Science.gov

Sample records for vector wind change

  1. Analysis of vector wind change with respect to time for Cape Kennedy, Florida

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Adelfang, S. I.

    1978-01-01

    Multivariate analysis was used to determine the joint distribution of the four variables represented by the components of the wind vector at an initial time and after a specified elapsed time is hypothesized to be quadravariate normal; the fourteen statistics of this distribution, calculated from 15 years of twice-daily rawinsonde data are presented by monthly reference periods for each month from 0 to 27 km. The hypotheses that the wind component changes with respect to time is univariate normal, that the joint distribution of wind component change with respect to time is univariate normal, that the joint distribution of wind component changes is bivariate normal, and that the modulus of vector wind change is Rayleigh are tested by comparison with observed distributions. Statistics of the conditional bivariate normal distributions of vector wind at a future time given the vector wind at an initial time are derived. Wind changes over time periods from 1 to 5 hours, calculated from Jimsphere data, are presented. Extension of the theoretical prediction (based on rawinsonde data) of wind component change standard deviation to time periods of 1 to 5 hours falls (with a few exceptions) within the 95 percentile confidence band of the population estimate obtained from the Jimsphere sample data. The joint distributions of wind change components, conditional wind components, and 1 km vector wind shear change components are illustrated by probability ellipses at the 95 percentile level.

  2. Analysis of vector wind change with respect to time for Cape Kennedy, Florida: Wind aloft profile change vs. time, phase 1

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Adelfang, S. I.

    1977-01-01

    Wind vector change with respect to time at Cape Kennedy, Florida, is examined according to the theory of multivariate normality. The joint distribution of the four variables represented by the components of the wind vector at an initial time and after a specified elapsed time is hypothesized to be quadravariate normal; the fourteen statistics of this distribution, calculated from fifteen years of twice daily Rawinsonde data are presented by monthly reference periods for each month from 0 to 27 km. The hypotheses that the wind component changes with respect to time is univariate normal, the joint distribution of wind component changes is bivariate normal, and the modulus of vector wind change is Rayleigh, has been tested by comparison with observed distributions. Statistics of the conditional bivariate normal distributions of vector wind at a future time given the vector wind at an initial time are derived. Wind changes over time periods from one to five hours, calculated from Jimsphere data, are presented.

  3. Analysis of vector wind change with respect to time for Vandenberg Air Force Base, California

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Adelfang, S. I.

    1978-01-01

    A statistical analysis of the temporal variability of wind vectors at 1 km altitude intervals from 0 to 27 km altitude taken from a 10-year data sample of twice-daily rawinsode wind measurements over Vandenberg Air Force Base, California is presented.

  4. Vector wind profile gust model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Adelfang, S. I.

    1979-01-01

    Work towards establishing a vector wind profile gust model for the Space Transportation System flight operations and trade studies is reported. To date, all the statistical and computational techniques required were established and partially implemented. An analysis of wind profile gust at Cape Kennedy within the theoretical framework is presented. The variability of theoretical and observed gust magnitude with filter type, altitude, and season is described. Various examples are presented which illustrate agreement between theoretical and observed gust percentiles. The preliminary analysis of the gust data indicates a strong variability with altitude, season, and wavelength regime. An extension of the analyses to include conditional distributions of gust magnitude given gust length, distributions of gust modulus, and phase differences between gust components has begun.

  5. Vector wind profile gust model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Adelfang, S. I.

    1981-01-01

    To enable development of a vector wind gust model suitable for orbital flight test operations and trade studies, hypotheses concerning the distributions of gust component variables were verified. Methods for verification of hypotheses that observed gust variables, including gust component magnitude, gust length, u range, and L range, are gamma distributed and presented. Observed gust modulus has been drawn from a bivariate gamma distribution that can be approximated with a Weibull distribution. Zonal and meridional gust components are bivariate gamma distributed. An analytical method for testing for bivariate gamma distributed variables is presented. Two distributions for gust modulus are described and the results of extensive hypothesis testing of one of the distributions are presented. The validity of the gamma distribution for representation of gust component variables is established.

  6. The change in wind vector and dust storm in the Middle East in last 32 years and their correlations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jin, Q.; Yang, Z.

    2011-12-01

    [1] Winds play an important role in dust aerosols emission, transport, and deposition. Using NCEP reanalysis2 data, the changes in wind direction and speed during 1948 and 2010 were analyzed over the Middle East (the Gulf of Omen and Eastern Saudi Arabia abbreviated as R1). Wind patterns from R1 were compared with those in South Asia Monsoon Area (R2), East China (R3), and East China Sea (R4). The Weather Research and Forecasting model with online chemistry (WRF-Chem) was used to study the effects of winds change on dust emissions over the period from 1979 to 2010. Modifications to soil types and land cover types were implemented to the default WRF-Chem MOSAIC dust scheme to ensure realistic simulations of dust emissions. In all the four regions, the yearly average wind speed decreased. In R1 and R3, winds greater than 2.5 m/s exhibited a decreasing trend throughout the year; while in R2 and R4, the decreasing trend was found only in spring and summer. The model simulations were compared with available observations including satellite data (e.g. AERONET and Calipso) and continual improvements are being made to revise the dust emission scheme within WRF-Chem.

  7. Vector wind profile gust model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Adelfang, S. I.

    1983-01-01

    A five parameter gamma distribution (BGD) having two shape parameters, two location parameters, and a correlation parameter is investigated. This general BGD is expressed as a double series and as a single series of the modified bessel function, and reduces to the known special case for equal shape parameters. Practical functions for computer evaluations for the general BGD and for special cases are presented. Applications are to be bound in reliability theory, signal noise, and meteorology. Applications to wind gust modeling for the ascent flight of the space shuttle are illustrated.

  8. SSM/I and ECMWF Wind Vector Comparison

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wentz, Frank J.; Ashcroft, Peter D.

    1996-01-01

    Wentz was the first to convincingly show that satellite microwave radiometers have the potential to measure the oceanic wind vector. The most compelling evidence for this conclusion was the monthly wind vector maps derived solely from a statistical analysis of Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) observations. In a qualitative sense, these maps clearly showed the general circulation over the world's oceans. In this report we take a closer look at the SSM/I monthly wind vector maps and compare them to European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) wind fields. This investigation leads both to an empirical comparison of SSM/I calculated wind vectors with ECMWF wind vectors, and to an examination of possible reasons that the SSM/I calculated wind vector direction would be inherently more reliable at some locations than others.

  9. Wind Streak Changes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2004-01-01

    2 September 2004 This pair of Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) Mars Orbiter Camera (MOC) images shows changes in dark wind streak patterns that occurred between 5 April 1999 (image M00-00534) and 17 August 2004 (image R20-00901). Unlike the spaghetti-like streak patterns made by dust devils, these streaks all begin on their upwind ends as tapered forms that fan outward in the downwind direction, and they all indicate winds that blew from the same direction. In both cases, winds blew from the southeast (lower right) toward the northwest (upper left). These streaks and the small pedestal craters found among them occur in the Memnonia region of Mars near 5.9oS, 162.2oW. The 400 meter scale bar is about 437 yards long. Sunlight illuminates each scene from the upper left.

  10. Winds of change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cartwright, Jon

    2014-06-01

    The future of the wind industry is looking brighter thanks to a decades-old laser technology. Jon Cartwright explains how laser anemometry could cut the cost of wind energy and boost its share of the world's energy market.

  11. An improved hurricane wind vector retrieval algorithm using SeaWinds scatterometer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Laupattarakasem, Peth

    Over the last three decades, microwave remote sensing has played a significant role in ocean surface wind measurement, and several scatterometer missions have flown in space since early 1990's. Although they have been extremely successful for measuring ocean surface winds with high accuracy for the vast majority of marine weather conditions, unfortunately, the conventional scatterometer cannot measure extreme winds condition such as hurricane. The SeaWinds scatterometer, onboard the QuikSCAT satellite is NASA's only operating scatterometer at present. Like its predecessors, it measures global ocean vector winds; however, for a number of reasons, the quality of the measurements in hurricanes are significantly degraded. The most pressing issues are associated with the presence of precipitation and Ku-band saturation effects, especially in extreme wind speed regime such as tropical cyclones (hurricanes and typhoons). Under this dissertation, an improved hurricane ocean vector wind retrieval approach, named as Q-Winds, was developed using existing SeaWinds scatterometer data. This unique data processing algorithm uses combined SeaWinds active and passive measurements to extend the use of SeaWinds for tropical cyclones up to approximately 50 m/s (Hurricane Category-3). Results show that Q-Winds wind speeds are consistently superior to the standard SeaWinds Project Level 2B wind speeds for hurricane wind speed measurement, and also Q-Winds provides more reliable rain flagging algorithm for quality assurance purposes. By comparing to H*Wind, Q-Winds achieves ˜9% of error, while L2B-12.5km exhibits wind speed saturation at ˜30 m/s with error of ˜31% for high wind speed (>40 m/s).

  12. Rapid Temporal Changes of Midtropospheric Winds

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Merceret, Francis J.

    1997-01-01

    The statistical distribution of the magnitude of the vector wind change over 0.25-, 1-, 2-. and 4-h periods based on data from October 1995 through March 1996 over central Florida is presented. The wind changes at altitudes from 6 to 17 km were measured using the Kennedy Space Center 50-MHz Doppler radar wind profiler. Quality controlled profiles were produced every 5 min for 112 gates, each representing 150 m in altitude. Gates 28 through 100 were selected for analysis because of their significance to ascending space launch vehicles. The distribution was found to be lognormal. The parameters of the lognormal distribution depend systematically on the time interval. This dependence is consistent with the behavior of structure functions in the f(exp 5/3) spectral regime. There is a small difference between the 1995 data and the 1996 data, which may represent a weak seasonal effect.

  13. Math: Winds of Change.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Niess, Margaret L.

    1992-01-01

    Provides methods for cooperative, student investigation of weather data similar to methods currently used by atmospheric scientists. Utilizes spreadsheets to focus on the analysis and interpretation of wind frequency data for a small town in Oregon. (JJK)

  14. Vector wind, horizontal divergence, wind stress and wind stress curl from SEASAT-SASS at one degree resolution

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pierson, W. J., Jr.; Sylvester, W. B.; Salfi, R. E.

    1984-01-01

    Conventional data obtained in 1983 are contrasted with SEASAT-A scatterometer and scanning multichannel microwave radiometer (SMMR) data to show how observations at a single station can be extended to an area of about 150,000 square km by means of remotely sensed data obtained in nine minutes. Superobservations at a one degree resolution for the vector winds were estimated along with their standard deviations. From these superobservations, the horizontal divergence, vector wind stress, and the curl of the wind stress can be found. Weather forecasting theory is discussed and meteorological charts of the North Pacific Ocean are presented. Synoptic meteorology as a technique is examined.

  15. Designing Scatterometer Constellations for Sampling Global Ocean Vector Winds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rodriguez, E.; Chelton, D. B.; Stoffelen, A.; Schlax, M.

    2012-12-01

    The rapid temporal variations in ocean vector winds make it impossible to obtain synoptic global snapshots of winds and wind stress from a single spaceborne sensor. Even when multiple sensors are present, the peculiarities of the resulting space-time sampling pattern require that significant smoothing in space and time be performed to limit spatially and temporally inhomogeneous error characteristics in the merged data. Based on the collected common experience in its member states, the World Meteorological Organization collects requirements for spatio-temporal sampling in meteorological applications such as global and regional Numerical Weather Prediction, nowcasting, and climate. An additional concern, when constructing data sets from sun-synchronous missions, is that undersampling of diurnal and sub-diurnal variability may result in aliasing of the climate data record. Indeed, examination of climatologies constructed from different satellite missions, such as NASA's QuikSCAT and EUMETSAT's ASCAT scatterometers, show systematic differences that cannot be explained as being due solely to unresolved incoherent diurnal and sub-diurnal variability. Some of these differences, especially in the tropics, are probably explained by systematic diurnal and sub-diurnal variations. Other differences may be due to the difficulty of cross-calibrating sun-synchronous satellites with different local times. Forthcoming satellite missions may offer the possibility of overcoming or mitigating the space-time sampling and calibration challenges using multiple coordinated platforms. In the next decade, there is an expectation that ocean vector winds will be measured simultaneously by multiple satellites from the European community, India, China, and the United States. The coordination and suitable merging of the data from these satellites to produce a climate data record will be a challenge to the ocean vector winds community. In this presentation, we use climatologies constructed from

  16. 10 Years of Height Resolved, Cloud-Track, Vector Winds from MISR

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garay, M. J.; Mueller, K. J.; Moroney, C. M.; Jovanovic, V.; Wu, D. L.; Diner, D. J.

    2009-12-01

    By utilizing multiple camera views and fast image matching algorithms to identify common features and determine feature motion, the MISR instrument on NASA’s Terra satellite has now collected nearly 10 years of height-resolved, cloud-track, vector winds using a single, globally consistent algorithm. The MISR cloud-track winds are reported globally on mesoscale domains of 70.4 km × 70.4 km and referenced to stereoscopically derived heights above the earth ellipsoid, which have a nominal vertical resolution of approximately 500 m. Importantly, from the standpoint of climate research, the stereo height assignment and wind retrieval are largely insensitive to instrument calibration changes because the pattern matcher relies only on relative brightness values, rather than the absolute magnitude of the brightness. We will describe comparisons with other wind datasets, including geostationary cloud drift winds, scatterometer surface winds, and reanalysis model winds, that demonstrate the quality of the MISR winds. We will also show the coverage and resolution advantages that MISR provides relative to these other datasets. Additionally, because the global winds are driven primarily by the global (im)balance of heating, monitoring variations in the winds over 10 years promises to yield important insights into the processes related to the hydrologic cycle and transport of heat and water vapor, such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

  17. Study of wind change for the development of loads reduction techniques for the space shuttle

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Adelfang, S. I.

    1987-01-01

    Wind change statistics are analyzed for Vandenberg AFB, California (VAFB) and Kennedy Space Center, Florida (KSC). Means and standard deviations of wind component change and vector wind change modulus within 3-9 and 9-16 km altitude bands are tabulated. The contribution to 3.5 hr wind component change by wind perturbations in various wavelength bands is evaluated. Probability distributions of maximum 3.5 hr wind change in an altitude band are presented and a model for wind change at a specified altitude is tested with data derived from six data bases from VAFB and Santa Monica, California.

  18. Triboelectric nanogenerator for harvesting wind energy and as self-powered wind vector sensor system.

    PubMed

    Yang, Ya; Zhu, Guang; Zhang, Hulin; Chen, Jun; Zhong, Xiandai; Lin, Zong-Hong; Su, Yuanjie; Bai, Peng; Wen, Xiaonan; Wang, Zhong Lin

    2013-10-22

    We report a triboelectric nanogenerator (TENG) that plays dual roles as a sustainable power source by harvesting wind energy and as a self-powered wind vector sensor system for wind speed and direction detection. By utilizing the wind-induced resonance vibration of a fluorinated ethylene-propylene film between two aluminum foils, the integrated TENGs with dimensions of 2.5 cm × 2.5 cm × 22 cm deliver an output voltage up to 100 V, an output current of 1.6 μA, and a corresponding output power of 0.16 mW under an external load of 100 MΩ, which can be used to directly light up tens of commercial light-emitting diodes. Furthermore, a self-powered wind vector sensor system has been developed based on the rationally designed TENGs, which is capable of detecting the wind direction and speed with a sensitivity of 0.09 μA/(m/s). This work greatly expands the applicability of TENGs as power sources for self-sustained electronics and also self-powered sensor systems for ambient wind detection.

  19. Impact of Scatterometer Ocean Wind Vector Data on NOAA Operations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jelenak, Z.; Chang, P.; Brennan, M. J.; Sienkiewicz, J. M.

    2015-12-01

    Near real-time measurements of ocean surface vector winds (OSVW), including both wind speed and direction from non-NOAA satellites, are being widely used in critical operational NOAA forecasting and warning activities. The scatterometer wind data data have had major operational impact in: a) determining wind warning areas for mid-latitude systems (gale, storm,hurricane force); b) determining tropical cyclone 34-knot and 50-knot wind radii. c) tracking the center location of tropical cyclones, including the initial identification of their formation. d) identifying and warning of extreme gap and jet wind events at all latitudes. e) identifying the current location of frontal systems and high and low pressure centers. f) improving coastal surf and swell forecasts Much has been learned about the importance and utility of satellite OSVW data in operational weather forecasting and warning by exploiting OSVW research satellites in near real-time. Since December 1999 when first data from QuikSCAT scatterometer became available in near real time NOAA operations have been benefiting from ASCAT scatterometer observations on MetOp-A and B, Indian OSCAT scatterometer on OceanSat-3 and lately NASA's RapidScat mission on International Space Station. With oceans comprising over 70 percent of the earth's surface, the impacts of these data have been tremendous in serving society's needs for weather and water information and in supporting the nation's commerce with information for safe, efficient, and environmentally sound transportation and coastal preparedness. The satellite OSVW experience that has been gained over the past decade by users in the operational weather community allows for realistic operational OSVW requirements to be properly stated for future missions. Successful model of transitioning research data into operation implemented by Ocean Winds Team in NOAA's NESDIS/STAR office and subsequent data impacts will be presented and discussed.

  20. The winds of change.

    PubMed

    Roski, R A

    1995-01-01

    Redirecting physician incentives, providing universal coverage, improving access to meaningful information, and providing innovation are the key components to solving this crisis. Those changes must focus on true competition and innovative ideas, which we must provide. In the past, the innovation in health care has come from physicians, and physicians must provide it in the future. Now is the time for action. Once again, we can use the words of Theodor Geisel to inspire us: So ... Be your name Buxbaum or Bixby or Bray or Mordaci Ali Van Allen O'Shea, You're off to great places! Today is your day! Your mountain is waiting! So ... get on your way! No one could put it more clearly or succinctly than Dr. Seuss. Take his words to heart. The challenge lies before us, and the opportunities are endless. Just as Sidney Garfield revolutionized health care delivery more than 60 years ago, now is the time to introduce revolutionary changes of our own. Do not sit idly by while our health care system further deteriorates. Allow yourselves to be the innovative leaders that will give this country a new and better system of health care delivery. So remember, your mountain is waiting! Get on your way!

  1. Numerical study of 1-D, 3-vector component, thermally-conductive MHD solar wind

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Han, S.; Wu, S. T.; Dryer, M.

    1993-01-01

    In the present study, transient, 1-dimensional, 3-vector component MHD equations are used to simulate steady and unsteady, thermally conductive MHD solar wind expansions between the solar surface and 1 AU (astronomical unit). A variant of SIMPLE numerical method was used to integrate the equations. Steady state solar wind properties exhibit qualitatively similar behavior with the known Weber-Davies Solutions. Generation of Alfven shock, in addition to the slow and fast MHD shocks, was attempted by the boundary perturbations at the solar surface. Property changes through the disturbance were positively correlated with the fast and slow MHD shocks. Alfven shock was, however, not present in the present simulations.

  2. Ocean Surface Vector Wind: Research Challenges and Operational Opportunities

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Halpern, David

    2012-01-01

    The atmosphere and ocean are joined together over seventy percent of Earth, with ocean surface vector wind (OSVW) stress one of the linkages. Satellite OSVW measurements provide estimates of wind divergence at the bottom of the atmosphere and wind stress curl at the top of the ocean; both variables are critical for weather and climate applications. As is common with satellite measurements, a multitude of OSVW data products exist for each currently operating satellite instrument. In 2012 the Joint Technical Commission on Oceanography and Marine Meteorology (JCOMM) launched an initiative to coordinate production of OSVW data products to maximize the impact and benefit of existing and future OSVW measurements in atmospheric and oceanic applications. This paper describes meteorological and oceanographic requirements for OSVW data products; provides an inventory of unique data products to illustrate that the challenge is not the production of individual data products, but the generation of harmonized datasets for analysis and synthesis of the ensemble of data products; and outlines a vision for JCOMM, in partnership with other international groups, to assemble an international network to share ideas, data, tools, strategies, and deliverables to improve utilization of satellite OSVW data products for research and operational applications.

  3. Measuring the 3-D wind vector with a weight-shift microlight aircraft

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Metzger, S.; Junkermann, W.; Butterbach-Bahl, K.; Schmid, H. P.; Foken, T.

    2011-02-01

    This study investigates whether the 3-D wind vector can be measured reliably from a highly transportable and low-cost weight-shift microlight aircraft. Therefore we draw up a transferable procedure to accommodate flow distortion originating from the aircraft body and -wing. This procedure consists of the analysis of aircraft dynamics and seven successive calibration steps. For our aircraft the horizontal wind components receive their greatest single amendment (14%, relative to the initial uncertainty) from the correction of flow distortion magnitude in the dynamic pressure computation. Conversely the vertical wind component is most of all improved (31%) by subsequent steps considering the 3-D flow distortion distribution in the flow angle computations. Therein the influences of the aircraft's aeroelastic wing (53%), as well as sudden changes in wing loading (16%) are considered by using the measured lift coefficient as explanatory variable. Three independent lines of analysis are used to evaluate the quality of the wind measurement: (a) A wind tunnel study in combination with the propagation of sensor uncertainties defines the systems input uncertainty to ≈0.6 m s-1 at the extremes of a 95% confidence interval. (b) During severe vertical flight manoeuvres the deviation range of the vertical wind component does not exceed 0.3 m s-1. (c) The comparison with ground based wind measurements yields an overall operational uncertainty (root mean square deviation) of ≈0.4 m s-1 for the horizontal and ≍0.3 m s-1 for the vertical wind components. No conclusive dependence of the uncertainty on the wind magnitude (<8 m s-1) or true airspeed (ranging from 23-30 m s-1) is found. Hence our analysis provides the necessary basis to study the wind measurement precision and spectral quality, which is prerequisite for reliable eddy-covariance flux measurements.

  4. Measuring the 3-D wind vector with a weight-shift microlight aircraft

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Metzger, S.; Junkermann, W.; Butterbach-Bahl, K.; Schmid, H. P.; Foken, T.

    2011-07-01

    This study investigates whether the 3-D wind vector can be measured reliably from a highly transportable and low-cost weight-shift microlight aircraft. Therefore we draw up a transferable procedure to accommodate flow distortion originating from the aircraft body and -wing. This procedure consists of the analysis of aircraft dynamics and seven successive calibration steps. For our aircraft the horizontal wind components receive their greatest single amendment (14 %, relative to the initial uncertainty) from the correction of flow distortion magnitude in the dynamic pressure computation. Conversely the vertical wind component is most of all improved (31 %) by subsequent steps considering the 3-D flow distortion distribution in the flow angle computations. Therein the influences of the aircraft's trim (53 %), as well as changes in the aircraft lift (16 %) are considered by using the measured lift coefficient as explanatory variable. Three independent lines of analysis are used to evaluate the quality of the wind measurement: (a) A wind tunnel study in combination with the propagation of sensor uncertainties defines the systems input uncertainty to ≈0.6 m s-1 at the extremes of a 95 % confidence interval. (b) During severe vertical flight manoeuvres the deviation range of the vertical wind component does not exceed 0.3 m s-1. (c) The comparison with ground based wind measurements yields an overall operational uncertainty (root mean square error) of ≈0.4 m s-1 for the horizontal and ≈0.3 m s-1 for the vertical wind components. No conclusive dependence of the uncertainty on the wind magnitude (<8 m s-1) or true airspeed (ranging from 23-30 m s-1) is found. Hence our analysis provides the necessary basis to study the wind measurement precision and spectral quality, which is prerequisite for reliable Eddy-Covariance flux measurements.

  5. Measurements of Seasonal Changes in Saturn's Zonal Wind and Vertical Wind Shear between 2004 and 2016 from Cassini ISS Images

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blalock, John J.; Sayanagi, Kunio M.; Ingersoll, Andrew P.; Dyudina, Ulyana A.; Ewald, Shawn P.

    2016-10-01

    We present updated zonal wind measurements of Saturn using Cassini ISS images between 2004 and 2016. In addition, we present measurements of the vertical wind shear between the cloud levels sensed in the near-infrared continuum band at 750 nm (CB2 filter) and the methane bands at 727 and 889 nm (MT2 and MT3 filters). We previously reported that there may be small seasonal changes in Saturn's zonal wind profile but it was inconclusive due to measurement uncertainties. In our previous reports, we used the zonal standard deviation of the wind vectors as a proxy for the measurement uncertainty. However, zonal standard deviation contains contributions from both real spatial variations in the wind speed as well as uncertainties in the measurements. This raised a difficulty in distinguishing small, real changes in the wind field from the uncertainties in the measurement. We have developed a technique which isolates real spatial variations from measurement uncertainties by analyzing the correlation fields produced in the two-dimensional Correlation Imaging Velocimetry (CIV) cloud-tracking wind measurement method. In our new method, for each single wind vector measurement, we fit an ellipse to the correlation threshold contour, and define it as the uncertainty ellipse of each wind vector. The advantage of our method is that it allows quantification of the anisotropic uncertainty components of each single wind vector, i.e., using the uncertainty ellipse, we deduce the northward, southward, eastward and westward uncertainties for each wind vector from the correlation peak. Comparing the uncertainty values of each wind vector to the zonal standard deviation of all wind vectors at each latitude allows us to decouple the real spatial variations in the wind from the measurement uncertainties. Using this technique, our measurements show small seasonal variations in Saturn's zonal wind profile as well as the vertical wind shear. As a next step, we plan to apply our uncertainty

  6. Single-Vector Calibration of Wind-Tunnel Force Balances

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Parker, P. A.; DeLoach, R.

    2003-01-01

    An improved method of calibrating a wind-tunnel force balance involves the use of a unique load application system integrated with formal experimental design methodology. The Single-Vector Force Balance Calibration System (SVS) overcomes the productivity and accuracy limitations of prior calibration methods. A force balance is a complex structural spring element instrumented with strain gauges for measuring three orthogonal components of aerodynamic force (normal, axial, and side force) and three orthogonal components of aerodynamic torque (rolling, pitching, and yawing moments). Force balances remain as the state-of-the-art instrument that provide these measurements on a scale model of an aircraft during wind tunnel testing. Ideally, each electrical channel of the balance would respond only to its respective component of load, and it would have no response to other components of load. This is not entirely possible even though balance designs are optimized to minimize these undesirable interaction effects. Ultimately, a calibration experiment is performed to obtain the necessary data to generate a mathematical model and determine the force measurement accuracy. In order to set the independent variables of applied load for the calibration 24 NASA Tech Briefs, October 2003 experiment, a high-precision mechanical system is required. Manual deadweight systems have been in use at Langley Research Center (LaRC) since the 1940s. These simple methodologies produce high confidence results, but the process is mechanically complex and labor-intensive, requiring three to four weeks to complete. Over the past decade, automated balance calibration systems have been developed. In general, these systems were designed to automate the tedious manual calibration process resulting in an even more complex system which deteriorates load application quality. The current calibration approach relies on a one-factor-at-a-time (OFAT) methodology, where each independent variable is

  7. Vector control of wind turbine on the basis of the fuzzy selective neural net*

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Engel, E. A.; Kovalev, I. V.; Engel, N. E.

    2016-04-01

    An article describes vector control of wind turbine based on fuzzy selective neural net. Based on the wind turbine system’s state, the fuzzy selective neural net tracks an maximum power point under random perturbations. Numerical simulations are accomplished to clarify the applicability and advantages of the proposed vector wind turbine’s control on the basis of the fuzzy selective neuronet. The simulation results show that the proposed intelligent control of wind turbine achieves real-time control speed and competitive performance, as compared to a classical control model with PID controllers based on traditional maximum torque control strategy.

  8. A Novel Empirical Mode Decomposition With Support Vector Regression for Wind Speed Forecasting.

    PubMed

    Ren, Ye; Suganthan, Ponnuthurai Nagaratnam; Srikanth, Narasimalu

    2016-08-01

    Wind energy is a clean and an abundant renewable energy source. Accurate wind speed forecasting is essential for power dispatch planning, unit commitment decision, maintenance scheduling, and regulation. However, wind is intermittent and wind speed is difficult to predict. This brief proposes a novel wind speed forecasting method by integrating empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and support vector regression (SVR) methods. The EMD is used to decompose the wind speed time series into several intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) and a residue. Subsequently, a vector combining one historical data from each IMF and the residue is generated to train the SVR. The proposed EMD-SVR model is evaluated with a wind speed data set. The proposed EMD-SVR model outperforms several recently reported methods with respect to accuracy or computational complexity.

  9. The Dependence of Ocean Surface Emissivity on Wind Vector as Measured with TMR

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tran, N.; Vandemark, D.; Ruf, C.; Zukor, Dorothy (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    Global TMR brightness temperature observations at 18, 21, and 37 GHz have been colocated with near-simultaneous SeaWinds wind vector data as well as with a monthly SST climatological product. The combined data allow us to study the dependence of ocean surface emissivity, at each frequency, upon both wind speed and direction. Results show a clear two-branch wind speed dependence; weak and linear below 6 m/s with an abrupt increase in sensitivity above that point. Our analysis also shows that the nadir-view ocean surface emissivity depends on the angle between the wind direction and TMR's antenna polarization orientation.

  10. Effects of Climate and Climate Change on Vectors and Vector-Borne Diseases: Ticks Are Different.

    PubMed

    Ogden, Nick H; Lindsay, L Robbin

    2016-08-01

    There has been considerable debate as to whether global risk from vector-borne diseases will be impacted by climate change. This has focussed on important mosquito-borne diseases that are transmitted by the vectors from infected to uninfected humans. However, this debate has mostly ignored the biological diversity of vectors and vector-borne diseases. Here, we review how climate and climate change may impact those most divergent of arthropod disease vector groups: multivoltine insects and hard-bodied (ixodid) ticks. We contrast features of the life cycles and behaviour of these arthropods, and how weather, climate, and climate change may have very different impacts on the spatiotemporal occurrence and abundance of vectors, and the pathogens they transmit.

  11. Effects of Climate and Climate Change on Vectors and Vector-Borne Diseases: Ticks Are Different.

    PubMed

    Ogden, Nick H; Lindsay, L Robbin

    2016-08-01

    There has been considerable debate as to whether global risk from vector-borne diseases will be impacted by climate change. This has focussed on important mosquito-borne diseases that are transmitted by the vectors from infected to uninfected humans. However, this debate has mostly ignored the biological diversity of vectors and vector-borne diseases. Here, we review how climate and climate change may impact those most divergent of arthropod disease vector groups: multivoltine insects and hard-bodied (ixodid) ticks. We contrast features of the life cycles and behaviour of these arthropods, and how weather, climate, and climate change may have very different impacts on the spatiotemporal occurrence and abundance of vectors, and the pathogens they transmit. PMID:27260548

  12. Arthropods as disease vectors in a changing environment.

    PubMed

    Sutherst, R W

    1993-01-01

    Arthropod vectors need to acquire energy, moisture, hosts and shelter from their environment. Changing human populations and industrialization affect almost every aspect of the environment. In particular, the prospects of climatic warming, urbanization and vegetation changes have the potential to materially affect global patterns of vector-borne diseases. Global warming will enable the expansion of the geographical distributions of vectors. The population dynamics of vectors will change in response to extended seasons suitable for development followed by less severe winters. The incidence of epidemics is likely to change in response to an expected disproportionate increase in the frequency of extreme climatic events. The impact of such changes on each of the major vector-borne diseases is reviewed and projections are made on the likely global areas at risk from spread of disease vectors. Research needs are identified and response strategies are suggested in the context of the ever-increasing impact of human populations and industrial activity on the environment.

  13. An operational satellite scatterometer for wind vector measurements over the ocean

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Grantham, W. L.; Bracalente, E. M.; Jones, W. L.; Schrader, J. H.; Schroeder, L. C.; Mitchell, J. L.

    1975-01-01

    Performance requirements and design characteristics of a microwave scatterometer wind sensor for measuring surface winds over the oceans on a global basis are described. Scatterometer specifications are developed from user requirements of wind vector measurement range and accuracy, swath width, resolution cell size and measurement grid spacing. A detailed analysis is performed for a baseline fan-beam scatterometer design, and its performance capabilities for meeting the SeaSat-A user requirements. Various modes of operation are discussed which will allow the resolution of questions concerning the effects of sea state on the scatterometer wind sensing ability and to verify design boundaries of the instrument.

  14. Wind changes above warm Agulhas Current eddies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rouault, M.; Verley, P.; Backeberg, B.

    2016-04-01

    , change in wind speed above eddies was masked by a large-scale synoptic wind speed deceleration/acceleration affecting parts of the eddies.

  15. Plants and ventifacts delineate late Holocene wind vectors in the Coachella Valley, USA

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Griffiths, P.G.; Webb, R.H.; Fisher, M.; Muth, A.

    2009-01-01

    Strong westerly winds that emanate from San Gorgonio Pass, the lowest point between Palm Springs and Los Angeles, California, dominate aeolian transport in the Coachella Valley of the western Sonoran Desert. These winds deposit sand in coppice dunes that are critical habitat for several species, including the state and federally listed threatened species Uma inornata, a lizard. Although wind directions are generally defined in this valley, the wind field has complex interactions with local topography and becomes more variable with distance from the pass. Local, dominant wind directions are preserved by growth patterns of Larrea tridentata (creosote bush), a shrub characteristic of the hot North American deserts, and ventifacts. Exceptionally long-lived, Larrea has the potential to preserve wind direction over centuries to millennia, shaped by the abrasive pruning of windward branches and the persistent training of leeward branches. Wind direction preserved in Larrea individuals and clones was mapped at 192 locations. Compared with wind data from three weather stations, Larrea vectors effectively reflect annual prevailing winds. Ventifacts measured at 24 locations record winds 10° more westerly than Larrea and appear to reflect the direction of the most erosive winds. Based on detailed mapping of local wind directions as preserved in Larrea, only the northern half of the Mission-Morongo Creek floodplain is likely to supply sand to protected U. inornata habitat in the Willow Hole ecological reserve.

  16. Effectiveness of Changing Wind Turbine Cut-in Speed to Reduce Bat Fatalities at Wind Facilities

    SciTech Connect

    Huso, Manuela M. P.; Hayes, John P.

    2009-04-01

    This report details an experiment on the effectiveness of changing wind turbine cut-in speed on reducing bat fatality from wind turbines at the Casselman Wind Project in Somerset County, Pennsylvania.

  17. Scanning wind-vector scatterometers with two pencil beams

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kirimoto, T.; Moore, R. K.

    1984-01-01

    A scanning pencil-beam scatterometer for ocean windvector determination has potential advantages over the fan-beam systems used and proposed heretofore. The pencil beam permits use of lower transmitter power, and at the same time allows concurrent use of the reflector by a radiometer to correct for atmospheric attenuation and other radiometers for other purposes. The use of dual beams based on the same scanning reflector permits four looks at each cell on the surface, thereby improving accuracy and allowing alias removal. Simulation results for a spaceborne dual-beam scanning scatterometer with a 1-watt radiated power at an orbital altitude of 900 km is described. Two novel algorithms for removing the aliases in the windvector are described, in addition to an adaptation of the conventional maximum likelihood algorithm. The new algorithms are more effective at alias removal than the conventional one. Measurement errors for the wind speed, assuming perfect alias removal, were found to be less than 10%.

  18. Surface Wind Vector and Rain Rate Observation Capability of Future Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Miller, Timothy; Atlas, Robert; Bailey, M. C.; Black, Peter; El-Nimri, Salem; Hood, Robbie; James, Mark; Johnson, James; Jones, Linwood; Ruf, Christopher; Uhlhorn, Eric

    2009-01-01

    The Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) is the next-generation Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR), and it will offer the capability of simultaneous wide-swath observations of both extreme ocean surface wind vector and strong precipitation from either aircraft (including UAS) or satellite platforms. HIRAD will be a compact, lightweight, low-power instrument with no moving parts that will produce valid wind observations under hurricane conditions when existing microwave sensors (radiometers or scatterometers) are hindered by precipitation. The SFMR i s a proven aircraft remote sensing system for simultaneously observing extreme ocean surface wind speeds and rain rates, including those of major hurricane intensity. The proposed HIRAD instrument advances beyond the current nadir viewing SFMR to an equivalent wide-swath SFMR imager using passive microwave synthetic thinned aperture radiometer technology. The first version of the instrument will be a single polarization system for wind speed and rain rate, with a dual-polarization system to follow for wind vector capability. This sensor will operate over 4-7 GHz (C-band frequencies) where the required tropical cyclone remote sensing physics has been validated by both SFMR and WindSat radiometers. HIRAD incorporates a unique, technologically advanced array antenna and several other technologies successfully demonstrated by NASA s Instrument Incubator Program. A brassboard (laboratory) version of the instrument has been completed and successfully tested in a test chamber. Development of the aircraft instrument is underway, with flight testing planned for the fall of 2009. Preliminary Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) show that HIRAD will have a significant positive impact on surface wind analyses as either a new aircraft or satellite sensor. New off-nadir data collected in 2008 by SFMR that affirms the ability of this measurement technique to obtain wind speed data at non-zero incidence angle will

  19. Global Change and Human Vulnerability to Vector-Borne Diseases

    PubMed Central

    Sutherst, Robert W.

    2004-01-01

    Global change includes climate change and climate variability, land use, water storage and irrigation, human population growth and urbanization, trade and travel, and chemical pollution. Impacts on vector-borne diseases, including malaria, dengue fever, infections by other arboviruses, schistosomiasis, trypanosomiasis, onchocerciasis, and leishmaniasis are reviewed. While climate change is global in nature and poses unknown future risks to humans and natural ecosystems, other local changes are occurring more rapidly on a global scale and are having significant effects on vector-borne diseases. History is invaluable as a pointer to future risks, but direct extrapolation is no longer possible because the climate is changing. Researchers are therefore embracing computer simulation models and global change scenarios to explore the risks. Credible ranking of the extent to which different vector-borne diseases will be affected awaits a rigorous analysis. Adaptation to the changes is threatened by the ongoing loss of drugs and pesticides due to the selection of resistant strains of pathogens and vectors. The vulnerability of communities to the changes in impacts depends on their adaptive capacity, which requires both appropriate technology and responsive public health systems. The availability of resources in turn depends on social stability, economic wealth, and priority allocation of resources to public health. PMID:14726459

  20. Global change and human vulnerability to vector-borne diseases.

    PubMed

    Sutherst, Robert W

    2004-01-01

    Global change includes climate change and climate variability, land use, water storage and irrigation, human population growth and urbanization, trade and travel, and chemical pollution. Impacts on vector-borne diseases, including malaria, dengue fever, infections by other arboviruses, schistosomiasis, trypanosomiasis, onchocerciasis, and leishmaniasis are reviewed. While climate change is global in nature and poses unknown future risks to humans and natural ecosystems, other local changes are occurring more rapidly on a global scale and are having significant effects on vector-borne diseases. History is invaluable as a pointer to future risks, but direct extrapolation is no longer possible because the climate is changing. Researchers are therefore embracing computer simulation models and global change scenarios to explore the risks. Credible ranking of the extent to which different vector-borne diseases will be affected awaits a rigorous analysis. Adaptation to the changes is threatened by the ongoing loss of drugs and pesticides due to the selection of resistant strains of pathogens and vectors. The vulnerability of communities to the changes in impacts depends on their adaptive capacity, which requires both appropriate technology and responsive public health systems. The availability of resources in turn depends on social stability, economic wealth, and priority allocation of resources to public health.

  1. [Vector transmitted diseases and climate changes in Europe].

    PubMed

    Rossati, Antonella; Bargiacchi, Olivia; Kroumova, Vesselina; Garavelli, Pietro Luigi

    2014-09-01

    The increase in temperatures recorded since the mid-nineteenth century is unprecedented in the history of mankind. The consequences of climate changes are numerous and can affect human health through direct (extreme events, natural disasters) or indirect (alteration of the ecosystem) mechanisms. Climate changes have repercussions on ecosystems, agriculture, social conditions, migration, conflicts and the transmission mode of infectious diseases. Vector-borne diseases are infections transmitted by the bite of infected arthropods such as mosquitoes, ticks, triatomines, sand flies and flies. Epidemiological cornerstones of vector-borne diseases are: the ecology and behaviour of the host, the ecology and behaviour of the vector, and the population's degree of immunity. Mosquito vectors related to human diseases mainly belong to the genus Culex, Aedes and Mansonia. Climate changes in Europe have increased the spread of new vectors, such as Aedes albopictus, and in some situations have made it possible to sustain the autochthonous transmission of some diseases (outbreak of Chukungunya virus in northern Italy in 2007, cases of dengue in the South of France and in Croatia). Despite the eradication of malaria from Europe, anopheline carriers are still present, and they may allow the transmission of the disease if the climatic conditions favour the development of the vectors and their contacts with plasmodium carriers. The tick Ixodes ricinus is a vector whose expansion has been documented both in latitude and in altitude in relation to the temperature increase; at the same time the related main viral and bacterial infections have increased. In northern Italy and Germany, the appearance of Leishmaniasis has been associated to climatic conditions that favour the development of the vector Phlebotomus papatasi and the maturation of the parasite within the vector, although the increase of cases of visceral leishmaniasis is also related to host immune factors, particularly

  2. A vector auto-regressive model for onshore and offshore wind synthesis incorporating meteorological model information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hill, D.; Bell, K. R. W.; McMillan, D.; Infield, D.

    2014-05-01

    The growth of wind power production in the electricity portfolio is striving to meet ambitious targets set, for example by the EU, to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% by 2020. Huge investments are now being made in new offshore wind farms around UK coastal waters that will have a major impact on the GB electrical supply. Representations of the UK wind field in syntheses which capture the inherent structure and correlations between different locations including offshore sites are required. Here, Vector Auto-Regressive (VAR) models are presented and extended in a novel way to incorporate offshore time series from a pan-European meteorological model called COSMO, with onshore wind speeds from the MIDAS dataset provided by the British Atmospheric Data Centre. Forecasting ability onshore is shown to be improved with the inclusion of the offshore sites with improvements of up to 25% in RMS error at 6 h ahead. In addition, the VAR model is used to synthesise time series of wind at each offshore site, which are then used to estimate wind farm capacity factors at the sites in question. These are then compared with estimates of capacity factors derived from the work of Hawkins et al. (2011). A good degree of agreement is established indicating that this synthesis tool should be useful in power system impact studies.

  3. Multispectral change vector analysis for monitoring coastal marine environments

    SciTech Connect

    Michalek, J.L.; Wagner, T.W.; Luczkovich, J.J.; Stoffle, R.W. Michigan Environmental Research Inst., Ann Arbor )

    1993-03-01

    This paper investigates the utility of multispectral Landsat Thematic Mapper satellite data for documenting changes to a Caribbean coastal zone using the change vector analysis processing technique. The area of study was the coastal region near the village of Buen Hombre on the north coast of the Dominican Republic. The change vector analysis techniques uses any number of spectral bands from multidate satellite data to produce change images that yield information about both the magnitude and direction of differences in pixel values (which are proportional to radiance). The final products were created by appending color-coded change pixels onto a black-and-white base map. The advantages and limitations of the technique for coastal inventories are discussed. 9 refs.

  4. Common themes in changing vector-borne disease scenarios.

    PubMed

    Molyneux, David H

    2003-01-01

    The impact of climate change on disease patterns is controversial. However, global burden of disease studies suggest that infectious diseases will contribute a proportionately smaller burden of disease over the next 2 decades as non-communicable diseases emerge as public health problems. However, infectious diseases contribute proportionately more in the poorest quintile of the population. Notwithstanding the different views of the impact of global warming on vector-borne infections this paper reviews the conditions which drive the changing epidemiology of these infections and suggests that such change is linked by common themes including interactions of generalist vectors and reservoir hosts at interfaces with humans, reduced biodiversity associated with anthropogenic environmental changes, increases in Plasmodium falciparum: P. vivax ratios and well-described land use changes such as hydrological, urbanization, agricultural, mining and forest-associated impacts (extractive activities, road building, deforestation and migration) which are seen on a global scale.

  5. Global climate change and vector-borne diseases

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ginsberg, H.S.

    2002-01-01

    Global warming will have different effects on different diseases because of the complex and idiosynchratic interactions between vectors, hosts, and pathogens that influence transmission dynamics of each pathogen. Human activities, including urbanization, rapid global travel, and vector management, have profound effects on disease transmission that can operate on more rapid time scales than does global climate change. The general concern about global warming encouraging the spread of tropical diseases is legitimate, but the effects vary among diseases, and the ecological implications are difficult to predict.

  6. Evaluation and Validation of Operational RapidScat Ocean Surface Vector Winds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, Paul; Jelenak, Zorana; Soisuvarn, Seubson; Said, Faozi; Sienkiewicz, Joseph; Brennan, Michael

    2015-04-01

    NASA launched RapidScat to the International Space Station (ISS) on September 21, 2014 on a two-year mission to support global monitoring of ocean winds for improved weather forecasting and climate studies. The JPL-developed space-based scatterometer is conically scanning and operates at ku-band (13.4 GHz) similar to QuikSCAT. The ISS-RapidScat's measurement swath is approximately 900 kilometers and covers the majority of the ocean between 51.6 degrees north and south latitude (approximately from north of Vancouver, Canada, to the southern tip of Patagonia) in 48 hours. RapidScat data are currently being posted at a spacing of 25 kilometers, but a version to be released in the near future will improve the postings to 12.5 kilometers. RapidScat ocean surface wind vector data are being provided in near real-time to NOAA, and other operational users such as the U.S. Navy, the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT), the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) and the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI). The quality of the RapidScat OSVW data are assessed by collocating the data in space and time with "truth" data. Typically "truth" data will include, but are not limited to, the NWS global forecast model analysis (GDAS) fields, buoys, ASCAT, WindSat, AMSR-2, and aircraft measurements during hurricane and winter storm experiment flights. The standard statistical analysis used for satellite microwave wind sensors will be utilized to characterize the RapidScat wind vector retrievals. The global numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are a convenient source of "truth" data because they are available 4 times/day globally which results in the accumulation of a large number of collocations over a relatively short amount of time. The NWP model fields are not "truth" in the same way an actual observation would be, however, as long as there are no systematic errors in the NWP model output the collocations will

  7. Climate change and vector-borne diseases: a regional analysis.

    PubMed

    Githeko, A K; Lindsay, S W; Confalonieri, U E; Patz, J A

    2000-01-01

    Current evidence suggests that inter-annual and inter-decadal climate variability have a direct influence on the epidemiology of vector-borne diseases. This evidence has been assessed at the continental level in order to determine the possible consequences of the expected future climate change. By 2100 it is estimated that average global temperatures will have risen by 1.0-3.5 degrees C, increasing the likelihood of many vector-borne diseases in new areas. The greatest effect of climate change on transmission is likely to be observed at the extremes of the range of temperatures at which transmission occurs. For many diseases these lie in the range 14-18 degrees C at the lower end and about 35-40 degrees C at the upper end. Malaria and dengue fever are among the most important vector-borne diseases in the tropics and subtropics; Lyme disease is the most common vector-borne disease in the USA and Europe. Encephalitis is also becoming a public health concern. Health risks due to climatic changes will differ between countries that have developed health infrastructures and those that do not. Human settlement patterns in the different regions will influence disease trends. While 70% of the population in South America is urbanized, the proportion in sub-Saharan Africa is less than 45%. Climatic anomalies associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon and resulting in drought and floods are expected to increase in frequency and intensity. They have been linked to outbreaks of malaria in Africa, Asia and South America. Climate change has far-reaching consequences and touches on all life-support systems. It is therefore a factor that should be placed high among those that affect human health and survival.

  8. Climate change and vector-borne diseases: a regional analysis.

    PubMed Central

    Githeko, A. K.; Lindsay, S. W.; Confalonieri, U. E.; Patz, J. A.

    2000-01-01

    Current evidence suggests that inter-annual and inter-decadal climate variability have a direct influence on the epidemiology of vector-borne diseases. This evidence has been assessed at the continental level in order to determine the possible consequences of the expected future climate change. By 2100 it is estimated that average global temperatures will have risen by 1.0-3.5 degrees C, increasing the likelihood of many vector-borne diseases in new areas. The greatest effect of climate change on transmission is likely to be observed at the extremes of the range of temperatures at which transmission occurs. For many diseases these lie in the range 14-18 degrees C at the lower end and about 35-40 degrees C at the upper end. Malaria and dengue fever are among the most important vector-borne diseases in the tropics and subtropics; Lyme disease is the most common vector-borne disease in the USA and Europe. Encephalitis is also becoming a public health concern. Health risks due to climatic changes will differ between countries that have developed health infrastructures and those that do not. Human settlement patterns in the different regions will influence disease trends. While 70% of the population in South America is urbanized, the proportion in sub-Saharan Africa is less than 45%. Climatic anomalies associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon and resulting in drought and floods are expected to increase in frequency and intensity. They have been linked to outbreaks of malaria in Africa, Asia and South America. Climate change has far-reaching consequences and touches on all life-support systems. It is therefore a factor that should be placed high among those that affect human health and survival. PMID:11019462

  9. The effect of the arbitrary level assignment of satellite cloud motion wind vectors on wind analyses in the pre-thunderstorm environment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Peslen, C. A.; Koch, S. E.; Uccellini, L. W.

    1985-01-01

    The impact of satellite-derived cloud motion vectors on SESAME rawinsonde wind fields was studied in two separate cases. The effect of wind and moisture gradients on the arbitrary assignment of the satellite data is assessed to coordinate surfaces in a severe storm environment marked by strong vertical wind shear. Objective analyses of SESAME rawinsonde winds and combined winds are produced and differences between these two analyzed fields are used to make an assessment of coordinate level choice. It is shown that the standard method of arbitrarily assigning wind vectors to a low level coordinate surface yields systematic differences between the rawinsonde and combined wind analyses. Arbitrary assignment of cloud motions to the 0.9 sigma surface produces smaller differences than assignment to the 825 mb pressure surface. Systematic differences occur near moisture discontinuities and in regions of horizontal and vertical wind shears. The differences between the combined and SESAME wind fields are made smallest by vertically interpolating cloud motions to either a pressure or sigma surface.

  10. Combining TOPEX and SeaWinds Data to Refine Models for Ocean Surface Emissivity: Wind Vector Signatures at 18, 21 and 37 GHz

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Vandemark, D.; Tran, N.; Ruf, C.; Vandemark, Douglas (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    TOPEX Microwave Radiometer (TMR) brightness temperature observations at 18, 21, and 37 GHz have been collocated with near-simultaneous SeaWinds wind vector data as well as with a monthly SST climatological product. The combined data set allows us to study the dependence of ocean surface emissivity (at each frequency) upon both wind speed. Results show clear two-branch wind speed dependence; weak and linear below 6 m/s with an abrupt increase in sensitivity above that point. The analysis also shows that the zenith-directed ocean surface emissivity is polarization dependent above wind speeds of 5-6 m/s with an azimuthal variation related to the wind direction. This last result accords with recent polarimetric radiometer observations collected from aircraft. Implications of these observations to water vapor retrieval algorithms, nadir-viewing polarimetry, and ocean emission modeling will be discussed.

  11. Vector Winds from a Single-Transmitter Bistatic Dual-Doppler Radar Network.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wurman, Joshua

    1994-06-01

    A bistatic dual-Doppler weather radar network consisting of only one transmitter and a nontransmitting, nonscanning, low-cost bistatic receiver was deployed in the Boulder, Colorado, area during 1993.The Boulder network took data in a variety of weather situations, including low-reflectivity stratiform snowfall, several convective cells, and a hailstorm. Dual-Doppler vector wind fields were retrieved and compared to those from a traditional, two-transmitter dual-Doppler network. The favorable results from these comparisons indicate that the bistatic dual-Doppler technique is viable and practical.Bistatic multiple-Doppler networks have significant scientific and economic advantages accruing from the use of only single sources of illumination. Individual spatial volumes are viewed simultaneously from multiple look angles, minimizing storm evolution-induced errors. The passive receivers in a bistatic network do not require expensive transmitters, moving antenna hardware, or operators. Thus, they require only a small pereentage of the investment needed to field traditional transmitting radars.Bistatic systems can be deployed affordably to provide three-dimensional fields of full-vector winds, including directly measured vertical precipitation particle velocities for numerous applications in meteorological research, aviation, forecasting, media, and education.

  12. Immunology, climate change and vector-borne diseases.

    PubMed

    Patz, J A; Reisen, W K

    2001-04-01

    Global climate change might expand the distribution of vector-borne pathogens in both time and space, thereby exposing host populations to longer transmission seasons, and immunologically naive populations to newly introduced pathogens. In the African highlands, where cool temperatures limit malaria parasite development, increases in temperature might enhance malaria transmission. St Louis encephalitis viral replication and the length of the transmission season depend upon ambient temperature. Warming temperatures in the American southwest might place at risk migratory, non-immune elderly persons that arrive in early fall to spend the winter. Warm temperatures might intensify or extend the transmission season for dengue fever. Immunologists should examine this interplay between human immunocompetence and vector-borne disease risks in a warmer world.

  13. Assessment of NOAA Processed OceanSat-2 Scatterometer Ocean Surface Vector Wind Products

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, P.; Jelenak, Z.; Soisuvarn, S.

    2011-12-01

    The Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) launched the Oceansat-2 satellite on 23 September 2009. Oceansat-2 carries a radar scatterometer instrument (OSCAT) capable of measuring ocean surface vector winds (OSVW) and an ocean color monitor (OCM), which will retrieve sea spectral reflectance. Oceansat-2 is ISRO's second in a series of satellites dedicated to ocean research. It will provide continuity to the services and applications of the Oceansat-1 OCM data along with additional data from a Ku-band pencil beam scatterometer. Oceansat-2 is a three-axis, body stabilized spacecraft placed into a near circular sun-synchronous orbit, at an altitude of 720 kilometers (km), with an equatorial crossing time of around 1200 hours. ISRO, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT) share the common goal of optimizing the quality and maximizing the utility of the Oceansat-2 data for the benefit of future global and regional scientific and operational applications. NOAA, NASA and EUMETSAT have been collaboratively working with ISRO on the assessment and analysis of OSCAT data to help facilitate continuation of QuikSCAT's decade-long Ku-band scatterometer data record. NOAA's interests are focused on the utilization of OSCAT data to support operational weather forecasting and warning in the marine environment. OSCAT has the potential to significantly mitigate the loss of NASA's QuikSCAT, which has negatively impacted NOAA's marine forecasting and warning services. Since March 2011 NOAA has been receiving near real time OSCAT measurements via EumetSat. NOAA has developed its own OSCAT wind processor. This processor produces ocean surface vector winds with resolution of 25km. Performance of NOAA OSCAT product will and its availability to larger user community will be presented and discussed.

  14. Wind energy: Developing energy, wealth, and change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hopkins, Matt

    Wind energy has emerged as one of the fastest growing energy sources in the United States over the course of the last decade. It is the renewable energy type most readily defining clean economy leadership. An uncertain policy context, public conflicts over the impacts of turbine installations, and unsorted connections to a national green development strategy raise questions about the continued viability of wind power in the U.S. This thesis attempts to document and question some of the issues raised by wind energy expansion in the U.S. generally, but in Maine in particular, in order to explain how environmental, social, and economic benefits accrue to places hosting wind projects. The available information combined with a targeted inquiry produce insights into how the state of Maine can improve its wind development policies and outcomes.

  15. Corrigendum to "Measuring the 3-D wind vector with a weight-shiftmicrolight aircraft" published in Atmos. Meas. Tech., 4, 1421-1444, 2011

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Metzger, S.; Junkermann, W.; Butterbach-Bahl, K.; Schmid, H. P.; Foken, T.

    2011-07-01

    This study investigates whether the 3-D wind vector can be measured reliably from a highly transportable and low-cost weight-shift microlight aircraft. We draw up a transferable procedure to accommodate flow distortion originating from the aircraft body and -wing. This procedure consists of the analysis of aircraft dynamics and seven successive calibration steps. For our aircraft the horizontal wind components receive their greatest single amendment (14 %, relative to the initial uncertainty) from the correction of flow distortion magnitude in the dynamic pressure computation. Conversely the vertical wind component is most of all improved (31 %) by subsequent steps considering the 3-D flow distortion distribution in the flow angle computations. Therein the influences of the aircraft's trim (53 %), as well as changes in the aircraft lift (16 %) are considered by using the measured lift coefficient as explanatory variable. Three independent lines of analysis are used to evaluate the quality of the wind measurement: (a) A wind tunnel study in combination with the propagation of sensor uncertainties defines the systems input uncertainty to ≈0.6 m s-1 at the extremes of a 95 % confidence interval. (b) During severe vertical flight manoeuvres the deviation range of the vertical wind component does not exceed 0.3 m s-1. (c) The comparison with ground based wind measurements yields an overall operational uncertainty (root mean square error) of ≈0.4 m s-1 for the horizontal and ≈0.3 m s-1 for the vertical wind components. No conclusive dependence of the uncertainty on the wind magnitude (<8 m s-1) or true airspeed (ranging from 23-30 m s-1) is found. Hence our analysis provides the necessary basis to study the wind measurement precision and spectral quality, which is prerequisite for reliable Eddy-Covariance flux measurements.

  16. Effects of Changing Atmospheric Conditions on Wind Turbine Performance (Poster)

    SciTech Connect

    Clifton, A.

    2012-12-01

    Multi-megawatt, utility-scale wind turbines operate in turbulent and dynamic winds that impact turbine performance in ways that are gradually becoming better understood. This poster presents a study made using a turbulent flow field simulator (TurbSim) and a Turbine aeroelastic simulator (FAST) of the response of a generic 1.5 MW wind turbine to changing inflow. The turbine power output is found to be most sensitive to wind speed and turbulence intensity, but the relationship depends on the wind speed with respect to the turbine's rated wind speed. Shear is found to be poorly correlated to power. A machine learning method called 'regression trees' is used to create a simple model of turbine performance that could be used as part of the wind resource assessment process. This study has used simple flow fields and should be extended to more complex flows, and validated with field observations.

  17. Using support vector machines for anomalous change detonation

    SciTech Connect

    Theiler, James P; Steinwart, Ingo; Llamocca, Daniel

    2010-01-01

    We cast anomalous change detection as a binary classification problem, and use a support vector machine (SVM) to build a detector that does not depend on assumptions about the underlying data distribution. To speed up the computation, our SVM is implemented, in part, on a graphical processing unit. Results on real and simulated anomalous changes are used to compare performance to algorithms which effectively assume a Gaussian distribution. In this paper, we investigate the use of support vector machines (SVMs) with radial basis kernels for finding anomalous changes. Compared to typical applications of SVMs, we are operating in a regime of very low false alarm rate. This means that even for relatively large training sets, the data are quite meager in the regime of operational interest. This drives us to use larger training sets, which in turn places more of a computational burden on the SVM. We initially considered three different approaches to to address the need to work in the very low false alarm rate regime. The first is a standard SVM which is trained at one threshold (where more reliable estimates of false alarm rates are possible) and then re-thresholded for the low false alarm rate regime. The second uses the same thresholding approach, but employs a so-called least squares SVM; here a quadratic (instead of a hinge-based) loss function is employed, and for this model, there are good theoretical arguments in favor of adjusting the threshold in a straightforward manner. The third approach employs a weighted support vector machine, where the weights for the two types of errors (false alarm and missed detection) are automatically adjusted to achieve the desired false alarm rate. We have found in previous experiments (not shown here) that the first two types can in some cases work well, while in other cases they do not. This renders both approaches unreliable for automated change detection. By contrast, the third approach reliably produces good results, but at

  18. Wind farm induced changes in wind speed and surface fluxes over the North Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chatterjee, Fabien; van Lipzig, Nicole; Meyers, Johan

    2016-04-01

    Offshore wind farm deployment in the North Sea is foreseen to expand dramatically in the coming years. The strong expansion of offshore wind parks is likely to affect the regional climatology on the North Sea. We assess this impact by conducting a regional climate model simulation over future wind farms built near the German coast. In order to achieve this, the wind farm parameterisation of Fitch et al. 2012, where wind farms are parameterised as elevated sources of turbulent kinetic energy and sinks of momentum ( Blahak et al 2010 and Fitch et al 2012) is implemented in COSMO-CLM at a 1.5 km resolution. As a first step, COSMO-CLM's ability to reproduce wind profiles over the North Sea is evaluated using wind speed data from the FINO1 meteorological mast, toghether with QuikScat scatterometer data, for a time period of 2000-2008. Subsequently, the impact of windfarms on the regional climate over a period of ten years (1999-2008) is assessed. A large scale wind farm can create wakes which depending on the wind direction could affect the power production of a neighbouring farm. Furthermore, wind farms decelerate the flow and create a vertical circulation in the inflow region. As a result, changes in vertical fluxes of moisture are observed. This leads to enhanced low level cloud cover which may trigger changes in precipitation.

  19. Short-term prediction of the horizontal wind vector within a wake vortex warning system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Frech, Michael; Holzäpfel, Frank; Gerz, Thomas; Konopka, Jens

    2002-03-01

    A wake vortex warning system (WVWS) has been developed for Frankfurt Airport. This airport has two parallel runways which are separated by 518 m, a distance too short to operate them independently because wake vortices may be advected to the adjacent runway. The objective of the WVWS is to enable operation with reduced separation between two aircraft approaching the parallel runways during appropriate wind conditions. The WVWS applies a statistical persistence model to predict the crosswind within a 20-minute period. One of the main problems identified in the old WVWS is discontinuity between successive forecasts. These forecast breakdowns were not acceptable to air traffic controllers. At least part of the problem was related to the fact that the forecast was solely based on the prediction of crosswind. A new method is developed on the basis of 523 days of sonic anemometer measurements at Frankfurt Airport. It is demonstrated that the prediction of the horizontal wind vector avoids these difficulties and significantly improves the system's performance.

  20. Wind shear detection using measurement of aircraft total energy change

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Joppa, R. G.

    1976-01-01

    Encounters with wind shears are of concern and have caused major accidents, particularly during landing approaches. Changes in the longitudinal component of the wind affect the aircraft by changing its kinetic energy with respect to the air. It is shown that an instrument which will measure and display the rate of change of total energy of the aircraft with respect to the air will give a leading indication of wind shear problems. The concept is outlined and some instrumentation and display considerations are discussed.

  1. Methods of reducing wind power changes from large turbine arrays

    SciTech Connect

    Schlueter, R.; Dorsey, J.; Lotfalian, M.; Park, G.; Shayanfar, M.

    1983-06-01

    This paper discusses methods of reducing the WECS generation change through selection of the wind turbine model for each site, selection of an appropriate siting configuration, and wind array controls. An analysis of wind generation change from an echelon and a farm for passage of a thunderstorm is presented to establish the factors concerning the wind turbine model and siting configuration that contribute to these variations. Detailed simulation results indicate more precisely how these factors can be exploited to minimize the WECS generation changes observed. Reduction of the wind generation change over ten minutes is shown to reduce the increase in spinning reserve, unloadable generation and load following requirements on unit commitment when significant WECS generation is present and the farm penetration constraint is satisfied. Controls on the blade pitch angle of all wind turbines in an array or a battery control are shown to reduce both the wind generation change out of an array and the effective farm penetration in anticipation of a storm so that the farm penetration constraint may be satisfied.

  2. A targeted change-detection procedure by combining change vector analysis and post-classification approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ye, Su; Chen, Dongmei; Yu, Jie

    2016-04-01

    In remote sensing, conventional supervised change-detection methods usually require effective training data for multiple change types. This paper introduces a more flexible and efficient procedure that seeks to identify only the changes that users are interested in, here after referred to as "targeted change detection". Based on a one-class classifier "Support Vector Domain Description (SVDD)", a novel algorithm named "Three-layer SVDD Fusion (TLSF)" is developed specially for targeted change detection. The proposed algorithm combines one-class classification generated from change vector maps, as well as before- and after-change images in order to get a more reliable detecting result. In addition, this paper introduces a detailed workflow for implementing this algorithm. This workflow has been applied to two case studies with different practical monitoring objectives: urban expansion and forest fire assessment. The experiment results of these two case studies show that the overall accuracy of our proposed algorithm is superior (Kappa statistics are 86.3% and 87.8% for Case 1 and 2, respectively), compared to applying SVDD to change vector analysis and post-classification comparison.

  3. World Wind Tools Reveal Environmental Change

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2012-01-01

    Originally developed under NASA's Learning Technologies program as a tool to engage and inspire students, World Wind software was released under the NASA Open Source Agreement license. Honolulu, Hawaii based Intelesense Technologies is one of the companies currently making use of the technology for environmental, public health, and other monitoring applications for nonprofit organizations and Government agencies. The company saved about $1 million in development costs by using the NASA software.

  4. Genomic Changes of Chagas Disease Vector, South America

    PubMed Central

    Dujardin, Jean Pierre; Nicolini, Paula; Caraccio, María Noel; Rose, Virginia; Tellez, Tatiana; Bermúdez, Hernán; Bargues, María Dolores; Mas-Coma, Santiago; O’Connor, José Enrique; Pérez, Ruben

    2004-01-01

    We analyzed the main karyologic changes that have occurred during the dispersion of Triatoma infestans, the main vector of Chagas disease. We identified two allopatric groups, named Andean and non-Andean. The Andean specimens present C-heterochromatic blocks in most of their 22 chromosomes, whereas non-Andean specimens have only 4–7 autosomes with C-banding. These heterochromatin differences are the likely cause of a striking DNA content variation (approximately 30%) between Andean and non-Andean insects. Our study, together with previous historical and genetic data, suggests that T. infestans was originally a sylvatic species, with large quantities of DNA and heterochromatin, inhabiting the Andean region of Bolivia. However, the spread of domestic T. infestans throughout the non-Andean regions only involved insects with an important reduction of heterochromatin and DNA amounts. We propose that heterochromatin and DNA variation mainly reflected adaptive genomic changes that contribute to the ability of T. infestans to survive, reproduce, and disperse in different environments. PMID:15109410

  5. Southern Ocean isopycnal mixing and ventilation changes driven by winds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abernathey, Ryan; Ferreira, David

    2015-12-01

    Observed and predicted changes in the strength of the westerly winds blowing over the Southern Ocean have motivated a number of studies on the response of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and Southern Ocean meridional overturning circulation (MOC) to wind perturbations and led to the hypothesis of the "eddy compensation" regime, wherein the MOC becomes insensitive to wind changes. In addition to the MOC, tracer transport also depends on mixing processes. Here we show, in a high-resolution process model, that isopycnal mixing by mesoscale eddies is strongly dependent on the wind strength. This dependence can be explained by mixing length theory and is driven by increases in eddy kinetic energy; the mixing length does not change strongly in our simulation. Simulation of a passive ventilation tracer (analogous to CFCs or anthropogenic CO2) demonstrates that variations in tracer uptake across experiments are dominated by changes in isopycnal mixing, rather than changes in the MOC. We argue that to properly understand tracer uptake under different wind-forcing scenarios, the sensitivity of isopycnal mixing to winds must be accounted for.

  6. Retrieval and Evaluation of Wind Vectors and Advective Surface Velocities from Synthetic Aperture Radar and Infrared Radiometer Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carvajal, Gisela; Eriksson, Leif E. B.

    Analysis of ocean surface dynamics has been proven to be of vital importance in many areas (e.g. shipping, fishing). Two important parameters to describe the ocean dynamics are the wind velocity (speed and direction) and advective surface velocities (ocean current velocity). These parameters are currently provided operationally by forecast models, surface sensors (e.g. buoys, coastal radar) and satellite sensors. However, coverage limitations, low resolution and limited temporal availability impose a need for implementation and evaluation of new data sources and techniques for estimation of these parameters. In this paper we implement and evaluate known techniques for determination of wind and ocean current velocity from satellite data. Wind is determined from Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data by applying two algo-rithms. First, the Local Gradient method is implemented to extract wind direction from the SAR data, and then the CMOD-5 Geophysical Model Function of the backscatter is inverted to obtain the wind speed as a function of the wind direction and the incidence angle. Current propagation is estimated by analyzing the Sea Surface Temperature propagation in two consec-utive infrared images of the same area from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer. The evaluation shows a good agreement between estimated wind vectors from SAR and scat-terometer data. Comparison with merged ocean current estimates is addressed. The methods will be implemented in the maritime security service provided by the SECTRONIC project funded by the EU 7th framework program.

  7. Noise model based ν-support vector regression with its application to short-term wind speed forecasting.

    PubMed

    Hu, Qinghua; Zhang, Shiguang; Xie, Zongxia; Mi, Jusheng; Wan, Jie

    2014-09-01

    Support vector regression (SVR) techniques are aimed at discovering a linear or nonlinear structure hidden in sample data. Most existing regression techniques take the assumption that the error distribution is Gaussian. However, it was observed that the noise in some real-world applications, such as wind power forecasting and direction of the arrival estimation problem, does not satisfy Gaussian distribution, but a beta distribution, Laplacian distribution, or other models. In these cases the current regression techniques are not optimal. According to the Bayesian approach, we derive a general loss function and develop a technique of the uniform model of ν-support vector regression for the general noise model (N-SVR). The Augmented Lagrange Multiplier method is introduced to solve N-SVR. Numerical experiments on artificial data sets, UCI data and short-term wind speed prediction are conducted. The results show the effectiveness of the proposed technique.

  8. A modified approach for change detection using change vector analysis in posterior probability space

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Azzouzi, S. A.; Vidal, A.; Bentounes, H. A.

    2015-04-01

    The multispectral and multitemporal data coming from satellites allow us to extract valuable spatiotemporal change. Consequently, Earth surface change detection analysis has been used in the past to monitor land cover changes caused by different reasons. Several techniques have been used for that purpose and change vector analysis (CVA) has been frequently employed to carry out automatic spatiotemporal information extraction. This work describes a modified methodology based on Supervised Change Vector Analysis in Posterior probability Space (SCVAPS) with the final aim of obtaining a change detection map in Blida, Algeria. The proposed technique is a Modified version of Supervised Change Vector Analysis Posterior probability Space (MSCVAPS) and it is applied at the same region that the original technique studied in the literature. The classical Maximum Likelihood classifier is the selected method for supervised classification since it provides good properties in the posterior probability map. An improved method for threshold determination based on Double Flexible Pace Search (DFPS) is proposed in this work and it is employed to obtain the most adequate threshold value. Then, the MSCVAPS approach is evaluated by two cases study of the land cover change detection in the region of Blida, Algeria, and in the region of Shunyi District, Beijing, China, using a pair of Landsat Thematic Mapper images and pair of Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper images, respectively. The final evaluation is given by the overall accuracy of changed and unchanged pixels and the kappa coefficient. The results show that the modified approach gives excellent results using the same area of study that was selected in the literature.

  9. Measuring the turbulent wind vector with a weight-shift Microlight Aircraft

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Metzger, S.; Junkermann, W.; Neidl, F.; Butterbach-Bahl, K.; Schmid, H. P.; Beyrich, F.; Zheng, X. H.; Foken, T.

    2009-09-01

    The Small Environmental Research Aircraft (SERA) D-MIFUs initial fields of application are aerosol / cloud and radiation transfer research. Therefore a comparatively slow (True Airspeed, TAS ~25 ms-1) but highly mobile microlight aircraft was envisaged. To broaden the application area of D-MIFU we explore whether the microlight can also be used for Eddy Covariance (EC) flux measurement. To obtain useful data sets for airborne EC a reliable turbulent Wind Vector (WV) measurement is a key requirement. Here we present methodology and results to calibrate and express performance and uncertainty of microlight based WV measurement. Specific attention is given to the influence of the flexible-wing weight-shift geometry on the WV measurement. For the WV measurement we equipped D-MIFU with a 70 cm long noseboom supporting a classical 5 hole probe and a fast 50 μm diameter thermocouple. An Inertial Navigation System (INS) supplies high accuracy ground speeds (Ï?=0.05 ms-1) and attitude angles (Ï?=0.03° , 0.1° respectively for heading). Data are stored with 10 Hz yielding a horizontal resolution of 2.5 m. The INS also allows to analyze aircraft dynamics such as 3d rotation rates and acceleration of the nacelle body. Further estimates for 3d acceleration of airfoil and noseboom are obtained at 100 Hz. The noseboom calibration coefficients under laboratory conditions were obtained by wind tunnel- and thermal bath measurements. To transfer these characteristics for in-flight conditions we carried out a series of flights with D-MIFU above the Boundary Layer under calm conditions. On basis of level flights at different power settings we were able to determine dynamic pressure-, sideslip- and attack angle offsets. Additionally forced maneuvers, such as e.g. phugoids, have been performed. By means of multivariate analysis these data are used to assess and minimize the impact of microlight nacelle and airfoil rapidly varying motions (RVM) on the WV components. In the final

  10. Evaluation of turbulent magnetic energy spectra in the three-dimensional wave vector domain in the solar wind

    SciTech Connect

    Gary, S Peter; Narita, Y; Glassmeier, K H; Goldstein, M L; Safraoui, F; Treumann, R A

    2009-01-01

    Using four-point measurements of the CLUSTER spacecraft, the energy distribution of magnetic field fluctuations in the solar wind is determined directly in the three-dimensional wave vector domain in the range 3 x 10{sup -4} rad/km < k < 3 x 10{sup -3} rad/km. The analysis method takes account of a regular tetrahedron configuration of CLUSTER and the Doppler effect. The energy distribution in the flow rest frame is anisotropic, characterized by two distinct extended structures perpendicular to the mean magnetic field and furthermore perpendicular to the flow direction. The three-dimensional distribution is averaged around the direction of the mean magnetic field direction, and then is further reduced to one-dimensional distributions in the wave number domain parallel and perpendicular to the mean magnetic field. The one-dimensional energy spectra are characterized by the power law with the index -5/3 and furthermore very close energy density between parallel and perpendicular directions to the mean magnetic field at the same wave numbers. Though the distributions and the spectra are not covered in a wide range of wave vectors, our measurements suggest that the solar wind fluctuation is anisotropic in the three-dimensional wave vector space. It is, however, rather isotropic when reduced into the parallel and perpendicular wave vector geometries due to the second anisotropy imposed by the flow direction.

  11. Climate change. Climate change and wind intensification in coastal upwelling ecosystems.

    PubMed

    Sydeman, W J; García-Reyes, M; Schoeman, D S; Rykaczewski, R R; Thompson, S A; Black, B A; Bograd, S J

    2014-07-01

    In 1990, Andrew Bakun proposed that increasing greenhouse gas concentrations would force intensification of upwelling-favorable winds in eastern boundary current systems that contribute substantial services to society. Because there is considerable disagreement about whether contemporary wind trends support Bakun's hypothesis, we performed a meta-analysis of the literature on upwelling-favorable wind intensification. The preponderance of published analyses suggests that winds have intensified in the California, Benguela, and Humboldt upwelling systems and weakened in the Iberian system over time scales ranging up to 60 years; wind change is equivocal in the Canary system. Stronger intensification signals are observed at higher latitudes, consistent with the warming pattern associated with climate change. Overall, reported changes in coastal winds, although subtle and spatially variable, support Bakun's hypothesis of upwelling intensification in eastern boundary current systems.

  12. Climate change. Climate change and wind intensification in coastal upwelling ecosystems.

    PubMed

    Sydeman, W J; García-Reyes, M; Schoeman, D S; Rykaczewski, R R; Thompson, S A; Black, B A; Bograd, S J

    2014-07-01

    In 1990, Andrew Bakun proposed that increasing greenhouse gas concentrations would force intensification of upwelling-favorable winds in eastern boundary current systems that contribute substantial services to society. Because there is considerable disagreement about whether contemporary wind trends support Bakun's hypothesis, we performed a meta-analysis of the literature on upwelling-favorable wind intensification. The preponderance of published analyses suggests that winds have intensified in the California, Benguela, and Humboldt upwelling systems and weakened in the Iberian system over time scales ranging up to 60 years; wind change is equivocal in the Canary system. Stronger intensification signals are observed at higher latitudes, consistent with the warming pattern associated with climate change. Overall, reported changes in coastal winds, although subtle and spatially variable, support Bakun's hypothesis of upwelling intensification in eastern boundary current systems. PMID:24994651

  13. Atmospheric dynamics: Arctic winds of change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Notz, Dirk

    2016-09-01

    The Earth's climate evolves in response to both externally forced changes and internal variability. Now research suggests that both drivers combine to set the pace of Arctic warming caused by large-scale sea-ice loss.

  14. The influence of virus-induced changes in plants on aphid vectors: insights from luteovirus pathosystems.

    PubMed

    Bosque-Pérez, Nilsa A; Eigenbrode, Sanford D

    2011-08-01

    Plant virus infection can alter the suitability of host plants for their aphid vectors. Most reports indicate that virus-infected plants are superior hosts for vectors compared to virus-free plants with respect to vector growth rates, fecundity and longevity. Some aphid vectors respond preferentially to virus-infected plants compared to virus-free ones, while others avoid infected plants that are inferior hosts. Thus, it appears vectors can exploit changes in host plant quality associated with viral infection. Enhanced vector performance and preference for virus-infected plants might also be advantageous for viruses by promoting their spread and possibly enhancing their fitness. Our research has focused on two of the most important luteoviruses that infect wheat (Barley yellow dwarf virus), or potato (Potato leafroll virus), and their respective aphid vectors, the bird-cherry oat aphid, Rhopalosiphum padi, and the green peach aphid, Myzus persicae. The work has demonstrated that virus infection of host plants enhances the life history of vectors. Additionally, it has shown that virus infection alters the concentration and relative composition of volatile organic compounds in host plants, that apterae of each vector species settle preferentially on virus-infected plants, and that such responses are mediated by volatile organic compounds. The findings also indicate that plants respond heterogeneously to viral infection and as a result different plant parts change in attractiveness to vectors during infection and vector responses to virus-infected plants are dynamic. Such dynamic responses could enhance or reduce the probability of virus acquisition by individual aphids searching among plants. Finally, our work indicates that compared to non-viruliferous aphids, viruliferous ones are less or not responsive to virus-induced host plant volatiles. Changes in vector responsiveness to plants after vectors acquire virus could impact virus epidemiology by influencing virus

  15. Detecting Changes of Thermal Environment over the Bohai Coastal Region by Spectral Change Vector Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hu, Y.; Jia, G.

    2009-12-01

    Change vector analysis (CVA) is an effective approach for detecting and characterizing land-cover change by comparing pairs of multi-spectral and multi-temporal datasets over certain area derived from various satellite platforms. NDVI is considered as an effective detector for biophysical changes due to its sensitivity to red and near infrared signals, while land surface temperature (LST) is considered as a valuable indicator for changes of ground thermal conditions. Here we try to apply CVA over satellite derived LST datasets to detect changes of land surface thermal properties parallel to climate change and anthropogenic influence in a city cluster since 2001. In this study, monthly land surface temperature datasets from 2001-2008 derived from MODIS collection 5 were used to examine change pattern of thermal environment over the Bohai coastal region by using spectral change vector analysis. The results from principle component analysis (PCA) for LST show that the PC 1-3 contain over 80% information on monthly variations and these PCA components represent the main processes of land thermal environment change over the study area. Time series of CVA magnitude combined with land cover information show that greatest change occurred in urban and heavily populated area, featured with expansion of urban heat island, while moderate change appeared in grassland area in the north. However few changes were observed over large plain area and forest area. Strong signals also are related to economy level and especially the events of surface cover change, such as emergence of railway and port. Two main processes were also noticed about the changes of thermal environment. First, weak signal was detected in mostly natural area influenced by interannual climate change in temperate broadleaf forest area. Second, land surface temperature changes were controlled by human activities as 1) moderate change of LST happened in grassland influenced by grazing and 2) urban heat island was

  16. Wind farms and weather: the predictability of wind farm-induced changes in the downstream atmosphere.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barrie, D.; Kirk-Davidoff, D.

    2007-12-01

    The installed wind power capacity worldwide has now exceeded 80 Gigawatts, 12 Gigawatts of which is located in the United States. The size of this capacity is growing at an accelerating rate due to an increasingly reasonable delivery price compared to other energy sources, and improvements in turbine technologies. In light of this growth, we have studied the potential impact that deliberate management of a large wind farm has on both regional climatology and the ability to modify a particular storm's strength and track. We illuminate the extent to which any such changes can be made predictably within a reasonable forecast timeframe. We also distinguish remote anomalies arising from spectral wave generation within the model during the first few time steps from significant anomalies caused by gravity wave propagation away from the wind farm site. Management of a wind farm would be performed in the field by altering the farm's effective roughness length through adjustment of the attitude of the turbine blades with respect to the wind direction. We will also present results that elucidate the dependence of a storm's downstream strength upon both the timing and magnitude of the surface roughness change. This project follows work by Kirk- Davidoff and Keith (2007) that demonstrated a significant extended regional effect on climatology through an alteration of surface roughness over a large area.

  17. Methods of Recording Rapid Wind Changes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Magnan, A

    1932-01-01

    The purpose of our research was to determine the rapid changes of air currents which impose varying stresses on the wings of airplanes. We attempted to express in figures the turbulence of the air, which perhaps plays some role in the behavior of airplanes in flight, as well as in the realization of certain methods of gliding flight. This is the reason which led us to conceive and develop the experimental equipment (hot-wire anemometer) described herein.

  18. Will the Winds of Change Bring a Growth Model?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schwartzbeck, Terri Duggan

    2005-01-01

    One of the top questions about the No Child Left Behind Act, both before and after its passage, was "why isn't adequate yearly progress based on growth rather than just on year-to-year snapshots?" Now, three years into the implementation of this sweeping federal education law, the winds of change are blowing in Washington, and the use of growth…

  19. Effects of Local Anthropogenic Changes on Potential Malaria Vector Anopheles hyrcanus and West Nile Virus Vector Culex modestus, Camargue, France

    PubMed Central

    Ponçon, Nicolas; Balenghien, Thomas; Toty, Céline; Ferré, Jean Baptiste; Thomas, Cyrille; Dervieux, Alain; L’Ambert, Grégory; Schaffner, Francis; Bardin, Olivier

    2007-01-01

    Using historical data, we highlight the consequences of anthropogenic ecosystem modifications on the abundance of mosquitoes implicated as the current most important potential malaria vector, Anopheles hyrcanus, and the most important West Nile virus (WNV) vector, Culex modestus, in the Camargue region, France. From World War II to 1971, populations of these species increased as rice cultivation expanded in the region in a political context that supported agriculture. They then fell, likely because of decreased cultivation and increased pesticide use to control a rice pest. The species increased again after 2000 with the advent of more targeted pest-management strategies, mainly the results of European regulations decisions. An intertwined influence of political context, environmental constraints, technical improvements, and social factors led to changes in mosquito abundance that had potential consequences on malaria and WNV transmission. These findings suggest that anthropogenic changes should not be underestimated in vectorborne disease recrudescence. PMID:18258028

  20. Host Life History Strategy, Species Diversity, and Habitat Influence Trypanosoma cruzi Vector Infection in Changing Landscapes

    PubMed Central

    Gottdenker, Nicole L.; Chaves, Luis Fernando; Calzada, José E.; Saldaña, Azael; Carroll, C. Ronald

    2012-01-01

    Background Anthropogenic land use may influence transmission of multi-host vector-borne pathogens by changing diversity, relative abundance, and community composition of reservoir hosts. These reservoir hosts may have varying competence for vector-borne pathogens depending on species-specific characteristics, such as life history strategy. The objective of this study is to evaluate how anthropogenic land use change influences blood meal species composition and the effects of changing blood meal species composition on the parasite infection rate of the Chagas disease vector Rhodnius pallescens in Panama. Methodology/Principal Findings R. pallescens vectors (N = 643) were collected in different habitat types across a gradient of anthropogenic disturbance. Blood meal species in DNA extracted from these vectors was identified in 243 (40.3%) vectors by amplification and sequencing of a vertebrate-specific fragment of the 12SrRNA gene, and T. cruzi vector infection was determined by pcr. Vector infection rate was significantly greater in deforested habitats as compared to contiguous forests. Forty-two different species of blood meal were identified in R. pallescens, and species composition of blood meals varied across habitat types. Mammals (88.3%) dominated R. pallescens blood meals. Xenarthrans (sloths and tamanduas) were the most frequently identified species in blood meals across all habitat types. A regression tree analysis indicated that blood meal species diversity, host life history strategy (measured as rmax, the maximum intrinsic rate of population increase), and habitat type (forest fragments and peridomiciliary sites) were important determinants of vector infection with T. cruzi. The mean intrinsic rate of increase and the skewness and variability of rmax were positively associated with higher vector infection rate at a site. Conclusions/Significance In this study, anthropogenic landscape disturbance increased vector infection with T. cruzi, potentially

  1. Potential contribution of wind energy to climate change mitigation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barthelmie, R. J.; Pryor, S. C.

    2014-08-01

    It is still possible to limit greenhouse gas emissions to avoid the 2 °C warming threshold for dangerous climate change. Here we explore the potential role of expanded wind energy deployment in climate change mitigation efforts. At present, most turbines are located in extra-tropical Asia, Europe and North America, where climate projections indicate continuity of the abundant wind resource during this century. Scenarios from international agencies indicate that this virtually carbon-free source could supply 10-31% of electricity worldwide by 2050 (refs , ). Using these projections within Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) climate forcing scenarios, we show that dependent on the precise RCP followed, pursuing a moderate wind energy deployment plan by 2050 delays crossing the 2 °C warming threshold by 1-6 years. Using more aggressive wind turbine deployment strategies delays 2 °C warming by 3-10 years, or in the case of RCP4.5 avoids passing this threshold altogether. To maximize these climate benefits, deployment of non-fossil electricity generation must be coupled with reduced energy use.

  2. SECULAR CHANGES IN ETA CARINAE'S WIND 1998-2011

    SciTech Connect

    Mehner, Andrea; Davidson, Kris; Humphreys, Roberta M.; Ishibashi, Kazunori; Martin, John C.; Ruiz, Maria Teresa; Walter, Frederick M.

    2012-05-20

    Stellar wind-emission features in the spectrum of eta Carinae have decreased by factors of 1.5-3 relative to the continuum within the last 10 years. We investigate a large data set from several instruments (STIS, GMOS, UVES) obtained between 1998 and 2011 and analyze the progression of spectral changes in direct view of the star, in the reflected polar-on spectra at FOS4, and at the Weigelt knots. We find that the spectral changes occurred gradually on a timescale of about 10 years and that they are dependent on the viewing angle. The line strengths declined most in our direct view of the star. About a decade ago, broad stellar wind-emission features were much stronger in our line-of-sight view of the star than at FOS4. After the 2009 event, the wind-emission line strengths are now very similar at both locations. High-excitation He I and N II absorption lines in direct view of the star strengthened gradually. The terminal velocity of Balmer P Cyg absorption lines now appears to be less latitude dependent, and the absorption strength may have weakened at FOS4. Latitude-dependent alterations in the mass-loss rate and the ionization structure of eta Carinae's wind are likely explanations for the observed spectral changes.

  3. Predicting the effect of climate change on African trypanosomiasis: integrating epidemiology with parasite and vector biology.

    PubMed

    Moore, Sean; Shrestha, Sourya; Tomlinson, Kyle W; Vuong, Holly

    2012-05-01

    Climate warming over the next century is expected to have a large impact on the interactions between pathogens and their animal and human hosts. Vector-borne diseases are particularly sensitive to warming because temperature changes can alter vector development rates, shift their geographical distribution and alter transmission dynamics. For this reason, African trypanosomiasis (sleeping sickness), a vector-borne disease of humans and animals, was recently identified as one of the 12 infectious diseases likely to spread owing to climate change. We combine a variety of direct effects of temperature on vector ecology, vector biology and vector-parasite interactions via a disease transmission model and extrapolate the potential compounding effects of projected warming on the epidemiology of African trypanosomiasis. The model predicts that epidemics can occur when mean temperatures are between 20.7°C and 26.1°C. Our model does not predict a large-range expansion, but rather a large shift of up to 60 per cent in the geographical extent of the range. The model also predicts that 46-77 million additional people may be at risk of exposure by 2090. Future research could expand our analysis to include other environmental factors that influence tsetse populations and disease transmission such as humidity, as well as changes to human, livestock and wildlife distributions. The modelling approach presented here provides a framework for using the climate-sensitive aspects of vector and pathogen biology to predict changes in disease prevalence and risk owing to climate change.

  4. Analysis of wind bias change with respect to time at Cape Kennedy, Florida, and Vandenberg AFB, California

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Adelfang, S. I.

    1978-01-01

    A statistical analysis is presented of the temporal variability of wind vectors at 1 km altitude intervals from 0 to 27 km altitude after applying a digital filter to the original wind profile data sample.

  5. Effect of wind turbine generator model and siting on wind power changes out of large WECS arrays

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schleuter, R. A.; Park, G. L.; Lotfalian, M.; Dorsey, J.; Shayanfar, H.

    1981-01-01

    Methods of reducing the WECS generation change through selection of the wind turbine model for each site, selection of an appropriate siting configuration, and wind array controls are discussed. An analysis of wind generation change from an echelon and a farm for passage of a thunderstorm is presented. Reduction of the wind generation change over ten minutes is shown to reduce the increase in spinning reserve, unloadable generation and load following requirements on unit commitment when significant WECS generation is present and the farm penetration constraint is satisfied. Controls on the blade pitch angle of all wind turbines in an array or a battery control are shown to reduce both the wind generation change out of an array and the effective farm penetration in anticipation of a storm so that the farm penetration constraint may be satisfied.

  6. Combining Climatic Projections and Dispersal Ability: A Method for Estimating the Responses of Sandfly Vector Species to Climate Change

    PubMed Central

    Fischer, Dominik; Moeller, Philipp; Thomas, Stephanie M.; Naucke, Torsten J.; Beierkuhnlein, Carl

    2011-01-01

    Background In the Old World, sandfly species of the genus Phlebotomus are known vectors of Leishmania, Bartonella and several viruses. Recent sandfly catches and autochthonous cases of leishmaniasis hint on spreading tendencies of the vectors towards Central Europe. However, studies addressing potential future distribution of sandflies in the light of a changing European climate are missing. Methodology Here, we modelled bioclimatic envelopes using MaxEnt for five species with proven or assumed vector competence for Leishmania infantum, which are either predominantly located in (south-) western (Phlebotomus ariasi, P. mascittii and P. perniciosus) or south-eastern Europe (P. neglectus and P. perfiliewi). The determined bioclimatic envelopes were transferred to two climate change scenarios (A1B and B1) for Central Europe (Austria, Germany and Switzerland) using data of the regional climate model COSMO-CLM. We detected the most likely way of natural dispersal (“least-cost path”) for each species and hence determined the accessibility of potential future climatically suitable habitats by integrating landscape features, projected changes in climatic suitability and wind speed. Results and Relevance Results indicate that the Central European climate will become increasingly suitable especially for those vector species with a current south-western focus of distribution. In general, the highest suitability of Central Europe is projected for all species in the second half of the 21st century, except for P. perfiliewi. Nevertheless, we show that sandflies will hardly be able to occupy their climatically suitable habitats entirely, due to their limited natural dispersal ability. A northward spread of species with south-eastern focus of distribution may be constrained but not completely avoided by the Alps. Our results can be used to install specific monitoring systems to the projected risk zones of potential sandfly establishment. This is urgently needed for adaptation

  7. Polarimetric Ku-Band Scatterometer for High Accuracy, Large Swath Global Wind Vector Measurements

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tsai, Wu-Yang; Nghiem, Son V.; Huddleston, James; Spencer, Michael; Stiles, Bryan; West, Richard

    2000-01-01

    In the past, wind measurements from space using fan-beam antennas, such as Seasat Scatterometer (SASS-1), ERS-1 &2, and NASA scatterometer (NSCAT), required up to six large stick-like antennas and suffered a nadir gap of up to 400 km. In the near future, a spinning pencil-beam scatterometer system is to be used for the SeaWinds scatterometer on QuikSCAT (QSCAT) and on ADEOS-2 (SeaWinds). This scatterometer, though offering wind measurements in the nadir region, still suffers from degraded performance in the nadir and outer swath. The purpose of this paper is to present an advanced polarimetric spinning pencil-beam scatterometer system, which can significantly improve the wind performance across the entire swath. The polarimetric scatterometer simultaneously measures co-polarized backscatter and the polarimetric correlation of co- and cross-polarized radar returns from the ocean surface. The advantage over the conventional scatterometer system is that, while the co-polarization radar returns are even function of the wind direction, the polarimetric correlation is an odd function of wind direction due to the reflection symmetry of the wind roughened surface. Therefore, this polarimetric scatterometer system can provide additional, equivalent measurements at azimuth angle 45degree away from the corresponding co-polarization measurements. The combined co-polarization and correlation measurements enable good wind performance across the whole swath to be obtained. In this paper, we will first present the theoretical formulation of all of the key components required for designing a polarimetric scatterometer. Then, we show that good wind performance can be achieved by a slight improvement in the signal-to-noise ratio of the current QSCAT/SeaWinds design. We then present the predicated wind performance using computer simulation based on a model function for the co-polarized backscatter obtained from actual spaceborne scatterometer data and an estimated model function for

  8. Structural changes in lower ionosphere wind trends at midlatitudes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jacobi, C.; Merzlyakov, E. G.; Liu, R. Q.; Solovjova, T. V.; Portnyagin, Y. I.

    2010-10-01

    Long-term variability of the mesosphere/lower thermosphere (lower E region ionosphere) since 1970 has been analyzed using wind data series obtained at Collm (52° N, 15° E) using the LF drift method and at Obninsk (55° N, 37° E) applying VHF meteor radar. Applying piecewise linear trend analysis with a priori unknown number and positions of breakpoints shows that trend models with breakpoints are generally to be preferred against straight lines. There is a strong indication for a change of trends in wind parameters around 1975-1980. Similar changes are also found in the lower atmosphere, e.g., in tropospheric temperatures. This indicates a coupling between atmospheric layers at time scales of decades.

  9. Method for changing removable bearing for a wind turbine generator

    DOEpatents

    Bagepalli, Bharat Sampathkumaran; Jansen, Patrick Lee; Gadre, Aniruddha Dattatraya

    2008-04-22

    A wind generator having removable change-out bearings includes a rotor and a stator, locking bolts configured to lock the rotor and stator, a removable bearing sub-assembly having at least one shrunk-on bearing installed, and removable mounting bolts configured to engage the bearing sub-assembly and to allow the removable bearing sub-assembly to be removed when the removable mounting bolts are removed.

  10. Modeling vector-borne disease risk in migratory animals under climate change.

    PubMed

    Hall, Richard J; Brown, Leone M; Altizer, Sonia

    2016-08-01

    Recent theory suggests that animals that migrate to breed at higher latitudes may benefit from reduced pressure from natural enemies, including pathogens ("migratory escape"), and that migration itself weeds out infected individuals and lowers infection prevalence ("migratory culling"). The distribution and activity period of arthropod disease vectors in temperate regions is expected to respond rapidly to climate change, which could reduce the potential for migratory escape. However, climate change could have the opposite effect of reducing transmission if differential responses in the phenology and distribution of migrants and disease vectors reduce their overlap in space and time. Here we outline a simple modeling framework for exploring the influence of climate change on vector-borne disease dynamics in a migratory host. We investigate two scenarios under which pathogen transmission dynamics might be mediated by climate change: (1) vectors respond more rapidly than migrants to advancing phenology at temperate breeding sites, causing peak susceptible host density and vector emergence to diverge ("migratory mismatch") and (2) reduced migratory propensity allows increased nonbreeding survival of infected hosts and larger breeding-site epidemics (loss of migratory culling, here referred to as "sedentary amplification"). Our results highlight the need for continued surveillance of climate-induced changes to migratory behavior and vector activity to predict pathogen prevalence and its impacts on migratory animals.

  11. Predicting malaria vector distribution under climate change scenarios in China: Challenges for malaria elimination.

    PubMed

    Ren, Zhoupeng; Wang, Duoquan; Ma, Aimin; Hwang, Jimee; Bennett, Adam; Sturrock, Hugh J W; Fan, Junfu; Zhang, Wenjie; Yang, Dian; Feng, Xinyu; Xia, Zhigui; Zhou, Xiao-Nong; Wang, Jinfeng

    2016-01-01

    Projecting the distribution of malaria vectors under climate change is essential for planning integrated vector control activities for sustaining elimination and preventing reintroduction of malaria. In China, however, little knowledge exists on the possible effects of climate change on malaria vectors. Here we assess the potential impact of climate change on four dominant malaria vectors (An. dirus, An. minimus, An. lesteri and An. sinensis) using species distribution models for two future decades: the 2030 s and the 2050 s. Simulation-based estimates suggest that the environmentally suitable area (ESA) for An. dirus and An. minimus would increase by an average of 49% and 16%, respectively, under all three scenarios for the 2030 s, but decrease by 11% and 16%, respectively in the 2050 s. By contrast, an increase of 36% and 11%, respectively, in ESA of An. lesteri and An. sinensis, was estimated under medium stabilizing (RCP4.5) and very heavy (RCP8.5) emission scenarios. in the 2050 s. In total, we predict a substantial net increase in the population exposed to the four dominant malaria vectors in the decades of the 2030 s and 2050 s, considering land use changes and urbanization simultaneously. Strategies to achieve and sustain malaria elimination in China will need to account for these potential changes in vector distributions and receptivity. PMID:26868185

  12. Predicting malaria vector distribution under climate change scenarios in China: Challenges for malaria elimination

    PubMed Central

    Ren, Zhoupeng; Wang, Duoquan; Ma, Aimin; Hwang, Jimee; Bennett, Adam; Sturrock, Hugh J. W.; Fan, Junfu; Zhang, Wenjie; Yang, Dian; Feng, Xinyu; Xia, Zhigui; Zhou, Xiao-Nong; Wang, Jinfeng

    2016-01-01

    Projecting the distribution of malaria vectors under climate change is essential for planning integrated vector control activities for sustaining elimination and preventing reintroduction of malaria. In China, however, little knowledge exists on the possible effects of climate change on malaria vectors. Here we assess the potential impact of climate change on four dominant malaria vectors (An. dirus, An. minimus, An. lesteri and An. sinensis) using species distribution models for two future decades: the 2030 s and the 2050 s. Simulation-based estimates suggest that the environmentally suitable area (ESA) for An. dirus and An. minimus would increase by an average of 49% and 16%, respectively, under all three scenarios for the 2030 s, but decrease by 11% and 16%, respectively in the 2050 s. By contrast, an increase of 36% and 11%, respectively, in ESA of An. lesteri and An. sinensis, was estimated under medium stabilizing (RCP4.5) and very heavy (RCP8.5) emission scenarios. in the 2050 s. In total, we predict a substantial net increase in the population exposed to the four dominant malaria vectors in the decades of the 2030 s and 2050 s, considering land use changes and urbanization simultaneously. Strategies to achieve and sustain malaria elimination in China will need to account for these potential changes in vector distributions and receptivity. PMID:26868185

  13. Modeling vector-borne disease risk in migratory animals under climate change.

    PubMed

    Hall, Richard J; Brown, Leone M; Altizer, Sonia

    2016-08-01

    Recent theory suggests that animals that migrate to breed at higher latitudes may benefit from reduced pressure from natural enemies, including pathogens ("migratory escape"), and that migration itself weeds out infected individuals and lowers infection prevalence ("migratory culling"). The distribution and activity period of arthropod disease vectors in temperate regions is expected to respond rapidly to climate change, which could reduce the potential for migratory escape. However, climate change could have the opposite effect of reducing transmission if differential responses in the phenology and distribution of migrants and disease vectors reduce their overlap in space and time. Here we outline a simple modeling framework for exploring the influence of climate change on vector-borne disease dynamics in a migratory host. We investigate two scenarios under which pathogen transmission dynamics might be mediated by climate change: (1) vectors respond more rapidly than migrants to advancing phenology at temperate breeding sites, causing peak susceptible host density and vector emergence to diverge ("migratory mismatch") and (2) reduced migratory propensity allows increased nonbreeding survival of infected hosts and larger breeding-site epidemics (loss of migratory culling, here referred to as "sedentary amplification"). Our results highlight the need for continued surveillance of climate-induced changes to migratory behavior and vector activity to predict pathogen prevalence and its impacts on migratory animals. PMID:27252225

  14. Predicting malaria vector distribution under climate change scenarios in China: Challenges for malaria elimination

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ren, Zhoupeng; Wang, Duoquan; Ma, Aimin; Hwang, Jimee; Bennett, Adam; Sturrock, Hugh J. W.; Fan, Junfu; Zhang, Wenjie; Yang, Dian; Feng, Xinyu; Xia, Zhigui; Zhou, Xiao-Nong; Wang, Jinfeng

    2016-02-01

    Projecting the distribution of malaria vectors under climate change is essential for planning integrated vector control activities for sustaining elimination and preventing reintroduction of malaria. In China, however, little knowledge exists on the possible effects of climate change on malaria vectors. Here we assess the potential impact of climate change on four dominant malaria vectors (An. dirus, An. minimus, An. lesteri and An. sinensis) using species distribution models for two future decades: the 2030 s and the 2050 s. Simulation-based estimates suggest that the environmentally suitable area (ESA) for An. dirus and An. minimus would increase by an average of 49% and 16%, respectively, under all three scenarios for the 2030 s, but decrease by 11% and 16%, respectively in the 2050 s. By contrast, an increase of 36% and 11%, respectively, in ESA of An. lesteri and An. sinensis, was estimated under medium stabilizing (RCP4.5) and very heavy (RCP8.5) emission scenarios. in the 2050 s. In total, we predict a substantial net increase in the population exposed to the four dominant malaria vectors in the decades of the 2030 s and 2050 s, considering land use changes and urbanization simultaneously. Strategies to achieve and sustain malaria elimination in China will need to account for these potential changes in vector distributions and receptivity.

  15. Effect of climate change on vector-borne disease risk in the UK.

    PubMed

    Medlock, Jolyon M; Leach, Steve A

    2015-06-01

    During the early part of the 21st century, an unprecedented change in the status of vector-borne disease in Europe has occurred. Invasive mosquitoes have become widely established across Europe, with subsequent transmission and outbreaks of dengue and chikungunya virus. Malaria has re-emerged in Greece, and West Nile virus has emerged throughout parts of eastern Europe. Tick-borne diseases, such as Lyme disease, continue to increase, or, in the case of tick-borne encephalitis and Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever viruses, have changed their geographical distribution. From a veterinary perspective, the emergence of Bluetongue and Schmallenberg viruses show that northern Europe is equally susceptible to transmission of vector-borne disease. These changes are in part due to increased globalisation, with intercontinental air travel and global shipping transport creating new opportunities for invasive vectors and pathogens. However, changes in vector distributions are being driven by climatic changes and changes in land use, infrastructure, and the environment. In this Review, we summarise the risks posed by vector-borne diseases in the present and the future from a UK perspective, and assess the likely effects of climate change and, where appropriate, climate-change adaptation strategies on vector-borne disease risk in the UK. Lessons from the outbreaks of West Nile virus in North America and chikungunya in the Caribbean emphasise the need to assess future vector-borne disease risks and prepare contingencies for future outbreaks. Ensuring that adaptation strategies for climate change do not inadvertently exacerbate risks should be a primary focus for decision makers.

  16. Effect of climate change on vector-borne disease risk in the UK.

    PubMed

    Medlock, Jolyon M; Leach, Steve A

    2015-06-01

    During the early part of the 21st century, an unprecedented change in the status of vector-borne disease in Europe has occurred. Invasive mosquitoes have become widely established across Europe, with subsequent transmission and outbreaks of dengue and chikungunya virus. Malaria has re-emerged in Greece, and West Nile virus has emerged throughout parts of eastern Europe. Tick-borne diseases, such as Lyme disease, continue to increase, or, in the case of tick-borne encephalitis and Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever viruses, have changed their geographical distribution. From a veterinary perspective, the emergence of Bluetongue and Schmallenberg viruses show that northern Europe is equally susceptible to transmission of vector-borne disease. These changes are in part due to increased globalisation, with intercontinental air travel and global shipping transport creating new opportunities for invasive vectors and pathogens. However, changes in vector distributions are being driven by climatic changes and changes in land use, infrastructure, and the environment. In this Review, we summarise the risks posed by vector-borne diseases in the present and the future from a UK perspective, and assess the likely effects of climate change and, where appropriate, climate-change adaptation strategies on vector-borne disease risk in the UK. Lessons from the outbreaks of West Nile virus in North America and chikungunya in the Caribbean emphasise the need to assess future vector-borne disease risks and prepare contingencies for future outbreaks. Ensuring that adaptation strategies for climate change do not inadvertently exacerbate risks should be a primary focus for decision makers. PMID:25808458

  17. A view from Minnesota: A changing climate for wind power

    SciTech Connect

    Noble, M.T.

    1997-12-31

    The author describes a program begun in Minnesota to address the problem of climate change and possible global warming. This projects aims at increasing understanding and appreciation of changes being seen in the US weather patterns and possible correlations with greenhouse gas emissions. Minnesota has taken a stance on mandating support for renewable power sources as a part of their electric utility mix. The author urges the business and industrial sectors of our economy to consider the impact on the US and its citizens of not supporting programs which are directed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, including support for wind power projects.

  18. Chemical ecology of animal and human pathogen vectors in a changing global climate.

    PubMed

    Pickett, John A; Birkett, Michael A; Dewhirst, Sarah Y; Logan, James G; Omolo, Maurice O; Torto, Baldwyn; Pelletier, Julien; Syed, Zainulabeuddin; Leal, Walter S

    2010-01-01

    Infectious diseases affecting livestock and human health that involve vector-borne pathogens are a global problem, unrestricted by borders or boundaries, which may be exacerbated by changing global climate. Thus, the availability of effective tools for control of pathogen vectors is of the utmost importance. The aim of this article is to review, selectively, current knowledge of the chemical ecology of pathogen vectors that affect livestock and human health in the developed and developing world, based on key note lectures presented in a symposium on "The Chemical Ecology of Disease Vectors" at the 25th Annual ISCE meeting in Neuchatel, Switzerland. The focus is on the deployment of semiochemicals for monitoring and control strategies, and discusses briefly future directions that such research should proceed along, bearing in mind the environmental challenges associated with climate change that we will face during the 21st century. PMID:20119869

  19. Full vector (3-D) inflow simulation in natural and wind farm environments using an expanded version of the SNLWIND (Veers) turbulence code

    SciTech Connect

    Kelley, N.D.

    1992-11-01

    We have recently expanded the numerical turbulence simulation (SNLWIND) developed by Veers [1] to include all three components of the turbulent wind vector. We have also configured the code to simulate the characteristics of turbulent wind fields upwind and downwind of a large wind farm, as well as over uniform, flat terrain. Veers`s original method only simulates the longitudinal component of the wind in neutral flow. This paper overviews the development of spectral distribution, spatial coherence, and cross correlation models used to expired the SNLWIND code to include the three components of the turbulent wind over a range of atmospheric stabilities. These models are based on extensive measurements of the turbulence characteristics immediately upwind and downwind of a large wind farm in San Gorgonio Pass, California.

  20. Full vector (3-D) inflow simulation in natural and wind farm environments using an expanded version of the SNLWIND (Veers) turbulence code

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kelley, N. D.

    1992-11-01

    We have recently expanded the numerical turbulence simulation (SNLWIND) developed by Veers to include all three components of the turbulent wind vector. We have also configured the code to simulate the characteristics of turbulent wind fields upwind and downwind of a large wind farm, as well as over uniform, flat terrain. Veers's original method only simulates the longitudinal component of the wind in neutral flow. This paper overviews the development of spectral distribution, spatial coherence, and cross correlation models used to expired the SNLWIND code to include the three components of the turbulent wind over a range of atmospheric stabilities. These models are based on extensive measurements of the turbulence characteristics immediately upwind and downwind of a large wind farm in San Gorgonio Pass, California.

  1. Microbiome changes through ontogeny of a tick pathogen vector.

    PubMed

    Zolnik, Christine P; Prill, Robert J; Falco, Richard C; Daniels, Thomas J; Kolokotronis, Sergios-Orestis

    2016-10-01

    Blacklegged ticks (Ixodes scapularis) are one of the most important pathogen vectors in the United States, responsible for transmitting Lyme disease and other tick-borne diseases. The structure of a host's microbial community has the potential to affect the ecology and evolution of the host. We employed high-throughput sequencing of the 16S rRNA gene V3-V4 hypervariable regions in the first study to investigate the tick microbiome across all developmental stages (larvae, nymphs, adults). In addition to field-collected life stages, newly hatched laboratory-reared larvae were studied to determine the baseline microbial community structure and to assess transovarial transmission. We also targeted midguts and salivary glands due to their importance in pathogen maintenance and transmission. Over 100 000 sequences were produced per life stage replicate. Rickettsia was the most abundant bacterial genus across all sample types matching mostly the Ixodes rickettsial endosymbionts, and its proportion decreased as developmental stage progressed, with the exception of adult females that harboured a mean relative abundance of 97.9%. Laboratory-reared larvae displayed the lowest bacterial diversity, containing almost exclusively Rickettsia. Many of the remaining bacteria included genera associated with soil, water and plants, suggesting environmental acquisition while off-host. Female organs exhibited significantly different β-diversity than the whole tick from which they were derived. Our results demonstrate clear differences in both α- and β-diversity among tick developmental stages and between tick organs and the tick as a whole. Furthermore, field-acquired bacteria appear to be very important to the overall internal bacterial community of this tick species, with influence from the host bloodmeal appearing limited. PMID:27588381

  2. Study of vegetation index selection and changing detection thresholds in land cover change detection assessment using change vector analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nguyen, Duy; Tran, Giang

    2012-07-01

    In recent years, Vietnamese rapidly developing economy has led to speedy changes in land cover. The study of changing detection of land cover plays an important role in making the strategy of the managers. There are two main approaches in changing detection research by using remote sensing and GIS: post- classification change detection analysis approach and pre-classification changing spectral determination approach. Each has their own different advantages and disadvantages. The second one is further divided into: Image Differencing, Multi-date Principal Component Analysis (MPCA); Change Vector Analysis (CVA). In this study, researchers introduce CVA method. This method is based on two important index to show the primary feature of land cover, such as: vegetation index (NDVI-) and barren land index (-BI). Ability to apply methods of CVA has been mentioned in the studies [1, 2, 3, and 4]. However, in these studies did not mention the NDVI index selection and changing detection threshold in changing detection assessment? This paper proposes application to solve these two problems.

  3. Global climatology of the wind vector rotation - implications for the orographic gravity waves propagation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pisoft, Petr; Sacha, Petr; Kuchar, Ales

    2015-04-01

    The gravity waves spectrum is shaped not only by different sources but it also reflects tropospheric background conditions contributing to filtering of various gravity waves. This could be most easily illustrated for the propagation of the orographic gravity waves that are critically filtered when the wind speed is zero. This condition is ensured in case of the directional shear exceeding 180°. Above regions where it is fulfilled, one can rule out the possibility of orographic GW modes contributing to the observed GW activity and vice versa regions of small wind rotation in the lower levels are often precursors of enhanced GW activity higher. In this study, we have performed a global analysis of the background conditions with a focus on the rotation of the ground level winds. We have analyzed MERRA and JRA-55 time series. The results provided climatology of atmospheric regions with the conditions favorable for the upward propagation of the orographic gravity waves from the troposphere into the stratosphere. The regions are detected mainly over areas where tropospheric and stratospheric jets coincide. The study is supplemented by a global analysis of the fields of potential energy of disturbances as a proxy for gravity waves activity using COSMIC GPS RO data.

  4. Polarimetric passive microwave remote sensing of wind vectors with foam-covered rough ocean surfaces

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Lin; Tsang, Leung; Chen, Dong

    2003-08-01

    In this paper, polarimetric microwave emissions from wind-generated foam-covered ocean surfaces are investigated. The foam is treated as densely packed air bubbles coated with thin seawater coating. The absorption, scattering and extinction coefficients are calculated by Monte Carlo simulations of solutions of Maxwell equations of a collection of coated particles. The effects of boundary roughness of ocean surface are included by using the second-order small perturbation method (SPM) describing the reflection coefficients between foam and ocean. An empirical wavenumber spectrum is used to represent the small-scale wind-generated sea surfaces. The iterative method is employed to solve dense media radiative transfer (DMRT) equations, and is applied to calculate results of all four Stokes parameters of rough ocean surfaces. The theoretical results of four Stokes brightness temperatures with typical parameters of foam in passive remote sensing at 10.8 GHz, 19 GHz and 36.5 GHz are illustrated. The azimuth variations of polarimetric brightness temperature are calculated. Emission with various wind speed and foam layer thickness is studied. The results are also compared with those based on Quasi-Crystalline Approximation (QCA).

  5. Characteristics of wind velocity and temperature change near an escarpment-shaped road embankment.

    PubMed

    Kim, Young-Moon; You, Ki-Pyo; You, Jang-Youl

    2014-01-01

    Artificial structures such as embankments built during the construction of highways influence the surrounding airflow. Various types of damage can occur due to changes in the wind velocity and temperature around highway embankments. However, no study has accurately measured micrometeorological changes (wind velocity and temperature) due to embankments. This study conducted a wind tunnel test and field measurement to identify changes in wind velocity and temperature before and after the construction of embankments around roads. Changes in wind velocity around an embankment after its construction were found to be influenced by the surrounding wind velocity, wind angle, and the level difference and distance from the embankment. When the level difference from the embankment was large and the distance was up to 3H, the degree of wind velocity declines was found to be large. In changes in reference wind velocities around the embankment, wind velocity increases were not proportional to the rate at which wind velocities declined. The construction of the embankment influenced surrounding temperatures. The degree of temperature change was large in locations with large level differences from the embankment at daybreak and during evening hours when wind velocity changes were small.

  6. Characteristics of Wind Velocity and Temperature Change Near an Escarpment-Shaped Road Embankment

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Young-Moon; You, Ki-Pyo; You, Jang-Youl

    2014-01-01

    Artificial structures such as embankments built during the construction of highways influence the surrounding airflow. Various types of damage can occur due to changes in the wind velocity and temperature around highway embankments. However, no study has accurately measured micrometeorological changes (wind velocity and temperature) due to embankments. This study conducted a wind tunnel test and field measurement to identify changes in wind velocity and temperature before and after the construction of embankments around roads. Changes in wind velocity around an embankment after its construction were found to be influenced by the surrounding wind velocity, wind angle, and the level difference and distance from the embankment. When the level difference from the embankment was large and the distance was up to 3H, the degree of wind velocity declines was found to be large. In changes in reference wind velocities around the embankment, wind velocity increases were not proportional to the rate at which wind velocities declined. The construction of the embankment influenced surrounding temperatures. The degree of temperature change was large in locations with large level differences from the embankment at daybreak and during evening hours when wind velocity changes were small. PMID:25136681

  7. Monte Carlo studies of ocean wind vector measurements by SCATT: Objective criteria and maximum likelihood estimates for removal of aliases, and effects of cell size on accuracy of vector winds

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pierson, W. J.

    1982-01-01

    The scatterometer on the National Oceanic Satellite System (NOSS) is studied by means of Monte Carlo techniques so as to determine the effect of two additional antennas for alias (or ambiguity) removal by means of an objective criteria technique and a normalized maximum likelihood estimator. Cells nominally 10 km by 10 km, 10 km by 50 km, and 50 km by 50 km are simulated for winds of 4, 8, 12 and 24 m/s and incidence angles of 29, 39, 47, and 53.5 deg for 15 deg changes in direction. The normalized maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) is correct a large part of the time, but the objective criterion technique is recommended as a reserve, and more quickly computed, procedure. Both methods for alias removal depend on the differences in the present model function at upwind and downwind. For 10 km by 10 km cells, it is found that the MLE method introduces a correlation between wind speed errors and aspect angle (wind direction) errors that can be as high as 0.8 or 0.9 and that the wind direction errors are unacceptably large, compared to those obtained for the SASS for similar assumptions.

  8. Impact to Space Shuttle Vehicle Trajectory on Day of Launch from change in Low Frequency Winds

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Decker, Ryan K.; Puperi, Daniel; Leach, Richard

    2007-01-01

    The National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Space Shuttle utilizes atmospheric winds on day of launch to develop throttle and steering commands to best optimize vehicle performance while keeping structural loading on the vehicle within limits. The steering commands and resultant trajectory are influenced by both the high and low frequency component of the wind. However, the low frequency component has a greater effect on the ascent design. Change in the low frequency wind content from the time of trajectory design until launch can induce excessive loading on the vehicle. Wind change limits have been derived to protect from launching in an environment where these temporal changes occur. Process of developing wind change limits are discussed followed by an observational study of temporal wind change in low frequency wind profiles at the NASA's Kennedy Space Center area are presented.

  9. A Delay Vector Variance based Marker for an Output-Only Assessment of Structural Changes in Tension Leg Platforms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jaksic, V.; Wright, C.; Mandic, D. P.; Murphy, J.; Pakrashi, V.

    2015-07-01

    Although aspects of power generation of many offshore renewable devices are well understood, their dynamic responses under high wind and wave conditions are still to be investigated to a great detail. Output only statistical markers are important for these offshore devices, since access to the device is limited and information about the exposure conditions and the true behaviour of the devices are generally partial, limited, and vague or even absent. The markers can summarise and characterise the behaviour of these devices from their dynamic response available as time series data. The behaviour may be linear or nonlinear and consequently a marker that can track the changes in structural situations can be quite important. These markers can then be helpful in assessing the current condition of the structure and can indicate possible intervention, monitoring or assessment. This paper considers a Delay Vector Variance based marker for changes in a tension leg platform tested in an ocean wave basin for structural changes brought about by single column dampers. The approach is based on dynamic outputs of the device alone and is based on the estimation of the nonlinearity of the output signal. The advantages of the selected marker and its response with changing structural properties are discussed. The marker is observed to be important for monitoring the as- deployed structural condition and is sensitive to changes in such conditions. Influence of exposure conditions of wave loading is also discussed in this study based only on experimental data.

  10. Climate Change and Vector Borne Diseases on NASA Langley Research Center

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cole, Stuart K.; DeYoung, Russell J.; Shepanek, Marc A.; Kamel, Ahmed

    2014-01-01

    Increasing global temperature, weather patterns with above average storm intensities, and higher sea levels have been identified as phenomena associated with global climate change. As a causal system, climate change could contribute to vector borne diseases in humans. Vectors of concern originate from the vicinity of Langley Research Center include mosquitos and ticks that transmit disease that originate regionally, nationwide, or from outside the US. Recognizing changing conditions, vector borne diseases propagate under climate change conditions, and understanding the conditions in which they may exist or propagate, presents opportunities for monitoring their progress and mitigating their potential impacts through communication, continued monitoring, and adaptation. Personnel comprise a direct and fundamental support to NASA mission success, continuous and improved understanding of climatic conditions, and the resulting consequence of disease from these conditions, helps to reduce risk in terrestrial space technologies, ground operations, and space research. This research addresses conditions which are attributed to climatic conditions which promote environmental conditions conducive to the increase of disease vectors. This investigation includes evaluation of local mosquito population count and rainfall data for statistical correlation and identification of planning recommendations unique to LaRC, other NASA Centers to assess adaptation approaches, Center-level planning strategies.

  11. Assessment of changes of vector borne diseases with wetland characteristics using multivariate analysis.

    PubMed

    Sheela, A M; Sarun, S; Justus, J; Vineetha, P; Sheeja, R V

    2015-04-01

    Vector borne diseases are a threat to human health. Little attention has been paid to the prevention of these diseases. We attempted to identify the significant wetland characteristics associated with the spread of chikungunya, dengue fever and malaria in Kerala, a tropical region of South West India using multivariate analyses (hierarchical cluster analysis, factor analysis and multiple regression). High/medium turbid coastal lagoons and inland water-logged wetlands with aquatic vegetation have significant effect on the incidence of chikungunya while dengue influenced by high turbid coastal beaches and malaria by medium turbid coastal beaches. The high turbidity in water is due to the urban waste discharge namely sewage, sullage and garbage from the densely populated cities and towns. The large extent of wetland is low land area favours the occurrence of vector borne diseases. Hence the provision of pollution control measures at source including soil erosion control measures is vital. The identification of vulnerable zones favouring the vector borne diseases will help the authorities to control pollution especially from urban areas and prevent these vector borne diseases. Future research should cover land use cover changes, climatic factors, seasonal variations in weather and pollution factors favouring the occurrence of vector borne diseases. PMID:25412801

  12. Assessment of changes of vector borne diseases with wetland characteristics using multivariate analysis.

    PubMed

    Sheela, A M; Sarun, S; Justus, J; Vineetha, P; Sheeja, R V

    2015-04-01

    Vector borne diseases are a threat to human health. Little attention has been paid to the prevention of these diseases. We attempted to identify the significant wetland characteristics associated with the spread of chikungunya, dengue fever and malaria in Kerala, a tropical region of South West India using multivariate analyses (hierarchical cluster analysis, factor analysis and multiple regression). High/medium turbid coastal lagoons and inland water-logged wetlands with aquatic vegetation have significant effect on the incidence of chikungunya while dengue influenced by high turbid coastal beaches and malaria by medium turbid coastal beaches. The high turbidity in water is due to the urban waste discharge namely sewage, sullage and garbage from the densely populated cities and towns. The large extent of wetland is low land area favours the occurrence of vector borne diseases. Hence the provision of pollution control measures at source including soil erosion control measures is vital. The identification of vulnerable zones favouring the vector borne diseases will help the authorities to control pollution especially from urban areas and prevent these vector borne diseases. Future research should cover land use cover changes, climatic factors, seasonal variations in weather and pollution factors favouring the occurrence of vector borne diseases.

  13. Evidence that implicit assumptions of 'no evolution' of disease vectors in changing environments can be violated on a rapid timescale.

    PubMed

    Egizi, Andrea; Fefferman, Nina H; Fonseca, Dina M

    2015-04-01

    Projected impacts of climate change on vector-borne disease dynamics must consider many variables relevant to hosts, vectors and pathogens, including how altered environmental characteristics might affect the spatial distributions of vector species. However, many predictive models for vector distributions consider their habitat requirements to be fixed over relevant time-scales, when they may actually be capable of rapid evolutionary change and even adaptation. We examine the genetic signature of a spatial expansion by an invasive vector into locations with novel temperature conditions compared to its native range as a proxy for how existing vector populations may respond to temporally changing habitat. Specifically, we compare invasions into different climate ranges and characterize the importance of selection from the invaded habitat. We demonstrate that vector species can exhibit evolutionary responses (altered allelic frequencies) to a temperature gradient in as little as 7-10 years even in the presence of high gene flow, and further, that this response varies depending on the strength of selection. We interpret these findings in the context of climate change predictions for vector populations and emphasize the importance of incorporating vector evolution into models of future vector-borne disease dynamics. PMID:25688024

  14. Impacts of past and future climate change on wind energy resources in the United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McCaa, J. R.; Wood, A.; Eichelberger, S.; Westrick, K.

    2009-12-01

    The links between climate change and trends in wind energy resources have important potential implications for the wind energy industry, and have received significant attention in recent studies. We have conducted two studies that provide insights into the potential for climate change to affect future wind power production. In one experiment, we projected changes in power capacity for a hypothetical wind farm located near Kennewick, Washington, due to greenhouse gas-induced climate change, estimated using a set of regional climate model simulations. Our results show that the annual wind farm power capacity is projected to decrease 1.3% by 2050. In a wider study focusing on wind speed instead of power, we analyzed projected changes in wind speed from 14 different climate simulations that were performed in support of the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4). Our results show that the predicted ensemble mean changes in annual mean wind speeds are expected to be modest. However, seasonal changes and changes predicted by individual models are large enough to affect the profitability of existing and future wind projects. The majority of the model simulations reveal that near-surface wind speed values are expected to shift poleward in response to the IPCC A2 emission scenario, particularly during the winter season. In the United States, most models agree that the mean annual wind speed values will increase in a region extending from the Great Lakes southward across the Midwest and into Texas. Decreased values, though, are predicted across most of the western United States. However, these predicted changes have a strong seasonal dependence, with wind speed increases over most of the United States during the winter and decreases over the northern United States during the summer.

  15. Climate Change and Aedes Vectors: 21st Century Projections for Dengue Transmission in Europe.

    PubMed

    Liu-Helmersson, Jing; Quam, Mikkel; Wilder-Smith, Annelies; Stenlund, Hans; Ebi, Kristie; Massad, Eduardo; Rocklöv, Joacim

    2016-05-01

    Warming temperatures may increase the geographic spread of vector-borne diseases into temperate areas. Although a tropical mosquito-borne viral disease, a dengue outbreak occurred in Madeira, Portugal, in 2012; the first in Europe since 1920s. This outbreak emphasizes the potential for dengue re-emergence in Europe given changing climates. We present estimates of dengue epidemic potential using vectorial capacity (VC) based on historic and projected temperature (1901-2099). VC indicates the vectors' ability to spread disease among humans. We calculated temperature-dependent VC for Europe, highlighting 10 European cities and three non-European reference cities. Compared with the tropics, Europe shows pronounced seasonality and geographical heterogeneity. Although low, VC during summer is currently sufficient for dengue outbreaks in Southern Europe to commence-if sufficient vector populations (either Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus) were active and virus were introduced. Under various climate change scenarios, the seasonal peak and time window for dengue epidemic potential increases during the 21st century. Our study maps dengue epidemic potential in Europe and identifies seasonal time windows when major cities are most conducive for dengue transmission from 1901 to 2099. Our findings illustrate, that besides vector control, mitigating greenhouse gas emissions crucially reduces the future epidemic potential of dengue in Europe.

  16. Climate Change and Aedes Vectors: 21st Century Projections for Dengue Transmission in Europe.

    PubMed

    Liu-Helmersson, Jing; Quam, Mikkel; Wilder-Smith, Annelies; Stenlund, Hans; Ebi, Kristie; Massad, Eduardo; Rocklöv, Joacim

    2016-05-01

    Warming temperatures may increase the geographic spread of vector-borne diseases into temperate areas. Although a tropical mosquito-borne viral disease, a dengue outbreak occurred in Madeira, Portugal, in 2012; the first in Europe since 1920s. This outbreak emphasizes the potential for dengue re-emergence in Europe given changing climates. We present estimates of dengue epidemic potential using vectorial capacity (VC) based on historic and projected temperature (1901-2099). VC indicates the vectors' ability to spread disease among humans. We calculated temperature-dependent VC for Europe, highlighting 10 European cities and three non-European reference cities. Compared with the tropics, Europe shows pronounced seasonality and geographical heterogeneity. Although low, VC during summer is currently sufficient for dengue outbreaks in Southern Europe to commence-if sufficient vector populations (either Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus) were active and virus were introduced. Under various climate change scenarios, the seasonal peak and time window for dengue epidemic potential increases during the 21st century. Our study maps dengue epidemic potential in Europe and identifies seasonal time windows when major cities are most conducive for dengue transmission from 1901 to 2099. Our findings illustrate, that besides vector control, mitigating greenhouse gas emissions crucially reduces the future epidemic potential of dengue in Europe. PMID:27322480

  17. Pressure distribution on a vectored-thrust V/STOL fighter in the transition-speed range. [wind tunnel tests to measure pressure distribution on body and wing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mineck, R. E.; Margason, R. J.

    1974-01-01

    A wind-tunnel investigation has been conducted in the Langley V/STOL tunnel with a vectored-thrust V/STOL fighter configuration to obtain detailed pressure measurements on the body and on the wing in the transition-speed range. The vectored-thrust jet exhaust induced a region of negative pressure coefficients on the lower surface of the wing and on the bottom of the fuselage. The location of the jet exhaust relative to the wing was a major factor in determining the extent of the region of negative pressure coefficients.

  18. Projected Future Distributions of Vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi in North America under Climate Change Scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Garza, Miroslava; Feria Arroyo, Teresa Patricia; Casillas, Edgar A.; Sanchez-Cordero, Victor; Rivaldi, Chissa-Louise; Sarkar, Sahotra

    2014-01-01

    Background Chagas disease kills approximately 45 thousand people annually and affects 10 million people in Latin America and the southern United States. The parasite that causes the disease, Trypanosoma cruzi, can be transmitted by insects of the family Reduviidae, subfamily Triatominae. Any study that attempts to evaluate risk for Chagas disease must focus on the ecology and biogeography of these vectors. Expected distributional shifts of vector species due to climate change are likely to alter spatial patterns of risk of Chagas disease, presumably through northward expansion of high risk areas in North America. Methodology/Principal Findings We forecast the future (2050) distributions in North America of Triatoma gerstaeckeri and T. sanguisuga, two of the most common triatomine species and important vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi in the southern United States. Our aim was to analyze how climate change might affect the future shift of Chagas disease in North America using a maximum entropy algorithm to predict changes in suitable habitat based on vector occurrence points and predictive environmental variables. Projections based on three different general circulation models (CCCMA, CSIRO, and HADCM3) and two IPCC scenarios (A2 and B2) were analyzed. Twenty models were developed for each case and evaluated via cross-validation. The final model averages result from all twenty of these models. All models had AUC >0.90, which indicates that the models are robust. Our results predict a potential northern shift in the distribution of T. gerstaeckeri and a northern and southern distributional shift of T. sanguisuga from its current range due to climate change. Conclusions/Significance The results of this study provide baseline information for monitoring the northward shift of potential risk from Chagas disease in the face of climate change. PMID:24831117

  19. Regional and seasonal response of a West Nile virus vector to climate change.

    PubMed

    Morin, Cory W; Comrie, Andrew C

    2013-09-24

    Climate change will affect the abundance and seasonality of West Nile virus (WNV) vectors, altering the risk of virus transmission to humans. Using downscaled general circulation model output, we calculate a WNV vector's response to climate change across the southern United States using process-based modeling. In the eastern United States, Culex quinquefasciatus response to projected climate change displays a latitudinal and elevational gradient. Projected summer population depressions as a result of increased immature mortality and habitat drying are most severe in the south and almost absent further north; extended spring and fall survival is ubiquitous. Much of California also exhibits a bimodal pattern. Projected onset of mosquito season is delayed in the southwestern United States because of extremely dry and hot spring and summers; however, increased temperature and late summer and fall rains extend the mosquito season. These results are unique in being a broad-scale calculation of the projected impacts of climate change on a WNV vector. The results show that, despite projected widespread future warming, the future seasonal response of C. quinquefasciatus populations across the southern United States will not be homogeneous, and will depend on specific combinations of local and regional conditions.

  20. The Learning Process and Technological Change in Wind Power: Evidence from China's CDM Wind Projects

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tang, Tian; Popp, David

    2016-01-01

    The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) is a project-based carbon trade mechanism that subsidizes the users of climate-friendly technologies and encourages technology transfer. The CDM has provided financial support for a large share of Chinese wind projects since 2002. Using pooled cross-sectional data of 486 registered CDM wind projects in China…

  1. Projected changes in the annual wind-wave cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stopa, Justin; Hemer, Mark

    2016-04-01

    The uneven distribution of the sun's energy directly and indirectly drives physical atmosphere and ocean processes. This creates intricate spatial patterns within the seasonal cycle where higher order harmonics are seen to play an important role in regional climates. The annual cycle and associated harmonics are the strongest oscillations within the climate system and describe the majority of variance across the oceans. Consequently when studying climate oscillations, it is common practice to remove the seasonal cycle in order to elucidate inter-annual cycles. Furthermore the annual cycle plays an important role in the evolution of other inter-annual oscillations through non-linear coupling (e.g ENSO). Despite the important role of the seasons within the climate system very few studies describe the seasonality with any rigor. Therefore our focus is to describe the higher harmonics linked to the annual cycle and how they are expected to evolve in a changing climate. Using simulations from the Coordinated Ocean Wave Climate Project, the seasonality of multiple mid and end of the 21st century wind-wave climate projections are analyzed relative to historical experiment forced simulations. A comparison of various GCM forced wave simulations to reanalysis datasets reveals that a multi-model ensemble best describes the seasons. This ensemble is used to describe the changes within the wave seasonality. A systematic analysis reveals the primary mode of the seasons is relatively unchanged in the mid and end century. The largest changes occur in the second and third modes. The second mode defines the shift or translation within the seasons while the third mode characterizes relative change between the seasonal extremes (ie sharpening or flattening of the waveform). The relative changes in the second and third modes are not homogeneous and intricate patterns are revealed. Certain regions have sharper contrast in seasonality while other regions have a longer strong season. In

  2. Projection of Climate Change Influences on U.S. West Nile Virus Vectors

    PubMed Central

    Brown, Heidi E.; Young, Alex; Lega, Joceline; Andreadis, Theodore G.; Schurich, Jessica; Comrie, Andrew

    2015-01-01

    While estimates of the impact of climate change on health are necessary for health care planners and climate change policy makers, models to produce quantitative estimates remain scarce. We describe a freely available dynamic simulation model parameterized for three West Nile virus vectors, which provides an effective tool for studying vector-borne disease risk due to climate change. The Dynamic Mosquito Simulation Model is parameterized with species specific temperature-dependent development and mortality rates. Using downscaled daily weather data, we estimate mosquito population dynamics under current and projected future climate scenarios for multiple locations across the country. Trends in mosquito abundance were variable by location, however, an extension of the vector activity periods, and by extension disease risk, was almost uniformly observed. Importantly, mid-summer decreases in abundance may be off-set by shorter extrinsic incubation periods resulting in a greater proportion of infective mosquitoes. Quantitative descriptions of the effect of temperature on the virus and mosquito are critical to developing models of future disease risk. PMID:27057131

  3. Robust Change Vector Analysis (RCVA) for multi-sensor very high resolution optical satellite data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thonfeld, Frank; Feilhauer, Hannes; Braun, Matthias; Menz, Gunter

    2016-08-01

    The analysis of rapid land cover/land use changes by means of remote sensing is often based on data acquired under varying and occasionally unfavorable conditions. In addition, such analyses frequently use data acquired by different sensor systems. These acquisitions often differ with respect to sun position and sensor viewing geometry which lead to characteristic effects in each image. These differences may have a negative impact on reliable change detection. Here, we propose an approach called Robust Change Vector Analysis (RCVA), aiming to mitigate these effects. RCVA is an improvement of the widely-used Change Vector Analysis (CVA), developed to account for pixel neighborhood effects. We used a RapidEye and Kompsat-2 cross-sensor change detection test to demonstrate the efficiency of RCVA. Our analysis showed that RCVA results in fewer false negatives as well as false positives when compared to CVA under similar test conditions. We conclude that RCVA is a powerful technique which can be utilized to reduce spurious changes in bi-temporal change detection analyses based on high- or very-high spatial resolution imagery.

  4. Changing distribution patterns of canine vector borne diseases in Italy: leishmaniosis vs. dirofilariosis

    PubMed Central

    Otranto, Domenico; Capelli, Gioia; Genchi, Claudio

    2009-01-01

    Ecological and climatic changes, human and animal population dynamics are among the several factors that have favoured the spread or the (re)introduction and establishment of "novel" vector species and pathogens they transmit in previously disease-free geographical areas. As key examples of the changing pattern of distribution of canine vector borne diseases (CVBDs), the current distribution of canine leishmaniosis (CanL) by Leishmania infantum and dirofilariosis by Dirofilaria immitis causing heart worm disease (HW) in Italy is discussed on the basis of retrospective historical reports until the 90's and later on until 2009. For long time, D. immitis has been considered mainly present along the Po River Valley and northward areas, while L. infantum in south-central Italy and Sicily and Sardinia. Comparison of current available and historical data (up to 1989) confirms that HW and CanL, although with different prevalence rates, have been changing their distribution patterns in Italy as a result of many biological and ecological factors, including those related to vector distribution and introduction of new species (e.g. the Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus, a competent vector of D. immitis). New autochthonous foci of HW in southern Italy (i.e. Apulia and Calabria regions) have recently been reported. Although analysing retrospective data may represent a difficult task, the "paradigm" about the dual distribution of HW and CanL in northern and southern Italy cannot yet be considered valid. The research needs for managing HW and CanL in previously uninfected areas are discussed. PMID:19426441

  5. Climate Change, Public Health, and Decision Support: The New Threat of Vector-borne Disease

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grant, F.; Kumar, S.

    2011-12-01

    Climate change and vector-borne diseases constitute a massive threat to human development. It will not be enough to cut emissions of greenhouse gases-the tide of the future has already been established. Climate change and vector-borne diseases are already undermining the world's efforts to reduce extreme poverty. It is in the best interests of the world leaders to think in terms of concerted global actions, but adaptation and mitigation must be accomplished within the context of local community conditions, resources, and needs. Failure to act will continue to consign developed countries to completely avoidable health risks and significant expense. Failure to act will also reduce poorest of the world's population-some 2.6 billion people-to a future of diminished opportunity. Northrop Grumman has taken significant steps forward to develop the tools needed to assess climate change impacts on public health, collect relevant data for decision making, model projections at regional and local levels; and, deliver information and knowledge to local and regional stakeholders. Supporting these tools is an advanced enterprise architecture consisting of high performance computing, GIS visualization, and standards-based architecture. To address current deficiencies in local planning and decision making with respect to regional climate change and its effect on human health, our research is focused on performing a dynamical downscaling with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to develop decision aids that translate the regional climate data into actionable information for users. For the present climate WRF was forced with the Max Planck Institute European Center/Hamburg Model version 5 (ECHAM5) General Circulation Model 20th century simulation. For the 21th century climate, we used an ECHAM5 simulation with the Special Report on Emissions (SRES) A1B emissions scenario. WRF was run in nested mode at spatial resolution of 108 km, 36 km and 12 km and 28 vertical levels

  6. Impact of climate change in the epidemiology of vector-borne diseases in domestic carnivores.

    PubMed

    Beugnet, F; Chalvet-Monfray, K

    2013-12-01

    Vector-borne diseases are medically important in humans and animals but were long considered tropical and known to first affect production animals. This is no longer true and we can see today that they are common in domestic animals and that they are also present in temperate countries, especially in Europe. In recent years, an increase in the diagnosis of vector borne diseases among humans and animals has been observed, which may partly due to the development of diagnostic tools. Their study requires exchanges and collaborations between the many actors involved, especially since the epidemiology seems to be constantly evolving. The veterinary practitioner is the first one to notice the emergence of cases and to implement prevention measures. He also acts as a sentinel to alert epidemiologists. Many factors can explain the epidemiological changes, i.e. all human factors, such as the increase in commercial transportation, but also owners traveling with their pet during the holidays, the development of "outdoor" activities, the increase of individual housings with gardens; to these human factors must be added the ignorance of the risks, linked to animals in general and to wildlife in particular; then the environmental changes: forest fragmentation, establishment of parks; the increase of wild mammal populations (deer, carnivores, rodents, etc.); finally, climate changes. Climate change is a reality which may explain the increase of density of arthropod vectors, but also of their hosts, changes in periods of activity and variations in geographical distribution. The authors show the proof of the climate modifications and then explain how it has an impact in Europe on ticks, mosquitoes, sandflies and even fleas. They conclude on the practical consequences for veterinary practitioners, especially with the diagnosis of parasitic diseases or diseases in areas where they usually do not occur. However, not any epidemiological modification should be linked to climate change

  7. The impact of climate change on the U.S. wind energy resource

    SciTech Connect

    Daniel Kirk-Davidoff; Daniel Barrie

    2013-03-19

    The growing need for low-carbon emitting electricity sources has resulted in rapid growth in the wind power industry. The size and steadiness of the offshore wind resource has attracted growing investment in the planning of offshore wind turbine installations. Decisions about the location and character of wind farms should be made with an eye not only to present but also future wind resource, which may change as increasing carbon dioxide forces reductions in the poleward temperature gradient, and thus potentially in the mean tropospheric westerly winds. I propose to use the new North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program climate projections to estimate the change of the wind power resource under various carbon dioxide loading scenarios and for a range of climate models. We will compare our assessment with both our assessment based on the IPCC AR4 model runs, to explore the extent to which improved model resolution changes the prediction for the wind power resource, and with present day estimates from reanalysis and scatterometer winds.

  8. Changing photospheric vector magnetic fields associated with a B4.2-class solar flare

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Su, Jiangtao; Liu, Yu; Shen, Yuandeng

    2013-07-01

    Recent observations have provided evidence that the solar photospheric magnetic fields could have rapid and permanent changes in both longitudinal and transverse components associated with large (X- or M-class) solar flares. However, few observations have been reported about small flares. In this paper we find the observational evidence of changing photospheric vector magnetic fields associated with a B4.2-class flare obtained with the Solar Magnetic Field Telescope (SMFT) installed at Huairou Solar Observing Station (HSOS) of Nation Astronomical Observatories of Chinese Academy of Sciences.

  9. Wind shear measuring on board an airliner

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Krauspe, P.

    1984-01-01

    A measurement technique which continuously determines the wind vector on board an airliner during takeoff and landing is introduced. Its implementation is intended to deliver sufficient statistical background concerning low frequency wind changes in the atmospheric boundary layer and extended knowledge about deterministic wind shear modeling. The wind measurement scheme is described and the adaptation of apparatus onboard an A300 airbus is shown. Preliminary measurements made during level flight demonstrate the validity of the method.

  10. Metabolic changes in rat urine after acute paraquat poisoning and discriminated by support vector machine.

    PubMed

    Wen, Congcong; Wang, Zhiyi; Zhang, Meiling; Wang, Shuanghu; Geng, Peiwu; Sun, Fa; Chen, Mengchun; Lin, Guanyang; Hu, Lufeng; Ma, Jianshe; Wang, Xianqin

    2016-01-01

    Paraquat is quick-acting and non-selective, killing green plant tissue on contact; it is also toxic to human beings and animals. In this study, we developed a urine metabonomic method by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry to evaluate the effect of acute paraquat poisoning on rats. Pattern recognition analysis, including both partial least squares discriminate analysis and principal component analysis revealed that acute paraquat poisoning induced metabolic perturbations. Compared with the control group, the levels of benzeneacetic acid and hexadecanoic acid of the acute paraquat poisoning group (intragastric administration 36 mg/kg) increased, while the levels of butanedioic acid, pentanedioic acid, altronic acid decreased. Based on these urinary metabolomics data, support vector machine was applied to discriminate the metabolomic change of paraquat groups from the control group, which achieved 100% classification accuracy. In conclusion, metabonomic method combined with support vector machine can be used as a useful diagnostic tool in paraquat-poisoned rats.

  11. Lunar nitrogen - Evidence for secular change in the solar wind

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Clayton, R. N.; Thiemens, M. H.

    1980-01-01

    The lunar soil is an efficient trap for nitrogen in the solar wind. The concentration of nitrogen in lunar soils implies a flux of solar wind at least three times greater than that which is observed today. The implication is that the present-day flux is anomalously low. Soil samples from drill cores, and soil breccias excavated from buried levels of the regolith provide samples of ancient solar wind. From these samples it is apparent that the N-15/N-14 ratio in the solar wind has undergone a monotonic secular increase over the last 2.5 billion years, at a rate of about 15% per billion years. Nuclear reactions in the sun appear to be the most likely cause of the variation.

  12. OBSERVATIONAL EVIDENCE OF CHANGING PHOTOSPHERIC VECTOR MAGNETIC FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH SOLAR FLARES

    SciTech Connect

    Su, J. T.; Jing, J.; Wang, H. M.; Mao, X. J.; Wang, X. F.; Zhang, H. Q.; Deng, Y. Y.; Guo, J.; Wang, G. P.

    2011-06-01

    Recent observations have provided evidence that the solar photospheric magnetic fields could have rapid and permanent changes in both longitudinal and transverse components associated with major flares. As a result, the Lorentz force (LF) acting on the solar photosphere and solar interior could be perturbed, and the change of LF is always nearly in the downward direction. However, these rapid and permanent changes have not been systematically investigated, yet, using vector magnetograms. In this paper, we analyze photospheric vector magnetograms covering five flares to study the evolution of photospheric magnetic fields. In particular, we investigate two-dimensional spatial distributions of the changing LF. Around the major flaring polarity inversion line, the net change of the LF is directed downward in an area of {approx}10{sup 19} cm{sup 2} for X-class flares. For all events, the white-light observations show that sunspots darken in this location after flares, and magnetic fields become more inclined, which is consistent with the ideas put forward by Hudson et al. and Fisher et al., and observations.

  13. Quantifying changes in the bone microarchitecture using Minkowski-functionals and scaling vectors: a comparative study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raeth, Christoph W.; Mueller, Dirk; Link, Thomas M.; Boehm, Holger; Monetti, Roberto

    2006-03-01

    Osteoporosis is a metabolic bone disease leading to de-mineralization and increased risk of fracture. The two major factors that determine the biomechanical competence of bone are the degree of mineralization and the micro-architectural integrity. Today, modern imaging modalities exist that allow to depict structural details of trabecular bone tissue. Recently, non-linear techniques in 2D and 3D based on the scaling vector method (SVM) and the Minkowski functionals (MF) have been introduced, which show excellent performance in predicting bone strength and fracture risk. However, little is known about the performance of the various parameters with respect to monitoring structural changes due to progression of osteoporosis or as a result of medical treatment. We test and compare the two methodologies using realistic two-dimensional simulations of bone structures, which model the effect of osteoblasts and osteoclasts on the local change of relative bone density. Different realizations with slightly varying control parameters are considered. Our results show that even small changes in the trabecular structures, which are induced by variation of a control parameter of the system, become discernible by applying both the MF and the locally adapted scaling vector method. The results obtained with SVM are superior to those obtained with the Minkowski functionals. An additive combination of both measures drastically increases the sensitivity to slight changes in bone structures. These findings may be especially important for monitoring the treatment of patients, where the early recognition of (drug-induced) changes in the trabecular structure is crucial.

  14. Recent tax law changes create new opportunities for leasing wind energy property

    SciTech Connect

    Schutzer, George J.

    2010-01-15

    Recent changes in tax law make leveraged lease transactions far more attractive on paper than they were before the changes. However, changes in the economy and the financial industry and other changes in law counterbalance the favorable tax law changes and make it uncertain whether lease transactions will be used to finance new wind facilities. (author)

  15. North Sea wind climate in changing weather regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anders, Ivonne; Rockel, Burkhardt

    2015-04-01

    Results from regional climate models (RCMs) are getting more and more important in future wind climate assessment. From RCMs often only the daily wind speed is available, but no information on prevailing wind direction of each day. Weather regime classification can close this gap and models ability of simulating surface wind speed can be analysed in detail. Several objective regime classifications have been investigated to be a sufficient diagnostic tool to evaluate the present wind climate at the German and Dutch coastal area of the North Sea. The classification by Jenkinson and Collison (1977) uses values for mean sea level pressure at 16 locations centered over the North Sea. Beside the predefined 8 prevailed wind directions and the two possibilities on cyclonic or anticyclonic turbulence, 2x8 hybrid weather types can be defined. In this way 27 different regimes can be distinguished including a class of non-classifiable cases. The 27 regimes could be reduced to a number of 11 by allotting the hybrid types to the directional or the centered types. As the classification is carried out for the North Sea based on ERA40 mean sea level pressure the different regimes clearly reflect the mean wind characteristics at the stations. Comparing the wind roses for the individual observations leads to the assumption that the regime classification described before fits the requirements to carry out the regime dependent evaluation of the RCMs with a focus on the German and Dutch coast. Trends in the occurrence of the regimes in the winter period of 1961 to 2000 show an increase of the regimes with Western and Southwestern wind directions and a decrease of wind events from Eastern directions in the North Sea. The trend is dominated by the strong positive phase of the NAO especially in the months January to March starting in the beginning of the 1980s. Due to the applied method ERA40 and the RCMs do not necessarily show the same regime at each day. The agreement among the RCM

  16. Operation of a Wind Turbine-Flywheel Energy Storage System under Conditions of Stochastic Change of Wind Energy

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    The paper presents the issues of a wind turbine-flywheel energy storage system (WT-FESS) operation under real conditions. Stochastic changes of wind energy in time cause significant fluctuations of the system output power and as a result have a negative impact on the quality of the generated electrical energy. In the author's opinion it is possible to reduce the aforementioned effects by using an energy storage of an appropriate type and capacity. It was assumed that based on the technical parameters of a wind turbine-energy storage system and its geographical location one can determine the boundary capacity of the storage, which helps prevent power cuts to the grid at the assumed probability. Flywheel energy storage was selected due to its characteristics and technical parameters. The storage capacity was determined based on an empirical relationship using the results of the proposed statistical and energetic analysis of the measured wind velocity courses. A detailed algorithm of the WT-FESS with the power grid system was developed, eliminating short-term breaks in the turbine operation and periods when the wind turbine power was below the assumed level. PMID:25215326

  17. Operation of a wind turbine-flywheel energy storage system under conditions of stochastic change of wind energy.

    PubMed

    Tomczewski, Andrzej

    2014-01-01

    The paper presents the issues of a wind turbine-flywheel energy storage system (WT-FESS) operation under real conditions. Stochastic changes of wind energy in time cause significant fluctuations of the system output power and as a result have a negative impact on the quality of the generated electrical energy. In the author's opinion it is possible to reduce the aforementioned effects by using an energy storage of an appropriate type and capacity. It was assumed that based on the technical parameters of a wind turbine-energy storage system and its geographical location one can determine the boundary capacity of the storage, which helps prevent power cuts to the grid at the assumed probability. Flywheel energy storage was selected due to its characteristics and technical parameters. The storage capacity was determined based on an empirical relationship using the results of the proposed statistical and energetic analysis of the measured wind velocity courses. A detailed algorithm of the WT-FESS with the power grid system was developed, eliminating short-term breaks in the turbine operation and periods when the wind turbine power was below the assumed level. PMID:25215326

  18. Operation of a wind turbine-flywheel energy storage system under conditions of stochastic change of wind energy.

    PubMed

    Tomczewski, Andrzej

    2014-01-01

    The paper presents the issues of a wind turbine-flywheel energy storage system (WT-FESS) operation under real conditions. Stochastic changes of wind energy in time cause significant fluctuations of the system output power and as a result have a negative impact on the quality of the generated electrical energy. In the author's opinion it is possible to reduce the aforementioned effects by using an energy storage of an appropriate type and capacity. It was assumed that based on the technical parameters of a wind turbine-energy storage system and its geographical location one can determine the boundary capacity of the storage, which helps prevent power cuts to the grid at the assumed probability. Flywheel energy storage was selected due to its characteristics and technical parameters. The storage capacity was determined based on an empirical relationship using the results of the proposed statistical and energetic analysis of the measured wind velocity courses. A detailed algorithm of the WT-FESS with the power grid system was developed, eliminating short-term breaks in the turbine operation and periods when the wind turbine power was below the assumed level.

  19. Challenges in predicting climate and environmental effects on vector-borne disease episystems in a changing world.

    PubMed

    Tabachnick, W J

    2010-03-15

    Vector-borne pathogens cause enormous suffering to humans and animals. Many are expanding their range into new areas. Dengue, West Nile and Chikungunya have recently caused substantial human epidemics. Arthropod-borne animal diseases like Bluetongue, Rift Valley fever and African horse sickness pose substantial threats to livestock economies around the world. Climate change can impact the vector-borne disease epidemiology. Changes in climate will influence arthropod vectors, their life cycles and life histories, resulting in changes in both vector and pathogen distribution and changes in the ability of arthropods to transmit pathogens. Climate can affect the way pathogens interact with both the arthropod vector and the human or animal host. Predicting and mitigating the effects of future changes in the environment like climate change on the complex arthropod-pathogen-host epidemiological cycle requires understanding of a variety of complex mechanisms from the molecular to the population level. Although there has been substantial progress on many fronts the challenges to effectively understand and mitigate the impact of potential changes in the environment on vector-borne pathogens are formidable and at an early stage of development. The challenges will be explored using several arthropod-borne pathogen systems as illustration, and potential avenues to meet the challenges will be presented.

  20. Mosquitoes and Culicoides biting midges: vector range and the influence of climate change.

    PubMed

    Elbers, A R W; Koenraadt, C J M; Meiswinkel, R

    2015-04-01

    Vector-borne animal diseases pose a continuous and substantial threat to livestock economies around the globe. Increasing international travel, the globalisation of trade, and climate change are likely to play a progressively more important role in the introduction, establishment and spread of arthropod-borne pathogens worldwide. A review of the literature reveals that many climatic variables, functioning singly or in combination, exert varying effects on the distribution and range of Culicoides vector midges and mosquitoes. For example, higher temperatures may be associated with increased insect abundance--thereby amplifying the risk of disease transmission--but there are no indications yet of dramatic shifts occurring in the geographic range of Culicoides midges. However, the same cannot be said for mosquitoes: over the last few decades, multiple Asian species have established themselves in Europe, spread and are unlikely to ever be eradicated. Research on how insects respond to changes in climate is still in its infancy. The authors argue that we need to grasp how other annectant changes, such as extremes in precipitation (drought and flooding), may affect the dispersal capability of mosquitoes. Models are useful for assessing the interplay between mosquito vectors expanding their range and the native flora and fauna; however, ecological studies employing classical mark-release-recapture techniques remain essential for addressing fundamental questions about the survival and dispersal of mosquito species, with the resulting parameters fed directly into new-generation disease transmission models. Studies on the eventual impact of mosquitoes on animal and human health should be tackled through large-scale integrated research programmes. Such an approach calls for more collaborative efforts, along the lines of the One Health Initiative. PMID:26470453

  1. Dynamics of Sylvatic Chagas Disease Vectors in Coastal Ecuador Is Driven by Changes in Land Cover

    PubMed Central

    Grijalva, Mario J.; Terán, David; Dangles, Olivier

    2014-01-01

    Background Chagas disease is a serious public health problem in Latin America where about ten million individuals show Trypanosoma cruzi infection. Despite significant success in controlling domiciliated triatomines, sylvatic populations frequently infest houses after insecticide treatment which hampers long term control prospects in vast geographical areas where vectorial transmission is endemic. As a key issue, the spatio-temporal dynamics of sylvatic populations is likely influenced by landscape yet evidence showing this effect is rare. The aim of this work is to examine the role of land cover changes in sylvatic triatomine ecology, based on an exhaustive field survey of pathogens, vectors, hosts, and microhabitat characteristics' dynamics. Methodology and Principal Findings The study was performed in agricultural landscapes of coastal Ecuador as a study model. Over one year, a spatially-randomized sampling design (490 collection points) allowed quantifying triatomine densities in natural, cultivated and domestic habitats. We also assessed infection of the bugs with trypanosomes, documented their microhabitats and potential hosts, and recorded changes in landscape characteristics. In total we collected 886 individuals, mainly represented by nymphal stages of one triatomine species Rhodnius ecuadoriensis. As main results, we found that 1) sylvatic triatomines had very high T. cruzi infection rates (71%) and 2) densities of T. cruzi-infected sylvatic triatomines varied predictably over time due to changes in land cover and occurrence of associated rodent hosts. Conclusion We propose a framework for identifying the factors affecting the yearly distribution of sylvatic T. cruzi vectors. Beyond providing key basic information for the control of human habitat colonization by sylvatic vector populations, our framework highlights the importance of both environmental and sociological factors in shaping the spatio-temporal population dynamics of triatomines. A better

  2. Mosquitoes and Culicoides biting midges: vector range and the influence of climate change.

    PubMed

    Elbers, A R W; Koenraadt, C J M; Meiswinkel, R

    2015-04-01

    Vector-borne animal diseases pose a continuous and substantial threat to livestock economies around the globe. Increasing international travel, the globalisation of trade, and climate change are likely to play a progressively more important role in the introduction, establishment and spread of arthropod-borne pathogens worldwide. A review of the literature reveals that many climatic variables, functioning singly or in combination, exert varying effects on the distribution and range of Culicoides vector midges and mosquitoes. For example, higher temperatures may be associated with increased insect abundance--thereby amplifying the risk of disease transmission--but there are no indications yet of dramatic shifts occurring in the geographic range of Culicoides midges. However, the same cannot be said for mosquitoes: over the last few decades, multiple Asian species have established themselves in Europe, spread and are unlikely to ever be eradicated. Research on how insects respond to changes in climate is still in its infancy. The authors argue that we need to grasp how other annectant changes, such as extremes in precipitation (drought and flooding), may affect the dispersal capability of mosquitoes. Models are useful for assessing the interplay between mosquito vectors expanding their range and the native flora and fauna; however, ecological studies employing classical mark-release-recapture techniques remain essential for addressing fundamental questions about the survival and dispersal of mosquito species, with the resulting parameters fed directly into new-generation disease transmission models. Studies on the eventual impact of mosquitoes on animal and human health should be tackled through large-scale integrated research programmes. Such an approach calls for more collaborative efforts, along the lines of the One Health Initiative.

  3. Projecting Wind Energy Potential Under Climate Change with Ensemble of Climate Model Simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jain, A.; Shashikanth, K.; Ghosh, S.; Mukherjee, P. P.

    2013-12-01

    Recent years have witnessed an increasing global concern over energy sustainability and security, triggered by a number of issues, such as (though not limited to): fossil fuel depletion, energy resource geopolitics, economic efficiency versus population growth debate, environmental concerns and climate change. Wind energy is a renewable and sustainable form of energy in which wind turbines convert the kinetic energy of wind into electrical energy. Global warming and differential surface heating may significantly impact the wind velocity and hence the wind energy potential. Sustainable design of wind mills requires understanding the impacts of climate change on wind energy potential, which we evaluate here with multiple General Circulation Models (GCMs). GCMs simulate the climate variables globally considering the greenhouse emission scenarios provided as Representation Concentration path ways (RCPs). Here we use new generation climate model outputs obtained from Coupled model Intercomparison Project 5(CMIP5). We first compute the wind energy potential with reanalysis data (NCEP/ NCAR), at a spatial resolution of 2.50, where the gridded data is fitted to Weibull distribution and with the Weibull parameters, the wind energy densities are computed at different grids. The same methodology is then used, to CMIP5 outputs (resultant of U-wind and V-wind) of MRI, CMCC, BCC, CanESM, and INMCM4 for historical runs. This is performed separately for four seasons globally, MAM, JJA, SON and DJF. We observe the muti-model average of wind energy density for historic period has significant bias with respect to that of reanalysis product. Here we develop a quantile based superensemble approach where GCM quantiles corresponding to selected CDF values are regressed to reanalysis data. It is observed that this regression approach takes care of both, bias in GCMs and combination of GCMs. With superensemble, we observe that the historical wind energy density resembles quite well with

  4. Potential Influence of Climate Change on Vector-Borne and Zoonotic Diseases: A Review and Proposed Research Plan

    PubMed Central

    Mills, James N.; Gage, Kenneth L.; Khan, Ali S.

    2010-01-01

    Background Because of complex interactions of climate variables at the levels of the pathogen, vector, and host, the potential influence of climate change on vector-borne and zoonotic diseases (VBZDs) is poorly understood and difficult to predict. Climate effects on the nonvector-borne zoonotic diseases are especially obscure and have received scant treatment. Objective We described known and potential effects of climate change on VBZDs and proposed specific studies to increase our understanding of these effects. The nonvector-borne zoonotic diseases have received scant treatment and are emphasized in this paper. Data sources and synthesis We used a review of the existing literature and extrapolations from observations of short-term climate variation to suggest potential impacts of climate change on VBZDs. Using public health priorities on climate change, published by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, we developed six specific goals for increasing understanding of the interaction between climate and VBZDs and for improving capacity for predicting climate change effects on incidence and distribution of VBZDs. Conclusions Climate change may affect the incidence of VBZDs through its effect on four principal characteristics of host and vector populations that relate to pathogen transmission to humans: geographic distribution, population density, prevalence of infection by zoonotic pathogens, and the pathogen load in individual hosts and vectors. These mechanisms may interact with each other and with other factors such as anthropogenic disturbance to produce varying effects on pathogen transmission within host and vector populations and to humans. Because climate change effects on most VBZDs act through wildlife hosts and vectors, understanding these effects will require multidisciplinary teams to conduct and interpret ecosystem-based studies of VBZD pathogens in host and vector populations and to identify the hosts, vectors, and pathogens with the

  5. Detecting land-use/land-cover change in rural-urban fringe areas using extended change-vector analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, Chunyang; Wei, Anni; Shi, Peijun; Zhang, Qiaofeng; Zhao, Yuanyuan

    2011-08-01

    Detecting land-use/land-cover (LULC) changes in rural-urban fringe areas (RUFAs) timely and accurately using satellite imagery is essential for land-use planning and management in China. Although traditional spectral-based change-vector analysis (CVA) can effectively detect LULC change in many cases, it encounters difficulties in RUFAs because of deficiencies in the spectral information of satellite images. To detect LULC changes in RUFAs effectively, this paper proposes an extended CVA approach that incorporates textural change information into the traditional spectral-based CVA. The extended CVA was applied to three different pilot RUFAs in China with different remotely sensed data, including Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM), China-Brazil Earth Resources Satellite (CBERS) and Advanced Land Observing Satellite (ALOS) images. The results demonstrated the improvement of the extended CVA compared to the traditional spectral-based CVA with the overall accuracy increased between 4.66% and 8.00% and the kappa coefficient increased between 0.10 and 0.15, respectively. The advantage of the extended CVA lies in its integration of both spectral and textural change information to detect LULC changes, allowing for effective discrimination of LULC changes that are spectrally similar but texturally different in RUFAs. The extended CVA has great potential to be widely used for LULC-change detection in RUFAs, which are often heterogeneous and fragmental in nature, with rich textural information.

  6. Malaria vectors in the changing environment of the southern Punjab, Pakistan.

    PubMed

    Klinkenberg, Eveline; Konradsen, Flemming; Herrel, Nathaly; Mukhtar, Muhammad; van der Hoek, Wim; Amerasinghe, Felix P

    2004-07-01

    The Pakistani Punjab experienced several devastating malaria epidemics during the twentieth century. Since the 1980s, however, malaria has been at a low ebb, while in other areas of Pakistan and neighbouring India malaria is on the increase. This raises the question of whether transmission in the Pakistani Punjab may have been influenced by a change in vector species abundance or composition, possibly induced by environmental changes. To investigate this question, routinely-collected government entomological data for the period 1970 to 1999 for the district of Bahawalnagar, in the Indus Basin irrigation system in the southern Punjab, was analysed. Our findings suggest that Anopheles stephensi has increased in prevalence and became more common than A. culicifacies during the 1980s. This shift in species dominance may be due to the large-scale ecological changes that have taken place in the Punjab, where irrigation-induced waterlogging of soil with related salinization has created an environment favourable for the more salt-tolerant A. stephensi. Some biotypes of A. stephensi are suspected of being less efficient vectors and, therefore, the shift in species dominance might have played a role in the reduced transmission in the Punjab, although further research is needed to investigate the effect of other transmission-influencing factors.

  7. Evaluation of High-Resolution Ocean Surface Vector Winds Measured by QuikSCAT Scatterometer in Coastal Regions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tang, Wenqing; Liu, W. Timothy; Stiles, Bryan W.

    2004-01-01

    The SeaWinds scatterometer onboard QuikSCAT covers approximately 90% of the global ocean under clear and cloudy condition in 24 h, and the standard data product has 25-km spatial resolution. Such spatial resolution is not sufficient to resolve small-scale processes, especially in coastal oceans. Based on range-compressed normalized backscatter and a modified wind retrieval algorithm, a coastal wind dataset at 12.5-km resolution was produced. Even with larger error, the high-resolution winds, in medium to high strength, would still be useful over coastal ocean. Using measurements from moored buoys from the National Buoy Data Center, the high-resolution QuikSCAT wind data are found to have similar accuracy as standard data in the open ocean. The accuracy of both high- and standard-resolution winds, particularly in wind directions, is found to degrade near shore. The increase in error is likely caused by the inadequacy of the geophysical model function/ambiguity removal scheme in addressing coastal conditions and light winds situations. The modified algorithm helps to bring the directional accuracy of the high-resolution winds to the accuracy of the standard-resolution winds in near-shore regions, particularly in the nadir and far zones across the satellite track.

  8. Change in Hamiltonian general relativity from the lack of a time-like Killing vector field

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pitts, J. Brian

    2014-08-01

    In General Relativity in Hamiltonian form, change has seemed to be missing, defined only asymptotically, or otherwise obscured at best, because the Hamiltonian is a sum of first-class constraints and a boundary term and thus supposedly generates gauge transformations. Attention to the gauge generator G of Rosenfeld, Anderson, Bergmann, Castellani et al., a specially tuned sum of first-class constraints, facilitates seeing that a solitary first-class constraint in fact generates not a gauge transformation, but a bad physical change in electromagnetism (changing the electric field) or General Relativity. The change spoils the Lagrangian constraints, Gauss's law or the Gauss-Codazzi relations describing embedding of space into space-time, in terms of the physically relevant velocities rather than auxiliary canonical momenta. While Maudlin and Healey have defended change in GR much as G. E. Moore resisted skepticism, there remains a need to exhibit the technical flaws in the no-change argument. Insistence on Hamiltonian-Lagrangian equivalence, a theme emphasized by Mukunda, Castellani, Sugano, Pons, Salisbury, Shepley and Sundermeyer among others, holds the key. Taking objective change to be ineliminable time dependence, one recalls that there is change in vacuum GR just in case there is no time-like vector field ξα satisfying Killing's equation £ξgμν = 0, because then there exists no coordinate system such that everything is independent of time. Throwing away the spatial dependence of GR for convenience, one finds explicitly that the time evolution from Hamilton's equations is real change just when there is no time-like Killing vector. The inclusion of a massive scalar field is simple. No obstruction is expected in including spatial dependence and coupling more general matter fields. Hence change is real and local even in the Hamiltonian formalism. The considerations here resolve the Earman-Maudlin standoff over change in Hamiltonian General Relativity: the

  9. On the Improvement of Convergence Performance for Integrated Design of Wind Turbine Blade Using a Vector Dominating Multi-objective Evolution Algorithm

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, L.; Wang, T. G.; Wu, J. H.; Cheng, G. P.

    2016-09-01

    A novel multi-objective optimization algorithm incorporating evolution strategies and vector mechanisms, referred as VD-MOEA, is proposed and applied in aerodynamic- structural integrated design of wind turbine blade. In the algorithm, a set of uniformly distributed vectors is constructed to guide population in moving forward to the Pareto front rapidly and maintain population diversity with high efficiency. For example, two- and three- objective designs of 1.5MW wind turbine blade are subsequently carried out for the optimization objectives of maximum annual energy production, minimum blade mass, and minimum extreme root thrust. The results show that the Pareto optimal solutions can be obtained in one single simulation run and uniformly distributed in the objective space, maximally maintaining the population diversity. In comparison to conventional evolution algorithms, VD-MOEA displays dramatic improvement of algorithm performance in both convergence and diversity preservation for handling complex problems of multi-variables, multi-objectives and multi-constraints. This provides a reliable high-performance optimization approach for the aerodynamic-structural integrated design of wind turbine blade.

  10. Effects of El Niño-driven changes in wind patterns on North Pacific albatrosses.

    PubMed

    Thorne, L H; Conners, M G; Hazen, E L; Bograd, S J; Antolos, M; Costa, D P; Shaffer, S A

    2016-06-01

    Changes to patterns of wind and ocean currents are tightly linked to climate change and have important implications for cost of travel and energy budgets in marine vertebrates. We evaluated how El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-driven wind patterns affected breeding Laysan and black-footed albatross across a decade of study. Owing to latitudinal variation in wind patterns, wind speed differed between habitat used during incubation and brooding; during La Niña conditions, wind speeds were lower in incubating Laysan (though not black-footed) albatross habitat, but higher in habitats used by brooding albatrosses. Incubating Laysan albatrosses benefited from increased wind speeds during El Niño conditions, showing increased travel speeds and mass gained during foraging trips. However, brooding albatrosses did not benefit from stronger winds during La Niña conditions, instead experiencing stronger cumulative headwinds and a smaller proportion of trips in tailwinds. Increased travel costs during brooding may contribute to the lower reproductive success observed in La Niña conditions. Furthermore, benefits of stronger winds in incubating habitat may explain the higher reproductive success of Laysan albatross during El Niño conditions. Our findings highlight the importance of considering habitat accessibility and cost of travel when evaluating the impacts of climate-driven habitat change on marine predators.

  11. Effects of El Niño-driven changes in wind patterns on North Pacific albatrosses.

    PubMed

    Thorne, L H; Conners, M G; Hazen, E L; Bograd, S J; Antolos, M; Costa, D P; Shaffer, S A

    2016-06-01

    Changes to patterns of wind and ocean currents are tightly linked to climate change and have important implications for cost of travel and energy budgets in marine vertebrates. We evaluated how El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-driven wind patterns affected breeding Laysan and black-footed albatross across a decade of study. Owing to latitudinal variation in wind patterns, wind speed differed between habitat used during incubation and brooding; during La Niña conditions, wind speeds were lower in incubating Laysan (though not black-footed) albatross habitat, but higher in habitats used by brooding albatrosses. Incubating Laysan albatrosses benefited from increased wind speeds during El Niño conditions, showing increased travel speeds and mass gained during foraging trips. However, brooding albatrosses did not benefit from stronger winds during La Niña conditions, instead experiencing stronger cumulative headwinds and a smaller proportion of trips in tailwinds. Increased travel costs during brooding may contribute to the lower reproductive success observed in La Niña conditions. Furthermore, benefits of stronger winds in incubating habitat may explain the higher reproductive success of Laysan albatross during El Niño conditions. Our findings highlight the importance of considering habitat accessibility and cost of travel when evaluating the impacts of climate-driven habitat change on marine predators. PMID:27278360

  12. 20% Wind Energy - Diversifying Our Energy Portfolio and Addressing Climate Change (Brochure)

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    2008-05-01

    This brochure describes the R&D efforts needed for wind energy to meet 20% of the U.S. electrical demand by 2030. In May 2008, DOE published its report, 20% Wind Energy by 2030, which presents an in-depth analysis of the potential for wind energy in the United States and outlines a potential scenario to boost wind electric generation from its current production of 16.8 gigawatts (GW) to 304 GW by 2030. According to the report, achieving 20% wind energy by 2030 could help address climate change by reducing electric sector carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by 825 million metric tons (20% of the electric utility sector CO2 emissions if no new wind is installed by 2030), and it will enhance our nation's energy security by diversifying our electricity portfolio as wind energy is an indigenous energy source with stable prices not subject to fuel volatility. According to the report, increasing our nation's wind generation could also boost local rural economies and contribute to significant growth in manufacturing and the industry supply chain. Rural economies will benefit from a substantial increase in land use payments, tax benefits and the number of well-paying jobs created by the wind energy manufacturing, construction, and maintenance industries. Although the initial capital costs of implementing the 20% wind scenario would be higher than other generation sources, according to the report, wind energy offers lower ongoing energy costs than conventional generation power plants for operations, maintenance, and fuel. The 20% scenario could require an incremental investment of as little as $43 billion (net present value) more than a base-case no new wind scenario. This would represent less than 0.06 cent (6 one-hundredths of 1 cent) per kilowatt-hour of total generation by 2030, or roughly 50 cents per month per household. The report concludes that while achieving the 20% wind scenario is technically achievable, it will require enhanced transmission infrastructure

  13. An appraisal of the full geomagnetic vector in wind-blown sediments - does it have a future? (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kravchinsky, V. A.

    2013-12-01

    Recent progress in the relative paleointensity (RPI) studies of the loess and paleosol deposits of China demonstrate the applicability of the technique in some sections. The PRI record of the Lingtai section (Pan et al., 2001) is mostly comparable to the reference curves of Valet et al. (2005) and Channel et al. (2009). Climate driven chemical alterations of remnant magnetization signal is additionally suggested as an explanation to the intervals of dissimilarities. The newest results of Yang et al. (2012) reveal more complex situations. At the Baoji section, where pedogenesis is relatively weak, the RPI results might possibly suggest a reflection of global paleointensity variations. The record from the Xifeng section, where pedogenesis is stronger, does not reveal any interpretable results. Studies of the Luochuan section suggest that chemical remnant magnetization is strongly linked to the pedogenesis process implying serious constrains on the interpretation of the high resolution paleomagnetic records from the paleosol and the underlying loess intervals (Liu and Zhang, 2013). At the same time, recent paleomagnetic and mineral magnetic investigations indicate that the Alaskan loess is an excellent geomagnetic direction recorder in the upper Matuyama and Brunhes epoch (Evans et al., 2011). The fine structure of the geomagnetic field can be accurately evaluated for the intervals, which are reliably dated with modern techniques (Jensen, 2013). The strong magnetic signal carried by magnetite from the igneous rock sources overwrites complexities caused by the pedogenesis process, therefore our newly obtained Alaskan geomagnetic record is the first candidate for both reliable paleointensity data set from the wind-blown sediments and the fine structure of the full geoomagnetic vector (inclination, declination, RPI). High resolution geochronology and high latitude position of the Alaskan loess help resolving the fine features of the geomagnetic excursions which are

  14. Eclipse-induced wind changes over the British Isles on the 20 March 2015.

    PubMed

    Gray, S L; Harrison, R G

    2016-09-28

    The British Isles benefits from dense meteorological observation networks, enabling insights into the still-unresolved effects of solar eclipse events on the near-surface wind field. The near-surface effects of the solar eclipse of 20 March 2015 are derived through comparison of output from the Met Office's operational weather forecast model (which is ignorant of the eclipse) with data from two meteorological networks: the Met Office's land surface station (MIDAS) network and a roadside measurement network operated by Vaisala. Synoptic-evolution relative calculations reveal the cooling and increase in relative humidity almost universally attributed to eclipse events. In addition, a slackening of wind speeds by up to about 2 knots in already weak winds and backing in wind direction of about 20° under clear skies across middle England are attributed to the eclipse event. The slackening of wind speed is consistent with the previously reported boundary layer stabilization during eclipse events. Wind direction changes have previously been attributed to a large-scale 'eclipse-induced cold-cored cyclone', mountain slope flows, and changes in the strength of sea breezes. A new explanation is proposed here by analogy with nocturnal wind changes at sunset and shown to predict direction changes consistent with those observed.This article is part of the themed issue 'Atmospheric effects of solar eclipses stimulated by the 2015 UK eclipse'. PMID:27550759

  15. Eclipse-induced wind changes over the British Isles on the 20 March 2015

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    The British Isles benefits from dense meteorological observation networks, enabling insights into the still-unresolved effects of solar eclipse events on the near-surface wind field. The near-surface effects of the solar eclipse of 20 March 2015 are derived through comparison of output from the Met Office’s operational weather forecast model (which is ignorant of the eclipse) with data from two meteorological networks: the Met Office’s land surface station (MIDAS) network and a roadside measurement network operated by Vaisala. Synoptic-evolution relative calculations reveal the cooling and increase in relative humidity almost universally attributed to eclipse events. In addition, a slackening of wind speeds by up to about 2 knots in already weak winds and backing in wind direction of about 20° under clear skies across middle England are attributed to the eclipse event. The slackening of wind speed is consistent with the previously reported boundary layer stabilization during eclipse events. Wind direction changes have previously been attributed to a large-scale ‘eclipse-induced cold-cored cyclone’, mountain slope flows, and changes in the strength of sea breezes. A new explanation is proposed here by analogy with nocturnal wind changes at sunset and shown to predict direction changes consistent with those observed. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Atmospheric effects of solar eclipses stimulated by the 2015 UK eclipse’. PMID:27550759

  16. Eclipse-induced wind changes over the British Isles on the 20 March 2015.

    PubMed

    Gray, S L; Harrison, R G

    2016-09-28

    The British Isles benefits from dense meteorological observation networks, enabling insights into the still-unresolved effects of solar eclipse events on the near-surface wind field. The near-surface effects of the solar eclipse of 20 March 2015 are derived through comparison of output from the Met Office's operational weather forecast model (which is ignorant of the eclipse) with data from two meteorological networks: the Met Office's land surface station (MIDAS) network and a roadside measurement network operated by Vaisala. Synoptic-evolution relative calculations reveal the cooling and increase in relative humidity almost universally attributed to eclipse events. In addition, a slackening of wind speeds by up to about 2 knots in already weak winds and backing in wind direction of about 20° under clear skies across middle England are attributed to the eclipse event. The slackening of wind speed is consistent with the previously reported boundary layer stabilization during eclipse events. Wind direction changes have previously been attributed to a large-scale 'eclipse-induced cold-cored cyclone', mountain slope flows, and changes in the strength of sea breezes. A new explanation is proposed here by analogy with nocturnal wind changes at sunset and shown to predict direction changes consistent with those observed.This article is part of the themed issue 'Atmospheric effects of solar eclipses stimulated by the 2015 UK eclipse'.

  17. Togavirus-associated pathologic changes in the midgut of a natural mosquito vector.

    PubMed Central

    Weaver, S C; Scott, T W; Lorenz, L H; Lerdthusnee, K; Romoser, W S

    1988-01-01

    Arthropod-borne viruses were not previously believed to cause discernible pathologic changes in their natural mosquito vectors. We report cytopathologic lesions in the midgut of the mosquito, Culiseta melanura, 2 to 5 days after oral infection with eastern equine encephalomyelitis virus. Sloughing of densely staining, heavily infected epithelial cells into the midgut lumen was observed by light and transmission electron microscopy, along with degeneration of cells within the epithelium. Pathological changes in midgut epithelial cells sometimes included loss of brush border and basal lamina integrity. Disruption of the midgut basal lamina could result in bypassing of barriers to virus dissemination within the mosquito and allow rapid transmission to occur. Alternatively, luminal sloughing of heavily infected midgut epithelial cells may serve to modulate mosquito infections. These findings challenge previous beliefs regarding the benign nature of arbovirus-invertebrate host relationships. Images PMID:2896802

  18. Togavirus-associated pathologic changes in the midgut of a natural mosquito vector.

    PubMed

    Weaver, S C; Scott, T W; Lorenz, L H; Lerdthusnee, K; Romoser, W S

    1988-06-01

    Arthropod-borne viruses were not previously believed to cause discernible pathologic changes in their natural mosquito vectors. We report cytopathologic lesions in the midgut of the mosquito, Culiseta melanura, 2 to 5 days after oral infection with eastern equine encephalomyelitis virus. Sloughing of densely staining, heavily infected epithelial cells into the midgut lumen was observed by light and transmission electron microscopy, along with degeneration of cells within the epithelium. Pathological changes in midgut epithelial cells sometimes included loss of brush border and basal lamina integrity. Disruption of the midgut basal lamina could result in bypassing of barriers to virus dissemination within the mosquito and allow rapid transmission to occur. Alternatively, luminal sloughing of heavily infected midgut epithelial cells may serve to modulate mosquito infections. These findings challenge previous beliefs regarding the benign nature of arbovirus-invertebrate host relationships.

  19. Future changes to the Indonesian Throughflow and Pacific circulation: The differing role of wind and deep circulation changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sen Gupta, Alex; McGregor, Shayne; Sebille, Erik; Ganachaud, Alexandre; Brown, Jaclyn N.; Santoso, Agus

    2016-02-01

    Climate models consistently project a substantial decrease in the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) in response to enhanced greenhouse warming. On interannual timescales ITF changes are largely related to tropical Pacific wind variability. However, on the multidecadal timescales investigated here we demonstrate that regional winds and associated changes in the upper ocean circulation cannot explain the projected ITF decrease. Instead, the decrease is related to a weakening in the northward flow of deep waters entering the Pacific basin at ~40°S and an associated reduction in the net basin-wide upwelling to the north of the southern tip of Australia. This can be traced back to consistent changes in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and Southern Ocean overturning, although questions still remain as to the ultimate drivers. In contrast to the ITF decrease, substantial projected changes to the upper ocean circulation of the Pacific basin are well explained by robust changes in the surface winds.

  20. The fossil wind structures of Eta Carinae: changes across one 5.54-yr cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gull, Theodore R.; Madura, Thomas I.; Teodoro, Mairan; Clementel, Nicola; Corcoran, Michael; Damineli, Augusto; Groh, Jose H.; Hamaguchi, Kenji; Hillier, D. John; Moffat, Anthony F. J.; Richardson, Noel D.; Weigelt, Gerd; Lindler, Don; Feggans, Keith

    2016-11-01

    Eta Carinae, the closest, active, massive binary containing a highly unstable Luminous Blue Variable, exhibits expanding, compressed wind shells, seen in emission, that are spatially and spectrally resolved by Hubble Space Telescope/Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph. Starting in 2009 June, these structures were mapped across its 5.54-yr, highly elliptical, binary orbit to follow temporal changes in the light of [Fe III] 4659 Å and [Fe II] 4815 Å. The emissions trace portions of fossil wind shells, that were formed by wind-wind interactions across each cycle. Over the high-ionization state, dense arcs, photoionized by far-ultraviolet radiation from the hot secondary, are seen in [Fe III]. Other arcs, ionized by mid-ultraviolet radiation from the primary star, are seen in [Fe II]. The [Fe III] structures tend to be interior to [Fe II] structures that trace extensive, less disturbed primary wind. During the brief periastron passage when the secondary plunges deep into the primary's extremely dense wind, on the far side of primary star, high-ionization [Fe III] structures fade and reappear in [Fe II]. Multiple fossil wind structures were traced across the 5.7-yr monitoring interval. The strong similarity of the expanding [Fe II] shells suggests that the wind and photoionization properties of the massive binary have not changed substantially from one orbit to the next over the past several orbital cycles. These observations trace structures that can be used to test 3D hydrodynamical and radiative-transfer models of massive, interacting winds. They also provide a baseline for following future changes in η Car, especially of its winds and photoionization properties.

  1. Environmental change and water-related, vector borne diseases in eastern Africa: the HEALTHY FUTURES project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Taylor, David; Kienberger, Stefan; Tompkins, Adrian

    2015-04-01

    Pathogens that spend time outside the human body, and any organisms involved in their transmission, have particular ecological requirements; as environment, including climate, conditions change, then the transmission characteristics of associated pathogens - and the diseases caused - are also likely to vary. Relationships between environment and health in many parts of the world remain poorly studied and are often overlooked, however. This is particularly the case in developing countries, because of budgetary and available expertise constraints. Moreover the relationship is often confounded by other factors. These other factors contribute to human vulnerability, and thus to the overall disease risk due to environmental change. This presentation will highlight the importance of environmental, including climate, change information to a better understanding of the risks to health of projected future environmental changes, and to the more efficient and effective use of scarce health resources in the developing world. The paper will focus on eastern Africa, and in particular the health effects of future projected environmental change impacts on water-related, vector borne diseases in the East African Community region. Moreover the paper will highlight how the EU FP7-funded project HEALTHY FUTURES is, through a broadly-based, integrative approach that distinguishes environmental change-induced health hazard from health risk aims to support the health decisions making process, thereby attempting to help mitigate negative health impacts.

  2. The Impact of Wind Speed Changes on the Surface Stress in the Weak-wind Stable Boundary Layer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thomas, C. K.

    2015-12-01

    The behaviour of turbulent transport in the weak-wind stably stratified boundary layer is examined in terms of the non-stationarity of the wind field based upon field observations. Extensive sonic anemometer measurements from horizontal networks and vertical towers ranging from 12 to 20 m height were collected from three field programs in moderately sloped terrain with a varying degree of surface heterogeneity, namely the Shallow Cold Pool (SCP) and the Flow Over Snow Surfaces (FLOSS) II experiments in Colorado (USA), and the Advanced Canopy Resolution Experiment (ARCFLO) in Oregon (USA). The relationship of the friction velocity to the stratification and small non-stationary submeso motions is studied from several points of view and nominally quantified. The relationship of the turbulence to the stratification is less systematic than expected due to the important submeso-scale motions. Consequently, the roles of the wind speed and stratification are not adequately accommodated by a single non-dimensional combination, such as the bulk Richardson number. Howver, cause and effect relationships are difficult to isolate because the non-stationary momentum flux significantly modifies the profile of the non-stationary mean flow. The link between the turbulence and accelerations at the surface is examined in terms of the changing vertical structure of the wind profile and sudden increases of downward transport of momentum. The latter may be significant in explaining the small-scale weak turbulence during stable stratification and deviations from conventional flux-profile relationships.

  3. Effect of sudden solar wind dynamic pressure changes at subauroral latitudes - Change in magnetic field

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Le, G.; Russell, C. T.; Petrinec, S. M.; Ginskey, M.

    1993-01-01

    The observations obtained during the International Magnetospheric Study (IMS) from the magnetometers of the IGS network extending from Cambridge, England, to Tromso, Norway, are used to study the response of subauroral current systems to sudden changes in solar wind dynamic pressure. Observations show that the response is very strong at subauroral latitudes. The preliminary response in the H component is a brief, small increase in the dayside morning sector and a decrease in the aftenoon and night sectors. The main response in the horizontal field (the H and D components) is toward the pole except in the dayside morning sector. The inferred ionospheric current is mainly a circulatory system flowing counterclockwise when viewed from the north pole everywhere at subauroral latitudes except the dayside morning sector.

  4. Effect of sudden solar wind dynamic pressure changes at subauroral latitudes: Change in magnetic field

    SciTech Connect

    Le, G.; Russell, C.T.; Petrinec, S.M.; Ginskey, M. )

    1993-03-01

    The observations obtained during the International Magnetospheric Study (IMS) from the magnetometers of the IGS network extending from Cambridge, England, to Tromso, Norway, are used to study the response of subauroral current systems to sudden changes in solar wind dynamic pressure. Observations show that the response is very strong at subauroral latitudes. The preliminary response in the H component is a brief, small increase in the dayside moring sector and a decrease in the afternoon and night sectors. The main response in the horizontal field (the H and D components) is toward the pole except in the dayside morning sector. The inferred ionospheric current is mainly a circulatory system flowing counterclockwise when viewed form the north pole everywhere at subauroral latitudes except the dayside morning sector. 29 refs., 12 figs.

  5. Widespread land surface wind decline in the Northern Hemisphere partly attributed to land surface changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thepaut, J.; Vautard, R.; Cattiaux, J.; Yiou, P.; Ciais, P.

    2010-12-01

    The decline of surface wind observed in many regions of the world is a potential source of concern for wind power electricity generation. It is also suggested as the main cause of decreasing pan evaporation. In China, a persistent and significant decrease of monsoon winds was observed in all seasons. Surface wind declines were also evidenced in several regions of the world (U.S., Australia, several European countries). Except over China, no clear explanation was given for the wind decrease in the regions studied. Whether surface winds decrease is due to changes in the global atmospheric circulation or its variability, in surface processes or to observational trends has therefore not been elucidated. The identification of the drivers of such a decline requires a global investigation of available surface and upper-air wind data, which has not been conducted so far. Here we use global datasets of in-situ wind measurements that contain surface weather stations wind data (hourly or three-hourly data acquisition time step) and rawinsonde vertical wind data profiles (monthly time step) prepared by the NCAR. A set of 822 worldwide surface stations with continuous wind records was selected after a careful elimination of stations with obvious breaks and large gaps. This dataset mostly covers the Northern mid latitudes over the period 1979-2008. Using this data set, we found that annual mean wind speeds have declined at 73% of the surface stations over the past 30 years. In the Northern Hemisphere, positive wind trends are found only in a few places. In Europe, Central Asia, Eastern Asia and in North America the annual mean surface wind speed has decreased on average at a rate of -2.9, -5.9, -4.2, and -1.8 %/decade respectively, i.e. a decrease of about 10% in 30 years and up to about 20% in Central Asia. These results are robust to changes in the station selection method and parameters. By contrast, upper-air winds observed from rawinsondes, geostrophic winds deduced from

  6. Modelling potential changes in marine biogeochemistry due to large-scale offshore wind farms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van der Molen, Johan; Rees, Jon; Limpenny, Sian

    2013-04-01

    Large-scale renewable energy generation by offshore wind farms may lead to changes in marine ecosystem processes through the following mechanism: 1) wind-energy extraction leads to a reduction in local surface wind speeds; 2) these lead to a reduction in the local wind wave height; 3) as a consequence there's a reduction in SPM resuspension and concentrations; 4) this results in an improvement in under-water light regime, which 5) may lead to increased primary production, which subsequently 6) cascades through the ecosystem. A three-dimensional coupled hydrodynamics-biogeochemistry model (GETM_ERSEM) was used to investigate this process for a hypothetical wind farm in the central North Sea, by running a reference scenario and a scenario with a 10% reduction (as was found in a case study of a small farm in Danish waters) in surface wind velocities in the area of the wind farm. The ERSEM model included both pelagic and benthic processes. The results showed that, within the farm area, the physical mechanisms were as expected, but with variations in the magnitude of the response depending on the ecosystem variable or exchange rate between two ecosystem variables (3-28%, depending on variable/rate). Benthic variables tended to be more sensitive to the changes than pelagic variables. Reduced, but noticeable changes also occurred for some variables in a region of up to two farm diameters surrounding the wind farm. An additional model run in which the 10% reduction in surface wind speed was applied only for wind speeds below the generally used threshold of 25 m/s for operational shut-down showed only minor differences from the run in which all wind speeds were reduced. These first results indicate that there is potential for measurable effects of large-scale offshore wind farms on the marine ecosystem, mainly within the farm but for some variables up to two farm diameters away. However, the wave and SPM parameterisations currently used in the model are crude and need to be

  7. Age-related changes in the control of finger force vectors.

    PubMed

    Kapur, Shweta; Zatsiorsky, Vladimir M; Latash, Mark L

    2010-12-01

    We explored changes in finger interaction in the process of healthy aging as a window into neural control strategies of natural movements. In particular, we quantified the amount of force produced by noninstructed fingers in different directions, the amount of force produced by the instructed finger orthogonally to the task direction, and the strength of multifinger synergies stabilizing the total force magnitude and direction during accurate force production. Healthy elderly participants performed accurate isometric force production tasks in five directions by individual fingers and by all four fingers acting together. Their data were compared with a dataset obtained in a similar earlier study of young subjects. Finger force vectors were measured using six-component force/torque sensors. Multifinger synergies were quantified using the framework of the uncontrolled manifold hypothesis. The elderly participants produced lower force magnitudes by noninstructed fingers and higher force magnitudes by instructed fingers in nontask directions. They showed strong synergies stabilizing the magnitude and direction of the total force vector. However, the synergy indexes were significantly lower than those observed in the earlier study of young subjects. The results are consistent with an earlier hypothesis of preferential weakening of intrinsic hand muscles with age. We interpret the findings as a shift in motor control from synergic to element-based, which may be causally linked to the documented progressive neuronal death at different levels of the neural axis. PMID:20829494

  8. Age-related changes in the control of finger force vectors

    PubMed Central

    Kapur, Shweta; Zatsiorsky, Vladimir M.

    2010-01-01

    We explored changes in finger interaction in the process of healthy aging as a window into neural control strategies of natural movements. In particular, we quantified the amount of force produced by noninstructed fingers in different directions, the amount of force produced by the instructed finger orthogonally to the task direction, and the strength of multifinger synergies stabilizing the total force magnitude and direction during accurate force production. Healthy elderly participants performed accurate isometric force production tasks in five directions by individual fingers and by all four fingers acting together. Their data were compared with a dataset obtained in a similar earlier study of young subjects. Finger force vectors were measured using six-component force/torque sensors. Multifinger synergies were quantified using the framework of the uncontrolled manifold hypothesis. The elderly participants produced lower force magnitudes by noninstructed fingers and higher force magnitudes by instructed fingers in nontask directions. They showed strong synergies stabilizing the magnitude and direction of the total force vector. However, the synergy indexes were significantly lower than those observed in the earlier study of young subjects. The results are consistent with an earlier hypothesis of preferential weakening of intrinsic hand muscles with age. We interpret the findings as a shift in motor control from synergic to element-based, which may be causally linked to the documented progressive neuronal death at different levels of the neural axis. PMID:20829494

  9. ERS-1 scatterometer calibration and validation activities at ECMWF. B: From radar backscatter characteristics to wind vector solutions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stoffelen, AD; Anderson, David L. T.; Woiceshyn, Peter M.

    1992-01-01

    Calibration and validation activities for the ERS-1 scatterometer were carried out at ECMWF (European Center for Medium range Weather Forecast) complementary to the 'Haltenbanken' field campaign off the coast of Norway. At a Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) center a wealth of verifying data is available both in time and space. This data is used to redefine the wind retrieval procedure given the instrumental characteristics. It was found that a maximum likelihood estimation procedure to obtain the coefficients of a reformulated sigma deg to wind relationship should use radar measurements in logarithmic rather than physical space, and use winds as the wind components rather than wind speed and direction. Doing this, a much more accurate transfer function than the one currently operated by ESA was derived. Sigma deg measurement space shows no signature of a separation in an upwind solution cone and a downwind solution cone. As such signature was anticipated in ESA's wind direction ambiguity removal algorithm, reconsideration of the procedure is necessary. Despite the fact that revisions have to be made in the process of wind retrieval; a grid potential is shown for scatterometry in meteorology and climatology.

  10. SeaWinds Scatterometer Wind Vector Retrievals Within Hurricanes Using AMSR and NEXRAD to Perform Corrections for Precipitation Effects: Comparison of AMSR and NEXRAD Retrievals of Rain

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Weissman, David E.; Hristova-Veleva, Svetla; Callahan, Philip

    2006-01-01

    The opportunity provided by satellite scatterometers to measure ocean surface winds in strong storms and hurricanes is diminished by the errors in the received backscatter (SIGMA-0) caused by the attenuation, scattering and surface roughening produced by heavy rain. Providing a good rain correction is a very challenging problem, particularly at Ku band (13.4 GHz) where rain effects are strong. Corrections to the scatterometer measurements of ocean surface winds can be pursued with either of two different methods: empirical or physical modeling. The latter method is employed in this study because of the availability of near simultaneous and collocated measurements provided by the MIDORI-II suite of instruments. The AMSR was designed to measure atmospheric water-related parameters on a spatial scale comparable to the SeaWinds scatterometer. These quantities can be converted into volumetric attenuation and scattering at the Ku-band frequency of SeaWinds. Optimal estimates of the volume backscatter and attenuation require a knowledge of the three dimensional distribution of reflectivity on a scale comparable to that of the precipitation. Studies selected near the US coastline enable the much higher resolution NEXRAD reflectivity measurements evaluate the AMSR estimates. We are also conducting research into the effects of different beam geometries and nonuniform beamfilling of precipitation within the field-of-view of the AMSR and the scatterometer. Furthermore, both AMSR and NEXRAD estimates of atmospheric correction can be used to produce corrected SIGMA-0s, which are then input to the JPL wind retrieval algorithm.

  11. Mars Pathfinder Landing Site: Evidence for a Change in Wind Regime from Lander and Orbiter Data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Greeley, Ronald; Kraft, Michael D.; Kuzmin, Ruslan O.; Bridges, Nathan T.

    2000-01-01

    Surface features related to the wind are observed in the vicinity of the Mars Pathfinder (MPR landing site data from the lander and in data from orbit by the Viking Orbiter and Mars Global Surveyor missions. Features seen from the surface include wind tails associated with small rocks, barchanoid duneforms, ripplelike patterns, and ventifact flutes cut into some rocks. Features seen from orbit include wind tails associated with impact craters, ridges inferred to be duneforms, and modified crater rims interpreted to have been eroded and mantled by windblown material. The orientations of these features show two prevailing directions. One is inferred to represent winds from the northeast, which is consistent with strongest winds predicted by a general circulation model to occur during the Martian northern winter under current conditions. A second wind blowing from the ESE was responsible for modifying the crater rims and cutting some of the ventifacts. The two wind regimes could reflect a change in climate related to Mars' obliquity or some other, unknown factor. Regardless of the cause, the MPF area has been subjected to a complex pattern of winds and supply of small particles, and the original surface formed by sedimentary processes from Tiu and Ares Vallis flooding events has been modified by repeated burial and exhumation.

  12. Wave spectral response to sudden changes in wind direction in finite-depth waters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aijaz, Saima; Rogers, W. Erick; Babanin, Alexander V.

    2016-07-01

    The response of a wind-sea spectrum to sudden changes in wind directions of 180° and 90° is investigated. Numerical simulations using the third-generation wave spectral model SWAN have been undertaken at micro timescales of 30 s and fine spatial resolution of less than 10 m. The results have been validated against the wave data collected during the field campaign at Lake George, Australia. The newly implemented 'ST6' physics in the SWAN model has been evaluated using a selection of bottom-friction terms and the two available functions for the nonlinear energy transfer: (1) exact solution of the nonlinear term (XNL), and (2) discrete interactions approximation (DIA) that parameterizes the nonlinear term. Good agreement of the modelled data is demonstrated directly with the field data and through the known experimental growth curves obtained from the extensive Lake George data set. The modelling results show that of the various combinations of models tested, the ST6/XNL model provides the most reliable computations of integral and spectral wave parameters. When the winds and waves are opposing (180° wind turn), the XNL is nearly twice as fast in the aligning the young wind-sea with the new wind direction than the DIA. In this case, the young wind-sea gradually decouples from the old waves and forms a new secondary peak. Unlike the 180° wind turn, there is no decoupling in the 90° wind turn and the entire spectrum rotates smoothly in the new direction. In both cases, the young wind-sea starts developing in the new wind direction within 10 min of the wind turn for the ST6 while the directional response of the default physics lags behind with a response time that is nearly double of ST6. The modelling results highlight the differences in source term balance among the different models in SWAN. During high wind speeds, the default settings provide a larger contribution from the bottom-friction dissipation than the whitecapping. In contrast, the whitecapping

  13. 2. Wind speed change in central Europe: the projections based on regional climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Siedlecki, M.

    2010-09-01

    This work presents dynamically downscaled near-surface wind speed fields and examines the impact of climate changes on wind speed across central Europe. The analysis is based on regional model simulation (5 RCM simulations taken from the project PRUDENCE and CLM regional climate model from M&D group) forced by IPCC emission scenario SRES - A2. Each model provided data from two 30-year simulations: a control run under present day climate conditions for the period 1961-90 and a simulation under conditions projected for the period 2021-2050. The research domain covered region from 42°N to 62°N and from 6°E to 36°E. The model ensemble shows a possible increase in future mean wind speed during winter season, especially over zonal belt from North German to North Poland where the future mean wind speed is 0.4 m/s higher than in the control period. The projected climate change in summer over most research domain shows a decrease of mean wind speed (about 0.2 m/s). The Jutland Peninsula and North German is the region with the highest simulated wind speed. The simulated changes are more pronounced in 95th percentile than in the mean. In winter, the values of the 95th percentile will increase over the North German, Jutland Peninsula and North Poland but the highest change is projected over east coast of Baltic Sea (1m/s).

  14. Climate change influences on global distributions of dengue and chikungunya virus vectors.

    PubMed

    Campbell, Lindsay P; Luther, Caylor; Moo-Llanes, David; Ramsey, Janine M; Danis-Lozano, Rogelio; Peterson, A Townsend

    2015-04-01

    Numerous recent studies have illuminated global distributions of human cases of dengue and other mosquito-transmitted diseases, yet the potential distributions of key vector species have not been incorporated integrally into those mapping efforts. Projections onto future conditions to illuminate potential distributional shifts in coming decades are similarly lacking, at least outside Europe. This study examined the global potential distributions of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus in relation to climatic variation worldwide to develop ecological niche models that, in turn, allowed anticipation of possible changes in distributional patterns into the future. Results indicated complex global rearrangements of potential distributional areas, which--given the impressive dispersal abilities of these two species--are likely to translate into actual distributional shifts. This exercise also signalled a crucial priority: digitization and sharing of existing distributional data so that models of this sort can be developed more rigorously, as present availability of such data is fragmentary and woefully incomplete.

  15. Climate change influences on global distributions of dengue and chikungunya virus vectors.

    PubMed

    Campbell, Lindsay P; Luther, Caylor; Moo-Llanes, David; Ramsey, Janine M; Danis-Lozano, Rogelio; Peterson, A Townsend

    2015-04-01

    Numerous recent studies have illuminated global distributions of human cases of dengue and other mosquito-transmitted diseases, yet the potential distributions of key vector species have not been incorporated integrally into those mapping efforts. Projections onto future conditions to illuminate potential distributional shifts in coming decades are similarly lacking, at least outside Europe. This study examined the global potential distributions of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus in relation to climatic variation worldwide to develop ecological niche models that, in turn, allowed anticipation of possible changes in distributional patterns into the future. Results indicated complex global rearrangements of potential distributional areas, which--given the impressive dispersal abilities of these two species--are likely to translate into actual distributional shifts. This exercise also signalled a crucial priority: digitization and sharing of existing distributional data so that models of this sort can be developed more rigorously, as present availability of such data is fragmentary and woefully incomplete. PMID:25688023

  16. DOE SBIR Phase II Final Technical Report - Assessing Climate Change Effects on Wind Energy

    SciTech Connect

    Whiteman, Cameron; Capps, Scott

    2014-11-05

    Specialized Vertum Partners software tools were prototyped, tested and commercialized to allow wind energy stakeholders to assess the uncertainties of climate change on wind power production and distribution. This project resulted in three commercially proven products and a marketing tool. The first was a Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) based resource evaluation system. The second was a web-based service providing global 10m wind data from multiple sources to wind industry subscription customers. The third product addressed the needs of our utility clients looking at climate change effects on electricity distribution. For this we collaborated on the Santa Ana Wildfire Threat Index (SAWTi), which was released publicly last quarter. Finally to promote these products and educate potential users we released “Gust or Bust”, a graphic-novel styled marketing publication.

  17. Limited change in dune mobility in response to a large decrease in wind power in semi-arid northern China since the 1970s

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mason, J.A.; Swinehart, J.B.; Lu, H.; Miao, X.; Cha, P.; Zhou, Y.

    2008-01-01

    The climatic controls on dune mobility, especially the relative importance of wind strength, remain incompletely understood. This is a key research problem in semi-arid northern China, both for interpreting past dune activity as evidence of paleoclimate and for predicting future environmental change. Potential eolian sand transport, which is approximately proportional to wind power above the threshold for sand entrainment, has decreased across much of northern China since the 1970s. Over the same period, effective moisture (ratio of precipitation to potential evapotranspiration) has not changed significantly. This "natural experiment" provides insight on the relative importance of wind power as a control on dune mobility in three dunefields of northern China (Mu Us, Otindag, and Horqin), although poorly understood and potentially large effects of human land use complicate interpretation. Dune forms in these three regions are consistent with sand transport vectors inferred from weather station data, suggesting that wind directions have remained stable and the stations adequately represent winds that shaped the dunes. The predicted effect of weaker winds since the 1970s would be dune stabilization, with lower sand transport rates allowing vegetation cover to expand. Large portions of all three dunefields remained stabilized by vegetation in the 1970s despite high wind power. Since the 1970s, trends in remotely sensed vegetation greenness and change in mobile dune area inferred from sequential Landsat images do indicate widespread dune stabilization in the eastern Mu Us region. On the other hand, expansion of active dunes took place farther west in the Mu Us dunefield and especially in the central Otindag dunefield, with little overall change in two parts of the Horqin dunes. Better ground truth is needed to validate the remote sensing analyses, but results presented here place limits on the relative importance of wind strength as a control on dune mobility in the

  18. Daily changes of individual gait patterns identified by means of support vector machines.

    PubMed

    Horst, F; Kramer, F; Schäfer, B; Eekhoff, A; Hegen, P; Nigg, B M; Schöllhorn, W I

    2016-09-01

    Despite the common knowledge about the individual character of human gait patterns and about their non-repeatability, little is known about their stability, their interactions and their changes over time. Variations of gait patterns are typically described as random deviations around a stable mean curve derived from groups, which appear due to noise or experimental insufficiencies. The purpose of this study is to examine the nature of intrinsic inter-session variability in more detail by proving separable characteristics of gait patterns between individuals as well as within individuals in repeated measurement sessions. Eight healthy subjects performed 15 gait trials at a self-selected speed on eight days within two weeks. For each trial, the time-continuous ground reaction forces and lower body kinematics were quantified. A total of 960 gait patterns were analysed by means of support vector machines and the coefficient of multiple correlation. The results emphasise the remarkable amount of individual characteristics in human gait. Support vector machines results showed an error-free assignment of gait patterns to the corresponding individual. Thus, differences in gait patterns between individuals seem to be persistent over two weeks. Within the range of individual gait patterns, day specific characteristics could be distinguished by classification rates of 97.3% and 59.5% for the eight-day classification of lower body joint angles and ground reaction forces, respectively. Hence, gait patterns can be assumed not to be constant over time and rather exhibit discernible daily changes within previously stated good repeatability. Advantages for more individual and situational diagnoses or therapy are identified.

  19. Seasonal changes in the apparent position of the Sun as elementary applications of vector operations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Levine, Jonathan

    2014-11-01

    Many introductory courses in physics face an unpleasant chicken-and-egg problem. One might choose to introduce students to physical quantities such as velocity, acceleration, and momentum in over-simplified one-dimensional applications before introducing vectors and their manipulation; or one might first introduce vectors as mathematical objects and defer demonstration of their physical utility. This paper offers a solution to this pedagogical problem: elementary vector operations can be used without mechanics concepts to understand variations in the solar latitude, duration of daylight, and orientation of the rising and setting Sun. I show how sunrise and sunset phenomena lend themselves to exercises with scalar products, vector products, unit vectors, and vector projections that can be useful for introducing vector analysis in the context of physics.

  20. Southern Hemisphere Westerly Wind Changes during the Last Glacial Maximum: Paleo-data Synthesis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kohfeld, Karen; Graham, Robert; De Boer, Agatha; Sime, Louise; Wolff, Eric; Le Quéré, Corinne; Bopp, Laurent

    2013-04-01

    Changes in the strength and position of Southern Hemisphere westerly winds during the last glacial cycle have been invoked to explain glacial-interglacial climate fluctuations. However, neither paleo models nor paleodata agree on the magnitude, or even the sign, of the change in wind strength and latitude during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), compared to the recent past. This study synthesizes paleo-environmental data that have been used to infer changes in winds during the LGM compared with the late Holocene. These compilations include changes in terrestrial moisture, dust deposition, and ocean productivity, along with summaries of previously published information on sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and ocean dynamics in the Southern Hemisphere. Our compilations of terrestrial moisture from 94 sites and dust deposition from 87 sites show generally drier conditions for the LGM between 0 and 40°S, with wetter conditions along the west coasts and drying along the east coasts of continents. LGM dust deposition rates ranged from 2 to 4.5 times higher over the Southern Ocean and about 13 times higher over the Antarctic continent. For the oceans, reconstructed changes in SSTs show maximum cooling (>4°C) in the modern-day Subantarctic Zone, coincident with a region of enhanced export production during the LGM compared with today. We find that any hypothesis of LGM wind and climate change needs to provide a plausible explanation for increased moisture on the west coast of continents, cooler temperatures and higher productivity in the Subantarctic Zone, and reductions in Agulhas leakage around southern Africa. Our comparison suggests that an overall strengthening, an equatorward displacement, or no change at all in winds could all be interpreted as consistent with observations. If a single cause related to the southern westerlies is sought for all the evidence presented, then an equatorward displacement or strengthening of the winds would be consistent with the largest

  1. Winds of Change: How Black Holes May Shape Galaxies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    2010-03-01

    New observations from NASA's Chandra X-ray Observatory provide evidence for powerful winds blowing away from the vicinity of a supermassive black hole in a nearby galaxy. This discovery indicates that "average" supermassive black holes may play an important role in the evolution of the galaxies in which they reside. For years, astronomers have known that a supermassive black hole grows in parallel with its host galaxy. And, it has long been suspected that material blown away from a black hole - as opposed to the fraction of material that falls into it -- alters the evolution of its host galaxy. A key question is whether such "black hole blowback" typically delivers enough power to have a significant impact. Powerful relativistic jets shot away from the biggest supermassive black holes in large, central galaxies in clusters like Perseus are seen to shape their host galaxies, but these are rare. What about less powerful, less focused galaxy-scale winds that should be much more common? "We're more interested here in seeing what an "average"-sized supermassive black hole can do to its galaxy, not the few, really big ones in the biggest galaxies," said Dan Evans of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology who presented these results at the High Energy Astrophysics Division of the American Astronomical Society meeting in Kona, Hawaii. Evans and his colleagues used Chandra for five days to observe NGC 1068, one of the nearest and brightest galaxies containing a rapidly growing supermassive black hole. This black hole is only about twice as massive as the one in the center of our Galaxy, which is considered to be a rather ordinary size. The X-ray images and spectra obtained using Chandra's High Energy Transmission Grating Spectrometer (HETGS) showed that a strong wind is being driven away from the center of NGC 1068 at a rate of about a million miles per hour. This wind is likely generated as surrounding gas is accelerated and heated as it swirls toward the black hole. A

  2. Determination of statistics for any rotation of axes of a bivariate normal elliptical distribution. [of wind vector components

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Falls, L. W.; Crutcher, H. L.

    1976-01-01

    Transformation of statistics from a dimensional set to another dimensional set involves linear functions of the original set of statistics. Similarly, linear functions will transform statistics within a dimensional set such that the new statistics are relevant to a new set of coordinate axes. A restricted case of the latter is the rotation of axes in a coordinate system involving any two correlated random variables. A special case is the transformation for horizontal wind distributions. Wind statistics are usually provided in terms of wind speed and direction (measured clockwise from north) or in east-west and north-south components. A direct application of this technique allows the determination of appropriate wind statistics parallel and normal to any preselected flight path of a space vehicle. Among the constraints for launching space vehicles are critical values selected from the distribution of the expected winds parallel to and normal to the flight path. These procedures are applied to space vehicle launches at Cape Kennedy, Florida.

  3. Comparison of special sensor microwave imager vector wind stress with model-derived and subjective products for the tropical Pacific

    SciTech Connect

    Busalacchi, A.J.; Atlas, R.M. ); Hackert, E.C. )

    1993-04-15

    The authors address the role of wind data in the development of general ocean circulation model studies. Satellite scatterometry has been proposed, but only minimally implemented, as a means of providing global information on ocean surface wind speed and direction. However, a number of microwave systems have monitored wind speed information on a global scale, some over extended periods of time, which provide day-to-day coverage, compared to the sparse information available from ship or buoy data collections. Recently data from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program special sensor microwave imager, for the period July 1987 to June 1988 was utilized, in conjunction with conventional data collections to build a model system which included wind directions. The authors here take this data set and use it as a forcing function in a general ocean circulation model study. Their interest is in knowing if this gives results comparable with such data sets built from much more limited observational and subjective analysis. The results are encouraging, and they suggest reexamination of earlier information collections with the idea of reconstructing ocean surface wind speed and direction data sets to be used in further modeling studies.

  4. Cytoplasmic pH dynamics in maize pulvinal cells induced by gravity vector changes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johannes, E.; Collings, D. A.; Rink, J. C.; Allen, N. S.; Brown, C. S. (Principal Investigator)

    2001-01-01

    In maize (Zea mays) and other grasses, changes in orientation of stems are perceived by pulvinal tissue, which responds to the stimulus by differential growth resulting in upward bending of the stem. The amyloplast-containing bundle sheath cells are the sites of gravity perception, although the initial steps of gravity perception and transmission remain unclear. In columella cells of Arabidopsis roots, we previously found that cytoplasmic pH (pH(c)) is a mediator in early gravitropic signaling (A.C. Scott, N.S. Allen [1999] Plant Physiol 121: 1291-1298). The question arises whether pH(c) has a more general role in signaling gravity vector changes. Using confocal ratiometric imaging and the fluorescent pH indicator carboxy seminaphtorhodafluor acetoxymethyl ester acetate, we measured pH(c) in the cells composing the maize pulvinus. When stem slices were gravistimulated and imaged on a horizontally mounted confocal microscope, pH(c) changes were only apparent within the bundle sheath cells, and not in the parenchyma cells. After turning, cytoplasmic acidification was observed at the sides of the cells, whereas the cytoplasm at the base of the cells where plastids slowly accumulated became more basic. These changes were most apparent in cells exhibiting net amyloplast sedimentation. Parenchyma cells and isolated bundle sheath cells did not show any gravity-induced pH(c) changes although all cell types responded to external stimuli in the predicted way: Propionic acid and auxin treatments induced acidification, whereas raising the external pH caused alkalinization. The results suggest that pH(c) has an important role in the early signaling pathways of maize stem gravitropism.

  5. Cytoplasmic pH dynamics in maize pulvinal cells induced by gravity vector changes.

    PubMed

    Johannes, E; Collings, D A; Rink, J C; Allen, N S

    2001-09-01

    In maize (Zea mays) and other grasses, changes in orientation of stems are perceived by pulvinal tissue, which responds to the stimulus by differential growth resulting in upward bending of the stem. The amyloplast-containing bundle sheath cells are the sites of gravity perception, although the initial steps of gravity perception and transmission remain unclear. In columella cells of Arabidopsis roots, we previously found that cytoplasmic pH (pH(c)) is a mediator in early gravitropic signaling (A.C. Scott, N.S. Allen [1999] Plant Physiol 121: 1291-1298). The question arises whether pH(c) has a more general role in signaling gravity vector changes. Using confocal ratiometric imaging and the fluorescent pH indicator carboxy seminaphtorhodafluor acetoxymethyl ester acetate, we measured pH(c) in the cells composing the maize pulvinus. When stem slices were gravistimulated and imaged on a horizontally mounted confocal microscope, pH(c) changes were only apparent within the bundle sheath cells, and not in the parenchyma cells. After turning, cytoplasmic acidification was observed at the sides of the cells, whereas the cytoplasm at the base of the cells where plastids slowly accumulated became more basic. These changes were most apparent in cells exhibiting net amyloplast sedimentation. Parenchyma cells and isolated bundle sheath cells did not show any gravity-induced pH(c) changes although all cell types responded to external stimuli in the predicted way: Propionic acid and auxin treatments induced acidification, whereas raising the external pH caused alkalinization. The results suggest that pH(c) has an important role in the early signaling pathways of maize stem gravitropism. PMID:11553740

  6. Cytoplasmic pH dynamics in maize pulvinal cells induced by gravity vector changes.

    PubMed

    Johannes, E; Collings, D A; Rink, J C; Allen, N S

    2001-09-01

    In maize (Zea mays) and other grasses, changes in orientation of stems are perceived by pulvinal tissue, which responds to the stimulus by differential growth resulting in upward bending of the stem. The amyloplast-containing bundle sheath cells are the sites of gravity perception, although the initial steps of gravity perception and transmission remain unclear. In columella cells of Arabidopsis roots, we previously found that cytoplasmic pH (pH(c)) is a mediator in early gravitropic signaling (A.C. Scott, N.S. Allen [1999] Plant Physiol 121: 1291-1298). The question arises whether pH(c) has a more general role in signaling gravity vector changes. Using confocal ratiometric imaging and the fluorescent pH indicator carboxy seminaphtorhodafluor acetoxymethyl ester acetate, we measured pH(c) in the cells composing the maize pulvinus. When stem slices were gravistimulated and imaged on a horizontally mounted confocal microscope, pH(c) changes were only apparent within the bundle sheath cells, and not in the parenchyma cells. After turning, cytoplasmic acidification was observed at the sides of the cells, whereas the cytoplasm at the base of the cells where plastids slowly accumulated became more basic. These changes were most apparent in cells exhibiting net amyloplast sedimentation. Parenchyma cells and isolated bundle sheath cells did not show any gravity-induced pH(c) changes although all cell types responded to external stimuli in the predicted way: Propionic acid and auxin treatments induced acidification, whereas raising the external pH caused alkalinization. The results suggest that pH(c) has an important role in the early signaling pathways of maize stem gravitropism.

  7. A Bacterial Parasite Effector Mediates Insect Vector Attraction in Host Plants Independently of Developmental Changes.

    PubMed

    Orlovskis, Zigmunds; Hogenhout, Saskia A

    2016-01-01

    Parasites can take over their hosts and trigger dramatic changes in host appearance and behavior that are typically interpreted as extended phenotypes that promote parasite survival and fitness. For example, Toxoplasma gondii is thought to manipulate the behaviors of infected rodents to aid transmission to cats and parasitic trematodes of the genus Ribeiroia alter limb development in their amphibian hosts to facilitate predation of the latter by birds. Plant parasites and pathogens also reprogram host development and morphology. However, whereas some parasite-induced morphological alterations may have a direct benefit to the fitness of the parasite and may therefore be adaptive, other host alterations may be side effects of parasite infections having no adaptive effects on parasite fitness. Phytoplasma parasites of plants often induce the development of leaf-like flowers (phyllody) in their host plants, and we previously found that the phytoplasma effector SAP54 generates these leaf-like flowers via the degradation of plant MADS-box transcription factors (MTFs), which regulate all major aspects of development in plants. Leafhoppers prefer to reproduce on phytoplasma-infected and SAP54-trangenic plants leading to the hypothesis that leafhopper vectors are attracted to plants with leaf-like flowers. Surprisingly, here we show that leafhopper attraction occurs independently of the presence of leaf-like flowers. First, the leafhoppers were also attracted to SAP54 transgenic plants without leaf-like flowers and to single leaves of these plants. Moreover, leafhoppers were not attracted to leaf-like flowers of MTF-mutant plants without the presence of SAP54. Thus, the primary role of SAP54 is to attract leafhopper vectors, which spread the phytoplasmas, and the generation of leaf-like flowers may be secondary or a side effect of the SAP54-mediated degradation of MTFs. PMID:27446117

  8. A Bacterial Parasite Effector Mediates Insect Vector Attraction in Host Plants Independently of Developmental Changes

    PubMed Central

    Orlovskis, Zigmunds; Hogenhout, Saskia A.

    2016-01-01

    Parasites can take over their hosts and trigger dramatic changes in host appearance and behavior that are typically interpreted as extended phenotypes that promote parasite survival and fitness. For example, Toxoplasma gondii is thought to manipulate the behaviors of infected rodents to aid transmission to cats and parasitic trematodes of the genus Ribeiroia alter limb development in their amphibian hosts to facilitate predation of the latter by birds. Plant parasites and pathogens also reprogram host development and morphology. However, whereas some parasite-induced morphological alterations may have a direct benefit to the fitness of the parasite and may therefore be adaptive, other host alterations may be side effects of parasite infections having no adaptive effects on parasite fitness. Phytoplasma parasites of plants often induce the development of leaf-like flowers (phyllody) in their host plants, and we previously found that the phytoplasma effector SAP54 generates these leaf-like flowers via the degradation of plant MADS-box transcription factors (MTFs), which regulate all major aspects of development in plants. Leafhoppers prefer to reproduce on phytoplasma-infected and SAP54-trangenic plants leading to the hypothesis that leafhopper vectors are attracted to plants with leaf-like flowers. Surprisingly, here we show that leafhopper attraction occurs independently of the presence of leaf-like flowers. First, the leafhoppers were also attracted to SAP54 transgenic plants without leaf-like flowers and to single leaves of these plants. Moreover, leafhoppers were not attracted to leaf-like flowers of MTF-mutant plants without the presence of SAP54. Thus, the primary role of SAP54 is to attract leafhopper vectors, which spread the phytoplasmas, and the generation of leaf-like flowers may be secondary or a side effect of the SAP54-mediated degradation of MTFs. PMID:27446117

  9. Impact of changing wind conditions on foraging and incubation success in male and female wandering albatrosses.

    PubMed

    Cornioley, Tina; Börger, Luca; Ozgul, Arpat; Weimerskirch, Henri

    2016-09-01

    Wind is an important climatic factor for flying animals as by affecting their locomotion, it can deeply impact their life-history characteristics. In the context of globally changing wind patterns, we investigated the mechanisms underlying recently reported increase in body mass of a population of wandering albatrosses (Diomedea exulans) with increasing wind speed over time. We built a foraging model detailing the effects of wind on movement statistics and ultimately on mass gained by the forager and mass lost by the incubating partner. We then simulated the body mass of incubating pairs under varying wind scenarios. We tracked the frequency at which critical mass leading to nest abandonment was reached to assess incubation success. We found that wandering albatrosses behave as time minimizers during incubation as mass gain was independent of any movement statistics but decreased with increasing mass at departure. Individuals forage until their energy requirements, which are determined by their body conditions, are fulfilled. This can come at the cost of their partner's condition as mass loss of the incubating partner depended on trip duration. This behaviour is consistent with strategies of long-lived species which favoured their own survival over their current reproductive attempt. In addition, wind speed increased ground speed which in turn reduced trip duration and males foraged further away than females at high ground speed. Contrasted against an independent data set, the simulation performed satisfactorily for males but less so for females under current wind conditions. The simulation predicted an increase in male body mass growth rate with increasing wind speed, whereas females' rate decreased. This trend may provide an explanation for the observed increase in mass of males but not of females. Conversely, the simulation predicted very few nest abandonments, which is in line with the high breeding success of this species and is contrary to the hypothesis that

  10. Impact of changing wind conditions on foraging and incubation success in male and female wandering albatrosses.

    PubMed

    Cornioley, Tina; Börger, Luca; Ozgul, Arpat; Weimerskirch, Henri

    2016-09-01

    Wind is an important climatic factor for flying animals as by affecting their locomotion, it can deeply impact their life-history characteristics. In the context of globally changing wind patterns, we investigated the mechanisms underlying recently reported increase in body mass of a population of wandering albatrosses (Diomedea exulans) with increasing wind speed over time. We built a foraging model detailing the effects of wind on movement statistics and ultimately on mass gained by the forager and mass lost by the incubating partner. We then simulated the body mass of incubating pairs under varying wind scenarios. We tracked the frequency at which critical mass leading to nest abandonment was reached to assess incubation success. We found that wandering albatrosses behave as time minimizers during incubation as mass gain was independent of any movement statistics but decreased with increasing mass at departure. Individuals forage until their energy requirements, which are determined by their body conditions, are fulfilled. This can come at the cost of their partner's condition as mass loss of the incubating partner depended on trip duration. This behaviour is consistent with strategies of long-lived species which favoured their own survival over their current reproductive attempt. In addition, wind speed increased ground speed which in turn reduced trip duration and males foraged further away than females at high ground speed. Contrasted against an independent data set, the simulation performed satisfactorily for males but less so for females under current wind conditions. The simulation predicted an increase in male body mass growth rate with increasing wind speed, whereas females' rate decreased. This trend may provide an explanation for the observed increase in mass of males but not of females. Conversely, the simulation predicted very few nest abandonments, which is in line with the high breeding success of this species and is contrary to the hypothesis that

  11. Calcium mobilizations in response to changes in the gravity vector in Arabidopsis seedlings: possible cellular mechanisms.

    PubMed

    Tatsumi, Hitoshi; Toyota, Masatsugu; Furuichi, Takuya; Sokabe, Masahiro

    2014-01-01

    Gravity influences the growth direction of higher plants. Changes in the gravity vector (gravistimulation) immediately promote the increase in the cytoplasmic free calcium ion concentration ([Ca(2+)]c) in Arabidopsis (Arabidopsis thaliana) seedlings. When the seedlings are gravistimulated by reorientation at 180°, a transient two peaked (biphasic) [Ca(2+)]c-increase arises in their hypocotyl and petioles. Parabolic flights (PFs) can generate a variety of gravity-stimuli, and enables us to measure gravity-induced [Ca(2+)]c-increases without specimen rotation, which demonstrate that Arabidopsis seedlings possess a rapid gravity-sensing mechanism linearly transducing a wide range of gravitational changes into Ca(2+) signals on a sub-second timescale. Hypergravity by centrifugation (20 g or 300 g) also induces similar transient [Ca(2+)]c-increases. In this review, we propose models for possible cellular processes of the garavi-stimulus-induced [Ca(2+)]c-increase, and evaluate those by examining whether the model fits well with the kinetic parameters derived from the [Ca(2+)]c-increases obtained by applying gravistimulus with different amplitudes and time sequences.

  12. Calcium mobilizations in response to changes in the gravity vector in Arabidopsis seedlings

    PubMed Central

    Tatsumi, Hitoshi; Toyota, Masatsugu; Furuichi, Takuya; Sokabe, Masahiro

    2014-01-01

    Gravity influences the growth direction of higher plants. Changes in the gravity vector (gravistimulation) immediately promote the increase in the cytoplasmic free calcium ion concentration ([Ca2+]c) in Arabidopsis (Arabidopsis thaliana) seedlings. When the seedlings are gravistimulated by reorientation at 180°, a transient two peaked (biphasic) [Ca2+]c-increase arises in their hypocotyl and petioles. Parabolic flights (PFs) can generate a variety of gravity-stimuli, and enables us to measure gravity-induced [Ca2+]c-increases without specimen rotation, which demonstrate that Arabidopsis seedlings possess a rapid gravity-sensing mechanism linearly transducing a wide range of gravitational changes into Ca2+ signals on a sub-second timescale. Hypergravity by centrifugation (20 g or 300 g) also induces similar transient [Ca2+]c-increases. In this review, we propose models for possible cellular processes of the garavi-stimulus-induced [Ca2+]c-increase, and evaluate those by examining whether the model fits well with the kinetic parameters derived from the [Ca2+]c-increases obtained by applying gravistimulus with different amplitudes and time sequences. PMID:25763612

  13. Climate Change and Spatiotemporal Distributions of Vector-Borne Diseases in Nepal – A Systematic Synthesis of Literature

    PubMed Central

    Dhimal, Meghnath; Ahrens, Bodo; Kuch, Ulrich

    2015-01-01

    Background Despite its largely mountainous terrain for which this Himalayan country is a popular tourist destination, Nepal is now endemic for five major vector-borne diseases (VBDs), namely malaria, lymphatic filariasis, Japanese encephalitis, visceral leishmaniasis and dengue fever. There is increasing evidence about the impacts of climate change on VBDs especially in tropical highlands and temperate regions. Our aim is to explore whether the observed spatiotemporal distributions of VBDs in Nepal can be related to climate change. Methodology A systematic literature search was performed and summarized information on climate change and the spatiotemporal distribution of VBDs in Nepal from the published literature until December2014 following providing items for systematic review and meta-analysis (PRISMA) guidelines. Principal Findings We found 12 studies that analysed the trend of climatic data and are relevant for the study of VBDs, 38 studies that dealt with the spatial and temporal distribution of disease vectors and disease transmission. Among 38 studies, only eight studies assessed the association of VBDs with climatic variables. Our review highlights a pronounced warming in the mountains and an expansion of autochthonous cases of VBDs to non-endemic areas including mountain regions (i.e., at least 2,000 m above sea level). Furthermore, significant relationships between climatic variables and VBDs and their vectors are found in short-term studies. Conclusion Taking into account the weak health care systems and difficult geographic terrain of Nepal, increasing trade and movements of people, a lack of vector control interventions, observed relationships between climatic variables and VBDs and their vectors and the establishment of relevant disease vectors already at least 2,000 m above sea level, we conclude that climate change can intensify the risk of VBD epidemics in the mountain regions of Nepal if other non-climatic drivers of VBDs remain constant. PMID

  14. Downscaling of precipitation for climate change scenarios: A support vector machine approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tripathi, Shivam; Srinivas, V. V.; Nanjundiah, Ravi S.

    2006-11-01

    SummaryThe Climate impact studies in hydrology often rely on climate change information at fine spatial resolution. However, general circulation models (GCMs), which are among the most advanced tools for estimating future climate change scenarios, operate on a coarse scale. Therefore the output from a GCM has to be downscaled to obtain the information relevant to hydrologic studies. In this paper, a support vector machine (SVM) approach is proposed for statistical downscaling of precipitation at monthly time scale. The effectiveness of this approach is illustrated through its application to meteorological sub-divisions (MSDs) in India. First, climate variables affecting spatio-temporal variation of precipitation at each MSD in India are identified. Following this, the data pertaining to the identified climate variables (predictors) at each MSD are classified using cluster analysis to form two groups, representing wet and dry seasons. For each MSD, SVM- based downscaling model (DM) is developed for season(s) with significant rainfall using principal components extracted from the predictors as input and the contemporaneous precipitation observed at the MSD as an output. The proposed DM is shown to be superior to conventional downscaling using multi-layer back-propagation artificial neural networks. Subsequently, the SVM-based DM is applied to future climate predictions from the second generation Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM2) to obtain future projections of precipitation for the MSDs. The results are then analyzed to assess the impact of climate change on precipitation over India. It is shown that SVMs provide a promising alternative to conventional artificial neural networks for statistical downscaling, and are suitable for conducting climate impact studies.

  15. Surveillance of vector-borne diseases in Germany: trends and challenges in the view of disease emergence and climate change.

    PubMed

    Jansen, Andreas; Frank, Christina; Koch, Judith; Stark, Klaus

    2008-12-01

    The changing epidemiology of vector-borne diseases represents a growing threat to human health. Contemporary surveillance systems have to adapt to these changes. We describe temporal trends and geographic origins of vector-borne diseases in Germany with regard to strengths of existing disease surveillance and to areas marked for improvement. We focused on hantavirus infection (endemic in Germany), chikungunya fever (recently emerging in Europe) and dengue fever (imported from tropical regions), representing important subgroups of vector-borne infections. Routine surveillance data on demographics, origin of infection and the date of reporting were analysed. From 2001 through 2007, 3,005 symptomatic hantavirus infections, and 85 cases of chikungunya fever were reported, similarly 1,048 cases of dengue fever in 2002 through 2007. The geographic origin of hantavirus infection was reported for 95.5% of all cases (dengue virus, 98.4%; chikungunya virus, 100%). Hantavirus infections were acquired in Germany in 97.6% of cases (n = 2800). In 2007, there was a marked increase of hantavirus cases, mainly in areas known to be endemic for hantavirus. In 2006, imported cases of chikungunya fever primarily returned from several islands of the Indian Ocean, while the majority of imported cases in 2007 came from India. The reported number of dengue fever cases have increased since 2004. Thailand contributed the largest proportion of cases (17-43% in individual years), followed by India, Brazil and Indonesia. Surveillance of notifiable vector-borne diseases in Germany is able to timely detect spatial and temporal changes of autochthonous an imported infections. Geographic and temporal data obtained by routine surveillance served as a basis for public health recommendations. In addition to surveillance of vector-borne infections in humans, nationwide monitoring programs and inventory techniques for emerging and reemerging vectors and for wildlife disease are warranted.

  16. Surveillance of vector-borne diseases in Germany: trends and challenges in the view of disease emergence and climate change.

    PubMed

    Jansen, Andreas; Frank, Christina; Koch, Judith; Stark, Klaus

    2008-12-01

    The changing epidemiology of vector-borne diseases represents a growing threat to human health. Contemporary surveillance systems have to adapt to these changes. We describe temporal trends and geographic origins of vector-borne diseases in Germany with regard to strengths of existing disease surveillance and to areas marked for improvement. We focused on hantavirus infection (endemic in Germany), chikungunya fever (recently emerging in Europe) and dengue fever (imported from tropical regions), representing important subgroups of vector-borne infections. Routine surveillance data on demographics, origin of infection and the date of reporting were analysed. From 2001 through 2007, 3,005 symptomatic hantavirus infections, and 85 cases of chikungunya fever were reported, similarly 1,048 cases of dengue fever in 2002 through 2007. The geographic origin of hantavirus infection was reported for 95.5% of all cases (dengue virus, 98.4%; chikungunya virus, 100%). Hantavirus infections were acquired in Germany in 97.6% of cases (n = 2800). In 2007, there was a marked increase of hantavirus cases, mainly in areas known to be endemic for hantavirus. In 2006, imported cases of chikungunya fever primarily returned from several islands of the Indian Ocean, while the majority of imported cases in 2007 came from India. The reported number of dengue fever cases have increased since 2004. Thailand contributed the largest proportion of cases (17-43% in individual years), followed by India, Brazil and Indonesia. Surveillance of notifiable vector-borne diseases in Germany is able to timely detect spatial and temporal changes of autochthonous an imported infections. Geographic and temporal data obtained by routine surveillance served as a basis for public health recommendations. In addition to surveillance of vector-borne infections in humans, nationwide monitoring programs and inventory techniques for emerging and reemerging vectors and for wildlife disease are warranted. PMID:19030882

  17. The impact of changes in the Antarctic wind field on the Southern Ocean sea ice

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haid, Verena; Iovino, Dorotea; Masina, Simona

    2016-04-01

    Satellite observations show an enlargement of the sea ice extent of the Southern Ocean in the last decades. A possible trigger for the increase is a change in the atmospheric circulation, which leads to a southward shift and intensification of the westerlies around Antarctica. We performed a sensitivity study with an eddy-permitting sea ice-ocean model forced by ERA-Interim data. We compare a set of numerical simulations with simple manipulations of the wind velocities in the forcing data and investigate the response of sea ice and on-shelf water properties. In our results, increases of the zonal wind component lead to the onset of deep convection in the Weddell Sea within 10 years (with one exception) and a reduction of sea ice. Manipulations of the meridional wind component can lead to an increase of ice extent and volume, but only if regions of strengthened northward wind alternate with regions of increased southward wind. The convergent drift against the shoreline is necessary to thicken the sea ice. Without it, enhanced northward drift leads to an exhanced ice extent during winter but combined with a loss of sea ice thickness which entails a strongly reduced ice extent during summer. For increases of the westward/eastward wind component at the Antarctic coastline, the on-shelf water temperatures increase/decrease due to Ekman pumping. Except for regions with more southerly winds, the manipulated forcing in all cases increases the sea ice production at the coastline and therefore the on-shelf waters are more saline. After a period of 10 years in all the experiments the increased wind results in a higher density of the on-shelf water column.

  18. An Ill Wind? Climate Change, Migration, and Health

    PubMed Central

    Barnett, Jon

    2012-01-01

    Background: Climate change is projected to cause substantial increases in population movement in coming decades. Previous research has considered the likely causal influences and magnitude of such movements and the risks to national and international security. There has been little research on the consequences of climate-related migration and the health of people who move. Objectives: In this review, we explore the role that health impacts of climate change may play in population movements and then examine the health implications of three types of movements likely to be induced by climate change: forcible displacement by climate impacts, resettlement schemes, and migration as an adaptive response. Methods: This risk assessment draws on research into the health of refugees, migrants, and people in resettlement schemes as analogs of the likely health consequences of climate-related migration. Some account is taken of the possible modulation of those health risks by climate change. Discussion: Climate-change–related migration is likely to result in adverse health outcomes, both for displaced and for host populations, particularly in situations of forced migration. However, where migration and other mobility are used as adaptive strategies, health risks are likely to be minimized, and in some cases there will be health gains. Conclusions: Purposeful and timely policy interventions can facilitate the mobility of people, enhance well-being, and maximize social and economic development in both places of origin and places of destination. Nevertheless, the anticipated occurrence of substantial relocation of groups and communities will underscore the fundamental seriousness of human-induced climate change. PMID:22266739

  19. Changes in measured vector magnetic fields when transformed into heliographic coordinates

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hagyard, M. J.

    1987-01-01

    The changes that occur in measured magnetic fields when they are transformed into a heliographic coordinate system are investigated. To carry out this investigation, measurements of the vector magnetic field of an active region that was observed at 1/3 the solar radius from disk center are taken, and the observed field is transformed into heliographic coordinates. Differences in the calculated potential field that occur when the heliographic normal component of the field is used as the boundary condition rather than the observed line-of-sight component are also examined. The results of this analysis show: (1) that the observed fields of sunspots more closely resemble the generally accepted picture of the distribution of umbral fields if they are displayed in heliographic coordinates; (2) that the differences in the potential calculations are less than 200 G in field strength and 20 deg in field azimuth outside sunspots; and (3) that differences in the two potential calculations in the sunspot areas are no more than 400 G in field strength but range from 60 to 80 deg in field azimuth in localized umbral areas.

  20. Detecting cross-equatorial wind change as a fingerprint of climate response to anthropogenic aerosol forcing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Hai; Xie, Shang-Ping; Tokinaga, Hiroki; Liu, Qinyu; Kosaka, Yu

    2016-04-01

    Anthropogenic aerosols are a major driver of the twetieth century climate change. In climate models, the aerosol forcing, larger in the Northern than Southern Hemispheres, induces an interhemispheric Hadley circulation. In support of the model result, we detected a robust change in the zonal mean cross-equatorial wind over the past 60 years from ship observations and reanalyses, accompanied by physically consistent changes in atmospheric pressure and marine cloud cover. Single-forcing experiments indicate that the observed change in cross-equatorial wind is a fingerprint of aerosol forcing. This zonal mean mode follows the evolution of global aerosol forcing that is distinct from regional changes in the Atlantic sector. Atmospheric simulations successfully reproduce this interhemispheric mode, indicating the importance of sea surface temperature mediation in response to anthropogenic aerosol forcing. As societies awaken to reduce aerosol emissions, a phase reversal of this interhemispheric mode is expected in the 21st century.

  1. [Physiological response of corn seedlings to changes of wind-sand flow strength].

    PubMed

    Zhao, Ha-lin; Li, Jin; Zhou, Rui-lian; Qu, Hao; Yun, Jian-ying; Pan, Cheng-chen

    2015-01-01

    Corn seedlings are often harmed by strong wind-sand in the spring in semi-arid wind-sand area of west of Northeast China. In order to understand physiological response mechanisms of the corn seedlings to wind-sand damage, the changes in MDA content, membrane permeability, protective enzymes activities and osmotic regulation substances at 0 (CK) , 6, 9, 12, 15 and 18 m . s-1 wind speed (wind-sand flow strength: 0, 1.00, 28.30, 63.28, 111.82 and 172.93 g . cm-1 . min-1, respectively) for 10 min duration were studied during the spring, 2013 in the Horqin Sand Land of Inner Mongolia. The results showed that effects of wind-sand flow blowing on the RWC of the corn seedling were lighter in the 6-12 m . s-1 treatments, but the RWC decreased by 19.0% and 18.7% in the 15 m . s-1 and 18 m . s-1 treatments compared to the CK, respectively. The MDA content tended to decline with increasing the wind-sand flow strength, and decreased by 35.0% and 39.0% in the 15 m . s-1 and 18 m . s-1 treatments compared to the CK, respectively. The membrane permeability increased significantly with increasing the wind-sand flow strength, and increased by 191.3% and 187.8% in the 15 m . s-1 and 18 m . s-1 treatments compared to the CK, respectively. With the increase of wind-sand flow strength, SOD activities decreased and changes of CAT activities were not significant, only POD activities increased significantly, which played an important role in the process of scavenging reactive oxygen species and protecting cell membrane against damage. For lighter water stress caused, by wind-sand flow blowing, proline and soluble sugar did not play any role in osmotic adjustment, but the proline content increased by 11.4% and 24.5% in the 15 m . s-1 and 18 m . s-1 treatments compared to the CK, respectively, which played an important role in osmotic adjustment.

  2. Titan's rotation reveals an internal ocean and changing zonal winds

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lorenz, R.D.; Stiles, B.W.; Kirk, R.L.; Allison, M.D.; Del Marmo, P.P.; Iess, L.; Lunine, J.I.; Ostro, S.J.; Hensley, S.

    2008-01-01

    Cassini radar observations of Saturn's moon Titan over several years show that its rotational period is changing and is different from its orbital period. The present-day rotation period difference from synchronous spin leads to a shift of ???0.36?? per year in apparent longitude and is consistent with seasonal exchange of angular momentum between the surface and Titan's dense superrotating atmosphere, but only if Titan's crust is decoupled from the core by an internal water ocean like that on Europa.

  3. Zoom in at African country level: potential climate induced changes in areas of suitability for survival of malaria vectors

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Predicting anopheles vectors’ population densities and boundary shifts is crucial in preparing for malaria risks and unanticipated outbreaks. Although shifts in the distribution and boundaries of the major malaria vectors (Anopheles gambiae s.s. and An. arabiensis) across Africa have been predicted, quantified areas of absolute change in zone of suitability for their survival have not been defined. In this study, we have quantified areas of absolute change conducive for the establishment and survival of these vectors, per African country, under two climate change scenarios and based on our findings, highlight practical measures for effective malaria control in the face of changing climatic patterns. Methods We developed a model using CLIMEX simulation platform to estimate the potential geographical distribution and seasonal abundance of these malaria vectors in relation to climatic factors (temperature, rainfall and relative humidity). The model yielded an eco-climatic index (EI) describing the total favourable geographical locations for the species. The EI values were classified and exported to a GIS package. Using ArcGIS, the EI shape points were clipped to the extent of Africa and then converted to a raster layer using Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) interpolation method. Generated maps were then transformed into polygon-based geo-referenced data set and their areas computed and expressed in square kilometers (km2). Results Five classes of EI were derived indicating the level of survivorship of these malaria vectors. The proportion of areas increasing or decreasing in level of survival of these malaria vectors will be more pronounced in eastern and southern African countries than those in western Africa. Angola, Ethiopia, Kenya, Mozambique, Tanzania, South Africa and Zambia appear most likely to be affected in terms of absolute change of malaria vectors suitability zones under the selected climate change scenarios. Conclusion The potential shifts of

  4. Winds of Change: Charting the Course for IT in the Twenty-First Century

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hawkins, Brian L.

    2007-01-01

    In the spring of 2005, the author, the retiring president of EDUCAUSE, was asked to be the keynote speaker at the EDUCAUSE Western Regional Conference. The conference theme was "Winds of Change: Charting the Course for Technology in Challenging Times." What that brought to his mind was the era of the great sailing ships of the eighteenth and…

  5. Climate change, vector-borne disease and interdisciplinary research: social science perspectives on an environment and health controversy.

    PubMed

    Brisbois, Ben W; Ali, S Harris

    2010-12-01

    Over the last two decades, the science of climate change's theoretical impacts on vector-borne disease has generated controversy related to its methodological validity and relevance to disease control policy. Critical social science analysis, drawing on science and technology studies and the sociology of social movements, demonstrates consistency between this controversy and the theory that climate change is serving as a collective action frame for some health researchers. Within this frame, vector-borne disease data are interpreted as a symptom of climate change, with the need for further interdisiplinary research put forth as the logical and necessary next step. Reaction to this tendency on the part of a handful of vector-borne disease specialists exhibits characteristics of academic boundary work aimed at preserving the integrity of existing disciplinary boundaries. Possible reasons for this conflict include the leadership role for health professionals and disciplines in the envisioned interdiscipline, and disagreements over the appropriate scale of interventions to control vector-borne diseases. Analysis of the competing frames in this controversy also allows identification of excluded voices and themes, such as international political economic explanations for the health problems in question. A logical conclusion of this analysis, therefore, is the need for critical reflection on environment and health research and policy to achieve integration with considerations of global health equity.

  6. Improving the textural characterization of trabecular bone structure to quantify its changes: the locally adapted scaling vector method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raeth, Christoph W.; Mueller, Dirk; Boehm, Holger F.; Rummeny, Ernst J.; Link, Thomas M.; Monetti, Roberto

    2005-04-01

    We extend the recently introduced scaling vector method (SVM) to improve the textural characterization of oriented trabecular bone structures in the context of osteoporosis. Using the concept of scaling vectors one obtains non-linear structural information from data sets, which can account for global anisotropies. In this work we present a method which allows us to determine the local directionalities in images by using scaling vectors. Thus it becomes possible to better account for local anisotropies and to implement this knowledge in the calculation of the scaling properties of the image. By applying this adaptive technique, a refined quantification of the image structure is possible: we test and evaluate our new method using realistic two-dimensional simulations of bone structures, which model the effect of osteoblasts and osteoclasts on the local change of relative bone density. The partial differential equations involved in the model are solved numerically using cellular automata (CA). Different realizations with slightly varying control parameters are considered. Our results show that even small changes in the trabecular structures, which are induced by variation of a control parameters of the system, become discernible by applying the locally adapted scaling vector method. The results are superior to those obtained by isotropic and/or bulk measures. These findings may be especially important for monitoring the treatment of patients, where the early recognition of (drug-induced) changes in the trabecular structure is crucial.

  7. Climate variability and change in the United States: potential impacts on vector- and rodent-borne diseases.

    PubMed

    Gubler, D J; Reiter, P; Ebi, K L; Yap, W; Nasci, R; Patz, J A

    2001-05-01

    Diseases such as plague, typhus, malaria, yellow fever, and dengue fever, transmitted between humans by blood-feeding arthropods, were once common in the United States. Many of these diseases are no longer present, mainly because of changes in land use, agricultural methods, residential patterns, human behavior, and vector control. However, diseases that may be transmitted to humans from wild birds or mammals (zoonoses) continue to circulate in nature in many parts of the country. Most vector-borne diseases exhibit a distinct seasonal pattern, which clearly suggests that they are weather sensitive. Rainfall, temperature, and other weather variables affect in many ways both the vectors and the pathogens they transmit. For example, high temperatures can increase or reduce survival rate, depending on the vector, its behavior, ecology, and many other factors. Thus, the probability of transmission may or may not be increased by higher temperatures. The tremendous growth in international travel increases the risk of importation of vector-borne diseases, some of which can be transmitted locally under suitable circumstances at the right time of the year. But demographic and sociologic factors also play a critical role in determining disease incidence, and it is unlikely that these diseases will cause major epidemics in the United States if the public health infrastructure is maintained and improved.

  8. Climate variability and change in the United States: potential impacts on vector- and rodent-borne diseases.

    PubMed Central

    Gubler, D J; Reiter, P; Ebi, K L; Yap, W; Nasci, R; Patz, J A

    2001-01-01

    Diseases such as plague, typhus, malaria, yellow fever, and dengue fever, transmitted between humans by blood-feeding arthropods, were once common in the United States. Many of these diseases are no longer present, mainly because of changes in land use, agricultural methods, residential patterns, human behavior, and vector control. However, diseases that may be transmitted to humans from wild birds or mammals (zoonoses) continue to circulate in nature in many parts of the country. Most vector-borne diseases exhibit a distinct seasonal pattern, which clearly suggests that they are weather sensitive. Rainfall, temperature, and other weather variables affect in many ways both the vectors and the pathogens they transmit. For example, high temperatures can increase or reduce survival rate, depending on the vector, its behavior, ecology, and many other factors. Thus, the probability of transmission may or may not be increased by higher temperatures. The tremendous growth in international travel increases the risk of importation of vector-borne diseases, some of which can be transmitted locally under suitable circumstances at the right time of the year. But demographic and sociologic factors also play a critical role in determining disease incidence, and it is unlikely that these diseases will cause major epidemics in the United States if the public health infrastructure is maintained and improved. PMID:11359689

  9. Estimated Effects of Projected Climate Change on the Basic Reproductive Number of the Lyme Disease Vector Ixodes scapularis

    PubMed Central

    Radojevic´, Milka; Wu, Xiaotian; Duvvuri, Venkata R.; Leighton, Patrick A.; Wu, Jianhong

    2014-01-01

    Background: The extent to which climate change may affect human health by increasing risk from vector-borne diseases has been under considerable debate. Objectives: We quantified potential effects of future climate change on the basic reproduction number (R0) of the tick vector of Lyme disease, Ixodes scapularis, and explored their importance for Lyme disease risk, and for vector-borne diseases in general. Methods: We applied observed temperature data for North America and projected temperatures using regional climate models to drive an I. scapularis population model to hindcast recent, and project future, effects of climate warming on R0. Modeled R0 increases were compared with R0 ranges for pathogens and parasites associated with variations in key ecological and epidemiological factors (obtained by literature review) to assess their epidemiological importance. Results: R0 for I. scapularis in North America increased during the years 1971–2010 in spatio-temporal patterns consistent with observations. Increased temperatures due to projected climate change increased R0 by factors (2–5 times in Canada and 1.5–2 times in the United States), comparable to observed ranges of R0 for pathogens and parasites due to variations in strains, geographic locations, epidemics, host and vector densities, and control efforts. Conclusions: Climate warming may have co-driven the emergence of Lyme disease in northeastern North America, and in the future may drive substantial disease spread into new geographic regions and increase tick-borne disease risk where climate is currently suitable. Our findings highlight the potential for climate change to have profound effects on vectors and vector-borne diseases, and the need to refocus efforts to understand these effects. Citation: Ogden NH, Radojević M, Wu X, Duvvuri VR, Leighton PA, Wu J. 2014. Estimated effects of projected climate change on the basic reproductive number of the Lyme disease vector Ixodes scapularis. Environ Health

  10. Will people change their vector-control practices in the presence of an imperfect dengue vaccine?

    PubMed

    Boccia, T M Q R; Burattini, M N; Coutinho, F A B; Massad, E

    2014-03-01

    Human behaviours, which are influenced by social, cultural, economic and political factors, can increase or decrease the risk of dengue infection, depending on the relationship with the insect vector. Because no vaccine is currently available, the spread of dengue can only be curtailed by controlling vector populations (Aedes aegypti and others) and by protecting individuals. This study tested the hypothesis that dengue-affected populations are likely to relax their vector-control habits if a potentially protective vaccine becomes available. The hypothesis was tested using two approaches: a mathematical model designed to describe dengue transmission and an empirical field test in which the local population of an endemic area was interviewed about their vector-control habits given the presence of a theoretical vaccine. The model demonstrated that depending on the level of vector-control reduction, there is a threshold in vaccine efficacy below which it is better not to introduce the vaccine. The interview showed that people who were informed that a very effective vaccine is available would reduce their vector-control habits significantly compared to a group that was informed that the vaccine is not very effective.

  11. Modelling the historical changes in physical soil properties caused by wind erosion process

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lackóová, Lenka

    2016-04-01

    Soil physical properties could be significantly affected by land degradation processes. Spatial variation modelling of physical soil properties in time is important in areas where wind erosion occurs regularly. The objectives of this study were to determine the changes of spatial variability of sand, silt and clay % contents in selected area in Slovakia over 45 years using topsoil physical properties at European scale (using LUCAS topsoil) and historical Complex Soil Survey Data. The Complex Soil Survey was made in the period 1960-1970 for the whole of the Slovak Republic, using a unified methodology to build an important soil properties database including physical topsoil properties. Spatial model distribution using regression kriging algorithm created by Soil Science and Conservation Research Institute was used for comparison with LUCAS topsoil particle size distribution datasets and their derived products of clay, sand and silt % content. The results of this study will show the effects of wind erosion in long time scale. Continual total mass removal during wind erosion can produce dramatic changes in the texture of the soil surface. Fine particles are removed, which tend to concentrate sand as erosion continues. Wind erosion physically removes the most fertile portion of the soil which may lead to lower productivity or destroying the characteristics of topsoil beneficial to plant growth. Historical changes of physical soil properties are discussed in this study.

  12. Aedes aegypti (L.) in Latin American and Caribbean region: With growing evidence for vector adaptation to climate change?

    PubMed

    Chadee, Dave D; Martinez, Raymond

    2016-04-01

    Within Latin America and the Caribbean region the impact of climate change has been associated with the effects of rainfall and temperature on seasonal outbreaks of dengue but few studies have been conducted on the impacts of climate on the behaviour and ecology of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes.This study was conducted to examine the adaptive behaviours currently being employed by A. aegypti mosquitoes exposed to the force of climate change in LAC countries. The literature on the association between climate and dengue incidence is small and sometimes speculative. Few laboratory and field studies have identified research gaps. Laboratory and field experiments were designed and conducted to better understand the container preferences, climate-associated-adaptive behaviour, ecology and the effects of different temperatures and light regimens on the life history of A. aegypti mosquitoes. A. aegypti adaptive behaviours and changes in container preferences demonstrate how complex dengue transmission dynamics is, in different ecosystems. The use of underground drains and septic tanks represents a major behaviour change identified and compounds an already difficult task to control A. aegypti populations. A business as usual approach will exacerbate the problem and lead to more frequent outbreaks of dengue and chikungunya in LAC countries unless both area-wide and targeted vector control approaches are adopted. The current evidence and the results from proposed transdisciplinary research on dengue within different ecosystems will help guide the development of new vector control strategies and foster a better understanding of climate change impacts on vector-borne disease transmission.

  13. Aedes aegypti (L.) in Latin American and Caribbean region: With growing evidence for vector adaptation to climate change?

    PubMed

    Chadee, Dave D; Martinez, Raymond

    2016-04-01

    Within Latin America and the Caribbean region the impact of climate change has been associated with the effects of rainfall and temperature on seasonal outbreaks of dengue but few studies have been conducted on the impacts of climate on the behaviour and ecology of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes.This study was conducted to examine the adaptive behaviours currently being employed by A. aegypti mosquitoes exposed to the force of climate change in LAC countries. The literature on the association between climate and dengue incidence is small and sometimes speculative. Few laboratory and field studies have identified research gaps. Laboratory and field experiments were designed and conducted to better understand the container preferences, climate-associated-adaptive behaviour, ecology and the effects of different temperatures and light regimens on the life history of A. aegypti mosquitoes. A. aegypti adaptive behaviours and changes in container preferences demonstrate how complex dengue transmission dynamics is, in different ecosystems. The use of underground drains and septic tanks represents a major behaviour change identified and compounds an already difficult task to control A. aegypti populations. A business as usual approach will exacerbate the problem and lead to more frequent outbreaks of dengue and chikungunya in LAC countries unless both area-wide and targeted vector control approaches are adopted. The current evidence and the results from proposed transdisciplinary research on dengue within different ecosystems will help guide the development of new vector control strategies and foster a better understanding of climate change impacts on vector-borne disease transmission. PMID:26796862

  14. Spatial Orientation and Balance Control Changes Induced by Altered Gravito-Inertial Force Vectors

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kaufman, Galen D.; Wood, Scott J.; Gianna, Claire C.; Black, F. Owen; Paloski, William H.; Dawson, David L. (Technical Monitor)

    1999-01-01

    Seventeen healthy and eight vestibular deficient subjects were exposed to an interaural centripetal acceleration of 1 G (resultant 45 deg roll tilt of 1.4 G) on a 0.8 meter radius centrifuge for a period of 90 minutes in the dark. The subjects sat with head fixed upright, except every 4 of 10 minutes when instructed to rotate their head so that their nose and eyes pointed towards a visual point switched on every 3 to 5 seconds at random places (within +/- 30 deg) in the Earth horizontal plane. Motion sickness caused some subjects to limit their head movements during significant portions of the 90 minute period, and led three normal subjects to stop the test earlier. Eye movements, including directed saccades for subjective Earth- and head-referenced planes, were recorded before, during, and immediately after centrifugation using electro-oculography. Postural stability measurements were made before and within ten minutes after centrifugation. In normal subjects, postural sway and multisegment body kinematics were gathered during an eyes-closed head movement cadence (sway-referenced support platform), and in response to translational/rotational platform perturbations. A significant increase in postural sway, segmental motion amplitude and hip frequency was observed after centrifugation. This effect was short-lived, with a recovery time of several postural test trials. There were also asymmetries in the direction of post-centrifugation center of sway and head tilt which depended on the subject's orientation during the centrifugation adaptation period (left ear or right ear out). To delineate the effect of the magnitude of the gravito-inertial vector versus its direction during the adaptive centrifugation period, we tilted eight normal subjects in the roll axis at a 45 deg angle in the dark for 90 minutes without rotational motion. Their postural responses did not change following the period of tilt. Based on verbal reports, normal subjects overestimated roll

  15. Climate change projected fire weather sensitivity: California Santa Ana wind occurrence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miller, Norman L.; Schlegel, Nicole J.

    2006-08-01

    A new method based on global climate model pressure gradients was developed for identifying coastal high-wind fire weather conditions, such as the Santa Ana Occurrence (SAO). Application of this method for determining southern California Santa Ana wind occurrence resulted in a good correlation between derived large-scale SAOs and observed offshore winds during periods of low humidity. The projected change in the number of SAOs was analyzed using two global climate models, one a low temperature sensitivity and the other a middle-temperature sensitivity, both forced with low and high emission scenarios, for three future time periods. This initial analysis shows consistent shifts in SAO events from earlier (September-October) to later (November-December) in the season, suggesting that SAOs may significantly increase the extent of California coastal areas burned by wildfires, loss of life, and property.

  16. An improved theory for determining changes in satellite orbits caused by meridional winds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    King-Hele, D. G.; Walker, Doreen M. C.

    1987-05-01

    Meridional (south-to-north) winds in the upper atmosphere may be specified by the equivalent angular rotation rate, Phi, and previous theories for the effect of meridional winds on satellite orbits have used Phi as the controlling parameter. In this report the theory is developed anew in terms of the parameter M = Phi sec phi, where phi is the latitude. It is shown that in practice M is just as useful as Phi; and M has the advantage of leading to a much simpler and more accurate theory for expressing the changes in orbital inclination and right ascension of an orbit of any eccentricity (e greater than 0 and less than 1) produced by meridional winds in an oblate atmosphere. The theory is developed in two parts: for high eccentricity (e greater than 0.05) and for low eccentricity (e less than 0.05).

  17. Changing patterns of West Nile virus transmission: altered vector competence and host susceptibility.

    PubMed

    Brault, Aaron C

    2009-01-01

    West Nile virus (WNV) is a flavivirus (Flaviviridae) transmitted between Culex spp. mosquitoes and avian hosts. The virus has dramatically expanded its geographic range in the past ten years. Increases in global commerce, climate change, ecological factors and the emergence of novel viral genotypes likely play significant roles in the emergence of this virus; however, the exact mechanism and relative importance of each is uncertain. Previously WNV was primarily associated with febrile illness of children in endemic areas, but it was identified as a cause of neurological disease in humans in 1994. This modulation in disease presentation could be the result of the emergence of a more virulent genotype as well as the progression of the virus into areas in which the age structure of immunologically naïve individuals makes them more susceptible to severe neurological disease. Since its introduction to North America in 1999, a novel WNV genotype has been identified that has been demonstrated to disseminate more rapidly and with greater efficiency at elevated temperatures than the originally introduced strain, indicating the potential importance of temperature as a selective criteria for the emergence of WNV genotypes with increased vectorial capacity. Even prior to the North American introduction, a mutation associated with increased replication in avian hosts, identified to be under adaptive evolutionary pressure, has been identified, indicating that adaptation for increased replication within vertebrate hosts could play a role in increased transmission efficiency. Although stable in its evolutionary structure, WNV has demonstrated the capacity for rapidly adapting to both vertebrate hosts and invertebrate vectors and will likely continue to exploit novel ecological niches as it adapts to novel transmission foci.

  18. Changing patterns of West Nile virus transmission: altered vector competence and host susceptibility

    PubMed Central

    Brault, Aaron C.

    2009-01-01

    West Nile virus (WNV) is a flavivirus (Flaviviridae) transmitted between Culex spp. mosquitoes and avian hosts. The virus has dramatically expanded its geographic range in the past ten years. Increases in global commerce, climate change, ecological factors and the emergence of novel viral genotypes likely play significant roles in the emergence of this virus; however, the exact mechanism and relative importance of each is uncertain. Previously WNV was primarily associated with febrile illness of children in endemic areas, but it was identified as a cause of neurological disease in humans in 1994. This modulation in disease presentation could be the result of the emergence of a more virulent genotype as well as the progression of the virus into areas in which the age structure of immunologically naïve individuals makes them more susceptible to severe neurological disease. Since its introduction to North America in 1999, a novel WNV genotype has been identified that has been demonstrated to disseminate more rapidly and with greater efficiency at elevated temperatures than the originally introduced strain, indicating the potential importance of temperature as a selective criteria for the emergence of WNV genotypes with increased vectorial capacity. Even prior to the North American introduction, a mutation associated with increased replication in avian hosts, identified to be under adaptive evolutionary pressure, has been identified, indicating that adaptation for increased replication within vertebrate hosts could play a role in increased transmission efficiency. Although stable in its evolutionary structure, WNV has demonstrated the capacity for rapidly adapting to both vertebrate hosts and invertebrate vectors and will likely continue to exploit novel ecological niches as it adapts to novel transmission foci. PMID:19406093

  19. Catastrophic wind damage to North American forests and the potential impact of climate change.

    PubMed

    Peterson, C J

    2000-11-15

    Catastrophic winds from tornadoes and downbursts are a major cause of natural disturbance in forests of eastern North America, accounting for thousands of hectares of disturbed area annually. Wind disturbance shows substantial regional variation, decreasing from the mid-west to the east and from the south-east to New England. In terms of the relative importance among these types of storms, more forest damage results from tornadoes in the south-east and mid-west, while downbursts are the most important type of wind disturbance in the Great Lakes area. Downbursts vary widely in size, but large ones can damage thousands of hectares, while tornadoes are much smaller, seldom affecting more than several hundred hectares. Tornadoes cause the most severe wind disturbances. Site characteristics such as physiography, soil moisture, and soil depth; stand characteristics like density and canopy roughness; and tree characteristics such as size, species, rooting depth, and wood strength, are the factors most recognized as influencing damage patterns. The consequences of wind damage to forests, such as change in environmental conditions, density, size structure, species composition, and successional status, occur on both immediate (hours-to-days) and long-term (months-to-decades) time scales. Most wind disturbances result in the post-disturbance vegetation being comprised of surviving canopy trees, and varying amounts of sprouts, released understory stems, and new seedlings. Stand size structure is usually reduced, and successional status of a forest is often advanced. Diversity can be either increased or decreased, depending on the measure of abundance used to calculate diversity. Because tornadoes and downbursts are in part products of thermodynamic climatic circumstances, they may be affected by anticipated changes in climatic conditions as the 21st century progresses. However, the current understanding of tornado and downburst formation from supercell storms is very

  20. Catastrophic wind damage to North American forests and the potential impact of climate change.

    PubMed

    Peterson, C J

    2000-11-15

    Catastrophic winds from tornadoes and downbursts are a major cause of natural disturbance in forests of eastern North America, accounting for thousands of hectares of disturbed area annually. Wind disturbance shows substantial regional variation, decreasing from the mid-west to the east and from the south-east to New England. In terms of the relative importance among these types of storms, more forest damage results from tornadoes in the south-east and mid-west, while downbursts are the most important type of wind disturbance in the Great Lakes area. Downbursts vary widely in size, but large ones can damage thousands of hectares, while tornadoes are much smaller, seldom affecting more than several hundred hectares. Tornadoes cause the most severe wind disturbances. Site characteristics such as physiography, soil moisture, and soil depth; stand characteristics like density and canopy roughness; and tree characteristics such as size, species, rooting depth, and wood strength, are the factors most recognized as influencing damage patterns. The consequences of wind damage to forests, such as change in environmental conditions, density, size structure, species composition, and successional status, occur on both immediate (hours-to-days) and long-term (months-to-decades) time scales. Most wind disturbances result in the post-disturbance vegetation being comprised of surviving canopy trees, and varying amounts of sprouts, released understory stems, and new seedlings. Stand size structure is usually reduced, and successional status of a forest is often advanced. Diversity can be either increased or decreased, depending on the measure of abundance used to calculate diversity. Because tornadoes and downbursts are in part products of thermodynamic climatic circumstances, they may be affected by anticipated changes in climatic conditions as the 21st century progresses. However, the current understanding of tornado and downburst formation from supercell storms is very

  1. Predicted altitudinal shifts and reduced spatial distribution of Leishmania infantum vector species under climate change scenarios in Colombia.

    PubMed

    González, Camila; Paz, Andrea; Ferro, Cristina

    2014-01-01

    Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is caused by the trypanosomatid parasite Leishmania infantum (=Leishmania chagasi), and is epidemiologically relevant due to its wide geographic distribution, the number of annual cases reported and the increase in its co-infection with HIV. Two vector species have been incriminated in the Americas: Lutzomyia longipalpis and Lutzomyia evansi. In Colombia, L. longipalpis is distributed along the Magdalena River Valley while L. evansi is only found in the northern part of the Country. Regarding the epidemiology of the disease, in Colombia the incidence of VL has decreased over the last few years without any intervention being implemented. Additionally, changes in transmission cycles have been reported with urban transmission occurring in the Caribbean Coast. In Europe and North America climate change seems to be driving a latitudinal shift of leishmaniasis transmission. Here, we explored the spatial distribution of the two known vector species of L. infantum in Colombia and projected its future distribution into climate change scenarios to establish the expansion potential of the disease. An updated database including L. longipalpis and L. evansi collection records from Colombia was compiled. Ecological niche models were performed for each species using the Maxent software and 13 Worldclim bioclimatic coverages. Projections were made for the pessimistic CSIRO A2 scenario, which predicts the higher increase in temperature due to non-emission reduction, and the optimistic Hadley B2 Scenario predicting the minimum increase in temperature. The database contained 23 records for L. evansi and 39 records for L. longipalpis, distributed along the Magdalena River Valley and the Caribbean Coast, where the potential distribution areas of both species were also predicted by Maxent. Climate change projections showed a general overall reduction in the spatial distribution of the two vector species, promoting a shift in altitudinal distribution for L

  2. Predicted altitudinal shifts and reduced spatial distribution of Leishmania infantum vector species under climate change scenarios in Colombia.

    PubMed

    González, Camila; Paz, Andrea; Ferro, Cristina

    2014-01-01

    Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is caused by the trypanosomatid parasite Leishmania infantum (=Leishmania chagasi), and is epidemiologically relevant due to its wide geographic distribution, the number of annual cases reported and the increase in its co-infection with HIV. Two vector species have been incriminated in the Americas: Lutzomyia longipalpis and Lutzomyia evansi. In Colombia, L. longipalpis is distributed along the Magdalena River Valley while L. evansi is only found in the northern part of the Country. Regarding the epidemiology of the disease, in Colombia the incidence of VL has decreased over the last few years without any intervention being implemented. Additionally, changes in transmission cycles have been reported with urban transmission occurring in the Caribbean Coast. In Europe and North America climate change seems to be driving a latitudinal shift of leishmaniasis transmission. Here, we explored the spatial distribution of the two known vector species of L. infantum in Colombia and projected its future distribution into climate change scenarios to establish the expansion potential of the disease. An updated database including L. longipalpis and L. evansi collection records from Colombia was compiled. Ecological niche models were performed for each species using the Maxent software and 13 Worldclim bioclimatic coverages. Projections were made for the pessimistic CSIRO A2 scenario, which predicts the higher increase in temperature due to non-emission reduction, and the optimistic Hadley B2 Scenario predicting the minimum increase in temperature. The database contained 23 records for L. evansi and 39 records for L. longipalpis, distributed along the Magdalena River Valley and the Caribbean Coast, where the potential distribution areas of both species were also predicted by Maxent. Climate change projections showed a general overall reduction in the spatial distribution of the two vector species, promoting a shift in altitudinal distribution for L

  3. Wind of change: new insights on the ecology and evolution of pollination and mating in wind-pollinated plants

    PubMed Central

    Friedman, Jannice; Barrett, Spencer C. H.

    2009-01-01

    Background The rich literature that characterizes the field of pollination biology has focused largely on animal-pollinated plants. At least 10 % of angiosperms are wind pollinated, and this mode of pollination has evolved on multiple occasions among unrelated lineages, and hence this discrepancy in research interest is surprising. Here, the evolution and functional ecology of pollination and mating in wind-pollinated plants are discussed, a theoretical framework for modelling the selection of wind pollination is outlined, and pollen capture and the occurrence of pollen limitation in diverse wind-pollinated herbs are investigated experimentally. Scope and Conclusions Wind pollination may commonly evolve to provide reproductive assurance when pollinators are scarce. Evidence is presented that pollen limitation in wind-pollinated plants may not be as common as it is in animal-pollinated species. The studies of pollen capture in wind-pollinated herbs demonstrate that pollen transfer efficiency is not substantially lower than in animal-pollinated plants as is often assumed. These findings challenge the explanation that the evolution of few ovules in wind-pollinated flowers is associated with low pollen loads. Floral and inflorescence architecture is crucial to pollination and mating because of the aerodynamics of wind pollination. Evidence is provided for the importance of plant height, floral position, and stamen and stigma characteristics in promoting effective pollen dispersal and capture. Finally, it is proposed that geitonogamous selfing may alleviate pollen limitation in many wind-pollinated plants with unisexual flowers. PMID:19218583

  4. Range expansion of the Bluetongue vector, Culicoides imicola, in continental France likely due to rare wind-transport events.

    PubMed

    Jacquet, Stéphanie; Huber, Karine; Pagès, Nonito; Talavera, Sandra; Burgin, Laura E; Carpenter, Simon; Sanders, Christopher; Dicko, Ahmadou H; Djerbal, Mouloud; Goffredo, Maria; Lhor, Youssef; Lucientes, Javier; Miranda-Chueca, Miguel A; Pereira Da Fonseca, Isabel; Ramilo, David W; Setier-Rio, Marie-Laure; Bouyer, Jérémy; Chevillon, Christine; Balenghien, Thomas; Guis, Hélène; Garros, Claire

    2016-01-01

    The role of the northward expansion of Culicoides imicola Kieffer in recent and unprecedented outbreaks of Culicoides-borne arboviruses in southern Europe has been a significant point of contention. We combined entomological surveys, movement simulations of air-borne particles, and population genetics to reconstruct the chain of events that led to a newly colonized French area nestled at the northern foot of the Pyrenees. Simulating the movement of air-borne particles evidenced frequent wind-transport events allowing, within at most 36 hours, the immigration of midges from north-eastern Spain and Balearic Islands, and, as rare events, their immigration from Corsica. Completing the puzzle, population genetic analyses discriminated Corsica as the origin of the new population and identified two successive colonization events within west-Mediterranean basin. Our findings are of considerable importance when trying to understand the invasion of new territories by expanding species. PMID:27263862

  5. Range expansion of the Bluetongue vector, Culicoides imicola, in continental France likely due to rare wind-transport events

    PubMed Central

    Jacquet, Stéphanie; Huber, Karine; Pagès, Nonito; Talavera, Sandra; Burgin, Laura E.; Carpenter, Simon; Sanders, Christopher; Dicko, Ahmadou H.; Djerbal, Mouloud; Goffredo, Maria; Lhor, Youssef; Lucientes, Javier; Miranda-Chueca, Miguel A.; Pereira Da Fonseca, Isabel; Ramilo, David W.; Setier-Rio, Marie-Laure; Bouyer, Jérémy; Chevillon, Christine; Balenghien, Thomas; Guis, Hélène; Garros, Claire

    2016-01-01

    The role of the northward expansion of Culicoides imicola Kieffer in recent and unprecedented outbreaks of Culicoides-borne arboviruses in southern Europe has been a significant point of contention. We combined entomological surveys, movement simulations of air-borne particles, and population genetics to reconstruct the chain of events that led to a newly colonized French area nestled at the northern foot of the Pyrenees. Simulating the movement of air-borne particles evidenced frequent wind-transport events allowing, within at most 36 hours, the immigration of midges from north-eastern Spain and Balearic Islands, and, as rare events, their immigration from Corsica. Completing the puzzle, population genetic analyses discriminated Corsica as the origin of the new population and identified two successive colonization events within west-Mediterranean basin. Our findings are of considerable importance when trying to understand the invasion of new territories by expanding species. PMID:27263862

  6. Climate, environmental and socio-economic change: weighing up the balance in vector-borne disease transmission.

    PubMed

    Parham, Paul E; Waldock, Joanna; Christophides, George K; Hemming, Deborah; Agusto, Folashade; Evans, Katherine J; Fefferman, Nina; Gaff, Holly; Gumel, Abba; LaDeau, Shannon; Lenhart, Suzanne; Mickens, Ronald E; Naumova, Elena N; Ostfeld, Richard S; Ready, Paul D; Thomas, Matthew B; Velasco-Hernandez, Jorge; Michael, Edwin

    2015-04-01

    Arguably one of the most important effects of climate change is the potential impact on human health. While this is likely to take many forms, the implications for future transmission of vector-borne diseases (VBDs), given their ongoing contribution to global disease burden, are both extremely important and highly uncertain. In part, this is owing not only to data limitations and methodological challenges when integrating climate-driven VBD models and climate change projections, but also, perhaps most crucially, to the multitude of epidemiological, ecological and socio-economic factors that drive VBD transmission, and this complexity has generated considerable debate over the past 10-15 years. In this review, we seek to elucidate current knowledge around this topic, identify key themes and uncertainties, evaluate ongoing challenges and open research questions and, crucially, offer some solutions for the field. Although many of these challenges are ubiquitous across multiple VBDs, more specific issues also arise in different vector-pathogen systems.

  7. Climate change and the spread of vector-borne diseases: using approximate Bayesian computation to compare invasion scenarios for the bluetongue virus vector Culicoides imicola in Italy.

    PubMed

    Mardulyn, Patrick; Goffredo, Maria; Conte, Annamaria; Hendrickx, Guy; Meiswinkel, Rudolf; Balenghien, Thomas; Sghaier, Soufien; Lohr, Youssef; Gilbert, Marius

    2013-05-01

    Bluetongue (BT) is a commonly cited example of a disease with a distribution believed to have recently expanded in response to global warming. The BT virus is transmitted to ruminants by biting midges of the genus Culicoides, and it has been hypothesized that the emergence of BT in Mediterranean Europe during the last two decades is a consequence of the recent colonization of the region by Culicoides imicola and linked to climate change. To better understand the mechanism responsible for the northward spread of BT, we tested the hypothesis of a recent colonization of Italy by C. imicola, by obtaining samples from more than 60 localities across Italy, Corsica, Southern France, and Northern Africa (the hypothesized source point for the recent invasion of C. imicola), and by genotyping them with 10 newly identified microsatellite loci. The patterns of genetic variation within and among the sampled populations were characterized and used in a rigorous approximate Bayesian computation framework to compare three competing historical hypotheses related to the arrival and establishment of C. imicola in Italy. The hypothesis of an ancient presence of the insect vector was strongly favoured by this analysis, with an associated P ≥ 99%, suggesting that causes other than the northward range expansion of C. imicola may have supported the emergence of BT in southern Europe. Overall, this study illustrates the potential of molecular genetic markers for exploring the assumed link between climate change and the spread of diseases.

  8. Assessing the impact of climate change on vector-borne viruses in the EU through the elicitation of expert opinion.

    PubMed

    Gale, P; Brouwer, A; Ramnial, V; Kelly, L; Kosmider, R; Fooks, A R; Snary, E L

    2010-02-01

    Expert opinion was elicited to undertake a qualitative risk assessment to estimate the current and future risks to the European Union (EU) from five vector-borne viruses listed by the World Organization for Animal Health. It was predicted that climate change will increase the risk of incursions of African horse sickness virus (AHSV), Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV) and Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) into the EU from other parts of the world, with African swine fever virus (ASFV) and West Nile virus (WNV) being less affected. Currently the predicted risks of incursion were lowest for RVFV and highest for ASFV. Risks of incursion were considered for six routes of entry (namely vectors, livestock, meat products, wildlife, pets and people). Climate change was predicted to increase the risk of incursion from entry of vectors for all five viruses to some degree, the strongest effects being predicted for AHSV, CCHFV and WNV. This work will facilitate identification of appropriate risk management options in relation to adaptations to climate change.

  9. Detection and Monitoring of Spatio-temporal Change in the Distribution of Mosquito Vector Populations

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Mosquitoes transmit blood-borne disease agents that cause morbidity and mortality in human and animal populations. Preemption of epidemics/epizootics of mosquito-borne disease is predicated on the timely and effective application of vector control. Such timing is decided on the basis of adult mosq...

  10. Effects of Southern Hemisphere Wind Changes on the Meridional Overturning Circulation in Ocean Models.

    PubMed

    Gent, Peter R

    2016-01-01

    Observations show that the Southern Hemisphere zonal wind stress maximum has increased significantly over the past 30 years. Eddy-resolving ocean models show that the resulting increase in the Southern Ocean mean flow meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is partially compensated by an increase in the eddy MOC. This effect can be reproduced in the non-eddy-resolving ocean component of a climate model, providing the eddy parameterization coefficient is variable and not a constant. If the coefficient is a constant, then the Southern Ocean mean MOC change is balanced by an unrealistically large change in the Atlantic Ocean MOC. Southern Ocean eddy compensation means that Southern Hemisphere winds cannot be the dominant mechanism driving midlatitude North Atlantic MOC variability.

  11. The role of heating, winds, and topography on sea level changes in the North Atlantic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Jinting; Kelly, Kathryn A.; Thompson, LuAnne

    2016-05-01

    Seasonal and interannual-to-decadal variations of large-scale altimetric sea surface height (SSH) owing to surface heating and wind forcing in the presence of topography are investigated using simplified models. The dominant forcing mechanisms are time scale dependent. On the seasonal time scale, locally forced thermosteric height explains most of the SSH variance north of 18°N. First-mode linear long baroclinic Rossby waves forced by changes in the winds and eastern boundary conditions explain most of the variance between 10°N and 15°N and are also important east of Greenland. On interannual-to-decadal time scales, local thermosteric height remains important at several locations in the middle and high latitudes. A topographic Sverdrup response explains interannual-to-decadal SSH between 53°N and 63°N east of Greenland. Farther south, the linear Rossby wave model explains SSH variations on interannual-to-decadal time scales between 30°N and 50°N from mid-basin to the eastern boundary. Propagation of the eastern boundary condition into the interior dominates the interannual-to-decadal SSH signals south of 30°N. The effect from NAO-related heat flux on SSH is small, but forcing the topographic Sverdrup models with NAO-regressed winds gives slightly better agreement with the observed SSH in the subpolar gyre on interannual-to-decadal time scales than using the full winds.

  12. Spatial orientation and balance control changes induced by altered gravitoinertial force vectors.

    PubMed

    Kaufman, G D; Wood, S J; Gianna, C C; Black, F O; Paloski, W H

    2001-04-01

    were short-lived, however, with a recovery time of several postural test trials (minutes). There were also asymmetries in the direction of postcentrifugation COP and head tilt which depended on the subject's orientation during the centrifugation adaptation period (left ear or right ear out). The amount of total head movements during centrifugation correlated poorly or inversely with postcentrifugation postural stability, and the most unstable subject made no head movements. There was no decrease in postural stability after static tilt, although these subjects also reported a perceived tilt briefly after return to upright, and they also had COP asymmetries. Abnormal subjects underestimated roll-tilt during centrifugation, and their directed saccades revealed permanent spatial distortions. Bilateral abnormal subjects started out with poor postural control, but showed no postural decrements after centrifugation, while unilateral abnormal subjects had varying degrees of postural decrement, both in their everyday function and as a result of experiencing the centrifugation. In addition, three unilateral, abnormal subjects, who rode twice in opposite orientations, revealed a consistent orthogonal pattern of COP offsets after centrifugation. These results suggest that both orientation and magnitude of the gravitoinertial vector are used by the central nervous system for calibration of multiple orientation systems. A change in the background gravitoinertial force (otolith input) can rapidly initiate postural and perceptual adaptation in several sensorimotor systems, independent of a structured visual surround. PMID:11355385

  13. Spatial orientation and balance control changes induced by altered gravitoinertial force vectors

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kaufman, G. D.; Wood, S. J.; Gianna, C. C.; Black, F. O.; Paloski, W. H.

    2001-01-01

    were short-lived, however, with a recovery time of several postural test trials (minutes). There were also asymmetries in the direction of postcentrifugation COP and head tilt which depended on the subject's orientation during the centrifugation adaptation period (left ear or right ear out). The amount of total head movements during centrifugation correlated poorly or inversely with postcentrifugation postural stability, and the most unstable subject made no head movements. There was no decrease in postural stability after static tilt, although these subjects also reported a perceived tilt briefly after return to upright, and they also had COP asymmetries. Abnormal subjects underestimated roll-tilt during centrifugation, and their directed saccades revealed permanent spatial distortions. Bilateral abnormal subjects started out with poor postural control, but showed no postural decrements after centrifugation, while unilateral abnormal subjects had varying degrees of postural decrement, both in their everyday function and as a result of experiencing the centrifugation. In addition, three unilateral, abnormal subjects, who rode twice in opposite orientations, revealed a consistent orthogonal pattern of COP offsets after centrifugation. These results suggest that both orientation and magnitude of the gravitoinertial vector are used by the central nervous system for calibration of multiple orientation systems. A change in the background gravitoinertial force (otolith input) can rapidly initiate postural and perceptual adaptation in several sensorimotor systems, independent of a structured visual surround.

  14. Cardiac vectors in the healthy human fetus: developmental changes assessed by magnetocardiography and realistic approximations of the volume conductor

    PubMed Central

    Tao, R; Popescu, EA; Drake, WB; Popescu, M

    2014-01-01

    This study sought to characterize the developmental changes of three measures used to describe the morphology of the fetal cardiac vector: QRS peak-amplitude, QRS duration and QRS time-amplitude integral. To achieve this objective, we rely on a recently developed methodology for fetal cardiac vector estimation, using multichannel fetal magnetocardiographic (fMCG) recordings and realistic approximations of the volume conductors obtained from free-hand ultrasound imaging. Fetal magnetocardiographic recordings and 3D ultrasound images were obtained from 23 healthy, uncomplicated pregnancies for a total of 77 recordings performed at gestational ages between 22 weeks and 37 weeks. We report the developmental changes of the cardiac vector parameters with respect to gestational age and estimated fetal weight, as well as their dependence on the estimated ventricular mass derived from cardiac dimensions measured with M-mode ultrasound. The normative values can be used along with the cardiac time intervals reported by previous fMCG studies to assist future clinical studies investigating conditions that affect fetal cardiac function. PMID:23604003

  15. Climate Change and Risk of Leishmaniasis in North America: Predictions from Ecological Niche Models of Vector and Reservoir Species

    PubMed Central

    González, Camila; Wang, Ophelia; Strutz, Stavana E.; González-Salazar, Constantino; Sánchez-Cordero, Víctor; Sarkar, Sahotra

    2010-01-01

    Background Climate change is increasingly being implicated in species' range shifts throughout the world, including those of important vector and reservoir species for infectious diseases. In North America (México, United States, and Canada), leishmaniasis is a vector-borne disease that is autochthonous in México and Texas and has begun to expand its range northward. Further expansion to the north may be facilitated by climate change as more habitat becomes suitable for vector and reservoir species for leishmaniasis. Methods and Findings The analysis began with the construction of ecological niche models using a maximum entropy algorithm for the distribution of two sand fly vector species (Lutzomyia anthophora and L. diabolica), three confirmed rodent reservoir species (Neotoma albigula, N. floridana, and N. micropus), and one potential rodent reservoir species (N. mexicana) for leishmaniasis in northern México and the United States. As input, these models used species' occurrence records with topographic and climatic parameters as explanatory variables. Models were tested for their ability to predict correctly both a specified fraction of occurrence points set aside for this purpose and occurrence points from an independently derived data set. These models were refined to obtain predicted species' geographical distributions under increasingly strict assumptions about the ability of a species to disperse to suitable habitat and to persist in it, as modulated by its ecological suitability. Models successful at predictions were fitted to the extreme A2 and relatively conservative B2 projected climate scenarios for 2020, 2050, and 2080 using publicly available interpolated climate data from the Third Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report. Further analyses included estimation of the projected human population that could potentially be exposed to leishmaniasis in 2020, 2050, and 2080 under the A2 and B2 scenarios. All confirmed vector and

  16. Dynamical response of the magnetotail to changes of the solar wind direction: an MHD modeling perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sergeev, V. A.; Tsyganenko, N. A.; Angelopoulos, V.

    2008-08-01

    We performed global MHD simulations to investigate the magnetotail response to the solar wind directional changes (Vz-variations). These changes, although small, cause significant variations of the neutral sheet shape and location even in the near and middle tail regions. They display a complicated temporal response, in which ~60 to 80% of the final shift of the neutral sheet in Z direction occurs within first 10 15 min (less for faster solar wind), whereas a much longer time (exceeding half hour) is required to reach a new equilibrium. The asymptotic equilibrium shape of the simulated neutral sheet is consistent with predictions of Tsyganenko-Fairfield (2004) empirical model. To visualize a physical origin of the north-south tail motion we compared the values of the total pressure in the northern and southern tail lobes and found a considerable difference (10 15% for only 6° change of the solar wind direction used in the simulation). That difference builds up during the passage of the solar wind directional discontinuity and is responsible for the vertical shift of the neutral sheet, although some pressure difference remains in the near tail even near the new equilibrium. Surprisingly, at a given tailward distance, the response was found to be first initiated in the tail center (the "leader effect"), rather than near the flanks, which can be explained by the wave propagation in the tail, and which may have interesting implications for the substorm triggering studies. The present results have serious implications for the data-based modeling, as they place constraints on the accuracy of tail magnetic configurations to be derived for specific events using data of multi-spacecraft missions, e.g. such as THEMIS.

  17. Mapping the interacting winds of Eta Carinae: Changes Across the Apastron

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gull, Theodore R.; Madura, T.; Corcoran, M. F.; Hamaguchi, K.; Teodoro, M.

    2014-01-01

    Since the May 2009 servicing mission to repair the Hubble Space Telescope, we have systematically mapped the central 1-2" region of Eta Carinae with the 0.1"-wide, long slit of the Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph. Six mappings of selected forbidden emission lines began in the late recovery after the 2009.1 periastron event and now extend to phase 0.85 of Eta Carina's 5.54 year period. In addition to the recovery of the high state as depicted by [Fe III] (IP=16.6 eV) strictures and the stabilization of [Fe II] (IP=7.8 eV) features, we see components of at least three wind-blown shells that expand outward at 400 to 500 km/s. Virtually all forbidden emission originates from primary wind structures. The [Fe II] shells, moving at 470 km/s, are primary wind (420 km/s) structures slightly accelerated by the fast secondary wind (Teodoro et al, 2013 ApJ 773, L16T). The [Fe III] arcs, directly photo-ionized by the secondary star, also shift outward with time. Structures in both emissions shift in a general clockwork direction consistent with the derived orbital motion by Gull et al (2009 MNRAS 396, 1308) and revised by Madura et al (2012 MNRAS 420, 2064). With the continued development of the 3D hydrodynamic models we are able to compare the changing structures and determine limits to changes in the mass loss rate over this period of time. Additional mappings, to be obtained by seven additional HST visits, are scheduled at selected orbital phases to follow major changes in ionization structue due to the drop of high ionization to low ionization across the 2014.5 periastron passage. This work is funded by NASA grants to support HST research.

  18. Impacts of Climate Change on Vector Borne Diseases in the Mediterranean Basin - Implications for Preparedness and Adaptation Policy.

    PubMed

    Negev, Maya; Paz, Shlomit; Clermont, Alexandra; Pri-Or, Noemie Groag; Shalom, Uri; Yeger, Tamar; Green, Manfred S

    2015-06-15

    The Mediterranean region is vulnerable to climatic changes. A warming trend exists in the basin with changes in rainfall patterns. It is expected that vector-borne diseases (VBD) in the region will be influenced by climate change since weather conditions influence their emergence. For some diseases (i.e., West Nile virus) the linkage between emergence andclimate change was recently proved; for others (such as dengue) the risk for local transmission is real. Consequently, adaptation and preparation for changing patterns of VBD distribution is crucial in the Mediterranean basin. We analyzed six representative Mediterranean countries and found that they have started to prepare for this threat, but the preparation levels among them differ, and policy mechanisms are limited and basic. Furthermore, cross-border cooperation is not stable and depends on international frameworks. The Mediterranean countries should improve their adaptation plans, and develop more cross-sectoral, multidisciplinary and participatory approaches. In addition, based on experience from existing local networks in advancing national legislation and trans-border cooperation, we outline recommendations for a regional cooperation framework. We suggest that a stable and neutral framework is required, and that it should address the characteristics and needs of African, Asian and European countries around the Mediterranean in order to ensure participation. Such a regional framework is essential to reduce the risk of VBD transmission, since the vectors of infectious diseases know no political borders.

  19. Impacts of Climate Change on Vector Borne Diseases in the Mediterranean Basin — Implications for Preparedness and Adaptation Policy

    PubMed Central

    Negev, Maya; Paz, Shlomit; Clermont, Alexandra; Pri-Or, Noemie Groag; Shalom, Uri; Yeger, Tamar; Green, Manfred S.

    2015-01-01

    The Mediterranean region is vulnerable to climatic changes. A warming trend exists in the basin with changes in rainfall patterns. It is expected that vector-borne diseases (VBD) in the region will be influenced by climate change since weather conditions influence their emergence. For some diseases (i.e., West Nile virus) the linkage between emergence andclimate change was recently proved; for others (such as dengue) the risk for local transmission is real. Consequently, adaptation and preparation for changing patterns of VBD distribution is crucial in the Mediterranean basin. We analyzed six representative Mediterranean countries and found that they have started to prepare for this threat, but the preparation levels among them differ, and policy mechanisms are limited and basic. Furthermore, cross-border cooperation is not stable and depends on international frameworks. The Mediterranean countries should improve their adaptation plans, and develop more cross-sectoral, multidisciplinary and participatory approaches. In addition, based on experience from existing local networks in advancing national legislation and trans-border cooperation, we outline recommendations for a regional cooperation framework. We suggest that a stable and neutral framework is required, and that it should address the characteristics and needs of African, Asian and European countries around the Mediterranean in order to ensure participation. Such a regional framework is essential to reduce the risk of VBD transmission, since the vectors of infectious diseases know no political borders. PMID:26084000

  20. Impacts of Climate Change on Vector Borne Diseases in the Mediterranean Basin - Implications for Preparedness and Adaptation Policy.

    PubMed

    Negev, Maya; Paz, Shlomit; Clermont, Alexandra; Pri-Or, Noemie Groag; Shalom, Uri; Yeger, Tamar; Green, Manfred S

    2015-06-01

    The Mediterranean region is vulnerable to climatic changes. A warming trend exists in the basin with changes in rainfall patterns. It is expected that vector-borne diseases (VBD) in the region will be influenced by climate change since weather conditions influence their emergence. For some diseases (i.e., West Nile virus) the linkage between emergence andclimate change was recently proved; for others (such as dengue) the risk for local transmission is real. Consequently, adaptation and preparation for changing patterns of VBD distribution is crucial in the Mediterranean basin. We analyzed six representative Mediterranean countries and found that they have started to prepare for this threat, but the preparation levels among them differ, and policy mechanisms are limited and basic. Furthermore, cross-border cooperation is not stable and depends on international frameworks. The Mediterranean countries should improve their adaptation plans, and develop more cross-sectoral, multidisciplinary and participatory approaches. In addition, based on experience from existing local networks in advancing national legislation and trans-border cooperation, we outline recommendations for a regional cooperation framework. We suggest that a stable and neutral framework is required, and that it should address the characteristics and needs of African, Asian and European countries around the Mediterranean in order to ensure participation. Such a regional framework is essential to reduce the risk of VBD transmission, since the vectors of infectious diseases know no political borders. PMID:26084000

  1. A single amino acid position in the helper component of cauliflower mosaic virus can change the spectrum of transmitting vector species.

    PubMed

    Moreno, Aranzazu; Hébrard, Eugénie; Uzest, Marilyne; Blanc, Stéphane; Fereres, Alberto

    2005-11-01

    Viruses frequently use insect vectors to effect rapid spread through host populations. In plant viruses, vector transmission is the major mode of transmission, used by nearly 80% of species described to date. Despite the importance of this phenomenon in epidemiology, the specificity of the virus-vector relationship is poorly understood at both the molecular and the evolutionary level, and very limited data are available on the precise viral protein motifs that control specificity. Here, using the aphid-transmitted Cauliflower mosaic virus (CaMV) as a biological model, we confirm that the "noncirculative" mode of transmission dominant in plant viruses (designated "mechanical vector transmission" in animal viruses) involves extremely specific virus-vector recognition, and we identify an amino acid position in the "helper component" (HC) protein of CaMV involved in such recognition. Site-directed mutagenesis revealed that changing the residue at this position can differentially affect transmission rates obtained with various aphid species, thus modifying the spectrum of vector species for CaMV. Most interestingly, in a virus line transmitted by a single vector species, we observed the rapid appearance of a spontaneous mutant specifically losing its transmissibility by another aphid species. Hence, in addition to the first identification of an HC motif directly involved in specific vector recognition, we demonstrate that change of a virus to a different vector species requires only a single mutation and can occur rapidly and spontaneously.

  2. Responses of wind erosion to climate-induced vegetation changes on the Colorado Plateau.

    PubMed

    Munson, Seth M; Belnap, Jayne; Okin, Gregory S

    2011-03-01

    Projected increases in aridity throughout the southwestern United States due to anthropogenic climate change will likely cause reductions in perennial vegetation cover, which leaves soil surfaces exposed to erosion. Accelerated rates of dust emission from wind erosion have large implications for ecosystems and human well-being, yet there is poor understanding of the sources and magnitude of dust emission in a hotter and drier climate. Here we use a two-stage approach to compare the susceptibility of grasslands and three different shrublands to wind erosion on the Colorado Plateau and demonstrate how climate can indirectly moderate the magnitude of aeolian sediment flux through different responses of dominant plants in these communities. First, using results from 20 y of vegetation monitoring, we found perennial grass cover in grasslands declined with increasing mean annual temperature in the previous year, whereas shrub cover in shrublands either showed no change or declined as temperature increased, depending on the species. Second, we used these vegetation monitoring results and measurements of soil stability as inputs into a field-validated wind erosion model and found that declines in perennial vegetation cover coupled with disturbance to biological soil crust resulted in an exponential increase in modeled aeolian sediment flux. Thus the effects of increased temperature on perennial plant cover and the correlation of declining plant cover with increased aeolian flux strongly suggest that sustained drought conditions across the southwest will accelerate the likelihood of dust production in the future on disturbed soil surfaces.

  3. Responses of wind erosion to climate-induced vegetation changes on the Colorado Plateau

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Munson, Seth M.; Belnap, Jayne; Okin, Gregory S.

    2011-01-01

    Projected increases in aridity throughout the southwestern United States due to anthropogenic climate change will likely cause reductions in perennial vegetation cover, which leaves soil surfaces exposed to erosion. Accelerated rates of dust emission from wind erosion have large implications for ecosystems and human well-being, yet there is poor understanding of the sources and magnitude of dust emission in a hotter and drier climate. Here we use a two-stage approach to compare the susceptibility of grasslands and three different shrublands to wind erosion on the Colorado Plateau and demonstrate how climate can indirectly moderate the magnitude of aeolian sediment flux through different responses of dominant plants in these communities. First, using results from 20 y of vegetation monitoring, we found perennial grass cover in grasslands declined with increasing mean annual temperature in the previous year, whereas shrub cover in shrublands either showed no change or declined as temperature increased, depending on the species. Second, we used these vegetation monitoring results and measurements of soil stability as inputs into a field-validated wind erosion model and found that declines in perennial vegetation cover coupled with disturbance to biological soil crust resulted in an exponential increase in modeled aeolian sediment flux. Thus the effects of increased temperature on perennial plant cover and the correlation of declining plant cover with increased aeolian flux strongly suggest that sustained drought conditions across the southwest will accelerate the likelihood of dust production in the future on disturbed soil surfaces.

  4. Responses of wind erosion to climate-induced vegetation changes on the Colorado Plateau

    PubMed Central

    Munson, Seth M.; Belnap, Jayne; Okin, Gregory S.

    2011-01-01

    Projected increases in aridity throughout the southwestern United States due to anthropogenic climate change will likely cause reductions in perennial vegetation cover, which leaves soil surfaces exposed to erosion. Accelerated rates of dust emission from wind erosion have large implications for ecosystems and human well-being, yet there is poor understanding of the sources and magnitude of dust emission in a hotter and drier climate. Here we use a two-stage approach to compare the susceptibility of grasslands and three different shrublands to wind erosion on the Colorado Plateau and demonstrate how climate can indirectly moderate the magnitude of aeolian sediment flux through different responses of dominant plants in these communities. First, using results from 20 y of vegetation monitoring, we found perennial grass cover in grasslands declined with increasing mean annual temperature in the previous year, whereas shrub cover in shrublands either showed no change or declined as temperature increased, depending on the species. Second, we used these vegetation monitoring results and measurements of soil stability as inputs into a field-validated wind erosion model and found that declines in perennial vegetation cover coupled with disturbance to biological soil crust resulted in an exponential increase in modeled aeolian sediment flux. Thus the effects of increased temperature on perennial plant cover and the correlation of declining plant cover with increased aeolian flux strongly suggest that sustained drought conditions across the southwest will accelerate the likelihood of dust production in the future on disturbed soil surfaces. PMID:21368143

  5. Modelling the influence of predicted future climate change on the risk of wind damage within New Zealand's planted forests.

    PubMed

    Moore, John R; Watt, Michael S

    2015-08-01

    Wind is the major abiotic disturbance in New Zealand's planted forests, but little is known about how the risk of wind damage may be affected by future climate change. We linked a mechanistic wind damage model (ForestGALES) to an empirical growth model for radiata pine (Pinus radiata D. Don) and a process-based growth model (cenw) to predict the risk of wind damage under different future emissions scenarios and assumptions about the future wind climate. The cenw model was used to estimate site productivity for constant CO2 concentration at 1990 values and for assumed increases in CO2 concentration from current values to those expected during 2040 and 2090 under the B1 (low), A1B (mid-range) and A2 (high) emission scenarios. Stand development was modelled for different levels of site productivity, contrasting silvicultural regimes and sites across New Zealand. The risk of wind damage was predicted for each regime and emission scenario combination using the ForestGALES model. The sensitivity to changes in the intensity of the future wind climate was also examined. Results showed that increased tree growth rates under the different emissions scenarios had the greatest impact on the risk of wind damage. The increase in risk was greatest for stands growing at high stand density under the A2 emissions scenario with increased CO2 concentration. The increased productivity under this scenario resulted in increased tree height, without a corresponding increase in diameter, leading to more slender trees that were predicted to be at greater risk from wind damage. The risk of wind damage was further increased by the modest increases in the extreme wind climate that are predicted to occur. These results have implications for the development of silvicultural regimes that are resilient to climate change and also indicate that future productivity gains may be offset by greater losses from disturbances.

  6. Oceanography. Centennial changes in North Pacific anoxia linked to tropical trade winds.

    PubMed

    Deutsch, Curtis; Berelson, William; Thunell, Robert; Weber, Thomas; Tems, Caitlin; McManus, James; Crusius, John; Ito, Taka; Baumgartner, Timothy; Ferreira, Vicente; Mey, Jacob; van Geen, Alexander

    2014-08-01

    Climate warming is expected to reduce oxygen (O2) supply to the ocean and expand its oxygen minimum zones (OMZs). We reconstructed variations in the extent of North Pacific anoxia since 1850 using a geochemical proxy for denitrification (δ(15)N) from multiple sediment cores. Increasing δ(15)N since ~1990 records an expansion of anoxia, consistent with observed O2 trends. However, this was preceded by a longer declining δ(15)N trend that implies that the anoxic zone was shrinking for most of the 20th century. Both periods can be explained by changes in winds over the tropical Pacific that drive upwelling, biological productivity, and O2 demand within the OMZ. If equatorial Pacific winds resume their predicted weakening trend, the ocean's largest anoxic zone will contract despite a global O2 decline.

  7. Evidence for link between modelled trends in Antarctic sea ice and underestimated westerly wind changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Purich, Ariaan; Cai, Wenju; England, Matthew H.; Cowan, Tim

    2016-02-01

    Despite global warming, total Antarctic sea ice coverage increased over 1979-2013. However, the majority of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models simulate a decline. Mechanisms causing this discrepancy have so far remained elusive. Here we show that weaker trends in the intensification of the Southern Hemisphere westerly wind jet simulated by the models may contribute to this disparity. During austral summer, a strengthened jet leads to increased upwelling of cooler subsurface water and strengthened equatorward transport, conducive to increased sea ice. As the majority of models underestimate summer jet trends, this cooling process is underestimated compared with observations and is insufficient to offset warming in the models. Through the sea ice-albedo feedback, models produce a high-latitude surface ocean warming and sea ice decline, contrasting the observed net cooling and sea ice increase. A realistic simulation of observed wind changes may be crucial for reproducing the recent observed sea ice increase.

  8. Topological Winding Number Change and Broken Inversion Symmetry in a Hofstadter's Butterfly.

    PubMed

    Wang, Peng; Cheng, Bin; Martynov, Oleg; Miao, Tengfei; Jing, Lei; Taniguchi, Takashi; Watanabe, Kenji; Aji, Vivek; Lau, Chun Ning; Bockrath, Marc

    2015-10-14

    Graphene's quantum Hall features are associated with a π Berry's phase due to its odd topological pseudospin winding number. In nearly aligned graphene-hexagonal BN heterostructures, the lattice and orientation mismatch produce a superlattice potential, yielding secondary Dirac points in graphene's electronic spectrum, and under a magnetic field, a Hofstadter butterfly-like energy spectrum. Here we report an additional π Berry's phase shift when tuning the Fermi level past the secondary Dirac points, originating from a change in topological winding number from odd to even when the Fermi-surface electron orbit begins to enclose the secondary Dirac points. At large hole doping inversion symmetry breaking generates a distinct hexagonal pattern in the longitudinal resistivity versus magnetic field and charge density. Major Hofstadter butterfly features persist up to ∼100 K, demonstrating the robustness of the fractal energy spectrum in these systems. PMID:26401645

  9. Evidence for link between modelled trends in Antarctic sea ice and underestimated westerly wind changes.

    PubMed

    Purich, Ariaan; Cai, Wenju; England, Matthew H; Cowan, Tim

    2016-01-01

    Despite global warming, total Antarctic sea ice coverage increased over 1979-2013. However, the majority of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models simulate a decline. Mechanisms causing this discrepancy have so far remained elusive. Here we show that weaker trends in the intensification of the Southern Hemisphere westerly wind jet simulated by the models may contribute to this disparity. During austral summer, a strengthened jet leads to increased upwelling of cooler subsurface water and strengthened equatorward transport, conducive to increased sea ice. As the majority of models underestimate summer jet trends, this cooling process is underestimated compared with observations and is insufficient to offset warming in the models. Through the sea ice-albedo feedback, models produce a high-latitude surface ocean warming and sea ice decline, contrasting the observed net cooling and sea ice increase. A realistic simulation of observed wind changes may be crucial for reproducing the recent observed sea ice increase. PMID:26842498

  10. Simulated effects of southern hemispheric wind changes on the Pacific oxygen minimum zone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Getzlaff, Julia; Dietze, Heiner; Oschlies, Andreas

    2016-01-01

    A coupled ocean biogeochemistry-circulation model is used to investigate the impact of observed past and anticipated future wind changes in the Southern Hemisphere on the oxygen minimum zone in the tropical Pacific. We consider the industrial period until the end of the 21st century and distinguish effects due to a strengthening of the westerlies from effects of a southward shift of the westerlies that is accompanied by a poleward expansion of the tropical trade winds. Our model results show that a strengthening of the westerlies counteracts part of the warming-induced decline in the global marine oxygen inventory. A poleward shift of the trade-westerlies boundary, however, triggers a significant decrease of oxygen in the tropical oxygen minimum zone. In a business-as-usual CO2 emission scenario, the poleward shift of the trade-westerlies boundary and warming-induced increase in stratification contribute equally to the expansion of suboxic waters in the tropical Pacific.

  11. Evidence for link between modelled trends in Antarctic sea ice and underestimated westerly wind changes.

    PubMed

    Purich, Ariaan; Cai, Wenju; England, Matthew H; Cowan, Tim

    2016-02-04

    Despite global warming, total Antarctic sea ice coverage increased over 1979-2013. However, the majority of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models simulate a decline. Mechanisms causing this discrepancy have so far remained elusive. Here we show that weaker trends in the intensification of the Southern Hemisphere westerly wind jet simulated by the models may contribute to this disparity. During austral summer, a strengthened jet leads to increased upwelling of cooler subsurface water and strengthened equatorward transport, conducive to increased sea ice. As the majority of models underestimate summer jet trends, this cooling process is underestimated compared with observations and is insufficient to offset warming in the models. Through the sea ice-albedo feedback, models produce a high-latitude surface ocean warming and sea ice decline, contrasting the observed net cooling and sea ice increase. A realistic simulation of observed wind changes may be crucial for reproducing the recent observed sea ice increase.

  12. Evidence for link between modelled trends in Antarctic sea ice and underestimated westerly wind changes

    PubMed Central

    Purich, Ariaan; Cai, Wenju; England, Matthew H.; Cowan, Tim

    2016-01-01

    Despite global warming, total Antarctic sea ice coverage increased over 1979–2013. However, the majority of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models simulate a decline. Mechanisms causing this discrepancy have so far remained elusive. Here we show that weaker trends in the intensification of the Southern Hemisphere westerly wind jet simulated by the models may contribute to this disparity. During austral summer, a strengthened jet leads to increased upwelling of cooler subsurface water and strengthened equatorward transport, conducive to increased sea ice. As the majority of models underestimate summer jet trends, this cooling process is underestimated compared with observations and is insufficient to offset warming in the models. Through the sea ice-albedo feedback, models produce a high-latitude surface ocean warming and sea ice decline, contrasting the observed net cooling and sea ice increase. A realistic simulation of observed wind changes may be crucial for reproducing the recent observed sea ice increase. PMID:26842498

  13. Centennial changes in North Pacific anoxia linked to tropical trade winds

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Deutsch, Curtis; Berelson, William; Thunell, Robert; Weber, Thomas; Tems, Caitlin; McManus, James; Crusius, John; Ito, Taka; Baumgartner, Timothy; Ferreira, Vicente; Mey, Jacob; van Geen, Alexander

    2014-01-01

    Climate warming is expected to reduce oxygen (O2) supply to the ocean and expand its oxygen minimum zones (OMZs). We reconstructed variations in the extent of North Pacific anoxia since 1850 using a geochemical proxy for denitrification (δ15N) from multiple sediment cores. Increasing δ15N since ~1990 records an expansion of anoxia, consistent with observed O2 trends. However, this was preceded by a longer declining δ15N trend that implies that the anoxic zone was shrinking for most of the 20th century. Both periods can be explained by changes in winds over the tropical Pacific that drive upwelling, biological productivity, and O2 demand within the OMZ. If equatorial Pacific winds resume their predicted weakening trend, the ocean’s largest anoxic zone will contract despite a global O2 decline.

  14. Electrostatic Solitary Waves in the Solar Wind: Evidence for Instability at Solar Wind Current Sheets

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Malaspina, David M.; Newman, David L.; Wilson, Lynn Bruce; Goetz, Keith; Kellogg, Paul J.; Kerstin, Kris

    2013-01-01

    A strong spatial association between bipolar electrostatic solitary waves (ESWs) and magnetic current sheets (CSs) in the solar wind is reported here for the first time. This association requires that the plasma instabilities (e.g., Buneman, electron two stream) which generate ESWs are preferentially localized to solar wind CSs. Distributions of CS properties (including shear angle, thickness, solar wind speed, and vector magnetic field change) are examined for differences between CSs associated with ESWs and randomly chosen CSs. Possible mechanisms for producing ESW-generating instabilities at solar wind CSs are considered, including magnetic reconnection.

  15. Global Climate Change and Its Potential Impact on Disease Transmission by Salinity-Tolerant Mosquito Vectors in Coastal Zones

    PubMed Central

    Ramasamy, Ranjan; Surendran, Sinnathamby Noble

    2012-01-01

    Global climate change can potentially increase the transmission of mosquito vector-borne diseases such as malaria, lymphatic filariasis, and dengue in many parts of the world. These predictions are based on the effects of changing temperature, rainfall, and humidity on mosquito breeding and survival, the more rapid development of ingested pathogens in mosquitoes and the more frequent blood feeds at moderately higher ambient temperatures. An expansion of saline and brackish water bodies (water with <0.5 ppt or parts per thousand, 0.5–30 ppt and >30 ppt salt are termed fresh, brackish, and saline respectively) will also take place as a result of global warming causing a rise in sea levels in coastal zones. Its possible impact on the transmission of mosquito-borne diseases has, however, not been adequately appreciated. The relevant impacts of global climate change on the transmission of mosquito-borne diseases in coastal zones are discussed with reference to the Ross–McDonald equation and modeling studies. Evidence is presented to show that an expansion of brackish water bodies in coastal zones can increase the densities of salinity-tolerant mosquitoes like Anopheles sundaicus and Culex sitiens, and lead to the adaptation of fresh water mosquito vectors like Anopheles culicifacies, Anopheles stephensi, Aedes aegypti, and Aedes albopictus to salinity. Rising sea levels may therefore act synergistically with global climate change to increase the transmission of mosquito-borne diseases in coastal zones. Greater attention therefore needs to be devoted to monitoring disease incidence and preimaginal development of vector mosquitoes in artificial and natural coastal brackish/saline habitats. It is important that national and international health agencies are aware of the increased risk of mosquito-borne diseases in coastal zones and develop preventive and mitigating strategies. Application of appropriate counter measures can greatly reduce the potential for

  16. Global climate change and its potential impact on disease transmission by salinity-tolerant mosquito vectors in coastal zones.

    PubMed

    Ramasamy, Ranjan; Surendran, Sinnathamby Noble

    2012-01-01

    Global climate change can potentially increase the transmission of mosquito vector-borne diseases such as malaria, lymphatic filariasis, and dengue in many parts of the world. These predictions are based on the effects of changing temperature, rainfall, and humidity on mosquito breeding and survival, the more rapid development of ingested pathogens in mosquitoes and the more frequent blood feeds at moderately higher ambient temperatures. An expansion of saline and brackish water bodies (water with <0.5 ppt or parts per thousand, 0.5-30 ppt and >30 ppt salt are termed fresh, brackish, and saline respectively) will also take place as a result of global warming causing a rise in sea levels in coastal zones. Its possible impact on the transmission of mosquito-borne diseases has, however, not been adequately appreciated. The relevant impacts of global climate change on the transmission of mosquito-borne diseases in coastal zones are discussed with reference to the Ross-McDonald equation and modeling studies. Evidence is presented to show that an expansion of brackish water bodies in coastal zones can increase the densities of salinity-tolerant mosquitoes like Anopheles sundaicus and Culex sitiens, and lead to the adaptation of fresh water mosquito vectors like Anopheles culicifacies, Anopheles stephensi, Aedes aegypti, and Aedes albopictus to salinity. Rising sea levels may therefore act synergistically with global climate change to increase the transmission of mosquito-borne diseases in coastal zones. Greater attention therefore needs to be devoted to monitoring disease incidence and preimaginal development of vector mosquitoes in artificial and natural coastal brackish/saline habitats. It is important that national and international health agencies are aware of the increased risk of mosquito-borne diseases in coastal zones and develop preventive and mitigating strategies. Application of appropriate counter measures can greatly reduce the potential for increased

  17. Interannual bottom pressure changes in the Arafura Sea and the remote influence of equatorial Pacific winds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ponte, R. M.; Piecuch, C. G.; Quinn, K. J.

    2012-12-01

    Ocean bottom pressure (OBP) is a crucial quantity for understanding changes in ocean circulation and climate, yet general knowledge of its regional variability on climate timescales is lacking. General circulation modeling studies suggest that interannual OBP changes can contribute importantly to low frequency variability in shallow shelf regions, but this suggestion has not been investigated using observations. Taking advantage of recently released ocean mass data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) as well as an ocean general circulation model, we investigate the nature of interannual OBP variability in the Arafura Sea between Australia and Papua New Guinea. In this region, time series from model and data agree very well (correlation coefficients >0.9), attesting to the presence of OBP variations of order 1 cm sea level equivalent with long periods (>1 yr) over large spatial scales (>750 km). These OBP changes explain most of the interannual sea level variance in this region. Moreover, these interannual OBP time series are significantly correlated with ENSO indices (correlation coefficients >0.8), suggesting ties to broader scale climate variability. Through numerical forcing experiments, we demonstrate explicitly that the OBP changes in the Arafura Sea derive mostly from remote wind forcing over the equatorial Pacific, with local wind driving playing only a minor role. A mixture of equatorially- and coastally-trapped waves is likely involved in what is primarily a baroclinic response to remote winds that leads to a strongly barotropic signal in the shallow Arafura Sea. These results suggest meaningful low frequency signals reside in GRACE data and encourage the further use of GRACE fields for investigations of regional oceanic variability on climate timescales.

  18. Mars Pathfinder Landing Site: Evidence for a Change in Wind Regime and Climate from Lander and Orbiter Data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Greeley, R.; Kraft, M. D.; Kuzmin, R. O.; Bridges, N. T.

    1999-01-01

    Surface features related to the wind are observed in data from the Mars Pathfinder lander and from orbit by the Viking Orbiter and Mars Global Surveyor missions. Features seen from the surface include wind tails associated with small rocks, barchanoid duneforms, ripplelike patterns, and ventifact flutes cut into some rocks. Features seen from orbit include wind tails associated with impact craters, ridges inferred to be duneforms, and modified crater rims interpreted to have been eroded and mantled by windblown material. The orientations of these features show two prevailing directions, one inferred to represent winds from the northeast which is consistent with strongest winds predicted by a general circulation model to occur during the Martian northern winter under current conditions, and a second wind pattern oriented approx. 90 degrees to the first. This latter wind could be from the W-NW or from the E-SE and was responsible for cutting the ventifacts and modifying the crater rims. The two wind regimes could reflect a change in climate related to Mars' obliquity or some other, unknown factor. Regardless of the cause, the MPF area has been subjected to a complex pattern of winds and supply of small particles, in which the original surface formed by sedimentary processes from Tiu and Ares Vallis events has been modified by repeated burial and exhumation.

  19. Method for Calculating Uncertainty in Automated Cloud-tracking Wind Measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blalock, J.; Sayanagi, K. M.

    2015-12-01

    We present a method to estimate the uncertainties in remote-sensing wind measurements of planetary atmospheres. Many planetary missions have measured atmospheric wind speeds by tracking the movements of the clouds. One of the common cloud-tracking methods used today is the two-dimensional Correlation Imaging Velocimetry (CIV) technique, which returns a two-dimensional wind vector field from a pair of images taken at two different times. The CIV algorithm computes a wind vector by calculating the two-dimensional correlation between the pair of maps; a peak in the correlation is judged to be a match. For zonal wind measurements, error bars can be represented by the zonal standard deviation of the wind vectors; while this serves as an indicator of the overall quality of the wind field, it does not address the quality of the individual vectors. Furthermore, the zonal standard deviation contains contributions from both real spatial variations in the wind speed as well as uncertainty in the measurements. This raises a difficulty in distinguishing small, real changes in the wind field from the uncertainties in the measurement. We have developed a technique which isolates real spatial variations from measurement uncertainties by analyzing the correlation fields produced in the CIV algorithm. We determine the size, shape, and orientation of the peak by fitting an ellipse to the peak and calculating the area, eccentricity, and orientation angle of the ellipse. Combining these metrics provides a measure of the uncertainty associated with individual wind vectors. Vectors with smaller, sharper, more circular peaks will have a smaller uncertainty than vectors with larger, flatter, more elliptical peaks. We use our new technique to make zonal wind measurements of Saturn using Cassini ISS images taken between 2004 and 2014. Our measurements reveal small temporal changes in the zonal wind profiles. Our work has been supported by NASA PATM NNX14AK07G and NSF AAG 1212216.

  20. Control of finger force vectors with changes in fingertip referent coordinates.

    PubMed

    Wu, Yen-Hsun; Zatsiorsky, Vladimir M; Latash, Mark L

    2013-01-01

    The central hypothesis explored in the experiment is that adjustments of fingertip force vectors during object manipulation could result from a simple scaling rule applied to commands to individual digits. The commands have been associated with referent coordinates of the digit tips. The subjects performed quick lifting movements (over 20 cm in under 0.5 s) of a horizontally oriented handle with different combinations of the external load and torque. The prismatic grasp was used with the 4 fingers pressing on the bottom of the handle and the thumb acting on its top. Principal component and correlation analyses applied to the normal and tangential force vector components confirmed that the force direction of each digit was kept nearly constant in the object-centered referent frame across the loading conditions and movement phases. The middle and ring fingers showed weaker correlations between the force components as compared to the index and little fingers. The differences were likely related to the different roles of the normal force components in the moment of force production. The neural control of the hand, within the studied task, may be adequately described as a simple rule applied to a handful of parameters, such as the referent digit-tip coordinates. PMID:23394398

  1. Control of finger force vectors with changes in fingertip referent coordinates

    PubMed Central

    Wu, Yen-Hsun; Zatsiorsky, Vladimir M.; Latash, Mark L.

    2013-01-01

    The central hypothesis explored in the experiment is that adjustments of fingertip force vectors during object manipulation could result from a simple scaling rule applied to commands to individual digits. The commands have been associated with referent coordinates of the digit tips. The subjects performed quick lifting movements (over 20 cm in under 0.5 s) of a horizontally oriented handle with different combinations of the external load and torque. The prismatic grasp was used with the four fingers pressing on the bottom of the handle and the thumb acting on its top. Principal component and correlation analyses applied to the normal and tangential force vector components confirmed that the force direction of each digit was kept nearly constant in the object-centered referent frame across the loading conditions and movement phases. The middle and ring fingers showed weaker correlations between the force components as compared to the index and little fingers. The differences were likely related to the different roles of the normal force components in the moment of force production. The neural control of the hand, within the studied task, may be adequately described as a simple rule applied to a handful of parameters, such as the referent digit-tip coordinates. PMID:23394398

  2. Evolution of dengue in Sri Lanka-changes in the virus, vector, and climate.

    PubMed

    Sirisena, P D N N; Noordeen, F

    2014-02-01

    Despite the presence of dengue in Sri Lanka since the early 1960s, dengue has become a major public health issue, with a high morbidity and mortality. Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus are the vectors responsible for the transmission of dengue viruses (DENV). The four DENV serotypes (1, 2, 3, and 4) have been co-circulating in Sri Lanka for more than 30 years. The new genotype of DENV-1 has replaced an old genotype, and new clades of DENV-3 genotype III have replaced older clades. The emergence of new clades of DENV-3 in the recent past coincided with an abrupt increase in the number of dengue fever (DF)/dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) cases, implicating this serotype in severe epidemics. Climatic factors play a pivotal role in the epidemiological pattern of DF/DHF in terms of the number of cases, severity of illness, shifts in affected age groups, and the expansion of spread from urban to rural areas. There is a regular incidence of DF/DHF throughout the year, with the highest incidence during the rainy months. To reduce the morbidity and mortality associated with DF/DHF, it is important to implement effective vector control programs in the country. The economic impact of DF/DHF results from the expenditure on DF/DHF critical care units in several hospitals and the cost of case management.

  3. Incidence of Vector-borne Disease and Climate Change: A Study in Semi-arid Algeria

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blakey, T.; Bounoua, L.

    2012-12-01

    Leishmaniases are among the most important emerging and resurging vector-borne diseases, second only to malaria in terms of the number of affected people. Leishmaniases are endemic in 88 countries worldwide and threaten about 350 million people (WHO, 2007). Since the first reported case of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ZCL) in Saida, Algeria in 1991, 1,275 cases have been recorded (Makhlouf & Houti, 2010) with the vast majority of study-area cases (99%) reported between the years of 2000 and 2009. An investigation of potential climatic indicators for the apparent shift in disease prevalence was conducted by comparing anomalies in the climate data specific to the local pathogen cycle. It was determined that long term climate trends have resulted in conditions that promote the prevalence of ZCL. Increased precipitation have resulted in greater vegetation and promoted host and vector population growth through a trophic cascade. Increased minimum temperatures have lengthened the annual duration of sandfly activity. Short term variations in maximum temperatures, however show a correlation with disease suppression in the subsequent years. These findings indicate a potential to forecast the risk of ZCL infection through models of the trophic cascade and sandfly population growth.

  4. Effects of Microclimate Condition Changes Due to Land Use and Land Cover Changes on the Survivorship of Malaria Vectors in China-Myanmar Border Region.

    PubMed

    Zhong, Daibin; Wang, Xiaoming; Xu, Tielong; Zhou, Guofa; Wang, Ying; Lee, Ming-Chieh; Hartsel, Joshua A; Cui, Liwang; Zheng, Bin; Yan, Guiyun

    2016-01-01

    In the past decade, developing countries have been experiencing rapid land use and land cover changes, including deforestation and cultivation of previously forested land. However, little is known about the impact of deforestation and land-use changes on the life history of malaria vectors and their effects on malaria transmission. This study examined the effects of deforestation and crop cultivation on the adult survivorship of major malaria mosquitoes, Anopheles sinensis and An. minimus in the China-Myanmar border region. We examined three conditions: indoor, forested, and banana plantation. Mean survival time of An. sinensis in banana plantation environment was significantly longer than those in forested environment, and mosquitoes exhibited the longest longevity in the indoor environment. This pattern held for both males and females, and also for An. minimus. To further test the effect of temperature on mosquito survival, we used two study sites with different elevation and ambient temperatures. Significantly higher survivorship of both species was found in sites with lower elevation and higher ambient temperature. Increased vector survival in the deforested area could have an important impact on malaria transmission in Southeast Asia. Understanding how deforestation impacts vector survivorship can help combat malaria transmission.

  5. Effects of Microclimate Condition Changes Due to Land Use and Land Cover Changes on the Survivorship of Malaria Vectors in China-Myanmar Border Region

    PubMed Central

    Zhong, Daibin; Wang, Xiaoming; Xu, Tielong; Zhou, Guofa; Wang, Ying; Lee, Ming-Chieh; Hartsel, Joshua A.; Cui, Liwang; Zheng, Bin; Yan, Guiyun

    2016-01-01

    In the past decade, developing countries have been experiencing rapid land use and land cover changes, including deforestation and cultivation of previously forested land. However, little is known about the impact of deforestation and land-use changes on the life history of malaria vectors and their effects on malaria transmission. This study examined the effects of deforestation and crop cultivation on the adult survivorship of major malaria mosquitoes, Anopheles sinensis and An. minimus in the China-Myanmar border region. We examined three conditions: indoor, forested, and banana plantation. Mean survival time of An. sinensis in banana plantation environment was significantly longer than those in forested environment, and mosquitoes exhibited the longest longevity in the indoor environment. This pattern held for both males and females, and also for An. minimus. To further test the effect of temperature on mosquito survival, we used two study sites with different elevation and ambient temperatures. Significantly higher survivorship of both species was found in sites with lower elevation and higher ambient temperature. Increased vector survival in the deforested area could have an important impact on malaria transmission in Southeast Asia. Understanding how deforestation impacts vector survivorship can help combat malaria transmission. PMID:27171475

  6. The national assessment of shoreline change: A GIS compilation of vector shorelines and associated shoreline change data for the New England and Mid-Atlantic Coasts

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Himmelstoss, Emily A.; Kratzmann, Meredith; Hapke, Cheryl; Thieler, E. Robert; List, Jeffrey

    2010-01-01

    Sandy ocean beaches are a popular recreational destination, often surrounded by communities containing valuable real estate. Development is on the rise despite the fact that coastal infrastructure is subjected to flooding and erosion. As a result, there is an increased demand for accurate information regarding past and present shoreline changes. The U.S. Geological Survey's National Assessment of Shoreline Change Project has compiled a comprehensive database of digital vector shorelines and shoreline-change rates for the New England and Mid-Atlantic Coasts. There is currently no widely accepted standard for analyzing shoreline change. Existing measurement and rate-calculation methods vary from study to study and preclude combining results into statewide or regional assessments. The impetus behind the National Assessment project was to develop a standardized method that is consistent from coast to coast for measuring changes in shoreline position. The goal was to facilitate the process of periodically and systematically updating the results in an internally consistent manner.

  7. Magnetospheric ULF waves with an increasing amplitude induced by solar wind dynamic pressure changes: THEMIS observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shen, X.; Zong, Q.; Shi, Q.; Tian, A.; Sun, W.; Wang, Y.; Zhou, X.; Fu, S.; Angelopoulos, V.; Pu, Z.; Hartinger, M.

    2014-12-01

    We report the in situ observation of the magnetospheric ultra-low frequency (ULF) waves with an increasing amplitude induced by solar wind dynamic pressure changes. We examine the magnetospheric responses to solar wind dynamic pressure enhancements from April 1, 2007 to December 31, 2012, and find six ULF wave events with slow but clear wave amplitude increase. The amplitudes of ion velocities and magnetic field of these waves continuously increase by 2.1 ˜ 4.4 times during three to six wave cycles. We choose two typical cases to further investigate the cause of this wave amplitude increase. We find that the wave amplitude growth is mainly contributed by the toroidal mode wave. Interestingly, toroidal mode waves are standing, while compressional and poloidal mode waves are not. Thus, we suspect that the wave amplitude increase may be caused by the superposition of two wave sources. One wave source is the standing wave excited by the solar wind dynamic impulse. Additionally, fast mode compressional wave continuously shakes the magnetic field lines. The azimuthal component of this magnetic perturbation is the second wave source. Furthermore, the simple model calculation of superposing two waves match the observations pretty well.

  8. Spectral Anisotropy of Elsässer Variables in Two-dimensional Wave-vector Space as Observed in the Fast Solar Wind Turbulence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yan, Limei; He, Jiansen; Zhang, Lei; Tu, Chuanyi; Marsch, Eckart; Chen, Christopher H. K.; Wang, Xin; Wang, Linghua; Wicks, Robert T.

    2016-01-01

    Intensive studies have been conducted to understand the anisotropy of solar wind turbulence. However, the anisotropy of Elsässer variables ({{\\boldsymbol{Z}}}+/- ) in 2D wave-vector space has yet to be investigated. Here we first verify the transformation based on the projection-slice theorem between the power spectral density {{PSD}}2{{D}}({k}\\parallel ,{k}\\perp ) and the spatial correlation function {{CF}}2{{D}}({r}\\parallel ,{r}\\perp ). Based on the application of the transformation to the magnetic field and the particle measurements from the WIND spacecraft, we investigate the spectral anisotropy of Elsässer variables ({{\\boldsymbol{Z}}}+/- ), and the distribution of residual energy {E}{{R}}, Alfvén ratio {R}{{A}}, and Elsässer ratio {R}{{E}} in the ({k}\\parallel ,{k}\\perp ) space. The spectra {{PSD}}2{{D}}({k}\\parallel ,{k}\\perp ) of {\\boldsymbol{B}}, {\\boldsymbol{V}}, and {{\\boldsymbol{Z}}}{major} (the larger of {{\\boldsymbol{Z}}}+/- ) show a similar pattern that {{PSD}}2{{D}}({k}\\parallel ,{k}\\perp ) is mainly distributed along a ridge inclined toward the k⊥ axis. This is probably the signature of the oblique Alfvénic fluctuations propagating outwardly. Unlike those of {\\boldsymbol{B}}, {\\boldsymbol{V}}, and {{\\boldsymbol{Z}}}{major}, the spectrum {{PSD}}2{{D}}({k}\\parallel ,{k}\\perp ) of {{\\boldsymbol{Z}}}{minor} is distributed mainly along the k⊥ axis. Close to the k⊥ axis, | {E}{{R}}| becomes larger while {R}{{A}} becomes smaller, suggesting that the dominance of magnetic energy over kinetic energy becomes more significant at small k∥. {R}{{E}} is larger at small k∥, implying that {{PSD}}2{{D}}({k}\\parallel ,{k}\\perp ) of {{\\boldsymbol{Z}}}{minor} is more concentrated along the k⊥ direction as compared to that of {{\\boldsymbol{Z}}}{major}. The residual energy condensate at small k∥ is consistent with simulation results in which {E}{{R}} is spontaneously generated by Alfvén wave interaction.

  9. An assessment of wind energy potential in Iberia under climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Santos, João A.; Rochinha, Carlos; Reyers, Mark; Pinto, Joaquim G.

    2015-04-01

    Wind energy potential in Iberia is assessed for recent-past (1961-2000) and future (2041-2070) climates. For recent-past, a COSMO-CLM simulation driven by ERA-40 is used. COSMO-CLM simulations driven by ECHAM5 following the A1B scenario are used for future projections. A 2 MW rated power wind turbine is selected. Mean potentials, inter-annual variability and irregularity are discussed on annual/seasonal scales and on a grid resolution of 20 km. For detailed regional assessments eight target sites are considered. For recent-past conditions, the highest daily mean potentials are found in winter over northern and eastern Iberia, particularly on high-elevation or coastal regions. In northwestern Iberia, daily potentials frequently reach maximum wind energy output (50 MWh day-1), particularly in winter. Southern Andalucía reveals high potentials throughout the year, whereas the Ebro valley and central-western coast show high potentials in summer. The irregularity in annual potentials is moderate (<15% of mean output), but exacerbated in winter (40%). Climate change projections show significant decreases over most of Iberia (<2 MWh day-1). The strong enhancement of autumn potentials in Southern Andalucía is noteworthy (>2 MWh day-1). The northward displacement of North Atlantic westerly winds (autumn-spring) and the strengthening of easterly flows (summer) are key drivers of future projections. Santos, J.A.; Rochinha, C.; Liberato, M.L.R.; Reyers, M.; Pinto, J.G. (2015) Projected changes in wind energy potentials over Iberia. Renewable Energy, 75, 1: 68-80. doi: 10.1016/j.renene.2014.09.026 Acknowledgements: This work was partially supported by FEDER (Fundo Europeu de Desenvolvimento Regional) funds through the COMPETE (Programa Operacional Factores de Competitividade) and by national funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal) under project STORMEx FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER-019524 (PTDC/AAC-CLI/121339/2010).

  10. Wind Disturbance Produced Changes in Tree Species Assemblage in the Peruvian Amazon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rifai, S. W.; Chambers, J. Q.; Negron Juarez, R. I.; Ramirez, F.; Tello, R.; Alegria Muñoz, W.

    2010-12-01

    Wind disturbance has been a frequently overlooked abiotic cause of mass tree mortality in the Amazon basin. In the Peruvian Amazon these wind disturbances are produced by meteorological events such as convective systems. Downbursts for example produce short term descendent wind speeds that can be in excess of 30 m s-1. These are capable of producing tree blowdowns which have been reported to be as large as 33 km2 in the Amazon basin. We used the chronosequence of Landsat Satellite imagery to find and locate where these blowdowns have occurred in the Loreto region of the Peruvian Amazon. Spectral Mixture Analysis was used to estimate the proportion landcover of green vegetation, non-photosynthetic vegetation (NPV), soil and shade in each pixel. The change in NPV was calculated by subtracting the NPV signal in the Landsat image prior to the blowdown occurrence, from the image following the disturbance. Our prior research has established a linear relationship between tree mortality and change in NPV. It is hypothesized that these mass tree mortality events result in changes in the tree species assemblage of affected forests. Here we present preliminary tree species assemblage data from two sites in the Peruvian Amazon near Iquitos, Peru. The site (ALP) at the Allpahuayo Mishana reserve (3.945 S, 73.455 W) is 30 km south of Iquitos, Peru, and hosts the remnants of a 50 ha blowdown that occurred in either 1992 or 1993. Another site (NAPO) on the Napo river about 60 km north of Iquitos, is the location of an approximately 300 ha blowdown that occurred in 1998. At each site, a 3000 m x 10 m transect encompassing non disturbed and disturbed areas was installed, and trees greater than 10 cm diameter at breast height were measured for diameter, height and were identified to the species. Stem density of trees with diameter at breast height > 10 cm, and tree height appear to be similar both inside and outside the blowdown affected areas of the forests at both sites. At the ALP

  11. Climate change impacts on the power generation potential of a European mid-century wind farms scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tobin, Isabelle; Jerez, Sonia; Vautard, Robert; Thais, Françoise; van Meijgaard, Erik; Prein, Andreas; Déqué, Michel; Kotlarski, Sven; Fox Maule, Cathrine; Nikulin, Grigory; Noël, Thomas; Teichmann, Claas

    2016-03-01

    Wind energy resource is subject to changes in climate. To investigate the impacts of climate change on future European wind power generation potential, we analyze a multi-model ensemble of the most recent EURO-CORDEX regional climate simulations at the 12 km grid resolution. We developed a mid-century wind power plant scenario to focus the impact assessment on relevant locations for future wind power industry. We found that, under two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios, changes in the annual energy yield of the future European wind farms fleet as a whole will remain within ±5% across the 21st century. At country to local scales, wind farm yields will undergo changes up to 15% in magnitude, according to the large majority of models, but smaller than 5% in magnitude for most regions and models. The southern fleets such as the Iberian and Italian fleets are likely to be the most affected. With regard to variability, changes are essentially small or poorly significant from subdaily to interannual time scales.

  12. Modeled response of the West Nile virus vector Culex quinquefasciatus to changing climate using the dynamic mosquito simulation model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morin, Cory W.; Comrie, Andrew C.

    2010-09-01

    Climate can strongly influence the population dynamics of disease vectors and is consequently a key component of disease ecology. Future climate change and variability may alter the location and seasonality of many disease vectors, possibly increasing the risk of disease transmission to humans. The mosquito species Culex quinquefasciatus is a concern across the southern United States because of its role as a West Nile virus vector and its affinity for urban environments. Using established relationships between atmospheric variables (temperature and precipitation) and mosquito development, we have created the Dynamic Mosquito Simulation Model (DyMSiM) to simulate Cx. quinquefasciatus population dynamics. The model is driven with climate data and validated against mosquito count data from Pasco County, Florida and Coachella Valley, California. Using 1-week and 2-week filters, mosquito trap data are reproduced well by the model ( P < 0.0001). Dry environments in southern California produce different mosquito population trends than moist locations in Florida. Florida and California mosquito populations are generally temperature-limited in winter. In California, locations are water-limited through much of the year. Using future climate projection data generated by the National Center for Atmospheric Research CCSM3 general circulation model, we applied temperature and precipitation offsets to the climate data at each location to evaluate mosquito population sensitivity to possible future climate conditions. We found that temperature and precipitation shifts act interdependently to cause remarkable changes in modeled mosquito population dynamics. Impacts include a summer population decline from drying in California due to loss of immature mosquito habitats, and in Florida a decrease in late-season mosquito populations due to drier late summer conditions.

  13. Impact of climate change upon vector born diseases in Europe and Africa using ENSEMBLES Regional Climate Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Caminade, Cyril; Morse, Andy

    2010-05-01

    Climate variability is an important component in determining the incidence of a number of diseases with significant human/animal health and socioeconomic impacts. The most important diseases affecting health are vector-borne, such as malaria, Rift Valley Fever and including those that are tick borne, with over 3 billion of the world population at risk. Malaria alone is responsible for at least one million deaths annually, with 80% of malaria deaths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa. The climate has a large impact upon the incidence of vector-borne diseases; directly via the development rates and survival of both the pathogen and the vector, and indirectly through changes in the environmental conditions. A large ensemble of regional climate model simulations has been produced within the ENSEMBLES project framework for both the European and African continent. This work will present recent progress in human and animal disease modelling, based on high resolution climate observations and regional climate simulations. Preliminary results will be given as an illustration, including the impact of climate change upon bluetongue (disease affecting the cattle) over Europe and upon malaria and Rift Valley Fever over Africa. Malaria scenarios based on RCM ensemble simulations have been produced for West Africa. These simulations have been carried out using the Liverpool Malaria Model. Future projections highlight that the malaria incidence decreases at the northern edge of the Sahel and that the epidemic belt is shifted southward in autumn. This could lead to significant public health problems in the future as the demography is expected to dramatically rise over Africa for the 21st century.

  14. Introducing Vectors.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Roche, John

    1997-01-01

    Suggests an approach to teaching vectors that promotes active learning through challenging questions addressed to the class, as opposed to subtle explanations. Promotes introducing vector graphics with concrete examples, beginning with an explanation of the displacement vector. Also discusses artificial vectors, vector algebra, and unit vectors.…

  15. Changes in vector species composition and current vector biology and behaviour will favour malaria elimination in Santa Isabel Province, Solomon Islands

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background In 2009, Santa Isabel Province in the Solomon Islands embarked on a malaria elimination programme. However, very little is known in the Province about the anopheline fauna, which species are vectors, their bionomics and how they may respond to intensified intervention measures. The purpose of this study was to provide baseline data on the malaria vectors and to ascertain the possibility of successfully eliminating malaria using the existing conventional vector control measures, such as indoor residual spraying (IRS) and long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLIN). Methods Entomological surveys were undertaken during October 2009. To determine species composition and distribution larval surveys were conducted across on the whole island. For malaria transmission studies, adult anophelines were sampled using human landing catches from two villages - one coastal and one inland. Results Five Anopheles species were found on Santa Isabel: Anopheles farauti, Anopheles hinesorum, Anopheles lungae, Anopheles solomonis, and Anopheles nataliae. Anopheles hinesorum was the most widespread species. Anopheles farauti was abundant, but found only on the coast. Anopheles punctulatus and Anopheles koliensis were not found. Anopheles farauti was the only species found biting in the coastal village, it was incriminated as a vector in this study; it fed early in the night but equally so indoors and outdoors, and had a low survival rate. Anopheles solomonis was the main species biting humans in the inland village, it was extremely exophagic, with low survival rates, and readily fed on pigs. Conclusion The disappearance of the two major vectors, An. punctulatus and An. koliensis, from Santa Isabel and the predominance of An. hinesorum, a non-vector species may facilitate malaria elimination measures. Anopheles farauti was identified as the main coastal vector with An. solomonis as a possible inland vector. The behaviour of An. solomonis is novel as it has not been previously found

  16. Climate, environmental and socio-economic change: weighing up the balance in vector-borne disease transmission.

    PubMed

    Parham, Paul E; Waldock, Joanna; Christophides, George K; Hemming, Deborah; Agusto, Folashade; Evans, Katherine J; Fefferman, Nina; Gaff, Holly; Gumel, Abba; LaDeau, Shannon; Lenhart, Suzanne; Mickens, Ronald E; Naumova, Elena N; Ostfeld, Richard S; Ready, Paul D; Thomas, Matthew B; Velasco-Hernandez, Jorge; Michael, Edwin

    2015-04-01

    Arguably one of the most important effects of climate change is the potential impact on human health. While this is likely to take many forms, the implications for future transmission of vector-borne diseases (VBDs), given their ongoing contribution to global disease burden, are both extremely important and highly uncertain. In part, this is owing not only to data limitations and methodological challenges when integrating climate-driven VBD models and climate change projections, but also, perhaps most crucially, to the multitude of epidemiological, ecological and socio-economic factors that drive VBD transmission, and this complexity has generated considerable debate over the past 10-15 years. In this review, we seek to elucidate current knowledge around this topic, identify key themes and uncertainties, evaluate ongoing challenges and open research questions and, crucially, offer some solutions for the field. Although many of these challenges are ubiquitous across multiple VBDs, more specific issues also arise in different vector-pathogen systems. PMID:25688012

  17. Assessment of future scenarios for wind erosion sensitivity changes based on ALADIN and REMO regional climate model simulation data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mezősi, Gábor; Blanka, Viktória; Bata, Teodóra; Ladányi, Zsuzsanna; Kemény, Gábor; Meyer, Burghard C.

    2016-07-01

    The changes in rate and pattern of wind erosion sensitivity due to climate change were investigated for 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 compared to the reference period (1961-1990) in Hungary. The sensitivities of the main influencing factors (soil texture, vegetation cover and climate factor) were evaluated by fuzzy method and a combined wind erosion sensitivity map was compiled. The climate factor, as the driving factor of the changes, was assessed based on observed data for the reference period, while REMO and ALADIN regional climate model simulation data for the future periods. The changes in wind erosion sensitivity were evaluated on potentially affected agricultural land use types, and hot spot areas were allocated. Based on the results, 5-6% of the total agricultural areas were high sensitive areas in the reference period. In the 21st century slight or moderate changes of wind erosion sensitivity can be expected, and mostly `pastures', `complex cultivation patterns', and `land principally occupied by agriculture with significant areas of natural vegetation' are affected. The applied combination of multi-indicator approach and fuzzy analysis provides novelty in the field of land sensitivity assessment. The method is suitable for regional scale analysis of wind erosion sensitivity changes and supports regional planning by allocating priority areas where changes in agro-technics or land use have to be considered.

  18. Numerical modeling on air quality in an urban environment with changes of the aspect ratio and wind direction.

    PubMed

    Yassin, Mohamed F

    2013-06-01

    Due to heavy traffic emissions within an urban environment, air quality during the last decade becomes worse year by year and hazard to public health. In the present work, numerical modeling of flow and dispersion of gaseous emissions from vehicle exhaust in a street canyon were investigated under changes of the aspect ratio and wind direction. The three-dimensional flow and dispersion of gaseous pollutants were modeled using a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model which was numerically solved using Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations. The diffusion flow field in the atmospheric boundary layer within the street canyon was studied for different aspect ratios (W/H=1/2, 3/4, and 1) and wind directions (θ=90°, 112.5°, 135°, and 157.5°). The numerical models were validated against wind tunnel results to optimize the turbulence model. The numerical results agreed well with the wind tunnel results. The simulation demonstrated that the minimum concentration at the human respiration height within the street canyon was on the windward side for aspect ratios W/H=1/2 and 1 and wind directions θ=112.5°, 135°, and 157.5°. The pollutant concentration level decreases as the wind direction and aspect ratio increase. The wind velocity and turbulence intensity increase as the aspect ratio and wind direction increase.

  19. Response of Saturn's Current Sheet Structure to Changes in the Solar Wind Dynamic Pressure and IMF

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hansen, K. C.; Jia, X.; Gombosi, T. I.

    2010-12-01

    Using our global MHD model of Saturn’s magnetosphere, we investigate the location, shape and motion of Saturn’s current sheet under a variety of situations. Our global MHD model self consistently treats the entire magnetosphere and includes magnetospheric plasma sources from a major disk-like source from Enceladus and the rings and a secondary toroidal plasma source from Titan. The model produces solutions which are not constrained to be symmetric therefore the results are quite useful in trying to extend previous models that have been generated using Cassini data. Because we can carefully control the inputs to our MHD model, we do not have to worry about separating variations due to local time, varying upstream conditions, spacecraft motion or changes in the mass loading rate that often make interpreting the data complicated. We will present results for both steady state, as well as time varying solar wind conditions. Simulations with constant solar wind conditions allow us to study the effect that upsteam dynamic pressure has on both the shape and size of the current sheet. In addition, we will present results from simulations that include sudden changes in the solar wind dynamics pressure as well as the IMF direction. These simulations will allow us to study the current sheet response and to look for features such as current sheet flapping. Our previous studies have shown that the current sheet in our model does in fact reproduce the “bowl-like” behavior expect at most local times. However, at dusk, the current sheet is often quite warped. We will examine the cause of this warping and under what conditions it occurs.

  20. [Changes in vectors of endogenously generated ion currents in light-induced germination of turions of Spirodela polyrrhiza].

    PubMed

    Sokolovskiĭ, S G; Appenroth, K J

    2002-01-01

    Nondormant turions of Spirodela polyrhiza (L.) Schleiden were utilized to investigate endogenous ion currents in light-induced germination and early growing processes of higher plants. A small outward current was detected at the ventral side of the turions near the pocket containing the most developed sprout primordium. After a light pulse, the direction of the endogenous current changed from outward to inward. These ion currents are most likely conditioned by unspecific diffusion of cations (probably H+) inside the cell. Three-day-old sprouts of Spirodela showed the highest inward current near the sprout base which decreases toward its edge. Newly formed sprouts demonstrated a strong gravity effect (bending), which was preceded by a lowering of the Z-component of vectors close to the sprout base after a change of the turion fixation. PMID:12298209

  1. Magnetopause Boundary Standoff Position Changes and Its Time-Dependent Response to Solar Wind Conditions: Models and Observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Collado-Vega, Y. M.; Sibeck, D. G.; Rastaetter, L.

    2015-12-01

    The Earth's magnetopause is the boundary that separates the solar wind and the Earth's magnetosphere. Its location as a function of solar wind conditions has been estimated via theory, simulation, and empirical models. This presentation compares magnetopause standoff locations determined by all these methods. We use the Run-On-Request capabilities available from the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, specifically the BATS-R-US, OpenGGCM, LFM and GUMICS global physics-based MHD models. The simulated magnetopause standoff positions and response time to the solar wind changes will then be compared with the results obtained using empirical models (e.g. Shue et al. 1998), and to individual THEMIS, Cluster and the Geotail magnetopause crossing observations. We also inspect times of extreme solar wind conditions when magnetopause crossings have been observed by the GOES satellites. Rigorous analysis/comparison of observations with models is critical in determining the performance of the models used to capture magnetospheric dynamics. We will also identify which types of solar wind conditions lead to significant differences between the models. Preliminary results show that there can be significant discrepancies between magnetopause locations predicted by different global MHD models. The discrepancies are seen, for example, during increases in solar wind dynamic pressure and sharp changes in the IMF Bz component. Preliminary results also indicate that during nominal background solar wind conditions models do agree with the observed magnetopause locations.

  2. Wind Tunnel Test of an RPV with Shape-Change Control Effector and Sensor Arrays

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Raney, David L.; Cabell, Randolph H.; Sloan, Adam R.; Barnwell, William G.; Lion, S. Todd; Hautamaki, Bret A.

    2004-01-01

    A variety of novel control effector concepts have recently emerged that may enable new approaches to flight control. In particular, the potential exists to shift the composition of the typical aircraft control effector suite from a small number of high authority, specialized devices (rudder, aileron, elevator, flaps), toward larger numbers of smaller, less specialized, distributed device arrays. The concept envisions effector and sensor networks composed of relatively small high-bandwidth devices able to simultaneously perform a variety of control functions using feedback from disparate data sources. To investigate this concept, a remotely piloted flight vehicle has been equipped with an array of 24 trailing edge shape-change effectors and associated pressure measurements. The vehicle, called the Multifunctional Effector and Sensor Array (MESA) testbed, was recently tested in NASA Langley's 12-ft Low Speed wind tunnel to characterize its stability properties, control authorities, and distributed pressure sensitivities for use in a dynamic simulation prior to flight testing. Another objective was to implement and evaluate a scheme for actively controlling the spanwise pressure distribution using the shape-change array. This report describes the MESA testbed, design of the pressure distribution controller, and results of the wind tunnel test.

  3. Short communication on regional climate change scenarios and their possible use for impact studies on vector-borne diseases.

    PubMed

    Jacob, Daniela

    2008-12-01

    Atmospheric observations demonstrate that, during the last decades, the climate has changed. As reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2001, 2007), a mean increase of temperature by 0.09 K per decade was observed globally from 1951 to 1989. Up to now, 2008, this trend has continued. Europe experienced an extraordinary heat wave in summer 2003, with daily mean temperatures being about 10 degrees warmer than the long-term mean. The increase of temperature varies depending on the region and season. It seems to be accompanied by changes in several hydro-meteorological quantities, like number and duration of heat waves, frost periods, storminess, or precipitation. In some regions of Germany, for example, winter precipitation has increased by more than 30% within the last four decades. In addition, very intense precipitation was observed in summer 2002 in parts of the Elbe drainage basin, which faced a severe flooding. The quantification of these changes and their possible impacts on health is a very important topic, for which regional climate change scenarios provide useful information. The analyses of possible climate change focusing on hydro-meteorological quantities, which have a major influence on vectors and rodent reservoirs will be an ongoing challenge for future research.

  4. Structural damage localisation for a frame structure from changes in curvature of approximate entropy feature vectors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    An, Y. H.; Ou, J. P.

    2014-01-01

    At present, accurate vibration-based damage localisation cannot be achieved very well in mechanical and civil engineering fields due to high noise in the measurements and low accuracy in finite element (FE) model of the measured structures. To address these issues, a method for damage detection is proposed in this work, i.e. the mean curvature difference method of approximate entropy (ApEn) feature vectors, based on the ApEn theory and curvature method. Simulation results of both single and multiple damage cases under pulse excitation indicate that the proposed method can be utilised to determine whether the damage is present in the structure or not and to locate the damage accurately, and the method exhibits strong anti-noise ability: it is feasible for damage with 5% stiffness reduction even if the noise level is up to 25%. Moreover, the proposed method does not require a structural FE model. Experimental results of a six-storey shear frame model also validated the proposed method. All of these lay a good foundation for its application in shear frame structures.

  5. Assessing Southern Hemisphere Westerly Wind Changes during the Last Glacial Maximum using Paleo-data Synthesis (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kohfeld, K. E.; Graham, R. M.; De Boer, A. M.; Wolff, E. W.; Sime, L. C.; Le Quere, C.; Bopp, L.

    2013-12-01

    Changes in the strength and position of Southern Hemisphere westerly winds during the last glacial cycle have been invoked to explain glacial-interglacial climate fluctuations. However, neither paleo models nor paleodata agree on the magnitude, or even the sign, of the change in wind strength and latitude during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), compared to the recent past. This study synthesizes paleo-environmental data that have been used to infer changes in winds during the LGM compared with the late Holocene. These compilations include changes in terrestrial moisture, dust deposition, and ocean productivity, along with summaries of previously published information on sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and ocean dynamics in the Southern Hemisphere. Our compilations of terrestrial moisture from 94 sites and dust deposition from 87 sites show generally drier conditions for the LGM between 0 and 40S, with wetter conditions along the west coasts and drying along the east coasts of continents. LGM dust deposition rates ranged from 2 to 4.5 times higher over the Southern Ocean and about 13 times higher over the Antarctic continent. For the oceans, reconstructed changes in SSTs show maximum cooling (>4 °C) in the modern-day Subantarctic Zone, coincident with a region of enhanced export production during the LGM compared with today. We find that any hypothesis of LGM wind and climate change needs to provide a plausible explanation for increased moisture on the west coast of continents, cooler temperatures and higher productivity in the Subantarctic Zone, and reductions in Agulhas leakage around southern Africa. Our comparison suggests that an overall strengthening, an equatorward displacement, or no change at all in winds could all be interpreted as consistent with observations. If a single cause related to the southern westerlies is sought for all the evidence presented, then an equatorward displacement or strengthening of the winds would be consistent with the largest

  6. Potential impacts of climate change on the ecology of dengue and its mosquito vector the Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Erickson, R. A.; Hayhoe, K.; Presley, S. M.; Allen, L. J. S.; Long, K. R.; Cox, S. B.

    2012-09-01

    Shifts in temperature and precipitation patterns caused by global climate change may have profound impacts on the ecology of certain infectious diseases. We examine the potential impacts of climate change on the transmission and maintenance dynamics of dengue, a resurging mosquito-vectored infectious disease. In particular, we project changes in dengue season length for three cities: Atlanta, GA; Chicago, IL and Lubbock, TX. These cities are located on the edges of the range of the Asian tiger mosquito within the United States of America and were chosen as test cases. We use a disease model that explicitly incorporates mosquito population dynamics and high-resolution climate projections. Based on projected changes under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1fi (higher) and B1 (lower) emission scenarios as simulated by four global climate models, we found that the projected warming shortened mosquito lifespan, which in turn decreased the potential dengue season. These results illustrate the difficulty in predicting how climate change may alter complex systems.

  7. THE ABRUPT CHANGES IN THE PHOTOSPHERIC MAGNETIC AND LORENTZ FORCE VECTORS DURING SIX MAJOR NEUTRAL-LINE FLARES

    SciTech Connect

    Petrie, G. J. D.

    2012-11-01

    We analyze the spatial and temporal variations of the abrupt photospheric magnetic changes associated with six major flares using 12 minute, 0.''5 pixel{sup -1} vector magnetograms from NASA's Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager instrument on the Solar Dynamics Observatory satellite. The six major flares occurred near the main magnetic neutral lines of four active regions, NOAA 11158, 11166, 11283, and 11429. During all six flares the neutral-line field vectors became stronger and more horizontal, in each case almost entirely due to strengthening of the horizontal field components parallel to the neutral line. In all six cases the neutral-line pre-flare fields were more vertical than the reference potential fields, and collapsed abruptly and permanently closer to potential-field tilt angles during every flare, implying that the relaxation of magnetic stress associated with non-potential tilt angles plays a major role during major flares. The shear angle with respect to the reference potential field did not show such a pattern, demonstrating that flare processes do not generally relieve magnetic stresses associated with photospheric magnetic shear. The horizontal fields became significantly and permanently more aligned with the neutral line during the four largest flares, suggesting that the collapsing field is on average more aligned with the neutral line than the pre-flare neutral-line field. The vertical Lorentz force had a large, abrupt, permanent downward change during each of the flares, consistent with loop collapse. The horizontal Lorentz force changes acted mostly parallel to the neutral line in opposite directions on each side, a signature of the fields contracting during the flare, pulling the two sides of the neutral line toward each other. The greater effect of the flares on field tilt than on shear may be explained by photospheric line-tying.

  8. Wind Characterization for the Assessment of Collision Risk During Flight Level Changes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Carreno, Victor; Chartrand, Ryan

    2009-01-01

    A model of vertical wind gradient is presented based on National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) wind data. The objective is to have an accurate representation of wind to be used in Collision Risk Models (CRM) of aircraft procedures. Depending on how an aircraft procedure is defined, wind and the different characteristics of the wind will have a more severe or less severe impact on distances between aircraft. For the In-Trail Procedure, the non-linearity of the vertical wind gradient has the greatest impact on longitudinal distance. The analysis in this paper extracts standard deviation, mean, maximum, and linearity characteristics from the NOAA data.

  9. Climate Change and Vector-borne Diseases: An Economic Impact Analysis of Malaria in Africa

    PubMed Central

    Egbendewe-Mondzozo, Aklesso; Musumba, Mark; McCarl, Bruce A.; Wu, Ximing

    2011-01-01

    A semi-parametric econometric model is used to study the relationship between malaria cases and climatic factors in 25 African countries. Results show that a marginal change in temperature and precipitation levels would lead to a significant change in the number of malaria cases for most countries by the end of the century. Consistent with the existing biophysical malaria model results, the projected effects of climate change are mixed. Our model projects that some countries will see an increase in malaria cases but others will see a decrease. We estimate projected malaria inpatient and outpatient treatment costs as a proportion of annual 2000 health expenditures per 1,000 people. We found that even under minimal climate change scenario, some countries may see their inpatient treatment cost of malaria increase more than 20%. PMID:21556186

  10. Wind power: Addressing wildlife impacts, assessing effects on tourism, and examining the link between climate change perceptions and support

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lilley, Meredith Blaydes

    As the world's most rapidly growing source of energy, wind power has vast potential for mitigating climate change and advancing global environmental sustainability. Yet, the challenges facing wind energy remain both complex and substantial. Two such challenges are: 1) wildlife impacts; and 2) perceived negative effects on tourism. This dissertation examines these challenges in a multi-paper format, and also investigates the role that climate change perceptions play in garnering public support for wind power. The first paper assesses optimal approaches for addressing wind power's wildlife impacts. Comparative analysis reveals that avian mortality from turbines ranks far behind avian mortality from a number of other anthropogenic sources. Additionally, although bats have recently emerged as more vulnerable to wind turbines than birds, they are generally less federally protected. The Migratory Bird Treaty Act (MBTA) protects over 800 bird species, regardless of their threatened or endangered status. Moreover, it criminalizes the incidental take of birds without a permit and simultaneously grants no permits for such incidental take, thereby creating a legal conundrum for the wind industry. An examination of the legislative and case history of the MBTA, however, reveals that wind operators are not likely to be prosecuted for incidental take if they cooperate with the U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service (FWS) and take reasonable steps to reduce siting and operational impacts. Furthermore, this study's analysis reveals modest wildlife impacts from wind power, in comparison with numerous other energy sources. Scientific-research, legal, and policy recommendations are provided to update the present legal and regulatory regime under the MBTA and to minimize avian and bat impacts. For instance, FWS should: establish comprehensive federal guidelines for wind facility siting, permitting, monitoring, and mitigation; and promulgate regulations under the MBTA for the issuance of

  11. Impact of WRF Physics and Grid Resolution on Low-level Wind Prediction: Towards the Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Future Wind Power

    SciTech Connect

    Chin, H S; Glascoe, L; Lundquist, J; Wharton, S

    2010-02-24

    The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model is used in short-range simulations to explore the sensitivity of model physics and horizontal grid resolution. We choose five events with the clear-sky conditions to study the impact of different planetary boundary layer (PBL), surface and soil-layer physics on low-level wind forecast for two wind farms; one in California (CA) and the other in Texas (TX). Short-range simulations are validated with field measurements. Results indicate that the forecast error of the CA case decreases with increasing grid resolution due to the improved representation of valley winds. Besides, the model physics configuration has a significant impact on the forecast error at this location. In contrast, the forecast error of the TX case exhibits little dependence on grid resolution and is relatively independent of physics configuration. Therefore, the occurrence frequency of lowest root mean square errors (RMSEs) at this location is used to determine an optimal model configuration for subsequent decade-scale regional climate model (RCM) simulations. In this study, we perform two sets of 20-year RCM simulations using the data from the NCAR Global Climate Model (GCM) simulations; one set models the present climate and the other simulates the future climate. These RCM simulations will be used to assess the impact of climate change on future wind energy.

  12. Remote sensing of land use/cover changes and its effect on wind erosion potential in southern Iran.

    PubMed

    Rezaei, Mahrooz; Sameni, Abdolmajid; Fallah Shamsi, Seyed Rashid; Bartholomeus, Harm

    2016-01-01

    Wind erosion is a complex process influenced by different factors. Most of these factors are stable over time, but land use/cover and land management practices are changing gradually. Therefore, this research investigates the impact of changing land use/cover and land management on wind erosion potential in southern Iran. We used remote sensing data (Landsat ETM+ and Landsat 8 imagery of 2004 and 2013) for land use/cover mapping and employed the Iran Research Institute of Forest and Rangeland (IRIFR) method to estimate changes in wind erosion potential. For an optimal mapping, the performance of different classification algorithms and input layers was tested. The amount of changes in wind erosion and land use/cover were quantified using cross-tabulation between the two years. To discriminate land use/cover related to wind erosion, the best results were obtained by combining the original spectral bands with synthetic bands and using Maximum Likelihood classification algorithm (Kappa Coefficient of 0.8 and 0.9 for Landsat ETM+ and Landsat 8, respectively). The IRIFR modelling results indicate that the wind erosion potential has increased over the last decade. The areas with a very high sediment yield potential have increased, whereas the areas with a low, medium, and high sediment yield potential decreased. The area with a very low sediment yield potential have remained constant. When comparing the change in erosion potential with land use/cover change, it is evident that soil erosion potential has increased mostly in accordance with the increase of the area of agricultural practices. The conversion of rangeland to agricultural land was a major land-use change which lead to more agricultural practices and associated soil loss. Moreover, results indicate an increase in sandification in the study area which is also a clear evidence of increasing in soil erosion.

  13. Remote sensing of land use/cover changes and its effect on wind erosion potential in southern Iran.

    PubMed

    Rezaei, Mahrooz; Sameni, Abdolmajid; Fallah Shamsi, Seyed Rashid; Bartholomeus, Harm

    2016-01-01

    Wind erosion is a complex process influenced by different factors. Most of these factors are stable over time, but land use/cover and land management practices are changing gradually. Therefore, this research investigates the impact of changing land use/cover and land management on wind erosion potential in southern Iran. We used remote sensing data (Landsat ETM+ and Landsat 8 imagery of 2004 and 2013) for land use/cover mapping and employed the Iran Research Institute of Forest and Rangeland (IRIFR) method to estimate changes in wind erosion potential. For an optimal mapping, the performance of different classification algorithms and input layers was tested. The amount of changes in wind erosion and land use/cover were quantified using cross-tabulation between the two years. To discriminate land use/cover related to wind erosion, the best results were obtained by combining the original spectral bands with synthetic bands and using Maximum Likelihood classification algorithm (Kappa Coefficient of 0.8 and 0.9 for Landsat ETM+ and Landsat 8, respectively). The IRIFR modelling results indicate that the wind erosion potential has increased over the last decade. The areas with a very high sediment yield potential have increased, whereas the areas with a low, medium, and high sediment yield potential decreased. The area with a very low sediment yield potential have remained constant. When comparing the change in erosion potential with land use/cover change, it is evident that soil erosion potential has increased mostly in accordance with the increase of the area of agricultural practices. The conversion of rangeland to agricultural land was a major land-use change which lead to more agricultural practices and associated soil loss. Moreover, results indicate an increase in sandification in the study area which is also a clear evidence of increasing in soil erosion. PMID:27547511

  14. Remote sensing of land use/cover changes and its effect on wind erosion potential in southern Iran

    PubMed Central

    Sameni, Abdolmajid; Fallah Shamsi, Seyed Rashid; Bartholomeus, Harm

    2016-01-01

    Wind erosion is a complex process influenced by different factors. Most of these factors are stable over time, but land use/cover and land management practices are changing gradually. Therefore, this research investigates the impact of changing land use/cover and land management on wind erosion potential in southern Iran. We used remote sensing data (Landsat ETM+ and Landsat 8 imagery of 2004 and 2013) for land use/cover mapping and employed the Iran Research Institute of Forest and Rangeland (IRIFR) method to estimate changes in wind erosion potential. For an optimal mapping, the performance of different classification algorithms and input layers was tested. The amount of changes in wind erosion and land use/cover were quantified using cross-tabulation between the two years. To discriminate land use/cover related to wind erosion, the best results were obtained by combining the original spectral bands with synthetic bands and using Maximum Likelihood classification algorithm (Kappa Coefficient of 0.8 and 0.9 for Landsat ETM+ and Landsat 8, respectively). The IRIFR modelling results indicate that the wind erosion potential has increased over the last decade. The areas with a very high sediment yield potential have increased, whereas the areas with a low, medium, and high sediment yield potential decreased. The area with a very low sediment yield potential have remained constant. When comparing the change in erosion potential with land use/cover change, it is evident that soil erosion potential has increased mostly in accordance with the increase of the area of agricultural practices. The conversion of rangeland to agricultural land was a major land-use change which lead to more agricultural practices and associated soil loss. Moreover, results indicate an increase in sandification in the study area which is also a clear evidence of increasing in soil erosion. PMID:27547511

  15. The National Assessment of Shoreline Change: A GIS Compilation of Vector Shorelines and Associated Shoreline Change Data for the U.S. Gulf of Mexico

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Miller, Tara L.; Morton, Robert A.; Sallenger, Asbury H.; Moore, Laura J.

    2004-01-01

    Introduction The Coastal and Marine Geology Program of the U.S. Geological Survey has generated a comprehensive database of digital vector shorelines and shoreline change rates for the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. These data, which are presented herein, were compiled as part of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Assessment of Shoreline Change Project. Beach erosion is a chronic problem along most open-ocean shores of the United States. As coastal populations continue to grow and community infrastructures are threatened by erosion, there is increased demand for accurate information including rates and trends of shoreline migration. There is also a critical need for shoreline change data that is consistent from one coastal region to another. One purpose of this work is to develop standard repeatable methods for mapping and analyzing shoreline movement so that periodic updates regarding coastal erosion and land loss can be made nationally that are systematic and internally consistent. This data compilation for open-ocean, sandy shorelines of the Gulf of Mexico is the first in a series that will eventually include the Atlantic Coast, Pacific Coast, and parts of Hawaii and Alaska. Short- and long-term shoreline change evaluations are based on merging three historical shorelines with a modern shoreline derived from lidar (light detection and ranging) topographic surveys. Historical shorelines generally represent the following time periods: 1800s, 1920s-1930s, and 1970s. The most recent shoreline is derived from data collected over the period of 1998-2002. Long-term rates of change are calculated by linear regression using all four shorelines. Short-term rates of change are simple end-point rate calculations using the two most recent shorelines. Please refer to our full report on shoreline change in the Gulf of Mexico, National Assessment of Shoreline Change: Part 1, Historical Shoreline Changes and Associated Coastal Land Loss Along the U.S. Gulf of Mexico (USGS Open File

  16. Population Genetics of Two Key Mosquito Vectors of Rift Valley Fever Virus Reveals New Insights into the Changing Disease Outbreak Patterns in Kenya

    PubMed Central

    Tchouassi, David P.; Bastos, Armanda D. S.; Sole, Catherine L.; Diallo, Mawlouth; Lutomiah, Joel; Mutisya, James; Mulwa, Francis; Borgemeister, Christian; Sang, Rosemary; Torto, Baldwyn

    2014-01-01

    Rift Valley fever (RVF) outbreaks in Kenya have increased in frequency and range to include northeastern Kenya where viruses are increasingly being isolated from known (Aedes mcintoshi) and newly-associated (Ae. ochraceus) vectors. The factors contributing to these changing outbreak patterns are unclear and the population genetic structure of key vectors and/or specific virus-vector associations, in particular, are under-studied. By conducting mitochondrial and nuclear DNA analyses on >220 Kenyan specimens of Ae. mcintoshi and Ae. ochraceus, we uncovered high levels of vector complexity which may partly explain the disease outbreak pattern. Results indicate that Ae. mcintoshi consists of a species complex with one of the member species being unique to the newly-established RVF outbreak-prone northeastern region of Kenya, whereas Ae. ochraceus is a homogeneous population that appears to be undergoing expansion. Characterization of specimens from a RVF-prone site in Senegal, where Ae. ochraceus is a primary vector, revealed direct genetic links between the two Ae. ochraceus populations from both countries. Our data strongly suggest that unlike Ae. mcintoshi, Ae. ochraceus appears to be a relatively recent, single 'introduction' into Kenya. These results, together with increasing isolations from this vector, indicate that Ae. ochraceus will likely be of greater epidemiological importance in future RVF outbreaks in Kenya. Furthermore, the overall vector complexity calls into question the feasibility of mosquito population control approaches reliant on genetic modification. PMID:25474018

  17. Cytoplasmic calcium increases in response to changes in the gravity vector in hypocotyls and petioles of Arabidopsis seedlings.

    PubMed

    Toyota, Masatsugu; Furuichi, Takuya; Tatsumi, Hitoshi; Sokabe, Masahiro

    2008-02-01

    Plants respond to a large variety of environmental signals, including changes in the gravity vector (gravistimulation). In Arabidopsis (Arabidopsis thaliana) seedlings, gravistimulation is known to increase the cytoplasmic free calcium concentration ([Ca(2+)](c)). However, organs responsible for the [Ca(2+)](c) increase and the underlying cellular/molecular mechanisms remain to be solved. In this study, using Arabidopsis seedlings expressing apoaequorin, a Ca(2+)-sensitive luminescent protein in combination with an ultrasensitive photon counting camera, we clarified the organs where [Ca(2+)](c) increases in response to gravistimulation and characterized the physiological and pharmacological properties of the [Ca(2+)](c) increase. When the seedlings were gravistimulated by turning 180 degrees, they showed a transient biphasic [Ca(2+)](c) increase in their hypocotyls and petioles. The second peak of the [Ca(2+)](c) increase depended on the angle but not the speed of rotation, whereas the initial peak showed diametrically opposite characters. This suggests that the second [Ca(2+)](c) increase is specific for changes in the gravity vector. The potential mechanosensitive Ca(2+)-permeable channel (MSCC) inhibitors Gd(3+) and La(3+), the Ca(2+) chelator 1,2-bis(2-aminophenoxy)ethane-N,N,N',N'-tetraacetic acid (BAPTA), and the endomembrane Ca(2+)-permeable channel inhibitor ruthenium red suppressed the second [Ca(2+)](c) increase, suggesting that it arises from Ca(2+) influx via putative MSCCs in the plasma membrane and Ca(2+) release from intracellular Ca(2+) stores. Moreover, the second [Ca(2+)](c) increase was attenuated by actin-disrupting drugs cytochalasin B and latrunculin B but not by microtubule-disrupting drugs oryzalin and nocodazole, implying that actin filaments are partially involved in the hypothetical activation of Ca(2+)-permeable channels. These results suggest that the second [Ca(2+)](c) increase via MSCCs is a gravity response in the hypocotyl and

  18. Risk maps for range expansion of the Lyme disease vector, Ixodes scapularis, in Canada now and with climate change

    PubMed Central

    Ogden, Nicholas H; St-Onge, Laurie; Barker, Ian K; Brazeau, Stéphanie; Bigras-Poulin, Michel; Charron, Dominique F; Francis, Charles M; Heagy, Audrey; Lindsay, L Robbin; Maarouf, Abdel; Michel, Pascal; Milord, François; O'Callaghan, Christopher J; Trudel, Louise; Thompson, R Alex

    2008-01-01

    Background Lyme disease is the commonest vector-borne zoonosis in the temperate world, and an emerging infectious disease in Canada due to expansion of the geographic range of the tick vector Ixodes scapularis. Studies suggest that climate change will accelerate Lyme disease emergence by enhancing climatic suitability for I. scapularis. Risk maps will help to meet the public health challenge of Lyme disease by allowing targeting of surveillance and intervention activities. Results A risk map for possible Lyme endemicity was created using a simple risk algorithm for occurrence of I. scapularis populations. The algorithm was calculated for each census sub-division in central and eastern Canada from interpolated output of a temperature-driven simulation model of I. scapularis populations and an index of tick immigration. The latter was calculated from estimates of tick dispersion distances by migratory birds and recent knowledge of the current geographic range of endemic I. scapularis populations. The index of tick immigration closely predicted passive surveillance data on I. scapularis occurrence, and the risk algorithm was a significant predictor of the occurrence of I. scapularis populations in a prospective field study. Risk maps for I. scapularis occurrence in Canada under future projected climate (in the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s) were produced using temperature output from the Canadian Coupled Global Climate Model 2 with greenhouse gas emission scenario enforcing 'A2' of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Conclusion We have prepared risk maps for the occurrence of I. scapularis in eastern and central Canada under current and future projected climate. Validation of the risk maps provides some confidence that they provide a useful first step in predicting the occurrence of I. scapularis populations, and directing public health objectives in minimizing risk from Lyme disease. Further field studies are needed, however, to continue validation and refinement

  19. Changes in fluxes of heat, H2O, CO2 caused by a large wind farm

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The Crop Wind Energy Experiment (CWEX) provides a platform to investigate the effect of wind turbines and large wind farms on surface fluxes of momentum, heat, moisture and carbon dioxide (CO2). In 2010 and 2011, eddy covariance flux stations were installed between two lines of turbines at the south...

  20. The National Assessment of Shoreline Change:A GIS Compilation of Vector Shorelines and Associated Shoreline Change Data for the Sandy Shorelines of the California Coast

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hapke, Cheryl J.; Reid, David

    2006-01-01

    Introduction The Coastal and Marine Geology Program of the U.S. Geological Survey has generated a comprehensive data clearinghouse of digital vector shorelines and shoreline change rates for the sandy shoreline along the California open coast. These data, which are presented herein, were compiled as part of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Assessment of Shoreline Change Project. Beach erosion is a chronic problem along many open-ocean shores of the United States. As coastal populations continue to grow and community infrastructures are threatened by erosion, there is increased demand for accurate information including rates and trends of shoreline migration. There is also a critical need for shoreline change data that is consistent from one coastal region to another. One purpose of this work is to develop standard, repeatable methods for mapping and analyzing shoreline movement so that periodic, systematic, and internally consistent updates of shorelines and shoreline change rates can be made at a National Scale. This data compilation for open-ocean, sandy shorelines of the California coast is one in a series that already includes the Gulf of Mexico and the Southeast Atlantic Coast (Morton et al., 2004; Morton et al., 2005) and will eventually cover Washington, Oregon, and parts of Hawaii and Alaska. Short- and long-term shoreline change evaluations are determined by comparing the positions of three historical shorelines digitized from maps, with a modern shoreline derived from LIDAR (light detection and ranging) topographic surveys. Historical shorelines generally represent the following time-periods: 1850s-1880s, 1920s-1930s, and late 1940s-1970s. The most recent shoreline is from data collected between 1997 and 2002. Long-term rates of change are calculated by linear regression using all four shorelines. Short-term rates of change are end-point rate calculations using the two most recent shorelines. Please refer to our full report on shoreline change of the

  1. Agents of change on Mars' northern dunes: CO2 ice and wind

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hansen, C. J.; Diniega, S.; Bridges, N.; Byrne, S.; Dundas, C.; McEwen, A.; Portyankina, G.

    2015-05-01

    Both wind and seasonal CO2 ice sculpt the dunes of Mars in today's climate. The High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment (HiRISE) on the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter has returned extensive temporal coverage of changes on the north polar dunes for nearly four Mars years. The processes driving dune morphology changes such as the formation of new alcoves have been investigated. Considerable interannual variability has been observed. Most changes occur in the period of time when HiRISE cannot image: late summer and fall when light levels are too low to see subtle changes on the dunes and the polar hood obscures the surface, and winter when the cap is in polar night. This is consistent with seasonal control but does not allow us to directly differentiate between eolian processes vs. CO2 ice as the driving agent for alcove formation. Circumstantial evidence and observations of analog processes in the southern mid-latitudes however implicates processes associated with frost emplacement and removal.

  2. Solar-wind-driven changes to the ionospheric electric potential lead to changes in tropospheric temperature and geopotential height

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lam, Mai Mai; Chisham, Gareth; Freeman, Mervyn P.

    2015-04-01

    There are a large number of responses, on the day-to-day timescale, of the dynamics of the troposphere to regional changes in the downward current of the global atmospheric electric circuit (GEC). They provide compelling evidence that, via the GEC, the solar wind plays a role in influencing surface weather and climate. We use reanalysis data to estimate the altitude and time lag dependence of one such response - the Mansurov effect. This effect was first observed as a correlation between the duskward component By of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and surface pressure anomalies in Antarctica. Additionally, we have more recently shown that the polar Mansurov effect can affect mid-latitude atmospheric planetary waves, the amplitude of the effect being comparable to typical initial analysis uncertainties in ensemble numerical weather prediction. Here we shed light on the origins of the polar surface effect by examining the correlation between IMF By and geopotential height anomalies throughout the Antarctic troposphere and lower stratosphere. We find that the correlation is highly statistically significant within the troposphere, and not so in the stratosphere. The peak in the correlation occurs at greater time lags at the tropopause (~ 6 - 8 days) and in the mid troposphere (~ 4 days) than in the lower troposphere (~ 1 day). This supports a mechanism involving the action on lower tropospheric clouds of the GEC, modified by variations in the solar wind (through modulations of the spatial variation in ionospheric potential). The increase in time lag with increasing altitude is consistent with the upward propagation by conventional atmospheric processes of the solar wind-induced variability in the lower troposphere. This is in contrast to the downward propagation of atmospheric effects to the lower troposphere from the stratosphere due to solar variability-driven mechanisms involving ultraviolet radiation or energetic particle precipitation. We also find a

  3. National assessment of shoreline change: A GIS compilation of vector shorelines and associated shoreline change data for the sandy shorelines of Kauai, Oahu, and Maui, Hawaii

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Romine, Bradley M.; Fletcher, Charles H.; Genz, Ayesha S.; Barbee, Matthew M.; Dyer, Matthew; Anderson, Tiffany R.; Lim, S. Chyn; Vitousek, Sean; Bochicchio, Christopher; Richmond, Bruce M.

    2012-01-01

    Sandy ocean beaches are a popular recreational destination, and often are surrounded by communities that consist of valuable real estate. Development is increasing despite the fact that coastal infrastructure may be repeatedly subjected to flooding and erosion. As a result, the demand for accurate information regarding past and present shoreline changes is increasing. Working with researchers from the University of Hawaii, investigators with the U.S. Geological Survey's National Assessment of Shoreline Change Project have compiled a comprehensive database of digital vector shorelines and shoreline-change rates for the islands of Kauai, Oahu, and Maui, Hawaii. No widely accepted standard for analyzing shoreline change currently exists. Current measurement and rate-calculation methods vary from study to study, precluding the combination of study results into statewide or regional assessments. The impetus behind the National Assessment was to develop a standardized method for measuring changes in shoreline position that is consistent from coast to coast. The goal was to facilitate the process of periodically and systematically updating the measurements in an internally consistent manner. A detailed report on shoreline change for Kauai, Maui, and Oahu that contains a discussion of the data presented here is available and cited in the Geospatial Data section of this report.

  4. Massachusetts shoreline change project: a GIS compilation of vector shorelines and associated shoreline change data for the 2013 update

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Smith, Theresa L.; Himmelstoss, Emily A.; Thieler, E. Robert

    2013-01-01

    Identifying the rates and trends associated with the position of the shoreline through time presents vital information on potential impacts these changes may have on coastal populations and infrastructure, and supports informed coastal management decisions. This report publishes the historical shoreline data used to assess the scale and timing of erosion and accretion along the Massachusetts coast from New Hampshire to Rhode Island including all of Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyard, Nantucket and the Elizabeth Islands. This data is an update to the Massachusetts Office of Coastal Zone Management Shoreline Change Project. Shoreline positions from the past 164 years (1845 to 2009) were used to compute the shoreline change rates. These data include a combined length of 1,804 kilometers of new shoreline data derived from color orthophoto imagery collected in 2008 and 2009, and topographic lidar collected in 2007. These new shorelines have been added to previously published historic shoreline data from the Massachusetts Office of Coastal Zone Management and the U.S. Geological Survey. A detailed report containing a discussion of the shoreline change data presented here and a summary of the resulting rates is available and cited at the end of the Introduction section of this report.

  5. Efficacy of child abuse and neglect prevention messages in the Florida Winds of Change campaign.

    PubMed

    Evans, W Douglas; Falconer, Mary Kay; Khan, Munziba; Ferris, Christie

    2012-01-01

    Public awareness campaigns have been included in universal, communitywide, and programmatic approaches aimed at preventing child abuse and neglect. More evaluation of campaign effects is needed to identify their place on the continuum of evidence-based programs. This article reports on an efficacy study of the Florida Winds of Change campaign using a randomized experimental design. Investigators conducted an online survey of a web-based panel of Florida residents with children 18 years of age or younger living in the home. Six outcomes were measured at baseline and a 30-day follow-up. Three outcomes referred to knowledge of child development, child disciplinary techniques, and community resources for parents. Prevention attitudes or beliefs, motivation, and action were also assessed. Respondents were exposed to three public service announcements and a selection of parent resource material. Logistic regression models revealed that exposure to campaign messages was associated with significant increases in all but one of the campaign outcomes.

  6. Efficacy of child abuse and neglect prevention messages in the Florida Winds of Change campaign.

    PubMed

    Evans, W Douglas; Falconer, Mary Kay; Khan, Munziba; Ferris, Christie

    2012-01-01

    Public awareness campaigns have been included in universal, communitywide, and programmatic approaches aimed at preventing child abuse and neglect. More evaluation of campaign effects is needed to identify their place on the continuum of evidence-based programs. This article reports on an efficacy study of the Florida Winds of Change campaign using a randomized experimental design. Investigators conducted an online survey of a web-based panel of Florida residents with children 18 years of age or younger living in the home. Six outcomes were measured at baseline and a 30-day follow-up. Three outcomes referred to knowledge of child development, child disciplinary techniques, and community resources for parents. Prevention attitudes or beliefs, motivation, and action were also assessed. Respondents were exposed to three public service announcements and a selection of parent resource material. Logistic regression models revealed that exposure to campaign messages was associated with significant increases in all but one of the campaign outcomes. PMID:22206348

  7. The trophic responses of two different rodent-vector-plague systems to climate change.

    PubMed

    Xu, Lei; Schmid, Boris V; Liu, Jun; Si, Xiaoyan; Stenseth, Nils Chr; Zhang, Zhibin

    2015-02-01

    Plague, the causative agent of three devastating pandemics in history, is currently a re-emerging disease, probably due to climate change and other anthropogenic changes. Without understanding the response of plague systems to anthropogenic or climate changes in their trophic web, it is unfeasible to effectively predict years with high risks of plague outbreak, hampering our ability for effective prevention and control of the disease. Here, by using surveillance data, we apply structural equation modelling to reveal the drivers of plague prevalence in two very different rodent systems: those of the solitary Daurian ground squirrel and the social Mongolian gerbil. We show that plague prevalence in the Daurian ground squirrel is not detectably related to its trophic web, and that therefore surveillance efforts should focus on detecting plague directly in this ecosystem. On the other hand, plague in the Mongolian gerbil is strongly embedded in a complex, yet understandable trophic web of climate, vegetation, and rodent and flea densities, making the ecosystem suitable for more sophisticated low-cost surveillance practices, such as remote sensing. As for the trophic webs of the two rodent species, we find that increased vegetation is positively associated with higher temperatures and precipitation for both ecosystems. We furthermore find a positive association between vegetation and ground squirrel density, yet a negative association between vegetation and gerbil density. Our study thus shows how past surveillance records can be used to design and improve existing plague prevention and control measures, by tailoring them to individual plague foci. Such measures are indeed highly needed under present conditions with prevailing climate change.

  8. Dynamic changes of spatial functional network connectivity in healthy individuals and schizophrenia patients using independent vector analysis

    PubMed Central

    Ma, Sai; Calhoun, Vince D.; Phlypo, Ronald; Adalı, Tülay

    2016-01-01

    Recent work on both task-induced and resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data suggests that functional connectivity may fluctuate, rather than being stationary during an entire scan. Most dynamic studies are based on second-order statistics between fMRI time series or time courses derived from blind source separation, e.g., independent component analysis (ICA), to investigate changes of temporal interactions among brain regions. However, fluctuations related to spatial components over time are of interest as well. In this paper, we examine higher-order statistical dependence between pairs of spatial components, which we define as spatial functional network connectivity (sFNC), and changes of sFNC across a resting-state scan. We extract time-varying components from healthy controls and patients with schizophrenia to represent brain networks using independent vector analysis (IVA), which is an extension of ICA to multiple data sets and enables one to capture spatial variations. Based on mutual information among IVA components, we perform statistical analysis and Markov modeling to quantify the changes in spatial connectivity. Our experimental results suggest significantly more fluctuations in patient group and show that patients with schizophrenia have more variable patterns of spatial concordance primarily between frontoparietal, cerebellum and temporal lobe regions. This study extends upon earlier studies showing temporal connectivity differences in similar areas on average by providing evidence that the dynamic spatial interplay between these regions is also impacted by schizophrenia. PMID:24418507

  9. Climate and Population Health Vulnerabilities to Vector-Borne Diseases: Increasing Resilience Under Climate Change Conditions in Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ceccato, P.; McDonald, K. C.; Podest, E.; De La Torre Juarez, M.; Kruczkiewicz, A.; Lessel, J.; Jensen, K.; Thomson, M. C.

    2014-12-01

    The International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), the City University of New York (CUNY) and NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in collaboration with NASA SERVIR are developing tools to monitor climate variables (precipitation, temperature, vegetation, water bodies, inundation) that help projects in Africa to increase resilience to climate change for vector-borne diseases (i.e. malaria, trypanosomiasis, leishmaniasis, and schistosomiasis). Through the development of new products to monitor precipitation, water bodies and inundation, IRI, CUNY and JPL provide tools and capacity building to research communities, ministries of health and World Health Organization in Africa to: 1) Develop research teams' ability to appropriately use climate data as part of their research 2) Enable research teams and ministries to integrate climate information into social and economic drivers of vulnerability and opportunities for adaptation to climate change 3) Inform better policies and programs for climate change adaptation. This oral presentation will demonstrate how IRI, CUNY, and JPL developed new products, tools and capacity building to achieve the three objectives mentioned above.

  10. Climate and Health Vulnerability to Vector-Borne Diseases: Increasing Resilience under Climate Change Conditions in Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ceccato, P.

    2015-12-01

    The International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), the City University of New York (CUNY) and NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in collaboration with NASA SERVIR are developing tools to monitor climate variables (precipitation, temperature, vegetation, water bodies, inundation) that help projects in Africa to increase resilience to climate change for vector-borne diseases ( malaria, trypanosomiasis, leishmaniasis, and schistosomiasis). Through the development of new products to monitor precipitation, water bodies and inundation, IRI, CUNY and JPL provide tools and capacity building to research communities; ministries of health; the WMO Global Framework for Climate and Services; and World Health Organization in Africa to: 1) Develop research teams' ability to appropriately use climate data as part of their research 2) Enable research teams and ministries to integrate climate information into social and economic drivers of vulnerability and opportunities for adaptation to climate change 3) Inform better policies and programs for climate change adaptation. This oral presentation will demonstrate how IRI, CUNY, and JPL developed new products, tools and capacity building to achieve the three objectives mentioned above with examples in South Africa, Zimbabwe, Tanzania and Malawi.

  11. Acute effects of changes to the gravitational vector on the eye.

    PubMed

    Anderson, Allison P; Swan, Jacob G; Phillips, Scott D; Knaus, Darin A; Kattamis, Nicholas T; Toutain-Kidd, Christine M; Zegans, Michael E; Fellows, Abigail M; Buckey, Jay C

    2016-04-15

    Intraocular pressure (IOP) initially increases when an individual enters microgravity compared with baseline values when an individual is in a seated position. This has been attributed to a headward fluid shift that increases venous pressures in the head. The change in IOP exceeds changes measured immediately after moving from seated to supine postures on Earth, when a similar fluid shift is produced. Furthermore, central venous and cerebrospinal fluid pressures are at or below supine position levels when measured initially upon entering microgravity, unlike when moving from seated to supine postures on Earth, when these pressures increase. To investigate the effects of altering gravitational forces on the eye, we made ocular measurements on 24 subjects (13 men, 11 women) in the seated, supine, and prone positions in the laboratory, and upon entering microgravity during parabolic flight. IOP in microgravity (16.3 ± 2.7 mmHg) was significantly elevated above values in the seated (11.5 ± 2.0 mmHg) and supine (13.7 ± 3.0 mmHg) positions, and was significantly less than pressure in the prone position (20.3 ± 2.6 mmHg). In all measurements,P< 0.001. Choroidal area was significantly increased in subjects in a microgravity environment (P< 0.007) compared with values from subjects in seated (increase of 0.09 ± 0.1 mm(2)) and supine (increase of 0.06 ± 0.09 mm(2)) positions. IOP results are consistent with the hypothesis that hydrostatic gradients affect IOP, and may explain how IOP can increase beyond supine values in microgravity when central venous and intracranial pressure do not. Understanding gravitational effects on the eye may help develop hypotheses for how microgravity-induced visual changes develop. PMID:26662052

  12. Climate Change and Vector Borne Diseases: Getting A Grip on Control

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Glass, G. E.; Ellis, H.

    2011-12-01

    Pathogens that are transmitted by arthropods to humans kill millions of people a year and have long been identified as systems likely affected by climate change. Despite this, there has been a long controversy of how to evaluate the responses of these infectious disease systems to climatic conditions so that meaningful programmatic dcisions can be made. We briefly review the rationale for overall expectations, using them to identify both the temporal and spatial resolution needed for decision making and then discuss progress to date, using the world global malaria eradication program as an example.

  13. A Change of Inertia-Supporting the Thrust Vector Control of the Space Launch System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dziubanek, Adam J.

    2012-01-01

    The Space Launch System (SLS) is America's next launch vehicle. To utilize the vehicle more economically, heritage hardware from the Space Transportation System (STS) will be used when possible. The Solid Rocket Booster (SRB) actuators could possibly be used in the core stage of the SLS. The dynamic characteristics of the SRB actuator will need to be tested on an Inertia Load Stand (ILS) that has been converted to Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME). The inertia on the pendulum of the ILS will need to be changed to match the SSME inertia. In this testing environment an SRB actuator can be tested with the equivalent resistence of an SSME.

  14. The Application of a Technique for Vector Correlation to Problems in Meteorology and Oceanography.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Breaker, L. C.; Gemmill, W. H.; Crosby, D. S.

    1994-11-01

    In a recent study, Crosby et al. proposed a definition for vector correlation that has not been commonly used in meteorology or oceanography. This definition has both a firm theoretical basis and a rather complete set of desirable statistical properties. In this study, the authors apply the definition to practical problems arising in meteorology and oceanography. In the first of two case studies, vector correlations were calculated between subsurface currents for five locations along the southeastern shore of Lake Erie. Vector correlations for one sample size were calculated for all current meter combinations, first including the seiche frequency and then with the seiche frequency removed. Removal of the seiche frequency, which was easily detected in the current spectra, had only a small effect on the vector correlations. Under reasonable assumptions, the vector correlations were in most cases statistically significant and revealed considerable fine structure in the vector correlation sequences. In some cases, major variations in vector correlation coincided with changes in surface wind. The vector correlations for the various current meter combinations decreased rapidly with increasing spatial separation. For one current meter combination, canonical correlations were also calculated; the first canonical correlation tended to retain the underlying trend, whereas the second canonical correlation retained the peaks in the vector correlations.In the second case study, vector correlations were calculated between marine surface winds derived from the National Meteorological Center's Global Data Assimilation System and observed winds acquired from the network of National Data Buoy Center buoys that are located off the continental United States and in the Gulf of Alaska. Results of this comparison indicated that 1) there was a significant decrease in correlation between the predicted and observed winds with increasing forecast interval out to 72 h, 2) the technique

  15. Ecological Niche Modelling Predicts Southward Expansion of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata (Diptera: Psychodidae: Phlebotominae), Vector of Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis in South America, under Climate Change.

    PubMed

    Carvalho, Bruno M; Rangel, Elizabeth F; Ready, Paul D; Vale, Mariana M

    2015-01-01

    Vector borne diseases are susceptible to climate change because distributions and densities of many vectors are climate driven. The Amazon region is endemic for cutaneous leishmaniasis and is predicted to be severely impacted by climate change. Recent records suggest that the distributions of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata and the parasite it transmits, Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis, are expanding southward, possibly due to climate change, and sometimes associated with new human infection cases. We define the vector's climatic niche and explore future projections under climate change scenarios. Vector occurrence records were compiled from the literature, museum collections and Brazilian Health Departments. Six bioclimatic variables were used as predictors in six ecological niche model algorithms (BIOCLIM, DOMAIN, MaxEnt, GARP, logistic regression and Random Forest). Projections for 2050 used 17 general circulation models in two greenhouse gas representative concentration pathways: "stabilization" and "high increase". Ensemble models and consensus maps were produced by overlapping binary predictions. Final model outputs showed good performance and significance. The use of species absence data substantially improved model performance. Currently, L. flaviscutellata is widely distributed in the Amazon region, with records in the Atlantic Forest and savannah regions of Central Brazil. Future projections indicate expansion of the climatically suitable area for the vector in both scenarios, towards higher latitudes and elevations. L. flaviscutellata is likely to find increasingly suitable conditions for its expansion into areas where human population size and density are much larger than they are in its current locations. If environmental conditions change as predicted, the range of the vector is likely to expand to southeastern and central-southern Brazil, eastern Paraguay and further into the Amazonian areas of Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador, Colombia and Venezuela

  16. Ecological Niche Modelling Predicts Southward Expansion of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata (Diptera: Psychodidae: Phlebotominae), Vector of Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis in South America, under Climate Change.

    PubMed

    Carvalho, Bruno M; Rangel, Elizabeth F; Ready, Paul D; Vale, Mariana M

    2015-01-01

    Vector borne diseases are susceptible to climate change because distributions and densities of many vectors are climate driven. The Amazon region is endemic for cutaneous leishmaniasis and is predicted to be severely impacted by climate change. Recent records suggest that the distributions of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata and the parasite it transmits, Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis, are expanding southward, possibly due to climate change, and sometimes associated with new human infection cases. We define the vector's climatic niche and explore future projections under climate change scenarios. Vector occurrence records were compiled from the literature, museum collections and Brazilian Health Departments. Six bioclimatic variables were used as predictors in six ecological niche model algorithms (BIOCLIM, DOMAIN, MaxEnt, GARP, logistic regression and Random Forest). Projections for 2050 used 17 general circulation models in two greenhouse gas representative concentration pathways: "stabilization" and "high increase". Ensemble models and consensus maps were produced by overlapping binary predictions. Final model outputs showed good performance and significance. The use of species absence data substantially improved model performance. Currently, L. flaviscutellata is widely distributed in the Amazon region, with records in the Atlantic Forest and savannah regions of Central Brazil. Future projections indicate expansion of the climatically suitable area for the vector in both scenarios, towards higher latitudes and elevations. L. flaviscutellata is likely to find increasingly suitable conditions for its expansion into areas where human population size and density are much larger than they are in its current locations. If environmental conditions change as predicted, the range of the vector is likely to expand to southeastern and central-southern Brazil, eastern Paraguay and further into the Amazonian areas of Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador, Colombia and Venezuela

  17. Climate, environmental and socio-economic change: weighing up the balance in vector-borne disease transmission

    PubMed Central

    Parham, Paul E.; Waldock, Joanna; Christophides, George K.; Hemming, Deborah; Agusto, Folashade; Evans, Katherine J.; Fefferman, Nina; Gaff, Holly; Gumel, Abba; LaDeau, Shannon; Lenhart, Suzanne; Mickens, Ronald E.; Naumova, Elena N.; Ostfeld, Richard S.; Ready, Paul D.; Thomas, Matthew B.; Velasco-Hernandez, Jorge; Michael, Edwin

    2015-01-01

    Arguably one of the most important effects of climate change is the potential impact on human health. While this is likely to take many forms, the implications for future transmission of vector-borne diseases (VBDs), given their ongoing contribution to global disease burden, are both extremely important and highly uncertain. In part, this is owing not only to data limitations and methodological challenges when integrating climate-driven VBD models and climate change projections, but also, perhaps most crucially, to the multitude of epidemiological, ecological and socio-economic factors that drive VBD transmission, and this complexity has generated considerable debate over the past 10–15 years. In this review, we seek to elucidate current knowledge around this topic, identify key themes and uncertainties, evaluate ongoing challenges and open research questions and, crucially, offer some solutions for the field. Although many of these challenges are ubiquitous across multiple VBDs, more specific issues also arise in different vector–pathogen systems. PMID:25688012

  18. The impacts of land use change on malaria vector abundance in a water-limited, highland region of Ethiopia.

    PubMed

    Stryker, Jody J; Bomblies, Arne

    2012-12-01

    Changes in land use and climate are expected to alter the risk of malaria transmission in areas where rainfall limits vector abundance. We use a coupled hydrology-entomology model to investigate the effects of land use change on hydrological processes impacting mosquito abundance in a highland village of Ethiopia. Land use affects partitioning of rainfall into infiltration and runoff that reaches small-scale topographic depressions, which constitute the primary breeding habitat of Anopheles arabiensis mosquitoes. A physically based hydrology model isolates hydrological mechanisms by which land use impacts pool formation and persistence, and an agent-based entomology model evaluates the response of mosquito populations. This approach reproduced observed interannual variability in mosquito abundance between the 2009 and 2010 wet seasons. Several scenarios of land cover were then evaluated using the calibrated, field-validated model. Model results show variation in pool persistence and depth, as well as in mosquito abundance, due to land use changes alone. The model showed particular sensitivity to surface roughness, but also to root zone uptake. Scenarios in which land use was modified from agriculture to forest generally resulted in lowest mosquito abundance predictions; classification of the entire domain as rainforest produced a 34% decrease in abundance compared to 2010 results. This study also showed that in addition to vegetation type, spatial proximity of land use change to habitat locations has an impact on mosquito abundance. This modeling approach can be applied to assess impacts of climate and land use conditions that fall outside of the range of previously observed variability.

  19. Climate change and vector-borne diseases: what are the implications for public health research and policy?

    PubMed

    Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid; Manga, Lucien; Bagayoko, Magaran; Sommerfeld, Johannes

    2015-04-01

    Vector-borne diseases continue to contribute significantly to the global burden of disease, and cause epidemics that disrupt health security and cause wider socioeconomic impacts around the world. All are sensitive in different ways to weather and climate conditions, so that the ongoing trends of increasing temperature and more variable weather threaten to undermine recent global progress against these diseases. Here, we review the current state of the global public health effort to address this challenge, and outline related initiatives by the World Health Organization (WHO) and its partners. Much of the debate to date has centred on attribution of past changes in disease rates to climate change, and the use of scenario-based models to project future changes in risk for specific diseases. While these can give useful indications, the unavoidable uncertainty in such analyses, and contingency on other socioeconomic and public health determinants in the past or future, limit their utility as decision-support tools. For operational health agencies, the most pressing need is the strengthening of current disease control efforts to bring down current disease rates and manage short-term climate risks, which will, in turn, increase resilience to long-term climate change. The WHO and partner agencies are working through a range of programmes to (i) ensure political support and financial investment in preventive and curative interventions to bring down current disease burdens; (ii) promote a comprehensive approach to climate risk management; (iii) support applied research, through definition of global and regional research agendas, and targeted research initiatives on priority diseases and population groups. PMID:25688013

  20. Climate change and vector-borne diseases: what are the implications for public health research and policy?

    PubMed

    Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid; Manga, Lucien; Bagayoko, Magaran; Sommerfeld, Johannes

    2015-04-01

    Vector-borne diseases continue to contribute significantly to the global burden of disease, and cause epidemics that disrupt health security and cause wider socioeconomic impacts around the world. All are sensitive in different ways to weather and climate conditions, so that the ongoing trends of increasing temperature and more variable weather threaten to undermine recent global progress against these diseases. Here, we review the current state of the global public health effort to address this challenge, and outline related initiatives by the World Health Organization (WHO) and its partners. Much of the debate to date has centred on attribution of past changes in disease rates to climate change, and the use of scenario-based models to project future changes in risk for specific diseases. While these can give useful indications, the unavoidable uncertainty in such analyses, and contingency on other socioeconomic and public health determinants in the past or future, limit their utility as decision-support tools. For operational health agencies, the most pressing need is the strengthening of current disease control efforts to bring down current disease rates and manage short-term climate risks, which will, in turn, increase resilience to long-term climate change. The WHO and partner agencies are working through a range of programmes to (i) ensure political support and financial investment in preventive and curative interventions to bring down current disease burdens; (ii) promote a comprehensive approach to climate risk management; (iii) support applied research, through definition of global and regional research agendas, and targeted research initiatives on priority diseases and population groups.

  1. The Impacts of Land Use Change on Malaria Vector Abundance in a Water-Limited Highland Region of Ethiopia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stryker, J.; Bomblies, A.

    2012-12-01

    Changes in land use and climate are expected to alter risk of malaria transmission in areas where rainfall limits vector abundance. We use a coupled hydrology-entomology model to investigate the effects of land use change on hydrological processes impacting mosquito abundance in a highland village of Ethiopia. Land use affects partitioning of rainfall into infiltration and runoff that reaches small-scale topographic depressions, which constitute the primary breeding habitat of Anopheles arabiensis mosquitoes. A physically-based hydrology model isolates hydrological mechanisms by which land use impacts pool formation and persistence, and an agent-based entomology model evaluates the response of mosquito populations. This approach reproduced observed interannual variability in mosquito abundance between the 2009 and 2010 wet seasons. Several scenarios of land cover were then evaluated using the calibrated, field-validated model. Model results show variation in pool persistence and depth, as well as in mosquito abundance, due to land use changes alone. The model showed particular sensitivity to surface roughness, but also to root zone uptake. Scenarios in which land use was modified from agriculture to forest generally resulted in lowest mosquito abundance predictions; classification of the entire domain as rainforest produced a 34% decrease in abundance compared to 2010 results. This study also showed that in addition to vegetation type, spatial proximity of land use change to habitat locations has an impact on mosquito abundance. This modeling approach can be applied to assess impacts of climate and land use conditions that fall outside of the range of previously observed variability.

  2. Climate change and vector-borne diseases: what are the implications for public health research and policy?

    PubMed Central

    Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid; Manga, Lucien; Bagayoko, Magaran; Sommerfeld, Johannes

    2015-01-01

    Vector-borne diseases continue to contribute significantly to the global burden of disease, and cause epidemics that disrupt health security and cause wider socioeconomic impacts around the world. All are sensitive in different ways to weather and climate conditions, so that the ongoing trends of increasing temperature and more variable weather threaten to undermine recent global progress against these diseases. Here, we review the current state of the global public health effort to address this challenge, and outline related initiatives by the World Health Organization (WHO) and its partners. Much of the debate to date has centred on attribution of past changes in disease rates to climate change, and the use of scenario-based models to project future changes in risk for specific diseases. While these can give useful indications, the unavoidable uncertainty in such analyses, and contingency on other socioeconomic and public health determinants in the past or future, limit their utility as decision-support tools. For operational health agencies, the most pressing need is the strengthening of current disease control efforts to bring down current disease rates and manage short-term climate risks, which will, in turn, increase resilience to long-term climate change. The WHO and partner agencies are working through a range of programmes to (i) ensure political support and financial investment in preventive and curative interventions to bring down current disease burdens; (ii) promote a comprehensive approach to climate risk management; (iii) support applied research, through definition of global and regional research agendas, and targeted research initiatives on priority diseases and population groups. PMID:25688013

  3. Changing Malaria Prevalence on the Kenyan Coast since 1974: Climate, Drugs and Vector Control

    PubMed Central

    Snow, Robert W.; Kibuchi, Eliud; Karuri, Stella W.; Sang, Gilbert; Gitonga, Caroline W.; Mwandawiro, Charles; Bejon, Philip; Noor, Abdisalan M.

    2015-01-01

    Background Progress toward reducing the malaria burden in Africa has been measured, or modeled, using datasets with relatively short time-windows. These restricted temporal analyses may miss the wider context of longer-term cycles of malaria risk and hence may lead to incorrect inferences regarding the impact of intervention. Methods 1147 age-corrected Plasmodium falciparum parasite prevalence (PfPR2-10) surveys among rural communities along the Kenyan coast were assembled from 1974 to 2014. A Bayesian conditional autoregressive generalized linear mixed model was used to interpolate to 279 small areas for each of the 41 years since 1974. Best-fit polynomial splined curves of changing PfPR2-10 were compared to a sequence of plausible explanatory variables related to rainfall, drug resistance and insecticide-treated bed net (ITN) use. Results P. falciparum parasite prevalence initially rose from 1974 to 1987, dipped in 1991–92 but remained high until 1998. From 1998 onwards prevalence began to decline until 2011, then began to rise through to 2014. This major decline occurred before ITNs were widely distributed and variation in rainfall coincided with some, but not all, short-term transmission cycles. Emerging resistance to chloroquine and introduction of sulfadoxine/pyrimethamine provided plausible explanations for the rise and fall of malaria transmission along the Kenyan coast. Conclusions Progress towards elimination might not be as predictable as we would like, where natural and extrinsic cycles of transmission confound evaluations of the effect of interventions. Deciding where a country lies on an elimination pathway requires careful empiric observation of the long-term epidemiology of malaria transmission. PMID:26107772

  4. Land-Based Wind Potential Changes in the Southeastern United States (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect

    Roberts, J. O.

    2013-09-01

    Recent advancements in utility-scale wind turbine technology and pricing have vastly increased the potential land area where turbines can be deployed in the United States. This presentation quantifies the new developable land potential (e.g., capacity curves), visually identifies new areas for possible development (e.g., new wind resource maps), and begins to address deployment barriers to wind in new areas for modern and future turbine technology.

  5. Overwinter Changes in Wind Erodibility of Clay Loam Soils in Southern Alberta

    SciTech Connect

    Bullock, M S.; Larney, F. J.; Izaurralde, R Cesar C. ); Feng, Y

    2001-03-21

    Soil dry aggregate size distribution (DASD) and surface roughness are important factors affecting wind erodibility. This study monitored overwinter changes in DASD and surface roughness and identified relationships with climatic variables in the chinook-dominated region of southern Alberta. A different site was monitored in each of three winters (18 Sept. 1992 to 12 May 1993; 26 Oct. 1993 to 29 Apr. 1994; 30 Aug. 1994 to 24 May 1995) on Dark Brown Chernozemic clay loams (fine-loamy, mixed, Typic Haploborolls). The DASD was expressed as geometric mean diameter (GMD) and wind erodible fraction (EF). The GMD ranged from 1.88 to 0.08 mm in 1992-1993, from 9.05 to 1.17 mm in 1993-1994, and from 4.71 to 0.80 mm in 1994-1995. The EF range from 38.9 to 74.0% in 1992-1993, from 12.6 to 43.7% in 1993-1994, and 31.3 to 55.% in 1994-1995. Surface roughness was measured parallel (Cpar) to tillage direction on two of the sites. Using the chain method, Cper ranged from 15.1 to 3.7% in 1993-199 4 and from 14.4 to 3.3% in 1994-1995. Regression analysis with time revealed significant exponential decay for GMD (R2= 0.57 in 1992-1993, 0.97 in 1993-1994, and 0.78 in 1994-1995) and Cpar (R2= 0.98 in 1993-1994, 0.91 in 1994-1995) and a positive linear fit for EF (R2= 0.57 in 1992-1993, 0.91 in 1993-1994, and 0.62 in 1994-1995). Three overwinter periods, differentiated by the timing and form of precipitation and designated as''fall rain/snow'',''winter snow'', and''spring snow/rain'', were used to assess the changes in EF using cumulative freeze-thaw cycles, precipitation, and snow cover

  6. Separating the influence of projected changes in air temperature and wind on patterns of sea level change and ocean heat content

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saenko, Oleg A.; Yang, Duo; Gregory, Jonathan M.; Spence, Paul; Myers, Paul G.

    2015-08-01

    We present ocean model sensitivity experiments aimed at separating the influence of the projected changes in the "thermal" (near-surface air temperature) and "wind" (near-surface winds) forcing on the patterns of sea level and ocean heat content. In the North Atlantic, the distribution of sea level change is more due to the "thermal" forcing, whereas it is more due to the "wind" forcing in the North Pacific; in the Southern Ocean, the "thermal" and "wind" forcing have a comparable influence. In the ocean adjacent to Antarctica the "thermal" forcing leads to an inflow of warmer waters on the continental shelves, which is somewhat attenuated by the "wind" forcing. The structure of the vertically integrated heat uptake is set by different processes at low and high latitudes: at low latitudes it is dominated by the heat transport convergence, whereas at high latitudes it represents a small residual of changes in the surface flux and advection of heat. The structure of the horizontally integrated heat content tendency is set by the increase of downward heat flux by the mean circulation and comparable decrease of upward heat flux by the subgrid-scale processes; the upward eddy heat flux decreases and increases by almost the same magnitude in response to, respectively, the "thermal" and "wind" forcing. Regionally, the surface heat loss and deep convection weaken in the Labrador Sea, but intensify in the Greenland Sea in the region of sea ice retreat. The enhanced heat flux anomaly in the subpolar Atlantic is mainly caused by the "thermal" forcing.

  7. Reconstructing Holocene changes in the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds: Integrating modern processes and paleoclimate data from New Zealand's southern fjords

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hinojosa, J.; Moy, C. M.; Wilson, G. S.; Stirling, C. H.

    2013-12-01

    The Southern Hemisphere westerly winds are an important component of the global carbon cycle due to their influence on Southern Ocean CO2 flux. In addition, the winds influence mid-latitude storm tracks, thereby controlling moisture balance over much of New Zealand's South Island and other Southern Hemisphere regions. Fiordland, New Zealand is an ideal locale to investigate Holocene changes in westerly wind behavior: It sits at the northern margin of the wind field maximum, is sensitive to latitudinal and strength fluctuations of the winds, and is the location of numerous fjord sub-basins with high sedimentation rates (up to 3 mm/yr). Due to the strong positive relationship between wind speed and regional rainfall, reconstructions of past precipitation and fjord circulation can inform us of past westerly wind behavior. These processes can be observed through changes in the rate of organic carbon delivery from land: When precipitation is high, more terrestrial organic carbon is delivered to the fjords, while low precipitation shifts the balance toward accumulation of marine organic carbon. An important first step towards reconstructing past westerly wind variability is to characterize the distribution and cycling of carbon throughout different depositional settings in the fjords to determine the optimal location for the development of paleoclimate records. Here, we present a geochemical characterization of surface sediments and the water column throughout the region and apply this understanding to sediment cores. During three field seasons in 2012 and 2013, we collected surface sediments, particulate organic matter, and piston cores from 10 different fjords spanning 44-46° S. Our results suggest that organic carbon in the fjord basins largely follows a two-end-member mixing model, drawing from marine and terrestrial end-member sources. We see consistent down-fjord trends in carbon and nitrogen concentrations and isotopes measured from surface sediments and

  8. Potential impacts of topography and prevailing wind direction on future precipitation changes in Japan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsunematsu, N.; Dairaku, K.; Hirano, J.

    2013-12-01

    To investigate future changes in summertime precipitation amounts over the Japanese islands and their relations to the topographical heights, this study analyzed 20 km horizontal grid-spacing regional climate model downscalings of MIROC3.2-hires 20C3M and SRES-A1B scenario data for the periods of 1981-2000 and 2081-2100. Results indicate the remarkable increases in June-July-August mean daily precipitation in the west and south sides (windward sides) of the mountainous regions, especially in western Japan where heavy rainfall is frequently observed in the recent climate. The remarkable increases in summertime precipitation are likely to occur not only in high altitude areas but also at low altitudes. The occurrence frequencies of precipitation greater than 100 mm/day would also increase in such areas. The intensification of southwesterly moist air flows in the lower troposphere is considered to be one of the main causes of those precipitation changes because the intensified southwesterly moist air flows impinging on the western and southern slopes of the mountains can generate stronger upslope flows and well-developed clouds, leading to increased precipitation. Also, the results show that future precipitation changes in the lee sides of the mountainous regions (e.g., the Tokyo metropolitan area) would be comparatively small. These results indicate large influences of topography and prevailing wind direction on future precipitation changes. Acknowledgments: This study was conducted as part of the research subject "Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in Water Hazard Assessed Using Regional Climate Scenarios in the Tokyo Region' (National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention; PI: Koji Dairaku) of Research Program on Climate Change Adaptation (RECCA) and was supported by the SOUSEI Program, funded by Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Government of Japan. We thank the regional climate modeling groups (MRI

  9. Late-glacial to holocene changes in winds, upwelling, and seasonal production of the northern California current system

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sancetta, C.; Lyle, M.; Heusser, L.; Zahn, R.; Bradbury, J.P.

    1992-01-01

    A core 120 km off the coast of southern Oregon was examined for changes in lithology, diatoms, and pollen over the past 30,000 yr. Primary production during the late Pleistocene was about half that of the Holocene. Evidence from diatoms and pollen indicates that summer upwelling was much weaker, implying an absence of strong northerly winds. Early Pliocene diatoms found throughout the late Pleistocene section were probably derived from diatomites east of the Cascades and provide evidence for strong easterly winds over a dry continental interior. The findings verify predictions of a climate model based on glacial maximum conditions. There is no compelling evidence for a climatic reversal corresponding to the European Younger Dryas chron. During the early Holocene (9000-7000 yr B.P.) there may have been years when winds were insufficiently strong to support upwelling, so that warm stratified waters lay closer to the coast. ?? 1992.

  10. Statistical-dynamical downscaling for wind energy potentials: Evaluation and applications to decadal hindcasts and climate change projections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reyers, Mark; Pinto, Joaquim G.; Moemken, Julia

    2015-04-01

    A statistical-dynamical downscaling (SDD) approach for the regionalisation of wind energy output (Eout) over Europe with special focus on Germany is proposed. SDD uses an extended circulation weather type (CWT) analysis on global daily MSLP fields with the central point being located over Germany. 77 weather classes based on the associated circulation weather type and the intensity of the geostrophic flow are identified. Representatives of these classes are dynamical downscaled with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM. By using weather class frequencies of different datasets the simulated representatives are recombined to probability density functions (PDFs) of near-surface wind speed and finally to Eout of a sample wind turbine for present and future climate. This is performed for reanalysis, decadal hindcasts and long-term future projections. For evaluation purposes results of SDD are compared to wind observations and to simulated Eout of purely dynamical downscaling (DD) methods. For the present climate SDD is able to simulate realistic PDFs of 10m-wind speed for most stations in Germany. The resulting spatial Eout patterns are similar to DD simulated Eout. In terms of decadal hindcasts results of SDD are similar to DD simulated Eout over Germany, Poland, Czech Republic, and Benelux, for which high correlations between annual Eout timeseries of SDD and DD are detected for selected hindcasts. Lower correlation is found for other European countries. It is demonstrated that SDD can be used to downscale the full ensemble of the MPI-ESM decadal prediction system. Long-term climate change projections in SRES scenarios of ECHAM5/MPI-OM as obtained by SDD agree well to results of other studies using DD methods, with increasing Eout over Northern Europe and a negative trend over Southern Europe. Despite some biases it is concluded that SDD is an adequate tool to assess regional wind energy changes in large model ensembles.

  11. Ecological Niche Modelling Predicts Southward Expansion of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata (Diptera: Psychodidae: Phlebotominae), Vector of Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis in South America, under Climate Change

    PubMed Central

    Carvalho, Bruno M.; Ready, Paul D.

    2015-01-01

    Vector borne diseases are susceptible to climate change because distributions and densities of many vectors are climate driven. The Amazon region is endemic for cutaneous leishmaniasis and is predicted to be severely impacted by climate change. Recent records suggest that the distributions of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata and the parasite it transmits, Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis, are expanding southward, possibly due to climate change, and sometimes associated with new human infection cases. We define the vector’s climatic niche and explore future projections under climate change scenarios. Vector occurrence records were compiled from the literature, museum collections and Brazilian Health Departments. Six bioclimatic variables were used as predictors in six ecological niche model algorithms (BIOCLIM, DOMAIN, MaxEnt, GARP, logistic regression and Random Forest). Projections for 2050 used 17 general circulation models in two greenhouse gas representative concentration pathways: “stabilization” and “high increase”. Ensemble models and consensus maps were produced by overlapping binary predictions. Final model outputs showed good performance and significance. The use of species absence data substantially improved model performance. Currently, L. flaviscutellata is widely distributed in the Amazon region, with records in the Atlantic Forest and savannah regions of Central Brazil. Future projections indicate expansion of the climatically suitable area for the vector in both scenarios, towards higher latitudes and elevations. L. flaviscutellata is likely to find increasingly suitable conditions for its expansion into areas where human population size and density are much larger than they are in its current locations. If environmental conditions change as predicted, the range of the vector is likely to expand to southeastern and central-southern Brazil, eastern Paraguay and further into the Amazonian areas of Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador, Colombia and

  12. Aerobiology of Artemisia airborne pollen in Murcia (SE Spain) and its relationship with weather variables: annual and intradiurnal variations for three different species. Wind vectors as a tool in determining pollen origin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giner, M. Munuera; Carrión García, José S.; García Sellés, Javier

    Detailed results from a 2-year survey of airborne pollen concentrations of Artemisia in Murcia are presented. Three consecutive pollen seasons of Artemisia occurring each year, related to three different species (A.campestris, A.herba-alba and A.barrelieri), were observed. A winter blooming of Artemisia could explain the incidence of subsequent pollinosis in the Murcia area. With regard to meteorological parameters, mathematical analyses showed relationships between daily pollen concentrations of Artemisia in summer-autumn and precipitations that occurred 6-8 weeks before. The cumulative percentage of insolation from 1 March seemed to be related to blooming onsets. Once pollination has begun, meteorological factors do not seem to influence pollen concentrations significantly. Intradiurnal patterns of pollen concentrations were similar for late summer and winter species (A. campestris and A.barrelieri). During autumn blooming (A.herba-alba), the intradiurnal pattern was particularly erratic. Theoretical values of wind run were obtained for each pollen season by the graphical sum of hourly wind vectors. When theoretical wind run was mapped onto the vegetation pattern, supposed pollen source locations were obtained for each hour. By comparing supposed hourly pollen origins with the intradiurnal patterns of pollen concentrations, it can be seen that this simple model explains variations in mean pollen concentrations throughout the day.

  13. Two approaches for incorporating climate change into natural resource management planning at Wind Cave National Park

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Symstad, Amy; Long, Andrew J.; Stamm, John; King, David A.; Bachelet, Dominque M.; Norton, Parker A.

    2014-01-01

    Wind Cave National Park (WICA) protects one of the world’s longest caves, has large amounts of high quality, native vegetation, and hosts a genetically important bison herd. The park’s relatively small size and unique purpose within its landscape requires hands-on management of these and other natural resources, all of which are interconnected. Anthropogenic climate change presents an added challenge to WICA natural resource management because it is characterized by large uncertainties, many of which are beyond the control of park and National Park Service (NPS) staff. When uncertainty is high and control of this uncertainty low, scenario planning is an appropriate tool for determining future actions. In 2009, members of the NPS obtained formal training in the use of scenario planning in order to evaluate it as a tool for incorporating climate change into NPS natural resource management planning. WICA served as one of two case studies used in this training exercise. Although participants in the training exercise agreed that the scenario planning process showed promise for its intended purpose, they were concerned that the process lacked the scientific rigor necessary to defend the management implications derived from it in the face of public scrutiny. This report addresses this concern and others by (1) providing a thorough description of the process of the 2009 scenario planning exercise, as well as its results and management implications for WICA; (2) presenting the results of a follow-up, scientific study that quantitatively simulated responses of WICA’s hydrological and ecological systems to specific climate projections; (3) placing these climate projections and the general climate scenarios used in the scenario planning exercise in the broader context of available climate projections; and (4) comparing the natural resource management implications derived from the two approaches. Wind Cave National Park (WICA) protects one of the world’s longest caves

  14. Projected Future Changes in Westerly Winds Associated the South Pacific Winter Split Jet

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bracegirdle, T.

    2015-12-01

    Projected changes in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) mid-latitude near-surface westerly winds and associated storm tracks are key influences on Antarctica and the Southern Ocean, with, for example, significant implications for ice sheet stability. Climate model projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model ensemble generally exhibit a poleward shift of the SH tropospheric westerly jet under increased greenhouse gas concentrations. However, the picture is more complex over the South Pacific in winter, when the climatological tropospheric jet is split into two components: a sub-tropical jet (STJ) (at around 25-30°S) and a higher-latitude polar front jet (PFJ) (at around 55-60°S) which is more directly related to the main mid-latitude lower-tropospheric storm track. On average the CMIP5 models project an equatorward shift of the winter PFJ which consequently becomes more merged with a poleward-shifted STJ. A key question is the extent to which this ensemble-mean picture is robust across the CMIP5 models, many of which poorly reproduce the observed split jet structure. To address this question CMIP5 output has been used to conduct the first detailed evaluation of future projections of the winter split jet. The PFJ dominates the surface signature of the split jet, but is too weak in historically-forced simulations of most CMIP5 models. It is found that this has important implications for future projections, since the ensemble mean projected equatorward shift is mainly attributable to models with weak PFJs. A subset of 10 CMIP5 models with the weakest surface expression of the PFJ (on average 39% weaker than reanalysis estimates) exhibit an equatorward shift of 2.5° over the 21st century following the high emissions RCP8.5 scenario. In contrast, a subset of 10 models with the smallest historical biases (on average 6% weaker than reanalysis) exhibit no shift in the PFJ, but do show a strengthening of approximately 1 m/s that

  15. The National Assessment of Shoreline Change: a GIS compilation of vector shorelines and associated shoreline change data for the U.S. southeast Atlantic coast

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Miller, Tara L.; Morton, Robert A.; Sallenger, Asbury H.

    2006-01-01

    The Coastal and Marine Geology Program of the U.S. Geological Survey has generated a comprehensive database of digital vector shorelines and shoreline change rates for the U.S. Southeast Atlantic Coast (Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina). These data, which are presented herein, were compiled as part of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Assessment of Shoreline Change Project. Beach erosion is a chronic problem along most open-ocean shores of the United States. As coastal populations continue to grow and community infrastructures are threatened by erosion, there is increased demand for accurate information including rates and trends of shoreline migration. There is also a critical need for shoreline change data that is consistent from one coastal region to another. One purpose of this work is to develop standard repeatable methods for mapping and analyzing shoreline movement so that periodic updates of shorelines and shoreline change rates can be made nationally that are systematic and internally consistent. This data compilation for open-ocean, sandy shorelines of the U.S. Southeast Atlantic Coast is the second in a series that already includes the Gulf of Mexico, and will eventually include the Pacific Coast, and parts of Hawaii and Alaska. Short- and long-term shoreline change evaluations are based on merging three historical shorelines with a modern shoreline derived from lidar (light detection and ranging) topographic surveys. Historical shorelines generally represent the following time periods: 1800s, 1920s-1930s, and 1970s. The most recent shoreline is derived from data collected over the period of 1997-2002. Long-term rates of change are calculated by linear regression using all four shorelines. Short-term rates of change are simple end-point rate calculations using the two most recent shorelines. Please refer to our full report on shoreline change for the U.S. Southeast Atlantic Coast at http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2005/1401/ to get additional

  16. Analysis of Change in the Wind Speed Ratio according to Apartment Layout and Solutions

    PubMed Central

    Hyung, Won-gil; Kim, Young-Moon; You, Ki-Pyo

    2014-01-01

    Apartment complexes in various forms are built in downtown areas. The arrangement of an apartment complex has great influence on the wind flow inside it. There are issues of residents' walking due to gust occurrence within apartment complexes, problems with pollutant emission due to airflow congestion, and heat island and cool island phenomena in apartment complexes. Currently, the forms of internal arrangements of apartment complexes are divided into the flat type and the tower type. In the present study, a wind tunnel experiment and computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation were performed with respect to internal wind flows in different apartment arrangement forms. Findings of the wind tunnel experiment showed that the internal form and arrangement of an apartment complex had significant influence on its internal airflow. The wind velocity of the buildings increased by 80% at maximum due to the proximity effects between the buildings. The CFD simulation for relaxing such wind flows indicated that the wind velocity reduced by 40% or more at maximum when the paths between the lateral sides of the buildings were extended. PMID:24688430

  17. Analysis of change in the wind speed ratio according to apartment layout and solutions.

    PubMed

    Hyung, Won-gil; Kim, Young-Moon; You, Ki-Pyo

    2014-01-01

    Apartment complexes in various forms are built in downtown areas. The arrangement of an apartment complex has great influence on the wind flow inside it. There are issues of residents' walking due to gust occurrence within apartment complexes, problems with pollutant emission due to airflow congestion, and heat island and cool island phenomena in apartment complexes. Currently, the forms of internal arrangements of apartment complexes are divided into the flat type and the tower type. In the present study, a wind tunnel experiment and computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation were performed with respect to internal wind flows in different apartment arrangement forms. Findings of the wind tunnel experiment showed that the internal form and arrangement of an apartment complex had significant influence on its internal airflow. The wind velocity of the buildings increased by 80% at maximum due to the proximity effects between the buildings. The CFD simulation for relaxing such wind flows indicated that the wind velocity reduced by 40% or more at maximum when the paths between the lateral sides of the buildings were extended.

  18. Spatially-Explicit Simulation Modeling of Ecological Response to Climate Change: Methodological Considerations in Predicting Shifting Population Dynamics of Infectious Disease Vectors

    PubMed Central

    Dhingra, Radhika; Jimenez, Violeta; Chang, Howard H.; Gambhir, Manoj; Fu, Joshua S.; Liu, Yang; Remais, Justin V.

    2014-01-01

    Poikilothermic disease vectors can respond to altered climates through spatial changes in both population size and phenology. Quantitative descriptors to characterize, analyze and visualize these dynamic responses are lacking, particularly across large spatial domains. In order to demonstrate the value of a spatially explicit, dynamic modeling approach, we assessed spatial changes in the population dynamics of Ixodes scapularis, the Lyme disease vector, using a temperature-forced population model simulated across a grid of 4 × 4 km cells covering the eastern United States, using both modeled (Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) 3.2.1) baseline/current (2001–2004) and projected (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5; 2057–2059) climate data. Ten dynamic population features (DPFs) were derived from simulated populations and analyzed spatially to characterize the regional population response to current and future climate across the domain. Each DPF under the current climate was assessed for its ability to discriminate observed Lyme disease risk and known vector presence/absence, using data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Peak vector population and month of peak vector population were the DPFs that performed best as predictors of current Lyme disease risk. When examined under baseline and projected climate scenarios, the spatial and temporal distributions of DPFs shift and the seasonal cycle of key questing life stages is compressed under some scenarios. Our results demonstrate the utility of spatial characterization, analysis and visualization of dynamic population responses—including altered phenology—of disease vectors to altered climate. PMID:24772388

  19. Spatially-Explicit Simulation Modeling of Ecological Response to Climate Change: Methodological Considerations in Predicting Shifting Population Dynamics of Infectious Disease Vectors.

    PubMed

    Dhingra, Radhika; Jimenez, Violeta; Chang, Howard H; Gambhir, Manoj; Fu, Joshua S; Liu, Yang; Remais, Justin V

    2013-09-01

    Poikilothermic disease vectors can respond to altered climates through spatial changes in both population size and phenology. Quantitative descriptors to characterize, analyze and visualize these dynamic responses are lacking, particularly across large spatial domains. In order to demonstrate the value of a spatially explicit, dynamic modeling approach, we assessed spatial changes in the population dynamics of Ixodes scapularis, the Lyme disease vector, using a temperature-forced population model simulated across a grid of 4 × 4 km cells covering the eastern United States, using both modeled (Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) 3.2.1) baseline/current (2001-2004) and projected (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5; 2057-2059) climate data. Ten dynamic population features (DPFs) were derived from simulated populations and analyzed spatially to characterize the regional population response to current and future climate across the domain. Each DPF under the current climate was assessed for its ability to discriminate observed Lyme disease risk and known vector presence/absence, using data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Peak vector population and month of peak vector population were the DPFs that performed best as predictors of current Lyme disease risk. When examined under baseline and projected climate scenarios, the spatial and temporal distributions of DPFs shift and the seasonal cycle of key questing life stages is compressed under some scenarios. Our results demonstrate the utility of spatial characterization, analysis and visualization of dynamic population responses-including altered phenology-of disease vectors to altered climate. PMID:24772388

  20. Spatially-Explicit Simulation Modeling of Ecological Response to Climate Change: Methodological Considerations in Predicting Shifting Population Dynamics of Infectious Disease Vectors.

    PubMed

    Dhingra, Radhika; Jimenez, Violeta; Chang, Howard H; Gambhir, Manoj; Fu, Joshua S; Liu, Yang; Remais, Justin V

    2013-09-01

    Poikilothermic disease vectors can respond to altered climates through spatial changes in both population size and phenology. Quantitative descriptors to characterize, analyze and visualize these dynamic responses are lacking, particularly across large spatial domains. In order to demonstrate the value of a spatially explicit, dynamic modeling approach, we assessed spatial changes in the population dynamics of Ixodes scapularis, the Lyme disease vector, using a temperature-forced population model simulated across a grid of 4 × 4 km cells covering the eastern United States, using both modeled (Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) 3.2.1) baseline/current (2001-2004) and projected (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5; 2057-2059) climate data. Ten dynamic population features (DPFs) were derived from simulated populations and analyzed spatially to characterize the regional population response to current and future climate across the domain. Each DPF under the current climate was assessed for its ability to discriminate observed Lyme disease risk and known vector presence/absence, using data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Peak vector population and month of peak vector population were the DPFs that performed best as predictors of current Lyme disease risk. When examined under baseline and projected climate scenarios, the spatial and temporal distributions of DPFs shift and the seasonal cycle of key questing life stages is compressed under some scenarios. Our results demonstrate the utility of spatial characterization, analysis and visualization of dynamic population responses-including altered phenology-of disease vectors to altered climate.

  1. Changing Snow Cover and Stream Discharge in the Western United States - Wind River Range, Wyoming

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hall, Dorothy K.; Foster, James L.; DiGirolamo, Nicolo E.; Barton, Jonathan S.; Riggs, George A.

    2011-01-01

    Earlier onset of springtime weather has been documented in the western United States over at least the last 50 years. Because the majority (>70%) of the water supply in the western U.S. comes from snowmelt, analysis of the declining spring snowpack has important implications for the management of water resources. We studied ten years of Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) snow-cover products, 40 years of stream discharge and meteorological station data and 30 years of snow-water equivalent (SWE) SNOw Telemetry (SNOTEL) data in the Wind River Range (WRR), Wyoming. Results show increasing air temperatures for.the 40-year study period. Discharge from streams in WRR drainage basins show lower annual discharge and earlier snowmelt in the decade of the 2000s than in the previous three decades. Changes in streamflow may be related to increasing air temperatures which are probably contributing to a reduction in snow cover, although no trend of either increasingly lower streamflow or earlier snowmelt was observed within the decade of the 2000s. And SWE on 1 April does not show an expected downward trend from 1980 to 2009. The extent of snow cover derived from the lowest-elevation zone of the WRR study area is strongly correlated (r=0.91) with stream discharge on 1 May during the decade of the 2000s. The strong relationship between snow cover and streamflow indicates that MODIS snow-cover maps can be used to improve management of water resources in the drought-prone western U.S.

  2. Theoretical study of the effect of wind velocity gradients on longitudinal stability and control in climbing and level flight

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sherman, W. L.

    1978-01-01

    A change in the wind vector over a short distance along the flight path (wind gradient) has caused several severe airplane accidents during take-off and landing. Results of a previous study showed that, in descending flight, a positive wind gradient (decreasing head wind) caused severe divergent motion and a negative wind gradient (decreasing tail wind) caused oscillatory motion which should not create a control problem. The results obtained when the same method of analysis was applied to climbing and to straight and level flight are reported. In straight and level flight, a wind gradient was found to cause effects similar to those found in descending flight. In climbing flight, it was found that a negative wind gradient caused a slightly divergent oscillation that presented no control problems and a positive wind gradient caused oscillatory divergence. Results of motion studies indicated that adequate control of the airplane motions can be provided by automatic control systems.

  3. Estimating expected change of wind speed and solar radiation in the Carpathian basin using fine resolution regional climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bartholy, J.; Pongracz, R.; Dobor, L.; Miklos, E.; Gelybo, G. Y.

    2009-04-01

    Spatial resolution of global climate models (GCMs) are inappropriate to describe regional climate processes; therefore, GCM outputs may be misleading to compose regional climate change scenarios for the 21st century. In order to provide better estimations for regional climate parameters, fine resolution regional climate models (RCM) can be used. RCMs are limited area models nested in GCMs, i.e., the initial and the boundary conditions of RCMs are provided by the GCM outputs. In order to estimate the regional climate change expected in the Carpathian basin, outputs from several RCMs are summarized and analyzed for the periods of 2071-2100 (in case of A2 and B2 emission scenarios) and 1961-1990 (representing the current baseline climatic conditions). The RCM output variables with 50 km resolution horizontal are available from the completed European project PRUDENCE (Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining EuropeaN Climate change risks and Effects). Wind speed and solar radiation are both important meteorological parameters in terms of renewable energy potentials. The results suggest that in the Carpathian basin wind speed is likely to increase in all months by the end of the 21st century in case of both scenarios, which increases the wind energy potential in the region. Solar radiation is projected to increase in the summer half-year, and slightly decrease in winter. Thus, solar energy use during summer may become a more efficient renewable source in the future.

  4. Vectorized Monte Carlo

    SciTech Connect

    Brown, F.B.

    1981-01-01

    Examination of the global algorithms and local kernels of conventional general-purpose Monte Carlo codes shows that multigroup Monte Carlo methods have sufficient structure to permit efficient vectorization. A structured multigroup Monte Carlo algorithm for vector computers is developed in which many particle events are treated at once on a cell-by-cell basis. Vectorization of kernels for tracking and variance reduction is described, and a new method for discrete sampling is developed to facilitate the vectorization of collision analysis. To demonstrate the potential of the new method, a vectorized Monte Carlo code for multigroup radiation transport analysis was developed. This code incorporates many features of conventional general-purpose production codes, including general geometry, splitting and Russian roulette, survival biasing, variance estimation via batching, a number of cutoffs, and generalized tallies of collision, tracklength, and surface crossing estimators with response functions. Predictions of vectorized performance characteristics for the CYBER-205 were made using emulated coding and a dynamic model of vector instruction timing. Computation rates were examined for a variety of test problems to determine sensitivities to batch size and vector lengths. Significant speedups are predicted for even a few hundred particles per batch, and asymptotic speedups by about 40 over equivalent Amdahl 470V/8 scalar codes arepredicted for a few thousand particles per batch. The principal conclusion is that vectorization of a general-purpose multigroup Monte Carlo code is well worth the significant effort required for stylized coding and major algorithmic changes.

  5. [Epidemiology of emerging and resurging vector-borne diseases with special attention to climate change in Germany (review)].

    PubMed

    Schwaiger, Karin; Bauer, Johann

    2009-01-01

    Vector-borne diseases gained importance in Germany during the past years. Borreliosis and tick-borne encephalitis are already well-known infectious diseases, transmitted by Ixodes ricinus. But reports on severe diseases, formerly only known as so-called "travel sickness" from tropical countries, markedly increased in the recent years. Several climate models predict a global warming of 1.4 degrees C up to 5.8 degrees C until the year 2100, and as climate-typical temperature barriers restrict the distribution of the vectors, especially arthropod-borne diseases are strongly influenced by the climate. Due to the growing clinical importance, the present state of information concerning the epidemiological situation of all known vector-borne diseases in Germany is summarized in this review.

  6. Thermal and Pressure Characterization of a Wind Tunnel Force Balance Using the Single Vector System. Experimental Design and Analysis Approach to Model Pressure and Temperature Effects in Hypersonic Wind Tunnel Research

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lynn, Keith C.; Commo, Sean A.; Johnson, Thomas H.; Parker, Peter A,

    2011-01-01

    Wind tunnel research at NASA Langley Research Center s 31-inch Mach 10 hypersonic facility utilized a 5-component force balance, which provided a pressurized flow-thru capability to the test article. The goal of the research was to determine the interaction effects between the free-stream flow and the exit flow from the reaction control system on the Mars Science Laboratory aeroshell during planetary entry. In the wind tunnel, the balance was exposed to aerodynamic forces and moments, steady-state and transient thermal gradients, and various internal balance cavity pressures. Historically, these effects on force measurement accuracy have not been fully characterized due to limitations in the calibration apparatus. A statistically designed experiment was developed to adequately characterize the behavior of the balance over the expected wind tunnel operating ranges (forces/moments, temperatures, and pressures). The experimental design was based on a Taylor-series expansion in the seven factors for the mathematical models. Model inversion was required to calculate the aerodynamic forces and moments as a function of the strain-gage readings. Details regarding transducer on-board compensation techniques, experimental design development, mathematical modeling, and wind tunnel data reduction are included in this paper.

  7. Changing vessel routes could significantly reduce the cost of future offshore wind projects.

    PubMed

    Samoteskul, Kateryna; Firestone, Jeremy; Corbett, James; Callahan, John

    2014-08-01

    With the recent emphasis on offshore wind energy Coastal and Marine Spatial Planning (CMSP) has become one of the main frameworks used to plan and manage the increasingly complex web of ocean and coastal uses. As wind development becomes more prevalent, existing users of the ocean space, such as commercial shippers, will be compelled to share their historically open-access waters with these projects. Here, we demonstrate the utility of using cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) to support siting decisions within a CMSP framework. In this study, we assume that large-scale offshore wind development will take place in the US Mid-Atlantic within the next decades. We then evaluate whether building projects nearshore or far from shore would be more cost-effective. Building projects nearshore is assumed to require rerouting of the commercial vessel traffic traveling between the US Mid-Atlantic ports by an average of 18.5 km per trip. We focus on less than 1500 transits by large deep-draft vessels. We estimate that over 29 years of the study, commercial shippers would incur an additional $0.2 billion (in 2012$) in direct and indirect costs. Building wind projects closer to shore where vessels used to transit would generate approximately $13.4 billion (in 2012$) in savings. Considering the large cost savings, modifying areas where vessels transit needs to be included in the portfolio of policies used to support the growth of the offshore wind industry in the US. PMID:24794388

  8. Changing vessel routes could significantly reduce the cost of future offshore wind projects.

    PubMed

    Samoteskul, Kateryna; Firestone, Jeremy; Corbett, James; Callahan, John

    2014-08-01

    With the recent emphasis on offshore wind energy Coastal and Marine Spatial Planning (CMSP) has become one of the main frameworks used to plan and manage the increasingly complex web of ocean and coastal uses. As wind development becomes more prevalent, existing users of the ocean space, such as commercial shippers, will be compelled to share their historically open-access waters with these projects. Here, we demonstrate the utility of using cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) to support siting decisions within a CMSP framework. In this study, we assume that large-scale offshore wind development will take place in the US Mid-Atlantic within the next decades. We then evaluate whether building projects nearshore or far from shore would be more cost-effective. Building projects nearshore is assumed to require rerouting of the commercial vessel traffic traveling between the US Mid-Atlantic ports by an average of 18.5 km per trip. We focus on less than 1500 transits by large deep-draft vessels. We estimate that over 29 years of the study, commercial shippers would incur an additional $0.2 billion (in 2012$) in direct and indirect costs. Building wind projects closer to shore where vessels used to transit would generate approximately $13.4 billion (in 2012$) in savings. Considering the large cost savings, modifying areas where vessels transit needs to be included in the portfolio of policies used to support the growth of the offshore wind industry in the US.

  9. Climate change projected fire weather sensitivity: CaliforniaSanta Ana wind occurrence

    SciTech Connect

    Miller, Norman L.; Schlegel, Nicole J.

    2006-01-01

    A new methodbased on global climate model pressuregradients was developed for identifying coastal high-wind fire weatherconditions, such as the Santa Ana Occurrence (SAO). Application of thismethod for determining southern California Santa Ana wind occurrenceresulted in a good correlation between derived large-scale SAOs andobserved offshore winds during periods of low humidity. The projectedchange in the number of SAOs was analyzed using two global climatemodels, one a low temperature sensitivity and the other amiddle-temperature sensitivity, both forced with low and high emissionscenarios, for three future time periods. This initial analysis showsconsistent shifts in SAO events from earlier (September-October) to later(November-December) in the season, suggesting that SAOs may significantlyincrease the extent of California coastal areas burned by wildfires, lossof life, and property.

  10. Future changes of wind energy potentials over Europe in a large CMIP5 multi-model ensemble

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moemken, Julia; Reyers, Mark; Pinto, Joaquim G.

    2016-04-01

    A statistical-dynamical downscaling method is used to estimate future changes of wind energy output (Eout) of a benchmark wind turbine across Europe at the regional scale. With this aim, 22 global climate models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble are considered. The downscaling method uses circulation weather types and regional climate modelling with the COSMO-CLM model. Future projections are computed for two time periods (2021-2060 and 2061-2100) following two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The CMIP5 ensemble mean response reveals a more likely than not increase of mean annual Eout over Northern and Central Europe and a likely decrease over Southern Europe. There is some uncertainty with respect to the magnitude and the sign of the changes. Higher robustness in future changes is observed for specific seasons. Except from the Mediterranean area, an ensemble mean increase of Eout is simulated for winter and a decreasing for the summer season, resulting in a strong increase of the intra-annual variability for most of Europe. The latter is, in particular, probable during the second half of the 21st century under the RCP8.5 scenario. In general, signals are stronger for 2061-2100 compared to 2021-2060 and for RCP8.5 compared to RCP4.5. Regarding changes of the inter-annual variability of Eout for Central Europe, the future projections strongly vary between individual models and also between future periods and scenarios within single models. This study showed for an ensemble of 22 CMIP5 models that changes in the wind energy potentials over Europe may take place in future decades. However, due to the uncertainties detected in this research, further investigations with multi-model ensembles are needed to provide a better quantification and understanding of the future changes.

  11. Future changes of wind energy potentials over Europe in a large CMIP5 multi-model ensemble

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reyers, Mark; Moemken, Julia; Pinto, Joaquim G.

    2015-04-01

    A statistical-dynamical downscaling method is used to estimate future changes of wind energy output (Eout) of an idealized wind turbine across Europe at the regional scale. With this aim, 22 GCMs of the CMIP5 ensemble are considered. The downscaling method uses circulation weather types and regional climate modelling with the COSMO-CLM model. Future projections are computed for two time periods (2021-2060 and 2061-2100) following two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The CMIP5 ensemble mean response reveal a more likely than not increase of mean annual Eout over Northern and Central Europe and a likely decrease over Southern Europe. There is some uncertainty with respect to the magnitude and the sign of the changes. Higher robustness in future changes is observed for specific seasons. Except from the Mediterranean area, an ensemble mean increase of Eout is simulated for winter and a decreasing for the summer season, resulting in a strong increase of the intra-annual variability for most of Europe. The latter is in particular likely during the 2nd half of the 21st century under the RCP8.5 scenario. In general, signals are stronger for 2061-2100 compared to 2021-2060 and for RCP8.5 compared to RCP4.5. Regarding changes of the inter-annual variability of Eout for Central Europe, the future projections strongly vary between individual models and also between future periods and scenarios within single models. This study showed for an ensemble of 22 CMIP5 models that changes in the wind energy potentials over Europe may take place in future decades. However, due to the uncertainties detected in this research, further investigations with multi-model ensembles are needed to provide a better quantification and understanding of the future changes.

  12. The impact of climate change on the geographical distribution of two vectors of Chagas disease: implications for the force of infection.

    PubMed

    Medone, Paula; Ceccarelli, Soledad; Parham, Paul E; Figuera, Andreína; Rabinovich, Jorge E

    2015-04-01

    Chagas disease, caused by the parasite Trypanosoma cruzi, is the most important vector-borne disease in Latin America. The vectors are insects belonging to the Triatominae (Hemiptera, Reduviidae), and are widely distributed in the Americas. Here, we assess the implications of climatic projections for 2050 on the geographical footprint of two of the main Chagas disease vectors: Rhodnius prolixus (tropical species) and Triatoma infestans (temperate species). We estimated the epidemiological implications of current to future transitions in the climatic niche in terms of changes in the force of infection (FOI) on the rural population of two countries: Venezuela (tropical) and Argentina (temperate). The climatic projections for 2050 showed heterogeneous impact on the climatic niches of both vector species, with a decreasing trend of suitability of areas that are currently at high-to-moderate transmission risk. Consequently, climatic projections affected differently the FOI for Chagas disease in Venezuela and Argentina. Despite the heterogeneous results, our main conclusions point out a decreasing trend in the number of new cases of Tr. cruzi human infections per year between current and future conditions using a climatic niche approach.

  13. The impact of climate change on the geographical distribution of two vectors of Chagas disease: implications for the force of infection.

    PubMed

    Medone, Paula; Ceccarelli, Soledad; Parham, Paul E; Figuera, Andreína; Rabinovich, Jorge E

    2015-04-01

    Chagas disease, caused by the parasite Trypanosoma cruzi, is the most important vector-borne disease in Latin America. The vectors are insects belonging to the Triatominae (Hemiptera, Reduviidae), and are widely distributed in the Americas. Here, we assess the implications of climatic projections for 2050 on the geographical footprint of two of the main Chagas disease vectors: Rhodnius prolixus (tropical species) and Triatoma infestans (temperate species). We estimated the epidemiological implications of current to future transitions in the climatic niche in terms of changes in the force of infection (FOI) on the rural population of two countries: Venezuela (tropical) and Argentina (temperate). The climatic projections for 2050 showed heterogeneous impact on the climatic niches of both vector species, with a decreasing trend of suitability of areas that are currently at high-to-moderate transmission risk. Consequently, climatic projections affected differently the FOI for Chagas disease in Venezuela and Argentina. Despite the heterogeneous results, our main conclusions point out a decreasing trend in the number of new cases of Tr. cruzi human infections per year between current and future conditions using a climatic niche approach. PMID:25688019

  14. The impact of climate change on the geographical distribution of two vectors of Chagas disease: implications for the force of infection

    PubMed Central

    Medone, Paula; Ceccarelli, Soledad; Parham, Paul E.; Figuera, Andreína; Rabinovich, Jorge E.

    2015-01-01

    Chagas disease, caused by the parasite Trypanosoma cruzi, is the most important vector-borne disease in Latin America. The vectors are insects belonging to the Triatominae (Hemiptera, Reduviidae), and are widely distributed in the Americas. Here, we assess the implications of climatic projections for 2050 on the geographical footprint of two of the main Chagas disease vectors: Rhodnius prolixus (tropical species) and Triatoma infestans (temperate species). We estimated the epidemiological implications of current to future transitions in the climatic niche in terms of changes in the force of infection (FOI) on the rural population of two countries: Venezuela (tropical) and Argentina (temperate). The climatic projections for 2050 showed heterogeneous impact on the climatic niches of both vector species, with a decreasing trend of suitability of areas that are currently at high-to-moderate transmission risk. Consequently, climatic projections affected differently the FOI for Chagas disease in Venezuela and Argentina. Despite the heterogeneous results, our main conclusions point out a decreasing trend in the number of new cases of Tr. cruzi human infections per year between current and future conditions using a climatic niche approach. PMID:25688019

  15. Variability in prevailing wind patterns during the Quaternary based on yardang morphology in the Qaidam Basin, China, and implications for climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stubblefield, R. K.; Heermance, R. V., III

    2015-12-01

    The Qaidam Basin (QB) in the NE Tibetan Plateau provides an exceptional example of an aeolian landscape, comprised of wind-scoured bedrock, yardangs, and sand dunes. Yardangs are elongated ridges, eroded into bedrock, that have a blunt windward end and a leeward end that tapers in the direction of wind flow. A change in wind direction may truncate or overprint older yardangs with new landforms, or a drop-off in wind speed may halt erosion and provide time to develop a soil on the yardang surface. Analysis of 158 yardangs from Google Earth imagery reveals at least three generations of yardangs in the QB, which suggests great shifts in wind paths over time. In addition, 97 dunes were measured to assess present wind direction. The majority of the studied yardangs (n=104) were shaped by NW winds (mean azimuth 140°), consistent with present wind directions based on dune morphology and weather station data. A second generation of yardangs (n=42; mean azimuth 180°) does not align with the present wind regime, and is in places cut by modern landforms, in addition to exhibiting windward erosion from present winds. The oldest evidence for wind erosion is observed from "paleoyardangs" (n=12) that appear to be much older ridges that were buried and then re-exhumed. These paleoyardangs are aligned at roughly 100° and suggest an ancient, westerly wind path. These three populations of yardangs likely record three distinct wind regimes: a recent, Holocene path coming from the NW; an earlier, possibly glacial period, path originating due north and fanning out to the south; and a third, much older, westerly path, resulting from a different climatic or topographic setting. Our data reveal the utility of yardangs as paleoclimate indicators, and thus provides a framework to evaluate Quaternary atmospheric circulation.

  16. Econometric analysis of the changing effects in wind strength and significant wave height on the probability of casualty in shipping.

    PubMed

    Knapp, Sabine; Kumar, Shashi; Sakurada, Yuri; Shen, Jiajun

    2011-05-01

    This study uses econometric models to measure the effect of significant wave height and wind strength on the probability of casualty and tests whether these effects changed. While both effects are in particular relevant for stability and strength calculations of vessels, it is also helpful for the development of ship construction standards in general to counteract increased risk resulting from changing oceanographic conditions. The authors analyzed a unique dataset of 3.2 million observations from 20,729 individual vessels in the North Atlantic and Arctic regions gathered during the period 1979-2007. The results show that although there is a seasonal pattern in the probability of casualty especially during the winter months, the effect of wind strength and significant wave height do not follow the same seasonal pattern. Additionally, over time, significant wave height shows an increasing effect in January, March, May and October while wind strength shows a decreasing effect, especially in January, March and May. The models can be used to simulate relationships and help understand the relationships. This is of particular interest to naval architects and ship designers as well as multilateral agencies such as the International Maritime Organization (IMO) that establish global standards in ship design and construction. PMID:21376925

  17. Bats in a Mediterranean Mountainous Landscape: Does Wind Farm Repowering Induce Changes at Assemblage and Species Level?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ferri, Vincenzo; Battisti, Corrado; Soccini, Christiana

    2016-06-01

    We reported data on flying bat assemblages in a Mediterranean mountain landscape of central Italy on a 5-year time span (2005-2010) where a wind farm repowering has been carried out (from 2009, 17 three-blade turbines substituted an a priori set of one-blade turbines). In 4 yearly based surveys, we calculated a set of univariate metrics at species and assemblage level and also performing a diversity/dominance analysis ( k-dominance plots) to evaluate temporal changes. Nine species of bats were present (eight classified at species level, one at genus level). Number of detected taxa, Margalef richness, and Shannon-Wiener diversity apparently decreased between 2005-2007 (one-blade turbine period) and 2009-2010 (three-blade turbines period). We showed a weak temporal turnover only between 2007 and 2009. In k-dominance plots, the occurrence curves of the years before the new wind farming activity (2005 and 2007) were lower when compared to the curves related to the 2009 and 2010 years, suggesting an apparent stress at assemblage level in the second period (2009 and 2010). Myotis emarginatus and Pipistrellus pipistrellus significantly changed their relative frequency during the three-blade wind farming activity, supporting the hypothesis that some bats may be sensitive to repowering. Further research is necessary to confirm a possible sensitivity also for locally rare bats ( Miniopterus schreibersii and Plecotus sp.).

  18. Bats in a Mediterranean Mountainous Landscape: Does Wind Farm Repowering Induce Changes at Assemblage and Species Level?

    PubMed

    Ferri, Vincenzo; Battisti, Corrado; Soccini, Christiana

    2016-06-01

    We reported data on flying bat assemblages in a Mediterranean mountain landscape of central Italy on a 5-year time span (2005-2010) where a wind farm repowering has been carried out (from 2009, 17 three-blade turbines substituted an a priori set of one-blade turbines). In 4 yearly based surveys, we calculated a set of univariate metrics at species and assemblage level and also performing a diversity/dominance analysis (k-dominance plots) to evaluate temporal changes. Nine species of bats were present (eight classified at species level, one at genus level). Number of detected taxa, Margalef richness, and Shannon-Wiener diversity apparently decreased between 2005-2007 (one-blade turbine period) and 2009-2010 (three-blade turbines period). We showed a weak temporal turnover only between 2007 and 2009. In k-dominance plots, the occurrence curves of the years before the new wind farming activity (2005 and 2007) were lower when compared to the curves related to the 2009 and 2010 years, suggesting an apparent stress at assemblage level in the second period (2009 and 2010). Myotis emarginatus and Pipistrellus pipistrellus significantly changed their relative frequency during the three-blade wind farming activity, supporting the hypothesis that some bats may be sensitive to repowering. Further research is necessary to confirm a possible sensitivity also for locally rare bats (Miniopterus schreibersii and Plecotus sp.).

  19. An evidence for prompt electric field disturbance driven by changes in the solar wind density under northward IMF Bz condition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rout, Diptiranjan; Chakrabarty, D.; Sekar, R.; Reeves, G. D.; Ruohoniemi, J. M.; Pant, Tarun K.; Veenadhari, B.; Shiokawa, K.

    2016-05-01

    Before the onset of a geomagnetic storm on 22 January 2012 (Ap = 24), an enhancement in solar wind number density from 10/cm3 to 22/cm3 during 0440-0510 UT under northward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF Bz) condition is shown to have enhanced the high-latitude ionospheric convection and also caused variations in the geomagnetic field globally. Conspicuous changes in ΔX are observed not only at longitudinally separated low-latitude stations over Indian (prenoon), South American (midnight), Japanese (afternoon), Pacific (afternoon) and African (morning) sectors but also at latitudinally separated stations located over high and middle latitudes. The latitudinal variation of the amplitude of the ΔX during 0440-0510 UT is shown to be consistent with the characteristics of prompt penetration electric field disturbances. Most importantly, the density pulse event caused enhancements in the equatorial electrojet strength and the peak height of the F layer (hmF2) over the Indian dip equatorial sector. Further, the concomitant enhancements in electrojet current and F layer movement over the dip equator observed during this space weather event suggest a common driver of prompt electric field disturbance at this time. Such simultaneous variations are found to be absent during magnetically quiet days. In absence of significant change in solar wind velocity and magnetospheric substorm activity, these observations point toward perceptible prompt electric field disturbance over the dip equator driven by the overcompression of the magnetosphere by solar wind density enhancement.

  20. Bats in a Mediterranean Mountainous Landscape: Does Wind Farm Repowering Induce Changes at Assemblage and Species Level?

    PubMed

    Ferri, Vincenzo; Battisti, Corrado; Soccini, Christiana

    2016-06-01

    We reported data on flying bat assemblages in a Mediterranean mountain landscape of central Italy on a 5-year time span (2005-2010) where a wind farm repowering has been carried out (from 2009, 17 three-blade turbines substituted an a priori set of one-blade turbines). In 4 yearly based surveys, we calculated a set of univariate metrics at species and assemblage level and also performing a diversity/dominance analysis (k-dominance plots) to evaluate temporal changes. Nine species of bats were present (eight classified at species level, one at genus level). Number of detected taxa, Margalef richness, and Shannon-Wiener diversity apparently decreased between 2005-2007 (one-blade turbine period) and 2009-2010 (three-blade turbines period). We showed a weak temporal turnover only between 2007 and 2009. In k-dominance plots, the occurrence curves of the years before the new wind farming activity (2005 and 2007) were lower when compared to the curves related to the 2009 and 2010 years, suggesting an apparent stress at assemblage level in the second period (2009 and 2010). Myotis emarginatus and Pipistrellus pipistrellus significantly changed their relative frequency during the three-blade wind farming activity, supporting the hypothesis that some bats may be sensitive to repowering. Further research is necessary to confirm a possible sensitivity also for locally rare bats (Miniopterus schreibersii and Plecotus sp.). PMID:26952112

  1. The changing wind structure of the WR/LBV star in HD 5980

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koenigsberger, Gloria

    2013-10-01

    HD 5980 is an extraordinary system of massive stars that is located in the Small Magellanic Cloud. It contains an eclipsing binary {P=19.3 d} consisting of a luminous blue variable {LBV} and its Wolf-Rayet {WR} companion. The LBV underwent a major eruptive event in 1994 during which its bolometric luminosity increased by a factor of 5 and it is currently approaching its minimum state of activity. The primary objective of this proposal is to determine the wind velocity and mass-loss rate of the LBV in its current state. With these observations and our earlier observations and analyses, HD 5980 offers the unprecedented opportunity of deriving all the fundamental parameters of an LBV system throughout its activity cycle, parameters which are required in order to constrain the sources of the instabilities that lead to the eruptive phenomena. To accomplish these goals, we request 2 HST orbits to observe HD 5980 with STIS in order to obtain one set of FUV MAMA and CCD spectra at the eclipse, when the LBV occults its WR companion.The study of HD 5980 and the UV spectrum that we propose to acquire are relevant to a broad range of problems including wind-wind collision phenomena, the formation of circumstellar structures powered by stellar winds and the evolution of supernova progenitors.

  2. Analysis of Unit-Level Changes in Operations with Increased SPP Wind from EPRI/LCG Balancing Study

    SciTech Connect

    Hadley, Stanton W

    2012-01-01

    Wind power development in the United States is outpacing previous estimates for many regions, particularly those with good wind resources. The pace of wind power deployment may soon outstrip regional capabilities to provide transmission and integration services to achieve the most economic power system operation. Conversely, regions such as the Southeastern United States do not have good wind resources and will have difficulty meeting proposed federal Renewable Portfolio Standards with local supply. There is a growing need to explore innovative solutions for collaborating between regions to achieve the least cost solution for meeting such a renewable energy mandate. The Department of Energy funded the project 'Integrating Midwest Wind Energy into Southeast Electricity Markets' to be led by EPRI in coordination with the main authorities for the regions: SPP, Entergy, TVA, Southern Company and OPC. EPRI utilized several subcontractors for the project including LCG, the developers of the model UPLAN. The study aims to evaluate the operating cost benefits of coordination of scheduling and balancing for Southwest Power Pool (SPP) wind transfers to Southeastern Electric Reliability Council (SERC) Balancing Authorities (BAs). The primary objective of this project is to analyze the benefits of regional cooperation for integrating mid-western wind energy into southeast electricity markets. Scenarios were defined, modeled and investigated to address production variability and uncertainty and the associated balancing of large quantities of wind power in SPP and delivery to energy markets in the southern regions of the SERC. DOE funded Oak Ridge National Laboratory to provide additional support to the project, including a review of results and any side analysis that may provide additional insight. This report is a unit-by-unit analysis of changes in operations due to the different scenarios used in the overall study. It focuses on the change in capacity factors and the number

  3. Climate Change Influences on the Global Potential Distribution of the Mosquito Culex quinquefasciatus, Vector of West Nile Virus and Lymphatic Filariasis

    PubMed Central

    Elaagip, Arwa H.; Kenawy, Mohamed A.; Ayres, Constância F. J.; Peterson, A. Townsend; Soliman, Doaa E.

    2016-01-01

    Rapid emergence of most vector-borne diseases (VBDs) may be associated with range expansion of vector populations. Culex quinquefasciatus Say 1823 is a potential vector of West Nile virus, Saint Louis encephalitis virus, and lymphatic filariasis. We estimated the potential distribution of Cx. quinquefasciatus under both current and future climate conditions. The present potential distribution of Cx. quinquefasciatus showed high suitability across low-latitude parts of the world, reflecting the current distribution of the species. Suitable conditions were identified also in narrow zones of North Africa and Western Europe. Model transfers to future conditions showed a potential distribution similar to that under present-day conditions, although with higher suitability in southern Australia. Highest stability with changing climate was between 30°S and 30°N. The areas present high agreement among diverse climate models as regards distributional potential in the future, but differed in anticipating potential for distribution in North and Central Africa, southern Asia, central USA, and southeastern Europe. Highest disparity in model predictions across representative concentration pathways (RCPs) was in Saudi Arabia and Europe. The model predictions allow anticipation of changing distributional potential of the species in coming decades. PMID:27695107

  4. Incorporation of wind shear terms into the governing equations of aircraft motion

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Frost, W.; Bowles, R. U.

    1984-01-01

    Conventional analyses of aircraft motion in the atmosphere have neglected wind speed variability on the scales associated with many atmospheric phenomena such as thunderstorms, low-level jets, etc. These phemonena produce wind shears that have been determined as the probable cause in many recent commercial airline accidents. This paper derives the six degrees equations of motion or an aircraft incorporating the variable wind terms. The equations are presented in several coordinate systems (i.e., body coordinates, inertial coordinates, etc.). The wind shear terms, including the temporal and spatial gradients of the wind, appear differently in the various coordinate system. These terms are discussed. Also, the influence of wind shear on inputs to computing the aerodynamic coefficients such as the effects of wind velocity vector rotation on relative angular rates of rotation and on the time rate of change of angles of attack and side slip are addressed.

  5. Response of the Earth's Magnetosphere to Changes in the Solar Wind

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    McPherron, Robert L.; Weygand, James M.; Hsu, Tung-Shin

    2007-01-01

    The solar wind couples to the magnetosphere via dynamic pressure and electric field. Pressure establishes the size and shape of the system, while the electric field transfers energy, mass, and momentum to the magnetosphere. When the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) is antiparallel to the dayside magnetic field, magnetic reconnection connects the IMF to the dipole field. Solar wind transport of the newly opened field lines to the nightside creates an internal convection system. These open field lines must ultimately be closed by reconnection on the nightside. For many decades, it was thought that a magnetospheric substorm was the process for accomplishing this and that all magnetic activity was a consequence of substorms. It is now recognized that there are a variety of modes of response of the magnetosphere to the solar wind. In this paper, we briefly describe these modes and the conditions under which they occur. They include substorms, pseudo-breakups, poleward boundary intensifications (PBI), steady magnetospheric convection (SMC), sawtooth injection events, magnetic storms, high-intensity long-duration continuous AE activities (HILDCAAs), and storm-time activations. There are numerous explanations for these different phenomena, some of which do not involve magnetic reconnection. However, we speculate that it is possible to interpret each mode in terms of differences in the way magnetic reconnection occurs on the nightside.

  6. Off shore wind farms change the benthic pelagic coupling in the Belgian Part of the North Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vanaverbeke, Jan; Coates, Delphine; Braeckman, Ulrike; Soetaert, Karline; Moens, Tom

    2016-04-01

    Since Europe enforced renewable energy target figures upon its member states through the implementation of two main European Directives 11 2001/77/EC and 2009/28/EC, the development of offshore wind farms (OWF) has accelerated. Belgium installed OWFs on sandbanks, characterized by permeable sediments, low in organic matter content and a species-poor macrofaunal community with species occurring in low densities. A detailed monitoring campaign in the immediate vicinity of a wind turbine (1-200m), revealed a significant decrease in median grain size and permeability, coinciding with a 6-fold increase in organic matter content. The observed fining of the sediment is explained by an altered benthic-pelagic coupling in the area. The wind turbines are colonized by an abundant fouling community producing high amounts of detritus and faeces, a continuous additional source of organic matter. The changes in sediment composition, and the availability of additional organic matter resulted in drastic increase in macrofaunal densities (from 1390 ind m-2 to 18600 ind m-2), and a change from a species-poor community to a species-rich community dominated by the ecosystem engineer Lanice conchilega. Large densities of L. conchilega, as observed in our samples, are known to trap fine material from the water column, which can result in a further decrease of sediment permeability in the vicinity of the wind turbines. A preliminary experiment, where permeable sediments were subjected to artificial fining, showed a decreased penetration depth of advective water currents and a reduced trapping of diatoms by the sediment in finer sediments. Additionally, sediment community oxygen consumption rates, and efflux of NH4+ from the sediment, measured after a simulated phytoplankton bloom, decreased significantly when sediment permeability was reduced. We hypothesize that the combination of the altered macrofaunal community composition, together with the changes in the physical properties of the

  7. The influence of changes in wind patterns on the areal extension of surface cyanobacterial blooms in a large shallow lake in China.

    PubMed

    Wu, Tingfeng; Qin, Boqiang; Brookes, Justin D; Shi, Kun; Zhu, Guangwei; Zhu, Mengyuan; Yan, Wenming; Wang, Zhen

    2015-06-15

    It has been hypothesized that climate change will induce the areal extension of cyanobacterial blooms. However, this hypothesis lacks field-based observation. In the present study both long-term historical data and short-term field measurement were used to identify the importance of changes in wind patterns on the cyanobacterial bloom in Lake Taihu (China), a large, shallow, eutrophic lake located in a subtropical zone. The cyanobacterial bloom mainly composed of Microcystis spp. recurred frequently throughout the year. The regression analysis of multi-year satellite image data extracted by the Floating Algae Index revealed that both the annual mean monthly maximum cyanobacterial bloom area (MMCBA) increased year by year from 2000 to 2011, while the contemporaneous cyanobacterial biomass showed no significant change. However, the correlation analysis shows that MMCBA was negatively correlated with wind speed. Our short-term field measurements indicated that the influence of wind on surface cyanobacterial blooms is that the Chlorophyll-a (Chla) concentration is fully mixing throughout the water column when the wind speed exceed 7 m s(-1). At lower wind speeds, there was vertical stratification of Chla with high surface concentrations and an increase in bloom area. The regression analysis of wind speed indicates that the climate has changed over the last decade. Lake Taihu has become increasingly calm, with the decrease of strong wind frequency between 2000 and 2011, corresponding to the increase in the MMCBA over time. Therefore, we conclude that changes in wind patterns related to climate change have favored the increase of cyanobacterial blooms in Lake Taihu.

  8. Cloning vector

    DOEpatents

    Guilfoyle, R.A.; Smith, L.M.

    1994-12-27

    A vector comprising a filamentous phage sequence containing a first copy of filamentous phage gene X and other sequences necessary for the phage to propagate is disclosed. The vector also contains a second copy of filamentous phage gene X downstream from a promoter capable of promoting transcription in a bacterial host. In a preferred form of the present invention, the filamentous phage is M13 and the vector additionally includes a restriction endonuclease site located in such a manner as to substantially inactivate the second gene X when a DNA sequence is inserted into the restriction site. 2 figures.

  9. Cloning vector

    DOEpatents

    Guilfoyle, Richard A.; Smith, Lloyd M.

    1994-01-01

    A vector comprising a filamentous phage sequence containing a first copy of filamentous phage gene X and other sequences necessary for the phage to propagate is disclosed. The vector also contains a second copy of filamentous phage gene X downstream from a promoter capable of promoting transcription in a bacterial host. In a preferred form of the present invention, the filamentous phage is M13 and the vector additionally includes a restriction endonuclease site located in such a manner as to substantially inactivate the second gene X when a DNA sequence is inserted into the restriction site.

  10. Investigation of Wind Speed Persistence Over Marmara Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Özgür, Evren; Koçak, Kasım

    2016-04-01

    Persistence is a measure of continuity of a variable over a period of time at any location. This definition implies that wind speed persistence means a positive serial correlation in a time series. In literature, there are numerous methods for measuring wind speed persistence. In this study, wind speed persistence were obtained for 19 stations located in Marmara Region by using two different methods. Daily wind speed data, taken from Turkish State Meteorological Service, were used in the study. The observation period was taken to be 1965-2014 for all stations. The methods used in the study are directional statistical method and wind speed duration curves approach. In directional statistical method, individual dates of winds are defined as directional variables; then, directional mean and variance are calculated. Wind dates are being converted to angular values and these days are being considered as a unit vector which has direction θ. In polar coordinate, the measures of directional mean and variance have been expressed as a vector with direction θmean and magnitude r. The r value can be considered as a measure of persistence. The wind speed duration curve is simply the cumulative distribution function of the wind speed in a certain period of time. In other words, it is the graphical representation of wind speed and percentage of exceedence time for a predefined threshold wind speed value in the same graphic. As a threshold wind speed, lower quartile (q0.25) value of ranked wind speed data were selected. In application, total time period was divided into five subperiods and changes of persistence in wind speeds as far as subperiods were presented. Persistence can be used in different kinds of study areas such as control of forest fires, dispersion of air pollutants, calculation of wind energy potential, ventilation of a city, etc. The results of this analysis showed that the proposed methods can be used as an alternative approach to determine whether a given time

  11. Vector quantization

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gray, Robert M.

    1989-01-01

    During the past ten years Vector Quantization (VQ) has developed from a theoretical possibility promised by Shannon's source coding theorems into a powerful and competitive technique for speech and image coding and compression at medium to low bit rates. In this survey, the basic ideas behind the design of vector quantizers are sketched and some comments made on the state-of-the-art and current research efforts.

  12. Hot gas ingestion test results of a two-poster vectored thrust concept with flow visualization in the NASA Lewis 9- by 15-foot low speed wind tunnel

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johns, Albert L.; Neiner, George; Bencic, Timothy J.; Flood, Joseph D.; Amuedo, Kurt C.

    1990-01-01

    A 9.2 percent scale STOVL hot gas ingestion model was tested in the NASA Lewis 9 x 15-foot Low-Speed Wind Tunnel. Flow visualization from the Phase 1 test program, which evaluated the hot ingestion phenomena and control techniques, is covered. The Phase 2 test program evaluated the hot gas ingestion phenomena at higher temperatures and used a laser sheet to investigate the flow field. Hot gas ingestion levels were measured for the several forward nozzle splay configurations and with flow control/life improvement devices (LIDs) which reduced the hot gas ingestion. The test was conducted at full scale nozzle pressure ratios and inlet Mach numbers. Results are presented over a range of nozzle pressure ratios at a 10 kn headwind velocity. The Phase 2 program was conducted at exhaust nozzle temperatures up to 1460 R and utilized a sheet laser system for flow visualization of the model flow field in and out of ground effects. The results reported are for nozzle exhaust temperatures up to 1160 R and contain the compressor face pressure and temperature distortions, the total pressure recovery, the inlet temperature rise, and the environmental effects of the hot gas. The environmental effects include the ground plane contours, the model airframe heating, and the location of the ground flow separation.

  13. Rice stripe virus affects the viability of its vector offspring by changing developmental gene expression in embryos

    PubMed Central

    Li, Shuo; Wang, Shijuan; Wang, Xi; Li, Xiaoli; Zi, Jinyan; Ge, Shangshu; Cheng, Zhaobang; Zhou, Tong; Ji, Yinghua; Deng, Jinhua; Wong, Sek-Man; Zhou, Yijun

    2015-01-01

    Plant viruses may affect the viability and development process of their herbivore vectors. Small brown planthopper (SBPH) is main vector of Rice stripe virus (RSV), which causes serious rice stripe disease. Here, we reported the effects of RSV on SBPH offspring by crossing experiments between viruliferous and non-viruliferous strains. The life parameters of offspring from different cross combinations were compared. The hatchability of F1 progeny from viruliferous parents decreased significantly, and viruliferous rate was completely controlled by viruliferous maternal parent. To better elucidate the underlying biological mechanisms, the morphology of eggs, viral propagation and distribution in the eggs and expression profile of embryonic development genes were investigated. The results indicated that RSV replicated and accumulated in SBPH eggs resulting in developmental stunt or delay of partial eggs; in addition, RSV was only able to infect ovum but not sperm. According to the expression profile, expression of 13 developmental genes was regulated in the eggs from viruliferous parents, in which two important regulatory genes (Ls-Dorsal and Ls-CPO) were most significantly down-regulated. In general, RSV exerts an adverse effect on SBPH, which is unfavourable for the expansion of viruliferous populations. The viewpoint is also supported by systematic monitoring of SBPH viruliferous rate. PMID:25601039

  14. Retrospection of recent 30-year changes in the process of soil wind erosion in the Luanhe River Source Area of North China using Cesium-137.

    PubMed

    Chen, Zhi-fan; Zhao, Ye; Qiao, Jie-juan; Zhang, Qing; Zhu, Yu-en; Xu, Cui-hua

    2009-10-01

    The Luanhe River Source Area belongs to typical semi-arid, agro-pastoral ecotone of North China. It is very important for the prevention and treatment of soil erosion in North China to analyze and evaluate quantitatively the recent 30-year changes in the process of soil wind erosion in this area. Based on long field observations, soil samples from different depths in a representative wind-deposited soil profile in the Luanhe River Source Area were collected. Then the (137)Cs activity of soil samples from different depths in the soil profile was determined using a GEM series HPGe (high-purity germanium) coaxial detector system (ADCAM-100), and their soil properties, such as the soil particle fraction and so on, were analyzed. According to the detected (137)Cs activity of different depths, a continuous time sequence of the wind-deposited soil profile in the study area was established. Furthermore, through assumption on a soil relative wind erosion intensity index (SWEI), recent 30-year changes in the process of soil wind erosion in the Luanhe River Source Area were retrospected . The analysis results revealed that weaker soil wind erosion occurred in the study area from the 1970s to the early 1980s and from the late 1980s to the mid to late 1990s. Conversely, intense periods of soil wind erosion occurred in the mid-1980s and from the late 1990s to 2002.

  15. Ionospheric traveling convection vortices observed near the polar cleft - A triggered response to sudden changes in the solar wind

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Friis-Christensen, E.; Vennerstrom, S.; Mchenry, M. A.; Clauer, C. R.

    1988-01-01

    Analysis of 20-second resolution magnetometer data from an array of temporary stations operated around Sondre Stromfjord, Greenland, during the summer of 1986 shows the signatures of localized ionospheric traveling convection vortices. An example of an isolated event of this kind observed near 08 local time is presented in detail. This event consists of a twin vortex pattern of convection consistent with the presence of two field-aligned current filaments separated by about 600 km in the east-west direction. This system of currents is observed to move westward (tailward) past the array of stations at about 4 km/sec. The event is associated with relative quiet time ionospheric convection and occurs during an interval of northward IMF. It is, however, associated with a large fluctuation in both the Z and Y components of the IMF and with a large sudden decrease in the solar wind number density. The propagation of the system is inconsistent with existing models of FTE current systems, but nevertheless appears to be related to a readjustment of the magnetopause boundary to a sudden change in the solar wind dynamic pressure and/or to a change in reconnection brought about by a sudden reorientation of the IMF.

  16. The effects of changing winds and temperatures on the oceanography of the Ross Sea in the 21st century

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, Walker O.; Dinniman, Michael S.; Hofmann, Eileen E.; Klinck, John M.

    2014-03-01

    The Ross Sea is critically important in regulating Antarctic sea ice and is biologically productive, which makes changes in the region's physical environment of global concern. We examined the effects of projected changes in atmospheric temperatures and winds on aspects of the ocean circulation likely important to primary production using a high-resolution sea ice-ocean-ice shelf model of the Ross Sea. The modeled summer sea-ice concentrations decreased by 56% by 2050 and 78% by 2100. The duration of shallow mixed layers over the continental shelf increased by 8.5 and 19.2 days in 2050 and 2100, and the mean summer mixed layer depths decreased by 12 and 44%. These results suggest that the annual phytoplankton production in the future will increase and become more diatomaceous. Other components of the Ross Sea food web will likely be severely disrupted, creating significant but unpredictable impacts on the ocean's most pristine ecosystem.

  17. Impact of land use change on wind erosion and dust emission: scenarios from the central US

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    There will be significant changes in land cover and land use throughout the central United States in the coming years, particularly as a result of climate change, changes in US rangeland/farm policy, and increasing exploitation of land-intensive sustainable energy sources. The purpose of this study ...

  18. Decades-long changes of the interstellar wind through our solar system.

    PubMed

    Frisch, P C; Bzowski, M; Livadiotis, G; McComas, D J; Moebius, E; Mueller, H-R; Pryor, W R; Schwadron, N A; Sokół, J M; Vallerga, J V; Ajello, J M

    2013-09-01

    The journey of the Sun through the dynamically active local interstellar medium creates an evolving heliosphere environment. This motion drives a wind of interstellar material through the heliosphere that has been measured with Earth-orbiting and interplanetary spacecraft for 40 years. Recent results obtained by NASA's Interstellar Boundary Explorer mission during 2009-2010 suggest that neutral interstellar atoms flow into the solar system from a different direction than found previously. These prior measurements represent data collected from Ulysses and other spacecraft during 1992-2002 and a variety of older measurements acquired during 1972-1978. Consideration of all data types and their published results and uncertainties, over the three epochs of observations, indicates that the trend for the interstellar flow ecliptic longitude to increase linearly with time is statistically significant. PMID:24009386

  19. Changing Climate and Wind Patterns Revealed in Indiana's Fair Oaks Dunes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kilibarda, Z.

    2004-12-01

    Fair Oak Dunes (FOD) cover over 1100 square miles in north-central Indiana. Careful study of dune morphology reveals three types of dunes in regards to their size. The first order forms are compound parabolic dunes that reach over five miles in length and have the apex of parabola pointing in a southwesterly direction. The spacing between these dunes is three to five miles. The second order dune ridges are compound parabolic dunes that range in size from one to three miles in length with spacing of about one mile between the ridges. Both, the second order and the third order dunes have the apex of parabola pointing in northeasterly direction, opposite of the first order dunes. The third order dune ridges are simple parabolic dunes that reach up to half mile in length and are 25 to 30 feet tall in western part to over 45 feet in the eastern part of the FOD. All dunes are fixed by lush vegetation. Preliminary grain size analyses indicate that north part of FOD has coarser sand (0.283 mm) than southern part (0.197 mm), while eastern part (0.271 mm) is coarser than the western part (0.223 mm). This grain size distribution is in accordance with initial interpretation of dune morphology. Strong northeasterly winds associated with anticyclone were prevalent in early dune formation about 14,000 years ago near the end of last glacial. The finest particles were blown south and southwest from the source area which was north and east of the present dunes. Cyclonic southwesterly winds become dominant in Holocene and caused a reworking of the original large dunes into smaller forms as well as removal of some of the finest particles back to the original source to the northeast. Limited vertical dune profiles indicate that below the 5 feet of bioturbated surface layer are alternating light layers (3 to 5 inch thick) and dark laminae (1-2 inches thick). Dark laminae consist of quartz grains with `hairy' surfaces covered with reddish iron oxides or clays. They contain twice as much

  20. Fractional Factorial Experiment Designs to Minimize Configuration Changes in Wind Tunnel Testing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    DeLoach, Richard; Cler, Daniel L.; Graham, Albert B.

    2002-01-01

    This paper serves as a tutorial to introduce the wind tunnel research community to configuration experiment designs that can satisfy resource constraints in a configuration study involving several variables, without arbitrarily eliminating any of them from the experiment initially. The special case of a configuration study featuring variables at two levels is examined in detail. This is the type of study in which each configuration variable has two natural states - 'on or off', 'deployed or not deployed', 'low or high', and so forth. The basic principles are illustrated by results obtained in configuration studies conducted in the Langley National Transonic Facility and in the ViGYAN Low Speed Tunnel in Hampton, Virginia. The crucial role of interactions among configuration variables is highlighted with an illustration of difficulties that can be encountered when they are not properly taken into account.

  1. Hot gas ingestion test results of a two-poster vectored thrust concept with flow visualization in the NASA Lewis 9- x 15-foot low speed wind tunnel

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johns, Albert L.; Neiner, George; Bencic, Timothy J.; Flood, Joseph D.; Amuedo, Kurt C.; Strock, Thomas W.

    1990-01-01

    A 9.2 percent scale Short Takeoff and Vertical Landing (STOVL) hot gas ingestion model was designed and built by McDonnell Douglas Corporation (MCAIR) and tested in the Lewis Research Center 9 x 15 foot Low Speed Wind Tunnel (LSWT). Hot gas ingestion, the entrainment of heated engine exhaust into the inlet flow field, is a key development issure for advanced short takeoff and vertical landing aircraft. Flow visualization from the Phase 1 test program, which evaluated the hot ingestion phenomena and control techniques, is covered. The Phase 2 test program evaluated the hot gas ingestion phenomena at higher temperatures and used a laser sheet to investigate the flow field. Hot gas ingestion levels were measured for the several forward nozzle splay configurations and with flow control/life improvement devices (LIDs) which reduced the hot gas ingestion. The model support system had four degrees of freedom - pitch, roll, yaw, and vertical height variation. The model support system also provided heated high-pressure air for nozzle flow and a suction system exhaust for inlet flow. The test was conducted at full scale nozzle pressure ratios and inlet Mach numbers. Test and data analysis results from Phase 2 and flow visualization from both Phase 1 and 2 are documented. A description of the model and facility modifications is also provided. Headwind velocity was varied from 10 to 23 kn. Results are presented over a range of nozzle pressure ratios at a 10 kn headwind velocity. The Phase 2 program was conducted at exhaust nozzle temperatures up to 1460 R and utilized a sheet laser system for flow visualization of the model flow field in and out of ground effects. The results reported are for nozzle exhaust temperatures up to 1160 R. These results will contain the compressor face pressure and temperature distortions, the total pressure recovery, the inlet temperature rise, and the environmental effects of the hot gas. The environmental effects include the ground plane contours

  2. The National assessment of shoreline shange—A GIS compilation of vector shorelines and associated shoreline change data for the Pacific Northwest coast

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kratzmann, Meredith G.; Himmelstoss, Emily A.; Ruggiero, Peter; Thieler, E. Robert; Reid, David

    2013-01-01

    Sandy ocean beaches are a popular recreational destination and are often surrounded by communities that consist of valuable real estate. Development along sandy coastal areas is increasing despite the fact that coastal infrastructure may be repeatedly subjected to flooding and erosion. As a result, the demand for accurate information regarding past and present shoreline changes is increasing. Investigators with the U.S. Geological Survey's National Assessment of Shoreline Change Project have compiled a comprehensive database of digital vector shorelines and rates of shoreline change for the Pacific Northwest coast including the states of Washington and Oregon. No widely accepted standard for analyzing shoreline change currently exists. Current measurement and methods for calculating rates of change vary from study to study, precluding the combination of study results into statewide or regional assessments. The impetus behind the national assessment was to develop a standardized method that is consistent from coast to coast for measuring changes in shoreline position. The goal was to facilitate the process of periodically and systematically updating the measurements in an internally consistent manner. A detailed report on shoreline change for the Pacific Northwest coast that contains a discussion of the data presented here is available and cited in the Geospatial Data section of this report.

  3. Lentiviral vectors.

    PubMed

    Giry-Laterrière, Marc; Verhoeyen, Els; Salmon, Patrick

    2011-01-01

    Lentiviral vectors have evolved over the last decade as powerful, reliable, and safe tools for stable gene transfer in a wide variety of mammalian cells. Contrary to other vectors derived from oncoretroviruses, they allow for stable gene delivery into most nondividing primary cells. In particular, lentivectors (LVs) derived from HIV-1 have gradually evolved to display many desirable features aimed at increasing both their safety and their versatility. This is why lentiviral vectors are becoming the most useful and promising tools for genetic engineering, to generate cells that can be used for research, diagnosis, and therapy. This chapter describes protocols and guidelines, for production and titration of LVs, which can be implemented in a research laboratory setting, with an emphasis on standardization in order to improve transposability of results between laboratories. We also discuss latest designs in LV technology.

  4. Analysis of Age-Related Changes in Asian Facial Skeletons Using 3D Vector Mathematics on Picture Archiving and Communication System Computed Tomography

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Soo Jin; Kim, So Jung; Park, Jee Soo; Byun, Sung Wan

    2015-01-01

    Purpose There are marked differences in facial skeletal characteristics between Asian and Caucasian. However, ethnic differences in age-related facial skeletal changes have not yet been fully established. The aims of this study were to evaluate age-related changes in Asian midfacial skeletons and to explore ethnic differences in facial skeletal structures with aging between Caucasian and Asian. Materials and Methods The study included 108 men (aged 20-79 years) and 115 women (aged 20-81 years). Axial CT images with a gantry tilt angle of 0 were analyzed. We measured three-dimensional (3D) coordinates at each point with a pixel lens cursor in a picture archiving and communication system (PACS), and angles and widths between the points were calculated using 3D vector mathematics. We analyzed angular changes in 4 bony regions, including the glabellar, orbital, maxillary, and pyriform aperture regions, and changes in the orbital aperture width (distance from the posterior lacrimal crest to the frontozygomatic suture) and the pyriform width (between both upper margins of the pyriform aperture). Results All 4 midfacial angles in females and glabellar and maxillary angles in males showed statistically significant decreases with aging. On the other hand, the orbital and pyriform widths did not show statistically significant changes with aging. Conclusion The results of this study suggest that Asian midfacial skeletons may change continuously throughout life, and that there may be significant differences in the midfacial skeleton between both sexes and between ethnic groups. PMID:26256986

  5. Wind turbine

    DOEpatents

    Cheney, Jr., Marvin C.

    1982-01-01

    A wind turbine of the type having an airfoil blade (15) mounted on a flexible beam (20) and a pitch governor (55) which selectively, torsionally twists the flexible beam in response to wind turbine speed thereby setting blade pitch, is provided with a limiter (85) which restricts unwanted pitch change at operating speeds due to torsional creep of the flexible beam. The limiter allows twisting of the beam by the governor under excessive wind velocity conditions to orient the blades in stall pitch positions, thereby preventing overspeed operation of the turbine. In the preferred embodiment, the pitch governor comprises a pendulum (65,70) which responds to changing rotor speed by pivotal movement, the limiter comprising a resilient member (90) which engages an end of the pendulum to restrict further movement thereof, and in turn restrict beam creep and unwanted blade pitch misadjustment.

  6. Circular Conditional Autoregressive Modeling of Vector Fields.

    PubMed

    Modlin, Danny; Fuentes, Montse; Reich, Brian

    2012-02-01

    As hurricanes approach landfall, there are several hazards for which coastal populations must be prepared. Damaging winds, torrential rains, and tornadoes play havoc with both the coast and inland areas; but, the biggest seaside menace to life and property is the storm surge. Wind fields are used as the primary forcing for the numerical forecasts of the coastal ocean response to hurricane force winds, such as the height of the storm surge and the degree of coastal flooding. Unfortunately, developments in deterministic modeling of these forcings have been hindered by computational expenses. In this paper, we present a multivariate spatial model for vector fields, that we apply to hurricane winds. We parameterize the wind vector at each site in polar coordinates and specify a circular conditional autoregressive (CCAR) model for the vector direction, and a spatial CAR model for speed. We apply our framework for vector fields to hurricane surface wind fields for Hurricane Floyd of 1999 and compare our CCAR model to prior methods that decompose wind speed and direction into its N-S and W-E cardinal components. PMID:24353452

  7. Circular Conditional Autoregressive Modeling of Vector Fields.

    PubMed

    Modlin, Danny; Fuentes, Montse; Reich, Brian

    2012-02-01

    As hurricanes approach landfall, there are several hazards for which coastal populations must be prepared. Damaging winds, torrential rains, and tornadoes play havoc with both the coast and inland areas; but, the biggest seaside menace to life and property is the storm surge. Wind fields are used as the primary forcing for the numerical forecasts of the coastal ocean response to hurricane force winds, such as the height of the storm surge and the degree of coastal flooding. Unfortunately, developments in deterministic modeling of these forcings have been hindered by computational expenses. In this paper, we present a multivariate spatial model for vector fields, that we apply to hurricane winds. We parameterize the wind vector at each site in polar coordinates and specify a circular conditional autoregressive (CCAR) model for the vector direction, and a spatial CAR model for speed. We apply our framework for vector fields to hurricane surface wind fields for Hurricane Floyd of 1999 and compare our CCAR model to prior methods that decompose wind speed and direction into its N-S and W-E cardinal components.

  8. Circular Conditional Autoregressive Modeling of Vector Fields*

    PubMed Central

    Modlin, Danny; Fuentes, Montse; Reich, Brian

    2013-01-01

    As hurricanes approach landfall, there are several hazards for which coastal populations must be prepared. Damaging winds, torrential rains, and tornadoes play havoc with both the coast and inland areas; but, the biggest seaside menace to life and property is the storm surge. Wind fields are used as the primary forcing for the numerical forecasts of the coastal ocean response to hurricane force winds, such as the height of the storm surge and the degree of coastal flooding. Unfortunately, developments in deterministic modeling of these forcings have been hindered by computational expenses. In this paper, we present a multivariate spatial model for vector fields, that we apply to hurricane winds. We parameterize the wind vector at each site in polar coordinates and specify a circular conditional autoregressive (CCAR) model for the vector direction, and a spatial CAR model for speed. We apply our framework for vector fields to hurricane surface wind fields for Hurricane Floyd of 1999 and compare our CCAR model to prior methods that decompose wind speed and direction into its N-S and W-E cardinal components. PMID:24353452

  9. Three Dimensional Dynamic Model Based Wind Field Reconstruction from Lidar Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raach, Steffen; Schlipf, David; Haizmann, Florian; Cheng, Po Wen

    2014-06-01

    Using the inflowing horizontal and vertical wind shears for individual pitch controller is a promising method if blade bending measurements are not available. Due to the limited information provided by a lidar system the reconstruction of shears in real-time is a challenging task especially for the horizontal shear in the presence of changing wind direction. The internal model principle has shown to be a promising approach to estimate the shears and directions in 10 minutes averages with real measurement data. The static model based wind vector field reconstruction is extended in this work taking into account a dynamic reconstruction model based on Taylor's Frozen Turbulence Hypothesis. The presented method provides time series over several seconds of the wind speed, shears and direction, which can be directly used in advanced optimal preview control. Therefore, this work is an important step towards the application of preview individual blade pitch control under realistic wind conditions. The method is tested using a turbulent wind field and a detailed lidar simulator. For the simulation, the turbulent wind field structure is flowing towards the lidar system and is continuously misaligned with respect to the horizontal axis of the wind turbine. Taylor's Frozen Turbulence Hypothesis is taken into account to model the wind evolution. For the reconstruction, the structure is discretized into several stages where each stage is reduced to an effective wind speed, superposed with a linear horizontal and vertical wind shear. Previous lidar measurements are shifted using again Taylor's Hypothesis. The wind field reconstruction problem is then formulated as a nonlinear optimization problem, which minimizes the residual between the assumed wind model and the lidar measurements to obtain the misalignment angle and the effective wind speed and the wind shears for each stage. This method shows good results in reconstructing the wind characteristics of a three dimensional

  10. A review of thrust-vectoring schemes for fighter applications

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Berrier, B. L.; Re, R. J.

    1978-01-01

    This paper presents a review of thrust vectoring schemes for advanced fighter applications. Results are presented from wind tunnel and system integration studies on thrust vectoring nozzle concepts. Vectoring data are presented from wind tunnel tests of axisymmetric C-D (convergent-divergent) and nonaxisymmetric wedge, C-D, single ramp and USB (upper-surface blowing) nozzle concepts. Results from recent airframe/nozzle integration studies on the impact of thrust vectoring on weight, cooling and performance characteristics are discussed. This review indicates that the aircraft designer has, at his disposal, a wide range of thrust vectoring schemes which offer potential for added or improved aircraft capability.

  11. Comparative investigation of multiplane thrust vectoring nozzles

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Capone, F.; Smereczniak, P.; Spetnagel, D.; Thayer, E.

    1992-01-01

    The inflight aerodynamic performance of multiplane vectoring nozzles is critical to development of advanced aircraft and flight control systems utilizing thrust vectoring. To investigate vectoring nozzle performance, subscale models of two second-generation thrust vectoring nozzle concepts currently under development for advanced fighters were integrated into an axisymmetric test pod. Installed drag and vectoring performance characteristics of both concepts were experimentally determined in wind tunnel testing. CFD analyses were conducted to understand the impact of internal flow turning on thrust vectoring characteristics. Both nozzles exhibited drag comparable with current nonvectoring axisymmetric nozzles. During vectored-thrust operations, forces produced by external flow effects amounted to about 25 percent of the total force measured.

  12. Wind-driven nutrient pulses to the subsurface chlorophyll maximum in seasonally stratified shelf seas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Williams, Charlotte; Sharples, Jonathan; Mahaffey, Claire; Rippeth, Tom

    2013-10-01

    seas are an important global carbon sink. In the seasonal thermocline, the subsurface chlorophyll maximum (SCM) supports almost half of summer shelf production. Using observations from the seasonally stratified Celtic Sea (June 2010), we identify wind-driven inertial oscillations as a mechanism for supplying the SCM with the nitrate needed for phytoplankton growth and carbon fixation. Analysis of wind, currents, and turbulent dissipation indicates that inertial oscillations are triggered by a change in the wind velocity. High magnitude, short-lived dissipation spikes occur when the shear and wind vectors align, increasing the daily nitrate flux to the SCM by a factor of at least 17. However, it is likely that the sampling resolution of turbulent dissipation does not always capture the maximum wind-driven peak in mixing. We estimate that wind-driven inertial oscillations supply the SCM with ~33% to 71% of the nitrate required for new production in shelf seas during summer.

  13. A device for rapid determination of thermophysical properties of phase-change wind-tunnel models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Creel, T. R., Jr.

    1976-01-01

    An experimental method for direct measurement of the thermophysical properties of wind tunnel heat transfer models was developed. The technique consists of placing the model under a bank of high intensity, radiant heaters so that the fast opening water cooled shutters, which isolate the heater bank from the model, allow a step-input heat rate to be applied. Measurements of the heat transfer rate coupled with a surface-temperature time history of the same material are sufficient to determine the material thermophysical properties. An infrared thermometer is used to measure model surface temperature and a slug calorimeter provides heat transfer rate information. The output from the infrared thermometer and calorimeter is then fed into an analog-to-digital converter which provides digitized data to a computer. This computer then calculates combined thermophysical properties and a teleprinter prints out all the data. Thus, results are available within 7 minutes of test initiation as opposed to the weeks or months required using prior techniques.

  14. Earthward directed CMEs seen in large-scale coronal magnetic field changes, SOHO LASCO coronagraph and solar wind

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Yan; Luhmann, Janet G.; Mulligan, T.; Hoeksema, J. Todd; Arge, C. Nick; Plunkett, S. P.; Cyr, O. C. St.

    2001-11-01

    One picture of coronal mass ejection (CME) initiation relates these events to the expansion into space of previously closed coronal magnetic fields, often part of the helmet streamer belt. The work described here makes use of the potential field source surface model based on updated synoptic photospheric field maps to study the large-scale coronal field changes. We isolate those field lines that change from closed to open configurations (newly opening field lines) by comparing potential field source surface models from adjacent magnetograph observations, wherein the same starting foot points on the photosphere are used. If there are some newly opening field lines between the times of two maps, we assume there was a possibility for CME occurrence(s) between these times. In particular, if there are newly opening field lines near the solar disk center, an earthward directed CME may have been generated. Monitoring the coronal magnetic field behavior can in principle reinforce (or not) days in advance predictions of magnetic storms based on Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) Large-Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO) halo CMEs. Moreover, the coronal field over the visible hemisphere contains information about the possible geoeffectiveness of a particular CME because it shows the approximate orientation and location of the active arcades. By comparing halo CMEs with the newly opening field lines, the solar wind measurements from Wind and ACE spacecraft and the Dst index, we show that, like soft X-ray sigmoids, disappearing filaments, and Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (EIT) waves on the disk of the Sun, magnetograph observation-based coronal field models may provide additional information on the likelihood of CME effects at the Earth.

  15. Tomato Infection by Whitefly-Transmitted Circulative and Non-Circulative Viruses Induce Contrasting Changes in Plant Volatiles and Vector Behaviour.

    PubMed

    Fereres, Alberto; Peñaflor, Maria Fernanda G V; Favaro, Carla F; Azevedo, Kamila E X; Landi, Carolina H; Maluta, Nathalie K P; Bento, José Mauricio S; Lopes, Joao R S

    2016-08-11

    Virus infection frequently modifies plant phenotypes, leading to changes in behaviour and performance of their insect vectors in a way that transmission is enhanced, although this may not always be the case. Here, we investigated Bemisia tabaci response to tomato plants infected by Tomato chlorosis virus (ToCV), a non-circulative-transmitted crinivirus, and Tomato severe rugose virus (ToSRV), a circulative-transmitted begomovirus. Moreover, we examined the role of visual and olfactory cues in host plant selection by both viruliferous and non-viruliferous B. tabaci. Visual cues alone were assessed as targets for whitefly landing by placing leaves underneath a Plexiglas plate. A dual-choice arena was used to assess whitefly response to virus-infected and mock-inoculated tomato leaves under light and dark conditions. Thereafter, we tested the whitefly response to volatiles using an active air-flow Y-tube olfactometer, and chemically characterized the blends using gas chromatography coupled to mass spectrometry. Visual stimuli tests showed that whiteflies, irrespective of their infectious status, always preferred to land on virus-infected rather than on mock-inoculated leaves. Furthermore, whiteflies had no preference for either virus-infected or mock-inoculated leaves under dark conditions, but preferred virus-infected leaves in the presence of light. ToSRV-infection promoted a sharp decline in the concentration of some tomato volatiles, while an increase in the emission of some terpenes after ToCV infection was found. ToSRV-viruliferous whiteflies preferred volatiles emitted from mock-inoculated plants, a conducive behaviour to enhance virus spread, while volatiles from ToCV-infected plants were avoided by non-viruliferous whiteflies, a behaviour that is likely detrimental to the secondary spread of the virus. In conclusion, the circulative persistent begomovirus, ToSRV, seems to have evolved together with its vector B. tabaci to optimise its own spread. However

  16. Tomato Infection by Whitefly-Transmitted Circulative and Non-Circulative Viruses Induce Contrasting Changes in Plant Volatiles and Vector Behaviour.

    PubMed

    Fereres, Alberto; Peñaflor, Maria Fernanda G V; Favaro, Carla F; Azevedo, Kamila E X; Landi, Carolina H; Maluta, Nathalie K P; Bento, José Mauricio S; Lopes, Joao R S

    2016-01-01

    Virus infection frequently modifies plant phenotypes, leading to changes in behaviour and performance of their insect vectors in a way that transmission is enhanced, although this may not always be the case. Here, we investigated Bemisia tabaci response to tomato plants infected by Tomato chlorosis virus (ToCV), a non-circulative-transmitted crinivirus, and Tomato severe rugose virus (ToSRV), a circulative-transmitted begomovirus. Moreover, we examined the role of visual and olfactory cues in host plant selection by both viruliferous and non-viruliferous B. tabaci. Visual cues alone were assessed as targets for whitefly landing by placing leaves underneath a Plexiglas plate. A dual-choice arena was used to assess whitefly response to virus-infected and mock-inoculated tomato leaves under light and dark conditions. Thereafter, we tested the whitefly response to volatiles using an active air-flow Y-tube olfactometer, and chemically characterized the blends using gas chromatography coupled to mass spectrometry. Visual stimuli tests showed that whiteflies, irrespective of their infectious status, always preferred to land on virus-infected rather than on mock-inoculated leaves. Furthermore, whiteflies had no preference for either virus-infected or mock-inoculated leaves under dark conditions, but preferred virus-infected leaves in the presence of light. ToSRV-infection promoted a sharp decline in the concentration of some tomato volatiles, while an increase in the emission of some terpenes after ToCV infection was found. ToSRV-viruliferous whiteflies preferred volatiles emitted from mock-inoculated plants, a conducive behaviour to enhance virus spread, while volatiles from ToCV-infected plants were avoided by non-viruliferous whiteflies, a behaviour that is likely detrimental to the secondary spread of the virus. In conclusion, the circulative persistent begomovirus, ToSRV, seems to have evolved together with its vector B. tabaci to optimise its own spread. However

  17. Tomato Infection by Whitefly-Transmitted Circulative and Non-Circulative Viruses Induce Contrasting Changes in Plant Volatiles and Vector Behaviour

    PubMed Central

    Fereres, Alberto; Peñaflor, Maria Fernanda G. V.; Favaro, Carla F.; Azevedo, Kamila E. X.; Landi, Carolina H.; Maluta, Nathalie K. P.; Bento, José Mauricio S.; Lopes, Joao R.S.

    2016-01-01

    Virus infection frequently modifies plant phenotypes, leading to changes in behaviour and performance of their insect vectors in a way that transmission is enhanced, although this may not always be the case. Here, we investigated Bemisia tabaci response to tomato plants infected by Tomato chlorosis virus (ToCV), a non-circulative-transmitted crinivirus, and Tomato severe rugose virus (ToSRV), a circulative-transmitted begomovirus. Moreover, we examined the role of visual and olfactory cues in host plant selection by both viruliferous and non-viruliferous B. tabaci. Visual cues alone were assessed as targets for whitefly landing by placing leaves underneath a Plexiglas plate. A dual-choice arena was used to assess whitefly response to virus-infected and mock-inoculated tomato leaves under light and dark conditions. Thereafter, we tested the whitefly response to volatiles using an active air-flow Y-tube olfactometer, and chemically characterized the blends using gas chromatography coupled to mass spectrometry. Visual stimuli tests showed that whiteflies, irrespective of their infectious status, always preferred to land on virus-infected rather than on mock-inoculated leaves. Furthermore, whiteflies had no preference for either virus-infected or mock-inoculated leaves under dark conditions, but preferred virus-infected leaves in the presence of light. ToSRV-infection promoted a sharp decline in the concentration of some tomato volatiles, while an increase in the emission of some terpenes after ToCV infection was found. ToSRV-viruliferous whiteflies preferred volatiles emitted from mock-inoculated plants, a conducive behaviour to enhance virus spread, while volatiles from ToCV-infected plants were avoided by non-viruliferous whiteflies, a behaviour that is likely detrimental to the secondary spread of the virus. In conclusion, the circulative persistent begomovirus, ToSRV, seems to have evolved together with its vector B. tabaci to optimise its own spread. However

  18. Method for determining thermo-physical properties of specimens. [photographic recording of changes in thin film phase-change temperature indicating material in wind tunnel

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jones, R. A. (Inventor)

    1974-01-01

    The square root of the product of thermophysical properties q, c and k, where p is density, c is specific heat and k is thermal conductivity, is determined directly on a test specimen such as a wind tunnel model. The test specimen and a reference specimen of known specific heat are positioned at a given distance from a heat source. The specimens are provided with a coating, such as a phase change coating, to visually indicate that a given temperature was reached. A shutter interposed between the heat source and the specimens is opened and a motion picture camera is actuated to provide a time record of the heating step. The temperature of the reference specimen is recorded as a function of time. The heat rate to which both the test and reference specimens were subjected is determined from the temperature time response of the reference specimen by the conventional thin-skin calorimeter equation.

  19. Potential Effects of Climate Change on Ecological Interaction Outcomes Between Two Disease-Vector Mosquitoes: A Mesocosm Experimental Study.

    PubMed

    Leonel, B F; Koroiva, R; Hamada, N; Ferreira-Keppler, R L; Roque, F O

    2015-09-01

    The objective of this study was to experimentally assess the effects of different climate change scenarios on the outcomes of interactions between Aedes aegypti (L.) and Culex quinquefasciatus (Say) (Diptera: Culicidae) larvae. The experimental design maintained a constant density of specimens while the proportion of the species in different experimental climate change scenarios varied. Our results indicate that survival of the two species was not affected, but larval development and pupation times decreased under elevated atmospheric CO(2) concentration and high air temperature. In climate change scenarios with both species together, the survival of Ae. aegypti increased and its larval development time decreased with increasing density of Cx. quinquefasciatus. This may be attributed to the effects of intraspecific competition being more significant than interspecific competition in Ae. aegypti. Our study also reveals that climatic changes may affect the patterns of interactions between Cx. quinquefasciatus and Ae. aegypti. Alterations in climatic conditions changed the response of context-dependent competition, indicating the importance of studies on how ecological interactions will be affected by projected future climatic change.

  20. Potential Effects of Climate Change on Ecological Interaction Outcomes Between Two Disease-Vector Mosquitoes: A Mesocosm Experimental Study.

    PubMed

    Leonel, B F; Koroiva, R; Hamada, N; Ferreira-Keppler, R L; Roque, F O

    2015-09-01

    The objective of this study was to experimentally assess the effects of different climate change scenarios on the outcomes of interactions between Aedes aegypti (L.) and Culex quinquefasciatus (Say) (Diptera: Culicidae) larvae. The experimental design maintained a constant density of specimens while the proportion of the species in different experimental climate change scenarios varied. Our results indicate that survival of the two species was not affected, but larval development and pupation times decreased under elevated atmospheric CO(2) concentration and high air temperature. In climate change scenarios with both species together, the survival of Ae. aegypti increased and its larval development time decreased with increasing density of Cx. quinquefasciatus. This may be attributed to the effects of intraspecific competition being more significant than interspecific competition in Ae. aegypti. Our study also reveals that climatic changes may affect the patterns of interactions between Cx. quinquefasciatus and Ae. aegypti. Alterations in climatic conditions changed the response of context-dependent competition, indicating the importance of studies on how ecological interactions will be affected by projected future climatic change. PMID:26336208

  1. Holocene changes in a park-forest vegetation mosaic in the Wind River Range, Wyoming

    SciTech Connect

    Lynch, E.A. )

    1994-06-01

    The modern mod-elevation vegetation of the Rocky Mountains is a mosaic of conifer forests and open parks dominated by sagebrush (Artemisia spp.), grasses, and other herbs. It is not known how this pattern originated or how sensitive the balance between forest and park is to disturbance. Using pollen from sediments of five small ponds in Fish Creek Park, WY (elev. 2700 m), I reconstructed the last 8000 yrs of changes in the park-forest mosaic in an are about 16 km[sup 2]. Surface samples collected from 52 ponds in the Fish Creek Park area and from forest and park sites in Wyoming and Colorado indicate that park and forest pollen assemblages can be distinguished using multivariate statistical methods and conifer:herb pollen ratios. Fossil pollen from the five sediment cores shows that the distribution of the two vegetation types on the landscape has changed through the Holocene, and that the changes in vegetation are gradual. Past changes from park to forest have apparently occurred much more slowly than changes from forest to park, suggesting that areas subjected to recent clearcutting may remain unforested for centuries.

  2. Three-Dimensional Wind Profiling of Offshore Wind Energy Areas With Airborne Doppler Lidar

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Koch, Grady J.; Beyon, Jeffrey Y.; Cowen, Larry J.; Kavaya, Michael J.; Grant, Michael S.

    2014-01-01

    A technique has been developed for imaging the wind field over offshore areas being considered for wind farming. This is accomplished with an eye-safe 2-micrometer wavelength coherent Doppler lidar installed in an aircraft. By raster scanning the aircraft over the wind energy area (WEA), a three-dimensional map of the wind vector can be made. This technique was evaluated in 11 flights over the Virginia and Maryland offshore WEAs. Heights above the ocean surface planned for wind turbines are shown to be within the marine boundary layer, and the wind vector is seen to show variation across the geographical area of interest at turbine heights.

  3. Electrical wind force-driven and dislocation-templated amorphization in phase-change nanowires.

    PubMed

    Nam, Sung-Wook; Chung, Hee-Suk; Lo, Yu Chieh; Qi, Liang; Li, Ju; Lu, Ye; Johnson, A T Charlie; Jung, Yeonwoong; Nukala, Pavan; Agarwal, Ritesh

    2012-06-22

    Phase-change materials undergo rapid and reversible crystalline-to-amorphous structural transformation and are being used for nonvolatile memory devices. However, the transformation mechanism remains poorly understood. We have studied the effect of electrical pulses on the crystalline-to-amorphous phase change in a single-crystalline Ge(2)Sb(2)Te(5) (GST) nanowire memory device by in situ transmission electron microscopy. We show that electrical pulses produce dislocations in crystalline GST, which become mobile and glide in the direction of hole-carrier motion. The continuous increase in the density of dislocations moving unidirectionally in the material leads to dislocation jamming, which eventually induces the crystalline-to-amorphous phase change with a sharp interface spanning the entire nanowire cross section. The dislocation-templated amorphization explains the large on/off resistance ratio of the device.

  4. Changes in the High-Latitude Topside Ionospheric Vertical Electron-Density Profiles in Response to Solar-Wind Perturbations During Large Magnetic Storms

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Benson, Robert F.; Fainberg, Joseph; Osherovich, Vladimir; Truhlik, Vladimir; Wang, Yongli; Arbacher, Becca

    2011-01-01

    The latest results from an investigation to establish links between solar-wind and topside-ionospheric parameters will be presented including a case where high-latitude topside electron-density Ne(h) profiles indicated dramatic rapid changes in the scale height during the main phase of a large magnetic storm (Dst < -200 nT). These scale-height changes suggest a large heat input to the topside ionosphere at this time. The topside profiles were derived from ISIS-1 digital ionograms obtained from the NASA Space Physics Data Facility (SPDF) Coordinated Data Analysis Web (CDA Web). Solar-wind data obtained from the NASA OMNIWeb database indicated that the magnetic storm was due to a magnetic cloud. This event is one of several large magnetic storms being investigated during the interval from 1965 to 1984 when both solar-wind and digital topside ionograms, from either Alouette-2, ISIS-1, or ISIS-2, are potentially available.

  5. Winds of Change in New York City's Public Schools: Can Chancellor Macchiarola Set a New Course?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Seeley, David S.

    1979-01-01

    Many New Yorkers have given up on the public schools and on the chance for reform. However, the school system's new chancellor, Frank Macchiarola, seems to have both the necessary commitment to change and the administrative skills. Interim evaluations have been made of his performance, with the following results: (1) Staff Performance--good work…

  6. The Winds of Change in Russian Higher Education: Is the East Moving West?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Timoshenko, Konstantin

    2011-01-01

    In the last 30 years, major changes have taken place in the public sector worldwide under the rubric of New Public Management [NPM]. The education sector is perhaps one of the key areas drawing an intense interest and discussion in the wake of NPM. The Russian State seems to be no longer an exception to this global trend. In line with this, the…

  7. Winds of Change: Latinos in the Heartland and the Nation. JSRI Statistical Brief No. 5.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Aponte, Robert; Siles, Marcelo E.

    This statistical brief provides a follow-up assessment of the changing demographic and economic landscape of the Midwest between 1980 and 1990. Latino population growth in the Midwest during the 1980s was modest, but since the region's other groups experienced minimal or negative growth, Latino growth accounted for over half the Midwest's total…

  8. Winds of Change in the English Language--Air of Peril for Native Speakers?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Paradowski, Michal B.

    2008-01-01

    English today is one of the most hybrid and rapidly changing languages in the world. New users of the language are not just passively absorbing, but actively shaping it, breeding a variety of regional Englishes, as well as pidgins and English-lexified creoles. Also, as in an increasing number of countries English is becoming an element of core…

  9. Structural changes in trend parameters of the MLT winds based on wind measurements at Obninsk (55°N, 37°E) and Collm (52°N, 15°E)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Merzlyakov, E. G.; Jacobi, Ch.; Portnyagin, Yu. I.; Solovjova, T. V.

    2009-10-01

    Recent analysis of the long-term behavior of different geophysical data has demonstrated that trend parameters can change during a period of observation. Sophisticated general methods for an objective analysis of structural changes in linear trends have been developed during the last 10 years. Such methods are applied for an analysis of changes in trend parameters of the mesosphere/lower thermosphere wind observed over Obninsk (55°N, 37°E) from 1964 to 2007 and Collm (52°N, 15°E) from 1979 to 2008, respectively. We found that trend models with breakpoints are generally preferred against straight lines. At Obninsk, there are break-years in trends of the winter prevailing winds close to 1977, when a climatic regime shift was observed. The break-years in trends of the semidiurnal tides for both stations are close to years of possible changes in stratospheric ozone. Correlations of the Obninsk and Collm winds with atmospheric indices are also considered.

  10. Vectors, Change of Basis and Matrix Representation: Onto-Semiotic Approach in the Analysis of Creating Meaning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Montiel, Mariana; Wilhelmi, Miguel R.; Vidakovic, Draga; Elstak, Iwan

    2012-01-01

    In a previous study, the onto-semiotic approach was employed to analyse the mathematical notion of different coordinate systems, as well as some situations and university students' actions related to these coordinate systems in the context of multivariate calculus. This study approaches different coordinate systems through the process of change of…

  11. Microenvironmental changes and plant responses due to shading and wind deflectio by solar collectors: a simulation study

    SciTech Connect

    Patten, D.T.; Smith, S.D.

    1980-11-01

    The potential microenvironmental changes at the ground surface beneath arrays of solar mirrors or collectors were investigated in a Sonoran Desert ecosystem, utilizing a simulated array of plywood panels. The simulated array consisted of twelve panels designed to exhibit a similar shape, tilt, and spacing as is expected to occur in heliostat fields of solar thermal facilities or in arrays of photovoltaic collectors. The experimental design in the study was based on comparing two microsites in the simulated array versus the open desert. Presence of the panels results in up to a 90% reduction in solar radiance during the midday period, with microsites beneath each panel receiving about 14% of the open desert irradiance over the whole day. The array of panels also effected a 14% to 60% reduction in monthly accumulated wind flow in the center of the array. The combination of reduced radiant energy input and wind deflection resulted in significantly reduced surface and soil temperatures in the heavily shaded sites, and moderately reduced surface and soil temperatures in the sunny microsites. Plant responses to a cooler, moister environment were: (1) higher diversity and survival of winter spring annuals; (2) proliferation of C/sub 3/ annuals in the summer flora versus the more typical C/sub 4/ annuals in the open; (3) greater new shoot production of shrubs; (4) greater gross photosynthesis and stomatal conductance of the two shrub species in the warm dry season, but not in the cool wet season; (5) increased leaf retention and reduction in the typical leaf polymorphic character into the dry season of the drought deciduous Ambrosia deltoidea; and, (6) invasion of the heavily shaded areas of the array by a pseudo-riparian species, Baccharis sarothroides. (WHK)

  12. The national assessment of shoreline change: a GIS compilation of vector cliff edges and associated cliff erosion data for the California coast

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hapke, Cheryl; Reid, David; Borrelli, Mark

    2007-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey has generated a comprehensive data clearinghouse of digital vector cliff edges and associated rates of cliff retreat along the open-ocean California coast. These data, which are presented herein, were compiled as part of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Assessment of Shoreline Change Project. Cliff erosion is a chronic problem along many coastlines of the United States. As coastal populations continue to grow and community infrastructures are threatened by erosion, there is increased demand for accurate information including rates and trends of coastal cliff retreat. There is also a critical need for these data to be consistent from one region to another. One objective of this work is to a develop standard, repeatable methodology for mapping and analyzing cliff edge retreat so that periodic, systematic, and internally consistent updates of cliff edge position and associated rates of erosion can be made at a national scale. This data compilation for open-ocean cliff edges for the California coast is a separate, yet related study to Hapke and others, 2006 documenting shoreline change along sandy shorelines of the California coast, which is itself one in a series that includes the Gulf of Mexico and the Southeast Atlantic coast (Morton and others, 2004; Morton and Miller, 2005). Future reports and data compilations will include coverage of the Northeast U.S., the Great Lakes, Hawaii and Alaska. Cliff edge change is determined by comparing the positions of one historical cliff edge digitized from maps with a modern cliff edge derived from topographic LIDAR (light detection and ranging) surveys. Historical cliff edges for the California coast represent the 1920s-1930s time-period; the most recent cliff edge was delineated using data collected between 1998 and 2002. End-point rate calculations were used to evaluate rates of erosion between the two cliff edges. Please refer to our full report on cliff edge erosion along the California

  13. Assessing climate change impacts on the near-term stability of the wind energy resource over the United States.

    PubMed

    Pryor, S C; Barthelmie, R J

    2011-05-17

    The energy sector comprises approximately two-thirds of global total greenhouse gas emissions. For this and other reasons, renewable energy resources including wind power are being increasingly harnessed to provide electricity generation potential with negligible emissions of carbon dioxide. The wind energy resource is naturally a function of the climate system because the "fuel" is the incident wind speed and thus is determined by the atmospheric circulation. Some recent articles have reported historical declines in measured near-surface wind speeds, leading some to question the continued viability of the wind energy industry. Here we briefly articulate the challenges inherent in accurately quantifying and attributing historical tendencies and making robust projections of likely future wind resources. We then analyze simulations from the current generation of regional climate models and show, at least for the next 50 years, the wind resource in the regions of greatest wind energy penetration will not move beyond the historical envelope of variability. Thus this work suggests that the wind energy industry can, and will, continue to make a contribution to electricity provision in these regions for at least the next several decades.

  14. How do cosmic rays change their energy in the solar wind?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jones, F. C.

    1983-01-01

    The diffusion-convection (modulation) equation is derived directly from the Boltzmann equation on the basis of a minimum number of assumptions concerning the scattering process, among which are: (1) that the scattered particles undergo no energy change, and (2) that isotropy is an equilibrium state. It is noted that, in the event that the background plasma contains a magnetic field and the flow speeds of the plasma and scattering centers are different, additional terms arise that will modify the equations. If, moreover, the scatterers have individual motions relative to their average flow, the second-order Fermi acceleration term will appear.

  15. The Effects of Abrupt Wind Shears in the Solar Wind on the Earth's Magnetosphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Borovsky, J.; Boudouridis, A.; Birn, J.; Denton, M.

    2014-12-01

    The solar wind is filled sudden velocity shears. The shears take the form of vorticity layers co-located with current sheets. The velocity vector makes its change in a few seconds. For shear layers with vector velocity changes greater than 50 km/s, an average of 12 shear layers pass the Earth per day. Global magnetospheric MHD simulations with four different simulation codes have been performed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) to examine the reaction of the Earth to the solar-wind velocity shears. All 4 simulation codes predict comet-like disconnections of the magnetotail, the magnetosheath, and the bow shock on the flanks as a shear layer passes the Earth. The simulation codes also predict sudden changes in the cross-polar-cap potential and ionospheric Joule dissipation as the shear layers pass the Earth. A data-analysis research effort is underway to look for signatures of the Earth's reaction to abrupt wind shear events; preliminary results of that effort will be discussed.

  16. Projected changes to South Atlantic boundary currents and confluence region in the CMIP5 models: the role of wind and deep ocean changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pontes, G. M.; Gupta, A. Sen; Taschetto, A. S.

    2016-09-01

    The South Atlantic (SA) circulation plays an important role in the oceanic teleconnections from the Indian, Pacific and Southern oceans to the North Atlantic, with inter-hemispheric exchanges of heat and salt. Here, we show that the large-scale features of the SA circulation are projected to change significantly under ‘business as usual’ greenhouse gas increases. Based on 19 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 there is a projected weakening in the upper ocean interior transport (<1000 m) between 15° and ˜32°S, largely related to a weakening of the wind stress curl over this region. The reduction in ocean interior circulation is largely compensated by a decrease in the net deep southward ocean transport (>1000 m), mainly related to a decrease in the North Atlantic deep water transport. Between 30° and 40°S, there is a consistent projected intensification in the Brazil current strength of about 40% (30%-58% interquartile range) primarily compensated by an intensification of the upper interior circulation across the Indo-Atlantic basin. The Brazil-Malvinas confluence is projected to shift southwards, driven by a weakening of the Malvinas current. Such a change could have important implications for the distribution of marine species in the southwestern SA in the future.

  17. Vector-borne diseases.

    PubMed

    Gubler, D J

    2009-08-01

    Vector-borne diseases have been the scourge of man and animals since the beginning of time. Historically, these are the diseases that caused the great plagues such as the 'Black Death' in Europe in the 14th Century and the epidemics of yellow fever that plagued the development of the New World. Others, such as Nagana, contributed to the lack of development in Africa for many years. At the turn of the 20th Century, vector-borne diseases were among the most serious public and animal health problems in the world. For the most part, these diseases were controlled by the middle of the 20th Century through the application of knowledge about their natural history along with the judicious use of DDT (dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane) and other residual insecticides to interrupt the transmission cycle between arthropod and vertebrate host. However, this success initiated a period of complacency in the 1960s and 1970s, which resulted in the redirection of resources away from prevention and control of vector-borne diseases. The 1970s was also a time in which there were major changes to public health policy. Global trends, combined with changes in animal husbandry, urbanisation, modern transportation and globalisation, have resulted in a global re-emergence of epidemic vector-borne diseases affecting both humans and animals over the past 30 years. PMID:20128467

  18. Vector-borne diseases.

    PubMed

    Gubler, D J

    2009-08-01

    Vector-borne diseases have been the scourge of man and animals since the beginning of time. Historically, these are the diseases that caused the great plagues such as the 'Black Death' in Europe in the 14th Century and the epidemics of yellow fever that plagued the development of the New World. Others, such as Nagana, contributed to the lack of development in Africa for many years. At the turn of the 20th Century, vector-borne diseases were among the most serious public and animal health problems in the world. For the most part, these diseases were controlled by the middle of the 20th Century through the application of knowledge about their natural history along with the judicious use of DDT (dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane) and other residual insecticides to interrupt the transmission cycle between arthropod and vertebrate host. However, this success initiated a period of complacency in the 1960s and 1970s, which resulted in the redirection of resources away from prevention and control of vector-borne diseases. The 1970s was also a time in which there were major changes to public health policy. Global trends, combined with changes in animal husbandry, urbanisation, modern transportation and globalisation, have resulted in a global re-emergence of epidemic vector-borne diseases affecting both humans and animals over the past 30 years.

  19. Satellite-derived sea surface height and sea surface wind data fusion for spilled oil tracking

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kozai, K.

    Data fusion is defined as a framework with the purpose of obtaining information of 'greater quality'. Within the framework tools are expressed for the alliance of data originating from different sources. The exact definition of 'greater quality' is stated in this context as more reliable prediction for the trajectory of spilled oil from two different microwave sensor data, namely ERS-2 altimeter and ADEOS/NSCAT scatterometer data. An example is presented in the case of trajectory of bow section and associated oil upwelling from the sunken tanker Nakhodka occurred from January to June in 1997 in Japan Sea. Spill distance is defined as a horizontal distance from the oil upwelling point to the location of sunken Nakhodka and a spill direction is defined as an angle made by the geographic north and the line corresponding to the spill distance. Geostrophic current vectors are derived from ERS-2 altimeter and wind-induced current vectors are derived from ADEOS/NSCAT scatterometer data. These two different satellite-derived vectors are 'fused' together in the surface current model to estimate and evaluate the trajectory of bow section and associated oil upwelling from the sunken tanker Nakhodka. Result of comparison between the estimated and the observed trajectory of bow section indicates that the estimated trajectory is agreed well with the observed one in the first half of drift period, while in the latter half of drift period the estimated trajectory is not agreed well with the observed one, which may be attributable to changes of wind directions within 24 hours from the satellite overpasses. Moreover the comparison between spill vector and 'fused' surface current vector shows the good correspondence in terms of direction when in situ wind accelerates the surface current vector, while the comparison between the twos shows the bad correspondence when the temporal changes of wind vector occurs.

  20. New techniques in 3D scalar and vector field visualization

    SciTech Connect

    Max, N.; Crawfis, R.; Becker, B.

    1993-05-05

    At Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) we have recently developed several techniques for volume visualization of scalar and vector fields, all of which use back-to-front compositing. The first renders volume density clouds by compositing polyhedral volume cells or their faces. The second is a ``splatting`` scheme which composites textures used to reconstruct the scalar or vector fields. One version calculates the necessary texture values in software, and another takes advantage of hardware texture mapping. The next technique renders contour surface polygons using semi-transparent textures, which adjust appropriately when the surfaces deform in a flow, or change topology. The final one renders the ``flow volume`` of smoke or dye tracer swept out by a fluid flowing through a small generating polygon. All of these techniques are applied to a climate model data set, to visualize cloud density and wind velocity.

  1. Rapid COMMUNICATION Mean winds in the mesopause region observed by MF radars at 31° and 45°N

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hocke, K.; Igarashi, K.

    1998-07-01

    Mean winds in the mesopause region (78-98 km) were observed in northern (45°N) and southern (31°N) Japan by MF radars. The change of the horizontal wind vector with height is illustrated by means of hodographs for solstices and equinoxes. The observations in southern Japan show a stronger meridional wind than in northern Japan. At the December solstice 1996 the meridional wind over southern Japan changes from a northward wind of around 15 ms at 78 km to a southward wind of 10 ms at 98 km height. At the March and September equinoxes the southward wind increases from around 0 to 15 ms in this region. The observed meridional wind is significantly stronger than the meridional wind of the empirical HWM93 wind model, but is in agreement with previous observations by the MU radar in Kyoto (35°N). The temporal behaviour of the mean wind hodographs is shown for the three annual cycles from 1994-1997 over southern Japan.

  2. Pollen, wind and fire: how to investigate genetic effects of disturbance-induced change in forest trees.

    PubMed

    Bacles, Cecile F E

    2014-01-01

    ) take advantage of the distinctive features of the fire-adapted wind-pollinated Aleppo pine Pinus halepensis (Fig. 1) to provide an elegant example of best practice. Thanks to long-term monitoring of the study site, a natural stand in Israel, Shohami and Nathan witnessed the direct impact of habitat disturbance, here taking the shape of fire, on conspecific and forest densities and compared pre- and postdisturbance mating patterns estimated from cones of different ages sampled on the same surviving maternal individuals (Fig. 2). This excellent study design is all the more strong that Shohami and Nathan took further analytical steps to account for confounding variables, such as historical population genetic structure and possible interannual variation in wind conditions, thus giving high credibility to their findings of unequivocal fire-induced alteration of mating patterns in P. halepensis. Most notably, the authors found, at the pollen pool level, a disruption of local genetic structure which, furthermore, they were able to attribute explicitly to enhanced pollen-mediated gene immigration into the low-density fire-disturbed stand. This cleverly designed research provides a model approach to be followed if we are to advance our understanding of disturbance-induced dispersal and genetic change in forest trees.

  3. Wind speed forecasting for wind energy applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Hong

    With more wind energy being integrated into our grid systems, forecasting wind energy has become a necessity for all market participants. Recognizing the market demands, a physical approach to site-specific hub-height wind speed forecasting system has been developed. This system is driven by the outputs from the Canadian Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model. A simple interpolation approach benchmarks the forecasting accuracy inherited from GEM. Local, site specific winds are affected on a local scale by a variety of factors including representation of the land surface and local boundary-layer process over heterogeneous terrain which have been a continuing challenge in NWP models like GEM with typical horizontal resolution of order 15-km. In order to resolve these small scale effects, a wind energy industry standard model, WAsP, is coupled with GEM to improve the forecast. Coupling the WAsP model with GEM improves the overall forecasts, but remains unsatisfactory for forecasting winds with abrupt surface condition changes. Subsequently in this study, a new coupler that uses a 2-D RANS model of boundary-layer flow over surface condition changes with improved physics has been developed to further improve the forecasts when winds coming from a water surface to land experience abrupt changes in surface conditions. It has been demonstrated that using vertically averaged wind speeds to represent geostrophic winds for input into the micro-scale models could reduce forecast errors. The hub-height wind speed forecasts could be further improved using a linear MOS approach. The forecasting system has been evaluated, using a wind energy standard evaluation matrix, against data from an 80-m mast located near the north shore of Lake Erie. Coupling with GEM-LAM and a power conversion model using a theoretical power curve have also been investigated. For hub-height wind speeds GEM appears to perform better with a 15-Ian grid than the high resolution GEM-2.5Ian version at the

  4. Solar Wind Magnetic Fields

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, E. J.

    1995-01-01

    The magnetic fields originate as coronal fields that are converted into space by the supersonic, infinitely conducting, solar wind. On average, the sun's rotation causes the field to wind up and form an Archimedes Spiral. However, the field direction changes almost continuously on a variety of scales and the irregular nature of these changes is often interpreted as evidence that the solar wind flow is turbulent.

  5. Accuracy of land use change detection using support vector machine and maximum likelihood techniques for open-cast coal mining areas.

    PubMed

    Karan, Shivesh Kishore; Samadder, Sukha Ranjan

    2016-08-01

    One objective of the present study was to evaluate the performance of support vector machine (SVM)-based image classification technique with the maximum likelihood classification (MLC) technique for a rapidly changing landscape of an open-cast mine. The other objective was to assess the change in land use pattern due to coal mining from 2006 to 2016. Assessing the change in land use pattern accurately is important for the development and monitoring of coalfields in conjunction with sustainable development. For the present study, Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM) data of 2006 and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI)/Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS) data of 2016 of a part of Jharia Coalfield, Dhanbad, India, were used. The SVM classification technique provided greater overall classification accuracy when compared to the MLC technique in classifying heterogeneous landscape with limited training dataset. SVM exceeded MLC in handling a difficult challenge of classifying features having near similar reflectance on the mean signature plot, an improvement of over 11 % was observed in classification of built-up area, and an improvement of 24 % was observed in classification of surface water using SVM; similarly, the SVM technique improved the overall land use classification accuracy by almost 6 and 3 % for Landsat 5 and Landsat 8 images, respectively. Results indicated that land degradation increased significantly from 2006 to 2016 in the study area. This study will help in quantifying the changes and can also serve as a basis for further decision support system studies aiding a variety of purposes such as planning and management of mines and environmental impact assessment. PMID:27461425

  6. Accuracy of land use change detection using support vector machine and maximum likelihood techniques for open-cast coal mining areas.

    PubMed

    Karan, Shivesh Kishore; Samadder, Sukha Ranjan

    2016-08-01

    One objective of the present study was to evaluate the performance of support vector machine (SVM)-based image classification technique with the maximum likelihood classification (MLC) technique for a rapidly changing landscape of an open-cast mine. The other objective was to assess the change in land use pattern due to coal mining from 2006 to 2016. Assessing the change in land use pattern accurately is important for the development and monitoring of coalfields in conjunction with sustainable development. For the present study, Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM) data of 2006 and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI)/Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS) data of 2016 of a part of Jharia Coalfield, Dhanbad, India, were used. The SVM classification technique provided greater overall classification accuracy when compared to the MLC technique in classifying heterogeneous landscape with limited training dataset. SVM exceeded MLC in handling a difficult challenge of classifying features having near similar reflectance on the mean signature plot, an improvement of over 11 % was observed in classification of built-up area, and an improvement of 24 % was observed in classification of surface water using SVM; similarly, the SVM technique improved the overall land use classification accuracy by almost 6 and 3 % for Landsat 5 and Landsat 8 images, respectively. Results indicated that land degradation increased significantly from 2006 to 2016 in the study area. This study will help in quantifying the changes and can also serve as a basis for further decision support system studies aiding a variety of purposes such as planning and management of mines and environmental impact assessment.

  7. ELECTRONIC BIVANE WIND DIRECTION INDICATOR

    DOEpatents

    Moses, H.

    1961-05-01

    An apparatus is described for determining and recording three dimensional wind vectors. The apparatus comprises a rotatably mounted azimuthal wind component sensing head and an elevational wind component sensing head mounted to the azimuthal head and adapted to rotate therewith in the azimuthal plane and independently in the elevational plane. A heat source and thermocouples disposed thereabout are mounted within each of the sensing heads, the thermocouples providing electrical signals responsive to the temperature differential created by the passage of air through the sensing tuhes. The thermocouple signals are applied to drive mechanisms which position the sensing heads to a null wind position. Recording means are provided responsive to positional data from the drive mechanisms which are a measurement of the three dimensional wind vectors.

  8. Wind-wave climate change and increasing erosion in the outer Río de la Plata, Argentina

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Codignotto, Jorge O.; Dragani, Walter C.; Martin, Paula B.; Simionato, Claudia G.; Medina, Rubén A.; Alonso, Guadalupe

    2012-04-01

    The coastal area of Samborombón Bay ends in a short cliff which, during the last decades, has been undergoing an increased retrogression of approximately 8.2 m decade-1. The aim of this paper is to investigate whether this accelerated erosion can be related to an apparent wind-wave climate change, which has been recently reported for the Río de la Plata region. A numerical study with SWAN wave model for the period 1971-2005 drives to positive trends in the frequency of occurrence and heights of waves propagating from the E and ESE. Particularly, the number of cases of high waves from those directions displays a significant increment. In addition, previous papers have reported an increment of the frequency, height and duration of the storm surges in the Río de la Plata, so as a rise of the mean sea level in the region. It is concluded that the combination of those three factors acting together constitutes a powerful and effective mechanism which is likely responsible for the observed increasing erosion in Samborombón Bay.

  9. Optimization of satellite coverage in observing cause and effect changes in the ionosphere, magnetosphere, and solar wind. Master's thesis

    SciTech Connect

    Loveless, M.J.

    1993-06-01

    Disturbances in the ionosphere sometimes cause adverse effects to communications systems, power grids, etc. on the earth. Currently, very little, if any, lead time is given to warn of an impending problem. If a forecast could be made of ionospheric occurrences, some lead time may be given to appropriate agencies and equipment may be saved. Most changes that occur in the ionosphere are a result of interaction of energy, currents, etc. between the magnetosphere and/or solar wind. Before a forecast can be made, however, improvement of ionospheric models currently in use need to be made. The models currently depict features in various regions of the ionosphere but not always where these features are actually observed. So an improvement to the model is needed to create an accurate baseline condition, or in other words an accurate depiction of the current ionosphere. Models could be improved by inputting real-time data from the ionosphere into the model. This data would come from satellites and/or ground-based stations.

  10. Effects of sea state on offshore wind resourcing in Florida

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Collier, Cristina

    Offshore resource assessment relies on estimating wind speeds at turbine hub height using observations typically made at substantially lower height. The methods used to adjust from observed wind speeds to hub height can impact resource estimation. The importance of directional sea state is examined, both as seasonal averages and as a function of the diurnal cycle. A General Electric 3.6 MW offshore turbine is used as a model for a power production. Including sea state increases or decreases seasonally averaged power production by roughly 1%, which is found to be an economically significant change. These changes occur because the sea state modifies the wind shear (vector wind difference between the buoy height and the moving surface) and therefore the extrapolation from the observation to hub height is affected. These seemingly small differences in capacity can alter profits by millions of dollars depending upon the size of the farm and fluctuations in price per kWh throughout the year. A 2% change in capacity factor can lead to a 10 million dollar difference from total kWh produced from a wind farm of 100 3.6MW turbines. These economic impacts can be a deciding factor in determining whether a resource is viable for development. Modification of power output due to sea states are shown for seasonal and diurnal time scales. Three regions are examined herein: West Florida, East Florida, and Nantucket Sound. The average capacity after sea state is included suggests areas around Florida could provide substantial amounts of wind power throughout three-fourths of the calendar year. At certain times of day winter average produced capacity factors in West Florida can be up to 45% more than in summer when sea state is included. Nantucket Sound capacity factors are calculated for comparison to a region near a planned United States offshore wind farm. This study provides evidence to suggest including sea state in offshore wind resource assessment causes economically significant

  11. Wind farm and solar park effects on plant-soil carbon cycling: uncertain impacts of changes in ground-level microclimate.

    PubMed

    Armstrong, Alona; Waldron, Susan; Whitaker, Jeanette; Ostle, Nicholas J

    2014-06-01

    Global energy demand is increasing as greenhouse gas driven climate change progresses, making renewable energy sources critical to future sustainable power provision. Land-based wind and solar electricity generation technologies are rapidly expanding, yet our understanding of their operational effects on biological carbon cycling in hosting ecosystems is limited. Wind turbines and photovoltaic panels can significantly change local ground-level climate by a magnitude that could affect the fundamental plant-soil processes that govern carbon dynamics. We believe that understanding the possible effects of changes in ground-level microclimates on these phenomena is crucial to reducing uncertainty of the true renewable energy carbon cost and to maximize beneficial effects. In this Opinions article, we examine the potential for the microclimatic effects of these land-based renewable energy sources to alter plant-soil carbon cycling, hypothesize likely effects and identify critical knowledge gaps for future carbon research.

  12. Wind farm and solar park effects on plant–soil carbon cycling: uncertain impacts of changes in ground-level microclimate

    PubMed Central

    Armstrong, Alona; Waldron, Susan; Whitaker, Jeanette; Ostle, Nicholas J

    2014-01-01

    Global energy demand is increasing as greenhouse gas driven climate change progresses, making renewable energy sources critical to future sustainable power provision. Land-based wind and solar electricity generation technologies are rapidly expanding, yet our understanding of their operational effects on biological carbon cycling in hosting ecosystems is limited. Wind turbines and photovoltaic panels can significantly change local ground-level climate by a magnitude that could affect the fundamental plant–soil processes that govern carbon dynamics. We believe that understanding the possible effects of changes in ground-level microclimates on these phenomena is crucial to reducing uncertainty of the true renewable energy carbon cost and to maximize beneficial effects. In this Opinions article, we examine the potential for the microclimatic effects of these land-based renewable energy sources to alter plant–soil carbon cycling, hypothesize likely effects and identify critical knowledge gaps for future carbon research. PMID:24132939

  13. Wind farm and solar park effects on plant-soil carbon cycling: uncertain impacts of changes in ground-level microclimate.

    PubMed

    Armstrong, Alona; Waldron, Susan; Whitaker, Jeanette; Ostle, Nicholas J

    2014-06-01

    Global energy demand is increasing as greenhouse gas driven climate change progresses, making renewable energy sources critical to future sustainable power provision. Land-based wind and solar electricity generation technologies are rapidly expanding, yet our understanding of their operational effects on biological carbon cycling in hosting ecosystems is limited. Wind turbines and photovoltaic panels can significantly change local ground-level climate by a magnitude that could affect the fundamental plant-soil processes that govern carbon dynamics. We believe that understanding the possible effects of changes in ground-level microclimates on these phenomena is crucial to reducing uncertainty of the true renewable energy carbon cost and to maximize beneficial effects. In this Opinions article, we examine the potential for the microclimatic effects of these land-based renewable energy sources to alter plant-soil carbon cycling, hypothesize likely effects and identify critical knowledge gaps for future carbon research. PMID:24132939

  14. Roles of surface wind, NDVI and snow cover in the recent changes in Asian dust storm occurrence frequency

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Jong-Jae; Kim, Cheol-Hee

    2012-11-01

    This paper describes the recent variations in dust outbreak during the period from 1996 to 2007 over the Asian dust source regions. The Asian dust source regions were divided into four sub-regions; S1, Taklamakan; S2, Gobi; S3, Inner Mongolia-Manchuria; and S4, Loess, and the WMO SYNOP observation and satellite data were employed to analyze the features of recently changed dust outbreak frequencies (DOFs). There was no particular variation in region S1, but the recent spatiotemporal variations in DOFs over S2-S4 were well characterized by a severe and widespread increase in 2001-2002, and significant decreasing in 2003-2004 over the most source regions, with a steadily increasing trend again during 2005-2007. Seasonal features showed that the highest DOFs occurred in March-April before 2002, but was delayed by a month toward April-May during the next five years because of the shift in the month of highest strong wind-speed frequencies (SWFs). A secondary peak of DOF was also found, occurring in October-November since the year 2000. Over all the source regions, the primary controlling factor for explaining the spatiotemporal DOF patterns was the SWF, with a pattern correlation coefficient (PCC) of 0.66-0.76. Other secondary controlling factors varied from region to region. For example, the DOFs observed in region S2-S3 showed relatively greater sensitivity to the snow-cover fraction, and region S4 showed a better correlation with the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) than the other regions. Other recent significant changes in DOFs over the Asian dust source regions and their causes are also discussed in this study.

  15. An oilspill trajectory analysis model with a variable wind deflection angle

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Samuels, W.B.; Huang, N.E.; Amstutz, D.E.

    1982-01-01

    The oilspill trajectory movement algorithm consists of a vector sum of the surface drift component due to wind and the surface current component. In the U.S. Geological Survey oilspill trajectory analysis model, the surface drift component is assumed to be 3.5% of the wind speed and is rotated 20 degrees clockwise to account for Coriolis effects in the Northern Hemisphere. Field and laboratory data suggest, however, that the deflection angle of the surface drift current can be highly variable. An empirical formula, based on field observations and theoretical arguments relating wind speed to deflection angle, was used to calculate a new deflection angle at each time step in the model. Comparisons of oilspill contact probabilities to coastal areas calculated for constant and variable deflection angles showed that the model is insensitive to this changing angle at low wind speeds. At high wind speeds, some statistically significant differences in contact probabilities did appear. ?? 1982.

  16. DSCOVR High Time Resolution Solar Wind Measurements

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Szabo, Adam

    2012-01-01

    The Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR), previously known as Triana, spacecraft is expected to be launched in late 2014. It will carry a fluxgate magnetometer, Faraday Cup solar wind detector and a top-hat electron electrostatic analyzer. The Faraday Cup will provide an unprecedented 10 vectors/sec time resolution measurement of the solar wind proton and alpha reduced distribution functions. Coupled with the 40 vector/sec vector magnetometer measurements, the identification of specific wave modes in the solar wind will be possible for the first time. The science objectives and data products of the mission will be discussed.

  17. Controlling Compressor Vane Flow Vectoring Angles at Transonic Speeds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Munson, Matthew; Rempfer, Dietmar; Williams, David; Acharya, Mukund

    2003-11-01

    The ability to control flow separation angles from compressor inlet guide vanes with a Coanda-type actuator is demonstrated using both wind tunnel experiments and finite element simulations. Vectoring angles up to 40 degrees from the uncontrolled baseline state were measured with helium schlieren visualization at transonic Mach numbers ranging from 0.1 to 0.6, and with airfoil chord Reynolds numbers ranging from 89,000 to 710,000. The magnitude of the vectoring angle is shown to depend upon the geometry of the trailing edge, and actuator slot size, and the momentum flux coefficient. Under certain conditions the blowing has no effect on the vectoring angle indicating that the Coanda effect is not present. DNS simulations with the finite element method investigated the effects of geometry changes and external flow. Continuous control of the vectoring angle is demonstrated, which has important implications for application to rotating machinery. The technique is shown to reduce the stall flow coefficient by 15 percent in an axial flow compressor.

  18. Amazonian malaria: asymptomatic human reservoirs, diagnostic challenges, environmentally driven changes in mosquito vector populations, and the mandate for sustainable control strategies.

    PubMed

    da Silva-Nunes, Mônica; Moreno, Marta; Conn, Jan E; Gamboa, Dionicia; Abeles, Shira; Vinetz, Joseph M; Ferreira, Marcelo U

    2012-03-01

    Across the Americas and the Caribbean, nearly 561,000 slide-confirmed malaria infections were reported officially in 2008. The nine Amazonian countries accounted for 89% of these infections; Brazil and Peru alone contributed 56% and 7% of them, respectively. Local populations of the relatively neglected parasite Plasmodium vivax, which currently accounts for 77% of the regional malaria burden, are extremely diverse genetically and geographically structured. At a time when malaria elimination is placed on the public health agenda of several endemic countries, it remains unclear why malaria proved so difficult to control in areas of relatively low levels of transmission such as the Amazon Basin. We hypothesize that asymptomatic parasite carriage and massive environmental changes that affect vector abundance and behavior are major contributors to malaria transmission in epidemiologically diverse areas across the Amazon Basin. Here we review available data supporting this hypothesis and discuss their implications for current and future malaria intervention policies in the region. Given that locally generated scientific evidence is urgently required to support malaria control interventions in Amazonia, we briefly describe the aims of our current field-oriented malaria research in rural villages and gold-mining enclaves in Peru and a recently opened agricultural settlement in Brazil. PMID:22015425

  19. Amazonian malaria: Asymptomatic human reservoirs, diagnostic challenges, environmentally-driven changes in mosquito vector populations, and the mandate for sustainable control strategies

    PubMed Central

    da Silva-Nunes, Mônica; Moreno, Marta; Conn, Jan E.; Gamboa, Dionicia; Abeles, Shira; Vinetz, Joseph M.; Ferreira, Marcelo U.

    2012-01-01

    Across the Americas and the Caribbean, nearly 561,000 slide-confirmed malaria infections were reported officially in 2008. The nine Amazonian countries accounted for 89% of these infections; Brazil and Peru alone contributed 56% and 7% of them, respectively. Local populations of the relatively neglected parasite P. vivax, which currently accounts for 77% of the regional malaria burden, are extremely diverse genetically and geographically structured. At a time when malaria elimination is placed on the public health agenda of several endemic countries, it remains unclear why malaria proved so difficult to control in areas of relatively low levels of transmission such as the Amazon Basin. We hypothesize that asymptomatic parasite carriage and massive environmental changes that affect vector abundance and behavior are major contributors to malaria transmission in epidemiologically diverse areas across the Amazon Basin. Here we review available data supporting this hypothesis and discuss their implications for current and future malaria intervention policies in the region. Given that locally generated scientific evidence is urgently required to support malaria control interventions in Amazonia, we briefly describe the aims of our current field-oriented malaria research in rural villages and gold-mining enclaves in Peru and a recently opened agricultural settlement in Brazil. PMID:22015425

  20. Amazonian malaria: asymptomatic human reservoirs, diagnostic challenges, environmentally driven changes in mosquito vector populations, and the mandate for sustainable control strategies.

    PubMed

    da Silva-Nunes, Mônica; Moreno, Marta; Conn, Jan E; Gamboa, Dionicia; Abeles, Shira; Vinetz, Joseph M; Ferreira, Marcelo U

    2012-03-01

    Across the Americas and the Caribbean, nearly 561,000 slide-confirmed malaria infections were reported officially in 2008. The nine Amazonian countries accounted for 89% of these infections; Brazil and Peru alone contributed 56% and 7% of them, respectively. Local populations of the relatively neglected parasite Plasmodium vivax, which currently accounts for 77% of the regional malaria burden, are extremely diverse genetically and geographically structured. At a time when malaria elimination is placed on the public health agenda of several endemic countries, it remains unclear why malaria proved so difficult to control in areas of relatively low levels of transmission such as the Amazon Basin. We hypothesize that asymptomatic parasite carriage and massive environmental changes that affect vector abundance and behavior are major contributors to malaria transmission in epidemiologically diverse areas across the Amazon Basin. Here we review available data supporting this hypothesis and discuss their implications for current and future malaria intervention policies in the region. Given that locally generated scientific evidence is urgently required to support malaria control interventions in Amazonia, we briefly describe the aims of our current field-oriented malaria research in rural villages and gold-mining enclaves in Peru and a recently opened agricultural settlement in Brazil.

  1. Wind-driven changes of surface current, temperature, and chlorophyll observed by satellites north of New Guinea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Radenac, Marie-Hélène; Léger, Fabien; Messié, Monique; Dutrieux, Pierre; Menkes, Christophe; Eldin, Gérard

    2016-04-01

    Satellite observations of wind, sea level and derived currents, sea surface temperature (SST), and chlorophyll are used to expand our understanding of the physical and biological variability of the ocean surface north of New Guinea. Based on scarce cruise and mooring data, previous studies differentiated a trade wind situation (austral winter) when the New Guinea Coastal Current (NGCC) flows northwestward and a northwest monsoon situation (austral summer) when a coastal upwelling develops and the NGCC reverses. This circulation pattern is confirmed by satellite observations, except in Vitiaz Strait where the surface northwestward flow persists. We find that intraseasonal and seasonal time scale variations explain most of the variance north of New Guinea. SST and chlorophyll variabilities are mainly driven by two processes: penetration of Solomon Sea waters and coastal upwelling. In the trade wind situation, the NGCC transports cold Solomon Sea waters through Vitiaz Strait in a narrow vein hugging the coast. Coastal upwelling is generated in westerly wind situations (westerly wind event, northwest monsoon). Highly productive coastal waters are advected toward the equator and, during some westerly wind events, toward the eastern part of the warm pool. During El Niño, coastal upwelling events and northward penetration of Solomon Sea waters combine to influence SST and chlorophyll anomalies.

  2. First Observations of Simultaneous Inter-hemispheric Conjugate High-latitude Thermospheric Winds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anderson, C.; Yiu, I.; Kellerman, A. C.; Kosch, M.; Makarevitch, R.; Aruliah, A. L.; Conde, M. G.; Davies, T.; Dyson, P. L.

    2009-12-01

    We report the first observations of simultaneous high-latitude inter-hemispheric F-region neutral wind fields by combining the 630 nm optical measurements from two scanning Doppler imagers (SDI) and three Fabry-Perot interferometers (FPI) for a period exceeding 5 hours. From the southern hemisphere, a SDI at Mawson and a FPI at Davis, both in Antarctica, were geomagnetically mapped onto the northern hemisphere. These data were combined in the northern hemisphere with a SDI at Longyearbyen, Svalbard, and two FPIs near Kiruna in Sweden and Sodankyla in Finland. Geomagnetic conditions were moderate and steady although the IMF Bz did change polarity several times. There was good agreement between the conjugate 630 nm optical intensities and wind vectors. All wind field vectors were overlaid onto the northern SuperDARN ion convection contours. The agreement between neutral and ion flow was remarkably good throughout the study interval, even down to meso-scale spatial size.

  3. Wind erosion simulation along with the Qinghai-Tibet Railway and its response to the climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jiang, Y.; Gao, Y.

    2015-12-01

    Wind erosion is one of the major processes of desertification. It has been widely analyzed using field observation, wind tunnel experiments and wind erosion models at arid and semi-arid agricultural areas in North China. It was seldom studies in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) yet because of the cold environment and fewer human activities over there. However, the desertification has been reported intensified and expanded in recent decades over central and eastern QTP [Dong et al., 2009]. Land surface models are useful tool in land processes simulation, and underwent several generations with various progresses in geophysical and geochemical processes. For instance, the new generation community Noah land surface model with multi-parameterization options (Noah-MP) has been worldwide implied and performs well in simulating the land surface conditions in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. However, none of the land surface models involves the wind erosion process. In this study, a wind erosion model -- Wind Erosion Prediction System (WEPS) is coupled with the Noah-MP. According to Li et al. (2015), the majority land cover type over the QTP is grassland, meadow and bare land. Thus the concerning of crop and cultivated lands are not included in the coupling. The coupled model is called Noah-MPES in which Noah-MP serves as the basic system providing the climate and land surface variables for wind erosion calculation. The coupled Noah-MPES was implemented and tested at five stations near the Qinghai-Tibet Railway: BJ, Anduo, D66, from GAME-Tibet, Tanggula and Xidatan, where Noah-MP simulation shows well performance in soil temperature and soil water content at upper soil levels. The wind erosion will be validated by comparing to the results from 137Cs tracer method [Yan et al., 2001]. Wind erosion along the Qinghai-Tibet Railway will be simulated and investigated then. Reference: Dong, Z., G. Hu, C. Yan, W. Wang, and J. Lu (2009), Aeolian desertification and its causes in the Zoige

  4. The interacting winds of Eta Carinae: Observed forbidden line changes and the Forbidden Blue(-Shifted) Crab

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gull, Theodore R.; Madura, Thomas; Corcoran, Michael F.; Teodoro, Mairan; Richardson, Noel; Hamaguchi, Kenji; Groh, Jose H.; Hillier, Desmond John; Damineli, Augusto; Weigelt, Gerd

    2015-01-01

    The massive binary, Eta Carinae (EC), produces such massive winds that strong forbidden line emission of singly- and doubly-ionized iron traces wind-wind interactions from the current cycle plus fossil interactions from one, two and three 5.54-year cycles ago.With an eccentricity of >0.9, the >90 solar mass primary (EC-A) and >30 solar mass secondary (EC-B) approach to within 1.5 AU during periastron and recede to nearly 30 AU across apastron. The wind-wind structures move outward driven by the 420 km/s primary wind interacting with the ~3000 km/s secondary wind yielding partially-accelerated compressed primary wind shells that are excited by mid-UV from EC-A and in limited lines of sight, FUV from EC-B.These structures are spectroscopically and spatially resolved by HST's Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph. At critical binary phases, we have mapped the central 2'x2' region in the light of [Fe III] and [Fe II] with spatial resolution of 0.12' and velocity resolution of 40 km/s.1) The bulk of forbidden emission originates from the large cavity northwest of EC and is due to ionization of massive ejecta from the 1840s and 1890s eruptions. The brightest clumps are the Weigelt Blobs C and D, but there are additionally multiple, fainter emission clumps. Weigelt B appears to have faded.2) Three concentric, red-shifted [FeII] arcs expand at ~470 km/s excited by mid-UV of EC-A.3) The structure of primarily blue-shifted [Fe III] emission resembles a Maryland Blue Crab. The claws appear at the early stages of the high-excitation recovery from the periastron passage, expand at radial velocities exceeding the primary wind terminal velocity, 420 km/s and fade as the binary system approaches periastron with the primary wind enveloping the FUV radiation from EC-B.4) All [Fe III] emission faded by late June 2014 and disappeared by August 2, 2014, the beginning of periastron passage.Comparisons to HST/STIS observations between 1998 to 2004.3 indicate long-term fading of [Fe II

  5. Sea ice circulation around the Beaufort Gyre: The changing role of wind forcing and the sea ice state

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Petty, Alek A.; Hutchings, Jennifer K.; Richter-Menge, Jacqueline A.; Tschudi, Mark A.

    2016-05-01

    Sea ice drift estimates from feature tracking of satellite passive microwave data are used to investigate seasonal trends and variability in the ice circulation around the Beaufort Gyre, over the multidecadal period 1980-2013. Our results suggest an amplified response of the Beaufort Gyre ice circulation to wind forcing, especially during the late 2000s. We find increasing anticyclonic ice drift across all seasons, with the strongest trend in autumn, associated with increased ice export out of the southern Beaufort Sea (into the Chukchi Sea). A flux gate analysis highlights consistency across a suite of drift products. Despite these seasonal anticyclonic ice drift trends, a significant anticyclonic wind trend occurs in summer only, driven, in-part, by anomalously anticyclonic winds in 2007. Across all seasons, the ice drift curl is more anticyclonic than predicted from a linear relationship to the wind curl in the 2000s, compared to the 1980s/1990s. The strength of this anticyclonic ice drift curl amplification is strongest in autumn and appears to have increased since the 1980s (up to 2010). In spring and summer, the ice drift curl amplification occurs mainly between 2007 and 2010. These results suggest nonlinear ice interaction feedbacks (e.g., a weaker, more mobile sea ice pack), enhanced atmospheric drag, and/or an increased role of the ocean. The results also show a weakening of the anticyclonic wind and ice circulation since 2010.

  6. Wind Simulation

    2008-12-31

    The Software consists of a spreadsheet written in Microsoft Excel that provides an hourly simulation of a wind energy system, which includes a calculation of wind turbine output as a power-curve fit of wind speed.

  7. Rapid response of the plasmasphere to changes in the solar wind and IMF: Global plasmapause electric field measurements by IMAGE EUV, and simulation with the Rice MSM.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goldstein, J.; Wolf, R. A.; Sandel, B. R.; Forrester, W. T.; Gallager, D. L.; Reiff, P. H.; Spiro, R.

    2002-05-01

    Images recorded by the extreme ultraviolet (EUV) instrument on the IMAGE satellite very often show a well-defined and identifiable plasmapause; dynamic changes in the shape and location of this plasmapause can be tracked by EUV with 10-minute time resolution. For some time, it has been established that the plasmapause moves in response to changes in the global magnetospheric convection field, which in turn is driven by solar wind dynamic pressure and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) orientation. A handful of time histories recorded by EUV show the plasmapause moving radially inward or outward. Comparison of the EUV-observed plasmapause time development with IMF orientation in these cases shows that the plasmapause responds rapidly (within 25 to 30 minutes) to sudden changes in the IMF Bz polarity. A change to southward Bz enhances magnetospheric convection, causing visible inward motion of the nightside plasmapause. A change to northward Bz seems to trigger an overshielding condition, producing outward motion of the nightside plasmapause. In general the plasmapause motion (inward and outward) seems to be concentrated most strongly in the post-midnight sector, with a lesser concentration at pre-noon MLT. This spatial character is consistent with simulation results of the Rice Magnetospheric Specification Model (MSM). The overall picture, from both observation and simulation, is that the plasmapause location is very responsive to changes in the solar wind and IMF conditions.

  8. Chikungunya Virus–Vector Interactions

    PubMed Central

    Coffey, Lark L.; Failloux, Anna-Bella; Weaver, Scott C.

    2014-01-01

    Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is a mosquito-borne alphavirus that causes chikungunya fever, a severe, debilitating disease that often produces chronic arthralgia. Since 2004, CHIKV has emerged in Africa, Indian Ocean islands, Asia, Europe, and the Americas, causing millions of human infections. Central to understanding CHIKV emergence is knowledge of the natural ecology of transmission and vector infection dynamics. This review presents current understanding of CHIKV infection dynamics in mosquito vectors and its relationship to human disease emergence. The following topics are reviewed: CHIKV infection and vector life history traits including transmission cycles, genetic origins, distribution, emergence and spread, dispersal, vector competence, vector immunity and microbial interactions, and co-infection by CHIKV and other arboviruses. The genetics of vector susceptibility and host range changes, population heterogeneity and selection for the fittest viral genomes, dual host cycling and its impact on CHIKV adaptation, viral bottlenecks and intrahost diversity, and adaptive constraints on CHIKV evolution are also discussed. The potential for CHIKV re-emergence and expansion into new areas and prospects for prevention via vector control are also briefly reviewed. PMID:25421891

  9. Reproductive allocation in plants as affected by elevated carbon dioxide and other environmental changes: a synthesis using meta-analysis and graphical vector analysis.

    PubMed

    Wang, Xianzhong; Taub, Daniel R; Jablonski, Leanne M

    2015-04-01

    Reproduction is an important life history trait that strongly affects dynamics of plant populations. Although it has been well documented that elevated carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere greatly enhances biomass production in plants, the overall effect of elevated CO2 on reproductive allocation (RA), i.e., the proportion of biomass allocated to reproductive structures, is little understood. We combined meta-analysis with graphical vector analysis to examine the overall effect of elevated CO2 on RA and how other environmental factors, such as low nutrients, drought and elevated atmospheric ozone (O3), interacted with elevated CO2 in affecting RA in herbaceous plants. Averaged across all species of different functional groups and environmental conditions, elevated CO2 had little effect on RA (-0.9%). RA in plants of different reproductive strategies and functional groups, however, differed in response to elevated CO2. For example, RA in iteroparous wild species decreased by 8%, while RA in iteroparous crops increased significantly (+14%) at elevated CO2. RA was unaffected by CO2 in plants grown with no stress or in low-nutrient soils. RA decreased at elevated CO2 and elevated O3, but increased in response to elevated CO2 in drought-stressed plants, suggesting that elevated CO2 could ameliorate the adverse effect of drought on crop production to some extent. Our results demonstrate that elevated CO2 and other global environmental changes have the potential to greatly alter plant community composition through differential effects on RA of different plant species and thus affect the dynamics of natural and agricultural ecosystems in the future. PMID:25537120

  10. Reproductive allocation in plants as affected by elevated carbon dioxide and other environmental changes: a synthesis using meta-analysis and graphical vector analysis.

    PubMed

    Wang, Xianzhong; Taub, Daniel R; Jablonski, Leanne M

    2015-04-01

    Reproduction is an important life history trait that strongly affects dynamics of plant populations. Although it has been well documented that elevated carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere greatly enhances biomass production in plants, the overall effect of elevated CO2 on reproductive allocation (RA), i.e., the proportion of biomass allocated to reproductive structures, is little understood. We combined meta-analysis with graphical vector analysis to examine the overall effect of elevated CO2 on RA and how other environmental factors, such as low nutrients, drought and elevated atmospheric ozone (O3), interacted with elevated CO2 in affecting RA in herbaceous plants. Averaged across all species of different functional groups and environmental conditions, elevated CO2 had little effect on RA (-0.9%). RA in plants of different reproductive strategies and functional groups, however, differed in response to elevated CO2. For example, RA in iteroparous wild species decreased by 8%, while RA in iteroparous crops increased significantly (+14%) at elevated CO2. RA was unaffected by CO2 in plants grown with no stress or in low-nutrient soils. RA decreased at elevated CO2 and elevated O3, but increased in response to elevated CO2 in drought-stressed plants, suggesting that elevated CO2 could ameliorate the adverse effect of drought on crop production to some extent. Our results demonstrate that elevated CO2 and other global environmental changes have the potential to greatly alter plant community composition through differential effects on RA of different plant species and thus affect the dynamics of natural and agricultural ecosystems in the future.

  11. Wind direction variability in Afternoon and Sunset Turbulence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nilsson, Erik; Lothon, Marie; Lohou, Fabienne; Mahrt, Larry

    2014-05-01

    Understanding wind direction (WD) variability better is important for several reasons. Air pollution models need information about how variable wind direction is in different conditions (Davies and Thomson 1999). Accurate predictions of dispersion are important for human health and safety and allow for adaptation planning (Nagle et al. 2011). Other applications include horizontal diffusion, efficiency and fatigue of wind machines and air-sea interaction (Mahrt 2011). Most studies of wind direction variability have focused on nocturnal conditions because of greater variability in light winds. Modelling WD variability in transition periods when both mean wind speed and variance of the wind components are in a state of change can, however, also be very challenging and has not been the focus of earlier studies. The evening transitioning to the nocturnal boundary layer can play an important role in the diffusion process of pollutants and scalars emitted at surface and transported within the atmosphere. The Boundary Layer Late Afternoon and Sunset Turbulence (BLLAST) field campaign that took place in southern France in June and July 2011 focused on the decaying turbulence of the late afternoon boundary layer and related issues (Lothon et al. 2012). We analyse field measurements from BLLAST to investigate WD variability in the evening transition period. Standard deviations of horizontal wind direction fluctuations in the lowest 60 m of the boundary layer have been examined for dependence on mean wind speed, higher order moments and averaging time. Measurement results are interpreted using measured and idealized probability density functions of horizontal wind vectors. These are also used to develop analytical functions describing how WD variability depends on wind speed, variance and other controlling factors in the atmospheric boundary layer. References: Davies B.M., Thomson D.J., 1999. Comparison of some parameterizations of wind direction variability with observations

  12. Patchiness in wind erosion-deposition patterns in response to a recent state change reversal in the Chihuahuan Desert

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Shifts from shrub-dominated states to grasslands are believed to be irreversible as a result of positive feedbacks between woody plants and soil properties. In the Chihuahuan Desert, mesquite (Prosopis glandulosa) expansion into black grama (Bouteloua eriopoda) grasslands is maintained by wind redis...

  13. Changes in sea-level pressure over South Korea associated with high-speed solar wind events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cho, Il-Hyun; Kwak, Young-Sil; Marubashi, Katsuhide; Kim, Yeon-Han; Park, Young-Deuk; Chang, Heon-Young

    2012-09-01

    We explore a possibility that the daily sea-level pressure (SLP) over South Korea responds to the high-speed solar wind event. This is of interest in two aspects: first, if there is a statistical association this can be another piece of evidence showing that various meteorological observables indeed respond to variations in the interplanetary environment. Second, this can be a very crucial observational constraint since most models proposed so far are expected to preferentially work in higher latitude regions than the low latitude region studied here. We have examined daily solar wind speed V, daily SLP difference ΔSLP, and daily log(BV2) using the superposed epoch analysis in which the key date is set such that the daily solar wind speed exceeds 800 km s-1. We find that the daily ΔSLP averaged out of 12 events reaches its peak at day +1 and gradually decreases back to its normal level. The amount of positive deviation of ΔSLP is +2.5 hPa. The duration of deviation is a few days. We also find that ΔSLP is well correlated with both the speed of solar wind and log(BV2). The obtained linear correlation coefficients and chance probabilities with one-day lag for two cases are r ≃ 0.81 with P > 99.9%, and r ≃ 0.84 with P > 99.9%, respectively. We conclude by briefly discussing future direction to pursue.

  14. Fighting wind shear

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    A “coherent and sustained program” of improved radar detection of weather, pilot training, and better communication between pilots and air controllers can greatly reduce the risk of wind shear to airplanes landing or taking off, according to a National Research Council (NRC) committee.Wind shear, characterized by winds rapidly changing direction and speed, has caused several serious accidents in recent years; among the most notable is the July 8, 1982, crash of a Pan American World Airlines jetliner at the New Orleans International Airport, which killed 153 persons. Following the accident, Congress directed the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to contract with the NRC to study wind shear.

  15. Summertime wind climate in Yerevan: valley wind systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gevorgyan, Artur

    2016-05-01

    1992-2014 wind climatology analysis in Yerevan is presented with particular focus given to the summertime thermally induced valley wind systems. Persistence high winds are observed in Yerevan during July-August months when the study region is strongly affected by a heat-driven plain-plateau circulation. The local valley winds arrive in Yerevan in the evening hours, generally, from 1500 to 1800 UTC, leading to rapid enhancement of wind speeds and dramatic changes in wind direction. Valley-winds significantly impact the local climate of Yerevan, which is a densely populated city. These winds moderate evening temperatures after hot and dry weather conditions observed during summertime afternoons. On the other hand, valley winds result in significantly higher nocturnal temperatures and more frequent occurrence of warm nights (tn90p) in Yerevan due to stronger turbulent mixing of boundary layer preventing strong surface cooling and temperature drop in nighttime and morning hours. The applied WRF-ARW limited area model is able to simulate the key features of the observed spatial pattern of surface winds in Armenia associated with significant terrain channeling, wind curls, etc. By contrast, ECMWF EPS global model fails to capture mesoscale and local wind systems over Armenia. However, the results of statistical verification of surface winds in Yerevan showed that substantial biases are present in WRF 18-h wind forecasts, as well as, the temporal variability of observed surface winds is not reproduced adequately in WRF-ARW model.

  16. Validation Campaigns for Sea Surface Wind and Wind Profile by Ground-Based Doppler Wind Lidar

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Zhishen; Wu, Songhua; Song, Xiaoquan; Liu, Bingyi; Li, Zhigang

    2010-12-01

    According to the research frame of ESA-MOST DRAGON Cooperation Program (ID5291), Chinese partners from Ocean Remote Sensing Institute of Ocean University of China have carried out a serial of campaigns for ground-based lidar validations and atmospheric observations. ORSI/OUC Doppler wind lidar has been developed and deployed to accurately measure wind speed and direction over large areas in real time -- an application useful for ADM-Aeolus VAL/CAL, aviation safety, weather forecasting and sports. The sea surface wind campaigns were successfully accomplished at the Qingdao sailing competitions during the 29th Olympic Games. The lidar located at the seashore near the sailing field, and made a horizontal scan over the sea surface, making the wind measurement in real time and then uploading the data to the local meteorological station every 10 minutes. In addition to the sea surface wind campaigns, ORSI/OUC Doppler wind lidar was deployed on the wind profile observations for the China's Shenzhou 7 spacecraft landing zone weather campaigns in September 2008 in Inner Mongolia steppe. Wind profile was tracked by the mobile Doppler lidar system to help to predict the module's landing site. During above ground tests, validation lidar is tested to be able to provide an independent and credible measurement of radial wind speed, wind profile, 3D wind vector, aerosol- backscattering ratio, aerosol extinction coefficient, extinction-to-backscatter ratio in the atmospheric boundary layer and troposphere, sea surface wind vectors, which will be an independent and very effective validation tool for upcoming ADM-Aeolus project.

  17. Experimental investigation of change of energy of infragavity waves in dependence on spectral characteristics of an irregular wind waves in coastal zone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saprykina, Yana; Divinskii, Boris

    2013-04-01

    An infragravity waves are long waves with periods of 20 - 300 s. Most essential influence of infragarvity waves on dynamic processes is in a coastal zone, where its energy can exceed the energy of wind waves. From practical point of view, the infragravity waves are important, firstly, due to their influence on sand transport processes in a coastal zone. For example, interacting with group structure of wind waves the infragravity waves can define position of underwater bars on sandy coast. Secondly, they are responsible on formation of long waves in harbors. Main source of infragravity waves is wave group structure defined by sub-nonlinear interactions of wind waves (Longuet-Higgins, Stewart, 1962). These infragravity waves are bound with groups of wind waves and propagate with wave group velocity. Another type of infragravity waves are formed in a surf zone as a result of migration a wave breaking point (Symonds, et al., 1982). What from described above mechanisms of formation of infragravity waves prevails, till now it is unknown. It is also unknown how energy of infragravity waves depends on energy of input wind waves and how it changes during nonlinear wave transformation in coastal zone. In our work on the basis of the analysis of data of field experiment and numerical simulation a contribution of infragravity waves in total wave energy in depending on integral characteristics of an irregular wave field in the conditions of a real bathymetry was investigated. For analysis the data of field experiment "Shkorpilovtsy-2007" (Black sea) and data of numerical modeling of Boussinesq type equation with extended dispersion characteristics (Madsen et al., 1997) were used. It was revealed that infragravity waves in a coastal zone are defined mainly by local group structure of waves, which permanently changes due to nonlinearity, shoaling and breaking processes. Free infragravity waves appearing after wave breaking exist together with bound infragravity waves. There are

  18. Association of anthropogenic land use change and increased abundance of the Chagas disease vector Rhodnius pallescens in a rural landscape of Panama.

    PubMed

    Gottdenker, Nicole L; Calzada, José E; Saldaña, Azäel; Carroll, C Ronald

    2011-01-01

    Anthropogenic disturbance is associated with increased vector-borne infectious disease transmission in wildlife, domestic animals, and humans. The objective of this study was to evaluate how disturbance of a tropical forest landscape impacts abundance of the triatomine bug Rhodnius pallescens, a vector of Chagas disease, in the region of the Panama Canal in Panama. Rhodnius pallescens was collected (n = 1,186) from its primary habitat, the palm Attalea butyracea, in five habitat types reflecting a gradient of anthropogenic disturbance. There was a high proportion of palms infested with R. pallescens across all habitat types (range = 77.1-91.4%). Results show that disturbed habitats are associated with increased vector abundance compared with relatively undisturbed habitats. Bugs collected in disturbed sites, although in higher abundance, tended to be in poor body condition compared with bugs captured in protected forest sites. Abundance data suggests that forest remnants may be sources for R. pallescens populations within highly disturbed areas of the landscape.

  19. Evaluating the effects of land use and cover change on the decrease of surface wind speed over China in recent 30 years using a statistical downscaling method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Jian; Zha, Jinlin; Zhao, Deming

    2016-03-01

    The long-term decrease of surface wind speed (SWS) has been revealed by previous studies in China in recent decades, but the reasons for the SWS decrease remain uncertain. In this paper, we evaluated the effects of land use and cover change (LUCC) on the SWS decrease during 1980-2011 over the Eastern China Plain (ECP) region using a combined method of statistical downscaling and observation minus reanalysis data, which was used to improve the climate prediction of general circulation models and to evaluate the influence of LUCC on climate change. To exclude the potential influence of LUCC on SWS observation, a statistical downscaling model (SDM) was established during 1980-1992 because a lower extent of LUCC occurred during this period than in later periods. The skill of the SDM was checked by comparing the results of different predictor combinations. Then, SDM was used to improve the wind speed data at 10 m above the surface in the ERA-Interim reanalysis data (V10m-ERA) during 1993-2011, which decreased the error in the reanalysis wind speed as far as possible. Then, the difference between the station observed SWS (V10m-OBV) and the downscaled SWS (V10m-SDM) during 1993-2011 (SWSD) was considered the quantitative estimation of the influence of the LUCC on SWS in this period. The V10m-SDM can capture both the large-scale and local characteristics in the observation, and their patterns are very similar. V10m-SDM has better performance in the spatial-temporal changes than does V10m-ERA with respect to V10m-OBV. The impact of LUCC on the SWS was pronounced, the SWSD was -0.24 m s-1 in 1993, and the SWSD reached -0.56 m s-1 in 2011. LUCC could induce a 0.17 m s-1 wind speed decrease per 10 year in the ECP region during 1993-2011. Furthermore, each 10 % rise of the urbanization rate could cause an approximately 0.12 m s-1 decrease in wind speed. Additionally, pressure-gradient force was eliminated as the primary cause of the observed long-term decrease of SWS in ECP by

  20. Rotations with Rodrigues' Vector

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pina, E.

    2011-01-01

    The rotational dynamics was studied from the point of view of Rodrigues' vector. This vector is defined here by its connection with other forms of parametrization of the rotation matrix. The rotation matrix was expressed in terms of this vector. The angular velocity was computed using the components of Rodrigues' vector as coordinates. It appears…

  1. Emotional tone of ontario newspaper articles on the health effects of industrial wind turbines before and after policy change.

    PubMed

    Deignan, Benjamin; Hoffman-Goetz, Laurie

    2015-01-01

    Newspapers are often a primary source of health information for the public about emerging technologies. Information in newspapers can amplify or attenuate readers' perceptions of health risk depending on how it is presented. Five geographically distinct wind energy installations in Ontario, Canada were identified, and newspapers published in their surrounding communities were systematically searched for articles on health effects from industrial wind turbines from May 2007 to April 2011. The authors retrieved 421 articles from 13 community, 2 provincial, and 2 national newspapers. To measure the emotional tone of the articles, the authors used a list of negative and positive words, informed from previous studies as well as from a random sample of newspaper articles included in this study. The majority of newspaper articles (64.6%, n = 272) emphasized negative rather than positive/neutral tone, with community newspapers publishing a higher proportion of negative articles than provincial or national newspapers, χ(2)(2) = 15.1, p < .001. Articles were more likely to be negative when published 2 years after compared with 2 years before provincial legislation to reduce dependence on fossil fuels (the Green Energy Act), χ(2)(3) = 9.7, p < .05. Repeated public exposure to negative newspaper content may heighten readers' health risk perceptions about wind energy.

  2. Changes in quality of life and perceptions of general health before and after operation of wind turbines.

    PubMed

    Jalali, Leila; Bigelow, Philip; McColl, Stephen; Majowicz, Shannon; Gohari, Mahmood; Waterhouse, Ryan

    2016-09-01

    Ontario is Canada's provincial leader in wind energy, with over 4000 MW of installed capacity supplying approximately five percent of the province's electricity demand. Wind energy is now one of the fastest-growing sources of renewable power in Canada and many other countries. However, its possible negative impact on population health, as a new source of environmental noise, has raised concerns for people living in proximity to wind turbines (WTs). The aims of this study were to assess the effect of individual differences and annoyance on the self-reported general health and health-related quality of life (QOL) of nearby residents, using a pre- and post-exposure design. Prospective cohort data were collected before and after WT operations, from the individuals (n = 43) in Ontario, Canada. General health and QOL metrics were measured using standard scales, such as SF12, life satisfaction scales developed by Diener (SWLS) and the Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS-SWL). The mean values for the Mental Component Score of SF12 (p = 0.002), SWLS (p < 0.001), and CCHS-SWL (p = 0.044) significantly worsened after WT operation for those participants who had a negative attitude to WTs, who voiced concerns about property devaluation, and/or who reported being visually or noise annoyed.

  3. Changes in quality of life and perceptions of general health before and after operation of wind turbines.

    PubMed

    Jalali, Leila; Bigelow, Philip; McColl, Stephen; Majowicz, Shannon; Gohari, Mahmood; Waterhouse, Ryan

    2016-09-01

    Ontario is Canada's provincial leader in wind energy, with over 4000 MW of installed capacity supplying approximately five percent of the province's electricity demand. Wind energy is now one of the fastest-growing sources of renewable power in Canada and many other countries. However, its possible negative impact on population health, as a new source of environmental noise, has raised concerns for people living in proximity to wind turbines (WTs). The aims of this study were to assess the effect of individual differences and annoyance on the self-reported general health and health-related quality of life (QOL) of nearby residents, using a pre- and post-exposure design. Prospective cohort data were collected before and after WT operations, from the individuals (n = 43) in Ontario, Canada. General health and QOL metrics were measured using standard scales, such as SF12, life satisfaction scales developed by Diener (SWLS) and the Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS-SWL). The mean values for the Mental Component Score of SF12 (p = 0.002), SWLS (p < 0.001), and CCHS-SWL (p = 0.044) significantly worsened after WT operation for those participants who had a negative attitude to WTs, who voiced concerns about property devaluation, and/or who reported being visually or noise annoyed. PMID:27321878

  4. Emotional tone of ontario newspaper articles on the health effects of industrial wind turbines before and after policy change.

    PubMed

    Deignan, Benjamin; Hoffman-Goetz, Laurie

    2015-01-01

    Newspapers are often a primary source of health information for the public about emerging technologies. Information in newspapers can amplify or attenuate readers' perceptions of health risk depending on how it is presented. Five geographically distinct wind energy installations in Ontario, Canada were identifie