Assessing Performance of Multipurpose Reservoir System Using Two-Point Linear Hedging Rule

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sasireka, K.; Neelakantan, T. R.

2017-07-01

Reservoir operation is the one of the important filed of water resource management. Innovative techniques in water resource management are focussed at optimizing the available water and in decreasing the environmental impact of water utilization on the natural environment. In the operation of multi reservoir system, efficient regulation of the release to satisfy the demand for various purpose like domestic, irrigation and hydropower can lead to increase the benefit from the reservoir as well as significantly reduces the damage due to floods. Hedging rule is one of the emerging techniques in reservoir operation, which reduce the severity of drought by accepting number of smaller shortages. The key objective of this paper is to maximize the minimum power production and improve the reliability of water supply for municipal and irrigation purpose by using hedging rule. In this paper, Type II two-point linear hedging rule is attempted to improve the operation of Bargi reservoir in the Narmada basin in India. The results obtained from simulation of hedging rule is compared with results from Standard Operating Policy, the result shows that the application of hedging rule significantly improved the reliability of water supply and reliability of irrigation release and firm power production.

Managing risks of market price uncertainty for a microgrid operation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raghavan, Sriram

After deregulation of electricity in the United States, the day-ahead and real-time markets allow load serving entities and generation companies to bid and purchase/sell energy under the supervision of the independent system operator (ISO). The electricity market prices are inherently uncertain, and can be highly volatile. The main objective of this thesis is to hedge against the risk from the uncertainty of the market prices when purchasing/selling energy from/to the market. The energy manager can also schedule distributed generators (DGs) and storage of the microgrid to meet the demand, in addition to energy transactions from the market. The risk measure used in this work is the variance of the uncertain market purchase/sale cost/revenue, assuming the price following a Gaussian distribution. Using Markowitz optimization, the risk is minimized to find the optimal mix of purchase from the markets. The problem is formulated as a mixed integer quadratic program. The microgrid at Illinois Institute of Technology (IIT) in Chicago, IL was used as a case study. The result of this work reveals the tradeoff faced by the microgrid energy manager between minimizing the risk and minimizing the mean of the total operating cost (TOC) of the microgrid. With this information, the microgrid energy manager can make decisions in the day-ahead and real-time markets according to their risk aversion preference. The assumption of market prices following Gaussian distribution is also verified to be reasonable for the purpose of hedging against their risks. This is done by comparing the result of the proposed formulation with that obtained from the sample market prices randomly generated using the distribution of actual historic market price data.

Optimal Hedging Rule for Reservoir Refill Operation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wan, W.; Zhao, J.; Lund, J. R.; Zhao, T.; Lei, X.; Wang, H.

2015-12-01

This paper develops an optimal reservoir Refill Hedging Rule (RHR) for combined water supply and flood operation using mathematical analysis. A two-stage model is developed to formulate the trade-off between operations for conservation benefit and flood damage in the reservoir refill season. Based on the probability distribution of the maximum refill water availability at the end of the second stage, three zones are characterized according to the relationship among storage capacity, expected storage buffer (ESB), and maximum safety excess discharge (MSED). The Karush-Kuhn-Tucker conditions of the model show that the optimality of the refill operation involves making the expected marginal loss of conservation benefit from unfilling (i.e., ending storage of refill period less than storage capacity) as nearly equal to the expected marginal flood damage from levee overtopping downstream as possible while maintaining all constraints. This principle follows and combines the hedging rules for water supply and flood management. A RHR curve is drawn analogously to water supply hedging and flood hedging rules, showing the trade-off between the two objectives. The release decision result has a linear relationship with the current water availability, implying the linearity of RHR for a wide range of water conservation functions (linear, concave, or convex). A demonstration case shows the impacts of factors. Larger downstream flood conveyance capacity and empty reservoir capacity allow a smaller current release and more water can be conserved. Economic indicators of conservation benefit and flood damage compete with each other on release, the greater economic importance of flood damage is, the more water should be released in the current stage, and vice versa. Below a critical value, improving forecasts yields less water release, but an opposing effect occurs beyond this critical value. Finally, the Danjiangkou Reservoir case study shows that the RHR together with a rolling horizon decision approach can lead to a gradual dynamic refilling, indicating its potential for practical use.

Environmental hedging: A theory and method for reconciling reservoir operations for downstream ecology and water supply

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adams, L. E.; Lund, J. R.; Moyle, P. B.; Quiñones, R. M.; Herman, J. D.; O'Rear, T. A.

2017-09-01

Building reservoir release schedules to manage engineered river systems can involve costly trade-offs between storing and releasing water. As a result, the design of release schedules requires metrics that quantify the benefit and damages created by releases to the downstream ecosystem. Such metrics should support making operational decisions under uncertain hydrologic conditions, including drought and flood seasons. This study addresses this need and develops a reservoir operation rule structure and method to maximize downstream environmental benefit while meeting human water demands. The result is a general approach for hedging downstream environmental objectives. A multistage stochastic mixed-integer nonlinear program with Markov Chains, identifies optimal "environmental hedging," releases to maximize environmental benefits subject to probabilistic seasonal hydrologic conditions, current, past, and future environmental demand, human water supply needs, infrastructure limitations, population dynamics, drought storage protection, and the river's carrying capacity. Environmental hedging "hedges bets" for drought by reducing releases for fish, sometimes intentionally killing some fish early to reduce the likelihood of large fish kills and storage crises later. This approach is applied to Folsom reservoir in California to support survival of fall-run Chinook salmon in the lower American River for a range of carryover and initial storage cases. Benefit is measured in terms of fish survival; maintaining self-sustaining native fish populations is a significant indicator of ecosystem function. Environmental hedging meets human demand and outperforms other operating rules, including the current Folsom operating strategy, based on metrics of fish extirpation and water supply reliability.

Modeling seasonal water balance based on catchments' hedging strategy on evapotranspiration for climate seasonality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, S.; Zhao, J.; Wang, H.

2017-12-01

This paper develops a seasonal water balance model based on the hypothesis that natural catchments utilize hedging strategy on evapotranspiration for climate seasonality. According to the monthly aridity index, one year is split into wet season and dry season. A seasonal water balance model is developed by analogy to a two-stage reservoir operation model, in which seasonal rainfall infiltration, evapotranspiration and saturation-excess runoff is corresponding to the inflow, release and surplus of the catchment system. Then the optimal hedging between wet season and dry season evapotranspiration is analytically derived with marginal benefit principle. Water budget data sets of 320 catchments in the United States covering the period from 1980 to 2010 are used to evaluate the performance of this model. The Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency coefficient for evapotranspiration is higher than 0.5 in 84% of the study catchments; while the runoff is 87%. This paper validates catchments' hedging strategy on evapotranspiration for climate seasonality and shows its potential application for seasonal water balance, which is valuable for water resources planning and management.

Risk management and market efficiency on the Midwest Independent System Operator electricity exchange

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, Kevin

Midwest Independent Transmission System Operator, Inc. (MISO) is a non-profit regional transmission organization (RTO) that oversees electricity production and transmission across thirteen states and one Canadian province. MISO also operates an electronic exchange for buying and selling electricity for each of its five regional hubs. MISO oversees two types of markets. The forward market, which is referred to as the day-ahead (DA) market, allows market participants to place demand bids and supply offers on electricity to be delivered at a specified hour the following day. The equilibrium price, known as the locational marginal price (LMP), is determined by MISO after receiving sale offers and purchase bids from market participants. MISO also coordinates a spot market, which is known as the real-time (RT) market. Traders in the real-time market must submit bids and offers by thirty minutes prior to the hour for which the trade will be executed. After receiving purchase and sale offers for a given hour in the real time market, MISO then determines the LMP for that particular hour. The existence of the DA and RT markets allows producers and retailers to hedge against the large fluctuations that are common in electricity prices. Hedge ratios on the MISO exchange are estimated using various techniques. No hedge ratio technique examined consistently outperforms the unhedged portfolio in terms of variance reduction. Consequently, none of the hedge ratio methods in this study meet the general interpretation of FASB guidelines for a highly effective hedge. One of the major goals of deregulation is to bring about competition and increased efficiency in electricity markets. Previous research suggests that electricity exchanges may not be weak-form market efficient. A simple moving average trading rule is found to produce statistically and economically significant profits on the MISO exchange. This could call the long-term survivability of the MISO exchange into question.

Real-time reservoir operation considering non-stationary inflow prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, J.; Xu, W.; Cai, X.; Wang, Z.

2011-12-01

Stationarity of inflow has been a basic assumption for reservoir operation rule design, which is now facing challenges due to climate change and human interferences. This paper proposes a modeling framework to incorporate non-stationary inflow prediction for optimizing the hedging operation rule of large reservoirs with multiple-year flow regulation capacity. A multi-stage optimization model is formulated and a solution algorithm based on the optimality conditions is developed to incorporate non-stationary annual inflow prediction through a rolling, dynamic framework that updates the prediction from period to period and adopt the updated prediction in reservoir operation decision. The prediction model is ARIMA(4,1,0), in which parameter 4 stands for the order of autoregressive, 1 represents a linear trend, and 0 is the order of moving average. The modeling framework and solution algorithm is applied to the Miyun reservoir in China, determining a yearly operating schedule during the period from 1996 to 2009, during which there was a significant declining trend of reservoir inflow. Different operation policy scenarios are modeled, including standard operation policy (SOP, matching the current demand as much as possible), hedging rule (i.e., leaving a certain amount of water for future to avoid large risk of water deficit) with forecast from ARIMA (HR-1), hedging (HR) with perfect forecast (HR-2 ). Compared to the results of these scenarios to that of the actual reservoir operation (AO), the utility of the reservoir operation under HR-1 is 3.0% lower than HR-2, but 3.7% higher than the AO and 14.4% higher than SOP. Note that the utility under AO is 10.3% higher than that under SOP, which shows that a certain level of hedging under some inflow prediction or forecast was used in the real-world operation. Moreover, the impacts of discount rate and forecast uncertainty level on the operation will be discussed.

Metroplex Optimization Model Expansion and Analysis: The Airline Fleet, Route, and Schedule Optimization Model (AFRS-OM)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sherry, Lance; Ferguson, John; Hoffman, Karla; Donohue, George; Beradino, Frank

2012-01-01

This report describes the Airline Fleet, Route, and Schedule Optimization Model (AFRS-OM) that is designed to provide insights into airline decision-making with regards to markets served, schedule of flights on these markets, the type of aircraft assigned to each scheduled flight, load factors, airfares, and airline profits. The main inputs to the model are hedged fuel prices, airport capacity limits, and candidate markets. Embedded in the model are aircraft performance and associated cost factors, and willingness-to-pay (i.e. demand vs. airfare curves). Case studies demonstrate the application of the model for analysis of the effects of increased capacity and changes in operating costs (e.g. fuel prices). Although there are differences between airports (due to differences in the magnitude of travel demand and sensitivity to airfare), the system is more sensitive to changes in fuel prices than capacity. Further, the benefits of modernization in the form of increased capacity could be undermined by increases in hedged fuel prices

BBPH: Using progressive hedging within branch and bound to solve multi-stage stochastic mixed integer programs

DOE PAGES

Barnett, Jason; Watson, Jean -Paul; Woodruff, David L.

2016-11-27

Progressive hedging, though an effective heuristic for solving stochastic mixed integer programs (SMIPs), is not guaranteed to converge in this case. Here, we describe BBPH, a branch and bound algorithm that uses PH at each node in the search tree such that, given sufficient time, it will always converge to a globally optimal solution. Additionally, to providing a theoretically convergent “wrapper” for PH applied to SMIPs, computational results demonstrate that for some difficult problem instances branch and bound can find improved solutions after exploring only a few nodes.

What is the Effect of Interannual Hydroclimatic Variability on Water Supply Reservoir Operations?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galelli, S.; Turner, S. W. D.

2015-12-01

Rather than deriving from a single distribution and uniform persistence structure, hydroclimatic data exhibit significant trends and shifts in their mean, variance, and lagged correlation through time. Consequentially, observed and reconstructed streamflow records are often characterized by features of interannual variability, including long-term persistence and prolonged droughts. This study examines the effect of these features on the operating performance of water supply reservoirs. We develop a Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) model that can incorporate a regime-shifting climate variable. We then compare the performance of operating policies—designed with and without climate variable—to quantify the contribution of interannual variability to standard policy sub-optimality. The approach uses a discrete-time Markov chain to partition the reservoir inflow time series into small number of 'hidden' climate states. Each state defines a distinct set of inflow transition probability matrices, which are used by the SDP model to condition the release decisions on the reservoir storage, current-period inflow and hidden climate state. The experimental analysis is carried out on 99 hypothetical water supply reservoirs fed from pristine catchments in Australia—all impacted by the Millennium drought. Results show that interannual hydroclimatic variability is a major cause of sub-optimal hedging decisions. The practical import is that conventional optimization methods may misguide operators, particularly in regions susceptible to multi-year droughts.

Reliable routing in transit networks.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-07-02

The objectives of this project are (1) to make use of the newly emerging transit data sources : for evaluating the variations in transit services (especially headway), and (2) to help passengers : find optimal routing strategies to hedge against thes...

The lead-lag relationship between stock index and stock index futures: A thermal optimal path method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gong, Chen-Chen; Ji, Shen-Dan; Su, Li-Ling; Li, Sai-Ping; Ren, Fei

2016-02-01

The study of lead-lag relationship between stock index and stock index futures is of great importance for its wide application in hedging and portfolio investments. Previous works mainly use conventional methods like Granger causality test, GARCH model and error correction model, and focus on the causality relation between the index and futures in a certain period. By using a non-parametric approach-thermal optimal path (TOP) method, we study the lead-lag relationship between China Securities Index 300 (CSI 300), Hang Seng Index (HSI), Standard and Poor 500 (S&P 500) Index and their associated futures to reveal the variance of their relationship over time. Our finding shows evidence of pronounced futures leadership for well established index futures, namely HSI and S&P 500 index futures, while index of developing market like CSI 300 has pronounced leadership. We offer an explanation based on the measure of an indicator which quantifies the differences between spot and futures prices for the surge of lead-lag function. Our results provide new perspectives for the understanding of the dynamical evolution of lead-lag relationship between stock index and stock index futures, which is valuable for the study of market efficiency and its applications.

Numerical Algorithm for Delta of Asian Option

PubMed Central

Zhang, Boxiang; Yu, Yang; Wang, Weiguo

2015-01-01

We study the numerical solution of the Greeks of Asian options. In particular, we derive a close form solution of Δ of Asian geometric option and use this analytical form as a control to numerically calculate Δ of Asian arithmetic option, which is known to have no explicit close form solution. We implement our proposed numerical method and compare the standard error with other classical variance reduction methods. Our method provides an efficient solution to the hedging strategy with Asian options. PMID:26266271

Well-temperate phage: Optimal bet-hedging against local environmental collapses

DOE PAGES

Maslov, Sergei; Sneppen, Kim

2015-06-02

Upon infection of their bacterial hosts temperate phages must chose between lysogenic and lytic developmental strategies. Here we apply the game-theoretic bet-hedging strategy introduced by Kelly to derive the optimal lysogenic fraction of the total population of phages as a function of frequency and intensity of environmental downturns affecting the lytic subpopulation. “Well-temperate” phage from our title is characterized by the best long-term population growth rate. We show that it is realized when the lysogenization frequency is approximately equal to the probability of lytic population collapse. We further predict the existence of sharp boundaries in system’s environmental, ecological, and biophysicalmore » parameters separating the regions where this temperate strategy is optimal from those dominated by purely virulent or dormant (purely lysogenic) strategies. We show that the virulent strategy works best for phages with large diversity of hosts, and access to multiple independent environments reachable by diffusion. Conversely, progressively more temperate or even dormant strategies are favored in the environments, that are subject to frequent and severe temporal downturns.« less

Well-temperate phage: Optimal bet-hedging against local environmental collapses

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Maslov, Sergei; Sneppen, Kim

Upon infection of their bacterial hosts temperate phages must chose between lysogenic and lytic developmental strategies. Here we apply the game-theoretic bet-hedging strategy introduced by Kelly to derive the optimal lysogenic fraction of the total population of phages as a function of frequency and intensity of environmental downturns affecting the lytic subpopulation. “Well-temperate” phage from our title is characterized by the best long-term population growth rate. We show that it is realized when the lysogenization frequency is approximately equal to the probability of lytic population collapse. We further predict the existence of sharp boundaries in system’s environmental, ecological, and biophysicalmore » parameters separating the regions where this temperate strategy is optimal from those dominated by purely virulent or dormant (purely lysogenic) strategies. We show that the virulent strategy works best for phages with large diversity of hosts, and access to multiple independent environments reachable by diffusion. Conversely, progressively more temperate or even dormant strategies are favored in the environments, that are subject to frequent and severe temporal downturns.« less

Tradeoffs in Risk and Return of Financial Hedging Solutions to Mitigate Drought-Related Financial Risks for Water Utilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baum, R.; Characklis, G. W.

2016-12-01

Financial hedging solutions have been examined as tools for effectively mitigating water scarcity related financial risks for water utilities, and have become more prevalent as conservation (resulting in reduced revenues) and water transfers (resulting in increased costs) play larger roles in drought management. Individualized financial contracts (i.e. designed for a single utility) provide evidence of the potential benefits of financial hedging. However, individualized contracts require substantial time and information to develop, limiting their widespread implementation. More generalized contracts have also shown promise, and would allow the benefits of risk pooling to be more effectively realized, resulting in less expensive contracts. Risk pooling reduces the probability of an insurer making payouts that deviate significantly from the mean, but given that the financial risks of drought are spatially correlated amongst utilities, these more extreme "fat tail" risks remain. Any group offering these hedging contracts, whether a third-party insurer or a "mutual" comprised of many utilities, will need to balance the costs (i.e. additional risk) and benefits (i.e. returns) of alternative approaches to managing the extreme risks (e.g. through insurance layers). The balance of these different approaches will vary depending on the risk pool being considered, including the number, size and exposure of the participating utilities. This work first establishes a baseline of the tradeoffs between risk and expected return in insuring against the financial risks of water scarcity without alternative hedging approaches for water utilities across all climate divisions of the United States. Then various scenarios are analyzed to provide insight into how to maximize returns for risk pooling portfolios at various risk levels through balancing different insurance layers and hedging approaches. This analysis will provide valuable information for designing optimal financial risk management strategies for water utilities across the United States.

Determining the multi-scale hedge ratios of stock index futures using the lower partial moments method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dai, Jun; Zhou, Haigang; Zhao, Shaoquan

2017-01-01

This paper considers a multi-scale future hedge strategy that minimizes lower partial moments (LPM). To do this, wavelet analysis is adopted to decompose time series data into different components. Next, different parametric estimation methods with known distributions are applied to calculate the LPM of hedged portfolios, which is the key to determining multi-scale hedge ratios over different time scales. Then these parametric methods are compared with the prevailing nonparametric kernel metric method. Empirical results indicate that in the China Securities Index 300 (CSI 300) index futures and spot markets, hedge ratios and hedge efficiency estimated by the nonparametric kernel metric method are inferior to those estimated by parametric hedging model based on the features of sequence distributions. In addition, if minimum-LPM is selected as a hedge target, the hedging periods, degree of risk aversion, and target returns can affect the multi-scale hedge ratios and hedge efficiency, respectively.

Developmental Control and Plasticity of Fruit and Seed Dimorphism in Aethionema arabicum1[CC-BY

PubMed Central

Lenser, Teresa; Adigüzel, Nezaket; Dönmez, Ali A.; Grosche, Christopher; Kettermann, Marcel; Mayland-Quellhorst, Sara; Mohammadin, Setareh; Rümpler, Florian; Sperber, Katja; Wiegand, Nils

2016-01-01

Understanding how plants cope with changing habitats is a timely and important topic in plant research. Phenotypic plasticity describes the capability of a genotype to produce different phenotypes when exposed to different environmental conditions. In contrast, the constant production of a set of distinct phenotypes by one genotype mediates bet hedging, a strategy that reduces the temporal variance in fitness at the expense of a lowered arithmetic mean fitness. Both phenomena are thought to represent important adaptation strategies to unstable environments. However, little is known about the underlying mechanisms of these phenomena, partly due to the lack of suitable model systems. We used phylogenetic and comparative analyses of fruit and seed anatomy, biomechanics, physiology, and environmental responses to study fruit and seed heteromorphism, a typical morphological basis of a bet-hedging strategy of plants, in the annual Brassicaceae species Aethionema arabicum. Our results indicate that heteromorphism evolved twice within the Aethionemeae, including once for the monophyletic annual Aethionema clade. The dimorphism of Ae. arabicum is associated with several anatomic, biomechanical, gene expression, and physiological differences between the fruit and seed morphs. However, fruit ratios and numbers change in response to different environmental conditions. Therefore, the life-history strategy of Ae. arabicum appears to be a blend of bet hedging and plasticity. Together with the available genomic resources, our results pave the way to use this species in future studies intended to unravel the molecular control of heteromorphism and plasticity. PMID:27702842

Optimal investment strategies and hedging of derivatives in the presence of transaction costs (Invited Paper)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muratore-Ginanneschi, Paolo

2005-05-01

Investment strategies in multiplicative Markovian market models with transaction costs are defined using growth optimal criteria. The optimal strategy is shown to consist in holding the amount of capital invested in stocks within an interval around an ideal optimal investment. The size of the holding interval is determined by the intensity of the transaction costs and the time horizon. The inclusion of financial derivatives in the models is also considered. All the results presented in this contributions were previously derived in collaboration with E. Aurell.

Noise-Driven Phenotypic Heterogeneity with Finite Correlation Time in Clonal Populations.

PubMed

Lee, UnJin; Skinner, John J; Reinitz, John; Rosner, Marsha Rich; Kim, Eun-Jin

2015-01-01

There has been increasing awareness in the wider biological community of the role of clonal phenotypic heterogeneity in playing key roles in phenomena such as cellular bet-hedging and decision making, as in the case of the phage-λ lysis/lysogeny and B. Subtilis competence/vegetative pathways. Here, we report on the effect of stochasticity in growth rate, cellular memory/intermittency, and its relation to phenotypic heterogeneity. We first present a linear stochastic differential model with finite auto-correlation time, where a randomly fluctuating growth rate with a negative average is shown to result in exponential growth for sufficiently large fluctuations in growth rate. We then present a non-linear stochastic self-regulation model where the loss of coherent self-regulation and an increase in noise can induce a shift from bounded to unbounded growth. An important consequence of these models is that while the average change in phenotype may not differ for various parameter sets, the variance of the resulting distributions may considerably change. This demonstrates the necessity of understanding the influence of variance and heterogeneity within seemingly identical clonal populations, while providing a mechanism for varying functional consequences of such heterogeneity. Our results highlight the importance of a paradigm shift from a deterministic to a probabilistic view of clonality in understanding selection as an optimization problem on noise-driven processes, resulting in a wide range of biological implications, from robustness to environmental stress to the development of drug resistance.

Bioenergy and biodiversity: Intensified biomass extraction from hedges impairs habitat conditions for birds.

PubMed

Sauerbrei, Ralf; Aue, Birgit; Krippes, Christian; Diehl, Eva; Wolters, Volkmar

2017-02-01

Biomass is increasingly used as an alternative source for energy in Europe. Woody material cut from hedges is considered to provide a suitable complement to maize and oilseed rape, which are currently the dominant biomass sources. Since shrubs and trees are also important habitats for birds, however, coppicing of hedges at the landscape scale may adversely affect the diversity of the avifauna. To evaluate this risk, we estimated the response of hedge birds to three management scenarios differing in cutting intensity and hedge selection. The analysis was done using hedge data of the Lautertal municipality (n = 339 hedges; Vogelsberg area, Hesse, Germany). It focused on 25 bird species, which are all listed in the hedge programme of the German Ornithological Stations. Information on the preferences of these birds for certain hedge features such as height or width was gathered by an extensive literature review. A cluster analysis on the consolidated literature data allowed us to identify three groups of birds according to their preference for certain hedge attributes. Two groups, which included Yellowhammer (Emberiza citrinella L.) (i) and Blackbird (Turdus merula L.) (ii), favoured trees located in hedges, but differed in their preference for hedge shape, with (i) being attracted by long and broad hedges and (ii) by high hedges. The third group, which included the Whitethroat (Sylvia communis L.), preferred small hedges with gaps and medium vegetation density. Spatially explicit suitability models based on these data allowed us to predict the status quo of hedge suitability for these species groups. Field surveys proved the accuracy of the predictions to be sufficient, since the hedge suitability predicted was significantly and positively correlated to the occurrence of 9 out of the 12 testable focal species. Our models predicted biomass extraction to almost always reduce hedge suitability for the three bird groups. Concerning the Yellowhammer and the Blackbird group, a high level of biomass extraction reduced hedge suitability by approximately 20%. We thus conclude that intensively extracting biomass can significantly reduce hedge suitability for birds, despite considerable differences in habitat requirements. Considering the variable response of the bird groups to our scenarios as well as the variation in habitat occupancy by birds, however, cutting woody material from hedges nevertheless provides an option to reduce adverse effects of bioenergy production on biodiversity at the landscape scale, as long as hedge management is based on the best knowledge available. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

How hedge woody species diversity and habitat change is a function of land use history and recent management in a European agricultural landscape.

PubMed

McCann, Thomas; Cooper, Alan; Rogers, David; McKenzie, Paul; McErlean, Thomas

2017-07-01

European hedged agricultural landscapes provide a range of ecosystem services and are an important component of cultural and biodiversity heritage. This paper investigates the extent of hedges, their woody species diversity (including the influence of historical versus recent hedge origin) and dynamics of change. The rationale is to contribute to an ecological basis for hedge habitat management. Sample sites were allocated based on a multivariate classification of landscape attributes. All field boundaries present in each site were mapped and surveyed in 1998 and 2007. To assess diversity, a list of all woody species was recorded in one standard 30 m linear plot within each hedge. There was a net decrease in hedge habitat extent, mainly as a result of removal, and changes between hedges and other field boundary types due to the development and loss of shrub growth-form. Agricultural intensification, increased rural building, and variation in hedge management practices were the main drivers of change. Hedges surveyed at baseline, which were lost at resurvey, were more species rich than new hedges gained. Hedges coinciding with historical land unit boundaries of likely Early Medieval origin were found to be more species rich. The most frequent woody species in hedges were native, including a high proportion with Fraxinus excelsior, a species under threat from current and emerging plant pests and pathogens. Introduced species were present in circa 30% of hedges. We conclude that since hedge habitat distribution and woody species diversity is a function of ecology and anthropogenic factors, the management of hedges in enclosed agricultural landscapes requires an integrated approach. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

THE EVOLUTION OF BET-HEDGING ADAPTATIONS TO RARE SCENARIOS

PubMed Central

King, Oliver D.

2007-01-01

When faced with a variable environment, organisms may switch between different strategies according to some probabilistic rule. In an infinite population, evolution is expected to favor the rule that maximizes geometric mean fitness. If some environments are encountered only rarely, selection may not be strong enough for optimal switching probabilities to evolve. Here we calculate the evolution of switching probabilities in a finite population by analyzing fixation probabilities of alleles specifying switching rules. We calculate the conditions required for the evolution of phenotypic switching as a form of bet-hedging as a function of the population size N, the rateθ at which a rare environment is encountered, and the selective advantage s associated with switching in the rare environment. We consider a simplified model in which environmental switching and phenotypic switching are one-way processes, and mutation is symmetric and rare with respect to the timescale of fixation events. In this case, the approximate requirements for bet-hedging to be favored by a ratio of at least R are that sN > log(R) and θN>R. PMID:17915273

Differences between urban and rural hedges in England revealed by a citizen science project.

PubMed

Gosling, Laura; Sparks, Tim H; Araya, Yoseph; Harvey, Martin; Ansine, Janice

2016-07-22

Hedges are both ecologically and culturally important and are a distinctive feature of the British landscape. However the overall length of hedges across Great Britain is decreasing. Current challenges in studying hedges relate to the dominance of research on rural, as opposed to urban, hedges, and their variability and geographical breadth. To help address these challenges and to educate the public on the importance of hedge habitats for wildlife, in 2010 the Open Air Laboratories (OPAL) programme coordinated a hedge-focused citizen science survey. Results from 2891 surveys were analysed. Woody plant species differed significantly between urban and rural areas. Beech, Holly, Ivy, Laurel, Privet and Yew were more commonly recorded in urban hedges whereas Blackthorn, Bramble, Dog Rose, Elder and Hawthorn were recorded more often in rural hedges. Urban and rural differences were shown for some groups of invertebrates. Ants, earwigs and shieldbugs were recorded more frequently in urban hedges whereas blowflies, caterpillars, harvestmen, other beetles, spiders and weevils were recorded more frequently in rural hedges. Spiders were the most frequently recorded invertebrate across all surveys. The presence of hard surfaces adjacent to the hedge was influential on hedge structure, number and diversity of plant species, amount of food available for wildlife and invertebrate number and diversity. In urban hedges with one adjacent hard surface, the food available for wildlife was significantly reduced and in rural hedges, one adjacent hard surface affected the diversity of invertebrates. This research highlights that urban hedges may be important habitats for wildlife and that hard surfaces may have an impact on both the number and diversity of plant species and the number and diversity of invertebrates. This study demonstrates that citizen science programmes that focus on hedge surveillance can work and have the added benefit of educating the public on the importance of hedgerow habitats.

26 CFR 1.1221-2 - Hedging transactions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... another position such as a purchased option, then it may be a hedging transaction. (4) Recycling. A... liability as a hedge of another asset or liability (recycling). (5) Transactions not entered into primarily... enters into a hedging transaction (including recycling an existing hedging transaction) must clearly...

26 CFR 1.1221-2 - Hedging transactions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... another position such as a purchased option, then it may be a hedging transaction. (4) Recycling. A... liability as a hedge of another asset or liability (recycling). (5) Transactions not entered into primarily... enters into a hedging transaction (including recycling an existing hedging transaction) must clearly...

26 CFR 1.1221-2 - Hedging transactions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... another position such as a purchased option, then it may be a hedging transaction. (4) Recycling. A... liability as a hedge of another asset or liability (recycling). (5) Transactions not entered into primarily... enters into a hedging transaction (including recycling an existing hedging transaction) must clearly...

26 CFR 1.1221-2 - Hedging transactions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... another position such as a purchased option, then it may be a hedging transaction. (4) Recycling. A... liability as a hedge of another asset or liability (recycling). (5) Transactions not entered into primarily... enters into a hedging transaction (including recycling an existing hedging transaction) must clearly...

26 CFR 1.1221-2 - Hedging transactions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... another position such as a purchased option, then it may be a hedging transaction. (4) Recycling. A... liability as a hedge of another asset or liability (recycling). (5) Transactions not entered into primarily... enters into a hedging transaction (including recycling an existing hedging transaction) must clearly...

Effect of reservoir zones and hedging factor dynamism on reservoir adaptive capacity for climate change impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adeloye, Adebayo J.; Soundharajan, Bankaru-Swamy

2018-06-01

When based on the zones of available water in storage, hedging has traditionally used a single hedged zone and a constant rationing ratio for constraining supply during droughts. Given the usual seasonality of reservoir inflows, it is also possible that hedging could feature multiple hedged zones and temporally varying rationing ratios but very few studies addressing this have been reported especially in relation to adaptation to projected climate change. This study developed and tested Genetic Algorithms (GA) optimised zone-based operating policies of various configurations using data for the Pong reservoir, Himachal Pradesh, India. The results show that hedging does lessen vulnerability, which dropped from ≥ 60 % without hedging to below 25 % with the single stage hedging. More complex hedging policies, e.g. two stage and/or temporally varying rationing ratios only produced marginal improvements in performance. All this shows that water hedging policies do not have to be overly complex to effectively offset reservoir vulnerability caused by water shortage resulting from e.g. projected climate change.

Categorical Biases in Spatial Memory: The Role of Certainty

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Holden, Mark P.; Newcombe, Nora S.; Shipley, Thomas F.

2015-01-01

Memories for spatial locations often show systematic errors toward the central value of the surrounding region. The Category Adjustment (CA) model suggests that this bias is due to a Bayesian combination of categorical and metric information, which offers an optimal solution under conditions of uncertainty (Huttenlocher, Hedges, & Duncan,…

Electricity market pricing, risk hedging and modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Xu

In this dissertation, we investigate the pricing, price risk hedging/arbitrage, and simplified system modeling for a centralized LMP-based electricity market. In an LMP-based market model, the full AC power flow model and the DC power flow model are most widely used to represent the transmission system. We investigate the differences of dispatching results, congestion pattern, and LMPs for the two power flow models. An appropriate LMP decomposition scheme to quantify the marginal costs of the congestion and real power losses is critical for the implementation of financial risk hedging markets. However, the traditional LMP decomposition heavily depends on the slack bus selection. In this dissertation we propose a slack-independent scheme to break LMP down into energy, congestion, and marginal loss components by analyzing the actual marginal cost of each bus at the optimal solution point. The physical and economic meanings of the marginal effect at each bus provide accurate price information for both congestion and losses, and thus the slack-dependency of the traditional scheme is eliminated. With electricity priced at the margin instead of the average value, the market operator typically collects more revenue from power sellers than that paid to power buyers. According to the LMP decomposition results, the revenue surplus is then divided into two parts: congestion charge surplus and marginal loss revenue surplus. We apply the LMP decomposition results to the financial tools, such as financial transmission right (FTR) and loss hedging right (LHR), which have been introduced to hedge against price risks associated to congestion and losses, to construct a full price risk hedging portfolio. The two-settlement market structure and the introduction of financial tools inevitably create market manipulation opportunities. We investigate several possible market manipulation behaviors by virtual bidding and propose a market monitor approach to identify and quantify such behavior. Finally, the complexity of the power market and size of the transmission grid make it difficult for market participants to efficiently analyze the long-term market behavior. We propose a simplified power system commercial model by simulating the PTDFs of critical transmission bottlenecks of the original system.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Reynolds, Adam F.; Steinfeldt, Bradley Alexander; Lafleur, Jarret Marshall

The U.S. nuclear stockpile hedge is an inventory of non-deployed nuclear warheads and a force structure capable of deploying those warheads. Current guidance is to retain this hedge to mitigate the risk associated with the technical failure of any single warhead type or adverse geopolitical developments that could require augmentation of the force. The necessary size of the hedge depends on the composition of the nuclear stockpile and assumed constraints. Knowing the theoretical minimum hedge given certain constraints is useful when considering future weapons policy. HedgeHOGS, an Excel-based tool, was developed to enable rapid calculation of the minimum hedge sizemore » associated with varying active stockpile composition and hedging strategies.« less

Finite hedging in field theory models of interest rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baaquie, Belal E.; Srikant, Marakani

2004-03-01

We use path integrals to calculate hedge parameters and efficacy of hedging in a quantum field theory generalization of the Heath, Jarrow, and Morton [Robert Jarrow, David Heath, and Andrew Morton, Econometrica 60, 77 (1992)] term structure model, which parsimoniously describes the evolution of imperfectly correlated forward rates. We calculate, within the model specification, the effectiveness of hedging over finite periods of time, and obtain the limiting case of instantaneous hedging. We use empirical estimates for the parameters of the model to show that a low-dimensional hedge portfolio is quite effective.

A hedging point strategy--balancing effluent quality, economy and robustness in the control of wastewater treatment plants.

PubMed

Ingildsen, P; Olsson, G; Yuan, Z

2002-01-01

An operational space map is an efficient tool to compare a large number of operational strategies to find an optimal choice of setpoints based on a multicriterion. Typically, such a multicriterion includes a weighted sum of cost of operation and effluent quality. Due to the relative high cost of aeration such a definition of optimality result in a relatively high fraction of the effluent total nitrogen in the form of ammonium. Such a strategy may however introduce a risk into operation because a low degree of ammonium removal leads to a low amount of nitrifiers. This in turn leads to a reduced ability to reject event disturbances, such as large variations in the ammonium load, drop in temperature, the presence of toxic/inhibitory compounds in the influent etc. Hedging is a risk minimisation tool, with the aim to "reduce one's risk of loss on a bet or speculation by compensating transactions on the other side" (The Concise Oxford Dictionary (1995)). In wastewater treatment plant operation hedging can be applied by choosing a higher level of ammonium removal to increase the amount of nitrifiers. This is a sensible way to introduce disturbance rejection ability into the multi criterion. In practice, this is done by deciding upon an internal effluent ammonium criterion. In some countries such as Germany, a separate criterion already applies to the level of ammonium in the effluent. However, in most countries the effluent criterion applies to total nitrogen only. In these cases, an internal effluent ammonium criterion should be selected in order to secure proper disturbance rejection ability.

Catchments' hedging strategy on evapotranspiration for climatic variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, W.; Zhang, C.; Li, Y.; Tang, Y.; Wang, D.; Xu, B.

2017-12-01

Hydrologic responses to climate variability and change are important for human society. Here we test the hypothesis that natural catchments utilize hedging strategies for evapotranspiration and water storage carryover with uncertain future precipitation. The hedging strategy for evapotranspiration in catchments under different levels of water availability is analytically derived from the economic perspective. It is found that there exists hedging between evapotranspiration for current and future only with a portion of water availability. Observation data sets of 160 catchments in the United States covering the period from 1983 to 2003 demonstrate the existence of hedging in catchment hydrology and validate the proposed hedging strategies. We also find that more water is allocated to carryover storage for hedging against the future evapotranspiration risk in the catchments with larger aridity indexes or with larger uncertainty in future precipitation, i.e., long-term climate and precipitation variability control the degree of hedging.

Juvenile honest food solicitation and parental investment as a life history strategy: A kin demographic selection model.

PubMed

Garay, József; Csiszár, Villő; Móri, Tamás F; Szilágyi, András; Varga, Zoltán; Számadó, Szabolcs

2018-01-01

Parent-offspring communication remains an unresolved challenge for biologist. The difficulty of the challenge comes from the fact that it is a multifaceted problem with connections to life-history evolution, parent-offspring conflict, kin selection and signalling. Previous efforts mainly focused on modelling resource allocation at the expense of the dynamic interaction during a reproductive season. Here we present a two-stage model of begging where the first stage models the interaction between nestlings and parents within a nest and the second stage models the life-history trade-offs. We show in an asexual population that honest begging results in decreased variance of collected food between siblings, which leads to mean number of surviving offspring. Thus, honest begging can be seen as a special bet-hedging against informational uncertainty, which not just decreases the variance of fitness but also increases the arithmetic mean.

Juvenile honest food solicitation and parental investment as a life history strategy: A kin demographic selection model

PubMed Central

Szilágyi, András; Varga, Zoltán

2018-01-01

Parent-offspring communication remains an unresolved challenge for biologist. The difficulty of the challenge comes from the fact that it is a multifaceted problem with connections to life-history evolution, parent-offspring conflict, kin selection and signalling. Previous efforts mainly focused on modelling resource allocation at the expense of the dynamic interaction during a reproductive season. Here we present a two-stage model of begging where the first stage models the interaction between nestlings and parents within a nest and the second stage models the life-history trade-offs. We show in an asexual population that honest begging results in decreased variance of collected food between siblings, which leads to mean number of surviving offspring. Thus, honest begging can be seen as a special bet-hedging against informational uncertainty, which not just decreases the variance of fitness but also increases the arithmetic mean. PMID:29494630

The evolution of different maternal investment strategies in two closely related desert vertebrates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ennen, Joshua R.; Lovich, Jeffrey E.; Averill-Murray, Roy C.; Yackulic, Charles B.; Agha, Mickey; Loughran, Caleb; Tennant, Laura A.; Sinervo, Barry

2017-01-01

We compared egg size phenotypes and tested several predictions from the optimal egg size (OES) and bet-hedging theories in two North American desert-dwelling sister tortoise taxa, Gopherus agassizii and G. morafkai, that inhabit different climate spaces: relatively unpredictable and more predictable climate spaces, respectively. Observed patterns in both species differed from the predictions of OES in several ways. Mean egg size increased with maternal body size in both species. Mean egg size was inversely related to clutch order in G. agassizii, a strategy more consistent with the within-generation hypothesis arising out of bet-hedging theory or a constraint in egg investment due to resource availability, and contrary to theories of density dependence, which posit that increasing hatchling competition from later season clutches should drive selection for larger eggs. We provide empirical evidence that one species, G. agassizii, employs a bet-hedging strategy that is a combination of two different bet-hedging hypotheses. Additionally, we found some evidence for G. morafkai employing a conservative bet-hedging strategy. (e.g., lack of intra- and interclutch variation in egg size relative to body size). Our novel adaptive hypothesis suggests the possibility that natural selection favors smaller offspring in late-season clutches because they experience a more benign environment or less energetically challenging environmental conditions (i.e., winter) than early clutch progeny, that emerge under harsher and more energetically challenging environmental conditions (i.e., summer). We also discuss alternative hypotheses of sexually antagonistic selection, which arise from the trade-offs of son versus daughter production that might have different optima depending on clutch order and variation in temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD) among clutches. Resolution of these hypotheses will require long-term data on fitness of sons versus daughters as a function of incubation environment, data as yet unavailable for any species with TSD.

The evolution of different maternal investment strategies in two closely related desert vertebrates.

PubMed

Ennen, Joshua R; Lovich, Jeffrey E; Averill-Murray, Roy C; Yackulic, Charles B; Agha, Mickey; Loughran, Caleb; Tennant, Laura; Sinervo, Barry

2017-05-01

We compared egg size phenotypes and tested several predictions from the optimal egg size (OES) and bet-hedging theories in two North American desert-dwelling sister tortoise taxa, Gopherus agassizii and G. morafkai , that inhabit different climate spaces: relatively unpredictable and more predictable climate spaces, respectively. Observed patterns in both species differed from the predictions of OES in several ways. Mean egg size increased with maternal body size in both species. Mean egg size was inversely related to clutch order in G. agassizii , a strategy more consistent with the within-generation hypothesis arising out of bet-hedging theory or a constraint in egg investment due to resource availability, and contrary to theories of density dependence, which posit that increasing hatchling competition from later season clutches should drive selection for larger eggs. We provide empirical evidence that one species, G. agassizii , employs a bet-hedging strategy that is a combination of two different bet-hedging hypotheses. Additionally, we found some evidence for G. morafkai employing a conservative bet-hedging strategy. (e.g., lack of intra- and interclutch variation in egg size relative to body size). Our novel adaptive hypothesis suggests the possibility that natural selection favors smaller offspring in late-season clutches because they experience a more benign environment or less energetically challenging environmental conditions (i.e., winter) than early clutch progeny, that emerge under harsher and more energetically challenging environmental conditions (i.e., summer). We also discuss alternative hypotheses of sexually antagonistic selection, which arise from the trade-offs of son versus daughter production that might have different optima depending on clutch order and variation in temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD) among clutches. Resolution of these hypotheses will require long-term data on fitness of sons versus daughters as a function of incubation environment, data as yet unavailable for any species with TSD.

Landscape-moderated bird nest predation in hedges and forest edges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ludwig, Martin; Schlinkert, Hella; Holzschuh, Andrea; Fischer, Christina; Scherber, Christoph; Trnka, Alfréd; Tscharntke, Teja; Batáry, Péter

2012-11-01

Landscape-scale agricultural intensification has caused severe declines in biodiversity. Hedges and forest remnants may mitigate biodiversity loss by enhancing landscape heterogeneity and providing habitat to a wide range of species, including birds. However, nest predation, the major cause of reproductive failure of birds, has been shown to be higher in forest edges than in forest interiors. Little is known about how spatial arrangement (configuration) of hedges affects the avian nest predation. We performed an experiment with artificial ground and elevated nests (resembling yellowhammer and whitethroat nests) baited with quail and plasticine eggs. Nests were placed in three habitat types with different degrees of isolation from forests: forest edges, hedges connected to forests and hedges isolated from forests. Nest predation was highest in forest edges, lowest in hedges connected to forests and intermediate in isolated hedges. In the early breeding season, we found similar nest predation on ground and elevated nests, but in the late breeding season nest predation was higher on ground nests than on elevated nests. Small mammals were the main predators of ground nests and appeared to be responsible for the increase in predation from early to late breeding season, whereas the elevated nests were mainly depredated by small birds and small mammals. High predation pressure at forest edges was probably caused by both forest and open-landscape predators. The influence of forest predators may be lower at hedges, leading to lower predation pressure than in forest edges. Higher predation pressure in isolated than connected hedges might be an effect of concentration of predators in these isolated habitats. We conclude that landscape configuration of hedges is important in nest predation, with connected hedges allowing higher survival than isolated hedges and forest edges.

Age-related variation and predictors of long-term quality of life in germ cell tumor survivors.

PubMed

Hartung, Tim J; Mehnert, Anja; Friedrich, Michael; Hartmann, Michael; Vehling, Sigrun; Bokemeyer, Carsten; Oechsle, Karin

2016-02-01

To compare long-term health-related quality of life (QoL) in germ cell tumor survivors (GCTS) and age-adjusted men and to identify predictors of variation in long-term QoL in GCTS. We used the Short-Form Health Survey to measure QoL in a cross-sectional sample of 164 survivors of germ cell tumors from Hamburg, Germany. QoL was compared with age-adjusted German norm data. Sociodemographic and medical data from questionnaires and medical records were used to find predictors of QoL. On average, patients were 44.4 years old (standard deviation = 9.6 y) and average time since first germ cell tumor diagnosis was 11.6 years (standard deviation = 7.3 y). We found significantly lower mental component scores in GCTS when compared with norm data (Hedges g =-0.44, P<0.001). An exploratory analysis by age group showed the largest difference in mental QoL in survivors aged 31 to 40 years (Hedges g =-0.67). Linear regression analysis revealed age (β =-0.46, P<0.001), marital status (β = 0.20, P = 0.024), advanced secondary qualifications (β =-0.25, P = 0.001), time since diagnosis (β = 0.17, P = 0.031), and tumor stage (β = 0.17, P = 0.024) as statistically significant predictors of the physical component score, accounting for 22% of the variance. Statistically significant predictors of the mental component score were higher secondary qualifications (β = 0.17, P = 0.033) and unemployment (β =-0.21, P = 0.009), accounting for 6% of the variance. Survivors of germ cell tumors can expect an overall long-term QoL similar to that of other men of their age. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A copula-multifractal volatility hedging model for CSI 300 index futures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Yu; Wang, Yudong; Huang, Dengshi

2011-11-01

In this paper, we propose a new hedging model combining the newly introduced multifractal volatility (MFV) model and the dynamic copula functions. Using high-frequency intraday quotes of the spot Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SSEC), spot China Securities Index 300 (CSI 300), and CSI 300 index futures, we compare the direct and cross hedging effectiveness of the copula-MFV model with several popular copula-GARCH models. The main empirical results show that the proposed copula-MFV model obtains better hedging effectiveness than the copula-GARCH-type models in general. Furthermore, the hedge operating strategy based MFV hedging model involves fewer transaction costs than those based on the GARCH-type models. The finding of this paper indicates that multifractal analysis may offer a new way of quantitative hedging model design using financial futures.

A Mathematical Model of the Evolution of Individual Differences in Developmental Plasticity Arising through Parental Bet-Hedging

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Frankenhuis, Willem E.; Panchanathan, Karthik; Belsky, Jay

2016-01-01

Children vary in the extent to which their development is shaped by particular experiences (e.g. maltreatment, social support). This variation raises a question: Is there no single level of plasticity that maximizes biological fitness? One influential hypothesis states that when different levels of plasticity are optimal in different environmental…

Prolactin and hostility in hospitalised patients and healthy women: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Barry, J A; Moran, E; Thomas, M; Hardiman, P J

2015-01-01

The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to assess any difference in the self-ratings of hostility in mentally healthy women with different levels of prolactin (PRL). Electronic databases (PubMed, MEDLINE, EMBASE and the Cochrane Library) were searched up to 2nd July 2012 for published literature comparing hostility levels in women with different levels of PRL. Keyword pairs ('prolactin' and 'aggression', 'prolactin' and 'hostil*', 'prolactin' and 'anger', and 'prolactin' and 'angry') were entered simultaneously. From 1065 resulting titles, and one unpublished study, 214 articles underwent full-text review by authors JB and EM. Studies were selected based on clinical relevance. Eight comparative studies consisting of 242 female patients with high PRL levels, 207 female patients with normal PRL levels and 127 healthy controls with normal PRL levels were included. Data were analysed using the inverse variance method with a random-effects model. Analysis revealed significantly higher hostility in patients with high PRL compared with that in healthy control women (Z = 1.94, p < 0.05; Hedges' g = 0.72; 95% confidence interval [CI]: -0.01-1.45), significantly higher hostility in patient controls compared with that in healthy controls (Z = 1.94, p < 0.05; Hedges' g = 0.47; 95% CI: 0.00-0.94) and non-significantly higher hostility levels in patients with high PRL compared with that in patients with normal PRL levels (Z = 1.45, p < 0.15; Hedges' g = 0.38; 95% CI: -0.13-0.89). In this meta-analysis, hostility appears to be accounted for partly by PRL levels and also partly by patient status, perhaps due to the stress of being a patient. Methodological considerations and implications for patient care are discussed.

18 CFR 367.2450 - Account 245, Derivative instrument liabilities-Hedges

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... derivative instrument liabilities designated by the service company as cash flow or fair value hedges. (b) A... cash flow hedge in this account, with a concurrent charge to account 219, Accumulated other... portion of the cash flow hedge must be charged to the same income or expense account that will be used...

18 CFR 367.2450 - Account 245, Derivative instrument liabilities-Hedges

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... derivative instrument liabilities designated by the service company as cash flow or fair value hedges. (b) A... cash flow hedge in this account, with a concurrent charge to account 219, Accumulated other... portion of the cash flow hedge must be charged to the same income or expense account that will be used...

18 CFR 367.2450 - Account 245, Derivative instrument liabilities-Hedges

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... derivative instrument liabilities designated by the service company as cash flow or fair value hedges. (b) A... cash flow hedge in this account, with a concurrent charge to account 219, Accumulated other... portion of the cash flow hedge must be charged to the same income or expense account that will be used...

18 CFR 367.2450 - Account 245, Derivative instrument liabilities-Hedges

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... derivative instrument liabilities designated by the service company as cash flow or fair value hedges. (b) A... cash flow hedge in this account, with a concurrent charge to account 219, Accumulated other... portion of the cash flow hedge must be charged to the same income or expense account that will be used...

18 CFR 367.2450 - Account 245, Derivative instrument liabilities-Hedges

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... derivative instrument liabilities designated by the service company as cash flow or fair value hedges. (b) A... cash flow hedge in this account, with a concurrent charge to account 219, Accumulated other... portion of the cash flow hedge must be charged to the same income or expense account that will be used...

Effectiveness of narrow grass hedges in reducing atrazine runoff under different slope gradient conditions.

PubMed

Wang, Qinghai; Li, Cui; Chen, Chao; Chen, Jie; Zheng, Ruilun; Que, Xiaoe

2018-03-01

Atrazine is frequently detected in surface runoff and poses a potential threat to the environment. Grass hedges may minimize runoff loss of atrazine from crop fields. Therefore, the effectiveness of two grass hedges (Melilotus albus and Pennisetum alopecuroides) in controlling atrazine runoff was investigated using simulated rainfall on lands at different slope gradients (15 and 20%) in northern China. Results showed that a storm (40 mm in 1 h), occurring 4 h after atrazine application, caused a loss of 3% of the applied amount. Atrazine loss under 20% slope was significantly greater than that under 15% slope in control plots. Atrazine exports associated with the water fraction accounted for the majority of total loss. Pennisetum hedges were more efficient in controlling atrazine loss with runoff compared to Melilotus hedges. No significant difference in the capacity of grass hedges to reduce atrazine exports was observed between 15 and 20% slopes. These findings suggest grass hedges are effective in minimizing atrazine runoff in northern China, and Pennisetum hedges should be preferentially used on sloping croplands in similar climatic regions.

Modes of response to environmental change and the elusive empirical evidence for bet hedging

PubMed Central

Simons, Andrew M.

2011-01-01

Uncertainty is a problem not only in human decision-making, but is a prevalent quality of natural environments and thus requires evolutionary response. Unpredictable natural selection is expected to result in the evolution of bet-hedging strategies, which are adaptations to long-term fluctuating selection. Despite a recent surge of interest in bet hedging, its study remains mired in conceptual and practical difficulties, compounded by confusion over what constitutes evidence for its existence. Here, I attempt to resolve misunderstandings about bet hedging and its relationship with other modes of response to environmental change, identify the challenges inherent to its study and assess the state of existing empirical evidence. The variety and distribution of plausible bet-hedging traits found across 16 phyla in over 100 studies suggest their ubiquity. Thus, bet hedging should be considered a specific mode of response to environmental change. However, the distribution of bet-hedging studies across evidence categories—defined according to potential strength—is heavily skewed towards weaker categories, underscoring the need for direct appraisals of the adaptive significance of putative bet-hedging traits in nature. PMID:21411456

A Monthly Water-Balance Model through a Two-Stage Partitioning of Precipitation Quantified by Budyko Equation and Hedging Rule

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kheimi, M.; Wang, D.

2017-12-01

Water operating in reservoir system is similar to natural catchment systems in water regulations. The most contributing role in both systems is found to be mitigating of available water deficits from excessive and keeping it away from prolonged droughts. In this paper, Bodyko equation and hedging rule are presented by two stage portioning monthly water balance model. The first stage is the partitioning of precipitation to evapotranspiration (E) plus future storage (S1) and runoff (Q); the second stage is using hedging rule where evapotranspiration and future storage to be recognized by a tradeoff between evapotranspiration and future water storage. The model introduces a linear two point hedging parameters: starting water availability (y1) and ending of water availability (y2).The calibration of the model is based on five parameters: three derived from Budyko equation (S0, ξ, and Yp) and two from hedging rule (y1 and y2).The catchment climate zone along with its physical properties have an effect on the degree of hedging. The y1 and y2 parameters are indicators of the amount of hedging in dry and wet zones. The span between the starting point (y1) and ending point (y2) of hedging indicate there is hedging against future evapotranspiration shortage. Observation of 187 catchments was examined using this model concept for the period of 21 years starting from 1983 to 2003. After calibration and validation using a genetic algorithm it shows that hedging effect in catchment against future evapotranspiration shortages exists with an abundance of hedging effect in dry areas more than wet areas.

Rationale for hedging initiatives: Empirical evidence from the energy industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dhanarajata, Srirajata

Theory offers different rationales for hedging including (i) financial distress and bankruptcy cost, (ii) capacity to capture attractive investment opportunities, (iii) information asymmetry, (iv) economy of scale, (v) substitution for hedging, (vi) managerial risk aversion, and (vii) convexity of tax schedule. The purpose of this dissertation is to empirically test the explanatory power of the first five theoretical rationales on hedging done by oil and gas exploration and production (E&P) companies. The level of hedging is measured by the percentage of production effectively hedged, calculated based on the concept of delta and delta-gamma hedging. I employ Tobit regression, principal components, and panel data analysis on dependent and raw independent variables. Tobit regression is applied due to the fact that the dependent variable used in the analysis is non-negative. Principal component analysis helps to reduce the dimension of explanatory variables while panel data analysis combines/pools the data that is a combination of time-series and cross-sectional. Based on the empirical results, leverage level is consistently found to be a significant factor on hedging activities, either due to an attempt to avoid financial distress by the firm, or an attempt to control agency cost by debtholders, or both. The effect of capital expenditures and discretionary cash flows are both indeterminable due possibly to a potential mismatch in timing of realized cash flow items and hedging decision. Firm size is found to be positively related to hedging supporting economy of scale hypothesis, which is introduced in past literature, as well as the argument that large firm usually are more sophisticated and should be more willing and more comfortable to use hedge instruments than smaller firms.

Arbitrage opportunities and their implications to derivative hedging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panayides, Stephanos

2006-02-01

We explore the role that random arbitrage opportunities play in hedging financial derivatives. We extend the asymptotic pricing theory presented by Fedotov and Panayides [Stochastic arbitrage return and its implication for option pricing, Physica A 345 (2005) 207-217] for the case of hedging a derivative when arbitrage opportunities are present in the market. We restrict ourselves to finding hedging confidence intervals that can be adapted to the amount of arbitrage risk an investor will permit to be exposed to. The resulting hedging bands are independent of the detailed statistical characteristics of the arbitrage opportunities.

Hedging to save face: a linguistic analysis of written comments on in-training evaluation reports.

PubMed

Ginsburg, Shiphra; van der Vleuten, Cees; Eva, Kevin W; Lingard, Lorelei

2016-03-01

Written comments on residents' evaluations can be useful, yet the literature suggests that the language used by assessors is often vague and indirect. The branch of linguistics called pragmatics argues that much of our day to day language is not meant to be interpreted literally. Within pragmatics, the theory of 'politeness' suggests that non-literal language and other strategies are employed in order to 'save face'. We conducted a rigorous, in-depth analysis of a set of written in-training evaluation report (ITER) comments using Brown and Levinson's influential theory of 'politeness' to shed light on the phenomenon of vague language use in assessment. We coded text from 637 comment boxes from first year residents in internal medicine at one institution according to politeness theory. Non-literal language use was common and 'hedging', a key politeness strategy, was pervasive in comments about both high and low rated residents, suggesting that faculty may be working to 'save face' for themselves and their residents. Hedging and other politeness strategies are considered essential to smooth social functioning; their prevalence in our ITERs may reflect the difficult social context in which written assessments occur. This research raises questions regarding the 'optimal' construction of written comments by faculty.

Tree Wave Migration Across an Elevation Gradient in the Altai Mountains, Siberia

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kharuk, Viacheslav I.; Im, Sergei T.; Dvinskaya, Maria L.; Ranson, Kenneth J.; Petrov, Il'ya

2017-01-01

The phenomenon of tree waves (hedges and ribbons) formation within the alpine ecotone in Altai Mountains and its response to observed air temperature increase was considered. At the upper limit of tree growth Siberian pine (Pinus sibirica) forms hedges on windward slopes and ribbons on the leeward ones. Hedges were formed by prevailing winds and oriented along winds direction. Ribbons were formed by snow blowing and accumulating on the leeward slope and perpendicular to the prevailing winds, as well as to the elevation gradient. Hedges were always linked with microtopography features, whereas ribbons were not. Trees are migrating upward by waves and new ribbons and hedges are forming at or near tree line, whereas at lower elevations ribbons and hedges are being transformed into closed forests. 19 Time series of high-resolution satellite scenes (from 1968 to 2010) indicated an upslope shift in the position ribbons averaged 15526 m (or 3.7 m yr -1) and crown closure increased (about 3590). The hedges advance was limited by poor regeneration establishment and was negligible. Regeneration within the ribbon zone was approximately 2.5 times (5060 vs 2120 ha -1) higher then within the hedges zone. During the last four decades, Siberian pine in both hedges and ribbons strongly increased its growth increment and recent tree growth rate for 50 year old trees was about twice higher than recorded for similarly aged trees at the beginning of the 20th century. Hedges and ribbons are phenomena that are widespread within the southern and northern Siberian Mountains

Dynamically Hedging Oil and Currency Futures Using Receding Horizontal Control and Stochastic Programming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cottrell, Paul Edward

There is a lack of research in the area of hedging future contracts, especially in illiquid or very volatile market conditions. It is important to understand the volatility of the oil and currency markets because reduced fluctuations in these markets could lead to better hedging performance. This study compared different hedging methods by using a hedging error metric, supplementing the Receding Horizontal Control and Stochastic Programming (RHCSP) method by utilizing the London Interbank Offered Rate with the Levy process. The RHCSP hedging method was investigated to determine if improved hedging error was accomplished compared to the Black-Scholes, Leland, and Whalley and Wilmott methods when applied on simulated, oil, and currency futures markets. A modified RHCSP method was also investigated to determine if this method could significantly reduce hedging error under extreme market illiquidity conditions when applied on simulated, oil, and currency futures markets. This quantitative study used chaos theory and emergence for its theoretical foundation. An experimental research method was utilized for this study with a sample size of 506 hedging errors pertaining to historical and simulation data. The historical data were from January 1, 2005 through December 31, 2012. The modified RHCSP method was found to significantly reduce hedging error for the oil and currency market futures by the use of a 2-way ANOVA with a t test and post hoc Tukey test. This study promotes positive social change by identifying better risk controls for investment portfolios and illustrating how to benefit from high volatility in markets. Economists, professional investment managers, and independent investors could benefit from the findings of this study.

Risk modelling in portfolio optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lam, W. H.; Jaaman, Saiful Hafizah Hj.; Isa, Zaidi

2013-09-01

Risk management is very important in portfolio optimization. The mean-variance model has been used in portfolio optimization to minimize the investment risk. The objective of the mean-variance model is to minimize the portfolio risk and achieve the target rate of return. Variance is used as risk measure in the mean-variance model. The purpose of this study is to compare the portfolio composition as well as performance between the optimal portfolio of mean-variance model and equally weighted portfolio. Equally weighted portfolio means the proportions that are invested in each asset are equal. The results show that the portfolio composition of the mean-variance optimal portfolio and equally weighted portfolio are different. Besides that, the mean-variance optimal portfolio gives better performance because it gives higher performance ratio than the equally weighted portfolio.

Wavelet multiscale analysis for Hedge Funds: Scaling and strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Conlon, T.; Crane, M.; Ruskin, H. J.

2008-09-01

The wide acceptance of Hedge Funds by Institutional Investors and Pension Funds has led to an explosive growth in assets under management. These investors are drawn to Hedge Funds due to the seemingly low correlation with traditional investments and the attractive returns. The correlations and market risk (the Beta in the Capital Asset Pricing Model) of Hedge Funds are generally calculated using monthly returns data, which may produce misleading results as Hedge Funds often hold illiquid exchange-traded securities or difficult to price over-the-counter securities. In this paper, the Maximum Overlap Discrete Wavelet Transform (MODWT) is applied to measure the scaling properties of Hedge Fund correlation and market risk with respect to the S&P 500. It is found that the level of correlation and market risk varies greatly according to the strategy studied and the time scale examined. Finally, the effects of scaling properties on the risk profile of a portfolio made up of Hedge Funds is studied using correlation matrices calculated over different time horizons.

Hedging Medical Spending Growth: An Adaptive Expectations Approach

PubMed Central

Lieberthal, Robert D.

2016-01-01

Long-term health insurance provides consumers with protection against persistent, negative health shocks. While the stochastic rise in medical spending growth may make some health risks harder to insure, financial assets could act as a hedge for medical spending growth risk. The purpose of this research was to determine whether such hedges exist. The results of this study were two-fold. First, the asset classes with the strongest statistical evidence as hedges were bonds, not stocks. Second, any strategy to hedge medical spending growth involved shorting assets i.e. betting against the bond or stock market. Health insurers writing long-term contracts should combine the use of hedges in the bond market with of portfolio diversification, and may benefit from health policies to moderate the uncertainty of medical spending growth. PMID:27635415

Hedging Medical Spending Growth: An Adaptive Expectations Approach.

PubMed

Lieberthal, Robert D

2016-08-01

Long-term health insurance provides consumers with protection against persistent, negative health shocks. While the stochastic rise in medical spending growth may make some health risks harder to insure, financial assets could act as a hedge for medical spending growth risk. The purpose of this research was to determine whether such hedges exist. The results of this study were two-fold. First, the asset classes with the strongest statistical evidence as hedges were bonds, not stocks. Second, any strategy to hedge medical spending growth involved shorting assets i.e. betting against the bond or stock market. Health insurers writing long-term contracts should combine the use of hedges in the bond market with of portfolio diversification, and may benefit from health policies to moderate the uncertainty of medical spending growth.

17 CFR 240.11a1-3(T) - Bona fide hedge transactions in certain securities.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 3 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Bona fide hedge transactions in certain securities. 240.11a1-3(T) Section 240.11a1-3(T) Commodity and Securities Exchanges... (rule 11a-1) § 240.11a1-3(T) Bona fide hedge transactions in certain securities. A bona fide hedge...

17 CFR 240.11a1-3(T) - Bona fide hedge transactions in certain securities.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 3 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Bona fide hedge transactions in certain securities. 240.11a1-3(T) Section 240.11a1-3(T) Commodity and Securities Exchanges... (rule 11a-1) § 240.11a1-3(T) Bona fide hedge transactions in certain securities. A bona fide hedge...

Tree Waves Upward Migration in the Altai Mountains, Siberia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kharuk, Viacheslav; Im, Sergei; Dvinskaya, Maria; Petrov, Il'ya

2017-04-01

The phenomenon of "tree waves" (hedges and ribbons) formation within the alpine ecotone in Altai Mountains and its response to observed air temperature increase was considered. At the upper limit of tree growth Siberian pine (Pinus sibirica) forms hedges on windward slopes and ribbons on the leeward ones. Hedges were formed by prevailing winds and oriented along winds direction. Ribbons were formed by snow blowing and accumulating on the leeward slope and perpendicular to the prevailing winds, as well as to the elevation gradient. Hedges were always linked with microtopography features, whereas ribbons were not. Trees are migrating upward by waves and new ribbons and hedges are forming at or near tree line, whereas at lower elevations ribbons and hedges are being transformed into closed forests. Time series of high-resolution satellite scenes (from 1968 to 2010) indicated an upslope shift in the position ribbons averaged 155±26 m (or 3.7 m yr -1) and crown closure increased (about 35-90%). The hedges advance was limited by poor regeneration establishment and was negligible. Regeneration within the "ribbon zone" was approximately 2.5 times (5060 vs 2120 ha -1) higher then within the "hedges zone". During the last four decades, Siberian pine in both hedges and ribbons strongly increased its growth increment and recent tree growth rate for 50 year old trees was about twice higher than recorded for similarly aged trees at the beginning of the 20th century. Growth increment increase was strongly correlated with CO2 concentration in the ambient air (R2 = 0.9), which may indicated CO2- fertilization. Hedges and ribbons are phenomena that are widespread within the southern and northern Siberian Mountains

Adaptive control system having hedge unit and related apparatus and methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Eric Norman (Inventor); Calise, Anthony J. (Inventor)

2003-01-01

The invention includes an adaptive control system used to control a plant. The adaptive control system includes a hedge unit that receives at least one control signal and a plant state signal. The hedge unit generates a hedge signal based on the control signal, the plant state signal, and a hedge model including a first model having one or more characteristics to which the adaptive control system is not to adapt, and a second model not having the characteristic(s) to which the adaptive control system is not to adapt. The hedge signal is used in the adaptive control system to remove the effect of the characteristic from a signal supplied to an adaptation law unit of the adaptive control system so that the adaptive control system does not adapt to the characteristic in controlling the plant.

Should the Department of Defense Hedge Oil Prices in Order to Save Money

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-03-01

NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA MBA PROFESSIONAL REPORT Should the Department of Defense Hedge Oil Prices In Order...DATES COVERED MBA Professional Report 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Should the Department of Defense Hedge Oil Prices in Order to Save Money? 6. James...the DoD. 15. NUMBER OF PAGES 59 14. SUBJECT TERMS Futures, Options, Swaps, Hedging . Oil Prices, DoD, Procurement 16. PRICE CODE

Forecasting volatility in gold returns under the GARCH, IGARCH and FIGARCH frameworks: New evidence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bentes, Sonia R.

2015-11-01

This study employs three volatility models of the GARCH family to examine the volatility behavior of gold returns. Much of the literature on this topic suggests that gold plays a fundamental role as a hedge and safe haven against adverse market conditions, which is particularly relevant in periods of high volatility. This makes understanding gold volatility important for a number of theoretical and empirical applications, namely investment valuation, portfolio selection, risk management, monetary policy-making, futures and option pricing, hedging strategies and value-at-risk (VaR) policies (e.g. Baur and Lucey (2010)). We use daily data from August 2, 1976 to February 6, 2015 and divide the full sample into two periods: the in-sample period (August 2, 1976-October 24, 2008) is used to estimate model coefficients, while the out-of-sample period (October 27, 2008-February 6, 2015) is for forecasting purposes. Specifically, we employ the GARCH(1,1), IGARCH(1,1) and FIGARCH(1, d,1) specifications. The results show that the FIGARCH(1, d,1) is the best model to capture linear dependence in the conditional variance of the gold returns as given by the information criteria. It is also found to be the best model to forecast the volatility of gold returns.

1. General view of Hedges Creek trestle at m.p. 37.8, ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

1. General view of Hedges Creek trestle at m.p. 37.8, view looking southeast. - Oregon Electric Railroad, Hedges Creek Trestle, Garden Home to Wilsonville Segment, Milepost 37.8, Garden Home, Washington County, OR

3. Detail view of Hedges Creek trestle at m.p. 37.8, ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

3. Detail view of Hedges Creek trestle at m.p. 37.8, view looking west - Oregon Electric Railroad, Hedges Creek Trestle, Garden Home to Wilsonville Segment, Milepost 37.8, Garden Home, Washington County, OR

Portfolio optimization with mean-variance model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoe, Lam Weng; Siew, Lam Weng

2016-06-01

Investors wish to achieve the target rate of return at the minimum level of risk in their investment. Portfolio optimization is an investment strategy that can be used to minimize the portfolio risk and can achieve the target rate of return. The mean-variance model has been proposed in portfolio optimization. The mean-variance model is an optimization model that aims to minimize the portfolio risk which is the portfolio variance. The objective of this study is to construct the optimal portfolio using the mean-variance model. The data of this study consists of weekly returns of 20 component stocks of FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBMKLCI). The results of this study show that the portfolio composition of the stocks is different. Moreover, investors can get the return at minimum level of risk with the constructed optimal mean-variance portfolio.

77 FR 54862 - Integrated Hedging Transactions of Qualifying Debt

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-09-06

... Integrated Hedging Transactions of Qualifying Debt AGENCY: Internal Revenue Service (IRS), Treasury. ACTION... certain integrated transactions that involve a foreign currency denominated debt instrument and multiple... foreign currency denominated debt instrument and multiple associated hedging transactions. The text of...

Portfolio optimization with skewness and kurtosis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lam, Weng Hoe; Jaaman, Saiful Hafizah Hj.; Isa, Zaidi

2013-04-01

Mean and variance of return distributions are two important parameters of the mean-variance model in portfolio optimization. However, the mean-variance model will become inadequate if the returns of assets are not normally distributed. Therefore, higher moments such as skewness and kurtosis cannot be ignored. Risk averse investors prefer portfolios with high skewness and low kurtosis so that the probability of getting negative rates of return will be reduced. The objective of this study is to compare the portfolio compositions as well as performances between the mean-variance model and mean-variance-skewness-kurtosis model by using the polynomial goal programming approach. The results show that the incorporation of skewness and kurtosis will change the optimal portfolio compositions. The mean-variance-skewness-kurtosis model outperforms the mean-variance model because the mean-variance-skewness-kurtosis model takes skewness and kurtosis into consideration. Therefore, the mean-variance-skewness-kurtosis model is more appropriate for the investors of Malaysia in portfolio optimization.

Risk-Hedged Approach for Re-Routing Air Traffic Under Weather Uncertainty

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sadovsky, Alexander V.; Bilimoria, Karl D.

2016-01-01

This presentation corresponds to: our paper explores a new risk-hedged approach for re-routing air traffic around forecast convective weather. In this work, flying through a more likely weather instantiation is considered to pose a higher level of risk. Current operational practice strategically plans re-routes to avoid only the most likely (highest risk) weather instantiation, and then tactically makes any necessary adjustments as the weather evolves. The risk-hedged approach strategically plans re-routes by minimizing the risk-adjusted path length, incorporating multiple possible weather instantiations with associated likelihoods (risks). The resulting model is transparent and is readily analyzed for realism and treated with well-understood shortest-path algorithms. Risk-hedged re-routes are computed for some example weather instantiations. The main result is that in some scenarios, relative to an operational-practice proxy solution, the risk-hedged solution provides the benefits of lower risk as well as shorter path length. In other scenarios, the benefits of the risk-hedged solution are ambiguous, because the solution is characterized by a tradeoff between risk and path length. The risk-hedged solution can be executed in those scenarios where it provides a clear benefit over current operational practice.

Strategies for Minimizing Monetary Loss in the Department of Defense Budget through Use of Financial Derivatives

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-03-01

purpose of this research was to examine whether it would be in the best interest of the Department of Defense to consider using currency hedging as a...the aforementioned hedges during the same period of time. Using an ex post facto analysis with the gathered data, the results show that hedging with...futures or call options on the USD/EURO would have provided a tremendous overall savings to the DOD. Currently the DOD does not hedge its budget

Hedging becomes popular in electricity sector

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

1997-07-01

Electricity price hedging is getting popular among many energy companies due to the onslaught of deregulation in the electricity sector. Price hedging most often is used to manage power supply costs or to engage in arbitrage opportunities and is becoming a major ingredient in companies` risk management strategies.

Efficacy of Pregabalin in Acute Postoperative Pain Under Different Surgical Categories

PubMed Central

Lam, David M.H.; Choi, Siu-Wai; Wong, Stanley S.C.; Irwin, Michael G.; Cheung, Chi-Wai

2015-01-01

Abstract The efficacy of pregabalin in acute postsurgical pain has been demonstrated in numerous studies; however, the analgesic efficacy and adverse effects of using pregabalin in various surgical procedures remain uncertain. We aim to assess the postsurgical analgesic efficacy and adverse events after pregabalin administration under different surgical categories using a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials. A search of the literature was performed between August 2014 to April 2015, using PubMed, Ovid via EMBASE, Google Scholar, and ClinicalTrials.gov with no limitation on publication year or language. Studies considered for inclusion were randomized controlled trials, reporting on relevant outcomes (2-, 24-hour pain scores, or 24 hour morphine-equivalent consumption) with treatment with perioperative pregabalin. Seventy-four studies were included. Pregabalin reduced pain scores at 2 hours in all categories: cardiothoracic (Hedge's g and 95%CI, −0.442 [−0.752 to −0.132], P = 0.005), ENT (Hedge g and 95%CI, −0.684 [−1.051 to −0.316], P < 0.0001), gynecologic (Hedge g, 95%CI, −0.792 [−1.235 to −0.350], P < 0.0001), laparoscopic cholecystectomy (Hedge g, 95%CI, –0.600 [–0.989 to –0.210], P = 0.003), orthopedic (Hedge g, 95%CI, −0.507 [−0.812 to −0.202], P = 0.001), spine (Hedge g, 95%CI, −0.972 [−1.537 to −0.407], P = 0.001), and miscellaneous procedures (Hedge g, 95%CI, −1.976 [−2.654 to −1.297], P < 0.0001). Pregabalin reduced 24-hour morphine consumption in gynecologic (Hedge g, 95%CI, −1.085 [−1.582 to −0.441], P = 0.001), laparoscopic cholecystectomy (Hedge g, 95%CI, –0.886 [–1.652 to –0.120], P = 0.023), orthopedic (Hedge g, 95%CI, −0.720 [−1.118 to −0.323], P < 0.0001), spine (Hedge g, 95%CI, −1.016 [−1.732 to −0.300], P = 0.005), and miscellaneous procedures (Hedge g, 95%CI, −1.329 [−2.286 to −0.372], P = 0.006). Pregabalin resulted in significant sedation in all surgical categories except ENT, laparoscopic cholecystectomy, and gynecologic procedures. Postoperative nausea and vomiting was only significant after pregabalin in miscellaneous procedures. Analgesic effects and incidence of adverse effects of using pregabalin are not equal in different surgical categories. PMID:26579802

Robust optimization-based DC optimal power flow for managing wind generation uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boonchuay, Chanwit; Tomsovic, Kevin; Li, Fangxing; Ongsakul, Weerakorn

2012-11-01

Integrating wind generation into the wider grid causes a number of challenges to traditional power system operation. Given the relatively large wind forecast errors, congestion management tools based on optimal power flow (OPF) need to be improved. In this paper, a robust optimization (RO)-based DCOPF is proposed to determine the optimal generation dispatch and locational marginal prices (LMPs) for a day-ahead competitive electricity market considering the risk of dispatch cost variation. The basic concept is to use the dispatch to hedge against the possibility of reduced or increased wind generation. The proposed RO-based DCOPF is compared with a stochastic non-linear programming (SNP) approach on a modified PJM 5-bus system. Primary test results show that the proposed DCOPF model can provide lower dispatch cost than the SNP approach.

"Denuncio pero lo lamento...": Attitudinal Hedges and the Pragmatics of the Explicitly Performative Verb in Spanish

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stewart, Miranda

2013-01-01

on hedging in a variety of languages (e.g. Myers 1989; Markannen & Schroder 1997; Hyland 2005), primarily concentrating on its use in academic writing and identifying cultural differences in the propensity to hedge between different communities of practice. Furthermore,…

78 FR 78878 - Comparability Determination for the European Union: Certain Transaction-Level Requirements

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-12-27

... is helpful to note certain terminology used in EMIR: Financial counterparties (``FCs''), Article 2(8... hedge funds. Non-financial counterparties (``NFCs''), Article 2(9) EMIR: all types of counterparties... hedging definition both portfolio and macro hedging are allowed. \\19\\ See EMIR Article 10 and RTS Article...

Optimal design criteria - prediction vs. parameter estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Waldl, Helmut

2014-05-01

G-optimality is a popular design criterion for optimal prediction, it tries to minimize the kriging variance over the whole design region. A G-optimal design minimizes the maximum variance of all predicted values. If we use kriging methods for prediction it is self-evident to use the kriging variance as a measure of uncertainty for the estimates. Though the computation of the kriging variance and even more the computation of the empirical kriging variance is computationally very costly and finding the maximum kriging variance in high-dimensional regions can be time demanding such that we cannot really find the G-optimal design with nowadays available computer equipment in practice. We cannot always avoid this problem by using space-filling designs because small designs that minimize the empirical kriging variance are often non-space-filling. D-optimality is the design criterion related to parameter estimation. A D-optimal design maximizes the determinant of the information matrix of the estimates. D-optimality in terms of trend parameter estimation and D-optimality in terms of covariance parameter estimation yield basically different designs. The Pareto frontier of these two competing determinant criteria corresponds with designs that perform well under both criteria. Under certain conditions searching the G-optimal design on the above Pareto frontier yields almost as good results as searching the G-optimal design in the whole design region. In doing so the maximum of the empirical kriging variance has to be computed only a few times though. The method is demonstrated by means of a computer simulation experiment based on data provided by the Belgian institute Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical Models (MUMM) that describe the evolution of inorganic and organic carbon and nutrients, phytoplankton, bacteria and zooplankton in the Southern Bight of the North Sea.

26 CFR 1.148-4A - Yield on an issue of bonds.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... are determined as of the date the parties enter into the contract. (ii) Anticipatory hedges—(A) In... close (terminate) an anticipatory hedge of that bond do not prevent the hedge from satisfying the... received by the issuer in connection with the issuance of the hedged bonds to terminate an anticipatory...

26 CFR 1.148-4A - Yield on an issue of bonds.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... are determined as of the date the parties enter into the contract. (ii) Anticipatory hedges—(A) In... close (terminate) an anticipatory hedge of that bond do not prevent the hedge from satisfying the... received by the issuer in connection with the issuance of the hedged bonds to terminate an anticipatory...

26 CFR 1.148-4A - Yield on an issue of bonds.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... are determined as of the date the parties enter into the contract. (ii) Anticipatory hedges—(A) In... close (terminate) an anticipatory hedge of that bond do not prevent the hedge from satisfying the... received by the issuer in connection with the issuance of the hedged bonds to terminate an anticipatory...

26 CFR 1.148-4A - Yield on an issue of bonds.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... are determined as of the date the parties enter into the contract. (ii) Anticipatory hedges—(A) In... close (terminate) an anticipatory hedge of that bond do not prevent the hedge from satisfying the... received by the issuer in connection with the issuance of the hedged bonds to terminate an anticipatory...

26 CFR 1.148-4A - Yield on an issue of bonds.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... are determined as of the date the parties enter into the contract. (ii) Anticipatory hedges—(A) In... close (terminate) an anticipatory hedge of that bond do not prevent the hedge from satisfying the... received by the issuer in connection with the issuance of the hedged bonds to terminate an anticipatory...

17 CFR 1.48 - Requirements for classification of sales or purchases for future delivery as bona fide hedging of...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... classification of sales or purchases for future delivery as bona fide hedging of unsold anticipated production or... for future delivery as bona fide hedging of unsold anticipated production or unfilled anticipated... anticipated production or unfilled anticipated requirements described in these statements shall not be...

Geometry Students' Hedged Statements and Their Self-Regulation of Mathematics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kosko, Karl W.

2012-01-01

Statements conveying a degree of certainty or doubt, in the form of hedging, have been linked with logical inference in students' talk (Rowland, 2000). Considering the current emphasis on increasing student autonomy for effective mathematical discourse, I posit a relationship between hedging and student autonomy. In the current study, high school…

On the Hedges Correction for a "t"-Test

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

VanHoudnos, Nathan M.; Greenhouse, Joel B.

2016-01-01

When cluster randomized experiments are analyzed as if units were independent, test statistics for treatment effects can be anticonservative. Hedges proposed a correction for such tests by scaling them to control their Type I error rate. This article generalizes the Hedges correction from a posttest-only experimental design to more common designs…

77 FR 54808 - Integrated Hedging Transactions of Qualifying Debt

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-09-06

... integrated transactions that involve a foreign currency denominated debt instrument and multiple associated... currency). See Sec. 1.988-5(a)(9). A qualified hedging transaction is an integrated economic transaction...) regardless of its denominated currency. See Sec. 1.988-5(a)(3). A Sec. 1.988-5(a) hedge is a spot contract...

Spray Coverage, Hedging and Pecan Scab - an Update on Research

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Pecan scab is caused by the fungus Fusicladium effusum, and is the major disease of pecan in Georgia and elsewhere in the region, causing severe yield loss in some seasons and areas. There are several reasons for hedging, and some issues may arise as a result of the hedging management practice. Thre...

Advanced Numerical Methods for Computing Statistical Quantities of Interest from Solutions of SPDES

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-01-19

and related optimization problems; developing numerical methods for option pricing problems in the presence of random arbitrage return. 1. Novel...equations (BSDEs) are connected to nonlinear partial differen- tial equations and non-linear semigroups, to the theory of hedging and pricing of contingent...the presence of random arbitrage return [3] We consider option pricing problems when we relax the condition of no arbitrage in the Black- Scholes

Advanced Nuclear Fuel Cycle Transitions: Optimization, Modeling Choices, and Disruptions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carlsen, Robert W.

Many nuclear fuel cycle simulators have evolved over time to help understan the nuclear industry/ecosystem at a macroscopic level. Cyclus is one of th first fuel cycle simulators to accommodate larger-scale analysis with it liberal open-source licensing and first-class Linux support. Cyclus also ha features that uniquely enable investigating the effects of modeling choices o fuel cycle simulators and scenarios. This work is divided into thre experiments focusing on optimization, effects of modeling choices, and fue cycle uncertainty. Effective optimization techniques are developed for automatically determinin desirable facility deployment schedules with Cyclus. A novel method fo mapping optimization variables to deployment schedules is developed. Thi allows relationships between reactor types and scenario constraints to b represented implicitly in the variable definitions enabling the usage o optimizers lacking constraint support. It also prevents wasting computationa resources evaluating infeasible deployment schedules. Deployed power capacit over time and deployment of non-reactor facilities are also included a optimization variables There are many fuel cycle simulators built with different combinations o modeling choices. Comparing results between them is often difficult. Cyclus flexibility allows comparing effects of many such modeling choices. Reacto refueling cycle synchronization and inter-facility competition among othe effects are compared in four cases each using combinations of fleet of individually modeled reactors with 1-month or 3-month time steps. There are noticeable differences in results for the different cases. The larges differences occur during periods of constrained reactor fuel availability This and similar work can help improve the quality of fuel cycle analysi generally There is significant uncertainty associated deploying new nuclear technologie such as time-frames for technology availability and the cost of buildin advanced reactors. Historically, fuel cycle analysis has focused on answerin questions of fuel cycle feasibility and optimality. However, there has no been much work done to address uncertainty in fuel cycle analysis helpin answer questions of fuel cycle robustness. This work develops an demonstrates a methodology for evaluating deployment strategies whil accounting for uncertainty. Techniques are developed for measuring th hedging properties of deployment strategies under uncertainty. Additionally methods for using optimization to automatically find good hedging strategie are demonstrated.

26 CFR 1.149(g)-1 - Hedge bonds.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... 26 Internal Revenue 2 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Hedge bonds. 1.149(g)-1 Section 1.149(g)-1...) INCOME TAXES (CONTINUED) Tax Exemption Requirements for State and Local Bonds § 1.149(g)-1 Hedge bonds... for purposes of section 149(g) and this section. In addition, the following terms have the following...

26 CFR 1.149(g)-1 - Hedge bonds.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... 26 Internal Revenue 2 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Hedge bonds. 1.149(g)-1 Section 1.149(g)-1...) INCOME TAXES (CONTINUED) Tax Exemption Requirements for State and Local Bonds § 1.149(g)-1 Hedge bonds... for purposes of section 149(g) and this section. In addition, the following terms have the following...

26 CFR 1.149(g)-1 - Hedge bonds.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... 26 Internal Revenue 2 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Hedge bonds. 1.149(g)-1 Section 1.149(g)-1...) INCOME TAXES (CONTINUED) Tax Exemption Requirements for State and Local Bonds § 1.149(g)-1 Hedge bonds... for purposes of section 149(g) and this section. In addition, the following terms have the following...

26 CFR 1.149(g)-1 - Hedge bonds.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 26 Internal Revenue 2 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Hedge bonds. 1.149(g)-1 Section 1.149(g)-1...) INCOME TAXES (CONTINUED) Tax Exemption Requirements for State and Local Bonds § 1.149(g)-1 Hedge bonds... for purposes of section 149(g) and this section. In addition, the following terms have the following...

26 CFR 1.149(g)-1 - Hedge bonds.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 26 Internal Revenue 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Hedge bonds. 1.149(g)-1 Section 1.149(g)-1...) INCOME TAXES (CONTINUED) Tax Exemption Requirements for State and Local Bonds § 1.149(g)-1 Hedge bonds... for purposes of section 149(g) and this section. In addition, the following terms have the following...

Scientific Uncertainty in News Coverage of Cancer Research: Effects of Hedging on Scientists' and Journalists' Credibility

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jensen, Jakob D.

2008-01-01

News reports of scientific research are rarely hedged; in other words, the reports do not contain caveats, limitations, or other indicators of scientific uncertainty. Some have suggested that hedging may influence news consumers' perceptions of scientists' and journalists' credibility (perceptions that may be related to support for scientific…

18 CFR 367.1760 - Account 176, Derivative instrument assets-Hedges.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... change in the fair value of derivative instrument assets designated by the service company as cash flow or fair value hedges. (b) When a service company designates a derivative instrument asset as a cash... effective portion of the gain or loss. The ineffective portion of the cash flow hedge must be charged to the...

18 CFR 367.1760 - Account 176, Derivative instrument assets-Hedges.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... change in the fair value of derivative instrument assets designated by the service company as cash flow or fair value hedges. (b) When a service company designates a derivative instrument asset as a cash... effective portion of the gain or loss. The ineffective portion of the cash flow hedge must be charged to the...

18 CFR 367.1760 - Account 176, Derivative instrument assets-Hedges.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... change in the fair value of derivative instrument assets designated by the service company as cash flow or fair value hedges. (b) When a service company designates a derivative instrument asset as a cash... effective portion of the gain or loss. The ineffective portion of the cash flow hedge must be charged to the...

18 CFR 367.1760 - Account 176, Derivative instrument assets-Hedges.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... change in the fair value of derivative instrument assets designated by the service company as cash flow or fair value hedges. (b) When a service company designates a derivative instrument asset as a cash... effective portion of the gain or loss. The ineffective portion of the cash flow hedge must be charged to the...

18 CFR 367.1760 - Account 176, Derivative instrument assets-Hedges.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... change in the fair value of derivative instrument assets designated by the service company as cash flow or fair value hedges. (b) When a service company designates a derivative instrument asset as a cash... effective portion of the gain or loss. The ineffective portion of the cash flow hedge must be charged to the...

77 FR 23 - Prohibitions and Restrictions on Proprietary Trading and Certain Interests in, and Relationships...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-01-03

... Relationships With, Hedge Funds and Private Equity Funds AGENCIES: Office of the Comptroller of the Currency... relationships with, a hedge fund or private equity fund (``proposed rule''). Due to the complexity of the issues... in proprietary trading and have certain interests in, or relationships with, a hedge fund or private...

The Effectiveness of School-Based Mental Health Services for Elementary-Aged Children: A Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Sanchez, Amanda L; Cornacchio, Danielle; Poznanski, Bridget; Golik, Alejandra M; Chou, Tommy; Comer, Jonathan S

2018-03-01

Given problems and disparities in the use of community-based mental health services for youth, school personnel have assumed frontline mental health service roles. To date, most research on school-based services has evaluated analog educational contexts with services implemented by highly trained study staff, and little is known about the effectiveness of school-based mental health services when implemented by school professionals. Random-effects meta-analytic procedures were used to synthesize effects of school-based mental health services for elementary school-age children delivered by school personnel and potential moderators of treatment response. Forty-three controlled trials evaluating 49,941 elementary school-age children met the selection criteria (mean grade 2.86, 60.3% boys). Overall, school-based services demonstrated a small-to-medium effect (Hedges g = 0.39) in decreasing mental health problems, with the largest effects found for targeted intervention (Hedges g = 0.76), followed by selective prevention (Hedges g = 0.67), compared with universal prevention (Hedges g = 0.29). Mental health services integrated into students' academic instruction (Hedges g = 0.59), those targeting externalizing problems (Hedges g = 0.50), those incorporating contingency management (Hedges g = 0.57), and those implemented multiple times per week (Hedges g = 0.50) showed particularly strong effects. Considering serious barriers precluding youth from accessing necessary mental health care, the present meta-analysis suggests child psychiatrists and other mental health professionals are wise to recognize the important role that school personnel, who are naturally in children's lives, can play in decreasing child mental health problems. Copyright © 2018 American Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

17 CFR Appendix B to Part 151 - Examples of Bona Fide Hedging Transactions and Positions

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... fide hedge in a physical-delivery Referenced Contract during the spot month. b. Continuation of Fact... Contract during the spot month. 2. Sovereigns a. Fact Pattern: A Sovereign induces a farmer to sell his...), the risk reducing position will not qualify as a bona fide hedge during the spot month of the physical...

17 CFR Appendix B to Part 151 - Examples of Bona Fide Hedging Transactions and Positions

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... fide hedge in a physical-delivery Referenced Contract during the spot month. b. Continuation of Fact... Contract during the spot month. 2. Sovereigns a. Fact Pattern: A Sovereign induces a farmer to sell his...), the risk reducing position will not qualify as a bona fide hedge during the spot month of the physical...

Using Derivatives to Hedge Interest Rate Risk: A Student Exercise

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Donaldson, Jeff; Flagg, Donald

2014-01-01

In a world of fluctuating asset prices, many firms find the need to hedge in order to avoid or reduce losses. From a gold miner selling gold derivatives to airlines buying oil futures to protect against rising fuel costs, hedging is common practice across many different industries. In this paper, we provide students with a simplified example of a…

78 FR 28267 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; The Options Clearing Corporation; Order Approving Proposed Rule...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-05-14

... By-Laws To Facilitate the Use of the Stock Loan/Hedge Program by Canadian Clearing Members May 8...-Laws to define a Canadian Clearing Member approved to participate in the Stock Loan/Hedge Program as a... rule change is to add provisions to the By-Laws governing the OCC's Stock Loan/Hedge Program to...

Hedges Used in Business Emails: A Corpus Study on the Language Strategy of International Business Communication Online

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yue, Siwei; Wang, Xuefei

2014-01-01

Based on a corpus of 296 authentic business emails produced in computer-mediated business communication from 7 Chinese international trade enterprises, this paper addresses the language strategy applied in CMC (Computer-mediated Communication) by examining the use of hedges. With the emergence of internet, a wider range of hedges are applied…

Analytical solution of a stochastic model of risk spreading with global coupling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morita, Satoru; Yoshimura, Jin

2013-11-01

We study a stochastic matrix model to understand the mechanics of risk spreading (or bet hedging) by dispersion. Up to now, this model has been mostly dealt with numerically, except for the well-mixed case. Here, we present an analytical result that shows that optimal dispersion leads to Zipf's law. Moreover, we found that the arithmetic ensemble average of the total growth rate converges to the geometric one, because the sample size is finite.

Seasonality can induce coexistence of multiple bet-hedging strategies in Dictyostelium discoideum via storage effect.

PubMed

Martínez-García, Ricardo; Tarnita, Corina E

2017-08-07

The social amoeba Dictyostelium discoideum has been recently suggested as an example of bet-hedging in microbes. In the presence of resources, amoebae reproduce as unicellular organisms. Resource depletion, however, leads to a starvation phase in which the population splits between aggregators, which form a fruiting body made of a stalk and resistant spores, and non-aggregators, which remain as vegetative cells. Spores are favored when starvation periods are long, but vegetative cells can exploit resources in environments where food replenishes quickly. The investment in aggregators versus non-aggregators can therefore be understood as a bet-hedging strategy that evolves in response to stochastic starvation times. A genotype (or strategy) is defined by the balance between each type of cells. In this framework, if the ecological conditions on a patch are defined in terms of the mean starvation time (i.e. time between the onset of starvation and the arrival of a new food pulse), a single genotype dominates each environment, which is inconsistent with the huge genetic diversity observed in nature. Here we investigate whether seasonality, represented by a periodic, wet-dry alternation in the mean starvation times, allows the coexistence of several strategies in a single patch. We study this question in a non-spatial (well-mixed) setting in which different strains compete for a common pool of resources over a sequence of growth-starvation cycles. We find that seasonality induces a temporal storage effect that can promote the stable coexistence of multiple genotypes. Two conditions need to be met in our model. First, there has to be a temporal niche partitioning (two well-differentiated habitats within the year), which requires not only different mean starvation times between seasons but also low variance within each season. Second, each season's well-adapted strain has to grow and create a large enough population that permits its survival during the subsequent unfavorable season, which requires the number of growth-starvation cycles within each season to be sufficiently large. These conditions allow the coexistence of two bet-hedging strategies. Additional tradeoffs among life-history traits can expand the range of coexistence and increase the number of coexisting strategies, contributing toward explaining the genetic diversity observed in D. discoideum. Although focused on this cellular slime mold, our results are general and may be easily extended to other microbes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Profitability of Using Forecasting Techniques in the Commodities Market

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-12-01

12 II. THE NATURE OF THE COMMODITIES MARKET . . . . . 13 A. FUTURES TRADING . . . . ...... . . . . . 13 B. HEDGING IN THE COMMODITIES...1984 WHEAT ........ . . . ............... . 74 j7 4’ -- S . LIST OF FIGURES 2.1 Example of a Perfect Hedge . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 3.1 Iterative...actually results in a commodity delivery [Ref. 31. The majority of these transactions are * taken up by hedgers and speculators. B. HEDGING IN THE

The Existence of Smooth Densities for the Prediction, Filtering and Smoothing Problems

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-12-20

128 - 139. [14] With D. COLWELL and P.E. KOPP, Martingale representation and hedging policies. Stochastic Processes and Applications. (Accepted) [5j...Martingale Representation and Hedging Policies David B. COLWELL Robert J. ELLIOTT P. Ekkehard KOPP* Department of Statistics and Applied Probability...is determined by elementary methods in the Markov situation. Applications to hedging portfolios in finance are described. martingale representation

Intelligent ensemble T-S fuzzy neural networks with RCDPSO_DM optimization for effective handling of complex clinical pathway variances.

PubMed

Du, Gang; Jiang, Zhibin; Diao, Xiaodi; Yao, Yang

2013-07-01

Takagi-Sugeno (T-S) fuzzy neural networks (FNNs) can be used to handle complex, fuzzy, uncertain clinical pathway (CP) variances. However, there are many drawbacks, such as slow training rate, propensity to become trapped in a local minimum and poor ability to perform a global search. In order to improve overall performance of variance handling by T-S FNNs, a new CP variance handling method is proposed in this study. It is based on random cooperative decomposing particle swarm optimization with double mutation mechanism (RCDPSO_DM) for T-S FNNs. Moreover, the proposed integrated learning algorithm, combining the RCDPSO_DM algorithm with a Kalman filtering algorithm, is applied to optimize antecedent and consequent parameters of constructed T-S FNNs. Then, a multi-swarm cooperative immigrating particle swarm algorithm ensemble method is used for intelligent ensemble T-S FNNs with RCDPSO_DM optimization to further improve stability and accuracy of CP variance handling. Finally, two case studies on liver and kidney poisoning variances in osteosarcoma preoperative chemotherapy are used to validate the proposed method. The result demonstrates that intelligent ensemble T-S FNNs based on the RCDPSO_DM achieves superior performances, in terms of stability, efficiency, precision and generalizability, over PSO ensemble of all T-S FNNs with RCDPSO_DM optimization, single T-S FNNs with RCDPSO_DM optimization, standard T-S FNNs, standard Mamdani FNNs and T-S FNNs based on other algorithms (cooperative particle swarm optimization and particle swarm optimization) for CP variance handling. Therefore, it makes CP variance handling more effective. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A risk hedging strategy under the nonparallel-shift yield curve

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gong, Pu; He, Xubiao

2005-08-01

Under the assumption of the movement of rigid, a nonparallel-shift model in the term structure of interest rates is developed by introducing Fisher & Weil duration which is a well-known concept in the area of interest risk management. This paper has studied the hedge and replication for portfolio immunization to minimize the risk exposure. Throughout the experiment of numerical simulation, the risk exposures of the portfolio under the different risk hedging strategies are quantitatively evaluated by the method of value at risk (VaR) order statistics (OS) estimation. The results show that the risk hedging strategy proposed in this paper is very effective for the interest risk management of the default-free bond.

Hedge math: Theoretical limits on minimum stockpile size across nuclear hedging strategies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lafleur, Jarret Marshall; Roesler, Alexander W.

2016-09-01

In June 2013, the Department of Defense published a congressionally mandated, unclassified update on the U.S. Nuclear Employment Strategy. Among the many updates in this document are three key ground rules for guiding the sizing of the non-deployed U.S. nuclear stockpile. Furthermore, these ground rules form an important and objective set of criteria against which potential future stockpile hedging strategies can be evaluated.

Measures of Residual Risk with Connections to Regression, Risk Tracking, Surrogate Models, and Ambiguity

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-05-20

original variable. Residual risk can be exempli ed as a quanti cation of the improved situation faced by a hedging investor compared to that of a...distributional information about Yx for every x as well as the computational cost of evaluating R(Yx) for numerous x, for example within an optimization...Still, when g is costly to evaluate , it might be desirable to develop an approximation of R(Yx), x ∈ IRn through regression based on observations {xj

I-HEDGE: determining the optimum complementary sets of taxa for conservation using evolutionary isolation

PubMed Central

Mooers, Arne Ø.; Caccone, Adalgisa; Russello, Michael A.

2016-01-01

In the midst of the current biodiversity crisis, conservation efforts might profitably be directed towards ensuring that extinctions do not result in inordinate losses of evolutionary history. Numerous methods have been developed to evaluate the importance of species based on their contribution to total phylogenetic diversity on trees and networks, but existing methods fail to take complementarity into account, and thus cannot identify the best order or subset of taxa to protect. Here, we develop a novel iterative calculation of the heightened evolutionary distinctiveness and globally endangered metric (I-HEDGE) that produces the optimal ranked list for conservation prioritization, taking into account complementarity and based on both phylogenetic diversity and extinction probability. We applied this metric to a phylogenetic network based on mitochondrial control region data from extant and recently extinct giant Galápagos tortoises, a highly endangered group of closely related species. We found that the restoration of two extinct species (a project currently underway) will contribute the greatest gain in phylogenetic diversity, and present an ordered list of rankings that is the optimum complementarity set for conservation prioritization. PMID:27635324

I-HEDGE: determining the optimum complementary sets of taxa for conservation using evolutionary isolation.

PubMed

Jensen, Evelyn L; Mooers, Arne Ø; Caccone, Adalgisa; Russello, Michael A

2016-01-01

In the midst of the current biodiversity crisis, conservation efforts might profitably be directed towards ensuring that extinctions do not result in inordinate losses of evolutionary history. Numerous methods have been developed to evaluate the importance of species based on their contribution to total phylogenetic diversity on trees and networks, but existing methods fail to take complementarity into account, and thus cannot identify the best order or subset of taxa to protect. Here, we develop a novel iterative calculation of the heightened evolutionary distinctiveness and globally endangered metric (I-HEDGE) that produces the optimal ranked list for conservation prioritization, taking into account complementarity and based on both phylogenetic diversity and extinction probability. We applied this metric to a phylogenetic network based on mitochondrial control region data from extant and recently extinct giant Galápagos tortoises, a highly endangered group of closely related species. We found that the restoration of two extinct species (a project currently underway) will contribute the greatest gain in phylogenetic diversity, and present an ordered list of rankings that is the optimum complementarity set for conservation prioritization.

Optimal control of LQG problem with an explicit trade-off between mean and variance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qian, Fucai; Xie, Guo; Liu, Ding; Xie, Wenfang

2011-12-01

For discrete-time linear-quadratic Gaussian (LQG) control problems, a utility function on the expectation and the variance of the conventional performance index is considered. The utility function is viewed as an overall objective of the system and can perform the optimal trade-off between the mean and the variance of performance index. The nonlinear utility function is first converted into an auxiliary parameters optimisation problem about the expectation and the variance. Then an optimal closed-loop feedback controller for the nonseparable mean-variance minimisation problem is designed by nonlinear mathematical programming. Finally, simulation results are given to verify the algorithm's effectiveness obtained in this article.

Portfolio optimization using median-variance approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wan Mohd, Wan Rosanisah; Mohamad, Daud; Mohamed, Zulkifli

2013-04-01

Optimization models have been applied in many decision-making problems particularly in portfolio selection. Since the introduction of Markowitz's theory of portfolio selection, various approaches based on mathematical programming have been introduced such as mean-variance, mean-absolute deviation, mean-variance-skewness and conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) mainly to maximize return and minimize risk. However most of the approaches assume that the distribution of data is normal and this is not generally true. As an alternative, in this paper, we employ the median-variance approach to improve the portfolio optimization. This approach has successfully catered both types of normal and non-normal distribution of data. With this actual representation, we analyze and compare the rate of return and risk between the mean-variance and the median-variance based portfolio which consist of 30 stocks from Bursa Malaysia. The results in this study show that the median-variance approach is capable to produce a lower risk for each return earning as compared to the mean-variance approach.

The Regional Special Operations Headquarters: Franchising the NATO Model as a Hedge in Lean Times

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-04-01

1 AIR FORCE FELLOWS AIR UNIVERSITY THE REGIONAL SPECIAL OPERATIONS HEADQUARTERS: FRANCHISING THE NATO MODEL AS A HEDGE IN LEAN...Headquarters: Franchising The NATO Model As A Hedge In Lean Times 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d...it is not copyrighted, but is the property of the United States government. 3 The Regional Special Operations Headquarters: Franchising the

Pricing and hedging derivative securities with neural networks: Bayesian regularization, early stopping, and bagging.

PubMed

Gençay, R; Qi, M

2001-01-01

We study the effectiveness of cross validation, Bayesian regularization, early stopping, and bagging to mitigate overfitting and improving generalization for pricing and hedging derivative securities with daily S&P 500 index daily call options from January 1988 to December 1993. Our results indicate that Bayesian regularization can generate significantly smaller pricing and delta-hedging errors than the baseline neural-network (NN) model and the Black-Scholes model for some years. While early stopping does not affect the pricing errors, it significantly reduces the hedging error (HE) in four of the six years we investigated. Although computationally most demanding, bagging seems to provide the most accurate pricing and delta hedging. Furthermore, the standard deviation of the MSPE of bagging is far less than that of the baseline model in all six years, and the standard deviation of the average HE of bagging is far less than that of the baseline model in five out of six years. We conclude that they be used at least in cases when no appropriate hints are available.

Random matrix theory and fund of funds portfolio optimisation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Conlon, T.; Ruskin, H. J.; Crane, M.

2007-08-01

The proprietary nature of Hedge Fund investing means that it is common practise for managers to release minimal information about their returns. The construction of a fund of hedge funds portfolio requires a correlation matrix which often has to be estimated using a relatively small sample of monthly returns data which induces noise. In this paper, random matrix theory (RMT) is applied to a cross-correlation matrix C, constructed using hedge fund returns data. The analysis reveals a number of eigenvalues that deviate from the spectrum suggested by RMT. The components of the deviating eigenvectors are found to correspond to distinct groups of strategies that are applied by hedge fund managers. The inverse participation ratio is used to quantify the number of components that participate in each eigenvector. Finally, the correlation matrix is cleaned by separating the noisy part from the non-noisy part of C. This technique is found to greatly reduce the difference between the predicted and realised risk of a portfolio, leading to an improved risk profile for a fund of hedge funds.

BRIK, An Interactive, Goal Programming Model for Nuclear Exchange Problems

DTIC Science & Technology

1984-03-01

Hedging),(ZW d-),(de+)) 2) min (( Td ),(Hedging),(Tdj-),(Zdi7),(de+)) 3) min ((Zd +),(2:d +),(Hedging),(d )) Constraint Set st: -. (nS ij)yi j + dj...1 Z; L- L) U u~ c) r-c L 00 0 0 0) +* -’ 0ki I . 9-I 0 t- ’f) +fl -4-4C N- M1-~C q, b") u3 Ul)4) . a) 0f c~4 ) al N U- 4) i Ill aj - X 111 a 10 C L

Mindfulness-Based Interventions for People Diagnosed with a Current Episode of an Anxiety or Depressive Disorder: A Meta-Analysis of Randomised Controlled Trials

PubMed Central

Strauss, Clara; Cavanagh, Kate; Oliver, Annie; Pettman, Danelle

2014-01-01

Objective Mindfulness-based interventions (MBIs) can reduce risk of depressive relapse for people with a history of recurrent depression who are currently well. However, the cognitive, affective and motivational features of depression and anxiety might render MBIs ineffective for people experiencing current symptoms. This paper presents a meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of MBIs where participants met diagnostic criteria for a current episode of an anxiety or depressive disorder. Method Post-intervention between-group Hedges g effect sizes were calculated using a random effects model. Moderator analyses of primary diagnosis, intervention type and control condition were conducted and publication bias was assessed. Results Twelve studies met inclusion criteria (n = 578). There were significant post-intervention between-group benefits of MBIs relative to control conditions on primary symptom severity (Hedges g = −0.59, 95% CI = −0.12 to −1.06). Effects were demonstrated for depressive symptom severity (Hedges g = −0.73, 95% CI = −0.09 to −1.36), but not for anxiety symptom severity (Hedges g = −0.55, 95% CI = 0.09 to −1.18), for RCTs with an inactive control (Hedges g = −1.03, 95% CI = −0.40 to −1.66), but not where there was an active control (Hedges g = 0.03, 95% CI = 0.54 to −0.48) and effects were found for MBCT (Hedges g = −0.39, 95% CI = −0.15 to −0.63) but not for MBSR (Hedges g = −0.75, 95% CI = 0.31 to −1.81). Conclusions This is the first meta-analysis of RCTs of MBIs where all studies included only participants who were diagnosed with a current episode of a depressive or anxiety disorder. Effects of MBIs on primary symptom severity were found for people with a current depressive disorder and it is recommended that MBIs might be considered as an intervention for this population. PMID:24763812

Spatially heterogeneous stochasticity and the adaptive diversification of dormancy.

PubMed

Rajon, E; Venner, S; Menu, F

2009-10-01

Diversified bet-hedging, a strategy that leads several individuals with the same genotype to express distinct phenotypes in a given generation, is now well established as a common evolutionary response to environmental stochasticity. Life-history traits defined as diversified bet-hedging (e.g. germination or diapause strategies) display marked differences between populations in spatial proximity. In order to find out whether such differences can be explained by local adaptations to spatially heterogeneous environmental stochasticity, we explored the evolution of bet-hedging dormancy strategies in a metapopulation using a two-patch model with patch differences in stochastic juvenile survival. We found that spatial differences in the level of environmental stochasticity, restricted dispersal, increased fragmentation and intermediate survival during dormancy all favour the adaptive diversification of bet-hedging dormancy strategies. Density dependency also plays a major role in the diversification of dormancy strategies because: (i) it may interact locally with environmental stochasticity and amplify its effects; however, (ii) it can also generate chaotic population dynamics that may impede diversification. Our work proposes new hypotheses to explain the spatial patterns of bet-hedging strategies that we hope will encourage new empirical studies of this topic.

Applications of polynomial optimization in financial risk investment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, Meilan; Fu, Hongwei

2017-09-01

Recently, polynomial optimization has many important applications in optimization, financial economics and eigenvalues of tensor, etc. This paper studies the applications of polynomial optimization in financial risk investment. We consider the standard mean-variance risk measurement model and the mean-variance risk measurement model with transaction costs. We use Lasserre's hierarchy of semidefinite programming (SDP) relaxations to solve the specific cases. The results show that polynomial optimization is effective for some financial optimization problems.

1. General view of Oregon Electric Railway, view looking north ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

1. General view of Oregon Electric Railway, view looking north at Hedges Creek trestle. - Oregon Electric Railroad, Hedges Creek Trestle, Garden Home to Wilsonville Segment, Milepost 38.7, Garden Home, Washington County, OR

The importance of personality and parental styles on optimism in adolescents.

PubMed

Zanon, Cristian; Bastianello, Micheline Roat; Pacico, Juliana Cerentini; Hutz, Claudio Simon

2014-01-01

Some studies have suggested that personality factors are important to optimism development. Others have emphasized that family relations are relevant variables to optimism. This study aimed to evaluate the importance of parenting styles to optimism controlling for the variance accounted for by personality factors. Participants were 344 Brazilian high school students (44% male) with mean age of 16.2 years (SD = 1) who answered personality, optimism, responsiveness and demandingness scales. Hierarchical regression analyses were conducted having personality factors (in the first step) and maternal and paternal parenting styles, and demandingness and responsiveness (in the second step) as predictive variables and optimism as the criterion. Personality factors, especially neuroticism (β = -.34, p < .01), extraversion (β = .26, p < .01) and agreeableness (β = .16, p < .01), accounted for 34% of the optimism variance and insignificant variance was predicted exclusively by parental styles (1%). These findings suggest that personality is more important to optimism development than parental styles.

Sample size calculation in cost-effectiveness cluster randomized trials: optimal and maximin approaches.

PubMed

Manju, Md Abu; Candel, Math J J M; Berger, Martijn P F

2014-07-10

In this paper, the optimal sample sizes at the cluster and person levels for each of two treatment arms are obtained for cluster randomized trials where the cost-effectiveness of treatments on a continuous scale is studied. The optimal sample sizes maximize the efficiency or power for a given budget or minimize the budget for a given efficiency or power. Optimal sample sizes require information on the intra-cluster correlations (ICCs) for effects and costs, the correlations between costs and effects at individual and cluster levels, the ratio of the variance of effects translated into costs to the variance of the costs (the variance ratio), sampling and measuring costs, and the budget. When planning, a study information on the model parameters usually is not available. To overcome this local optimality problem, the current paper also presents maximin sample sizes. The maximin sample sizes turn out to be rather robust against misspecifying the correlation between costs and effects at the cluster and individual levels but may lose much efficiency when misspecifying the variance ratio. The robustness of the maximin sample sizes against misspecifying the ICCs depends on the variance ratio. The maximin sample sizes are robust under misspecification of the ICC for costs for realistic values of the variance ratio greater than one but not robust under misspecification of the ICC for effects. Finally, we show how to calculate optimal or maximin sample sizes that yield sufficient power for a test on the cost-effectiveness of an intervention.

On the Likely Utility of Hybrid Weights Optimized for Variances in Hybrid Error Covariance Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Satterfield, E.; Hodyss, D.; Kuhl, D.; Bishop, C. H.

2017-12-01

Because of imperfections in ensemble data assimilation schemes, one cannot assume that the ensemble covariance is equal to the true error covariance of a forecast. Previous work demonstrated how information about the distribution of true error variances given an ensemble sample variance can be revealed from an archive of (observation-minus-forecast, ensemble-variance) data pairs. Here, we derive a simple and intuitively compelling formula to obtain the mean of this distribution of true error variances given an ensemble sample variance from (observation-minus-forecast, ensemble-variance) data pairs produced by a single run of a data assimilation system. This formula takes the form of a Hybrid weighted average of the climatological forecast error variance and the ensemble sample variance. Here, we test the extent to which these readily obtainable weights can be used to rapidly optimize the covariance weights used in Hybrid data assimilation systems that employ weighted averages of static covariance models and flow-dependent ensemble based covariance models. Univariate data assimilation and multi-variate cycling ensemble data assimilation are considered. In both cases, it is found that our computationally efficient formula gives Hybrid weights that closely approximate the optimal weights found through the simple but computationally expensive process of testing every plausible combination of weights.

Market Efficiency and the Risks and Returns of Dynamic Trading Strategies with Commodity Futures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Switzer, Lorne N.; Jiang, Hui

This paper investigates relationships between profits from dynamic trading strategies, risk premium, convenience yields, and net hedging pressures for commodity futures. As a market efficiency study, it crosses a number of disciplines, including traditional finance, behavioral finance, and behavioral psychology. The term structure of oil, gold, copper and soybeans futures markets contains predictive power for the corresponding term premium. However, only oil futures and soybean futures lead their spot premium. Significant momentum profits are identified in both outright futures and spread trading strategies when the spot premium and the term premium are used to form winner and loser portfolios. Profits from active strategies based on winner and loser portfolios are conditioned on market structure and net hedging pressure effects. Dynamic trading strategies based on contracts with extreme backwardation, extreme contango, and extreme hedging pressures are also tested. On average, spread trading outperforms outright futures trading in capturing the term structure risk and hedging pressure risk. For such strategies, long-short the long-term spread offers the greatest and most significant return and it offers the only exploitable trading profits built on the past hedging pressure. The existence of profits from active trading strategies based on winners is consistent with behavioral finance and behavioral psychology models in which market participants irrationally overreact to information and trends.

Comparing Students With and Without Reading Difficulties on Reading Comprehension Assessments: A Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Collins, Alyson A; Lindström, Esther R; Compton, Donald L

Researchers have increasingly investigated sources of variance in reading comprehension test scores, particularly with students with reading difficulties (RD). The purpose of this meta-analysis was to determine if the achievement gap between students with RD and typically developing (TD) students varies as a function of different reading comprehension response formats (e.g., multiple choice, cloze). A systematic literature review identified 82 eligible studies. All studies administered reading comprehension assessments to students with RD and TD students in Grades K-12. Hedge's g standardized mean difference effect sizes were calculated, and random effects robust variance estimation techniques were used to aggregate average weighted effect sizes for each response format. Results indicated that the achievement gap between students with RD and TD students was larger for some response formats (e.g., picture selection ES g = -1.80) than others (e.g., retell ES g = -0.60). Moreover, for multiple-choice, cloze, and open-ended question response formats, single-predictor metaregression models explored potential moderators of heterogeneity in effect sizes. No clear patterns, however, emerged in regard to moderators of heterogeneity in effect sizes across response formats. Findings suggest that the use of different response formats may lead to variability in the achievement gap between students with RD and TD students.

Narrow grass hedges reduce tylosin and associated antimicrobial resistance genes in agricultural runoff

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Agricultural runoff from areas receiving livestock manure can potentially contaminate surface water with antimicrobials and antimicrobial resistance genes (ARGs). The objective of this study was to investigate the effectiveness of narrow grass hedges (NGHs) on reducing the transport of antimicrobial...

EFFECT OF METHYLENE BLUE ON DEVELOPING ZEBRAFISH EMBRYOS Danio rerio

EPA Science Inventory

EFFECT OF METHYLENE BLUE ON DEVELOPING ZEBRAFISH EMBRYOS Danio rerioJoan M. Hedge*, Erik Sanders, Kimberly A. Jarema, Deborah Hunter, and Stephanie PadillaIntegrated Systems Toxicology Division, NHEERL, US EPA, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709hedge.joan@epa.govOur laboratory rout...

Discovery of Influenza A Virus Sequence Pairs and Their Combinations for Simultaneous Heterosubtypic Targeting that Hedge against Antiviral Resistance

PubMed Central

Lin, Jing; Pramono, Zacharias Aloysius Dwi; Maurer-Stroh, Sebastian

2016-01-01

The multiple circulating human influenza A virus subtypes coupled with the perpetual genomic mutations and segment reassortment events challenge the development of effective therapeutics. The capacity to drug most RNAs motivates the investigation on viral RNA targets. 123,060 segment sequences from 35,938 strains of the most prevalent subtypes also infecting humans–H1N1, 2009 pandemic H1N1, H3N2, H5N1 and H7N9, were used to identify 1,183 conserved RNA target sequences (≥15-mer) in the internal segments. 100% theoretical coverage in simultaneous heterosubtypic targeting is achieved by pairing specific sequences from the same segment (“Duals”) or from two segments (“Doubles”); 1,662 Duals and 28,463 Doubles identified. By combining specific Duals and/or Doubles to form a target graph wherein an edge connecting two vertices (target sequences) represents a Dual or Double, it is possible to hedge against antiviral resistance besides maintaining 100% heterosubtypic coverage. To evaluate the hedging potential, we define the hedge-factor as the minimum number of resistant target sequences that will render the graph to become resistant i.e. eliminate all the edges therein; a target sequence or a graph is considered resistant when it cannot achieve 100% heterosubtypic coverage. In an n-vertices graph (n ≥ 3), the hedge-factor is maximal (= n– 1) when it is a complete graph i.e. every distinct pair in a graph is either a Dual or Double. Computational analyses uncover an extensive number of complete graphs of different sizes. Monte Carlo simulations show that the mutation counts and time elapsed for a target graph to become resistant increase with the hedge-factor. Incidentally, target sequences which were reported to reduce virus titre in experiments are included in our target graphs. The identity of target sequence pairs for heterosubtypic targeting and their combinations for hedging antiviral resistance are useful toolkits to construct target graphs for different therapeutic objectives. PMID:26771381

LMI-Based Fuzzy Optimal Variance Control of Airfoil Model Subject to Input Constraints

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Swei, Sean S.M.; Ayoubi, Mohammad A.

2017-01-01

This paper presents a study of fuzzy optimal variance control problem for dynamical systems subject to actuator amplitude and rate constraints. Using Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy modeling and dynamic Parallel Distributed Compensation technique, the stability and the constraints can be cast as a multi-objective optimization problem in the form of Linear Matrix Inequalities. By utilizing the formulations and solutions for the input and output variance constraint problems, we develop a fuzzy full-state feedback controller. The stability and performance of the proposed controller is demonstrated through its application to the airfoil flutter suppression.

Swarm based mean-variance mapping optimization (MVMOS) for solving economic dispatch

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khoa, T. H.; Vasant, P. M.; Singh, M. S. Balbir; Dieu, V. N.

2014-10-01

The economic dispatch (ED) is an essential optimization task in the power generation system. It is defined as the process of allocating the real power output of generation units to meet required load demand so as their total operating cost is minimized while satisfying all physical and operational constraints. This paper introduces a novel optimization which named as Swarm based Mean-variance mapping optimization (MVMOS). The technique is the extension of the original single particle mean-variance mapping optimization (MVMO). Its features make it potentially attractive algorithm for solving optimization problems. The proposed method is implemented for three test power systems, including 3, 13 and 20 thermal generation units with quadratic cost function and the obtained results are compared with many other methods available in the literature. Test results have indicated that the proposed method can efficiently implement for solving economic dispatch.

Cognitive motor intervention for gait and balance in Parkinson's disease: systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Wang, Xue-Qiang; Pi, Yan-Ling; Chen, Bing-Lin; Wang, Ru; Li, Xin; Chen, Pei-Jie

2016-02-01

We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the effect of cognitive motor intervention (CMI) on gait and balance in Parkinson's disease. PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, CINAHL, Web of Science, PEDro, and China Biology Medicine disc. We included randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and non RCTs. Two reviewers independently evaluated articles for eligibility and quality and serially abstracted data. A standardized mean difference ± standard error and 95% confidence interval (CI) was calculated for each study using Hedge's g to quantify the treatment effect. Nine trials with 181 subjects, four randomized controlled trials, and five single group intervention studies were included. The pooling revealed that cognitive motor intervention can improve gait speed (Hedge's g = 0.643 ± 0.191; 95% CI: 0.269 to 1.017, P = 0.001), stride time (Hedge's g = -0.536 ± 0.167; 95% CI: -0.862 to -0.209, P = 0.001), Berg Balance Scale (Hedge's g = 0.783 ± 0.289; 95% CI: 0.218 to 1.349, P = 0.007), Unipedal Stance Test (Hedge's g = 0.440 ± 0.189; 95% CI: 0.07 to 0.81, P =0.02). The systematic review demonstrates that cognitive motor intervention is effective for gait and balance in Parkinson's disease. However, the paper is limited by the quality of the included trials. © The Author(s) 2015.

Hedging and Boosting in English and Indonesian Research Articles

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sanjaya, I Nyoman Suka

2013-01-01

The present cross-cultural and cross-disciplinary study was aimed at exploring the similarities and differences between English and Indonesian research articles from the disciplines of applied linguistics and chemistry in terms of frequency of usage of hedges (e.g. "perhaps," "may") and boosters (e.g. "clearly,"…

12 CFR 217.203 - Requirements for application of this subpart F.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... hedging strategies for its trading positions that are approved by senior management of the Board-regulated... to hedge the risk of the portfolio. (b) Management of covered positions—(1) Active management. A...; (iv) Daily monitoring by senior management of information described in paragraphs (b)(1)(i) through (b...

12 CFR 324.203 - Requirements for application of this subpart F.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... defined trading and hedging strategies for its trading positions that are approved by senior management of... FDIC-supervised institution will use to hedge the risk of the portfolio. (b) Management of covered positions—(1) Active management. An FDIC-supervised institution must have clearly defined policies and...

Analyzing Hedges in Verbal Communication: An Adaptation-Based Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wang, Yuling

2010-01-01

Based on Adaptation Theory, the article analyzes the production process of hedges. The procedure consists of the continuous making of choices in linguistic forms and communicative strategies. These choices are made just for adaptation to the contextual correlates. Besides, the adaptation process is dynamic, intentional and bidirectional.

[Life cycle of Gongylonema mucronatum Seurat, 1916, parasite of the African hedge-hog (author's transl)].

PubMed

Quentin, J C; Seguignes, M

1979-01-01

The Gongylonematid Nematode parasite of the Tunisian hedge-hog has been identified as Gongylonema mucronatum Seurat, 1916. The infective larva has been obtained from Locusta migratoria as intermediate host. The larval characters of this Gongylonema link it to the species G. pulchrum.

26 CFR 1.1275-6 - Integration of qualifying debt instruments.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 26 Internal Revenue 11 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 true Integration of qualifying debt instruments. 1....1275-6 Integration of qualifying debt instruments. (a) In general. This section generally provides for the integration of a qualifying debt instrument with a hedge or combination of hedges if the combined...

Conservative Delta Hedging

DTIC Science & Technology

1997-09-01

an exact method for converting such intervals into arbitrage based prices of financial derivatives or industrial or contractual options. We call this...procedure conservative delta hedging . As existing procedures are of an ad hoc nature, the proposed approach will permit an institution’s man agement a greater oversight of its exposure to risk.

17 CFR 19.00 - General provisions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... and derivation of such conversion factors. (Approved by the Office of Management and Budget under... to the following: (1) Excluding products or byproducts of the cash commodity hedged. If the regular... cash positions for bona fide hedging (as defined in § 1.3(z) of this chapter), the same shall be...

12 CFR 956.6 - Use of hedging instruments.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... counterparty for over-the-counter derivative contracts shall include: (i) A requirement that market value... reasonable estimate of the market value of the over-the-counter derivative contract at termination (standard.... Derivative instruments that do not qualify as hedging instruments pursuant to GAAP may be used only if a non...

Optimizing Air Transportation Service to Metroplex Airports. Part 1; Analysis of Historical Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Donohue, George; Hoffman, Karla; Sherry, Lance; Ferguson, John; Kara, Abdul Qadar

2010-01-01

The air transportation system is a significant driver of the U.S. economy, providing safe, affordable, and rapid transportation. During the past three decades airspace and airport capacity has not grown in step with demand for air transportation (+4% annual growth), resulting in unreliable service and systemic delays. Estimates of the impact of delays and unreliable air transportation service on the economy range from $32B to $41B per year. This report describes the results of an analysis of airline strategic decision-making with regards to: (1) geographic access, (2) economic access, and (3) airline finances. This analysis evaluated markets-served, scheduled flights, aircraft size, airfares, and profit from 2005-2009. During this period, airlines experienced changes in costs of operation (due to fluctuations in hedged fuel prices), changes in travel demand (due to changes in the economy), and changes in infrastructure capacity (due to the capacity limits at EWR, JFK, and LGA). This analysis captures the impact of the implementation of capacity limits at airports, as well as the effect of increased costs of operation (i.e. hedged fuel prices). The increases in costs of operation serve as a proxy for increased costs per flight that might occur if auctions or congestion pricing are imposed.

Static vs stochastic optimization: A case study of FTSE Bursa Malaysia sectorial indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mamat, Nur Jumaadzan Zaleha; Jaaman, Saiful Hafizah; Ahmad, Rokiah@Rozita

2014-06-01

Traditional portfolio optimization methods in the likes of Markowitz' mean-variance model and semi-variance model utilize static expected return and volatility risk from historical data to generate an optimal portfolio. The optimal portfolio may not truly be optimal in reality due to the fact that maximum and minimum values from the data may largely influence the expected return and volatility risk values. This paper considers distributions of assets' return and volatility risk to determine a more realistic optimized portfolio. For illustration purposes, the sectorial indices data in FTSE Bursa Malaysia is employed. The results show that stochastic optimization provides more stable information ratio.

78 FR 65402 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated; Notice of Filing of...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-10-31

... trade VIX derivatives (e.g., options and futures) often hedge their positions with the SPX option series... options and futures. Because those option series are typically used to hedge VIX derivatives, market... settlement date for volatility index options and futures, modified Hybrid Opening System (HOSS) opening...

Revisiting the Long-Term Hedge Value of Wind Power in an Era of Low Natural Gas Prices

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bolinger, Mark

This report investigates the degree to which wind power can still serve as a cost-effective hedge against rising natural gas prices, given the significant reduction in gas prices in recent years, coupled with expectations that prices will remain low for many years to come.

26 CFR 1.1275-6 - Integration of qualifying debt instruments.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... 26 Internal Revenue 11 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Integration of qualifying debt instruments. 1... Losses § 1.1275-6 Integration of qualifying debt instruments. (a) In general. This section generally provides for the integration of a qualifying debt instrument with a hedge or combination of hedges if the...

26 CFR 1.1275-6 - Integration of qualifying debt instruments.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 26 Internal Revenue 11 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Integration of qualifying debt instruments. 1... Losses § 1.1275-6 Integration of qualifying debt instruments. (a) In general. This section generally provides for the integration of a qualifying debt instrument with a hedge or combination of hedges if the...

26 CFR 1.1275-6 - Integration of qualifying debt instruments.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... 26 Internal Revenue 11 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Integration of qualifying debt instruments. 1... Losses § 1.1275-6 Integration of qualifying debt instruments. (a) In general. This section generally provides for the integration of a qualifying debt instrument with a hedge or combination of hedges if the...

26 CFR 1.1275-6 - Integration of qualifying debt instruments.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... 26 Internal Revenue 11 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Integration of qualifying debt instruments. 1... Losses § 1.1275-6 Integration of qualifying debt instruments. (a) In general. This section generally provides for the integration of a qualifying debt instrument with a hedge or combination of hedges if the...

12 CFR 324.210 - Standardized measurement method for specific risk.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... purchased credit protection is capped at the current fair value of the transaction plus the absolute value... hedge has a specific risk add-on of zero if: (i) The debt or securitization position is fully hedged by... debt or securitization positions, an FDIC-supervised institution must multiply the absolute value of...

Narrow grass hedge effects on nutrient transport following swine slurry application

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The effectiveness of a narrow grass hedge in reducing runoff nutrient loads following swine slurry application was examined in this study. Slurry was applied to 0.75-m wide by 4.0-m long plots established on an Aksarben silty clay loam soil located in southeast Nebraska. Manure treatments consisted ...

Semi-nonparametric VaR forecasts for hedge funds during the recent crisis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Del Brio, Esther B.; Mora-Valencia, Andrés; Perote, Javier

2014-05-01

The need to provide accurate value-at-risk (VaR) forecasting measures has triggered an important literature in econophysics. Although these accurate VaR models and methodologies are particularly demanded for hedge fund managers, there exist few articles specifically devoted to implement new techniques in hedge fund returns VaR forecasting. This article advances in these issues by comparing the performance of risk measures based on parametric distributions (the normal, Student’s t and skewed-t), semi-nonparametric (SNP) methodologies based on Gram-Charlier (GC) series and the extreme value theory (EVT) approach. Our results show that normal-, Student’s t- and Skewed t- based methodologies fail to forecast hedge fund VaR, whilst SNP and EVT approaches accurately success on it. We extend these results to the multivariate framework by providing an explicit formula for the GC copula and its density that encompasses the Gaussian copula and accounts for non-linear dependences. We show that the VaR obtained by the meta GC accurately captures portfolio risk and outperforms regulatory VaR estimates obtained through the meta Gaussian and Student’s t distributions.

The formal Darwinism project: a mid-term report.

PubMed

Grafen, A

2007-07-01

For 8 years I have been pursuing in print an ambitious and at times highly technical programme of work, the 'Formal Darwinism Project', whose essence is to underpin and formalize the fitness optimization ideas used by behavioural ecologists, using a new kind of argument linking the mathematics of motion and the mathematics of optimization. The value of the project is to give stronger support to current practices, and at the same time sharpening theoretical ideas and suggesting principled resolutions of some untidy areas, for example, how to define fitness. The aim is also to unify existing free-standing theoretical structures, such as inclusive fitness theory, Evolutionary Stable Strategy (ESS) theory and bet-hedging theory. The 40-year-old misunderstanding over the meaning of fitness optimization between mathematicians and biologists is explained. Most of the elements required for a general theory have now been implemented, but not together in the same framework, and 'general time' remains to be developed and integrated with the other elements to produce a final unified theory of neo-Darwinian natural selection.

Tobacco point of sale advertising increases positive brand user imagery

PubMed Central

Donovan, R; Jancey, J; Jones, S

2002-01-01

Objectives: To determine the potential impact of point of sale advertising on adolescents so as to inform changes to the Tobacco Control Act. Design: Participants were randomly assigned to one of two conditions. In the control condition, students were exposed to a photograph of a packet of cigarettes; in the intervention condition, students were exposed to an ad for cigarettes, typical of point of sale advertising posters. All students then rated the brand user on a set of 12 bipolar adjectives. Two brands were used in the study: Benson & Hedges, and Marlboro. Subjects: One hundred year (grade) 6 and 7 students (age range 10–12 years), from four Western Australian metropolitan primary schools, participated in the study. Results: In a majority of the brand user descriptions, the cigarette advertisements increased brand user imagery in a positive way, especially for Benson & Hedges. For example, participants viewing the Benson & Hedges advertisement, as distinct from those viewing the Benson & Hedges pack only, were more likely to describe the Benson & Hedges user as relaxed, interesting, cool, rich, adventurous, and classy. Relative to the Marlboro pack only, the Marlboro ad increased positive perceptions of the Marlboro user on adventurous, interesting, and relaxed. Conclusions: The results presented here support restrictions being placed on advertising at point of sale, since such ads have the potential to increase positive brand user imagery directly in the situation where a product purchase can take place, and hence the potential to increase the likelihood of impulse purchasing. PMID:12198267

Delayed bet-hedging resilience strategies under environmental fluctuations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ogura, Masaki; Wakaiki, Masashi; Rubin, Harvey; Preciado, Victor M.

2017-05-01

Many biological populations, such as bacterial colonies, have developed through evolution a protection mechanism, called bet hedging, to increase their probability of survival under stressful environmental fluctuation. In this context, the concept of preadaptation refers to a common type of bet-hedging protection strategy in which a relatively small number of individuals in a population stochastically switch their phenotypes to a dormant metabolic state in which they increase their probability of survival against potential environmental shocks. Hence, if an environmental shock took place at some point in time, preadapted organisms would be better adapted to survive and proliferate once the shock is over. In many biological populations, the mechanisms of preadaptation and proliferation present delays whose influence in the fitness of the population are not well understood. In this paper, we propose a rigorous mathematical framework to analyze the role of delays in both preadaptation and proliferation mechanisms in the survival of biological populations, with an emphasis on bacterial colonies. Our theoretical framework allows us to analytically quantify the average growth rate of a bet-hedging bacterial colony with stochastically delayed reactions with arbitrary precision. We verify the accuracy of the proposed method by numerical simulations and conclude that the growth rate of a bet-hedging population shows a nontrivial dependency on their preadaptation and proliferation delays. Contrary to the current belief, our results show that faster reactions do not, in general, increase the overall fitness of a biological population.

Tobacco point of sale advertising increases positive brand user imagery.

PubMed

Donovan, R J; Jancey, J; Jones, S

2002-09-01

To determine the potential impact of point of sale advertising on adolescents so as to inform changes to the Tobacco Control Act. Participants were randomly assigned to one of two conditions. In the control condition, students were exposed to a photograph of a packet of cigarettes; in the intervention condition, students were exposed to an ad for cigarettes, typical of point of sale advertising posters. All students then rated the brand user on a set of 12 bipolar adjectives. Two brands were used in the study: Benson & Hedges, and Marlboro. One hundred year (grade) 6 and 7 students (age range 10-12 years), from four Western Australian metropolitan primary schools, participated in the study. In a majority of the brand user descriptions, the cigarette advertisements increased brand user imagery in a positive way, especially for Benson & Hedges. For example, participants viewing the Benson & Hedges advertisement, as distinct from those viewing the Benson & Hedges pack only, were more likely to describe the Benson & Hedges user as relaxed, interesting, cool, rich, adventurous, and classy. Relative to the Marlboro pack only, the Marlboro ad increased positive perceptions of the Marlboro user on adventurous, interesting, and relaxed. The results presented here support restrictions being placed on advertising at point of sale, since such ads have the potential to increase positive brand user imagery directly in the situation where a product purchase can take place, and hence the potential to increase the likelihood of impulse purchasing.

Optimal distribution of integration time for intensity measurements in Stokes polarimetry.

PubMed

Li, Xiaobo; Liu, Tiegen; Huang, Bingjing; Song, Zhanjie; Hu, Haofeng

2015-10-19

We consider the typical Stokes polarimetry system, which performs four intensity measurements to estimate a Stokes vector. We show that if the total integration time of intensity measurements is fixed, the variance of the Stokes vector estimator depends on the distribution of the integration time at four intensity measurements. Therefore, by optimizing the distribution of integration time, the variance of the Stokes vector estimator can be decreased. In this paper, we obtain the closed-form solution of the optimal distribution of integration time by employing Lagrange multiplier method. According to the theoretical analysis and real-world experiment, it is shown that the total variance of the Stokes vector estimator can be significantly decreased about 40% in the case discussed in this paper. The method proposed in this paper can effectively decrease the measurement variance and thus statistically improves the measurement accuracy of the polarimetric system.

Optimal distribution of integration time for intensity measurements in degree of linear polarization polarimetry.

PubMed

Li, Xiaobo; Hu, Haofeng; Liu, Tiegen; Huang, Bingjing; Song, Zhanjie

2016-04-04

We consider the degree of linear polarization (DOLP) polarimetry system, which performs two intensity measurements at orthogonal polarization states to estimate DOLP. We show that if the total integration time of intensity measurements is fixed, the variance of the DOLP estimator depends on the distribution of integration time for two intensity measurements. Therefore, by optimizing the distribution of integration time, the variance of the DOLP estimator can be decreased. In this paper, we obtain the closed-form solution of the optimal distribution of integration time in an approximate way by employing Delta method and Lagrange multiplier method. According to the theoretical analyses and real-world experiments, it is shown that the variance of the DOLP estimator can be decreased for any value of DOLP. The method proposed in this paper can effectively decrease the measurement variance and thus statistically improve the measurement accuracy of the polarimetry system.

Radical Negativity: Music Education for Social Justice

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McLaren, Peter

2011-01-01

According to Hedges (2010), the real enemies of the liberal class are radical thinkers such as Noam Chomsky and Ralph Nader, iconoclastic intellectuals who possess the moral autonomy to defy the power elite. While this author agrees with Hedges, he would take this argument even further. In this article, the author argues that the real enemy of…

26 CFR 1.988-5 - Section 988(d) hedging transactions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... qualifying debt instrument does not include accounts payable, accounts receivable or similar items of expense... be made to reflect any gain or loss taken into account. The netting rule of § 1.988-2(b)(8) shall... information— (A) The date the qualifying debt instrument and hedge were entered into; (B) The date the...

Scab severity in relation to hedge pruning pecan trees in the Southeastern USA

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Scab is the most damaging disease of pecan in the Southeastern USA. Pecan trees are tall (up to 30+ m), and managing disease in the upper canopy is problematic. Hedge pruning trees to ~12 m is being explored to facilitate efficacy of ground-based fungicide sprays, but resulting vigorous shoot growth...

The Economics of the Commodity Market Operations.

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-06-01

32 D. HEDGING ........................................................................ 33 E. SPECULATING...Result of Chernobyl’s Nuclear Accident ........................................... 49 It. e -Mr i7s0 I LIST OF FIGURES *4. 1. Example of a Perfect Hedge ...briefly. The reason for this is the power of arbitrage . Arbitrage is the simultaneous purchase of a futures contract in one market against the sale

Hedging, Inflating, and Persuading in L2 Academic Writing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hinkel, Eli

2005-01-01

This study analyzes the types and frequencies of hedges and intensifiers employed in NS and NNS academic essays included in a corpus of L1 and L2 student academic texts (745 essays/220,747 words). The overarching goal of this investigation is to focus on these lexical and syntactic features of written discourse because they effectively lend…

Assessing Learning Control of English Hedges among Tertiary Cantonese-Speaking EFL Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Siu, Fiona Kwai-peng

2014-01-01

This project was designed to try to investigate the difficulties EFL learners would have in learning to use hedging as a rhetorical device in academic writing. The participants were 136 native Cantonese-speaking EFL students who enrolled in the one-year course "English for Academic Purposes" offered by a language centre at a university…

26 CFR 1.446-4 - Hedging transactions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... issuer's yield on an issue of tax-exempt bonds for purposes of the arbitrage restrictions to which § 1... for its entire term is accounted for, solely for purposes of this section, as if it decreased or... hedge at the end of the reasonable period with the gain or loss on the disposed item. For purposes of...

Static vs stochastic optimization: A case study of FTSE Bursa Malaysia sectorial indices

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mamat, Nur Jumaadzan Zaleha; Jaaman, Saiful Hafizah; Ahmad, Rokiah Rozita

2014-06-19

Traditional portfolio optimization methods in the likes of Markowitz' mean-variance model and semi-variance model utilize static expected return and volatility risk from historical data to generate an optimal portfolio. The optimal portfolio may not truly be optimal in reality due to the fact that maximum and minimum values from the data may largely influence the expected return and volatility risk values. This paper considers distributions of assets' return and volatility risk to determine a more realistic optimized portfolio. For illustration purposes, the sectorial indices data in FTSE Bursa Malaysia is employed. The results show that stochastic optimization provides more stablemore » information ratio.« less

Portfolio optimization problem with nonidentical variances of asset returns using statistical mechanical informatics.

PubMed

Shinzato, Takashi

2016-12-01

The portfolio optimization problem in which the variances of the return rates of assets are not identical is analyzed in this paper using the methodology of statistical mechanical informatics, specifically, replica analysis. We defined two characteristic quantities of an optimal portfolio, namely, minimal investment risk and investment concentration, in order to solve the portfolio optimization problem and analytically determined their asymptotical behaviors using replica analysis. Numerical experiments were also performed, and a comparison between the results of our simulation and those obtained via replica analysis validated our proposed method.

Portfolio optimization problem with nonidentical variances of asset returns using statistical mechanical informatics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shinzato, Takashi

2016-12-01

The portfolio optimization problem in which the variances of the return rates of assets are not identical is analyzed in this paper using the methodology of statistical mechanical informatics, specifically, replica analysis. We defined two characteristic quantities of an optimal portfolio, namely, minimal investment risk and investment concentration, in order to solve the portfolio optimization problem and analytically determined their asymptotical behaviors using replica analysis. Numerical experiments were also performed, and a comparison between the results of our simulation and those obtained via replica analysis validated our proposed method.

Planning additional drilling campaign using two-space genetic algorithm: A game theoretical approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumral, Mustafa; Ozer, Umit

2013-03-01

Grade and tonnage are the most important technical uncertainties in mining ventures because of the use of estimations/simulations, which are mostly generated from drill data. Open pit mines are planned and designed on the basis of the blocks representing the entire orebody. Each block has different estimation/simulation variance reflecting uncertainty to some extent. The estimation/simulation realizations are submitted to mine production scheduling process. However, the use of a block model with varying estimation/simulation variances will lead to serious risk in the scheduling. In the medium of multiple simulations, the dispersion variances of blocks can be thought to regard technical uncertainties. However, the dispersion variance cannot handle uncertainty associated with varying estimation/simulation variances of blocks. This paper proposes an approach that generates the configuration of the best additional drilling campaign to generate more homogenous estimation/simulation variances of blocks. In other words, the objective is to find the best drilling configuration in such a way as to minimize grade uncertainty under budget constraint. Uncertainty measure of the optimization process in this paper is interpolation variance, which considers data locations and grades. The problem is expressed as a minmax problem, which focuses on finding the best worst-case performance i.e., minimizing interpolation variance of the block generating maximum interpolation variance. Since the optimization model requires computing the interpolation variances of blocks being simulated/estimated in each iteration, the problem cannot be solved by standard optimization tools. This motivates to use two-space genetic algorithm (GA) approach to solve the problem. The technique has two spaces: feasible drill hole configuration with minimization of interpolation variance and drill hole simulations with maximization of interpolation variance. Two-space interacts to find a minmax solution iteratively. A case study was conducted to demonstrate the performance of approach. The findings showed that the approach could be used to plan a new drilling campaign.

Changes in Free Symptom Attributions in Hypochondriasis after Cognitive Therapy and Exposure Therapy.

PubMed

Schwind, Julia; Neng, Julia M B; Weck, Florian

2016-09-01

Cognitive-behavioural therapy can change dysfunctional symptom attributions in patients with hypochondriasis. Past research has used forced-choice answer formats, such as questionnaires, to assess these misattributions; however, with this approach, idiosyncratic attributions cannot be assessed. Free associations are an important complement to existing approaches that assess symptom attributions. With this study, we contribute to the current literature by using an open-response instrument to investigate changes in freely associated attributions after exposure therapy (ET) and cognitive therapy (CT) compared with a wait list (WL). The current study is a re-examination of a formerly published randomized controlled trial (Weck, Neng, Richtberg, Jakob and Stangier, 2015) that investigated the effectiveness of CT and ET. Seventy-three patients with hypochondriasis were randomly assigned to CT, ET or a WL, and completed a 12-week treatment (or waiting period). Before and after the treatment or waiting period, patients completed an Attribution task in which they had to spontaneously attribute nine common bodily sensations to possible causes in an open-response format. Compared with the WL, both CT and ET reduced the frequency of somatic attributions regarding severe diseases (CT: Hedges's g = 1.12; ET: Hedges's g = 1.03) and increased the frequency of normalizing attributions (CT: Hedges's g = 1.17; ET: Hedges's g = 1.24). Only CT changed the attributions regarding moderate diseases (Hedges's g = 0.69). Changes in somatic attributions regarding mild diseases and psychological attributions were not observed. Both CT and ET are effective for treating freely associated misattributions in patients with hypochondriasis. This study supplements research that used a forced-choice assessment.

Severity of scab and its effects on fruit weight in mechanically hedge-pruned and topped pecan trees

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Scab is the most damaging disease of pecan in the southeastern USA. Pecan trees can attain 44 m in height, so managing disease in the upper canopy is a problem. Fungicide is ordinarily applied using ground-based air-blast sprayers. Although mechanical hedge-pruning and topping of pecan is done for s...

17 CFR Appendix B to Part 75 - Enhanced Minimum Standards for Compliance Programs

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... documentation for market making-related activities conducted in reliance on § 75.4(b) and for hedging activity... activities; iii. The mission (i.e., the type of trading activity, such as market-making, trading in sovereign... market making-related activities under § 75.4 or risk-mitigating hedging activities under § 75.5 so that...

Rhetorical Impact through Hedging Devices in the "Results and Discussion" Part of a Civil Engineering Research Article

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Khamesian, Minoo

2015-01-01

It is common knowledge that hedging devices as a rhetorical technique common in all persuasive writing are considerably important in scientific discourse, for they are tools which facilitate presenting claims or arguments in a polite, acceptable and respectful manner. In addition, they are discoursal resources available to a scientific writer's…

77 FR 44291 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NYSE Arca, Inc.; Order Granting Approval of Proposed Rule Change...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-07-27

... volatility. On the day of the monthly expiration of VIX call options, previously purchased VIX call options are cash-settled, and new VIX call options are purchased at the 10 a.m., Central Time asking price... Index. \\9\\ Tail hedging, in the context used by the Index Provider, is the practice of trying to hedge...

Evaluating the Effects of Input-Based Approaches to the Teaching of Pragmalinguistics and Sociopragmatics in Second Language Pragmatics: A Case of English Request Hedges

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Takimoto, Masahiro

2014-01-01

The present study examined the effects of two types of input-based approaches--combination of pragmalinguistics- and sociopragmatics-focused instruction (CI) and sociopragmatics-focused instruction (SI) on learners' recognizing and producing English request hedges. 45 Japanese learners of English participated in the study. Treatment group…

NS and NNS Scientists' Amendments of Dutch Scientific English and Their Impact on Hedging

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Burrough-Boenisch, Joy

2005-01-01

When 45 biologists from eight countries were asked to critically read and amend the English in Discussion sections of three Dutch-authored draft research papers, many of their alterations impacted on the hedging. This article discusses these alterations. In particular, it focuses on the hotspots in the texts, i.e., the points on which several…

Habitat ephemerality and hatching fractions of a diapausing anostracan (Crustacea: Branchiopoda)

Treesearch

Marie A. Simovich; Thomas E. Philippi; Ellen T. Bauder; Jacob A. Moorad

2005-01-01

Diapause allows aquatic organisms to survive periods of drydown in intermittent pools. However, often not all of the individuals hatch in response to a filling event. This prolonged diapause can be a bet-hedging adaptation to unpredictability in the duration of filling events. Under the simplest bet-hedging model of selection on prolonged diapause, the fraction of eggs...

Variance-Stable R-Estimators.

DTIC Science & Technology

1984-05-01

By means of the concept of change-of variance function we investigate the stability properties of the asymptotic variance of R-estimators. This allows us to construct the optimal V-robust R-estimator that minimizes the asymptotic variance at the model, under the side condition of a bounded change-of variance function. Finally, we discuss the connection between this function and an influence function for two-sample rank tests introduced by Eplett (1980). (Author)

Characteristics of sedimentary organic matter in coastal and depositional areas in the Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winogradow, A.; Pempkowiak, J.

2018-05-01

As organic matter (OM) is readily mineralized to carbon dioxide (Smith and Hollibangh, 1993; Emerson and Hedges, 2002; Szymczycha et al., 2017) it has a direct link to the carbon dioxide abundance in seawater and an indirect influence on the carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere (Emerson and Hedges, 2002; Schulz and Zabel, 2006). OM is a quantitatively minor yet important component of seawater. OM in seawater can originate from internal sources (marine, or planktonic, or autochthonous OM) or external sources (terrestrial, or allochtonous OM) (Maksymowska et al., 2000; Emerson and Hedges, 2002; Turnewitsch et al., 2007; Arndt et al., 2013). It is commonly divided into two fractions: dissolved (DOM) and particulate (POM). Organic carbon (OC) is, most often, used as a measure of OM.

Bistability, epigenetics, and bet-hedging in bacteria.

PubMed

Veening, Jan-Willem; Smits, Wiep Klaas; Kuipers, Oscar P

2008-01-01

Clonal populations of microbial cells often show a high degree of phenotypic variability under homogeneous conditions. Stochastic fluctuations in the cellular components that determine cellular states can cause two distinct subpopulations, a property called bistability. Phenotypic heterogeneity can be readily obtained by interlinking multiple gene regulatory pathways, effectively resulting in a genetic logic-AND gate. Although switching between states can occur within the cells' lifetime, cells can also pass their cellular state over to the next generation by a mechanism known as epigenetic inheritance and thus perpetuate the phenotypic state. Importantly, heterogeneous populations can demonstrate increased fitness compared with homogeneous populations. This suggests that microbial cells employ bet-hedging strategies to maximize survival. Here, we discuss the possible roles of interlinked bistable networks, epigenetic inheritance, and bet-hedging in bacteria.

Optimal allocation of testing resources for statistical simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quintana, Carolina; Millwater, Harry R.; Singh, Gulshan; Golden, Patrick

2015-07-01

Statistical estimates from simulation involve uncertainty caused by the variability in the input random variables due to limited data. Allocating resources to obtain more experimental data of the input variables to better characterize their probability distributions can reduce the variance of statistical estimates. The methodology proposed determines the optimal number of additional experiments required to minimize the variance of the output moments given single or multiple constraints. The method uses multivariate t-distribution and Wishart distribution to generate realizations of the population mean and covariance of the input variables, respectively, given an amount of available data. This method handles independent and correlated random variables. A particle swarm method is used for the optimization. The optimal number of additional experiments per variable depends on the number and variance of the initial data, the influence of the variable in the output function and the cost of each additional experiment. The methodology is demonstrated using a fretting fatigue example.

Fast life history traits promote invasion success in amphibians and reptiles.

PubMed

Allen, William L; Street, Sally E; Capellini, Isabella

2017-02-01

Competing theoretical models make different predictions on which life history strategies facilitate growth of small populations. While 'fast' strategies allow for rapid increase in population size and limit vulnerability to stochastic events, 'slow' strategies and bet-hedging may reduce variance in vital rates in response to stochasticity. We test these predictions using biological invasions since founder alien populations start small, compiling the largest dataset yet of global herpetological introductions and life history traits. Using state-of-the-art phylogenetic comparative methods, we show that successful invaders have fast traits, such as large and frequent clutches, at both establishment and spread stages. These results, together with recent findings in mammals and plants, support 'fast advantage' models and the importance of high potential population growth rate. Conversely, successful alien birds are bet-hedgers. We propose that transient population dynamics and differences in longevity and behavioural flexibility can help reconcile apparently contrasting results across terrestrial vertebrate classes. © 2017 The Authors. Ecology Letters published by CNRS and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Influence of roadside hedgerows on air quality in urban street canyons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gromke, Christof; Jamarkattel, Nabaraj; Ruck, Bodo

2016-08-01

Understanding pollutant dispersion in the urban environment is an important aspect of providing solutions to reduce personal exposure to vehicle emissions. To this end, the dispersion of gaseous traffic pollutants in urban street canyons with roadside hedges was investigated. The study was performed in an atmospheric boundary layer wind tunnel using a reduced-scale (M = 1:150) canyon model with a street-width-to-building-height ratio of W/H = 2 and a street-length-to-building-height ratio of L/H = 10. Various hedge configurations of differing height, permeability and longitudinal segmentation (continuous over street length L or discontinuous with clearings) were investigated. Two arrangements were examined: (i) two eccentric hedgerows sidewise of the main traffic lanes and (ii) one central hedgerow between the main traffic lanes. In addition, selected configurations of low boundary walls, i.e. solid barriers, were examined. For a perpendicular approach wind and in the presence of continuous hedgerows, improvements in air quality in the center area of the street canyon were found in comparison to the hedge-free reference scenario. The pollutant reductions were greater for the central hedge arrangements than for the sidewise arrangements. Area-averaged reductions between 46 and 61% were observed at pedestrian head height level on the leeward side in front of the building for the centrally arranged hedges and between 18 and 39% for the two hedges arranged sidewise. Corresponding area-averaged reductions ranging from 39 to 55% and from 1 to 20% were found at the bottom of the building facades on the leeward side. Improvements were also found in the areas at the lateral canyon ends next to the crossings for the central hedge arrangements. For the sidewise arrangements, increases in traffic pollutants were generally observed. However, since the concentrations in the end areas were considerably lower compared to those in the center area, an overall improvement remained for the street canyon. The configuration of a sidewise arranged discontinuous hedgerow resulted in general in area-averaged increases in concentrations in the range of 3-19%. For a parallel approach wind, reduced concentrations of up to 30% at the facades and up to 60% at pedestrian level were measured with a sidewise continuous hedgerow arrangement. It is concluded that continuous hedgerows can effectively be employed to control concentrations of traffic pollutants in urban street canyons. They can advantageously affect the air quality at street level and can be a significant remedy to the pedestrians' and residents' exposure in the most polluted center area of a street canyon.

Predictors of burnout among correctional mental health professionals.

PubMed

Gallavan, Deanna B; Newman, Jody L

2013-02-01

This study focused on the experience of burnout among a sample of correctional mental health professionals. We examined the relationship of a linear combination of optimism, work family conflict, and attitudes toward prisoners with two dimensions derived from the Maslach Burnout Inventory and the Professional Quality of Life Scale. Initially, three subscales from the Maslach Burnout Inventory and two subscales from the Professional Quality of Life Scale were subjected to principal components analysis with oblimin rotation in order to identify underlying dimensions among the subscales. This procedure resulted in two components accounting for approximately 75% of the variance (r = -.27). The first component was labeled Negative Experience of Work because it seemed to tap the experience of being emotionally spent, detached, and socially avoidant. The second component was labeled Positive Experience of Work and seemed to tap a sense of competence, success, and satisfaction in one's work. Two multiple regression analyses were subsequently conducted, in which Negative Experience of Work and Positive Experience of Work, respectively, were predicted from a linear combination of optimism, work family conflict, and attitudes toward prisoners. In the first analysis, 44% of the variance in Negative Experience of Work was accounted for, with work family conflict and optimism accounting for the most variance. In the second analysis, 24% of the variance in Positive Experience of Work was accounted for, with optimism and attitudes toward prisoners accounting for the most variance.

76 FR 21784 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of Proposed Rule...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-04-18

... solicit comments on the proposed rule change from interested persons. \\1\\ 15 U.S.C. 78s(b)(1). \\2\\ 17 CFR..., all tied hedge transactions (regardless of whether the option order is a simple or complex order) are... simple order the execution of the option leg of a tied hedge transaction does not qualify it for any NBBO...

77 FR 53239 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NYSE Arca, Inc.; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-08-31

... SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION [Release No. 34-67732; File No. SR-NYSEArca-2012-90] Self-Regulatory Organizations; NYSE Arca, Inc.; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of Proposed Rule Change Relating to the First Trust CBOE S&P 500 VIX Tail Hedge Fund (Formerly, the First Trust CBOE VIX Tail Hedge Index Fund) August 27, 2012....

19. Interior of boiler room at Lowe Mill. Builers's plates ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

19. Interior of boiler room at Lowe Mill. Builers's plates on the boiler read The Lowe Manufacturing Co. Made by Hedges-Walsh-Weidner, Chattanooga, Tenn. USA and (at top) The Casey-Hedges Co. Chattanooga, Tenn. USA - Builders. The tank at left may be an expansion or circulating tank. Its plate reads, Patent 1785983 - The Worthingon Company. - Lowe Mill, Eighth Avenue, Southwest, Huntsville, Madison County, AL

26 CFR 1.988-5T - Section 988(d) hedging transactions (temporary).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... terminated (the leg-out date), and any gain or loss (including gain or loss resulting from factors other than... the leg-out date. The spot rate on the leg-out date shall be used to determine exchange gain or loss... gain or loss taken into account. The netting rule of § 1.988-2(b)(8) shall apply. (C) If a hedge has...

26 CFR 1.988-5T - Section 988(d) hedging transactions (temporary).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... terminated (the leg-out date), and any gain or loss (including gain or loss resulting from factors other than... the leg-out date. The spot rate on the leg-out date shall be used to determine exchange gain or loss... gain or loss taken into account. The netting rule of § 1.988-2(b)(8) shall apply. (C) If a hedge has...

Essays on energy derivatives pricing and financial risk management =

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madaleno, Mara Teresa da Silva

This thesis consists of an introductory chapter (essay I) and five more empirical essays on electricity markets and CO2 spot price behaviour, derivatives pricing analysis and hedging. Essay I presents the structure of the thesis and electricity markets functioning and characteristics, as well as the type of products traded, to be analyzed on the following essays. In the second essay we conduct an empirical study on co-movements in electricity markets resorting to wavelet analysis, discussing long-term dynamics and markets integration. Essay three is about hedging performance and multiscale relationships in the German electricity spot and futures markets, also using wavelet analysis. We concentrate the investigation on the relationship between coherence evolution and hedge ratio analysis, on a time-frequency-scale approach, between spot and futures which conditions the effectiveness of the hedging strategy. Essays four, five and six are interrelated between them and with the other two previous essays given the nature of the commodity analyzed, CO2 emission allowances, traded in electricity markets. Relationships between electricity prices, primary energy fuel prices and carbon dioxide permits are analyzed on essay four. The efficiency of the European market for allowances is examined taking into account markets heterogeneity. Essay five analyzes stylized statistical properties of the recent traded asset CO2 emission allowances, for spot and futures returns, examining also the relation linking convenience yield and risk premium, for the German European Energy Exchange (EEX) between October 2005 and October 2009. The study was conducted through empirical estimations of CO2 allowances risk premium, convenience yield, and their relation. Future prices from an ex-post perspective are examined to show evidence for significant negative risk premium, or else a positive forward premium. Finally, essay six analyzes emission allowances futures hedging effectiveness, providing evidence for utility gains increases with investor’s preference over risk. Deregulation of electricity markets has led to higher uncertainty in electricity prices and by presenting these essays we try to shed new lights about structuring, pricing and hedging in this type of markets.

Nalmefene for the management of alcohol dependence: review on its pharmacology, mechanism of action and meta-analysis on its clinical efficacy.

PubMed

Mann, Karl; Torup, Lars; Sørensen, Per; Gual, Antoni; Swift, Robert; Walker, Brendan; van den Brink, Wim

2016-12-01

Nalmefene, a mu- and delta-opioid receptor (MOR, DOR) antagonist and a partial kappa-opioid receptor (KOR) agonist, is approved in the European Union and other countries for the reduction of alcohol consumption in alcohol dependent patients with a high drinking risk level according to WHO ("target population"). This review presents an overview of nalmefene׳s pharmacology, its mechanisms of action and a meta-analysis on its efficacy in reducing alcohol consumption. The review was based on a systematic search of the literature. Random effects meta-analyses were performed on published and unpublished trials directed at drinking reduction using the changes in heavy drinking days (HDDs) and daily total alcohol consumption (TAC) from baseline to the primary endpoint. For each included study and each dose, Hedges' g was used as an unbiased estimator of the standardised mean differences between nalmefene and placebo. Preclinical data suggests that nalmefene counters alcohol-induced dysregulations of the MOR/endorphine and the KOR/dynorphin system. Evidence further suggests that reduced alcohol consumption is an effective treatment strategy that appeals to patients not ready for abstinence. Finally, meta-analyses confirmed the efficacy of 20mg nalmefene for reducing HDDs in the ITT population (Hedge׳s g=-0.20; 95% CI -0.30 to -0.09) and the target population (Hedge׳s g=-0.33; 95% CI -0.48 to -0.18). Similar results were seen for TAC. Several meta-analyses, including this new meta-analysis, support nalmefene׳s efficacy in reducing alcohol consumption. In conclusion, because it does not require abstinence, this treatment has the potential to motivate more patients for treatment and thus helps to address a major public health concern. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. and ECNP. All rights reserved.

Comparison of particle swarm optimization and simulated annealing for locating additional boreholes considering combined variance minimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soltani-Mohammadi, Saeed; Safa, Mohammad; Mokhtari, Hadi

2016-10-01

One of the most important stages in complementary exploration is optimal designing the additional drilling pattern or defining the optimum number and location of additional boreholes. Quite a lot research has been carried out in this regard in which for most of the proposed algorithms, kriging variance minimization as a criterion for uncertainty assessment is defined as objective function and the problem could be solved through optimization methods. Although kriging variance implementation is known to have many advantages in objective function definition, it is not sensitive to local variability. As a result, the only factors evaluated for locating the additional boreholes are initial data configuration and variogram model parameters and the effects of local variability are omitted. In this paper, with the goal of considering the local variability in boundaries uncertainty assessment, the application of combined variance is investigated to define the objective function. Thus in order to verify the applicability of the proposed objective function, it is used to locate the additional boreholes in Esfordi phosphate mine through the implementation of metaheuristic optimization methods such as simulated annealing and particle swarm optimization. Comparison of results from the proposed objective function and conventional methods indicates that the new changes imposed on the objective function has caused the algorithm output to be sensitive to the variations of grade, domain's boundaries and the thickness of mineralization domain. The comparison between the results of different optimization algorithms proved that for the presented case the application of particle swarm optimization is more appropriate than simulated annealing.

Rooting stem cuttings of northern red oak (Quercus rubra L.) utilizing hedged stump sprouts formed on recently felled trees

Treesearch

Matthew H. Gocke; Daniel J. Robinson

2010-01-01

The ability to root stem cuttings collected from hedged stump sprouts formed on recently felled trees was evaluated for 26 codominant northern red oak (Quercus rubra L.) trees growing in Durham County, NC. Sprouting occurred, the same year as felling, on 23 of the 26 tree stumps and sprout number was significantly and positively correlated with stump diameter. The...

Army and Air Force Unmanned Air Reconnaissance: Warrior and Hydra Navigating a Maze of Strategic Hedges

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-06-01

Chambliss; Colonel Michael Stickney; Colonel Eric Mathewson; Lieutenant Colonel Robert Kiebler; Lieutenant Colonel Kenneth Kilmurray; Lieutenant...16 Peter Layton , Group Captain, Royal Air Force, “Hedging Strategies, UCAVs, budgets, and improbable threats,” Armed Forces Journal...10 Colonel Eric Mathewson, US Air Force HAF/A2 DCS ISR, “Air Force ISR in a Changed World: ISR Transformation, the Importance

Hedging against terrorism: Are US businesses prepared?

PubMed

Kahan, Jerome H

2015-01-01

Private US companies face risks in connection with financial matters, but are not necessarily prepared to cope with risks that can seriously disrupt or even halt their operations, notably terrorist attacks and natural disasters. Enhancing the resilience of businesses when dealing with terrorism is especially challenging, as these groups or individuals can adapt tactics to exploit the vulnerabilities of companies they wish to target. Business managers need to formulate flexible preparedness plans that reduce risks from large-scale natural disasters as well as terrorist attacks. In doing so, they can take advantage of post-9/11 US government guidance for these endeavours as well as programmes that eliminate risks to private insurance entities so they can issue policies that cover terrorist strikes of high consequences. Just as business executives use hedging strategies in the world of finance, they also need operational hedging strategies as a means of exploiting as well as lowering the risks surrounding future uncertainties. Resources devoted to planning and hedging are investments that can increase the odds of businesses surviving and thriving, even if they experience high-impact terrorist attacks, threats or large-scale natural disasters, making suppliers, customers and stakeholders happy. The purpose of this paper is to give executives the incentive to take steps to do just that.

Comparing the efficacy of benzodiazepines and serotonergic anti-depressants for adults with generalized anxiety disorder: a meta-analytic review.

PubMed

Gomez, Angelina F; Barthel, Abigail L; Hofmann, Stefan G

2018-06-01

Generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) is a common form of anxiety disorder. Selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs), serotonin and norepinephrine reuptake inhibitors (SNRIs), and benzodiazepines (BZs) are the most commonly prescribed medications for GAD, but little is known about the relative efficacy of these pharmacological treatments. Areas covered: This study provides a meta-analytic review of the efficacy of these medications in the treatment of adults with GAD. A comprehensive literature search yielded 54 articles reporting 56 unique studies with 12,655 participants treated with either pill placebo (6,191 participants), SSRIs (16 trials, 2,712 participants), SNRIs (17 trials, 2,603 participants), or BZs (23 trials, 1,149 participants). The overall combined effect size was modest to moderate (Hedges' g = 0.37, p < 0.0001). Effect sizes decreased significantly over time. SSRIs (Hedges' g = 0.33) and SNRIs (Hedges' g = 0.36) demonstrated significantly lower effect sizes than BZs (Hedges' g = 0.50). These findings were not due to differences in treatment length or publication year. Expert opinion: The results of this study suggest that the most common forms of pharmacotherapy for adult GAD are moderately effective, with BZs being the most effective drug.

Transitions in optimal adaptive strategies for populations in fluctuating environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mayer, Andreas; Mora, Thierry; Rivoire, Olivier; Walczak, Aleksandra M.

2017-09-01

Biological populations are subject to fluctuating environmental conditions. Different adaptive strategies can allow them to cope with these fluctuations: specialization to one particular environmental condition, adoption of a generalist phenotype that compromises between conditions, or population-wise diversification (bet hedging). Which strategy provides the largest selective advantage in the long run depends on the range of accessible phenotypes and the statistics of the environmental fluctuations. Here, we analyze this problem in a simple mathematical model of population growth. First, we review and extend a graphical method to identify the nature of the optimal strategy when the environmental fluctuations are uncorrelated. Temporal correlations in environmental fluctuations open up new strategies that rely on memory but are mathematically challenging to study: We present analytical results to address this challenge. We illustrate our general approach by analyzing optimal adaptive strategies in the presence of trade-offs that constrain the range of accessible phenotypes. Our results extend several previous studies and have applications to a variety of biological phenomena, from antibiotic resistance in bacteria to immune responses in vertebrates.

Big Data Challenges of High-Dimensional Continuous-Time Mean-Variance Portfolio Selection and a Remedy.

PubMed

Chiu, Mei Choi; Pun, Chi Seng; Wong, Hoi Ying

2017-08-01

Investors interested in the global financial market must analyze financial securities internationally. Making an optimal global investment decision involves processing a huge amount of data for a high-dimensional portfolio. This article investigates the big data challenges of two mean-variance optimal portfolios: continuous-time precommitment and constant-rebalancing strategies. We show that both optimized portfolios implemented with the traditional sample estimates converge to the worst performing portfolio when the portfolio size becomes large. The crux of the problem is the estimation error accumulated from the huge dimension of stock data. We then propose a linear programming optimal (LPO) portfolio framework, which applies a constrained ℓ 1 minimization to the theoretical optimal control to mitigate the risk associated with the dimensionality issue. The resulting portfolio becomes a sparse portfolio that selects stocks with a data-driven procedure and hence offers a stable mean-variance portfolio in practice. When the number of observations becomes large, the LPO portfolio converges to the oracle optimal portfolio, which is free of estimation error, even though the number of stocks grows faster than the number of observations. Our numerical and empirical studies demonstrate the superiority of the proposed approach. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Software for the grouped optimal aggregation technique

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, P. M.; Shaw, G. W. (Principal Investigator)

1982-01-01

The grouped optimal aggregation technique produces minimum variance, unbiased estimates of acreage and production for countries, zones (states), or any designated collection of acreage strata. It uses yield predictions, historical acreage information, and direct acreage estimate from satellite data. The acreage strata are grouped in such a way that the ratio model over historical acreage provides a smaller variance than if the model were applied to each individual stratum. An optimal weighting matrix based on historical acreages, provides the link between incomplete direct acreage estimates and the total, current acreage estimate.

Environmental Assessment of Installation Development at Dover Air Force Base, Delaware

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-09-01

matter equal or less than 10 microns in diameter PM2.5 particulate matter equal or less than 2.5 microns in diameter PMP Pest Management Plan POL...migrants), and 9 species of butterflies. Pest species include mosquitoes (Family: Culcidae), groundhog (Marmota monax), skunk (Mephitis mephitis), fox...frog-fruit (Phyla lanceolata), and hyssop-leaf hedge- nettle (Stachys hyssopifolia); however, the green frog-fruit and the hyssop-leaf hedge- nettle are

Prediction Markets: A Review with an Experimentally Based Recommendation for Navy Force-shaping Application

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-12-01

participation problem in which rational traders have no further incentive or desire to trade once they already have hedged their bets (Hanson, 2003...traders who already have hedged their bets in other markets (Abramowicz, 2003, p. 24). A thin market generally leads to comparatively large price...prices. Contract prices should be set at a reasonable level to ensure there is not an overwhelming arbitrage opportunity when the market opens

Effect of Expansion of Fertilization Width on Nitrogen Recovery Rate in Tea Plants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nonaka, Kunihiko; Hirono, Yuhei; Watanabe, Iriki

In cultivation of tea plants, large amounts of nitrogen, compared to amounts used for other crops, have been used for fertilization, resulting in degradation of the soil environment between hedges and an increase in concentrations of nitrate nitrogen in surrounding water systems. To reduce the environmental load, new methods of fertilizer application are needed. This report deals with the effect of expansion of fertilization width on nitrogen recovery rate in tea plants. In the test field, 15 N-labeled ammonium sulfate had been applied over custom fertilization by between-hedges fertilization (fertilization width of 15cm) and wide fertilization (fertilization width of 40cm), nitrogen recovery rates were compared. Expansion of fertilization width resulted in an approximately 30% increase in nitrogen recovery rate compared to that in the case of fertilization between hedges. Increases in nitrogen recovery rates were observed with fallapplied fertilization, spring-applied fertilization, pop-up fertilizer application, and summerapplied fertilization.

Environmental Assessment: Eagle Heights Housing Area Revitalization Dover Air Force Base, Delaware

DTIC Science & Technology

2004-07-01

tidal species. Butterflies were the only insects surveyed, and nine were found on base. Approximately 51 species of birds were recorded on base...Jones River adjacent to the northern border of the housing area, the fro-fruit (Phyla lanceolata) and the hyssop-leaf hedge- nettle (Stachys...other sites in Delaware that this species is found. The hyssop-leaf hedge- nettle thrives in moist sandy soil along the coast and shoreline and occurs

The Significance of Experiences of Nature for People with Parkinson’s Disease, with Special Focus on Freezing of Gait—The Necessity for a Biophilic Environment. A Multi-Method Single Subject Study

PubMed Central

Ottosson, Johan; Lavesson, Lillian; Pinzke, Stefan; Grahn, Patrik

2015-01-01

Freezing of Gait (FOG) is a common condition in people with Parkinson’s disease (PD). FOG entails suddenly experiencing difficulties moving or feeling that one’s feet are as glued to the ground. It is triggered, e.g., when passing through doorways. Earlier studies suggest that being in natural environments affects FOG in a positive way. Five subjects were recruited to serve as five single subject cases. We used interviews, observations, questionnaires and collected gait pattern data with aid of an accelerometer. A special designed outdoor setting was used, where we investigated whether passing through hedge openings with or without built elements triggered FOG. We found that no one experienced a FOG reaction when they passed through hedge openings without built elements. However, FOG was triggered when a doorframe was inserted into a hedge opening, and/or when peripheral vision was blocked. We interpret the results such that the doorframe triggered a phobic reflex, causing a freezing reaction. Passing through hedge openings does not trigger FOG, which we interpret as a biophilic reaction. Our results, if repeated in future studies, may have significance to everyday lives of PD patients, who could get a simpler life by consciously prioritizing stays in natural surroundings. PMID:26132480

Experimental evolution of bet hedging under manipulated environmental uncertainty in Neurospora crassa.

PubMed

Graham, Jeffrey K; Smith, Myron L; Simons, Andrew M

2014-07-22

All organisms are faced with environmental uncertainty. Bet-hedging theory expects unpredictable selection to result in the evolution of traits that maximize the geometric-mean fitness even though such traits appear to be detrimental over the shorter term. Despite the centrality of fitness measures to evolutionary analysis, no direct test of the geometric-mean fitness principle exists. Here, we directly distinguish between predictions of competing fitness maximization principles by testing Cohen's 1966 classic bet-hedging model using the fungus Neurospora crassa. The simple prediction is that propagule dormancy will evolve in proportion to the frequency of 'bad' years, whereas the prediction of the alternative arithmetic-mean principle is the evolution of zero dormancy as long as the expectation of a bad year is less than 0.5. Ascospore dormancy fraction in N. crassa was allowed to evolve under five experimental selection regimes that differed in the frequency of unpredictable 'bad years'. Results were consistent with bet-hedging theory: final dormancy fraction in 12 genetic lineages across 88 independently evolving samples was proportional to the frequency of bad years, and evolved both upwards and downwards as predicted from a range of starting dormancy fractions. These findings suggest that selection results in adaptation to variable rather than to expected environments. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

The efficacy of attentional distraction and sensory monitoring in chronic pain patients: A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Van Ryckeghem, Dimitri Ml; Van Damme, Stefaan; Eccleston, Christopher; Crombez, Geert

2018-02-01

Attentional strategies, such as distraction and sensory monitoring, are often offered to reduce pain and pain-related distress. However, evidence for their efficacy in chronic pain patients is equivocal. We report a meta-analysis on the efficacy of distraction and sensory monitoring in chronic pain patients, and explore possible methodological and theoretical moderators. The scientific literature was searched for relevant articles, which were coded for methodological quality and several theoretical and methodological moderator variables. Only 10 articles fulfilled the search criteria. Eight studies allowed us to compare distraction with a control condition, two studies to compare sensory monitoring with a control condition, and four studies to compare the effect of distraction with the effect of sensory monitoring. Overall, results indicate that distraction did not differ from control in altering pain experience (k=8; Hedges' g=0.10, ns) and distress (k=2; Hedges' g=0.549). Sensory monitoring did also not alter pain experience (k=2; Hedges' g=-0.21, ns) and distress (k=1; Hedges' g=-0.191, ns). We found no evidence to support the superiority of distraction or sensory monitoring in altering pain compared to control conditions. We offer guidance for future theory-driven research to investigate distraction and sensory monitoring in this largely unexplored field, albeit one replete with methodological difficulties. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Does telemedicine improve treatment outcomes for diabetes? A meta-analysis of results from 55 randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Su, Dejun; Zhou, Junmin; Kelley, Megan S; Michaud, Tzeyu L; Siahpush, Mohammad; Kim, Jungyoon; Wilson, Fernando; Stimpson, Jim P; Pagán, José A

2016-06-01

To assess the overall effect of telemedicine on diabetes management and to identify features of telemedicine interventions that are associated with better diabetes management outcomes. Hedges's g was estimated as the summary measure of mean difference in HbA1c between patients with diabetes who went through telemedicine care and those who went through conventional, non-telemedicine care using a random-effects model. Q statistics were calculated to assess if the effect of telemedicine on diabetes management differs by types of diabetes, age groups of patients, duration of intervention, and primary telemedicine approaches used. The analysis included 55 randomized controlled trials with a total of 9258 patients with diabetes, out of which 4607 were randomized to telemedicine groups and 4651 to conventional, non-telemedicine care groups. The results favored telemedicine over conventional care (Hedges's g=-0.48, p<0.001) in diabetes management. The beneficial effect of telemedicine were more pronounced among patients with type 2 diabetes (Hedges's g=-0.63, p<0.001) than among those with type 1 diabetes (Hedges's g=-0.27, p=0.027) (Q=4.25, p=0.04). Compared to conventional care, telemedicine is more effective in improving treatment outcomes for diabetes patients, especially for those with type 2 diabetes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The effect of model uncertainty on some optimal routing problems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mohanty, Bibhu; Cassandras, Christos G.

1991-01-01

The effect of model uncertainties on optimal routing in a system of parallel queues is examined. The uncertainty arises in modeling the service time distribution for the customers (jobs, packets) to be served. For a Poisson arrival process and Bernoulli routing, the optimal mean system delay generally depends on the variance of this distribution. However, as the input traffic load approaches the system capacity the optimal routing assignment and corresponding mean system delay are shown to converge to a variance-invariant point. The implications of these results are examined in the context of gradient-based routing algorithms. An example of a model-independent algorithm using online gradient estimation is also included.

Efficacy of face-to-face versus self-guided treatments for disordered gambling: A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Goslar, Martina; Leibetseder, Max; Muench, Hannah M; Hofmann, Stefan G; Laireiter, Anton-Rupert

2017-06-01

Background and aims In the light of growing traditional and novel forms of gambling, the treatment of disordered gambling is gaining increasing importance and practical relevance. Most studies have examined face-to-face treatments. Although trials implementing self-guided treatments have recently been conducted, these options have not yet been systematically examined. The primary objective of this meta-analysis, therefore, was to analyze the efficacy of all types of psychological face-to-face and self-guided treatments. Methods A multilevel literature search yielded 27 randomized controlled studies totaling 3,879 participants to provide a comprehensive comparative evaluation of the short- and long-term efficacies of face-to-face and self-guided treatments for disordered gambling. Results As expected, the results revealed significantly higher effect sizes for face-to-face treatments (16 studies with Hedges's g ranging from 0.67 to 1.15) as compared with self-guided treatments (11 studies with Hedges's g ranging from 0.12 to 0.30) regarding the reduction of problematic gambling behavior. The intensity of treatment moderated the therapy effect, particularly for self-guided treatments. Discussion and Conclusions The results of this meta-analysis favor face-to-face treatments over self-guided treatments for the reduction of disordered gambling. Although the findings broaden the scope of knowledge about psychological treatment modalities for disordered gambling, further research is needed to identify the reasons for these differences with the goal to optimize the treatment for this disabling condition.

Hierarchical Bayesian Model Averaging for Chance Constrained Remediation Designs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chitsazan, N.; Tsai, F. T.

2012-12-01

Groundwater remediation designs are heavily relying on simulation models which are subjected to various sources of uncertainty in their predictions. To develop a robust remediation design, it is crucial to understand the effect of uncertainty sources. In this research, we introduce a hierarchical Bayesian model averaging (HBMA) framework to segregate and prioritize sources of uncertainty in a multi-layer frame, where each layer targets a source of uncertainty. The HBMA framework provides an insight to uncertainty priorities and propagation. In addition, HBMA allows evaluating model weights in different hierarchy levels and assessing the relative importance of models in each level. To account for uncertainty, we employ a chance constrained (CC) programming for stochastic remediation design. Chance constrained programming was implemented traditionally to account for parameter uncertainty. Recently, many studies suggested that model structure uncertainty is not negligible compared to parameter uncertainty. Using chance constrained programming along with HBMA can provide a rigorous tool for groundwater remediation designs under uncertainty. In this research, the HBMA-CC was applied to a remediation design in a synthetic aquifer. The design was to develop a scavenger well approach to mitigate saltwater intrusion toward production wells. HBMA was employed to assess uncertainties from model structure, parameter estimation and kriging interpolation. An improved harmony search optimization method was used to find the optimal location of the scavenger well. We evaluated prediction variances of chloride concentration at the production wells through the HBMA framework. The results showed that choosing the single best model may lead to a significant error in evaluating prediction variances for two reasons. First, considering the single best model, variances that stem from uncertainty in the model structure will be ignored. Second, considering the best model with non-dominant model weight may underestimate or overestimate prediction variances by ignoring other plausible propositions. Chance constraints allow developing a remediation design with a desirable reliability. However, considering the single best model, the calculated reliability will be different from the desirable reliability. We calculated the reliability of the design for the models at different levels of HBMA. The results showed that by moving toward the top layers of HBMA, the calculated reliability converges to the chosen reliability. We employed the chance constrained optimization along with the HBMA framework to find the optimal location and pumpage for the scavenger well. The results showed that using models at different levels in the HBMA framework, the optimal location of the scavenger well remained the same, but the optimal extraction rate was altered. Thus, we concluded that the optimal pumping rate was sensitive to the prediction variance. Also, the prediction variance was changed by using different extraction rate. Using very high extraction rate will cause prediction variances of chloride concentration at the production wells to approach zero regardless of which HBMA models used.

Not putting all their eggs in one basket: bet-hedging despite extraordinary annual reproductive output of desert tortoises

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lovich, Jeffrey E.; Ennen, Joshua R.; Yackulic, Charles B.; Meyer-Wilkins, Kathie; Agha, Mickey; Loughran, Caleb L.; Bjurlin, Curtis; Austin, Meaghan; Madrak, Sheila V.

2015-01-01

Bet-hedging theory makes the counter-intuitive prediction that, if juvenile survival is low and unpredictable, organisms should consistently reduce short-term reproductive output to minimize the risk of reproductive failure in the long-term. We investigated the long-term reproductive output of an Agassiz's desert tortoise (Gopherus agassizii) population and conformance to a bet-hedging strategy of reproduction in an unpredictable but comparatively productive environment. Most females reproduced every year, even during periods of low precipitation and poor germination of food plants, and the mean percentage of reproducing females did not differ significantly on an annual basis. Although mean annual egg production (clutch size × clutch frequency) differed significantly among years, mean clutch size and mean clutch frequency remained relatively constant. During an El Niño year, mean annual egg production and mean annual clutch frequency were the highest ever reported for this species. Annual egg production was positively influenced by maternal body size but clutch size and clutch frequency were not. Our long-term results confirm earlier conclusions based on short-term research that desert tortoises have a bet-hedging strategy of producing small clutches almost every year. The risk of long-term reproductive failure is minimized in unpredictable environments, both through time by annually producing multiple small clutches over a long reproductive lifespan, even in years of low resource availability, and through space by depositing multiple annual clutches in different locations. The extraordinary annual reproductive output of this population appears to be the result of a typically high but unpredictable biomass of annual food plants at the site relative to tortoise habitat in dryer regions. Under the comparatively productive but unpredictable conditions, tortoises conform to predictions of a bet-hedging strategy of reproduction with relatively small but consistent clutch sizes.

Optimism, well-being, depressive symptoms, and perceived physical health: a study among Stroke survivors.

PubMed

Shifren, Kim; Anzaldi, Kristen

2018-01-01

The investigation of the relation of positive personality characteristics to mental and physical health among Stroke survivors has been a neglected area of research. The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between optimism, well-being, depressive symptoms, and perceived physical health among Stroke survivors. It was hypothesized that Stroke survivors' optimism would explain variance in their physical health above and beyond the variance explained by demographic variables, diagnostic variables, and mental health. One hundred seventy-six Stroke survivors (97 females, 79 males) completed the Revised Life Orientation Test, the Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale, two items on perceived physical health from the 36-item Short Form of the Medical Outcomes study, and the Identity scale of the Illness Perception Questionnaire. Pearson correlations, hierarchical regression analyses, and the PROCESS approach to determining mediators were used to assess hypothesized relations between variables. Stroke survivors' level of optimism explained additional variance in overall health in regression models controlling for demographic and diagnostic variables, and mental health. Analyses revealed that optimism played a partial mediator role between mental health (well-being, depressive symptoms and total score on CES-D) variables and overall health.

Mean-variance model for portfolio optimization with background risk based on uncertainty theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhai, Jia; Bai, Manying

2018-04-01

The aim of this paper is to develop a mean-variance model for portfolio optimization considering the background risk, liquidity and transaction cost based on uncertainty theory. In portfolio selection problem, returns of securities and assets liquidity are assumed as uncertain variables because of incidents or lacking of historical data, which are common in economic and social environment. We provide crisp forms of the model and a hybrid intelligent algorithm to solve it. Under a mean-variance framework, we analyze the portfolio frontier characteristic considering independently additive background risk. In addition, we discuss some effects of background risk and liquidity constraint on the portfolio selection. Finally, we demonstrate the proposed models by numerical simulations.

Probabilistic objective functions for sensor management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahler, Ronald P. S.; Zajic, Tim R.

2004-08-01

This paper continues the investigation of a foundational and yet potentially practical basis for control-theoretic sensor management, using a comprehensive, intuitive, system-level Bayesian paradigm based on finite-set statistics (FISST). In this paper we report our most recent progress, focusing on multistep look-ahead -- i.e., allocation of sensor resources throughout an entire future time-window. We determine future sensor states in the time-window using a "probabilistically natural" sensor management objective function, the posterior expected number of targets (PENT). This objective function is constructed using a new "maxi-PIMS" optimization strategy that hedges against unknowable future observation-collections. PENT is used in conjuction with approximate multitarget filters: the probability hypothesis density (PHD) filter or the multi-hypothesis correlator (MHC) filter.

Alternatives: the right medicine for your portfolio?

PubMed

Doody, Dennis

2006-01-01

Because they often play an active role in developing their portfolio companies' strategies, private capital investment managers can add significant value to companies in their portfolio. The relative inefficiency of private capital markets can give savvy investors an edge that they can not so easily gain in the more efficient public markets. Originally created as a means to reduce volatility, hedge funds should not be seen as the high-risk bets that they are widely perceived to be. Most hedge funds actually are concerned with protecting downside risk.

The true invariant of an arbitrage free portfolio

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmidt, Anatoly B.

2003-03-01

It is shown that the arbitrage free portfolio paradigm being applied to a portfolio with an arbitrary number of shares N allows for the extended solution in which the option price F depends on N. However the resulting stock hedging expense Q= MF (where M is the number of options in the portfolio) does not depend on whether N is treated as an independent variable or as a parameter. Therefore the stock hedging expense is the true invariant of the arbitrage free portfolio paradigm.

Integration of progressive hedging and dual decomposition in stochastic integer programs

DOE PAGES

Watson, Jean -Paul; Guo, Ge; Hackebeil, Gabriel; ...

2015-04-07

We present a method for integrating the Progressive Hedging (PH) algorithm and the Dual Decomposition (DD) algorithm of Carøe and Schultz for stochastic mixed-integer programs. Based on the correspondence between lower bounds obtained with PH and DD, a method to transform weights from PH to Lagrange multipliers in DD is found. Fast progress in early iterations of PH speeds up convergence of DD to an exact solution. As a result, we report computational results on server location and unit commitment instances.

Inverse Optimization: A New Perspective on the Black-Litterman Model.

PubMed

Bertsimas, Dimitris; Gupta, Vishal; Paschalidis, Ioannis Ch

2012-12-11

The Black-Litterman (BL) model is a widely used asset allocation model in the financial industry. In this paper, we provide a new perspective. The key insight is to replace the statistical framework in the original approach with ideas from inverse optimization. This insight allows us to significantly expand the scope and applicability of the BL model. We provide a richer formulation that, unlike the original model, is flexible enough to incorporate investor information on volatility and market dynamics. Equally importantly, our approach allows us to move beyond the traditional mean-variance paradigm of the original model and construct "BL"-type estimators for more general notions of risk such as coherent risk measures. Computationally, we introduce and study two new "BL"-type estimators and their corresponding portfolios: a Mean Variance Inverse Optimization (MV-IO) portfolio and a Robust Mean Variance Inverse Optimization (RMV-IO) portfolio. These two approaches are motivated by ideas from arbitrage pricing theory and volatility uncertainty. Using numerical simulation and historical backtesting, we show that both methods often demonstrate a better risk-reward tradeoff than their BL counterparts and are more robust to incorrect investor views.

Optimized doppler optical coherence tomography for choroidal capillary vasculature imaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Gangjun; Qi, Wenjuan; Yu, Lingfeng; Chen, Zhongping

2011-03-01

In this paper, we analyzed the retinal and choroidal blood vasculature in the posterior segment of the human eye with optimized color Doppler and Doppler variance optical coherence tomography. Depth-resolved structure, color Doppler and Doppler variance images were compared. Blood vessels down to capillary level were able to be obtained with the optimized optical coherence color Doppler and Doppler variance method. For in-vivo imaging of human eyes, bulkmotion induced bulk phase must be identified and removed before using color Doppler method. It was found that the Doppler variance method is not sensitive to bulk motion and the method can be used without removing the bulk phase. A novel, simple and fast segmentation algorithm to indentify retinal pigment epithelium (RPE) was proposed and used to segment the retinal and choroidal layer. The algorithm was based on the detected OCT signal intensity difference between different layers. A spectrometer-based Fourier domain OCT system with a central wavelength of 890 nm and bandwidth of 150nm was used in this study. The 3-dimensional imaging volume contained 120 sequential two dimensional images with 2048 A-lines per image. The total imaging time was 12 seconds and the imaging area was 5x5 mm2.

Uneven Hedging of Economic Risks for a Skilled Workforce: Are Immigrants Disadvantaged?

PubMed Central

Hao, Lingxin; Warkentien, Siri

2015-01-01

Skilled immigration to the United States has been multi-channeled via legislations on permanent and temporary visa programs. This paper argues that skilled immigrants were not disadvantaged during the Great Recession because of a new hedging mechanism, which starts with the federal legislations that admit skilled nonimmigrants, proceeds to vest authority in employers, who perform rigorous screening and selection of temporary workers for future permanency, and ends with greater protection of those selected. To test this mechanism, the paper examines skilled immigrants’ spatial mobility out of the country and their domestic labor market outcomes. The paper presents evidence from analyzing repeated, nationally representative survey data of college graduates in the US using demographic techniques of intra-cohort and inter-cohort analyses. The major findings about the substantial cross-border mobility and high levels of labor force participation among at-entry temporary visa holders who later gained permanent residency provide strong evidence to support our proposed new hedging mechanism. PMID:27605891

Robustness of Quadratic Hedging Strategies in Finance via Backward Stochastic Differential Equations with Jumps

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Di Nunno, Giulia, E-mail: giulian@math.uio.no; Khedher, Asma, E-mail: asma.khedher@tum.de; Vanmaele, Michèle, E-mail: michele.vanmaele@ugent.be

We consider a backward stochastic differential equation with jumps (BSDEJ) which is driven by a Brownian motion and a Poisson random measure. We present two candidate-approximations to this BSDEJ and we prove that the solution of each candidate-approximation converges to the solution of the original BSDEJ in a space which we specify. We use this result to investigate in further detail the consequences of the choice of the model to (partial) hedging in incomplete markets in finance. As an application, we consider models in which the small variations in the price dynamics are modeled with a Poisson random measure withmore » infinite activity and models in which these small variations are modeled with a Brownian motion or are cut off. Using the convergence results on BSDEJs, we show that quadratic hedging strategies are robust towards the approximation of the market prices and we derive an estimation of the model risk.« less

Developing Elementary Teachers' Understandings of Hedges and Personal Pronouns in Inquiry-Based Science Classroom Discourse

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oliveira, Alandeom W.

2010-02-01

This study examined the effectiveness of introducing elementary teachers to the scholarly literature on personal pronouns and hedges in classroom discourse, a professional development strategy adopted during a summer institute to enhance teachers’ social understanding (i.e., their understanding of the social functions of language in science discussions). Teachers became aware of how hedges can be employed to remain neutral toward students’ oral contributions to classroom discussions, invite students to share their opinions and articulate their own ideas, and motivate students to inquire. Teachers recognized that the combined use of I and you can render their feedback authoritative, you can shift the focus from the investigation to students’ competence, and we can lead to authority loss. It is argued that explicitness, reflectivity, and contextualization are essential features of professional development programs aimed at improving teachers’ understandings of the social dimension of inquiry-based science classrooms and preparing teachers to engage in inquiry-based teacher-student interactions.

Effects of 5,14-HEDGE, a 20-HETE mimetic, on lipopolysaccharide-induced changes in MyD88/TAK1/IKKβ/IκB-α/NF-κB pathway and circulating miR-150, miR-223, and miR-297 levels in a rat model of septic shock

PubMed Central

Sari, A. Nihal; Korkmaz, Belma; Serin, Mehmet Sami; Kacan, Meltem; Unsal, Demet; Buharalioglu, C. Kemal; Firat, Seyhan Sahan; Manhati, Vijay L.; Falck, John R.; Malik, Kafait U.; Tunctan, Bahar

2014-01-01

Objectives We have previously demonstrated that a stable synthetic analog of 20-hydroxyeicosatetraenoic acid (20-HETE), N-(20-hydroxyeicosa-5[Z],14[Z]-dienoyl)glycine (5,14-HEDGE), which mimics the effects of endogenously produced 20-HETE, prevents vascular hyporeactivity, hypotension, tachycardia, inflammation, and mortality in a rodent model of septic shock. The present study was performed to determine whether decreased renal and cardiovascular expression and activity of myeloid differentiation factor 88 (MyD88)/transforming growth factor-activated kinase 1 (TAK1)/inhibitor of κB (IκB) kinase β (IKKβ)/IκB-α/nuclear factor-κB (NF-κB) pathway and reduced circulating microRNA (miR)-150, miR-223, and miR-297 expression levels participate in the protective effect of 5,14-HEDGE against hypotension, tachycardia, and inflammation in response to systemic administration of lipopolysaccharide (LPS). Methods Conscious male Wistar rats received saline (4 ml/kg) or LPS (10 mg/kg) at time 0. Blood pressure and heart rate were measured using a tail-cuff device. Separate groups of LPS-treated rats were given 5,14-HEDGE (30 mg/kg) 1 h after injection of saline or LPS. The rats were sacrificed 4 h after LPS challenge and blood, kidney, heart, thoracic aorta, and superior mesenteric artery were collected for measurement of the protein expression. Results LPS-induced fall in blood pressure and rise in heart rate were associated with increased MyD88 expression and phosphorylation of TAK1 and IκB-α in cytosolic fractions of the tissues. LPS also caused an increase in both unphosphorylated and phosphorylated NF-κB p65 proteins in the cytosolic and nuclear fractions as well as nuclear translocation of NF-κB p65. In addition, serum miR-150, miR-223, and miR-297 expression levels were increased in LPS-treated rats. These effects of LPS were prevented by 5,14-HEDGE. Conclusions These results suggest that downregulation of MyD88/TAK1/IKKβ/IκB-α/NF-κB pathway as well as decreased circulating miR-150, miR-223, and miR-297 expression levels participate in the protective effect of 5,14-HEDGE against hypotension, tachycardia, and inflammation in the rat model of septic shock. PMID:24915805

Analytic solution to variance optimization with no short positions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kondor, Imre; Papp, Gábor; Caccioli, Fabio

2017-12-01

We consider the variance portfolio optimization problem with a ban on short selling. We provide an analytical solution by means of the replica method for the case of a portfolio of independent, but not identically distributed, assets. We study the behavior of the solution as a function of the ratio r between the number N of assets and the length T of the time series of returns used to estimate risk. The no-short-selling constraint acts as an asymmetric \

Efficient design of cluster randomized trials with treatment-dependent costs and treatment-dependent unknown variances.

PubMed

van Breukelen, Gerard J P; Candel, Math J J M

2018-06-10

Cluster randomized trials evaluate the effect of a treatment on persons nested within clusters, where treatment is randomly assigned to clusters. Current equations for the optimal sample size at the cluster and person level assume that the outcome variances and/or the study costs are known and homogeneous between treatment arms. This paper presents efficient yet robust designs for cluster randomized trials with treatment-dependent costs and treatment-dependent unknown variances, and compares these with 2 practical designs. First, the maximin design (MMD) is derived, which maximizes the minimum efficiency (minimizes the maximum sampling variance) of the treatment effect estimator over a range of treatment-to-control variance ratios. The MMD is then compared with the optimal design for homogeneous variances and costs (balanced design), and with that for homogeneous variances and treatment-dependent costs (cost-considered design). The results show that the balanced design is the MMD if the treatment-to control cost ratio is the same at both design levels (cluster, person) and within the range for the treatment-to-control variance ratio. It still is highly efficient and better than the cost-considered design if the cost ratio is within the range for the squared variance ratio. Outside that range, the cost-considered design is better and highly efficient, but it is not the MMD. An example shows sample size calculation for the MMD, and the computer code (SPSS and R) is provided as supplementary material. The MMD is recommended for trial planning if the study costs are treatment-dependent and homogeneity of variances cannot be assumed. © 2018 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

On CAPM and Black-Scholes differing risk-return strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCauley, Joseph L.; Gunaratne, Gemunu H.

2003-11-01

In their path-finding 1973 paper, Black and Scholes presented two separate derivations of their famous option pricing partial differential equation. The second derivation was from the standpoint that was Black's original motivation, namely, the capital asset pricing model (CAPM). We show here, in contrast, that the option valuation is not uniquely determined; in particular, strategies based on the delta-hedge and CAPM provide different valuations of an option although both hedges are instantaneouly riskfree. Second, we show explicitly that CAPM is not, as economists claim, an equilibrium theory.

On the Pricing of American Options.

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-05-01

in the construction of a " hedging portfolio" (section 4). In particular, (2.7) and (2.8) imply n-d, i.e., that there exist exactly as many stocks as...called hedging property of the portfolio; we impose it by postulating that the process An t () n t t i At I f.(s)dX + If7o(s)X ii(s)ds fgds +V (3.7) i...European claim: the gains from the portfolio and the gains from the claim should coincide, so that no arbitrage opportunities could exist. Equivalently

Comparison of the Price and Volatility of Current and Alternative Models for the Acquisition of Direct Supply Natural Gas for the Department of Defense

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-06-01

xv DEFINITIONS Arbitrage : Buying a futures month on one exchange and selling the same month on another Exchange by buying both sides...Strategies for Volatile Times” study “…before 2000, energy end users seldom considered hedging practices as a means of protecting themselves against...turned out to be a poor idea, especially since that supplier was Enron. Jon Engers of KTM said, “We recommend that end users do their hedging on a

Ant Colony Optimization for Markowitz Mean-Variance Portfolio Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, Guang-Feng; Lin, Woo-Tsong

This work presents Ant Colony Optimization (ACO), which was initially developed to be a meta-heuristic for combinatorial optimization, for solving the cardinality constraints Markowitz mean-variance portfolio model (nonlinear mixed quadratic programming problem). To our knowledge, an efficient algorithmic solution for this problem has not been proposed until now. Using heuristic algorithms in this case is imperative. Numerical solutions are obtained for five analyses of weekly price data for the following indices for the period March, 1992 to September, 1997: Hang Seng 31 in Hong Kong, DAX 100 in Germany, FTSE 100 in UK, S&P 100 in USA and Nikkei 225 in Japan. The test results indicate that the ACO is much more robust and effective than Particle swarm optimization (PSO), especially for low-risk investment portfolios.

Replica approach to mean-variance portfolio optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varga-Haszonits, Istvan; Caccioli, Fabio; Kondor, Imre

2016-12-01

We consider the problem of mean-variance portfolio optimization for a generic covariance matrix subject to the budget constraint and the constraint for the expected return, with the application of the replica method borrowed from the statistical physics of disordered systems. We find that the replica symmetry of the solution does not need to be assumed, but emerges as the unique solution of the optimization problem. We also check the stability of this solution and find that the eigenvalues of the Hessian are positive for r  =  N/T  <  1, where N is the dimension of the portfolio and T the length of the time series used to estimate the covariance matrix. At the critical point r  =  1 a phase transition is taking place. The out of sample estimation error blows up at this point as 1/(1  -  r), independently of the covariance matrix or the expected return, displaying the universality not only of the critical exponent, but also the critical point. As a conspicuous illustration of the dangers of in-sample estimates, the optimal in-sample variance is found to vanish at the critical point inversely proportional to the divergent estimation error.

Inverse Optimization: A New Perspective on the Black-Litterman Model

PubMed Central

Bertsimas, Dimitris; Gupta, Vishal; Paschalidis, Ioannis Ch.

2014-01-01

The Black-Litterman (BL) model is a widely used asset allocation model in the financial industry. In this paper, we provide a new perspective. The key insight is to replace the statistical framework in the original approach with ideas from inverse optimization. This insight allows us to significantly expand the scope and applicability of the BL model. We provide a richer formulation that, unlike the original model, is flexible enough to incorporate investor information on volatility and market dynamics. Equally importantly, our approach allows us to move beyond the traditional mean-variance paradigm of the original model and construct “BL”-type estimators for more general notions of risk such as coherent risk measures. Computationally, we introduce and study two new “BL”-type estimators and their corresponding portfolios: a Mean Variance Inverse Optimization (MV-IO) portfolio and a Robust Mean Variance Inverse Optimization (RMV-IO) portfolio. These two approaches are motivated by ideas from arbitrage pricing theory and volatility uncertainty. Using numerical simulation and historical backtesting, we show that both methods often demonstrate a better risk-reward tradeoff than their BL counterparts and are more robust to incorrect investor views. PMID:25382873

Assessment of the Apple iPad as a low-vision reading aid.

PubMed

Morrice, E; Johnson, A P; Marinier, J-A; Wittich, W

2017-06-01

PurposeLow-vision clients frequently report having problems with reading. Using magnification, reading performance (as measured by reading speed) can be improved by up to 200%. Current magnification aids can be expensive or bulky; therefore, we explored if the Apple iPad offers comparable performance in improving reading speeds, in comparison with a closed-circuit television (CCTV) video magnifier, or other magnification devices.MethodsWe recruited 100 participants between the ages of 24-97 years, with low vision who were literate and cognitively capable, of whom 57 had age-related macular degeneration. To assess reading, participants read standardized iReST texts and were tested for comprehension. We compared reading speed on the Apple iPad (10 inch) with that of the CCTV, home magnification devices, and baseline measures.ResultsAll assistive devices improved reading rates in comparison to baseline (P<0.001, Hedge's g>1), however, there was no difference in improvement across devices (P>0.05, Hedge's g<0.1). When experience was taken into account, those with iPad experience read, on average, 30 words per minute faster than first time iPad users, whereas CCTV experience did not influence reading speed.ConclusionsIn our sample, the Apple iPad was as effective as currently used technologies for improving reading rates. Moreover, exposure to, and experience with the Apple iPad might increase reading speed with that device. A larger sample size, however, is needed to do subgroup analysis on who would optimally benefit from each type of magnification device.

A meta-analysis of peripheral blood nerve growth factor levels in patients with schizophrenia.

PubMed

Qin, X-Y; Wu, H-T; Cao, C; Loh, Y P; Cheng, Y

2017-09-01

Neurotrophins particularly brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) and nerve growth factor (NGF) are crucial modulators in the neurodevelopment and maintenance of central and peripheral nervous systems. Neurotrophin hypothesis of schizophrenia (SCZ) postulated that the changes in the brains of SCZ patients are the result of disturbances of developing processes involving neurotrophic factors. This hypothesis was mainly supported by the abnormal regulation of BDNF in SCZ, especially the decreased peripheral blood BDNF levels in SCZ patients validated by several meta-analyses. However, the regulation of NGF in SCZ remains unclear because of the inconsistent findings from the clinical studies. Therefore, we undertook, to the best of our knowledge, the first systematic review with a meta-analysis to quantitatively summarize the peripheral blood NGF data in SCZ patients compared with healthy control (HC) subjects. A systematic search of Pubmed, PsycINFO and Web of Science identified 13 articles encompassing a sample of 1693 individuals for the meta-analysis. Random-effects meta-analysis showed that patients with SCZ had significantly decreased peripheral blood levels of NGF when compared with the HC subjects (Hedges's g=-0.633, 95% confidence interval (CI)=-0.948 to -0.318, P<0.001). Subgroup analyses revealed reduced NGF levels both in serum (Hedges's g=-0.671, 95% CI=-1.259 to -0.084, P=0.025) and plasma (Hedges's g=-0.621, 95% CI=-0.980 to -0.261, P<0.001) of the patients, and in drug-free (Hedges's g=-0.670, 95% CI=-1.118 to -0.222, P=0.003) and medicated (Hedges's g=-0.357, 95% CI=-0.592 to -0.123, P=0.003) patients with SCZ. Furthermore, meta-regression analyses showed that age, gender and sample size had no moderating effects on the outcome of the meta-analysis, whereas disease severity might be a confounding factor for the meta-analysis. These results demonstrated that patients with SCZ are accompanied by the decreased peripheral blood NGF levels, strengthening the clinical evidence of an abnormal neurotrophin profile in the patients with SCZ.

flowVS: channel-specific variance stabilization in flow cytometry.

PubMed

Azad, Ariful; Rajwa, Bartek; Pothen, Alex

2016-07-28

Comparing phenotypes of heterogeneous cell populations from multiple biological conditions is at the heart of scientific discovery based on flow cytometry (FC). When the biological signal is measured by the average expression of a biomarker, standard statistical methods require that variance be approximately stabilized in populations to be compared. Since the mean and variance of a cell population are often correlated in fluorescence-based FC measurements, a preprocessing step is needed to stabilize the within-population variances. We present a variance-stabilization algorithm, called flowVS, that removes the mean-variance correlations from cell populations identified in each fluorescence channel. flowVS transforms each channel from all samples of a data set by the inverse hyperbolic sine (asinh) transformation. For each channel, the parameters of the transformation are optimally selected by Bartlett's likelihood-ratio test so that the populations attain homogeneous variances. The optimum parameters are then used to transform the corresponding channels in every sample. flowVS is therefore an explicit variance-stabilization method that stabilizes within-population variances in each channel by evaluating the homoskedasticity of clusters with a likelihood-ratio test. With two publicly available datasets, we show that flowVS removes the mean-variance dependence from raw FC data and makes the within-population variance relatively homogeneous. We demonstrate that alternative transformation techniques such as flowTrans, flowScape, logicle, and FCSTrans might not stabilize variance. Besides flow cytometry, flowVS can also be applied to stabilize variance in microarray data. With a publicly available data set we demonstrate that flowVS performs as well as the VSN software, a state-of-the-art approach developed for microarrays. The homogeneity of variance in cell populations across FC samples is desirable when extracting features uniformly and comparing cell populations with different levels of marker expressions. The newly developed flowVS algorithm solves the variance-stabilization problem in FC and microarrays by optimally transforming data with the help of Bartlett's likelihood-ratio test. On two publicly available FC datasets, flowVS stabilizes within-population variances more evenly than the available transformation and normalization techniques. flowVS-based variance stabilization can help in performing comparison and alignment of phenotypically identical cell populations across different samples. flowVS and the datasets used in this paper are publicly available in Bioconductor.

Cognitive-behavioral therapy for hypochondriasis/health anxiety: a meta-analysis of treatment outcome and moderators.

PubMed

Olatunji, Bunmi O; Kauffman, Brooke Y; Meltzer, Sari; Davis, Michelle L; Smits, Jasper A J; Powers, Mark B

2014-07-01

The present investigation employed meta-analysis to examine the efficacy of cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) for hypochondriasis/health anxiety as well as potential moderators that may be associated with outcome. A literature search revealed 15 comparisons among 13 randomized-controlled trials (RCTs) with a total sample size of 1081 participants that met inclusion criteria. Results indicated that CBT outperformed control conditions on primary outcome measures at post-treatment (Hedges's g = 0.95) and at follow-up (Hedges's g = 0.34). CBT also outperformed control conditions on measures of depression at post-treatment (Hedges's g = 0.64) and at follow-up (Hedges's g = 0.35). Moderator analyses revealed that higher pre-treatment severity of hypochondriasis/health anxiety was associated with greater effect sizes at follow-up visits and depression symptom severity was significantly associated with a lower in effect sizes at post-treatment. Although effect size did not vary as a function of blind assessment, smaller effect sizes were observed for CBT vs. treatment as usual control conditions than for CBT vs. waitlist control. A dose response relationship was also observed, such that a greater number of CBT sessions was associated with larger effect sizes at post-treatment. This review indicates that CBT is efficacious in the treatment of hypochondriasis/health anxiety and identifies potential moderators that are associated with outcome. The implications of these findings for further delineating prognostic and prescriptive indicators of CBT for hypochondriasis/health anxiety are discussed. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Aridity promotes bet hedging via delayed hatching: a case study with two temporary pond crustaceans along a latitudinal gradient.

PubMed

Pinceel, Tom; Vanschoenwinkel, Bram; Hawinkel, Wouter; Tuytens, Karen; Brendonck, Luc

2017-05-01

Climate change does affect not only average rainfall and temperature but also their variation, which can reduce the predictability of suitable conditions for growth and reproduction. This situation is problematic for inhabitants of temporary waters whose reproductive success depends on rainfall and evaporation that determine the length of the aquatic phase. For organisms with long-lived dormant life stages, bet hedging models suggest that a fraction of these should stay dormant during each growing season to buffer against the probability of total reproductive failure in variable environments. Thus far, however, little empirical evidence supports this prediction in aquatic organisms. We study geographic variation in delayed hatching of dormant eggs in natural populations of two crustaceans, Branchinella longirostris and Paralimnadia badia, that occur in temporary rock pools along a 725 km latitudinal aridity gradient in Western Australia. Consistent with bet hedging theory, populations of both species were characterised by delayed hatching under common garden conditions and hatching fractions decreased towards the drier end of the gradient where the probability of reproductive success was shown to be lower. This decrease was most pronounced in the species with the longer maturation time, presumably because it is more sensitive to the higher prevalence of short inundations. Overall, these findings illustrate that regional variation in climate can be reflected in differential investment in bet hedging and hints at a higher importance of delayed hatching to persist when the climate becomes harsher. Such strategies could become exceedingly relevant as determinants of vulnerability under climate change.

The Effect of Post-Exercise Cryotherapy on Recovery Characteristics: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Hohenauer, Erich; Taeymans, Jan; Baeyens, Jean-Pierre; Clarys, Peter; Clijsen, Ron

2015-01-01

The aim of this review and meta-analysis was to critically determine the possible effects of different cooling applications, compared to non-cooling, passive post-exercise strategies, on recovery characteristics after various, exhaustive exercise protocols up to 96 hours (hrs). A total of n = 36 articles were processed in this study. To establish the research question, the PICO-model, according to the PRISMA guidelines was used. The Cochrane's risk of bias tool, which was used for the quality assessment, demonstrated a high risk of performance bias and detection bias. Meta-analyses of subjective characteristics, such as delayed-onset muscle soreness (DOMS) and ratings of perceived exertion (RPE) and objective characteristics like blood plasma markers and blood plasma cytokines, were performed. Pooled data from 27 articles revealed, that cooling and especially cold water immersions affected the symptoms of DOMS significantly, compared to the control conditions after 24 hrs recovery, with a standardized mean difference (Hedges' g) of -0.75 with a 95% confidence interval (CI) of -1.20 to -0.30. This effect remained significant after 48 hrs (Hedges' g: -0.73, 95% CI: -1.20 to -0.26) and 96 hrs (Hedges' g: -0.71, 95% CI: -1.10 to -0.33). A significant difference in lowering the symptoms of RPE could only be observed after 24 hrs of recovery, favouring cooling compared to the control conditions (Hedges' g: -0.95, 95% CI: -1.89 to -0.00). There was no evidence, that cooling affects any objective recovery variable in a significant way during a 96 hrs recovery period.

Online Heterogeneous Transfer by Hedge Ensemble of Offline and Online Decisions.

PubMed

Yan, Yuguang; Wu, Qingyao; Tan, Mingkui; Ng, Michael K; Min, Huaqing; Tsang, Ivor W

2017-10-10

In this paper, we study the online heterogeneous transfer (OHT) learning problem, where the target data of interest arrive in an online manner, while the source data and auxiliary co-occurrence data are from offline sources and can be easily annotated. OHT is very challenging, since the feature spaces of the source and target domains are different. To address this, we propose a novel technique called OHT by hedge ensemble by exploiting both offline knowledge and online knowledge of different domains. To this end, we build an offline decision function based on a heterogeneous similarity that is constructed using labeled source data and unlabeled auxiliary co-occurrence data. After that, an online decision function is learned from the target data. Last, we employ a hedge weighting strategy to combine the offline and online decision functions to exploit knowledge from the source and target domains of different feature spaces. We also provide a theoretical analysis regarding the mistake bounds of the proposed approach. Comprehensive experiments on three real-world data sets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed technique.

The 'side effects' of medicalization: a meta-analytic review of how biogenetic explanations affect stigma.

PubMed

Kvaale, Erlend P; Haslam, Nick; Gottdiener, William H

2013-08-01

Reducing stigma is crucial for facilitating recovery from psychological problems. Viewing these problems biomedically may reduce the tendency to blame affected persons, but critics have cautioned that it could also increase other facets of stigma. We report on the first meta-analytic review of the effects of biogenetic explanations on stigma. A comprehensive search yielded 28 eligible experimental studies. Four separate meta-analyses (Ns=1207-3469) assessed the effects of biogenetic explanations on blame, perceived dangerousness, social distance, and prognostic pessimism. We found that biogenetic explanations reduce blame (Hedges g=-0.324) but induce pessimism (Hedges g=0.263). We also found that biogenetic explanations increase endorsement of the stereotype that people with psychological problems are dangerous (Hedges g=0.198), although this result could reflect publication bias. Finally, we found that biogenetic explanations do not typically affect social distance. Promoting biogenetic explanations to alleviate blame may induce pessimism and set the stage for self-fulfilling prophecies that could hamper recovery from psychological problems. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting Cost and Schedule Growth for Military and Civil Space Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-03-01

the Shapiro-Wilk Test , and testing the residuals for constant variance using the Breusch - Pagan test . For logistic models, diagnostics include...the Breusch - Pagan Test . With this test , a p-value below 0.05 rejects the null hypothesis that the residuals have constant variance. Thus, similar...to the Shapiro- Wilk Test , because the optimal model will have constant variance of its residuals, this requires Breusch - Pagan p-values over 0.05

A Model-Free No-arbitrage Price Bound for Variance Options

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bonnans, J. Frederic, E-mail: frederic.bonnans@inria.fr; Tan Xiaolu, E-mail: xiaolu.tan@polytechnique.edu

2013-08-01

We suggest a numerical approximation for an optimization problem, motivated by its applications in finance to find the model-free no-arbitrage bound of variance options given the marginal distributions of the underlying asset. A first approximation restricts the computation to a bounded domain. Then we propose a gradient projection algorithm together with the finite difference scheme to solve the optimization problem. We prove the general convergence, and derive some convergence rate estimates. Finally, we give some numerical examples to test the efficiency of the algorithm.

Hybrid computer optimization of systems with random parameters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

White, R. C., Jr.

1972-01-01

A hybrid computer Monte Carlo technique for the simulation and optimization of systems with random parameters is presented. The method is applied to the simultaneous optimization of the means and variances of two parameters in the radar-homing missile problem treated by McGhee and Levine.

European option pricing under the Student's t noise with jumps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xiao-Tian; Li, Zhe; Zhuang, Le

2017-03-01

In this paper we present a new approach to price European options under the Student's t noise with jumps. Through the conditional delta hedging strategy and the minimal mean-square-error hedging, a closed-form solution of the European option value is obtained under the incomplete information case. In particular, we propose a Value-at-Risk-type procedure to estimate the volatility parameter σ such that the pricing error is in accord with the risk preferences of investors. In addition, the numerical results of us show that options are not priced in some cases in an incomplete information market.

Dynamics of intracellular information decoding.

PubMed

Kobayashi, Tetsuya J; Kamimura, Atsushi

2011-10-01

A variety of cellular functions are robust even to substantial intrinsic and extrinsic noise in intracellular reactions and the environment that could be strong enough to impair or limit them. In particular, of substantial importance is cellular decision-making in which a cell chooses a fate or behavior on the basis of information conveyed in noisy external signals. For robust decoding, the crucial step is filtering out the noise inevitably added during information transmission. As a minimal and optimal implementation of such an information decoding process, the autocatalytic phosphorylation and autocatalytic dephosphorylation (aPadP) cycle was recently proposed. Here, we analyze the dynamical properties of the aPadP cycle in detail. We describe the dynamical roles of the stationary and short-term responses in determining the efficiency of information decoding and clarify the optimality of the threshold value of the stationary response and its information-theoretical meaning. Furthermore, we investigate the robustness of the aPadP cycle against the receptor inactivation time and intrinsic noise. Finally, we discuss the relationship among information decoding with information-dependent actions, bet-hedging and network modularity.

Analyzing climate change impacts on water resources under uncertainty using an integrated simulation-optimization approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhuang, X. W.; Li, Y. P.; Nie, S.; Fan, Y. R.; Huang, G. H.

2018-01-01

An integrated simulation-optimization (ISO) approach is developed for assessing climate change impacts on water resources. In the ISO, uncertainties presented as both interval numbers and probability distributions can be reflected. Moreover, ISO permits in-depth analyses of various policy scenarios that are associated with different levels of economic consequences when the promised water-allocation targets are violated. A snowmelt-precipitation-driven watershed (Kaidu watershed) in northwest China is selected as the study case for demonstrating the applicability of the proposed method. Results of meteorological projections disclose that the incremental trend of temperature (e.g., minimum and maximum values) and precipitation exist. Results also reveal that (i) the system uncertainties would significantly affect water resources allocation pattern (including target and shortage); (ii) water shortage would be enhanced from 2016 to 2070; and (iii) the more the inflow amount decreases, the higher estimated water shortage rates are. The ISO method is useful for evaluating climate change impacts within a watershed system with complicated uncertainties and helping identify appropriate water resources management strategies hedging against drought.

Cognitive behavioral therapy for anxiety and related disorders: A meta-analysis of randomized placebo-controlled trials.

PubMed

Carpenter, Joseph K; Andrews, Leigh A; Witcraft, Sara M; Powers, Mark B; Smits, Jasper A J; Hofmann, Stefan G

2018-06-01

The purpose of this study was to examine the efficacy of cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) for anxiety-related disorders based on randomized placebo-controlled trials. We included 41 studies that randomly assigned patients (N = 2,843) with acute stress disorder, generalized anxiety disorder (GAD), obsessive compulsive disorder (OCD), panic disorder (PD), posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), or social anxiety disorder (SAD) to CBT or a psychological or pill placebo condition. Findings demonstrated moderate placebo-controlled effects of CBT on target disorder symptoms (Hedges' g = 0.56), and small to moderate effects on other anxiety symptoms (Hedges' g = 0.38), depression (Hedges' g = 0.31), and quality of life (Hedges' g = 0.30). Response rates in CBT compared to placebo were associated with an odds ratio of 2.97. Effects on the target disorder were significantly stronger for completer samples than intent-to-treat samples, and for individuals compared to group CBT in SAD and PTSD studies. Large effect sizes were found for OCD, GAD, and acute stress disorder, and small to moderate effect sizes were found for PTSD, SAD, and PD. In PTSD studies, dropout rates were greater in CBT (29.0%) compared to placebo (17.2%), but no difference in dropout was found across other disorders. Interventions primarily using exposure strategies had larger effect sizes than those using cognitive or cognitive and behavioral techniques, though this difference did not reach significance. Findings demonstrate that CBT is a moderately efficacious treatment for anxiety disorders when compared to placebo. More effective treatments are especially needed for PTSD, SAD, and PD. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Cigarette advertising and onset of smoking in children: questionnaire survey.

PubMed

While, D; Kelly, S; Huang, W; Charlton, A

1996-08-17

To investigate uptake of smoking in a cohort of 11 to 12 year olds related to awareness of advertised cigarette brands named. Self completed questionnaires administered to whole classes of schoolchildren in June 1993 and June 1994. Primary, middle, and secondary schools in the north and south of England. 1450 pupils aged 11 and 12 years at the time of the first survey. Onset of smoking and brands smoked by the second survey related to cigarette brands named in the first one. Less advertised brands were used as the base for calculating odds ratios. Girls who named the most advertised brands-namely, Benson and Hedges alone (odds ratio = 2.50, 95% confidence interval = 1.18 to 5.30) or Benson and Hedges and Silk Cut (2.15, 1.04 to 4.42) in the first survey were at greatest risk of taking up smoking by the second one. The difference was similar but not significant for boys. Boys and girls who named the least advertised brands in the first survey were at no greater risk of taking up smoking by the second survey than those who named no brands (boys odds ratio = 0.49 (0.24 to 1.01); girls 0.79 (0.38 to 1.62)). New smokers were more likely to smoke any available brand (29.5%) or a less advertised brand such as Embassy (24.6%) than the most advertised ones, Benson and Hedges (19.7%) and Silk Cut (14.8%). Established smokers were more selective, only 15% smoking any available brand and 38.3% smoking Benson and Hedges. Cigarette advertising appears to increase children's awareness of smoking at a generic level and encourages them to take up the behaviour, beginning with any cigarettes which are available and affordable.

Rhythmic Auditory Cueing in Motor Rehabilitation for Stroke Patients: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Yoo, Ga Eul; Kim, Soo Ji

2016-01-01

Given the increasing evidence demonstrating the effects of rhythmic auditory cueing for motor rehabilitation of stroke patients, this synthesized analysis is needed in order to improve rehabilitative practice and maximize clinical effectiveness. This study aimed to systematically analyze the literature on rhythmic auditory cueing for motor rehabilitation of stroke patients by highlighting the outcome variables, type of cueing, and stage of stroke. A systematic review with meta-analysis of randomized controlled or clinically controlled trials was conducted. Electronic databases and music therapy journals were searched for studies including stroke, the use of rhythmic auditory cueing, and motor outcomes, such as gait and upper-extremity function. A total of 10 studies (RCT or CCT) with 356 individuals were included for meta-analysis. There were large effect sizes (Hedges's g = 0.984 for walking velocity; Hedges's g = 0.840 for cadence; Hedges's g = 0.760 for stride length; and Hedges's g = 0.456 for Fugl-Meyer test scores) in the use of rhythmic auditory cueing. Additional subgroup analysis demonstrated that although the type of rhythmic cueing and stage of stroke did not lead to statistically substantial group differences, the effect sizes and heterogeneity values in each subgroup implied possible differences in treatment effect. This study corroborates the beneficial effects of rhythmic auditory cueing, supporting its expanded application to broadened areas of rehabilitation for stroke patients. Also, it suggests the future investigation of the differential outcomes depending on how rhythmic auditory cueing is provided in terms of type and intensity implemented. © the American Music Therapy Association 2016. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Systematic review and meta-analysis of non RCT's on health related quality of life after radical cystectomy using validated questionnaires: Better results with orthotopic neobladder versus ileal conduit.

PubMed

Cerruto, M A; D'Elia, C; Siracusano, S; Gedeshi, X; Mariotto, A; Iafrate, M; Niero, M; Lonardi, C; Bassi, P; Belgrano, E; Imbimbo, C; Racioppi, M; Talamini, R; Ciciliato, S; Toffoli, L; Rizzo, M; Visalli, F; Verze, P; Artibani, W

2016-03-01

The current literature on the impact of different urinary diversions on patients' health related quality of life (HR-QoL) showed a marginally better quality of life scores of orthotopic neobladder (ONB) compared to ileal conduit (IC). The aim of this study was to update the review of all relevant published studies on the comparison between ONB and IC. Studies were identified by searching multiple literature databases, including MEDLINE, CINAHL, the Cochrane Library, PubMed Data were synthesized using meta-analytic methods conformed to the PRISMA statement. The current meta-analysis was based on 18 papers that reported a HR-QoL comparison between IC and ONB using at least a validate questionnaire. Pooled effect sizes of combined QoL outcomes for IC versus ONB showed a slight, but not significant, better QoL in patients with ONB (Hedges' g = 0.150; p = 0.066). Patients with ileal ONB showed a significant better QoL than those with IC (Hedges' g = 0.278; p = 0.000); in case series with more than 65% males, ONB group showed a slight significant better QoL than IC (Hedges' g = 0.190; p = 0.024). Pooled effects sizes of all EORTC-QLQ-C30 aspects showed a significant better QoL in patients with ONB (Hedges' g = 0.400; p = 0.0000). This meta-analysis of not-randomized comparative studies on the impact of different types of urinary diversions on HR-QoL showed demonstrated a significant advantage of ileal ONB compared to IC in terms of HR-QoL. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Stress and eating behaviors in children and adolescents: Systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Hill, Deborah C; Moss, Rachael H; Sykes-Muskett, Bianca; Conner, Mark; O'Connor, Daryl B

2018-04-01

It is well established that stress is linked to changes in eating behaviors. Research using adult populations has shown that stress is associated with both increases and decreases in the amount and type of food consumed. However, due to a lack of research reviews, the relationship between stress and eating behaviors in children is unclear. This systematic research review and meta-analysis aimed to identify whether stress is associated with healthy and unhealthy eating behaviors in children aged 8-18 years. Studies were included in the review if they measured stress and included a measure of food consumption. All unique studies retrieved (N = 28,070) were assessed for their eligibility at title, abstract and full text levels. A total of 13 studies were included in the final review and data were analysed using Comprehensive Meta-Analysis. Using random-effects modelling, overall stress was not associated with a change in overall eating behaviors. However, additional analyses indicated stress was associated with unhealthy eating behaviors in both younger (Hedge's g = 0.283, p < 0.001) and older (Hedge's g = 0.274, p = 0.001) children. In contrast, stress was not associated with healthy eating behaviors in younger children (Hedge's g = 0.093, p = 0.156), but was negatively associated with healthy eating behaviors in older children (Hedge's g = -0.384, p < 0.001). The current findings are concerning as they suggest the impact of stress on unhealthy eating may begin as early as 8 or 9 years old. Future research ought to investigate further the role of psychological, behavioral and endocrine factors in the development of stress-related eating in children. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Inability of infants to push up in the prone position and subsequent development.

PubMed

Senju, Ayako; Shimono, Masayuki; Tsuji, Mayumi; Suga, Reiko; Shibata, Eiji; Fujino, Yoshihisa; Kawamoto, Toshihiro; Kusuhara, Koichi

2018-06-14

During routine health screenings, pediatricians may note that some infants cannot maintain the prone position with an extended arm support at 6 months. However, little is known regarding the development of full-term infants with this developmental deviation. We investigated the developmental course of infants exhibiting this characteristic. We included 2020 full-term infants from a regional center for the Japan Environment and Children's Study. Their development was measured using the Ages and Stages Questionnaire, Third Edition, at 0.5, 1, 1.5, 2, 2.5, and 3 years. The children were grouped according to their ability to stay prone on extended arms at 6 months, and their development was compared. The questionnaire revealed that 1625 infants could stay prone on extended arms and 179 could not. We excluded 212 infants who could stay prone on extended arms only sometimes, and four did not respond. In the Gross Motor domain, significant difference in questionnaire scores was observed between the "could" and "could-not" groups at 6 months (Hedges' g 1.83) and persisted until 3 years (Hedges' g 0.33). Significant differences were also observed in the Communication, Fine Motor, Problem Solving, and Personal-Social domains at 6 months (Hedges' g 0.20-0.58) and persisted until 1, 2, 2, and 1.5 years, respectively (Hedges' g 0.21-0.25). Infants who cannot maintain the prone position on extended arms lag behind those who can, although the effect sizes become relatively small after 1.5 years of age. Early interventions may be considered if delays are problematic or persistent. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Teleportation of squeezing: Optimization using non-Gaussian resources

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dell'Anno, Fabio; De Siena, Silvio; Illuminati, Fabrizio

2010-12-15

We study the continuous-variable quantum teleportation of states, statistical moments of observables, and scale parameters such as squeezing. We investigate the problem both in ideal and imperfect Vaidman-Braunstein-Kimble protocol setups. We show how the teleportation fidelity is maximized and the difference between output and input variances is minimized by using suitably optimized entangled resources. Specifically, we consider the teleportation of coherent squeezed states, exploiting squeezed Bell states as entangled resources. This class of non-Gaussian states, introduced by Illuminati and co-workers [F. Dell'Anno, S. De Siena, L. Albano, and F. Illuminati, Phys. Rev. A 76, 022301 (2007); F. Dell'Anno, S. Demore » Siena, and F. Illuminati, ibid. 81, 012333 (2010)], includes photon-added and photon-subtracted squeezed states as special cases. At variance with the case of entangled Gaussian resources, the use of entangled non-Gaussian squeezed Bell resources allows one to choose different optimization procedures that lead to inequivalent results. Performing two independent optimization procedures, one can either maximize the state teleportation fidelity, or minimize the difference between input and output quadrature variances. The two different procedures are compared depending on the degrees of displacement and squeezing of the input states and on the working conditions in ideal and nonideal setups.« less

Optimizing Air Transportation Service to Metroplex Airports. Par 2; Analysis Using the Airline Schedule Optimization Model (ASOM)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Donoue, George; Hoffman, Karla; Sherry, Lance; Ferguson, John; Kara, Abdul Qadar

2010-01-01

The air transportation system is a significant driver of the U.S. economy, providing safe, affordable, and rapid transportation. During the past three decades airspace and airport capacity has not grown in step with demand for air transportation; the failure to increase capacity at the same rate as the growth in demand results in unreliable service and systemic delay. This report describes the results of an analysis of airline strategic decision-making that affects geographic access, economic access, and airline finances, extending the analysis of these factors using historic data (from Part 1 of the report). The Airline Schedule Optimization Model (ASOM) was used to evaluate how exogenous factors (passenger demand, airline operating costs, and airport capacity limits) affect geographic access (markets-served, scheduled flights, aircraft size), economic access (airfares), airline finances (profit), and air transportation efficiency (aircraft size). This analysis captures the impact of the implementation of airport capacity limits, as well as the effect of increased hedged fuel prices, which serve as a proxy for increased costs per flight that might occur if auctions or congestion pricing are imposed; also incorporated are demand elasticity curves based on historical data that provide information about how passenger demand is affected by airfare changes.

Mean-variance portfolio optimization by using time series approaches based on logarithmic utility function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soeryana, E.; Fadhlina, N.; Sukono; Rusyaman, E.; Supian, S.

2017-01-01

Investments in stocks investors are also faced with the issue of risk, due to daily price of stock also fluctuate. For minimize the level of risk, investors usually forming an investment portfolio. Establishment of a portfolio consisting of several stocks are intended to get the optimal composition of the investment portfolio. This paper discussed about optimizing investment portfolio of Mean-Variance to stocks by using mean and volatility is not constant based on logarithmic utility function. Non constant mean analysed using models Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA), while non constant volatility models are analysed using the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH). Optimization process is performed by using the Lagrangian multiplier technique. As a numerical illustration, the method is used to analyse some Islamic stocks in Indonesia. The expected result is to get the proportion of investment in each Islamic stock analysed.

Mean-Variance portfolio optimization by using non constant mean and volatility based on the negative exponential utility function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soeryana, Endang; Halim, Nurfadhlina Bt Abdul; Sukono, Rusyaman, Endang; Supian, Sudradjat

2017-03-01

Investments in stocks investors are also faced with the issue of risk, due to daily price of stock also fluctuate. For minimize the level of risk, investors usually forming an investment portfolio. Establishment of a portfolio consisting of several stocks are intended to get the optimal composition of the investment portfolio. This paper discussed about optimizing investment portfolio of Mean-Variance to stocks by using mean and volatility is not constant based on the Negative Exponential Utility Function. Non constant mean analyzed using models Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA), while non constant volatility models are analyzed using the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH). Optimization process is performed by using the Lagrangian multiplier technique. As a numerical illustration, the method is used to analyze some stocks in Indonesia. The expected result is to get the proportion of investment in each stock analyzed

Quantifying noise in optical tweezers by allan variance.

PubMed

Czerwinski, Fabian; Richardson, Andrew C; Oddershede, Lene B

2009-07-20

Much effort is put into minimizing noise in optical tweezers experiments because noise and drift can mask fundamental behaviours of, e.g., single molecule assays. Various initiatives have been taken to reduce or eliminate noise but it has been difficult to quantify their effect. We propose to use Allan variance as a simple and efficient method to quantify noise in optical tweezers setups.We apply the method to determine the optimal measurement time, frequency, and detection scheme, and quantify the effect of acoustic noise in the lab. The method can also be used on-the-fly for determining optimal parameters of running experiments.

Markowitz portfolio optimization model employing fuzzy measure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramli, Suhailywati; Jaaman, Saiful Hafizah

2017-04-01

Markowitz in 1952 introduced the mean-variance methodology for the portfolio selection problems. His pioneering research has shaped the portfolio risk-return model and become one of the most important research fields in modern finance. This paper extends the classical Markowitz's mean-variance portfolio selection model applying the fuzzy measure to determine the risk and return. In this paper, we apply the original mean-variance model as a benchmark, fuzzy mean-variance model with fuzzy return and the model with return are modeled by specific types of fuzzy number for comparison. The model with fuzzy approach gives better performance as compared to the mean-variance approach. The numerical examples are included to illustrate these models by employing Malaysian share market data.

Optimal two-phase sampling design for comparing accuracies of two binary classification rules.

PubMed

Xu, Huiping; Hui, Siu L; Grannis, Shaun

2014-02-10

In this paper, we consider the design for comparing the performance of two binary classification rules, for example, two record linkage algorithms or two screening tests. Statistical methods are well developed for comparing these accuracy measures when the gold standard is available for every unit in the sample, or in a two-phase study when the gold standard is ascertained only in the second phase in a subsample using a fixed sampling scheme. However, these methods do not attempt to optimize the sampling scheme to minimize the variance of the estimators of interest. In comparing the performance of two classification rules, the parameters of primary interest are the difference in sensitivities, specificities, and positive predictive values. We derived the analytic variance formulas for these parameter estimates and used them to obtain the optimal sampling design. The efficiency of the optimal sampling design is evaluated through an empirical investigation that compares the optimal sampling with simple random sampling and with proportional allocation. Results of the empirical study show that the optimal sampling design is similar for estimating the difference in sensitivities and in specificities, and both achieve a substantial amount of variance reduction with an over-sample of subjects with discordant results and under-sample of subjects with concordant results. A heuristic rule is recommended when there is no prior knowledge of individual sensitivities and specificities, or the prevalence of the true positive findings in the study population. The optimal sampling is applied to a real-world example in record linkage to evaluate the difference in classification accuracy of two matching algorithms. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Unification theory of optimal life histories and linear demographic models in internal stochasticity.

PubMed

Oizumi, Ryo

2014-01-01

Life history of organisms is exposed to uncertainty generated by internal and external stochasticities. Internal stochasticity is generated by the randomness in each individual life history, such as randomness in food intake, genetic character and size growth rate, whereas external stochasticity is due to the environment. For instance, it is known that the external stochasticity tends to affect population growth rate negatively. It has been shown in a recent theoretical study using path-integral formulation in structured linear demographic models that internal stochasticity can affect population growth rate positively or negatively. However, internal stochasticity has not been the main subject of researches. Taking account of effect of internal stochasticity on the population growth rate, the fittest organism has the optimal control of life history affected by the stochasticity in the habitat. The study of this control is known as the optimal life schedule problems. In order to analyze the optimal control under internal stochasticity, we need to make use of "Stochastic Control Theory" in the optimal life schedule problem. There is, however, no such kind of theory unifying optimal life history and internal stochasticity. This study focuses on an extension of optimal life schedule problems to unify control theory of internal stochasticity into linear demographic models. First, we show the relationship between the general age-states linear demographic models and the stochastic control theory via several mathematical formulations, such as path-integral, integral equation, and transition matrix. Secondly, we apply our theory to a two-resource utilization model for two different breeding systems: semelparity and iteroparity. Finally, we show that the diversity of resources is important for species in a case. Our study shows that this unification theory can address risk hedges of life history in general age-states linear demographic models.

Unification Theory of Optimal Life Histories and Linear Demographic Models in Internal Stochasticity

PubMed Central

Oizumi, Ryo

2014-01-01

Life history of organisms is exposed to uncertainty generated by internal and external stochasticities. Internal stochasticity is generated by the randomness in each individual life history, such as randomness in food intake, genetic character and size growth rate, whereas external stochasticity is due to the environment. For instance, it is known that the external stochasticity tends to affect population growth rate negatively. It has been shown in a recent theoretical study using path-integral formulation in structured linear demographic models that internal stochasticity can affect population growth rate positively or negatively. However, internal stochasticity has not been the main subject of researches. Taking account of effect of internal stochasticity on the population growth rate, the fittest organism has the optimal control of life history affected by the stochasticity in the habitat. The study of this control is known as the optimal life schedule problems. In order to analyze the optimal control under internal stochasticity, we need to make use of “Stochastic Control Theory” in the optimal life schedule problem. There is, however, no such kind of theory unifying optimal life history and internal stochasticity. This study focuses on an extension of optimal life schedule problems to unify control theory of internal stochasticity into linear demographic models. First, we show the relationship between the general age-states linear demographic models and the stochastic control theory via several mathematical formulations, such as path–integral, integral equation, and transition matrix. Secondly, we apply our theory to a two-resource utilization model for two different breeding systems: semelparity and iteroparity. Finally, we show that the diversity of resources is important for species in a case. Our study shows that this unification theory can address risk hedges of life history in general age-states linear demographic models. PMID:24945258

Obtaining lower bounds from the progressive hedging algorithm for stochastic mixed-integer programs

DOE PAGES

Gade, Dinakar; Hackebeil, Gabriel; Ryan, Sarah M.; ...

2016-04-02

We present a method for computing lower bounds in the progressive hedging algorithm (PHA) for two-stage and multi-stage stochastic mixed-integer programs. Computing lower bounds in the PHA allows one to assess the quality of the solutions generated by the algorithm contemporaneously. The lower bounds can be computed in any iteration of the algorithm by using dual prices that are calculated during execution of the standard PHA. In conclusion, we report computational results on stochastic unit commitment and stochastic server location problem instances, and explore the relationship between key PHA parameters and the quality of the resulting lower bounds.

Defense Science Board Summer Study on Strategic Surprise

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-07-01

actions and hedges against changing priorities. The study focused on potential regrets in eight areas and provides recommendations to avoid ... avoid   potential  regrets  in 2024.  A Changing Context for Operations  The study explored current and future operational contexts. The study defined...hedge against these and similar surprises—and to  avoid   regretting  actions or lack  of action taken today—the study evaluated several key mission and

A meta-analytic investigation of the impact of mindfulness-based interventions on post traumatic stress.

PubMed

Hopwood, Tanya L; Schutte, Nicola S

2017-11-01

A number of studies have investigated the impact of mindfulness-based interventions on symptoms of post-traumatic stress (PTSD) compared to control conditions. The current meta-analysis consolidated findings from 18 studies reporting results for 21 samples of participants. Across studies, mindfulness-based treatments compared to control conditions were effective in ameliorating symptoms of PTSD, with Hedges' g=-0.44. Hedges' g was -0.59 for comparison of mindfulness-based interventions to waitlist control conditions. Changes in mindfulness may underpin the effect of mindfulness-based interventions on PTSD symptoms and thus the meta-analysis examined findings regarding increases in mindfulness. The 12 studies that assessed mindfulness found that the interventions significantly increased mindfulness, Hedges' g=0.52. Moderator analyses indicated that interventions with longer mindfulness training were more efficacious in reducing symptoms of PTSD. Across studies, gender, age, veteran status, or length of time between the intervention and assessment of PTSD symptoms did not moderate the impact of mindfulness-based interventions. The results provide a foundation for future research directions and have implications for work with those impacted by trauma. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

The financial management of catastrophic flood risks in emerging-economy countries.

PubMed

Kunreuther, Howard C; Linnerooth-Bayer, Joanne

2003-06-01

This article examines the potential of pre- and post-disaster instruments for funding disaster response and recovery and for creating incentives for flood loss mitigation in countries with emerging or transition economies. As a concrete case, we discuss the disaster recovery arrangements following the 1997 flood disaster in Poland. We examine the advantages and limitations of hedging instruments, which are instruments for transferring the risk to investors either through insurance or capital market-based securities. We compare these mechanisms with financing instruments whereby the government sets aside funds prior to a disaster or taps its own funding sources after the event occurs. We show how hedging instruments can be designed to create incentives for the mitigation of damage to public infrastructure using the flood proofing of a water-treatment plant on the hypothetical Topping River as an illustrative example. We conclude that hedging instruments can be an attractive alternative to financing instruments that have been traditionally used in the poorer, emerging-economy countries to fund disaster recovery. Since very poor countries are likely to have difficulty paying the price of protection prior to a disaster, we suggest that international lending institutions consider innovations for subsidizing these payments.

Episodic and working memory function in Primary Progressive Aphasia: A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Eikelboom, Willem S; Janssen, Nikki; Jiskoot, Lize C; van den Berg, Esther; Roelofs, Ardi; Kessels, Roy P C

2018-06-18

The distinction between Primary Progressive Aphasia (PPA) variants remains challenging for clinicians, especially for the non-fluent (nfv-PPA) and the logopenic variants (lv-PPA). Previous research suggests that memory tests might aid this differentiation. This meta-analysis compares memory function among PPA variants. Effects sizes were extracted from 41 studies (N = 849). Random-effects models were used to compare performance on episodic and working memory tests among PPA patients and healthy controls, and between the PPA variants. Memory deficits were frequently observed in PPA compared to controls, with large effect sizes for lv-PPA (Hedges' g = -2.04 [-2.58 to -1.49]), nfv-PPA (Hedges' g = -1.34 [-1.69 to -1.00]), and the semantic variant (sv-PPA; Hedges' g = -1.23 [-1.50 to -0.97]). Sv-PPA showed primarily verbal memory deficits, whereas lv-PPA showed worse performance than nfv-PPA on both verbal and non-verbal memory tests. Memory deficits were more pronounced in lv-PPA compared to nfv-PPA. This suggests that memory tests may be helpful to distinguish between these PPA variants. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Bet-hedging as a complex interaction among developmental instability, environmental heterogeneity, dispersal, and life-history strategy.

PubMed

Scheiner, Samuel M

2014-02-01

One potential evolutionary response to environmental heterogeneity is the production of randomly variable offspring through developmental instability, a type of bet-hedging. I used an individual-based, genetically explicit model to examine the evolution of developmental instability. The model considered both temporal and spatial heterogeneity alone and in combination, the effect of migration pattern (stepping stone vs. island), and life-history strategy. I confirmed that temporal heterogeneity alone requires a threshold amount of variation to select for a substantial amount of developmental instability. For spatial heterogeneity only, the response to selection on developmental instability depended on the life-history strategy and the form and pattern of dispersal with the greatest response for island migration when selection occurred before dispersal. Both spatial and temporal variation alone select for similar amounts of instability, but in combination resulted in substantially more instability than either alone. Local adaptation traded off against bet-hedging, but not in a simple linear fashion. I found higher-order interactions between life-history patterns, dispersal rates, dispersal patterns, and environmental heterogeneity that are not explainable by simple intuition. We need additional modeling efforts to understand these interactions and empirical tests that explicitly account for all of these factors.

Efficient prediction designs for random fields.

PubMed

Müller, Werner G; Pronzato, Luc; Rendas, Joao; Waldl, Helmut

2015-03-01

For estimation and predictions of random fields, it is increasingly acknowledged that the kriging variance may be a poor representative of true uncertainty. Experimental designs based on more elaborate criteria that are appropriate for empirical kriging (EK) are then often non-space-filling and very costly to determine. In this paper, we investigate the possibility of using a compound criterion inspired by an equivalence theorem type relation to build designs quasi-optimal for the EK variance when space-filling designs become unsuitable. Two algorithms are proposed, one relying on stochastic optimization to explicitly identify the Pareto front, whereas the second uses the surrogate criteria as local heuristic to choose the points at which the (costly) true EK variance is effectively computed. We illustrate the performance of the algorithms presented on both a simple simulated example and a real oceanographic dataset. © 2014 The Authors. Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Control algorithms for dynamic attenuators.

PubMed

Hsieh, Scott S; Pelc, Norbert J

2014-06-01

The authors describe algorithms to control dynamic attenuators in CT and compare their performance using simulated scans. Dynamic attenuators are prepatient beam shaping filters that modulate the distribution of x-ray fluence incident on the patient on a view-by-view basis. These attenuators can reduce dose while improving key image quality metrics such as peak or mean variance. In each view, the attenuator presents several degrees of freedom which may be individually adjusted. The total number of degrees of freedom across all views is very large, making many optimization techniques impractical. The authors develop a theory for optimally controlling these attenuators. Special attention is paid to a theoretically perfect attenuator which controls the fluence for each ray individually, but the authors also investigate and compare three other, practical attenuator designs which have been previously proposed: the piecewise-linear attenuator, the translating attenuator, and the double wedge attenuator. The authors pose and solve the optimization problems of minimizing the mean and peak variance subject to a fixed dose limit. For a perfect attenuator and mean variance minimization, this problem can be solved in simple, closed form. For other attenuator designs, the problem can be decomposed into separate problems for each view to greatly reduce the computational complexity. Peak variance minimization can be approximately solved using iterated, weighted mean variance (WMV) minimization. Also, the authors develop heuristics for the perfect and piecewise-linear attenuators which do not require a priori knowledge of the patient anatomy. The authors compare these control algorithms on different types of dynamic attenuators using simulated raw data from forward projected DICOM files of a thorax and an abdomen. The translating and double wedge attenuators reduce dose by an average of 30% relative to current techniques (bowtie filter with tube current modulation) without increasing peak variance. The 15-element piecewise-linear dynamic attenuator reduces dose by an average of 42%, and the perfect attenuator reduces dose by an average of 50%. Improvements in peak variance are several times larger than improvements in mean variance. Heuristic control eliminates the need for a prescan. For the piecewise-linear attenuator, the cost of heuristic control is an increase in dose of 9%. The proposed iterated WMV minimization produces results that are within a few percent of the true solution. Dynamic attenuators show potential for significant dose reduction. A wide class of dynamic attenuators can be accurately controlled using the described methods.

Cognitive Behavioral Therapy for Insomnia Comorbid With Psychiatric and Medical Conditions: A Meta-analysis.

PubMed

Wu, Jade Q; Appleman, Erica R; Salazar, Robert D; Ong, Jason C

2015-09-01

Cognitive behavioral therapy for insomnia (CBT-I) is the most prominent nonpharmacologic treatment for insomnia disorders. Although meta-analyses have examined primary insomnia, less is known about the comparative efficacy of CBT-I on comorbid insomnia. To examine the efficacy of CBT-I for insomnia comorbid with psychiatric and/or medical conditions for (1) remission from insomnia; (2) self-reported sleep efficiency, sleep onset latency, wake after sleep onset, total sleep time, and subjective sleep quality; and (3) comorbid symptoms. A systematic search was conducted on June 2, 2014, through PubMed, PsycINFO, the Cochrane Library, and manual searches. Search terms included (1) CBT-I or CBT or cognitive behavioral [and its variations] or behavioral therapy [and its variations] or behavioral sleep medicine or stimulus control or sleep restriction or relaxation therapy or relaxation training or progressive muscle relaxation or paradoxical intention; and (2) insomnia or sleep disturbance. Studies were included if they were randomized clinical trials with at least one CBT-I arm and had an adult population meeting diagnostic criteria for insomnia as well as a concomitant condition. Inclusion in final analyses (37 studies) was based on consensus between 3 authors' independent screenings. Data were independently extracted by 2 authors and pooled using a random-effects model. Study quality was independently evaluated by 2 authors using the Cochrane risk of bias assessment tool. A priori main outcomes (ie, clinical sleep and comorbid outcomes) were derived from sleep diary and other self-report measures. At posttreatment evaluation, 36.0% of patients who received CBT-I were in remission from insomnia compared with 16.9% of those in control or comparison conditions (pooled odds ratio, 3.28; 95% CI, 2.30-4.68; P < .001). Pretreatment and posttreatment controlled effect sizes were medium to large for most sleep parameters (sleep efficiency: Hedges g = 0.91 [95% CI, 0.74 to 1.08]; sleep onset latency: Hedges g = 0.80 [95% CI, 0.60 to 1.00]; wake after sleep onset: Hedges g = 0.68; sleep quality: Hedges g = 0.84; all P < .001), except total sleep time. Comorbid outcomes yielded a small effect size (Hedges g = 0.39 [95% CI, 0.60-0.98]; P < .001); improvements were greater in psychiatric than in medical populations (Hedges g = 0.20 [95% CI, 0.09-0.30]; χ2 test for interaction = 12.30; P < .001). Cognitive behavioral therapy for insomnia is efficacious for improving insomnia symptoms and sleep parameters for patients with comorbid insomnia. A small to medium positive effect was found across comorbid outcomes, with larger effects on psychiatric conditions compared with medical conditions. Large-scale studies with more rigorous designs to reduce detection and performance bias are needed to improve the quality of the evidence.

Control Variates and Optimal Designs in Metamodeling

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-03-01

27 2.4.5 Selection of Control Variates for Inclusion in Model...meet the normality assumption (Nelson 1990, Nelson and Yang 1992, Anonuevo and Nelson 1988). Jacknifing, splitting, and bootstrapping can be used to...freedom to estimate the variance are lost due to being used for the control variate inclusion . This means the variance reduction achieved must now be

Conditional Optimal Design in Three- and Four-Level Experiments

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hedges, Larry V.; Borenstein, Michael

2014-01-01

The precision of estimates of treatment effects in multilevel experiments depends on the sample sizes chosen at each level. It is often desirable to choose sample sizes at each level to obtain the smallest variance for a fixed total cost, that is, to obtain optimal sample allocation. This article extends previous results on optimal allocation to…

Research on regularized mean-variance portfolio selection strategy with modified Roy safety-first principle.

PubMed

Atta Mills, Ebenezer Fiifi Emire; Yan, Dawen; Yu, Bo; Wei, Xinyuan

2016-01-01

We propose a consolidated risk measure based on variance and the safety-first principle in a mean-risk portfolio optimization framework. The safety-first principle to financial portfolio selection strategy is modified and improved. Our proposed models are subjected to norm regularization to seek near-optimal stable and sparse portfolios. We compare the cumulative wealth of our preferred proposed model to a benchmark, S&P 500 index for the same period. Our proposed portfolio strategies have better out-of-sample performance than the selected alternative portfolio rules in literature and control the downside risk of the portfolio returns.

Teleportation of squeezing: Optimization using non-Gaussian resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dell'Anno, Fabio; de Siena, Silvio; Adesso, Gerardo; Illuminati, Fabrizio

2010-12-01

We study the continuous-variable quantum teleportation of states, statistical moments of observables, and scale parameters such as squeezing. We investigate the problem both in ideal and imperfect Vaidman-Braunstein-Kimble protocol setups. We show how the teleportation fidelity is maximized and the difference between output and input variances is minimized by using suitably optimized entangled resources. Specifically, we consider the teleportation of coherent squeezed states, exploiting squeezed Bell states as entangled resources. This class of non-Gaussian states, introduced by Illuminati and co-workers [F. Dell’Anno, S. De Siena, L. Albano, and F. Illuminati, Phys. Rev. APLRAAN1050-294710.1103/PhysRevA.76.022301 76, 022301 (2007); F. Dell’Anno, S. De Siena, and F. Illuminati, Phys. Rev. APLRAAN1050-294710.1103/PhysRevA.81.012333 81, 012333 (2010)], includes photon-added and photon-subtracted squeezed states as special cases. At variance with the case of entangled Gaussian resources, the use of entangled non-Gaussian squeezed Bell resources allows one to choose different optimization procedures that lead to inequivalent results. Performing two independent optimization procedures, one can either maximize the state teleportation fidelity, or minimize the difference between input and output quadrature variances. The two different procedures are compared depending on the degrees of displacement and squeezing of the input states and on the working conditions in ideal and nonideal setups.

Business owners' optimism and business performance after a natural disaster.

PubMed

Bronson, James W; Faircloth, James B; Valentine, Sean R

2006-12-01

Previous work indicates that individuals' optimism is related to superior performance in adverse situations. This study examined correlations after flooding for measures of business recovery but found only weak support (very small common variance) for business owners' optimism scores and sales recovery. Using traditional measures of recovery, in this study was little empirical evidence that optimism would be of value in identifying businesses at risk after a natural disaster.

Policy Tree Optimization for Adaptive Management of Water Resources Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herman, J. D.; Giuliani, M.

2016-12-01

Water resources systems must cope with irreducible uncertainty in supply and demand, requiring policy alternatives capable of adapting to a range of possible future scenarios. Recent studies have developed adaptive policies based on "signposts" or "tipping points", which are threshold values of indicator variables that signal a change in policy. However, there remains a need for a general method to optimize the choice of indicators and their threshold values in a way that is easily interpretable for decision makers. Here we propose a conceptual framework and computational algorithm to design adaptive policies as a tree structure (i.e., a hierarchical set of logical rules) using a simulation-optimization approach based on genetic programming. We demonstrate the approach using Folsom Reservoir, California as a case study, in which operating policies must balance the risk of both floods and droughts. Given a set of feature variables, such as reservoir level, inflow observations and forecasts, and time of year, the resulting policy defines the conditions under which flood control and water supply hedging operations should be triggered. Importantly, the tree-based rule sets are easy to interpret for decision making, and can be compared to historical operating policies to understand the adaptations needed under possible climate change scenarios. Several remaining challenges are discussed, including the empirical convergence properties of the method, and extensions to irreversible decisions such as infrastructure. Policy tree optimization, and corresponding open-source software, provide a generalizable, interpretable approach to designing adaptive policies under uncertainty for water resources systems.

Perceptual attraction in tool use: evidence for a reliability-based weighting mechanism.

PubMed

Debats, Nienke B; Ernst, Marc O; Heuer, Herbert

2017-04-01

Humans are well able to operate tools whereby their hand movement is linked, via a kinematic transformation, to a spatially distant object moving in a separate plane of motion. An everyday example is controlling a cursor on a computer monitor. Despite these separate reference frames, the perceived positions of the hand and the object were found to be biased toward each other. We propose that this perceptual attraction is based on the principles by which the brain integrates redundant sensory information of single objects or events, known as optimal multisensory integration. That is, 1 ) sensory information about the hand and the tool are weighted according to their relative reliability (i.e., inverse variances), and 2 ) the unisensory reliabilities sum up in the integrated estimate. We assessed whether perceptual attraction is consistent with optimal multisensory integration model predictions. We used a cursor-control tool-use task in which we manipulated the relative reliability of the unisensory hand and cursor position estimates. The perceptual biases shifted according to these relative reliabilities, with an additional bias due to contextual factors that were present in experiment 1 but not in experiment 2 The biased position judgments' variances were, however, systematically larger than the predicted optimal variances. Our findings suggest that the perceptual attraction in tool use results from a reliability-based weighting mechanism similar to optimal multisensory integration, but that certain boundary conditions for optimality might not be satisfied. NEW & NOTEWORTHY Kinematic tool use is associated with a perceptual attraction between the spatially separated hand and the effective part of the tool. We provide a formal account for this phenomenon, thereby showing that the process behind it is similar to optimal integration of sensory information relating to single objects. Copyright © 2017 the American Physiological Society.

Optimal decision making on the basis of evidence represented in spike trains.

PubMed

Zhang, Jiaxiang; Bogacz, Rafal

2010-05-01

Experimental data indicate that perceptual decision making involves integration of sensory evidence in certain cortical areas. Theoretical studies have proposed that the computation in neural decision circuits approximates statistically optimal decision procedures (e.g., sequential probability ratio test) that maximize the reward rate in sequential choice tasks. However, these previous studies assumed that the sensory evidence was represented by continuous values from gaussian distributions with the same variance across alternatives. In this article, we make a more realistic assumption that sensory evidence is represented in spike trains described by the Poisson processes, which naturally satisfy the mean-variance relationship observed in sensory neurons. We show that for such a representation, the neural circuits involving cortical integrators and basal ganglia can approximate the optimal decision procedures for two and multiple alternative choice tasks.

Multi-Sensor Optimal Data Fusion Based on the Adaptive Fading Unscented Kalman Filter

PubMed Central

Gao, Bingbing; Hu, Gaoge; Gao, Shesheng; Gu, Chengfan

2018-01-01

This paper presents a new optimal data fusion methodology based on the adaptive fading unscented Kalman filter for multi-sensor nonlinear stochastic systems. This methodology has a two-level fusion structure: at the bottom level, an adaptive fading unscented Kalman filter based on the Mahalanobis distance is developed and serves as local filters to improve the adaptability and robustness of local state estimations against process-modeling error; at the top level, an unscented transformation-based multi-sensor optimal data fusion for the case of N local filters is established according to the principle of linear minimum variance to calculate globally optimal state estimation by fusion of local estimations. The proposed methodology effectively refrains from the influence of process-modeling error on the fusion solution, leading to improved adaptability and robustness of data fusion for multi-sensor nonlinear stochastic systems. It also achieves globally optimal fusion results based on the principle of linear minimum variance. Simulation and experimental results demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed methodology for INS/GNSS/CNS (inertial navigation system/global navigation satellite system/celestial navigation system) integrated navigation. PMID:29415509

Multi-Sensor Optimal Data Fusion Based on the Adaptive Fading Unscented Kalman Filter.

PubMed

Gao, Bingbing; Hu, Gaoge; Gao, Shesheng; Zhong, Yongmin; Gu, Chengfan

2018-02-06

This paper presents a new optimal data fusion methodology based on the adaptive fading unscented Kalman filter for multi-sensor nonlinear stochastic systems. This methodology has a two-level fusion structure: at the bottom level, an adaptive fading unscented Kalman filter based on the Mahalanobis distance is developed and serves as local filters to improve the adaptability and robustness of local state estimations against process-modeling error; at the top level, an unscented transformation-based multi-sensor optimal data fusion for the case of N local filters is established according to the principle of linear minimum variance to calculate globally optimal state estimation by fusion of local estimations. The proposed methodology effectively refrains from the influence of process-modeling error on the fusion solution, leading to improved adaptability and robustness of data fusion for multi-sensor nonlinear stochastic systems. It also achieves globally optimal fusion results based on the principle of linear minimum variance. Simulation and experimental results demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed methodology for INS/GNSS/CNS (inertial navigation system/global navigation satellite system/celestial navigation system) integrated navigation.

A method for energy window optimization for quantitative tasks that includes the effects of model-mismatch on bias: application to Y-90 bremsstrahlung SPECT imaging.

PubMed

Rong, Xing; Du, Yong; Frey, Eric C

2012-06-21

Quantitative Yttrium-90 ((90)Y) bremsstrahlung single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) imaging has shown great potential to provide reliable estimates of (90)Y activity distribution for targeted radionuclide therapy dosimetry applications. One factor that potentially affects the reliability of the activity estimates is the choice of the acquisition energy window. In contrast to imaging conventional gamma photon emitters where the acquisition energy windows are usually placed around photopeaks, there has been great variation in the choice of the acquisition energy window for (90)Y imaging due to the continuous and broad energy distribution of the bremsstrahlung photons. In quantitative imaging of conventional gamma photon emitters, previous methods for optimizing the acquisition energy window assumed unbiased estimators and used the variance in the estimates as a figure of merit (FOM). However, for situations, such as (90)Y imaging, where there are errors in the modeling of the image formation process used in the reconstruction there will be bias in the activity estimates. In (90)Y bremsstrahlung imaging this will be especially important due to the high levels of scatter, multiple scatter, and collimator septal penetration and scatter. Thus variance will not be a complete measure of reliability of the estimates and thus is not a complete FOM. To address this, we first aimed to develop a new method to optimize the energy window that accounts for both the bias due to model-mismatch and the variance of the activity estimates. We applied this method to optimize the acquisition energy window for quantitative (90)Y bremsstrahlung SPECT imaging in microsphere brachytherapy. Since absorbed dose is defined as the absorbed energy from the radiation per unit mass of tissues in this new method we proposed a mass-weighted root mean squared error of the volume of interest (VOI) activity estimates as the FOM. To calculate this FOM, two analytical expressions were derived for calculating the bias due to model-mismatch and the variance of the VOI activity estimates, respectively. To obtain the optimal acquisition energy window for general situations of interest in clinical (90)Y microsphere imaging, we generated phantoms with multiple tumors of various sizes and various tumor-to-normal activity concentration ratios using a digital phantom that realistically simulates human anatomy, simulated (90)Y microsphere imaging with a clinical SPECT system and typical imaging parameters using a previously validated Monte Carlo simulation code, and used a previously proposed method for modeling the image degrading effects in quantitative SPECT reconstruction. The obtained optimal acquisition energy window was 100-160 keV. The values of the proposed FOM were much larger than the FOM taking into account only the variance of the activity estimates, thus demonstrating in our experiment that the bias of the activity estimates due to model-mismatch was a more important factor than the variance in terms of limiting the reliability of activity estimates.

On optimal current patterns for electrical impedance tomography.

PubMed

Demidenko, Eugene; Hartov, Alex; Soni, Nirmal; Paulsen, Keith D

2005-02-01

We develop a statistical criterion for optimal patterns in planar circular electrical impedance tomography. These patterns minimize the total variance of the estimation for the resistance or conductance matrix. It is shown that trigonometric patterns (Isaacson, 1986), originally derived from the concept of distinguishability, are a special case of our optimal statistical patterns. New optimal random patterns are introduced. Recovering the electrical properties of the measured body is greatly simplified when optimal patterns are used. The Neumann-to-Dirichlet map and the optimal patterns are derived for a homogeneous medium with an arbitrary distribution of the electrodes on the periphery. As a special case, optimal patterns are developed for a practical EIT system with a finite number of electrodes. For a general nonhomogeneous medium, with no a priori restriction, the optimal patterns for the resistance and conductance matrix are the same. However, for a homogeneous medium, the best current pattern is the worst voltage pattern and vice versa. We study the effect of the number and the width of the electrodes on the estimate of resistivity and conductivity in a homogeneous medium. We confirm experimentally that the optimal patterns produce minimum conductivity variance in a homogeneous medium. Our statistical model is able to discriminate between a homogenous agar phantom and one with a 2 mm air hole with error probability (p-value) 1/1000.

Host-parasite coevolution can promote the evolution of seed banking as a bet-hedging strategy.

PubMed

Verin, Mélissa; Tellier, Aurélien

2018-04-20

Seed (egg) banking is a common bet-hedging strategy maximizing the fitness of organisms facing environmental unpredictability by the delayed emergence of offspring. Yet, this condition often requires fast and drastic stochastic shifts between good and bad years. We hypothesize that the host seed banking strategy can evolve in response to coevolution with parasites because the coevolutionary cycles promote a gradually changing environment over longer times than seed persistence. We study the evolution of host germination fraction as a quantitative trait using both pairwise competition and multiple mutant competition methods, while the germination locus can be genetically linked or unlinked with the host locus under coevolution. In a gene-for-gene model of coevolution, hosts evolve a seed bank strategy under unstable coevolutionary cycles promoted by moderate to high costs of resistance or strong disease severity. Moreover, when assuming genetic linkage between coevolving and germination loci, the resistant genotype always evolves seed banking in contrast to susceptible hosts. Under a matching-allele interaction, both hosts' genotypes exhibit the same seed banking strategy irrespective of the genetic linkage between loci. We suggest host-parasite coevolution as an additional hypothesis for the evolution of seed banking as a temporal bet-hedging strategy. © 2018 The Author(s). Evolution © 2018 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Climate and geographic trends in hatch delay of the treehole mosquito, Aedes triseriatus Say (Diptera: Culicidae).

PubMed

Khatchikian, Camilo E; Dennehy, John J; Vitek, Christopher J; Livdahl, Todd

2009-06-01

Eggs of Aedes triseriatus mosquitoes are stimulated to hatch when inundated with water, but only a small fraction of eggs from the same batch will hatch for any given stimulus. Similar hatching or germination patterns are observed in desert plants, copepods, rotifers, insects, and many other species. Bet hedging theory suggests that parents stagger offspring emergence into vulnerable life history stages in order to avoid catastrophic reproductive failures. For Ae. triseriatus, a treehole breeding mosquito, immediate hatching of an entire clutch leaves all of the parent's progeny vulnerable to extinction in the event of a severe drought. Natural selection has likely favored parents that pursued a bet hedging strategy where the risk of reproductive failure is distributed over time. Considering treehole mosquitoes, bet hedging theory could be used to predict that hatch delay would be positively correlated with the likelihood of drought. To test this prediction, we collected Ae. triseriatus from habitats that varied widely in mean annual precipitation and exposed them to several hatch stimuli in the laboratory. Here we report that, as predicted, Ae. triseriatus eggs from high precipitation regions showed less hatch delay than areas of low precipitation. This strategy probably allows Ae. triseriatus to cope with the wide variety of climatic conditions that it faces in its extensive geographical range.

Optimal Wind Power Uncertainty Intervals for Electricity Market Operation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Ying; Zhou, Zhi; Botterud, Audun

It is important to select an appropriate uncertainty level of the wind power forecast for power system scheduling and electricity market operation. Traditional methods hedge against a predefined level of wind power uncertainty, such as a specific confidence interval or uncertainty set, which leaves the questions of how to best select the appropriate uncertainty levels. To bridge this gap, this paper proposes a model to optimize the forecast uncertainty intervals of wind power for power system scheduling problems, with the aim of achieving the best trade-off between economics and reliability. Then we reformulate and linearize the models into a mixedmore » integer linear programming (MILP) without strong assumptions on the shape of the probability distribution. In order to invest the impacts on cost, reliability, and prices in a electricity market, we apply the proposed model on a twosettlement electricity market based on a six-bus test system and on a power system representing the U.S. state of Illinois. The results show that the proposed method can not only help to balance the economics and reliability of the power system scheduling, but also help to stabilize the energy prices in electricity market operation.« less

Phenotypic switching of populations of cells in a stochastic environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hufton, Peter G.; Lin, Yen Ting; Galla, Tobias

2018-02-01

In biology phenotypic switching is a common bet-hedging strategy in the face of uncertain environmental conditions. Existing mathematical models often focus on periodically changing environments to determine the optimal phenotypic response. We focus on the case in which the environment switches randomly between discrete states. Starting from an individual-based model we derive stochastic differential equations to describe the dynamics, and obtain analytical expressions for the mean instantaneous growth rates based on the theory of piecewise-deterministic Markov processes. We show that optimal phenotypic responses are non-trivial for slow and intermediate environmental processes, and systematically compare the cases of periodic and random environments. The best response to random switching is more likely to be heterogeneity than in the case of deterministic periodic environments, net growth rates tend to be higher under stochastic environmental dynamics. The combined system of environment and population of cells can be interpreted as host-pathogen interaction, in which the host tries to choose environmental switching so as to minimise growth of the pathogen, and in which the pathogen employs a phenotypic switching optimised to increase its growth rate. We discuss the existence of Nash-like mutual best-response scenarios for such host-pathogen games.

Design of clinical trials involving multiple hypothesis tests with a common control.

PubMed

Schou, I Manjula; Marschner, Ian C

2017-07-01

Randomized clinical trials comparing several treatments to a common control are often reported in the medical literature. For example, multiple experimental treatments may be compared with placebo, or in combination therapy trials, a combination therapy may be compared with each of its constituent monotherapies. Such trials are typically designed using a balanced approach in which equal numbers of individuals are randomized to each arm, however, this can result in an inefficient use of resources. We provide a unified framework and new theoretical results for optimal design of such single-control multiple-comparator studies. We consider variance optimal designs based on D-, A-, and E-optimality criteria, using a general model that allows for heteroscedasticity and a range of effect measures that include both continuous and binary outcomes. We demonstrate the sensitivity of these designs to the type of optimality criterion by showing that the optimal allocation ratios are systematically ordered according to the optimality criterion. Given this sensitivity to the optimality criterion, we argue that power optimality is a more suitable approach when designing clinical trials where testing is the objective. Weighted variance optimal designs are also discussed, which, like power optimal designs, allow the treatment difference to play a major role in determining allocation ratios. We illustrate our methods using two real clinical trial examples taken from the medical literature. Some recommendations on the use of optimal designs in single-control multiple-comparator trials are also provided. © 2016 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Bionomics of Asian Citrus Psyllid (Hemiptera: Liviidae) Associated with Orange Jasmine Hedges in Southeast Central Florida, with Special Reference to Biological Control by Tamarixia radiata.

PubMed

Hall, David G; Rohrig, Eric

2015-06-01

The Asian citrus psyllid, Diaphorina citri Kuwayama, is an important pest in Florida because it transmits bacteria responsible for citrus huanglongbing disease. In addition to infesting citrus, orange jasmine (Murraya exotica L.) is one of Asian citrus psyllid's preferred host plants and is widely grown as an ornamental hedge. We report on Asian citrus psyllid bionomics over three years at five urban plantings of orange jasmine and on biological control of Asian citrus psyllid by a parasitoid Tamarixia radiata (Waterston). T. radiata had been released in Florida shortly after Asian citrus psyllid was first found, and the parasitoid was known to be established at each planting. Additionally, three new T. radiata haplotypes were released every 3 wk at three plantings during the first study year (one haplotype per planting, over all releases an average of 17 parasitoids per linear meter of hedge); all three haplotypes were released at a fourth planting beginning midway through the study (over all releases, an average combined total of 202 parasitoids per linear meter of hedge). Asian citrus psyllid populations were present year-round at each planting, often at large levels. Such plantings may pose risk to commercial citrus as Asian citrus psyllid reservoirs. Releases of the new haplotypes did not cause any measurable reduction in Asian citrus psyllid population levels during the study, and ironically percentage parasitism was generally highest at a planting where no releases were made. Higher release rates might have been more effective. The probability is discussed that repetitive pruning of orange jasmine reduced the full potential of T. radiata against Asian citrus psyllid in this study. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America 2015. This work is written by US Government employees and is in the public domain in the US.

Issues in energy finance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khokher, Zeigham Islam

As opposed to the well developed and understood equity markets, the energy markets are still in their infancy. The explosion of contracts, of both the primary and derivative types, are testament both to the existing size and the untapped growth potential of this exciting industry. However, because of its relative youth many basic issues in the energy markets remain unresolved. This thesis introduces some interesting questions and provides insights into these issues. Thematically, the chapters of this thesis are linked by an emphasis on valuation and risk management decisions. A contribution of this thesis is to show that subtle differences between the endogenous price process in our general equilibrium setting and the exogenous processes considered in earlier papers can generate significant differences in both financial and real option values. In addition to these valuation concerns there has been much debate about the corporate risk management function. Finance theory suggests that a value maximizing corporation should either be indifferent to hedging or, in the presence of certain imperfections, it should completely hedge all exposures. Both these extremes contradict empirical evidence. We show that existing corporate hedging behaviour is best explained in light of both physical market imperfections and directional predictions on future prices. While these speculative motives may arise from corporate hubris or genuine informational advantages, we argue that it would be difficult to implement private information in the absence of noise traders. Related to the risk management decision is the existence of futures risk premia. These premia have been thought to be cause by covariance with priced factors or due to the hedging demands of consumers and producers. This thesis argues that inventories serve as a signal of available quantity, which coupled with consumers fears regarding stockouts can induce a positive relationship between premia and inventories. In conclusion, we test this relationship using natural gas storage and futures price data and show empirical support for our hypothesis.

Impact of introducing practical obstetric multi-professional training (PROMPT) into maternity units in Victoria, Australia.

PubMed

Shoushtarian, M; Barnett, M; McMahon, F; Ferris, J

2014-12-01

To assess the introduction of Practical Obstetric Multi-professional Training (PROMPT) into maternity units and evaluate effects on organisational culture and perinatal outcomes. A retrospective cohort study. Maternity units in eight public hospitals in metropolitan and regional Victoria, Australia. Staff in eight maternity units and a total of 43,408 babies born between July 2008 and December 2011. Representatives from eight Victorian hospitals underwent a single day of training (Train the Trainer), to conduct PROMPT. Organisational culture was compared before and after PROMPT. Clinical outcomes were evaluated before, during and after PROMPT. The number of courses run and the proportion of staff trained were determined. Organisational culture was measured using the Safety Attitude Questionnaire. Clinical measures included Apgar scores at 1 and 5 minutes (Apgar 1 and Apgar 5), cord lactate, blood loss and length of baby's stay in hospital. Seven of the eight hospitals conducted PROMPT. Overall about 50% of staff were trained in each year of the study. Significant increases were found in Safety Attitude Questionnaire scores representing domains of teamwork (Hedges' g 0.27, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 0.13-0.41), safety (Hedges' g 0.28, 95% CI 0.15-0.42) and perception of management (Hedges' g 0.17, 95% CI 0.04-0.31). There were significant improvements in Apgar 1 (OR 0.84, 95% CI 0.77-0.91), cord lactates (odds ratio 0.92, 95% CI 0.85-0.99) and average length of baby's stay in hospital (Hedges' g 0.03, 95% CI 0.01-0.05) during or after training, but no change in Apgar 5 scores or proportion of cases with high blood loss. PROMPT can be introduced using the Train the Trainer model. Improvements in organisational culture and some clinical measures were observed following PROMPT. © 2014 Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists.

The efficacy of music therapy for people with dementia: A meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials.

PubMed

Chang, Yu-Shiun; Chu, Hsin; Yang, Chyn-Yng; Tsai, Jui-Chen; Chung, Min-Huey; Liao, Yuan-Mei; Chi, Mei-ju; Liu, Megan F; Chou, Kuei-Ru

2015-12-01

To (1) perform a meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials pertaining to the efficacy of music therapy on disruptive behaviours, anxiety levels, depressive moods and cognitive functioning in people with dementia; and (2) clarify which interventions, therapists and participant characteristics exerted higher and more prominent effects. Present study was the first to perform a meta-analysis that included all the randomised controlled trials found in literature relating to music therapy for people with dementia over the past 15 years. A meta-analysis study design. Quantitative studies were retrieved from PubMed, Medline, Cochrane Library Database, CINAHL, SCOPUS and PsycINFO. A meta-analysis was used to calculate the overall effect sizes of music therapy on outcome indicators. Music therapy significantly improved disruptive behaviours [Hedges' g = -0·66; 95% confidence interval (CI) = -0·44 to -0·88] and anxiety levels (Hedges' g = -0·51; 95% CI = -0·02 to -1·00) in people with dementia. Music therapy might affect depressive moods (Hedges' g = -0·39; 95% CI = 0·01 to -0·78), and cognitive functioning (Hedges' g = 0·19; 95% CI = 0·45 to -0·08). Music therapy exerted a moderately large effect on disruptive behaviours of people with dementia, a moderate effect on anxiety levels and depressive moods, and a small effect on cognitive functioning. Individual music therapy provided once a week to patients with cognitive functioning and manual guided in music intervention construction is suggested. Group music therapy is provided several times a week to reduce their disruptive behaviours, anxiety levels and depressive moods. Music therapy is a cost-effective, enjoyable, noninvasive therapy and could be useful for clinical nurses in creating an environment that is conducive to the well-being of patients with dementia. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Why "suboptimal" is optimal: Jensen's inequality and ectotherm thermal preferences.

PubMed

Martin, Tara Laine; Huey, Raymond B

2008-03-01

Body temperature (T(b)) profoundly affects the fitness of ectotherms. Many ectotherms use behavior to control T(b) within narrow levels. These temperatures are assumed to be optimal and therefore to match body temperatures (Trmax) that maximize fitness (r). We develop an optimality model and find that optimal body temperature (T(o)) should not be centered at Trmax but shifted to a lower temperature. This finding seems paradoxical but results from two considerations relating to Jensen's inequality, which deals with how variance and skew influence integrals of nonlinear functions. First, ectotherms are not perfect thermoregulators and so experience a range of T(b). Second, temperature-fitness curves are asymmetric, such that a T(b) higher than Trmax depresses fitness more than will a T(b) displaced an equivalent amount below Trmax. Our model makes several predictions. The magnitude of the optimal shift (Trmax - To) should increase with the degree of asymmetry of temperature-fitness curves and with T(b) variance. Deviations should be relatively large for thermal specialists but insensitive to whether fitness increases with Trmax ("hotter is better"). Asymmetric (left-skewed) T(b) distributions reduce the magnitude of the optimal shift but do not eliminate it. Comparative data (insects, lizards) support key predictions. Thus, "suboptimal" is optimal.

Causes of individual differences in adolescent optimism: a study in Dutch twins and their siblings.

PubMed

Mavioğlu, Rezan Nehir; Boomsma, Dorret I; Bartels, Meike

2015-11-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the degree to which genetic and environmental influences affect variation in adolescent optimism. Optimism (3 items and 6 items approach) and pessimism were assessed by the Life Orientation Test-Revised (LOT-R) in 5,187 adolescent twins and 999 of their non-twin siblings from the Netherlands Twin Register (NTR). Males reported significantly higher optimism scores than females, while females score higher on pessimism. Genetic structural equation modeling revealed that about one-third of the variance in optimism and pessimism was due to additive genetic effects, with the remaining variance being explained by non-shared environmental effects. A bivariate correlated factor model revealed two dimensions with a genetic correlation of -.57 (CI -.67, -.47), while the non-shared environmental correlation was estimated to be -.21 (CI -.25, -.16). Neither an effect of shared environment, non-additive genetic influences, nor quantitative sex differences was found for both dimensions. This result indicates that individual differences in adolescent optimism are mainly accounted for by non-shared environmental factors. These environmental factors do not contribute to the similarity of family members, but to differences between them. Familial resemblance in optimism and pessimism assessed in adolescents is fully accounted for by genetic overlap between family members.

Association of Peripheral Blood Levels of Brain-Derived Neurotrophic Factor With Autism Spectrum Disorder in Children: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

PubMed

Qin, Xiao-Yan; Feng, Jin-Chao; Cao, Chang; Wu, Huan-Tong; Loh, Y Peng; Cheng, Yong

2016-11-01

Accumulating evidence suggests that brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) may be implicated in the developmental outcomes of children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD). To use meta-analysis to determine whether children with ASD have altered peripheral blood levels of BDNF. A systematic search of PubMed, PsycINFO, and Web of Science was performed for English-language literature through February 7, 2016. The search terms included brain-derived neurotrophic factor or BDNF in combination with autism, without year restriction. Two additional records were retrieved after a review of the reference lists of selected articles. Studies were included if they provided data on peripheral blood levels of BDNF in children with ASD and healthy control children. Studies that included adults or with overlapping samples were excluded. Data were extracted by 2 independent observers from 19 included studies. Data were pooled using a random-effects model with Comprehensive Meta-analysis software. Blood levels of BDNF in children with ASD compared with healthy controls. Altered levels of BDNF were hypothesized to be related to ASD. This meta-analysis included 19 studies with 2896 unique participants. Random-effects meta-analysis of all 19 studies showed that children with ASD had significantly increased peripheral blood levels of BDNF compared with healthy controls (Hedges g, 0.490; 95% CI, 0.185-0.794; P = .002). Subgroup analyses in 4 studies revealed that neonates diagnosed with ASD later in life had no association with blood levels of BDNF (Hedges g, 0.384; 95% CI, -0.244 to 1.011; P = .23), whereas children in the nonneonate ASD group (15 studies) demonstrated significantly increased BDNF levels compared with healthy controls (Hedges g, 0.524; 95% CI, 0.206 to 0.842; P = .001). Further analysis showed that children in the nonneonate ASD group had increased BDNF levels in serum (10 studies) (Hedges g, 0.564; 95% CI, 0.168 to 0.960; P = .005) but not in plasma (5 studies) (Hedges g, 0.436; 95% CI, -0.176 to 1.048; P = .16). Meta-regression analyses revealed that sample size had a moderating effect on the outcome of the meta-analysis in the nonneonate group. In addition, no publication bias was found in the meta-analysis. Children with ASD have increased peripheral blood levels of BDNF, strengthening the clinical evidence of an abnormal neurotrophic factor profile in this population.

Three essays on agricultural price volatility and the linkages between agricultural and energy markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Feng

This dissertation contains three essays. In the first essay I use a volatility spillover model to find evidence of significant spillovers from crude oil prices to corn cash and futures prices, and that these spillover effects are time-varying. Results reveal that corn markets have become much more connected to crude oil markets after the introduction of the Energy Policy Act of 2005. Furthermore, crude oil prices transmit positive volatility spillovers into corn prices and movements in corn prices become more energy-driven as the ethanol gasoline consumption ratio increases. Based on this strong volatility link between crude oil and corn prices, a new cross hedging strategy for managing corn price risk using oil futures is examined and its performance studied. Results show that this cross hedging strategy provides only slightly better hedging performance compared to traditional hedging in corn futures markets alone. The implication is that hedging corn price risk in corn futures markets alone can still provide relatively satisfactory performance in the biofuel era. The second essay studies the spillover effect of biofuel policy on participation in the Conservation Reserve Program. Landowners' participation decisions are modeled using a real options framework. A novel aspect of the model is that it captures the structural change in agriculture caused by rising biofuel production. The resulting model is used to simulate the spillover effect under various conditions. In particular, I simulate how increased growth in agricultural returns, persistence of the biofuel production boom, and the volatility surrounding agricultural returns, affect conservation program participation decisions. Policy implications of these results are also discussed. The third essay proposes a methodology to construct a risk-adjusted implied volatility measure that removes the forecasting bias of the model-free implied volatility measure. The risk adjustment is based on a closed-form relationship between the expectation of future volatility and the model-free implied volatility assuming a jump-diffusion model. I use a GMM estimation framework to identify the key model parameters needed to apply the model. An empirical application to corn futures implied volatility is used to illustrate the methodology and demonstrate differences between my approach and the model-free implied volatility using observed corn option prices. I compare the risk-adjusted forecast with the unadjusted forecast as well as other alternatives; and results suggest that the risk-adjusted volatility is unbiased, informationally more efficient, and has superior predictive power over the alternatives considered.

Control algorithms for dynamic attenuators

PubMed Central

Hsieh, Scott S.; Pelc, Norbert J.

2014-01-01

Purpose: The authors describe algorithms to control dynamic attenuators in CT and compare their performance using simulated scans. Dynamic attenuators are prepatient beam shaping filters that modulate the distribution of x-ray fluence incident on the patient on a view-by-view basis. These attenuators can reduce dose while improving key image quality metrics such as peak or mean variance. In each view, the attenuator presents several degrees of freedom which may be individually adjusted. The total number of degrees of freedom across all views is very large, making many optimization techniques impractical. The authors develop a theory for optimally controlling these attenuators. Special attention is paid to a theoretically perfect attenuator which controls the fluence for each ray individually, but the authors also investigate and compare three other, practical attenuator designs which have been previously proposed: the piecewise-linear attenuator, the translating attenuator, and the double wedge attenuator. Methods: The authors pose and solve the optimization problems of minimizing the mean and peak variance subject to a fixed dose limit. For a perfect attenuator and mean variance minimization, this problem can be solved in simple, closed form. For other attenuator designs, the problem can be decomposed into separate problems for each view to greatly reduce the computational complexity. Peak variance minimization can be approximately solved using iterated, weighted mean variance (WMV) minimization. Also, the authors develop heuristics for the perfect and piecewise-linear attenuators which do not require a priori knowledge of the patient anatomy. The authors compare these control algorithms on different types of dynamic attenuators using simulated raw data from forward projected DICOM files of a thorax and an abdomen. Results: The translating and double wedge attenuators reduce dose by an average of 30% relative to current techniques (bowtie filter with tube current modulation) without increasing peak variance. The 15-element piecewise-linear dynamic attenuator reduces dose by an average of 42%, and the perfect attenuator reduces dose by an average of 50%. Improvements in peak variance are several times larger than improvements in mean variance. Heuristic control eliminates the need for a prescan. For the piecewise-linear attenuator, the cost of heuristic control is an increase in dose of 9%. The proposed iterated WMV minimization produces results that are within a few percent of the true solution. Conclusions: Dynamic attenuators show potential for significant dose reduction. A wide class of dynamic attenuators can be accurately controlled using the described methods. PMID:24877818

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aziz, Mohd Khairul Bazli Mohd, E-mail: mkbazli@yahoo.com; Yusof, Fadhilah, E-mail: fadhilahy@utm.my; Daud, Zalina Mohd, E-mail: zalina@ic.utm.my

Recently, many rainfall network design techniques have been developed, discussed and compared by many researchers. Present day hydrological studies require higher levels of accuracy from collected data. In numerous basins, the rain gauge stations are located without clear scientific understanding. In this study, an attempt is made to redesign rain gauge network for Johor, Malaysia in order to meet the required level of accuracy preset by rainfall data users. The existing network of 84 rain gauges in Johor is optimized and redesigned into a new locations by using rainfall, humidity, solar radiation, temperature and wind speed data collected during themore » monsoon season (November - February) of 1975 until 2008. This study used the combination of geostatistics method (variance-reduction method) and simulated annealing as the algorithm of optimization during the redesigned proses. The result shows that the new rain gauge location provides minimum value of estimated variance. This shows that the combination of geostatistics method (variance-reduction method) and simulated annealing is successful in the development of the new optimum rain gauge system.« less

On the pilot's behavior of detecting a system parameter change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morizumi, N.; Kimura, H.

1986-01-01

The reaction of a human pilot, engaged in compensatory control, to a sudden change in the controlled element's characteristics is described. Taking the case where the change manifests itself as a variance change of the monitored signal, it is shown that the detection time, defined to be the time elapsed until the pilot detects the change, is related to the monitored signal and its derivative. Then, the detection behavior is modeled by an optimal controller, an optimal estimator, and a variance-ratio test mechanism that is performed for the monitored signal and its derivative. Results of a digital simulation show that the pilot's detection behavior can be well represented by the model proposed here.

Weighting by Inverse Variance or by Sample Size in Random-Effects Meta-Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Marin-Martinez, Fulgencio; Sanchez-Meca, Julio

2010-01-01

Most of the statistical procedures in meta-analysis are based on the estimation of average effect sizes from a set of primary studies. The optimal weight for averaging a set of independent effect sizes is the inverse variance of each effect size, but in practice these weights have to be estimated, being affected by sampling error. When assuming a…

The variance of length of stay and the optimal DRG outlier payments.

PubMed

Felder, Stefan

2009-09-01

Prospective payment schemes in health care often include supply-side insurance for cost outliers. In hospital reimbursement, prospective payments for patient discharges, based on their classification into diagnosis related group (DRGs), are complemented by outlier payments for long stay patients. The outlier scheme fixes the length of stay (LOS) threshold, constraining the profit risk of the hospitals. In most DRG systems, this threshold increases with the standard deviation of the LOS distribution. The present paper addresses the adequacy of this DRG outlier threshold rule for risk-averse hospitals with preferences depending on the expected value and the variance of profits. It first shows that the optimal threshold solves the hospital's tradeoff between higher profit risk and lower premium loading payments. It then demonstrates for normally distributed truncated LOS that the optimal outlier threshold indeed decreases with an increase in the standard deviation.

Decision support for operations and maintenance (DSOM) system

DOEpatents

Jarrell, Donald B [Kennewick, WA; Meador, Richard J [Richland, WA; Sisk, Daniel R [Richland, WA; Hatley, Darrel D [Kennewick, WA; Brown, Daryl R [Richland, WA; Keibel, Gary R [Richland, WA; Gowri, Krishnan [Richland, WA; Reyes-Spindola, Jorge F [Richland, WA; Adams, Kevin J [San Bruno, CA; Yates, Kenneth R [Lake Oswego, OR; Eschbach, Elizabeth J [Fort Collins, CO; Stratton, Rex C [Richland, WA

2006-03-21

A method for minimizing the life cycle cost of processes such as heating a building. The method utilizes sensors to monitor various pieces of equipment used in the process, for example, boilers, turbines, and the like. The method then performs the steps of identifying a set optimal operating conditions for the process, identifying and measuring parameters necessary to characterize the actual operating condition of the process, validating data generated by measuring those parameters, characterizing the actual condition of the process, identifying an optimal condition corresponding to the actual condition, comparing said optimal condition with the actual condition and identifying variances between the two, and drawing from a set of pre-defined algorithms created using best engineering practices, an explanation of at least one likely source and at least one recommended remedial action for selected variances, and providing said explanation as an output to at least one user.

Optimal portfolio strategy with cross-correlation matrix composed by DCCA coefficients: Evidence from the Chinese stock market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Xuelian; Liu, Zixian

2016-02-01

In this paper, a new estimator of correlation matrix is proposed, which is composed of the detrended cross-correlation coefficients (DCCA coefficients), to improve portfolio optimization. In contrast to Pearson's correlation coefficients (PCC), DCCA coefficients acquired by the detrended cross-correlation analysis (DCCA) method can describe the nonlinear correlation between assets, and can be decomposed in different time scales. These properties of DCCA make it possible to improve the investment effect and more valuable to investigate the scale behaviors of portfolios. The minimum variance portfolio (MVP) model and the Mean-Variance (MV) model are used to evaluate the effectiveness of this improvement. Stability analysis shows the effect of two kinds of correlation matrices on the estimation error of portfolio weights. The observed scale behaviors are significant to risk management and could be used to optimize the portfolio selection.

Accounting for connectivity and spatial correlation in the optimal placement of wildlife habitat

Treesearch

John Hof; Curtis H. Flather

1996-01-01

This paper investigates optimization approaches to simultaneously modelling habitat fragmentation and spatial correlation between patch populations. The problem is formulated with habitat connectivity affecting population means and variances, with spatial correlations accounted for in covariance calculations. Population with a pre-specifled confidence level is then...

MIMO Sliding Mode Control for a Tailless Fighter Aircraft, An Alternative to Reconfigurable Architectures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wells, S. R.; Hess, R. A.

2002-01-01

A frequency-domain procedure for the design of sliding mode controllers for multi-input, multi-output (MIMO) systems is presented. The methodology accommodates the effects of parasitic dynamics such as those introduced by unmodeled actuators through the introduction of multiple asymptotic observers and model reference hedging. The design procedure includes a frequency domain approach to specify the sliding manifold, the observer eigenvalues, and the hedge model. The procedure is applied to the development of a flight control system for a linear model of the Innovative Control Effector (ICE) fighter aircraft. The stability and performance robustness of the resulting design is demonstrated through the introduction of significant degradation in the control effector actuators and variation in vehicle dynamics.

Effectiveness of simulation for improvement in self-efficacy among novice nurses: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Franklin, Ashley E; Lee, Christopher S

2014-11-01

The influence of simulation on self-efficacy for novice nurses has been reported inconsistently in the literature. Effect sizes across studies were synthesized using random-effects meta-analyses. Simulation improved self-efficacy in one-group, pretest-posttest studies (Hedge's g=1.21, 95% CI [0.63, 1.78]; p<0.001). Simulation also was favored over control teaching interventions in improving self-efficacy in studies with experimental designs (Hedge's g=0.27, 95% CI [0.1, 0.44]; p=0.002). In nonexperimental designs, consistent conclusions about the influence of simulation were tempered by significant between-study differences in effects. Simulation is effective at increasing self-efficacy among novice nurses, compared with traditional control groups. Copyright 2014, SLACK Incorporated.

Determination of the optimal level for combining area and yield estimates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bauer, M. E. (Principal Investigator); Hixson, M. M.; Jobusch, C. D.

1981-01-01

Several levels of obtaining both area and yield estimates of corn and soybeans in Iowa were considered: county, refined strata, refined/split strata, crop reporting district, and state. Using the CCEA model form and smoothed weather data, regression coefficients at each level were derived to compute yield and its variance. Variances were also computed with stratum level. The variance of the yield estimates was largest at the state and smallest at the county level for both crops. The refined strata had somewhat larger variances than those associated with the refined/split strata and CRD. For production estimates, the difference in standard deviations among levels was not large for corn, but for soybeans the standard deviation at the state level was more than 50% greater than for the other levels. The refined strata had the smallest standard deviations. The county level was not considered in evaluation of production estimates due to lack of county area variances.

Longitudinal design considerations to optimize power to detect variances and covariances among rates of change: Simulation results based on actual longitudinal studies

PubMed Central

Rast, Philippe; Hofer, Scott M.

2014-01-01

We investigated the power to detect variances and covariances in rates of change in the context of existing longitudinal studies using linear bivariate growth curve models. Power was estimated by means of Monte Carlo simulations. Our findings show that typical longitudinal study designs have substantial power to detect both variances and covariances among rates of change in a variety of cognitive, physical functioning, and mental health outcomes. We performed simulations to investigate the interplay among number and spacing of occasions, total duration of the study, effect size, and error variance on power and required sample size. The relation between growth rate reliability (GRR) and effect size to the sample size required to detect power ≥ .80 was non-linear, with rapidly decreasing sample sizes needed as GRR increases. The results presented here stand in contrast to previous simulation results and recommendations (Hertzog, Lindenberger, Ghisletta, & von Oertzen, 2006; Hertzog, von Oertzen, Ghisletta, & Lindenberger, 2008; von Oertzen, Ghisletta, & Lindenberger, 2010), which are limited due to confounds between study length and number of waves, error variance with GCR, and parameter values which are largely out of bounds of actual study values. Power to detect change is generally low in the early phases (i.e. first years) of longitudinal studies but can substantially increase if the design is optimized. We recommend additional assessments, including embedded intensive measurement designs, to improve power in the early phases of long-term longitudinal studies. PMID:24219544

Optimizing occupational exposure measurement strategies when estimating the log-scale arithmetic mean value--an example from the reinforced plastics industry.

PubMed

Lampa, Erik G; Nilsson, Leif; Liljelind, Ingrid E; Bergdahl, Ingvar A

2006-06-01

When assessing occupational exposures, repeated measurements are in most cases required. Repeated measurements are more resource intensive than a single measurement, so careful planning of the measurement strategy is necessary to assure that resources are spent wisely. The optimal strategy depends on the objectives of the measurements. Here, two different models of random effects analysis of variance (ANOVA) are proposed for the optimization of measurement strategies by the minimization of the variance of the estimated log-transformed arithmetic mean value of a worker group, i.e. the strategies are optimized for precise estimation of that value. The first model is a one-way random effects ANOVA model. For that model it is shown that the best precision in the estimated mean value is always obtained by including as many workers as possible in the sample while restricting the number of replicates to two or at most three regardless of the size of the variance components. The second model introduces the 'shared temporal variation' which accounts for those random temporal fluctuations of the exposure that the workers have in common. It is shown for that model that the optimal sample allocation depends on the relative sizes of the between-worker component and the shared temporal component, so that if the between-worker component is larger than the shared temporal component more workers should be included in the sample and vice versa. The results are illustrated graphically with an example from the reinforced plastics industry. If there exists a shared temporal variation at a workplace, that variability needs to be accounted for in the sampling design and the more complex model is recommended.

Can Optimism, Pessimism, Hope, Treatment Credibility and Treatment Expectancy Be Distinguished in Patients Undergoing Total Hip and Total Knee Arthroplasty?

PubMed Central

Haanstra, Tsjitske M.; Tilbury, Claire; Kamper, Steven J.; Tordoir, Rutger L.; Vliet Vlieland, Thea P. M.; Nelissen, Rob G. H. H.; Cuijpers, Pim; de Vet, Henrica C. W.; Dekker, Joost; Knol, Dirk L.; Ostelo, Raymond W.

2015-01-01

Objectives The constructs optimism, pessimism, hope, treatment credibility and treatment expectancy are associated with outcomes of medical treatment. While these constructs are grounded in different theoretical models, they nonetheless show some conceptual overlap. The purpose of this study was to examine whether currently available measurement instruments for these constructs capture the conceptual differences between these constructs within a treatment setting. Methods Patients undergoing Total Hip and Total Knee Arthroplasty (THA and TKA) (Total N = 361; 182 THA; 179 TKA), completed the Life Orientation Test-Revised for optimism and pessimism, the Hope Scale, the Credibility Expectancy Questionnaire for treatment credibility and treatment expectancy. Confirmatory factor analysis was used to examine whether the instruments measure distinct constructs. Four theory-driven models with one, two, four and five latent factors were evaluated using multiple fit indices and Δχ2 tests, followed by some posthoc models. Results The results of the theory driven confirmatory factor analysis showed that a five factor model in which all constructs loaded on separate factors yielded the most optimal and satisfactory fit. Posthoc, a bifactor model in which (besides the 5 separate factors) a general factor is hypothesized accounting for the commonality of the items showed a significantly better fit than the five factor model. All specific factors, except for the hope factor, showed to explain a substantial amount of variance beyond the general factor. Conclusion Based on our primary analyses we conclude that optimism, pessimism, hope, treatment credibility and treatment expectancy are distinguishable in THA and TKA patients. Postdoc, we determined that all constructs, except hope, showed substantial specific variance, while also sharing some general variance. PMID:26214176

Can Optimism, Pessimism, Hope, Treatment Credibility and Treatment Expectancy Be Distinguished in Patients Undergoing Total Hip and Total Knee Arthroplasty?

PubMed

Haanstra, Tsjitske M; Tilbury, Claire; Kamper, Steven J; Tordoir, Rutger L; Vliet Vlieland, Thea P M; Nelissen, Rob G H H; Cuijpers, Pim; de Vet, Henrica C W; Dekker, Joost; Knol, Dirk L; Ostelo, Raymond W

2015-01-01

The constructs optimism, pessimism, hope, treatment credibility and treatment expectancy are associated with outcomes of medical treatment. While these constructs are grounded in different theoretical models, they nonetheless show some conceptual overlap. The purpose of this study was to examine whether currently available measurement instruments for these constructs capture the conceptual differences between these constructs within a treatment setting. Patients undergoing Total Hip and Total Knee Arthroplasty (THA and TKA) (Total N = 361; 182 THA; 179 TKA), completed the Life Orientation Test-Revised for optimism and pessimism, the Hope Scale, the Credibility Expectancy Questionnaire for treatment credibility and treatment expectancy. Confirmatory factor analysis was used to examine whether the instruments measure distinct constructs. Four theory-driven models with one, two, four and five latent factors were evaluated using multiple fit indices and Δχ2 tests, followed by some posthoc models. The results of the theory driven confirmatory factor analysis showed that a five factor model in which all constructs loaded on separate factors yielded the most optimal and satisfactory fit. Posthoc, a bifactor model in which (besides the 5 separate factors) a general factor is hypothesized accounting for the commonality of the items showed a significantly better fit than the five factor model. All specific factors, except for the hope factor, showed to explain a substantial amount of variance beyond the general factor. Based on our primary analyses we conclude that optimism, pessimism, hope, treatment credibility and treatment expectancy are distinguishable in THA and TKA patients. Postdoc, we determined that all constructs, except hope, showed substantial specific variance, while also sharing some general variance.

GPZ: non-stationary sparse Gaussian processes for heteroscedastic uncertainty estimation in photometric redshifts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Almosallam, Ibrahim A.; Jarvis, Matt J.; Roberts, Stephen J.

2016-10-01

The next generation of cosmology experiments will be required to use photometric redshifts rather than spectroscopic redshifts. Obtaining accurate and well-characterized photometric redshift distributions is therefore critical for Euclid, the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope and the Square Kilometre Array. However, determining accurate variance predictions alongside single point estimates is crucial, as they can be used to optimize the sample of galaxies for the specific experiment (e.g. weak lensing, baryon acoustic oscillations, supernovae), trading off between completeness and reliability in the galaxy sample. The various sources of uncertainty in measurements of the photometry and redshifts put a lower bound on the accuracy that any model can hope to achieve. The intrinsic uncertainty associated with estimates is often non-uniform and input-dependent, commonly known in statistics as heteroscedastic noise. However, existing approaches are susceptible to outliers and do not take into account variance induced by non-uniform data density and in most cases require manual tuning of many parameters. In this paper, we present a Bayesian machine learning approach that jointly optimizes the model with respect to both the predictive mean and variance we refer to as Gaussian processes for photometric redshifts (GPZ). The predictive variance of the model takes into account both the variance due to data density and photometric noise. Using the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) DR12 data, we show that our approach substantially outperforms other machine learning methods for photo-z estimation and their associated variance, such as TPZ and ANNZ2. We provide a MATLAB and PYTHON implementations that are available to download at https://github.com/OxfordML/GPz.

Mean-variance portfolio selection for defined-contribution pension funds with stochastic salary.

PubMed

Zhang, Chubing

2014-01-01

This paper focuses on a continuous-time dynamic mean-variance portfolio selection problem of defined-contribution pension funds with stochastic salary, whose risk comes from both financial market and nonfinancial market. By constructing a special Riccati equation as a continuous (actually a viscosity) solution to the HJB equation, we obtain an explicit closed form solution for the optimal investment portfolio as well as the efficient frontier.

TARGETED SEQUENTIAL DESIGN FOR TARGETED LEARNING INFERENCE OF THE OPTIMAL TREATMENT RULE AND ITS MEAN REWARD.

PubMed

Chambaz, Antoine; Zheng, Wenjing; van der Laan, Mark J

2017-01-01

This article studies the targeted sequential inference of an optimal treatment rule (TR) and its mean reward in the non-exceptional case, i.e. , assuming that there is no stratum of the baseline covariates where treatment is neither beneficial nor harmful, and under a companion margin assumption. Our pivotal estimator, whose definition hinges on the targeted minimum loss estimation (TMLE) principle, actually infers the mean reward under the current estimate of the optimal TR. This data-adaptive statistical parameter is worthy of interest on its own. Our main result is a central limit theorem which enables the construction of confidence intervals on both mean rewards under the current estimate of the optimal TR and under the optimal TR itself. The asymptotic variance of the estimator takes the form of the variance of an efficient influence curve at a limiting distribution, allowing to discuss the efficiency of inference. As a by product, we also derive confidence intervals on two cumulated pseudo-regrets, a key notion in the study of bandits problems. A simulation study illustrates the procedure. One of the corner-stones of the theoretical study is a new maximal inequality for martingales with respect to the uniform entropy integral.

On the design of classifiers for crop inventories

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Heydorn, R. P.; Takacs, H. C.

1986-01-01

Crop proportion estimators that use classifications of satellite data to correct, in an additive way, a given estimate acquired from ground observations are discussed. A linear version of these estimators is optimal, in terms of minimum variance, when the regression of the ground observations onto the satellite observations in linear. When this regression is not linear, but the reverse regression (satellite observations onto ground observations) is linear, the estimator is suboptimal but still has certain appealing variance properties. In this paper expressions are derived for those regressions which relate the intercepts and slopes to conditional classification probabilities. These expressions are then used to discuss the question of classifier designs that can lead to low-variance crop proportion estimates. Variance expressions for these estimates in terms of classifier omission and commission errors are also derived.

The invasiveness of Hypochaeris glabra (Asteraceae): Responses in morphological and reproductive traits for exotic populations.

PubMed

Martín-Forés, Irene; Acosta-Gallo, Belén; Castro, Isabel; de Miguel, José M; Del Pozo, Alejandro; Casado, Miguel A

2018-01-01

Scientists have been interested in many topics driven by biological invasions, such as shifts in the area of distribution of plant species and rapid evolution. Invasiveness of exotic plant species depends on variations on morphological and reproductive traits potentially associated with reproductive fitness and dispersal ability, which are expected to undergo changes during the invasion process. Numerous Asteraceae are invasive and display dimorphic fruits, resulting in a bet-hedging dispersal strategy -wind-dispersed fruits versus animal-dispersed fruits-. We explored phenotypic differentiation in seed morphology and reproductive traits of exotic (Chilean) and native (Spanish) populations of Hypochaeris glabra. We collected flower heads from five Spanish and five Chilean populations along rainfall gradients in both countries. We planted seeds from the ten populations in a common garden trial within the exotic range to explore their performance depending on the country of origin (native or exotic) and the environmental conditions at population origin (precipitation and nutrient availability). We scored plant biomass, reproductive traits and fruit dimorphism patterns. We observed a combination of bet-hedging strategy together with phenotypic differentiation. Native populations relied more on bet-hedging while exotic populations always displayed greater proportion of wind-dispersed fruits than native ones. This pattern may reflect a strategy that might entail a more efficient long distance dispersal of H. glabra seeds in the exotic range, which in turn can enhance the invasiveness of this species.

[Effects of Family Support Programs for Caregivers of People with Dementia - Caregiving Burden, Depression, and Stress: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis].

PubMed

Park, Seyeon; Park, Myonghwa

2015-10-01

The objective of this systematic review was to assess the effects of family support programs on caregiving burden, depression, and stress in family caregivers of people with dementia. A literature search was conducted of electronic databases to identify randomized controlled studies with family support programs done between 2000 and 2014. Studies published in English and/or Korean were included for the analysis with search strategies adapted from the Cochrane Dementia and Cognitive Improvement Group. Studies were rated for quality assessment by two independent reviewers using the appraisal checklist developed by Cochrane Reviews and Dissemination. Of 8,334 articles identified in the literature search, full texts of 76 articles that met the inclusion criteria were reviewed and 38 were found to include relevant outcomes. Results from selected studies were pooled in statistical meta-analysis using Review Manager Software and heterogeneity between combined studies was assessed using the Chi-square test. Meta-analysis showed that the effect sizes of family caregiver support programs were small to medium for categories of caregiving burden (Hedge's g=-0.17, 95% CI=-0.30~-0.04), depression (Hedge's g=-0.30, 95% CI=-0.40~-0.20), and stress (Hedge's g=-0.39, 95% CI=-0.52~-0.25). The review results indicate that a support programs can assist family caregivers in reducing their psycho-emotional distress.

Firefly algorithm for cardinality constrained mean-variance portfolio optimization problem with entropy diversity constraint.

PubMed

Bacanin, Nebojsa; Tuba, Milan

2014-01-01

Portfolio optimization (selection) problem is an important and hard optimization problem that, with the addition of necessary realistic constraints, becomes computationally intractable. Nature-inspired metaheuristics are appropriate for solving such problems; however, literature review shows that there are very few applications of nature-inspired metaheuristics to portfolio optimization problem. This is especially true for swarm intelligence algorithms which represent the newer branch of nature-inspired algorithms. No application of any swarm intelligence metaheuristics to cardinality constrained mean-variance (CCMV) portfolio problem with entropy constraint was found in the literature. This paper introduces modified firefly algorithm (FA) for the CCMV portfolio model with entropy constraint. Firefly algorithm is one of the latest, very successful swarm intelligence algorithm; however, it exhibits some deficiencies when applied to constrained problems. To overcome lack of exploration power during early iterations, we modified the algorithm and tested it on standard portfolio benchmark data sets used in the literature. Our proposed modified firefly algorithm proved to be better than other state-of-the-art algorithms, while introduction of entropy diversity constraint further improved results.

Firefly Algorithm for Cardinality Constrained Mean-Variance Portfolio Optimization Problem with Entropy Diversity Constraint

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Portfolio optimization (selection) problem is an important and hard optimization problem that, with the addition of necessary realistic constraints, becomes computationally intractable. Nature-inspired metaheuristics are appropriate for solving such problems; however, literature review shows that there are very few applications of nature-inspired metaheuristics to portfolio optimization problem. This is especially true for swarm intelligence algorithms which represent the newer branch of nature-inspired algorithms. No application of any swarm intelligence metaheuristics to cardinality constrained mean-variance (CCMV) portfolio problem with entropy constraint was found in the literature. This paper introduces modified firefly algorithm (FA) for the CCMV portfolio model with entropy constraint. Firefly algorithm is one of the latest, very successful swarm intelligence algorithm; however, it exhibits some deficiencies when applied to constrained problems. To overcome lack of exploration power during early iterations, we modified the algorithm and tested it on standard portfolio benchmark data sets used in the literature. Our proposed modified firefly algorithm proved to be better than other state-of-the-art algorithms, while introduction of entropy diversity constraint further improved results. PMID:24991645

Robust optimization of supersonic ORC nozzle guide vanes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bufi, Elio A.; Cinnella, Paola

2017-03-01

An efficient Robust Optimization (RO) strategy is developed for the design of 2D supersonic Organic Rankine Cycle turbine expanders. The dense gas effects are not-negligible for this application and they are taken into account describing the thermodynamics by means of the Peng-Robinson-Stryjek-Vera equation of state. The design methodology combines an Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) loop based on a Bayesian kriging model of the system response to the uncertain parameters, used to approximate statistics (mean and variance) of the uncertain system output, a CFD solver, and a multi-objective non-dominated sorting algorithm (NSGA), also based on a Kriging surrogate of the multi-objective fitness function, along with an adaptive infill strategy for surrogate enrichment at each generation of the NSGA. The objective functions are the average and variance of the isentropic efficiency. The blade shape is parametrized by means of a Free Form Deformation (FFD) approach. The robust optimal blades are compared to the baseline design (based on the Method of Characteristics) and to a blade obtained by means of a deterministic CFD-based optimization.

Cascara

MedlinePlus

... heart damage. Herbs that contain cardiac glycosides include black hellebore, Canadian hemp roots, digitalis leaf, hedge mustard, ... Other stimulant laxative herbs are aloe, alder buckthorn, black root, blue flag, butternut bark, colocynth, European buckthorn, ...

Internationalizing Student Learning and Development

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Roberts, Dennis C.; Komives, Susan R.

2016-01-01

Best practices in internationalizing student learning and development require cultural critical analysis before transferring, adapting, hedging, or avoiding existing practices in cross-border applications both in and beyond the classroom.

Minimum Variance Distortionless Response Beamformer with Enhanced Nulling Level Control via Dynamic Mutated Artificial Immune System

PubMed Central

Kiong, Tiong Sieh; Salem, S. Balasem; Paw, Johnny Koh Siaw; Sankar, K. Prajindra

2014-01-01

In smart antenna applications, the adaptive beamforming technique is used to cancel interfering signals (placing nulls) and produce or steer a strong beam toward the target signal according to the calculated weight vectors. Minimum variance distortionless response (MVDR) beamforming is capable of determining the weight vectors for beam steering; however, its nulling level on the interference sources remains unsatisfactory. Beamforming can be considered as an optimization problem, such that optimal weight vector should be obtained through computation. Hence, in this paper, a new dynamic mutated artificial immune system (DM-AIS) is proposed to enhance MVDR beamforming for controlling the null steering of interference and increase the signal to interference noise ratio (SINR) for wanted signals. PMID:25003136

Minimum variance distortionless response beamformer with enhanced nulling level control via dynamic mutated artificial immune system.

PubMed

Kiong, Tiong Sieh; Salem, S Balasem; Paw, Johnny Koh Siaw; Sankar, K Prajindra; Darzi, Soodabeh

2014-01-01

In smart antenna applications, the adaptive beamforming technique is used to cancel interfering signals (placing nulls) and produce or steer a strong beam toward the target signal according to the calculated weight vectors. Minimum variance distortionless response (MVDR) beamforming is capable of determining the weight vectors for beam steering; however, its nulling level on the interference sources remains unsatisfactory. Beamforming can be considered as an optimization problem, such that optimal weight vector should be obtained through computation. Hence, in this paper, a new dynamic mutated artificial immune system (DM-AIS) is proposed to enhance MVDR beamforming for controlling the null steering of interference and increase the signal to interference noise ratio (SINR) for wanted signals.

A VLBI variance-covariance analysis interactive computer program. M.S. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bock, Y.

1980-01-01

An interactive computer program (in FORTRAN) for the variance covariance analysis of VLBI experiments is presented for use in experiment planning, simulation studies and optimal design problems. The interactive mode is especially suited to these types of analyses providing ease of operation as well as savings in time and cost. The geodetic parameters include baseline vector parameters and variations in polar motion and Earth rotation. A discussion of the theroy on which the program is based provides an overview of the VLBI process emphasizing the areas of interest to geodesy. Special emphasis is placed on the problem of determining correlations between simultaneous observations from a network of stations. A model suitable for covariance analyses is presented. Suggestions towards developing optimal observation schedules are included.

Susceptibility-weighted imaging using inter-echo-variance channel combination for improved contrast at 7 tesla.

PubMed

Hosseini, Zahra; Liu, Junmin; Solovey, Igor; Menon, Ravi S; Drangova, Maria

2017-04-01

To implement and optimize a new approach for susceptibility-weighted image (SWI) generation from multi-echo multi-channel image data and compare its performance against optimized traditional SWI pipelines. Five healthy volunteers were imaged at 7 Tesla. The inter-echo-variance (IEV) channel combination, which uses the variance of the local frequency shift at multiple echo times as a weighting factor during channel combination, was used to calculate multi-echo local phase shift maps. Linear phase masks were combined with the magnitude to generate IEV-SWI. The performance of the IEV-SWI pipeline was compared with that of two accepted SWI pipelines-channel combination followed by (i) Homodyne filtering (HPH-SWI) and (ii) unwrapping and high-pass filtering (SVD-SWI). The filtering steps of each pipeline were optimized. Contrast-to-noise ratio was used as the comparison metric. Qualitative assessment of artifact and vessel conspicuity was performed and processing time of pipelines was evaluated. The optimized IEV-SWI pipeline (σ = 7 mm) resulted in continuous vessel visibility throughout the brain. IEV-SWI had significantly higher contrast compared with HPH-SWI and SVD-SWI (P < 0.001, Friedman nonparametric test). Residual background fields and phase wraps in HPH-SWI and SVD-SWI corrupted the vessel signal and/or generated vessel-mimicking artifact. Optimized implementation of the IEV-SWI pipeline processed a six-echo 16-channel dataset in under 10 min. IEV-SWI benefits from channel-by-channel processing of phase data and results in high contrast images with an optimal balance between contrast and background noise removal, thereby presenting evidence of importance of the order in which postprocessing techniques are applied for multi-channel SWI generation. 2 J. Magn. Reson. Imaging 2017;45:1113-1124. © 2016 International Society for Magnetic Resonance in Medicine.

Exposure of US multinational corporations to foreign exchange fluctuations arising from the translation of the financial statements of their offshore subsidiaries

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Doukas, P.G.

1984-01-01

This study examines the nature of balance-sheet exposures (as opposed to transaction and economic exposures), arising from the translation of financial statements from one currency to another. A survey of 130 multinationals concludes that corporations viewed as economic what could actually affect their reported earnings and consequently stock prices in a material way. As a result, about 60% of the companies surveyed apparently hedged some part of their balance-sheet exposures under FAS-8. However, only four companies hedge under the new translation rules prescribed by FAS-52, which allows translation gains and losses to be posted directly to equity. A test ofmore » stock-price reaction to the disclo« less

A Black-Scholes Approach to Satisfying the Demand in a Failure-Prone Manufacturing System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chavez-Fuentes, Jorge R.; Gonzalex, Oscar R.; Gray, W. Steven

2007-01-01

The goal of this paper is to use a financial model and a hedging strategy in a systems application. In particular, the classical Black-Scholes model, which was developed in 1973 to find the fair price of a financial contract, is adapted to satisfy an uncertain demand in a manufacturing system when one of two production machines is unreliable. This financial model together with a hedging strategy are used to develop a closed formula for the production strategies of each machine. The strategy guarantees that the uncertain demand will be met in probability at the final time of the production process. It is assumed that the production efficiency of the unreliable machine can be modeled as a continuous-time stochastic process. Two simple examples illustrate the result.

Drought and Heat Wave Impacts on Electricity Grid Reliability in Illinois

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stillwell, A. S.; Lubega, W. N.

2016-12-01

A large proportion of thermal power plants in the United States use cooling systems that discharge large volumes of heated water into rivers and cooling ponds. To minimize thermal pollution from these discharges, restrictions are placed on temperatures at the edge of defined mixing zones in the receiving waters. However, during extended hydrological droughts and heat waves, power plants are often granted thermal variances permitting them to exceed these temperature restrictions. These thermal variances are often deemed necessary for maintaining electricity reliability, particularly as heat waves cause increased electricity demand. Current practice, however, lacks tools for the development of grid-scale operational policies specifying generator output levels that ensure reliable electricity supply while minimizing thermal variances. Such policies must take into consideration characteristics of individual power plants, topology and characteristics of the electricity grid, and locations of power plants within the river basin. In this work, we develop a methodology for the development of these operational policies that captures necessary factors. We develop optimal rules for different hydrological and meteorological conditions, serving as rule curves for thermal power plants. The rules are conditioned on leading modes of the ambient hydrological and meteorological conditions at the different power plant locations, as the locations are geographically close and hydrologically connected. Heat dissipation in the rivers and cooling ponds is modeled using the equilibrium temperature concept. Optimal rules are determined through a Monte Carlo sampling optimization framework. The methodology is applied to a case study of eight power plants in Illinois that were granted thermal variances in the summer of 2012, with a representative electricity grid model used in place of the actual electricity grid.

Mean-Variance Portfolio Selection for Defined-Contribution Pension Funds with Stochastic Salary

PubMed Central

Zhang, Chubing

2014-01-01

This paper focuses on a continuous-time dynamic mean-variance portfolio selection problem of defined-contribution pension funds with stochastic salary, whose risk comes from both financial market and nonfinancial market. By constructing a special Riccati equation as a continuous (actually a viscosity) solution to the HJB equation, we obtain an explicit closed form solution for the optimal investment portfolio as well as the efficient frontier. PMID:24782667

Optimizing Aircraft Availability: Where to Spend Your Next O&M Dollar

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-03-01

patterns of variance are present. In addition, we use the Breusch - Pagan test to statistically determine whether homoscedasticity exists. For this... Breusch - Pagan test , large p-values are preferred so that we may accept the null hypothesis of normality. Failure to meet the fourth assumption is...Next, we show the residual by predicted plot and the Breusch - Pagan test for constant variance of the residuals. The null hypothesis is that the

Meta-analysis with missing study-level sample variance data.

PubMed

Chowdhry, Amit K; Dworkin, Robert H; McDermott, Michael P

2016-07-30

We consider a study-level meta-analysis with a normally distributed outcome variable and possibly unequal study-level variances, where the object of inference is the difference in means between a treatment and control group. A common complication in such an analysis is missing sample variances for some studies. A frequently used approach is to impute the weighted (by sample size) mean of the observed variances (mean imputation). Another approach is to include only those studies with variances reported (complete case analysis). Both mean imputation and complete case analysis are only valid under the missing-completely-at-random assumption, and even then the inverse variance weights produced are not necessarily optimal. We propose a multiple imputation method employing gamma meta-regression to impute the missing sample variances. Our method takes advantage of study-level covariates that may be used to provide information about the missing data. Through simulation studies, we show that multiple imputation, when the imputation model is correctly specified, is superior to competing methods in terms of confidence interval coverage probability and type I error probability when testing a specified group difference. Finally, we describe a similar approach to handling missing variances in cross-over studies. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Modelling heterogeneity variances in multiple treatment comparison meta-analysis--are informative priors the better solution?

PubMed

Thorlund, Kristian; Thabane, Lehana; Mills, Edward J

2013-01-11

Multiple treatment comparison (MTC) meta-analyses are commonly modeled in a Bayesian framework, and weakly informative priors are typically preferred to mirror familiar data driven frequentist approaches. Random-effects MTCs have commonly modeled heterogeneity under the assumption that the between-trial variance for all involved treatment comparisons are equal (i.e., the 'common variance' assumption). This approach 'borrows strength' for heterogeneity estimation across treatment comparisons, and thus, ads valuable precision when data is sparse. The homogeneous variance assumption, however, is unrealistic and can severely bias variance estimates. Consequently 95% credible intervals may not retain nominal coverage, and treatment rank probabilities may become distorted. Relaxing the homogeneous variance assumption may be equally problematic due to reduced precision. To regain good precision, moderately informative variance priors or additional mathematical assumptions may be necessary. In this paper we describe four novel approaches to modeling heterogeneity variance - two novel model structures, and two approaches for use of moderately informative variance priors. We examine the relative performance of all approaches in two illustrative MTC data sets. We particularly compare between-study heterogeneity estimates and model fits, treatment effect estimates and 95% credible intervals, and treatment rank probabilities. In both data sets, use of moderately informative variance priors constructed from the pair wise meta-analysis data yielded the best model fit and narrower credible intervals. Imposing consistency equations on variance estimates, assuming variances to be exchangeable, or using empirically informed variance priors also yielded good model fits and narrow credible intervals. The homogeneous variance model yielded high precision at all times, but overall inadequate estimates of between-trial variances. Lastly, treatment rankings were similar among the novel approaches, but considerably different when compared with the homogenous variance approach. MTC models using a homogenous variance structure appear to perform sub-optimally when between-trial variances vary between comparisons. Using informative variance priors, assuming exchangeability or imposing consistency between heterogeneity variances can all ensure sufficiently reliable and realistic heterogeneity estimation, and thus more reliable MTC inferences. All four approaches should be viable candidates for replacing or supplementing the conventional homogeneous variance MTC model, which is currently the most widely used in practice.

Meta-heuristic CRPS minimization for the calibration of short-range probabilistic forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohammadi, Seyedeh Atefeh; Rahmani, Morteza; Azadi, Majid

2016-08-01

This paper deals with the probabilistic short-range temperature forecasts over synoptic meteorological stations across Iran using non-homogeneous Gaussian regression (NGR). NGR creates a Gaussian forecast probability density function (PDF) from the ensemble output. The mean of the normal predictive PDF is a bias-corrected weighted average of the ensemble members and its variance is a linear function of the raw ensemble variance. The coefficients for the mean and variance are estimated by minimizing the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) during a training period. CRPS is a scoring rule for distributional forecasts. In the paper of Gneiting et al. (Mon Weather Rev 133:1098-1118, 2005), Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno (BFGS) method is used to minimize the CRPS. Since BFGS is a conventional optimization method with its own limitations, we suggest using the particle swarm optimization (PSO), a robust meta-heuristic method, to minimize the CRPS. The ensemble prediction system used in this study consists of nine different configurations of the weather research and forecasting model for 48-h forecasts of temperature during autumn and winter 2011 and 2012. The probabilistic forecasts were evaluated using several common verification scores including Brier score, attribute diagram and rank histogram. Results show that both BFGS and PSO find the optimal solution and show the same evaluation scores, but PSO can do this with a feasible random first guess and much less computational complexity.

Hedge Fund Transparency Act

THOMAS, 111th Congress

Sen. Grassley, Chuck [R-IA

2009-01-29

Senate - 01/29/2009 Read twice and referred to the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs. (All Actions) Tracker: This bill has the status IntroducedHere are the steps for Status of Legislation:

Angiotensin II receptor blockade or deletion of vascular endothelial ACE does not prevent vascular dysfunction and remodeling in 20-HETE-dependent hypertension.

PubMed

Garcia, Victor; Joseph, Gregory; Shkolnik, Brian; Ding, Yan; Zhang, Frank Fan; Gotlinger, Katherine; Falck, John R; Dakarapu, Rambabu; Capdevila, Jorge H; Bernstein, Kenneth E; Schwartzman, Michal Laniado

2015-07-01

Increased vascular 20-HETE is associated with hypertension and activation of the renin-angiotensin system (RAS) through induction of vascular angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) expression. Cyp4a12tg mice, whose Cyp4a12-20-HETE synthase expression is under the control of a tetracycline (doxycycline, DOX) promoter, were used to assess the contribution of ACE/RAS to microvascular remodeling in 20-HETE-dependent hypertension. Treatment of Cyp4a12tg mice with DOX increased systolic blood pressure (SBP; 136 ± 2 vs. 102 ± 1 mmHg; P < 0.05), and this increase was prevented by administration of 20-HEDGE, lisinopril, or losartan. DOX-induced hypertension was associated with microvascular dysfunction and remodeling of preglomerular microvessels, which was prevented by 20-HEDGE, a 20-HETE antagonist, yet only lessened, but not prevented, by lisinopril or losartan. In ACE 3/3 mice, which lack vascular endothelial ACE, administration of 5α-dihydrotestosterone (DHT), a known inducer of 20-HETE production, increased SBP; however, the increase was about 50% of that in wild-type (WT) mice (151 ± 1 vs. 126 ± 1 mmHg). Losartan and 20-HEDGE prevented the DHT-induced increase in SBP in WT and ACE 3/3 mice. DHT treatment increased 20-HETE production and microvascular remodeling in WT and ACE 3/3 mice; however, remodeling was attenuated in the ACE 3/3 mice as opposed to WT mice (15.83 ± 1.11 vs. 22.17 ± 0.92 μm; P < 0.05). 20-HEDGE prevented microvascular remodeling in WT and ACE 3/3 mice, while losartan had no effect on microvascular remodeling in ACE 3/3. Taken together, these results suggest that RAS contributes to 20-HETE-mediated microvascular remodeling in hypertension and that 20-HETE-driven microvascular remodeling independent of blood pressure elevation does not fully rely on ACE activity in the vascular endothelium. Copyright © 2015 the American Physiological Society.

Optimal cue integration in ants.

PubMed

Wystrach, Antoine; Mangan, Michael; Webb, Barbara

2015-10-07

In situations with redundant or competing sensory information, humans have been shown to perform cue integration, weighting different cues according to their certainty in a quantifiably optimal manner. Ants have been shown to merge the directional information available from their path integration (PI) and visual memory, but as yet it is not clear that they do so in a way that reflects the relative certainty of the cues. In this study, we manipulate the variance of the PI home vector by allowing ants (Cataglyphis velox) to run different distances and testing their directional choice when the PI vector direction is put in competition with visual memory. Ants show progressively stronger weighting of their PI direction as PI length increases. The weighting is quantitatively predicted by modelling the expected directional variance of home vectors of different lengths and assuming optimal cue integration. However, a subsequent experiment suggests ants may not actually compute an internal estimate of the PI certainty, but are using the PI home vector length as a proxy. © 2015 The Author(s).

Design of a compensation for an ARMA model of a discrete time system. M.S. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mainemer, C. I.

1978-01-01

The design of an optimal dynamic compensator for a multivariable discrete time system is studied. Also the design of compensators to achieve minimum variance control strategies for single input single output systems is analyzed. In the first problem the initial conditions of the plant are random variables with known first and second order moments, and the cost is the expected value of the standard cost, quadratic in the states and controls. The compensator is based on the minimum order Luenberger observer and it is found optimally by minimizing a performance index. Necessary and sufficient conditions for optimality of the compensator are derived. The second problem is solved in three different ways; two of them working directly in the frequency domain and one working in the time domain. The first and second order moments of the initial conditions are irrelevant to the solution. Necessary and sufficient conditions are derived for the compensator to minimize the variance of the output.

A diffusion-based approach to stochastic individual growth and energy budget, with consequences to life-history optimization and population dynamics.

PubMed

Filin, I

2009-06-01

Using diffusion processes, I model stochastic individual growth, given exogenous hazards and starvation risk. By maximizing survival to final size, optimal life histories (e.g. switching size for habitat/dietary shift) are determined by two ratios: mean growth rate over growth variance (diffusion coefficient) and mortality rate over mean growth rate; all are size dependent. For example, switching size decreases with either ratio, if both are positive. I provide examples and compare with previous work on risk-sensitive foraging and the energy-predation trade-off. I then decompose individual size into reversibly and irreversibly growing components, e.g. reserves and structure. I provide a general expression for optimal structural growth, when reserves grow stochastically. I conclude that increased growth variance of reserves delays structural growth (raises threshold size for its commencement) but may eventually lead to larger structures. The effect depends on whether the structural trait is related to foraging or defence. Implications for population dynamics are discussed.

Gaussian processes with optimal kernel construction for neuro-degenerative clinical onset prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Canas, Liane S.; Yvernault, Benjamin; Cash, David M.; Molteni, Erika; Veale, Tom; Benzinger, Tammie; Ourselin, Sébastien; Mead, Simon; Modat, Marc

2018-02-01

Gaussian Processes (GP) are a powerful tool to capture the complex time-variations of a dataset. In the context of medical imaging analysis, they allow a robust modelling even in case of highly uncertain or incomplete datasets. Predictions from GP are dependent of the covariance kernel function selected to explain the data variance. To overcome this limitation, we propose a framework to identify the optimal covariance kernel function to model the data.The optimal kernel is defined as a composition of base kernel functions used to identify correlation patterns between data points. Our approach includes a modified version of the Compositional Kernel Learning (CKL) algorithm, in which we score the kernel families using a new energy function that depends both the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and the explained variance score. We applied the proposed framework to model the progression of neurodegenerative diseases over time, in particular the progression of autosomal dominantly-inherited Alzheimer's disease, and use it to predict the time to clinical onset of subjects carrying genetic mutation.

Likelihood Ratio, Optimal Decision Rules, and Relationship between Proportion Correct and d' in the Dual-Pair AB vs BA identification Paradigm

PubMed Central

Micheyl, Christophe; Dai, Huanping

2010-01-01

The equal-variance Gaussian signal-detection-theory (SDT) decision model for the dual-pair change-detection (or “4IAX”) paradigm has been described in earlier publications. In this note, we consider the equal-variance Gaussian SDT model for the related dual-pair AB vs BA identification paradigm. The likelihood ratios, optimal decision rules, receiver operating characteristics (ROCs), and relationships between d' and proportion-correct (PC) are analyzed for two special cases: that of statistically independent observations, which is likely to apply in constant-stimuli experiments, and that of highly correlated observations, which is likely to apply in experiments where stimuli are roved widely across trials or pairs. A surprising outcome of this analysis is that although these two situations lead to different optimal decision rules, the predicted ROCs and proportions of correct responses (PCs) for these two cases are not substantially different, and are either identical or similar to those observed in the basic Yes-No paradigm. PMID:19633356

An efficient sampling approach for variance-based sensitivity analysis based on the law of total variance in the successive intervals without overlapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yun, Wanying; Lu, Zhenzhou; Jiang, Xian

2018-06-01

To efficiently execute the variance-based global sensitivity analysis, the law of total variance in the successive intervals without overlapping is proved at first, on which an efficient space-partition sampling-based approach is subsequently proposed in this paper. Through partitioning the sample points of output into different subsets according to different inputs, the proposed approach can efficiently evaluate all the main effects concurrently by one group of sample points. In addition, there is no need for optimizing the partition scheme in the proposed approach. The maximum length of subintervals is decreased by increasing the number of sample points of model input variables in the proposed approach, which guarantees the convergence condition of the space-partition approach well. Furthermore, a new interpretation on the thought of partition is illuminated from the perspective of the variance ratio function. Finally, three test examples and one engineering application are employed to demonstrate the accuracy, efficiency and robustness of the proposed approach.

Development of a method of robust rain gauge network optimization based on intensity-duration-frequency results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chebbi, A.; Bargaoui, Z. K.; da Conceição Cunha, M.

2013-10-01

Based on rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves, fitted in several locations of a given area, a robust optimization approach is proposed to identify the best locations to install new rain gauges. The advantage of robust optimization is that the resulting design solutions yield networks which behave acceptably under hydrological variability. Robust optimization can overcome the problem of selecting representative rainfall events when building the optimization process. This paper reports an original approach based on Montana IDF model parameters. The latter are assumed to be geostatistical variables, and their spatial interdependence is taken into account through the adoption of cross-variograms in the kriging process. The problem of optimally locating a fixed number of new monitoring stations based on an existing rain gauge network is addressed. The objective function is based on the mean spatial kriging variance and rainfall variogram structure using a variance-reduction method. Hydrological variability was taken into account by considering and implementing several return periods to define the robust objective function. Variance minimization is performed using a simulated annealing algorithm. In addition, knowledge of the time horizon is needed for the computation of the robust objective function. A short- and a long-term horizon were studied, and optimal networks are identified for each. The method developed is applied to north Tunisia (area = 21 000 km2). Data inputs for the variogram analysis were IDF curves provided by the hydrological bureau and available for 14 tipping bucket type rain gauges. The recording period was from 1962 to 2001, depending on the station. The study concerns an imaginary network augmentation based on the network configuration in 1973, which is a very significant year in Tunisia because there was an exceptional regional flood event in March 1973. This network consisted of 13 stations and did not meet World Meteorological Organization (WMO) recommendations for the minimum spatial density. Therefore, it is proposed to augment it by 25, 50, 100 and 160% virtually, which is the rate that would meet WMO requirements. Results suggest that for a given augmentation robust networks remain stable overall for the two time horizons.

Rethinking the evolution of specialization: A model for the evolution of phenotypic heterogeneity.

PubMed

Rubin, Ilan N; Doebeli, Michael

2017-12-21

Phenotypic heterogeneity refers to genetically identical individuals that express different phenotypes, even when in the same environment. Traditionally, "bet-hedging" in fluctuating environments is offered as the explanation for the evolution of phenotypic heterogeneity. However, there are an increasing number of examples of microbial populations that display phenotypic heterogeneity in stable environments. Here we present an evolutionary model of phenotypic heterogeneity of microbial metabolism and a resultant theory for the evolution of phenotypic versus genetic specialization. We use two-dimensional adaptive dynamics to track the evolution of the population phenotype distribution of the expression of two metabolic processes with a concave trade-off. Rather than assume a Gaussian phenotype distribution, we use a Beta distribution that is capable of describing genotypes that manifest as individuals with two distinct phenotypes. Doing so, we find that environmental variation is not a necessary condition for the evolution of phenotypic heterogeneity, which can evolve as a form of specialization in a stable environment. There are two competing pressures driving the evolution of specialization: directional selection toward the evolution of phenotypic heterogeneity and disruptive selection toward genetically determined specialists. Because of the lack of a singular point in the two-dimensional adaptive dynamics and the fact that directional selection is a first order process, while disruptive selection is of second order, the evolution of phenotypic heterogeneity dominates and often precludes speciation. We find that branching, and therefore genetic specialization, occurs mainly under two conditions: the presence of a cost to maintaining a high phenotypic variance or when the effect of mutations is large. A cost to high phenotypic variance dampens the strength of selection toward phenotypic heterogeneity and, when sufficiently large, introduces a singular point into the evolutionary dynamics, effectively guaranteeing eventual branching. Large mutations allow the second order disruptive selection to dominate the first order selection toward phenotypic heterogeneity. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Helicopter Control Energy Reduction Using Moving Horizontal Tail

PubMed Central

Oktay, Tugrul; Sal, Firat

2015-01-01

Helicopter moving horizontal tail (i.e., MHT) strategy is applied in order to save helicopter flight control system (i.e., FCS) energy. For this intention complex, physics-based, control-oriented nonlinear helicopter models are used. Equations of MHT are integrated into these models and they are together linearized around straight level flight condition. A specific variance constrained control strategy, namely, output variance constrained Control (i.e., OVC) is utilized for helicopter FCS. Control energy savings due to this MHT idea with respect to a conventional helicopter are calculated. Parameters of helicopter FCS and dimensions of MHT are simultaneously optimized using a stochastic optimization method, namely, simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation (i.e., SPSA). In order to observe improvement in behaviors of classical controls closed loop analyses are done. PMID:26180841

Impact of physiological noise correction on detecting blood oxygenation level-dependent contrast in the breast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wallace, Tess E.; Manavaki, Roido; Graves, Martin J.; Patterson, Andrew J.; Gilbert, Fiona J.

2017-01-01

Physiological fluctuations are expected to be a dominant source of noise in blood oxygenation level-dependent (BOLD) magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) experiments to assess tumour oxygenation and angiogenesis. This work investigates the impact of various physiological noise regressors: retrospective image correction (RETROICOR), heart rate (HR) and respiratory volume per unit time (RVT), on signal variance and the detection of BOLD contrast in the breast in response to a modulated respiratory stimulus. BOLD MRI was performed at 3 T in ten volunteers at rest and during cycles of oxygen and carbogen gas breathing. RETROICOR was optimized using F-tests to determine which cardiac and respiratory phase terms accounted for a significant amount of signal variance. A nested regression analysis was performed to assess the effect of RETROICOR, HR and RVT on the model fit residuals, temporal signal-to-noise ratio, and BOLD activation parameters. The optimized RETROICOR model accounted for the largest amount of signal variance ( Δ R\\text{adj}2   =  3.3  ±  2.1%) and improved the detection of BOLD activation (P  =  0.002). Inclusion of HR and RVT regressors explained additional signal variance, but had a negative impact on activation parameter estimation (P  <  0.001). Fluctuations in HR and RVT appeared to be correlated with the stimulus and may contribute to apparent BOLD signal reactivity.

Taguchi Method Applied in Optimization of Shipley SJR 5740 Positive Resist Deposition

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hui, A.; Blosiu, J. O.; Wiberg, D. V.

1998-01-01

Taguchi Methods of Robust Design presents a way to optimize output process performance through an organized set of experiments by using orthogonal arrays. Analysis of variance and signal-to-noise ratio is used to evaluate the contribution of each of the process controllable parameters in the realization of the process optimization. In the photoresist deposition process, there are numerous controllable parameters that can affect the surface quality and thickness of the final photoresist layer.

Modelling on optimal portfolio with exchange rate based on discontinuous stochastic process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Wei; Chang, Yuwen

2016-12-01

Considering the stochastic exchange rate, this paper is concerned with the dynamic portfolio selection in financial market. The optimal investment problem is formulated as a continuous-time mathematical model under mean-variance criterion. These processes follow jump-diffusion processes (Weiner process and Poisson process). Then the corresponding Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman(HJB) equation of the problem is presented and its efferent frontier is obtained. Moreover, the optimal strategy is also derived under safety-first criterion.

Training set optimization under population structure in genomic selection.

PubMed

Isidro, Julio; Jannink, Jean-Luc; Akdemir, Deniz; Poland, Jesse; Heslot, Nicolas; Sorrells, Mark E

2015-01-01

Population structure must be evaluated before optimization of the training set population. Maximizing the phenotypic variance captured by the training set is important for optimal performance. The optimization of the training set (TRS) in genomic selection has received much interest in both animal and plant breeding, because it is critical to the accuracy of the prediction models. In this study, five different TRS sampling algorithms, stratified sampling, mean of the coefficient of determination (CDmean), mean of predictor error variance (PEVmean), stratified CDmean (StratCDmean) and random sampling, were evaluated for prediction accuracy in the presence of different levels of population structure. In the presence of population structure, the most phenotypic variation captured by a sampling method in the TRS is desirable. The wheat dataset showed mild population structure, and CDmean and stratified CDmean methods showed the highest accuracies for all the traits except for test weight and heading date. The rice dataset had strong population structure and the approach based on stratified sampling showed the highest accuracies for all traits. In general, CDmean minimized the relationship between genotypes in the TRS, maximizing the relationship between TRS and the test set. This makes it suitable as an optimization criterion for long-term selection. Our results indicated that the best selection criterion used to optimize the TRS seems to depend on the interaction of trait architecture and population structure.

Self-esteem and optimism in men and women infected with HIV.

PubMed

Anderson, E H

2000-01-01

Self-esteem and optimism have been associated with appraisal and outcomes in a variety of situations. The degree to which the contribution of self-esteem and optimism to outcomes over time is accounted for by the differences in threat (primary) or resource (secondary) appraisal has not been established in persons with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). To examine the longitudinal relationship of personality (self-esteem and optimism) on primary and secondary appraisal and outcomes of well-being, mood, CD4+ T-lymphocyte count, and selected activities. Men (n = 56) and women (n = 42) infected with HIV completed eight self-report measures twice over 18 months. Hierarchical Multiple Regressions were used to examine the relationship of personality variables on appraisals and outcomes. The mediating effects of primary and secondary appraisals were explored. Self-esteem uniquely accounted for 6% of the variance in primary appraisal and 5% in secondary appraisal. Optimism accounted for 8% of the unique variance in secondary appraisal. Primary and secondary appraisal mediated differently between personality and outcome variables. A strong predictor of well-being, mood disturbance, and activity disruption at Time 2 was participants' initial level of these variables. Socioeconomic status was a strong predictor of mood. Self-esteem and optimism are important but different resources for adapting to HIV disease. Strategies for reducing threats and increasing resources associated with HIV may improve an individual's mood and sense of well-being.

Robustness of critical points in a complex adaptive system: Effects of hedge behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, Yuan; Huang, Ji-Ping

2013-08-01

In our recent papers, we have identified a class of phase transitions in the market-directed resource-allocation game, and found that there exists a critical point at which the phase transitions occur. The critical point is given by a certain resource ratio. Here, by performing computer simulations and theoretical analysis, we report that the critical point is robust against various kinds of human hedge behavior where the numbers of herds and contrarians can be varied widely. This means that the critical point can be independent of the total number of participants composed of normal agents, herds and contrarians, under some conditions. This finding means that the critical points we identified in this complex adaptive system (with adaptive agents) may also be an intensive quantity, similar to those revealed in traditional physical systems (with non-adaptive units).

Energy futures: Trading opportunities for the 1980's

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Treat, J.E.; Cowie, S.; Davidson, F.E.

1984-01-01

This text gives a broad background in both theory and practice of energy futures trading. It details successful contract requirements. It analyzes fundamental and technical pricing and using both to manage risk and achieve trading objectives. Hedging strategy, financial aspects of trading, accounting procedures, internal control systems and tax implications are all expertly covered. The book concludes with the potential impact of futures trading on the structure of world markets. Contents: Energy futures: an overview; Exchanges and their contracts; Fundamental analysis and the theory of hedging; The principles of technical analysis; Putting it all together; Integrated trading strategies; Energy futures;more » Financing and exposure management in the oil industry; Accounting principles, taxation, and internal control; The potential impacts of trading in oil futures on the world oil market; Appendix; Glossary; Index.« less

Friendship in school-age boys with autism spectrum disorders: A meta-analytic summary and developmental, process-based model.

PubMed

Mendelson, Jenna L; Gates, Jacquelyn A; Lerner, Matthew D

2016-06-01

Friendship-making is considered a well-established domain of deficit for children with autism spectrum disorders (ASD; American Psychiatric Association, 2013), with this population sometimes described as incapable of making friends. However, the majority of children with ASD indicate a desire for friends, and many report having friends. To what degree, then, do youth with ASD succeed in achieving friendships with peers? If and when they do succeed, by what means do these friendships emerge relative to models of typically developing (TD) youths' friendships? To address these questions, we first meta-analyzed the descriptive friendship literature (peer-reported sociometrics, self-report, parent-report) among school-age boys with ASD. Using random effects models, we found that youth with ASD do make friends according to peers and parents (Hedges's g > 2.84). However, self-reported friendship quality (Hedges's g = -1.09) and parent- and peer-reported quantity (Hedges's g < -0.63) were poorer than TD peers. We consider these findings in light of 2 conceptual frameworks for understanding social deficits in ASD (social cognition and social motivation theory) and in view of a leading model of friendship in TD youth (Hartup & Stevens, 1997). We then present a model that synthesizes these domains through the construct of social information processing speed, and thereby present the first developmental, process-based model of friendship development among youth with ASD. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

A meta-analytic review of the effects of exercise on brain-derived neurotrophic factor.

PubMed

Szuhany, Kristin L; Bugatti, Matteo; Otto, Michael W

2015-01-01

Consistent evidence indicates that exercise improves cognition and mood, with preliminary evidence suggesting that brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) may mediate these effects. The aim of the current meta-analysis was to provide an estimate of the strength of the association between exercise and increased BDNF levels in humans across multiple exercise paradigms. We conducted a meta-analysis of 29 studies (N = 1111 participants) examining the effect of exercise on BDNF levels in three exercise paradigms: (1) a single session of exercise, (2) a session of exercise following a program of regular exercise, and (3) resting BDNF levels following a program of regular exercise. Moderators of this effect were also examined. Results demonstrated a moderate effect size for increases in BDNF following a single session of exercise (Hedges' g = 0.46, p < 0.001). Further, regular exercise intensified the effect of a session of exercise on BDNF levels (Hedges' g = 0.59, p = 0.02). Finally, results indicated a small effect of regular exercise on resting BDNF levels (Hedges' g = 0.27, p = 0.005). When analyzing results across paradigms, sex significantly moderated the effect of exercise on BDNF levels, such that studies with more women showed less BDNF change resulting from exercise. Effect size analysis supports the role of exercise as a strategy for enhancing BDNF activity in humans, but indicates that the magnitude of these effects may be lower in females relative to males. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Do psychosocial sleep interventions improve infant sleep or maternal mood in the postnatal period? A systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials.

PubMed

Kempler, Liora; Sharpe, Louise; Miller, Christopher B; Bartlett, Delwyn J

2016-10-01

Sleep complaints are common amongst mothers of infants and insufficient, inefficient or fragmented sleep is associated with postnatal depression. The aim of this review is to determine whether psychosocial sleep-focused interventions offered in the perinatal period improve infant sleep or maternal mood. We searched PubMed, PsycInfo, EMBASE and CINAHL with no date restriction. We reviewed 1097 articles, resulting in nine papers (n = 1,656) that fit the eligibility criteria for inclusion in the analyses. The primary outcome was infant sleep, defined as maternal reports of infant nocturnal total sleep time and number of night-time wakes. The secondary outcome was maternal mood. The meta-analysis indicated improvements in reported infant nocturnal total sleep time (Hedge's g = 0.204, p < 0.01). However, there was no evidence for reducing infant night wakes (Hedge's g = 0.103, p = 0.134). There was evidence of maternal mood improvements (Hedge's g = 0.152, p = 0.014), however, this could have been influenced by publication bias. Psychosocial sleep interventions appear to impact the amount of sleep that a mother reports her baby to have, although the infants continue to wake as frequently. More research is needed to confirm whether sleep-related improvements can translate into improvements in maternal mood. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Transfer of an implied incompatible spatial mapping to a Simon task.

PubMed

Luo, Chunming; Proctor, Robert W

2016-02-01

When location words left and right are presented in left and right locations and mapped to left and right keypress responses in the Hedge and Marsh (1975) task (Arend & Wandmacher, 1987), a compatible mapping of words to responses yields a benefit for stimulus-response location correspondence (sometimes called the Simon effect), whereas an incompatible mapping yields a benefit for noncorrespondence (called the Hedge and Marsh reversal). Experiment 1 replicated the correspondence benefit and its reversal by using Chinese location words [symbol: see text] (left) and [symbol: see text] (right) in the Hedge and Marsh task. Experiments 2 and 3 examined whether the tendency to respond with the noncorresponding response when the mapping is incompatible transfers to the task version in which the mapping is compatible, and Experiment 4 examined whether transfer similarly occurs from the compatible mapping to the task version with incompatible mapping. Transfer of the incompatible relation was apparent in a lack of correspondence benefit when the mapping was changed to compatible, but transfer of the compatible relation to the incompatible mapping did not occur. The results suggest that an association between noncorresponding stimulus-response locations is acquired when the word-response mapping is incompatible, even though this relation is only implicit, regardless of whether through misapplication of a logical recoding rule or spatial representations shared by the locations and words. These associations then continue to affect processing of location when the mapping is compatible. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Meta-analytic Review of Memory Impairment in Behavioral Variant Frontotemporal Dementia.

PubMed

Poos, Jackie M; Jiskoot, Lize C; Papma, Janne M; van Swieten, John C; van den Berg, Esther

2018-03-19

A meta-analysis of the extent, nature and pattern of memory performance in behavioral variant frontotemporal dementia (bvFTD). Multiple observational studies have challenged the relative sparing of memory in bvFTD as stated in the current diagnostic criteria. We performed a meta-analytic review covering the period 1967 to February 2017 of case-control studies on episodic memory in bvFTD versus control participants (16 studies, 383 patients, 603 control participants), and patients with bvFTD versus those with Alzheimer's disease (AD) (20 studies, 452 bvFTD, 874 AD). Differences between both verbal and non-verbal working memory, episodic memory learning and recall, and recognition memory were examined. Data were extracted from the papers and combined into a common metric measure of effect, Hedges' d. Patients with bvFTD show large deficits in memory performance compared to controls (Hedges' d -1.10; 95% confidence interval [CI] [-1.23, -0.95]), but perform significantly better than patients with AD (Hedges' d 0.85; 95% CI [0.69, 1.03]). Learning and recall tests differentiate best between patients with bvFTD and AD (p<.01). There is 37-62% overlap in test scores between the two groups. This study points to memory disorders in patients with bvFTD, with performance at an intermediate level between controls and patients with AD. This indicates that, instead of being an exclusion criterion for bvFTD diagnosis, memory deficits should be regarded as a potential integral part of the clinical spectrum. (JINS, 2018, 24, 1-13).

Relation between financial market structure and the real economy: comparison between clustering methods.

PubMed

Musmeci, Nicoló; Aste, Tomaso; Di Matteo, T

2015-01-01

We quantify the amount of information filtered by different hierarchical clustering methods on correlations between stock returns comparing the clustering structure with the underlying industrial activity classification. We apply, for the first time to financial data, a novel hierarchical clustering approach, the Directed Bubble Hierarchical Tree and we compare it with other methods including the Linkage and k-medoids. By taking the industrial sector classification of stocks as a benchmark partition, we evaluate how the different methods retrieve this classification. The results show that the Directed Bubble Hierarchical Tree can outperform other methods, being able to retrieve more information with fewer clusters. Moreover,we show that the economic information is hidden at different levels of the hierarchical structures depending on the clustering method. The dynamical analysis on a rolling window also reveals that the different methods show different degrees of sensitivity to events affecting financial markets, like crises. These results can be of interest for all the applications of clustering methods to portfolio optimization and risk hedging [corrected].

Lazy workers are necessary for long-term sustainability in insect societies

PubMed Central

Hasegawa, Eisuke; Ishii, Yasunori; Tada, Koichiro; Kobayashi, Kazuya; Yoshimura, Jin

2016-01-01

Optimality theory predicts the maximization of productivity in social insect colonies, but many inactive workers are found in ant colonies. Indeed, the low short-term productivity of ant colonies is often the consequence of high variation among workers in the threshold to respond to task-related stimuli. Why is such an inefficient strategy among colonies maintained by natural selection? Here, we show that inactive workers are necessary for the long-term sustainability of a colony. Our simulation shows that colonies with variable thresholds persist longer than those with invariable thresholds because inactive workers perform the critical function of replacing active workers when they become fatigued. Evidence of the replacement of active workers by inactive workers has been found in ant colonies. Thus, the presence of inactive workers increases the long-term persistence of the colony at the expense of decreasing short-term productivity. Inactive workers may represent a bet-hedging strategy in response to environmental stochasticity. PMID:26880339

The value of a statistical life: a meta-analysis with a mixed effects regression model.

PubMed

Bellavance, François; Dionne, Georges; Lebeau, Martin

2009-03-01

The value of a statistical life (VSL) is a very controversial topic, but one which is essential to the optimization of governmental decisions. We see a great variability in the values obtained from different studies. The source of this variability needs to be understood, in order to offer public decision-makers better guidance in choosing a value and to set clearer guidelines for future research on the topic. This article presents a meta-analysis based on 39 observations obtained from 37 studies (from nine different countries) which all use a hedonic wage method to calculate the VSL. Our meta-analysis is innovative in that it is the first to use the mixed effects regression model [Raudenbush, S.W., 1994. Random effects models. In: Cooper, H., Hedges, L.V. (Eds.), The Handbook of Research Synthesis. Russel Sage Foundation, New York] to analyze studies on the value of a statistical life. We conclude that the variability found in the values studied stems in large part from differences in methodologies.

Non-genetic individuality in Escherichia coli motor switching

PubMed Central

Mora, Thierry; Bai, Fan; Che, Yong-Suk; Minamino, Tohru; Namba, Keiichi; Wingreen, Ned S.

2011-01-01

By analyzing 30-minute, high-resolution recordings of single E. coli flagellar motors in the physiological regime, we show that two main properties of motor switching —the mean clockwise and mean counter-clockwise interval durations— vary significantly. When we represent these quantities on a two-dimensional plot for several cells, the data does not fall on a one-dimensional curve, as expected with a single control parameter, but instead spreads in two dimensions, pointing to motor individuality. The largest variations are in the mean counter-clockwise interval, and are attributable to variations in the concentration of the internal signaling molecule CheY-P. In contrast, variations in the mean clockwise interval are interpreted in terms of motor individuality. We argue that the sensitivity of the mean counter-clockwise interval to fluctuations in CheY-P is consistent with an optimal strategy of run and tumble. The concomittent variability in mean run length may allow populations of cells to better survive in rapidly changing environments by “hedging their bets”. PMID:21422514

Relation between Financial Market Structure and the Real Economy: Comparison between Clustering Methods

PubMed Central

Musmeci, Nicoló; Aste, Tomaso; Di Matteo, T.

2015-01-01

We quantify the amount of information filtered by different hierarchical clustering methods on correlations between stock returns comparing the clustering structure with the underlying industrial activity classification. We apply, for the first time to financial data, a novel hierarchical clustering approach, the Directed Bubble Hierarchical Tree and we compare it with other methods including the Linkage and k-medoids. By taking the industrial sector classification of stocks as a benchmark partition, we evaluate how the different methods retrieve this classification. The results show that the Directed Bubble Hierarchical Tree can outperform other methods, being able to retrieve more information with fewer clusters. Moreover, we show that the economic information is hidden at different levels of the hierarchical structures depending on the clustering method. The dynamical analysis on a rolling window also reveals that the different methods show different degrees of sensitivity to events affecting financial markets, like crises. These results can be of interest for all the applications of clustering methods to portfolio optimization and risk hedging. PMID:25786703

Resilience and Health in Repatriated Prisoners of War

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-12-14

the following: officer status in favor over enlisted status, older at time of capture, less time in solitary confinement, low antisocial ...psychopathic personality , low post-traumatic stress symptoms upon repatriation, and optimism with the latter accounting for the most variance (17%) in the...medical problems were the largest correlations and the most significant, followed by optimism and to a lesser degree antisocial /psychopathic

The performance of matched-field track-before-detect methods using shallow-water Pacific data.

PubMed

Tantum, Stacy L; Nolte, Loren W; Krolik, Jeffrey L; Harmanci, Kerem

2002-07-01

Matched-field track-before-detect processing, which extends the concept of matched-field processing to include modeling of the source dynamics, has recently emerged as a promising approach for maintaining the track of a moving source. In this paper, optimal Bayesian and minimum variance beamforming track-before-detect algorithms which incorporate a priori knowledge of the source dynamics in addition to the underlying uncertainties in the ocean environment are presented. A Markov model is utilized for the source motion as a means of capturing the stochastic nature of the source dynamics without assuming uniform motion. In addition, the relationship between optimal Bayesian track-before-detect processing and minimum variance track-before-detect beamforming is examined, revealing how an optimal tracking philosophy may be used to guide the modification of existing beamforming techniques to incorporate track-before-detect capabilities. Further, the benefits of implementing an optimal approach over conventional methods are illustrated through application of these methods to shallow-water Pacific data collected as part of the SWellEX-1 experiment. The results show that incorporating Markovian dynamics for the source motion provides marked improvement in the ability to maintain target track without the use of a uniform velocity hypothesis.

Optimization of the R-SQUID noise thermometer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seppä, Heikki

1986-02-01

The Josephson junction can be used to convert voltage into frequency and thus it can be used to convert voltage fluctuations generated by Johnson noise in a resistor into frequency fluctuations. As a consequence, the temperature of the resistor can be defined by measuring the variance of the frequency fluctuations. Unfortunately, the absolute determination of temperature by this approach is disturbed by several undesirable effects: a rolloff introduced by the bandwidth of the postdetection filter, additional noise caused by rf amplifiers, and a mixed noise effect caused by the nonlinearity of the Josephson junction together with rf noise in the tank circuit. Furthermore, the variance is a statistical quantity and therefore the limited number of frequency counts produces inaccuracy in a temperature measurement. In this work the total inaccuracy of the noise thermometer is analyzed and the optimal choice of the parameters is derived. A practical way to find the optimal conditions for the Josephson junction noise thermometer is discussed. The inspection shows that under the optimal conditions the total error is dependent only on the temperature under determination, the equivalent noise temperature of the preamplifier, the bias frequency of the SQUID, and the total time used for the measurement.

Algebraic aspects of evolution partial differential equation arising in the study of constant elasticity of variance model from financial mathematics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Motsepa, Tanki; Aziz, Taha; Fatima, Aeeman; Khalique, Chaudry Masood

2018-03-01

The optimal investment-consumption problem under the constant elasticity of variance (CEV) model is investigated from the perspective of Lie group analysis. The Lie symmetry group of the evolution partial differential equation describing the CEV model is derived. The Lie point symmetries are then used to obtain an exact solution of the governing model satisfying a standard terminal condition. Finally, we construct conservation laws of the underlying equation using the general theorem on conservation laws.

Optimal strategies for the control of autonomous vehicles in data assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McDougall, D.; Moore, R. O.

2017-08-01

We propose a method to compute optimal control paths for autonomous vehicles deployed for the purpose of inferring a velocity field. In addition to being advected by the flow, the vehicles are able to effect a fixed relative speed with arbitrary control over direction. It is this direction that is used as the basis for the locally optimal control algorithm presented here, with objective formed from the variance trace of the expected posterior distribution. We present results for linear flows near hyperbolic fixed points.

76 FR 2174 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; International Securities Exchange, LLC; Notice of Filing and...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-01-12

... traders additional opportunities and strategies to hedge high priced securities. Currently, Exchange Rule... example if Apple, Inc. (``AAPL'') would trade at $310 \\6\\ with approximately two months remaining until...

Eye - foreign object in

MedlinePlus

... JR, ed. Roberts and Hedges' Clinical Procedures in Emergency Medicine . 6th ed. Philadelphia, PA: Elsevier Saunders; 2014:chap ... RM, Hockberger RS, Gausche-Hill M, eds. Rosen's Emergency Medicine: Concepts and Clinical Practice . 9th ed. Philadelphia, PA: ...

Comparing transformation methods for DNA microarray data

PubMed Central

Thygesen, Helene H; Zwinderman, Aeilko H

2004-01-01

Background When DNA microarray data are used for gene clustering, genotype/phenotype correlation studies, or tissue classification the signal intensities are usually transformed and normalized in several steps in order to improve comparability and signal/noise ratio. These steps may include subtraction of an estimated background signal, subtracting the reference signal, smoothing (to account for nonlinear measurement effects), and more. Different authors use different approaches, and it is generally not clear to users which method they should prefer. Results We used the ratio between biological variance and measurement variance (which is an F-like statistic) as a quality measure for transformation methods, and we demonstrate a method for maximizing that variance ratio on real data. We explore a number of transformations issues, including Box-Cox transformation, baseline shift, partial subtraction of the log-reference signal and smoothing. It appears that the optimal choice of parameters for the transformation methods depends on the data. Further, the behavior of the variance ratio, under the null hypothesis of zero biological variance, appears to depend on the choice of parameters. Conclusions The use of replicates in microarray experiments is important. Adjustment for the null-hypothesis behavior of the variance ratio is critical to the selection of transformation method. PMID:15202953

Comparing transformation methods for DNA microarray data.

PubMed

Thygesen, Helene H; Zwinderman, Aeilko H

2004-06-17

When DNA microarray data are used for gene clustering, genotype/phenotype correlation studies, or tissue classification the signal intensities are usually transformed and normalized in several steps in order to improve comparability and signal/noise ratio. These steps may include subtraction of an estimated background signal, subtracting the reference signal, smoothing (to account for nonlinear measurement effects), and more. Different authors use different approaches, and it is generally not clear to users which method they should prefer. We used the ratio between biological variance and measurement variance (which is an F-like statistic) as a quality measure for transformation methods, and we demonstrate a method for maximizing that variance ratio on real data. We explore a number of transformations issues, including Box-Cox transformation, baseline shift, partial subtraction of the log-reference signal and smoothing. It appears that the optimal choice of parameters for the transformation methods depends on the data. Further, the behavior of the variance ratio, under the null hypothesis of zero biological variance, appears to depend on the choice of parameters. The use of replicates in microarray experiments is important. Adjustment for the null-hypothesis behavior of the variance ratio is critical to the selection of transformation method.

Practice reduces task relevant variance modulation and forms nominal trajectory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osu, Rieko; Morishige, Ken-Ichi; Nakanishi, Jun; Miyamoto, Hiroyuki; Kawato, Mitsuo

2015-12-01

Humans are capable of achieving complex tasks with redundant degrees of freedom. Much attention has been paid to task relevant variance modulation as an indication of online feedback control strategies to cope with motor variability. Meanwhile, it has been discussed that the brain learns internal models of environments to realize feedforward control with nominal trajectories. Here we examined trajectory variance in both spatial and temporal domains to elucidate the relative contribution of these control schemas. We asked subjects to learn reaching movements with multiple via-points, and found that hand trajectories converged to stereotyped trajectories with the reduction of task relevant variance modulation as learning proceeded. Furthermore, variance reduction was not always associated with task constraints but was highly correlated with the velocity profile. A model assuming noise both on the nominal trajectory and motor command was able to reproduce the observed variance modulation, supporting an expression of nominal trajectories in the brain. The learning-related decrease in task-relevant modulation revealed a reduction in the influence of optimal feedback around the task constraints. After practice, the major part of computation seems to be taken over by the feedforward controller around the nominal trajectory with feedback added only when it becomes necessary.

Thermodynamic characterization of synchronization-optimized oscillator networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yanagita, Tatsuo; Ichinomiya, Takashi

2014-12-01

We consider a canonical ensemble of synchronization-optimized networks of identical oscillators under external noise. By performing a Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation using the Kirchhoff index, i.e., the sum of the inverse eigenvalues of the Laplacian matrix (as a graph Hamiltonian of the network), we construct more than 1 000 different synchronization-optimized networks. We then show that the transition from star to core-periphery structure depends on the connectivity of the network, and is characterized by the node degree variance of the synchronization-optimized ensemble. We find that thermodynamic properties such as heat capacity show anomalies for sparse networks.

Minimum-variance Brownian motion control of an optically trapped probe.

PubMed

Huang, Yanan; Zhang, Zhipeng; Menq, Chia-Hsiang

2009-10-20

This paper presents a theoretical and experimental investigation of the Brownian motion control of an optically trapped probe. The Langevin equation is employed to describe the motion of the probe experiencing random thermal force and optical trapping force. Since active feedback control is applied to suppress the probe's Brownian motion, actuator dynamics and measurement delay are included in the equation. The equation of motion is simplified to a first-order linear differential equation and transformed to a discrete model for the purpose of controller design and data analysis. The derived model is experimentally verified by comparing the model prediction to the measured response of a 1.87 microm trapped probe subject to proportional control. It is then employed to design the optimal controller that minimizes the variance of the probe's Brownian motion. Theoretical analysis is derived to evaluate the control performance of a specific optical trap. Both experiment and simulation are used to validate the design as well as theoretical analysis, and to illustrate the performance envelope of the active control. Moreover, adaptive minimum variance control is implemented to maintain the optimal performance in the case in which the system is time varying when operating the actively controlled optical trap in a complex environment.

How Many Environmental Impact Indicators Are Needed in the Evaluation of Product Life Cycles?

PubMed

Steinmann, Zoran J N; Schipper, Aafke M; Hauck, Mara; Huijbregts, Mark A J

2016-04-05

Numerous indicators are currently available for environmental impact assessments, especially in the field of Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA). Because decision-making on the basis of hundreds of indicators simultaneously is unfeasible, a nonredundant key set of indicators representative of the overall environmental impact is needed. We aimed to find such a nonredundant set of indicators based on their mutual correlations. We have used Principal Component Analysis (PCA) in combination with an optimization algorithm to find an optimal set of indicators out of 135 impact indicators calculated for 976 products from the ecoinvent database. The first four principal components covered 92% of the variance in product rankings, showing the potential for indicator reduction. The same amount of variance (92%) could be covered by a minimal set of six indicators, related to climate change, ozone depletion, the combined effects of acidification and eutrophication, terrestrial ecotoxicity, marine ecotoxicity, and land use. In comparison, four commonly used resource footprints (energy, water, land, materials) together accounted for 84% of the variance in product rankings. We conclude that the plethora of environmental indicators can be reduced to a small key set, representing the major part of the variation in environmental impacts between product life cycles.

Cost effective stream-gaging strategies for the Lower Colorado River basin; the Blythe field office operations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moss, Marshall E.; Gilroy, Edward J.

1980-01-01

This report describes the theoretical developments and illustrates the applications of techniques that recently have been assembled to analyze the cost-effectiveness of federally funded stream-gaging activities in support of the Colorado River compact and subsequent adjudications. The cost effectiveness of 19 stream gages in terms of minimizing the sum of the variances of the errors of estimation of annual mean discharge is explored by means of a sequential-search optimization scheme. The search is conducted over a set of decision variables that describes the number of times that each gaging route is traveled in a year. A gage route is defined as the most expeditious circuit that is made from a field office to visit one or more stream gages and return to the office. The error variance is defined as a function of the frequency of visits to a gage by using optimal estimation theory. Currently a minimum of 12 visits per year is made to any gage. By changing to a six-visit minimum, the same total error variance can be attained for the 19 stations with a budget of 10% less than the current one. Other strategies are also explored. (USGS)

Optimizing cropland cover for stable food production in Sub-Saharan Africa using simulated yield and Modern Portfolio Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bodin, P.; Olin, S.; Pugh, T. A. M.; Arneth, A.

2014-12-01

Food security can be defined as stable access to food of good nutritional quality. In Sub Saharan Africa access to food is strongly linked to local food production and the capacity to generate enough calories to sustain the local population. Therefore it is important in these regions to generate not only sufficiently high yields but also to reduce interannual variability in food production. Traditionally, climate impact simulation studies have focused on factors that underlie maximum productivity ignoring the variability in yield. By using Modern Portfolio Theory, a method stemming from economics, we here calculate optimum current and future crop selection that maintain current yield while minimizing variance, vs. maintaining variance while maximizing yield. Based on simulated yield using the LPJ-GUESS dynamic vegetation model, the results show that current cropland distribution for many crops is close to these optimum distributions. Even so, the optimizations displayed substantial potential to either increase food production and/or to decrease its variance regionally. Our approach can also be seen as a method to create future scenarios for the sown areas of crops in regions where local food production is important for food security.

Modelling heterogeneity variances in multiple treatment comparison meta-analysis – Are informative priors the better solution?

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Multiple treatment comparison (MTC) meta-analyses are commonly modeled in a Bayesian framework, and weakly informative priors are typically preferred to mirror familiar data driven frequentist approaches. Random-effects MTCs have commonly modeled heterogeneity under the assumption that the between-trial variance for all involved treatment comparisons are equal (i.e., the ‘common variance’ assumption). This approach ‘borrows strength’ for heterogeneity estimation across treatment comparisons, and thus, ads valuable precision when data is sparse. The homogeneous variance assumption, however, is unrealistic and can severely bias variance estimates. Consequently 95% credible intervals may not retain nominal coverage, and treatment rank probabilities may become distorted. Relaxing the homogeneous variance assumption may be equally problematic due to reduced precision. To regain good precision, moderately informative variance priors or additional mathematical assumptions may be necessary. Methods In this paper we describe four novel approaches to modeling heterogeneity variance - two novel model structures, and two approaches for use of moderately informative variance priors. We examine the relative performance of all approaches in two illustrative MTC data sets. We particularly compare between-study heterogeneity estimates and model fits, treatment effect estimates and 95% credible intervals, and treatment rank probabilities. Results In both data sets, use of moderately informative variance priors constructed from the pair wise meta-analysis data yielded the best model fit and narrower credible intervals. Imposing consistency equations on variance estimates, assuming variances to be exchangeable, or using empirically informed variance priors also yielded good model fits and narrow credible intervals. The homogeneous variance model yielded high precision at all times, but overall inadequate estimates of between-trial variances. Lastly, treatment rankings were similar among the novel approaches, but considerably different when compared with the homogenous variance approach. Conclusions MTC models using a homogenous variance structure appear to perform sub-optimally when between-trial variances vary between comparisons. Using informative variance priors, assuming exchangeability or imposing consistency between heterogeneity variances can all ensure sufficiently reliable and realistic heterogeneity estimation, and thus more reliable MTC inferences. All four approaches should be viable candidates for replacing or supplementing the conventional homogeneous variance MTC model, which is currently the most widely used in practice. PMID:23311298

Responsivity-based criterion for accurate calibration of FTIR emission spectra: theoretical development and bandwidth estimation.

PubMed

Rowe, Penny M; Neshyba, Steven P; Walden, Von P

2011-03-14

An analytical expression for the variance of the radiance measured by Fourier-transform infrared (FTIR) emission spectrometers exists only in the limit of low noise. Outside this limit, the variance needs to be calculated numerically. In addition, a criterion for low noise is needed to identify properly calibrated radiances and optimize the instrument bandwidth. In this work, the variance and the magnitude of a noise-dependent spectral bias are calculated as a function of the system responsivity (r) and the noise level in its estimate (σr). The criterion σr/r<0.3, applied to downwelling and upwelling FTIR emission spectra, shows that the instrument bandwidth is specified properly for one instrument but needs to be restricted for another.

Development of a method of robust rain gauge network optimization based on intensity-duration-frequency results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chebbi, A.; Bargaoui, Z. K.; da Conceição Cunha, M.

2012-12-01

Based on rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves, a robust optimization approach is proposed to identify the best locations to install new rain gauges. The advantage of robust optimization is that the resulting design solutions yield networks which behave acceptably under hydrological variability. Robust optimisation can overcome the problem of selecting representative rainfall events when building the optimization process. This paper reports an original approach based on Montana IDF model parameters. The latter are assumed to be geostatistical variables and their spatial interdependence is taken into account through the adoption of cross-variograms in the kriging process. The problem of optimally locating a fixed number of new monitoring stations based on an existing rain gauge network is addressed. The objective function is based on the mean spatial kriging variance and rainfall variogram structure using a variance-reduction method. Hydrological variability was taken into account by considering and implementing several return periods to define the robust objective function. Variance minimization is performed using a simulated annealing algorithm. In addition, knowledge of the time horizon is needed for the computation of the robust objective function. A short and a long term horizon were studied, and optimal networks are identified for each. The method developed is applied to north Tunisia (area = 21 000 km2). Data inputs for the variogram analysis were IDF curves provided by the hydrological bureau and available for 14 tipping bucket type rain gauges. The recording period was from 1962 to 2001, depending on the station. The study concerns an imaginary network augmentation based on the network configuration in 1973, which is a very significant year in Tunisia because there was an exceptional regional flood event in March 1973. This network consisted of 13 stations and did not meet World Meteorological Organization (WMO) recommendations for the minimum spatial density. So, it is proposed to virtually augment it by 25, 50, 100 and 160% which is the rate that would meet WMO requirements. Results suggest that for a given augmentation robust networks remain stable overall for the two time horizons.

Risk Management Education: A National Survey of Agents' Knowledge and Training.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Buzby, Jean C.; And Others

1992-01-01

A nationwide survey of 504 county agricultural agents received 468 replies indicating that agents understand farmers' risk management strategies but feel least qualified to teach about futures markets, crop insurance, hedging, and options. (JOW)

Multi-factor energy price models and exotic derivatives pricing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hikspoors, Samuel

The high pace at which many of the world's energy markets have gradually been opened to competition have generated a significant amount of new financial activity. Both academicians and practitioners alike recently started to develop the tools of energy derivatives pricing/hedging as a quantitative topic of its own. The energy contract structures as well as their underlying asset properties set the energy risk management industry apart from its more standard equity and fixed income counterparts. This thesis naturally contributes to these broad market developments in participating to the advances of the mathematical tools aiming at a better theory of energy contingent claim pricing/hedging. We propose many realistic two-factor and three-factor models for spot and forward price processes that generalize some well known and standard modeling assumptions. We develop the associated pricing methodologies and propose stable calibration algorithms that motivate the application of the relevant modeling schemes.

Large deviations and portfolio optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sornette, Didier

Risk control and optimal diversification constitute a major focus in the finance and insurance industries as well as, more or less consciously, in our everyday life. We present a discussion of the characterization of risks and of the optimization of portfolios that starts from a simple illustrative model and ends by a general functional integral formulation. A major item is that risk, usually thought of as one-dimensional in the conventional mean-variance approach, has to be addressed by the full distribution of losses. Furthermore, the time-horizon of the investment is shown to play a major role. We show the importance of accounting for large fluctuations and use the theory of Cramér for large deviations in this context. We first treat a simple model with a single risky asset that exemplifies the distinction between the average return and the typical return and the role of large deviations in multiplicative processes, and the different optimal strategies for the investors depending on their size. We then analyze the case of assets whose price variations are distributed according to exponential laws, a situation that is found to describe daily price variations reasonably well. Several portfolio optimization strategies are presented that aim at controlling large risks. We end by extending the standard mean-variance portfolio optimization theory, first within the quasi-Gaussian approximation and then using a general formulation for non-Gaussian correlated assets in terms of the formalism of functional integrals developed in the field theory of critical phenomena.

A computer tool for a minimax criterion in binary response and heteroscedastic simple linear regression models.

PubMed

Casero-Alonso, V; López-Fidalgo, J; Torsney, B

2017-01-01

Binary response models are used in many real applications. For these models the Fisher information matrix (FIM) is proportional to the FIM of a weighted simple linear regression model. The same is also true when the weight function has a finite integral. Thus, optimal designs for one binary model are also optimal for the corresponding weighted linear regression model. The main objective of this paper is to provide a tool for the construction of MV-optimal designs, minimizing the maximum of the variances of the estimates, for a general design space. MV-optimality is a potentially difficult criterion because of its nondifferentiability at equal variance designs. A methodology for obtaining MV-optimal designs where the design space is a compact interval [a, b] will be given for several standard weight functions. The methodology will allow us to build a user-friendly computer tool based on Mathematica to compute MV-optimal designs. Some illustrative examples will show a representation of MV-optimal designs in the Euclidean plane, taking a and b as the axes. The applet will be explained using two relevant models. In the first one the case of a weighted linear regression model is considered, where the weight function is directly chosen from a typical family. In the second example a binary response model is assumed, where the probability of the outcome is given by a typical probability distribution. Practitioners can use the provided applet to identify the solution and to know the exact support points and design weights. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Value of Risk Pooling for Mitigating Water Utility Financial Risks Arising From Water Scarcity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baum, R.; Characklis, G. W.; Hughes, J.; Eskaf, S.

2015-12-01

Water utilities across the United States face growing supply risks as demand growth and extreme weather events make water scarcity more common. As it has become more difficult and expensive to build new supply capacity to accommodate these events, many utility managers respond by either imposing conservation measures, which reduces revenues, or acquiring additional water from other sources, which increases costs. These actions lead to changing financial trends that are difficult to predict and that utilities are currently ill-equipped to manage. As a result, adaptation strategies and tools are being developed to reduce utility vulnerabilities, ensuring both financial stability and continued access to low cost financing, a critical consideration for a capital intensive industry. Previous work in this area has involved the development of utility specific financial hedging tools. However, the time and informational requirements associated with developing these individualized strategies may be a limiting factor for widespread implementation. The objective of this research is to develop more generalized hedging instruments that can be applied simultaneously to multiple utilities across the United States, thereby increasing the potential for widespread implementation. This work first analyzes the financial risks of water scarcity for a large set of water utilities across the country and then proposes a financial hedging solution to mitigate these risks through hydrologic index-based financial insurance. Results provide insights into the most effective indices, the potential for risk pooling to reduce insurance costs, and the performance of these contracts in managing utility financial risk arising from drought.

Extracting factors for interest rate scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molgedey, L.; Galic, E.

2001-04-01

Factor based interest rate models are widely used for risk managing purposes, for option pricing and for identifying and capturing yield curve anomalies. The movements of a term structure of interest rates are commonly assumed to be driven by a small number of orthogonal factors such as SHIFT, TWIST and BUTTERFLY (BOW). These factors are usually obtained by a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) of historical bond prices (interest rates). Although PCA diagonalizes the covariance matrix of either the interest rates or the interest rate changes, it does not use both covariance matrices simultaneously. Furthermore higher linear and nonlinear correlations are neglected. These correlations as well as the mean reverting properties of the interest rates become crucial, if one is interested in a longer time horizon (infrequent hedging or trading). We will show that Independent Component Analysis (ICA) is a more appropriate tool than PCA, since ICA uses the covariance matrix of the interest rates as well as the covariance matrix of the interest rate changes simultaneously. Additionally higher linear and nonlinear correlations may be easily incorporated. The resulting factors are uncorrelated for various time delays, approximately independent but nonorthogonal. This is in contrast to the factors obtained from the PCA, which are orthogonal and uncorrelated for identical times only. Although factors from the ICA are nonorthogonal, it is sufficient to consider only a few factors in order to explain most of the variation in the original data. Finally we will present examples that ICA based hedges outperforms PCA based hedges specifically if the portfolio is sensitive to structural changes of the yield curve.

Optimizing an estuarine water quality monitoring program through an entropy-based hierarchical spatiotemporal Bayesian framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alameddine, Ibrahim; Karmakar, Subhankar; Qian, Song S.; Paerl, Hans W.; Reckhow, Kenneth H.

2013-10-01

The total maximum daily load program aims to monitor more than 40,000 standard violations in around 20,000 impaired water bodies across the United States. Given resource limitations, future monitoring efforts have to be hedged against the uncertainties in the monitored system, while taking into account existing knowledge. In that respect, we have developed a hierarchical spatiotemporal Bayesian model that can be used to optimize an existing monitoring network by retaining stations that provide the maximum amount of information, while identifying locations that would benefit from the addition of new stations. The model assumes the water quality parameters are adequately described by a joint matrix normal distribution. The adopted approach allows for a reduction in redundancies, while emphasizing information richness rather than data richness. The developed approach incorporates the concept of entropy to account for the associated uncertainties. Three different entropy-based criteria are adopted: total system entropy, chlorophyll-a standard violation entropy, and dissolved oxygen standard violation entropy. A multiple attribute decision making framework is adopted to integrate the competing design criteria and to generate a single optimal design. The approach is implemented on the water quality monitoring system of the Neuse River Estuary in North Carolina, USA. The model results indicate that the high priority monitoring areas identified by the total system entropy and the dissolved oxygen violation entropy criteria are largely coincident. The monitoring design based on the chlorophyll-a standard violation entropy proved to be less informative, given the low probabilities of violating the water quality standard in the estuary.

Multi-objective Optimization of Solar Irradiance and Variance at Pertinent Inclination Angles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jain, Dhanesh; Lalwani, Mahendra

2018-05-01

The performance of photovoltaic panel gets highly affected bychange in atmospheric conditions and angle of inclination. This article evaluates the optimum tilt angle and orientation angle (surface azimuth angle) for solar photovoltaic array in order to get maximum solar irradiance and to reduce variance of radiation at different sets or subsets of time periods. Non-linear regression and adaptive neural fuzzy interference system (ANFIS) methods are used for predicting the solar radiation. The results of ANFIS are more accurate in comparison to non-linear regression. These results are further used for evaluating the correlation and applied for estimating the optimum combination of tilt angle and orientation angle with the help of general algebraic modelling system and multi-objective genetic algorithm. The hourly average solar irradiation is calculated at different combinations of tilt angle and orientation angle with the help of horizontal surface radiation data of Jodhpur (Rajasthan, India). The hourly average solar irradiance is calculated for three cases: zero variance, with actual variance and with double variance at different time scenarios. It is concluded that monthly collected solar radiation produces better result as compared to bimonthly, seasonally, half-yearly and yearly collected solar radiation. The profit obtained for monthly varying angle has 4.6% more with zero variance and 3.8% more with actual variance, than the annually fixed angle.

Sensitivity analysis and optimization method for the fabrication of one-dimensional beam-splitting phase gratings

PubMed Central

Pacheco, Shaun; Brand, Jonathan F.; Zaverton, Melissa; Milster, Tom; Liang, Rongguang

2015-01-01

A method to design one-dimensional beam-spitting phase gratings with low sensitivity to fabrication errors is described. The method optimizes the phase function of a grating by minimizing the integrated variance of the energy of each output beam over a range of fabrication errors. Numerical results for three 1x9 beam splitting phase gratings are given. Two optimized gratings with low sensitivity to fabrication errors were compared with a grating designed for optimal efficiency. These three gratings were fabricated using gray-scale photolithography. The standard deviation of the 9 outgoing beam energies in the optimized gratings were 2.3 and 3.4 times lower than the optimal efficiency grating. PMID:25969268

Optimism and hope as predictors of subjective health in post-myocardial infarction patients: A comparison of the role of coping strategies.

PubMed

Wlodarczyk, Dorota

2017-03-01

This study explored the effects intervening in the linkages of optimism and hope with subjective health in the short term after myocardial infarction. A two-wave study design was used. The sample consisted of 222 myocardial infarction survivors. When adopting a cross-sectional design, optimism and hope predicted subjective health at Time 1 and Time 2. After controlling for baseline subjective health, they were no longer significant predictors of subjective health at Time 2. Parallel indirect effects of seeking social support and problem solving were significant for both optimism and hope. After controlling for the shared variance between optimism and hope, these effects remained significant only for optimism.

The relationship between offspring size and fitness: integrating theory and empiricism.

PubMed

Rollinson, Njal; Hutchings, Jeffrey A

2013-02-01

How parents divide the energy available for reproduction between size and number of offspring has a profound effect on parental reproductive success. Theory indicates that the relationship between offspring size and offspring fitness is of fundamental importance to the evolution of parental reproductive strategies: this relationship predicts the optimal division of resources between size and number of offspring, it describes the fitness consequences for parents that deviate from optimality, and its shape can predict the most viable type of investment strategy in a given environment (e.g., conservative vs. diversified bet-hedging). Many previous attempts to estimate this relationship and the corresponding value of optimal offspring size have been frustrated by a lack of integration between theory and empiricism. In the present study, we draw from C. Smith and S. Fretwell's classic model to explain how a sound estimate of the offspring size--fitness relationship can be derived with empirical data. We evaluate what measures of fitness can be used to model the offspring size--fitness curve and optimal size, as well as which statistical models should and should not be used to estimate offspring size--fitness relationships. To construct the fitness curve, we recommend that offspring fitness be measured as survival up to the age at which the instantaneous rate of offspring mortality becomes random with respect to initial investment. Parental fitness is then expressed in ecologically meaningful, theoretically defensible, and broadly comparable units: the number of offspring surviving to independence. Although logistic and asymptotic regression have been widely used to estimate offspring size-fitness relationships, the former provides relatively unreliable estimates of optimal size when offspring survival and sample sizes are low, and the latter is unreliable under all conditions. We recommend that the Weibull-1 model be used to estimate this curve because it provides modest improvements in prediction accuracy under experimentally relevant conditions.

[Academic burnout and selection-optimization-compensation strategy in medical students].

PubMed

Chun, Kyung Hee; Park, Young Soon; Lee, Young Hwan; Kim, Seong Yong

2014-12-01

This study was conducted to examine the relationship between academic demand, academic burnout, and the selection-optimization-compensation (SOC) strategy in medical students. A total of 317 students at Yeungnam University, comprising 90 premedical course students, 114 medical course students, and 113 graduate course students, completed a survey that addressed the factors of academic burnout and the selection-optimization-compensation strategy. We analyzed variances of burnout and SOC strategy use by group, and stepwise multiple regression analysis was conducted. There were significant differences in emotional exhaustion and cynicism between groups and year in school. In the SOC strategy, there were no significant differences between groups except for elective selection. The second-year medical and graduate students experienced significantly greater exhaustion (p<0.001), and first-year premedical students experienced significantly higher cynicism (p<0.001). By multiple regression analysis, subfactors of academic burnout and emotional exhaustion were significantly affected by academic demand (p<0.001), and 46% of the variance was explained. Cynicism was significantly affected by elective selection (p<0.05), and inefficacy was significantly influenced by optimization (p<0.001). To improve adaptation, prescriptive strategies and preventive support should be implemented with regard to academic burnout in medical school. Longitudinal and qualitative studies on burnout must be conducted.

Does asymmetric correlation affect portfolio optimization?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fryd, Lukas

2017-07-01

The classical portfolio optimization problem does not assume asymmetric behavior of relationship among asset returns. The existence of asymmetric response in correlation on the bad news could be important information in portfolio optimization. The paper applies Dynamic conditional correlation model (DCC) and his asymmetric version (ADCC) to propose asymmetric behavior of conditional correlation. We analyse asymmetric correlation among S&P index, bonds index and spot gold price before mortgage crisis in 2008. We evaluate forecast ability of the models during and after mortgage crisis and demonstrate the impact of asymmetric correlation on the reduction of portfolio variance.

A Constrained Least Squares Approach to Mobile Positioning: Algorithms and Optimality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheung, KW; So, HC; Ma, W.-K.; Chan, YT

2006-12-01

The problem of locating a mobile terminal has received significant attention in the field of wireless communications. Time-of-arrival (TOA), received signal strength (RSS), time-difference-of-arrival (TDOA), and angle-of-arrival (AOA) are commonly used measurements for estimating the position of the mobile station. In this paper, we present a constrained weighted least squares (CWLS) mobile positioning approach that encompasses all the above described measurement cases. The advantages of CWLS include performance optimality and capability of extension to hybrid measurement cases (e.g., mobile positioning using TDOA and AOA measurements jointly). Assuming zero-mean uncorrelated measurement errors, we show by mean and variance analysis that all the developed CWLS location estimators achieve zero bias and the Cramér-Rao lower bound approximately when measurement error variances are small. The asymptotic optimum performance is also confirmed by simulation results.

A hybrid intelligent algorithm for portfolio selection problem with fuzzy returns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xiang; Zhang, Yang; Wong, Hau-San; Qin, Zhongfeng

2009-11-01

Portfolio selection theory with fuzzy returns has been well developed and widely applied. Within the framework of credibility theory, several fuzzy portfolio selection models have been proposed such as mean-variance model, entropy optimization model, chance constrained programming model and so on. In order to solve these nonlinear optimization models, a hybrid intelligent algorithm is designed by integrating simulated annealing algorithm, neural network and fuzzy simulation techniques, where the neural network is used to approximate the expected value and variance for fuzzy returns and the fuzzy simulation is used to generate the training data for neural network. Since these models are used to be solved by genetic algorithm, some comparisons between the hybrid intelligent algorithm and genetic algorithm are given in terms of numerical examples, which imply that the hybrid intelligent algorithm is robust and more effective. In particular, it reduces the running time significantly for large size problems.

Studies in Software Cost Model Behavior: Do We Really Understand Cost Model Performance?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lum, Karen; Hihn, Jairus; Menzies, Tim

2006-01-01

While there exists extensive literature on software cost estimation techniques, industry practice continues to rely upon standard regression-based algorithms. These software effort models are typically calibrated or tuned to local conditions using local data. This paper cautions that current approaches to model calibration often produce sub-optimal models because of the large variance problem inherent in cost data and by including far more effort multipliers than the data supports. Building optimal models requires that a wider range of models be considered while correctly calibrating these models requires rejection rules that prune variables and records and use multiple criteria for evaluating model performance. The main contribution of this paper is to document a standard method that integrates formal model identification, estimation, and validation. It also documents what we call the large variance problem that is a leading cause of cost model brittleness or instability.

Turnover, account value and diversification of real traders: evidence of collective portfolio optimizing behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morton de Lachapelle, David; Challet, Damien

2010-07-01

Despite the availability of very detailed data on financial markets, agent-based modeling is hindered by the lack of information about real trader behavior. This makes it impossible to validate agent-based models, which are thus reverse-engineering attempts. This work is a contribution towards building a set of stylized facts about the traders themselves. Using the client database of Swissquote Bank SA, the largest online Swiss broker, we find empirical relationships between turnover, account values and the number of assets in which a trader is invested. A theory based on simple mean-variance portfolio optimization that crucially includes variable transaction costs is able to reproduce faithfully the observed behaviors. We finally argue that our results bring to light the collective ability of a population to construct a mean-variance portfolio that takes into account the structure of transaction costs.

A comparison of portfolio selection models via application on ISE 100 index data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Altun, Emrah; Tatlidil, Hüseyin

2013-10-01

Markowitz Model, a classical approach to portfolio optimization problem, relies on two important assumptions: the expected return is multivariate normally distributed and the investor is risk averter. But this model has not been extensively used in finance. Empirical results show that it is very hard to solve large scale portfolio optimization problems with Mean-Variance (M-V)model. Alternative model, Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) model which is proposed by Konno and Yamazaki [7] has been used to remove most of difficulties of Markowitz Mean-Variance model. MAD model don't need to assume that the probability of the rates of return is normally distributed and based on Linear Programming. Another alternative portfolio model is Mean-Lower Semi Absolute Deviation (M-LSAD), which is proposed by Speranza [3]. We will compare these models to determine which model gives more appropriate solution to investors.

Formal Darwinism, the individual-as-maximizing-agent analogy and bet-hedging

PubMed Central

Grafen, A.

1999-01-01

The central argument of The origin of species was that mechanical processes (inheritance of features and the differential reproduction they cause) can give rise to the appearance of design. The 'mechanical processes' are now mathematically represented by the dynamic systems of population genetics, and the appearance of design by optimization and game theory in which the individual plays the part of the maximizing agent. Establishing a precise individual-as-maximizing-agent (IMA) analogy for a population-genetics system justifies optimization approaches, and so provides a modern formal representation of the core of Darwinism. It is a hitherto unnoticed implication of recent population-genetics models that, contrary to a decades-long consensus, an IMA analogy can be found in models with stochastic environments (subject to a convexity assumption), in which individuals maximize expected reproductive value. The key is that the total reproductive value of a species must be considered as constant, so therefore reproductive value should always be calculated in relative terms. This result removes a major obstacle from the theoretical challenge to find a unifying framework which establishes the IMA analogy for all of Darwinian biology, including as special cases inclusive fitness, evolutionarily stable strategies, evolutionary life-history theory, age-structured models and sex ratio theory. This would provide a formal, mathematical justification of fruitful and widespread but 'intentional' terms in evolutionary biology, such as 'selfish', 'altruism' and 'conflict'.

75 FR 8682 - Sunshine Act Meetings

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-02-25

... futures and options in the precious and base metals markets, and to consider Federal position limits in... precious and base metals markets and related hedge exemptions on regulated futures exchanges, derivatives... COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION Sunshine Act Meetings Agency Holding the Meeting: Commodity...

Why Real Estate Makes Sense for Endowments.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kiser, Arthur G., Jr.

1985-01-01

Attributes of real estate that make it a desirable investment for institutional endowment funds include the uniqueness of each property, its function as a hedge against inflation, its function in stabilizing portfolio volatility, and the potential for income and diversification. (MSE)

75 FR 71771 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Notice of Filing of Proposed Rule Change by NASDAQ OMX PHLX, Inc...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-11-24

... provide investors and traders additional opportunities and strategies to hedge high priced securities... varying yields to the investor. For example if Apple, Inc. (``AAPL'') would trade at $310 \\6\\ with...

17 CFR 229.303 - (Item 303) Management's discussion and analysis of financial condition and results of operations.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... may be combined whenever the two topics are interrelated. Where in the registrant's judgment a... or credit risk support to, or engages in leasing, hedging or research and development services with...

New Frontiers in Psychiatric Technology.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fuzessery, Zoltan, Ed.

The second annual educational workshop concerned utilization of psychiatric technicians for technical service to allied professions. Manuscripts are included for the following presentations: (1) "Brief History of Colorado Psychiatric Technicians Association" by Francis L. Hedges, (2) "Hominology--The Approach to the Whole Man"…

33. Photograph of line drawing in possession of Engineering Plans ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

33. Photograph of line drawing in possession of Engineering Plans and Services Division, Rock Island Arsenal. SOUTH ELEVATION, UNDATED. - Rock Island Arsenal, Building No. 1, Gillespie Avenue between Terrace Drive & Hedge Lane, Rock Island, Rock Island County, IL

Hands beat machines for collecting native seed

Treesearch

Mary Ann Davies; Scott Jensen

2008-01-01

A hedge trimmer (Garden Groom Pro) and a hand-held vacuum (Euro-Pro Shark) were tested to determine whether they might be more effective for collecting the seed of native plants than common hand methods. The common hand methods worked best.

Combining the Hanning windowed interpolated FFT in both directions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Kui Fu; Li, Yan Feng

2008-06-01

The interpolated fast Fourier transform (IFFT) has been proposed as a way to eliminate the picket fence effect (PFE) of the fast Fourier transform. The modulus based IFFT, cited in most relevant references, makes use of only the 1st and 2nd highest spectral lines. An approach using three principal spectral lines is proposed. This new approach combines both directions of the complex spectrum based IFFT with the Hanning window. The optimal weight to minimize the estimation variance is established on the first order Taylor series expansion of noise interference. A numerical simulation is carried out, and the results are compared with the Cramer-Rao bound. It is demonstrated that the proposed approach has a lower estimation variance than the two-spectral-line approach. The improvement depends on the extent of sampling deviating from the coherent condition, and the best is decreasing variance by 2/7. However, it is also shown that the estimation variance of the windowed IFFT with the Hanning is significantly higher than that of without windowing.

The importance of system band broadening in modern size exclusion chromatography.

PubMed

Goyon, Alexandre; Guillarme, Davy; Fekete, Szabolcs

2017-02-20

In the last few years, highly efficient UHP-SEC columns packed with sub-3μm particles were commercialized by several providers. Besides the particle size reduction, the dimensions of modern SEC stationary phases (150×4.6mm) was also modified compared to regular SEC columns (300×6 or 300×8mm). Because the analytes are excluded from the pores in SEC, the retention factors are very low, ranging from -1

An evaluation of soil sampling for 137Cs using various field-sampling volumes.

PubMed

Nyhan, J W; White, G C; Schofield, T G; Trujillo, G

1983-05-01

The sediments from a liquid effluent receiving area at the Los Alamos National Laboratory and soils from an intensive study area in the fallout pathway of Trinity were sampled for 137Cs using 25-, 500-, 2500- and 12,500-cm3 field sampling volumes. A highly replicated sampling program was used to determine mean concentrations and inventories of 137Cs at each site, as well as estimates of spatial, aliquoting, and counting variance components of the radionuclide data. The sampling methods were also analyzed as a function of soil size fractions collected in each field sampling volume and of the total cost of the program for a given variation in the radionuclide survey results. Coefficients of variation (CV) of 137Cs inventory estimates ranged from 0.063 to 0.14 for Mortandad Canyon sediments, whereas CV values for Trinity soils were observed from 0.38 to 0.57. Spatial variance components of 137Cs concentration data were usually found to be larger than either the aliquoting or counting variance estimates and were inversely related to field sampling volume at the Trinity intensive site. Subsequent optimization studies of the sampling schemes demonstrated that each aliquot should be counted once, and that only 2-4 aliquots out of as many as 30 collected need be assayed for 137Cs. The optimization studies showed that as sample costs increased to 45 man-hours of labor per sample, the variance of the mean 137Cs concentration decreased dramatically, but decreased very little with additional labor.

Statistical aspects of quantitative real-time PCR experiment design.

PubMed

Kitchen, Robert R; Kubista, Mikael; Tichopad, Ales

2010-04-01

Experiments using quantitative real-time PCR to test hypotheses are limited by technical and biological variability; we seek to minimise sources of confounding variability through optimum use of biological and technical replicates. The quality of an experiment design is commonly assessed by calculating its prospective power. Such calculations rely on knowledge of the expected variances of the measurements of each group of samples and the magnitude of the treatment effect; the estimation of which is often uninformed and unreliable. Here we introduce a method that exploits a small pilot study to estimate the biological and technical variances in order to improve the design of a subsequent large experiment. We measure the variance contributions at several 'levels' of the experiment design and provide a means of using this information to predict both the total variance and the prospective power of the assay. A validation of the method is provided through a variance analysis of representative genes in several bovine tissue-types. We also discuss the effect of normalisation to a reference gene in terms of the measured variance components of the gene of interest. Finally, we describe a software implementation of these methods, powerNest, that gives the user the opportunity to input data from a pilot study and interactively modify the design of the assay. The software automatically calculates expected variances, statistical power, and optimal design of the larger experiment. powerNest enables the researcher to minimise the total confounding variance and maximise prospective power for a specified maximum cost for the large study. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Minimum variance optimal rate allocation for multiplexed H.264/AVC bitstreams.

PubMed

Tagliasacchi, Marco; Valenzise, Giuseppe; Tubaro, Stefano

2008-07-01

Consider the problem of transmitting multiple video streams to fulfill a constant bandwidth constraint. The available bit budget needs to be distributed across the sequences in order to meet some optimality criteria. For example, one might want to minimize the average distortion or, alternatively, minimize the distortion variance, in order to keep almost constant quality among the encoded sequences. By working in the rho-domain, we propose a low-delay rate allocation scheme that, at each time instant, provides a closed form solution for either the aforementioned problems. We show that minimizing the distortion variance instead of the average distortion leads, for each of the multiplexed sequences, to a coding penalty less than 0.5 dB, in terms of average PSNR. In addition, our analysis provides an explicit relationship between model parameters and this loss. In order to smooth the distortion also along time, we accommodate a shared encoder buffer to compensate for rate fluctuations. Although the proposed scheme is general, and it can be adopted for any video and image coding standard, we provide experimental evidence by transcoding bitstreams encoded using the state-of-the-art H.264/AVC standard. The results of our simulations reveal that is it possible to achieve distortion smoothing both in time and across the sequences, without sacrificing coding efficiency.

Groundwater management under uncertainty using a stochastic multi-cell model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joodavi, Ata; Zare, Mohammad; Ziaei, Ali Naghi; Ferré, Ty P. A.

2017-08-01

The optimization of spatially complex groundwater management models over long time horizons requires the use of computationally efficient groundwater flow models. This paper presents a new stochastic multi-cell lumped-parameter aquifer model that explicitly considers uncertainty in groundwater recharge. To achieve this, the multi-cell model is combined with the constrained-state formulation method. In this method, the lower and upper bounds of groundwater heads are incorporated into the mass balance equation using indicator functions. This provides expressions for the means, variances and covariances of the groundwater heads, which can be included in the constraint set in an optimization model. This method was used to formulate two separate stochastic models: (i) groundwater flow in a two-cell aquifer model with normal and non-normal distributions of groundwater recharge; and (ii) groundwater management in a multiple cell aquifer in which the differences between groundwater abstractions and water demands are minimized. The comparison between the results obtained from the proposed modeling technique with those from Monte Carlo simulation demonstrates the capability of the proposed models to approximate the means, variances and covariances. Significantly, considering covariances between the heads of adjacent cells allows a more accurate estimate of the variances of the groundwater heads. Moreover, this modeling technique requires no discretization of state variables, thus offering an efficient alternative to computationally demanding methods.

Irrational beliefs, optimism, pessimism, and psychological distress: a preliminary examination of differential effects in a college population.

PubMed

Chang, E C; Bridewell, W B

1998-02-01

The present study compared the effects of irrational beliefs measured by the Survey of Personal Beliefs (SPB) and optimism and pessimism as measured by the revised Life Orientation Test (LOT-R) on depressive and anxious symptoms 6 weeks later. Results of analysis of variances for both measures of psychological distress indicated a significant main effect for pessimism only. Implications for Ellis Rational Emotive Therapy are discussed.

Final Environmental Assessment: Hurlburt Field Skeet & Trap Club

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-07-01

Invasive Species). To date, 18 Category I and 8 Category II species have been documented on Eglin AFB. Chinese tallow, or popcorn tree ( Triadica ... sebifera ), cogon grass (Imperata cylindrical), Japanese climbing fern (Lygodium japonicum), Chinese privet/hedge (Ligustrum sinense), and torpedo grass

77 FR 51590 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NYSE MKT LLC; Order Granting Approval of Proposed Rule Change...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-08-24

... position held for the same duration. The Exchange believes that the structure of the product will enable investors to hedge or obtain exposure to discrete portions of the total return of a security. DIVS. The...

76 FR 21664 - Final Flood Elevation Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-04-18

... from the requirements of 44 CFR part 10, Environmental Consideration. An environmental impact... Unincorporated Areas of Walnut Creek. Franklin County. Approximately 800 feet +1038 downstream of Hedge Road... 97502. Unincorporated Areas of Jackson County Maps are available for inspection at City Hall, 10 South...

Variance adaptation in navigational decision making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gershow, Marc; Gepner, Ruben; Wolk, Jason; Wadekar, Digvijay

Drosophila larvae navigate their environments using a biased random walk strategy. A key component of this strategy is the decision to initiate a turn (change direction) in response to declining conditions. We modeled this decision as the output of a Linear-Nonlinear-Poisson cascade and used reverse correlation with visual and fictive olfactory stimuli to find the parameters of this model. Because the larva responds to changes in stimulus intensity, we used stimuli with uncorrelated normally distributed intensity derivatives, i.e. Brownian processes, and took the stimulus derivative as the input to our LNP cascade. In this way, we were able to present stimuli with 0 mean and controlled variance. We found that the nonlinear rate function depended on the variance in the stimulus input, allowing larvae to respond more strongly to small changes in low-noise compared to high-noise environments. We measured the rate at which the larva adapted its behavior following changes in stimulus variance, and found that larvae adapted more quickly to increases in variance than to decreases, consistent with the behavior of an optimal Bayes estimator. Supported by NIH Grant 1DP2EB022359 and NSF Grant PHY-1455015.

Children's emotion understanding: A meta-analysis of training studies.

PubMed

Sprung, Manuel; Münch, Hannah M; Harris, Paul L; Ebesutani, Chad; Hofmann, Stefan G

2015-09-01

In the course of development, children show increased insight and understanding of emotions-both of their own emotions and those of others. However, little is known about the efficacy of training programs aimed at improving children's understanding of emotion. To conduct an effect size analysis of trainings aimed at three aspects of emotion understanding: external aspects (i.e., the recognition of emotional expressions, understanding external causes of emotion, understanding the influence of reminders on present emotions); mental aspects (i.e., understanding desire-based emotions, understanding belief-based emotions, understanding hidden emotions); and reflective aspects (i.e., understanding the regulation of an emotion, understanding mixed emotions, understanding moral emotions). A literature search was conducted using PubMed, PsycInfo, the Cochrane Library, and manual searches. The search identified 19 studies or experiments including a total of 749 children with an average age of 86 months ( S.D .=30.71) from seven different countries. Emotion understanding training procedures are effective for improving external (Hedge's g = 0.62), mental (Hedge's g = 0.31), and reflective (Hedge's g = 0.64) aspects of emotion understanding. These effect sizes were robust and generally unrelated to the number and lengths of training sessions, length of the training period, year of publication, and sample type. However, training setting and social setting moderated the effect of emotion understanding training on the understanding of external aspects of emotion. For the length of training session and social setting, we observed significant moderator effects of training on reflective aspects of emotion. Emotion understanding training may be a promising tool for both preventive intervention and the psychotherapeutic process. However, more well-controlled studies are needed.

Effects of Mind-Body Exercises for Mood and Functional Capabilities in Patients with Stroke: An Analytical Review of Randomized Controlled Trials.

PubMed

Zou, Liye; Yeung, Albert; Zeng, Nan; Wang, Chaoyi; Sun, Li; Thomas, Garrett Anthony; Wang, Huiru

2018-04-11

Objective : The effects of stroke are both physical and mental in nature and may have serious implications on the overall well-being of stroke survivors. This analytical review aims to critically evaluate and statistically synthesize the existing literature regarding the effects of mind-body (MB) exercises on mood and functional capabilities in patients with stroke. Methods : A structured literature review was performed in both English (PubMed, PEDro, and Cochrane Library) and Chinese (Wanfang and CNKI (Chinese National Knowledge Information Database)) databases. Sixteen randomized controlled trials were considered eligible for meta-analysis. Based on the random effects model, we used the pooled effect size to determine the magnitude of rehabilitative effect of MB exercise intervention on depression, anxiety, activities of daily living, and functional mobility among stroke survivors. The sum PEDro score ranged from five to nine points (fair-to-good methodological quality), but the absence of concealed allocation and blinded assessors were reported in most studies. Results : The aggregated results showed that MB exercise intervention is associated with significantly improved ADL (Hedges' g = 1.31, 95% CI 0.85 to 1.77, p < 0.001, I ² = 79.82%) and mobility (Hedges' g = 0.67, 95% CI 0.25 to 1.09, p < 0.001, I ² = 69.65%), and reduced depression (Hedges' g = -0.76, 95% CI -1.16 to -0.35, p < 0.001, I ² = 74.84%). Conclusions : as add-on treatments, the MB exercises may potentially improve depression, activities of daily living, and mobility of these post-stroke patients. Future studies with more robust methodology will be needed to provide a more definitive conclusion.

Hedge your bets on Flood Risk: How do Hedgerows modify hillslope and catchment scale hydrological response?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coates, Victoria; Pattison, Ian

2017-04-01

A dominant feature in the agricultural landscape in the UK are field boundaries. Two thirds of England has been continuously hedged for over a thousand years although most modern hedges were planted during the Enclosures Acts 1720-1840. However, the use of larger agricultural machinery has resulted in the removal of some field boundaries and the subsequent increase in field sizes over the 20th Century. The multiple benefits of hedgerows in ecology have been extensively studied, but the impact of these widespread features on hydrology and flood risk has seen very little attention. Nature-based solutions are increasingly being seen as a complementary approach to hard engineered flood defences. It is hypothesised that hedgerows play a part in this through modifying hillslope hydrological processes, including (a) changing the spatial distribution of precipitation due to sheltering effects; (b) biological loss of water through transpiration; (c) infiltration increased through improved soil structure at the boundaries; and (d) throughflow effected by modified hydraulic gradients. An extensive monitoring programme of a 20m transect through a hedgerow in the Skell Catchment, Northern England occurred from April 2014 to October 2015. The holistic hydrological cycle was monitored, including precipitation and soil moisture at different distances from the hedgerow, leaf wetness interception, stemflow collars, and throughfall gauges, and transpiration losses from the hedgerow. Results indicate that hedgerows modify precipitation volumes at different distances along the transect, but that relationships are complex, probably related to event specific weather conditions such as wind direction and speed and rainfall intensity. Soil moisture levels are significantly (p<0.001) lower along the hedgerow compared to 1, 3 and 10m away from it in all seasons. It has also been shown that hedgerows modify hydrological connectivity at the catchment scale.

The Effect of Hypnosis on Anxiety in Patients With Cancer: A Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Chen, Pei-Ying; Liu, Ying-Mei; Chen, Mei-Ling

2017-06-01

Anxiety is a common form of psychological distress in patients with cancer. One recognized nonpharmacological intervention to reduce anxiety for various populations is hypnotherapy or hypnosis. However, its effect in reducing anxiety in cancer patients has not been systematically evaluated. This meta-analysis was designed to synthesize the immediate and sustained effects of hypnosis on anxiety of cancer patients and to identify moderators for these hypnosis effects. Qualified studies including randomized controlled trials (RCT) and pre-post design studies were identified by searching seven electronic databases: Scopus, Medline Ovidsp, PubMed, PsycInfo-Ovid, Academic Search Premier, CINAHL Plus with FT-EBSCO, and SDOL. Effect size (Hedges' g) was computed for each study. Random-effect modeling was used to combine effect sizes across studies. All statistical analyses were conducted with Comprehensive Meta-Analysis, version 2 (Biostat, Inc., Englewood, NJ, USA). Our meta-analysis of 20 studies found that hypnosis had a significant immediate effect on anxiety in cancer patients (Hedges' g: 0.70-1.41, p < .01) and the effect was sustained (Hedges' g: 0.61-2.77, p < .01). The adjusted mean effect size (determined by Duvan and Tweedie's trim-and-fill method) was 0.46. RCTs had a significantly higher effect size than non-RCT studies. Higher mean effect sizes were also found with pediatric study samples, hematological malignancy, studies on procedure-related stressors, and with mixed-gender samples. Hypnosis delivered by a therapist was significantly more effective than self-hypnosis. Hypnosis can reduce anxiety of cancer patients, especially for pediatric cancer patients who experience procedure-related stress. We recommend therapist-delivered hypnosis should be preferred until more effective self-hypnosis strategies are developed. © 2017 Sigma Theta Tau International.

A meta-analytic review of the impact of intranasal oxytocin administration on cortisol concentrations during laboratory tasks: moderation by method and mental health.

PubMed

Cardoso, Christopher; Kingdon, Danielle; Ellenbogen, Mark A

2014-11-01

A large body of research has examined the acute effects of intranasal oxytocin administration on social cognition and stress-regulation. While progress has been made with respect to understanding the effect of oxytocin administration on social cognition in clinical populations (e.g. autism, schizophrenia), less is known about its impact on the functioning of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis among individuals with a mental disorder. We conducted a meta-analysis on the acute effect of intranasal oxytocin administration on the cortisol response to laboratory tasks. The search yielded eighteen studies employing a randomized, placebo-controlled design (k=18, N=675). Random-effects models and moderator analyses were performed using the metafor package for the statistical program R. The overall effect size estimate was modest and not statistically significant (Hedges g=-0.151, p=0.11) with moderate heterogeneity in this effect across studies (I(2)=31%). Controlling for baseline differences in cortisol concentrations, moderation analyses revealed that this effect was larger in response to challenging laboratory tasks that produced a robust stimulation of the HPA-axis (Hedges g=-0.433, 95% CI[-0.841, -0.025]), and in clinical populations relative to healthy controls (Hedges g=-0.742, 95% CI[-1.405, -0.078]). Overall, oxytocin administration showed greater attenuation of the cortisol response to laboratory tasks that strongly activated the HPA-axis, relative to tasks that did not. The effect was more robust among clinical populations, suggesting possible increased sensitivity to oxytocin among those with a clinical diagnosis and concomitant social difficulties. These data support the view that oxytocin may play an important role in HPA dysfunction associated with psychopathology. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Nasal vs Oronasal CPAP for OSA Treatment: A Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Andrade, Rafaela G S; Viana, Fernanda M; Nascimento, Juliana A; Drager, Luciano F; Moffa, Adriano; Brunoni, André R; Genta, Pedro R; Lorenzi-Filho, Geraldo

2018-03-01

Nasal CPAP is the "gold standard" treatment for OSA. However, oronasal masks are frequently used in clinical practice. The aim of this study was to perform a meta-analysis of all randomized and nonrandomized trials that compared nasal vs oronasal masks on CPAP level, residual apnea-hypopnea index (AHI), and CPAP adherence to treat OSA. The Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Medline, and Web of Science were searched for relevant studies in any language with the following terms: "sleep apnea" and "CPAP" or "sleep apnea" and "oronasal mask" or "OSA" and "oronasal CPAP" or "oronasal mask" and "adherence." Studies on CPAP treatment for OSA were included, based on the following criteria: (1) original article; (2) randomized or nonrandomized trials; and (3) comparison between nasal and oronasal CPAP including pressure level, and/or residual AHI, and/or CPAP adherence. We identified five randomized and eight nonrandomized trials (4,563 patients) that reported CPAP level and/or residual AHI and/or CPAP adherence. Overall, the random-effects meta-analysis revealed that as compared with nasal, oronasal masks were associated with a significantly higher CPAP level (Hedges' g, -0.59; 95% CI, -0.82 to -0.37; P < .001) (on average, +1.5 cm H 2 O), higher residual AHI (Hedges' g, -0.34; 95% CI, -0.52 to -0.17; P < .001) (+2.8 events/h), and a poorer adherence (Hedges' g, 0.50; 95% CI, 0.21-0.79; P = .001) (-48 min/night). Oronasal masks are associated with a higher CPAP level, higher residual AHI, and poorer adherence than nasal masks. PROSPERO database; No.: CRD42017064584; URL: https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/. Copyright © 2017 American College of Chest Physicians. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

On Stabilizing the Variance of Dynamic Functional Brain Connectivity Time Series

PubMed Central

Fransson, Peter

2016-01-01

Abstract Assessment of dynamic functional brain connectivity based on functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data is an increasingly popular strategy to investigate temporal dynamics of the brain's large-scale network architecture. Current practice when deriving connectivity estimates over time is to use the Fisher transformation, which aims to stabilize the variance of correlation values that fluctuate around varying true correlation values. It is, however, unclear how well the stabilization of signal variance performed by the Fisher transformation works for each connectivity time series, when the true correlation is assumed to be fluctuating. This is of importance because many subsequent analyses either assume or perform better when the time series have stable variance or adheres to an approximate Gaussian distribution. In this article, using simulations and analysis of resting-state fMRI data, we analyze the effect of applying different variance stabilization strategies on connectivity time series. We focus our investigation on the Fisher transformation, the Box–Cox (BC) transformation and an approach that combines both transformations. Our results show that, if the intention of stabilizing the variance is to use metrics on the time series, where stable variance or a Gaussian distribution is desired (e.g., clustering), the Fisher transformation is not optimal and may even skew connectivity time series away from being Gaussian. Furthermore, we show that the suboptimal performance of the Fisher transformation can be substantially improved by including an additional BC transformation after the dynamic functional connectivity time series has been Fisher transformed. PMID:27784176

On Stabilizing the Variance of Dynamic Functional Brain Connectivity Time Series.

PubMed

Thompson, William Hedley; Fransson, Peter

2016-12-01

Assessment of dynamic functional brain connectivity based on functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data is an increasingly popular strategy to investigate temporal dynamics of the brain's large-scale network architecture. Current practice when deriving connectivity estimates over time is to use the Fisher transformation, which aims to stabilize the variance of correlation values that fluctuate around varying true correlation values. It is, however, unclear how well the stabilization of signal variance performed by the Fisher transformation works for each connectivity time series, when the true correlation is assumed to be fluctuating. This is of importance because many subsequent analyses either assume or perform better when the time series have stable variance or adheres to an approximate Gaussian distribution. In this article, using simulations and analysis of resting-state fMRI data, we analyze the effect of applying different variance stabilization strategies on connectivity time series. We focus our investigation on the Fisher transformation, the Box-Cox (BC) transformation and an approach that combines both transformations. Our results show that, if the intention of stabilizing the variance is to use metrics on the time series, where stable variance or a Gaussian distribution is desired (e.g., clustering), the Fisher transformation is not optimal and may even skew connectivity time series away from being Gaussian. Furthermore, we show that the suboptimal performance of the Fisher transformation can be substantially improved by including an additional BC transformation after the dynamic functional connectivity time series has been Fisher transformed.

"Near-term" Natural Catastrophe Risk Management and Risk Hedging in a Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michel, Gero; Tiampo, Kristy

2014-05-01

Competing with analytics - Can the insurance market take advantage of seasonal or "near-term" forecasting and temporal changes in risk? Natural perils (re)insurance has been based on models following climatology i.e. the long-term "historical" average. This is opposed to considering the "near-term" and forecasting hazard and risk for the seasons or years to come. Variability and short-term changes in risk are deemed abundant for almost all perils. In addition to hydrometeorological perils whose changes are vastly discussed, earthquake activity might also change over various time-scales affected by earlier local (or even global) events, regional changes in the distribution of stresses and strains and more. Only recently has insurance risk modeling of (stochastic) hurricane-years or extratropical-storm-years started considering our ability to forecast climate variability herewith taking advantage of apparent correlations between climate indicators and the activity of storm events. Once some of these "near-term measures" were in the market, rating agencies and regulators swiftly adopted these concepts demanding companies to deploy a selection of more conservative "time-dependent" models. This was despite the fact that the ultimate effect of some of these measures on insurance risk was not well understood. Apparent short-term success over the last years in near-term seasonal hurricane forecasting was brought to a halt in 2013 when these models failed to forecast the exceptional shortage of hurricanes herewith contradicting an active-year forecast. The focus of earthquake forecasting has in addition been mostly on high rather than low temporal and regional activity despite the fact that avoiding losses does not by itself create a product. This presentation sheds light on new risk management concepts for over-regional and global (re)insurance portfolios that take advantage of forecasting changes in risk. The presentation focuses on the "upside" and on new opportunities in risk-taking rather than the "downside" and the general notion that catastrophes will get worse. The focus will be on the industry's ability to hedge and optimize risk more efficiently in a changing environment.

SU-D-218-05: Material Quantification in Spectral X-Ray Imaging: Optimization and Validation.

PubMed

Nik, S J; Thing, R S; Watts, R; Meyer, J

2012-06-01

To develop and validate a multivariate statistical method to optimize scanning parameters for material quantification in spectral x-rayimaging. An optimization metric was constructed by extensively sampling the thickness space for the expected number of counts for m (two or three) materials. This resulted in an m-dimensional confidence region ofmaterial quantities, e.g. thicknesses. Minimization of the ellipsoidal confidence region leads to the optimization of energy bins. For the given spectrum, the minimum counts required for effective material separation can be determined by predicting the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of the quantification. A Monte Carlo (MC) simulation framework using BEAM was developed to validate the metric. Projection data of the m-materials was generated and material decomposition was performed for combinations of iodine, calcium and water by minimizing the z-score between the expected spectrum and binned measurements. The mean square error (MSE) and variance were calculated to measure the accuracy and precision of this approach, respectively. The minimum MSE corresponds to the optimal energy bins in the BEAM simulations. In the optimization metric, this is equivalent to the smallest confidence region. The SNR of the simulated images was also compared to the predictions from the metric. TheMSE was dominated by the variance for the given material combinations,which demonstrates accurate material quantifications. The BEAMsimulations revealed that the optimization of energy bins was accurate to within 1keV. The SNRs predicted by the optimization metric yielded satisfactory agreement but were expectedly higher for the BEAM simulations due to the inclusion of scattered radiation. The validation showed that the multivariate statistical method provides accurate material quantification, correct location of optimal energy bins and adequateprediction of image SNR. The BEAM code system is suitable for generating spectral x- ray imaging simulations. © 2012 American Association of Physicists in Medicine.

Family Dynamics and Personal Strengths among Dementia Caregivers in Argentina

PubMed Central

Elnasseh, Aaliah G.; Trujillo, Michael A.; Peralta, Silvina Victoria; Stolfi, Miriam E.; Morelli, Eliana; Perrin, Paul B.

2016-01-01

This study examined whether healthier family dynamics were associated with higher personal strengths of resilience, sense of coherence, and optimism among dementia caregivers in Argentina. Caregivers are usually required to assist individuals with dementia, and family members have typically fulfilled that role. Personal strengths such as resilience, sense of coherence, and optimism have been shown to protect caregivers from some of the negative experiences of providing care, though the family-related variables associated with these personal strengths are largely unknown. Hierarchical multiple regressions investigated the extent to which family dynamics variables are associated with each of the caregiver personal strengths after controlling for demographic and caregiver characteristics. A sample of 105 caregivers from Argentina completed a set of questionnaires during a neurologist visit. Family dynamics explained 32% of the variance in resilience and 39% of the variance in sense of coherence. Greater family empathy and decreased family problems were uniquely associated with higher resilience. Greater communication and decreased family problems were uniquely associated with higher sense of coherence. Optimism was not found to be significantly associated with family dynamics. These results suggest that caregiver intervention research focused on the family may help improve caregiver personal strengths in Argentina and other Latin American countries. PMID:27413574

An Experience Oriented-Convergence Improved Gravitational Search Algorithm for Minimum Variance Distortionless Response Beamforming Optimum.

PubMed

Darzi, Soodabeh; Tiong, Sieh Kiong; Tariqul Islam, Mohammad; Rezai Soleymanpour, Hassan; Kibria, Salehin

2016-01-01

An experience oriented-convergence improved gravitational search algorithm (ECGSA) based on two new modifications, searching through the best experiments and using of a dynamic gravitational damping coefficient (α), is introduced in this paper. ECGSA saves its best fitness function evaluations and uses those as the agents' positions in searching process. In this way, the optimal found trajectories are retained and the search starts from these trajectories, which allow the algorithm to avoid the local optimums. Also, the agents can move faster in search space to obtain better exploration during the first stage of the searching process and they can converge rapidly to the optimal solution at the final stage of the search process by means of the proposed dynamic gravitational damping coefficient. The performance of ECGSA has been evaluated by applying it to eight standard benchmark functions along with six complicated composite test functions. It is also applied to adaptive beamforming problem as a practical issue to improve the weight vectors computed by minimum variance distortionless response (MVDR) beamforming technique. The results of implementation of the proposed algorithm are compared with some well-known heuristic methods and verified the proposed method in both reaching to optimal solutions and robustness.

Assimilation of seasonal chlorophyll and nutrient data into an adjoint three-dimensional ocean carbon cycle model: Sensitivity analysis and ecosystem parameter optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tjiputra, Jerry F.; Polzin, Dierk; Winguth, Arne M. E.

2007-03-01

An adjoint method is applied to a three-dimensional global ocean biogeochemical cycle model to optimize the ecosystem parameters on the basis of SeaWiFS surface chlorophyll observation. We showed with identical twin experiments that the model simulated chlorophyll concentration is sensitive to perturbation of phytoplankton and zooplankton exudation, herbivore egestion as fecal pellets, zooplankton grazing, and the assimilation efficiency parameters. The assimilation of SeaWiFS chlorophyll data significantly improved the prediction of chlorophyll concentration, especially in the high-latitude regions. Experiments that considered regional variations of parameters yielded a high seasonal variance of ecosystem parameters in the high latitudes, but a low variance in the tropical regions. These experiments indicate that the adjoint model is, despite the many uncertainties, generally capable to optimize sensitive parameters and carbon fluxes in the euphotic zone. The best fit regional parameters predict a global net primary production of 36 Pg C yr-1, which lies within the range suggested by Antoine et al. (1996). Additional constraints of nutrient data from the World Ocean Atlas showed further reduction in the model-data misfit and that assimilation with extensive data sets is necessary.

Estimation and prediction under local volatility jump-diffusion model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Namhyoung; Lee, Younhee

2018-02-01

Volatility is an important factor in operating a company and managing risk. In the portfolio optimization and risk hedging using the option, the value of the option is evaluated using the volatility model. Various attempts have been made to predict option value. Recent studies have shown that stochastic volatility models and jump-diffusion models reflect stock price movements accurately. However, these models have practical limitations. Combining them with the local volatility model, which is widely used among practitioners, may lead to better performance. In this study, we propose a more effective and efficient method of estimating option prices by combining the local volatility model with the jump-diffusion model and apply it using both artificial and actual market data to evaluate its performance. The calibration process for estimating the jump parameters and local volatility surfaces is divided into three stages. We apply the local volatility model, stochastic volatility model, and local volatility jump-diffusion model estimated by the proposed method to KOSPI 200 index option pricing. The proposed method displays good estimation and prediction performance.

Snohomish Estuary Wetlands Study. Volume IV. Delineation of Wetland Boundaries

DTIC Science & Technology

1978-08-01

elderberry ( Sambucus race- mosa) form the understory, along with hedge nettle (Stachys cooleyae), -48- nettle (Urtica spp.) and thistles (Cirsium spp...identified aquatic lands as areas supporting certain flowering plants and algae common to intertidal areas. NEC noted that mosspecies listed occurred low

Division of Labor, Bet Hedging, and the Evolution of Mixed Biofilm Investment Strategies

PubMed Central

McNally, Luke; Ratcliff, William C.

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Bacterial cells, like many other organisms, face a tradeoff between longevity and fecundity. Planktonic cells are fast growing and fragile, while biofilm cells are often slower growing but stress resistant. Here we ask why bacterial lineages invest simultaneously in both fast- and slow-growing types. We develop a population dynamic model of lineage expansion across a patchy environment and find that mixed investment is favored across a broad range of environmental conditions, even when transmission is entirely via biofilm cells. This mixed strategy is favored because of a division of labor where exponentially dividing planktonic cells can act as an engine for the production of future biofilm cells, which grow more slowly. We use experimental evolution to test our predictions and show that phenotypic heterogeneity is persistent even under selection for purely planktonic or purely biofilm transmission. Furthermore, simulations suggest that maintenance of a biofilm subpopulation serves as a cost-effective hedge against environmental uncertainty, which is also consistent with our experimental findings. PMID:28790201

Mindfulness-based interventions for binge eating: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Godfrey, Kathryn M; Gallo, Linda C; Afari, Niloofar

2015-04-01

Mindfulness-based interventions are increasingly used to treat binge eating. The effects of these interventions have not been reviewed comprehensively. This systematic review and meta-analysis sought to summarize the literature on mindfulness-based interventions and determine their impact on binge eating behavior. PubMED, Web of Science, and PsycINFO were searched using keywords binge eating, overeating, objective bulimic episodes, acceptance and commitment therapy, dialectical behavior therapy, mindfulness, meditation, mindful eating. Of 151 records screened, 19 studies met inclusion criteria. Most studies showed effects of large magnitude. Results of random effects meta-analyses supported large or medium-large effects of these interventions on binge eating (within-group random effects mean Hedge's g = -1.12, 95 % CI -1.67, -0.80, k = 18; between-group mean Hedge's g = -0.70, 95 % CI -1.16, -0.24, k = 7). However, there was high statistical heterogeneity among the studies (within-group I(2) = 93 %; between-group I(2) = 90 %). Limitations and future research directions are discussed.

Better Bet-Hedging with coupled positive and negative feedback loops

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Narula, Jatin; Igoshin, Oleg

2011-03-01

Bacteria use the phenotypic heterogeneity associated with bistable switches to distribute the risk of activating stress response strategies like sporulation and persistence. However bistable switches offer little control over the timing of phenotype switching and first passage times (FPT) for individual cells are found to be exponentially distributed. We show that a genetic circuit consisting of interlinked positive and negative feedback loops allows cells to control the timing of phenotypic switching. Using a mathematical model we find that in this system a stable high expression state and stable low expression limit cycle coexist and the FPT distribution for stochastic transitions between them shows multiple peaks at regular intervals. A multimodal FPT distribution allows cells to detect the persistence of stress and control the rate of phenotype transition of the population. We further show that extracellular signals from cell-cell communication that change the strength of the feedback loops can modulate the FPT distribution and allow cells even greater control in a bet-hedging strategy.

Clinical Effectiveness of Occupational Therapy in Mental Health: A Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Ikiugu, Moses N; Nissen, Ranelle M; Bellar, Cali; Maassen, Alexya; Van Peursem, Katlin

The purpose of this study was to estimate the effectiveness of theory-based occupational therapy interventions in improving occupational performance and well-being among people with a mental health diagnosis. The meta-analysis included 11 randomized controlled trials with a total of 520 adult participants with a mental health diagnosis. Outcomes were occupational performance, well-being, or both. We conducted meta-analyses using Comprehensive Meta-Analysis software (Version 3.0) with occupational performance and well-being as the dependent variables. Results indicated a medium effect of intervention on improving occupational performance (mean Hedge's g = 0.50, Z = 4.05, p < .001) and a small effect on well-being (mean Hedge's g = 0.46, Z = 4.96, p < .001). Theory-based occupational therapy interventions may be effective in improving occupational performance and well-being among people with a mental health diagnosis and should be an integral part of rehabilitation services in mental health. Copyright © 2017 by the American Occupational Therapy Association, Inc.

The effect of heart rate variability biofeedback training on stress and anxiety: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Goessl, V C; Curtiss, J E; Hofmann, S G

2017-11-01

Some evidence suggests that heart rate variability (HRV) biofeedback might be an effective way to treat anxiety and stress symptoms. To examine the effect of HRV biofeedback on symptoms of anxiety and stress, we conducted a meta-analysis of studies extracted from PubMed, PsycINFO and the Cochrane Library. The search identified 24 studies totaling 484 participants who received HRV biofeedback training for stress and anxiety. We conducted a random-effects meta-analysis. The pre-post within-group effect size (Hedges' g) was 0.81. The between-groups analysis comparing biofeedback to a control condition yielded Hedges' g = 0.83. Moderator analyses revealed that treatment efficacy was not moderated by study year, risk of study bias, percentage of females, number of sessions, or presence of an anxiety disorder. HRV biofeedback training is associated with a large reduction in self-reported stress and anxiety. Although more well-controlled studies are needed, this intervention offers a promising approach for treating stress and anxiety with wearable devices.

Excitation variance matching with limited configuration interaction expansions in variational Monte Carlo

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Robinson, Paul J.; Pineda Flores, Sergio D.; Neuscamman, Eric

In the regime where traditional approaches to electronic structure cannot afford to achieve accurate energy differences via exhaustive wave function flexibility, rigorous approaches to balancing different states’ accuracies become desirable. As a direct measure of a wave function’s accuracy, the energy variance offers one route to achieving such a balance. Here, we develop and test a variance matching approach for predicting excitation energies within the context of variational Monte Carlo and selective configuration interaction. In a series of tests on small but difficult molecules, we demonstrate that the approach it is effective at delivering accurate excitation energies when the wavemore » function is far from the exhaustive flexibility limit. Results in C3, where we combine this approach with variational Monte Carlo orbital optimization, are especially encouraging.« less

Excitation variance matching with limited configuration interaction expansions in variational Monte Carlo

DOE PAGES

Robinson, Paul J.; Pineda Flores, Sergio D.; Neuscamman, Eric

2017-10-28

In the regime where traditional approaches to electronic structure cannot afford to achieve accurate energy differences via exhaustive wave function flexibility, rigorous approaches to balancing different states’ accuracies become desirable. As a direct measure of a wave function’s accuracy, the energy variance offers one route to achieving such a balance. Here, we develop and test a variance matching approach for predicting excitation energies within the context of variational Monte Carlo and selective configuration interaction. In a series of tests on small but difficult molecules, we demonstrate that the approach it is effective at delivering accurate excitation energies when the wavemore » function is far from the exhaustive flexibility limit. Results in C3, where we combine this approach with variational Monte Carlo orbital optimization, are especially encouraging.« less

Replica Approach for Minimal Investment Risk with Cost

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shinzato, Takashi

2018-06-01

In the present work, the optimal portfolio minimizing the investment risk with cost is discussed analytically, where an objective function is constructed in terms of two negative aspects of investment, the risk and cost. We note the mathematical similarity between the Hamiltonian in the mean-variance model and the Hamiltonians in the Hopfield model and the Sherrington-Kirkpatrick model, show that we can analyze this portfolio optimization problem by using replica analysis, and derive the minimal investment risk with cost and the investment concentration of the optimal portfolio. Furthermore, we validate our proposed method through numerical simulations.

Ant colony algorithm for clustering in portfolio optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Subekti, R.; Sari, E. R.; Kusumawati, R.

2018-03-01

This research aims to describe portfolio optimization using clustering methods with ant colony approach. Two stock portfolios of LQ45 Indonesia is proposed based on the cluster results obtained from ant colony optimization (ACO). The first portfolio consists of assets with ant colony displacement opportunities beyond the defined probability limits of the researcher, where the weight of each asset is determined by mean-variance method. The second portfolio consists of two assets with the assumption that each asset is a cluster formed from ACO. The first portfolio has a better performance compared to the second portfolio seen from the Sharpe index.

Estimation of transformation parameters for microarray data.

PubMed

Durbin, Blythe; Rocke, David M

2003-07-22

Durbin et al. (2002), Huber et al. (2002) and Munson (2001) independently introduced a family of transformations (the generalized-log family) which stabilizes the variance of microarray data up to the first order. We introduce a method for estimating the transformation parameter in tandem with a linear model based on the procedure outlined in Box and Cox (1964). We also discuss means of finding transformations within the generalized-log family which are optimal under other criteria, such as minimum residual skewness and minimum mean-variance dependency. R and Matlab code and test data are available from the authors on request.

Null steering of adaptive beamforming using linear constraint minimum variance assisted by particle swarm optimization, dynamic mutated artificial immune system, and gravitational search algorithm.

PubMed

Darzi, Soodabeh; Kiong, Tiong Sieh; Islam, Mohammad Tariqul; Ismail, Mahamod; Kibria, Salehin; Salem, Balasem

2014-01-01

Linear constraint minimum variance (LCMV) is one of the adaptive beamforming techniques that is commonly applied to cancel interfering signals and steer or produce a strong beam to the desired signal through its computed weight vectors. However, weights computed by LCMV usually are not able to form the radiation beam towards the target user precisely and not good enough to reduce the interference by placing null at the interference sources. It is difficult to improve and optimize the LCMV beamforming technique through conventional empirical approach. To provide a solution to this problem, artificial intelligence (AI) technique is explored in order to enhance the LCMV beamforming ability. In this paper, particle swarm optimization (PSO), dynamic mutated artificial immune system (DM-AIS), and gravitational search algorithm (GSA) are incorporated into the existing LCMV technique in order to improve the weights of LCMV. The simulation result demonstrates that received signal to interference and noise ratio (SINR) of target user can be significantly improved by the integration of PSO, DM-AIS, and GSA in LCMV through the suppression of interference in undesired direction. Furthermore, the proposed GSA can be applied as a more effective technique in LCMV beamforming optimization as compared to the PSO technique. The algorithms were implemented using Matlab program.

Null Steering of Adaptive Beamforming Using Linear Constraint Minimum Variance Assisted by Particle Swarm Optimization, Dynamic Mutated Artificial Immune System, and Gravitational Search Algorithm

PubMed Central

Sieh Kiong, Tiong; Tariqul Islam, Mohammad; Ismail, Mahamod; Salem, Balasem

2014-01-01

Linear constraint minimum variance (LCMV) is one of the adaptive beamforming techniques that is commonly applied to cancel interfering signals and steer or produce a strong beam to the desired signal through its computed weight vectors. However, weights computed by LCMV usually are not able to form the radiation beam towards the target user precisely and not good enough to reduce the interference by placing null at the interference sources. It is difficult to improve and optimize the LCMV beamforming technique through conventional empirical approach. To provide a solution to this problem, artificial intelligence (AI) technique is explored in order to enhance the LCMV beamforming ability. In this paper, particle swarm optimization (PSO), dynamic mutated artificial immune system (DM-AIS), and gravitational search algorithm (GSA) are incorporated into the existing LCMV technique in order to improve the weights of LCMV. The simulation result demonstrates that received signal to interference and noise ratio (SINR) of target user can be significantly improved by the integration of PSO, DM-AIS, and GSA in LCMV through the suppression of interference in undesired direction. Furthermore, the proposed GSA can be applied as a more effective technique in LCMV beamforming optimization as compared to the PSO technique. The algorithms were implemented using Matlab program. PMID:25147859

Emotional functioning of adolescents and adults with congenital heart disease: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Jackson, Jamie L; Misiti, Brian; Bridge, Jeffrey A; Daniels, Curt J; Vannatta, Kathryn

2015-01-01

This study aimed to quantitatively compare findings of emotional functioning across studies of adolescents and adults with congenital heart disease (CHD) through meta-analysis. The current meta-analysis included 22 studies of adolescent and adult survivors of CHD who completed measures of emotional functioning. Effect sizes were represented by Hedge's g. Heterogeneity was calculated and possible moderators (i.e., lesion severity, age, study location, study quality) were examined. Overall, adolescent and adult survivors of CHD did not differ in emotional functioning from healthy controls or normative data. However, significant heterogeneity was found, and there was a trend for degree of lesion severity to moderate emotional functioning. Further analysis of lesion severity indicated that individuals with moderate lesions reported better emotional functioning than controls/normative data. Limitations in existing literature precluded examination of patient age as a moderator. Study location and quality did not explain a significant portion of the variance in effects. Findings suggest that differences in emotional functioning may exist across lesion severities, and individuals with moderately severe lesions are emotionally thriving. Given the diversity within CHD lesion classifications, future studies should include other indicators of disease severity, such as measures of morbidity, to determine how disease may affect emotional functioning among survivors of CHD. Furthermore, authors and journals need to ensure that research is reported in enough detail to facilitate meta-analysis, a critically important tool in answering discrepancies in the literature. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Effects of Pharmacotherapy on Combat-Related PTSD, Anxiety, and Depression: A Systematic Review and Meta-Regression Analysis.

PubMed

Puetz, Timothy W; Youngstedt, Shawn D; Herring, Matthew P

2015-01-01

To estimate the effect of pharmacotherapy on PTSD, anxiety, and depression among combat veterans; to determine whether the effects varied according to patient and intervention characteristics; and to examine differential effects of pharmacotherapy on outcomes. Google Scholar, PILOTS, PsycINFO, PubMed, and Web of Science databases were searched through November 2014. Searches resulted in eighteen double-blind, placebo controlled trials of 773 combat veterans diagnosed with PTSD and included only validated pre- and post-intervention PTSD and anxiety or depression measures. Authors extracted data on effect sizes, moderators, and study quality. Hedges' d effect sizes were computed and random effects models estimated sampling error and population variance. The Johnson-Neyman procedure identified the critical points in significant interactions to define regions of significance. Pharmacotherapy significantly reduced (Δ, 95%CI) PTSD (0.38, 0.23-0.52), anxiety (0.42, 0.30-0.54), and depressive symptoms (0.52, 0.35-0.70). The effects of SSRIs and tricyclic antidepressants on PTSD were greater than other medications independent of treatment duration. The effect of SSRIs and tricyclic antidepressants were greater than other medications up to 5.2 and 13.6 weeks for anxiety and depression, respectively. The magnitude of the effect of pharmacotherapy on concurrently-measured PTSD, anxiety, and depression did not significantly differ. Pharmacotherapy reduced PTSD, anxiety, and depressive symptoms in combat veterans. The effects of SSRIs and tricyclic antidepressants were greater for PTSD and occurred quicker for anxiety and depression than other medications.

Time-frequency wavelet analysis of the interrelationship between the global macro assets and the fear indexes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abid, Fathi; Kaffel, Bilel

2018-01-01

Understanding the interrelationships of the global macro assets is crucial for global macro investing. This paper investigates the local variance and the interconnection between the stock, gold, oil, Forex and the implied volatility markets in the time/frequency domains using the wavelet methodology, including the wavelet power spectrum, the wavelet squared coherence and phase difference, the wavelet multiple correlation and cross-correlation. The univariate analysis reveals that, in some crisis periods, underlying asset markets present the same pattern in terms of the wavelet power spectrum indicating high volatility for the medium scale, and that for the other market stress periods, volatility behaves differently. Moreover, unlike the underlying asset markets, the implied volatility markets are characterized by high power regions across the entire period, even in the absence of economic events. Bivariate results show a bidirectional relationship between the underlying assets and their corresponding implied volatility indexes, and a steady co-movement between the stock index and its corresponding fear index. Multiple correlation analysis indicates a strong correlation between markets at high scales with evidence of a nearly perfect integration for a period longer than a year. In addition, the hedging strategies based on the volatility index lead to an increase in portfolio correlation. On the other hand, the results from multiple cross-correlations reveal that the lead-lag effect starts from the medium scale and that the VIX (stock market volatility index) index is the potential leader or follower of the other markets.

Phenotypic Effects of Salt and Heat Stress over Three Generations in Arabidopsis thaliana

PubMed Central

Suter, Léonie; Widmer, Alex

2013-01-01

Current and predicted environmental change will force many organisms to adapt to novel conditions, especially sessile organisms such as plants. It is therefore important to better understand how plants react to environmental stress and to what extent genotypes differ in such responses. It has been proposed that adaptation to novel conditions could be facilitated by heritable epigenetic changes induced by environmental stress, independent of genetic variation. Here we assessed phenotypic effects of heat and salt stress within and across three generations using four highly inbred Arabidopsis thaliana genotypes (Col, Cvi, Ler and Sha). Salt stress generally decreased fitness, but genotypes were differently affected, suggesting that susceptibility of A. thaliana to salt stress varies among genotypes. Heat stress at an early rosette stage had less detrimental effects but accelerated flowering in three out of four accessions. Additionally, we found three different modes of transgenerational effects on phenotypes, all harboring the potential of being adaptive: heat stress in previous generations induced faster rosette growth in Sha, both under heat and control conditions, resembling a tracking response, while in Cvi, the phenotypic variance of several traits increased, resembling diversified bet-hedging. Salt stress experienced in earlier generations altered plant architecture of Sha under salt but not control conditions, similar to transgenerational phenotypic plasticity. However, transgenerational phenotypic effects depended on the type of stress as well as on genotype, suggesting that such effects may not be a general response leading to adaptation to novel environmental conditions in A. thaliana. PMID:24244719

Vocational Instructional Materials in Horticulture for Students with Special Needs.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ethridge, James I.

This resource catalog of horticulture curriculum materials for students with special needs is divided into twenty-seven instructional areas: aboriculture; annuals; entomology; floral crops production; floral design and flower shop operations; garden center; greenhouse; ground covers and hedges; herbs; house plants; landscape construction and…

Livestock Marketing.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Futrell, Gene; And Others

This marketing unit focuses on the seasonal and cyclical patterns of livestock markets. Cash marketing, forward contracting, hedging in the futures markets, and the options markets are examined. Examples illustrate how each marketing tool may be useful in gaining a profit on livestock and cutting risk exposure. The unit is organized in the…

Strategies for Improving Power in Cluster Randomized Studies of Professional Development

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kelcey, Ben; Spybrook, Jessaca; Zhang, Jiaqi; Phelps, Geoffrey; Jones, Nathan

2015-01-01

With research indicating substantial differences among teachers in terms of their effectiveness (Nye, Konstantopoulous, & Hedges, 2004), a major focus of recent research in education has been on improving teacher quality through professional development (Desimone, 2009; Institute of Educations Sciences [IES], 2012; Measures of Effective…

Understanding Financial Innovation: An Introduction to Derivative Financial Products.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Robinson, J. N.

1992-01-01

Explains the use of forwards, futures, swaps, and options in international currency trading. Argues that pricing options are based on the same basic principles as pricing other financial instruments. Concludes that, although financial markets have developed several new products, hedging and speculation involve similar processes. (CFR)

12 CFR 225.180 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... Banking FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM (CONTINUED) BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM (CONTINUED... supervised by the Board means a nonbank financial company supervised by the Board of Governors, as defined in...) Board means the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (f) Illiquid fund means a hedge fund...

12 CFR 225.180 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... Banking FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM (CONTINUED) BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM (CONTINUED... supervised by the Board means a nonbank financial company supervised by the Board of Governors, as defined in...) Board means the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (f) Illiquid fund means a hedge fund...

Interactional Metadiscourse in Research Article Abstracts

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gillaerts, Paul; Van de Velde, Freek

2010-01-01

This paper deals with interpersonality in research article abstracts analysed in terms of interactional metadiscourse. The evolution in the distribution of three prominent interactional markers comprised in Hyland's (2005a) model, viz. hedges, boosters and attitude markers, is investigated in three decades of abstract writing in the field of…

Finding the Time: Restructuring Professional Development, Revitalizing Achievement

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gerringer, Stacey L.

2014-01-01

Research has made it clear, the effectiveness of teachers vary greatly (Nye, Konstantopoulos, & Hedges, 2004), and teacher differences account for some of the variation in student achievement (Rowan, Correnti, & Miller, 2002). The federal act of mandating teachers to be "Highly Qualified" will not single-handedly improve student…

Evaluating a seed technology for sagebrush restoration across an elevation gradient: support for bet hedging

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata Nutt.) restoration is needed across vast areas, especially after large wildfires, to restore important ecosystem services. Sagebrush restoration success is inconsistent with a high rate of seeding failures, particularly at lower elevations. Seed enhancement tech...

12 CFR 956.6 - Use of hedging instruments.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

...; (iii) A description of early termination pricing and methodology, with the methodology reflecting a... International Swaps and Derivatives Association, Inc. language relative to early termination pricing and... obtained prior to the transfer of an agreement or contract by a counterparty. [66 FR 8321, Jan. 30, 2001] ...

In silico Evolution of Lysis-Lysogeny Strategies Reproduces Observed Lysogeny Propensities in Temperate Bacteriophages

PubMed Central

Sinha, Vaibhhav; Goyal, Akshit; Svenningsen, Sine L.; Semsey, Szabolcs; Krishna, Sandeep

2017-01-01

Bacteriophages are the most abundant organisms on the planet and both lytic and temperate phages play key roles as shapers of ecosystems and drivers of bacterial evolution. Temperate phages can choose between (i) lysis: exploiting their bacterial hosts by producing multiple phage particles and releasing them by lysing the host cell, and (ii) lysogeny: establishing a potentially mutually beneficial relationship with the host by integrating their chromosome into the host cell's genome. Temperate phages exhibit lysogeny propensities in the curiously narrow range of 5–15%. For some temperate phages, the propensity is further regulated by the multiplicity of infection, such that single infections go predominantly lytic while multiple infections go predominantly lysogenic. We ask whether these observations can be explained by selection pressures in environments where multiple phage variants compete for the same host. Our models of pairwise competition, between phage variants that differ only in their propensity to lysogenize, predict the optimal lysogeny propensity to fall within the experimentally observed range. This prediction is robust to large variation in parameters such as the phage infection rate, burst size, decision rate, as well as bacterial growth rate, and initial phage to bacteria ratio. When we compete phage variants whose lysogeny strategies are allowed to depend upon multiplicity of infection, we find that the optimal strategy is one which switches from full lysis for single infections to full lysogeny for multiple infections. Previous attempts to explain lysogeny propensity have argued for bet-hedging that optimizes the response to fluctuating environmental conditions. Our results suggest that there is an additional selection pressure for lysogeny propensity within phage populations infecting a bacterial host, independent of environmental conditions. PMID:28798729

Effect of Integrated Water-Nutrient Management Strategies on Soil Erosion Mediated Nutrient Loss and Crop Productivity in Cabo Verde Drylands

PubMed Central

Baptista, Isaurinda; Ritsema, Coen; Geissen, Violette

2015-01-01

Soil erosion, runoff and related nutrient losses are a big risk for soil fertility in Cabo Verde drylands. In 2012, field trials were conducted in two agro-ecological zones to evaluate the effects of selected techniques of soil-water management combined with organic amendments (T1: compost/manure + soil surfactant; T2: compost/animal or green manure + pigeon-pea hedges + soil surfactant; T3: compost/animal or green manure + mulch + pigeon-pea hedges) on nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) losses in eroded soil and runoff and on crop yields. Three treatments and one control (traditional practice) were tested in field plots at three sites with a local maize variety and two types of beans. Runoff and eroded soil were collected after each erosive rain, quantified, and analysed for NO3-N and PO4-P concentrations. In all treatments runoff had higher concentrations of NO3-N (2.20-4.83 mg L-1) than of PO4-P (0.02-0.07 mg L-1), and the eroded soil had higher content of PO4-P (5.27-18.8 mg g-1) than of NO3-N (1.30-8.51 mg g-1). The control had significantly higher losses of both NO3-N (5.4, 4.4 and 19 kg ha-1) and PO4-P (0.2, 0.1 and 0.4 kg ha-1) than the other treatments. T3 reduced soil loss, runoff and nutrient losses to nearly a 100% while T1 and T2 reduced those losses from 43 to 88%. The losses of NO3-N and PO4-P were highly correlated with the amounts of runoff and eroded soil. Nutrient losses from the applied amendments were low (5.7% maximum), but the losses in the control could indicate long-term nutrient depletion in the soil (19 and 0.4 kg ha-1 of NO3-N and PO4-P, respectively). T1-T3 did not consistently increase crop yield or biomass in all three sites, but T1 increased both crop yield and biomass. We conclude that T3 (combining crop-residue mulch with organic amendment and runoff hedges) is the best treatment for steep slope areas but, the pigeon-pea hedges need to be managed for higher maize yield. T1 (combining organic amendment with soil surfactant) could be a better choice for flatter areas with deeper soils. PMID:26230549

Effect of Integrated Water-Nutrient Management Strategies on Soil Erosion Mediated Nutrient Loss and Crop Productivity in Cabo Verde Drylands.

PubMed

Baptista, Isaurinda; Ritsema, Coen; Geissen, Violette

2015-01-01

Soil erosion, runoff and related nutrient losses are a big risk for soil fertility in Cabo Verde drylands. In 2012, field trials were conducted in two agro-ecological zones to evaluate the effects of selected techniques of soil-water management combined with organic amendments (T1: compost/manure + soil surfactant; T2: compost/animal or green manure + pigeon-pea hedges + soil surfactant; T3: compost/animal or green manure + mulch + pigeon-pea hedges) on nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) losses in eroded soil and runoff and on crop yields. Three treatments and one control (traditional practice) were tested in field plots at three sites with a local maize variety and two types of beans. Runoff and eroded soil were collected after each erosive rain, quantified, and analysed for NO3-N and PO4-P concentrations. In all treatments runoff had higher concentrations of NO3-N (2.20-4.83 mg L-1) than of PO4-P (0.02-0.07 mg L-1), and the eroded soil had higher content of PO4-P (5.27-18.8 mg g-1) than of NO3-N (1.30-8.51 mg g-1). The control had significantly higher losses of both NO3-N (5.4, 4.4 and 19 kg ha-1) and PO4-P (0.2, 0.1 and 0.4 kg ha-1) than the other treatments. T3 reduced soil loss, runoff and nutrient losses to nearly a 100% while T1 and T2 reduced those losses from 43 to 88%. The losses of NO3-N and PO4-P were highly correlated with the amounts of runoff and eroded soil. Nutrient losses from the applied amendments were low (5.7% maximum), but the losses in the control could indicate long-term nutrient depletion in the soil (19 and 0.4 kg ha-1 of NO3-N and PO4-P, respectively). T1-T3 did not consistently increase crop yield or biomass in all three sites, but T1 increased both crop yield and biomass. We conclude that T3 (combining crop-residue mulch with organic amendment and runoff hedges) is the best treatment for steep slope areas but, the pigeon-pea hedges need to be managed for higher maize yield. T1 (combining organic amendment with soil surfactant) could be a better choice for flatter areas with deeper soils.

Reviews and syntheses: Soil N2O and NO emissions from land use and land-use change in the tropics and subtropics: a meta-analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Lent, J.; Hergoualc'h, K.; Verchot, L. V.

2015-12-01

Deforestation and forest degradation in the tropics may substantially alter soil N-oxide emissions. It is particularly relevant to accurately quantify those changes to properly account for them in a REDD+ climate change mitigation scheme that provides financial incentives to reduce the emissions. With this study we provide updated land use (LU)-based emission rates (104 studies, 392 N2O and 111 NO case studies), we determine the trend and magnitude of flux changes with land-use change (LUC) using a meta-analysis approach (44 studies, 135 N2O and 37 NO cases) and evaluate biophysical drivers of N2O and NO emissions and emission changes for the tropics. The average N2O and NO emissions in intact upland tropical forest amounted to 2.0 ± 0.2 (n = 90) and 1.7 ± 0.5 (n = 36) kg N ha-1 yr-1, respectively. In agricultural soils annual N2O emissions were exponentially related to N fertilization rates and average water-filled pore space (WFPS) whereas in non-agricultural sites a Gaussian response to WFPS fit better with the observed NO and N2O emissions. The sum of soil N2O and NO fluxes and the ratio of N2O to NO increased exponentially and significantly with increasing nitrogen availability (expressed as NO3- / [NO3-+NH4+]) and WFPS, respectively; following the conceptual Hole-In-the-Pipe model. Nitrous and nitric oxide fluxes did not increase significantly overall as a result of LUC (Hedges's d of 0.11 ± 0.11 and 0.16 ± 0.19, respectively), however individual LUC trajectories or practices did. Nitrous oxide fluxes increased significantly after intact upland forest conversion to croplands (Hedges's d = 0.78 ± 0.24) and NO increased significantly following the conversion of low forest cover (secondary forest younger than 30 years, woodlands, shrublands) (Hedges's d of 0.44 ± 0.13). Forest conversion to fertilized systems significantly and highly raised both N2O and NO emission rates (Hedges's d of 1.03 ± 0.23 and 0.52 ± 0.09, respectively). Changes in nitrogen availability and WFPS were the main factors explaining changes in N2O emissions following LUC, therefore it is important that experimental designs monitor their spatio-temporal variation. Gaps in the literature on N oxide fluxes included geographical gaps (Africa, Oceania) and LU gaps (degraded forest, wetland (notably peat) forest, oil palm plantation and soy cultivation).

Soil N2O and NO emissions from land use and land-use change in the tropics and subtropics: a meta-analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Lent, J.; Hergoualc'h, K.; Verchot, L. V.

2015-08-01

Deforestation and forest degradation in the tropics may substantially alter soil N-oxide emissions. It is particularly relevant to accurately quantify those changes to properly account for them in a REDD+ climate change mitigation scheme that provides financial incentives to reduce the emissions. With this study we provide updated land use (LU)-based emission rates (103 studies, 387 N2O and 111 NO case studies), determine the trend and magnitude of flux changes with land-use change (LUC) using a meta-analysis approach (43 studies, 132 N2O and 37 NO cases) and evaluate biophysical drivers of N2O and NO emissions and emission changes for the tropics. The average N2O and NO emissions in intact upland tropical forest amounted to 2.0 ± 0.2 (n = 88) and 1.7 ± 0.5 (n = 36) kg N ha-1 yr-1, respectively. In agricultural soils annual N2O emissions were exponentially related to N fertilization rates and average water-filled pore space (WFPS) whereas in non-agricultural sites a Gaussian response to WFPS fit better the observed NO and N2O emissions. The sum of soil N2O and NO fluxes and the ratio of N2O to NO increased exponentially and significantly with increasing nitrogen availability (expressed as NO3-/[NO3-+NH4+]) and WFPS, respectively; following the conceptual Hole-In-the-Pipe model. Nitrous and nitric oxide fluxes did not overall increase significantly as a result of LUC (Hedges's d of 0.11 ± 0.11 and 0.16 ± 0.19, respectively), however individual LUC trajectories or practices did. Nitrous oxide fluxes increased significantly after intact upland forest conversion to croplands (Hedges's d = 0.78 ± 0.24) and NO increased significantly following the conversion of low forest cover (secondary forest younger than 30 years, woodlands, shrublands) (Hedges's d of 0.44 ± 0.13). Forest conversion to fertilized systems significantly and highly raised both N2O and NO emission rates (Hedges's d of 1.03 ± 0.23 and 0.52 ± 0.09, respectively). Changes in nitrogen availability and WFPS were the main factors explaining changes in N2O emissions following LUC, therefore it is important that experimental designs monitor their spatio-temporal variation. Gaps in the literature on N oxide fluxes included geographical gaps (Africa, Oceania) and LU gaps (degraded forest, wetland (notably peat) forest, oil palm plantation and soy cultivation).

Associations between belief inflexibility and dimensions of delusions: A meta-analytic review of two approaches to assessing belief flexibility.

PubMed

Zhu, Chen; Sun, Xiaoqi; So, Suzanne Ho-Wai

2018-03-01

Belief inflexibility has been suggested to maintain delusions. Different measures of assessing belief inflexibility have been developed, and it remains unclear whether patients with delusions display belief inflexibility similarly across measures. As delusions consist of multiple dimensions, the aim of this meta-analytic review was to examine how belief inflexibility is related to different aspects of delusions (conviction, distress, and preoccupation) and to compare these associations between interview-based and task-based measures of belief inflexibility. We conducted a systematic database search (PsycINFO, PsycARTICLES, PubMed, and MEDLINE) and identified relevant articles using the following search items: belief*, delusion*, or overvalued idea*; psychosis or schizo*; flexib*, inflexib*, change, revision, or update. Meta-analyses were conducted for each dimension of delusions and were reported according to the PRISMA guidelines. A total of 16 studies, with a total sample of 1,065, were included in the analysis. Belief inflexibility was associated with global severity of delusions (Hedges' g = 0.452, p < .001). Specifically, all dimensions of delusions were significantly associated with belief inflexibility (conviction: Hedges' g = 0.678, p < .001; preoccupation: Hedges' g = 0.274, p = .002; distress: Hedges' g = 0.200, p = .025). There was no significant heterogeneity across studies for each dimension. Preliminary subgroup analysis did not find any significant between-measure differences in the relationship between belief inflexibility and overall severity of delusions. Belief inflexibility, across measures, was robustly associated with delusions, with a particularly strong association for delusional conviction. Our results carried implications for process-based interventions for delusions. Positive clinical implications Belief inflexibility is consistently associated with the maintenance of delusions. Assessing belief inflexibility in routine clinical practice will inform psychological interventions for patients with persistent delusions. Interview- and task-based measures of belief inflexibility may be used complementarily to facilitate our understanding of this reasoning bias. Aetiological factors may be more closely associated with some aspects of delusions than the others. In line with a multidimensional view of delusions, interventions targeting different dimensions of delusions may have different therapeutic emphases. Limitations The current review focused on three core dimensions of delusions only (conviction, preoccupation, distress). Other ways of dissecting delusions are possible. Comparisons between the two measures of belief inflexibility may benefit from further research. © 2017 The British Psychological Society.

Belief Propagation Algorithm for Portfolio Optimization Problems

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

The typical behavior of optimal solutions to portfolio optimization problems with absolute deviation and expected shortfall models using replica analysis was pioneeringly estimated by S. Ciliberti et al. [Eur. Phys. B. 57, 175 (2007)]; however, they have not yet developed an approximate derivation method for finding the optimal portfolio with respect to a given return set. In this study, an approximation algorithm based on belief propagation for the portfolio optimization problem is presented using the Bethe free energy formalism, and the consistency of the numerical experimental results of the proposed algorithm with those of replica analysis is confirmed. Furthermore, the conjecture of H. Konno and H. Yamazaki, that the optimal solutions with the absolute deviation model and with the mean-variance model have the same typical behavior, is verified using replica analysis and the belief propagation algorithm. PMID:26305462

Belief Propagation Algorithm for Portfolio Optimization Problems.

PubMed

Shinzato, Takashi; Yasuda, Muneki

2015-01-01

The typical behavior of optimal solutions to portfolio optimization problems with absolute deviation and expected shortfall models using replica analysis was pioneeringly estimated by S. Ciliberti et al. [Eur. Phys. B. 57, 175 (2007)]; however, they have not yet developed an approximate derivation method for finding the optimal portfolio with respect to a given return set. In this study, an approximation algorithm based on belief propagation for the portfolio optimization problem is presented using the Bethe free energy formalism, and the consistency of the numerical experimental results of the proposed algorithm with those of replica analysis is confirmed. Furthermore, the conjecture of H. Konno and H. Yamazaki, that the optimal solutions with the absolute deviation model and with the mean-variance model have the same typical behavior, is verified using replica analysis and the belief propagation algorithm.

Solution for a bipartite Euclidean traveling-salesman problem in one dimension

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caracciolo, Sergio; Di Gioacchino, Andrea; Gherardi, Marco; Malatesta, Enrico M.

2018-05-01

The traveling-salesman problem is one of the most studied combinatorial optimization problems, because of the simplicity in its statement and the difficulty in its solution. We characterize the optimal cycle for every convex and increasing cost function when the points are thrown independently and with an identical probability distribution in a compact interval. We compute the average optimal cost for every number of points when the distance function is the square of the Euclidean distance. We also show that the average optimal cost is not a self-averaging quantity by explicitly computing the variance of its distribution in the thermodynamic limit. Moreover, we prove that the cost of the optimal cycle is not smaller than twice the cost of the optimal assignment of the same set of points. Interestingly, this bound is saturated in the thermodynamic limit.

Solution for a bipartite Euclidean traveling-salesman problem in one dimension.

PubMed

Caracciolo, Sergio; Di Gioacchino, Andrea; Gherardi, Marco; Malatesta, Enrico M

2018-05-01

The traveling-salesman problem is one of the most studied combinatorial optimization problems, because of the simplicity in its statement and the difficulty in its solution. We characterize the optimal cycle for every convex and increasing cost function when the points are thrown independently and with an identical probability distribution in a compact interval. We compute the average optimal cost for every number of points when the distance function is the square of the Euclidean distance. We also show that the average optimal cost is not a self-averaging quantity by explicitly computing the variance of its distribution in the thermodynamic limit. Moreover, we prove that the cost of the optimal cycle is not smaller than twice the cost of the optimal assignment of the same set of points. Interestingly, this bound is saturated in the thermodynamic limit.

The Glass is Half Full and Half Empty: A population-representative twin study testing if Optimism and Pessimism are distinct systems

PubMed Central

Bates, Timothy C.

2015-01-01

Optimism and pessimism are associated with important outcomes including health and depression. Yet it is unclear if these apparent polar opposites form a single dimension or reflect two distinct systems. The extent to which personality accounts for differences in optimism/pessimism is also controversial. Here, we addressed these questions in a genetically informative sample of 852 pairs of twins. Distinct genetic influences on optimism and pessimism were found. Significant family-level environment effects also emerged, accounting for much of the negative relationship between optimism and pessimism, as well as a link to neuroticism. A general positive genetics factor exerted significant links among both personality and life-orientation traits. Both optimism bias and pessimism also showed genetic variance distinct from all effects of personality, and from each other. PMID:26561494

Modeling additive and non-additive effects in a hybrid population using genome-wide genotyping: prediction accuracy implications

PubMed Central

Bouvet, J-M; Makouanzi, G; Cros, D; Vigneron, Ph

2016-01-01

Hybrids are broadly used in plant breeding and accurate estimation of variance components is crucial for optimizing genetic gain. Genome-wide information may be used to explore models designed to assess the extent of additive and non-additive variance and test their prediction accuracy for the genomic selection. Ten linear mixed models, involving pedigree- and marker-based relationship matrices among parents, were developed to estimate additive (A), dominance (D) and epistatic (AA, AD and DD) effects. Five complementary models, involving the gametic phase to estimate marker-based relationships among hybrid progenies, were developed to assess the same effects. The models were compared using tree height and 3303 single-nucleotide polymorphism markers from 1130 cloned individuals obtained via controlled crosses of 13 Eucalyptus urophylla females with 9 Eucalyptus grandis males. Akaike information criterion (AIC), variance ratios, asymptotic correlation matrices of estimates, goodness-of-fit, prediction accuracy and mean square error (MSE) were used for the comparisons. The variance components and variance ratios differed according to the model. Models with a parent marker-based relationship matrix performed better than those that were pedigree-based, that is, an absence of singularities, lower AIC, higher goodness-of-fit and accuracy and smaller MSE. However, AD and DD variances were estimated with high s.es. Using the same criteria, progeny gametic phase-based models performed better in fitting the observations and predicting genetic values. However, DD variance could not be separated from the dominance variance and null estimates were obtained for AA and AD effects. This study highlighted the advantages of progeny models using genome-wide information. PMID:26328760

Four-body trajectory optimization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pu, C. L.; Edelbaum, T. N.

1974-01-01

A comprehensive optimization program has been developed for computing fuel-optimal trajectories between the earth and a point in the sun-earth-moon system. It presents methods for generating fuel optimal two-impulse trajectories which may originate at the earth or a point in space and fuel optimal three-impulse trajectories between two points in space. The extrapolation of the state vector and the computation of the state transition matrix are accomplished by the Stumpff-Weiss method. The cost and constraint gradients are computed analytically in terms of the terminal state and the state transition matrix. The 4-body Lambert problem is solved by using the Newton-Raphson method. An accelerated gradient projection method is used to optimize a 2-impulse trajectory with terminal constraint. The Davidon's Variance Method is used both in the accelerated gradient projection method and the outer loop of a 3-impulse trajectory optimization problem.

The effect of dropout on the efficiency of D-optimal designs of linear mixed models.

PubMed

Ortega-Azurduy, S A; Tan, F E S; Berger, M P F

2008-06-30

Dropout is often encountered in longitudinal data. Optimal designs will usually not remain optimal in the presence of dropout. In this paper, we study D-optimal designs for linear mixed models where dropout is encountered. Moreover, we estimate the efficiency loss in cases where a D-optimal design for complete data is chosen instead of that for data with dropout. Two types of monotonically decreasing response probability functions are investigated to describe dropout. Our results show that the location of D-optimal design points for the dropout case will shift with respect to that for the complete and uncorrelated data case. Owing to this shift, the information collected at the D-optimal design points for the complete data case does not correspond to the smallest variance. We show that the size of the displacement of the time points depends on the linear mixed model and that the efficiency loss is moderate.