smoothing radius. The projection of the future 2015–2100 global warming under a moderate increase of anthropogenic radiative forcing (RCP4.5 scenario) by individual models is between 0.7 and 2.3 °C. The CMIP5 climate models agree that the future climate will be warmer; however, there is little consensus as to how largemore » the warming will be (reflected by an uncertainty of over a factor of three). Moreover, a parsimonious statistical regression model with just three explanatory variables [anthropogenic radiative forcing due to greenhouse gases and aerosols (GHGA), solar variability, and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) index] accounts for over 95 % of the observed 1900–2015 temperature variance. This statistical regression model reproduces very accurately the past warming (0.96 °C compared to the observed 0.95 °C) and projects the future 2015–2100 warming to be around 0.95 °C (with the IPCC 2013 suggested RCP4.5 radiative forcing and an assumed cyclic AMO behavior). The AMO contribution to the 1970–2005 warming was between 0.13 and 0.20 °C (depending on which AMO index is used) compared to the GHGA contribution of 0.49–0.58 °C. During the twenty-first century AMO cycle the AMO contribution is projected to remain the same (0.13–0.20 °C), while the GHGA contribution is expected to decrease to 0.21–0.25 °C due to the levelling off of the GHGA radiative forcing that is assumed according to the RCP4.5 scenario. Therefore, the anthropogenic contribution and natural variability are expected to contribute about equally to the anticipated global warming during the second half of the twenty-first century for the RCP4.5 trajectory.« less

The role of Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation in the global mean temperature variability

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chylek, Petr; Klett, James D.; Dubey, Manvendra K.

We simulated the global mean 1900–2015 warming by 42 Coupled Models Inter-comparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models varies between 0.58 and 1.70 °C. The observed warming according to the NASA GISS temperature analysis is 0.95 °C with a 1200 km smoothing radius, or 0.86 °C with a 250 km smoothing radius. The projection of the future 2015–2100 global warming under a moderate increase of anthropogenic radiative forcing (RCP4.5 scenario) by individual models is between 0.7 and 2.3 °C. The CMIP5 climate models agree that the future climate will be warmer; however, there is little consensus as to how largemore » the warming will be (reflected by an uncertainty of over a factor of three). Moreover, a parsimonious statistical regression model with just three explanatory variables [anthropogenic radiative forcing due to greenhouse gases and aerosols (GHGA), solar variability, and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) index] accounts for over 95 % of the observed 1900–2015 temperature variance. This statistical regression model reproduces very accurately the past warming (0.96 °C compared to the observed 0.95 °C) and projects the future 2015–2100 warming to be around 0.95 °C (with the IPCC 2013 suggested RCP4.5 radiative forcing and an assumed cyclic AMO behavior). The AMO contribution to the 1970–2005 warming was between 0.13 and 0.20 °C (depending on which AMO index is used) compared to the GHGA contribution of 0.49–0.58 °C. During the twenty-first century AMO cycle the AMO contribution is projected to remain the same (0.13–0.20 °C), while the GHGA contribution is expected to decrease to 0.21–0.25 °C due to the levelling off of the GHGA radiative forcing that is assumed according to the RCP4.5 scenario. Therefore, the anthropogenic contribution and natural variability are expected to contribute about equally to the anticipated global warming during the second half of the twenty-first century for the RCP4.5 trajectory.« less

Spatial variability in tree regeneration after wildfire delays and dampens future bark beetle outbreaks

PubMed Central

Donato, Daniel C.; Raffa, Kenneth F.; Turner, Monica G.

2016-01-01

Climate change is altering the frequency and severity of forest disturbances such as wildfires and bark beetle outbreaks, thereby increasing the potential for sequential disturbances to interact. Interactions can amplify or dampen disturbances, yet the direction and magnitude of future disturbance interactions are difficult to anticipate because underlying mechanisms remain poorly understood. We tested how variability in postfire forest development affects future susceptibility to bark beetle outbreaks, focusing on mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) and Douglas-fir beetle (Dendroctonus pseudotsugae) in forests regenerating from the large high-severity fires that affected Yellowstone National Park in Wyoming in 1988. We combined extensive field data on postfire tree regeneration with a well-tested simulation model to assess susceptibility to bark beetle outbreaks over 130 y of stand development. Despite originating from the same fire event, among-stand variation in forest structure was very high and remained considerable for over a century. Thus, simulated emergence of stands susceptible to bark beetles was not temporally synchronized but was protracted by several decades, compared with stand development from spatially homogeneous regeneration. Furthermore, because of fire-mediated variability in forest structure, the habitat connectivity required to support broad-scale outbreaks and amplifying cross-scale feedbacks did not develop until well into the second century after the initial burn. We conclude that variability in tree regeneration after disturbance can dampen and delay future disturbance by breaking spatiotemporal synchrony on the landscape. This highlights the importance of fostering landscape variability in the context of ecosystem management given changing disturbance regimes. PMID:27821739

Spatial variability in tree regeneration after wildfire delays and dampens future bark beetle outbreaks.

PubMed

Seidl, Rupert; Donato, Daniel C; Raffa, Kenneth F; Turner, Monica G

2016-11-15

Climate change is altering the frequency and severity of forest disturbances such as wildfires and bark beetle outbreaks, thereby increasing the potential for sequential disturbances to interact. Interactions can amplify or dampen disturbances, yet the direction and magnitude of future disturbance interactions are difficult to anticipate because underlying mechanisms remain poorly understood. We tested how variability in postfire forest development affects future susceptibility to bark beetle outbreaks, focusing on mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) and Douglas-fir beetle (Dendroctonus pseudotsugae) in forests regenerating from the large high-severity fires that affected Yellowstone National Park in Wyoming in 1988. We combined extensive field data on postfire tree regeneration with a well-tested simulation model to assess susceptibility to bark beetle outbreaks over 130 y of stand development. Despite originating from the same fire event, among-stand variation in forest structure was very high and remained considerable for over a century. Thus, simulated emergence of stands susceptible to bark beetles was not temporally synchronized but was protracted by several decades, compared with stand development from spatially homogeneous regeneration. Furthermore, because of fire-mediated variability in forest structure, the habitat connectivity required to support broad-scale outbreaks and amplifying cross-scale feedbacks did not develop until well into the second century after the initial burn. We conclude that variability in tree regeneration after disturbance can dampen and delay future disturbance by breaking spatiotemporal synchrony on the landscape. This highlights the importance of fostering landscape variability in the context of ecosystem management given changing disturbance regimes.

Negative impacts of high temperatures on growth of black spruce forests intensify with the anticipated climate warming.

PubMed

Girardin, Martin P; Hogg, Edward H; Bernier, Pierre Y; Kurz, Werner A; Guo, Xiao Jing; Cyr, Guillaume

2016-02-01

An increasing number of studies conclude that water limitations and heat stress may hinder the capacity of black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.) trees, a dominant species of Canada's boreal forests, to grow and assimilate atmospheric carbon. However, there is currently no scientific consensus on the future of these forests over the next century in the context of widespread climate warming. The large spatial extent of black spruce forests across the Canadian boreal forest and associated variability in climate, demography, and site conditions pose challenges for projecting future climate change responses. Here we provide an evaluation of the impacts of climate warming and drying, as well as increasing [CO2 ], on the aboveground productivity of black spruce forests across Canada south of 60°N for the period 1971 to 2100. We use a new extensive network of tree-ring data obtained from Canada's National Forest Inventory, spatially explicit simulations of net primary productivity (NPP) and its drivers, and multivariate statistical modeling. We found that soil water availability is a significant driver of black spruce interannual variability in productivity across broad areas of the western to eastern Canadian boreal forest. Interannual variability in productivity was also found to be driven by autotrophic respiration in the warmest regions. In most regions, the impacts of soil water availability and respiration on interannual variability in productivity occurred during the phase of carbohydrate accumulation the year preceding tree-ring formation. Results from projections suggest an increase in the importance of soil water availability and respiration as limiting factors on NPP over the next century due to warming, but this response may vary to the extent that other factors such as carbon dioxide fertilization, and respiration acclimation to high temperature, contribute to dampening these limitations. © 2015 Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada. Reproduced with the permission of the Minister of Natural Resources Canada.

Projecting future precipitation and temperature at sites with diverse climate through multiple statistical downscaling schemes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vallam, P.; Qin, X. S.

2017-10-01

Anthropogenic-driven climate change would affect the global ecosystem and is becoming a world-wide concern. Numerous studies have been undertaken to determine the future trends of meteorological variables at different scales. Despite these studies, there remains significant uncertainty in the prediction of future climates. To examine the uncertainty arising from using different schemes to downscale the meteorological variables for the future horizons, projections from different statistical downscaling schemes were examined. These schemes included statistical downscaling method (SDSM), change factor incorporated with LARS-WG, and bias corrected disaggregation (BCD) method. Global circulation models (GCMs) based on CMIP3 (HadCM3) and CMIP5 (CanESM2) were utilized to perturb the changes in the future climate. Five study sites (i.e., Alice Springs, Edmonton, Frankfurt, Miami, and Singapore) with diverse climatic conditions were chosen for examining the spatial variability of applying various statistical downscaling schemes. The study results indicated that the regions experiencing heavy precipitation intensities were most likely to demonstrate the divergence between the predictions from various statistical downscaling methods. Also, the variance computed in projecting the weather extremes indicated the uncertainty derived from selection of downscaling tools and climate models. This study could help gain an improved understanding about the features of different downscaling approaches and the overall downscaling uncertainty.

Impact of Climate Change on Energy Demand in the Midwestern USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, M. B.; Zhang, F.; Franklin, M.; Kotamarthi, V. R.

2008-12-01

The impact of climate change on energy demand and use is a significant issue for developing future GHG emission scenarios and developing adaptation and mitigation strategies. A number of studies have evaluated the increase in GHG emissions as a result of changes in energy production from fossil fuels, but the consequences of climate change on energy consumption have not been the focus of many studies. Here we focus on the impacts of climate change on energy use at a regional scale using the Midwestern USA as a test. The paper presents results of analyzing energy use in response to ambient temperature changes in a 17-year period from 1989 to 2006 and projection of energy use under future climate scenarios (2010-2061). This study consisted of a two-step procedure. In the first step, sensitivity of historic energy demand, specifically electricity and natural gas in residential and commercial sectors (42% of end-use energy), with respect to many climatic and non-climatic variables was examined. State-specific regression models were developed to quantify the relationship between energy use and climatic variables using degree days. We found that model parameters and base temperatures for estimating heating and cooling days varied by state and energy sector, mainly depending on climate conditions, infrastructure, economic factors, and seasonal change in energy use. In the second step, we applied these models to predict future energy demand using output data generated by the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) for the SRES A1B scenario used in the IPCC AR-4. The annual demands of electricity and natural gas were predicted for each state from 2010 to 2061. The model results indicate that the average annual electricity demand will increase 3%-5% for the southern states and 1%-3% for the northern states in the region by 2061 and that the demand for natural gas is expected to be reduced in all states. A seasonal analysis of energy distribution in response to climate variables identifies a significant peak in demand in July-August (11%-16% in southern states and 6%-10% in the northern states). These findings suggest that the energy sector is vulnerable to climate change even in the northern Midwest region of the US. Furthermore, we demonstrate that a state-level assessment can help to better identify adaptation strategies for future regional energy sector changes.

Scales of Spatial Heterogeneity of Plastic Marine Debris in the Northeast Pacific Ocean

PubMed Central

Goldstein, Miriam C.; Titmus, Andrew J.; Ford, Michael

2013-01-01

Plastic debris has been documented in many marine ecosystems, including remote coastlines, the water column, the deep sea, and subtropical gyres. The North Pacific Subtropical Gyre (NPSG), colloquially called the “Great Pacific Garbage Patch,” has been an area of particular scientific and public concern. However, quantitative assessments of the extent and variability of plastic in the NPSG have been limited. Here, we quantify the distribution, abundance, and size of plastic in a subset of the eastern Pacific (approximately 20–40°N, 120–155°W) over multiple spatial scales. Samples were collected in Summer 2009 using surface and subsurface plankton net tows and quantitative visual observations, and Fall 2010 using surface net tows only. We documented widespread, though spatially variable, plastic pollution in this portion of the NPSG and adjacent waters. The overall median microplastic numerical concentration in Summer 2009 was 0.448 particles m−2 and in Fall 2010 was 0.021 particles m−2, but plastic concentrations were highly variable over the submesoscale (10 s of km). Size-frequency spectra were skewed towards small particles, with the most abundant particles having a cross-sectional area of approximately 0.01 cm2. Most microplastic was found on the sea surface, with the highest densities detected in low-wind conditions. The numerical majority of objects were small particles collected with nets, but the majority of debris surface area was found in large objects assessed visually. Our ability to detect high-plastic areas varied with methodology, as stations with substantial microplastic did not necessarily also contain large visually observable objects. A power analysis of our data suggests that high variability of surface microplastic will make future changes in abundance difficult to detect without substantial sampling effort. Our findings suggest that assessment and monitoring of oceanic plastic debris must account for high spatial variability, particularly in regards to the evaluation of initiatives designed to reduce marine debris. PMID:24278233

Scales of spatial heterogeneity of plastic marine debris in the northeast pacific ocean.

PubMed

Goldstein, Miriam C; Titmus, Andrew J; Ford, Michael

2013-01-01

Plastic debris has been documented in many marine ecosystems, including remote coastlines, the water column, the deep sea, and subtropical gyres. The North Pacific Subtropical Gyre (NPSG), colloquially called the "Great Pacific Garbage Patch," has been an area of particular scientific and public concern. However, quantitative assessments of the extent and variability of plastic in the NPSG have been limited. Here, we quantify the distribution, abundance, and size of plastic in a subset of the eastern Pacific (approximately 20-40°N, 120-155°W) over multiple spatial scales. Samples were collected in Summer 2009 using surface and subsurface plankton net tows and quantitative visual observations, and Fall 2010 using surface net tows only. We documented widespread, though spatially variable, plastic pollution in this portion of the NPSG and adjacent waters. The overall median microplastic numerical concentration in Summer 2009 was 0.448 particles m(-2) and in Fall 2010 was 0.021 particles m(-2), but plastic concentrations were highly variable over the submesoscale (10 s of km). Size-frequency spectra were skewed towards small particles, with the most abundant particles having a cross-sectional area of approximately 0.01 cm(2). Most microplastic was found on the sea surface, with the highest densities detected in low-wind conditions. The numerical majority of objects were small particles collected with nets, but the majority of debris surface area was found in large objects assessed visually. Our ability to detect high-plastic areas varied with methodology, as stations with substantial microplastic did not necessarily also contain large visually observable objects. A power analysis of our data suggests that high variability of surface microplastic will make future changes in abundance difficult to detect without substantial sampling effort. Our findings suggest that assessment and monitoring of oceanic plastic debris must account for high spatial variability, particularly in regards to the evaluation of initiatives designed to reduce marine debris.

Major collapse of the South Pacific Convergence Zone in the future and its consequences on tropical cyclones.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menkes, C.; Dutheil, C.; Bador, M.; Lengaigne, M.; Lefèvre, J.; Jourdain, N.; Jullien, S.; Vialard, J.; Peltier, A.

2017-12-01

The South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ) is poorly represented in global climate models, with trademark biases such as the "double ITCZ" or related cold tongue biases. Such biases decrease our confidence in climate change projections for this region. We first show that WRF atmospheric simulations using a 1°x1° regional configuration capture the SPCZ mean state and interannual variability well over the 1980-2016 period. We then perform climate change experiments by adding the RCP8.5, 2080-2100 CMIP5 multi-model mean boundary anomalies to the present conditions. We find a 4° equatorward shift of the SPCZ west of 170°W, and associated 40% rainfall reduction in the southwestern Pacific. These results strongly contrast with previous studies based on CMIP5 simulations that suggest a much weaker southwestern Pacific drying ( 7%). Regional sensitivity experiments show that this CMIP5 weak response can be tracked to climatological CMIP5 SST biases, which weaken the humidity transport reduction in the south Pacific in the future and result in an underestimated projected drying of the southwest Pacific. Our experiments also point toward a large increase in the future SPCZ variability with increased frequency of zonal SPCZ events. Next we explore the fate of tropical cyclones by downscaling the previous models to 20 km. The seasonal and spatial distribution of TC genesis and occurrence are in good agreement with the observations albeit with weaker than observed annual numbers. Our reference simulation is able to simulate intense category 4 and 5 TCs. In the future climate, we show a drastic decrease in the number of TCs ( 75%), and the disappearance of the most intense (Cat 4-5) cyclones. Additional regional simulations using a completely different set of physical parameterizations yield very similar results for the SPCZ collapse, including the strong decrease of TC numbers ( 63%), underlining the robustness of our results.

Flow pathways and nutrient transport mechanisms drive hydrochemical sensitivity to climate change across catchments with different geology and topography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crossman, J.; Futter, M. N.; Whitehead, P. G.; Stainsby, E.; Baulch, H. M.; Jin, L.; Oni, S. K.; Wilby, R. L.; Dillon, P. J.

2014-07-01

Hydrological processes determine the transport of nutrients and passage of diffuse pollution. Consequently, catchments are likely to exhibit individual hydrochemical responses (sensitivities) to climate change, which is expected to alter the timing and amount of runoff, and to impact in-stream water quality. In developing robust catchment management strategies and quantifying plausible future hydrochemical conditions it is therefore equally important to consider the potential for spatial variability in, and causal factors of, catchment sensitivity, as to explore future changes in climatic pressures. This study seeks to identify those factors which influence hydrochemical sensitivity to climate change. A perturbed physics ensemble (PPE), derived from a series of Global Climate Model (GCM) variants with specific climate sensitivities was used to project future climate change and uncertainty. Using the Integrated Catchment Model of Phosphorus Dynamics (INCA-P), we quantified potential hydrochemical responses in four neighbouring catchments (with similar land use but varying topographic and geological characteristics) in southern Ontario, Canada. Responses were assessed by comparing a 30 year baseline (1968-1997) to two future periods: 2020-2049 and 2060-2089. Although projected climate change and uncertainties were similar across these catchments, hydrochemical responses (sensitivity) were highly varied. Sensitivity was governed by soil type (influencing flow pathways) and nutrient transport mechanisms. Clay-rich catchments were most sensitive, with total phosphorus (TP) being rapidly transported to rivers via overland flow. In these catchments large annual reductions in TP loads were projected. Sensitivity in the other two catchments, dominated by sandy-loams, was lower due to a larger proportion of soil matrix flow, longer soil water residence times and seasonal variability in soil-P saturation. Here smaller changes in TP loads, predominantly increases, were projected. These results suggest that the clay content of soils could be a good indicator of the sensitivity of catchments to climatic input, and reinforces calls for catchment-specific management plans.

Flow pathways and nutrient transport mechanisms drive hydrochemical sensitivity to climate change across catchments with different geology and topography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crossman, J.; Futter, M. N.; Whitehead, P. G.; Stainsby, E.; Baulch, H. M.; Jin, L.; Oni, S. K.; Wilby, R. L.; Dillon, P. J.

2014-12-01

Hydrological processes determine the transport of nutrients and passage of diffuse pollution. Consequently, catchments are likely to exhibit individual hydrochemical responses (sensitivities) to climate change, which are expected to alter the timing and amount of runoff, and to impact in-stream water quality. In developing robust catchment management strategies and quantifying plausible future hydrochemical conditions it is therefore equally important to consider the potential for spatial variability in, and causal factors of, catchment sensitivity, as it is to explore future changes in climatic pressures. This study seeks to identify those factors which influence hydrochemical sensitivity to climate change. A perturbed physics ensemble (PPE), derived from a series of global climate model (GCM) variants with specific climate sensitivities was used to project future climate change and uncertainty. Using the INtegrated CAtchment model of Phosphorus dynamics (INCA-P), we quantified potential hydrochemical responses in four neighbouring catchments (with similar land use but varying topographic and geological characteristics) in southern Ontario, Canada. Responses were assessed by comparing a 30 year baseline (1968-1997) to two future periods: 2020-2049 and 2060-2089. Although projected climate change and uncertainties were similar across these catchments, hydrochemical responses (sensitivities) were highly varied. Sensitivity was governed by quaternary geology (influencing flow pathways) and nutrient transport mechanisms. Clay-rich catchments were most sensitive, with total phosphorus (TP) being rapidly transported to rivers via overland flow. In these catchments large annual reductions in TP loads were projected. Sensitivity in the other two catchments, dominated by sandy loams, was lower due to a larger proportion of soil matrix flow, longer soil water residence times and seasonal variability in soil-P saturation. Here smaller changes in TP loads, predominantly increases, were projected. These results suggest that the clay content of soils could be a good indicator of the sensitivity of catchments to climatic input, and reinforces calls for catchment-specific management plans.

Species-specific responses to climate change and community composition determine future calcification rates of Florida Keys reefs.

PubMed

Okazaki, Remy R; Towle, Erica K; van Hooidonk, Ruben; Mor, Carolina; Winter, Rivah N; Piggot, Alan M; Cunning, Ross; Baker, Andrew C; Klaus, James S; Swart, Peter K; Langdon, Chris

2017-03-01

Anthropogenic climate change compromises reef growth as a result of increasing temperatures and ocean acidification. Scleractinian corals vary in their sensitivity to these variables, suggesting species composition will influence how reef communities respond to future climate change. Because data are lacking for many species, most studies that model future reef growth rely on uniform scleractinian calcification sensitivities to temperature and ocean acidification. To address this knowledge gap, calcification of twelve common and understudied Caribbean coral species was measured for two months under crossed temperatures (27, 30.3 °C) and CO 2 partial pressures (pCO 2 ) (400, 900, 1300 μatm). Mixed-effects models of calcification for each species were then used to project community-level scleractinian calcification using Florida Keys reef composition data and IPCC AR5 ensemble climate model data. Three of the four most abundant species, Orbicella faveolata, Montastraea cavernosa, and Porites astreoides, had negative calcification responses to both elevated temperature and pCO 2 . In the business-as-usual CO 2 emissions scenario, reefs with high abundances of these species had projected end-of-century declines in scleractinian calcification of >50% relative to present-day rates. Siderastrea siderea, the other most common species, was insensitive to both temperature and pCO 2 within the levels tested here. Reefs dominated by this species had the most stable end-of-century growth. Under more optimistic scenarios of reduced CO 2 emissions, calcification rates throughout the Florida Keys declined <20% by 2100. Under the most extreme emissions scenario, projected declines were highly variable among reefs, ranging 10-100%. Without considering bleaching, reef growth will likely decline on most reefs, especially where resistant species like S. siderea are not already dominant. This study demonstrates how species composition influences reef community responses to climate change and how reduced CO 2 emissions can limit future declines in reef calcification. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Electricity Market Games: How Agent-Based Modeling Can Help under High Penetrations of Variable Generation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gallo, Giulia

Integrating increasingly high levels of variable generation in U.S. electricity markets requires addressing not only power system and grid modeling challenges but also an understanding of how market participants react and adapt to them. Key elements of current and future wholesale power markets can be modeled using an agent-based approach, which may prove to be a useful paradigm for researchers studying and planning for power systems of the future.

The Contribution of Vegetation and Landscape Configuration for Predicting Environmental Change Impacts on Iberian Birds

PubMed Central

Triviño, Maria; Thuiller, Wilfried; Cabeza, Mar; Hickler, Thomas; Araújo, Miguel B.

2011-01-01

Although climate is known to be one of the key factors determining animal species distributions amongst others, projections of global change impacts on their distributions often rely on bioclimatic envelope models. Vegetation structure and landscape configuration are also key determinants of distributions, but they are rarely considered in such assessments. We explore the consequences of using simulated vegetation structure and composition as well as its associated landscape configuration in models projecting global change effects on Iberian bird species distributions. Both present-day and future distributions were modelled for 168 bird species using two ensemble forecasting methods: Random Forests (RF) and Boosted Regression Trees (BRT). For each species, several models were created, differing in the predictor variables used (climate, vegetation, and landscape configuration). Discrimination ability of each model in the present-day was then tested with four commonly used evaluation methods (AUC, TSS, specificity and sensitivity). The different sets of predictor variables yielded similar spatial patterns for well-modelled species, but the future projections diverged for poorly-modelled species. Models using all predictor variables were not significantly better than models fitted with climate variables alone for ca. 50% of the cases. Moreover, models fitted with climate data were always better than models fitted with landscape configuration variables, and vegetation variables were found to correlate with bird species distributions in 26–40% of the cases with BRT, and in 1–18% of the cases with RF. We conclude that improvements from including vegetation and its landscape configuration variables in comparison with climate only variables might not always be as great as expected for future projections of Iberian bird species. PMID:22216263

Variables Affecting Readiness to Benefit from Career Interventions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sampson, James P., Jr.; McClain, Mary-Catherine; Musch, Elisabeth; Reardon, Robert C.

2013-01-01

This article identifies and briefly describes the broad range of variables that may influence clients' readiness to benefit from career interventions. The article also discusses consequences of low readiness for effective use of career interventions and addresses implications for practice as well as for future research. Variables contributing to…

The impacts of climatologically-driven megadrought, past and future, on semi-arid watersheds and the water resource system they support in central Arizona, USA.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murphy, K. W.; Ellis, A. W.

2017-12-01

The sustainability of water resource systems in the western United States has previously been brought into question by drought concerns and how it will be influenced by future climate change. Although decadal droughts are observed in instrumental records, the data are typically too short and the droughts too few to render the range of hydroclimatic variability that might impact modern water resource systems in the future. Natural modes of variability are not well represented in climate models, which limits the applicability of their downscaled projections in a region of interest since drought risk would be understated. Paleoclimate data have provided evidence of megadroughts from centuries ago whose hydrologic manifestations of climate variability could readily reoccur again in the future. These can be applied to research into watershed hydrologic response and resource system resilience - past, present, and future. A 645-year tree ring reconstruction of stream flow for the Salt and Verde River watersheds in central Arizona has revealed several drought periods, some more severe than seen in the 129-year instrumental record, including a late 16th century megadrought which affected large portions of the United States. This research study translated the tree ring record into net basin water supply which drives a reservoir operations simulation model to assess how the resource system performs under such severe drought. Regional climate change scenarios were developed from the observation that watershed climate sensitivity has been twice the global warming response. These were applied to the watersheds' temperature sensitivities and precipitation elasticities (reported at AGU2014) to obtain detailed renditions of hydrologic response should megadrought reoccur in a future climate. This provided one of the first rigorous projections of surface water supply under future climate change that amplifies the impact of megadrought arising from modes of climate variability often seen in the western United States. The implications to a large reservoir system serving 40% of water demand in the metropolitan Phoenix, Arizona area is reported which enables decision making for future adaptation planning.

Augmented Ehrenfest dynamics yields a rate for surface hopping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Subotnik, Joseph E.

2010-04-01

We present a new algorithm for mixed quantum-classical dynamics that helps bridge the gap between mean-field (Ehrenfest) and surface-hopping dynamics by defining a natural rate of decoherence. In order to derive this decoherence result, we have expanded the number of independent variables in the usual Ehrenfest routine so that mixed quantum-classical derivatives are now propagated in time alongside the usual Ehrenfest variables. Having done so, we compute a unique rate of decoherence using two independent approaches: (i) by comparing the equations of motion for the joint nuclear-electronic probability density in phase space according to Ehrenfest dynamics versus partial Wigner transform dynamics and (ii) by introducing a frozen Gaussian interpretation of Ehrenfest dynamics which allows nuclear wave packets to separate. The first consequence of this work is a means to rigorously check the accuracy of standard Ehrenfest dynamics. Second, this paper suggests a nonadiabatic dynamics algorithm, whereby the nuclei are propagated on the mean-field (Ehrenfest) potential energy surface and undergo stochastic decoherence events. Our work resembles the surface-hopping algorithm of Schwartz and co-workers [J. Chem. Phys. 123, 234106 (2005)]—only now without any adjustable parameters. For the case of two electronic states, we present numerical results on the so-called "Tully problems" and emphasize that future numerical benchmarking is still needed. Future work will also treat the problem of three or more electronic states.

Influence of management and environment on Australian wheat: information for sustainable intensification and closing yield gaps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bryan, B. A.; King, D.; Zhao, G.

2014-04-01

In the future, agriculture will need to produce more, from less land, more sustainably. But currently, in many places, actual crop yields are below those attainable. We quantified the ability for agricultural management to increase wheat yields across 179 Mha of potentially arable land in Australia. Using the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM), we simulated the impact on wheat yield of 225 fertilization and residue management scenarios at a high spatial, temporal, and agronomic resolution from 1900 to 2010. The influence of management and environmental variables on wheat yield was then assessed using Spearman’s non-parametric correlation test with bootstrapping. While residue management showed little correlation, fertilization strongly increased wheat yield up to around 100 kg N ha-1 yr-1. However, this effect was highly dependent on the key environment variables of rainfall, temperature, and soil water holding capacity. The influence of fertilization on yield was stronger in cooler, wetter climates, and in soils with greater water holding capacity. We conclude that the effectiveness of management intensification to increase wheat yield is highly dependent upon local climate and soil conditions. We provide context-specific information on the yield benefits of fertilization to support adaptive agronomic decision-making and contribute to the closure of yield gaps. We also suggest that future assessments consider the economic and environmental sustainability of management intensification for closing yield gaps.

Multi-year high-frequency hydrothermal monitoring of selected high-threat Cascade Range volcanoes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crankshaw, I. M.; Archfield, S. A.; Newman, A. C.; Bergfeld, D.; Clor, L. E.; Spicer, K. R.; Kelly, P. J.; Evans, W. C.; Ingebritsen, S. E.

2018-05-01

From 2009 to 2015 the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) systematically monitored hydrothermal behavior at selected Cascade Range volcanoes in order to define baseline hydrothermal and geochemical conditions. Gas and water data were collected regularly at 25 sites on 10 of the highest-risk volcanoes in the Cascade Range. These sites include near-summit fumarole groups and springs/streams that show clear evidence of magmatic influence (high 3He/4He ratios and/or large fluxes of magmatic CO2 or heat). Site records consist mainly of hourly temperature and hydrothermal-flux data. Having established baseline conditions during a multiyear quiescent period, the USGS reduced monitoring frequency from 2015 to present. The archived monitoring data are housed at (doi:10.5066/F72N5088). These data (1) are suitable for retrospective comparison with other continuous geophysical monitoring data and (2) will provide context during future episodes of volcanic unrest, such that unrest-related variations at these thoroughly characterized sites will be more clearly recognizable. Relatively high-frequency year-round data are essential to achieve these objectives, because many of the time series reveal significant diurnal, seasonal, and inter-annual variability that would tend to mask unrest signals in the absence of baseline data. Here we characterize normal variability for each site, suggest strategies to detect future volcanic unrest, and explore deviations from background associated with recent unrest.

Genetic variation and structure in remnant population of critically endangered Melicope zahlbruckneri

USGS Publications Warehouse

Raji, J. A.; Atkinson, Carter T.

2016-01-01

The distribution and amount of genetic variation within and between populations of plant species are important for their adaptability to future habitat changes and also critical for their restoration and overall management. This study was initiated to assess the genetic status of the remnant population of Melicope zahlbruckneri–a critically endangered species in Hawaii, and determine the extent of genetic variation and diversity in order to propose valuable conservation approaches. Estimated genetic structure of individuals based on molecular marker allele frequencies identified genetic groups with low overall differentiation but identified the most genetically diverse individuals within the population. Analysis of Amplified Fragment Length Polymorphic (AFLP) marker loci in the population based on Bayesian model and multivariate statistics classified the population into four subgroups. We inferred a mixed species population structure based on Bayesian clustering and frequency of unique alleles. The percentage of Polymorphic Fragment (PPF) ranged from 18.8 to 64.6% for all marker loci with an average of 54.9% within the population. Inclusion of all surviving M. zahlbruckneri trees in future restorative planting at new sites are suggested, and approaches for longer term maintenance of genetic variability are discussed. To our knowledge, this study represents the first report of molecular genetic analysis of the remaining population of M. zahlbruckneri and also illustrates the importance of genetic variability for conservation of a small endangered population.

Projected heat-related mortality under climate change in the metropolitan area of Skopje.

PubMed

Martinez, Gerardo Sanchez; Baccini, Michela; De Ridder, Koen; Hooyberghs, Hans; Lefebvre, Wouter; Kendrovski, Vladimir; Scott, Kristen; Spasenovska, Margarita

2016-05-16

Excessive summer heat is a serious environmental health problem in Skopje, the capital and largest city of the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. This paper attempts to forecast the impact of heat on mortality in Skopje in two future periods under climate change and compare it with a historical baseline period. After ascertaining the relationship between daily mean ambient air temperature and daily mortality in Skopje, we modelled the evolution of ambient temperatures in the city under a Representative Concentration Pathway scenario (RCP8.5) and the evolution of the city population in two future time periods: 2026-2045 and 2081-2100, and in a past time period (1986-2005) to serve as baseline for comparison. We then calculated the projected average annual mortality attributable to heat in the absence of adaptation or acclimatization during those time windows, and evaluated the contribution of each source of uncertainty on the final impact. Our estimates suggest that, compared to the baseline period (1986-2005), heat-related mortality in Skopje would more than double in 2026-2045, and more than quadruple in 2081-2100. When considering the impact in 2081-2100, sampling variability around the heat-mortality relationship and climate model explained 40.3 and 46.6 % of total variability. These results highlight the importance of a long-term perspective in the public health prevention of heat exposure, particularly in the context of a changing climate.

Surfing parameter hyperspaces under climate change scenarios to design future rice ideotypes.

PubMed

Paleari, Livia; Movedi, Ermes; Cappelli, Giovanni; Wilson, Lloyd T; Confalonieri, Roberto

2017-11-01

Growing food crops to meet global demand and the search for more sustainable cropping systems are increasing the need for new cultivars in key production areas. This study presents the identification of rice traits putatively producing the largest yield benefits in five areas that markedly differ in terms of environmental conditions in the Philippines, India, China, Japan and Italy. The ecophysiological model WARM and sensitivity analysis techniques were used to evaluate phenotypic traits involved with light interception, photosynthetic efficiency, tolerance to abiotic stressors, resistance to fungal pathogens and grain quality. The analysis involved only model parameters that have a close relationship with phenotypic traits breeders are working on, to increase the in vivo feasibility of selected ideotypes. Current climate and future projections were considered, in the light of the resources required by breeding programs and of the role of weather variables in the identification of promising traits. Results suggest that breeding for traits involved with disease resistance, and tolerance to cold- and heat-induced spikelet sterility could provide benefits similar to those obtained from the improvement of traits involved with canopy structure and photosynthetic efficiency. In contrast, potential benefits deriving from improved grain quality traits are restricted by weather variability and markedly affected by G × E interactions. For this reason, district-specific ideotypes were identified using a new index accounting for both their productivity and feasibility. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Sensitivity of salmonid freshwater life history in western US streams to future climate conditions.

PubMed

Beer, W Nicholas; Anderson, James J

2013-08-01

We projected effects of mid-21st century climate on the early life growth of Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and steelhead (O. mykiss) in western United States streams. Air temperature and snowpack trends projected from observed 20th century trends were used to predict future seasonal stream temperatures. Fish growth from winter to summer was projected with temperature-dependent models of egg development and juvenile growth. Based on temperature data from 115 sites, by mid-21st century, the effects of climate change are projected to be mixed. Fish in warm-region streams that are currently cooled by snow melt will grow less, and fish in suboptimally cool streams will grow more. Relative to 20th century conditions, by mid-21st century juvenile salmonids' weights are expected to be lower in the Columbia Basin and California Central Valley, but unchanged or greater in coastal and mountain streams. Because fish weight affects fish survival, the predicted changes in weight could impact population fitness depending on other factors such as density effects, food quality and quantity changes, habitat alterations, etc. The level of year-to-year variability in stream temperatures is high and our analysis suggests that identifying effects of climate change over the natural variability will be difficult except in a few streams. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Quantifying Livestock Heat Stress Impacts in the Sahel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Broman, D.; Rajagopalan, B.; Hopson, T. M.

2014-12-01

Livestock heat stress, especially in regions of the developing world with limited adaptive capacity, has a largely unquantified impact on food supply. Though dominated by ambient air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation all affect heat stress, which can decrease livestock growth, milk production, reproduction rates, and mortality. Indices like the thermal-humidity index (THI) are used to quantify the heat stress experienced from climate variables. Livestock experience differing impacts at different index critical thresholds that are empirically determined and specific to species and breed. This lack of understanding has been highlighted in several studies with a limited knowledge of the critical thresholds of heat stress in native livestock breeds, as well as the current and future impact of heat stress,. As adaptation and mitigation strategies to climate change depend on a solid quantitative foundation, this knowledge gap has limited such efforts. To address the lack of study, we have investigated heat stress impacts in the pastoral system of Sub-Saharan West Africa. We used a stochastic weather generator to quantify both the historic and future variability of heat stress. This approach models temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation, the climate variables controlling heat stress. Incorporating large-scale climate as covariates into this framework provides a better historical fit and allows us to include future CMIP5 GCM projections to examine the climate change impacts on heat stress. Health and production data allow us to examine the influence of this variability on livestock directly, and are considered in conjunction with the confounding impacts of fodder and water access. This understanding provides useful information to decision makers looking to mitigate the impacts of climate change and can provide useful seasonal forecasts of heat stress risk. A comparison of the current and future heat stress conditions based on climate variables for West Africa will be presented, An assessment of current and future risk was obtained by linking climatic heat stress to cattle health and production. Seasonal forecasts of heat stress are also provided by modeling the heat stress climate variables using persistent large-scale climate features.

Renewable Electricity Futures (Presentation)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hand, M.

2012-10-01

This presentation library summarizes findings of NREL's Renewable Electricity Futures study, published in June 2012. RE Futures investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. It is being presented at the Utility Variable-Generation Integration Group Fall Technical Workshop on October 24, 2012.

Determining the Current and Future Health of Low-Latitude Andean Glaciers Using an Equilibrium Line Altitude Model and Hypsometric Data from the Randolph Glacier Inventory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malone, A.; MacAyeal, D. R.

2015-12-01

Mountain glaciers have been described as the water towers of world, and for many populations in the low-latitude South American Andes, glacial runoff is vital for agricultural, industrial, and basic water needs. Previous studies of low-latitude Andean glaciers suggest a precarious future due to contemporary warming. These studies have looked at trends in freezing level heights or observations of contemporary retreat. However, regional-scale understanding of low-latitude glacial responses to present and future climate change is limited, in part due to incomplete information about the extent and elevation distribution of low-latitude glaciers. The recently published Randolph Glacier Inventory (RGI) (5.0) provides the necessary information about the size and elevation distribution of low-latitude glaciers to begin such studies. We determine the contemporary equilibrium line altitudes (ELAs) for low-latitude Andean glaciers in the RGI, using a numerical energy balance ablation model driven with reanalysis and gridded data products. Contemporary ELAs tend to fall around the peak of the elevation histogram, with an exception being the southern-most outer tropical glaciers whose modeled ELAs tend to be higher than the elevation histogram for that region (see below figure). Also, we use the linear tends in temperature and precipitation from the contemporary climatology to extrapolate 21stcentury climate forcings. Modeled ELAs by the middle on the century are universally predicted to rise, with outer tropical ELAs rising more than the inner tropical glaciers. These trends continue through the end of the century. Finally, we explore how climate variables and parameters in our numerical model may vary for different warming scenarios from United Nation's IPCC AR5 report. We quantify the impacts of these changes on ELAs for various climate change trajectories. These results support previous work on the precarious future of low latitude Andean glaciers, while providing a richer understanding of the glacial impacts of contemporary and future warming. Also, this work provides analysis of processes and feedbacks between different climate variables important to glacier mass balances in a warming world, improving predictions for the fate of low-latitude Andean glaciers.

The Relation Between Child Maltreatment and Adolescent Suicidal Behavior: A Systematic Review and Critical Examination of the Literature

PubMed Central

Esposito-Smythers, Christianne; Weismoore, Julie T.; Renshaw, Keith D.

2013-01-01

A large body of research suggests that child maltreatment (CM) is associated with adolescent suicidal ideation and attempts. These studies, however, have not been critically examined and summarized in a manner that allows us to draw firm conclusions and make recommendations for future research and clinical work in this area. In this review, we evaluated all of the research literature to date examining the relationship between CM and adolescent suicidal ideation and attempts. Results generally suggest that childhood sexual abuse, physical abuse, emotional abuse, and neglect are associated with adolescent suicidal ideation and attempts across community, clinical, and high-risk samples, using cross-sectional and longitudinal research designs. In most studies, these associations remain significant when controlling for covariates such as youth demographics, mental health, family, and peer-related variables. When different forms of CM are examined in the same multivariate analysis, most research suggests that each form of CM maintains an independent association with adolescent suicidal ideation and suicide attempts. However, a subset of studies yielded evidence to suggest that sexual abuse and emotional abuse may be relatively more important in explaining suicidal behavior than physical abuse or neglect. Research also suggests an additive effect—each form of CM contributes unique variance to adolescent suicide attempts. We discuss the current limitations of this literature and offer recommendations for future research. We conclude with an overview of the clinical implications of this research, including careful, detailed screening of CM history, past suicidal behavior, and current suicidal ideation, as well as the need for integrated treatment approaches that effectively address both CM and adolescent suicidal ideation and suicide attempts. PMID:23568617

Modelling condom use: Does the theory of planned behaviour explain condom use in a low risk, community sample?

PubMed

Thomas, Joanna; Shiels, Chris; Gabbay, Mark B

2014-01-01

To date, most condom research has focused on young or high-risk groups, with little evidence about influences on condom use amongst lower-risk community samples. These groups are not risk free and may still wish to negotiate safer sex; yet the considerations involved could be different from those in higher-risk groups. Our research addresses this gap: We report a cross-sectional questionnaire study enquiring about recent condom use and future use intentions in community settings. Our sample (n = 311) purposively included couples in established relationships, known to be condom users. Items included demographics, sexual history and social-cognitive variables taken from the theory of planned behaviour. The strongest association with condom use/use intentions amongst our respondents was sexual partner's perceived willingness to use them. This applied across both univariate and multivariate analyses. Whilst most social-cognitive variables (attitudes; self-efficacy and peer social norms) were significant in univariate analyses, this was not supported in multivariate regression. Of the social-cognitive variables, only "condom-related attitudes" were retained in the model explaining recent condom use, whilst none of them entered the model explaining future use intentions. Further analysis showed that attitudes concerning pleasure, identity stigma and condom effectiveness were most salient for this cohort. Our results suggest that, in community samples, the decision to use a condom involves different considerations from those highlighted in previous research. Explanatory models for established couples should embrace interpersonal perspectives, emphasising couple-factors rather than individual beliefs. Messages to this cohort could usefully focus on negotiation skills, condom advantages (other than disease prevention) and reducing the stigma associated with use.

Extreme storm surge and wind wave climate scenario simulations at the Venetian littoral

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lionello, P.; Galati, M. B.; Elvini, E.

Scenario climate projections for extreme marine storms producing storm surges and wind waves are very important for the northern flat coast of the Adriatic Sea, where the area at risk includes a unique cultural and environmental heritage, and important economic activities. This study uses a shallow water model and a spectral wave model for computing the storm surge and the wind wave field, respectively, from the sea level pressure and wind fields that have been computed by the RegCM regional climate model. Simulations cover the period 1961-1990 for the present climate (control simulations) and the period 2071-2100 for the A2 and B2 scenarios. Generalized Extreme Value analysis is used for estimating values for the 10 and 100 year return times. The adequacy of these modeling tools for a reliable estimation of the climate change signal, without needing further downscaling is shown. However, this study has mainly a methodological value, because issues such as interdecadal variability and intermodel variability cannot be addressed, since the analysis is based on single model 30-year long simulations. The control simulation looks reasonably accurate for extreme value analysis, though it overestimates/underestimates the frequency of high/low surge and wind wave events with respect to observations. Scenario simulations suggest higher frequency of intense storms for the B2 scenario, but not for the A2. Likely, these differences are not the effect of climate change, but of climate multidecadal variability. Extreme storms are stronger in future scenarios, but differences are not statistically significant. Therefore this study does not provide convincing evidence for more stormy conditions in future scenarios.

Influence of Climate Variability on US Regional Homicide Rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harp, R. D.; Karnauskas, K. B.

2017-12-01

Recent studies have found consistent evidence of a relationship between temperature and criminal behavior. However, despite agreement in the overall relationship, little progress has been made in distinguishing between two proposed explanatory theories. The General Affective Aggression Model (GAAM) suggests that high temperatures create periods of higher heat stress that enhance individual aggressiveness, whereas the Routine Activities Theory (RAT) theorizes that individuals are more likely to be outdoors interacting with others during periods of pleasant weather with a resulting increase in both interpersonal interactions and victim availability. Further, few studies have considered this relationship within the context of climate change in a quantitative manner. In an effort to distinguish between the two theories, and to examine the statistical relationships on a broader spatial scale than previously, we combined data from the Supplementary Homicide Report (SHR—compiled by the Federal Bureau of Investigation) and the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR—compiled by the National Centers for Environmental Protection, a branch of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration). US homicide data described by the SHR was compared with seven relevant observed climate variables (temperature, dew point, relative humidity, accumulated precipitation, accumulated snowfall, snow cover, and snow depth) provided by the NARR atmospheric reanalysis. Relationships between homicide rates and climate variables, as well as reveal regional spatial patterns will be presented and discussed, along with the implications due to future climate change. This research lays the groundwork for the refinement of estimates of an oft-overlooked climate change impact, which has previously been estimated to cause an additional 22,000 murders between 2010 and 2099, including providing important constraints for empirical models of future violent crime incidences in the face of global warming.

Influence of environmental heterogeneity on the distribution and persistence of a subterranean rodent in a highly unstable landscape.

PubMed

Gómez Fernández, María Jimena; Boston, Emma S M; Gaggiotti, Oscar E; Kittlein, Marcelo J; Mirol, Patricia M

2016-12-01

In this study we combine information from landscape characteristics, demographic inference and species distribution modelling to identify environmental factors that shape the genetic distribution of the fossorial rodent Ctenomys. We sequenced the mtDNA control region and amplified 12 microsatellites from 27 populations distributed across the Iberá wetland ecosystem. Hierarchical Bayesian modelling was used to construct phylogenies and estimate divergence times. We developed species distribution models to determine what climatic variables and soil parameters predicted species presence by comparing the current to the historic and predicted future distribution of the species. Finally, we explore the impact of environmental variables on the genetic structure of Ctenomys based on current and past species distributions. The variables that consistently correlated with the predicted distribution of the species and explained the observed genetic differentiation among populations included the distribution of well-drained sandy soils and temperature seasonality. A core region of stable suitable habitat was identified from the Last Interglacial, which is projected to remain stable into the future. This region is also the most genetically diverse and is currently under strong anthropogenic pressure. Results reveal complex demographic dynamics, which have been in constant change in both time and space, and are likely linked to the evolution of the Paraná River. We suggest that any alteration of soil properties (climatic or anthropic) may significantly impact the availability of suitable habitat and consequently the ability of individuals to disperse. The protection of this core stable habitat is of prime importance given the increasing levels of human disturbance across this wetland system and the threat of climate change.

Fertility desires predictors among people living with HIV/AIDS at art care centers of two teaching hospitals in Addis Ababa.

PubMed

Negash, Shiferaw; Yusuf, Lukman; Tefera, Mengistu

2013-01-01

Studies from different contexts worldwide in both developed and developing countries in the era of wide access to antiretroviral drugs indicate that many HIV positive individuals continue to exhibit high risk sexual behaviors, fertility intentions being one of the many characteristics. Identify the level and determinants of fertility desire among people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHAs) at antiretroviral treatment (ART) centers. A cross-sectional study was conducted on randomly sampled, 396 PLWHAs. Odds ratio along with 95% confidence intervals were used to measure the association of the study variables with the outcome variable. The majority of respondents were females, 330 (83.3%), and 224 (56.6%) were in the age category of 25-35 years with the mean age of 33.5 +/- 6.61 years. From a total of 396 study subjects interviewed, 172 (43.3%) desired to have children in the future, out of which 123 (71.5%) stated positively that they intended to give birth in the near future, and of these 33 (26.8%) had taken action and are currently pregnant. CD4 count above 350/mm3, partner's desire to have a child, life time history of not having live births and number of alive children are the most important predictors of fertility desire reported in this survey. Fertility desire remains to be high. This will pose serious challenges in areas of high HIV prevalence, like Ethiopia, on the implementation of the PMTCT programs. The strong predictors of fertility desire found in our study on the other hand can be used by policy makers, planners, and health service providers in the planning and implementation of the PMTCT programs. We suggest a large scale studies to be undertaken in the future.

Impacts of Climate Change on the Timing of the Production Season of Maple Syrup in Eastern Canada

PubMed Central

Côté, Benoît; Logan, Travis; Power, Hugues; Charron, Isabelle; Duchesne, Louis

2015-01-01

Maple syrup production is an important economic activity in north-eastern North-America. The beginning and length of the production season is linked to daily variation in temperature. There are increasing concerns about the potential impact of climatic change on this industry. Here, we used weekly data of syrup yield for the 1999–2011 period from 121 maple stands in 11 regions of Québec (Canada) to predict how the period of production may be impacted by climate warming. The date at which the production begins is highly variable between years with an average range of 36 days among the regions. However, the average start date for a given region, which ranged from Julian day 65 to 83, was highly predictable (r2 = 0.88) using the average temperature from January to April (TJ-A). A logistic model predicting the weekly presence or absence of production was also developed. Using the inputs of 77 future climate scenarios issued from global models, projections of future production timing were made based on average TJ-A and on the logistic model. The projections of both approaches were in very good agreement and suggest that the sap season will be displaced to occur 15–19 days earlier on average in the 2080–2100 period. The data also show that the displacement in time will not be accompanied by a greater between years variability in the beginning of the season. However, in the southern part of Québec, very short periods of syrup production due to unfavourable conditions in the spring will occur more frequently in the future although their absolute frequencies will remain low. PMID:26682889

Impacts of Climate Change on the Timing of the Production Season of Maple Syrup in Eastern Canada.

PubMed

Houle, Daniel; Paquette, Alain; Côté, Benoît; Logan, Travis; Power, Hugues; Charron, Isabelle; Duchesne, Louis

2015-01-01

Maple syrup production is an important economic activity in north-eastern North-America. The beginning and length of the production season is linked to daily variation in temperature. There are increasing concerns about the potential impact of climatic change on this industry. Here, we used weekly data of syrup yield for the 1999-2011 period from 121 maple stands in 11 regions of Québec (Canada) to predict how the period of production may be impacted by climate warming. The date at which the production begins is highly variable between years with an average range of 36 days among the regions. However, the average start date for a given region, which ranged from Julian day 65 to 83, was highly predictable (r2 = 0.88) using the average temperature from January to April (TJ-A). A logistic model predicting the weekly presence or absence of production was also developed. Using the inputs of 77 future climate scenarios issued from global models, projections of future production timing were made based on average TJ-A and on the logistic model. The projections of both approaches were in very good agreement and suggest that the sap season will be displaced to occur 15-19 days earlier on average in the 2080-2100 period. The data also show that the displacement in time will not be accompanied by a greater between years variability in the beginning of the season. However, in the southern part of Québec, very short periods of syrup production due to unfavourable conditions in the spring will occur more frequently in the future although their absolute frequencies will remain low.

A Case Study in Caribbean Climate Change: Impacts on Crop Suitability and Small Farmer Vulnerability in St. Elizabeth, Jamaica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Curtis, W. R.; Gamble, D. W.; Popke, J.

2013-12-01

This paper examines some of the implications of climate change for farming in the Caribbean, through an analysis of future crop suitability and a case study of climate variability and agricultural practices in St. Elizabeth Parish, Jamaica. To assess potential changes in Caribbean agriculture, we present results from a water budget model based on a 100-year regional climate projection of temperature and precipitation for the circum-Caribbean basin. We find that future water deficits in the region are climate type-dependent. Savanna climates experience the largest annual changes, while semi-arid environments are greatly impacted in the spring. When the impacts of temperature and precipitation are considered separately, we find that predicted future warming, and the associated increase in evapotranspiration, has a slightly larger climatological effect on crop water need than predicted decreases in precipitation. To illustrate how a changing climate regime may impact agricultural practices, we present results from recent fieldwork in St. Elizabeth Parish, one of the main farming regions on the island of Jamaica. Drawing on data from farmer interviews and a recently-installed weather mesonet, we highlight the ways in which local microclimates influence farmer livelihood strategies and community-level vulnerability. Initial results suggest that farmers are experiencing greater climate variability, and that communities with Savanna and semi-arid type climates may be more susceptible to drought than communities in wetter, higher-elevation microclimates. These changes have enhanced the importance of irrigation technology and water management strategies for successful farming. In this context, we argue, large, well-capitalized farmers may be better able to manage the uncertainties associated with climate change, leading to an uneven landscape of vulnerability across the region.

Future streamflow droughts in glacierized catchments: the impact of dynamic glacier modelling and changing thresholds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Tiel, Marit; Van Loon, Anne; Wanders, Niko; Vis, Marc; Teuling, Ryan; Stahl, Kerstin

2017-04-01

In glacierized catchments, snowpack and glaciers function as an important storage of water and hydrographs of highly glacierized catchments in mid- and high latitudes thus show a clear seasonality with low flows in winter and high flows in summer. Due to the ongoing climate change we expect this type of storage capacity to decrease with resultant consequences for the discharge regime. In this study we focus on streamflow droughts, here defined as below average water availability specifically in the high flow season, and which methods are most suitable to characterize future streamflow droughts as regimes change. Two glacierized catchments, Nigardsbreen (Norway) and Wolverine (Alaska), are used as case study and streamflow droughts are compared between two periods, 1975-2004 and 2071-2100. Streamflow is simulated with the HBV light model, calibrated on observed discharge and seasonal glacier mass balances, for two climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 & RCP 8.5). In studies on future streamflow drought often the same variable threshold of the past has been applied to the future, but in regions where a regime shift is expected this method gives severe "droughts" in the historic high-flow period. We applied the new alternative transient variable threshold, a threshold that adapts to the changing hydrological regime and is thus better able to cope with this issue, but has never been thoroughly tested in glacierized catchments. As the glacier area representation in the hydrological modelling can also influence the modelled discharge and the derived streamflow droughts, we evaluated in this study both the difference between the historical variable threshold (HVT) and transient variable threshold (TVT) and two different glacier area conceptualisations (constant area (C) and dynamical area (D)), resulting in four scenarios: HVT-C, HVT-D, TVT-C and TVT-D. Results show a drastic decrease in the number of droughts in the HVT-C scenario due to increased glacier melt. The deficit volume is expected to be up to almost eight times larger in the future compared to the historical period (Wolverine, +674%) in the HVT-D scenario, caused by the regime shift. Using the TVT the drought characteristics between the C and D scenarios and between future and historic droughts are more similar. However, when using the TVT, causing factors of future droughts, anomalies in temperature and/or precipitation, can be analysed. This study highlights the different conclusions that may be drawn on future streamflow droughts in glacierized catchments depending on methodological choices. They could be used to answer different questions: the TVT for analysing drought processes in the future, the HVT to assess changes between historical and future periods, the constant area conceptualisation to analyse the effect of short term climate variability and the dynamical glacier area to model realistic future discharges in glacierized catchments.

Development and application of downscaled hydroclimatic predictor variables for use in climate vulnerability and assessment studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thorne, James; Boynton, Ryan; Flint, Lorraine; Flint, Alan; N'goc Le, Thuy

2012-01-01

This paper outlines the production of 270-meter grid-scale maps for 14 climate and derivative hydrologic variables for a region that encompasses the State of California and all the streams that flow into it. The paper describes the Basin Characterization Model (BCM), a map-based, mechanistic model used to process the hydrological variables. Three historic and three future time periods of 30 years (1911–1940, 1941–1970, 1971–2000, 2010–2039, 2040–2069, and 2070–2099) were developed that summarize 180 years of monthly historic and future climate values. These comprise a standardized set of fine-scale climate data that were shared with 14 research groups, including the U.S. National Park Service and several University of California groups as part of this project. We present three analyses done with the outputs from the Basin Characterization Model: trends in hydrologic variables over baseline, the most recent 30-year period; a calibration and validation effort that uses measured discharge values from 139 streamgages and compares those to Basin Characterization Model-derived projections of discharge for the same basins; and an assessment of the trends of specific hydrological variables that links historical trend to projected future change under four future climate projections. Overall, increases in potential evapotranspiration dominate other influences in future hydrologic cycles. Increased potential evapotranspiration drives decreasing runoff even under forecasts with increased precipitation, and drives increased climatic water deficit, which may lead to conversion of dominant vegetation types across large parts of the study region as well as have implications for rain-fed agriculture. The potential evapotranspiration is driven by air temperatures, and the Basin Characterization Model permits it to be integrated with a water balance model that can be derived for landscapes and summarized by watershed. These results show the utility of using a process-based model with modules representing different hydrological pathways that can be inter-linked.

Assessing surface water availability considering human water use and projected climate variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashraf, Batool; AghaKouchak, Amir; Mousavi-Baygi, Mohammd; Moftakhari, Hamed; Anjileli, Hassan

2017-04-01

Climate variability along with anthropogenic activities alter the hydrological cycle and local water availability. The overarching goal of this presentation is to demonstrate the compounding interactions between human water use/withdrawals and climate change and variability. We focus on Karkheh River basin and Urmia basin, in western Iran, that have high level of human activity and water use, and suffer from low water productivity. The future of these basins and their growth relies on sustainable water resources and hence, requires a holistic, basin-wide management to cope with water scarcity challenges. In this study, we investigate changes in the hydrology of the basin including human-induced alterations of the system, during the past three decades. Then, we investigate the individual and combined effects of climate variability and human water withdrawals on surface water storage in the 21st century. We use bias-corrected historical simulations and future projections from ensemble mean of eleven General Circulation Models (GCMs) under two climate change scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The results show that, hydrology of the studied basins are significantly dominated by human activities over the baseline period (1976 - 2005). Results show that the increased anthropogenic water demand resulting from substantial socio-economic growth in the past three decades have put significant stress on water resources. We evaluate a number of future water demand scenarios and their interactions with future climate projections. Our results show that by the end of the 21st century, the compounding effects of increased irrigation water demand and precipitation variability may lead to severe local water scarcity in these basins. Our study highlights the necessity for understanding and considering the compounding effects of human water use and future climate projections. Such studies would be useful for improving water management and developing adaption plans in water scarce regions.

Identifying the Driving Factors of Water Quality in a Sub-Watershed of the Republican River Basin, Kansas USA

PubMed Central

Burke, Morgen W. V.; Xu, Yeqian; Zheng, Haochi; VanLooy, Jeffrey

2018-01-01

Studies have shown that the agricultural expansion and land use changes in the Midwest of the U.S. are major drivers for increased nonpoint source pollution throughout the regional river systems. In this study, we empirically examined the relationship of planted area and production of three dominant crops with nitrate flux in the Republican River, Kansas, a sub-watershed of Mississippi River Basin. Our results show that land use in the region could not explain the observed changes in nitrate flux in the river. Instead, after including explanatory variables such as precipitation, growing degree days, and well water irrigation in the regression model we found that irrigation and spring precipitation could explain >85% of the variability in nitrate flux from 2000 to 2014. This suggests that changes in crop acreage and production alone cannot explain variability in nitrate flux. Future agricultural policy for the region should focus on controlling both the timing and amount of fertilizer applied to the field to reduce the potential leaching of excess fertilizer through spring time runoff and/or over-irrigation into nearby river systems. PMID:29789462

Mediterranean Diet and Its Correlates among Adolescents in Non-Mediterranean European Countries: A Population-Based Study.

PubMed

Novak, Dario; Štefan, Lovro; Prosoli, Rebeka; Emeljanovas, Arunas; Mieziene, Brigita; Milanović, Ivana; Radisavljević-Janić, Snežana

2017-02-22

Little is known about the factors which might influence the adherence to a Mediterranean diet in non-Mediterranean European countries. Thus, the main purpose of this study was to determine the associations between socioeconomic, psychological, and physical factors on a Mediterranean diet. In this cross-sectional study, participants were 14-18-year-old adolescents ( N = 3071) from two non-Mediterranean countries: Lithuania ( N = 1863) and Serbia ( N = 1208). The dependent variable was Mediterranean diet, and was assessed with the Mediterranean Diet Quality Index for children and adolescents questionnaire. Independent variables were gender, body-mass index, self-rated health, socioeconomic status, psychological distress, physical activity, and sedentary behavior. The associations between dependent and independent variables were analyzed by using logistic regression. Results showed that higher adherence to a Mediterranean diet was associated with higher self-rated health, socioeconomic status, and physical activity, yet low adherence to a Mediterranean diet was associated with being female, having higher body-mass index, psychological distress, and sedentary behavior. Our findings suggest that future studies need to explore associations between lifestyle habits-especially in target populations, such as primary and secondary school students.

Mediterranean Diet and Its Correlates among Adolescents in Non-Mediterranean European Countries: A Population-Based Study

PubMed Central

Novak, Dario; Štefan, Lovro; Prosoli, Rebeka; Emeljanovas, Arunas; Mieziene, Brigita; Milanović, Ivana; Radisavljević-Janić, Snežana

2017-01-01

Little is known about the factors which might influence the adherence to a Mediterranean diet in non-Mediterranean European countries. Thus, the main purpose of this study was to determine the associations between socioeconomic, psychological, and physical factors on a Mediterranean diet. In this cross-sectional study, participants were 14–18-year-old adolescents (N = 3071) from two non-Mediterranean countries: Lithuania (N = 1863) and Serbia (N = 1208). The dependent variable was Mediterranean diet, and was assessed with the Mediterranean Diet Quality Index for children and adolescents questionnaire. Independent variables were gender, body-mass index, self-rated health, socioeconomic status, psychological distress, physical activity, and sedentary behavior. The associations between dependent and independent variables were analyzed by using logistic regression. Results showed that higher adherence to a Mediterranean diet was associated with higher self-rated health, socioeconomic status, and physical activity, yet low adherence to a Mediterranean diet was associated with being female, having higher body-mass index, psychological distress, and sedentary behavior. Our findings suggest that future studies need to explore associations between lifestyle habits—especially in target populations, such as primary and secondary school students. PMID:28241432

Evaluation of a therapeutic community treatment program: a long-term follow-up study in Spain.

PubMed

Fernández-Montalvo, Javier; López-Goñi, José J; Illescas, Cristina; Landa, Natalia; Lorea, Iñaki

2008-01-01

The aims of this study is to carry out a long-term follow-up evaluation of a well-established therapeutic community treatment for addictions in Navarre (Spain) and to make a comparison between the program completers and the dropouts, as well as between relapsing and nonrelapsing patients, on a broad set of variables. A long-term follow-up design (mean of 6 years after leaving treatment) was used to analyze the outcomes of the therapeutic program. The sample consisted of 155 subjects (113 completers and 42 dropouts). A personal interview was carried out with each one of the located subjects. The interviews took place between September 2000 and September 2004. Treatment "dropouts" manifested a higher and earlier rate both of relapses, and of new treatments for their drug addiction than the completion group. The program was also effective in reducing criminal behavior and improving the state of health. Significant differences were found across outcome variables when comparison was made between treatment completers and "dropouts." All subjects improved on outcome variables after receiving the treatment. When relapsing and nonrelapsing patients were compared, significant outcome differences were also found between groups. The study's limitations are noted and future needed research is suggested.

Tolerance adaptation and precipitation changes complicate latitudinal patterns of climate change impacts.

PubMed

Bonebrake, Timothy C; Mastrandrea, Michael D

2010-07-13

Global patterns of biodiversity and comparisons between tropical and temperate ecosystems have pervaded ecology from its inception. However, the urgency in understanding these global patterns has been accentuated by the threat of rapid climate change. We apply an adaptive model of environmental tolerance evolution to global climate data and climate change model projections to examine the relative impacts of climate change on different regions of the globe. Our results project more adverse impacts of warming on tropical populations due to environmental tolerance adaptation to conditions of low interannual variability in temperature. When applied to present variability and future forecasts of precipitation data, the tolerance adaptation model found large reductions in fitness predicted for populations in high-latitude northern hemisphere regions, although some tropical regions had comparable reductions in fitness. We formulated an evolutionary regional climate change index (ERCCI) to additionally incorporate the predicted changes in the interannual variability of temperature and precipitation. Based on this index, we suggest that the magnitude of climate change impacts could be much more heterogeneous across latitude than previously thought. Specifically, tropical regions are likely to be just as affected as temperate regions and, in some regions under some circumstances, possibly more so.

[The substitution effect of leadership substitutes for transformational leadership in nursing organization].

PubMed

Kim, Jeong-Hee

2006-04-01

This paper was conducted to examine the effects of transformational leadership behaviors, within the substitutes for leadership model (Kerr & Jermier, 1978). Data was collected from 181 staff nurses in 3 general hospitals, with self-reporting questionnaires (MLQ developed by Bass, rd-SLS developed by Podsakoff, et al., and MSQ developed by Weiss, et al.). Descriptive statistics, factor analysis, Cronbach's alpha and moderated regression analysis were used. 1) The transformational leader behaviors and substitutes for leadership each had correlations with job satisfaction. 2) The total amount of variance accounted for by the substitutes for leadership was substantially greater than by the transformational leadership behaviors. 3) Few of the substitutes variables moderated the relationships between the transformational leader behaviors and job satisfaction in a manner consistent with that specified by Howell, Dorfman, and Kerr (1986). The finding of this study suggest that leaders need to have a better understanding of those contextual variables that influence job satisfaction. Thus future research should focus attention on the moderating effects of substitutes, as well as the things that leaders can do to influence them. In addition, it may be good to examine the effects of substitutes on other criterion variables.

Reciprocal relationships and potential feedbacks between biodiversity and disturbance.

PubMed

Hughes, A Randall; Byrnes, Jarrett E; Kimbro, David L; Stachowicz, John J

2007-09-01

Two major foci of ecological research involve reciprocal views of the relationship between biodiversity and disturbance: disturbance determines community diversity or diversity determines realized disturbance severity. Here, we present an initial attempt to synthesize these two approaches in order to understand whether feedbacks occur, and what their effects on patterns of diversity might be. Our review of published experiments shows that (i) disturbance severity can be both a cause and a consequence of local diversity in a wide range of ecosystems and (ii) shapes of the unidirectional relationships between diversity and disturbance can be quite variable. To explore how feedbacks between diversity and disturbance might operate to alter expected patterns of diversity in nature, we develop and then evaluate a conceptual model that decomposes the relationships into component parts, considering sequentially the effect of diversity on disturbance severity, and the effect of realized disturbance on diversity loss, subsequent recruitment, and competitive exclusion. Our model suggests that feedbacks can increase mean values of richness, decrease variability, and alter the patterns of correlation between diversity and disturbance in nature. We close by offering ideas for future research to help fill gaps in our understanding of reciprocal relationships among ecological variables like diversity and disturbance.